THE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER CONTINUES AND WILL END ON LBMA/OTIC OPTION EXPIRY DAY (JAN 31/2122) GOLD CLOSED DOWN $36,15 TO $1794.20//SILVER DOWN $1.13 TO $24.67//GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY INCREASES TO 17.7916 TONNES/SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JANUARY RISES TO 15.130 MILLION OZ//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE MANDATE UPDATES/VACCINE IMPACT//ALEX BERENSON:A MUST READ//DENMARK AND HOLLAND NOW DITCH THE RESTRICTIONS, AND FINLAND MAY FOLLOW//USA MILITARY RESULTS FROM THE VACCINE BROUGHT TO THE ATTENTION OF SEN RON JOHNSON//RUSSIA VS USA DE ESCALATES AS PROMISED//CHINA ON THE WARPATH FOR ANYBODY RICH//FDA ASKS FOR A DELAY IN THEIR CASE OF PROVIDING 55,000 PAGES PER YEAR WITH PFIZER JOINING IN ON THE CASE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

GOLD; DOWN $36.15 to $1794.20


SILVER: $22.67  DOWN 113 CENTS

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD: 1796.75.. 

SILVER: $22.76

Bitcoin:  morning price: 35,246 down 1491

Bitcoin: afternoon price: 36,093 down 644

Platinum price: closing down $24.45 to $1023.35

Palladium price; closing up  $17.25  at $2357.10

END

end

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comex notices//JPMorgan  notices filed  COMEX//NOTICES: 0/56

FILED  56/// EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: JANUARY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,829.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/26/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 01/28/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


118 H MACQUARIE FUT 33
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 56
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
880 C CITIGROUP 12
905 C ADM 8


TOTAL: 56 56
MONTH TO DATE: 5,707


NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  JAN. CONTRACT: 56 NOTICE(S) FOR 5600 OZ  (0.1741  TONNES)

total notices so far:  5707 contracts for 570,700 oz (17.7511 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

86 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  430,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 3022  :  for 15,110,000  oz

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $36.15

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS): STRANGE ANOTHER STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD. 

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

CLOSING INVENTORY: 1014.26 TONNES/

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 113 CENTS:/:  NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY SLV/ TONIGHT: 535.003 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI  ROSE BY A SMALL 92 CONTRACTS TO 151,871  AND RESTS CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND  THIS SMALL GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPANIED WITH OUR SMALL $0.07 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.07) BUT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS  AS WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 362 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES .

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A  ZERO ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 10.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 220,000 OZ QUEUE. JUMP //NEW STANDING 15.130 MILLION OZ         V)    SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN.

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  120

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  JAN. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 18 days, total  contracts: :  15,083 contracts or 75.415 million oz  OR 4.189 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (838 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 15,083 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 75.415 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 8 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 92 DESPITE OUR  7 CENT LOSS SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  TINY  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF  150 CONTRACTS( 150 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 150 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JAN OF 10.505 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 220,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //NEW STANDING 15.130, MILLION OZ//  .. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 242 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 1.210 MILLION OZ//

 WE HAD 86 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  430,000 OZ

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 18,871 TO 553,207 AND FURTHER FROM  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -1099  CONTRACTS

.

THE  GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $21.60//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST  HAD INITIAL COMEX SPREADER LIQUIDATION FOLLOWED BY  HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AS THE TOTAL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 11,744 CONTRACTS…WITH THE ENTIRE COMEX LOSS COMING FROM SPREADER LIQUIDATION. 

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JAN AT 3.5614 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5300 OZ QUEUE. JUMP //NEW STANDING: 17.7912 TONNES      

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $21.60 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 11,744  OI CONTRACTS (36.53 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALLED A STRONG SIZED  7127 CONTRACTS:

FOR FEB 7127  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO//TOTAL:7127 

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 554,306.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,744, WITH 18,871 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 7127 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,744 CONTRACTS OR 36.53TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (7127) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (18,871): TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 11,744 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JAN. AT 3.7262 TONNES//FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  100 OZ QUEUE JUMP .//NEW STANDING 17.7912 TONNES  3)ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS ENTIRE COMEX LOSS DUE TO INITATION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION,4)   HUGE SIZED COMEX OI. LOSS 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2021 INCLUDING TODAY

JAN

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN : 68,629 CONTRACTS OR 6,862,900 oz OR 213.47  TONNES 18 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3829 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 18 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 213.47 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  213,47/3550 x 100% TONNES  6.01% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO DATE 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           145.12 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   213.46 TONNES //

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 92 CONTRACTS TO 151,871  AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  4 1/2 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 150 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 150  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  150 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 92 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 150 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 242 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.210 MILLION  OZ, 

OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.07 LOSS IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 61.42 PTS OR 1.78%      //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 482.90 PTS OR 1.99% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 841.03 PTS OR 3.11%      //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1,84%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.3674    /Oil UP TO 88.05 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 90.71 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED      //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN  AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3674. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3728: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN AND OFF SHORE TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR

A)NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 18,871 CONTRACTS  AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $21.60 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP (7127 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. LOOKS LIKE OUR BANKERS ARE FINALLY BAILING OUT

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 7127 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  DEC  :  0  & FEB. 7127 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  7127 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED 11,744 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 7127 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 18,871  CONTRACTS..THE ENTIRE COMEX LOSS WAS DUE TO THE COMMENCEMENT OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN   (17.7912),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $21.60) BUT THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS, EVEN THOUGH THE TOTAL LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES REGISTERED A HUGE 36.53 TONNES ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JAN (17.7916 TONNES)…THE ENTIRE LOSS AT THE COMEX WAS DUE TO THE COMMENCEMENT OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION

WE HAD  – 1099 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 11,744 CONTRACTS OR 1,174,400 OZ OR 36.53 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 392,866 /// good

Confirmed volume yesterday: 441,185 contracts  very good (spreaders)

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JAN ’22 COMEX GOLD //JAN 27

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 7551.324 ozBrinksDelaware 4 kilobars//Brinks                                                                                                                            
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznilOZ            
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz      nil                                                
No of oz served (contracts) today56  notice(s)
5600 OZ
0.1741 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)13 contracts  
1300 oz
 0.0404 TONNES  
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month5707 notices 
570700 OZ
17.7511 TONNES  
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

xxx oz

For today:

No dealer deposit 0

No dealer withdrawal 0

0 customer deposit

total deposit: nil oz

2 customer withdrawals

i) Out of BRINKS:  128.6 0z (4 KILOBARS)

ii) Out of Delaware 7422.724 oz

total withdrawals:  7551.324 oz  oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 1

JPMorgan//dealer to customer account  9163.035 oz   (285 kilobars)

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JANUARY.

For the front month of JANUARY we have an oi of 69 stand for JANUARY GAINING 53 contracts.  We had 0 notices filed on WEDNESDAY, so we GAINED 53 contracts or an additional 5300 oz will  stand for

gold in this very non active delivery month of January. 

FEBRUARY LOST 41,557 CONTRACTS TO 56,846 (THE MAJORITY OF THE LOSS WAS SPREADER LIQUIDATION)

March GAINED 323 contracts to stand at 3622..

We had 56 notice(s) filed today for 5600  oz FOR THE JAN 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. WE HAVE TWO MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE JAN 31/2022.


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 56  contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and  0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0  notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JAN /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5707) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (JAN: 69 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  56 x 100 oz per contract equals 572,000 OZ  OR 17.7912 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of JAN. (numbers corrected from yesterday) 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JAN contract month:

No of notices filed so far (5707) x 100 oz+   (69)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (56} x 100 oz} which equals 572,000 oz standing OR 17.7912 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of JAN. 

We GAINED 53 contracts or an additional  5300 oz of gold will stand for metal on this side of the pond.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  17.7912 TONNES  (HUGE FOR A JANUARY DELIVERY MONTH)

IF THIS HOLDS TO THE END OF THE MONTH, THIS WILL BE THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED GOLD STANDING FOR A JANUARY, GENERALLY A VERY POOR DELIVERY MONTH.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

157,392.690, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  4.89 TONNES

125,410.592 PLEDGED  MANFRA 2.90 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690

288,481,604, oz  JPM No 2  8.97 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged  Brinks/27,96 TONNES

12,249,333 oz International Delaware:  0..3810 tonne

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold:  1,555,310.092 oz                                     48.376 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIZ GOLD AT THE COMEX: 33,571,281.031  OZ (1044,20 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,838,520.863 OZ (492.64 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,571,281.031 OZ  (546.54 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 16,015,971.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  498.16 tonnes

END

JANUARY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//JAN 27

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory130,110.850  oz
 Brinks
CNT
                                                                                                                        
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory9891.67OZ
Manfra                   
Deposits to the Customer Inventorynil oz                                                                                   
No of oz served today (contracts)86 CONTRACT(S)
(430,000  OZ) 
No of oz to be served (notices)4 contracts
 (20,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)3022 contracts 
(15,110,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 1 deposits into the dealer

i) Into Manfra:  9891.67 oz

total dealer deposits:  9891.67       oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 0 deposits

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 185.232 million oz/354.385 million =52.28% of comex 

ii) Comex withdrawals: 2

a) BRINKS:  129,069.95 OZ

b) out of CNT:  1,040.900 oz

total withdrawal 130,110,850 oz

we had 3 adjustments:

a) dealer to customer

i) JPMorgan  183,287,000 oz

ii) Loomis: 5241.640 oz

b) customer to dealer

i) Manfra:  172,647.206 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 82.455 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 354.385 MILLION OZ

TOTAL NO OF CONTRACTS SERVED UPON THIS MONTH: 2838 CONTRACTS FOR 14,190,000 OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JANUARY

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY: 1 NOTICES OR 5,000 OZ

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JAN//2022 OI: 90 CONTRACTS LOSING  36 contracts on the day

We had 80 notices filed for WEDNESDAY so we GAINED 44 contracts or 220,000 additional oz will  stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of January.

FOR FEB WE HAD A GAIN OF 294 CONTRACTS RISING TO 871

FOR MARCH WE HAD A LOSS OF 1634 CONTRACTS UP TO 113,228 CONTRACTS.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 86 for 430,000 oz

Comex volumes: 82,144// est. volume today//good

Comex volume: confirmed YESTERDAY: 60,909 contracts (FAIR)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  3022 x 5,000 oz =. 15,110,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN (90) and the number of notices served upon today 86 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JAN./2021 contract month: 3022 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JAN (90)  – number of notices served upon today (86) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JAN contract month equates 15,130,000 oz. .

We GAINED 44 contracts or an additional 220,000 oz will  stand for delivery on this side of the pond.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

GLD

JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.15//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.60 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.10 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $10.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES

JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $10.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN UNBELIEVABLE DEPOSIT OF 27.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES

JAN 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.86 TONNES

JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $.20 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.86 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $29.65 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 5.27 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 981.44 TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.25//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 14/ WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.65//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $19.25/A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 976.21 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.08 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $8.15//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWLA OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.83 TONNES

JAN 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $35.30//A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .32 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 979.99 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $10.30: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.31 TONNES

Jan 4/WITH GOLD UP $14.00//A HUGE CHANGE OF 4.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 980.31 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD UP $14.05 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 30/WITH GOLD UP $7.75 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 975.66 TONNES

DEC 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.63 TONNES 

DEC 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.63 TONNES.

DEC 23/WITH GOLD UP $9.85 TODAY//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.94 TONNES FROM THE GLD/// INVENTORY RESTS AT 973.63 TONNES

DEC 22/WITH GOLD UP $12.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.57 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.05 TODAY, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 978.57 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.65 TODAY; A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.37 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.20 TONNES

DEC 17/WITH GOLD UP $7.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 977.20 TONNES

CLOSING INVENTORY: 1014.26 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SLV

JAN 27/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.311 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ/

.JAN 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.8 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 532.692 MILLION OZ//.

JAN 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.792 MILLION OZ

JAN 20/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.998 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.792 MILLION OZ

JAN 19/WITH SILVER UP 71 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.942 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 525.804 MILLION OZ

JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS TODAY: TWO HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: 2 WITHDRAWALS OF 1.11 MILLION OZ AND 1.424 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 527.246 MILLION OZ//

JAN 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.780 MILLION OZ//

JAN 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 832,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 529.780 MILLION OZ

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//

JAN 11/WITH SILVER  UP 33 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ/.

JAN 10/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//.

JAN 7/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ//.

JAN 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL PF 226,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.612 MILLION OZ?/

JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.838 MILLION OZ//

JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.838 MILLION OZ//

JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 45 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.219 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 530.838 MILLION OZ//

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.057 MILLION OZ//

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.057 MILLION OZ//

DEC30/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.624 MILLILON OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.057 MILLION OZ//

DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681 MILLION OZ/

DEC 28/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.682 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681 MILLION OZ//

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681

DEC 23/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY:A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 537.681 MILLION OZ//

DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 538.883 MILLION OZ/

DEC 21/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.728 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.085 MILLION OZ

DEC 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 538.282 MILLION OZ

DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 538.282 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY:  535.003 MILLION OZ

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: This Is Going To Be Stagflation

 THURSDAY, JAN 27, 2022 – 08:51 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Peter Schiff was a guest on the Wharton Business Daily podcast produced by the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Peter talked about inflation and how it will impact the US economy moving forward. He said ultimately, we’re heading toward stagflation.

Peter said inflation has been a problem for a long time. A lot of people just weren’t cognizant of it.

A lot of the inflation was in financial assets, so, stock prices were going up because of inflation, bond prices, real estate prices. That didn’t bother people because they thought inflation was making them rich.”

Nevertheless, consumer prices were also going up. But the government was able to keep that hidden with a rigged CPI formula that understates inflation. But in 2021, the price increases got so large, the CPI couldn’t hide them.

Based on CPI, prices were up about 7% last year. But if we still measured prices using the same type of CPI that we had in the 1970s or 1980s, prices rose closer to 15%.

Which is why it’s very disingenuous when the politicians tell us, ‘Hey, you know, it’s not that bad. It was way worse in the 70s.’ It wasn’t worse. Last year was a worse year than any year in the 1970s if we measure it the same way we measured prices in the 70s. So, it’s a big problem. And unfortunately, it’s going to get much worse.”

Peter said he thinks 2022 will be worse than 2021 when it comes to inflation. He said he believes a lot of businesses were reluctant to pass on rising costs to their customers. The fact that producer prices rose much more than consumer prices bears this out.

I think that businesses that were reluctant to raise prices last year are going to raise them this year. They have to repair their margins and make up for lost ground. So, I think you’re going to see catch-up. Plus, the pressure on prices is going to continue because the Federal Reserve continues to create inflation.”

Despite talk of tightening, the Fed continues to run loose monetary policy. It continues to run quantitative easing. Interest rates remain at zero. Meanwhile, the US government is spending a lot of money. The government spent over half-a-trillion dollars in December alone.

But we’re not producing. We have record trade deficits. A lot of Americans have left the workforce.”

And the response to the pandemic was one of the most inflationary policies ever pursued. The government ordered people to stay home and not work, and then handed them thousands of dollars to spend on things they weren’t producing.

We threw gasoline on the inflation fire because we pushed down supply while we were stimulating demand – the worst possible policy mistake. And I was criticizing it in real-time as the government and Fed were making it. And now, we’re paying the price for that with these big increases in consumer prices.”

Peter emphasized that the economy didn’t need to be stimulated.

Unfortunately, we needed to be in a recession. Because, if people are not working and not producing, they have to reduce their consumption. We can’t just keep spending money as if we were still making stuff. So, if we’re going to stay at home, to try to deal with COVID, it meant that people had to spend less. But the government didn’t want that. The government wanted people staying home but continuing to spend money as if they still went to work. And that was the problem. And again, we’re paying for it now.”

The Fed has committed to taking on inflation by raising interest rates three to four times in 2022. Peter said even if they start with a 50 basis-point increase, it’s still inadequate. In order to bend the inflation curve, you have to get out in front of it. The Fed needs to go from easy money to tight money. That means interest rates need to be above the level of inflation.

If the inflation rate is seven, you need eight, nine, ten percent. So, what the Fed is talking about doing – going to 1% or 2% – that’s nothing!”

When Alan Greenspan cut interest rates after the dot-com bubble burst, the lowest they got was 1%.

That was very stimulative monetary policy. That is still stimulative. You can’t fight inflation by throwing gasoline on it. We need tight money. But the problem is we can’t afford tight money now because thanks to the Fed keeping interest rates so low for so long, everybody in America borrowed so much money that if interest rates rise to fight inflation, the whole economy collapses, and we have a much worse financial crisis than 2008, and nobody gets a bailout. So, because of that reality, inflation is here to stay. Americans are going to have to live with it.”

So, how will that impact the economy moving forward? Peter said, “The economy is a mess.”

I think inflation is ultimately going to push the economy into a recession as consumers are forced to spend more and more of what they have on food and energy and insurance and just the basics. They’re not going to have discretionary spending. And when they have to cut back, that means a lot of other people lose their incomes, lose their jobs. This is going to be stagflation.”

Peter said he thinks it will be worse than the 1970s with a weaker economy and even higher inflation. Worst of all, the policymakers won’t be able to do anything about it. Paul Volker finally broke inflation by pushing interest rates to 20%.

We don’t have the ability to do that today. We could afford to pay 20% interest on our debt in 1980 because we hardly had any debt.”

END

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,James  RICKARDS

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

Global Silver Coin Sales Reach All-Time Record High In 2021

831

Investors bought a record amount of silver bullion coins as central banks continued to prop-up the economy and financial system. This looks to continue in 2022 as…

by Steve St Angelo of SRSrocco Report

Investors bought a record amount of silver bullion coins as the Fed, and central banks continued to prop up the global economy and financial system with massive asset purchases in 2021.  And, this looks to continue into 2022 as the U.S. Mint Silver Eagle sales have already reached 4.4 million in January.

According to the 2021 World Silver Survey, Silver Coin sales were estimated to be 147.7 million oz in 2021.  However, they have revised their total silver bar and coin demand higher for 2021, thus I believe silver coin sales topped 150 million oz (Moz).

Interestingly, the 150 Moz figure is that several countries experienced a significant increase in demand for their official silver coin sales last year due to higher premiums for U.S. Silver Eagles and Canadian Maple Leaf coins.  Investors turned to the South African Krugerrands, Austrian Philharmonics, and U.K. Britannia’s, selling for much lower premiums.  We won’t know the exact sales totals of these official coins until the 2022 World Silver Survey is released in May.

Breaking News… CoinNews.net just published that the Australian Perth Mint Silver bullion sales for 2021 also reached a record high of 19 Moz.  It seems as if the official mints around the world are seeing record demand for silver coins.

Interestingly, Silver Eagle sales were slightly lower in 2021 to 28.2 Moz versus 30 Moz in 2020.  For whatever reason, the U.S. Mint sold very few Silver Eagles in November and zero for December.  But, I believe we will see continued strong Silver Eagle sales this year if the U.S. Mint can access enough silver blanks to meet demand.

Also, the Royal Canadian Mint reported Q1-Q3 2021 total Silver Maple and Bar sales were 27.8 Moz.  So, I would estimate Canadian Silver Maple and coin sales will likely surpass 35-36 Moz in 2021, up from 33.3 Moz in 2020.

Lastly, it seems investors are demanding more Silver Coins over Silver Bars.  The World Silver Survey estimated last year 148 Moz of Silver Coin demand versus only 105 Moz for Silver Bar.  The advantage of Official Silver Coins is that most of the public would recognize the coins are 1 oz, and because they are smaller, they are easier to trade or sell than the larger 10-100 oz bars.

DISCLAIMER: SRSrocco Report provides intelligent, well-researched information to those with interest in the economy and investing. Neither SRSrocco Report nor any of its owners, officers, directors, employees, subsidiaries, affiliates, licensors, service and content providers, producers or agents provide financial advisement services. Neither do we work miracles. We provide our content and opinions to readers only so that they may make informed investment decisions. Under no circumstances should you interpret opinions which SRSrocco Report or Steve St. Angelo offers on this or any other website as financial advice.

Check back for new articles and updates at the SRSrocco Report.

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES/

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 6.3674

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3739

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 482.99 PTS OR 1.99%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN  841.03 PTS OR 3.11%

3. Europe stocks  ALL MIXED   

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  97.07/Euro FALLS TO 1.1162-

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.159/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 115.74/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 88.05 and Brent: 90.71-

3f Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED UP//  OFF- SHORE  UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO -.0.036%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 1.32% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 0.68%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.37: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 1.68

3k Gold at $1807.20 silver at: 23.08   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 114/100 in roubles/dollar AT 78.01

3m oil into the 88 dollar handle for WTI and 90 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 115.24 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9308– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0390 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.843 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.120 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 13.63

Futures Swing Wildly In Overnight Rollercoaster Session Before Settling Flat

 THURSDAY, JAN 27, 2022 – 07:52 AM

After a rollercoaster overnight session, which saw S&P futures tumble as much as 2%, dropping as low as 4,260 following Powell’s hawkish comments, futures have recovered and briefly traded in the green while European stocks are still red though trading near session highs as traders spooked by the Fed’s comments started digging for bargains. At 7:20am ET (incredibly illiquid) emini S&P futures were flat at 4,341, Dow futures were up 0.1% or 36 points and Nasdaq futures swung the most and after dropping as much as 2.2% turned green some 0.5% higher or 75 points after Bill Ackman revealed late on Wednesday he had purchased 3.1 million Netflix shares.

The yield curve shrank to the flattest since 2020 after the meeting. Two-year Treasuries extended declines, though longer-dated ones rebounded. The dollar extended gains. Oil fluctuated as calm reigned for crypto. Expectations of Fed tightening sent the policy-sensitive U.S. two-year yield to 1.208%, levels last reached in February 2020. The benchmark 10-year yield slipped slightly to 1.835% having hit a high of 1.88% on Wednesday. The spread between the 10 and two-year bond yields fell to its narrowest since late 2020 as investors priced in a faster pace of rate rises in the medium-term. This in turn helped the dollar to its highest since June 2020 and sent the euro to its lowest in 19-months. The single currency dropped 0.5% to $1.1182 .

In U.S. premarket trading, Tesla fell after signaling supply chain troubles, while Intel slid as it warned on profit margins. Qualtrics International on the other hand, jumped after posting a better-than-expected revenue forecast. Netflix gained as much as 4.8% after hedge fund founder Bill Ackman said he has acquired more than 3.1 million shares in the online video streaming giant.  Meanwhile, Teradyne plunged 18% in premarket after the chip-testing firm’s first-quarter earnings forecast fell short of estimates due to to supply constraints and a drop in demand stemming from a slow transition at one of its customers. Other notable premarket movers:

  • DouYu (DOYU US) shares jump 10% in U.S. premarket trading after Reuters reports that Tencent plans to take the live game streaming company private, citing people with knowledge of the matter.
  • Teradyne (TER US) shares plunge 18% in U.S. premarket trading after the chip-testing firm’s 1Q earnings forecast fell short of estimates due to to supply constraints and a drop in demand stemming from a slow transition at one of its customers.
  • Levi Strauss (LEVI US) shares surge 8.3% in premarket trading after the jeans maker gave an outlook for full-year net revenue that exceeded estimates. Analysts say momentum appears to have carried through to the start of 2022.
  • Qualtrics (XM US) shares gain 11% in U.S. premarket trading after the software company gave a revenue forecast for 1Q that beat estimates. Analysts were positive on the company’s organic billings growth and said guidance is strong.

U.S. stocks have swung violently this week as investors worried about the fallout from an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve on a broader economic recovery and company earnings. Overvalued technology-related stocks have been hit particularly hard since higher interest rates mean a bigger discount for the present value of their future profits, hurting growth stocks with the highest valuations and boosting cheap or so-called value shares.

“The hawkish tone last night from the Fed has led to a renewed rotation into value names but given the magnitude of some of the moves we have now seen in growth stocks year-to-date, we believe the opportunity set is again getting more exciting for growth investors,” said Marcus Morris-Eyton, portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors. “We expect the market to gradually return to fundamentals now the Fed meeting has passed, and the earnings season moves into full swing.”

Investors expect the speed at which the Fed tightens policy to be the major determinant of risk sentiment in the coming months, although the U.S. central bank has said how quickly it hikes will depend on economic data and especially inflation.

“Powell (is) not committing to the size or the frequency of rate hikes and also the timing of the balance sheet reduction. I think that buys him a bit of wiggle room as to how quickly and with what velocity he wants to normalise monetary policy in the U.S.” said David Chao, global market strategist, Asia Pacific (ex-Japan) at Invesco.

European equities slump at the open but most indexes gradually fade losses. Euro Stoxx 50 is only down 0.6%, having traded off as much as 1.8%. Spain’s IBEX outperforms, turning an initial 1.5% drop into a gain of as much as 0.8%. Banks and autos are the best performers.

Weeks of fretting over the Fed’s plan to combat inflation with higher interest rates is coming to fruition as Asian stock markets tumble into bear markets and technical corrections: Bear Markets Show Pain Across AsiaEquities as Fed Hikes Near; China Stocks Enter Bear Market as Yuan Tumbles Most in 7 Months. Bonds tumbled across Asia after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s latest hawkish pivot, with Australian and New Zealand benchmark yields spiking to fresh highs: Fed Fallout Sends Sovereign Yields Soaring to Highs Across Asia
China high-yield dollar bonds fell 1-3 cents on the dollar , according to credit traders, after the market notched its longest winning streak since July: China Junk Dollar Bonds Set for First Drop in More Than a Week. Chinese authorities are considering a proposal to dismantle China Evergrande Group by selling the bulk of its assets: China Weighs Dismantling Evergrande to Contain Debt Crisis. The People’s Bank of China’s newfound autonomy may prove to be an unlikely source of support for the recovery: China Rushes to Deliver Stimulus as Fed Pulls Back in New Era.

Investors globally have dumped riskier assets in 2022 and sought safety as they brace for the end of nearly two years of exceptionally cheap and plentiful cash.

“What cheap money has done is provide a safety blanket from bad news,” said Jane Foley, an analyst at Rabobank. “But as this comfort blanket is pulled away, investors will be more exposed and I suspect this will create a more volatile environment for asset prices.”

In rates, after extending post-FOMC drop late Wednesday, Treasuries began clawing their way back during Asia session and European morning led by long-end tenors, further flattening the curve. Ten-year Treasury yields slipped three basis points to 1.83% after surging to near a two-year high in the previous session, while the 2-year yield rose by 4bps to 1.19%. Yields are richer by ~5bp across 30-year sector, flattening 5s30s spread by ~3bp to tightest since March 2020; 2s10s spread is flatter by ~6bp and lowest since November 2020; the 10-year yield ~1.83% has retraced about half Wednesday’s surge to 1.876%. The ED market has boosted rate hike expectations to nearly 5 by December.

Treasury auction cycle concludes with $53b 7-year note sale at 1pm ET, following strong demand for 2- and 5-year sales earlier this week. Fed- dated OIS price in ~30bp of rate hikes for March meeting and 117bp by December after Wednesday’s post-FOMC front-end selloff. The hawkish central-bank pricing spills over into Europe: ECB-dated OIS briefly factor in a 20bps move and BOE OIS ~120bps of tightening by year end. Bunds and gilts drop, curves bear-flattening playing catch up to USTs, which bull-flatten away from their post-FOMC extremes. FOMC-dated OIS rates briefly factor in a full five hikes this year. Peripheral spreads tighten, short-end Italy and Spain outperform.

In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot trades close to session highs, adding 0.3%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose for a fourth consecutive day as the greenback strengthened against all of its Group-of-10 peers. Hedging costs in major currencies remain relatively low, even as realized steepens and key risk events are captured by the front- end. The euro fell below $1.12 for the first time since November as traders increase bets on higher borrowing costs, with money markets now expecting five Federal Reserve interest-rate increases this year. Bunds extended a decline, sending the German 10-year yield to a one-week high as money markets bet on a faster pace of ECB policy tightening. The Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone held up best against the greenback as oil prices consolidated near a seven-year high and the pound was also among the better-performing G-10 currencies as markets rushed to price in another four interest-rate rises from the Bank of England. Other risk sensitive currencies, led by the New Zealand dollar, were the worst performers. Government bonds dropped in Australia and New Zealand, while the Australian dollar fell to a seven-week low and the New Zealand dollar slid for a sixth consecutive day to touch $0.6596, the lowest since November 2020. New Zealand’s debt auctions drew strong demand even after local data showed inflation quickened to the highest in more than three decades.

In commodities, crude futures drift back into the green. WTI adds 0.2%, rising back above $87; Brent reclaims $90. U.S. officials say they are in talks with major energy-producing countries and companies worldwide over a possible diversion of supplies to Europe if Russia invades Ukraine, although the White House said it faces challenges finding alternative sources of energy supplies. Spot gold trades off worst levels after finding support near $1,810/oz. Most base metals are in the green with LME tin up over 1%. Crypto markets declined amid broad weakness in risk assets during APAC hours; in-fitting with broader performance, crypto has staged a modest recovery during the European session. Bitcoin was last trading at $36,500.

Looking at the day ahead now, data releases include the US GDP reading for Q4, along with the weekly initial jobless claims, December’s pending home sales, durable goods orders, core capital goods orders, and January’s Kansas City Fed manufacturing index. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Scicluna, whilst earnings releases include Apple, Visa, Mastercard, Comcast, Danaher and McDonald’s.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,351.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 465.34
  • MXAP down 2.4% to 182.01
  • MXAPJ down 2.1% to 598.93
  • Nikkei down 3.1% to 26,170.30
  • Topix down 2.6% to 1,842.44
  • Hang Seng Index down 2.0% to 23,807.00
  • Shanghai Composite down 1.8% to 3,394.25
  • Sensex down 1.2% to 57,180.21
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.8% to 6,838.28
  • Kospi down 3.5% to 2,614.49
  • German 10Y yield little changed at -0.03%
  • Euro down 0.4% to $1.1198
  • Brent Futures down 0.3% to $89.72/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,814.46
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.35% to 96.81

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Spain’s labor market continued to improve in the fourth quarter, with the unemployment rate falling to the lowest since 2008, according to figures released by the nation’s statistics office, INE
  • Norway’s $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world’s biggest, returned 14.5% in 2021, equivalent to about $176 billion, after stocks rose.
  • Turkey’s central bank raised its inflation projections after a collapse in the currency pushed consumer price growth to its highest in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 19-year rule

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

In Asia, APAC markets sold off with risk appetite hit as the region digested the hawkish FOMC meeting. Nikkei 225 (-3.1%) suffered losses of more than 3% and with the index down more than 10% from January highs. KOSPI (-3.5%) was mired by another North Korean launch and with Samsung Electronics dwindling post- earnings. Hang Seng (-1.9%) and declined amid a slowdown in Chinese Industrial Profits andShanghai Comp. (-1.7%) with the CSI 300 Index slipping into bear market territory after falling 20% from its February 2021 peak, while developers are hit including Evergrande as investors will have to wait six months for an initial restructuring plan.

Top Asian News

  • China Fintech PingPong Is Said to Weigh $1 Billion Hong Kong IPO
  • Tencent Plans to Take U.S.-Listed DouYu Private: Reuters
  • China Stocks Enter Bear Market as Yuan Tumbles Most in 7 Months
  • Japan’s 10-Year Bond Yield Closes at Highest Level Since 2018

In Europe, major bourses in Europe are nursing the post-Fed pressure with the complex now mixed, Stoxx 600 -0.1%. In Europe, with lagging post-Intel (-3.1% pre-market) in-spite of strong numbers givensectors are mixed Tech soft guidance, with European comparables pressured post respective earnings this morning. While Financials outperform post-Fed.

Top European News

  • Deutsche Bank Plans to Boost Dividend After Three-Year Drought
  • Dutch Government Said to Resume Sale of Majority ABN Amro Stake
  • European Gas Fluctuates With Ukraine Tensions and Mild Weather
  • U.S., Other ‘Populist’ Nations Mishandled Pandemic, Study Says

In FX, hawkish Fed Powell overshadows official FOMC policy message to give a fresh boost.Greenback Franc, and underperform as Fed gets set to widen the gap between policy stances of SNB, BoJ andYen Euro ECB. Kiwi fails to benefit much from hot NZ CPI and Aussie via a poll predicting RBA tightening in November amidst the Buck’s latest bill run. Rand stands firm awaiting a SARB hike and regains some poise on technical grounds rather than anyRouble real improvement in Russian relations with the US or western nations. CBRT Minutes: the policy stance will be set taking into account the source/permanence of risks, expects the disinflation process to start on the back of measures taken. Will develop tools to support the increase of TRY assets.

In commodities, crude benchmarks have trimmed post-Fed downside in tandem with the equity recovery, as focus remains as Russia receives the US’ written response.very much on geopolitics WTI and have recaptured USD 87.00/bbl and USD 90.00/bbl respectively, and are now holding nearBrent session highs. Spot gold lies near the post-Fed trough and as such the 200- & 50-DMAs are back in view at USD 1805/oz and USD 1803/oz respectively. China Gold Association said 2021 gold consumption increased 36.5% Y/Y to 1,220.9 tons and gold output rose 10.0% Y/Y to 329.0 tons, according to Bloomberg

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: 4Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 5.5%, prior 2.3%
    • 8:30am: 4Q GDP Price Index, est. 6.0%, prior 6.0%
  • 8:30am: 4Q Personal Consumption, est. 3.4%, prior 2.0%
    • 8:30am: 4Q PCE Core QoQ, est. 4.9%, prior 4.6%
  • 8:30am: Dec. Durable Goods Orders, est. -0.6%, prior 2.6%
    • 8:30am: Dec. -Less Transportation, est. 0.3%, prior 0.9%
  • 8:30am: Dec. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior 0.3%
    • 8:30am: Dec. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.4%, prior 0%
  • 8:30am: Jan. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 265,000, prior 286,000
    • 8:30am: Jan. Continuing Claims, est. 1.65m, prior 1.64m
  • 10am: Dec. Pending Home Sales YoY, est. -4.0%, prior 0.2%; MoM est. -0.4%, prior -2.2%
  • 11am: Jan. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 20, prior 24

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I will be doing a Zoom webinar tomorrow at 14:00 London time on my latest chartbook, called “The Road to the next recession”. The link to register to get details of the webinar is here and the link to the chartbook is here.

The chart book also reiterates two big themes we’ve been discussing over the last year. Firstly that the Fed is hugely behind the curve and secondly that this is a totally different cycle to the last one and therefore the trends, especially on inflation, should be totally different. These themes came to a head last night after a hawkish Powell press conference that saw a major negative turnaround in equities and rates.

Upon the statement release, yields were little changed and the NASDAQ rallied around +1.0% bringing it +3.38% higher on the day, as some equity investors were enthused that asset sales appeared to be off the table. However the rhetoric towards tighter rate policy during the press conference undid equity gains immediately. The fact that the NASDAQ then dipped into negative territory before closing just +0.02% higher told the story of the presser. The NASDAQ had a 4.36% intraday range, compared with a 2.75% range Tuesday and a 5.96% range Monday. The S&P 500 closed -0.15% lower, erasing a +2.2% gain, led by real estate (-1.66%), materials (-1.02%), and industrials (-0.82%). The VIX increased for the seventh straight day for the first time since October 2020, climbing +0.8pts to 31.96, its highest level since January 2021.

Treasury yields sold off across the curve, with most of the price action taking place during the press conference: 2yr, 5yr, and 10yr yields increased +13.3bps, +13.0bps, and +9.5bps, respectively. With 2yrs seeing the biggest sell-off since the whipsaw market of March 2020. Real yields did most of the work, with real 5yr and 10yr yields increasing +14.7bps and +10.4bps, respectively. As big as the move in real yields was, there were bigger one-day increases earlier this month, which does a lot to explain how the market has evolved this year. When all was said and done, the market prices a +117% chance of a 25bp March rate hike, so a meaningful probability of a 50bp move, and 4.6 25bp hikes through 2022. In Asia 2-year US Treasury yields are +3.3bps higher with 10yr notes dipping around -1.4bps meaning a notable flattening of the yield curve to c.+65.7bp. See the first few pages of the chartbook for how the historical playbook would suggest inversion by early next year.

So what did the FOMC actually say? Well they did leave policy unchanged as expected, while the statement signalled it would soon be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate, in line with market expectations. The FOMC also released principles for reducing the balance sheet, which were more or less identical to the last round of QT. That is, the Fed will gradually decrease the size of its balance sheet by letting securities mature uninvested, not through sales, in line with our house view.

The press conference proved much more interesting though. Our US econ team has their full review here, where they have added a hike for 2022, with the base case now five. The biggest takeaway was the Chair’s emphasis that this cycle was different from the last round of tightening, in that inflation is well-above target, the labour market is historically tight, and growth projections remain above long-run potential. While the Chair demurred when asked what that specially meant for parameters of monetary policy, he did not rule out a faster pace of rate hikes or larger increments, adding that the Fed had plenty of room to tighten given the state of the labour market. This was the catalyst that sent shorter-dated yields higher, driven by real yields, as markets priced in a higher probability of an earlier and steeper policy path. Underscoring the shift towards tighter policy, he noted the Committee still viewed the balance of risk tilted towards higher inflation, and that the inflation picture had probably gotten worse since the Committee last submitted projections for the dot plot, which only contained three hikes this year. Presumably more hikes will be incorporated in the March dots.

Speaking of March, the Chair confirmed liftoff was likely to take place at the March FOMC, flagging the risks that would prevent that from happening including a worse-than-expected impact from Omicron (which he noted should not be persistent), and intimated geopolitical risks could pose an issue. So March, and every subsequent meeting should be treated as live with a 50bp hike at some point an increasing possibility.

On balance sheet policy, the Chair noted no decisions were made, and that conversations would continue at upcoming meetings (plural), implicitly matching our US econ team’s timeline that QT will begin after multiple rate hikes. He re-emphasized the message laid out in the balance sheet principles document that the Fed will set caps and let securities mature at a predictable pace, adjusting parameters as needed, but the Committee would rely on rate policy to control monetary policy.

Away from the Fed, one of yesterday’s biggest headlines was another surge in oil prices, with Brent crude finishing a shade below $90/bbl in trading for the first time since 2014. That came as the benchmark rose +1.77% in yesterday’s session, whilst WTI was also up +2.04% to its own post-2014 high of $87.35/bbl. In addition to hopes of a return to more normal levels of mobility this year following the pandemic, growing geopolitical tensions have also supported prices lately, not least given Russia is one of the world’s biggest exporters of oil. Bear in mind it was only back in October that Brent crude closed above $80/bbl for the first time since 2018, which in turn led to growing questions that we could be heading back into a period of 1970s-style stagflation. So the $90/bbl milestone won’t be welcomed by central banks looking to get inflation back to target, nor by politicians who face growing public concern about rising petrol prices and the cost of living. This time last year it was around $55 so its going to be tough for YoY CPI around the world to normalise very quickly.

European equities rallied sharply ahead of the Fed, with the STOXX 600 (+1.68%) seeing its strongest performance of 2022 so far as the more cyclical sectors and energy led the advance. The risk-on tone meant that sovereign bonds lost ground too, with yields on 10yr bunds (+0.6bps), OATs (+0.5bps) and BTPs (+3.8bps) all rising on the day. Interestingly, the latest movements also saw another widening in peripheral spreads, with the gap between Italian and German 10yr yields widening to 140.2bps, which is their biggest gap in over a year.

Staying with fixed income, credit continues to hold in ok relative to the year’s equity moves. We did a big note yesterday looking at how in the US the relative concentrations of the S&P 500 and US IG credit indices are at extremes (link here). Indeed the top 6 equity names make up 23.4% of the index. The same names make up 2.6% of the US IG index. Indeed JPM and BoA alone make up around 4.1% so if tech leads any US sell-off, credit will be relatively (if not absolutely) insulated. The note also has all the equivalent European numbers. We covered it also in my CoTD where we showed that the last time the US equity market was this concentrated was during the hubris of the “nifty fifty” bluechip valuation bubble of the late 1960s/early 1970s. Please email jim-reid.thematicresearch@db.com if you want to be added to the CoTD.

Tesla was the latest mega-cap to report earnings, beating analyst revenue and earnings expectations, and reporting annual profits two-years running for the first time in the company’s history. The shares initially dropped -6.45% in after-hours trading on fears that production would remain constrained by continued supply chain issues in 2022, but share prices gradually rebounded traded around +0.3% in extended after-hours.

Asian stock markets are sharply lower this morning post the Fed. The losses are being led by the Kospi (-3.14%) as the index heavyweight Samsung electronics (-2.46%) Q4 operating profit (13.87 trillion won) fell short of average analyst estimates (14.85 trillion won). Further, reports of North Korea firing an “unidentified projectile” in the early hours have also weighed. Separately, the Nikkei (-3.02%) and Hang Seng (-2.57%) are lower. Elsewhere, the Shanghai Composite (-0.88%) and CSI (-0.99%) are going the same way after profits at China’s industrial firms grew at a slower pace in December (+4.2% y/y) from +9.0% in November.

Looking forward, equity futures in the DM world are indicating a weak start with the contracts on the S&P 500 (-1.47%) and DAX (-2.47%) trading lower again.

Staying with Asia, Michael Spencer will today host a Zoom webinar on the Economic Outlook for the region in 2022. The call is at 08:30 EST / 13:30 UK Time / 21:30 Hong Kong Time. Please Register Here to get the joining details.

For those wanting something to listen to, DB Research have released their latest podcast (link here) on Industrials, a sector often said to be an economic bellwether, featuring lead analyst for US multi-industry and machinery research, Nicole DeBlase and Luke Templeman from my team. They discuss how the sector will fair this year as the Fed begins to raise interest rates, as well as how companies are dealing with the rampant input cost inflation they are experiencing. They also discuss how infrastructure bills can influence the sector.

On the Ukraine front, the buzz of headlines continues. Yesterday, the US embassy in Kyiv encouraged its citizens to leave the country, while the State Department responded to Russia’s security demands through a written statement that was not made available to the public, but apparently set out a serious diplomatic path forward.

The other central bank decision yesterday came from the Bank of Canada, who kept rates on hold at 0.25%. That said, they signalled that rate hikes could soon begin, with their statement saying that the Governing Council thought that “overall slack in the economy is absorbed”, and thus they ended their commitment to keeping policy rates at the effective lower bound, saying that they expect “interest rates will need to increase.” Investors are pricing a decent chance of that happening at the next meeting in March, with overnight index swaps pointing to a 94% probability of a hike.

There wasn’t much data of note yesterday, though US new home sales rose to an annualised rate of 811k in December (vs. 760k expected), which is their highest level in 9 months.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US GDP reading for Q4, along with the weekly initial jobless claims, December’s pending home sales, durable goods orders, core capital goods orders, and January’s Kansas City Fed manufacturing index. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Scicluna, whilst earnings releases include Apple, Visa, Mastercard, Comcast, Danaher and McDonald’s.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 61.42 PTS OR 1.78%      //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 482.90 PTS OR 1.99% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 841.03 PTS OR 3.11%      //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1,84%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.3674    /Oil UP TO 88.05 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 90.71 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL MIXED      //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN  AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3674. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3728: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN AND OFF SHORE TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/

China continues its rath against Chinese citizens being too rich and too corrupt.  Xi pushes for “common prosperity”. Today is the party secretary for Hangzhou (Zhou), hometown of Alibaba

(zerohedge)

CCP Expels 1st Official For Being Too Rich & Corrupt As Xi Pushes “Common Prosperity” Crackdown

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 26, 2022 – 09:05 PM

President Xi’s “Common Prosperity” crackdown has finally ensnared a CCP official who allegedly participated in the “disorderly expansion of capital” by taking bribes, abusing his official power, and other violations of his “official duties” – violations that happen to be not just common, but absolutely essential to the Chinese economy, where connections to the government often leads to economic power.

After cracking down on the country’s biggest tech firms, abolishing the private tutoring industry, limiting minors to just a few hours of video games a week and launching an incipient corruption campaign, many Chinese are still wondering how President Xi’s “Common Prosperity” drive will affect them. The President has taken pains to reassure them that money seized from “monopolists” and other economic abusers will be repurposed for the public good, particularly in China’s underdeveloped rural areas.

And like any of China’s previous “anti-corruption campaigns” (including the anti-corruption drive President Xi used to sideline his enemies early during his first term as China’s paramount leader), it’s inevitable that some heads belonging to senior Communists will roll.

Unfortunately (for the targets), it looks like the latest purge has already started.Zhou Jiangyong

Bloomberg on Wednesday reported that the first CCP apparatchik to be officially expelled from the Party during the current anti-corruption crackdown is none other than Zhou Jiangyong, the former party secretary of Hangzhou, the hometown of Alibaba. Zhou was implicated in a major corruption scandal besides Alibaba and Ant Group, which we reported on late last week.

Reports on the corrupt relationship claimed that bribes were paid by Alibaba to Zhou’s brother, who also appeared to benefit in other ways thanks to his connection to his brother.

China’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection released a statement about the official’s ouster on Wednesday:

“Zhou Jiangyong has lost his ideals and beliefs,” the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection said. “He covertly opposed central government plans, colluded with capital, supported the disorderly expansion of capital, engaged in superstitious activities and deliberately resisted probes.”

BBG claimed that Zhou’s ouster from the party marked the first citation of “disorderly capital” in a CCDI corruption case, according to a BBG document review. Zhou, who has reportedly been under investigation since August, was also accused of colluding with family members to receive huge bribes, according to the statement.

His case has been referred to prosecutors. Corruption cases are known to occasionally carry the death penalty in China.

Zhou wasn’t the only official expelled from the Party Wednesday over corruption allegations Wednesday: The CCDI also declared that He Xingxiang, a former vice president of China Development Bank, had been expelled from the Party for “serious” violations of the law, including the misuse of financial approval rights, which had created “major risks” and “huge losses” for the country.

The anti-graft authority had reportedly announced last week that it would crack down on “disorderly expansion of capital” when investigating corruption and “monopolistic” enterprises in the country. Efforts will be made to sever “the link between power and capital,” the CCDI said. “Show no mercy to those who engage in political gangs, small circles, and interest groups within the party, and strictly educate, manage and supervise young cadres.” 

Hopefully, family members of China’s paramount leaders, many of whom have enjoyed an explosion of wealth thanks to their familial ties, aren’t too worried. After all, the CCP has expelled foreign reporters who have dared to report on the wealth held by members of President Xi’s family.

end

China’s plunge protection team to the rescue…

(zerohedge)

China’s “National Team” Rushes To Save Stocks After Bear Market Signaled

 THURSDAY, JAN 27, 2022 – 08:20 AM

China’s equity benchmark tumbled into a bear market while the yuan plunged the most in seven months following the Federal Reserve’s ultra hawkish comments

On Thursday, the CSI 300 Index sank 2% to the lowest level since September 2020 and officially entered a bear market, which means the main equity index is down more than 20%. 

It was only a matter of time before China’s “National Team” (the local plunge protection team) used political pressure on funds and state media outlets to soothe fears. Local media reported seven of China’s ten largest fund-management companies, including E Fund Management Co. and GF Fund Management Co., were putting money to work and buying stocks, according to WSJ

A day earlier, state-owned Securities Times published a story on the front page that blamed domestic institutional investors for the downdraft in onshore-listed stocks for their short-term investment outlooks. The article called upon the investment community, such as brokerage firms, fund managers, insurers, and other institutions, to “stiffen the spine” and support capital markets amid surging volatility. 

Beijing has often used state media outlets to urge big investors to buy the dip. The verbal intervention shows authorities are concerned about capital markets and are increasing support following a round of central bank easing

The statements this week from China’s National Team were very similar to ones in late July 2021 when Chinese stocks suffered historic losses and Hong Kong’s technology sector imploded. This eventually led to a multi-week rally. 

“Even though domestic A-shares are holding up relatively better than others, investors may be offloading them before the long Chinese New Year holiday taking cues from the Fed-driven volatility,” said Marvin Chen, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.

He expected ample liquidity to return after the holidays. 

So given China’s National Team is working to recover beaten-down stocks, and the People’s Bank of China is easing, the question foreign investors have: is it time to buy the dip? To answer this question is Asia equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Mixo Das, who told Bloomberg this week: 

“Within Asia, if you just follow policy, China is definitely the place to be,” Das said, adding the investment bank had upgraded Chinese equities to overweight just weeks ago. 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

//EUROPE/COVID/

end

UK/WALES/VACCINE MANDATE

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA/ EU/UK/NATO

Russia and the UKraine agree to uphold the Donbass ceasefire in talks

(Dave DeCamp/Antiwar.com)

Russia, Ukraine Agree To Uphold Donbas Ceasefire In Normandy Format Talks

 THURSDAY, JAN 27, 2022 – 07:25 AM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Officials from Russia and Ukraine met in Paris on Wednesday and held what Moscow described as “tough” talks. Despite whatever difficulties there were, the two sides agreed that the ceasefire in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region must be upheld.

German and French officials were also present for the meeting, which lasted eight hours. The four countries started holding talks together after the Donbas war started in 2014 in a forum known as the Normandy format.

Russia and Ukraine signed the Minsk agreements during Normandy format talks in 2014 and 2015 that established a ceasefire in the Donbas. While there have been occasional flare-ups, the war has essentially been at a stalemate since 2015.

Russian envoy Dmitry Kozak said that “despite all the differences in interpretations (of the Minsk agreements), we agreed that the ceasefire must be maintained by all the parties in line with the accords.” He also said the next Normandy format meeting will take place in two weeks in Berlin.

The talks were held at the Elysee, the residence of French President Emmanuel Macron. In a statement, the Elysee said that the envoys “support unconditional respect for the ceasefire and full adherence to the ceasefire strengthening measures of July 22, 2020, regardless of differences on other issues relating to the implementation of the Minsk agreements.”

Prior Normandy four talks which took place on December 9, 2019 in Paris…AFP via Getty Images

Under the Minsk agreements, Ukraine agreed to give a level of autonomy to the breakaway Republics of Lugansk and Donetsk, which hasn’t happened yet. In December, The Associated Press reported that the Biden administration was considering pressuring Ukraine to grant the separatists autonomy, a move that could significantly de-escalate tensions in the region.

END

This shows that Putin is not worried:  he holds talks with Italian executives to discuss new business opportunities

(zerohedge)

Putin Holds Economic-Development Meeting With Italian Executives Amid Rising Tensions With West

 THURSDAY, JAN 27, 2022 – 04:15 AM

President Biden’s laughable attempt to create a strong deterrent to Russian “aggression” in Ukraine was further undermined early this week by a video meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and a group of Italy’s most important executives from 25 top companies to discuss new business opportunities.

Following the end of the meeting Wednesday, Putin hailed the effort to warm economic ties between Moscow and Rome as a great success, further cementing Russia’s ties to Continental Europe while Washington threatens economic sanctions – but not much else – as more than 100,000 Russian troops are poised on the border between Russia and eastern Ukraine.

According to the Moscow Times, Putin praised Italy as “one of Russia’s leading economic partners”.

“I would like to emphasize that we consider Italy to be one of Russia’s leading economic partners…and we see serious prospects for expanding the Russian-Italian business partnership,” Putin said, according to a transcript of opening remarks published by the Kremlin.

This isn’t the first time Italy has bucked its western allies in the name of commerce. Italy’s decision to become the first EU nation to join China’s BRI initiative was also harshly criticized by Washington, even if leaders in Rome insisted that any economic development would be worth it.

The FT reported that the video event was organized by the Italy-Russia chamber of commerce and the Italo-Russian business committee. It received the government’s OK in November with the knowledge of Italy’s foreign ministry. The meeting included top executives from some of Italy’s largest companies, including Pirelli, Generali and UniCredit.

Before the Wednesday meeting, the Kremlin said would cover “the potential for further expanding ties between the two countries’ businessmen”. However, pressure from the Italian government managed to convince some of those who had RSVP’d to cancel.

Here’s a breakdown of senior executives who were on the list of attendees. Although whether they ultimately attended is unclear. There were some last-minute cancellations due to government pressure:

  • Francesco Starace, chief executive of Enel
  • Andrea Orcel, chief executive of banking group UniCredit
  • Antonio Fallico, the Russia chair of Intesa Sanpaolo
  • Gabriele Galateri, chairman of Generali
  • Igor Sechi, CEO of Rosneft
  • Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund

Some 500 Italian businesses have operations in Russia, Putin said, and the two nations enjoy $8 billion in bilateral investments, Putin said. “During the first 11 months of last year, bilateral trade grew by 54% to $27.5 billion. At the final count for the year, it will probably pass $30 billion,” he added. Those involved with the event defended it as a routine event to bolster bilateral ties.

Italian officials and businessmen defended the event, which they said was part of a regular cycle of meetings between Putin and companies with big investments in Russia. “Everyone’s objective is dialogue, not escalation, in this context there is no political stance on the part of businesses,” said one business leader who is planning to attend. Lucio Caracciolo, analyst and editor-in-chief of geopolitical magazine Limes, said: “There is the risk of economic sanctions that would negatively impact the Italian economy and the Italian businesses that trade with Russia, therefore the meeting is a way to keep dialogue channels open.”

Meetings like these are important to Putin because he believes “big business can weaken the west’s Russia policy,” said Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center. Of course, Germany’s new government has already shown that it’s not just special interest groups who are reluctant to anger the Kremlin.

Trade ties between the two countries have been improving ever since the famous friendship in the 2000s between Putin and longtime Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi. And even long before that, as Politico points out.

Even from the days of the Cold War, Italy has had unusually tight links with Russia. In the 1960s Fiat produced cars in the Russian town of Tolyatti, named after Italian communist leader Palmiro Togliatti. Eni has also been operating there since the 1960s, while a Pirelli factory received the Soviet Union’s Order of Lenin award in the same decade. “Among European countries, Italy is probably the closest to Russia for economic and cultural ties,” noted Aldo Ferrari, a Russia expert at think tank ISPI and professor at Ca’ Foscari University in Venice.

Meanwhile, the Italians have been somewhat preoccupied lately as the third round of voting to elect Italy’s next president has also failed to yield a suitable result, opening the door for round four on Thursday, as many disagree about whether PM Mario Draghi should be elevated to replace President Sergio Mattarella. Whatever happens, the idea is to show that Draghi will do “whatever it takes” to ensure his reform policies persist past the end of his term as PM in 2023

end

USA avoided the main problem: no more eastern expansion

(zerohedge)

US Avoided Main Question Of NATO Non-Expansion In Written Response: Kremlin

 THURSDAY, JAN 27, 2022 – 09:25 AM

As previously reported, Russia on Wednesday received a hand-delivered written response from the United States to the security proposals Moscow submitted earlier this month to both Brussels and Washington. Russia’s central demand has remained that it needs legal security guarantees of no further NATO expansion eastward. 

In a fresh statement, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov confirmed that Moscow is reviewing the document, but suggested that the core issue Russia is demanding has been sidestepped in the US document. “There is no positive reaction on the main issue in this document,” Lavrov described to reporters. 

“The main issue is our clear position that further NATO expansion to the east and the deployment of strike weapons that could threaten the territory of the Russian Federation are unacceptable,” the top diplomat explained. FM Lavrov addressing a prior NATO-Russia Council meeting.

“The content of the document – there is a reaction that allows us to count on the start of a serious conversation, but on secondary issues,” Lavrov added.

He charged Washington with deliberately avoiding the central security issue, while still holding out that it was at least a basis on which to further dialogue

The principle that one should not strengthen one’s security at the expense of the security of others is deliberately avoided. Neither the Istanbul nor the Astana declarations are mentioned by our Western partners in the discussions on European security that are currently taking place… We cannot accept this,” Lavrov said.

However, Lavrov said that the next moves will be determined by President Vladimir Putin, who is being briefed on the US response. “After an interdepartmental consultation, we will brief the president, and the president will decide on our next steps,” he explained.

Separately on Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov echoed the same charge:

“The numerous statements that our colleagues made yesterday make it clear that as for the major aspects of the draft agreements that we earlier presented to other parties, we can’t say that they took our concerns into account or showed any readiness to take our concerns into consideration.”

Blinken, for the US side, said Wednesday he hopes to discuss the US response directly with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in the coming days. But on the central issues of Russia’s requirement that NATO issue legal guarantees vowing no further expansion eastward, Blinken vowed the Western military alliance won’t budge, making clear that…

“From our perspective. I can’t be more clear — NATO’s door is open, remains open, and that is our commitment,” Blinken said.

Meanwhile, Russian media has continued to charge US mainstream media with hyping and stoking tensions…

“There will be no change,” Blinken emphasized further. However, the written response could still serve to at least keep things on the diplomatic and negotiating playing field, as opposed to stoking further military build-up by both sides. 

At the same time, Russia has reiterated its stance that currently soaring military tensions will be lessened if NATO removes forces from Eastern Europe. This after a limited number of NATO jets and ships earlier this week were deployed toward the region, including a half dozen F-15 jets which landed in Estonia. The White House has cited a “sacred obligation” to protect what press secretary Jen Psaki called “our eastern flank”.

end

27 Russian Diplomats Expelled From US – Embassy Laments “Very Bitter Event” 

 THURSDAY, JAN 27, 2022 – 10:35 AM

27 Russian diplomats left the United States on Wednesday after a prior State Department order had set a deadline of Jan.30 for their departure, at a moment the showdown at the Russia-Ukraine border continues, and amid deteriorating US-Russia relations.

Calling it a “very bitter event at our embassy,” Russian Ambassador Antoly Antonov said in a social media video of the diplomats departing on a bus to the airport: “Our comrades were forced, at the request of the Americans, to leave earlier than the period for which they came here.”

The US had framed the prior order to leave as being due to the expiring visas of over 50 diplomats, however, Russia has called the refusal to renew the visas effectively an expulsion.

“Back in September, we were invited to the State Department and given a list of 55 people,” Amb. Antonov described, according to an English translation. And the embassy said in a statement that the diplomats were “forced to leave earlier than their tenure expired.”

Russia was first notified in late November of last year that the diplomats must prepare to exit US soil. Amb. Antonov said at the time in an interview that “our diplomats are being expelled” and detailed that 27 diplomats and their families are due to be expelled from American soil.

This had followed two dozen Russian diplomats being told to leave in September, with the US refusing to renew their visas as is the normative practice. When that prior event happened, Antonov complained, “It has gotten to the point where the U.S. authorities cancel valid visas of spouses and children of our staff with no reasons provided. The widespread delays in renewing expired visas are also aimed at squeezing Russian diplomatic workers out of the country.”

The State Department at the same time has downplayed that the moves have been retaliatory, instead framing it as but the result of an expired, unrenewed visa issue.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine all US citizens in the country are being advised to make exit plans and leave

Ukraine’s government has protested the move, calling it “premature” – to which the State Dept responded as follows…

“These are prudent precautions that in no way undermine our support for, our commitment to Ukraine,” a senior official said. The decision was made “based on this military buildup, based on how we see these developments,” with the official calling it the “right moment.”

end

Ruble, Russian Markets Rebound As Foreign Ministry Says War With Ukraine “Unthinkable” 

 THURSDAY, JAN 27, 2022 – 01:50 PM

Early this week, on Monday, Russia’s central bank stepped in to halt the ruble’s rapid slide as it hit a 14-month low against the dollar, extending prior losses in a geopolitics-led rout. The near free fall wiped out tens of billions of dollars from Russia’s largest firms as some NATO countries began sending deployments of jets and frigates toward eastern Europe on alarmist headlines that Moscow was set to order an invasion of Ukraine. 

However, while the week opened looking like the region was on the brink of war, it was Ukrainian leaders themselves attempting to walk back the claims of “imminent” invasion, which in turn gave way to some level of reported progress made in high-level dialogue – particularly in Paris involving talks among Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France. Further suggesting that deescalation is in the air, the ruble is now quickly clawing back drastic losses, along with a rebound across Russian markets more broadly.

“Russia’s ruble advances by the most since May 7 after the Foreign Ministry said war with Ukraine would be unthinkable,” Bloomberg reports. Simultaneously on Thursday Belarus state officials confirmed that the current Russian military assets in the country would depart after February joint drills wrap up. The West had condemned Russia’s sending forces into its partner country, which had included S-400 missile deployments.

And The Moscow Times observes of the rebound, “The ruble was trading below 78 to the U.S. dollar on Thursday afternoon, having surpassed the landmark level of 80 on Wednesday night, when the U.S. and NATO delivered their formal responses to Russia’s demands for a sweeping new security pact in Europe.”

“State-owned energy companies and banks topped the leaderboard, with Rosneft, Gazprom and Sberbank all up by more than 8%,” the report notes. This a day after Moscow finally received a long awaited written response from the US over security proposals submitted earlier this month.

While FM Lavrov said the US “deliberately avoided” addressing Russia’s central concern of security guarantees pledging no more NATO expansion eastward, he still acknowledged the document to be a basis of further US-Russia dialogue, suggesting further optimism the two sides are backing away from the precipice. “The content of the document – there is a reaction that allows us to count on the start of a serious conversation, but on secondary issues,” Lavrov underscored.

Meanwhile, the White House is still signaling the possible ramping up of sanctions on Russia – even advancing the threat of personal sanctions on Putin himself – but only in the scenario of a Russian military incursion into Ukraine. 

Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council and former president Dmitry Medvedev addressed potential “sanctions from hell” in an interview on Thursday. “We are really not scared of those sanctions. This is neither a figure of speech nor chest-thumping, it is simply a statement of what is actually happening,” he said. “We are currently facing sanctions ‘from hell’. Well, I don’t know what it is, or what it will consist of. ‘Sanctions from hell’, they say.” Medvedev added, somewhat comically: 

On the other hand, I remember well the words of my colleague Barack Obama who in 2015, I think, after our deadlock due to well-known reasons, with sanctions imposed, delivered a phrase that I remember. He said that the Russian economy was “in tatters.” Well, what can [we] say, where is Obama now? Retired, as they say, while our economy is thriving and moving forward,” Medvedev emphasized.

He added that while the Russian economy has “plenty” of problems, there’s as yet “nothing overly horrific”. He concluded, “Let them use [sanctions] as domestic rhetoric, for satisfying their voters or for their political establishment, overall,” in reference to the United States.

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/

CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE/VACCINE MANDATE

A must read.

Alex Berenson…

AN URGENT WARNING

The world’s most mRNA vaccinated countries now have shockingly high Covid infection rates. Hospitalizations and deaths are rising fast too. The mRNA experiment needs to stop. Immediately.

Alex BerensonJan 241,794616

Something is rotten in Denmark.

And Australia.

And Israel.

Where nearly 1 percent of the entire population just tested positive for Covid.

Not in a month. Or a week. In one day.

You read that right.

On Saturday, Israel had 84,000 new infections, the equivalent of almost 3 million in the United States. Infections in Israel have risen unthinkably fast since late December. They’re are up 100-fold in one month, driven by the collapse of booster protection and the arrival of the Omicron variant.

Israel is not alone. Denmark reported 42,000 cases yesterday, equal to almost 2.5 million in the United States. France, the second-largest country in Europe, reported the American equivalent of about 12 million new infections in the last week. Australia had a tremendous surge in cases earlier this month, though it seems to be subsiding for now.

Daily new infections in Israel:

These countries have very different population demographics and previous exposure to Covid. They even have very different weather; it is summer in Australia.

What do they share, then?

Incredibly high Covid vaccination rates, mostly with the mRNA vaccines. Israel is among the world’s most vaccinated countries. More than 90 percent of Israeli adults have been vaccinated with the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. Almost 80 percent have received a booster dose, and several hundred thousand have gotten a fourth.

Yet Israel had more coronavirus infections in the last week than in all of 2020, before it began mass mRNA Covid vaccinations.

Omicron is much milder than Delta or the original coronavirus. So the data from South Africa – which was the first country where Omicron spread quickly – seemed to show.

But South Africa is quite lightly vaccinated. The more recent data from the highly vaccinated countries has not been as promising. Yes, Omicron is milder.

Even so, hospitalizations and deaths are spiking in countries like Israel and Denmark. In Israel, the number of severely ill patients has risen eightfold this month, and almost fourfold in the last two weeks – even though the true spike in infections has come only in the last few days, and hospitalizations typically lag infections. In Australia, deaths are up tenfold since in the last four weeks, although from a low base.

Daily new serious cases in Israel:

In part the rise has come because Omicron infections have reached such stunningly high levels that even a relatively low risk can lead to a significant number of deaths. And yes, many Omicron hospitalizations are incidental – they are people in the hospital for other reasons who just happen to test positive for Omicron.

But other factors may be at play too. Here are four facts:

1: Both the within-country and the between-country data show that people who are vaccinated but not boosted are at higher risk of Omicron infection than the unvaccinated.

Anyone who says otherwise is lying.

2: Thus vaccines will actually make hospitalization or death from Omicron MORE likely unless they somehow protect against serious outcomes from Covid infections more than they increase the odds of infection. That’s simple math.

At this point we have no way of knowing how those two factors interact. In other words, we do not know if Omicron is more dangerous to the unvaccinated than the vaccinated (putting aside any vaccine side effects).

Anyone who says otherwise is lying.

3: It is unclear whether the vaccines interfere with the development of long-term post-infection immunity in people who are infected with Omicron.

Anyone who says otherwise is lying.

4: It is clear that a third vaccine dose temporarily reduces the risk of serious illness or death from Omicron.

But it is unclear how long that protection will last, and whether when it ends people who have received a third dose will be less or more vulnerable than those who are unvaccinated or have received two doses.

Anyone who says otherwise is lying.

Put these four facts together and it is clear that to encourage booster shots for anyone – including the elderly – at this point is reckless, bordering on criminal.

I have not used language like this before. I did not discourage older people from the primary vaccination series. But the facts have changed and they continue to change, and not to face this reality is incredibly dangerous.

mRNA Covid vaccinations and boosters need to stop worldwide while we figure out what is happening. Not next week. Not tomorrow.

Today.

end

It seems that the more vaccinated the country, the more deaths that one can encounter.  South Africa is poorly  vaccinated and could tolerate the Omicron quite well.  Vaccinated countries have hurt citizens immune systems and that is why more deathsare occuring

(zerohedge)

US Reports Most COVID Deaths In A Year As Danish & Dutch Ditch Restrictions Despite Rising Cases

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 26, 2022 – 06:25 PM

As the omicron wave continues to infect thousands of people around the world, the number of daily deaths recorded in the US has just risen to the highest level in a year. According to data from Johns Hopkins, the 7-day average for newly reported COVID deaths reached roughly 2,200 a day, up about 1K from last fall.

That’s higher than the most recent near-term peak (just above 2,100 in late September), but still well below the record levels from last winter, when deaths reached a daily average of 3,400.

Meanwhile, the number of cases being reported daily in the US has sunk back to a 7-day average just above 200K, well below the million-plus daily numbers from earlier this year.

Globally, the number of cases and deaths reported daily continue to rise, even as a handful of countries including the US, UK and South Africa are starting to see a lasting decline in the intensity of the pandemic.

While the omicron variant is believed to be more mild than its predecessor, delta, the variant spreads among humans much more quickly. Because of this, there’s always the possibility that the number of severe cases might jump as the number of overall infections explodes.

“You can have a disease that is for any particular person less deadly than another, like Omicron, but if it is more infectious and reaches more people, then you’re more likely to have a lot of deaths,” said Robert Anderson, chief of the mortality-statistics branch at the National Center for Health Statistics, which is part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Earlier this month, a team of forecasters warned about a pending uptick in deaths that could drive the US to eclipse 1M COVID deaths by the spring (currently, the US has recorded just over 872K deaths of patients infected with COVID).

Of course, while Americans like to complain about the state of things, blaming Republicans and the minority who refuse to accept COVID shots, the situation south of the border in Mexico, which never resorted to lockdowns, or any federal COVID restrictions, is objectively far more dire. According to the latest FT report on the situation, Mexico suffered 600,000 excess deaths last year. The paper went on to blame the country’s approach, which it said relied almost entirely on vaccines. As a result, 63% of Mexicans are fully vaxxed, slightly higher than the 60% global average.

In Denmark and the Netherlands, governments are relaxing their COVID measures, even as the number of newly reported cases has remained robust. The Netherlands, the only European country to go into lockdown following the arrival of the omicron variant, will relax many of its COVID measures starting Wednesday.

“We are dealing with an extraordinary amount of infections … yet still, we decided to take some steps to reopen,” Health Minister Ernst Kuipers said Tuesday, referring to an average of 52,000 daily positive cases over the last seven days in a country of 17.5 million, according to figures from the Dutch agency for infectious diseases (RIVM).

“Keeping the most restrictive measures in effect for much longer damages our health and our society,” Kuipers said.

As a result, Dutch restaurants, bars and cultural venues will be allowed to remain open until 2200 local time after having been closed entirely since Dec. 19. However, patrons will still be required to show proof of vaccination, recovery, or a negative test result.

In Denmark, a commission of health advisors has officially recommended that most COVID restrictions in the country be ended on Jan. 31. Yet, entry test and isolation rules governing travel to Denmark will be extended. Face mask use at hospitals and in elderly care should continue, the advisors said. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is expected to make an announcement on Wednesday.

end

CANADA

Quebec

This is totally insane!

(zerohedge)

Unvaxxed Canadians Denied Access To Walmart

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 26, 2022 – 07:05 PM

On Monday, Quebec’s draconian new vaccine passport law for unvaccinated people went into effect. Unvaxxed people will be denied entry to big-box retailers unless they shop for food or visit the pharmacy. Even then, they will be under the supervision of an employee (to make sure they don’t buy anything else). 

Quebec expanded the vaccination passport to enter all businesses with surface areas larger than 16,000 sqft or more — except for groceries and pharmacies. The new measure was announced on Sunday night. 

For pharmacies located in Walmart and other big-box retailers, an unvaxxed must be “accompanied at all times during his or her travels by an employee of the business, the pharmacy or any other person mandated by them for this purpose” the measure reads. 

“This person may not purchase products other than those related to the pharmaceutical service they are receiving,” it also said. 

What’s transpiring in Quebec is another example of how vaccine passports create two-tier societies, punishing unvaxxed for disobeying the government. We first described this as a possible scenario in the early days of the pandemic — now it has become fact. 

There’s no more debating if society is headed for a two-tier society because it’s already happening in Canada. 

Have the unvaxxed tried shopping online? Or did Quebec ban them from that? 

end

Here is a doctor’s organization that has treated over 150,000 Covid 19 patients with a 99.99% survival rate.  They use ivermectin, HCQ, vitamin d, prednisone and monoclonal antibodies

(Lee/EpochTimes(

Doctor’s Organization Has Treated Over 150,000 COVID-19 Patients With 99.99% Survival

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 26, 2022 – 10:05 PM

Authored by Meiling Lee via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A doctor who has been offering free telehealth services to COVID-19 patients during the pandemic says that early treatment for COVID-19 works, claiming that he has a 99.99 percent survival rate.

“We have a team of volunteer free doctors that donate their time to help treat these patients that come to us,” Dr. Ben Marble, the founder of myfreedoctor.com, an online medical consultation service, said at a roundtable discussion hosted by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) on Jan. 24.

He added, “We deliver the early treatment protocols to them as early as we can, and we have a 99.99 percent survival rate. So, I believe myfreedoctor.com, the free volunteered doctors have settled the science on this—early treatment works, period!”A paramedic prepares an ambulance at Hudson Regional Hospital in Secaucus, N.J., on Dec. 11, 2020. (Kena Betancur/AFP via Getty Images)

Marble was answering Johnson’s question about what people can do if they or their loved ones have COVID-19.

People can visit the website myfreedoctor.com, create an account, and fill out a patient intake form if the doctors are accepting new patients for that day. One of the doctors will then reach out in less than 24 hours. With a huge demand for their services, the physicians say they can only “accept a certain number of patients each day.”

Marble says that he and his small team of volunteer doctors prescribe [Dr. Peter] McCullough’s treatment protocol, which consists of hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin, monoclonal antibodies, prednisone, and other low-cost generic drugs. They also prescribe vitamins D and C, and zinc.Vitamin C bottles were on display in Miami, Florida on June 15, 2001. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

McCullough, a cardiologist, and epidemiologist, along with several physicians put together an early treatment protocol to provide outpatient care for COVID-19 patients. Their paper was published in The American Journal of Medicine in August 2020.

Dr. Pierre Kory, a pulmonologist and the President at the Frontline COVID-19 Critical Care (FLCCC) Alliance, says that the public is not aware that there are doctors across the country who will provide telehealth and early treatment for COVID-19.

“On our website, we have a button, which says find a provider. We’ve tried to collect as many telehealth providers that treat all states in the country,” Kory said.

“We are trying to let that message be known because that message is being suppressed that this disease is treatable,” he added.

Kory also claims that there is corruption at the federal level in suppressing early treatment with repurposed cheap drugs and their availability and that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been “captured by the pharmaceutical industry.”

The corruption is because they don’t want you to use off-label, repurposed generic medicines. It does not provide profit to the system,” Kory said, adding that, “you know what’s going on in this country right now, is that the CDC has been captured by the pharmaceutical industry.”

“They sent out a memo in August of 2021, they sent out a similar memo back in the spring 2020, telling the nation’s physicians and pharmacists not to use generic medicines.”

The Epoch Times has reached out to the CDC for comment.

Early treatments were and continue to be discouraged by the CDC, whose guidance since the beginning of the pandemic up until January 2022, only focused on people self-quarantining for 14 days, keeping hydrated, taking analgesics, and only seeking hospital care when they can’t breathe or turn blue. They also warned people to not take any medications not approved for COVID-19.

“People have been seriously harmed and even died after taking products not approved for use to treat or prevent COVID-19, even products approved or prescribed for other uses,” the CDC wrote on its potential treatments webpage.

The weblink provided for the alleged harmful product was related to a March 2020 health alert warning of a serious health effect from ingesting non-pharmaceutical chloroquine phosphate used to clean fish tanks. This alert came after an Arizona man and his wife took the non-pharmaceutical drug in an attempt to self-medicate for COVID-19.

For the past two years, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has only authorized limited early outpatient treatments for COVID-19 that include monoclonal antibodies for high-risk patients and antiviral pills from Merck and Pfizer. However, the FDA on Jan. 24 announced it was limiting the use of Eli Lilly and Regeneron monoclonal antibodies only to patients “likely to have been infected with or exposed to a variant that is susceptible to these treatments.”

Johnson held the roundtable discussion to offer a different perspective on the response to the pandemic, including on “the current state of knowledge of early and hospital treatment, vaccine efficacy and safety, what went right, what went wrong, what should be done now, and what needs to be addressed long term.”

The discussion panel consisted of renowned health experts and scientists that included McCullough, Dr. Robert Malone, and Dr. Paul Marik.

According to a press release, Johnson also invited over a dozen prominent figures involved in developing, promoting, and leading the pandemic response, including the CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky and White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Jeffrey Zients. All of the individuals declined to attend the forum.

END

More and more countries are lifting restrictions

special thanks to Neil for supplying this for us:

Denmark lifting restrictions, also mentions Finland

Inbox

Neil Alho1:43 PM (9 minutes ago)
to bcc: me

First England and Ireland. Now a few more lifting restrictions – hopefully it is our turn soon!!

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/jan/27/denmark-drops-most-of-its-covid-19-restrictions-mo/

GLOBAL GLOBAL NEWS

Special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:

Anti-Vaccine Protests LARGEST in Human History — “Over 31 Million Worldwide” — Getting Bigger by the Day – DailyVeracity

Inbox

Robert Hryniak10:25 AM (2 hours ago)
to

All narratives that are false do not stand the test of time, as in the end, truth comes out. In past i have said that the Great Reset espouses by Klaus at the WEF will fail because it does not take into  account human nature.
As we watch the protests grow around the world we should see an ever growing number of country governments fall or in some cases see politicians abandon their positions in attempt to get ahead of the will of the people to survive. Where stupidity or callousness of die hard followers of Klaus wait too long they will find that protests grow and the public becomes more enraged over the freedoms seized over a false narrative for control.
Predictability chaos will grow into the spring bring all sorts of surprises and changes not yet being addressed. And with this will come opportunities.

VACCINE IMPACT

Corporate Media Warning of Attacks on Power Grid and Cyber Attacks as U.S. Tells People to Leave Ukraine Now by Any Means Available

January 26, 2022 3:05 pm

Information (or dis-information) is now very obviously being leaked to the corporate media warning of impending attacks on the power grid in the United States, as well as cyber attacks, as the U.S. is now telling citizens in the Ukraine to leave immediately, by whatever means necessary. If you are not prepared for periods of time with no electricity and no Internet, you may have very little time left to prepare.Read More…


COVID-19 Vaxxed Olympic Gold Medalist Dies at 51 but Media Calls Him “Anti-Vaxxer”

January 26, 2022 4:59 pm

The Independent has put out an early (and strong) entry for “Worst Journalism of the Year” award, reporting yesterday the death of Hungarian gymnastics coach Szilveszter Csollany under the headline: “Anti-vax Olympic gold medalist Szilveszter Csollany dies of Covid, aged 51” The glaring issue with this headline becomes clear just three paragraphs into the article: “While Csollany had, according to [Hungarian newspaper Blikk], expressed anti-vaccination views on social media, the six-time World Championship medallist had been vaccinated to allow him to continue to work as a gymnastics coach.” The journalism is terrible, criminally bad. The evidence supplied for Csollany’s supposed “anti-vaccination views” is non-existent. Second-hand hearsay, at best. No direct quotations, no sources provided. To bury that in the body, under that headline, is deliberate deception. They know many people will read the title and assume he hadn’t had the vaccine without ever reading the body of the text, and they are relying on that to spread an intentionally false impression. The very definition of disinformation.Read More…


Michael Every

on the major topics of the day

Michael Every….

Welcome To Fedestroika: Powell Now Has Just Two Choices

 THURSDAY, JAN 27, 2022 – 09:46 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Fedestroika

I have long made black humor comparisons between the structural malaise of the West and the late-stage Soviet economy. The latter could see things weren’t working even in the 1970s but drifted through a “novy normalny” of slower growth and rising shortages, with the easiest answer always to build yet another statue of Marx or Lenin, talk about the proletariat, and hope things somehow turned around. Today the easiest answer is always to build another high-end condo or business center, talk about the proletariat, and hope things somehow turn around. The USSR eventually opted for the shock of glasnost (openness) and perestroika (reform) – which led to total collapse. The Fed appears to have just opted for ‘Fedrestroika’, which is going to cause lots of apparatchiks to get nervozny.

After all, as @S_Mikhailovitch correctly sees on Twitter, “Today’s Fed is our version of the 1980’s Soviet Politburo. They say and do whatever may help sustain the unsustainable. That’s the game. There is no other.” As someone replied, “To paraphrase that old Soviet joke ‘They pretend to have inflation under control, and markets pretend to believe them.’”

Now our commissars are promising a series of rate hikes to try to save the system from itself – Chair Powell ironically adding “I think there’s quite a bit of room to raise interest rates without threatening the labor market.” They also released a document called ‘Principles for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet’ when we know that they cannot sustainably reduce the balance sheet. It doesn’t get any more Soviet sounding than that, and if you can’t see that you’ve been in said system too long, or a true apparatchik.  

My fellow Fed refusenik Philip Marey thinks they will hike four times this year. He also thinks it’s a deep irony they opted to reaffirm the equally-Soviet ‘Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy’ –with the sentence “the Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2% over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2%, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for some time.” — as the adoption of this strategy is why the Fed has fallen so far behind the curve in the first place. That and the need to build high-end condos or business centers, talk about the proletariat, and hope things somehow turn around.

The market reaction to Powell’s Q&A was huge: 2-year Treasury yields leaped from 1.02% to 1.15%, while 10s went from 1.77% to 1.86%, flattening the curve further when we won’t get the first hike until March; stocks gave up all the ‘party-insider’ gains of the day; and the dollar rallied.

So, can Fedrestroika last? As our Rates Strategy team sees it, the Fed belatedly realizes there is nothing they can do about the supply-chain shortages and high inflation that plague the economy. (Yes, the US could repress inflation by fixing prices, but that would just make its shelves look more Soviet if they don’t also move the means of production home.) As such, the Fed has two choices: do nothing and risk inflation really sinking in; or raise rates knowing that if markets collapse they can then pivot back to zero rates/QE, building high-end condos or business centres, talking about the proletariat, and hoping that things somehow turn around. They know how to do the latter. In fact, it’s all they know.

One wonders how long this dialectic can be peddled before the proletariat prefers a different kind of dictatorship: but that’s a matter for samizdat (or Twitter) rather than the market media and apparatchiks, who all want to keep their lovely dachas.  

And ‘Back in the USSR’, both fog of war and diplomacy swirl in the air. A senior Russian politician says Moscow rejects US proposals responding to its security demands as “fantasies”, with their foreign minister threatening “retaliatory measures”. The press says the US response only covered arms controls rather than US support for Ukraine’s right to pursue NATO membership, the red line for Moscow. Some military strategists point out the number of Russian troops on the border is not enough for a full invasion; others that the amount of equipment is, and that the extra troops only need to arrive at the last minute. (With some then wondering if it would be before, during, or after the Beijing Olympics.) Moreover, two dozen Russian embassy staff were just told to leave D.C. Neither development bodes well.

While Russia’s goal may still be to divide Ukraine, with the huge market tail risks we have already covered, it is assuredly to divide the West, with equally large tail risks over time – and here it is already winning. As the New York Times puts it: “Putin’s goal is to split the Europeans, and then split Europe and the US. If the impression prevails that Germany is not fully committed to a strong NATO response, he will have succeeded in paralyzing Europe and dividing the alliance.” While Berlin has just agreed to sell 5,000 helmets to Ukraine, that is not getting any hat tips given what everyone else is doing. Indeed, Chancellor Scholz appeared physically uncomfortable and reticent at a recent press conference when discussing Russia’s actions and what he would be prepared to do about them, which hardly builds confidence.

Meanwhile, Germany is fighting a two-front surrender, as Politico reports Berlin is “working behind the scenes to undermine a common position against China”. Chancellor Scholz’s office allegedly fears the EU is becoming too aggressive in its defense of Lithuania against Beijing’s economic coercion, after France last week said Beijing had gone too far with its attacks on the single market, and is “calling everyone who speaks German in the Commission” to tone down the pressure on China – which is not coercion when Berlin does it. ‘Coincidentally’, Reuters reports Lithuania may now consider backing down over its Taiwan stance: Slovenia next? And isn’t it nice to be able to tell smaller eastern European countries what to do?

Clearly, something needs to change: the issue is what (or who)?

On which, Italy –also being wooed by Russia– still does not have a president. Today sees round four of voting, and while a successful candidate needed a two-thirds majority in the first three rounds, today that threshold is lowered to an absolute majority. Then it reduces every day going forwards until by March it is the first person to put their hand up. I joke: see here for proper analysis from Marnix Arendshorst, which underlines the potential market impact.

Yet I am not joking that the best defense supporters of British PM BYO can muster against accusations of him having attended an illegal birthday party under lockdown are that the PM was “ambushed by a cake”: cue Twitter memes such as a line of cakes with the captions “Can you identify your attacker from this line-up, sir?” Also cue more letters of no confidence and a likely leadership challenge, and GBP volatility. The one-rule-for-me-and-another-for-you is again very Soviet. The fact that there was a cake to go with the alcohol isn’t. Future historians will note while Europe was close to being carved up, the UK was preoccupied by slices of cake; yet it still played a more proactive role than Brezhnevian Germany, which was trying to have its cake and eat it.

7. OIL ISSUES

‘Rogue Wave’ 2.0: US NatGas Futures Explode Higher Into Chaotic Expiration

We have a Deja vu all over again!!

(zerohedge)

THURSDAY, JAN 27, 2022 – 03:40 PM

February U.S. natural gas futures violently surged Thursday in what appears to be a delivery squeeze into expiration. 

Bloomberg’s Javier Blas had some early insight that something was amiss…https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1486783875665874952&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fcommodities%2Fus-natgas-contracts-february-spike-72-after-chaotic-squeeze&sessionId=0d54742010afa72a2c5e0f3bc45585e812ebd03d&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=75b3351%3A1642573356397&width=550px

Around 1400 ET, natgas contracts for February jumped as much as 72% in minutes, the most significant increase ever since the contract launched in 1990, according to Bloomberg, citing a spokesperson for CME Group.

The spread between February and March contracts erupted. 

The massive squeeze came ahead of the February contract expiration and reminded us of the chaotic action surrounding crude futures expiration that.sent WTI prices crashing into deep negative territory in April 2020. Bloomberg sheds more color on the situation: 

Though hedge funds have been net-long on U.S. gas contracts, indicating they expect prices to rise, money managers still held substantial short positions, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In a squeeze, traders exposed to wrong- way bets on lower prices are forced to close out those positions by purchasing higher-priced contracts.

Gas prices have been volatile in recent weeks as traders try to gauge whether winter cold will strain stockpiles of the power-plant and heating fuel. Although inventories are only 1% below normal for the time of year, exports have been near a record and production from shale basins has been relatively restrained. -Bloomberg

There’s no word on which firm(s) are responsible for the unwind or the damage it has unleashed. We suspect if this is anything like the 2018 implosion of Tampa-based OptionsSellers.com, there will be casualities in the days, if not weeks ahead.

Remember this guy? “I promise you every day when I woke up, I was checking for rogue waves…”

Here’s what people on Twitter are saying about the chaos. https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1486785506880933892&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fcommodities%2Fus-natgas-contracts-february-spike-72-after-chaotic-squeeze&sessionId=0d54742010afa72a2c5e0f3bc45585e812ebd03d&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=75b3351%3A1642573356397&width=550px

The squeeze also rippled through later-month contracts.

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

AUSTRALIA

END

*  *  *

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.1162 DOWN .0079 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL MIXED  

USA/ YEN 115.24  UP  0.518 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3395  DOWN   0.0073

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 61.42 OR 1.78%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 482.90 PTS OR 1.99%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.84%   // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL MIXED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED   

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG  CLOSED DOWN 482.90 OR  1.99%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 61.42  PTS OR 1.78%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.84%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 841.03 PTS OR 1.99%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1808.70

silver:$23.03-

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 97.07  UP 113  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 0.59%  DOWN 2  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.159% DOWN 1 AND 8/10   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 0.67%// DOWN 1   in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 1.29 DOWN 5    points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 62 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO -0.056% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.35% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1148  DOWN .0092    or 92 basis points

USA/Japan: 115.36 UP 0.651 OR YEN DOWN 65  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3383 DOWN 84  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN 65 pts to 1.2723

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED DOWN)..6.3683  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.3700

TURKISH LIRA:  13.63  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.159

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 7 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.796% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.091 DOWN 9 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.23  UP 128   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 84.53 PTS OR 1.13%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 64.88 points or 0.42%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 41.84 PTS OR  0.60% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 85.80PTS OR 1.00%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 263.22 PTS OR 0.99%

WTI Oil price 86.89    12: EST

Brent Oil:  89.59  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE RISES:   77.78 THE CROSS LOWER BY  138 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE HIGHER BY 138  BASIS PTS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; -.056

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.1142 DOWN  .0098   OR 98 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3379 DOWN  .0088 or 88 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 115.34 UP .621

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2740 UP .0084 (cdn dollar DOWN 84 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 86.53

Brent: 89.27

USA 10 yr bond yield: 1.811 down 6 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.096  down 7  pts

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 7.35 PTS OR 0.02%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 169.65 OR 1.20%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 31.04 DOWN .92 PTS

GLD/NYSE CLOSING PRICE $167.65 down $2142 OR 1.26%

SLV/NYSE CLOSING PRICE: $21.01// down $.71 OR 3.27%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Angry Stocks Come To Terms With Hawkish Fed As Yield Curve Screams ‘Policy Error’

BY TYLER DURDEN

THURSDAY, JAN 27, 2022 – 04:00 PM

GDP “good news” appears to have been greeted as “bad news”, providing more cover for Powell to do what he said he would do with rates and QT… and while the algos lifted everything overnight, sellers appeared at the cash open and it was a one-way trip to yesterday’s lows (or worse) for the rest of the day. Small Caps are down 5% from pre-Fed, Nasdaq is down over 3%, and The Dow is down around 1% only

On the day, Small Caps are down over 2% in a massive whipsaw and The Dow is clinging to unchanged after swinging up and down 1000s of points…

Wonder how many of these meetings happened today… or are imminent…

NOTE that the moment the S&P managed to get back to even from pre-Fed, selling pressure built rapidly. Clearly, the algos were in stop-hunter mode…

The standard MO of crushing VIX to ignite momentum went into action but that ended rather badly for the vol-sellers this time…

The Russell 2000 closed (for the first time in this cycle) in bear market and the S&P is very close to closing in correction…

In other equity news, TSLA was clubbed like a baby seal after rallying on solid earnings last night (for context, that is one Ford in lost market cap)…

A year ago today, GME hit its record high at $483. Today it is down 80% from those highs… but still up over 350% from the pre-WSB-chaos levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Puts were heavily bid today relative to calls…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were very mixed today with the long-end heavily bid and massively outperforming as the short-end adjusted for The Fed’s more hawkish rate trajectory…

Source: Bloomberg

For context, this is massive shift in the curve’s correlation regime with a huge flattening screaming at a Fed Policy Error being imminent…

Source: Bloomberg

2s30s utterly imploded today after yesterday’s very brief steepening…

Source: Bloomberg

The 7s10s curve is on the brink of inverting (joining the 20s30s segment of the curve which has been inverted for 3 months). Bear in mind, apart from 3/9/2020, the 7s10s spread has not closed flatter than this…

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, the yield curve has been flattening from the 2Y maturity out since Powell’s Pivot in late November…

Source: Bloomberg

The short-end is now pricing an 80% chance of a 5th rate-hike by Dec 2022… (and a 25% chance of a 50bps hike in March)

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar continued its rip higher pushing towards the highs from December’s FOMC meeting spike…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin slipped back below $36k…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold puked to $1800 amid hawkish Fed speak but buyers reappeared. However, as stocks started breaking down and rate-hike odds lifted, gold tanked back below $1800…

WTI fell back below $87 at today’s settle…

NatGas futures had a ‘moment’ into expiration today with the Feb 22 contract exploding over 50% higher into its close…

That’s quite a squeeze into contract expiration…

Finally, just like the overnight ramp last night reassured many dip-buyers, investor sentiment is at historically pessimistic levels…https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1486670324351463428&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fangry-stocks-come-terms-hawkish-fed-yield-curve-screams-policy-error&sessionId=48dbc4680fdb1975daee7d0ee037d9a2a5957249&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=75b3351%3A1642573356397&width=550px

For some clarity on what just happened, where we are, and what happens next Brent Kochuba from SpotGamma and Darius Dale from ’42 Macro’ break down macro implications of The Fed Meeting and analyze the options markets impact…

end

I)  MORNING/AFTERNOON TRADING/

II) USA DATA

December US Durable Goods Orders Tumbled Most Since 2020 COVID Collapse

 THURSDAY, JAN 27, 2022 – 08:37 AM

After an unexpected 2.6% MoM surge in November, preliminary December data for US Durable Goods Orders was expected to show a contraction of 0.6% MoM. Analysts got the direction right but the magnitude was far larger as orders tumbled 0.9% MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

While orders continue to rise year-over-year, that is the biggest MoM drop since April 2020.

Under the hood, new orders ex-trans. rose 0.4% in December.

However, the value of core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment in equipment that excludes aircraft and military hardware, was little changed after climbing a revised 0.3% in the prior month.

end

USA GDP soars to 6.9% but all driven by huge inventory accumulation

totally ignore this 

(zerohedge)

US GDP Soared In Q4 To 6.9% Despite Omicron, Driven By Huge Inventory Accumulation

 THURSDAY, JAN 27, 2022 – 08:53 AM

With attention increasingly turning to how fast the economic slowdown will hit the US economy in 2022, growth cheerleaders will have a favorable, if brief, diversion today courtesy of the Bureau of Economic Analysis which moments ago revealed that in Q4, US GDP grew at a remarkable 6.9% annualized Q/Q clip, nearly three times faster than the 2.3% growth recorded in Q3 and well above the 5.5% expectation, even if the components of GDP are an ominous confirmation that the US is engaging in aggressive restocking which could soon lead to a deflationary liquidation wave.

According to the BEA, the acceleration in the fourth quarter was led by an upturn in exports as well as accelerations in inventory investment and consumer spending. In the fourth quarter, COVID-19 cases resulted in continued restrictions and disruptions in the operations of establishments in some parts of the country. Government assistance payments in the form of forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased as provisions of several federal programs expired or tapered off.

As shown in the chart below, the fourth quarter increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in inventory investment, exports, consumer spending, and business investment that were partly offset by decreases inboth federal and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

A detailed breakdown reveals the following:

  • Personal consumption rose 2.25% in Q4, up from 1.35% in Q3. The increase in consumer spending primarily reflected an increase in services (led by health care, recreation, and transportation). Consumer spending for goods also increased (led by recreational goods and vehicles).
  • Change in private inventories added a whopping 4.90% to GDP, up from 2.2% in Q3a huge increase which accounted for over 70% of the bottom line 6.9% GDP print. The increase in inventory investment primarily reflected increases in retail (led by motor vehicle and parts dealers) and wholesale (led by durable goods industries).
  • Fixed Investment contributed 0.25% to the bottom line, also an improvement from the -0.16% detraction in Q3. The increase in business investment primarily reflected an increase in intellectual property products (led by software as well as research and development) that was partly offset by a decrease in structures (led by commercial and health care).
  • Net Exports were a wash, with exports adding 2.43% to GDP while imports subtracting -2.43%, perfectly offsetting each other for a net contribution of 0%. The increase in exports reflected increases in both goods (led by nondurable goods) and services (led by travel).
  • Government spending declined, leading to a -0.51% subtraction from the bottom line GDP. The decrease in federal government spending primarily reflected a decrease in defense spending on intermediate goods and services (led by services). The decrease in state and local government spending reflected decreasesin consumption expenditures (led by compensation of state and local government employees, notably education) and in gross investment (led by new educational structures).

Of the above, the surge in private inventories was most remarkable: as shown below, Q4 saw the 2nd highest inventory restocking on record (although one wouldn’t know it by looking at all those bare shelves).

In other words, the inventory restocking process is now running red hot – even if many won’t notice it on the shelves of their favorite retailer – and in future quarters will likely lead to further declines in GDP, which is a problem for a Fed preparing to hike “5 or 6” times in 2022.

Elsewhere, the GDP price index rose 6.9% in 4Q after rising 6.0% prior quarter, and higher than the 6.0% expected, while the Fed’s favorite inflation metric, Core PCE q/q rose 4.9% in 4Q in line with expectations, after rising 4.6% in the prior quarter, as inflation keeps rising.  Energy prices increased 40.7 percent in the fourth quarter while food prices increased 9.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter after increasing 5.1 percent in the third quarter.

Finally, on a full year basis, real GDP increased 5.7% (from the 2020 annual level to the 2021 annual level), in contrast to a decrease of 3.4% in 2020. The increase reflected increases in all major subcomponents: consumer spending, business investment, exports, housing investment, and inventory investment. Imports increased.

Bottom line: this was a strong number, but peeking between the lines reveals that it was a very low quality print, one driven almost entirely by a surge in inventories. If and when this restocking reverses, not only will it subtract from GDP but will have a sharply deflationary effect as liquidations kick in.

And while the US economy closed on a high note, it’s all downhill from here, with sellside expectations for Q1 2022 looking much more ominous, somewhere in the 2% range, a number which we expect will continue sliding over the next 2 months potentially turning negative some time around the March FOMC.

end

Jobless Claims Improved Last Week For First Time In 2022

 THURSDAY, JAN 27, 2022 – 08:42 AM

After jumping to the highest since October, initial jobless claims were expected to drop last week and did so, falling to 260k (from a revised higher 290k the previous week). Non-seasonally adjusted claims crashed back down as perhaps signs of Omicron anxiety are fading.

Source: Bloomberg

This is the first improvement in jobless claims since the start of the year.

All except two states registered declines in unadjusted claims, with Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey posting the biggest decreases.

The total number of Americans on some form of government dole continues to hover around pre-COVID-lockdown levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this as good as it gets? For Main Street and Wall Street?

Source: Bloomberg

Or will Powell fold again?

end

US Pending Home Sales Puked In December, Realtors Blame Rising Rates

 THURSDAY, JAN 27, 2022 – 10:07 AM

Despite an unexpected surge in new-home-sales, pending-home-sales puked in December, tumbling 3.8% MoM (after falling 2.3% MoM in November)…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest MoM drop since Feb 2021 and pushed the YoY drop back into the red (down 6.64%).

“Pending home sales faded toward the end of 2021, as a diminished housing supply offered consumers very few options,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement. 

“Mortgage rates have climbed steadily the last several weeks, which unfortunately will ultimately push aside marginal buyers.”

New home sales were the only segment to see an increase in sales in December…

Sales dropped in every region:

  • Northeast fell 1.2% m/m; Nov. fell 0.1%
  • Midwest fell 3.7% m/m; Nov. fell 6.1%
  • South fell 1.8% m/m; Nov. fell 1%
  • West fell 10% m/m; Nov. fell 2.1%

This may be a big problem for Powell as pending home sales are often looked to as a leading indicator of existing-home purchases given properties typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold

IIb) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATE STORIES

from Senate hearings: Ron Johnson!

must view…

Whistleblowers Reveal DoD Medical Data Showing Military Cancer Diagnoses HAVE TRIPLED Since The Rollout Of The Experimental Vaccines – Along With a 10x Increase in Neurological Disorders and a Near 5x increase in Female INFERTILITY – (VIDEO)

On Monday, several world-renowned doctors and medical experts spoke during a panel discussion in Washington DC that was hosted by Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI),

The nearly five-hour-long event, which was titled “Covid-19: A Second Opinion,” saw a wide range of issues discussed, including “the global pandemic response, the current state of knowledge of early and hospital treatment, vaccine efficacy, and safety, what went right, what went wrong, what should be done now, and what needs to be addressed long term,” according to its description on Sen. Johnson’s website.

The esteemed medical experts sounded the alarm over several issues that they have come across over the past year, exposing even more damning information that illustrates the horrific effects of the experimental vaccines, and how the corrupt US health regime has nefariously attempted to cover its tracks since the beginning.

Unfortunately, the catastrophic effects of the vaccines may be worse than ever thought possible, especially for young people.

TRENDING: **HUGE BREAKING NEWS** — Wisconsin Assembly Votes to Advance Rep. Ramthun’s Resolution to Reclaim Wisconsin’s Electors For President and Vice President That Were Certified Under Fraudulent Purposes — VIDEO

During the event, Ohio attorney Thomas Renz presented DOD medical billing data from the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database (DMED) that exposes the disturbing truth about what is happening to the health of our service members since the rollout of the jab a year ago.

According to Renz, there has been an astronomical increase in several serious illnesses and disorder diagnoses in the US military since the rushed rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine – most concerning of which – cancer, which has seen a 3x increase.

“We have substantial data showing that we saw, for example, miscarriages increasing by 300% over the five-year average, almost. We saw almost 300% increase in cancer over the five-year average.”

The DMED data also revealed that there has been a whopping ten times increase in neurological disorders since the vaccines were introduced, which directly impacts military readiness, especially within the US Air Force.

Not the most encouraging thing, considering the Warhawks in the DC Swamp are pushing to kick off WWIII with Russia.

“We saw — this one’s amazing — neurological. So, neurological issues which would affect our pilots, over 1000% increase. 1000,” he said.

Completely flabbergasted by the revelation, Sen. Johnson asked Renz to clarify: “Ten times,” he said. “That’s ten times the rate?”

Renz continued:

“82,000 per year to 863,000 in one year. Our soldiers are being experimented on, injured, and sometimes possibly killed.”

VIDEO:https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/01/whistleblowers-reveal-dod-medical-data-showing-military-cancer-diagnoses-tripled-since-rollout-experimental-vaccines-along-10x-increase-neurological-disorders-near-5x/

Senior editor Daniel Horowitz of the Blaze spoke with Renz and corroborated the information with the whistleblowers to confirm the data’s legitimacy. According to Horowitz, who personally ‘knows two of the three whistleblowers,’ the number of cancer diagnoses in the military went from a 5-year average (2016-2020) of 38,700 per year to 114,645 in the first 10 months of 2021.

Horowitz explained:

“I know 2 of the 3 cited whistleblowers. Their credentials are impeccable. Lt. Col. Chambers is one of the only Green Beret doctors in the military. Actually I got that wrong. One of the whitsleblowers just told me it was through October, not November. So this is 10 months of data off the chart vs. prior 12 month years!”

Further adding to the credibility of it all, the military whistleblowers provided their testimony under oath, which will be used in federal court by Renz.

From The Blaze:

“In a declaration under penalty of perjury that Renz plans to use in federal court, Drs. Samuel Sigoloff, Peter Chambers, and Theresa Long — three military doctors — revealed that there has been a 300% increase in DMED codes registered for miscarriages in the military in 2021 over the five-year average.

The five-year average was 1,499 codes for miscarriages per year. During the first 10 months of 2021, it was 4,182.

As Renz explained to me in an interview with TheBlaze, these doctors queried the numbers for hundreds of codes from 2016 through 2020 to establish a baseline five-year average. These codes were generally for ailments and injuries that medical literature has established as being potential adverse effects of the vaccines.”

Renz also provided The Blaze with additional information on other severe illnesses and disorders that he did not have time to get to during the panel discussion.

The scope of the damage is absolutely shocking. In addition to the 3x of cancer and miscarriages, and the 10x of neurological disorders, there has been a near 5x spike in female infertility, among others.

“Some other numbers he did not mention at the hearing but gave to me in the interview are the following:

  • myocardial infarction –269% increase
  • Bell’s palsy – 291% increase
  • congenital malformations (for children of military personnel) – 156% increase
  • female infertility – 471% increase
  • pulmonary embolisms – 467% increase”

The data comes directly from the US military’s Defense Medical Epidemiology Database (DMED) system, which is the military’s equivalent to the US Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) – but the DMED system is only accessible by military doctors and records every single case in the military for insurance billing, which, unlike VAERS, makes it extremely accurate.

As Horowitz also points out, this military-medical information is easily accessible to the federal government’s alphabet agencies (FDA, CDC, DoD) that are in charge of creating the public health nightmare we are living through, which indicates they are well aware of the skyrocketing diagnoses of life-threatening reactions that are linked to the experimental vaccine – but have decided to cover up the information from the public while they continue to compel more jabs.

In short, Biden’s federal government is fully aware of what’s going on, but the narrative and their corruption are more important than American lives, even if they are military members.

According to Renz, the whistleblowers came forward because of what they were seeing on the job as they treated military personnel, leading them to investigate the DMED system for anomalies related to the increase they had seen in their clinical experience.

Unfortunately, their investigation confirmed what they had feared, and things have just been getting worse.

This is just “the tip of the iceberg,” claimed Renz, who says he has even more data coming.

One of the whistleblowers explained to The Blaze:

 “‘These doctors were motivated to explore DMED data due to the numbers of case increases they were seeing empirically,’ said the whistleblower, who served in the military for many years. ‘Some physicians throughout the force (all branches) have been intimidated by commands not to perform the full spectrum of testing and adhere to the regulations, which implicitly direct full workups for EUA vaccination adverse reactions. It will require other military physicians to step forward and share experiences to fully ascertain the enormity of these allegations and engender an investigation to the fullest extent.’

Renz claims he has a video with two witnesses showing the entire process of downloading this data from the database and is prepared to present it in court. He also told me that this is just ‘the tip of the iceberg,’ as the codes have increased exponentially in numerous other diagnosis categories. Renz said his spreadsheet, which includes over 100 medical diagnosis categories, was shared with Senator Johnson and his staff before the Monday hearing.”

During Monday’s hearing, Renz also testified that some of the data, specifically related to myocarditis, have been manipulated since the whistleblowers pulled the data out of the DMED system, indicating that the federal government is attempting to cover its tracks.

Following Renz’s bombshell revelations, Sen. Johnson warned Biden’s corrupt regime that they have officially been put “on notice,” and better not delete any of the data.

“The Department of Defense, the Biden administration is on notice they must preserve these records and this must be investigated.”

If the data is accurate, and there is no indication that it isn’t (especially considering the corroborating data in VAERScountless medical studies showing the adverse effects of the vaccine, and the manipulation of Covid statistics that has already been exposed), Biden’s federal government has committed atrocious crimes against humanity and has been working overtime to criminally conceal them from the pubic.

We are way past due for some major accountability.

end

Families sneak in ivermectin to loved ones in hospitals and see improvement in COVID 19 cases.

(Holt/EpochTimes)

Florida Doctor: Families Sneak Ivermectin To Loved Ones In Hospitals With COVID-19, See Improvement

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 26, 2022 – 08:45 PM

Authored by Nanette Holt via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Florida doctor says families of loved ones hospitalized with COVID-19 are resorting to desperate measures when approved treatments have failed.File photo: A package of ivermectin tablets. (Natasha Holt/The Epoch Times)

And when it’s not too late, some have seen tremendous success by sneaking medications prohibited by hospitals to patients, says Eduardo Balbona, an independent internist in Jacksonville.

He’s helped dozens of seriously ill patients recover using ivermectin and other drugs and supplements not officially approved in the treatment of COVID-19, he says.

Hospitals receive payments from the federal government for treating patients with COVID-19. But those payments are tied to their use of approved treatments only, as outlined in the CARES Act. When there’s nothing left to try under those protocols, families naturally research alternatives,  Balbona says, often learning about treatments touted by independent physicians around the country.

Hoping to try anything that might work, families around the country have filed lawsuits asking judges to intervene.

In some cases, judges have ordered hospitals to allow the use of other treatments, such as ivermectin. Some of those seriously ill patients have recovered. In other cases, judges have sided with hospitals and declined the families’ requests to try. 

Meanwhile, independent physicians like Balbona watch helplessly, feeling that when families ask, they should be allowed to try medications they believe can turn critically ill patients around. But independent doctors often have limited hospital privileges and may be banned from seeing their own patients in some hospitals. 

That was the case recently for Balbona, who was contacted by a worried wife after she read in The Epoch Times about his involvement in another family’s lawsuit seeking to try his recommendations.

Based on what the woman told him, Balbona said he felt strongly her husband could recover if treated with the regimen he prescribes for seriously ill COVID-19 patients. The treatment protocol he follows, with slight modifications based on each patient’s needs, was developed by the Front Line COVID-19 Critical Care Alliance. 

“The husband was very ill,” Balbona said. “He’s in his 50s, a big strong guy. She called me desperate because they gave him remdesivir [in the hospital] and she made them stop it, and he started getting worse and worse. And his oxygen demand went up.

By the time she called Balbona for help, her husband needed 60 liters of oxygen per minute. That’s too high to manage at home, even with rented medical equipment, Balbona said.

“If you can get them down to 40 or 50 [liters per minute] you can do high-flow oxygen at that level,” Balbona told The Epoch Times. “That’s a lot of oxygen.”

He said he promised he’d try if her husband improved enough to go home. And then he’d take over managing his care. Meanwhile, he said, he gave her prescriptions, so she could collect the medications she’d need at home. That was on a Friday.

He learned later that she’d filled the prescriptions, took the medications to the hospital, and gave them to her husband. By Tuesday, the man was discharged and fully following the protocol Balbona prescribed. A few days later, he was off the oxygen. Now, he’s recovering, Balbona said. But they’re afraid to share their good news publicly.A medical worker treats a non Covid-19 patient in the ICU ward at UMass Memorial Medical Center in Worcester, Massachusetts on Jan. 4, 2022. (JOSEPH PREZIOSO/AFP via Getty Images)

“The people who snuck in the ivermectin… they are scared to death,” Balbona said. “She is sure that the government is going to find out who she is” and possibly arrest her for giving medications not approved by the hospital.

He said she told him, “I did it. I knew it was wrong. I don’t know what the penalties are. What could they do to me?

And that’s the real crime, Balbona believes.

In New Hampshire, lawmakers now are considering legislation that would make the state the first in the country to make Ivermectin available as an over-the-counter medicine, and sanction it as a protected treatment for COVID-19. Similar bills in three other states have failed.

The bill’s sponsor,  Rep. Leah Cushman (R) is a registered nurse, who told The Epoch Times, “I have absolutely no doubt lives will be saved if human grade ivermectin was available to COVID patients.”

Two doctors testified about her proposed bill, warning the legislation could lead to dangerous side effects for people who use the drug. But Cushman believes she’ll have the votes to keep the bill moving toward becoming law.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has not approved the use of ivermectin as a treatment for COVID-19, though the drug is used in humans to treat a variety of conditions. 

An FDA web page warning against using ivermectin for COVID-19 also mentions that clinical trials investigating it as a treatment are ongoing.

The FDA has not responded to a Freedom of Information Act request (FOIA) asking for details about any reports of side effects related to the use of ivermectin — formulations for animals and humans —  to treat COVID-19. The agency also has not responded to a FOIA request for details about clinical trials and when the drug could reach the stage when its use under the Right To Try Act could be allowed.

Studies about the safety and efficacy of using ivermectin in the treatment for COVID-19 have led to all or part of 22 countries approving its use. But in the United States, doctors who rely on payments from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services aren’t allowed to use it. 

When Balbona heard about the proposed legislation, he immediately called two state senators, and two attorneys who are patients, suggesting that they propose similar legislation in Florida. Florida lawmakers currently are in session in Tallahassee through March 11.

“If we can get legislation to say, ‘Let the doctor do what he thinks is best,’ I think that would be wonderful,” Balbona said. “If New Hampshire can do this, why can’t we?”

Alice Giordano contributed to this report.

END

CROOKS!!

FDA Asks Court To Delay First 55K Batch Of COVID Docs; Pfizer Moves To Join Case

THURSDAY, JAN 27, 2022 – 10:50 AM

Authored by attorney Aaron Siri via Injecting Freedom (emphasis ours),

As explained in prior posts, in a lawsuit seeking all of the documents the FDA relied upon to license Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine, a federal judge shot down the FDA’s requested rate of 500 pages per month and instead ordered the FDA to produce at the rate of 55,000 pages per month starting on March 1. 

Since the government has trillions of dollars of our money, it is putting it to good use by fighting to assure that the public has the least amount of transparency possible.  To that end, it has now asked the Court to make the public wait until May for it to start producing 55,000 pages per month and, even then, claims it may not be able to meet this rate. 

The FDA’s excuse?  As explained in the brief opposing the FDA’s request, the FDA’s defense effectively amounts to claiming that the 11 document reviewers it has already assigned and the 17 additional reviewers being onboarded are only capable of reading at the speed of preschoolers. 

Meanwhile…

As the FDA tries to obtain months of delay, guess who just showed upon in the lawsuit?  Yep, Pfizer.  And it is represented by a global chair and team from a law firm with thousands of lawyers.  Pfizer’s legal bill will likely be multiple times what it would cost the FDA to simply hire a private document review company to review, redact, and produce the documents at issue.  Within weeks, if not days.

Pfizer is coming in as a third party.  But Pfizer assures the Court it is here to help expedite production of the documents.  Sure it is!  Where was Pfizer before the Court ordered the 55,000 pages per month?  Right, doing what it normally does: letting the government work on its behalf – like the way the government mandates, promotes, and defends Pfizer’s product. 

But the government did not please Pfizer this time and so here it comes, likely looking for a second bite at the apple.  Of course the FDA consented to Pfizer appearing.  You can read the response my firm filed to Pfizer’s motion , as well as all of the other relevant recent filings in the link provided below. 

Let me end by noting that all of this insanity is simply in response to an attempt to obtain some basic transparency.  This should again bring into sharp focus why the government should never coerce or mandate anyone to get an unwanted medical product or procedure.  Just look at this circus – the government mandates Pfizer’s product, gives it immunity for any safety or efficacy issues, promotes its product using taxpayer money, gives Pfizer over $17 billion and then uses taxpayers’ money to fight to avoid providing even the most basic level of transparency to the public.

The introduction from the brief opposing the FDA’s request is below and you can find copies of all the relevant court filings (FDA Motion to Modify Scheduling Order, January 18, 2022 / Plaintiff Opposition to Motion to Modify, January 24, 2022 / Pfizer Motion to Intervene, January 21, 2022 / FDA Response to Pfizer Motion, January 25, 2022 / Plaintiff Response to Pfizer Motion, January 25, 2022here:


INTRODUCTION TO OPPOSITION TO FDA’S MOTION

It is understandable that the FDA does not want independent scientists to review the documents it relied upon to license Pfizer’s vaccine given that it is not as effective as the FDA originally claimed, does not prevent transmission, does not prevent against certain emerging variants, can cause serious heart inflammation in younger individuals, and has numerous other undisputed safety issues.[1]  However, the FDA’s potential embarrassment over its decision to license this product must take a back seat to the transparency demanded by FOIA and the urgent need and interests of the American people to review that licensure data.  The Court already recognized this unprecedented urgent need in its January 6th order directing the FDA to produce 55,000 pages per month. 

The FDA now insists it must delay its first 55,000-page production until May 1, 2022 – four months after the Court entered its order.  However, the FDA’s own papers seeking this delay make plain it can produce at a rate of 55,000 pages per month in February and March.  The FDA affirms it has already “allocated the equivalent of nearly 11 full-time staff to this project” and that “a review speed of 50 documents per hour was within the normal range for document review in a complex matter” in private practice; and here the 50 document per hour rate would be faster since there is only a need to review for personally identifying information (“PII”) for most pages.  Hence, if the FDA’s 11 full-time reviewers work only 7.5 hours per day and review 50 pages (not documents) per hour, the FDA could review over 88,000 pages per month in February and March.  That is more than sufficient to produce the 55,000 pages per month currently ordered for these two months. 

Instead of complying with this Court’s reasoned order, the FDA claims these 11 reviewers can only review a total of 10,000 pages per month.  What the FDA does not say, and what basic math shows, is that a rate of 10,000 pages a month for 11 full-time reviewers amounts to only 5 pages per hour!  This rate is made even more absurd because most of the pages the FDA will be reviewing during this period are repetitive data files that only require second level review to redact minimal amounts of PII that Pfizer may have left in the documents.  FDA’s reality defying claim and contemptuous approach to its production obligations should not be countenanced.  (Infra § I.) 

It is also apparent that the instant demand is just the start of a campaign to delay the production ordered by the Court.  In this first salvo, the FDA is not really asking the Court.  It is instead expressly telling the Court it does not intend to produce more than 10,000 pages per month for February and March, and despite claiming it is making “unprecedented” efforts, the FDA repeatedly tells the Court: “It is not possible to guarantee that FDA will be able to fully comply” with the 55,000-page production rate thereafter.  (Dkt. No. 38 at APPX004, APPX008.)  Americans must follow the law and the FDA, a multi-billion-dollar agency, should similarly be given no safe harbor from complying with the orders of this Court.  (Infra § II.)

The FDA should also be held to what it attests.  The FDA, with over 18,000 employees and an over $3 billion discretionary budget, repeatedly assures the Court that it is taking steps to “marshal every possible resource available to it,” “acting with maximal urgency to assemble every possible resource available to it” and “putting every available resource at its disposal into its efforts to achieve compliance.”  (Dkt. No. 37 at 10, 3, 10.)  The FDA also attests that over the coming weeks, it will have 28.5 full-time people reviewing the documents.  Working 7.5 hours per day for 20 business days per month, 28.5 people reviewing 50 pages per hour can review a total of approximately 213,750 pages per month.  Putting aside that most of this production can be reviewed far faster than the rate of 50 pages per hour, Plaintiff asks that the FDA be held to its representations and be directed to produce at the rate of 180,000 pages per month starting in April.  (Infra § III.)

The Court is, other than Congress, the only check on the FDA.  In a free country, transparency is paramount, and the FDA has chosen to thwart transparency and the requirements of FOIA by anemically understaffing the office it maintains to respond to FOIA requests.  It is akin to the boy that kills his parents and asks for sympathy for being an orphan.  Decrying that this Court is now making it comply with the law – by actually producing documents in a timely manner – is ridiculous.  It is also incredible for the FDA to claim that compliance here would harm its health policy objectives.  Even if the FDA really does need to spend $4 to $5 million which, as shown below, is an absurd overestimate, that is an inconsequential amount of its overall $3.41 billion discretionary budget.  Moreover, the issues with the Pfizer vaccine – including waning immunity, variants evading immunity, the failure to prevent transmission, myocarditis, and pericarditis – show that the FDA’s priority should be to address this product before rushing off to engage in other activities.  (Infra § IV.)

For these reasons, as explained below, the Court should refuse to reduce the rate of production in February and March and should increase the rate of production for April and thereafter to 180,000 pages per month consistent with the FDA employing 28.5 full-time reviewers in the coming weeks to conduct the review and the fact that most of the pages need only be reviewed for PII.

…you can read the rest of the brief here

[1] Reflecting the issues with this product, the FDA failed to send a representative to a federal court hearing in this matter on December 14th because of the “FDA’s protocols” regarding COVID-19. Meaning, despite the FDA’s claim the vaccine is “effective,” the FDA is apparently still scared to send a representative to the hearing.  Its actions speak volumes and cast serious doubt on its words.

END

You have to read this: 40% of all Illinois COVID deaths in this last month are breakthrough!!

The correct explanation: vaccinated are losing their immunity

(Dabrowski/Klingner/Wirepoints)

Nearly 40% Of All Illinois COVID Deaths In The Last Month Are Breakthroughs. What Gives?

THURSDAY, JAN 27, 2022 – 04:21 PM

By Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner of WirePoints

Square this one up for us, Gov. Pritzker. On January 3rd, you said that only 5 percent of COVID patients in Illinois’ ICUs were vaxxed.* The implication was that Illinois is suffering from a “pandemic of the unvaccinated.”

But since your comment, nearly 40 percent of all COVID deaths have been breakthroughs.  Illinois has experienced 1,007 breakthrough deaths over the last four weeks.

That’s a massive disconnect. How can the vaxxed make up so few of the ICU patients – those most at risk of dying – and yet end up comprising so many of the total COVID deaths? 

Wirepoints can think of a couple scenarios that explain that disconnect, but we’re simply not armed with the data that would allow us to confirm them. IDPH doesn’t provide the hospitalization data we need, let alone more detailed data on breakthrough demographics and comorbidities.  

Which brings us to the actual point of this piece: The governor shouldn’t make comments that can’t be confirmed by publicly released data from the Illinois Department of Public Health.

This is far from the first time this has happened. Gov. Pritzker and Dr. Ezike have made statements throughout the pandemic that couldn’t be independently verified.

And that erodes trust, if there’s any left.

END

iiiA) important USA economic stories for you tonight

iii)B USA inflation commentaries//LOG JAMS//

‘Milkflation’ Fears Mount As Supply Dwindles, Dairy Group Warns

 WEDNESDAY, JAN 26, 2022 – 11:05 PM

Breakfast is the most important meal of the day, as it replenishes the body’s supply of glucose to boost energy until lunch while providing other essential nutrients. The first meal of the day usually consists of eggs, bacon, toast, fresh-squeezed orange juice, coffee, and milk. 

Today, breakfast foods are becoming expensive as food inflation soars to a decade high. Earlier this week, we noted how orange juice prices are rocketing higher due to supply woes in Florida. Now consumers must prepare for ‘milkflation’. 

This week, a new industry report from the National Milk Producers Federation warns milk supply is falling and isn’t going to recover in the near term, which could unleash dairy inflation. 

The dominant features of the basic U.S. dairy situation continue to be tighter milk production, record export volumes, higher prices, sluggish domestic consumption, and dropping inventories.

Total dairy cows and total milk production in the United States were both lower than a year earlier during the September-November rolling quarter.

December prices for nonfat dry milk and dry whey were the highest monthly prices since 2014; they, as well as December butter and cheese prices, were all among the highest observed during all months since the beginning of the year 2000. The long period of tough market conditions from 2014 until recently constitutes a major reason for the production contraction that’s driving the current situation.

The crux of the problem is the pandemic-related issues, such as dairy cows becoming too expensive to feed, so farmers reduced their herds by sending animals to slaughterhouses. The remaining cows are being fed less, which means lower milk output. Compound that with rising labor and energy costs, margin compression is hitting farmers where it hurts: the pocketbook. 

Milkflation is expected to persist “well into 2022,” the industry group said. Rising wholesale prices are already impacting supermarket prices where consumers are paying some of the highest average prices since 2015

Add milk to the latest breakfast item to experience inflationary price pressures. Other breakfast-designated commodities, such as oranges, lean hogs, wheat, and coffee, have risen over the last year due to supply-chain disruptions and bad weather has kept supplies low. 

Rising breakfast costs come as inflation for households hit a 40 year high in December, a 7% spike from a year earlier. Real wages are being wiped out as households become frustrated as their purchasing power slumps. Much of this anger has been channeled at President Biden as his polling numbers plummet

The Direxion Breakfast Commodities Strategy exchange-traded fund is set to release an exchange-traded fund that focuses on coffee, orange juice, wheat, and lean-hog futures to allow speculators to play the inflation breakfast trade. 

END

iv)swamp stories

END

KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES

Energy and industrial commodities were up sharply during the first 30 minutes of NYSE trading; gold was down $15.00; the dollar was up modestly; Bitcoin was up sharply.
 
By the end of the first hour of NYSE trading, Nasdaq had three moves of 1% or more; ESHs had declined 50 handles from their 10:02 ET peak.  Is this natural activity? 
 
To reiterate ad nauseum, over the past few decades, Congress has allowed the big money to rig the stock market in lieu of munificent donations and mushrooming personal trading and investment accounts.  The fact that Pelosi and other US ‘leaders’ are active option traders, on the bull side, is all you need to know as to why US regulators allow the incessant rigging and manipulation of stocks to the upside.
 
@NorthmanTrader: As the Fed has inserted itself ever more into markets over the last 13 years the entire financial equity construct has devolved in a giant ‘game the Fed’ operation
 
@zerohedge: If it feels like everything is trading as one, it’s because during market crises cross-asset correlations = 1
    @BP_Rising: Or it’s because of Blackrock’s Aladdin trading robot allocated with trillions in capital.

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate. The Committee decided to continue to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases, bringing them to an end in early March. Beginning in February, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $20 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $10 billion per month. The Federal Reserve’s ongoing purchases and holdings of securities will continue to foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses…
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220126a.htm

@NickTimiraos: The Fed released a statement of principles for balance sheet runoff that doesn’t provide much new detail: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220126c.htm

Because even Biden has lambasted Powell over inflation, the beleaguered Fed CEO arrogantly boasted, “We were able to stave off the collapse of the financial system.

Powell Press Conference Highlights

  • “Today…the Federal Open Market Committee kept its policy interest rate near zero and stated its expectation that an increase in this rate would soon be appropriate.”
  • We will decide about hiking rates at the March 16 FOMC Meeting.
  • It’s time to halt asset purchases
  • We haven’t made the decision yet on when runoff will begin” or the pace of the selling
  • We want the balance sheet shrinking to be orderly and predictable
  • It’s too early to judge if the Fed was too easy and caused inflation.
  • The Fed can’t predict the monetary policy path amid this economic uncertainty
  • There is a risk that inflation will stay higher longer than the Fed expected
  • High inflation is a big threat to the labor market
  • Powell channeled Norm Crosby: “I’m not aware of inflation literally falling more on different socioeconomic groups. That’s not the point. The point is some people are just really prone to suffer more.”
  • We monitor the slope of the yield curve, but we don’t control it.
  • On the 75bp US 2 & 10-year Treasury spread: “That’s well within the range of a normal curve.”
  • I would say that most FOMC participants agree that labor market conditions are consistent with maximum employment in the sense of the highest level of employment that is consistent with price stability, and that is my view.”
  • “There are many millions more job openings than there are unemployed people.  I think there’s quite a bit of room to raise interest rates without threatening the labor market.”

Positive aspects of previous session
Multiple and concerted manipulation throughout the day
The dollar rallied sharply, gaining strength after the FOMC Communique & Powell’s presser

Negative aspects of previous session
Energy and industrial commodities rallied sharpy; natgas surged on frigid weather in the US
US equity indices closed lower, ex-Nasdaq, despite blatant and recurring manipulations
The S&P 500 Index rescinded a 2% gain for first time since April 2020
The Fed remains way behind on the inflation and yield curve

@thedickbutkus: given the market turmoil I am giving serious thought to launching my own cryptic currency. maybe the world needs butcoin can be used to purchase deep dish pizza and Chicago beef
 
Hoyer agrees with Biden that midterms could be illegitimate, then walks it back
His office said after a backlash he does not believe elections will be illegitimate without ‘voting rights’ legislation – “President Biden is correct,” Hoyer told Politico when asked if he agrees with Biden’s claim last week that the midterms could be “illegitimate” if the federal election overhaul package is not passed. “This is about our Democracy. This is about an America that really believes in making sure that the people’s voice is heard and reflected in the outcome of the election.”…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hoyer-says-he-does-not-agree-with-biden-that-midterms-could-be-illegitimate-after-appearing-to-back-claim
 
Team Biden’s ‘Wag the Dog’ Ukraine gambit to boost Joe’s abysmal ratings might be another error.  Rasmussen reports that only 31% of Americans favor sending US troops to defend Ukraine.
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/january_2022/only_31_want_u_s_troops_to_defend_ukraine
 
After the close, Tesla reported Q4 EPS of 2.54, 2.36 was expected.  The stock initially jumped to 957.61 at 16:02 ET.  It then plunged to 880 at 15:07 ET because Tesla said supply chain woes will force its factories to run below capacity thru 2022.  TSLA soon rebounded to 955. The stock market is a travesty!
 
@dwnews: Political advisers from Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France have agreed to an “unconditional observance of the cease fire” in eastern Ukraine.  Another meeting between the four countries will be held in Berlin in two weeks.
 
Today – Stocks have been declining sharply since January 4 despite consistent and massive manipulation to keep stocks from even large losses.  Fangs and techs are being bought ahead of their Q4 results.  ‘Tis why Nasdaq was the only equity indices in the green for Wednesday.  Apple reports after the close.  Rumors about its results could impact afternoon trading.
 
Given the massive and pervasive manipulation to keep equities from plunging, there is no way to guess what will occur today.  However, given the chance, the usual suspects could commence the manipulation to game January performance late today.  ESHs opened flat at 18:00 ET; someone then manipulated them to +26.50 by 17:34 ET.  ESHs hit -39.25 at 20:18 ET.  Same old Schiff, different day. 
 
Expected Economic Data: Q4 GDP 5.3%, Consumption 3.2%, GDP Price Index 6%, Core PCE 4.9%; Initial Jobless Claims 265k, Continuing Claims 1.665m; Dec Durable Goods Orders -0.6% m/m, ex-Trans +0.4%, Nondef ex-Air +0.4%, Shipments 0.5%; Dec Pending Home Sales -0.8% m/m; KC Fed Mfg 21
 
Expected earnings: DOW 2.01, DHR 2.54, MKC .80, MMC 1.34, LUV .12, ROK 1.93, IP .89, NOC 5.98, CMCSA .73, HCA 4.49, ALK .24, MCD 2.34, MO 1.08, AAPL 1.90, MDLZ .73, MA 2.22
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4648; 100-day MA: 4570; 150-day MA: 4514; 200-day MA: 4433                                                                                          
DJIA 50-day MA: 35,612; 100-day MA: 35,359; 150-day MA: 35,230; 200-day MA 34,971

@ezralevant: This is not a fake.  (The Big Guy not sounding presidential, again.)
https://twitter.com/ezralevant/status/1486470075838308359
 
NEW FOOTAGE Shows Ashli Babbitt Punched Violent Rioter Who Was Breaking Windows In The Face Just Seconds Before She Was Shot Dead – That is Ashli’s fist connecting to the face of Zachary J. Alam. He had just broken two windows when Babbitt punched him In the face and sent his glasses flying. At the same time, Ashli yelled at the Capitol Police to call for backup. This occurred just moments before Lt Byrd shot Babbitt own in cold blood Ashli Babbitt attempted to stop the violent protesters who were breaking the windows…  https://djhjmedia.com/steven/new-footage-shows-ashli-babbitt-punched-violent-rioter-who-was-breaking-windows-in-the-face-just-seconds-before-she-was-shot-dead-video/
 
The Neocons’ Primary War Tactic: Branding Opponents of U.S. Intervention as Traitors
By rehabilitating neocons and elevating them as thought leaders, liberals live in their framework. Thus are opponents of U.S. involvement in Ukraine deemed treasonous.
https://greenwald.substack.com/p/the-neocons-primary-war-tactic-branding
 
Fox’s @ChadPergram: Dem WA Sen Murray: In the wake of Justice Breyer’s retirement, I want to voice my support for President Biden in his pledge to nominate the first Black woman to the Supreme Court.
 
Psaki: Biden stands by his promise to nominate a black woman to the Supreme Court.
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1486424406104678403
 
@gayletrotter: Joe Biden filibustered and voted against Janice Rogers Brown (Black woman, W Bush nominee to US Court of Appeals)— TWICE!  (Why wasn’t this brought up during the campaign?)
 
@JonathanTurley: Jen Psaki just reaffirmed that the President will only consider a black woman for the next nomination — a threshold gender and race condition that the Court itself has found unconstitutional for schools and unlawful for private businesses.
https://jonathanturley.org/2020/03/19/supreme-identity-politics-biden-pledges-to-only-consider-black-females-for-supreme-court-pick/
 
@nytimes: Democrats may have to act quickly to prevent the Supreme Court from becoming more conservative — if they lose a single Senate seat in the midterms, the chamber’s balance of power will flip, making it harder for President Biden’s nominee to be confirmed.
    Justice Stephen Breyer, who is expected to retire after 27 years on the Supreme Court, leaves a legacy as a moderate liberal who voted similarly to other Democratic appointees. But he rejected the notion that politics played any role in the court’s work.
 
Senate Democratic leader Schumer pledges prompt hearing to replace Supreme Court Justice Breyer, who will retire after 27 years https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bidens-nominee-replace-justice-breyer-receive-prompt-senate-hearing-schumer-2022-01-26/
 
For the past few months, reports have circulated that a way for Biden to remedy his Kamala Harris problem would be to nominate her for the Supreme Court.  If this transpires, the machinations to get the historically unpopular Harris confirmed in the Senate will be extraordinary. 
 
The Supreme Court term runs through June; the midterm elections are in November.  Breyers has been under pressure to resign for months.  He has succumbed to the pressure from the left.  Breyer and Dems know they will lose control of Congress. 
 
@greg_price11: I hope Manchin and Sinema never forget the time Biden compared them to Bull Connor and George Wallace when they consider his new Supreme Court justice
 
The Constitutional Argument Against the Vice President Casting Tie-Breaking Votes on Judicial Nominees  https://cardozolawreview.com/the-constitutional-argument-against-the-vice-president-casting-tie-breaking-votes-on-judicial-nominees/
 
Leftist Harvard Law Professor Lawrence Tribe: The vice president doesn’t have the power to break a tie on the appointment… While the vice president has the power to cast a tiebreaking vote to pass a bill, the Constitution does not give him the power to break ties when it comes to the Senate’s “Advice and Consent” role in approving presidential appointments to the Supreme Court.  You don’t have to take my word for it. Alexander Hamilton said the same thing way back in 1788, in Federalist No. 69: “In the national government, if the Senate should be divided, no appointment could be made.” …
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/09/23/opinion/no-hiding-behind-pences-skirt-supreme-court-nomination/
https://originalismblog.typepad.com/the-originalism-blog/2021/01/does-laurence-tribe-still-think-the-vice-president-cannot-break-appointments-ties-in-the-senatemicha.html
 
Fox’s @ShannonBream: Multiple sources tell me Justice Breyer was not planning to announce his retirement today.  They describe him as “upset” with how this has played out.  (It makes him very political!) We still await any official notice from his office and/or the SCOTUS public information office.
 
@mrglenn: Does anyone really believe the White House ‘didn’t’ leak Justice Breyer’s retirement news? They want that guy to hit the bricks NOW so they can start on his replacement while they still have a majority in the Senate.
 
@EmmaJoNYC: If Kamala is put on SCOTUS she would be the first justice who has failed the bar

end

Well that is all for today, I will see you tomorrow night

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