FEB 24

 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment ·Edit

GOLD;  $1925.25 UP $17.35

SILVER: $24.64 UP 15 CENTS

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1898.70

SILVER: $24.08

Bitcoin:  morning price: $35,218 DOWN 2438

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $38,386 UP 730

Platinum price: closing DOWN $39.55 to $1052.10

Palladium price; closing DOWN $99.90  at $2351.10

END

end

DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

comex notices//JPMorgan  notices filed//comex notices//JPMorgan  notices filed  168/695

  EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,909.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/23/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 02/25/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED  

  118 C MACQUARIE FUT 22
332 H STANDARD CHARTE 21
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 56
365 H ED&F MAN CAPITA 2
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 25
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 193
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 4
661 C JP MORGAN 695 86
661 H JP MORGAN 82
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 5
905 C ADM 52
991 H CME 146 

 TOTAL: 695 695
MONTH TO DATE: 18,916  

---

---

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB. CONTRACT:695 NOTICE(S) FOR 69,500 OZ  (2.1617  TONNES)

total notices so far:  18,915 contracts for 1,891,500 oz (58.836 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

37 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  185,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  2022  :  for 10,110,000  oz

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $17.35

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

HUGE CHANGES AT THE GLD:  A MASSIVE 5.23 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/

CLOSING INVENTORY :1029.32 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 15 CENTS:/:

AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// 

CLOSING INVENTORY: 551.597 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL  265 CONTRACTS TO 163,400  AND RESTS CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND WITH  THIS STRONG GAIN IN OI, IT WAS ACCOMPANIED WITH OUR STRONG $0.22 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.22) AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS  AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 2225 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES .

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A  STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 100,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 10.120 MILLION OZ.         V)    SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS.

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  -280

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 17 days, total  contracts: :  10,913 contracts or 54.565 million oz  OR 3.209 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (6419CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 10,913 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 54.565 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 10 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  47.780 MILLION OZ//

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO SILVER) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAR.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JAN HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 265 DESPITE OUR STRONG  $0.22 GAIN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  STRONG  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF  1357 CONTRACTS( 1357 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB OF 4.1 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 100,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  //NEW STANDING 10.120, MILLION OZ//  .. WE HAD A VERY STRONG  SIZED GAIN OF 1092 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 11.125 MILLION OZ//

 WE HAD 37 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  185,000 OZ

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD 6698 TO 618.186 AND CLOSER TO  OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: +280  CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

HOWEVER THE FRBNY IS IN THERE MANIPULATING SILVER

.

THE  STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.40//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST  HAD  HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AS THE TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES TOTALED  7441 CONTRACTS…

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB AT 64.3 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 800 OZ QUEUE. JUMP     //NEW STANDING: 58.995 TONNES      

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF ONLY  $2.40 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7721  OI CONTRACTS (24.01 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED  1023 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 618,186.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7441, WITH 6418 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1023 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7721 CONTRACTS OR 24.01TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1023) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (6698,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 7721 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 64.30 TONNES WHICH FOLLOWS TODAY’S  800 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 58.995 TONNES//  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ,4)  STRONG SIZED COMEX OI. GAIN 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

FEB

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :

53,294 CONTRACTS OR 5,329,400 OR 165.76  TONNES 17 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3134 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 165.76 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  165.76/3550 x 100% TONNES  4.64% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           145.12 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           165.76 TONNES//INITIAL

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A  SMALL SIZED  265 CONTRACTS TO 163,400  AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  4 1/2 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1357 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 1357  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1357 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 265 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1357 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1092 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.460 MILLION  OZ, 

OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.22 GAIN IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 59.19 PTS OR 1.70%       //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 758.72 PTS OR 3.21%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 478=3,79 or 1.81%       //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.95%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.324    /Oil UP TO 98.91 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 104.45 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3353. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3363: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFF SHORE WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA//USA/OUTLINE

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 6698 CONTRACTS  AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS GOOD  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $2.40 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP (1023 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. 

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE   ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1023 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,   & FEB. 0 APRIL:1023 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1023 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A  STRONG  7721 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 1023 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG  COMEX OI GAIN OF 6698  CONTRACTS..

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB   (58.995),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

FEB 2022: 58.995 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $2.40) AND  THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAVE  REGISTERED A STRONG GAIN OF 23.144 TONNES OF TOTAL OI, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB (58.995 TONNES)…

WE HAD  –1133 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7721 CONTRACTS OR 772100 OZ OR 24.01 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 389,302 ///strong

Confirmed volume yesterday: 168,191 contracts  poor 

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB ’22 COMEX GOLD //FEB 24

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	107,094.990 oz BRINKS 3331 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	nil
No of oz served (contracts) today	695  notice(s) 69,500 OZ 2.1617 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	52 contracts  5200 oz 0.1617 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	18,915 notices 1,891,500 OZ 58.836 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	xxx oz

For today:

0 dealer deposit 

No dealer withdrawal 0

0 customer deposit

total deposit: NIL oz

1 customer withdrawals

i) BRINKS: 107,094.990 oz (3331 kilobars)

total withdrawals:  107,094.990     oz  

ADJUSTMENTS:  2//customer to dealer

a) 61,995.881 oz//JPMorgan

b) 96.453 oz Manfra  (3 kilobars)

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 747 stand LOSING 253 contracts. 

We had 261 contracts served upon yesterday, so we GAINED 8 contracts or an additional 800 oz will  stand on this side of the pond looking for gold metal.

The month of March saw a LOSS OF 328 contracts and thus the OI standing is 4305.

April saw a GAIN of 2863 contracts UP to 473,859.

June saw a gain of 2821 contracts up to 83,377 contracts

We had 261 notice(s) filed today for 26,100  oz FOR THE FEB 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 695 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 695 contract(s) of which 86  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 82 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0  notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (18,915) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (FEB: 747 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  695 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,896,700 OZ  OR 58.995 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of FEB. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month:

No of notices filed so far (18,915) x 100 oz+   (747)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (695} x 100 oz} which equals 1,896,000 oz standing OR 58.995 TONNES in this  active delivery month of FEB.

We GAINE 8 contracts or an additional 800 oz will   stand for gold over here

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  58.895 TONNES  (HUGE FOR A FEBRUARY DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

157,392.690, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  4.89 TONNES

125,410.592 PLEDGED  MANFRA 2.90 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690

278,349.354, oz  JPM No 2  8.65 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged  Brinks/27,96 TONNES

12,249,333 oz International Delaware:  0..3810 tonnes

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold:  1,543,731.047 oz                                     48.01 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIZ GOLD AT THE COMEX: 32,528,644.909  OZ (1011.77 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 15,185,929.397 OZ (472.34 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,342,715.512 OZ  (539.43 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,798,984.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  491.41 tonnes

END

FEBRUARY 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER

INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER//FEB 24

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,689,317.360  oz Brinks CNT Manfra HSBC JPMorgan Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	609,267.722 oz CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)	37CONTRACT(S) 185,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	2 contracts (10,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	2022 contracts 10,110,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits:  nil       oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into CNT  609,267.722 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 182.9 million oz/348.826 million =52.43% of comex 

ii) Comex withdrawals: 5

a)Out of CNT 466,609.9 oz

b) Out of Brinks:  4064.86 oz

c) Out of Delaware 1029.600 oz

d) Out of HSBC  24m116.300 oz

e)out of JPMorgan 584,232.990

f) Out of Manfra:  609,267.720 oz

total withdrawal 1,689,317.360 oz

we had 3 adjustments//3 dealer to customer account

i) JPMorgan  140,292.00 oz

ii)  Brinks 449,232.100 oz

iii) OUT OF LOOMIS  564.440.47 oz

iv) customer to dealer/ Manfra  932,225.690 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 81.112 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 348.84 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF FEB//2022 OI: 39 CONTRACTS LOSING 130 contracts on the day. We had  150 contracts served upon yesterday.

So we gained 20 contracts or an additional 100,000 oz will stand for silver on this side of the pond.

FOR MARCH WE HAD A LOSS OF 8174 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 31,284 CONTRACTS.

APRIL HAD A 21GAIN// CONTRACTS RISING TO 410

MAY HAD A  GAIN OF 7396 CONTRACTS UP TO 109,288 contracts

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 37 for 185,000 oz

Comex volumes: 180,822// est. volume today//huge/

Comex volume: confirmed TUESDAY: 103,166 contracts (STRONG)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  2022 x 5,000 oz =. 10,110,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB (39) and the number of notices served upon today 37 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the FEB./2021 contract month: 2022 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEB (39)  – number of notices served upon today (37) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the FEB contract month equates 10,120,000 oz. .

We gained 20  CONTRACTS OR 100,000 ADDITIONAL oz of silver will stand at the comex.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

/

FEB 24/WITH GOLD UP $17.35//A HUGE  CHANGE AT THE GLD: 5.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD// IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $6.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD UP $29.50: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP 414.60 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.70 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $27.20 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.50 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD IVNETORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.48 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONES

FEB 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD UP $8.05//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $5.95 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.36 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1015.96 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $14.00 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1011.60 TONNES//

FEB 4/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.84 TONNES

FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.55: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1016.59 TONNES

FEB 2/WITH GOLD UP $7.95//A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.78 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1018.04 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $10.10//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.30//NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.15//ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1014.26 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.60 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1013.10 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $10.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES

JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $10.10 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AN UNBELIEVABLE DEPOSIT OF 27.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1008.45 TONNES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1029.32 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ

FEB 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 350,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.017 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.227 MILLION OZ

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.402 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.210 MILLION OZ/

FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLIONOZ

FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ//

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.235 MILLION OZ INTO THES LV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ///

SLV/FEB 10/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 9/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.143 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ//

FEB 7/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.218 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.430 MILLION OZ/

FEB 4/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILION OZ

FEB 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 35 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT539.212 MILLION OZ//

FEB 2/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.411 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 539.212 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.202 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 533.801 MILLION OZ//

JAN 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS : NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 27/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ//

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.311 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 535.003 MILLION OZ/

.JAN 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: A MASSIVE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.8 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 532.692 MILLION OZ//.

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 551.597 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

end

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James  RICKARD

-END-

3.  Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

With Russia entering Ukraine, most commodities jumped into backwardation i.e. the front month higher than future months

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Backwardation in commodities jumps with tensions over Ukraine

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-02-23 21:20Section: Daily Dispatches

By Michael Roschnotti and Gerson Freitas Jr.
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, February 23, 2022

Commodities are being priced near their highest premium on record to deliveries one year ahead, a measure known as backwardation that reflects how physical supplies of everything from oil to corn remain tight amid booming demand and rising geopolitical tensions. 

The 23 energy, raw-material, and crop futures that make up the Bloomberg Commodity Index were about 6% higher than their one-year forward contracts at the close today, according to Bloomberg calculations. That’s higher than any month-end backwardation rate in at least 15 years. 

While the reopening of major economies from lockdowns unleashed pent-up demand for transportation fuel and materials used in manufacturing, new mining and oil developments stalled and bad weather hurt crops. 

To make matters worse, Europe went through an unprecedented energy crisis this winter, and now the Russia-Ukraine tensions are clouding the outlook for oil, gas and wheat supplies from the two nations. 

In raw-material markets, futures are typically pricier at longer maturities because those reflect the cost of carrying inventories over time as well as future demand expectations — a structure known as contango. But when markets fear scarcity and demand for products is urgent, they flip into backwardation. …
  
… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-23/commodities-backwardation-jumps-on-russia-ukraine-escalation

end

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES/EDIBLE OILS/HUGE PRICE INCREASES//

Record-High Global Food Prices Imminent As Edible Oil Soars

BY TYLER DURDEN

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Edible oil prices soared this week, prompting fears that record-high food prices could be imminent. On Wednesday, soybean oil futures in Chicago hit their highest levels since 2008, and palm oil, the commodity used in thousands of food products, jumped to new highs.

Soybean prices increased 1.4% to 71 cents per pound, the highest level since 2008. US canola futures are also on the verge of an all-time high, and palm oil in Malaysia hit a new record high of $1,434 per ton. 

“Drought has crimped soybean crops across South America this season. Rival oilseeds like palm and canola have also suffered shortfalls from adverse weather and labor shortages. And escalating political tensions involving Ukraine and Russia pose a risk for sunflower oil exports, which the two countries dominate,” according to Bloomberg. 

Ivy Ng, the regional head of plantations research at CGS-CIMB Securities, said,

“for the supply side, everything that could go wrong, went wrong; problems “hit all the key producing countries, whether it’s palm oil or a competing oil. There’s no reprieve in the short term, and people are reacting to that.”

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs’ Jeff Currie warned that shortages across commodities could send higher prices. He said markets are “incredibly tight from a physical perspective” … “we are out of everything, I don’t care if its oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.”

Soaring edible oils could be the next catalyst that catapults the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) Food Price Index (FFPI), a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities, to a new record high for February. New FFPI data is expected in early March. As for now, FFPI sits near a record high in terms of January prices. 

Abdul Hameed, director of sales at Manzoor Trading in Lahore, Pakistan, said the edible oil is in “uncharted territory,” and prices could climb even higher. He said, “the global supply and demand situation is a very, very big concern.”

For those in the Western world, food inflation is already leaving a mark on lower-income households, and the “worst has yet to come,” according to John Allan, chairman of Tesco Plc. 

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.3364

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3353

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 758.72 PTS OR 3.21%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN478,79 PTS O 1.8%5

3. Europe stocks  ALL RED   

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  97.11/Euro FALLS TO 1.1171-

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.187/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 114.85/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 98,91 and Brent: 104.85–

3f Gold REALLY UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE CLOSED DOWN//  OFF- SHORE  DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.0.137%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 1.92% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 1.21%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.79: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.58

3k Gold at $1964.20 silver at: 25.30   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 392/100 in roubles/dollar;ROUBLE AT 85.36

3m oil into the 98 dollar handle for WTI and 104 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 114.81 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9236– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0312 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.865 DOWN 13 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.17 DOWN 13 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.46

Global Stocks, Futures Crash; Nasdaq In Bear Market, Oil Soars Above $105 On Russia Attack

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 07:45 AM

U.S. stock index futures crashed along with global markets on Thursday as Russia’s assault on Ukraine sent investors fleeing risky assets, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq was set to open in a bear market. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were down 2.9% by 7 a.m. in New York, having dropped as much as 3.6% earlier and signaling that the underlying gauge was poised to fall 20% from its November record high for the first time since the pandemic; the S&P 500 was down 2.23% or 98 points to, 4,214, while Dow futures lost 2.3%.  The flight to safety saw the 10-year Treasury yield tumble 14 basis points to under 1.9%. Gold hit the highest since September 2020, while the dollar also spiked higher.

The Nasdaq was set to open in a bear market, with NQ futures down more than 20% from its all time highs just two months ago…

… while the VIX spiked higher, and was last just around 37, up almost 10 points on the day.

Russian forces assaulted targets across Ukraine after Putin ordered an operation aimed at demilitarizing the country. Putin said Russia doesn’t plan to “occupy” its neighbor but that action was necessary after the U.S. and its allies crossed Russia’s “red line” by expanding the NATO alliance. Military vehicles breached into the Kyiv region that borders Belarus, Ukraine’s Border Guard Service said in a statement.

Western powers condemned the military incursion and vowed to step up penalties on Russia — President Joe Biden said the U.S. and its allies will impose “severe sanctions.” European leaders are planning sanctions that will target Russian banks. The government in Kyiv called it a “full-scale invasion” as it declared martial law and called for international support including harsher sanctions on Russia.

“Stock markets were already hit and are now pricing in further military escalation in Ukraine. The selloff will therefore continue,” Norbert Frey, head of portfolio management at Fuerst Fugger Privatbank, said in an email. “We expect volatility to rise in the coming weeks, which will require investors to have good nerves. We will see a flight into supposedly safe government bonds, gold and, above all, cash – at least temporarily.”

The escalation in the Ukraine conflict comes at a time when financial markets were already grappling with surging inflation and the economic impact of hawkish central bank policies. All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next month, where analysts still expect it to raise interest rates, but deliver fewer-than-expected hikes through the rest of the year.

“It’s an absolute lose-lose for central banks because they will have no control whatsoever over inflation risk,” said Michael Hewson, senior markets analyst at CMC Markets UK. “I still think the Federal Reserve will hike rates in March. They have to, if only try and normalize rates, but do I think we’ll get seven hikes this year? I think we’ll be lucky to get two.”

U.S. tech giants were among the biggest decliners in pre-market trading as Russian forces launched a “military operation” targeting military command centers across Ukraine after President Vladimir Putin vowed to “demilitarize” the country and replace its leaders, triggering the worst security crisis in Europe since World War II as the West threatened further punishing sanctions in response. Energy stocks, on the other hand, were outliers as the attacks sent Brent oil prices surging above $105 a barrel and WTI above $100…

… sending energy names higher: Exxon +3.7%, Marathon Oil +5.8%, and so on. European natural gas also soared on possible risks to Russian energy exports.

Among individual stocks, EBay plunged 10% in premarket after the company warned its first-quarter sales will miss estimates as shoppers return to pre-pandemic spending habits. Analysts said fourth-quarter results were broadly in line with expectations, while the guidance disappointed. At least four reduced their price targets.  Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Skillz (SKLZ US) shares tumble 38% in premarket trading after the mobile games company gave a forecast for 2022 revenue that fell short of even the lowest analyst estimate.
• Macy’s (M US) upgraded to neutral from sell at Citi after stock this week fell below its $25 target price, saying in note that risk/reward for the department store owner now appears to be balanced.
• Pulmonx Corp. (LLUNG US) dropped 22% postmarket Wednesday after the medical device maker released revenue guidance that fell short of analysts’ estimates.
• Rent-A-Center (RCII US) sank 37% premarket after giving an outlook for adjusted earnings per share for 2022 that trails even the lowest analyst estimate.
• NetApp (NTAP US) fell 6.4% in postmarket trading after the data and storage company announced it bought Fylamynt, a venture-backed cloud automation company, for an undisclosed sum.
• Clover Health Investments Corp. (CLOV US) shares surged by 26% in postmarket trading Wednesday after the company forecast revenue for 2022 that beat the average analyst estimate. The company’s fourth quarter revenue also came in ahead of expectations.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks also plunged in premarket trading Thursday after Bitcoin slumped back below the $35,000 level amid a global shift away from risk assets. Bitcoin falls as much as 8.5% and trades at $34,940 as of 6:33 a.m. in New York, other digital tokens are also lower this morning with Ether falling 10%, while Litecoin sinks 13% and Monero drops 11%. Crypto stocks that are lower in premarket include Riot Blockchain -9.1%, Hut 8 Mining -8.9%, Marathon Digital -8.7%, Ebang -8.7%, Bakkt -8.5%, Mogo -7.8%, Block -6.9%, Coinbase -5.6%, Silvergate -5.6%, MicroStrategy -4.1%, Hive Blockchain 5%, and BitNile -2.1%.

Elsewhere, the Stoxx 600 Europe index shed 4% and Asian equities fell to the lowest since 2020. Banks, travel and autos are the worst-performing sectors. Russian shares slumped the most on record after a trading suspension ended; the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) was down 25% after plunging more than 30% earlier.

European banks extend their drop and are the region’s worst-performing sector amid a global selloff after Russia attacked targets across Ukraine. The Stoxx 600 Banks Index is down 6.1% at 10:15am in London, while the broader benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index is 3.3% lower. Raiffeisen slumps 16% to the lowest level since July, while Erste Bank falls 10%, most since March 2020. Polish lenders PKO Bank and Bank Pekao drop 12%, while Lloyds Banking Group is 8.7% lower after its earnings missed estimates. UniCredit declines 9.1%, the most since December 2020, before trading is halted. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

• Oil companies lead gains on the Stoxx 600 as the Brent crude price climbed past $105 for the first time since 2014, with Norwegian oil firms Equinor (+4.6%) and Aker BP (+4.2%) among the top performers.
• Anglo American shares rise to an all-time high and outperform its European peers, after the company posted record earnings and announced shareholder returns that exceeded expectations.
• BAE Systems rise rise as much as 6.5% after reporting surprisingly strong free cash flow that Citi (buy) said shows the company is backing its profit growth with cash.
• European stocks with exposure to Russia plummet after Russian forces attack targets across Ukraine, lead declines on the Stoxx 600, including miner Polymetal International (-35%) and fashion retailer LPP (-24%).
• The European banking sector also drops after the Russian attack, and is the worst performing sector in the region, with Raiffeisen (-17%) leading declines.
• Renault, which counts Russia as its second-biggest market, drops as much as 13%, the most intraday since June 2020. Other automotive stocks with Russia exposure fall, too.
• Rolls- Royce shares decline as much as 19% on its latest earnings. Analysts highlight the ongoing challenges that the firm is facing as results, guidance, and CEO transition weigh on the shares.
• BP falls as much as 5.7% to the lowest level in a month after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The oil giant has 20% stake in Russia’s Rosneft, which plunged as much as 59% in Moscow.
• ISS shares fall as much as 10% after the company presented its latest earnings. It’s CEO says the 2022 guidance “may be” a bit conservative but that it reflects global uncertainties.
• Hikma falls as much as 9.6% on its latest earnings. Morgan Stanley says Hikma’s generics business will face headwinds in 2022 — but an announced share buyback will “alleviate the downside.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks slumped as geopolitical fears of an imminent strike on Ukraine came to fruition. The ASX 200 fell beneath the 7k level with losses led by tech and miners despite Rio Tinto’s record profit. Nikkei 225 slumped below 26k for the first time since late 2020, mired by geopolitics and haven flows. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. weakened as bourses were hit by the Russian offensive with Hong Kong dragged lower by tech as Alibaba shares slumped ahead of earnings.

Japanese stocks fell for the seventh time in eight sessions after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ordered a military attack on Ukraine. Electronics makers and trading houses were the biggest drags on the Topix, which fell 1.3%. Fast Retailing and SoftBank Group were the largest contributors to a 1.8% loss in the Nikkei 225. The Japan market was closed for a holiday Wednesday. Russian forces assaulted targets across Ukraine after Putin ordered an operation aimed at demilitarizing the country, prompting Ukraine’s foreign minister to warn of a “full-scale invasion.” Putin said Russia doesn’t plan to “occupy” its neighbor, but that Russia must “defend itself from those who took Ukraine hostage”. U.S. President Joe Biden called Putin’s move “an unprovoked and unjustified attack” and said the “world will hold Russia accountable.” “The market’s at a loss of where the right bottom will be” for Japan stocks, said Hideyuki Suzuki, a general manager at SBI Securities. “Share prices are likely to continue showing big swings until at least the next FOMC meeting.”

In rates, fixed income rallied as risk assets tumbled: bonds, oil, gold and the dollar gained. U.S. 10-year yields were around 1.85%, richer by ~14bp vs Wednesday’s close, vs session low 1.844%; 2-year yields around 1.49%. Treasuries broadly hold overnight gains into early U.S. session after Russia began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, unleashing a strong flight-to-quality bid across the curve at the start of the Asia session. The U.S. session includes 7-year note auction and a host of Fed speakers. Front- end swaps erased some Fed rate-hike premium into the risk-off move, leaving around 28bp priced into the March meeting and 150bp — or six 25bp moves — priced into the December FOMC. Gilts 10-year yield slides 10bps to 1.38%, bunds -9bps to 0.136%, while 10-year UST yield falls 14bps to 1.86%. U.K. 10-year real yield is down 24bps, set for its biggest drop since 2016.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced a third consecutive day, rising by as much as 0.5%, as the greenback climbed against all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen. The developments in Ukraine have brought mass risk aversion in the market and long-volatility trades serve as a haven. Still, term structures in the euro and the pound aren’t fully inverted and central bank risks are behind the moves.Currency options and volatility term structures are no longer in normalized mode. Demand for long gamma in yen crosses stands out; euro-yen one- week implied rises by as much as 272 basis points to touch 11.59 vols, the most since June 2020. 10-year Treasury yields tumbled by as much as 13 basis points to 1.86, though the drop was most pronounced at the belly of the curve. The euro plunged to more than a three-week low of $1.1209, before paring losses slightly. The pound fell and gilts rallied in broad risk-off trading as Russia attacked Ukraine. Money markets scaled back bets on a 50-basis-point hike from the Bank of England in March, pricing around 30bps of tightening. Scandinavian and Antipodean currencies led the slump among G-10 peers; Norway’s krone is the second worst G-10 performer as risk aversion outweighs surging oil prices. Japan’s yen rose to its highest in three weeks while bonds advanced as the demand for haven assets intensified.

The ruble fell to a record low against the greenback, sliding more than 4%, and Russia’s central bank said it will intervene in the foreign exchange market for the first time in years and expand its Lombard list of securities accepted as collateral

The trade-weighted yuan index advanced to a record as the currency emerged as a haven amid a global risk-asset selloff induced by Russia’s attack on Ukraine.  The Bloomberg CFETS RMB Index tracker rises as much as 0.6% to 104.28, the highest ever in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 2007. USD/CNH rises 0.1% to 6.3181; USD/CNY gains 0.1% at 6.3186.

The news on Ukraine “sapped risk appetite and sank most Asian currencies this morning,” says Fiona Lim, senior foreign exchange strategist at Malayan Banking Bhd. in Singapore. That said, most Asian currency pairs are still within recent trading ranges, possibly buffered by the steady offshore yuan, she adds.

In commodities, crude futures advance. WTI drifts 8.4% higher to trade above $100, Brent hits $105 for the first time since 2014. Spot gold rose roughly $61 to trade as high as $1,970/oz. 

Looking at the day ahead now, and US data releases include the weekly initial jobless claims, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, and January’s new home sales. In France, there’s also consumer confidence for February. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Barkin, Bostic, Mester and Daly, the ECB’s Schnabel, and BoE Governor Bailey, Deputy Governor Broadbent and Chief Economist Pill. Earnings releases include Royal Bank of Canada and Moderna. Finally, EU leaders will be holding a summit tonight on Ukraine.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 1.7% to 4,149.50
• STOXX Europe 600 down 2.8% to 441.10
• MXAP down 2.7% to 180.40
• MXAPJ down 3.5% to 590.13
• Nikkei down 1.8% to 25,970.82
• Topix down 1.2% to 1,857.58
• Hang Seng Index down 3.2% to 22,901.56
• Shanghai Composite down 1.7% to 3,429.96
• Sensex down 4.6% to 54,589.09
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 3.0% to 6,990.63
• Kospi down 2.6% to 2,648.80
• German 10Y yield little changed at 0.14%
• Euro down 0.6% to $1.1238
• Brent Futures up 6.9% to $103.54/bbl
• Brent Futures up 6.9% to $103.54/bbl
• Gold spot up 2.0% to $1,947.40
• U.S. Dollar Index up 0.53% to 96.70

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• Russia’s attack on Ukraine, including shelling from Belarus and the movement of troops across that northern border, has been accompanied by separatists launching assaults in the eastern part of the country
• President Joe Biden announced he would impose “severe sanctions” on Russia after Vladimir Putin ordered a military assault on Ukraine, which Biden condemned as an “unprovoked and unjustified attack”
• Ukraine’s central bank has taken emergency measures after Russia started attack against Ukraine, governor Kyrylo Shevchenko says in statement on bank’s website
• Futures tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index signaled the U.S. equity gauge is poised to fall into a bear market on Thursday for the first time since the depths of the pandemic selloff as investors exit risk assets on geopolitical risks
• The crisis over Ukraine probably won’t keep the ECB from agreeing on a faster wind-down of asset purchases at its next policy meeting, though the prospects for an interest-rate hike are less clear, Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf said
• The ECB should continue its asset-purchase program at least until the end of the year and keep it open-ended to cushion the fallout from any conflict in Ukraine, Reuters cites ECB policy maker Yannis Stournaras as saying in an interview
• Iran has millions of barrels of oil stored offshore that could flow into a tight global market if a nuclear deal is agreed, with refiners in South Korea likely to be among the first in line to take cargoes

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Nesquawk

Geopolitics

• Russian President Putin authorised a special military operation to demilitarise Ukraine. Putin said Russia does not plan to occupy Ukrainian territory and called on Ukrainian soldiers to immediately lay down weapons and go home, while he warned that Russia will react immediately in the case of foreign interference.
• Russian strategic bombers loaded with weapons took flight and Russian special forces entered Ukraine, while multiple explosions were heard across several Ukrainian cities including the capital of Kiev and there were also a series of explosions heard in the Belgorod province of Russia which is near the border with Ukraine. Furthermore, Ukrainian military command centres in Kiev and Kharkiv were attacked by missile strikes.
• Ukraine’s Foreign Minister said Russian President Putin started a full-scale war against Ukraine, while he added that this is an aggressive war and Ukraine will defend itself and win.
• Ukrainian military commands claims it is being hit by a second wave of missile strikes.
• German Foreign Minister said Russia rejected offers of more talks.

Western response:

• US President Biden said Russian President Putin has chosen a premeditated war, while Biden will address the American people on Thursday and will announce further consequences on Russia. Furthermore, the US will coordinate with NATO allies to ensure a strong and united response to Russian actions.
• Russia is confident it can withstand Germany’s decision to halt the Nord Stream 2 pipeline certification, according to sources close to Kremlin and Gazprom cited by the FT.
• European Commission President von der Leyen said EU will target strategic sectors of Russian economy, blocking access to key tech and markets; will freeze assets in EU and stop access of Russian banks to EU financial markets.
• EU could discuss personal sanctions on Russia President Putin, Russia’s Sputnik News reported.
• EU is unlikely to cut Russia off SWIFT payment system for now, Reuters sources said. Sources added that would make it difficult for creditors to get money back from Russia, while Russia has been building up an alternative payment system.
• UK PM Johnson called for an urgent meeting of all leaders as soon as possible, according to Reuters.
• EU Finance Ministers to discuss Ukraine on Friday/Saturday, according to a German government source cited by Reuters.
• European leaders to discuss offering Ukraine EU Candidate Status at Thursday’s European Summit, according to Lithuania’s President.
• EU Ambassadors will prepare the extraordinary European Council meeting tonight, according to the EU spokesperson.

Asia-Pac stocks slumped as geopolitical fears of an imminent strike on Ukraine came to fruition. ASX 200 fell beneath the 7k level with losses led by tech and miners despite Rio Tinto’s record profit. Nikkei 225 slumped below 26k for the first time since late 2020, mired by geopolitics and haven flows. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. weakened as bourses were hit by the Russian offensive with Hong Kong dragged lower by tech as Alibaba shares slumped ahead of earnings

Top Asian News

• China’s Yuan Becomes Unlikely Haven as Geopolitics Roil Markets
• Unilever’s India Unit Splits Chairman and CEO Roles
• China Tech Rout Resumes on Policy Jitters Before Alibaba Results
• Hong Kong Reports 8,798 Covid Cases, 50 Deaths Thursday

European bourses trade with losses across the board as sentiment took a hit on President Putin’s announcement on Ukraine. Countries with high exposure to the Russian economy feel the pressure; Austria, France, and Italy are the worst hit. The overall picture tilts defensive with Healthcare, Utilities and Food & Beverages among those with the shallowest losses; banks lag whilst energy is supported. US equity futures are also in the red, with the NQ narrowly lagging its peers.

Top European News

• European Stocks Set for Correction on Russia’s Ukraine Attack
• European Energy Prices Soar After Russia Attacks Ukraine Targets
• ECB Is Closely Monitoring Implications of Situation in Ukraine
• ECB May Still Decide on End of QE Despite Ukraine, Makhlouf Says

In FX, the DXY extended its rebound from recent lows to levels above 97.000. USD/JPY retreated through 115.00 to a sub-114.50 low before bouncing. RUB saw considerable weakness and almost touched 90.0000 vs the USD before paring back after CBR intervention. CHF is faring better than other majors due to its safety credentials. Euro is struggling to retain 1.1200+ status Aussie is back under 0.7200 and Kiwi teetering over 0.6700 having topped 0.6800 only yesterday in wake of the recent hawkish RBNZ hike

In commodities, WTI and Brent futures have soared in a market dictated by geopolitics. Brent Apr surpassed USD 105/bbl whilst WTI Mar eyes USD 100/bbl to the upside. Brent six-month backwardation hit a new record high. UK and European Nat gas prices rose over 30% apiece. FT sources close to Kremlin and Gazprom have suggested that Russia is confident that it can withstand Germany’s decision to halt the gas pipeline certification. Ukraine’s Naftogas says energy infrastructure in the country has not been damaged. India to discuss ways to mitigate high global crude oil prices, and other commodities, according to a source cited by Reuters. Haven demand has bolstered spot gold and silver prices, with the yellow metal extending gains above USD 1,950/oz. LME aluminium surpassed its 2008 peak to reach fresh record highs.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30am: Feb. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 235,000, prior 248,000
• 8:30am: Feb. Continuing Claims, est. 1.58m, prior 1.59m
• 8:30am: 4Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 7.0%, prior 6.9%
• 8:30am: 4Q Personal Consumption, est. 3.4%, prior 3.3%
• 8:30am: 4Q GDP Price Index, est. 6.9%, prior 6.9%
• 8:30am: 4Q PCE Core QoQ, est. 4.9%, prior 4.9%;
• 8:30am: Jan. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.15, prior -0.15
• 10am: Jan. New Home Sales, est. 802,000, prior 811,000
• 11am: Feb. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 24, prior 24

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We go to press this morning amidst major developments in Ukraine, with Russia having launched a full-scale invasion of the country overnight. In a televised address, Russian President Putin claimed that “Russia can’t exist with a constant threat from the territory of Ukraine”, and called on Ukrainian soldiers to lay down arms. There have since been numerous reports of explosions from multiple cities in Ukraine, including Kyiv, albeit full information is limited at time of writing, and Ukrainian President Zelensky has imposed martial law across the country.

In response, US President Biden said that he would be meeting today with G7 leaders, and that “our Allies and partners will be imposing severe sanctions on Russia. We will continue to provide support and assistance to Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.” He also said that he would be speaking to the American people today “to announce the further consequences the United States and our Allies and partners will impose on Russia for this needless act of aggression against Ukraine and global peace and security.”

The market reaction to these developments has been seismic, with Brent Crude oil prices surpassing $100/bbl for the first time since 2014, whilst S&P 500 futures are currently down -1.92%, on top of the index’s -1.84% decline yesterday. US Treasuries have also rallied strongly this morning as investors have moved into haven assets, with the 10yr yield down by -11.8bps to 1.873%, and gold prices have surged +1.90% to their highest level in over a year, at $1,945/oz. Otherwise overnight, the Ruble has sunk to a record low against the US dollar in the interbank trade, whilst other commodities are reacting, including aluminum which has hit a record high in London and surpassed its 2008 peak.

This morning, markets in Asia are sharing in this global risk-off move, with the Nikkei (-1.96%), the Hang Seng (-3.18%), the Shanghai Comp (-1.40%) and the CSI 300 (1.94%) all seeing major declines. Ahead of the breaking news on Ukraine, the Bank of Korea also held their policy rate at 1.25%, in line with expectations.

Even before the serious developments overnight, yesterday had already been an incredibly eventful day in markets, with the highlights including 1) that the FANG+ index has now wiped out all of 2021s gains and has lost around a quarter of its value from the November peak, 2) the S&P 500 is now down more than -10% YTD for the first time, 3) 2 year US breakevens rose a huge +20.6bps, 4) German 10 year breakevens hit decade plus highs and 5) European natural gas was up more than 10% again (and that was before the overnight developments).

Those moves yesterday came amidst a continued souring of risk sentiment given fears of a potential conflict that’s since transpired. There had been a more positive tone 24 hours ago during the European morning, but that turned shortly after the US open after news came through from Ukraine that numerous websites had suffered a distributed denial-of-service attack. That saw the S&P 500 (-1.84%) gave up its opening gains and lose ground for a 4th consecutive session. And as mentioned, for the first time so far this year, the S&P ended the day more than -10% lower on a YTD basis, which is a big turnaround from how 2022 began, having reached an all-time closing high on the first trading day. Cyclical sectors underperformed, and the FANG+ index of megacap tech stocks fell by -3.01%, marking the fourth consecutive day of declines greater than 2% for the first time since December 2018. The drop brought the index to its lowest closing level since December 2020, having now fallen by -24.97% since its all-time closing high back in early November. The Nasdaq (-2.57%) also almost wiped out its 2021 gains. For Europe the market had closed before the bulk of the losses, but with the STOXX 600 (-0.28%) closing at its lowest for 2022 as well.

In terms of the broader global impact, a significant way the events in Ukraine will affect the rest of the world is regarding inflation, and even before we saw $100/bbl oil overnight, that relentless rise in commodities showed no sign of abating yesterday. Along with European natural gas prices gaining +11.41% as mentioned, wheat futures (+3.78%) climbed to their highest since late-2012, and soybean futures (+2.45%) managed to eclipse their peak from last May, taking them to their highest levels on record. All-in-all, that sent the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index (+0.70%) to another record high, suggesting there’ll still be significant momentum behind inflation for some time to come.

These growing fears of inflation among investors led to a further selloff in sovereign bonds on both sides of the Atlantic, although overnight the movement in Treasuries has completely reversed that. But for a sign of how acute those inflation concerns are growing, 10yr German breakevens were up +5.4bps to 1.97%, their highest closing level in over a decade, though 10yr bunds pared back moves later in the session, ending the day down -1.5bps, thanks to a decline in real yields. The pressure was even stronger across the Atlantic; the 2yr US breakeven rose a remarkable +20.6bps to 3.96%, which is its highest in Bloomberg data series going all the way back to 2004, while 5yr breakevens rose +16.7bps. Given that, yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +5.2bps to 1.99%, with breakevens up a paltry +9.5bps by comparison. So falling real yields helped prevent a US bond meltdown.

These inflationary moves seemed to be even forcing the resident doves of both the ECB and the Fed to sound a more hawkish tone despite the geopolitical turmoil, although the big question now will be how developments overnight will affect their reaction function. Fed funds futures have slashed the implied odds of a 50bp move in March to just 16%, which is the lowest in over 3 weeks before we had the CPI report. The number of 25bp hikes priced for the year as a whole has also gone down from 6.48 to 6.00, suggesting that (at least for now) investors believe this is going to make central bankers more dovish rather than hawkish as they react to the turmoil, even with inflationary pressures building.

In terms of yesterday’s central bank news, ECB Chief Economist Lane noted in an interview that there was growing confidence in medium-term inflation returning closer to the target, and if the data suggests their medium-term inflation goals were within reach, that policy would be adjusted. Unlike other previous ECB speakers, that adjustment was not couched in gradual terms. While emphasising a commitment to the exit sequence of ending net APP purchases before liftoff, Lane noted the timeline of purchases may be shorter than was expected. In line with other speakers, Lane also noted the ECB would leverage PEPP reinvestments to defend against policy fragmentation. Against that backdrop, there was a further widening in peripheral spreads, with the gap between Italian and German 10yr yields up to another recent high of 171bps, which we haven’t seen since June 2020, and the Greek spread hit 237bps, which hasn’t been seen since May 2020. Separately, President Daly of the SF Fed said a March liftoff was still on the table despite growing political risks. She also backed four Fed rate hikes this year, and left the option open for more if needed.

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the weekly initial jobless claims, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, and January’s new home sales. In France, there’s also consumer confidence for February. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Barkin, Bostic, Mester and Daly, the ECB’s Schnabel, and BoE Governor Bailey, Deputy Governor Broadbent and Chief Economist Pill. Earnings releases include Royal Bank of Canada and Moderna. Finally, EU leaders will be holding a summit tonight on Ukraine.

END

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 59.19 PTS OR 1.70%       //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 758.72 PTS OR 3.21%  /The Nikkei closed DOWN 478=3,79 or 1.81%       //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 1.95%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.324    /Oil UP TO 98.91 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 104.45 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED       //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3353. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3363: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFF SHORE WEAKER//

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

/CHINA//USA/TAIWAN

Chinese jets approach Taiwan after Beinjing blasts the USA for their role in the lead up to the Ukraine invasion

(zerohedge)

Chinese Jets Approach Taiwan As Beijing Blasts US For “Fueling Fires” In Lead-Up To Ukraine Invasion

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 10:10 AM

Taiwan was quick to issue official statement vehemently condemning Russia’s early morning launch of war on Ukraine. Foreign ministry spokeswoman Joanne Ou denounced the attack on Ukraine’s sovereignty, at a tense moment that Beijing continues to eye Taiwan as its own territory. 

“Ukrainian cities like Kyiv has been attacked by gunfire, leading to fears of a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine,” she said. “We call on all sides to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and oppose the use of violence or coercion to change the status quo.”

At the same time China’s initial reaction noticeably failed to condemn the invasion, with the Chinese foreign ministry calling for all sides to “exercise restraint” – while ultimately castigating the United States for “fueling fire” in the build-up of tensions.

According to a review of a lengthy press briefing in Beijing, the ministry spokesperson refused over and over again to acknowledge an “invasion” of a sovereign country by Russia: 

In a Ministry of Foreign Affairs briefing that went on for more than 90 minutes, spokesperson and Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Hua Chunying dodged more than 11 questions regarding Russia’s actions in Ukraine. They included repeated inquiries on whether Beijing would consider Russia’s acts an invasion and whether they violated Ukraine’s territorial integrity. 

Hua added that China would begin importing Russian wheat, a move that could ease the impact of Western sanctions on Russia. 

She called the conflict “very complicated” while urging that the legitimate “security concerns of all parties” must be addressed – which is a clear acknowledgement that China takes of utmost seriousness Moscow’s rejection of NATO expansion. 

According to the exchange with reporters:

After questions from multiple media on whether China considered Russia’s moves an invasion, Hua asked reporters, “Why are you obsessed with this question?”

“You can ask the US side. They keep fueling fires… You can ask them if they have any plans to put out the fire.”

Meanwhile on Thursday as the world’s attention is fully on Ukraine and Putin’s “shock and awe” war unfolding there, Taiwan’s air force scrambled fighters to warn away nine Chinese PLA aircraft that breached its air defense identification zone. 

While Chinese aircraft entering the area off the island’s south is nothing new, and has occurred on a weekly basis for more than the past year, it’s led to speculation that China could take a page out of Putin’s playbook and mount its own rapid overwhelming attack. This after the Communist Party takeover of Hong Kong via its local puppets has already long been a done deal.

end

CHINA/USA/RUSSIA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFFAIRS

GERMANY/COVID/VACCINE INJURIES

Very big:  German Health insurer now reveals to the world alarming underreporting of vaccine side effects/deaths

(zerohedge)

German Health Insurer Reveals ‘Alarming’ Underreporting Of Vaccine Side-Effects

WEDNESDAY, FEB 23, 2022 – 08:40 PM

A large German health insurance provider revealed on Wednesday that Covid-19 vaccine side-effects are vastly underreported, according to Welt.

After analyzing data from over 10 million individuals, BKK ProVita board member Andreas Schöfbeck, over a 7.5 month period beginning in early 2021, 216,695 policyholders out of 10.9 million were treated for vaccine side-effects. This compares to 244,576 reports out of 61.4 million reported by the Paul Ehrlich Institute – a German federal agency.

Germany has a population of around 83 million people.

Schöfbeck called the data an “alarm signal,” adding “The numbers determined are significant and urgently need to be checked for plausibility.”

“The data available to our company gives us reason to believe that there is a very considerable under-recording of suspected cases of vaccination side-effects after they received the [COVID-19] vaccine.“

“If these figures are applied to the year as a whole and to” the entire population of Germany, Schöfbeck estimated, then “probably 2.5-3 million people in Germany been under medical treatment because of vaccination side effects after [COVID-19] vaccination.”

As Jack Phillips of The Epoch Times notes:

Schöfbeck concluded that based on their data, “there is a significant underreporting of vaccination side-effects” in Germany.

Another letter that was sent out by BKK (pdf) suggested that vaccination side effects reported across Germany are at least 10 times more common than what was reported by the Paul-Ehrlich Institute, reported the Nordkurier newspaper on Wednesday.

Schöfbeck’s letters were also sent to Germany’s Standing Vaccination Commission and the German Medical Association.

The letters did not elaborate on the severity of the side effects, nor did they provide a breakdown of the symptoms, or which vaccines caused the side effects. Germany’s drug regulator has approved COVID-19 vaccines manufactured by Pfizer, AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, NovaVax, and Moderna.

Federal health officials in the United States and Germany have stressed that COVID-19 vaccines’ benefits outweigh the potential risks.

And the Paul Ehrlich Institute, the German federal health agency that regulates vaccines and medicines, asserts on its website that COVID-19 vaccine side effects are very rare. They list myocarditis, the inflammation of the heart muscle; and pericarditis, the inflammation of the pericardium, as rare side effects associated with COVID-19 vaccines.

END

UK/EU/RUSSIA

They are not ready to kick Russia out of the SWIFT system yet.

(zerohedge)

UK Pushing To Kick Russia Out Of SWIFT, But Germany Says No

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 11:10 AM

Yesterday we reported that in an unexpected twist, Russia’s Ministry Of Finance had submitted a bitcoin bill proposal, surprising because until now Russia’s central bank has called for a complete ban on the trading and mining of bitcoin, setting up a conflict with the Ministry of Finance, which has been far more favorably positioned vis-a-vis cryptos.

One reason for the favorable view by the Russian Ministry is that it has long been suggested that the west could expel Russia from SWIFT, effectively kicking Russia out of the entire dollar-payment system, and leaving Russia with few payment alternatives, one of which would be of course bitcoin.

Well, adding fuel to the fire, moments ago the FT reported that UK prime minister Boris Johnson was pushing “very hard” for Russia to be ejected from the Swift international payments system, “a move that would deliver a heavy blow to the country’s banks and its ability to trade beyond its borders.”

“The PM is very keen on this — he’s pushing it very hard,” said one British official, referring to his efforts to eject Russia from Swift. Johnson also raised the idea at a meeting with City of London executives on Wednesday.

A similar appeal to kick Russia out of SWIFT was echoed moments ago by Ukraine foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba:

However, in an even more surprising twist, the FT also reports that Olaf Scholz, German chancellor, “warned Johnson on Thursday that his country would not support such a dramatic move and neither would the EU, according to officials close to sanctions negotiations.” A German official declined to comment, saying only that “all options are still on the table”.

Johnson – as well as US president Joe Biden who has yet to address the nation – has faced criticism in the UK for deploying what critics described as “peashooter” sanctions in response to the first stage of Russian aggression in Ukraine; he is now trying to push western colleagues to deploy very tough reprisals.

Other such as Milos Zeman, Czech president, have backed BoJo, saying on Thursday that he wanted to impose harder EU sanctions on Russia, including ejecting its banks from Swift, arguing that it was important to isolate Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president.

Conceding that BoJo’s appeal is merely theatrical, the FT notes that even Downing Street has conceded that any move regarding Swift could only be done with international agreement, a position shared by the Biden administration. “We have to do it together,” the British official said.

Echoing the German position, the US has so far suggested that it was too early to consider the move, while saying that no option was off the table. Daleep Singh, a deputy White House national security adviser, earlier this week said there were “other severe measures we can take that our allies and partners are ready to take in lockstep with us, and that don’t have the same spillover effects”.

Removing Russia from Swift would be a heavy blow to its biggest banks and would hamper the country’s ability to trade outside its borders. It would also stymie Russia’s ability to recoup international profits from its oil and gas exports, which account for more than 40 per cent of its revenue.

Swift, a Belgian co-operative, is used by more than 11,000 banks and financial institutions worldwide and handles 42mn messages a day, facilitating trillions of dollars worth of transactions. Russia accounted for 1.5 per cent of transactions in 2020.

Being cut off from Swift would not prevent Russian banks from carrying out cross-border transactions, but doing so would become more costly and arduous. Foreign dealings would rely on the use of less efficient communication tools, such as email and telex.

Meanwhile, Europe remains divided on the topic of just how to respond to Russia: “the EU is locked in discussions over how to approach the issue. While Baltic countries and Poland are among those who are advocating a hawkish line on the topic, other member states are more wary.”

In other words, not even a full-blown invasion of Ukraine is sufficient for the west to take the nuclear option of disconnecting Russia for the simple reason that Europe remains painfully reliant and interlinked with European energy supply, supply which would be untouchable should Russia no longer be in SWIFT.

EU leaders will convene on Thursday evening in Brussels to discuss the bloc’s sanctions package. It is unlikely that a SWIFT decision will be taken, which leaves us with the following humorous take from Jim Bianco

end

UK unveils its largest ever sanctions against Russia

(zerohedge)

UK’s Johnson Unveils “Largest Ever” Sanctions Package Against Russia

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 02:00 PM

Prime minister Boris Johnson has unveiled what he’s calling the “largest ever” package of economic sanctions to be imposed on Russia. Johnson vowed the measures will “hobble” the Russian economy, and though teasing the possibility of “pushing to end” Russia’s use of the SWIFT international payment system – it appears this is not actually on the table at this point, though likely being saved as a threat further down the road if Moscow doesn’t wind down military operations. 

On this point, he spelled out that “nothing is off the table” – while detailing mass asset freezes against all major Russian banks, as well as actions that will in effect bar Russian companies from accessing finance in UK markets. 

Further, the new UK measures include “an immediate ban on the export of dual-use civilian and military items to Russia, and a plan to limit the amount that Russian nationals can deposit in U.K. banks,” as Bloomberg reports. 

Russia’s VTB Bank was first out of the gate in saying it’s already “prepared” itself for the “harshest” possible scenarios coming out of the West – along the lines of what top political officials have of late described as a ‘fortress Russia’ strategy.

While stopping short of levying punitive actions against Putin himself, which the Russian leader previously said would be an ‘act of war’ – the UK measures go after his ‘inner circle’ and other influential Russian elites, meant also to impact oligarchs who typically spend time in Britain: 

Individual sanctions will be imposed on over 100 individuals, entities and subsidiaries, including Rostec, the country’s biggest defence company, which exports £10bn in arms a year, as well as four other defence companies.

Oligarchs who will be sanctioned include Putin’s former son-in-law Kirill Shamalov, Russia’s youngest billionaire; Denis Bortnikov, the chair of VTB Bank’s management board; and Yury Slyusar, the director of the United Aircraft Corporation. The Russian airline Aeroflot will be banned from landing in the UK.

One diplomatic official told The Guardian that they aim to inflict economic pain on people with “international lifestyles”. 

“These are people who have international lifestyles. They come to Harrods to shop, they stay in our best hotels when they like, they send their children to our best public schools, and that is what’s being stopped,” the official said.

“So that these people are essentially persona non grata in every major western European capital in the world. That really bites.”

end

UBS/RUSSIA

Wow! this is different: UBS just riggered margin calls for wealthy clients by calling Russian bond collateral equal to zero.

(zerohedge)

“Mark It Zero”: UBS Triggers Margin Calls For Wealthy Clients By Calling Russian Bond Collateral Worthless

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 02:43 PM

It’s a bad day for anyone who has levered positions with Russian bonds as collateral, and very bad if your counterparty is UBS: according to Bloomberg, the largest Swiss bank UBS has triggered margin calls on some wealth management clients that use Russian bonds as collateral, after marking down the value of debt issued by the country and its corporations all the way to zero.

What was already a dismal day for Russian bonds, which have seen their prices cut in half overnight…

… became a nightmare for those who used their Russian bonds as collateral with UBS Wealth which is calling on some investors to add either cash or securities to their portfolio after cutting the lending value of some Russian bonds to nothing, Bloomberg reported noting that the bank may liquidate the securities at market value for those clients that can’t meet the additional requirements. UBS’ domestic peer Pictet is also cutting the values of Russian assets in investors portfolios, the Bloomberg report noted.

In the same day that Russian bonds saw historic losses, Russia’s stocks also slumped the most on record, plunging as much as 45% – their biggest every one day drop – losing over $250 billion in value, after a trading suspension ended, while the ruble reached a record low. The moves were part of a global flight to safety as stocks tumbled worldwide and oil soared.

Meanwhile, the cost of insuring Russian debt against default soared to the highest since 2009.

The ruble sank to a record low, before paring losses. The Bank of Russia said it will intervene in the foreign exchange market for the first time in years and take measures to tame volatility.

“The ball is now on the West’s side, we have to see how far sanctions go — whether Russia will be kept in the global financial system” said Viktor Szabo, an investor at Aberdeen Asset Management Plc. in London

The Russian central bank made no mention of raising interest rates, but said it will provide additional liquidity to banks by offering 1 trillion rubles ($11.8 billion) in an overnight repo auction. Policy makers have increased the benchmark rate by 525 basis points in the past 12 months to tame inflation.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA//UKRAINE/DONBASS//TUESDAY NIGHT

Russia invades Ukraine.  Ukraine central bank freezes the foreign exchange market and limits cash withdrawals. Russia intervenes in foreign fx to rescue the rouble as credit risk totally explodes

important read…

(zerohedge)

Ukraine Central Bank Freezes FX Market, Limits Cash Withdrawals; Russia Intervenes To Rescue Ruble As Credit Risk Explodes

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 06:06 AM

It’s not just the energy complex that is roiling following Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

The FX and credit markets are in full turmoil in both Russia and Ukraine with both their currencies collapsing to record lows as sovereign yields explode higher.

Russia’s Ruble collapsed to 88/USD at the open and only after open intervention by Russia’s Central Bank could the currency stage a rally…

The central bank said in a statement that “to stabilise the situation on the financial market, the Bank of Russia has decided to start interventions in the foreign exchange market.”

The measures are intended to provide “additional liquidity to the banking sector” in Russia, with Western sanctions looming after the military operation announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“The Bank of Russia will ensure the maintenance of financial stability and continuity of the operation of financial institutions, using all necessary tools,” it said.

The central bank added that it and other financial institutions “have clear action plans for any scenario.”

Russia holds a formidable war-chest of more than $600 billion in foreign-exchange reserves and gold that it can use in currency markets to prop up the ruble, but for now that is not enough to calm concerns in the sovereign risk market as Russian CDS has exploded higher…

Meanwhile in Ukraine, the Central bank has taken emergency measures to stem the outflows of capital. 

Governor Kyrylo Shevchenko says in statement on bank’s website that measures taken include suspension of FX market, limits on daily cash withdrawals and ban on international money transfers.

Appropriate actions are necessary to ensure the reliable and stable functioning of the country’s financial system and maximize the activities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the smooth operation of critical infrastructure facilities.

However, Ukrainian bond prices have crashed (sending yields on the 7.253% dollar notes maturing in 2033 over 80%)…

And UAH has crashed to more than 30/USD before local trading was suspended…

“Within days or weeks capital will be flowing away from central and eastern Europe, causing a double-digit retreat on stocks,” said Adam Lukojc, head of equity investments at Warsaw-based asset manager TFI Allianz Polska SA.

For now those flows appear to be finding safe haven in precious metals…

BNP Paribas’ Ukrsibbank subsidiary has suspended operations of branches in several regions of Ukraine following adoption of martial law in the country, bank says in statement on Thursday, adding that “we work in line with recommendations of the National Bank of Ukraine.”

END

Bond yields for both Russian and Ukrainian bonds explodes but the real problem is Ukraine. Its credit default swaps skyrocket indicating an80% chance of default

(zerohedge)

Ukraine Default Risk Explodes; Russian FX/Stocks Routed As Intervention Fails

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 10:44 AM

Early market intervention in the FX market rescued the Ruble, but that has now been overwhelmed by more selling pressure with the Russian currency back near earlier record lows…

So far, the response by the central bank is more measured than eight years ago when the conflict in Ukraine first flared.

“If the central bank is in the market then it’s doing so carefully — but the effect has been achieved,” said Georgy Vashchenko, head of trading operations at the Freedom Finance brokerage.

“The ruble will most likely remain under pressure in the near future, but the Bank of Russia is ready to smooth out any emergencies.”

At the same time, despite halting trading early on in the vain hope of some ‘calm’ returning, the Russian stock market is a bloodbath with Bloomberg reporting over $250 billion in market cap being wiped out.

The MOEX stock index traded down 35% today with shares of Sberbank PJSC, Russia’s biggest lender, down 49%, while natural-gas giant Gazprom PJSC traded 40% weaker.

In fact, in USD terms, the MOEX is down a stunning 60% in the last 6 days alone…

Russia’s sovereign bonds plummeted, taking some to distressed levels, and the nation’s credit-default swap premium soared above 900bps…

Russia, obviously, is not alone, as Ukraine’s FX and bond markets are a disaster.

Admittedly in very low liquidity environment, the cost of protecting against a Ukraine sovereign bond defaults has exploded higher and are now trading upfront (equivalent to around a 2700bps premium), signaling an 80% chance of default, according to data compiled by ICE.

Bond yields are correspondingly exploding to their highest since restructuring in 2015…

“Uncertainty is huge and the situation can change every second and this is reflected in the huge bid – offer prices and low to almost zero volumes,” said Jochen Felsenheimer, a managing director at XAIA Investment in Munich who trades credit default swaps and bonds.

end

Russia’s object demilitazide Ukraine after a barrage of artillery and airstrikes across Ukraine last night.No reports of natural gas or crude disruptions. Oil prices rise about 104 dollars for brent.

(zerohedge)

Ukraine Power Grid Stable, No Blackouts, NatGas Pipelines Running “Smoothly” As Energy Prices Spike

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 06:20 AM

Global energy prices are soaring after Russian forces launched a barrage of artillery, airstrikes, and missiles across Ukraine early Thursday to “demilitarize” the country. Even though natural gas and crude prices jumped on Thursday, there are no reports of supply disruptions or blackouts in Ukraine, suggesting businesses as usual.  

An escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict sent Dutch TTF Gas Futures up more than 41%, rising for the fourth consecutive day. Soaring gas prices are also feeding into power markets. German power contracts jumped as much as 31%. 

The EU and US natural gas price spread is blowing out again, this time on geopolitical concerns. The spread blew out on unseasonably cold weather and low natgas supplies in late 2021. 

And for context, the soaring price of EU and UK NatGas is equivalent to a barrel of oil costing between $175 and $220…

And has lifted US NatGas prices as potential export demand is priced in…

The crisis sent Brent crude prices higher, up 8.55% to $105 a barrel. This is the first time the international benchmark for crude surpassed the $100 mark since 2014. 

WTI futures topped the $100 mark…

Soaring crude prices will only mean rising gasoline prices at the pump for Americans. The move in crude suggests $4 gasoline prices are ahead as the inflation monster crushes households. 

The Ukraine crisis has given the Biden administration and their media counterparts the perfect cover to blame increased gas prices, inflation, and supply-chain issues on Russia. 

Europe, already in the midst of an energy crunch, is experiencing low natgas inventories ahead of the spring/summer season. Russia is a top energy supplier to Europe, supplying about a third of its gas needs. Any gas disruption would be catastrophic for the continent. 

Despite the ongoing fallout from Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Bloomberg’s Javier Blas noted, “Ukrainian gas pipeline company confirms that flows through the country (from Russia into the European Union) continue “smoothly.””  

Blas said, “if nothing changes” today, “the UE, UK and US will buy in the next 24 hours ~3.5m barrels of Russian oil (crude and products) and another ~275m cubic meters of gas. At today’s prices, that’s worth >$700 million.” 

He added, “for now, the biggest physical disruption to Russian / Ukrainian commodities flow **appears** to be on grains (wheat would be most affected). Shipping restrictions imposed around grain export ports.” 

Soaring energy prices will only put further stress on EU lawmakers to resolve the Ukraine conflict. 

“This will put further stress on the EU both on the energy side and diplomatic side,” said Thierry Bros, a professor at the Paris Institute of Political Studies.

European leaders are planning an emergency meeting on Thursday to discuss the crisis. Europe might compete with Asia for natgas should pipeline disruptions be seen.

“In the event of prolonged disruption, gas inventory couldn’t be rebuilt through the summer,” Kateryna Filippenko, principal analyst for Europe gas research at WoodMac, wrote in a note.

“We’d be facing a catastrophic situation of gas storage being close to zero for next winter. Prices would be sky-high. Industries would need to shut down. Inflation would spiral. The European energy crisis could very well trigger a global recession,” Filippenko said. 

As for now, there are no reports of blackouts. 

end

Putin going after military installations and Neo Nazis

(zerohedge)

Putin’s “Shock & Awe” War On Ukraine Unfolds In “Dark Day For Europe”

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 09:12 AM

Now many hours into Russia’s attack that started around 5am Kiev time, it’s become clear that a full-scale ‘shock and awe’ type invasion is clearly on – which is not just limited to Donbas in the east. Stunning videos from on the ground show what can be described as an ongoing air war on Kiev and several other cities across the country. Tanks have also been seen speeding across Ukraine’s border from Belarus, with widespread reports that Belarusian soldiers are mounting the attack alongside Russian troops.

Russia’s military had announced within just a couple hours into the offensive that all of Ukraine’s air defense systems have been taken out. A massive Russian aerial presence, including fighter jets and helicopters, has been confirmed over much of the country. 

Soon after the initial attack which also included cruise missile launches, which likely came from Russia’s Black Sea fleet, Kiev authorities cited “hundreds” of Ukrainians killed, including civilians. 

It’s believed that much of Ukraine’s command and control military infrastructure was targeted and hit in the first wave, also as Ukraine border guards were attack, with some reports of soldiers fleeing the Russian advance. Moscow has declared safe passage for any Ukrainian soldier laying down their arms. 

Ukraine’s state emergency service has also said a Ukrainian military plane was downed, which killed five people. This as surreal battlefield footage continues to evidence the ferocity of an air war in progress.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Thursday issued comment on the scope and goal of the military objections, citing Putin’s aim of the “demilitarization and denazification” of Ukraine. 

“Ideally, Ukraine should be liberated, cleansed of Nazis, of pro-Nazi people and ideology,” Peskov said, saying that operations would end only once these objectives have been reached. It remains unclear whether this will mean regime change in Kiev, though at this point that scenario is looking more than likely. There were early reports that President Zelensky has been offered safe passage if he leaves Ukraine.

Ukraine national police and emergency services have said there’s been fighting throughout the entire country, with Russia conducting over 200 attacks, with severe clashes ongoing in various parts of Ukraine.

President Biden has vowed severe and far-reaching new sanctions, which he said will be announced in an address on Thursday. German chancellor Olaf Scholz and other Western leaders condemned what Scholz called a “reckless act by President Putin,” and “terrible day for Ukraine and a dark day for Europe.”

“There is no justification for any of this — this is Putin’s war,” Scholz said at a news conference in Berlin. 

The large in scope Russian campaign is now being widely described as Putin’s “shock and awe” war – to borrow from America’s Iraq War – in the heart of eastern Europe. Bloomberg and others are calling it Europe’s worst security crisis since World War II.

end

Stinger missiles arrive to Ukraine from Latvia

(zerohedge)

First Shipments Of Stinger Missiles Arrive In Ukraine As “Gift” From Latvia

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 03:00 AM

Latvian state media is confirming that Stinger shoulder fired anti-air missiles have been delivered to Kiev, at a moment the US and Western backers of Ukraine are again warning that a full-scale Russian invasion is “imminent”. 

Public broadcast media cited the Latvian Ministry of Defense on Wednesday, which said the delivery would “strengthen the air defense capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the ability to protect its population from Russian aggression.”

“Latvia supports Ukraine’s and Ukrainians’ efforts to protect their country, so we have sent a gift – the Stinger missile system, so that, if necessary, the Ukrainian armed forces can protect their citizens, schools, hospitals and kindergartens,” a top Latvian official who reportedly oversaw the Stinger delivery said.

Baltic NATO allies earlier this month confirmed they would step up coordinating weapons deliveries to Ukraine amid Western fears of a Russian invasion – however which Moscow has consistently denied that it has plans for.

The Stinger delivery marks the first time Latvia is going beyond what are typically dubbed mere “defensive” weapons. The FIM-92 Stinger, a man-portable air-defense system, are most definitely the offensive weapon of choice typically used by US and NATO proxies against low flying enemy aircraft operating below 11,000 feet. The missile tracks aircraft by locking on to its heat signature from the aircraft engine exhaust.

The deliver to Kiev comes the day after President Joe Biden in a speech promised more ‘defensive aid’ to Ukraine. “I have authorized additional movements of US forces and equipment, already stationed in Europe, to strengthen our Baltic allies, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania,” Biden said in the Tuesday televised speech. “Let me be clear, these are totally defensive moves on our part.”

END

From Robert to us:

3M14 Kalibrs at work

Inbox

Robert Hryniak	11:16 AM (9 minutes ago)
to



Missile and artillery strikes are surgical. Most if not all aerial Ukrainian forces destroyed. Most Ukrainian soldiers are laying down their weapons as opposed to fighting. All bio labs are being destroyed. Yes bio labs while key infrastructure is avoided. All units of resistance are being eliminated with extreme prejudice regardless of origin. 

Here is a map of the various strike points and I am not able to confirm yet whether troops are in Odessa proper but am quite sure that they are on the outskirts of Mariupol. And as i have written before I believe the Ukraine will be split into 2 parts. Kyiv east is the  new Ukraine down to Odessa which will open up Moldavia to port access without gang payoffs. While the region west which is full of NeoNazi’s who are armed will become the problem of Europe and in time will be absorbed by other nations. It is why the embassies were moved to Lviv.  

China is already eyeing how to get in to port access and it is not clear it will be easy as Russia will holding them back to allow Ukrainians to develop this . 

Now here is a mind blowing reality no one wants to talk about because it is how they were able to loot the Ukraine to a greater extent than some other countries in the region. 

I have disgust for criminality allowed by crooked politicians or banks unfit for purpose, regardless of who or where they are. And sadly the world is full of shitheads acting as politicians who do not deserve to be dog catchers. It is well known that the Ukraine has been used and abused as a money laundry for funds that have enriched many a pocket with Ukrainian politicians and their sponsors taking their 20% cut. While at the same time the people of the Ukraine have been kept down and preyed upon by ruthless gangs for profit. For example, Ukraine and Moldova are favored hunting grounds for young women to be lured away from their homes for prostitution against their will while politicians take bribes to stay silent. This is a reality. 

It appears that Russia still owns the Ukraine because it never reestablished it’s borders when the Berlin wall fell. Any nation needs to do that to secure it’s own borders with other nations, which it hasn’t done. So whatever Russia does to the Ukraine, is none of anyone’s business. Putin and crew had to wait until they were certain of the ability to defend and fend off any retaliation by the WEST.  And God willing perhaps the Ukrainians can rebuild their country free of the yoke that was around their neck. There is a huge religious connection of belief that underpins what Russia is doing. While i have dislike for the way things still are in Russia, it simply is not the Russia of 20 years ago. And nor are the people there they same as they were. Times change people and attitudes and tolerances. Russia is by location the balancer between east and west and time will show if both  the country has grown enough with leadership to match. 

As many people report today Putin has made it clear by speaking and by last weekend’s missile demonstrations that the West needs to stay away from  what is internal affairs of safety and interest. This truly pisses off the West because a line in the sand was drawn and everyone knows the consequences of crossing. This also unmasks the illusion of what is NATO and magnifies the vassal state of some European nations for all to see. 

This statement by Ban Ki Moon was posted on Gab Feb. 22nd.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon made an astonishing statement, 
the distribution of which is forbidden in Ukrainian media and on the Internet. 

At a meeting of the UN Security Council the conflict between the two states was raised.

The following conclusion was drawn from it: 
Ukraine has not registered its borders since 25.12.1991. The registration of 
Ukraine’s borders as a sovereign state has not taken place in the UN. 
Therefore, it can be assumed that Russia does not commit any violations with 
regard to Ukraine. 
According to the CIS treaty, the territory of Ukraine is an administrative district of 
the USSR. Therefore, no one can be blamed for separatism and forcible change of 
Ukraine’s borders. 
According to international law, the country simply does not have officially 
recognized borders. 
To solve this problem, Ukraine must finalize the border demarcation with 
neighboring countries and obtain the consent of neighboring countries, including 
Russia, to their common border. It is necessary to document everything and sign 
agreements with all neighboring countries. 
The European Union has pledged its support to Ukraine on this important issue and 
has decided to provide all the technical assistance. 
But will Russia sign a border treaty with Ukraine? No, of course not! 
Since Russia is the legal successor of the USSR (this is confirmed by the decisions 
of international courts on property disputes between the former USSR and foreign 
countries), the territories on which Ukraine, Belarus and Novorossiya are located 
belong to Russia, and no one has the right to dispose of this territory without 
Russia’s consent. 
Basically, all Russia has to do now is declare that this territory is Russian and that 
everything that happens in this territory is an internal Russian affair.

And if i am correct in this assumption, then i imagine the NEW Ukraine will have its’ own government in days ahead elected by its’ own people and have governance as a demilitarized nation on Russia’s border and eventually brought into the SCO and be part of the Eurasian push which is occurring now. This also means more. Ukrainian goods will have a market eastward and not westward. As for thinking Russia will bail out the place, it is doubtful and the Ukrainian people will have to dig deep into their souls as they have for centuries and rebuild. However, what Russian will do is allow a freer flow of wealth by eliminating the graft and cutting off the siphoning of funds to pockets of external politicians and their kin. 

As for reality Ukraine will become a fertile ground for investments provided such investments are real and not one streets on the backs of the people. Time will tell and risk will be there as it is in many countries. 

Attachments area

Preview YouTube video РАБОТАЮТ КАЛИБРЫ! Ракетные удары по Украине. Рсзо. Одесса наша!

end

РАБОТАЮТ КАЛИБРЫ! Ракетные удары по Украине. Рсзо. Одесса наша!

Joe Biden is very relaxed .  Trump slams Biden for his slow response to the Russian attack

Watson//SummitNews

“He’s Probably Sleeping Right Now”: Trump Slams Biden’s Slow Response To Russian Attack

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 07:59 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Donald Trump said Joe Biden is “probably sleeping right now” as it was announced that the president would address Russia’s attack on Ukraine “tomorrow in the early afternoon” after the White House’s only response was to issue a press release.

Biden failed to make a public appearance in the immediate hours after Russian forces bombarded Ukrainian military infrastructure across the country.

The White House issued a press release revealing that Biden will only address the massive escalation “tomorrow in the early afternoon,” presumably after he has woken up.

However, Donald Trump wasted no time in responding to the crisis, appearing on Fox News last night.

After host Laura Ingraham told Trump that Biden was “monitoring the situation” and would speak with G7 leaders about it later on Thursday, Trump slammed the president’s slow response.

“I don’t think he’s monitoring, I think he is probably sleeping right now,” said Trump.

The former president went on to assert that Putin would have never attacked Ukraine if he was still president and the 2020 election hadn’t been “rigged.”

“This should have never happened. This would not have happened during my administration. In fact, some people are saying why didn’t this take place over the last four years? It didn’t for a very good reason and I’ll explain that to you someday, but it wouldn’t have taken place and it wouldn’t have taken place right now. It’s a sad thing for the world and the country and a lot of people that will be needlessly killed,” said Trump.

According to Trump, Putin was emboldened by Biden’s complete mishandling of the Afghanistan pullout.

“He saw the weakness and you know, it really started with the weakness in Afghanistan,” he said. “The way they pulled out of Afghanistan. I really believe that’s where he started thinking he could do this.”

end

UKRAINE/USA RUSSIA

Mises describes the real strength of Russia economically and militarily

(McMaken/Mises)

McMaken: Russian ‘Weakness’ & The Russian “Threat” To The West

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

The current advocates for US aggression against Russia would have us believe that Russia is some sort of peer of the United States and of western Europe. 

Tom Rogan at the hawkish Washington Examiner, for example, insists that Russia is a “great power,” presumably comparable to the United States in spite of Russia’s small economy. 

Moreover, as Ted Galen Carpenter notes, hawks are fond are speaking of modern Russia as if it were pretty much the same thing as the Soviet Union, a state that was considerably larger and more populous than modern-day Russia. Unlike Russia, the Soviet Union was also founded on a totalitarian ideology. 

Older readers might find that sort of thing to be plausible. After all, many people over a certain age are still living in the past, in the days of the Cold War, and still imagine the Soviet Union as it was: a state three times the size of the United States with satellite states that extended well into central Europe.

Even then, though, the old Cold Warriors were wrong when they asserted that there was a “missile gap” with the Soviets, and that the Soviet economy was a juggernaut that rivaled the Western market economies.  In fact, the missile gap was a fantasy concocted by hawks, and the Soviet economy was a basket case, although the always-behind-the-curve CIA was convinced otherwise.  The interventionists were wrong about the Soviets then, and they’re wrong about Russia today. 

In fact, if we look at the demographic, economic, and military realities in Russia, we find them to be well behind the US, and well behind the West in general. 

Population, GDP, and More

First, let’s look at the only one by which the Russian regime might be considered a peer of the US regime: nuclear arms. In his column for the examiner, Rogan is careful to ignore nearly every actual metric related to Russia’s population or military spending. Rather, he notes exactly one statistic to bolster his case—that the Russian state has thousands of nuclear weapons. 

This is true enough, since Russia has about 6,200 warheads while the US has 5,600. Strategically, however, this difference means nothing. Both the US and Russia have nuclear triads and second-strike capability, meaning both countries possess more than enough for deterrence. Moreover, the point at which a nuclear arsenal reaches deterrent capability is closer to “dozens” rather than “thousands.” The fact that the US and Russia have thousands of warheads is a legacy of Cold War public relations, paranoia, and domestic political pressure to produce larger arsenals. Russia isn’t “more powerful” because it has more warheads. Both the US and Russia are more than capable of destroying the planet many times over. Nuclear arms are defensive weapons and only become a likely threat when the nuclear power in question is backed into a corner. 

But what about measures of military capability that demonstrate actual offensive “great power” capability?

Certainly, economic and demographic realities are relevant. And if we look at those, Russia is a third-rate power. 

For example, in terms of GDP (in 2020), Russia is far behind the US, the EU, and a hypothetical Germany-France-UK alliance. Russia is even behind Germany alone. Specifically, the US and the EU have GDP totals around $20 trillion each. Germany-France-UK has a GDP of around $10 trillion, and Germany has a GDP of $4.5 trillion. Russia comes in at 4.3 trillion. In other words, Russia’s economy is only on- fifth the size of the economy in the EU and USA, and less than half the size of Western Europe’s Big 3 combined. 

Source: World Bank Database.

But this tells a very incomplete story of just how far Russia is behind the wealthy West. 

Thanks to decades of Soviet socialism, Russia today is much poorer than its supposed “peers” like the US, Germany, and the UK.  For example, the GDP per capita in the US is over $63,000 while it is less than half that ($29,800) in Russia. By the same measure, Russia amounts to only two-thirds of the EU total, and only slightly more than half of GDP per capita in Germany. 

Source: World Bank Database

When we consider both GDP and GDP per capita together, we notice that Russia’s GDP total is driven largely by its large population. That is, at 145 million people, Russia is larger than any other European country. The next largest is Germany with 83 million people. In other words, even with its anemic GDP per capita, Russia’s GDP seems relatively large thanks to the fact a large number of people—people with lackluster incomes and productivity—happen to live there. 

But this lack of robust GDP per capita also means that the size of Russia’s GDP actually masks Russia’s very limited conventional warmaking capability. This is because Russia’s net resources are relatively low. 

As explained by foreign policy scholar Michael Beckley, a look at GDP also has to take into account net resources above and beyond the basic needs of the population. A large population can produce a large GDP, but that population also requires enormous amounts of food, lodging, and energy. 

States can only seize so much of this for warmaking until living standards are reduced to politically unacceptable levels, thus creating a domestic crisis for the regime. Put another way, because Russians live much closer to subsistence levels than Americans or western Europeans, the ability of the Russian state to devote resources to wars is more limited. 

How to measure this? According to Beckley and Klaus Knorr, a plausible and predictive measure of this “disposable surplus” can be measured by ““simply multiplying GDP by GDP per capita.” 

Once we adjust for the true net availability of resources, we find Russia comes in dead last compared to the larger Western states.

 Source: World Bank Database

Military Spending

So, given all these limitations, just how much is the Russian regime spending on military capability? Unsurprisingly, it is far, far behind the US in total spending. Russia spent approximately $66 billion on military capability in 2020, compared to $766 billion for the United States. Germany, France, and the UK combined spent more than $150 billion. 

In terms of spending as a percentage of GDP, however, the Russian regime spent more than even the US. Russia’s military spending in 2020 equaled 4.3 percent of its GDP, while US spending totaled 3.7 percent. Western European regimes, on the other hand, long accustomed to letting American taxpayers flood NATO members with military welfare spending, tend to spend well below three percent in military spending. 

Source: SIPRI

Specifically, military spending in the UK, France, and Germany are 2.2 percent, 2.1 percent, and 1.4 percent, respectively. 

It should be no surprise that we find these countries—being much wealthier than Russia—are not nearly as close as Russia is to hitting the limits of that critical “disposable surplus.” Even if they doubled their current military spending levels, neither Germany nor France would match Russia in terms of the burden military spending puts on domestic resources. (This is all also why the US should massively cut back its own spending in European defense.)

Fertility and Demographics

Nor can the Russian regime put its hopes in demographics to provide an edge against the West. 

Russia’s fertility rate is similar to that of the EU, which is to say it is among the lowest in the world. It is lower, however, than the fertility rates in Germany, the UK, France, and the US. 

At 146 million, the population of Russia is smaller today than it was in 1989—when it was 147 million. Russia’s population is expected to decline even more. Some estimates conclude Russia’s population could fall below 100 million by 2100. This continues a trend that was already in place across the Soviet Union at the time of that state’s collapse. Union-wide population peaked at around 290 million in the late 1980s, and has never recovered. 

Like many Western wealthy countries, Russia is facing a demographic problem in which the working-age population will have to work harder to support the economic needs of the elderly who increasingly rely on pensions. But unlike the West, which is already wealthy, Russia—much like China which faces a similar problem—faces a future in which it will get old before it gets the chance to get rich. And that’s a geopolitical problem for Russia. 

Why Russia Matters, Even if it’s not a First-Rate Power

At this point the reader may be asking himself, “if Russia is so weak, then it will surely be extremely easy to confront Russia in Ukraine and be done with it.” 

This, however—even in spite of Russia’s many economic and demographic shortcomings—is not the case. 

This is because there is an enormous asymmetry between how the West views Ukraine and how Russia views Ukraine. 

In the US—and through most of the West in general—only the most committed hawks view Ukraine as an area of vital interest. In the US, for example, it is difficult to find a political constituency that believes Ukraine is worth the blood of American troops and the costs of a real war in general. The Russians view Ukraine as a matter of absolutely vital interest, much like the US views Mexico—and much like the US viewed Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis. If Ukraine is taken over by anti-Russian forces, this could be seen in a Moscow something very much worth a costly war. 

When it comes to Ukraine, the Russian regime could be willing to endure very high costs that the West is not politically prepared to endure.  Moscow might be willing to cut deeply into that “disposable surplus” that is necessary for warmaking. If the history of Russia proves nothing over the past 200 years, it’s that the Russian regime is willing to expose its population to extreme deprivation in pursuit of protecting what the regime sees as vital interests. 

These realities also help explain why relatively weak states like Russia are willing to court crisis even from a weakened position. As Kelly Greenhill and Joshua Shifrinson explain in Foreign Policy this week: 

Why would states take such seemingly irrational steps as … military escalation that risk[s] antagonizing much more powerful states and triggering punishing retaliation? Why turn to the creation of crises as a method of influence? …

Far from irrational, crisis generation is a tried-and-true strategy of weak actors seeking negotiations and concessions from stronger actors opposed to granting either. 

Russia’s actions in Ukraine are not the actions of a strong state with the capability of extending its power over vast new frontiers. Rather, the Ukraine situation is the result of the West’s refusal to take seriously Moscow’s concerns over extending NATO closer to the Russian heartland. The West’s repeated dismissal of Russian concerns has forced the relatively weak Russian state to take greater risks. 

This is what is now at work in eastern Ukraine. But none of this means Russia is a great power in the same league with the US, or even with Western Europe. 

END

/. 

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/

CORONAVIRUS/UPDATE/VACCINE MANDATE/EMERGENCY ACT/CANADA

CANADA/CONVOY/EMERGENCY MEASURES ACT

A huge story!! The reason for Trudeau to cancel the emergency measures: a major bank run!

Special thanks to Doug C for providing this for us;

A Major Backfire – Is the Canadian Financial and Banking System in Serious Trouble as a Result of Their Attack on Private Bank Accounts? – The Last Refuge

Inbox

douglas cundey	4:13 PM (17 minutes ago)

A Major Backfire – Is the Canadian Financial and Banking System in Serious Trouble as a Result of Their Attack on Private Bank Accounts?

A Major Backfire – Is the Canadian Financial and Banking System in Serious Trouble as a Result of Their Attack on Private Bank Accounts?

February 23, 2022

Has there been a massive exodus of capital out of the Canadian financial system?

A few obscure but interesting data-points seem to indicate Justin Trudeau’s unprecedented use of the federal government and intelligence apparatus to target the bank accounts of Canadian citizens has just created a serious problem for their financial institutions.

If I was a betting person, I would bet half my stake that something very serious is happening in the background of the Canadian financial system, and it appears the leaders inside government, as well as leaders in the international financial community, are reacting and trying to keep things quiet.  Stick with me on this and stay elevated…

BACKGROUND – When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he was invoking the Emergency War Measures Act to seize bank accounts and block access to the financial system for people who were arbitrarily deemed as terrorists to the interest of the Canadian government, i.e. the Freedom Protest group writ large, many people immediately thought about the consequences of a government taking such action.

Indeed, the first response to many who witnessed the gleeful declarations of the Canadian government as they expressed their intent to utilize their emergency power, was that this was seriously going to undermine faith and confidence in the Canadian financial systems. The RCMP is the Canadian equivalent of the FBI.

If the government can work with the RCMP to target people based on an arbitrary political decree, and then control your bank account while simultaneously giving financial institutions liability protection for their participation, the confidence in the banking system is immediately undermined.

What might seem like a great tool for political punishment has long term consequences, especially if people start withdrawing their money and/or shifting the placement of their investments to more secure locations away from the reach of the Canadian government.  Considering the rules of fractional banking and deposits, it doesn’t take many withdrawals before the banks have serious issues.

DATA POINTS – In addition to being Justin Trudeau’s deputy prime minister, Chrystia Freeland is also the Finance Minister of Canada.  Yesterday, a very twitchy, nervous and gasping for breath Freeland was noted in a very agitated state when she attended the press conference of her boss.  Factually you can watch the video and see how stressed she was and incapable of keeping herself stable [SEE HERE].

Watch that video from the perspective that someone in the international financial world, IMF, World Bank or other affiliate in the world of collective finance has just had a very serious talk with Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.

 Shortly after that very awkward performance, Finance Minister Freeland’s assistant deputy, Isabelle Jacques, informed a parliamentary committee that all bank accounts frozen by the federal government’s use of the Emergency Act, were immediately being unfrozen.

( VIA CBC ) – […] More than 200 bank accounts worth nearly $8 million were frozen when the federal government used emergency powers to end a massive protest occupation of downtown Ottawa.  Federal officials report most of the accounts are now in the process of being released, a parliamentary committee heard Tuesday.

Isabelle Jacques, assistant deputy minister of finance, told a committee of MPs that up to 210 bank accounts holding about $7.8 million were frozen under the financial measures contained in the Emergencies Act. (read more)

Obviously, many people realized from the outset what the Canadian government had done was tenuously legal at best, provided no legal due process or right of challenge, and likely would not pass any serious legal scrutiny.  Unfortunately, in the echo chamber that is far-left liberalism, such matters are not as important as the ideological political motives; but there are people who realize the consequences of power-lust in this application.

Without a doubt, just as you were likely stunned, amazed and then angered by the financial punishment declared by Trudeau, there are people aligned with Trudeau –outside his government– who could see a bigger picture of consequence than those inside the echo chamber.

Central banking finance ministers around the world obviously would pay close attention to what Trudeau just announced, and there are certainly people in the World Economic Forum (WEF) group, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and central bankers who would not be happy about the Canadian government showing just how easy it is to snatch money out of the hands of citizens.

These tools of citizen control are things well known to the central bankers and control agents of finance, but they are never spoken about in polite company – let alone publicized, promoted and openly bragged about.

Justin Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland essentially broke the financial code of Omerta, by highlighting how easy it is for government to seize your bank accounts, credit cards, retirement accounts, insurance, mortgages, loan access and cut you off from money.

Worse yet, the short-sighted Canadian government via Minister Freeland announced their ability to control cryptocurrency exchanges in their country and block access within a financial mechanism that exists almost entirely as an insurance policy and hedge against the exact actions the government was taking.

 A very nervous Finance Minister, Chrystia Freeland, appears with Trudeau to talk about Ukraine.

 Freeland’s underling, Deputy Minister Jacques, is simultaneously telling parliament the bank accounts are being unfrozen.

 The CBC then reports that RCMP officials are taking a 180° reversal in position, about asset seizures.

Then there’s this supportive data-point from Jordan Peterson (Direct Rumble Link):

.

Is the Canadian government now experiencing a serious financial problem as the result of Trudeau and Freeland’s totalitarian lust for power and use of finance to crush their political opposition?

Apply Occam’s Razor here and the result is akin to: ‘How couldn’t they“.

Once that tool is deployed, there’s no putting the toothpaste back into the tube.

END

GLOBE//122 COUNTRIES 

On track to miss their COVID 19 vaccine goal

(zerohedge)

122 Countries On Track To Miss COVID-19 Vaccine Goal

WEDNESDAY, FEB 23, 2022 – 06:00 PM

In October 2021, the WHO’s Independent Allocation of Vaccines Group (IAVG) outlined its Strategy to Achieve Global COVID-19 Vaccination by Mid-2022. In it, the group called for an internationally coordinated vaccine rollout to reach the following objectives: achieve 10 percent vaccine coverage in all countries by the end of September 2021, 40 percent coverage in all countries by the end of December and, ultimately, 70 percent vaccine coverage in all countries halfway through 2022.

By the time the strategy was made public, Statista’s Felix Richter notes that the 10 percent goal had been missed by 56 countries, while 70 countries had already surpassed the 40 percent target by the end of September.

In late December, the IAVG rang the alarm bells once again, saying that 98 countries were about to miss the 40 percent target, citing “the severe vaccine supply constraints to COVAX, which persisted until the last quarter of 2021” as the main reason for the shortfall.

Aside from supply constraints, which are expected to gradually ease in 2022, the IAVG identified further challenges in achieving the 70 percent coverage goal by mid-2022.

“The increase in volumes will create challenges in absorption capacity in resource-poor settings. This includes the capacity to receive, store, distribute, administer, and to record vaccine use, including wastage,” the group warned, before adding that widespread misinformation fueling vaccine hesitancy will be another hurdle in achieving its immunization goal.

According to latest estimates by Our World in Data, large parts of the world are likely to fall short of the WHO’s vaccination target.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Looking at current coverage and the rate of new vaccinations over the past 14 days, the researchers find that 122 countries are currently on a trajectory to miss the 70 percent vaccination goal by the end of June 2022, while 34 countries are on track to meet the target.

Meanwhile most high-income countries have already surpassed the 70 percent milestone, further illustrating the wide gulf in global vaccine distribution.

END

REVEALED: Trudeau Is A Puppet Of Klaus Schwab — Shown Taking Direct Orders From World Economic Forum – enVolve

Inbox

Robert Hryniak	4:00 PM (8 minutes ago)
to

Sadly, this reality and a reality that must be stopped or freedom as we have known it will be over.
As you watch the stocks of Moderna and Pfizer head for the toilet, know that Wall Street has woken up and will sell these stocks off to zero and the insurers and hospital corporations that will be impacted.
The hard  question is what will the public and various governments do in light of a highlighted agenda that clearly has encountered resistance.

REVEALED: Trudeau Is A Puppet Of Klaus Schwab — Shown Taking Direct Orders From World Economic Forum

end

Scientists Find Damning Evidence Linking COVID To Moderna — Covid-19 Contains DNA Code Patented By Moderna YEARS Before Pandemic Began – enVolve

Inbox

Robert Hryniak	3:42 PM (28 minutes ago)
to

No wonder the stock is in free fall!
Diversions of the narrative will not help as this is head for zero. And when the chives lawsuits commence, one might imagine that the likes of Gates maybe in the cross hairs

Scientists Find Damning Evidence Linking COVID To Moderna — Covid-19 Contains DNA Code Patented By Moderna YEARS Before Pandemic Began

Vaccine Impact

German Health Insurance Claims Show 31,254 Deaths Following COVID-19 Vaccines While Official Government Stats Report Only 2,255February 23, 2022 6:14 pmThe entire COVID-19 vaccine narrative continues to come apart at the seams as yet another media report was published today in Germany stating that a large German health insurance company analyzed data from 10.9 million insured individuals regarding injuries and fatalities following COVID-19 vaccines during the first half of 2021 and into the 3rd quarter which showed significantly higher numbers than what the German government has reported. This follows news reports out of the U.S. this past weekend where it was revealed that the CDC, FDA, and NIH contained data about significant COVID-19 vaccine injuries and deaths that were not being reported to the public. Andreas Schöfbeck of German health insurance company BKK Provita was interviewed by the German newspaper Welt, and stated (translated from German): “According to our calculations, we consider 400,000 visits to the doctor by our policyholders because of vaccination complications to be realistic to this day. Extrapolated to the total population, this value would be 3 million. The numbers that resulted from our analysis are very far away from the publicly announced numbers. It would be unethical not to talk about it.”Read More…Rogue Food Conference 2022 is in Florida on March 4thFebruary 23, 2022 7:32 pmAre you interested in joining or starting local food distribution clubs to develop food security for you and your family should the corporate commodity food distribution system collapse?  This year’s Rogue Food Conference is being held in Florida next week. My company, Healthy Traditions, will have a booth and representative present this year.Read More…

Michael Every

on the major topics of the day

Michael Every…

Rabobank: The Fog Of War Descends, Don’t Expect This To Be Resolved Any Time Soon

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 09:45 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The fog of war is now descending on Ukraine. Things are now likely to move *very* fast, but at time of writing: the leaders of the two breakaway Russian republics had sent official requests to Moscow for military aid against “Ukrainian aggression”; the city of Kiev had declared a state of emergency; the country was again experiencing major cyberattacks; the Russian military had closed all civilian Ukrainian airspace along the country’s eastern border –until 18 May– warning it “may experience a high incidence of aircraft collision with missiles”; European airlines are being told Ukraine as a whole is now a “do not fly”; airports in Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhya have had their runways blocked with tractors to prevent Russian paratroopers landing there easily; and President Zelenskiy gave a speech that had the feel of being one for the history books. Allow me to quote some of it below from live simultaneous translation on Twitter:

“Today I initiated a phone conversation with the president of the Russian Federation. The result was silence. Although it’s the Donbas where there should be silence…We are divided by a shared border of more than 2,000km. Almost 200,000 of your troops and thousands of military vehicles are standing alongside it. Your leadership has ordered them to move forward, onto another country’s territory. This step could be the start of a big war on the European continent. The whole world is talking about what could happen any day now… Any provocation. Any flare-up – one that could burn everything.”

“They’re telling you that this flame will liberate the people of Ukraine, but the Ukrainian people are free. They remember their past and are building their future… Ukraine on your TV news and the real Ukraine are two totally different countries. Ours is real. They told you I’m ordering an attack on Donbas, to open fire and bomb indiscriminately… to shoot at whom? to bomb whom?”

“I’m speaking Russian, but nobody in Russia understand what these places, streets, and events are. This is our land and our history. What are you fighting for? And with whom? Lots of you have relatives in Ukraine, you studied in Ukrainian universities, you have Ukrainian friends. You know our character, our principles, what matters to us. Listen to yourselves, to the voice of reason.”

“The people of Ukraine want peace. The government of Ukraine wants peace. It’s doing everything it can. We’re not alone. That’s true, lots of countries support Ukraine. Because this isn’t about peace at any price. It’s about peace, principles, justice, international law, the right to determine your own future. This is about society’s right to be safe and people’s rights to live without threats. This is all important for us and for the world. I know for sure that this is important for you too.”

“We know for sure that we don’t need war – neither cold, nor hot, nor hybrid. But if troops attack us and someone tries to take away our country, our freedom, our lives, the lives of our children, then we will defend ourselves. We will defend ourselves. When you attack, you will see our faces, not our backs. War is a great misfortune and it comes at a great price. People lose their money, reputation, freedom, living standards, and most importantly – they lose their loved ones and themselves. Nothing’s ever enough in a war, but there’s more than enough pain, dirt, and death. Tens of thousands of deaths.”

“They’re telling you that Ukraine could be a threat for Russia. That never happened in the past, it’s not, and won’t in the future. You demand security guarantees from NATO. We demand guarantees of our security. The security of Ukraine. From you, Russia, and the other guarantors of the Budapest memorandum. We aren’t in any defensive alliances. Ukraine’s security is tied to our neighbours’ security. Today we need to talk about the security of the whole of Europe. But our main goal is peace in Ukraine and the security of our citizens, Ukrainians. We will tell everyone, including you, in different formats, in any venue.”

“War will take guarantees away from everyone. Nobody will have security guarantees anymore. Who will suffer most of all? People. Who doesn’t want that to happen more than anyone? People. Who can stop that? People. These people are among you. I’m sure. Activists, journalists, musicians, actors, athletes, scientists, doctors, bloggers, stand-up comedians, TikTokers, and many others. Ordinary people, simple people, men, women, the old, the young, fathers, and most of all – mothers. Just like the people in Ukraine. Just like the government in Ukraine. However they try to convince you otherwise.”

“I know that Russian TV won’t show my speech. But citizens of Russia need to see it. They need to see the truth. The truth is you need to stop before it’s too late. And if the leadership of Russia doesn’t want, for the sake of peace, to sit at the table with us, maybe it’ll sit at the table with you. Do the Russians want war? I’d love to answer that question. But the answer only depends on you – citizens of Russia.”

I hope the hair on the back of you necks is standing up, as Zelenskiy had been a consistent voice trying to downplay the risks of Russian invasion. Meanwhile, Russian state TV are showing a map of Ukraine that only names a small central region of the country as “Ukraine”, with the rest of its territory titled “Gifts from the (Russian) czars; gifts from Lenin; gift from Stalin; gift from Khruschev.” The messaging is clear. And, no, the Russian people who see that will not also get to hear Zelenskiy’s call for them to rise up in protest – but it will be taken as a further attack by a paranoid Moscow after what happened in both Belarus and Kazakhstan.

In short, just as we flagged a month ago, it appears we are headed for a serious war in Ukraine starting as soon as today. Given the failure of Russia to achieve any of its political goals vis-à-vis Ukraine, except a lack of NATO membership that was already unlikely to ever change, this only raises the strategic imperative to use more military force. Indeed, if war starts then we won’t have seen a Russian operation on such a scale since the Second Chechen War of 1999-2000. Here are some images of that to sober you.

We have already shown what this is likely to mean for markets: further downside for equities; and for bond yields – and another huge problem central banks don’t understand and cannot control; huge increases in key commodity prices; higher inflation (only NOW about Ukraine!); lower economic growth; and in FX, a stronger US dollar and JPY, a far weaker ruble, and while CNY will remain pegged to the US for now, one wonders how other EM FX will fare as prices soar. But this is just the start.

Will we see more biting sanctions as a result of these actions? The ones we have already seen were either deliberately designed to scare, not hurt, or were drawn up by people who don’t understand Russia at all. If we stick with milquetoast measures, Russia is unshaken; if we impose harsh sanctions, markets are shaken. Which is it to be? Consider this current Russian military move has been slow and deliberate. That means it has planned out all possible Western responses and likely costs. Are they factoring in that the West won’t sanction them, or that they can thrive even if they do?

If Europe’s borders are now to be redrawn by force, so will geopolitics be. Poland and Lithuania now back Ukraine for EU membership. Of course, the West of the EU will reject that for many reasons – but intra-EU tensions may rise at this lack of solidarity at a time of crisis. Finland’s PM has just flagged it may join NATO. Again, this leaves Russia in a far worse national security position – unless it can achieve a major victory in Ukraine that won’t come via posturing or a de minimis attack. China’s looming strategic decision is also clear, as noted yesterday. Despite censoring all of Putin’s attacks on Lenin’s errors this week (which are taboo: Mao broke from the USSR after Khrushchev broke from Stalin over Marxist ideology, and Vietnam censored the news too), Beijing is so far blaming this all on the US for supporting Ukraine, which has parallels that should be clear.

If Europe’s borders are now to be redrawn by force, so will geoeconomics be. Aside from sanctions, long just-in-time global supply chains tried to shrug off the US-China trade war; then Covid; now they have to deal with war. How long until governments enforce supply-chain ‘resilience’ on firms that opt to do the complete opposite of taking out economic insurance and so leave the entire national economy more vulnerable while they make higher profits? e.g., on-shoring or shortening supply chains; having multiple import and export markets; and/or limiting dealing with states/entities that are well known ‘risk points’. In peacetime, the answer might be “they won’t, because markets”; in wartime, is that still true? We shall see, but the historical track record is pretty clear – national security wins by knock-out. And what of governments that have actively supported such non-resilient business strategies “because mercantilism”? How long until allies lean on them “because national security”? Think of what just happened to Nord Stream 2, and what we argued about Germany’s existential choices in ‘“Ich Bin Ein Berliner”(?)’.

Expect a risk-off day in markets. Expect major volatility. Expect the fog of war: known and unknown unknowns, fake news, false flags, and even censorship can all be expected; sadly, so can “pain, dirt, and death”. And don’t expect this to be resolved by the end of the day, or the end of the week, or the end of the month.

7. OIL ISSUES

Saudi’s warn of an oil shortage

(Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

Saudis Warn Of Oil Shortage Shock, Blame “Net Zero” For Underinvestment

WEDNESDAY, FEB 23, 2022 – 06:20 PM

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

The world’s top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, has repeatedly said it wants to be the producer that will pump the very last barrel of oil. Until that time comes, the world and its growing economy will still need oil and gas, even as renewable energy capacity soars globally. The rebound of economies after the 2020 COVID slump has shown that global oil demand is not only not declining, but it is just months away from reaching pre-pandemic levels and exceeding them. This weekend, Saudi Arabia once again deplored the underinvestment in oil and gas and said that focusing only on renewables while campaigning against oil and gas was a mistake.    

“Net Zero Does Not Mean Zero Oil”

The insufficient investment in the oil and gas industry harms consumers, raises concerns about short-term supply shortages, and creates challenges for policymakers, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said at the 2022 International Petroleum Technology Conference (IPTC) in Riyadh this weekend. The campaign against oil and gas investments is shortsighted, the minister said, as carried by Arab News.

The sole focus on renewables is a mistake, said the most influential oilman of the OPEC+ coalition.

“The net-zero does not mean cherrypicking, net-zero does not mean zero oil,” he added.

The sharp decline in oil and gas investments has created a danger “that the world will not be able to produce all the energy it needs to promote recovery,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said at the conference, per the Saudi Press Agency. The Saudi minister also criticized the International Energy Agency (IEA) for its contradictory messages, from “no new investment ever again” last year to calls last week for more investment in oil and gas amid the current energy crisis and soaring oil prices.  

Saudi Arabia Boosts Oil Production Capacity

While the supermajors and U.S. shale are not racing to invest in new supply, Saudi Arabia plans to raise its crude oil production capacity by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) within five years. Saudi Arabia’s oil giant Aramco targets to increase its oil production capacity to 13 million barrels per day by 2027 from 12 million bpd now.

“We are targeting our production capacity to become 13.4, 13.5 million barrels a day by 2027,” Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman told TIME’s Vivienne Walt in an interview published earlier this month.

“We believe oil consumption will continue to grow. The demand for oil will continue growing. At what level, I do not know, because the jury is out. Anyone who tells you that they have a good grasp of where and when and how much is certainly living in a fantasy land,” he said.

So, Saudi Arabia and its state oil giant Aramco are doubling down on oil, expecting robust global demand. The world’s top oil exporter is doing its part in ensuring oil production capacity for later this decade when chronic underinvestment in oil will have impacted supply already.

“We intend to remain the world’s top producer,” Yasir Othman Al-Rumayyan, Chairman of Saudi Aramco’s Board of Directors and the Governor of the Public Investment Fund, said at the same conference in Riyadh this weekend.

Renewable energy sources depend on materials that can only be produced with hydrocarbons, Al-Rumayyan said, noting the steel, diesel trucks, and resin-coated blades inputs in building, transporting, and erecting a wind turbine, for example. 

“So make no mistake, oil and gas are part of this transition. We have a vital role to play. And we intend to be in business for a very long time,” Aramco’s chairman said. “It’s often assumed that the only thing holding back a net-zero future is a lack of ambition. That’s wrong. Our industry has ambition in abundance. The truth is that there are still some very complex technology challenges that we haven’t yet solved,” Al-Rumayyan added.

 Underinvestment Could Create Next Supply Shortage Shock

Throughout the net-zero commitments and “keep it in the ground” calls of the past few years, Saudi Arabia hasn’t changed its message to the energy industry—renewables are not enough, underinvestment in oil and gas threatens to create supply shortages, and a rushed transition will lead to increased volatility and higher energy prices.

Over the past few months, the world saw first-hand what fossil fuel shortages could be like. Government priorities turned from actions to reduce emissions in the long term to addressing the immediate energy crunch, soaring energy bills, and catering for the near-term energy security.

Global annual upstream spending needs to increase by as much as 54 percent to $542 billion if the oil market is to avert the next supply shortage shock, Moody’s said last year. The chief executive of Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, said that the World Petroleum Congress in Texas in December:

“Right now, the world is facing an ever more chaotic energy transition. Several highly unrealistic scenarios and assumptions about the future of energy are clouding the picture.” 

“Energy security, economic development, and affordability imperatives are clearly not receiving enough attention. Until they are, and unless the glaring gaps in the transition strategy are fixed, the chaos will only intensify,” Saudi Aramco’s CEO noted.

Commenting on the current commodity markets, Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said earlier this month that “This is a molecule crisis. We’re out of everything, I don’t care if it’s oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we’re out of it.”

end

KIEV/THIS AFTERNOON

Chaos Hits Kyiv As People Flee City Following Russian Bombardment

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 11:50 AM

An exodus appears to be underway in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv after Russian forces bombarded the country Thursday. Traffic data and videos circulating on social media platforms seem to confirm people are fleeing the city as full-scale invasion fears soar. 

Location tracking company TomTom reports three highways out of Kyiv are experiencing “major delays” as President Vladimir Putin unleashed a barrage of missiles, artillery, and airstrikes across the country, triggering one of the worst security crises in Europe in more than half a century. 

TomTom shows that traffic data in Kyiv has been rising since Monday and could explain people have been fleeing the metro area since Monday (only now it’s a mass panic). 

Confirming TomTom’s data is an abundance of videos and pictures posted on Twitter. The first video was sent to Bussiness Insider from Ukrainian MP Ivanna Klympush showing “thousands of cars” leaving the city after “explosions.” 

German outlet DW News shares multiple videos of gridlocked highways around Kyiv. 

More videos were posted online of the traffic situation on the ground. 

Making matters worse for anyone trying to leave Kyiv, the government restricted civilian flights in its airspace due to “potential hazard.” Anyone who was planning to leave the area appears stuck. 

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s national security council introduced a state of emergency to ensure calm remains – though that doesn’t appear to be the case today. 

Hours after Russian troops launched an attack on Ukraine, long lines of traffic could be seen on a road leading out of the capital Kyiv.

Hours after Russian troops launched an attack on Ukraine, long lines of traffic could be seen on a road leading out of the capital Kyiv. pic.twitter.com/elNyh4hNFF

— DW News (@dwnews) February 24, 2022

Ukrainian MP

@IKlympush

sent Insider’s

@billbostockUK

this video from her drive into Kyiv Thursday morning, as thousands of cars headed in the opposite direction after explosions in the city

Russia Offers Record Discount For Its Oil As Buyers Pause, Struggle To Finance

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 11:33 AM

Three buyers of Russian crude oil have been unable to open letters of credit from Western banks to cover their purchases, four Reuters trading sources said on Thursday following the Russian attack on Ukraine.

As Julianne Geiger writes at OilPrice.com, banks are understandably hesitant to extend credit for purchases of Russian crude, given the current situation between Russia, Ukraine, and the West.

A letter of credit is a letter issued by banks that guarantees a buyer’s payment to a seller will be received on time and for the correct amount. However, banks may find such a definitive guarantee hard to stand by after Russia arrived in Ukraine cities by land and sea early on Thursday morning in what Russian President Vladimir Putin referred to as a “special military operation.”

Missile fire was reported near the city of Kiyv, and Russia has landed in port cities such as Odesa. Crude oil prices have shot up as a result, with Brent crude spiking to more than $104 per barrel.

So who is trying to purchase Russian crude oil? Buyers of Russian oil include Big Oil companies such as BP, Chevron, Exxon, Shell, and TotalEnergies, to name just a few. Trading houses, including Trafigura and Vitol, also purchase Russian crude oil.

Vitol also trades with Russian mining companies, according to Vitol’s website. 

The anonymous Reuters sources have not disclosed which banks refused to offer letters of credit for the Russian crude oil, but any halt in the flow of Russian crude oil, which exports 7.5 million barrels of crude oil and crude oil products per day, including to the United States.

In November of last year, 17.8 million barrels of Russian crude oil and petroleum products made their way to the United States.

And we note that the US imported an average of 106,000 barrels per day last week from Russia…

We await the sanctions news later today to see what happens with that data next, and more than 12 million barrels of Russian-origin crude oil and refined products are en route to the U.S. aboard almost two dozen vessels for delivery in the next month, according to oil-analytics firm Vortexa.

Additionally, as Bloomberg reports, some oil traders are pausing purchases of Russia’s crude while they wait to see how the West responds to the nation’s invasion of Ukraine.

Five crude traders and refinery officials said that there’s currently a hiatus in buying of Russian barrels.

“The restrictions will be very deep. We’re expecting most European banks will pull out of financing any commodities from Russia. Letters of credit are being stopped, financing in general towards Russian commodities is being stopped,” said Igho Sanomi, founder of energy trading company Taleveras.

The pause mirrors what’s happening in the oil-tanker market, where owners are also avoiding offering their ships to transport the nation’s crude.

“The key word today is obviously hold off and do not do anything that could backfire in the future,” said Hugo De Stoop, chief executive of Euronav, one of the world’s biggest tanker owners, in an interview.

“At the moment, we’re not touching any cargo that’s linked to Russia.”

The situation has seen traders rushing to secure supplies from elsewhere in the world, according to Frontline Ltd., one of the world’s largest owners of supertankers.

In response to this pause in buying (or inability to find credit), Russia has slashed its price for Urals crude to a record $9.80 discount to Brent, according to Platts…

That is almost 10x wider than the average over the past few years.

“We’re a big buyer of Urals, but we’re not buying at the moment,” said a person at a major European refiner.

“We stopped about a month ago.”

So, everyone needs Russian oil… but everyone is also terrified to buy it right now due to fears over sanctions.

 

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL//COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

END

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.11172 UP .0133 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED    

USA/ YEN 114.83  DOWN  0.084 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3395  DOWN   0.01505

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 59.19 PTS OR 1.70%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 758,72 PTS OR 3.21%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 2.95%   // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL RED  

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED    

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG  758.72 PTS OR 3.21%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 59.19 PTS OR 1.70%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 2.95%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 478.79 PTS OR 1.81%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1961.70

silver:$25.32-

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 97.11  DOWN 13  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.07%  DOWN 7  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.187%  DOWN 0 AND 9/10   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.18%// DOWN 8   in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 1.82 DOWN 12    points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 64 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +0.172% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.65% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1148  DOWN .0157    or 157 basis points

USA/Japan: 115.39 UP 0.497 OR YEN DOWN 50  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3356 DOWN 189  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN 111 pts to 1.2845

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED )..DOWN 6.3292  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.3281

TURKISH LIRA:  14.04  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.198

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 6  IN basis points from FRIDAY at  1.939% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.255 DOWN 4 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.38  UP 119   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 286.19 PTS OR 3.82%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 586.32 points or 4.01%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 270.77PTS OR 3.99% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 240.40PTS OR 2.85%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 1064.56 PTS OR 4.10%

WTI Oil price 96.91    12: EST

Brent Oil:  103.73  12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   RUBLE FALLS:   86.84 DOWN   5,43 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE LOWER BY 543  BASIS PTS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.172

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.1201 DOWN  .0104   OR 104 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3387 DOWN  .01579 or 158 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 115.55 UP .645

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2808 UP .0074 (CDN dollar DOWN 74 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 93.17

Brent: 98.88

USA 10 yr bond yield: 1.964 DOWN 3 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.280  DOWN 2  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.02

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE:  85.14 DOWN 3.74 ROUBLES (ROUBLE DOWN 374 PTS)//

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE UP 92.07 PTS OR 0.28%

NASDAQ 100 UP465.24 PTS OR 3.44%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 29.47 PTS DOWN 1.55 OR 5.00%

GLD: $177.14 DOWN $1.55 OR 0.65%

SLV: $22.31 DOWN $.42 OR 1.85%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Massive Roundtrips Across Global Markets As Russia Sanctions Fears Abate

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Well that was a night and a day…

As Goldman’s Chris Hussey summarized today, “the Russia-Ukraine conflict transitioned from a ‘known unknown’ to a ‘known known’ today, in the parlance of Wall Street, and markets may be showing some signs of embracing a bit of the diminishing ‘uncertainty’.”

The most devastating package of sanctions ever in the history of the world, avoided touching any commodity product and did not include SWIFT restrictions and that was all the excuse that was needed for traders to lift hedges, punching stocks higher.

Today’s rebound (from down 4% to up 3.5%) was the biggest intraday jump in NQ futs since 3.13.2020 as The Fed unleashed hell on the bears.

All the US majors got back into the green by the close…

(Today was a bigger swing than on 4/6/2020… the day that SBA unveiled the Paycheck Protection Program.)

The Nasdaq futures was down 22% from its highs overnight – in bear market territory – but no longer.

For context, here is performance from last Friday (before Putin’s address)…

VIX (futures) roundtripped dramatically too – spiking to 34 overnight before plunging back to 29…

All on the back of a giant short-squeeze…

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-hike odds plunged with March now pricing in (barely) just one rate-hike (after pricing in 2 rate-hikes just two weeks ago)…

Source: Bloomberg

And Rate-cut expectations continue for 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

So here are some more fun roundtrips…

WTI ended barely positive after exploding up to over $100…

NatGas (Henry Hub) shot higher overnight, then reversed almost all of it after the president’s sanctions speech…

Gold actually ended the day lower, back below $1900… after screaming higher above $1975 intraday…

Bitcoin went from a selling scramble to total panic-buying…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were bid overnight as the world dived into safe-havens, then as Biden spoke, the world started puking all those bonds back and yields shot back higher….

Source: Bloomberg

Even the Ruble rebounded after crashing to its weakest on record against the dollar…

Source: Bloomberg

Russian stocks rebounded too(this is VanEck Russia ETF)…

Credit markets went from Lena Dunham to Halle Berry…

And finally, the world was in “Extreme Fear” this morning…

We wonder what state of euphoria or dysphoria it will feel tomorrow.

I)LATE LAST NIGHT /MORNING TRADING/

WAR DECLARED!!~

Global Markets Unravel As Putin Launches “Military Operation” In Ukraine

WEDNESDAY, FEB 23, 2022 – 10:30 PM

As Russian President Putin announces a “special military operation” in Ukraine and warns of “consequences” for foreign interference, global markets are turmoiling.

US equity futures are rapidly extending losses from the day session, down around 2-3% since the close…

This pushes Nasdaq into a bear market.

VIX futures have spiked above 32…

Bitcoin is getting hammered…

Oil is soaring with WTI above $95…

…and Brent tops $100…

US NatGas is spiking back near $5…

And gold topped $1930…

Wheat futures are up over 5%…

Bonds are also bid with 10Y yields down around 8bps from yesterday’s highs now…

Rate-hike odds are falling significantly. The odds of a 50bps hike in March has dropped to 25% (from 40% earlier) and the odds of 7 rate-hikes by Dec 2022 is now down to 20% from 55% earlier…

Ruble forwards are crashing to new record lows against the dollar…

Stagflation here we come!!

END

AFTERNOON

Huge sanctions against Russia but still Russia can use SWIFT

(zerohedge)

Biden Vows “US Forces Are Not Going To Fight In Ukraine” While Unveiling ‘Devastating Sanctions’

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 02:17 PM

Update(2:17pmET): Among the most important parts of Biden’s speech was his vowing that US troops would not engage Russia in Ukraine – but while also reemphasizing that the United States would defend NATO soil, at a moment additional US troops are going to Germany, and as more US fighter jets deploy to allied Baltic states to protect NATO territory.

Crucially direct sanctions on Putin himself are not currently on the table, and it’s now clear that disconnecting Russia from SWIFT is not part of the fresh measures as well. “Putin will be a pariah on the international stage,” Biden said, and warned that Russia’s allies will be “stained by association”.

“When the history of this era is written, Putin’s choice to make a totally unjustifiable war on Ukraine will have left Russia weaker and the rest of the world stronger,” Biden said. Some of the actions include…

• BIDEN IMPOSING STRONG SANCTIONS, NEW LIMITS ON RUSSIA
• BIDEN: IMPACT ON U.S., ALLIES WILL BE MINIMIZED
• BIDEN: PUTIN IS THE AGRESSOR
• BIDEN: RUSSIA ABILITY TO DEAL IN YENS, EUROS TO BE LIMITED *BIDEN: SANCTIONING RUSSIA BANKS
• BIDEN: WILL BLOCK FOUR MAJOR RUSSIA BANKS
• BIDEN: ADDING SANCTIONS ON RUSSIAN ELITES
• BIDEN: WILL CUT OFF SOME OF RUSSIA IMPORTS
• BIDEN SAYS ESTIMATE SANCTIONS WILL CUT OFF MORE THAN HALF OF RUSSIA’S HIGH-TECH IMPORTS
• BIDEN SAYS U.S. FORCES WILL NOT FIGHT IN UKRAINE
• BIDEN: AUTHORIZING ADDITIONAL FORCES TO GERMANY
• BIDEN: SWIFT ALWAYS AN OPTION, RIGHT NOW NO PLAN TO USE
• PENTAGON ORDERS ADDITIONAL DEPLOYMENT OF ABOUT 7,000 TO EUROPE
• UKRAINE HEALTH MINISTER SAYS 57 KILLED AND 169 WOUNDED TODAY

The Q&A portion with the press included this epic exchange on the US domestic impact with FOX’s correspondent:

And more via breaking Bloomberg wires:

• Western Allies See Kyiv Falling to Russian Forces Within Hours (7:54 p.m.)
• Kyiv may fall to Russian forces tonight as Ukraine’s air defenses have been effectively eliminated, according to a senior Western intelligence official.
• Russian troops are advancing toward Ukraine down both sides of the Dnieper river and look set to take the capital, the official said. 

Below: up close shot of Russian special forces taking a Ukrainian airport…

* * *

President Biden will address the nation in the world in his first televised comments since the 5am (Kiev time) large-scale air and ground Russian-Belarussian invasion of Ukraine. Given that obviously Putin was completely undeterred by Biden’s meager and minimal “first tranche” of sanctions announced earlier, the president is now vowing the ‘toughest sanctions ever’. The big question remains: will Biden hit Vladimir Putin with sanctions personally? Will the West move to cut off Russia from the SWIFT payment system? 

President Biden took to Twitter before the address…

Watch Live (remarks originally scheduled for 12:30ET were moved to 1:30ET – with more delays possible):

To review what’s on the table, CNN writes: “Set to address the nation Thursday afternoon, Biden is expected to unveil new measures that could cut off Russia from advanced technology, announce new restrictions on large financial institutions and slap sanctions on additional members of the inner circle of Russian President Vladimir Putin.”

According to the breaking news wires, the UK has been the first to act among Western allies, rolling out with these initial serious measures: 

• RUSSIA TO BE BARRED FROM RAISING SOVEREIGN DEBT IN U.K. MARKETS
• U.K. TO FREEZE ASSETS OF RUSSIA’S VTB BANK IMMEDIATELY
• U.K. BLOCKS RUSSIAN COMPANIES FROM RAISING FINANCE IN LONDON
• UK TO BAN AEROFLOT AIRCRAFT FROM LANDING IN UK
• U.K. IMPOSES SANCTIONS ON OVER 100 RUSSIA INDIVIDUALS, ENTITIES
• JOHNSON: BANNING EXPORT OF HIGH-TECH COMPONENTS TO RUSSIA 

Concerning UK actions, there’s no mention of SWIFT – strongly suggesting this isn’t on the White House menu of punitive measures at this point. 

The big question will remain: will Biden hit Vladimir Putin with sanctions personally?

Putin has previously said he would consider such a direct move against a sitting head of state ‘an act of war’. Meanwhile, could there be a lull in the fierceness of Russian military action by day’s end?

RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY SAYS IT ACHIEVED ALL ITS GOALS FOR THURSDAY – IFAX

Here’s what Ukraine is tentatively demanding, issued in the opening hours of the all-out assault:

All this as the US is reportedly moving fighter jets into Baltic NATO ally states. While this is to be expected given airspace over the Baltics is routinely monitored by NATO fighters, it brings the US a bit closer to the possibility of tangling with Russian fighters in the region. 

Finally, we wonder just what the Biden administration feels about this conversation that former president Trump had about Germany being ‘owned’ by Russia…

Certainly makes imposing those “tough” sanctions a lot harder eh!

END

II) USA DATA

As expected second estimate of Q4 GDP up to 7%

(BEA)

US GDP Grew 7.0% In Second Estimate Of Q4 Growth

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 08:44 AM

While there are far more pressing matters at hand, moments ago the BEA reported its second estimate of Q4 GDP which came in just as expected at 7.0%, up from the 6.9% reported in the first estimate.

Personal consumption rose 3.1% in 4Q after rising 2.0% prior quarter; this missed estimates of a 3.4% increase.

The fourth quarter increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in inventory investment, exports, consumer spending, and business investment that were partly offset by decreases in both federal and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Some more details from the report:

• The increase in inventory investment primarily reflected increases in retail(led by motor vehicle and parts dealers) and wholesale (led by durable goods industries).
• The increase in exports reflected increases in both goods (led by consumer goods) and services (led by travel).
• The increase in consumer spending primarily reflected an increase in services(led by health care, financial services and insurance, and transportation). Consumer spending for goods also increased (led by recreational goods and vehicles).
• The increase in business investment primarily reflected an increase in intellectual property products (led by research and development as well as software)that was partly offset by a decrease in structures (led by commercial and health care).
• The decrease in federal government spending primarily reflected a decrease in defense spending on intermediate goods and services (led by services).
• The decrease in state and local government spending reflected a decrease in gross investment (led by new educational structures)

Numerically, this is how the 6.990% GDP number:

• Personal consumption added 2.13%, down from the 2.25% in the first estimate
• Fixed investment contributed 0.48%, higher than the 0.25% initially
• Change in private inventories was unchanged at 4.90%
• Net trade was virtually flat, subtracting -0.07% from the bottom line number, vs a 0.0% print in the first estimate.
• Government consumption subtracted slightly less than initially estimated, or -0.45% vs -0.51% in the 1st estimate.

And visually:

On the inflation front, the GDP price index rose 7.1% in 4Q after rising 6.0% prior quarter; this was slightly above the 6.9% estimate; the closely watched core PCE q/q rose 5.0% in 4Q after rising 4.6% prior quarter; this also printed higher than the expected 4.9%.

Overall, the report is largely meaningless as attention has long since turned to how the US economy is performing in Q1 and onward, and it is here that as discussed earlier, storm clouds are gathering; and should the Ukraine war send commodity prices even higher, the resulting global slowdown will surely tip the US into a recession

end

To be expected: new home sales tumbleas mortgage rates soar

(zerohedge)

US New Home Sales Tumble In January As Mortgage Rates Soar

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 10:07 AM

Despite existing home sales unexpected surge in January, new home sales are expected to drop modestly (-1.2% MoM) jn January (after a huge unexpected surge in December), but sales actually tumbled considerably more (down 4.5% MoM) to 801k SAAR (from 839k SAAR).

Source: Bloomberg

However, on a year-over-year basis, new home sales are still notably lower.

Was the surge in December just demand pulled forward as mortgage rates started to accelerate?

Source: Bloomberg

Median home prices in January were just shy of all time high at $423,300 (+13.4% YoY)… (and average new home price – $496,900 – did indeed hit a new all-time high)

Bloomberg reports that while underlying demand for new homes remains solid, fueled in part by record low inventory in the resale market, the highest mortgage rates since mid-2019 represent a headwind. Higher materials costs are also contributing to housing inflation and sidelining many prospective buyers.

Homebuilder confidence is ebbing a little, but remains nothing relative to the collapse in ‘real’ homebuyer confidence (as opposed to yield-seeking investment buyers)…

Source: Bloomberg

Will Powell’s rate-hikes make that situation any better?

IIb) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATE STORIES

end

iii) USA inflation commentaries//LOG JAMS//

Inflation is decimated the lower run of USA society.  Rent a center’s earning plummeting

(zerohedge)

Rent-A-Center Gives Dire Update On State Of US Consumer

THURSDAY, FEB 24, 2022 – 08:20 AM

In the bottom-up hierarchy of retailers catering to the lowest rungs of US society, there is Dollar Tree and Dollar General, and somewhere in their immediate orbit, is Rent-a-Center, which caters to those Americans who can’t afford to purchase outright, and whose credit is too low to finance, and are thus stuck renting out any certain “aspirational” product – like, say, a microwave. In short, its captive audience is America’s lower and lower-middle classes.

And unfortunately for the US, it is this lowest ring on the social ladder that is now getting decimated.

After the close Rent-a-center reported earnings that were simply horrendous: the company said that in Q4 it generated adjusted EPS $1.08 which badly missed estimates of  $1.61 on revenue of $1.17 billion, which also missed the estimate of $1.2 billion. But it was the company’s forecast that was catastrophic: the company now sees adjusted EPS of $4.50 to $5.00, far below the consensus estimate of $7.04; its revenue guidance of $4.45 billion to $4.60 billion was likewise a disaster compared to the estimate of $5.27 billion, with adjusted Ebitda in the $515 million to $565 million range, far below the estimate of $747.4 million.

What caused this collapse? The following commentary from the earnings call explains it:

“In the fourth quarter, the combined effect of significantly reduced government pandemic relief, decades-high rates of inflation, and supply chain disruptions impacted our target customers’ ability to access and afford durable goods, which negatively impacted our results. We anticipate these external headwinds will continue for the foreseeable future, resulting in year-over-year declines in revenue and earnings for 2022, on a pro forma basis, while free cash flow should increase for the year.”

Translation: after a year sustained by seemingly endless “stimmies” the US consumer is now hitting a brick wall, with the poorest getting hit first and hardest. This is precisely what both we, and Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson have been saying for months, and it is this sharp and unexpected hit to consumption that is behind the sharp slowdown in the US economy which has little to do with the Omicron hiccup in December and January.

But how is that possible – after all recent retail sales have been soaring and trending much higher than they were before covid, which to most economists has been a confirmation of just how durable US consumption is. Well, no: one look at the trendline comparison in retail sales and real disposable personal income shows just how unsustainable and artificial the bubble in retail sales has been.

And now that stimmies are gone, disposable income is collapsing. As for retail sales, the reason why they have been red hot is simple: with US consumers expecting even higher prices in just a few months, they are buying now to avoid paying even more in the future.

More ominously, the Rent-a-Center commentary confirms what Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson noted last week when he predicted a sharp slowdown in the economy when he noted that  “whether it’s the payback in demand, or sharp decline in real personal disposable income, the rate of consumption is likely to disappoint expectations in the first half of 2022. Furthermore, this weaker consumption is arriving just as supply chains are finally loosening up, something that is likely to be aided by the end of Omicron and the labor shortages it has created in the transportation and logistics industries.”

And while we wait to see the market to finally realize just how serious the coming slowdown is, the 40% collapse in RCII stock price after hours will serve as an ominous harbinger of just how big and painful the “repricing” of the US consumer, and economy, will be in the coming months.

end

iii) USA economic stories

END

iv)swamp stories

end

KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES

 Biden’s First Salvo of Russia Sanctions Hits with Thud, Not Roar – BBG
    U.S. says penalties will work, but lawmakers demand more
    Biden tactics risk tempting Putin to widen Ukraine aggression
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-23/biden-s-first-salvo-of-russia-sanctions-hits-with-thud-not-roar
 
Eying inflation, U.S. unlikely to block Russia oil sales if Putin invades -officials
The Biden administration is not expected to target Russia’s crude oil and refined fuel sector with sanctions cutting off trade, due to concerns about inflation and the harm it could do to its European allies, global oil markets and U.S. consumers, administration officials told Reuters…
https://www.reuters.com/world/eying-inflation-us-unlikely-block-russia-oil-sales-if-putin-invades-officials-2022-02-23/
 
Putin apparently correctly calculated that Biden would not sanction Russia’s energy industry due to negative political blowback via inflation for Biden and Democrats.
 
Russia’s oil and gas revenue windfall (Sanctioning energy is the best way to hurt Russia.)
Russia’s sales of oil and natural gas far exceeded initial forecasts for 2021 as a result of skyrocketing prices, accounting for 36% of the country’s total budget… According to the central bank, Russia’s total exports reached $489.8 billion in 2021. Of that, crude oil accounted for $110.2 billion, oil products for $68.7 billion, pipeline natural gas for $54.2 billion and liquefied natural gas $7.6 billion…
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-oil-gas-revenue-windfall-2022-01-21/
 
Ex-advisor to 6 US presidents Harald Malmgren @Halsrethink: Putin just warned “Weapons without parallel in the world are being put on combat duty.” These ominous words escalate threats far beyond Biden Administration cautious Ukraine calculations today. (Harald experienced the 1962 Cuban Crisis)
 
Putin warns hypersonic missiles are ready to launch & stockpiles blood ‘for war’ as Ukraine declares state of emergency – Putin has given a chilling warning that “weapons without parallel in the world have been put on combat duty”… “We will continue to develop advanced weapons systems – including hypersonic,” he said…
https://www.the-sun.com/news/4750372/russia-blood-medical-putin-ukrainian-weapons-warning/
 
Exclusive: US Warns Ukraine of Full-Scale Russian Invasion Within 48 Hours 9:35 AM EST
“Additionally,” the U.S. official added, “reporting from aircraft observers indicates Russia violated Ukrainian airspace earlier today, flying possible reconnaissance aircraft for a short period over Ukraine.”  https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-us-warns-ukraine-full-scale-russian-invasion-within-48-hours-1681798
 
Ukraine journalist @lapatina_ 9:36 ET on Wednesday: Ukraine is likely under another cyber attack – websites of MFA, Cabinet of Ministers, and the parliament are down.  Also – the parliament’s chairman Ruslan Stefanchuk said an hour ago that there were numerous attempts to break into his and his family’s email accounts, and block their bank cards, among “other” cyber attacks.
    Ukraine is under a massive DDoS cyber-attack, several government websites AND banks are targeted – Minister of Digital Transformation. (10:36 ET)
 
@netblocks: Confirmed: Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Security Service of Ukraine and Cabinet of Ministers websites have just been impacted by network disruptions; the incident appears consistent with recent DDOS attacks.
    Update: PrivatBank, the largest commercial bank in Ukraine and Oschadbank, the State Savings Bank of Ukraine, have again also been knocked out along with the defence and ministerial websites.
 
@toddstarnes: White House calls a lunch lid — at 9:45 a.m

Soybean and wheat futures hit 9-year highs yesterday.  Corn and live hogs soared in concert.
 
Oil and gasoline retreated on an afternoon report that the US might release oil from the SPR.

Biden’s Putin Appeasement Has Been Years in the Making
As VP, he mocked Russia hawks, treated Putin as a partner, and helped Russia join the WTO. Then came his presidency.  It was Biden who then spearheaded the effort to reward Moscow by giving Russia access to the World Trade Organization: He told nominal Russian president Dmitri Medvedev that Russia’s access to the WTO was “the most important item on our agenda.” At the time, a Reuters headline announced, “Biden backs Russia WTO bid, praises Medvedev.”…
    Biden also strengthened Putin’s hand by waiving Trump-era sanctions on a company building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia to Germany. Last year, Biden sent Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the Arctic Council for another shot at a “reset,” in which, as Bloomberg explained it, “Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin can reinvigorate U.S.-Russia relations that have been in a deep freeze for years.” Same approach, another bust… https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/02/bidens-putin-appeasement-has-been-years-in-the-making/
 
@CBSNews (Stooging for The Big Guy): The U.S. economy has been hit with increased gas prices, inflation, and supply-chain issues due to the Ukraine crisis.
 
@HerschelWalker: Does the media think we are stupid? Inflation has nothing to do with Ukraine and everything to do with President Biden’s policies. Is Ukraine also to blame for crime, the border, and the mandates??
 
GOP Sen. @TomCottonAR: Biden canceled the Keystone pipeline, banned drilling on federal land, and declared war on American energy production. We warned him this would raise costs for Americans and put our national security at risk. He didn’t listen.
 
CBS Earns Blistering Ratio for Trying to Blame US Inflation on Ukraine Situation
When legacy media outlets shill for an administration ahead of midterms, the propaganda is usually delivered in a semi-believable headline that doesn’t cause readers to immediately call bs… Not CBS…   That’s right – forget the last 6 months of Jen Psaki and President Biden pushing lies about ‘transitory’ price increases (blaming Covid and climate change, among other things). All you need to know, dear voter, is that Vladimir Putin is now to blame for the crippling inflation.  Nevermind the price of oil and CPI for the last 18 months… CBS’s tweet was widely mocked, and earned a blistering ‘ratio’ (when comments far outweigh ‘likes’ – suggesting a tweet is way off base)…
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/cbs-earns-blistering-ratio-trying-blame-us-inflation-ukraine-situation
 
@bespokeinvest: The Consumer Discretionary XLY sector hit the 20% bear market threshold today, down 20.66% from its 11/19/21 closing high.
 
@ElectionWiz: Despite the media-lead propaganda war over Ukraine, Democrats’ position going into the midterm elections has not improved. It’s gotten worse.
 
Gallup Poll: Just 36% Approve of Biden on Russia-Ukraine
https://www.newsmax.com/us/invasion-gallup-approval-ratings/2022/02/22/id/1057975/
 
AP Poll: Just 26% of Americans say US should play a major role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
 
New Yorkers souring on Biden, as poll shows his favorability under 50% in Empire State
Biden approval continues to plummet, even in deep blue New York
More than 9 in 10 voters say inflation is having at least a somewhat serious negative effect on the economy, 63% very serious, up from 49% very serious in December,”….
https://www.foxnews.com/us/new-yorkers-souring-on-biden-poll-shows-favorability-under-50-percent
 
Biden’s Fog Can’t Hide His Incompetence on Russia, Ukraine
Please don’t tell me that with all the urgent news spin and old generals rattling sabers on TV, with those maps like some Risk board game, you’ve forgotten what our president said a month ago?  He said that if Russia moved into Ukraine, it would be OK with him, if it were only “a minor incursion.”…
    Americans don’t much care what happens in Putin’s backyard. They care about increasing violent crime across America that you do little if anything about. You won’t even condemn the catch-and-release prosecutors fanning the rise of crime.  Americans do care about your inflationary policies that eat away at their paychecks. They care about how whether they’ll afford to get to work with the price of gas going up, after you killed off the American pipeline to satisfy the hard left.
    And Ukraine? Isn’t that where your son Hunter Biden scored big on business deals leveraged by you when you were Vice President? Yes, Ukraine. That Ukraine. Your son’s sandbox…
    First, it wasn’t an invasion. Then, No! Wait. It IS an invasion. Such confusing messaging does not inspire confidence… Adding to the fog is Vice President Kamala Harris. She brought her own fog machine—the one between her ears—to Munich to talk of Ukraine and Russia…
https://johnkassnews.com/fog-from-biden-cant-hide-his-epic-incompetence-on-russia-ukraine/
 
“It is time for us to do what we have been doing and that time is every day.” – VP Kamala Harris
 
@Breaking911: PELOSI: “It’s stunning to see in this day and age a tyrant roll into a country. This is the same tyrant who attacked our democracy in 2016.” https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1496547931821912064
 
@RNCResearch: Nancy Pelosi confuses Hungary and Ukraine: “If you look at the map and you see Hungary and you see how it is encircled…”  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1496537971474014213
 
@ChadPergram: A) Pelosi on sanctions for Russia: The president of the United States by executive order has the power to exercise the to impose the sanctions. The we understand this. We are not in this alone.   
B) Pelosi: [This is the beauty of it all, is that is a unified effort of our NATO allies…The Europeans feel the pain more than we do of sanctions. It is not without any collateral impact in their countries.
C) Pelosi: I think the president has full knowledge of what impact these sanctions will have and is fully ready to go all the way with it. And that’s something that we have done together.
 
Except for Pelosi’s odd endorsement, leading Dems are not praising The Big Guy’s Ukraine response.
 
@SkyNews: Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has told military personnel that Vladimir Putin has gone “full tonto” over Ukraine, adding that the British army ‘kicked the backside of Tsar Nicholas I in 1853 in Crimea’ and ‘can always do it again’. (Not a parody!  How do these idiots get positions of power?)
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1496519723487531008
 
More evidence Covid was tinkered with in a lab? Now scientists find virus contains tiny chunk of DNA that matches sequence patented by Moderna THREE YEARS before pandemic began
Researchers say one in 3trillion chance Covid developed the code naturally
   The patented sequence is part of a gene called MSH3 that is known to affect how damaged cells repair themselves in the body… In the latest twist, a study earlier this month found traces of Covid samples that contained genetical material from humans, hamsters and monkeys and may have predated the official pandemic timeline.   https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10542309/Fresh-lab-leak-fears-study-finds-genetic-code-Covids-spike-protein-linked-Moderna-patent.html

Wednesday night, ESHs vacillated between small gains and losses until this appeared: US Secretary of State Blinken Expects Russia Will Invade Ukraine Before the Night Is Through – NBC
 
Reuters: Russia has partially closed airspace in the Rostov flight information region to the east of its border with Ukraine “in order to provide safety” for civil aviation flights. A notice to airmen listed specific route segments and altitudes to be avoided.
 
Reports have Eastern Ukraine airports blocking runways with tractors to prevent invading forces from landing.  ESHs are -30.00 at 20:05 ET.
 
Expected Economic Data: Q4 GDP 7%, Consumption 3.4%, GDP Price Index 69%, Core PCE 4.9%; Initial Jobless Claims 235k, Continuing Claims 1.58m; Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index 0.16; Jan New Home Sales 803k; Feb KC Fed Mfg Activity 25; Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 9 ET, Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic 11:10 ET, Cleveland Fed Pres Mester (Hawk) 12:00 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4571; 100-day MA: 4572; 150-day MA: 4529; 200-day MA: 4458
DJIA 50-day MA: 35,374; 100-day MA: 35,394; 150-day MA: 35,255; 200-day MA 35,036
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4153.02 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4634.27 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD negative – a close above 4479.91 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4302.58 triggers a buy signal
 
Let’s Hope the Special Counsel (And Others) Are Investigating the People Who Watch You Online
A revelation buried in a cache of documents opens a new and potentially important investigative corridor for Special Counsel John Durham.
    So where did Joffe’s group get access to the data it had reviewed? And what was the community this group was part of that has “unusual access” to the D.N.S. lookup data of “private companies, public institutions, and universities”? A random email, forwarded by Joffe to Georgia Tech’s Antonakakis, provides a possible answer: Ops-Trust.
    Ops-Trust is a self-described “highly vetted community of security professionals focused on the operational robustness, integrity, and security of the Internet,” that “promotes responsible action against malicious behavior beyond just observation, analysis and research.”…
    Tech giants and the bloated government bureaucracy hold enormous amounts of private data and, as Ops-Trust brags, it has “a mature data sharing capability.” So what data is being shared? How is it being used? By whom? And for what purpose?…
https://thefederalist.com/2022/02/23/lets-hope-the-special-counsel-and-others-are-investigating-the-people-who-watch-you-online/
 
2 Prosecutors Leading N.Y. Trump Inquiry Resign, Clouding Case’s Future
The prosecutors had abruptly stopped presenting evidence to a grand jury in the high-stakes criminal investigation into the former president’s business practices.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/nyregion/trump-ny-fraud-investigation.html

END

end

Well that is all for today. I will see you FRIDAY night