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comex notices/

March: JPMorgan stopped/total issued 2/3

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,908.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/16/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 03/18/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1
661 C JP MORGAN 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 3

TOTAL: 3 3
MONTH TO DATE: 10,657

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR Mar. CONTRACT 3 NOTICE(S) FOR 300 OZ (0.00933 TONNES)

total notices so far: 10,657 contracts for 1,065,700 oz (33.148 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

64 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 320,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 10,437 : for 52,185,000 oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $33.50

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 11.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.44 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.72

AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 3.049 MILLION OZ

INTO THE SLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 548.071 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2515 CONTRACTS TO 157,056 ON DAY 6 OF OUR CONTINUAL RAID,(AND LAST) AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG $0.56 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.56) AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT SOME SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 920 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 42.860 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 220,000 OZ //NEW STANDING 52.480 MILLION OZ // V) GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS : —155

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR:

TOTAL CONTACTS for 13 days, total contracts: : 27,228 contracts or 136.140 million oz OR 10.469 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (2094 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 27,288 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 136.14 MILLION OZ

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 136.140 MILLION OZ//THIS IS GOING TO BE A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE MONTH AND MOST LIKELY WILL SET A RECORD FOR ANY MONTH

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2360 WITH OUR $0.56 LOSS SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1440 CONTRACTS( 1440 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR. OF 42.860 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 220,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 52.255 MILLION OZ// /// .. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 64 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 0.320 MILLION OZ DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE.

WE HAD 64 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 320,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 3715 CONTRACTS TO 613,890 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: –155 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

THE GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $18.50//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR HUMONGOUS SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MARCH AT 14.818 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2400 OZ//NEW STANDING 36.189 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $18.50 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD AN SMALL GAIN OF 1685 OI CONTRACTS (5.241 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 5400 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 613,890.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1685, WITH 3715 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5400 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1840 CONTRACTS OR 5.723 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5,400) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (3715,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 1685 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MARCH. AT 14.818 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 2400 OZ//NEW STANDING 36.189 TONNES /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ///. ,4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OI LOSS 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THE GOLD COMEX IS ALSO BEING ATTACKED FOR GOLD METAL FROM LONDON ET AL.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

MARCH

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :

93,312 CONTRACTS OR 9,331,200 OR 290.23 TONNES 13 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 718 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 290.23TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 290.23/3550 x 100% TONNES 8.17% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 290.23 TONNES INITIAL( THIS WILL PROBABLY BE A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE MONTH. LATER THIS MONTH WE WILL SURPASS NOV 21, THE ALL TIME RECORD MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2515 CONTRACTS TO 157,211 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 4 1/2 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 1440 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 1440 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1440 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2515 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1440 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1075 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5/375 MILLION OZ,

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.56 LOSS IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 44.33 PTS OR 1.40% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 1413.73 PTS OR 7.04 % /The Nikkei closed UP 890.88 PTS or 3.46% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.15% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.3498 /Oil UP TO 100.56 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 103.76 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED EXCEPT LONDON // ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3498. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3641: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER/

A)NORTH KOREA/

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 3715 CONTRACTS TO 613,890 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS OF $18.50 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP (5400 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 5400 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , & FEB. 0 APRIL:5400 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5400 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 1685 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5400 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 3715 CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $18.50.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR (36.189),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.189 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $18.50) BUT THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAVE REGISTERED A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 5.241 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR (36.189 TONNES)…

WE HAD –155 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1685 CONTRACTS OR 168,500 OZ OR 5.241 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 171,692 ///poor

Confirmed volume yesterday: 242,225 contracts fair

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAR ’22 COMEX GOLD //MARCH 17

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	619.850 oz Int Delaware (10 kilobars)and HSBC
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	16,101.610OZ Brinks dealer
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	178,502.352 oz JPMorgan 5000 kilobars and Loomis 552 kilobars
No of oz served (contracts) today	3 notice(s)300 OZ 0.00933 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	978 contracts 97,800 oz 3.0419 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	10,657 notices 1,065,700 OZ 33.147 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

For today:

1)dealer deposit

i) Into Brinks: 16,101.610 oz

total dealer deposit 16101.610 oz

No dealer withdrawal 0

2 customer deposits

i) Into JPMORGAN: 160,755.000 OZ (5,000 KILOBARS= 5 TONNES)

ii) Into Loomis: 17,747.352 oz (552 kilobars)

total deposit: 178,502.352 oz

2 customer withdrawal

i) Out of Int Delaware: 321.510 oz 10 kilobars

ii) out of HSBC: 298.340 oz

total withdrawals: 619.850 oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH.

For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 1981 contracts having LOST 313

We had 337 notices filed yesterday so strangely again on day 13 we gained another queue jump i.e. 24 contracts or an additional 2400 oz will stand for delivery and these guys refused again to be EFP’d over to London. They must

be after large amounts of gold on this side of the pond after Russia cannot//will not supply any precious metals to London. The 2400 oz is represented by 0.0746 tonnes,

April saw a loss of 19,427 contracts down to 254,908.

May saw a LOSS of 14 contracts to stand at 4238

June saw a GAIN of 14,669 contracts up to 286,364 contracts

We had 3 notice(s) filed today for 300 oz FOR THE MAR 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 33 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 5 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR /2021. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,657) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (MAR: 981 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 3 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,163,500 OZ OR 36.189 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of mar.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:

No of notices filed so far (10,657) x 100 oz+ (981) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (3} x 100 oz} which equals 1,163,500 oz standing OR 36.189 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of MAR.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 36.189 TONNES (A WHOPPER FOR A MAR (NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

191,133,764.7, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

123,963.792 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.86 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

243,923.704, oz JPM No 2 7.58 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged Brinks/27,96 TONNES

12,249,333 oz International Delaware: 0..3810 tonnes

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold: 1,543,044.471 oz 47.99 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIG GOLD AT THE COMEX: 33,805,436.886 OZ (1051.91TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 16,219,622.847 OZ (504.48 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,585,814.039 OZ (546.97 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 16,042,770.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 498.99 tonnes

END

MAR 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//MARCH 17

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1022,980.136 oz Delaware HSBC Int.Delaware JPMorgan
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	600,576.304 oz CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)	64CONTRACT(S) 320,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	59 contracts (295,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	10,437 contracts 52, 185,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

i)Into CNT: 600,576.304 oz

total deposit: 600,576.304 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 180.228 million oz/342.981 million =52.54% of comex

ii) Comex withdrawals: 4

A) Out of JPMorgan 897,579.920 oz

B) Out of HSBC: 35,116.75 oz

C) out of Int Delaware 43,753.800 oz

d) Out of Delaware: 46,529.658 oz

total withdrawal 1022,980.136 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 93.406 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 342.981 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MARCH

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MARCH OI: 123, HAVING GAINED 38 CONTRACTS FROM MONDAY.

WE HAD 6 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY, SO WE GAINED 44 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 220,000 OZ WILL STAND

FOR DELIVERY OVER HERE AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO BE EFP’D TO LONDON.

APRIL HAD A 1 CONTRACT GAIN// CONTRACTS RISING TO 616

MAY HAD A LOSS OF 2754 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 119,189 contracts

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 64 for 320,000 oz

Comex volumes: 37,479// est. volume today//weak/

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 49,749 contracts (FAIR )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 10,437 x 5,000 oz = 52,185,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR (123) and the number of notices served upon today 64 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the MAR./2021 contract month: 10,437 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR (123) – number of notices served upon today (64) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month equates 52,255,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $33.50: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.61 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.44 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.50//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALL OF 2.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.83 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.16 TONNES

MARCH 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $22.75, HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//STRANGE: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.16 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.54 TONNES

MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.55: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.06 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.28 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.85//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.64 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.34 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $46.10: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 8.42 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.70 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.28 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.22 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.95: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.84 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.22 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80//A MONSTER CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.38 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $42.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD UP $17.35//A HUGE CHANGE AT THE GLD: 5.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD// IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $6.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD UP $29.50: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP 414.60 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.70 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $27.20 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.50 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD IVNETORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.48 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1074.44 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MARCH 17/ WITH SILVER UP 72 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.049 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLVV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 548.071 MILLION OZ

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 56 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 462,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.560 MLLION O

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.022 MILLION OZ

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY; STRANGE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.125 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.022 MILLIONOZ

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.174 MILLION OZ OF FAKE SILVER.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 88 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.217 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS A 548.071 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.32 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 198,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP $1.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.052 MILLION OZ//

FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 546.052 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.510 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.052 MILLION OZ/

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ

FEB 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 350,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.017 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.227 MILLION OZ

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.402 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.210 MILLION OZ/

FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLIONOZ

FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ//

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.235 MILLION OZ INTO THES LV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ///

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 548.071 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: The Most-Anticipated And Least-Significant Rate-Hike Ever

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 11:52 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its March meeting, delivering a 25 basis-point interest rate hike in the face of a 7.9% CPI. Peter Schiff called it the most anticipated and probably the most meaningless rate hike in history.

There was some speculation that the central bank would lift off with a 50 basis-point hike before Russia invaded Ukraine. But Peter said even that would have been too little, too late to derail this juggernaut of inflation.

Nevertheless, the Fed’s move was the first salvo in its war on inflation. And while it looks to be a feckless inflation fight, Peter said he thinks the rate hikes that are coming will do more damage to the economy than most people realize. The Fed projects up to six more hikes this year, taking interest rates to just below 2%. (Still not terribly significant in light of historically high inflation.)

The bond market appears to be correctly pricing in a recession. But Peter said bond buyers are still missing the boat.

I agree that bond investors are correct; a recession is coming. But where bond investors are missing the mark is to believe that the arrival of recession means a departure of inflation.”

Peter said he thinks recession is going to exacerbate the inflation problem. That puts the Federal Reserve in a difficult position.

As the US economy weakens, that’s going to put more upward pressure on the budget deficit. The government is going to collect less in the way of taxes. It’s going to be spending more as these stabilizers kick in as the economy weakens. So, the deficits are going to be getting bigger, which so going to be putting more pressure on the US dollar to go down. And as the US dollar really starts to fall, that’s going to be putting more upward pressure on prices.”

If you consider the massive increase in the money supply compared to the rise in prices so far, there’s a long way for prices to run upward.

And there is nothing that the Fed did during its March meeting to alter that trajectory.

Just because the Fed is hiking rates because of inflation doesn’t mean these rate hikes are actually going to work at putting out the inflation fire. They’re not. The Fed is simply doing the minimum that it can get away with and try to save face.”

The Fed’s messaging was widely regarded as “hawkish” with Fed chair Jerome Powell projected firm resolve to stick to the rate hike path. But Peter picked up on something in the Fed minutes most people didn’t seem to notice. The FOMC took out language relating to the start of balance sheet reduction. It now just says it will happen sometime in the future.

The most important thing to me is quantitative tightening is happening later than the Fed initially postured. And it may never happen. That’s kind of my thought. They can raise interest rates slightly, because, on the margin, the first few rate hikes won’t have much of an impact. But I think given the enormity of the federal government deficits, I don’t see how the Federal Reserve is able to shrink its balance sheet. In fact, I think the Fed is going to have to continue to increase the size of its balance sheet even as it notches up interest rates.”

During the post-meeting press conference, Powell took several questions relating to the possibility that monetary tightening will cause a recession. Powell insisted the economy is strong enough to handle the rate hikes coming down the pike.

Maybe it can. Maybe it can’t. The Fed’s been wrong about a lot of stuff in the past. Most recently, it was wrong about inflation being transitory. So, maybe it’s wrong about the ability of the economy to withstand these rate hikes.”

Keep in mind, the US economy is a credit bubble. It hinges on the ability of over-leveraged consumers, businesses and governments to keep on spending borrowed money.

So, obviously, there is a breaking point there when it comes to interest rates. You live by low interest rates; you die by high interest rates. The only question is when are low interest rates no longer low enough and then they become high? We’re only going to find out when get there.”

This isn’t uncharted territory. In the last tightening cycle, we got there at 2.5%. Peter said he thinks the breaking point is much lower than that today given the increase in debt in the economy.

The Fed clearly doesn’t even understand that the economy is a bubble. Or if it does, it sure as hell is not going to admit that to anybody.”

In this podcast, Peter also talks about Elizabeth Warren’s refusal to take the blame for inflation, the gold market’s reaction to rate hikes, a pay raise for congressional staffers, and more on Powell’s post-meeting Q&A.

END

A must read..

Michael Maharrey/SchiffGold

A Petroyuan Would Be A Kick In The Gut For The Dollar

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 01:20 PM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

Last week, I asked the question: is the US undermining the dollar’s credibility?

It appears the answer is — yes.

In another blow for dollar dominance, Saudi Arabia is reportedly considering pricing at least some of its Chinese oil sales in yuan.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the move would “dent the US dollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia.”

The “petrodollar” serves as a crucial support for the US dollar.

The majority of global oil sales are priced in dollars. This ensures a constant demand for the greenback. Every country needs dollars to buy oil. This helps support the US government’s borrow and spend policy with its massive deficits. As long as the world needs dollars for oil, the Federal Reserve can keep printing dollars to monetize the debt.

ZeroHedge explained how the process works.

One of the core staples of the past 40 years, and an anchor propping up the dollar’s reserve status, was a global financial system based on the petrodollar – this was a world in which oil producers would sell their product to the US (and the rest of the world) for dollars, which they would then recycle the proceeds in dollar-denominated assets and while investing in dollar-denominated markets, explicitly prop up the USD as the world reserve currency, and in the process backstop the standing of the US as the world’s undisputed financial superpower.”

Saudi Arabia has sold oil exclusively for dollars since 1974 under a deal with the Nixon administration. If the Saudis shift away from the dollar and sell oil for yuan, it would be bad news for dollar dominance. And good news for the Chinese currency.

According to the WSJ, China buys more than 25% of Saudi oil exports.

If priced in yuan, those sales would boost the standing of China’s currency. The Saudis are also considering including yuan-denominated futures contracts, known as the petroyuan, in the pricing model of Saudi Arabian Oil Co., known as Aramco.”

China and Saudi Arabia have been talking about yuan-based oil contracts for six years. But Saudi Arabia’s frustration with the US has apparently accelerated those talks. According to the WSJ, the Saudi government is increasingly unhappy with decades-old US security commitments to defend the kingdom along with the Biden administration’s attempt to reinstitute the Iran nuclear deal.

The Chinese rolled out yuan-based oil contracts in 2018. They have been modestly successful, but haven’t dented the dollar’s dominance. If Saudi Arabia begins doing business in yuan, it would be a kick in the gut for the dollar.

And it would be a boon for China. The Chinese would love to limit their exposure to the dollar.

Needless to say, US officials are not pleased with this development. A senior US official called the idea of the Saudis selling oil to China in yuan “highly volatile and aggressive” and “not very likely.”

Calling the move “aggressive” is ironic given how the US has used the dollar as a weapon for decades.

But this could be nothing but talk. Selling oil in yuan would come with some risks to the Saudi economy. The Saudi riyal is pegged to the dollar. Prince Mohammed’s aides have reportedly warned him of unpredictable economic damage should the country hastily start selling millions of barrels of oil for yuan.

Regardless, it’s no surprise that the Chinese and Saudis have ramped up talks in recent weeks. The weaponization of the dollar has been on full display.

After Russia invaded Ukraine, the US cut some Russian banks, including the central bank, off from the SWIFT payment system.

SWIFT stands for the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. The system enables financial institutions to send and receive information about financial transactions in a secure, standardized environment. Since the dollar serves as the world reserve currency, SWIFT facilitates the international dollar system.

SWIFT and dollar dominance gives the US a great deal of leverage over other countries.

But that leverage depends on the dollar’s role as the reserve currency. It shouldn’t shock us that we’re seeing blowback from the US using greenbacks as a foreign policy carrot and stick.

A drop in the demand for dollars would be bad news for a US government that depends on dollar demand to fund its out-of-control spending. Imagine a world in which the Chinese didn’t need dollars.

China ranks as the biggest foreign holder of US debt. If it continues to divest itself of dollars, who will pick up the slack? The Federal Reserve has been buying Treasuries hand over fist for the last two years, keeping its big fat thumb on the bond market. But it’s tapering purchases and supposedly planning on shrinking its balance sheet. If global demand for Treasuries drop precipitously — and it would in a world without the petrodollar — the US government would either have to drastically cut spending or the Fed would have to continue printing money to monetize the debt.

Even if this is nothing but talk, it underscores the fact that the dollar is on shaky ground. US policymakers would be wise to consider future dollar weaponization carefully.

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James RICKARDS/

-END-

LAWRIE WILLIAMS:

-END-

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

LME shoots itself in the foot again as they halt trading in nickel within seconds of opening after a one week layoff.

Shanghai now becomes the de facto centre for price discovery.

(London’s Financial Times/GATA)

LME failure with nickel puts Shanghai in charge of price discovery, trader says

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-03-16 12:44Section: Daily Dispatches

London Metal Exchange Suffers Fresh Glitch as It Attempts to Restart Nickel Trading

Neil Hume and Philip Stafford
Financial Times, London
Wednesday, March 16, 2022

The London Metal Exchange suspended electronic trading in nickel on Wednesday, just moments after the world’s main market for the metal reopened for business following a week-long shutdown.

Wednesday’s fresh trading halt came after the price of nickel tumbled when the market opened. Newly installed curbs to support the resumption were meant to prevent the price from declining by more than 5%, but some trades appeared to have breached the limit of $45,590 a tonne, according to Refinitiv data.

The LME said it would halt electronic trading to “investigate” the issue, but that it would still allow in-person dealings later in the day around the famous red sofas on its Ring venue, and also through an inter-office telephone exchange between members.

“The scale of sell orders illustrative of the mood in the market — longs just want to get out of a market that has become and is likely to remain dysfunctional,” said traders at Marex. …

Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, said Wednesday’s trading halt was a “desperately sad situation” for the LME, which prides itself on being the leading global marketplace for metals trading.

“The limit was too small,” he said. “Shanghai is the de-facto centre for price discovery right now.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/6a640cd5-3d9b-421d-bc71-8e4d0f2f9522

END

USA mint gives up production in 1922 for silver Morgan and peace dollars

(USA Mint/GATA)

U.S. Mint suspends production of two silver coins, claims blanks aren’t available

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-03-16 23:45Section: Daily Dispatches

The virus epidemic supposedly is responsible. But the Comex claims to have plenty of metal, so why not just pay up to get it?

* * *

United States Mint Announces Pause in Production and Sales of Morgan and Peace Dollars for 2022

From the United States Mint, Washington
Monday, March 14, 2022

https://www.usmint.gov/news/press-releases/united-states-mint-announces-pause-in-production-and-sales-of-morgan-and-peace-dollars-for-2022-popular-historic-program-will-return-in-2023

The United States Mint today announced it will forgo the production and sales of Morgan and Peace Silver Dollars in 2022. This calculated pause is directly related to the global pandemic’s impact upon the availability of silver blanks from the Mint’s suppliers.

The suspension will give the Mint time to evaluate the best way to allocate our limited supply of silver to ensure the best customer experience we can

“We’ll be required to make business decisions like this until the supply chain for silver blanks recovers from the disruptions caused by COVID-19,” said Mint Deputy Director Ventris C. Gibson.

“I want to ensure that our customers know,” she said, “that the modern renditions of the historic Morgan and Peace Silver Dollars will continue next year. Our goal is straightforward: to give our loyal customers the products they want and the service they deserve.”

* * *

END

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

Gold at $10,000? Death of the 40-year bull market in bonds? What’s next for the global financial system after Russia’s central bank gets cancelled

March 17, 2022 at 6:24 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

Critical information for the U.S. trading day

The shockwaves are still being felt by the incredible Western sanctions that have rendered the $630 billion in reserves the Russian central bank accumulated virtually unusable. Can the current dollar-centered global financial system last if money can be summarily cancelled?

Arthur Hayes, a former emerging markets trader and co- founder of the BitMEX trading platform, argues central banks will choose, instead of dollars, to load up on either gold, storable grains like wheat, or storable commodities like oil and copper. “In essence, the largest surplus countries’ fiat currencies will implicitly grow their gold or commodity backing,” he writes, saying gold could rise beyond $10,000 per ounce.

Luke Gromen, publisher of Forest For The Trees and a long-time dollar bear, said that shift had been happening even before the sanctions. In a podcast with Grant Williams, Gromen said that over the last eight years, global central banks have bought about $260 billion worth of gold, compared to $60 billion in Treasurys. “So there’s been this very slow, but steady and recently accelerating move toward the away from this dollar system that broke in 2005, through 2008 to this system that looks a lot like what was proposed by [John Maynard] Keynes 80 years ago,” he says.

The dollar-centered system has some disadvantages for the U.S. “The issue with this is the American version of this deal that we’re printing dollars for oil as we have since ‘73 is, and this is the downside of the deal, is you got to run the deficits to supply the dollars to the world,” he said. “Which means you got to offshore all the manufacturing. You got to offshore all the manufacturing jobs. You got to run a bunch of deficits at the government level. You got to do all these things that are really, really good for GDP growth and the economy in the short and medium term. And in the long run, they bankrupt you.”

Gromen, like Hayes, expects more gold accumulation. “So every central bank in the world is now looking at this thinking, okay, we need to not be in a position where that can happen to us. Because who knows what might happen in the future and what might get us deemed a bad actor. So presumably they are going to be looking to accumulate a lot more gold,” he said.

(It should be noted that gold has its perils for foreign central banks. In Russia’s case in particular, the central bank won’t be able to sell to any western entity directly, and bipartisan legislation introduced in the U.S. Senate would impose secondary sanctions to any American entities knowingly transacting with or transporting gold from Russia.)

Gromen expects the end of the 40-year bull market in bonds. And he sees the potential for re-industrialization. “When you see Ohio getting an Intel INTC, -0.83% fab and the CEO of Intel saying, ‘We’re going to make Ohio one of the biggest Intel manufacturing regions in the world.’ What? Ohio was ground zero of the people who took it in the shorts from 1973 to present under this deal. Another semi fab in Arizona, another semi fab in Texas,” says Gromen. “It’s not even the first inning in this reindustrialization of America, but reindustrialization was never going to happen until you changed this dollar system and removed treasuries as the primary reserve asset, replaced it with a neutral one. And here we are. We’re two weeks into it. It’s incredibly exciting.”

The buzz

Initial jobless claims fell to 214,000, the latest data show, as both housing starts and the latest Philly Fed manufacturing index improved. The Bank of England made its third rate since December, a day after the Federal Reserve made a quarter-point increase and pencilled in 11 increases over two years.

There weren’t any major developments in the Russia- Ukraine situation as of Thursday morning. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke to Germany’s parliament and criticized its support for the now-halted Nord Stream 2 pipeline project.

Special thanks to Doug C for sending this to us;

U.S. Mint announces silver shortage… – CITIZEN FREE PRESS

Inbox

https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/u-s-mint-announces-silver-shortage/

U.S. Mint announces silver shortage…

The United States Mint will not strike 2022 Morgan or Peace dollars, with Mint officials identifying silver planchet shortages as the reason for the cancellation of the planned coins.

WASHINGTON – The United States Mint today announced it will forgo the production and sales of Morgan and Peace Silver Dollars in 2022. This calculated pause is directly related to the global pandemic’s impact upon the availability of silver blanks from the Mint’s suppliers. The suspension will give the Mint time to evaluate the best way to allocate our limited supply of silver to ensure the best customer experience we can.

“We’ll be required to make business decisions like this until the supply chain for silver blanks recovers from the disruptions caused by COVID,” said Mint Deputy Director Ventris C. Gibson.

“I want to be ensure that our customers know,” she said, “that the modern renditions of the historic Morgan and Peace Silver Dollars will continue next year. Our goal is straightforward: to give our loyal customers the products they want and the service they deserve.”

SOURCE — U.S. MINT

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES/

end

NICKEL UPDATE

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING TODAY

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.3498

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3641

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 1413.73 PTS OR 7.04%

2. Nikkei closed UP 890.88 PTS 3.46%

3. Europe stocks ALL RED EXCEPT LONDON

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 98.21/Euro RISES TO 1.1052

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.204/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 118.61/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 100.56 and Brent: 103.76

3f Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: ON -SHORE CLOSED UP// OFF- SHORE UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.0.389%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 1.92% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 1.35%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.63: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.64

3k Gold at $1941.80 silver at: 25.24 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 4.00/100 in roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 104.00

3m oil into the 100 dollar handle for WTI and 103 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 118.61 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9389– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0387 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.143 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.400 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.80

Futures Drift Lower After Kremlin Dashes Ukraine Peace Hopes; Curve Inversion Persists

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 07:58 AM

After yesterday’s explosive session, which saw stocks trade in violent kneejerk response to conflicting headlines out of Ukraine at first, only to post the biggest ever post FOMC reversal, as markets realized that the Fed’s overly hawkish ambitions are too great and doom the rapidly slowing economy to an accelerated recession, overnight trading has been positively subdued with emini S&P futs trading in a tight 20 point range between 4,340 and 4,360 until 6 am ET, when European stocks turned negative and US equity futures suddenly dropped as much as 0.5%, after the Kremlin said reports of major progress in Ukraine talks are “wrong” and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed reports that the warring parties are moving toward a settlement, blaming Kyiv for slowing the negotiations, crippling any hope for a quick ceasefire deal and adding to worries about the outlook for economic growth as the Federal Reserve’s campaign against inflation gets underway. Futures were already wavering as the bond market flagged a growing risk that the Fed’s efforts to rein in prices could trigger an economic downturn with the 5s10s curve inverting. Ominously, Brent jumped more than $5/bbl after tumbling below $100 yesterday.

Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 dipped 0.4% by 7:30 a.m. in New York, while S&P 500 futures were 0.34% lower. The benchmark S&P 500 on Wednesday posted its best two-day rally since April 2020 as the Fed hiked interest rates by a quarter point and Chair Jerome Powell signaled the economy could weather tighter monetary policy. Gold and 10Y yields dropped to session lows, and bitcoin was modestly lower on the session. Europe was slightly green while Asia stocks closed higher, led by the Hang Seng which rose 7%

On Wednesday, the Fed raised borrowing costs by a quarter percentage point and signaled hikes at all six remaining meetings in 2022, while projecting an “above-normal” policy rate at 2.8% by the end of 2023. Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. economy is “very strong” and can handle monetary tightening. Treasuries advanced, while a portion of the bond curve – the gap between 5- and 10-year yields – inverted for the first time since March 2020, a sign investors expect recession.

The Fed also said it would begin shrinking its $8.9 trillion balance sheet at a “coming meeting,” without elaborating as Biden breathes down Powell’s neck to get inflation under control. Meanwhile, the commodity shock from Russia’s war in Ukraine is continuing to aggravate price pressures and economic risks, portending more market volatility.

“It won’t be easy — rarely has the Fed safely landed the U.S. economy from such inflation heights without triggering an economic crash,” Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors, said in emailed comments. “Furthermore, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, of course, has the potential to disrupt the Fed’s path. But for now, the Fed’s priority has to be price stability.”

“This type of normalization policy does not always end well,” said Nicolas Forest, global head of fixed income at Candriam Belgium SA. “While the Fed began its tightening cycle later than usual, at a time when inflation has never been so high, financial conditions could also harden, making the 2.80% target ambitious in our view. In this context, it is easy to understand why the U.S. curve has flattened.”

In the latest Ukraine war developments, Russia continued to “hammer” cities like Kharkiv and Cherniyiv with bombardments and rocket systems and isn’t acting like it wants to settle, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. Meanwhile, Russia’s Finance Ministry said a $117 million interest payment due on two dollar bonds had been made to Citibank in London amid mounting speculation that the country is heading for a default. Russia had until the end of business Wednesday to honor the coupons on the two notes. The ruble gained for a sixth day in Moscow trading, while the country’s stock market remains shut. Here are some more headlines courtesy of Newsquawk:

Ukrainian President Zelensky said talks with Russia are challenging but are still ongoing. He added that Russia has the advantage in the air and already crossed all red lines, while he hopes for assistance from allies.
Russian Foreign Minister says that discussions with Ukraine are continuing via video link with the sides discussing humanitarian and political issues.
Ukrainian Defense Minister says so far there is nothing to satisfy us in negotiations with Russia; a peaceful solution can be reached with Russia, but “on our terms”.
Russian Kremlin says their delegation is putting colossal energy into Ukraine peace talks, conditions are absolutely clear. Agreement with Ukraine with clear parameters could very fast stop what is going on; on the recent FT report re. peace talk progress said this is not right, elements are correct but the entire peace is not true.

A rebound in China stocks listed on U.S. exchanges also cooled a day after they soared the most since at least 2001 on a pledge from Beijing to keep its stock market stable. American depository receipts of Alibaba were down 2% in premarket trading following their biggest gain since their trading debut in September 2014, while Baidu dropped 5.7%. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Shares in Marrone Bio (MBII US) jumped 20% premarket after announcing a merger pact with Bioceres Crop Solutions (BIOX US), which falls 5.9%.
Williams-Sonoma (WSM US) gained 6.2% in extended trading Wednesday after the home-goods retailer reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings that beat the average analyst estimate. The company also raised its dividend and announced a share buyback authorization.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index gained, nearly erasing losses that were sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The index then dipped on the abovementioned news out of the Kremlin which said reports of major progress in Ukraine talks are “wrong”, only to bounce back into the green. DAX and FTSE MIB lag, slipping ~1%. Banks, autos and personal care are the worst performing sectors. Energy, real estate and tech outperform. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

Deliveroo shares rise as much as 9.8% after reporting full-year results, with Barclays (equal-weight) saying the food-delivery company’s mid-term margin commentary was “helpful.”
Grenke shares jump 16%, the most since May, after the company reported dividend per share that beat the average analyst estimate.
EQT shares rise as much as 9.5%, extending Wednesday’s 12% gain following the acquisition of Baring Private Equity Asia for $7.5 billion in what is the biggest takeover of a private equity firm by another in the sector.
Atos shares jump as much as 7.4% after BFM Business reported that Airbus has been mulling a possible takeover of the French IT firm’s cybersecurity unit. Atos reiterated that its BDS cybersecurity business is not for sale.
DiaSorin shares soar as much as 9.7%, their best day in nearly one year as analysts upgraded the Italian diagnostics company following results, with the firm reporting net income for the full year that beat the average analyst estimate.
Verbund shares rise as much as 7.7% after 2021 profit beats estimates and Austria’s biggest utility forecasts higher profit next year.
Thyssenkrupp shares fall as much as 11% after the company suspended its full-year forecast for free cash flow. The move is a disappointment, given the FCF focus in the steel company’s equity story after years of cash burn, Deutsche Bank says.

Asian stocks extended their rebound through a second day after Chinese shares rallied again on a vow of state support and the Federal Reserve expressed confidence in the U.S. economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rallied as much as 3.6%, lifted by technology and consumer-discretionary shares. Japan and Hong Kong benchmarks led the way, with the Hang Seng Index surging 17% over two days, its biggest back-to-back advance since the Asian financial crisis in 1998, and the Topix jumping 2.5%. A combination of China’s pledge to stabilize markets, Fed comments on the U.S. economy’s strength after the expected quarter-point interest rate hike by the central bank, and hopes for progress on Russia-Ukraine talks have put Asian stocks on track to end four consecutive weekly losses. “Following recent corrections, markets have reached a point that prices in, or presumes, a fair amount of rate hikes and economic stress,” said Ellen Gaske, lead economist for G-10 economies at PGIM Fixed Income. “It would not be surprising to see investors begin to inch back into the market in search of yield.”

Japanese equities rose for a fourth day, as investors were cheered by comments from the Federal Reserve on U.S. economic growth and China’s moves to support its market. Electronics and machinery makers were the biggest boosts to the Topix, which rose 2.5%, to the highest level since Feb. 21. All 33 industry groups advanced. Fast Retailing and Tokyo Electron were the biggest contributors to a 3.5% rise in the Nikkei 225. The yen extended its losses against the dollar after weakening 3.4% over the previous eight sessions. The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point and signaled hikes at all six remaining meetings this year, while saying “the American economy is very strong” and able to handle tighter policy. Global stocks got a lift Wednesday after Beijing vowed to keep its stock market stable. “The FOMC dot plot clearly shows that the number of interest rate hikes will be reasonable, and the stock market is pleased that the risk of accelerating long-term interest rates rising due to monetary policy following has decreased,” said Kazuharu Konishi, head of equities at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management. In domestic news, a magnitude-7.3 earthquake struck near Fukushima prefecture late Wednesday, killing four and injuring dozens of people, as well as derailing a bullet train and disrupting power

India’s benchmark stocks index rose, tracking regional peers, as lenders drove gains. The S&P BSE Sensex climbed 1.8% to 57,863.93, in Mumbai. The measure added 4.2% this week, and with local markets closed for a holiday Friday, it is the biggest weekly advance for the index since February 2021. With today’s gains, it completely recovered all losses that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Mortgage lender Housing Development Finance Corp. rose 5.4%, its biggest jump in over a year and was the best performer on the Sensex, which saw all but two of 30 shares advance. Seventeen of 19 sectoral sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. gained, led by a gauge of realty companies. The NSE Nifty 50 Index added 1.8% to 17,287.05 on Thursday. China’s pledge to support its markets, the prospect of progress on Russia-Ukraine cease-fire talks and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s comments on America’s economic strength boosted sentiment. Brent crude, a major import for India, down to $100 a barrel from $127.98 last week, also eased concerns. The Fed announcement was on expected lines for the market and they rallied in relief, Nishit Master, portfolio manager at Axis Securities wrote in a note. “Despite the recent rally, the markets will continue to remain volatile in the near future on the back of tightening of liquidity conditions globally. One should use this volatility to increase equity allocation for the long term.”

In rates, the post-Fed flattening move has extended as investors continue to digest expectations on latest policy path, with some strategists calling for a top in yields. 10-year yields around 2.12%, richer by ~6bp on the day and outperforming bunds and gilts by 4.5bp and 3bp; 2s10s spread is flatter by ~4bp on the day. US TSY yields are richer by as much as 7bp across long-end of the curve, flattening 5s30s by a further 2.4bp with the spread dropping as low as 24.2bp; the 5s10s was again inverted, trading fractionally in the red after first inverting yesterday during Powell’s FOMC presser.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index pared a loss and the greenback traded mixed after earlier sliding against all of its Group- of-10 peers apart from the Swedish krona, as risk aversion gave rise to a haven bid. The euro snapped a three- day advance after the news out of Kremlin dampened sentiment; short-dated European benchmark bond yields were little changed while they contracted longer out on the curve. The pound advanced and gilts rose, led by the long end before the Bank of England looks all but certain to take interest rates back to their pre- Covid level. The Australian dollar still outperformed G-10 peers after the nation’s February unemployment rate falls to the lowest since 2008, boosting bets of earlier interest-rate hikes. The yen inched up amid risk aversion, but still held near its lowest level in six years as Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda vowed to continue with monetary stimulus even after the Federal Reserve kicked of its rate hike cycle Wednesday.

In commodities, WTI crude futures climb near $99.50 while Brent rallies through $102; spot gold adds ~$16 to trade around $1,944. Base metals are mixed; LME nickel falls 8% to maximum limit while LME aluminum gains 1.8%. Bitcoin is modestly softer but remains well within yesterday’s parameters and retains a USD 40k handle.

Looking at the day ahead now and housing starts, building permits, initial jobless claims and industrial production are due. We will also hear from ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, Knot, Schnabel and Visco. Earnings releases include Accenture, Enel, FedEx, Dollar General and Verbund.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.3% at 4,337.00
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 450.44
MXAP up 3.5% to 178.08
MXAPJ up 4.0% to 582.21
Nikkei up 3.5% to 26,652.89
Topix up 2.5% to 1,899.01
Hang Seng Index up 7.0% to 21,501.23
Shanghai Composite up 1.4% to 3,215.04
Sensex up 2.1% to 58,014.18
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.1% to 7,250.80
Kospi up 1.3% to 2,694.51
German 10Y yield little changed at 0.38%
Euro up 0.2% to $1.1057
Brent Futures up 3.0% to $100.97/bbl
Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,940.77
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.42% to 98.21

Top Overnight News

Russia’s Finance Ministry said a $117 million interest payment due on two dollar bonds had been made to Citibank in London amid mounting speculation that the country is heading for a default
Rates and currency markets are skeptical of the Bank of England’s ability to tame inflation without triggering an economic slowdown. Policymakers may undo tightening as soon as next year, swaps contracts suggest
After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and signaled hikes at all six remaining meetings this year, a section of the Treasury curve — the gap between five- and 10-year yields — inverted for the first time since March 2020. Meanwhile the flattening trend between two- and 10-year yields continued
Hungary’s central bank kept the effective interest rate unchanged after a rally in the forint eased pressure on policy makers to further hike the European Union’s highest key rate
Commodities trader Pierre Andurand sees a path for crude oil to get to $200 by the end of the year as historically tight markets struggle to ramp up production and replace lost supply from Russia

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks gained post-FOMC while Chinese tech remained euphoric on support pledges. ASX 200 was led higher again by outperformance in tech and following strong jobs data. Nikkei 225 rallied after recent currency weakness and despite the deadly earthquake in Fukushima. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. continued to benefit from China’s recent policy support pledges which lifted the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index by 33% and with the PBoC boosting its liquidity efforts. Significant gains were also seen amongst developers after reports that China is not planning to expand its pilot property tax reform this year.

Top Asian News

China Affirms Friendship With Ukraine, Promise to ‘Never Attack’
Indonesia Holds Rates While Monitoring Inflation, War Risks
War in Ukraine Triggers Slew of Shelved IPOs in Japan: ECM Watch
Strong Quake Hits Japan, Killing Two and Halting Factories

European bourses are predominantly negative, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%, after a relatively constructive open post Wall St./APAC handover. Initial upside faded as updates on Russia/Ukraine are downbeat overall and push back further on some of Wednesday’s more constructive updates. US futures are lower across the board, ES -0.4%, after yesterday’s upbeat close post a hawkish-FOMC.

Top European News

Raiffeisen CEO Says Bank is Considering Exit From Russia
UBS, Mitsubishi Sell Japan Realty Unit to KKR for $2 Billion
Russia’s Ruined Gameplan for Ukraine Is Visible in the South
Diageo Rises; JPMorgan Lifts to Overweight on U.S. Position

In FX, the dollar flips after hawkish Fed hike and more aggressive dot plot before unwinding all and more upside in buy rumor, sell fact reaction; DXY almost 100 ticks down from pre-FOMC peak and just off 98.000. Aussie outperforms following upbeat labour data and Kiwi lags on the back of sub-forecast GDP, AUD/USD eyeing Fib ahead of 0.7350, AUD/NZD back up over 1.0700 and NZD/USD capped into 0.6850. Sterling firm awaiting confirmation of 25 bp hike from the BoE and vote split plus MPC minutes for further guidance; Cable close to 1.3200 at best and EUR/GBP sub-0.8400. Euro clears 1.1000 again, while Yen extends decline to cross 119.00 line. Lira looks ahead to CBRT with high bar for any direct support in contrast to Real that got a full point hike from BCB and signal of more to come. Brazilian Central Bank raised the Selic rate by 100bps to 11.75%, as expected, while the decision was unanimous and it considered it appropriate to advance monetary tightening significantly into even more restrictive territory.

In commodities, crude futures continue to nurse recent wounds, with Brent May back around USD 102.50/bbl while WTI April inches toward USD 100/bbl. Upside occurred, picking up from initial choppy action, amid the most recent geopolitical developments from the Kremlin and Ukrainian Defence Ministry. India may purchase up to 15mln bbls of oil from Russia with state-run oil firms preparing to purchase heavy volumes of Russian crude that’s going at a deep discount to help ease the margin pressure oil refiners. China is to increase gasoline prices by CNY 750/ton and diesel by CNY 7220/ton as of March 18th, according to the NDRC via CCTV. Italy is considering blocking the export of raw materials, according to the Deputy Industry Minister. Spot gold/silver are firmer given geopolitical-premia., while LME Nickle hit the new adj. limit down of 8% after the reopen.

In fixed income, debt derives impetus from downturn in risk sentiment as Russia and Ukraine deny major strides towards ceasefire deal. Bond curves remain flatter following Fed’s hawkish dot plots. Bonos and OATs soak up Spanish and French supply.

US Event Calendar

8:30am: March Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 227,000; March Continuing Claims, est. 1.48m, prior 1.49m
8:30am: Feb. Building Permits, est. 1.85m, prior 1.9m; Building Permits MoM, est. -2.4%, prior 0.7%, revised 0.5%
8:30am: Feb. Housing Starts, est. 1.7m, prior 1.64m; Housing Starts MoM, est. 3.8%, prior -4.1%
8:30am: March Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 14.8, prior 16.0
9:15am: Feb. Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 1.4%
- Capacity Utilization, est. 77.9%, prior 77.6%
- Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 1.0%, prior 0.2%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After I press send today I’ll be venturing back on a plane for the first time in two years this morning. I’m off to give a speech at a conference in Cannes just at the time when all the tabloid papers here say that London is going to be hotter than Greece and the Costa Brava in a rare March warm spell here in the UK.

Rarer than a warm spell in the UK in March, we now have the start of only the fourth Fed hiking cycle in 27 years. We saw a wild ride in markets after the decision as initially the hawkish dot plot led to a big sell off in rates, and an S&P 500 that fell nearly -1.5% from pre announcement levels and into negative territory for the session. However markets completely turned on Powell’s comments in the press conference that the probability of recession was “not particularly elevated” and that the “economy is very strong” and can handle tighter policy. The S&P closed +2.24%, completing its biggest 2-day move in 23 months, while the Nasdaq climbed +3.77%. The big winners were mega cap tech stocks, with the FANG+ index putting in its best day on record, climbing +10.19%. The latter were almost certainly helped by earlier news that China would “actively introduce policies that benefit markets” and take steps to ease the most spartan lockdown measures. The FANG index includes Baidu and Alibaba that were up nearly +40% yesterday.

To be fair the Fed meeting and the surrounding price action makes sense. Although I think the risks of a US recession by late 2023 / early 2024 are increasingly elevated I’m not convinced that the risks are particularly high in 2022. The start of the hiking cycle isn’t historically the problem point for the economy or for that matter equities.

Further to this, in my CoTD yesterday (link here) I showed that on average it takes around three years from the first Fed hike to recession. However the bad news is that all but one of the recessions inside 37 months (essentially three years) occurred when the 2s10s curve inverted before the hiking cycle ended. With all the recessions that started later than that, none of them had an inverted curve when the hiking cycle ended. In fact, hiking cycles that ended with the curve still in positive territory saw the next recession hit 53 months on average after the first rate hike, whereas the next recession for hiking cycles that ended with an inverted curve started on average in 23 months, so just under two years. As a reminder, none of the US recessions in the last 70 years have occurred until the 2s10s has inverted. On average it takes 12-18 months from inversion to recession. The problem is that all but one of the hiking cycles in the last 70 years have seen a flatter 2s10s curve in the first year of hikes. The exception saw a very small steepening. So these are the risks.

Indeed the yield curve flattened after the Fed with 2s10s moving from just under +31bps to +21bps an hour later. It closed at +23bps. 10yr yields rose 6bps after the announcement but reversed most of this into the close and ended +4.1bps on the day at 2.18%. We are at 2.137% this morning. The rise in 2 years was more durable at +8.9bps on the day with a -2.4bps reversal this morning to 1.912%. At one point yesterday this was +15bps on the day and at a hair’s breadth below 2%. The tighter policy path meant that breakevens declined and real rates increased; 10yr Treasury breakevens fell -5.5bps to 2.80%.

Digging into the meeting itself. Two years to the day after cutting rates to the zero lower bound, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points yesterday, and communicated a much tighter path of policy to come (our US econ team’s full recap here). Yesterday’s meeting came with an updated Summary of Economic Projections, and the dots were much more hawkish. The median dot showed expectations for 7 hikes in 2022, including yesterday and in line with what our US economics team is expecting, and which would represent a hike at every meeting for the rest of the year. The median dot reaches 2.75% next year, above the Fed’s long-run estimate for the fed funds rate, signaling policy will need to get to a restrictive stance. Indeed, the dots actually showed the long-run neutral fed funds rate fell, so a restrictive stance will come even sooner. These were just the medians. There was considerable variance in the dots, and Chair Powell noted the risks to inflation were to the upside, suggesting rates could be even higher than what the hawkish medians are suggesting.

On the balance sheet, the Fed noted that QT would start at a coming meeting. Chair Powell signaled it could start as early as May, noting the Committee made excellent progress on the parameters of balance sheet runoff, even if they did not provide more details yesterday. Chair Powell noted the minutes from this meeting would have more details around runoff parameters.

Elsewhere in the press conference, the Chair noted that every meeting was live, and that the Fed would move more quickly if appropriate, which ostensibly means +50bp hikes are on the table, but also said the Fed’s expected QT program will equate to approximately one more hike, which is in line with our team’s expectations for QT this year. Indeed, each of the next few meetings is pricing a meaningful chance of a +50bp hike. He noted the Fed would be evaluating month-over-month inflation readings when determining the pace of policy tightening and that financial conditions needed to be tighter. In all, a hawkish meeting, which was expected, with little for doves to cling to.

After yesterday’s Fed hike, it is the Bank of England turn to raise rates with the decision scheduled for 12pm London time. A preview from our UK economist is available here. Our team expects a +25bps hike to bring the key rate to its pre-pandemic level of 0.75%. They also added a +25bps June hike to their projections for the path of the monetary policy in 2022, which would bring the benchmark rate to 1.5% by the end of this year. Beyond 2022, they see another hike in February 2023 that would bring the key rate to 1.75%, their projected terminal rate. More on their economic outlook for the UK can be found in the UK Macro Handbook here. As of this morning, the market is pricing in slightly less than 70bps of hikes by the end of 2022.

Turning to geopolitics, net net, more positive news flow came out of Russia-Ukraine talks, as a neutrality model that would allow Ukraine to preserve its army seems to be among options on the negotiations table. While comments were otherwise scarce, the head of Russian delegation Vladimir Medinsky said that the talks were going slowly and strenuously. Meanwhile, Russia was officially excluded from Council of Europe yesterday. Putin’s address on Russian TV was pretty hawkish but he was talking to a domestic audience.

An FT report that suggested significant progress in the talks contributed to the optimism that fuelled European shares higher as the STOXX 600 gained +3.06%, although an earlier catalyst for the rally was China’s announcement of economic support. Country-level stock markets like Germany’s DAX (+3.76%) and France’s CAC 40 (+3.68%) have notched even stronger gains. The former is now just 1.30% below its pre-invasion close on February 23rd. On that China story, the news was that Shanghai would not implement a strict lockdown in response to the recent outbreak but would instead encourage working from home helped support risk sentiment. Arguably more impactful for markets, top economic ministers noted that the government would introduce policies to benefit markets after the recent volatility, which was a boon to equities.

Following on from this, Asian stock markets have surged higher for a second day. The regional sentiment remains buoyant as a rally led by the Hang Seng (+5.79%), CSI (+3.19%) and Shanghai Composite (+2.59%) came after a blistering surge in tech stocks over the last 24 hours as a top Chinese official in his comments yesterday stated that the administration will introduce market friendly policies. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+3.14%) is sharply higher this morning, extending the gains in the previous two sessions while the Kospi (+1.77%) is also surging. US stock futures are fairly flat.

Prior to the Fed’s decision, European yields rallied after Sweden’s Riksbank governor did not rule out a possibility of a hike as early as this year – a significant shift from its previous 2024 projections. Swedish yields marched higher across the curve in response, with 10y rising by +7.2bps and hitting the highest level since January 2019 and the 2s10s curve steepening (+1.3bps), while the krona rose by +1.73% against the dollar in what was an overall down day for the greenback as the Bloomberg USD index declined by -0.35%. The British pound (+0.48%) rose as well ahead of the BoE decision and the yield on gilts (+5.3bps) reached the highest level since November 2018.

Together with aforementioned geopolitical developments, these news fuelled risk appetite and bond yields rose across most of the Eurozone before we even got to the Fed. Moves in bunds (+6.0bps), OATs (+4.2bps) and BTPs (-0.3bps) were accompanied by sizeable declines in underlying breakevens, with those on bunds (-5.1bps) and BTPs (-5.1bps) edging lower.

Inflation expectations were partially muted by a rather calm day for major commodities. Both Brent (-1.89%) and WTI (-1.45%) dipped although this has been reversed so far this morning. There were more fun and games in nickel after a week of no trading due to last week’s massive spike. This time trading was suspended as prices dropped below the new daily threshold and a technical glitch occurred.

Despite relative calm in oil markets, other Russia-related commodities continued to slide, especially so in Europe. The Dutch TTF futures for April delivery fell by -10.73% yesterday and around -70% since their intra-day peak on March 7th. Meanwhile, E.ON, German energy supplier, announced it will stop new purchases of gas from Russian companies, although the firm has no long-term contracts. Soft commodities like corn (-3.69%) and wheat (-7.36%), export of which was recently sanctioned by Russia, also declined.

In yesterday’s data releases, US retail sales came in at +0.3%, below +0.4% expected, with gasoline spending (+5.3%) driving the advance. The NAHB index also disappointed (79 vs 81 expected), dropping to a six month low.

To the day ahead now and housing starts, building permits, initial jobless claims and industrial production are due from the US. We will also hear from ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, Knot, Schnabel and Visco. Earnings releases include Accenture, Enel, FedEx, Dollar General and Verbund.

END

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY NIGHT

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

END

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFFAIRS

//EUROPE/COVID

Some of dubbed with mutated form of Omicron, deltacron. It is really a mutation of the Omicron balled BA 2. Omicron is BA1. It is more transmissible but also less harmful

This is probably a gift to Europe as many citizens will now get natural immunity once they recover from the virus attack

(zerohedge)

Western Europe Sees Alarming Uptick In COVID Cases

WEDNESDAY, MAR 16, 2022 – 09:00 PM

The other day we noted that the US had encountered signs gleaned from wastewater samples taken across the country that COVID cases might be on the rise after weeks of steady declines that recently prompted authorities to start dialing back pandemic-era requirements.

But China and the US aren’t the only places where case numbers have started to rise. A surge in coronavirus infections in western Europe has experts and health authorities on alert for another wave of the pandemic in the US even as most of the country has done away with restrictions after a sharp decline in cases.

Experts in Europe claim that the strain they’re seeing is a mutated form of omicron. It’s a subvariant known as BA. 2, which appears to be more transmissible than the original strain, BA. 1, and is fueling the outbreak overseas.

Germany, a nation of 83 million people, recorded roughly 250,000 new cases and 249 deaths last Friday, prompting Health Minister Karl Lauterbach to call the nation’s situation “critical.”

But despite this, Germany is still allowing most coronavirus restrictions to end Sunday. The UK had a seven-day average of 65,894 cases and 79 deaths as of Sunday, according to the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Research Center. The Netherlands, home to fewer than 18 million people, was averaging more than 60,000 cases the same day.

All told, roughly a dozen nations are seeing spikes in coronavirus infections caused by BA. 2, a cousin of omicron, which is known as BA. 1. Over the past two years, outbreaks in Europe have typically been followed by outbreaks in the US.

So far, BA. 2 appears to be spreading more slowly in the US than it has overseas, for reasons that aren’t entirely clear, Debbie Dowell, chief medical officer for the CDC’s COVID response, said in a briefing for clinicians sponsored by the Infectious Diseases Society of America Saturday.

But as far as Europe is concerned, if cases continue to rise, how long before the ECB considers reversing course on its tightening of monetary policy?

END

Sterling tumbles after a very dovish 25 bps rate hike. Inflation is ravaging the country at around 8%

(zerohedge)

Sterling Tumbles After Dovish 25bps Rate Hike By BOE

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 08:23 AM

For the third month in a row, the Bank of England – which got an early head start in the tightening race by hiking from zero by 25bps last December – has hiked rates by the 25bps as expected, pushing the official BOE bank rate to a pre-pandemic level of 0.75%, in a surprising 8-1 vote split, with Deputy Governor Cunliffe voting for no change amid fears over shrinking real household incomes.

The hike marks the quickest pace of tightening since 1997, just after the BOE won the authority to set policy independently.

The central bank said that the war in Ukraine would push inflation to around 8% in the second quarter, up from 7.25% previously. It warned the peak rate later this year could be “several percentage points higher” than estimated in February.

In a far more dovish statement than February, or the Fed yesterday, Andrew Bailey’s central bank said a further tightening of policy “might be” appropriate in the coming months, a major softening from the wording in February, when they said such a move was “likely.” They also noted “there were risks on both sides of that judgment.”

At the same time, the BOE warned that the spike in inflation means the squeeze on households incomes in the U.K. will be “materially larger” than implied in February. It also warned that the war in Ukraine will exacerbate global supply chain disruptions and said its regional agents found evidence it’s already snarling supply chains for manufacturers.

The BOE noted that the squeeze on incomes will lead to a weaker outlook for growth and raise unemployment, officials said. Cunliffe in voting to leave rates unchanged focused on that dynamic and concerns about the “very material negative impacts” that higher commodity prices will have on living standards. For the rest of the committee, robust growth in recent months and a continued tightening in the labor market warranted a move, Bloomberg notes. They said that job shortages were unlikely to ease as quickly as had been expected in February.

The decision suggests policy makers expect an increasingly delicate balancing act in the coming months as they weigh both how to combat inflation and the growing threats to growth from the impact of the war in Ukraine.

Further out, the BOE also said inflation will “fall back materially,” a comment that, combined with the gloomy outlook for living standards, suggests a degree of pushback against current market pricing for rates to hit 2% by the end of the year.
For now, the BOE is leading the way in a global tightening of monetary policy, and is the first major institution to bring rates back to their pre-covid setting. The BOE decision came just hours after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point and signaled six more such hikes this year.

In kneejerk response, and in stark contrast to February, sterling tumbled sharply as Gilts spiked on the 8-1 split and Cunliffe’s vote to keep the bank rate at 0.5%, while the BOE continues to push back against market pricing for further tightening. Cable dropped as much as 1.31 from 1.32 before the announcement. Meanwhile 10Y gilts is over 122 and STIR contracts are unwinding hike expectations.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA

Not very good: Russia demands the uSA to stop arms slow into Ukraine or else they are deemed a legitimate target….Sullivan warns the Kremlin against the use of chemical weapons

(zerohedge)

Russia Demands US Stop Arms Flow To Ukraine In Call; Sullivan Warns Against Chemical Weapons Use

WEDNESDAY, MAR 16, 2022 – 04:40 PM

Interfax is reporting that Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev asked his US counterpart Jake Sullivan in a Wednesday phone call to stop the US and Western supply of weapons going to Ukraine’s military.

This after for many days now the Kremlin has put NATO countries on notice, saying that any inbound military shipment from external allies of Kiev will be deemed a “legitimate target”. The call also focused on pushing for a ceasefire after a lot of prior back-and-forth over the potential for a concrete ceasefire plan based on Ukraine’s neutrality regarding the NATO question.

“Mr. Sullivan clearly laid out the United States’ commitment to continue imposing costs on Russia, to support the defense of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank, in continued full coordination with our Allies and partners,” the White House said in a statement.

So far these “costs” have remained in the realm of sanctions and international isolation. The call was tense, given also that Sullivan warned his Russian counterpart against deployment of any chemical weapons – though it’s unclear why the US thinks Russia’s military is readying this as an option:

U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan warned General Nikolay Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, of the consequences in response to any Russian chemical or biological weapon attack in Ukraine.
Sullivan spoke with Patrushev in a phone call Wednesday, according to the White House. Sullivan also said Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns should stop if Russia is “serious about diplomacy.”

Biden on Tuesday signed a spending bill which allocates billions more in funding weapons and defense and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine.

Putin responds after Zelensky’s address to Canadian parliament on Tuesday and US lawmakers Wednesday…

On Wednesday morning President Zelensky made a case before Congress in a virtual address for a West-backed No Fly Zone. He also urged that the US give Kiev more “powerful aircraft” – as well additional weapons to stave off the Russian attack.

end

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

There is no progress in Ukrainian talks.

Kremlin: Reports Of Major Progress In Ukraine Talks “Wrong”, Biden’s Putin Remark “Unforgiveable”

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 08:10 AM

The past two days saw reports of “progress made” in ongoing Ukraine-Russia ceasefire talks, but a Kremlin spokesman shot that down as “wrong” while still affirming that discussions are continuing Thursday.

Wednesday afternoon saw for the first time Presdient Biden when asked by a reporter call Vladimir Putin a “war criminal”. Peskov weighed in on the provocative words, saying this characterization was “unforgiveable”. And according to Bloomberg:

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a Financial Times report of substantial progress in talks with Ukraine was “wrong” but that the discussions will continue on Thursday. He blamed Kyiv for dragging its feet on negotiations, saying Ukraine’s government was “in no rush.” Ukraine dismissed the Financial Times report on Wednesday, saying significant issues remained.

“I don’t know if they are already underway but they are expected [to take place] on various tracks,” Peskov said of Thursday talks. He said contacts are expected to be held today,” according to state media.

“Our delegation, led by [Presidential Aide Vladimir] Medinsky, maintains contact with experts and government agencies, it’s ready to work around the clock, it has made its willingness clear. Unfortunately, we don’t see similar enthusiasm from the Ukrainian side,” the spokesman added. Zelensky himself acknowledged negotiations as “fairly difficult” while the Kremlin said it’s ready to reach peace but “on our terms” – meaning it’s still seeking a military solution on the ground in Ukraine.

Further Zelensky said the following in a US media interview:

Zelensky says Russia has crossed “all the red lines”: Asked in an NBC interview on Wednesday if a chemical attack by Russia would be a red line that would prompt the US to become more actively involved in combat, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said, “I believe that Russians have already crossed all the red lines when they started shelling civilians.” Russia has already killed more than 100 children, Zelensky said, adding: “I don’t understand the meaning of red lines. What else should we wait for? For letting Russians kill 200, 300 or 400 children?”

Coming off Zelensky’s Tuesday address to Canadian parliament, and Wednesday speech to US Congress – wherein he urged a no-fly zone in both – the Ukrainian leader addressed Germany parliament on Thursday, delivering a similar message, while invoking Holocaust imagery and references. This also as the Group of Seven foreign ministers hold a virtual meeting to discuss the crisis.

US intelligence is being cited in Thursday reports to say Russia has suffered huge military losses, though the allegation is unconfirmed…

Further Bloomberg details of the battlefield situation that “Ukraine’s military said Russian strikes continued on infrastructure sites and on densely populated areas of cities. But it said the Kremlin’s forces remain bogged down on the ground.” However, “Russia said its troops were advancing through the town of Sievierodonetsk in the Luhansk region in the east.”

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has castigated Western press reports for what she described as a “distorted picture” of the reality of the Russian military operation in Ukraine. She also said Moscow is not seeking to remove Ukraine’s statehood.

“Let me stress once again what both the Western mass media and the Western establishment refuse to see: this operation is not targeted at the civilian population. It does not pursue the aim of seizing the country’s territory, ruining its statehood or ousting the current president. We keep saying this again and again,” she described to a news briefing.

Interestingly the statement constituted among the clearest denials so far that Russia is seeking full regime change in Kiev, also amid conjecture that it will seek a permanent occupation or even annexation of the country.

“The Western media are forming an absolutely distorted picture of current events. They disinform their own population. They are a propaganda tool in the hands of their politicians,” Zakharova said.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports amid speculation over whether or not Moscow made its dollar bond interest payment in rubles, “Russia’s Finance Ministry said a $117 million interest payment due on two dollar bonds had been made to Citibank in London amid mounting speculation that the country is heading for a default. Russia had until the end of business Wednesday to honor the coupons on the two notes. The ruble gained for a sixth day in Moscow trading, while the country’s stock market remains shut.”

UKRAINE//CORN

Ukraine’s corn harvest may plunge by a third and maybe half

(zerohedge)

Ukraine’s Corn Harvest May Plunge By A Third, Estimates Show

WEDNESDAY, MAR 16, 2022 – 06:40 PM

Black Sea research firm SovEcon reports that Ukraine, one of the world’s top grains exporters, will experience dramatic output declines in the 2022 harvest year due to the Russian invasion.

Ukraine’s main agricultural export products are corn and wheat. Before the invasion, Ukraine was the second-largest supplier of grains for the European Union and one of the largest suppliers for emerging markets in Asia and Africa. Breaking down the numbers, Ukraine produced 49.6% of global sunflower oil, 10% of global wheat, 12.6% of global barley, and 15.3% of global maize.

SovEcon expects Ukraine’s 2022 corn harvest to plunge 35% from 41.9 million tons last year to 27.7 million tons this year. This year’s estimated wheat harvest has been cut to 26 million tons from an earlier outlook of 28.3 million tons, compared with 32.1 million tons last year.

SovEcon, which specializes in agricultural markets, said the regions affected by conflict account for 40% of the country’s corn and wheat production. They said plantings and yields would be impacted by fuel shortages, lack of workers and fertilizer, and fieldwork challenges due to the conflict. Also, a weather component of drought could affect wheat-producing areas.

However, the research firm says estimates are based on Russia reaching a ceasefire deal with Ukraine, allowing farmers to begin fieldwork in April as spring is around the corner.

What if the conflict continues to rage on and or for whatever reason, fieldwork in some areas cannot be completed due to shortages of equipment, fuel, seeds, fertilizer, and labor? Then wait?

Harvests could be even lower than SovEcon’s current estimates and may propel global food prices even higher. The UN projects global food prices could rise another 8-20% from current levels.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has enforced protectionist measures to ensure domestic stability of its food supply by banning wheat and other commodities exports. This move will result in higher global food prices, and countries that depend on Ukraine for their food needs may experience shortages. We explain what happens next in the ag note “Soaring Wheat Prices Leave These Countries Susceptible To Uprisings.”

… and then there’s this tweet:

END

RUSSIA//UKRAINE//CHINA/USA

Biden to speak to Xi on Friday. Lavrov’s plane to Beijing turns around as maybe China is getting cold feet on supplying arms to Russia.

(zerohedge)

Biden To Speak With China’s Xi Friday On Ukraine

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 08:47 AM

President Joe Biden is expected to hold a phone call with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping Friday about what the White House described as “managing the competition between our two countries as well as Russia’s war against Ukraine and other issues of mutual concern.”

It comes days after accusations flew from Washington charging Beijing and Moscow of seeking backdoor cooperation on the Ukraine invasion, particularly on sanctions evasion. Further, several US media reports based on the words of “senior admin officials” said that Russia formally requested that China provide weaponry for the Kremlin’s Ukraine operations.

Press Secretary Jen Psaki described of the scheduled Xi call, “This is part of our ongoing efforts to maintain open lines of communication between the United States and the PRC.”

Earlier in the week Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan engaged in a some 7-hour long meeting in Rome with his Chinese counterpart, wherein in Sullivan said Beijing was warned of “consequences” should it help Russia in any way financially or militarily regarding the Ukraine war.

Sullivan relayed the threat of “potential implications and consequences” for Beijing and expressed Washington’s “deep concerns”. China in the aftermath rejected the charge, starting with its embassy in Washington D.C. saying it had never heard of such an interaction between China and Russia, especially on the charge of the weapons shipments request.

China on Thursday has “affirmed” its “friendship” with Ukraine, vowing to never attack, according to Bloomberg:

Ambassador Fan Xianrong had told Lviv Governor Maksym Kozytskyi during a meeting Monday that China was a “friendly country for the Ukrainian people” and would “never attack Ukraine,” according to a summary posted on the Lviv government’s website. He went on to praise the strength and unity demonstrated by the Ukrainian people, in an apparent reference to their efforts to resist Russia’s ongoing invasion.

Meanwhile, an unusual development is being reported…

And since the weekend and Monday accusations, Chinese officials and state media have gone on the attack…

The last time Biden and Xi spoke was during their three-and-a-half hour virtual summit last November, which reportedly resulted in no breakthroughs, according to statements from both sides.

END

RUSSIA/INFLATION

Shortages of food and other items is causing inflation in Russia to rise close to 20% per annum

(zerohedge)

“Soviet-Like Inflation” Returns As Sanctions Shock Russia Into Crisis

WEDNESDAY, MAR 16, 2022 – 05:20 PM

Russians are feeling the economic pain of sanctions by the US and other Western countries, as inflation has sharply accelerated amid a collapsing ruble.

Annual inflation soared to 12.54% as of March 11, its highest since the second half of 2015 and up from 10.42% a week earlier, the Rosstat statistics agency announced Wednesday. Prices in Russia have increased over the last several weeks, and the economy is headed for a deep recession as there is more turmoil ahead.

Between March 5-11, inflation data came in at 2.1%, the second-highest weekly print in more than two decades, down from a 2.2% rise in prices a week earlier.

Alexander Abramov, a market analyst at RANEPA, a state-run university in Moscow, told Bloomberg that “Soviet-like inflation” could return as it manifests through a deficit of goods that pushes prices higher.

“The main risk now is the emergence of a shortage of basic imported everyday goods, as well as durable goods,” Abramov said. “Many are no longer available in stores, and prices in online stores have risen sharply.”

Deteriorating financial conditions and inflation over the Central Bank of Russia’s 4% annual inflation target means households and businesses are distressed.

Following the invasion of Ukraine, Western sanctions have plunged the Russian economy into a crisis that could be on par with the fall of the Soviet Union.

Sanctions targeting the central bank’s ability to use a majority of its reserves to stabilize the ruble have sent the currency to an all-time low, forcing the bank to raise interest rates to a shocking 20%. Cutting some Russian banks off SWIFT and not allowing them to transact in dollars and euros has amplified the financial crisis.

Rosstat said consumers in many cities reported shortages of staple foods, and prices have soared 15% over the last two weeks. Moscow has chosen to ban certain agricultural exports to stabilize domestic food prices.

Prices for over-the-counter medicines have sharply risen. Imported goods and products with foreign components have seen price increases of at least 10% in the last two weeks.

“Definitely households will be very severely hit and will pay a big price,” Mario Bikarski, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit told The Moscow Times. “Corporates are also suffering greatly … It will be Russia’s private sector and households, especially lower-income households, that will take the biggest hits.”

The central bank will reconvene on Friday to decide the following steps to prevent a systemic meltdown.

“Tight monetary conditions are helping inflation ease, but it won’t save it from reaching 20% this year in the conditions of deficit of certain goods and a considerable ruble drop,” Raiffeisen Bank analysts wrote in a note.

The Moscow Times said economists surveyed by the central bank expect inflation to jump to 20% this year, with interest rates in the double-digit range through the end of 2023.

end

UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA/NATO COUNTRIES

The war is leading to a massive USA military buildup in Europe/NATO countries

(Dave DeCamp/Antiwar.com)

Ukraine War Is Leading To Massive US Military Buildup In Europe

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The fighting in Ukraine may lead to a rethinking of the US’s military posture in Europe that could lead to a buildup of US forces in the region not seen since the end of the Cold War.

According to Stars and Stripes, the US currently has 100,000 troops operating in Europe, the highest number since 2005. Troop numbers spiked recently as President Biden ordered more deployments amid heightened tensions and since Russia invaded Ukraine. In January, there were 80,000 US troops on the continent.

Germany still hosts the most US troops in Europe, but US military leaders are looking to send more forces further east. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is due to meet with other NATO military leaders in Brussels on Wednesday to discuss reinforcing the military alliance’s so-called “eastern flank.”

Ahead of the meeting, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said allies should be prepared for a “major increase” in military spending. “On land, this could include substantially more forces on the eastern part of the alliance,” he said.

Stoltenberg said the alliance will also “consider major increases to our air and naval deployments, strengthening our integrated air and missile defense, reinforcing our cyber defenses, and holding more and larger exercises.” Later this month, President Biden will attend an “extraordinary summit” with NATO leaders in Brussels, which is scheduled for March 24.

In recent months, the US has sent more troops to countries bordering Russia and Ukraine, including Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states of Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. According to numbers from US European Command, Poland currently has 10,000 US troops, Romania has 2,400, and 2,500 are spread out across the Baltics.

The US and NATO are reinforcing these countries in the name of deterring Russia. But NATO’s eastward expansion since the end of the Cold War and its presence near Russia’s borders has significantly escalated tensions in the region and is one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s main justifications for attacking Ukraine.

end

This is huge!!

Something is amiss

Inbox

Putin has now boldly stated coronavirus was developed in Ukraine. I suspected this some time ago. This is bombshell of global proportions because it squarely points the finger at the Democrats, WEF and others of that crowd. You can bet all information collected has been shared with China and India etc.

Some of the Ukranian biolab employees defected to Putin and spilled the beans. This was bound to happen an d why certain moves have been made to secure the labs and about 19 keys scientists. This goes with it already being known and accepted that the labs were being used to study how to get pandemics to spread via migratory animals – that’s why in China it showed up in bats.

Under Secretary of State Victoria “Cookies” Nuland threw gas on the topic by stating “We are now in fact quite concerned that Russian troops, Russian forces, may be seeking to gain control of those labs, so we are working with the Ukranians on how they can prevent any of those research materials from falling into the hands of Russian forces should they approach”

The reaction from Nuland really bolsters the claims made by the employees that worked at the labs. Yes, they may have defected but doing that with the actual materials in your hand would be a tough gig and such proof increases credibility greatly. Now we have confirmation from Nuland that there really is something the West wants to hide.

So Ukraine and the west at the biolabs are literally “shredding ballots” to cover up their biowarfare programs. They have the expert at document destruction making sure nothing is found before a “Russian audit” happens.

Russia’s top people are fleeing Moscow.
It is fairly obvious the West wants nuclear war to cover up vax deaths and Putin is not backing down in the face of massive escalation by the west. Nor is he interested in their Great Reset and nor is China.

Passenger jets that have only the job of being for passengers that belong only to the Russian air force are leaving Moscow and going to remote locations. So far it has amounted to 2 sukhoi superjets (capacity 85 each) two tupolev 214 (210 passengers each) 1 tupolev 204 (190 passengers) an antonov an-148 (80 passengers) 1 IllyushinII-96 (430 passengers) 1 Airbus A319 (120 passengers. They are all headed to points east of Moscow, well into the Russian heartland. Think Urals and safe havens. Oligarchs are fleeing in their private jest to Dubai today. Why?

911 happened in part because the Pentagon had a missing $2 trillion they did not want to answer for, and quite conveniently the computers holding that data were exactly where the plane hit. The same people just got done jabbing 3 billion people. Think they’d launch a nuclear war to cover that up?

The U.S. has given Ukraine 100 killer drones. That’s an escalation Putin probably won’t tolerate. What happens now will go very quickly. Ask yourself what could go wrong?

end

Russia Avoids Default After $117 Million Eurobond Coupons Funds Sent To Citigroup

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 01:04 PM

After Wednesday concerns that holders of Russian government dollar bonds may be hosed amid a lack of confirmation that interest payments had been successfully made, Bloomberg reports that JPMorgan has indeed processed the funds, which have been forwarded to Citigroup, according to people familiar with the matter.

JPMorgan was the correspondent bank Russia used to send the payment to Citigroup, which is acting as payment agent on the bonds, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. JPMorgan sent the money to Citigroup after it sought and received the required approvals from U.S. authorities on Wednesday, one of the people said. -Bloomberg

At issue were two dollar-denominated government bonds which have $117 million in interest due today. Had they failed to pay, or had Russia attempted to pay them in rubles instead of dollars – it would have potentially placed Russia in default by its creditors. As discussed on Tuesday, the bonds have a 30-day grace period, so creditors can’t officially declare default until April 15.

The 4 7/8ths of Sep 2023 shot higher (in price) by $10 on the coupon payment…

The Russian Finance Ministry said it sent the funds on March 14 to an unidentified correspondent bank, and said it would issue a later comment on whether Citibank’s London branch – the paying agent, had received it.

That said, while the funds have been processed, bondholders in Europe say they still haven’t received the funds which are in Citibank’s possession.

The New York-based Citigroup collects payments from bond issuers and distributes payments to investors.

According to the US Treasury, payment of interest on the bonds issued before March 1 by Russia’s central bank national wealth fund or finance ministry is permissible until May 25, per the Journal, after which a specific Treasury-approved license will be required to continue to receive interest, dividends, or maturity payments on Russian government debt. Under those rules, analysts expect that the Kremlin will be able to continue satisfying its foreign-currency debt in the coming weeks.

But this process is far from over yet as there are far more coupon and principal payments to be made…

With two full maturities on March 31 and April 4th.

‘After Syria, Ukraine is part two of World War III’: Senior Analyst | Middle East Observer

Inbox

A different view.
Most of the tactical military aspects should wrap up the first week of April. The clean up of NeoNazi types will be much longer. And no the Russians are not running out of bread or bullets as MSM would have us believe.
In 4-6 weeks food stuffs like Sunflower oil will become scarce on shelves and be a in your face example of else will come forth.
As the military side completes the danger of NATO escalation grows when defeat of effort is recognized.

http://middleeastobserver.net/after-syria-ukraine-is-part-two-of-world-war-iii-senior-analyst/

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE ISSUES/GLOBAL ISSUES

COVID//GLOBAL

GLOBAL ISSUES

This is what you are to expect if they introduce digital currencies

(The Whiteheads)

Digital Tyranny: Beware Of The Government’s Push For A Digital Currency

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Authored by John W. Whitehead & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“The greatest tyrannies are always perpetrated in the name of the noblest causes.”
– Thomas Paine

The government wants your money.

It will beg, steal or borrow if necessary, but it wants your money any way it can get it.

The government’s schemes to swindle, cheat, scam, and generally defraud taxpayers of their hard-earned dollars have run the gamut from wasteful pork barrel legislation, cronyism and graft to asset forfeiture, costly stimulus packages, and a national security complex that continues to undermine our freedoms while failing to making us any safer.

Americans have also been made to pay through the nose for the government’s endless wars, subsidization of foreign nations, military empire, welfare state, roads to nowhere, bloated workforce, secret agencies, fusion centers, private prisons, biometric databases, invasive technologies, arsenal of weapons, and every other budgetary line item that is contributing to the fast-growing wealth of the corporate elite at the expense of those who are barely making ends meet—that is, we the taxpayers.

This is what comes of those $1.5 trillion spending bills: someone’s got to foot the bill.

Because the government’s voracious appetite for money, power and control has grown out of control, its agents have devised other means of funding its excesses and adding to its largesse through taxes disguised as fines, taxes disguised as fees, and taxes disguised as tolls, tickets and penalties.

No matter how much money the government pulls in, it’s never enough, so the government has come up with a new plan to make it even easier for its agents to seize Americans’ bank accounts.

Make way for the digital dollar.

In an Executive Order issued on March 9, 2022, President Biden called for the federal government to consider establishing a “U.S. Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).”

Similar to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, CBDCs would also be a form of digital money, but there the resemblance ends. If adopted, CBDCs would be issued by the Federal Reserve, the central banking system for the U.S. government. One CBDC digital dollar would equal the value of a physical dollar. And like the physical dollar, which ceased to be backed by gold more than 50 years ago, the CBDC would be considered a government-issued fiat currency that is backed by the strength and credit of the U.S. government. (Of course, that’s not saying much considering that much of the time, the U.S. government operates in the red.)

Although government agencies have six months to weigh in on the advantages and disadvantages of a centralized digital currency, it’s as good as a done deal.

For instance, three weeks before the Biden Administration made headlines with its support for a government-issued digital currency, the FBI and the Justice Department quietly moved ahead with plans for a cryptocurrency enforcement team (translation: digital money cops), a virtual asset exploitation unit tasked with investigating crypto crimes and seizing virtual assets, and a crypto czar to oversee it all.

No surprises here, of course.

This is how the government operates: by giving us tools to make our lives “easier” while, in the process, making it easier for the government to track, control and punish the citizenry.

Indeed, this shift to a digital currency is a global trend.

More than 100 other countries are considering introducing their own digital currencies.

China has already adopted a government-issued digital currency, which not only allows it to surveil and seize people’s financial transactions, but can also work in tandem with its social credit score system to punish individuals for moral lapses and social transgressions (and reward them for adhering to government-sanctioned behavior). As China expert Akram Keram wrote for The Washington Post, “With digital yuan, the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] will have direct control over and access to the financial lives of individuals, without the need to strong-arm intermediary financial entities. In a digital-yuan-consumed society, the government easily could suspend the digital wallets of dissidents and human rights activists.”

Where China goes, the United States eventually follows.

Inevitably, a digital currency will become part of our economy and a central part of the government’s surveillance efforts.

Combine that with ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) initiatives that are tantamount to social media credit scores for corporations, and you will find that we’re traveling the same road as China towards digital authoritarianism. As journalist Jon Brookin warns: “Digital currency issued by a central bank can be used as a tool for government surveillance of citizens and control over their financial transactions.”

As such, digital currency provides the government and its corporate partners with a mode of commerce that can easily be monitored, tracked, tabulated, mined for data, hacked, hijacked and confiscated when convenient.

This push for a digital currency dovetails with the government’s war on cash, which it has been subtly waging for some time now. Much like the war on drugs and the war on terror, this so-called “war on cash” has been sold to the public as a means of fighting terrorists, drug dealers, tax evaders and more recently, COVID-19 germs.

In recent years, just the mere possession of significant amounts of cash could implicate you in suspicious activity and label you a criminal. The rationale (by police) is that cash is the currency for illegal transactions given that it’s harder to track, can be used to pay illegal immigrants, and denies the government its share of the “take,” so doing away with paper money will help law enforcement fight crime and help the government realize more revenue.

According to economist Steve Forbes, “The real reason for this war on cash—start with the big bills and then work your way down—is an ugly power grab by Big Government. People will have less privacy: Electronic commerce makes it easier for Big Brother to see what we’re doing, thereby making it simpler to bar activities it doesn’t like, such as purchasing salt, sugar, big bottles of soda and Big Macs.”

This is how a cashless society—easily monitored, controlled, manipulated, weaponized and locked down—plays right into the hands of the government (and its corporate partners).

Despite what we know about the government and its history of corruption, bumbling, fumbling and data breaches, not to mention how easily technology can be used against us, the shift to a cashless society is really not a hard sell for a society increasingly dependent on technology for the most mundane aspects of life.

In much the same way that Americans have opted into government surveillance through the convenience of GPS devices and cell phones, digital cash—the means of paying with one’s debit card, credit card or cell phone—is becoming the de facto commerce of the American police state.

Not too long ago, it was estimated that smart phones would replace cash and credit cards altogether by 2020. Right on schedule, growing numbers of businesses have adopted no-cash policies, including certain airlines, hotels, rental car companies, restaurants and retail stores. In Sweden, even the homeless and churches accept digital cash.

Making the case for a digital wallet, journalist Lisa Rabasca Roepe argues that there’s no longer a need for cash. “More and more retailers and grocery stores are embracing Apple Pay, Google Wallet, Samsung Pay, and Android Pay,” notes Roepe. “PayPal’s app is now accepted at many chain stores including Barnes & Noble, Foot Locker, Home Depot, and Office Depot. Walmart and CVS have both developed their own payment apps while their competitors Target and RiteAid are working on their own apps.”

So what’s really going on here?

Despite all of the advantages that go along with living in a digital age—namely, convenience—it’s hard to imagine how a cashless world navigated by way of a digital wallet doesn’t signal the beginning of the end for what little privacy we have left and leave us vulnerable to the likes of government thieves, data hackers and an all-knowing, all-seeing Orwellian corpo-governmental state.

First, when I say privacy, I’m not just referring to the things that you don’t want people to know about, those little things you do behind closed doors that are neither illegal nor harmful but embarrassing or intimate. I am also referring to the things that are deeply personal and which no one need know about, certainly not the government and its constabulary of busybodies, nannies, Peeping Toms, jail wardens and petty bureaucrats.
Second, we’re already witnessing how easy it will be for government agents to manipulate digital wallets for their own gain in order to track your movements, monitor your activities and communications, and ultimately shut you down. For example, civil asset forfeiture schemes are becoming even more profitable for police agencies thanks to ERAD (Electronic Recovery and Access to Data) devices supplied by the Department of Homeland Security that allow police to not only determine the balance of any magnetic-stripe card (i.e., debit, credit and gift cards) but also freeze and seize any funds on pre-paid money cards. In fact, the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that it does not violate the Fourth Amendment for police to scan or swipe your credit card. Expect those numbers to skyrocket once digital money cops show up in full force.
Third, a government-issued digital currency will give the government the ultimate control of the economy and complete access to the citizenry’s pocketbook. While the government might tout the ease with which it can deposit stimulus funds into the citizenry’s accounts, such a system could also introduce what economists refer to as “negative interest rates.” Instead of being limited by a zero bound threshold on interest rates, the government could impose negative rates on digital accounts in order to control economic growth. “If the cash is electronic, the government can just erase 2 percent of your money every year,” said David Yermack, a finance professor at New York University.
Fourth, a digital currency will open Americans—and their bank accounts—up to even greater financial vulnerabilities from hackers and government agents alike.
Fifth, digital authoritarianism will redefine what it means to be free in almost every aspect of our lives. Again, we must look to China to understand what awaits us. As Human Rights Watch analyst Maya Wang explains: “Chinese authorities use technology to control the population all over the country in subtler but still powerful ways. The central bank is adopting digital currency, which will allow Beijing to surveil—and control—people’s financial transactions. China is building so-called safe cities, which integrate data from intrusive surveillance systems to predict and prevent everything from fires to natural disasters and political dissent. The government believes that these intrusions, together with administrative actions, such as denying blacklisted people access to services, will nudge people toward ‘positive behaviors,’ including greater compliance with government policies and healthy habits such as exercising.”

Short of returning to a pre-technological, Luddite age, there’s really no way to pull this horse back now that it’s left the gate. To our detriment, we have virtually no control over who accesses our private information, how it is stored, or how it is used. And in terms of our bargaining power over digital privacy rights, we have been reduced to a pitiful, unenviable position in which we can only hope and trust that those in power will treat our information with respect.

At a minimum, before any kind of digital currency is adopted, we need stricter laws on data privacy and an Electronic Bill of Rights that protects “we the people” from predatory surveillance and data-mining business practices by the government and its corporate partners.

As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, the ramifications of a government—any government—having this much unregulated, unaccountable power to target, track, round up and detain its citizens is beyond chilling.

end

VACCINE MANDATES/

a must view….

special thanks to Milan AS for sending this to us!!

Masks test

Inbox

VACCINE INJURIES

Researchers have found an overwhelming number of cases of tinnitus (ringing in the ears) after mRNA vaccine injections

Phillips/EpochTimes)

END

VACCINE IMPACT

Time to Ditch DuckDuckGo? Popular Alternative Internet Search Site Announces it is Censoring “Russian Disinformation”

March 16, 2022 6:23 pm

Anyone following the news in the Alternative Media this past week has probably been shocked to learn that the popular alternative search engine, DuckDuckGo, announced that they were beginning to censor search results based on “Russian Disinformation.” So is it time to ditch DuckDuckGo as an alternative search engine to the evil Google search? James Corbett of the Corbett Report today had a broadcast that discussed other alternative search engines that also focus on privacy. He discussed 3 alternatives: Brave Search, Sear X, and Presearch. It takes a bit more effort to get Big Brother off of your back to stop watching everything you do, but the effort is well worth it, when the current culture today can label you as a “terrorist” for simply voicing your opinion on something, and then you end up on a government watch list.

Read Mor

Michael Every

Michael Every on the day’s major topics

Rabo: Markets Are Ignoring Everything Actually Happening To Focus On What They Think Will Happen

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 10:31 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Looking forward with fingers crossed

Another wild, exhausting day of headlines and trading, but one simple summary: markets are ignoring everything actually happening to focus on what they think is going to happen, which involves keeping their fingers crossed when others may be doing the same in a different way.

Let’s start with the war. Again, markets tried to trade for peace, this time with the help of the Financial Times publishing a ‘15-point plan’ allegedly close to being agreed that included Ukraine being a neutral state like Switzerland or Austria, and having security guarantees from the US, UK, and Turkey. This was then almost immediately rejected by Ukraine. Indeed, a spokesperson said that plan reflected only the Russian position.

Instead, what we got by the end of the day was what I had been flagging – further escalation. Russia bombed a theater in Mariupol, likely killing hundreds sheltering there. Moreover, Putin gave a national speech which I share snippets of in order to convey its tone and message. He claimed Russia was ‘being cancelled’ and spoke of “fifth columns” and “national traitors” who “cannot do without oysters, foie gras, and gender freedoms,” who “by their very nature are located exactly there, not here, not with our people, not with Russia. This is, in their opinion, a sign of belonging to a higher caste, a higher race. Such people are ready to sell their own mother… The collective West is trying to split our society, speculating on the combat losses, on the socio-economic sanctions… and there is only one goal… the destruction of Russia. But I am convinced that… the Russian people will be able to distinguish true patriots from scum and traitors and simply spit them out like a midge that accidentally flew into their mouths. Spit them out on the pavement. I am convinced that such a natural and necessary self-purification of society will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, cohesion, and readiness to respond to any challenges.”

Does this sound like a man looking to deescalate, or one who is going to double down to get better terms? On social media, we ominously already see images of ‘Z’ symbols being painted on the doors of suspected ‘fifth columnists’. And, likewise, Ukraine began push-backs against Russian lines, shifting the narrative and perhaps to some extent the military positions, while the US announced it will massively expand the weaponry it is sending, including the latest-tech armed drones and reshuffled S-300 air defense systems from Slovakia, as President Biden called Putin “a war criminal.” In short, front-running Western geopolitical naïfs with itchy trade trigger fingers need to consider the following before rushing to keep pricing in ‘peace in our time’:

How much of its territory can Kyiv give away as reward to the aggressor without prompting a civil war with its own nationalists?
Austria and Switzerland are in the EU or have close association with it. Will ‘neutral’ Ukraine? If not, how does it recover and thrive without being sucked back into a Russian orbit?
Providing security guarantees to Ukraine means the US, UK, and Turkey being prepared to fight the WW3 against Russia – so NATO’s Article 5 extended to Ukraine without actual membership. Without such a guarantee, how is Ukraine to live alongside a Russia that talks the way Putin?
Even regarding a ceasefire, Russia (and Ukraine) can keep their fingers crossed behind their backs, regroup, and then start fighting again from better positions.

Now to the Fed. They hiked 25bp, as expected. They were hawkish in tone. Their dot plot now shows a 25bp hike every meeting this year. And May is now the live date to start to unwind QE. As Philip Marey notes of the remaining 6 hikes this year, “Given the deteriorating global economic outlook, we have our doubts whether the FOMC will deliver them… Indeed, in the next few meetings (May, June, July) we expect the Committee to continue hiking 25bp per meeting. However, by the September meeting the damage from the Ukraine crisis to the global economy may become a threat to the US economic expansion. The doves in the FOMC are likely to jump from the hiking bandwagon by then and demand a pause.”

The market is going even further. With 30-year yields dropping and US 5-10s inverting, and only 20bp to go on 2s-10s, and with stocks, gold, and crypto all up, we are now pricing for a policy error and the inevitable rate cuts and new QE that will have to follow. In other words, just as the Fed drives things off a cliff, Mr Market is already pricing in the trampoline at the bottom of it that will take us to even higher market-y highs.

Are markets right about the policy error? Yes. But are they right to ignore all the pain to come and to presume the Fed will do what it always does, and provide them with so much free stuff they look like Smaug the dragon, sleeping under a pile of treasure? Here is where fingers are being crossed, because if an angry, unequal, polarized society finds out it has turned into Japan without any of its former social contract, don’t think politics, and the politics of central banking, can’t change. Then even dragons get toasted.

Which is a segue to China, where yesterday saw a barrage of news that led Chinese, Hong Kong, and US China stocks to surge crazily. Premier Liu He stated the government would ensure markets remain stable, soon stop the aggressive regulation of big tech names, reform and open up, and ease policy as needed; and that was followed by dropping pilot plans for a property tax. So, hallelujah, the CCP called a market bottom!

Are markets right to now switch from bearish bets? Yes. But are they right to ignore all the pain to come and to presume China will do what it always does, and provide them with so much free stuff they look like Smaug the dragon, sleeping under a pile of treasure? No – or only if you keep your fingers crossed and hope the other side is not keeping its crossed in a different way. Chinese is not admitting to its own policy error: but markets are pricing moves to national security, ‘dual circulation’, and a ‘common prosperity’ decrying the “barbaric expansion of capital” are going to be reversed… “because markets”.

Yes, China did not want to see a blow up just before the crucial political meeting this November, and there were already expectations we would see policy tweaks to get a high enough growth figure by end-year. Yes, now the Fed is out of the way, China can cut rates next month (as Brazil just hiked 100bp, by the way, as expected.) However, no, that is NOT the same as presuming China is going to have a Damascene conversion and move back to asset bubbles and inequality. Unlike the US, it sees these as an existential threat, not a staple diet.

We therefore have another contradiction, just as with China’s desire for being a global reserve currency without the prerequisite open capital account, because of the loss of political control it entails. Yet which logic wins on that front every time, despite promises? And so which one might logically win out over US speculators in stocks and Chinese speculators in residential property – albeit not until after November 2022? Even from the US side, not every administration will vacillate between ‘right on’ hawkishness and then enfeebled ‘right, I’m off’ outreach. Yes, the US might fudge a deal so Chinese firms don’t de-list. Yet might that change after the 2022 or 2024 elections? The Republican Party does not even appear to be pretending it will do that deal while keeping its fingers crossed.

The same is true for the Iran nuclear deal, which appears be on, and which perhaps allows the Iran Revolutionary Guards Council to be removed from terrorist watch-lists. The White House is planning a trip to Saudi Arabia now: I don’t think they will get swords this time round, or not in a nice way. UK PM Johnson just beat them to it, with The Independent dubbing his trip: “…an embarrassing and needless quest for oil” – I am not sure about the needless part. It certainly all adds to wild energy volatility: more peace news and some say we could see Brent back in the low 80s; less news and no Russian supply and others say by Q2 and Q3 we are at $130. Meanwhile, Iran is going to leap into LNG, and those who can join dots think this might be how Europe decouples from Russian gas. Those who can join more dots than that wonder how Europe coupling with what many in the Middle East see as their version of Russia is going to play out longer term. And Tehran has never, ever kept its fingers crossed.

Against this backdrop, the LME had another farce where nickel trading re-opened, plunged limit down, and then closed again. We have the ridiculous situation where the market price is still well above any historical norms, and everyone knows it, and yet there are limits to how far it can go down in a day; and we know large players are still shorting it; and that they cannot be allowed to blow up. Normal trading will resume soon, says the LME, with its fingers crossed too. Right. And as Bloomberg opinion tweets: “Commodity traders have largely escaped regulatory scrutiny in the EU despite their potentially significant role in derivatives markets,” quoting the ECB Financial Stability Review from 2017. One wonders what future iterations will say.

On farces, the Aussie jobs number came in at 77.4K vs. an expected 37K despite a collapse in part-time employment to -44.5K. (And recall this all needs to be multiplied by 13 to get US payrolls equivalents.) The RBA really needs to find new reasons not to now hike, it seems.

The Bank of England are out of such excuses, and in what is now partially a war economy are going to hike 25bp again today to take rates to 0.75%, just as British taxes jump too. Policy errors all over, it seems.

So, what to expect more broadly today? Markets ignoring everything actually happening to focus on what they think is going to happen, which involves keeping their fingers crossed when others may be doing the same in a different way.

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia//// NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

BRAZIL

Russia’s freeze on fertilizer will cause extreme damage to powerhouse Brazil for their agricultural products

(zerohedge)

Ag Powerhouse Brazil Could Be Severely Impacted By Russia’s Freeze On Fertilizer

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 10:50 AM

There’s no question in our minds a global food crisis is emerging. The last example is Russia’s freeze on fertilizer exports will complicate agricultural production in Brazil.

Fertilizer costs before Russia invaded Ukraine were already high. The invasion made everything worse as Moscow’s protectionism has crimped exports of the nutrients critical for growing all sorts of farm goods.

No other nation in the world relies on foreign fertilizer than Brazil. According to Bloomberg, the South American country imports more than 85% of its fertilizer demand. Russia is its top supplier, and Belarus provides 28% of the total.

“Restraining fertilizer consumption may hurt crop yields, boost inflation and threaten food security,” Brazilian Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina said this week.

For some context, Brazil has transformed into an agricultural powerhouse over the last two decades. It has become a leading exporter of coffee, sugar, soybeans, manioc, rice, maize, cotton, edible beans, and wheat. The bigger problem is how the fertilizer disruption and soaring prices may result in future harvest declines.

Dwindling food supplies in Brazil may only act as an inflationary pressure for global food prices, possibly rocketing prices to new heights.

Sanctioned Russian fertilizer billionaire, Andrey Melnichenko, warned the Ukraine conflict would result in a world food crisis.

“The events in Ukraine are truly tragic. We urgently need peace. As Russian by nationality, Belarusian by birth, and Ukrainian by blood, I feel great pain and disbelief witnessing the brotherly peoples are fighting and dying,” Melnichenko told Bussiness Insider.

“One of the victims of this crisis will be agriculture and food,” Melnichenko said, adding that the conflict has “already led to soaring prices in fertilizers which are no longer affordable to farmers.”

Melnichenko said global food supply chains were already under pressure from COVID impacts, and “now this will lead to even higher food inflation in Europe and likely food shortages in the world’s poorest countries.”

The fallout from the conflict is rippling worldwide as Brazil could be the latest causality that will only worsen the global food crisis.

Food inflation is not transitory. Before you know, we’ll all be eating cricket burgers at McDonald’s.

END

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.1052 UP .0031 /EUROPE BOURSES //MOSTLY RED (EXCEPT LONDON)

USA/ YEN 118.61 DOWN .260 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3204 UP 0.0065

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 44.33 PTS OR 1.40%

Hang Sang CLOSED UP 1,413.73PTS OR 7.74%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.15% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED MOSTLY RED EXCEPT LONDON

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED EXCEPT LONDON

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 1413.73 PTS OR 7.04%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 44.33 PTS OR 1.40%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.15%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 8890.88 PTS OR 3.46%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1941.95

silver:$25.32-

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 98.21 DOWN 41 CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.20% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.204% DOWN 0 AND 0/10 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.34%// UP 1 in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 1.91 UP 2 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 57 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +0.388% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.52% AND NOW ABOVE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1114 UP .0093 or 93 basis points

USA/Japan: 118.43 DOWN 0.441 OR YEN DOWN 44 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3164 UP 24 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP 46 BASIS pts to 1.2642

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED )..UP 6.3470

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.3592

TURKISH LIRA: 14.75 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.204

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.165% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.452 DOWN 1 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.90 DOWN 12 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 61,38PTS OR 0.84%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 3.74 POINTS OR 0.06%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 109.99PTS OR 0.76%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 10.10PTS OR 0.12%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 285.34 PTS OR 1.17%

WTI Oil price 102.82 12: EST

Brent Oil: 106.76 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE RISES TO: 104.00 UP 5 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE UP BY 5 BASIS PTS )

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.388

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.1095 UP .0074 OR UP 74 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3148 UP .0008 or UP 8 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 118.64 UP 0.227

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2629 DOWN .0059 (CDN dollar UP 59 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 103.80

Brent OIL: 106.98

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.212 UP 2 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.497 up 4 pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.71

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA///USA/ ROUBLE: 103.50 UP 4.5ROUBLES (ROUBLE DOWN 4.5 ROUBLES/USA )//

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 417.66 PTS OR 1.23%

NASDAQ 100 UP 161.81 PTS OR 1.16%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 25.33 DOWN 1.34 PTS OR 5.02%

GLD: 180.89 UP 0.88 PTS OR 0.49%

SLV/ 23.33 UP .22 PTS OR 0.95%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks Go Full Green On St Paddy’s Day Ahead Of Massive OpEx

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 04:01 PM

The post-Powell hangover hit early on St.Paddy’s Day on Ukraine peace talks problems but there was still a bucket full of negative delta to be unwound ahead of tomorrow’s massive op-ex and that was enough to spur dip-buyers to extend yesterday’s gains. Led by Small Caps, but all major US equities soared from around the European Close…

Today’s gains come after 2 days of back-to-back surges in stocks (on track for its best week of the year)… which occurred as the S&P triggered a death-cross (50DMA crosses below 200DMA)…

As Steve Deppe (@SJD10304) points out, ” The S&P 500 hasn’t gained 2%+ on back to back days all that often. “

“But, it managed to do it on 3/15 & 3/16 here in 2022. And it managed to do it on 3/15 and 3/16 in 2000 too. We live in a simulation.”

Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues (with a hawkish shift today as US officials say big gap between sides still), stagflation fears are soaring (today’s Philly Fed saw growth expectations plunge, prices paid soar), COVID cases are on the rise again, China growth concerns persist, and commodity prices are rebounding again.

Let’s see what the panic-BTFD algos say tomorrow after op-ex…

The market is now pricing in rate-hikes to 2.00% in 2022… and then a full rate-cut in 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

And over 2 hikes by the end of 2024…

Source: Bloomberg

That is full policy error pricing as the market is now convinced The Fed will hike into stagflation, guaranteeing a recession, sparking rate-cuts. All of which is perhaps another reason why gold is rebounding today…

Treasuries were mixed today with the long-end underperforming, belly best and short-end flat (5Y -2bps, 30Y +3bps). On the week, the belly is the notable UNDERperformer…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar extended post-Powell losses, tumbling to two-week lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Crytpo was marginally lower today but Bitcoin held above $40k…

Source: Bloomberg

Blinken’s anything but dovish comments on Russia’s Putin ‘war crimes’ and warning China’s Xi of consequences extended the earlier gains on IEA warnings that Russian supply will decline by about a quarter in April, sending oil soaring today with WTI up 9%, from below $95 to over $103…

And finally, Stagflation goes global

Source: Bloomberg

And the market is ignoring it… until tomorrow’s Op-Ex.

END

I)LAST NIGHT /MORNING TRADING

END

AFTERNOON

END

II)usa data

USA housing starts surge to 16 year highs as citizens now believe home ownership will help alleviate rising rents and other costs

(zerohedge)

US Housing Starts Surged To 16 Year High In Feb

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 08:35 AM

After January’s surprise drop in Housing Starts MoM, analysts expected February to see a rebound and vice verse, following Jan’s rise, February was expected to see Permits drop MoM, and that is what we saw with Starts surging 6.8% MoM (better than the +3.8% exp) and Permits dropped 1.9% MoM (better than the -2.4% expected).

Source: Bloomberg

Single-family permits were down -0.5% but multi-family permits tumbled 4.5% MoM…

The surge in Starts was driven by a 5.7% MoM spike in Single-family (from 1.150MM to 1.215MM). Multi-family starts rose 0.8% from 497K to 501K

This pushed Housing Starts to their highest SAAR since June 2006 as Permits pulls back from similar highs…

Source: Bloomberg

This surge in starts comes as homebuilder sentiment for sales six-months ahead tumbles and mortgage rates soar.

END

NY Empire plunges//Philly Fed surges….but Philly Fed expectations plunges//prices paid hit 43 year high

Philly Fed Expectations Plunge As Prices Paid Hit 43 Year High

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 09:07 AM

The mainstream headlines crowed that this morning’s Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey printed 27,4, almost double expectations, but below the surface things were not quite a ‘bullish’ as the headlines sound.

Following Empire Fed’s plunge, Philly Fed surged from 16.0 to 27.4, against expectations of a small drop to 14.5…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest difference between the two surveys… ever…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, bear in mind that while some factors were supportive in the Philly Fed survey, expectations for business in the next six months tumbled back near post-COVID lows while prices paid soared to their highest since 19769…

Source: Bloomberg

If that’s not a stagflation expectation, we don’t know what is.

end

US Manufacturing Accelerates In February As Utilities Slow

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 09:23 AM

Following January’s unexpectedly large jump in US industrial production (driven by Utilities), analysts expected a slowdown in expansion in February and they were right as industrial production rose 0.5% MoM as expected, down from the 1.4% rise in Jan…

Source: Bloomberg

Total industrial production in February was 7.5 percent higher than its year-earlier level, but severe winter weather in February 2021 significantly suppressed industrial activity that month. A more useful comparison shows that the index has advanced a still-strong 4.2 percent since January 2021

Following the 10.4% surge in Jan, Utilities dropped 2.7% in February.

The decrease of 2.7 percent in the output of utilities in February reflected a return to more seasonable weather following a colder-than-average January.

In February, the index for mining was little changed, as a decline in oil and gas extraction was offset by an increase in support activity for oil and gas operations. The index for mining in February was about 7 percent above its level at the beginning of last year but still about 7 percent below its pre-pandemic (February 2020) reading.

President Biden will not be happy!

On the optimistic side, manufacturing production rose 1.2% MoM, better than the +1.0% expected…

Source: Bloomberg

The indexes for durable and nondurable manufacturing moved up 1.3 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively, while the output of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) moved down 0.4 percent. Most major durable and nondurable goods industry groups posted gains. An exception was the output of motor vehicles and parts, which declined 3.5 percent and continued to be restrained by a shortage of electronic components. In February, the indexes for most industry groups were higher than in the beginning of 2021; notable exceptions were the indexes for motor vehicles and parts and for other manufacturing (publishing and logging).

However, Capacity Utilization disappointed expectations with a 77.6% print versus 77.9% exp (but that was up from a revised-lower January print of 77.3%).

end

U.S. unemployment claims drop to 2½-month low of 214,000 as hiring revs up

March 17, 2022 at 8:38 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

Job openings are high and layoffs are low

The numbers: New filings for unemployment benefits fell to a 2½-month low of 214,000 in mid-March, showing that demand for labor is still extremely high as the U.S. economy recovers from the pandemic.

Initial jobless claims declined by 15,000 from a revised 229,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said Thursday.

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast initial jobless claims to total a seasonally adjusted 220,000 in the seven days ended March 12.

Weekly jobless claims now appear on track to approach or even fall below the 200,000 threshold again. They briefly sank to a 52-year low of 188,000 at the end of last year.

Big picture: Job openings are at record highs, and layoffs are at record lows.

The chief problem companies face is finding enough workers during the biggest labor shortage in modern times. Even then, the economy has managed to create an average of 582,000 new jobs a month in a the past three months.

So long as demand for labor is strong, the U.S. economy is likely to keep growing at a steady pace. The biggest risks in the short run are high inflation — exacerbated by the war in Ukraine — and the potential spread of another strain of the coronavirus.

Key details: Raw, or unadjusted, jobless claims fell in more than half the states, including a large decline in New York that reversed a big increase in the previous week.

The only state to post a sizable increase in new unemployment-benefits claims was Michigan.

The number of people already collecting unemployment benefits, meanwhile, declined by 71,000 to 1.42 million in the week ended March 5. That’s a new pandemic low.

These so-called continuing claims, which are reported with a one-week lag, have fallen below pre-crisis levels and are extremely low.

Looking ahead: “Demand for labor is strong, and there are no reasons to believe that this will change any time soon, barring another wave of a new COVID variant,” money market economist Thomas Simons of Jefferies wrote in a note to clients.

“We expect that both initial and continuing claims will be biased toward heading lower in the weeks ahead.”

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

iiia) USA inflation//SHIPPING commentaries//LOG JAMS//

end

iiib) USA economic stories

Very important

Mish Shedlock on the collapsing yieldcruve

(zerohedge)

Yield Curve Dramatically Transitions From A Steep-Front To Back-End-Flatness

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 02:23 PM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The yield curve is nearly flat as a pancake between three years and ten years. The curve has two inversions.

Yield Curve data from New York Fed, chart by Mish

On Wednesday, the Fed hiked interest rates for the first time since 2018.

The lead chart is as of the close yesterday. Yellow highlight are inversion spots.

The hike was 25 basis points BPs (a quarter-point hike) as widely expected.

Yield Curve Comments

The front end of the curve is as steep as it’s going to get. Every hike will flatten the front end.
The Effective Fed Funds rate rose by a quarter point to about 0.33 percent from 0.08 percent.
At one point on Wednesday, the spread between the 5-year and 10-year notes inverted. The 5-10 spread closed at 1 basis point.
The 7-10 spread is inverted by 3 BPs.
The 20-30 spread is inverted by 10 BPs.
The 5-10 spread is 1 BP.
The 3-10 spread is 5 BPs.
The 2-10 spread is only 24 BPs
The 3-30 spread is only 32 BPs

Inversion means a shorter-term note has a higher yield than a longer-term note.

Economists watch the 2-10 spread as a recession indicator.

Treasury Yields December 2021 to Date

Yield Curve data from New York Fed, chart by Mish

This is a very flat curve between 3 and 30 years and is poised to get flatter as the Fed hikes.

Yield Curve Spreads Since January 2021

Yield Curve data from New York Fed, chart and calculations by Mish

Chart Notes

Less than a year ago the 2-10 spread was 159 BPs. With only a single hike, the spread collapsed to 24 BPs.
Unless the 10-year bond further sells off (yields rise), another quarter-point hike will flatten if not invert the 2-10 spread.

Fed Stops Hiking When 2-10 Inverts

History shows the Fed generally stops hiking as soon as the 2-10 spread inverts for longer than a month.

The Fed has hiked up to the point of causing a 2-10 inversion, but then it stops. Greenspan managed an additional hike or two one time.

You have to go back to the Volcker Fed in 1978 to find a major exception. Powell is no Volcker.

Let those thoughts sink in as you ponder the Fed’s dot plot of rate hike expectations.

Dot Plot

Fed Dot Plot of rate hike expectations. Chart from FOMC, annotations by Mish.

The median fed expectation for the end of 2022 is a total of 7 quarter-point hikes in 2022 and 3 or more hikes in 2023.

Not Gonna Happen!

Heading into the FOMC meeting there was discussion of the Fed steepening the curve via very hawkish balance sheet reduction.

See Beware of a Very Aggressive Steepening of the Yield Curve by the Fed

I kept an open mind on this but had my doubts.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NrZWxldG9uX2xvYWRpbmdfMTMzOTgiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoiY3RhIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19zcGFjZV9jYXJkIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9mZiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1503843430828453892&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fyield-curve-dramatically-transitions-steep-front-back-end-flatness&sessionId=fb2b1f14783feeaab97e2dd701dae85df04736d1&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px

My doubts are now resolved.

Hawkish Fed? No, This Was a Dovish Fed Meeting

Yesterday, I commented Hawkish Fed? No, This Was a Dovish Fed Meeting

The Fed penciled in 7 rate hikes this year and 4 more next year. Who believes this?
What we have is a Punt by the Fed.
I am quite certain the Fed does not want to upset the stock market or housing. You can see it in the reaction today, albeit from very oversold conditions.

Economy Far Weaker Than Most Think

This economy is far weaker than most believe. I side with Steph Pomboy on this.

These Tweets are in reference to Fed Chair Jerome Powel telling everyone multiple times after the meeting how “strong” the economy is.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NrZWxldG9uX2xvYWRpbmdfMTMzOTgiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoiY3RhIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19zcGFjZV9jYXJkIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9mZiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1504165272126726147&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fyield-curve-dramatically-transitions-steep-front-back-end-flatness&sessionId=fb2b1f14783feeaab97e2dd701dae85df04736d1&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-2&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NrZWxldG9uX2xvYWRpbmdfMTMzOTgiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoiY3RhIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19zcGFjZV9jYXJkIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9mZiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1504170341639331840&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fyield-curve-dramatically-transitions-steep-front-back-end-flatness&sessionId=fb2b1f14783feeaab97e2dd701dae85df04736d1&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px

Stock Market Crash and Recession Anyway

As concerned as the Fed might be about inflation and an inverted yield curve, they are clearly more concerned about a stock market selloff and causing a recession by QT or hiking.

The Fed can try to tiptoe its way to a soft landing but it will get in no more than three more hikes in my estimation, and more likely only two.

Most People Have No Idea How Much Stocks are Likely to Crash

I stick with my call Most People Have No Idea How Much Stocks are Likely to Crash QT or not.

Demand destruction from that crash will lead to a recession (if not before).

* * *

end

iv)swamp stories

HUGE EXCLUSIVE: British Operative Inserted Himself into President Trump’s White House to Tarnish Trump and Derail the 2020 Election Audit

Inbox

Sticky fingers …

HUGE EXCLUSIVE: British Operative Inserted Himself into President Trump’s White House to Tarnish Trump and Derail the 2020 Election Audit

KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES

The King Report March 17 2022 Issue 6720

Independent View of the News

China tries to calm markets by pledging support for economy
China’s government tried Wednesday to reassure jittery investors by promising support for real estate and technology companies after regulatory crackdowns caused stock prices to plunge. Regulators should issue market-friendly policies to “invigorate the economy,” officials said at a Cabinet meeting led by Vice Premier Liu He, President Xi Jinping’s top economic adviser, the official Xinhua News Agency said…
https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-seeks-calm-markets-promise-082044996.html

Nasdaq’s Golden Dragon China Index closed +32.93%!

Zelensky, Russian minister Lavrov signal optimism in peace talks
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday said peace talks with Russia were starting to “sound more realistic” as Russia voiced a similar sentiment…
    On Russia’s side, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told RBC News that “neutral status is now being seriously discussed along, of course, with security guarantees… Now this very thing is being discussed in negotiations – there are absolutely specific formulations which in my view are close to agreement,” he added, noting that the talks had not been easy but there was “some hope of reaching a compromise.“…  https://news.yahoo.com/zelensky-russian-minister-lavrov-signal-113646312.html

Kremlin says Sweden, Austria could be models for Ukraine neutrality. Ukraine rejects the Russian proposal – AFP

Ukraine REJECTS Russian peace talks proposal to become ‘neutral’ like Sweden – and demands guarantees that international forces will ‘prevent attacks’ in future
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10618473/Russias-Lavrov-says-neutrality-Ukraine-seriously-discussed.html

Ukraine and Russia draw up neutrality plan to end war 10:06 ET
Fifteen-point draft deal would involve Kyiv renouncing Nato membership ambitions in return for security guarantees – Ukraine and Russia have made significant progress on a tentative 15-point peace plan including a ceasefire and Russian withdrawal if Kyiv declares neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces, according to three people involved in the talks…
https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1?shareType=nongift

ESMs and stocks soared due to the above stories. Also contributing to the early rally on Wednesday: Weird Wednesday upward bias for expiry; VIX Fix expiration; and the notion that stocks will rally after the Fed hikes rate.

On the negative side, bonds declined, and US February retails sales were disappointing.

February Retail Sales rose 0.3% m/m; 0.4% was expected. Sales ex-Autos increased only 0.2% m/m; 0.9% was consensus.  Sales ex-Autos and Gas DECLINED 0.4%; +0.4% was expected. Due to rabid inflation, gasoline sales surged 5.3% m/m. Non-store retailer (Internet) sales tumbled 3.7% m/m.  Control Group Sales, which is used to calculate GDP, sank 1.2%: +0.4% was consensus.  This will force economists to reduce their Q1 GDP estimates.

Zero Hedge: Suggesting that these numbers are all bunk, the unadjusted retail sales continued to slide, and after a record gap in January between the two series, in February the gap got even bigger, suggesting that the only “growth” in US spending is due to some Commerce Department seasonal adjustment calculator.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/retail-sales-miss-q1-gdp-may-contract-after-unexpected-slide-control-group

@MikaelSarwe: Nominal retail sales since Mar 2021: +5.6%; Real retail sales since Mar 2021: -6.5%. That’s inflation doing its dirty work.   https://twitter.com/MikaelSarwe/status/1504101673651875843

In an address to Congress on Wednesday morning, Zelensky made an emotional and graphic appeal for more aid and urged The Big Guy to man up.

In address to Congress, Zelenskyy urges US to ‘do more,’ invokes 9/11, Pearl Harbor
“We need you to do more,” Zelenskyy said in a video address to Congress. “I call on you right now.” The foreign leader spoke from Kyiv, which remains under relentless Russian missile attack as the invasion reaches the three-week mark. “Just remember,” Zelenskyy said about the tragic September 11, 2001, and Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, attacks on U.S. soil…
https://justthenews.com/government/diplomacy/congress-address-zelenskyy-expected-thanks-us-support-press-more-military

@cspan: President Zelensky: “I’m addressing President Biden. You are the leader of the nation. I wish you to be the leader of the world. Being the leader of the world means to be the leader of peace.”

@SebastianAFP: CNN apologizing to viewers for not being able to warn them that the video compilation played by Zelensky to Congress would be so graphic. I think this was Zelensky’s point: Americans need to see what war looks like, without the comfort blanket.

Biden reportedly mulling sending tank-destroying kamikaze drones to Ukraine https://t.co/aqdevW2idU

@ChadPergram: Stefanik: Ukraine needs those MiGs and they need them yesterday

U.S. Senate unanimously condemns Putin as war criminal https://t.co/zkCPkWus4q

ESMs peaked at 10:16 ET. After a 23-handle retreat, ESMs and stocks went inert. At 12:45 ET, ESMs and stocks fell on this: Ukraine’s Podolyak: FT Story Only Represents Russian Position – BBG

Shortly after the above headline appeared, Biden announced the US would send drones, “anti-aircraft systems”, and “anti-armor systems” to Ukraine.

Biden details US military aid for Ukraine following Zelenskyy’s appeal to Congress
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-detail-military-aid-ukraine-zelenskyys-appeal-congress/story

ESMs bottomed at 13:10 ET. After a modest bounce they went inert as traders awaited the Fed.

The Fed hiked rates 25bps to a range of 0.25% to 0.50%. It will discuss balance sheet reduction at a coming meeting. Most Fed officials see 7 rate hikes for 2022.   The median Fed official sees Fed Funds above neutral in 2023. Fed Statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20220316a.htm

ESMs initially sank 27-handlesx on the release of the Fed Communique. ESMs quickly rebounded 17 handles; but selling reappeared. ESMs and stocks sank to session lows. The 10-year hit 2.23%. The US 5-30-year yield curve fell to 30bps, the flattest curve since 2018, the last time the Fed hiked rates.  https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1504157182161571849

@lisaabramowicz1: The gap between 5-year and 10-year Treasuries is the narrowest since 2007. (It latter inverted) https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1504158223196168196

Here’s what changed in the new Fed statement
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/16/heres-what-changed-in-the-new-fed-statement.html

@KobeissiLetter: The Fed officially went from there is no inflation, to inflation is “transitory”, to inflation should drop to 2.5% in 2022, to inflation should drop to 4.3% in 2022.

@AndreasSteno: The Fed wants to go above “neutral” in 2023 and 2024 by 40 bps. This is about as aggressive as it can be from the Fed.

It was up to Jerome Powell to save the day for bulls!

Powell Prepared Remarks Highlights
We are strongly committed to our goals of maximum employment and price stability
We expect to start reducing our balance sheet at a coming meeting
The labor market continues to strengthen and is very tight
Wages are rising at the fastest pace in many years
Inflation remains well above our long-term goal of 2%
No one knows with any certainty where the economy will be a year from now
The committee discussed balance sheet reduction
We are aware of upward risks on inflation and inflation expectations

ESMs, stocks, and bonds fell to new lows during the initial stages of Powell’s prepared remarks. ESMs and stocks bounced sharply as Powell finished reading his prepared remarks. Bonds did not budge.

Powell Q&A Highlights
“The risk of a recession into next year is not elevated”; all signs show a strong economy.
I expect inflation to remain high until the middle of the year. It’s a highly uncertain environment.
“Every meeting is a live meeting. And we’re going to be looking at evolving conditions. If we do conclude that it would be appropriate to move more quickly to remove accommodation, then we’ll do so.”
Fed balance sheet shrinkage could commence in May.

By 14:47 ET, ESMs had soared 54 handles in 12 minutes even though Powell remained more hawkish than expected. Here’s why: Ukrainian, Russian presidents may hold talks in coming days: Ukrainian presidential advisor   http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/20220317/3bda696f1ca04911a041fbcbdce12bb1/c.html

By 14:55 ET, ESMs had rallied 67.00 points from their Powell press low on hope of a peace deal. At the time, Fed SWAPs showed about 75bs of rate hikes over the next two FOMC Meetings. By 15:25 ET, ESMs were 85 handles above the Powell low. After a 10-minute pause, ESMs soared into the close.

BBG’s @lisaabramowicz1: The selloff in U.S. investment-grade bonds is deepening, with yields rising to the highest since March 2020. While this is less dramatic than the credit seizure two years ago, it has been an accelerating grind higher with both benchmark rates and relative yields.
https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1503650630145126403

Scandal rocks Japanese finance as SMBC Nikko staff are arrested on allegations of market manipulation – The four employees are alleged to have used SMBC Nikko’s proprietary trading desk to put in large buy orders for certain stocks before the market close in Tokyo. The alleged aim was to prop up prices before the brokerage sold large chunks of those companies’ shares outside the open market for institutional clients in what are known as block offers. According to prosecutors, such actions amount to market manipulation…
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/banking/scandal-rocks-japanese-finance-as-smbc-nikko-staff-are-arrested

As you know, we have been inveighing against blatant market manipulation, particularly near the end of each session and during expiry week, for many years. Bought politicians and regulators allow this abuse.

Goldman CEO walks back claim it’s not Wall St.’s job to ‘ostracize Russia’ https://trib.al/qZEyxLq

@greg_price11: BIDEN: “I bet everybody knows somebody…that in an intimate relationship, what happened was the guy takes a revealing picture of his naked friend, or whatever, in a compromising position and then blackmails.” (Ladies & Gentleman, the POTUS! Not everyone knows a ‘Hunter’!)
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1504167589760704527
    @jason_meister: The trouble we are in is incalculable.
    @bhweingarten: To the people itching to get further involved in the Russo-Ukrainian War: Is this the commander in chief you want to roll into a potential nuclear exchange with?
    @James56487175: Is it called the Hunter Biden act?

Now-deleted Kamala Harris tweet claimed US is supporting Ukraine ‘in defense of the NATO alliance’ – Harris said the same thing over the weekend while speaking to House Democrats
Those remarks prompted the White House to alter the transcript from the event… (Ukraine not in NATO)
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kamala-harris-again-says-us-is-supporting-ukraine-in-defense-of-the-nato-alliance
  Kremlin says Biden’s comments on Putin “unacceptable and unforgivable,” after the US President called Putin a “war criminal” – TASS

Today – After the volatility on Weird Wednesday, stocks are due to range trade. However, headlines about Ukraine-Russia peace talks could impact trading at any moment. After the encouraging headlines and stories yesterday, the market expects a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. If talks breakdown, look out below! ESMs are +6.25 at 20:30 ET.

Expected economic data: Feb Housing Starts 1.7m, Permits 185m; Mar Phil Fed Business Outlook 14.8; Initial Jobless Claims 220k, Continuing Claims 1.48m; Feb Industrial Production 0.5% m/m, Mfg Production 1.0%, Capacity Utilization 77.9%

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4445; 100-day MA: 4554; 150-day MA: 4517; 200-day MA: 4468
DJIA 50-day MA: 34,617; 100-day MA: 35,186; 150-day MA: 35,090; 200-day MA 34,975

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4153.02 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4547.45 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4393.37 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4246.57 triggers a sell signal

The Bankrupt Colonialist – What kind of peace could Russia afford?
War is rarely a good investment. Putin has acted for reasons of political and not economic opportunism. The prospects for any territory “liberated” by Russia is bleak. They will not prosper and will remain cut off from the international economy. To the extent that people stay they will have to be subsidized for all their needs while there will be little economic activity… https://samf.substack.com/p/the-bankrupt-colonialist

Trump claims he’s ‘surprised’ Putin invaded Ukraine, thought troop buildup was a bluff https://t.co/RczlWDF8bO

Trump won in 2016, and maybe in 2020, because he is on the same side as most Americans on the biggest issues. However, his character and judgement, especially on staffing and administration, are abysmal.

@nytimes: The administration of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo failed to publicly account for the deaths of about 4,100 nursing home residents in New York during the pandemic, according to an audit released on Tuesday by the state comptroller. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/15/nyregion/nursing-home-deaths-cuomo-covid.html

Secret Service says it doesn’t have Hunter Biden emails from some years, his laptop says otherwise
Just the News found on laptop seized by FBI dozens of emails in which presidential son coordinated travel, corresponded with agents on his protective detail
https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/secret-service-says-it-doesnt-have-hunter-biden-emails

Boston BLM leader, husband charged with fraud, conspiracy in federal indictment https://t.co/g6KFzud5bq

END

Let us close with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter interviewing

Well that is all for today. I will see you FRIDAY night

douglas cundey	10:01 PM (1 hour ago)
to Chris, William, Bill, rkirby, me

Robert Hryniak	5:12 PM (1 minute ago)
to

Robert Hryniak	10:13 AM (1 minute ago)
to

Milan Sabioncello	7:41 AM (12 minutes ago)
to me

Robert Hryniak	5:15 PM (4 minutes ago)
to