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comex notices/

March: JPMorgan stopped/total issued 462/827

EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: MARCH 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,942.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/17/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 03/21/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

072 C GOLDMAN 11
104 C MIZUHO 17
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 46
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 110
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 64
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 19
661 C JP MORGAN 827 462
709 C BARCLAYS 76
737 C ADVANTAGE 7
905 C ADM 15

TOTAL: 827 827

MONTH TO DATE: 11,484

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR Mar. CONTRACT 827 NOTICE(S) FOR 82700 OZ (2.5723 TONNES)

total notices so far: 11,484 contracts for 1,148,400 oz (35.7220 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

21 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 105,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 10,458 : for 52,290,000 oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $13.55

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//

OF 11.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.44 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.37

AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.217 MILLION OZ

INTO THE SLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 550.288 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1310 CONTRACTS TO 158,366 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE $0.72 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.72) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT SOME SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN OF 2452 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 42.860 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 60,000 OZ //NEW STANDING 52.540 MILLION OZ // V) VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS : —390

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR:

TOTAL CONTACTS for 14 days, total contracts: : 28,370 contracts or 141.8 million oz OR 10.128 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (2026 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 28,370 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 141.8 MILLION OZ

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 141.8 MILLION OZ//THIS IS GOING TO BE A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE MONTH AND MOST LIKELY WILL SET A RECORD FOR ANY MONTH

RESULT: WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1310 WITH OUR $0.72 GAIN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1142 CONTRACTS( 1142 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR. OF 42.860 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 60,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 52.480 MILLION OZ// /// .. WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 2842 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 14.21 MILLION OZ WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE.

WE HAD 21 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 105,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1124 CONTRACTS TO 612,766 AND FURTHER FROM OUR NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: –193 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $33.50//COMEX GOLD TRADING/THURSDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR HUMONGOUS SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MARCH AT 14.818 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 700 OZ//NEW STANDING 36.167 TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $33.50 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD AN SMALL GAIN OF 240 OI CONTRACTS (0.745 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 1364 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 612,959.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 433, WITH 931 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1364 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 433 CONTRACTS OR 1.346 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1364) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1124,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 240 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MARCH. AT 14.818 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 700 OZ//NEW STANDING 36.167 TONNES /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ///. ,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

MARCH

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :

94,676 CONTRACTS OR 9,467,600 OR 294.48 TONNES 14 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 676 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 294.48TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 294.48/3550 x 100% TONNES 8.28% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 294.48 TONNES INITIAL( THIS WILL PROBABLY BE A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE MONTH. LATER THIS MONTH WE WILL SURPASS NOV 21, THE ALL TIME RECORD MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 1310 CONTRACTS TO 158,366 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 4 1/2 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 1142 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 1142 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1142 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1700 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1142 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 2452 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12.26 MILLION OZ,

OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.72 GAIN IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 36.03 PTS OR 1.12% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 88.88 PTS OR 0.41 % /The Nikkei closed UP 174.54 PTS or 0.65% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.66% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.3614 /Oil UP TO 103.96 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 107.10 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED // ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3614. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3724: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER//

A)NORTH KOREA/

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SURPRISING 1124 CONTRACTS TO 612,766 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN OF $33.50 IN GOLD PRICING THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP (1364 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1364 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , & FEB. 0 APRIL:1364 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1364 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 240 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1364 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS OF 1124 CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $33.50.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR (36.167),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.167 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE $33.50) BUT THEY WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAVE REGISTERED A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 0.7465 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR (36.167 TONNES)…

WE HAD –155 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 240 CONTRACTS OR 24000 OZ OR 0.7465 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 167,928 ///poor

Confirmed volume yesterday: 190,968 contracts poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAR ’22 COMEX GOLD //MARCH 18

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	5980.01 oz Int. Delaware Brinks 176 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	98,125.166 oz Brinks Manfra
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	287,397.78 oz Brinks JPMorgan 6,000 kilobars Manfra
No of oz served (contracts) today	827 notice(s)82700 OZ 2.5723 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	144 contracts 14,400 oz 0.4479 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	11,484 notices 1,148,400 OZ 35.7200 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

For today:

dealer deposits 2

i) Into Brinks: 16,011.198 oz

ii) Into Manfra: 82,113.968

total dealer deposit 98,125.166 oz

No dealer withdrawal 0

3 customer deposits

i) Into JPMORGAN: 192,906.000 OZ (6,000 KILOBARS= 6 TONNES)

ii) Into Brinks customer account: 80,441.802 oz

iii) Into Manfra: 14,049.987 iz

total deposit: 287,397.78 oz

total gold deposits in tonnage: 11.991 tonnes

2 customer withdrawal

i) Out of Int Delaware: 321.510 oz 10 kilobars

ii) out of Brinks: 5658,500 oz

total withdrawals: 5980.01 oz

ADJUSTMENTS: 1

brinks..//dealer to customer//204.52 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH.

For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 971 contracts having LOST 10

We had 3 notices filed yesterday so we finally lost 7 contracts or 7000 oz will not stand at the comex as these guys were EFP’d over to London.

Our banker friends have run out of gold metal over here.

April saw a loss of 13,358 contracts down to 241,550.

May saw a GAIN of 94 contracts to stand at 4332

June saw a GAIN of 11,429 contracts up to 297,743 contracts

We had 827 notice(s) filed today for 82700 oz FOR THE MAR 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 827 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 827 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 462 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR /2021. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11,484) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (MAR: 971 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 827 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,162,800 OZ OR 36.167 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of mar.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:

No of notices filed so far (11,484) x 100 oz+ (971) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (827} x 100 oz} which equals 1,162,800 oz standing OR 36.167 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of MAR.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 36.167 TONNES (A WHOPPER FOR A MAR (NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

191,133,764.7, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

123,963.792 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.86 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

243,923.704, oz JPM No 2 7.58 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged Brinks/27,96 TONNES

12,249,333 oz International Delaware: 0..3810 tonnes

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold: 1,543,044.471 oz 47.99 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIG GOLD AT THE COMEX: 34,184.979.751 OZ (1063.29TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 16,500,836.02 OZ (513.24 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,684,143.725 OZ (550.05 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 16,141,099.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 502.05 tonnes

END

MAR 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//MARCH 18

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	105,354.63 oz Brinks
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)	21CONTRACT(S) 105,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	50 contracts (250,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	10,458 contracts 52,290,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 0 deposits into the customer account

total deposit: nil oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 180.228 million oz/342.876 million =52.54% of comex

ii) Comex withdrawals: 1

A) Out of Brinks: 105,354.630 oz

total withdrawal 105,354.630 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 93.411 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 342.876 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MARCH

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MARCH OI: 71, HAVING LOST 52 CONTRACTS FROM THURSDAY.

WE HAD 64 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY, SO WE GAINED 12 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 60,000 OZ WILL STAND

FOR DELIVERY OVER HERE AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO BE EFP’D TO LONDON.

APRIL HAD A 4 CONTRACT LOSS// CONTRACTS FALL TO 610

MAY HAD A GAIN OF 1218 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 120,407 contracts

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 21 for 105,000 oz

Comex volumes: 34,808// est. volume today//weak/

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 42,170 contracts (poor )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 10,458 x 5,000 oz = 52,290,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR (71) and the number of notices served upon today 21 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the MAR./2021 contract month: 10,458 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR (71) – number of notices served upon today (21) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month equates 52,540,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.55 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RETS AT 1073.44 TONES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $33.50: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.61 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.44 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.50//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.83 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.16 TONNES

MARCH 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $22.75, HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//STRANGE: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.16 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.54 TONNES

MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.55: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.06 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.28 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.85//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.64 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.34 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $46.10: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 8.42 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.70 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.28 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.22 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.95: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.84 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.22 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80//A MONSTER CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.38 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $42.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD UP $17.35//A HUGE CHANGE AT THE GLD: 5.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD// IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $6.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD UP $29.50: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP 414.60 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.70 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $27.20 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.50 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD IVNETORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.48 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1074.44 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.217 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/ WITH SILVER UP 72 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.049 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLVV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 548.071 MILLION OZ

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 56 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 462,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.560 MLLION O

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.022 MILLION OZ

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY; STRANGE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.125 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.022 MILLIONOZ

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.174 MILLION OZ OF FAKE SILVER.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 88 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.217 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS A 548.071 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.32 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 198,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP $1.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.052 MILLION OZ//

FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 546.052 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.510 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.052 MILLION OZ/

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ

FEB 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 350,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.017 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.227 MILLION OZ

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.402 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.210 MILLION OZ/

FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLIONOZ

FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ//

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.235 MILLION OZ INTO THES LV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ///

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 550.288 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

END

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James RICKARDS/

-END-

LAWRIE WILLIAMS:

-END-

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Russia will not sell one oz of their gold. They will wait for the USA dollar to collapse

(Spence/Bloomberg/GATA)

Can Russia sell its huge gold pile, or put ruble on a gold standard?

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-03-17 11:54Section: Daily Dispatches

By Eddie Spence
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, March 16, 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-16/the-140-billion-question-can-russia-sell-its-huge-gold-pile

Russia spent years building a giant stash of gold, an asset that central banks can turn to during a crisis. But any attempt to sell it will now be a challenge just when it’s needed most.

Bank of Russia expanded its gold reserves almost sixfold since the mid-2000s, creating the world’s fifth-biggest stockpile that’s valued at about $140 billion. It’s the type of asset it could sell to shore up the ruble, which has plunged as global economies isolate Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

Doing so will be difficult. Sanctions forbid U.S., U.K. and European Union institutions from doing business with Russia’s central bank. Traders and banks are wary of buying the country’s bullion indirectly or using other currencies out of fear of reputational damage or falling foul of penalties. And senators in Washington want secondary sanctions on anyone buying or selling Russian gold.

“This is why they bought their gold. It was for a situation just like this,” said Fergal O’Connor, a lecturer at Cork University Business School. “But if no one will trade it with you, it doesn’t matter.”

Moscow may need to look east to central banks in nations like India or China to sell gold or secure loans using it, according to CPM Group Managing Partner Jeff Christian, who has followed precious metals since the 1970s.

“They could pick it up at a discount to the market,” Christian said in an interview from New York. Russia could also sell via the Shanghai Gold Exchange, where it has commercial banks as members, though any sales would likely be small, he said.

Still, a move by a bipartisan group of U.S. senators to further hinder gold transactions may deter banks in places like China and India from buying or lending against Russia’s bullion — and Beijing wants to avoid being impacted by U.S. sanctions over the war. That’s further reducing Russia’s options.

The Bank of Russia didn’t reply to a request for comment.

In another example of how the West is targeting Russia’s gold trade, the London Bullion Market Association and the CME Group Inc. suspended the country’s refineries from their accredited lists, amounting to a ban on new Russian bars entering the key London and U.S. markets.

The LBMA’s suspension of refineries has restricted countries’ access to the market before. After it suspended Kyrgyzstan’s state refinery last year, the country had to ask Switzerland if one of its refineries could process Kyrgyz gold for its central bank so that it could be accepted on the global market, said people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified.

At least one Swiss refinery declined to do so on worries of being penalized by the LBMA, one of the people said. The Kyrgyz central bank didn’t specifically comment on the matter.

Other countries have also turned to gold, or tried to, when facing sanctions. Dictator Moammar Qaddafi sold a share of Libya’s reserves to pay troops during an uprising, according to former central bank Governor Farhat Bengdara. And a U.S. indictment against Turkey’s Halkbank in 2019 described how Iranian funds there were converted to gold, exported to Dubai and then sold for cash.

Venezuela has fought to access its gold stored in the Bank of England’s vaults as the U.K. recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido as president. The BOE is a popular place for central banks to keep their bullion due to its location within the London market.

Former President Hugo Chavez had already repatriated much of Venezuela’s gold. Bank of Russia’s gold is stored domestically, according to its 2020 annual report.

If Russia gets desperate, it could sell bullion domestically to buy rubles, Citigroup Inc. said. If done at a fixed price, that would be tantamount to an internal gold standard.

“If things get worse, you could basically re-anchor to a pile of gold,” Credit Suisse Group AG strategist Zoltan Pozsar said on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast. “You need an anchor in situations like this.”

END

Interesting: Russian citizens have $213 billion stashed in Swiss bank accounts

(Reuters/GATA)

Russians have up to $213 billion stashed in Swiss banks

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-03-17 12:16Section: Daily Dispatches

By Oliver Hirt and Brenna Hughes Neghaiwi
Reuters
Thursday, March 17, 2022

ZURICH — Switzerland’s secretive banks hold up to $213 billion of Russian wealth, the country’s financial industry association estimates, as sanctions on Russia give a rare glimpse inside Swiss vaults.

The Swiss Bankers Association estimated that the banks hold between 150 billion and 200 billion Swiss francs ($213 billion) of Russian client money in offshore accounts.

This indicates that the extent of wealthy Russians’ business with banks in Switzerland, the world’s biggest centre for offshore wealth, is far more extensive than the on-balance-sheet exposures several of its financial firms have begun to detail. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russians-have-up-213-billion-stashed-offshore-swiss-banks-2022-03-1

END

We brought this commentary to you yesterday, but it is worth repeating

(Steve Goldstein/MarketWatch/gata)

Central banks seen moving out of dollars and into gold and durable commodities

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-03-17 12:56Section: Daily Dispatches

Gold at $10,000? Death of the 40-Year Bull market in bonds? What’s Next for the Global Financial System after Russia’s Central Bank Gets Cancelled?

By Steve Goldstein
Marketwatch.com, New York
Thursday, March 17, 2022

The shockwaves are still being felt by the incredible Western sanctions that have rendered the $630 billion in reserves the Russian central bank accumulated virtually unusable. Can the current dollar-centered global financial system last if money can be summarily cancelled?

Arthur Hayes, a former emerging markets trader and co-founder of the BitMEX trading platform, argues that central banks will choose, instead of dollars, to load up on either gold, storable grains like wheat, or storable commodities like oil and copper.”

In essence, the largest surplus countries’ fiat currencies will implicitly grow their gold or commodity backing,” he writes, saying gold could rise beyond $10,000 per ounce.

Luke Gromen, publisher of Forest For The Trees and a long-time dollar bear, said that shift had been happening even before the sanctions.

In a podcast with Grant Williams, Gromen said that over the last eight years central banks have bought about $260 billion worth of gold, compared to $60 billion in Treasurys.

“So there’s been this very slow but steady and recently accelerating move away from this dollar system that broke in 2005, through 2008 to this system that looks a lot like what was proposed by [John Maynard] Keynes 80 years ago,” he says. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-at-10-000-death-of-the-40-year-bull-market-in-bonds-whats-next-for-the-global-financial-system-after-russias-central-bank-gets-cancelled-11647512679

* * *

END

A very important weekend reading material

Alasdair Macleod..

Alasdair Macleod: The evolution of credit

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2022-03-17 13:05Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, March 17, 2022

After 51 years from the end of the Bretton Woods Agreement, the system of fiat currencies appears to be moving toward a crisis point for the U.S. dollar as the international currency. The battle over global energy, commodity, and grain supplies is the continuation of an intensifying financial war between the dollar and the renminbi and rouble.

It is becoming clear that the scale of an emerging industrial revolution in Asia is in stark contrast with Western decline, a population ratio of 87 to 13. The dollar’s role as the sole reserve currency is not suited for this reality.

Commentators speculate that the current system’s failings require a global reset. They think in terms of it being organised by governments, when the governments’ global currency system is failing. Beholden to Keynesian macroeconomics, the common understanding of money and credit is lacking as well.

This article puts money, currency, and credit and their relationships in context. It points out that the credit in an economy is far greater than officially recorded by money supply figures and it explains how relatively small amounts of gold coin can stabilise an entire credit system.

It is the only lasting solution to the growing fiat money crisis, and it is within the power of at least some central banks to implement gold coin standards by mobilising their reserves. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-evolution-of-credit?gmrefcode=gata

end

Biggest commodities markets are starting to seize up

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2022-03-18 16:42 Section: Daily Dispatches

Don’t worry — governments and central banks will always be ready to short the monetary metals.

* * *

By Alex Longley
Bloomberg News
via Crain’s Chicago Business
Friday, March 18, 2022

It’s getting harder to deal in some of the world’s most important commodities as everything from geopolitical turmoil to exchange snafus prompt traders to rush for the exits, rapidly draining liquidity.

Prices of materials like crude, gas, wheat and metals have become alarmingly erratic as a gulf emerges between buyers and sellers who are facing big financing strains. Markets have been roiled on fears about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine constraining commodities flows, though in many cases rallies were quickly followed by a drop in prices.

The London Metal Exchange’s embarrassing weeklong suspension of nickel trading is an example of a market grinding to a halt after extreme price moves. Liquidity is nonexistent as some dealers try to close positions amid a glitchy reopening of trade in the critical metal.

The volatility is particularly difficult to navigate because some moves appear to defy fundamentals, with hedge funds exiting long-term bullish bets just as supply looks the tightest in years. Merchants are finding it harder to snap up any cheap cargoes because of huge margin calls and credit line caps.

“Volatility as an asset class is enormous now, and on top of that you have some serious operational issues,” said Ilia Bouchouev, a Pentathlon Investments partner and adjunct professor at New York University. “It’s a vicious loop where volatility forces companies to reduce positions, which means what’s left in the market is forced trading. That in turn contributes to even more volatility.”

Ructions from the Ukraine war have been compounded by a historic nickel short squeeze. The LME suspended trading as prices surged 250% to a record, canceling almost $4 billion of transactions.

That caused uproar among investors who stood to profit from bullish bets prior to last week’s closure — and snags with the reopening have hardly improved the mood. Many previously bullish investors are now in a long queue of sellers enduring sharp price drops while they wait for buyers.

By late Thursday, almost $3.3 billion of nickel was on offer at the limit-down price, but there wasn’t a single bid on the LME’s order book. Just two trades took place that day in the electronic market. The illiquidity is a worry for consumers who use nickel in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/economy/commodities-markets-hit-geopolitical-turmoil-exchange-snafus

end

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES/

special thanks to Doug C for sending this to us:

LME: The World’s Biggest Commodities Markets Are Starting to Seize Up – Bloomberg

Inbox

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-18/the-world-s-biggest-commodities-markets-are-starting-to-seize-up?srnd=premium

The World’s Biggest Commodities Markets Are Starting to Seize Up

Buying and selling is becoming much harder as liquidity slumps Traders are exiting key commodities amid wild price swings

Alex LongleyMarch 18, 2022, 11:10 AM EDT

Oil Climbs Back Above $100 on Russia-Ukraine UncertaintyHow Russia-China Relations Could Impact Energy Market

end

NICKEL UPDATE

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING TODAY

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.3614

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3734

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 88.88 PTS OR 1.89%

2. Nikkei closed UP 174.54 PTS 0.65%

3. Europe stocks ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 98.37/Euro FALLS TO 1.1037

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.208/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 119.01/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 103.96 and Brent: 107.10

3f Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN -SHORE CLOSED UP// OFF- SHORE DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.0.359%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 1.89% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 1.30%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.63: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.63

3k Gold at $1939.20 silver at: 25.27 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1.90/100 in roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 104.60

3m oil into the 103 dollar handle for WTI and 107 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 119.01 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9351– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0321 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.140 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.438 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.82

Rally Fizzles As Futures Slide Ahead Of $3.5 Trillion OpEx

FRIDAY, MAR 18, 2022 – 08:06 AM

After a torrid three days which pushed US stocks up almost 6%, the best 3-day run since the Nov 2020 election..

… U.S. index futures finally dropped on Friday one day after JPMorgan again said to BTFD, as traders were concerned Washington may take a tougher stance on China for its muted response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine during a phone call between Xi and Biden set for Friday morning, while bracing for volatility on quad-witching day where $3.5 trillion in options and derivatives are set to expire…

… as the concurrent rebalancing of benchmark indexes including the S&P 500 sill send volumes soaring. Contracts on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both ticked lower about 0.6%. Oil dropped after yesterday’s remarkable surge with WTI trading around $102, while Treasuries and the dollar rose and bitcoin traded just above $40,000.

In premarket trading, FedEx retreated 2% after missing analysts’ estimates. Morgan Stanley analysts said the magnitude of the misses in the U.S. company’s Express and ground units may be “jarring” for investors. GameStop slumped 7% after reporting quarterly losses that were wider-than-expected, with Baird saying that the video-game retailer’s margins were “significantly” below expectations. Other notable premarket movers include:

Astra Space (ASTR US) drops 5% in premarket trading after the company postponed its fourth-quarter results by two weeks to March 31.
AvePoint (AVPT US) declined 1% in extended trading Thursday after the software company gave a revenue outlook for 2022 that fell short of even the lowest analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg.

“No clear directional price action will be expected today as traders will also have to brace for a triple witching day in addition to the complicated geopolitical context, which should drive market volatility higher, providing a complicated set-up to very short-term investor,” said Pierre Veyret, a technical analyst at ActivTrades.

“In this environment of tightening monetary policy and higher inflation risks globally, we continue to believe in more downside for risk assets over the medium term,” Mizuho International Plc multi-asset strategist Peter Chatwellwrote in a note to clients.

In the latest developments, Russia’s foreign minister repeated a threat to target arms convoys in Ukraine sent by the U.S. and its allies. President Joe Biden will tell Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping the U.S. will “impose costs” if Beijing backs Russia, in a call planned for 9 a.m. EDT. Here are the key things to watch:

US President Biden will speak with Chinese President Xi at 09:00EDT on Friday, while it was separately reported that President Biden called Russian President Putin a murderous dictator and pure thug.
US President Biden’s administration reportedly hardened its stance towards China ahead of Biden-Xi call on Friday, while officials believe Russia is moving closer to supporting the Kremlin.
Russian Kremlin says that the Russian delegation in peace talks has expressed a readiness to work faster but the Ukraine delegation has not shown a similar readiness, negotiations continue.
Ukraine Deputy PM says nine humanitarian corridors have been agreed for Friday.
Ukrainian Presidential aide Zhovkva says talks with Russia are progressing, but only slowly; will not negotiate an inch of Ukrainian territory.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says Russia’s goal is to remove threats to Russia on Ukrainian soil; any weapons cargo to Ukraine is considered as “fair game” for Russia. A number of countries including China, India, Brazil and Mexico “will not dance to the tune of the United States”, via Sky News Arabia.
Russian President Putin and French President Macron will speak on Friday.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.1% but was set for its best week since November 2020. Retail and miners outperformed, while autos, energy and travel are the worst-performing sectors in European stocks. FTSE MIB outperforms, adding 0.1%, CAC 40 lags, dropping 0.6%. S&P futures decline 0.5%. Investors continued to favor U.S. equity funds in the week to March 16, with $32 billions pouring into the strategy, while all other regions had outflows, according to Bank of America strategists, citing EPFR Global data. U.S. data on Friday include existing home sales, while no major companies are scheduled to report results

Asian stocks steadied after a two-day rally, as investors await the outcome of talks between U.S. President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on the war in Ukraine later Friday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased earlier losses to trade little changed. The rebound late in the day was led by moves in Chinese stocks, with shares on the mainland ending higher and those in Hong Kong paring declines. China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index flipped from a loss of as much as 1% to gain 0.3% in afternoon trading, with energy and financials leading. The energy subgauge was up 2.6%, financials +2% with Seazen Holdings and Ping An Insurance among the top performers. Walvax and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals top the broader gauge, with sentiment for the sector lifted after Chinese firms signed agreements to make a generic version of Pfizer’s Covid pill. Most other major gauges in the region posted gains.

Investors remain cautious amid concerns Washington may take a tougher stance on China for its muted response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, though Beijing denies that it has tacitly backed the war. President Biden is set to speak by phone with Xi on Friday at 9 a.m. in Washington. “I don’t think we can escape from volatility,” said Manishi Raychaudhuri, head of APAC Equity Research at BNP Paribas. “Earlier in the year, we were only dealing with uncertainties surrounding the global central banks’ reaction function to inflation. Now, we also have to deal with geopolitical tensions and we have no visibility how exactly that situation is going to end.” READ: Biden Team Hardens View of China Tilting Toward Putin on Ukraine Japanese stocks gained as the Bank of Japan doubled down on its commitment to continue with stimulus even if inflation continues to accelerate. The rebound in Chinese stocks came as traders speculated the central bank could further ease monetary policy soon, following the authorities’ pledge to stabilize markets. For the week, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was poised for a 3.9% advance, the best performance in months

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced as the greenback was steady to higher against all Group-of-10 peers apart from the Swiss franc; Treasury yields fell by up to 2bps, led by the long end Commodity-linked currencies apart from the Norwegian krone held up against the dollar while the euro underperformed. Euro options gauges have reached or are very close to the levels seen before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as traders position for lower geopolitical risks. European benchmark yields fell, led by the short end, and with the core outperforming the periphery. The pound was steady while the Gilts yield curve bull-steepened sharply as money markets pared BOE tightening wagers following Thursday’s dovish hike. The yen headed for a second weekly decline as the Bank of Japan kept its ultra-loose monetary policy while central banks in the U.S. and U.K. raised rates earlier this week. Super-long Japanese government bonds outperformed. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda doubled down on his commitment to continue with stimulus even if inflation continues to accelerate, in a rebuttal of the need to join a global wave of central banks normalizing policy.

In rates, Treasuries advanced with yields richer by more than 4bp across long-end of the curve, following steeper gains for gilts. 10-year TSY yield was at 2.14% is richer by 3bp vs Thursday’s close vs more than 7bp decline for U.K. 10-year; U.S. 2s10s is flatter by ~2bp with U.K. curve steeper by more than 3bp. The U.K. curve bull-steepened during London session, pricing in lower odds of a 50bp rate hike by Bank of England following yesterday’s dovish turn. Declines for U.S. stock futures also support Treasuries. Three Fed speakers are scheduled during Friday’s session, and St. Louis Fed President Bullard, who dissented from this week’s decision to raise rates by a quarter point in favor of a larger move, said in a statement the policy rate should rise above 3% this year.

In commodities, WTI crude futures fade, trading at around $103 after rising as high as $106.28. Spot gold falls roughly $9 to trade around $1,930/oz. Most base metals trade in the green; LME tin rises 2.3%, outperforming peers.

Looking at today’s calendar, we will get existing home sales and the leading index from the US. In Europe, Italy’s and Eurozone’s trade balances are due. Elsewhere, retail sales for Canada will be published. Now that the Fed blackout period is over, we will hear from Kashkari, Barkin amd Bowman.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 4,388.75
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 449.96
MXAP little changed at 178.10
MXAPJ down 0.1% to 580.94
Nikkei up 0.7% to 26,827.43
Topix up 0.5% to 1,909.27
Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 21,412.40
Shanghai Composite up 1.1% to 3,251.07
Sensex up 1.8% to 57,863.93
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,294.35
Kospi up 0.5% to 2,707.02
German 10Y yield little changed at 0.39%
Euro down 0.3% to $1.1062
Brent Futures up 1.2% to $107.93/bbl
Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,936.83
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.23% to 98.20

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

China’s muted response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has hardened views within the Biden administration that President Xi Jinping may be moving closer to supporting Moscow as the conflict continues, according to several people familiar with the matter
Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to reduce the economic impact of his Covid-fighting measures, signaling a shift in a longstanding strategy that has minimized fatalities but weighed heavily on the world’s second-largest economy
Russian President Vladimir Putin told German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that Ukraine is trying to “stall” talks by putting out “more and more new unrealistic demands,” according to the readout of the phone talks from the Kremlin
Russia’s central bank meeting in Moscow on Friday will be little more than a cameo for the Bank of Russia in an economic drama playing out across the world’s biggest country, as the wipeout of household wealth, food shortages and a dash for the exits by foreign companies and Russians shatter three decades of policy making after the Soviet collapse
Russian dollar bonds rose, and the cost of insuring the nation’s debt against default dropped after people familiar with the matter said funds earmarked for interest payments on the Russian government’s dollar notes were sent to the payment agent
China made its biggest push to weaken the yuan through its currency fixings this week as virus-related curbs and rising commodity prices threatened to slow the economy
China sailed its aircraft carrier Shandong through the Taiwan Strait on Friday, Reuters reports, citing an unidentified person with direct knowledge of the matter
Investors in China’s $870 billion of offshore bonds are facing up to the realities of being last in line as borrowers struggle to pay during an unprecedented wave of distress that’s sent defaults to a record
Argentina’s senate approved the government’s $45 billion agreement with the International Monetary Fund on Thursday, clearing the way for its final approval by the lender’s board of directors
Iceland faces a lower risk of speculative money flows because of shifts in global monetary policy after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, central bank Governor Asgeir Jonsson said

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Nesquawk

Asia=Pac stocks eventually traded mostly positive following on from Wall St’s best 3-day gain since 2020. ASX 200 was underpinned by commodity-related sectors including energy after oil rallied over 9% yesterday. Nikkei 225 eked marginal gains amid the lack of fireworks at the BoJ policy announcement Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed as tech stocks in Hong Kong faded their mid-week surges and with China said to weigh a Tencent overhaul by separating WeChat Pay from the core business and a new licence requirement. Conversely, the mainland was indecisive with downside cushioned amid further efforts by Chinese press to instill confidence in the equity market and with participants awaiting the Biden-Xi call.

Top Asian News

First Hong Kong-Listed SPAC Has Slow Start In Trading Debut
Taiwanese Crypto Exchange MaiCoin Is Said to Weigh Nasdaq IPO
China Reopening Names Mixed as Pfizer’s Covid Pill Arrives
Shell’s Prelude LNG Export Plant Cleared by Regulator to Restart

European bourses, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%, have become incrementally more pressure after a relatively contained cash open, all eyes on the US-China meeting and Fed speak. US futures are similarly pressured, ES -0.6%, but have been somewhat more contained thus far; reminder, today is Quad Witching. Sectors, were initially mixed in Europe but have been drifting lower and are all in negative territory with the exception of some mild support for Defensives.

Top European News

U.K. Regulator Revokes RT’s License to Broadcast in the U.K.
BNP Paribas Upgraded at SocGen on Capital, Shares Decline
Ted Baker Gains as Sycamore Studies Bid for U.K. Fashion Brand
P&O Crew Mutiny After Firing Threatens Biggest U.K. Trade Artery

In FX, Dollar regains poise after post-FOMC demise with DXY pivoting 98.000. Yen still lagging following no change from ultra accommodating BoJ, USD/JPY just shy of 119.00. Euro loses grip of 1.1100 handle where decent option expiry interest starts and ends at 1.1110 (1.44bln). Pound pares some post-dovish BoE hike declines and Rouble was unphased by the CBR keeping rates unchanged after the significant intra-meeting hike; Cable straddles 1.3150 and USD/RUB firmly above 100.0000.

In fixed income, bonds bounced firmly ahead of the weekend as risk sentiment sours and stocks head into quad-witching on a
weak footing. Curves continue to flatten following Fed and BoE tightening. Gilts extend outperformance and recovery gains on a dovish leaning MPC split and guidance.

In commodities, WTI and Brent front-month futures are firmer but off best levels as the complex continues to nurse some of this week’s earlier losses. WTI Apr resides just above USD 104/bbl (vs weekly high 109.72/bbl) whilst Brent May trades hovers around USD 108.00 (vs weekly high 113.15.bbl). UK PM Johnson was unable to secure an agreement with Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia to boost oil output after a visit to the region although Downing Street claimed the trip was not about quick fixes, according to Politics Home. LME says some trades have gone through below the Nickel limit, such trades will be cancelled; hit the adjusted limit down of -12%. Spot gold/silver are pressured as the USD retains an underlying bid, eyes on Biden-Xi call.

US Event Calendar

10am: Feb. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -6.2%, prior 6.7%
10am: Feb. Leading Index, est. 0.3%, prior -0.3%
10am: Feb. Home Resales with Condos, est. 6.1m, prior 6.5m

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Cannes where I want a refund given I haven’t seen the sun yet while it’s apparently barmy hot at home. My hotel is off the beaten track and has a small rooftop pool. I decided to put my gym kit on yesterday and have my lunch sandwich by the side of it as this was a novelty after a long winter at home. Within 2 minutes I was freezing and went back to my room. I should have got the message when no-one else was there. I’m at a big property conference and I have to say the streets were very busy last night as I walked back from giving an after dinner speech. It’s remarkable how quickly normality is returning after Covid.

Talking of normal, we’re running a quick flash poll for a couple more hours this morning as to whether you think this time is different. Normally in first 9-12 months after the start of a Fed hiking cycle equities go up, credit tightens, yields go up and the curve flattens. Will this time be different? We have five one click answers. It took me 7 seconds to complete myself. All help appreciated. The link to the survey is here. Answers in my Chart of the Day (CoTD) later today. If you want to be added to CoTD let me know.

Yesterday was met with a flurry of conflicting headlines about the future prospects of negotiations around the war, with the back and forth reaching frenzied levels after most markets had called it a day. US intelligence warned that President Putin was likely to increase nuclear sabre rattling should the war drag on. This is something that hasn’t come up since three weekends ago so worrying news. Meanwhile, the State Department reported they saw no signs Putin was ready to stop his invasion, dampening hopes of a diplomatic conclusion. On the upside, China’s UN envoy reportedly called for maximum restraint in the Ukraine war, which will hopefully make Russia feel less emboldened.

Earlier in the day the Kremlin and Ukrainian officials had already pushed back on optimistic reports about the state of negotiations. However markets climbed a wall of worry (S&P 500 +1.23%) until the nuclear headlines after the close. As I type, S&P futures are -0.66% down with 10-yr UST yields flattish at 2.174%.

The main moves yesterday centered around crude oil and gilts, which rallied across the curve following the BoE meeting. The Bank Rate was raised another +25bps, but couched in much more dovish communications than we’re used to of late from DM central banks. Meanwhile, oil staged another comeback, with Brent futures gaining +8.79% and advancing another 2% this morning. Finally, Russia’s sovereign bond payments made its way to custodians, which enabled payments to creditors, this helping equities in the US session.

Elsewhere on the conflict, the US is re-upping its military support to Ukraine to the tune of $800 million of new weaponry. President Biden is set to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping later today about the conflict, where Biden will reportedly emphasize the US will impose costs on China were it to support Russia in the conflict. The US House of Representatives followed through on earlier threats by voting to revoke Russia’s most favored nation status in international trade, enabling the US to impose material tariffs against Russian imports.

Diving into yesterday’s BoE meeting. The central bank hiked by +25bps, as widely expected, becoming the first major central bank to bring its key rate back to the pre-pandemic level and an overview by our UK economist is available here. The lone dissent yesterday was for keeping policy on hold, unlike the February meeting when four dissenters preferred a +50bp rate hike. A big shift. Further, the guidance in the statement implied the MPC was much more concerned about potential drags on growth. That said, the guidance still expects modest further tightening, albeit with risks around that path being much more two-sided than they previously were. Our UK economists maintained their call for further Bank Rate increases at the May, June, and August meetings.

Gilts outperformed across the curve, with 2yrs falling -11.7bps and 10yr gilts dropping -6.6bps to 1.56%, while the pound lost -0.16% versus the dollar and -0.51% versus the euro. Price action in the rest of Europe was more muted, with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.7bps) and OATs (-1.3bps) slightly lower. The commodity rally drove 10yr bund breakevens +3.4bps wider. Nominal Treasury yields were similarly muted, with 10yr yields falling -1.4bps. However, that masks a large pickup in 10yr Treasury breakevens, which gained +13.6bps to 2.94% on the rise in energy costs.

On energy, oil climbed steadily throughout the day, with Brent futures gaining +8.79% and ending their short-lived stint below $100/bbl. No one development discretely drove oil prices, but the negative tone around the conflict as well as heightened volatility in commodity markets contributed. For their part, European natural gas prices gained another +2.56%. French President Macron noted the state may have to take control of some energy firms amid the recent market turmoil. He had backing from the ECB’s Visco who said administered prices would not be a bad idea. Agricultural commodities kept with recent trends and climbed as well, with corn and wheat futures gaining +3.18% and +2.15%, respectively.

Equity markets put in a mixed performance on both sides of the Atlantic. The STOXX 600 gained +0.45%, while the DAX and CAC were mirror images, the DAX falling by -0.36% with the CAC picking up +0.36%. The S&P 500 outperformed, climbing +1.23%, benefitting from the pick up in sentiment following Russia’s bond payment making its way to bond holders. Energy (+3.48%) re-assumed its place as the best performing sector following the jump in oil prices, though every sector ended the day in positive territory.

Overnight in Asia, equity markets are mostly trading lower, after the nuclear headlines. The Hang Seng (-2.43%) is lagging in early trade giving up some of its gains fueled by China’s recent support pledge. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite (-0.22%) and CSI (-0.89%) are drifting lower, shedding earlier sessions gains while the Kospi (+0.08%) is just above the flatline.

Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.28%) is up after the BOJ held steady on monetary policy. In a largely expected decision, the central bank kept its interest rate targets unchanged but warned of heightening growth risks emanating from the Russian-Ukraine war as it stuck with a dovish tone. Additionally, the BOJ downgraded its economic assessment just two months after it was upgraded, due to surging Omicron COVID-19 variant cases.

Earlier today, economic data released showed that Japan’s national consumer price index (CPI) grew +0.9% y/y in February, matching Bloomberg estimates but much higher than January’s +0.5% increase. The strong inflation figures clearly demonstrates signs of growing inflationary pressure from higher energy costs.

If one were looking for evidence of global de-dollarization in oil trade invoicing, yesterday was a setback, as there were reports of Indian refiners buying Russian oil at a deep discount using US dollars, despite speculation a rupee-ruble settlement mechanism would be used. A story to keep an eye on over the longer-term.

Looking at yesterday’s data releases, the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey showcased a material beat, printing at 27.4 versus expectations of 14.5. US jobless claims came in at 214k, slightly below the expected 220k and lower than the previous revised value of 229k. Housing starts (1769k vs 1700k expected) and building permits (1859k ss 1850k) also beat estimates on the upside. There was no sign of a slowing US economy yesterday.

In today’s data releases, we will get existing home sales and the leading index from the US. In Europe, Italy’s and Eurozone’s trade balances are due. Elsewhere, retail sales for Canada will be published.

END

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY NIGHT

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

END

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA//SHENZHEN

That was fast: Shenzhen reopens factories as COVID cases retreat

(zerohedge)

Shenzhen Reopens Factories As COVID Cases Retreat

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 07:25 PM

That was quick.

Just days after locking down Shenzhen, China’s biggest high-tech hub, CCP authorities have decided to allow most manufacturing businesses to reopen and resume production after shutdowns created chaos in the global supply chain. As we reported the other day, factories owned by Foxconn and other major tech manufacturers were idled due to the lockdown.

Huang Qiang, deputy secretary general of Shenzhen’s government, said Thursday during a citywide press conference that mass screening had gone smoothly since the start of the planned week-long lockdown began on Monday. So far, there have been fewer confirmed cases from community screening in recent days and most new cases have been found among quarantined close contacts or areas placed under restrictions.

On Thursday, Shenzhen reported 71 symptomatic cases and 20 asymptomatic cases, as China logged more than 2,400 local infections nationwide, a number that was even lower than the 3,000+ new cases reported on Wednesday, which in turn was lower than the 5,000+ number from Tuesday (which was also the largest daily tally since the Wuhan outbreak two years ago), according to SCMP.

Huang said Shenzhen still faces the risk of new imported cases, or a resurgence from the virus that’s still spreading, especially in the city’s overcrowded urban villages.

“We will keep conducting citywide mass screening…to quickly identify the infected and cut transmission links,” he said. “At the same time, we are building a strong line of defense against cases from outside the city.”

He also said that the government has put getting factories and businesses up and running on the agenda.

“We will organise the resumption of work and production in an orderly manner, guide enterprises in areas such as the disinfection of factories, monitoring employees’ temperature and improving ventilation in staff canteens,” he said. “We will also provide businesses with practical help to resolve problems like manpower, capital and raw materials.”

Meanwhile, Shenzhen is also planning on relocating some families in Tangyan village in its Futian district for a 14-day centralized quarantine, after COVID cases were found earlier in the neighborhood.

The area will be thoroughly disinfected and residents can return ‘in an orderly manner’ after a 14-day monitoring period. Designated teams will be put in place to cater to those who need additional care, like the elderly with chronic illnesses.

Lockdowns have rattled China’s economy, creating a major threat to GDP growth, as the following chart from Goldman shows.

With this in mind, it’s easy to understand why the CCP is scrambling to get factories back up and running as quickly as possible.

Presently, all shops and businesses are closed in Shenzhen except for supermarkets and restaurants offering takeout. The shutdowns have strained China’s economy and hammered its stocks, prompting the CCP yesterday to announce that it would take steps to buttress the stock market after several brutal days in the red.

end

CHINA/USA

Biden to warn Xi of USA retaliation over their support of Russia//Friday morning call

(zerohedge)

Biden To Warn Xi Of US Retaliation Measures Over Russia Support In Tense Friday Morning Call

FRIDAY, MAR 18, 2022 – 08:15 AM

Ahead of their scheduled 9am (eastern) call this morning, President Joe Biden is expected to warn Xi Jinping that the US is ready to retaliate if Beijing is found to be actively supporting Russia in Ukraine, following a week of Washington allegations that China is mulling providing military equipment, including possibly drones, to replenish Moscow’s supplies in Ukraine.

Previewing the conversation, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized Biden will “make clear that China will bear responsibility for any actions it takes to support Russia’s aggression, and we will not hesitate to impose costs” in a Thursday news conference. Blinken has charged that China is “considering directly assisting Russia with military equipment.”

Blinken said further “it appears that China is moving in the opposite direction by refusing to condemn this aggression, while seeking to portray itself as a neutral arbiter.” An example of this kind of mixed signaling is that China has so far withheld calling what kicked off on Feb.24 an “invasion” but has used the words “issue” or “crisis”. At the same time China’s ambassador to Kiev this week affirmed Beijing’s “friendship” with Ukraine, vowing that it would never undermine its sovereignty and that it would “never attack” it.

Jen Psaki described the call as a chance for Biden to assess “where President Xi stands.” There is also a widespread belief within the US administration that Beijing is prepared to assist Russia with evasion of Western sanctions related to Ukraine. Beijing has of course vehemently denied all of this, blasting the allegations as but the more Washington “misinformation” and “mudslinging”.

“The absence of denunciation by China of what Russia is doing . . . flies in the face . . . of everything China stands for, including the basic principles of the UN Charter, including the basic principles of respect for sovereignty of nations,” Psaki said. “The fact that China has not denounced what Russia is doing, in and of itself, speaks volumes.” Going into the call, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said the administration hopes Xi “chooses the right side of history.”

Meanwhile, within 12 hours ahead of the call, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying issued some choice words lashing out at the US administration’s recent growing accusations: “If the US had truly abided by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, how could it have staged wars without remorse for the people of Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq & Syria…?”

The fiery statement pivoted to this…

“On the Ukraine issue, between the US and Russia, there are scores of countries besides China that are drawing independent conclusions, trying to deescalate the situation, encouraging peace talks in deeds as well as words, and protecting their legitimate rights and interests.”

“Ukrainian people need peace and security instead of weapons and ammunition” she added. And more…

Just ahead of the Friday morning call, one insightful market commentator underscored just how high the stakes are in the scenario that relations unravel further over the Russia-Ukraine crisis… “I cannot help myself but to editorialize here and say this is a profound diplomatic misstep, one that pushes China into the arms of Russia — creating an alliance between two Asian nations that are perfectly fit for one another — with Russia providing natural resources and materials and China manpower and technology. The hubris of American diplomacy to demand China to heel before US policy in Ukraine could end up being a total disaster.”

Perhaps entirely to be expected, hours before the Biden-Xi call state-run Global Times went on the attack over White House “smear” tactics, writing the following scathing critique of Biden’s handling of China over Ukraine:

Not surprisingly, before the phone talk, some US officials have intensively made irresponsible remarks and spread disinformation to smear China and pressure it over the Ukraine issue. Such deeds have become “common practices” of the US before high-level interactions, which are irresponsible and immoral, said the official.

The English language op-ed added, “China will never accept US threats and coercion, and if the US takes measures that harm China’s legitimate interests and the interests of Chinese enterprises and individuals, China will not sit idly by and will make a strong response, the official stressed, noting the US should not have any illusions or miscalculations about this.”

“Every damn thing I said…”

Maersk Warns China’s COVID Lockdowns Disrupt Supply Chains

FRIDAY, MAR 18, 2022 – 01:23 PM

Even though Shenzhen, China, allowed factories and public transport to restart Friday after six days of lockdowns to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, global supply chains have already been impacted.

A.P. Møller – Maersk A/S, the world’s largest container shipping company by capacity, told clients China’s zero-tolerance approach against the virus has already produced new supply chain snarls and logistical delays.

“While manufacturing also takes place in other parts of the country, these delays will still affect output, though not drastically,” Maersk said in a memo to clients obtained by Bloomberg.

Maersk has activated contingency plans in China following the six-day lockdown in Shenzhen. The disruption shuttered factories and brought the transportation industry to a grinding halt.

What happens in China tends to have severe consequences elsewhere because it accounts for a third of the world’s total manufacturing capacity. Shenzhen is a top manufacturing hub in China and has the Port of Shenzhen, one of the largest in China. If you’re purchasing an electronic on Amazon, it’s likely it was made in China and shipped out of this region on a container ship.

Adam Compain, senior vice president of supply chain analysis research firm project44, told BBC News the number of vessels waiting at some Chinese ports has increased since the lockdowns.

“We saw a 28.5% increase in the number of vessels waiting outside of the port of Yantian which is a major export port to Europe and North America,” Compain said.

Yantian is in the same region as Shenzhen. Last year, Yantian experienced limited operations due to COVID outbreaks and contributed to significant delivery delays of products to the US.

“It’s a double-edged sword,” says Steven Lynch, managing director at British Chamber of Commerce China.

“China comes down very quickly which causes huge disruptions but then, things will go back to normal relatively quickly.
“We’ve seen these lockdowns before so companies have put in a robust supply chain management,” Lynch explained.

The good news is President Xi Jinping pledged Friday to soften the economic impact of fighting the virus. However, the latest lockdown of multiple cities and tens of millions of people, along with factories, is already having a spillover effect at the worst possible time as war and inflation have made supply chain issues worse.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFFAIRS

//EUROPE/COVID

END

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA

Here Are All The Latest News And Developments From The Ukraine War: March 18

FRIDAY, MAR 18, 2022 – 09:13 AM

Amid the non-stop firehose of news from Ukraine and related developments, we have filtered out the most important events and developments for the benefit of our readers, courtesy of Newsquawk:

Discussions/ Negotiations

US President Biden will speak with Chinese President Xi at 09:00EDT/13:00GMT on Friday, while it was separately reported that President Biden called Russian President Putin a murderous dictator and pure thug.
US President Biden’s administration reportedly hardened its stance towards China ahead of Biden-Xi call on Friday, while officials believe China is moving closer to supporting the Kremlin.
Ukraine Deputy PM says nine humanitarian corridors have been agreed for Friday.
Ukrainian Presidential aide Zhovkva says talks with Russia are progressing, but only slowly; will not negotiate an inch of Ukrainian territory.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says Russia’s goal is to remove threats to Russia on Ukrainian soil; any weapons cargo to Ukraine is considered as “fair game” for Russia. A number of countries including China, India, Brazil and Mexico “will not dance to the tune of the United States”, via Sky News Arabia.
Russian Kremlin says that the Russian delegation in peace talks has expressed a readiness to work faster but the Ukraine delegation has not shown a similar readiness, negotiations continue.
Russian President Putin and French President Macron will speak on Friday.

Energy/Economic Updates

Australian government placed sanctions on the Russian national wealth fund and Ministry of Finance.
Australia added that new sanctions were imposed on 11 banks and individuals and that a majority of Russia’s banking assets are now covered by sanctions along with all entities that handle Russia’s sovereign debt.
Japan imposed new sanctions against 15 Russian individuals and 9 Russian groups in which the targets of the new asset freeze sanctions included a defence official and two lawmakers.
S&P lowered Russia’s credit rating from CCC- to CC; remains on Watch Negative, citing high vulnerability to debt non-payment.
Russian sovereign eurobond coupon payments due on Wednesday have been executed, according to Reuters sources. Subsequently, Russian Finance Ministry says it has fully met obligation on paying coupons on Eurobonds due, Citibank has received the USD 117mln.
Senior EU officials have an incredibly dire assessment about likely trajectory of Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine over next few weeks, according to Eurasia’s Rahman; “The threshold for energy import bans (by the EU) is very high.”
Ukraine Foreign Minister Kuleba spoke with EU Foreign Affairs Representative Borrell about preparing a 5th sanction package on Russia.

Defense/Military

White House warned Russia could use unsupported claims about biological and chemical weapons in Ukraine as a cover for escalating the war, according to Axios.
US Pentagon said intelligence provided to Ukraine is making a difference against Russia, according to Sputnik.
UK Ministry of Defence said logistical problems continue to beset Russia’s faltering invasion of Ukraine.
US National Guard denied Russian state media claims that Tennessee National Guard members were killed in Ukraine and said the report is patently false.
Russia has set up a no-fly zone over the Donbass region of Ukraine, via Ifx citing a Donetsk separatist official
Russian Defence Ministry say Russian-backed separatists, with Russian assistance, are “tightening the noose” around Mariupol, fighting ongoing in the city centre, via Reuters citing Ria.

Geopolitics:

Chinese aircraft carrier sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Friday, according to Reuters sources; Shandong carrier which was shadowed by a US destroyer. The timing of the Shandong’s movements, being so close to the US-China President’s call, was described as provocative by the source.
Global Times, citing an official, writes China will never accept US threats/coercion, will urge the US to fulfil President Biden’s commitment not seeking a new Cold War, changes in China’s system, a stronger alliance against China
end.

A must read: Victor Davis Hanson

(Victor Davis Hanson)

Victor Davis Hanson: 10 Realities Of Ukraine

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 07:05 PM

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via Townhall.com,

One — Reassuring an enemy what one will not do ensures that the enemy will do just that and more. Unpredictability and occasional enigmatic silence bolster deterrence. But President Joe Biden’s predictable reassurance to Russian President Vladimir Putin that he will show restraint means Putin likely will not.

Two — No-fly zones don’t work in a big-power, symmetrical standoff. In a cost-benefit analysis, they are not worth the risk of shooting down the planes of a nuclear power. They usually do little to stop planes outside of such zones shooting missiles into them. Sending long-range, high-altitude anti-aircraft batteries to Ukraine to deny Russian air superiority is a far better way of regaining air parity.

Three — Europe, NATO members, and Germany in particular have de facto admitted that their past decades of shutting down nuclear plants, coal mines, and oil and gas fields have left Europe at the mercy of Russia. They are promising to rearm and meet their promised military contributions. By their actions, they are admitting that their critics, the United States in particular, were right, and they were dangerously wrong in empowering Putin.

Four — China is now pro-Russian. Beijing wants Russian natural resources at a discount. Russia will pay for overpriced access to Chinese finance, commerce, and markets. Yet if Russia loses the Ukraine war, goes broke, and as an international pariah is ostracized, then China will likely cut the smelly Russian albatross from its neck – in fear of new Western financial, cultural, and commercial clout.

Five — Americans are finally digesting just how destructive the humiliating flight from Afghanistan was. The catastrophe signaled to Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran that Western deterrence had died.

No surprise that Russia sent missiles into a Ukrainian base near the Polish-NATO border. North Korea in January launched more missiles than in any month in its history. Iran sent missiles into Kurdistan. China announces daily it is just a matter of time until it absorbs Taiwan. The tens of billions of dollars of sophisticated weaponry sent to Ukraine by the West are still far less than what the U.S. military handed over to the terrorist Taliban.

Six — The Ukraine war did not cause inflation and record gas prices. Both were already spiking by early February 2022.

The cause was the Biden Administration’s year-long radical expansion of the money supply at a time of post-COVID, pent-up consumer demand. It foolishly continued de facto zero-interest rates. Its generous COVID subsidies for the unemployed discouraged a return to work, while slashing U.S. oil and gas production and pipelines.

Prior to Putin’s invasion, Biden was quite publicly blaming greedy corporations, oil companies, COVID, and former President Donald Trump for the inflation he had birthed in 2021. And he was claiming undeniable high prices were only temporary or mostly an obsession of the elite.

Seven — Putin did not invade during the Trump tenure, although he had been more aggressive under previous American leadership with his prior attacks on Georgia, Ukraine, and Crimea. Russia stayed still when oil prices were low, fuel supplies in the West were plentiful, and the United States was confident. When the U.S. was neither bogged down in optional military interventions nor led by a president predictably accommodating to Russian aggressions, Russia stayed quiet.

Putin took note of increased NATO and U.S. defense spending. He feared low global oil prices and record American oil and gas production. He was wary after unpredictable American strikes against enemies like ISIS, Abu al-Baghdadi, and the Iranian General Qasem Soleimani.

Eight — It is not “escalation” to send arms to Ukraine. The Russians far more aggressively supplied the North Koreans and North Vietnamese in their wars against America, without spreading the war globally. Pakistan, Syria, and Iran sent deadly weapons — many in turn supplied to them by Russia, North Korea, and China — to kill thousands of Americans during the Afghanistan and Iraq wars.

Nine — Putin may never fully absorb Ukraine as long as it can easily be supplied across its borders by four NATO countries. The U.S. deadlocked in the Korean War, lost the Vietnam War, was stalled in Iraq, and fled Afghanistan in part because its enemies were easily supplied by nearby border friends on the assumption the U.S. could not strike such abettors.

Ten — It is not “un-American” to point out that prior American appeasement under the Obama and the Biden Administrations explains not why Putin wished to go into Ukraine, but why he felt he could. It is not “treasonous” to say Ukraine and the United States previously should have stayed out of each other’s domestic affairs and politics — but still do not excuse Putin’s savage aggression. It is not traitorous to admit that Russia for centuries relied on buffer states between Europe — lost when its Warsaw Pact satellite members joined NATO after its defeat in the Cold War. But that reality also does not justify Putin’s savage attack.

We should not rehash the past but learn from it — and thereby ensure Putin is defeated now and deterred in the future.

end

UKRAINE/RUSSIA//CHINA//USA

China blasts the uSA over their mudslinging and disinformation on what is going on in Ukraine

(zerohedge)

China Blasts US “Mudslinging” & “Disinformation” In WaPo Op-Ed On Ukraine

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 05:25 PM

China has issued a full response to the US regarding recent allegations related to the Ukraine war in a new Washington Post op-ed. China’s ambassador to the US blasted as total “disinformation” the White House charge that Beijing is poised to answer positively Moscow’s request for military assistance in Ukraine. Jake Sullivan had warned the China delegation in Rome that severe “consequences” would follow any Moscow-Beijing cooperation regarding Ukraine.

Specifically the US has said via multiple “senior official” statements to various media outlets that Russia formally requested more weapons, including drones, to advance Russia’s possibly stalled invasion in Ukraine. “Let me say this responsibly: Assertions that China knew about, acquiesced to or tacitly supported this war are purely disinformation,” Qin answered in the WaPo op-ed published late afternoon Tuesday.

He said he intends to “dispel any misunderstandings and rumors” which are based on US officials “slinging mud at China,” according to the envoy’s words.

“On Ukraine, China’s position is objective and impartial,” the ambassador said. “The purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter must be fully observed; the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine, must be respected; the legitimate security concerns of all countries must be taken seriously; and all efforts that are conducive to the peaceful settlement of the crisis must be supported.”

He called Washington’s threats “unacceptable” and said it’s tantamount to “wielding the baton” over baseless charges, as the piece described.

“Neither war nor sanctions can deliver peace. Wielding the baton of sanctions at Chinese companies while seeking China’s support and cooperation simply won’t work,” he wrote.

“Had China known about the imminent crisis, we would have tried our best to prevent it,” Qin claimed, contradicting prior Western media reports alleging that Putin had “tipped off” President Xi, after which Xi reportedly requested that the invasion but put off ill after the Winter Olympics.

Qin in the op-ed addressed ongoing Taiwan comparisons:

“Ukraine is a sovereign state, while Taiwan is an inseparable part of China’s territory. The Taiwan question is a Chinese internal affair. It does not make sense for people to emphasize the principle of sovereignty on Ukraine while hurting China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity on Taiwan,” Qin said.

“We hope the United States earnestly abides by the one-China principle and does not support “Taiwan independence” separatism in any form. To ensure long-term peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, China and the United States must work together to contain ‘Taiwan independence,'” he added.

Meanwhile, China state run media pundits have taken to trolling and mocking the US in relation to the Ukraine crisis…

END

RUSSIA//UKRAINE//CHINA/USA

In reality Russia is not as isolated as you think

(McMaken/Mises)

McMaken: Russia Isn’t Nearly As Isolated As Washington Wants You To Believe

FRIDAY, MAR 18, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

Some US policymakers and pundits are declaring that Russia—and its population—are cut off from the rest of the world. For example, political scientist Nina Khrushcheva has declared “Russia is hated by the rest of the world,” and that “Russia is the global enemy.” The New York Times concludes Russia is now “an economic pariah” and that a “new iron curtain” is falling.

There is no doubt that the sanctions imposed by wealthy Western nations will negatively impact the Russian regime, the Russian economy, and the Russian people. Ordinary Russians, who currently enjoy a GDP per capita that is only a fraction of the size of that in many Western countries, will suffer greatly.

But when it comes to the degree of Russia’s isolation, those gloating about Russia being “cut off” are overstating the case. In fact, many of the world’s largest countries have shown a reluctance to participate in the US’s sanctions schemes, and have instead embraced a far more measured approach. So long as China, India, and other large states continue to be at least partially sympathetic toward Moscow, it will provide a large market for Russia’s natural resources and its other exports. India and other sizable nations have signaled they’re not cutting off Russia just yet.

Moreover, if the US is going to demand that the world fall into line behind US sanctions, that means the US is going to have to enforce its sanctions policy on reluctant nations. That ultimately means the US will need to threaten—or in some cases, implement—secondary sanctions designed to punish nations that don’t sanction Russia as well. The longterm effects of constructing a coerced global anti-Russia block may prove costly for Washington, and in any case, pronouncements of a new iron curtain falling around Russia appear premature.

35 UN Member States—Representing Half the World’s Population—Abstained

For Americans watching TV news, it no doubt sounds like the entire world has united behind an American-led campaign of moral righteousness against the Russians. Out in much of the real world, however, things look a little different. Anthony Faiola and Lesley Wroughton summed up the situation in The Washington Post last week:

Many countries in the developing world, including some of Russia’s closest allies, are unsettled by Putin’s breach of Ukrainian sovereignty. Yet the giants of the Global South – including India, Brazil and South Africa – are hedging their bets while China still publicly backs Putin. Even NATO-member Turkey is acting coy, moving to shut off the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits to all warships, not just the Russians.
Just as Western onlookers often shrug at far-flung conflicts in the Middle East and Africa, some citizens in emerging economies are gazing at Ukraine and seeing themselves without a dog in this fight – and with compelling national interests for not alienating Russia. In a broad swath of the developing world, the Kremlin’s talking points are filtering into mainstream news and social media. But even more measured assessments portray Ukraine as not the battle royal between good and evil being witnessed by the West, but a Machiavellian tug of war between Washington and Moscow.

Meanwhile, James Pindell at the Boston Globe concludes

possibly lost in all the headlines [about the whole world being united against Russia] is that it is not the entire world against Russia. In fact, most of three huge continents – Asia, Africa, and South America – are either still working with Russia or trying to project the image of neutrality.

It easy to see why so many come to the wrong conclusions, however. Many of those crowing about a world united against Russia are often extrapolating from the fact that most of the world’s regimes voted for a recent UN resolution condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, 141 UN member states voted earlier this month to condemn Russia for the invasion. Only five states, including Russia, voted against the measure. It is assumed from this that virtually all the world has both condemned Russia and is also enthusiastic about the US’s sanctions.

Yet, 35 states did choose to abstain from the vote condemning Russia, and many of these abstaining states are very large states indeed—they’re those large states from the Global South mentioned by Faiola and Wroughton.

In fact, the states that either abstained in the UN vote, or voted against it, are states containing more than half—53 percent— of the world’s population. Among the abstaining states are China and 33 other states that combined make up more than 3.9 billion of the world’s 7.7 billion people. If we combine the “no” votes with the abstaining states, that adds another 200 million-plus people to the bloc of states refusing to condemn the Ukraine invasion.

Many former Soviet states are in the bloc not voting to condemn Russia, as are all the large states of south Asia—Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh. Africa also appears to well fit into the region that apparently concludes it has no “dog in this fight.” Nearly one-third of all of Africa’s regimes—16 states—abstained in the UN vote. Iraq—a country that the United States spent 20 years and trillions of dollars to (unsuccessfully) turn into a US client state—voted to abstain, as well.

Of course, how a regime votes in the UN general assembly doesn’t tell us much about the opinions of the man on the street in each country. But, it should be noted—and as shocking as this may seem to Americans—billions of people in the world don’t automatically agree with whatever US government says about the who the world is supposed to hate at any given time. In any case, the man on the street doesn’t make policy. If one-third of the regimes in Africa, most of South Asia, plus China and Vietnam, are now refusing to even condemn the invasion of Ukraine, that doesn’t exactly speak to a world that is lining up to obey US-led sanctions and “isolate” Russia.

Admittedly, looking at population will overstate the geopolitical clout of these dissenters, and population gives us a limited view of the size of the economies of these states. Looked at through this lens, we nonetheless find that the economic bloc of abstainers is not exactly negligible. Moreover, even among countries that voted with the US on the UN resolution have showed a lack of enthusiasm for American-led sanctions.

Both Mexico and Brazil, for example, voted for the UN resolution but have also signaled they are not interested in imposing harsh sanctions on Russia. Mexico’s president has flat-out stated he has no intention of following the US’s lead on sanctions. Argentina’s regime is resisting sanctions and has stated it believes sanctions to be contrary to the peace process. Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, and other Latin American states are trying to punch holes in the US’s sanction demands.

When it comes to Africa, Pindell notes:

Across the ocean, no country in Africa, including South Africa, has joined in the call to make Russia an outlier in global relations. Some if this has to do with Russian military ties to certain nations, or the fact that some African nations don’t feel the need to wade into European relations after centuries of European imperialism and colonization.

So, what chunk of the global economy is likely to maintain ties with Moscow during this supposed isolation period? Well, looking at a limited sampling of sanctions resisters—i.e., the GDPs of Russia, India, China, Brazil, and Mexico combined—we find this “bloc” makes up a full third of global GDP. (China, and India, of course, make up most of this.) That’s similar to the combined economies of the US and the EU.

Once upon a time, of course, being cut off from the US and Europe would have left any pariah with only a small sliver of the global marketplace. Back in 1990, for example, the US and the EU combined to make up more than 40 percent of the global economy while China, India, Mexico, Russia, and Brazil all combined for a measly 18 percent.

But things have changed over the past thirty years, and the two blocs are now equal:

To use an old Cold War term, all this leaves a third of the global economy “non-aligned.” As we’ve seen, much of Africa, Asia and even Latin America remain unconvinced that they need to be cutting off trade with Russia.

We could get even more conservative than that in measuring economic strength outside the USA-EU bloc. No look at geopolitical economic clout is complete without considering the role of total wealth.

And this is where the USA and its closest allies look most powerful. After all, according to Credit Suisse, 30 percent of the world’s wealth is American wealth, with Chinese wealth coming in at about 18 percent of global wealth. Western European wealth is immense as well, with the UK, France, Italy, Spain, and Germany coming in at a combined total of 16 percent. So, yes, the China-India-Russia bloc makes up only one-fifth of global wealth while the US and Western Europe combine for nearly a half of global wealth.

But that also leaves nearly half of the world’s wealth as being in places that can’t exactly be taken for granted as far as US sanctions are concerned.

How The US Could End Up Isolating Itself

The big question now is how Washington will respond to other countries that refuse to jump on the sanctions bandwagon. If the US decides to be content with “sending a message” with sanctions, and leaving it at that, then the US will have little to worry about in terms of maintaining good relations with trade partners and geopolitical partners. Even relations with China would continue largely as normal. But it is becoming clear that most of the world’s regimes don’t plan on voluntarily casting Russia into the outer darkness. That means if the US wants to truly isolate Russia, Washington will have to threaten and coerce other regimes that aren’t going along with it.

The US then puts itself in the position of spending valuable geopolitical capital in order to coerce potential partners like India and Pakistan and Mexico into toeing the line on sanctions. It remains to be seen how far the US is willing to go. If it goes all-in on this, it would damage relations with allies and this could end up limiting the US’s geopolitical position. That, of course, is exactly what Moscow and Beijing would love to see.

END

BIOLABS

Update on bio labs

Inbox

https://t.me/mod_russia_en/238

The Russian Defence Ministry continues to study materials received from employees of Ukrainian laboratories on the implementation of military biological programs of the United States and its NATO allies on the territory of Ukraine.

Western mass media and some biologists, who most often have a second American citizenship, express doubts about the reliability of the materials published by us. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the documents have the signatures of real officials and are certified by the seals of organizations.

We believe that components of biological weapons were created on the territory of Ukraine.

Here is a document dated March 6, 2015, confirming the Pentagon’s direct participation in the financing of military biological projects in Ukraine.

According to established practice, American projects in the field of sanitation in third countries, including in Africa and Asia, are funded through national health authorities.

I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the agreement on joint biological activities was concluded between the US Military Department and the Ministry of Health of Ukraine. However, the real recipient of funds are the laboratories of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence located in Kiev, Odessa, Lvov and Kharkov. The total funding amounted to $32 million.

It is no coincidence that these biolabs were chosen by the US Defence Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and the contractor company Black & Veatch as the executors of the U-P-8 project aimed at studying the pathogens of the Congo-Crimean hemorrhagic fever, leptospirosis and hantaviruses. The corresponding request of the Pentagon to involve Ukrainian laboratories for the implementation of the project is presented on the slide. From our point of view, the interest of US military biologists is due to the fact that these pathogens have natural foci both on the territory of Ukraine and in Russia, and their use can be disguised as natural outbreaks of diseases. That is why this project has received additional funding, and the terms of its implementation have been extended.

A study of the documents in the part of the P-781 project on the study of ways of transmitting diseases to humans through bats showed that the work was carried out on the basis of a laboratory in Kharkov together with the infamous R. Lugar Center in Tbilisi. The total costs of the Pentagon for its implementation in Ukraine and Georgia amounted to $ 1.6 million, most of which was received by Ukraine as the main contractor.

The documents received by the Russian Ministry of Defence indicate that research in this area is systematic and has been conducted since at least 2009 under the direct supervision of specialists from the United States within the framework of projects P-382, P-444 and P-568. One of the curators of this activity was the head of the DTRA office at the US Embassy in Kiev, Joanna Wintrall. Maybe journalists should talk to her?

During the implementation of these projects, six families of viruses (including coronaviruses) and three types of pathogenic bacteria (pathogens of plague, brucellosis and leptospirosis) were identified. This is due to the main characteristics of these pathogens that make them favourable for the purposes of infection: resistance to drugs, rapid speed of spread from animals to humans, etc.

It is necessary to note a number of documents confirming the transfer of bioassays selected in Ukraine to the territory of third countries, including Germany, Great Britain, Georgia.

Here are official documents confirming the transfer of five thousand samples of blood serum of Ukrainian citizens to the R. Lugar Center affiliated with the Pentagon in Tbilisi, 773 bioassays were transferred to the reference laboratory of Great Britain. An agreement has been signed for the export of unlimited quantities of infectious materials to the Leffler Institute in Germany.

An analysis of the information received indicates that Ukrainian specialists are not aware of the potential risks of transferring biomaterials, are being used essentially blindly, and have no real idea of the true purpose of the research being conducted.

I would like to draw attention to outbreaks of economically significant diseases on the territory of the Russian Federation. In 2021 alone, the damage from highly pathogenic avian influenza exceeded 1.7 billion rubles, and 6 million heads of poultry were destroyed. At the same time, in European countries, the losses of the agricultural industry from it amounted to about 2.0 billion. euro.

Within the framework of the FLU-FLYWAY project, the Kharkov Institute of Veterinary Medicine studied wild birds as vectors for the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza. At the same time, the conditions under which spread processes can become unmanageable, cause economic damage and pose risks to food security have been assessed.

These documents confirm the involvement of the Kharkov Institute in the collection of avian influenza virus strains with high epidemic potential and capable of overcoming the interspecific barrier. The activities of this institute should be the subject of an international investigation.
Information continues to be received about attempts to destroy biomaterials and documentation in laboratories in Ukraine.

We know that during the liquidation measures in the laboratory of veterinary medicine in Khlebodarskoye, working employees (citizens of Ukraine) were not even allowed into the building! This laboratory cooperates with Anti-Plague Research Institute named after Mechnikov in Odessa, which conducts research with pathogens of plague, anthrax, cholera, tularemia, arboviruses.

In an attempt to cover their tracks, biological waste from the laboratory in Khlebodarskoye was taken 120 km away towards the western border to the area of Tarutino and Berezino settlements. All these facts are recorded by the Ministry of Defence for subsequent legal assessment.

It is necessary to mention the emergency destruction of documents in Kherson biological laboratory.

One of the reasons for such a rush may be the concealment of information about the outbreak of dirofilariasis, a disease transmitted by mosquitoes, that occurred in Kherson in 2018. The question arises why four cases of infection were detected in February, which is unusual for the life cycle of these insects. In April 2018, representatives of the Pentagon visited local healthcare institutions, where they got acquainted with the results of the epidemiological investigation and copied medical documentation.

However, no documentary evidence has been found concerning this outbreak in Kherson laboratory. Proceeding from this, we believe that the urgency of destroying such documentary evidence is explained by the desire to prevent them from getting to Russian specialists.

In addition, attention is drawn to the fact of a sharp increase in cases of tuberculosis caused by new multi-resistant strains among citizens living in Lugansk and Donetsk people’s republics in 2018. These data are confirmed by specialists of Rospotrebnadzor. During the mass outbreak recorded in the area of Peski settlement, more than 70 cases of the disease were detected, which ended in a rapid fatal outcome. This may indicate a deliberate infection, or an accidental leakage of the pathogen from one of the biolabs located on the territory of Ukraine.

In accordance with the Convention on the Prohibition of Biological and Toxin Weapons, the participating States submit to the UN information about objects and ongoing biological activities.

These are Confidence-building measures that are published in order to monitor the implementation of the Convention. Since 2016 – the moment of the beginning of the implementation of the projects mentioned by us (including UP-4, UP-8 and P-781), the USA and Ukraine have been deliberately silent about them in international reporting, despite their obvious military-biological orientation.

Such secrecy is another reason to think about the true goals of the Pentagon in Ukraine.

I would like to remind you of the historical facts when such irresponsible activities of the United States outside of national jurisdiction ended only with formal apologies from the American administration. So, in October 2010, US President Obama acknowledged the fact of conducting illegal research on Guatemalan citizens who were intentionally infected with syphilis and gonorrhea pathogens with the approval of the White House.

The Russian Federation has repeatedly called for the publication of data on the military biological activities of the Pentagon on the territory of third countries, but the collective West, led by the United States, consistently blocks this initiative, preferring to conduct research bypassing international obligations with “someone else’s hands”.

We will continue to study the evidence and inform the world community about the illegal activities of the Pentagon and other US government agencies in Ukraine.

Documents: https://disk.yandex.ru/d/ndINmQKPfDRM0w

Briefing Slides: https://disk.yandex.ru/d/Y8zIZLLNV6M9Fg

end

Update

Inbox

Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation.

The grouping of troops of the Lugansk People’s Republic with the fire support of the Russian Armed Forces liberated more than 90 percent of the territory of the republic.

Currently, the units of the Lugansk People’s Republic are eliminating scattered groups of nationalists on the southern outskirts of Rubezhnoye liberated settlement.

In the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue their successful offensive in the northern direction.
During the day, they took control of Zolotaya Niva, Novodonetsky, Novomayorskoye and Prechistovka. The advance was 16 kilometers.

In Mariupol, units of the Donetsk People’s Republic, with the support of the Russian Armed Forces, narrow the encirclement and fighting against nationalists in the city center.

During the night, aviation and air defence means of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down 6 more Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, including 1 Bayraktar TB-2.

Operational-tactical and army aviation hit 81 military assets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Among them: 4 multiple launch rocket system, 3 command posts, 8 ammunition depots and 28 areas of military equipment concentration.

In total, 183 unmanned aerial vehicles, 1,406 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 138 multiple launch rocket systems, 535 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,197 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.

Continued

Statement by Russian Defence Ministry

On the night of March, 18, the residential areas of Melitopol were attacked by Tochka-U cluster-warhead missiles from a territory controlled by the Kiev nationalist regime.

The Russian air defence systems have repelled the missile launched against the civilian population of the city.

The attack had been launched from the northern direction, south-eastern outskirts of Zaporozhie that is fully controlled by the Ukrainian nationalist units.

The Russian Federation Armed Forces have detected the coordinates of the Ukrainian ballistic missiles.

In order to prevent missile attacks and to protect the Ukrainian citizens against new attacks of the Kiev nationalist regime, the rocket launchers of the Ukrainian nationalists have been destroyed by two Iskander missiles.

It should be emphasised that Melitopol is in ordinary conditions. Shops and public transport are in operation. Every day the Russian servicemen deliver humanitarian aid that has repeatedly been told and shown by mass media representatives.

The subsequent application of ballistic missiles against civilian residents by the Kiev regime whose representatives knew about the absence of Russian Armed Forces firing positions in residential areas of Melitopol proves the criminal nature of the nationalist leadership of Ukraine.

end

From a clever observer of war:

Inbox

The fundamental difference between the American and Russian ways of fighting probably comes down to understanding one of the greatest mistranslations in history.

That one quotation from the legendary Prussian general, Carl von Clausewitz, that you probably remember from school – assuming you were misedjoomuhcayted in an American public indoctrination camp school, that is – likely goes something like this:

“War is politics by another means”.

It is an elegant aphorism. And it is wrong.

The true quote is this:

“Der Krieg ist nichts als eine Fortsetzung des politischen Verkehrs mit Einmischung anderer Mittel“.

In Ye Olde Queene’s Englishe, which of course Americans don’t speak, this literally translates as:

“War is nothing but a continuation of political intercourse with the interference of other means”.

Pay close attention to the difference between “BY another means”, and “WITH (the interference of) other means”. In this slight difference in wording lies a vast, yawning gap of understanding.

The Western way of war dates back to the Greek hoplite phalanx formations, and essentially consists of two armies smashing against each other until one or the other is dust, at which point, the victor dictates terms to the vanquished. In that way of thinking, war is almost an all-or-nothing exercise in achieving a very specific end.

The Russian way of war involves using military force in combination with negotiation. They take the Clausewitzian doctrine literally to mean, “use war and violence to force the other guy to the negotiating table and get him to agree to your terms – and if he doesn’t, ratchet up the pressure on him until he does”.

Put simply, the West seeks to decapitate and destabilise. The Russians seek to strangle and supplant

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE

CDC Removes 24 Percent Of Child COVID-19 Deaths, Thousands Of Others

BY TYLER DURDEN

FRIDAY, MAR 18, 2022 – 03:00 PM

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has removed tens of thousands of deaths linked to COVID-19, including nearly a quarter of deaths it had listed in those under 18 years old.

The health agency quietly made the change on its data tracker website on March 15.

“Data on deaths were adjusted after resolving a coding logic error. This resulted in decreased death counts across all demographic categories,” the CDC says on the site.

The CDC relies on states and other jurisdictions to report COVID-19 deaths and acknowledges on its website that the data is not complete.

But the statistics are often cited by doctors and others when pushing for COVID-19 vaccination, including figures who believe virtually all children should be vaccinated. Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the CDC’s director, cited the tracker’s death total in November 2021 while pushing for an expert panel to advise her agency to recommend vaccination for all children 5- to 11-years-old.

Before the change, the CDC listed 1,755 children as dying from COVID-19 along with approximately 851,000 others, according to Kelley Krohnert, a Georgia resident who has been tracking the updates.

The update saw the CDC cut 416 deaths among children and over 71,000 elsewhere, arriving at a total of just under 780,000.

The agency declined to provide a comment by deadline.

The CDC previously adjusted its death count in August 2021 “after the identification of a data discrepancy.”

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NrZWxldG9uX2xvYWRpbmdfMTMzOTgiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoiY3RhIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19zcGFjZV9jYXJkIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9mZiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1504228703219470340&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fcovid-19%2Fcdc-removes-24-percent-child-covid-19-deaths-thousands-others&sessionId=8e33298f56d076b903f765d9c9f2db489263b9c6&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px

“The update is an improvement, but it’s at least the third correction to this data, and still does not solve the issue. It just highlights that people have been using a flawed source of data when discussing kids and COVID,” Krohnert told The Epoch Times in an email.

Some journalists and doctors have been citing the tracker data while others use a tally that is managed by the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) has been described by the agency as more reliable.

The NCHS tally, which is compiled from death certificates, currently lists 921 deaths involving COVID-19 among children and some 966,000 deaths involving COVID-19 among other age groups.

The deaths in the tally include people who died with COVID-19 and people who died from COVID-19, a CDC spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email in January. COVID-19 was listed as the underlying cause, or the primary death cause, on about 90 percent of death certificates at the time.

Some of the deaths listed by the CDC appear unrelated to COVID-19. For instance, several deaths have drowning as a cause of death; several others were listed as being from a gun discharge, according to an Epoch Times review of the death codes.

For now, the update on the tracker was described as “great news” by Dr. Alasdair Munro, a clinical research fellow for pediatric infectious diseases at University Hospital Southampton, given that nearly a quarter of the pediatric COVID-19 deaths had vanished.

But Munro, writing on social media, called it “slightly worrying that this data was being used widely in the US to guide or advocate for policy.”

Some people called for the CDC to issue a public apology or at least announce such updates, similar to how some lower-level agencies have made clear lowering their death counts.

“It’s outrageous to quietly footnote such a consequential error,” Jessica Adams, a former regulatory review officer at the Food and Drug Administration, said on Twitter.

A former CDC spokesperson, though, noted the CDC website outlines that the data are estimated and subject to change.

“There is much complexity involved in all systems that are trying to track and summarize illness and death data, including differences in how data are collected and reported, completeness and accuracy of data, how timely data is entered into data collection systems and reported to CDC, and in the assumptions made, and procedures used to determine whether COVID-19 was the primary cause of death, a contributing cause of death, or not likely a contributing factor in someone’s death,” Glen Nowak, the former spokesperson, who is now an associate dean for research and graduate studies at the University of Georgia, told The Epoch Times in an email.

“It is thus not surprising that adjustments or revisions happen, including as a result of coding-related issues (e.g., recognizing, as more cases and information are provided, that a better way to enter, analyze, and/or interpret the data existed).”

Nowak said he wasn’t surprised the CDC did not announce the adjustment, given the disclaimers, asserting that announcements by federal agencies “are best reserved for events or developments that have or could have significant impact on government recommendations or policies.”

ISSUES/GLOBAL ISSUES

COVID//GLOBAL

GLOBAL ISSUES

Here is Pozar’s article in full from last week.

It is well worth your time reading it

and special thanks to Kevin W for sending this to us:

Pozar’s article in full

Inbox

Harvey this 4 pages is filled with stuff not seen on ZH. Serious must read. And pass on

https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/content/dam/credit-suisse-research/SearchPDF?DocumentID=1191091&DocumentType=NR%20Publication&documentClick=true&AuthRequired=true&tagFormat=PDF&fbclid=IwAR35KiCUvVLtPYb8MJ0qHRoxD3uSAOgEJqdhsQj9FftgYOUsBxh0DKFmd3Y

end

VACCINE MANDATES/

Not good: reading ability of children plummets compared to pre -COVID times

(Watson/Summit News)

Reading Ability Of Children Plummets Compared To Pre-COVID Times

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 06:25 PM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

The reading ability of children has plummeted compared to pre-COVID times thanks to lockdown policies that led to the closure of schools, according to a new study.

“A study by researchers from TU Dortmund has found that German children in the fourth grade of primary school are far less capable of reading than their predecessors who passed through the grade pre-pandemic,” reports Breitbart.

A standard reading test taken by fourth graders from 2021 was compared to results using the same test from 2016.

The number of children who had a reading level rated “good” to “very good” has dropped by 7 per cent while over a quarter of students who took the test in 2021 now have problems with reading comprehension.

“If you express it in years of learning, the children are missing an average of half a year of learning,” said Dr. Ulrich Ludewig, who helped to lead the study.
“If the change in the composition of the student body is taken into account, the gap while slightly smaller, the significant decline in mean reading ability remains.”

With reading being a crucial aspect of every subject, the impact also had a knock on effect in other areas of learning.

The study once again highlights the devastating impact that COVID lockdowns had on children and the morally vacant position of those who supported them.

UNICEF previously warned that pandemic school closures led to a “nearly insurmountable scale of loss to children’s schooling” and that “intensive support” is needed to get kids back on track.

As we previously highlighted, for many children, the damage could be permanent.

Speech therapist Jaclyn Theek says that mask wearing during the pandemic has caused a 364% increase in patient referrals of babies and toddlers.

“They’re not making any word attempts and not communicating at all with their family,” she said, adding that symptoms of autism are also skyrocketing.

END

VACCINE INJURIES

9 in 10 COVID Deaths Are in Vaccinated People: Report

Inbox

Apart from the tragedy of untimely deaths , what happens to labor ?
https://www.theepochtimes.com/9-in-10-covid-deaths-are-in-vaccinated-people-report_4339503.htm

END

VACCINE IMPACT

Michael Every

Michael Every on the day’s major topics

How Does One Trade The Xi-Biden Call?

FRIDAY, MAR 18, 2022 – 09:51 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

‘Sol’ comfort

There has been a hyperbolic overreaction to cancel all things Russian in some Western circles way beyond economic sanctions: Tchaikovsky, Mussorgsky, Dostoevsky – all gone-ski. Sorry, but not in my household. ‘Pictures at an Exhibition’ remains one of my favourite pieces of classical music; Gogol is preferred to Google; and in times that try one’s soul, one of my sole comforts will remain Solzhenitsyn. Indeed, one of his quotes is sadly of supreme relevance today: “We know they are lying. They know they are lying. They know we know they are lying. We know they know we know they are lying. But they still lie.” In our hyper-polarised times, wherever you are on the political spectrum you probably see the validity of the statement – even if it came from Russia.

Without getting partisan there is one key example today. The Hunter Biden laptop –with its emails detailing corruption linked to Ukraine and China and “10% for the Big Guy”– was called fake news by The New York Times ahead of the last US presidential election; dismissed as “Russian disinformation” by 50 US intelligence officials; and the story banned by Twitter. (Remember when that kind of ban was shocking?) The New York Times belatedly now says the laptop is genuine.

Consider that, and Solzhenitsyn, when trading markets. For another example, this week has seen considerable efforts to start to partially price for peace between Russia and Ukraine. After all, some snippets of headlines on a Bloomberg screen said so! Throughout, I kept pointing out that the logic did not back that assessment. And what did we just see?

The advisor to President Zelenskiy @Podolyak tweet: “I would like to softly recommend the “active commentators of the negotiation process” who are NOT inside: Don’t spread your lies in a country that is at war. Negotiations are complicated. The positions of the parties are different. For us, fundamental issues are inviolable.”
‘Reports of Major Progress in Ukraine Talks ‘Wrong,’ Kremlin Says’;
The French say Russia is only pretending to negotiate;
Ukrainian media claiming Russia wants to ship in 40,000 Syrians to fight;
The Financial Times say ’US pours cold water on hopes of diplomatic solution in Ukraine’; and
‘Russia claims Bosnia could suffer same fate as Ukraine if it decides to join NATO’ – and please recall I have been warning that the pot was being stirred in the Balkans too.

I know, I know, it’s frustrating that this isn’t over yet for those traders with ADHD or better things to be doing or better prices on their books needed. I know it’s annoying to point out that the Siege of Sarajevo lasted three years; or that the Syrian civil war is still raging after 11, and half of its population became refugees, which if transcribed across to Ukraine would mean 10 times the population flows we have seen so far. Or that there are potentially very awkward geopolitical links between Syria and Ukraine and the US, Russia, and Iran that far exceed the level of ‘whocouldanooed?!’ faux innocence related to the Hunter Biden laptop.

But it really isn’t over yet. Today, we wake in Asia to Western military intelligence underlining that the Russian invasion has slowed to a crawl, while its level of destruction has consequently increased, and as such the underlying economic equation of the war, if there ever was one, is further undermined: is Russia going to rebuild even parts of Ukraine supposing it were to win? (On which, see here.) If not, the policy is either one of deliberate ruination of a nation, or points towards escalation ahead to shift the military, political, and economic dials.

Indeed, we also see high-level US warnings of a potential Russian chemical attack or even a tactical nuclear one: ‘Putin May Play Nuclear Card if War Drags on: US’ as Bloomberg puts it, echoing geostrategic logic I have been stressing from the day it became clear he could not win conventionally as planned. Open signals intelligence yesterday showed Kremlin planes heading to parts of Siberia widely regarded as the location for underground nuclear bunkers. Of course, the transponders would not be on if this was a real escape; that they are shows Russia is warning which direction it might still head in, or wants us to think they will, if they cannot get what they want on the ground. “We know they are lying. They know they are lying. They know we know they are lying. We know they know we know they are lying. But they still lie.” But what do we do if the use of nuclear weapons is the lie now?

We already know what one bank analyst says: buy stocks, because if you are short and there is no nuclear war it’s ‘far worse’ –in market terms– than being long and having one. There is mad logic to that view… unless this isn’t about nuclear war, but nuclear blackmail – and if it might just work. Because if it does, the global economy and markets will be reshaped even more than they already are being.

Meanwhile, financial markets are also focusing on the fact that central banks are perhaps already back-pedalling (for example, the Bank of England was less hawkish than some had expected yesterday – see here for more from Stefan Koopman) – which is bullish. They are not focusing on the fact that the LME is still in total chaos due to the war and sanctions, with nickel trading breaking down again, and we see a warning that ‘Too-Big-to-Fail Risk Looms Over Commodities’. Indeed, it’s one thing for a financialised economy to create CDOs, and then CDOs squared and CDOs cubed – but how is this supposed to work for things you actually need to *eat*, like wheat, or to *make things*, like nickel? The short answer is – it isn’t. And yet Wall Street is now piling into the markets that are literally the very bread of life.

No, broader markets are instead focusing on the fact that Russia did not default on its sovereign debt after all. On which note, allow me to quote Adam Tooze’s must-read chartbook:

“So, Russia is not defaulting after all? As of 20 minutes ago the news is that JP Morgan processed interest payments from the Russian government. Acting as Russia’s correspondent bank, JP Morgan will pass the $117 million in coupon payments to Citigroup, who as the payment agent will distribute the money to investors. The US Treasury signed off on the payment as not violating sanctions.
On the news, the price of a Russian dollar bond maturing in 2043 surged to 47 cents on the dollar, versus 20 cents a week ago. 47 cents on the dollar is hardly bad considering that we are perched on the edge of World War III. But is this time to rejoice? Surely not.
If you invest in Russia to open hamburger franchises or Ikea’s stores, or to build cars, you are hoping to profit by selling daily necessities to ordinary Russian consumers, pretty much as you would anywhere else. If you invest in Russian government debt what are you hoping to profit from? As I argue in a piece that appeared in the Guardian earlier today, you are investing in Putin’s regime, warts and all.” (And I strongly recommend the linked article.)

Of course, the same is true for *every* government bond. For all the highfalutin market talk about the wonders of ESG, we don’t get much scrutiny of the domestic or foreign policies various governments spend internationally borrowed funds on. Does war now represent a new red line if we are seeing a more moral market in action? If so, how about preparation for a war, which would surely be a better time to act – but how does one know when this is real and when it is just a bluff? What a minefield. So, far easier to ‘do a Solzhenitsyn’, pass moral judgements to those who set the bond investment benchmark, and then say “whocouldanooed?” if a country subsequently gets marked down to zero for its actions, or opts to default – which at least means everyone else in the industry following said benchmark fails conventionally with you, as Keynes put it. (And see another headline today: ‘China Credit Investors Face Billions in Losses, Shrinking Power’.)

Against this backdrop, US President Biden is holding an urgent call with China’s Xi Jinping. The US readout states it will be about Ukraine and “managing the competition” between the two economic giants. That’s a phrase that even in English alone has multiple interpretations. If it came from the mouth of an EU bureaucrat it would mean one thing; from the Russian mafia, another altogether. And this is as Bloomberg reports ‘Biden Team Hardens View of China Tilting Toward Putin on Ukraine’:

“Even as the Chinese government publicly voices some support for the Ukrainian people and calls for a peaceful solution, top American officials see signs that China is seeking ways to soften the blow of sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and its allies, according to the people, who say they have knowledge of deliberations in Beijing. The people, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter, did not offer details on how China might be able to offset the economic consequences of the sanctions. They also declined to elaborate on US sources of information about China’s government and its interactions with the Kremlin. Some of the people said China is also considering supplying Russia with weapons such as armed drones….

In his call with Xi, Biden is expected to try to persuade his Chinese counterpart to back away from any support for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his war. The stakes are potentially ground-shifting, after a six-hour meeting on Monday in Rome in which White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan warned China’s top diplomat, Politburo member Yang Jiechi, of serious consequences should Beijing support Russia through its banks or on the battlefield….

But US officials currently don’t know China’s true intentions toward Russia and Ukraine, according to diplomatic correspondence seen by Bloomberg. China could regard the war as an opportunity to exploit Russia’s growing economic dependence, such as by buying up strategic assets or making other efforts to damage the West’s leverage. Beijing’s position is ambiguous and contradictory, and recent exchanges with U.S. officials –including Yang’s Rome meeting with Sullivan– have produced little clarity, according to the correspondence…

The relationship between the world’s two economic titans is fraught, and the Ukraine crisis has highlighted the mistrust between them. The US and China now find themselves drawn into a conflict provoked by a country, Russia, that once was so close to the Western world as to host the Group of Eight, but that has for years been drifting into Beijing’s orbit.”

So how does one trade that kind of binary? First, to recognize that if the call goes well, markets will take it as positive even if D.C. is now filled with China hawks and far more will almost certainly arrive in the 2022 and 2024 elections; second, to recognise that if the call goes badly, markets will take it as a huge negative – and rightly so; and third, to recognise that what we are told happened on the call might not be the whole story anyway.

I conclude yet again with my ‘Sol’ comfort: “We know they are lying. They know they are lying. They know we know they are lying. We know they know we know they are lying. But they still lie.” And markets happily swallow it, it seems.

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil guru, Pierre Andurand sees $200 oil by year end.

(zerohedge)

Andurand Sees $200 Oil By Year-End As Biden Sends SPR To Record Lows

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 06:05 PM

Pierre Andurand, founder of Andurand Capital Management, has had a turbulent few years (as we have most recently noted here (up 154% in 2020) and here (worst year ever in 2018). And now the energy complex wunderkind sees a path for crude oil to get to $200 by the end of the year as historically tight markets struggle to ramp up production and replace lost supply from Russia.

On the latest episode of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast, Andurand warns that Russian oil will likely be out of the market even if Putin agrees some sort of imminent ceasefire with Ukraine.

“I don’t think that suddenly they stop fighting, the oil comes back. It’s not going to be the case. The oil’s going to be gone for good,” he said.
“We’ll have to live with higher prices to keep demand down, for it to be treated a bit more as a luxury product and also to accelerate the energy transition.”

He estimates some 4 million barrels per day have been taken out of circulation as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent restrictions on doing business with the Putin government. While releasing oil from strategic petroleum reserves could help boost supply in the short-term, it’s likely that the energy industry won’t be able to increase capacity to fully offset the lost barrels.

And to put that in context, whatever President Biden’s cunning SPR-Release plan is meant to be doing… it’s not working…

Source: Bloomberg

That wasn’t supposed to happen!

While overall levels of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since 2002; in terms of actual days supply, we are very near record lows of just 33 days (based on implied demand)…

Source: Bloomberg

Andurand concluded that tighter supplies of commodities will “actually cap the type of economic goals we will be able to have.”

“A lot of people just assume, you know, in their economic model that we can have as much of a commodity as we want. It’s just a question of demand. But no, this time it’ll be supply constraint.”

As he details in the podcast, supply is so tight that some market participants might struggle to deliver physical crude even as spot prices soar.

“So for example, let’s say during the Covid times when the demand suddenly collapsed 20% overnight, we built a lot of inventories over a short period of time. And, you know, the infrastructure of the market, you know, was not built to withstand those kind of events of losing 20% of the world’s demand overnight. So the level of empty storage actually could only take one and a half months of this really low demand before all the tanks were full. And so in April 2020, when all the tanks were full, basically if there’s still some production that needs to be moved. Nobody can buy that oil and that’s where prices can go negative.
And as you say, when we’re in the opposite scenario where inventories are very low and there are places in the world where a delivery of certain contracts, such as Cushing in Oklahoma for WTI, where the tanks are all empty and there’s no oil in those tanks anymore. If somebody is long futures and tries to take delivery of oil at that place and that point in time, well, nobody can deliver, and then you can go to any price. So generally what happens is that’s where the kind of so-called speculators are in the middle to help make the price move enough so that we’re never in a situation where either the tanks are full or either the tanks are empty.
So it means, somehow it means, you know, that prices have not gone up fast enough and for long enough to either bring more extra supply or actually reduce demand before we run out of inventories. And that’s where sometimes people wonder, you know what is the role of speculators? I mean, it’s actually price discovery and also giving the right signals to producers and consumers in order not to run out of storage capacity or not to run out of inventories, because then prices can go anywhere…”

Ultimately, Bloomberg notes that Andurand sees the $200 level where we start to get actual demand destruction, and a potential balancing of the market.

“I think, like close to $200 a barrel — so much higher than today. I feel like there’s no demand destruction at $110 a barrel and we’ll have to go significantly higher before demand can go down by enough. But that’s also assuming there’s no government mandate and some kind of confinement, where let’s say two days a month, we are not doing anything. And we are in confinement for two days a month. I mean, there could be some solutions like that to bring demand down, but if there’s no government mandate, then I think that around $200 oil will be enough to bring demand to balance the market.”

While $200 seems like an extremely high number, Bloomberg notes that others in the industry also think it’s possible. In January, commodity trader Doug King said a barrel could hit that level within five years. Nigeria’s oil minister has also said it could get that high before falling back into the $150 range.

Listen to the full podcast here.

END

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia//// NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

BRAZIL

END

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.1037 DOWN .0062 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL RED

USA/ YEN 119.01 UP .525 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3138 DOWN 0.0031

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 36.03 PTS OR 1.12%

Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 88 88PTS OR 0.41%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.66% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 88.88 PTS OR 0.41%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 36.03 PTS OR 1.12%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.66%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 174.54 PTS OR 0.65%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1937.20

silver:$25.27-

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 98.37 UP 40 CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.17% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.208% UP 0 AND 4/10 BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.31%// DOWN 3 in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 1.88 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 57 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +0.360% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.52% AND NOW ABOVE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1030 DOWN .0069 or 69 basis points

USA/Japan: 119.23 UP 0.749 OR YEN DOWN 75 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3149 DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP 3 BASIS pts to 1.2628

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED )..DOWN 6.3612

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.3733

TURKISH LIRA: 14.82 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.208

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.147% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.416 DOWN 6 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.39 UP 41 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 2.53PTS OR 0.03%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 59.06 POINTS OR 0.41%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 20.40PTS OR 0.31%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 40.20PTS OR 0.48%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 69.10 PTS OR 0.29%

WTI Oil price 103.58 12: EST

Brent Oil: 106.51 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE FALLS TO: 104.62 DOWN 2 RUBLES/DOLLAR (RUBLE DOWN BY 2 BASIS PTS )

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.360

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.1055 DOWN .0044 OR DOWN 44 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3185 UP .0026 or UP 26 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 119.11 UP 0.625

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2595 DOWN .0036 (CDN dollar UP 36 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 104.57

Brent OIL: 107.74

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.144 DOWN 3 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.416 DOWN 6 pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.82

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA///USA/ ROUBLE: 107.50 UP 4.75ROUBLES (ROUBLE DOWN 4.75 ROUBLES/USA )//

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 244.24 PTS OR 0.71%

NASDAQ 100 UP 301.48 PTS OR 2.14%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 24.05 DOWN 1.62 PTS OR 6.31%

GLD: 179.30 DOWN 1.59 PTS OR 0.88%

SLV/ 23.02 DOWN .31 PTS OR 1.33%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks Squeeze To Best Week Since 2020 Election As Fed Cranks Hawkishness To ’11’

FRIDAY, MAR 18, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Bearing in mind that all of the catalysts for the sell-off – Russia-Ukraine, COVID lockdown in China, accelerating inflation, Fed tightening – are all still happening as we exit the week, we present you with this week’s US equity market performance. The Nasdaq soared over 8% this week (that’s almost 11% off the mid-week lows prior to The Fed’s rate-hike), up over 1% each of the last four days (up 2% today). The rest of the majors also exploded higher…

This is the US equity market’s best week since the 2020 Election (week of Nov 6th).

All the majors moved back up to their 50DMA (Nasdaq barely made it)…

However, given that a very negative consensus was building across risk assets, perhaps this week’s rip-roaring short-squeeze-driven rally is not surprising at all. “Most Shorted” stocks exploded 17% higher off the Tuesday lows…

Source: Bloomberg

This was the biggest weekly short-squeeze since Jan 2021 and this is visualizing what shorts did this week…

https://youtube.com/watch?v=X1UcEUsDAz4%3Fstart%3D46

After all the recent bloodbathery, Cathie Wood’s ARKK had its best week ever…

Source: Bloomberg

As did Chinese tech (KWEB)…

Source: Bloomberg

DEAD CAT BOUNCE much?

VIX was puked along with all the hedge unwinds and is now trading over 7 vols below pre-Putin-Invasion levels…

Don’t forget today was a triple witch with $3.5 trillion in options expiring and dramatic amounts of gamma unclenching. As SpotGamma noted earlier, this is starting to look a lot like January…

While US Stocks remain below pre-Putin-invasion levels, European stocks have erased all the losses now… (as if it never happened)…

Source: Bloomberg

Today saw the strong revival of the ‘recession trade’ as Waller’s call for a 50bps hike at every meeting going forward suddenly seemed to shock the algos back to reality, prompting value stocks to be puked in favor of growth…

Source: Bloomberg

Fed’s Waller was extremely hawkish pre-market and we got some disappointingly ugly housing data, which helped push the yield curve further into inversion across the belly of the curve.

Source: Bloomberg

All Treasury yields were higher this week but the long-end significantly outperformed (thus the curve flattening)…

Source: Bloomberg

FRA/OIS and our global dollar liquidity proxy both ‘improved’ this week on the back of commodity bailouts, but it’s a bit premature to call the stressors over…

Source: Bloomberg

Especially with The Fed cranking up the hawkishness to ’11’… Which the market seems convinced will guarantee a recession and spark multiple rate-cuts…

Source: Bloomberg

5Y Breakevens surged to new record highs this week (suggesting The Fed will fail also) before reversing intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

All occurring as global stagflation fears soar…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum soared higher this week (back up near the $3000 level), following the successful test of its ‘merge’ to Proof-of-Work, dramatically outperforming its crypto peers…

Source: Bloomberg

And if forward inflation expectations are anything to go by – as they have been – ETH has a long way to go…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was clubbed like a baby seal this week…

Source: Bloomberg

Copper managed gains this week but both Crude and PMs were lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold bounced later in the week but ended only marginally above pre-Putin levels…

Similar picture for WTI, which bounced back above $100…

Finally, the ‘rally round the flag’ bounce in Biden’s approval rating has been erased!

Source: Bloomberg

We’re gonna need more escalation!

And if there’s more escalation, it appears diamonds are a Russian billionaire’s girls best friend…

Source: Bloomberg

1 Carat Fine diamonds are up 50% as perhaps the easier way to move large amounts of wealth without confiscation fears?

END

I)LAST NIGHT /MORNING TRADING

Stocks Slip After-Hours As US Intel Chief Warns Of Russian ‘Nuclear Threats’

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 04:52 PM

After a strong day in stocks – which followed two days of big gains – US futures are fading after hours following the release of a report from US Defense Intelligence Agency claiming that Putin can be expected to brandish threats to use nuclear weapons against the West if stiff Ukrainian resistance to Russia’s invasion continues

“Protracted occupation of parts of Ukrainian territory threatens to sap Russian military manpower and reduce their modernized weapons arsenal, while consequent economic sanctions will probably throw Russia into prolonged economic depression and diplomatic isolation,” Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said in its new 67-page summary of worldwide threats.

The combination of Ukraine’s defiance and economic sanctions will threaten Russia’s “ability to produce modern precision-guided munitions,” Berrier said in a statement prepared for the House Armed Services Committee.

“As this war and its consequences slowly weaken Russian conventional strength,” Berrier added, “Russia likely will increasingly rely on its nuclear deterrent to signal the West and project strength to its internal and external audiences.”

The reaction – after ignoring hawlish comments from Blinken earlier in the day – is clear as US equity futures give back half of their gains for the day…

Bear in mind, this latest report follows Putin’s decision to put his nuclear deterrence forces “on alert,“ and echoes comments from the heads of the CIA, FBI, NSA, Defense Intelligence Agency and the Director of National Intelligence who all spoke at a House Select Committee on Intelligence hearing warning that Putin is ‘desperate’ to end the conflict over Ukraine, with some privately suggesting he could set off a tactical nuclear weapon in a Ukrainian city to get the job done. And then there was United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday soundiong the alarm over Russia raising the alert level for its nuclear forces, describing it a ‘bone-chilling development’ and added that the prospect of nuclear conflict was back within realm of possibility,” according to Reuters.

END

AFTERNOON

Yield Curve Inverts, Prices In Multiple Rate-Cuts After Fed’s Waller Goes Full Hawktard

FRIDAY, MAR 18, 2022 – 09:59 AM

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he decided to support a quarter-point hike because geopolitical events called for caution, even though the data were “screaming” for a half-point rise. However, Waller, speaking Friday in an interview on CNBC, said he would like to “front-load” interest-rate hikes:

“I really favor front-loading our rate hikes, that we need to do more withdrawal of accommodation now if we want to have an impact on inflation later this year and next year,” he told CNBC’s Steve Liesman during a live “Squawk Box” interview.
“So in that sense, the way to front-load it is to pull some rate hikes forward, which would imply 50 basis points at one or multiple meetings in the near future.”

In addition to the rate hikes, Waller said he thinks the Fed needs to start reducing its bond holdings soon.

“We’re in a different place than we were before,” he said.
“We have a much bigger balance sheet, the economy’s in a much different position. Inflation is raging. So, we’re in a position where we could actually draw down a large amount of liquidity out of the system without really doing much damage.”

The reaction to Waller’s hawkish comments was swift with the market pricing in a Fed rate above 2.00% by year-end 2022, but as the chart below shows, that surge in rates is correspondingly being met by a market now expecting a recession and pricing in more than 2 rate-cuts in 2023/24…

Source: Bloomberg

As the chart above shows, rate-cuts did not start to get priced in until Fed rate-hike expectations topped 1.50% (which in and of itself is quite pathetic), but if The Fed expects to fight double-digit inflation with a Fed rate of 2.00% and no QT, then we have a bridge they might be interested in.

The rest of the yield curve is “screaming” (to borrow from Waller’s parlance) that The Fed is about to commit a major policy error as 3/5s, 3s10s, 5s10s, 7s10s, and 20s30s are all now inverted…

This will not end well…

END

II)USA data

Existing Home Sales Tumble On ‘Double Whammy’ Of Soaring Prices, Rising Mortgage Rates

FRIDAY, MAR 18, 2022 – 10:14 AM

Existing home sales plunged a bigger than expected 7.2% MoM in February – the biggest MoM drop in existing home sales since May 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

Home sales remain lower YoY (-2.43%) for the seventh straight month, tumbling to a 6.02mm SAAR (after hitting the highest in a year in January). Notably, as the chart below shows, Existing home sales surge in January was an outlier compared to new- and pending-sales, so perhaps this is payback…

Source: Bloomberg

This is a six-month low for existing home sales… and it will likely get worse as these are deals that were likely set in December when mortgage rates were significantly lower…

The median existing-home price for all housing types in February was $357,300, up 15.0% from February 2021 ($310,600), as prices grew in each region.

This marks 120 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.

“Housing affordability continues to be a major challenge, as buyers are getting a double whammy: rising mortgage rates and sustained price increases,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.
“Some who had previously qualified at a 3% mortgage rate are no longer able to buy at the 4% rate.

Even the NAR is rubbishing the Government’s CPI data…

“Monthly payments have risen by 28% from one year ago – which interestingly is not a part of the consumer price index – and the market remains swift with multiple offers still being recorded on most properties.”

The most expensive homes are seeing the biggest increases in sales while lower-priced home-sales are crashing…

Yun is full of hope however, expecting prices to adjust (lower) to improve affordability…

“The sharp jump in mortgage rates and increasing inflation is taking a heavy toll on consumers’ savings,” he said. “However, I expect the pace of price appreciation to slow as demand cools and as supply improves somewhat due to more home construction.”

The slide in sales reflects a market still constrained by a lack of inventory. At the current pace it would take 1.7 months to sell all the homes on the market, close to a record low.

First-time buyers accounted for 29% of sales last month, down from 31% a year earlier.

Existing home sales fell in every geographical region with the Northeast worst:

Existing-home sales in the Northeast slipped 11.5% in February, registering an annual rate of 690,000, a 12.7% drop from February 2021. The median price in the Northeast was $383,700, up 7.1% from one year ago.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest sagged 11.3% from the prior month to an annual rate of 1,330,000 in February, a 1.5% decrease from February 2021. The median price in the Midwest was $248,900, a 7.5% climb from February 2021.
Existing-home sales in the South fell 5.1% in February from the prior month, posting an annual rate of 2,790,000, an increase of 3.0% from one year ago. The median price in the South was $318,800, an 18.1% jump from one year prior. For the sixth straight month, the South experienced the highest pace of price appreciation compared to the other regions.
Existing-home sales in the West slid 4.7% from the previous month, reporting an annual rate of 1,210,000 in February, down 8.3% from one year ago. The median price in the West was $512,600, up 7.1% from February 2021.

And NAR has a message for you…

“For the past couple of years, buyers have had to contend with a market of high demand, low inventory and a mix of uncertainties with COVID-19 protocols,” said NAR President Leslie Rouda Smith, a Realtor® from Plano, Texas, and a broker associate at Dave Perry-Miller Real Estate in Dallas.
“Consumers are presently challenged with higher mortgage rates, so now, more than ever, interested buyers need the trusted expertise of Realtors® in order to navigate this current market.”

Don’t forget – Realtor’s Luxurious Lives Matter too?

END

end

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

New COVID czar as cases wane

(zerohedge)

White House Appoints New COVID Czar As Cases Wane

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 06:45 PM

As COVID cases have declined dramatically across the US (although there have been some signs about a potential resurgence via wastewater monitoring), the Biden Administration has selected a new COVID czar who will be responsible with overseeing America’s return to the office (or at least so the Biden Administration hopes). Ashish Jha

Public health expert Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, will take over as the White House’s top COVID advisor be tasked with helping workplaces and schools “cope with COVID” as millions of workers and students readjust to in-person work and education, while also preparing for possible future waves and variants. Jha previously led research into the Ebola virus and has regularly served as a medical expert on television shows.

The change comes as Pfizer and Moderna push for the authorization of a fourth COVID booster for Americans.

Jha will succeed Jeffrey Zients, a former director of the National Economic Council during the Obama Administration, as the White House coronavirus coordinator.

President Biden thanked Zients for his service, and praised Jha as one of the country’s leading public-health experts.

“Jeff spent the last 14 months working tirelessly to help combat COVID,” Biden said. “He is a man of service and an expert manager. I will miss his counsel and I’m grateful for his service.”
[…]
“Dr. Jha is one of the leading public health experts in America, and a well-known figure to many Americans from his wise and calming public presence,” Biden said. “And as we enter a new moment in the pandemic — executing on my National Covid-19 Preparedness Plan and managing the ongoing risks from Covid — Dr. Jha is the perfect person for the job.”

But as Bloomberg noted, the change comes as Western Europe and South Korea have reported case spikes in recent days, suggesting the possibility of a fresh wave of infections.

The change comes as the White House has been plagued by recent COVID infections.

Vice President Kamala Harris’s husband, Doug Emhoff and eight House Democrats tested positive for coronavirus infections in recent days, and Biden’s plans to celebrate St. Patrick’s Day with Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin were thrown into turmoil when the taoiseach tested positive on Wednesday. The White House has said the president is not a close contact of any of the individuals, and that he tested negative on Sunday.

While Dr. Anthony Fauci has been the government official most closely associated with the COVID pandemic, he is technically the president’s chief medical advisor, along with his longtime role as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

One of Jha’s first tasks will be convincing Congress to approve new funding for the response. The administration sought $22.5 billion as part of an omnibus government funding package but talks collapsed as Republicans demanded spending offsets and questioned the need for new funds.

end

He is back!! Fauci warns that the new COVID variant could prompt more lockdowns

(zerohedge)

“We Can’t Just Say We’re Done” – Dr. Fauci Warns New COVID Variant Could Prompt More Lockdowns In US

FRIDAY, MAR 18, 2022 – 11:26 AM

As a resurgence in COVID cases in Western Europe prompts speculation about a similar rebound in the US, Dr. Anthony Fauci took to CNN yesterday to warn that Americans could still face another round of lockdowns if the latest COVID variant (or subvariant, in this case) causes infections – and, more importantly, hospitalizations and deaths – to rebound.

The subject of the interview was BA.2, the newest subvariant of the omicron variant. Dr. Fauci said that a combination of waning immunity and easing restrictions could create the conditions fo a bump in new US cases.

“If in fact we do see a turnaround and a resurgence, we have to be able to pivot and go back to any degree of mitigation that is commensurate with what the situation is,” Fauci said.
“We can’t just say, ‘We’re done. We’re going to move on.’ We’ve got to be able to be flexible because we’re dealing with a dynamic situation.'”

Dr. Fauci added that the rate of mortality observed in the UK has been much lower than the original omicron variant. He noted that the US typically tails the UK by two or three weeks.

“The overall mortality is actually down,” Fauci said. “It’s a very interesting situation where the cases are going up, but it does not, at this point in time, appear to be any degree of severity.”
“We generally follow what goes on the UK by about two to three weeks,” he added. “I would not be surprised in the next few weeks, given the fact that we’ve begun to open up, and we have an increase in the BA.2 variant, that we’ll be seeing an increase in cases.”

The US recorded about 45,015 new cases over the past day, with about 1,943 new deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The US hit an all-time record of well over a million new infections every day.

Speaking Friday morning in an interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box, Dr. Scott Gottlieb – who once appeared on the cable news network virtually every day during the depths o the pandemic – returned to offer some insights on the latest wave of infections caused by BA.2.

Meanwhile, WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that the rise of the new variant was just the “tip of the iceberg,” warning that COVID cases will grow in the coming weeks.

end

iiia) USA inflation//SHIPPING commentaries//LOG JAMS//

“There’s A Revolt” – Retailers Reach Limits On Prices Increases As Consumers Pushback

FRIDAY, MAR 18, 2022 – 03:20 PM

The inconvenient truth about persistent inflation at four-decade highs is wage gains for average workers have evaporated. Even though wages are increasing, inflation is going up much faster. That means purchasing power for consumers is reduced, and consumer goods companies are on thin ice as to how much they can raise prices until consumers alter spending habits.

Macy’s Inc. CEO Jeff Gennette recently told WSJ they tried to raise prices on some mattresses and sofas by $100 and were met with fierce consumer push back. Clothing brand Bella Dahl hiked shirt prices by $20 and immediately saw sales crater. “There was a revolt,” said Steven Millman, Bella Dahls’ brand officer. “If we go any higher, we’ll do half the sales.”

Some department stores and apparel retailers are hitting thresholds for how much they can raise prices. There was very little resistance from consumers as inflation began to rise over the last year. Now, inflation levels are the highest since 1982, and industry executives and analysts believe a price ceiling could be nearing as any higher would suggest demand destruction, sending consumers into hibernation mode.

The propaganda headlines about working power and rising wages by the Biden administration in the midterm year obscures the fact that wages have less buying power as inflation runs rampant.

Retail sales slowed in February over January, according to the Commerce Department. Compared with February 2021, sales jumped 17.7%, but much of that is due to soaring gasoline and food prices.

Neil Saunders, managing director at research firm GlobalData, said there is “some trading down with more shoppers turning to value players for some of their purchases in the apparel industry.” He said, “this is likely in response to squeezed budgets.”

Market research firm NPD Group said sales of apparel, footwear, toys, and sports equipment slumped in nine of the ten weeks between Dec. 26 to Mar. 5, compared with last year’s same period. NPD surveyed consumers who said if prices continue to rise, they will restrict spending.

“We see less demand as consumers pay higher prices,” said Marshal Cohen, NPD’s chief retail industry adviser. “Price sensitivity is starting to show up. There is a threshold that consumers don’t want to go over.”

The problem of inflation crushing wage gains is likely to persist through 2022. This comes as discount department store chains, such as Walmart, Target, and other big-box retailers, hike prices rather than rolling out promotions.

Retailers are trying to figure out how far prices can rise from here without losing customers. The latest pushback from consumers may suggest prices are at a triggering point of demand destruction.

end

iiib) USA economic stories

Houston Texas is now in a war zone due to Biden’s southern border policies

special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:

Tucker: This is a highly dangerous situation – YouTube

Inbox

Thanks to the Biden crowd

end

iv)swamp stories

Chris Cuomo Goes Scorched Earth On CNN, Demands $125 Million

THURSDAY, MAR 17, 2022 – 04:40 PM

Fired CNN lead anchor Chris Cuomo has filed an arbitration claim for $125 million in compensation from the company, arguing that he was “wrongfully terminated” and that the network made him “the scapegoat” over a broader scandal regarding how CNN dealt with he and his brother – disgraced New York Governor Andrew Cuomo – which culminated in last month’s ouster of network president Jeff Zucker and his longtime lover / lieutenant, Allison Gollust.

Cuomo’s attorney argued that CNN also “violated the express terms of his employment agreement by allowing its employees to disparage him,” according to the Washington Post.

Since his dismissal, Cuomo’s team has insisted that CNN’s top brass was always aware of the role he played in helping then-New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, even while Zucker told employees that he was misled on this point by Chris Cuomo, formerly a close friend.

In their filing, Cuomo’s lawyers argued “an apparent rush to judgement and caving to uninformed public and internal pressure that was based on speculation and assumption rather than facts.” -WaPo

Cuomo’s $125 million request includes $15 million remaining from his CNN contract, as well as “decades of earnings” they argue he’ll now be deprived of, as “CNN’s calculated efforts to tar and feather him” rendered him “untouchable in the world of broadcast journalism.”

The filing also accuses CNN execs of being giant hypocrites – accusing them of essentially the same ethical transgressions that brought Cuomo down.

Cuomo drew scrutiny after he interviewed his embattled brother – an obvious attempt at PR and damage control in the wake of multiple scandals that eventually brought the NY governor down. Cuomo’s team, however, claims that CNN leadership “demanded” he conduct the interviews, “despite Cuomo’s and Gov. Cuomo’s expressed reservations.”

Last March, The Washington Post reported that Gov. Cuomo arranged for his brother and other well-connected people to get special access to state-administered coronavirus tests early in the pandemic, when tests were hard to come by. In the filing, Chris Cuomo’s lawyers claim that Zucker and Gollust also “demanded priority testing from Gov. Cuomo’s administration,” and that the governor’s staff “felt it had no choice but to fulfill” because of their “power over [Chris] Cuomo’s career.” Zucker and Gollust declined to comment on the claim.

The filing also alleged that Zucker and Gollust “acted as advisors” to then-Gov. Cuomo and provided him “with talking points and strategies,” a charge that both have previously denied. -WaPo

What a dumpster fire.

END

400 Bulletproof Vests Destined For Ukraine Stolen In NYC: Officials

FRIDAY, MAR 18, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

Thieves stole about 400 bulletproof vests that were supposed to be sent to humanitarian workers in Ukraine, officials said.

The bulletproof vests were stolen from the Ukrainian Congress Committee of America, a nonprofit organization based in Manhattan, the New York Police Department confirmed to news outlets on Wednesday.

“People right now in our community, they’re either in church praying or everyone is feeling disenfranchised. They have no power right now, and then this happens, and that absolutely affects people,” Ukrainian Congress Committee of America spokesman Andrij Dobriansky told NBC 4.

Police responded to a call of a burglary at around 9:15 a.m. before they “were informed that approximately 400 bulletproof vests were removed from the location,” NYPD Sergeant Edward Riley told the outlet.

He said that those vests were meant to be sent to medics, aid workers, and others—but not Ukrainian military members.

“Who isn’t being supplied are territorial defenses, the people who are getting humanitarian supplies across. So these kinds of donations—whether they come from Suffolk County, we have a lot of police precincts in New Jersey and upstate New York also donating, these are why it’s important,” said Dobriansky.
“As far as we can tell, maybe about three-quarters of that supply was taken last night,” added Dobriansky.

New York’s Suffolk County Sheriff’s Office told the New York Post that it donated vests to the group but wouldn’t confirm the 400 vests that were stolen were the ones that it had donated.

“While we cannot confirm that the items the Suffolk County Sheriff’s Office donated are the items in question, it is despicable that someone would break into a building and steal supplies and materials intended to aid those affected by this humanitarian crisis,” a spokesperson told the paper. “We offer the NYPD any assistance it needs in locating these stolen items.”

Vicki DiStefano, another spokesperson for the Suffolk County Sheriff’s Office, told local media that it is “despicable that someone would break into a building to steal supplies and materials intended to aid” individuals who were affected during a humanitarian crisis.

Since the start of the Feb. 24 conflict, a number of NATO countries, including the United States, have also deployed weapons, ammunition, and other military supplies to Ukraine’s military. The White House and NATO, however, have said that no troops will be deployed, and establishing a no-fly zone over the country is not being considered.

Other details about the incident were not provided. It’s not clear if anything else was stolen.

END

Lawyer For Mother Of Hunter Biden’s Daughter Says He Expects President’s Son To Be Indicted

FRIDAY, MAR 18, 2022 – 07:30 AM

The past few weeks have been tough for Hunter Biden and, by extension, the rest of the Biden family. On March 1, news broke that Hunter Biden’s longtime business partner and friend Devon Archer was sentenced to a year in federal prison for defrauding a Native American tribe. Then just yesterday, the New York Times published an investigation revealing that although the younger Biden had paid his outstanding tax liability – which was reportedly greater than $1 million, and which required him to take out a loan to pay it off – a federal investigation into his failure to pay taxes on his earnings from overseas has continued.

Much lower in the NYT story, America’s “paper of record” mentioned the laptop belonging to Hunter Biden that was reportedly abandoned at a computer repair shop, and subsequently became the heart of a NY Post story published shortly before the 2020 election (which was subsequently ignored by the MSM because of unfounded rumors that the materials had been stolen by Russian hackers, or that the laptop itself was some kind of plant). It didn’t only mention the laptop, but also confirmed that it was authentic. We previously reported on how the NYT sued to obtain copies of emails mentioning Biden and his exploits allegedly gleaned from Romanian embassy officials.

And in the latest blow to the reputation of the president’s perennially troubled son, a lawyer for the mother of Hunter Biden’s 3-year-old daughter (who was born out of wedlock to a woman who allegedly slept with the younger Biden while working as an exotic dancer) said during an interview with CNBC that he expects the younger Biden “to be indicted” for tax fraud.

Attorney Clint Lancaster told CNBC that his client, Lunden Roberts, had recently testified in Delaware before a federal grand jury in the criminal investigation into the 52-year-old presidential scion. The lawyer based his commentary on “what I saw” in Biden’s financial records.

Lancaster said he and Roberts were interviewed by an assistant U.S. attorney, an FBI agent and an IRS agent — “one that carries a badge and gun” — more than a year ago about Biden in Little Rock, Ark., where Lancaster practices law.
“I expect him to be indicted,” the lawyer said about Biden. “Just based on what I saw in his financial records, I would be surprised if he’s not indicted.”

Lancaster later added that neither he nor his client want Hunter Biden to go to jail.

“It’s not my goal, much to the unhappiness of many people in the Republican Party,” said Lancaster, a supporter of former President Donald Trump who in late 2020 worked on a legal challenge to results that showed Biden had won the state of Wisconsin that year.

He also confirmed that the younger Biden hadn’t visited his 3-year-old daughter with Roberts, “which is sad because the baby looks like him, with blonde hair.” He also explained that he had come into possession of a vast trove of the younger Biden’s financial records as part of his work on Roberts’ child-support suit. When asked about the number of records, Lancaster said it was around “10 gigs of data”.

“Oh, hell, it was a bunch,” said Lancaster when asked how many records there were related to Hunter Biden’s finances. The documents were part of the case file for an Arkansas court child-support lawsuit that Roberts filed against Biden in 2019 in connection with their daughter.
“They’re all in electronic form,” Lancaster said. “I would estimate it was anywhere from 10 gigs of data.”
“I saw a lot of information” that is “problematic” for Biden, he said.

Finally, Lancaster told CNBC that his client hadn’t received immunity before testifying because she hadn’t committed any crimes. The NYT on Thursday reported that Roberts had been questioned about the provenance of the child support payments she had received from Biden. Prosecutors were apparently investigating whether the same corporate entity from which she received the payments was also used by Biden to receive payments from Burisma, the Ukrainian energy company from which he received a salary of $50K per month just for sitting on its board.

Given all the information on the investigation that’s just come to light, we wouldn’t be surprised if the grand jury hearing the evidence is soon asked to vote on whether federal charges should be brought against the younger Biden. His father, the president, has already recused himself from the case as his DoJ has continued with the investigation. If charges are brought and Hunter Biden is convicted (or pleads guilty), his father would then have the option of pardoning him. From this vantage point, it’s not too difficult to imagine a scenario where Biden pardons his son after deciding not to seek another term in office.

KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES

Bank of England raises rates to 0.75%, less sure about future moves https://t.co/RA2D1eRJhX
But policymakers on Thursday pushed back against investors’ bets that Bank Rate will rise sharply to around 2% by the end of this year, toning down its language on the need for more hikes.
“The Committee judged that some further modest tightening might be appropriate in the coming months, but there were risks on both sides of that judgement depending on how medium-term prospects evolved,” the BoE said. Last month the MPC said further modest tightening “is likely to be appropriate”.

Ukraine Update: Biden to Speak with China’s Xi About Russia
Joe Biden and China’s Xi Jinping will speak Friday about Russia. A Kremlin spokesman said a report of major progress in talks with Ukraine was “wrong” but that discussions will continue on Thursday…
Kremlin Denies Major Progress Made in Talks (11:00 a.m.)
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a Financial Times report of substantial progress in talks with Ukraine was “wrong”… He blamed Kyiv for dragging its feet on negotiations, saying Ukraine’s government was “in no rush.” Ukraine dismissed the Financial Times report on Wednesday, saying significant issues remained… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-zelenskiy-says-russia-creating-090341309.html

BBG’s @jeneps: “We believe China in particular has a responsibility to use its influence with Pres Putin and to defend the international rules and principles that it professes to support,” Blinken says, & US “concerned” China is “considering directly assisting Russia with military assistance.”

Stocks Decline as Kremlin Downplays Talk Progress
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-aided-upbeat-powell-bonds-220806400.html

Western officials warn that Moscow isn’t showing an honest approach toward peace talks https://t.co/AZ3AtClEqn

Russian Foreign Minister – Reversed halfway – Lavrov’s flight to China is puzzling
https://news.i-n24.com/news/105805.html

Putin Vows to Rid Russia of ‘Traitors’ While Waging Ukraine War

‘Self-cleansing’ of society will strengthen Russia, Putin said
Thousands fled Russia after president ordered war on Ukraine

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-16/in-a-chilling-threat-putin-vows-to-rid-russia-of-traitors

Russia warns United States: we have the might to put you in your place
Dmitry Medvedev, who served as president from 2008 to 2012 and is now deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council, said the United States had stoked “disgusting” Russophobia in an attempt to force Russia to its knees. “It will not work – Russia has the might to put all of our brash enemies in their place,” Medvedev said… http://reut.rs/3id8qm3

Kremlin: U.S. used nuclear weapons in Japan after World War II and has not right to preach to us.

GOP Sen. Ted Cruz: “We Haven’t Seen a nuclear weapons used since the end of WW II. The odds of it happening are increasing because presidential weakness from the White House invites this.”

Putin Is Likely to Make Nuclear Threats If War Drags, U.S. Says 16:28 ET
“Protracted occupation of parts of Ukrainian territory threatens to sap Russian military manpower and reduce their modernized weapons arsenal, while consequent economic sanctions will probably throw Russia into prolonged economic depression and diplomatic isolation,” Lt. General Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said in its new 67-page summary of worldwide threats…
    “As this war and its consequences slowly weaken Russian conventional strength, Russia likely will increasingly rely on its nuclear deterrent to signal the West and project strength to its internal and external audiences.”…  https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/putin-is-likely-to-make-nuclear-threats-if-war-drags-u-s-says

@TheInsiderPaper: Biden says Putin is “a murderous dictator, a pure thug who is waging an immoral war against the people of Ukraine”.  https://t.co/6uIQOYMPCX

Blinken said there are no signs that Putin has prepared to stop the war. The feckless US Secretary of State agreed with Biden in labeling ‘a war criminal’.

Someone is instructing The Big Guy to provoke Putin. They better have a great reason to do so. The alternative is Biden is running his big mouth, which he has historically done. And the media has never held him accountable. Can you imagine the outcry if DJT did this?  What if a peace deal is made? What does Team Biden then do re: Putin? Do they give him a Mulligan, say they were just joshin’?
Reuters: Switzerland’s secretive banks hold up to $213 billion of Russian wealth, the country’s financial industry association estimates, as sanctions on Russia give a rare glimpse inside Swiss vaults.

Russian Embassy, UK (@RussianEmbassy): President Putin: Illegitimate freezing of some of the currency reserves of the Bank of Russia marks the end of reliability of so-called first-class assets. US and EU have defaulted their obligations to Russia. Now everybody knows that financial reserves can simply be stolen. https://t.co/XJlUGj2YNs

Reuters: Some creditors have received payment, in dollars, of Russian bond coupons which fell due this week, two market sources said on Thursday, meaning that Russia may for now have averted what would have been its first sovereign bond default in a century.

How did Russia pay their debt obligations this week if their reserves were frozen?  Were allowances made so big US banks got their money? Inquiring minds want to know!

Philly Fed Expectations Plunge as Prices Paid Hit 43 Year High https://t.co/U4KBm4wdvh

Ukraine war to almost halve Germany’s 2022 growth to 2.1%: IfW economic institute https://t.co/DisID7dgtK

In yesterday’s missive we opined that ESMs and stocks would likely trade in a range after the wicked volatility on Wednesday. That’s largely what transpired on Thursday, until midday.

ESMs traded modestly higher in a 10-handle range during early Asian trading. They declined during the Nikkei’s 2^nd Session and traded in a slightly wider range than was transpired early. After a rally into the European open, ESMs tumbled 44 handles to a session low at 6:04 ET. After a rebound rally, ESMs sank until a vertical rally appeared after the NYSE open. ESMs soared 37 handles in 30 minutes.

Alas, ESMs and stocks then sank until the rally for the European close developed at 11:00 ET. At 11:30 ET, ESMs had traded in a 44-handle range, with most of the action occurring within a 26-handle range.

@bespokeinvest 11:27 ET: Quiet out there this morning. The S&P 500 has traded in a range of less than 1%, and the games haven’t even started yet.

When midday arrived ESMs and stocks commenced an expiry-related rally that endure into the close. This was the rally that usually occurs ahead of expiration day as traders get long for the expected institutional buying on the NYSE open to replace expiring futures (March) contracts.

@greg_price11: PELOSI: “I will be reading a poem written by Bono about Ukraine which you might find interesting.” (WTH is wrong with her/the Speak of the House!?!? No wonder Putin & Xi are…)
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1504479245615075336
    @SeanParnellUSA: These are tthe people who are making decisions about whether or not your son or daughter goes to war. Total cluster.

‘Is This a Prank?’: Nancy Pelosi Reads Poem by Bono to Comfort Afflicted Ukrainians, Leaving Everybody Bewildered http://dlvr.it/SLtvVp

The Workaday Life of the World’s Most Dangerous Ransomware Gang
A Ukrainian researcher leaked 60,000 messages from inside Conti. Here’s what they reveal.
But while many Conti members live in Russia, its scope is international…The main Conti team consisted of 62 people… https://www.wired.com/story/conti-leaks-ransomware-work-life/

Biden frustrates both parties by leading from behind during Russian invasion of Ukraine
Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton, a Marine veteran and member of the House Armed Services Committee, said the Biden administration is not moving fast enough to combat Russia. “You win wars by moving more quickly than your opponent,” he said. “We can’t be playing defense here. We can’t always be responding to what Putin does. We need to take the initiative.”…
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/pence-biden-admin-was-slow-draw-sanctions-against-russia

@jhaboush: CENTCOM chief Gen. Frank McKenzie says the delay in US weapons sales to allies in the Middle East is contributing to the perception of a wavering US commitment to the region and undermining the deterrence of Iran. https://t.co/CEQ2btEenf

“The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.” —Ben Bernanke, January 10, 2008

When has the Fed ever forecast a recession?

We have regularly commented that often after big Thursday afternoon rallies, the Fed reports and unexpectedly large increase in its balance sheet. For Powell’s BS, and with inflation at 40+year highs, the Fed’s balance sheet surged $43.558B higher (MBS+38.57B) for the week ended on Wednesday – the same day that Powell and Fed proffered hawkish rhetoric. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20220317/

@NorthmanTrader: Fed ends QE and promptly expands its balance sheet by $43B in one week to a new record high of $8.954 trillion. *But we’re really serious about fighting inflation.

Today is March option and futures expiration. The typical upward bias for option expiration is often mitigated when futures expire. Traders expect holders of expiring March futures to buy stocks on the NYSE open to maintain their equity exposure. If investors decide they want to naturally reduce their equity exposure, the traders that bought stuff on Thursday afternoon are chagrined.

Mother of Hunter Biden’s child testified in tax probe, lawyer handed over financial records
“I expect him to be indicted,” the lawyer said about Biden. “Just based on what I saw in his financial records, I would be surprised if he’s not indicted.”…
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/17/hunter-biden-criminal-investigation-gets-testimony-records.html

NYT: Hunter Biden Paid Tax Bill, but Broad Federal Investigation Continues
The Justice Department inquiry into the business dealings of the president’s son has remained active, with a grand jury seeking information about payments from around the world.
    People familiar with the investigation said prosecutors had examined emails between Mr. Biden, Mr. Archer and others about Burisma and other foreign business activity. Those emails were obtained by The New York Times from a cache of files that appears to have come from a laptop abandoned by Mr. Biden in a Delaware repair shop. The email and others in the cache were authenticated by people familiar with them and with the investigation… (previously dismissed by MSM/Dems as Russian disinformation)
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/16/us/politics/hunter-biden-tax-bill-investigation.html

The NY Times confirms that the ‘10% for The Big Guy’ emails on Hunter’s laptop are authentic!

The NYT Now Admits the Biden Laptop — Falsely Called “Russian Disinformation” — is Authentic
This disinformation campaign about the Biden emails was then used by Big Tech to justify brute censorship of any reporting on or discussion of this story: easily the most severe case of pre-election censorship in modern American political history. Twitter locked The New York Post’s Twitter account for close to two weeks… The social media site also blocked any and all references to the reporting by all users; Twitter users were barred even from linking to the story in private chats with one another. Facebook… announced that they would algorithmically suppress discussion of the reporting to ensure it did not spread, pending a “fact check[] by Facebook’s third-party fact checking partners” which, needless to say, never came — precisely because the archive was indisputably authentic…
    What this means is that, in the crucial days leading up to the 2020 presidential election, most of the corporate media spread an absolute lie about The New York Post’s reporting in order to mislead and manipulate the American electorate. It means that Big Tech monopolies, along with Twitter, censored this story based on a lie from “the intelligence community.” It means that Facebook’s promise from its DNC operative that it would suppress discussion of the reporting in order to conduct a “fact-check” of these documents was a fraud because, if one had been conducted, that no fact-check was even published because, if an honest one had been conducted, it would have proven that Facebook’s censorship decree was based on a lie. It means that millions of Americans were denied the ability to hear about reporting on the candidate leading all polls to become the next president, and instead were subjected to a barrage of lies about the provenance (Russia did it) and authenticity (disinformation!) of these documents..
https://greenwald.substack.com/p/the-nyt-now-admits-the-biden-laptop?s=w

@HansMahn>https://twitter.com/HansMahncke/status/1504463355725160452
     The NYT is backpedaling because the legal walls are closing in on the Biden family. Bill Barr says in his book that it was impossible to prove that Biden acted with corrupt intent because the fired prosecutor wasn’t investigating Burisma. That is incorrect. Maybe someone noticed.

@themarketswork: “More than 50 former senior intelligence officials” including @JohnBrennan publicly claimed that emails from Hunter were a “Russian information operation.” They lied [or they’re idiots].
They’re also part of the same group that’s directing and/or influencing our foreign policy.

Ex-DNI @RichardGrenell: A Republican Senate MUST hold hearings with all 50 of the people who signed that letter 3 weeks before the 2020 campaign. They all said Hunter Biden’s laptop was Russian disinformation. And they didn’t have a single piece of intel to suggest it.

Ex-CIA ops officer @BryanDeanWright: Hunter’s emails are real, and America has a corrupt man sitting in the White House. Joe Biden is a grave security risk to the United States of America.
(The only question is the magnitude and degree of kompromat.)

@PhilipWegmann: Biden said @NyPost story about Hunter Biden’s laptop was “a Russian plant.” Now that NYT has authenticated some of those emails, does Biden stand by that assessment? @PressSec
refers me to DOJ and “and also to Hunter Biden’s representatives–he doesn’t work in the government.”  When @robcrilly noted that she also had previously called it Russian disinformation, @PressSec again referred reporters to DOJ.

@JonathanTurley: Even with the belated recognition that the emails are authentic, the media still avoids such obvious questions and the need for a special counsel. Now that we agree these are Hunter’s email, we might want to discuss what they contain and who they implicate.

@jacobkschneider: Why did Hunter get $3.5 million from a Russian billionaire married to the fmr Moscow mayor? Why did Hunter have a joint account w/ a Chinese national that financed his shopping sprees? Why did he get $150K from a Kazakhstan businessman?

@JackPosobiec: They impeached Trump to cover up what Hunter was doing in Ukraine. They were all in on it. You’re being played.

@KyleMartinsen_: Seems like a good day to remind everyone that 16% of Biden voters would NOT have voted for Biden if they had been aware of the Hunter Biden laptop story https://t.co/tw1fVsucNP

@MonicaCrowley: The difference between a conspiracy theory and the truth is about 6 months. Or in the case of Hunter’s laptop/emails, about 17 months. And a presidential election.
    @julie_kelly2: Might be a little longer for January 6…

@julie_kelly2: Whitmer trial underway and WHOO BOY it’s already good. Defense and govt arguing before judge about allowable evidence related to FBI entrapment. Texts, photos in encrypted chats show FBI UCE (undercover) directing CHS to conduct various activities (not allowed per FBI)….
    Agent confirms that a “TEI,” terrorism enterprise investigation, must be approved by FBI HQ. This was pretext of Whitmer “kidnapping” probe. This is mind-blowing: CHS Steve, a convicted felon, operated out of numerous FBI offices including Norfolk, Mich, Milwaukee, Baltimore…
    Hey @JudiciaryGOP an FBI agent just confirmed that the Whitmer “kidnapping” investigation had to be approved by top officials at FBI HQ. You know, the caper to create bad headlines for Trump as Americans were already voting in October 2020? Maybe start asking questions?

@Peoples_Pundit: Bill Barr wants to sell books, so now his position isn’t that there isn’t fraud, there’s just no remedy in place once a party steals election… Yep, it’s exactly what Bill Barr told Buck Sexton.
   He said that he believes the peaceful transition of power was more important because 1) we’re divided and it is all that is holding us together, and 2) there is no remedy after a party steals an election.
   Of course, Bill Barr’s logic is flawed and his position fails under scrutiny for several reasons. Most importantly, the peaceful transition isn’t more important. It’s a worthless charade if there’s no integrity. That charade is far more dangerous than the “remedies” he ignored…
   I’ve read a number of emails. They weren’t concerned about a “peaceful transition”. Bill Barr’s DOJ was laughing at the Trump WH, and now he wants money from his voters. Secondly, Bill Barr didn’t investigate s@#$. @MattBraynard and I offered them research. They didn’t interview either one of us.

Lindsey Graham ‘called the White House on January 6 and said he would use the 25th Amendment to remove Trump and says Biden was the right person to win the election’
   Graham had given an impassioned speech on the floor when Congress resumed after the riot, telling his colleagues to ‘count me out’ of Trump world and sharply criticizing the ex-president for his role in the day’s events. Since then… he’s returned to praising Trump for what he did during his administration and has even been spotted golfing with the ex-president at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10619083/Graham-called-White-House-January-6-said-call-25th-Amendment-remove-Trump.html

In the realm of phonies, GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham is king.

Teachers union president misspells Ukraine on Twitter after posing with upside-down Ukrainian flag – Group posted upside-down Ukrainian flags earlier in the week
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/aft-president-misspells-ukraine-twitter-posing-upside-down-ukrainian-flag

“Control oil and you control nations. Control food and you control people.” – Henry Kissinger

END

Let us close with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter

https://usawatchdog.com/dollar-kill-shot-lethal-stupid-fed-cant-fight-inflation/

Dollar Kill Shot, Lethal Stupid, Fed Can’t Fight InflationBy Greg Hunter On March 18, 2022 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups9 CommentsBy Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 520 3/18/22)The US dollar is under serious threat to be steeply devalued. How is that going to happen? Looks like Saudi Arabia is considering accepting Chinese yuan for oil instead of only US dollars. Maybe this is a reaction to the US nuclear deal with Iran being pushed by the Biden/Obama Administration. Iran and Saudi Arabia are bitter enemies. If Saudi Arabia does accept yuan for its oil, there is nothing stopping other OPEC nations from doing that either. This has the very distinct possibility of crashing the value of the dollar and delivering a kill shot to its use, at least in a large part of the world. Inflation would skyrocket even more than already occurring now in the USA as unwanted dollars would return home.The Obama/Biden Administration is sending $13.6 billion to Ukraine. It is also sending an additional $800 billion in what is being called “lethal aid.” Lindsey Graham is still calling for the assassination of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, but other than that, there has not been a single plan or goal revealed by any one Republican or Democrat about how this massive spending is going to end the conflict in Ukraine. I ask what are the goals and plan for sending billions to Ukraine? There are zero answers coming from anyone in the Washington swamp. You might as well call this hairbrained move “Lethal Stupid.”The Fed is talking about raising interest rates in the face of 40-year high in inflation. It’s 7.8% officially, but people like economist John Williams of Shadowstats.com says it’s really 16%. Williams also says the economy is not spiking, it’s tanking. Williams says rate hikes will tank it even faster than it’s already going down. Brace for impact because inflation is here to stay, and it’s going to get much worse.Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 3.18.22.(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)After the Interview:World renowned lung doctor and Covid expert Dr. Pierre Kory will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post. The Vax and Covid problems are getting worse. Dr. Kory will arm you with knowledge on how to fight back.
https://usawatchdog.com/dollar-kill-shot-lethal-stupid-fed-cant-fight-inflation/

Well that is all for today. I will see you MONDAY night

3 comments

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.37 – Biz Patriot · March 19, 2022 - 6:03 am · Reply→

[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]

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WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.37 – altnews.org · March 19, 2022 - 6:05 am · Reply→

[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]

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Adam Ingwall · March 20, 2022 - 7:42 am · Reply→

Harvey did you see Michael Lynch (AKA Ditch the deep state) interview onm Palisades Gold on Youtube, he’s analyze of Comex trades I think would interest you, and peopel here on your blog

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douglas cundey	3:01 PM (0 minutes ago)
to Chris, William, Bill, rkirby, me

Robert Hryniak	7:25 PM (56 minutes ago)
to

Robert Hryniak	10:52 AM (1 minute ago)
to

Robert Hryniak	3:38 PM (4 minutes ago)
to

Kevin Wallien	11:56 AM (2 hours ago)
to me