MARCH 22/2022//OPTIONS EXPIRY BEGINS A LITTLE EARLY: GOLD DOWN $7.75 TO $1921.40//SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TO $24.82//COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH: A SMALL INCREASE OF 200 OZ//NEW STANDING 36.249 TONNES//SILVER OZ STAYS PAT AT 52.585 MILLION OZ//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE//DAVID STOCKMAN A MUST READ!!LARRY JOHNSON ALSO A MUST READ!!//EVERGRANDE SECURITY DEPOSITS CONFISCATED BY A BANK//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE MANDATE/VACCINE IMPACT//COVID CASES CLIMB AGAIN IN SHANGHAI//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

MARCH22

GOLD;  $1921.40 DOWN $7.75

SILVER: $24.82 DOWN $0.29

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1921.55

SILVER: $24.78

Bitcoin morning price:  $42930 UP 1889

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $42,598 UP 1557

Platinum price: closing DOWN $15.55 to $1026.45

Palladium price; closing DOWN $119.45  at $2447.55

END

end

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comex notices/

March: JPMorgan stopped/total issued 10/21

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 03/21/2022 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 03/21/2022
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:25:46
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,928.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/21/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 03/23/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 2
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 3
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 2
661 C JP MORGAN 19 10
709 C BARCLAYS 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 2
905 C ADM 2


TOTAL: 21 21
MONTH TO DATE: 11,510



NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  Mar. CONTRACT 21 NOTICE(S) FOR 2100 OZ  (0.0653  TONNES)

total notices so far:  11,510 contracts for 1,151,000 oz (35.800 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

5 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  25,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  10,468  :  for 52,340,000  oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1083.60 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS

AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE LV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 550.288 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED  630 CONTRACTS TO 157,972   AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE  GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR    $0.16 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.16) AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS  AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 1170 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A HUGE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 42.860 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF NIL OZ //NEW STANDING 52.585 MILLION OZ //         V)     STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : -115

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 16 days, total  contracts: :  29,945 contracts or 149.8 million oz  OR 9.36 MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1872 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 29,945 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 149.8 MILLION OZ

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 149.8 MILLION OZ//THIS IS GOING TO BE A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE MONTH AND MOST LIKELY WILL SET A RECORD FOR ANY MONTH

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD  SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 630 WITH OUR  $0.16 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 425 CONTRACTS( 425 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR. OF 42.860 MILLION OZ  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S NIL OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 52.585 MILLION OZ//  ///  .. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1055 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 5.275 MILLION OZ WITH THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE. 

 WE HAD 5 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 25,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 788 CONTRACTS  TO 610,889 AND FURTHER CLOSER TO NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: +871  CONTRACTS. 

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

.

THE SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.25//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY/.AS IN SILVER WE MUST  HAD  HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR HUMONGOUS SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION   

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MARCH AT 14.818 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP  OF 200 OZ//NEW STANDING 36.249 TONNES 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF   $0.25 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD AN FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 3638  OI CONTRACTS (11.315 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED  2850 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 610,018.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2767, WITH 83 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2850 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2767 CONTRACTS OR 8.606 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2850) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (788,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 3638 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MARCH. AT 14.818 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  QUEUE JUMP  OF 200 OZ//NEW STANDING 36.249 TONNES ///  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ///. ,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

MARCH

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :

100,771 CONTRACTS OR 10,077,100 OR 313.44  TONNES 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 6298 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 313.44TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  313.44/3550 x 100% TONNES  8.82% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  313.44 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE MONTH. 

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL, FOR GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 630 CONTRACTS TO 157,972  AND FURTHER FROM  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  4 1/2 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 425 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAR 425  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 425 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 680 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 425 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 1055 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.275 MILLION  OZ, 

OCCURRED WITH OUR SMALLISH   $0.16 GAIN IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.18 PTS OR 0.19%       //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 667.94 PTS OR 3.15 %  /The Nikkei closed UP 396.88 PTS OR 1.48%        //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.82%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.3643    /Oil UP TO 111.61 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 116.06 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN        //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3643. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3660: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 788 CONTRACTS TO 610,889  AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS  COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY GAIN OF $0.25 IN GOLD PRICING MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A  SMALL SIZED EFP (1364 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. 

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE   NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2850 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,   & FEB. 0 APRIL:2850 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2850 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED  TOTAL OF 3638- CONTRACTS IN THAT 2850 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 788  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS SMALL GAIN OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.25. 

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR   (36.249),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.249 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $0.25) AND  THEY WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR SIZED GAIN  OF 8.606 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR (36.249 TONNES)…

WE HAD  +788 CONTRACTS ADDED TO COMEX TRADES???. THESE WERE ADDED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3658 CONTRACTS OR 365800 OZ OR 11.315 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 188,815 ///poor

Confirmed volume yesterday: 203,295 contracts  poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR MAR ’22 COMEX GOLD //

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz8,102.05 oz
Int Delaware
250 kilobars
&
Brinks:  2 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil
OZ 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz64,302.000 oz
JPMORGAN
2,000 kilobars
No of oz served (contracts) today21 notice(s)
2100 OZ
0.0155 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)144 contracts 14,400 oz
0.4479 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month11,510 notices
1151,000 OZ
35.800 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

For today:

dealer deposits  0

total dealer deposit nil oz

No dealer withdrawal 0

2 customer deposits

i) Into JPMORGAN:  64,302.000 oz  (2000 kilobars

total customer deposit: 64,302.000   oz 

total gold deposits in tonnage: 2.0090 tonnes

2 customer withdrawal

i) Out of Brinks 64.30 oz (2 kilobars)

ii) out of Int. Delaware  8037.75 oz (250 kilobars)

total withdrawals: 32.151     oz  

ADJUSTMENTS:  1

manfra..// customer to dealer//1,832.607 oz (57 kilobars)

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MARCH.

For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 165 contracts having LOST  3

We had 5 notices filed yesterday so we finally gained 2 contracts or 200 oz  will stand at the comex as these guys refused to be  EFP’d over to London.

Our banker friends have run out of gold metal everywhere.

April saw a loss of 27,441 contracts down to 198,628.

May saw a GAIN of26 contracts to stand at 4349

June saw a GAIN of 27,694 contracts up to 337,297 contracts

We had 5 notice(s) filed today for 500  oz FOR THE MAR 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 19 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 21 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 10 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0  notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11,510) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (MAR: 165 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  21 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,165,400 OZ  OR 36.249 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of mar. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:

No of notices filed so far (11,510) x 100 oz+   (165)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (21} x 100 oz} which equals 1,165,400 oz standing OR 36.249 TONNES in this  NON active delivery month of MAR.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  36.249 TONNES  (A WHOPPER FOR A MAR (NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

191,133,764.7, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

99,258.893 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

243,923.704, oz  JPM No 2  7.58 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged  Brinks/27,96 TONNES

12,249,333 oz International Delaware:  0..3810 tonnes

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold:  1,506,092.234 oz                                     46.84 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIG GOLD AT THE COMEX: 34,491,736.522  OZ (1072.83TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 16,798,210.136 OZ (522.49 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,693,526.386 OZ  (550.34 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 16,187,434.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  503.49 tonnes

END

MAR 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//MARCH 22

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,333,773.399  oz
Malca
CNT
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil
OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventorynil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)5CONTRACT(S)25,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)49 contracts (245,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)10,468 contracts 52,340,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits:  nil       oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 0 deposits into the customer account

total deposit:  nil oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 180.228 million oz/341.425 million =52.78% of comex 

ii) Comex withdrawals: 2

A) Out of CNT:  1,248,359.339 oz

ii) Out of Malca:  85,414,060 oz

total withdrawal 1,333,773.399   oz

one adjustment:

JPMorgan/dealer to customer 600,079.100 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 92.449 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 341,424 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MARCH

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF MARCH OI:  54, HAVING LOST 0 CONTRACTS FROM MONDAY.

WE HAD 0 NOTICES SERVED UPON YESTERDAY, SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL  STAND

 FOR DELIVERY OVER HERE AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO BE EFP’D TO LONDON. 

APRIL HAD A 1 CONTRACT GAIN// CONTRACTS REMAINS AT 611

MAY HAD A GAIN OF 64 CONTRACTS UP TO 119,008 contracts

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 5 for 25,000 oz

Comex volumes: 45,093// est. volume today//poor/

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 36,869 contracts ( extremely poor )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  10,468 x 5,000 oz = 52,340,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR (54) and the number of notices served upon today 5 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the MAR./2021 contract month: 10,468 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR (x54)  – number of notices served upon today (5) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month equates 52,585,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSITED INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1083.60 TONES

MARCH 21//WITH GOLD UP $.25 : A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.00 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.44 TONES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.55 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.44 TONES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $33.50: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.61 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.44 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.50//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.83 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.16 TONNES


MARCH 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $22.75, HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//STRANGE: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.16 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.54 TONNES

MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.55: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.06 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.28 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.85//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.64 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.34 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $46.10: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 8.42 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.70 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.28 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.22 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.95: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.84 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.22 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80//A MONSTER CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.38 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $42.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD UP $17.35//A HUGE  CHANGE AT THE GLD: 5.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD// IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $6.20: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

FEB 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD UP $29.50: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP 414.60 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.70 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $27.20 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.50 A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD IVNETORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.48 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1019.44 TONES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1083.44 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 21/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.217 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/ WITH SILVER UP 72 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.049 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLVV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 548.071 MILLION OZ

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 56 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 462,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.560 MLLION O

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.022 MILLION OZ

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY; STRANGE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.125 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.022 MILLIONOZ

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.174 MILLION OZ OF FAKE SILVER.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 88 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.217 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS A 548.071 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.32 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 198,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP $1.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.052 MILLION OZ//

FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 546.052 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.510 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.052 MILLION OZ/

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ

FEB 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 350,000 OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

FEB 18/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.017 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.227 MILLION OZ

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.402 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.210 MILLION OZ/

FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLIONOZ

FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ//

FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.235 MILLION OZ INTO THES LV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.808 MILLION OZ

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.573 MILLION OZ///

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 550.288 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Schiff: The Fed Will Raise Rates… Until It Can’t

TUESDAY, MAR 22, 2022 – 08:16 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

After going from not even thinking about thinking about raising interest rates, to thinking about it, to talking about it, the Fed finally got around to raising rates last week. Peter Schiff called it the most anticipated and probably the least significant rate hike ever. So, what’s next? In his podcast, Peter said the Fed will keep raising rates … until it can’t.

In the past, Peter has said this could be it for hikes. The Fed could be one and done. But the central bank has indicated that it will raise rates six more times this year. In his podcast last week, Peter said there are likely more hikes coming down the pike and the markets haven’t come to terms with how high rates might rise.

So, which is it?

Peter said it will be one-and-done if this first hike causes enough damage to the markets and the economy.

I believe that Powell is very worried about the impact rate hikes might have on the economy and the markets. He may not be forthright about admitting that. But if you read between the lines – and he doesn’t make it that difficult when he talks about raising rates with care and being data-dependent and it’s not on autopilot – if we get a significant reaction between the first rate hike and the second rate hike, there may not be a second rate hike.”

So far, the reaction has been positive. The markets rallied after the hike announcement. If this continues and there is no major economic hiccup, the Fed will almost certainly raise rates again.

The Fed is going to raise rates as many times as it can without hurting the economy, without crashing the markets.”

So, we could have a number of hikes, given that the plan is to only notch interest rates up 25 basis points at a time. But we will eventually get a crash.

At some point, the rate hikes are too many. You get that straw that breaks the camel’s back.”

The Fed is between a rock and a hard place. The central bankers know they need to fight inflation. But they also know that the entire economy is built on accommodative monetary policy. They’re in a corner. They can’t win the inflation fight. And there is no way any of these rate hikes will dent inflation.

So, inflation is going to be here for a long time. And it’s going to keep getting worse. That means the Fed is going to be in a position where it’s forced to continue to raise interest rates until something breaks in the markets and the economy. So, either way, you’re going to lose in the stock market because if it doesn’t crash now, it’s going to crash later.

The crash is the only thing that will stop rate hikes. Until then, the Fed will keep nudging up rates.

When it happens, the Fed is going to stop hiking. But inflation is not going to go away. Inflation is going to keep getting worse. And then when it stops hiking, it could go from getting worse to getting much worse. We could kick in a whole new gear when it comes to more inflation. Because once we start to really see the negative consequences in the economy and in the markets, I expect not only that Fed will stop hiking rates, but it will start reducing rates.”

Interestingly, while the Fed cut rates, during the week of March 16, it expanded its balance sheet by another $43.6 billion. That pushed the balance sheet up to a new record high of $8.954 trillion.

The Fed hiked rates on Wednesday. But during the week that ended on that same Wednesday, the Fed printed another $43.6 billion and bought more US Treasuries. So in other words, the Fed is supposedly committed to fighting inflation and its hiking rates by 25 basis points in its efforts to fight inflation. Yet during the same week it’s hiking rates, it’s creating more inflation. It’s printing more money. It’s monetizing more government debt. Did it really have to do another 43.6 billion in QE on the very week that it’s hiking rates?”

The fact is the US economy is addicted to low interest rates. Even if interest rates remain relatively low through the hiking process, they won’t be low enough to satisfy that addiction.

The economy is going to start to go into withdrawal. We’re going to start to see the impact of rising interest rates on the economy, of rising bond yields on the economy, on the stock market. And as consumers are struggling with rising prices, now they’re going to be struggling with rising interest rates.”

When you have an economy built on consumers borrowing and spending money, raising borrowing costs takes the juice out of that economy. It will crash. And that’s when the real problems start for the Fed.

In this podcast, Peter also talks about the market reaction to the first hike and comments he made about Ukraine President Zelensky.

END

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James  RICKARDS/

-END-

-END-

LAWRIE WILLIAMS

3.  Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Not so sure about this!

(Bloomberg/GATA)

Usurping dollar’s dominance is nearly impossible, analysts say

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-03-21 10:38Section: Daily Dispatches

Ruth Carson, Libby Cherry, and Tania Chen
Bloomberg News
via Yahoo Finance, Sunnyvale, California
Monday, March 21, 2022

Dethroning the dollar is easier said than done.

That’s the conclusion of investors after Washington’s freeze of Russia’s dollar holdings created fresh impetus among central bankers to rethink the security of access to foreign-exchange reserves. The move fueled speculation that countries such as China could redouble efforts to unshackle itself from greenback-denominated financial systems and look for alternatives.

While Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG have flagged threats to the dollar’s supremacy, finding a valid replacement is going to be extremely challenging, according to funds from Brandywine Global Investment Management to JPMorgan Asset Management. 

The size and strength of the world’s largest economy are unparalleled, Treasuries are still one of the safest ways to store money, and the dollar remains a pre-eminent beneficiary of haven flows.

There are simply “no other options at this stage in the game” for currency alternatives to the greenback, said Mark Mobius, a four-decade markets veteran and founder of Mobius Capital Partners. “The dollar is still strong and will probably get stronger if tensions continue to escalate.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/usurping-dollar-dominance-impossible-task-215507488.html

end

Here is a case where a farmer could not sell any of his wheat crop on the futures market.   Reuters explains what is going on

(zerohedge)

Spike in futures prices crushes buying in grains as markets panic

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-03-21 10:55Section: Daily Dispatches

Wheat Prices Soar on Ukraine Fears but U.S. Growers Can’t Cash In

By Julie Ingwersen and P.j. Huffstutter
Reuters
Monday, March 21, 2022

CHICAGO — After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent global wheat futures soaring, U.S. farmer Vance Ehmke was eager to sell his grain.

Local prices shot up roughly 30% to nearly $12 a bushel, about the highest Ehmke could recall in 45 years of farming near the western Kansas town of Healy.

Instead of reaping a windfall, Ehmke found a commodities market turned upside down.

He and his wife, Louise, told Reuters they couldn’t sell a nickel of their upcoming summer wheat harvest for future delivery. 

Futures prices for corn and wheat had rocketed so abruptly that many along the complex chain of grain handling — local farm cooperatives, grain elevators, flour millers, and exporters — stopped buying for fear they couldn’t resell at a profit.

Others couldn’t afford an industry-wide risk-management strategy known as hedging that keeps global commodities markets moving. Missiles falling in Ukraine had rocked that system, sending middlemen scrambling to shore up positions in the futures market that were costing them millions of dollars per day.

“The market is just in a panic,” Andrew Jackson, a Kentucky grain merchandiser, told Reuters. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wheat-prices-soar-ukraine-fears-us-growers-cant-cash-2022-03-21/

END

For your interest….

UK’s Royal Mint to recover gold from circuit boards, mobile phones

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-03-21 21:30Section: Daily Dispatches

From the Daily Mail, London
Monday, March 21, 1011

The Royal Mint is building the world’s first recycling factory to turn old laptops and mobile phones into gold.

The state-of-the-art plant will be the first of its kind to recover gold from discarded circuit boards.

High-quality gold taken from the items will then be used by the Royal Mint at its site in Llantrisant, South Wales

Technology created in Canada will recover 99% of precious metals from electronic waste destined for the scrap heap.

Bosses expect to process up to 90 tonnes of British circuit boards every week — making hundreds of kilograms of gold per year. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10636669/Royal-Mint-extract-gold-old-laptops-mobile-phones.html

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES/EGGS

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING TODAY

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.3643

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3760

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 667.94 PTS OR 3.15%

2. Nikkei closed UP 396.88 PTS OR 1.48% 

3. Europe stocks  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX  UP TO  98.67/Euro FALLS TO 1.1007

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.219/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 120.76/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET//

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 111.61 and Brent: 116.06

3f Gold  DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -SHORE CLOSED DOWN//  OFF- SHORE  DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.0.506%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 2.04% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 1.43%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.534: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 2.73

3k Gold at $1925.35 silver at: 24.96   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 2.60/100 in roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 104.08

3m oil into the 111 dollar handle for WTI and 116 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 120.76 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9334– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0272 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.343 UP 5 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.559 UP 4 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.82

Futures Rise As Torrid Oil Rally Pauses

TUESDAY, MAR 22, 2022 – 08:03 AM

US equity futures reversed earlier losses and European stock markets rose as a sharp rally in crude oil stalled, even as a selloff in bonds deepened Tuesday after Fed Chair Powell signaled a stronger commitment to clamp down on inflation.

Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 flipped to gains from losses, the former trading 0.3% higher or 14 points to 4,466 while the latter was 0.25% in the green. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index marched 0.4% higher, led by banks and cyclical stocks like automakers, while the Hang Seng led gains in Asia, closing up 3.15% after Ali Baba raised its stock buyback by $10 billion. Treasury yields continued their ascent after short-dated rates posted one of the biggest daily climbs of the past decade on Monday.

In a mostly quiet session oil was the outlier, and after climbing 18% in three days, Brent futures initially rose as high as $119 before sliding sharply to $113 a barrel around the time Europe opened with WTI mirroring the move. Bloomberg reported that Germany and Hungary are putting the brakes on a potential embargo by the European Union on Russian oil, deepening differences in the bloc over how to further punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.

“We have quite an unpleasant situation for markets currently in the sense that normally a Fed tightening cycle is at the early stages quite risk-on, and later on you worry about the financial conditions tightening driving a growth slowdown,” Christian Mueller-Glissmann, managing director of portfolio strategy and asset allocation at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “You now have this incredible urgency to tighten, you have a very steep hiking cycle and that puts the problem much earlier into investors’ minds that you might be facing a growth slowdown.”

In premarket trading, Nike rose more than 7% after reporting quarterly results that beat analysts’ expectations as the world’s largest athletic-wear retailer overcame struggles with its supply chain and the China market.  Cryptocurrency-linked stocks gained in premarket trading as digital tokens from Bitcoin to Ether rise: Bitcoin climbs 3.3% to exceed $42,400 while Ether rises 3.2% to more than $3,000. Names benefiting from the move include Bit Digital +5.6%; Ebang +5.4%; Marathon Digital +5%; Riot Blockchain +4.5%; Coinbase +2.4%. Here are the other notable premarket movers:

  • Alibaba (BABA US) shares jump 8.8% in U.S. premarket trading after the e-commerce giant announced an increase in its share buyback program to $25 billion from $15 billion. The move will enhance shareholder value and could be a signal that regulatory scrutiny by authorities is letting up, analysts say.
  • Shares in Chinese stocks rally in U.S. premarket trading, boosted after e- commerce giant Alibaba upsized its share buyback to $25b, while tech stocks post broad gains. Baidu (BIDU US) +4.8%, JD.com (JD US) +5.5%.
  • Tencent Music’s (TME US) shares rise as much as 6.7% in U.S. premarket trading following results. While the Chinese online music company reported a decline in year-over-year revenue, the figure met the average analyst estimate. The company also announced a plan to pursue a secondary listing in Hong Kong.
  • Stocks related to cryptocurrencies gain in premarket trading as digital tokens from Bitcoin to Ether rise. Bit Digital (BTBT US) +5.6%; Ebang (EBON US) +5.4%.
  • Okta (OKTA US) shares drop 8.5% in U.S. premarket trading, amid worries over a potential data breach after hacking group Lapsus$ claims it has gained internal access to the tech firm’s system privileges.
  • HireRight Holdings Corp. (HRT US) jumped 11% postmarket after the employment background screening company provided a 2022 forecast that beat estimates. 4Q revenue increased 32% from a year ago.
  • Dave Inc. (DAVE US) advanced in after-hours trading as the company announced a partnership with West Realm Shires Services and reported fourth-quarter results.

Commodity-market disruptions stemming from the Ukraine war have increased pressure on the Fed and some other key central banks to tighten monetary policy. Powell said the Fed is prepared to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at the next policy meeting if needed. His comments led to a deepening selloff in bond markets. Many investors welcomed the Fed’s strong will to combat inflation, said AcivTrad’s Pierre Veyret. However, “flattening yield curves suggesting rising concerns of an economic slowdown to come in the longer run, associated with the lack of any clear breakthrough in Ukraine-Russia diplomatic talks in the short-term, could be seen as a sign market volatility and large swings in prices may not be over yet,” he said.

The Fed hiked by a quarter-point last week and signaled six more such moves this year. Derivative traders Monday priced in about 7.5 quarter-point rate hikes at the remaining six Fed meetings this year, effectively making provision for more than one half-point rise. Overnight, Goldman Sachs economists said they now expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at both its May and June policy meetings. Economists led by Jan Hatzius said the Fed will likely raise by 25 basis points in the four remaining meetings in the second half of the year, with three quarterly hikes in the first nine months of 2023.

“Our best guess is that the shift in wording from ‘steadily’ in January to ‘expeditiously’ today is a signal that a 50 basis points rate hike is coming,” they wrote adding that “the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the possibility that financial conditions could tighten more aggressively in response to a faster pace of Fed tightening both present downside risks to our new forecast.”

European equities trade well, led by banks, insurance and auto names. Euro Stoxx 50 rises as much as 1% before stalling. FTSE MIB outperforms. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Nemetschek shares gain as much as 13%, the most since October 2020, after the firm delivered 2022 guidance ahead of estimates which should trigger up to high single-digit upgrades to consensus Ebitda numbers, Baader Helvea (add) writes in note.
  • Softcat shares rally as much as 12%, the most in a year, after saying full year results will be ahead of expectations. Jefferies boosts its price target, saying first-half results are “strong” and the IT reseller is managing supply chain constraints in a “healthy way.”
  • Dermapharm shares rise as much as 7.2%, the most since Feb. 9, with Berenberg (buy) saying the pharmaceutical manufacturer’s margins topped estimates.
  • Casino shares rise as much as 3.6% on renewed takeover speculation after a BFM Business report saying CEO Jean-Charles Naouri wants to play a role in French grocer consolidation.
  • Trustpilot shares fall as much as 24%, the biggest intraday decline on record, after full-year results that Morgan Stanley says highlights the consumer-review platform’s intention to accelerate investments. Broker estimates the company is guiding to an Ebitda loss of $15m-$20m in 2022.
  • Shares in equipment-parts supplier Diploma drop as much as 5.5% after JPMorgan analyst Oscar Val Mas cut the stock to underweight from neutral, citing “unfavourable” risk-reward at current levels.
  • CRH share fall as much as 2.1% in Dublin. Valuation looks “undemanding but uncompelling” as higher costs and weaker growth in Europe look set to dent recent margin gains, Redburn analyst Will Jones writes in a note, downgrading the construction materials supplier to neutral from buy. CRH .

Earlier in the session, stocks also rose in the Asia-Pacific region, helped by Alibaba’s increased buyback program and a lift for Japanese exporters from a weaker yen. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped as much as 1%, with Alibaba the biggest contributor to gains in the regional benchmark as well as the Hang Seng Index after the e-commerce giant expanded its share-repurchase program to $25 billion from $15 billion. The Topix advanced for a sixth straight day as the Japanese market reopened after a holiday. The gains came even amid weakness in U.S. equities after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he is prepared to raise interest rates by a half percentage-point at the next meeting if needed to fight inflation. Asian financial stocks climbed as bond yields surged on Powell’s comments. Shares in India and South Korea also gained as the rally in oil prices paused. Still, inflation concerns, the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s growth slowdown remain a weight on regional stocks, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down more than 7% year-to-date. “Given the sell off we have seen thus far, it is only natural that investors try to identify if the market is at an inflection point,” said Justin Tang, the head of Asian research at United First Partners

A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of China property shares rose as much 3.2% as market watchers say more cities have rolled out easing policies, such as lowering mortgage rates. Property stocks lead gains on the Shanghai Composite Index; Shanghai Stock Exchange Property Index rises as much as 3.8%. China Fortune Land jumps by the 10% daily limit; Seazen Group rises as much as 9.3%, Country Garden Holdings +7.6%, Greenland Holdings +6.6%, Yuzhou +6.1%. Mortgage rates in major cities have dropped more than 10 basis points in March compared to the previous month, says Geng Xinxin, an analyst at ZhiXin Investing Research Institute.

Japanese equities rose for a sixth-straight day, with electronics and auto makers among the drivers as the yen continued to weaken. The Topix gained 1.3%, with financials and energy-related stocks also gaining. Tokyo Electron and KDDI were the biggest contributors to a 1.5% rise in the Nikkei 225. The yen slid 0.8% against the dollar, pushing its loss to 4.9% since March 4. Yields jumped as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell caused a slide in Treasuries. Oil surged on signs the European Union may be edging closer to a ban on Russian crude imports. “With the dollar-yen pair approaching the key 120 mark, it’s going to be a tailwind for export-related stocks,” said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. “As crude oil future prices rise, trading companies and other resource-related stocks could be bought.”

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.9% to 7,341.10, closing at the highest level since Jan. 20. The materials and energy sectors rose the most.  Mineral exploration company AVZ Minerals Limited advanced for a fourth day to end at a record high.  Mobile payment solution company Block fell, snapping four days of gains. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.2% to 12,204.69

In Rates, treasuries added to Monday’s steep declines during Asia session and European morning, sending yields across the curve to new YTD highs, with the 10Y TSY briefly rising above 2.30%. Benchmark Treasury yields added four basis points to Monday’s 14-basis point jump after Powell said the central bank is prepared to raise interest rates by a half percentage-point at its next meeting, if needed. Yields remain cheaper by 3bp-5bp, with most curve spreads slightly flatter on the day. 2-year TSY yields top at 2.195%, highest since May 2019, and remain cheaper by ~6bp on the day; 10-year higher by ~5bp at ~2.34%, cheapening by ~1.5bp vs comparable bunds and gilts. Fed-dated OIS price around 43bp of rate hikes — or 72% of a 50bp move — into the May meeting. In Europe, fixed income trades heavy with bund and gilt curves all bear flatter on the session. Peripheral spreads only marginally tighter to core. Focal points for U.S. session include potential for another busy corporate issuance slate; Monday’s caused choppy price action in swap spreads; also, three Fed speakers are scheduled, following hawkish comments from Chair Powell Monday.

In FX, the dollar initially climbed against all its G-10 peers as hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell propelled U.S. yields higher, however it then dipped in early London trade . The yen slid to a six-year low: a surge in dollar demand into the Tokyo fix pushed USD/JPY above 120 for the first time since February 2016, traders said. The greenback’s haven appeal got a boost after U.S. President Joe Biden said Russia had deployed a hypersonic missile against Ukraine and warned about new indications of possible cyberattacks. “The dollar looks to be finding the support from a hawkish Fed outlook that it really should have seen after the FOMC meeting last week,” said Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. “It seems markets needed to be told twice by Powell what he planned to do on rates and where the risks lie to the baseline view”

In commodities, Crude futures decline. May WTI futures decline as much as 2.5%, back near $108. Base metals are mixed; LME nickel trades down over 9%, but remains within exchange limit. Spot gold falls roughly $11 to trade near $1,925/oz.

Bitcoin is bid, but off highs, having surpassed last week’s peak of USD 42,392 in a short-lived foray above the USD 43k mark.

Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index from the US for March, as well as UK public sector net borrowing for February. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos and the ECB’s Villeroy, Panetta and Lane, along with the Fed’s Williams, Daly and Mester, and BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,467.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 456.81
  • MXAP up 1.0% to 179.08
  • MXAPJ up 1.2% to 585.14
  • Nikkei up 1.5% to 27,224.11
  • Topix up 1.3% to 1,933.74
  • Hang Seng Index up 3.1% to 21,889.28
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,259.86
  • Sensex up 1.2% to 57,953.59
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 7,341.10
  • Kospi up 0.9% to 2,710.00
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.49%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.0998
  • Brent Futures down 0.6% to $114.96/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,927.22
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.19% to 98.68

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is prepared to raise interest rates by a half percentage-point at its next meeting if needed, deploying a more aggressive tone toward curbing inflation than he used just a few days earlier.
  • The yen fell to a six-year low against the dollar, reflecting expectations of a growing divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and Japan.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday weighed in on a major topic of debate in the bond market: where to look to determine the chances for a U.S. recession.

A more detailed breakdown of global markets from Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were mostly positive with the region shrugging off the higher yields and oil advances. ASX 200 was led higher by strength in the commodity-related sectors including energy after further gains in oil. Nikkei 225 gained as exporters benefitted from a weaker currency and amid stimulus speculation. Hang Seng and traded higher with outperformance among the blue-chip tech stocks including Shanghai Comp. Alibaba after it boosted its share buyback to USD 25bln from USD 15bln and with oil majors underpinned. China is to hold a press conference on Tuesday night regarding the latest updates of the crashed China Eastern Jet, according to State Media.

Top Asian News

  • Evergrande Unit Starts Probe as $2.1 Billion of Cash Seized
  • Kishida Likely to Respond Before BOJ as Yen Breaches 120
  • Tycoon-Led Group Said to Win Approval to Buy Singapore Press
  • Japan Rushes to Avoid Tokyo Blackout as Snowfall Hits City

European bourses have been erring higher after a contained open, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, with upside occurring as crude and bonds slipped further. US futures are in-fitting directionally but magnitudes more contained, ES +0.2%, with a slew of Central Bank speakers ahead. Sectors features defensive names as the current underperformers while Consumer Products is bolstered post-Nike earnings. EU leaders could endorse taxing windfall profits of energy firms, according to a draft summit statement

Top European News

  • Fortum Exits Oslo Heating Company Valued at $2.3 Billion
  • Sunak Given Budget Boost as Borrowing $34 Billion Below Forecast
  • U.K. Government Prepares to Take Over Gazprom Retail Arm
  • EToro Clients’ Missing Russia Stock Shows Risk in Market Tumult

In FX, the dollar extends gains as Fed chair Powell delivers hawkish speech at NABE, underlining 50bps hikes at one or more meetings, a potentially higher terminal rate and QT kicking off in May perhaps/ DXY gets to within a whisker of 99.000 before waning. Yen extends slump as BoJ Governor Kuroda says any exit from ultra accommodation would be premature, USD /JPY now testing 121.00 after breaching a key Fib just over 119.50 and 120.00 with little resistance. Kiwi and Aussie bounce as risk appetite picks up, former back above 0.6900 and latter on the 0.7400 handle again. Loonie lags as oil prices retreat, USD/CAD over 1.2600. Pound and Euro derive some traction from corrective gains in Gilt and EGB yields; Cable close to 1.3200 and EUR/USD tests 1.1000 where 1.35bln option expiries start and end at 1.1010.

In commodities, WTI and Brent are pressured, but off lows, as the benchmarks are hit amid China’s COVID updates and reports of further support in the EU for an energy price cap. WTI and Brent May contracts have slipped from intraday highs of USD 113.30/bbl and USD 119.48/bbl to current lows of USD 107.10/bbl and USD 112.64/bbl, respectively. France and “several eastern EU countries” reportedly back the idea of energy price caps with Germany and the Netherlands left to be convinced, according to Journalist Keating; Germany/Netherlands argue that refusing to pay market price could mean suppliers go elsewhere. Subsequently, a Senior German official says that Berlin’s opposition to energy sanctions is “unlikely to unless Russia uses “chemical or nuclear weapons”, according to Eurasia Group’s Rahman. Adds, “One change” idea would see a “coalition of the willing” – member states with less Russian energy dependency, move first” – Note, it is unclear if this is the journalists’ view or an official. Japanese government says power supply is tightening in the Tohoku region amid low temperatures. Spot / are pressured, though off lows, amid what appears to be a outflow from “havens” with core-debt gold silver and JPY pressured. LME CEO says price limits should prevent a repeat of the squeeze seen in Nickel, via Bloomberg. At the open, LME Nickel -12%, at USD 27,600/T.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: March Richmond Fed Index, est. 2, prior 1

Central Bank Speakers

  • 9:10am: New York Fed’s Wuerffel Discusses a Post-Libor World
  • 10:35am: Fed’s Williams Takes Part in BIS Panel Discussion
  • 2pm: Fed’s Daly Speaks at Brookings Institution Event
  • 5pm: Fed’s Mester Discusses Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Whilst Ukraine undoubtedly remains the most important news story right now, central bank comments dominated the market agenda once again yesterday, with a fresh aggressive bond sell-off occurring before and after Fed Chair Powell signalled that the Fed wouldn’t shy away from tightening policy in order to curb inflation. It was especially telling that the Chair indicated nothing would stop the Fed from hiking in 50bp increments if they needed to. Surely they would have gone 50bp last week but for the uncertainty of events in Ukraine. Indeed, it’s increasingly dawning on investors that this is going to be a very different hiking cycle from its predecessor back in 2015, and yesterday Fed Funds futures moved to price in more than 200bps worth of hikes for 2022 for the first time (including the 25bps we saw last week). In turn, that served to turbocharge the losses among sovereign bonds and led the S&P 500 to turn from positive territory before he spoke to close ever so slightly lower (-0.04%) and end a run of 4 consecutive gains. Yields exploded up too with the 10yr yield up +14.0bps to its highest level since 2019, at 2.29%. Around a half of the gains post Powell showing that momentum was moving in that direction anyway. We’ve moved another +4bps this morning in Asia.

Significantly as well, there was a noticeable flattening in the yield curve, with the 2s10s curve closing beneath 20bps (17.0bps) for the first time this cycle after the 2yr yield (+17.9bps) flew past 2% for the first time since 2019 as well, closing the day at 2.12% but now 2.175% in Asia with the curve now at c.15bps as I type.

As mentioned at the top, the speech also triggered a reappraisal in the future path of monetary policy, with Fed funds futures pricing an additional 186bps of hikes this year (on top of the 25bps we saw last week), which would take the total tightening this year beyond 200bps if realised, and implies a +50bp hike at some point this year. Even in Asia trading this morning we’ve seen an additional quarter of a hike added which is a pretty big move for an overnight session. Bear in mind that the last time we saw more than 200bps of hikes in a calendar year was all the way back in 1994 (when rates rose +250bps), so again a pace of tightening that’s potentially faster than anything else in the last 3 decades. Rate hikes were added into money markets beyond this year, which had 5yr Treasuries (+17.8bps) moving in lockstep with the 2yr tenor, inverting the 5s10s yield curve (-3.3bps).

In terms of the headlines, there were a number of hawkish comments made by Powell in his speech, including that “the labor market is extremely tight, significantly tighter than the very strong job market just before the pandemic”, whilst he also acknowledged that “forecasters widely underestimated the severity and persistence of supply-side frictions”. Furthermore, he said that the Fed would “take the necessary steps to ensure a return to price stability”, and that they would be willing to move by more than 25bps per meeting and also shift policy into restrictive territory if necessary. That said, he (unsurprisingly) struck an optimistic tone on the odds of lowering inflation via a soft landing, noting that in 1965, 1984 and 1994 the Fed was able to raise rates without triggering a recession, and pointed out that others (such as the pandemic recession in 2020) were not induced by monetary policy. Powell also downplayed the importance of my favourite cycle indicator, namely 2s10s, preferring to look at the shorter part of the yield curve to get a cleaner read on near-term Fed policy expectations, as ostensibly longer duration assets contain more drivers that confound the read-through to the policy outlook. Those shorter yield curves are still quite steep, indicative of the sharp Fed hiking cycle ahead. Despite near-term steepness, markets are nevertheless pricing in peak policy rates and subsequent cuts as soon as the second half of next year, and it remains the case that every post-war recession has been preceded by a 2s10s inversion.

With Treasury yields climbing to multi-year highs, we saw a similar pattern in Europe yesterday, with 10yr yields on bunds (+9.6bps), OATs (+9.7bps) and gilts (+14.2bps) all seeing significant increases. For bunds, that takes the 10yr yield up to the heady heights of 0.46%, which is a level not seen since late-2018, whilst the 4yr bund yield also closed in positive territory for the first time since 2015. That came as Bundesbank President Nagel said that an end to ECB bond-buying in Q3 “opens up the possibility of raising interest rates this year, if needed”, although unlike for the Fed we didn’t see that echoed in future ECB pricing, with the amount of hikes expected by the December meeting seeing a modest fall of -2.2bps yesterday. This growing divergence between an aggressive Fed and a more cautious ECB has been evident in market pricing elsewhere, with the gap between 2yr yields on US and German debt widening to 240.6bps yesterday, which we haven’t seen since 2019. On top of that, the relative differences in the US 2s10s (at 17.0bps) and the German 2s10s (at 76.4bps) is also the widest gap we’ve seen since 2019 too.

On Ukraine, the headline risk around the stilted negotiation progress continued. Following from the weekend’s news that Ukraine refused to surrender Mariupol and that the battles would continue, yesterday’s tone was more negative, as the Kremlin indicated progress in talks had been less than they would have liked, and no agreements had been reached as of yet. The more negative rhetoric around Ukraine saw oil prices added to their gains at the end of last week, with Brent Crude (+7.12%) closing at $115.62/bbl, whilst WTI saw a similar +7.09% increase to $112.12/bbl. As I type this morning, Brent futures are up a further +2.28% while WTI futures are advancing +1.96%. In contrast, European natural gas futures fell -8.32% yesterday, their lowest in three weeks, and are now -72.52% below the peaks reached during the height of the supply fears from the invasion earlier in the month.

Overnight in Asia, equity markets are mostly trading even as markets aggressively reprice the Fed. The Nikkei (+1.63%) is leading gains across the region after yesterday’s holiday driven by gains in financial stocks, as the yen weakened against the dollar. The Hang Seng (+1.13%) is advancing, reversing earlier session losses after Hong Kong listed shares of Alibaba rose more than +3% after the company ramped up its share buyback size from $15 billion to a record high $25 billion to prop up its beaten-up shares. This is the second time Alibaba has upsized its buyback programme in a year. Mainland Chinese stocks are trading mixed with the Shanghai Composite (+0.14%) higher whilst CSI (-0.08%) trading fractionally lower this morning. Meanwhile, Coronavirus-related developments continues to be monitored, following Hong Kong’s move to gradually lift its Covid-19 restrictions.

Moving ahead, stock futures in the US indicate a negative start with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.29%) and Nasdaq (-0.43%) lower after rate fears continue to rise. Indeed, yesterday the S&P 500 came off its best week since November 2020. That saw the S&P 500 only lose -0.04% but the more interest-sensitive tech stocks saw bigger declines, with the NASDAQ down -0.40% and the FANG+ index down -0.65%. Europe also put in a subdued performance, with the STOXX 600 up +0.04%. However, that masked divergences at the country level, with the UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.51%) adding to its YTD gains, whereas the CAC 40 (-0.57%) and the DAX (-0.60%) both ended the day in negative territory.

It’s taken a back seat given the other global developments recently, but it’s worth noting that we’re now less than 3 weeks away from the first round of the French presidential election on April 10. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Macron has seen a notable bounce in the polls, and now stands at 30%, according to Politico’s polling average, up from 25% prior to the invasion. If realised, that would build on the 24% he scored in the first round back in 2017. President Macron’s second-round challenger in 2017, Marine Le Pen of the far-right Rassemblement National, is also currently in second-place this time around at 18%, and behind them are the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon (13%), the conservative Valérie Pécresse (11%) and the far-right Eric Zemmour (11%).

There wasn’t much at all on the data front yesterday, although a notable exception was the German PPI reading for February, which rose to +25.9% on a year-on-year basis (vs. +26.2% expected). I looked at this on a historical perspective in my chart of the day yesterday (link here) and it’s the highest producer price inflation since the aftermath of WWII, and on par with the highest peacetime levels on record. Even excluding energy, PPI is now running at +12.4%, which is the highest since the mid-1970s. Let me know if you want to be added to my CoTD.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index from the US for March, as well as UK public sector net borrowing for February. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos and the ECB’s Villeroy, Panetta and Lane, along with the Fed’s Williams, Daly and Mester, and BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe.

END

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.18 PTS OR 0.19%       //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 667.94 PTS OR 3.15 %  /The Nikkei closed UP 396.88 PTS OR 1.48%        //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.82%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.3643    /Oil UP TO 111.61 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 116.06 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL GREEN        //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3643. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3660: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER//

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

END

3B JAPAN

3c CHINA

CHINA

Big news!!Evergrande states that lenders seized $2billion in deposits.  Evergrande has not paid foreigners since they defaulted in Dec 2021

(zerohedge)

Evergrande Promises Emergency Debt-Restructuring Proposal After Lenders Seize $2 Billion In Deposits

TUESDAY, MAR 22, 2022 – 11:45 AM

China Evergrande Group has become infamous for its unsustainable debt load, the result of runaway development that saddled the company with unfinished and unsold condos, leading it to stiff foreign creditors to the tune of $20 billion (while employees of the company’s EV unit abruptly stopped paying staff and suppliers late last year) when it defaulted late last year.

And so, after months of failing to repay its foreign creditors, lenders have decided to take back what’s owed by force: to wit, Evergrande’s more financially stable property services subsidiary recently discovered that more than $2 billion of its cash had been seized by foreign lenders.

The company made the revelation Tuesday in a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange, where it said that unnamed foreign lenders had seized more than RMB13.4 billion ($2.1 billion) of the subsidiary’s deposits that were pledged as security for “third party guarantees”. The company didn’t disclose which lenders had seized the money, or offer any additional details.

It also announced that it would unveil a debt-restructuring proposal by the beginning of July, according to a Reuters report (back in January, the company said it was aiming to have a restructuring proposal in place within six months). Of course, the loss of more than $2 billion in cash from its subsidiary’s balance sheet has only hastened the need for a new plan.

Evergrande, which owns more than 50% of the property services subsidiary, said it considers the seizure a “major incident” that could negatively impact the company. It has formed an independent committee to “investigate the pledge guarantees” and assess the implications of the seizure.

The seizure is bad news for bondholders, as Evergrande’s foreign currency bonds in default were already trading at a fraction of their $20 billion face value.

However, one source familiar with the situation told the FT that they suspected the money had actually been seized by a Chinese bank.

One person familiar with the situation suggested the money was likely to have been claimed by a mainland Chinese bank. “I think a western bank would understand they can’t take that money,” the person added.

The company said said it “is actively looking for solutions and communicating with its creditors” and had hired King & Wood Mallesons, a Hong Kong law firm, as a legal adviser.

Evergrande, Evergrande Property Services and China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group (Evergrande’s EV subsidiary) said Tuesday that “a large number of additional audit procedures” and the pandemic meant they couldn’t publish its audited annual report by the March 31 deadline, as required by Hong Kong markets. Trading in the firms’ securities has been halted since Monday.

The disaster also threatens to involve at least one “Big Four” firm: PricewaterhouseCoopers has been facing an inquiry by Hong Kong market regulators tied to its work on Evergrande since late last year. The incident has made auditors nervous about their work for Chinese property developers, as other firms – notably Shimao Group and Ronshine China – also said they wouldn’t have their audited financial statements prepared on time.

The question now is will this be the domino the sets off another debt crisis among China’s deeply indebted developers?

end

CHINA//USA/RUSSIA//UKRAINE

USA unexpectedly sanctions Chinese officials for their failure to condemn Russia for their actions in Ukraine.  Also on the list is human rights violations

(zerohedge)

US Unexpectedly Sanctions China Officials Hours After Demanding Beijing Condemn Russia

MONDAY, MAR 21, 2022 – 06:20 PM

Apparently not content with diplomatic war on one front with Russia, the Biden administration appears ready to escalate with China following on the heels of last week’s persistent accusations that Beijing was mulling cooperation with Moscow on weapons resupplies for its Ukraine operation, as well as assistance on Western sanctions evasion.

Monday afternoon Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced more visa restrictions on Chinese officials related to prior charges that state authorities are overseeing the ethnic cleansing of Uighurs. It’s certainly interesting timing in terms of pulling out the the human rights card, given that throughout last week the admin’s China criticisms seemed exclusively focused on its “fence-sitting” over Ukraine.

Blinken called on China to “end its ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang, repressive policies in Tibet, crackdown on fundamental freedoms in Hong Kong, and human rights violations,” as cited in Bloomberg.

“The United States rejects efforts by (Chinese) officials to harass, intimidate, surveil, and abduct members of ethnic and religious minority groups, including those who seek safety abroad, and U.S. citizens, who speak out on behalf of these vulnerable populations,” Blinken said. “We are committed to defending human rights around the world and will continue to use all diplomatic and economic measures to promote accountability.”

It’s unclear as yet which and how many Chinese state officials will be impacted by the new visa restriction measures, which will effectively ban them from travel into the United States, and it’s an expansion of prior Trump restrictions.

Earlier, the White House issued a statement saying – like UK prime minister Boris Johnson’s words over the weekend – that Beijing must condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and stop downplaying it.

Meanwhile, here’s commentary from Rabobank on the implications of how China figures into the Ukraine crisis…

* * *

But next up must surely be many in markets. On Friday, I argued if the Biden-Xi call went well, markets would take it as positive; if it went badly, markets would take it as a huge negative; and yet what we were told happened on the call might not be the whole story. Markets saw the bullet points released by the Chinese side *before the call was even over*, which had key words like “peace” and the need for good US-China relations,…. and fell for it hook, line, and stinker even though the US readout was short and brusque.

That’s a very bad call call. It’s as bad as Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer calling for President Biden to visit Kyiv, when if a bomb hits him it’s WW3; or one on Twitter from an Asian hedge fund player (although in truth I find it hard to tell if they are a parody account or not) which says: “Seems initial reaction to Xi – Biden call was positive, as expected, but let’s see how Western media ‘interprets’ it. US and China= BFFs?” And, when someone pushes back, the response being: “…not everyone’s view counts equally. The view of those participating in the capital markets matters disproportionately more, this is why the US runs the world.” Which is ironically what this is all about, while still being completely wrong.

Geopolitical analysts, including ones who cover markets too, note that underneath the algo-triggering headlines the reality was that Beijing:

  1. Blamed the US for the crisis by expanding NATO, rather than Russia expanding Russia;
  2. Stated the US would have to resolve it using a Chinese idiom;
  3. That this includes addressing Russian security needs too, and linking this all back to Taiwan;
  4. Saying China would help if the US backs off on trade war, tech war, AUKUS, the Quad, etc.

.

end

CHINA/COVID

Shanghai reports record surge in COVID cases, most likely the OMICRON variant

(zerohedge)

Shanghai Reports Record Surge In COVID Cases

MONDAY, MAR 21, 2022 – 06:40 PM

Shanghai, China’s financial center, reported a record surge in daily COVID infections on Monday despite the CCP’s best efforts to contain the ongoing COVID outbreak, which is the worst outbreak in China since the virus first emerged in Wuhan more than two years ago.

The country’s determined efforts to contain growing outbreaks despite the “mild symptoms” reported led to lockdowns that affected more than 50 million people at their peak; but the deleterious impact on China’s economy has led the CCP to ease some restrictions, particularly in the southern tech hub of Shenzhen.

Shanghai reported 24 new domestically-transmitted cases with confirmed symptoms on Monday and another 734 local asymptomatic infections, which Wu Jinglei, director of Shanghai Health Commission, attributed to rounds of mass screening in the city last week, according to the SCMP.

“Shanghai is standing the test of a severe epidemic,” Wu said, referring to the mass testing carried out from last Wednesday to Sunday.

Across mainland China, 1,947 new locally transmitted cases and a further 2,384 asymptomatic infections were reported on Monday, continuing the run of high infection rates. China has reported more than 37,000 local infections this month. Up until February, the number was slightly more than 100K cases.

Liang Wannian, head of the expert panel leading China’s COVID response, defended China’s tough approach to outbreaks

“Ideally, we would achieve zero COVID patients in society but the specificity of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 means we can’t achieve that for the moment,” Liang told state broadcaster China Central Television.

“The dynamic zero-Covid approach means we need to swiftly identify the outbreaks and cut the transmission chain to go towards the direction of zero COVID, or the transmission will be continuous and connected, causing a large-scale rebounding of cases.”

More than 95% of COVID patients in the outbreaks this month showed only mild symptoms or none at all and less than 0.1 percentage point of the 29,127 cases confirmed over the past month were in a severe or critical condition. This includes the elderly, patients with comorbidities and the unvaccinated, according to Jiao Yahui, an official with the National Health Commission.

Meanwhile, the northern province of Jilin, which accounts for most of the cases reported over the past month, confirmed another 2,091 infections, with and without symptoms, on Monday.

END

CHINA/BOEING/CRASH

Another disaster for Boeing:  aviation experts are baffled by a crash as a Boeing 737 nosedives  after gaining altitude.

(zerohedge)

Aviation Experts Baffled By Crash Of China Eastern Airlines Flight MU5735

MONDAY, MAR 21, 2022 – 08:00 PM

Monday’s devastating crash of a Boeing 737 operated by China Eastern Airlines has gripped the US aviation industry (aka Boeing) in what’s shaping up to be another major scandal barely a year after the plane manufacturer had finally managed to move beyond the disastrous rollout of the 737 MAX 8, which left hundreds dead as a design flaw led to two crashes, one in Ethiopia and the other in Indonesia.

Those crashes prompted global groundings and an extensive investigation which revealed that the FAA had essentially abdicated its oversight responsibility – while one internal Boeing email blasted the MAX 8 for being designed by “clowns who were overseen by monkeys”.

As if the crash itself wasn’t embarrassing enough for the jet-maker, footage of the incident showing the plane essentially falling out of the sky has been seen by thousands, if not millions, of people, many of whom are already hoping for answers.

Chinese airlines haven’t bought any new Boeing planes for years at this point, and Monday’s crash raises the possibility that Boeing could be barred from the world’s second-largest market for air travel.

Local Chinese media reported shortly afterward that the crash had been caused by an electrical failure, but whether this is actually true remains unclear. At this point, little is known for certain about the circumstances surrounding the crash (and it will take investigators days, if not weeks, to examine the data from the plane’s “black box”, which must be recovered from the crash site in a mountainous region in Guangxi Province.

But as the investigation begins, the only thing we know for certain is that China’s first passenger airline crash in a decade is extremely unusual as far as plane crashes go. Why? Because, as the video below shows, the plane essentially dropped out of the sky, with the nose of the plane declining at an extreme angle.

According to experts quoted by Bloomberg, this gives the incident an extremely unusual profile.

While there have been a handful of crashes in which an airliner plunged from cruising altitude, few, if any, fit the extreme profile of the Boeing Co. 737-800 as it pointed steeply toward the ground, according to veteran crash investigators and previous accident reports.

“It’s an odd profile,” said John Cox, an aviation safety consultant and former 737 pilot. “It’s hard to get the airplane to do this.”

Just look at the angle of the plane seen in footage of the crash, which has been circulating on social media.

Aviation experts were shocked by the angle of the descent, which was essentially straight down…

…as the plane went from cruising altitude to dropping out of the sky in under two minutes, according to data from flight-tracking services.Source: Ian Miles Cheong

The National Transportation Safety Board has already appointed a senior air safety investigator to investigate the incident (although given the pandemic-related travel restrictions still in place in China, it’s unclear how long it will take for US investigators to arrive on scene).

But as the investigation begins, aviation experts are already saying that the footage of the crash and the data cited above raises more questions, while offering few answers.

And as the world waits to learn more, here’s what we know so far.

  • Flight MU5735 was flying at an altitude of about 29,000 feet roughly 100 miles from its destination, about the point at which the pilots would begin the process of descending, when it started plunging at a far greater rate than normal. Instead of gradually dropping by a few thousand feet per minute, the plane began falling at more than 30,000 feet per minute within seconds, according to tracking data logged by Flightradar24.
  • Flight-tracking data show that the plane dropped by 26,000 feet in the span of one minute, 35 seconds.
  • In an unusual twist, the plane’s dive appeared halt for about 10 seconds, and it climbed briefly, adding an unusual twist to the scenario, before resuming the plunge. “It’s very odd,” said Jeff Guzzetti, the former accident investigation chief for U.S. Federal Aviation Administration.
  • While there are some precedents in which passenger planes suddenly dropped from cruising altitude, most of these cases have important differences. For example, Air France Flight 447, which went down in the Atlantic Ocean on June 1, 2009, fell much slower and more erratically after speed sensors iced up and pilots became confused. All 228 people aboard that flight died.
  • Another similar crash occurred on Dec. 19, 1997, when a pilot with Silk Air 737-300 carrying 104 people dove into a river in Indonesia, killing everyone on board. That plane plunged at more than 38,000 feet per minute, according to Indonesian regulators, who concluded that the pilot likely crashed the plane deliberately.
  • Is that what happened in this case? Well, it’s unclear. The 737-800, like most other jetliners, is designed so that it won’t normally dive at steep angles. Forcing the plane to do so would likely require an extreme effort by a pilot, or a highly unusual malfunction.
  • It’s possible the pilot could have suffered a heart attack or some other medical emergency and slumped onto thte control column, lowering the nose.

Earlier this evening, Boeing CEO David Calhoun sent a message to all employees:

We are deeply saddened by the news of the accident involving a China Eastern Airlines 737-800 airplane. The thoughts of all of us at Boeing are with the passengers and crew members on Flight MU 5735, as well as their families and loved ones.

We have been in close communication with our customer and regulatory authorities since the accident, and have offered the full support of our technical experts to the investigation led by the Civil Aviation Administration of China.

I will keep you apprised of information about the accident as investigation protocols allow. In the meantime, trust that we will be doing everything we can to support our customer and the accident investigation during this difficult time, guided by our commitment to safety, transparency, and integrity at every step.

Dave

Answers will likely be forthcoming, although we suspect, given the crash occurred in China, may not be timely. But one thing is clear: something must have gone seriously wrong for the nose of the plane to have declined at such an extreme angle.

“You need something to hold the nose down,” said Benjamin Berman, a a former NTSB investigator who has experience flying 737s.

END

No survivors as they hunt for the black box/

(zerohedge0

No Survivors Found At Chinese Plane Crash Site As Hunt For Black Box Continues

TUESDAY, MAR 22, 2022 – 07:12 AM

After combing through the wreckage of China Eastern Airlines Flight MU5735, Chinese authorities said early Tuesday that they hadn’t found any survivors from the devastating crash, which marked the end of a 12-year streak without any passenger airline crashes in China. Authorities also haven’t been able to locate the black box from the downed Boeing 737, which could lead to serious obstacles with the investigation.

The plane crashed in the mountains of Guangxi Province in Southern China on Monday with 132 people on board (123 passengers and nine crew). Footage of the crash that circulated on social media showed the plane nosediving out of the sky in a manner that aviation experts said was “highly unusual”even within the context of deadly aviation accidents.

But rescue workers did recover some items from the wreckage, including ID cards and a wallet, among other items that may have belonged to the passengers, according to footage from state broadcaster China Central Television. Scraps and broken components from the plane were scattered on dirt paths and amid fallen branches, as shown by a video by the Chinese Communist Party’s flagship publication People’s Daily. Wreckage from the crash was strewn across a mountainous, heavily forested region, making finding the “black box” exceedingly difficult. Investigators are also hoping to find a copy of the cockpit recorder, which they hope will also provide some clues.

The crash ignited a fire big enough to be seen by satellite imagining, and authorities are using drones and other high-tech solutions to continue hunting for the black box (and for any potential survivors, although based on the nature of the accident, experts expect that all of the passengers and crew were likely lost). To try and clear a path to the debris, China employed excavators, which were shown moving dirt and debris to try and make the wreckage more accessible. Footage of the effort was shown on Chinese TV.

Video of the crash showed the plane nosedive at an angle of about 35 degrees, which is extremely steep.

Assuming all 132 on board have died, Monday’s accident ranks as the deadliest for Chinese aviation in nearly three decades.

The Boeing 737-800 was traveling from the southwestern city of Kunming to the southern metropolis of Guangzhou was at cruising altitude on Monday before nosediving at 1420 local time, according to flight-tracking data.

Rescue efforts are being overseen by China’s Vice Premier Liu He and an official from Beijing’s cabinet. They’re leading a team at Wuzhou, a city in Guangxi near the crash site. Chinese President Xi Jinping, who ordered the search-and-rescue mission, has said he was “shocked” by the accident.

Meanwhile, details about the people who were lost in the crash have started to emerge. Dinglong Culture Company, a Shenzhen-listed firm based in Guangzhou whose businesses include titanium-ore mining and entertainment, said that its chief financial officer, a woman named Fang Fang, was on the flight, according to WSJ.

Zhongxinghua Certified Public Accountants, a Beijing-based accounting firm, said two people working for the firm in its Guangdong branch were on board the plane. They expressed their condolences.

The Civil Aviation Administration of China is leading its own investigation into Monday’s crash, while the American National Transportation Safety Board has appointed a senior air-safety investigator to act as a US representative. Representatives from Boeing, engine maker CFM International and the FAA will also act as technical advisers during the course of the investigation (which is typical when a Boeing plane crashes outside the US).

A checkpoint was set up by authorities not far from the crash site, and no journalists were allowed to pass. Chinese authorities said they will hold a briefing on the crash Tuesday evening, but it’s unclear what they might say (other than to perhaps confirm that everybody on board the doomed flight perished).

END

.

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFFAIRS

//AUSTRIA/COVID

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us: a must read and the Larry Johnson agrees with David Stockman how this ends.

(courtesy Larry Jonson/Mike Whitney)

Larry C. Johnson: “The Ukrainian Army has been Defeated. What’s left is mop-up”, by Mike Whitney – The Unz Review

Inbox

Robert Hryniak7:13 AM (32 minutes ago)
to

https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/larry-c-johnson-the-ukrainian-army-has-been-defeated-whats-left-is-mop-up/

Larry C. Johnson: “The Ukrainian Army Has Been Defeated. What’s Left Is Mop-Up”

MIKE WHITNEY • MARCH 21, 2022

 • 2,200 WORDS• 69 COMMENTS• REPLY

Question 1– Can you explain to me why you think Russia is winning the war in Ukraine?

Larry C. Johnson– Within the first 24 hours of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, all Ukrainian Ground Radar Intercept capabilities were wiped out. Without those radars, the Ukrainian Air Force lost its ability to do air to air intercept. In the intervening three weeks, Russia has established a de facto No Fly Zone over Ukraine. While still vulnerable to shoulder fired Surface to Air Missiles supplied by the U.S. and NATO to the Ukrainians, there is no evidence that Russia has had to curtail Combat Air Operations.

Russia’s arrival in Kiev within three days of the invasion also caught my attention. I recalled that the Nazi’s in Operation Barbarossa took seven weeks to reach Kiev and the required 7 more weeks to subdue the city. The Nazis had the advantage of not pulling punches to avoid civilian casualties and were eager to destroy critical infrastructure. Yet many so-called American military experts claimed that Russia was bogged down. When a 24 mile (or 40 mile, depends on the news source) was positioned north of Kiev for more than a week, it was clear that Ukraine’s ability to launch significant military operations had been eliminated. If their artillery was intact, then that column was easy pickings for massive destruction. That did not happen. Alternatively, if the Ukrainian’s had a viable fixed wing or rotary wing capability they should have destroyed that column from the air. That did not happen. Or, if they had a viable cruise missile capability they should have rained down hell on the supposedly stalled Russian column. That did not happen. The Ukrainians did not even mount a significant infantry ambush of the column with their newly supplied U.S. Javelins.

The scale and scope of the Russian attack is remarkable. They captured territory in three weeks that is larger than the land mass of the United Kingdom. They then proceeded to carry out targeted attacks on key cities and military installations. We have not seen a single instance of a Ukrainian regiment or brigade size unit attacking and defeating a comparable Russian unit. Instead, the Russians have split the Ukrainian Army into fragments and cut their lines of communication. The Russians are consolidating their control of Mariupol and have secured all approaches on the Black Sea. Ukraine is now cut off in the South and the North.

I would note that the U.S. had a tougher time capturing this much territory in Iraq in 2003 while fighting against a far inferior, less capable military force. If anything, this Russian operation should scare the hell out of U.S. military and political leaders.

The really big news came this week with the Russian missile strikes on what are de facto NATO bases in Yavoriv and Zhytomyr. NATO conducted cyber security training at Zhytomyr in September 2018 and described Ukraine as a “NATO partner.” Zhytomyr was destroyed with hypersonic missiles on Saturday. Yavoriv suffered a similar fate last Sunday. It was the primary training and logistics center that NATO and EUCOM used to supply fighters and weapons to Ukraine. A large number of the military and civilian personnel at that base became casualties.

Not only is Russia striking and destroying bases used by NATO regularly since 2015, but there was no air raid warning and there was no shutdown of the attacking missiles.

Question 2– Why is the media trying to convince the Ukrainian people that they can prevail in their war against Russia? If what you say is correct, then all the civilians that are being sent to fight the Russian army, are dying in a war they can’t win. I don’t understand why the media would want to mislead people on something so serious. What are your thoughts on the matter?

Larry C. Johnson– This is a combination of ignorance and laziness. Rather than do real reporting, the vast majority of the media (print and electronic) as well as Big Tech are supporting a massive propaganda campaign. I remember when George W. Bush was Hitler. I remember when Donald Trump was Hitler. And now we have a new Hitler, Vladimir Putin. This is a tired, failed playbook. Anyone who dares to raise legitimate questions about is immediately tarred as a Putin puppet or a Russia stooge. When you cannot argue facts the only recourse is name calling.

Question 3– Last week, Colonel Douglas MacGregor was a guest on the Tucker Carlson Show. His views on the war are strikingly similar to your own. Here’s what he said in the interview:

“The war is really over for the Ukrainians. They have been ground into bits, there is no question about that despite what we hear from our mainstream media. So, the real question for us at this stage is, Tucker, are we going to live with the Russian people and their government or we going to continue to pursue this sort of regime change dressed up as a Ukrainian war? Are we going to stop using Ukraine as a battering ram against Moscow, which is effectively what we’ve done.” (Tucker Carlson– MacGregor Interview)

Do you agree with MacGregor that the real purpose of goading Russia into a war in Ukraine was “regime change”?

Second, do you agree that Ukraine is being used as a staging ground for the US to carry out a proxy-war on Russia?

Larry C. Johnson– Doug is great analyst but I disagree with him—I don’t think there is anyone in the Biden Administration that is smart enough to think and plan in those strategic terms. In my view the last 7 years have been the inertia of the NATO status quo. What I mean by that is that NATO and Washington, believed they could continue to creep east on Russia’s borders without provoking a reaction. NATO and EUCOM regularly carried out exercises—including providing “offensive” training—and supplied equipment. I believe reports in the United States that the CIA was providing paramilitary training to Ukrainian units operating in the Donbass are credible. But I have trouble believing that after our debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan, we suddenly have Sun Tzu level strategists pulling the strings in Washington.

There is an air of desperation in Washington. Besides trying ban all things Russian, the Biden Administration is trying to bully China, India and Saudi Arabia. I do not see any of those countries falling into line. I believe the Biden crew made a fatal mistake by trying to demonize all things and all people Russian. If anything, this is uniting the Russian people behind Putin and they are ready to dig in for a long struggle.

I am shocked at the miscalculation in thinking economic sanctions on Russia would bring them to their knees. The opposite is true. Russia is self-sufficient and is not dependent on imports. Its exports are critical to the economic well-being of the West. If they withhold wheat, potash, gas, oil, palladium, finished nickel and other key minerals from the West, the European and U.S. economies will be savaged. And this attempt to coerce Russia with sanctions has now made it very likely that the U.S. dollar’s role as the international reserve currency will show up in the dustbin of history.

Question 4– Ever since he delivered his famous speech in Munich in 2007, Putin has been complaining about the “architecture of global security”. In Ukraine we can see how these nagging security issues can evolve into a full-blown war. As you know, in December Putin made a number of demands related to Russian security, but the Biden administration shrugged them off and never responded. Putin wanted written assurances that NATO expansion would not include Ukraine (membership) and that nuclear missile systems would not be deployed to Romania or Poland. Do you think Putin’s demands are unreasonable?

Larry C. Johnson– I think Putin’s demands are quite reasonable. The problem is that 99% of Americans have no idea of the kind of military provocation that NATO and the U.S. have carried out over the last 7 years. The public was always told the military exercises were “defensive.” That simply is not true. Now we have news that DTRA was funding biolabs in Ukraine. I guess Putin could agree to allow U.S. nuclear missile systems in Poland and Romania if Biden agrees to allow comparable Russian systems to be deployed in Cuba, Venezuela and Mexico. When we look at it in those terms we can begin to understand that Putin’s demands are not crazy nor unreasonable.

Question 5– Russian media reports that Russian “high precision, air-launched” missiles struck a facility in west Ukraine “killing more than 100 local troops and foreign mercenaries.” Apparently, the Special Operations training center was located near the town of Ovruch which is just 15 miles from the Polish border. What can you tell us about this incident? Was Russia trying to send a message to NATO?

Larry C. Johnson– Short answer—YES! Russian military strikes in Western Ukraine during the past week have shocked and alarmed NATO officials. The first blow came on Sunday, March 13 at Yavoriv, Ukraine. Russia hit the base with several missiles, some reportedly hypersonic. Over 200 personnel were killed, which included American and British military and intelligence personnel, and hundreds more wounded. Many suffered catastrophic wounds, such as amputations, and are in hospital. Yet, NATO and the western media have shown little interest in reporting on this disaster.

Yavoriv was an important forward base for NATO (see here). Until February (prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), the U.S. 7th Army Training Command was operating from Yavoriv as late as mid-February. Russia has not stopped there. ASB Military news reports Russia hit another site, Delyatyn, which is 60 miles southeast of Yavoriv (on Thursday I believe). Yesterday, Russia hit Zytomyr, another site where NATO previously had a presence. Putin has sent a very clear message—NATO forces in Ukraine will be viewed and treated as combatants. Period.

Question 6– Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been lionized in the western media as a “wartime leader” and a modern-day “Winston Churchill”. What the media fails to tell its readers is that Zelensky has taken a number of steps to strengthen his grip on power while damaging fragile democratic institutions in Ukraine. For example, Zelensky has “banned eleven opposition-owned news organizations” and tried to bar the head of Ukraine’s largest opposition party, Viktor Medvedchuk, from running for office on a bogus “terrorist financing” charge. This is not the behavior of a leader that is seriously committed to democracy.

What’s your take on Zelensky? Is he really the “patriotic leader” the media makes him out to be?

Larry C. Johnson– Zelensky is a comedian and an actor. Not a very good one at that in my view. The West is cynically using the fact he is Jewish as a diversion from the size-able contingent of Neo-Nazis (and I mean genuine Nazis who still celebrate the Ukrainian Waffen SS unit’s accomplishments while fighting with the Nazis in WW II). The facts are clear—he is banning opposition political parties and shutting down opposition media. I guess that is the new definition of “democracy.”

Question 7– How does this end? There’s an excellent post at the Moon of Alabama site titled “What Will Be The Geographic End State Of The War In Ukraine. The author of the post, Bernard, seems to think that Ukraine will eventually be partitioned along the Dnieper River “and south along the coast that holds a majority ethnic Russian population.” He also says this:

“This would eliminate Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and create a land bridge towards the Moldavian breakaway Transnistria which is under Russian protection. The rest of the Ukraine would be a land confined, mostly agricultural state, disarmed and too poor to be build up to a new threat to Russia anytime soon. Politically it would be dominated by fascists from Galicia which would then become a major problem for the European Union.”

What do you think? Will Putin impose his own territorial settlement on Ukraine in order to reinforce Russian security and bring the hostilities to an end or is a different scenario more likely?

Larry C. Johnson– I agree with Moon. Putin’s primary objective is to secure Russia from foreign threats and effect a divorce with the West. Russia has the physical resources to be an independent sovereign and is in the process of making that vision come true.

Bio– Larry C Johnson is a veteran of the CIA and the State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism. He is the founder and managing partner of BERG Associates, which was established in 1998. Larry provided training to the US Military’s Special Operations community for 24 years. He has been vilified by the right and the left, which means he must be doing something right. His analysis and commentary can be found at his blog, https://sonar21.com/

end

HISTORY OF UKRAINE EXPLAINED BY DAVID STOCKMAN

THE COMPLETE HISTORY OF UKRAINE/AND HOW THE COUNTRY WILL BE SPLIT UP AT THE END/A MUST READ.

(David Stockman)

Stockman Slams Zelenskyy’s Hyperbole: Pearl Harbor My Eye!

MONDAY, MAR 21, 2022 – 09:40 PM

Authored by David Stockman via AntiWar.com,

We were already getting sick and tired of this Zelensky clown, but the sheer chutzpah of comparing Ukraine’s predicament with Pearl Harbor or 9/11 is just fricking outrageous. To paraphrase Senator Lloyd Bensten’s famous retort to Dan Quayle in the 1992 VP debate: We knew the United States of America and Ukraine isn’t any United States.

To the contrary, it is a cesspool of corruption, mal-governance and rank stupidity on the foreign policy front. For crying out loud, its situation is comparable to the drug cartels taking over Mexico, demanding the return of the Gadsden Purchase and then seeking to join a Russian-led anti-American treaty organization.

That is to say, Ukraine brought the Russian attack on itself by poking the bear in its eyes repeatedly since the 2014 coup. Yet now its leader has the gall to petition the US Congress to start WWII via standing-up a No Fly Zone in lieu of the obvious solution: Namely, Zelensky should resign and make way for a collaborationist government that will sue for peace on the following basis:

  • Recognize that Crimea is Russian territory and always has been since it was purchased by Catherine the Great in 1783;
  • Permit the separation of the Donbass Republics from Ukraine because the overwhelmingly Russian speaking populations there has been part of “New Russia” for more than 300 years and do not wish to be ruled by the anti-Russian fascists and oligarchs who control Kiev;
  • Amend the constitution of the rump state of Ukraine to prohibit its joining NATO or any similar western alliance, while reducing its military to a domestic law enforcement agency.

Those terms may seem harsh, but it’s the only alternative to the complete destruction of Ukraine and an eventual Russian win anyway. The fact is, the NATO cavalry simply ain’t coming no matter how many standing ovations are stumped up by the armchair warriors of the US Congress.

That’s because even the bully boys of Washington and Brussels aren’t ready to trigger WWIII over the broken remnants of a country that never had been a country historically until Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev made it an administrative district of the Soviet Empire – the latter being a stain on mankind that thankfully disappeared into the dustbin of history 31 years ago.

Yet without direct US/NATO engagement with the Russian military forces now occupying growing segments of Ukrainian territory the expedient of sending arms – even highly advanced lethal anti-air and anti-tank weapons – is futile. Russia now has total air superiority over Ukraine’s skies, meaning that incoming NATO weapons (and the so-called “foreign legion” fighters, too) will be destroyed long before they can make a difference.

So for god’s sake Washington needs to stop standing on ceremony and leading the hapless Ukrainian government down the primrose path to national destruction. There is no way out of the current catastrophe except for Washington to:

  • concede that recruiting Ukraine to join NATO and potentially putting NATO missile bases within one minute’s cruise missile flight time from Moscow was an egregious mistake; and
  • that its demonization of Putin as a modern day Hitler on a quest to revive the Soviet Empire is just plain War Party hogwash and is no justification for its sweeping Sanctions War, most especially if Kiev capitulates to Moscow’s terms.

The truth, in fact, is more nearly the opposite. That is, there really are not two distinct nations there, one invading the other. Russia and Ukraine have never been neighboring independent states like Germany and France or Spain and Portugal or Columbia and Peru. To the contrary, they have been an intermingled territory and peoples for the last 1300 years with borders, governing arrangements episodic external invasions all over the lot.

The Ukrainian language itself is testimony to that history and geography. The dialects spoken in the Donbas (brown and yellow areas) are a mixture of Ukrainian and Russian; the old Galician territories of Western Ukraine centered in Lviv (red areas) are heavily influenced by Polish, Slovakian and Rumanian vocabularies.; and the blue areas of the North present dialects heavily influenced by Belarusian.

What is also true is that these segmented populations have never been united under a common polity except by communist arms between 1922 and 1991; then between 1991 and 2014 by tenuous and continuously shifting electoral balances after the Ukrainian administrative entity was arbitrarily disgorged from the old Soviet Union; and finally after the February 2014 coup by dint of a Kiev government based on central and western Ukraine that essentially declared a civil war on Crimea (which seceded) and the eastern, Russian-speaking Donbas regions that have tried to do the same.

So again, what’s wrong with partition? At the end of the day, Zelensky stood before Congress and had the gall to demand WWIII in behalf of an abortion of a nation that has virtually no chance of long-term survival in its present form. Yet the knuckleheads from both parties are in such war heat that they vociferously applauded the unctuous rantings of a clown who should have stuck to the comedy business.

Still, for want of doubt about the madness of defending Ukraine by economic warfare now, and military confrontation with Russia if the warmongers get their way, just recall how the arbitrary borders depicted above got here. If this mongrel merits all out defense in behalf of the “rule of law,” then the rule of law be damned.

Kiev Is the Ancestral Homeland of Russia

In the first place, Putin is essentially correct when he says that Russia and much of the Ukrainian territory have been one through long stretches of history. Ironically, therefore, the Kiev today being laid to waste by the Russian army is actually the birthplace of Russia!

As an excellent Washington post history recently explained,

The “Rus” – the people whose name got tacked on to Russia – were originally Scandinavian traders and settlers who made their way from the Baltic Sea through the marshes and forests of Eastern Europe down toward the fertile riverlands of what’s now Ukraine. Other Viking adventurers journeyed to Constantinople, the great capital of the Byzantine Empire, to find their fortune – sometimes as hired muscle.

The first major center of the “Rus” was at Kiev, established in the 9th century. In 988, Vladimir, a prince of the Kievan Rus, was baptized by a Byzantine priest in the old Greek colony of Khersonesos on the Crimean coast. His conversion marked the advent of Orthodox Christianity among the Rus and remains a moment of great nationalist symbolism for Russians. Putin invoked this older Vladimir in a speech when justifying his annexation of Crimea.

However, successive Mongol invasions beginning in the 13th century subdued Kiev’s influence, and led the Russians to eventually migrate north. That led to the rise of other Rus settlements including Moscow, while the Turkic descendants of the Mongol Golden Horde formed their own Khanate along the northern rim of the Black Sea and Crimea.

During the next several centuries the Ukrainian territory was a no man’s land, hosting successive invasions and occupations by external forces. The land that’s now Ukraine lay on the margins of competing empires, making it a region of permanent contest and shifting borders.

At length, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, which, at its peak encompassed a huge swath of Europe, dominated much of the land. But over the centuries Ukraine would also see the incursions of Hungarians, Ottomans, Swedes, bands of Cossacks and the armies of successive Russian czars.

By the late 17th century after much of Europe had congealed into today’s borders, there was still no nation of Ukraine. Instead, as these meandering borders appeared and disappeared repeatedly, Russia and Poland (Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth) eventually split much of the territory of what’s now Ukraine along the Dnieper River, as shown in the map below. Approximately 355 years ago (1667), to be exact, the areas to the east of the Dnieper, which now include the Donbas, were acquired by Russia and incorporated into the Russian State.

So, yes, the current day rebel provinces in the Donbas, which were giving partial autonomy from Kiev by the Minsk Agreements of 2015, have actually been “Russian” for more than three and one-half centuries and “Ukrainian” for about 31 years. Or as Secy Blinkey would say, because it’s borders.

The Rise of New Russia

Russia’s advance continued a century later during the 18th century rule of Catherine the Great, who proclaimed her domains along the Black Sea constituted “Novorossiya” or “new Russia.” Back then, the Russian court even harbored dreams of collapsing the Ottoman empire entirely, extending Moscow’s reach to Istanbul and even Jerusalem.

The infamous architect of Catherine’s imperialism, Grigoriy Potemkin, thus told his sovereign:

Believe me, you will acquire immortal fame such as no other sovereign of Russia ever had,” when offering the empress counsel in 1780 on plans to wrest Crimea away from Ottoman suzerainty. “This glory will open the way to still further and greater glory.”

Meanwhile, the partitions of Poland in the late 18th century led to the city of Lviv– once a major regional hub and a center of Jewish culture in Eastern Europe – falling under the rule of the Austro-Hungarian empire. So even in the west there was still no state of Ukraine, but as the Washington post further noted,

It was there in the mid-19th century where Ukrainian nationalism began to take hold, rooted in the traditions and dialects of the region’s peasants and the aspirations of intellectuals who had fled the stifling rule of Russia rule further to the east.

The State the Commies Made

The striking thing is that as of 1900, when much of Europe was fully formed albeit in part under the rubric of the Hapsburg’s empire, there was still no nation called Ukraine. In the east, Russia and today’s Ukrainian territories were one, while in the west the Galician territories were part of the Hapsburg Empire.

Needless to say, World War I and the Bolshevik revolution in 1917 triggered more traumas and upheaval in the areas that now constitute Ukraine. The new Bolshevik government was desperate to end hostilities with Germany and its allies and signed a treaty in the town of Brest-Litovsk in 1918 . As the Washington Post further amplified, the treaty ceded,

….some of Russia’s domains to the Central powers and recognized the independence of others, including Ukraine.

The terms of the treaty were nullified by Germany’s defeat later in the year, but the genie of Ukrainian nationalism was out of the bottle. Independence movements of various stripes sprung up in cities like Lviv, Kiev and Kharkiv, but were eventually all swept away amid the wider struggle for power in Russia.

That struggle was mightily fueled at the misbegotten Versailles “peace” conference where the long dead nation of Poland was revived by Woodrow Wilson. The latter nearly single-handedly resurrected the nation of Poland, doing so with a keen eye not to the historic maps of Europe but to the polish vote in Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago.

Soon thereafter a revived Poland reclaimed Lviv and a chunk of what’s now western Ukraine on the grounds that this was sacred Polish, not Ukrainian, territory.

In any event, the region became a key battleground of the Russian Civil War, which pitted Bolshevik forces against an array of White Russian armies, led by loyalists to the old czarist regime as well as other political opportunists. After a lot of bloodshed – and other battles with Poland – the Bolsheviks emerged triumphant and officially declared the Ukrainian Socialist Soviet Republic in 1922.

At long last, therefore, the maps of the world now at least had something that roughly resembled modern Ukraine – even if it was wrested by Bolshevik rifles.

The years that followed, however, would be even more traumatic. In the late 1920s and early 1930s, Ukraine suffered heavily under the rule of Soviet despot Josef Stalin. A vast segment of Ukraine’s rural population was displaced and dispossessed by Stalin’s aggressive collectivization policies. A man-made famine (the Holodomor) in 1932-3 led to the deaths of some three million people.

To make up the numbers, Russian speakers from elsewhere immigrated to eastern Ukraine’s hollowed out towns and cities, leaving a demographic footprint that defines Ukraine’s divisive politics to this day.

As shown in the map below, the tiny principality of Ukraine as of 1654 (dark blue area) had not been much to write home about until the Russians – Czars and Commissars, alike – bestirred themselves with nation-building. Russian nation-building, that is.

The yellow areas being the winnings of Catherine the Great and other Russian Czars over 1654-1917, while the added territories seconded by Lenin’s Red Army are represented by the purple area of the map below. These were historic “new Russia” territories added to the Ukraine administrative entity for ease of Communist rule.

Later came the rest of Ukraine proper via added gifts from Stalin’s Red Army (light blue area, 1939-1945) . These territories were stolen from the modern artificial state of Poland confected at Versailles. And the previously mentioned gift of Crimea (red area) was added by Khrushchev in 1954.

In short, it needs be recalled that America’s borders were established by democratic politicians and have stood the test of 167 years of time during which they have been perfectly fixed. By contrast, today’s Ukraine depicted below is the handiwork of tyrants and commies, which changed by the decade.

So the question recurs. Who in their right mind would select the historical mongrel depicted below to bring the world to the brink of nuclear war in order to establish the purported universal rule of law and sanctity of borders?

Indeed, we’d say it’s only folks who have lost their minds to the TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome). This entire imbroglio, in fact, is not about the nation of Russia, the rule of law, foreign policy or the genuine safety and liberty of the American homeland.

To the contrary, it’s about a single member of the 7 billion-strong human race – the utterly demonized, vilified and reviled Vladimir Putin. The Biden mainstream of the Dem party is still not over the shock of November 2016, and apparently mean to do battle permanently with the ogre of Moscow whom they falsely hold accountable for their own self-inflicted defeat.

As it happens, their endlessly repeated mantra that Putin’s expansionist intentions were revealed when he “seized” Crimea in 2014 tells you all you need to know. That claim is so hypocritical, threadbare and tendentious that only minds possessed with TDS would even dare to peddle it.

That’s because it amounts to saying is that the dead hand of the Soviet presidium must be defended at all costs – as if the security of North Dakota depended upon it!

As previously mentioned, however, the allegedly “occupied” territory of Crimea was actually purchased from the Ottomans by Catherine the Great in 1783, thereby satisfying the longstanding quest of the Russian czars for a warm-water port. Over the ages, Sevastopol then emerged as a great naval base at the strategic tip of the Crimean peninsula, where it became home port to the mighty Black Sea Fleet of the czars and then the Soviet commissars, too.

For the next 171 years Crimea was an integral part of Russia (until 1954). And that’s a fact that you can look up in the Google/CIA archives!

In fact, that span equals the 170 years that have elapsed since California was annexed by a similar thrust of “Manifest Destiny” on this continent, thereby providing, incidentally, the United States Navy with its own warm-water port in San Diego.

While no foreign forces subsequently invaded the California coasts, it was most definitely not Ukrainian rifles, artillery and blood that famously annihilated The Charge of the Light Brigade at the Crimean city of Balaclava in 1854, either: The defending combatants were Russians fighting for their homeland against invading Turks, French and Brits.

At the end of the day, security of its historical port in Crimea is and long has been Russia’s Red Line, and thereby none of Washington’s business.

Unlike today’s feather-headed Washington pols, even the enfeebled Franklin Roosevelt at least knew that he was in Soviet “Russia” when he made port in the Crimean city of Yalta in February 1945.

Maneuvering to cement his control of the Kremlin in the intrigue-ridden struggle for succession after Stalin’s death a few years later, Nikita Khrushchev allegedly spent 15 minutes reviewing his “gift” of Crimea to his subalterns in Kiev.

As it happened, therefore, Crimea became part of the Ukraine only by writ of the former Soviet Union:

On April 26, 1954 The decree of the Presidium of the USSR Supreme Soviet transferring the Crimea Oblast from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR. Taking into account the integral character of the economy, the territorial proximity and the close economic and cultural ties between the Crimea Province and the Ukrainian SSR….

So, yes, there is every reason for a Kiev government which finally sues for peace to return Crimea to Russia, which owned it all along; and in which Ukrainians accounts for less than 15% of the predominant Russian speaking population. For Washington to claim otherwise and encourage Zelensky to hold out is tantamount to a naked case of hegemonic arrogance.

After all, during the long decades of the Cold War, the West did nothing to liberate the “captive nation” of Ukraine – with or without the Crimean appendage bestowed upon it in 1954. Nor did it draw any red lines in the mid-1990s when a financially desperate Ukraine rented back Sevastopol and the strategic redoubts of Crimea to an equally pauperized Russia.

In short, in the era before we got our Pacific port in 1848 and even during the 170-year interval since then, America’s national security has depended not one whit on the status of Russian-speaking Crimea and the Donbas regions of eastern Ukraine. The fact that the local population of the former in March 2014 chose fealty to the Grand Thief in Moscow over the ruffians and rabble that have seized Kiev amounts to a giant, “So what?”

Still, it was this final aggressive drive of Washington and NATO into the internal affairs of Russia’s historical neighbor and vassal, Ukraine, that largely accounts for the current dangerous confrontation. Likewise, it is virtually the entire source of the false claim that Russia has aggressive, expansionist designs on the former Warsaw Pact states in the Baltics, Poland and beyond.

The latter is a nonsensical fabrication. In fact, it was the neocon meddlers from Washington who crushed Ukraine’s last semblance of democratic governance when they enabled ultra-nationalists and crypto-Nazis to gain government positions after the February 2014 coup, which threw-out Ukraine’s legitimately elected, Russia-leaning president.

In this context, moreover, the history of the 1930s and 1940s must never be forgotten. As indicated above, Stalin decimated upwards of 15% of the Ukrainian population during the Holodomer (starvations) and then moved huge numbers of Russian-speakers into the Donbas to safeguard its chemical, steel and armaments industries from the defiant locals who were sent to Siberia.

Thereafter, when Hitler’s Wehrmacht came charging through Ukraine on its way to the bloody battle of Stalingrad, it had no trouble recruiting hundreds of thousands of vengeance-seeking Ukrainian nationalists to its ranks to do its dirty work: That is, the brutal liquidation of Jews, Poles, Gypsies and other untermenschen.

In fact, during the fall of 1941 began the mass killings of Jews that continued through 1944. An estimated 1.5 million Ukrainian Jews perished, and over 800,000 were displaced to the east; at Baby Yar in Kyiv nearly 34,000 were killed in just the first two days of massacre – and all of these depredations were assisted and often executed by local Ukrainian nationalists.

Then, of course, the tide turned and the Red Army came marching back though the rubble of Ukraine on its way to Berlin. After their victory over the Germans at the Battle of Stalingrad in early 1943, the Soviets launched an equally brutal scorched earth counteroffensive westward, searching high and low for traitors and collaborators among the Ukrainian population who had allegedly aided the Wehrmacht.

The Germans thus began their slow retreat from Ukraine in mid-1943, leaving wholesale destruction in their wake. In November the Soviets reentered Kyiv, where guerrilla activity intensified amid bloody revenge killings which claimed huge numbers of civilian victims. By the spring of 1944 the Red Army had penetrated into Galicia (western Ukraine), and by the end of October Ukraine was a bloody wasteland, once again under Red Army control.

So it may be fairly asked: What Washington lame brains did not understand that triggering “regime change” in Kiev in February 2014 would reopen this entire blood-soaked history of sectarian and political strife?

Moreover, once they had opened Pandora’s Box, why was it so hard to see that an outright partition of Ukraine with autonomy for the Donbas and Crimea, or even accession to the Russian state from which these communities had originated, would have been a perfectly reasonable resolution?

Certainly that would have been far preferable to dragging all of Europe into the lunacy of the current military showdown and further embroiling the Ukrainian factions in a suicidal civil war.

Needless to say, Zelensky gets none of this in the slightest – even though as a native and Russian speaking son of southeastern Ukraine, he actually grew up in a part of modern Ukraine that had been Russian for 370 years!

That’s right. He’s just the perennial short guy feasting on his 15 minutes of fame. But enough is enough already. In a rational world this double-talking creep should have been sent packing this morning by the US Congress, but these war-obsessed nincompoops can’t see the handwriting on the wall.

So once again, here it is. This is where the story ends – even as Washington wages Sanctions War on the entire global economy and thereby the American people as well.

How Ukraine Will Be Partitioned After Kiev Capitulates

In any event, a TV actor who has no script other than that handed to him by his Washington/NATO overseers is one thing. And at the end of the day, it small potatoes compared to the grotesque negligence and misdirection of Sleepy Joe’s own keepers.

That is to say, Secy Blinkey and Snake Sullivan should be bent over the above map in earnest conversation with their Russian counterparts as to the fine points of the partition, and the meaning of “neutrality,” “de-nazification” and “demilitarization” of the green area of the map, which is to become the future “Ukraine,” if there is to be anything left at all.

Needless to say, they are not even talking to the Russians. They are, in fact, so red in tooth and claw with the blood of economic warfare that they would drive the global economy to collapse rather than acknowledge that they – and they alone – brought this horrendous situation to the doorstep of the world.

END

A second hypersonic missile used in Ukraine according to Russian defense ministry

(Ozimek/EpochTimes)

2nd Hypersonic Missile Used In Ukraine: Russian Defense Ministry

TUESDAY, MAR 22, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Russia said it has used a hypersonic missile in Ukraine for the second time since the outbreak of hostilities, this time claiming to have struck a storage facility for fuel and lubricants used by the Ukrainian armed forces near the southern village of Kostiantynivka.

Russia’s defense ministry said in a March 20 operational update that on Sunday morning it had launched an aircraft-based hypersonic Kinzhal (“Dagger”) missile from airspace over Crimea, hitting and destroying the storage facility near Kostyantynivka, which is in the northern part of the Mikolaiv Oblast.

If accurate, this would be the second use of a hypersonic missile in the Russia–Ukraine war and, at the same time, the second use of such a weapon in combat. The first reportedly took place on Friday, with Russia’s defense ministry saying its forces used a hypersonic missile to destroy a large underground storage facility for missiles and aviation ammunition in Ukraine’s Ivano-Frankovsk region.

The Pentagon has not confirmed that a hypersonic weapon was used in the attacks and The Epoch Times has not been able to verify the claims.

Hypersonic weapons are defined as anything traveling beyond Mach 5, or around 3,800 mph, which is five times faster than the speed of sound.

The United States is in a race with Russia and China to develop hypersonic weapons and is accelerating development to catch up.

Hypersonic weapons travel at speeds similar to ballistic missiles but their maneuverability makes them difficult to shoot down.

Operational Updates

Russia’s defense ministry said in a Monday update that, to date, Russian forces have destroyed 216 Ukrainian drones, 1,506 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 152 multiple launch rocket systems, 592 field artillery and mortars, and 1,284 special military vehicles.

The Ukrainian military on Monday reported more attacks against Russian forces, claiming that at least 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in combat.

The Ukrainian General Staff said that at least 1,535 Russian armored personnel carriers, 969 vehicles, 498 tanks, 121 helicopters, 97 aircraft, and 24 drones have been destroyed.

British intelligence said Monday that heavy fighting continues north of Kyiv and that taking the capital remains Russia’s “primary military objective.”

The bulk of Russian forces remain around 16 miles from the center of Kyiv, with a Russian advance on the city from the northeast remaining “stalled,” according to UK intelligence.

Nearly 3.5 million people have fled Ukraine amid the fighting, according to the U.N., while at least 816 civilians have been killed.

END

Ukraine sees signs of Belarus entering the war of which I highly doubt

(Philips/EpochTimes)

Ukraine Sees Signs Of Another Neighbor Planning ‘Direct Invasion’

TUESDAY, MAR 22, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense on Sunday claimed that Belarus is preparing its military to invade Ukraine before warning Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

There are “signs of preparation” that Belarus will carry out the “direct invasion of the territory of Ukraine,” the Defense Ministry wrote on social media, according to a translation. It did not provide evidence for its claim, nor did it provide other details.

“The direct involvement of Belarusian troops in Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine, against the will of ordinary soldiers and the vast majority of the Belarusian people, will be a fatal mistake for Alexander Lukashenko,” the ministry added.

Officials in Belarus have not issued a public comment in response to Ukraine’s allegations.

Belarus shares a lengthy border with Ukraine. Russian forces were seen amassing in Belarus in the weeks leading up to the start of the conflict on Feb. 24, although so far, it appears no Belarussian forces have been deployed in Ukraine.

Lukashenko said last week that his country had intercepted a missile that was fired from Ukraine, claiming the move is an attempt to draw his country into the conflict.

I warned you that they would push us into this operation, into this war,” Lukashenko told Belarusian soldiers via state news agency BelTA.

“There’s nothing for us to do there, and we haven’t been invited,” Lukashenko was quoted as saying by the outlet, reported Reuters. “I want to emphasize again … We are not going to become involved in this operation that Russia is conducting in Ukraine.”

Over the weekend, Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus since the early 1990s, praised Putin in an interview with Japanese broadcaster TBS. Lukashenko, who once kept his distance from the Kremlin, is now one of Putin’s closest allies.

“He and I haven’t only met as heads of state, we’re on friendly terms,” Lukashenko said. “I’m absolutely privy to all his details, as far as possible, both state and personal.”

He continued to say that “Putin is absolutely fit, he’s in better shape than ever … this is a completely sane, healthy person, physically healthy—he’s an athlete.”

On Friday, Putin held a massive rally in Moscow marking the eighth anniversary of Moscow’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula. Reports claimed that more than 100,000 people attended the event.

More than three weeks into the invasion, Western governments and analysts see the conflict shifting to a war of attrition, with bogged down Russian forces launching long-range missiles at cities and military bases as Ukrainian forces carry out hit-and-run attacks and seek to sever Russian supply lines.

The British Defense Ministry asserted Sunday that Russia’s failure to gain control of Ukrainian airspace “has significantly blunted their operational progress,” forcing them to rely on weapons launched from Russia.

Over the weekend, the Russian Defense Ministry said a Kinzhal hypersonic missile hit a Ukrainian fuel depot in Kostiantynivka, a city near Mykolaiv. The Russian military said Saturday that it used a Kinzhal for the first time in combat to destroy an ammunition depot in the Carpathian Mountains in western Ukraine.

Russia has said the Kinzhal, carried by MiG-31 fighter jets, has a range of up to about 1,250 miles and flies at 10 times the speed of sound. The Pentagon says it has not yet confirmed its use in Ukraine.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

end

SYRIA/UAE/USA

USA is very angry after Syria’s Assad makes an historic visit to the UAE

(zerohedge)

US Angered After Syria’s Assad Makes Historic Visit To UAE

MONDAY, MAR 21, 2022 – 10:40 PM

Since it became clear that the Assad government emerged victorious after the decade-long proxy war to effect regime change in Damascus sponsored by the West and Gulf powers, there have been slow but consistent efforts by Arab countries to normalize relations with Syria once again. 

On Friday, for the first time since the war began in 2011, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visited an Arab state to meet with its leader. It was none other than US and Saudi ally UAE. After long being branded an international ‘pariah’ it was a shock for some to see Assad in photographs speaking warmly to Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan.Assad’s March 18 visit to UAE. Source: Syrian Presidency Facebook page via AP

The UAE sheikh “stressed that Syria is a fundamental pillar of Arab security, and that the UAE is keen to strengthen cooperation with it”, according to UAE state news. Assad also met with prime minister of the UAE, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.

The Associated Press called it “clear signal” of Assad’s coming reengagement with the Arab world as he “comes in from the cold” – with the likelihood of Syria eventually rejoining the Arab League.

And The Wall Street Journal wrote, “The Emirates, Egypt and Jordan are trying to bring him back into the Arab diplomatic fold—a move that could unlock trade benefits for all sides and reduce Iran’s influence. U.A.E. Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed met with Mr. Assad in Damascus in November, making him the most senior Emirati official to visit Syria since the start of the civil war.”

Perhaps to be expected, Washington was angered by UAE authorizing and welcoming the visit, slamming it as an “apparent attempt to legitimize” Assad.

We are profoundly disappointed and troubled by this apparent attempt to legitimize Bashar al-Assad, who remains responsible and accountable for the death and suffering of countless Syrians” said State Department spokesman Ned Price said of the visit.

He also warned countries wanting to deal with Syria about US-led sanctions, saying they must “weigh carefully the horrific atrocities visited by the regime on the Syrians over the last decade,” according to the statement. He said the US won’t lift sanctions or provide waivers for anyone doing business with Damascus “until there is irreversible progress toward a political solution, which we have not seen.”

end

Russia Slams Biden’s Cyberattack Charge: ‘We Don’t Engage In State-Level Banditry Like The US’

TUESDAY, MAR 22, 2022 – 10:31 AM

The Kremlin on Tuesday condemned the latest accusations out of Washington that it’s planning major cyber attacks against the West as retaliation for US and EU sanctions, saying it doesn’t engage in “banditry” on the state level like “many Western countries” and the US.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters in response to the Monday statements of President Biden, “unlike many Western countries, including the United States, Russia does not engage in state-level banditry.”

President Biden had said he has seen “evolving intelligence” that points to possible Russian government preparations for cyberattacks against the United States. The president was mainly addressing tech and internet companies in the US, urging the private sector to “immediately” harden “cyber defenses.” 

He told them now is “a critical moment to accelerate our work to improve domestic cybersecurity and bolster our national resilience.” He warned US businesses that they must harden their defenses against such threats.

“Today, my Administration is reiterating those warnings based on evolving intelligence that the Russian Government is exploring options for potential cyberattacks,” Biden said in the Monday address.

The steps included strengthening US infrastructure with “extensive cybersecurity measures for the Federal Government and those critical infrastructure sectors where we have authority to do so.”

He announced a new plan “public-private partnerships and initiatives to enhance cybersecurity across all our critical infrastructure.”

“Congress has partnered with us on these efforts — we appreciate that Members of Congress worked across the aisle to require companies to report cyber incidents to the United States Government,” Biden added.

He had also warned, “The magnitude of Russia’s cyber capacity is fairly consequential, and it’s coming.” Biden said specifically of Putin that he still holds the cyber attack option in his arsenal. “He hasn’t used it yet, but it’s part of his playbook.”

BIOLABS

Russian Accusations: Pentagon Reportedly Spent $200 Million on Bioresearch in Ukraine at Numerous Facilities

Inbox

Robert Hryniak5:36 PM (1 hour ago)
to

one does wonder why this was necessary, or for whose Benefit? 

Russian Accusations: Pentagon Reportedly Spent $200 Million on Bioresearch in Ukraine at Numerous Facilities

Russian Defence Ministry briefing showing US-sponsored biolabs on Ukrainian territory. Photo : Russian Ministry of Defence

The Russian Defense Department has presented documents allegedly proving US-Ukranian bio-research was conducted with the Ukrainian military. Gateway Pundit has the receipts.

The Pentagon acknowledges that the US has spent $200 million on programs in 46 biolabs in Ukraine since launched by young Senator Barack Obama in 2005.

US officials have so far insisted the funding went solely to the Ukrainian Ministry of Health for civilian purposes. Allegedly the program was designed to dispose of Soviet-era bioweapons materials. This does not explain why it is necessary to open dozens of new biolabs costing $200 million.

“There are no U.S. military-run labs in Ukraine,” said Andy Weber, a member of the Arms Control Association Board of Directors and a former Assistant Secretary of Defense for nuclear, chemical, and biological defense programs, according to PolitiFact. “Rather, the U.S. Department of Defense Cooperative Threat Reduction Program has provided technical support to the Ukrainian Ministry of Health since 2005 to improve public health laboratories, whose mission is analogous to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,” Weber said, according to PolitiFact.

TRENDING: More… Bloomberg News Offers Tips For Americans Struggling With Inflation: Let Your Pets Die

“There are no Ukrainian biological weapons laboratories supported by the United States — not near Russia’s border or anywhere”, stated U.S. Representative to the United Nations  Linda Thomas-Greenfield on Friday, March 18.

Speaking to the UN Security Council on Friday, Russian representative Vassily Nebenzia asserted “documents signed by the head of the DTRA (Defense Threat Reduction Agency) office at the US Embassy in Kiev Joanna Wintrol” prove the Pentagon’s DTRA was working directly with the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense on bioresearch (Gateway reported).

Today, Gateway Pundit presents these documents.

On February 20, 2018, Kiev Defense Threat Reduction Office Chief Joanna Wintrol wrote to Dr. Serhii Lytovka in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine:

 “The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has been designated as an additional Executive Agent for the implementation of the Agreement Between the Department of Defense of the United States of America and the Ministry of Health of Ukraine Concerning Cooperation in the Area of Prevention of Proliferation of Technology, Pathogens and Expertise that could be Used during the Development of Biological Weapons, dated August 29, 2005.

I kindly request that you provide a list of facilities and laboratories from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine which will participate in the implementation of the international technical assistance program “Cooperative Biological Engagement Program”.

The project is executed by Black & Veatch Special Projects Corp. The Donor of the project – the U.S. Department of Defense/ Defense Threat Reduction Agency.”

As Gateway Pundit reported, Hunter Biden’s firm Rosemont Seneca invested in a firm called Metabiota, which was a subcontractor to Black & Veatch’s work with DTRA.

The DTRA cooperation with the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine dates back at least to an October 2017 “reboot”:

Further documentation of Joanna Wintrol’s cooperation with Ukrainian Ministry of Defense biolabs in Kharkiv, Lviv and Odessa:

END

UPDATE ON THE UKRAINE-RUSSIA WAR THIS AFTERNOON

end

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE

Former BlackRock advisor says Pfizer colluded with FDA to hide data that shows COVID “vaccine” clinical trials FAILED

Sunday, March 20, 2022 by: Ethan Huff
Tags: Clinical trialsCollusionconspiracycorruptionCOVIDDataEdward DowdfailureFDAfraudNaomi WolfPfizerPlandemictreasonvaccine injuryvaccines

This article may contain statements that reflect the opinion of the author

13KVIEWS

Image: Former BlackRock advisor says Pfizer colluded with FDA to hide data that shows COVID “vaccine” clinical trials FAILED

(Natural News) Investment advisor Edward Dowd, who used to work for BlackRock, told Naomi Wolf in a recent interview that pharmaceutical giant Pfizer colluded with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to hide unfavorable clinical trial data showing that the Pfizer-BioNTech Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) “vaccine” is not safe and effective.

As the truth comes out, Dowd said, investors are pulling out of COVID jab manufacturer stocks, which include not just Pfizer but also Moderna and others.

From 2002 to 2012, just to give you a background into his expertise on the subject, Dowd grew BlackRock’s growth strategy from $2 billion to $14 billion.

After being introduced by Wolf as a “courageous, well-informed whistleblower,” Dowd proceeded to explain how his initial concerns about taking the experimental injections himself led him down a research path that uncovered major fraud and corruption.

“I learned from a friend in the biotech industry that Pfizer had failed its all-cause mortality endpoint in the initial trial,” Dowd said. “All-cause mortality is the gold standard in any drug trial at the FDA. When you fail that endpoint, the drug is not approved.”

When Big Pharma and the FDA both expressed unwillingness to release any safety data for the injections, Dowd grew even more skeptical about them. This compelled him to come out publicly to reveal his discoveries.

“I got [louder] about fraud when the FDA decided to hide the clinical data for 75 years,” Dowd explained.

“I’m an investor, so let me just say how I think about the world. I don’t wait for people to tell me what just happened. My job was to come up with an analysis, mosaic and investment thesis, and then over time I’d be proven right.”

“So, I don’t wait for the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Washington Post to tell me anything. Because by the time that happens, the opportunity to make money is lost. So, I started screaming fraud as soon as I saw that – because it’s unprecedented to hide data from the public.”

Global economy is about to go up in flames

Earlier in the year, Dowd also spoke with Steve Bannon about the impending global debt bubble collapse, declaring that “we’re at the end.”

Pfizer and Moderna, Dowd revealed during that appearance, are modern-day versions of Enron in that they are both inherently fraudulent companies.

“I also have a thesis as to what is going on at Pfizer and Moderna, and how those companies are probably fraudulent,” Dowd said at that time. “These vaccines were pushed through and I think the clinical trial data is fraud.”

“I want to liken what’s gone on here to what happened during the great financial crisis. We had rating agencies, third-party verification sources that were able to perpetuate the fraud because the money got too big. Their institutions became corrupted with the institutional imperative and they got AAA ratings, which we all know in hindsight those were not AAA ratings.”

Dowd said that many on Wall Street are listening to him, albeit fearfully, because they know he knows what he is talking about. Many of them are also fully jabbed, and are now concerned about the long-term health effects of what they have done to their bodies.

Neither the mainstream media nor the government, Dowd said, are going to save anyone from what is currently unfolding. The truth is being revealed at breakneck speed, and soon it will be impossible for those who committed crimes against humanity to hide any longer from the consequences.

To keep up with the latest news coverage about the COVID-19 “vaccine” fraud, be sure to visit ChemicalViolence.com.

end


ISSUES/GLOBAL ISSUES

COVID// VACCINE//GLOBAL//CANADA

a long one but the data is clear!! double vaxxed is causing AIDS cases and other harmful injuries

special thanks to Milan S for sending this to us:

Canada AIDS data

Inbox

12:48 AM (7 hours ago)to mehttps://thetruedefender.com/canada-government-data-is-terrifying-boosted-people-have-aids-and-are-e-5-1x-more-likely-to-die-of-c-19-than-the-unvaccinated/

GLOBAL ISSUES

end

VACCINE MANDATES/

END

VACCINE INJURIES

END

/

VACCINE IMPACT

Apple Suffers “Mysterious” Outage as Biden Issues Cyber Attack Warning

March 21, 2022 6:11 pm

Apple services suffered a major outage on Monday, when at one point at least 25 of its services went offline, disrupting both individual users and businesses. The mysterious outage came at the same time President Joe Biden released a nationwide cybersecurity warning to all Americans telling them to prepare for a Russian cyberattack.

Read More…


Michael Every

Michael Every on the day’s major topics

Rabobank: We Are Seeing A Struggle For A New World Order

TUESDAY, MAR 22, 2022 – 10:11 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Freedom isn’t free money

As we know, the Ukraine war is taking place on several fronts: and, as we underlined before it started, the Ukraine metacrisis is too.

The Russian Defense Ministry officially released data showing 9,861 Russian troops have been killed, with 16,153 injured. That is getting close to the tally of the entire 11-year Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. That news was then rapidly deleted from their media, like a certain laptop. Aging Russia does not have the young men to waste on this war, and we already had rumors that boys from patriotic youth organisations may be drafted too: the ultra-nationalist babushky most in favor of the war are too old to fight it. As feared, this also ups the ante for Russia to escalate to heavier bombardment of civilian areas. Mariupol refused to surrender yesterday – what happens to it now remains to be seen, but it does not look good for its inhabitants.

Moreover, US President Biden has warned of imminent Russian cyber-attacks, and of the risk of a chemical attack – which Russia has itself warned that Ukraine will soon attempt, which others see as a false flag.

Yesterday was also absent the usual attempts to spin that ‘a peace deal is close’. Indeed, listening to an international relations expert yesterday, I was struck by the flimsiness of his arguments. A deal, he said, would involve Ukraine giving up Crimea and its east; not joining the EU or NATO, and getting security guarantees. Fine: but that overlooks that this sounds a lot like Russia winning; more so if sanctions are then removed; and yet if they aren’t, why should Russia stop, rather than escalating? Moreover, without the EU, who will rebuild Ukraine, and which way can it orientate itself economically? And who will give it security guarantees? Itself? That sounds like Ukraine winning! NATO? That sounds like NATO membership! Russia?! Basically, while everyone wants this to de-escalate, there are lots of geopolitical problems out there with apparently simple solutions –to the West– that have deep roots –planted by the West– and no easy solutions. Take the Middle East for example.

And as we shift our gaze from war to metacrisis, consider that with the EU now saying it is considering energy sanctions on Russia too, and a further Russian military escalation is likely to be the trigger, that nearby energy-rich region is going to be even more important going forwards.

Yet there Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi oil facilities again, and Riyadh make clear they aren’t responsible for any drop in oil output if this carries on; the US belatedly sent Patriot missiles to Saudi, after having previously removed them. In parallel, there is another stand-off over the Iran nuclear deal, Iran insisting its Revolutionary Guards Council must be taken off US terrorist watchlists. Although the US negotiating team has offered Tehran more than it asked for at all times according to leaks from both sides, and had proffered the IRGC U-turn on the premise Tehran make a promise of good behaviour(!), this may prove a red line for the White House. It would be hard to sell to this Congress, let alone the one that looms in November: and if it happens, then the Houthis will get even more money to fire more missiles at Saudi. Either way, oil supply does not look like it is going to pick up. And, obviously, energy prices hence are: Brent was up 7.1% on the day to $116 again.

The US also decided it needed escalation on another front – it sanctioned Chinese officials over human rights abuses related to Xinjiang and the treatment of Uighurs, an issue which seemed on the backburner. Secretary of State Blinken tweeted:

“Perpetrators of human rights abuses must continue to face consequences. The United States has taken action to impose visa restrictions on PRC officials for attempting to intimidate, harass, and repress dissidents and human rights defenders inside and outside of China.”

Quite clearly to some, this is a shot across the bows about Chinese support for Russia. Equally clearly to most, it will generate a furious Chinese backlashAnd this is as Russia warns it is close to severing all diplomatic ties with the US completelyIn short, our pre-war scenario C –messy global fragmentation– looks a step closer to potentially materialising.

President Biden underscored what is happening in this metacrisis in public, stating: “You know, we are, I believe, in an inflection point in the world economy. Not just the world economy, the world. It occurs every three or four generations. As one of the top military people said to me in a secure meeting the other day, 60 million people died between 1900 and 1946, and since then we’ve established a liberal world order and that hadn’t happened in a long while; and a lot of people died, but nowhere near the chaos… and now’s the time when things are shifting. There’s going to be a new world order out there. And we’ve got to lead it. We’ve got to unite the rest of the free world into it.”

The problem is, of course, that while the free world is increasingly united, most of the world isn’t free in that sense. Indeed, while we all congratulate ourselves on how ‘Ukraine has won the media war’, consider that this is not how it is playing out in swathes of Asia, Africa, or even Latin America. And unless the West intends to leave all of these economies to set up a new bloc without it, which the current scramble for energy shows is not possible, it needs to do better, or at least make a more substantive offer.

If this it to occur, it will scramble status quo markets, even if there are winners and losers. It won’t scramble the US dollar, contrary to popular misconception: the only way that is going to occur is if we see a true revolution in thinking in China, or everyone defaults on Eurodollar debt at once, blowing up the global system entirely. Yet a Western attempt at a martial and Marshall Plan for key EM would put pressure on those economies on the other side of a new, global ‘Berlin Wall’.

Of course, in the near term it would also massively disrupt Western supply chains, just as Covid and this war did/are. Don’t think we would not then see a deeper embrace of the kind of ‘markets, shmarkets’ approach being floated on energy prices (in the EU), control of energy firms (in the UK), and over nickel prices (on the LME – which just cancelled trades done on Monday again: who lost too much money this time?)

Yes, I’m talking about price controls, rationing, and barter, countertrade, and offsetting. Yes, I’m serious. No, traditional balance-sheet analysts are not considering this. For example, yesterday I did a TV slot, and the talking head ahead of me was talking at great length and great speed about Chinese tech stocks. The TV host was repeatedly trying to get him to answer the question of how one can assess value when the geopolitical and regulatory ground is shifting so fast. The response was the verbal equivalent of being smothered with a scented pillow – and totally avoiding that question. As I’ve joked before, if the only thing you don’t have is a hammer, nothing you ever see will look like a nail. Until your position is then nailed to the wall by someone who understands the tools currently in play.

Against this backdrop, what is a central bank to do? If you listened to Fed speakers, especially Powell, yesterday, you heard them suggest raising rates faster, perhaps going 50bp and not 25bp at some meetings, and removing QE even more aggressively. If you listened to the ECB’s Lagarde, you got a very different message.

A few key points to repeat in this regard.

The US yield curve continues to say the Fed is making a policy error: inversions are deepening, and more rate cuts are being priced in further down the line. Stocks are generally holding up on the view that this hawkishness is aberrative silliness that will soon give way to the usual QE and money on a plate for those who never have to worry about what’s on their plate, even as hundreds of millions literally risk having nothing on theirs.

Yet if we are seeing a struggle for a new world order, you can make a strong case that a sign of health, not weakness, would be higher interest rates in the country aiming to lead it. After all, as our rates strategy team has long concurred, zero and negative rates are a zombifying tactic that undermine real economic strength in favour of financialised nonsense that grows no wheat, produces no energy, digs no lithium or nickel, and makes no consumer goods. For all of the power of the US financial arsenal versus Russia, it will ultimately not matter if it does not have the real economy to back it up as things start to fracture, taking offshore supply chains with it, as in Covid. Powell alluded to supply chains yesterday without grasping their competitive geopolitical nature.

Ask yourself, wouldn’t a US entrepreneur look at a hypothetical 4% Fed Funds rate and think “That’s a signal to invest in something productive”? Wouldn’t a US bank be happier to lend, assuming an upwards sloping yield curve? As Walter Bagehot said during the period of a British led world order: “John Bull can stand many things, but he cannot stand 2%”, meaning the investing public demands a sensible floor to rates if they intend to invest –productively– at all. We can all see when we don’t have one, they just don’t.

Of course, that implies pain for the financialized part of the economy. Which is why the financialized part of the economy has such difficulty conceiving of it – or indeed of any of the changes I am describing. They are still ‘cheering’ Russia evading sanctions to be able to make bond payments, as Ukraine, being dissected by Russia, has to make its debt payments too. Who has the hammers and the nails there? Yet, the world is now shifting, and rapidly. What does it look like on the other side? More of the same? Really? How?

Yes, some say a hypothetical 4% Fed Funds rate would just get a stronger US dollar and the cry to offshore production again, matched with foreign capital inflows from their own trade surpluses with the US – and we are back to the new normal.

But not if the world order is being restructured. We are talking about sanctions, tariffs, price controls, rationing, and of barter, countertrade, and offsetting: don’t tell me capital controls can’t be part of that hypothetical package if that is what is required to maintain leadership of the free world.

Freedom isn’t free; and freedom isn’t free money.

Of course, none of this is a ‘trade for today’. But as the metacrisis develops, it is arguably the tail risk trade for the future.

7. OIL ISSUES

A must read on what might happen to the price of  oil as we head into the big April 2022 delivery month 

(zerohedge)

April 2020 But In Reverse: One Bank Warns We Are About To Witness A Historic Short Squeeze Eruption In Oil

MONDAY, MAR 21, 2022 – 07:20 PM

We have repeatedly warned that Cushing balances would be tight in coming months due to limited crude oil production growth and strong refinery and export demand…

… and now, the Ukraine conflict clearly presents the risk of even greater tightness as report after report from various bullish Wall Street banks warn. Indeed, as BofA’s commodities team writes in a must read note titled “Cushing’s Cushion Wears Thin” published today (available to professional subs), WTI timespreads soared to decade highs ($11.70 for WTI 1-3 spread) recently and have since settled down at still elevated levels, discouraging oil storage. As a result, inventories at Cushing hub have drawn roughly 13 million bbl ytd, reaching 24mn bbl last week, the lowest seasonal level in the shale era. Now, storage levels are likely near operational minimum levels, or “tank bottoms.”

According to BofA, given current backwardation levels, a good portion of these inventories are likely used for blending operations and as a backstop for pipeline flows. Thus, they may not be eligible for delivery against the WTI contract.

Making matter worse, as inventories trend near operational minimum levels, nearly every price signal is discouraging oil flows to Cushing and will likely limit resupply. To wit: Midland WTI is fetching a $1.50/bbl premium over Cushing, limiting northbound flows to Cushing. Meanwhile, Bakken-WTI spreads of $5/bbl suggest that Bakken barrels may be more likely to bypass Cushing and flow directly to the USGC market. Recent strength in WCS (Cushing) vs WTI spreads, coupled with rich Bakken and Niobrara differentials should also discourage blending to WTI spec.

Finally, WTI-Brent spreads hit multi-year lows of -$9.20/bbl recently and are currently trading near -$5/bbl, which should encourage higher, “potentially record” crude oil exports over the coming weeks.

While refinery turnarounds should offer Cushing some short term relief…

Refining turnarounds globally are expected to be light this spring, with outages averaging 4.3mn b/d during March and April, compared 6.8mn b/d on average for the same period during 2015-19. In the US, outages are expected to be even lighter (Exhibit 24), averaging about 500k b/d in March and April versus 1.3mn b/d during the same period in 2015-19 (Exhibit 25). However, refining outages north of Cushing (PADD 2, PADD 4, Alberta, and Saskatchewan), which should affect inbound flows to the hub, are expected to average 600k b/d in March and April versus about 475k b/d during the 2015- 19 (Exhibit 25). All else equal, these turnarounds suggests that more barrels will be making their way south, either to Cushing or to the USGC this month and next, which should help lift Cushing inventory levels over the near term.

… balances will likely still be tight post maintenance.

Historically, Cushing inventories have tracked WTI timespreads with a lag of about 2 months (Exhibit 26). While this relationship may appear linear during periods of normal inventory levels, timespreads should theoretically increase at a parabolic rate (more backwardation) as inventories fall towards tank bottoms and fall at a parabolic rate (more contango) as Cushing nears tank tops (Exhibit 27).

All this means that “front month WTI at risk of a melt-up in 1H22″, similar to what was observed on April 20, 2020 when WTI traded down to negative $40/bbl as there was no place to store the deliverable contract amid the global economic shutdown, and when holders of the front contract were willing to pay others to take the obligation of delivery (which is what sent the price negative). Only in the opposite direction.

As a reminder, unlike Brent, the WTI contract has a physical delivery mechanism, which forces convergence between the physical market and futures market every month. In April 2020, this convergence was on full display ahead of the May WTI contract expiry, as longs with no ability to take delivery were forced to liquidate their positions at negative prices. Now, BofA cautions, “the market setup has reversed.”

In other words, with inventories at very low levels there is likely a reduced ability to make delivery against the WTI contract. As a result of limited US supply growth over 1H22 and limited incentives to send barrels to Cushing, inventories will likely scrape  along at low levels.

Meanwhile, given the market is desperately short barrels in the near term –  and this ignores the record 1 billion barrels in oil futures that were sold and/or shorted in the past month

… BofA sees “increased risk of a short squeeze as WTI moves towards expiry each month” while also seeing risk that WTI strengthens relative to other North American grades to encourage more oil to flow to the hub.

In short, in a mirror image of the historic events in April 2020, which saw oil prices freefall to negative prices for the first time ever due to forced liquidations, in the coming weeks we may see the opposite: a historic meltup as shorts scramble to obtain product but can’t find it at any price.

The full report is available to pro subs in the usual place.

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/COVID/VACCINES/LOCKDOWNS

AUSTRALIA/

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.1007 DOWN .0010 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN 

USA/ YEN 120.76  UP  1.163 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3228 UP   0.0059

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 6.18 PTS OR 0.19%

 Hang Sang CLOSED UP 667.94PTS OR 3.15%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.82%   // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 667.94 PTS OR 3.15%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 6.18 PTS OR 0.19%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.82%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 396.88 PTS OR 1.48%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1927.50

silver:$25.07-

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 98.67  UP 17  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.29%  UP 5  in basis point(s) yield from YESTERDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.219%  UP 1 AND 1/10   BASIS POINTS from YESTERDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.42%// UP 3   in basis points yield from yesterday.

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 2.04 UP 4    points in basis points yield from yesterday./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 62 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +0.502% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.52% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1026  UP .0010    or 10 basis points

USA/Japan: 12075 UP 1.153 OR YEN DOWN 116  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3244 UP 25  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN 24 BASIS pts to 1.2613

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.3684  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.3760

TURKISH LIRA:  14.85  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.219

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 8  IN basis points from MONDAY at  2.376% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.584  UP 7 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 98.48 DOWN 2   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 23.60PTS OR 0.22%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 143.63 POINTS OR 1.00%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 67.13PTS OR 1.02% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 59.20PTS OR 0.71%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN UP 238.93 PTS OR 0.98%

WTI Oil price 109.58    12: EST

Brent Oil:  113.75 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:   103.62 UP  13.00 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.502

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.1027 UP  .0011   OR UP 11 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3260 UP  .0092 or UP 92 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 120.75 UP 1.160

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2580 DOWN .0008 (CDN dollar UP 8 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 111.30

Brent OIL:  115.34

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.382 UP 9 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.602  UP 8  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.82

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA///USA/ ROUBLE:  107.00  UP  35/100ROUBLES (ROUBLE DOWN 35/100 ROUBLES/USA )//

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 254.47 PTS OR 0.58%

NASDAQ 100 UP 278/24 PTS OR 1.94%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 22.86 DOWN 0.64 PTS OR 2.85%

GLD: 179.36 DOWN 1.37 PTS OR 0.76%

SLV/ 22.88 DOWN .40 PTS OR 1.72%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks Extend Historic Short-Squeeze Melt-Up As Recession & Rate-Cut Odds Rise

TUESDAY, MAR 22, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Another quiet macro day (and everyone shrugging off The Fed’s Bullard & Daly’s hawkish comments) gave the algos the opportunity to run some more stops, pushing the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq above key technical levels. S&P broke back above its 200DMA today and the rest of the majors held above their 50DMAs…

Nasdaq was the day’s big winner, and decoupled from the other majors around the EU close. This was the 5th day of gains in the last 6 days…

The historic short squeeze extended today with ‘most shorted’ stocks up 20% from pre-rate-hike lows last week (this is the most aggressive short squeeze since Jan 2021 – which actually marked the record high for the ‘most shorted’ index)…

Source: Bloomberg

And this is happening as rate-hike expectations continue to rise AND rate-cut expectations next year also accelerate (perhaps the horizon the market is focusing on)…

Source: Bloomberg

Simply put, the more aggressive the rate-hikes this year (8 more hikes now priced in including 50bps hikes in May and June), the more guaranteed a recession becomes, and the more aggressive rate-cuts next year are priced in (more than two rate-cuts).

Treasuries were dumped once again with the longer-end underperforming this time (2Y +5bps, 10Y +9bps). The short-end remains the big laggard on the week though (2Y and 5Y up 25bps this week)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 3M2Y curve is at its steepest since Lehman (Sept 2008)…

Source: Bloomberg

…and at the same time 3s10s, 5s10s, and 20s30s are all inverted and flashing recessionary signals…

Source: Bloomberg

And as rates rise, bonds are trading at their cheapest to stocks since Nov 2018 (right before stocks began to crater into Powell’s tightening plans and eventual flip-flop)…

Source: Bloomberg

Is TINA dead? Or does this simply mean that when QE restarts, stocks will be super cheap?

The dollar slipped back lower after overnight gains today…

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos rallied on the day with a big spike overnight lifting Ethereum back above $3000 and Bitcoin above $43000…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI drifted back below $110 ahead of tonight’s API-reported inventory data…

Gold also ended the day lower but well off the lows triggered after the US cash equity open…

Finally, investor pessimism has faded materially – the GS Risk Appetite Indicator (RAI) is nearly neutral again

So, forget Putin-Hitler, forget Powell-Volcker… just ‘look through’ the global geopolitical crises and ‘hope’ for the next round of QE and rate-cuts to rescue the world again… stagflation fears be damned!

END

I) /MORNING TRADING

END

AFTERNOON

END

II)USA data

end

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES


iiia) USA inflation//SHIPPING commentaries//LOG JAMS//

end

iiib) USA economic stories

As we have discussed:  this is a game changer:  The Saudi oil for yuan for gold will erode the dollar reserve (Petrodollar scheme)

Goldman Admits Saudi-China Oil-Trade Signals ‘Erosion’ Of Dollar Reserve Status

MONDAY, MAR 21, 2022 – 06:00 PM

Following The Wall Street Journal’s recent report that Saudi Arabia is considering pricing some of its oil sales to China in Yuan, the question of the dollar’s status as global reserve currency has bubbled back to ‘top of mind’ for many longer-term investors.

As Goldman Sachs’ Farouk Soussa notes in a report today, these steps are not entirely surprising: over time, currency choice tends to be driven in part by economic ties and partly by geopolitical alliances, and China has become a more important economic partner as its economy develops and imports more oil, while at the same time geopolitical developments perhaps demonstrate the attractiveness of a more diversified currency set.

There are still important barriers to making a large shift, but the petrodollar has been a key underpinning to the Dollar’s reserve status over the last 50 years, so developments in this sphere are important to watch.

China’s importance to Saudi Arabia as an export market has risen in parallel with the Kingdom’s dependence on Chinese imports and investment; but, as Goldman notes, the increased frequency of use of financial sanctions by the United States as a foreign policy tool is arguably creating an incentive for third countries to diversify away from a perceived over-reliance on Dollar-denominated trade.

Relations between Saudi and the United States have also been on a downward trajectory since the start of this century. A long series of policy differences (from the invasion of Iraq to the potentially imminent revival of the JCPOA with Iran) and diminished US foreign policy interests in the region are leading Riyadh to seek political and security alliances with other world powers, including the Chinese.

In our view, this reinforces the deepening economic ties already in evidence, and could potentially motivate a shift toward Yuan pricing of Chinese oil exports by the Saudis.

However, commodity pricing remains an important pillar of the Dollar’s global reserve status.  Most prominently, it ensures that most countries will need to invoice at least a portion of their trade in Dollars, which in turn incentivizes them to hold a portion of their reserves in Dollars as well.

But the potential shift from Saudi Arabia (and also Russia’s shift into CNY in 2018) demonstrates one way for China’s Yuan to become a more important international – or at least regional – currency (that is not to say it is getting anywhere close to reserve status).

So, what is the overall “state of play” of de-Dollarization?

Goldman points out that the Saudi-China discussions occur against a backdrop where a number of countries are already taking steps towards diversifying their reserve holdings, for a variety of reasons.

While Russia accounted for a large proportion of de-Dollarization in recent years, it is far from the only country that has shifted some holdings out of G3 currencies.

For example, together with shifting commodity demand, Latin American countries have added close to $30bn in CNY reserves over the last five years.

Even elsewhere in the Middle East, Israel has made some key diversification shifts, and added over $1bn of CNY reserves in February of this year alone.

But on the other hand, while the recent use of sanctions against Russia provides a potential motivation for some countries to think about changing their reserve accumulation practices, at the same time Russia’s experience demonstrates the limitations this can have in a still largely Dollar-denominated world.

Ultimately, there are many reasons why the Dollar maintains its role as the world’s leading international currency, and many reinforcing complementarities or “network effects” among the key variables. This structure will not change overnight.

But in the most ominous comments yet from any Wall Street bank, Goldman admits the latest move by Saudi Arabia and China is significant:

…political developments, especially military conflicts, can be important for currency markets, and we would see recent geopolitical events as negatively affecting the distribution of possible outcomes for the US Dollar over the medium term.

In essence, while there is currently no real alternative to the Dollar for capital market depth and global integration, and number of recent events fit with the type of behavior that could start to shift those dynamics, re-denominating a larger portion of commodity trade could be another important step in that process.

Finally, remember, as we have detailed numerous times over the years, ‘nothing lasts forever’ (especially global reserve currencies)…

… so what will replace the dollar? Gold (traditional), Bitcoin (novel), Yuan (all the downsides of fiat ‘inside money’ with no upsides), or as Zoltan Poszar detailed in his recent epochal note, a bullion/commodity-baset-backed ‘currency’?

end

iv)swamp stories

KING REPORT/SWAMP STORIES

Bonds and ESMs got hammered during Asian trading.  ESMs hit a low near the Chinese close (2 ET).  They commenced a plodding rally that went vertical when the NYSE opened.  ESMs soared 23 handles in 9 minutes!  Why the rush to buy on the NYSE open?  There was no news!
 
Bonds declined during Asian trading and fell further during morning trading in Europe.  When the US bond market opened at 8 ET, they commenced a tumbled.  The 30-year hit 2.49%; the 10-year hit 2.37%; and the 2-year hit 2.012%.  Despite the Fed’s 25bps rate hit, the Fed is over 175bps behind the curve.
 
Oil and gasoline soared early on Monday; but copper sank.  The dollar rallied a tad; gold fell modestly.     By 9:45 ET, Brent Oil was + 4.6%; WTI Oil was +5.25%; Gasoline was + 4%.
 
ESMs and stocks hit a peak at 9:40 ET.  In 12 minutes, ESMs then sank 21 handles.  The entire rally for the NYSE open was rescinded.  Did a ‘pump & dump’ occur, or was it just ill-advised trader buying?  Before the clock struck 10:00 ET, all major US indices, ex-the DJUA, were negative.
 
ESMs and stocks sank further on this: Russia tells U.S. ambassador that ties on verge of being severed (Due to The Big Guy’s insulting comments about Putin) – Reuters
 
Russia says Biden’s ‘war criminal’ claim has put relations ‘on the verge of rupture’
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/21/russia-tells-us-envoy-that-relations-are-on-the-verge-of-rupture.html
 
Oil, gasoline, and gold surged higher after the above headline hit.  Wheat went limit up.  Bonds retreated.  The 10-year hit 2.4%; the 2-year hit 2.022%.
 
@LizYoungStrat: 10-Yr Treasury yields are testing the ceiling (~2.25%) of their long-term trend channel. It’s happened before and still held, but inflation was lower then…
https://twitter.com/LizYoungStrat/status/1505937034820702212
 
Near 10:30 ET, reports said air raid sirens blared in almost every region of Ukraine as the country went under a nation-wide air raid alert.
 
@JackDetsch: Russia is shelling Ukraine’s cities in a “near-desperate” attempt to turn the war in their favor and gain leverage at the bargaining table: senior U.S. defense official.
 
@Schuldensuehner: Good Morning from Germany where inflation pressures intensify even before the war in Ukraine, which will push prices up a lot further. German PPI jumps 25.9% YoY in Feb. This was the highest increase ever since the start of the stats in 1949. PPI ex-energy rose 12.4% YoY.
https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1505843477082513410
 
After the first hour of NYSE trading, someone juiced ESMs.  They soared 30 handles by 11:23 ET.
 
@RJRCapital: 170,000 OTM AAPL call contracts for Friday’s expiry traded in the first 90 minutes today.
These coordinated (Manipulation) gamma squeezes just make things worse and the market less stable.
 
@TommyThornton 11:27 ET: Mega cap to the rescue.  AAPL has their guy doing the buyback with his elbow on the buy button again (Apple rallied 3 points from 10:30 ET until 11:37 ET)
 
Shouldn’t the SEC investigate the apparent inside info about the timing of corporate buybacks?
ESMs and Apple tumbled after Powell asserted “inflation is much too high” and stated, “If we conclude that it is appropriate to move more aggressively by razing the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at meeting or meeting, we will do.  And if we determine that we need to tighten beyond common measures of neutral and into a more restrictive stance, we will do that as well… the risk is rising that an extended period of high inflation could push longer-term expectations uncomfortably higher, which underscores the need for the Committee to move expeditiously as I have described.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/21/powell-says-inflation-is-much-too-high-and-the-fed-will-take-necessary-steps-to-address.html
 
Powell: Inflation Outlook Deteriorated Significantly Even Before Russian Invasion –WSJ
 
Powell also said the Fed’s balance sheet contraction would commence in coming meetings and last for three years.
 
By 13:23 ET, the 10-year hit 2.302%; the 30-year hit 2.52%; the 2-year hit 2.115%.  Energy commodities and gold stayed strong.  ESMs were 58.00 below their high of 4473.00.
 
@Schuldensuehner: OOPS! US 5s/30s yield spread hits narrowest since 2007. The 30y yield was as little as 18.455bps above the shorter-tenor rate at one point on Fed rate hike angst.
https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1505955191358689285
 
After the VIX Fix, ESMs surged higher.  There were beaucoup traders that got caught long, and they needed to markup stuff and induce patsies to absorb their positions.  Plus, The Big Guy was scheduled to read from his Teleprompter.
 
Biden warned that intel shows Russia could start cyber-attacks on US business.  The Big Guy and other US officials have been warning about Russian cyber-attacks for at least three weeks.
 
@bennyjohnson: Biden stares blankly at reporters asking questions as Hunter Biden laptop VERIFIED, White House staff abruptly cuts audio then video  https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1505976785724448771
 
When Biden finished reading, ESMs and stocks sank.  Was it more ill-conceived buying or something else?  Bonds dropped to new lows: The 30-year hit 2.58%; the 2-year hit 2.126%; the 10-year hits 2.31%.  WTI oil (+7.41%) hit a new high.  Gasoline was +4.5%.  The dollar and gold rallied modestly.
 
The last-hour rally commenced on schedule; but it halted at 15:33 ET.  With 10 minutes remaining, some juiced ESMs into the close.  Someone desperately wants to push ESMs and stocks higher.
 
Based on the 2-year to Fed Funds relationship, the Fed is more behind the curve now that they were before they hiked Fed Funds by 25bps.  The 70’s conclusively proved that once the Fed is behind the inflation curve, only profound action works.  Baby steps against inflation are counterproductiv

@MrKovalenko: A former internal affairs minister of Ukraine @AvakovArsen shared the intercepted Russian military summary for March 18: Rus. Army troops killed 12,814. Private company Liga (former Vagner) troops killed 4,451. Total number of service members killed at war in Ukraine: 17,265.
 
U.S. Sending Soviet Air Defense Systems It Secretly Acquired to Ukraine
The Pentagon over the years has acquired Soviet equipment as part of a clandestine program, and now such weapons are going to Ukraine
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sending-soviet-air-defense-systems-it-secretly-acquired-to-ukraine-11647878422
 
WaPo: How Russia’s aggression in Ukraine in 2014 and 2015 is shaping Biden’s actions today
Biden, as Obama’s point man on Ukraine, wanted to ship more lethal weapons to the country but was overruled by his boss  https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/21/biden-crimea-russia-ukraine/
 
Why was The Big Guy eager to aggressively arm Ukraine in 2014 & 2015 but not when he became president?  Is he not making strategic decisions now?  No ‘10% for The Big Guy’? 
 
Biden goes for bike ride at the beach as Ukraine president warns of ‘third world war’
Biden’s beach outing comes as geopolitical tensions rise amid the Russian onslaught against Ukraine
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-goes-for-bike-ride-at-the-beach-as-ukraine-president-warns-of-third-world-war
 
Psaki says ‘verbal condemnation’ of Russia from China is ‘vital’
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/psaki-says-verbal-condemnation-of-russia-from-china-is-vital/ar-AAVkXAh
 
Secretary of State Blinken (@SecBlinken) after the close: Perpetrators of human rights abuses must continue to face consequences. The United States has taken action to impose visa restrictions on PRC officials for attempting to intimidate, harass, and repress dissidents and human rights defenders inside and outside of China(How will China react to the escalation of the economic war?)
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2022-03-21/us-expands-travel-ban-chinese-officials-persecution-5427174.html
 
Today – Someone desperately wants to push ESMs and stocks higher. They will try to do so again today and affect a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside – despite the horrid geopolitical environment and the Fed’s increasingly hawkish rhetoric.
 
ESMs are -9.50 at 20:20 ET on the new China sanctions.  Bonds are + 3/32; oil is +2.08.
 
Expected economic data: March Richmond Fed Mfg Index 2; Ny Fed’s Wuerffel 9:10 ET on Post-LIBOR World, NY Fed Pres Williams 10:35 ET
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4428; 100-day MA: 4550; 150-day MA: 4516; 200-day MA: 4472
DJIA 50-day MA: 34,504; 100-day MA: 35,152; 150-day MA: 35,071; 200-day MA 34,974
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4153.02 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4547.45 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4229.95 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4425.44 triggers a sell signal
 
Reportedly, Italy seized a ginormous yacht that belongs to Putin.
 
@RNCResearch: KAMALA HARRIS: “The significance of the passage of time, right? The significance of the passage of time. So when you think about it, there is great significance to the passage of time…there is such great significance to the passage of time.”  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1505964846172491780
 
@Crimealytics: The FBI reported today that they will not be releasing quarterly crime estimates for any quarter of 2021 because not enough agencies reported data to the FBI.


END

Let us close with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter interviewing
 

Well that is all for today. I will see you WEDNESDAY night

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