APRIL 7//RUBLE BREAKS 80 TO 79.74 AND THAT PROPELS GOLD AND SILVER: GOLD ROSE $13.40 TO $1933.90//SILVER ADVANCES 27 CENTS TO $24.61//GOLD STANDING AT THE COMEX: 80.002 TONNES/SILVER OZ STANDING 4.995 MILLION OZ//COVID UPDATES/ UKRAINE VS RUSSIA VS WEST UPDATES/// IMPORTANT READING MATERIAL: VON GREYERZ//USA’S LARGEST FARM CO-OPERATIVE STATES FARMING WILL UNDERGO CATASTROPHE BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF FERTILZER//SHANGHAI CONTINUES WITH ITS LOCKDOWNS CREATING HAVOC FOR ITS CITIZENS: LOCKDOWNS CAUSING A CONGESION FOR SEMICONDUCTORS IN CHINA//CHINA BEGINS TO PURCHASE OIL AND COAL WITH YUAN AND THUS SETTING UP BRETTON WOODS III/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

April 7, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

april7, 2022 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD;  $1933.90 UP $13.40

SILVER: $24.61 UP $0.27

ACCESS MARKET: GOLD $1931.40

SILVER: $24.60

Bitcoin morning price:  $43.977 UP 306 

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $43,636 up 35

Platinum price: closing UP $11.15 to $966.10

Palladium price; closing UP 30.35  at $2197.60

END

EXCHANGE: JPMorgan stopped/total issued

end

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comex notices/

: JPMorgan stopped/total issued  406/2020

EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: APRIL 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,918.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/06/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 04/08/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


072 C GOLDMAN 111
072 H GOLDMAN 5
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 20
132 C SG AMERICAS 13
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 58
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 74
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 181
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 128
661 C JP MORGAN 1910 618
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 6
709 C BARCLAYS 110 406
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 5
737 C ADVANTAGE 2
800 C MAREX SPEC 1
880 H CITIGROUP 387
905 C ADM 5


TOTAL: 2,020 2,020
MONTH TO DATE: 23,815



NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  APRIL. CONTRACT 2020 NOTICE(S) FOR 202,000 OZ  (6.283  TONNES)

total notices so far:  23,815 contracts for 2,381,500 oz (74.074 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 

136 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  680,000   OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month  856  :  for 4,280,000  oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

END

GLD

WITH GOLD UO $13.40

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.68 TONNES FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.30 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 27 CENTS

AT THE SLV// A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 1.386 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 566.392 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED  893 CONTRACTS TO 147,632   AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG LOSS IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR SMALL $0.09 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY.  OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.09) BUT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS  AS WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 362 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4.305 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING: 4.995 MILLION OZ//  V)    STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: 


THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS  : —-2348 (absolutely garbage!!)

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS  APRIL. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL: 

TOTAL CONTACTS for 5 days, total 2771  contracts:  13.855 million oz  OR 2.75MILLION OZ PER DAY. (430 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 2771 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 13.855 MILLION OZ 

.

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 13.855 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG  SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 893 DESPITE OUR $0.09 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1255 CONTRACTS( 1255 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS    THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR. OF 4.305 MILLION  OZ  FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP//NEW STANDING: 4.995 MILLION OZ///  .. WE HAD AN SMALL SIZED GAIN 362 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 1.8100 MILLION  OZ DESPITE THE  LOSS IN PRICE. 

 WE HAD 136 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 680,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 1691 CONTRACTS  TO 562,357 AND  CLOSER TO NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:   2626 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

.

THE SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF $4.10//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY /.AS IN SILVER WE MUST  HAD  HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR SMALL SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION   

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL AT 78.33 TONNES 

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF   $4.10 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD AN FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2800  OI CONTRACTS (8.709 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED  1109 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 562,357.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2800, WITH 1691 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1109 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5426 CONTRACTS OR 16.877 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1109) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (1691,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2800 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 78.33 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4100 OZ E.F.P JUMP TO LONDON//NEW STANDING 80.012 TONNES///  3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ///. ,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX  OI. GAIN 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

APRIL

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :

13,492 CONTRACTS OR 1,349,200 OR 41.966  TONNES 5 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2698 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 41.966TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  41.966/3550 x 100% TONNES  1.18% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  41.966 TONNES 

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAY.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 893 CONTRACTS TO 147,632  AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  4 1/2 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 1255 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY 1255  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1255 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 1455 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1255 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 1.81 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACT FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1.810 MILLION  OZ, 

OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS  $0.09 IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 46.73 PTS OR 1.42% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 461.73 PTS OR 1.69%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 461.73 PTS OR 1.69%        //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.69%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.3620    /Oil DOWN TO 98.44 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 103.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED EXCEPT LONDON        //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3620 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3672: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER//

A)NORTH KOREA/

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 1691 CONTRACTS TO 562,357  AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS GOOD COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $4.10 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP (1109 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE   ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1109 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 JUNE :1109 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1109 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED  TOTAL OF 2800 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1109 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 1691  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF GOLD $4.10

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL   (80.012),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 80.012

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $4.10) AND  BUT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAVE  REGISTERED A GOOD SIZED GAIN  OF 8.709 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL (80.012 TONNES)…

WE HAD — 2348  CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2800 CONTRACTS OR 280,000 OZ OR 8.709 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 123,800 ///poor

Confirmed volume yesterday: 161,774 contracts  poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR APRIL ’22 COMEX GOLD //APRIL 7

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz2799.69 oz
BRINKS
84 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz38,388.294  OZ
Manfra 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz106,839.704 oz
HSBC
No of oz served (contracts) today2020  notice(s)
202,000 OZ
6.283 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)1908 contracts 190,800 oz
5.9346 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month23,815 notices
2,381,500 OZ
74.074TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

For today:

dealer deposits  1

i)Into Manfra:  38,388.294.oz

total dealer deposit 38,388.294 oz//

No dealer withdrawals

1 customer deposits

i) Into HSBC  106,839.704  oz

total customer deposit: 106,839.704   oz //

1 customer withdrawal

ii) Out of Brinks:  2700,690 oz 84 kilobars

total withdrawals:  2700.6900     oz  

ADJUSTMENTS:   customer to dealer

ii) HSBC  16,011.198 oz

dealer to customer:

i) Brinks: 146,222.748 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL.

For the front month of APRIL we have an  oi of 3928 contracts having LOST  213.

We had 171 notices filed yesterday so we LOST 42 contracts or 4,200 oz will NOT stand for delivery at the comex

May saw a LOSS of 452 contracts to stand at 4,548

June saw a GAIN of 211 contracts UP to 471,000 contracts

We had 2020 notice(s) filed today for 202,000  oz FOR THE APRIL 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 1910 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 2020 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 406 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 111  notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2021. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (23,815) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (APRIL 3929  CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today  2020 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,572,300 OZ  OR 80.009 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of APRIL. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:

No of notices filed so far (23,815) x 100 oz+   (3929)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (2020} x 100 oz} which equals 2,572,300 oz standing OR 80.009 TONNES in this   active delivery month of APRIL.

We LOST 4100 oz as an E.F.P. jump to London  as our banker friends could not find any gold here today..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  80.012 TONNES  (A WHOPPER FOR AN APRIL ( ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

191,133,764.7, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

99,258.893 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

243,923.704, oz  JPM No 2  7.58 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged  Brinks/27,96 TONNES

International Delaware::  0

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold:  1,487,476.805 oz                                     46.27 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIG GOLD AT THE COMEX: 35,388.294  OZ (1100,73 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 18,254,596.165 OZ (567.80 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,655,266.657 OZ  (549.15 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 16,167,790.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)  502,886 tonnes

END

APRIL 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//APRIL 7

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory861,723.212  oz
Brinks
CNT
Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil
OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventorynil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)136CONTRACT(S)
680,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)143 contracts 
(715,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)856 contracts 
(4,280,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposits into the dealer

total dealer deposits:  nil       oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 2 deposits into the customer account

i) Into Brinks  1767.57 oz

ii) Into Delaware: 7985.152

total deposit:  9752.7220oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 177,110 million oz/336.920 million =52.56% of comex 

i) Comex withdrawals: 2

i) Out of JPM  610,366.260 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 3844,620 oz

total withdrawal 614,210.800   oz

1 adjustments: customer to dealer

jpmorgan; 480,110.960 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 86.249 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 336.920 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF APRIL OI:  279, HAVING LOST 8 CONTRACTS FROM WEDNESDAY.  We had 6 notices filed yesterday,

so we LOST 2 contracts or an additional 10,000 oz will NOT stand on this side of the pond

MAY HAD A LOSS OF 3138 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 97,058 contracts

JUNE HAD A GAIN OF 150 TO STAND AT 634

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 136 for 680,000 oz

Comex volumes: 62,184// est. volume today//  poor/

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 53,554 contracts ( extremely poor )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  856 x 5,000 oz = 4,280,000oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (279) and the number of notices served upon today 6136x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the APRIL./2021 contract month: 856 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (279)  – number of notices served upon today (856) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month equates 4,995,000 oz. .

We LOST 2 contracts or 10,000 oz will NOT stand on this side of the pond as these guys were EFP’d to London.

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.30 TONNES

APRIL 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.68 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.30 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.98 TONNES

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $.70//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.73 TONNES

APRIL 1///WITH GOLD DOWN $19.00 : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.73 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD UP $13.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD FROM MONDAY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES FROM THE GLD:INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.44

MARCH 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.18 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.60 : A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.18 TONNES

MARCH 24/WITH GOLD UP $24.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.66 TONNES

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $15.75//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1083.60 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSITED INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1083.60 TONES

MARCH 21//WITH GOLD UP $.25 : A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.00 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.44 TONES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.55 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.44 TONES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $33.50: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.61 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.44 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.50//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.83 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.16 TONNES


MARCH 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $22.75, HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//STRANGE: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.16 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.54 TONNES

MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.55: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.06 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.28 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.85//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.64 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.34 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $46.10: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 8.42 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.70 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.28 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.22 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.95: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.84 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.22 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.80//A MONSTER CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1042.38 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $42.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD UP $17.35//A HUGE  CHANGE AT THE GLD: 5.23 TONNES INTO THE GLD// IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REST AT 1029.32 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1024.09 TONNES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1087.30 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

APRIL 7/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS : A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.386 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESETS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 6.326 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY REST AT 564.966 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.302 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 558.647 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.171 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.345 MILLION OZ

MARCH 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.847 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 554.167 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 552.320 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.092 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 552.320 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 21/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.217 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/ WITH SILVER UP 72 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.049 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLVV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 548.071 MILLION OZ

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 56 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 462,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.560 MLLION O

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.022 MILLION OZ

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY; STRANGE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.125 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.022 MILLIONOZ

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.174 MILLION OZ OF FAKE SILVER.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 88 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.217 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS A 548.071 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.32 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 198,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP $1.13 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.052 MILLION OZ//

FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 546.052 MILLION OZ//

FEB 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.510 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 546.052 MILLION OZ/

FEB 24/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ

FEB 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 551.597 MILLION OZ//

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 566.352 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

A Dark Day In Economic History; Could It Happen Again?

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 07:40 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Yesterday (April 5) was the anniversary of a dark day in US economic history.

On April 5, 1933, President Franklin D. Roosevelt issued EO-6102. It was the beginning of the end for the gold standard.

Many people refer to EO-6102 as a gold confiscation order. But confiscation is probably not the best word for what happened in practice.

In effect, the executive order criminalized owning gold. People caught with more than small amounts of gold could face a fine of $10,000 or 10 years in prison for hoarding the yellow metal. The order required private citizens, partnerships, associations and corporations to turn in all but small amounts of gold to the Federal Reserve at an exchange rate of $20.67 per ounce.

In effect, EO 6102 nationalized gold. But in practice, this did not lead to gold confiscation in the true sense of the word.

Americans turned in gold to the government, but they did so voluntarily as an act of patriotism. And the government gave people dollars in return for their gold. The feds never made any concerted effort to confiscate gold by force. They never went door to door looking for gold. And few were prosecuted under the law. Most of the prosecutions involved people caught trying to sell gold in sting operations.

Today, you’ll sometimes hear people warn against owning gold because the government can just confiscate it again. Some numismatic coin dealers and precious metals pundits also use Roosevelt’s moves in 1933 to instill fear and bolster the sale of what they claim are “confiscation-free” products.

Of course, it is theoretically possible for the government to confiscate gold. It’s also theoretically possible for the government to confiscate cell phones. That doesn’t mean it will.

Even if you view the Roosevelt executive order as a warning sign, it’s important to understand the political and economic dynamics are much different today than they were in 1933. The world was on a gold standard and the economy was in a deep recession. The nationalization of gold was all about controlling the monetary system.

And it worked.

Today, the Federal Reserve has complete authority to expand the money supply and control interest rates. This is done with or without gold reserves. In other words, the government doesn’t need your gold.

There are numerous reasons to believe gold confiscation is highly unlikely. We outline them all in our new report, “Confiscation Con: Will the Government Take Away Your Gold?” The report outlines six facts you need to know before you get caught up in government gold confiscation hysteria.

You can download the free report HERE.

END

Peter Schiff: The People At The Fed Aren’t Hawks; They’re Chickenhawks

THURSDAY, APR 07, 2022 – 08:46 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard sounded a hawkish tone on Tuesday, promising to ramp up the inflation fight. As Peter Schiff put it in his podcast, the uber-dove started talking like a super-hawk. But the Fed members aren’t really going to be able to follow through on this inflation fight. In reality, they aren’t hawks. They’re chickenhawks.

Brainard said the Fed would raise rates methodically and shrink its balance sheet at a “considerably” more rapid pace than it did during the previous cycle.

“Given that the recovery has been considerably stronger and faster than in the previous cycle, I expect the balance sheet to shrink considerably more rapidly than in the previous recovery, with significantly larger caps and a much shorter period to phase in the maximum caps compared with 2017–19,” she said.

Brainard’s comments were reminiscent of Jerome Powell’s tough talk the week following the Fed’s first interest rate hike in the so-called fight against inflation.

Peter said there is nothing hawkish about anybody at the Fed, but many people on the Federal Reserve board are pretending to be hawkish.

They can’t actually be hawks, so, they’re chickenhawks. But they don’t want to acknowledge the pretense, so they have to put on a good show. The markets don’t really understand that these guys are bluffing, and so when they talk tough, the markets pay attention.”

Brainard’s tough talk spooked the bond market. There was intense selling and yields spiked. Stocks also sold off. But Peter said there is even more selling to come.

Yields are still much too low given the reality of A. how bad inflation already is and B. how much higher the Fed is going to have to raise interest rates to actually do something about inflation.”

Brainard threw down the gauntlet by quoting former Fed chair Paul Volker. As you may remember, Volker pushed interest rates to 20% in the early 80s to rein in inflation. Brainard basically said that runaway inflation is now the greatest threat to the economy and ultimately to employment. If the Fed wants to maximize employment, it has to ensure to there isn’t runaway inflation. Of course, even admitting the possibility of runaway inflation is a very dangerous reality for bond investors to face.

Brainard said, “inflation is much too high and subject to upside risks.”

She didn’t just say inflation is ‘too high.’ She said ‘it’s much too high.’ And of course, that is an understatement because it is really much too high. But to hear Brainard admit that it’s much too high is significant. And then she also said that the risks are to the upside. Not only is it much too high, the risk is that it’s going to get even higher. So, that is a big admission on the part of the vice-chair nominee.”

But it was the commitment to shrink the balance sheet “rapidly” that really spooked the markets. As Peter put it, those are fighting words. But is there really any fight in the Fed?

If the Fed were as committed to fighting inflation as Brainard is pretending they are, why wait until May? This is just the beginning of April. Why wait another month, month-and-a-half? Start shrinking the balance sheet right now. If the Fed was committed to fighting the ‘much too high’ inflation, why did they continue to grow their balance sheet after they acknowledged that inflation wasn’t transitory? In fact, if the Fed really were serious about fighting inflation, interest rates wouldn’t still be at one-quarter of one percent.”

Now the Fed is talking about 50 basis point rate hikes in upcoming meetings. But it is so far behind the inflation curve; it should be raising rates right now – not at some point in the future.

At the rate inflation is accelerating, the Fed risks falling further and further behind the curve while it’s waiting to fight this inflation monster that it already acknowledges is too big. So, start fighting it now. Raise rates aggressively right now. Start shrinking your balance sheet right now. Of course, the Fed is not doing any of that. The Fed just wants to talk about doing that because it hopes it can talk about it instead of actually doing it because it really can’t.”

That doesn’t mean the central bank won’t get the process started.

They may very well have to follow through initially with some 50 basis point rate hikes. They may have to start shrinking their balance sheet. But soon after they start, they’re going to stop. The more aggressive the Fed gets in this inflation fight, either just talking about it or actually doing it, the quicker that fight is going to end. Because they’re not going to win the fight against inflation. Inflation is not going down. It’s the economy that’s going down. It’s the market that’s going to go down. And the minute that happens, well, the Fed is going to abandon its pretend inflation fight and have a whole new fight to try to prop up the stock market and prop up the economy.”

The policymakers at the Fed insist the economy is strong enough to handle the tightening monetary policy. But Peter said the economy is not stronger than it was during the post-2008 recovery.

It’s just a bigger bubble. It only appears stronger to the Fed that doesn’t understand that this artificial strength is purely a function of all this monetary heroin that the Fed has injected into the economy. Now they’re threatening to remove it, and they think somehow the economy is going to stay high as a kite if they take away the drugs that are the reason it’s high. It won’t happen.”

In this podcast, Peter also talks about why the Fed can’t “rapidly” reduce its balance sheet and how sanctions created a bottom and a bull market for the ruble.

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James  RICKARDS/

Von Greyerz: “There Is Going To Be A New World Disorder”

THURSDAY, APR 07, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

“There is gonna be a new world order out there and we’ve gotta lead it!

And we gotta unite the rest of the world in doing it!”

That is what Biden proclaimed in a recent speech.

But since Biden has a tendency to get his speeches wrong, what he meant to say was:

“There is gonna be a new world DIS-order out there and we’ve gotta lead it!

Sadly, as the world has heard in many speeches by the US president, he hasn’t got a clue that his “empire” is collapsing around him.

But regrettably for Biden, the US isn’t an empire at all but a bankrupt nation without leadership. But even worse, the US has just in a final act of desperation not just shot itself in the foot but in the head.

CONSEQUENCES

Very few, if any, of today’s world leaders understand the consequences of their actions and clearly not Biden.

As the world is experiencing the end of an economic era, we are getting the leaders that we deserve and thus the appropriate ones to take the world to Armageddon.

So the world is now entering the final battle, a battle with totally incompetent heads of state which will lead to everyone losing.

The route to Armageddon will be disastrous for the world. Distressed leaders will take calamitous actions, exacerbating not only their own country’s problem, but also the rest of the world’s.

And that is exactly what we are seeing now with the worst possible concoction of debt deficits, currency debasement and decadence. The consequences were of course always predictable based on history. But no leader in the current era is a real student of history. And that is why the world is in such a mess.

HYPERINFLATION FOLLOWED BY A DEFLATIONARY DEPRESSION

I have in many articles outlined the course of events that I see from here – inflation, hyperinflation, debt collapse, asset collapse, leading to economic misery and eventually to a deflationary depression. “All Hell Will Break Loose for Humanity” as I wrote in a recent article.

There will be continued migration, but probably to a lesser extent since there will be no promised lands which will offer the migrants a better life. There will be isolationism and many countries will try to close their borders.

Sadly there will also be wars, cyber, civil and even major military wars. Mankind has never for any longer period stayed away from wars and especially not in periods of economic depression and high debts. Wars are such a wonderful excuse for poor leaders both to print more money and as a blame for the misery that the people suffer.

Western dominated media and propaganda are naturally blaming Putin for the war. And many leaders including Biden want him gone.

WARS HAVE BUILT THE WORLD

Wars are of course terrible whoever starts them but as I just said, the history of the world is very much based on wars and empire building whether we talk about Persian, Roman, Han, Mongol, Ottoman, Spanish, Russian, or British empires.

Many of these empires have been revered for what they achieved and still are today whilst some like the Mongol left very little positive traces for posterity.

The British Empire for example was remarkable. A small island created the biggest empire in history lasting for over 300 years and covering 26% of the world. The cultural and language influence is still significant.

Very few voices are heard today requiring that the kings or emperors of those eras to be convicted for war crimes posthumously.

The US never created an empire but unprovoked attacked countries like Vietnam, Iraq, Libya and Syria. Over 300,000 civilians have been killed in these wars led by the US.

Whilst virtually the whole Western world considers Putin to be a war criminal, we have not heard similar attacks on the US, UK or French leaders who were involved in the above recent wars.

Without intending to take sides, why should we have different rules or laws for different war criminals? There is clearly not a level playing field.

CORNERING A RUSSIAN BEAR HAS CONSEQUENCES

Coming back to consequences, any intelligent Western leader could have predicted Russia’s recent actions since the Maidan Revolution in Ukraine in 2014. This was when a US and Western led coup ousted the elected Ukrainian leader and government and installed a Western friendly leadership.

This coup, combined with new Nato members surrounding Russia, was such a clear threat to Russia that Putin’s reaction was obvious. Cornering a Russian bear is very dangerous.

A strong Western leader and Statesman would have foreseen this and taken up negotiations with Russia. But Western leaders totally ignored all the warnings from Putin and Russia and that is why the world is not just in a mess but in a situation that is geopolitically very dangerous.

Some observers argue that the current situation has been engineered by US Neocons in order to start a conflict/war with Russia.

SANCTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES

The Roman Empire prospered for centuries due to free trade within and outside. But to sanction a country like Russia which has the world’s greatest natural resources to the extent of $75 trillion is total madness. Even worse when this sanctioned country supplies the energy of almost half of Europe, this is not just shooting yourself in the foot but in the head. See my article “A Global Monetary Inferno of Nuclear proportions”.

This will not just lead to energy and food shortages in the West but also a massive decline in world trade as well as GDP.

The CEO of BASF, the world’s largest chemical producer, said recently:

“Cutting off energy from Russia will spiral Germany into its most “catastrophic economic crisis going back to the end of WWII!”

But this should not come as a surprise for students of history. At the end of major economic cycles, countries get the abysmal leaders they deserve and these leaders will show a total lack of both intelligence and statesmanship. So sadly there is not even one leader who is capable of negotiating with Putin.

As a matter of fact, the US doesn’t seem to have a leader at all. And Germany’s new leader Scholz had hardly got his feet under the table before he was landed with the small problem that his country gets 55% of its natural gas from its enemy Russia. How inconvenient.

Germany clearly never learnt the expression “Don’t bite off the hand that feeds you”.

Both Britain’s Boris “Partygate” Johnson and France’s “Manu” Macron can count themselves lucky that the war took the attention away from their domestic problems.

THE US FINANCIAL EMPIRE ON THE ROAD TO PERDITION

The US used to be a financial empire but sadly now the country is on the road to perdition.

As I have pointed out many times, with the following abysmal figures the US can neither be an economic nor a moral leader of the world:

  • Federal debt & deficit growing every year since 1930 (with 4 minor exceptions)
  • Since 1971 Federal debt is up 60X from $500billion to $30 trillion
  • Total country debt up 53X since 1971 to $90 trillion with GDP up only 22X
  • Balance of payment in deficit since early 1970s

It is really astounding that the rest of the world accepts being dictated to by a country that is way past its sell-by date and can only generate false growth by printing endless amounts of worthless money. Before the 1970s the US had a strong economy with a respected currency. But since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971, the US has been on a slippery slope with debt exploding and the currency collapsing.

As the chart below shows, the dollar has lost 88% in real terms (gold) since 1999 and 98% since 1971 (not shown).

The fall to ZERO is guaranteed since all currencies, without exception, have become extinct throughout history.

But have we ever heard a central bank head or a president telling their people that the currency is going to become worthless due to their reckless actions?

No, of course not. Firstly they don’t understand or study history and secondly no elected politician can ever tell the truth because if they did, they would never be elected.

Just remember “Tricky Dick” Nixon:

Clearly, Nixon had no understanding what happens to money when debt backs the currency rather than gold. Or did he just lie as he had the custom of doing?

Regardless, he orchestrated a dollar fall (off the Matterhorn as illustrated above) of 98% with the remaining couple of percent loss down to a 100% happening in the next few years.

Biden has with his current disastrous actions created the perfect climate for achieving the final 2% fall of the dollar. But remember that is a 100% fall from here.

FREEZING ASSETS HAS CONSEQUENCES

By demonstrating to world central banks that the US can freeze any country’s foreign exchange reserves held outside their country, the world financial system and central bankers have learnt a lesson that will permanently change the way they do business.

No sane country will ever hold their reserves in US dollars or other currencies at a bank that the US government can directly or indirectly control.

Nor will countries trust the Swift system which the US can unilaterally manipulate.

The flight from the US dollar will not happen overnight but it will be more rapid than anyone can imagine.

No judicious central bank chief will ever consider handing their forex reserves to the US, a bankrupt nation, with a collapsing currency which at a whim can confiscate other countries’ reserves.

But not only that, who would ever put their money into US treasuries. Investors would not only lose their total investment on the falling value of the dollar but also on the US as a dodgy debtor which could easily default by debasing the currency to ZERO or extinguish the debt.

Russia saw this coming already some years ago and thus liquidated all their US treasuries. Instead they wisely bought gold.

US debt is now entering the Pass The Parcel Game with NO investor wanting to be left holding the parcel.

Consequences our US friends, Consequences! Do you now see that your government has not just shot yourself in the foot but has inflicted your country with a lethal head wound.

The collateral damage will clearly lead to a distrust not only in the US but in all governments and all currencies. Globalism is now turning into isolationism.

AND THE OBVIOUS CONSEQUENCE OF THAT WILL BE A FLIGHT TO COMMODITIES AND ESPECIALLY PHYSICAL GOLD AND SILVER HELD IN A VERY SAFE PLACE.

-END

-END-

3.  Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

This is huge!! Fascinating!! It has been revealed that Australia’s leased gold never leaves the Bank if England. Thus it is a mere accounting entry and the only conclusion is that suggests infinite amounts of imaginary gold can be leased without any consequence. Thus it is quite easy to suppress gold prices in the futures and derivative markets. The Bank of England is running a racket

(Shane Wright/Sydney Morning Herald)

Australia’s central bank will audit its gold reserves at the Bank of England

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-04-06 17:32Section: Daily Dispatches

Note toward the end of this report the assertion that Australia’s leased gold never leaves the Bank of England’s vault. That makes the leasing a mere accounting entry and suggests that infinite amounts of imaginary gold can be leased without any consequence but the suppression of gold’s price in the futures and derivatives markets. Since the Bank of England is the custodian for most of the gold purportedly leased, the bank is running a racket — but one that mainstream financial news organizations (and of course the World Gold Council) must never look into.

* * *

A Golden Audit — Reserve Bank of Australia to Check on Its $6 Billion in Bullion

By Shane Wright
Sydney Morning Herald
Wednesday, April 6, 2022

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-golden-audit-rba-to-check-on-its-6-billion-in-bullion-20220406-p5abf3.html

A senior Reserve Bank official has been given one of the nation’s most intriguing jobs — being sent to London to check the bank’s 80-tonne store of gold is still sitting in vaults beneath the Bank of England.

RBA assistant governor Christopher Kent on Wednesday revealed the official was about to “hop on a plane” to check over the holding of about 6400 bars of the precious metal that is worth more than $6 billion.

The Bank of England holds a large proportion of the world’s gold as it is the centre of the world gold trade. The RBA’s 6400 bars sit alongside another 400,000 that are located in special vaults that have been in use for centuries.

Under questioning from LNP senator Gerard Rennick, Dr Kent said the official sent to London would conduct an audit of about 10 per cent of the RBA’s holdings.

“It’s quite an intensive process. It’s quite well considered in terms of selecting the gold bars,” he said.

The Bank of England will be asked to produce some of the bars, but the RBA will not giving the bank a head’s up as to which bars it wants to see. The audit includes checking serial numbers to ensure they match what the RBA is supposed to hold.

About 10 per cent of Australia’s holding will be checked in the audit. Dr Kent noted this was at the upper level for a Bank of England gold audit.

The Bank of England has to make good any “lost” gold if the audit reveals less than the full 80 tonnes.

The Reserve physically audits its London gold holdings about every six years.

Former deputy Reserve Bank governor Guy Debelle noted two years ago that the gold was rarely moved due to the threat of losing small flakes of the metal.

But Senator Rennick said he had been contacted by several people saying it was untrue that gold “flaked.”

In the 2020-21 financial year, the RBA made $1.3 million through lending its gold holdings. While the metal was loaned, it never leaves the Bank of England vaults. At the end of last financial year, the RBA had outstanding gold loans of 6 tonnes worth $500 million.

end

END

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

Russia’s central bank says it will stop buying gold at a fixed price

Economy4 hours ago (Apr 07, 2022 16:47)

2

Russia's central bank says it will stop buying gold at a fixed price© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Employees process ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold at the Krastsvetmet non-ferrous metals plant, one of the world’s largest producers in the precious metals industry, in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia November 22, 2018. REUTERS/

(Reuters) – Russia’s central bank said on Thursday that due to a “significant change in market conditions” it would buy gold from commercial banks at a negotiated price from April 8.

On March 25, the bank had said it would buy gold at a fixed price of 5,000 roubles a gram until June 30.

Since that announcement, the rouble has strengthened sharply against the dollar. Five thousand roubles was worth around $52 on March 25 and around $63 on Thursday.

Gold prices on the international market have remained stable at around $60 a gram, or $1,900 an ounce.

Russia is one of the world’s biggest gold producers, but the country’s refiners were barred from selling bullion into the London market, the world’s largest, after the Kremlin sent troops into Ukraine in February.

($1 = 78.6830 roubles)

5.OTHER COMMODITIES

/FERTILIZER

Now American’s largest farm  cooperative warns that sanctions will spark fertilizer shortages in the USA

(zerohedge)

America’s Largest Farm Cooperative Warns Sanctions May Spark Fertilizer Shortages

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 08:40 PM

America’s largest farmer cooperative sounded the alarm Wednesday about possible disruptions of fertilizer supplies from Russia due to Western sanctions on Moscow.

CHS Inc., the largest agricultural cooperative in the US, said in an SEC filing that it’s concerned about obtaining Russian fertilizer because of sanctions making it “more expensive and difficult to do business with Russia.” 

CHS warned that sanctions could “cause delays with respect to, or prevent, shipments of fertilizer to uscause inflationary pressures on and impact our ability to purchase fertilizer, disrupt the execution of banking transactions with certain Russian financial institutions and result in volatility in foreign exchange rates and interest rates, all of which could have a material adverse effect on our business and operations.”  

The cooperative said it holds no operations in Russia. However, it has $30 million in grain inventories sitting in silos in Ukraine and will have to take an “impairment charge” because of its inability to access those stockpiles. 

CHS warns there’s a risk the conflict in Ukraine “could lead to a much larger conflict and/or additional sanctions imposed by the United States government and other governments that restrict business with specific persons, organizations or countries or with respect to certain products or services.” And said if such an event did occur, it would wreck more global supply chains and “could materially adversely affect our business operations and financial performance.” 

For some context, Russia is one of the world’s largest fertilizer exports. Countries already afflicted by food insecurity, such as emerging market economies, will experience some of the first fertilizer and food shortages first. By the way, violent inflation protests are already beginning in Peru. 

The farming industry is being clubbed like a baby seal by the Ukrainian conflict and Western sanctions against Moscow. It’s the sanctions causing fertilizer prices to soar, diesel prices to erupt, and the cost of everything to inflate. Also, international shipping companies are steering clear of trade with Russia — making it even hard to acquire fertilizer products. The Ukrainian conflict and resulting sanctions make no food supply chain safe.

end 

OIL TANKER RATES

Oil tanker rates climb as traders stay away from Russian vessels

(zerohedge)

Oil Tanker Rates Climb As Traders Shun Russian Vessels 

THURSDAY, APR 07, 2022 – 05:45 AM

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, many Western countries have banned Russian crude imports. Now, however, countries and companies are shunning the use of Russia’s massive fleet of oil tankers, which has driven up tanker rates, according to Bloomberg

Shipping analyst Peder Nicolai Jarlsby at Oslo-based Fearnley Securities wrote that Sovcomflot PJSC, a state-controlled company with the largest Aframax-class fleet in the world, has been shunned by global oil traders. The result is fewer oil tankers available to haul crude, which has pushed up tanker rates. 

Rising freight costs add to inflationary headwinds for the energy market that will only boost costs for refineries and, in return, continue to increase the costs for producing crude products, such as gasoline and diesel. 

Even though Aframaxes are one of the smallest oil tankers (move about 700,000 barrels), Sovcomflot’s “largely untouchable” fleet is driving up daily rates for larger tankers as well, such as very large crude carriers, or VLCCs. 

The analyst said VLCCs are replacing Aframaxes as there is greater demand for the shrinking number of available vessels. 

And there could be more bullish catalysts ahead for tanker rates, as the next round of US and EU sanctions could be imminent. 

“Were Europe to escalate its sanctions to a formal ban on Russian oil, then more exports would likely sail to Asia, further eroding the availability of ships as they will have to travel further,” the analyst noted. 

As the war in Ukraine drags on, impending Western sanctions could make the availability of tankers decline even further, which would continue to add to inflationary pressures.

end 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL

Special thanks to Doug C for sending this to us:

Commodities Could Soar 40% as Investors Pivot, JPMorgan Says – Bloomberg

Inbox

douglas cundey9:31 AM (2 minutes ago)
to Chris, William, Bill, me

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-07/commodities-could-soar-40-as-investors-pivot-jpmorgan-predicts?srnd=premium

JPMorgan Says Be Ready for 40% Commodities Rally in Market Shift

Demand for inflation hedges may boost allocations, bank says Raw materials hit record last month following Ukraine invasion

Joanna OssingerApril 7, 2022, 3:23 AM EDT

Commodities soared to a record last month.
Commodities soared to a record last month.Source: Bloomberg

Want the lowdown on European markets? In your inbox before the open, every day. Sign up here.

Commodities could surge by as much 40% — taking them far into record territory — should investors boost their allocation to raw materials at a time of rising inflation, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

While allocations appear to be above historical averages on commodities, they are not very overweight, according to strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. That suggests scope for gains in raw materials, they said.

relates to JPMorgan Says Be Ready for 40% Commodities Rally in Market Shift
Source: JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Commodities soared to a record last month as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine roiled markets, boosting the prices of everything from oil to wheat. That’s helped to spur already-elevated global inflation and a tougher response from the Federal Reserve, prompting investors to weigh reshuffling the weighting of assets between stocks, bonds and raw materials in their portfolios.

“In the current juncture, where the need for inflation hedges is more elevated, it is conceivable to see longer-term commodity allocations eventually rising above 1% of total financial assets globally, surpassing the previous highs,” the JPMorgan strategists wrote in an April 6 note. All else being equal, that “would imply another 30% to 40% upside for commodities from here,” they said.

Commodities have rallied across the board this year, with gains in energy, metals and crops. Among the gainers, Brent crude — the global oil benchmark — has surged more than 30% and hit the highest level since 2008 last month.

Among leading banks, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has also been consistently bullish on raw materials, in part on their role as an inflation hedge. Goldman warned in an April 7 note that a global copper shock was under way.

(Adds commodity gainers in penultimate paragraph)

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING TODAY

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.3620

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3672

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 271.54   PTS OR 1.23%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 461.73 PTS OR 1.69% 

3. Europe stocks  ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

USA dollar INDEX  DOWN TO  99.56/Euro RISES TO 1.0915

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.2380/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 123.96/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 98.44 and Brent: 103.16

3f Gold  UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   UP -SHORE CLOSED UP//  OFF- SHORE  UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DONW for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.0.681%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 2.34% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 1.64%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.66: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 2.69

3k Gold at $1927.50 silver at: 24.40   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 3  7/8 in roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 79.43

3m oil into the 98 dollar handle for WTI and 103 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 123.61 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9335– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0187 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.624 UP 3 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.659 UP 3 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.74

Futures Rebound From Two-Day Plunge As Yield And Oil Rise

THURSDAY, APR 07, 2022 – 07:49 AM

U.S. index futures edged higher, along with European shares, after the sharpest two-day drop in almost a month, as investors digested Federal Reserve’s hawkish path and were jerked higher by a fleeting moment of Ukraine ceasefire hope when Emini futures initially spiked to session highs on the following Reuters headline:

  • RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS UKRAINE PRESENTED A NEW DRAFT AGREEMENT TO RUSSIA ON WEDNESDAY – IFX

… only to reverse the entire move two minutes later when the following headline hit:

  • LAVROV: UKRAINE PROPOSALS ON CRIMEA, DONBAS UNACCEPTABLE: IFX

Mini hiccup aside, S&P futures were about 0.1% higher at 4,481 while Nasdaq futures gained 0.5% to 14,574, signaling an end to a selloff in the underlying index that erased $850 billion in market value over two days.  Ten-year Treasury yields were flat around 2.61%, the dollar extended its rally to a sixth day, the longest streak in almost 10 months, and oil rebounded from yestereday’s IEA reserve release-driven plunge.

Markets are showing signs of recovery after a selloff brought on by hawkish Fed minutes in which the central bank laid out a long-awaited plan to shrink their balance sheet by about $95BN per month or more than $1 trillion a year while raising interest rates “expeditiously” to counter the hottest inflation in four decades.

“The FOMC minutes gave the clarity that every investors was looking for,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. “The US 2-10 year spread is back in the positive after having slipped below zero, but the recession threat is real, keeping the investor mood sour as the Fed pulls back support.”

“The Fed delivered what most market watchers were looking for, with details around the pace and composition of the balance sheet runoff,” said Janus Henderson global bond PM Jason England. Along with recent hawkish comments from Fed officials, the minutes showed “the Fed has pivoted from a gradual approach to tightening monetary policy to now moving more rapidly toward a neutral stance,” he said.

In premarket trading, HP shares were up 13% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought an 11% stake worth $4.2 billion in the laptop maker valued at more than $4.2 billion. SoFi shares declined 5.1% in premarket after the fintech firm gave new guidance as the U.S. government extended the pause on student-loan payments. Other notable premarket overs include:

  • Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI US) gains 5.5% in premarket trading after it said revenue during the most recent quarter increased 22% to $1.6 billion. Wells Fargo said comments about a strong first quarter and good momentum in March should help dispel investor concerns, at least in the near term.
  • Wayfair (W US) falls 4.4% in premarket trading after Wells Fargo downgrades to underweight from equal weight in sector note turning more cautious on housing-impacted retailers.
  • SoFi (SOFI US) drops 5.1% in premarket trading as Morgan Stanley cuts its 2022 Ebitda estimate by $42m to $100m after the fintech firm gave new guidance as the U.S. government extended the pause on student-loan payments.
  • Sprinklr’s fourth- quarter results were a positive, though the most impressive point was the software company’s guidance, Barclays analysts led by Raimo Lenschow write in a note. The shares rose 4.7% in postmarket trading on Wednesday.
  • Vapotherm (VAPO US) falls 23% in premarket trading after the respiratory-device company reported preliminary quarterly revenue that fell short of analysts’ estimates and withdrew its annual guidance.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 added 0.7%, boosted by a rally in shares of Atlantia SpA, the billionaire Benettons’ highway and airport group. Atlantia added 10% in Italian trading after a non-binding bid from Global Infrastructure Partners and Brookfield Asset Management Inc. European healthcare and chemical stocks outperformed, while energy and miners declined. IBEX outperformed, adding 1.5%, FTSE 100 lags, dropping 0.1%. Health care, chemicals and travel are the strongest performing sectors. The energy sector was in the red, dragging the U.K.’s benchmark FTSE 100 down, as Shell’s $4-$5BN hit from its withdrawal from Russia weighed on oil producers. The statement from the London-based giant shows that, despite a surge in oil and gas prices, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended the supermajors’ plans and left them scrambling to adapt to historic shifts in energy markets. Here are the most notable European premarket movers:

  • Atlantia shares rise as much as 12%, extending yesterday’s gains, after a Bloomberg report that the motorway and airport company could become the target of a bidding war.
  • Electrolux advances as much as 5.8% after announcing a positive non- recurring item of $70.5m in 1Q.
  • Euronav shares gain as much as 12% on news of a potential stock-for-stock combination with Frontline to create a tanker company with a market capitalization of more than $4.2b.
  • Daetwyler shares jump as much as 6% after it announced the acquisition of U.S. electrical connector seals company QSR, with Baader saying the deal may benefit earnings from day one.
  • 888 shares surge as much as 31% after the gambling company announced a share placement to pay for its now-cheaper acquisition of William Hill’s international assets, with analysts reacting positively.
  • Verbio shares surge to a record high after Hauck & Aufhauser lifts its PT on the biodiesel manufacturer by almost 33% ahead of what the broker expects to be “another outstanding quarter.”
  • European basic resources and energy shares decline, lagging all other sectors, as commodity prices start to pull back, with Anglo American, Rio Tinto and Glencore all posting declines.
  • PageGroup and other staffing companies fall after Jefferies lowers EPS estimates across the sector and takes a “more risk-off approach” in note, downgrading PageGroup in the process.
  • Countryside shares sank as the home developer forecast a decline in profit after conducting a review of its business following a dispute with an activist investor.
  • TI Fluid Systems falls as much as 12% after Jefferies downgraded the automotive parts maker to hold from buy, saying conditions faced by the company are among the most difficult in its coverage.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks slid to a three-week low as traders feared a rapid rise in U.S. interest rates and aggressive scale-back of the Federal Reserve’s bond holdings could stymie growth and hurt earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost as much as 1.4% on Thursday, with tech shares leading the losses in many countries, after minutes of the Fed’s March meeting showed plans to shrink its balance sheet by more than $1 trillion a year. The fall came after the Asian benchmark slumped 1.5% on Wednesday following similarly hawkish comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard. Worries that hawkish policy tightening by the Fed may cool the world’s largest economy or even tip it into a recession are hitting equities broadly across Asia. Stocks in China also buckled, even as the state council renewed its pledge to use monetary policy tools at an “appropriate time” and consider other measures to boost consumption, according to the readout from a meeting of the State Council chaired by Premier Li Keqiang on Wednesday.

“The Fed is telling us that the party is over. It is saying it will take away the punch bowl,” said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities in Tokyo. “This will have a serious impact on all risk assets.” Fujito saw tech shares with rich valuations as the most vulnerable, adding that investors will be trying to seek shelter in utilities and defensive stocks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Information Technology Index fell about 2%.  Benchmarks in Japan and South Korea underperformed other Asian peers, while gauges in Australia and India posted smaller declines on Thursday.   For April, the MSCI Asia is now down more than 2% on top of a slump of almost 7% last quarter — the most since the first three months of 2020 — amid concern about the war in Ukraine, higher rates and inflation. 

Japanese equities fell by the most in almost four weeks, deepening declines in tandem with U.S. peers amid concerns over the Federal Reserve’s plans to tighten monetary policy. Electronics makers and service providers were the biggest drags the Topix, which dropped 1.6%, in its third day of decline. Tokyo Electron and Fast Retailing were the largest contributors to a 1.7% loss in the Nikkei 225.  Minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting showed the U.S. central bank is prepared to raise rates sharply and reduce its balance sheet to cool the economy.

Indian stocks dropped with peers across Asia as the weekly expiry of derivative contracts weighed on the market.  The S&P BSE Sensex slipped for a third session, dropping 1% to 59,034.95, its biggest fall since March 21. The NSE Nifty 50 Index slipped 0.9%. HDFC Bank retreated 2.2%, while Reliance Industries declined 1.8%. Seventeen of 30 shares on the Sensex traded lower.  Fifteen of 19 sectoral sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. declined, led by a gauge of oil & gas stocks. The Fed’s plan to prune its near $9 trillion balance sheet, which was swollen by pandemic-era bond purchases, points to more volatility in global markets. Locally, the nation’s central bank will likely raise its inflation outlook to reflect costlier oil while leaving borrowing costs steady in its policy decision on Friday. “U.S. Fed’s hawkish stance has raised concerns of steeper interest rate hikes going ahead,” Kotak Securities analyst Shrikant Chouhan said. He sees volatility in global crude oil prices leading to profit taking in Reliance Industries and other energy stocks.

The S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.6% to close at 7,442.80, retreating alongside global peers after the Federal Reserve outlined plans to trim its balance sheet by more than $1 trillion a year while raising interest rates. Life360 was the biggest laggard as tech stocks dropped. Magellan Financial was the top performer after its funds under management update showed a slowdown in net outflows. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index was little changed at 12,075.91

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index is near flat, handing back earlier gains that saw it at a three-week high. RUB leads gains in EMFX.

In rates, the treasuries curve extends steepening counter-trend as front-end and belly yields retreat further from Wednesday’s YTD highs while long-end cheapens slightly. Yields richer by up to 3bp across front-end of the curve, steepening 2s10s by ~3bp with 10-year little changed near 2.60%; bunds and gilts keep pace. Bund, Treasury and gilt curves all bull steepen.

Meanwhile commodity markets continue to be whipsawed by disruptions sparked by Russia’s war in Ukraine and efforts to curb raw-material costs. WTI crude climbed toward $98 a barrel, paring a slump that was triggered by the International Energy Agency’s decision to deploy 60 million barrels from emergency stockpiles. WTI added 1.4% to trade near $98. Brent rises 1.5% to over $102. Most base metals trade in the red; LME nickel falls 2.3%, underperforming peers. Spot gold is little changed at $1,926/oz.

Raw materials could surge by as much 40% — taking them far into record territory — should investors boost their allocation to commodities at a time of rising inflation, according to JPMorgan.

In crypto, bitcoin is pressured and towards the low-end of a range that continues to drift from the USD 45k mark. Meta (FB) is exploring a virtual currency for the metaverse, according to the FT.

U.S. economic data slate includes initial jobless claims (8:30am) and February consumer credit (3pm). Fed speakers scheduled include Bullard (9am) and Bostic (2pm). U.S. session highlights include speech and Q&A by St. Louis Fed’s Bullard –who dissented from March FOMC decision in favor of a bigger rate increase — at 9am ET.  Other central bank speakers include Bostic and Evans, as well as the BoE’s Pill. We’ll also get the minutes from the ECB’s March meeting, along with remarks from the Fed’s Bullard,

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,476.75

MXAP down 1.4% to 176.33

MXAPJ down 1.4% to 584.33

Nikkei down 1.7% to 26,888.57

Topix down 1.6% to 1,892.90

Hang Seng Index down 1.2% to 21,808.98

Shanghai Composite down 1.4% to 3,236.70

Sensex down 0.7% to 59,191.33

Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 7,442.83

Kospi down 1.4% to 2,695.86

Brent Futures little changed at $101.14/bbl

Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,928.10

U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 99.69

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • ECB President Christine Lagarde said she tested positive for Covid-19, adding that her symptoms are “reasonably mild” and that there won’t be any impact on the operations of her institution
  • Surging U.S. real yields suggest bond traders believe the Federal Reserve can get a grip on inflation, but are likely to put further pressure on stocks and precious metals
  • German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said the nation has already cut its reliance on Russian coal by at least half in the past month and won’t stand in the way of a European Union ban on imports of the fuel from the country
  • In the days after the Ukraine war began, the ruble’s collapse was a potent symbol of Russia’s newfound financial isolation. Now, the ruble has surged all the way back to where it was before Putin invaded Ukraine
  • Hungary kept its effective key interest rate unchanged at the highest level in the European Union after the forint plunged on the bloc’s announcement that it is triggering a process that may block the country’s aid funds
  • China signaled it will step up monetary stimulus for the economy, acknowledging that domestic and global risks are now bigger than previously expected
  • Bank of Japan board member Asahi Noguchi says it’s vital to continue with monetary easing as it will take some time before the possibility of shrinking stimulus comes into sight.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded lower throughout most of the session as the downbeat mood reverberated from Wall Street. ASX 200 was dragged lower by its tech sector following a similar sectoral performance in the West. Nikkei 225 was hit by losses across its energy, mining and manufacturing names. KOSPI conformed to the global losses whilst Samsung Electronics (-0.3%) failed to benefit from better-thanexpected prelim earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were choppy and initially swung between gains and losses before stabilising in the red. Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) – Prelim Q1 (KRW) Revenue 77tln (exp. 75.7tln), Operating Profit 14.1tln (exp. 13.3tln), via Reuters

Top Asian News

  • Suspected Chinese Hackers Collect Intel From India’s Grid
  • SoftBank Tripled Share Buybacks to $1 Billion in March
  • Thailand Mulls Easing Covid Test Rules for Overseas Visitors
  • Japan to Release 15m Barrels From Oil Reserves: Kyodo

European bourses are firmer across the board and back in proximity to post-cash open levels after initial strength waned in choppy price action, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.7%. US futures have been relatively in-fitting with European peers, though the NQ, +0.5%, is the modest outperformer as yields take a breather from their recent surge. China’s Shanghai City is to cap the load factor of international flights by foreign airlines at 40% (prev. 75%), according to Reuters sources; effective from April 11th until month-end.

Top European News

  • Turkey Transfers Khashoggi Case to Saudi Arabia to Improve Ties
  • Shunned Oil Piling Up Off China as Virus Outbreak Worsens
  • EU Full Ban on Russia Coal to Be Delayed Until Mid-August: Rtrs
  • Yellen Says U.S. Would Use Sanctions If China Invaded Taiwan

FX:

  • Greenback sets marginal new YTD best after hawkish FOMC minutes reveal tight call between 25 bp and 50 bp lift-off plus large cap balance sheet reduction, DXY up to 99.823, thus far.
  • Albeit, the DXY has waned from best levels and turns flat ahead of the arrival of US participants as yields continue to pare
  • Euro eyeing option expiries for support ahead of ECB minutes following loss of 1.0900 handle vs Dollar; EUR/USD down below Fib at 1.0895.
  • Aussie unwinds more RBA inspired upside as trade surplus narrows on zero export balance; AUD/USD around 0.7475 vs circa 0.7661 only yesterday.
  • Yen benefits from retreat in yields rather than BoJ rhetoric reaffirming ultra easy policy and merits of a weaker currency, USD/JPY capped below 124.00.

Commodities:

  • Crude benchmarks consolidate near WTD lows after reserve release pressure; specifically, near lows of USD 95.43/bbl and USD 100.13/bbl for WTI and Brent.
  • Updates elsewhere have been slim, and focused on China’s Shanghai City from a demand-side perspective amidst ongoing Ukraine-Russia developments; albeit, nothing fundamentally new in terms of negotiations.
  • China is to strictly control new production capacity in the oil refining industry, according to the industry ministry
  • Gas flows via Yamal-Europe pipeline resume westward, according to Gascade data.
  • Spot gold/silver are contained and the yellow metal is once again capped by USD 1930/oz and LME Copper has failed to benefit from the equity pickup.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: April Initial Jobless Claims, est. 200,000, prior 202,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.3m, prior 1.31m
  • 15:00: Feb. Consumer Credit, est. $18.1b, prior $6.84b

Central Bank Speakers

  • 09:00: Fed’s Bullard Discusses the Economy and Monetary Policy
  • 14:00: Fed’s Bostic and Evans Discuss Inclusive Employment
  • 16:05: cancelled: Fed’s Williams Makes Closing Remarks

DB’s Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

We might be less than a week into Q2, but based on how markets are performing it’s shaping up to be very similar to Q1 thus far, with yesterday seeing another bond selloff and significant declines for global equities as markets gear up for the fastest monetary tightening we’ve seen in decades. Indeed, it seems to be progressively dawning on investors that this cycle of hikes is going to be very different to the one we saw from 2015, when even at its fastest in 2018, the Fed still only hiked rates by 100bps in a single year. As Jim has written, if we could erase the post-GFC cycle from people’s memory banks, there’s a case that markets would be pricing 300-400bps this year given where inflation is right now, not least given we saw hikes on that scale in the late-80s and from 1994 with inflation at much lower levels than it is at the minute.

Given the rapid expected tightening (as well as the negative shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), it’s worth noting that DB Research’s new World Outlook came out on Tuesday, (link here), where we downgraded our global growth forecasts and are now forecasting a US recession by the end of next year as our baseline. We also got a look into the Fed’s outlook yesterday with the release of the March FOMC minutes, where it looks like they would have hiked by 50bps in March were it not for the Russian invasion, and they are ready to entertain 50bps hikes going forward. The markets got the message, and upgraded the probability of a 50bp hike at the next meeting in early May to 85%.

The other big takeaway from the minutes were details around QT, which they signalled would start in May, in line with recent Fed speakers. The FOMC noted the balance sheet would rundown at a pace of $60bn Treasuries and $35bn MBS a month once QT hits terminal velocity, which should be by July if the minutes are to be believed. Markets digested the news, with Treasury yields more or less in line with their pre-minute levels into the close after declining modestly in the New York afternoon. With the pace of the runoff now set, the focus will turn to who buys the securities with the Fed stepping away and when the Fed has to stop QT.

Alongside the minutes, remarks from a number of officials yesterday helped to reiterate the point that policy will become tighter this year. Philadelphia Fed President Harker said that he expected “a series of deliberate, methodical hikes as the year continues”, whilst on the question of whether to move by 50bps, Richmond Fed President Barkin said that the FOMC “could certainly do that again if it is necessary to prevent inflation expectations from unanchoring”.

With all said and done, sovereign bond yields moved up to fresh highs on both sides of the Atlantic, with those on 10yr Treasuries up +5.1bps to 2.598%, which was its highest closing level since 2019, albeit some way beneath its intraday high of 2.656% shortly before noon in London, and this morning they have fallen a further -1.5bps to 2.583%. That increase yesterday was entirely driven by a rise in real yields, which rose +7.3bps to -0.24%, their highest level since March 2020, whilst a rally at the short end of the curve meant the 2s10s slope steepened for a 3rd day running, heading up to 12.2bps by the close. Those declines in shorter-dated yields came as futures actually took out a bit of Fed tightening from 2022, modestly reducing the expected number of additional hikes this year from 220bps in the previous session to 217bps by the close.

Over in Europe there were similar moves, with sovereign bond yields reaching fresh highs before paring back some of that increase towards the close. Yields on 10yr bunds (+3.3bps), OATs (+3.1bps) and BTPs (+3.8ps) all closed at multi-year records, although a key difference with US Treasuries were that the rise in European yields yesterday were driven by higher inflation expectations rather than real rates. In fact the 10yr German breakeven hit 2.81%, its highest in the data series that starts back in 2009, whilst the Italian 10yr breakeven hit 2.63%, its highest since 2008.

As on Tuesday, the selloff in bonds went hand in hand with further declines in equities, and by the close the S&P 500 (-0.97%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (-1.53%) had both lost ground as well, with cyclical sectors leading the declines. Tech stocks in particular were an underperformer once again, and the NASDAQ (-2.22%) and the FANG+ index (-3.46%) both struggled again, bringing their declines over the last 2 sessions to -4.43% and -6.63% respectively. Amidst the equity declines, the VIX index of volatility rose +1.1pts yesterday to 22.1pts, taking it up to its highest level in 2 weeks.

Overnight in Asia, equities have very much followed that retreat on Wall Street as monetary tightening remained in focus. Among the main indices, the Nikkei (-2.00%) is leading the moves lower, whilst the Kospi (-1.42%), Hang Seng (-1.04%), Shanghai Composite (-0.99%), and the CSI (-0.78%) are also trading in negative territory. Separately, we heard from China’s State Council yesterday that they would use monetary policy at an “appropriate time”, as they acknowledged downward pressures on the economy. Looking forward, stock futures in the US are pointing to further declines today, with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.37%) and Nasdaq 100 (-0.33%) both lower following those Fed minutes.

In terms of the latest on Ukraine, the EU continued to edge towards a fresh sanctions package, although that wasn’t finalised yesterday as had initially been suggested, with Reuters reporting that technical issues needed to be addressed like whether the ban on Russian coal would affect existing contracts. The report said that diplomats were optimistic about achieving a compromise today, so we could potentially see some news on that later, whilst in his speech to the European Parliament yesterday, European Council President Charles Michel also said that “I believe that measures on oil and even on gas will also be needed sooner or later.” Otherwise on sanctions, the US imposed further measures, including full blocking sanctions on Sberbank and Alfa Bank, along with a prohibition on new investment in Russia.

The various decisions came amidst a further decline in oil prices yesterday, with Brent crude down -5.22% to $101.07/bbl, its lowest closing level in 3 weeks. That was supported by confirmation that the International Energy Agency would release 60m barrels of crude, on top of the Biden Administration’s release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Brent has recovered somewhat this morning however, up +1.85% to $102.94/bbl.

Turning to the French presidential election, we’re now just 3 days away from the first round on Sunday, and the polls have continued to tighten between President Macron and his main challenger Marine Le Pen. Yesterday’s polls for the second round runoff put Macron ahead of Le Pen by 54%-46% (Ipsos), 53-47% (Opinionway), and 52.5%-47.5% (Ifop), which are all much tighter than the 66%-34% margin in the 2017 election. French assets have continued to underperform against this backdrop, with the CAC 40 equity index (-2.21%) seeing a weaker performance than the broader STOXX 600 (-1.53%) for a 6th consecutive session.

On yesterday’s data, the Euro Area PPI reading for February came in at a year-on-year rate of +31.4% (vs. 31.6% expected), which is the fastest pace since the formation of the single currency. Separately, German factory orders contracted by a larger than expected -2.2% in February (vs. -0.3% expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include German industrial production and Euro Area retail sales for February, along with the weekly initial jobless claims from the US. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll get the minutes from the ECB’s March meeting, along with remarks from the Fed’s Bullard, Bostic and Evans, as well as the BoE’s Pill.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 46.73 PTS OR 1.42% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 461.73 PTS OR 1.69%   /The Nikkei closed DOWN 461.73 PTS OR 1.69%        //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.69%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.3620    /Oil DOWN TO 98.44 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 103.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  ALL RED EXCEPT LONDON        //  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3620 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3672: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER//

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

END

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/

Wait times for semiconductor chips rise again due to China’s Shanghai lockdowns which is leading to supply chain congestion

(zerohedge)

Wait-Times For Semi Chips Rise As China Lockdowns Re-Ignite Supply Chain Congestion

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 07:20 PM

In March, the wait times for semiconductor deliveries increased again, an ominous sign that shortages persist and global supply chains remain congested. 

Lead times — the lag between when a semiconductor chip is ordered and delivered — increased by two days to 26.6 weeks last month, according to Bloomberg, citing new data from Susquehanna Financial Group. 

Susquehanna blamed increasing wait times on lockdowns in China and an earthquake in Japan that reduced the ability of major semiconductor manufacturers to increase output. In January, the group reported delays were diminishing, one of the first signs of improvements since 2019. However, that has since reversed as lead times rose in February. 

China’s Zero-COVID policy and resulting lockdown since mid-March have sparked economic turmoil as China’s Caixin Services PMI crashed to 42.0 in March from 50.2 in February, the largest single-month decline since February 2020. 

Taking a look at Goldman Sachs’ proprietary Effective Lockdown Index increased by more than ten points on average in March from February as tens of millions of people are in lockdown and factories are shuttered. 

Susquehanna analyst Chris Rolland said lead times for power management, microcontrollers, analog, and memory chips increased the most. He said the Ukraine conflict, COVID lockdowns in China, and an earthquake in Japan “will have a short-term impact in the first quarter but may have lingering effects on the severely constrained supply chain through the year.” 

The global shortage of semiconductors began more than two years ago in early 2020, driven mainly by the virus pandemic as the government showered Americans with helicopter money and work-at-home became widespread, pushing people to buy consumer electronic goods. Then there was a scarcity of chips as COVID shutdowns in China shuttered factories. At this rate, and considering the new developments at play, such as the war in Ukraine and China lockdowns, chip industry executives are now saying lead times might not alleviate until 2023. 

As lockdowns were being implemented in China last month, our analysis suggested the world should brace for more supply chain pain. 

Goldman Sachs’ transportation and logistics analyst Jordan Alliger wrote in a recent note to clients that weekly bottleneck metrics of the global supply chain remain elevated. 

Alliger remains “somewhat concerned over the recent Covid lockdowns in China — while ports remain open, the impact to warehouses and trucking (i.e., driver testing requirements) could create some near term backlog in loading ships/sending them to the USA, which could eventually cause the West Coast to see renewed backups if too many ships leave China all at once.” 

Even though Goldman and others had said global “bottlenecks have eased versus ‘peak’ levels in December/January (when our scale was at ’10’), we are still far from ‘normal’ congestion levels.” It appears congestion (but maybe not as severe) will be sticking around for the remainder of this year. 

end

CHINA/COVID/LOCKDOWNS

Seems that they have many false positives on their testing which is causing chaos behind the lockdowns in Shanghai

(Jing/EpochTimes)

“Pushed To The Brink Of Collapse”: Leaked Recording Of Shanghai CDC Expert Describes Chaos Behind Lockdown Measures

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 09:00 PM

Authored by Li Jing and Luo Ya via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

While Shanghai continues its lockdown and massive PCR testing campaign as COVID-19 surges through the city, a CDC expert’s complaint about chaotic PCR test reports that have confused people was recently exposed online. Shanghai CDC issued a notice demanding staff answer public inquiries “in line with the policy.”

There have been complaints about the conflicting PCR test results on Chinese social media because people receive a negative test result on their cell phones but then receive a positive test result from the CDC.

Shanghai adopted the Healthcare Cloud app as its integrated Internet and Healthcare services platform. Locals register through the app for a PCR test and receive the test result on their cell phones. However, many people received a negative test notice via the app but still were then notified by CDC that they had tested positive and were thus subject to quarantine.

Complaints have flooded the Shanghai CDC hotline.

A recently leaked recording of a CDC expert responding to a caller revealed how the app has been problematic, how overloaded health workers have been stymied by a lack of transparency in pandemic prevention, and how the pandemic has become a political issue.

The Test Negative Is Fake

In the recording, the expert said, “We have received hundreds of calls every day, but our jobs are epidemiological investigations. We can’t solve your problem.”

She said, “Let me tell you the facts: There’s no ward, the quarantine sites are filled, and there’s no ambulance.”

A male was heard complaining, “But we have no way to address our issue, even Weibo is blocked.”

The expert said, “I have brought this up too many times; as an expert, I have suggested that the mild to no symptom patients stay at home. Does anyone listen? No!”

She continued, “Let me reiterate, do not bother checking your health cloud, it’s all a negative result. Only we will notify you when you have tested positive.”

The caller responded, “So what we see is all fake?”

She said, “That’s right.”

In the recording, the expert encouraged making public the recording.

A Pandemic Turns Political

The expert explained that she had complained to her leader that CDC staff should not be contacting people about their testing positive while people have received a negative test message on the app. It has only exhausted the staff at the CDC and confused the public.

She said, “We, as the professionals, are pushed to the brink of collapse by the situation. This pandemic has become a political issue that’s consuming so much manpower, resources, and money, just to solve this flu-like disease. What other country do you think is doing this kind of epidemic prevention now?”

The expert also suggested to the caller, “The quarantine site is not up to standard, and there’s no medical service at the site. If you are forced to go to the isolation ward, ask them for proof of a positive test result before they can enforce it. Let me tell you, they won’t have it.”

After the recording was leaked, multiple online articles confirmed that the Shanghai CDC expert was Zhu Weiping, director of the Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Section of Shanghai Pudong New Area CDC. The Epoch Times has not been able to independently verify the authenticity of the recording.

According to the Chinese articleher comments drew criticism from those who support the communist regime, calling it a serious political incident—an advocate of “coexistence with the virus,” an aggressive attack on the party, and sabotaging and shaking the anti-epidemic deployment. Many netizens have supported her saying “protect Zhu Weiping.”

The leaked recording was soon deleted from the Chinese internet.

At the same time, the Shanghai CDC issued a notice to relevant departments demanding the hotline to be answered only by trained staff, and answers should be provided only in line with the current policy.

On March 28, Shanghai imposed a two-stage lockdown of four days, first for the eastern side of the city, and then the western side of the city, divided by the Huangpu River, with two rounds of nucleic acid tests, until April 5.

The city decided on April 4 to extend the lockdown with no known date to lift the restriction that affects more than 26 million people in the city.

Mary Hong contributed to this report.

end

CHINA/

Chinese electrical vehicles grapple with rising raw material costs and shrinking margins

(zerohedge)

Chinese EV Manufacturers Grapple With Rising Raw Material Costs, Shrinking Margins

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 11:20 PM

Chinese EV manufacturers are facing similar problems as the ones we pointed out that Japanese manufacturers are facing: rising raw material costs and shrinking margins.

Many EV manufacturers are doing the only thing they can to help alleviate the pressure – and that means raising prices for consumers. 

Bloomberg noted in a Monday morning wrap up that the problems China faces are slightly more unique to the country, because it is also trying to engineer a “soft landing” from EV subsidies, which Beijing has been rolling back – and will continue to roll back.

“What makes China unique is its commitment to simultaneously rolling back EV subsidies, setting up a delicate balance between growth and profit in the world’s biggest market for clean cars,” Bloomberg wrote. 

Companies like Tesla, BYD, Xpeng and Li Auto all hiked prices in March, the report says. Among the manufacturers raising prices was also Contemporary Amperex Technology, the world’s biggest EV battery maker. They said they were making “dynamic adjustments to the prices of some of our battery products”.

Remember, we just wrote days ago that Japanese automakers were also grappling with the skyrocketing cost of raw materials and a shortage of semiconductors still. 

Even as some parts have become unavailable, raw materials for other parts have skyrocketed in price. For example, palladium, nickel and aluminum have all surged to record highs this month. The metals are used in automobile catalytic converters, batteries and other car parts.

The price hikes are likely due to the fact that 40% of palladium production comes from Russia, Nikkei noted last week. This has forced auto manufacturers to abandon buying from Russia and seek out alternative sources. 

Hiroo Suzaki, president of South African metal producer Impala Platinum Japan, commented: “Losing Russian supply would leave a significant impact on the palladium market.”

Some demand for palladium will eventually wane due to the adoption of electric vehicles, Mikio Fujita, senior market analyst for Johnson Matthey, said. But for now, that doesn’t help automakers. Fujita commented: “As the auto industry shifts to electric vehicles, catalyst demand is expected to gradually shrink in the long run.”

Nickel, on the other hand, is expected to see a significant increase in demand thanks to the adoption of EVs. “This has led to an even tighter market and premiums are soaring to record high levels in Europe,” one trader told Nikkei. 

Recall, Tesla reportedly signed a “secret deal” to obtain nickel from Vale that is helping it sidestep a spike in prices. 

Gene Munster of Loup Ventures said: “What Tesla has done with nickel is a hidden competitive advantage. Tesla continues to be a couple of steps ahead of the rest.” And Munster is right, in that Musk has “repeatedly” flagged nickel as a concern for the company amidst broader sector demand that is expected to more than triple by 2030. 

On an earnings call two years ago, CEO Elon Musk urged: “Please mine more nickel. Tesla will give you a giant contract for a long period of time if you mine nickel efficiently and in an environmentally sensitive way.”

Meanwhile, other EV manufacturers are left scrambling. “The nickel price surge and the implications from the Russia-Ukraine invasion are likely to push battery manufacturers, particularly in the U.S., to secure alternate supply chains,” Bloomberg wrote.

Tesla’s “secret deal” is one of many it has put in place over the last year, the report says. 

END

Death wish for the dollar;  China begins buying Russian coal and oil in yuan ( and we suspect will convert the yuan to gold

(zerohedge)

Bretton Woods III? China Begins Buying Russian Coal And Oil In Yuan 

THURSDAY, APR 07, 2022 – 11:22 AM

The old economic order, in which the dollar’s centrality to global trade remains king, is beginning to fade. The latest example of the dollar’s demise comes as China purchases coal and oil from Russia in yuan due to Western sanctions isolating Russian banks from the SWIFT payment system. 

Chinese commodity firms purchased Russian coal in local currency in March, and the first shipments are expected to arrive in China this month, according to Bloomberg, citing Chinese consultancy Fenwei Energy Information Service Co. Traders said this coal shipment paid in yuan would be the first since the U.S. and Europe unleashed harsh sanctions severing some top Russian banks from SWIFT. 

Traders are also reporting Russian crude bought in yuan. The first Eastern Siberia Pacific Ocean grade crude shipment will arrive at Chinese refiners in May. 

Russia and China trading yuan for commodities is just one example of a new emerging economic order.

Premium subs should recall former N.Y. Fed repo guru and current Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar’s stunning note last week that said the consequences of the Ukraine war are ushering in “the birth of the Bretton Woods III – a new world (monetary) order centered around commodity-based currencies in the East that will likely weaken the Eurodollar system and also contribute to inflationary forces in the west.”

Fast forwarding to the punchline, Poszar wrote that if the framework he has laid out previously (and again, in his latest note) is the right framework to think about how to trade interest rates in coming years, inflation will be higher; the level of rates will be higher too; demand for commodity reserves will be higher, which will naturally replace demand for FX reserves (Treasuries and other G7 claims); Meanwhile, demand for dollars will be lower too as more trade will be done in other currencies; and as a result of this, the perennially negative cross-currency basis (the dollar premium) will naturally fade away and potentially become a positive cross-currency basis.

Translation: the dollar is on its way out as the world’s undisputed reserve currency, a consequences of events that put in motion when Putin invaded Ukraine (with the implicit blessing of China and India) and when the West decided to expel Russia from the entire western financial system.

It is this chain of events that Pozsar calls Bretton Woods III and the reports of China’s purchases of oil and coal in yuan (not dollars) suggesting the path to that new world order is accelerating faster that many hoped (as the surge in the Ruble may also suggest).

Pozsar spoke with Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway this week and recited his Bretton Woods III thesis, suggesting: 

“Instead of a Volcker moment, we got a Putin moment and we basically have war and out of this war, something will also emerge.

“Out of this, I think this ‘Bretton Woods III’ that I started to kind of develop and run with, is a world where we are, again, going to go back to commodity-backed money — where gold, once again, is going to play a big role. And not just gold, but I think all forms of commodities,” Pozsar said.

To the Credit Suisse strategist’s point, the global financial system’s plumbing is being reworked, and the dollar’s dominance in global trade is being challenged.

As Pepe Escobar recently noted, Iran has shown how to do it.

Persian Gulf traders confirmed to The Cradle that Iran is selling no less than 3 million barrels of oil a day even now, with no signed JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreement, currently under negotiation in Vienna). Oil is relabeled, smuggled, and transferred from tankers in the dead of night.

All the blather about “crashing Russian markets,” ending foreign investment, destroying the ruble, a “full trade embargo,” expelling Russia from “the community of nations,” and so forth –that’s for the zombified galleries. Iran has been dealing with the same thing for four decades, and survived.

Moscow is also considering a rupee-ruble payment system for Indian oil traders, while Saudi Arabia could start pricing some of its brent in yuan for Chinese traders.

“The oil market, and by extension the entire global commodities market, is the insurance policy of the status of the dollar as reserve currency,” said economist Gal Luft, co-director of the Washington-based Institute for the Analysis of Global Security who co-wrote a book about de-dollarization.

“If that block is taken out of the wall, the wall will begin to collapse.”

A drop in the demand for dollars would be bad news for a US government that depends on dollar demand to fund its out-of-control spending. As Michael Maharrey recently wrote, imagine a world in which the Chinese didn’t need dollars.

China ranks as the biggest foreign holder of US debt. If it continues to divest itself of dollars, who will pick up the slack? The Federal Reserve has been buying Treasuries hand over fist for the last two years, keeping its big fat thumb on the bond market. But it’s tapering purchases and supposedly planning on shrinking its balance sheet. If global demand for Treasuries drop precipitously — and it would in a world without the petrodollar — the US government would either have to drastically cut spending or the Fed would have to continue printing money to monetize the debt.

Even if this is nothing but talk, it underscores the fact that the dollar is on shaky ground. US policymakers would be wise to consider future dollar weaponization carefully.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

//EU/RUSSIA/NATO/FINLAND

Russia will not be happy:  Finland is now mulling whether to accept NATO membership.  Russia warns of serious consequences

(Anzalone/Libertarian Institute)

Finland Mulling NATO Membership After Russia Warns Of ‘Serious Consequences’

THURSDAY, APR 07, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Kyle Anzalone & Will Porter Via The Libertarian Institute,

Finland is mulling whether to join the NATO military alliance, Prime Minister Sanna Marin said, noting that a decision could come by next spring while citing a new “security environment” in Europe following Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

Speaking to fellow members of the ruling Social Democratic Party over the weekend, the PM said Moscow’s ongoing invasion is a “flagrant violation” of international law, arguing that “Russia is not the neighbor we thought it was.” She added that this has prompted the government to rethink its long-standing policy of neutrality toward the NATO bloc.

“In this new situation and changed security environment, we’ll have to evaluate all means to guarantee the safety of Finland and Finns,” Marin said. “We’ll have to seriously mull over our own stance and approach to military alignment. We’ll have to do this carefully but quickly, effectively during the course of this spring.”

Marin previously stated that NATO membership would be “very unlikely,” but has since changed her tune, now saying the assault on Ukraine had altered relations with Russia in “irreversible” ways. 

While Finland maintained a strict stance of non-alignment throughout the Cold War, refusing to enter NATO as well as the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact, recent polling indicates that Finns are increasingly favorable to membership in the North Atlantic alliance. A survey conducted in February showed a majority of respondents (53%) would back the idea, up from just 19% in 2017 – dubbed a “historic shift” by former Prime Minister Alex Stubb.

Opposition leaders such as Petteri Orpo, who heads up the National Coalition Party, have also publicly supported NATO membership for Finland, arguing that it is not only necessary for the country’s defense, but would mean it had fully joined the West. 

“In order to improve our security and guarantee our independence, we should join NATO. We still have a powerful and aggressive neighbor,” Orpo said, referring to Russia. “For me, NATO membership is not just about the pros and cons, it’s a bigger question of our identity. We are a western country… In this sense, our place is in NATO.”

However, some in government have objected to the idea, with one senior official telling the Financial Times the move may be seen as a dangerous provocation by Russia. “Applying for membership carries awful risks for Finland, and for NATO,” they said. “I have always said that joining military alliances is something you do in quiet times, so that you do not import any instability into the organization you join.”

In comments to CNN on Sunday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that both Finland and Sweden would be “very much welcomed by all 30 allies,” even suggesting their membership could be fast-tracked.

Russia has long demanded an end to the eastward expansion of NATO, citing assurances from Washington that the alliance would not grow by “one inch” just before the fall of the Soviet Union. While it has vocally opposed membership for its neighbors Ukraine and Georgia, Moscow has also repeatedly warned that it would retaliate should Finland or Sweden join the bloc, though officials have yet to say how. 

“It is obvious that [if] Finland and Sweden join NATO, which is a military organization to begin with, there will be serious military and political consequences,” said Russian Foreign Ministry official Sergei Belyayev. “[It] would require changing the whole palette of relations with these countries and require retaliatory measures.”

END

GERMANY/COVID/VACCINE MANDATE

idiotic!!

Bill Introducing ‘Mandatory Vaccination’ For All Germans Over 60 Expected To Pass

THURSDAY, APR 07, 2022 – 02:45 AM

The COVID pandemic has largely subsided in Europe (although health authorities have warned about an uptick in cases caused by subvariants and hybrid variants of the omicron strain). But this hasn’t stopped German lawmakers from pushing for a new law that would legally require people age 60 and older to be vaccinated.

But that’s not all. The deal struck by members of Germany’s ruling “stop sign” coalition, which includes Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party, the Greens and the ‘classical liberal’ Free Democrats, also includes an option for making COVID shots mandatory for everybody age 18 and older.

That second provision will depend on how the next wave of the pandemic develops during the fall, according to Bloomberg, which cited a local report.

According to other provisions in the proposed law, the government would initially try to “encourage” the unvaccinated to voluntary submit to inoculation (Germany still has millions of unvaccinated citizens, not unlike the US). Fortunately, even if the proposal becomes a law (it’s due for a vote on Thursday), it will also include provisions that would reverse the situation if enough people receive their COVID shots voluntarily before the summer.

Lawmakers told Bloomberg that the goal of the proposal is “effective prevention.”

“We are united by the goal of effective prevention through the highest possible level of basic immunity for all adults for the fall, because in this way we can prevent the health system from being overwhelmed,” they added.

Germany is still recording more than 200,000 cases and more than 300 deaths from the virus on most days. But with more than 75% of its population vaccinated, the pressure on the country’s health-care system has significantly lessened since the depths of the pandemic.

Most western countries have strongly opposed mandatory vaccination requirements (although the Biden Administration in the US has attempted to force millions of workers to either get vaccinated or risk losing their jobs before the Supreme Court to declare Biden’s executive orders unconstitutional). But Chancellor Scholz has decided that mandatory vaccination is permissible, so long as the Bundestag grants its blessing.

Another lawmaker said compulsory vaccination for all Germans over 60 will help the German economy remain “free” during the fall wave. Whether that’s true or not remains to be seen.

end

EU RUSSIA/

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/THE WEST

Lavrov rejects new Ukrainian draft peace proposal as unacceptable.  Lavrov states that the uSA is seeking to undermine talks

(zerohedge)

Lavrov Rejects New Ukraine Draft Peace Proposal As “Unacceptable”, Says US Seeks To Undermine Talks

THURSDAY, APR 07, 2022 – 08:03 AM

Now at over half-a-dozen rounds to talks in, Ukraine and Russia seem no closer to achieving an end to the crisis at the negotiating table from when they first started – but possibly for some involved, that kind of stalling could be precisely the point.

At Istanbul talks from last week, the Russian side initially said it got a “clearly articulated position” from the Ukrainians, based chiefly in Kiev offering neutrality on NATO, and non-aligned, non-nuclear status. S&P futures jumped on the Kremlin revealing that Ukraine had presented a new draft agreement the day prior – but then dumped on Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in a series of fresh Thursday statements further revealing that “provisions in draft agreements presented to Russian negotiators by Ukraine on Wednesday differ from those outlined at the talks in Istanbul late last month,” according to Interfax. 

Lavrov charged that Ukraine and its Western backers are seeking to “draw out and undermine talks” – something ironically which Ukrainian side has in the recent past accused Moscow of doing. He claimed that Washington is pushing Zelensky to continue fighting. Here are his words as presented in state media:

“Yesterday the Ukrainian side presented its draft agreements to our negotiators which showed a clear departure from key provisions which were committed to at the meeting in Istanbul on 29 March. These provisions, moreover, were fixed in the document signed by David Arakhamia, the head of the Ukrainian delegation,” Lavrov said in a video address Thursday.

The Russian top diplomat then quickly called the new, divergent proposals that Moscow reviewed “unacceptable” – rejecting them outright. He explained they proposed to discuss the status of Crimea and Donbas – the latter where Russian forces currently appear to be concentrating most of their military efforts. Specifically he pointed out that future security guarantees for Ukraine excludes Russian control over Crimea and Sevastopol.

Yesterday, Lavrov suggested the West is using “hysteria” over war crimes allegations to hinder any progress at the negotiating table…

Lavrov went on to say in the Thursday comments that Russia will prepare and promote its own proposals at the next round of Ukraine talks which are said to be “dragging along” but with a “long road ahead”. 

END

NATO/EU CYNICAL SACRIFICE OF UKRAINE, BUCHA, UKRAINE FAKE NEWS, PSYCHOPATHS FILM THEIR WAR CRIMES | Freenations

Inbox

Robert Hryniak9:45 AM (21 minutes ago)
to

If you think it is all Russians who are bad, you might wish to read this as the Neo Nazi Ukrainians are likely as bad or worse. And are not deserving of any sympathy as they are criminals within the country against the civilians.
There’s simply are no clean hands in this fight. And the real victims are the civilians who have to live through the horrors of this.
However, be assured this would not be occurring without western involvement. All decision made in the Ukraine are decisions by the delusional bunch who will sacrifice not just the last Ukrainian but the western public, in pursuit of their agenda. Perhaps we need to question who are good guys, because disclosures coming out about Hunter Biden and the involvement amongst others, in the Ukraine suggest we know very little of what has gone on in the Ukraine and the interests vested there. Because the information that will be coming out will be very disturbing and criminal in nature. And why, the hysterical push to a wider war is occurring now.
When daily we get bombarded with one sided narrative, we should understand that we are being asked to stop thinking, and accept what we are being told. Very much like the the whole Covid drama which has now become a very debatable narrative with many people not happy with the results of the shots.
We are being played and worked with all the real information yet to come and we need to take time to see the realities because otherwise we are being asked to go for a ride on a twisted agenda.

http://freenations.net/nato-eu-cynical-sacrifice-of-ukraine-bucha-ukraine-fake-news-psychopaths-film-their-war-crimes/

end

UKRAINE

The Dog That Ain’t Barking in Ukraine

Inbox

Robert Hryniak1:14 PM (48 minutes ago)
to

Larry Johnson has made some good points to keep in mind.  The dazzle dazzle of Zelensky is a distraction from the reality of a currency war that is motion. The suffering of the Ukraine and it’s inhabitants is nothing compared what will happen if this widens as a fight with NATO directly and overtly. Right now it is covert since no one wants to discuss why NATO troops are in the Ukraine in the first place. If this changes it will be a fight that will be a a travesty for a much wider population. Have no doubt an overt confrontation will be a nuclear one in a hurry. Dreams of conventional warfare are simply delusions. It will be hypersonic missiles flying in every direction with 10’s of millions dead, if not hundreds.
As it is it is doubtful Ukraine can be counted upon as a exporter of grains like it was and this will take its’ toll both now and in the future. It maybe all smiles now but when the belly hungers perhaps not so much. The whole mess is stupid but as i have said many a time every Ukrainian to the last one is expendable in this fight with Russia. And sadly, the Ukraine is highjacked by a small Neo Nazi crowd for foreign masters willing to serve every Ukrainian up, on the platter of death.
It is ironic that it may take a global famine to bring common sense to prevail.

Cheers
Robert

ReplyForward

END

/ISRAEL

Terror Attack On Busy Tel Aviv Bar District Leaves 2 Dead, 8 Wounded – Large Manhunt Underway

Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN

THURSDAY, APR 07, 2022 – 04:16 PM

A mass shooting in Tel Aviv Thursday evening left at least two dead and at least eight more wounded, sending a central district into chaos as police hunted for possibly multiple attackers who fled. 

What’s being widely reported as a terrorist attack targeted a bar on Dizengoff Street, which is typically on the weekends a crowded nightlife area. “As the street filled with ambulances and rescuers, police carried out searches for a gunman thought to have escaped, going door to door and telling people to stay inside and lock their doors,” The Times of Israel reports.

The gunman or gunmen walked up to the popular bar called Ilka – where a lot of people were seated in a large outdoor section – and opened fire, according to eyewitnesses. People dove under tables as well as scattered as the shots range out.

Ten people were rushed to the nearby Ichilov Hospital with gunshot wounds, two of whom were later declared dead, the hospital said. Four others were listed as critical and were undergoing surgery, according to the hospital,” The Times of Israel continues.

Some initial reports said that in the hour following the attack that one or more attackers may still been at large, with conflicting reports, with police describing “a nationalistically motivated terror attack, though the identity of the attacker or attackers was not immediately known.”

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NrZWxldG9uX2xvYWRpbmdfMTMzOTgiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoiY3RhIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19zcGFjZV9jYXJkIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9mZiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=true&id=1512145368141737992&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fterror-attack-busy-tel-aviv-bar-district-leaves-2-dead-8-wounded-manhunt-underway&sessionId=82326af88eed61bd6c3cb0fff25271c6ed2fea39&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=940dd9ee54270%3A1649359550911&width=550px

A huge police presence has descended on the area, with security forces in SWAT gear combing the streets and reportedly going to door-to-door looking for a suspect

Initial reports indicated at least one shooter had been “neutralized,” but police told residents in the area to remain inside out of fear that gunmen could still be on the loose. Police chief Yaakov Shabtai arrived at the scene of the attack and asked people to remain alert and report any suspicious individuals.

IDF troops and border police forces are also said to be responding as a search for a gunman or gunmen continues.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NrZWxldG9uX2xvYWRpbmdfMTMzOTgiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoiY3RhIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19zcGFjZV9jYXJkIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9mZiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1512145284964495375&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fterror-attack-busy-tel-aviv-bar-district-leaves-2-dead-8-wounded-manhunt-underway&sessionId=82326af88eed61bd6c3cb0fff25271c6ed2fea39&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=940dd9ee54270%3A1649359550911&width=550px

Israeli correspondents later confirmed the deaths of at least two victims.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-2&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NrZWxldG9uX2xvYWRpbmdfMTMzOTgiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoiY3RhIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19zcGFjZV9jYXJkIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9mZiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=true&id=1512160730849714176&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fterror-attack-busy-tel-aviv-bar-district-leaves-2-dead-8-wounded-manhunt-underway&sessionId=82326af88eed61bd6c3cb0fff25271c6ed2fea39&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=940dd9ee54270%3A1649359550911&width=550px

developing…

end

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE

ISSUES/GLOBAL ISSUES//ORIGINS OF COVID 19//COVID 19

UK/DATA

Fwd: The British are now officially hiding Covid vaccine data

Inbox

Mark Organ1:08 PM (59 minutes ago)

Probably old news to some of you. Governments stop presenting data when it is adverse to their position.

In other news, my Moderna short is doing extremely well. 

Sent from my iPhone

Begin forwarded message:

The British are now officially hiding Covid vaccine data
As of today, they have stopped releasing it, and they are lying about the reason why.
Alex BerensonApr 7


Until last week, the British government offered the best source of raw data on the efficacy of the Covid vaccines. Each Thursday, the UK Health Security Agency reported the number of new infections, hospitalizations, and deaths by vaccine status.Since last fall, and especially since the Omicron variant hit, the reports have presented an increasingly dismal picture of vaccine efficacy. Last week’s report showed that in March, nearly 90 percent of adults hospitalized for Covid were vaccinated. And OVER 90 percent of deaths were in the vaccinated:—The importance of these reports is hard to overstate.They were the single best source of raw data about how well the Covid vaccines were or were not working anywhere in the world. It was a long-running sequential series with clearly defined rules from a large country with high vaccine coverage.Plus, because the British have national health insurance, the government could determine with near-certainty who had been vaccinated. As you can see, fewer than 1 percent of the people in the reports are called “unlinked” – meaning their vaccine status was undetermined.AS OF THIS WEEK’S REPORT THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT IS NO LONGER PROVIDING THESE CHARTS.The British government is offering the nonsensical excuse that it can no longer provide the figures because it has ended free universal testing for Covid: Such changes in testing policies affect the ability to robustly monitor COVID-19 cases by vaccination status, therefore, from the week 14 report onwards this section of the report will no longer be published.The British government is lying.Even if the end of free testing somehow affected its ability to provide “robust” data about infections, it would make no difference to the hospitalization or death figures, which are far more important. Unless Covid patients are going to be hospitalized anonymously, the Health Security Agency will still be able to match their names (and the names on death certificates) against vaccination records.In fact the British government would be derelict not to continue to collect the data, and it surely will. But the public will no longer see it.Why?One reason and one reason only. Ever since I mentioned the existence of these reports to Joe Rogan in October, they have become an embarrassment. They are impossible to spin, and the clearest possible signal of vaccine failure.But hiding the numbers won’t make the vaccines work better. It will just make people less likely to believe anything else public health authorities tell them about Covid and the vaccines – if that’s even possible at this point.LikeCommentShare

end

GLOBAL ISSUES

end  

VACCINE MANDATES/

VACCINE INJURIES//

Milan Sabioncello9:21 AM (5 minutes ago)
to me

That is an image//vaccines not very effective among the triple vaccinated in England

On Thu, Apr 7, 2022 at 08:09 Harvey Organ <harveyorgan@gmail.com> wrote:

h

On Thu, Apr 7, 2022 at 7:35 AM Milan Sabioncello <sabioncello@gmail.com> wrote:

image.png

VACCINE IMPACT

Horror Show in Shanghai: Babies Taken from Parents to Quarantine Centers, Drones and Police Dogs Patrol Deserted Streets in China’s Largest City

April 6, 2022 4:59 pm

In early 2020, something happened that changed the course of the world and affected everyone’s life forever. And no, it was NOT the outbreak of a deadly new coronavirus. It was the fear over a deadly new virus that authorities in China used to convince over 50 million people in the Wuhan City area to voluntarily lock themselves down in response to that fear. The plan worked, perhaps better than anyone had ever imagined, and it became the blueprint for the rest of the world, as nearly every other country in the world followed suit and began to lock down their populations, and the world has never been the same since. Well don’t relax now and believe that the worst is now behind us, because it appears that COVID 2.0 has just been unleashed in China, as their largest city of 25 million people is now in their 10th day of lockdowns, all over an increase in new “cases” of people testing positive for COVID. And it appears that the medical tyrannical police state has only gotten worse, as babies and young children who are testing positive are being separated from their parents by force and put into quarantine hospitals, as people cooped up in their apartments and homes complain through their windows as drones fly overhead telling them to “Control your soul’s thirst for freedom” and close their windows. Is Shanghai the new test city for COVID 2.0 that is coming soon to a city near you? The last time I was in Shanghai was in 2007, and I was shocked this week to see film footage of familiar streets that are usually a massive sea of humanity with congested snarls of traffic be completely empty in the middle of the day. I could hardly believe what I was seeing.

Read More.

Read More…


Michael Every

Michael Every on the day’s major topics

Rabobank: The Fed’s Gloves Comes Off As China Throws In The Towel

THURSDAY, APR 07, 2022 – 09:25 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday’s Fed minutes showed the gloves are off. The FOMC was close to a 50bp hike last month, only the war stopped them, but it won’t stop them ahead. Moreover, QT starts in May at a pace of $60bn a month for Treasuries and $35bn for MBS. As Philip Marey puts it here, “The minutes show an FOMC that realizes it is far behind the curve and desperate to catch up. The Fed is now front-loading and likely to take big steps in tightening monetary policy at the May meeting. However, as the economic outlook is deteriorating they may already be too lateThe recent inversions of the yield curve suggest that this hiking cycle is going to end prematurely and could very well be followed by another recession.”

Former Fed president Dudley stated to CNBC that the FOMC needs to “inflict more losses” in stocks (and bonds) in order to rein in soaring inflation: “If stocks don’t fall, the Fed needs to force them.” Which at least shows us that Wall Street is indeed what the Fed sees as the actual economy. US 2-year yields managed to end down almost 13bp from their intraday highs and 4bp on the session at 2.47%, showing they seem to be pricing for the recession in advance; US 10s fell less intraday and closed the session higher at 2.60%.

By contrast, China threw in the towel“All departments should study contingency policy plans in response to changes in the situation and roll out measures conducive to the stability of market expectations in a timely way,” the cabinet said. That will mean rate cuts as the Fed is hiking: 16bp to go until US and Chinese bond yields sustainably cross-over, which could happen within this week given current daily volatility. As stock and bond flows into China have already dried up, how long can CNY then pretend it is not soft pegged to the dollar again? Yet a weaker CNY would be inflationary, hitting Chinese consumers and/or firms.

Yet Chinese stimulus will force the Fed to keep going. Beijing has two choices: follow academics arguing that ‘Revitalizing Consumption Remains a Major Challenge to the Chinese Economy’ and for giving out 1,000 digital CNY per person ($157) to spend within a limited period – the kind of stimulus that won’t solve structural problems, as we saw in the US, or make CNY more stable; or, as Bloomberg extolls, and is far more likely, to build more (unneeded) infrastructure, with a $2.2 trillion a plan laid out – and then watch global commodity prices soar.

Even if the Fed tightening cycle is nasty, brutish, and short, markets also have to deal with the Pentagon confirming the Hobbesian war in Ukraine could last for years: that means persistent supply-chain and supply-side disruption. To underline the point, US Secretary of State Blinken just stated: “What is success, what is victory? It’s holding on to the sovereignty and independence of their country. And there is no scenario by which over time that will not happen.” So, Ukraine will win –over time– despite nuclear-armed Russia seeing this as an existential battle it cannot lose.

On which, we just saw a further escalation in Western sanctions against Russia, with the likes of Sberbank and Alfa-Bank dragged in, the children of Putin and Lavrov targeted, and US investment into Russia banned; and Russia just had to pay sovereign debt in roubles as a result of existing dollar sanctions – but which in many ways is a gift to it. None of these measures will change the military dynamic on the ground in the direction Blinken wants. And the next major phase of fighting is expected to begin in around five days.

Indeed, Reuters quotes Benn Steil, international economics director for the Council on Foreign Relations think tank in New York, saying:

We are at the point where we have to take some pain. The initial batches of sanctions were crafted as much to not hurt us in the West as much as they were to hurt Russia.”

Yet is there any appetite for that in the US, alongside Fed hikes, ahead of November’s mid-term elections? Kid gloves, perhaps?

In the EU, the gloves are off… but against each other. MEP Guy Verhofstadt just vented: “You know why your strategy doesn’t work? Because progressive packages of sanctions with an autocrat doesn’t workThat works with a democracy, with democrats who have a public opinion, a real public opinion. In Russia, there is no longer a real public opinion.” He’s wrong: Russian public opinion broadly supports the war – but that actually makes his next point even stronger.

“The reality is it doesn’t work because the fifth package is, what, coalIt’s ridiculousThis is only 3% of imports from Russia. SWIFT, the ban, ridiculous. More than 50% of the financial institutions are still outside the banAnd the oligarchs,…will escape, finally, the sanctions, or lose a little bit of their money. You need to tackle the 6,000 people around Putin…

It’s time to change your strategy. It’s time to have an extra European Council as fast as possible, and to go for the full package of sanctions immediately, so that you can really make a difference. All the rest will not work. All the rest will prolong the war. [To Germany:] I expect leadership. Leading by example, and not dragging their feet as we see it today.”

As the EU talks about decoupling from Russian energy at its own pace —which is NOT how wars are fought— Reuters reports China’s SOE refineries, while honoring existing Russian oil contracts, are avoiding new ones despite steep discounts, to avoid being seen supporting Moscow; and as the US warns fellow Quad member India not to buy more Russian oil, India points out that when it followed sanctions against Iran, the US looked the other way while China consistently broke them “because markets”.

The time for muddling through is coming to an end. On rates, it’s true. On realpolitik, the demand is also for real action – and at a real cost. Just as money is no longer going to be completely free, neither are our geostrategic options. The logic is still either a full sanctions package –including energy– which will rock the economy and markets, or a prolonged war, which will rock the economy and markets. Gloves off, or towel thrown in, it ends up the same.

Indeed, time to take the gloves off or throw in the towel on all policies:

  • There are more warnings about the pressure global commodity trading houses are under given huge price increases, higher volatility, margin calls, and sanctions. If we see state aid there as a result, does it come with the same kind of overarching regulation it did in other sectors, especially at a time of geopolitical tensions and ‘commodities as weapons’?
  • On which, South Korea’s president-elect is asking for the US to return nuclear bombers and submarines to his country. So much for the peace attempts of his predecessor: and China will be thrilled.
  • Canada announced it is to ban foreign purchases of residential property for two years to try to keep a lid on already insane prices.
  • In a political stunt, Texas governor Abbot is apparently to bus illegal immigrants coming across the border from his state to Washington DC: which won’t be cheap with rising diesel prices.

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia////  NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0915 UP .0018 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

USA/ YEN 123.96   UP  0.241 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3084 UP   0.0015

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 46.73 PTS OR 1.42%

 Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 461.73 PTS OR 1.69%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  0.69%   // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 461.73 OR 0.73%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 46.73 PTS OR .1.42%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .69%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 461.73 PTS OR 1.69%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1931.50

silver:$24.49-

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 99.56  DOWN 4  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.59%  UP 2  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.238%  DOWN 0 AND 7/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.68%// UP 1   in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 2.34 UP 1    points in basis points yield ./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 105 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +0.674% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.67% AND NOW ABOVE   THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0902  UP .0005    or 5 basis points

USA/Japan: 123.86 UP .137 OR YEN DOWN 14  basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3058 DOWN 10  BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN 37 BASIS pts to 1.2601

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.3604  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.3623

TURKISH LIRA:  14.74  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.237

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4  IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at  2.639% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.691  UP 6 in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 99.67 UP 7   CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 46.01PTS OR 0.61%

German Dax :  CLOSED  DOWN 80.76 POINTS OR 0.57%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 45.29PTS OR 0.20% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 29.10PTS OR 0.34%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 161.76 PTS OR 0.66%

WTI Oil price 99.42   12: EST

Brent Oil:  94,74 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  78.88   UP 4 & 5/8 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.674

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0868 DOWN  .0028   OR down 28 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3067 down  .0002 or DOWN 2 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 123.99 up 0.271//YEN DOWN 27 PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2582 UP .0019 (CDN dollar DOWN 19 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 96,54

Brent OIL:  100.94

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.667 up 7 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.692  UP 6  pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.74

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA///USA/ ROUBLE:  79,74 DOWN  2 & 1/3 ROUBLES (ROUBLE UP 2 and 1/3 ROUBLES/USA )//

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 87.06 PTS OR 0.25%

NASDAQ 100 UP 32.93 PTS OR 0.23%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 21.51 DOWN 0.51 PTS (2.67%)

GLD: 180.34 UP 0.68 PTS OR 0.58%

SLV/ 22.70 UP .13 PTS OR 0.58%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Stocks & Oil Dump-n-Pump As Yield Curve Un-Inverts

BY TYLER DURDEN

THURSDAY, APR 07, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Stocks all bounced off technical levels intraday after an ugly start. Small Caps were unable to join the rest of their peers in the BTFD rebound into the green as a late day puke almost spoiled the party for everyone though…

What is it about 1300ET that the trend in shorts stalls or reverses?

Never gets old sorry…

S&P bounced back above its 200DMA and Dow/Nasdaq bounced off their 50DMAs…

Treasury yields were broadly higher today with the long-end underperforming (3Y unch, 30Y +6bps), leaving 2Y flat on the week and 10Y lagging with a 27bps increase…

Source: Bloomberg

Real rates continues to surge to cycle highs…

Source: Bloomberg

2s10s, 2s30s, 3s10s, and 5s30s all steepened today, uninverting intraday (which as a reminder is the actual trigger for the starting gun timer to recession…. as opposed to the actual inversion)….

Source: Bloomberg

Multiple factors steepened the yield curve today.

  • There have been big profits on selling the short-end and on Treasury curve flatteners. This has forced some short-covering.
  • Wednesday’s FOMC minutes brought forward the May 4 Fed meeting by a month and the discussions on the balance sheet were very detailed – taking almost all the mystery out of the event.
  • The aggressive runoff story is pressing the street to keep some risk premia in 2s10s and 5s30s, traders say.
  • The Fed has the yield curve in mind. Today, St Louis Fed James Bullard, a voter and the most hawkish Fed member said the Fed needs to hike 300 bps but also to watch yield curve inversion.

The short-end appears set on 9 more rate-hikes this year (but the last few days have seen the subsequent rate-cut trajectory actually reduced)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar extended its recent gains, hovering at the spike highs from March 16th’s FOMC day…

Source: Bloomberg

The Ruble continued to surge higher against the greenback, now at its highest in two months…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin slipped lower today but found support at $43,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold rallied on the day…

Oil prices tumbled along with stocks early on, but also like stocks they rebounded hard (though WTI remains below $100)…

Finally, the good news-ish, is that this new lower oil price will bring down gas prices at the pump (if it holds) but only to around the level it was at when Putin invaded Ukraine…

Source: Bloomberg

So what will Biden blame the still-high gas prices on then?

END

I) /MORNING TRADING/

This is big news:  Rubles breaks 80 and trading at 79.62 to the dollar early this morning.

“Rubble” Surges To 2-Month Highs Against Dollar As Russia Works To Reduce FX Volatility

THURSDAY, APR 07, 2022 – 10:40 AM

Having crashed to a record low of 121.5 per dollar shortly after the Ukraine war began – triggering memories of the battering it took during the 1998 Russian financial crisis – the Ruble was (for a brief period) the most potent symbol of the crushing blow that The West had struck against Russia’s economic fortunes.

Things were so bad that President Biden took to Twitter to mock the currency, saying that it had been reduced to “rubble”…

Two weeks later, things look a little different as the Russian currency has soared higher against the USDollar – now at its strongest against the greenback in two months…

There are numerous reasons for the rebound, including capital controls, but the main drivers appear to be Putin’s “Rubles for Gas” ultimatums and the fact that, as Mike Shedlock noted, the much-lauded sanctions against Russia are in fact “half-assed” and have done little to reduce inbound cashflows for energy and ag products.

Bloomberg reports Putin May Collect $321 Billion Windfall If Oil and Gas Keep Flowing

For all the hardships visited on consumers at home and the financial chokehold put on the government from abroad, Bloomberg Economics expects Russia will earn nearly $321 billion from energy exports this year, an increase of more than a third from 2021. It’s also on track for a record current-account surplus that the Institute of International Finance says may reach as high as $240 billion.

“The single biggest driver of Russia’s current account surplus continues to look solid,” IIF economists led by Robin Brooks said in a report. “With current sanctions in place, substantial inflows of hard currency into Russia look set to continue.”

The calculus may change completely, however, in case of an embargo on energy sales. And even without it, Russia’s oil exports and output are already falling, with the International Energy Agency predicting it may lose nearly a quarter of its crude production this month.

Despite the fact that sanctions don’t work, the US and EU keep trying even in the face of the ‘science’ of macroeconomics…

“A current-account surplus should actually be another source of stability for the ruble,” said Brendan McKenna, a strategist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC.

“If energy prices remain high and major importers of Russian energy and commodities continue to purchase, the current account should stay in surplus.”

Of course, due to the embarrassing nature of this resurgence going against the sanction-crushed-‘rubble’ narrative from Washington, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen quickly jumped into rubbish the market’s comeback here, claiming that the market for rubles has become so manipulated by actions of the Russian government and its central bank to limit capital outflows that “you should not infer anything” from the value of the ruble.

“As Russia’s economy and financial sector adapt to a new equilibrium of capital controls, managed prices, and economic autarky, it is not surprising that some of the domestic markets stabilize,” said Elina Ribakova and Benjamin Hilgenstock, economists at the Institute of International Finance.

“Sanctions have become a moving target and will require adjustments over time to remain effective.”

However, not everyone is buying the rebound as as positive sign:

“Don’t buy the peace rallies,” said Paul Domjan, a senior contributing analyst at Tellimer.

“Investors should be very cautious about market rallies following news about peace talks. There will be plenty of false dawns as the world valiantly seeks to end this war.”

However, all the time China, India (and much of Europe) is still buying Putin’s energy and ag products… no matter how loud the threats come from Washington, the Ruble will stave off the “rubble” narrative.

Additionally, Russian FinMin Anton Siluanov noted this morning that Russia will do everything to ensure its creditors receive debt payments, and is working on measures to reduce ruble volatility, make ruble exchange rate more predictable.

Good luck to them on a 300 basis pts rise in rates

(zerohedge)

Futures Slide After Bullard Sees Another 300bps In Rate Hikes

THURSDAY, APR 07, 2022 – 09:36 AM

Not a day seems to pass any more without some Fed speaker “surprising” markets with some uber-hawkish comment out of left field, and after Brainard on Tuesday, the FOMC Minutes (which laid out the details of the Fed’s $1 trillion a year balance sheet runoff) on Wednesday, this morning its was the turn of St Louis Fed President James Bullard – who as a reminder was the sole dissented in the latest FOMC meeting, demanding a 50bps hike instead of 25bps – who was of course hawkish, and in a speech titled Is the Fed behind the Curve? Two Interpretations“, said monetary policy benchmarks using “generous assumptions” suggest that the Fed may need to raise interest rates to about 3.5% to counter inflation that’s running far too high. In other words another 300-325 bps of hikes.

Bullard cited a version of the Taylor Rule  to come up with his estimate for how high rates should go.

“One concludes that the current policy rate is too low by about 300 basis points, according to this calculation,” Bullard said Thursday in prepared remarks at the University of Missouri. That could suggest, by that measure, the Fed is “behind the curve,” he said, pointing out what has been patently obvious for a long, long time to anyone… but the Fed.

The Fed raised its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points last month to a target range of 0.25% to 0.5%. Meanwhile inflation is at 8% and about to hit double digits. The last time inflation was here, the Fed’s overnight rate was over 12%.

It is unclear if the Fed will be able to hike to 3.5% before the economic implodes, but Bullard will certainly get his wish for one or more 50bps rate hikes on the way there. Yesterday’s FOMC minutes revealed that “many” officials had been of the same mind and only opted for the smaller increase out of caution in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The minutes also showed that many of them also noted that one or more half-point hikes could be appropriate going forward to counter the hottest inflation in four decades.

Markets have already incorporated Fed tightening into their pricing, with the 2-year Treasury yield trading at around 2.45%, or 1 percentage point below what might be needed, Bullard said. It has also led to a yield curve inversion suggesting the next recession is coming.

“This suggests the Fed is not as far ‘behind the curve,’ although it would  still have to raise the policy rate to ratify the forward guidance,”  Bullard said, whistling past the graveyard and ignoring the elephant in the room, namely that as shown in the chart below, the Fed will hike to just over 3% before the next recession hits in late 2023 and the Fed has to start cutting again.

Bullard said he expects growth of “a slower but still robust 2.8% pace in 2022,” despite a weak first quarter and impact from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He said the unemployment rate may fall below 3% this year.

“The expansion is not ‘old’ and can continue for a long time,” he said, clearly disagreeing with Morgan Stanley which is warning that we have as little as 5 months left in the end-cycle before the next recession

And while the market knows better than to listen to Bullard – or anyone else from the Fed – it had no choice, and the latest round of hawkish commentary pushed S&P futures near session lows and back to red for the day.

AFTERNOON

END

II)USA data

Initial Jobless Claims Crash To 2nd Lowest Level On Record (55 Years)

THURSDAY, APR 07, 2022 – 08:36 AM

Last week saw just 166k Americans file for first time jobless benefits – that is the lowest level since the week after Thanksgiving in 1968 (which is typically a seasonal dip)…

Source: Bloomberg

..and apart from that one print, the labor market has never been tighter (according to the Labor Department’s claims data) in its 55 year history.

New York, DC, and Arkansas saw the biggest falls in claims while Tennessee, Hawaii, and Wisonsin saw the biggest increase…

On the other hand, continuing jobless claims spiked last week from 1.506mm (lowest since Jan 1970) to 1.523mm

Notably this new series includes massive historical revisions…

But still, that doesn’t affect the latest record low print.

Get back to work Mr.Powell (oh and while we are at it, Mr.Schumer, why do we need to extend the moratorium on student loan repayment if everything is this awesome?)

end

Shocking Consumer Credit Numbers: Credit Card Debt Soars With Savings Long Gone

BY TYLER DURDEN

THURSDAY, APR 07, 2022 – 03:21 PM

While it is traditionally viewed as a B-grade indicator, the February consumer credit report from the Federal Reserve was an absolute stunner and confirmed what we have been saying for month: any excess savings accumulated by the US middle class are long gone, and in their place Americans have unleashed a credit-card fueled spending spree.

Here are the shocking numbers: in November, consumer credit exploded by a whopping $41.8 billion, more than double the expected $18.1 billion print, nearly five times more than the upward revised $8.9 billion January number (revised from $6.8 billion), and the highest on record!

And while non-revolving credit (student and car loans) surged by a near record 23.8 billion, the third highest on record…

… the real stunner was revolving, or credit card debt, which soared nearly six-fold February to $18 billion from $3.1 billion in January, the second highest print on record, just in time for those credit card APR to starting moving higher, first slowly and then fast.

While this unprecedented rush to buy everything on credit at a time when there were no notable Hallmark holidays should not come as much of a surprise, after all we have repeatedly shown that for the middle class any “excess savings” are now gone, long gone

… the fact is that most economists – such as those at Goldman Sachs – had previously anticipated that continued spending of savings by consumers (who they fail to realize are now tapped out) is what will keep the US economy levitating in 2022. Unfortunately, as today’s consumer credit numbers clearly demonstrate, any savings that US middle class households may have stored away courtesy of stimmies, are now gone. The implications are profound: any model that projected that US spending will be fueled by “savings” can now be trashed. And since this is most of them, the consequences are dire as they confirm – once again – that the Fed is tapering, QTing and hiking right into a recession, which according to Deutsche Bank will begin in late 2023 and which according to Morgan Stanley can start in as little as 5 months. Today’s data suggests that Morgan Stanley is right…

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

end

end

iiia) USA inflation//SHIPPING commentaries//LOG JAMS//

USA Jet fuel!

as discussed yesterday Jet fuel inventories are sinking to a 17 yr low.  This will cause ticket prices to skyrocket

(zerohedge)

US Jet-Fuel Inventories Sink To 17 Year Low As Soaring Costs May Spark Ticket Inflation

THURSDAY, APR 07, 2022 – 07:00 AM

US jet-fuel inventories have fallen to a seventeen-year low. More troubling is that jet-fuel inventories for the US East Coast (PADD 1) have fallen to a 25-year low. Tight fuel supplies ahead of a traditionally busy travel season may suggest ticket prices could jump. 

US jet-fuel inventories are well below average. 

US East Coast PADD 1 Jet-Fuel Inventory Hits 25-Year Low 

On the other hand, Jet-fuel prices (now at a record-high) have risen more than 162% since mid-March, mainly on energy supply disruptions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions. 

What this may suggest is that tight fuel supplies plus soaring travel demand could force airlines to boost ticket prices. Although the correlation between jet-fuel inventories at PADD 1 and US CPI airfare isn’t clean, it at least allows some understanding that airlines could soon pass along fuel costs to consumers with higher airfare.  

“The consumer will see an impact in fares. There’s no question about it. Or they will see airlines cut back on flights,” Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, told CNN.

With Memorial Day holiday weekend (one of the busiest travel times of the year) less than two months away, consumers could be greeted with rising ticket prices, and those who drive will be greeted with record-high gasoline and diesel prices. On top of this, consumers are getting hit with record-high food inflation. It’s only a matter of time before consumers go on strike. 

iiib) USA economic stories

Seems that Biden’s days as President are numbered

(Watson/SummitNews)

Tucker Carlson: “Like A Pack Of Wild Dogs, Democrats Have Decided To Kill Off Weak Biden”

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 05:00 PM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Fox News host Tucker Carlson noted that footage of Joe Biden wandering around the White House on his own as the rest of his handlers and Democratic underlings fawn before a visiting Barack Obama is a perfect visualisation of what the future holds.

After playing the footage, Carlson pointed out that “no one in Washington thinks the Biden presidency is glorious anymore. They think it’s a disaster. Polls show that voters strongly agree. Joe Biden is now the most unpopular person in virtually any room he enters.”

Carlson described the scene at the White House, noting that “Biden tried to horn in on the conversation swirling around Obama. Everyone involved in that conversation, including Kamala Harris, who supposedly works for Biden, ignored Biden completely.”

He continued, “Biden desperately tried to get Obama’s attention. He puts his hand on Obama’s shoulder. He even calls him “Barack” like they’re friends, but Obama blows him off. He acts like Biden is not even there. Ask yourself if you have ever in your life, seen anything sadder than that?”

The host then pointed out that Obama for years maligned Biden, kept him on the periphery and “mocked him relentlessly as an old White guy.”

Carlson compared Biden’s abandonment to a pack of dogs leaving behind an old weak member, declaring “it’s nothing personal. It’s a matter of group survival and that’s exactly how the Democratic Party operates.”

He continued, “Individuals are irrelevant to the party. The group is all that matters. No one at the DNC actually cares about Joe Biden or ever has.”

“On some level, Joe Biden knows this. He’s spent his life in the Democratic Party. He’s never worked outside of the Democratic Party, so he understands how this ends. Inevitably, after 50 years, it is his turn to be eliminated,” Carlson explained, adding “they’ve decided to replace Joe Biden, period, but how will they do it and who will they replace him with? That’s what we don’t know. “

END

Ketanji Brown Jackson Confirmed To Supreme Court

THURSDAY, APR 07, 2022 – 02:27 PM

After weeks of private meetings and days of public testimony, Ketanji Brown Jackson was confirmed to the US Supreme Court on Thursday, becoming the first black woman to join the panel, just as President Joe Biden promised.

Jackson, who currently serves on the US court of appeals for the DC Circuit, will become the 116th Supreme Court Justice in US History after Justice Stephen Breyer retires in a few months.

In a 53-47 vote, the 51-year-old federal judge whose record of going soft on pedophiles secured the backing of all 50 Senate Democrats, and three Republicans – Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Mitt Romney – the latter of whom rejected Brown’s appointment to the federal circuit, only to change his opinion after the pedophile malarkey came out.

Shortly before the final vote, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced she was a “yes” on Jackson, marking the 50th Democrat to get on board.

“Judge Jackson brings to the bench a wealth of knowledge, more trial court experience than all other current supreme court justices combined, a commitment to respect precedent, and a proven independent, pragmatic approach to judicial decisions,” said Sinema.

As Bloomberg notes, “President Joe Biden watched the vote with Jackson, his first Supreme Court pick, in the Roosevelt Room at the White House. Vice President Kamala Harris presided over the vote and her husband, Doug Emhoff watched from the gallery. Jackson, a Harvard Law School graduate and former public defender who the Senate confirmed last year to the powerful U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, will join the high court when Justice Stephen Breyer retires in June or July. She will be the court’s 116th justice, its sixth woman and the eighth justice who isn’t a white male.”

Jackson won’t be sworn in immediately, as Justice Stephen Breyer will need to first retire sometime this summer.

iv)swamp stories

450GB Of ‘Deleted’ Hunter Biden Laptop Material To Be Released Within Weeks

WEDNESDAY, APR 06, 2022 – 06:20 PM

A whistleblower who’s fled the United States for Switzerland has vowed to drop ‘450 gigabytes of deleted material‘ from Hunter Biden’s abandoned laptop, which he says he also gave the the Washington Post, New York Times, and Sen. Chuck Grassley – all of whom he says sat on it for months.

For the past two weeks, former Steve Bannon War Room co-host Jack Maxey has been hiding in Zurich, where he told the Daily Mail he’s been working with IT experts to dig more data from Hunter’s ‘laptop from hell,’ and that he’ll post it all online in a searchable database in the coming weeks.

Maxey says the data includes 80,000 images and videos, and more than 120,000 archived emails.

“I came here so that we could do a forensic examination of Hunter’s laptop safely in a country that still respects human liberty and the ideals of liberal democratic principles,” he told the Mail. “I do not believe this would have been possible inside the United States. We had numerous attempts on us from trying to do things like this there.”

Maxey said that after contacting DailyMail.com about the laptop last year, black suburban SUVs appeared outside his house, and former US intelligence officer friends he shared copies with told him they received strange calls.

‘I showed this to a friend of mine in desperation in February [2021] because nobody would listen to me. No news organizations would take it. In fact, the very first major news organization to take it was the Daily Mail,’ he said.

Very dear friends of mine, the sharp tip of the spear, were making welfare calls to me every day, basically to see if I was still alive.‘ -Daily Mail

One former intelligence agency senior staffer allegedly told Maxey after he received the hard drive two years ago “If you don’t release enough of this, so that they know you can release all of it, I’m telling you brother, you’re a dead man.”

After receiving this advice, he began posting caches of emails and other material from the laptop on various file sharing sites – only to find the links removed within an hour.

“There were five drop boxes: two in the United States, one in New Zealand, two in the UK. All the same drop boxes in which they tell us child pornography is shared around the globe without any consequence because they can’t look at it,” he said, adding: “These are all Five Eyes countries, English speaking countries in an intelligence sharing agreement. And they were all ripped down.”

“​​So this means that our intelligence services, who still have not even acknowledged that they have Hunter Biden’s laptop, were obviously diligently doing cache searches across the internet to find out if any of this stuff was being released. That should terrify every single decent person in the West.”

According to Maxey, he went to Switzerland because they are home to the only file sharing site that didn’t nuke the laptop files – Swiss Transfer.

The former Bannon podcast co-host said he is livid at the FBI, who he believes slow-walked their investigation into Hunter and failed to enter the laptop they received from Mac Isaac into evidence for months.

According to the New York Times, files from the laptop are now part of the evidence in Hunter’s federal prosecution for alleged tax fraud, money laundering and illegal foreign lobbying.

Among the files on the laptop are a raft of emails and documents showing Hunter’s dealings with Burisma, a Ukrainian gas firm that became the center of Trump’s first impeachment in December 2019.

The then-president was accused of pushing Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to announce investigations into the Bidens and Burisma for alleged corruption. -Daily Mail

“The FBI had this on the ninth of December 2019,” said Maxey. “‘I suppose the first person betrayed was a sitting US president in an impeachment hearing, when the FBI had the exculpatory evidence in their hands to have that end instantly, and they did nothing.”

“The second group of people to be betrayed were all of the Democratic candidates in the spring primaries that year,” he continued. “The American people were utterly betrayed, because I guarantee you that Joe Biden couldn’t run for dog catcher if the American people knew about this laptop.”

Read the rest of the report here.

END

‘Absolutely Frightening’: Hunter Biden Laptop Whistleblower Reveals What’s in ‘450 GB of Erased Material’ – Becker News

Inbox

Robert Hryniak12:53 PM (11 minutes ago)
to

It will come out..

The King Report (including swamp stories)

FOMC Minutes from March 15-16 Meeting Highlights per Bloomberg
$95 Bln/month cap for asset runoff likely appropriate (Market expected 85B to 100B)
FOMC backs roll off-cap phase-in of 3 months or modestly lower
Many Fed officials say 1 or more 50-bps hike may be warranted
“A decision to implement a program of agency MBS sales would be announced well in advance.”
 
ESMs rescinded the Minutes rally by 14:08 ET.  ESMs were back near the lows two minutes later.  Minutes later, ESMs collapsed to a new session low.  The DJTA hit -4.05%.  ESMs bottomed at 14:18 ET.  They then jumped 36 handles in 16 minutes.
 
USMs commenced a rally at 9:48 ET; it ended at 10:02 ET.  Did retail and lemmings (‘dumb money’) buy bonds and stocks early in the US session?  USMs vacillated in a wide range from 6 ET until they broke out of the range to the upside after Europe closed.  ESMs remained dormant while bonds rallied.
 
USMs spiked 3/4 higher on the FOMC Minutes release.  Most of the rally was rescinded by 13:09 ET.  Five minutes later, USM were negative from the start of the rally.  USMs rallied a tad while EMS soared after 14:18 ET.  USMs broke lower at 14:37 ET.  The ESM rally ended.  ESMs and USM then went inert.
 
ESMs and stocks started a rally at 14:53 ET on the need to markup positions during the final hour.  The USM rally halted at 15:00 ET; the ESMs rally continued – you know why!  By 15:02 ET, ESMs were 55 handles above the low made at 14:18 ET.  But ESMs then sank 23 handles in 23 minutes.  At 15:45 ET, another upward manipulation appeared.  It ended at 15:48 ET; ESMs fell into the close.
 
 
@lisaabramowicz1: Rates on 30-year U.S. mortgages are rising at the fastest pace since 2003. https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1511714226280280072
 
Vanguard’s MBS ETF hit its lowest level since April 2011.  The MBS market has cratered since yearend.
 
Joe Carson: Curve Inversion at Low Levels of Interest Rates Is Problematic for the Fed & Finance Not the Economy – the yield curve inversion has occurred at a relatively low level of interest rates, far too low to slow final demand and squash inflation pressuresA record gap exists between Nominal GDP growth of 10% in the past year and the current fed funds of .5%. There is even a record spread between Nominal GDP and two and ten-year yields of around 2.5%…
    Past experiences dealing with cyclical inflation pressures tell the Fed that it needs to increase the cost of credit to slow final demand before it can successfully dampen inflation pressures…
https://www.thecarsonreport.com/post/curve-inversion-at-low-levels-of-interest-rates-is-problematic-for-the-fed-finance-not-the-economy
 
Ex-NY Fed President Dudley: If Stocks Don’t Fall, the Fed Needs to Force Them
Tightening financial conditions will be key to getting inflation under control.
    This is central to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s thinking about the transmission of monetary policy. As he put it in his March press conference: “Policy works through financial conditions. That’s how it reaches the real economy.”… the U.S. economy doesn’t respond directly to the level of short-term interest rates. Most home borrowers aren’t affected, because they have long-term, fixed-rate mortgages… Equity prices influence how wealthy they feel, and how willing they are to spend rather than save…
        The Fed will have to shock markets to achieve the desired response.  This would mean hiking the federal funds rate considerably higher than currently anticipated. One way or another, to get inflation under control, the Fed will need to push bond yields higher and stock prices lower.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/if-stocks-don-t-fall-the-fed-needs-to-force-them
 
Dudley, ex-GS chief economist, inadvertently reveals that the Fed believes the stock market is a, if not ‘the’, key factor in driving the economy.  This means the Fed is overly focused on and sensitive to stocks.  Does this mean the Fed orchestrated rallies and rescue operations to save stocks when they have tumbled?
 
No wonder so many Fed officials, staffers, and subordinates bought and traded stocks.  Everyone on the inside knew that the Fed wanted to drive stocks higher!
 
Just days ago, we published a chart that shows the S&P 500 Index has soared a multiple more than US Nominal GDP.  Once again, we have the Fed and a NYC Street guy with stock market centric views.  Before the ‘90s, it was believed that the stock market reflected the economy.  Then, elites adopted the view that the stock market was a generator of economic activity.  ‘Tis why the Fed has engineered several bubbles in the past 25 years. 
 
It is always why from Easy Al to Wrongway Powell, Fed CEOs and officials have mendaciously pleaded that the Fed cannot recognize bubbles and even if they did, they were helpless to halt them.  All they could do was pick up the pieces after the bubble burst.  This, of course, meant pump more credit and create another bubble. This is how, girls & boys, the Fed created the greatest concentration of wealth & income in US history.
 
Richmond Fed President Barkin risibly stated on Wednesday that US inflation expectations seem to have stayed stable.  If this guy is so oblivious to reality, or so mendacious, he should not be a Fed President.
 
Philadelphia Fed President Harker said his neutral rate is around 2.5%, which is about the 2-yr yield now.  This leads credence to historical relationship of the 2-year note and the Fed Funds rate.
 
In an epic display of hypocrisy, US Treasury Secretary Yellen whined that the ruble (because of its titanic rebound) is not being ‘freely set by the market’.  Yeah, US bonds, interest rates, and stocks are freely set by the market, right Janet?  Yellen also warned that China would face sanctions if it invaded Taiwan.  Is warning China the purview of a Treasury Secretary?  We all know The Big Guy isn’t in charge, but….
 
The idiotic Yellen wasn’t finished spewing nonsense and inanities.
 
@RNCResearch: Biden Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen repeats what she said last year: the U.S. will only be “safe” when there is zero COVID.  “As long as the pandemic is raging in any part of the world, the United States is not safe…”  (Flu appears every year; so, do colds and other Asian viruses.)
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1511776450302595078
 
Caixin’s March China Services PMI sank to 42 from 50.2.  The Composite PMI fell to 43.9 from 50.1.

Big Pharma Advertising Dollars Are at an All-Time High ($6.88B)
By law, drug ads must not be false or misleading, must present a “fair balance” of information describing both the risks and benefits of a drug, must include facts that are “material” to the product’s advertised uses, and must include a “brief summary” that mentions every risk described in the product’s labeling. Few if any ads for the COVID jab have fulfilled these requirements… (Where is Congress?)
https://media.mercola.com/ImageServer/Public/2022/April/PDF/big-pharma-advertising-at-all-time-high-pdf.pdf
 
Kamala’s mask slips: Shocking images show VP and school principal MASKLESS as kids are forced to wear face coverings at Washington DC school – Ted Cruz leads Republicans tearing into VP’s ‘rules for thee but not for me’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10685975/Rules-thee-not-GOP-criticizes-VP-going-maskless-school-kids-masked.html
 
@CBSNews: Michael Lewis discusses his book “The Premonition” which analyzes the CDC’s role in handling COVID-19 and details a group of doctors that predicted the pandemic.  “The people who were genuinely expert, didn’t really get in the room when the decisions were being made.”
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1511781872615018504
 
Milley’s new Ukraine war prediction is stark departure from early forecast of ’72 hour’ takeover
Gen. (Woke) Milley predicted Kyiv would fall in ’72 hours
    Milley delivered the dire prediction for Ukraine to Congress during closed hearings on Feb. 2 and Feb. 3, saying Ukraine would likely lose 15,000 troops compared to Russia’s 4,000. Milley arrived to Congress to deliver another prediction Tuesday, this time saying the war in Ukraine could last “years.”..
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mark-milley-ukraine-war-prediction-fall-72-hours
 
@MZHemingway: Federal Judge Finds J6 Defendant Not Guilty, Nuking DOJ Charges That Walking Through an Open Door Is a Crime… defendant “reasonably believed” he had permission to be in the Capitol… He also said that video evidence shows that “quiet” and “orderly” Martin was merely a “silent observer”… (Compare to Antifa and BLM rioters!)
https://thefederalist.com/2022/04/06/federal-judge-finds-j6-defendant-not-guilty-nuking-doj-charges-that-walking-through-an-open-door-is-a-crime/
 
@julie_kelly2: What’s notable in this trial isn’t so much that Martin convinced McFadden he was waved into the building but that a USCP official CONFIRMED under oath that police let people inside.
 
Today – The trend is down for bonds and stocks.  Hard-headed and conditioned traders, including retail and lemmings, will continue to buy equities and dips in equities.  Someone will still try to markup ESMs and equities.  But. it’s a different world now. 
 
Stocks are now more tied to bonds than in years.  However, at some point, the asset allocation of buying bonds while selling stocks should appear.  ESMs are -13.75 at 20:10 ET; USMs are +10/32. 
 
Expected econ data: Initial Jobless Claims 220k, Continuing Claims 1.302m; Feb Consumer Credit $18.1B; StL. Fed Pres Bullard 9 ET, Fed Presidents Boskin & Evans 14 ET on Inclusive Employment
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4421; 100-day MA: 4538; 150-day MA: 4522; 200-day MA: 4490
DJIA 50-day MA: 34,361; 100-day MA: 35,006; 150-day MA: 35,035; 200-day MA: 35,011
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4153.02 triggers a sell signal
HourlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4547.45 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4469.69 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4531.55 triggers a buy signal
 
When Trump was POTUS, the MSM framed every local election as a ‘referendum on Trump’.  Now, the MSM is mum because the GOP is crushing Dems in many local elections.  On Tuesday, the GOP scored big in Wisconsin in all locales.  Kenosha elected a GOP Mayor for the first time in over 60 years.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/kenosha-county-flips-red-democratic-leadership
 
Whistleblower who handed Hunter’s abandoned laptop to congressmen and DailyMail.com reveals he has 450 gigabytes of DELETED material including 80,000 images and videos – and has fled to Switzerland fearing retaliation from White House – Whistleblower Jack Maxey gave DailyMail.com a copy of the hard drive from Hunter Biden’s abandoned laptop in the spring of 2021…For the past two weeks, Maxey has been in hiding in Zurich, Switzerland, working with IT experts to dig out more data from the ‘laptop from hell’…He also gave copies and material from it to the Washington Post, New York Times, and Senator Chuck Grassley in his role as ranking Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee – but he claims they all sat on it for months…our intelligence services, who still have not even acknowledged that they have Hunter Biden’s laptop, were obviously diligently doing cache searches across the internet to find out if any of this stuff was being released. That should terrify every single decent person in the West.”…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10689445/Whistleblower-handed-Hunter-Bidens-laptop-congressmen-fled-Switzerland.html
 
GOP demands (51) ‘experts’ who dismissed Hunter Biden laptop fess up — or face subpoenas
https://nypost.com/2022/04/06/gop-demands-experts-who-dismissed-hunter-biden-laptop-fess-up/
 
@Charliespiering: Biden diverts from speech to unions to express anger…: “I’m sure you’ve seen the pictures… bodies left in streets… civilians executed in cold blood, bodies dumped in mass graves.”
 
@mirandadevine: What? Joe Biden in a speech in DC to unionists about new Russian sanctions just said: “By the way, If I’ve got to go to war, I’m going with you guys”. (Psaki later clarified the remark)
 
@townhallcom: BIDEN: “To try to unify the country, that’s been the hardest thing so far. Not a joke…You ultimately have to unify, as angry as I sometimes get.” (Not a SNL skit!)
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1511758869629915139
 
Joe slurred words badly at times: https://twitter.com/Kevin__McMahon/status/1511755002829811720
 
The Big Guy said the US will ‘stifle Russian economic growth for years to come’.  It is an economic war.
 
US targets Putin’s daughters with sanctions after evidence of atrocities in Ukraine surfaces (WHY?)
Mariya Putina and Katerina Tinkonova will lose access to US assets and finances
https://www.foxnews.com/world/russia-sanctions-putins-daughters-asset-freezes
 
Biden wrote college recommendation letter for son of Hunter’s Chinese business partner, emails reveal – Biden’s recommendation letter for Chinese executive’s son was sent directly to Brown’s president, email says… The president has repeatedly denied discussing Hunter’s business ventures with his son…  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-brown-university-hunter-chinese-business-partner-emails
 
@greg_price11: Doocy: “There’s evidence that Biden was once office mates with Hunter and his brother Jim.”  Psaki: “That is not accurate.” Doocy: “So when Hunter Biden is emailing a landlord ‘please have keys made for office mates Joe Biden and Jim Biden.”  Psaki: “They were not office mates.”
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1511791992371568645
 
Durham evidence creates timeline of relentless Democrat effort to sell Russia collusion hoax
Special prosecutor lays out how Clinton campaign, lawyers, researchers and activists flooded government with allegations, hoping some might stick.
    Special Counsel John Durham is painting a picture of a relentless effort by Democrat operatives to sell the Russia collusion narrative across the U.S. government from the FBI to the State Department…
https://justthenews.com/accountability/russia-and-ukraine-scandals/durham-evidence-creates-timeline-relentless-democrat
 
Portland Air National Guard Unit Is First to Test Out Robot Dog for Base Security
(Portended by Fahrenheit 451 in 1953, which was otherwise a terrific year!)
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/04/05/portland-air-national-guard-unit-first-test-out-robot-dog-base-security.html
 
In Ray Bradbury’s novel, Fahrenheit 451, the Mechanical Hound is an eight-legged robotic “dog” used to track down fugitives like the protagonist Montag. It represents the misuse of governmental authority and the corruption of technology….Bradbury’s work depicts a fictional dystopian society
https://thesciencesurvey.com/news/2021/04/22/digidog-the-future-of-surveillance/
 
@ChrisStigall: This is – without peer – the most humiliating, emasculating thing I’ve ever watched.  Obama and Harris literally ignore Joe Biden at the White House.  It’s not that we don’t understand Biden is weak and was never in charge.  This is just the painful, visual proof. (PS – no masks!)
https://twitter.com/ChrisStigall/status/1511546291842699270
 
Tucker Carlson: ‘Like A Pack of Wild Dogs, Democrats Have Decided to Kill Off Weak Biden’
Fox News host Tucker Carlson noted that footage of Joe Biden wandering around the White House on his own as the rest of his handlers and Democratic underlings fawn before a visiting Barack Obama is a perfect visualisation of what the future holds… Carlson pointed out that “no one in Washington thinks the Biden presidency is glorious anymore. They think it’s a disaster. Polls show that voters strongly agree. Joe Biden is now the most unpopular person in virtually any room he enters.”…
    “Biden desperately tried to get Obama’s attention. He puts his hand on Obama’s shoulder… but Obama blows him off. He acts like Biden is not even there. Ask yourself if you have ever in your life, seen anything sadder than that?”  The host then pointed out that Obama for years maligned Biden, kept him on the periphery and “mocked him relentlessly as an old White guy.”…
https://summit.news/2022/04/06/tucker-carlson-like-a-pack-of-wild-dogs-democrats-have-decided-to-kill-off-weak-biden/
 
@DanODonnellShow: 97 percent of precincts in the City of Milwaukee are reporting 36 minutes after the polls closed. It’s amazing how quickly those votes can get counted when there isn’t a statewide race in which Democrats need a big turnout in Milwaukee to win, isn’t it?
 
California introduces new bill that would allow mothers to kill their babies up to 7 days after birth
https://miamistandard.news/2022/03/24/california-introduces-new-bill-that-would-allow-mothers-to-kill-their-babies-up-to-7-days-after-birth/
 
Planned Parenthood unveils sponsored bill package + Bill shields mothers from criminal charges
A person shall not be subject to civil or criminal liability with respect to… perinatal death. It’s the “perinatal death” part that critics are focusing on. While the bill doesn’t define “perinatal,” the term generally applies to the period from approximately past 22 or 28 completed weeks of pregnancy up to seven completed days of life, according to an Assembly Judiciary Committee analysis of the bill…
https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article260105090.html#storylink=cpy
 
@davidharsanyi: I love when people mention the Red Scare as if it was a wholly imagined event. Soviet records show there were over 220 people in the US federal government working for Russia by the 1940s. The Venona project found over 320. Many of them in powerful positions.
 
The Venona Secrets: Exposing Soviet Espionage and America’s Traitor
In 1995 the Venona documents—secret Soviet cable traffic from the 1940s that the United States intercepted and eventually decrypted—finally became available to American historians…
    New information that links Albert Einstein to Soviet intelligence and conclusive evidence showing that J. Robert Oppenheimer gave Moscow our atomic secrets… the Venona documents confirm the controversial revelations made in the 1940s by former Soviet agents Whittaker Chambers and Elizabeth Bentley; The role of the American Communist Party in supporting and directing Soviet agents; How Stalin’s paranoia had him target Jews (code-named “Rats”) and Trotskyites—even after Trotsky’s death; How the Soviets penetrated America’s own intelligence services…
https://www.iwp.edu/books/the-venona-secrets-exposing-soviet-espionage-and-americas-traitors/
 
Venona: Decoding Soviet Espionage in America altered our view on FDR, Joe McCarthy, the MSM, etc.
 
NYC Major Crime Up 36.5% as Adams Tries to Curb Shooting Spike
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-06/nyc-major-crime-up-36-5-as-adams-tries-to-curb-shooting-spike
 
Brookfield Properties Turns Over Water Tower Place Mall in Downtown Chicago to Lender
Today, nearly a quarter of all of Chicago’s Magnificent Mile retail space is vacant, more than double its vacancy four years ago, according to Crain’s.  (Due to unabated crime!)
https://rebusinessonline.com/brookfield-properties-turns-over-water-tower-place-mall-in-downtown-chicago-to-lender/

Let us close with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter interviewing  

See you FRIDAY

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