DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

comex notices/

: JPMorgan stopped/total issued 48/134

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,972.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/12/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 04/14/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

072 C GOLDMAN 5
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 8
132 C SG AMERICAS 16
167 C MAREX 1
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 3
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 2
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 10
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 8
661 C JP MORGAN 125 48
709 C BARCLAYS 21
737 C ADVANTAGE 1
880 H CITIGROUP 20

TOTAL: 134 134
MONTH TO DATE: 24,499

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR APRIL. CONTRACT134 NOTICE(S) FOR 13400 OZ (0.4167 TONNES)

total notices so far: 24,499 contracts for 2,449,900 oz (76.202 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

10 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 50,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 1080 : for 5,400,000 oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $8.80

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.10 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 27 CENTS

AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 565.521 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 3868 CONTRACTS TO 158,813 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUGE GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG $0.66 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.66) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 9765 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4.305 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 105,000 OZ//NEW STANDING: 5.560 MILLION OZ// V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS : —-859 (which is huge)

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS APRIL. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL:

TOTAL CONTACTS for 9 days, total 7216 contracts: 36.08 million oz OR 4.00MILLION OZ PER DAY. (801 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 7216 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 36.08 MILLION OZ

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 36.08 MILLION OZ (LOOKS LIKE OUR BANKERS ARE NOW LOATHE TO ISSUE EFP’S)

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3868 WITH OUR STRONG $0.66 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 2195 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR. OF 4.305 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 105,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING: 5.5600 MILLION OZ/// .. WE HAD AN HUGE SIZED GAIN 6063 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 34.61 MILLION OZ WITH THE VERY STRONG GAIN IN PRICE.

WE HAD 10 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 50,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6844 CONTRACTS TO 577,639 AND CLOSER TO NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -31 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR VERY STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $26.95//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY /.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL AT 78.33 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $26.95 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 9734 OI CONTRACTS (30.273 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2890 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 577,639.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9734, WITH 6844 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2890 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9765 CONTRACTS OR 30.73 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2890) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (6844,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 9734 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 78.33 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 16,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 81.225 TONNES/// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ///. ,4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI. GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

APRIL

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :

22,087 CONTRACTS OR 2,208,700 OR 68.69 TONNES 9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2454 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 68.69TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 68.69/3550 x 100% TONNES 1.94% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 68.69 TONNES (THIS IS GOING TO BE A LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAY.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 3868 CONTRACTS TO 158,813 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 2195 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY 2195 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 3868 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2195 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 6063 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 30.315 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN OF $0.66 IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.51 PTS OR 0.82% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 55.24 PTS OR 0.26% /The Nikkei closed UP 508.51 PTS OR 1.83% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .47% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 6.3665 /Oil UP TO 97.25 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 102.75 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED EXCEPT SPAIN // ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3665 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3772: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER//

A)NORTH KOREA/

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6844 CONTRACTS TO 577,639 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS STRONG COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR VERY STRONG GAIN OF $26.95 IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2890 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2890 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 JUNE :2890 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2890 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 9734 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2890 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 6844 CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN OCCURRED WITH OUR VERY STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF GOLD $26.95.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL (81.225),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 81.225

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE $26.95) AND AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAVE REGISTERED A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 30.273 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL (81.225 TONNES)…

WE HAD — 31 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 9734 CONTRACTS OR 973400 OZ OR 30.273 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 132,741/// extremely poor

Confirmed volume yesterday: 188,023 contracts poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR APRIL ’22 COMEX GOLD //APRIL 13

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	964.53OZ 30 kilobars
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil
No of oz served (contracts) today	134 notice(s) 13400 OZ 0.4167 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	1615 contracts 161500 oz 5.023 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	24,499 notices 2,449900 OZ 76.202 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

For today:

dealer deposits 1

i)) Into Manfra; 964.53 oz (30 kilobars)

total dealer deposit 964.30 oz//

No dealer withdrawals

0 customer deposits.

total customer deposit nil oz

0 customer withdrawals

total customer withdrawal: nil oz /

ADJUSTMENTS: nil

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL.

For the front month of APRIL we have an oi of 1749 contracts having LOST 256.

We had 424 notices filed yesterday so we GAINED 168 contracts or an additional 16,800 oz will stand for delivery at the comex

May saw a LOSS of 138 contracts to stand at 3505

June saw a GAIN of 4110 contracts UP to 480,073 contracts

We had 134 notice(s) filed today for 13,400 oz FOR THE APRIL 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 125 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 134 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 48 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 5 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2021. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (24,499) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (APRIL 1749 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 134 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,611,400 OZ OR 81.225 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of APRIL.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:

No of notices filed so far (24,499) x 100 oz+ (1749) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (134} x 100 oz} which equals 2,611,400 oz standing OR 81.225 TONNES in this active delivery month of APRIL.

We GAINED 16,800 oz as a QUEUE. jump as our banker friends scrounge around for some gold

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 81.225 TONNES (A WHOPPER FOR AN APRIL ( ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

191,133,764.7, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

99,258.893 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

243,923.704, oz JPM No 2 7.58 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged Brinks/27,96 TONNES

International Delaware:: 0

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold: 1,884,464.742 oz 58.61 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIG GOLD AT THE COMEX: 35,908,058.973 OZ (1116,89 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 18,255,237.054 OZ (567.81 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,652,785.389 OZ (549.06 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,768,321.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 503.117 tonnes

END

APRIL 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//APRIL 13

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	316,384.459 oz JPM CNT
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	607,442.662 oz JPM
No of oz served today (contracts)	10CONTRACT(S) 50,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	32 contracts (160,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1080 contracts (5,400,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposit into the dealer

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 607,442.662 oz

total deposit: 607m442,662 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 176.505 million oz/334.353 million =52.79% of comex

i) Comex withdrawals: 2

i) Out of JPM 295,853.200 oz

ii) Out of CNT 19,530.990 oz

total withdrawal 316,384.459 oz

0 adjustments: dealer to customer

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 86.352 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 334.353 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF APRIL OI: 42, HAVING LOST 50 CONTRACTS FROM MONDAY. We had 71 notices filed yesterday,

so we GAINED 21 contracts or an additional 105,000 oz will stand on this side of the pond

MAY HAD A LOSS OF 5522 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 74,256 contracts

JUNE HAD A GAIN OF 6 TO STAND AT 996

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 10 for 50,000 oz

Comex volumes: 86,425// est. volume today// strong/

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 96,151 contracts ( strong )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1080 x 5,000 oz = 5,400,000oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (42) and the number of notices served upon today 10 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL./2021 contract month: 1080 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (42) – number of notices served upon today (10) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month equates 5,560,000 oz. .

We GAINED 21 contracts or an additional 105,000 oz will stand on this side of the pond

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $26.95: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 //A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1090.49 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP $7.70: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1088.75 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.30 TONNES

APRIL 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.68 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.30 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.98 TONNES

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $.70//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.73 TONNES

APRIL 1///WITH GOLD DOWN $19.00 : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.73 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD UP $13.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD FROM MONDAY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES FROM THE GLD:INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.44

MARCH 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.18 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.60 : A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.18 TONNES

MARCH 24/WITH GOLD UP $24.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.66 TONNES

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $15.75//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1083.60 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSITED INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1083.60 TONES

MARCH 21//WITH GOLD UP $.25 : A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.00 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.44 TONES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.55 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.44 TONES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $33.50: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.61 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.44 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.50//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.83 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.16 TONNES

MARCH 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $22.75, HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//STRANGE: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.16 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.54 TONNES

MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.55: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.06 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.28 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.85//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.64 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.34 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $46.10: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 8.42 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.70 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.28 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.22 TONNES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1093.10 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP 66 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 831,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS :NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 7/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS : A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.386 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESETS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 6.326 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY REST AT 564.966 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.302 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 558.647 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.171 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.345 MILLION OZ

MARCH 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.847 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 554.167 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 552.320 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.092 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 552.320 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 21/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.217 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/ WITH SILVER UP 72 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.049 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLVV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 548.071 MILLION OZ

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 56 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 462,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.560 MLLION O

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.022 MILLION OZ

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY; STRANGE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.125 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.022 MILLIONOZ

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.174 MILLION OZ OF FAKE SILVER.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 88 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.217 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS A 548.071 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ/

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 565.521 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

END

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James RICKARDS/

LAWRIE WILLIAMS:

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: 8.5% US CPI rise sees gold rise again sharply

The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in today showing an 8.5% year on year increase – higher than most had expected but still perhaps a little lower than the more pessimistic commentators, ourselves included, might have anticipated. Inflationary pressures are riding particularly high, boosted by the perhaps unintended adverse consequences which have impacted globally and on the U.S. resulting from the stringent sanctions being applied to sectors of the Russian economy over the Ukraine war.

Tomorrow we will get the new Producer Price Index (PPI) data which one suspects will come in comfortably into double digits. The PPI measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by US domestic producers for their output and had already reached 10% year on year in the previous data release of a month ago. The PPI data releases don’t quite seem to have the same impact as the CPI on equities and precious metals prices, but it is certainly an even better indicator of the price rises currently being experienced by the U.S. public. Indeed we suspect the average U.S. consumer may be experiencing higher price rises than these figures might suggest once retail outlets have added their own mark-ups.

As we have pointed out before, the U.S. inflation data were massaged downwards in the early 1980 s and again in the 1990s by the government wishing to present a better economic picture to the public. John Williams’ shadowstats.com service calculates the inflation data as it used to be assessed and this would put annual U.S. inflation as perhaps well above 15% – a figure that would probably be better recognised by the consumer as the current reality.

The U.S. Fed is almost powerless to do much about trying to mitigate the high inflation levels. It takes some comfort in that its preferred inflation data calculation is the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index which tends to track a percentage point or so below the CPI, but on current trends the next PCE data release due out on April 29th will probably come out at 7% or more (It was 6.4% year on year at the last data release on March 31st).

This has generated speculation that the Fed may even raise the Federal Funds interest rate by 75 basis points (it normally only looks at 25 basis point increases if it does raise rates) at the next FOMC meeting in early May, or even before. Such an increase would certainly be something of a shock to the U.S. economy and to equity prices and, with further rate increases flagged, could quite possibly drive the U.S. economy into a recessionary phase. And even this well-above –the-norm level of rate rise would probably be insufficient to slay the inflation dragon.

At this unusually high rate level increase, real interest rates would probably still remain in negative territory which, as we have explained before tends to be positive for a non-interest generating safe haven asset like gold. The silver price would probably benefit too as it still tends to ride on gold’s coat tails, but we’re not so sure about platinum and palladium which are very much dependent on industrial activity and motor vehicle sales, which could both turn down sharply in a period of economic weakness.

The gold price, as we had forecast, did rise sharply today on the high CPI figure and was heading up through the upper $1,970s at one time, before being brought back down again quite sharply to the mid 1,960s. Silver too was looking strong but ended at around the $25.30 mark after hitting $25.70. There always seems to be an almost immediate correction when gold and silver seem to begin to show strength. The higher gold price levels, even if only briefly achieved, put the $2,000 psychological level firmly in the sights.

Somewhat surprisingly U.S. equities and bitcoin moved up as well initially before falling back into negative territory, while the dollar index (USDX) regained the 100 mark. The oil price rose too, but managed to maintain its early gains ending up back over the $100 per barrel mark.

So where from here? With the PPI coming out tomorrow and likely to show a significant rise over the reading of a month ago we could well see some further appreciation in gold and silver prices and some more equity weakness too. We seem to be in a positive phase for gold and silver prices and falling general equities, but the markets are always somewht data driven and consequently volatile so some positive data could quickly reverse this trend.

12 Apr 2022

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Craig Hemke: How much will the Fed break the stock market before relenting?

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-04-12 22:36Section: Daily Dispatches

10:35p ET Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report, writing tonight at Sprott Money, speculates on how much the Federal Reserve is prepared to “break” the stock market in the name of fighting inflation before returning with infinite liquidity to drive stock prices up again.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Concern for Stonks” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Concern-For-Stonks-Craig-Hemke-April-12-2022

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

A must read..

Ronan Manly…

Ronan Manly: Sanctions won’t stop Russian-Chinese cooperation on gold

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-04-12 23:17Section: Daily Dispatches

11:15p ET Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star’s Ronan Manly writes tonight that cooperation in the gold market between Russia and China is far too serious to be undone by silly talk in political circles in the United States about sanctions to freeze Russian gold out of the world financial system.

Manly’s analysis is headlined “China and Russia in Close Cooperation Aiming for Win-Win in Gold Markets” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/china-and-russia-in-close-cooperation-aiming-for-win-win-in-gold-markets/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

5.OTHER COMMODITIES

LITHIUM

With Lithium Prices Up Ninefold, Report Underscores US Dependence On Foreign Minerals

TUESDAY, APR 12, 2022 – 10:45 PM

Authored by Nathan Worcester via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A recent white paper has laid out some of the challenges in supplying minerals for any energy transition from fossil fuels, offering a timely warning for policymakers as the increased demand for electric vehicles (EVs) drives up the costs of materials used in such products.Brine pools from a lithium mine, that belongs to U.S.-based Albemarle Corp, is seen on the Atacama salt flat in the Atacama desert, Chile, on Aug. 16, 2018. (Ivan Alvarado/Reuters)

Notably, the benchmark prices of lithium, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide have rapidly increased in recent months, as detailed at Benchmark Minerals.

Hovering at just $115.80 per ton in September 2020, the benchmark price of lithium has surged to $1045.90 a ton in March 2022. That’s more than a ninefold increase.

Zach Schumacher, a North American metals price expert with Argus Media, told The Epoch Times that the costs of EVs will likely increase as a result. The estimated average transaction price for a new electric vehicle was $56,437 in November 2021, according to Kelley Blue Book.

The prices of other key minerals—including the rare-earth metal neodymium that goes into wind turbines—have also trended sharply upward in recent months and years.

“Lithium is not the only raw material directly correlated to the EV market witnessing higher costs, so parsing out precisely how much of the increased costs for vehicles in the coming months originates from lithium alone could prove fairly difficult. Nickel, stainless steel, semiconductor and labor costs are among other costs that have all also risen compared to levels from recent years,” said Schumacher, who added that the prices of consumer electronics could also rise.

“Increasingly, scholars are questioning the mineral requirements that would be needed to reach either 100 [percent] renewable or clean energy targets,” states the March report, which was authored by Phil Rossetti and George David Banks for the Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions (CRES) Forum.

The document notes that EVs are six times as mineral intensive as vehicles that use conventional internal combustion engines, citing a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Renewable energy sources are also more mineral intensive than their hydrocarbon-based alternatives. Wind turbines, for example, need roughly nine times as many minerals as natural gas plants, according to the IEA report.

“China is the dominant supplier for multiple critical minerals and is likely to remain so. In the case of minerals it does not supply—such as cobalt—China has near-monopolistic control of refining capacity through its state-owned enterprises,” the CRES Forum’s analysis states.

“Policymakers should also understand the energy security implications of policies that lean heavily on mineral-intensive products for abating greenhouse gas emissions, as scarcity of materials could raise prices as well as create dependency on foreign suppliers that could have an interest in manipulating the market.”

In addition to creating national security risks, the current situation also makes the United States culpable in using forced, or otherwise ethically questionable, labor.

One crucial solar panel input, polysilicon, is largely produced in China’s Xinjiang region, likely through the slave labor of the region’s Uyghur ethnic minority.

Likewise, much of the cobalt in lithium-ion batteries is obtained through child labor from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

The CRES Forum report argues that the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) impedes domestic mining of minerals for renewable energy, even more than it impedes hydrocarbon production.

“Forty-two percent of DOE NEPA environmental assessments and environmental impact statements [are] for clean energy, transmission, or conservation efforts compared with 15 percent for fossil fuel,” it states, referencing an R Street analysis from one of the report’s co-authors, Phillip Rossetti.

A major proposed project along these lines, the Thacker Pass Lithium Mine in Humboldt County, Nevada, received its Record of Decision under NEPA in January 2021. Nevada’s Division of Environmental Protection issued mining, water, and air permits to it earlier this year.

Yet, the mine has continued to generate controversy, with Shoshone Paiute Gary McKinney writing in the Reno Gazette Journal that “our ancestors’ burial site is no place for a mine.”

The Canadian developer of Thacker Pass, Lithium Americas, has made major deals with the Chinese firm Ganfeng Lithium, including through joint ownership of the Cauchari-Olaroz brine lithium carbonate project in Argentina.

Lithium Americas’ website indicates that Ganfeng owns 46.7 percent of the project while Lithium Americas owns 44.8 percent. The remaining 8.5 percent is owned by Argentina’s state-run Jujuy Energía y Minería Sociedad del Estado (JEMSE).

Even if new domestic mines such as Thacker Pass go online, CRES Forum’s meta-analysis of three studies on the energy transition suggests that demand could outpace proven reserves of multiple key minerals, including cobalt, lithium, nickel, chromium, and zinc.

“In short, the potential mining requirements for a complete clean energy transition with existing technology is so large that it is not clear if it is economically viable to extract enough minerals to meet the needs modeled in those studies,” the report states.

In February, President Joe Biden drew attention to a range of new investments aimed at reducing the United States’ reliance on China for lithium, rare earths, cobalt, and other critical minerals.

This includes $35 million from the Department of Defense for a heavy rare earth element separation facility operated by MP Materials, owner of the country’s only rare-earth mine in Mountain Pass, California.

MP Materials is partly owned by a Chinese firm, Shenghe Resources.

“As proposed by Chinese government, and characteristic in Chinese rare earth industry, Shenghe Resources designed its equity structure on mixed ownership,” the website for the firm states, indicating that the company is partly owned by the state.

The Epoch Times has reached out to Shenghe Resources for comment.

Reuters reported in late March that Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) has described herself as “worried” about the Chinese stake in MP Materials.

The investments announced in February also include a $140 million Department of Energy (DoE) project to obtain critical minerals from mine waste, coal ash, and similar resources.

The CRES Forum report suggests that the challenges it describes could be mitigated by technological breakthroughs, including better approaches to carbon capture and the development of low-carbon fuels for conventional, non-electric vehicles.

It also urges the United States to sanction companies or countries that use unethical labor, arguing that such moves must be made quickly, before the country is too reliant on such minerals.

“As a major consuming market, the United States is best positioned to effect change by refusing market access to unethical suppliers,” it states.

end

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING TODAY

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 6.3665

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3772

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 55.24 PTS OR 0.26%

2. Nikkei closed UP 508.51 PTS OR 1.93%

3. Europe stocks ALL MIXED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 100.33/Euro RISES TO 1.0839

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.234/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 125.70/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 102.09 and Brent: 106.21

3f Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: UP -SHORE CLOSED UP// OFF- SHORE UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.0.800%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 2.40% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 1.72%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.60: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 2.81

3k Gold at $1979.70 silver at: 25.70 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 /3 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 80.00

3m oil into the 102 dollar handle for WTI and 106 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 125.70 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9336– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0119 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.725 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.828 DOWN 10BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.59

Futures Rise As Earnings Season Begins

WEDNESDAY, APR 13, 2022 – 06:57 AM

US index futures bounced, with Nasdaq 100 contracts halting a three-day drop, as investor attention turned to the start of corporate earnings season, which BofA dubbed the “Last big beat for a while” amid concerns over high inflation and slowing growth. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were up 0.4% as of 630 a.m. in New York, signaling a pause in the rout that wiped $1.6 trillion from the market value of technology behemoths in just over a week. S&P 500 futures and Dow futures gained 0.4%, with Asian stocks also rising even as Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index dropped; the selloff in U.S. Treasuries also eased with the 10Y yield flat at 2.72% while the US Dollar resumed its advance and the yen fell to a 20-year low as the growing gap between rising U.S. bond yields and perpetually low ones in Japan continued to pressure the currency. Oil rose after Russia vowed to continue the war in Ukraine and China partially eased Covid curbs. Bitcoin continued to trade on either side of $40K.

A quick look around the world: U.K. inflation surged to a 30-year high, surging 7% above expectations of 6.7%, before the Bank of England’s next decision in May, while New Zealand’s central bank delivered a surprise 50bps rate hike (exp 25bps) its biggest interest-rate increase in 22 years. Meanwhile, markets continued to digest Tuesday’s U.S. inflation data which was viewed by many as a peak in CPI, which prompted traders to pare back expectations on how aggressively the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said U.S. monetary policy needs to be tightened to a point that it curtails economic growth or policy makers will end up risking their credibility (translation: he wants stocks 30% lower). He supports a half percentage point increase at the Fed’s policy meeting in May and says the rate should move up “sharply” after that.

On the geopolitical front, the presidents of Poland and the three Baltic states are heading to Kyiv in a show of support that follows the visits of other leaders to the Ukrainian capital, including from Boris Johnson and European Union chiefs. The Biden administration is preparing a new military assistance package for Ukraine. Here are some of the latest news out of Ukraine:

Ukrainian President Zelensky proposed swapping pro-Russian politician Medvedchuk for Ukrainian prisoners of war, according to Reuters.
Ukrainian Deputy PM says it is not possible to open humanitarian corridors on Wednesday; occupying forces have violated the ceasefire, via Reuters.
Sweden’s largest party Social Democrats favour applying to NATO at the June meeting in Spain, according to SvD.
US President Biden said it will be up to lawyers to determine if Russia’s actions in Ukraine qualify as genocide but added it seems like genocide to him and that the evidence is mounting, according to Reuters.
US President Biden’s administration is expected to announce at least USD 750mln in additional weapons for Ukraine and deliberations continue on a mix of weapons, which could evolve, according to Reuters.
Ukrainian President Zelensky said it is not possible to draw 100% firm conclusions about whether Russia used chemical weapons in Mariupol and that it is not possible to conduct a full investigation in a besieged city, according to Reuters.
Chechen leader Kadyrov said over 1,000 Ukrainian marines surrendered in Mariupol, according to Sputnik.

US equities have been roiled again this month by the double whammy of soaring bond yields and concerns around a looming global recession. After data on Tuesday showed a smaller-than-expected increase in core inflation last month, focus this week will be on quarterly earnings starting with the big banks, which generally offer a window on the economy since they touch on everything from mortgages to general consumer behavior.

“Despite the increased price pressure, analysts are still expecting profit margins of the S&P 500 to reach new all-time highs by the second quarter, which seems optimistic in our view,” said Mathieu Racheter, head of equity strategy at Julius Baer. “We see a higher risks of negative earnings revision ahead, driven by the cyclicals sectors. We continue to recommend investors to remain defensively positioned within their equities allocation.”

Among notable pre-market moves in the US, Sierra Oncology shares jumped 37% to $54.30 after GlaxoSmithKline agreed to buy the maker of therapies for rare forms of cancer for $55/shares in cash, or about $1.9 billion. Genius Group shares, on the other hand, tumbled 29% after a whopping 408% gain on their first day of trading yesterday. JPMorgan was little changed ahead of its first-quarter results due later in the morning. Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today:

Antares Pharma (ATRS US) surges 48% in premarket trading after Dow Jones reported that Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO US) is close to buying the maker of needle-free systems for $5.60 per share in cash, citing people familiar with the matter.
The departure of PayPal (PYPL US) finance chief John Rainey to become CFO at Walmart (WMT US) was less concerning to some analysts than the absence of a guidance update with the announcement. PayPal stock falls 1.5% in premarket, Walmart +0.5%.
Hillman Solutions (HLMN US) fell 8.9% postmarket Tuesday after holders offered 10m shares.

Investors are now turning their attention to the earnings season, while awaiting the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday. Money managers are increasingly hedging the risk of stagflation, especially in Europe, amid concerns that high inflation and slowing growth will end up squeezing company profits.

“It appears that the market is swinging quickly to try and price ‘peak inflation,’” Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda, wrote in a note. “Naturally, ‘peak inflation’ should be a reason to pile back into equities. However, it just isn’t that simple. The environment for equities remains challenging.”

“We’re hopeful that this is where it’s going to peak,” Ann Miletti, head of active equity at Allspring Global Investments, said on Bloomberg Television, referring to U.S. inflation. But she added that markets continue to face a wall of worry, ranging from rising rates to the impact of China’s Covid lockdowns.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was down 0.4%, with travel and leisure sector leading declines as energy, miners and media are the strongest performing sectors. FTSE 100 outperforms, adding 0.3%; DAX lags, dropping 0.3%. LVMH erased early gains as it warned of a negative impact on demand because of lockdowns in China. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

Telecom Italia shares rise as much as 4.7% after a local press report that Apax and France’s Iliad are preparing a joint offer for its ConsumerCo business.
Ted Baker shares rise as much as 5.7% after the high-street retailer said Sycamore will participate in formal sale process.
Oxford Instruments gains as much as 9.4% after the firm said it expects its financial performance to be marginally ahead of expectations.
Tesco shares slump as much as 7% after the U.K. grocer said profit may show little change or decline slightly this year amid the U.K.’s cost of living crisis. Analysts noted Tesco’s focus on providing customers with “compelling” value.
Other U.K. grocery stocks including Ocado, Sainsbury and Marks & Spencer also fell
Adidas shares declined as much as 4.1% after being downgraded to reduce from add and PT cut to Street-low EU190 at Baader Helvea based on rising headwinds and a “more cloudy” outlook for rest of the year.
LVMH shares fall as much as 1.3%, reversing earlier gains, as worry over a Covid-19 resurgence in the key market of China remained at the forefront of investors mind even as the luxury conglomerate beat first-quarter expectations.
Barry Callebaut shares fall as much as 5.4% amid worries the Swiss chocolate maker may be further affected by the war in Ukraine and its far- reaching consequences. The company said it’s taking an impairment for its financial assets in Russia.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities rose for the first time in three days as U.S. Treasury yields retreated from multi-year highs, easing concerns over potential damage to corporate earnings. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.2%, rebounding from its lowest level since March 16. Tech hardware stocks drove gains after the 10-year Treasury yield slipped overnight following a smaller-than-expected jump in a key U.S. inflation gauge. TSMC was among the biggest contributors to gains in Asia ahead of its earnings release Thursday.

“A pause in the yield rally at the current level may provide a breather for the equities market in the coming days, as attention will be shifted to the upcoming earnings season to drive sentiment,” said Jun Rong Yeap, a strategist at IG Asia. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Japan and South Korea led gains around the region. New Zealand’s main index fell after an unexpectedly large 50-basis-point hike by its central bank –its biggest in 22 years. Chinese stocks declined as a top virus expert stressed the importance of the nation’s dynamic zero strategy and data showed Chinese imports unexpectedly fell. China’s Imports Drop, Export Growth Slows on Covid Lockdowns Amid news of looser quarantines in some Chinese cities, investors are keenly awaiting formal relaxation of Beijing’s strict virus policies as its growth slowdown weighs on the region. Meanwhile, soaring prices in the U.S. and parts of Europe have finally reached Asia, deepening concerns about rising input costs for businesses

Japanese equities gained, rebounding after two days of losses, following a smaller-than-expected rise in U.S. inflation and a drop in Treasury yields. Electronics and auto makers were the biggest boosts to the Topix, which rose 1.4%. Fast Retailing and Tokyo Electron were the biggest contributors to a 1.9% advance in the Nikkei 225. The yen extended losses against the dollar to a ninth day. The U.S. consumer price index increased 8.5% in March compared with a year earlier, less than economists expected. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped six basis points Tuesday following the inflation data. “Markets had been pricing in substantial negative impacts from higher U.S. interest and lockdowns in China, so stocks are rebounding somewhat today,” said Tomo Kinoshita, global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management. “There was a risk that if the U.S. CPI came in higher than market expectations that the Fed would turn more hawkish, but that didn’t happen.”

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index is near flat. CHF and EUR are the strongest performers in G-10 FX, NZD and JPY underperform. Yen drops to a 20-year low against the U.S. dollar, trading now at 126.15.

In fixed income, bonds bounced ahead of Tuesday’s new lows, but recovery remains weak rather than firm as Bunds hover above 155.00, Gilts just under 119.00 and T-note midway between 119-31/120-17 extremes. Lacklustre 10-year Bund auction in keeping with T-note sale last night, and with long bond supply still to come. Italy sees decent demand for multi-tranche offerings after recent heavier concession.

In commodities, crude futures advanced with Brent extending on its torrid Tuesday gains and rising 2% back over $106. The International Energy Agency halved its estimate for a decline in Russian crude oil output for April as the nation has been able to find new customers even with global restrictions and self-sanctioning by traditional buyers. But top oil trader Vitol Group said it intends to completely stop trading Russia-origin crude and products by the end of this year. Most base metals trade in the green; LME zinc rises 2.8%, outperforming peers. LME copper lags, dropping 0.1%. Spot gold rises roughly $9 to trade at $1,976/oz. Spot silver gains 1.2% to ~$26.

Looking at the day ahead now, data releases include US PPI for March, UK CPI for March and Italy’s industrial production for February. From central banks, we’ve got a policy decision from the Bank of Canada, as well as a speech from Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda. Finally, today’s earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Tesco and Delta Air Lines.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 4,418.25
MXAP up 0.7% to 173.79
MXAPJ up 0.7% to 577.71
Nikkei up 1.9% to 26,843.49
Topix up 1.4% to 1,890.06
Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 21,374.37
Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,186.82
Sensex down 0.3% to 58,425.03
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,479.02
Kospi up 1.9% to 2,716.49
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 456.72
German 10Y yield little changed at 0.84%
Euro little changed at $1.0832
Brent Futures up 0.2% to $104.89/bbl
Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,975.13
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 100.37

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said U.S. monetary policy needs to be tightened to a point that it curtails economic growth or policy makers will end up risking their credibility
The Biden administration is preparing a military assistance package of roughly $750 million for Ukraine in its battles against Russian invaders, people familiar with the matter said Tuesday night
An immediate interruption in Russian energy supplies over the war in Ukraine could jeopardize 220 billion euros ($240 billion) of German output over the next two years, a report warned
The yen’s drop to a two-decade low versus the dollar sets the tone in the options space, while overnight volatility in the euro rallies ahead of the ECB decision Thursday
It’s the next big market call that could enrich traders across Wall Street: The raging global energy crisis and ever-more hawkish central banks knock key economies into 1970s- style stagflation
French President Emmanuel Macron led his rival Marine Le Pen 53.2% to 46.8% ahead of the run-off presidential election set for April 24, according to a polling average calculated by Bloomberg on April 13. The gap between them has narrowed from the 8 percentage points recorded on April 11

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks mostly shrugged off the weak lead from the US and rebounded from a two-day losing streak. ASX 200 was kept afloat by the commodity-related sectors including energy after WTI crude futures climbed back above USD 100/bbl landmark and with Australia’s government providing funding for domestic refiners. Nikkei 225 outperformed currency weakness and with the index unfazed by disappointing Machinery Orders. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged on COVID woes despite China testing an easing of quarantine rules in eight cities, as infections continued to spread with a fresh record of daily cases in Shanghai, while Sunac’s missed coupon payment, further inclusions to the US HFCAA list and mixed trade data added to the cautious mood.

Top Asian News

Yen Falls to 20-Year Low as Policy, Yield Divergence Continues
Japan Finance Minister Says Sudden FX Moves Problematic: Kyodo
SMBC Nikko Ex-Deputy President Indicted Over Block Offers
China’s Exports to Russia Slump After Ukraine Invasion

European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%, in what has been a somewhat choppy European morning with limited fresh macro drivers emerging. Sectors are similar to their initial cash open performance, as Energy and Basic Resources outperform while Travel, Retail and Personal Goods lag. US futures are firmer across the board, ES +0.3%, and while they have been directionally moving with Europe magnitudes are more limited; support following yesterday’s CPI but ahead of PPI and JPM earnings. BlackRock Inc (BLK) Q1 2022 (USD): EPS 9.52 (exp. 8.95), Revenue 4.699bln (exp. 4.74bln). +0.3% in the premarket.

Top European News

Deutsche Telekom Edges Closer to T-Mobile Control With New Stake
U.K. Inflation Jumps More Than Expected to 30-Year High of 7%
European Gas Rises With Lower Flows Via Ukraine, Norway Outages
U.K. Homebuilders Commit $2.6 Billion for Fire Safety Repairs

FX:

Kiwi knee jerks higher after bigger than generally expected 50 bp RBNZ hike before retreating abruptly on reflection of unchanged OCR outlook; NZD/USD sub-0.6800 vs peak just over big figure above.
Yen flogged yet again as Japanese officials continue to fret about speed rather than size of moves and core machinery orders miss consensus; USD/JPY knocks down barriers at 126.00 to reach 126.31 and breach 2015 peak.
DXY extends advance above 100.000 before waning ahead of May 2020 peak just over 100.500.
Aussie retains 0.7400+ status vs Greenback before jobs data, but with assistance from sharp reversal in AUD /NZD cross flows – from circa 1.0833 to 1.0950.
Euro keeps its head above 2022 low against Dollar, narrowly, and Pound rebounds after minor boost from strong UK inflation prints, EUR/USD down to 1.0811 or so vs 1.0806, Cable revisits 1.3000 vs 1.2972 at worst.
Loonie immersed in technical levels awaiting BoC and guidance to accompany a widely forecast half point rate rise; USD/CAD near 1.2650 and flanked by 200, 100 and 50 DMAs.

Fixed Income:

Bonds bounce ahead of Tuesday’s new lows, but recovery remains feline rather than firm as Bunds hover above 155.00, Gilts just under 119.00 and T-note midway between 119-31/120-17 extremes.
Lacklustre 10-year Bund auction in keeping with T-note sale last night, and with long bond supply still to come. Italy sees decent demand for multi-tranche offerings after recent heavier concession.

Commodities:

WTI and are firmer in a continuation of the consolidation from the upside seen in yesterday’s session amid Brent geopolitical tensions.
Most recently, the benchmarks have eclipsed a circa. USD 2/bbl range that had been holding throughout the morning; current bests, USD 102.13/bbl and USD 106.45/bbl respectively.
US Private Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +7.8mln (exp. +0.9mln), Cushing +0.4mln, Gasoline -5.1mln (exp. -0.4mln), Distillate -5.0mln (exp. -0.5mln).
IEA OMR: Lowers 2022 global oil demand estimate by 260k BPD on COVID in China and lower OECD demand.
February global stocks 714mln/bbl below the end-2020 level, OECD accounts for 70% of the decline. Russian oil supply is expected to fall by 1.5mln BPD in April and by around 3mln BPD from May.
CNOOC (883 HK) is said to be considering exiting operations in Britain, US and Canada amid tensions with the West, according to Reuters sources.
Spot gold and are bid this morning, though the yellow metal is still shy of yesterday’s USD 1978.21/oz silver peak.
LME Zinc outperforms piggybacking the performance of its Shanghai peer overnight

US Event Calendar

07:00: April MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -6.3%
08:30: March PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 10.6%, prior 10.0%; 08:30: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 1.1%, prior 0.8%
08:30: March PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 8.4%, prior 8.4%; MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.2%
08:30: March PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, est. 6.5%, prior 6.6%; MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.2%

DB’s Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

After a succession of major bond selloffs this month, yesterday marked the first time so far in April that US Treasuries put in a positive performance. Given the US CPI report showed inflation hitting its highest rate since 1981 in March, with a year-on-year rate of +8.5%, that might seem counter-intuitive. But the monthly print of +1.2% was already expected by the consensus, even if it was the strongest since September 2005, whilst there was also a downside surprise in core inflation, which came in at +0.3% over the month (vs. +0.5% expected). In turn, that saw investors take out some of the expected monetary tightening they’d been pricing over the rest of the year, with the futures-implied policy rate by December’s meeting down by -10bps relative to the previous day.

Looking at some of the details, higher gasoline prices were responsible for more than half of the headline monthly increase in CPI, having gone up by +18.3% in March. That’s their biggest monthly increase since June 2009, and follows the major spike in oil prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On the other hand, used cars and trucks came down -3.8% over the month, which is their largest monthly decline since May 1969. In terms of housing inflation, rent of primary residence fell back to +0.43% (vs. +0.57% in Feb), though owners’ equivalent rent came in at +0.43%, in line with the narrow band of +0.41-0.45% in which it’s been rising since September.

Against that backdrop, yields on 10yr Treasuries came down -5.9bps to 2.721%, marking their first daily decline so far this month, with trademark intraday volatility, as 10yrs were as much as +5.3bps higher in early morning trading, before trading -10.8bps lower during the New York lunch hour. 2yr yields had a larger on net decline (-9.2bps) that saw the 2s10s curve steepen up to 31.2bps, which is the steepest its been since the March FOMC meeting when the Fed embarked on their new hiking cycle. And although the total number of hikes priced for the year as a whole came down somewhat, the odds of a 50bp move at the next meeting in May actually ticked up to 93.5%, the highest to date. Overnight though, the 10yr yield has pared back some of its declines yesterday, moving up +2.3bps to 2.744%.

While the CPI release may have triggered a bond rally, Fed communications remained just as hawkish, and yesterday we heard more from Governor Brainard, who is awaiting confirmation to her new post as Vice Chair. She expressed a preference to get the policy rate to neutral by the end of this year, echoing similar comments from Fed officials earlier in the week. She still thinks the Fed has room to engineer a soft landing and sustain the current economic expansion due to the historic strength of the labour market. Separately, in an interview released overnight with the FT, St Louis Fed President Bullard (who voted for a 50bps hike in March) said that it was a “fantasy” that the Fed could bring inflation down without going above neutral.

Even as investors priced in a slightly shallower pace of Fed rate hikes over the coming year, US equities still managed to rollover after trading in the green for most of the day, with the S&P 500 down -0.34%. Financials (-1.07%) led the way lower with the decline in yields ahead of financials earnings kicking off today, while energy (+1.72%) was the clear outperformer on rebounding crude prices. Small-cap stocks put in a decent performance, with the Russell 2000 (+0.33%) ending a run of 5 consecutive declines. European equities also traded lower as well, with the STOXX 600 down -0.35%, along with other indices including the DAX (-0.48%), the CAC 40 (-0.28%) and the FTSE 100 (-0.55%).

Turning to commodities, oil prices moved sharply higher yesterday, with Brent Crude (+6.26%) closing above $104/bbl for the first time in over a week. That came as Russian President Putin said that talk with Ukraine were “at a dead end”, and other haven assets including gold (+0.68%) also moved higher on the day. Over in the US meanwhile, President Biden accused Russia of “genocide”, standing by his comments and saying that “it has become clearer and clearer that Putin is just trying to wipe out the idea of being able to be Ukrainian”.

Those further gains in oil prices meant that European inflation expectations rose to fresh highs, with the 10yr German breakeven up to 2.90%, its highest level yet in data going back to 2009, whilst the 10yr Italian breakeven rose to 2.69%, a level not seen since 2008. Importantly, measures of long-run inflation expectations, ostensibly beyond the influence of the current shock, have increased as well, with the 5y5y forward inflation swap for the Euro Area rising to +1.6bps to 2.38% yesterday, marking its highest level since 2013.

In spite of those rises in European inflation expectations, sovereign bond yields in Europe moved lower along with US Treasuries, paring back an initial rise that saw the 10yr bund yield move to its highest intraday level since 2015, at 0.87%. By the close of day however, yields on 10yr bunds (-2.6bps), OATs (-1.9bps) and BTPs (-5.7bps) had all moved lower.

Overnight in Asia, equity markets have bucked the trend seen in the US and Europe, with the Nikkei (+1.60%), the Kospi (+1.40%) and the Hang Seng (+0.29%) all moving higher. However, the Shanghai Composite (-0.44%) and CSI (-0.51%) are both lagging as the Covid-19 outbreak in China continues to weigh on investor sentiment. Looking forward, stock futures in the US are pointing to a decent start today, with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.51%) and Nasdaq 100 (+0.69%) both higher. On the monetary policy front, we also heard from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand overnight, who hiked their official cash rate by +50bps to 1.50% as they seeks to tame inflation. This is the fourth consecutive interest rate hike by the central bank and its biggest hike since 2000.

Turning to the French election, we’re now just 11 days away from the second round between President Macron and Marine Le Pen, and the polls continued to point to a fairly tight race, albeit with Macron in the lead. In terms of yesterday’s polls, Macron was ahead by 54-46 in Opinionway (down from 55-45 the previous day), whilst Ifop’s 52.5-47.5 margin was unchanged from the previous day. French assets performed basically in line with their European counterparts yesterday, with the spread of French 10yr yields over bunds moving up by just +0.6bps to 50.8bps.

Running through yesterday’s other data, the UK employment report was somewhat softer than expected, with payrolled employees up by just +35k in March (vs. +125k expected). Nevertheless, the unemployment rate did fall back to the pre-pandemic low of 3.8% in the three months to February, in line with expectations. Elsewhere, Germany’s ZEW survey saw further declines in April, with the current situation reading down to an 11-month low of -30.8 (vs. -35.0 expected), and the expectations component fell to a 2-year low of -41.0 (vs. -48.5 expected), even if both were somewhat better than expected. Finally in the US, the NFIB’s small business optimism index fell to a 2-year low of 93.2 in March (vs. 95.0 expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include US PPI for March, UK CPI for March and Italy’s industrial production for February. From central banks, we’ve got a policy decision from the Bank of Canada, as well as a speech from Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda. Finally, today’s earnings releases include JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Tesco and Delta Air Lines.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY NIGHT

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

END

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/COVID/SHANGHAI LOCKDOWNS//LAST NIGHT

USA pulls its consulate staff from Shanghai with Beijing easing lockdowns at bit

(zerohedge)

US Pulls Consulate Staff From Shanghai As Beijing Eases Lockdown

TUESDAY, APR 12, 2022 – 06:25 PM

Despite continuing to report record numbers of daily cases (more than 25K on Monday and another 22K+ on Tuesday), Shanghai started easing its lockdown on Monday, while the American State Department starting pulling all non-essential personnel from its consulate in the city of more than 25 million – a decision that greatly angered the Chinese government.

City officials announced on Monday that they would be easing the lockdown after a tremendous public backlash. From now on, they would be grouping residential units into three risk categories as a step towards allowing “appropriate activity” for those who live in neighborhoods with no positive cases during a two-week stretch.

Authorities insisted they remained committed to a “dynamic zero” strategy – that is, a modified version of the “zero COVID” policy that has been such a spectacular failure in the country, which is presently struggling with its worst COVID outbreak since Wuhan.

Across Shanghai, anger has risen over food shortages, the inability to access medical care and even the killing of pets by COVID workers. But the pullout of diplomats from Shanghai comes as relations between the US and China have soured as the West has pressured China to do more to restrain Russia in its war in Ukraine.

“Many Americans in Shanghai were dismayed to hear of the previous consulate staff departures given the current situation,” said Josef Gregory Mahoney, a professor of politics and international relations at East China Normal University in Shanghai, referring to an earlier announcement that staff could leave.
“This new order will certainly increase the impression that the situation is worsening despite indications to the contrary, or that this is political posturing on behalf of the U.S., or that consulate staff – who are already rather privileged – are unable to stomach the inconveniences that others are required to endure.”

The latest US State Department order comes days after Washington said all non-emergency employees and their family members from the consulate in Shanghai were allowed to leave. The department also told Americans to reconsider travel to China due to what it calls an “arbitrary enforcement” of virus restrictions.

“Our change in posture reflects our assessment that it is best for our employees and their families to be reduced in number and our operations to be scaled down as we deal with the changing circumstances on the ground,” an Embassy spokesperson said in a statement Tuesday, noting that staffers and their relatives would leave on commercial flights.
“The United States has no higher priority than the safety and security of US citizens overseas, including Mission China’s personnel and their families,” the spokesperson added.

CCP authorities weren’t exactly thrilled about America’s decision to withdraw.

Zhao Lijian, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, said they deplored the way the US has politicized the departure of staff from the consulate.

“The US should immediately stop attacking China’s epidemic protocol and policy, stop political manipulation, and stop its smears and attacks on China,” Zhao said “Relevant Chinese departments and local governments have been providing assistance and convenience to foreign diplomatic and consular personnel in China as much as possible in accordance with relevant international conventions and policies,” he said.

As for Shanghai’s decision to ease policy, some social media users criticized the easing move as risky at a time of record new daily cases, while others said the city had no choice.

END

CHINA/COVID/LOCKDOWNS

China announces more easing measures on their economy but Xi pledges lockdowns will continue until COVID is defeated. With the lack of efficacy on their vaccines, that will be a long time

(zerohedge)

PBOC Pre-Announces More Easing Measures As Xi Pledges Lockdowns Will Continue Until COVID Defeated

WEDNESDAY, APR 13, 2022 – 08:02 AM

According to our most recent count (coming courtesy of Nomura). about 373 million people in 45 cities (including Shanghai, China’s the financial and economic heart of China’s economy) are now under full or partial lockdown, comprising less than 20% of China’s population but roughly 40% of China’s GDP.

And as Beijing scrambles to do everything in its power to protect the country’s facturing economy – which is rapidly becoming (or rather, has already become) a serious problem not just for the CCP, but for the world, as IMA Asia’s Richard Martin claimed during an early morning interview on CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Tuesday – the central banking wunderkinds over at the PBOC are once again stepping into the breach.

In an announcement that seemed to imitate the Fed’s favorite “bazooka” rhetoric (or, perhaps more like Mario Draghi’s infamous “whatever it takes” moment), the PBOC said Wednesday that it was waiting and ready to (yet again) cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio and/or use other monetary policy easing measures “at proper time,” according to a state television report sourced to a State Council meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang, China’s most powerful political leader after only President Xi himself. Keqiang’s announcement follows his latest warning about the direction of China’s economy by about a day.

CHINA’S CABINET: WILL USE POLICY TOOLS, INCLUDING RESERVE REQUIREMENT CUTS IN A TIMELY WAY – STATE MEDIA
CHINA’S CABINET: WILL TAKE MEASURES TO BOOST CONSUMPTION- STATE MEDIA
CHINA STATE COUNCIL VOWS TO USE RRR CUT WHEN NEEDED: TV

As we have noted before (indeed, many times before), central banks are ill-equipped to fix structural problems in the economy spawned by the fact that millions of consumers are being kept from work (no matter how hard Beijing tries to “target” its “zero COVID” crackdown, they can’t seem to reconcile the fact that essential workers at ports and factories can’t be both under quarantine and together at work at the same time without seriously hampering productive capacity (although lord knows they have tried). In fact, Credit Suisse’s Zoltan Pozsar has even touched upon this issue in some of his recent writings about the threat to the dollar’s monetary dominance – if only tangentially.

Of course, easing isn’t the only policy change that the CCP has been scrambling to make in this all-important year for President Xi, who is expected to be anointed to lead for a nigh-unprecedented (since Chairman Mao) third term as China’s supreme leader during the upcoming quinquennial party congress in November.

The NYT noted earlier that as President Xi and the Politburo Standing Committee do everything in their power to kick-start economic growth, Xi’s “common prosperity” crackdown on China’s technology industry (along with private tutoring, video games and other alleged drivers of “inequality”) has been postponed because of its anti-growth properties. As it turns out, cracking down on the industries that are the biggest drivers of your country’s economic growth and prosperity can be bad for the all-important GDP numbers (goalseeked though they are).

To Beijing, ensuring the economy is stable and growing is paramount this year, an all too important one for Mr. Xi. As he prepares to claim a third five-year term later in the year, he has sought to portray China as more prosperous, powerful and stable under his rule. Officials have scrambled in recent months to try to reverse a slowdown in growth, made worse by surging global oil prices, uncertainty over the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China to contain an unrelenting surge of coronavirus cases.
“Common prosperity is still here, but the growth situation is quite challenging,” said Huang Yiping, deputy dean of the influential National School of Development at Peking University, in an interview. “The top priority is really to stabilize growth.”
The delay is more of a tactical retreat than a wholesale abandonment of Mr. Xi’s plans, which the party continues to describe as a long-term goal. Mr. Xi’s “common prosperity” campaign is a pledge to shrink the country’s wide wealth gap and build up a middle class that can drive domestic consumption and reduce the country’s reliance on debt-fueled growth. It also serves political aims: to shore up public support for Mr. Xi’s leadership and champion the Chinese political system of centralized control as superior to the West.

Meanwhile, President Xi doubled-down on the lockdown policy Wednesday, telling state media that China will not relax its “dynamic” COVID lockdown policies until the COVID outbreak has been defeated (although the CCP will continue to do everything it can to minimize economic blowback).

Last month, western investment banks including Goldman Sachs declared Beijing’s growth target to be “quite challenging” under current conditions. Since then, lockdown measures have only tightened, with the vampire squid projecting that the CCP could trim one percentage point off of growth for every four weeks of “targeted” lockdowns.

As far as stimulus is concerned, the floodgates have now been opened. Remember, the lockdowns are about more than just the economy now, they’re about something bigger: the very legitimacy of the CCP’s policymaking apparatus.

end

CHINA/RUSSIA/TRADE

China trade with Russia soars 28% in 2022!

(zerohedge)

China Trade With Russia Soars 28% In 2022

WEDNESDAY, APR 13, 2022 – 11:28 AM

For those curious who will pick up Russia’s trade slack now that most western nations have shunned the Putin regime, here’s your answer.

On Wednesday, China revealed that overall trade with Russia soared to 243.03 billion yuan ($38.18 billion) in January-March, up 27.8% from a year earlier.

It wasn’t just Russia however, and according to customs spokesman Li Kuiwen, China’s total trade with Ukraine also climbed to 29.6 billion yuan in the first quarter, up 10.6%.

China’s trade with both Russia and Ukraine has maintained an uptrend, Li said, adding that China’s economic and trade cooperation with other countries including Russia and Ukraine will remain normal.

China’s overall trade with Russia reached 190.12 billion yuan in January-March 2021, while its trade with Ukraine stood at 26.77 billion yuan, according to previous customs data.

But while China is aggressively taking advantage of steeply discounted Russian goods and importing up a storm from the sanctioned regime, it has definitively slowed down imports from other places, and as it unveiled overnight, while China’s March exports remained strong, rising 14.7% Y/Y and slightly above the consensus expectations – moderating as consumer electronic products and Covid-driven demand remained strong – overall imports actually declined 0.1% yoy in March, well below consensus expectations and partially driven by lower crude oil, coal and iron ore import volumes. Sequentially, imports declined 2.3% mom sa in March (vs. +2.7% in January-February).

Drilling down a little more: among major import categories, crude oil import value grew by 36.0% yoy in March (vs. 49.2% in January-February). In volume terms, crude oil imports decreased by 14.0% yoy (vs. -4.9% yoy in January-February). Coal import value growth moderated to 6.7% yoy from 124% yoy in January-February driven by a decline in import volume which dropped by 39.9% yoy (vs. -13.9% in January-February). The implied coal import price still rose 78% yoy in March (vs. 160% yoy in January-February). Iron ore import value also fell 34.0% yoy in March (vs. -27.7% in January-February) with import volume down 14.5% yoy (vs. -0.2% yoy in January-February). Import value of integrated circuits increased by +6.9% yoy in March, decelerating from +19.3% yoy in January-February.

As a result of the collapse in imports, China’s trade surplus in March was $47.4bn, well above consensus expectations.

Commenting on China’s dismal trade data, hit by global growth prospects and exacerbated by Shanghai port congestion, Peter Boockvar writes that “in a likely sign of the slowdown to come (Chinese) imports were flat instead of rising by 8.4% as forecasted…world needs the Chinese consumer again.” Judging by how stiny the PBOC has been with its monetary stimulus (so far), the world will have to keep waiting for a long time.

end

Shanghai lockdown snarls world’s busiest port and China supply chains – CNA

Inbox

Does no one understand basic economics anymore? As i pen this the port is still closed. Does anyone appreciate that supply chains are movements of goods in a orderly format reliant one piece to another in linkage of delivery?
China is the factory to the world and their busiest port is closed to container traffic. This will back up the supply chain activity in China slowing down their own economy while causing inflation to be exported as goods become scarce and thus cause prices to rise. While at the same time out dated Central Banks imagine that higher interest rates will cure inflation. Sadly this only works when there is runway demand with a abundance of money. It does not work when price is driven by scarcity.
Whether truly because of illness or not, China is in effective pouring gasoline on the economies of the West who will see their day to day lives scattered with rising prices for everything that is China dependent. And vast shortages will be apparent as the supply chain few ponder breaks down causing more issues.
In Germany inflation last month was over 20% with the ECB trapped by over a decade of negative interest rates unable to raise rates without collapsing the economy. What will people do ? It is only time before there are serious dislocations in Europe.
Europe will see much more civil unrest as a result and become much more unstable as a result.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/shanghai-lockdown-snarls-worlds-busiest-port-and-china-supply-chains-2615966

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

//SLOVAKIA/UKRAINE

Slovakia in talks with NATO allies to send MIG 29 jets to Ukraine

(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)

Slovakia In Talks With NATO Allies To Send MiG-29 Jets To Ukraine

WEDNESDAY, APR 13, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Slovak Prime Minister Eduard Heger said Monday that Slovakia is in talks with its allies about an arrangement to send Soviet-designed MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine as NATO is working to send heavier equipment to be used in the war against Russia.

Last week, Slovakia announced that it sent a Soviet-designed S-300 missile defense system to Ukraine. In exchange, the US is deploying a Patriot missile system to Slovakia. The Slovak government is looking for a similar deal when it comes to the MiGs, and Heger said Slovakia wants to phase out the Soviet weapons.MiG-29 file image

Heger said Slovakia “cannot sustain” Soviet equipment without a “relationship” with Moscow. “This is equipment that we want to finish anyway because we’re waiting for the F-16s,” he said. In 2018, Slovakia signed a deal to purchase US-made F-16 fighter jets, but they aren’t expected to be delivered until 2024.

The Slovak prime minister said he wants guarantees from allies about the protection of Slovak airspace if the country gives up its MiG-29s. “After that, we can consider speaking about this equipment in regard with Ukraine as well,” Heger said. He said Ukraine is also seeking Zuzana self-propelled howitzers, which are made by Slovakia.

As part of the NATO effort to send more heavy equipment to Ukraine, the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall is prepared to send Ukraine 50 used Leopard 1 battle tanks. Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger said the company could deliver the tanks through its subsidiary Rheinmetall Italia if the German government gives permission.

Ukrainian forces are only trained to use Soviet-designed tanks, but Papperger said they could be trained to use the Leopard 1s in just a few days.

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss recently said that NATO allies agreed that they should work towards Ukraine being able to use NATO equipment. On Sunday, Lithuania announced that it was starting a training program for Ukrainian troops.

END.

UK household incomes have been obliterated by inflation//living standards plunge

(zerohedge)

UK Household Incomes “Obliterated” By Inflation Storm As Living Standards Plunge

WEDNESDAY, APR 13, 2022 – 04:15 AM

Living standards in Britain continue a death spiral as wages fail to outpace inflation amid soaring energy costs, according to new data.

Bloomberg, citing data from the Office for National Statistics, said average earnings excluding bonuses for February dropped 1.3%, the most since 2013.

Negative real wage growth indicates millions of Britons are falling behind despite a strong labor market. Unemployment fell to 3.8% in the three months through February, the lowest since late 2019 and on par with levels from the 1970s. However, the hot labor market will force the Bank of England to raise interest rates in May, which could hinder economic growth.

The squeeze on incomes comes from several factors, including soaring energy, food and shelter prices, and tax hikes.

“Household incomes are being obliterated as wages fail to keep pace with the spiraling cost of living,” said Frances O’Grady, general secretary of the Trades Union Congress.

“We can’t go on like this. The Chancellor must come back to parliament with an emergency budget to help people through this crisis.”

High inflation has pushed the UK Misery Index, an economic indicator to gauge how the average person is doing, to three-decade highs, a sign discontent is emerging.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) points out that increasing household misery comes from soaring energy costs.

The average UK household will now pay 54% more for their energy bills compared to the six month period between October 2021 and March 2022 and a whopping 73% more than compared to a year ago. Meanwhile, petrol prices are up by 30% on the year while diesel prices have risen even faster, by 36%.
In short, the cost of living crisis has well and truly arrived in the UK. Over the coming months, the headline inflation rate is expected to rise a further 2.5 percentage points from its February level of 6.2%, far outstripping wage growth, which has trended downwards since the statistically inflated highs seen in the summer last year.

CEBR’s model shows a real household disposable incomes for this year could drop as much as 3% or about £2,320, inflicting the largest living standards decline since the 1950s when records began. Tents are becoming popular as people are pushed out of homes and onto the streets.

The Office for Budget Responsibility said living standards will not recover to their pre-pandemic level until 2024-25.

end

SWEDEN/FINLAND

Sweden to apply for NATO membership. This will anger Russia

(zerohedge)

Sweden To Apply For NATO Membership – Finland To Decide “Within Weeks”

WEDNESDAY, APR 13, 2022 – 09:20 AM

Swedish media is announcing that the Scandinavian country has made the decision to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, in a move that is sure to outrage Putin – and which could trigger serious repercussions after repeat threats from Moscow against both Finland and Sweden as they contemplate the move.

“Sweden’s prime minister Magdalena Andersson is understood to be eager for the country to join the trans-Atlantic alliance by June,” The Daily Mail reports Wednesday. “The application is expected to be submitted at the NATO meeting in Madrid on June 29-20, Swedish reports say.”

“Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s goal is for Sweden to join NATO in June this year, sources tell SvD. The information comes in parallel with Finland today presenting its new security policy analysis and the Swedish Social Democrats drawing up the plan to deal with the issue internally,” Stockholm-based daily Svenska Dagbladet reports.

This marks a complete reversal of prior longstanding policy, alongside Finland, to remain neutral on the question of formal NATO membership.

At the same time Finland, seen as more significant from Russia’s point of view given the over 800-mile shared border, will open serious domestic debate on the matter, also as it mulls seeking NATO membership by close of spring or summer. FT is reporting that a decision will come “within weeks” – based on statements out of Helsinki.

Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson met in Stockholm on Wednesday to hold high level consultations on the manner, given that the decision of each would likely have great impact on the other.

PM Andersson appeared to confirm the Swedish media reports saying the decision for joining NATO has been made.

Standing beside her counterpart, Marin said on the issue in the press conference, “There are different perspectives to apply (for) NATO membership or not to apply and we have to analyze these very carefully.”

“But I think our process will be quite fast, it will happen in weeks,” she added.Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin (foreground) and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson

Germany’s DW explains that the greater pressure remains on Finland, but that Sweden too has felt anxiety over the rapidly unfolding events in Ukraine:

Sweden does not share a border with Russia, but the strategic island of Gottland in the Baltic Sea could make Sweden vulnerable should a conflict erupt in the region.
Robert Dalsjo, the research director at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, said Swedes have realized “that they might find themselves in the same position as Ukraine: a lot of sympathy but no military help.”

Finland’s leader, meanwhile at the joint presser put the timeline for a final decision “before mid-summer” – and said the country would produce a major report on its new security policy in light of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine this week. That will kick off intense discussion in Finland’s parliament – all of which are seen as key steps in a path to NATO membership.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE//THE WEST

Kremlin Again Warns US-NATO Weapons Transports Into Ukraine Will Be Attacked

WEDNESDAY, APR 13, 2022 – 10:20 AM

At a moment the Pentagon has vowed to “speed up” weapons deliveries to Ukraine forces, and after Slovakia announced early this week it is in discussion with NATO allies to provide Kiev with MiG-29 fighter jets, the Kremlin has repeated its warning that any weapons shipments entering the country will be viewed as “legitimate military targets”.

The renewed warning was issued Wednesday by Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who told TASS news agency that the military stands ready to attack any US or NATO vehicles caught transporting weapons into the conflict.

“We are warning that US-NATO weapons transports across Ukrainian territory will be considered by us as legal military targets,” said Ryabkov, after last month the Kremlin issued a similar warning. But this time the language has been narrowed to specifically put the US and NATO on notice, whereas previously this was left somewhat ambiguous.

He warned further that these attempts to inflict damage on Russian forces will be “harshly suppressed”, explaining that…

“We are making the Americans and other Westerners understand that attempts to slow down our special operation, to inflict maximum damage on Russian contingents and formations of the DPR and LPR (Donetsk and Luhansk People’s republics) will be harshly suppressed.”

Ryabkov’s words come days after the Kremlin said ship-fired cruise missiles destroyed S-300 anti-air systems which had been provided by a European country.

“Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov said on Monday Russian Kalibr missiles destroyed on Sunday four S-300 launchers concealed in a hangar on the outskirts of the central-eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro, hitting 25 Ukrainian soldiers in the attack,” it was reported Monday based on state sources.

However, Slovakia – which had recently confirmed sending an S-300 system to Kiev – as well as Ukraine itself denied the Russian claims. Given the apparent delivery of such major systems to Ukraine, it’s likely other European and NATO countries will join with sending heavier and heavier weaponry, also amid reports of Soviet-era tank transfers.

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that the Department of Defense is looking to further ramp up its own shipments to Kiev: “The Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Administration is having weekly meetings of its European Crisis Management Team to review specific requests related to Ukraine,” writes Reuters.

And the report notes things are about t speed up: “To speed up U.S. government approval for sales and transfers of arms produced by American defense contractors, the Pentagon has re-established a team to respond to the increased demand,” according to Reuters.

END

RUSSIA/USA

Americans Are “In Charge” Of The War Says French Journalist Who Returned From Ukraine | ZeroHedge

Inbox

This is consistent with what civilians have been saying in Mariupol and other cities freed from the Azov types, that the Americans did this to them. Does no one remember Vietnam and the damage done there and in neighboring countries like Laos and Cambodia? To this day Americans are still disliked as people remember the horrors of that time.

What will historians write about this conflict? Does no one understand the delusional bunch is truly delusional and will not hesitate to sacrifice the Ukrainians to the last one to serve their agenda? And if we accept that this is American led fight who is really to blame to the damage and atrocities being committed? There should be no questioning of why countries are now wholesale rebelling against American led hegemony as hegemony conflicts have found their way into Europe. While no cared about Asian or African or South American Proxies will this be any different?

Does anyone remember why the Founding Fathers formed America to be beacon of hope and light for the world? Sadly, the world mourns that America and wonders if she can return? And lastly, does anyone question the vast waste of capital stolen from the American people and hegemony itself to serve a small group of thieves to what end?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/americans-are-charge-war-says-french-journalist-who-returned-ukraine

Americans Are “In Charge” Of The War Says French Journalist Who Returned From Ukraine

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A French journalist who returned from Ukraine after arriving with volunteer fighters told broadcaster CNews that Americans are directly “in charge” of the war on the ground.

The assertion was made by Le Figaro senior international correspondent Georges Malbrunot.

Malbrunot said he had accompanied French volunteer fighters, two of whom had previously fought against ISIS.

“I had the surprise, and so did they, to discover that to be able to enter the Ukrainian army, well it’s the Americans who are in charge,” said Malbrunot.

French reporter returning from Ukraine “Americans are directly in charge of the war on the ground.” pic.twitter.com/m5yr7far6N— no one (@antiwar_soldier) April 11, 2022

Adding that he and the volunteers “almost got arrested” by the Americans, who asserted they were in charge, the journalist then revealed that they were forced to sign a contract “until the end of the war.”

“And who is in charge? It’s the Americans, I saw it with my own eyes,” said Malbrunot, adding, “I thought I was with the international brigades, and I found myself facing the Pentagon.”

Malbrunot also mentioned America providing Ukraine with switchblade suicide drones, something highlighted by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in a tweet that revealed Ukrainian soldiers were being trained to use the devices in Biloxi, Mississippi.

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin speaks to Ukrainian soldiers training on switchblade drones in Biloxi, Mississippi before they return today to defend their country pic.twitter.com/awUaoySgeH— Lucas Tomlinson (@LucasFoxNews) April 10, 2022

Citing a French intelligence source, Malbrunot also tweeted that British SAS units “have been present in Ukraine since the beginning of the war, as did the American Deltas.”

Russia is apparently well aware of the “secret war” being waged in Ukraine by foreign commandos who have been in the region since February.

Both the United States and the UK have publicly asserted that there won’t be “boots on the ground” in Ukraine, but apparently there has been a US-UK military presence since the start of the war.

“Polls showed in the run up to the war the overwhelming majority of Americans wanted our government to stay out of it but our leaders know best and are more than happy to risk World War III in defense of Ukraine’s puppet regime,” writes Chris Menahan.

end

“Ukraine’s Fate Is Now in Russia’s Hands” – Nwo Report

Inbox

Whatever happens next in the Ukraine, it is clear is that relationships for Russia with the West will never be the same and that will have an lasting impact both on the Kremlin and on the Russian people and those parties who depended on a normal relationship. Decades of goodwill and relationships are gone. There is no turning back the clock on this.
Whether the world can get by without Russia remains to be seen just as whether Russia can get by without the West. In any case separation is now divorce and it remains to be seen how China will exploit this to their own longer term benefit. As for now everyone is taking advantage of the situation until a new norm is found.

https://nworeport.me/2022/04/13/ukraines-fate-is-now-in-russias-hands/

Cheers
Robert

END

US Officials Admit They’re Literally Just Lying To The Public About Russia – Caitlin Johnstone

Inbox

While not surprising, one does wonder if anyone in the delusional bunch would know what truth is?
It seems not just Americans but the world is being consistently lied to by the ship of fools so inept that running aground will be called a fantasy adventure.
A house or empire built on lies rarely lasts and usually ends up being shunned. And no lie lasts forever as somehow truth always manages to shed light to the darkness of lies.

US Officials Admit They’re Literally Just Lying To The Public About Russia

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE

Anti-Lockdown States Performed Better Than New York & California, Think Tank Finds

WEDNESDAY, APR 13, 2022 – 02:25 PM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

Freedom-loving states like Florida and South Dakota performed significantly better than states like New York and California which imposed harsh lockdown restrictions in terms of health, economy and education, according research by a US think tank.

The working paper, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, took those three factors and combined them to come up with a composite score and an overall rank.

The paper is called ‘A Final Report Card on the States’ Response to COVID-19’ and was written by Casey B. Mulligan, Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago, Phil Kerpen, President of the Committee to Unleash Prosperity, and Stephen Moore of the Heritage Foundation.

The authors tracked unemployment and GDP by state as well as the percentage of schools that stayed open during 2020-2021.

In terms of health, they looked at Covid-associated deaths reported to the CDC and all-cause excess mortality.

“Like numerous other studies, the authors found no relationship between lockdowns (measured in this case by economic impact) and health outcomes. If anything there was a slight correlation between remaining open and lower mortality,” writes Will Jones.

Top performing states were Utah, Nebraska, and Vermont, followed by six other states including Florida and South Dakota.

Proving that Americans were keen on fleeing restriction-heavy states, the four states with the highest net outward migration were Washington D.C., New York, Illinois and California, all of which featured in the bottom six of the overall rankings.

“Another weighty nail in the lockdown coffin – though lockdown proponents seem very slow in accepting it,” concludes Jones.

As we previously highlighted, a study by the renowned Johns Hopkins University concluded that global lockdowns have had a much more detrimental impact on society than they have produced any benefit, with researchers urging that they “are ill-founded and should be rejected as a pandemic policy instrument.”

END

GLOBAL ISSUES

USA

U.S. Department of Defense awarded a contract for ‘COVID-19 Research’ in Ukraine 3 months before Covid was known to even exist – The Expose

Inbox

Is this not a shocking awareness? What is the reality of how this all came about ?

https://dailyexpose.uk/2022/04/13/us-dod-contract-covid-research-ukraine-nov-2019/

end

VACCINE MANDATES/

VACCINE INJURIES//

VACCINE IMPACT

The Bird Flu Hoax is being Recycled Again to Create Fear and More Profits for Big Pharma

April 12, 2022 4:47 pm

The “Bird Flu Pandemic” scare has been employed to create fear in the public from time to time and to use as an excuse to attack small-scale poultry farmers who raise their chickens and turkeys outdoors on pasture, rather than in confined huge warehouses that the commercial industry operates. President George W. Bush was the first one to declare a “Bird Flu Pandemic” back in 2006, with apocalyptic warnings of imminent danger that kicked in massive federal funding to develop a new flu shot that incorporated this new “virus.” The pandemic never came, but people made a lot of money off of it, and they went after small-scale poultry producers to protect the large commodity poultry operations from competition. They recycled the dreaded “Bird Flu Pandemic” again in 2015 during the Obama administration, and again began destroying poultry, especially in Iowa, the state that produces the most eggs. This announcement of a “pandemic” allowed them to take certain measures and create fear among the public, but once again, nothing really came of it, other than the fact that some poultry operations lost a lot of money, while the vaccine manufacturers profited. So here we are now in 2022, fresh off the biggest and most successful “pandemic” in the history of the world, COVID-19, which has created tremendous wealth for the pharmaceutical industry while destroying many lives and economies of the working class, with another announced “Bird Flu Pandemic” to create more fear and earn more profits for Big Pharma, and to again target small-scale producers as part of the Great Reset the Globalists are implementing to move as many people as possible off of a meat diet to a plant-based diet all in the name of “saving the planet.” Former CDC Director under Donald Trump, Robert Redfield, has announced that this new “pandemic,” which has yet to happen, will be far worse than COVID, proving once again that all these “pandemics” are first hatched in the minds of the Globalists and then announced prior to them happening as if they have the gift of prophecy. But just like COVID, it is all hype and fear with little-to-no substance, and this one is an old one that is being recycled. There is virtually no evidence that an avian flu can be spread to humans and the CDC actually admits this (for now).

Michael Every

Michael Every of Rabobank brings us the major stories of the day:

Rabobank: The Dirty Secret In Markets Is That Nobody Pays Attention To Details

WEDNESDAY, APR 13, 2022 – 09:42 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Just Details

Details matter. Or they should. In reality the dirty secret in markets is that nobody actually pays attention to them.

One example is when, in a former role, somebody asked me to proof-read an offer document to propose entering into Hungarian government bond sales aimed at potential ‘Mrs Wattanabe’ investors. I did, and told them I did not think the Hungarians were offering florin debt. (The Hungarian currency is the forint; the florin was a gold coin struck from 1252 to 1533 in Italy. I am sure Mrs Wattanabe would have loved getting an 8% yield on a gold coin.)

Another case in point is US CPI, which you would have to be getting an 8% yield on a gold coin to keep up with. US headline inflation hit 8.5% y/y yesterday, a tick higher than expected, but the market focus was on the 0.3% m/m core print, which was 2 ticks lower than consensus. Along with the recent dip in oil prices, the sudden view was again that we have seen ‘peak inflation’. Happy days! US shorter-dated bond yields tumbled as a result, the 2-year falling 18bp intraday at one point, while longer yields fell less (10s down 10bp intraday). The US dollar also dipped.

What the market didn’t notice in the CPI release was the detail that ‘peak inflation’ was driven by a large dip in used car prices (-3.8% m/m) when almost everything else went up: food 1.0%; food away from home 1.5%; energy 11.0%; and even services 0.6%. And, yes, those are all month on month, not year on year. Try annualizing them for size.

That market move was only partially reversed when former dove Brainard flew in and said that the Fed will move “expeditiously” to raise rates, and will tighten “methodically”, alongside QT, to ensure inflation gets back to 2%. She didn’t seem to be too focused on the details either when she added, “the health of the US economy bodes well for bringing inflation down without causing a recession.”

US Senator Manchin was typically blunt in his own take:

“It is a disservice to the American people to act as if inflation is a new phenomenon. The Federal Reserve and the Administration failed to act fast enough, and today’s data is a snapshot in time of the consequences being felt across the country. Instead of acting boldly, our elected leaders and the Federal Reserve continue to respond with half-measures and rhetorical failures searching for where to lay the blame… Here is the truth, we cannot spend our way to a balanced, healthy economy and continue adding to our $30 trillion national debt.”

So, that’s a no to Build Back Better then?

Meanwhile, we got more piecemeal inflation-fighting from the White House with the announcement of an emergency waiver on summer ethanol ban to try to lower gasoline prices. It will have a marginal impact at best: but it is far from marginally bad policy to be burning food for fuel at a time when we see soaring global food prices.

The linked press event also took a segue in that Biden declared, “Your family budget, your ability to fill up your tank, none of it should on hinge on whether a dictator declares war and commits genocide a half a world away.” So, genocide now – at least until that gets walked back too by the press office, which it hasn’t so far.

Those who are into details will note that the ability to fill up the tank does not hinge on a Russian dictator or genocide: it is a combination of many dictators, and elected officials, and people talking about ecocide.

Some people are finally noticing some details, however. For example, here’s Paul Krugman in the New York Times this week:

“There has been a longstanding belief among Western elites that commerce is good for peace, and vice versa. America’s long push for trade liberalization, which began even before WW2, was always in part a political project: Cordell Hull, Franklin Roosevelt’s secretary of state, firmly believed that lower tariffs and increased international trade would help lay the foundations for peace.
The EU, too, was both an economic and a political project. Its origins lie in the European Coal and Steel Community, established in 1952 with the explicit goal of making French and German industry so interdependent that there could never be another European war…
So does trade promote peace and freedom? Surely it does in some cases. In other cases, however, authoritarian rulers more concerned with power than with prosperity may see economic integration with other nations as a license for bad behaviour, assuming that democracies with a strong financial stake in their regimes will turn a blind eye to their abuses of power.
I’m not talking just about Russia. The EU has stood by for years while Viktor Orban of Hungary has systematically dismantled liberal democracy. How much of this weakness can be explained by the large Hungarian investments that European, and especially German, companies have made while pursuing cost-cutting outsourcing?
And then there’s the really big question: China. Does Xi Jinping see China’s close integration with the world economy as a reason to avoid adventurous policies — such as invading Taiwan — or as a reason to expect a weak-kneed Western response? Nobody knows.
Now, I’m not suggesting a return to protectionism. I am suggesting that national-security concerns about trade — real concerns, not farcical versions like Trump’s invocation of national security to impose tariffs on Canadian aluminum — need to be taken more seriously than I, among others, used to believe.”

Notably, there are also arguments among national security types that once you decouple the other side is free to act with impunity geopolitically; and that threatening decoupling can lead to rapid escalation. Regardless, when you’ve lost Paul ‘free trade now!’ Krugman…

Linking this together, don’t focus on US core CPI, focus on the argument used last year that used cars meant inflation was “transitory”. It wasn’t then and it isn’t now. It’s becoming entrenched. US headline PPI today is seen up 1.1% m/m / 10.6% y/y, and 0.5% m/m / 6.6% y/y core.

Moreover, as even ‘Krugmans’ start to realise economic national security matters –on which, see some great work on supply chain problems from my colleagues Maartje Wijffelaars and Erik-Jan van Harn– we will soon grasp that freedom isn’t free. It’s expensive, because if we don’t want to be economically reliant on the likes of China then we need to be onshoring an awful lot of production. I am sure patriotic Western businesses and Wall Street will get right on it…

Yet it can’t come too soon for Dani Rodrik, of ‘global trilemma’ fame, as he argues, “When economists talk about global convergence, what they usually have in mind is that developing economies grow more rapidly than advanced economies, and the incomes of the world’s poor rise to levels in richer economies. The irony nowadays is that we are experiencing downward rather than upward convergence.”

Ironically, back in 2002 that was something I was telling ‘Krugmans’ would be inevitable due to globalization if they looked into it in detail rather than making utopian assumptions: nobody listened, but the resulting ‘go long long bonds’ trade paid off nicely.

In short, today we have entrenched inflation, a Fed prepared to “meticulously” ensure it becomes unentrenched, and a geopolitical backdrop that favors decoupling, which cannot be anything other than inflationary.

Timing-wise, that suggests higher long yields, then much lower, and then higher again – presuming the Fed doesn’t do what the BOJ have been doing and keep them low ‘for national security’. At which point it’s the dollar one wants to worry about. But that’s a story for another day.

Meanwhile, on that geopolitical backdrop, Putin says talks with Ukraine have hit a “dead end” and vowed to not stop “military operations” in Ukraine until Moscow succeeds; Japan is apparently close to joining AUKUS, making is JAUKUS(?); and we hear the ‘g’ word – but that “never again” allegation doesn’t seem to move markets, patriotic Western business, or Wall Street based on the recent trend. It’s apparently now just ‘detail’.

7. OIL ISSUES

Which Oil Giant Stands To Lose The Most In The Exodus From Russia?

WEDNESDAY, APR 13, 2022 – 02:47 PM

By David Messler of Oilprice.com

Executing a plan some eight years in the making, Russia invaded Ukraine at the end of February 2022. So savage, and indiscriminate was this attack that comparisons with the worst of World War II are beginning to be made in the non-stop press coverage. The Western world, recoiling in horror at the sight of bombed-out buildings and a civilian exodus that quickly swelled into the millions, soon sought to punish Russia by levying sanctions designed to cripple the Russian economy. After the first few days, it became apparent that the Ukrainians were going to mount a credible defense, and the Russian goal of a lighting strike to replace the government in Kyiv was not going to be realized. This war was going to drag on. As the images of what soon came to be called-war crimes piled up, Western companies doing business in Russia soon found that it was impossible to continue this practice and began pulling out of the country.

Among them a number of oil majors and large oilfield service companies quickly cut ties, removing their people, and abandoning equity and commercial interests in the country. BP, Shell, and Schlumberger, in particular have announced their intention to take major write-downs against first-quarter earnings. Will it be a train wreck for these companies? Possibly, as an article carried in Bloomberg notes, nobody wants these assets. Figuratively speaking, they glow in the dark.

In this article, we will avoid the geopolitical discussion around the invasion. You can find those discussions anywhere. Instead, we will focus on the likely impact of these write-downs on the near-term performance of the stocks mentioned. There are recent parallels in each case that may prove instructive, that we will reference.

BP

One of BP’s crown jewels has been its ~20% stake in Rosneft, the Russian oil giant. As of the most recent reporting period, at 1,111 mboepd Rosneft contributed about half again the 2,332 mboepd reported as standalone BP in Q-4 for FY-21. In other words, BP just lost 32% of its daily output. Rosneft also contributed the largest portion of BP’s Replacement Cost Profit-a Net Income equivalent metric.

The company has been shopping the Rosneft stake hard, as this Bloomberg article notes. U.S. accounting rules require the mark to market of distressed assets, and recently the company has posted its intention to take up to a $25 bn non-cash impairment charge against Q-1 earnings. Companies usually recover fairly quickly from these non-cash impairments, so I don’t expect a big hit to the stock on that account.

Of more direct concern would be the loss of revenue and earnings Rosneft brought. A quick back-of-the-envelope check suggests that revenues and EBITDA will be reduced by ~$20 bn and ~$4 bn respectively. Those figures do not include the nearly $3.5 bn in dividends paid to BP by Rosneft in 2021.

Currently, BP is selling at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.6X, well in a comfortable range for a capital-intensive industry. With a $25 bn charge, cash flow will be negative, making a GAAP analysis difficult. On an adjusted basis the calculation would be impacted by the loss of $4 bn in EBITDA and shift the multiple to 6.5X. In that event the stock price would adjust to about $26 per share, down from the present $30 per share.

Shell

The company is a partner in the much-discussed Nord Stream II gas pipeline, among other projects. So far it has announced about $3.5 bn in write-downs from Russian assets. A Guardian article has it pegged at $5.0 bn. Whichever it is, they are considerably less exposed than BP, and these non-cash charges will be just a ripple on their earnings statement.

More concerning to long-term investors should be their declining reserves and daily output. This loss of Russian upstream assets detailed below is significant and inconvenient as Shell has been pruning its upstream oil and gas portfolio since the Dutch court decision. Last fall it sold its Permian position to ConocoPhillips for $10 bn, losing about 220 K BOEPD as a result. The company’s daily output has been declining for several years, dropping from about 2.6 mm BOEPD in 2018 to about 2.2 mm BOEPD in 2021. The loss of its Russian daily output will subtract another 140K BOEPD from this declining output. Some of the projects that Shell is abandoning include:

Sakhalin-2

Shell has a 27.5 percent interest in Sakhalin-2, the joint venture with Gazprom, an integrated oil and gas project located on Sakhalin island. Other ownership interests are Gazprom 50%, Mitsui 12.5%, and Mitsubishi 10%.

Salym

Shell has a 50 percent interest in Salym Petroleum Development N.V., a joint venture with Gazprom Neft that is developing the Salym fields in the Khanty Mansiysk Autonomous District of western Siberia.

Nord Stream 2

Shell is one of five energy companies that have each committed to providing financing and guarantees for up to 10% of the estimated €9.5 billion total cost of the project.

Gydan

A joint venture With Gazprom Neft (Shell interest 50%) to explore and develop blocks in the Gydan peninsula, in north-western Siberia. The project is in the exploration phase, with no production

Including the loss of its Russian output, Shell is trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5X presently which is in very comfortable territory, and will probably enable the market to look past the write-downs and production declines. What might give investors pause is their trading multiple to Flowing Barrels. On this basis, Shell is valued at $114,500 per flowing barrel, a pretty steep metric for many oil companies. BP for example trades at ~$53,400 per flowing barrel.

Schlumberger

An FT article estimates the company’s direct investment in Russia over the last decade at $10 bn. As with the two operators we’ve discussed it is likely that Schlumberger will take a charge of the full amount of this investment. The Financial Times reports that SLB gains about 8% of its annual sales from Russia, and that could be cause for more concern than the non-cash write-downs.

SLB reports something on the order of $200 mm for the quarter and $750-$1 bn in annual sales, from Russia. The company is likely to report OCF in the range of $2.0 bn to $2.1 bn for the quarter of Q-1, 2022. Margins have been creeping toward the mid-20s, and I expect they will be sustained in that range. Bottom-line, I think the strength of the overall services market will be enough to offset the loss from Russia. We have a direct corollary to this belief in the recent past.

In Q-3 of 2019, Schlumberger took a $13 bn charge for the value of two acquisitions (Smith International-2010 and Cameron-2015). The stock actually gained afterward on the strength of its earnings and EBIT margin toward the high $30s. I think we have a similar situation for Q-1, but exacerbated only minimally by the lost revenue for Russia

So far none of the analyst firms are taking down estimates for the company. Goldman has maintained a BUY rating with a $51 target. If they deliver the revenue and margin growth I expect, the market will quickly look past the Russian effects, and send shares toward my forecast of $55.

Your takeaway

From this high-level analysis, it appears that BP will be impacted by the loss of Russian revenues and assets enough to see a hit of ~20% on their share prices when details are announced. Given the strength of the oil market, I don’t expect this to be a long-term result, and I don’t foresee any impact on the company’s stated plans for continuing its dividend and share repurchase plans.

Shell has twice the mass of BP and is less exposed to Russia. My feeling is that investors will quickly look past the charges taken against Russia. Of more concern, as I noted above is the increasingly stretched valuation in terms of their daily production. Over the short term, I don’t foresee a share price hit from Russian assets, but declining production may eventually take the share price lower.

Schlumberger is a global service provider to the oilfield. While the incremental losses of revenue will impact regional results, its product and service offering is diverse enough that it can make up Russian losses in other markets.

All told each of these three companies will be impacted to some degree as discussed by leaving Russia over the short term. Over the next few years, the oil market is going to be so robust that it will be able to sustain revenues and earnings from other sources and remain viable investment vehicles for growth and income.

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia//// NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA

SRI LANKA/COVID

The pandemic has hit Sri Lanka pretty hard. It now warns that they will default on foreign debt to save dollars

(zerohedge)

Sri Lanka Warns Of Foreign Debt Default To Save Dollars Amid Socio-Economic Crisis

TUESDAY, APR 12, 2022 – 05:45 PM

The tiny island nation of Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean released a statement Tuesday that said it would default on its foreign debt, including bonds and government-to-government borrowings, amid its worst economic crisis in over seven decades.

Sri Lanka’s finance ministry said it “has had an unblemished record of external debt service since independence in 1948.”

A confluence of factors has drained the South Asian island nation’s foreign exchange reserves by more than 70% since the virus pandemic began, including the collapse in tourism and poorly timed tax cuts.

“Recent events, however, including the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the fallout from the hostilities in Ukraine, have eroded Sri Lanka’s fiscal position that continued normal servicing of external public debt obligations has become impossible,” the statement said.

Last month, the Washington-based International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned Sri Lanka’s debt is unsustainable:

“Although the government has taken extraordinary steps in an effort to remain current on all of its external indebtedness, it is now clear that this is no longer a tenable policy,” IMF said.

The socio-economic crisis unfolding on the island nation of 22 million people has already sparked mass unrest. It suffers from widespread food shortages, out-of-control inflation, and rolling blackouts.

Bloomberg notes the “unprecedented default and halted payments on foreign debt” is a move “to preserve its dwindling dollar stockpile for essential food and fuel imports.”

Newly appointed central bank governor, Nandalal Weerasinghe, said officials are set to negotiate with creditors. So far, credit rating agencies have yet to announce any downgrades. S&P Global Ratings told BBC that it had “nothing to say” about the developments in Sri Lanka.

The finance ministry said the move is “a last resort in order to prevent a further deterioration of the Republic’s financial position … It is now apparent that any further delay risks inflicting permanent damage on Sri Lanka’s economy and causing potentially irreversible prejudice to the holders of the country’s external public debts.”

Sri Lanka’s foreign reserves stood around $2bln at the end of March. However, it owes a whopping $4bln in foreign debt payments this year. Weerasinghe has increased interest rates to tackle inflation.

Sri Lanka’s dollar bonds due July 2022 hit a new record low of 46.07 cents on Tuesday. This week, the country’s stock market is halted for public holidays after shortened trading hours following rolling blackouts.

“The market was expecting this default to come,” said Carl Wong, head of fixed income at Avenue Asset Management.

“Now we have to see how the new government handles the onshore chaos while talking to IMF,” Wong said.

Nomura Holdings Inc. suggests an “Ecuador-style debt restructuring” could be on the table.

Unrest in the tiny island nation continues as protesters call for President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign over the mismanagement of the country’s finances.

As we’ve said before, the weakest countries break first in today’s high inflationary environment amid global commodity shortages. This could be the start of the domino effect as Peru, on the opposite side of the world, has been dealing with inflation riots. Here is a list of countries where social unrest could be imminent due to high inflation.

end

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0839 UP .0014 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL MIXED

USA/ YEN 125.70 UP 0.275 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3016 UP 0.0014

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 26.51 PTS OR 0.82%

Hang Sang CLOSED UP 55.24 PTS OR 0.26%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.47% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL MIXED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 55.24 OR 0.26%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.51 PTS OR 0.82%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.47%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 508.51 PTS OR 1.93%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1977.40

silver:$25.68

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 100.33 UP 4 CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.65% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.240% DOWN 0 AND 4/10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.69%// DOWN 3 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 2.38 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield ./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 69 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +0.777% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.60% AND NOW ABOVE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0864 UP .0038 or 38 basis points

USA/Japan: 125.69 UP .263 OR YEN DOWN 26 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3058 UP 56 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar UP 28 BASIS pts to 1.2607

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..UP 6.3685

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.3800

TURKISH LIRA: 14.59 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.231

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.676% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.788 DOWN 4 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 100.05 DOWN 24 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 0.27PTS OR 0.00%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 49.58 POINTS OR 0.35%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 0.48PTS OR 0.01%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 23.80 PTS OR 0.28%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 49.39 PTS OR 0.20%

WTI Oil price 102.58 12: EST

Brent Oil: 106.78 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE FALLS TO: 82.50 DOWN 27/8 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.777

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0884 UP .0058 OR UP 58 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3108 UP .01064 or UP 106 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 125.70 UP 278//YEN DOWN 28 PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2570 DOWN .0067 (CDN dollar UP 67 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 104.16

Brent OIL: 108.62

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.697 DOWN 3 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.794 DOWN 3 pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.59

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA///USA/ ROUBLE: 80.00 DOWN 2 7/8 ROUBLES (ROUBLE UP 2 7/8 ROUBLES/USA

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 344.23 PTS OR 1.01%

NASDAQ 100 UP 277.05 PTS OR 1.99%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 21.75 DOWN 2.51 PTS (10.35%)

GLD: 184.65 UP 0.88 PTS OR 0.48%

SLV/ 23.75 UP .28 PTS OR 1.19%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Bonds, Big-Tech, Bullion, Bitcoin, & Black Gold All Bid As Dollar & Dimon Dumped

WEDNESDAY, APR 13, 2022 – 04:00 PM

After yesterday’s plunge, it was only fair that US equities would rip higher today, right? As a hotter than expected PPI (are we really listening to freaking Delta’s outlook to drive the entire market?!!) actually shifted post-hike rate-cut expectations lower (hawkish!)…

Market now priced for less than 2 rate-cuts after the 9 rate-hikes this year

The tumble in rates sparked the chaos algos into panic-bid long-duration stocks – Small Caps and Nasdaq dramatically outperformed, S&P and Dow managed solid 1% gains…

And technicals helped as The Dow and S&P rallied back above their 50DMAs…

Banks and Utes were the only sectors red (on sliding rates)

Source: Bloomberg

As JPM was smacked with the ugly stick after earnings, back to one-year lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds extended their gains (yield collapse) today – especially at the short-end (2Y yields are down over 30bps from the Monday highs). The long-end remains higher in yield on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

The rapid about-face in front-end U.S. rate markets that’s seen yields tumble this week has been accompanied by significant block trades in two-year Treasury futures contracts, suggesting that an unwinding of short positions is taking place…

Source: Bloomberg

As Citigroup said, “fragile liquidity conditions overall continues to drive risk transfer into block structure.” They also underscored that short-positioning over multiple timeframes remains highly extended, albeit “deeply in profit.”

Oil prices soared today with WTI back above $104 – erasing most if not all of the Biden SPR Release drop…

“the greatest SPR release ever in the history of the world”… epic fail:

As @GreekFire reported: “Reports of Russia shutting in oil production at a more rapid rate, down close to 1 million barrels a day. So that’s why you’re seeing a quick $10 rebound, wiping out all of Biden’s release.”

With RUB now back under control again…

Source: Bloomberg

…is Putin readying to drop the hammer?

And the spike in crude means the gains from Biden’s cunning plan to lower gas prices are over…

Source: Bloomberg

US NatGas continued to scream higher (topping $7) to its highest since Jan 2015…

Gold continued to rise (as the dollar dumped today), trading at $1985 today at one-month highs…

Corn futures soared to their highest since Oct 2012…CornPopFlation?

Bitcoin bounced back above $40k (and $41k) in a big rally today (as the correlation continues with mega-cap tech)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, is this a 2008 deja vu all over again?

Source: Bloomberg

Do you feel lucky?

END

I) /MORNING TRADING/

AFTERNOON

END

II)USA data

Not good! PPI soars at a record pace and peak inflation is still far off

(zerohedge)

Producer Prices Soar At Record Pace, ‘Pipeline’ Suggests Peak Inflation Far Off

WEDNESDAY, APR 13, 2022 – 08:35 AM

After yesterday’s 41-year high print for consumer prices, this morning’s producer price index was expected to soar to new series highs and it did. PPI rose 1.4% MoM – far higher than the +1.1% MoM expected and up a stunning 11.2% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 23rd straight month of producer price rises.

The monthly gain was broad across categories.

Core PPI rose 9.2% YoY – a new cycle high – far above the 8.4% jump expected.

Margin pressure remains a concern as Producer price acceleration outpaces the ability of companies to raise consumer prices…

Source: Bloomberg

And while intermediate’ demand inflation is rolling over, it remains a dramatic signal for the pipeline ahead for producer prices…

Source: Bloomberg

But of course, The Fed hiking rates will tamp down this forest fire… and spark a stagflation storm in the meantime.

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

end

iiia) USA inflation//SHIPPING commentaries//LOG JAMS//

High prices (demand destruction) has now caused used car prices to tumble

(zerohedge)

CarMax Confirms Demand Destruction As Used-Car Prices Tumble

TUESDAY, APR 12, 2022 – 09:45 PM

Demand destruction is when prices get so high that consumers are hit with an affordability crisis. That is precisely what is happening with the used car market.

New earnings data from CarMax, the nation’s largest retailer of used cars, showed the number of used vehicles sold for the quarter ending Feb. 28 declined 6.5% while prices were at record highs. Average car prices rose 40% during the quarter, or $8,300, compared with a year ago.

A substantial increase in used car prices over the last year and the recent surge in interest rates could be the catalyst for what has recently sparked demand destruction as buyers go on strike, thus cooling red-hot prices.

“From an affordability standpoint, you’ve got interest rates going up, inflation, you’ve got the Ukraine-Russia war. There just a lot weighing on the consumer right now.

For “the lower credit spectrum customer, certainly, we feel affordability has maybe often priced them out of the market,” Bill Nash, Carmax’s CEO, told investors on a conference call.

Last week, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, a wholesale tracker of used car prices, dropped 3.8% in March from February, the largest monthly decline since April 2020 (only Feb 2007 and two prints in the fall of 2008 were worse before that).

Slumping prices may reveal stressed-out consumers are taking a step back from the market as interest rates rise.

Demand destruction is happening at a critical inflection point for the used car market. We’ve pointed out the emergence of this economic phenomenon since early February (read: here & here). Last Friday, we asked: “Are Used Car Prices About To Peak For Real This Time?”

We also noted that Manheim tends to lead used auto CPI. On Tuesday morning, government inflation data showed that used cars and trucks fell 3.8% in March. Meanwhile, headline CPI was up a shocking 8.5% YoY.

Given that used vehicle price significantly contributes to the overall headline inflation rates, this could also be a sign of peak inflation. Today, Goldman Sach’s Jan Hatzius told clients that March core CPI has “likely peaked.”

Also, DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach told CNBC that inflation has peaked, but pressures will remain persistent as he believes the Federal Reserve is behind the curve.

So what does this mean for readers? If you have a used vehicle you were probably thinking about selling, now is the time to do so. Consumers looking to purchase a used car may want to wait for prices to move lower.

end

Freight Recession Confirmed? Crashing Truck Sales Show US Growth In Jeoaprdy

WEDNESDAY, APR 13, 2022 – 12:46 PM

The recent Op-Ed by FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller warning about an imminent freight recession sparked a tidal wave of selling, but in retrospect, Fuller was spot on. As Bloomberg’s Simon White writes, real economic activity in the U.S. is slowing sharply, and “this is showing up in lower demand for new trucks and autos, and a tailing off in freight volumes, leaving transport stocks facing more downside.”

As White picks up where Fuller left off, heavy truck sales in the U.S. are a “very good leading indicator of economic activity, with 65% of the dollar value of North American freight moved by trucks. But new truck sales have been falling sharply, now at -23% on an annual basis. New auto sales are falling at a similar rate. Truck and auto sales combined are falling at a rate previously only associated with recessions.

That said, White cautions readers that “before you enter your equity sell orders, this is not a recession prediction. Recessions are signaled by a rapid regime shift across many areas of the economy and markets, and there is no sign we are in the process of this happening.” Nonetheless, this sharp decline in vehicle sales shows slowing growth is in the mail.

There’s more: freight volume growth has also been slowing. Annual growth in containers loaded at the Port of Los Angeles is steadily heading down to 0% after hitting 20% last year. Lockdowns in China are clearly having an impact here. Cities and regions accounting for over 40% of China’s 2020 GDP are in full or partial lockdown. The Shanghai freight index is 13% lower than it was six weeks ago, the sharpest decline seen in the ten-year history of the index.

As we noted over the weekend, and as White picks up in his note, “shipping rates have been falling, but this is academic as it is virtually impossible — while such a draconian lockdown is in place — for exporters to load boxes in their warehouse and move the goods on to the ships.”

To be sure, while lockdowns in China may be a proximate cause of falling shipping rates, “the remote cause is the fall in global liquidity as central banks step back from historically loose monetary policies to try to stem inflation.” As White shows in the next chart, global liquidity has collapsed and points to continued depressed shipping rates in the coming months.

That commodities, their movement around the world, and liquidity are intrinsically linked has become starkly clear in this cycle. As a commodity producer, if you don’t have the liquidity to cover the margin on your short futures positions, bankruptcy means you can’t ship and deliver your commodities, exacerbating the rise in prices and triggering more margin calls.

This liquidity and economic-demand driven decline in shipping and truck usage points to underperformance of transport stocks. The S&P transport index is down 11% from its high made last month. Transports and autos are roughly flat to the S&P year-to-date, so should begin to lag. Furthermore, being underweight medium-to-high duration sectors is a good idea when in an inflationary regime.

IIIB) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

“People Are Afraid” – LA’s Crime Surge Migrates To Wealthy Zip Codes

WEDNESDAY, APR 13, 2022 – 01:45 PM

Authored by James Varney via RealClear Investigations,

On March 22, in the broad daylight of a typically gorgeous day in Beverly Hills, thieves in hoodies and sunglasses took a sledgehammer to the plate glass window of Peter Sedghi’s boutique and furiously rummaged through the shards. In less than 90 seconds, the robbers stole more than $3 million worth of jewels. Two days later, in response to a wave of high-end robberies, the Los Angeles Police Department announced there would be no arrests. Instead, it cautioned Hollywood residents not to wear high quality jewelry in public.

“Beverly Hills is one of the most affluent, safest neighborhoods in the world and now everyone is scared,” Sedghi said.
“All of my clients – no one wears anything.”

Crime has risen dramatically in Los Angeles, as well as in many other major cities, since the start of the pandemic and last summer’s protests against police violence resulted in the slashing of many law enforcement budgets. News stories document rising fear across LA and crime has become the major issue in both the upcoming mayor’s election and a possible recall of the district attorney. It may not be surprising that issues of race and class are driving this concern, though they have a new twist.

Wealthy and predominantly white neighborhoods have experienced the sharpest upticks in a wide array of crimes, according to an analysis conducted for RealClearInvestigations by criminologist John Lott of the Crime Prevention Research Center.

The zip codes showing the largest increases are home to film and pop stars, including Beverly Hills, of “90210” fame, where Beyonce and Jay-Z have their West Coast house; Bel Air, of “Fresh Prince” Will Smith fame, where Jennifer Lopez now resides; and Los Feliz, where Katy Perry and Orlando Bloom share a house and where Angelina Jolie has resided since her divorce from Brad Pitt. Nearby, the U.S. Postal Service has suspended delivery to one neighborhood in Santa Monica – a town where celebrities including Tom Cruise, Christian Bale and Sandra Bullock reportedly have homes – because “multiple carriers have been subjected to assault and threats of assault.”

Lott’s analysis (data here), which correlates census and LAPD crime statistics for the period January 2019 to January 2022, also reveals that those neighborhoods now account for much greater shares of the total number of crimes committed in Los Angeles. It shows that the richer and whiter the area, the greater the increase in both raw crime totals and percentages of total city crime. This includes a wide range of felonies, from robbery, burglary, shoplifting and car theft to aggravated assault and rape. Although poor and minority neighborhoods still experience the largest total number of crimes, including violent crimes such as murder, the shift to relatively safer neighborhoods is pronounced.

While the total number of rapes fell in Los Angeles during the 37-month period studied, their share spiked in predominantly white neighborhoods – rising 18.2% in neighborhoods where they comprise 81% to 100% of residents.

Lott’s analysis found a similar trend for aggravated assault.

Lott also found that while the number of reported robberies across the city has fallen slightly, the share of total crimes increased sharply in wealthier and whiter zip codes, rising by 11.8% annually over the 37 months in the most heavily white neighborhoods.

“For median house values, the share of robberies fell for the highest valued homes by 4.9%, but they rose by 9.7% annually for zip codes where the median house was $1 million to $1.5 million, and by 15.2% for zip codes where the median house was $1.5 million to $2 million,” Lott said.

Fear is more pronounced than ever in posh areas, according to several Angelenos familiar with the turf of the rich and famous. This is evidently in part because the fancy wheels often seen on the streets of Beverly Hills, Brentwood, or other upscale communities have also been the prime targets of thieves, Lott’s analysis indicated.

Although Lott only analyzed data from Los Angeles, anecdotal evidence and news reports suggest similar trends may be occurring in Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, and other cities experiencing crime waves.

“You see people just smashing glass and stealing on the Miracle Mile in Chicago, videos of people in cities just carrying bags full of clothes they’ve stolen,” Lott said. “I don’t think we’ve ever seen crime quite like that in the U.S.

“There has surely been a change in where the crimes are occurring, moving from lower income to higher property values and to more places. I was surprised by the extent of it.”

Just what has made once more insulated neighborhoods vulnerable is difficult to pinpoint. RealClearInvestigations reached out to the LAPD and the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department, as well as the Beverly Hills Police Department, but none of the three agencies returned phone calls or responded to emailed questions. Details on the race or ethnicity of those involved in the crimes were thus generally unavailable. Also unavailable were official assessments of whether any of the incidents constituted hate crimes.

Lott noted how California voters have moved the needle on crime in recent years. Proposition 47 decriminalized a number of theft and drug charges, making them misdemeanors, as it did several “non-violent” felonies. Voters also approved Proposition 57, which allows for early release of non-violent offenders.

Los Angeles and other urban centers, including the Washington, D.C. area, have also been plagued recently by the phenomenon of “crime tourism,” in which organized gangs from South America obtain visas online and jet into the Golden State to burglarize residences – operations that have targeted luxury homes.

“They’re coming here for the purpose of targeting neighborhoods,” a cop in neighboring Ventura County told ABC’s LA affiliate on March 23. “Not violent crimes, but they’re going after the big bucks.”

The Los Angeles Times reported this week that more than a dozen gangs “are targeting some of the city’s wealthiest residents … sending out crews in multiple cars to find, follow and rob people driving high-end vehicles or wearing expensive jewelry, according to police.”

Lili Bosse, recently elected mayor of Beverly Hills for the third time, said she sees the crime hitting once seemingly insulated zones as an extension of what is happening to the entire city. “We live in chaos, it seems like Gotham City,” she told RCI. “People have been traumatized regardless of where they live. It’s not just a matter of physical safety, this affects one’s sense of mental well-being. In Los Angeles, there is a sense of anxiety and uncertainty.”

Indeed, a look at “other theft” outside of burglary and motor vehicles also shows a notable shift toward Tinseltown’s fabled moneyed quarters.

Between 2019 and 2022, other thefts were up 16.7% where median home prices top $2 million, and up 8.7% where homes range from $1.5 to $2 million, “which is expensive even in Los Angeles,” Lott noted. Meanwhile, where homes are between $400,000 and $500,000, other theft dropped 5.5% and 4.6% where the median home is below $400,000, the analysis showed.

These shifts are in addition to some headline-grabbing incidents that have shaken the rich and famous. Last December, Jacqueline Avant, the African-American wife of Motown Records chief Clarence Avant, was murdered in her Beverly Hills home, and in January Brianna Kupfer, a white UCLA graduate student, was killed in a random attack at a luxury furniture store in Brentwood.

Bosse stressed crime in her recent victory, and the issue has taken center stage in Los Angeles politics. The mayor’s race has seen billionaire developer Rick Caruso make the rise in crime a centerpiece of his campaign, vowing to restore the ranks and funding of the LAPD, which has seen both slashed since George Floyd was murdered by a Minneapolis police officer in 2020. Last July, the city council voted to cut LAPD money by $150 million.

But even more than the mayor’s race, the disgust and vulnerability felt by many Angelenos is fueling the recall effort against District Attorney George Gascon. Bankrolled by more than $3 million from George Soros-funded PACs, Gascon came to office with a promise to “turn our court system upside down.”

The recall-Gascon forces hope to follow the path of famously liberal San Francisco, which put on the ballot a recall of prograssive District Attorney Chesa Boudin – who has delivered on his promise to radically reform criminal justice since his election in 2019. And the money flowing to the Gascon effort would seem to reflect the trends detected in Lott’s analysis for RCI.

Big money Democrats who live in Los Angeles’ toniest districts have contributed to Gascon’s recall, according to a recent article in Los Angeles magazine which cited an exclusive look at still unreleased donors’ lists.

The article named supermarket heir and Bill Clinton buddy Ron Burkle, movie titans like Mike Medavoy, founder of Orion Pictures, and Hillary Clinton campaign bundlers such as Jordan Kaplan of Pacific Palisades.

But among the most ardent supporters of Gascon’s recall are the ranks of his deputy district attorneys who are already engaged in litigation against some of his left-wing initiatives, such as refusing to file enhancements on charges that deputy DAs say California law requires of prosecutors.

“The DA doesn’t ask for bail on non-violent offenders and criminals aren’t held accountable for having a gun,” said Eric Siddall, president of the Association of Deputy District Attorneys, their union. “That’s one reason you’re seeing that in neighborhoods traditionally considered safe – no one is detained, no one is held accountable any longer.”

Siddall believes the numbers showing a big shift to more privileged Los Angeles neighborhoods could be less pronounced because “non-violent property crimes are the most underreported of all, which happens for factors like the relationship people have with the police, the victim feeling like it serves no real purpose to report it, or they might fear retaliation.”

In more white-collar circles, however, Siddall said, fear of crime is changing behaviors.

“Anecdotally, I can’t tell you how many people have come up to me and asked if I could recommend a certain kind of firearm,” he said. “People are signing up for gun training courses, and these are people who never before in their lives ever thought of having a gun.”

Gascon was an architect of Proposition 47, the decriminalization measure, and a backer of Proposition 57, the early-release measure. Momentum may be growing for a repeal of the first initiative, along with possibility of a major change among Los Angeles’ top elected positions.

For now, however, that offers little solace to Angelenos who aren’t used to feeling crime’s pinch.

“A lot of people are afraid,” Sedghi said. “Everyone is thinking about crime and worried about being a victim. People are looking behind them all the time while driving home, afraid they are being followed.”

END

iv)swamp stories

D’Souza: Covering For The Big Guy | ZeroHedge

Inbox

And who will hold the “big guy” to account when he does not know where he is most of the time. While Blinken and Nuland and Sullivan run the show for whose benefit and Agenda? Is the military pushback because they are a going a bridge too far? Why does anyone want to sacrifice themselves for these folks? Having anyone die or be displaced is a sad tale for the whims of such people. Why not simply ignore them? Because at the rate the world is turning away soon this will be a reality and this will destroy USD hegemony and change the West beyond what anyone can imagine.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/dsouza-covering-big-guy

D’Souza: Covering For The Big Guy

Commentary authored by Dinesh D’Souza via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The mainstream media continues to cover for the Big Guy. The big guy is, of course, Joe Biden. And the Hunter Biden scandal has always been about Joe Biden. Why? Because it’s a family racket. Just as the Corleone family operated as a single unit, with Don Corleone in charge of the corrupt operation, so the Biden family operates as a unit, with Joe Biden as its chairman and ultimate authority.Hunter Biden attends his father Joe Biden’s inauguration as the 46th President of the United States on the West Front of the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Jan. 20, 2021. (Jonathan Ernst/Pool/Reuters)

Of course, the Biden family knows that Joe’s name cannot be freely used. That’s why Hunter Biden and his associates are emphatic in their email and other communications to leave Joe’s name out of their transactions. Hunter associate James Gilliar at one point texted Tony Bobulinski, then a Biden family business partner, “Don’t mention Joe being involved.” Emails appear to typically refer to Joe Biden with code names like “Celtic” or the “Big Guy.”

Yet it seems the big guy was always in on the deals. One of Hunter’s emails specifically references a 10 percent cut for Joe Biden. Moreover, Bobulinski said he personally met with Joe Biden to discuss Hunter’s business dealings. This is important because Joe Biden has consistently denied he knew anything about his son’s commercial activities.

This is the same Joe Biden who took his son on board Air Force Two to China, where Hunter Biden struck an arrangement with business entities connected with the Chinese Communist Party. These arrangements gave him a stake in joint ventures with the Chinese worth tens of millions of dollars. Not since the Clinton Foundation has a high American official allegedly sold access on the international market—and quite likely the Biden family racket was modeled on the Clinton Foundation.

Joe Biden even apparently shared offices with Hunter Biden. In 2017, Hunter emailed his office manager to “have keys made available for new office mates,” and one of them was Joe Biden. Yet when Press Secretary Jen Psaki was asked about this recently, she put on her customary deadpan expression and merely said that Joe Biden was “not office mates” with Hunter Biden. Nothing further. End of story.

Investigative reporter Peter Schweizer has documented Biden family deals with foreign entities in Ukraine, China, Costa Rica, and elsewhere. It’s a worldwide operation, and all the trails lead back to one man, Joe Biden. Without his name and at least some level of active participation, there would be no racket to carry out.

Despite the evidence closely tying the Bidens together in these deals, the media has for ideological reasons been highly protective of their man in the White House. At first, the media treated the Hunter Biden laptop and its incriminating contents as Russian disinformation. In this, the press was assisted by 50 former intelligence officials who were apparently willing to lie to the American people to shield Joe Biden from his own corruption.

Now the laptop has been confirmed both by the New York Times and the Washington Post to be legitimate. Tellingly, not one of the 50 intelligence officials has recanted or expressed any contrition about being part of a public deception scheme. Neither has the media. Instead, the new narrative is: True, Hunter Biden sold access in his family’s name, but Joe Biden had nothing to do with it.

This has all the persuasive power of saying that Don Corleone knew nothing about his family’s activities and played no part in them whatever. It makes no sense. And Joe Biden’s direct involvement in his son’s activities has now been confirmed with a new email that has emerged. The email involves a college recommendation that Joe Biden wrote for a Chinese businessman who was partners with Hunter Biden.

Jonathan Li is the CEO of a company BHR that entered into a joint venture with Hunter Biden’s company Rosemont Seneca. Hunter also held a 10 percent stake in BHR. In 2017, Li sent an email to Hunter Biden and his business associates Devon Archer and Jim Bulger. “Gentlemen,” he wrote, “Please find the attached resume of my son, Chris Li. He is applying [to] the following colleges for this year.”

Li listed Brown University, Cornell University, and New York University. He also attached an “updated version” of his son’s resume. So then what happened? Let’s follow the email trail. “Let’s see how we can be helpful here to Chris,” Bulger responded to Hunter and the gang.

A few weeks later, on Feb. 18, 2017, Eric Schwerin, president of Rosemont Seneca, replied to Li. “Jonathan,” he wrote, “Hunter asked me to send you a copy of the recommendation letter that he asked his father to write on behalf of Christopher for Brown University.” In other words, Joe Biden wrote the letter.

Is it reasonable, at this point, to continue to say Joe Biden told the truth when he said he had nothing to do with his son’s business? Is it believable that he was never in on the deals, or stood to benefit from them? No, it’s not. On the contrary, it seems that Hunter Biden was Joe Biden’s frontman. This is a Joe Biden scandal, not a Hunter Biden scandal. If the circuitous family racket can be likened to the coils of a snake, Joe Biden is the head of the snake.

Views expressed in this article are the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

The King Report (including swamp stories)

The King Report April 13 2022 Issue 6738

Independent View of the News

US Tells Non-Essential Government Workers to Leave Shanghai – BBG on Monday night
Due to a Covid surge and the impact of Chinese restrictions…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-12/u-s-tells-non-essential-government-workers-to-leave-shanghai

The US 30-year hit 2.85% during early Asian trading; the 10-year hit 2.83%.

Though US March CPI increased 8.5% y/y and Core registered +6.5% y/y, the report is fraudulent and greatly understates true inflation. Wall Street might trade off bogus economic data, but consumers vote by the reality of their checkbooks.

NBC, perhaps inadvertently, explains why the March CPI Report is fraudulent.

NBC News: Rental rates have now experienced eight-consecutive months of increases, and now sit above the pre-pandemic trend. Rents climbed 4.4 percent in March year-over-year (in CPI Report), compared with 4.2 percent in February. The average rent for a two-bedroom home in the U.S. is now about $2,000, according to research from Rent.com — up 22 percent on a year-over-year basis…
    However, “core” inflation, which excludes volatile food and gas prices, climbed 6.5 percent year-over-year and 0.3 percent month-over-month — slightly less than the figures expected by FactSet analysts. The soft reading was driven by the biggest drop in used vehicle prices since 1969…
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/inflation-march-2022-hits-record-high-data-stats-details-rcna23654?s=02

@jeannasmialek: The slowing owed to a huge decline in used car prices: -3.8%. Industry experts say that could be partly about delayed tax refunds. (Or BLS legerdemain)

Had the BLS used real/industry rents, which is over 31% of CPI and ~41% of Core CPI, March CPI and Core CPI would be over 13%.  ‘Food at home’ inflation (+10%) is greatly understated. Egg prices doubled y/y in March due to Avian Flu and have soared further this month.

@EricBalchunas: “If we used the same metrics to calc inflation that we used back when Carter was POTUS we would be at a 16 handle on the CPI, which is higher than inflation under Carter.  The Fed should be replaced with the 2yr treasury. You could get rid of 800 economists… — Gundlach

Inflation Is Recasting Americans’ Relationship with Money — and Each Other
New data from the Harris Poll show 84% of Americans plan to cut back spending as a result of price spikes. It’s also changing consumer behaviors in some unexpected ways…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-12/how-high-is-inflation-most-americans-cut-back-spending-on-gas-food-sports

Sen. Joe Manchin, http://D-W.Va, on Tuesday blamed the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve for inflation soaring over the past year at its fastest pace in more than 40 years. https://bit.ly/38Ldehf

Yesterday’s King Report: There could be a relief rally after the March CPI is released.  Caveat: Since Biden ascended the throne, someone has consistently forced ESMs higher after bad news to change the negative narrative and market psychology
. Oil, gasoline, gold, and bonds rallied sharply early on Tuesday. The dollar rallied moderately.   Bonds lost most of their gain by the afternoon.

@CBSNews: Pres. Biden announces the EPA will issue an emergency waiver to allow a gasoline blend that includes 15% ethanol (10% was cap) to be sold across the U.S. this summer to increase fuel supply.

Biden admits he’s ‘starting to bore’ himself during Iowa speech on inflation
“Folks, the list goes on. I’m starting to bore myself here, but it’s important stuff — I think, I think.”…
https://nypost.com/2022/04/12/biden-says-hes-starting-to-bore-myself-in-sleepy-iowa-speech/

@RNCResearch: Did a bird just poop on Joe Biden?   https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1513979276240072716

British shares fall after jobs data, Rolls-Royce top FTSE 100 loser
Official figures showed Britain’s jobless rate fell below its level immediately before the coronavirus pandemic, while employment rose by a weaker-than-expected 10,000 and job vacancies hit a record high in the three months to March…  http://reut.rs/3E4d3Jk

Less than 10 percent of Americans say COVID still a ‘serious crisis:’ poll https://trib.al/k2Jevo9

Positive aspects of previous session
Relief rally or manipulation to change narrative after CPI release to 9:52 ET.
Bonds rallied over a point in the morning, but lost most of the rally in the afternoon
@ggreenwald: The widely reported pervasive fear among the Twitter workforce that Elon Musk may endanger or even end their systemic censorship regime illustrates how central of a tactic internet censorship has become for US liberalism. Information control is vital to their worldview.

@anderscorr: China uses DJI geodata from its drones sold to Ukraine, and gives the data to Russians who kill the Ukrainian operators – and still the US Defense Department is confused about whether to buy drones from China. DoD should buy American and only American. https://theregister.com/2021/07/26/pen

@AsaadHannaa: For the first time I see the Saudi TV mocking the US administration.
https://twitter.com/AsaadHannaa/status/1513681354348716035

Outrage as North Carolina medical school BACKS woke medical student who tweeted about deliberately injuring patient for mocking her pronoun badge
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10707881/North-Carolina-medical-school-BACKS-woke-medical-student-deliberately-injured-patient.html

(GOP Sen.) Toomey Says Kashkari’s Advocacy Shows Need for Fed Overhaul
    GOP senator says political issue not related to Fed mandate
    Minneapolis Fed president backs bid to make education a right
“Your persistent use of your position as president of the Minneapolis Fed, as well as your use of Minneapolis Fed resources, including Minneapolis Fed employees and the Minneapolis Fed’s official website, to lobby in support of the Page Amendment plainly violates this provision,” he said, referring to the proposal…  https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/toomey-says-kashkari-s-advocacy-shows-need-for-fed-overhaul

Today – Can manipulators generate a Weird Wednesday upside expiry squeeze?

The S&P 500 Index closed modestly below 4400, which is more important support than 4450 was. So, the game for bulls will be to force the S&P 500 Index decisively above 4400 and then orchestrate a Weird Wednesday upside manipulation to squeeze expiry April calls.

Though PPI is not as impactful as CPI, today’s March PPI could affect ESMs before the NYSE open.

Expected earnings: JPM 2.17, BLK 8.92, DAL -1.25, FAST .45, FRC 1.90

ESMs are +18.00 at 21:30 ET on buying for Weird Wednesday and the start of earnings season.

Expected economic data: March PPI 1.1% m/m, 10.6% y/y; Core PPI 0.5% m/m, 8.4% y/y

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4424; 100-day MA: 4528; 150-day MA: 4520; 200-day MA: 4494
DJIA 50-day MA: 34,354; 100-day MA: 34,942; 150-day MA: 35,014; 200-day MA: 35,017

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4153.02 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4547.45 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4550.10 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4458.98 triggers a buy signal

While Everyone Else Is Kicking Themselves for Voting for Biden, College-Educated Women Are Doubling Down – “[T]he gender gap between Democrats and Republicans is actually a marriage gap,” noted columnist Mona Charen in 2014, another midterm year. “Single women vote disproportionately for Democrats and married women vote by a comfortable margin for Republicans. The decline of marriage inclines more women to vote Democrat.”… https://t.co/BsTMnu2xig

@politicalelle: Two Americas are emerging: one that lets kids be kids, the other that repurposes children to be affirmation factories for adults. This won’t end well.

@MonicaCrowley: The only reason Al Sharpton is warning Dems about spiking crime, skyrocketing inflation and insane gas prices is because they are hemorrhaging minority support like crazy. They’re freaking out.

The despicable Joe Biden – Even his continual rebranding can’t hide his profound dishonesty
The hard, sad truth is that Mr. Biden has always been a dishonest, despicable man — both in his private life and publicly. Before becoming vice president, Mr. Biden was mainly known around Washington as an insufferable senator with verbal diarrhea and a loose grip on the truth. One of his many quests for the White House ended after he was caught plagiarizing speeches.
    However, Mr. Biden’s profound dishonesty is not confined to just politics. He is willing to lie about anything, even the most sacred aspects of his life…
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/apr/11/the-despicable-joe-biden/

Obama defends his actions in Crimea in 2014 and says Putin has become more ‘reckless’ since then
In February 2014, Putin, trying to salvage Russia’s lost influence in its former Soviet bloc country of Ukraine, invaded and annexed the Crimea region. Obama, who was president at the time, placed economic sanctions on Moscow but was criticized for not issuing harsh enough measures. Republicans piled on, saying the United States should have sent arms to Ukraine… https://t.co/9phjteYJIb

Georgia elections chief cracks down on non-citizens seeking to vote, refers 1,600 for prosecution
https://justthenews.com/nation/states/center-square/raffensperger-says-he-referred-more-1600-georgia-election-cases

Newsweek’s @ShaolinTom: Vehicle of interest found in Brooklyn subway shooting, U-Haul van w Arizona plates AL31408 located at King’s Highway & West 3rd Street in Bensonhurst. Suspect believed to have driven from New Mexico, was previously known to FBI & cleared in 2019. (See the pattern?)

Brooklyn subway shooting suspect was on FBI’s terrorist radar until 2019 https://trib.al/XjP0AU4

@leslibless: NYPD says the video surveillance did not work in the subway because of “user error,” when police didn’t change frequencies to switch it on this morning.

Let us close today with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter interviewing Martin Armstrong

a must view…

The West Needs WWIII – Martin Armstrong

The West Needs WWIII – Martin Armstrong

By Greg Hunter On April 12, 2022 In Market AnalysisNo Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong thinks the New World Order’s so-called “Great Reset” plan for humanity now needs war to try and make it work. It could happen in the next few weeks. Armstrong explains, “What they are trying to do is deliberately poke the bear. . . . They are increasing the pressure on just about everything under the sun. The West needs World War III. They just need it. The real problem here is they went to negative interest rates in 2014 in Europe. They have been unable to stimulate the economy, and Keynesian economics have completely failed. . . . I would say this is mismanagement of government on a global scale. The problem is that central banks have no control over the economy. Add to this, this type of inflation is substantially different than a speculative boom. This inflation is based upon shortages. These morons with covid . . . with lockdowns, ended up destroying the supply chains. . . . Things that are there, I buy extra of because next time it might be gone. So, everybody is increasing their hoarding. . . . So, what we have with Europe, with its negative interest rates, they have wiped out all the pension funds. They need 8% to break even, not negative rates. There is not a pension fund in Europe that is solvent at this stage of the game. . . . The European government is collapsing. If they end up defaulting, you are going to have millions of people down there with pitch forks storming the parliament. So, to avoid that, they need war. . . . The Biden Administration has deliberately destroyed the world economy.”

If there is war in Europe, the “U.S. dollar will get stronger initially and not weaker” according to Armstrong. Armstrong also says, “This is all deliberate. There is no return to normal here. Unfortunately, this is where we are headed.”

Armstrong contends, war in Europe could break out in a couple of weeks, and the EU and NATO are pushing this. Armstrong says, “They want Russia to do something. . . . This thing with Russia is the same thing all over again. Unfortunately, we are headed for war.”

Armstrong also talks in detail about the following subjects: Digital currency and why the Deep State is pushing so hard for it; gold, silver, food and just about everything going way up in price because of shortages. Armstrong recommends that people “stockpile two years of food.” Armstrong has other tips for what the common man needs to stock up on; Armstrong also says President Trump is the only President he knew that cared about U.S. soldiers dying in combat. This is why Trump wanted to bring the troops home, and the Deep State warmongers hated him for it. Armstrong also gives his predictions on who wins the midterm election this coming November. Will it matter which party comes out on top?

In closing, Armstrong says, “We are not getting back to normal. The system is crumbling from within, and it’s just like the fall of Rome, basically. (There is much more in the nearly 1 hour interview.)

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong cycle expert and author of “Manipulating the World Economy,” which has 70 fresh new pages in the 5th edition of this very popular book for 4.12.22.

The West Needs WWIII – Martin Armstrong

After the Interview:

Robert Hryniak	10:04 AM (2 minutes ago)
to

Robert Hryniak	9:25 AM (20 minutes ago)
to

Robert Hryniak	5:14 PM (3 minutes ago)
to

Robert Hryniak	3:01 PM (20 minutes ago)
to