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comex notices/

: JPMorgan stopped/total issued 204/628

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,981.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/13/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 04/18/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

072 C GOLDMAN 333 24
132 C SG AMERICAS 102
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 14
365 C ED&F MAN CAPITA 2
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 12
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 39
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 36
661 C JP MORGAN 292 204
685 C RJ OBRIEN 2
709 C BARCLAYS 87
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 1 9
880 H CITIGROUP 83
905 C ADM 15

TOTAL: 628 628
MONTH TO DATE: 25,127

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR APRIL. CONTRACT 628 NOTICE(S) FOR 62,800 OZ (1.9533 TONNES)

total notices so far: 25,127 contracts for 2,512,700 oz (78.155 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

6 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 30,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 1086 : for 5,430,000 oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $8.95

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 11.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.42 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS

AT THE SLV// A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WHOPPING DEPOSIT OF 4.355 MILLION OF INTO THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 569.676 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 6416 CONTRACTS TO 165,229 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE HUGE GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.27 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.27) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OUT ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 8090 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY ARE VERY ANXIOUS TO GET OUT OF DODGE!!/. II)WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 4.305 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 450,000 OZ//NEW STANDING: 6.010 MILLION OZ// V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS : —-624 (which is huge)

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS APRIL. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL:

TOTAL CONTACTS for 10 days, total 8266 contracts: 41.330 million oz OR 4.13MILLION OZ PER DAY. (827 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL NO OF OZ UNDERGOING EFP TO LONDON 8266 CONTRACTS X 5,000 PER CONTRACT:

EQUATES TO: 41,330 MILLION OZ

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 41.330 MILLION OZ (LOOKS LIKE OUR BANKERS ARE NOW LOATHE TO ISSUE EFP’S)

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 6416 WITH OUR $0.27 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// WEDNESDAY THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1050 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR. OF 4.305 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 450,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING: 6.010MILLION OZ/// .. WE HAD AN HUGE SIZED GAIN 7466 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 37.33 MILLION OZ WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE.

WE HAD 6 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 30,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 1391 CONTRACTS TO 579,030 AND CLOSER TO NEW RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: -191 CONTRACTS.

THE BIS HAS ABANDONED THE GOLD COMEX TRADING!!!

THE SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.80//COMEX GOLD TRADING/WEDNESDAY /.AS IN SILVER WE MUST HAD HUGE BANKER/ALGO SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL AT 78.33 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.80 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 3365 OI CONTRACTS (10.466 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1975 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 579,030.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3365, WITH 1391 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1975 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3556 CONTRACTS OR 11.060 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1975) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (1581,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 3556 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING ,2.) HUGE INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 78.33 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 12,300 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 81.608 TONNES/// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION ///. ,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI. GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

APRIL

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :

24,062 CONTRACTS OR 2,406,200 OR 74.84 TONNES 10 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2406 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 74.84TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2020, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 74.84/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.11% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 74.84 TONNES (THIS IS GOING TO BE A LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF MAY.WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (MAR), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 6416 CONTRACT OI AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 1050 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY 1050 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 6416 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1050 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 7466 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 37.38 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.27 IN PRICE.

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries/cryptocurrencies

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 38.82 PTS OR 1.22% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 143.71 PTS OR 0.67% /The Nikkei closed UP 328.51 PTS OR 1.72% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .65% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.3725 /Oil UP TO 102.93 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 107.28 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN // ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3725 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3833: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER/

a)NORTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 1391 CONTRACTS TO 5790300 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS SMALL COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN OF $8.80 IN GOLD PRICING WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (1975 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING TO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1975 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 JUNE :1975 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1975 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 3365 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1975 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 1391 CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF GOLD $8.80.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL (81.608),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 81.608

THE BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT ROSE $8.80) AND AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN FLEECING ANY LONGS AS WE HAVE REGISTERED A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 10.466 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL (81.608 TONNES)…

WE HAD — 181 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3365 CONTRACTS OR 336500 OZ OR 10.466 TONNES

Estimated gold volume today: 135,323/// extremely poor

Confirmed volume yesterday: 147,601 contracts poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR APRIL ’22 COMEX GOLD //APRIL 14

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	27,306.870 oz Brinks
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	36,459.234OZBrinks 999 kilobars Manfra 135 kilobars
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	9507.824 oz Brinks
No of oz served (contracts) today	628 notice(s)62,800 OZ 1.9533 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	1110 contracts 111,000 oz 3.452 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	25,127 notices2,512,700 OZ 78.155 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

For today:

dealer deposits 2

i)) Into Manfra; 4340.385 (135 kilobars)

ii) Into Brinks 32,118.849 oz (999 kilobars)

total dealer deposit 36,459.234 oz//

No dealer withdrawals

1 customer deposit

i) Into Brinks 9507.824 oz.

total customer deposit 9507.824 oz

1 customer withdrawals

i) Out of Brinks 27,306.870 oz

total customer withdrawal: 27,306.870 oz /

ADJUSTMENTS: customer to dealer/HSBC: 16,107.651 oz

dealer to customer:

a) JPMorgan 96.453 3 kilobars

b) Loomis: 289.359 oz 9 kilobars

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL.

For the front month of APRIL we have an oi of 1738 contracts having LOST 11 contracts

We had 134 notices filed yesterday so we GAINED 123 contracts or an additional 12,300 oz will stand for delivery at the comex

May saw a GAIN of 9 contracts to stand at 3514

June saw a LOSS of 1627 contracts UP to 478,446 contracts

We had 628 notice(s) filed today for 62,800 oz FOR THE APRIL 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 292 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 628 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 204 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 24 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2021. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (25,127) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (APRIL 1738 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 628 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,623,700 OZ OR 81.608 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of APRIL.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:

No of notices filed so far (25,127) x 100 oz+ (1738) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (628} x 100 oz} which equals 2,623,700 oz standing OR 81.608 TONNES in this active delivery month of APRIL.

We GAINED 12,300 oz as a QUEUE. jump as our banker friends scrounge around for some gold

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 81.608 TONNES (A WHOPPER FOR AN APRIL ( ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

191,133,764.7, oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

99,258.893 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

54,339.114oz PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

243,923.704, oz JPM No 2 7.58 TONNES

898,821.330 oz pledged Brinks/27,96 TONNES

International Delaware:: 0

Loomis: 18,615.429 oz

total pledged gold: 1,884,464.742 oz 58.61 tonnes

TOTAL REGISTERED AND ELIG GOLD AT THE COMEX: 35,926,719.161 OZ (1117,47 TONNES)

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 18,307,454.657 OZ (569.43 tonnes)

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,619,264.504 OZ (548.03 tonnes)

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 15,734,800.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 489.418 tonnes

END

APRIL 2022 CONTRACT MONTH//SILVER//APRIL 14

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	976,930.873 oz Brinks Delaware JPMorgan
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	1,894,462.082 oz Brinks CNT Delaware JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)	6CONTRACT(S)30,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	116 contracts (580,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1086 contracts 5,430,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

we had 0 deposit into the dealer

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 4 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 548,197.100 oz

ii) Into Brinks: 644,435.770 oz

iii) Into Delaware: 7215.812 oz

iv) Into CNT: 604,614.300 oz

total deposit: 1,804,462.082 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 176.472 million oz/335.171 million =52.64% of comex

i) Comex withdrawals: 3

i) Out of JPM 581,358.500 oz

ii) Out of Brinks 1394,549.790 oz

iii( Out of Delaware: 1023.583 oz

total withdrawal 976,930.873 oz

1 adjustments: dealer to customer//Manfra 4940.380 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 86.347 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 335.181 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF APRIL OI: 122, HAVING GAINED 80 CONTRACTS FROM MONDAY. We had 10 notices filed yesterday,

so we GAINED 90 contracts or an additional 450,000 oz will stand on this side of the pond

MAY HAD A LOSS OF 4395 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 69,861 contracts

JUNE HAD A GAIN OF 61 TO STAND AT 1057

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 6 for 30,000 oz

Comex volumes: 61,042// est. volume today// fair/

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 86,178 contracts ( strong )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1086 x 5,000 oz = 5,430,000oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (122) and the number of notices served upon today 6 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL./2021 contract month: 1086 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of APRIL (122) – number of notices served upon today (6) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month equates 5,560,000 oz. .

We GAINED 90 contracts or an additional 450,000 oz will stand on this side of the pond

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.90: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A ,ASSOVE DEPOSIT OF 11.32 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1104.42 TONNES

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP $8.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 12/WITH GOLD UP $26.95: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.61 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 1093.10 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.40 //A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1090.49 TONNES

APRIL 8/WITH GOLD UP $7.70: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1088.75 TONNES

APRIL 7/WITH GOLD UP $13.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.30 TONNES

APRIL 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.68 TONNES FROM THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.30 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.70: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.75 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1089.98 TONNES

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $.70//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.73 TONNES

APRIL 1///WITH GOLD DOWN $19.00 : A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.73 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD UP $13.30 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD FROM MONDAY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES FROM THE GLD:INVENTORY RESTS AT 1091.44

MARCH 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.18 TONNES

MARCH 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.60 : A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1093.18 TONNES

MARCH 24/WITH GOLD UP $24.95: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1087.66 TONNES

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $15.75//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1083.60 TONNES

MARCH 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD DEPOSITED INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1083.60 TONES

MARCH 21//WITH GOLD UP $.25 : A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.00 TONNES INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1082.44 TONES

MARCH 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.55 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.44 TONES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $33.50: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.61 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.44 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.50//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.33 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.83 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.16 TONNES

MARCH 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $22.75, HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//STRANGE: A DEPOSIT OF 2.62 TONNES INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1064.16 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.54 TONNES

MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $11.55: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.06 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.28 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $53.85//A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.64 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.34 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $46.10: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 8.42 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1062.70 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD UP $28.40 A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.06 TONNES INTO THE GLD..//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1054.28 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.40//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.22 TONNES

CLOSING INVENTORY FOR THE GLD//1104.42 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS : A MONSTROUS CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.355 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 569.676 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP 66 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 831,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.521 MILLION OZ

APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS :NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 7/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS : A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.386 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//INVENTORY RESETS AT 566.352 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A DEPOSIT OF 6.326 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY REST AT 564.966 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.302 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 558.647 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 2.171 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.345 MILLION OZ

MARCH 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 30 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.847 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 554.167 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 552.320 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 24/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.092 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 552.320 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 TODAY : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 21/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.217 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 550.288 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/ WITH SILVER UP 72 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.049 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLVV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 548.071 MILLION OZ

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 56 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 462,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.560 MLLION O

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.022 MILLION OZ

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 64 CENTS TODAY; STRANGE A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.125 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.022 MILLIONOZ

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ

MARCH 10/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.174 MILLION OZ OF FAKE SILVER.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.897 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 88 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.217 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS A 548.071 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.854 MILLION OZ/

SLV FINAL INVENTORY FOR TODAY: 569.676 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: Peak Inflation Is Just Wishful Thinking

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 02:25 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

As expected, the March Consumer Price Index was smoking hot with a 1.2% month-on-month increase and an 8.5% annual gain. But the mainstream found a silver lining in the numbers. Core inflation wasn’t quite as high as expected leading many to conclude that we’ve reached “peak inflation.” In his podcast, Peter Schiff said this is just wishful thinking.

The March CPI reflected the first impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the spiking oil prices that followed. Although the CPI was slightly above the consensus expectation, many thought it would surprise to the upside. Peter said some people were relieved the numbers weren’t even higher.

The annual CPI gain was the biggest since 1981, but Peter reminded us that this is basically comparing apples to oranges.

Forty years ago, we used entirely different CPI than we use today. And as far as I can tell, we are generally missing the mark by about half, meaning that if we use the 1981 CPI to measure the 2022 price increases, we probably would see a year-over-year rise of 17%, which is twice eight-and-a-half.”

Projections for March’s core CPI, excluding more volatile food and energy prices, were 0.5% month-on-month. It came lower, at 0.3%, which was below the range of estimates.

That was a good number as far as the markets were concerned because the core CPI didn’t go up nearly as much as thought.”

And the year-over-year core number came in at 6.5%, a little better than the expected 6.6%.

A little worse on the headline. A little better on the core. But overall, I guess the whisper numbers were that all these numbers would come in hot, and since they didn’t, the market initially was relieved.”

But even though core CPI was lower than expected, 0.3% is still a high number. If you annualize that print, it’s still 3.7% per year, almost double the Fed’s 2% target.

Peter pointed out it doesn’t make any sense to look at year-over-year core inflation if you’re going to take some solace in the fact that inflation is not so bad if we strip out food and energy.

Families can’t strip out food and energy. They can’t survive without food and energy. When food and energy prices are up year-over-year big, that’s not volatility. That’s a trend. And you can’t ignore that trend when you’re trying to calculate inflation and determine whether or not you have a problem. You have a big problem.”

Also, in a normal economy, core prices should drop as energy and food prices should rise. As people spend more on food and energy, they have less to spend on other things.

So, core prices should be falling as the food and energy prices are rising. But the reason that all prices are rising is because everybody has got more money. We’ve got more money to buy food and energy, and we’ve got more money to buy everything else. Where’s all that money coming from to buy all this stuff? It’s coming from the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is creating all the inflation in the core and in the headline. It’s not Putin and it wasn’t COVID.”

We know the markets were anxious about the CPI data because all of the bond yields hit highs the night before the numbers came out. Bond traders were bracing for a hot CPI. When the numbers were relatively benign – at least not as bad as expected – the bond market rallied.

Interestingly, all of the inversions in the yield curve disappeared.

I think the significance of this un-inversion of the yield curve … I think what the bond market is potentially forecasting is that based on this so-called benign number, maybe the Fed won’t have to hike as much as people thought, and so that’s why the shorter end of the curve got an improvement because maybe the Fed won’t have to jack rates up as much.”

There could also be some sense that the Fed will push the economy into a recession sooner, again meaning the Fed won’t have to raise interest rates as high, but the long end of the curve seems to indicate the markets anticipate inflation might hang around longer.

The markets are projecting that interest rates will peak around 3.25% in 2023.

I don’t think that that’s going to be the case because I think before we get to 3.25% the economy will be in recession or will be close enough to a recession that the Fed ultimately backtracks from its rate hikes, and in fact will even return to quantitative easing. So, I don’t think we’ll ever get to that level. Remember, in 2018, the Fed couldn’t get above 2.5% before it had to backtrack and ultimately go back down to zero. And given how much more debt the economy has today than it had then, and how much more leverage there is now, it seems to me if we couldn’t take 2.5% in 2018 we can’t take 2.5% now, let alone 3.25. And so the Fed is not going to be able to get rates that high before something breaks.”

The US government ran another big budget deficit in March. It was almost quadruple expectations.

Back in the day of QE, which was just a few days ago, the Treasury could count on the Fed to buy most of that $192.7 billion. Well obviously, not only can’t the Treasury count on the Fed to buy any of that $192.7 billion, but the Fed is going to be selling billions of dollars worth of Treasuries off of its own balance sheet that has to be financed in addition to that $192.7 billion, which is why I don’t believe the Fed is going to be able to continue with quantitative tightening to the extent that it ever actually begins quantitative tightening, because the US Treasury just has too many bonds to sell and not enough buyers to step up.”

Peter noted that in 1981, the last time CPI was this high, interest rates peaked at 20%. Today, interest rates are at 0.25%. Then, we had real rates of over 6%. Today, real rates are deeply negative.

Is inflation going to peak when interest rates are at -8.25% when it took positive 6.5% to get inflation to peak in 1981? And of course, if we are measuring prices accurately, as I said earlier, we’ve got 17% inflation, which means we have -16.75 real interest rates — inflation is far more likely to accelerate than come down when you have a negative interest rate that high. Instead of being at the end of an inflationary period, we’re just beginning. … All of the people who are saying inflation has peaked they’re just saying that because they hope it’s peaked.

END

2.LAWRIE WILLIAM//,//Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, James RICKARDS/

Gold Vs An Openly Failing/Changing World

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

As central bankers play checkers on a global debt chessboard, we see below how policy hypocrisy, worsening monetary options, failed diplomacy, tanking bonds, rising rates, debt addiction, mismanaged sanctions, de-dollarization and a shift toward a disorderly re-set all spell immense pain for Main Street as well as Wall Street.

In short, the world is in flux, the mess is everywhere and gold is already flexing.

Faces of Hypocrisy

Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, a former money-printing dove who helped pour trillions of liquidity into the biggest risk asset bubble and wealth transfer in US history, is suddenly realizing that perhaps she and the FOMC may have gone too far as their open stock market inflation now morphs into just plain everywhere-inflation (and an 8+% CPI).

She is now puffing a Hawkish chest and citing the good ol’ days of Paul Volcker rate-hiking as the kind of tough restraint needed in 2022.

But such a pivot is the equivalent of the Titanic’s captain ordering more lifeboats after the ship has already sunk.

In short, if hypocrisy had a face, and if market comedy a punch-line, surely Brainard (along-side Kashkari, Powell, Yellen, Goldman Sachs and Bridgewater) would qualify for the top-10 list.

The “Greatest Threat to the Economy”? Inflation or the Fed Itself?

In a recent speech, Brainard reminded the audience of Volcker’s warning that runaway inflation “would be the greatest threat to the economy…and ultimately employment.”

Fair enough.

The irony, however, lies in the fact that the Fed (after years of expanding the broad money supply and mouse-click-creating trillions of dollars to buy otherwise unwanted US IOUs) is the very author of this inflation and, by extension, is itself, “the greatest threat to the economy.”

Today, the inflationary hens hatched directly from years of DC’s own spend-and-print policies are now coming home to roost.

As 1) defense and entitlement spending reaches all-time highs of 120% of record-high tax receipts and 2) the Fed balance sheet climbs >10X from a pre-08 number of $800B to a 2022 level of $9T, Fed-driven inflation has emerged not as a surprising or mysterious aberration but as an obvious, predictable and direct consequence of the Fed itself.

In short, former doves like Brainard citing hawks like Volcker to solve their banking policies is akin to Lance Armstrong citing Mother Theresa to defend his biking policies.

Brainless Bravado Rather than Honest Transparency

But in a never-ending effort to signal form over substance and spin over facts, Brainard somehow thinks that the US, with 90T in combined household, corporate and public debt, needs to get “Volcker-tough” on combatting the very inflation she helped create.

But we aren’t in the 1970’s anymore. Things, and debt levels, have changed.

The obvious problem with Brainard’s brainless bravado is that the Federal debt when Volcker raised rates to 20% in 1980 was $908 B; today that national debt figure is over $30 T.

Folks, when saddled by such unprecedented and unpayable debt levels, do you think Uncle Sam can afford to raise rates (i.e., the cost of that debt) without eventually mouse-clicking more debased dollars out of thin air to then pay for it?

Well, the answer we’ll give you is far blunter and more accurate than Brainard’s.

And it boils to this: Nope. It can’t be done—not without ushering a financial recession and market implosion or debasing the dollar with trillions of more fake liquidity.

Period. Full stop.

But if accuracy, candor and intelligent accountability is something you are hoping to find from so-called “experts” like Brainard, we’d remind you again to look elsewhere.

As for Brainard’s expertise (and fork-tongued inaccuracies), it’s worth reminding that: 1) in 2020 she supported inflation “running hot;” 2) in early 2021, she said the Fed’s inflation expectations “were extremely well-anchored,” and then, 3) at the end of that same year, said “I expect inflation to decelerate.”

Wrong every time.

Yet just last week, in 2022, Brainard finally confessed that “inflation is too high”?

Again, so much for trusting the “experts.”

Candor vs. Fantasy

As for us, we warned of the coming and persistent (rather than “transitory”) inflation long before the Fed-Heads would even discuss the inflation reality.

In those same years, we also consistently declared that a cornered Fed can not raise rates and cut money printing to become net sellers (as opposed to former top buyers) of UST without causing formerly – “accommodated’ bonds to tank and hence yields (and thus interest rates) to spike.

And precisely as forecasted, that’s what’s taking place now as rising rates, like rising shark fins, slowly approach the sinking ship that is the bankrupt US economy.

Pivots, Confusion and Insanity

The Fed has pivoted from being the largest buyer of Treasuries to a seller of Treasuries (i.e., Uncle Sam’s IOUs) at the very same time that Uncle Sam is issuing record amounts of those very same IOUs (i.e., borrowing like mad) during the worst inflationary period seen in 40 years.

You literally can’t make this kind of insanity up: One part of DC is borrowing at record levels while across the Street, the Fed is tightening the cash spigot.

Such open confusion, bi-polar policy swings, and exhaustion of any viable/remaining alternatives is going to end very badly for markets and the economy as yields spike and hence the USD, on a relative rather than inherent basis, gets stronger.

By the way, a stronger USD just makes US goods less competitive overseas and worsens US trade deficits—thereby adding more insult to an already injured US GDP.

In short, this perfect and Fed-made disaster is taking place in real time while double-speakers like Brainard stand with a chest puffed yet a back against a wall of their own making.

Given the fatal debt timebombs which the Fed alone unleashed since the Greenspan era, it has cornered itself into a prisoner’s dilemma of either: A) runaway inflation if they don’t raise rates or B) a market implosion if they do.

Sadly, we think the world is about to see both.

The Fed’s Real Mandate Makes Them Easy to Predict

As we have also transparently warned, the Fed’s real mandate is the markets not inflation or the man on the street.

The Fed is already fattening its Standard Repo Facility (SRF) in order to bail out the unloved Treasury market whenever the emergency bell rings in the bond pits.

In short, and despite talking hawkish, the SRF is open proof that the Fed is fully dovish when it comes to cooing over Mr. Market.

In plain-speak, when push comes to shove, the FOMC favors Wall Street over Main Steet—always has, always will.

Why?

The Market is the Thing

The Fed thinks a rising stock market will stimulate consumer spending, which is 70% of its GDP score as well as the core driver of Uncle Sam’s much needed tax receipts.

After all, Net Capital Gains and IRA Distributions are the 200% wind beneath the wings of consumer spending’s annual growth.

Stated even more simply (and mathematically), when markets tank, consumer spending tanks, and when consumer spending tanks, so too does Uncle Sam’s GDP as well as income from US tax receipts.

Given that the US has off-shored its productivity to places like China, the fully bloated and grotesquely distorted stock market is about the only bragging right Uncle Sam has left.

Hence, the Fed’s shadow mandate is to save that market, even at the expense of inflationary suffering on Main Street.

But as we’ve also consistently warned, the Fed’s track record for going too far is long and distinguished, and despite all their twisted (and rigged) efforts, they always fail in preventing market implosions of their own making.

Thus, Wall Street and Main Street can and will suffer together, and the Fed, like our markets, truly are Rigged to Fail.

For now, the Fed is trying to prop the market in secret while simultaneously claiming to fight inflation in public.

This behavior of inflating away debt in practice while publicly claiming to “combat” it is just another classic Fed ruse.

More, rather than less, inflation is ahead—which is why gold (and miners) will rise despite a relatively stronger USD.

Rising Dollar, Rising Gold

But shouldn’t a stronger USD bode poorly for gold?

That is, shouldn’t rapidly rising real yields be bad for gold, which, as we’ve argued for years, favors negative real real yields?

Not necessarily, and not in this totally distorted new-abnormal.

When the dollar is so fully debased, distrusted and set for a fall, and when rising yields bankrupt Uncle Sam, all the old rules change.

The traditional correlations and inverse relationships mean nothing anymore for the simple reason that nothing is normal anymore—thanks to years of central bank folly, political (spending) decadence, record-breaking debt expansion and a global addiction to printed currencies.

More Centralized Controls Are Inevitable

And as for money printing, more is on the way because central banks in general, and the Fed in particular, have no choice but to eventually create more diluted dollars.

Long-term gold investors have always known this.

And the market now knows what double-speakers like Yellen, Powell, Brainard and others won’t confess, namely: That as soon as the economy and markets begin to tank in this raising yield/rate environment, the Fed (and other central banks) will be forced to print (i.e., debase) more inflationary money and impose Yield Curve Controls (YCC) to stem the financial bleeding that always follows a rate hike.

In short, and as forewarned long ago, get ready for far more, rather than less, centralized controls over your money, economy, market and lives.

Such inevitable bond market disasters, yield spikes and subsequent money printing and YCC is why gold is rising and gold miners like Newmont are seeing all-time highs despite a rising USD.

A World in Flux

Meanwhile, as Western central bankers try to manage the optics of their increasingly discredited and disastrous policies (i.e., blaming everything on a politicized pandemic and an avoidable war), the world is rapidly moving in a new direction.

This direction is sailing away from the world reserve currency in general and western financial controls in particular, all of which we’ve warned would happen as the West shot itself in the foot with sanctions otherwise aimed at Russia’s chest.

Poking the Bear

As warned, Putin is moving closer toward the world he and China have otherwise been telegraphing for years—one in which the USD is no longer the only core player.

Squeezed by SWIFT, SDR and FX Reserve sanctions, Russia is now demanding payments for its resources in RUB rather USD from a growing list of states “unfriendly” to Russia.

In short, we poked a bear and now it’s biting us in the tail…

Unlike the post-Nixon West, Putin is also flirting with what wiser economists have hoped other nations would do, namely partially link its currency to gold rather than thin air.

Russia’s central bank has been buying gold at 5000 RUB per gram.

Folks, this flirtation with a gold-currency cover represents a massive shift in history in general and global markets in particular. DO NOT underestimate its implications.

As nations like Russia, China and India slowly move toward and consider a partial-cover of their currencies in gold, the gold price will rise in ways that not even the BIS or its minions in that thoroughly corrupted COMEX market can manipulate downwards.

The West Is Trapped

It seems the West, by failing to find a diplomatic solution in the Ukraine, has fallen straight into a Putin trap, which was so openly foreseeable.

I mean honestly, did the West really think Putin would simply collapse under sanctions he was already prepared to weather and counter-punch?

Unless the US can convince the EU to fully end its reliance on Russian energy (good luck with that), Putin, the chess player we’ve warned of, will have the checker-players in DC and Brussels bouncing off the walls.

In the end, the West has no options going forward (full ban of Russian purchases [?], capital controls with Chinese/Indian consent [?] or admit defeat and end Russian sanctions [?]) that won’t financially cripple western citizens from Austria to Atlanta.

As we’ve argued recently, the sanction genie can’t be put back into the bottle, and the world is now slowly marching toward a commodity-backed rather than “faith” backed currency system, which is running out of faith which each passing day.

Got gold?

You should.

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

A must read: James Turk believes that we will have a default in silver similar to what we witnessed in nickel

James Turk/GoldMoney/GATA

GoldMoney’s Turk discusses possible futures market default in silver

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2022-04-13 21:25Section: Daily Dispatches

9:12p ET Wednesday, April 13, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Last week the German edition of The Epoch Times interviewed GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk about developments in the currency and futures markets, starting with the London Metals Exchange’s default on its nickel contract and its rescuing the shorts and its expropriation of the longs.

Turk discusses whether a similar default is possible in silver, another market with a huge naked short position.

The German version of the interview is posted at The Epoch Times’ German edition here:

https://www.epochtimes.de/wirtschaft/finanz/boersengefluester-zu-gold-und-geld-inmitten-der-krise-das-koennte-die-zukunft-bringen-a3783575.html

An English translation is posted at Turk’s internet site, the Free Gold Money Report, here:

https://www.fgmr.com/james-turk-interviewed-by-the-epoch-times/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

4.OTHER GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

5.OTHER COMMODITIES

LITHIUM

end

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING TODAY

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.3725

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.3833

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 153.71 PTS OR 0.67%

2. Nikkei closed UP 328.51PTS OR 1.22%

3. Europe stocks ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 99.62/Euro FALLS TO 1.0886

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.242/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 125.22/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 102.93 and Brent: 107.28

3f Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN -SHORE CLOSED UP// OFF- SHORE DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.0.800%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 2.40% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 1.72%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 1.60: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 2.87

3k Gold at $1979.50 silver at: 25.62 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3l USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 1 /3 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 81.21

3m oil into the 102 dollar handle for WTI and 107 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 125.22 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9363– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0188 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.673 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.793 DOWN 0BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.62

Futures Flat Ahead Of ECB And Barrage Of Bank Earnings With $2.1 Trillion In Options Expiring

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 07:25 AM

US index were flat on Thursday, reversing earlier gains sparked by hopes of imminent easing in China, as investors turned their attention to the ECB which is set to maintain its speedier withdrawal of stimulus, data on retail sales and unemployment claims, and a barrage of earnings from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, and all of this happening as $2.1 trillion in options are set to expire (since tomorrow is a holiday).

At 7;00am ET, S&P futures were unchanged at 4440, Nasdaq futures were down 0.1% and Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.2%. Asian stocks rose after China again indicated looser monetary policy is on the way. Treasuries extended gains as investors dialed back aggressive bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. The yen bounced from a two-decade low against the dollar. The greenback slipped after snapping its longest winning streak since 2020. Oil fell. Twitter shares soared after Elon Musk offered to buy the whole company for $54.20.

Delta Air Lines gained 0.9% in premarket trading, extending this week’s rally after it had its price projection raised at JPMorgan and Barclays. However the biggest mover in the premarket was Twitter which soared as much as 18%, and was last trading at $51 following a hostile offer by Elon Musk; Tesla shares fell.

While elevated and sticky inflation “remains a key risk for investors,” there are signs that price growth will ease in the rest of the year, according to Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “In our base case, this should allow central banks to slow the pace of monetary tightening and tone down hawkish rhetoric,” he said. “That in turn should lower the threat of an economic hard landing.”

China is expected to cut a key policy interest rate for the second time this year on Friday and reduce the reserve requirement ratio soon. South Korea raised its key interest rate and Singapore further tightened policy, spurring advances in their currencies.

“We have actually turned cautiously optimistic on the Chinese equity market in April already,” Stefanie Holtze-Jen, Asia-Pacific chief investment officer at Deutsche Bank AG in Singapore, said on Bloomberg Television. “We perceived the communication from the government as the line in the sand.”

“We’re still being cautious” about equities, Michael Vogelzang, chief investment officer at CAPTRUST, said on Bloomberg Television. “We think there’s still a lot more that can go wrong than probably can go right.”

The latest developments over the war in Ukraine included a European Union warning for member states that President Vladimir Putin’s demand that “unfriendly countries” effectively pay for Russian gas in rubles would violate sanctions. The U.S. will expand the scope of weapons it’s providing to Ukraine in a new $800 million package of military assistance.

In Europe, gains for travel and consumer companies outweighed declines in the telecommunications and energy industries, leading the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up 0.1% and Stoxx 50 up 0.3%. CAC 40 outperforms, adding 0.4%, FTSE 100 lags, dropping 0.2%. Atlantia jumped 4.9% in Milan after the Benetton family and Blackstone offered to buy out the Italian highway operator for 23 euros per share. Ericsson dropped 5.6% in Stockholm after its earnings missed estimates. Here are some of Europe’s most notable movers:

Wizz Air shares jump as much as 8.9% after it said it sees its 4Q operating result ahead of guidance provided at 3Q. Concorde says the low-cost carrier’s expectation to fly 30%-40% more compared with 2019 capacity in the next two quarters is “encouraging.”
Holcim shares rise as much as 4.3%, most since March 29, following a Bloomberg report that the group is considering the sale of assets in India.
Atlantia shares rise as much as 5.8% after Italy’s Benetton family and Blackstone have made a EU19b bid to buy out the infrastructure group, it follows Bloomberg News last week’s report that the firm was circled by potential suitors.
Hermes shares advance as much as 4.6% after publishing 1Q sales that one analyst described as “spectacular.” Peers are also up with Richemont rose as much as +3%
Ericsson shares fall as much as 9.2% after reporting adjusted operating profit that undershot average analyst estimates by 25%. While the first-quarter revenue came ahead of expectations, a “clear miss” on profits together with multiple new headwinds to margins may keep investors on the sidelines, according to Barclays.
VW shares decline as much as 2.3% after the car-maker reported preliminary figures that Jefferies says are “overall negative.”
UPM shares decline as much as 5.1% on Friday after the Finnish company said it has not been able to come to new collective labor agreements with the Paperworkers’ Union.
Ashmore shares sink as much as 9.2%, the most since April 2020, after the emerging markets-focused asset manager reported 3Q net outflows of $3.7b, which analysts say were worse than consensus expectations.

European bonds fell and the euro advanced as attention turns to the ECB, which is set to maintain its speedier withdrawal of stimulus.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks headed for a two-day gain amid growing expectations that China’s central bank will ease policy to support growth in the region’s biggest economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.8% as all sectors rose, with shares in mainland China leading the regionon hopes that the People’s Bank of China will cut its key policy rate soon. A 50-basis point, broad-based reduction in the reserve requirement ratio could also be confirmed as early as Friday, injecting 1.2 trillion yuan ($188 billion) of liquidity into the economy, Citigroup said. While an RRR cut “will help in terms of stabilizing expectations, it could be just an expedient measure as the economy urgently calls for more easing,” wrote Huatai Securities analysts including Yi Huan in a note. Asia’s cyclical and defensive shares climbed with SoftBank Group hauling up the gauge, as Mizuho Securities said the technology giant may sell some of its assets to improve its finances.

Japan’s main gauges were also among the top performers in Asia, rising for a second day, driven by advances in technology shares. Electronics makers were the biggest boost to the Topix, which gained 1%. Fast Retailing and Tokyo Electron were the largest contributors to a 1.2% rise in the Nikkei 225. The Kospi index ended the day little changed after the Bank of Korea raised its seven-day repurchase rate by a quarter percentage point.

China’s growth outlook has been a key pressure point for Asian shares as the country maintains its Covid Zero strategy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down about 10% in 2022, extending last year’s underperformance versus the S&P 500. “China’s dynamic zero-Covid policy could ravage the Chinese economy if lockdowns continue,” Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, wrote in a note. “Beyond the reduced demand for imports from China, an even more immediate effect is inflation given the world’s dependence on China’s production of intermediate goods.”

In rates, yields are lower by as much as 2bp in 3- to 5-year sector, steepening 5s30s spread by about that much with long-end yields little changed; 10-year, lower by ~1bp at around 2.69%, outperforms bunds and gilts in the sector by 5bp-6bp. Treasuries were slightly richer across front-end and belly of the curve, steepening most curve spreads and outperforming European core rates ahead of ECB policy decision at 7:45am ET and President Christine Lagarde’s press conference. Focal points of U.S. session include retail sales data and three Fed speakers. Sifma has recommended a 2pm close ahead of Friday’s U.S. market holiday. German curve bear-steepens with yields up 2.5-3bps across the back end. Peripheral spreads widen to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund widening 2.9bps to 242.3bps. Cash USTs bull-steepen with the curve seeing ~2bps of riching from the 5y point out. U.K. curve bear-steepens with 30y yields rising over 3bps.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for a second day of losses, falling 0.1%. and the dollar fell against most of its Group-of 10 peers. CHF and AUD are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, SEK and NZD outperform. The euro rose above $1.09 while yields on Bunds and Italian bonds advanced as money markets increased ECB rate hike bets ahead of the monetary policy decision. Sweden’s krona strengthened against all of its G-10 peers and the nation’s sovereign bonds slumped, led by the front-end of the curve. Markets rushed to price in faster Riksbank tightening after its target measure, CPIF, rose to 6.1% on an annual basis in March. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected underlying prices to rise by 5.6%. The Australian dollar declined versus its New Zealand counterpart as the economy added fewer jobs than expected last month. Yen snapped a nine-day losing streak as U.S. yields continued to fall and players prepared for the long Easter weekend. Japanese government bonds followed Treasuries higher. BOJ Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe said that it’s desirable for foreign exchange rates to reflect economic fundamentals and move in a stable manner.

In commodities, crude futures decline. WTI trades within Wednesday’s range, falling 0.7% to trade around $103. Brent falls 0.7% to $108. Most base metals trade in the red; LME zinc falls 1.1%, underperforming peers. LME aluminum outperforms, adding 1.1%. Gold weakens to around $1,972.

The commodity-fueled jump in costs exacerbated by Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to ripple across the global economy and color market sentiment. JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said inflation and the conflict were creating “significant” challenges. The firm was among the first of the big U.S. banks to report earnings.

Looking to the day ahead, the main highlight will be the ECB’s latest policy decision. We’ll also hear from the Fed’s Williams, Mester and Harker. Data releases include US retail sales for March, the weekly initial jobless claims, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for April. Lastly, earnings releases are again financials heavy, with Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and UnitedHealth Group showcasing.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 4,437.75
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 457.19
MXAP up 0.6% to 175.12
MXAPJ up 0.4% to 580.08
Nikkei up 1.2% to 27,172.00
Topix up 1.0% to 1,908.05
Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 21,518.08
Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 3,225.64
Sensex down 0.4% to 58,338.93
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,523.43
Kospi little changed at 2,716.71
German 10Y yield little changed at 0.78%
Euro up 0.2% to $1.0906
Brent Futures down 0.7% to $108.07/bbl
Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,975.23
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.17% to 99.71

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

Jumbo-sized interest rate hikes from Canada to New Zealand are boosting market confidence that central banks are on track to tame inflation, putting bonds back in investors’ focus
Russian authorities are considering a step-by-step approach to rolling back the harsh capital controls imposed to stabilize markets after the invasion of Ukraine. Discussions this week focused on options that included extending the deadline for exporters to carry out mandatory conversions of their overseas earnings into rubles and lowering below 80% the share of foreign proceeds that companies are obliged to sell in the market, according to people informed on the matter
Russia threatened to deploy nuclear weapons in and around the Baltic Sea region if Finland and Sweden join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as tensions fueled by Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine spread
Singapore’s central bank further tightened monetary settings and raised its inflation forecast, sending the currency higher as it seeks to fight cost pressures that threaten the recovery from the pandemic
Chinese President Xi Jinping says his government will stick to its zero-tolerance approach to Covid even as public anger simmers in Shanghai and economic costs mount
Copper and aluminum rose on signs China will loosen monetary policy to revive its virus-wracked economy, while zinc dipped but remained near the highest close since 2006 amid a global supply crunch

A More detailed breakdown of global news from Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were mostly positive after the gains on Wall St where risk appetite was supported by lower yields, although some bourses lagged on policy tightening. ASX 200 traded higher but with gains capped by cautiousness in the top-weighted financials sector after Bank of Queensland’s shares failed to benefit post-earnings. Nikkei 225 outperformed and reclaimed the 27,000 level with Japan’s ruling coalition parties unveiling their draft relief proposals. Fast Retailing (9983 JT) 6-month (JPY): Net Profit 146.84bln, +38.7%; Operating Profit 189.3bln, +12.7%; Pretax Profit 212.6bln, +24%; Sees FY net income at 190bln (prev. guidance 175bln). KOSPI and Straits Times Index lagged after the BoK unexpectedly hiked rates by 25bps points and the MAS tightened FX-based policy, respectively. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat with speculation rife that the PBoC will lower rates tomorrow via an MLF rate cut, while Citi also sees the possibility for a RRR cut on Friday to free up around CNY 1.2tln cash.

Top Asian News

Chinese Stocks Advance as Key Rate Cut Seen as Soon as Friday
TSMC Raises Sales Outlook Despite Fears Around Global Demand
Sri Lanka Seeking Up to $4 Billion as IMF Talks Set to Start
Uniqlo Owner Gets Serious About Conquering North American Market

European bourses are firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, but off best levels as sentiment was hit on commentary from Russia’s Medvedev and as we await key bank earnings. Sectors in Europe are contained and are not exhibiting any pronounced theme thus far. US futures remain within narrow parameters at this point in time awaiting updates from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley before Retail Sales rounds off the week’s key data; NQ +0.1%. Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk, on April 13th, offered to purchase all of the outstanding Twitter (TWTR) shares for USD 54.20/shr (vs prior close of USD 45.85); said it was his final offer. TWTR +13% in the pre-market. TSMC (2330 TW) Q1 (TWD): Revenue 491bln (prev. 362bln), Net Profit 202.7bln (exp. 184.7bln), Gross Margin 55.6%. Expects chip demand to continue in the long term, believes capacity will remain tight this year and expects another strong year. Working to address supply chain challenges with tool suppliers.

Top European News

ArcelorMittal Buys $1 Billion Voestalpine Plant in Texas
VW Sees Profit Surge on $3.8 Billion Hedging Boost
Valneva’s Covid Vaccine Gets U.K. Clearance After Rocky Ride
Macron’s Lead Grows in French Election Polling Average

FX:

DXY almost full point down from midweek y-t-d peak as US Treasury yields continue to recede ahead of packed pre-Easter agenda index hovering above 95.500 vs 100.520 high.
Kiwi rebounds after RBNZ letdown with tailwinds from AUD/NZD cross in wake of weaker than forecast Aussie jobs data, NZD/USD back on 0.6800 handle, AUD/USD straddling 0.7450.
Euro takes advantage of Greenback retreat awaiting words of wisdom from ECB President Lagarde following policy announcement that is not expected to reveal changes; EUR/USD above 1.0900 vs close shave with 2022 low (1.0806) yesterday.
Swedish Crown aloft as more consensus and Riksbank target topping inflation prints prompt earlier rate hike calls, EUR/SEK pivots 10.3000.
Korean Won and Singapore Dollar boosted by shock BoK hike and MAS tightening, but Chinese Yuan backs off amidst growing speculation about PBoC easing possibly as soon as tomorrow.

Fixed income:

Eurozone bonds extend retreat from recovery peaks and underperformance ahead of the ECB.
Bunds nearer 155.00 after rebound to just shy of 156.00, Gilts sub-119.00 vs 119.65 Liffe high and 10 year T-note closer to 120-19+ overnight bottom than 121-05+ top.
US Treasuries down in sympathy with Gilts and curve a tad steeper after so-so long bond auction.
Debt also defensive pre-long Easter weekend and busy line up of US data, including IJC and retail sales.

Commodities:

WTI and Brent are pressured and in relatively proximity to the session’s troughs of USD 102.50/bbl and USD 107.01/bbl.
Newsflow remains focused on Ukraine-Russia, particularly Medvedev’s commentary, and the COVID situation in China as other cities are on edge re. Shanghai.
Libyan National Unity Government adopted a plan to develop the oil sector to raise output to 1.4mln bpd, according to Reuters.
Chinese refiners are seen cutting April’s crude throughput by 900k BPD, around 6% of the 2021 average, via Reuters citing sources/analysts; expected to export 2mln/T of refined fuel in April, counter to earlier China plan to halt exports.
Spot gold/silver are pressured and have lost the brief upside derived from earlier geopolitical developments, yellow metal at lows of USD 1967/oz.

US Event Calendar

08:30: April Initial Jobless Claims, est. 170,000, prior 166,000
- Continuing Claims, est. 1.5m, prior 1.52m
08:30: March Import Price Index YoY, est. 11.9%, prior 10.9%; MoM, est. 2.3%, prior 1.4%
- March Export Price Index YoY, est. 16.2%, prior 16.6%; MoM, est. 2.2%, prior 3.0%
08:30: March Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.3%
- March Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 0.2%
- March Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.1%, prior -1.2%
10:00: Feb. Business Inventories, est. 1.3%, prior 1.1%
10:00: April U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 59.0, prior 59.4;
- Current Conditions, est. 67.0, prior 67.2
- Expectations, est. 53.6, prior 54.3
- 1 Yr Inflation, est. 5.5%, prior 5.4%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 3.0%

DB concludes the overnight wrap

The EMR will be joining much of the market on holiday and will be back on Tuesday. A happy, restful long weekend to our loyal readers, and cheers to whatever it is you may be celebrating.

Ahead of the holiday, the yield curve rose on the third day straight, with 2s10s having risen +42.5bps since its nadir at the start of the month. Global sovereign yields modestly fell, while US equities outperformed their European counterparts. The ECB meets today, where our economists are not expecting a change in tune.

Starting with Ukraine, the US announced another round of aid, which will include heavy weaponry. Meanwhile, Finland has started the process to obtain NATO membership, and Swedish media report Sweden is considering the same. This, following President Biden labelling Russia’s excursions into Ukraine a genocide, the lack of negotiation progress, and the collective bracing for a renewed assault in the east, has cast a gloomy pall over the conflict. The International Energy Agency elsewhere warned that the disruption to Russian oil supply has yet to bind, with upwards of 3m bbls/day coming offline starting in May. The combined effect was to send Brent crude oil futures higher, which gained +4.14% yesterday to $108.78bbl, their highest level in two weeks following a +10.5% gain over the last two days.

Sovereign yields had a subdued day by the standards of recent volatility, with yields falling across most jurisdictions and tenors. 10yr Treasuries were down -2.3bps, outpaced by the -5.7bp decline in 2yr yields that led to a further steepening of the curve. Most of the declines came in the New York morning, when reports of large block futures trades were relentlessly hitting the tapes.

In Europe, 10yr bund, OAT, and BTP yields were -2.4bps, -3.5bps, and -3.4bps lower ahead of today’s ECB meeting, respectively. Both ECB meetings so far this year have surprised on the hawkish side of expectations, which comes as inflation has continued to accelerate to the fastest since the single currency’s formation, at +7.5% in March. Today, however, our economists preview (link here) that they’re not expecting much change to the ECB’s message. Instead, they believe with the new staff forecasts in June, the ECB will announce that APP purchases will end in July, ahead of liftoff in September.

Equities were mixed in Europe, with the DAX falling -0.34%, while the STOXX 600 and CAC managed marginal gains of +0.03% and +0.07%, respectively. Farther from the conflict, the S&P 500 outperformed, climbing +1.12%, with mega-cap shares leading the way on falling discount rates, as the FANG+ climbed +2.06%. The S&P outperformance came amidst mixed results from some bellwether US financials, with JPM missing analyst earnings expectations while Blackrock sales came below expectations. In their release, JPM noted that they were increasing reserves to account for increased recession probabilities and to account for exposures to the war, two themes likely to suffuse earnings releases this season.

In other central bank news, the Bank of Canada rose rates by +50bps to 1.00%, as was expected, and announced that their bond purchases would stop on April 25, a decision that contained some intrigue. The 50bp hike was the largest since 2000; Canada is no outlier in fighting multi-decade high inflation. The BoC said interest rates would need to rise further, as there was growing risk of higher inflation expectations becoming entrenched, a primal fear for any central banker. How much further? President Macklem suggested rates may need to surpass neutral if inflation doesn’t moderate, and the BoC happened to revise their neutral rate 25bps higher to a range between 2% and 3%. They also revised higher their inflation and GDP forecasts for 2022, revising down their 2023 growth forecast to 3.2%, which is nevertheless still above trend growth.

US producer prices grew at a much faster rate than analysts were expecting, with final demand growing +11.2% year-on-year, versus expectations of +10.6%, while the core measure grew at +9.2%. Interesting enough, the elements of PPI that feed into core PCE were among those that printed to the soft side. Combined with the CPI data from the day before, our economists are expecting core PCE in March to grow at +0.25%

Asian equity markets are following US stocks higher this morning, with most indices in the green, augmented by China signalling a potential impending RRR cut. US equity futures are pointing to a steady start today, with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.07%) and Nasdaq 100 (+0.16%) both a smidge higher. Brent crude futures are -0.61% down to $108.12/bbl. 10yr Treasury yields have declined -2.7bps to 2.67%, with the 2yr yields edging -2.9bps lower to 2.32%.

The Bank of Korea got in on the global tightening overnight, lifting its base rate by +25bps to 1.5%, its highest since August 2019 and making it the fourth rate increase since August 2021. The increase came even without the formal appointment of a new governor Rhee Chang-yong, who is expected to begin his four-year term from April 19.

With 10 days left until the French Presidential election, polls show a consistent lead for President Macron. His lead over Marine Le Pen expanded in 3 of the 4 polls released yesterday, yet still reflect a smaller expected margin of victory than his previous triumph. The spread of French 10yr yields over bunds narrowed to close beneath 50bps for the first time in over a week.

Aside from the US PPI data, the other main release yesterday were the UK inflation numbers, where the year-on-year measure for headline CPI rose to +7.0% (vs. +6.7% expected). That’s the 6th consecutive month that the reading has surpassed the consensus expectation, whilst core CPI also surprised to the upside at +5.7% (vs. +5.3% expected). In turn, investors moved to raise the probability of a 50bp hike in May from the Bank of England to 28%, the highest in a couple of weeks. Our UK economist also put out an update after the report (link here) move above 9% year-on-year in the April data next month.

To the day ahead now, the main highlight will be the ECB’s latest policy decision. We’ll also hear from the Fed’s Williams, Mester and Harker. Data releases include US retail sales for March, the weekly initial jobless claims, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for April. Lastly, earnings releases are again financials heavy, with Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and UnitedHealth Group showcasing.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING// WEDNESDAY NIGHT

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA

END

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/COVID/SHANGHAI LOCKDOWNS//LAST NIGHT

END

CHINA/COVID/LOCKDOWNS

end

CHINA/RUSSIA/TRADE

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

//ECB

No surprises today from the ECB

(zerohedge)

No Surprises From ECB Which Vows To Take “Whatever Action Is Needed To Fulfill Mandate”

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 08:01 AM

As expected, the ECB kept all of its rates unchanged, with the central bank noting that any adjustments to interest rates “will take place some time after the end of the Governing Council’s net purchases under the APP and will be gradual.” The ECB also said that “the path for the key ECB interest rates will continue to be determined by the Governing Council’s forward guidance and by its strategic commitment to stabilize inflation at 2% over the medium term” and that “the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels until it sees inflation reaching 2% well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon, and it judges that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at 2% over the medium term.”

On QE, the ECB said that “incoming data since its last meeting reinforce its expectation that net asset purchases under its asset purchase programme should be concluded in the third quarter” and added that “looking ahead, the ECB’s monetary policy will depend on the incoming data and the Governing Council’s evolving assessment of the outlook.” The ECB then fell back to a trite Mario Draghi cliche, saying that

“in the current conditions of high uncertainty, the Governing Council will maintain optionality, gradualism and flexibility in the conduct of monetary policy. The Governing Council will take whatever action is needed to fulfil the ECB’s mandate to pursue price stability and to contribute to safeguarding financial stability.”

There was some new language however, with the ECB adding that “the Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate, incorporating flexibility if warranted, to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target over the medium term. The pandemic has shown that, under stressed conditions, flexibility in the design and conduct of asset purchases has helped to counter the impaired transmission of monetary policy and made the Governing Council’s efforts to achieve its goal more effective. Within the Governing Council’s mandate, under stressed conditions, flexibility will remain an element of monetary policy whenever threats to monetary policy transmission jeopardise the attainment of price stability.”

Here are some more details from the ECB statement on…

Rates:

The Governing Council will assess the appropriate calibration of its two-tier system for reserve remuneration so that the negative interest rate policy does not limit banks’ intermediation capacity in an environment of ample excess liquidity.
the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels until it sees inflation reaching 2% well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon, and it judges that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at 2% over the medium term.

Asset Purchases:

Monthly net purchases under the APP will amount to €40 billion in April, €30 billion in May and €20 billion in June.
The Governing Council judged that the incoming data since its last meeting reinforce its expectation that net asset purchases under the APP should be concluded in the third quarter.
The calibration of net purchases for the third quarter will be data-dependent and reflect the Governing Council’s evolving assessment of the outlook.
“The Governing Council also intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates and, in any case, for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.”

Inflation and Price Stability:

The Governing Council will take whatever action is needed to fulfil the ECB’s mandate to pursue price stability and to contribute to safeguarding financial stability.

PEPP:

The Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the PEPP until at least the end of 2024.
The future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio will be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance.
In the event of renewed market fragmentation related to the pandemic, PEPP reinvestments can be adjusted flexibly across time, asset classes and jurisdictions at any time. This could include purchasing bonds issued by the Hellenic Republic over and above rollovers of redemptions in order to avoid an interruption of purchases in that jurisdiction, which could impair the transmission of monetary policy to the Greek economy while it is still recovering from the fallout from the pandemic.
Net purchases under the PEPP could also be resumed, if necessary, to counter negative shocks related to the pandemic.

TLTRO/Refi operations:

The Governing Council will continue to monitor bank funding conditions and ensure that the maturing of operations under the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) does not hamper the smooth transmission of its monetary policy.
The Governing Council will also regularly assess how targeted lending operations are contributing to its monetary policy stance. As announced, it expects the special conditions applicable under TLTRO III to end in June this year.
The Governing Council will also assess the appropriate calibration of its two-tier system for reserve remuneration so that the negative interest rate policy does not limit banks’ intermediation capacity in an environment of ample excess liquidity.

Here is a redline of the ECB statements:

In kneejerk response, the EURUSD tumbled about 40 pips although that appears to be mostly position squaring and flows as there were no actual surprises from the ECB.

END.

FRANCE/RUSSIA AND CHINA

LePen calling for closer ties between these nations once the war is over

She is probably correct

France’s Le Pen Urges Closer Ties Between NATO & Russia Once War Is Over

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 04:15 AM

French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen – who is now in a close second behind President Macron following Sunday’s first round vote and ahead of the next round April 24 presidential election, and who is often dubbed “far-right nationalist” in establishment media – said Wednesday that she plans to propose closer links between NATO and Russia once the Ukraine war concludes.

She said she would back a “a strategic rapprochement between NATO and Russia” which would come “as soon as the Russian-Ukrainian war is over and has been settled by a peace treaty.”

She also referenced increasing China-Russia relations as both countries find themselves under Washington pressure and the target of sanctions and attempts at ratcheting diplomatic isolation.

“It is in the interest of France and Europe, but also, I believe, of the United States, which has… no interest in seeing the emergence of a close Sino-Russian union,” she said at a press conference presentation of her key foreign policy positions in Paris.

And according to Reuters, “She also said that she does not want France to leave the European Union and added that she would respect the Paris agreement on climate change if she were elected president.”

Le Monde further quoted her as saying the following on the question of France’s role in NATO:

As for France’s place in NATO, “in the event of my election, I would like to dispel any misunderstanding” , she began. “I simply want to reconnect with the policy that was ours from 1966 to 2009, which in no way implied submission to Moscow.”

Without doubt, and despite her above clarification of simply wanting a return to France’s prior policy based on avoiding confrontation with superpower Russia at all costs, she will still be branded by opponents as a “Russia apologist”.

Macron himself has seized on this talking point, despite him being the only European leader to hold direct phone calls with Putin on an almost weekly basis throughout the war, in order to find room for de-escalation and diplomacy in Ukraine.

A recent Politico hit piece called out Le Pen as a supposed “Putin sympathizer” – as but one example of this kind of commentary among many… “A possible victory by Le Pen, a Putin sympathizer, could destabilize the Western coalition against Moscow, upending France’s role as a leading European power and potentially giving other NATO leaders cold feet about staying in the alliance, according to three senior administration officials not authorized to publicly discuss private conversations.”

And already, US officials are anonymously dropping hints of election ‘interference’ by Russia (of course such allegations will be triggered only in the event Le Pen pulls off a win): “Senior U.S. officials have warily watched across the Atlantic for any signs of possible Russian interference in the first round of the elections, which will take place Sunday. Polls suggest that Macron and Le Pen would likely then advance to a showdown on April 24 — and that the potential two-person race would be close,” Politico wrote ahead of last Sunday’s vote.

end

EUROPE/UKRAINE WAR

Ukraine war is set to cost Europe twice as much as covid

(Kern/OilPrice.com)

Ukraine War Set To Cost Europe Twice As Much As COVID In 2020

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 03:30 AM

By Michael Kern of OilPrice.com

Aside from the tragic human casualties and infrastructure devastation, Ukraine is facing a massive economic crisis that the World Bank estimates will shrink the country’s economy by 45.1% this year.

With Putin’s war already succeeding in shutting down half of Ukraine’s businesses, the World Bank’s new estimate is a serious blow when compared with the pre-war forecast of 3% growth.

In a recent report, Anna Bjerde, World Bank Vice President for the Europe and Central Asia region, said the magnitude of the contraction will depend on the duration and intensity of the war.

“The magnitude of the humanitarian crisis unleashed by the war is staggering. The Russian invasion is delivering a massive blow to Ukraine’s economy, and it has inflicted enormous damage to infrastructure,” she said.

A continuation of the war would cause even larger falls in GDP, with the bank predicting a downside 20% contraction in Russia’s GDP and a 75% contraction in Ukraine’s GDP.

Since the start of the invasion, roughly 3 million people have lost their jobs while the Ukraine government’s preliminary estimates suggest that the economy may have already lost approximately $565 billion.

With millions of Ukrainians fleeing the country or joining the fight against Russia, the workforce has shrunk dramatically, making it difficult to keep the wartime economy going.

More than 4 million people have fled Ukraine, mostly to Poland, with an additional 6.5 million displaced within the country.

The blockage of Black Sea shipping from Ukraine has cut off some 90% of the country’s grain exports and half of its total exports. Global food prices have risen as a result, with Ukraine being the world’s biggest exporter of sunflower oil, followed by Russia. All in all, Ukraine’s ports have already suffered a fall in traffic of more than 75%

The World Bank says Ukraine needs “massive financial support immediately”. The Bank has already sent some $1 billion to help the government provide critical services to citizens, and has promised a further $2 billion in the coming months.

At the same time, the World Bank says Russia has already plunged into a deep recession due to Western sanctions, projecting Russia’s economy would contract by 11.2% this year.

The US has banned all Russian oil and gas imports and the EU has proposed a plan to make Europe independent from Russian fossil fuels before 2030. However, the block still pays Russia nearly $884 million for energy daily. That alone amounts to nearly 40% of Russia’s income.

Experts agree that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have lasting and negative effects on the world economy and the rises in global energy and food prices and inflation will hit millions of people.

The war is set to inflict twice the amount of economic damage across Europe and Central Asia than the pandemic did in 2020.

In addition to Russia and Ukraine, neighboring Belarus, the Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova and Tajikistan are projected to fall into recession this year. The growth projections have been downgraded in all economies due to spillovers from the war.

end

Stupid!!

(zerohedge)

EU Countries Paying Roubles For Gas Would Violate Sanctions: European Commission Memo

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 11:49 AM

An internal European Commission note, the contents of which has come to light and is being reported for the first time on Thursday, has spelled out that European buyers agreeing to pay for Russian gas in roubles would violate sanctions against Moscow.

“This mechanism would lead to a breach of the existing EU restrictive measures adopted in respect of Russia, its government, the Central Bank of Russia, and their proxies,” Reuters reports of decrees in the internal note after reviewing its contents.

It threatens to further escalate the energy standoff which has ensued after Vladimir Putin demanded payment for Russian gas in roubles by “unfriendly countries” which have leveled sanctions on Russia in the wake of the Feb.24 Ukraine invasion – the exemptions given to Austria and Hungary of late notwithstanding.

According to more from the internal memo:

The EU buyer would still pay Gazprombank in the contract currency – euros or dollars – but the purchase would only be complete once Gazprombank exchanges the currency into roubles in a deal with the Russian central bank, and deposits the roubles in the second account, the note said.

The memo underscores, “The effect … is that a payment is completed not in the currency established under the contract at the moment it is deposited in the accounts … but rather only at an unknown and undefined moment once the foreign currency … is converted into roubles and credited to the second special account.”

The European Commission wrote further, “The Russian State, through its central bank, has total control over the foreign currency… which it can manipulate entirely to its own benefit.”

Essentially the commission ruling on the matter would make Putin’s rouble stipulation completely off limits for individual European countries and entities, especially as the process would involve Russia overseeing the whole payment process.

Meanwhile, on Thursday Putin addressed the crisis in fresh statements. “Attempts by Western countries to squeeze out Russian suppliers and replace our energy resources with alternative supplies will inevitably affect the entire world economy. The consequences of such a step can become very painful, and first of all, for the initiators of such a policy themselves. What is surprising here is that our so-called partners from unfriendly countries admit that they cannot do without Russian energy resources, including natural gas, for example.”

He talked about reorienting “our exports to the fast-growing markets of the south and east…” and warned Europe at the same time:

“A reasonable alternative for Europe simply doesn’t exist. Yes, it’s possible, but right now, it doesn’t exist. Everyone understands this; there are simply no free volumes on the global market right now, and supplies from other countries — primarily from the United States, which can be sent to Europe — will cost consumers many times more and will affect the standard of living of people and the competitiveness of the European economy,” Putin said.

He also addressed instances of payment failures and delays…

“Banks from unfriendly countries delay the transfer of payments. I will remind you, the task has already been set to transfer payments for energy resources in national currency, to gradually move away from the dollar and the euro. In general, we intend to radically increase the share of settlements in national currencies in the foreign trade system,” Putin said.

Thus, given the contents in this latest European Commission note, it looks as if there’s no off-ramp and the energy standoff will continue. At the same time Putin is touting that Russia still has ‘friends’ and thus greater options in the east and south, without doubt including India and China.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE//THE WEST

A must read…

(Victor Davis Hanson)

Can Ukraine Ever Win?

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,

Even a truncated Russian Federation has four times the pre-war population of Ukraine. It enjoys well over 10 times the Ukrainian gross domestic product. Russia covers almost 30 times Ukraine’s area.

And how does Ukraine expel Russian troops from its borders when its Western allies must put particular restrictions on their life-giving military and financial aid?

The interests of Europe and the United States are not quite the same as those of a beleaguered Ukraine. NATO also wants Russian President Vladimir Putin humiliated, but only if the war can be confined within the borders of Ukraine.

The West seeks a resounding reaffirmation for the supposed “rules-based international order” that prevents aggressive invasions across national borders – but not at the price of a nuclear exchange.

So to accomplish those grand agendas, the West restricts some of its generous supplies to Ukraine.

It sends plenty of lethal weapons – as long as some of them will not provoke a losing Russia into doing something stupid, like resorting to tactical nuclear weapons to save face.

There are other complications.

Time is fickle. In theory, it should favor a resilient Ukraine.

The longer the war goes on, the more sanctions will hurt the Russian economy and insidiously undermine Russian public support for the war.

On the other hand, the longer the war continues, the greater the Russian losses, and the fewer acceptable off-ramps for Putin, all the more likely he will grow desperate and escalate to Gotterdammerung levels.

Admittedly, Putin is no longer fighting to win over Ukraine and force it back intact into the Russian federation. He is no longer wary of eradicating infrastructure that he once felt would once again become valuable Russian assets.

Instead, Russia is going full Carthaginian peace in Eastern Ukraine – leveling cities, murdering civilians, and destroying an entire modern society for generations.

There is as yet still no deterrent force that can stop Putin’s bombs and missiles and disrupt his nihilist strategy. Again, Putin feels liberated by caring nothing about international opinion, and less than nothing about Western outrage over reported Russian war crimes.

He instead believes the stick, of an unpredictable Russia with 7,000 nuclear weapons, and its carrot, of becoming the world’s largest daily producer of oil, can cut a lot of lofty talk about humanity.

So the war has become more complex precisely because Putin failed in his initial shock-and-awe effort to decapitate the Ukrainian government, storm the cities, and install a puppet government.

Putin’s strategy is now paradoxically much simpler – and harder to stop. He will claim victory by institutionalizing Vichy-like Russian states in the Donbass region and Crimea.

In the meantime his air attacks will render Eastern Ukraine an inert wasteland that will require decades to rebuild.

Even after an armistice, Putin can periodically threaten to expand his devastation to Western Ukraine, should he feel Kyiv is once again growing too close to Europe.

So can Ukraine ever win?

Ukraine must stop the airborne wreckage by gaining air supremacy through the use of more sophisticated and larger anti-aircraft batteries and far more SAMs and Stinger smaller systems. Some NATO nations may have to send Ukraine their Soviet-era fighters to replace losses – with conditions that they stay inside Ukrainian air space.

Second, the supply war must no longer be defined as a larger Russian economy versus tiny Ukraine.

Instead, Putin is now warring against the supply chain of all of Europe and the United States – and all out of his reach. The Ukrainian war machine will only grow – if fueled by allies that combined account for 70 percent of the world’s GDP.

Putin cannot stop the influx of Western help unless he threatens to use nuclear weapons.

Ukraine may reach a tipping point soon if it can both stop Russian air attacks and expel Putin’s ground troops from its cities.

But Kyiv cannot realistically invade Russia to hit its supply depots. It cannot go nuclear to deter future Russian invasions. It cannot shame a bloodthirsty Putin on the world’s humanitarian stage.

And it cannot join NATO to win the direct help of 30 other nations.

But what Ukraine can do is push Russian troops back to the border regions and let the Russian-speaking Ukrainian borderlands work out their own star-crossed relationships with a now blood-soaked and unreliable Putin.

It can inflict such death and destruction on the conventional Russian military that Putin will fear he will suffer even worse global humiliation that the United States faced after Afghanistan.

Ukraine can also seek an armistice along the Black Sea coast.

It might agree to a plebiscite or some sort of demilitarized zone and small-scale population exchanges to ensure that Crimea does not become a permanent battleground.

All that is not outright victory, but it is something.

And that something was not imaginable when Russia invaded in late February.

END

RUSSIA/SWEDEN FINLAND/BALTIC STATES

Russia Warns Of Baltic Nuclear Build-Up If Finland & Sweden Enter NATO

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 09:45 AM

As expected in the wake of Finland’s announcement early this week that it could decide to apply for NATO membership “within weeks” – Russia has upped the ante by threatening nuclear escalation if that should happen. Sky News has cited the Thursday words of deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, as follows:

Russia has said there will be “no more talk of a nuclear–free Baltic” if Sweden and Finland join NATO. Such a development would more than double the length of the military alliance’s land borders with Russia, Moscow added.

Moscow sees the prospect as a hugely dire threat to its security interests given it shares a 810-mile long border with Finland. Putin has long explained the decision to invade Ukraine starting on Feb.24 by citing NATO expansion up to Russia’s borders.

“There can be no more talk of any nuclear–free status for the Baltic – the balance must be restored,” said Medvedev, a close Putin-ally and the former president.

“Until today, Russia has not taken such measures and was not going to,” Medvedev added. “If our hand is forced well… take note it wasn’t us who proposed this.”

“No sane person wants higher prices and higher taxes, increased tensions along borders, Iskanders, hypersonics and ships with nuclear weapons literally at arm’s length from their own home,” Medvedev went on to say. “Let’s hope that the common sense of our northern neighbors will win,” he added, appealing to the fact that both Finland and Sweden prior to the Ukraine war were neutral, expressly having a policy of staying out of NATO.

He said that if Finland is indeed poised to join the Western military alliance, then land borders will have to be strengthened. Russia would have to “seriously strengthen the grouping of ground forces and air defence (and) deploy significant naval forces in the Gulf of Finland,” he said.

Map source: The Daily Mail

Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson met in Stockholm on Wednesday to hold high level consultations on the matter of entering NATO, given that the decision of each would likely have great impact on the other.

Marin confirmed that Finland will now open serious domestic debate on the matter of seeking NATO membership by close of spring or summer. FT is reporting that a decision will come “within weeks” – based on statements out of Helsinki. Sweden has meanwhile said at this point it plans to seek formal membership.

END

RUSSIA

Pentagon Confirms Russian Warship Moskva Still Afloat But Badly Damaged

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 10:35 AM

In the overnight hours the question as to the precise fate of the Russian warship Moskva off the Odessa coast remained unclear. Into Thursday morning, there were still conflicting narratives after Ukraine’s military said it scored two direct hits on the vessel with Neptune anti-ship missiles, while the Kremlin admitted “serious damage” but said it was due to munitions being set off by a fire on board.

The wildly contrasting narratives opened up more as Russia issued a firm denial that the ship was hit, even as Ukraine’s southern military command said the Moskva started sinking. Western journalists have in some instances reported that Russian sailors, numbering over 500, have evacuated the stricken warship.

In a Thursday morning interview Pentagon spokesman John Kirby weighed in, telling CNN that the Moskva is still afloat but was badly damage. He did not offer confirmation of the Ukrainian version of events, but only said “there was an explosion”.

Kirby said, “We’re not quite exactly sure what happened here. We do assess that there was an explosion — at least one explosion on this cruiser — a fairly major one at that, that has caused extensive damage to the ship,” according to CNN.

“We assess that the ship is able to make its own way, and it is doing that; it’s heading more towards now we think the east. We think it’s probably going to be putting in at Sevastopol for repairs, but we don’t know what exactly caused that,” Kirby added.

Reuters has since reported the Russian defense ministry statement saying it’s being towed back to port, which does confirm severe damage:

Russia said the crew of its Black Sea fleet flagship were evacuated on Thursday and measures were being taken to tow the stricken ship back to port, after an explosion of ammunition on board that Ukraine said was caused by a missile strike.

Kirby had further described in the CNN interview that “The explosion was sizable enough that we picked up indications that other naval vessels around her tried to come to her assistance, and so eventually that wasn’t apparently needed. So she is making her own way across the Black Sea and we’ll continue to try and monitor this as best we can.”

At the same time national security advisor Jake Sullivan told an audience at an event in D.C. that “We’ve been in touch with the Ukrainians overnight who said they struck the ship with anti-ship missiles.” He admitted there’s little to go on in terms of which narrative of events is accurate: “We don’t have the capacity at this point to independently verify that, but certainly the way that this unfolded is a big blow to Russia.”

“This is their flagship, the ‘Moscow,’ and they’ve now been forced to admit that it’s been badly damaged,” Sullivan pointed out. “And they’ve had to kind of choose between two stories. One story is that it was just incompetence, and the other is that they came under attack. And neither is a particularly good outcome for them.”

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

More cross border attacks with Russia threatening major strikes on decision making centers

e.g Kiev.

Russia Alleges More Cross-Border Attacks, Threatens Strikes On “Decision-Making Centers”

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 02:44 PM

Not for the first time, Russia is alleging that Ukrainian forces have conducted a cross-border attack on Russian territory, however Kiev has rejected the claims, saying they are intended to stoke “anti-Ukrainian” sentiment among Putin’s domestic population.

“The village of Spodaryushino, near the border with Ukraine, had been shelled by Ukraine, Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of Russia’s Belgorod region, said in a statement on Telegram,” CNN cited the Russian official as saying. Moscow is threatening retaliation by striking “decision-making centers”.

No casualties were reported, but the governor said residents in the villages of Bezymeno and Spodaryushino had to be evacuated due to “shelling from the Ukrainian side” – which resulted in damage to buildings and residential property.

It comes days after Russia alleged a cross-border strike conducted by helicopters, which Russian authorities are now investigating.

“On April 14, 2022, using two combat helicopters equipped with heavy offensive weapons, military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine illegally entered the airspace of the Russian Federation. Moving at low altitude, they carried out at least 6 air strikes on residential buildings in the village of Klimovo, Klimovsky district, Bryansk region,” a government statement said.

In response to the alleged cross-border incidents aimed at Russians, the Kremlin is threating retaliation by hitting “decision-making centers” – which would include the capital of Kiev, due to what Russia says are “attempts of sabotage and strikes” on its territory. Each side continued to accuse the other of seeking to stage “provocations”.

For example, Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council issued a firm denial of the latest charges that it’s conducting attacks against Russian territory: “Thus, as of April 14, there have been several ‘terrorist attacks’ on the Russian border, in which the Russian leadership accuses Ukrainian sabotage and intelligence groups,” the statement said.

Get a load of this “Turkey”

Turkey Mulls Jail For Publishing ‘Unapproved’ Economic Data

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 02:05 PM

Economists in Turkey may face up to three years in prison for publishing ‘unofficial’ data on indicators without first obtaining approval from the country’s statistics agency, according to Bloomberg, which has seen a draft of the a law currently being drafted by the governing AK party.

The proposed legislation was set to be introduced to parliament this week, however two party officials speaking on condition of anonymity say there’s further work to be done on it.

The move comes as blistering inflation followed an earlier slump in the value of the lira – while Turkish elections are just over a year away.

In March, independent inflation researcher, ENAGroup, reported an annual inflation rate of 142.63% – more than double the official figure of 61.14%…

Infographic: Turkish Inflation Soaring After Years of Relative Stability | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

…leading to the Turkish Statistical Institute to file a complaint, accusing ENAGroup of “purposefully defaming” the institution and “misguiding public opinion.”

The draft law seen by Bloomberg would bar researchers from publishing any data on any platform without seeking approval from the statistics agency, which would have two months to assess methodology. Those found guilty of violating the law may face between 1 and 3 years in jail. -Bloomberg

An original version of the bill envisioned broadcast bans for websites that publish unapproved statistics – which ENAGroup has done, along with posting data on Twitter.

“Some of the manipulative statistics presented to the public under the name of scientific study without a clear methodology target both the Turkish Statistical Institute and the confidence in economic indicators,” reads the draft.

END

At Least One American Briefing West Point Cadets Understands Russia

Inbox

So far I would say Russia has been very restrained in use of what it can deploy an dit should be expected that will change soon.
If the crowd in Brussels deems not to pay this week on gas supplies as Russia insists then the gas will be cut off. To accept their latest, we cannot do so because of sanctions by Russia would be seen as a Russian surrender. And this will not occur.
So what will they do when gas is cut off? Germany will be forced to shut down within weeks if not days.
https://sonar21.com/at-least-one-american-briefing-west-point-cadets-understands-russia/

Cheers
Robert

6// GLOBAL COVID ISSUES/VACCINE MANDATE

END

GLOBAL ISSUES

USA/EUROPE

end

VACCINE MANDATES/

VACCINE INJURIES//

VACCINE IMPACT

Michael Every

Michael Every of Rabobank brings us the major stories of the day:

Rabobank: Countries Fearing Hunger Will Want To See A “Bread-on Woods” Deal

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 12:25 PM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Bread-on Woods

Today, I find myself in the unusual position of agreeing in public with something Janet Yellen also said. That didn’t happen all the time she was at the Fed, nor since she entered politics (while continuing to talk as if she is still at the Fed). Nonetheless, she just said it will be a “Long time, if ever” before the USD is replaced as key global currency: which matches what I argued in “Why ‘Bretton Woods 3’ Won’t Work”.

I’m sure we had very different reasons for saying it, especially given Yellen was in favor of massive US fiscal stimulus, but not of onshoring supply chains to ensure it was not inflationary. I’m sure she wasn’t thinking that saying ‘Bretton Woods 3’ is to say “mercantilism is baaaack!” – and that an incumbent military, commodity, and financial superpower, with key global alliances, and willing to run a trade deficit with those it favours, can thrive in that realpolitik environment,… if the people running the place recognize it. (Just Google ‘Hamilton’ – and I don’t mean the musical.)

Moreover, Yellen spoke about Bretton Woods too (not Two) at a speech at The Atlantic Council. She noted the Ukraine War and Western sanctions, “are now seeing higher commodity prices that have added to global inflationary pressures and are posing threats to energy and food security, trade flows, and external balances across many countries. Much of our work next week during the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings will be centred on how we can better support developing countries as they weather these shocks…”

As we had predicted in our pre-war analysis of the dynamic that Western sanctions would unleash, she warned that the time for being neutral is coming to an end:

“Let me now say a few words to those countries who are currently sitting on the fence, perhaps seeing an opportunity to gain by preserving their relationship with Russia and backfilling the void left by others. Such motivations are short-sighted. The future of our international order, both for peaceful security and economic prosperity, is at stake… Going forward, it will be increasingly difficult to separate economic issues from broader considerations of national interest, including national security.”

There was a named threat to China only: “The world’s attitude towards China and its willingness to embrace further economic integration may well be affected by China’s reaction to our call for resolute action on Russia.” (Not Germany, which is till refusing an immediate Russian energy ban.)

Yellen showed the US, like China and Russia’s ‘new world order’, also wants to shake the global architecture up. Specifically, Yellen mentioned the need achieve free but secure trade to prevent countries using their market position in key raw materials, technologies, or products to have the power to disrupt our economy or exercise unwanted geopolitical leverage. “Let’s build on and deepen economic integration and the efficiencies it brings – on terms that work better for American workers.” Again, Google ‘Hamilton’. “Let’s do it with the countries we know we can count on. Favouring the “friend-shoring” of supply chains to a large number of trusted countries, so we can continue to securely extend market access, will lower the risks to our economy, as well as to our trusted trade partners.”

She also pushed to implement last year’s global tax deal, revamp the IMF, better mobilise capital in support of people in developing countries, expedite the global transition to a more secure and cleaner energy future, and strengthen the global health architecture.

There were no details on any of these, and one can look for the synergies or the inconsistencies between them. However, the clear logic is that either China changes, or all economies will have to choose between dealing with either China or the West. In the Q&A, Yellen stated she did not want to see the evolution of a “bipolar” global system, with US- and Chinese-led camps, but that is exactly what is being threatened.

Of course, Wall Street will ignore this. They have the very high PPI number yesterday to worry about, where core pipeline inflation was double market estimates at 1.0% m/m, so 12% annualized: as I said yesterday, and Yellen didn’t last year, inflation looks entrenched.

Of course, big businesses will ignore this – in public at least. The potential disruption of only being able to do business where your government likes their government, even if you don’t like your government, is going to make corporate governance tricky.

Of course, China will ignore this too(?) Opinions are split – and so are the signals. Russian usage of CNY is booming, yet Huawei is boycotting Russia. However, Reuters says China’s oil giant CNOOC is preparing to exit the UK, Canada, and US over sanctions fears. Why would it be retreating if China is not going to do anything that could cause it to be subject to secondary sanctions?

Then one has to ask if the White House are serious (and is this seen as a serious White House?). If they mean it, there is likely to be bipartisan support in Congress, if not now, then after November.

The countries fearing hunger while watching this US-China-Russia stand-off will want to see a ‘Bread-on Woods’ deal as soon as possible: that is going to make food production and supply a vital geopolitical interest. From what was ‘bread and circuses’ to just plain bread.

Meanwhile, to underline what a serious world we are now in, it appears Russia’s Black Sea Fleet flagship, the Moskva, with 480 crew, has been sunk by Ukraine: what will the reaction to that loss of life and face be? In France, presidential challenger Le Pen has stated she views Crimea as Russian, which will make things very awkward for the West were she to win; and the US is sending much heavier weapons to Ukraine, such as artillery and helicopters.

I hope what is being discussed above — the role of the USD vs. commodity currencies and CNY, the global trading and financial architecture, and a future split within it — is sufficiently weighty that markets can grasp the implications. For those who prefer to focus on the smaller picture…

China is reportedly close to cutting its reserve requirement ratio and interest rates again, perhaps even today. Not that this has worked at all so far: and given Xi Jinping just underlined he is sticking with zero Covid lockdowns, it will be even less effective now.

By contrast, following the Bank of Canada and RBNZ both moving rates up by 50bp this week, Singapore also just de facto tightened monetary policy by the same amount, and the Fed is now set for aggressive hikes ahead. As noted in my report yesterday, what does that say for the outlook for Western fiat currencies vs. a ‘Bretton Woods 3’ CNY?

The RBA really doesn’t want to follow despite a booming commodities, what was soaring housing until market rates spiked without the RBA, and consumer inflation expectations rising to 5.2% from 4.9%, so may cling to Aussie jobs data (17.9K vs. 30K consensus; unemployment still at 4%, not 3.9% as expected). The ECB also meet today and will of course not move rates from 0.25% regardless of inflation because Euro-reasons.

Given tomorrow is a holiday, Happy Thursday, Easter, Chag Sameach, and Ramadan Mubarak.

7. OIL ISSUES

What’s Keeping China From Buying More Russian Crude?

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 01:06 PM

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Russia is offering deep discounts for its crude following a wave of sanctions on its energy industry.
While China and India are still buying some discounted oil, logistical hurdles are becoming increasingly difficult to navigate.
Contractual obligations and shipping constraints are posing major problems for would-be-buyers of Russian oil.

Outbound shipments of Russian oil have yet to show signs of a major decline, as many analysts feared last month. In fact, Russia’s shipments of crude oil rebounded in the first full week of April to the highest level so far this year, Bloomberg News’ tracker of crude leaving Russian ports showed on Monday. Yet, a “buyers’ strike” in Europe with many majors refusing to deal with Russian spot cargoes is forcing Russian crude to make much longer and complicated voyages to reach willing buyers in Asia. While China and India are not shying away from Russian crude – which sells at hefty discounts attracting price-sensitive buyers – the logistics of shipping oil from Russia’s Black Sea and Baltic ports to Asia and the scarce tanker availability, bank guarantees, and insurance for Russian cargoes would limit the amount of oil that Asia could take and compensate for lost barrels that are no longer going to Europe, analysts say.

Due to major shifts in global trade routes to accommodate more Russian oil going to Asia, the world’s top-importing crude region will not be able to accommodate all the oil Europe is shunning.

Shifts in trade routes are already happening.

Some volumes previously bound for the West will be replaced by Asia, but not all, analysts say. That’s because of the two-month-long trip to Asia (and a four-month round trip) which will necessitate many supertankers that are not readily available on the global tanker market, says

Zoltan Pozsar, Global Head of Short-Term Interest Rate Strategy at Credit Suisse. Before the war, 1.3 million bpd of Russian oil was shipped from the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust Luga to Europe on Aframax carriers, and these journeys to Hamburg or Rotterdam take a week or two to complete, Pozsar wrote in a market commentary on March 31.

“If Russia now needs to move the same amount of oil not to Europe but China, the first logistical problem it faces is that it can’t load Urals onto VLCCs in Primorsk or Ust Luga because those ports aren’t deep enough to dock VLCCs. Russia will first have to sail Aframax vessels to a port for STS crude transfer (ship -to -ship crude transfer) onto VLCCs,” Pozsar says.

The STS transfer takes weeks, and after the transfer is done, the VLCC will sail two months east, discharge, and go back to the Baltics, which is another two months.

“Conservatively, Russian crude traveled about a week or two before it fueled economic activity (the time it took to sail smaller Aframax carriers from Primorsk to Hamburg) and now will have to travel at least four months before it fuels economic activity,” Credit Suisse’s Pozsar notes.
“Worse, it’s not just the time to market that’s getting worse, but we also end up with a ship shortage and a corresponding surge in shipping freight rates,” he added.

According to OPEC’s analysis in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report published this week, “Tanker markets are being broadly impacted by uncertainties related to the conflict in Eastern Europe, which is expected to affect trade patterns.”

“Aframax spot freight rates around the Mediterranean are up more than 70% in March from January levels, while spot Suezmax rates in the Atlantic basin are some 50% higher over the same period. The strength filtered up to VLCCs, improving overall sentiment,” OPEC said.

The reshuffling of the Russian barrels is very attractive for buyers such as China and India due to the hefty discounts on Urals.

But refiners in China and India face challenges in taking up too much Russian crude in the short term because of contractual obligations with Middle Eastern producers, according to Wood Mackenzie.

In addition, China hasn’t shown yet too much appetite for Russian crude because of several factors, WoodMac said. These include expensive freight for Russian cargoes due to the sanctions, challenges with payments and tanker insurance, the fact that a Urals voyage takes double the time compared to Middle Eastern grades going to China, and Chinese refiners’ long-term contracts with oil exporters from the Middle East.

Russia may still have willing buyers for its oil in developing Asia, and those buyers may not care about the ethics of buying Russian crude, but they will certainly care about tanker rates and availability and much longer voyages.

END

This should turn out to be interesting: oil surges after a report the EU is drafting a ban on Russian crude

(zerohedge)

Oil Surges To Session Highs After Report EU Drafting Ban On Russian Crude

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 01:33 PM

Not one day seems to pass without the EU taking an aggressive step toward comprehensive self-destruction.

Today, we learn that the “not-quite-yet-green” continent is doing everything it can to make investors in evil fossil fuels and commodity bulls even richer as after weeks of waffling, European officials are drafting plans for an embargo on Russian oil products according to the NYT, the most contested measure yet to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and a move long resisted because of its big costs for Germany and its potential to disrupt politics around the region and increase energy prices.

Having earlier this month banned Russian coal, a move which sent coal prices around the globe to all time highs, the European Union is now likely to adopt a similarly phased ban of Russian oil, E.U. officials and diplomats said, and for what reason: so politicians can signal their virtue (furthermore, the approach is designed to give Germany, in particular, time to arrange alternative suppliers and so will unlikely be implemented for a long, long time).

According to the NYT report, the earliest the proposed embargo will be put up for negotiation will be after the final round of the French elections, on April 24, to ensure that the impact on prices at the pump doesn’t fuel the populist candidate Marine Le Pen and hurt president Emmanuel Macron’s chances of re-election, officials said.

In other words, Europeans know very well just how unpopular such a measure will eventually be, but still they want to ram it through just because. The outcome will be a drop of millions of barrels in Russian supply, and much, much higher prices.

And just so European politicians – and everyone else for that matter – knows what is coming should a Russian oil embargo be triggered, oil, which was trading red on the day for unknown, opex-related reasons earlier, has soared and Brent was last seen well over $110, and on its way to wiping out all Biden SPR release losses.

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia//// NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA

end

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0886 DOWN .0008 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN

USA/ YEN 125.22 DOWN 0.156 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3134 UP 0.0016

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 38.82 PTS OR 1.22%

Hang Sang CLOSED UP 143.71 PTS OR 0.67%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.65% // EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 143.71 OR 0.67%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 38.82 PTS OR 1.22%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.65%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 328.51 PTS OR 1.22%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1977.60

silver:$25.62

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 99.62 DOWN 26 CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

THIS ENDS THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.71% UP 6 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.243% up 0 AND 3/10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.77%// UP 8 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 2.50 UP 12 points in basis points yield ./

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 69 points higher than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISE TO +0.84% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 1.66% AND NOW ABOVE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A HUGE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0799 DOWN .0095 or 95 basis points

USA/Japan: 125.89 UP .538 OR YEN DOWN 54 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3061 DOWN 58 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN 49 BASIS pts to 1.2617

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.3780

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.3370

TURKISH LIRA: 14.60 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.243

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 10 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.787% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.879 UP 8 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 100.50 UP 59 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 33.68PTS OR 0.44%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 97.76 POINTS OR 0.69%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 60.17PTS OR 0921%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 102.30 PTS OR 1.19%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 163.56 PTS OR 0.66%

WTI Oil price 102.58 12: EST

Brent Oil: 106.78 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE RISES TO: 79.83 UP 1/8 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +.840

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0826 DOWN .0069 OR DOWN 69 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3075 DOWN .0044 or DOWN 44 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 125.97 UP .596//YEN DOWN 60 PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2616 UP .0048 (CDN dollar DOWN 48 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 106.16

Brent OIL: 111.04

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.828 UP 14 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.919 UP 12 pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 14.61

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA///USA/ ROUBLE: 80.89 UP 1 1/0 ROUBLES (ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 1/10 ROUBLES/USA

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 113.36 PTS OR 0.33%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 324.08 PTS OR 2.28%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 22.16 UP 0.34 PTS (1.56%)

GLD: 184.04 DOWN 0.61 PTS OR 0.33%

SLV/ 23.75 DOWN .11 PTS OR 0.46%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

“It’s A Shitshow Of Illiquidity Everywhere” – Market Mayhem Strikes Ahead Of Long Weekend

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 04:01 PM

One quick glance across your screens today and you would think WW3 actually started or Biden died or some such epochal event… but no. Instead, amid some modest softness in retail sales and surging sentiment, the magnitude of movements in bond yields, bitcoin, big-tech & bank stocks, and the dollar appears to have been driven more by positioning and panic than any fundamentals. As one trader – who has traded for more than one business cycle – put it so eloquently to us on MSG:

“It’s a shitshow of illiquidity everywhere… [insert expletive of choice]… and The Fed hasn’t even started actually yanking the rug out yet!!!”

Even the much more ‘well spoken’ Mohamed El-Erian doesn’t know what to make of the vol…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19zZW5zaXRpdmVfbWVkaWFfaW50ZXJzdGl0aWFsXzEzOTYzIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6ImludGVyc3RpdGlhbCIsInZlcnNpb24iOjR9fQ%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1514607758343282692&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fits-shitshow-illiquidity-everywhere-market-mayhem-strikes-ahead-long-weekend&sessionId=1963259b7edabfdcc29507552fd80b632f8a9e6e&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=c8fe9736dd6fb%3A1649830956492&width=550px

Oh and don’t forget, democracy itself is/was at stake after Elon Musk’s offer for TWTR – that alone probably explains the mayhem </sarcasm>…

So let’s take a look at the market mayhem…

Stocks puked (led by big-tech) – don’t forget that today saw $2.1 trillion opex…

An ugly week too for Nasdaq (down 3%) and S&P (Small Caps managed to rise 0.5% on the week)…

On the week, big-tech was battered along with banks while Energy and Materials outperformed…

Source: Bloomberg

Value and Growth pumped and dumped all over each other all week…

Source: Bloomberg

And “Most Shorted” stocks swung wildly (Except today)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were a total bloodbath today leaving 30Y yields up 20bps on the week (while 2Y managed to hold -5bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

For context, 10Y yields spiked a massive 19bps off early morning highs today!!!

Source: Bloomberg

All of which extended the massive steepening we have seen in the last two weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

Note that rate-hike expectations remain flat (around 9 more hikes in 2022), but the subsequent rate-cut expectations are shifting hawkishly…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar exploded higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Euro puked to two-year lows, dips under $1.08

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was battered back below $40,000…

Source: Bloomberg

The energy complex re-exploded this week with oil prices erasing all of the Biden SPR cunning plan move and surging higher…

And NatGas soaring even more…

For some context, that means US NatGas is now trading at $124 per barrel oil equivalent – more expensive than UK gas currently…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold surged up to one month highs…

Ags also returned to their meltup this week as Putin seemed to hint at more pain to come. Corn soared to multi-year highs…

Finally, Happy Easter, and let’s hope this analog breaks down soon…

Source: Bloomberg

Can an approval rating go negative?

Source: Bloomberg

We’re gonna need someone/something else to blame!

END

I) /MORNING TRADING/

AFTERNOON

END

II)USA data

USA economy going nowhere!

(zerohedge)

US Retail Sales Growth Slowest In 13 Months As Online Spending Plunged

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 08:39 AM

Americans’ credit cards are taking a beating – as was evident in the plunge in the savings rate and the surge in revolving consumer credit – to enable them to keep the dream alive and spend beyond their means and that over-reach enabled them to increase retail sales spending by 0.5% MoM – as expected in March. Notably, the rise in retail sales year-over-year is decelerating dramatically (up only 6.9% YoY – the lowest since Feb 2021)…

Source: Bloomberg

The relative weakness was driven by a huge drop in non-store retailer sales (online) MoM leaving sales up just 1.8% YoY.

However, before everyone celebrates this rise in retail sales, we note that the ‘Control Group’ – which filters to the GDP calculation – unexpectedly dropped 0.1% MoM (vs a 0.1% MoM rise expected).

Both goods and services sales growth slowed dramatically in March…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as a reminder, retail sales data is nominal – i.e. not adjusted for inflation. While the two data series are not ‘fungible’ per se – i.e. not weighted the same by product – we can get some idea of ‘real’ retail sales by reducing the headline data by CPI… It was negative for the second straight month…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, the March advance was led by a 8.9% jump in spending for gasoline. Excluding receipts at gas stations, sales fell 0.3% last month.

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, don’t forget that real wages growth has been negative for 13 straight months.

END

U.S. retail sales rise 0.5% in March, but high gas prices and inflation take a toll

April 14, 2022 at 8:41 a.m. ET

MarketWatch

U.S. households still spending a lot, but they’re often simply paying more

The numbers: Sales at U.S. retailers rose a mild 0.5% in March and a large part of the increase reflected higher gasoline prices, suggesting inflation is taking a toll on U.S. households.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.6% advance.

One bit of good news: Sales in February were revised up to show a 0.8% increase instead of 0.3%, the government reported Thursday.

If gas stations and auto dealers are set aside, retail sales rose an even smaller 0.2% last month.

Retail sales are a big part of consumer spending and offer clues on the strength of the U.S. economy. While Americans are still buying lots of goods and services, they often simply just paying more money.

The cost of living jumped 1.2% in March, according to the consumer price index. Adjusted for inflation, retail sales fell sharply in March.

U.S. retail sales in March +0.5%

Autos & parts -1.9%

Home furnishings 0.7%

Electronics & appliances 3.3%

Home & garden centers 0.5%

Food & beverages 1%

Health & personal care -0.3%

Gasoline stations 8.9%

Clothing 2.6%

Sporting goods & hobbies 3.3%

General stores 5.4%

Miscellaneous stores 0.8%

Internet (nonstore) retailers -6.4%

Bars & restaurants 1%

Big picture: High inflation is outstripping wage gains for workers and pinching households budgets. Americans are thinking twice about what they buy and how much and seeking out cheaper alternatives.

-END-

UMich Sentiment Survey Surges In April On Biggest Spike In ‘Hope’ In 16 Years

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 10:09 AM

Preliminary April expectations for University of Michigan’s Sentiment Survey were for a further deterioration in Americans’ confidence, but, despite collapse in President Biden’s approval rating back to its lows, UMich surged higher in flash April data. The headline print exploded from 59.4 to 65.7 (against expectations of a drop to 59.0) thanks to a massive spike in ‘hope’ as Expectations jumped from 54.3 to 64.1 (vs 53.6 exp), bouncing of an 11 year low…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest jump in expectations since Sept 2006.

Even UMich itself was shocked…

“Consumer Sentiment jumped by a surprising 10.6% in early April, although it remained below January’s reading and lower than in any prior month in the past decade.”

Nearly the entire gain was in the Expectations Index, which posted a monthly gain of 18.0%, including a leap of 29.4% in the year-ahead outlook for the economy and a 17.2% jump in personal financial expectations. A strong labor market bolstered wage expectations among consumers under age 45 to 5.3%-the largest expected gain in more than three decades, since April 1990.

Oddly, given the hype of hope, Buying Conditions remained extremely tepid!

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, and perhaps most importantly, inflation expectations remained at their highest since Dec 1981…

Source: Bloomberg

But don’t worry, The Fed keeps telling us that ‘inflation expectations remain well anchored”… oh and the subprime crisis is contained.

We leave the last words to UMich’s Rich Curtin to steal the jam out of the hope-filled sentiment donut: “Nonetheless, the April survey offers only tentative evidence of small gains in sentiment, which is still too close to recession lows to be reassuring.”

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

Doorknob! Biden extends mask mandate for Americans yet he scraps all restrictions for illegal border migrants

(Watson/SummitNews)

Biden Extends Mask Mandate For Americans, While Scrapping All Restrictions For Illegal Border Migrants

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 08:15 AM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

While simultaneously ending all COVID restrictions for migrants crossing illegally into the United States, Joe Biden’s CDC has extended mask mandates for Americans on planes and public transport.

A CDC statement declares “Since early April, there have been increases in the seven-day moving average of cases in the U.S. The CDC Mask Order remains in effect while CDC assesses the potential impact of the rise of cases on severe disease, including hospitalizations and deaths, and healthcare system capacity.”

The agency announced that “TSA will extend the security directive and emergency amendment for 15 days, through May 3, 2022.”

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki wasn’t prepared to comment on the possibility that the mandate will be further extended next month:

Of course they will keep pushing this further back:

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis described the move as “the Biden equivalent of continuing the beatings until morale improves.”

Senator Rand Paul called the move ‘tyrannical’:

Meanwhile, at the same time, Biden is ending the Title 42 public health authority on May 23. Allowing illegal migrants to be swiftly returned to their home countries, the order was instated by President Trump to protect Americans from exposure to COVID and other diseases.

It is now expected that somewhere in the region of 18,000-30,000 migrants will pour across the border every day.

At least it will solve the inflation crisis.

Every cloud.

* * *

end

Watch: Fauci Admits “You Use Lockdowns To Get People Vaccinated”

BY TYLER DURDEN

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 03:05 PM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Appearing on MSNBC Wednesday, Anthony Fauci let the truth about lockdowns slip… that they are theatre designed to scare people into getting vaccinated.

When asked by host Andrea Mitchell about the unfolding lockdown hellscape in China, Fauci actually praised the Communist government’s actions.

Fauci stated “China has a number of problems, two of which are that the complete lockdown, which was their approach, a strictest lockdown you’d never be able to implement in the United States. Although that prevents the spread of infection, I remember early on they were saying, and I think accurately, they were doing better than anyone else.”

Then came the kicker as Fauci declared “You use lockdowns to get people vaccinated so that when you open up, you won’t have a surge of infections.”

Completely ignoring the concept of natural immunity, Fauci added “Because you’re dealing with an immunologically naive population of the virus because they’ve not been exposed because of the lockdown.”

He went on to state that China’s vaccines are not good enough.

“The problem is the vaccines they’ve been using are not nearly as effective as the vaccines used in the United States, UK, EU, and other places. So, they don’t have the degree of protection that’s optimal,” Fauci claimed.

He continued, “Also, they have a lot of their older population, which are the most vulnerable among us, and so, there’s a double negative there. One, they don’t have people who are protected, and B, the people who need it most, are not getting the vaccination. That’s the source of the problem in China.”

Watch:

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1514289878405718019&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fcovid-19%2Fwatch-fauci-admits-you-use-lockdowns-get-people-vaccinated&sessionId=e722a6ba50af25f01957ce7d6deabdead1acebe7&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=c8fe9736dd6fb%3A1649830956492&width=550px

Isn’t the more immediate ‘source of the problem’ in China that people are being locked up in their box homes and starved to death in a maniacal quest for ‘zero COVID’?

end

iiia) USA inflation//SHIPPING commentaries//LOG JAMS//

Mexican Border Blockade Threatens To Leave US Supermarkets Without Produce Ahead Of Easter

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 04:40 PM

More than a hundred million dollars worth of Mexican produce is stuck at the U.S.-Mexico border due to a trucker blockade on the Mexican side over Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s new border search policy, according to Bloomberg. The disruption could leave some US supermarkets without produce ahead of Easter weekend.

Abbott’s controversial truck-inspection program ignited discontent with Mexican truckers who shut down the Reynosa International Bridge, one of the busiest trade crossings in the Rio Grande Valley and handles a large volume of fresh produce, four days ago. The Washington Examiner reports the bridge was forced to reopen Thursday after drug cartel members torched several trucks.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1514631963537297411&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fcommodities%2Fmexican-border-blockade-threatens-leave-us-supermarkets-without-produce-ahead-easter&sessionId=ce8ef180147343792911a6d039d4e7e1ddd4f76f&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=c8fe9736dd6fb%3A1649830956492&width=550px

Still, the port of entry into the US appears to be gridlocked.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-1&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1514651846438182918&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fcommodities%2Fmexican-border-blockade-threatens-leave-us-supermarkets-without-produce-ahead-easter&sessionId=ce8ef180147343792911a6d039d4e7e1ddd4f76f&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=c8fe9736dd6fb%3A1649830956492&width=550px

Texas International Produce Association (TIPA) said about $150 million worth of fruit and vegetables inbound to the US has been halted at the bridge and could delay deliveries for fruit and vegetables, such as avocados, broccoli, peppers, strawberries, and tomatoes, to US supermarkets.

“Going into this Easter weekend, consumers will see store shelves devoid of certain items,” Dante L. Galeazzi, CEO of the TIPA, warned.

Last week, Abbott ordered commercial trucks from Mexico to undergo a second layer of inspections by state troopers to search for drugs. Truckers were furious with the governor because transit time through the port of entry was dramatically slowed. So, they ultimately blocked traffic to the bridge on the Mexican side earlier this week which halted flows on both sides.

Impending food shortages are so concerning that Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller warned avocados prices could soar to $5 apiece. There’s also the risk the produce section of some supermarkets could have empty shelves.

For some context, the US imports about 50% of vegetables and 40% of the fruit from Mexico. The US is reliant on Mexico’s produce supply. So disruptions at the border could outline the fragility of US food supply chains.

end

IIIB) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

USPS Stops Service To Santa Monica Neighborhood Following Attacks On Mail Carriers

WEDNESDAY, APR 13, 2022 – 10:20 PM

Authored by Jamie Joseph via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

One neighborhood in Santa Monica will not be receiving postal service from the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) until further notice after “multiple carriers have been subjected to assaults and threats of assault from an individual who has not been located or apprehended,” according to a postal letter sent out to residents alerting them of the change.A USPS mail carrier prepares for a shift in Los Angeles, Calif. on Jan. 21, 2022. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

Santa Monica residents located on the 1300 block of 14th Street received a USPS letter on April 7 which read, “the safety of our employees and of the mail they deliver to you is our highest concern. Until we can ensure the safety of both, delivery services will remain suspended.”

It’s unclear when the services for paper mail will resume, but private carriers are still delivering packages to the neighborhood.

Residents in the neighborhood are encouraged to pick up their mail at the post office on 7th Street.

Only one assault has been officially reported, according to a CBS report, and the victim did not press charges. But a USPS spokesperson said there have been three separate incidents with three different carriers in the neighborhood over the last few months.

The U.S. Postal Inspection Service, the law enforcement branch of the USPS, told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement that they are “aware of the recent reports of suspicious activity towards Postal Carriers in Santa Monica, California.”

“Postal Inspectors are currently investigating the incidents and are unable to comment further at this time,” a U.S. Postal Inspection Service spokesperson said. “Postal Inspectors encourage anyone who observes suspicious activity involving U.S. Mail to report it to local police and to Postal Inspectors at 1-877-876-2455.”

Lt. Erika R. Aklufi of the Santa Monica Police Department told The Epoch Times in an email that the “USPS issued the letter and as far as we know did not contact our department before sending it.”

“I tried calling the two phone numbers on the letter—one went unanswered, the other had a voicemail box that is full,” Aklufi wrote in the email.

Aklufi said, with a lead from one of the Santa Monica police officers who is familiar with the location, officers located a crime report for an assault with a deadly weapon—a broomstick—incident on a USPS mail carrier on the 1300 block of 14th Street on Jan. 19.

The suspect lived in the area “and is known to our officers and also to the mail carrier he attacked,” Akulfi said.

The victim sustained a minor injury to his arm and did not require medical attention, she said, and the officers who took the report contacted the U.S. Postal Inspection Service on the day of the incident to provide information should they wish to follow up.

“We do not know if the [U.S. Postal Inspection Service] did so,” she said.

Other incidents of USPS mail carriers being attacked were not identified.

“Without speaking to the postmaster, it will be difficult to know the extent of this issue. I have never heard of the Postal Service suspending service for all residents in a neighborhood, and can only refer you to them for answers about their course of action,” she said.

END

This is going to hurt our snowflakes. Musk is offering 43 billion dollars to purchase Twitter

(zerohedge)

“Best And Final Offer” – Elon Musk Offers To Buy Twitter For $54.20 Per Share

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 06:36 AM

It’s a worst case scenario for the easily triggered snowflake employees at Twitter: Elon Musk has just offered to buy the entire company. And even in doing so, he hasn’t stopped trolling.

Elon Musk has made a bold move by offering to purchase 100% of Twitter for around $43 billion.

According to an updated 13D filing read that Musk offered “to acquire all of the outstanding Common Stock of the Issuer not owned by the Reporting Person for all cash consideration valuing the Common Stock at $54.20 per share (which values the company around $43 billion),” warning Twitter management this is his “high price” and “if the deal doesn’t work,” he would “reconsider my position as a shareholder.”

Here is the letter Musk sent to Twitter’s chairman disclosed in the 13D filing.

Bret Taylor
Chairman of the Board,
I invested in Twitter as I believe in its potential to be the platform for free speech around the globe, and I believe free speech is a societal imperative for a functioning democracy.
However, since making my investment I now realize the company will neither thrive nor serve this societal imperative in its current form. Twitter needs to be transformed as a private company.
As a result, I am offering to buy 100% of Twitter for $54.20 per share in cash, a 54% premium over the day before I began investing in Twitter and a 38% premium over the day before my investment was publicly announced. My offer is my best and final offer and if it is not accepted, I would need to reconsider my position as a shareholder.
Twitter has extraordinary potential. I will unlock it.
-Elon Musk

Reminiscent of Musk’s previous ‘420’-related faux pas, we do note that the boiler plate in the filing also raises the specter of whether this deal is ‘funding secured’…

“The Proposal is non-binding and, once structured and agreed upon, would be conditioned upon, among other things, the (i) receipt of any required governmental approvals; (ii) confirmatory legal, business, regulatory, accounting and tax due diligence; (iii) the negotiation and execution of definitive agreements providing for the Proposed Transaction; and (iv) completion of anticipated financing,” the filing noted.

Here’s a text Musk sent Twitter management:

“As I indicated this weekend, I believe that the company should be private to go through the changes that need to be made. After the past several days of thinking this over, I have decided I want to acquire the company and take it private. I am going to send you an offer letter tonight, it will be public in the morning. Are you available to chat?”

And the transcript of a voicemail:

Best and Final:

a. I am not playing the back-and-forth game.

b. I have moved straight to the end.

c. It’s a high price and your shareholders will love it.

d. If the deal doesn’t work, given that I don’t have confidence in management nor do I believe I can drive the necessary change in the public market, I would need to reconsider my position as a shareholder.

i. This is not a threat, it’s simply not a good investment without the changes that need to be made.
ii. And those changes won’t happen without taking the company private.

2. My advisors and my team are available after you get the letter to answer any questions

a. There will be more detail in our public filings. After you receive the letter and review the public filings, your team can call my family office with any questions.

Shares in the social media platform soared as much as 18% on the news.

It’s been a wild rollercoaster of events over the few weeks.

These investment management firms are missing out on the Musk gains; Melvin Capital dumped its position as of 12/31/21 filings.

Twitter has responded with a boiler plate confirmation that it has received the offer and will complete its due diligence; however, it remains to be seen if the company sells for $54.20 per share in cash, considering share prices have traded at a higher premium.

Elon Musk’s $54.20 per share offer for Twitter Inc. is “too low” for shareholders or the board to accept, Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli said in a report. Crisafulli adds that Twitter’s shares was at about $70 less than a year ago. – Bloomberg

Liberal elites are none too pleased – as we have detailed recently – and it didn’t take long for them to be rushing out op-eds to drive the narrative…

Pickard appears to want to privatize the platform (for the safety of all?)…

Core communications systems like Twitter shouldn’t be left to the whims of billionaires and profit-driven monopolies in the first place.
Until we radically democratize such platforms and treat them as the essential public infrastructures they are – shared resources that shouldn’t be governed by market forces alone – Musk, Trump, or some other petulant billionaire can come along and make them their playthings.
…
But if we allow the marketplace of ideas to be conflated with the capitalist market, wealthy white men like Musk will continue to have much louder voices—amplified by their tens of millions of Twitter followers, their obscene wealth, and their unquestioned fealty to market libertarianism.

We wonder how they would feel about the offer if the ‘bilionaire’ in question was not from “the other side” or had a different skin color? Does he not know that Musk is an African American?

Employees have said they are “super stressed” and “working together to help each other get through the week” – whatever the hell that means.

One Twitter employee told Bloomberg earlier in the week that they were concerned that Musk was “just getting started, which is unfortunate.” Other employees described the situation as a “shit show”.

Rumman Chowdhury, a director on Twitter’s AI research team, said: “Musk’s immediate chilling effect was something that bothered me significantly.”

“Twitter has a beautiful culture of hilarious constructive criticism, and I saw that go silent because of his minions attacking employees,” he continued.

Well the shit show has now officially entered into another phase. – though we’re sure there has to be a couple of employees quietly happy with the gains being made in their investment accounts…

And now it’s time for our daily live check in at the employees at Twitter HQ:

One final thought…see above picture!

end

iv)swamp stories
Funnnnnny!!

Bienvenidos! First Texas Bus Full Of Migrants Dropped Off In Washington DC

WEDNESDAY, APR 13, 2022 – 08:20 PM

A special delivery from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott arrived in Washington D.C. Wednesday morning, as a bus full of dozens of illegal immigrants stopped just blocks away from the US Capitol building at approximately 8 a.m. local time.

The bus was sent following an announcement by Abbott last week that the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) would provide charter buses or flights to transport illegal immigrants released into the US by the feds, to D.C.Texas Gov. Greg Abbott

According to Fox News, individuals disembarked one-by-one, except for families who exited together. Donning wristbands which were cut off before their release, the migrants checked in with officials.

According to TDEM, Abbott’s plan is already working. The agency told Fox News on Monday that many of the communities that originally reached out for support – from the Rio Grande Valley to Terrell County – say the federal government stopped dropping immigrants in their towns since Abbott’s announcement on April 6.
Some had questioned whether Abbott’s plan to bus migrants was genuine. The White House dismissed it as a “publicity stunt.” Even Texas state Rep. Matt Schaefer, a Republican, called it a “gimmick.” –Fox News

The Epoch Times reported last week that Abbott’s order came in response to the lifting of Title 42 by the Biden administration earlier this month – a CDC order that was invoked in March 2020 under President Donald Trump to minimize the spread of COVID-19 by ensuring that only essential travel occurred at U.S. borders.

It directed that illegal immigrants could be quickly expelled back into Mexico as a pandemic precaution, rather than be processed under Title 8 immigration law, which is a much more protracted process inside the United States.

As the Biden administration prepares to drop the measure on May 23, Border Patrol agents and local officials along the border are bracing for an even greater influx of illegal immigrants.

According to TDEM, buses were dispatched over the weekend to border communities, where officials coordinated to identify the migrants.

“Texans demand and deserve an aggressive, comprehensive strategy to secure our border—not President Biden’s lackluster leadership,” Abbott said in a statement. “As the federal government continues to roll back commonsense policies that once kept our communities safe, our local law enforcement has stepped up to protect Texans from dangerous criminals, deadly drugs, and illegal contraband flooding into the Lone Star State.”

end

Hunter Biden Likely To Be Charged Under FARA… If DoJ Applies The Mueller Standard

THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 – 09:25 AM

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

As US Attorney David Weiss leads a long line of witnesses before a grand jury, Washington is preparing for the possibility of an indictment of the son of President Joe Biden, Hunter. This has led to a nosebleed of a turn for the media, as major outlets suddenly acknowledge that the story that they tried to kill in 2020 is in fact legitimate.

Many legal experts have insisted that any prosecution for tax violations would be uncommon or unwarranted because Hunter Biden belatedly paid taxes after the start of the investigation. However, not only are tax and international transactional violations still possible, there is a looming threat of charges under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA).

This week, I testified in the House Judiciary Committee on enhancements of FARA and was asked whether Hunter Biden could be charged under the act. The answer is clearly yes. Indeed, if the Justice Department applies the standard used in the Paul Manafort case, it would seem like such a charge is not just possible, but even probable.

The similarities of the Manafort and Biden cases are striking.

On a personal level, both men had ravenous levels of material consumption. Where Manafort had his $15,000 ostrich coat, Biden had his high-priced hookers and $143,000 Fisker sports car. Both burned through money and found themselves with towering debts.

However, the greatest similarity is how they paid those bills. The Manafort indictment included charges for lobbying on behalf of the Ukrainian government and Ukrainian political parties from 2008 to 2014. He did not register under FARA, which has sweeping terms covering such work.

While FARA was rarely used for criminal investigations and prosecutions, special counsel Robert Mueller seemed to charge by the gross under the act. He hit a line of Trump associates with such allegations from Manafort to Michael Flynn to George Papadopoulos to Rick Gates. More recently, the Justice Department used FARA to conduct searches on the homes and files of former Trump counsel Rudy Giuliani, Republican counsel Victoria Toensing and others.

The recent use of FARA was celebrated by legal experts and media figures. Now, however, Hunter Biden is the target and the evidence against him on FARA may actually be worse than Manafort in some respects.

In Biden’s laptop, there are hundreds of e-mails detailing work with “foreign principals,” which can include not just foreign governments or foreign agencies, but foreign-based companies, nonprofits and individuals, including Americans living in foreign countries. That would covers companies like CEFC, which had close ties to the Chinese government.

Biden does not appear to have done much, if any, conventional legal work for these foreign sources, despite his high fees. Indeed, there is no record Hunter did anything to earn the cool $1 million given to him to “represent” CEFC’s Patrick Ho, who was later convicted and sentenced to three years in prison.

Instead, the record shows Biden advising and facilitating access for foreign clients, including meetings with his father. That includes, like Manafort, dealings with Ukrainian officials and businesses.

There was nothing subtle about the alleged influence-peddling effort of Hunter Biden or his uncle James. In Washington, influence peddling is a virtual cottage industry. However, there was a little sophistication in these e-mails to hide the corruption. The Hunter dealings were more like influence peddling by eBay in terms of the raw pitches and open admissions.

On May 1, 2017, Hunter Biden recognized how his work with CEFC at a minimum could trigger FARA and acknowledged that his uncle was also aware of the danger:

“No matter what it will need to be a US company at some level in order for us to make bids on federal and state funded projects. Also We [sic] don’t want to have to register as foreign agents under the FCPA which is much more expansive than people who should know choose not to know. James has very particular opinions about this so I would ask him about the foreign entity.”

The e-mail is a prosecutor’s dream. FARA violations, like tax violations, can be viewed as cut-and-dried charges for jurors. In this case, the potential defendant not only incriminated himself under the law, but his associates and family, as well.

That is why, if the Justice Department applies the same standard applied to figures like Manafort, Biden would likely be indicted.

The question is whether the same standard will apply. I have long criticized the sweeping language of FARA. However, the Justice Department has shifted from prior administrative enforcement to criminal prosecutions. The Justice Department in recent years has convicted various individuals for engaging in public relations and lobbying efforts for foreign countries, including China and Ukraine.

A sudden shift away from such criminal enforcement would raise questions of favored treatment — and magnify the concern over Attorney General Merrick Garland refusing to appoint a special counsel in the scandal.

In The Washington Post, the Manafort and other FARA cases were heralded as essential to protecting democracy. A columnist concluded, “FARA can be a powerful tool for detecting those foreign instruments. We should use it. No matter whom it ensnares.”

It has now ensnared the son of President Biden. The question is whether the Justice Department and the media still have the same appetite for FARA prosecutions.

The King Report (including swamp stories)

The King Report April 14, 2022 Issue 6739

Independent View of the News

US March PPI soared 1.4% m/m and 11.2% y/y (record high); 1.1% m/m and 10.6% were expected.   Core PPI rose 1.0% m/m and 9.2% y/y; 0.5% m/m and 10.6% y/y were exp.  PPI Finished Goods soared 15.2% NSA y/y. Feb PPI was revised to 10.3% from 10%, the negative revisions trend continues.

Chart of Flexible Price CPI ex-Food & Energy shows the metric greatly exceeds peaks from the ‘70s.
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1513937147576954886/photo/1

@NorthmanTrader: If you include food and energy, it’s 25%, but hey, they’re selling you 8.5%
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1513938967812624388/photo/1

When Biden was elected, we opined that Democrats would be lucky if Biden became only as bad as Jimmy Carter. Joey Baby is far worse.

JP Morgan reported 2.63 EPS; 2.72 was expected. JPM booked a $524m loss on Russia: “Funding spread widening relating to both increases in commodity exposures and markdowns of derivatives receivables from Russia-associated counterparties.” JPM, a ‘bank’ is one of the largest commodity traders in the known universe. Also contributing to the disappointing EPS: JPM added “$902 million in credit reserves largely due to higher probabilities of downside risks.”

Delta reported -1.23 EPS; -1.26 was expected. Delta CEO Ed Bastian: “The company booked more flights in March than any other month in its 90-plus year history…” DAL soared 4.5% by 9:36 ET. This modest EPS ‘beat’ induced manic buying in other airlines. The DJTA jumped 1.3% by 9:41 ET.

WTI Oil soared early on Wednesday; its May contract hit 102.89 at 7:21 ET. Gasoline rallied over 5 cents. Bonds were +18/32 by 9:45 ET; the dollar rallied modestly.
@JackDetsch : Russia has established THREE major staging areas on Ukraine’s border for operations in the Donbas in Belgorod, Valuyki, and Rovenki: senior U.S. defense official. Russia conducted 150 manned air sorties over Ukraine in the last 24 hours: senior U.S. defense official.

Russia threatened Kyiv directly and Zelenskyy indirectly when it stated that if attacks on Russian soil continue, ‘Russia will attack places where decisions are made, including Kyiv’.

Putin bids to outnumber Ukrainian troops five to one in the Donbas region – The Times
(A 3-1 troop advantage is the recommended minimum ratio for offensive attacks.)

@IuliiaMendel: Russian troops in eastern and southern Ukraine are ready for offensive actions – General Staff of the Ukrainian army.

At 11:00 ET, ESMs and stocks surged higher for the European close rally and the Weird Wednesday manipulation.  A record increase in PPI, mortgage rates above 5%, and an escalation in Russia’s war on Ukraine are no match for trading games and schemes during expiration week!!!

SPY April call volumes were modest for a Weird Wednesday. By 12:30 ET, 56,000 April 440 SPY calls traded. SPY was 442.00 at the time. The volume for the April 443 call, the first out of the money call was only 24k. The SPY April 444 calls had only 13k volume; the April 445 volume was 33k.

Despite the low SPY call volume, Weird Wednesday appeared in all its glory. Retail and guppy traders generated the rally; whales were absent for the most part. ESMs hit at a new high at 13:12 ET. ESMs had rallied 52.50 from their 4384.00 low. SPY April call volumes remained lackluster; SPY April put volumes only increased modestly.

While ESMs and US stocks were hitting new daily high, WTI Oil hit 104.11 and natural gas Natural Gas surged 5% and traded above $7. This is the highest level since the inflation peak of 2008 (Oil hit 140).

Russia’s troop mobilization for the Battle of Donbas was trumping Biden’s SPR release gambit.

Grains soared on the coming Russian offensive. May Corn hit 786.25, its highest price since 9/2012.

Amazon announced a “Fuel and Inflation Fee” of 5% on sellers. Yet shills see the inflation peak!

@RNCResearch: NBC: More and more Americans are turning to foodbanks as Biden’s “unrelenting inflation crisis keeps getting worse.”  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1514035633567801355

@CNBCClosingBell: “Right now our main concern is getting these prices down, and we can do that without causing a recession” – Fed Governor Waller (Only an academic would utter this drivel!)

We’re old enough to remember when the Fed, Street shills, and various pols rooted for inflation!
After a moderate retreat, ESMs and stocks commenced the rally for the grand finale to the Weird Wednesday upward manipulation. SPY April call volume surged! The rally peaked at 15:46 ET.

Yellen, who is sounding more and more like Aunt Clara from Bewitched, warned China about their Russia ties while speaking at the Atlantic Council. Janet said the US ‘must work with China to avoid a bipolar financial system’. Yellen: ‘the window to save Planet Earth for our children and grandchildren is close to being permanently shut’. “We must redouble our efforts to decarbonize our economies…” (The Marxist Great Reset first, country second!) https://twitter.com/ArtValley818_/status/1514251144461127685

Does Aunt Clara realize that all lifeforms, including humans, are carbon-based? Isn’t it unseemly for a Treasury Secretary to shill for the radical left? Asking for a friend. After Aunt Clara’s speech, the Dollar Index tumbled from 100.474 (100.523 high) to 99.833 at 12:14 ET. It should’ve rallied on Russia.

@PhilipWegmann: “Yellen doubles down on climate as Rome burns,” one senior Senate aide complains.

@thechrisbuskirk: China builds 40% of the world’s merchant ships. The US builds .1%. In the emerging multipolar world where the US has peer & near-peer adversaries, we can’t maintain US security when we don’t make essential items like ships, chips, and even antibiotics. This must change.
https://hbs.unctad.org/merchant-fleet/

Inconvenient Truth Time!  Gold is +13.31% y/y; Bitcoin is -34.78% y/y, as of 17:00 ET yesterday.

‘Jack Dorsey’s First Tweet’ NFT Went on Sale for $48M. It Ended with a Top Bid of Just $280
Crypto entrepreneur Sina Estavi bought Twitter founder Jack Dorsey’s first-ever tweet as an NFT for $2.9 million last year. He listed the NFT for sale again at $48 million last week..
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/04/13/jack-dorseys-first-tweet-nft-went-on-sale-for-48m-it-ended-with-a-top-bid-of-just-280/

As inflation spikes, NY lawmakers call for antitrust bill to cut down on corporate price gouging
“Would further empower the attorney general to investigate corporate price gouging and allow consumers to sue when corporate monopolies use their market power to unfairly increase prices.”…
https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/ny-legislators-corporate-price-gouging-inflation

China’s imports (in yuan) dropped 1.7% y/y in March: +6.3% was consensus.
Left-leaning The Hill: The Memo: Democrats face nightmare scenario, ‘biblical disaster’
“I think this is going to be a biblical disaster,” said one such Democratic strategist, who did not wish to be named. “This is the reality we are in as Democrats and no one wants to face it.”…
https://thehill.com/news/administration/3265986-the-memo-democrats-face-nightmare-scenario-biblical-disaster/

The latest polls show that European leaders are getting sizable increases in their approval ratings due to Russia’s Ukraine invasion. Astonishingly and tellingly, The Big Guy’s ratings remain putrid.

Biden’s approval falls to new low amid economic pessimism, inflation woes, CNBC survey finds
President Biden’s approval rating slid to a new low of 38%… His approval rating on the economy dropped for a fourth straight survey to just 35%, with 60% disapproving, putting the president a deep 25 points underwater… https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/13/bidens-approval-falls-to-new-low-amid-economic-pessimism-cnbc-survey-finds.html

@varadmehta: New Quinnipiac poll just dropped, and it can only be described as abysmal for Joe Biden. His job approval drops to 33-54 (Adults) and 35-55 (Reg. Voters) compared to 38-53 and 40-54 a week ago. He’s at 26-56 with independent voters… (Joe’s 26% approval with Hispanics is lower than whites!)

Biden Gets Ahead of U.S. Policy Again With ‘Genocide’ Remark
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-gets-ahead-of-us-policy-again-with-genocide-remark/ar-AAWbvm1

State Department suggests Biden ‘genocide’ comment is his opinion and not a ‘legal’ determination
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/state-dept-says-bidens-genocide-comments-based-on-horrific-atrocities-taking-place-in-ukraine

Russia said its Black Sea flagship missile cruiser Moskva was severely damaged by a fire & explosion. If a Ukrainian missile (Neptune) did the deed, it would be a grave military & psychological blow to Russia.

The disturbing misuse of DOJ by the Biden White House continues
Psaki…issued a warning to Republican state legislators in Alabama who passed legislation to prevent chemicals such as puberty blockers or surgeries such as castration and hysterectomy from being administered to prepubescent children…These Republicans, Psaki threatened, have been “put on notice” by the Department of Justice (DOJ) for possible violations of the Constitution and federal law.  You may not have known that the DOJ has this menacing power to put lawmakers “on notice.” It doesn’t. It’s a DOJ swim lane simply made up by the White House; it doesn’t exist… The Justice Department… is not the “Department of Luca Brasi,”…
https://thehill.com/opinion/criminal-justice/3264261-the-disturbing-misuse-of-doj-by-the-biden-white-house-continues/

Today is April options expiration and the day before a 3-day holiday weekend. Today’s action depends almost solely on whether the expiry manipulation was completed on Weird Wednesday. We don’t have a clue; but SPY April option volume should yield the best clue as to stock market direction.

Expected earnings: PNC 2.77, PGR 1.23, UNH 5.35, USB .94, WFC .80, MS 1.70, GS 8.90, C 1.62

ESMs are +3.00, and USMs are -14/32 at 20:55 ET. Trading is oddly tame for the night before expiry.

Expected economic data: March Retail Sales 0.6% m/m, ex-Autos 1.0%, ex-Autos & Gas 0.2%; March Import Prices 2.3% m/m, Export Prices 2.2% m/m; Initial Jobless Claims 170k, Continuing Claims 1.5m; Fed Business Inventories 1.3%; April UM Sentiment 59, Current Conditions 67, Expectations 54, 1-year Inflation 5.5%; NY Fed Pres Williams 8:45 ET; Cleveland Fed Pres Mester 15:50 ET

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4422; 100-day MA: 4526; 150-day MA: 4519; 200-day MA: 4495
DJIA 50-day MA: 34,338; 100-day MA: 34,929; 150-day MA: 35,012; 200-day MA: 35,018

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4153.02 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4547.45 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4535.83 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4457.52 triggers a buy signal

Joe Biden’s dog attacked Secret Service multiple times, memos show
Biden’s dog Major destroyed a coat worth $550, documents show… “And it seems the Secret Service management seemed more concerned about managing press relations than taking care of its agents. In fact, the agency is still withholding information about this mess!”…
https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/bidens-dog-attacked-secret-service-multiple-times-agents-mad-psakis-response

Hate-fueled rants by person of interest in NYC shooting https://t.co/OT3ObWVgu9

Reportedly, Frank James has mental health issues. This is a glaring common factor in most mass shootings. Why is nothing done about it? US mental healthcare is negligent and reprehensible!

The usual suspects will aver that enacting new laws is the remedy for non-enforcement of laws.

@JackPosobiec: So, Frank James was able to post about killing people based on racial animosity for years on FB but people get suspended for posting Fauci memes

@Peoples_Pundit: Nine prior arrests from everything from possession of burglary tools to violent and sexual offenses. That’s just his jacket in New York! He has others in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey. The (NY subway) shooting is a failure of the criminal justice system.

The NYPD, not the FBI, arrested Frank James yesterday on a call to its Crime Stoppers Tip Line.

@BuckSexton: The Democrat media refused to talk about the motive in the Waukesha mass murder at a Christmas parade, and the same thing will happen now with the Brooklyn subway shooting.

@TonyDungy: 2 days ago I spoke on behalf of a Florida bill that supports dads & families and it offended some people. 14 yrs ago Pres Obama said the same things almost verbatim. I’m assuming people were outraged at him too. I am serving the Lord, so I’ll keep supporting dads and families.

Critics target Tony Dungy for comments about fatherhood, forget Obama said same thing
https://cbs12.com/news/local/critics-target-tony-dungy-for-comments-about-fatherhood-forget-obama-said-same-thing

Newt Gingrich blasts McConnell for leading like Pelosi
Former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich, discusses the Republican “tsunami” that is coming in November and slams Mitch McConnell for his “nihilistic” leadership style. Saying, McConnell brings in a 3200 page bill and only he and his staff “gets to figure out what’s going on, that’s not representative government”, stating, “frankly, that’s as bad as Pelosi”.
https://justthenews.com/podcasts/john-solomon-reports/newt-gingrich-blasts-mcconnell-leading-pelosi

Why Gen. Milley’s Ukraine War Prediction Missed by a Mile
Milley forgot the most important military adage of all: “No plan survives contact with the enemy.”…
   Milley’s misjudgment raises two serious concerns. First, where were the comprehensive assessments of Russian military capabilities?… Where is that quality of analysis now?…
    We now have lots of evidence that the Russian military itself is riddled with shortcomings, from inadequate training to poor leadership, corruption, and significant shortfalls in some critical capabilities—particularly secure communications and real-time intelligence, surveillance, and targeting… Our military seems to have lost some of the skills that have made us so formidable…
    Here is the problem. The U.S. military is famous for learning from mistakes and doing better next time. That is not happening. How far have we come since Iraq? We fumbled the ball in the Afghanistan withdrawal. Now, we’re struggling to keep up again. What happens next time, when it’s Taiwan being invaded by China or some other crisis?… Both Afghanistan and Ukraine have shown we have a weak commander-in-chief. Do we have weak senior military leaders to match? https://www.heritage.org/defense/commentary/why-gen-milleys-ukraine-war-prediction-missed-mile

@theblaze: Joy Behar has no idea how the 3 branches of government works, thinks the Supreme Court passes bills: “The Supreme Court is poised to pass a bill contradicting New York City State laws.”
https://twitter.com/theblaze/status/1514314733033332740

Have a reflective and fulfilling Passover, and Easter!

Let us close today with this offering courtesy of Greg Hunter :

to all of Jewish friends out there: a kosher and happy Passover week

and to all a happy Easter weekend

Robert Hryniak	4:24 PM (0 minutes ago)
to