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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,761.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/05/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 07/07/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

661 C JP MORGAN 33
737 C ADVANTAGE 27 1
800 C MAREX SPEC 9 2

TOTAL: 36 36
MONTH TO DATE: 1,013

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan: 33/36

_____________________________________________________________________________________

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR JULY CONTRACT 36 NOTICE(S) FOR 3600 Oz//0.1119 TONNES)

total notices so far: 1013 contracts for 101,300 oz (3.1580 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

621 NOTICE(S) FILED 3,109,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 2513 : for 12,565,000 oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 28.27 TONNES FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1032.04 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 1 CENT

AT THE SLV// ://HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.558 MILLION OZ FROM THE LV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 528.151 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 294 CONTRACTS TO 140,462 AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.55 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.55) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SILVER LONGS//BUT MAINLY WE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR ADDITIONS.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS /. II) WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A POOR INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.220 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 105,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP / // V) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS : -61

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY:

TOTAL CONTACTS for 3 days, total 5162 contracts: 25.810 million oz OR 8.6MILLION OZ PER DAY. (1720 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 8.6 MILLION OZ

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 8.6 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 294 DESPITE OUR $0.55 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 2402 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 15.22 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 105,000 OZ // .. WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 2757 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 13.785 MILLION OZ DESPITE THE STRONG LOSS IN PRICE..

WE HAD 621 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 3,109,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3546 CONTRACTS TO 498,210 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: —765 CONTRACTS.

THE GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $36.55//COMEX GOLD TRADING/TUESDAY / WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR GOOD SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY AT 2.914 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 10,100 OZ

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $36.55 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 12,806 OI CONTRACTS 42.211 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 9260 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 498,210

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,806, WITH 3546 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 9260 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,806 CONTRACTS OR 39.83TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (9260) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (3546,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 12,806 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AND SOME ADDITION TO SPECULATOR SHORTS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY. AT 2.914 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1300 OZ QUEUE JUMP 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS //.,4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :

21381 CONTRACTS OR 2,138,100 OZ OR 65.50 TONNES 3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 7127 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 65.50 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 65.50/3550 x 100% TONNES 1.84% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 2238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 65.50 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 294 CONTRACT OI TO 140,463 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 2402 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 2402 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:2402 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 294 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2402 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 2696 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 13.480 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $0.55 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING// TUESDAY NIGHT

XXX

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 3546 CONTRACTS TO 498,210 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS GOOD COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $36.55 IN GOLD PRICING TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED EFP (9260 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ADDED TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 9260 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 AUG :9260 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 9260 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED TOTAL OF 12,806 CONTRACTS IN THAT 9260 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 3546 CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $36.55.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING JULY (3.3748),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 3.3748 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $36.55) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS//// WE HAVE REGISTERED A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 39.83 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (3.3748 TONNES)…

WE HAD -765 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 13,571 CONTRACTS OR 1,357,100 OZ OR 42,211 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 308,003/// VERY GOOD/RAID/

final gold volumes/yesterday 369,301 /STRONG/RAID

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JULY ’22 COMEX GOLD //JULY 6

Gold

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	797,322 oz Int. Delaware 22 kilobars
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil
No of oz served (contracts) today	36 notice(s) 3600 OZ 0.1119 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	72 contracts 7200 oz 0..2239 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	1013 notices101,300 OZ 3.1508 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

Gold	Ounces

total dealer deposit 0

No dealer withdrawals

0 customer deposits

total deposits: nil oz

1 customer withdrawals:

i) Int. Delaware: 707.322 oz (22 kilobars)

total withdrawal: 707.322 oz

ADJUSTMENTS:3 all dealer to customer

Brinks 38,015.350 oz

JPMorgan 20,249.810 oz

Manfra: 27,498.765 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.

For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 108 contracts losing 138 contracts . We had

209 notices filed on Tuesday so we gained 101 contracts or an additional 10,100 oz will stand in this non active

delivery month of July.

August has a LOSS OF 5761 contracts down to 381,936 contracts

Sept. gained 891 contracts to 1003.

We had 621 notice(s) filed today for 3,109,000 oz FOR THE July 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 36 contract(s) of which 33 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2022. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1013) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (JULY 108 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 36 x 100 oz per contract equals 103,400 OZ OR 3.3748 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of July.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month:

No of notices filed so far (1013) x 100 oz+ (108) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (36} x 100 oz} which equals 103,400 oz standing OR 3.3748 TONNES in this active delivery month of JULY.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 3.3748 TONNES (A FAIR STANDING FOR A JULY ( NON ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o

total pledged gold: 2,419,784.828 oz 75.26 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 32,987.557.415 OZ

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 16,123,043.630 OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 16,864,513.815 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 14,444,729.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)

END

SILVER/COMEX/JULY 6

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	766,272.150 oz Brinks CNT Manfra
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	589,976.7OZ JPMorgan
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)	621CONTRACT(S) 3,105,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	369 contracts (1,845,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	2513 contracts 12,565,000 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: x oz

We have 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 589,976.700 oz

total deposit: 589,976.700 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 172.918 million oz/337.108 million =51.29% of comex

Comex withdrawals: 3

i) Out of Brinks: 614,277.050 oz

ii) out of Int. Delaware 76,995.380 oz

iii) Out of CNT 74,999.720 oz

total withdrawal 766,272.150 oz

adjustments: 1//dealer to customer

JPMorgan: 599,008.500 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 68.732 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 337.108 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JULY OI: 990 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 233. WE HAD 254 NOTICES FILED

ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED 21 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 105,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR METAL AT THE COMEX.

AUGUST LOST 65 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1463

SEPTEMBER HAD A GAIN OF 21 CONTRACTS UP TO 117,527 CONTRACTS.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 621 for 3,109,000 oz

Comex volumes:64,957// est. volume today// fair

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 89,072 contracts ( GOOD )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2513 x 5,000 oz = 12,565,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(990) and the number of notices served upon today 621 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the JULY./2022 contract month: 2513 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JULY (990) – number of notices served upon today (621) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates 14,415,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 1041.90 TONNES

JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $36.55//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.41 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1041.90 TONNES

JULY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1050.31 TONNES

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: big CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1052.63 TONNES//

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.40 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.04 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP 45 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.70 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.77 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 15 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.25: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.60 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONNES

JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $28.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $6.50/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.55: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD UP $21.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.75//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 2/WITH GOLD UP $22.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.20 TONNES

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $1$ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.36 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 1032.31 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JULY 6/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 12.558 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 528.151 MILLION OZ

JULY 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 55 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709MILLION OZ//

JULY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 553,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 540.709 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 738,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 541.262 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.00 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.137 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 739,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./:INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.660 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10.WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 Z FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 923,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.229 MILLION OZ

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.459 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.167 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER DOWN $.34: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITTHDRAWAL OF 246,000 OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.626 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 2/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.261 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS T 553.872 MILLION OZ

JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.538 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.133 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 528.151 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Looking ahead 90 days for gold and silver

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-07-05 22:36Section: Daily Dispatches

By Craig Hemke
Sprott Money, Toronto
Tuesday, July 5, 2022

As Q3 begins, the narrative of higher U.S. interest rates and a soaring dollar continues. But what will the narrative be by the end of Q3?

Answer that question and you’ll know where Comex precious metals prices are headed.

This year has certainly not been much fun for us precious metals enthusiasts. However, as the year began, we all knew that the Federal Reserve was embarking on a schedule of higher interest rates and lessening quantitative easing, so really none of the price action thus far should come as a surprise.

In fact, it has played out pretty closely to what we wrote in our annual forecast back in January. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Looking-Forward-90-Days-Craig-Hemke-July-05-2022

END

Prices don’t drop when inflation eases

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2022-07-05 22:47Section: Daily Dispatches

By Medora Lee
USA Today, McLean, Virginia
via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California
Tuesday, July 5, 2022

When it comes to prices during inflation what goes up doesn’t always come down.

When talking about inflation, it’s important to remember that inflation is a rate that measures how fast prices are rising. If the consumer inflation rate drops from its 40-year high of 8.6% in May, prices are still rising — just not as fast.

Consumers won’t feel immediate relief even as the inflation rate slows because many of those elevated prices are likely here to stay, said Michael Ashton, managing principal at Enduring Investments in Morristown, New Jersey.

“The price level has permanently changed,” Ashton said. “Until your wages catch up, it will continue to hurt.”

And wages have a long way to climb to catch up.

In May inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings decreased a seasonally adjusted 3% from a year ago. When combined with a decrease in weekly hours worked, that resulted in a 3.9% decrease in real wages, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/prices-dont-drop-inflation-eases-090014063.html

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES/COAL

Coal Emerges Victorious As Sanctions And Green Policies Backfire Spectacularly

WEDNESDAY, JUL 06, 2022 – 06:45 AM

When historians look back on this chaotic and turbulent period, they will find that few individuals inflicted as much damage on the environment and promoted the interests of the “dirty fossil fuel” lobby as Greta Tunberg, who by shaming and forcing “serious” politicians to pivot toward green energy at a time when there was nowhere near enough green capacity to replace existing sources of energy, sparked what may be the most spectacular self-own in history. And today, the WSJ, Bloomberg and Reuters all wrote about it.

We start with the WSJ which concedes what was obvious to most long ago (see “Will ESG Trigger Energy Hyperinflation” from last June), namely that “an energy-starved world is turning to coal as natural-gas and oil shortages exacerbated by Russia’s war against Ukraine lead countries back to the dirtiest fossil fuel.”

Yes, contrary to the intentions of Green fanatics everywhere, their push to accelerate away from “dirty” fossil fuel has not only backfired spectacularly, but also exposed the hypocrisy and empty promises of so many virtue-signalers, as “from the U.S. to Europe to China, many of the world’s largest economies are increasing short-term coal purchases to ensure sufficient supplies of electricity, despite prior pledges by many countries to reduce their coal consumption to combat climate change.”

Adding insult to injury, the global competition for coal which is now also in short supply after years of declining investment in new mines and resources, has driven benchmark prices to new records this year. Spot coal prices at Australia’s Newcastle port, a key supplier to Asia, topped $400 a ton for the first time last month.

Hilariously, the push for coal is being led by Europe, ground zero of the “green movement” which finally realized that one can’t burn fake virtue or melt posing in front of camera in the winter to keep warm, and is boosting coal purchases to ensure it can keep power flowing to homes and factories after Russia cut gas supplies to the continent. Germany, which not long ago promised to eliminate coal as a power source by 2030, is among the nations now importing more. Economy Minister Robert Habeck called the increased reliance on coal bitter but necessary. Spoiler alert: Germany will not eliminate coal as a power source by 2030, if anything it will be more reliant on it than ever unless it also restarts its nuclear power plants which it, idiotically, shut down not long ago.

Never one to admit it was dead wrong, however, Europe has a response to everything: “Right now the sentiment is that more coal is better than more Russia,” said Alex Msimang, a London-based partner at law firm Vinson & Elkins LLP specializing in the energy sector.

Whatever dude.

Propaganda bullshit aside, coal is enjoying a renaissance the likes of which it has not seen since the industrial revolution. In addition to soaring coal power use in the US (after the sector was left nearly for dead under Obama), China, the world’s biggest coal consumer, is expanding production of the fuel and its use in power generation, spooked by shortages last year that caused electricity cuts and outages throughout the country, energy experts say.

India is also leaning hard on coal as energy demand increases. The nation’s coal-power generation hit a record in April, said Rahul Tongia, a senior fellow at New Delhi-based think tank the Centre for Social and Economic Progress.

Domestic coal production in China and India helped drive a 10% increase in global investment in 2021, the International Energy Agency reported last month. The IEA projects another 10% increase this year as China and India try to stave off shortages.

Coal miners such as Anglo-Swiss giant Glencore are cashing in. Glencore, one of the last major miners still big in coal, said last month that it now expected $3.2 billion in trading profit in the first half of this year, compared with $3.7 billion for all of 2021.

“We expect elevated coal prices to make Glencore one of the leading shareholder-return companies in the market,” Deutsche Bank AG analysts wrote. The company’s already wealthy shareholders can thank idiots like Greta for becoming even richer.

The best part: the global green lobby is about to be silenced forever.

The resurgence of coal, which emits around double the carbon dioxide as burning natural gas, further threatens to set back international efforts to keep global temperatures under 2 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels, and preferably close to 1.5 degrees, by the end of the century.
That is the goal that more than 190 nations agreed to pursue under the 2015 Paris Agreement to avoid the most dangerous potential consequences of global warming. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that emissions, which continue to rise, would need to be drastically reduced by the end of the decade to meet the goal.

Then again, with the west especially skilled at deluding itself, who’s to say the lies won’t continue. Indeed, as the WSJ notes, climate activists and forecasters say they are concerned about a rise in coal use, but see it as a short-term phenomenon in the West and are more worried that the Ukraine war and other geopolitical events are spurring new natural-gas investments that could operate for decades.

“It can be justified but not for long,” said Bill Hare, chief executive of the Berlin-based group Climate Analytics, of the coal surge.

Oh ok, we are confident that Putin will end his military campaign in Ukraine just to keep a bunch of Scandianvian teenagers happy so they can continue spouting nonsense into masked microphones.

Joking aside, what Putin will do is continue selling Russian coal to Europe – yes, the same Europe that pretends to have imposed sanctions on Moscow – because as Reuters writes, “much of the focus on sanctions on Russia’s commodity exports is on crude oil and natural gas, but coal is perhaps the best example of the challenges facing those seeking to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.”

Russia is the world’s fourth-largest coal exporter behind Australia, Indonesia and South Africa, and has the ability to supply both the Atlantic and Pacific basins.

And yes, while Europe – the main buyer of Russian coal – has proposed a ban on imports it has yet to be even partially implemented, while Japan also plans to end purchases from Russia. Likewise, South Korea has yet to formally sanction imports of Russian energy but is said to be planning for an end to the trade, while China and India, the world’s two biggest coal importers, have no sanctions on Russia and are stepping up imports in order to benefit from steep price discounts, similar to what is taking place in the oil market.

And also similar to oil, where Russian exports have increased since before the war…

… an analysis of Russia’s seaborne exports of coal since the invasion of Ukraine show that it has not only managed to maintain volumes but has actually increased them: while there has been some switching of buyers, the loss of some markets in Europe and Japan has been more than offset by increased buying, especially by India and Turkey.

According to data from Kpler, Russia exported 16.45 million tonnes of coal by sea in June, virtually unchanged from May’s 16.56 million. This level of seaborne exports is an acceleration from the same months in 2021, with June shipments up 3.5% and May up 3.8%. It is also a sharp increase on the three months up to the Feb. 24 attack on Ukraine, when Russia’s seaborne coal exports were 13.43 million tonnes in December, 12.28 million in January and 13.08 million in February.

That said, while Europe has been spouting mostly hot air, Europe’s top buyers of Russian seaborne coal – Germany, the Netherlands and Italy – have started to cut back, with June arrivals at a combined 1.47 million tonnes, down from 2.59 million in May. Yet all that Europe is doing is buying coal from resellers of Russian coal, effectively paying more from the same product. One beneficiary is Turkey. The country which has been supplying Ukraine with military drones, has also ramped up imports of Russian coal, with June arrivals at 1.81 million tonnes, which is the most in any month in Kpler’s records going back to 2017.

Turkey’s imports from Russia were 1.06 million tonnes in May and they have risen every month since February. Much of the excess coal is then resold to Europe at a steep mark up.

Overall, what the coal data shows is that Russia has been able to maintain export volumes, even if it has done so by offering discounts. It also shows that it is difficult to both ramp up imports significantly, even if you want to, with both India and China likely to have hit constraints on securing vessels to buy more Russian coal.

And speaking of supply side constraints, we next go to Blooomberg which writes that the hunt by Europe’s coal consumers to replace Russian cargoes with shipments from across the globe has boosted imports to a key hub by more than a third, helping to fill severely depleted stockpiles.

Coal poured into the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam region — a huge transport hub for energy and commodities — in the first half of this year, with imports surging 35% to 26.9 million tons compared with the same period last year, according to Kpler. That has helped ARA coal inventories double to almost 6.6 million tons from more than a five-year low in the first quarter. Stockpiles are now close to record levels seen in 2019, according to Kpler. On the downside, the flood of imports is contributing to major congestion at the ports.

Shipments are soaring as the region scrambles to replace missing Russian product amid fears of continued declines in Russian nat gas exports – and a freezing winter- said Matthew Boyle, lead analyst for dry bulks, gas and LNG at Kpler Insight. Helping to fill the gap is more coal from the US, Colombia and Australia — countries that tend to produce better-quality or so-called high-calorific value material that releases more heat and energy when burned. Of course, the high quality product is also priced accordingly, and as shown in the chart above, Australian coal just hit a record high price, something which has led to Europe’s record 29.1% PPI.

Australian exporters including Sydney-based Whitehaven Coal have had supply requests from European nations, including Poland, and the firm previously offered 70,000 tons of coal in a government aid package sent to Ukraine. Soaring differentials between European and Australian prices have made it viable for traders to send cargoes from the Asia-Pacific region, even after taking into account the high shipping cost for the longer journey. Some low-quality Indonesian coal has also made its way into Europe, although Kpler said they were likely blended with US material with higher calorific value.

Meanwhile, in the latest slap on the face of environmentalists and petulant Scandinavian teenagers everywhere, the competition for a fuel many want to consign to history is escalating as power generators across Asia and Europe seek to secure additional shipments amid an energy crunch. Germany and Austria are reviving idled coal power plants in response to Russian gas supply curbs, while Japan and South Korea are stockpiling the fuel ahead of hotter summer weather.

And in the latest example of chaos theory butterflies and unintended side-effects, the heavy inflow of coal shipments is exacerbating gridlock at the ports.

“We are seeing very high congestion for the main European ports,” said Abhinav Gupta, a drybulk shipping analyst at Braemar. There were 71 drybulk ships waiting at anchor at the area off Antwerp, Rotterdam and Amsterdam as of June 29, triple the five-year average of 24 ships for this time of the year.

Current waiting time for coal vessels amounts to about 10 days, according to Kpler, who said low river levels on the Rhine also contributed to delays. It expects that will improve to about eight days by mid-July.

Coal terminals are currently at full storage capacity, and transporting large volumes of the fuel inland “has become a challenge over the past few weeks,” the Rotterdam port said. The situation has been complicated by a shortage of barges, it said, as many vessels are tied up with Ukrainian iron ore and grain exports.

In short: total chaos, courtesy of years of catastrophic policies at the behest of the green lobby.

As for the discredited ideologue Greta, fear not: she still has a podium where more than 5 million followers lap up each of her carefully scripted and produced tweets:

It almost makes one wonder: just how much is Putin paying her? Either that, or as Adam Taggart put it…

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES:

END

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.7089

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.7172

HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN AT 266.41 PTS OR 1.22%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 315.82 OR 1.20%

3. Europe stocks CLOSED ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 106.80/Euro FALLS TO 1.0190

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.242/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 135.26/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: UP -// OFF- SHORE DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +1.271%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.35% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 2.38%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.29//

3j Gold at $1762.30 silver at: 19.26 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 1/4 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 62.44

3m oil into the 100 dollar handle for WTI and 107 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 135.26DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9716– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.98983well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.807 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.051 UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.23

Futures Flat As Traders Brace For Latest FOMC Minutes

WEDNESDAY, JUL 06, 2022 – 07:55 AM

After yesterday’s remarkable U-turn in US stocks which tumbled at the open only to recover all losses by EOD (except the energy sector which suffered a furious rout), overnight futures traded subdued, fluctuating between gains and losses ahead of today’s FOMC minutes as traders debate whether the coming recession is good news (more stimulus from the Fed) or bad news (stagflationary, tying the Fed’s hands). S&P futures were down 0.1% last, having traded on both sides of the unchanged line for much of the past 12 hours while Europe’s Stoxx 600 was much more excited and climbed the most since June 24. The two- and 10-year US yield curve remained inverted as investors awaited the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting; the 10-year Treasury yield held steady around 2.81%. The dollar rose for a fourth day as the Euro tumbled while bitcoin traded at $20,000.

In China, Shanghai launched mass testing for Covid in nine districts after detecting cases the past two days, fueling concerns that the financial hub may once again find itself locked down in pursuit of Covid Zero. The Shanghai Composite Index slid the most since May 24.

In thin premarket trading, bank stocks were lower as investors await the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. In corporate news, crypto broker Voyager Digital filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Meanwhile, HSBC is in talks to sell its Russia unit to local lender Expobank, according to people familiar with the matter. Stocks related to cryptocurrencies fell in US premarket trading as Bitcoin fell amid mounting concerns of a global recession. Here are some of the most notable premarket movers:

Kornit (KRNT US) shares plunged 23% in US premarket trading after the inkjet printer manufacturer issued disappointing preliminary second-quarter results. Stifel cut its recommendation to hold from buy.
Chip and chip equipment stocks could be active on Wednesday after Bloomberg reported that the US is pushing the Netherlands to ban ASML from selling some chipmaking tools to China. Watch shares including Applied Materials (AMAT US), Lam Research (LRCX US) and KLA (KLAC US), as well as Nvidia (NVDA US), Qualcomm (QCOM US), Intel (INTC US), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)
Stocks related to cryptocurrencies decline as Bitcoin drop amid mounting concerns of a global recession. Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) -4.2%, Coinbase (COIN US) -3.3%, Ebang (EBON US) -5.5%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) -1.8%, BitNile -5.2% (NILE US)
Shopify (SHOP US) shares slide 0.9% as The Globe and Mail reports, citing people familiar, that the company is delaying a compensation overhaul that would give its employees flexibility on how their salary is paid in stock and cash.
Cazoo (CZOO US) and Carvana (CVNA US) fall as Davy cuts earnings estimates and price targets for online auto stocks, citing inflation, higher interest rates and weakening consumer sentiment as threats to operational execution.
RADA Electronic Industries (RADA US) sinks 11%, after the Israeli defense firm said that it’s withdrawing its full-year 2022 revenue guidance in light of its pending merger with Leonardo DRS.
Watch cybersecurity companies like Palo Alto Networks (PANW US), CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD US) and Okta (OKTA US) as Morgan Stanley analysts said they expect durable security spending environment in the second half of 2022 against an uncertain macro backdrop.

With energy names plunging on expectations of a recession, bargain hunters chased technology stocks boosting US equity indexes on Tuesday, helping mask a deepening slump in stocks linked to economic activity, such as energy, commodity and industrial names. A renewed spike in China’s Covid cases and a worsening gas crisis in Europe signaled that a worldwide slowdown is coming even as central banks tighten monetary policy to contain consumer prices.

“Markets are caught between two opposing forces and that’s the place we are going to be in for the next few months,” Diana Amoa, chief investment officer for long-biased strategies at Kirkoswald Asset Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “We go from trading lower growth to trading high inflation.”

Today’s 2 p.m. release of the June FOMC minutes will provide one of the session highlights.

European stocks gave back over half of their opening gains with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.25% as of 7:30 a.m. ET having added as much as 2.3% in early trade, clawing back roughly half of Tuesday’s sharp losses. CAC 40 and FTSE 100 outperform. Retail, tech and media names are the best performers among broad-based sectoral gains within the Stoxx 600. European semiconductor stocks bounced back on Wednesday, following heavy selling in the past three sessions spurred by concerns over cooling chip demand. ASML shares rise 3.2% as of 9:39am CET, halting a seven-day losing streak, despite news that the US is pushing the Netherlands to stop the chip tool maker from selling deep ultraviolet lithography systems to China. Banks remain the only European industry group in the red on Wednesday, with the Stoxx 600 Bank Index. Here are the most notable European movers:

Just Eat Takeaway shares surge over 20% after the meal delivery firm struck a deal with Amazon for the e-commerce giant to take up to a 15% stake in its US unit Grubhub.
Abrdn shares jump as much as 8.8% after the UK asset management firm said it will commence a return of £300m through the repurchase of its shares, with a first phase of up to £150m being undertaken by Goldman Sachs, according to a filing.
Atos shares climb as much as 8.1% after a filing shows Bank of America holding a 7.77% stake in the French tech services company. Meanwhile, governance remains in focus amid a fresh news report of shareholder unrest.
Airlines rise on Wednesday amid a rebound in the broader European market. Ryanair shares rally as much as 5.1%, EasyJet +4.2%, Wizz Air +4.5%.
Shop Apotheke shares gain as much as 13% after jumping 12% yesterday when the online pharmacy reported preliminary 2Q results. Baader notes that e-scripts will be mandatory in all German states by January 2023, further pushing the company’s sales prospects in the country.
Trainline stock surges as much as 24% as its new FY23 guidance implies a 27% upgrade to consensus, Morgan Stanley writes in note following trading update.
Fresnillo stocks fall as much as 4.2%, while Endeavour rises as much as 4% after Credit Suisse starts coverage of the former with an underperform recommendation and initiates UK-listed shares of the latter at outperform.
TotalEnergies and Engie fall in Paris, underperforming peers, as President Emmanuel Macron comes under increasing pressure to introduce a windfall tax on energy and transport giants to fund his bill aimed at protecting consumer purchasing power.
Adidas shares fall as much as 5.4% after Hauck & Aufhaeuser double downgrades to sell from buy, also setting a Street low price target for the sports-apparel maker, whose FY22 targets are likely at risk due to a 2Q margin squeeze.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks slipped as fears of a global economic recession and fresh Covid-19 outbreaks in China weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.3%, led by energy-related shares as oil traded below $100 per barrel, while investors snapped up defensive shares. Stocks in China declined as Shanghai ramped up mass testing in nine districts after detecting cases the past two days, fueling concerns that the financial hub may once again find itself locked down in pursuit of Covid Zero. The Shanghai Composite Index slid the most since May 24. Benchmarks in the tech-heavy markets of Taiwan and South Korea also dropped. In China, Shanghai launched mass testing for Covid

The fall in Asia shares came despite US stocks recouping most of their losses in a volatile session overnight. Traders are turning their attention to the minutes of the most-recent Federal Reserve meeting, which will be released later today, for a sense of policy makers’ debate about the near-term path for interest rates. Asian equities have been stuck in range-bound trading in recent months as investors weigh higher interest rates and the prospect of an economic downturn driven by elevated inflation. Still, narratives of peak inflation are building up as the Fed ramps up its policy-tightening campaign. It’s “much too early, in our view, to think that inflation trades are over,” Frank Benzimra, head of Asia equity strategy at Societe Generale, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. For emerging-market assets, “you also have some valuation buffer, some levels of yields which are becoming interesting. So this is where we are seeing that we may be close to the peak of pain.” Equity measures in the Philippines and New Zealand bucked the regional trend to each rise more than 1.6%.

Japanese stocks declined as oil tumbled and concerns of a global economic downturn damped sentiment. The Topix Index fell 1.2% to 1,855.97 at the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 declined 1.2% to 26,107.65. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s loss, decreasing 2.8%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 572 rose and 1,520 fell, while 78 were unchanged. “Japanese stocks are seen as representative of the global cyclical economy, so when concerns about recession appear, not only in the US but globally as well, stocks overall are likely to be sold off,” said Yasuhiko Hirakawa, head of an investment department at Rakuten Investment Management. Oil Steadies Above $100 After Plunging on Recession Concerns

Key equity gauges in India rallied as commodity prices eased while a recovery in monsoon rainfall buoyed sentiment. The S&P BSE Sensex Index rose 1.2% to 53,750.97 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 1.1%. Hindustan Unilever was the biggest boost to the Sensex, increasing 4%. Out of 30 shares in the index, 25 rose and five fell. Seventeen of the 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. gained, led by automobile and consumer goods companies. Asia’s biggest software exporter Tata Consultancy Services will kickoff the April-June earnings season for companies on Friday.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.5% to close at 6,594.50, as fears of a global economic recession as well as tumbling commodity prices hit market sentiment. The benchmark was dragged by a group of mining shares that fell to the lowest level since Nov. 2, and energy stocks that fell the most in over two years. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 1.6% to 11,141.07

Fixed income was comparatively quiet. Bunds and USTs bear-steepened as 2y Bunds outperformed. Treasuries are flat in early US trading Wednesday with front end underperforming, pushing 2s10s yield curve into deeper inversion. Yields are mostly lower led by 2-year, at 2.82%; the 10Y yield was trading just south of 2.80% last; 5- to 30-year yields hold increases of less than 2bp after touching lowest levels since late May on Tuesday amid a slump in commodity prices led by oil. 2s10s curve inverted as much as 3.6bp; maximum inversion this year was 9.5bp on April 4, reached as futures markets began to price in bigger Fed rate increases in response to persistently high inflation readings, pushing 2- year yields higher. Latest inversion, by contrast, occurred as 10- year yield declined more than 2-year, with expectations for Fed rate path in broad decline on economic-slowdown concerns. UK Gilts bear-flattened, erasing an initial decline after comments from BOE’s Pill. Peripheral spreads are marginally wider to Germany.

In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index rises 0.2%. JPY is the strongest in G-10, trading near 135.30/USD. EUR sits at the bottom of the scoreboard with EUR/USD trading through Tuesday’s lows.

In commodities, crude futures drift off Asia’s best levels. WTI slips below $100, Brent trades on a $104 handle, with Goldman Sachs arguing that a plunge driven by fears a recession will hurt demand was overdone. Today’s gains were small compared to Brent’s decline of more than $10 on Tuesday, its third largest ever in dollar terms. Investors have been pricing in the consequences of a slowdown even as physical crude markets continue to show signs of vigor and the war in Ukraine drags on. Copper dropped as fears of a global economic slowdown piled pressure on industrial metals.. Spot gold holds a narrow range near $1,765/oz. Base metals are mixed; LME tin falls 1.5% while LME lead gains 1.7%.

Looking to the day ahead now, today’s 2 p.m. release of the June FOMC minutes will provide one of the session highlights. Prior to that, economic data will include the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications release at 7 a.m., the final June Services PMI data at 9:45 a.m. and June’s ISM Services Index and the May JOLTS Job Openings at 10 a.m. Elsewhere on the central bank front, the Riksbank’s Cecilia Skingsley and BOE’s Jon Cunliffe will speak on central bank digital currencies. Fed’s John Williams is scheduled to deliver comments at a virtual event on banking culture at 9 a.m. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll get the minutes from the June FOMC meeting, and also hear from the Fed’s Williams, the ECB’s Rehn and the BoE’s Cunliffe and Pill.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 3,825.75
MXAP down 0.8% to 156.29
MXAPJ down 0.9% to 516.65
Nikkei down 1.2% to 26,107.65
Topix down 1.2% to 1,855.97
Hang Seng Index down 1.2% to 21,586.66
Shanghai Composite down 1.4% to 3,355.35
Sensex up 0.8% to 53,570.29
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 6,594.48
Kospi down 2.1% to 2,292.01
STOXX Europe 600 up 1.4% to 406.26
German 10Y yield little changed at 1.24%
Euro little changed at $1.0259
Brent Futures up 1.3% to $104.15/bbl
Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,769.16
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 106.46

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

With the European economy lurching toward a recession, traders are growing more convinced that the euro breaking parity with the dollar is imminent
“If the fragmentation in bond markets is unwarranted then we should be as unlimited as possible,” European Central Bank Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch tells the Financial Times. “The case to act is strong when faced with unwarranted fragmentation”
German factory orders unexpectedly rose in May, even as global momentum was affected by rampant inflation and uncertainty stoked by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Demand increased 0.1% compared to the previous month, compared to an economist estimate of -0.5%
Britain’s new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Nadhim Zahawi, signaled he wants to cut taxes faster than his predecessor Rishi Sunak, as he set out plans to boost the UK’s struggling economy
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is on red alert for signs of a coordinated plot from his ministers to bring him down, according to a senior government official
China’s central bank looks set to withdraw cash from its financial system in a sign that it’s moving toward normalizing monetary policy as major global peers are forcefully raising interest rates
A combination of the recent bond rebound and the spiraling cost to hedge the volatile yen has wiped out the yield premium a Japanese investor once enjoyed from US debt. The yen-hedged yield on 10-year Treasuries collapsed to 0.24% Tuesday from almost 1.7% in April, just above the 0.22% yield on comparable Japanese debt
Emerging-market currencies are tumbling as the twin threats of rising US interest rates and a global recession send traders scurrying to the safety of the dollar. The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index dropped for a second day, extending this year’s slide to 4.4%, heading for the steepest annual drop since 2015

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pacific stocks were mostly negative with risk appetite sapped by headwinds from the global growth concerns and US recession fears. ASX 200 was marginally lower with energy leading the descent in the commodity-related sectors, although the downside in the index was stemmed by tech strength following the duration-sensitive bias stateside and lower yield environment. Nikkei 225 weakened alongside a firmer currency and with Japan said to delay the call on the start of the nationwide travel support.Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the downbeat mood after the PBoC continued to drain liquidity and with reports noting that US President Biden could lift tariffs on just USD 10bln of Chinese goods, while the US was also said to pressure ASML to stop selling key chipmaking equipment to China. In addition, COVID-19 concerns persisted after China’s Xi’an city entered a 7-day period of ‘temporary control measures’ and with Macau officials locking down the Grand Lisboa hotel and casino due to a cluster of infections.

Top Asian News

PBoC injected CNY 3bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 97bln net drain.
Shanghai suspended the operation of KTV venues due to COVID-19 but other entertainment venues can remain open, while the gradual reopening of cinemas and concert venues will go ahead from July 8th, according to Reuters.
US top diplomat for East Asia Kritenbrink said the top priority for US Secretary of State Blinken’s meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang is to underscore US commitment to diplomacy and maintaining open lines of communication, while he expects Blinken to raise human rights in the meeting with China’s Foreign Minister, according to Reuters.
Two US senators called for the FTC to investigate TikTok after the disclosure about Chinese access to US data, according to Reuters.
Chinese Capital Beijing will resume direct international flights in an orderly way, via Reuters.
‘Bad for EM’: Why Funds Are Furiously Selling Risky Currencies
SenseTime Plunge Raises Stakes for Slew of China Lockups Lifts
Goldman Sachs Sees Kotak Mahindra Bank to Double Market Value
Singapore’s Price for Right to Buy a Car Hits All- Time High

European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.3%, continuing to take impetus from the NDX-led rebound in US hours on Tuesday and shrugging off negative APAC trade. Stateside, futures are mixed/flat at present, but like their European peers have been choppy in overnight ranges awaiting US data and Fed speak; ES -0.1%. Back to Europe, sectors exhibit a pro-cyclical bias that features Tech as the clear outperformer. China’s CPCA says prelim figures show China sold 1.926mln cars in June, +22% Y/Y. Prelim. figures indicate Tesla (TSLA) sold 78k (prev. 32.1k MM) China-made vehicles in June, via Reuters.

Top European News

Latest British Political Drama Proves ‘Sideshow’ for Investors
French Rail Strike Adds to European Summer Travel Havoc
Russia Slams Macron for Breaching Diplomatic Confidentiality
Bulgaria’s Gerb Holds Narrow Lead Over Ruling PP Party: Poll
BOE Chief Economist Says Fighting UK Inflation Is Priority
Italy Five Star Party is leaning on keeping support for PM Draghi, according to ANSA.

Central Banks

ECB’s Wunsch said If the fragmentation in bond markets is unwarranted then we should be as unlimited as possible, via the FT.
BoE’s Cunliffe said we will act to ensure the inflation shock does not become imbedded.
BoE’s Pill says the (BoE) statement re. acting forcefully if necessary reflects both my willingness to adopt a faster pace of tightening than implemented thus far in this tightening cycle & emphasis conditionality on data; Pill will be data-dependant. Much remains to be resolved before we vote on our August policy decision. Adds, that there is a case of steady-handed approach; one-off bold moves can be disturbing to markets.

Dollar dips, but retains firm underlying bid ahead of FOMC minutes, Fed’s Williams and services ISM, DXY holds around 106.500 within 106.760-340 range.
Yen outperforms on technical grounds and with JPY crosses maintaining downward momentum; USD/JPY closer to 135.00 than 136.00, but faces stiff support if breached via recent lows .
Euro remains pressured after largely weak Eurozone construction PMIs and no real compensation from mixed retail sales data, EUR/USD slips to new 20 year low nearer 1.0200.
Pound precarious as more UK Tory Party MPs quit to pile pressure on PM Johnson, Cable back under 1.1950 after brief rebound from low 1.1900 area.
Yuan bucks downbeat mood in EM currencies even though China suffers more outbreaks of Covid-19 as it adopts regional safe haven status; USD/CNH and USD/CNY straddle 6.7100.
Lira lurches again and Forint falls to fresh all time low; USD/TRY tops 17.2550 and EUR/HUF touches 410.50.

Fixed Income

Bulls keep debt afloat after retreat from Tuesday peaks.
Bunds subsequently breach prior session best by a lone tick, at 151.66 before running into supply issues, as new 10 year German benchmark technically uncovered.
Gilts back on 116.00 handle from 115.47 Liffe low and T-note hovers nearer top end of 120-03/119-21 overnight range ahead of Fed’s Williams, US services ISM and FOMC minutes.
UK debt unruffled by more UK Government resignations and BoE rhetoric awaiting PMQs that will put spotlight on under fire Conservative Party leader Johnson.

Commodities

Crude benchmarks are firmer and having been moving with the equity space after yesterday’s significant crude selloff; however, the ‘recovery’ is limited with WTI pivoting USD 100/bbl.
Goldman Sachs said oil has overshot as the global deficit is unresolved and it is premature for oil to drop on recession concerns
OPEC Secretary General Barkindo has passed away, according to Arab News. Note, from an OPEC personnel perspective, Barkindo’s term as the OPEC SecGen was due to end on July 31st, after which the Kuwaiti oil executive Haitham Al Ghais was due to replace him as the new secretary-general
Tengiz field in Kazakhstan continues operations following a blast, according to a source cited by Reuters.
Spot gold is lacklustre after Tuesday’s USD-driven downside; notably, the yellow metal has been fairly resilient to fresh advances in the DXY. While base metals continue to falter, LME copper below 7.5k/T at worst.

US Event Calendar

07:00: July MBA Mortgage Applications -5.4%, prior 0.7%
09:45: June S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 51.6, prior 51.6
10:00: May JOLTs Job Openings, est. 10.9m, prior 11.4m
10:00: June ISM Services Index, est. 54.0, prior 55.9
14:00: June FOMC Meeting Minutes

Central Banks

09:00: Fed’s Williams Makes Remarks at Event on Bank Culture
14:00: June FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s sports day at school today and I’m going to pop in for an hour to watch. However given that my 4yr old twins are the youngest in their year and my daughter is still in a wheelchair I suspect I won’t be building a new trophy cabinet. For those that have asked about Maisie (thanks by the way) she continues to be in great spirits and is exceptional at swimming for her age (6) so she would likely win that if there was such an event. Fingers crossed she’ll be able to get out of the wheelchair in a few months after 8 months so far. The next scan is in 3 weeks and we’ll know if the hip ball has finished collapsing and if it is showing any early sign of regrowing.

As my kids are unlikely to win a prize they’ve asked me to ensure I win some for them to make their tears go away. So if you value our research I would appreciate it if you would vote in the Global Institutional Investor FI survey that opened yesterday. You can see the categories I am up for in this (link here) pdf. There are a number but I’ve listed the priorities. If you could let us know if you voted that would be appreciated unless it is to tell me you voted for one of our competitors!

It’s been another tumultuous 24 hours in markets, with a massive risk-off move reversing late in the US session as the S&P (+0.16%) climbed over 2% after Europe closed. We’ll run through the various headlines in a moment, but there was so much going on here’s a quick highlights reel. We’ve seen the euro decline to a 20-year low against the US Dollar, another round of inversions across the Treasury curve, a mammoth rally in bonds, the tightest financial conditions since the initial wave of the Covid pandemic, a market now pricing in at least two full rate cuts by the Fed in 2023, the German government starting work on bailing out the gas sector, near double-digit percentage drops in oil, and a UK Prime Minister who is getting hit with very high profile cabinet resignations.

Running through the day, investor fears were evident from the get-go, with European markets swiftly giving up their gains after the open to move progressively lower through the day. An important catalyst for that was the latest bad news on the energy side, where an escalation in the Norwegian gas strike we mentioned yesterday means that nearly 60% of the country’s gas exports could have been affected from Saturday according to the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association. However, there were some optimistic signs overnight, as it appears the Norway labour minister intervened to put an end to the strike by summoning both sides to the table, saying “When the conflict can have such great social consequences for the whole of Europe, I have no choice but to intervene in the conflict”.

It goes without saying that this strike would have been coming at a particularly bad time for the European economy, not least with the scheduled maintenance on Nord Stream that’s occurring from July 11-21 and the uncertainty over what happens next. Germany yesterday accelerated legislation that will allow it to rescue energy companies if the need arises with Uniper looking set to be the first to receive state support. Economy Minister Habeck has talked about gas as potentially being a Lehman Brothers moment so the stakes are high.

Indeed this is a heavy cloud hanging over European assets at the moment and they were among the worst global performers yesterday as the prospect of a chaotic gas situation and recession came closer into view. Indeed, the euro itself weakened by a massive -1.50% against the US Dollar yesterday, which was its largest daily decline since March 2020, and left the single currency at its lowest level against the dollar since 2002, closing at just $1.0266. It’s dipped another -0.2% overnight.

Another factor behind the euro’s weakness were growing doubts that the ECB could embark on as aggressive a hiking cycle as initially thought. That expectation of more dovish central banks was present across the world yesterday in light of the recession fears, but it was particularly prevalent in Europe, where the rate priced in by the June 2023 meeting came down by -11.4bps by the close of trade. It was a similar story in the US where the rate priced in by June 2023 came down by -11.4bps, but what’s becoming increasingly apparent is that investors are now expecting that the Fed will shift towards easing policy by mid-2023, with at least a full 25bp cut now priced in between the February and July meetings in 2023, as well as a further one by year-end.

Those fears of a recession were manifesting themselves in other asset classes too, with commodities more broadly (European natural gas excepted) having an awful day as the resiliency of global demand was brought into question. For instance, Brent crude oil prices (-9.45%) witnessed their largest daily move lower since March, taking prices down to their lowest level since early May at $102.77/bbl while WTI (-8.24%) broke beneath $100/bbl for the first time since April. The traditional industrial bellwether of copper was another victim of this trend, plummeting by another -5.36% yesterday to a 19-month low of its own, whilst wheat futures (-4.61%) are now trading beneath their levels prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In Asia, oil futures have pared bigger bounce back gains but are still trading slightly higher with Brent futures +1.05% and WTI futures (+0.72%) just above the $100/bbl level again.

Given the rising doubts about future rate hikes and the weakening inflationary pressures from key commodities, sovereign bonds put in a strong performance as they also benefited from their usual appeal as a haven asset. Yields on 10yr Treasuries came down by -7.5bps to 2.81%, and the 10yr breakeven fell -6.2bps to 2.30%, which takes it to a level unseen since September 2021, back before the Fed had even begun to taper their asset purchases. The declines in yields were concentrated at longer maturities, with the 2s10s curve flattening by -6.2bps to -1.9bps, closing inverted for the first time in nearly a month. And speaking of inversions, another milestone was reached yesterday as the 2s5s curve inverted for the first time this cycle in trading, closing -5.0bps lower at -0.9bps. That picture was echoed over in Europe as well, where yields on 10yr bunds (-15.6bps), OATs (-13.8bps) and BTPs (-9.1bps) all moved lower on the day. This morning yields on 10yr USTs (+2.37 bps) are edging higher as I type.

For equities, the layer upon layer of bad news resulted in another significant selloff until the Euro close, with the STOXX 600 shedding -2.11%. However the rate rally supported a steady tech-led march higher in the US after opening very weak and trading more than -2% lower. The S&P 500 finished +0.16% higher and the NASDAQ was up +1.75% on the day. Energy stocks led the moves lower on both sides of the Atlantic, and the index-level gains in the US were supported by a narrow subset of large cap stocks sensitive to lower rates, with only 3 S&P sectors – tech, discretionary, communications – in the green, and a massive 667bps differential between the best performing sector (communications +2.66%) and worst (energy -4.01%). Indeed, the even more concentrated mega-cap FANG+ outperformed the rest of the complex, gaining +3.01%. In line with the late US divergence, it was a tale of two credit markets, with HY credit spreads widening in Europe with the iTraxx crossover +27.4bps to 616bps, a level not seen since early April 2020 at the height of the initial lockdowns, while US HY CDX spreads tightened -11.8bps to 565bps after trading as high as 592bps intra-day.

On the UK political scene, Prime Minister Johnson’s position is under significant pressure at the minute with two high profile resignations in his cabinet after yet more conduct issues were raised about the PM’s leadership. Johnson has indicated he plans to stay on and has appointed replacements for the outgoing ministers, but his position looks increasingly perilous given the lack of party support. The pound was -1.41% lower versus the US dollar, but most of the decline took place before the news of the resignations and the pound was actually in the middle of the pack for G10 currency performance on the day, with the broader risk environment proving more perilous. If the PM can stay on he will likely pivot towards easier fiscal policy now the Chancellor has resigned. However it’s tough to price that in as it’s not clear whether the PM can survive this episode.

Asian equity markets are lagging this morning even with the late US rally. Across the region, the Hang Seng (-1.56%) is the largest underperformer followed by the Kospi (-1.33%) and the Nikkei (-1.26%) in early trade. Markets in mainland China are also sliding with the Shanghai Composite (-1.20%) and CSI (-1.23%) trading in negative territory dragged down by worries about new COVID-19 cases in Shanghai risking fresh restrictions.

Moving ahead, stock futures in the DMs indicate a mixed start with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.12%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.10%) edging lower albeit with DAX futures bouncing +1.35% after that late US rally.

Moving to Covid news, Shanghai reported 24 infections yesterday, its most in three weeks although the overall case load remains small by global standards. To avert a wider spread and huge disruptions, Shanghai’s municipal government said in a statement that there’d be mass PCR testing in 9 districts and partial areas in another 3 districts, with residents required to take 2 tests within 3 days. The measures follow a reported outbreak, which has driven anxiety that the financial capital will be closed back down after just emerging from a two-month long lockdown.

On the data side, US factory orders expanded by a stronger-than-expected +1.6% in May (vs. +0.5% expected), whilst the previous month’s growth was revised up four-tenths to +0.7%. Over in Europe, the final composite PMI for the Euro Area in June was revised up from the flash reading to 52 (vs. flash 51.9).

To the day ahead now, and data releases from Europe include German factory orders for May, the German and UK construction PMIs for June, and Euro Area retail sales for May. Over in the US, there’s also the final services and composite PMIs for June, the ISM services index for June, and the JOLTS job openings for May. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll get the minutes from the June FOMC meeting, and also hear from the Fed’s Williams, the ECB’s Rehn and the BoE’s Cunliffe and Pill.

TUESDAY /MONDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 48.67 PTS OR 1.43% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 266.41 OR 1.22% /The Nikkei closed DOWN 315.82 OR % 1.20 //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .50% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.7089 /Oil DOWN TO 100.13 dollars per barrel for WTI and DOWN TO 104.26 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN // ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.7089 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7172: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA vs WEST

China Slams US For “Technological Terrorism” As Chipmaking Gear Curbs Expand

WEDNESDAY, JUL 06, 2022 – 09:52 AM

As Washington and Beijing move towards technological decoupling, semiconductor chips and equipment have become the center point of national security efforts. The US has placed export controls against Chinese technology firms from purchasing chips and equipment. Now Washington is pushing the Netherlands to ban one of its top chipmakers from selling semiconductor equipment to Chinese companies.

Bloomberg first reported Washington’s recommendation to Dutch chip equipment maker ASML Holding NV to halt selling some of its older deep ultraviolet lithography, or DUV, systems. Even though these machines are one generation behind cutting-edge, they can still make high-tech chips for automobiles and consumer electronics.

Responding to the Bloomberg report, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian criticized Washington on Wednesday for “technological terrorism” as both countries are locked in a chip race.

“This is yet another example of the US practice of coercive diplomacy by abusing state power and wielding technological hegemony. It is classic technological terrorism … This will only remind all countries of the risks of technology dependence on the US and prompt them to become independent and self-reliant at a faster pace,” Zhao told a regular news briefing Wednesday in Beijing.

If the Netherlands agrees, it will significantly increase the type of chipmaking equipment now prohibited for export to China.

Washington has also pressured Japan to stop shipping semiconductor machines to China.

Meanwhile, the writing was on the wall. Amir Anvarzadeh of Asymmetric Advisors said, “Chinese chipmakers have been hoarding second-hand equipment since the Trump era.”

Anvarzadeh said banning the most advanced machines was “clearly not enough to halt China’s advancement in semiconductors, especially since much of the chips used for defense purposes are using geometries that were far less advanced.”

Since the Trump-era tariffs on consumer goods and export curbs on semiconductor chips and equipment for Chinese firms — China has been the biggest buyer of chipmaking gear in the last two years.

The move by Trump to begin the curbs has been continued under the Biden administration, showing a much larger issue of America’s survival and worry about China catching up in the chip race.

Wall Street analysts responding to the Bloomberg report say a complete ban preventing ASML from exporting semiconductor equipment, such as deep ultraviolet lithography systems, is unlikely. Here are the thoughts of several analysts (list courtesy of Bloomberg):

Evercore ISI analyst C.J. Muse (outperform) says the most likely outcome is continued restrictions on extreme ultraviolet lithography technology, but a full ban of ASML’s DUV portfolio may not materialize

Notes that ASML has paused shipments of its latest immersion tool NXT:2050i to China
ASML and the Netherlands will push back on bans of tools that are readily available from competitors
Thinks the Biden administration is looking to collaborate on a joint agreement with China

Citi analyst Atif Malik says more focused restrictions, such as curbing sales of US tech to SMIC, more likely than a broad-based ban

Views a full chip equipment ban as more directly linked to potential foreign policy escalations
Still, in a separate note, analyst Amit Harchandani (buy) says there could be more export control scrutiny around shipment to local Chinese chipmakers

Degroof analyst Michael Roeg (buy) says the discussion is not new, “yet it can easily scare investors”

There should be no impact on ASML and other chip tool makers in the short term “as there is no ban, and perhaps it will not come at all”
ASML could even see a short-term boost in demand as Chinese customers could be tempted to hoard DUV immersion equipment

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Masahiro Wakasugi and Brian Moran say ASML’s sales could fall by 5% to 10% if it’s banned from selling deep ultraviolet tools in China

If ASML halts semiconductor equipment exports to China on behalf of Washington, the US must be prepared to accept the consequences.

end

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

END

Holland

More on those Dutch protests as farmers block food distribution centers.
(zerohedge)

Dutch Farmers Block Food Distribution Centers; Undercover Cops Chased Away From Protest

TUESDAY, JUL 05, 2022 – 05:20 PM

Dutch farmers who are livid over government plans to cut nitrogen emissions by 50% – 95% have now taken to blocking food distribution centers in protest of the plan, which would shutter an estimated one-third of farms in the Netherlands.

Some 25 tractors parked outside a distribution center in the city of Zaandam, just north of Amsterdam, donning banners which read “Our farmers, our future” and other slogans, according to the Fresh Fruit Portal.

Fisherman in the country have also begun blocking ports in solidarity with the farmers.

A tractor at another protest, in the northern town of Drachten, urged people to “think for a moment about what you want to eat without farmers.”
The strike has sparked fears of supermarket food shortages, as fishermen have also blocked a number of harbors in an act of solidarity.
“Supermarkets do everything they can to keep the stores stocked, but if blockades continue, it could lead to people not being able to do their daily shopping,” the Central Bureau for Food Trade said in a statement.
In addition, traffic authorities warned of delays and possible slow-moving tractors on the nation’s highways, while Schiphol Airport urged travelers to use public transport to get to its terminals amid fears that the blockades also would target airports. -Fresh Fruit Portal

The upcoming reforms are expected to include a reduction in livestock, as well as buying up farms whose animals produce large volumes of ammonia.

Meanwhile, undercover cops were reportedly ousted from a protest over the weekend.

Earlier in the weekend, farmers poured mature on government offices in protest.

In short, don’t fuck with farmers.

end

HOLLAND

The Dutch Farmers’ Protest & The War On Food

WEDNESDAY, JUL 06, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

This week, tens of thousands of farmers have gathered from all across the Netherlands to protest government policies which will reduce the number of livestock in the country by up to a third.

In a typical example of media weasel-wording, the press reports on this all headline something like “Dutch farmers protest emissions targets”, but this is a massive lie by omission.

The government policy being protested is a 25 BILLION Euro investment in “reducing levels of nitrogen pollution” true, but it plans to achieve this by (among other things) “paying some Dutch livestock farmers to relocate or exit the industry”.

In real terms, this ultimately means reducing the number of pigs, chickens and cows by about thirty per cent.

That’s what is being protested here – a deliberately shrinking of the farming sector, impacting the livelihood of thousands of farmers, and the food supply of literally hundreds of millions of people.

THE BIG PICTURE

While the scheme is allegedly about limiting nitrogen and ammonia emissions from urine and manure it’s hard not to see this in the broader context of the ongoing created food crisis.

The Netherlands produces a massive food surplus and is one of the largest exporters of meat in the world and THE largest in Europe. Reducing its output by a third could have huge implications for the global food supply, especially in Western Europe.

Perhaps more troubling is how this could act as a precedent.

This isn’t the first “pay farmers not to farm” scheme launched in the last year – both the UK and US have put such schemes in place – but a government paying to reduce it’s own meat production? That is a first.

That it is (allegedly) being done to “protect the environment” makes it a big warning sign for the future. Denmark, Belgium and Germany are already considering similar policies.

The Western world seems to be enthusiastically embracing quasi-suicidal policies.

I mean, paying farmers to reduce the amount of food they produce…while (notionally) threatened with war…in the midst of a recession…facing record inflation as the cost of living spirals.

Does that really make any sense?

That’s almost as crazy as refusing new oil and gas leases while the cost of petrol is going up.

Indeed, in a world beset by a shortage of fertiliser due to sanctions against Russia and Belarus, it would seem almost mad to complain about a manure surplus, let alone try to reduce it.

We’re well past the point where any of this could be considered accidental, aren’t we?

Put it this way – if the collective governments of the Western world were trying to impoverish and starve their own citizens, what exactly would they be doing differently?

END

ITALY

The heatwave is causing the drought stricken north into major problems

(zerohedge)

State Of Emergency Declared In Italy’s Drought-Stricken North

WEDNESDAY, JUL 06, 2022 – 04:15 AM

The Italian government declared a state of emergency in five northern regions because of a dangerous heatwave and drought — that are taking a toll on agriculture and threatening power supplies, according to Reuters.

The emergency was declared on Monday and will remain in effect until the end of the year and give local authorities the tools to take immediate action, such as imposing water rationing on homes and businesses.

So far, 36.5 million euros ($38.1 million) have been earmarked for northern regions, such as Emilia-Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lombardy, Piedmont, and Veneto, to tackle the water shortage.

“The state of emergency is aimed at managing the current situation with extraordinary means and powers, with relief and assistance to the affected population,” the government said.

Bloomberg’s two-week max temperature forecasts show the heatwave could worsen.

High temperatures and arid conditions have brought the water levels of Po, Italy’s longest river, which runs for more than 650 km (400 miles) through the northern region, to lows not seen in seven decades. Po provides critical water supplies to vast amounts of farmland — the drought threatens about 30% of Italy’s agricultural produce and could lead to seasonal harvest declines for barley, grain, and rice.

The extreme conditions have led to a 50% decline in hydroelectric power, which feeds about 15% of the country’s power needs. Less hydroelectric power will strain the grid and put more pressure on fossil fuel power generation amid an ongoing energy crisis.

END

Supply chain chaos continues to wreak havoc in European auto stocks

(zerohedge)

Supply Chain Chaos Continues Wreaking Havoc in European Auto Stocks

WEDNESDAY, JUL 06, 2022 – 05:45 AM

More than two years after the beginning of Covid, the auto industry remains in chaos…

Today, the focus is on European auto stocks, which are going to be on watch heading into the new week after automakers had their worst June sales “in decades”, according to a Monday morning wrap up by Bloomberg.

Names like Faurecia, Volvo Car and Michelin were down between 2% and 6% to start the week after ugly June sales data for the UK and German new car registrations falling off a cliff.

The UK saw its weakest June since 1996, Auto Express reported Monday. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders is still attributing the sales drop to the “ongoing global shortage of semiconductors” mixed with China’s implementation of severe Covid restrictions.

EVs, however, saw a 14.6% increase in sales and have seen their market share rise from 10.7% in June 2021 to 16.1% in June 2022.

“The semiconductor shortage is stifling the new car market even more than last year’s lockdown. Electric vehicle demand continues to be the one bright spot, as more electric cars than ever take to the road, but while this growth is welcome it is not yet enough to offset weak overall volumes, which has huge implications for fleet renewal and our ability to meet overall carbon reduction targets,” said Mike Hawes, chief executive of the SMMT.

He continued: “With motorists facing rising fuel costs, however, the switch to an electric car makes ever more sense and the industry is working hard to improve supply and prioritize deliveries of these new technologies given the savings they can afford drivers.”

And the chaos shows no immediate signs of letting up. As Bloomberg notes, Volvo has already warned that China shutdowns will have a negative impact on its third quarter sales.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

RUSSIA/ISRAEL

Russia Demands Israel Cease Its ‘Air Aggression’ Against Syria

TUESDAY, JUL 05, 2022 – 06:40 PM

Israel carried out yet another strike on the Syrian coast this weekend, which reportedly wounded two civilians. Russia has been getting more forceful in its denunciations of these strikes which have occurred on an almost weekly basis across various parts of Syria, especially around Damascus over the past few years.

Russia on Monday condemned the latest and other recent attacks as “categorically unacceptable” and demanded they cease immediately. During the early years of Israeli attacks which almost always claimed to be targeting “Iranian assets”, Russia remained relatively quiet. Israeli missile strike near Damascus, Syria, October 30, 2021.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said, “We strongly condemn such irresponsible actions that violate the sovereignty of Syria and the basic norms of international law, and we demand their unconditional cessation.” Also, the Syrian government denounced what it called Israel’s “air aggression”.

Despite literally hundreds of such strikes, Israeli media reports acknowledged Saturday’s attack as rare:

The relatively rare daytime strike on Saturday targeted an area near the Syrian town of al-Hamidiyah, south of Tartus, which is home to Russia’s main naval base in the region. Two civilians were injured and serious damage was caused to civilian infrastructure, Moscow said.

Syrian state sources say that “poultry farms” were targeted in the attack; however, both Israeli and Syrian opposition sources claim that a weapons shipment en route to Hezbollah in Lebanon was hit.

“Quoting a military source, Syria’s state-run SANA news agency said the missiles were launched Saturday by Israeli fighter jets over the Mediterranean Sea, west of the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli, at the Syrian town of al-Hamidiyah, south of Tartus,” The Times of Israel describes.

“While most alleged Israeli attacks in Syria typically take place under the cover of darkness, Saturday’s alleged strike was conducted at around 6:30 a.m., during daylight hours.”

While Russia has supplied Syria with anti-air systems and missiles, and has also had a robust military presence in Syria to defend the Assad government since its 2015 military intervention at the invitation of Damascus, it has never acted against Israeli airstrikes.

Israel for its part, has tried to stay somewhat on the sidelines of the Ukraine war, refusing to send military hardware of much significance despite the urging of Washington. Very likely, Israel fears that arming Ukrainians in any major way would embolden Russia in Syria to act against Israeli warplanes.

GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

San Diego Loses 22% Of Its Police Force Due To Vax Mandates

WEDNESDAY, JUL 06, 2022 – 08:30 AM

San Diego is witnessing the largest exodus of police officers from the city since 2009 and the majority of them are quitting because of the city’s continued obsession with covid vaccine mandates.

Perhaps the smartest move the people of Los Angeles County ever made was to elect Sheriff Alex Villanueva, who refused to enforce unconstitutional vax mandates. The decision probably saved them from losing a quarter or more of their law enforcement officers within the sheriff’s department.

Contrast this with the LAPD, which was not so lucky. Officers have quit in droves or were fired, with over 2200 employees refusing to comply. This has been a repeating situation across California, and San Diego is the latest region to suffer considerable losses of LEO’s over vax mandates.

More than 230 San Diego police officers have left city employment in the 2022 fiscal year alone (252 sworn deputies in 2021), totaling around 22% of all deputies in active service.

City officials are scrambling to increase incentives to lure new officers into the ranks, including the approval of a 10% pay raise, but many within the department were well aware that this outcome was looming. Officials now say replacing deputies as fast as they exit will be impossible.

Jared Wilson, president of the San Diego Police Officers Assn., says that the covid mandates were the breaking point for many deputies. This is not at all surprising. The aggressive nature of California’s enforcement of covid vaccines is rather bizarre given that most of the rest of the country has moved on and abandoned mandates altogether. California’s political inclinations are dominated by Democrats and the left, and it seems that once they decide they want something they aren’t going to stop until they get it, no matter how unnecessary.

This attitude once again shows that such mandates are more about control than about public health or safety, given they are costing major CA cities a large percentage of their police force at a time when homicide rates are rising by 17% and property crime rose by 7% overall, climbing to pre-pandemic levels after lockdowns kept the public indoors in 2020 and most of 2021.

Economic declines within the state are likely to lead to even more criminal activity and city residents are starting to question the anti-police rhetoric of many far-left representatives. There have already been major political upsets, with a progressive district attorney recalled in San Francisco and a former Republican candidate elected for Mayor in LA. It would seem that crime, rather than covid, is now at the top of the worry list of the average Californian, but sitting leaders still don’t seem to get it.

END

Dr Paul Alexander….

DOpen in browser

oh oh, seems in Austria, the minister of health is blaming doctors for the COVID vaccine harms, shifting blame to them; yet Rauch knows if doctors did in Austria and US etc. tell truth, will be fired

Now that harms & deaths due to the COVID shot are clear, the rush is to blame doctors for not informing their patients. Doctors must now for the first time, band together & take govns down!

Dr. Paul AlexanderJul 6

Austrian Minister of Health Confirms – Doctors Are Responsible for Vaccine Damage

Tell the truth now, you doctors, let us bring down all these governments!

“Doctors would have to provide sufficient information about the benefits and risks of the treatment in advance so that the person concerned can make an informed and free decision . The consequences for the doctors are also mentioned in the response: ” The function of the information is to protect the freedom of decision of the person concerned. ” of medical professional duties . This can be punished under administrative and/or disciplinary law as well as have consequences under liability law.”

SOURCE:

Austria

SOURCE:

Austrian Minister of Health Confirms – Doctors Are Responsible for Vaccine Damage

end

Dr Paul Alexander….

Vaccinated persons have greater mortality than the unvaccinated in New Zealand: “The Rollout of COVID-19 Booster Vaccines is Associated With Rising Excess Mortality in New Zealand”

sssshhhhh, we will keep that quiet for now, don’t want to offend my family and friends and neighbors who have shots sticking out their ears and eye balls and want more…more I plead, may attack me

Jul 6

end

Dr Paul Alexander…

Dowell et al.: “Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive spike-specific immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection”; children retained antibody & cellular responses, as it waned in adults

Key finding: Children generate robust, cross-reactive and sustained immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 with focused specificity for the spike protein.

Dr. Paul Alexander
Jul 6

This important study has been overlooked and sidelined for the findings do not fit the narrative. It is one additional win for natural immunity. Helps us understand why children, healthy children must not be touched with these COVID injections. They do not need them but importantly, the injection can damage their functional innate immune system and render it helpless and children then vulnerable to a broad range of pathogen.

SOURCE:

Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive spike-specific immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection

“SARS-CoV-2 infection is generally mild or asymptomatic in children but a biological basis for this outcome is unclear. Here we compare antibody and cellular immunity in children (aged 3–11 years) and adults. Antibody responses against spike protein were high in children and seroconversion boosted responses against seasonal Beta-coronaviruses through cross-recognition of the S2 domain. Neutralization of viral variants was comparable between children and adults. Spike-specific T cell responses were more than twice as high in children and were also detected in many seronegative children, indicating pre-existing cross-reactive responses to seasonal coronaviruses. Importantly, children retained antibody and cellular responses 6 months after infection, whereas relative waning occurred in adults. Spike-specific responses were also broadly stable beyond 12 months. Therefore, children generate robust, cross-reactive and sustained immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 with focused specificity for the spike protein. These findings provide insight into the relative clinical protection that occurs in most children and might help to guide the design of pediatric vaccination regimens.”

end

GLOBAL INFLATION/SUPPLY ISSUES

GLOBE//SUPPLY PROBLEMS

END

VACCINE INJURY/

Vaccine Impact

MICHAEL EVERY

Michael Every on the day’s most important topics

And now Michael Every…

Rabobank: What About Deflation?

WEDNESDAY, JUL 06, 2022 – 09:30 AM

By Elwin de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy at Rabobank

When we invoked Mundell & Fleming’s “Unholy Trinity” of i) independent monetary policy, ii) a fixed (stable) exchange rate and iii) the free movement of capital in yesterday’s Global Daily, we couldn’t have been timed better. Although we actually applied the type of reasoning to the ECB’s aims of setting rates (and spreads), controlling the amount of base money and trying to prevent fragmentation at the same time, it was the original Mundell-Fleming type that put its mark on markets yesterday.

Of course we are talking about the EURUSD exchange rate which fell straight through the 1.035 ‘technical barrier’ (a previous low set late 2016, early 2017) all the way to a 20-year low of 1.0240, leading to speculation among market participants that parity is now “within reach”.

The reason behind the currency’s weakness is the growing doubt in the market that the ECB may be able to push through a series of rate hikes –which, as a reminder, it has yet to start– before any recession kicks in. The yield on 2-year German Schätze fell more than 15bp to 0.43%. Our FX strategist, Jane Foley, notes that while we have been warning of recession risks in the Eurozone for some time, broader market concerns surrounding from energy security in Europe have been hitting home in recent sessions. This in turn is focusing attention on Eurozone fragmentation risks and the tricky policy position of the ECB, all of which is EUR negative.

And what about deflation? That’s a surprising question I got from a Dutch client last week and it even caught me off-guard. But they were right, it’s not a scenario to be entirely dismissed for 2023. Newton’s Third Law of Motion, which states that when one body exerts a force on another body, the second body exerts a force on the first body that is equal in magnitude but opposite in direction, often can be applied to economies and markets as well. This is not to say that this means things are predictable (far from it!), but it does remind us of the possibility that what goes up, can also come down.

So is ‘demand destruction’ now at work? Well, perhaps were seeing the first signs of it. Although headline PMI surveys in Europe are still “above 50”, forward-looking indicators such as order-intake and export orders in industry have fallen below that threshold in recent months. In any case, many commodity prices are seemingly experiencing Newton’s law of gravitation. Brent oil fell below $105 a barrel (end-June it was still trading at EUR 120), base metal prices (notably copper) are sliding and even agri commodities have fallen quite sharply over the last several weeks. For the latter, a case in point is palm oil, which is down 40% since its intraday record set in May. The reason: Indonesia raised its export quotas in order to get rid of excess stockpiles – which themselves are the result of its temporary export ban in April-May. Talking about action-reaction.

Of all major base metals and agri-commodities including, believe it or not, wheat and softs such as sugar and cotton, there is only one commodity whose (nearest-term future) price is still above the levels recorded just before war in the Ukraine broke out: iron ore. It is therefore no surprise that Bloomberg’s broad commodity price index has now fallen all the way back to 112.4 (it stood at 113.5 on 22 February), after having reached 136.6 on 9 June. In other words, in less than a month, all commodity price gains since the Ukraine war have been wiped out.

The last big ‘hold-out’ in that respect is European energy. The 1-m forward benchmark contract for European gas briefly jumped above $170 yesterday, which is the highest level since 8 March. A strike by Norwegian offshore workers that started Monday and broadened Tuesday was arguably the immediate cause for the jump in gas prices, but this comes against the backdrop of fears that Russian supply through Nordstream-1 may not come back on after maintenance work on the pipeline has been finished later this month. Norway is the UK’s largest gas supplier and is now also responsible for around 25 percent of European mainland’s gas, second after Russia, the FT reports. The positive news this morning, though, is that the Norwegian government has intervened in the industrial conflict (it has the power to do so under certain conditions), proposing ‘compulsory wage arbitration’ between the Lederne union representing the sector’s workers and employers. How much is securing the supply of a crucial input to everyone involved worth? I guess that is a question that will be asked a lot more in what looks like already being a hot European summer.

Meanwhile, UK PM Johnson may also be sweating – not just because of the summer heat. Although he has been under fire for months, Johnson still enjoyed the support of his cabinet members for a long time. This support is now crumbling. Last night, Health Minister Javid and Finance Minister Sunak resigned almost simultaneously out of dissatisfaction with his leadership. Replacements were immediately appointed in the persons of Barclay and Zahawi, but given the ongoing unrest, the question is how long they can enjoy their new office. It could mean that the government will come up with popular measures, such as another tax cut, in an effort to regain the confidence of voters and party members. Remarkably, traders in the British pound showed little sympathy for Prime Minister Johnson last night. There was no price reaction and EUR/GBP is now trading just below 0.86. This suggests that the British economy might be better off with a new prime minister.

7. OILOIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Are US Gasoline Refiners Running Out Of Steam?

WEDNESDAY, JUL 06, 2022 – 10:45 AM

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

As petroleum stocks dwindle and demand soars, refining margins are skyrocketing.
U.S. refiners have been operating at full tilt in recent weeks to keep up with demand.
There is a growing concern that refiners may not have much room to safely increase capacity.

U.S. refineries have been operating at or near maximum utilization levels in recent weeks as demand recovers. Petroleum stocks are sitting at multi-year lows, and refining margins are sky-high. Refinery utilization at 95% is at its highest since before COVID—September 2019. Yet, refiners don’t have much room to safely raise capacity usage further, while the summer season with heat waves and hurricanes could suddenly take some capacity off the market, further straining gasoline supply and putting upward pressure on gasoline prices.

Refiners are running crude processing at full tilt. They are responding to U.S. President Joe Biden’s continuous pestering to produce more gasoline and lower prices at the pump, immediately, saying that there isn’t much spare capacity left to boost utilization rates without compromising safe operations. Analysts are of the same opinion, too.

More Relief At The Pump On The Way?

A recent drop in international crude oil prices, which saw in June their first monthly drop since November 2021, coupled with lower gasoline demand and growing stocks in the past two weeks, have helped the average U.S. gasoline price ease back to below $5 a gallon, at $4.807 on July 4, down from a record-high of $5.016 on June 14.

“Gas demand currently sits at 8.93 million b/d, which is lower than last year’s rate of 9.11 million b/d at the end of June. On the other hand, total domestic gasoline stocks increased by 2.6 million bbl to 221.6 million bbl. These supply/demand dynamics and decreasing oil prices have pushed pump prices lower. As these trends continue, drivers will likely continue to see relief at the pump,” AAA said last week, just before the July 4 holiday weekend.

The trend of high gasoline production is set to continue in the near future as refiners run at full tilt to take advantage of the high refining margins. The crack spreads are well above historical averages due to low inventories both in the U.S. and globally, fuel demand rising to near pre-pandemic levels, and lower product exports from Russia, the Energy Information Administration said last month. The EIA expects America’s refinery utilization to reach a monthly average level of 96% twice this summer, “near the upper limits of what refiners can consistently maintain.”

In its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the administration forecast that U.S. refinery utilization would be relatively high this summer in response to strong wholesale prices for petroleum products. These petroleum product prices have increased more than the price of the crude oil used to make them.

In the week of June 24, the average U.S. refinery utilization rate stood at 95%, with the East Coast and Gulf Coast rates at 98%, per EIA’s latest weekly report. It should also be noted that operable capacity across America’s refineries is now 17.944 million bpd, down by 1 million bpd compared to 18.976 million bpd two years ago. Several refineries have either shut down or started preparations to produce biofuels since the pandemic crashed fuel demand and posed uncertainty about the long-term business case for refiners.

Risk Of Unexpected Outages Are Higher At Top Utilization Levels

But as refiner run rates rise, the risk of sudden outages also grows, analysts say.

“Running hard increases general stress on a unit, increasing the risk of an unplanned outage,” Robert Campbell, head of oil products research at consultancy Energy Aspects, told Bloomberg last week.

Testing the upper limits of refinery utilization could wear down processing units faster and requires more cooling of the equipment, especially in hot weather, according to Campbell.

A sudden outage at a refinery this summer could exacerbate the fuel crunch as it would lower already low inventories.

Then there is the Atlantic hurricane season, expected to repeat another above-average hurricane activity this year for the seventh consecutive above-average season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warned in May, days ahead of the official start of the hurricane season on June 1. For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes.

If one or more of those expected major hurricanes make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast, where a lot of refining capacity is located, some refiners could be forced to preventively shut down or could be at risk of flooding, which would additionally tighten the fuel market in the United States.

Currently, U.S. refiners are producing at or near maximum levels, and they reiterated this in a letter last month in response to President Biden’s call to produce more gasoline and lower gasoline bills for American consumers.

“Without corresponding increases in crude oil production, any benefit from incremental refining capacity would be essentially nullified by the increased crude oil demand and likely higher price,” the presidents of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) wrote in a letter to the President.

“That’s why it’s important to increase crude oil production. This global crude oil supply issue is not likely to be solved quickly, even if more refining capacity were available,” they say.

US oil reserves and what does it mean … an opinion

Inbox

When I first heard about this, I had written that releasing oil from the US strategic reserve was a foolish strategic security move. The export of crude and other fuels may well serve to dampen prices in Europe or in Asia but does nothing for the American consumer. Approximately 1 million barrels per day is being released from the strategic petroleum reserve also called the SPR through October of this year. As of the end of last month it’s at the lowest level since 1986.

Europe is indeed buying crude whether it be the Netherlands or Italy and payment is in US dollars. Effectively given the decline in the Euro the other day there’s been an increase in receipts of roughly 15% due to the falling value against the dollar.

The question is why is the US selling its strategic reserve oil to everyone from Europe to India etc. when oil prices at the pump in America have reached all-time highs curtailing US consumer spending as the price of goods increase due to the increased energy costs?There is one point that seems to be lost in this exercise. Because it essentially is causing the US become weaker strategically by depleting at oil reserves previously purchased at much lower prices; what also happens is the US is actually collecting cash for actual sale of goods. This means that it actually is collecting on balance sheet money. This begs the question of whether or not the US is running out of on balance sheet money to pay its bills. It is one thing to print money but it is another thing to ask a country to accept dollars that are not back by something; pure dollars received as a result of a sale of oil is indeed dollars back by commodity sale. In times of trouble the best and easiest to sell assets go first. At a time when real questions exist about the solvency of nations to deal with debt it’s a reflection worth considering. Because one needs to separate currency from country, especially since more USD exists outside of America than within. The reason I say that, is with what is going on today in Europe with a plunging euro and basically a denial of both oil and natural gas from Russia, the collapse of Europe is inevitable. Yes, in some cases certain European countries may will have 2 to 3 months of gas on reserve in storage. That gas will be used up very quickly to continue anything resembling normal in terms of commercial activity. Be sure, there will be NO solidarity in sharing gas. There is no gas flowing through the Yamal pipe and as of the July 10th, Nord Stream 1 will shut down for regular maintenance. Whether it comes back on remaining to be seen. People have missed the news as of the 4th of July, whereby Russia has implemented a policy of not providing any commodities to countries that are considered to be hostile. While we can criticize this move because of what it means, it is also a confirmation that Russia has turned it’s back on the west. Often, I have written one of the great losses for the west will occur when Russia turns eastward. Largely because the West has never done anything to wean itself off cheap Russian raw materials. Whether or not it turns out to be a good deal for Russian long-term or not, the impact immediately is that Europe faces a true crunch of availed raw commodities that will be in short or none existent supply. Furthermore, Europe has a currency that has long outlived its due date, due to the fact that the lowering of interest rates going back as far as 2014 have destroyed the bond market in Europe. It was always a matter of time before the currency collapsed as a result. It is more than likely there will be a severe reduction in value far beyond 15% that’s already occurred this week against the USD and loss against the British Pound. As things happen one might expect that the EU itself will crumble and you will see a return to nation states with national currencies. One might even consider the fact today holding any euro denominated asset is risk requiring measured thought. London will be a total winner as a Forex window due to Brussel’s demise. And that is with the political shenanigans currently ongoing with BOJO. Before this week 1/4 of all. Europeans companies were looking to bail and that number will grow benefiting Britain and America. Perhaps even migration of people will occur not with standing the likelihood of currency controls and restrictions. Try and buy a wood burning stove in Germany today to understand the concern and angst of locals.

Typically European financial troubles spread to North America within a 2-3 week period. Thus one imagines ill winds will be blowing westward from Europe soon.

This muddled puzzle becomes more twisted an affair when one realizes the Russia, China, Iran and Venezuela will be conducting war games mid-August both in the Caribbean and Latin America. For a long time China has been building up its assets in the Caribbean in places like the Bahamas to questionable ends. The US has long ignored local theater security over extensions of hegemony that perhaps were better served by staying closer to home. Unfortunately, America today is led by the most inept group in a long time at a time when real direction, moral authority and honestly are required to lead itself, let alone be a beacon for anyone else. One does wonder how the hourglass of time is doing, before the sands run out.

Whatever comes through the latter part of summer end into early fall we can expect upheavals and instability that will come as major surprises to most people.

END

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia//// NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA/PAKISTAN

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0190 DOWN 0.0065 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN

USA/ YEN 135.26 DOWN .285 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.1893 DOWN 0.0058

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 48.67 POINTS UP 1.43%

Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 266.41 PTS OR 1.22%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.31% // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 22.72 PTS OR .10%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 48.67 PTS UP 1.43%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .50%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 266.41 OR 1.22%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1761.25

silver:$19.19

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 106.80 UP 0.48 CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.27% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.247% UP 3 AND 3/10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.24%// DOWN 6 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.24 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +1.153%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0173 DOWN 0.0083 or 83 basis points

USA/Japan: 135.78 UP .247 OR YEN DOWN 25 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.1904 DOWN 0.0046 OR 46 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0032 OR 32 BASIS pts to 1.3062

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.7080

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)..6.7144

TURKISH LIRA: 17.22 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.2470

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 8 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.8095% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 3.125 UP 9 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 106.96 UP 66 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDENESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 82.30 PTS OR 1.17%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 193.32 POINTS OR 1.56%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 117.42 PTS OR 2.08%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 10.80 OR 0.14%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 215.93PTS OR 1.04%

WTI Oil price 95.28 12: EST

Brent Oil: 100.60 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE FALLS TO: 63.57 DOWN 2 & 40/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.153

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0184 down .0073 OR 73 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.19300 DOWN .0021 or 21 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 135.95 UP ,412//YEN DOWN 41 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3032 up 0 (CDN dollar down 0 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 98.64

Brent OIL: 100.66

USA 10 yr bond yield: 2.928 UP 11 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.134 UP 12 pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 17.21

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 63.350 DOWN 2 AND 20/100 ROUBLES

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 69.86 PTS OR 0.23 %

NASDAQ 100 UP 72.68 PTS OR 0.62%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 26.97 DOWN 0.57 PTS (2.09)%

GLD: 162.15 DOWN 2.60 PTS OR 1.58%

SLV/ 17.69 DOWN .04 CENTS OR 0.23%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold Drop, Dollar Pops As Fed Confirms Hawkish Stance

WEDNESDAY, JUL 06, 2022 – 04:00 PM

ISM data confirming a contraction in employment across Manufacturing and Services, but showed prices remain extremely high screamed ‘stagflation’ and the ‘recession’ trade continued with growthy stocks rallying and commodities dumped. The Fed Minutes confirmed an “even more restrictive” stance on rates and the need to maintain (or rebuild) The Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility.

Overall the rate-trajectory shifted hawkishly today (but not by much)…

Source: Bloomberg

Specifically, rate-hike odds for July and September rose very modestly on the day

Source: Bloomberg

As Goldman’s Chris Hussey remarked, markets this year have been trapped on a merry-go-round of worry, with a rotating cast of concerns: growth, inflation, recession, rates, inflation, growth, stagflation, repeat. Right now it seems we are in ‘recession’ mode.

Small Caps were lower on the day as Nasdaq extended yesterday’s big rebound

Rather oddly – barbelling – Utes and Tech were the best performing sector on the day. Energy was the ugliest horse in the glue factory today…

Source: Bloomberg

Value and Growth factors managed gains today after yesterday’s massive growth outperformance (but as the chart below shows, we’ve seen these false starts before)…

Source: Bloomberg

Yesterday’s big short squeeze ran out of ammo today early on but did try to push back higher after Europe closed…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds erased all of yesterday’s gains and then some with the belly of the curve smashed higher in yield (5Y +16bps, 30Y +9bps)

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields tested back below 3.00% for the first time since May today, then snapped higher…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve flattened notably on the day again…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar extended yesterday’s gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was lower on the day but rebounded back above $20,000 during the US session…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar strength and hawkish shift did gold no favors today as it fell further with Futs at their lowest since Aug 2021…

Oil prices fell once again with WTI trying and failing to regain $100 (as Brent broke below $100)…

As wholesale gasoline prices plunged again, now at their lowest since the start of May…

Finally, we note that next week brings the start of second quarter earnings season and a flurry of updates from Corporate America. However, this two week period is the ‘most-bullish’ segment of the year historically…

Source: Bloomberg

Oh and then there’s this… Bond volatility is on the verge of reaching its highest level ‘since Lehman’…

Source: Bloomberg

Think about how that will trigger a VaR shock!!??

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

ii) USA DATA

US Services Surveys Signal “Bout Of Stagflation” Ahead, Employment Contracts Most Since COVID Collapse

WEDNESDAY, JUL 06, 2022 – 10:04 AM

With sentiment in freefall, and US macro data serially surprising to the downside – enough to prompt dramatic reductions in expectations for The Fed’s rate-hike trajectory – analysts expected Services surveys to follow their Manufacturing brethren lower in June.

S&P Global US Services PMI printed 52.7 in June, up from the flash print of 51.6 but down from the May print of 53.4
US ISM Services printed 55.3 in June, down from 55.9 in May, but better than the expected 54.0

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, S&P Global points out that US Composite New Orders fall for first time in almost two years.

The S&P Global US Composite PMI Output Index posted 52.3 in June, down from 53.6 in May. The latest rise extended the current sequence of expansion to two years, but was the softest since January. The slowdown in growth was broad based, with both manufacturing and services seeing weaker increases at the end of the second quarter. Business confidence also waned, dropping to the lowest since September 2020.

A weaker expansion in output reflected a renewed contraction in new orders, the first in almost two years. New business was down across both monitored sectors, with new export orders also falling. Rates of input cost and output price inflation remained sharp in June, but eased amid softer demand conditions.

Most notably, employment for both Services and Manufacturing contracted in June according to ISM…

Brace yourself for a negative print on Friday…

As one ISM Survey respondent noted:

“Consumers are shifting purchases away from our discretionary products to essentials. Inflation is definitely taking a bite from our sales, and mall traffic is far below the norm, potentially due to inflation, a need for more disposable income on essentials and less willingness to drive to malls. E-commerce sales will be going up again.” [Retail Trade]

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

“June saw signs of a broad-based weakening of the economy with demand now falling in both the manufacturing and service sectors. While the survey data point to a stalling of GDP at the end of the second quarter, a downshifting in the forward-looking new orders index and drop in companies’ future output expectations hints at falling economic activity as we head through the summer.
“Demand for goods and services from households is showing signs of moderating substantially due to the rising cost of living. Meanwhile, tighter financial conditions are starting to hit, and it was notable that the service sector slowdown was led by a steep drop in financial services activity.
“Meanwhile there was welcome news in terms of a marked easing in upward price pressures, but it’s clear that price growth remains elevated despite coming off recent peaks, all of which points to a bout of stagflation in the near term.”

Not exactly the ‘picture of health’ The Fed keeps painting as being capable of withstanding multiple rate-hikes for the rest of the year.

END

Interesting: job openings plunge by most since COVID crash, but remain high: two openings for every unemployed worker

(zerohedge)

Job Openings Plunge By Most Since Covid Crash, Remain Stubbornly High: Nearly 2 Openings For Every Unemployed Worker

WEDNESDAY, JUL 06, 2022 – 10:32 AM

After recent reports that the US labor market had suddenly hit a brick wall, with mass layoffs surging…

… and job openings according to third-party trackers such as Revello showing that total job postings plunged by 22.5%, the biggest change on record…

… many were looking to see if these dismal trends would be confirmed by today’s closely watched JOLTs report, arguably the Fed’s favorite indicator of labor market softness (or tightness as the case is right now).

Well, for the second month in a row that did not happen, and instead the two-month delayed JOLTS report showed that in May, job openings did plunge by a whopping 427K, the biggest revised one-month drop since the covid crash, to 11.254 million but the drop was from a bigly upward revised 11.681 million in April (originally 11.4 million), the second highest print on record.

According to the report, the largest decreases in job openings were in professional and business services (-325,000), durable goods manufacturing (-138,000), and nondurable goods manufacturing (-70,000).

What is just as remarkable, is that despite one of the biggest drops in job openings on record, the continued tightening in the labor market, there was still a whopping 5.3 million more vacant jobs than unemployed workers in April, nearly double the 5.95 million total unemployed workers), suggesting that the US labor market remains extremely tight – and broken – with the US unofficially sliding into recession.

And with far more job openings than unemployed workers, this meant that in May there were again less than 1 unemployed workers – a near-record low 0.52 to be exact – for every job opening.

With the number of job openings tumbling, it is not surprising that the number of hires also shrank, dropping from a downward revised 6.527MM to 6.489MM in May. According to the BLS, hires decreased in finance and insurance (-40,000).

One last observation comes from the May quits rate: after the number of Americans quitting their job hit an all time high 4.510 million last November, the number of people quitting their jobs has been declining modestly, and in April dropped to 4.270 Million, the lowest since January. Still, the number remains stubbornly high as workers continue to have much of the leverage and are happy to quit their job in search of better paying options elsewhere, hardly the stuff that indicates that wage-price spiral is about to end.

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

end

iii)a. USA economic stories

3b/INFLATION COMMENTARIES/LOG JAMS ETC

END

SWAMP STORIES

King Report

The King Report July 5, 2022 Issue 6793

Independent View of the News

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model has Q2 at -2.1% due to the ugly US economic data on Friday.

Markets on Monday
Nikkei +0.84%, CSI 300 +0.66%, Hang Seng -0.13%, Shanghai Comp +0.53%, Shenzhen Comp +1.17%
Euro Stoxx 50 +0.12%, FTSE +0.89%, CAC +0.4%, DAX -0.31%, IBEX -0.17%, MIB -0.05%
ESUs: H 3828.50, L 3793.00, C 3813.50, -13.75; USUs: H 139 27/32, L 139 29/32, C 138 21/32 -12/32; Gold +$6.80; WTI 110.66, +2.06%; Dollar Index +0.06%

Bloomberg: The chief of Japan’s banking industry lobby group is calling on the nation’s central bank to pay closer attention to the adverse impacts of its ultra-easy monetary policy after the yen plunged to a 24-year low https://t.co/5U0sulmXW4

PMI falls to near two-year low in June amid contraction in client demand (52.7, 52.4 expected)
Inflationary concerns were once again cited by firms, as business confidence regarding the year-ahead outlook slumped to the lowest level since October 2020…
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2d28f20f99144f25bd47db453ee995a8

June ISM Manufacturing PMI 53 (56.1 previous), 54.5 expected; Prices Paid 78.5, 80 expected; New Orders 49.2 (contraction), 52 expected; Employment 47.3, 50 expected.

June 2022 Manufacturing ISM – “We are hearing from customers that their inventories are high, and sales are coming down. We expect orders to decline in the coming months until inventories are leveled properly against demand.” [Apparel, Leather & Allied Products]https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/june/

On Friday, ESUs sank during afternoon trading in Asia. They hit a bottom (3744.50) at the European open. ESUs and stocks then methodically rallied (on upward seasonal bias to start the month) until then peaked near 6 ET. After an hour retrenchment, ESUs and stocks began the rally for the NYSE open.

ESUs and stocks dropped modestly on the NYSE open; but someone juiced ESUs from 3773.50 at 9:34 ET to a session high of 3816.75 at 9:59 ET. ESUs and stocks then tumbled on the disappointing June ISM report. Contractions in New Orders and Employment were especially troubling.

ESUs dropped to 3762.50 at 10:30 ET. The usual suspects spent the remainder of the thin pre-holiday session forcing ESUs and stocks higher. The high for the day appeared at 15:42 ET.

On Friday, bonds soared due to recession angst. USUs, which traded negatively during most of Asian trading, rallied as much as 2 23/32. The 10-year yield fell to 2.79%. Bonds sank 2 2/32 points by 13:00 ET. After a modest rally that ended just before 15:00 ET, USUs declined modestly into the close.

Positive aspects of previous session
ESUs and US equities rallied from 10:30 ET until 15:42 ET
Bonds soared to 141 11/32 on US recession angst; but they declined in the afternoon.

Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds sank in the afternoon
ESUs and stocks declined in early US trading on recession angst

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How much of a US recession is baked into US stocks?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3802.42
Previous session High/Low: 3829.82; 3752.10

@EPBResearch: The latest Atlanta Fed debacle hacked this thing (Real Final Sales of GDP) to 0.1%.   Outside of 2008, this is the worst trending level of real final sales in 25+ years.
https://twitter.com/EPBResearch/status/1543256947989905411?t=dAloZ9Rap2SdHImG8FFLcA&s=09

Jeff Bezos calls out Joe Biden’s latest inflation claim
“My message to the companies running gas stations and setting prices at the pump is simple: this is a time of war and global peril. Bring down the price you are charging at the pump to reflect the cost you’re paying for the product,” Biden said Saturday morning… @JeffBezos: Inflation is far too important a problem for the White House to keep making statements like this. It’s either straight ahead misdirection or a deep misunderstanding of basic market dynamics…  https://t.co/ostdYndnaz

CNN: “What do you say to those families that say, ‘listen, we can’t afford to pay $4.85 a gallon for months, if not years?’” BIDEN ADVISOR BRIAN DEESE: “This is about the future of the Liberal World Order, and we have to stand firm.”  https://t.co/91RMPja660

US energy producers roast Biden for demanding ‘companies running gas stations’ lower pump prices – “Working on it Mr. President. In the meantime – have a Happy 4th and please make sure the WH intern who posted this tweet registers for Econ 101 for the fall semester…,” they tweeted…
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/u-s-energy-roast-biden-demanding-companies-running-gas-stations-lower-pump-prices

Biden Adviser Says the Quiet Part Out Loud on Why Americans Must Continue Facing Pain at the Pump https://t.co/UsDySAj0yc

Thousands more flights canceled or delayed as 4th of July travel blitz continues … airlines are over-booked and under-staffed… https://t.co/VeUaUQu7cS

Delta pilots picket airports amid anticipated July 4 chaos, canceled flights https://t.co/NvJmIPjLDn

Hunter Biden’s laptop had contacts for Google execs, US officials for China policy
Hunter Biden’s hard drive contained an enviable lineup of contacts for top US officials tasked with overseeing the US-China relationship, and at least 10 senior Google executives — raising new questions about the extent to which Joe Biden’s well-connected son could have leveraged his connections for personal profit… https://nypost.com/2022/07/02/hunter-bidens-laptop-had-contacts-for-google-execs-us-officials-for-china-policy/

@PaulSperry30: Sources say FBI/DOJ have wiretaps of comms b/t Hunter, Jimmy Biden and their Chinese nat’l business partner Chi Ping Patrick Ho, aka He Zhiping, obtained from FISA warrants. Fearing CEFC ties to ChiCom mil intel, Hunter monitored as subject of C.I./FARA probe since 2018

Biden Close to Rollback of China Tariffs to Fight Inflation (“10% for The Big Guy”) – BBG
The Biden administration is considering an easing in some of the tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese imports…  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-close-rollback-chinese-tariffs-164504220.html

WSJ Editorial Board: Bidenomics 101 – The President doesn’t appear to know anything about how the private economy works. (Why should he? Joe has been pigging out at the public trough for years)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidenomics-101-joe-biden-tweet-gas-prices-refiners-markets-jeff-bezos-11656892820

A Harvard-Harris poll shows 71% of Americans do NOT want Biden to run for president in 2024. 39% say the US in recession now. 49% believe the US will be in recession within one year.  Only 12% believe that the US will avoid recession…Congressional approval is at an all-tie low of 28%.
https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/HHP_June2022_KeyResults.pdf

Janet Yellen warns abortion ban would damage economy, women
https://nypost.com/2022/05/10/janet-yellen-warns-abortion-ban-would-damage-economy-women/

Germany warns of ‘historic challenge’ as commerce slides into deficit
Power costs and disruptions to commerce pushed the nation right into a month-to-month commerce deficit in items for the primary time in additional than 30 years…
https://www.businesslend.com/news/germany-warns-of-historic-challenge-as-trade-slides-into-deficit/

Today – Encouraged by the afternoon rally on Friday, traders will play for the expected rally to start a new week (the Monday rally). The thin Friday afternoon markets allowed a determined few to push stocks higher and bonds sharply lower.

ESUs rallied 20.50 from their 4^th of July low; but they still closed -13.75. The markets are now adjusting for a US recession. Volatile rallies can materialize at any time; however, it is extremely unlikely that the stock market has adequately adjusted to the earnings decline that can appear in a US recession. ESUs are +6.25 (from Monday) at 20:30 ET.

Expected econ data: June S&P US Mfg PMI 52.4; June ISM Mfg 54.5, Prices Paid 79.9, New Orders 52, Employment 50; May Construction Spending 0.4% m/m; Wards Total Vehicle Sales for June 13.3m

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4019; 100-day MA: 4217; 150-day MA: 4351; 200-day MA: 4394
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,232; 100-day MA: 33,264; 150-day MA: 34,008; 200-day MA: 34,316

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4928.42 triggers a buy signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4204.42 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3708.13 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3850.36 triggers a buy signal

Republican slams Biden for ‘unhinged’ criticism of Supreme Court while overseas https://t.co/4Vpp9z6Ilg

Rep. Waltz: Not surprised American pride has declined the way Biden speaks about our country
When schools teach America is fundamentally bad I’m not surprised there’s a decline in pride in our institutions and flag, Waltz said… https://t.co/1HDiDaaeRX

Top Biden official appears to blame victims in Texas migrant-truck horror https://t.co/pF9BBmPXNx
“They put their lives, their life savings, in the hands of these exploitative organizations, these criminal organizations that do not care for their lives and only seek to make a profit,” Mayorkas said. ..

Text Messages Show Cassidy Hutchinson Referring to January 6 Committee As ‘BS’
“I had to accept service because the U.S. Marshalls came to my apartment last Wednesday, but I haven’t made contact with the Committee. I’m just on a tight timeline and just trying to figure out what my options are to deal with this bs,” Hutchinson added… https://t.co/qkorWlLOZ7

Several NYC Election Sites Had ‘No Republican Ballots’ During Last Week’s Primary
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/nyc-election-sites-had-no-republican-ballots-primary-election

@ByronYork: On ABC, Cheney said the most important issue facing the United States today–more than inflation, crime, Ukraine, China, border, anything–is ‘protecting the nation from Donald Trump.‘…
    Cheney does not want to ‘convey the impression that somehow the [J6] hearings are political.’
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-22-rep-liz-cheney-secretary-alejandro/story

Left renounces Independence Day on Twitter: ‘Burn this country to the godd— ground’
https://t.co/F428s5frhC

Numerous celebrities and reporters posted anti-USA remarks or stories for the 4^th of July.

City of Orlando ‘Regrets’ Impact of Fireworks Promo Saying People ‘Probably Don’t Want to Celebrate’ USA and ‘Can’t Blame Them’ – “A lot of people probably don’t want to celebrate our nation right now, and we can’t blame them. When there is so much division, hate and unrest, why on earth would you want to have a party celebrating any of it?” the email began… There was enough of a backlash that they sent out a “regrets” email to the same list on Saturday…
https://www.mediaite.com/politics/city-of-orlando-regrets-impact-of-fireworks-promo-saying-people-probably-dont-want-to-celebrate-usa-and-cant-blame-them/

Navy threatens to penalize sailors who purposely misuse gender pronouns https://t.co/fJCHd74kam

@SebGorka: 100-year-old Marine breaks down… “This is not the country we fought for!”
https://twitter.com/monicaonairtalk/status/1543449980379299840?s=02

Supreme Court marshal appeals to Virginia, Maryland governors to help stop protests as DOJ demurs  https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/supreme-court-marshal-appeals-virginia-maryland-governors-help-quell-protests

FOX 32 takes ride-along with Chicago’s carjacking task force, 80% of Cook County suspects walk free
https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/fox-32-takes-ride-along-with-chicagos-carjacking-task-force-80-of-cook-county-suspects-walk-free.amp

Two Chicago cops attacked in their cars in separate incidents Sunday https://t.co/YiwUdNkYky

New 2021 Chicago data shows 400,000 high-priority incidents where dispatchers had no police available to send (In Chicago, citizens are mostly on their own – so let’s disarm them!)
https://wirepoints.org/new-2021-chicago-data-shows-400000-high-priority-incidents-where-dispatchers-had-no-police-available-to-send-wirepoints/

Greg Hunter: interviewing David Morgan

Great Reset Will Be the Great Reject – David Morgan

Great Reset Will Be the Great Reject – David Morgan

By Greg Hunter On July 5, 2022 In Market AnalysisNo Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Economic analyst and financial writer David Morgan predicted in early March, “When you get gasoline going up to the $5, $6, $7 range and you’ve got food going up to the level it’s gone up to and continues to go up to, it’s going to be bad.” Morgan was right, and he says this destabilization of the middle-class is all part of the so-called “Great Reset” by the global elite. Morgan says this is not going to turn out like the globalists want. Morgan says, “This is not about money–it’s about control. They want absolute control.”

What can people do to make the “Great Reset” not work? Morgan says, “It’s the ‘Great Reject.’ You do not participate in the ‘Great Reset.’ You stay out of the system to the best of your ability, which means you use cash like Catherine Austin Fitts talks about. You can trade in silver and gold. Some states allow you to do that, and more are coming on all the time, putting into law the ability to transact in gold and silver in that state . . . to be able to use gold and silver again. Mitigate your food situation by growing some of your own. . . . Get friendly with farmers. There are a lot of things you can do that are pretty simple. There a lot of things you can do that put you in control. They want this . . . but it’s not going to happen. What they want is the ‘New World Order,’ or globalism. What they are really going to get is the opposite. . . . You are going to see a disintegration of that kind of power base and get more local. As the situation gets worse and worse, the smaller communities will get together and say what can we do to survive? So, they are basically going to get the opposite of what they want.”

Morgan talks about the deflationary nature of all these CV19 injections. He also talks about why silver and gold work best in deflationary environments. Morgan tells you the importance of having cash and predicts extreme inflation and deflation coming at the same time, which is the definition of stagflation last seen in the 1970’s. This time, Morgan says it will be far worse and predicts, “The next ‘Great Depression’ will make the last ‘Great Depression’ look like a small technical correction. . . . . The worse you inflate or destroy the value of a currency, the worse the repercussions are. . . . Not only are Social Security and pension plans going to collapse, but it is the system at large. It is going to be pervasive; it will touch almost every person.”

In closing, Morgan says, “We are fighting evil people, but are we fighting more than evil people at the top? . . . We are fighting principalities and powers of evil.”

There is a lot more in the 41-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One on One with David Morgan, founder of “The Morgan Report.”

(https://usawatchdog.com/great-reset-will-be-the-great-reject-david-morgan/)

After the Interview:

There is some free information on TheMorganReport.com.

For the 10 rules of silver investing, click here.

To get a copy of the Silver Manifesto, click here.

To sign up to become a subscriber of “The Morgan Report,” click here.

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