DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

EXCHANGE: COMEX EXCHANGE:EXCHANGE:

EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: JUNE 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,820.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/27/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 06/29/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 5
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 4
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 25
991 H CME 25

TOTAL: 30 30
MONTH TO DATE: 23,955

no. of contracts issued by JPMorgan: 0/20

_____________________________________________________________________________________

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR JUNE CONTRACT 30 NOTICE(S) FOR 3000 Oz//0.09331 TONNES)

total notices so far: 23,955 contracts for 2,395,500 oz (74.510 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES:

21 NOTICE(S) FILED 105,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month 1851 : for 9,255,000 oz

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS: (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (phys) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.40 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS

AT THE SLV// ://NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 542.000 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 4419 CONTRACTS TO 137,671 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG GAIN IN OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.04 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.04) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SILVER LONGS//BUT MAINLY WE HAD ADDITIONAL SPECULATOR ADDITIONS. ALL OF THE COMEX LOSSES DUE TO INITIATION OF SPREADER LIQUIDATION

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
I) HUGE SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS /. II)WE ALSO HAD SOME REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//. iii) A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) A STRONG INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 7.635 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 10 CONTRACTS OR 50,000 OZ//NEW STANDING: 9,375,000 / // V) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/SPREADER LIQUIDATION

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL:

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI SILVER TODAY: CONTRACTS : –973

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE:

TOTAL CONTACTS for 19 days, total 15,774, contracts: 78.870 million oz OR 34.151MILLION OZ PER DAY. (830 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 78.870 MILLION OZ

LAST 11 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND WE ARE STILL GOING STRONG THIS MONTH.

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 78.870 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4419 DESPITE OUR TINY $0.04 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1504 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS THE DOMINANT FEATURE TODAY: /HUGE BANKER SHORT COVERING AS THEY GET OUT OF DODGE//// WE HAVE A HUGE INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE. OF 7.635 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 50,000 QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING: 9,375,000 OZ // .. WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 2914 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 14.575 MILLION OZ WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE. ALL OF THE COMEX LOSS WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATION.

WE HAD 21 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 105,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1073 CONTRACTS TO 498,078 AND CLOSER TO RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: +47 CONTRACTS.

THE SMALL INCREASE IN COMEX OI CAME WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $4.90//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY / WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANYING OUR STRONG SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //AND SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 69.26 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE /FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3400 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON //NEW STANDING: 74.609TONNES

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $4.90 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4958 OI CONTRACTS 15.421 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3885 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 498,031

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4958, WITH 1073 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3885 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2812 CONTRACTS OR 8.746TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3885) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (1073,): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2812 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AND SOME ADDITION TO SPECULATOR SHORTS ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE. AT 69.26 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P JUMP OF 2500 OZ//NEW STANDING: 74.715 TONNES / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING//SOME SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS //.,4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

JUNE

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE :

68,527 CONTRACTS OR 6,852,700 OZ OR 213.14 TONNES 19 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3606 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES: 213.14 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 213.14/3550 x 100% TONNES 6.00% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 213.14 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF SILVER

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, FOR SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JULY), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 4419 CONTRACT OI TO 137,671 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO.

EFP ISSUANCE 1504 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

JULY 1504 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 0 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 4419 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1504 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 2915 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 14.575 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $0.04 .

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 30.03 PTS OR 0.89% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 189.45 PTS OR 0.85% /The Nikkei closed UP 178.20 OR 0.66% //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.87% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.6947 /Oil UP TO 101.20 dollars per barrel for WTI and UP TO 117.02 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN // ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6947 OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.6962: /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 1073 CONTRACTS TO 498,031 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541 OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS COMEX DECREASE OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $4.90 IN GOLD PRICING MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP (4052 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO SHORT BIG TIME AND THEY ADDED TO THEIR SHORT POSITIONS

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW MOVING PAST THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 3885 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: ;: , . 0 AUG :3885 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3885 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED TOTAL OF 4958 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3885 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 1073 CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD $4.90.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING JUNE (74.609),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.609 TONNES

THE BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE //// (IT FELL $4.90) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SPECULATOR LONGS/COMMERCIAL LONGS BUT SPECULATOR SHORTS CONTINUED TO ADD TO THEIR POSITIONS//// WE HAVE REGISTERED A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4975 TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE (74.609 TONNES)…

WE HAD +37 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM COMEX TRADES. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4958 CONTRACTS OR 495800 OZ OR 15.4 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 59,977/// poor/

final gold volumes/yesterday 156,728 /poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR JUNE ’22 COMEX GOLD //JUNE 28

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	NIL oz
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil
No of oz served (contracts) today	30 notice(s)3000 OZ 0.09331 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	32 contracts 3200 oz 0.0995 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	23,955 notices 2,395,500 OZ 74.510 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

total dealer deposit 0

No dealer withdrawals

0 customer deposit

total deposits: NIL oz

0 customer withdrawals:

total withdrawal: NIL oz

ADJUSTMENTS:1//dealer to customer

Loomis: 32,215.302 OZ

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE.

For the front month of JUNE we have an oi of 62 contracts having lost 43 contracts

We had 9 notices filed on MONDAY so we LOST 34 contracts or an additional 2500 oz wil NOT stand for gold in this very active month of June as they were EFP’d to London

July has a LOSS OF 139 OI to stand at 1267

August has a LOSS of 1205 contracts DOWN to 405,474 contracts

We had 30 notice(s) filed today for NIL 3000 oz FOR THE JUNE 2022 CONTRACT MONTH.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 9 contract(s) of which 30 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2021. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (23,955) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (JUNE 62 CONTRACTS ) minus the number of notices served upon today 30 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,398,700 OZ OR 74.609 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of JUNE.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month:

No of notices filed so far (23,955) x 100 oz+ (62) OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (30} x 100 oz} which equals 2,398,700 oz standing OR 74.609 TONNES in this active delivery month of JUNE.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 74.609 TONNES (A STRONG STANDING FOR A JUNE ( ACTIVE) DELIVERY MONTH)

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o

total pledged gold: 2,419,784.828 oz 75.26 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 33,183,194,729 OZ

TOTAL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 16,003,775.914 OZ

TOTAL OF ALL REGISTERED GOLD: 17,179,418.815 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 14,792,235.0 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)

END

SILVER/COMEX/JUNE 28

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	2,007,650.420 oz Brinks CNT DELAWARE HSBC JPMORGAN
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nilOZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	600,157.100 oz jpm
No of oz served today (contracts)	21CONTRACT(S) 105,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	24 contracts (120,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1851 contracts 9,255,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

And now for the wild silver comex results

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

We have 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 600,157.100 oz

total deposit: 600,157.100 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 169.097 million oz/333.529 million =50.67% of comex

Comex withdrawals: 5

Brinks 200,020,720 oz

CNT: 599,734.320 oz

Delaware 3661.300 oz

HSBC 600,417.480 oz

JPMorgan: 603,846.600 oz

total withdrawal 2,007,680.420 oz

adjustments: 2

dealer to customer:

JPMorgan 191,912.800 oz
Manfra: 169,898.460 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 69.749 MILLION OZ

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 333.529 MILLION OZ

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JUNE OI: 45 HAVING GAINED 0 CONTRACTS.

WE HAD 10 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 10 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 50,000 OZ WILL STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE

DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE

JULY HAD A LOSS OF 7775 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 14,210 CONTRACTS.

AUGUST GAINED 60 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1386

SEPTEMBER HAD A GAIN OF 3481 CONTRACTS UP TO 103,680 CONTRACTS.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 10 for 50,000 oz

Comex volumes:37,057// est. volume today// weak

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 85,571 contracts ( strong )

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1851 x 5,000 oz = 9,255,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(45) and the number of notices served upon today 21 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the JUNE./2022 contract month: 1851 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE (45) – number of notices served upon today (21) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month equates 9,375,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS:

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.40 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1061.04 TONNES

JUNE 24/WITH GOLD UP 45 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.70 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1071.77 TONNES

JUNE 22/WITH GOLD UP 15 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1073.80 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONES

JUNE 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.25: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.60 TONNES INTO THE GLD.///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1075.54 TONNES

JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $28.95: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $6.50/BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.74 TONNES

JUNE 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $41.55: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 10/WITH GOLD UP $21.40: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 1065.39 TONNES

JUNE 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $7.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1063.07 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.85: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.75//A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1066.04 TONNES

JUNE 2/WITH GOLD UP $22.50: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1067.20 TONNES

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $1$ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: AWITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.36 TONNES

MAY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.10: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 27/WITH GOLD UP $4.95//NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

May 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.10/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1069.81 TONNES

MAY 25/WITH GOLD UP @$2.70: A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 11.89./INVENTORY RESTS AT 1068.07 TONNES

MAY 20/WITH GOLD UP $7.75: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.97 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 1056.18 TONNES

MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $24.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 1049.21 TONNES//

GLD INVENTORY: 1056.40 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.00 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 24/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 542.000 MILLION OZ

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 41 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.029 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.137 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.166 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 739,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./:INVENTORY RESTS AT 543.660 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 62 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 10.WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 830,000 Z FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.399 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 923,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 545.229 MILLION OZ

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 544.306 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.459 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 547.167 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 3/WITH SILVER DOWN $.34: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITTHDRAWAL OF 246,000 OZ FORM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 553.626 MILLION OZ..

JUNE 2/WITH SILVER UP 57 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.261 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS T 553.872 MILLION OZ

JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.538 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 556.133 MILLION OZ//

MAY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN $.41 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST S AT 558.071 MILLION OZ//

MAY 27/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ///

MAY 26/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.515 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 558.071 MILLION OZ

MAY 25/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .922 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ //INVENTORY RESTS AT 561.486 MILLION OZ//

MAY 20.WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WIHDRAWAL OF .785 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 565.085 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 542.000 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Will Russian gold import ban have any effect?

Over the past weekend, it was announced that the countries comprising the G7 nations would be imposing a ban on the purchasing of Russian produced gold in a further attempt to limit Russia’s access to money with which to finance its continuing war on Ukraine. The announcement is, apparently, due today, and will be confirmed by U.S. President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Russia is the world’s second largest gold producer, after China, according to the latest data from specialist precious metals consultancy Metals Focus (See: World Top 20 Gold Producing Countries 2021 and Gold Outlook), and its gold output last year was said to be worth some US$15.45 billion to the Russian economy, but whether this supposed export ban by the G7 countries will have any significant effect on Russian export income is somewhat less certain.

Gold tends to find buyers regardless of such imposed bans, and it is perhaps notable that the world’s two largest gold consumers, China and India, as well as several other major gold importers, are not members of the G7. India is already known to be building its state gold reserves, while China is thought to be doing so surreptitiously, and Russia itself may also be adding to its gold holdings as it continues its de-dollarisation process, but is currently following in China’s footsteps in being secretive about any volumes involved.

Russia has also gone on record as saying that it, and the other BRICS (Brazil, India, China and South Africa) nations are working together to develop a new reserve currency to rival the U.S. dollar which will probably have gold as a major constituent in parallel with a system to replace SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) from which Russia has been arbitrarily cut off by the U.S.

The logic behind this is strong and it all may have some appeal globally given apparent U.S. control over the current system and a current reserve currency which is currently mostly declining in value – particularly given inflation levels in the U.S. and elsewhere. If a new reserve currency can offer greater stability in value, and some form of gold, or commodity backing, may offer this, it may find greater worldwide acceptance, although that would undoubtedly take time. Global economic changes of this nature tend to move slowly.

This all creates yet more uncertainty in the gold markets. The yellow metal did advance in price in European trade this morning, but still remains range-bound between $1,820-1,850 with little real sign of breaking out in either direction. It will probably need to take a lead from U.S. activity, which has tended to be largely unsupportive of the gold price of late.

U.S. gold price interest will probably largely depend on the various data releases on inflation, employment, business confidence and GDP growth as and when they are released. All will have an impact on likely Fed policy decisions at the next FOMC meeting due in late July. Our own view is that inflation will remain elevated, employment and the US economy will both show signs of stress and business confidence will turn down. All this suggests a perhaps more aggressive approach by the Fed with higher interest rates than most have been forecasting this year and next unless there is some kind of policy reversal, which some economic analysts have been suggesting.

28 Jun 2022

END

3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

How foolish can one country get. Bolivia’s central bank plans to put gold produced in their

country by strengthening international reserves. Who thought of this one?

Bolivia’s central bank plans to put gold reserves at risk

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-06-27 21:23Section: Daily Dispatches

Bolivia’s Central Bank Will Invest Gold Reserves in International Markets

By Walter Vasquez
El Deber
Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia
Sunday, May 15, 2022

https://eldeber.com.bo/economia/el-banco-central-apunta-a-invertir-las-reservas-de-oro-en-mercados-internacionales_278135

The Central Bank of Bolivia has as one of its objectives for this year to gain approval of laws that authorize it to buy local gold and carry out financial operations with international gold reserves in international markets, an action that no government has done before and is “a terrible signal for the Bolivian economy,” according to analysts.

The bank’s 2022 Initial Public Rendering of Accounts report realizes that among the tasks the institution has this year is “continuing the procedures for the approval of the proposed regulations that allow the strengthening of international reserves ,” a proposal whose purpose is “to authorize the bank to purchase nationally produced gold and carry out financial operations with international gold reserves in international markets

During the accountability report, the president of the bank, Edwin Rojas, said that this year, in an environment of high volatility and uncertainty caused by the pandemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine, the net international reserves will continue to be invested, taking precautions for the security and liquidity of these investments.

“We are going to continue our efforts so that our bills to strengthen international reserves can be approved. On is the bill we have proposed during the past administration that seeks the purchase of nationally produced gold and allows a more modern management of reserves, strengthening their level as well as the liquidity they must have so that our economy can carry out its international financial operations without any limit,” Rojas said.

The economist Napoleon Pacheco said: “That the central bank is deciding to make use of the gold reserves expresses a much more serious situation than the one we know. The situation must be extremely complicated to reach that level, because no government before the Movement for Socialism in critical situations proposed using the country’s gold reserves. It is a bad sign for the Bolivian economy.”

To “sell the gold or leave it as a guarantee or collateral abroad,” Pacheco added, requires not only a law passed in the Legislative Assembly, where the Movement for Socialism has a majority, but also international certification of the degree of purity of each ingot. “Without that requirement, only clandestine operations can be carried out,” he said.

The reserves as of May 9 last total $4.596 billion, 56.6% of which ($2,602 billion) is in gold .

“In the net international reserves, what counts is cash, and that cash is currently not enough for two months of imports,” Pacheco said.

On March 15, the financial analyst Jaime Dunn indicated that there are three ways to attract more foreign currency to the country (for the payment of foreign debt and for imports): increase exports, which cannot be done due to the recently approved restrictions; borrow more, through bilateral and multilateral credits and bonds, “in which we are doing very badly”; and the attraction of foreign investment, which the country is not achieving either.

“If this gets more complicated, what they are going to have to do is start selling gold . I hope they don’t get to that , because if that’s the case, they would show that they really are in greater trouble,” Dunn said.

The intention to buy local gold to increase reserves is not new. In 2010 the government created the Bolivian Gold Co. to exploit part of the gold wealth. The state company also had the objective of selling the mineral to the central bank, something that was already authorized in 2011, through Law 175 . At the moment there are no known details of the amount of gold that the bank sold in these years.

END

At least this is a start: Zimbabwe is to introduce gold coins to escape soaring inflation. Chris Powell is correct:

why not back your currency with gold produced from the ground. They have enormous reserves but high inflation cannot get it out of the ground

(Herald/Zimbabwe/ChrisPowell)

Zimbabwe to introduce gold coins to offer escape from soaring inflation

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-06-27 20:34Section: Daily Dispatches

Good grief, People! You’re sitting on huge gold reserves. Make your paper money convertible to gold at a fixed rate and hold the rate. It won’t be so hard when you can mine your own money. The rest of the world won’t help you, and shouldn’t help you when you so easily can help yourself.

* * *

From The Herald
Harare, Zimbabwe
Monday, June 27, 2022

The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe says it will be introducing gold coins as part of measures to ensure that investors and the public have alternative means to preserve value, cushioning them from the negative impact of resurgent inflation in the economy.

According to the RBZ, the gold coins will be minted at the Fidelity Gold Refineries and will be available through normal banking channels.

Gold is considered a safe haven against inflation and a gold coin is made mostly or entirely of gold, while most gold bullion coins are pure gold. …

The proposition has the potential to have a stabilizing effect on the economy if conducted properly given the stability and value storage associated with gold.

Zimbabwe’s inflation increased to 191.6% and 30.7% on a year-on-year and month-on-month basis for June 2022, respectively, which is far astride from government projections of achieving a 30% inflation rate by the end of the year. …

… For the remainder of the report:

RBZ to introduce gold coins, hikes interest rates

END

4. OTHER GOLD STORIES

Chinese gold imports via HK surge in May | Kitco News

Inbox

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-06-28/Chinese-gold-imports-via-HK-surge-in-May.html

Chinese gold imports via HK surge in May

Editor’s Note: With so much market volatility, stay on top of daily news! Get caught up in minutes with our speedy summary of today’s must-read news and expert opinions. Sign up here!

(Kitco News) – China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong rose 58.3% in May from the previous month, Hong Kong’s official data showed on Monday. This comes as pandemic-related curbs were relaxed in major cities. Net imports stood at 8.281 tonnes, according to the Census and Statistics Department. Imports were, however, down 62% year-on-year.

Total gold imports via Hong Kong rose nearly 47% to 14.13 tonnes from April. The rise in May could reflect some of the restrictions being eased in Shanghai and Beijing, said StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell. China imports gold also via Shanghai and Beijing, so Hong Kong data may not provide a complete picture of the country’s gold purchases. Shanghai and Beijing began to gradually loosen Covid-curbs by late May.

Swiss customs data, however, showed last week that its shipments of gold to China fell in May. Throughout May, gold changed hands in China and prices ranged from $10 an ounce below global spot prices to on par with the benchmark.

Gold is trading 0.16% higher on Tuesday at $1825/oz. The yellow metal has been in full consolidation mode recently and the current consolidation high stands at $1879.45/oz. This all comes despite the strong USD over the few months.

5.OTHER COMMODITIES

END

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 6.6947

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.6962

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 189.45 PTS OR 0.95%

2. Nikkei closed UP 178.20% OR 0.66%

3. Europe stocks ALL CLOSED ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 103.81/Euro FALLS TO 1.0577

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.224/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 136.214/JAPANESE FALLING APART WITH YEN FALTERING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN -// OFF- SHORE DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +1.665%/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 3.68% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 2.74%…

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.89//

3j Gold at $1824.90 silver at: 21.24 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1/2 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 52.82

3m oil into the 111 dollar handle for WTI and 117 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 136.21DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9556– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 1.0107well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.245 UP 5 BASIS PTS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.352 UP 5 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 16.65

Futures, Commodities Jump After China Cuts Quarantine

TUESDAY, JUN 28, 2022 – 08:00 AM

US stock futures rebounded from Monday’s modest losses and traded near session highs after China reduced quarantine times for inbound travelers by half – to seven days of centralized quarantine and three days of health monitoring at home – the biggest shift yet in a Covid-19 policy that has left the world’s second-largest economy isolated as it continues to try and eliminate the virus. The move, which fueled optimism about stronger economic growth and boosted appetite for both commodities and risk assets, sent S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 contracts higher by 0.6% each at 7:15 a.m. in New York, setting up heavyweight technology stocks for a rebound. Mining and energy shares led gains in Europe’s Stoxx 600 and an Asian equity index erased losses to climb for a fourth session. 10Y TSY yields extended their move higher rising to 3.25% or about +5bps on the session, while the dollar and bitcoin were flat, and oil and commodity-linked currencies strengthened.

In premarket trading, the biggest mover was Kezar Life Sciences which soared 85% after reporting positive results for its lupus drug. On the other end, Robinhood shares fell 3.2%, paring a rally yesterday sparked by news that FTX is exploring whether to buy the company. In a statement, FTX head Sam Bankman-Fried said he is excited about the firm’s business prospects, but “there are no active M&A conversations with Robinhood.” Here are some of the other most notable premarket movers”

Playtika (PLTK US) shares rallied 11% in premarket trading after a report that private equity firm Joffre Capital agreed to acquire a majority stake in the gaming company from a Chinese investment group for $21 a share.
Nike (NKE US) shares fell 2.3% in US premarket trading, with analysts reducing their price targets after the company gave a downbeat forecast for gross margin and said it was being cautious in its outlook for the China market.
Spirit Airlines (SAVE US) shares rise as much as 5% in US premarket trading after JetBlue boosted its all-cash bid in response to an increased offer by rival suitor Frontier in the days before a crucial shareholder vote.
Snowflake (SNOW US) rises 3.3% in US premarket trading after Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold, saying its valuation is now “back to reality” and offers a good entry point given the software firm’s long-term targets.
Sutro Biopharma (STRO US) shares rise 34% in US premarket trading after the company and Astellas said they will collaborate to advance development of immunostimulatory antibody-drug conjugates, which are a modality for treating tumors and designed to boost anti-cancer activity.
State Street (STT US) shares could be in focus after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to hold, while lowering EPS estimates and price targets across interest rate sensitive coverage of trust banks and online brokers.
US bank stocks may be volatile during Tuesday’s trading session after the lenders announced a wave of dividend increases following last week’s successful stress test results.

Stock rallies have proved fleeting this year as higher borrowing costs to fight inflation restrain economic activity in a range of nations. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde affirmed plans for an initial quarter-point increase in interest rates in July, but said policy makers are ready to step up action to tackle record inflation if warranted. Some analysts also argue still-bullish earnings estimates are too optimistic. Earnings revisions are a risk with the US economy set to slow next year, though China emerging from Covid strictures could act as a global buffer, according to Lorraine Tan, Morningstar director of equity research.

“You got a US slowdown in 2023 in terms of growth, but you have China hopefully coming out of its lockdowns,” Tan said on Bloomberg Radio.

In Europe, stocks are well bid with most European indexes up over 1%. Euro Stoxx 50 rose as much as 1.2% before drifting off the highs. Miners, energy and auto names outperform. The Stoxx 600 Basic Resources sub-index rises as much as 3.5% led by heavyweights Rio Tinto and Anglo American, as well as Polish copper producer KGHM and Finnish forestry companies Stora Enso and UPM- Kymmene. Iron ore and copper reversed losses after China eased its quarantine rules for new arrivals, while oil gained for a third session amid risks of supply disruptions. Iron ore in Singapore rose more than 4% after being firmly lower earlier in the session, while copper and other base metals also turned higher. Here are the biggest European movers:

Luxury stocks climb boosted by an easing of Covid-19 quarantine rules in the key market of China. LVMH shares rise as much as 2.5%, Richemont +3.1%, Kering +3%, Moncler +3%
Energy and mining stocks are the best-performing groups in the rising Stoxx Europe 600 index amid commodity gains. Shell shares rise as much as 3.8%, TotalEnergies +2.7%, BP +3.4%, Rio Tinto +4.6%, Glencore +3.9%
Banco Santander shares rise as much as 1.8% after a report that the Spanish bank has hired Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs for its bid to buy Mexico’s Banamex.
GN Store Nord shares gain as much as 4.2% after Nordea resumes coverage on the hearing devices company with a buy rating.
Swedish Match shares rise as much as 4% as Philip Morris International’s offer document regarding its bid for the company has been approved and registered by the Swedish FSA.
Wise shares decline as much as 15%, erasing earlier gains after the fintech firm reported full- year earnings. Citi said the results were “mixed,” with strong revenue growth being offset by lower profitability.
UK water stocks decline as JPMorgan says it is turning cautious on the sector on the view that future regulated returns could surprise to the downside, in a note cutting Severn Trent to underweight. Severn Trent shares fall as much as 6%, Pennon -7.7%, United Utilities -2.3%
Akzo Nobel falls as much as 4.5% in Amsterdam trading after the paint maker announced the appointment of former Sulzer leader Greg Poux-Guillaumeas chief executive officer, succeeding Thierry Vanlancker.
Danske Bank shares fall as much as 4%, as JPMorgan cut its rating on the stock to underweight, saying in a note that risks related to Swedish property will likely create some “speed bumps” for Nordic banks though should be manageable.

In the Bavarian Alps, limiting Russia’s profits from rising energy prices that fuel its war in Ukraine have been among the main topics of discussion at a Group of Seven summit. G-7 leaders agreed that they want ministers to urgently discuss and evaluate how the prices of Russian oil and gas can be curbed.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks erased earlier losses as China’s move to ease quarantine rules for inbound travelers bolstered sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.6% after falling by a similar magnitude. The benchmark is set for a fourth day of gains, led by the energy and utilities sectors. BHP and Toyota contributed the most to the gauge’s advance, while China’s technology firms were among the biggest losers as a plan by Tencent’s major backer to further cut its stake fueled concern of more profit-taking following a strong rally. A move by Beijing to cut quarantine times for inbound travelers by half is helping cement gains which have made Chinese shares the world’s best-performing major equity market this month. The nation’s stocks are approaching a bull market even as their recent rise pushes them to overbought levels.

Still, the threat of a sharp slowdown in the world’s largest economy may pose a threat to the outlook. “US recession risk is still there and I think that’ll obviously have impact on global sectors,” Lorraine Tan, director of equity research at Morningstar, said on Bloomberg TV. “Even if we do get some China recovery in 2023, which could be a buffer for this region, it’s not going to offset the US or global recession.” Most stock benchmarks in the region finished higher following China’s move to ease its travel rules. Main equity measures in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Australia rose while those in Taiwan and India fell. Overall, Asian stocks are on course to complete a monthly decline of about 4%.

Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China pledged to keep monetary policy supportive to help the nation’s economy. It signaled that stimulus would likely focus on boosting credit rather than lowering interest rates.

Japanese stocks gained as investors adjusted positions heading into the end of the quarter. The Topix Index rose 1.1% to 1,907.38 as of the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 advanced 0.7% to 27,049.47. Toyota Motor contributed most to the Topix’s gain, increasing 2.2%. Out of 2,170 shares in the index, 1,736 rose and 374 fell, while 60 were unchanged. “As the end of the April-June quarter approaches, there is a tendency for institutional investors to rebalance,” said Norihiro Fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley. “It will be easier to buy into cheap stocks, which is a factor that will support the market in terms of supply and demand.”

India’s benchmark stock gauge ended flat after trading lower for most of the session as investors booked some profits after a three-day rally. The S&P BSE Sensex closed little changed at 53,177.45 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index gained 0.1%. Six of the the 19 sector sub-gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. dropped, led by consumer durables companies, while oil & gas firms were top performers. ICICI Bank was among the prominent decliners on the Sensex, falling 1%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 17 rose and 13 fell.

In rates, fixed income sold off as treasuries remained under pressure with the 10Y yield rising as high as 3.26%, following steeper declines for euro-zone and UK bond markets for second straight day and after two ugly US auctions on Monday. Yields across the curve are higher by 2bp-5bp led by the 7-year ahead of the $40 billion auction. In Europe, several 10-year yields are 10bp higher on the day after comments by an ECB official spurred money markets to price in more policy tightening. WI 7Y yield at around 3.32% exceeds 7-year auction stops since March 2010 and compares with 2.777% last month. Monday’s 5-year auction drew a yield more than 3bp higher than its yield in pre-auction trading just before the bidding deadline, a sign dealers underestimated demand. Traders attributed the poor results to factors including short base eroded by last week’s rally, recently elevated market volatility discouraging market-making, and sub-par participation during what is a popular vacation week in the US. Focal points for US session include 7-year note auction at 1pm ET; a 5-year auction Monday produced notably weak demand metrics.

The belly of the German curve underperformed as markets focus on hawkish comments from ECB officials: 5y bobl yields rose 10 bps near 1.46%, red pack euribors dropped 10-13 ticks and ECB-dated OIS rates priced in 163 basis points of tightening by year end.

In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index is near flat as the greenback reversed earlier losses versus all of its Group-of-10 peers apart from the yen while commodity currencies were the best performers. The euro rose above $1.06 before paring gains after ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said the central bank should consider a first rate hike of more than a quarter-point if there are signs that high inflation readings are feeding expectations. Money markets ECB raised tightening wagers after his remarks. ECB President Lagarde later affirmed plans for an initial quarter-point increase in interest rates in July but said policy makers are ready to step up action to tackle record inflation if warranted. The ECB is likely to drain cash from the banking system to offset any bond purchases made to restrain borrowing costs for indebted euro-area members, Reuters reported, citing two sources it didn’t identify.

Elsewhere, the pound drifted against the dollar and euro after underperforming Monday, with focus on quarter-end flows, lingering Brexit risks and the UK economic outlook. Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon due to speak later on how she plans to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence by the end of next year. The yen gave up an Asia session gain versus the dollar as US equity futures reversed losses. The Australian dollar rose after China cut its mandatory quarantine period to 10 days from three weeks for inbound visitors in its latest Covid-19 guidance. JPY was the weakest in G-10, drifting below 136 to the USD.

In commodities, oil rose for a third day with global output threats compounding already red-hot markets for physical supplies and as broader financial sentiment improved. Brent crude breached $117 a barrel on Tuesday, but some of the most notable moves in recent days have been in more specialist market gauges. A contract known as the Dated-to-Frontline swap — an indicator of the strength in the key North Sea market underpinning much of the world’s crude pricing — hit a record of more than $5 a barrel. The rally comes amid growing supply outages in Libya and Ecuador, exacerbating ongoing market tightness.

Oil prices also rose Tuesday as broader sentiment was boosted by China’s move to cut in half the time new arrivals must spend in isolation, the biggest shift yet in its pandemic policy. Meanwhile, the G-7 tasked ministers to urgently discuss an oil price cap on Russia.

Finally, the prospect of additional supply from two of OPEC’s key producers also looks limited. On Monday Reuters reported that French President Emmanuel Macron told his US counterpart Joe Biden that the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are already pumping almost as much as they can.

In the battered metals space, LME nickel rose 2.7%, outperforming peers and leading broad-based gains in the base-metals complex. Spot gold rises roughly $3 to trade near $1,826/oz

Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include the FHFA house price index for April, the advance goods trade balance and preliminary wholesale inventories for May, as well as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for June and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Lane, Elderson and Panetta, the Fed’s Daly, and BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe. Finally, NATO leaders will be meeting in Madrid.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 3,922.50
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 417.65
MXAP up 0.4% to 162.36
MXAPJ up 0.4% to 539.85
Nikkei up 0.7% to 27,049.47
Topix up 1.1% to 1,907.38
Hang Seng Index up 0.9% to 22,418.97
Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,409.21
Sensex down 0.3% to 52,990.39
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 6,763.64
Kospi up 0.8% to 2,422.09
German 10Y yield little changed at 1.62%
Euro little changed at $1.0587
Brent Futures up 1.4% to $116.65/bbl
Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,828.78
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.89

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

In Tokyo’s financial circles, the trade is known as the widow- maker. The bet is simple: that the Bank of Japan, under growing pressure to stabilize the yen as it sinks to a 24-year low, will have to abandon its 0.25% cap on benchmark bond yields and let them soar, just as they already have in the US, Canada, Europe and across much of the developing world
Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco may leave his post in October, paving the way for the appointment of a high profile executive close to Premier Mario Draghi, daily Il Foglio reported
NATO is set to label China a “systemic challenge” when it outlines its new policy guidelines this week, while also highlighting Beijing’s deepening partnership with Russia, according to people familiar with the matter
The PBOC pledged to keep monetary policy supportive to aid the economy’s recovery, while signaling that stimulus would likely focus on boosting credit rather than lowering interest rates

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were mixed with the region partially shrugging off the lacklustre handover from the US. ASX 200 was kept afloat with energy leading the gains amongst the commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with upside capped by resistance above the 27K level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were pressured amid weakness in tech and lingering default concerns as Sunac plans discussions on extending a CNY bond and with Evergrande facing a wind-up petition.

Top Asian News

China is to cut quarantine time for international travellers, according to state media cited by Reuters.
Shanghai Disneyland (DIS) will reopen on June 30th, according to Reuters.
PBoC injected CNY 110bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 100bln net daily injection.
China’s state planner official said China faces new challenges in stabilising jobs and prices due to COVID and risks from the Ukraine crisis, while the NDRC added they will not resort to flood-like stimulus but will roll out tools in its policy reserve in a timely way to cope with challenges, according to Reuters.
China’s state planner NDRC says China is to cut gasoline and diesel retail prices by CNY 320/tonne and CNY 310/tonne respectively from June 29th.
BoJ may have been saddled with as much as JPY 600bln in unrealised losses on its JGB holdings earlier this month, as a widening gap between domestic and overseas monetary policy pushed yields higher and prices lower, according to Nikkei.

European bourses are firmer as sentiment picked up heading into the cash open amid encouraging Chinese COVID headlines. Sectors are mostly in the green with no clear theme. Base metals and Energy reside as the current winners and commodities feel a boost from China’s COVID updates. Stateside, US equity futures saw a leg higher in tandem with global counterparts, with the RTY narrowly outperforming. Twitter (TWTR) in recent weeks provided Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk with historical tweet data and access to its so-called fire hose of tweets, according to WSJ sources.

Top European News

UK lawmakers voted 295-221 to support the Northern Ireland Protocol bill in the first of many parliamentary tests it will face during the months ahead, according to Reuters.
Scotland’s First Minister Sturgeon will set out a plan today for holding a second Scottish Independence Referendum, according to BBC News.
ECB’s Kazaks Says Worth Looking at Larger Rate Hike in July
G-7 Latest: Leaders Want Urgent Evaluation of Energy Price Caps
Ex- UBS Staffer Wants Payout for Exposing $10 Billion Swiss Stash
SocGen Blames Clifford Chance in $483 Million Gold Suit
GSK’s £40 Billion Consumer Arm Picks Citi, UBS as Brokers
Russian Industry Faces Code Crisis as Critical Software Pulled

ECB

ECB’s Lagarde said inflation in the euro area is undesirably high and it is projected to stay that way for some time to comeFragmentation tool, via the ECB.
ECB’s Kazaks said 25bps in July and 50bps in September is the base case, via Bloomberg TV. Kazaks said it is worth looking at a 50bps hike in July and front-loading hikes might be reasonable. Fragmentation risks should not stand in the way of monetary policy normalisation. If necessary, the ECB will come up with tools to address fragmentation.
ECB’s Wunsch said he is comfortable with a 50bps hike in September; adds that 200bps of hikes are needed relatively fast, and anti-fragmentation tool should have no limits if market moves are unwarranted, via Reuters.
Bank of Italy said Governor Visco’s resignation is not on the table, according to a spokesperson cited by Reuters.

Fixed Income

Bond reversal continues amidst buoyant risk sentiment, hawkish ECB commentary and supply.
Bunds lose two more big figures between 146.80 peak and 144.85 trough, Gilts down to 112.06 from 112.86 at best and 10 year T-note retreats within 117-01/116-14 range

DXY regroups on spot month end as yields rally and rebalancing factors offer support – index within 103.750-104.020 range vs Monday’s 103.660 low.
Euro continues to encounter resistance above 1.0600 via 55 DMA (1.0614 today); Yen undermined by latest bond retreat and renewed risk appetite – Usd/Jpy eyes 136.00 from low 135.00 area and close to 134.50 yesterday.
Aussie breaches technical and psychological resistance with encouragement from China lifting or easing more Covid restrictions – Aud/Usd through 10 DMA at 0.6954.
Loonie and Norwegian Krona boosted by firm rebound in oil as France fans supply concerns due to limited Saudi and UAE production capacity – Usd/Cad sub-1.2850 and Eur/Nok under 10.3500.
Yuan receives another PBoC liquidity boost to compliment positive developments on the pandemic front, but Rand hampered by latest power cut warning issued by SA’s Eskom

Commodities

WTI and Brent futures were bolstered in early European hours amid encouragement seen from China’s loosening of COVID restrictions.
Spot gold is uneventful, around USD 1,825/oz in what has been a sideways session for the bullion since the reopening overnight.
Base metals are posting broad gains across the complex – with LME copper back above USD 8,500/t amid China-related optimism.

US Event Calendar

08:30: May Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$105b, prior -$105.9b, revised -$106.7b
08:30: May Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 2.1%, prior 2.2%
- May Retail Inventories MoM, est. 1.6%, prior 0.7%
09:00: April S&P CS Composite-20 YoY, est. 21.15%, prior 21.17%
09:00: April S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. 1.95%, prior 2.42%
09:00: April FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 1.4%, prior 1.5%
10:00: June Conf. Board Consumer Confidenc, est. 100.0, prior 106.4
- Conf. Board Expectations, prior 77.5; Present Situation, prior 149.6
10:00: June Richmond Fed Index, est. -5, prior -9

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It’s been a landmark night in our household as last night was the first time the 4-year-old twins slept without night nappies. So my task this morning after I send this to the publishers is to leave for the office before they all wake up so that any accidents are not my responsibility. Its hopefully the end of a near 7-year stretch of nappies being constantly around in their many different guises and states of unpleasantness. Maybe give it another 30-40 years and they’ll be back.

Talking of unpleasantness, as we near the end of what’s generally been an awful H1 for markets, yesterday saw the relief rally from last week stall out, with another bond selloff and an equity performance that fluctuated between gains and losses before the S&P 500 (-0.30%) ended in negative territory.

In terms of the specific moves, sovereign bonds lost ground on both sides of the Atlantic, with yields on 10yr Treasuries up by +7.0bps following their -9.6bps decline from the previous week. That advance was led by real rates (+9.6bps), which look to have been supported by some decent second-tier data releases from the US during May yesterday. The preliminary reading for US durable goods orders surprised on the upside with a +0.7% gain (vs. +0.1% expected). Core capital goods orders also surprised on the upside with a +0.8% advance (vs. +0.2% expected). And pending home sales were unexpectedly up by +0.7% (vs. -4.0% expected). Collectively that gave investors a bit more confidence that growth was still in decent shape last month, which is something that will also offer the Fed more space to continue their campaign of rate hikes into H2. This morning 10yr USTs yields have eased -2.45 bps to 3.17% while 2yr yields (-4 bps) have also moved lower to 3.08%, as we go to press.

Staying at the front end, when it comes to those rate hikes, if you look at Fed funds futures they show that investors are still only expecting them to continue for another 9 months, with the peak rate in March or April 2023 before markets are pricing in at least a full 25bps rate cut by end-2023 from that point. I pointed out in my chart of the day yesterday (link here) that the median time historically from the last hike of the cycle to the first cut was only 4 months, and last time it was only 7 months between the final hike in December 2018 and the next cut in July 2019. So it wouldn’t be historically unusual if Fed funds did follow that pattern whether that fits my view or not.

Over in Europe yesterday there was an even more aggressive rise in yields, with those on 10yr bunds (+10.9bps), OATs (+11.0bps) and BTPs (+9.1bps) all rising on the day as they bounced back from their even larger declines over the previous week. That came as investors pared back their bets on a more dovish ECB that they’d made following the more negative tone last week, and the rate priced in by the December ECB meeting rose by +8.5bps on the day.

For equities, the major indices generally fluctuated between gains and losses through the day. The S&P 500 followed that pattern and ultimately fell -0.30%, which follows its best daily performance in over 2 years on Friday Quarter-end rebalancing flows seem set to drive markets back-and-forth price this week. Even with the decline yesterday, the index is +6.36% higher since its closing low less than a couple of weeks ago. And over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.52%) posted a decent advance, although that masked regional divergences, including losses for the CAC 40 (-0.43%) and the FTSE MIB (-0.86%).

Energy stocks strongly outperformed in the index, supported by a further rise in oil prices that left both Brent crude (+1.74%) and WTI (+1.81%) higher on the day. G7 ministers reportedly agreed to explore a cap on Russian gas and oil exports, with the official mandate expected to be announced today, but it would take time for any mechanism to be developed. The impact on global oil supply is not clear: if Russia retaliates supply could go down, if this enables other third parties to import more Russian oil supply could go up. Elsewhere, political unrest in Libya and Ecuador could simultaneously hit oil supply. In early Asian trading, oil prices continue to move higher, with Brent futures up +1.13% at $116.39/bbl and WTI futures gaining +1% to just above the $110/bbl level.

Asian equity markets are struggling a bit this morning. The Hang Seng (-1.00%) is the largest underperformer amid a weakening in Chinese tech stocks whilst the Nikkei (-0.15%), Shanghai Composite (-0.15%) and CSI (-0.19%) are trading in negative territory in early trade. Elsewhere, the Kospi (-0.05%) is just below the flatline. US stock futures are slipping with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.12%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.18%) both slightly lower.

In central bank news, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Yi Gang pledged to provide additional monetary support to the economy to recover from Covid outbreaks and lockdowns and other stresses. In a rare interview conducted in English, the central bank chief did caution though that the real interest rate is low thereby indicating limited room for large-scale monetary easing.

Turning to geopolitical developments, the G7 summit continued in Germany yesterday, and in a statement it said they would “further intensify our economic measures against Russia”. Separately, NATO announced that it will increase the number of high readiness forces to over 300,000, with the alliance’s leaders set to gather in Madrid from today. And we’re also expecting a new round of nuclear talks with Iran to take place at some point this week, something Henry mentioned in his latest Mapping Markets out yesterday (link here), which if successful could in time pave the way for Iranian oil to return to the global market.

Finally, whilst there were some decent May data releases from the US, the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing activity index for June fell to a 2-year low of -17.7 (vs. -6.5 expected).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include Germany’s GfK consumer confidence for July, French consumer confidence for June, whilst in the US there’s the FHFA house price index for April, the advance goods trade balance and preliminary wholesale inventories for May, as well as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for June and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Lane, Elderson and Panetta, the Fed’s Daly, and BoE Deputy Governor Cunliffe. Finally, NATO leaders will be meeting in Madrid.

TUESDAY /MONDAY NIGHT

3 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

3B JAPAN

A big story: the Bank of Japan has now crossed the Rubicon and owns more than 50% of all bonds as they defend the yield curve. Something must suffer and that is the value of the yen. Sooner or later, the owners of the other 50% will bail leaving the country in shambles.

(zerohedge)

“The Rubicon Has Been Crossed”: The BOJ Now Owns More Than 50% Of All Japanese Bonds

MONDAY, JUN 27, 2022 – 09:35 PM

A little over three years ago, the Bank of Japan crossed a historic milestone when we reported that the central bank had become a top-10 shareholder in 50% of all Japanese companies. Since then, the central bank’s equity stake across Japanese corporations has only grown.

One week ago, we also reported that the BOJ was on the verge of crossing the final “50%” Rubicon, when as consequence of the latest surge in bond buying by Kuroda’s central bank meant to prevent the bank’s Yield Curve Control from collapsing, the BoJ was brought to a place it almost certainly never envisaged when it started QE as a “temporary” measure back in 2001 — owning virtually half of the JGB market.

As Bloomberg’s Simon White said last week, “we are in uncharted territory as no other major central bank has crossed this threshold before.“

He continued:

The BoJ could pass the 50% threshold as early as this week. That would be crossing the Rubicon. However you slice it or dice it, the BoJ will be the JGB market. What this means over the long term we’ll eventually find out. But it’s not a big leap to guess that private JGB holders — both domestic and foreign — will become less comfortable in a market with such lopsided ownership.

Well, as of today, this final threshold has also been crossed, thanks to the recent burst of YCC-defending debt monetization which reached a mindbogglging 11 trillion in the last week…

BoJ weekly purchases of government bonds. Holy moly pic.twitter.com/pz6e9KRn4z— Duncan Lamont (@DuncanLamont2) June 27, 2022

… and as Japan’s Nikkei reports, the share of Japanese government bonds held by the Bank of Japan just topped 50%, hitting a record Ponzi high.

According to Nikkei calculations, the BOJ purchased JGBs worth 14.8 trillion yen ($110 billion) in June, surpassing the 11.1 trillion yen purchased in November 2002, its largest monthly total. According to the QUICK database, the outstanding value of long-term JGBs as of June 20 totaled 1,021.1 trillion yen, of which the BOJ held 514.9 trillion yen on a face-value basis. That translates to 50.4% of the total amount outstanding, up from 50.0% in February to March 2021.

As we explained a few weeks ago, the BOJ has been buying up the majority of the JGBs on the market, an unusual situation that has caused distortions in the bond market including a deeply inverted yield curve.

Putting the BOJ’s unprecedented bond buying spree in context, the central bank’s JGB holdings were “only” in the 10% range when Gov. Kuroda started the massive monetary easing program in 2013. Its holdings have continued to grow as the ultraloose policy has continued. At this rate, all else equal, the BOJ will own the entire bond market in another decade or so.

Several years ago, the IMF calculated that the BOJ holding around 40% of the bond market would lead to a broken market. Well, it is now 50%+ and there are days when not a single trade crosses – the definition of a broken market.

The problem for the BOJ is that it can’t stop buying now… or ever: According to estimates by the Japan Center for Economic Research, the BOJ will need to increase its JGB holdings by 120 trillion yen from the current level of over 500 trillion yen to keep long-term interest rates at 0.25%. The central bank’s JGB holdings are quickly approaching and are expected to exceed 60% of total.

Until now, the BOJ has concentrated on specific JGBs, holding 87.6% of newly issued 10-year JGBs, a measure of long-term interest rates. However, at this rate it will soon run out of 10Y paper to buy and will be forced to move left and right on the ccurve.

Meanwhile, even though bonds with longer maturities have higher interest rates, as the BOJ has focused on the yield on 10-year JGBs to suppress interest rates, yields on JGBs with seven to nine years to maturity are now higher than those on 10-year JGBs.

As discussed on several prior occasions, this month some trades occurred at yields above the BOJ’s upper limit of 0.25% — a situation where JGBs were trading at a lower price than the level at which the BOJ promised to buy them — effectively breaching the bank’s yield curve control. This means that market participants believe the BOJ will soon no longer be able to maintain the current interest rate control measures, known as yield curve control. A failure to defend YCC could lead to a catastrophic move lower in the JGB market, and spark a hyperinflation collapse of the Japanese yen, and the entire economy.

The BOJ’s bond-buying stands out compared with other central banks’ moves. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s holdings of government bonds were in the 20% range at the end of March, and it began quantitative tightening in June to reduce its holdings of government bonds and other assets. The European Central Bank’s ratio is currently in the 30% range. The ECB will end its quantitative easing program of purchasing government bonds and other assets in July.

At the same time, and as also discussed extensively, the widening interest rate gap between Japan and the U.S. and Japan and Europe has prompted a fall in the value of the yen. The Japanese currency fell to a 24-year low of 136 against the dollar earlier this month. It will fall much lower if the BOJ defends the 0.25% YCC barrier “whatever it takes”, as the resultant liquidity needed to prevent yields from spiking will continue crashing the yen.

Naturally, with the BOJ buying up every piece of paper it can find, JGBs held by private financial institutions have been rapidly declining: as of the end of March, banks and other deposit-taking institutions held 11.4% of the total, while insurance and pension funds held 23.2%. This means that the BOJ is now taking on even more risk of incurring losses if long-term interest rates rise and JGB prices drop.

Japan’s three megabanks hold a total of over 70 trillion yen in JGBs. The average maturity is 2.8 years for Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, 2.8 years for Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, and 1.2 years for Mizuho Financial Group. In recent years, these banks have been investing mainly in bonds with shorter maturities to prepare for rising interest rates.

As the Nikkei concludes, the BOJ’s strategy of holding half of the JGBs could be perceived as its way of filling the budget deficit. “There is also a risk that the government’s fiscal discipline could be loosened by the central bank keeping interest rates low” the Nikkei notes, adding that “the government needs to work on reforms to stimulate economic growth, to break away from its dependence on the BOJ.”

To which all we can say is “it’s far too late for that” and instead we recommend the BOJ – and Japanese savers – panic.

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/VACCINE MANDATE

China shortens travel quarantine times for just one week for international travelers and thus easing conditions

(zerohedge)

China Shortens Travel Quarantine In COVID Zero Shift

TUESDAY, JUN 28, 2022 – 07:38 AM

China unexpectedly slashed quarantine times for international travelers, to just one week, which suggests Beijing is easing COVID zero policies. The nationwide relaxation of pandemic restrictions led investors to buy Chinese stocks.

Inbound travelers will only quarantine for ten days, down from three weeks, which shows local authorities are easing draconian curbs on travel and economic activity as they worry about slumping economic growth sparked by restrictive COVID zero policies earlier this year that locked down Beijing and Shanghai for months (Shanghai finally lifted its lockdown measures on May 31).

“This relaxation sends the signal that the economy comes first … It is a sign of importance of the economy at this point,” Li Changmin, Managing Director at Snowball Wealth in Guangzhou, told Bloomberg.

At the peak of the COVID outbreak, many residents in China’s largest city, Shanghai, were quarantined in their homes for two months, while international travelers were under “hard quarantines” for three weeks. The strict curbs appear to have suppressed the outbreak, but the tradeoff came at the cost of faltering economic growth.

The announcement of the shorter quarantine period suggests a potentially more optimistic outlook for the Chinese economy. Bullish price action lifted CSI 300 Index by 1%, led by tourism-related stocks (LVMH shares rose as much as 2.5%, Richemont +3.1%, Kering +3%, Moncler +3%).

“The reduction of travel restrictions will be positive for the luxury sector, and may boost consumer sentiment and confidence following months of lockdowns in China’s biggest cities,” Barclays analysts Carole Madjo wrote in a note.

CSI 300 is up 19% from April’s low, nearing bull market territory.

Jane Foley, a strategist at Rabobank in London, commented that “this news suggests that perhaps the authorities will not be as stringent with Covid controls as has been expected.”

“The news also coincides with reports that the PBOC is pledging to keep monetary policy supportive,” Foley pointed out, referring to Governor Yi Gang’s latest comment.
She said, “this suggests a potentially more optimistic outlook for the Chinese economy, which is good news generally for commodity exporters such as Australia and all of China’s trading partners.”

Even though the move is the right step in the right direction, Joerg Wuttke, head of the European Chamber of Commerce in China, said, “the country cannot open its borders completely due to relatively low vaccination rates … This, in conjunction with a slow introduction of mRNA vaccines, means that China may have to maintain a restricted immigration policy beyond the summer of 2023.”

Alvin Tan, head of Asia currency strategy in Singapore for RBC Markets, also said shortening quarantine time for inbound visitors shouldn’t be a gamechanger, and “there’s nothing to say that it won’t be raised tomorrow.”

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS/

ECB

This is fail miserably and in short order yields from the CLUB MED boys will rise hugely

(zerohedge)

ECB To Launch “First Line” Of Bond Crash Defense On Friday, Same Day QE Ends

TUESDAY, JUN 28, 2022 – 12:00 PM

For all those curious what the ECB’s “anti-spread tool”, meant to bring soaring Italian yields tighter in a time of rising rates and QT even as Europe scrambles to offset record inflation by tightening financial conditions (as discussed most recently in “The ECB Has A Huge Dilemma: Price Stability Or Bail Out Nations“), we got a small update earlier today when ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the central bank will activate one part of the bond-purchasing firepower it’s earmarked as “a first line of defense” against a possible debt-market crisis this coming Friday… which just “coincidentally” happens to be the day the ECB’s QE ends!

“We have decided to apply this flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio as of 1 July,” Lagarde said Tuesday in a speech in Sintra, Portugal, where the ECB is holding its annual retreat.

“We will ensure that the orderly transmission of our policy stance throughout the euro area is preserved,” she said. “We will address every obstacle that may pose a threat to our price-stability mandate.”

As Bloomberg notes, the availability of pandemic reinvestments has been touted as an initial crisis-fighting tool since December, though the ECB didn’t choose to resort to that option until an emergency meeting on June 15 that followed a surge in Italian yields.

Unfortunately, that’s as much detail as we are going to get, because once again there was generous use of the word flexibility”, this time in the context to how reinvestments from the ECB’s €1.7 trillion ($1.8 trillion) pandemic bond-buying portfolio are allocated, and which will be aimed at curbing unwarranted turmoil in government bonds as interest rates are lifted from record lows to curb unprecedented inflation.

In other words, just as we jokingly suggested some time ago, the ECB will do QT on even days, QE on odd ones.

Meanwhile, adding to the QE now, QT tomorrow confusion, net buying under the ECB’s original asset-purchase program is also set to end on Friday, exposing the euro zone’s more-indebted nations to speculative attacks by investors, similar to the blowout in Italian yields already observed at the start of June.

But wait, there’s more, because while Europe is desperate for deflationary gale force winds to blow away the runaway inflation that has put an end to the ECB’s various easing deus ex machinas, many are convinced that the ECB is hiking into yet another recession which will be triggered by Russia which continues to cut off energy supplies, while there are also doubts in the ECB’s ability to avoid investor panic as it raises rates for the first time in a decade.

Following Lagarde’s statement, Italian bonds trimmed declines, narrowing the 10-year yield premium over its German counterpart — a key gauge of risk in the region — by six basis points to 192 basis points, the lowest since Thursday.

The ECB is also working on a new bond-buying instrument to tackle the same issue — known as fragmentation — and is expected to announce something in the coming weeks. Lagarde said the tool will allow rates to rise “as far as necessary,” complementing efforts to stabilize inflation at the 2% target — a quarter of the current level.

Of course, that will never happen and instead the moment the details of the “anti-fragmentation” mechanism are revealed and the market realizes just how powerless the ECB is, yields and spreads will blow out to multi-year highs.

Addressing the same event in Portugal, Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said he thinks “sterilization” to nullify the stimulative effect of bond purchases “should be part of the instrument.” The tool “should be a backstop,” used only when urgently needed, he said.

However, since there is no such thing as a deus ex machina, the moment the ECB unveils the specifics and details is when the next crisis begins, and the ECB knows that very well.

Separately, while describing the risk of a recession in the 19-member euro area as “non-trivial,” Kazaks said rates can be raised “quite quickly” and called front-loading hikes — including a possible July move beyond the planned quarter-point — “reasonable.”Lagarde backed the ECB’s base case for next month, but stressed the path for steady rate increases could be accelerated if price pressures worsen.

What the ECB should be worried about is how fast it will cut rates after its rate hikes spark the next recession and whether rates will hit a new record negative yield one year from today/

end

FRANCE

France seems nuclear energy output plummet at the worst possible moment

(Zaremba/OilPrice.com)

France Sees Nuclear Energy Output Plummet At The Worst Possible Moment

TUESDAY, JUN 28, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,

France, the European Union’s leader in nuclear energy, is seeing a massive decline in output.
Though it has been relatively unfazed by the bloc’s ongoing energy crisis, declining nuclear production could pose a significant problem in the coming months.
The collapse of French nuclear power generation and Putin’s retaliatory cutback on energy exports to Europe could be disastrous for the continent.

France has long been one of the world’s greatest champions of nuclear energy. France leads the European Union in nuclear production, with the most productive reactors in the bloc, and relies on nuclear power for a larger share of its energy mix than any other country in the world. It makes sense that France should lead the charge for nuclear energy development as they have long been the global poster child for safe and reliable nuclear energy – until now.

A recent flurry of unexpected issues at the Électricité de France (EDF), the state nuclear power operator representing the largest nuclear fleet in Europe, has caused French nuclear energy output to tumble to its lowest levels in 30 years. Around half of the EDF’s massive nuclear fleet has been taken offline, delivering a massive blow to the EU’s energy independence and security in the midst of a worldwide energy crisis.

France has become increasingly reliant on nuclear power in recent years. French President Emmanuel Macron has given nuclear energy an even bigger boost in his time in office. Indeed, in February, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he announced a €52 billion plan to revitalize the country’s “nuclear adventure.” He has also fought for the inclusion of the emissions-free power source as a “green investment” in the nomenclature of the European Union as the continent moves toward establishing its green energy budget for the coming years.

The European Union had hoped that France’s considerable nuclear power capacity would be key in allowing the bloc to move away from Russian energy as the West tries to shore up its energy independence and increase sanctions on the Kremlin in response to the Russian war in Ukraine. As recently as March of this year, the Council on Foreign Relations posited that nuclear power could be the answer to ending the continent’s crippling reliance on Russian energy. But now it might be the very thing that makes such a divorce impossible.

Until now, France has been relatively sheltered from the energy crisis squeezing its neighbors. But now the nuclear-reliant nation suddenly finds itself in the same boat as other energy-strapped European nations thanks to a “series of maintenance issues including corrosion at some of France’s ageing reactors, troubles at state-controlled energy group EDF and a years-long absence of significant new nuclear investment,” according to reporting from the Financial Times. The issues of corrosion, which are currently to blame for 12 of France’s 56 offline reactors, could take years to fix. Meanwhile, inflation is soaring and French electric bills have hit record highs.

“Instead of pumping vast amounts of electricity to Britain, Italy and other European countries pivoting from Russian oil,” writes The New York Times,
“France faces the unsettling prospect of initiating rolling blackouts this winter and having to import power.”

The incredibly bad timing of the EDF’s crisis is compounded with Putin’s recent slashing of natural gas exports to the EU, which have pushed countries such as Germany, Italy, Austria, and the Netherlands to a “bitter and reluctant return to coal.”

The contemporaneous collapse of French nuclear power generation capacity and Putin’s retaliatory cutback on energy exports to Europe spell out disaster and tragedy for the continent’s – and the world’s – decarbonization efforts. And even if France can get its nuclear fleet back up and running relatively quickly (a highly unlikely feat), it’s unlikely that the EU will be able to continue its planned coal phase-out, as the International Energy Agency warns that Russia may soon be cutting off its flow of natural gas to Europe entirely. While other countries including Romania will be bulking up their own nuclear energy capacity in the coming months and years, it looks like we’re on track for a banner year for coal and a devastating step back for global emissions targets.

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS/

Back to the Future in Ukraine–Demilitarization and Denazification

Inbox

Sadly, the West does not understand the deep seated feelings Russians have about Nazism that goes back to WWII.
In the West, we need to ask ourselves why we allow support for such ideology.

Back to the Future in Ukraine–Demilitarization and Denazification

JORDAN

This is happening far too often: a shocking toxic gas leak kills at least 10 and injures 1000s in a Jordanian port.

(Middle East Eye)

Watch: Shocking Toxic Gas Leak Kills At Least 10, Injures 100s In Jordanian Port

MONDAY, JUN 27, 2022 – 08:35 PM

Via Middle East Eye,

At least 10 people died and more than 250 were injured on Monday, when toxic gas leaked from a tank in the Jordanian port of Aqaba, state media has reported.

The death toll is expected to rise, officials said, with hospitals in the port city at maximum capacity.

The leak happened after a tank filled with a substance reported to be liquid chlorine fell during transportation, said Amer al-Sartawi, the spokesperson of the Public Security Directorate.

Footage circulating on social media showed the spread of the gas leak.

Translation: Watch: The moment a toxic gas tank fell in Aqaba.

The southern beach in the governorate of Aqaba was evacuated before the leak was brought under control, the official said.

“The area was immediately isolated, and specialists began to deal with the accident. Meanwhile, the Civil Defence transferred a number of injuries to the hospital, and they are all under treatment,” the spokesman added.

The injured were taken to Prince Hashem Military Hospital in the city of Iba’a, as well as the Islamic Hospital, and a third private hospital, in addition to those treated at a temporary field hospital.

The Jordan Social Security Corporation said it was maintaining a close eye on the condition of the injured in case of air evacuation to other hospitals.

Jordanian Prime Minister Bishr al-Khasawneh has ordered an investigation, to be headed by the minister of interior.

An environmental official was quoted by Jordanian media as saying “the impact of gas is currently declining, and there is no harm to public health as a result of the accident”.

The head of the chemical industries sector in the Jordan Chamber of Industry, Ahmed al-Bas, said the gas was “liquid chlorine”, which he described as a basic industrial substance used as a steriliser.

Al-Bas said high concentrations of the gas were toxic, but low concentrations were not harmful.

He stressed that the impact of Monday’s leak “will fade within a very short time with the spread of gas in the atmosphere, especially since the place is open”.

“In the first moments of leakage and explosion, the gas is fatal, and after a short period it becomes harmful and causes a coma, then when it vanishes in the air it becomes without effect,” he said.

Al-Bas added that “within hours” of the leak, there would be no risk to humans from the gas.

end

GLOBAL ISSUES AND COVID COMMENTARIES

GLOBAL ISSUES/SUPPLY CHAINS

The world divides: BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) reaffirm that Russia is not as isolated as NATO suggests

(zerohedge)

BRICS Summit Reaffirms That Russia Not As Isolated As NATO Suggests

MONDAY, JUN 27, 2022 – 11:35 PM

The recent BRICS summit managed to run its course this past week with very little fanfare, despite the fact that Russia is in the midst of a conflict with Ukraine that has led to a worldwide economic war. China is edging towards a potential invasion of Taiwan, and much of the planet is in the middle of a stagflationary crisis in the meantime.

The one major takeaway from the summit was the reaffirmed stance of the BRICS that they would continue to work closely with Russia in economic terms.

Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, there has been a running narrative in the western media that sanctions and the removal of Russian access to the SWIFT network would crush the country within a few months, leaving them penniless and unable to project military power. This has not happened.

A picture was painted by journalists and politicians of a completely isolated Russia, destroyed by a global cancel culture campaign that would de-nation them. In reality, Russian trade, specifically their oil trade, has actually expanded. Both China and India have increased their purchases of Russian oil while enjoying discounted prices. Simultaneously, Europe and the US are suffering from oil and gas inflation and the EU is cutting vital oil and gas supplies from Russia.

Any economist with a brain and a familiarity with the BRICS could have predicted this outcome, but the bias within the mainstream media is a powerful thing. If there were any doubts that the BRICS might distance themselves from Russia, these were put to rest in the BRICS statement on the Ukraine situation. While supporting humanitarian efforts within Ukraine as well as diplomatic solutions, the BRICS member took swipes and NATO countries for opportunism and instigation. In other words, there will be no breakup with Russia and BRICS markets will continue to remain open to them.

This means that Russia’s war with Ukraine will be sustainable for many months to come, which means that sanctions and economic warfare will continue for many months to come. Supply chain disruptions will continue unabated as Russian commodities remain off the market for the west, and this will add to the already high inflation we are currently dealing with.

Further economic escalation could even lead to BRICS allies engaging in trade warfare as well. The situation has a powderkeg potential beyond anything the world has seen in decades.

Vaccine Impact

VACCINE INJURY/

MICHAEL EVERY

Rabo: The Market Endlessly Wonders How Long Until We Cut Rates And Re-start QE Again

TUESDAY, JUN 28, 2022 – 11:00 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Abby Normal

Dr. Frankenstein: “Igor… May I speak to you for a moment?”
Igor: “Of course.”
Dr. Frankenstein: “Sit down, won’t you?”
Igor: “Thank you.”
Dr. Frankenstein: “No, no. Up here.”
Igor: “Thank you.”
Dr. Frankenstein: “Now, that brain that you gave me… was it Hans Delbruck’s?”
Igor: “No.”
Dr. Frankenstein: “Ah! Good. Would you mind telling me whose brain I did put in?”
Igor: “Then you won’t be angry?”
Dr. Frankenstein: “I will *not* be angry.”
Igor: “Abby someone.”
Dr. Frankenstein: “Abby someone… Abby who?”
Igor: “Abby Normal.”
Dr. Frankenstein: “Abby Normal…”
Igor: “I’m almost sure that was the name.”
Dr. Frankenstein: “Are you saying that I put an abnormal brain into a seven-and-a-half-foot long, gorilla? Is that what you’re telling me?”

Young Frankenstein (1974)

If one does not laugh, one cries at another (Abby) normal day in markets.

Normal, as we saw US 10-year yields rise 7bp back to 3.20% and oil rise around 2%.

Normal, as G7 chair Germany welcomed South Africa’s progress on its ‘Just Energy Transition Partnership’ as it implements ‘Stage 4’ rolling blackouts.

Normal, as Sri Lanka, already allowing civil servants four-day weeks to grow their own food, suspends fuel sales entirely except for emergency services.

Normal, as the US and EU released a joint statement on European Energy Security that talked of “important, necessary, and immediate steps” and recognized “the enormity of the challenge” – and then promised 1.5m “smart thermostats” for an economy with 445m people. The thermostats really don’t need to be smart. All of them will read “it’s freezing!” this winter. Indeed, yesterday’s Bloomberg article ‘Many Winters Are Coming. Start Saving Energy Now’ is worth quoting in detail:

“The European manufacturing sector is crumbling under the weight of sustained high electricity and natural gas prices. With little prospect of relief, another wave of curtailments and closures looms. And that’s before any rationing of natural gas, potentially later this year, in Germany in the event Russia reduces supply even further. In that scenario, many companies will have no choice but to shut down… The months-long crisis that many industrialists pencilled into their plans has morphed into a years-long problem. The prospect of bleeding cash for a few months, perhaps half a year, or even a year, was one thing; losing money indefinitely is another thing entirely.
For example, an aluminium smelter would lose about $200m annually at current forward prices for electricity and carbon dioxide for the next year. And that’s despite elevated prices for the metal in the markets. Aluminium may be an extreme example, but it’s evidence of the pressures faced by industrialists. In private, European executives say they’ll use the forthcoming quarterly reporting season in mid-July to announce more plant closures. The affected industries will be those with the most intensive energy use: fertilizer, base metals and steel, chemical, ceramic, glass and paper. But increasingly food production will be, too. Heated greenhouses and chicken farms face astronomical energy bills.”

Normal, as someone snarked on Twitter about smiling G7 leaders looking like a terrible boy-band, “It took 14 months to go from ‘Build Back Better’ to ‘There Will Be Food Shortages’”.

Normal, as CNN carries the story, ‘‘Give us a plan or give us someone to blame’: Inside a White House consumed by problems Biden can’t fix’, which says, “Instead of managing an economy in the midst of a natural rotation away from recovery and into a stable period of growth, economic officials are analyzing and modelling worst-case scenarios like what the shock of gas prices hitting $200 per barrel may mean for the economy.”

Normal, as the article quotes a Harvard professor who was economic advisor to President Obama claiming, “There’s no playbook for fixing the supply side of the economy. It’s not like in economic policy school they teach you here are the 12 things to do to rapidly fix the supply side in an economy.” Funny how China manages it, and the US/West used to before neoliberalism.

Normal, as the Dallas Fed survey includes the quotes such as:

“As a country, we are not looking at the future and establishing relationships with emerging countries like we should to ease the dependency on Chinese products and services. This will hurt us in the long run.”
“Everything we buy and sell comes and goes by truck, if we can get a truck at any price. Inflation will continue until the country is self-sufficient in oil and gas. The current political policy may not change until 2024. Therefore, inflation will be our consistent companion for a while, then stagflation!”
“We’ll all be lucky to have a job with two more years of this disaster.”
“You can’t ignore the economic fundamentals leading to a likely recession, and the administration is either stubborn or as paralyzed as a deer in headlights.”

Normal, as the US starts to ramp up rare earth production yet hears, “Now that Western governments are saying we need our own supply chains, you think China is just going to say, ‘Thanks for being a great customer for the last 30 years?’… No. They are going to fight to protect their market share.” Which one can apply to almost every product the US buys from them.

Normal, as the US continues to drain its strategic petroleum reserve, which is now at its lowest level since 1986, and yet energy prices remain sky high, as President Macron tells President Biden the UAE and Saudis cannot pump any more oil. Imagine if there were a major war and the US really needed that oil.

Normal, as Russia attacked a Ukrainian shopping centre, killing at least 13 people.

Normal, as NATO announced it will increase its rapid reaction forces on high readiness from 40,000 to 300,000. Now? In 10 years? Whose troops? Europe is long on pencil-pushers but short on people used to dealing the sharp end of anything else. This hugely expensive action suggests the alliance may be heeding rumours that Moscow may attack the Baltic states, a geopolitical development which could make what we have seen so far look like a sideshow for markets.

Normal, as NATO’s first strategy statement for a decade will apparently designate China as a “systemic challenge”, inflaming Beijing: yet that is still a compromise pushed by France and Germany, who insist on stressing a “willingness to work on areas of common interest”, and the Czechs and Hungarians won’t accept “strategic convergence” between China and Russia. Meanwhile, US China expert Matt Pottinger this week noted you cannot turn a great white shark into a bottle-nosed dolphin by treating it sweetly, and that even pre-Covid China refused to cooperate on disease-control efforts without the US making concessions on the South China Sea.

Normal, as China tried to set up a meeting with 10 Pacific Island leaders right before they hold their own meeting on 14 July, which, after Western pushback via the ‘Blue Pacific’ plan, seems far less likely to turn their vast maritime region ‘red’.

Normal, as The Hill carries another withering article asking, ‘Biden’s White House: Are we nearing ‘The Klain Mutiny’?’, noting, “The Biden administration is losing the short game when it comes to US national security, and President Biden’s upcoming July trip to the Middle East is yet another case study in how the White House keeps misfiring and setting the president up for failure. It would be one thing if the administration’s missteps were merely unforced errors, but they are not. They appear to be systemic in nature – they begin with chief of staff Ron Klain and extend to national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin.”

It goes on to claim that Klain’s “glaring lack of substantive national security or foreign policy experience, either at a Cabinet or command level, is proving problematic… 17 months into Biden’s presidency, it is clear that Klain, Sullivan, Blinken, and Austin are incapable of prioritizing, let alone apolitically balancing, the two – with US national security (and Biden) paying an unacceptable price…. Biden must recognize he is now a war president and that he must make changes to his national security team to reflect this reality.”

Normal, as Twitter debates Hunter Biden having had his bank account frozen after trying to make payments to escorts with Russian accounts, related snark that “I yearn for simpler times, like when a President’s child secured Chinese trademarks for a business venture”, and a voicemail emerges of President Biden telling Hunter, “I think you’re clear,” regarding business dealings with a figure dubbed the ‘spy chief of China’ – almost none of which is worthy of mainstream media attention.

Normal, as most of the market endlessly wonders how long until we cut rates and re-start QE again, and this backdrop magically goes away: “Did you hear? We won the war because the Fed cut rates!”

It’s all Abby Normal: give me a sed-a-give until someone with real brains emerges.

end

7. OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

end

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES

Australia//// NEW ZEALAND/ SOUTH AFRICA/BRAZIL/ARGENTINA/INDIA/PAKISTAN

SRI LANKA

Sri Lanka suspends in fuel sales as their economy totally collapses.. They have now gone to Russia for help

(zerohedge)

Sri Lanka Suspends Fuel Sales Amid Economic Collapse; Asks Russians For Help

MONDAY, JUN 27, 2022 – 07:35 PM

A broke and extremely cash-strapped Sri Lanka halted all fuel sales except for essential services in a desperate attempt to manage a severe fuel shortage — allowing the government to buy some time and send two government officials to Russia to negotiate a fuel deal.

“From midnight today, no fuel will be sold except for essential services like the health sector, because we want to conserve the little reserves we have,” government spokesman Bandula Gunawardana said in a pre-recorded statement, obtained by AFP News.

The Sri Lankan government announced only essential services would operate and be allowed access to fuel until July 10 because of a fuel shortage

“Sri Lanka has never faced such a severe economic crisis in its history,” Gunewardena added.

The move comes less than a week after Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the debt-laden economy of the island nation has “completely collapsed:”

“We are now facing a far more serious situation beyond the mere shortages of fuel, gas, electricity, and food. Our economy has faced a complete collapse.
“It is no easy task to revive a country with a completely collapsed economy, especially one that is dangerously low on foreign reserves,” ” Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe told parliament on June 22.

“The country is also facing record-high inflation and lengthy power blackouts, all of which have contributed to months of protests — sometimes violent — calling on President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to step down,” AFP said.

While the government said talks were held with the IMF, India, China, and Japan for new credit lines, negotiations to purchase heavily discounted Russian crude oil are set to begin this week.

Power and Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekera said the two ministers would arrive in Russia early this week to continue talks about directly purchasing Russian fuels, according to AP News.

“There is an advantage for us if we could buy oil directly from the Russian government or the Russian firms. There are talks going on,” Wijesekera told reporters Sunday.

Earlier this month, Sri Lanka turned to Russia for cheap oil to purchase crude roughly $30 below the international spot price. The South Asian country said it received 90,000 tons of Russian crude but will need a lot more.

Sri Lanka’s move to take Russian oil raises Western eyebrows as the country has remained neutral since the Ukraine war began. The country is in collapse as foreign exchange reserves plummeted by 70% in the last two years and have suspended foreign debt repayments — 10% of the $51 billion of the external debt owned is owed to China.

The government’s mishandling of the country’s economy and suspension of fuel sales could exacerbate social unrest.

END

Your early currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 1.0577 DOWN 0.0003 /EUROPE BOURSES //ALL GREEN

USA/ YEN 136.214 UP .775 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2236 DOWN 0.0030

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 30.03 POINTS UP 0.89%

Hang Sang CLOSED UP 189.45 PTS OR 0.85%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.87% // EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 189.45 PTS OR 0.85%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 30.02 PTS UP 0.89%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.87%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 178.20 OR 0.66%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1823.35

silver:$21.20

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 103.81 UP 13 CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.70% UP 7 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.227% DOWN 1 AND 5/10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.67%// UP 2 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.67 UP 4 points in basis points yield ./

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +1.635%

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0531 DOWN 0.0079 or 79 basis points

USA/Japan: 136.27 UP 0.835 OR YEN DOWN 84 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2195 DOWN 0.0071 OR 71 BASIS POINTS

Canadian dollar DOWN .0003 OR 3 BASIS pts to 1.2886

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED ..DOWN 6.7080

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)..6.7051

TURKISH LIRA: 16.61 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.227

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from MONDAY at 3.211% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 3.321 UP 2 in basis points

Your closing USA dollar index, 103.44 DOWN 52 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 65.75 PTS OR 0.91%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 49.15 POINTS OR 0.37%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 39.75 PTS OR 0.60%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 61.30 OR 0.34%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 177.20PTS OR 0.31%

WTI Oil price 109.31 12: EST

Brent Oil: 114.85 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// RUBLE RISES TO: 51.81 UP 1 & 60/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +1.635

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0526 DOWN .0054 OR 54 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2185 DOWN .0081 or 81 basis pts

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 136.20 UP 0.752//YEN DOWN 75 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.2870 DOWN 1 (CDN dollar UP 1 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 111.81

Brent OIL: 117.92

USA 10 yr bond yield: 3.192 UP 0 points

USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.298 DOWN 1 pts

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 16.67

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 51.80 UP 1 AND 6/10 ROUBLES

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 61.10 PTS OR 0.19 %

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 119.04 PTS OR 0.98%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 27.34 UP 0.11 PTS (0.40)%

GLD: 170.06 DOWN 0.20 PTS OR 0.12%

SLV/ 19.51 DOWN .02 PTS OR 0.10%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

‘Bad News’ Is Bad News Again: Stocks Slammed On Macro Meltdown, Bonds Shrug

TUESDAY, JUN 28, 2022 – 04:01 PM

Well that rotation didn’t last long.

Yesterday’s ‘good news’ spoiled the ‘growth scare’ narrative (which would pressure The Fed to lift its foot off the market’s throat) and sent stocks lower.

Today, a disastrous set of data reignited the ‘bad news is bad news’ mantra as Consumer confidence crashed, Richmond Fed was routed, Retail and Wholesale inventories rose less than expected (not good for GDP and a signal that companies are losing confidence in the consumer), Home Price acceleration slowed a smidge, Goldman’s Retail Spending comps index tumbled to its weakest since 2019, and Nielsen data showed increasing price pressures on the US consumer.

All of which pushed ‘hope’ back near pre-Trump lows with soft survey data leading hard real economic data lower…

Source: Bloomberg

All of which means the relative resilience of consensus margin and earnings estimate is likely to come increasingly under scrutiny which sent stocks significantly lower on the day with Nasdaq the biggest loser (down over 3% on the day). NOTE that overnight futures were bid towards the Asia close as China eased its COVID travel restrictions but after an initial mini spike at the US cash open, everything got clubbed like a baby seal…

The Nasdaq dived shortly after the kneejerk higher on the US cash open and erased all gains to the cash open on Friday. The S&P 500 and Dow also erased all of its post-Friday-open gains…

The S&P 500 fell back into bear market territory…

Source: Bloomberg

We note that today’s ugly data did nothing to stop the reversion to a hawkish trend in rate-hike expectations that hit yesterday…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX retraced all of yesterday’s drop, trading back up near 29 today…

Despite an ugly 7Y auction – following yesterday’s ugly auction – and the bloodbathery in stonks, Treasuries ended the day basically unchanged. Asia was buying bonds, Europe was selling, and US session saw the bid come back to leave 30Y yields -1bps and the rest unch…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar spiked today as the Euro weakened as the ECB claimed it would start its defragmentation tool this weekend, just as QE ends…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was slammed.. again… with Bitcoin dropping back near $20k…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold rallied overnight in the Asia session then was sold all the way through Europe and US sessions…

Oil traded higher once again ahead of tonight’s API inventory data (note tomorrow’s official EIA data will include last week’s delayed data) helped by G-7 price cap malarkey and relatively positive news from China easing its quarantine restrictions…

Notably, while the G-7 were busily trying to persuade the world to cap the price they pay for Russian oil, the discount from brent for URALS Med Crude hit a new high of $36…

Source: Bloomberg

Remember, 1) they will never persuade China or India to agree, and 2) western nations already don’t buy Russian oil.

US NatGas tumbled in the afternoon – after Europe closed – perhaps on news that gas flows returned through Turkstream and the G-7 price caps – but ended modestly higher…

But US NatGas is trading in line with WTI on an oil barrel equivalent price (and EU NatGas trading almost 100% higher)…

Source: Bloomberg

Copper pumped and dumped today to end modestly lower, rallying during the Asia session (China easing restrictions) then selling off through Europe and US….

Finally, we note that US TSY Bonds are at their cheapest relative to stocks since 2011 and at a level of cheapness that has previously prompted rotation from stocks into bonds…

Source: Bloomberg

TINA is dead and quarter-end rebalancing may be a problem for those expecting stocks’ losses to mean some refills.

Also, as a reminder, the dollar liquidity market remains under stress…

Source: Bloomberg

Nothing to panic about yet but the closer we get to quarter-end, we will see who’s swimming naked.

end

I) / EARLY MORNING TRADING//

END

ii) USA DATA

Case-Shiller Home Prices Soared By Record In April, But…

TUESDAY, JUN 28, 2022 – 09:07 AM

With home sales weakening across the nation (while mean home prices are surging relative to median, signaling higher-end homes dominating the sales) and homebuilder sentiment slumping, this morning’s Case-Shiller (newly minted S&P CoreLogic CS) home price index data unexpectedly accelerated even higher.

The latest data is from April and shows the 20-City Composite surging 1.77% MoM (less than the 1.90% expected) BUT surging by a record 21.23% YoY (more than the +21.05% expected).

Source: Bloomberg

“April 2022 showed initial (although inconsistent) signs of a deceleration in the growth rate of U.S. home prices,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in statement.

“Despite the deceleration of the National Composite and the modest acceleration for the 10- and 20-City Composites, these growth rates are extremely strong by historical standards – at or above the 99th percentile in all three cases.”

BUT… as a reminder, the Case-Shiller data is lagged and smoothed, so things likely got a lot more ‘complicated’ since this April data as mortgage rates spiked and mortgage applications collapsed…

Source: Bloomberg

Tampa, Miami, Phoenix reported highest year-over-year gains among 20 cities surveyed

“In contrast with the past five months, when prices in most cities accelerated, in April only nine cities saw prices rise faster than they had done in March,” he said.
“There’s a regional pattern among the nine, as all five cities in our South composite (Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Miami, and Tampa) are represented there.”

Maybe it is time for Mr.Powell to get back to work after all. This is not the less-flation he is hoping for.

END

Consumer Confidence Crashes In June, Richmond Fed Survey Plunges To COVID Lockdown Lows

TUESDAY, JUN 28, 2022 – 10:12 AM

Following the crash (to record lows) of UMich Sentiment, analysts expected The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index to tumble in June. They were right but it was a considerably bigger miss with the headline falling to 98.7 from 103.2 (revised lower) and well below the 100.0 expected. This was largely driven by a collapse in ‘expectations’ from 73.7 to 66.4 (present situation confidence fell from 147.4 to 147.1)…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the weakest level for ‘hope’ in the future since 2013.

Additionally, the actions of Americans – dumping their savings to afford soaring cost of living – suggest Conference Board expectations have further to fall…

Source: Bloomberg

The Conference Board is starting to catch down to the record lows of UMich…

Source: Bloomberg

So that’s your average joe’ American, but your ‘average joe’ American business is also increasingly pessimistic as Richmond Fed’s Manufacturing confirms with a crash to COVID lockdown lows (printing -19 in June from -9, dramatically missing expectations of a small rebound to -7)

Under the hood, shipments and new orders collapsed and local business conditions were a bloodbath… with expectations for conditions in the future worsening notably.

Finally, we also note that for the first time since 2019, ‘soft’ survey data is below ‘hard’ real economic data…

Source: Bloomberg

‘Hope’ is getting hammered – almost a one way street lower since Biden was elected – now near its lowest since before Trump was elected.

end

IIB) USA COVID/VACCINE MANDATES

end

iii)a. USA economic stories

Another food processing plant shutters operations. The high inflation is killing their business

(zerohedge)

Another Food Processing Plant Shutters Operations, Adding To Long List Of Closures

TUESDAY, JUN 28, 2022 – 06:55 AM

A top food processing plant will be closing down one of its facilities in Campbell County, Tennessee, adding to the long list of closures over the last year.

George’s Prepared Foods announced its chicken processing plant in the small town of Caryville would be shuttering operations by the end of the summer.

The reason for the closure was not disclosed and has caught local officials by surprise. Campbell County Mayor E.L. Morton told local news WVLT that he’s trying to keep the plant open to save hundreds of jobs.

“I have contacted the Tennessee Economic and Community Development staff to request assistance in keeping the plant open or facilitating a sale to another operator
“I have requested Governor Lee’s assistance as well. My primary concern is for the welfare of the dedicated workers who have been the backbone of this operation. Our prayers go out to them as well as our very best efforts to keep them employed in Campbell County,” Morton said.

Senior Vice President of George’s Food, Robert George, released a statement about the closure, citing it’s “a challenging time to be in the prepared foods business, and we have been carefully evaluating how we navigate the volatility in beef and pork markets.”

George didn’t explain what “challenging time” meant and if that was due to rampant inflation pressuring operating margins.

The announcement of the closure pushed up the number of closed US food processing plants over the last year to 100. The list below are plants destroyed, damaged, or impacted by “accidental fires,” disease, or other causes (courtesy of The Gateway Pundit):

1/11/21 A fire that destroyed 75,000-square-foot processing plant in Fayetteville
4/30/21 A fire ignited inside the Smithfield Foods pork processing plant in Monmouth, IL
7/25/21 Three-alarm fire at Kellogg plant in Memphis, 170 emergency personnel responded to the call
7/30/21 Firefighters on Friday battled a large fire at Tyson’s River Valley Ingredients plant in Hanceville, Alabama
8/23/21 Fire crews were called to the Patak Meat Production company on Ewing Road in Austell
9/13/21 A fire at the JBS beef plant in Grand Island, Neb., on Sunday night forced a halt to slaughter and fabrication lines
10/13/21 A five-alarm fire ripped through the Darigold butter production plant in Caldwell, ID
11/15/21 A woman is in custody following a fire at the Garrard County Food Pantry
11/29/21 A fire broke out around 5:30 p.m. at the Maid-Rite Steak Company meat processing plant
12/13/21 West Side food processing plant in San Antonio left with smoke damage after a fire
1/7/22 Damage to a poultry processing plant on Hamilton’s Mountain following an overnight fire
1/13/22 Firefighters worked for 12 hours to put a fire out at the Cargill-Nutrena plant in Lecompte, LA
1/31/22 a fertilizer plant with 600 tons of ammonium nitrate inside caught on fire on Cherry Street in Winston-Salem
2/3/22 A massive fire swept through Wisconsin River Meats in Mauston
2/3/22 At least 130 cows were killed in a fire at Percy Farm in Stowe
2/15/22 Bonanza Meat Company goes up in flames in El Paso, Texas
2/15/22 Nearly a week after the fire destroyed most of the Shearer’s Foods plant in Hermiston
2/16/22 A fire had broken at US largest soybean processing and biodiesel plant in Claypool, Indiana
2/18/22 An early morning fire tore through the milk parlor at Bess View Farm
2/19/22 Three people were injured, and one was hospitalized, after an ammonia leak at Lincoln Premium Poultry in Fremont
2/22/22 The Shearer’s Foods plant in Hermiston caught fire after a propane boiler exploded
2/28/22 A smoldering pile of sulfur quickly became a raging chemical fire at Nutrien Ag Solutions
2/28/22 A man was hurt after a fire broke out at the Shadow Brook Farm and Dutch Girl Creamery
3/4/22 294,800 chickens destroyed at farm in Stoddard, Missouri
3/4/22 644,000 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Cecil, Maryland
3/8/22 243,900 chickens destroyed at egg farm in New Castle, Delaware
3/10/22 663,400 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Cecil, MD
3/10/22 915,900 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Taylor, IA
3/14/22 The blaze at 244 Meadow Drive was discovered shortly after 5 p.m. by farm owner Wayne Hoover
3/14/22 2,750,700 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Jefferson, Wisconsin
3/16/22 A fire at a Walmart warehouse distribution center in Plainfield, Indiana has cast a large plume of smoke visible throughout Indianapolis.
3/16/22 Nestle Food Plant extensively damaged in fire and new production destroyed Jonesboro, Arkansas
3/17/22 5,347,500 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Buena Vista, Iowa
3/17/22 147,600 chickens destroyed at farm in Kent, Delaware
3/18/22 315,400 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Cecil, Maryland
3/22/22 172,000 Turkeys destroyed on farms in South Dakota
3/22/22 570,000 chickens destroyed at farm in Butler, Nebraska
3/24/22 Fire fighters from numerous towns are battling a major fire at the McCrum potato processing facility in Belfast, Maine.
3/24/22 418,500 chickens destroyed at farm in Butler, Nebraska
3/25/22 250,300 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Franklin, Iowa
3/26/22 311,000 Turkeys destroyed in Minnesota
3/27/22 126,300 Turkeys destroyed in South Dakota
3/28/22 1,460,000 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Guthrie, Iowa
3/29/22 A massive fire burned 40,000 pounds of food meant to feed people in a food desert near Maricopa
3/31/22 A structure fire caused significant damage to a large portion of key fresh onion packing facilities in south Texas
3/31/22 76,400 Turkeys destroyed in Osceola, Iowa
3/31/22 5,011,700 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Osceola, Iowa
4/6/22 281,600 chickens destroyed at farm in Wayne, North Carolina
4/9/22 76,400 Turkeys destroyed in Minnesota
4/9/22 208,900 Turkeys destroyed in Minnesota
4/12/22 89,700 chickens destroyed at farm in Wayne, North Carolina
4/12/22 1,746,900 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Dixon, Nebraska
4/12/22 259,000 chickens destroyed at farm in Minnesota
4/13/22 Fire destroys East Conway Beef & Pork Meat Market in Conway, New Hampshire
4/13/22 Plane crashes into Gem State Processing, Idaho potato and food processing plant
4/13/22 77,000 Turkeys destroyed in Minnesota
4/14/22 Taylor Farms Food Processing plant burns down Salinas, California.
4/14/22 99,600 Turkeys destroyed in Minnesota
4/15/22 1,380,500 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Lancaster, Minnesota
4/19/22 Azure Standard nation’s premier independent distributor of organic and healthy food, was destroyed by fire in Dufur, Oregon
4/19/22 339,000 Turkeys destroyed in Minnesota
4/19/22 58,000 chickens destroyed at farm in Montrose, Color
4/20/22 2,000,000 chickens destroyed at egg farm in Minnesota
4/21/22 A small plane crashed in the lot of a General Mills plant in Covington, Georgia
4/22/22 197,000 Turkeys destroyed in Minnesota
4/23/22 200,000 Turkeys destroyed in Minnesota
4/25/22 1,501,200 chickens destroyed at egg farm Cache, Utah
4/26/22 307,400 chickens destroyed at farm Lancaster Pennsylvania
4/27/22 2,118,000 chickens destroyed at farm Knox, Nebraska
4/28/22 Egg-laying facility in Iowa kills 5.3 million chickens, fires 200-plus workers
4/28/22 Allen Harim Foods processing plant killed nearly 2M chickens in Delaware
4/2822 110,700 Turkeys destroyed Barron Wisconsin
4/29/22 5 million honeybees are dead after a flight carrying the pollinator insects from California to Alaska got diverted to Georgia (New)
4/29/22 1,366,200 chickens destroyed at farm Weld Colorado
4/30/22 13,800 chickens destroyed at farm Sequoia Oklahoma
5/3/22 58,000 Turkeys destroyed Barron Wisconsin
5/3/22 118,900 Turkeys destroyed Beadle S Dakota
5/3/22 114,000 ducks destroyed at Duck farm Berks Pennsylvania
5/3/22 118,900 Turkeys destroyed Lyon Minnesota
5/7/22 20,100 Turkeys destroyed Barron Wisconsin
5/10/22 72,300 chickens destroyed at farm Lancaster Pennsylvania
5/10/22 61,000 ducks destroyed at Duck farm Berks Pennsylvania
5/10/22 35,100 Turkeys destroyed Muskegon, Michigan
5/13/22 10,500 Turkeys destroyed Barron Wisconsin
5/14/22 83,400 ducks destroyed at Duck farm Berks Pennsylvania
5/17/22 79,00 chickens destroyed at Duck farm Berks Pennsylvania
5/18/22 7,200 ducks destroyed at Duck farm Berks Pennsylvania
5/19/22 Train carrying limestone derailed Jensen Beach FL
5/21/22 57,000 Turkeys destroyed on farm in Dakota Minnesota
5/23/22 4,000 ducks destroyed at Duck farm Berks Pennsylvania
5/29/22 A Saturday night fire destroyed a poultry building at Forsman Farms in Howard Lake, Minnesota
5/31/22 3,000,000 chickens destroyed by fire at Forsman facility in Stockholm Township, Minnesota
6/2/22 30,000 ducks destroyed at Duck farm Berks Pennsylvania
6/7/22 A fire occurred Tuesday evening at the JBS meat packing plant in Green Bay, Wisconsin
6/8/22 Firefighters from Tangipahoa Fire District 1 respond to a fire at the Purina Feed Mill in Arcola, Louisiana
6/9/22 Irrigation water was canceled in California (the #1 producer of food in the US) and storage water flushed directly out to the delta.
6/12/22 Largest Pork Company in the US Shuts Down California Plant Due to High Costs
6/13/22 Fire Breaks Out at a Food Processing Plant West of Waupaca County in Wisconsin
6/14/22 Over 10,000 head of cattle have reportedly died in the recent Kansas heat wave
6/23/22 George’s Inc.: Poultry and Prepared Foods announced it will close one of its food processing plants in Campbell County, Tennessee

Meanwhile, in London, Ontario, Aspire Food Group recently announced that its new insect production facility would produce 9,000 metric tons of crickets yearly for human and pet consumption across North America, according to Canadian Manufacturing.

As a reminder, the World Economic Forum (WEF) technocrats urged people weeks ago to ditch meat for “climate beneficial foods” such as seaweed, algae, and cacti.

Part of the new world order is to reset the global economy and reengineer what people eat. This is being accomplished by influential billionaires, politicians, celebrities, biased academics, wealthy philanthropists, and the bureaucrats of international organizations and institutions.

end

This is a very important move for the USA

(Greg Isaacson/EpochTimes)

Pentagon Moves To Wrest Rare Earths Control From China

TUESDAY, JUN 28, 2022 – 03:45 PM

Authored by Greg Isaacson via The Epoch Times,

The battle for control of the global rare earths supply chain is heating up, with the U.S. Department of Defense investing in a new processing plant in a bid to challenge China’s chokehold over the critical minerals.

The Pentagon has agreed to fund the entire $120 million cost of a heavy rare earths separation facility to be built in Texas by Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths, advancing a program launched in 2020, the company announced on June 14.

Located on the Gulf Coast, the new facility will give the United States access to domestically produced heavy rare earths that are essential to industries such as electric vehicles, wind turbines, and electronics, according to the company, which is the largest processor of rare earths outside of China.

The Texas facility that landed Pentagon funding will process heavy rare earth carbonate mined in Australia, forming a production cycle that bypasses China entirely. Lynas Rare Earths plans to combine the upcoming plant with a proposed light rare earths separation facility that is being co-funded by the company and the Defense Department.

The project was first announced in July 2020 as part of the U.S. government’s strategy—under a 2017 executive order signed by former President Donald Trump—to reduce dependence on foreign imports of critical minerals. The Pentagon is also funding a heavy rare earths processing and separation facility in Mountain Pass, California.

China’s Dominance in Rare Earth Production

Rare earths are a group of 17 elements with unique properties used in virtually every piece of modern technology, from smartphones to jet engines. Although the United States pioneered the industry during World War II, China now controls over half of global rare earths mining and 80 to 90 percent of intermediate processing.

China’s dominance of the industry represents a major risk to the United States, which currently has only one active rare earths mine—the Mountain Pass mine in California—and zero commercial-scale processing capability. America’s dependence on Chinese rare earths processing gives the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) dangerous leverage over the U.S. economy and military.

For example, the Chinese regime obliquely threatened to limit exports of rare earths to the United States after Washington placed Chinese telecom giant Huawei on a trade blacklist in 2019.

“It is believed that if the U.S. increasingly suppresses the development of China, sooner or later, China will use rare earths as a weapon,” the state-run Global Times newspaper warned in May of that year.

It’s unclear how much damage Beijing could do if it chose to pull the trigger on that threat. A Chinese embargo would send shockwaves through the global market—as happened in 2010 when China temporarily restricted exports of rare earth minerals to Japan over a territorial dispute.

A 2021 study by the U.S. Department of Energy found that a one-year export ban on rare earths by China could cause a 40 percent drop in magnet production outside of China as metals would become harder to obtain. Dysprosium oxide, a key component of the neodymium magnets used in a vast array of technologies from wind turbines to electric vehicles, is particularly vulnerable to price shocks from a Chinese embargo, the study found.

But China’s ability to harm the U.S. economy by weaponizing the rare earths supply is probably more limited than its industry dominance would suggest. A research note published by investment bank Raymond James in 2019 argued that the impact of a Chinese embargo on rare earths exports to the United States would be “mild,” according to a report by CNBC.

The analysts pointed out that the United States spent only $160 million to import rare earths for manufacturing in 2018 and accounted for only 9 percent of global demand for rare earth inputs in the manufacturing process. Most of the high-tech products that would be affected by a rare earths embargo—including PCs, electric vehicle batteries, and fiber optics—are manufactured in Asia rather than the United States.

….

The U.S. military’s dependence on Chinese rare earths is a far more serious vulnerability. The defense supply chain relies heavily on rare earths, from disk drive motors in tanks to fin actuators in missile guidance systems.

…

The United States, in recent years, has begun to piece together a strategy for addressing the national security concerns involving rare earths.

…

Read more here…

Novus Confidential

Investigative Reports

The Gold Cartel

“More Money In Your Pocket” – Newsom To Helicopter Drop $17 Billion In “Inflation Relief” Stimmy Checks

MONDAY, JUN 27, 2022 – 10:15 PM

As the Federal Reserve attempts to crush aggregate demand through the most aggressive monetary tightening policies in decades to cool red-hot inflation, California Governor Gavin Newsom has come up with the brilliant idea to stoke even more demand through a new round of stimulus checks.

“Millions of Californians will be receiving up to $1,050 as part of a NEW middle-class tax rebate.
“That’s more money in your pocket to help you fill your gas tank and put food on the table,” Newsom tweeted Sunday night.

The “inflation relief package” is a staggering $17 billion and will provide relief payments on an income-based system. Bloomberg Law provides more details on how the stimulus scheme works for households:

Individuals making as much as $75,000 a year, or joint filers making up to $150,000, would get $350 each plus $350 for one dependent for a maximum of $1,050. Those with income up to $125,000, or $250,000 filing jointly, would get $250 each plus another $250 for one dependent for a maximum of $750. Those earning more than $250,000, or $500,000 filing jointly, would get $200 each plus $200 for one dependent for maximum of $600.

Newsom’s move to tackle high inflation by helicopter dropping billions of dollars in stimulus checks is utter nonsense and will only work counter to what the Fed is ultimately trying to achieve: recession by aggressively hiking interest rates and winding down the balance sheet to reduce aggregate demand, so consumer prices fall.

Newsom’s stimulus checks could temporarily fuel inflation in the state as households would instantly spend the free money on whatever they please. Solving inflation with more government will only worsen the situation. This is also something the Biden administration fails to see (read: Biden Economic Adviser Asserts That More Government Spending Will Solve Inflation Crisis).

How long until California Democrats beg for price controls as their policies could incite even more inflation? They can’t keep blaming ‘Putin Price Hike’ if their policies spike inflation.

As no lessor authority than The Wall Street Journal Editorial board succinctly concluded:

“Too bad this bribe, er, incentive to vote Democratic won’t offset the state’s fast-rising cost of living, high taxes or the premium Californians pay for energy, water and housing, among other things, due to progressive policies.”

The Newsom manifesto appears to be from taxpayers according to their ability to the politicians according to their need.

END

Abortion clinics in the states now closing after Row v Wade

(Ozimek/EpochTimes)

Abortion Clinics Start Closing After Roe v. Wade Ruling

MONDAY, JUN 27, 2022 – 10:35 PM

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Abortion clinics in multiple states closed their doors on June 25 following the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and allow states to pass their own laws regulating access to abortion.An exam room sits empty in the Planned Parenthood Reproductive Health Services Center in St Louis, Mo., on May 28, 2019. (Michael B. Thomas/Getty Images)

Around half of the states are expected to press ahead with banning abortion after the high court’s landmark ruling, according to the Guttmacher Institute, while in a handful of states with so-called trigger laws, abortion has already become illegal.

Abortion will either soon become—or already is—unlawful in at least 13 states, according to a tally by The Epoch Times: Idaho, North Dakota, Utah, Wyoming, South Dakota, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Texas.

Bans in Mississippi and North Dakota will come into force when their respective attorneys general sign off, while Wyoming’s prohibition will take effect within days.

Tennessee will have its ban applied in 30 days, while Idaho and Texas will see bans applied 30 days after the official judgment. Abortion has become illegal in the following states: Kentucky, Louisiana, Arkansas, South Dakota, Missouri, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Utah.

Clinics Close

Alabama’s three abortion clinics stopped performing abortions as providers face prosecution under a law dating back to 1951.

Staff at the Alabama Women’s Center for Reproductive Alternatives in Huntsville on Friday told women in the waiting room that they could not carry out any more abortions that day, though the women were given a list of out-of-state clinics still doing abortions.

At an abortion clinic in Little Rock, Arkansas, the doors to the patient area shut as soon as the Supreme Court’s decision was formally announced.

“No matter how hard we prepare for bad news, when it finally hits, it hits hard,” a nurse at the clinic told the BBC.

An abortion clinic in New Orleans, Louisiana, one of three that performs the procedure in the state, was also shuttered on Friday.

Legal Uncertainty

Abortion clinics elsewhere—including Arizona, Texas, and West Virginia—stopped performing abortions for fear of prosecution based on laws that predate Roe v. Wade.

In Texas, where trigger laws don’t go into effect for another month, providers suspended abortions while they seek legal advice on whether they are subject to an abortion ban based on laws passed in the 1920s.

Texas Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, who announced the statewide closure of his agency’s office on Friday “in honor of the nearly 70 million unborn babies killed in the womb since 1973,” warned in a letter that prosecutors could immediately choose to pursue criminal prosecutions based on earlier laws that were unenforceable while Roe v. Wade stood.

Similarly, the existence of a 19th-century abortion ban in West Virginia led a clinic there to stop performing the procedure.

Several providers in Arizona halted abortions on Friday as they seek to determine whether pre-statehood laws may be grounds for prosecution.

Overall, repealing Roe v. Wade means that some 36 million women of reproductive age will lose access to abortion in their states, according to research from Planned Parenthood.

Predictably, the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has drawn mixed reactions, with demonstrators outside the Supreme Court voicing both indignation and jubilation

END.

INFLATION STORIES/JOG JAMS

Soaring Inflation And Crashing Rates Are Sparking Trucking’s “Great Purge”

TUESDAY, JUN 28, 2022 – 10:20 AM

By Craig Fuller, CEO at FreightWaves

The last trucking market crash was in 2019. The current market could end up worse for small truckload fleets.

The freight market crash in 2019 was caused by two factors – a freight slowdown due to tariffs on Chinese imports and a surge of new fleets flooding the market, even as rates continued to fall.

Until 2019, we had never seen that many new fleets enter the market, especially during a market downturn. During 2019 an average of 7,200 fleets entered the market per month compared to an average of 5,200 fleets per month during 2008-18.

The 2019 drop in freight volumes wasn’t significant. At their deepest trough, tender volumes registered a 4.6% drop in year-over-year load requests, and that lasted for just a few short months (May-July).

Trucking is a commodity and anyone that has been around commodity markets understands that it doesn’t necessarily take a dramatic move on one side of the market to change the balance of supply/demand and cause significant price swings.

In 2019, the trucking market already had too much capacity relative to demand. The year-over-year decline was only in the mid-single digits. But, it was enough to push rates below carriers’ operating costs.

Removing the cost of diesel from the spot rate, here is what the market looked like in 2019 (van per mile):

Low: $1.51
Average: $1.59
High $1.75

We are nearing 2019’s rock-bottom, inflation-adjusted spot rates

Trucking companies have much higher operating costs now than they did in 2019, even when removing fuel from the number. Every fleet’s operating cost will be different, but using data from TCA, ACT, and FreightWaves’ own analysis, we can draw some conclusions about the cost increases that a fleet would experience in 2022 compared to 2019.

Assuming a fleet averages 6,500 miles per truck per month and purchased a four-year-old used truck in 2019 at $50,000, plus sales tax, financed for five years at 5% interest, the monthly payment would cost around $0.15/mile. With used truck prices surging during the pandemic, a four-year-old used truck last fall would run $77,000. If the vehicle was financed with similar terms, the per mile cost would be around $0.23/mile.

A driver employee with experience working for a top-paying fleet can expect to make around $0.62/mile. In 2019, the same driver would have made around $0.47/mile.

Higher variable operating costs include insurance (+$.02/mile), maintenance (+$.06/mile), equipment (+$.08/mile) and driver wages (+$.15/mile).

All in, variable costs have increased at least $0.31/mile more for fleet operators in 2022 compared to 2019. These numbers are likely understated, as they don’t include increases related to back-office operations and support staff, which can vary widely among fleets.

Adjusting the 2019 numbers, the rates per mile total:

$1.82 (low)
$1.90 (average)
$2.16 (high)

The current spot rate (net fuel) is $1.95/mile. On a variable cost-adjusted basis, the trucking spot rates have matched 2019 since May 2022 – $2.16/mile, dropping $0.21/mile. It’s likely to get worse. The month of May typically has among the highest rates we’ll see all year, with July and August being some of the weakest months.

It is conceivable that spot rates will drop below the inflation-adjusted 2019 low of $1.82 per mile in July, since there doesn’t seem to be any near-term market catalysts to drive additional demand.

U.S.- bound container volumes, which have been driving a substantial amount of the freight surge in the U.S. trucking market since 2020, are seeing a significant drop, as reported by Henry Byers, FreightWaves’ senior global trade analyst.

There are also the economic challenges that are apparent in the economy, including record-low consumer confidence, declining construction and industrial activity, surging inflation, and a Federal Reserve that is determined to slow the economy down to tame inflation, even if it means putting the economy into a recession.

All of this means that the freight market will likely encounter additional headwinds and there are more reasons to believe that trucking spot rates have further to fall.

Capacity matters

Of course, trucking is a two-sided market. Demand is only one part of the equation; capacity also matters.

Capacity is really just a function of how much dispatchable capacity is in the market. Like 2019, the trucking industry has seen a record number of new entrants enter the trucking market to take advantage of what were strong market conditions and record high spot rates created because of government stimulus over the past two years. The number of new entrants into the trucking industry nearly doubled the 2019 monthly record average. Since 2020, the monthly average of new fleets entering trucking has increased to 13,370 per month, up from 7,200. In April, the number hit 23,479.

This large number of new entrants means that the trucking industry has many companies that are brand new, have higher cost structures (because they joined when the freight market was peaking) and that have never experienced a downturn.

This massive surge of dispatchable capacity was built for a market that had much more freight activity. If the economy contracts further, it could spell disaster for many of the most vulnerable operators.

The summer doldrums

Even if the economy doesn’t contract, July and August are always slower than June. It is the time of the year when supply chains take a break and get ready for the retail surges that typically begin after Labor Day.

The retail surge is a really important part of the freight calendar and often offers some of the highest spot rate opportunities. In the first half of the year construction, auto, beverages, and fresh produce drive the surges in trucking.

In the second half of the year, surges are caused by retailers scrambling to get inventories placed for the holiday shopping season. That may not happen this year, with many retailers’ inventories overstocked. Since their warehouses and distribution centers are full, they are reluctant to add additional inventory to their supply chain and will focus their efforts on liquidating what they currently have in stock.

Trucking spot rates will not increase significantly until the Great Purge is over

As long as the market has excess capacity, freight rates will remain depressed. It will take a substantial purge of capacity before spot market carriers can expect relief.

FreightWaves editorial director Rachel Premack covered this topic last week in her article titled “the Great Purge.”

The unfortunate reality of trucking is that the market is often “feast or famine” and with so many new mouths to feed, the famine this year could be much worse than was experienced in 2019.

SWAMP STORIES

King Report

The King Report June 28, 2022 Issue 6789

Independent View of the News

  Bank of Japan’s government bond holdings exceed 50% of total
Central bank’s debt holdings hit record high in defense of its yield cap
    According to the QUICK database, the outstanding value of long-term JGBs as of June 20 totaled 1,021.1 trillion yen, of which the BOJ held 514.9 trillion yen on a face-value basis. That translates to 50.4% of the total amount outstanding, up from 50.0% in February to March 2021…
https://asia.nikkei.com/content/0b90c531d89deb5c271fa0d6b51c4966

We stated a few years ago that central banks transitioned from rigging bond markets to cornering them.

Russia defaults on its foreign-currency sovereign debt for the first time in a century
https://t.co/SbhUXotjw0

Alarm in Beijing after announcement zero-Covid policy may last five years
The notice, published on Monday afternoon, was attributed to Cai Qi, the Beijing secretary of the Chinese Communist party. The original text said: “In the next five years, Beijing will unremittingly grasp the normalisation of epidemic prevention and control.”…
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/27/alarm-in-beijing-after-announcement-zero-covid-policy-may-last-five-years

The US MSM is mum on the above story and Chinese bank runs because they do not want Americans to connect dots and realize that Covid is being used by totalitarians to control the masses.

May Durable Goods 0.7%, exp. 0.1%; Durable Goods Ex-Transports 0.7%, exp. 0.4%; Cap Goods Non-Defense Ex-Air 0.5%, exp. 0.2%; Cap Goods Shipments 0.8%, 0.2% exp. April Durable Goods revised to 0.4% from 0.5%; Ex-Trans revised to 0.2% from 0.4%; Nondef Ex-Air revised to 0.3% from 0.4%

May Pending Home Sales +0.7%, -4.0% exp.; -12.0% y/y

June Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity is a disastrous -17.7 (-7.3 in May); -6.5 was expected.

Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey   June 27, 2022
Comments from Survey Respondents – Miscellaneous Manufacturing
    “Government overspending and transfer programs have inflated the money supply while resulting in unchecked corruption and waste. We will be paying that bill for generations, and what a colossal waste of resources and missed opportunity.” https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2022/2206.aspx#tab-comments

ESUs declined sharply during Asian trading on Monday. They surged 32 handles higher by 22:36 ET. After a methodical retreat, ESUs surged on the European open. They hit a session high of 3948.00 an hour after the European open. They then tumbled to 3893.50 at 9:48 ET.

The usual suspects then poured into ESUs and stocks for the expected Monday rally. ESUs and stocks peaked near the European close. ESUs and stocks retreated until 14:00 ET. After a modest rally, ESUs sank to a new session low of 3892.50 at 15:06 ET. Someone quickly manipulated ESUs 17 handles higher in 9 minutes. Alas, ESUs then sank until they equaled the daily low of 2892.50 at 15:53 ET. A late manipulation pushed ESUs 18 handles higher by the close.

USUs hit an early peak of 136 6/32 at 18:24 ET on Sunday. They traded sideways during early Asian trading but commenced a decline at 21:00 ET that persisted until they made the daily low of 134 25/32 at 8:35 ET. A morning rally in the US pushed USUs to 135 24/32 at 9:48 ET. Thereafter, USUs sank until they rallied in concert with ESUs after 14:00 ET. USUs then traded sideways until they broke lower five minutes before the NYSE close.

Macron tells Biden that UAE, Saudi can barely raise oil output
French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday the president of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (MbZ), had told him two top OPEC oil producers, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, can barely increase oil production.
     “I had a call with MbZ,” Macron was heard telling U.S. President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the G7 summit. “He told me two things. I’m at a maximum, maximum (production capacity). This is what he claims.”   https://www.reuters.com/world/macron-tells-biden-that-uea-saudi-can-barely-raise-oil-output-2022-06-27/

Why didn’t The Big Guy know that the UAE and the Saudis were at or near oil production capacity?
The US Department of Energy reports the SPR is at 497.9m barrels, the lowest level since Feb. 1986.
http://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html

Positive aspects of previous session
Traders bought all equity dips, keeping equities at modest declines for the day

Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds declined smartly

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Are organic buyers cautious or absent?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3905.83
Previous session High/Low: 3927.72; 3889.78

EXCLUSIVE: ‘I think you’re clear.’ Reassuring VOICEMAIL from Joe Biden to Hunter about NY Times report on son’s business dealings with the Chinese proves the president DID speak to him about his relationship with a criminal dubbed the ‘spy chief of China’Hunter accidentally recorded himself referring to Ho as the ‘spy chief of China’The message flies in the face of the president’s repeated denials that he ever discussed Hunter’s overseas business dealings with his son…    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10938637/Voicemail-Joe-Biden-Hunter-proves-president-DID-speak-Chinese-business-dealings.html
Joe Biden unwittingly helped finance Hunter’s trysts with Russia-linked escorts
He managed to do so thanks in part to Joe Biden committing to wiring him a total of $100,000 to help pay his bills from December 2018 through January 2019…
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/white-house/hunter-biden-russian-escorts-joe-payments

@EPBResearch: World Dollar Liquidity is contracting at a record -21% annualized rate. WDL = Monetary Base + Foreign CB Holdings of Securities Held at the Fed
https://twitter.com/EPBResearch/status/1540396701978181632?cxt=HHwWgIC-qfOoy-AqAAAA

@SJosephBurns: The “buy the close, sell the open” strategy is now up nearly 1100% since 1993, while the “buy the open, sell the close” strategy” is still negative. via @bespokeinvest
https://twitter.com/SJosephBurns/status/1541024727535435777

It Costs $22,648 and Requires 11 Agencies to Start a Restaurant in San Francisco
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/it-costs-22648-and-requires-11-agencies-start-restaurant-san-francisco

Facebook is funding and working closely with pro-Palestine charity that is linked to alleged terror groups that revere convicted killers and had a ‘Holocaust denier’ as a guest speaker – along with Rep Rashida Tlaib  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10949955/Facebooks-trusted-partner-linked-alleged-pro-Palestine-terror-groups.html

Today – After the early buying thrusts in both Europe and the US, ESUs and stocks declined smartly with afternoon trading becoming listless. This is a traders’ rally; organic buyers are being cautious. After the rare down Monday, the usual suspects will try to orchestrate a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside.

The probability is high that today’s trading will be listless except at the usual high activity times.

ESUs are +9.75 and USUs are -1/32 at 21:00 ET. Traders are playing for a Turnaround Tuesday.

Expected econ data: May Goods Trade -$105.4B; May Wholesale Inventories 2.2% m/m, Retail Inventories 1.6%; April FHFA House Price Index 1.6% m/m; S&P CoreLogic 20-city home prices 1.85% m/m, 21.2% m/m; June Conference Board Consumer Confidence 100.0; June Richmond Fed Mfg. Activity -5; SF Fed Prez Daly 12:30 ET

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4055; 100-day MA: 4239; 150-day MA: 4369; 200-day MA: 4403
DJIA 50-day MA: 32,452; 100-day MA: 33,395; 150-day MA: 34,103; 200-day MA: 34,372

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4928.42 triggers a buy signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4204.42 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3694.10 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3837.30 triggers a sell signal

@ChadPergram: Fox confirms that Michael Stenger, the Senate Sergeant at Arms who was in charge of Senate security the day of the Capitol riot, has died. (Wow! What are the odds of this?!)

AP: More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year…a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country — Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns — in the period since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump…But nowhere is the shift more pronounced — and dangerous for Democrats — than in the suburbs, where well-educated swing voters who turned against Trump’s Republican Party in recent years appear to be swinging back… (DeSantis could increase this flux.)
https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-biden-covid-health-presidential-e50db07385831e67f866ec45402be8b9

Rep. Flores Says Pelosi Pushed Her Daughter During Photo Op (If a GOP leader did this…)
“No child should be pushed to the side for a photo op. PERIOD!!” Flores, R-Texas, posted on Twitter…
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/mayra-flores-nancy-pelosi-house/2022/06/27/id/1076214/

@JonathanTurley: Some falsely claim that it makes abortion illegal in the United States. Others falsely claim that the justices wrote an opinion opposing abortion. The decision focuses on who must decide this question, not what should be decided.

@JonathanTurley: New York Times just ran a column by Jamelle Bouie titled, “How to Discipline a Rogue Supreme Court.” It once again calls for court packing and impeachment as a response to the Court ruling in a way that Democrats oppose. Bouie writes that “the Supreme Court does not exist above the constitutional system” and “cannot shield itself from the power of other branches.” As with members like AOC, it is a pre-Marbury mentality being pushed by the media.
     Liberals appear ready to dispense with judicial independence to bring our courts in line with the commands of public opinion.

@alexdatig: ABC Flashback: Roe v. Wade Opinion Based on Lie, Jane Roe Admits Never Being Raped
https://twitter.com/alexdatig/status/1541493171900731392

@stillgray: Judging from today’s racist trends against Clarence Thomas it’s safe to say Malcolm X was right about white liberals.  https://mychal-massie.com/malcolm-x-was-right-about-white-liberals/

@AskMeLaterOn: Chicago’s Disgrace… (Classy Mayor) Lori Lightfoot @LoriLightfoot takes the stage and proclaims, “F*** Clarence Thomas.”  https://twitter.com/AskMeLaterOn/status/1541376128912334849

@SCOTUSblog: SCOTUS sides with a high school football coach in a First Amendment case about prayer at the 50-yard-line. In a 6-3 ruling, SCOTUS says the public school district violated the coach’s free speech and free exercise rights when it barred him from praying on the field after games.

CBS News: @JanCBS explains why the justices ruled the coach had a constitutional right to pray on the field after the games.  https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1541430984494784512

The SCOTUS in its decision noted that this was an individual expression, and school districts can limit coach-led praying. The coach in question did NOT ask or tell his team to pray. He prayed alone after games. Eventually some of his players joined him; then some players from other teams joined him.

For decades, liberal justices perversely used the 1^st Amendment to stifle religious expression – arguing that the 1^st Amendment calls for separation of religion and government, which meant no one could make an expression of religion on public property.

1^st Amendment: Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

Leftists, including judges, somehow interpreted ‘shall not establish religion or prohibit its free exercise’ into ‘shall not exercise religious expression on public properties’. Perhaps remedial reading should be an Ivy League law school requirement.

The Founders were clear about their intent to prohibit government from establishing a religion, and to prevent government from favoring a single religion.

@greg_price11: Sotomayor says that the Supreme Court, by allowing a football coach to pray after games, is elevating “personal religious exercises” over “society’s interest in protecting separation of church and state” (The legal logic and reasoning of communism!)

Sotomayor admits it was a ‘personal religious exercise’. Unlike the Sotomayor, we did not attend an Ivy League law school, so we are under the impression that the US Constitution and the Bill of Rights were constructed to prevent government from infringing upon individual rights, whether it was for the collective good or not! Does Sotomayor realize Congress prays in the Capitol Building?

@davidharsanyi: What’s really mind-boggling is that three justices believe that a 30 second individual prayer after a high school football game constitutes the establishment of a state-sponsored church.

Calling Justice Thomas ‘Uncle Clarence’ exposes the rotten sham that is the progressive movement
White progressives feel emboldened to use racially inflammatory language like “Uncle Tom” and “coon” directed at black people who don’t behave the way they feel is acceptably black because black progressives allow it to happen…The deep-seated hatred that progressives claim exists among the American public actually rots inside them, not us…
https://nypost.com/2022/06/27/calling-justice-thomas-uncle-clarence-exposes-the-rotten-sham-that-is-the-progressive-movement/

@latimes: Column: Is California ready for more Black people to legally carry guns in public?
(Isn’t this overtly racist? You can imagine the MSM outrage if someone like Carlson said this!)
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-06-27/supreme-court-scotus-ruling-california-black-gun-owners

Dem Candidate for U.S. Senate in S.C. Calls for ‘Secret Sleepers’ to run as Republicans, and For Straw Donations in Leaked Call (Of course the MSM is mum!)
https://amgreatness.com/2022/06/27/dem-candidate-for-u-s-senate-in-s-c-calls-for-secret-sleepers-to-run-as-republicans-and-for-straw-donations-in-leaked-call/

Clarence Thomas wants to make it easier to sue media companies for libel
“I would grant certiorari in this case to revisit the ‘actual malice’ standard,” Thomas wrote in his dissent. “This case is one of many showing how New York Times and its progeny have allowed media organizations and interest groups ‘to cast false aspersions on public figures with near impunity.’”…
https://nypost.com/2022/06/27/clarence-thomas-wants-to-make-it-easier-to-sue-media-companies-for-libel/

Trump election attorney John Eastman says FBI seized his phone
The attorney asked to see the warrant, but the officer refused and seized his iPhone Pro 12, he said…Eastman asserted that the warrant violated his Fourth Amendment rights and urged a judge to force the Department of Justice to return his phone… (Video proof shows Eastman is correct.) https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/trump-election-attorney-john-eastman-says-fbi-seized-his-phone

@greg_price11: Kamala reacts to Dobbs: “I thought about it as a parent, I thought about it as a godparent, I thought of it as an aunt of pre-school children… And a woman myself, and the daughter of a woman, and a granddaughter of a woman.”…  https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1541517879501258763

@RNCResearch: DANA BASH: “Inflation is really high. Are you concerned about a recession?”
KAMALA HARRIS: “I think that there can be no higher priority than what we have been clear is our highest priority.”   https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1541553872354803712

Funny & sad Kamala Harris impersonation: https://twitter.com/LadyPieLives/status/1541226769763766272

New York Supreme Court strikes down NYC law allowing noncitizen residents to vote in city elections   https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/new-york-supreme-court-strikes-down-law-allowing-noncitizen-residents-vote

NY Post’s @mirandadevine: New Danish research shows cannabis may account for 25 percent of schizophrenia cases developing among young men. But keep subsidizing and promoting Big Weed, New York   https://twitter.com/mirandadevine/status/1541144257607647232?s=02

Greg Hunter:

SEE YOU ON WEDNESDAY

douglas cundey	8:28 AM (6 minutes ago)
to Chris, William, Bill, me

Robert Hryniak	4:41 PM (22 minutes ago)
to