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GOLD PRICE CLOSE: UP $3.85 to $16453.55

SILVER PRICE CLOSE:  UP $0.17 to $19.37

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1653.20

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 19.36

New: early yesterday morning//

Bitcoin morning price: $19,287 DOWN 132

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $20,240 UP 821

Platinum price closing DOWN $0.85 AT  $921.45

Palladium price; closing DOWN $37.25  at $1932.50

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD $2248.90 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ DOWN $13.61 CDN DOLLARS

BRITISH GOLD IN POUNDS: 1441,04 POUNDS PER OZ DOWN 19.72 BRITISH POUNDS PER OZ/

EURO GOLD: 1658.69EUROS PER OZ// DOWN 12.30 EUROS PER OZ///

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

 EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,648.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/24/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 10/26/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

---

132 C SG AMERICAS 2
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 4
880 C CITIGROUP 2

---

TOTAL: 4 4
MONTH TO DATE: 23,307

JPMORGAN STOPPED  0/4 

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT CONTRACT:    4 NOTICES FOR 400 OZ  or 0.01264 TONNES

total notices so far: 23,307 contracts for 2,330,700 oz (72.494 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 2 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 10,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  452 :  for 2,260,000  oz

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---

END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $3.85

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES INTO THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 17 CENTS

AT THE SLV// :/BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.073 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 487.683 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 237  CONTRACTS TO 137,971  AND FURTHER FROM  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR   $0.06 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY.  OUR BANKERS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.06)., AND UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A SMALL GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGE OF 159 CONTRACTS. SOME SPECS CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR SHORTFALLS FROM WHICH OUR  BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. SOME SPEC LONGS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS 

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) ZERO  SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS BUT SOME SHORT ADDITIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /// SOME NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.580 MILLION OZ FOLLOWING AN 10,000 OZ QUEUE. JUMP    / //  V)   SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ 

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: –21

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 19days, total 56,255 contracts: 28.113. million oz  OR 1.479MILLION OZ PER DAY. (295 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 28.113  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  27.940 MILLION OZ INITIAL

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 237 WITH OUR   $0.06 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 375 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT. OF 1.580 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 QUEUE JUMP  .. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 138 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 0.690 MILLION  OZ..

 WE HAD 2  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  10,000  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A SMALL SIZED 3259 CONTRACTS  TO 444,410 AND CLOSER TO FROM TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -880  CONTRACTS.

.

THE FAIR SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR SMALL LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.80//COMEX GOLD TRADING/MONDAY //  MINOR SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AND CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS BUT MAJOR SPEC SHORT COVERINGS.   // CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF  8200 OZ//NEW STANDING 73.679TONNES (QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF  $1.80 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 5450 OI CONTRACTS 16.95 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2191 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 444,410

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5450 CONTRACTS  WITH 3259 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2191 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4570 CONTRACTS OR 14.214 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2191) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (3259): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 5450 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS/// SOME SPEC SHORT COVERINGS// STRONG NEWBIE SPEC  ADDITIONS  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 8200 OZ QUEUE. JUMP ///NEW STANDING 73.736 TONNES//.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4)  FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT. :

45,735 CONTRACTS OR 4,573,500 OZ OR 142.26 TONNES 19 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2407 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 19  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 142.26 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  142.25/3550 x 100% TONNES  4.00% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  142.25  TONNES INITIAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW   NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, FELL  BY A SMALL SIZED 237 CONTRACT OI TO  137,971 AND FURTHER FROM   OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 375 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 375  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  375 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI LOSS OF 237  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 375  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN  OF 138  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 0.795 MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.06

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.27 PTS OR 0.04%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 15.10 OR 0.10%    /The Nikkei closed UP 275.38PTS OR 1.02%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.22%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.3087 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.3632//    /Oil DOWN TO 83.38 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92.03    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A FAIR SIZED 3259 CONTRACTS TO 443,530 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS SMALL  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED  WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $1.80  IN GOLD PRICING  MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2191 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2191 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC : 2191  & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2191 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED  TOTAL OF 5450  CONTRACTS IN THAT 2191 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED  COMEX OI GAIN OF 3259  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS GOOD SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL LOSS IN PRICE OF GOLD $1.80//WE HAD SOME SPEC SHORTS ADDITIONS,  WITH BANKERS  AS BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS.  WE ALSO HAD SOME ADDITIONAL  NEWBIE SPECS GOING LONG

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING OCT   (73.736),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  73.736 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT FELL $1.80) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS// SPEC SHORTS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2379 CONTRACTS //     WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR GAIN  OF 14.214 PAPER TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (73.736 TONNES)…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $1.80 

WE HAD +880  CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES ADDED. THESE WERE ADDED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5450 CONTRACTS OR 545000  OZ OR  16.95 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 144,535//  poor//

final gold volumes/yesterday  180,624/ poor

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR OCT ’22 COMEX GOLD //OCT 25

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	51,114.890oz Brinks   Manfra Malca HSBC
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	4   notice(s) 400  OZ 0.01244 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	399 contracts  39900 oz 1.24105  TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	23,307 notices 2,330,700 72.494 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	xxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits  nil oz

 customer withdrawals:4

i) Out of Manfra:  7,233.975 oz  223 kilobars

ii) Out of Brinks 64.302 OZ (2 kilobars)

iii) Out of Malca  10,706.283 oz (333 kilobars)

iv) Out of HSBC:  33,110.330 oz

total:  51,114.890  oz

total in tonnes: 1.58 tonnes

Adjustments: 4//    dealer to customer//huge activity

i)Delaware: 9477.273 oz

ii) Out of Brinks 64,719.963 oz

iii) Out of JPMorgan:  153m955.837 oz

iv) Out of Malca:  5,362.999 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.

For the front month of OCT we have an  oi of 403 contracts having LOST 127 contracts . We had  145 contracts

filed on MONDAY, so we GAINED A STRONG 82 contracts or an additional 8200 oz will  stand in this active delivery month of Oct.  From this point 

we should gain in total gold standing through to the end of Oct.( This is queue jumping and in reality it is the exercising of London based EFP;s for gold at the comex)

November LOST ONLY 7 contracts to stand at 3623 (WE ARE GOING TO HAVE AN EXTRAORDINARILY LARGE NOV.GOLD DELIVERY)

December LOST 2239 contracts DOWN to 356,241

We had 145 notice(s) filed today for 14,500 oz FOR THE OCT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 4 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (23,307) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (OCT 403 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 4 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,370,600 OZ  OR 73.736 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of OCT. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (23,307) x 100 oz+   (403)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (4} x 100 oz} which equals 2,368,800 oz standing OR 73.736  TONNES in this NON active delivery month of OCTOBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  73.736 TONNES  (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR OCT (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR AN ACTIVE MONTH)

 WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT. WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,988,249.858 OZ   61.84 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  25,421,186.689 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,631,353.307  OZ (361.78tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,789,833,882 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,643,105 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 299.94 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

OCT 25//INITIAL OCT SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,552,996,026 oz Brinks Delaware CNT JPMorgan Loomis
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	1,843,443.096 oz Delaware HSBC Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)	2 CONTRACT(S)    (10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	233 contracts  (1,165,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	452 contracts  2,260,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  5 withdrawals out of the customer account

i) Out of CNT: 117,652.336 oz

ii) out of Brinks  184,973.400 oz

iii) Out of jPMorgan: 1,1162,015.900 oz

iv) Out of Delaware 8,152.950 oz

vi) Out of Loomis: 89,201.440 oz

Total withdrawals:  1,552,996.026 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 157.073million oz/303.0621million =51.81% of comex 

 Comex deposits: 3

i) Into Delaware  36,607.746 oz
ii)Into HSBC: 624,793.500 oz

iii) Into Loomis:  1,182,041.85 oz

total:  1,843k443.096 oz

 adjustments: 2

Manfra: dealer to customer:  133,739.462 oz

Delaware customer to dealer 9,445.310 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 35.917 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 303.062 MILLION OZ (also declining)

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF OCT OI: 235 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST4 CONTRACT(S.) 

WE HAD 6 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO WE  GAINED 2 

SILVER CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 OZ WILL  STAND FOR OCT. 

NOVEMBER LOST 34 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 258

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 1587 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 109,050

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 2 for  10,000 oz

Comex volumes:61,672// est. volume today// fair   

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 88,347 contracts ( good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  452 x 5,000 oz = 2,260,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT(235) and the number of notices served upon today 2 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the OCT./2022 contract month: 452 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (235)  – number of notices served upon today (2) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates 3,425,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:55,335// est. volume today//    poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 64,723 contracts ( fair)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $3.85: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.39 TONNES

OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.10 TONNES

OCT 21/WITH GOLD UP $19.10: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES

OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.73 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65:: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.81 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.10 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.55: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.13 TONNES

OCT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD// CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $33.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.89 TONNES

OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES

SEPT 30  WITH GOLD UP $3.75 TODAY : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.15 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.85 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.16 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $32.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.549 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.47 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.15: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.23 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.03 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 928.39 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

OCT 25/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.083 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.683 MILLION OZ/

OCT 24/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .553 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.610 MILLION OZ//

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.163MILLION OZ//

OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .921 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.703 MILLION OZ//

OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AWITHDRAWAL OF 1.105 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.624 MILLION OZ///

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.658 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.729 MILLION OZ///

OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.071 MILLION OZ//

OCT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.211 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.920 MILLION OZ//

OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.709 MILLION OZ//

Oct 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.066 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.447 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.617  MILLION OZ//

OCT 4WITH SILVER UP $.51 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ

OCT 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.904 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.549 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 737.000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.931 MILLION

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/

CLOSING INVENTORY 487.683 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Peter Schiff: When The Sucker’s Rally Ends, The Dollar Will Crash

TUESDAY, OCT 25, 2022 – 03:34 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

The world loves dollars. Whenever there is a problem, people flock to the dollar as a safe haven. But the US has problems of its own. In a podcast, Peter Schiff said America’s problems will eventually catch up to the dollar and at that point, the greenback will crash.

Former British Prime Minister Liz Truss blew into office promising tax cuts in the face of historically high inflation. On the one hand, the Bank of England has been raising interest rates – a contractionary monetary policy. But tax cuts with no corresponding spending cuts increase budget deficits – an inflationary fiscal policy. The British markets recognized this contradiction. The British pound tanked and plunged to a record low.

The government quickly backtracked on the tax cuts and Truss ended up stepping down.

This raises a question that US policymakers need to wrestle with. Why exactly were the British markets concerned about tax cuts?

As Peter pointed out, they were concerned about increasing debts. The debt to GDP ratio in Great Britain is already around 85%.

Now, that is a big number. It is a number that should cause concern. I think, really, anything above 50% of GDP is too big a number. So, because these tax cuts threatened to send British debt to GDP even higher, investors rightly dumped the pound.”

But what did they do?

They bought dollars.

They sold pounds for dollars. But they were selling pounds because Britain has a debt problem. The irony is they were buying dollars despite the fact that the United States has an even bigger debt problem.”

The US national debt pushed above $31 trillion in early October. And the US government continues to pile onto that number. Uncle Sam ran a $1.3 trillion deficit in fiscal 2022. The debt to GDP ratio in the US is already 125%.

And as Peter pointed out, it is actually higher than 125% when you factor in state and local debt. When you include state and municipal debt, the ratio balloons to 140%.

We’re in a much bigger fiscal mess than Great Britain. So, selling pounds and buying dollars because you’re worried that Britain has too much debt is jumping from the frying pan into the fire.”

Why are people doing this? Because there is a perception that US debt doesn’t matter because the dollar serves as the global reserve currency. Therefore, the US dollar is the go-to when there is a problem, even if the problem is bigger in the US. Peter recalled that when S&P downgraded US Treasuries, people bought US Treasuries because they were worried about the downgrade.

People bought US Treasuries as a safe haven from US Treasuries. That shows you how ridiculous it is.”

In the same way, it’s absurd to sell a country’s currency because you’re worried about debt and buy dollars when the US has even more debt.

It’s important to factor state and municipal debt into the equation in the US because all of these governments are funding themselves from the same tax base.

These governments are trying to get blood from the same turnips. Because Americans are broke. We have no savings. So, can we possibly repay this debt? Of course not. Repaying the debt is impossible. So, what’s going to happen? We’re going to default.”

Peter said there are two possible ways the US can default — the honest way or the dishonest way.

But either is a disaster if you own US Treasuries. The honest way is just to admit that we can’t pay and we default. We restructure the debt and we tell our creditors, ‘You are not going to get your money.’ But I don’t think politicians have the integrity to do that. They’re going to take the coward’s way out. They’re going to print. They’re going to inflate the debt away. That’s the only way out of this problem — monetize that debt and repudiate it through inflation, which is why it’s crazy for anyone to believe that the Fed is going succeed in reducing inflation back down to 2%. It can’t succeed.”

The government can’t inflate the debt away at 2% per year. They actually need higher inflation to handle the debt.

There’s another problem. The only reason the US government has been able to push the debt down the road for this long is that interest rates have been low. As rates go up, the problem gets bigger.

This is why Peter calls this a sucker’s rally. And when it ends, the dollar will crash.

END

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

The huge stockpiles of copper is  now gone as our two major traders , JPmorgan and ICBC Standard Bank have abandoned ship.  Copper supplies nowhere to be find, exactly like zinc and identical to nickel

what a mess

(Bloomberg/Cang Farchy)

With Shanghai stockpile gone, copper market ‘like a room full of gunpowder’

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-10-24 09:35Section: Daily Dispatches

China’s Billion-Dollar Cash-for-Copper Trade Grinds to a Halt

Alfred Cang and Jack Farchy
Bloomberg News 
via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California
Sunday, October 23, 2022

For the past 15 years the center of gravity of the global copper market has been a row of warehouses in Shanghai’s free-trade zone where the Yangtze River meets the Pacific.

Traders from London to Lima would obsess over the flows in and out of Shanghai’s huge bonded copper stockpile. It was the focal point for a multi-billion-dollar cash-for-copper trade, whereby Chinese companies would use metal as collateral for cheap financing. A cottage industry of analysts sprang up to estimate the size of what became the world’s largest cache of copper metal.

But now China’s bonded warehouses are all but empty. The once-frenetic flow of metal into the stockpile has come to a juddering halt as two dominant financiers of Chinese metals, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and ICBC Standard Bank, have halted new business there. Numerous traders and bankers interviewed by Bloomberg said they believe the trade is dead for now, and some predicted the bonded stocks could drop to zero, or close to it.

The implications are being felt across the market as the world’s largest copper consumer becomes more reliant on imports to meet its near-term needs at a time when global stocks are already at historically low levels. The Chinese copper market is at its tightest in more than a decade as traders pay massive premiums for immediate supplies.

For now, the miners, traders and financiers arriving in London this weekend for the annual LME Week jamboree are largely cautious on the near-term prospects for copper, given concerns about the global economy. But many in the market say they are braced for price spikes when the macroeconomic news eventually improves. And without its buffer of bonded stocks, any pickup in Chinese demand could have an explosive effect on the market.

“The physical market is so tight, it’s like a room full of gunpowder — any spark and the whole thing could blow,” said David Lilley, chief executive of hedge fund Drakewood Capital Management Ltd. Without the Shanghai bonded inventory, “we are living without a safety net.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.yahoo.com/now/china-billion-dollar-cash-copper-003010810.html

end

Ronan Manly is reporting what I have been seeing: the Comex is running out of silver fast.  And Manly reports the same for the LBMA silver

(zerohedge)

Ronan Manly: LBMA and Comex running out of silver fast

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-10-24 19:51Section: Daily Dispatches

7:50p ET Monday, October 24, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star monetary metals analyst Ronan Manly writes today that silver inventories in the London Bullion Market Association system are at a record low, having fallen for 10 months straight, and that silver inventories at the New York Commodities Exchange are at a five-year low.

His analysis is headlined “Comex Deliverable Silver Far Less than Imagined as 50% of ‘Eligible’ Is Not Available” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/comex-deliverable-silver-far-less-than-imagined-as-50-of-eligible-is-not-available/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Biden is now targeting Nicaragua’s gold

(Reuters)

U.S. mining sanctions take aim at Nicaragua’s gold

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2022-10-24 21:17Section: Daily Dispatches

By Tyler Clifford and Susan Heavey
Reuters
Monday, October 24, 2022

U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration today ratcheted up economic pressure on Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega’s government through a series of steps targeting the country’s mining, gold, and other sectors.

Biden signed an executive order that includes the authority to ban U.S. companies from doing business in Nicaragua’s gold industry, while the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Nicaragua’s mining authority, along with another top government official, the department said in a statement. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-imposes-new-sanctions-aimed-pressuring-nicaraguas-ortega-2022-10-24/

END

4.  OTHER PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD COMMENTARIES

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: DIESEL

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.3087 

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.3632

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.27 PTS OR .04%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 15.10 OR 0.10% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 275.38 PTS OR 1.02%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL MIXED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  111.93/Euro FALLS TO 0.98630

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.250/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 148.89/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.2315%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.454%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.31%…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.73//

3j Gold at $1644.35//silver at: 18.93  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND 22/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 61.40//

3m oil into the 84 dollar handle for WTI and  92 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 148.89DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 1.0023– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9886well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.1670% DOWN 7 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.338% DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,61…GETTTING DANGEROUS

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.7140%

end

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

Futures Trade In Narrow Range Ahead Of Tech Giant Earnings

TUESDAY, OCT 25, 2022 – 08:10 AM

US equity futures erased modest earlier gains and traded modestly in the red, after rebounding from session lows as they struggled for direction while investors awaited major earnings reports and weighed last week’s conflicting comments from central bankers who are now in a blackout period. As of 7:30am, contracts on the S&P 500 dropped 0.1% to 3,803 after positive corporate results boosted the underlying index on Monday; on Tuesday, Coca-Cola, General Motors and United Parcel Service all beat analysts’ earnings estimates, while 3M and General Electric fell short.  Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp. are among major companies still reporting after the close. Nasdaq 100 futures were flat, with traders awaiting earnings after market hours from tech giants including Microsoft, Texas Instruments and Alphabet. Treasury yields tumbled for a second day and the dollar was steady even as the Yuan plunged to the lowest on record after the weakest PBOC fix since 2008.

“While the earnings season could still produce many surprises, the outcome so far is consistent with our advice to favor more defensive parts of the market, such as healthcare and consumer staples,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.

In pre-market trading, US-listed Chinese stocks staged a limited rebound after losing almost $80 billion of market value in a record selloff that pushed the shares to their lowest level in over nine years. Major internet companies including Alibaba, JD.com and Pinduoduo gained at least 2% each. Facebook Meta Platforms was slightly weak after a global outage on its WhatsApp messaging service, while broker KeyBanc cut price targets on the stock, as well as on Alphabet, citing skepticism of revenue growth amid mounting concerns of a downturn in 2023. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Weber stock surged 22% in US premarket trading as BDT Capital Partners has proposed to buy the shares it doesn’t already own for $6.25 per share in cash.
• Mullen Automotive rose as much as 20% in US premarket trading, set to extend its four-day rising streak. Shares closed up by about a third on Monday after the firm secured exclusive sales rights for the I-GO electric vehicle, in select European markets.
• Taysha Gene Therapies shares surge as much as 60% in US premarket trading, putting the stock on track for a record gain, after Japanese pharmaceutical company Astellas Pharma said it will take a 15% stake in the US gene therapy developer for $50m.
• US-listed Chinese stocks rose in US premarket trading on Tuesday, following a rebound across Hong Kong peers which bounced back from Monday’s historic selloff. Alibaba (BABA US) +2.5%, Baidu (BIDU US) +2.9%, JD.com (JD US) +3.3%, Nio (NIO US) +2%, Li Auto (LI US) +3%, XPeng (XPEV US) +2.7%
• Linde shares dropped 1.9% in US premarket trading after the company said holders will vote on delisting shares from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The move would force Europe-only investors to sell their stakes, according to analysts.
• Packaging Corp shares fell 1.7% in US postmarket trading on Tuesday as the company’s 4Q guidance was lighter than expected, analysts said, pointing to weaker demand as the containerboard maker grapples with the impact of cost inflation, overshadowing a beat in 3Q adjusted earnings per share.
• Crown Holdings shares fell 9.4% in US after-hours trading on Monday with analysts pointing to a slowdown in demand as the main reason for the packaging products maker’s lowered guidance for both the 4Q and year, alongside a strong US dollar, higher European energy costs and increased interest expense.
• Keep an eye on Alphabet and Meta (META US) as their price targets were cut at KeyBanc, with the brokerage noting that investors are increasingly skeptical of revenue growth amid mounting concerns of a downturn in 2023.
• Watch Arista Networks stock as it was cut to neutral from outperform and PT slashed to a street-low $110 from $185 at Credit Suisse, with the broker seeing more challenging dynamics for the cloud networking group into 2023.

According to Bloomberg data, about a fifth of S&P 500 companies had posted third-quarter earnings before today, with more than half outperforming estimates. Still, investors are concerned the effects of a slowing economy will be felt further down the line, with the Fed set to raise interest rates next week even as the economy shows signs of flagging.

“What we’ve seen throughout the year is that equity risk premia have really compressed,” Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Goldman Sachs managing director for portfolio strategy, said on Bloomberg TV. “That makes you more vulnerable if you disappoint on growth, cash flows, et cetera. For now that hasn’t happened really, but all the lead indicators are pointing to risks in this direction.”

Manufacturing and services data for the US underwhelmed on Monday, indicating Federal Reserve rate hikes are beginning to slow activity. Fed officials have entered a blackout period ahead of the central bank’s meeting next week, where it’s expected to raise rates 75 basis points. Investors are starting to speculate that the central bank may be approaching the end of its aggressive tightening campaign.

“Investors are getting more confident that inflation will soften as the consumer rethinks massive purchases,” said Edward Moya, a senior markets analyst at OANDA Corp. “Fed rate-hike expectations will remain volatile, but expectations are growing that a weaker economy will let the Fed pause their tightening after the February policy meeting.”

“Even if optimism remains alive, investors are likely to need concrete evidence of monetary and economic improvements before driving stock indexes higher,” said Pierre Veyret, a technical analyst at ActivTrades. “Until then, it’s only investors buying rumours.”

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index erased an early advance, with chemicals the worst-performing sector as Linde Plc dropped after proposing to de-list from the Frankfurt exchange. Spain’s IBEX outperforms peers, adding 0.5%, FTSE 100 lags, dropping 0.4%. Banks underperformed as the ECB considers curbing windfall profits from rising interest rates, while HSBC Holdings Plc plunged more than 7% after reporting higher-than-expected charges for possible loan losses. The most notable mover was Adidas, which slumps as much as 3.9%, sinking to lowest since March 2016 after the German sportswear company announced plans to end a partnership with Kanye West, while the firm also received a downgrade from Morgan Stanley. On the plus side, UBS Group AG buoyed financial services after it exceeded earnings estimates, while technology stocks climbed after software developer SAP SE’s third-quarter revenue beat. Here are all the notable European movers:

• SAP shares gained as much as 4.7% after the software firm reported 3Q revenue and operating profit ahead of estimates, helped by strong growth in its cloud business, with gross margin and backlog strong despite macro uncertainties.
• Air Liquide climbs as much as 4.7%, the most since March, after company delivered “strong set of results,” Stifel says in note as 3Q revenue beat estimates.
• UBS Group shares extend gains to as much as 6.0%, the most since June, after it reported net income for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate, driven by the investment bank and global wealth management divisions, which benefited from higher rates.
• Universal Music Group rises as much as 9.8%, the most since IPO in 2021, after Citi wrote that Apple’s price increase would “give comfort to UMG bulls.”
• Novartis shares shake off early losses to trade steady after the company released 3Q results that were broadly in line with expectations, with a small increase to the outlook for generics unit Sandoz a positive surprise, analysts say.
• Linde shares drop as much as 7.9%, the most intraday since February, after saying holders will vote on delisting shares from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.
• HSBC shares drop as much as 8.2% in London, the most in six months, after the lender announced a change of chief financial officer and reported higher-than- expected loan loss charges in its third-quarter results.
• Alfa Laval drops as much as 11.3%, the most since May, as 3Q showed a “big margin miss,” impacted by weak trading in the Marine and Food & Water divisions, Citi writes.
• Viaplay shares drop as much as 31%, the most on record, after Nordic streaming company cut its guidance on slower growth in its Nordic business.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks climbed, helped by a rebound in Chinese technology shares that followed Monday’s steep losses in the wake of the Communist Party congress. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.9% before paring the advance to 0.3%, boosted by gains in internet giants Alibaba and JD.com. A gauge of Chinese tech stocks erased an early loss of almost 3% to jump by a similar magnitude, as Alibaba Health and JD Health climbed. Tech and materials shares in the broader region fell. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and on the mainland whipsawed in volatile trading, closing marginally lower. Sentiment remains fragile after the dramatic selloff Monday following Xi Jinping’s move to secure his grip on power and amid ongoing concern over the nation’s Covid-zero policy. 

“Without reopening, visibility on China’s economy and corporate earnings will remain very low, and risk-off trade in the stock market may continue,” BofA Securities strategists, including Winnie Wu, wrote in a note. Value stocks will likely outperform growth stocks, and the onshore market may outperform offshore, they added. China Budget Gap Widens to 7.16t Yuan as Covid, Property Weigh Vietnamese equities fell before reversing losses after the central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates by another one percentage point. Shares in Japan climbed for a second day amid optimism over corporate earnings and hopes for an eventual slowdown in Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

“We’re certainly staying away from the Chinese market right now because the political scene is not favorable,” Laila Pence, president of Pence Wealth Management, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “There’s a lot less risk in the US and just as much upside.”

Japanese stocks climbed, following an extended rally in US peers, as investors assessed the potential for good corporate earnings amid continued monetary tightening by the Fed.  The Topix rose 1.1% to close at 1,907.14, while the Nikkei advanced 1% to 27,250.28. Keyence Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, rising 2.9%. Out of 2,166 stocks in the index, 1,584 rose and 477 fell, while 105 were unchanged. Stocks are getting a boost from the potential slowdown of Fed interest rate hikes, and US earnings “are not that bad,” said Naoki Fujiwara, chief fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management. “Japanese earnings are not that bad as well, with the weak yen, and price pass-throughs have shown up this quarter so domestic-oriented companies are expected to perform better.”

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.3% to close at 6,798.60, extending gains for a second day, as property and financial sectors supported the benchmark. Traders are also awaiting the unveiling of Australia’s budget later on Tuesday. The nation’s budget deficit in fiscal 2023 is forecast to be less than half the level anticipated by the previous administration in March, bolstered by windfall revenue from surging commodity prices. Read: Australia Budget Expected to Rock Stocks From Housing to Mining In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 1.1% to 10,902.31.

In rates, treasuries traded at the best levels of the day into early US session, following wider gains across bunds where long-end of the curve is richer by up to 10bp. Treasuries rally led by intermediates, stretching 5s30s spread past 4bp and onto steepest levels since Sept. 13. Focal points of US session include start of auction cycle with 2-year at 1pm New York time. US yields richer by as much as 7bp across 5- to 7-year sector with 2s5s30s fly dropping 5bp as belly outperforms; 10-year yields around 4.1585% with bunds outperforming by 2.5bp and gilts underperforming by 2.5bp anticipating new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s fiscal plans over the coming days. German bonds rally ahead of the ECB rate decision this week, led by the long-end. Bunds 10-year yield down ~6.5bps to 2.26%. Peripheral spreads tighten to Germany with 10y BTP/Bund narrowing 5.2bps to 219.8bps.  The US auction cycle includes $42b 2-year note followed by $43b 5-year Wednesday and $35b 7- year Thursday. WI 2-year around 4.455% is above auction stops since 2007 and ~16.5bp cheaper than last month’s, which tailed by 1.6bp.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index steadied and the greenback traded mixed versus its Group-of-10 peers. Here’s how all other majors did:

• The pound led gains and UK government bonds advanced, led by the long end, as investors awaited more details on economic and fiscal policy from the incoming prime minister, who takes office later in the day.
• The euro erased gains, after rising toward $0.99 in Asian trading. Bunds extended yesterday’s advance, while Italian bonds stretched gains to a fourth session, the longest run since November 2021, as money markets pared ECB tightening bets ahead of Thursday’s policy outcome. Germany Oct. IFO business confidence index came in at 84.3 versus estimate 83.5.
• The yen was little changed as traders remained wary of further intervention by authorities, while a drop in US yields weighed on the greenback. Super-long government bonds rallied. Front-end volatility in dollar-yen retreats sharply as the latest round of Japanese intervention makes the case for tighter ranges.
• The Australian dollar inched up. Gains were tempered by elevated Covid case numbers in China and iron ore falling to its lowest level since November. The New Zealand dollar swung to a loss in European trading; the government said it’s made no decision yet on raising the minimum wage for the next year.
• The onshore yuan fell by the most among Asian peers to its lowest level since 2007 after the PBOC’s weaker fixing was interpreted by traders as a sign for a weaker currency. One-month implied volatility of USD/CNH rose to 10.46%, the highest on record in data back to 2011. China’s foreign exchange regulator is consulting some banks on positioning in the currency market as the yuan declines to the lowest levels since 2008, Reuters reports, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter. PBOC adjusted rules to allow companies to borrow more from overseas, enabling more foreign capital inflows at a time when the currency is plunging to fresh 2008 lows against the dollar.

In commodities, WTI trades within Monday’s range, falling 0.6% to near $84 with crude benchmarks pressured amid the general risk tone with sentiment slipping throughout the morning amid a resilient USD and Ifo pointing to a German recession. Currently, WTI and Brent Dec contracts are lower by just over 1% or USD 1/bbl and reside at session lows of USD 83.50/bbl and USD 92/bbl respectively. IEA’s Birol said the OPEC+ decision to cut output by 2mln BPD is a risky one especially as several economies are on the brink of recession; the Global LNG market to tighten further next year as European imports increase and China’s appetite may rebound, via Reuters.

Bitcoin is pressured but within a narrow USD 200 range that is itself a similar magnitude above the USD 19k mark.

Looking to the day ahead now and economic indicators in store will feature the Conference Board consumer confidence index for October, Richmond Fed manufacturing index and August FHFA house price index for the US. In Europe, we will get October Ifo survey for Germany and the Eurozone bank lending survey will also be published. The earnings line-up for today will be key, featuring most prominently Microsoft and Alphabet after the US market close. Earlier in the day, we will hear from Coca-Cola, General Electric, General Motors and UPS. Other notable names reporting will feature Visa, Novartis, Texas Instruments, Raytheon Technologies, HSBC, SAP, 3M, UBS, ADM, Valero Energy, Chipotle, Biogen, Halliburton, Spotify and Norsk Hydro.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.2% at 3,800.00
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 402.68
• MXAP up 0.4% to 134.79
• MXAPJ little changed at 430.13
• Nikkei up 1.0% to 27,250.28
• Topix up 1.1% to 1,907.14
• Hang Seng Index little changed at 15,165.59
• Shanghai Composite little changed at 2,976.28
• Sensex down 0.1% to 59,750.45
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,798.62
• Kospi little changed at 2,235.07
• German 10Y yield down 2.6% at 2.27%
• Euro down 0.1% at $0.9863
• Brent Futures down 1.2% to $92.13/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,642.86
• U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 112.031

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• Two younger officials promoted to the Communist Party’s ranks are standing out as the most likely candidates to be tasked with steering the People’s Bank of China through challenging economic times
• The era of negative-yielding global bonds looks tantalizingly close to an end, with Japan’s two-year yield on the cusp of breaking above zero for the first time since 2015
• New Zealand’s central bank is “hopeful” that inflation has peaked, even though it was higher than anyone expected in the third quarter, Chief Economist Paul Conway said
• China’s central bank adjusted rules to allow companies to borrow more from overseas, enabling more foreign capital inflows at a time when the currency is plunging to fresh 2008 lows against the dollar
• The offshore yuan fell to a fresh record low after the People’s Bank of China loosened its grip on the tightly controlled fixing by setting the rate at the weakest level in 14 years
• New Zealand’s central bank is “hopeful” that inflation has peaked, even though it was higher than anyone expected in the third quarter, chief economist Paul Conway said
• Australia’s budget deficit in fiscal 2023 is set to be less than half the level anticipated by the previous administration in March, bolstered by windfall revenue from surging commodity prices
• Oil steadied as traders assessed near-term supply tightness in the crude market and broad appetite for risk assets including commodities
• WhatsApp Appears to Have Outage, With Thousands Reporting Issues
• US Stays China Course, Works on Biden Meeting as Xi Cements Grip
• Carney Addresses ‘Tension’ After Bankers Balked at CO2 Proposal
• Oil Steadies as Market Tightness Vies With Slowdown Concerns
• Fed Is Losing Billions, Wiping Out Profits That Funded Spending
• China Rout Puts Focus on Stocks With Foreign Holdings, BofA Says
• Carnival Unit Halts Asia Cruises as China Covid Zero Bites
• Xi Rewards Combat-Ready China Generals Amid Taiwan Tensions
• Warner Bros. Discovery Expects Billions in Restructuring Charges
• Barrack Testifies Trump Presidency Was ‘Disastrous’ for Him
• Sunak Expected to Keep Hunt as He Readies New UK Cabinet
• Tesla Options Hint at Trouble Ahead With Bets Around $200
• State Street’s CEO Says Private Credit Can Lower Risk for Banks
• VIX’s Tandem Swings With S&P 500 Show Options Obsession Persists
• What the Alzheimer’s Drug Breakthrough Means for Other Diseases

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks eventually traded higher following a firm lead from Wall Street, with the Chinese market experiencing a choppy session overnight. ASX 200 held onto gains as the clock ticks down for the unveiling of the Australian Federal Budget, with gains in the index led by financials, telecoms and healthcare. Nikkei 225 remained above the 27,000 mark as its manufacturing stocks kept the index buoyed. KOSPI was supported by the chip sector but gains were capped as South Korean President Yoon said North Korea has completed preparations for a seventh nuclear test, whilst South Korean consumer inflation expectations also ticked up from the prior month. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were volatile throughout the session and both indices swung between gains and losses with the former dipping under the 15,000 mark at one point – desks pointed to continued angst following the CCP National Congress. The indices later surged whilst there were unconfirmed reports of Chinese intervention in the stock market.

Top Asian News

• US Treasury Secretary Yellen is unaware of Japan’s FX intervention and Tokyo hasn’t informed them.
• PBoC relaxed cross-border funding by raising the macroprudential parameter to 1.25 from 1.
• PBoC injected CNY 230bln via 7-day reverse repos at a maintained rate of 2.00% for a daily injection of CNY 228bln
• China State Planner said China is to promote the expansion of foreign investments focusing on the manufacturing industry.
• Japan kept its overall economic view unchanged that the economy is picking up moderately, and added that “full attention” must be paid to market volatility. Govt raised Capex view for the first time in eight months; downgrades view on imports.
• Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki does not comment on daily forex moves, ready to take appropriate action on FX movements if necessary; watching FX with a high sense of urgency. Suzuki said they are in constant communication with US authorities and he is aware of US Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comments that she did not know about Japan’s intervention.
• Japanese government official citing BoJ Governor Kuroda said sharp one-sided JPY weakening is not desirable for the economy; BoJ will work closely with govt to monitor financial and currency market moves and their impact on Japan’s economy and prices
• Japanese PM Kishida is to appoint former Health Minister Goto as the new economy minister to replace Yamagiwa, via NHK.
• Japan FX intervention on October 24th has been estimated at JPY 700-900bln, according to calculation provided by a market source to Reuters.
• South Korean Oct 12-month consumer median inflation expectation 4.3% (prev. 4.2% in Sep), according to the BoK.
• RBNZ Chief Economist said the RBNZ anticipates that inflationary pressures will ease and notes that falling house prices are expected to slow consumption.
• Australian Federal Budget: 2022/23 budget deficit seen at 1.5% of GDP, 2023/24 seen at 1.8% of GDP, 2024/25 seen at 2.0% of GDP. Click here for full details.

European bourses are on the backfoot despite a firmer open as participants digest numerous heavyweight earnings and the latest Ifo ahead of key US prints; Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%. Sectors post outperformance in Media and Tech following Apple’s pricing update and SAP +4.0%, respectively, while Chemicals are pressured as heavyweight Linde considers a Frankfurt delisting. Stateside, futures are pressured and having been moving in-tandem with European bourses as we look to heavyweight US names; ES -0.4%. United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) Q3 2022 (USD): EPS 2.96 (exp. 2.84), Revenue 24.2bln (exp. 24.32bln).

Top European News

• Sky News sources suggest Jeremy Hunt is to remain UK Chancellor, while Penny Mordaunt wants the Foreign Secretary job.
• BoE Chief Economist Pill says might have benefitted if “other institutions” had respected UK institutional framework in recent weeks.
• EU has warned that a price cap on natural gas will need the involvement of the UK and Switzerland for it to be effective, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
• German gov’t increases tax revenue forecast for 2022-2026 by EUR 110bln, via Handelsblatt.

FX

• DXY rangy around the 112.000 handle and Dollar mixed against major peers, Pound reclaims 1.1300+ status as new PM Sunak prepares to take the reins from Truss.
• Loonie lagging ahead of BoC policy meeting on Wednesday as WTI retreats further.
• Aussie hovers above 0.6300 vs the Buck post-as anticipated Budget.
• Euro remains confined between tight 0.9899-52 lines against the Greenback with little reaction to mixed Ifo and ECB lending surveys.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1668 vs exp. 7.1348 (prev. 7.1230); weakest since 2008
• China’s FX regulator surveyed banks regarding Yuan positioning as the currency tumbles, via Reuters citing sources.
• Turkish Finance Minister held a meeting with the bank association and senior executives on Monday, via Reuters citing sources; subsequently confirmed.

Fixed Income

• Bonds resume recovery rally as Bunds breach 137.00 and Bobls scale 119.00 irrespective of a weak 5 year auction.
• Gilts establish firmer foothold above 100.00 as new UK PM takes over the helm and US Treasuries flip from bear-steepening to bull-flattening ahead of 2 year note supply.
• German Finance Agency Diemer says volatility is making it harder for primary dealers to take risk in bidding within German auctions, via Reuters.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are pressured amid the general risk tone with sentiment slipping throughout the morning amid a resilient USD and Ifo pointing to a German recession.
• Currently, WTI and Brent Dec contracts are lower by just over 1% or USD 1/bbl and reside at session lows of USD 83.50/bbl and USD 92/bbl respectively.
• IEA’s Birol said the OPEC+ decision to cut output by 2mln BPD is a risky one especially as several economies are on the brink of recession; the Global LNG market to tighten further next year as European imports increase and China’s appetite may rebound, via Reuters.
• The European Commission is to discuss a proposal today for a permanent fix to decouple gas from electricity prices, according to Politico.
• Spot gold is tarnished by ongoing USD strength with the DXY remaining resilient around the 112.00 mark after a brief move below. As such, the yellow metal remains below the 10-DMA.
• Aluminium is faring better than the likes of copper at present and perhaps deriving some support from Norsk Hydro announcing it is to commence a partial curtailment of its Norwegian aluminium smelters

Geopolitical

• Russia will regard the use of a “dirty bomb” by Kyiv as an act of nuclear terrorism; Russia said it has not intended nor intends to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, according to a letter cited by Reuters.
• US DoJ said four Chinese nationals, including three intelligence officials, have been charged in a spy recruitment campaign, according to Reuters.
• South Korean President Yoon said North Korea has completed preparations for a seventh nuclear test, via Yonhap.

US Event Calendar

• 09:00: Aug. S&P CS Composite-20 YoY, est. 14.05%, prior 16.06%
  • S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. -0.80%, prior -0.44%
  • FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. -0.6%, prior -0.6%
• 10:00: Oct. Conf. Board Expectations, prior 80.3
  • Conf. Board Present Situation, prior 149.6
  • Conf. Board Consumer Confidenc, est. 106.0, prior 108.0
• 10:00: Oct. Richmond Fed Index, est. -5, prior 0

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’m off to New York this morning as soon as I press send on this. I’ve been told that the kids are queueing up to replace me and sleep on my side of the bed when I’m gone. So much so that I’m not sure I’ll get my old slot back! It’ll be my first visit to NY since just prior to the pandemic. That’s a lot of missing products from the Apple store to make up for. However Sterling’s fall, and inflation since then will likely temper my enthusiasm for the new iPad out on Thursday!

Talking of inflation, this morning we’ve just put out a note looking at what normally happens next when inflation hits 8% through history using 50 DM and EM countries, around 320 unique observations and covering up to a 100 years of data. With consensus being so bad at predicting inflation in this cycle we thought we’d look at what history says. Without too many spoilers, it would be unusual to see inflation now fall back as quickly as consensus believes over the next 2 years. In fact using data from the last 50 years (the fiat money era) current consensus forecasts would be in the most optimistic decile of observations over this period. Whether consensus or the median observation through history is correct will have profound implications for assets over the next few months and years. See the short report here for more.

On a related subject, we wondered in yesterday’s EMR whether the WSJ article on Friday would mark the 6th attempt this year to try to pre-empt a Fed pivot after Friday’s reaction to the story. The reality is though that there hasn’t been enough follow-through in US rates pricing yesterday for this to yet qualify as a 6th attempt. In fact, we saw a part reversal of Friday’s move yesterday. Indeed, even with a monster rally in UK bonds, US rates edged back up with 2 and 10yr yields +4.5bps and +3.2bps, respectively. Implied rates from the December 2022 – July 2023 Fed contracts increased c.+2-6bps. In Asia, 2yr and 10yr UST are back -1.2bps and -4bps lower, respectively, though.

Gilts have been the standout rates mover over the last 24 hours though with 2yr and 10yrs around -37bps and -31bps lower yesterday as Rishi Sunak’s path to PM was cleared by all others dropping out. 2yr notes had their largest gain in nearly 30 years. Sunak will be formally appointed today. The rates repricing has also tempered expectations of BoE hikes beyond the next couple of meetings, amid hopes for greater fiscal discipline, with the June 23 contract falling 21bps. For further reference, from morning trading just before the mini-budget on September 23rd, 2yr, 10yr and 30yr gilts are now -15.1bps, +24.8bps and -1.5bps, respectively, with GBP c.1% higher. A massive round trip. Interestingly, 10yr UST and 10yr Bunds are +51bps and +40bps over the exact same period, so Gilts have outperformed.

Although US rates haven’t followed through on Friday’s price action, European equivalents followed Gilts and perhaps reacted to weak PMIs (more below) and the UK move more. 10yr Bunds (-8.4bps), OATs (-11.0bps) and BTPs -16.4bps rallied hard. 2yr yields also declined (-4.2bps in Germany, -4.3bps in France and -12.2 in Italy) ahead of the ECB’s meeting on Thursday.

US stocks carried on their recent bounce, shrugging off weak PMIs there too, with the S&P 500 (+1.19%) and Dow Jones (+1.34%) finishing in the green for the day amid gains in health care (+1.91%), IT (+1.38%) and staples (+1.79%). Only two sectors ended up with losses on the day – real estate (-0.1%) and materials (-0.62%) – and 82% of S&P 500 members were in the green. News of Tesla (-1.49%) lowering prices on its cars sold in China amid competitive pressures weighed on the Nasdaq (+0.86%) as well. Watch out for an upcoming 48-hour blitz of tech earnings with 20% of the S&P 500 market cap reporting across 5 names. We have Microsoft, Alphabet (after hours today), Meta (tomorrow) and Apple and Amazon (Thursday).

European equities also rallied amid a -15% fall in European natural gas prices to a below the 100 euro mark for the first time since June amid milder weather (not on my weekend break away!!) and good storage metrics. Indeed, “next hour” delivery TTF gas contracts briefly traded in negative territory yesterday having been over €300 in late August. With storage nearly full and the weather warm, there is very limited immediate delivery demand. This doesn’t change the medium-term problems but for now there’s a glut of near-term gas. The Stoxx 600 rallied +1.40%, led by utilities (+2.68%) and IT (+2.20%), with no sector in the red on the day. Bourses of Spain (IBEX +1.79%) and Italy (FTSE MIB +1.93%) were the relative outperformance but the DAX (+1.58%) and CAC 40 (+1.59%) also posted solid gains.

That’s it for the good news as the global flash PMIs painted a rather bleak picture on both sides of the Atlantic. Perhaps the most glaring miss was that for the US, with the manufacturing gauge (49.9) sliding into contractionary territory for the first time since June 2020 from September’s 52.0 reading and way off the 51.0 median estimate on Bloomberg. The services PMI reading disappointed even more, falling to 46.6 from 49.3 and defying expectations of a mild rebound to 49.5. Adding to the gloom, the employment component of the index fell to 49.4 from 52.2 and business expectations contracted to 57.4 (vs 66.7), the lowest since June and September of 2020, respectively. A silver lining came from a fall in input prices in the manufacturing PMI (63.9 vs 65.2), the lowest level since November 2020, although the measure crept higher for services (68.5 vs 67.7). Overall, this meant a fourth month in a row of being in contractionary theory for the composite.

Manufacturing PMIs disappointed to the downside in Europe as well, falling to 46.6 from 48.4 (vs 47.9 expected) for the Eurozone aggregate and to 45.7 in Germany (vs 47.0 expected). Over in the UK, the services gauge also had a solid miss, falling from 50.0 to 47.5 (vs 49.0 expected), in addition to the manufacturing index (45.8 vs 48.0 expected). Amid these results, France stood out by having a “breakeven” composite of 50.0 on the back of an upward beat on manufacturing (47.4 vs 47.0 expected) and a miss on services (51.3 vs 51.5).

Overnight in Asia, major bourses are catching up to yesterday’s price action in the US, with the Nikkei (+1.25%) and the Kospi (+0.29%) in the green and Chinese assets recording a volatile session after yesterday’s rout that saw the Hang Seng falling by -6.36%, the most in a day since the financial crisis. As of this morning, the index is notching a rebound of +0.87% on hopes of prior overselling and further parsing of the Communist Party Congress while the Shanghai composite is also higher (+0.74%). Dip buying is especially strong in the Hang Seng Tech index (+3.95%) which declined by nearly -10% yesterday and today’s volatility was boosted by news of PBOC’s multi-year-low fixing which sent the onshore yuan below the 7.30 level, the weakest since the financial crisis. Little of this is currently spilling over into US assets, with S&P 500 futures broadly flat.

To the day ahead now and economic indicators in store will feature the Conference Board consumer confidence index for October, Richmond Fed manufacturing index and August FHFA house price index for the US. In Europe, we will get October Ifo survey for Germany and the Eurozone bank lending survey will also be published. The earnings line-up for today will be key, featuring most prominently Microsoft and Alphabet after the US market close. Earlier in the day, we will hear from Coca-Cola, General Electric, General Motors and UPS. Other notable names reporting will feature Visa, Novartis, Texas Instruments, Raytheon Technologies, HSBC, SAP, 3M, UBS, ADM, Valero Energy, Chipotle, Biogen, Halliburton, Spotify and Norsk Hydro.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

Sentiment slips amid downbeat Ifo commentary and a resilient USD, key earnings ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open

TUESDAY, OCT 25, 2022 – 06:40 AM

• European bourses are on the backfoot despite a firmer open as participants digest numerous heavyweight earnings and the latest Ifo ahead of key US prints
• US futures in-fitting directionally ahead of numerous key releases, including Alphabet & Microsoft
• DXY remains in proximity to 112.00, though off best, as Cable reclaims 1.13 while EUR shrugs off the Ifo
• Yuan saw pronounced action amid the weakest fix since 2008 and the regulator reportedly surveying banks
• Debt has resumed its recovery rally with Bunds unphased by a weak 5yr while USTs await a 2yr outing
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Richmond Fed. Supply from the US. Earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft, Centene, UPS, ADM, Raytheon, 3M, Visa, and more.

As of 11:10BST/06:10ET

View the full premarket movers and news report. 

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

LOOKING AHEAD

• US Richmond Fed, BoE’s Pill, Supply from the US.
• Earnings from Alphabet, Google, Microsoft, Centene, UPS, ADM, Raytheon, 3M, Visa, and more.
• Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses are on the backfoot despite a firmer open as participants digest numerous heavyweight earnings and the latest Ifo ahead of key US prints; Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%.
• Sectors post outperformance in Media and Tech following Apple’s pricing update and SAP +4.0%, respectively, while Chemicals are pressured as heavyweight Linde considers a Frankfurt delisting.
• Stateside, futures are pressured and having been moving in-tandem with European bourses as we look to heavyweight US names; ES -0.4%.
• United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) Q3 2022 (USD): EPS 2.96 (exp. 2.84), Revenue 24.2bln (exp. 24.32bln).
• Click here for more detail.

FX

• DXY rangy around the 112.000 handle and Dollar mixed against major peers, Pound reclaims 1.1300+ status as new PM Sunak prepares to take the reins from Truss.
• Loonie lagging ahead of BoC policy meeting on Wednesday as WTI retreats further.
• Aussie hovers above 0.6300 vs the Buck post-as anticipated Budget.
• Euro remains confined between tight 0.9899-52 lines against the Greenback with little reaction to mixed Ifo and ECB lending surveys.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1668 vs exp. 7.1348 (prev. 7.1230); weakest since 2008
• China’s FX regulator surveyed banks regarding Yuan positioning as the currency tumbles, via Reuters citing sources.
• Turkish Finance Minister held a meeting with the bank association and senior executives on Monday, via Reuters citing sources; subsequently confirmed.
• Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

• EUR/USD: 0.9745-50 (1.2BN), 0.9775-85 (1.0BN)
• USD/JPY: 147.00-05 (982M), 147.40-50 (1.1BN), 148.00 (726M), 149.50 (605M), 150.00 (1.3BN)
• Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

• Bonds resume recovery rally as Bunds breach 137.00 and Bobls scale 119.00 irrespective of a weak 5 year auction.
• Gilts establish firmer foothold above 100.00 as new UK PM takes over the helm and US Treasuries flip from bear-steepening to bull-flattening ahead of 2 year note supply.
• German Finance Agency Diemer says volatility is making it harder for primary dealers to take risk in bidding within German auctions, via Reuters.
• Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

• Crude benchmarks are pressured amid the general risk tone with sentiment slipping throughout the morning amid a resilient USD and Ifo pointing to a German recession.
• Currently, WTI and Brent Dec contracts are lower by just over 1% or USD 1/bbl and reside at session lows of USD 83.50/bbl and USD 92/bbl respectively.
• IEA’s Birol said the OPEC+ decision to cut output by 2mln BPD is a risky one especially as several economies are on the brink of recession; the Global LNG market to tighten further next year as European imports increase and China’s appetite may rebound, via Reuters.
• The European Commission is to discuss a proposal today for a permanent fix to decouple gas from electricity prices, according to Politico.
• Spot gold is tarnished by ongoing USD strength with the DXY remaining resilient around the 112.00 mark after a brief move below. As such, the yellow metal remains below the 10-DMA.
• Aluminium is faring better than the likes of copper at present and perhaps deriving some support from Norsk Hydro announcing it is to commence a partial curtailment of its Norwegian aluminium smelters
• Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• Sky News sources suggest Jeremy Hunt is to remain UK Chancellor, while Penny Mordaunt wants the Foreign Secretary job.
• BoE Chief Economist Pill says might have benefitted if “other institutions” had respected UK institutional framework in recent weeks.
• EU has warned that a price cap on natural gas will need the involvement of the UK and Switzerland for it to be effective, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
• German gov’t increases tax revenue forecast for 2022-2026 by EUR 110bln, via Handelsblatt.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

• German Ifo Business Climate New (Oct) 84.3 vs. Exp. 83.3 (Prev. 84.3, Rev. 84.4); expect German GDP to shrink by 0.6% in Q4.
• German Ifo Current Conditions New (Oct) 94.1 vs. Exp. 92.4 (Prev. 94.5); Expectations New (Oct) 75.6 vs. Exp. 75.0 (Prev. 75.2, Rev. 75.3)
• UK CBI Trends – Orders (Oct) -4 vs. Exp. -12.0 (Prev. -2.0)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• White House said it’s not true there is a national security review of Elon Musk.
• UK FCA is launching an inquiry this week into moves by Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META) into retail financial services, FT reported; no regulatory changes are being proposed at this stage.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is pressured but within a narrow USD 200 range that is itself a similar magnitude above the USD 19k mark.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Russia will regard the use of a “dirty bomb” by Kyiv as an act of nuclear terrorism; Russia said it has not intended nor intends to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, according to a letter cited by Reuters.

OTHER

• US DoJ said four Chinese nationals, including three intelligence officials, have been charged in a spy recruitment campaign, according to Reuters.
• South Korean President Yoon said North Korea has completed preparations for a seventh nuclear test, via Yonhap.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks eventually traded higher following a firm lead from Wall Street, with the Chinese market experiencing a choppy session overnight.
• ASX 200 held onto gains as the clock ticks down for the unveiling of the Australian Federal Budget (at around 09:30BST/04:30ET), with gains in the index led by financials, telecoms and healthcare.
• Nikkei 225 remained above the 27,000 mark as its manufacturing stocks kept the index buoyed.
• KOSPI was supported by the chip sector but gains were capped as South Korean President Yoon said North Korea has completed preparations for a seventh nuclear test, whilst South Korean consumer inflation expectations also ticked up from the prior month.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were volatile throughout the session and both indices swung between gains and losses with the former dipping under the 15,000 mark at one point – desks pointed to continued angst following the CCP National Congress. The indices later surged whilst there were unconfirmed reports of Chinese intervention in the stock market.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

• US Treasury Secretary Yellen is unaware of Japan’s FX intervention and Tokyo hasn’t informed them.
• PBoC relaxed cross-border funding by raising the macroprudential parameter to 1.25 from 1.
• PBoC injected CNY 230bln via 7-day reverse repos at a maintained rate of 2.00% for a daily injection of CNY 228bln
• China State Planner said China is to promote the expansion of foreign investments focusing on the manufacturing industry.
• Japan kept its overall economic view unchanged that the economy is picking up moderately, and added that “full attention” must be paid to market volatility. Govt raised Capex view for the first time in eight months; downgrades view on imports.
• Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki does not comment on daily forex moves, ready to take appropriate action on FX movements if necessary; watching FX with a high sense of urgency. Suzuki said they are in constant communication with US authorities and he is aware of US Treasury Secretary Yellen’s comments that she did not know about Japan’s intervention.
• Japanese government official citing BoJ Governor Kuroda said sharp one-sided JPY weakening is not desirable for the economy; BoJ will work closely with govt to monitor financial and currency market moves and their impact on Japan’s economy and prices
• Japanese PM Kishida is to appoint former Health Minister Goto as the new economy minister to replace Yamagiwa, via NHK.
• Japan FX intervention on October 24th has been estimated at JPY 700-900bln, according to calculation provided by a market source to Reuters.
• South Korean Oct 12-month consumer median inflation expectation 4.3% (prev. 4.2% in Sep), according to the BoK.
• RBNZ Chief Economist said the RBNZ anticipates that inflationary pressures will ease and notes that falling house prices are expected to slow consumption.
• Australian Federal Budget: 2022/23 budget deficit seen at 1.5% of GDP, 2023/24 seen at 1.8% of GDP, 2024/25 seen at 2.0% of GDP. Click here for full details.

i)TUESDAY MORNING// MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.27 PTS OR 0.04%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 15.10 OR 0.10%    /The Nikkei closed UP 275.38PTS OR 1.02%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.22%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.3087 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.3632//    /Oil DOWN TO 83.38 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92.03    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

end

2B JAPAN

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/

China is deliberately lowering the value of the yuan due to the huge devaluation in the Japanese yen.

(zerohedge)

Chinese Yuan Craters As PBOC Continues Stealth Devaluation With Weakest Fix In 14 Years

MONDAY, OCT 24, 2022 – 10:38 PM

Back on March 30, when the downward move in the yen was only just starting, we explained why the “Yen Is At Risk Of “Explosive” Downward Spiral With Kuroda Trapped, And Why China May Soon Devalue.”

We won’t waste our readers’ time going into the details (they can click on the hyperlink above for the details), suffice to point out that since then, the yen has cratered by about 30 big figures…

… prompting the BOJ to intervene, in an act of futile desperation, in the FX market by blowing what now appears to be $50 billion (and rising fast) in open market yen purchases to contain the collapse of the currency. Of course, until and unless the BOJ ends YCC, all interventions will be completely pointless, and the USDJPY can easily hit 200 within the next 12 months unless Kuroda allows the 10Y yield to rise above 0.25%… which he won’t do as the alternative is an immediate bond market collapse.

But while the yen has been remarkable, it is the move in the yuan that has been the real stunner… just as we predicted. Behold the biggest stealth devaluation in modern Chinese history!

And tonight, one day after the biggest drop in US-traded Chinese stocks following the absolute revulstion to what happened in China over the weekend, it went from bad to worse for the offshore yuan which cratered as low as 7.3686, a relentless drop in recent days and the lowest level on record for the offshore yuan…

… which was sparked by the official fixing of the onshore yuan at 7.1668, which while still stronger than the estimate of 7.2198 (if well of record spreads observed in the past few weeks), was still the weakest reference rate in 14 years. In kneejerk reaction, the USDCNY, which is limited how far away from the reference rate it can trade, immediately proceeded to dump by 0.6% to 7.3050, the highest (i.e., weakest) since Dec. 2007.

Commenting on the move, Mizuho Bank Asia FX strategist Ken Cheung said that the yuan fixing at 7.1668 is “a clear sign of the PBOC letting go of the currency as outflow pressure mounts” adding that “the weaker fixing means the policies are going back to normal after the 20th party congress.”

Cheung also wrote that “the previous CNY fixing guidance could be a temporary measure and the PBOC is now letting the CNY to be more driven by market forces.”

Which begs just two questions: how long until the current stealth devaluation which has seen the yuan drop the fastest 15% on record, is called for what it is, especially when compared to the dwarf of an official devaluation that took place back in August 2015.

The second question: the last time China devalued aggressively – and officially – bitcoin saw its first sizable move from the low-hundreds into four digits. Will this time Beijing be successful at blocking off the capital flight firewall, or will those $55 trillion in Chinese bank assets finally starting moving out again

end

CHINA/TAIWAN/USA

USA is very scared of an attack on Taiwan.  China would then control the world’s chip making business.  Now the uSA wants to break up the hub and move it to the USA. China will attack on the first sniff of that

(zerohedge)

US Wants To Break Up Taiwan’s Chip Hub To Shield Supply Chains In Event Of China Invasion

MONDAY, OCT 24, 2022 – 10:40 PM

The global semiconductor industry is entirely dominated by Taiwan. And that is a significant security risk for Western countries if China were to invade the island nation. 

“If you allow yourself to think about a scenario where the United States no longer had access to the chips currently being made in Taiwan, it’s a scary scenario.

“It’s a deep and immediate recession. It’s an inability to protect ourselves by making military equipment. We need to make this in America,” US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told CNBC this past summer. 

In August, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made a controversial trip to Taiwan. In one of her meetings, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. founder Morris Chang told Pelosi very bluntly that Washington’s efforts to rebuild domestic chip manufacturing would fail. 

“He was pretty blunt, and the esteemed guests were a bit surprised,” one person familiar with the talks told Financial Times. 

As tensions between Taiwan and China mount, Washington plans to shift the global semiconductor supply chain out of the region to the US and elsewhere. And the reason for it is due to a scenario where China invades or blockades Taiwan, which would mean the global chip industry would grind to a halt overnight. 

“If China cuts off TSMC’s supply chain, it could cause a major crisis in the world economy,” said Paul Clifford, a non-resident fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy School. TSMC is moving toward shifting “some of their production out of Taiwan because of that concern.”

Jason Hsu, a former Taiwanese lawmaker and now a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School, said the US is playing a delicate balancing act by pressuring TSMC to move production lines to the US while it unleashes an economic war on China’s semiconductor industry. He said that puts Taiwan at risk.

The West’s concerns around Taiwan’s security and independence are why the Biden administration is pursuing the CHIPS Act to expand domestic semiconductor output. One problem for TSMC is that Washington is beginning to diversify chip manufacturing away from Taiwan. 

For example, the Pentagon’s dependency on Taiwan for chips that power leading-edge devices and weapons is central to the battle for tech supremacy between the US and China. Due to future disruption risks, the DoD has to source chips from more secure supply chains. 

Besides the US, there are efforts in Europe, Japan, Singapore, and India to increase semiconductor manufacturing. New manufacturing plants could take a couple of years to start producing chips. 

The West’s strategy to diversify semiconductor supply chains out of Taiwan is becoming more clear:

“Everyone realizes that there is a big watershed moment here for the whole industry,” said Peter Hanbury, a partner and expert in semiconductor and technology supply chains at Bain, the consultancy. “But it kind of snuck up on people.”

Credit Suisse analysts recently pointed out if Taiwan’s chip plants were disrupted for any reason. The production of automobiles to computers would be severely impacted. 

As of right now, the West’s goal is to break up Taiwan’s chip hub, though, as we noted earlier, TSMC’s Chang warned that any such move would fail. 

However, TSMC customers are already looking to diversify production out of the region, as explained by Sebastian Hou, managing director at Neuberger Berman, an investment management company:

“There have been some concerns among TSMC customers since two years ago … It was the time when in Taiwan we started to have more fighter jets from China hovering around the Taiwan Strait, and that has become a daily routine.”

So far, those customers include Qualcomm and Nvidia, who have recently stated that some chip production from TSMC’s facilities would be shifted elsewhere. 

Hanbury said the big question would be if Apple changes manufacturing partners due to the increasing risks in the Taiwan Strait. 

“Taiwan’s monopoly in semiconductor production creates instability,” Brad Martin, director of the National Security Supply Chain Institute at the Rand Corporation, said. “If the US is faced with a need to make a decision between protecting its economy and defending Taiwan, that starts to become a very stark decision.”

It’s becoming increasingly clear that the West wants TSMC and others in Taiwan to shift chip production elsewhere, so chip supplies aren’t drastically disrupted in the event of a China invasion.

end 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

/EUROPE//NATURAL GAS

European natural gas prices lower a bit amid a sudden lack of storage

(zerohedge)

European Nat Gas Prices Briefly Turn Negative Amid Sudden Lack Of Storage

TUESDAY, OCT 25, 2022 – 05:45 AM

Last week we pointed out a bizarre development off the coast of the energy starved European continent: some 35 LNG carriers were idling off the coast of Spain (the country which has six LNG import and regasification terminals and is the biggest LNG importer in the EU).

As Reuters put it, the tanker pileup highlighted Europe’s problem with LNG import capacity that prompted Germany to urgently strike a deal for the construction of two floating facilities so it can receive LNG directly: the region has had to find alternative supplies, including LNG, but the arrival of multiple cargoes of the superchilled fuel has exposed Europe’s lack of “regasification” capacity, as plants that convert the seaborne fuel back to gas are operating at maximum limit.

If the backlog is not cleared soon those ships may start looking for alternative ports outside Europe to offload their cargo.

Meanwhile, there is more LNG floating off the European coast, Reuters reported, citing more sources, suggesting the 35-strong tanker crowd off Spain is only part of the actual pile-up.

“Floating storage levels in LNG shipping is at all time high levels with slightly more than 2.5 million tonnes tied up in floating storage,” Flex LNG Management chief executive Oystein Kalleklev told Reuters.

Add to the epic pileup of LNG tankers the fact that most of Europe’s storage facilities are almost full ahead of the winter (As of Sunday, EU storage facilities were 93.4% full, with the continent’s two biggest markets, Germany and Italy, recording even higher levels), and couple that with weather forecasts suggesting that temperatures in continental Europe will be between 4 and 8 degrees Celsius warmer than the seasonal average this week, implying lower demand, and the result was a sharp drop in European nat gas futures.

At one point in the morning, front-month Dutch TTF futures, which serve as a benchmark for northwest Europe, were down over 10% at 101.39 euros a megawatt-hour, having opened at a new four-month low of 100 EUR/MWh.

But what is more remarkable is that the lack of storage availability – similar to what happened in April 2020 when WTI briefly traded as far negative as -$40 – has forced ultra-short term spot prices to collapse as those assigned delivery (without a place to store the gas) were literally paying others to take the gas off their hands!

And sure enough, early on Monday, the “next hour”  TTF contract briefly dipped as far negative as -€15.78, the lowest on record as there was simply nowhere to park the nat gas.

Still, just like the negative WTI print in April 2020 was an historic outlier, so don’t expect today’s negative “next hour” gas print to become a frequent occurrence, especially since the more conventional (one month, etc) European winter prices remain very high amid continued uncertainty over the fate of European gas, because while the winter of 2022 may avoid the worst case scenario (which again will depend on just how cold the coming winter will be), it is the winter of 2023 where all bets are off.

FRANCE/EUROPE

Protests galore throughout Europe.  France has 26 out of 56 nuclear reactors off line for pipe corrosion or maintenance

(Mish Shedlock)

26 Of France’s 56 Nuclear Reactors Are Offline For Pipe Corrosion Or Maintenance

TUESDAY, OCT 25, 2022 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MIshTalk.com,

Gear up for a cold Winter in France. The protests have started already…

Nuclear reactor image from WSJ Tweet below

Pipe corrosion, maintenance, and labor unrest have nearly half of French nuclear reactors offline. 

The result is France’s Worst Energy Crisis Since the 1970s.

Twenty-six of France’s 56 nuclear reactors are offline for maintenance or because of corrosion on piping that cools the reactor cores. Fixing the corrosion is taking longer than expected at several reactors, delaying their restart by as much as six weeks, according to regulatory filings and a French nuclear executive familiar with the matter.

Labor unrest is another obstacle. Strikes at 18 reactors owned by EDF SA, France’s state-controlled power giant, have delayed their restart by several weeks, threatening the government’s plans to have all of them back online by the end of the winter. EDF and union leaders said they reached an agreement Friday on salary increases, ending the strikes.

EDF, the world’s largest owner of nuclear plants, is one of Western Europe’s most important power companies. Its fleet of reactors normally exports large quantities of low-cost nuclear power to neighboring countries, helping stabilize prices across the region.

The situation changed drastically this year, when France swung from being one of Europe’s largest exporters of electricity to a net importer because of the outages at its reactors. The rash of outages has officials worried that France and the broader region might run short of electricity in the winter, when power demand in Europe peaks.

The outages have forced EDF to absorb huge losses because the company was forced to buy replacement power on Europe’s wholesale market, where prices have soared, for sale to retail clients at much lower prices.

Labor Unions Call for General Strike

see zero hedge for video

Protests in France, Italy Holland

see zero hedge for video

Irritated Farmers Dump Merde

see zerohedge for video

Protests in France, Serbia, Germany, Italy, and Spain

see zerohedge for video

Check Out This Line of People in France

140,000 people took part in the France protest. There were calls for France to withdraw from NATO. Leftists and trade unions organized protests against soaring living costs, inflation EU NATO 

Just a Prelude

If those reactors don’t come back on line in time, and that’s a good bet, things are going to get really messy in Europe.

END

LNG tanker rates are surging as European demand is going through the roof.  Traders use tankers as floating storage facilities

Bottlenecks are emerging as the crisis stricken Europe is escalating

(Irina Slav/OilPrice.com)

LNG Bottlenecks Are Emerging In Crisis-Stricken Europe

TUESDAY, OCT 25, 2022 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

• LNG tanker rates are surging as European demand for liquified gas soars.
• Tanker rates are also soaring because traders use tankers as floating storage facilities.
• Freeport LNG could return to normal operations by the end of next month.

European countries have boasted that their gas storage facilities have been filled at higher than usual levels before the start of winter. Yet more LNG cargos are arriving in Europe at such rates that they are jamming ports. And freight rates are through the roof, adding to already record LNG prices. Earlier this week, media reported that there were more than 30 LNG tankers idling off the coast of Spain, waiting to unload at one of its regasification terminals. Clearly, these terminals were not sufficient for the surge of LNG imports into the country, which sports the most LNG import terminals in Europe, at a total of six.

Yet Spain is not the only one in an “exceptional operational situation,” as the government in Madrid called it.

There are dozens of LNG tankers waiting to unload or serving as floating storage near other European ports as well. And as the LNG rush to Europe continues, an LNG tanker shortage is looming large.

“Every natural-gas buyer who is serious has taken LNG carriers into their portfolio,” Jefferies shipping research head Omar Nokta told the Wall Street Journal.

“There is very limited capacity out there and it’s super expensive to get.”

It’s the oldest of laws about supply and demand at work, but this same law is also pushing freight rates for LNG carriers sky-high, which is adding to already substantial LNG import bills in Europe and Asia.

According to Baltic Exchange data cited in the Wall Street Journal report, spot market LNG tanker rates have gone up sixfold since the start of the year, reaching $450,000 per day this week.

Brokers expect this to rise further to half a million dollars daily as demand remains strong ahead of winter. And that might not be the ceiling because one UK brokerage has forecast freight rates could soar to as much as $1 million per day before the year’s end.

An additional factor making the shipment of LNG more expensive is that a substantial portion of the available LNG fleet is currently being used as floating storage as traders await the price of the commodity to go higher still as winter begins. The Reuters report about the LNG tanker jams noted that LNG prices for delivery in November and December are $2 mmBtu higher than current prices.

The jams are also turning some of the tankers waiting to unload into floating storage, at least temporarily, helped by a dip in demand because of warmer-than-usual weather in Spain and lower industrial demand for gas across Europe because of the slowdown in economic activity, which in turn was caused by the gas shortage that began last year.

There’s more expensive news on the horizon, too. The restart of Freeport LNG, which shut down after a fire in June, hurting the affordability and availability aspects of Europe’s new-found LNG addiction, could be delayed.

Rystad Energy, the Norwegian energy consultancy, forecast recently that Freeport LNG could return to normal operations by the end of next month, but added that there is still the possibility of a delay. This delay, Rystad noted, could push gas prices higher in the United States. Higher U.S. gas prices would automatically increase LNG prices for the international market as well.

This is happening as the European Union tries to put its foot down and say it will install a ceiling on LNG prices. A proposal to that effect was made this week by the Commission and was discussed by European leaders at a meeting that took place on Thursday.

Even before the meeting, an agreement was unlikely as member states are split on the issue, but the push to tame gas prices and consequently, inflation is strong and some form of price control might end up being agreed to reduce the price pain.

There is some silver lining despite all the bad price news. China’s LNG imports are expected to decline sharply due to weak demand and high spot market prices, which will free up more cargos for Europe. It’s only too bad it cannot build more LNG import terminals in weeks.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/IRAN/SYRIA

What took them so long?  Israel destroys Iranian drone making plant in Syria

Israel Destroys Iranian Drone-Making Plant In Syria

TUESDAY, OCT 25, 2022 – 02:45 AM

The Israeli Air Force reportedly destroyed an Iranian drone factory during a bombing raid on Syrian territory on Friday, coming at a moment that Iran-manufactured drones are focus on international attention for their alleged use by Russian forces in Ukraine.

The attack is being described as the first such Israeli operation in Syria in a month. Prior to this latest attack, Israeli attacks on Syria had come almost weekly. But Israel’s Haaretz in describing this new operation presented “a more complicated picture of a drone manufacturing and weapons storage site not far from Lebanon and Israel’s borders,” citing an external war monitor.Iranian Army via AP

As is typical with Israeli actions, the aim was reportedly to disrupt an Iranian arms manufacturing operation believed to be supplying Hezbollah.

According to Newsmax, “The U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported the facility assembled unmanned vehicles whose parts were manufactured in Iran and then secretly shipped to Dimas in southern Syria, according to news outlets Ynet and Haaretz.”

The alleged drone and weapons manufacturing site also appeared an ideal target for Israeli forces as the depot wasn’t far from Lebanon and Israel’s borders. No casualties were officially reported as a result.

As for alleged Iranian drone use inside Ukraine, Russia has continued its official denials, particularly in the face of calls for a UN Security Council investigation. According to a weekend Associated Press update: 

Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said the drones are Russian and warned that an investigation would violate the U.N. Charter and seriously affect relations between Russia and the United Nations.

U.S. deputy ambassador Jeffrey DeLaurentis said that “the U.N. must investigate any violations of U.N. Security Council resolutions — and we must not allow Russia or others to impede or threaten the U.N. from carrying out its mandated responsibilities.”

The US push at the UN comes following two weeks of dozens of Ukrainian cities and towns coming under stepped-up aerial attacks by cruise missiles as well as drones. 

Ukraine and the US say they can prove Russia is using them, citing that Ukrainian forces have lately shot down at least 16 Shahed-136 ‘Kamikaze drones supplied from Iran. US and allied investigators are reportedly analyzing the wreckage of the drones.

END

>

6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES//VACCINE ISSUES.

Vaccine//Covid issues:

Less Than 1 In 100 Million Chance That COVID-19 Has Natural Origin: New Study

TUESDAY, OCT 25, 2022 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Hans Mahncke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A new study on the origins of the pandemic, “Endonuclease fingerprint indicates a synthetic origin of SARS-CoV2,” published on the preprint server bioRxiv, concludes that it is highly likely that the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 originated in a laboratory. The odds of a natural origin, according to the study, are placed at less than 1 in 100 million.Travelers walk through Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Va., on April 19, 2022. (Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)

Unlike previous studies that analyzed qualitative aspects such as virus features, the new study for the first time assesses the likelihood of a laboratory origin on a quantitative basis. This breakthrough methodology allowed the authors to present objective findings that appear to exceed any previous studies. 

Significantly, the new study does not rely on any of the known evidence pointing toward a lab origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. For instance, it does not take into consideration the highly unusual Furin Cleavage Site that makes the virus particularly virulent and which it is widely thought to have been inserted into the virus at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Nor does it factor in the huge coincidence that the pandemic started on the door steps of the world’s premier coronavirus laboratoryThe P4 laboratory on the campus of the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, on May 13, 2020. (Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images)

Instead, the authors—Valentin Bruttel, a molecular immunologist at the University of Würzburg in Germany; Alex Washburne, a mathematical biologist at Selva Science; and Antonius VanDongen, a pharmacologist at Duke University—took a novel approach that assesses the genesis of the SARS-CoV-2 virus from an entirely new angle. The authors examined tiny fingerprints left behind in the process in which viruses are assembled in laboratories. While use of seamless genetic engineering techniques in creating viruses in laboratories typically conceals evidence of manipulation, the new study developed a statistical process for uncovering such hidden evidence by comparing the distribution of certain strands of genetic code in wild viruses and lab-made viruses. 

When viruses are constructed in a lab, they are typically assembled by piecing together various virus parts. According to a blog post from Washburne that accompanied the release of the study, it is like taking Mr. Potato Head from the movie Toy Story and replacing his arms with the arms of GI Joe to help “us study things like whether GI Joe arms provide any clear benefit for an important task in the virus life cycle like lifting weights.”

In other words, one of the main purposes of manipulating viruses is to better understand which parts of viruses make them particularly infectious, lethal, or transmissible. A related purpose is to develop bioweapons but the authors of the new study reject the idea that that is why SARS-CoV-2 was made. They believe that the virus “was assembled in a lab via common methods used to assemble infectious clones pre-COVID.”

A recent experiment at Boston University is an example of piecing together virus parts. Researchers created a COVID-19 variant that killed 80 percent of exposed mice using the backbone of the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 virus and replacing its spike gene with that from the Omicron variant. Put another way, the Boston lab created a COVID-19 version of Frankenstein’s monster by piecing together different parts from different variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.  

Piecing together viruses in labs is subject to limitations. The genetic information for SARS-CoV-2 is contained in 30,000 base pairs of RNA nucleotides. However, the 30,000 base pairs are not pieced together all at once. Instead, laboratory viruses are assembled from a collection of smaller strands of base pairs that are later “glued” back together as chimeras, or compounds. Enzymes are used to cut viruses apart at certain points along the DNA strand (laboratories use DNA instead of RNA as it is more stable; the assembled DNA is then added to bacteria that create RNA viruses). 

Enzymes are proteins that cut through DNA strands at specific recognition sites. These recognition sites, or cutting sites, are the genetic sequences within DNA strands that are sought out by the enzymes. Enzymes are like biological scissors that cut only at particular cutting sites marked by sequences that are recognized by particular enzymes. 

Since cutting sites look like normal sequences of nucleotides, they can be found on RNA strands of naturally occurring viruses as well as on lab-made viruses. This is why this form of genetic engineering leaves no seams or obvious fingerprints. However, there is an important difference between cutting sites on wild-type and lab-made viruses that the authors exploited. Naturally occurring cutting sites are not necessarily located where scientists want them to be. Laboratories therefore routinely insert cutting sites in favorable locations and remove them from unfavorable locations.

While naturally occurring cutting sites and cutting sites added in a lab are biologically indistinguishable, Bruttel, Washburne and VanDongen hypothesized that they could detect a “very subtle but identifiable fingerprint” by plotting the distribution of the cutting sites on the SARS-CoV-2 virus. They would then compare this to the distribution of such sites on wild-type SARS viruses, as well as on other, pre-pandemic lab-made SARS viruses. They carried out their analyses for the most commonly used enzymes (biological “scissors”) which, according to a series of pre-pandemic publications from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, were also used for experiments in the Wuhan lab.A researcher at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan in China’s central Hubei Province feeds a bat with a worm in a 2017 video. (Screenshot)

The results of the new study are stark. While cutting sites on wild-type SARS viruses are randomly distributed, they tend to be regularly spaced on pre-pandemic lab-made viruses, as well as on SARS-CoV-2. So the authors found that regular spacing suggests that the location of the cutting sites was manipulated in a lab.

The new study also compared the length of the longest segments seen in wild-type viruses and lab-made viruses. The longest segments in wild-type viruses are far longer than any found in lab-made viruses, including in SARS-CoV-2. The findings again pointed to a lab origin for COVID-19.

The longest segments in lab-made viruses were found to be unusually short. As previously noted, the process of genetically engineering viruses requires scientists to use several shorter segments, which are then pieced together. Natural viruses are not pieced together and thus the length of segments is randomly determined and includes very short and very long segments. 

Bruttel, Washburne, and VanDongen estimate that the odds that the SARS-CoV-2 virus arose naturally lie between 1 in 100 and 1 in 1,400. However, this estimate only factors in the distribution of cutting sites. The authors also observed a concentration of mutations within the cutting sites that was “extremely unlikely in wild coronaviruses and nearly universal in synthetic viruses.” The estimate drops to a 1 in 100 million chance that SARS-CoV-2 was a naturally-occurring virus if these mutations are factored in. When considering additional criteria, such as the fact that the “sticky ends” where the viruses are “glued” back together all happen to fit perfectly, the authors estimate the odds of a natural origin to be even lower. 

The authors conclude that SARS-CoV-2 was assembled in a lab using common methods for assembling viruses. The authors do not speculate on which lab the virus escaped from.

In response to the new study, Kristian Andersen, the leading author of the Proximal Origin paper—the Dr. Anthony Fauci-led effort to dispel the lab leak theory—went on Twitter to slam the new study as “kindergarten molecular biology.” Andersen’s criticism is that cutting sites are common in naturally occurring SARS viruses. However, this criticism does not explain the very unusual placement of cutting sites in SARS-CoV-2.

Read more here…

END

GLOBAL ISSUES

end

PAUL ALEXANDER

Open in app or online

URGENT: Kerr & Sheikh, “Waning of first- & second-dose AstraZeneca & Pfizer COVID-19 vaccinations: pooled target trial study of 12.9 million individuals in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland & Wales”

target trial design for first/second doses of ChAdOx1(Oxford-AstraZeneca) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) with a composite outcome of COVID-19 hospitalization or death over the period 8 December 2020

DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 24

▷  LISTENSAVE

SOURCE:

Waning of first- and second-dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccinations: a pooled target trial study of 12.9 million individuals in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, Kerr, 2022

end

Ex-Defense Secretary Ashton Carter Dies After ‘Sudden Cardiac Event’; now tell us if he got the fraud ineffective harmful COVID mRNA vaccine & if you are doing an autopsy to see effects of spike

Please do an autopsy, it will be good for the nation & world, for this is why this madness continues, no autopsies are being done for they know what it will show, MASSIVE clots & spike protein damage

DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 25

▷  LISTENSAVE

It is very sad many young people and he was young, are dropping like flies and crickets in the media.

Too many people are dying in their sleep. Too many.

I pray for his rest in peace as we should for all.

END

Dr. Naomi Wolf: CDC says 25 mg Pfizer vaccine for kids under 12 years & 100 mg Moderna? Dr. Wolf is onto something here, thus how could adults usually get 30 mg Pfizer & 100 mg Moderna & CDC says

that kids are fine to get such a high dose? IMO, and as Wolf rightly points out (and thanks for this scholarship), this is a potential danger & did CDC with many errors, make a serious dose one here?

DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 24

▷  LISTENSAVE

Something does not make sense here.

SOURCE:

Wolf

This vaccine is under no condition needed in healthy children who have near zero risk (0.0003% in 0-19 year olds) for serious outcome or death and almost zero when you look ONLY at 0-10 year olds. No reason, no clinical data to support this but Wolf raises a very disturbing point here we must pay attention to.

See earlier substack I wrote on the Anderson et al. NEJM paper on the Moderna vaccine in children. Look at table S11 as an example and the impact of 25 mg Moderna on kids (<28 days post vaccination).

Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine

Anderson et al: Moderna’s childhood mRNA study ADVERSE effect: “Evaluation of mRNA-1273 Vaccine in Children 6 Months to 5 Years of Age”; look at the study & supplementary appendix, UNSOLICITED adverse

Look at the unsolicited adverse effects and the ones of special interest for the Moderna vaccine in these little kids. Focus not on the placebo arm, but the vaccine arm. You may say small numbers but they are shocking. Near 50% of the babies in 6-23 months age group (Table S11) needed medical attention post Moderna vaccine? 4th row extreme right hand co…

Read more

‘

VACCINE IMPACT/

COVID-19 Vaccines Have Caused 84% of All Deaths Recorded in VAERS for the Past 32 Years – Pfizer #1 in Vaccine Deaths, Even Before COVID

October 24, 2022 7:36 pm

The U.S. Government Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) was started in 1990 to track injuries and deaths reported after receiving a vaccine. Congress mandated by law that the government maintain this database as part of the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program. Since the emergency use authorization of the COVID-19 vaccines in December of 2020, through the latest update of the VAERS database on October 14, 2022, 84% of all deaths reported after vaccination for the past 31+ years have been reported following COVID-19 vaccines. The company that has produced the most vaccines resulting in deaths recorded in VAERS is Pfizer, and they held that top honor even before they partnered with Biontech to produce their mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, when they partnered with Wyeth to produce other various vaccines. Moderna, which had never produced a vaccine before producing their mRNA COVID vaccine in 2020, now holds the second spot at nearly 24% of all deaths ever recorded following a vaccine injection. As the public becomes more aware of these government statistics in VAERS, there are efforts to downplay their significance. One argument is that since there were so many doses of the COVID-19 vaccine administered, the statistics are naturally higher for adverse events following COVID-19 vaccines. Well, that claim is very easy to debunk using the U.S. Government’s own statistics. The National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program has published a report that lists the total number of doses administered for all FDA approved vaccines from 2006 through 2021. So let’s compare the number of cases filed in VAERS and the number of deaths reported to VAERS for the second most deadly vaccine according to VAERS, which HIB, Haemophilus influenzae, a vaccine that is primarily given to babies and children under the age of 5. Prior to the COVID-19 EUA vaccines, it was the most deadly vaccine given to children.

Read More

end

VACCINE INJURY

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK 

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

Markets Are Finally Grasping That China Is A Marxist State

TUESDAY, OCT 25, 2022 – 10:15 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Because Markets, Because Marxists

Yesterday saw benchmark European TTF gas go negative(!) due to warm weather, which in no way means an end to the structural energy crisis. Markets also reacted to two major developments in no way conclusions to larger stories.

In the UK, Gilt yields tumbled as Rishi Sunak became PM. 2-years were down 37bp on the day and 10-years 31bp, while GBP was above 1.14 before getting a nosebleed. Of course, markets still expect UK rates to peak around 5%, a level that is going to break things. How Sunak can fix them remains to be seen, but austerity is unlikely to be the answer regardless of what Gilts think. Nonetheless, Truss is gone so all is well with the world, “because markets”.

In China, stocks slumped, and Hong Kong stocks collapsed the most following a CCP Congress since 1994: the US Nasdaq Golden Dragon market went up in a puff of smoke. “Stocks are disconnected to fundamentals,” as Bloomberg quotes somebody who did not see this coming on Friday. But which fundamentals? The Congress spoke about income and wealth distribution, and hammered home Common Prosperity. Either said optimist didn’t see this outcome, or didn’t think it mattered; in either case, why should anyone listen to them? CNY has dipped past 7.30 after a weak fixing, and CNH past 7.33, even as the PBOC has adjusted regulations to allow firms to borrow more from overseas. Remember the “wild” forecast CNY would ultimately sit north of 8?

Yet what happened yesterday is not going to “Truss up” China’s leadership and force a change of policy direction. Read Politburo member Wang Huning: his core belief is that markets exist only to serve a greater state goal, rather than getting to choose the head of state to serve their goals. Anyone who does not get that should not be talking Chinese markets. Indeed, Bloomberg today talks about the need for “Kremlinology With Chinese Characteristics” to understand China:

“At a time when understanding Beijing’s domestic and economic drivers has rarely mattered more, its leadership is insulated and the outside world is left to read tea leaves… Authoritarian politics is often elite politics, and understanding that requires interviews, interactions, and trust – not only at the national level, but in regional and local affairs as well.

With Moscow and Beijing building walls, the risks for investors, policymakers, ordinary citizens and everyone else have risen. One-way traffic and the ability to pick and choose encourages biases and means that too many will see what they want to see – as evidenced by reaction to the priority Xi gave to loyalty in promotions to the Politburo and its supreme Standing Committee.

Approaches and rigor matter, for all involved, as does cultural and linguistic knowledge, which governments and, indeed, businesses must encourage despite all the obvious obstacles. Otherwise, it is not just today’s watchers that will be hampered, but tomorrow’s as well.”

You will notice there is one word missing from the target list for understanding China, which was well known during original Kremlinology: ideology. It’s not just about who’s who (or Hu’s who), but what’s what: what do people *believe*? Why do markets find it so hard to realise this, and do related reading? Wall Street analysts will happily spend a weekend going through a set of accounts or an IMF report, but ask them to read ‘Das Kapital’, ‘The Grundrisse’, or ‘Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism’, and you get looked at as if you are an alien. I repeat yet again that we are hence getting recommendations from people who literally don’t understand what they are talking about.

That said, not everything is ‘revolutionary’. As the UK shows, markets can throw tantrums over what were once normal steps. Regarding China:

• There are suggestions PCR tests now have to be paid for, perhaps retrospectively too. The bill for Covid Zero is clearly high – but does the state have to shoulder it alone? Aren’t markets supposed to like this?
• There are whispers of tax audits of foreign companies – but aren’t we seeing the same tax trend around the world now tax cuts have been firmly rejected? Aren’t markets supposed to like this?
• Why couldn’t we see the introduction of a property tax, wealth taxes, and inheritance taxes? Every Western democracy has them! Yes, they could have a destabilising effects on the property market that underpinned Chinese growth, but which will now drag on GDP for years. However, if you are already in that hole, why not stop digging and start to build a different growth model? That’s not common prosperity, but common sense. Yes, markets won’t like it: so what?
• Might we see the financial sector forced to lower its fees; narrow the spread between loan and deposit rates; cut staff salaries; downsize; and reduce the range of services offered? This would be hugely popular – as opposed to removing bankers’ bonus caps and cutting top income tax rates. Again, markets would hate it: again, so what?
• Banks would then be worse-placed to face a wave of bad loans from the property sector, so more state action would surely be required (to what political end?) This would lean strongly on CNY. Again, markets would hate it. I’m not going to repeat what that would mean, except that the FX forecasters who projected a stronger CNY also shouldn’t be listened to.

In short, what markets-who-read-no-Marx are suddenly upset about can be reasonably construed as not being entirely unreasonable in the bigger picture. The real problem is that not having read Marx means one does not know that while the Communist Party Manifesto advocates for progressive income tax; abolition of inheritances and private property; abolition of child labor; free education; nationalization of transport and communication; centralization of credit via a national bank; and expansion of publicly-owned land –much of which has been normal in the West for decades– such ‘regulatory reform’ is not what Marx actually wants.

By contrast, he exclaims, “Part of the bourgeoisie is desirous of redressing social grievances in order to secure the continued existence of bourgeois society. To this section belong economists, philanthropists, humanitarians, improvers of the condition of the working class, organisers of charity, members of societies for the prevention of cruelty to animals, temperance fanatics, hole-and-corner reformers of every imaginable kind… They desire the existing state of society, minus its revolutionary and disintegrating elements.” Marx wants a new state, including revolutionary and disintegrating elements.

I very much doubt that markets grasp this distinction, but it is more in line with their recent sell-off (and out of line with the City celebrating a new PM who has shown little grasp of its global implications).

Again, however, unlike the UK, the market is not going to Truss China up, “because Marxists.”

END

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Totally idiotic!!

(zerohedge)

Biden Unleashes “New Era” Of SPR Releases As Weapon In Crude Markets “To Manipulate An Election”

TUESDAY, OCT 25, 2022 – 06:55 AM

President Biden has released more crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as part of a mission to artificially suppress fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections than any of his predecessors since the SPR was created in 1973. 

Draining the reserves — stored in salt caverns along the US Gulf Coast — has been a powerful tool for the administration to tame fuel prices. It also signals a “new era” of intervention the White House is willing to take to manage global prices. 

Last week, Biden ordered another SPR sale of 15mm barrels of oil in December and also laid out plans to refill the dwindling emergency stockpile. 

“I think we are in a new era of much more nimble and deft use of the SPR as both a market and a geopolitical tool,” David Goldwyn, a former senior energy official in the Obama years, told Financial Times. 

Biden recently said SPR releases would “continue to stabilize markets and decrease the prices at a time when the actions of other countries have caused such volatility.” He made clear it was “not politically motivated at all,” though his critics disagree: 

“Draining oil from the strategic reserve is a short-sighted and dangerous choice that imperils our energy security at a critical time of global uncertainty,” Jerry Moran, the senior US Republican senator from Kansas, wrote in a recent letter to the president.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy also made remarks about Biden’s SPR releases, indicating they’re intended to “manipulate an election” and are “putting the whole country at risk.”

“The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was designed for an emergency time period. He’s using it trying to manipulate an election,” McCarthy said.

To date, Biden has dumped more SPR on the market than all previous presidents combined. The SPR is at levels not seen since the early 1980s. 

… and there are only 22 days worth of supply. 

Biden’s announcement of the latest SPR drawdown follows production cuts announced by OPEC+ countries. 

The SPR was established to reduce short-term market disruptions though it has become a political and geopolitical tool for the Biden administration. Remember, in August, Biden touted the “fastest decline [in gas prices] in over a decade” following months of SPR releases. Draining the SPR for non-emergencies to lower prices for short-term political gains should not be a substitute for long-term policies to boost domestic crude supplies. 

The White House’s approach to intervening in domestic and international markets shows just how desperate they’re to manage global crude prices. 

END

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.98630 DOWN    0.0021 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL MIXED 

USA/ YEN 148.89   UP  0.0060 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES//

GBP/USA 1.1322 UP   0.0015

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 1.27 PTS OR 0.04% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED  DOWN 15.10 POINTS OR 0.10% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.22%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 15.10 PTS OR 0.10%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED  DOWN 1.27 PTS OR 0.04%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.22% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  DOWN 275.38 PTS OR 1.02%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1644.50

silver:$18.92

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 111.93 UP .02  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

 TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.17% DOWN 16  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.250% UP  0 AND 1/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.27%// DOWN 17 in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.38  DOWN 40   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +2.169%  DOWN 20 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.99595 UP .0075   or 75 basis points//INTERVENTION

USA/Japan: 147,86 DOWN 1.028 OR YEN UP 103 basis points/INTERVENTION FAILED

Great Britain/USA 1.1464UP .0158 OR  158 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0077 OR 77 BASIS pts  to 1.3621

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..(DOWN) AT 7.3055

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.3156

TURKISH LIRA:  18.60  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.250

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 15 IN basis points from MONDAY at  4.079% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   4.250 DOWN 11  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 110.85 DOWN 114 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 0.51 PTS OR  0.01%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 121.51 POINTS OR 0.94%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 119.19PTS OR 1.94% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 114.40 OR  1.49%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 306,90PTS OR  1.40%

WTI Oil price 85.18 12: EST

Brent Oil:  93.19   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE FALLS TO:  61.49 UP 0  AND 30/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.169

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.99664UP .0082     OR  82  BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1468 UP  .0162 or  162 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.662% 

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147.92 DOWN 0.975//YEN UP 98 BASIS PTS//CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION AND IT FAILED

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3605 DOWN 0.0093  (CDN dollar, UP 93 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 85.09

Brent OIL:  92.91

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 14 BASIS pts to 4.088%

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 13 BASIS PTS to 4.230%

USA dollar index:110.77 DOWN 1.37

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.60

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  61.47  DOWN 0 AND  31/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 337.12 PTS OR 1.07 % 

NASDAQ 100 UP 239.73 PTS OR 2.10%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 28.37 DOWN 1.48 PTS (4.96)%

GLD: $154.02 UP 0.37 OR 0.24%

SLV/ $17.68  UP $0.18 OR 1.02%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

Surging Crypto, Swap-Spreads, Bonds, & Stocks Signal “Something’s Afoot”

TUESDAY, OCT 25, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Ugly US housing and sentiment data were just the (bad news) spark to set stonks on fire today. Small Caps led the way, up around 3%, followed by a huge surge over 2% in the Nasdaq (ahead of this week’s epic earnings extravaganza). The Dow was the biggest loser of today’s winners, eking out a 1% gain…

…on the back of a massive short-squeeze (biggest daily gain for the ‘most shorted’ basket since May). Off of yesterday’s lows, ‘most shorted’ stocks are up a shocking 11%…

Source: Bloomberg

…with no fear of downside evident in the options market…

Source: Bloomberg

…but there was lots of chatter that something scary this way comes in the arcane details of the rates market as swap spreads notably decoupled from treasury yields today suggesting, as one veteran swaps trader remarked via text “something is afoot”.

The 10Y swap spread (red) is negative (means 10y swap rate is below 10Y treasury yield) and broke away from TSY yields today…

Source: Bloomberg

This decoupling is likely being driven by chatter about Treasury buybacks (as we explained in detail here), which is an effective pivot by The Fed and is implicitly backstopping Treasuries – hence TSY yields fall closer to swap rates. Belly swap spreads widened even more today than the long-end…

Source: Bloomberg

Widening swap spreads (less negative in this case) have traditionally signaled increased systemic risk (including liquidity anxiety). Simply put, a higher spread suggests market participants are willing to swap their risk exposures, suggesting overall risk aversion, although we would note that, as the same veteran trader noted, “a lot of these moves have been technically-driven” referencing the SOFR/LIBOR transition. Still, it’s a sudden and noteworthy shift.

Is that ‘anxiety’ why we saw cryptos explode higher today also? (we note some chatter on Chinese capital outflows after Xi’s 3rd term). Bitcoin ripped up to $20,400…

Source: Bloomberg

…and Ethereum soared back above $1500…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was also bid on the chatter about a Fed shift…

US Treasuries were aggressively bid today with the mid- to long-end of the curve dramatically outperforming (2Y -3bps, 10Y -15bps). Notably, TSYs were well bid overnight then yields plunged on the shitty US data. The bid ended when Europe closed. This left 2Y yields unchanged on the week while 10Y yields are down around 13bps (a significant flattening)…

Source: Bloomberg

At the short-end, Fed rate expectations shifted dovishly today…

Source: Bloomberg

The market remains sure that The Fed will be cutting rates next year…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar tumbled to 3 week lows today…

Source: Bloomberg

Cable soared today, squeezing shorts up to recent resistance levels…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices rallied back from overnight weakness with WTI hovering around $85 ahead of tonight’s API data…

US NatGas prices soared today as the Freeport LNG terminal appears set to reopen (allowing exports to Europe and thus tightening domestic supply)…

Finally, the era of negative-yielding debt is almost over. As Bloomberg notes, the total market value of negative-yielding debt worldwide has fallen to just under $1 trillion and consists entirely of short-dated Japanese securities…

Source: Bloomberg

…And overnight we saw 2Y JGBs trade above zero for the first time since 2015…

Source: Bloomberg

At its peak there was over $18 trillion in global negative-yielding debt. How’d that cunning plan work out?

end

I) / LATE MORNING//  TRADING//

AFTERNOON TRADING//

ii) USA DATA/

Home Prices Plunge Most Since 2009, Pulte CEO Fears “Financial & Psychological Hurdles” Ahead For Homebuyers

TUESDAY, OCT 25, 2022 – 09:06 AM

After tumbling for the first time since 2012 in July, Case-Shiller’s 20-City Composite Home Price index was expected to drop even faster in August (the latest data available) as mortgage rates soared, crushing affordability. Analysts were right as the 20-City Composite index plunged 1.32% MoM (far larger than the 0.8% drop expected), diving the YoY growth in the 20-City Composite to 13.08% (well down from the 14.0% exp)

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest MoM drop since March 2009 and the slowest YoY growth since Feb 2021.

“The forceful deceleration in U.S. housing prices that we noted a month ago continued,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in statement.

“Price gains decelerated in every one of our 20 cities. These data show clearly that the growth rate of housing prices peaked in the spring of 2022 and has been declining ever since.”

Miami, Tampa, Charlotte reported highest year-over-year gains among 20 cities surveyed, while on a seasonally-adjusted basis, prices fell the most in August (MoM) in San Francisco (-4.3%), Seattle (-3.9%), San Diego (-2.8%), and Los Angeles (-2.3%).

The growth in the national home price index has now slowed for 5 straight months (now below 13% YoY for the first time since Feb 2021). The absolute drop in the growth rate of 2.62 percentage points is the largest ever…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, given the unprecedented explosion in mortgage rates, just where will home prices end?

Source: Bloomberg

We would like to think Powell’s plan does not involve that kind of collapse… or maybe it is – since prices will have to fall considerably more to become affordable for the average American to follow his ‘dream’.

As Lazzara previously concluded, “as the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates upward, mortgage financing has become more expensive, a process that continues to this day.  Given the prospects for a more challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to decelerate.”

And by way of example, Pulte Homes today, during their earnings conference call, said that it was expanding incentives, including price-cuts, as sales slump.

“Demand clearly slowed in the period as dramatically higher interest rates created financial and psychological hurdles for potential homebuyers,” Ryan Marshall, PulteGroup’s president and chief executive officer, said in the statement.

Additionally, contracts were canceled in 24% of deals in the period, up from 15% in the second quarter, the Atlanta-based builder said in a statement Tuesday. Purchase contracts fell 28% from a year earlier to 4,924, missing the average estimate of 5,715 from analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. And bear in mind that this is for Q3 (after the heavily lagged Case-Shiller Index) with Pulte warning in today’s call that “demand got even more challenging in October”.

-END-

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

My goodness!! who knocked some sense into these 30 House Democrats.

(zerohedge)

30 House Dems Urge Dramatic Shift In Biden’s Ukraine Policy: ‘Get Serious About Diplomacy Or Risk Nuclear Miscalculation’

MONDAY, OCT 24, 2022 – 05:46 PM

In a wholly unexpected development, given that until just yesterday any prominent person wishing to talk Ukraine peace plan possibilities or who expressed hope for a negotiated end to the war was denounced and shouted down as a ‘Kremlin agent’, a group of 30 House Democrats is now urging the Biden administration to pursue a diplomatic track with Moscow.

The Washington Post, which detailed the contents of a letter sent to President Biden by the Congressional Dems, underscored they are calling for the US to “dramatically shift” its strategy on the Ukraine war for the first time, with the grinding conflict now reaching the eight-month mark.

“The longer the war in Ukraine goes on, the greater the risk of escalation — to widespread, devastating effect,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), who is leading the efforts for a comprehensive strategy shift, told the Washington Post. “We should have no illusions about the challenge ahead of us, but … my colleagues and I are urging the Administration to engage in a proactive diplomatic push in an effort to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire.”Rep. Pramila Jayapal and other Progressive Democrats, via The Hill.

Crucially, it seems the past month of heightened nuclear rhetoric is actually waking up some of the politicians who appeared to be sleepwalking straight into “Armageddon” – as Biden’s own ultra-alarming remarks on October 6 put it. Biden had said at the time before a Democratic audience at a New York fundraiser, “We’re trying to figure out what is Putin’s off-ramp? Where does he get off? Where does he find a way out?” And he then asserted of the Russian president, “He is not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological and chemical weapons.”

The group of 30 Dems in their letter seize on some of these past warnings of stumbling into WW3, addressing Biden as follows…

Crucially, you achieved this while also maintaining that it is imperative to avoid direct military conflict with Russia, which would lead to “World War III, something we must strive to prevent.” The risk of nuclear weapons being used has been estimated to be higher now than at any time since the height of the Cold War. Given the catastrophic possibilities of nuclear escalation and miscalculation, which only increase the longer this war continues, we agree with your goal of avoiding direct military conflict as an overriding national-security priority.

Given the destruction created by this war for Ukraine and the world, as well as the risk of catastrophic escalation, we also believe it is in the interests of Ukraine, the United States, and the world to avoid a prolonged conflict. For this reason, we urge you to pair the military and economic support the United States has provided to Ukraine with a proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire. This is consistent with your recognition that “there’s going to have to be a negotiated settlement here,” and your concern that Vladimir Putin “doesn’t have a way out right now, and I’m trying to figure out what we do about that.”

Except that there really hasn’t been much in the way of earnest “efforts” seeking a “realistic framework” for ceasefire for a long time… arguably not since the opening three months of the war, which left off with the Istanbul negotiations. One exceptional bright spot to come out of Istanbul, however, was the UN and Turkey-brokered grain export deal, which it should be noted has been hanging by a thread.

This new push for the US to get serious about the negotiating table comes after leading Republicans signaled that in a future GOP-led house, there would be no “blank check” writing for Ukraine, after the US has already pledged an unprecedented tens of billions of dollars. So now it seems a contingency of Democrats are bracing for that distinct possibility given the nearness of the November mid-terms.

“We are under no illusions regarding the difficulties involved in engaging Russia given its outrageous and illegal invasion of Ukraine,” the Democrats’ letter continues.

“If there is a way to end the war while preserving a free and independent Ukraine, it is America’s responsibility to pursue every diplomatic avenue to support such a solution that is acceptable to the people of Ukraine.”

And yet, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has vowed to never negotiate or compromise on ceding territory (apparently including Crimea), especially so long as Putin is still in power. But likely Washington alone has the power to push Zelensky to back off this maximalist stance. It seems some within Biden’s party realize such an intractable posture in Kiev is recipe for a lose-lose escalation leading to catastrophe in the making.

Yet, so far those voices remain a minority. WaPo notes that despite the big Democratic Progressive names on the letter, including AOC, a major shift in administration policy in Ukraine remains unlikely for now. “The letter was signed by some of the best-known and most outspoken liberal Democrats in Congress, including Reps. Jamie Raskin (Md.), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.), Cori Bush (Mo.), Ro Khanna (Calif.) and Ilhan Omar (Minn.),” the report details.

Maybe the growing pressure from progressive anti-war activists had something to do with AOC doing some soul-searching on the Ukraine issue?…

WaPo concludes, “For now, their position remains a minority in the Democratic Party, which has overwhelmingly supported Biden’s denunciations of Russia and his spearheading of a global coalition to funnel massive support to Ukraine. Biden has framed the conflict as part of his broader view that the world is witnessing a historic confrontation between authoritarianism and democracy.”

END

Then complete retraction:

“Progressive” Democrats Formally Retract Call For Diplomacy As Ukraine War Hawks Steamroll Dissent

TUESDAY, OCT 25, 2022 – 01:18 PM

Update(1318ET): That didn’t take long… the 30 Houses Progressive Democrats led by Rep. Pramila Jayapal (WA-07), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, has early Tuesday afternoon issued a complete retraction of their letter sent to the Biden White House urging diplomacy on Ukraine, per an official statement [emphasis ours]: 

“The Congressional Progressive Caucus hereby withdraws its recent letter to the White House regarding Ukraine.”

“The letter was drafted several months ago, but unfortunately was released by staff without vetting. As Chair of the Caucus, I accept responsibility for this. Because of the timing, our message is being conflated by some as being equivalent to the recent statement by Republican Leader McCarthy threatening an end to aid to Ukraine if Republicans take over. The proximity of these statements created the unfortunate appearance that Democrats, who have strongly and unanimously supported and voted for every package of military, strategic, and economic assistance to the Ukrainian people, are somehow aligned with Republicans who seek to pull the plug on American support for President Zelensky and the Ukrainian forces.”

What’s more is that Jayapal’s retraction – after giving the ole “blame the interns” excuse (“unfortunately was released by staff without vetting”) – actually goes so far as to suggest diplomacy won’t be possible until after Ukrainian victory. The retraction concludes: 

“Nothing could be further from the truth. Every war ends with diplomacy, and this one will too after Ukrainian victory. The letter sent yesterday, although restating that basic principle, has been conflated with GOP opposition to support for the Ukrainians’ just defense of their national sovereignty. As such, it is a distraction at this time and we withdraw the letter.”

Glenn Greenwald observes they couldn’t even hold out for 24 hours…

There’s also a “blame the GOP” defense going on in this deeply awkward and embarrassing episode, which might also be the clearest demonstration yet of war hawks and the Washington deep state’s swift ability to so easily coopt and control the talking points of these “progressives”. A contingency of thirty of them got steamrolled into conformity literally within a matter of hours. Via AP

CNN reports that fellow Dems are “furious” – also given the timing just ahead of the midterms: 

The public reversal comes amid a backlash from Democrats who criticized the timing of the letter, which was sent on Monday.

“People are furious – especially front-liners,” said one senior House Democrat ahead of the letter being withdrawn, referring to the most vulnerable members at risk of losing their seats in the November 8 midterms.

* * *

end

about time…

(zerohedge)

NY Judge Strikes Down NYC Vax Mandate, Slams Mayor; Orders Worker Reinstatement With Back-Pay

TUESDAY, OCT 25, 2022 – 01:59 PM

A New York Supreme Court judge on Monday struck down NYC’s vaccine mandate for all city workers, finding that the rule was unconstitutional, arbitrary, and capricious.

“So, we just defeated the vaccine mandate for every single city employee—not just sanitation,” said Attorney Chad LaVeglia, who announced the verdict outside the Richmond County courthouse, adding that the mandate was now “null and void.“

“For all the brave men and women who have been our first responders and have been brave through all this are now free, and you should be able to go back to work,” he added.

The ruling comes after more than 2,000 city employees were fired for refusing to take the Covid-19 vaccine. It applies to all public workers, including the NY Fire Department, the police department and the Department of Corrections.

The lawsuit in question was filed on July 20 by 16 city employees who were fired for failing to comply with the mandate. It was struck down by Justice Ralph Porzio, who ruled against the city in finding that the mandate – which did allow exceptions, was an arbitrary and capricious order, and that Democrat Mayor Eric Adams “made a different decision for similarly situated people based on identical facts,” when he issued Executive Order No. 62.

According to Porzio, there was nothing on the record to “support the rationality of keeping a vaccination mandate for public employees, while vacating the mandate for private sector employees or creating a carveout for certain professions, like athletes, artists, and performers.”

“This is clearly an arbitrary and capricious action because we are dealing with identical unvaccinated people being treated differently by the same administrative agency,” he added.

As The Epoch Times continues, in his ruling, Porzio said city workers shouldn’t be terminated for choosing “not to protect themselves” with a vaccine, noting that “breakthrough cases occur” even for those who are vaccinated and boosted. He also noted that President Joe Biden has declared “the pandemic is over.”

The judge noted that New York ended its COVID-19 state of emergency “over a month ago.” He also noted that the first responders named in the lawsuit continued to work without protective gear, and had “created natural immunity” after catching COVID-19.

“They were terminated and are willing to come back to work for the City that cast them aside. The vaccination mandate for City employees was not just about safety and public health; it was about compliance. If it was about safety and public health, unvaccinated workers would have been placed on leave the moment the order was issued.

“If it was about safety and public health, the Health Commissioner would have issued city-wide mandates for vaccination for all residents. In a City with a nearly 80 percent vaccination rate, we shouldn’t be penalizing the people who showed up to work, at great risk to themselves and their families, while we were locked down.

“If it was about safety and public health, no one would be exempt. It is time for the City of New York to do what is right and what is just,” Porzio said in his ruling.

Finally, and most importantly, the court ordered the city to reinstate all fired employees and grant them backpay, citing the fact that being vaccinated against COVID-19 does not stop an individual from catching or spreading the virus, and thus being vaccinated does not grant enough community-wide benefit to warrant a mandate. The health commissioner “acted beyond his authority” by issuing an indefinite vaccine mandate rather than a temporary one, according to the court.

Will this set a precedent nationwide?

III B    USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS//INFLATION WATCH

Orange Juice Prices Soar To Record Highs As Inventories Collapse

TUESDAY, OCT 25, 2022 – 09:45 AM

We recently outlined “Orange Juice Prices Could “Increase Substantially” As Hurricane Pummels Florida’s Top Citrus Grow Region.” And that’s precisely what’s happening today. 

First, let’s begin with US stockpiles of cold-stored orange juice plunged by 43% in September from a year earlier — the lowest level since 1977, according to the latest US Department of Agriculture data. 

A combination of crop diseases across Florida’s citrus groves and Hurricane Ian that destroyed crops are creating a supply crunch that has catapulted orange juice futures contracts to as high as $2.18 per pound, the highest level ever. 

Ahead of Hurricane Ian, we penned a note titled “OJ Squeeze Ahead? Tropical Threat Looms For Florida’s Citrus Groves” and warned this may spark even higher breakfast inflation. Last month, we noted that a dozen eggs at the supermarket have jumped to record highs due to devastating bird flu. 

Sticky food inflation continues to wreak havoc on households, as shown in the latest CPI report. 

Breakfast was cheap but has since become expensive as orange juice and egg prices soar to record highs. 

end

Americans’ Consumer Sentiment Slumps As ‘Current Conditions’ Crash To 18-Month Lows

TUESDAY, OCT 25, 2022 – 10:05 AM

After an unexpected rebound in the last two months, analysts expected The Conference Board’s headline sentiment index to weaken in October and it did… considerably.

The headline print fell from 107.8 to 102.5 (well below the 105.9 expected). The drop was driven by a plunge in ‘current conditions’ which fell from 150.2 to 138.9 while ‘future expectations’ also slipped from 79.5 to 78.1…

That is the biggest monthly drop in ‘current conditions’ since Dec 2021, dragging it to its weakest since April 2021.

Given the gloomy signals from UMich (and history of the Conference Board overdoing things to the upside), is there more pain to come for the Conf Board measure…

Source: Bloomberg

We can only assume that Conference Board respondents are ‘wealthier’ than UMich respondents?

SWAMP STORIES

end

KING REPORT

The King Report October 25, 2022 Issue 6072

Independent View of the News

China Stocks Crater in US as Alibaba Leads $130 Billion WipeoutSelloff follows Xi power play in Communist Party reshuffleInvestors worry his move may lead to harsh policy stepsUS-listed Chinese stocks tumbled Monday on investor concern that President Xi Jinping’s tighter control over the government in a precedent-breaking third term will stifle the economy and private enterprise.     The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index of 65 Chinese stocks sank as much as 21%, erasing about $130 billion in market value to put the index at its lowest level since December 2012. Major internet companies from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., JD.com Inc. to Baidu Inc. also tanked at least 19%… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-24/alibaba-jd-com-tumble-in-us-as-xi-asserts-full-control-in-china   @zerohedge: So many US companies pulling operations from China today in protest of Xi’s authoritarian takeover of the Politburo.  Oh, no wait… none of that happened.   @Jkylebass: Xi’s wartime cabinet is in place. His 20th Party Congress purge not only installed loyalists, but two spy chiefs, and military leaders responsible for China’s ‘reunification’ with Taiwan. He sacked the only three men with markets experience (the heads of the PBOC, the CSRC, and finance minister). Xi also added the Ministry of State Security head to the Politburo and the Central Committee (Chen Wenqing). These moves send a clear message to the world that conflict and ‘Great Struggle’ are coming soon. Not since Mao has a Chinese leader stacked his cabinet with men (all men…no women, no blacks, no Hispanics, or anyone else but Han Chinese) with aerospace, weapons, surveillance, and military expertise. Conflict with Taiwan is now around the corner. The Great Chinese Liquidation of public and private equity is in full swing. Today’s 10-20% crash in Chinese shares is just the beginning of the destruction of western capital invested in Chinese companies. It appears that Xi’s ‘Great Struggle’ is also meant to inflict maximum pain to those who believed ‘reform and opening’.   Do Xi et al believe they have a window to take Taiwan before another US administration appears in 2025?  In 2025, “ten percent for The Big Guy” and millions to Hunter won’t have much value.   Justice Department says Chinese agents attempted to bribe US official to thwart investigation Attorney General Merrick Garland said prosecutors have filed charges in three separate cases against suspected Chinese actors, with three indictments unveiled Monday… Ten of the people charged are Chinese government agents… https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/justice-department-accuses-chinese-agents-attempt-bribe-us-official   Tesla Slumps to 16-Month Low as China Slowdown Spurs Price Cuts The carmaker cut the cost of the cheapest locally built Model 3 sedan by 5% to 265,900 yuan ($36,774), its website showed Monday. The company dropped the starting price of the Model Y SUV by 8.8% to 288,900 yuan. The move sent Tesla’s stock down as much as 7.4% to $198.59 in New York trading, the lowest intraday in 16 months…  https://www.yahoo.com/now/tesla-cuts-china-prices-partly-014837250.html   Tesla Records $170M Impairment on Bitcoin 9 Months Ended Sept 30 – Bloomberg News   The NY Fang+ Index hit -5.3% at 10:26 ET due to the tumble in Chinese tech stocks and Tesla’s woes.  But a robust rebound appeared.  As noted in Monday’s missive, big tech and mega-cap stocks report results this week.  Traders and algos are conditioned to buy Fangs and related stocks ahead of results due to the result rallies over the past decade or so.   ESZs hit a low of 3736.50 at 4:40 ET.  They surged to 3802.50 by 7:46 ET.  After a retreat to 3771.75 on the NYSE open, they surged to 3808.75 on conditioned buying.  Alas, sellers appeared; ESZs sank to 3751.75 at 10:23 ET.  But trader bullishness is extremely high, so ESZs rebounded to 3808 at 12:22 ET, abetted by Team Biden verbal intervention.  Yellen said the Treasury could ‘enhance the reliance of Treasuries.’   This is a transparent alert that the Treasury might rig the bond market.   Yellen Sees Environment Where US Financial Risks Could Emerge   11:04 ETTreasury chief ‘closely monitoring’ financial sector for risksYellen flags need for ‘enhancing’ resilience of TreasuriesThis is a “dangerous and volatile environment” for the global economy, including the surge in energy prices and increased volatility in financial markets, Yellen said in answering questions after a speech in New York Monday. It’s an environment in which “financial stability risks could materialize” in the US, she said… Trading in Treasuries… has been robust, Yellen said, though she highlighted past episodes of stress and noted continuing work to improve its functioning. The Treasury is “very focused” on the issue, she said in answering a question…     “Regulators have been working together to better monitor leverage in private funds and develop policies to reduce the first-mover advantage that could lead to investor runs in money market funds and open-end bond funds.”… Yellen’s comments marked the second time this month that she acknowledged concerns over the functioning of the $23.7 trillion market…     “In the past few years, we have seen some episodes of stress in this critical market,” she said. “These episodes underscore the importance of enhancing its resilience.”… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-24/yellen-sees-serious-global-headwinds-eyes-rise-in-volatility   Yellen Flags Potential for Buybacks of US Treasury Securities… to improve liquidity in the market… Bloomberg 12:26 ET (How dues reducing the supply of illiquid 20-year bonds improve market liquidity?) USZs hit a low of 117 19/32 (-1 17/32) at 10:27 ET.  They rallied to 118 24/32 on Yellen’s speech.  However, bond traders aren’t as gullible as stock jockeys.  USZs fell to 118 4/32 (-1.00) at 16:00 ET.   After an early afternoon retreat, ESZs zoomed higher, hitting a daily peak of 3822.00 at 15:18 ET.  The wind was at the back of equity bulls: Fangs results are nigh; the BoJ and Team Biden are intervening!  Alas, buyers were spent; so ESZs and stocks sank until 15:58 ET.     The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for October shows a contraction (49.9), as does the Services PMI (46.6).  51.0 and 49.5 were consensus; 52 and 49.3 were respectively recorded in September.   After the close, on a report that Amazon has a web services hirings freeze.  AMZN fell as much as 2%.   BBC: Incoming PM Rishi Sunak warns of profound economic challengesSunak will be UK’s next prime minister after winning the Conservative Party leadership contestIn a brief statement, he warns the country faces “profound economic challenges”…The party repeated calls for a general election, echoed by the Scottish National Party, the Liberal Democrats, and the Green Party    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-63327087  Positive aspects of previous session Conditioned buying for Q3 results boosted stocks   Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined sharply despite BoJ and Fed intervention Fangs declined sharply Gasoline and diesel fuel rallied ~3%   Ambiguous aspects of previous session How long will the BoJ need to intervene? Will Team Biden intervention continue into the Midterms?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Down   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3783.24 Previous session High/Low: 3810.74; 3741.65   Math scores hit historic low across the country during COVID pandemic: federal data https://t.co/LwO2A7mJ2I   Nation’s report card: Massive drop in math scores, slide in reading linked to COVID disruption Catholic schools, which tended to be quicker to reopen, did not see any declines in fourth grade math or eighth grade reading… One study found that students in elementary grades had recovered roughly one-fifth of what they had lost. In middle school, though, there was little evidence of recovery… https://www.chalkbeat.org/2022/10/24/23417139/naep-test-scores-pandemic-school-reopening   Record Bullish New York Gasoline Spread Signals Tightness Ahead – BBG Backwardation reached 22.44c/gallon in intraday trading on Monday… Wider spread signals prompt tightness in the physical market: Spot RBOB in New York is pegged at 10.75c/gallon over futures…   Chinese Gasoline to Reach US for the First Time Since 2019 – BBG US West Coast gasoline inventories are at their lowest seasonally on record going back to 1993: EIA   Biden sells US SPR oil to China, which refines it and sells gasoline back to the US.  China buys discounted Russian oil, refines the Rooski oil and sells gasoline to the US.  Bidenomics, catch it!!!   Kraft Heinz CEO predicts continued inflation, more price increases next year (But the Fed pivot!) https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/kraft-heinz-ceo-predicts-continued-inflation-more-price-increases-next-year   Today – Traders got blinded sided by the Chinese stock rout on Monday, but they still bought stocks.  The usual suspects are likely to pour into Fangs today because Google and Microsoft report results after the close; traders expect boffo results.  Plus, the BoJ and Team Biden are in intervention mode.   ESZs are -4.50; USZs are +3/32, and the yen/$ is 148.79 at 20:05 ET.   Expected economic data: Aug FHFA House Price Index -0.6% m/m; Aug CoreLogic 20-city house prices -0.7% m/m, 14.1% y/y; Oct Conference Board Consumer Confidence 105.2; Oct Richmond Fed Mfg -5   Expected earnings: UPS 2.85, GM 1.89, GE .47, HAL .56, VLO 6.82, KO .64, GLW .52, PHM 2.81, RTX 1.14, SHW 2.56, MMM 2.60, BIIB 4.19, PCAR 1.98, KMB 1.44, ITW 2.26, GOOGL 1.25, CB 2.43, TXN 2.38, UHS 2.38, MSFT 2.31, V 1.86   S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3877; 100-day MA: 3915; 150-day MA: 4031; 200-day MA: 4130 DJIA 50-day MA: 31,080; 100-day MA: 31,416; 150-day MA: 32,132; 200-day MA: 32,725   S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4570.18 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 3951.16 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3568.50 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3735.35 triggers a sell signal   WSJ: U.S.-Saudi Relations Buckle, Driven by Animosity Between Biden & Mohammed bin Salman Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman mocks US President Biden in private, making fun of the 79-year-old’s gaffes and questioning his mental acuity, according to people inside the Saudi government. He has told advisers he hasn’t been impressed with Biden since his days as vice president, and much preferred former President Donald Trump, the people said…     Saudi officials say they are frustrated the relationship is still viewed through the narrow lens of oil and security. Riyadh has framed the recent OPEC+ decision as vital to its core national interests, a technical decision that they say was needed to prevent a precipitous drop in crude prices. Prince Mohammed now sees high oil prices as perhaps his last shot to use the kingdom’s natural resources to modernize the Saudi economy and build a post-oil future…     Prince Faisal denied that Prince Mohammed had privately derided Mr. Biden or told aides he was unimpressed by him and favored Mr. Trump…     Mr. Biden and Prince Mohammed tried to build a personal rapport during the president’s trip to Jeddah in July, where they fist-bumped ahead of a three-hour meeting. But the president angered the royal by immediately raising human-rights allegations, people close to the talks said, including the 2018 death of Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi journalist based in Washington who was killed and dismembered by a team of Saudi agents inside the kingdom’s Istanbul consulate… https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-saudi-relations-biden-mbs-animosity-11666623661   Reuters: Biden wants voters to judge his energy level, not age https://t.co/NJXHE56KUU (The 40% of the time he is away speaks volumes about The Big Guy’s energy level.)   The President Slowly Deteriorates Before Our Eyes – National Review https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-president-slowly-deteriorates-before-our-eyes/   Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: Statement from the WH on Biden’s claim about passing student loan forgiveness “by a vote or two”— they say he was referring to the IRA, which reduced deficit in order to generate savings to pay for student loan cancellation. (Polls show Biden/WH gaslighting irks voters.)   Because the polls show Dems are in deep doodoo for the Midterms, some delusional Biden handler has decided to put The Big Guy in front of small groups.  The desperate ploy is not going well.   @bennyjohnson: BIDEN: “You elected the highest ranking black Indian, with Indian background, woman, in American history to be Vice President.” https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1584610911276658688   @Breaking911: BIDEN TO VP HARRIS: “Happy birthday to our great President.  We know your mom is always with you.”   https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1584670850338676740   @EndWokeness: Biden starts wandering in the wrong direction, is directed back to the WH https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1584627493411049472   MSNBC’s Rev. Al Sharpton questions Democratic messaging tactics, says Dems ‘have to deal with crime’ https://www.foxnews.com/media/msnbcs-rev-al-sharpton-questions-democratic-messaging-tactics-says-dems-have-deal-with-crime   Kathy Hochul dismisses NYer concerns on violent crime wave as ‘sense of fear’ https://trib.al/0NEDIAQ   Biden admin set to warn about threats to nation’s election infrastructure A bulletin is slated to be issued this week… https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/24/biden-election-infrastructure-national-security-warnings-00063134   @seanmdav: Garland setting the stage for Democrats to deny November’s election results claiming they only lost because muh Russia or something stupid like that. It’s going to be 2016 all over again.   Rubio campaign canvasser ‘brutally’ beaten by man who told him GOPers not allowed in his neighborhood (Only mentioned in NY Post) https://trib.al/DYQPSJK   Why did Census undercount some red states, overcount blue? One lawmaker demands answers Rep. Troy Nehls says the errors cost Texas a congressional seat, vows an investigation, calling the miscount “deeply concerning for the legitimacy of our Democracy.” https://justthenews.com/accountability/why-did-census-undercount-some-red-states-over-count-blue-one-lawmaker-demands   WaPo: Liberals urge Biden to rethink Ukraine strategy Democratic lawmakers’ letter calls for direct U.S. talks with Russia      “The longer the war in Ukraine goes on, the greater the risk of escalation — to widespread, devastating effect,” Jayapal said in a statement to The Post… For now, their position remains a minority in the Democratic Party, which has overwhelmingly supported Biden’s denunciations of Russia and his spearheading of a global coalition to funnel massive support to Ukraine…     When asked how long the United States can be expected to pour billions into the war effort, Biden and his top aides frequently say, “as long as it takes.” But privately, U.S. officials say neither Russia nor Ukraine is capable of winning the war outright, suggesting a fundamental change in dynamic would be required if the conflict is to end in the foreseeable future…     A Pew Research poll found that the share of Americans who are extremely or very concerned about a Ukrainian defeat fell from 55 percent in May to 38 percent in September… https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/24/biden-ukraine-liberals/   Chicago shootings: 9 juveniles among at least 51 shot, 10 fatally, in weekend violence, police say https://abc7chicago.com/shootings-in-chicago-this-weekend-shooting-breaking-news-violence/12368923/   Some reports have 67 people shot and 14 killed in Chicago over the weekend.

GREG HUNTER REPORT

WILL SEE YOU TOMOROW