OCT 24/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $1.80 TO $1649.70//SILVER CLOSED UP 6 CENTS TO $19.23//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $12.35 TO $922.25//PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $48,50 TO $1969.75//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//VACCINE INJURIES//UK UPDATES: SUNAK THE LIKELY PRIME MINISTER//CHINESE MARKETS TUMBLE ON THE CERITIFICATION OF XI’S 3RD TERM WITH MORE STRINGENT REFORMS//JAPAN CENTRAL BANK INTERVENS AGAIN WITH 50 BILLIONS WORTH OF YEN PURCHASES AND THIS FAILS AGAIN//LOOKS LIKE 26 MILLION BRITS WILL ENTER ENERGY POVERTY//BOLEN: AN EXCELLENT COMMENTARY SUGGESTING WHY THE ECB AND THEIR CENTRAL BANKS ARE IN TROUBLE//MASSIVE MISSILE STRIKES HIT MAJOR UKRAINE CITIES THROWING THEM INTO DARKNESS/AMERICAN EXPRESS PLACES HUGE AMOUNT INTO BAD LOSS PROVISIONS INDICATING EVEN THE WEALTHY ARE SUFFERING//HUGE DOWNFALL IN BOTH THE USA PMI’S //SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

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GOLD PRICE CLOSE: DOWN $1.80 to $1649.70

SILVER PRICE CLOSE:  UP $0.06 to $19.23

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1649.10

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 19.22

New: early yesterday morning//

Bitcoin morning price: $19,421 UP 211

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $19,419 UP 2.00

Platinum price closing DOWN $12.35 AT  $922.25

Palladium price; closing DOWN $48.50  at $1969.75

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD $2262.36 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ UP $6.89 CDN DOLLARS

BRITISH GOLD IN POUNDS: 1462.36 POUNDS PER OZ DOWN 4.27 BRITISH POUNDS PER OZ/

EURO GOLD: 1670.70 EUROS PER OZ// UP DOWN 9.58 EUROS PER OZ///

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

 EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2022 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,651.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/21/2022 DELIVERY DATE: 10/25/2022
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


323 C HSBC 6
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 130
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 9
661 C JP MORGAN 13
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 17
880 C CITIGROUP 109
905 C ADM 6


TOTAL: 145 145
MONTH TO DATE: 23,303

JPMORGAN STOPPED  13/145 

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT CONTRACT:    145 NOTICES FOR 14,500 OZ  or 0.45101 TONNES

total notices so far: 23,303 contracts for 2,330,300 oz (72.480 tonnes) 

SILVER NOTICES: 6 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 30,000 OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month  450 :  for 2,250,000  oz



END

Russia is a major supplier of silver to London while Mexico supplies the COMEX

With the sanctions, London has no way to obtain silver other than compete with NY.

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80

WITH RESPECT TO GLD WITHDRAWALS:  (OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS):

GOLD IS “RETURNED” TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHEN CALLING IN THEIR LEASES: THE GOLD NEVER LEAVES THE BANK OF ENGLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BANK IS PROTECTING ITSELF IN CASE OF COMMERCIAL FAILURE

ALSO INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /////A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES INTO THE GLD//

INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.10 TONNES

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 6 CENTS

AT THE SLV// :/BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .563 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 485.610 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE


SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 782  CONTRACTS TO 138,208  AND CLOSER TO  THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR   $0.43 GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY.  OUR BANKERS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.43)., AND UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGE OF 1101 CONTRACTS. HUGE NUMBERS OF SPECS CONTINUE TO ADD TO THEIR SHORTFALLS FROM WHICH OUR  BANKERS CONTINUE TO BE PURCHASERS OF NET COMEX LONGS. SOME SPEC LONGS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS 

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
I) ZERO  SPECULATOR SHORT COVERINGS BUT CONSIDERABLE SHORT ADDITIONS ////CONTINUED BANKER OI COMEX ADDITIONS /// SOME NEWBIE SPEC LONG ADDITIONS. II)  WE ALSO HAD  SOME  REDDIT RAPTOR BUYING//.   iii)  A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.580 MILLION OZ FOLLOWING AN 5,000 OZ QUEUE. JUMP    / //  V)   STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ 

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: +21

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 18 days, total 55,880 contracts:  27.940 million oz  OR 1.522MILLION OZ PER DAY. (310 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 27.940  MILLION OZ

.

LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  27.940 MILLION OZ INITIAL

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 782 WITH OUR   $0.43 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 340 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT. OF 1.580 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 QUEUE JUMP  .. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1101 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES FOR 5.505 MILLION  OZ..

 WE HAD 6  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  30,000  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 2896 CONTRACTS  TO 441,151 AND FURTHER FROM TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE COMEX OI FALL TO AROUND 380,000 AS OUR SPECS GET ANNIHILATED.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED -220   CONTRACTS.

.

THE FAIR SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI CAME DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $19.10//COMEX GOLD TRADING/FRIDAY //  CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT  COVERINGS ACCOMPANYING OUR FAIR SIZED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE./. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION  AND MINOR SPEC SHORT ADDITIONS BUT MAJOR SPEC SHORT COVERINGS.   // CONTINUED ADDITIONS TO OUR BANKER LONGS!! THE COMEX WILL BLOW UP AS THE SPECS CANNOT DELIVER GOLD TO OUR BANKER LONGS.

WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF  15,800 OZ//NEW STANDING 73.679TONNES (QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MONTH’S END)

YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF  $19.10 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING

WE HAD A TINY SIZED GAIN OF 82 OI CONTRACTS 0.255 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES..

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2978 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 441,371

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 82 CONTRACTS  WITH 2896 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2978 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 82 CONTRACTS OR 0.255 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2978) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (2896): TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 82 CONTRACTS. WE NO DOUBT HAD 1) STRONG SPECULATOR SHORT ADDITIONS// CONTINUED GOOD BANKER ADDITIONS/// CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT COVERINGS// STRONG NEWBIE SPEC  ADDITIONS  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 66.099 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 15,800 OZ QUEUE. JUMP ///NEW STANDING 73.679 TONNES//.    3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //// //.,4)  FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2022 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT. :

43,544 CONTRACTS OR 4,354,400 OZ OR 135.440 TONNES 18 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2419 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 18  TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES: 135.44 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2021, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  135.44/3550 x 100% TONNES  3.83% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2022 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247,44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  135.44  TONNES INITIAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW   NON ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF NOV. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH SILVER AND GOLD (WILL BE SMALL AS SPREADERS DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO NOVEMBER)

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV., FOR BOTH GOLD AND SILVER:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER, ROSE  BY A STRONG SIZED 782 CONTRACT OI TO  138,187 AND CLOSER TO   OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  

EFP ISSUANCE 340 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 340  ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  340 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 761  CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 340  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN  OF 1122  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5.610 MILLION OZ//

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF  $0.43

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

2 ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,

(Peter Schiff,

end

3. Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

end

5. Other gold commentaries

6. Commodity commentaries//

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING// SUNDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 61.37 PTS OR 2.03%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 1,030.43 OR 6.36%    /The Nikkei closed UP 84.32PTS OR 0.31%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.54%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.2626 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.3184//    /Oil DOWN TO 84,08 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92.69    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 C CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A FAIR SIZED 2896 CONTRACTS TO 441,151 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD THAT WAS SET IN JANUARY/2020: {799,541  OI(SET JAN 16/2020)} AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: 797,110 (SET JAN 7/2020). AND THIS SMALL  COMEX INCREASE OCCURRED  WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $19.10  IN GOLD PRICING  FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED EFP (2978 CONTRACTS). . THEY WERE PAID HANDSOMELY  NOT TO TAKE DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AND SETTLE FOR CASH. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE COMMERCIALS HAVE GOADED THE SPECS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT  AND NOW THEY ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR FOLLY.

WE NORMALLY HAVE WITNESSED  EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS ISSUED BEING SMALL AS IT JUST TOO COSTLY FOR THEM TO CONTINUE SERVICING THE COSTS OF SERIAL FORWARDS CIRCULATING IN LONDON. HOWEVER, MUCH TO THE ANNOYANCE OF OUR BANKERS, THE COMEX IS THE SCENE OF AN ASSAULT ON GOLD AS LONDONERS, NOT BEING ABLE TO FIND ANY PHYSICAL ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND, EXERCISE THESE CIRCULATING EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN LONDON AND FORCING DELIVERY OF REAL METAL OVER HERE AS THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH NEW YORK BANKERS. IT SEEMS THAT ARE BANKERS FRIENDS ARE EXERCISING EFP’S FROM LONDON AND NOW THEY ARE LOATHE TO ISSUE NEW ONES.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2978 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:  ;: ,  . 0 DEC : 2978  & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2978 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED  TOTAL OF 82  CONTRACTS IN THAT 2978 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR  SIZED  COMEX OI LOSS OF 2896  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS TINY SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF GOLD $19.10//WE HAD SOME SPEC SHORTS ADDITIONS,  WITH BANKERS  AS BUYERS OF COMEX GOLD CONTRACTS.  WE ALSO HAD SOME ADDITIONAL  NEWBIE SPECS GOING LONG WITH NEWS OF ADDITIONAL DOLLARS SENT TO THE SWISS NATIONAL BANK. 

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING OCT   (73.699),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL SO FAR THIS YEAR (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  73.669 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE  //// (IT ROSE $19.10) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS// SPEC SHORTS ADDED TO THEIR POSITIONS AS WE HAD A TINY SIZED TOTAL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 302 CONTRACTS //     WE HAVE  REGISTERED A FAIR GAIN  OF 0.2550 PAPER TONNES ON TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (73.699 TONNES)…THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $19.10 

WE HAD -220  CONTRACTS  COMEX TRADES REMOVED. THESE WERE REMOVED AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 82 CONTRACTS OR 8200  OZ OR  0.255 TONNES

Estimated gold volume 165,975//  poor//

final gold volumes/yesterday  282,601/ good

INITIAL STANDINGS FOR OCT ’22 COMEX GOLD //OCT 24

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oznil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 113,258.856oz


Brinks  
Manfra







 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oznil 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz113,258.856 oz
Brinks
No of oz served (contracts) today145   notice(s)
14,500  OZ
0.45101 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)385 contracts 
38500 oz
1.1975
 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month23,303 notices
2,330,300
72.48 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthxxx oz

total dealer deposit  0

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 1

i)Into Brinks:  104.789 IZ

total deposits  104.789 oz

 customer withdrawals:2

i) Out of Manfra:  14.789 IZ

ii) Out of Brinks 113,258.856 OZ

total:  113,258.856 oz

total in tonnes: 3.52 tonnes

Adjustments: 4//    dealer to customer

i)hsbc: 3472.308 oz

ii) Out of Brinks 34,144.362 oz

iii) Out of JPMorgan:  2314.872 oz

iv) Out of Malca:  24,402.609 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.

For the front month of OCT we have an  oi of 530 contracts having LOST 550 contracts . We had  708 contracts

filed on FRIDAY, so we GAINED A STRONG 158 contracts or an additional 15,800 oz will  stand in this active delivery month of Oct.  From this point 

we should gain in total gold standing through to the end of Oct.( This is queue jumping and in reality it is the exercising of London based EFP;s for gold at the comex)

November GAINED 63 contracts to stand at 3630 (WE ARE GOING TO HAVE AN EXTRAORDINARILY LARGE NOV.GOLD DELIVERY)

December LOST 4822 contracts up to 358,480

We had 145 notice(s) filed today for 14,500 oz FOR THE OCT. 2022 CONTRACT MONTH. 


Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 145 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 13 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT /2022. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (23,303) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (OCT 530 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today 145 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,368,800 OZ  OR 73.679 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this  active month of OCT. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT contract month:

No of notices filed so far (23,303) x 100 oz+   (530)  OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (145} x 100 oz} which equals 2,368,800 oz standing OR 73.699  TONNES in this NON active delivery month of OCTOBER.

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING:  73.699 TONNES  (A HUMONGOUS STANDING FOR OCT (GENERALLY THE POOREST DELIVERY MONTHS FOR AN ACTIVE MONTH)

 WE WILL INCREASE IN GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FROM THIS DAY FORTH UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH.

SOMEBODY IS AFTER A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD.  THE EFPS ARE NOW BEING USED TO TAKE GOLD FROM THE COMEX.  THUS THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT. WILL RISE EXPONENTIALLY.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,969,106.336 OZ   61.2247 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  25,472,301.579 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,864,868.879  OZ (369.04tonnes)..dropping fast

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 13,607,432,700 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,898,762 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 307.799 tonnes//rapidly declining 

END

SILVER/COMEX

OCT 24//INITIAL OCT SILVER CONTRACT

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory1,738,338.4990 oz
Brinks
Int Delaware
Delaware

CNT
JPMorgan
Loomis








 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventorynil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory0 oz
 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)CONTRACT(S)  
 (30,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)233 contracts 
(1,165,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)450 contracts
 2,250,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month


i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil    oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have  6 withdrawals out of the customer account

i) Out of CNT: 184,371,199 oz

ii) out of Brinks  238,440.740 oz

iii) Out of jPMorgan: 581,890.900 oz

iv) Out of Delaware 1001.89 oz

v)Out of Int. Delaware 13,721.570 oz

vi) Out of Loomis: 600,712.200

Total withdrawals:  1,738,338.499 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 158.73million oz/302,771million =52.52% of comex 

 Comex deposits: 2

i) Into CNT  363m963.416 oz
ii)Into HSBC: 55,626,300 oz

total:  419,589.716 oz

 adjustments: 1

Manfra: dealer to customer:  2,093,088.394 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 36.041 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly)

TOTAL REG + ELIG. 302.771 MILLION OZ (also declining)

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF OCT OI: 239 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 11 CONTRACT(S.) 

WE HAD 12 NOTICES FILED ON THURSDAY SO WE  GAINED 1 

SILVER CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ WILL  STAND FOR OCT. 

NOVEMBER LOST 31 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 292

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 7 CONTRACTS UP TO 110,637

.

 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 6 for  30,000 oz

Comex volumes:61,672// est. volume today// fair   

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 88,347 contracts ( good)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  450 x 5,000 oz = 2,250,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT(239) and the number of notices served upon today 6 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the OCT./2022 contract month: 450 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (239)  – number of notices served upon today (6) x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates 3,415,000 oz. .

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

Comex volumes:81,282// est. volume today//    good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 60,219 contracts ( fair)

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.10 TONNES

OCT 21/WITH GOLD UP $19.10: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.99 TONNES

OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $2.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.08 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 932.73 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $20.65:: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.81 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.10 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $14.55: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.28 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.13 TONNES

OCT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $26.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.40 TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.16 TONNES INTO THE GLD// CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.47 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD UP $4.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 10//WITH GOLD DOWN $33.50 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.31 TONNES

OCT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.70: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $.70 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.34 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD UP $28.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.19 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.89 TONNES

OCT 3.WITH GOLD UP $29.30 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD AND A BIG SURPRISE: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.70 TONNES

SEPT 30  WITH GOLD UP $3.75 TODAY : BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.15 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $.85 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.3 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.16 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $32.30: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 940.549 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.75: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 943.47 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.15: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.23 TONNES

SEPT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.60: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.03 TONNES FORM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 950.13 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.20; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD UP $4.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.79 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.16 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.65; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.90 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.95 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONES FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.85 TONNES

SEPT 16.WITH GOLD UP $5.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT 1,45 TONNES INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 962.01 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.20: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 960.56 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.70: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY REST AT 962.88 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 928.10 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

OCT 24/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .553 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.610 MILLION OZ//

OCT 21/WITH SILVER UP 43 CENTS: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .46 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.163MILLION OZ//

OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .921 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.703 MILLION OZ//

OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AWITHDRAWAL OF 1.105 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.624 MILLION OZ///

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.658 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.729 MILLION OZ///

OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 486.071 MILLION OZ//

OCT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 77 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.211 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.920 MILLION OZ//

OCT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.513 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.709 MILLION OZ//

Oct 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.066 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.196 MILLION OZ

OCT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.447 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.130 MILLION OZ/

OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.3 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 475.617  MILLION OZ//

OCT 4WITH SILVER UP $.51 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ

OCT 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 30/WITH SILVER UP 31 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.013 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.917 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.904 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP $.52 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 645,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 480.549 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS : BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 737.000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.194 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 68 CENTS: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .507 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.931 MILLION

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .691 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.424 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 33 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY  AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.902 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.115 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.475 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.213 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: GIGANTIC CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 8.108 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.738 MILLION OZ

SEPT 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.63 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $.25 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.151 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.050 MILLION OZ//

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER UP $0.06 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.899 MILLION OZ/

CLOSING INVENTORY 485.610 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1.PETER SCHIFF

Ron Paul: Wreck The Economy, Win A Nobel Prize

MONDAY, OCT 24, 2022 – 01:45 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Ben Bernanke was one of the architects of the inflation you’re suffering from today. He won a Nobel Prize for his efforts.

Bernanke rolled out quantitative easing to rescue the economy in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. At the time, he swore it was a temporary emergency measure and that the Fed would eventually sell all of the bonds it was accumulating on its balance sheet. He insisted that it was not a debt monetization scheme.

Of course, it was a debt monetization scheme.

After a half-hearted effort to shrink the balance sheet a decade after the Great Recession, the Fed abandoned the effort as soon as the stock market tanked at the end of 2018. It went right back to QE and then launched QE infinity to deal with the government’s response to the pandemic.

As Peter Schiff has been saying, the inflation problem of today started decades ago and Bernanke was one of the chief culprits. As Ron Paul put it, “Honoring Bernanke for his advice on what government should do when banks fail is like giving a fire safety award to an arsonist.”

The following article by Ron Paul was originally published by the Ron Paul Institute. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is a 2022 recipient of the Nobel Prize in economics for his writings on how government should respond to bank failures. Honoring Bernanke for his advice on what government should do when banks fail is like giving a fire safety award to an arsonist.

Bernanke was Fed chairman when the housing bubble, created by his predecessor Alan Greenspan in the wake of the bursting of Greenspan’s tech bubble and the 9-11 attacks, exploded. When the housing market collapsed, Bernanke worked with Congress and the Bush administration to bail out big banks and Wall Street firms.

In the years following the meltdown, the Bernanke-led Fed tried to “stimulate” the economy via massive money creation, near-zero interest rates, and “quantitative easing,” where the Fed injects liquidity into the market via purchases of financial assets including Treasury bonds.

The Fed’s post-meltdown policies produced sluggish growth at best while laying the groundwork for the next bust. A sign that the next crash was around the corner came in September of 2019 when the Federal Reserve began pumping billions of dollars a day into the “repurchasing” market, which banks use to make overnight loans to each other, in order to keep that market’s interest rates from rising above the Fed’s target rate. The covid lockdowns then gave the Fed an excuse to push interest rates to zero and massively expand quantitative easing.

The Fed’s actions are the prime culprit behind the price inflation plaguing America’s economy. The Fed has responded to the price inflation by increasing interest rates, although rates remain much lower than they would be in a free market. The fact that even these relatively small increases helped push the fragile economy into recession shows the instability of our debt-based economic system.

Bernanke, and Congress, should have responded to the meltdown by letting the recession that followed the meltdown run its course. This is the only way the economy can adjust to the market distortions caused when the Fed increases the money supply and lowers interest rates.

Those who worry that this “don’t do something, just stand there” approach would inflict long-term economic pain on the American people should consider the economic depression of 1920. During this depression, the Fed refrained from trying to “stimulate” the economy, and Congress actually cut spending. The result was the downturn was quickly over. Sadly, the lessons of 1920 are largely ignored by mainstream economic historians.

In response to my questioning at a Financial Services Committee hearing, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke admitted he did not consider gold to be money. Of course, gold and other precious metals are money because individuals have selected them whenever they had the freedom to choose a currency. One reason for this is that precious metals are uniquely suited to serve as a stable unit of account. In contrast, government rulers have favored fiat money precisely because it can never serve as an honest unit of account due to its value being constantly manipulated by central bankers. This is often done at the behest of power-hungry politicians.

Therefore, under a fiat monetary system we cannot know the true value of goods and services. This is why to create a sound economy that provides prosperity we should audit then end the fed.

END

2. Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Could the U.S. or any other country go back to a gold standard

We hear from time to time some economist or politician suggesting that his/her country introduce a gold backing for their country’s currency to stabilise it, although there are few countries where this would have much, if any, global impact. But one country where this would have a huge effect, and where the idea is raised from time to time, before usually being written off as totally impractical, is the U.S. – the last country which did in fact have an effective currency tie to gold until President Nixon closed the so-called gold window back in 1971.

The subject of the U.S. re-introducing a Gold Standard has yet again come to the fore with U.S. Representative Alex Mooney proposing on October 9th to repeg the dollar to gold with the Gold Standard Restoration Act – HR 9157. The proposed Act notes among other things that: The U.S. dollar has lost more than 30 percent of its purchasing power since 2000, and 97 percent of its purchasing power since the passage of the Federal Reserve Act in 1913….The American economy needs a stable dollar, fixed exchange rates, and money supply controlled by the market not the government … The Gold Standard would put control of the money supply with the market instead of the Federal Reserve, discourage excessive deficit spending, and encourages the balancing of Federal budgets, inter alia.

As with any such proposal there are a huge number of pros and cons revolving around pricing and implementation, many of which would most likely make the whole idea totally unrealistic. As presented the Act would involve the U.S. Treasury Secretary defining the value of the dollar in terms of a fixed weight of gold at the closing price of gold on a specific day within 30 months after the date of the Act’s enactment. It would have to make Federal Reserve notes redeemable for and exchangeable with gold at this fixed price and create mechanisms that facilitate such redemptions and exchanges between banks and the public.

Adhering to the restrictions implicit in the implementation of a true gold standard would be virtually impossible in this day and age of deficit financing and government debt, while the pricing of gold implicit in the Act would be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. As implied in the Mooney proposals letting the markets set the fixed price could be suicidal and lead to an enormous run on the nation’s gold holdings which would, in our opinion at least, lead to their complete decline. However, if that particular suggestion were to be ignored and the gold price set high enough to dissuade withdrawals, this would be totally unacceptable to the large proportion of the nations of the world which hold little or no gold in their reserves.

The overall arguments revolve around which is perceived as a better route to follow: the fiat currency one as at present where the potential for printing more and more dollars to finance economic profligacy can be seen as unlimited, or the far more restrictive economic controls under a gold standard system. Both have their adherents, although the fiat currency system is winning out for the time being and it is hard to see any return to an alternative.

Proponents of the Gold Standard will point to statistics suggesting that U.S. annual growth was higher when it was in place, average incomes grew faster, national debt was far lower and managed better with trade deficits being far better controlled. Defence spending would also have been far better kept in check preventing some U.S. global military involvements – although whether this should be considered a pro or con probably depends on one’s political leanings.

On the other side of the coin it is felt that gold price volatility can not provide the kind of performance necessary to maintain economic stability. It would limit the ability of the Government or the Federal Reserve to help the economy out of recessions and depressions, and to address unemployment should such problems arise. This volatility is said to be responsible for leading to periodic deflations and recessions affecting the overall economy. In potentially restricting defence spending it could adversely impact the country’s security and ability to defend itself.

Currently it seems that the majority of prominent economists are strongly, and vocally, against any return to a Gold Standard. Indeed the Britannica ProCon.org website quotes Anil K. Kashyap, PhD, Professor of Economics and Finance at the University of Chicago, as stating, “Love of the Gold Standard implies macroeconomic illiteracy.”

Thus it seems that the latest submission to U.S. Congress regarding a return to a Gold Standard is, like its predecessors, doomed to failure. Any such proposal is also unlikely to find any traction elsewhere in the world, although the introduction of a gold standard in any other country other than China would probably have little global relevance.

24 Oct 2022

END

3.Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

For those of you who missed this on Friday, I urge you to watch Andrew’s tape

(Andrew Maguire/GATA)

GLD and SLV are ‘illusions’ as metal drains away, Maguire says

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2022-10-22 19:31Section: Daily Dispatches

7:31p ET Saturday, October 22, 2022

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In this week’s episode of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program, London metals trader Andrew Maguire calls the exchange-traded gold and silver funds GLD and SLV “purely illusions.” 

The gap between futures prices and prices of real metal has become so extreme, Maguire says, that little real metal is available at the futures price and the New York Commodities Exchange is quickly being drained of real metal.

The “Live from the Vault” episode is 44 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Base metals especially copper is very tight and this belies the price drop

(Bloomberg)

‘Strikingly tight’ copper market belies price drop, miner says

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-10-23 11:17Section: Daily Dispatches

By Yvonne Yue Li and James Attwood
Bloomberg News
Thursday, October 20, 2022

Copper prices don’t reflect a “strikingly tight” physical market, according to the world’s largest publicly-traded producer of the metal used in everything from computer chips to electric vehicles.

Macroeconomic headwinds have pushed copper futures down almost 30% from a peak in March, despite brisk demand and shrinking inventories that are nearing historical lows. 

It’s “striking how negative financial markets feel about this market and yet the physical market is so tight,” said Richard Adkerson, chief executive officer of Freeport-McMoRan Inc.

“We’re not seeing customers scaling back orders. Customers are really fighting to get products,” Adkerson said Thursday during a conference call with analysts after the miner reported adjusted third-quarter per-share profit that exceeded estimates. 

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-20/freeport-tops-copper-estimate-in-bearish-signal-for-metal-market

END

Egypt is set to introduce a new currency and this new currency might be based on gold

(Reuters)

Egypt’s new currency gauge might be based on gold, central bank boss says

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2022-10-23 20:28Section: Daily Dispatches

Egypt to develop New Currency Indicator to Wean People Off U.S. Dollar

By Patrick Werr, Mahmoud Murad, and Nayera Abdallah
Reuters
Sunday, October 23, 1011

CAIRO — Egypt will develop a new currency indicator partly to wean people off the idea that the Egyptian pound should be pegged to the U.S. dollar, the new central bank governor said today.

Hassan Abdalla, appointed in August, told an economic conference that the central bank was also working to introduce currency hedging and had already finished futures contracts as it revamps its currency trading system.

The indicator would be based on a basket of several currencies and possibly gold, he said.

“It is for the sake of the idea of pegging — and I’m not talking about the price, I’m speaking about the idea,” he said. “America is not my major trading partner. I don’t know why people are always fixated on the dollar.

“Part of our success will be in changing the culture and idea that we are pegged. We want to be seen against every currency.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/egypt-develop-new-currency-indicator-wean-people-off-us-dollar-2022-10-23/

END

4.  OTHER PHYSICAL SILVER/GOLD COMMENTARIES

END

5.OTHER COMMODITIES: DIESEL

US Has Only 25 Days of Diesel Supply; Shortage Could Cripple Economy

Inbox

Robert Hryniak2:54 PM (7 minutes ago)
to

America runs by truck. What happens when the diesel fuel runs out?????



US Has Only 25 Days of Diesel Supply; Shortage Could Cripple Economy

Trucks fill up on gas at the One9 truck stop in Wildwood, Georgia on Oct. 20, 2021. (Jackson Elliott/The Epoch Times)

The United States is down to 25 days of diesel supply as a top White House official declared the stockpile levels to be “unacceptably low.”

Data provided by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that diesel stockpiles are at their lowest level for October in records that date back to 1993, according to a Bloomberg News analysis. EIA data show that the United States, as of Oct. 14, has 25.4 days of supply—down from 34.2 days of supply four weeks prior.

National Economic Council Director Brian Deese, a top adviser to President Joe Biden, told Bloomberg News last week that current diesel levels are “unacceptably” low and that “all options are on the table” to increase supplies.

The diesel crunch comes just over two weeks before the November 2022 midterm elections and will likely drive up prices even more. Diesel is the fuel used by freight trains and commonly used by long-haul truckers to transport goods and food.

“Most of the products we use are transported by trucks and trains with diesel engines, and most construction, farming, and military vehicles and equipment also have diesel engines,” the EIA’s website states. “As a transportation fuel, diesel fuel offers a wide range of performance, efficiency, and safety features. Diesel fuel also has a greater energy density than other liquid fuels, so it provides more useful energy per unit of volume.”

Prices, meanwhile, remain relatively elevated, according to AAA data. The average price for a gallon of diesel stands at around $5.33 nationwide, or up nearly $2 since the same time in 2021, the data shows.

Wholesale diesel prices at the New York spot market spiked last week to more than $200 per barrel.

It comes as the Biden administration recently announced it would release another 15 million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, part of the 180 million Biden authorized in March, that Republicans say is a bid to keep Democrats politically afloat ahead of the midterms. But Biden and his allies say that it’s not a political tactic, and the administration says it will refill the reserve when prices drop to $67–$72 per barrel.

“The United States government is going to purchase oil to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve when prices fall to $70 a barrel,” Biden said on Oct. 19. “And that means oil companies can invest to ramp up production now, with confidence they’ll be able to sell their oil to us at that price in the future: $70.”

The move came after the International Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+) announced that it would cut oil production.

“Now, after draining our emergency reserves to a 40-year low, Democrats want billions more of taxpayer dollars to refill the [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] at more than double the price,” Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) told the New York Post last week. “This is a direct attack on every single American struggling to fill their tanks and heat their homes.”

Jack Phillips

Jack Phillips is a breaking news reporter at The Epoch Times based in New York.

end 

COMMODITIES IN GENERAL/

END

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCIES

7. GOLD/ TRADING

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.2626 

OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.3184

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 61.37 PTS OR 2.04%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 1030.43 OR 6.36% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 84.32 PTS OR 0.31%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  112.34/Euro FALLS TO 0.98143

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.249/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 149.25/JAPANESE YEN COLLAPSING AS WELL AS LONG TERM YIELDS RISING BREAKING THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   DOWN -//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. EIGHTY percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.3000%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.554%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.41%…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.83//

3j Gold at $1649.35//silver at: 19.21  7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0  AND 22/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 61.07//

3m oil into the 84 dollar handle for WTI and  92 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 149.35DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 1.0026– as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9853well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.156% DOWN 6 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.289% DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,61…GETTTING DANGEROUS

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.8415%

end

Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 FIRST, ZEROHEDGE

US Futures Stabilize After Rollercoaster Session As Yuan, Chinese Stocks Crater

MONDAY, OCT 24, 2022 – 08:12 AM

US stock futures steadied following a rollercoaster move earlier in the session and after Friday’s sharp rally as traders assessed moves by Chinese President Xi Jinping to tighten his grip on the nation’s leadership while keeping an eye on macro data now that the Fed is in a chatterbox blackout. Contracts on the S&P 500 edged 0.7% higher at 7:30a.m. in New York after earlier rising as much as 1.3% and dropping 0.7%, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped for a second session. Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.4% after bouncing between gains and losses earlier. Both underlying gauges are coming off their best week since June, and are entering the busiest week of the earnings season with 46% of the S&P 500’s market cap due to announce third-quarter results.

A gauge of the dollar’s strength rose sharply unwinding some of Friday’s losses, supported by a risk-off mood sparked by a rout across Chinese markets which saw the Hang Seng plunge 6.4%, the biggest one day drop since 2008!

The offshore yen resumed its decline, tumbling by 1.3% – the biggest one-day slide since August 20019, to a record of 7.31, while the pound outperformed on bets for fiscal caution from the next UK prime minister.

“Market sentiment could remain cautious near-term on China, on concerns of a shift of focus toward more state control versus a market-driven approach under the new leadership team,” said Xiaojia Zhi, the chief China economist at Credit Agricole CIB. “The exit path from zero-Covid is not yet clear.”

Chinese economic data that was delayed last week and published Monday showed a mixed recovery, with unemployment rising and retail sales weakening despite a pickup in growth. Yet Xi’s Covid-zero campaign looks likely to continue to drag on the economy and there has been speculation that his “common prosperity” goal may even lead to property and inheritance taxes.

“It’s clear demand is slowing but so far we’ve seen pockets of tech like software, cloud computing still being quite resilient,” said Laura Cooper, a senior investment strategist at BlackRock International Ltd., on Bloomberg TV. “We will be watching for any signs of cracks coming through that could put a dent to some of these earnings expectations.”

In premarket trading, US-listed Chinese stocks tumbled, dragged lower by major internet and EV names including Alibaba, Baidu and Li Auto, which closed down more than 11%; search company Baidu was 12% lower while food delivery firm Meituan tanked more than 14%. The moves come after Chinese President Xi Jinping paved the way for an unprecedented third term as leader and packed the Politburo standing committee with loyalists. Tesla shares dropped after the company cut prices in China, reversing hikes imposed earlier this year.US stock futures steadied after Friday’s rally as traders assessed moves by Chinese President Xi Jinping to tighten his grip on the nation’s leadership. Other notable premarket movers:

  • US-listed Macau casino stocks are also down, declining along with Chinese ADRs. Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) -7.9%, Wynn Resorts (WYNN US) -6.8%, Melco Resorts (MLCO US) -8.6%
  • FedEx (FDX US) declines 1.9% in premarket trading after it was cut to equal-weight from overweight at Wells Fargo on concern that the revenue implications are not yet “fully captured” as the company pivots from growth and toward efficiency.
  • Keep an eye on Williams-Sonoma (WSM US) stock as it was downgraded to underperform from hold at Jefferies, with broker saying it sees the home furnishing store operator underperforming ahead of a softer macroeconomic environment.
  • Watch NXP Semiconductors (NXPI US) and Analog Devices (ADI US) shares as they were downgraded at Barclays, with the brokerage saying it expects cuts in the analog chip sector in the coming year and recommended “rotating out of the sub-sector sooner rather than later.”

US investors have begun looking beyond the Federal Reserve’s ongoing tightening to a stage when it may begin to slow rate hikes. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and his San Francisco counterpart Mary Daly made it clear they expect discussion at the November meeting to include debate on how high to raise rates and when to ease the pace.

At the same time, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson expects stocks to grind higher as markets transition to expectations of falling inflation and lower interest rates. The strategist, who correctly predicted this year’s slump, sees the S&P 500 Index bouncing as much as 15% if it breaches its 200-week moving average of 3,605 points, about 4% below Friday’s close. A similar view is held by Stifel Nicolaus & Co. strategists, who said in a separate note they see the benchmark rallying to 4,300 points in the next 6 months.

“With the back end of the bond market offering real value for the first time since early 2021, rates are poised to come in,” Wilson in a note on Monday. “Such a move could provide the necessary fuel for the next leg of the tactical rally in stocks until we get full capitulation on 2023 earnings estimates, something we think may take a few more months.”

By contrast, Goldman Sachs Inc. strategists led by David Kostin are more cautious, seeing rising rates and slowing US growth hurting cyclicals and tech stocks. They recommend being overweight defensive sectors, as well as energy.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index held an advance of about 1.3%. Media, utilities and travel are the strongest-performing sectors in Europe while miners and energy lag. IBEX outperforms peers, adding 0.9%, FTSE 100 lags, dropping 0.4% after Boris Johnson pulled out of the race to lead the UK’s ruling Conservative Party, placing Rishi Sunak closer to becoming the next prime minister.  A 12% slump in Prosus NV shares amid the China concerns pushed the technology sector into the red, while basic resources and energy stocks weighed on the benchmark amid lower commodity prices. Michelin shares rose as much as 3.7% in Paris trading and are the day’s top performers on the Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts Index, with the French tiremaker set to give a quarterly sales update on Tuesday. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • Pearson shares jump as much as 7.8%, reaching the highest since January 2019, after the publishing and education company reported a 7% increase in underlying revenue in the first nine months of the year.
  • Indivior gains as much as 7.6%, the most since February, after Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from equal-weight, describing the stock as a “value, growth and margin expansion story.”
  • Auto Trader rises as much as 4.3% after announcing the disposal of Webzone Ltd. Peel Hunt upgrades to buy from hold, saying the sale shows the company’s “dedication to its key market.”
  • Temenos climbs as much as 8.2%, the most intraday since mid-June, after Dealreporter reported that Goldman Sachs and Citi are sounding out interest in the buyout of the Swiss banking software developer.
  • Prosus falls as much as 14% in Amsterdam and parent Naspers sinks as much as 14% in Johannesburg, with both declines the sharpest since March. Naspers holds a 28% stake in Tencent, which plunged in Hong Kong trading following President Xi Jinping’s move to stack his leadership ranks with loyalists.
  • Galp drops as much as 6.1% after reporting third-quarter profit that missed the average analyst estimate.
  • Philips falls as much as 4.5% to the lowest since 2011 after saying it would cut 4,000 jobs as part of a EU300 million cost-saving package, which analysts say may imply liquidity problems for the Dutch medical technology firm.

Asian stocks fell, dragged by Chinese shares as President Xi Jinping’s move to tighten his leadership deepened investor worries, offsetting advances in Australia, South Korea and Japan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased an earlier gain to drop as much as 1.2%, with Internet giants Tencent and Alibaba the biggest drags.  A selloff in Chinese stocks deepened in afternoon trading, as the Hang Seng plunged by more than 6%, its biggest drop since Lehman while the Hang Seng Tech Index crashed 9.7% to the lowest since February 2016, after Xi filled China’s most powerful bodies with close allies while securing a precedent-breaking third term. He installed six trusted associates alongside him on the Politburo’s supreme Standing Committee and put his former chief of staff Li Qiang in line for the premiership.

Investors remained jittery as a leadership reshuffle highlighted Xi’s unquestioned grip over the ruling party, with allies set to take up key economic posts. An early loosening of Covid restrictions seemed less likely, while a set of long-delayed economic data showed a mixed recovery, further damping market sentiment.

“The latest rally underlines our view that markets will remain volatile, and investors should prepare for large moves in both directions,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Incremental improvements in inflation or labor market data, indications of economic resilience, any softening of language from the Fed, has the potential to drive a market bounce, as we have seen in recent days.”

“Markets may be hoping now that the leadership transition is finalized, the focus will turn to the economy and mending the property sector,” said Marvin Chen, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, adding that property investment is still a weak spot for the economy. “Still, these may take time. We may not see much change to Covid policies in the near term.” The declines in Chinese shares contrasted with the upbeat mood elsewhere in Asia, buoyed by declines in US Treasury yields and Federal Reserve officials’ indications of a potential slowing of rate hikes. Markets were closed for holidays in Singapore, India, Malaysia, Thailand and New Zealand

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose, paring some of Friday’s losses and the greenback was steady or higher against all of its Group-of-10 peers.

  • The pound jumped and gilts led Treasuries and European bonds higher as investors bet that Rishi Sunak would bring more stability to the country’s financial markets. Initial moves were however tempered, and the pound inched lower, sliding back under 1.13 after earlier rallying by as much as 0.9% to $1.1409.
  • China’s offshore yuan led the decline in most emerging Asian currencies as traders assessed the impact of President Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power. Indonesia’s rupiah outperformed peers, supported by higher nickel prices. China’s onshore yuan weakened to a 14-year low while stocks headed for their biggest daily plunge in Hong Kong since the 2008 global financial crisis. Market setbacks following the reshuffle highlighted President Xi Jinping’s unquestioned grip over the ruling party and showed deep disappointment over a likely continuation of policies staked on Covid Zero and state- driven companies.
  • The euro retreated after earlier rising to more than a two-week high of $0.9899. Eurozone composite PMI fell to 47.1 in October; economists had expected 47.6
  • The yen fell by more than 1%, to trade above 149 per dollar, after earlier surging to as much as 145.56 after suspected interventions by Japanese authorities
  • Australian dollar declined against all of its G-10 peers after the Reserve Bank said it isn’t yet worried about the risk of imported inflation from a falling currency. Reports of fresh Covid restrictions in Guangzhou helped fuel a drop in China stocks and the yuan, pushing the Aussie even lower

In rates, Treasuries trade off best levels of the session, although intermediate and long-end yields remain richer by 5bp-6bp. Gilts lead a global bond market rally, with front-end yields down nearly 40bp after Rishi Sunak emerged as the frontrunner to become new UK Prime Minister.  10-year TSY yields trade around 4.15%, richer by ~7bp on the day, trailing gilts by 18bp, bunds by 4bp in the sector; US 2s10s is ~5bp flatter on the day while gilt curve steepens. Treasuries extended their late-Friday rally during Monday’s Asia session, adding to a move sparked by comments from Fed’s Daly, who said policy makers should start planning for a reduction in the size of interest-rate increases, and a WSJ article predicting they will debate the size of future hikes in November. According to Bloomberg, dollar issuance slate includes OKB $1b 3Y and Cades 3Y; $20b of new bond sales are expected this week as companies emerge from earnings blackout periods; banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. could all come to market soon.

Commodities were clipped as the USD rebounded and recessionary concerns mount (again); crude benchmarks are hampered on such factors, though similarly to US equity futures have recently eased off lows. Specifically, WTI and Brent benchmarks post downside of circa. USD 1.00/bbl compared to losses just shy of USD 2.00/bbl at worst. Both precious and base metals are broadly speaking under pressure; currently, Gold is impaired by circa. USD 10/oz and has been pushed back below the 10-DMA at USD 1650/oz. QatarEnergy head said the Co. is open to discussing working with Shell (SHEL LN) in all energy sectors, via Reuters.

Looking at today’s calendar, we get the US October PMIs, and September Chicago Fed national activity index, we also get PMI updates from Japan, UK, Germany, France and the Eurozone.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 3,792
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 398.32
  • MXAP down 1.1% to 134.36
  • MXAPJ down 2.0% to 431.12
  • Nikkei up 0.3% to 26,974.90
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,887.19
  • Hang Seng Index down 6.4% to 15,180.69
  • Shanghai Composite down 2.0% to 2,977.56
  • Sensex up 0.2% to 59,307.15
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.5% to 6,779.36
  • Kospi up 1.0% to 2,236.16
  • German 10Y yield down 0.2% at 2.41%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $0.9831
  • Brent Futures down 1.8% to $91.86/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.6% to $1,647.67
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.25% to 112.29

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • A sense of exasperation swept across Chinese markets as President Xi Jinping moved to stack his leadership ranks with loyalists, with stocks capping their worst day in Hong Kong since the 2008 global financial crisis and the yuan weakening to a 14-year low
  • The ECB is priming another hefty hike in interest rates this week as the attention increasingly switches to how high it will eventually push
  • Japan’s government will set out its expectation that the central bank watches the impact of moves in financial markets while emphasizing the two sides’ cooperation on policy, according to a draft of an upcoming stimulus plan obtained by Bloomberg
  • Most of Japan’s currency intervention, confirmed and suspected, took place outside of regular trading hours, with the exception of probable action Monday — unlike moves in 2010 and 2011 to weaken the yen. In contrast to that period, the government has only stated it intervened once, with the reluctance to do so seen as an additional tool to deter speculators
  • Much of continental Europe is poised for an unusually warm end to the month, with Paris seeing temperatures more common on a summer day than well into the heating season

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pacififc stocks traded mixed after the initial optimism from Wall Street on Friday began to fade. ASX 200 was boosted by its commodities sector as the rise in underlying metals supported mining names in the region. Nikkei 225 was also  firmer but lagged behind peers (ex-China) following the touted FX intervention on Friday and again on Monday. KOSPI was led by gains in its IT names, but the region felt some jitters following an exchange of fire between North and South Korea after a North Korean boat crossed the South Korean maritime border. Shanghai Comp. initially traded flat after Chinese President Xi secured an unprecedented third term as the party leader, as expected. Chinese President Xi also suggested China’s economy has high resilience and sufficient potential. The index also saw some brief upside after China released a myriad of delayed economic data, with Q3 GDP Y/Y topping forecasts and Trade Balance printing a larger surplus than expected, whilst exports also increased more than forecast, although these gains pared back. Hang Seng buckled as Xi’s leadership overhaul could prove to result in prolonged oversight and less autonomy for Hong Kong, with the Hang Seng Tech Index slumping over 5% and Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, Baidu and Meituan shedding as much as 7-10%.

Asia Data Recap

  • Chinese GDP (Q3) Y/Y 3.9% (Exp. 3.3%, Prev. 0.4%); Q/Q 3.9% (Exp. 3.5%, Prev. -2.6%)
  • Chinese Trade Balance (Sep) (USD) Y/Y 84.7bln (Exp. 80.3bln, Prev. 79.39B); Exports +5.7% (Exp. +4.0%, Prev. 7.1%), Imports +0.3% (Exp. 1.0%, Prev. 0.3%)
  • Chinese Retail Sales (Sep) Y/Y 2.5% (Exp. 3.0%, Prev. 5.4%); YTD Y/Y 0.7% (Exp. 0.9%, Prev. 0.5%)
  • Chinese Industrial Output (Sep) Y/Y 6.3% (Exp. 4.8%, Prev. 4.2%); YTD Y/Y 3.9% (Exp. 3.7%, Prev. 3.6%)
  • Chinese Fixed Investments (Jan-Sep) 5.9% (Exp. 6.0%)
  • Australian Composite PMI (Oct) 49.6 (Prev. 50.9); Services PMI (Oct) 49.0 (Prev. 50.6); Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 52.8 (Prev. 53.5)
  • Japanese Jibun Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 50.7 (Prev. 50.8); Services PMI (Oct) 53.0 (Prev. 52.2); Composite PMI (Oct) 51.7 (Prev. 51.0)

Top Asian News

  • China suspended in-person schooling and dining-in at restaurants in a district in Guangzhou, “stoking concerns about the potential for disruption in the southern Chinese manufacturing hub that’s home to about 19mln people”, Bloomberg reported.
  • PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos at a maintained rate 2.00% for a daily injection of CNY 8bln.
  • Japan’s Top Currency Diplomat Kanda will not comment on whether they intervened in FX markets and said there is no change in stance that “we are ready to take action 24/7” and will continue to take appropriate action, via Reuters. Japan’s Top Currency Diplomat Kanda offered no comments on intervention on Monday morning.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said no comment on FX intervention; currently trying to confront speculators; monitoring FX with a high sense of urgency.
  • USD/JPY drop on Monday likely due to intervention, according to market participants cited by Reuters.
  • Japanese government urges the BoJ to remain vigilant to the impact of sharp market moves, according to a draft document cited by Reuters.
  • The Japanese government and the BoJ decided to intervene in FX on Friday by buying the Yen and selling the Dollar, according to Nikkei sources citing sources.
  • Japan’s FX intervention on October 21st is estimated at JPY 5.4-5.5tln, according to market sources and calculations cited by Reuters.
  • BoJ Governor Kuroda said CPI growth beyond next FY likely to fall below 2%, will continue to put all effort into achieving price target along with rise in wages.
  • Japanese gov’t expects the BoJ to watch the impact of market moves, via Bloomberg citing a document; to collaborate closely with the BoJ on the policy mix; Finance Minister will not comment on FX intervention.
  • Japan is to ease rules in relation to brokerages offering investment advice, according to reports citing Nikkei.
  • Japanese Economy Minister Yamagiwa is planning to step down, according to NHK.
  • South Korea is to expand its corporate-bond buying program, according to the finance minister cited by Reuters.
  • RBA’s Kent reiterated the Board expects to increase interest rates further in the period ahead; size and timing of rate increases in Australia will depend on incoming data.

European bourses are mixed, though are well off lows, as initial strength faded following the open amid renewed USD strength and as PMIs flash ongoing recessionary/inflationary concerns. Sectors are a touch mixed amid the above action, Energy remains the standout laggard amid the complex’s broader price action. US futures have managed to make their way back to being essentially unchanged on the session, as the initial bout of underperformance eases as US participants enter the fray pre-PMIs.

Top European News

  • UK’s Boris Johnson has pulled out of the Conservative Party leadership contest, according to The Times’ Swinford. UK’s Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak failed to strike a deal in talks on Saturday, according to the Times.
  • UK leadership candidate Rishi Sunak so far received support from 147 MPs vs 24 for Penny Mordaunt. The deadline to reach the 100 threshold is at 14:00BST/09:00EDT on Monday.
  • UK leadership candidate Penny Mordaunt will stay in the race as she reportedly sees a route to 100 nominations now Boris Johnson is out, according to sources cited by Bloomberg’s Wickham.
  • UK Chancellor Hunt backs Rishi Sunak for PM, via The Telegraph.
  • UK Chancellor Hunt is said to be mulling up to GBP 20bln of tax rises in the October 31st budget, according to The Telegraph. The October 31st fiscal statement could be delayed after PM Truss’ resignation, according to the FT.
  • UK Chancellor Hunt is expected to extend the current freeze in income tax and allowances into the next parliament, according to FT citing sources.
  • BoE’s Mann said bond purchases for financial stability were targeted and temporary, and the start of bond selling on Nov 1st shows the BoE does not feel like its hands are tied. Mann said it is the BoE’s job to address financial stability risks.
  • Moody’s affirmed UK’s rating at Aa3; revised outlook to “Negative” from “Stable.

FX

  • Dollar regroups after Friday’s reversal on less hawkish Fed dynamic and reports of Japanese intervention, DXY above 112.500 at best vs 111.760 low.
  • Sterling underpinned ahead of deadline in race to be next UK PM with Sunak hot favourite to succeed, Cable holding within 1.1400-1.1300 range.
  • Yen reverses from peaks as official buying momentum wanes, USD/JPY up to 149.70 from sub-145.50 at one stage.
  • Aussie underperforms ahead of Budget that is expected to see growth forecast downgraded, AUD/USD under 0.6300 and Kiwi down in sympathy on NZ Labour Day as NZD/USD declines through 0.5700.
  • Offshore Yuan below 7.3000 vs Buck as China tightens COVID restrictions in key southern manufacturing hub.
  • Euro fades from a fraction below 0.9900 towards 0.9800 after broadly weak PMIs and amidst heavy option expiry interest.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1230 vs exp. 7.1173 (prev. 7.1186); weakest fix since June 1st 2020.

Commodities

  • Commodities clipped as the USD regains poise and recessionary concerns mount; crude benchmarks are hampered on such factors, though similarly to US equity futures have recently eased off lows.
  • Specifically, WTI and Brent benchmarks post downside of circa. USD 1.00/bbl compared to losses just shy of USD 2.00/bbl at worst.
  • Both precious and base metals are broadly speaking under pressure; currently, Gold is impaired by circa. USD 10/oz and has been pushed back below the 10-DMA at USD 1650/oz.
  • QatarEnergy head said the Co. is open to discussing working with Shell (SHEL LN) in all energy sectors, via Reuters.
  • China sold 100% of wheat offered at auction of state reserves on Oct 19th, according to Reuters citing the traded centre; sold at an average price of CNY 2,829/t.

CCP National Congress

  • Chinese President Xi secured an unprecedented third term as Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader, as expected.
  • The CCP amended its constitution to include “two establishes” and “two safeguards” to “cement” Xi Jinping’s status as the core of the party, according to Reuters.
  • Chinese President Xi is to head the communist party’s central commission for discipline inspection, according to state media.
  • The new CCP Politburo Standing Committee includes Li Qang, Li Xi, Ding Xuexiang, Cai Qi, Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, according to state media. The new Central Committee (comprising of 171 alternate members) does not include Liu He, Han Zheng, Sun Chunlan, Yi Gang, Guo Shuoing,
  • Chinese President Xi said China’s economy has high resilience, sufficient potential and has room for manoeuvre. Xi said China will open its doors even wider. Xi said China must ensure the CCP continues to be the backbone people can lean on, according to state media.

Geopolitics

  • Russian Defence Minister held phone calls with the US Pentagon Chief, UK Defence Minister, and the French Armed Forces Minister, according to Interfax and Reuters.
  • French Armed Forces Minister has confirmed Russian Defence Minister told him Russia fears that Ukraine may use a “dirty bomb” on Russian territory. Russia’s Shoigu warns of ‘uncontrolled escalation’ in Ukraine conflict, via Reuters.
  • Ukraine’s Foreign Minister spoke with US Defence Secretary Blinken and said they both agreed the Russian rhetoric on “dirty bombs” is aimed at creating a pretext for a false flag operation. They also discussed further practical steps to boost Ukraine’s air defense.
  • Russian forces continued to target Ukraine’s energy and military infrastructure over the weekend, according to the Russia Defence Ministry cited by Interfax.
  • Russian authorities said two pilots died in a military plane crash into a residential building in Irkutsk, Russia, according to Interfax.
  • Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said Russia completely reject any demilitarized zones in the vicinity of the Zaporozhye station, Via Al Jazeera.
  • Russia continues to use Iranian uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) against targets throughout Ukraine, according to the UK Ministry of Defence.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: Sept. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.10, prior 0
  • 09:45: Oct. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 51.0, prior 52.0
  • 09:45: Oct. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 49.2, prior 49.5
  • 09:45: Oct. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 49.5, prior 49.3

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from the middle of a forest in Center Parcs. We’ve had a biblical amount of rain, flash flooding in the resort and a weekend of over excitable children. We’re off to a safari park today where monkeys jump on your car. Only 24 hours before I can escape on a plane to New York.

As we start a new week where we’re now in the Fed blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC, we’re perhaps starting the 6th attempt this year at the Fed pivot trade. This only started on Friday as well-connected Nick Timiraos (WSJ) suggested that while a 75bps hike at the Fed’s next meeting was set to go ahead, officials were also likely to discuss “whether and how to signal plans to approve a smaller increase in December.” Whether this gets any further than the previous failed attempts to reprice markets only time will tell but with markets pricing in a terminal rate of over 5% prior to this, at least this is the first one that starts from anything vaguely resembling a realistic starting point given where inflation is. San Fran Fed President Daly also said on Friday that the Fed should start planning for a shift down in the pace of hikes but added that they are not there yet.

The news helped price -8.0bps less Fed tightening by year-end on Friday, whilst also triggering a significant one-day decline in the 2yr Treasury yield of -13.8bps (-16bps post Timiraos). In turn the S&P 500 completed its strongest weekly performance since June, advancing +4.74% (+2.37% Friday). Futures are +0.3% this morning. The longer end rallied 12bps off the highs but was only -1.2bps on Friday as the same article discussed how the Fed could also signal a higher dot plot for 2023. Net net this left the biggest curve steepening since the pandemic (-12.2bps) which given that its not a huge move shows how massively flatter the curve has been since then. This morning in Asia 2 and 10yr yields are -4.3bps and -6.7bps lower respectively and this continuing the momentum from Friday.

In the cold light of day (and it’s cold and dark in the forests of Center Parcs this morning), these more dovish stories are all plausible but between next week’s FOMC and the December equivalent we have CPI and NFP twice. So plenty of cold or hot water to flow under the bridge before then. On balance there are few signs at the moment that core inflation is about to see a rapid about turn and the Fed will be data dependent so it’ll be impossible to have high conviction on what they do next without a strong view on the data.

Before we examine the week ahead we should note that overall the 10yr yield ended last week up by +19.8bps (-1.2bps Friday), which marked its 12th consecutive weekly rise, and is also its longest run since 1984 when Paul Volcker was Fed Chair. So we need to put things into some perspective.

In light of all this maybe the most interesting data this week comes on Friday with the Q3 employment cost index (DB at +1.1% vs. +1.3% last month) and the September personal income (+0.1% vs. +0.3%) and consumption (+0.3% vs. +0.4%) report, including the core PCE deflator (+0.58% vs. +0.56%). With respect to core PCE, our economists expect the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation to rise by 40bps to 5.3%. Our economists highlight that as the median forecast for 2022 core PCE inflation in the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections from the September 21st meeting was 4.5%, it’s going to be tough to signal a downshift in December.

Elsewhere this week the main highlights are the ECB (Thursday) and the BoJ (Friday) decisions and a huge round of earnings with big Tech the highlight. We’ll also have a new UK Prime Minister by Friday with a possibility we may have one after today’s ultra compressed rounds of Parliamentary votes. After Boris Johnson pulled out late last night it is possible that only tactical voting will stop ex-Chancellor Sunak being declared PM tonight. We’ll also see US Q3 GDP (Thursday) and flash PMIs in the US and Europe (today) and October CPIs and GDP for many European countries (Friday). There are other data which are in the day by day guide at the end as usual for a Monday but let’s take a brief look at the highlights outside the already discussed PCE. The ECB’s decision on Thursday will be a big event with our European economists expecting another +75bps hike (72.3bp priced in), followed by +75bps in December (c.62bps priced in), +50bps in February (c.38bps priced), and +25bps in March, reaching a terminal rate of 3%. The press conference as ever will be a focal point and there’ll be lots of attention on technical things surrounding TLTROs and excess reserves. For more on the options here see our fixed income strategists blog from Friday here.

Staying with central banks, over in Japan, the BoJ announces its decision on Friday amidst continued downward pressure on the yen, which hit a 32-year low against the dollar of 151.95 on Friday before surging again to end the week at 147.65 – c.3.5% swing while the Japanese slept after Nikkei reported fresh intervention from the Japanese authorities. The Yen has again seen a wild session in Asia. After falling again to 149.67 it surged to 145.65 and now trades at 148.88 as we go to press with no clarity on if and what intervention has been done.

For US Q3 GDP this week, our US economists expect real growth to rebound to +3.0% from Q2’s -0.6%. Q3 GDP figures will also be out for European countries on Friday, including for Germany and France with the former likely to be slightly negative and the latter slightly positive. Overall it’s likely to be the start of growth grinding towards or below zero and then staying negative for a few quarters. On European CPI on Friday remember September readings saw Germany’s CPI reaching 10% for the first time since 1950.

Earnings will come thick and fast this week, featuring the big tech, oil majors and key automakers and staples. In tech alone we have Microsoft, Alphabet (tomorrow), Meta (Wednesday) and Apple and Amazon (Thursday). A huge slug (20% by market cap) of the S&P 500 in 48 hours. Other notable tech firms reporting results will include Intel, Twitter, SAP and Samsung. The other main reporters are in the day by day week ahead at the end.

Asian markets are higher outside of China/HK this morning with the Nikkei (+0.62%) and the KOSPI (+0.87%) up but with the Hang Seng (-4.99%) and the Shanghai composite (-0.89%) lower as markets worry about the policy direction of travel after the ending of the 20th Party Congress. We’ve also finally seen the monthly data dump out of China and despite a beat on Q3 GDP (+3.9% vs +3.3% expected) and industrial production (+6.3% vs 4.8%), we saw weaker retail sales (+2.5% vs +3.0%) and jobless rate (5.5% vs 5.2%).

Looking back to last week, we’ve already discussed the US rates and equities pricing at the top. Over in Europe, gilts outperformed other sovereign bonds over the week as a whole thanks to the government’s Monday U-turn on the mini-budget. However, they became a major underperformer again on Friday as investors contemplated the likelihood that former Prime Minister Johnson could return to office. All-in-all that left 10yr yields down -28.2bps over the week (+14.1bps Friday), and after the close we heard that Moody’s had affirmed the UK’s credit rating but cut the outlook to negative. Elsewhere in Europe though there was a similar pattern to Treasuries, with 10yr bund yields also rising for a 12th week in a row with a +7.0bps gain over the week (+1.4bps Friday). At the same time, the STOXX 600 put in its best week since July, with a +1.27% advance (-0.62% Friday).

Finally last week, European natural gas futures fell -20.02% (-10.67% Friday) to €114 per megawatt-hour after EU leaders endorsed a plan to cap gas prices.

AND NOW NEWSQUAWK

US equity futures have recovered to near unchanged, USD remains bid, PMIs ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open

Newsquawk Logo

MONDAY, OCT 24, 2022 – 06:44 AM

  • Equities are firmer in Europe and back to flat for US futures, as mixed APAC trade and PMI pressure eases a touch
  • USD has regrouped from Friday’s dovish-downside though GBP outperforms while JPY has eased from best following pronounced APAC action
  • Bonds back off after early EU buying frenzy; with Gilts leading the way as the prospect of Sunak becoming the UK PM increases significantly
  • Commodities clipped, but off worst, as the USD regains poise and recessionary concerns mount alongside further China COVID crackdowns
  • EZ/UK PMIs were predominantly below expectation and flagged renewed recession concerns
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMI and the UK Conservative Party leadership election

As of 11:10BST/06:10ET

View the full premarket movers and news report. 

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

LOOKING AHEAD

  • US Flash PMIs, UK Conservative Party Leadership Election
  • Click here for the Week Ahead preview.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are mixed, though are well off lows, as initial strength faded following the open amid renewed USD strength and as PMIs flash ongoing recessionary/inflationary concerns.
  • Sectors are a touch mixed amid the above action, Energy remains the standout laggard amid the complex’s broader price action.
  • US futures have managed to make their way back to being essentially unchanged on the session, as the initial bout of underperformance eases as US participants enter the fray pre-PMIs.
  • Click here for more detail.

FX

  • Dollar regroups after Friday’s reversal on less hawkish Fed dynamic and reports of Japanese intervention, DXY above 112.500 at best vs 111.760 low.
  • Sterling underpinned ahead of deadline in race to be next UK PM with Sunak hot favourite to succeed, Cable holding within 1.1400-1.1300 range.
  • Yen reverses from peaks as official buying momentum wanes, USD/JPY up to 149.70 from sub-145.50 at one stage.
  • Aussie underperforms ahead of Budget that is expected to see growth forecast downgraded, AUD/USD under 0.6300 and Kiwi down in sympathy on NZ Labour Day as NZD/USD declines through 0.5700.
  • Offshore Yuan below 7.3000 vs Buck as China tightens COVID restrictions in key southern manufacturing hub.
  • Euro fades from a fraction below 0.9900 towards 0.9800 after broadly weak PMIs and amidst heavy option expiry interest.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1230 vs exp. 7.1173 (prev. 7.1186); weakest fix since June 1st 2020.
  • Click here for more detail.

Notable FX Expiries, NY Cut:

  • EUR/USD: 0.9550 (1.3BN), 0.9600 (1.1BN), 0.9740-50 (1.6BN), 0.9800 (1.5BN), 0.9815-20 (993M), 0.9840-50 (2.0BN), 0.9875 (1.3BN), 0.9900-05 (771M)
  • USD/JPY: 147.35-45 (745M), 150.00 (2.0BN)
  • Click here for more detail.

FIXED INCOME

  • Bonds back off after early EU buying frenzy; with Gilts leading the way as the prospect of Sunak becoming the UK PM increases significantly.
  • Bunds reverse ahead of technical resistance around 136.78 to 135.23, Gilts not far from 100.00 to 98.15 and T-note from 110-15 to 109-25 amidst block sales in 5 and 10 year futures.
  • Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

  • Commodities clipped as the USD regains poise and recessionary concerns mount; crude benchmarks are hampered on such factors, though similarly to US equity futures have recently eased off lows.
  • Specifically, WTI and Brent benchmarks post downside of circa. USD 1.00/bbl compared to losses just shy of USD 2.00/bbl at worst.
  • Both precious and base metals are broadly speaking under pressure; currently, Gold is impaired by circa. USD 10/oz and has been pushed back below the 10-DMA at USD 1650/oz.
  • QatarEnergy head said the Co. is open to discussing working with Shell (SHEL LN) in all energy sectors, via Reuters.
  • China sold 100% of wheat offered at auction of state reserves on Oct 19th, according to Reuters citing the traded centre; sold at an average price of CNY 2,829/t.
  • Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • UK’s Boris Johnson has pulled out of the Conservative Party leadership contest, according to The Times’ Swinford. UK’s Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak failed to strike a deal in talks on Saturday, according to the Times.
  • UK leadership candidate Rishi Sunak so far received support from 147 MPs vs 24 for Penny Mordaunt. The deadline to reach the 100 threshold is at 14:00BST/09:00EDT on Monday.
  • UK leadership candidate Penny Mordaunt will stay in the race as she reportedly sees a route to 100 nominations now Boris Johnson is out, according to sources cited by Bloomberg’s Wickham.
  • UK Chancellor Hunt backs Rishi Sunak for PM, via The Telegraph.
  • UK Chancellor Hunt is said to be mulling up to GBP 20bln of tax rises in the October 31st budget, according to The Telegraph. The October 31st fiscal statement could be delayed after PM Truss’ resignation, according to the FT.
  • UK Chancellor Hunt is expected to extend the current freeze in income tax and allowances into the next parliament, according to FT citing sources.
  • BoE’s Mann said bond purchases for financial stability were targeted and temporary, and the start of bond selling on Nov 1st shows the BoE does not feel like its hands are tied. Mann said it is the BoE’s job to address financial stability risks.
  • Moody’s affirmed UK’s rating at Aa3; revised outlook to “Negative” from “Stable.
  • S&P affirms Greece at BB+/B; outlook stable.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

  • EU S&P Global Composite Flash PMI (Oct) 47.1 vs. Exp. 47.5 (Prev. 48.1); Manufacturing Flash PMI (Oct) 46.6 vs. Exp. 47.8 (Prev. 48.4); Services Flash PMI (Oct) 48.2 vs. Exp. 48.2 (Prev. 48.8)
  • UK Flash Composite PMI (Oct) 47.2 vs. Exp. 48.2 (Prev. 49.1); Services PMI (Oct) 47.5 vs. Exp. 49.0 (Prev. 50.0); Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 45.8 vs. Exp. 48.0 (Prev. 48.4)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • Fed’s Evans (departing) said we will need to raise rates further and hold stance there for a while, exact stance of policy will depend on the outlook and risks, via Reuters.
  • White House Economy Advisor Deese said the US is strong enough to avoid recession.
  • Elon Musk’s Twitter (TWTR) takeover debt to be held by banks due to turbulent markets; banks may sell some of the USD 13bln of Twitter debt around year-end, according to WSJ sources. Elon Musk-Twitter (TWTR) deal ‘still on track’ despite national security report, according to NY post citing sources.
  • Tesla (TSLA) cut Model 3 and Model Y prices in China; Model 3 cut from CNY 279.9k to CNY 265.9k, Model Y cut from CNY 316.9k to CNY 288.9k, via Reuters.
  • US President Biden does not support a permanent repeal of the debt limit, via Reuters.

CRYPTO

  • Bitcoin is firmer on the session but has slipped towards the lower-end of a USD 400 range, which in itself is holding a similar magnitude above the USD 19k mark.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

  • Russian Defence Minister held phone calls with the US Pentagon Chief, UK Defence Minister, and the French Armed Forces Minister, according to Interfax and Reuters.
  • French Armed Forces Minister has confirmed Russian Defence Minister told him Russia fears that Ukraine may use a “dirty bomb” on Russian territory. Russia’s Shoigu warns of ‘uncontrolled escalation’ in Ukraine conflict, via Reuters.
  • Ukraine’s Foreign Minister spoke with US Defence Secretary Blinken and said they both agreed the Russian rhetoric on “dirty bombs” is aimed at creating a pretext for a false flag operation. They also discussed further practical steps to boost Ukraine’s air defense.
  • Russian forces continued to target Ukraine’s energy and military infrastructure over the weekend, according to the Russia Defence Ministry cited by Interfax.
  • Russian authorities said two pilots died in a military plane crash into a residential building in Irkutsk, Russia, according to Interfax.
  • Russian Deputy Foreign Minister said Russia completely reject any demilitarized zones in the vicinity of the Zaporozhye station, Via Al Jazeera.
  • Russia continues to use Iranian uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) against targets throughout Ukraine, according to the UK Ministry of Defence.

OTHER

  • South Korea fired warning shots after North Korean boat crossed the maritime border, according to South Korean Military. North Korea said it fired multiple rocket launchers in response to the warning shot from South Korea, according to KCNA. South Korean military has strengthened its readiness posture in case of contingency while tracking and monitoring related movements of the North Korean military in close cooperation between the ROK and the US, according to Yonhap.
  • Iran’s atomic energy organization said e-mail servers were hacked, according to state media.
  • Nasdaq has quietly halted listings of small-cap Chinese companies as approvals were being subjected to additional reviews, according to WSJ.
  • USTR Tai will speak on US-China relations at an event on Wednesday.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

  • APAC stocks traded mixed after the initial optimism from Wall Street on Friday began to fade.
  • ASX 200 was boosted by its commodities sector as the rise in underlying metals supported mining names in the region.
  • Nikkei 225 was also firmer but lagged behind peers (ex-China) following the touted FX intervention on Friday and again on Monday.
  • KOSPI was led by gains in its IT names, but the region felt some jitters following an exchange of fire between North and South Korea after a North Korean boat crossed the South Korean maritime border.
  • Shanghai Comp. initially traded flat after Chinese President Xi secured an unprecedented third term as the party leader, as expected. Chinese President Xi also suggested China’s economy has high resilience and sufficient potential. The index also saw some brief upside after China released a myriad of delayed economic data, with Q3 GDP Y/Y topping forecasts and Trade Balance printing a larger surplus than expected, whilst exports also increased more than forecast, although these gains pared back.
  • Hang Seng buckled as Xi’s leadership overhaul could prove to result in prolonged oversight and less autonomy for Hong Kong, with the Hang Seng Tech Index slumping over 5% and Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, Baidu and Meituan shedding as much as 7-10%.

NOTABLE APAC HEADLINES

  • China suspended in-person schooling and dining-in at restaurants in a district in Guangzhou, “stoking concerns about the potential for disruption in the southern Chinese manufacturing hub that’s home to about 19mln people”, Bloomberg reported.
  • PBoC injected CNY 10bln via 7-day reverse repos at a maintained rate 2.00% for a daily injection of CNY 8bln.
  • Japan’s Top Currency Diplomat Kanda will not comment on whether they intervened in FX markets and said there is no change in stance that “we are ready to take action 24/7” and will continue to take appropriate action, via Reuters. Japan’s Top Currency Diplomat Kanda offered no comments on intervention on Monday morning.
  • Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said no comment on FX intervention; currently trying to confront speculators; monitoring FX with a high sense of urgency.
  • USD/JPY drop on Monday likely due to intervention, according to market participants cited by Reuters.
  • Japanese government urges the BoJ to remain vigilant to the impact of sharp market moves, according to a draft document cited by Reuters.
  • The Japanese government and the BoJ decided to intervene in FX on Friday by buying the Yen and selling the Dollar, according to Nikkei sources citing sources.
  • Japan’s FX intervention on October 21st is estimated at JPY 5.4-5.5tln, according to market sources and calculations cited by Reuters.
  • BoJ Governor Kuroda said CPI growth beyond next FY likely to fall below 2%, will continue to put all effort into achieving price target along with rise in wages.
  • Japanese gov’t expects the BoJ to watch the impact of market moves, via Bloomberg citing a document; to collaborate closely with the BoJ on the policy mix; Finance Minister will not comment on FX intervention.
  • Japan is to ease rules in relation to brokerages offering investment advice, according to reports citing Nikkei.
  • Japanese Economy Minister Yamagiwa is planning to step down, according to NHK.
  • South Korea is to expand its corporate-bond buying program, according to the finance minister cited by Reuters.
  • RBA’s Kent reiterated the Board expects to increase interest rates further in the period ahead; size and timing of rate increases in Australia will depend on incoming data.

CCP NATIONAL CONGRESS

  • Chinese President Xi secured an unprecedented third term as Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader, as expected.
  • The CCP amended its constitution to include “two establishes” and “two safeguards” to “cement” Xi Jinping’s status as the core of the party, according to Reuters.
  • Chinese President Xi is to head the communist party’s central commission for discipline inspection, according to state media.
  • The new CCP Politburo Standing Committee includes Li Qang, Li Xi, Ding Xuexiang, Cai Qi, Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, according to state media. The new Central Committee (comprising of 171 alternate members) does not include Liu He, Han Zheng, Sun Chunlan, Yi Gang, Guo Shuoing,
  • Chinese President Xi said China’s economy has high resilience, sufficient potential and has room for manoeuvre. Xi said China will open its doors even wider. Xi said China must ensure the CCP continues to be the backbone people can lean on, according to state media.

DATA RECAP

  • Chinese GDP (Q3) Y/Y 3.9% (Exp. 3.3%, Prev. 0.4%); Q/Q 3.9% (Exp. 3.5%, Prev. -2.6%)
  • Chinese Trade Balance (Sep) (USD) Y/Y 84.7bln (Exp. 80.3bln, Prev. 79.39B); Exports +5.7% (Exp. +4.0%, Prev. 7.1%), Imports +0.3% (Exp. 1.0%, Prev. 0.3%)
  • Chinese Retail Sales (Sep) Y/Y 2.5% (Exp. 3.0%, Prev. 5.4%); YTD Y/Y 0.7% (Exp. 0.9%, Prev. 0.5%)
  • Chinese Industrial Output (Sep) Y/Y 6.3% (Exp. 4.8%, Prev. 4.2%); YTD Y/Y 3.9% (Exp. 3.7%, Prev. 3.6%)
  • Chinese Fixed Investments (Jan-Sep) 5.9% (Exp. 6.0%)
  • Australian Composite PMI (Oct) 49.6 (Prev. 50.9); Services PMI (Oct) 49.0 (Prev. 50.6); Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 52.8 (Prev. 53.5)
  • Japanese Jibun Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 50.7 (Prev. 50.8); Services PMI (Oct) 53.0 (Prev. 52.2); Composite PMI (Oct) 51.7 (Prev. 51.0)

i)FRIDAY MORNING// THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 61.37 PTS OR 2.03%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 1,030.43 OR 6.36%    /The Nikkei closed UP 84.32PTS OR 0.31%          //Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.54%   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7.2626 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN 7.3184//    /Oil DOWN TO 84,08 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 92.69    / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.        ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 a./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

end

2B JAPAN

Looks like Japan just blew $50 billion for nothing.

(zerohedge0

Did The BoJ Just Blow $50 Billion For Nothing…

MONDAY, OCT 24, 2022 – 08:45 AM

Sunday night’s FX market open saw another ‘interventionesque‘ surge in the yen relative to the dollar as Friday’s 6 handle surge and purge rebounded.

However, 12 hours later this latest attempt to manipulate markets has already been erased.

That was Strike 4 and 5 for the Bank of Japan’s efforts to save its ailing currency.

As a reminder Strike 1 was on September 22…

Strike 2 was just last week…

That is strike 3 for yentervention.

The choices before Japanese policy makers are stark:

  1. either relax the yield-curve control framework;
  2. or be willing to let the yen  weaken.

while there clearly have been interventions, their half-lives are measured in hours if not minutes.

Indeed, as Bloomberg’s Ven Ram notes:

“there is no third choice really at a time when inflationary pressures in the US are likely to compel the Fed to keep going and causing inflation-adjusted yield differentials to move in favor of the dollar against the yen. “

And as Bloomberg reports this morning, the costs of these efforts are starting to add up.

The size of the suspected market action is estimated to be as much as 5.5 trillion yen ($36.8 billion), according to a basic calculation using the BOJ’s forecast for the change in its current account and the Central Tanshi projection for the balance assuming no intervention.

Add to that the likely magnitude of last night’s Strike 5 intervention and one could easily argue The Bank of Japan has puke $50 billion in these attempts… and what have they achieved – a 3 handle increase in Yen relative to the dollar….

Nobuyasu Atago, chief economist at Ichiyoshi Securities and a former BOJ official, said his impression was the government spent more than 4 trillion yen on late Friday to support the yen and about 2 trillion yen this morning again to boost the yen.

“We have a system in place to monitor the market 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, truly 24/7, any time, any place and to carry out the necessary response,” against speculative trading, Masato Kanda, the top currency finance ministry official told reporters Monday.

“High volatility creates a serious problem for the Japanese economy, companies and households.”

Since the first intervention in September, things have not gone well.

Wasn’t it Einstein that said the definition of insanity is trying the same thing again and expecting a different outcome?

It appears Japanese policymakers have confirmed what many market participants have long believed about their extreme actions…

end

3c CHINA

CHINA/

After Xi’s crowning for the 3rd term, China surprises the world with fake GDP growth.  The yuan slides big time

(zerohedge)

After Xi’s ‘Crowning’, China ‘Surprises’ World With GDP Growth Beat; Yuan Slides

SUNDAY, OCT 23, 2022 – 10:30 PM

Having delayed the avalanche of macro data just ahead of the Party Congress (with no explanation), and having now ‘crowned’ Xi to his third term, it appears China is more than willing to share what data it decides the rest of the world needs to know now.

With just two minutes notice, China dumped everything from import/export data to GDP to unemployment at 2130ET… and it will likely surprise no one at all that the data was significantly better than expected (well you can’t start a third term on a down note can you?).

Chinese GDP grew 3.9% in Q3 – significantly better than the +3.3% expected – and far better than the +0.4% recorded in Q2.

Chinese Industrial Production also beat expectations in September (+6.3% YoY vs +4.8% exp)

However, Chinese Retail Sales disappointed in September (+2.5% YoY vs +3.0% YoY exp), as did Fixed Asset Investment (+5.9% YoU vs +6.0% exp) as Property Investment continued to plunge (-8.0% YoY).

Finally, the Surveyed Jobless Rate rose to 54.5% in September (youth unemployment ticked lower in the month, which is interesting given the increase in broader unemployment. Perhaps there are seasonal issues at play such as the new academic year).

And all of this in the face of major rolling lockdowns as Zero-COVID policies remain in place.

Additionally, in dollar terms, China imports and exports were better than expected:

  • China Sept. Exports Rise 5.7% Y/Y in Dollar Terms; Est. 4.0%
  • China Sept. Imports Rise 0.3% Y/Y in Dollar Terms; Est. 0.0%

Meanwhile real estate blues persist. New-home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, dropped 0.28% last month from August as September residential property sales tumbled 15.3% YoY.

Offshore Yuan is falling on the news, despite yet another strong RMB Fix…

The data (and the Yuan slide) comes after significant changes at the top in China, which were not necessarily good for those hoping for a market-friendly government that’s keen on opening to the world.

end

Chinese stocks crash as Xi tightens grip on power\

(zerohedge)

China Stocks Crash As Xi Tightens Grip On Power

MONDAY, OCT 24, 2022 – 10:01 AM

Shares in Chinese companies crashed Monday morning as traders were spooked by the consolidation of power by President Xi Jinping. After a weeklong Party Congress, Xi was confirmed for a third presidential term on Saturday.

Traders fear more stringent regulations on technology companies pushing these stocks very deep into the red. The Hang Seng Index plunged to a 13-year low, dropping more than 1,000 points before closing around 15,180. The index saw a 6.4% drop, the most significant one-day drop since 2008. 

The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped as much as 9%. The index is down more than 74% since peaking in 1Q21.

The offshore yen resumed its decline, tumbling by 1.3% – the biggest one-day slide since August 2019, to a record of 7.31. 

China tech companies such as Alibaba and Tencent plummeted more than 11% in Asia. Internet search company Baidu closed down 12% while Meituan plunged 14%. BABA shares listed in the US are down more than 11%, trading at 2016 lows. 

Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index slumped 12%. 

Downward press in Chinese stocks comes at the end of the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress, which has solidified Xi’s third term, surpassing the historical precedent of a two-term limit and is now the longest leader since Mao Zedong. This has undoubtedly alarmed investors with more political uncertainty and regulatory headwinds. 

“While Chinese politics have long been opaque, this sharp consolidation of power is adding to investor unease. Equity valuations, already near a 10-year trough, will likely face more pressure if international investors demand a higher risk premium,” Mark Haefele, CIO at UBS Global Wealth Management, said. 

Xi’s consolidation of power also suggests an end to zero-Covid restrictions seemed less likely, while the latest economic data shows a weak recovery. 

“Now that the new Politburo standing committee is packed with Xi’s own picks and those in rival factions … were all out, it becomes clear that no other political elite dares to challenge his policy mistakes or even deviate however slightly from his preferred policy agenda, which of course over the past few years has focused on favoring the state sector at the expense of the private one,” Xin Sun, senior lecturer in Chinese and East Asian business, at King’s College London, told CNBC via email. 

Marvin Chen, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said after the leadership transition is finalized, traders will “focus on the economy and mending the property sector.” He said the property market is a fragile sector of the economy, adding, “still, these may take time. We may not see much change to Covid policies in the near term.” 

The selloff in Chinese stocks is appealing to some investors though they said an inflection point of when to buy is still unknown. This was explained by Xiadong Bao, fund manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management in Paris: 

“A lot of bad news have been baked in and the market correction is clearly overshooting, but we’re still looking for an inflection point which is unclear for now.” 

Besides leadership fears and a souring economic outlook, traders avoid Chinese stocks. One reason is because of the Biden administration’s economic war on Beijing. Then the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary tightening made emerging market equities unappealing. 

“Foreigners are selling out of tech now,” said Hao Hong, partner and chief economist at Grow Investment Group. “Right now, except the historical precedents and cheap valuation, there is nothing working for Chinese tech.”

So with China stocks set for the most significant drop since the global financial crisis — traders and asset managers continue to shun these stocks as there are too many overhangs and not enough positive upside catalysts in the near term. 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK AFFAIRS

UK

Energy costs (crisis) could drag almost 26 million souls into fuel poverty

(OilPrice.com)

“Frankly Terrifying”: Energy Crisis Could Drag 26M Brits Into Fuel Poverty

SUNDAY, OCT 23, 2022 – 09:20 AM

Via OilPrice.com,

The axing of the energy price guarantee from April next year could lead to almost 11m UK households falling into fuel poverty, campaigners have warned, which is about 26m people.

It means more than one in three British households face the grim prospect of hardship: there are an estimated 28.1m households in the UK. The average household in Britain has 2.36 people.

The End Fuel Poverty Coalition described the outlook as “frankly terrifying” and urged the Government to focus on a new package of support and energy market reforms, alongside investment in home insulation and renewables.

The predicted increase from the current seven million households in fuel poverty to 10.7 million after the Government lifts its guarantee limiting the average household energy bill to £2,500 from April will then fall slightly – but will still leave 10.1 million households in fuel poverty in the winter of 2023/24, the group said.

Protest in London

The figures come as protesters gather in London to ask MPs to back plans for a universal basic energy allowance to meet heating, cooking and lighting needs, part of the ‘Energy For All’ petition which will be handed to Downing Street on Wednesday with more than 600,000 signatures.

The Warm This Winter campaign called for the immediate suspension of all forced transfers of households onto more expensive pre-payment meters, whether by court warrant or remotely via smart meters.

Ruth London, from Fuel Poverty Action, said: “The outlook is frankly terrifying. It is now all the more essential – and more possible – to win a totally new pricing framework like Energy For All. Finally there is now support for this inside Parliament.”

Simon Francis, co-ordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said:

“The Government may have brought some stability to the markets, but it has come at the cost of huge instability in households’ finances.

“The new Chancellor must work quickly, and with consumer groups and charities, to design a new package of support and energy market reforms that will help those in fuel poverty now and post-April.

“But while the political focus on energy bills may now have shifted to next April, millions of the most vulnerable will be living in cold and damp homes this winter and will need further financial and non-financial support.”

Firms urged to prepay customers

Meanwhile, consumer site MoneySavingExpert (MSE) urged some of the biggest energy firms to allow prepay customers with smart meters to use their £400 Government support payment on both electricity and gas, to ensure they can maintain heating this winter.

Prepayment customers with traditional meters can decide where best to use the payments, which come in six monthly instalments between now and March 2023, as they are sent as a voucher they can use to top up their electricity or gas meter. However for those with smart meters, the payment is usually applied to their electricity meter by default, so they have less choice.

Gary Caffell, head of energy at MSE, said: “We appreciate that suppliers have acted fast to deliver the first of these crucial support payments.

“But combined with the wider cost of living crisis – affecting all other areas of people’s finances – not allowing customers flexibility to transfer some or all of these payments to gas meters puts these people, many of whom are vulnerable, at a much higher risk of reaching a crisis point in the coming months.

“Some may simply not be able to afford to heat their homes.”

end

ECB/EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANKS

This is a must read.

Bolen explains why European central banks will suffer steep losses as well as some private banks.  The fact that the Belgian central bank is 50% by the public

presents enormous difficulties to the ECB

(Bolen)

Why European Central Banks Will Suffer Steep Losses

MONDAY, OCT 24, 2022 – 04:15 AM

Submitted by Thomas Bolen, Bas Dommerholt and Martijn Jeroen Van Der Linden ofFollow The Money

Private banks get billions from the ECB and European taxpayers will foot the bill

In September, the president of the Dutch central bank wrote what may have been the most remarkable letter of his career: it said that the ECB’s interest rate hikes will lead to losses for De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) for the first time since 1932. Several countries throughout the eurozone are facing a similar problem. To absorb the losses of their central banks, European taxpayers risk having to pay tens or even hundreds of billions of euros a year. Meanwhile private banks get that same amount of money without having to do anything in return. The ECB now stands ready to make a crucial policy decision to determine whether billions in taxpayer money will again flow to the banking sector.

Klaas Knot, President of De Nederlandsche Bank, is giving a lecture on a conference in celebration of the euro’s twentieth anniversary

On 20th September 2022, the board of the Nationale Bank van België (NBB) went into a panic. The Belgian central bank is owned half by the state and half by private shareholders. Unlike most other eurozone central banks, NBB’s shares are traded on the Euronext stock exchange in Brussels. The central bank therefore has a market value and that value suddenly collapsed.

The next day, pending a press release by representatives of the Belgian central bank, trading in NBB shares was temporarily suspended. Once trading resumed, NBB shares dropped even further in value: in just a few days, the share price plummeted from 1,600 to 860 euro.

The NNB press release made it clear in the very first sentence what had caused the sudden drop in share price: ‘The Nationale Bank van België took note of the letter written by Mr Klaas Knot, President of De Nederlandsche Bank, to Mrs Sigrid Kaag, Dutch Minister of Finance, with the subject heading “letter regarding DNB’s capital position”, which was published yesterday on the DNB website.’

It was not the Belgian central bank, but its Dutch counterpart which had caused the panic.

What had happened? On September 9th, the president of De Nederlandsche Bank, Klaas Knot, sent a letter to the Dutch Minister of Finance, Sigrid Kaag. On September 20th, DNB published the letter on its website. Its news on the monetary situation in the eurozone was so explosive that it shocked the Belgian central bank’s private shareholders. This resulted in them doing something that the state – which is the sole shareholder of the central bank in other euro countries – cannot do: they decided to sell off their shares.

Knot’s letter

What was  in Knot’s letter that so scared the Belgian shareholders? Well, it was a profit warning: ‘The current high inflation was not foreseen and therefore necessitates a tightening of monetary policy. This will lead to interest-rate hikes and subsequent losses for DNB.’ In essence, this meant that the ECB decided that the national central banks had to pay higher interest rates to private banks than DNB had expected.

Knot’s Belgian counterparts had remained silent on the similar problems that they faced, but the publication of the DNB letter put them on the spot. The NBB had to admit that ‘based on its most recent risk scenarios’ the bank was expecting losses too, adding: ‘The risk analysis indicates that losses will further increase over the coming years.’

This problem is not limited to Belgium and the Netherlands, but will affect all countries of the eurozone. It is the first time since the Great Depression of the 1930s that multiple central banks will make a loss.

The explosive growth of reserves

The losses originate in the explosive growth of central bank reserves, due to the so-called Quantitative Easing (QE) policy. Because interest rates could not be lowered any further and to counter the threat of deflation, the eurozone’s national central banks bought up tens of billions (varying from 20 to 120 billion) of  government and corporate bonds each month. They did so through the so-called Asset Purchase Programmes, which were financed with central bank reserves, the interbank money that the central bank creates itself.

In addition, private banks were able to borrow central bank reserves very cheaply, via targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs). They would sometimes even receive money on these loans, as the loans had a negative interest-rate for prolonged periods of time. Off the record, bankers were often heard calling these TLTROs ‘a gift from the central bank’. European private banks have made ample use of this free money: at present, there are approximately 2200 billion euros worth of extremely cheap long-term loans on their balance sheets.

The 2,200 billion euros in reserves borrowed by European banks through TLTROs come on top of their increased reserves due to the Asset Purchase Programmes. As a result, total reserves of these private banks have exploded: from 235 billion euros in 2015 to nearly 4,000 billion in September 2022.

From profit to loss

Up until a few months ago, when interest rates were still negative, that mountain of reserves did not negatively affect the profitability of the central banks in the eurozone. While private banks could borrow cheaply via TLTROs, they also had to pay the central banks negative interest on their central bank reserves. This provided the national central banks with a source of income.

The ECB has now raised the interest rate on most of these reserves to 0.75 per cent, with the idea that banks would simply pass these interest rate hikes on to the client. That would make saving more attractive, borrowing more expensive, and investing less profitable – with the aim of discouraging spending and thus curbing inflation.

But as policy rates were raised, the excess liquidity in the banking system suddenly became a cost item: the central bank now pays the private banks 0.75 percent interest on their excess reserves. Meanwhile, the income on the interest on government and corporate bonds that the central banks acquired through the Asset Purchase Programmes remains minimal. After all, these securities date back to the period of negative interest rates.

DNB is expecting a loss of a total of 9 billion euros over the period 2023-2026. A simple calculation shows that the cost to the public could become much larger. With the current interest rate of 0.75 per cent, DNB pays the banks approximately 1.6 billion annually. If the ECB should raise the policy rate in the short term to 3 or 5 percent, the interest expenses on reserves would rise to 6.5 or even 10.7 billion per year.

For the joint European central banks, the reserves are already costing 30 billion a year. If the interest rate rises to 3 or 5 percent, our central banks will lose between 120 billion and 200 billion euros per year. The ECB cannot disclose the exact figures, but it has confirmed to Follow the Money that ‘the Eurosystem central banks will face a reduction in their net income and even face net losses.’ 

It is worth noting that the losses at DNB and the Bundesbank are above the average because they took a tough stance during the euro crisis. For the Public Sector Purchase Programme, the northern central banks did not want to share risk via the capital key, which is normally used to distribute risk over the national banks within the European central banking system. As a result, the northern central banks now own bonds with lower interest rates than the central banks of the southern euro countries. For example, the interest rate on Italian and Spanish government bonds is higher than the interest rate on Dutch or German bonds. Had the Northern European countries opted for risk sharing with other euro countries, their income from interest would now be higher.

Central banks are presenting the losses as if they come as a complete surprise, but rising interest rates were a predictable scenario. In 2021 the ECB conducted astrategy review of its monetary policy for the first time since 2003, but it did not take into account the consequences of rapidly rising interest rates.

Lex Hoogduin, professor of financial markets at the University of Groningen and former DNB director, calls this ‘a blunder’. ‘When you have created such a large amount of reserves, you need to plan for rising interest rates. You cannot simply assume that interest rates will remain low forever.’ According to him, ECB executives failed to critically examine their own policy in their strategy review. ‘In that respect, it was as if they had lost their grasp of reality.’

In response to questions from Follow the Money,the ECB said that it monitors very closely the risks associated with its monetary policy operations. ‘Remaining risks are accepted as a necessary cost for delivering on our policy mandate.’ The ECB states that ‘the Eurosystem has been building financial buffers over the past years, which thereby take into consideration the potential materialisation of financial losses.’

A bailout is a choice

These financial buffers, however, seem to be insufficient, at least for the Dutch central bank. In its letter to the Ministry of Finance, DNB writes about the expected losses and also stipulates how the state, as its sole shareholder, may have to step in to supplement DNB’s capital. The bank supervisor does not have sufficient capital buffers to withstand these losses – in that sense, it did not comply with the requirements it imposes on private banks. This time it may not be the commercial banks which come under their supervision, but the guardians of the banking sector who may have to be bailed out by the taxpayer.

However, DNB does not mention any of the policy options that the European Central Bank could use in order to prevent the eurozone’s national central banks suffering huge losses. In this way, it distracts from the fact that it is a decision – and not a foregone conclusion – to have the taxpayer pick up the bill for their unconventional monetary policy. If the ECB chose a different strategy, it could raise interest rates to combat inflation, without the necessity for public bailouts of Europe’s central banks.

Let’s examine the available policy options. The cause of the central banks’ losses is obvious: a combination of a large amount of reserves and the interest paid on them. When interest rates rise, the costs for a large amount of excess reserves increase rapidly. The obvious solution is to ‘mop up’ the excess liquidity. The central bank can do this by selling the government and corporate bonds it purchased on the financial markets. While quantitative easing creates central bank reserves, so-called quantitative tightening destroys them.

However, this would immediately lead to greater losses for the central bank, as the value of most of these bonds has since fallen below their purchase price. Moreover, the huge supply from the central banks would put further pressure on their market value. In that case, the market interest rate against which European governments finance themselves would also rise further. Countries with high government debts could face serious financing problems immediately. Large financial institutions holding bonds (such as banks, pension funds and insurers) would also face large losses. This is not a realistic option. On the surface, the ECB appears to be stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Higher reserve requirements 

But there are other conventional policy instruments to bring down inflation that do not involve the ECB spending taxpayer money. For example, the ECB can raise reserve requirements and abolish or lower the interest rate on (parts of) the reserves. In that way, the ECB would make private banks contribute their fair share to the monetary tightening, while reducing the public burden.

In the past, increasing or decreasing the reserve requirement for banks was a frequently used instrument in the central banks’ toolbox. The higher the requirement, the more reserves private banks must hold. This creates scarcity in reserves and simultaneously increases the effectiveness of the interest-rate instrument. Raising the reserve requirement was used, for instance, to curb high inflation in the 1970s. Since the 1980s – when the idea that creating money was best left to market forces was put into practice – the use of this policy tool gradually waned. In some countries, the reserve requirement has even been abolished.

However, a return to a conventional monetary policy can be achieved with a decent increase in reserve requirements. In 1998, just before the introduction of the euro, the ECB Governing Council itself gave three arguments why adjusting reserve requirements is an effective strategy in monetary policy and fighting inflation: it stabilises market interest rates, it enlarges the demand for central bank money, and it helps control the expansion of monetary aggregates.

The ECB can single-handedly determine the reserve requirement for private banks within the eurozone. When the euro was introduced on 1st January 1999, the reserve requirement was 2 percent. In 2012, the ECB lowered that obligation to 1 percent. By law, the reserve requirement is allowed to rise to 10 percent. That means the ECB still has a policy margin of 9 percent at its disposal on this instrument, which can be used at any time.

Asked whether the central bank is considering raising reserve requirements, the ECB replied to Follow the Money that it is ‘currently analysing the issue, but it is too early to be more specific at this stage about possible options.’

Having interest on central bank reserves is not self-evident

In addition, the ECB has various interest-rate instruments at its disposal. It can set the interest rate at which banks borrow reserves, and it can, independent from that rate, determine the remuneration on deposited reserves. 

It used to be common practice to set high reserve requirements without any interest paid to private banks. The most influential economist of the last century, John Maynard Keynes, wrote in 1930: ‘It is right and reasonable that the member banks should contribute, in the shape of non-interest-bearing deposits held by them with the Central Bank, the bulk of the resources which are required for the safety of the highly economical and efficient system, the existence of which enables the member banks to be so comfortable and profitable.’ Private banks profit from a stable monetary system, so why shouldn’t they pay for its maintenance?

After all, liquidity buffers were introduced to compensate for excessive risk-taking by banks and to make the monetary system more secure. The digital central bank reserves are the modern equivalent of cash or gold bars in a vault. There is no obvious reason to pay interest on them: they are not loaned out, and banks are not exposed to any risk by holding them. The reserves are simply the monetary foundation upon which our financial system is built. As the Greek philosopher Aristotle said in the third century BC, ‘Money is sterile’. It is not meant to multiply by itself. In fact, most religions consider it immoral when that happens. ‘Using money to make money’ has traditionally been considered a sin within Christianity and Islam.

Despite this ancient convention, central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic have become increasingly susceptible to the argument that the reserve requirement is an inappropriate tax on banks. The economists of the Chicago School, led by the famous Milton Friedman, argued that private banks should be compensated for the ‘forfeited’ income from interest due to reserve requirements. 

When the American central bank, the Federal Reserve, tried to implement interest payments on reserves without the consent of the American Parliament in 1978, they got a clear reaction from their political superiors. In a letter from both the House and the Senate Banking Committees, Congressmen wrote: ‘We believe that unilateral action to pay interest on reserve balances would constitute a blatant usurpation of Congressional powers and would raise profound questions about the continued independence of the Federal Reserve.’  

With remarkable foresight the letter continued: ‘In the absence of legislative limitations, the payment of interest on reserve balances, however modestly begun, could ultimately add billions of dollars to the federal deficit and could be viewed as a precedent for carte blanche authority for the expenditure of Federal Reserve bank earnings without restraint by either the Executive or Legislative branch of the government.’

In the USA, interest payments on reserves remained prohibited by law until 2008. 

In Europe, there was never such a public debate on the practice. The Dutch central bank was one of the first to silently cross the rubicon: when asked by Follow the Money, it could not recall when interest payments on reserves were first introduced. In Europe, interest payments on required reserves became common practice with the introduction of the euro.

When it suited the banks, it was possible  

What makes the central banks’ present silence on the option of reducing interest payments on reserves even more remarkable is that the ECB has been using this policy measure for the past three years. On 30th October 2019, the ECB set up a two-tier system, exempting part of the banks’ excess reserves from interest payments.

This happened when policy interest rates were negative, which meant that banks had to pay for their reserve deposits with the central bank. The ECB accomodated private banks with an exemption: they no longer had to pay interest on a large part of their reserves. However, the ECB abandoned the tiering system on 8th September 2022. If this measure was possible when it favoured the banks from 2019 to 2022, why wouldn’t it be possible to leave part of the central bank reserves unremunerated now, instead of asking the taxpayer for money?

On 12th October, Reuters cited anonymous sources from within who claim that the central bank is considering various options to reduce the interest payments on reserves, including reinstalling the two-tier system and changing the terms of the TLTROs. ‘Paying interest on these excess reserves deplete central banking profits, limiting their ability to pay cash into national budgets and depriving the state of vital income. […] Central banks could even deplete their own capital, possibly forcing governments to recapitalize lenders.’ Follow the Money confronted the ECB with these rumours, but the ECB says it is still ‘too early’ to comment on which policy options it is considering.

In the United Kingdom, a similar debate is going on about whether to stop private banks from being remunerated on their reserve balances. Bankers do not favour this option, as it would decrease their profitability.

Guardians of bank profitability

Miguel Ángel Fernández Ordóñez, the former president of the Spanish central bank, points out that the role of central banks has changed during the last decade. He argues that central banks have de facto become the ‘guardians of bank profitability’. During the past decade of low interest rates, all kinds of support measures, such as the two-tier-system and TLTROs, were implemented to support the profitability of banks. With interest rates rising, it seems that the central bank is once again throwing billions into the banks’ laps. Risk-free reserves – which, like cash and gold bars in a vault, normally yield no returns – are now providing the banks with high yields, whilst market rates for deposit holders at these banks are still nowhere near that rate. 

In response to Follow the Money,the ECB said that its monetary policy, including the bond holdings purchased through the Asset Purchase Programmes, is designed to fulfil its mandate ‘even if pursuing this policy could temporarily result in a reduction in the reported financial results’. For the ECB, their own losses are not a priority. ‘Our mandate is to maintain price stability, not to generate central bank profits.’ 

However, the decision whether or not to remunerate reserves or raise reserve requirements has implications that reach far beyond price stability. Instead of acting as stewards of seigniorage income, the national treasuries could become the cost bearer of interest payments to private banks, due to an ECB policy decision. This will have serious implications for the national budgets of member states, without their democratic parliaments having any say in the matter. 

The ECB is once again faced with decisions that will have large redistributive effects. It can single handedly prioritise the interests of private banks over the public interest. In a democracy, such choices should not be made by unelected central bankers who have no political accountability. This therefore warrants a thorough review of the checks and balances in our monetary system, especially with regard to the power of central banks.

Bank taxes

If European central bankers choose to pay large amounts of interest on central bank reserves, governments can intervene with an option of their own: they can simply choose to raise bank taxes. Belgium is already considering this move. In Spain, the government is arguing that the ‘extraordinary’ profits enjoyed by the banking sector warrant a ‘windfall tax’ on banks. The Spanish government has drawn up a proposal and officially asked the ECB for its opinion on the matter. 

The largest banks in Spain oppose the proposal. Gonzalo Gortázar, chief executive of CaixaBank, saidto the Financial Times on 20th October that ‘banks are not likely to have extraordinary profits’ but are instead still recovering from ‘a long period of very low returns’. He believes that the tax is ‘counterproductive because in an economic slowdown, we need a strong banking sector’.

Higher bank taxes would result in a triangular interdependency in which central banks pay interest to private banks, governments replenish central banks’ equity, and private banks’ surplus profits are taxed to cover these government expenses. It is a cumbersome, roundabout approach, but it can be a last resort to prevent passing on the costs of the ECB’s unconventional policies to European citizens. In other words, it would prevent taxpayer money ending up once again in bankers’ coffers.

Bas Dommerholt contributed to this article in a personal capacity. He works for the Dutch Financial Markets Authority (AFM) where he specializes in Capital markets supervision & policy.

END

GERMANY

The state of affairs inside Germany:  it is not good!

(Remix)

Germany Could Witness A Cash Renaissance As Its Economy Continues To Deteriorate

MONDAY, OCT 24, 2022 – 02:00 AM

By Remix News

It may already have seemed that inflation in the West is slowly approaching its peak, but that is not the case. Considering the numbers coming from Germany, inflation may be far from peaking.

Producer prices in Germany increased by a record 45.8 percent year-over-year in September, the same as in August. Energy prices, which rose by 132.2 percent year-over-year, had the most impact on this. The only positive thing about this is that the month-over-month growth slowed a little due to the drop in commodity prices. However, for consumers, it follows that consumer inflation, which lags behind the so-called production inflation, must still climb. We cannot lie about this.

For Germans, however, the following sentence, which German statisticians added as a comment to the numbers, sounds the most frightening: “Compared to the same period last year, August and September recorded the highest increase in producer prices since the start of the survey in 1949.”

Germany is extremely sensitive to mentions of inflation or public debt. To understand why, we have to go back in history. The pre-war hyperinflation in Germany was caused by the fact that Germany could not finance the reparations from World War I. It began to pay its reparations with debt and started to monetize this debt, printing uncovered inflationary money and using it to pay off the debt. The result was hyperinflation and total economic disruption. Many historians believe it was this economic undergrowth that brought Hitler to power and marked World War II.

After the war, Germany, therefore, made a literal 180-degree turn. While before the war it showed enormous fiscal indiscipline, went into debt, printed money, and faced hyperinflation, after the war, on the contrary, it became Europe’s top-of-the-class in fiscal policy. It began scrupulously taking care to keep its public finances under control, not excessively inflating its debt, and not even remotely playing with anything resembling monetization. Jens Wiedmann, former governor of the German central bank, has been the most vocal central banker in Europe when it comes to criticizing the monetization of southern European debt and the policy of negative interest rates that the European Central Bank has begun to commit to in recent years. And it was the German Constitutional Court, through which some of the ECB’s plans of monetizing public debt did not pass.

So we have to understand that for Germany, the current inflation and debt monetization are much more sensitive topics than for any other European country. So far, consumer inflation in Germany is “only” 10 percent, a drop above the average inflation rate in the entire Eurozone, which reached 9.9 percent. Inflation, however, continues to rise.

Economics is not mathematics; economics is mainly about psychology. And here, we begin to encounter very sensitive limits of psychological tolerance. At this moment, inflation has several dimensions. In the first place, the Germans are becoming alarmed and irritated, although they are not yet venting such emtions via mass riots.

Secondly, it is politically very tricky to call a spade a spade. Given the German sensitivities on the mentioned topics, it is simply not politically appropriate to say that inflation is caused by the monetization of European sovereign debt. Rather, they talk about expensive energy, which in turn is linked to the war in Ukraine. They do not directly name the causes. But if we do not identify the causes, we cannot eliminate them, so we cannot solve the problem. The fact that the presidents and prime ministers of the countries of the European Union are trying to find the solution to expensive energy, and talk in particular about the regulation of gas prices, is a testament to this blind stumbling. This is what’s happening instead of admitting the simple facts that, on the one hand, there is more money than goods in circulation and, on the other hand, energy demand is greater than the supply after we voluntarily switched off energy as part of the Green Deal.

And thirdly, people are increasingly fleeing inflation by going into real assets. They can no longer run to mortgages due to the rapidly rising interest rates. Although gold is in great demand in Europe, having a choice between gold and gold is not enough for somebody. And so the demand for such things as historical weapons, aged alcohol, or Swiss watches is growing. Exports of Swiss watches rose by 19 percent in September and could be a record this year. A time is coming when people will increasingly use cash instead of bank accounts and pour cash into cashable durables.

END

EU/UKRAINE

Idiotic! EU which is totally broke, is to give 1.5 billion euros per month of aid beginning in 2023

(Freeman/Antiwar.com)

EU To Give Ukraine 1.5 Billion Euros Per Month Next Year

MONDAY, OCT 24, 2022 – 06:55 AM

Authored by Connor Freeman via AntiWar.com,

European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the bloc would give Kiev 18 billion euros next year while it continues fighting Russia, Reuters reported on Friday.

The latest  pledge was made during the second day of the EU leaders’ summit in Brussels, where further support for Ukraine is being discussed. According to von der Leyen, Kiev estimates that, to run the country, it requires 3-4 billion euros every month “for the basics.”

So far, this year the bloc has provided Kiev with 19 billion euros. Looking ahead to 2023, the EU is committing to give Kiev 1.5 billion euros per month. The remaining monthly welfare for Ukraine’s government is expected to come out of the American taxpayers’ pockets and international institutions, according to von der Leyen.Ukraine recently applied for EU membership, image via The Presidential Office of Ukraine

As Americans and Europeans alike struggle amid skyrocketing inflation and soaring energy prices, their governments appear dead set on continuing to pour tens of billions of dollars into Ukraine to fund its corrupt government and keep NATO’s proxy war going. “It is very important for Ukraine to have a predictable and stable flow of income,” von der Leyen declared.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the EU leaders at the summit and made several demands. He wants “new powerful” sanctions levied against Russia and Iran. Zelensky blames Tehran for Moscow’s drone attacks, but there is no definitive evidence that the Iranians have sold Moscow these weapons. Despite repeated denials from Russia and Iran, the EU as well as the UK imposed fresh sanctions on Iran this week over the allegations of Russia bombing Ukraine with Iranian drones.

Moreover, Zelensky asked the EU for more air and missile defense systems. In recent weeks, Berlin sent the first of four IRIS-T air defense systems and Paris pledged more anti-aircraft systems. Zelensky also warned that Moscow’s increased air attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, which is being provoked by repeated Ukrainian terror attacks and shelling inside Russia, will lead to a refugee crisis in Europe.

“Russian terror against our energy facilities is aimed at creating as many problems as possible with electricity and heat for Ukraine this fall and winter so that as many Ukrainians as possible move to your countries,” Zelensky told the summit. The EU is now looking at ways to assist Ukraine to restore power, electricity, and water supplies, von der Leyen said.

Concurrently, the German parliament approved a massive 200 billion euro ($195 billion) rescue package to help households and companies as they endure the energy crisis caused by the Washington-led sanctions blitz on Russia. Before the war began, Russia provided roughly a third of Europe’s gas and Germany depended on Moscow for more than half of its gas supplies. After the Nord Stream pipelines were sabotaged, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to ship gas to Europe via an undamaged line in Nord Stream 2. This offer was quickly rejected by Berlin.

There are current rumblings that GOP House members are getting frustrated with a “blank check” mentality toward Ukraine…

Secretary of State Antony Blinken celebrated the explosions in the Baltic Sea, which caused possibly the largest ever leak of methane gas, describing the attack as a “tremendous strategic opportunity for the years to come.”

Before incumbents are replaced after the midterms in January, members of both parties in the U.S. Congress reportedly plan to pass another gargantuan Ukraine aid packageThe number being floated is $50 billion. This is supposed to keep Kiev’s war going for another year, but that number will likely increase. Washington has already funded Ukraine’s war with more than $67 billion this year, in mostly military aid, this would raise that figure to more than $115 billion.

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Massive new strikes leave 1.5 million Ukrainians without power.  Also phased in blackouts in Kiev will be the norm

(zerohedge)

‘Massive New Strikes’ Leave 1.5 Million Ukrainians Without Power, Phased Blackouts In Kiev

SUNDAY, OCT 23, 2022 – 12:00 PM

Now much of Western Ukraine, which lies far away from the front lines of fighting with Russia in the east, is without power due to fresh weekend airstrikes across the country. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a Saturday night address said new “massive” strikes targeted Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytsky, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Rivne, Volyn and Zaporizhia regions.

“We continue eliminating the aftermath of today’s terrorist attacks on our infrastructure,” Zelensky said“The geography of this new massive strike is very wide.”Thermal power plant on fire following Russian strike, via Reuters.

The past days have already seen power outages in Kyiv, with energy grid authorities warning of rolling blackouts, and urging residents to take power-saving measures such as the avoidance of running large appliances. 

On Saturday the national power utility operator Ukrenergo said that damage from the latest round of Russian strikes set a new record. The Saturday air offensive by Russia was bigger than an initial major wave of strikes from earlier this month:

Over 1.4 million Ukrainian households have lost electricity after a morning of repeated Russian air raids, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office says.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that 40 cruise missiles and 16 allegedly Iranian-made drones hit Ukraine throughout the day.

Oleksandr Kharchenko, a Ukrainian energy official, said in an interview with US media that national infrastructure vital for the people is facing “really huge trouble”.

“When you don’t have electricity in a city, it means you have no water, you have no supply of gas, you have nothing,” Kharchenko said. Days prior to the stepped-up Saturday assault the government said one-third of all power stations had been hit or damaged in Russian strikes. 

Most new damage to energy has been recorded in the country’s west, south and center, with some hospitals since reporting they are running on backup generators. Reserves of oxygen and fresh water are also being tapped by hospitals. 

Ukrenegro has on Sunday introduced phased blackouts to “avoid accidents”, per The Guardian

The blackouts began at 11.13am local time (09.30am BST), with households in Kyiv divided into three groups that will be “disconnected for a certain period of time”, DTEK said.

It added that the blackouts should last “no more than four hours” but may be longer “due to the scale of damage to the power supply system”.

According to the latest estimate of the damage reported in Reuters, “Russia has hit at least half of Ukraine’s thermal generation capacity and caused billions of dollars of damage in attacks since Oct. 10, but not all stricken power units have stopped working completely, Ukraine’s energy minister said on Friday.”

Further, “Herman Halushchenko told Reuters in an interview that 30-40% of overall national power infrastructure had been hit in attacks that he depicted as intended to destroy Ukraine’s energy system — a goal that he said had not been achieved.”

END

Russia warns that Ukraine might set off a dirty bomb

(zerohedge)

Russia Warns Of ‘Dirty Bomb’ False Flag Plot In Flurry Of Rare Calls To Western Leaders

SUNDAY, OCT 23, 2022 – 04:45 PM

Update(1645ET)A major new and sensational charge of a Ukrainian false flag plot in the making issued by Russia’s defense chief has set off a string of tit-for-tat accusations and statements Sunday.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed in rare phone calls that included his counterparts from the United States, Britain, France, and Turkey that Ukrainian forces arepreparing a “provocation” with a radioactive device. A Kremlin statement cited that he conveyed a warning over “possible Ukrainian provocations involving a ‘dirty bomb'”.

Shoigu’s office said in follow-up that he conveyed the warning to all the above-named countries’ defense chiefs. As for his conversation with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, it was the second phone call in merely three days. The Pentagon in the hours after said Austin told Shoigu he “rejected any pretext for Russian escalation” – which strongly suggests the US perceives that Moscow is about to heighten attacks on Ukrainian cities further:

Russian authorities repeatedly have made allegations that Ukraine could detonate a dirty bomb in a false flag attack and blame it on Moscow.Ukrainian authorities, in turn, have accused the Kremlin of hatching such a plan.

The Kremlin is further charging that this low-intensity nuclear provocation is being prepared with the help of Great Britain; however, the Western allies have said no evidence whatsoever was presented in the phone calls alongside the accusations.

The UK defense ministry said in its statement following Shoigu’s phone call with Secretary Ben Wallace that the Russian side “alleged that Ukraine was planning actions facilitated by Western countries, including the UK, to escalate the conflict in Ukraine.”

“The Defense Secretary refuted these claims and cautioned that such allegations should not be used as a pretext for greater escalation,” the ministry said.

Russia is saying that such a ‘dirty bomb’ detonation, which would spread radioactive waste and potentially contaminate large urban areas, would then be blamed on Moscow in order to justify greater Western intervention.

Ukraine, for its part, blasted what the presidency’s office called an “absolute and quite predictable absurdity” and blatant “lie”. France too agreed with Ukraine’s assessment, and a statement from the French Foreign Ministry has ominously warned that the crisis is “trending towards uncontrollable escalation.” But Macron on Sunday admitted that “peace is possible”– yet it depends on when the Ukrainians “decide it”.

Meanwhile, Zelensky’s own rhetoric urging Western military intervention has escalated as well, all of which strongly suggests the war will soon grow hotter.

* * *

earlier

Now much of Western Ukraine, which lies far away from the front lines of fighting with Russia in the east, is without power due to fresh weekend airstrikes across the country. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a Saturday night address said new “massive” strikes targeted Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytsky, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Rivne, Volyn and Zaporizhia regions.

“We continue eliminating the aftermath of today’s terrorist attacks on our infrastructure,” Zelensky said“The geography of this new massive strike is very wide.”

Thermal power plant on fire following Russian strike, via Reuters.

The past days have already seen power outages in Kyiv, with energy grid authorities warning of rolling blackouts, and urging residents to take power-saving measures such as the avoidance of running large appliances. 

On Saturday the national power utility operator Ukrenergo said that damage from the latest round of Russian strikes set a new record. The Saturday air offensive by Russia was bigger than an initial major wave of strikes from earlier this month:

Over 1.4 million Ukrainian households have lost electricityafter a morning of repeated Russian air raids, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office says.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that40 cruise missiles and 16 allegedly Iranian-made drones hit Ukraine throughout the day.

Oleksandr Kharchenko, a Ukrainian energy official, said in an interview with US media that national infrastructure vital for the people is facing “really huge trouble”.

“When you don’t have electricity in a city, it means you have no water, you have no supply of gas, you have nothing,” Kharchenko said. Days prior to the stepped-up Saturday assault the government said one-third of all power stations had been hit or damaged in Russian strikes. 

Most new damage to energy has been recorded in the country’s west, south and center, with some hospitals since reporting they are running on backup generators. Reserves of oxygen and fresh water are also being tapped by hospitals. 

Ukrenegro has on Sunday introduced phased blackouts to “avoid accidents”, per The Guardian

The blackouts began at 11.13am local time (09.30am BST), with households in Kyiv divided into three groups that will be “disconnected for a certain period of time”, DTEK said.

It added that the blackouts should last “no more than four hours” but may be longer “due to the scale of damage to the power supply system”.

According to the latest estimate of the damage reported in Reuters, “Russia has hit at least half of Ukraine’s thermal generationcapacity and caused billions of dollars of damage in attacks since Oct. 10, but not all stricken power units have stopped working completely, Ukraine’s energy minister said on Friday.”

Further, “Herman Halushchenko told Reuters in an interview that 30-40% of overall national power infrastructure had been hit in attacks that he depicted as intended to destroy Ukraine’s energy system — a goal that he said had not been achieved.”\

end

Russia Warns Of ‘Dirty Bomb’ False Flag Plot In Flurry Of Rare Calls To Western Leaders | ZeroHedge

Robert Hryniak1:08 PM (45 minutes ago)
to

>
> There are times when one wonders about the sanity of so called national leaders and the race to war. We live in one of the most important moments in history in our lifetimes.

> Perhaps this moment is more important than any other moment since the fall of the Berlin wall. Major Geo political shifts are currently taking place and if the end of the Cold War saw the rise of the western bloc to dominance, then the start of this new Cold War has seen the return of a new eastern bloc quite ready to serve his rightful place in the world. The era of western interventions, regime change and hit-and-run tactics is almost at an end. The real question is does it end peacefully or will it end violently but end it will.

> What even makes more confusing is that what seems like a terrorists in Ukraine demanding both money and arms or otherwise they create a refugee crisis in Europe using their own citizens if they do not get what they want. When did the world decide to negotiate with such Blatant threats by what can only be described as a dictator who sacrifices his own people in waves of attacks which result in certain death with no remorse while demanding more assistance.

> So yes, this is crazy. And Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure is not so far from reducing the Ukraine back to Stone Age. Another 3 substations of 750 variety will do the job. Some of you may remember the last week I wrote about the Ukrainians having used the HIMARS  rocket system to send a radioactive shell into the Donbass. At that time I wrote and told you that I knew the factory where it was made in and the contents of the shell. What was very clear at the time was that this was a test run. A test run because the Ukrainians have been developing a dirty bomb for sometime, with the direct help of certain Western sponsors who are also known. Over the weekend, it is become very clear that the Ukrainians badly losing the conflict and are prepared to cause the doomsday scenario to get NATO to enter the conflict on the side of the Ukraine. I also wrote that the Kahovskaya and Dnipro dams are in danger of being blown up endangering at least 50,000 lives in the Kherson area.

> Over the weekend Russian Defense Minister Shoigu held telephone calls with America, France, Turkey and others to directly warn that there is an imminent danger of this dirty bomb being released by the mad men in Kiev who care not for their own citizens let alone anyone else. Are they truly mad or just so evil as to ignite a nuclear war to serve another’s agenda?? In addition to Shoigu who is a straight shooter Sergei Naryshkin the head of the Russian Federal Security Bureau ( FSB) has publicly come out to verify what Shoigu has warned people about is indeed true as Russia has verified same. Demented NATO fans have come out in the past to say that if there is radiation coming from the Ukraine into NATO countries then it will be attack on NATO and Article 5 invoking collective defense will be declared. And a nuclear war that will be won by no one will be on.

> We can safely assume that countries like Poland, Bulgaria and Germany will be affected with untold human suffering apart whatever Millions of Ukrainians will die or be hurt. Why is there this crazy need to die in vain for something that cannot be gained? Even more dramatic was today’s call by was earlier today by Russian General Gerasimov to the chairman of the United States joint chief of staff General Milley. If 3 such high ranking parties in Russia reach out then be sure this is beyond serious. whatever happens next please be careful because there will be littler warning and pray that sanity prevails. And that there is time to rein in these fools in the Ukraine, before we witness a nuclear war.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/massive-new-strike-leaves-15-million-ukrainians-without-power-phased-blackouts-kiev

end

The ‘War of Terror’ may be about to hit Europe

Pepe Escobar:

We should all question, what if, if Pepe is correct.

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/10/24/691505/War-Terror-Europe-Pepe-Escobar

end

No comments necessary!!

Crown Prince Mocks Biden As Mentally Challenged Amid Crashing US-Saudi Relations

MONDAY, OCT 24, 2022 – 02:05 PM

Just when you thought the Saudis couldn’t humiliate the Biden administration any more, the Wall Street Journal reports that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is reportedly talking massive trash about the US president behind closed doors.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s 37-year-old day-to-day ruler, mocks President Biden in private, making fun of the 79-year-old’s gaffes and questioning his mental acuity, according to people inside the Saudi government. He has told advisers he hasn’t been impressed with Mr. Biden since his days as vice president, and much preferred former President Donald Trump, the people said. –WSJ

What ever would give MbS that impression?

Saudi foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan has denied the report – saying “These allegations made by anonymous sources are entirely false,” adding “The kingdom’s leaders have always held the utmost respect for U.S. presidents, based on the kingdom’s belief in the importance of having a relationship based on mutual respect.”

That said, the two leaders haven’t been on good terms since even before Biden took office – with Biden calling Saudi Arabia a “pariah” while on the 2020 campaign trail over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, adding that he saw “very little social redeeming value in the present government in Saudi Arabia.

Then, after refusing to speak with MbS for over a year (teleprompter issues?), Saudi officials present at a July meeting in Jeddah indicated that Biden clearly didn’t want to be there, and was not interested in policy discussions.

“The interactions with the Biden administration were so bad for the first two years that one visit was insufficient to propel Saudi to walk away from” its oil alliance with Moscow, according to David Schenker, a senior State Department official under the Trump administration and now a fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank.

As the Journal further notes, the US-Saudi relationship has been strained for years, but the animosity between Biden and MbS has ‘deepened the tension, and it is likely to get only messier.’

In his first weeks in office, the president froze Saudi arms sales, reversed a last-minute Trump administration decision to label Yemen’s Houthi rebels a foreign terrorist organization, and published the intelligence report on Mr. Khashoggi’s killing which Mr. Trump had previously dismissed. -WSJ

“Rarely has the chain of broken expectations and perceived insults and humiliations been greater than they are now,” said veteran US Middle East diplomat Aaron David Miller, who now works at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “There’s almost no trust and absolutely no mutual respect.”

In perhaps the biggest ‘f-you’ to the Biden administration, the Saudis led OPEC+ in a production cut despite the US asking them to delay the decision until after midterms – which the Saudis revealed in a scathing letter nearly two weeks ago.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfdGltZWxpbmVfbGlzdCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOlsibGlua3RyLmVlIiwidHIuZWUiLCJ0ZXJyYS5jb20uYnIiLCJ3d3cubGlua3RyLmVlIiwid3d3LnRyLmVlIiwid3d3LnRlcnJhLmNvbS5iciJdLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdGltZWxpbmVfMTIwMzQiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoidHJlYXRtZW50IiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd190d2VldF9lZGl0X2JhY2tlbmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib24iLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3JlZnNyY19zZXNzaW9uIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9uIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19jaGluX3BpbGxzXzE0NzQxIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6ImNvbG9yX2ljb25zIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd190d2VldF9yZXN1bHRfbWlncmF0aW9uXzEzOTc5Ijp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6InR3ZWV0X3Jlc3VsdCIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0Zndfc2Vuc2l0aXZlX21lZGlhX2ludGVyc3RpdGlhbF8xMzk2MyI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJpbnRlcnN0aXRpYWwiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2V4cGVyaW1lbnRzX2Nvb2tpZV9leHBpcmF0aW9uIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6MTIwOTYwMCwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19kdXBsaWNhdGVfc2NyaWJlc190b19zZXR0aW5ncyI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdmlkZW9faGxzX2R5bmFtaWNfbWFuaWZlc3RzXzE1MDgyIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6InRydWVfYml0cmF0ZSIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdHdlZXRfZWRpdF9mcm9udGVuZCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1580383630433878016&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fmbs-mocks-biden-mentally-challenged-us-saudi-relations-continue-sour-wsj&sessionId=8d9ab4a496d7e22e2c70ac6214d14ffa44865bbe&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1c23387b1f70c%3A1664388199485&width=550px

Now, the White House says Biden wants to review whether the Saudi relationship is serving US interests, while Saudi officials have indicated the same.

In the Biden administration’s view, the Ukraine war is a decisive historical moment that requires countries to choose a side, with the OPEC+ cut putting the Saudis closer to the Russians. The Saudis see an opportunity to assert their own interests in a world where the U.S. isn’t the undisputed superpower, saying they can support Ukraine and work with Russia in OPEC+ at the same time.

Saudi officials say they are frustrated the relationship is still viewed through the narrow lens of oil and security. Riyadh has framed the recent OPEC+ decision as vital to its core national interests, a technical decision that they say was needed to prevent a precipitous drop in crude prices. Prince Mohammed now sees high oil prices as perhaps his last shot to use the kingdom’s natural resources to modernize the Saudi economy and build a post-oil future. -WSJ

“Our economic agenda is critical to our survival. It’s not just about energy and defense,” said bin Farhan in a recent interview. “It may have been 50 years ago but that certainly is not the case today.

December looms

In less than two months, three events of major significance for global energy markets will occur; OPEC+ will meet, the EU will discuss an embargo of Russian oil, and the G-7 will discuss capping the price of Russian crude.

According to Saudi government insiders, a production increase is on the table if the market loses Russian oil because of the EU embargo or G-7 price cap. US officials are skeptical, and say that this will be a key litmus test for where the kingdom stands regarding the west vs. Russia.

“The American bet is that the Saudis need the United States and will come around, and the Saudi bet is the opposite,” said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, adding that the White House has ignored the personal nature of US-Saudi ties.

And according to Steven Cook, a Middle East expert with the CFR, “When you’re dealing with a country that’s basically run by five people, it has to be on a personal level.

Meanwhile, ‘One drastic option on the table: Saudi officials have said privately that the kingdom could sell the U.S. Treasury bonds it holds if Congress were to pass anti-OPEC legislation, according to people familiar with the matter. Saudi holdings of U.S. Treasurys increased to $119.2 billion in June from $114.7 billion in May, according to U.S. Treasury data. Saudi Arabia is the 16th largest holder of U.S. Treasurys, according to federal data.’

It’s hard to imagine either side saying ‘All right, let’s put this back together,’” said Cook.


>

6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES//VACCINE ISSUES.

Vaccine//Covid issues:

GLOBAL ISSUES

Weak growth everywhere!!Recession throughout the globe

(Mish ShedlockMishtalk)

Ocean Shipping Costs Decline 84%, Truckers On Verge Of Losing Money

MONDAY, OCT 24, 2022 – 10:26 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The period between Labor Day and Christmas is typically peak shipping season. Don’t expect much of a peak this year…

No Backlog at California Ports 

The Wall Street Journal reports Southern California’s Notorious Container Ship Backup Ends

Key Stats 

  • The queue of ships waiting to unload at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach fell from a peak of 109 ships in January to four vessels this week.
  • Descartes Datamyne, a data analysis group owned by supply-chain software company Descartes Systems Group Inc., says container imports to the U.S. in September declined by 11% from a year earlier and by 12.4% from August.
  • Shipping lines have canceled between 26% to 31% of their sailings across the Pacific over the coming weeks, according to Sea-Intelligence
  • In September of 2021 the average cost for shipping a container from Asia to the U.S. West Coast exceeded $20,000. Last week, the average cost to ship a container from Asia to the U.S. West Coast had declined 84% from a year earlier to $2,720.

Extraordinary Progress 

2022 September vs September Prior Years 

  • 2022 vs 2021: -26.6%
  • 2022 vs 2020: -27.2%
  • 2022 vs 2019: -14.6%
  • 2022 vs 2018: -17.1%
  • 2022 vs 2017: -11.6%

The last positive comparison vs other years was September of 2009 coming out of the great recession. 

Truck Shipping Rates Barely Positive

Great Purge Coming Up

Shipping Rates

Aerial Reconnaissance

Great Pic!

What About Railroads?

Keep Those Rate Hikes Coming!

Question of the Day

Q: Are we in recession or just headed for one?
A: The question is moot. 

Not only does Fed policy operates with a lag, the Fed appears committed to holding rates at a high level for some time. Sooner or later does not matter much. 

GDPNow Creator Pat Higgins On the October Surge in the GDP Forecast

GDPNow data from the Atlanta Fed, chart by Mish

I had bookmarked a recession starting in May, but if GDPNow is close to accurate, the US will have skirted a recession through Q3.

For discussion, please see GDPNow Creator Pat Higgins On the October Surge in the GDP Forecast.

Spotlight on Current Real Final Sales (RFS) Estimate – October 14

  • Base GDP Estimate: 2.8 Percent (Above Chart)
  • RFS Total: 2.9 Percent (Above Chart)
  • RFS Domestic: +0.6 Percent (Report Details)
  • RFS Private Domestic: +0.2 Percent (Report Details)

Collapse in Imports 

It’s a collapse in imports thus improved balance of trade that caused a surge in the GDPNow model.

The collapse in imports certainly matches the data and analysis of Craig Fuller.

How much the model overreacted or underreacted to that improved balance of trade remains to be seen. 

Expect a Long Period of Weak Growth, Whether or Not It’s Labeled Recession

I keep returning to my August 19, 2022 post Expect a Long Period of Weak Growth, Whether or Not It’s Labeled Recession

Lost in the debate over whether recession has started, is the observation that it doesn’t matter much either way.

A Big Housing Bust is the Key to Understanding This Recession

Housing leads recessions and recoveries and housing rates to be weak for a long time.

Add it all up and you have the opposite of the Covid-recession, a long period of economic weakness with minimal rise in unemployment.

It does not matter whether you label this a recession or not. Besides, the NBER might not even announce the recession until it’s over. That happened once already.

The Fed is going to overshoot. Fears of stirring up inflation again will keep them from aggressively reacting.  

Many millions of the 22 million boomers age 60+ but still working will retire. This will prevent a huge jump in the unemployment rate that most expect. 

*  *  *

Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

end

PAUL ALEXANDER

“Dr. Fauci: These 2 new fast-spreading omicron Covid subvariants are pretty troublesome, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1”; of course Fauci, it’s the vaccine, stupid! NOT the virus; the VAX is causing the variants

A rapid mass vaccination campaign that utilizes a sub-optimal antigen-specific non-neutralizing vaccine (such as the COVID vaccines) and with vaccination across all age groups, and into the pandemic

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 21
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

That is, in the midst of an active pandemic of a highly mutable and highly infectious respiratory virus with high infectious pressure, can only generate a continued series of dominating new variants that are increasingly infectious, increasingly vaccine-resistant (due to “immune escape”), and inevitably more virulent (potentially lethal).  In short, the mass vaccination campaign that has been implemented during the COVID pandemic can potentially keep the pandemic going for many years with a potential more virulent sub-variant emerging.

These variants are emerging because of the vaccine and its sub-optimal vaccinal pressure on the infectiousness (and virulence) of the virus; the vaccine is giving the virus infectious properties it did not formerly have.

We have underestimated the evolutionary biology and the dynamics at play between the COVID virus (coronavirus, respiratory virus) and the resulting immune response from the population, either via natural infection or vaccine. Those making decisions have disregarded the evolutionary capacity of the virus to adapt and evolve due to the population immune pressure (mounting ‘immature’ undeveloped sub-optimal immunity). Especially if the immune response is sub-optimal and immature with immune fixation and priming (prejudice) that has induced vaccinal antibodies that do not neutralize the antigen (in this case Wuhan vaccine spike antibodies facing omicron BA.5 spike/clade).

This interplay and dance between virus and host immune system should have been the cardinal issue on day one for today, we are faced with infectious variant after infectious variant due to the non-sterilizing, non-neutralizing vaccine (vaccinal antibodies) that do not stop infection or transmission, placing the spike and binding domains under massive Darwinian selection pressure to select for the more ‘fitter’ infectious variants. The danger is that we can drive the emergence of a more virulent lethal sub-variant clade.

The COVID pandemic would have been over at least 1.5 years now yet it is continuing with expansion due to the use of the existing non-neutralizing COVID injections that do not stop infection, replication, or transmission, and in fact, drives emergence of infectious sub-variants (and a potentially virulent/lethal one). The Omicron virus (sub-variants) is largely resistant to the potentially neutralizing and non-neutralizing antigen-specific, vaccine induced antibodies (Abs).

It is the vaccine, stupid!

SOURCE:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/17/dr-fauci-covid-omicron-subvariants-bq1-bq11-are-troublesome.html

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Open in app or onlineIf this WEF clown Rishi with his ‘net zero bollocks’ is the next Prime Minister of UK, replacing Truss, God help UK; this guy has to read every line from teleprompter for 1.5 minutes? see J SchachtelRischi & his climate change garbage, does he know the garbage he talks? Does he know about the Vostok ice core samples? Schachtel’s “The “Free World” isn’t looking so free these days” is spot on!DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 24 ▷  LISTENSAVE The “Free World” isn’t looking so free these daysThe Anglosphere is completely captured by globalist interests.“The world’s English-speaking nations that share historical and ideological ties — commonly referred to as the Anglosphere — were once understood as the world’s most powerful beacons for the tenets of freedom. Through our elected politicians in 2022, however, this social contract has vanished, and its ideas are completely absent within the halls of political power. In today’s Anglosphere, it’s difficult to find a politician or policymaker, on either side of the dominant political factions of government, who genuinely defends the enlightenment principles that sparked the incredible and unprecedented human flourishing of past decades and centuries.The Dossier is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
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CDC openly lies to the nation repeatedly & here they do it again when they say it is up to the states to implement the 15-0 vote to place COVID gene injections on child immunization schedule

CDC knows that there are US states that follow the CDC’s immunization schedule & will implement, of course BLUE states & parents if you want your child not harmed & at no risk of death, say NO! Tucker

DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 23
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

Tucker Carlson @TuckerCarlson

The CDC complained about our segment on the Covid vaccine being required for kids to attend school. We stand by what we said. Here’s our response.

Image

CDC @CDCgov

Thursday, CDC’s independent advisory committee (ACIP) will vote on an updated childhood immunization schedule. States establish vaccine requirements for school children, not ACIP or CDC. More: https://t.co/w80hpKCvtt. https://t.co/xSMZfihtm912:46 AM ∙ Oct 20, 2022END
Open in app or online”COVID-19 Vaccine-Induced Myocarditis: A Systemic Review and Literature Search”; 94% of patients male, the median age for onset of myocarditis was 22 years and 85% had symptoms after the 2nd doseMost patients had elevated troponin on admission and about 90% of patients had cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) that showed late gadolinium enhancement (Khan et al.)DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 24 ▷  LISTENSAVE “The data were pooled from these qualifying case reports and case series. Around 94% of patients were male in this study, the median age for onset of myocarditis was 22 years and 85% developed symptoms after the second dose. The median time of admission for patients to hospitals post-vaccination was three days and chest pain was the most common presenting symptom in these patients. Most patients had elevated troponin on admission and about 90% of patients had cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) that showed late gadolinium enhancement.”SOURCE:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9419896/Would repeat boosting given the waning immunity of the vaccine and push to boost regularly, then cause accumulated myocarditis injury? Would the myocarditis injury accumulate with boosting?END

Dr. Geert Vanden Bosshe and Dr. Paul Alexander (re-post) discuss the COVID vaccine and the derangement of the immune system and the interplay between virus and host immune response

DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 23
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

Substack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine

Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche and Dr. Paul Alexander discuss COVID vaccines & original antigenic sin (mortal) & immune refocusing; Dr. Vanden Bossche emphasizes that COVID vaccines are to stop immediately!

SOURCE: https://rumble.com/v1ndlt0-top-global-virologist-and-vaccinologist-dr.-vanden-bossche-stop-the-covid-v.htmlSubstack Alexander COVID News evidence-based medicine is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber…

Read more


Open in app or onlineURGENT Japan: Watanabe et al.; “SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and increased myocarditis mortality risk: A population based comparative study in Japan”; remember, ‘healthy vaccinee effect’, deaths can be greater
“SARS-CoV-2 vaccination was associated with higher risk of myocarditis death, not only in young adults but also in all age groups including elderly”, healthy vaccinee effect, then risk 4 time higher
Dr. Paul Alexander
▷  LISTENSAVE SOURCE:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.10.13.22281036v1
Japanese researchers looked at the vaccinated population e.g. 99 834 543 individuals aged 12 years and older who received SARS-CoV-2 vaccine once or twice by 14 February 2022. The reference population was defined persons aged 10 years and older from 2017 to 2019.Key findings:‘Number of myocarditis death which met the inclusion criteria were 38 cases. MMRR (95% confidence interval) was 4.03 (0.77 to 13.60) in 20s, 6.69 (2.24 to 16.71) in 30s, 3.89 (1.48 to 8.64) in 40s, respectively. SMR of myocarditis was 2.01 (1.44 to 2.80) for overall vaccinated population, 1.65 (1.07 to 2.55) for those 60 years or older. Estimated adMMRRs and adSMR were about 4 times higher than the MMRRs and SMR. Pooled MOR for myocarditis were 205.60 (133.52 to 311.94).’“SARS-CoV-2 vaccination was associated with higher risk of myocarditis death, not only in young adults but also in all age groups including the elderly. Considering healthy vaccinee effect, the risk may be 4 times or higher than the apparent risk of myocarditis death. Underreporting should also be considered. Based on this study, risk of myocarditis following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination may be more serious than that reported previously.”
Healthy vaccinee effect where healthy persons use vaccines and do much better generally and frail persons, older are not given vaccines as much given that doctors do not see the benefit. May not benefit etc. This effect is pronounced when engaging in an observational type study and not the power of randomization to spread the confounders between the two comparative groups. This is the thinking though not a purist thinking but you should be guided. So consider that even with this confounder at play, that the risk of myocarditis was so clear for those vaccinated, then it is likely way higher. The researchers also stated this.Issues to consider:1)diagnosis of myocarditis death after SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is based on the physician’s diagnosis2)since myocarditis after SARS-CoV-2 vaccine received media attention, it is likely that physicians paid more attention and reported more3)SMR was only adjusted for age, MMRRs and SMRs were not adjusted for sex and for other cofounding factors such as calendar period, health care worker status, nursing home resident, and comorbidities4)the Japanese researchers have no evidence on healthy vaccinee effect of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in Japan, yet this is a strong issue to consider in any interpretation5)this is more of an exploratory study yet the estimates are potent6)met key criteria for causation (Hill) e.g. (1) temporarily, (2) consistency, (3) strength and (4) coherence of association.7)massive baseline population, very large effect sizes, wide 95% CIs but consistentSMR is the standardized mortality ratio and it is the ratio of observed to expected deaths

Review of spikes in Neonatal Mortality ordered by Scotland; Newborn babies dying at an unexpected higher rate, excess mortality (neonatal mortality) and it is very concerning; Dr. John Campbell

Is this due to the mother taking the COVID gene injection vaccine? The Pfizer and Moderna etc. Are women who are pregnant and who take the vaccine do end up with dead newborns at a higher rate?

DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 21
 
▷  LISTENSAVE
 

Seems first blush examination says it is not due to the COVID virus, not neonatal COVID as the rates of infection and deaths in neonates is incredibly small and rare. So something else. Vaccine? Vaccine from the mother? It is not that the neonates got vaccine, we know that. You have to examine the mothers. Of course you have to examine the mother’s vaccine status.

SOURCE:

VACCINE IMPACT/

11 More Deaths Added this Week to VAERS for New COVID-19 Booster Shots – 37 DEAD 4,415 Cases Since Authorized Sept. 1st

October 21, 2022 3:53 pm

The U.S. Government’s Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) was updated today, and another 1,183 cases were added following the recently authorized Bivalent COVID-19 vaccine boosters from Moderna and Pfizer, including 11 new deaths. There are now 4,415 cases including 37 deaths, 42 permanent disabilities, 420 ER visits, and 154 hospitalizations following the injection of these new booster shots from Pfizer and Moderna. The Bivalent boosters were just authorized by the FDA on September 1, 2022, and then authorized for children on October 12, 2022. The total number for ALL COVID-19 authorized vaccines recorded in VAERS is now 1,442,261 cases, including 31,569 deaths, 59,127 permanent disabilities, and over 180,000 hospitalizations. Dr. Spiro Pantazatos, PhD, an Assistant Professor of Clinical Neurobiology at Columbia University Irving Medical Center and also a Research Scientist at the New York State Psychiatric Institute with a special focus on biomedical informatics, computational neuroimaging, neuroscience, and mental health, recently appeared on the Dr. Drew show and explained how he saw an increase in mortality rates following the COVID-19 mandates in 2021, and co-authored a study documenting his research. A search in the medical literature indexed at the U.S. Government’s National Library of Medicine shows that Dr. Spiro Pantazatos has authored over 40 published studies. While life insurance companies began screaming from the rooftops in the late spring of 2022 about excess mortality rates, Dr. Pantazatos was well ahead of the game, producing a paper that demonstrated this link in October 2021. But nobody wanted to read his findings, and no medical journal would publish the paper. “It was diplomatically rejected by many editors at medical journals,” he told Dr. Drew.

Read More…

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U.S. Deploys 101st Airborne Division to Europe as Russia Warns Ukraine Preparing False Flag Dirty Bomb Attack

October 23, 2022 2:25 pm

With up to 40% of the Ukraine power grid now down and millions of people without electricity as winter sets in, tens of thousands of Ukrainians are trying to flee the country, as the United States appears to be getting ready to take America to war and start engaging Russian forces. Could this be the “October surprise” the Biden Administration has been planning in an effort to affect upcoming elections in November? CBS News reported Friday that the elite “Screaming Eagles,” a light infantry unit from the 101st Airborne’s home base in Fort Campbell, Kentucky, have been deployed to Romania, just a few miles from the Ukraine border. It is reportedly the first time in almost 80 years that the U.S. Army’s 101st Airborne Division has been deployed to Europe, which brings the number of U.S. troops now in Europe up to around 100,000. Meanwhile, in further signs that the conflict in Ukraine is quickly escalating, Russian Defense Minister, Sergey Shoigu, has warned that their intelligence sources claim that Ukraine is getting ready to launch a “false flag” dirty bomb attack in their own country, and then blame it on Russia. There are also reports that China intelligence is picking up similar signals, as they recently ordered the evacuation off all Chinese citizens still in Ukraine. Further evidence that the U.S. is planning to get involved and directly confront Russian forces comes from reports that retired U.S. Army General David Petraeus has been talking to NATO countries to warn that “the United States may lead a multinational coalition against Russia in Ukraine regardless of NATO involvement.”

Read More…

Pro-Vaccine GOP Governors Make Meaningless Statements on COVID Shots as Children in Their States Die and are Crippled Every Day from VaccinesOctober 22, 2022 2:24 pmThe biggest news story this past week in the Alternative Media was the announcement by the CDC that their Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) was recommending that the 2023 childhood and adult immunization schedule include “approved or authorized COVID-19 vaccines.” While here at Health Impact News we obviously vigorously disagree with the ACIP recommendation, this decision has been completely politicized by the Right Wing Alternative media and the Corporate Media outlet Fox News. Since the CDC ACIP voted to include COVID-19 vaccines into the immunization schedule, some Republican Governors, probably taking their cue from Tucker Carlson on Fox News, have made statements to the public to vow “not to institute mandates in their states.” Do any of these governors oppose other vaccines in the CDC schedule that are killing and maiming children? No! ALL of these governors, as well as other Republican politicians, are PRO-VACCINE, and that includes the COVID-19 vaccines. You don’t believe me? Listen to them say so in their own words in this 6-minute video I put together. All of these Republican Governors are pro-vaccine, and every one of them has a record in VAERS of people dying and being injured from the vaccines on the CDC schedule in their state since they have been in office. They have done nothing to stop schools from following the CDC schedule, just as they have done nothing to stop clinics and schools from giving out the EUA COVID-19 vaccines to children, because they believe “parents should have the choice” as to whether or not they should try to kill their child with an experimental vaccine, while at the same time making efforts to make it illegal to kill their unborn child still in the womb. What a bunch of hypocrites! In one case a parent’s choice is illegal to harm a child (abortion), but in the case of COVID-19 bioweapons, it is perfectly legal (although in some cases not recommended) to harm their child with deadly vaccines. What a mockery to the “Pro-life” Republican position, as they try to position themselves against vaccines that are killing and crippling children in their states every single day. If these governors are serious about opposing these dangerous bioweapon shots, they need to stop giving their “Surgeon Generals” all the spotlight to talk (which is ALL they are doing!) about how dangerous the COVID shots are, and start talking to their Attorney Generals about arresting and trying the criminals who run the FDA, CDC, and HHS that have allowed these shots to be inflicted upon the public. Until that happens, they are all still part of the problem, not the solution.Read More…
Sophia Media, LLC
201 Hunters Crossing Blvd.

VACCINE INJURY

Comments – Alberta is deliberately erasing hospital records of vaccine injury…

Robert Hryniak9:09 AM (13 hours ago)
to

This is crazy. If there are vaccine related deaths then let’s face facts and help those in need. Erasing records in Alberta will only serve to cause resentment and anger
https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/alberta-is-deliberately-erasing-hospital/comments

end

From ‘Wildfire Cancers’ to Foot-Long Clots, Dr. Ryan Cole Explains the Dangers of the Spike Protein

Robert Hryniak9:12 AM (13 hours ago)
to

https://www.theepochtimes.com/from-wildfire-cancers-to-foot-long-clots-dr-ryan-cole-explains-the-dangers-of-the-spike-protein_4813813.html

Inbox

end

Important:

Severe COVID-19 outcomes after full vaccination of primary schedule and initial boosters: pooled analysis of national prospective cohort studies of 30 million individuals in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales – The Lancet

Robert Hryniak2:24 PM (33 minutes ago)
to Harvey

MICHAEL EVERY//RABOBANK 

Michael Every on the major topics of the day

END

7. OIL//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS//ELECTRICITY ISSUES/USA//GLOBE

Once December arrives and the new oil embargo begins, Russia will lean on Turkey, India and China for their oil.

(zerohedge)

Russia Leans On Turkey, India, China For Oil Sales Before EU Ban

MONDAY, OCT 24, 2022 – 08:25 AM

By Julian Lee, Bloomberg oil strategist and former senior analyst at the Centre for Global Energy Studies.

The three countries that helped Moscow to maintain crude exports in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine appear to be stepping back into the market for Russian barrels, with Turkey taking a lead role in the latest buying.

A marked increase in the volume of crude on tankers that have yet to signal a final destination makes the task of monitoring Russia’s exports more complicated, but most of those vessels end up in India, with a smaller number heading further east to China. Adding those ships into the calculation shows a steady increase in the combined flow of Russian crude to Turkey, China and India in recent weeks.

Almost all tankers carrying Russian crude that signal destinations such as Port Said, Gibraltar or “for orders” eventually end up in one of those three countries.

Time is running out to deliver crude from Russia’s Baltic ports to China and India before European Union sanctions that will deprive vessels of insurance and other services come into effect on Dec. 5. Tankers have until about Oct. 21 to depart Primorsk or Ust-Luga if they are to reach discharge terminals in eastern China before that deadline.

Flows to China, India and Turkey peaked in June at 2.2 million barrels a day. In the four weeks to Oct. 14 that figure was down by about 350,000 barrels a day. However, shipments to Turkey have risen to the highest level for the year so far, while the volume on tankers yet to show final destinations is now so large, at the equivalent of more than 450,000 barrels a day, that it could send combined shipments to these three countries to new post-invasion highs once their actual destinations become apparent.

Meanwhile, trading houses and refiners are racing to book storage tanks in Rotterdam in the coming months on expectations of a supply crunch after the EU sanctions take effect.

Crude Flows by Destination:

Overall exports rose on a four-week average basis, climbing to the highest since mid-August and exceeding 3 million barrels a day for the first time in five weeks. The increase was driven by flows to Europe, which were higher to all three regions of the continent.

All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. These are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk.

The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export grade. Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies. Transit crude is specifically exempted from EU sanctions on Russia’s seaborne shipments that are due to come into effect in December.

Crude Flows by Destination:

Europe

Russia’s seaborne crude exports to European countries rose for the first time since the beginning of September, increasing to 714,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Oct. 14. Flows were up by 89,000 barrels a day, or 14%, from the period to Oct. 7. These figures do not include shipments to Turkey.

The volume shipped from Russia to northern European countries rose in the four weeks to Oct. 14, making back the previous week’s loss. All shipments went to storage tanks in Rotterdam.

Exports to Mediterranean countries jumped in the four weeks to Oct. 7.  Flows to the region, including Turkey, which is excluded from the European figures at the top of this section, rose to a five-week high — with the volume heading to Turkey at its highest for the year so far.

Combined flows to Bulgaria and Romania rose above 200,000 barrels a day for the first time in seven weeks, with almost all of that volume heading to Bulgaria.

Asia

Shipments to Russia’s Asian customers slipped. The four-week average volume of crude heading from Russia to Asia, plus those on vessels showing no final destination, which typically end up in either India or China, edged lower from a 16-week high. Shipments heading to Asia averaged 1.83 million barrels a day over the four weeks to Oct. 14, with a further 160,000 barrels a day on tankers whose point of discharge is unclear.

All of the tankers carrying crude to unidentified Asian destinations are signaling Port Said or the Suez Canal, with final discharge points unlikely to be apparent until they have passed through the waterway into the Red Sea, at the earliest. Most of those ships end up in India or China, with the occasional vessel heading to other destinations such as Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, or Colombo in Sri Lanka.

Flows by Export Location

Aggregate flows of Russian crude increased by 200,000 barrels a day, or 7%, in the seven days to Oct. 14, compared with the previous week. Flows were unchanged from all regions except the Pacific. Figures exclude volumes from Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade.

Export Revenue

Inflows to the Kremlin’s war chest from its crude-export duty increased, rising by $9 million to $134 million in the seven days to Oct. 14. The four-week average income also edged higher, gaining $2 million to $145 million.

At $6.06 a barrel, the export duty rate in October is the lowest per barrel rate since February 2021, according to Bloomberg calculations using figures published by the Russian Ministry of Finance.

Duty rates will fall again in November, dropping to $5.83 a barrel, taking them to their lowest level since January 2021. The Urals discount to Brent widened during the latest calculation period, which ran from Sept. 15 to Oct. 14, compared with the previous one, to stand at about $25.50 a barrel.

Origin-to-Location Flows

The following charts show the number of ships leaving each export terminal and the destinations of crude cargoes from the four export regions.

A total of 30 tankers loaded 22 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Oct. 14, vessel-tracking data and port agent reports show. That’s up by 1.4 million barrels. Destinations are based on where vessels signal they are heading at the time of writing, and some will almost certainly change as voyages progress. All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade.

The total volume on ships loading Russian crude from Baltic terminals was unchanged at 1.25 million barrels a day. Shipments to Europe from Primorsk and Ust-Luga rose to the highest in six weeks.

Shipments from Novorossiysk in the Black Sea were also unchanged from the previous week.

Arctic shipments, too, were unchanged, with three vessels departing Murmansk in the week to Oct. 14.

The Pacific was the only region to show higher shipments in the week to Oct. 14, with flows reaching a four-week high of 1.04 million barrels a day. Nine cargoes of ESPO crude were loaded, with all but one heading to China. The other ship is heading to India. A cargo of Sakhalin Blend crude is also heading to China.

END

8 EMERGING MARKET& AUSTRALIA ISSUES & OTHER EMERGING NATIONS

end

Your early  currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:30 AM

Euro/USA 0.98143 DOWN    0.0044 /EUROPE BOURSES // ALL GREEN 

USA/ YEN 149.25   UP  1.865 /NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN TOTALLY COLLAPSES//INTERVENTION FAILS

GBP/USA 1.1279 UP   0.0001

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 61.37 PTS OR 2.03% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED  DOWN 1030.43 POINTS OR 6.36% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  1.58%    // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 1030.43 PTS OR 6.36%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED  DOWN 61.37 PTS OR 2.03%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.58% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  DOWN 84.32 PTS OR 0.31%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1648.30

silver:$19.20

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 112.34 UP .37  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

 MONDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.33% DOWN 14  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.249% DOWN  0 AND 0/10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.44%// DOWN 12 in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.786  UP 1   points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +2.34%  DOWN 10 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 0.98758 UP .0018   or 18 basis points//INTERVENTION

USA/Japan: 148.76 UP 1.277 OR YEN DOWN 128 basis points/INTERVENTION FAILED

Great Britain/USA 1.12196 UP .0018 OR  18 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0096 OR 96 BASIS pts  to 1.3717

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED ..(DOWN) AT 7.2636

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 7.3135

TURKISH LIRA:  18.60  EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.249

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3  IN basis points from FRIDAY at  4.236% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   4.367 UP 6  in basis points 

Your closing USA dollar index, 111.89 DOWN 10 PTS   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 52.23 PTS OR  0.75%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 212.38 POINTS OR 1.67%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 102.96PTS OR 1.71% 

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 143.80 OR  1.91%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 442.43PTS OR  2,05%

WTI Oil price 84.12  12: EST

Brent Oil:  93.04   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   RUBLE RISES TO:  61.18 UP 0  AND 11/100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3415

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 0.98750UP .0017     OR  17  BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.1281 UP  .0002 or  2 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.7465% 

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148.94 up 1.45//YEN DOWN 1.451 BASIS PTS//CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION AND IT FAILED

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3719 UP 0.0095  (CDN dollar, DOWN 95 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 84.81

Brent OIL:  93.35

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS pts to 4.238%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS PTS to 4.382%

USA dollar index:111.92 DOWN 0.06

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.60

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  61.18  UP 0 AND  11/100 ROUBLES 

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 417.06 PTS OR 1.34 % 

NASDAQ 100 UP 119.93 PTS OR 1.06%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 29.96 UP 0.27 PTS (0.91)%

GLD: $153.67 DOWN 0.48 OR 0.31%

SLV/ $17.68  DOWN $0.08 OR 0.45%

end)

USA trading day in Graph Form

US Stocks & UK Bonds Soar As China Chunders, Yen-tervention Fails

MONDAY, OCT 24, 2022 – 04:00 PM

Today’s market moves were very much specific as geopolitical and macro-economic chaos reigned…

It appeared like BoJ stepped in rather inelegantly last night as the Asian FX markets started trading (in an attempt to use the thin markets to extend Friday’s intervention liftathon). It worked for around 15 minutes… and then yen started to fall and by the end of the US session had erased all of that yen-tervention and erased half of Friday’s gains

Source: Bloomberg

Chinese markets shit the bed, technically speaking, overnight as Xi’s new era appears anything but more open.

Chinese tech stocks were a total bloodbath today with Nasdaq’s Golden Dragon index down a stunning 16% (biggest daily drop ever) to its lowest since Dec 2012…

Source: Bloomberg

The offshore yuan plunged to new record lows (breaking down below the RMB Fix lower bound)…

Source: Bloomberg

And all that after they announced better than expected GDP growth and Industrial production.

Next up was the UK as Rishi Sunak became the new UK PM (by default), which appeared to reassure British capital markets as bond yields tumbled (2Y gilt yields plunged 37bps – the biggest daily drop since 1992!), but we do note that Cable was modestly lower today…

Source: Bloomberg

And then came the US… where PMIs plunged into contraction and Janet Yellen told MSNBC she “can’t rule out the risk” of a recession (is she a biologist?)… which of course is great news for stocks.

Small Caps underperformed, but the rest of the majors accelerated higher on the day with The Dow leading. We did see ‘Dump Capital’ appear around 1530ET though, which wiped some lipstick off this pig. Nasdaq had ytet another day of being down 1% and then being up 1%…

Today’s melt-up should not have been a surprise to readers since Goldman warned “the pain trade is to the upside”

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfdGltZWxpbmVfbGlzdCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOlsibGlua3RyLmVlIiwidHIuZWUiLCJ0ZXJyYS5jb20uYnIiLCJ3d3cubGlua3RyLmVlIiwid3d3LnRyLmVlIiwid3d3LnRlcnJhLmNvbS5iciJdLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdGltZWxpbmVfMTIwMzQiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoidHJlYXRtZW50IiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd190d2VldF9lZGl0X2JhY2tlbmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib24iLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3JlZnNyY19zZXNzaW9uIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9uIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19jaGluX3BpbGxzXzE0NzQxIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6ImNvbG9yX2ljb25zIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd190d2VldF9yZXN1bHRfbWlncmF0aW9uXzEzOTc5Ijp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6InR3ZWV0X3Jlc3VsdCIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0Zndfc2Vuc2l0aXZlX21lZGlhX2ludGVyc3RpdGlhbF8xMzk2MyI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJpbnRlcnN0aXRpYWwiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2V4cGVyaW1lbnRzX2Nvb2tpZV9leHBpcmF0aW9uIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6MTIwOTYwMCwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19kdXBsaWNhdGVfc2NyaWJlc190b19zZXR0aW5ncyI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdmlkZW9faGxzX2R5bmFtaWNfbWFuaWZlc3RzXzE1MDgyIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6InRydWVfYml0cmF0ZSIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdHdlZXRfZWRpdF9mcm9udGVuZCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1584625006838947843&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fmarkets%2Fus-stocks-uk-bonds-soar-china-chunders-yen-tervention-fails&sessionId=de1556e67451a2c489a5881766057c7cb5ce64d9&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=1c23387b1f70c%3A1664388199485&width=550px

TSLA bucked the trend of the day (tumbling in the pre and early market, down to its lowest level since mid-2021, below $200 briefly), but was bid all afternoon and ended just over 1% lower…

But, we note that the market’s expectations for Fed rates shifted notably hawkishly, erasing some of Friday’s dovish dive (odds for a 75bps hike in Dec rose to 40% from 30%)…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were volatile intraday but ended higher with the long-end underperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

Most notably, long-term inflation breakevens (market expectations) soared in the last week…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar managed modest gains on the day, but remains well down from Friday’s pre-yentervention puke…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin is higher from Friday’s close after a surge in buying yesterday early afternoon (which was sold into)…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices tumbled overnight (perhaps on the back of Xi’s ‘crowning’ signaling the likelihood of ZeroCOVID policies continuing) then rallied back to a modest loss with WTI just below $85…

Gold was very modestly lower on the day with futures hovering around $1655, holding most of Friday’s gains…

Finally, as Bloomberg details, the value of the yen against its peers – adjusted for inflation – has slumped to a 52-year low, as widening interest-rate differentials between Japan and other major economies continued to pile pressure on the currency.

A gauge of the real effective exchange rate slumped 3% in September, based on the most recent data from the Bank of Japan and Bank for International Settlements.

The decline has been driven in part by outflows from Japan owing to the lack of attractive investment opportunities locally, according to Takuya Kanda, general manager at Gaitame.com Research Institute in Tokyo.

end

I) / LATE MORNING//  TRADING//

AFTERNOON TRADING//

ii) USA DATA/

US PMI’s plunge into contraction; new orders very weak

(zerohedge)

US PMIs Plunge Into ‘Contraction’ In Early October, New Orders Weakest Since COVID Lockdowns

MONDAY, OCT 24, 2022 – 09:54 AM

Following September’s surprise rebound, analysts expected US preliminary October PMIs to be mixed this morning (with Manufacturing slowing while Services ticks slightly higher), but they were very wrong.

Both US Manufacturing and Services surveys showed significant decline in early October, both tumbling into contraction.

  • US Manufacturing 49.9 (contraction), below 51.0 exp and down from 52.0 prior
  • US Services 46.6 (contraction), below 49.5 exp and down from 49.3 prior.

Despite better than expected macro signals…

Source: Bloomberg

New orders fell back into contraction territory following a marginal expansion in September. The decrease in client demand was solid and the sharpest since May 2020.

The drop sent the composite index back down to 47.3, in line with the weakness in EU and UK…

Source: Bloomberg

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

The US economic downturn gathered significant momentum in October, while confidence in the outlook also deteriorated sharply. The decline was led by a downward lurch in services activity, fuelled by the rising cost of living and tightening financial conditions. While output in manufacturing remains more resilient for now, October saw a steep drop in demand for goods, meaning current output is only being maintained by firms eating into backlogs of previously placed orders. Clearly this is unsustainable absent of a revival in demand, and it’s no surprise to see firms cutting back sharply on their input buying to prepare for lower output in coming months.

“One upside of this drop in input buying has been a further alleviation of supply constraints, which alongside the stronger dollar have helped cool price pressures in the manufacturing sector.

“Although price pressures picked up slightly in the service sector due to high food, energy and staff costs, as well as rising borrowing costs, increased competitive forces meant average prices charged for services grew at only a fractionally faster rate. Combined with the easing of price pressures in the goods-producing sector, this adds to evidence that consumer price inflation should cool in coming months.

The surveys therefore present a picture of the economy at increased risk of contracting in the fourth quarter at the same time that inflationary pressures remain stubbornly high. However, there are clearly signs that weakening demand is helping to moderate the overall rate of inflation, which should continue to fall in the coming months, especially if interest rates continue to rise.”

All of which implies yet another quarter of contraction…

Just don’t call it a recession.

end

-END-

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

Good indicator that they uSA economy is faltering: Am Express bad loan provision rising and spreading to the upper income consumers

(zerohedge)

Soaring AmEx Bad Loan Provisions Confirm Rot Spreading To Upper-Income Consumers

SUNDAY, OCT 23, 2022 – 09:33 PM

Investors may have been ok with banks reporting a jump in bad loan provisions, but when it comes to credit card companies, they are in full-blown “Death Con 3” mode.

On Friday, American Express – which traditionally targets the upper classes of US society – tumbled the most in four months after the credit card processing giant set aside much more for bad loans than analysts expected, suggesting the fastest ever surge in interest rates is adversely impacting customers’ ability to pay their bills.

Provisions for souring loans were $778 million in the quarter, worse than the $573 million analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting, and the most since Q2 2022 when the US economy was still in lockdown due to covid. The move should probably not have come as a surprise after AmEx warned investors for months that charge-offs would rise as consumers begin borrowing more in the wake of the pandemic. The net write-off rate jumped to 1.1% from 0.8% a year ago.

“They’re just reverting to somewhat higher levels, exactly as we would have expected,” Chief Financial Officer Jeff Campbell said in an interview.

The unexpected surge in bad loans came even as the company reported another quarter of year-over-year spending growth and strong credit performance, not to mention an impressive 24% increase in year-over-year revenue growth: the net write-off rate on card-member loans was unchanged from the second quarter, and the rate of card-member loan payments 30-plus-days past due was up to 0.9% from 0.7%. They remain better than many other card-lenders’ metrics, even at big banks that also tend toward an affluent customer base.

There was more good news: while additional provisions crimped profits, earnings per share still topped estimates. AmEx said it added a record number of Platinum customers in the third quarter, pushing revenue up 24% to an all-time high and prompting executives to boost their profit forecast. The credit-card giant said it now expects per-share profit will be above the $9.25 to $9.65 range it previously expected.

AmEx also said spending on travel – which generates more lucrative transactions – jumped 57% during the third quarter. But overall volume on the firm’s network increased 19% to $394.4 billion, missing the $401.7 billion average estimate.

According to the company, Millennial and Gen Z-aged consumers were more than 60% of new proprietary card acquisitions in the quarter. It said that without giving them the option of using revolving debt, that group may have started out with a competitor’s card before later turning to a higher-fee, higher-reward Amex charge card. And these are good customers: Millennial and Gen-Z U.S. consumer spending grew nearly 40% year-over-year in the third quarter, almost twice the rate of Gen X and more than triple the rate of baby boomers.

For now, AmEx and its rivals are benefiting from historically high prices. That’s because the firm takes a slice of the purchase price each time a consumer uses one of its cards at checkout. But investors are concerned that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to raise interest rates and tamp down inflation may spark a recession and lead to higher card losses even as overall card volumes crater.

So far though, as the WSJ notes, credit is the dog that has not yet barked, especially for higher-income consumers. But when even the premium spender-targeting AmEx warns that the dam is starting to crack, not even the NBER will be able to avoid the reality of US recession.

III B    USA COMMODITY PROBLEMS//INFLATION WATCH

A real problem for the uSA economy

Barges On Drought-Stricken Mississippi River “Dead In The Water”, Causing Severe Supply Chain Issues

MONDAY, OCT 24, 2022 – 04:20 PM

Authored by Allen Stein via The Epoch Times,

Jeff Worsham is a realist regarding the weather because he believes what he sees.

That the regional drought is a bad one, getting worse, is beyond dispute. The Mississippi River is at the lowest it’s been in decades, he said.

Worse, the barges are backing up because of it, running aground, and wreaking havoc on the regional supply chain.

“There’s no relief in sight as far as rainfall,” said Worsham, port manager of Poinsett Rice & Grain’s loading facility in Osceola, Arkansas.

When will it rain next?

Worsham said, “Who knows?”

Jeff Worsham, port manager of Poinsett Rice & Grain in Osceola, Ark., said the Mississippi River is at the lowest it’s been in decades due to an ongoing drought wreaking havoc with commercial barge lines. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

Loaded at about 65 percent capacity with soybeans to reduce weight, the barges at the Osceola facility have been “dead in the water” for days in a jagged queue, blocked by a single barge that became stuck in the shallow mouth of the port.

Unprecedented Times

“I’ve never seen it this bad,” said Worsham, who’s been with the company for over 20 years. “We had water [levels] close to this in 2012. But it was August, and it wasn’t the harvesting season. It wasn’t a big deal for us.”

At the height of the corn and soybean harvest, and with tons of products waiting to be shipped, Worsham remains optimistic.

“A lot of the soybeans have been stored on the barges. We’ll be down a little bit on volume and stretched out. We’ll be able to get the bushels [out]. It’s just going to take longer,” he told The Epoch Times.

Barge loader Raul Rivas walks to the loading station at Poinsett Rice Grain on Oct. 20, 2022. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

Worsham said a tow boat would eventually drag the stuck barge to deeper water and free up the other barges. He said until then, nothing can get in or out of the port—and then the phone rang.

It was Worsham’s boss asking for an update.

“It’s more than hard,” Worsham told his supervisor. “They would get them [out] if they could … I don’t know what else to do.”

The situation is no less challenging with other competing barge lines, Worsham said.

In recent weeks, hundreds of barges have become stalled in the receding Mississippi, caught in the lower depths. In early October, some 2,000 barges reportedly clogged the channels in long pileups along the river south of Memphis.

The barges need around a nine-foot depth to navigate. The problem is that the water levels have fallen so low in many places even the tugboats are getting stuck.

Barges sit in the port facility at Poinsett Rice & Grain in Osceola, Ark., on Oct. 20, 2022. Behind the barges, the river tributary’s water line has been receding for months in the continuing drought. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

Near the Gulf of Mexico, the ocean has begun seeping into the weakening river, threatening the water supply. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is working to build a temporary levee to fend off the ocean’s slow advance north.

Situation ‘Grave’

As the nation’s second-largest river, the Mississippi stretches 2,340 miles from its source at Lake Itasca in northwestern Minnesota to the Gulf. The river provides easy access for midwestern farmers looking to ship their products cheaply and efficiently.

Commercial barges each year account for about 418 million tons of goods moved between U.S. ports along the Mississippi River system. Nationally, it’s around 700 million tons.

But as water levels continue to fall, it allows less room for the barges to navigate and more opportunities to become stuck, said Ben Lerner, vice president of public affairs for the American Waterways Operators, a national trade association.

Lerner said the Mississippi River at a historically low level presents a significant challenge for the nation’s supply chain.

“In some spots in the river, it is at its lowest level since 1988, so it’s a real challenge for the supply chain and our industry,” Lerner told The Epoch Times.

Barges laden with agricultural products now have longer waiting times to deliver their cargos while in transit, causing back-ups along the river.

Lerner said a standard barge has 16 rail cars or 70 semi trucks carrying capacity, but it’s cheaper and more efficient.

“The bottom line is the American barge industry is a major component of the global and American supply chain. If we can’t move cargo on the Mississippi efficiently, that ultimately has far-reaching economic implications,” he said.

“I don’t want to understate the gravity of the situation we’re dealing with—the tremendous strain on the supply chain.”

Barge loader Raul Rivas (R), deckhand Clifton Brown (L), and other workers at Poinsett Rice & Grain in Osceola, Ark., walk to the loading docks on Oct. 20, 2022. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

At its widest point, the Mississippi River is over seven miles wide, allowing for as many as 42 lashed barges to operate, pushed by a single tow boat.

“We’ve got a river now that’s shallower and narrower than it’s ever been,” Lerner told The Epoch Times.

Many commercial barge lines have reduced loads by as much as 50 percent to compensate for the shallower water. Other barge lines have switched to shipping via the more costly and less efficient rail and trucking systems.

“The more shippers switch to rail or truck to move their cargo, the more congested our railways and highways ultimately become,” Lerner said.

It also translates into higher costs for the nation’s agricultural producers, 92 percent of whose output travels through the Mississippi River Basin.

About 60 percent of grain and 54 percent of soybeans for U.S. export rely on barges for delivery to foreign and domestic markets, according to FreightWaves.

The market research site ReportLinker.com projected that the U.S. barge transportation market should grow from $25.17 billion in 2021 to around $39.9 billion by 2028 due to increased demand, infrastructure, and investment.

Poinsett Rice & Grain deck hand Clifton Brown points to where the water level used to be at the loading port near the Mississippi River on Oct. 20, 2022. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

“The system needs water,” said Lerner, confident that the commercial barge industry is resilient and accustomed to operating in a crisis.

‘Game Time’ For Farmers

“It’s a significant challenge for U.S. agriculture and farmers to be successful and profitable,” noted Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition.

The organization comprises 13 state soybean boards, including the American Soybean Association and the United Soybean Board, encompassing 85 percent of soybean production.

Steenhoek said while farmers are geographically distant from coastal ports, they enjoy easy access to inland waterways like the Mississippi, Ohio, and Illinois rivers.

“It’s game time for agriculture,” Steenhoek said. “When the system operates as normal, there’s no more effective way of moving commodities long distances in an economical manner” than commercial barges.

“When the system goes awry, it poses a significant hardship.”

The problem going into 2022 has been the lack of rain and snowmelt to replenish inland rivers to allow the ground to become saturated ahead of the spring planting season.

A large pile of beans lies under a tarp at Consolidated Grain & Barge in West Memphis, Ark., as seen from the highway on Oct. 20, 2022. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

While crops this year have benefited from the available moisture, very little has made its way into the water system, contributing to lower river levels.

“When you have a [barge] grounding, it’s a major effort to alleviate,” Steenhoek said. “It shuts down the river. So you have to resort to putting less freight per barge.”

Steenhoek said in the case of soybeans, for every 12 inches of lost channel depth, a standard barge must shed 5,000 bushels—about 136 tons—to stay afloat. He said it means that fewer barges can operate in tandem, resulting in the industry-imposed maximum of 25 lashed barges per shipment.

“You don’t have your optimal route available to you. It still will find a way—maybe not as much as normal—not as efficiently as normal,” Steenhoek said. “Whenever you have a disruption like this, those costs get passed on. It adds a lot of costs [and] the farmer will bear a lot of that.

“Some of it’s going to be borne by the shipper. It adds insult to injury when you’ve got challenges with our inland waterway system.”

Other barge lines, such as Consolidated Grain and Barge Co. in West Memphis, have begun storing beans in large outdoor piles under tarps in the wake of the barge crisis.

Steenhoek compared switching transportation modes from barge to rail and truck to a garden hose attached to a fire hydrant, where “you’ve got lots of [product] volume” and less efficient ways to move it.

A towboat sits in its dock along the Mississippi River in Memphis, Tenn., on Oct. 20, 2022. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

“When you’re in that scenario, it’s not efficient, and it’s not as cost-effective. There are consequences,” he said. “What’s particularly inopportune right now and consequential is how comprehensive it is—not just one part of our nation. It’s the whole [transportation] system” under stress.

Worse Before It Gets Better

Poinsett Rice & Grain operates with a fleet of 100 barges, each of which carries around 85,000 bushels of rice, soybeans, or corn to ports along the river. Those volumes are about 35,000 bushels less in the drought to reduce weight and increase floating capacity.

“Hopefully, we will be able to continue operations. It’s gotten a lot worse [but] we’re still loading,” Worsham said.

The company, which ships around five or six million bushels per year, had expected to ship eight million bushels this year, given the robust harvest.

Worsham said that number is down to around three million bushels.

“We’ll probably match last year’s volume” of around four million bushels.”

Poinsett Rice & Grain barge loader Raul Rivas points to the long line of barges awaiting delivery of soybeans on Oct. 20, 2022. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

Barge loader Raul Rivas said the barge logjam at the Poinsett facility is a logistics headache.

“We can’t load that many barges right now. The traffic right here can’t get in and out. Right now, this will be our last barge for a while,” Rivas said.

Typically, Rivas’ crew will load three barges daily with soybeans, rice, or corn from loading towers.

“There isn’t much we can do. Everything we’ve got is overstocked or on the ground. We got one [barge] stuck last night. We had to get to the tugboat at least until it broke free. Then we finished loading [the barge],” Rivas said.

“Supposedly, when it gets down to a negative 12 [feet level], that’s when they’re supposed to shut the barges and boats down.”

A grain loader operator awaits instructions at Poinsett Rice & Grain in Osceola, Ark., on Oct. 20, 2022. (Allan Stein/The Epoch Times)

Poinsett deck hand Clifton Brown said that dock workers have been “running into a lot of problems” with the low water levels, now going on two months.

“That’s about the worst of it—[barges] getting stuck. It’s pretty rough on us just loading barges right now. See that barge over there, stuck on the bank, on the corner?”

Brown pointed toward the far end of the port at the former water line where that “used to be to those trees.”

In the current drought, Brown also remains positive, saying it’s only a matter of time before the Mississippi is back up and running as the water level fluctuates.

“We’ll be down for another week or so until the river comes back up. Everything is good.”

end

SWAMP STORIES

And rightfully they should halt this ridiculous plan

(zerohedge)

Appeals Court Halts Biden’s Student Loan Forgiveness Program

FRIDAY, OCT 21, 2022 – 08:00 PM

Just one day after the Supreme Court shot down a Wisconsin group’s bid to block President Biden’s student loan relief program, another group led by six-GOP attorneys general was handed a win. 

After a lower court dismissed the states’ bid to halt the program, the US Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit may give them a second chance. While they consider the case (and whether to issue a longer-standing injunction), the court has temporarily blocked the student loan scheme just days after millions of borrowers began applying.

The order instructs the Biden administration not to begin discharging debt under the relief effort, while the Biden administration has until 6pm EST on Monday to respond.

The six Republican-led states — Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and South Carolina — are trying to block Biden’s plan, and have argued that the Biden administration doesn’t have the power to issue nationwide debt relief without Congress. They’re also claiming that the policy would harm private companies that service some federal student loans by reducing their business.

end

KING REPORT

 King Report October 24, 2022 Issue 6871Independent View of the News
Elements of the Fed conceivably went political on Friday, issuing and leaking dovish remarks ahead of the US Midterm Elections.  And the Bank of Japan massively intervened in JGBs and the yen.
 
The Bank of Japan announced another emergency bond buying operation on Friday.
 
Japan’s inflation hits 8-year high in test of BOJ’s dovish policySept core CPI rises 3.0% yr/yr, matches forecastCore consumer inflation stays above BOJ goal for 6th month  https://t.co/D6fU9Vlblo 
The yen/$ hit 151.95 at 8:39 ET.  It retreated a tad and then traded sideways until a confirmed Bank of Japan intervention near 10:36 ET pushed the yen/$ to 146.23 by 11:54 ET.
 
@OccupytheFeds: Another $11B+ USD “liquidity swap” to the Swiss with smaller swaps to ECB and now Bank of Japan! Where is Congress with some questioning and oversight? Where is the media on this?! https://twitter.com/OccupytheFeds/status/1583224267759489024/photo/1
 
ESZs rallied sharply near 9 ET when the WSJ’s purported Fed whisper, Nick Timiraos, posted this story:
 
Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes – WSJ 8:52 ET.
Some officials have begun signaling their desire both to slow down the pace of increases soon and to stop raising rates early next year to see how their moves this year are slowing the economy…
    One possible solution would be for Fed officials to approve a half-point increase in December, while using their new economic projections to show they might lift rate somewhat higher in 2023 than they projected last month…  https://t.co/vPMSXDjHL8
 
@NickTimiraos: The Fed is barreling towards a fourth straight 75-basis-point rate rise at the November FOMC meeting. That meeting could serve as a critical staging ground for future plans, including whether and how to step down to 50 basis points in December.
 
The market expects the Fed to hike rates 75bps on November 2 and 50bps on December 16.  However, by averring that ‘some’ Fed officials want to slow hikes, Nick gave the usual suspects an excuse to proclaim, for the umpteenth time, a Fed pivot is nigh.  Which dovish Fed officials blew in Nick’s ear?  Qui bono?
 
The ESZ Nick-rally hit a peak at 10:09 ET; they then sank 50 handles by 11:02 ET.  ESZs then soared to a new daily high of 3732.75 on Mary Daly’s dovish (and political) comments. 
 
Daly Says Fed Should Start Planning for Smaller Rate Hikes
“It should at least be something we’re considering at this point, but the data haven’t been cooperating,” Daly said Friday in a fireside chat hosted by the University of California Berkeley. At the November meeting, “we might find ourselves, and the markets have certainly priced this in, with another 75 basis-point increase, but I would really recommend people don’t take that away as, it’s 75 forever.”…
https://news.yahoo.com/daly-says-fed-start-planning-171000684.html
 
SF Fed President Mary Daly’s 11:30 ET speech at Berkley on Friday HighlightsWant to avoid an ‘unforced downturn’ by overtighteningSees Funds Rate Rising to 4.5% to 5% (expected by known universe)Rental inflation is starting to slowIn my judgement ‘more is needed’ for restrictive territory but can’t overtightenWe are close to neutral rateUS labor market is very strong nowPrudent policy is to be data dependent (like ignoring inflation data for over a year?)The Fed should plan to step down from 75bps hikes, but we’re not there yet 
Fed’s Williams says still difficult to find workers in U.S. Economy – Reuters   11:50 ET
Finding workers remains a challenge in the U.S. economy, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Friday. “In the current environment, filling jobs can be a challenge,” Williams said in prepared remarks for a speech in Hudson, New York. “Many are struggling to hire people, especially at the entry level in construction, nursing, and manufacturing,” he said, adding that “the skills gap is a big obstacle.”  https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-williams-says-still-difficult-find-workers-us-economy-2022-10-21/
 
Bullard Says Strong Job Market Gives Fed Room to Raise Rates – BBG 12:12 ET
“The job market is extremely strong…That gives the Fed some leeway to fight the inflation problem now while we can” and get inflation back to the 2% target “relatively quickly.”
 
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly both stressed the need to keep tightening policy, while suggesting more caution in 2023 https://t.co/FNOwPxrCJG
 
After a modest retreat on Bullard’s remarks, ESZs and stocks zoomed to the moon, abetted by a gamma squeeze on expiry October calls and yet another Fed pivot sighting.  Though traders went gaga on stocks on the latest Fed pivot, bonds remained solidly negative.
 
USZs trading modestly lower during early Asian trading but steadily declined until they hit a low of 118 6/32 at 9:13 ET.  After a surge to 119 15/32 at 10:13 on the umpteenth Fed pivot narrative, USZs retreated.  When they got within a few ticks of the low a modest bounce appeared on Mary Daly.  
 
While the DJIA was +665 points and ESZs were +78.00 near 15:05 ET, USZs were -1 14/32.
 
Chicago Fed President Evans said rates should be above 4.5% in early 2023 and remain there for a while. Despite Fed officials’ universal and persistent assertions of holding rates flat for a while before any pivot, numerous pundits proclaimed, for the umpteenth time, that the Fed will cut rates in 2023.
 
Is it just a coincidence that dovish Fed stories surfaced on October expiration?  Qui bono?
 
On Friday, did liberal Fed officials try to aid and abet Dems ahead of the Midterm Elections?  The Fed in now in a blackout period until after the November 1-2 FOMC soiree.   So, other Fed officials cannot refute Daly’s remarks and Nick’s sources.  Now, most everything is about the Midterm Elections.
 
Joe boasted about his economic record and trashed Republicans in a speech 20 minutes after Daly spoke.
 
@greg_price11: Biden on the midterms: “The polls have been all over the place. I think we’re going to see one more shift back to our side in the closing days because we’re seeing the good news on the economy.”  https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1583485500400500736
 
@townhallcom: Joe Biden accuses Republicans of wanting to “crash the economy.”
https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1583484265790345218
 
Biden warns Republicans will ‘explode the deficit’ if they retake Congress
https://www.ft.com/content/1cadde08-f216-4325-8172-fcbe11f1c5ee
 
The Fed is in a box for the November 2 FOMC Communique.  If it hints or speaks the least bit dovish, it will be viewed as a political gift for Dems.  The Fed would look extremely political.  A dovish Fed on November 2 would boost stocks, but any Fed action only 6 days before the Midterm Election will have ZERO effect on voters.  It will, however, outrage Republicans that are likely to be in control of Congress.
 
A Fed President Spoke at an Invite-Only, Off-the-Record Bank Client Event
James Bullard, who leads the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, appeared at a Citigroup forum last week in Washington. Reporters were not invited…
   He appeared behind closed doors and in front of Wall Street investors at a critical juncture for markets, when every comment a central banker makes has the potential to move stocks and bonds. It gave the attendees a behind-the-scenes snapshot into the thinking of a voting Fed policymaker and Citi a possible chance to profit from his comments, inasmuch as clients may use the bank’s services in hopes of receiving similar access in the future.  “This is not normal,” said Narayana Kocherlakota, a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. With a bank’s clients involved, he added, “the optics are terrible.”… https://t.co/YXSawvOUb0
 
St. Louis Fed to ‘think differently’ about private events after Citi forum
The New York Times first reported Bullard’s appearance at the event, which it noted was unpaid but might conflict with Fed communications rules that discourage Fed involvement in events that offer a “prestige advantage” to profit-making enterprises…
    Still, the St. Louis Fed posted a transcript of his remarks to the Citi Macro Forum on its website and added that “we are listening to the commentary around this and will think differently about this in the future.” A review of the transcript showed that Bullard’s comments were in line with his public remarks.
https://www.stltoday.com/business/local/st-louis-fed-to-think-differently-about-private-events-after-citi-forum/article_ed6c22be-3015-5156-83c6-3968b2050232.html
 
Biden officials are discussing whether to subject Elon Musk’s ventures to national security reviews, including the deal for Twitter and Starlink https://t.co/SZ8XAI7Z2d
 
Yes, Virginia, leftists, and Team Biden fascists so dread losing their social media monopoly that they are considering thwarting Musk’s buyout of Twitter.
 
@AmFirebrand: Tucker on regime investigating Elon Musk’s Twitter deal: “For the Biden administration, this is an existential problem. They cannot tolerate a free and open internet. Censorship is the only thing that allows neoliberal leaders to stay in power. They can’t have free speech.”
https://twitter.com/AmFirebrand/status/1583619717709066240
 
Team Biden has been withholding illegal immigration numbers ahead of the Midterm Elections.
 
Former border officials vow to release illegal migrant numbers by Tuesday if Biden admin won’t
DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and CBP Commissioner Chris Magnus are required to release the numbers weekly and that if the numbers are not published by Tuesday, the former officials will do it themselves… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/former-border-officials-vow-release-illegal-migrant-numbers-biden-admin-wont
 
@BillFOXLA: In a blatant Friday late night news dump, CBP has released the September border numbers, revealing there were 227,547 migrant encounters, the highest Sept. in DHS history.
FY’22 ended with 2,378,944 encounters, also the highest ever, & doesn’t include gotaways. @FoxNews
 
@Breaking911: After declaring a state of emergency, NYC unveils shelter for ‘single adult men’ illegal migrants with couches, TVs, Xboxes & 24/7 food & drink “The meals are all culturally appropriate—it is South American fare,” Emergency Mgmt Commissioner Zach Iscol said.
https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1582954584372555776
 
Record 2.4 million migrants illegally crossed border in FY2022, almost 4 million total under Biden
In September, the number of illegal migrant encounters at the border was 227,547, a 12% increase over August…  https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/border-encounters-reach-record-nearly-24-million-fy2022-over-4-million
 
@BP_Rising: For those who believe “Fed Pivot” is their savior, below is a nice dose of reality (On average, stocks decline for 14 months after a Fed pivot). Keep in mind that inflation is much more rampant, debt much more gargantuan, and super bubble more monstrous this time around.  https://twitter.com/BP_Rising/status/1583545175262969856
 
@charliebilello: The 6-month growth rate in the Leading Economic Index fell further into negative territory in September, down to levels that were signaling recession in 2020, 2008, and 2001
https://t.co/Py6ZJpLvNS
 
Positive aspects of previous session
Massive BoJ intervention in JGBs and the yen plus Fed verbal intervention drove stocks to the moon
 
Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds declined sharply despite BoJ and Fed intervention
Elements within the Fed have gone political ahead of the Midterm Elections
 
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How long will the effects of the BoJ intervention last?
 
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up
 
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3719.35
Previous session High/Low3757.89; 3647.42
 
Reuters: Pfizer’s plan to as much as quadruple U.S. prices for its COVID-19 vaccine next year…
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizer-covid-vaccine-price-hike-seen-giving-revenue-boost-years-2022-10-21/
 
Doctor rips White House shielding COVID vaccine data as CDC OKs shot for immunization schedules: Shame on them – The addition of the COVID vaccine marks the first of its kind to be added to the CDC’s list without offering clinical data to support its benefit, Makary told “America Reports.”… https://t.co/wL1BteCOCT
 
@SKMorefield: Dr. Janette Nesheiwat to Tucker Carlson: “There’s no good reason to have a vaccine that can’t stop disease, can’t stop transmission … on the childhood schedule … What will that do, help reduce a sniffle? … This vote was irresponsible and illogical.”
https://twitter.com/SKMorefield/status/1583258319434973184
 
Republican governors pledge to fight children’s COVID vaccine mandate, Dems largely silent https://t.co/1fL3I98Cps
 
GOP governors push back as CDC adds COVID vax to immunization schedule despite data on risk to kids – New research finds high post-vaccination hospitalization rate in kids under 5, heart inflammation rates in 12-15 that far exceed their peak COVID hospitalization rate. (Follow the science)
https://justthenews.com/government/state-houses/gop-governors-candidates-rebuff-addition-covid-vaccines-childhood
 
Fox: CDC Director Rochelle Walensky tests positive for COVID-19 month after getting updated booster shot… In September, Walensky said that boosters would provide broad protection against sublineages… https://www.foxnews.com/health/cdc-director-rochelle-walensky-tests-positive-covid-19-month-getting-updated-booster-shot
 
@DrEliDavid: CDC director today: Just tested positive for Covid (5x vaxxed!!!) CDC Director a year ago: “Vaccinated people do not carry the virus and don’t get sick 🤡 https://t.co/3lVAezIEHd
 
Amoxicillin, Common Antibiotic to Treat Infections in Children, in Short Supply in US
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-21/popular-antibiotic-amoxicillin-in-short-supply-in-us-hik-teva-novn
 
Student-loan forgiveness program temporarily halted by appeals court https://t.co/qZ0dr87sj7
 
@visegrad24: The former General Secretary of the Communist Party (China’s leader between 2002-2012), Hu Jintao was just manhandled in front of everybody & escorted out by security guards. Xi is cleaning house.  https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1583752971845718018
 
@IndoPac_Info: Former China president Hu Jintao forcefully escorted out of CCP party congress.  Li Keqiang, Li Zhanshu, Han Zheng & Wang Yang, all reformist & liberal CCP figures, are out of new CCP Central Committee. All references to HuJintao removed from govt website.
https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1583794671129485312
 
Xi Allies Fill China’s Top Jobs in Move Toward One-Man Rule
President Xi Jinping stacked China’s most powerful body with his allies, giving him unfettered control over the world’s second-largest economy
    Xi replaced four of the seven members of the Standing Committee with close allies, including Beijing party secretary Cai Qi, 66; current Xi chief of staff Ding Xuexiang, 60; and Guangdong leader Li Xi, 66. Only anti-graft czar Zhao Leji, 65, and party secretariat chief Wang Huning, 67 — both of whom have spearheaded signature Xi policies — returned.  The new lineup came a day after Premier Li Keqiang, 67, and top political adviser Wang Yang, 67, neither of whom were seen as close Xi associates, were removed from party leadership ranks. Their departures were the first time in 25 years that any member of the Standing Committee younger than the retirement age of 68 had left the body… https://t.co/hd88oH7d6t
 
@allstarcharts: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now up 3 weeks in a row for the first time in 2022https://t.co/TXziHyssAo
 
The U.S. Army’s 101st Airborne is practicing for war with Russia just miles from Ukraine’s border
(Why?  Dangerously wagging the dog for the Midterms?)
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-news-russia-us-army-101st-airborne-nato-war-games-romania/
 
Today – Though stocks are due to retreat after the expiry surge, upward seasonal bias for earnings season remains, and October performance gaming should appear late in the week.  This week, because most Fangs, mega-caps and 46% of the S&P 500 report results, should experience the peak intensity of the earnings season rally.  More importantly, the regime media is touting stocks to aid and abet Dems for the Midterms ;and Team Biden will do whatever it can to get stocks to rally.
 
After $13 Trillion Stock Crash, Signs of a Turn Are Now Mounting – BBG on Sunday, 8:32 ET
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-23/after-13-trillion-stock-crash-traders-are-ready-to-fight-back
 
Numerous pundits alleged over the weekend that last week, Team Biden, made pointed calls to the Fed.
 
Weekly CNBC contributor Lawrence McDonald: At 9 am Friday morning, the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos made a market-moving call from the highest mountain… Coincidence? It was an “inside job” — let us dig in… The BOJ wants and needs Fed support after their last – failed attempt to support the yen a few weeks ago. We believe they put a phone call in to Fed chair Powell seeking important, corroborating support…
    The Fed was put on notice from the highest levels – White House officials were knocking on Fed chair Powell´s door this week. They couldn’t get OPEC´s to help oil prices lower, to support the inflation fight. Now politically – the S&P MUST move higher ahead of the BIG DAY on November 8th.  Midterm elections are won and lost in suburbs, where 401Ks are even more important than the price at the pump…  https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/blog/2022/10/22/inside-job/
 
Whether McDonald or other pundits that make similar allegations are correct or not, a critical mass of traders believe intervention appeared on Friday and will continue to appear until November 8.  This belief will create a self-fulling prophesy of bullishness for stocks.
 
Another stock surge will vex the Fed.  If stocks soar over the next week or so, it undermines the Fed’s inflation fight.  Then, the Fed must decide how political it wants to be in its communique on November 2 or if it wants to do what is right for the long-term economic health of the USA.
 
ESZs soared to +49.25 three minutes after opening on Sunday night (18:00 ET) for the above reasons.  They lost ~half of their rally when the yen/$ hit 149.69, a rescission of over half of its intervention surge.  But the BoJ intervened at 19:33 ET; and the yen/$ surged to 145.56.  ESZs jumped 12 handles on the intervention but quickly retreated when the yen/$ sank to 147.89 within 9 minutes of the high.
 
Due to more BoJ intervention, all bets are off!  There is no telling how determined the BoJ is; and there is no way to know how much capital it will commit.  However, if BoJ interventions keep falling, look out!!
ESZs are +23.25; USZs are -1/32, and the yen/$ is 148.58 at 20:30 ET.  Astute traders are very wary!
 
Expected economic data: Oct S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 51, Services PMI 49.4
 
Expected earnings: SLB .55, AXP 2.40, HCA 3.85, VZ 1.28
 
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 3887; 100-day MA: 3918; 150-day MA: 4035; 200-day MA: 4135
DJIA 50-day MA: 31,125; 100-day MA: 31,431; 150-day MA: 32,152; 200-day MA: 32,749
 
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
MonthlyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 4570.18 triggers a buy signal
WeeklyTrender and MACD are negative – a close above 3951.16 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3534.82 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3678.82 triggers a sell signal
 
@RealMacReport: Doocy: “Ahead of these midterms, how big of an issue is crime?” Joe Biden: “Democrats have a great record on crime.” https://twitter.com/RealMacReport/status/1583534509441822720
 
Biden and Dems will intensify their gaslighting efforts with only 2 weeks until the Midterms – but a renowned Dem pollster, Stan Greenberg, says The Big Guy’s gaslighting is counterproductive.
 
@ByronYork: Voters really, really hate it when Joe Biden tells them he’s done a good job. It’s his ‘worst performing message.’ From @politicoGreenberg has been imploring the party to — let’s put this bluntly — shut the hell up about all the work it’s done. It’s not that voters don’t care. He says voters actively turn against Democrats when they hear it… https://t.co/ad4d3Xtu5c
 
@greg_price11: Joe Biden once again claims that he become a professor at UPenn after leaving the vice presidency (where he never taught a class) and then claims three universities offered to make him their president.  https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1583545960202145793
 
Zoned-out Biden, 79, gives excruciating pause when asked if Jill wants him to run again in 2024 – before dodging question by saying First Lady thinks he’s doing ‘important work’
    ‘I have not made that formal decision but it’s my intention… my intention to run again. And we have time to make that decision’, the president began. 
    ‘Dr. Biden is for it?’ the MSNBC interviewer asks – only to be met with silence. 
    ‘Mr. President?’ the reporter prods, to virtually no reaction from Biden. 
    ‘Dr. Biden thinks that uh, my wife thinks that uh, that I uh, that, that we’re, that we’re doing something very important,’ Biden finally states, while managing to avoid directly answering the question…
    Biden’s response led to a barrage of criticism on social media.  ‘One must feel sorry for him. But no way should he be working any job much less POTUS,’ wrote one user.
    ‘I feel like I am watching my Dad talk about my Mom who passed away 6 years ago. This is not funny. This is real,’ added another.
    ‘Imagine how low his approval would be if the media didn’t protect him with note cards, and pre-selected questions. It’s madness,’ suggested another Twitter follower…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11342645/Bidens-excruciating-pause-asked-Jill-wants-run-2024-dodging-question.html
 
@RNCResearch: BIDEN on his student loan debt bailout: “It’s passed. I got it passed by a vote or two.”
What is he talking about? Congress never voted on it. (Another Biden lie or more Biden dementia?)
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1584325204485894144
 
@RNCResearch: Joe Biden lands in Delaware for yet another weekend vacation at his beach home.
Biden has spent 252 days — 40% — of his presidency on vacationhttps://t.co/bxXjLJFZ9S
 
President Biden: Sin Eater for the Democrats
Americans find themselves crushed between high gas prices, and a terrible recession. Add to this rising violent crime—and Democrat efforts to get rid of cash bail for violent offenders—and it should be no surprise that independent women voters have flipped from Democrats to Republicans, according to several news polls. All of this is courtesy of Biden and his Democrats…A Red Wave mid-term election is coming.  And Biden will be blamed…The Jacobin leftists who dominate the Democrat Party certainly won’t blame themselves…
    Nationally, just a month ago, independent women voters supported Democrats by a 14 percentage points as the Democrat Party and their handmaidens of the media thumped the abortion drum. But people don’t get an abortion every day.  However, most Americans do buy gas every day. They cut back on food for their kids to afford gas to get to work. This is a gas and groceries election now, and Biden and the Democrats are on the wrong side of the equation…
   According to a New York Times/Siena College poll, there has been a flip. Female independent voters who supported the Democrats by 14 points now favor the Republicans by 18 points.  This is an amazing reversal in just weeks…   https://johnkassnews.com/joe-biden-sin-eater-for-the-democrats/?s=02
 
@RNCResearch: NANCY PELOSI: “When I hear people talk about inflation…we have to change that subject!”   https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1584196164391272448
 
@business: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi advised Democratic candidates to focus on “kitchen table” issues and reducing inflation ahead of the Nov. 8 midterm elections https://trib.al/NsFJzzZ
 
@newsmax: The Democrat-led House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol issued a subpoena Friday to former President Donald Trump. (Blatant political stunt for Midterms!)
 
@ColumbiaBugle: Another example of Garland’s political weaponization of The Justice Department: Tucker Carlson reacts to 24 year old UCLA student Christian Secor sentenced to 3 & 1/2 years in federal prison for briefly sitting in Mike Pence’s seat on January 6th  https://t.co/pLuT2LV8bO
 
@KariLake: @TuckerCarlson: “@Katiehobbs announced that thousands of voters mistakenly received a ballot that had only federal races on it. Now, there’s no proof this is deliberate, but it kind of undercuts the “Election Denier!” Attack when you send out thousands of faulty ballots. https://t.co/7YnN2nxHDq
 
@greg_price11: FBI lawyer plead guilty to fabricating evidence in warrants to spy on Donald Trump, got no jail time, and had his law license restored in good standing.  Steve Bannon gets four months in jail for refusing to talk to an illegitimate congressional committee.  This is justice in DC.
    Lois Lerner and Eric Holder were also held in contempt but never chargedJames Clapper committed perjury and was never charged. The DOJ could take its pick of crimes to charge Hunter Biden for but he’s still not indicted. The liars and leakers who did the Russia hoax are free.
 
Four years ago, a CNN poll had DeSantis trailing Dellums by 12 points for Florida Governor.  DeSantis won.  For decades, regime media polling has greatly overstated Dems strength. 
https://twitter.com/nashvegas__/status/1583526318070636545/photo/1
 
One year ago, Democrat Murphy had an 11-point lead over his unknown GOP challenger Ciattarelli for Governor of New Jersey.  The GOP ignored the race, not spending a dime on it.  Murphy won by only 3.2%, and the day after the election, Murphy was up by on 0.8%.  Then, votes were found for Murphy.  Ciattarelli did not concede until ten days after the election.  The moral: Incumbent Democrats with single digit leads in the polls could be vulnerable to a Red Wave.
 
@GOPChairwoman: According to a new NBC poll, 71% of Americans say our country is on the “wrong track” — an all-time midterm high.
 
@charliekirk11: Right now, the Democrat who handled elections in Virginia’s second-biggest county is under indictment for criminal behavior in the 2020 election—the most secure in American history.
 
Judge rules letting NYers vote by mail due to fear of COVID unconstitutional https://trib.al/UA4NJwk
 
Sen. McConnell Breaks from House GOP, Pledges More Weapons to Ukraine
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/mcconnell-gop-house/2022/10/21/id/1092899/
 
Socialist Seattle Dem who pushed police defunding fumes at cops for not protecting her from feces thrower   https://www.foxnews.com/us/socialist-seattle-dem-who-pushed-police-defunding-fumes-cops-not-protecting-feces-thrower
 
Mark Zuckerberg uses private jet frequently despite climate activism https://trib.al/ZwavDY6
 
San Diego ER seeing up to 37 marijuana cases a day — mostly psychosis https://trib.al/8a8OFiH
 
One of the best lessons you can learn in life is to master how to remain calm. Calm is a superpower.” – Bruce Lee

GREG HUNTER REPORT

WILL SEE YOU TOMOROW

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