MARCH 28//GOLD AND SILVER REVERSE COURSE AND END THE DAY MUCH STRONGER: GOLD UP $19.70 TO $1972.50//SILVER FINISHED THE DAY UP A STRONG $.28 TO $23.27//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $14.00 TO $968.30//PALLADIUM WAS UP $7.30 TO $1437.00//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE IMPACT/SLAY NEWS/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA UPDATES//CANADIAN INSOLVENCIES ON THE RISE FROM MILLENNIALS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
TODAY IS COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY AND TRUE TO FORM THE CROOKS RAID SO THAT THE BANKS CAN MAKE THEIR PENNIES. THE BIGGER OTC/LONDON OPTIONS EXPIRY IS FRIDAY’
Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1972.20
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 23.32
Bitcoin morning price:, $27,261 UP 771 Dollars
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $27,120 DOWN 630 dollars
Platinum price closing $982,30 DOWN $14.00
Palladium price; closing $1437.00 UP $7.30
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2681.45 UP 7.63 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2732.50)
BRITISH GOLD: 1598,03 UP 1.50 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//1629.84)
EURO GOLD: 1813.83 UP 1.14 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH//1860.82)
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 468 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 18 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 840 661 C JP MORGAN 1 661 H JP MORGAN 400 737 C ADVANTAGE 4 880 H CITIGROUP 1 905 C ADM 4
TOTAL: 868 868
MONTH TO DATE: 6,070END
COMEX DATA EXCHANGE:
: COMEX 868 CONTRACTS
:
JPMORGAN stopped 0/868 contracts
DONATE
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation.
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAR/2023. CONTRACT: 868 NOTICES FOR 86800 OZ or 2.6998 TONNES
total notices so far: 6070 contracts for 607,000 oz (18.880 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 5 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 25,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 3160 for 15,850000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $19.70
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:////// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES FROM THE GLD.
INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.07 TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 28 CENTS
AT THE SLV// SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF OF 0.368 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 458.887MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 157 TO 117,842 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.15 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. WITH YESTERDAY’S READING AT THE COMEX, WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,682 CONTRACTS , MARCH 27.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.15). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 1232 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 1075 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 15.58 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S ZERO JUMP TO LONDON OF nil OZ//NEW STANDING: 15.915 MILLION OZ + THE 1.0 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 16.915 MILLION OZ/ //// V) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/. WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE POINT THAT THE CROOKS CANNOT LIQUIDATE ANY MORE SILVER SPEC LONGS.
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –46 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS MAR. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 20 days, total 16,993 contracts: OR 84.965 MILLION OZ . (849 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 84.965 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 84.965 MILLION OZ//INITIAL//STRONG ISSUANCE BUT BELOW LAST MONTH
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 157 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR $0.15 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1075 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR OF 15.58 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE// FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S ZERO OZ/QUEUE JUMP (WHICH INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 1.0 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED EARLY IN MARCH (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW STANDING 16.915 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1232 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 5 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 25,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 6508 CONTRACTS TO 483,178AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED-1370 CONTRACTS.
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 5,138 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $28.50 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 86,500 OZ (2.6905TONNES) //(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London)YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $28,50 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 3,442 OI CONTRACTS (10.706 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 3066 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 483,178.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3442 CONTRACTS WITH 6508 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 3066 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3442 CONTRACTS OR 10.706 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3066 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (6508) //TOTAL LOSS IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 3442 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR MAR. AT 4.9953 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 86,500OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 19.0139TONNES // ///3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION //4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
MAR
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 86,130 CONTRACTS OR 8,613,000OZ OR 267.90TONNES IN 20 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4307EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 20TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 267.90 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 267.90/3550 x 100% TONNES 7.54% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 267.90 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 157 CONTRACTS OI TO 117,842 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,685 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022
EFP ISSUANCE 1075 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 1075 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1075 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 233 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1075 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1232 CONTRACTS.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES //6.160 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.15 LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.02 PTS OR 0.19% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 216.96BPTS OR 1.11% /The Nikkei closed UP 41.38 PTS OR 0.15% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.04% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.8821//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.8849 /Oil UP TO 73.25 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 78.53 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 6508 CONTRACTS UP TO 483,174WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $28.50 ON MONDAY
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 3066 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 3066 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3066 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR TOTAL OF 3,442 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3066LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 6508 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $28.50 WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: MAR (19.0139) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0139 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $28.50 //// AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 3,442 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 10.706 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAR. (4.9953 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 86500OZ (2.69 TONNES)… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $28.50.
WE HAD -1370 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3442 CONTRACTS OR 344,200 OZ OR 10.706 TONNES
TONNES
Estimated gold comex today 289,178/ //fair
final gold volumes/yesterday 320,696///FAIR TO GOOD
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6070 notices 607 18.880 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 0
total withdrawals: NIL oz
in tonnes:
0
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.
For the front month of MARCH we have an oi of 911 contracts having GAINED 862 contracts. We had 4 notices filed on MONDAY so we
gained 865 contracts or an additional 86,500 oz will stand for metal at the comex . IT SEEMS THAT OUR GOOD FRIENDS IN LONDON WHERE WAITING IN THE WINGS FOR THE ATTACK AND GOBBLED UP CONSIDERABLE PHYSICAL GOLD.
April LOST A CONSIDERABLE 26,904 contracts DOWN to 77,597 contracts. It is here that our banker friends have to worry as many will try and take delivery in this upcoming delivery month. WE HAVE 3 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE.
May GAINED 156 contracts to stand at 1222
We had 868 notice(s) filed today for 86800 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 868 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAR. /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6070 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (MAR. 911 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 868x 100 oz per contract equals 611,300 OZ OR 19.0139 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of MARCH.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR contract month:No of notices filed so far (6070 x 100 oz+ 911 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (868)x 100 oz} which equals 611,300 oz standing OR 19.0139 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 19.0139 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MARCH. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3160 x 5,000 oz = 15,880,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR(28) and the number of notices served upon today 5 (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the MAR./2023 contract month: 3160(notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAR (28) – number of notices served upon today (5 x 500 oz of silver standing for the MAR. contract month equates 15.910 million oz +the 1.0 million oz of exchange for risk//new total standing 16.910 million oz
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MARCH 28/WITH GOLD UP $19.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.07 TONNES
MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.97 TONNES
MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $47.70 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT 87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.42 TONNES
MARCH 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.4 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55 TONNES
MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $50.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72TONNES
MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72 TONNES
MARCH 15/THE IDES OF MARCH: WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 11.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $48.85 TODAY: VERY STRANGE HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 901.42 TONNES
MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.15 TONNES
MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $0.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES
FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.61 TONNES
FEB 27/WITH GOLD UP $6.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES
FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 22/WITH GOLD DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 923.07 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.887 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 230,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.255 MILLION OZ
MARCH 23 WITH SILVER UP 62 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 919,000 0z INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.485 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 781,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.566 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 20./WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.401 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.347 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 79 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.748 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.009 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.226 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 643,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.235 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.287 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 477.592 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP $1.35 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 10.WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.979 MILLION OZ
MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWALOF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.684 MILLION OZ
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.143 MILLION OZ
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.
FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.241 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.188
FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.471 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.429 MILLION OZ
FEB 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.172 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.900 MILLION OZ//
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.379 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.072 MILLION OZ//
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 689,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.693 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.5363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.382 MILLION OZ//
FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.819 MILLION OZ/
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//
FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//
FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//
CLOSING INVENTORY 459.255 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
end
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards/John Rubino
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/
END
5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: LITHIUM
END
GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
SBF Charged With Funneling $40M In Crypto To Bribe CCP Officials
TUESDAY, MAR 28, 2023 – 04:39 PM
Federal prosecutors in Manhattan have hit FTX founder Sam Bankman Fried (“SBF”) with a new 13-count indictment accusing him of funneling $40 million in cryptocurrency to ‘one or more’ Chinese government officials, in order to “influence and induce them” to unfreeze Alameda Research trading accounts holding over $1 billion in crypto.
He is accused of conspiring to violate anti-bribery provisions of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.
In the Tuesday court filing, prosecutors asked US District Judge Lewis Kaplan to arrange a court hearing in order to arraign Bankman-Fried on the new charges.
“The S5 Indictment, which was unsealed this morning, includes the twelve counts contained in the S3 Superseding Indictment, as well an additional count for conspiracy to violate the anti-bribery provisions of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (‘FCPA’), in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 371,” reads a letter to the judge, Coindesk reports.
The 31-year-old previously pleaded guilty to eight counts related to the collapse of FTX, after prosecutors accused him of stealing billions of dollars in customer assets to try and stop Alameda Research – his crypto hedge fund – from imploding.
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 6.8821
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8849
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.02 PTS OR 0.19%
HANG SANG CLOSED UP 216.996PTS OR 1.11%
2. Nikkei closed UP 46.38 PTS OR 0.15%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 102.26 EURO RISES TO 1.0828 UP 122 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.319 J apan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 130.97 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: UP-// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.290***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4,156*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.335…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.160
3j Gold at $1956.60silver at: 23.04 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 5/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 76.57//
3m oil into the 73 dollar handle for WTI and 78 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 130.97 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .319% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9168as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9864 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.554 UP 3 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.762 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.023 UP 6 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.11…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 13 BASIS PTS AT 3.489
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures Flat As Attention Turns To Fed Rate Hikes
TUESDAY, MAR 28, 2023 – 03:09 PM
US futures are flat with bond yields reversing an overnight drop, lifted by the belly of the curve; the USD weaker for 8 of the past 9 days, and commodities mostly higher as investors shift their focus back to concerns about inflation and potential further monetary tightening from the recent banking-industry chaos; after all, a bank hasn’t failed in at least a few days. WTI has soared 5.6% this week.
S&P 500 contracts were little changed as of 7:45 a.m. ET, after earlier gaining as much as 0.4% and closing 0.2% higher on Monday. Nasdaq 100 futures slid 0.2% after the tech-heavy benchmark lost 0.7% on Monday following strong gains over the previous two weeks. European stocks advanced along with Asian equities and the dollar traded lower as fears of broader contagion from the banking turmoil eased.
According to JPM, If bank contagion fears subside, we may see a resurgence in both bond yields and commodities as growth, before the banking crises, was stronger than expected led by the US and a reopened China. “However, banking crises typically have wide-ranging, and negative, impacts on growth and employment.” Today’s macro data focus includes inventories, housing prices, regional mfg updates, and Consumer Confidence. Keep an eye on the confidence number as that can impact spending.
In premarket trading, Alibaba shares soared 9% after the Chinese e-commerce company planned to split into six units that will individually explore IPOs. Shares in fellow Chinese ADRs also rallied. First Republic Bank gained 3.1% adding to a 12% jump on Monday after First Citizens BancShares’s agreement to buy Silicon Valley Bank reassured investors in regional lenders. PVH climbed 12% in premarket as the owner of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger issued stronger-than-expected earnings forecasts. Lyft rose as much as 5.2% after the ridesharing company appointed David Risher as CEO. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Array Technologies gains 3.7% after Truist Securities raises the solar equipment manufacturer to buy from hold, saying it has made significant progress addressing past challenges related to its product portfolio, execution and margin structure.
Carnival Corp. is raised to equal-weight from underweight at Wells Fargo as the cruise operator has low near-term refinancing risk, its business in Europe is holding up well, and its annual Ebitda forecast is reasonable. Its shares gain 1.7% after dropping 4.8% on Monday following its earnings report.
Ciena Corp. shares are up 3.2% in premarket trading after Raymond James upgraded the communications equipment company to strong buy from outperform.
Occidental Petroleum advances as much as 2.2% after being upgraded to outperform from market perform at Cowen, with the broker saying the oil and gas company stands out for its “superior” exposure to oil pricing, share support, capital structure and differentiated catalyst rich profile. .
PVH shares surge 12% after the parent company of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger issued stronger-than-expected forecasts for revenue growth and reported fourth-quarter earnings per share that beat estimates. Analysts found the company’s performance to be strong, flagging the beat to EPS as well as the strong outlook. .
Viking Therapeutics said it plans to initiate a Phase 2 study of VK2735 in patients with obesity in mid-2023 based on Phase 1 trial results. Shares gain 50%.
Virgin Orbit fell more than 9.5% after the launch provider placed workers on furlough as it seeks rescue financing or bankruptcy.
“For now, it looks like the major stress around the banking crisis is calming down and markets can switch back to monitoring the inflation-recession dynamics,” said Marija Veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets in London.
As jitters in the banking sector subside, investors are again turning their attention to economic fundamentals and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Swaps have meanwhile priced in a more than 50% probability of a rate hike at the next meeting; they continue to expect sharp easing later however, with pricing suggesting the policy rate will slide to around 4.3% in December, down from around 4.95% in May.
Not all agree. “We see major central banks moving away from a ‘whatever it takes’ approach, stopping their hikes and entering a more nuanced phase that’s less about a relentless fight against inflation but still one where they can’t cut rates,” strategists at BlackRock Investment Institute, including Wei Li and Alex Brazier, wrote in a note.
Hugh Gimber, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, also doesn’t foresee rate cuts anytime soon, even if hikes pause, and cautions against stock-market optimism on it. “I think the market is right to price a Fed pause,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “The question here is how big the feed through from a deterioration in lending standards is to really get inflation lower towards target, and I’m not that convinced we will see that very quickly. I think we would need a pretty significant economic shock to get there in 2H. Rate cuts are more of a 2024 story.”
European stocks are in the green although they’ve pared gains since the open as investors remain cautious amid risks to the global financial system. The Stoxx 600 has trims gains to 0.2% while Deutsche Bank swings to a ~2% fall from from ~2% rise. Energy, miners and autos are the strongest-performing sectors. Here are the most notable European movers:
GSK gains as much as 0.9% after it announced positive results from an endometrial cancer drug trial. Shore Capital describes the published data as “promising”
Ocado shares rise as much as 5.7% after the online grocer’s retail joint venture with Marks & Spencer beat sales expectations in the first quarter
Zalando shares rise as much as 3.2% as HSBC upgrades the online fashion retailer to buy from hold, saying its momentum is moving in the right direction
Marks & Spencer shares gain as much as 3.1% as Credit Suisse hikes its price target, saying the UK retailer’s recovery momentum is building
Eurocash jumps as much as 11% after the retailer posted record 4Q Ebitda of 308m zloty and cut debt ratios, seen by analysts as a soothing signal
Telecom Italia shares rise as much as 3.4% after Bloomberg reported that Italian state-backed lender CDP plans to raise its offer for the carrier’s landline network
Diageo shares slip as much as 0.9% after the British distiller said Ivan Menezes plans to retire as chief executive officer, which analysts say is a loss
Embracer shares slump as much as 15%, after the video-game maker said licensing deals with several industry partners are unlikely to be completed before the month ends
Norma shares fall as much as 15% as Baader highlights the tech hardware firm’s conservative FY23 margin outlook due to ongoing burdens from efforts to restructure
CMC Markets falls as much as 6.3%, adding to a 21% drop Monday when the online trading company released a downbeat earnings update late in the session
Schibsted shares drop as much as 9.6% as a weaker short-term guidance for the Norwegian media and classified advertising group offsets higher longer-term targets
Synthomer shares drop as much as 19% with Morgan Stanley saying it sees further consensus downgrades ahead for the UK chemicals firm following its FY results
Elsewhere in markets, Asian stocks gained as a lull in new developments in the banking sector gave investors a chance to adjust positions and assess whether the Federal Reserve will lower rates to buttress the US economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.9%, halting a two-day losing streak. A sub-gauge of financial shares jumped more than 1% as they followed US peers higher. Australia, Japan and South Korea advanced. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained about 1%, while China’s mainland indexes fluctuated. “Asia still remains relatively well insulated from the latest round of US/European bank turmoil,” Citigroup analysts including Johanna Chua wrote in a note. “Direct exposure of Asia to the affected financial institutions is very limited.” Asia’s regional equity gauge has climbed more than 2% over the past week as US bank shares regained their footing after tumbling last week and fanning fears of a looming economic slowdown. Doubleline Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach said on CNBC that he expects a US recession to start in a few months, and that the Federal Reserve will need to respond “very dramatically.”
Japanese stocks rose for a second day as concerns around financial institutions cooled after First Citizens BancShares Inc. agreed to buy failed Silicon Valley Bank. The Topix rose 0.2% to close at 1,966.67, while the Nikkei advanced 0.2% to 27,518.25. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 2.7%. Out of 2,159 stocks in the index, 799 rose and 1,232 fell, while 128 were unchanged. “Overall risk tolerance has increased now that the Silicon Valley Bank situation appears to have calmed down,” said Ryuta Otsuka, strategist at Toyo Securities. “However, it is hard to expect large market moves in Japan as we are approaching the end of the fiscal year.”
Australian stocks extended rose with the S&P/ASX 200 index rising 1% to close at 7,034.10, extending gains for a second session, boosted by mining shares and banks. Lithium miners, some of the benchmark’s most shorted names, rallied after Liontown rebuffed a takeover bid from Albemarle. Equities across Asia climbed, US stock futures edged higher and the dollar declined as fears of broader contagion from the banking turmoil eased. Investors await Australia’s CPI print due Wednesday. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 1.4% to 11,771.27
Stocks in India were mostly lower on Tuesday as key gauges headed for their fourth consecutive monthly decline amid tepid sentiment for global equities. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.1% to 57,613.72 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 0.2%. The benchmark gauge has slipped about 2.1% this month and is on course for its longest losing monthly streak since Feb. 2016. Software major Infosys contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 0.8%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 11 rose, while 19 fell. All 10 companies related to the Adani Group fell, led by a 7% plunge in flagship firm Adani Enterprises after a newspaper report said the conglomerate will probably seek more time to repay a $4 billion loan it took out last year. Foreign investors have been buyers of $1.3b of local shares this month through March 24, mainly on back of GQG Partners’ stake purchase in Adani companies. “Barring gains in select banking and metal stocks, other sectors witnessed profit-taking as caution prevailed ahead of the F&O expiry on Wednesday,” Kotak Securities analyst Shrikant Chouhan said.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.1%, marking its eighth day of declines in the past nine sessions, weighed by a jump in the yen on domestic demand ahead of the fiscal year-end in Japan. Exporters in Japan and Australia added to the selling of the dollar as they increased hedging to cover prior long positions in the greenback, Asia- based FX traders said. The New Zealand dollar and Japanese yen are the best performers among the G-10s while the Swiss franc is the weakest.
In rates, the five-year Treasury yield rises as much as 7 basis points to 3.67%, while the two-year yield climbs 4 basis points to 4.04% after sliding as low as 3.89% earlier in the session; a selloff in Treasuries since the start of the week has lifted most yields from six-month lows reached on Friday. 10-year yields around 3.55%, cheaper by 2bps on the day with bunds lagging by additional 5bp in the sector; 2-year yields cheaper by around 7bp on the day, remain above 4% level vs. Monday’s 3.954% auction stop. As BBG’s Beth Stanton notes, Monday’s poorly-bid 2Y auction is now under water vs its 3.954% stop with May rate hike back in favor. Auction cycle continues with $43b 5Y at 1pm. WI yield 3.65% is between last two 5Y stops. The US auction cycle resumes with $43b 5-year note sale at 1pm, follows Monday’s poor 2-year result; WI 5-year at 3.63% is ~48bp richer than February’s stop-out. German two-year borrowing costs are up 12bps.
Traders are now betting on a roughly 50/50 chance that the Fed will deliver a final quarter-point hike in May, followed by a similar-sized cut in September; market pricing reflects a diminishing outlook for a series of cuts in the coming months, and a growing view that the Fed may keep rates on hold for longer. BlackRock sees the Fed continuing to raise interest rates despite traders betting otherwise as fears of a banking crisis convulse markets. “We don’t see rate cuts this year – that’s the old playbook when central banks would rush to rescue the economy as recession hit,” its strategists write in a note. “We see a new, more nuanced phase of curbing inflation ahead: less fighting but still no rate cuts.”
In commodities, crude futures advance with WTI up 0.5% to trade near $73.15. Spot gold falls 0.3% to around $1,951. European and US gas benchmarks diverge slightly in European trade; Morgan Stanley writes that “prices likely still need to move lower to incentivize an adequate supply response, but we may be approaching the bottom”.
Looking to the day ahead, we will have a number of data releases from the US including the Conference Board consumer confidence, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index and business conditions, the Dallas Fed services activity, the January FHFA house price index, and February’s wholesale and retail inventories and advance goods trade balance. We will also have Italy’s March manufacturing and consumer confidence as well as economic sentiment data, and from France the March manufacturing and consumer confidence data. The BoE’s Bailey will testify today on the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, and we will also hear from ECB’s Muller. Finally, we will have earnings releases from Micron, Walgreens Boots Alliance and Lululemon.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,009.00
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 446.06
MXAP up 0.6% to 159.53
MXAPJ up 0.6% to 512.94
Nikkei up 0.2% to 27,518.25
Topix up 0.2% to 1,966.67
Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 19,784.65
Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,245.38
Sensex little changed at 57,596.88
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.0% to 7,034.09
Kospi up 1.1% to 2,434.94
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.30%
Euro up 0.2% to $1.0818
Brent Futures up 0.5% to $78.49/bbl
Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,952.30
US Dollar Index down 0.17% to 102.69
Top Overnight News
Alibaba plans to split its $220 billion business into six main units encompassing e-commerce, media and the cloud, each of which will explore fundraising or IPOs when the time’s right. Group CEO Daniel Zhang will head up the cloud intelligence division, a nod to the growing role AI will play in the e-commerce leader’s portfolio in the long run. BBG
Binance’s CEO Changpeng Zhao shot back at the CFTC, calling its lawsuit over alleged violations of derivatives regulations “unexpected and disappointing,” given compliance efforts and cooperation with regulators. His firm doesn’t trade for profit or manipulate the market, he said. The suit has “an incomplete recitation of facts.” BBG
China has significantly expanded its bailout lending as its Belt and Road Initiative blows up following a series of debt write-offs, scandal-ridden projects and allegations of corruption. A study published on Tuesday shows China granted $104bn worth of rescue loans to developing countries between 2019 and the end of 2021. The figure for these years is almost as large as the country’s bailout lending over the previous two decades. FT
Semiconductor companies seeking federal grants under the Chips Act could face a tough decision: take Washington’s help to expand in the U.S., or preserve their ability to expand in China. The Biden administration last week proposed new rules detailing restrictions chip companies would face on operations in China and other countries of concern if the companies accept taxpayer funding. WSJ
Balances at the Fed’s RRP facility climbed, even as rates in the private market rose as much as 15 bps above the central bank’s offering yield. Ninety-eight counterparties parked $2.22 trillion at the RRP, up $1.7 billion from Friday. BBG
The Federal Reserve’s top official on banking supervision has blamed the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on a “textbook case of mismanagement”, saying the board of the US central bank had been briefed on the troubles at the California lender in mid-February. FT
The Treasury’s top domestic policy official Nellie Liang will tell Congress regulators are ready to repeat steps taken after recent bank failures. She testifies today with the Fed’s chief of banking supervision, Michael Barr, and FDIC head Martin Gruenberg. The ECB’s top oversight official urged global scrutiny of the CDS market. And BOE boss Andrew Bailey said UK banks are strong. BBG
Calm returned to Israeli cities Tuesday and protests against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul dispersed after the premier agreed to suspend the controversial plan and Israeli President Isaac Herzog offered to host compromise talks between the two sides. WSJ
DIS has eliminated its next-generation storytelling and consumer experiences unit, the small division that was developing metaverse strategies, according to people familiar with the situation, as part of a broader restructuring that is expected to reduce head count by around 7,000 across the company over the next two months. WSJ
In the battle for the biggest prize in China’s trillion-dollar pension market, BlackRock Inc. and other global firms have little chance of attracting clients like Judy Deng: BBG
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. stuck to its guns and didn’t offer bailouts to keep two lenders from collapsing. Instead, it struck deals that included millions of dollars of sweeteners for the acquiring banks that sent their stocks soaring: BBG
The US took its most forceful move yet on Monday to crack down on crypto exchange Binance Holdings Ltd. and its chief executive officer Changpeng Zhao: BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed with a mild positive bias as global banking sector fears continued to dissipate and with early advances led by energy after the recent surge in oil prices although gains were capped in the region as North Korean nuclear rhetoric stoked geopolitical concerns. ASX 200 was boosted amid strength in the commodity-related sectors with outperformance in energy after oil prices notched the largest daily gain since October and financials were also lifted as Australia downplayed the risks to domestic banks from the recent global banking issues. Nikkei 225 was indecisive despite Japan reiterating plans for a JPY 2.2tln economic stimulus package with trade stuck in a narrow range near 27,500 after the nuclear rhetoric by North Korea which called for the scaling up of weapons-grade nuclear materials and included similar language used before its last nuclear test in 2017. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were choppy ahead of key earnings results and after PBoC liquidity efforts.
Top Asian News
China’s Foreign Ministry said Premier Li Qiang met with foreign representatives at the China Development Forum in Beijing on Monday and met with executives including Apple (AAPL) CEO Cook, while Li told executives China will unswervingly expand its opening up, according to Reuters.
US and Japan reached a trade deal for critical EV battery minerals in which the deal prohibits enacting export restrictions on lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese and graphite, according to US officials. Furthermore, the deal includes provisions to combat non-market practices, while access for Japanese automakers to the battery minerals portion of USD 7,500 in US EV tax credit depends on the tax guidance this week from the US Treasury.
China is reportedly aiming to set up 30+ key auto chips standards by 2025, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
A magnitude 5.7-5.9 earthquake occurred offshore Eastern Aomori Prefecture, Japan; NHK says it has a prelim. magnitude of 6.1; no tsunami warning issued.
European bourses were initially firmer across the board in a continuation of the APAC tone, though benchmarks have since eased from best and are flat/mixed. Sectors are mixed with Energy outperforming while Banking names were firmer but have eased off of best levels and incrementally into the red alongside the broader benchmarks throughout the morning. Stateside, futures are mixed/flat, though with the bias inching further into the red, as the region awaits todays Senate Banking Committee hearing on the recent banking turmoil with Fed’ Barr in attendance. Meta Platforms Inc. (META) plans to lower some bonus payouts and will more frequently assess employee performance, according to an internal memo, part of a sweeping revamp of the social-media company that includes large head-count reductions, WSJ reports. Alibaba (BABA/9988 HK) business unit can reportedly pursue fundraising and IPOs when ready, according to Bloomberg; Alibaba to restructure into six main business divisions.
Top European News
Kantar UK Supermarket update (Mar): Grocery price inflation has climbed again to reach 17.5% over the four weeks to 19 March 2023, a new record based on our latest market data.
ECB’s Muller says inflation is slowing but it is too early to declare a victory.
Banks
ECB’s Enria says current events confirm that strong, demanding supervision is needed more than ever. Adds, there have been some fast outflows of bank deposits in some cases.
BoE’s Bailey says does not think any of the features of recent banks issues are causing stress in the UK; Ramsden says will keep a close eye on bank funding costs.
US Treasury official Liang said the US government will use tools to prevent banking contagion again if warranted and that the US financial system is significantly stronger now due to stronger capital and liquidity requirements, while she added the US must ensure that banking regulations and supervision are appropriate for today’s risk and challenges, according to her prepared testimony, according to Reuters.
French PNF Financial Prosecutors says searches are underway at five banking/financial firms located within Paris and the Paris La Defense district re. a tax probe, German prosecutors assisting. Societe General (GLE FP) confirms its offices are being searched.
S&P says they are yet to see any meaningful contagion for APAC from the US regional banks/Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) turmoil.
FX
The USD has been incrementally softer throughout the morning within relatively narrow 102.52-102.76 parameters, most recently the DXY has attempted to pare initial downside.
Action which comes to the mixed fortune of peers, with AUD, NZD and JPY outperforming given the risk tone and as the JPY attempts to recover from Monday’s pressures; holding below 0.67, 0.625 and above 131.00 respectively.
CHF resides as the laggard, with downside seemingly stemming from the risk tone rather than any fresh Swiss banking concern, EUR/CHF above 0.99 to a 0.99300 peak.
In close proximity is the CAD which is unable to benefit from crude upside while GBP and EUR are contained around 1.08 and 1.23 respectively vs USD with Central Bank speak thus far not moving the dial.
Citi month-end model: Prelim. estimate points to moderate USD selling vs all major currencies ex-EUR, via Reuters. Click here for more detail.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8749 vs exp. 6.8737 (prev. 6.8714)
Fixed Income
EGBs are under pressure in a continuation of the firmer risk tone from APAC trade; however, benchmarks are off worst levels as equities inch into the red.
Specifically, Bunds are below 136.00 with the associated 10yr yield firmly above 2.30% though yet to breach 2.35%.
Gilts and the EZ periphery are in-line with mentioned core counterparts and have been unaffected by numerous Central Bank officials where the focus has been on recent banking turmoil.
Supply wise, the Italian and German sales passed without fanfare and were well-received overall though demand was slightly softer when compared to the prior outings.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks continue to climb aided by the softer dollar and the latest geopolitical tensions re. N. Korea; WTI and Brent holding above USD 73/bbl and USD 78/bbl respectively.
European and US gas benchmarks diverge slightly in European trade; Morgan Stanley writes that “prices likely still need to move lower to incentivize an adequate supply response, but we may be approaching the bottom”.
Spot gold is pressured by the risk tone and failing to benefit from the softer USD with the yellow metal below the USD 1959/oz 10-DMA and holding around USD 1950/oz currently, base metals conversely are modestly firmer.
Russian Deputy PM Novak says the domestic fuel and energy complex is sustainable despite challenges, hopes to agree on key contract terms for the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to China this year. Russia should look to produce at least 100mln/T of LNG per year by 2030.
Geopoliitcs
Russian Defence Ministry said it fired supersonic anti-ship missiles at a mock target in the Sea of Japan.
North Korean leader Kim guided the nuclear weaponisation programme and inspected nuclear trigger technology during a recent simulation. Kim also called for constant efforts to improve nuclear capability and said the country should be fully ready to use nuclear weapons at any time, while he called for the scaling up of weapons-grade nuclear materials to exponentially increase nuclear weapons arsenal. North Korea also alleged that US and South Korea military drills involving an air carrier are aimed at pre-emptive nuclear strike and said that US anti-North Korean activities are intensifying to unacceptable levels, according to KCNA.
North Korea is reportedly preparing to resume foreign diplomatic activity after three years of COVID isolation, according to FT; North Korean officials recently resumed travels to Russia and China.
Belarus’ Foreign Minister says they have been forced to take steps ensuring security in the face of NATO potentially increasing within neighbouring nations, via Tass.
Crypto
Binance CEO said the CFTC complaint appears to have an incomplete recitation of the facts and they do not agree with the issues alleged in the complaint. Binance CEO said they intend to respect and collaborate with US and other regulators around the world, while he added that Binance.com does not trade for profit or manipulate the market under any circumstances, according to Reuters.
08:30: Feb. Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.4%, revised -0.3%
09:00: Jan. FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. -0.2%, prior -0.1%
09:00: Jan. S&P Case Shiller Composite-20 YoY, est. 2.55%, prior 4.65%
S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY, prior 5.76%
S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. -0.50%, prior -0.51%
10:00: March Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 101.0, prior 102.9
Expectations, prior 69.7
Present Situation, prior 152.8
10:00: March Richmond Fed Index, est. -10, prior -16
10:30: March Dallas Fed Services Activity, prior -9.3
Central Banks
10:00: Fed’s Barr Appears Before Senate Banking Panel
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
After a hectic 2 and a half weeks that has felt like a year, the week has started on a much calmer footing. I’m on holiday for a couple of weeks from Thursday so I’m hoping that I don’t have to do zoom meetings from the ski slopes. My ski outfit and technique won’t make that a pretty sight.
As we highlighted in our CoTD yesterday (link here) we have to be careful not to fight the battle of the last war. Large banks in the US and Europe are completely different entities than they were going into the GFC. For large US banks for example, securities and loans/leases on their balance sheets as a % of deposits are lower than when our data starts in 1985 and at below 100% are massively down from their GFC peaks of over 150%. We don’t have the same long term data for Europe but the declines since the GFC are of similar magnitudes.
In contrast corporates are more levered now than during the GFC and this cycle could ultimately be more corporate default focused vs financials as per say 2001-2002 rather than 2008-09. See Steve Caprio’s full note here for more on this and how corporate spreads are too tight to financials now.
So no new news was good news yesterday and some risk premium was removed from the market. This was most evident in bonds with US 2yr and 10yr yields up +22.9 bps and +15.4bps respectively. The S&P 500 was up +0.80% in the first hour of trading but did retrace the entire move back to flat before rallying in the US afternoon to finish with a an overall modest gain of +0.17%, whilst the STOXX 600 climbed +1.05%. US banks led the US move higher, having traded off their lows from last week, with the S&P 500 banks index up +3.05%. European banks were earlier +1.69% higher.
Narrowing in, First Citizens jumped 49% at the market open after its agreement to buy SVB Financial Group’s Silicon Valley Bank, ending the day up by +53.74%. First Republic Bank similarly jumped at the open by +27.45% after a Bloomberg report that US authorities were considering an expansion to their emergency lending facility, the Bank Term Funding Program, that had been created on March 12 with the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank. Against this backdrop, the gauge of regional US banks, the KBW index, closed up +2.54% yesterday, with the leaders including First Republic (+12.14%), Comerica (+5.40%) and KeyCorp (+5.31%).
Improving risk sentiment saw investors pare back their expectations of Fed rate cuts, as the implied rate for the Fed’s May meeting gained +9.2bps, bringing it to 4.950%. In other words, fed futures are now pricing in a 53% chance of a +25bps hike in May. For December’s meeting, markets trimmed their expectations of rate cuts from over -94bps on Friday to nearly -74bps, as the implied rate rose +29.5bps to 4.206%.
Back on this side of the pond, the German March Ifo business confidence index printed above expectations at 91.2 (vs 88.3 expected), and up from 88.5 for February. The other two individual components of the release also beat expectations, with business climate rising to 93.3 (vs 91 expected) and current assessment at 95.4 (vs 94.1 expected). Although the Ifo survey typically demonstrates less sensitivity to financial market uncertainty relative to other surveys coming from Germany such as the ZEW survey, the release is consistent with last Friday’s PMIs that suggested the Eurozone economy remains in, or at least was in decent shape, before the banking crisis hit.
Consequently, the DAX outperformed relative to the broader STOXX 600 index, up +1.14%, whilst the STOXX 600 advanced by +1.05%. For the latter, all major sectors were in the green, with sector leaders including health care (+1.93%), utilities (+1.31%) and autos (+1.89%). The CAC also gained yesterday, up by +0.90%. Following from Friday’s jitters about European banking sector stability, ECB’s Simkus emphasised that ‘bank liquidity, capitalisation (are) high in euro area.’ ECB’s De Cos echoed this sentiment, stating ‘euro-zone banks (are) well-prepared for adverse scenarios’.
We also heard from several other ECB’s speakers yesterday, as ECB’s Schnabel stated she had pushed for the ECB statement to say that more hikes were a possibility as opposed to the verbal assurance that had been made by President Lagarde. ECB’s Centeno’s comments were more dovish, as he stated that they “don’t see long-term inflation expectations de-anchoring”, with “no signs of second-round effects in wage-setting.” Markets moved to price in a modestly higher terminal rate as Eurozone overnight index swaps for July were up +7.5bps bringing the rate to 3.321%. The rate for year-end also increased, up +11.5bps to 3.226%, pricing in a 1 in 3 chance of a -25bps rate cut by December. Against this backdrop, yields across the German sovereign yield curve were up yesterday, with the 10yr bund yield climbing +9.8bps higher bringing the yield to 2.227%. The 2yr yield gained +12.8bps to 2.521%
Asian equity markets are mostly higher overnight. As I type, the Hang Seng (+0.60%), the KOSPI (+0.44%) and the Nikkei (+0.07%) are higher but with stocks in mainland China mixed with the CSI (-0.16%) edging lower while the Shanghai Composite (+0.05%) is oscillating between gains and losses. US stock futures are a little higher with contracts tied to the S&P 500 (+0.16%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.17%) printing mild gains. Meanwhile, yields on 10yr Treasuries (-1.89bps) are slightly lower, trading at 3.51% while 2Yr Treasuries (-3.5bps) are trading at 3.96% as we go to press.
In early morning data, retail sales in Australia rose +0.2% m/m in February, in-line with market expectations, down from a revised +1.8% increase in January, signifying that households are reining in spending in response to higher interest rates. The subdued data adds to the case for a pause by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its April 4th meeting. Meanwhile, the CPI data scheduled to be released tomorrow will be of note for the central bank.
Turning to commodities, WTI crude futures performed strongly yesterday, rising +5.13% to over $72.81/bbl, whilst Brent crude gained +4.17% to $78.12/bbl. European natural gas futures also gained +3.49% yesterday. The rally in energy prices was due to both supply-side and demand-side pressures. On demand, the rally in bank stocks and purchase of SVB seemed to ease concerns of a wider financial crisis. Meanwhile, a legal dispute between the Iraqi semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan and Turkey has put about 400,000 bbl/day of exports in limbo. This come as French refineries are running at a fraction of normal capacity due to the ongoing protests in the country. A Bloomberg report had as much as 80% of the nation’s crude-processing capacity stalled.
Finally, yesterday also saw the release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for March which fell below expectations at -15.7 (vs -10 expected). This was a further decline from -13.5 last month as perceptions of broader business conditions deteriorated over the month.
Now looking to the day ahead, we will have a number of data releases from the US including the Conference Board consumer confidence, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index and business conditions, the Dallas Fed services activity, the January FHFA house price index, and February’s wholesale and retail inventories and advance goods trade balance. We will also have Italy’s March manufacturing and consumer confidence as well as economic sentiment data, and from France the March manufacturing and consumer confidence data. The BoE’s Bailey will testify today on the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, and we will also hear from ECB’s Muller. Finally, we will have earnings releases from Micron, Walgreens Boots Alliance and Lululemon.
2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Mildly positive bias to APAC trade, numerous Central Bank speakers ahead – Newsquawk Euro Market Open
TUESDAY, MAR 28, 2023 – 08:48 AM
APAC stocks traded mixed with a mild positive bias as global banking sector fears continued to dissipate.
European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3% after the cash market closed up 0.3% on Monday.
In FX, DXY extended declines below 103, JPY leads G10 FX, EUR/USD and Cable linger just above 1.08 and 1.23 respectively.
10yr USTs attempted to nurse recent losses, crude futures plateaued and held on to the spoils from its largest daily gain since October.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Senate Banking Committee re. SIVB, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Enria, BoE’s Bailey, Ramsden & Fed’s Barr, Supply from Italy, Germany & US.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks finished mixed albeit with the major indices mostly higher on receding fears around the banking crisis and surging oil prices which spurred outperformance in the energy sector and value stocks, while the acute bear-flattening weighed heavily on rate-sensitive industries such as tech and dragged the NDX in the red.
SPX +0.17% at 3,978, NDX -0.74% at 12,673, DJIA +0.60% at 32,432, RUT +1.08% at 1,754.
Fed’s Jefferson (voter) said inflation has come down and should fall back to towards the 2% target as demand falls but noted that inflation has been longer lasting and the current level is too high, while they want inflation to return to 2% sooner rather than later and don’t want expectations to become embedded. Jefferson also commented that they are still learning how much tight monetary policy has influenced the economy and inflation, as well as noted that Fed’s actions in recent weeks aimed to show depositors that there is someone out there willing to lend.
US Treasury official Liang said the US government will use tools to prevent banking contagion again if warranted and that the US financial system is significantly stronger now due to stronger capital and liquidity requirements, while she added the US must ensure that banking regulations and supervision are appropriate for today’s risk and challenges, according to her prepared testimony, according to Reuters.
FDIC Chairman said the agency is undertaking a comprehensive review of the deposit insurance system and has the authority to hold failed banks accountable, while the Chairman noted that losses to the FDIC insurance fund will be repaid and that the vast majority of banks are reporting no material deposit outflows.
US HHS Secretary declared a public health emergency for Mississippi in response to severe weather.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded mixed with a mild positive bias as global banking sector fears continued to dissipate and with early advances led by energy after the recent surge in oil prices although gains were capped in the region as North Korean nuclear rhetoric stoked geopolitical concerns.
ASX 200 was boosted amid strength in the commodity-related sectors with outperformance in energy after oil prices notched the largest daily gain since October and financials were also lifted as Australia downplayed the risks to domestic banks from the recent global banking issues.
Nikkei 225 was indecisive despite Japan reiterating plans for a JPY 2.2tln economic stimulus package with trade stuck in a narrow range near 27,500 after the nuclear rhetoric by North Korea which called for the scaling up of weapons-grade nuclear materials and included similar language used before its last nuclear test in 2017.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were choppy ahead of key earnings results and after PBoC liquidity efforts.
US equity futures (ES +0.1%) were rangebound overnight following the prior day’s indecisive performance.
European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3% after the cash market closed up 0.3% on Monday.
FX
DXY was marginally softer and extended further beneath the 103.00 level as the dollar made way for its major counterparts and after yields slightly eased with the US 2yr yield back beneath 4%.
EUR/USD gradually edged higher and reclaimed the 1.0800 following the recent slew of ECB rhetoric including reports that ECB’s Schnabel pushed for the ECB statement to say more hiking is possible.
GBP/USD continued to benefit alongside the mild positive bias and with recent comments from BoE Governor Bailey who said inflation is likely to fall steeply in the UK but also suggested further monetary tightening would be required if signs of persistent inflationary pressures become evident.
USD/JPY reversed Monday’s gains as yield differentials between US and Japan narrowed.
Antipodeans were firmer amid tailwinds from recent gains in commodities and Australian Retail Sales data.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8749 vs exp. 6.8737 (prev. 6.8714)
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures attempted to nurse some of its recent losses and found slight reprieve from the bear flattening seen yesterday which coincided with receding banking sector fears and following a dismal 2yr auction.
Bund futures languished near the prior day’s lows after the hawkish ECB rhetoric and German Ifo data.
10yr JGB futures were subdued after the selling pressure across global peers but with prices off worse levels following stronger results at the latest 40yr JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures plateaued and held on to the spoils from its largest daily gain since October as banking fears cooled, while the recent gains were also attributed to supply risk out of Iraq/Kurdistan and geopolitical concerns.
India was the largest buyer of Russia’s seaborne Urals oil in March which accounted for 65% of the total and kept Russia’s exports high, according to Reuters citing traders and Refinitiv data. Traders also noted that Russia may continue to maintain high oil exports in April to meet Indian refiner needs.
Spot gold was uneventful as the tailwinds from a softer dollar were offset by the lack of haven demand.
Copper futures were kept afloat amid a mild positive tone but with gains capped amid indecision in China.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin continued to pull back from this month’s surge and dipped beneath the USD 27,000 level.
Binance CEO said the CFTC complaint appears to have an incomplete recitation of the facts and they do not agree with the issues alleged in the complaint. Binance CEO said they intend to respect and collaborate with US and other regulators around the world, while he added that Binance.com does not trade for profit or manipulate the market under any circumstances, according to Reuters.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s Foreign Ministry said Premier Li Qiang met with foreign representatives at the China Development Forum in Beijing on Monday and met with executives including Apple (AAPL) CEO Cook, while Li told executives China will unswervingly expand its opening up, according to Reuters.
US and Japan reached a trade deal for critical EV battery minerals in which the deal prohibits enacting export restrictions on lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese and graphite, according to US officials. Furthermore, the deal includes provisions to combat non-market practices, while access for Japanese automakers to the battery minerals portion of USD 7,500 in US EV tax credit depends on the tax guidance this week from the US Treasury.
DATA RECAP
Australian Retail Sales MM Final (Feb) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 1.9%, Rev. 1.8%)
GLOBAL NEWS
Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed to delay the second and third readings of the justice bill and the Israeli labour union called off a nationwide strike after PM Netanyahu announced to delay the judicial overhaul.
GEOPOLITICAL
US senior admin official said at least 50 US government staffers stationed in ten countries were targeted with spyware and President Biden is set to sign an Executive Order to prevent the use of such tools.
Russian Defence Ministry said it fired supersonic anti-ship missiles at a mock target in the Sea of Japan.
Russia failed to get the UN Security Council to ask for an independent inquiry into the Nord Stream gas pipeline explosions which occurred in September last year, according to Reuters.
Hungary’s parliament approved Finland’s NATO membership.
North Korean leader Kim guided the nuclear weaponisation programme and inspected nuclear trigger technology during a recent simulation. Kim also called for constant efforts to improve nuclear capability and said the country should be fully ready to use nuclear weapons at any time, while he called for the scaling up of weapons-grade nuclear materials to exponentially increase nuclear weapons arsenal. North Korea also alleged that US and South Korea military drills involving an air carrier are aimed at pre-emptive nuclear strike and said that US anti-North Korean activities are intensifying to unacceptable levels, according to KCNA.
EU/UK
BoE Governor Bailey said inflation is likely to fall steeply in the UK and if signs of persistent inflationary pressures become evident, further monetary tightening would be required. Bailey said the MPC’s response will be firmly anchored in the emerging evidence and said it is too soon to say if UK credit conditions have tightened in recent weeks.
ECB’s Schnabel said it is not easy to say how restrictive rates are and there is no sign of weakening in the labour market, while she noted there is no real concern about financial stability risks but added the situation is still fragile.
DATA RECAP
UK BRC Shop Price Index YY (Mar) 8.9% (Prev. 8.4%)
AND 2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.02 PTS OR 0.19% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 216.96BPTS OR 1.11% /The Nikkei closed UP 41.38 PTS OR 0.15% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.04% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.8821//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.8849 /Oil UP TO 73.25 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 78.53 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA/USA
end
4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS
DEUTSCHE BANK
Regulators Blame Friday’s Deutsche Bank Crash On Single CDS Trade
TUESDAY, MAR 28, 2023 – 05:50 PM
Last Friday, what was already a bad global banking crisis following the implosion of the US regional banking sector and the collapse of Credit Suisse last weekend, turned much worse when as we showed at the time, the CDS of Deutsche Bank blew out to levels wider than those hit during the covid crash…
… and sparking another global market rout amid growing fears that the largest European bank could fail next.
The CDS – and stock – rout prompted a barrage of verbal defense by everyone from Wall Street analysts (working for other banks and thus who are thus quite incentivized, and conflicted, in preventing a bank crash that would dwarf Lehman) and European politicians (who would be on the hook for the multi-billion bailout and/or depression should DB fail), and for now this has succeeded with both DB stock and CDS stabilizing in the past few days. Meanwhile, realizing they must quickly bolt down all the “weakest links” moments ago Bloomberg reported that regulators are taking a page out of the post-Lehman playbook and as part of the scapegoating campaign which looks at everyone but those responsible, are “singling out a trade on Deutsche Bank AG’s credit default swaps that they suspect fueled a global selloff on Friday.”
The trade in question, according to Bloomberg sources, represents a laughable €5 million ($5.4 million) bet on swaps tied to the German bank’s junior debt, which also happens to be the smallest tradable denomination and blaming the near collapse on DB on one single CDS trade is equivalent to blaming the May 2010 flash crash on two-bit stay-at-home daytrader Navinder Sarao (which, come to think of it, is precisely what happened so we aren’t that shocked). And to frontrun the perpetual mockery from those whoa actually know how the CDS market works, BBG was quick to note that CDS contracts can be illiquid, “so a single bet can trigger big moves.” Yes it can… and a big move will trigger even bigger counter moves, assuming there is anyone in the market with any conviction. It is the fact that nobody was willing to take the other side on the smallest possible short risk bet targeting DB’s junior debt, that speaks volumes about this idiotic “explanation” for why DB almost went down last Friday.
Of course, if one is dumb enough to believe that one single, solitary trade can spark a marketwide avalanche, then what happens next is obvious:
The suspected knock-on effect was a rout that sent banking stocks tumbling, government bonds higher and CDS prices for lenders soaring, trimming about €1.6 billion off Deutsche Bank’s market cap and more than €30 billion off an index that tracks European banking stocks.
So yeah, tens of billions in value wiped out because of literally the smallest possible CDS increment one can trade. Good narrative-shaping there, guys.
There is a reason why regulators are scrambling to pin the blame on some tiny family office that was hoping to hedge against a DB collapse: European banks and their regulators have sought to underline that they have a close watch on risks — including rising rates — and that the industry is on a sound footing. Events last Friday showed just how clueless Europe’s regulators are. One could say they are almost as clueless as their US peers who allowed the regional bank crisis to reach a level where nobody knows what is safe anymore.
Amid the unwanted attention, German lender published a presentation on Monday that cited its “well diversified portfolio” of deposits, a key focus for investors following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Deutsche Bank and the broader index rebounded on Monday, erasing some of Friday’s losses.
So who gets to be the Nav Sarao of this bank crisis? We don’t know yet, because according to BBG, “it’s unclear who placed the relevant trades or why they did it.” Hilariously, even BBG admits that this wasn’t some premeditated attempt by some rookie to crash the banking system, but rather concedes that “some data point to the trades being for hedging purposes, said one of the people.”
And just in case the laughter isn’t loud enough yet, the report goes on to note that “there’s also a trade on Deutsche Bank’s five-year, senior CDS contracts executed on Thursday that attracted scrutiny, one of the people said.”
Oh, so it wasn’t one CDS trade… it was two. Well, congrats to DB for surviving not one but two short trades!
The search for triggers underscores a general lack of transparency in the asset class, which Andrea Enria, the European Central Bank’s top oversight official, flagged on Tuesday. He also called for global financial regulators to take a closer look at the CDS market.
“There are markets like the single name CDS market which are very opaque, very shallow, very illiquid,” Enria said at a conference hosted by German newspaper Handelsblatt. “With a few millions, you can move the CDS spreads” of a major bank “and contaminate also stock prices and possibly also deposit outflows,” he said, without naming any banks.
And just like in 2008, the demonization of CDS traders has begun. Unfortunately, it also means that the crisis is only just starting, and before it is done, plain vanilla stock shorts will also be thrown under the bus and shorting itself will be proghibit
5.UKRAINE/RUSSIA/MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS//
/RUSSIA//GERMANY//NORDSTREAM I AND II
Russia Could Seek Compensation Over Nord Stream Sabotage
Russia could demand compensation for damages over the sabotaged Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, a senior Russian diplomat told Russian news agency RIA Novosti in an interview.
“We do not rule out raising the issue of compensation for damages as a result of the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipelines,” Dmitry Birichevsky, Head of the Economic Cooperation Department at the Russian Foreign Ministry, was quoted as saying.
The official did not specify with whom Russia would seek compensation.
Russia will continue to insist on an investigation into the blasts that involves Russian representatives, Birichevsky said, adding that the “Western countries are actively sabotaging work” on a Russia-proposed draft UN resolution calling for an independent investigation.
The Nord Stream pipelines were sabotaged in late September in still unexplained circumstances. Nord Stream 1 was carrying gas from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea, while Nord Stream 2 was never put into operation after Germany axed the certification process following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia, for its part, shut down Nord Stream 1 indefinitely in early September, claiming an inability to repair gas turbines because of the Western sanctions.
Various investigations into the Nord Stream explosions continue amid accusations from Russia that some Western intelligence services are “hiding something.”
Sweden’s refusal to share information about the sabotage of Nord Stream is “puzzling,” and withholding the results of the investigation means that “Swedish authorities are hiding something,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in January.
Last month, Russia called for an international investigation into the sabotage of Nord Stream after a U.S. investigative journalist wrote that the United States
END was behind the explosions of the gas pipelines.
Russia does not expect that findings on the Nord Stream blast investigations will be made public, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said last week.
end
An apocalyptic video from Bakhmut shot by a drone appeared on the Web
Robert Hryniak
4:20 PM (25 minutes ago)
to
The concept of using high rise apartments as a fortification from which to wage defense is really dumb. Sure you can haul artillery and machine guns to heights to attack on coming troops but fixed in place you are dead when artillery or bombs come calling. It is pointless to take large cities this way. It is better to surround them and starve them out. That is why fortresses became death traps unless they were equipped to last for months with ample food and water.
Ukrainian armed units hit a college in Melitopol, where classes are being held
obert Hryniak
3:50 PM (57 minutes ago)
to
Why is this not a war crime? Is Ukrainians killing schoolchildren ok? This is not war but simple murder. How can one support a corrupt regime intent on such actions? Because to support such a regime is to be colored by its’ actions. And people wonder why confidence in Government is disappearing? The public has more common sense than the politicians that are supposed to govern. And the world outside the West is not blind.
stupid, it’s the vaccine! It’s the spike protein, stupid, its the spike protein!” 4 prior death data stats show 15.1%, 16.0%, 17.0%, and 17.3% increases in excess deaths above the baseline average.
‘The previous four Australian ABS Provisional Mortality Statistics data releases reveal 15.1%, 16.0%, 17.0%, and 17.3% increases in excess deaths above the baseline average. Similar, if not worse, trends, are happening all over the western world. Clearly, something serious, I would say catastrophic, is occurring, yet strangely politicians and the censorship industrial complex are almost entirely unconcerned about investigating it. They don’t want you to know what is driving this, but we all know what is causing it. Watch as I speak in the Australian Senate about the tragic western trend of excess deaths.’
This study was hidden & covered up by media & CDC & NIH & FDA; stopped early because of adverse events in 18 (12%) patients versus four (5%) patients who stopped placebo early.
‘In this study of adult patients admitted to hospital for severe COVID-19, remdesivir was not associated with statistically significant clinical benefits. Remdesivir was stopped early because of adverse events.’
I wanted to remind you of this study out the same day NIH published its fraud study that allowed the EUA and standard of care for Remdesivir (the failed Ebola drug) that went on to be kidney and liver toxic and killed our parents; many doctors should go to jail for this! No amnesty!
Netanyahu Backs Down, for now, to Avoid Civil War in Israel March 27, 2023 2:35 pm A day after the largest protests in the history of modern-day Israel, most Israeli embassies were closed today, including their embassy in Washington D.C., to show support for the protesters in Israel. In a much anticipated announcement, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a speech at around 8 p.m. local time Monday night stating that the government would pause their judicial overhaul plans, in order to avoid a civil war. There are questions as to how much support he has in the military. It remains to be seen if Netanyahu’s remarks will be enough to end the protests and strikes. Opposition organizers have reportedly stated that a “temporary” pause in the government’s plans to overhaul the judiciary are not enough. Read More…
Crypto Takedown Accelerates as World’s Largest Cryptocurrency Exchange Binance Sued by U.S. Government March 27, 2023 6:22 pm It is looking more and more each passing day that the U.S. financial system is speeding into a consolidation of the Big Banks, as their war against cryptocurrencies appears to be now accelerating. It was announced today that Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, along with their Chief Executive Officer Changpeng Zhao, are being sued by the US Government. The lawsuit was filed by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission for “Willful Evasion of Federal Law and Operating an Illegal Digital Asset Derivatives Exchange.” This follows a report last week, that Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S., is also being threatened with a lawsuit by the Securities and Exchange Commission. With the Davos Crowd’s financial system on the brink of ruin, they are doing everything they can to stop of the flow of bank runs and the exit of cash from their banks, such as into cryptocurrencies. How much longer can the Davos Crowd keep propping up their failing banks? Swiss Banks were once considered the safest place to stash wealth by the “elites” of Western Culture. But now some are calling Switzerland a “Banana Republic” after the raid on pension funds and the collapse of Switzerland’s second largest bank. Read More…
Kari Lake Overrules Joe Biden: “Shut Your Mouth, Buffoon”Kari Lake and former White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany turned the tables on Joe Biden after the President made an astounding comment about the southern border on social media. Biden actually said on Twitter: “MAGA House Republican proposals would slash funding for border security – a move that could allow nearly 900 pounds of fentanyl into our country. We …READ MORE
Elon Musk Tells Hollywood To Pound Sand: “There shouldn’t be a different standard for celebrities”Elon Musk set Hollywood straight after a major star whined about getting charged for a blue check mark on Twitter. One of Musk’s first big moves after taking over the social media platform was to allow anyone to buy a coveted blue check mark. The check mark was previously available based on a murky process that favored the rich and …READ MORE
Georgia Homeowner Catches Intruder In The Act, Shoots Him DeadA Georgia homeowner fatally shot dead an intruder trying to break into his house around 5:30 a.m. Thursday. Shocked neighbors were eating their breakfast when they heard the shots ring out in DeKalb County. A neighbor, Melan Sydnor, said: “I was in the kitchen and then there were gunshots and it was really loud. I heard a few gunshots and …READ MORE
Elon Musk Reaches Limit, Tells CNN To Shut The F*ck UpTwitter CEO Elon Musk reached his limit with CNN after the network posted an absurd article titled, ‘What’s ‘digital blackface?’ And why is it wrong when White people use it?’ The network added this caption on social media: “If you’re White and you’ve posted a GIF or meme of a Black person to express a strong emotion, you may be …READ MORE
A Textbook Case Of Mismanaging Everything, Everywhere, All At Once
TUESDAY, MAR 28, 2023 – 05:13 PM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
A textbook case of mismanagement
“A textbook case of mismanagement” is how the Fed Vice Chair responsible for bank supervision is going to describe SVB when he testifies to Congress today. He will also stress the Fed is prepared to use “all of our tools for any size institution, as needed, to keep the system safe and sound.” While reassuring to some, to critics that will sound like a textbook case of mismanagement of moral hazard that ends up in future financial crisis headlines and further Fed bailouts.
Indeed, @JackFarley96 fintwits: “On July 16, 2019, The Federal Reserve & FDIC received a letter warning them about issues with US regional banks and their potential failure. The letter was sent by a group of senior central bankers and regulators, including Paul Volcker, Sheila Bair, and Jean-Claude Trichet, and Sir Paul Tucker, the then-chair of The Systemic Risk Council. Tucker had this to say to me last week: “in 2019 the Fed and the FDIC effectively decided to formally cease resolution planning for large regional banks.”” Who is going to be pointing fingers at whom today?
As Philip Marey covers in his latest report on the Fed (‘It gets cloudy after the pivot’), “The banking turmoil has strengthened markets’ belief that the Fed is going to cut rates before the end of the year. However, the implied policy rate path should be taken with a grain of salt, as the uncertainty about the rate path has increased substantially. So markets are pricing in a stronger pivot, but the exact rate path has become less clear.” That lack of clarity may have played a role in the ugly 2-year US Treasury auction yesterday, which also smacks of a textbook case of mismanagement – unless the Fed wanted to confuse markets about the rates path ahead.
Meanwhile, we see mismanagement of data in market analysis. For example, Bloomberg just stressed that Fed support for banks, if not via rate cuts, implies either balance sheet expansion (QE, not QT) or credit easing via liquidity support (so acronyms). Rate hikes and acronyms: who knew this could happen?! The point made is that all three are bad for the US dollar. Which is true: but they are worse for everyone else in the same boat!
ECB data show February, i.e., pre-crisis, already saw record deposit withdrawals from Eurozone banks due to rising rates. This went into money market funds or bank bonds, which does not smack of a lack of confidence – but it still says the cost of capital is going to increase. Moreover, Reuters says ‘ECB tells banks to cut lending to indebted borrowers after binge’, noting: “The ECB has told banks to cut lending to the most indebted borrowers, which could poke a hole in their balance sheets if the economy turns south or interest rates rise…. Leveraged transactions have grown to a EUR500bn pile on the books of the Eurozone’s 28 largest lenders from EUR300bn in 2018 as record-low interest rates made banks seek returns in riskier parts of the market.”
In Australia, Westpac CEO Peter King, speaking at a local banking summit, stressed the issue for struggling mortgage holders is the duration of higher rates. In other words, everyone will tighten their belts and eat less smashed avo on toast in 2023 to keep up their home loan payments; but if rates don’t start falling back in 2024 then things start to look ugly: one can also point to the UK, or Canada, or New Zealand, or just about anywhere and say the same kind of thing. Given three of the four key Aussie datapoints the RBA is looking to before its next meeting have been strong or in-line, with retail sales up 0.2% m-o-m today as expected, and only CPI to follow tomorrow, then 25bps in April looks baked into the cake for now.
In short, it’s not just the US with issues related to higher rates on big piles of rate-sensitive lending; and it’s not just the US who will have to find either traditional or hybrid solutions. It’s still likely to be the ‘least dirty shirt in the dirty laundry basket’.
On those hybrid policy responses, Monday saw the perfect headline underlying the geopolitical reality now leaning on economics and markets which this Daily tries to hammer home. Norwegian ammunition manufacturer Nammo is complaining it can’t up production because a new TikTok data center is using up all the spare electricity in the area. They literally say: “We are concerned because we see our future growth is challenged by the storage of cat videos.” That’s a ‘guns or butter’ political-economy choice that a single interest rate isn’t going to help: too high, and you get neither guns nor ‘butter’; too low, and you only get ‘butter’.
Of course, in the case of TikTok one could just ban it, as the US Congress seems increasingly likely to do given the head of the US spy agency publicly calls it a “Trojan horse”. However, that’s as political-economy as it gets too: closing off some forms of ‘butter’ by fiat. As is the US regulatory attack on crypto platform Binance. This Daily has long argued the US authorities were ultimately likely to do unto crypto what FDR did unto gold in the 1930s, i.e., regulate it away as a real dollar rival. It was a textbook case of mismanagement to presume otherwise.
Yet a larger game is afoot. The Saudis making a huge investment into a new Chinese refinery and Riyadh accepting payment for USD-priced oil from Kenya in Shillings (as Kenya’s president states: “I will give you one piece of advice, forget the dollar. This market will soon change fundamentally. We don’t need dollars anymore.”) testify to a textbook case of White House foreign policy mismanagement. Even CNN and Fox News are now worrying about the end of US dollar hegemony as we shift towards more global barter priced in US dollars and cleared in third currencies. (For now.)
Yet the end of US dollar hegemony can’t happen unless the US, and the US alone, mismanages its economy on a far more epic scale than it currently is: and history shows a major war is usually required too.
The latter is a topic of conversation, as the Financial Times notes the worrying symmetry with the 1930’s in the Japanese PM’s recent visit to Kyiv as Xi Jinping visited Moscow: if you think the rates outlook is cloudy now, try looking at those dark storm clouds on the horizon. Maritime-executive.com, linking both points, op-eds that ‘To Prepare to Fight, China is Studying America’s WWII Pacific Campaign’, stressing (as we did back in 2021’s ‘In Deep Ship’) that control of maritime logistics, i.e., supply chains, and the ability to disrupt them, are of critical importance.
Combine that with The Economist cover last week being ‘The World According to Xi’, with Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia orbiting a Chinese planet (in response to which I was asked: “Where is the German satellite?”), and the Indian chief of army staff delivering the keynote at a conference on China’s Rise and Its Global Implications in which he called it “totalitarian” and “belligerent”, and one is left saying ‘tick tock, tick tock’ not just TikTok. (Which India already banned.)
Meanwhile, on the US as uniquely problematic, all Western economies have their own issues. Saudi Arabia is building a giant cube 400m * 400m * 400m giant gold cube filled with a central TV screen. (Really.) And as some flag Jack Ma visiting China and Bloomberg stresses “Beijing extended its efforts to court foreign investment,” promising it will “unswervingly” open up a “broad space” for foreign firms, Henry Gao argues ‘Beijing’s Regulatory Crackdown Is Unlikely to End Any Time Soon’, underlining: “the types of businesses pursued by digital giants such as Alibaba are now regarded as “unhealthy,” or more specifically, not in line with the industrial policies of China…. Bias for heavy industrial development is reaffirmed by Xi’s party congress report, which emphasizes that the key focus of economic development should be the “real” economy, that is, only the industrial and agricultural sectors. The tertiary sector –services– is almost ignored in his report. When mentioned, it is only considered to be a supplementary activity “deeply integrated with advanced manufacturing and modern agriculture.”” He concludes the next Beijing target is finance – which means a hybrid monetary-fiscal-regulatory-industrial policy.
Moreover, Gao elsewhere points out new State Council Working Rules show its ‘guiding thoughts’ section has deleted all previous references to Marxism, Leninism, Mao, and Deng, the Three Represents, and the Scientific Development Outlook, and keeps only Xi Jinping Thoughts on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in the New Era. One might think that worthy of a market comment or two: but of course the market never read or understood any of the above anyway – or maritime-executive.com.
Furthermore, the new working rules state all major decisions and problems must be reported to the CCP Central Committee first; all State Council members shall resolutely implement the decisions of the Party Central Committee, and refrain from speech and behaviour that contradicts the decisions of the CCP Central Committee; and leading comrades of the State Council do not publicly publish books and speeches, do not send congratulatory letters, congratulatory telegrams, inscriptions, or prefaces. Gao concludes: “Li Keqiang might be the weakest Premier compared to the ones before him, but he will be the strongest Premier compared to everyone after him.”
Against this kind of backdrop, huge potential volatility awaits. For example, Kyle Bass again claims: “The Hong Kong Dollar is on the precipice of disaster. It broke through the weak side of the peg at the open today due to the beginning of significant capital outflows from global fiduciaries that have been forced to re-underwrite the danger of investing in China. SVB – a lesson.” Of course, the rebuttals to this are various and vocal.
To conclude, is everywhere seeing a textbook case of mismanagement all at once, or just some – or none? And what does the world look like on the other side of the currently cloudy outlook? I suggest our current textbooks will be on fire, for a start.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
CANADA
Millennials Dominate Insolvencies In Canada As Credit Card, Student Loan And Other Debts Pile Up
TUESDAY, MAR 28, 2023 – 02:20 AM
As US millennials distinguish themselves as the ‘buy now, pay later‘ generation, their Canadian counterparts are leading the way when it comes to insolvencies, according to Ontario-based insolvency trustee firm, Hoyes Michalos, which performs an annual “Joe Debtor” analysis.
According to Doug Hoyes, millennial Canadians have been dealt a generational losing hand, as debts from credit cards, high-interest loans and tax debt, and debt owed from the country’s taxable financial support during the pandemic known as the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB).
“I think there’s a whole bunch of whammies that have hit millennials,” said Hoyes. “The CERB was the final straw that broke the camel’s back.”
The 2022 Joe Debtor study examined 2,700 personal insolvencies filed in Ontario. Hoyes Michalos says 49 per cent were filed by millennials aged 26 to 41, even though they make up 27 per cent of adult Canadians.
The study found that on a per−population basis, millennials were 1.4 times more likely to file for insolvency than people in generation X aged 42 to 56, and 1.7 times more likely than baby boomers aged 57 to 76.
Insolvent millennials were on average 33 years old and owed an average of $47,283 in unsecured debt. –Canadian Press
According to Hoyes, many people didn’t set aside taxes when they received CERB and other pandemic-related relief funds. Now, a flood of young Canadians have found themselves insolvent and unable to continue paying down their various debts.
Hoyes says the millennials have been given a bum rap, and didn’t enjoy the same societal benefits as older generations – whose wages kept up (better) with inflation, and went to college when tuition didn’t require student loans – allowing graduates the ability to enter the workforce and start saving and investing right away, as opposed to having to service large debts in addition to pulling off a house.
He also says there’s no ‘safety valve’ like there use to be.
“Anything goes wrong like a pandemic, or you lose your job or you get sick or you get divorced and boom, there is no safety valve there,” said Hoyes, who added that filing for bankruptcy is an option to eliminate debts, however most people end up working with insolvency trustees to file proposals to manage their debt.
“It becomes an affordable way to eliminate the debt, and that’s why we’re seeing more and more millennials resorting to consumer proposals,” he said. “They really have no other choice.”
According to Winnipeg-based credit counselor Sandra Fry, many young people are looking for ways to manage debt without declaring bankruptcy.
“Unfortunately, a lot of people out there are living on the edge of their affordability,” she said, adding that inflation is “really squeezing Canadians in general from all sides.”
Millennial clients she’s dealt with lately have often had variable interest rate mortgages, and rate hikes “caused huge strain on their budget because their payments just went up like crazy.”
Dave Locke, 31, lives with his wife in Coquitlam, B.C., east of Vancouver, and the couple sought Fry’s help when their mortgage payments jumped dramatically in the middle of a costly renovation.
Locke, who works for a real estate brokerage, got into the housing market at a young age having worked in the oil and gas industry after high school.
He ended up buying a home in Coquitlam with his wife Tara, who works in labour relations, and the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes eventually saw their monthly mortgage payments jump 40 per cent.
The couple had a construction loan with their bank to fund the renovations, and as interest rates climbed and the price of construction materials ballooned, Locke realized something had to give, even with their relatively high combined incomes. -Canadian Press
“I’m still paying the full balance,” said Locke. “I’m just not paying any additional interest.”
He says that while it’s embarrassing to be in so much debt, “it’s just the way it goes.”
“You have to kind of swallow your pride.“
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0828 UP .0022
USA/ YEN 130.97 DOWN 0.266 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2312 UP 0.0015
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3669 UP.0019(CDN DOLLAR UP 19 PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 6.08 PTS OR 0.19%
Hang Sang CLOSED UP 216.96 PTS OR 1.11%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP.1.04% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED UP 216.96 PTS OR 1.11%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.02 PTS OR 0.19%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.04%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 34.36 PTS OR 0.33%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1957.00
silver:$23.00
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 102.26 DOWN 26 BASIS POINTS from MONDAY’s close.
Yesterday’s early exuberance gave way to reality today as macro data and politics were back.
Consumer confidence lifted modestly today despite weakening home prices (7 straight months of declines), wholesale and retail inventories on the rise again (maybe consumer not so strong after all), and plunging Richmond Fed Business Conditions.
That all pushed the market dovishly, pricing in a 54% chance of a ‘pause’ by The Fed in May…
Source: Bloomberg
Regional Banks were dumped today as the Washington hearings on bank failures offered nothing but more regulation and more laws and tighter credit and tighter margins… and no bailouts…
With First Republic and PacWest spanked again…
As Bloomberg noted, the $30 billion Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF), which holds the financial-related components from the S&P 500 Index, is testing its highs from nearly 16 years ago, along with its lows of the past 18 months…
Source: Bloomberg
“Triple bottoms are pretty rare, but the more times you test a given level, the more likely it is to break,” Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, said.
“What has surprised a lot of people, including myself, is that the weakness in financials was a benefit to tech because a lot of funds went into technology. If you’re a long-only money manager with a cash mandate where you have to be fully invested and have been selling a lot of financials and cyclicals, you have to put your money somewhere. That’s part of the reason why tech has done well.”
And in case you thought that Europe was fixed, bank credit spreads remain notably more elevated than immediately after the CS bailout…
Source: Bloomberg
Broadly speaking, the US majors were all lower on the day, with Nasdaq leading the drop. The S&P joined Nasdaq in erasing all of yesterday’s gains. Small Caps remain the leader this week And The Dow is holding on to gains…
There was a last second jump in stocks on headlines (from Charlie Gasparino – so consider the source) that FRC is no longer for sale…
The S&P 500 fell back to its 100DMA…
The Dow was glued around its 200DMA…
No real attempt at a squeeze in the indices today as ‘most shorted’ stocks faded most of the day…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, while banks were monkeyhammered, Office REITs/CRE stocks squeezed notably higher this afternoon…
Source: Bloomberg
Value has outperformed Growth for 3 straight days… but note where the reversal happened (this is Russell 1000 Value / Russell 1000 Growth)…
Source: Bloomberg
The market is pricing in a lot of uncertainty around this week’s PCE print…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields ended the day higher but it was a very different day than we have seen recently with the long-end very quiet relative to recent chaos. The short-end was uglier but the belly was worse today, also again not quite so much panic selling (or buying)…
Source: Bloomberg
One thing of note was that today 5Y auction was strong – as opposed to yesterday’s ugly 2Y auction.
Also we note that while issuance has been non-existent since the start of March, yesterday saw a metric fuckton of European and US corporates issuing USD bonds (which helps explain the near vertical ramp across the curve from the middle of Friday’s session) as windows opened… and why today, without that rate-lock flow and corporate supply, yields actually traded in a narrow range…
Source: Bloomberg
One stand out on the curve that we haven’t discussed too much is the 3m2Y spread, which hit an all-time record low (inverted) this week at (-92bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar leaked lower for the second day in a row, back near post-FOMC lows…
Source: Bloomberg
After the Binance buggering yesterday, Bitcoin bounced back above $27,000…
Source: Bloomberg
But Ethereum really jumped, back above yesterday’s highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold gained on the day, finding support around $1950…
Oil prices rallied again today, with WTI within a tick of $74 ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…
Finally, we note that the market remains dramatically decoupled The Fed’s Dot-Plot (around 90bps more dovish)…
Source: Bloomberg
If The Fed is forced to cut rates that hard, it is not something to be ‘buy buy buy’-ing stocks over – either ‘hard landing’ or ‘banking crisis’ or both…
i b Morning trading:
Early morning trading:
II) USA DATA
“Delay Your Home Purchase” – Bob Shiller Warns As Prices Slide For 7th Straight Month
TUESDAY, MAR 28, 2023 – 04:11 PM
US home prices, according to S&P CoreLogic’s Case-Shiller index, fell for the 7th straight month (-0.42% MoM) leaving the home price index up 2.55% YoY (in January – this data is always very lagged) – the lowest growth since Nov 2019.
Source: Bloomberg
“One of the most interesting aspects of January’s report is the continued weakness in home prices on the West Coast, as San Diego and Portland joined San Francisco and Seattle in negative year-over-year territory,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in statement.
“It’s therefore unsurprising that the Southeast (+10.2%) continues as the country’s strongest region, while the West (-1.5%) continues as the weakest.“
Source: Bloomberg
San Francisco and Seattle are down the most from their highs (New York and Miami are down the least). Home prices in Miami and Tampa are still up over 60% since COVID…
Finally, the man behind the home price index – Yale economist Bob Shiller – told CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime” Monday. “Home prices are very, very high by historical standards.”
“I would extrapolate the downturn somewhat – it’s going to continue,” he added.
“Maybe if you have a good chance to delay your purchase, it might be a good time to do it.”
“It might get a little cheaper after another six months.”
We suspect that is what Powell is hoping for, and judging by mortgage rates, prices have a long way to fall…
Unless The Fed folds.iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS//
END
Conference Board Confidence Improves, Inflation Expectations Rise In March
Having disappointed for the last two months, analysts expected The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index to extend its recent modest decline (from 102.9 to 101.0), but instead it bounced a smidge to 104.2. The Present Situation weakened a little from 152.8 to 151.1 while Expectations rebounded from 69.7 to 73.0.
Source: Bloomberg
The Conference Board’s gauge of one-year inflation expectations rose (after tumbling in February)…
Source: Bloomberg
The Conference Board’s sentiment remains notably decoupled from UMich’s sentiment measure…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, the Conference Board’s measure of labor market tightness worsened (less jobs plentiful vs hard to get) in March…
Source: Bloomberg
That’s not what Mr.Powell wants to see.
USA COVID//
END
SWAMP STORIES
Jim Jordan Demands Docs After IRS “Attempt To Intimidate” Journalist Matt Taibbi During Govt Weaponization Hearing
TUESDAY, MAR 28, 2023 – 05:40 AM
“Lois Lerner ain’t got shit on me…”
Sometimes the hubris and self-delusion just goes too far…
It has been eleven years since Lois Lerner presided over (and then apologized for) the IRS targeting of conservatives during the 2012 election.
But her“inappropriate… error of judgment”may just have been turned up to ’11’ as during the day when independent journalist Matt Taibbi was in Washington DC delivering testimony to the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government on March 9, an IRS agent visited his home in New Jersey, leaving a note demanding he contact the agency within four days.
“Odd” indeed, Mr. Musk.
As The Wall Street Journal reports, Mr. Taibbi was told in a call with the agent that both his 2018 and 2021 tax returns had been rejected owing to concerns over identity theft.
The journalist has provided House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan’s committee with documentation showing his 2018 return had been electronically accepted, and he says the IRS never notified him or his accountants of a problem after he filed that 2018 return more than four-and-a-half years ago.
He says the IRS initially rejected his 2021 return, which he later refiled, and it was rejected again – even though Mr. Taibbi says his accountants refiled it with an IRS-provided pin number.
Mr. Taibbi notes that in neither case was the issue “monetary,” and that the IRS owes him a “considerable” sum.
The bigger question on everyone’s minds (most of all Rep. Jordan) is simple – since when did the IRS dispatch agents for surprise house calls? Is this the new $80 billion budget being well spent to ‘send a message’ to a reporter telling the truth?
The coincidental timing of this unannounced IRS agent visit prompted Rep. Jordan to write to IRS Commissioner Daniel Werfel and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, demanding answers:
“In light of the hostile reaction to Mr. Taibbi’s reporting among left-wing activists, and the IRS’s history as a tool of government abuse, the IRS’s action could be interpreted as an attempt to intimidate a witness before Congress. We expect your full cooperation with our inquiry.”
Jordan added that “the circumstances… are incredible,” and “demand a careful examination by the Committee to determine whether the visit was a thinly-veiled attempt to influence or intimidate a witness before Congress.”
And the committee Chair demanded that the IRS and Treasury provide the following documents and information:
1. All documents and communications referring or relating to the IRS’s field visit to the residence of Matthew Taibbi on March 9, 2023;
2. All documents and communications between or among the IRS, Treasury Department, and any other Executive Branch entity referring or relating to Matthew Taibbi; and
3. All documents and communications sent or received by Revenue Officer [James Nelson] referring or relating to Matthew Taibbi.
Yellen and Werfel were given until April 10th to comply with the request.
Will this arrogant show of disdain for democracy – this clear and present danger exposed of government agency ‘weaponization’ at its very apex – be the Alonzo Harris’ undoing of ‘untouchable’ Democratic Party’s grip on power?
We will have to wait and see if Rep. Jordan’s demands for documents are met?
END
THIS IS BIG!!
Durham bombshell: Prosecutor unveils smoking gun FBI text message, ‘joint venture’ to smear Trump | Just The News
Robert Hryniak
4:22 PM (29 minutes ago)
to
What’s new in. America as everything seems fabricated and politics is the worse.
he King Report March 28, 2023 Issue 6977Independent View of the NewsFirst Citizens to Buy SVB After Biggest Failure Since 2008Deal includes $56 billion in deposits, $72 billion in loansFDIC estimates the cost of SVB’s failure will be $20 billionThe acquisition transforms First Citizens into one of the top 15 US banks, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, with help from some favorable terms. First Citizens is buying about US$72 billion of SVB’s assets at a discount of $16.5 billion, according to an FDIC statement. This leaves about $90 billion in securities and other SVB assets in the hands of the FDIC, and an estimated cost of the failure to the Deposit Insurance Fund of about $20 billion. Meanwhile, the FDIC gets equity appreciation rights in First Citizens with a potential value of $500 million… https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/first-citizens-to-buy-svb-after-biggest-bank-failure-since-2008-1.1900726
ESMs rallied sharply in early Asian trading on Monday. After a 16-handle ESM decline, ESMs and stocks commenced another rally at 21:36 ET that persisted until the 3 ET European open. Alas, spirited sellers unloaded stuff; ESMs sank to 3997.50 (28.00 decline from high) at 3:48 ET.
But traders are extremely bullish; so, they bought the early European drop. ESMs and stocks then rallied sharply until 7:40 ET. Alas, sellers returned; ESMs and stock sank into and after the NYSE open.
You all know what happened next. The usual suspects eagerly bought the decline on the NYSE open, creating a bottom at 9:39 ET. ESMs jumped 15 handles in only 7 minutes. Alas, that was the high. ESMs and stocks then sank until 11:19 ET. A modest rally for the European close appeared. After Europe closed, ESMs and stocks sank to new NYSE session lows.
A Noon Balloon developed; the rally persisted until 13:47 ET. After a 12-handle ESM decline, ESMs and stocks surged higher. USMs hit -2 2/32. Most traders believe that the US banking crisis had ended. The rally ended at 15:00 ET. The ensuing 24-handle ESM declined ended at 15:59 ET.
Banking Crisis Raises Concerns About Hidden Leverage in System The concern is that private equity firms and others were allowed to load up on cheap loans as banking regulations tightened after the global financial crisis — without enough oversight into how the debt could be interconnected… “A slight downturn and an increase in interest rates will make some corporates default… This puts their private debt providers in trouble and then the bank that provides leverage to the fund in trouble.”… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/banking-crisis-raises-concerns-hidden-104500924.html
Deutsche Bank $42 Trillion Derivatives Book: A Snowflake Away From Financial Meltdown? As far as I know, DB is in a very healthy state… The risk, however, is that the unsubstantiated fears around DB become a self-fulfilling prophecy that could drive up its cost of funds in the Investment Bank… most of DB’s derivatives exposures are Over-The-Counter (“OTC”) derivatives and therefore exposed to counterparty default risk… banks like DB monitor specific counterparty risks daily and ensure that their total exposure (netting) to a particular counterparty is within predefined risk limits. This is a key reason why counterparties reduced their trading with CS prior to its being acquired by UBS (UBS) which contributed to its downfall… The risk remains, of course, that this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy even though DB appears to be a picture of rude health coming into this crisis…https://t.co/no2dz7M6UI
Fed’s Barr calls Silicon Valley Bank failure a ‘textbook case of mismanagement’ The Federal Reserve’s top banking regulator said Monday that the failure of the Silicon Valley Bank was due largely to mismanagement, though he noted that regulation and oversight also need to step up… “To begin, SVB’s failure is a textbook case of mismanagement,” he said. “The bank waited too long to address its problems, and ironically, the overdue actions it finally took to strengthen its balance sheet sparked the uninsured depositor run that led to the bank’s failure.”… https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/27/feds-barr-calls-silicon-valley-bank-failure-a-textbook-case-of-mismanagement.html
@ArthurBenta: The Federal Reserve created over $1 trillion new dollars in its first 95 years of existence ($10.5 bn/yr). Since 2008, the Federal Reserve created over $9 trillion dollars ($642.8 bn/yr). https://twitter.com/ArthurBenta/status/1640215917475799040
As of last Wednesday, the Fed has rescinded about 60% of the QT it commenced in April 2022.
Saudi Aramco boosts China investment with two refinery deals The two deals, announced separately on Sunday and Monday, would see Aramco supplying the two Chinese companies with a combined 690,000 barrels a day of crude oil, bolstering its rank as China’s top provider of the commodity…https://t.co/v2bGSJFh8k
Team Obama-Biden’s antipathy for Saudi Arabia (and Israel) and palpable pining for Iran is greatly reducing US influence in the Middle East and elsewhere.
Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied early on the usual Monday buying and a belief that the banking crisis has subsided. Banks surged in early US trading.
Negative aspects of previous session Fangs declined sharply, the 2nd consecutive decline Oil and gasoline soared
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Bonds declined sharply – good that fear receded or bad for institutions with sizable bond losses?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 3983.95 Previous session High/Low: 4003.83; 3970.49
@KeithMcCullough: > 90% of $SPX companies will be in their blackout period (no buybacks) by Friday
Today – Euphoric buying has returned to the stock market. 0DTE options are being aggressively bought after the NYSE options. As Newton determined, this will continue until some force halts the bullishness. Furthermore, the usual suspects want and need to manipulate stuff higher to embellish Q1 performance.
Barring news or unexpected developments, traders will keep buying and money managers will try to mark up their holdings for the end of Q1 on Friday.
Expected economic data: Feb Wholesale Inventories -0.1% m/m, Retail Inventories +0.2%; Feb Advance Goods Trade -$90.0B; Jan FHFA House Price Index -0.3% m/m; Jan S&P CoreLogic 20-city house prices -0.5% m/m & 2.5% y/y; March Conference Board Consumer Confidence 101; March Richmond Fed Mfg. Index -9; Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr at Senate Banking Com 10:00 ET
ESMs hit +8.50 at 19:55 ET; traders once again are irrationally exuberant for stocks!
@townhallcom: BIDEN IN 2020: You can’t legislate by executive order “unless you’re a dictator!” JOHN KERRY LAST WEEK: “The president is issuing executive orders” to impose his climate agenda. https://t.co/Zkn3SAiMXz
@bennyjohnson: Fox News cuts to Joe Biden because they were told he would address the school shooting that just happened off the top of his speech only to find Joe joking about ice cream and “good looking kids” in the crowd. https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1640427774476206092
@RNCResearch: Biden opens his event: “I eat Jeni’s Ice Cream, chocolate chip. I came down because I heard there was chocolate chip ice cream. By the way, I have a full refrigerator full upstairs.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1640425190394871811
@dannydeurbina: Six Americans were just killed a shooting rampage in a Nashville Christian school and Joe Biden is holding a creepy ASMR stand-up comedy bit in front of a crowd of clapping seals at the White House. America, this is your President. https://twitter.com/dannydeurbina/status/1640429315811581978
Nashville school shooter Audrey Hale identified as transgender and had detailed manifesto (and map) to attack Christian academyhttps://trib.al/LA57peQ
Biden: “I call on Congress again to pass my assault weapons ban.” Biden, Dems, and Libs called for more gun control – before the details about Hale appeared. Police say it was a ‘targeted’ attack. Biden et al played the gun control card after the tragedy; conservatives played the mental illness card.
@seanmdav: The cold-blooded mass murder at a Christian school in Nashville by an apparent transgender person came just days before a planned “Trans Day of Vengeance” organized by the Trans Radical Activist Network. https://www.dailywire.com/news/trans-radicals-plan-day-of-vengeance-in-d-c-alongside-firearms-training This transgenderism insanity cannot be eradicated soon enough. It is a wildly destructive delusional mental illness. Nothing about it is normal or good, and as we saw again today, it doesn’t just destroy the victim suffering from it, it can also destroy the innocent lives of everyone around it.
@charliekirk11: On March 2nd, Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee signed a law banning transgender procedures for children. On March 27th, a transgender female went into a Christian school and murdered 3 children and 3 teachers.
@bennyjohnson: The Colorado Springs shooter identified as non-binary. The Denver shooter identified as trans. The Aberdeen shooter identified as trans. The Nashville shooter identified as trans. One thing is VERY clear: the modern trans movement is radicalizing activists into terrorists. (Where’s the FBI?)
@ggreenwald: Who radicalized the Nashville shooter? What media outlets, pundits and politicians share and spread the murderer’s ideology? This is the twisted game that’s played every time there’s a massacre that presents the opportunity to blame one’s enemies. It can’t be done selectively.
Most of the MSM refused to publish the transgender designation. A few MSM reporters that tweeted the shooter was transgender, later deleted those tweets. When you realize that some US political divisions have become cults, this makes some sense. https://twitter.com/MidnightMitch/status/1640493225910628354/photo/1
@disclosetv: Staffer for U.S. Senator Rand Paul was stabbed multiple times with a knife “in broad daylight” in Washington DC.
@ChadPergram: Sen. Paul: We are relieved to hear the suspect has been arrested. At this time we would ask for privacy so everyone can focus on healing and recovery.
harveyorganblog.com 
