FEB 23/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $13.05 TO $1819.55//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 32 CENTS TO $21.30//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $7.25 TO $941.00//PALLADIUM TOOK A HUGE HIT DOWN $54.75 TO $1437.20//COVID UPDATES: DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//SLAY NEWS//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES//EAST PALESTINE DIASTER UPDATES//SPAIN RECORDS RECORD NO. OF BANKRUPTCIES IN 2022-2023//FED-EX READY TO STRIKE WHICH WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC EFFECT ON WORLD ECONOMY//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 90 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 89 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 100 661 C JP MORGAN 30 685 C RJ OBRIEN 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 1 800 C MAREX SPEC 8 905 C ADM 39 991 H CME 20
TOTAL: 189 189
JPMORGAN STOPPED 30/189
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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2023. CONTRACT: 189 NOTICES FOR 18,900 OZ or 0.5879 TONNES
total notices so far: 15,036 contracts for 1,503,600 oz (46.768 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 6 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 30,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month :866 for 4,330,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $13.05
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////
INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92TONNES
Silver//SLV
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS
AT THE SLV// SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.379 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV
CLOSING INVENTORY: 487.072. MILLION OZ (CORRECTED)
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1388 CONTRACTS TO 125,284 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THE STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.22 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE NOW SURPASSED OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 124,000 OI CONTRACTS RECORDED YESTERDAY. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.22). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS, AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 1581 CONTRACTS. AS WELL, WE HAD 0 NOTICES FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER ( AS THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 6.225 MILLION OZ. WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD: A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 711 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 0.540. MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP// NEW TOTALS STANDING = 4.40 MILLION OZ + 6.225 MILLION OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//TOTAL STANDING 10.655 MILLION OZ//// V) STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL ADDED +517
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 16 days, total 14,778 contracts: OR 73.890 MILLION OZ . (923 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 73.890 MILLION OZ
.
LAST 17 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 73.890/ MILLION OZ/INITIAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1388 DESPITE OUR $0.22 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 711 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAR AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB OF 0.54 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP = NEW STANDING: 4.430 MILLION OZ + 6.225 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK://NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 10.655 MILLION OZ .. WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 2099OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 6 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 30,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 3368 CONTRACTS TO 426,016 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED 26 CONTRACTS. (AS AN ASIDE: HOW CAN YOU ADD CONTRACTS TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING OF CONTRACTS?)
.
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 3368 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $0.60 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 4200 OZ //NEW STANDING: 47.209 TONNES//(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S ) (EFP is the transfer of contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London). TONNES
YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $0,60 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 5215 OI CONTRACTS (16.220 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1847 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 426,016
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5215 CONTRACTS WITH 3368CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1847 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5215 CONTRACTS OR 16.146 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1847 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (3368) TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 5215 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 41.601 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4,200 OZ QUEUE JUMP // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION //4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN// 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
FEB
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB :
40,734 CONTRACTS OR 4073400 OZ OR 126.70 TONNES 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2545 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 126.70 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 126.70/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.57% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247,44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 126.70 TONNES/INITIAL
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF BOTH GOLD (
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1388 CONTRACTS OI TO 125,294 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A RECORD LOW OF 124,080 CONTRACTS TODAY.
EFP ISSUANCE 711 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAR 711 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 711 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1388 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 711 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF 2099 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 10.495 MILLION OZ//
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY $0.22 LOSS IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
4. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
end
5. Other gold/silver commentaries
6. Commodity commentaries//
7/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.67 PTS OR 0.11% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 72.49 PTS OR 0.35% /The Nikkei closed //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.33% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.8984 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.9043// /Oil DOWN TO 74.86dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 81.20 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 C CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 3368 CONTRACTS UP TO 426,016 DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.60. I THINK WE HAVE HIT OUR LOW IN OPEN INTEREST FOR THE YEAR/FEB 22/2023 AT 422,516.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1847 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 1847 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1847 CONTRACTS
WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED TOTAL OF 5215 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1847LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN OF 3368 CONTRACTS..AND THIS GOOD SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED (DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $0.60). WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: FEB (47.209)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.2099 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $0.60) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 5215 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 16.220 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB. (41.219 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 4200 OZ OR 0.1306 TONNES//NEW STANDING INCREASES TO 47.209 tonnes … ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $0.60.
WE HAD +24 ADDED CONTRACTS COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5215 CONTRACTS OR 521500 OZ OR 16.220 TONNES
Estimated gold comex today 173,755// //poor
final gold volumes/yesterday 149,878/// poor
INITIAL STANDINGS FOR FEB 2023 COMEX GOLD //FEB 23//
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
15,036 notices 1,503600 46.768TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 1
i)Into JPMorgan: 13,393.975 oz (real gold)
total deposits: 13,393.975 oz
customer withdrawals: 3
i) out of Brinks 160.750 oz 5 kilobars
ii) Out of HSBC: 10,303.684 oz
iii) out of Manfra: 31,984.155 oz
total withdrawals: 42,452.592 oz real gold except the 5 kilobars form Birnks
in tonnes: 1.32 tonnes
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.
For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 331 contracts having LOST 165 contracts. We had 207 notices
filed on Wednesday so we gained 42 contracts or an additional 4200 oz will stand searching for metal at the comex
March lost 11 contracts to stand at 2029.
April gained 119 contracts down to 332,344
We had 189 notice(s) filed today for 18900 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 189 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer notice(s) was (were) stopped 30/ Received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account 3 and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB. /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (15.036 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (FEBRUARY 331 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 189 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,517,800 OZ OR 47.209 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of February.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB contract month:
No of notices filed so far (15,036 x 100 oz+ 331 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (189)x 100 oz} which equals 1,513,600 oz standing OR 47.209 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 47.209TONNES. SO JUST LIKE LAST MONTH WE START WITH A LOW INITIAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING BUT THIS WILL GROW AS THE MONTH PROCEEDS TO ITS CONCLUSION.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 21,702,817.120 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 10,976,047.431 (341.401 tonnes)..dropping fast
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,726,769.689 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,196,591 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 286.05 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
FEB 23/2023//INITIAL. SILVER CONTRACT FOR FEBRUARY
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,095,488.290 oz brinks CNT Delaware HSBC Loomis
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
597,155.710 oz Delaware JPMorgan Manfra
No of oz served today (contracts)
6 CONTRACT(S) (30,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
20 contracts (100,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
866 contracts (4,330,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 3 deposits into the customer account
i)Into JPMorgan: 578,057.403 oz
ii) Into Delaware: 13,058,667
iii) Into Manfra: 6039.640 oz
Total deposits: 597,155.710 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 147.167 million oz/287.959 million =51.09% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals: 5
i) Out of Brinks 65,886.560 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 125,053.402 oz
iii) Out of Delaware: 3896.100 oz
iv) Out of Loomis 300,189.040 oz
Total withdrawals; 1,095,488.290 oz
adjustments: 0
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 31.873MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIG. 287,959 million o
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF FEB/2023 OI: 26 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 2 CONTRACT(S.).
WE HAD 4 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND AT THE COMEX
March LOST 6980 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 29,020 contracts
April GAINED 28 CONTRACTS TO STAND at 200.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY:6 for 30,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 82,737// very good
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 79,636 contracts ( very good)
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEBRUARY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 866 x 5,000 oz = 4,330,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB(26) and the number of notices served upon today 6 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the FEB./2023 contract month:866 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB 26 – number of notices served upon today (6) x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB. contract month equates 4.430 million oz + PREVIOUS 6.225 MILLION OZ ( EXCHANGE FOR RISK) = 10.655 MILLION OZ//(TOTAL OZ OF SILVER STANDING).
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 22/WITH GOLD DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES
FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES
FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES
FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.9 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.82 TONNES
FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP $5.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.92 TONNES
FEB 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES
FEB 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $52.55 TODAY: STRANGE: BIG CHANGES AGAIN IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.24 TONNES
FEB 2/WITH GOLD $10.95 TODAY: BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES
FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 918.50 TONNES
JAN 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES
JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.55 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.37 TONNES
JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $7.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .28 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.34 TONNES
JAN 24/WITH GOLD UP $7.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $0.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.06 TONNES
JAN 20/WITH GOLD UP $4.75 TODAY;BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $16.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 910.98TONNES
JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.95 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.9 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.24 TONNES
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.45 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 13/WITH GOLD UP $22.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.14 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $20.55 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.43 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.17 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $ 8.60 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD//.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.33 TONNES
JAN 6/WITH GOLD UP $28.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.05 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.77 TONNES
JANUARY 4/WITH GOLD UP $32.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD UP $20.00 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:STRANGE: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES FORM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.64 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 919.92 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.379 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.072 MILLION OZ//
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 689,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.693 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.5363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.382 MILLION OZ//
FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.819 MILLION OZ/
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//
FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//
FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//
FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//
CLOSING INVENTORY 485.693 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards:
END
3. Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries//
Craig Hemke at Sprott talks about gold’s first pullback of 2023
(Craig Hemke)
Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Gold’s first pullback of 2023
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-02-22 16:29Section: Daily Dispatches
By Craig Hemke Sprott Money, Toronto Wednesday, February 22, 2023
In our annual forecast printed in January, we tried to warn everyone that although the Comex precious metals were set up for a very strong 2023, the first half of the year would include several false starts and fakeouts.
As if right on schedule, you just got your first one. …
Jan Nieuwenhuijs: Estimating the true size of China’s gold reserves
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-02-23 11:39Section: Daily Dispatches
11:40a ET Thursday, February 23, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Gold market analyst Jan Nieuwenhuijs today gives his estimate of the gold reserves held by the People’s Bank of China: twice the tonnage officially reported.
Perhaps more important Nieuwenhuijs documents how China’s central banks and central banks in Europe appear to be working together to match their gold reserves with their nations’ gross domestic product in preparation for some sort of new gold standard or gold price targeting system.
Nieuwenhuijs notes that China’s central bank especially has an interest in keeping the gold price down while it acquires the metal necessary to reach a balance with its GDP.
Nieuwenhuijs also essentially reminds us that gold is the secret knowledge of the financial universe, a mechanism surreptitiously used by governments for purposes like manipulating currency and other markets — a subject that simply cannot be addressed by mainstream financial news organizations and most market analysts who aspire to respectability.
Nieuwenhuijs’ analysis is headlined “Estimating the True Size of China’s Gold Reserves” and it’s posted at the Gainesville Coins internet site here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
end
Your weekend reading material//a must read!!
Alasdair Macleod…(GATA)
Alasdair Macleod: Central bank digital currencies — the good, the bad, and the ugly
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-02-23 11:54Section: Daily Dispatches
By Alasdair Macleod GoldMoney, Toronto Thursday, February 23, 2023
There has been much comment over the likelihood that central bank digital currencies will be introduced. In this essay conclude they are unnecessary — a red herring. But this does allow us to discuss their possible relevance to a new Asian super-currency.
This month the Bank of England, in partnership with the UK Treasury, produced a white paper on the subject, which considerably waters down the objectives identified by the Bank for International Settlements. The British proposal is a bad idea because it is pointless.
I will describe how a new gold-backed currency can entirely do away with the U.S. dollar for trade settlements and commodity purchases between participating nations in the Russia-China axis.
Some informed commentary on the topic suggests that a blockchain will be involved, and Sberbank, the Russian state-owned lender, has already issued a gold-linked fund designed to be available to the public by being compatible with ethereum. Perhaps the bank is front-running developments…
The ugly side in our title is found in the BIS’ dystopian proposals, which see CBDCs as an opportunity to allow central banks to double down on their attempts to manage economic outcomes while restricting personal freedom.
Messing about with fiat currency alternatives such as CBDCs could end up revealing the fragility of the former. CBDCs will take years to implement in any major currency, during which fiat currencies led by the dollar are likely to fail anyway. …
Poor guy: the charges keep adding up. I think he was a pawn for the Democrats
(zerohedge)
Sam Bankman-Fried Charged With Conspiracy To Make Unlawful Political Donations, Defraud Federal Election Commission
THURSDAY, FEB 23, 2023 – 09:46 AM
Disgraced FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was charged on Thursday with 12 new counts, including illegally making over 300 political contributions to the tune of tens of millions of dollars through straw donors and using corporate funds.
“Bankman-Fried’s use of straw donors allowed him to evade contribution limits on individual donations to candidates to whom he had already donated,” reads the indictment, which adds that the “fraudulent conduct” impaired the FEC’s functioning.
“In dozens of instances, BANKMAN-FRIED’s use of straw donors allowed him to evade contribution limits on individual donations to candidates to whom he had already donated.”
“As a result of this fraudulent conduct,” SBF and his co-conspirators caused false information to be reported by campaigns and PACs to the FEC.”
SBF had previously only faced charges of conspiracy to commit wire fraud on customers and lenders, as well as commodities fraud, securities fraud, money laundering, conspiracy to defraud the United States, and violating campaign finance laws.
According to the new indictment, Bankman-Fried and others, while attempting to open a bank account, “falsely represented to a financial institution that the account would be used for trading and market making,” when in fact it was used to receive and transmit customer funds.
SBF and co-conspirators “agreed to and did make corporate contributions to candidates and committees in the Southern District of New York that were reported in the name of another person,” the indictment continues.
FTX’s former CEO wanted to give at least $1 million to a pro-LGBTQ political action group, but couldn’t find anyone bisexual or gay at the company whom he trusted, the document said. One unnamed executive, believed to be Nishad Singh, was urged to make the donation, while another right-wing executive, apparently Ryan Salame, did so for Republican causes, the document said. –Coindesk
Bankman-Fried was the second largest individual donor during the 2022 US midterm elections, contributing $39 million to various Democrat causes.
It wasn’t just Bankman-Fried that made donations to politicians with $72 million overall donated by FTX execs…
Here is the full list of politicians who received donations from FTX executives
end
1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8984
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9043
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.67 PTS OR 0.11%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 72.49 PTS OR 0.35%
2. Nikkei closed
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 104.46 Euro RISES TO 1.0613 UP 8 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.5000!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 135.02/JAPANESE YEN RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK.
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: DOWN-// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.5370%***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.449%*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.584…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.393//(ITALY WORSE THAN GREECE?)
3j Gold at $1837.95//silver at: 21.84 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 00/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 75.000//
3m oil into the 74 dollar handle for WTI and 81 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 135.02/10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, REMAINS AT .5000% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9322–as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9893well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.948% UP 2 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.938 UP 1 BASIS PTS//INVERTED TO THE 10 YEAR!!
UK 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.7015 DOWN 1 BASIS PT
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18,87…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: 3.6825% UP 8 BASIS PTS
end
i.b Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
S&P Futures Rebound Above 4,000, Boosted By Surging Nvidia
THURSDAY, FEB 23, 2023 – 08:02 AM
US futures rebounded from yesterday’s post FOMC selloff, rising back over 4,000 as concern about aggressive monetary tightening eased and Nvidia soared 10% after giving a bullish revenue outlook. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were up 1% as of 7:45 a.m. ET while S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%. The underlying stock gauges closed mixed on Wednesday as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting signaled its determination to keep hiking interest rates to combat inflation. The tech rally may be short-lived thought: treasuries edged lower again, reversing yesterday’s gains. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index recovered from earlier lows, pressuring most Group-of-10 currencies. Gold was little changed, while oil advanced. Bitcoin rose nearly 2% following two days of losses, before fading some of its gains.
In premarket trading, tech stocks were among the best performers, with chipmaker Nvidia, which has a 4.2% weighting in the Nasdaq 100, surging 10% after it reported Q4 results that beat expectations and gave a bullish revenue outlook for the current quarter. Growth in sales of chips for data centers has helped the company weather a slowdown in the PC market as it gears up for an expected boom in artificial intelligence. By contrast, EV maker Lucid plunged 8.1% in premarket trading after it posted worse-than-expected results in the final months of what it called a “challenging” year. Unity Software dropped 7.3% after the company’s revenue forecasts trailed consensus estimates. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
EBay shares fall ~5% in US premarket trading after the online auction and retail company’s 2023 guidance came in weaker than expected, with a more difficult macro picture set to weigh and a “challenging” margin outlook.
Enovix shares rise ~gr15% in premarket trading after the electronic-components maker reported revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average estimate. Analysts note the earnings call reiterated milestones disclosed in January’s presentation and progress on cash.
Graphite Bio soars 16% in premarket trading after the biotech company unveiled plans to trim its workforce by 50% while exploring “strategic alternatives.”.
Teladoc shares fall ~7% in US premarket trading after the online health services firm guided to a slowdown in revenue growth, which analysts said more than offset an improved margin outlook.
Unity Software shares drop as much as 8.9% in premarket trading after the software maker’s first-quarter and full-year revenue forecasts trailed consensus estimates. The guidance was the main point of discussion among analysts, with Citi saying it might weaken sentiment toward the stock.
Moderna Inc. shares climb 2.9% in postmarket trading after the personalized mRNA cancer vaccine that it’s developing in combination with Merck & Co.’s flagship immunotherapy, Keytruda, received Breakthrough Therapy Designation from the US Food and Drug Administration.
Etsy gained 6% in extended trading, after the online retailer focused on handmade and vintage items reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations. It also gave an outlook that analysts see as mixed.
Rackspace Technology gained 8% in postmarket trading after reporting adjusted earnings per share and revenue for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimates.
Nvidia provided “an excellent report and solid outperformance amid weakening macro trends,” CJ Muse, an analyst at Evercore ISI, wrote in a note. Still, others saw this as merely another modest bounce in an otherwise bearish slump. Further policy tightening “will create some small recessionary result probably in the third or fourth quarter of 2023, but we will still be in a scenario of soft landing,” said Stephane Monier, chief investment officer at Banque Lombard Odier. “In that scenario we expect the S&P 500 to be around 3,900,” he said on Bloomberg TV. “We are currently underweight US equities as we are expecting a little bit of a correction in the weeks to come,” Monier said. “And we have a strong preference for Asian equities, particularly China but not only.”
After months of divergence over the perceived path of monetary tightening, the Fed and markets are increasingly getting aligned in their expectations, reducing the scope for hawkish shocks. While the minutes and comments by Fed officials including James Bullard reiterated a continuing preference for rate hikes, they didn’t say anything that wasn’t factored in by the market’s aggressive repricing of Fed bets in recent weeks.
“One of our big concerns coming into this year was the market was anticipating an event that wasn’t likely to occur, that being a dovish Fed pivot,” Danielle Poli, co-portfolio manager of the diversified income fund for Oaktree Capital Management, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “The market has woken back up a little bit in these last two weeks.”
US Jobless claims data due Thursday may help shine a light on the strength of the labor market, which has remained stubbornly robust through the rate-hiking cycle. Eurozone inflation data due today will also help investors outline the health of the European economy.
European stocks struggled for direction as investors remained wary of the prospect of additional monetary tightening by the Fed when the latest Fed minutes revealed that a “few” officials favored a larger half-point hike. The Stoxx 600 was up less than 0.1% with autos, tech and media the best performing sectors. The FTSE loses 0.4%. Here are some of the biggest European movers:
Rolls-Royce shares soar as much as 20%, the most since November 2020, after the engine manufacturer’s full-year earnings and forecast topped expectations on all metrics
Axa climbed 3.8%, the top performing stock on the Stoxx 600 Insurance Index, after the French insurer announced it could buy back up to €1.1 billion worth of shares
HeidelbergCement rises as much as 3.1% as analysts say the outlook is positive for the German construction giant, noting diminishing energy cost headwinds from 2022
Accor shares rise as much as 2.8%, after the hospitality company reported full-year Ebitda and dividend per share that was ahead of analyst estimates
Bouygues shares rise as much as 3.9%, after the French conglomerate posted what Citi analysts described as a “solid” set of numbers, with top line ahead of consensus and margin up
Spectris rises as much as 7.6%, the most since April 2022, after the precision-measurement specialist released full- year results which Shore Capital says were a beat
Anglo American drops as much as 2.8% after the mining giant revealed a significant writedown at its Woodsmith polyhalite project
Munich Re slumped as much as 6.2%, the most since July, as analysts pointed to weaker underlying property and casualty underwriting despite an overall earnings beat for the German reinsurer
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks snapped a two-day decline as traders focused on US economic data due Thursday, while shares in Hong Kong entered correction territory. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan Index rose as much as 0.9%, before paring gains to 0.3% in afternoon trading. South Korean shares were among the biggest advancers in the region as the Bank of Korea paused rate hikes for the first time in a year. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell into correction amid growing geopolitical concerns and doubts over the strength of China’s economy. Japan was closed for a holiday. The US will release data on economic growth, consumption and employment, providing more clues on the Fed’s policy path.
The MSCI Asia gauge is trading about 6% lower than a peak reached in late January as investors assess higher bond yields and China’s path to recovery. Still, a gauge of tech stocks soared as the US 10-year Treasury yield eased toward 3.9% overnight, although it reversed the decline in the afternoon. Minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting showed that officials continued to anticipate further increases in borrowing costs, although most were in favor of smaller rate increases. Fed’s Williams Says Fed’s 2% Inflation Goal Key to Taming Prices The FOMC “sounded hawkish at the margin,” Saxo Capital Markets strategists wrote in a note. “While this risk of a recession was noted, data since the meeting including the most recent PMI numbers this week have continued to ease recession concerns.”
Australian stocks declined again, as the S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.4% to close at 7,285.40, extending losses for a third day, dragged by mining shares and banks. National carrier Qantas was among the day’s laggards after the airline flagged higher-than-expected spending on planes, while Eagers, the top performer, rallied after the Australian auto dealer said demand for new cars remains strong. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.8% to 11,888.50.
Indian stocks ended lower after a volatile session as monthly derivative contracts expired on Thursday. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.2% to 59,605.80 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by a similar measure. The gauges have now dropped for five straight sessions, the longest run of declines since Sept. 29. The benchmark Sensex has nearly erased its gains for February, while the Nifty has fallen to its lowest levels since Oct. 18. All but two of ten companies controlled by the Adani Group closed lower as concerns linger about the conglomerate’s corporate structure. Expiry of monthly options also weighed on the stocks. India’s finance ministry on Thursday said that if predictions on the return of El Nino conditions are accurate, that could lead to a deficient monsoon, resulting in lower agricultural output and higher prices. Sixteen of 20 sector sub-gauges compiled by BSE Ltd. declined. Realty firms and utilities were the worst performers, while metal and services sector companies advanced. For the week, all but fast-moving consumer-goods companies have retreated. HDFC Bank contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline on Thursday, decreasing 0.7%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 13 rose and 17 fell.
In FX, the BBG Dollar Index traded marginally weaker, having come off day’s lows; the New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar are vying for top sport among the G-10’s, while the pound was the worst.
The euro edged lower, extending its slump into a fourth day, and touched 1.0587, the lowest since Jan. 6. The German yield curve twist-flattened very modestly. Three-week implied volatility in euro-dollar is up a third day for the first time this month as the tenor now captures the ECB meeting on March 16 and the release of US CPI data two days earlier
The pound slumped. Gilts underperformed European peers, with yields rising around 3bps across the curve, as traders added to BOE pricing after policymaker Catherine Mann said more interest-rate rises are needed to clamp down on inflation as she dismissed talk of a looming “pivot” to easier monetary policy
The Australian dollar climbed from a seven-week low as dip-buyers emerged and business spending beat estimates
In rates, Treasuries were under pressure as US trading day begins, with yields still inside Wednesday’s ranges. UST yields are higher by as much as 2.4bp in 10-year sector; Wednesday’s ranges included YTD highs for most tenors; the 10Y TSY rose 4bps to 9.449%, near session highs. The week’s auction cycle concludes with 7-year note sale at 1 p.m. New York time, last coupon auction until March 8 and poised to draw a record high yield. WI 7-year yield 4.08%; record high stop was 4.027% in October. In Europe, gilts underperformed their German counterparts after hawkish remarks from BOE policymaker Mann. UK 10-year yields are up 4bps while the German equivalent is up 2bps.
Traders are now pricing in a Fed peak rate of 5.55% by July, compared with 4.90% they were betting on at the start of year. However, Fed officials haven’t grown more aggressive during this time: Fed Bank of St. Louis President Bullard reiterated his earlier stance, saying “I’m still at 5.375%.” Markets fully price in a 25 basis-point hike in March, but assign a 24% probability for a 50-point hike.
In crypto, bitcoin is firmer on the session having successfully reclaimed the USD 24k mark after losing the figure on Wednesday, though it remains shy of recent USD 25k+ levels.
In commodities, oil gained — after the longest run of losses this year — as traders took stock of a mixed demand outlook of tightening US monetary policy and China’s reopening. WTI rose 0.7% to trade near $74.45. Spot gold is little changed around $1,826.
Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include the final CPI release from the Euro Area in January, which came in just hotter than the Flash print, as well as the second estimate of US GDP in Q4. Otherwise, we’ll get the US weekly initial jobless claims, and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index for February. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bostic and Daly, the ECB’s de Cos, and the BoE’s Cunliffe and Mann. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Booking Holdings and Moderna.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 4,012.25
MXAP up 0.1% to 160.54
MXAPJ up 0.3% to 523.26
Nikkei down 1.3% to 27,104.32
Topix down 1.1% to 1,975.25
Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 20,351.35
Shanghai Composite down 0.1% to 3,287.48
Sensex down 0.3% to 59,551.16
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 7,285.40
Kospi up 0.9% to 2,439.09
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 462.61
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.53%
Euro down 0.1% to $1.0593
Brent Futures up 0.1% to $80.72/bbl
Gold spot up 0.0% to $1,826.01
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 104.62
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
The global economy is in a better place today than many predicted months ago, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday, while reiterating her calls for support to Ukraine on the eve of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion. BBG
The EU and the US are close to an agreement on raw materials used in batteries that would allow EU companies access to some of the same benefits in President Joe Biden’s green investment plan as Washington’s free-trade partners, according to the bloc’s trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis. BBG
Sweden’s government budget is likely to be in the red for the first time since the pandemic hit in 2020, as tax income is set to drop and large-scale electricity-price support weighs on finances, according to the National Debt Office. BBG
Hong Kong’s CPI for Jan overshoots the St, coming in at +2.4% Y/Y (vs. the consensus forecast of +2.1% and up from +2% in Dec). BBG
BABA +4% pre mkt reported solid Q4 upside, including revenue +2% to RMB247.7B (vs. the St RMB245.8B), EBITDA +15% to RMB59.16B (vs. the St $RMB53.5B), and EPS +14% to RMB19.26 (vs. the St 16.57). Revenue upside was driven by the core China Commerce business along with Int’l Commerce and Cainiao Logistics while Local Consumer Services and Cloud Computing fell a bit short. During Q4 the company repurchased 45.4 million ADSs for approximately US$3.3 billion. They still have $21.3B left on the buyback (as of 12/31). BBG
Chinese leader Xi Jinping is preparing to shake up the leadership of the country’s financial system, installing key associates to run the central bank and reviving a Communist Party body to tighten political control over financial affairs, according to people familiar with the discussions. WSJ
Washington is considering releasing intelligence showing that China is considering supplying weapons to Russia as part of a campaign aimed at deterring Beijing from intervening militarily. WSJ
South Korea’s central bank left rates on hold, as expected, joining the Bank of Canada as the second monetary authority to complete its hiking cycle. RTRS
The European Commission has banned its staff from using the TikTok app on their work-issued devices, widening across the Atlantic a patchwork of similar, limited bans affecting U.S. officials. WSJ
Europe’s final CPI for Jan was revised higher on core (from +5.2% to +5.3%) while the headline figure of +8.6% was kept unchanged. BBG
The US oil buildup continued. Inventories bumped up by just under 10 million barrels last week for a ninth weekly increase, the API is said to have reported. That would take total holdings to the highest in 21 months if confirmed by the EIA. More bearish pressures: Brent’s prompt timespread narrowed sharply yesterday, signaling a softer market, and the nearest spread for WTI indicates ample supply. BBG
New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams on Wednesday said the U.S. central bank is “absolutely” committed to bringing inflation back down to its 2% target over the next few years, by bringing demand down in line with constrained supply. RTRS
After peaking at $47.7 trillion in June, the total value of US homes declined by $2.3 trillion, or 4.9%, in the second half of 2022, according to real estate brokerage Redfin. That’s the largest drop in percentage terms since the 2008 housing crisis, when home values slumped by 5.8% from June to December. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pacific stocks lacked firm direction with price action mostly rangebound amid thinned conditions due to the holiday closure in Japan and following the mixed performance stateside where the major indices faded mild gains in the aftermath of the FOMC minutes. ASX 200 was the laggard with the index weakened by underperformance in the mining industry after recent declines in commodity prices and a slump in Rio Tinto’s profits, although losses were limited as participants also digested better-than-expected capex data. KOSPI was the biggest gainer amid recent currency weakness and after the BoK kept its rate unchanged for the first time in a year, as unanimously expected. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were indecisive with stocks initially led higher by strength in tech and after China vowed to improve measures to cut taxes and fees, although the gains were briefly pared amid ongoing global frictions and the PBoC’s liquidity drain.
Top Asian News
BoK maintained its base rate at 3.5%, as expected, while it noted uncertainties surrounding the policy decision are high and it deemed it warranted to keep a restrictive policy stance for a considerable time. BoK Governor Rhee said board member Cho Yoon-Je dissented and that the decision should not be taken as indicating the tightening cycle is over. Furthermore, Rhee stated that five members wanted to keep the chance open for the terminal rate to reach 3.75% and that the decision was based on the expectation that inflation will head down from March, while he added that it is time to stop and watch if the inflation trend goes along the expected path.
Chinese Commerce Ministry says the consumer market recovery momentum was strong in January, will take more measures to restore and expand consumption.
China is to shake up its financial system, according to WSJ; Citic Group Chairman Zhu Hexin is reportedly the leading candidate for PBoC governor, according to sources.
PLDT Said to Weigh Data Center Stake Sale After Spending Overrun
Janus Henderson Bets Big on Hedge Funds, Alts After Outflows
Astra Clinches Deal for China Drug to Boost Cancer Pipeline
European bourses are firmer on the session with a hefty earnings docket dictating action after an uninspiring APAC handover, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%. However, the FTSE 100 -0.5% is the exception following pressure from Anglo American and BAE Systems post earnings, though this is offset a touch by marked outperformance in Rolls Royce. Stateside, futures are broadly-speaking in-fitting with Europe though the NQ +0.7% outperforms given tailwinds from NVIDIA’s after-market update.
Top European News
BoE’s Mann says failing to do enough now risks the worst of both worlds – the higher inflation and lower activity – as monetary policy will have to stay tighter for longer. Believe that more tightening is needed, and caution that a pivot is not imminent. In her view preponderance of turning points is not yet in the data. BoE should weigh inflation more highly in our reaction function. Adding, she does not think UK monetary policy is in a restrictive stance particularly.
Axa Plans $1.2 Billion Buyback as Underlying Earnings Rise
Ukraine Latest: EU Rushes on Sanctions; Russians Still Back War
Eni Posts Record Annual Profit on High Oil and Gas Prices
Apollo Mulls $750 Million First Boston Leveraged-Finance Bet
EssilorLuxottica Falls After Profit Growth Slows in Second Half
WPP CEO Says AI Already ‘Fundamental’ to Advertising Giant
FX
The DXY continues to grind higher at the top-end of 104.30-65 parameters to the mixed fortune of peers.
Antipodeans are the modest outperformers with AUD benefitting from overnight data and NZD revisiting post-RBNZ highs amid commentary from Governor Orr; AUD/USD and NZD/USD printed peaks of 0.6841 and 0.6251 respectively.
Despite modest upside following hawkish commentary from BoE’s Mann, GBP is the incremental laggard vs USD, though Cable remains comfortably above 1.20 within 1.2015-74 boundaries.
Elsewhere, EUR was unreactive to unsurprising upwards revisions to January’s EZ HICP while the JPY is little changed ahead of domestic CPI and Ueda’s Lower House appearance; pivoting 1.06 and 134.90 respectively.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9028 vs exp. 6.9028 (prev. 6.8759)
Fixed Income
Gilts are the incremental laggards post-Mann and down to a new 101.26 session low with the Sonia strip similarly dented; market pricing for a 25bp BoE hike in March is around the 95%, in-fitting with recent sessions.
Within the EZ, the hawkish direction remains in-play with Bunds at the lower-end of 133.92 to 134.41 parameters; similarly, USTs are underpressure ahead of 7yr supply and commentary from non-voters Bostic and Daly.
Commodities
WTI and Brent April futures are consolidating following another hefty session of losses on Wednesday which saw both benchmarks settle lower by almost USD 2.50/bbl apiece.
Nat Gas futures experienced modest divergence with TTF fairly contained while Henry Hub is firmer as attention turns to potential cold weather state-side ahead.
Exxon posted USD 2.5bln after-tax earnings in Kazakhstan and produced 246k bpd there for 2022, while it alerted against potential risks of disruptions of Kazakhstan oil through the CPC pipeline.
Spot gold has drifted towards the bottom of its intraday range as the Dollar picked up this morning, with the intraday low just under yesterday’s USD 1,823.56/oz trough
Geopolitics
Russian Defence Ministry accused Ukraine of planning to stage an ‘armed provocation’ in the near future against Transnistria, Moldova and noted that it is ready to respond to any changes in the situation, according to a Telegram and RIA news agency.
Russian President Putin said Moscow will pay increased attention to bolstering the country’s nuclear forces and will start mass deliveries of Zirkon sea-launched hypersonic missiles, according to Reuters.
US President Biden said Russian President Putin’s suspension of the New START treaty is a big mistake and is not very responsible, while Biden added that he does not read into Russian President Putin’s comments that he’s thinking of using nuclear weapons and sees no change in Russia’s nuclear posture, according to an interview with ABC News.
US mulls releasing intelligence on China’s potential arms transfer to Russia, according to WSJ.
Russian Defense Ministry plane has reportedly crashed near Belgorod, Russia, via AJA Breaking citing Tass.
US Event Calendar
08:30: 4Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9%
4Q Personal Consumption, est. 1.9%, prior 2.1%
4Q GDP Price Index, est. 3.5%, prior 3.5%
4Q PCE Core QoQ, est. 3.9%, prior 3.9%
08:30: Feb. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 200,000, prior 194,000
Feb. Continuing Claims, est. 1.7m, prior 1.7m
08:30: Jan. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.25, prior -0.49
11:00: Feb. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -2, prior -1
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Although markets have stabilised after Tuesday’s sell-off, the release of the FOMC minutes yesterday still led the S&P 500 (-0.16%) to lose ground for a 4th consecutive session, marking the longest run of declines of 2023 so far. Admittedly, the minutes were always going to feel a bit stale given the strong payrolls and CPI data as well as the upward revisions that have transpired since the meeting, but there were still some insights to be gleaned. In particular, they showed that “almost all” participants favoured downshifting to a 25bp hike, whilst “a few” still wanted a 50bp move. Furthermore, many on the committee “observed that a policy stance that proved to be insufficiently restrictive could halt recent progress in moderating inflationary pressures, leading inflation to remain above the Committee’s 2 percent objective for a longer period, and pose a risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored.” That follows recent data prints indicating that policy may not yet be fully restrictive. And on financial conditions, the minutes noted that “a number of participants observed that financial conditions had eased in recent months, which some noted could necessitate a tighter stance of monetary policy.”
Following the minutes, pricing for the Fed’s terminal rate closed at its highest level of this cycle to date, with futures expecting a rate of 5.37% at the July meeting, ending the day up +0.5bps higher. Overall though, the curve was little changed, with the end-2023 rate for December down by -1.1bps to 5.18% by the close. In turn, that prompted US Treasuries to pare back their earlier gains, with the 10yr yield moving off its lows for the day prior to the minutes to only close down -3.7bps at 3.92%. Those swings were even more evident looking at the 2 year yield, which was down -7.1bps in the early US afternoon before spiking +4.1bps to end the day down -2.9bps at 4.69%.
The perception that the minutes had a hawkish tilt meant that market-based measures of US inflation expectations moved lower in response, having been on a consistent run higher over recent weeks. For instance, at one point yesterday the 2yr inflation breakeven was on track to close above 3% for the first time in over 6 months, before closing -1.9bps lower at 2.97%. Bear in mind it was only on January 18 that it closed at 2.04%, so the last month has seen a serious reappraisal about the likely path of inflation over the next couple of years. That’s been echoed at longer time horizons as well, with the 10yr breakeven on track to close at its highest level since early November yesterday just ahead of the minutes, before falling -4.1bps to 2.60%.
Ahead of the Fed minutes, we heard separately from St Louis Fed President Bullard who said in a CNBC interview that “I’m still at 5.375%” in terms of where he wanted to take rates. That would be 75bps above their current levels, and is roughly in line with where current market pricing is expecting terminal to get to. After the close, we then heard from New York Fed President Williams, who reiterated his previous stance that inflation would return to trend in the next “few years”. He noted that goods prices have come down, but not as quickly as he had hoped. He also echoed the FOMC minutes by emphasising they did not want the “inflation expectations anchor to slip.”
When it comes to the Fed’s hiking cycle, another interesting datapoint came from the Mortgage Bankers Association, whose index of home-purchase applications fell to its lowest level since 1995 in the week ending February 17. That comes as mortgage rates have begun to rise again following their decline at the end of last year, with the MBA’s data for a 30-year contract showing rates have gone up by +44bps in the last two weeks, which is the biggest two-week increase since September.
US equities had fluctuated between moderate gains and losses throughout the day, before moving lower following the FOMC minutes with the S&P 500 down -0.16%. The largest underperformers were mostly made up of cyclicals such as Real Estate (-1.02%), Transportation (-0.99%), and Energy (-0.77%), but also some defensives like Food & Staples (-1.15%). The best performers were led by Autos (+1.34%) due in large part to Tesla (+1.77%), and the NASDAQ (+0.13%) posted a modest gain as well.
Over in Europe, markets had similarly put in a pretty subdued performance ahead of the Fed minutes, with the STOXX 600 down a further -0.33%. That said, this marked a recovery from its earlier lows, when it had been down -1.03% during the European morning before recovering into the afternoon. It was much the same story for bonds, with yields on 10yr bunds as high as 2.57% intraday before closing -0.8bps lower at 2.52%. Those more positive moves came as we had further evidence that the economic situation was improving in Europe with the release of the Ifo Institute’s latest business climate indicator for February. That rose to 91.1 in February (vs 91.2 expected), which marked its 4th consecutive monthly advance and is its highest level since June. The expectations component also hit a 1-year high of 88.5 (vs. 88.4 expected), although the current assessment dipped slightly to 94.1 (vs. 94.9 expected).
Overnight in Asia, it’s a quieter session given the Japanese holiday today, but equity markets have remained subdued as in the US and Europe. For instance, the Hang Seng is up just +0.01% this morning, whilst the Shanghai Comp (-0.11%) and the CSI 300 (-0.11%) have both posted modest declines. The main exception to that pattern has come from the KOSPI (+1.01%), which follows the Bank of Korea’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged for the first time in a year, holding at 3.5%. The BoK’s Governor said that one member wanted a 25bp increase, and also that “I hope the hold this time isn’t going to be seen as meaning the rate-hike stance is over”. In response, the South Korean Won has strengthened by +0.62% against the US Dollar this morning. And looking forward, US equity futures are pointing to a better performance today, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.43%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.79%) posting decent gains.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the final CPI release from the Euro Area in January, as well as the second estimate of US GDP in Q4. Otherwise, we’ll get the US weekly initial jobless claims, and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index for February. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bostic and Daly, the ECB’s de Cos, and the BoE’s Cunliffe and Mann. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Booking Holdings and Moderna.
AND NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
NQ outperforms given NVIDIA strength, Gilts lag post-Mann – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, FEB 23, 2023 – 06:33 AM
European bourses are firmer on the session with a hefty earnings docket dictating action after an uninspiring APAC handover.
Stateside, futures are broadly-speaking in-fitting with Europe though the NQ +0.7% outperforms given tailwinds from NVIDIA’s after-market update.
The DXY continues to grind higher at the top-end of 104.30-65 parameters to the mixed fortune of peers; Antipodeans outperform and GBP lags despite Mann.
Gilts are the incremental laggards post-Mann and down to a new 101.26 session low with the Sonia strip similarly dented, EGBs & USTs in-fitting though incrementally more contained.
BoE’s Mann says she does not think UK monetary policy is in a restrictive stance particularly.
WTI and Brent April futures are consolidating following another hefty session of losses, Henry Hub firmer, spot gold contained but erring lower.
Looking ahead, highlights include US GDP/PCE Q4 (2nd Estimate), IJC Japanese CPI, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic & Daly, BoE’s Cunliffe, Supply from US, Earning from Moderna.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are firmer on the session with a hefty earnings docket dictating action after an uninspiring APAC handover, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%.
However, the FTSE 100 -0.5% is the exception following pressure from Anglo American and BAE Systems post earnings, though this is offset a touch by marked outperformance in Rolls Royce.
Stateside, futures are broadly-speaking in-fitting with Europe though the NQ +0.7% outperforms given tailwinds from NVIDIA’s after-market update.
The DXY continues to grind higher at the top-end of 104.30-65 parameters to the mixed fortune of peers.
Antipodeans are the modest outperformers with AUD benefitting from overnight data and NZD revisiting post-RBNZ highs amid commentary from Governor Orr; AUD/USD and NZD/USD printed peaks of 0.6841 and 0.6251 respectively.
Despite modest upside following hawkish commentary from BoE’s Mann, GBP is the incremental laggard vs USD, though Cable remains comfortably above 1.20 within 1.2015-74 boundaries.
Elsewhere, EUR was unreactive to unsurprising upwards revisions to January’s EZ HICP while the JPY is little changed ahead of domestic CPI and Ueda’s Lower House appearance; pivoting 1.06 and 134.90 respectively.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.9028 vs exp. 6.9028 (prev. 6.8759)
Gilts are the incremental laggards post-Mann and down to a new 101.26 session low with the Sonia strip similarly dented; market pricing for a 25bp BoE hike in March is around the 95%, in-fitting with recent sessions.
Within the EZ, the hawkish direction remains in-play with Bunds at the lower-end of 133.92 to 134.41 parameters; similarly, USTs are underpressure ahead of 7yr supply and commentary from non-voters Bostic and Daly.
WTI and Brent April futures are consolidating following another hefty session of losses on Wednesday which saw both benchmarks settle lower by almost USD 2.50/bbl apiece.
Nat Gas futures experienced modest divergence with TTF fairly contained while Henry Hub is firmer as attention turns to potential cold weather state-side ahead.
Exxon posted USD 2.5bln after-tax earnings in Kazakhstan and produced 246k bpd there for 2022, while it alerted against potential risks of disruptions of Kazakhstan oil through the CPC pipeline.
Spot gold has drifted towards the bottom of its intraday range as the Dollar picked up this morning, with the intraday low just under yesterday’s USD 1,823.56/oz trough
BoE’s Mann says failing to do enough now risks the worst of both worlds – the higher inflation and lower activity – as monetary policy will have to stay tighter for longer. Believe that more tightening is needed, and caution that a pivot is not imminent. In her view preponderance of turning points is not yet in the data. BoE should weigh inflation more highly in our reaction function. Adding, she does not think UK monetary policy is in a restrictive stance particularly.
DATA RECAP
EU HICP Final YY (Jan) 8.6% vs. Exp. 8.6% (Prev. 8.5%); X F & E Final YY (Jan) 7.1% (Prev. 7.0%); X F, E, A & T Final YY (Jan) 5.3% vs. Exp. 5.2% (Prev. 5.2%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Fed’s Williams (voter) said 2% inflation is a foundational target and price stability is an absolute imperative, while he noted an absolute commitment to getting back to 2% over the next few years.Williams stated that although goods prices have come down in the last several months, there are signs this may not go as quickly as hoped and said they don’t want inflation expectations anchor to slip. Furthermore, he noted that demand exceeds supply and the labour market is exceptionally strong, while monetary policy must bring demand and supply back into balance.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen says she does not have a specific timeframe for a resumption of dialogue with China.
Russian Defence Ministry accused Ukraine of planning to stage an ‘armed provocation’ in the near future against Transnistria, Moldova and noted that it is ready to respond to any changes in the situation, according to a Telegram and RIA news agency.
Russian President Putin said Moscow will pay increased attention to bolstering the country’s nuclear forces and will start mass deliveries of Zirkon sea-launched hypersonic missiles, according to Reuters.
US President Biden said Russian President Putin’s suspension of the New START treaty is a big mistake and is not very responsible, while Biden added that he does not read into Russian President Putin’s comments that he’s thinking of using nuclear weapons and sees no change in Russia’s nuclear posture, according to an interview with ABC News.
US mulls releasing intelligence on China’s potential arms transfer to Russia, according to WSJ.
Russian Defense Ministry plane has reportedly crashed near Belgorod, Russia, via AJA Breaking citing Tass.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is firmer on the session having successfully reclaimed the USD 24k mark after losing the figure on Wednesday, though it remains shy of recent USD 25k+ levels.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks lacked firm direction with price action mostly rangebound amid thinned conditions due to the holiday closure in Japan and following the mixed performance stateside where the major indices faded mild gains in the aftermath of the FOMC minutes.
ASX 200 was the laggard with the index weakened by underperformance in the mining industry after recent declines in commodity prices and a slump in Rio Tinto’s profits, although losses were limited as participants also digested better-than-expected capex data.
KOSPI was the biggest gainer amid recent currency weakness and after the BoK kept its rate unchanged for the first time in a year, as unanimously expected.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were indecisive with stocks initially led higher by strength in tech and after China vowed to improve measures to cut taxes and fees, although the gains were briefly pared amid ongoing global frictions and the PBoC’s liquidity drain.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
BoK maintained its base rate at 3.5%, as expected, while it noted uncertainties surrounding the policy decision are high and it deemed it warranted to keep a restrictive policy stance for a considerable time.BoK Governor Rhee said board member Cho Yoon-Je dissented and that the decision should not be taken as indicating the tightening cycle is over. Furthermore, Rhee stated that five members wanted to keep the chance open for the terminal rate to reach 3.75% and that the decision was based on the expectation that inflation will head down from March, while he added that it is time to stop and watch if the inflation trend goes along the expected path.
Chinese Commerce Ministry says the consumer market recovery momentum was strong in January, will take more measures to restore and expand consumption.
China is to shake up its financial system, according to WSJ; Citic Group Chairman Zhu Hexin is reportedly the leading candidate for PBoC governor, according to sources.
DATA RECAP
Australian Capital Expenditure (Q4) 2.2% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. -0.6%)
Australian Private Capital Expenditure 2023-2024 (AUD)(Est. 1) 129.7B; 2022-2023 (AUD)(Est. 5) 158.7B (Prev. 155.7B)
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.67 PTS OR 0.11% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 72.49 PTS OR 0.35% /The Nikkei closed //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.33% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 6.8984 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.9043// /Oil DOWN TO 74.86dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 81.20 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
China’s propagandists tell us the Chinese economy this year will “accelerate to 4.8%.” Foreign analysts are even more bullish. Goldman Sachs estimates growth of gross domestic product of 5.5%.
China’s National Health Commission announced the end of the Communist Party’s “dynamic zero-Covid” policy on December 7. It did not take long for Wall Street to crank up the optimism machine. Morgan Stanley, on the following day, issued a research note predicting that Chinese equities would outperform emerging markets and global peers.
Since then, financial analysts have been falling over themselves to say how China’s stocks will continue to soar this year.
Stocks may soar for a while, but China’s economy is far sicker than analysts assume.
At the heart of the sunny views is how fast China has put COVID-19 behind it.
On the eve of the Lunar New Year holiday in China, often called the “world’s largest human migration” and therefore a potentially superspreader event, Wu Zunyou, the chief epidemiologist of the country’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said that 80% of China’s population had already been infected.
At the end of the holiday, the Center reported that there were 6,364 deaths between January 20-26 in hospitals, almost half the number of deaths in the preceding week.
Beijing’s position is that the disease has already peaked so that further spread is unlikely.
No wonder investors are exuberant. Covid relaxation is central to the idea that China’s economy will produce solid growth. Bulls, aided by Communist Party and central government propaganda, make the argument that the end of disease-control measures— China maintained one of the world’s strictest set of rules for three years — will result in a binge of “revenge spending.”
“Chinese consumers, trapped inside their apartments during parts of the pandemic, accumulated more than $2.2 trillion in bank deposits last year, which should fuel more spending,” the Wall Street Journal reported this month. The Financial Times put the figure at $2.6 trillion.
Is the bull case correct?
There are four primary reasons to doubt it.
First, China’s disease statistics are questionable.
“China Portrayal of Smooth Covid Exit Leaves Scientists Wanting More Data,” a polite Wall Street Journalheadline put it.
Beijing is asking the world to believe that SARS-CoV-2, the pathogen causing this disease, is behaving differently in China than it has in all other parts of the world. If this claim is false, as it almost certainly is, there will be a follow-on wave of infections in the country this spring, as disease modelers have been predicting.
Second, even if China were over Covid as the regime maintains, the economy is still plagued by its over-dependence on property, which accounts for almost 30% of GDP.
Prices and sales have been plunging since late 2021, when Beijing finally restricted imprudent lending to big developers, most notably China Evergrande Group, now in default.
Housing is critical because it also accounts for about 70% of the wealth of the middle class. The Chinese people have powered the economy with spending when property prices were rising, either because they were reaping gains on sales or because of the “wealth effect,” the circumstance that people tend to spend when they feel their assets have gone up in value. Now, the opposite of the wealth effect is depressing consumption.
“The property sector downturn is hard-wired into the first half of 2023,” reported the Rhodium Group last month, in an analysis on China’s economic prospects.
That means a downturn in first-half GDP is also hard-wired.
Third, the Chinese economy is far weaker than Beijing claims.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported that GDP grew 3.0% last year, but that is highly unlikely.
More probably, as Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research tells Gatestone, the economy in fact contracted. The poor economy, like the property downturn, appears to have crimped consumer spending. The general downbeat mood of the Chinese people will convince them to save more than analysts think.
Fourth, the regime during the pandemic did almost nothing to remedy the principal structural flaw in the Chinese economy: the overreliance on government spending, which over decades has resulted in overbuilding and therefore created mountains of questionable debt.
Gregory Copley, the president of the International Strategic Studies Association, tells Gatestone that “the fundamentals of the Chinese economy have already been destroyed, so the optimism about the reversals of Communist Party policy on Covid management will be short-lived.”
“China is back,” is how the Financial Times summarized the message of Vice Premier Liu He to the just-completed World Economic Forum gathering in Davos. Maybe so, but it is back to the old faulty economic structure.
“China is too optimistic about a quick economic turnaround in 2023 following the Covid lockdowns,” Andrew Collier, an analyst at Global Source Partners, said in e-mail comments to this publication.
“Local governments are running huge financial deficits, many people are holding on to cash because they are worried about their health, and the downturn in the property market has affected people’s retirement savings.”
Collier, based in Hong Kong, thinks wealthy consumers may buy high-end imports so the overall impact on the Chinese economy “will not be large.”
Collier therefore believes there will not be an uptick until 2024.
In any event, Copley, also editor-in-chief of Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, says that “foreign analysts of mainland China’s economy have always engaged in wishful thinking, and there is now an air of desperation.”
China is not going to have a good 2023 or a good 2024. Foreigners are going to lose money in China again.
END
CHINA/USA
China sends its supertankers to USA Gulf coast to reload oil
(zerohedge)
China Sends Supertankers To US Gulf On Crude Oil Buying Spree
WEDNESDAY, FEB 22, 2023 – 06:45 PM
One of the most important bull thesis for crude in 2023 is that China, having permanently shelved its zero Covid policies, will unleash a global buying spree as the Chinese economy sharply roars back to life.
On Tuesday, we got another indication of precisely that: Unipec, the largest oil trader in China and the trading unit of state-held refiner Sinopec, and PetroChina, the largest oil and gas producer and distributor in China, have both hired ten supertankers in March to haul US crude back to Asia, according to Bloomberg, citing people with direct knowledge of the matter.
Each vessel can transport a whopping 20 million barrels of crude. The people said that the loading of the tankers is expected to occur across US Gulf Coast terminals.
“Chinese buying activity of US barrels seems to be the hottest activity right now,” Viktor Katona, a lead crude analyst at Kpler, told Bloomberg. He said Chinese firms are taking advantage of a “remarkable, profitable arbitrage” for US crude that has been suppressed because of President Biden’s massive releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (remember when China was buying SPR releases last year?).
The first indication of China embarking on a global buying spree of crude was last month. We pointed out Unipec was set to purchase at least 18 cargoes of Upper Zakum crude from Abu Dhabi in March.
Chinese oil demand is rebounding after the reopening of its economy. Traders are closely monitoring Chinese oil demand for hints at what’s the next direction for benchmark Brent futures.
Data and analytics firm Kpler pointed out as many as 14 Very Large Crude Carriers are preparing to load from the US Gulf Coast to China in March. Katona noted this doubled the volume shipped over the last several years.
Saudi oil giant Aramco expects the Chinese reopening and a pick-up in jet fuel demand to lead to a rebound in global oil demand this year, Amin Nasser, the CEO of the world’s biggest oil firm, told Bloomberg in an interview last month.
And the Chinese buying isn’t limited to the US and Abu Dhabi. OilPrice said PetroChina and Sinopec are back on the market for Russian Urals and taking advantage of the deep discounts.
Here’s something for oil bulls:
“China will drive nearly half this global demand growth even as the shape and speed of its reopening remains uncertain,” International Energy Agency said last month.
I sent this out yesterday and i do encourage you read it. The chinese position is quite stark and clear and is opposite of what America is doing.
Often in business, private life or in diplomacy quarrels and conflicts are best discussed in private and not made into public displays of differences. Because this naturally hardens views and causes embarrassment. Trudeau found this out when he was chastised by XI recently.
This is something the fools abroad the ship do not know and cannot learn. Blinken the other day basically told China that support of Russia would bring the same sanctions that have been rendered upon Russia. This is both naive and dangerous because nation see and China will lose face should it not respond. Especially given their written position expressed in the attachment. Blinken is a sad commentary of what diplomacy has become under Biden or shall we say the teleprompter writer. They forget China holds the 2nd largest amount of Treasuries, now that Japan is in first place. Has anyone considered what might happen if they cash in Treasuries faster than they are. After all if sanctions come, then such debt in form of treasuries is subject to being frozen, is it not? Or perhaps they might suggest that all new purchases of goods from China are no longer acceptable in USD and require Stable-coin like the BRICS uses to settle trade. Or they might decide that America simply is not worth the effort of time like Russia has and write it off making relations awful frosty.
Yes, Xi is going to Moscow next month and do expect a response from China in late April. The Chinese will not lose face over this and Blinken is short of the mark to understand.
US To Quadruple Troop Presence In Taiwan, Simultaneously Ratchets Pressure Over China-Russia Ties
THURSDAY, FEB 23, 2023 – 01:00 PM
Immediately on the heels of reports that the Biden administration is mulling going public with intelligence which it says shows China is poised to begin providing lethal aid to Russia (while at the same time acknowledging that no final decision has been made), the United States is set to more than quadruple its troop presence on the self-ruled island of Taiwan.
The troop surge would be done all in the name of an existent limited “training program” for Taiwanese partner forces, but sources in The Wall Street Journal cite the “rising threat from China”. Again, the timing of the two reports emerging back to back in The Wall Street Journal is interesting, suggesting a connection as the two sides clash and test red lines on a variety of intersecting security issues.
First, US intelligence officials floated a clear warning against Beijing considering sending weapons to Moscow, and in follow-up an expanded US military presence in Taiwan is revealed. Certainly China will bristle at the fresh Washington pressure coming from both angles. Tensions have also boiled over the ‘spy balloon’ shootdown saga from earlier this month.
And on Thursday NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg added his voice, saying that the Western military alliance sees signs that “China is considering and may be planning to send arms to Russia.”
The WSJ details of the question of more troops positioned in Taiwan, “The U.S. plans to deploy between 100 and 200 troops to the island in the coming months, up from roughly 30 there a year ago, according to U.S. officials.”
It continues: “The larger force will expand a training program the Pentagon has taken pains not to publicize as the U.S. works to provide Taipei with the capabilities it needs to defend itself without provoking Beijing.” But going suddenly from dozens of troops to hundreds is without doubt going to provoke Beijing’s wrath, also after last August’s unprecedented island-encircling drills in response to Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taipei.
The number of American troops, which has included special-operations forces and U.S. Marines, has fluctuated by a handful during the past few years, according to Defense Department data. The planned increase would be the largest deployment of forces in decades by the U.S. on Taiwan, as the two draw closer to counter China’s growing military power.
China has meanwhile joined Russia in charging that the US and NATO have thwarted efforts to resolve the Ukraine crisis peacefully. This week’s visit to Moscow of China’s top diplomat Wang Yi emphasized precisely that Beijing sees its role as one of a peace-broker, while declaring that China and Russia are “like-minded partners”.
Analysts cited in Financial Times say of China’s strategy in pushing a plan for future negotiated settlement:
“Yes, they want better relations with Europe, but they also don’t want this war to go in a direction where Russia is completely defeated,” said Yun Sun, a China expert at the Stimson Center think-tank in Washington.
While Beijing has not floated any firm details about its peace proposal, the foreign ministry has said it will reaffirm Xi’s earlier calls to respect sovereignty and territorial integrity, “take seriously the legitimate security concerns of all countries”, uphold the UN Charter and avoid nuclear war.
* * *
Also on this note, Rabobank writes the following in preview of expected events Friday…
Tomorrow sees the China peace plan for Ukraine. On that note, look at this quote from the Global Times: “Since Kiev is deeply influenced by Washington, which is not interested in an immediate cease-fire but prefers a prolonged conflict to keep undermining Moscow and change the status quo by force, it is really hard to see a feasible formula for peace that both sides can accept.Peace may arrive only after more casualties and damage in the battlefields make at least one side change their mind.” Is that an implied threat to help Russia or resignation? Foreign Minister Wang Yi just underlined China-Russia ties are “rock solid”, and “no matter how the international situation changes, China is willing to maintain the sound development momentum on the new model of major-country relationship with Russia”. The Russians said the two countries favour building “a more just world order, and welcome the rise of the number of states which choose the path of free, sovereign development based on their identity and traditions.”
END
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS/UK AFFAIRS//
SPAIN
Record high bankruptcies in Spain. Two reasons:
1. end of COVID funding
2. high inflation
(zerohedge)
Culling Of Spanish ‘Zombies’ Sends European Bankruptcies Soaring To 8-Year-Highs
THURSDAY, FEB 23, 2023 – 04:15 AM
Q4 2022 saw European businesses filing for bankruptcy at the fastest pace in at least eight years
The number of bankruptcy declarations increased during all four quarters of 2022.
As The FT reports, there was a particularly sharp increase in Spanish bankruptcy filings, which more than doubled in the second half of last year after changes to the country’s insolvency law made it easier for companies to restructure their debt, prompting a surge in such court filings.
“There are a lot of companies that were given a free pass during all of 2020 and 2021 when they didn’t even have to pay some of their creditors, such as social charges in France,” said Ludovic Subran, chief economist at German insurer Allianz, which is forecasting an increase of almost 20 per cent in western European bankruptcy filings this year.
“These fallen angels, or companies that can barely manage, are now facing less support, with increased financing and wage costs and it is becoming completely untenable,” he said.
Finally, as The FT reports,the biggest increase in EU insolvencies in the fourth quarter was in the transport and storage and the accommodation and food services sectors (up 72% and 39% respectively from the previous quarter).
As James Watson, chief economist at the EU employers’ federation BusinessEurope, said:
“There is clearly a factor of governments withdrawing support introduced during the pandemic and that is having an impact.”
But he added:
“There is also something else going on, as it is becoming an increasingly difficult trading environment for many companies due to high inflation, weak growth and rising interest rates.”
So, the zombies, kept on life-support (forgive the mixed metaphors) by direct fiscal government support and regulatory-imposed moratoria on any debt repudiation actions, and low/negative interest-rates, have finally been slayed.
Is Europe’s currently reality coming to American shores next as lending standards tighten and pandemic aid policies expire?
end
GERMANY/RUSSIA/USA
Biden confesses the Nordstream terror again was of USA origin:
Visiting Warsaw today, White House Resident Joe Biden once again acknowledged his regime is behind the attack on the Nord Stream pipeline Sept. 26, 2022.
“Putin thought he could use energy as a weapon. But no. We mobilized and reduced our dependence on Russian energy resources,” Biden said in Warsaw.
Since the publication of Seymour Hersh’s bombshell report on the puported US attack on the Nord Stream pipeline, the White House has been busy calling the report “totally false” and downplaying previous statements by top Biden officials saying the USA would “end” the Nord Stream pipeline.
Apparently, Slow Joe didn’t get the memo. Or he forgot again.
“Last June, (US) Navy divers, operating under the cover of a widely publicized mid-summer NATO exercise known as BALTOPS 22, planted the remotely triggered explosives that, three months later, destroyed three of the four Nord Stream pipelines, according to a source with direct knowledge of the operational planning,” Hersh wrote.
Speaking at a press conference with German chancellor Olaf Scholz Feb. 7, 2022, Biden said, if Russia invaded Ukraine, “there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2”. Pressed to explain how, Biden doubled down: “We will – I promise you – we will be able to do it.”
On January 27, 2022, State Department Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland said that ‘With regard to Nord Stream 2, we continue to have very strong and clear conversations with our German allies, and I want to be clear with you today. If Russia invades Ukraine, one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward…. we’ve had extensive consultations at every level with our German allies. I’m not going to get into the specifics here today, but we will work with Germany to ensure that the pipeline does not move forward.’
On January 26, 2022 US State Department spokesperson Ned Price told NPR: “I want to be very clear: if Russia invades Ukraine one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward. I’m not going to get into the specifics. We will work with Germany to ensure it does not move forward.”
At a press conference on Sept. 30, Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the attack on Nord Stream “a tremendous opportunity to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy and thus to take away from Vladimir Putin the weaponisation of energy as a means of advancing his imperial designs.”
On Sept. 27, one day after the explosions, Polish MEP Radek Sikorski posted “Thank you, USA” with a photo of the Nord Stream bubble, before later deleting the tweet. Sikorski is husband to The Atlantic editor Anne Applebaum, who is also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Israel’s new government under Benjamin Netanyahu has stepped up US-backed talks with Saudi Arabia on forging stronger military and intelligence ties, Bloombergreported late last week.
The talks are part of an effort to forge a NATO-style anti-Iran alliance in the region between Israel and Washington’s Gulf Arab allies. While Saudi Arabia has not normalized with Israel, the two countries have quietly increased cooperation, including by participating in their first public joint military exercises in 2022.
The Bloomberg report said that Israeli and Saudi officials held talks ahead of a meeting of the US-Gulf Cooperation Council Working Group that took place on February 16. More talks were expected to happen at the Munich Security Conference, which was held over the weekend.
Israel has increased cooperation with the US’s Gulf allies since normalizing with the UAE and Bahrain in 2020 under the Abraham Accords.
Since then, the US has brought Israel under the umbrella of US Central Command (CENTCOM), the US command responsible for the Middle East.
Including Israel in CENTCOM operations facilitates more Israeli-Arab cooperation. Israel previously fell under US European Command since it didn’t have relations with most US allies in the region. The US and Israel want a future anti-Iran alliance in the Middle East to focus on integrated air defense systems.
Saudi officials have insisted that a normalization deal with Israel would hinge on the creation of a Palestinian state, which is highly unlikely as the Netanyahu government is vowing to expand settlements in the West Bank.
But it’s possible Riyadh could eventually be convinced by the US to open up with Israel if Washington offers more military assistance and arms sales.
END
RUSSIA//UKRAINE/USA
You have to see this!
Russian Terminator, BTR-D and BMD-2 Attack on Ukrainian Positions in Dibrova – Watch Video – WarNews247
Robert Hryniak
3:50 PM (1 hour ago)
to
This is savage weapon battle tested in Syria. One does not confront this and walk away unscathed
Remember this place which is just east of Moldova which borders Ukraine. Because soon enough it will be in the news. This is a Russian speaking region which departed and separated from Moldova in 1990 before the break up of the Soviet Union.
Ever since 1992 there have been Russian Peacekeepers there and there is a store of old Soviet artillery ammo which the Ukrainians covet and want to continue to use in the Donbas. And in recent times there has been much talk of Ukrainians going in by force to seize the hardware there. Whether the ammo still works, who knows, but they want it. And Ukrainians are massing on the border in recent days.
Not to be left out recently Russia has started to resupply this area with both manpower and more modern light weapons. As it is, a rotation of Peacekeepers is ongoing as it has been for many years. And no doubt there has been weighted planning for missile support as needed.
In the past i have written about the billions in dollars being spent on port facilities the Brits were building in the Sea of Azov which was completely destroyed day 1 of the SMO. However, did you know that prior to the start of the SMO that Ukraine had also entered into lease agreement with NATO on the Port of Odessa to station a naval base there??
Perhaps now the reasoning for a collective of 90,000 troops amassed in Romania of which 45,000 are Americans gathers more light and thinking. The purpose of this group is to seize the city of Odessa for NATO. It is that simple. However, to get to Odessa a trip through Moldova and Transnistria is required. As part of the what officially is now a war, Russia would be naive to allow this to occur and by maps already shown it is clear why Russia intends to cut the Ukraine off from SEA access as it is about Russian protection from NATO in it’s backyard. Because clearly if such a naval base was built, all manner of naval vessels would operate from there including American subs. And this cannot be allowed as sooner or later a war at sea would occur by stealth at the belly of Russia, without an adequate response time for incoming missiles. As it is clear that a undeclared state of War does exist with the West and there is no way that Russia will back down because it is clear from their perspective that nothing the West says or does can be trusted. Certainly, Merkel’s and Macron’s admissions about the Minsk Accords proved that they both lied along with the Ukrainians and thus fooled Belarus and Russia into buying time for training and arming of Ukrainians to be used as a proxy to destroy Russia. And with ample daily coverage of weapon supplies, it is clear all of the West is in on the arcade. So it is clear Russia would have to be a fool not to see or understand what is at stake. No doubt in the West broken promises had to have been made for nations to be so silly as to play in the arcade losing their economies. The Ukrainians have no chance as it’s clear that the West is failing in weapons supply and is using willing patsies to die to keep up the parade. As it is all of NATO is basically running out of weapons and in direct conflict would run out of weapons and shells within a week. And all the hype and claims about Russia running out of weapons was all a lie. They have yet to really apply pressure with modern weapons that only now are coming to surface on the battlefield. Soon we will see much more come into the open.
The reality will be that Russia will close the Black Sea to what is left of Ukraine and in the meantime be sure that various oligarchs and profiteers will pillage the last valuable coin from Ukraine as it is bled to the last Ukrainian dying and whatever Polish or other mercenaries can be found to experience Modern Warfare and extend the weapons testing being done by all sides. And yes, China has recognized the reality of the West and it too understands the threat of a nuclear exchange and not a standoff occurring, in the not too distant future.
end
6.GLOBAL ISSUES/COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
Vaccine//Covid issues: Injuries
Senator Accuses FAA Of Ignoring Potential Vaccine Dangers To Pilots
Senator Johnson continues his quest on the COVID vaccines. Today he is angry at the FAA for ignoring the potential dangers of the vaccine to its pilots
U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) is expressing dismay over how the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) responded to his questions about the agency’s handling of pilot health issues.
“How can the FAA maintain safe skies when it turns a blind eye toward pilots experiencing COVID-19 vaccine injuries?” Johnson said in an email sent exclusively to The Epoch Times on Feb. 21.
“Is it willful ignorance that the FAA is aware of only four active pilots experiencing adverse events connected to the COVID-19 vaccine? The American people are not getting the full transparency and honesty from federal agencies that they deserve.”
Johnson made those remarks in response to how Susan Northrup, the FAA’s federal air surgeon, answered eight questions surrounding pilot health.
Not the FAA’s Role
In his Jan. 27 letter to the FAA, Johnson provided specific information about five named pilots with suspected COVID-19 vaccine ill effects; one of the pilots died 17 days after being vaccinated.
Numerous other accounts of pilots with suspected vaccine injuries are included in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, as The Epoch Times reported previously.
Johnson wanted to know what steps the FAA has taken or planned to take to investigate whether the five named pilots and others had suffered adverse effects after COVID-19 shots.
Northrup wrote that her agency isn’t in charge of that.
“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is the responsible agency for tracking and follow up of suspected vaccine adverse events,” she wrote.
Northrup noted that pilots experiencing any medical issues are required to “ground themselves,” seek medical help and report any “significant medical events.”
“FAA is responsible for determining whether that event will have an adverse safety effect,” Northrup wrote.
She also said the agency was “aware of only four potentially vaccine-related adverse events in active pilots.”
Among those four, “only one has provided medical documentation through the normal process,” Northrup wrote. She gave no further information on what that process involves.
Justification For Shots
Johnson noted that, on Dec. 12, 2020, the day after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized COVID-19 vaccines for “emergency use” among the general public, the FAA declared pilots were permitted to take the shots, too.
That action surprised many in aviation because pilots are forbidden from taking other emergency-use-authorized drugs.
To justify the drugs’ use in pilots, Northrup listed nine websites about the general safety of the various brands of vaccines. Aviation experts have questioned whether any studies were done on pilots specifically. There were no such studies immediately apparent among the list Northrup provided.
Asked whether the FAA evaluated whether any changes should be made to guidance on COVID-19 vaccines for pilots, Northrup responded that the agency has “continued to monitor the data and determined no change in policy was indicated.”
As member states of the World Health Organization (WHO) prepare to gather in Switzerland next week to negotiate final terms of an accord that will give the WHO centralized authority over U.S. policy in the case of a pandemic, Republican senators are pushing back with an effort to reinforce congressional power to authorize treaties.
The draft accord, which would be “legally binding” on all 194 member nations, gives the WHO the authority to declare pandemics and submits member countries to “the central role of the WHO as the directing and coordinating authority on international health work,” in areas like lockdowns, treatments, medical supply chains, surveillance, and “disinformation and false news,” once a pandemic is declared.
Seventeen U.S. senators, led by Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), introduced the “No WHO Pandemic Preparedness Treaty Without Senate Approval Act” on Feb 15, which states that the pandemic accord must be deemed a treaty, thus requiring the consent of a supermajority of the Senate, which is two-thirds, or 67 senators. The legislation comes as the WHO gears up to present what it calls the “zero draft” of the accord, negotiated with the help of U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, to all member nations on Feb. 27 to agree final terms.
Other sponsors of the bill included Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), John Hoeven (R-N.D.), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Mike Braun (R-Ind.), Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), and Katie Britt (R-Ala.).
“The WHO, along with our federal health agencies, failed miserably in their response to COVID-19,” Sen. Johnson stated. “This failure should not be rewarded with a new international treaty that would increase the WHO’s power at the expense of American sovereignty.”
But some doubt this bill, even if approved, will stop the WHO accord from going into effect once President Joe Biden signs it.
“With all due respect to the sponsoring senators, that will not do the trick,” Francis Boyle, professor of international law at Illinois University, told The Epoch Times. The reason, he said, is that the WHO accord is drafted specifically to circumvent the Senate-approval process, and Congress instead should immediately withhold its yearly contributions to the WHO and take the United States out of the organization.
Currently, the United States is the largest contributor to the WHO’s $6.72 billion budget, of which $1.25 billion is for “health emergencies.” The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is the second largest donor to the WHO, contributing 9 percent of its budget in 2021; China is the third.
Will Biden Need Senate Approval for WHO Accord?
It remains unclear if the Biden administration will need Senate approval for the WHO accord to go into effect. The accord itself states that it will become effective and legally binding on member states “provisionally,” as soon as it is signed and before any national legislatures approve it.
“The Biden administration can indicate that it is provisionally bringing this treaty into force upon the mere signature of the treaty,” Boyle said. “Hence, it will come into force here in the United States provisionally until the Senate decides whether or not it is going to give its advice and consent to the treaty. I personally know of no other U.S. treaty that provides for its provisional application pending the U.S. Senate giving its advice and consent to the treaty.”
Doctors Bristle At New FDA Authority To Ban Off-Label Uses For Drugs
THURSDAY, FEB 23, 2023 – 03:00 PM
After a string of court losses concerning the ability for doctors to prescribe drugs for off-label uses for which they were not approved, Congress has quietly given the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) more power to prohibit off-label use.
Buried in page 3,542 of the 4,155-page omnibus appropriations bill is the authority to ban off-label uses, under a section which applies to “banned devices” that some doctors fear could be broadly interpreted to cover drug treatments, Just the News reports.
The FDA requested this “very unprecedented” update after a string of court losses, Endpoints News senior editor Zachary Brennan told WBUR earlier this month, while cautioning that it’s not clear whether the agency could broadly interpret “devices” to cover drug treatments.
Law firm Morrison Foerster specifically credited the revision to a 2021 ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit that prohibited the FDA from banning “individual intended usages of an otherwise legally marketed device,” in that case “electrical stimulation devices used to treat aggressive or self-injurious behavior.” -Just the News
“FDA lobbyists got congress [sic] to grant the agency (not practicing doctors) the power to ban some uses of medications,” said Johns Hopkins medical professor and National Academy of Medicine member Marty Makary in a Tuesday tweet.
“That’s truly arrogant to think that the federal government is the one and only one who knows better than the physicians at the state boards of medicine about what good medicine is or what it isn’t,” said medical device and drug regulatory attorney Brad Thompson in a comment to WBUR.
“It may be that the clause is specifically directed to forbidding use of e.g. ivermectin in COVID,” in which case the “data are mixed,” according to retired microbiologist David Livermore in an emailed statement to Just the News.
Livermore called it a “disgrace and a dereliction of duty” that the NIH has failed to “properly study ivermectin either as a treatment or a prophylactic for COVID,” and has given the FDA cover to potentially ban its use.
The new FDA authority could complicate a lawsuit by doctors that claims the agency effectively banned them from prescribing ivermectin to treat COVID by repeatedly telling the public the award-winning antiviral was dangerous for humans and providing false grounds for medical license investigations.
“Since the new provision lets the FDA skirt the ban on interfering with the practice of medicine by banning devices for particular uses, the agency will likely claim this as a precedent allowing it to ban off-label uses of drugs as well,” wrote Joel Zinberg, associate clinical professor of surgery at the Icahn School of Medicine and former Columbia law , who accused the FDA of “unwarranted intrusion into the physician-patient relationship.”
This study started in 2017 long before the COVID outbreak. Seems the huge increase use of plastics is behind this. After COVID in 2020, no bound the count fell again
(Charbonneau/EpochTimes)
Global Sperm Counts Declining At Accelerating Rate: New Meta-Analysis
A recently published meta-analysis shows that global sperm counts are declining worldwide—at an accelerating rate.
The article, published in the journal Human Reproduction Update in November 2022 by an international team of researchers, reviewed 2,936 scholarly abstracts and 868 full articles and analyzed data from 38 sperm count studies done on six continents, updating their landmark study of 2017.
The 2017 study found sperm counts had fallen in North America, Europe, and Australia by over 50 percent in a fifty-year span. The current study updated this data as well as added data from South/Central America, Asia, and Africa.
“The aim of this study was to examine trends in sperm count among men from all continents. The broader implications of a global decline in sperm count, the knowledge gaps left unfilled by our prior analysis, and the controversies surrounding this issue warranted an up-to-date meta-analysis,” said the authors.
The analysis found that while sperm counts had declined at the average rate per year of 1.16 percent between 1972 and 2000, the rate of decline since 2000 has increased to an average of 2.64 percent per year.
Reviewing the findings in an After Skool YouTube episode, study author Shanna Swan said:
“Now we can conclude that among men who didn’t know what their fertility [rate] was, who are, by the way, most representative of the general population, that there was a significant decline [in sperm counts and sperm concentration] in Asia, Africa, and South America—so now we can say that our finding of a significant decline in sperm concentration and count is worldwide—that was a big change from the 2017 paper.
“The other change from the 2017 paper was the rate at which sperm counts are declining: When we look at recent years—particularly since the turn of the century—the rate is 2.64 per year. That’s more than double 1.16, the prior finding.”
The Role of Plastics in Reproductive Disruption
The obvious question is—why the accelerated rate of decline?
Swan dismissed genetic explanations, pointing out that genetic changes take “many generations to appear” whereas these changes are taking place in two generations or less.
“That leaves us with environment,” Swan said.
Swan and other experts believe the problem is a class of chemicals called endocrine disruptors, which interfere with the body’s hormones.
Fed Ex ready to strike which will be deadly to the world economy
(Fed Ex)
FedEx Pilot Union “Prepared To Take Fight To Company” As Labor Talks Stall, Strike Looms
THURSDAY, FEB 23, 2023 – 06:55 AM
Leaders representing the FedEx Air Line Pilots Association unanimously passed a resolution authorizing a strike authorization vote last Friday, according to a statement Wednesday from the union. A date for the vote wasn’t mentioned. The union said no future talks are planned as labor agreement negotiations have stalled.
A strike would only happen if negotiations break down and the federal government mediators authorize a walkout after the parties exhaust the required procedures of the Railway Labor Act. The National Mediation Board (NMB) would then release both sides from mediation, and after a 30-day cooling-off period, both parties could exercise self-help – including a strike by the union or a lockout by the company.
“The decision to move closer to a strike authorization vote is the result of nearly six months of federally mediated negotiations that has led to our disappointment with FedEx management’s actions at the bargaining table,” said Captain Chris Norman, FedEx Express Master Executive Council chair.
Pilots have been negotiating new labor contracts with FedEx execs since May 2021, including expedited federal mediation with NMB. According to a statement from FedEx pilots, “FedEx has failed to acknowledge pilot contributions and FedEx pilots are prepared to take this fight to the Company.”
“FedEx pilots are committed to reaching a deal with management, but we will not waiver in our commitment to deliver a contract that rewards pilots for their sacrifices to build FedEx into the global leader it is today.
“Although a strike authorization vote has not been called at this time, our customers and shareholders should be aware that the pilots may be headed in that direction shortly,” Norman said.
FedEx pilots warned: “This announcement should also alert FedEx customers that should FedEx pilots be unable to successfully conclude negotiations, they should be planning alternative means in the event pilots must strike.”
Imagine the logistical nightmare a FedEx strike would cause. Let’s hope this doesn’t happen.
‘I receive an email cautiously asking: “Is he on this list?” (our list of 132 Canadian doctor sudden deaths).
A top Vancouver cardiologist was seeing patients recently. A few days later, one of his patients was informed their cardiologist had just died suddenly.
‘Past SARS-CoV-2 infection protection against re-infection: a systematic review & meta-analysis’; Protection from past infection against re-infection from pre-OMI variants very high and remained high!
for a cross dressing drag queen? stealing all our tax payer money, laundering it with Sam FTX? trying to hide the role of Ukraine in COVID origin? biolabs? Ukraine is not our concern, never will be!
Where were the Republicans in congress, the men, when testicles were being allocated? For these men have zero stones. Marjorie Taylor Green needs to lend them some of her balls for she gots all for all the Republican men. And the Senators, sitting back silent when Biden is taking us to WW III. Are these people not ashamed, walking us into war, when they know not their children will be shedding blood.
Who the hell was Biden talking for? Can he even utter a word without a prompter? This is madness! These neocon neolib bitches want WW III. The want confrontation. These deranged warmongers and globalists are profiteering and enriching themselves off of endless wars. Trump would have never allowed this. He would have kept us out of war. They have now positioned us ever so close to WW III. Biden spoke in a deranged manner today, as if the US is actually fighting Russia and it is clear Biden et al. have completely mishandled the Ukraine-Russia situation. I mean I can see we are in the war in a round about way. But Putin can crush Ukraine in a minute if he wanted to. They are pushing Putin. I do not blame Putin here. I used to. I now see it clearly. Not one bit. It is IMO the west doing this.
I have an interest in America, so I say no, Biden does not speak for me. These people are stark raving lunatics pushing Putin this way. Now he has withdrawn from START. How much more of a clusterfu*k can you make this Biden? Now China may get into bed with Russia. Do you think the US can handle a combined China and Russia? We have pusillanimous little weak freaks in the State department, frat boys and girls interfering with foreign policy mocking up the world.
Do you think this would be happening if Trump was in power? No. Trump would have ensured no war, none of this madness. This is exactly why we need him back there for 4 more to clean up this shit and jail all these madmen.
No more, we can give no more of our money to this bullshit. This cross dressing freak. Biden did not know which continent he was standing in yet talking smack about US resolve? US is not in this bullshit, you are in your head. Are you people in Washington insane now risking the futures of our children? You are pushing this too far.
Trump delivered peace and will again! He will regain the respect for the US on the global stage. I believe the Trump administration could end the Russia-Ukraine disaster in one hour. With the right leadership in POTUS Trump.
We were front pack & we took the most beatings but Scott deserves credit that you still will not give him; I will, he deserves it, he was terribly treated by media & DC filth but he was 100% on target
I praise everyone, all of the soldiers and warriors (you know who you are) who came forth and huge love and respect to all, but Atlas and in some sense Berenson with Ivor…with me from inside the HHS opposite the capitol building banging away at Fauci and his inept team and Birx’s and the corrupted CDC and NIH and FDA…on the inside, Scott and I, he from the Eisenhour building on White House compound, I from HHS building…and we were hated by DC filth media and the deepstate and oh how I loved it…I made their daily lives hell at HHS with accuracy, data, science, evidence that they could only dream of understanding and Scott led the way…he gave them the runs daily!! Fauci and Birx and their teams hated me, and I loved it, I felt same.
They at CDC, NIH, FDA, HHS, NIAID, all the health officials, the scientists, the doctors were all so poorly schooled and uneducated on pandemic responding, on immunology, on virology on all things COVID, it was breath taking to me how incompetent and inept and stupidly moronic they were and still are…they did everything to hurt America, hurt the pandemic response, hurt Trump, forgetting about lives to save. They should be in jail. IMO. Certain media folk too.
hat-tip to Scott, if they won’t say it, I will, you are way smarter than most, still are. To me, a great American hero. They envy you my brother. They are opportunistic freaks in my view
Natural immunity is as good or better than the vaccine.” Yes, Maher is ahead of the curve, as was my seminal paper on natural immunity in Brownstone, near 170 pieces of evidence
It is incredible that we had to tell doctors, scientists, real practicing doctors, idiots they are, inept dolts that a vaccine can never ever supersede natural exposure immunity, a vaccine is to mirror as best it can the acquired adaptive immunity. How stupid were our doctors and the media. A vaccine is in some sense a form of natural immunity that confers protection long term. It took the Canadian and US trucker to tell them this and teach these morons this. And to stand up to tyranny.
We are living in a crazy world where what our eyes see & ears hear & hearts and minds believe, we cannot even say or think else we would be attacked and smeared but we know “it’s the vaccine, stupid”
‘A flying instructor died inflight after suffering a cardiac arrest, but his co-pilot thought he was fooling around and only realized after landing on the runway with the man slumped on his shoulder.
According to a newly published safety report on the incident, the pilot thought the instructor was pretending to be asleep as the pair flew a circuit above near Blackpool Airport in Lancashire, England, on June 29, 2022.
The qualified pilot had asked the instructor to accompany him aboard the four-person Piper PA-28 for safety reasons during windy conditions, according to the UK’s Air Accidents Investigation Branch report.
Prior to takeoff, the pair chatted normally while the pilot taxied the craft out to the runway, the pilot told the AAIB. He said that the instructor’s last words were, “Looks good, there is nothing behind you.”
Shortly after takeoff, the instructor’s head rolled back. As the two pilots knew each other well, the co-pilot thought his companion was “just pretending to take a nap” while he completed the circuit, the report said. When the plane turned around, the instructor slumped over so that his head rested on the co-pilot’s shoulder, but again the pilot still thought a joke was being played on him.
After landing safely with the instructor still resting on his shoulder and not responding, the pilot realized something was wrong and alerted airport emergency services who were unable to revive the instructor.’
VACCINE IMPACT
WW III Update: China and Russia Join Forces to Fight Back Against the U.S.
Earlier this month (February, 2023) I reported how we are already in the midst of World War 3, albeit in the early stages. Based on media reports this week, it appears that the next stage of this war is about to be launched, as Russia has publicly warned the U.S. about the threat of nuclear confrontation, and China has announced that it is joining forces with Russia. Financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong believes that this WW III is needed to cover up sovereign debts that the U.S. can no longer pay. Edward Dowd, the former billion dollar hedge fund manager at Blackrock, predicted this week that the U.S. stock market might fall apart in the next “week or two.”
Yesterday’s Fed minutes had a few key takeaways. Obviously, the majority of the FOMC voted for a 25bps hike – but some wanted to go 50bps; and that was at a time when US data was looking weaker than it is now. Second, the FOMC care that financial conditions have been easing, and they don’t want them to; which means higher yields, please, and lower stocks, thanks. We got the latter but not the former yesterday. Third, the FOMC don’t see CPI back to 2% until 2025. “Transitory” sure lasts a long time – and perhaps for even more years if you look round you.
Tomorrow sees the China peace plan for Ukraine. On that note, look at this quote from the Global Times: “Since Kiev is deeply influenced by Washington, which is not interested in an immediate cease-fire but prefers a prolonged conflict to keep undermining Moscow and change the status quo by force, it is really hard to see a feasible formula for peace that both sides can accept.Peace may arrive only after more casualties and damage in the battlefields make at least one side change their mind.” Is that an implied threat to help Russia or resignation? Foreign Minister Wang Yi just underlined China-Russia ties are “rock solid”, and “no matter how the international situation changes, China is willing to maintain the sound development momentum on the new model of major-country relationship with Russia”. The Russians said the two countries favour building “a more just world order, and welcome the rise of the number of states which choose the path of free, sovereign development based on their identity and traditions.”
On which, Iraq will now use CNY to settle trade with China – except Anas Alhaji claims this does not include oil. Even if it did, ‘netting out’ was covered in 2022’s ‘Why Bretton Woods 3 won’t work’ and 2023’s ‘War and pieces of gold can’t derail the dollar’, which underline it would not be a game-changer. Nonetheless, one can see how Beijing-Moscow-Tehran would like the game to change; and that will require a US response, including higher Fed funds.
Elsewhere, alongside leaked plans for a Russia-Belarus merger, Dr. Pippa Malmgren warns Abkhazia, Artsakh, South Ossetia, Serbia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria, Moldova, Norway, Denmark, Poland, and Romania are flashpoints for Russian actions; and these may include sabotaging Norway’s oil and gas supplies to the EU. (Unless the CIA and Norway are going to do it to themselves, which Sy Hersh may soon allege.)
The Israeli press quotes Prime Minister Netanyahu saying any attack on Iran gets harder the longer one waits, and reports he has held five cloistered meetings with his defence staff on that topic, and warned the US and France that he will act alone if necessary.
Yes, these are all hard-to-price binary, fat-tail risks – but there are ever more of them; we had one such shock a year ago, showing they do happen; and the fact we are where we are now was predictable – just not by markets. Yet some still aren’t taking this into their inflation projections. And I include the FOMC in that: 2025 is likely to be optimistic against the above background.
Even if one only wants to only look at the economy, we live in a bifurcating world of K-shaped data where aggregates we are used to mentally mapping don’t work the way they once did.
Yes, goods deflation is evident in some places as demand cools post-Covid, helping unreformed supply chains look more efficient than they actually are – until eggs, vegetables, or baby formula disappear from shelves, exposing structural vulnerabilities again. And let’s not forget to mention the surge in US used car prices.
Yet services inflation is soaring as that sector overheats as much as goods did during Covid. This is not supply-driven, but a global phenomenon of ‘revenge’ services spending – although the lack of supply of staff is making things worse.
If you want a low-end services worker in the US, or anywhere, good luck trying to find one without a huge pay bump; but if you want a high-end US tech worker servicing DEI, you can take your pick as they get bumped. Which one do we have more of in the economy, and which matter for overall inflation and demand? If you can’t work that out then, like DEI workers, wait for the tap on the shoulder as you sip your latte.
What if the K-shaped oligopolistic nature of corporate power means price hikes can be passed on because there is literally nowhere else to buy? As Ben Picton notes this morning following a 2.2% rise in Australia’s Q4 private capex, stronger than the expected 1.1%, businesses are feeling happy despite rising rates and rising CPI, whereas consumers are the gloomiest they have been since the 1991 “recession we had to have”.
Perhaps because the question is also ‘what if nowhere else to go?’ In Australia, higher mortgage rates are being passed on directly into higher rents by leveraged property investors: after all, why should that tax-privileged class face any pain? So, with housing supply stalling, and net immigration about to surge again, rates and inflation are rising in tandem. Unless and until demand collapses for everything but housing – which is about a K-shaped as it gets.
Of course, that’s also a neo-feudal model of the economy, not capitalism. Then again, the geopolitical backdrop is one of war and imperialism, so the shoe fits.
The simple point is this: we arguably have years of hawkish inflation ‘surprises’ in the likes of the Fed minutes because of structural factors still being deliberately overlooked 12 months after the Ukraine war started. And things could get worse in hours, days, or weeks.
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
New technology..
Could Gravity Batteries Win The Energy Storage War?
For the global energy transition to succeed, the energy storage industry will have to develop cheap, efficient, and reliable ways to store renewable energy.
Lithium-ion batteries currently dominate the market, but a potential shortage of lithium and issues with durability mean less-efficient systems could ultimately be better.
Gravity batteries, as one of the cheapest and most simple solutions, solve many of the problems that today’s batteries face, although they must first be proved at scale.
As renewable energy operations continue to expand worldwide, governments and energy companies are racing to develop battery storage capacity to ensure that people have access to clean energy at all hours of the day and night. The inconsistency of many renewable energy sources has made the need for battery storage greater than ever, which has spurred a huge amount of investment into new battery technologies around the globe. Now, gravity batteries may help us harness the power of wind and solar farms even when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun’s not shining.
Gravity batteries work by using power from renewable energy projects to lift a heavy weight into the air or to the top of a deep shaft. As energy is required, winches are used to lower the weight, producing electricity from the movement of the cables. This means that energy from renewable projects, which cannot produce consistent power – such as wind and solar farms, can be stored in an alternative way from traditional battery power for use during peak demand times.
These mechanical batteries build upon the concept of pumped hydroelectric power storage, which uses dams to pump water up and down a hill to produce electricity as needed. Several of these projects are already underway, with the U.K. seeing the potential for 700 hydroelectric power sites, which could provide as much as 7 GW of energy storage. It is not surprising, therefore, that engineers have been inspired to adapt this idea to battery storage.
But are gravity batteries different or better than lithium-ion batteries? The current market leader, lithium-ion batteries are made up of an anode, cathode, separator, electrolyte, and two current collectors (positive and negative). The anode and cathode store the lithium. The electrolyte carries positively charged lithium ions from the anode to the cathode and vice versa through the separator. The movement of the lithium ions creates free electrons in the anode which creates a charge at the positive current collector. The electrical current then flows from the current collector through a device being powered, such as a laptop, to the negative current collector. The separator blocks the flow of electrons inside the battery. While the battery is discharging and providing an electric current, the anode releases lithium ions to the cathode, generating a flow of electrons from one side to the other. When plugging in the device, the opposite happens: Lithium ions are released by the cathode and received by the anode.
To continue manufacturing enough lithium-ion batteries to power our electrical devices and fuel the green transition, the world will need to vastly expand its lithium mining operations to provide enough of the metal to produce these batteries. In contrast, gravity batteries are mechanical instruments, which can be used repeatedly with simple reparations, with a lifespan of around 50 years. Asmae Berrada, an energy storage specialist at the International University of Rabat in Morocco, explains, comparatively, “Lithium-ion cells degrade, which means their storage capacity drops irreparably over time.”
In addition to being longer lasting, Berrada’s research suggests that the lifetime cost of lithium batteries may be twice that of mechanical alternatives. Gravity batteries may also reduce our reliance on the minerals and metals required to produce chemical batteries, alleviating the burden on the environment.
Some projects are already underway trialing gravity batteries. In the U.K., Gravitricity has been testing a prototype gravity battery in the port of Leith, Edinburgh. The company used a 15-meter-high steel tower to raise two 25-tonne weights on steel cables, using solar power. When the power is needed, the weights are lowered, allowing the motors to be used as generators to produce electricity. The firm’s senior test and simulation engineer, Jill Macpherson, said that the test was a success, stating “The demonstrator was rated at 250kW – enough to sustain about 750 homes, albeit for a very short time. But it confirmed that we can deliver full power in less than a second, which is valuable to operators that need to balance the grid second by second. It can also deliver large amounts more slowly, so it’s very flexible”.
However, despite recent developments in the sector, companies face a myriad of challenges in the expansion of this technology to be used on a larger scale. Several companies have made bold claims about the potential of their gravity battery operations, with Gravtricity stating it can power around 63,000 homes through an hour of operation of its 20 MW facility, and GravitySoilBatteries believing it can provide up to 30,000 kWh of storage at a system efficiency of 85 percent. Yet these advances have yet to be seen and may be just a pipedream.
As engineers and scientists continue to think outside the box to find the next big green energy solution, more ideas like gravity batteries are being explored. While not every idea may pan out, this is likely to be the way that we will find the new best renewable energy or battery storage option. For now, gravity batteries are in their nascent stage, and only time will tell whether the startups developing the technology will succeed in the scaling of operations.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
BRAZIL/CHINA/GLOBE
Mad Cow Disease Detected In Brazil, Forces Beef Trade With China To Halt
THURSDAY, FEB 23, 2023 – 10:25 AM
Brazil, the world’s biggest beef exporter, suspended beef shipments to China as a case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (mad cow disease) was detected, according to Bloomberg, citing the country’s agriculture and livestock ministry.
Brazil’s Minister for Agriculture, Carlos Favaro, said the animal illness known as mad cow disease was found on a small farm in the northern state of Para.
“All measures are being taken immediately at each stage of the investigation and the matter is being handled with total transparency to guarantee Brazilian and global consumers the recognized quality of our meat,” Favaro said.
Favaro said the World Organization for Animal Health had been notified. Samples of the infected animal were sent to the organization’s reference laboratory in Canada to determine if the case was “atypical.”
Atypical occurs in older cattle. It’s deemed low-risk and naturally occurring compared with other forms of the disease.
“The symptomatology indicates that it is the atypical form of the disease, which appears spontaneously in nature, causing no risk of dissemination to the herd and to humans,” Para’s agricultural defense agency said in a statement.
As a precaution, Brazilian authorities halted beef shipments to China. Favaro said the move would be short-term and that “dialogue with the authorities is being intensified to demonstrate all the information and the prompt re-establishment of the Brazilian meat trade.”
In 2021, a similar trade suspension occurred when two cases of mad cow disease were found in Brazil. Hyberville Neto, director at HN Agro consultancy, expected the export ban to be shorter than the one a few years ago.
If the ban is in place long enough, Chinese importers might start sourcing beef products elsewhere, such as in Australia, Japan, and Korea.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0613 UP .0008
USA/ YEN 135.02 UP 0.080/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2044 DOWN 0.0005
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 3.67 PTS OR 0.11%
Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 72.49 PTS OR 0.35%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.33% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY GREEN (LONDON FTSE DOWN)
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED DOWN 72.49 PTS OR 0.35%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.67 PTS OR 0.11%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .33%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1825.45
silver:$21.54
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 104.46 DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN ..(6.9064)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.9170
TURKISH LIRA: 18.87 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.500…VERY DANGEREOUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.890% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.878 DOWN 5 in basis points
USA 2 yr bond yield: 4.685 DOWN 1 basis points
Your closing USA dollar index, 104.57 UP47 BASIS PTS ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates THURSDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 19.34 PTS OR 0.24%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 77.53 POINTS OR 0.50 %
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 22.53PTS OR 0.32%
Spain IBEX UP 56.30POINTS OR 0.61%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 202.11 PTS OR 9.75%
WTI Oil price 75.33 12: EST
Brent Oil: 81.62 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// UP TO: 75.00/ ROUBLE UP 0 AND 0/100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4665
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.6020 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0602 DOWN 0.0004 OR 4 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2023 DOWN .0024 or 24 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.610% UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 134.63 DOWN .302////YEN UP 30 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3537 DOWN .0009 (CDN dollar, UP 9 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 75.55
Brent OIL: 82.30
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 5 BASIS pts to 3.8777%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 5 BASIS PTS to 3.8778%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 1/2 PTS AT 2.6953%
USA dollar index: 104.48 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 18.88
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 75.00 UP 0 0 AND 0/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 108.82 PTS OR 0.73%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 113.87 PTS OR 0.94%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 21.14 DOWN 1.15 PTS (5.16)%
GLD: $169.56 DOWN 0.10 OR 0.059%
SLV/ $19.63 DOWN 0,56 OR 0.61%
end)
USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
0DTE Call-Buyers Rescue Stocks From CTA-Slam, Bonds Bid
A hawkishly-hot Core PCE print dominated the morning headlines today, but GDP was also marked down, Claims confirmed a tight labor market (hawkish), and NVDA proved that AI is all that matters right now (+14% to its highest since April 2022 – up 120% from Oct lows)…
Source: Bloomberg
All eyes are now on tomorrow’s January PCE report, along with new home sales and an update to the UMICH’s Consumer Sentiment survey.
NVDA’s strength lifted all boats early on… then the GDP data hit – a strong PCE print and the cash open saw a wave of selling sweep all the majors lower with the S&P breaking back below 4,000 and the key 50-day moving average… which triggered a wave of buying…
The bulls need to defend these key levels:
Short term: 4030
Med term: 4004
Long term: 4095
As there is still CTA exposure to be sold…
That epic liftathon was led by a dramatically aggressive effort by 0DTE call-buyers to regain control as stocks started to tumble (with 0DTE call buying all the way down)…
…and that triggered just the momentum they wanted to create a classic short-squeeze as ‘most shorted’ stocks soared…
Source: Bloomberg
…with all the majors melting up into the green, led by Nasdaq (The Dow was the ugliest horse in today’s glue factory but still managed a gain, holding green YTD)…
That was a serious swing in Nasdaq (well all the majors really).
VIX ended notably lower, back to a 20 handle…
Stocks remain alone in their exuberance as gold, the dollar, and bonds have all retraced the January ‘one-way’ trade…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were lower across the board today, with bonds bid on the GDP data after overnight weakness. The long-end outperformed today (2Y -0.5bps, 30Y -4.5bps) which pushed 30Y yields lower on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ramped up to last week’s highs, ran those stops, and reversed to end the day lower…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin was once again spanked back below $24,000 overnight, but rallied back up to it during the US session…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold continued to drift lower, but found support at $1825…
Oil prices rallied – breaking a 6-day losing-streak – with WTI back above $75…
And finally, while everyone is commenting on the drop in NatGas prices, it is worth bearing in mind that while the US is paying around $2, Europe is still paying around $15… a still huge premium historically…
Source: Bloomberg
That ain’t cheap and that ain’t helping inflation over there
END.
LATE AFTERNOON TRADING//FOMC MINUTES
-END-
ii) USA DATA
The number of Americans on jobless benefits remain at one year highs
(zerohedge)
The Number Of Americans On Jobless Benefits Hovers Near One-Year Highs
THURSDAY, FEB 23, 2023 – 08:38 AM
Initial jobless claims continues to hover ‘bullishly’ around the 200k mark (last week was 192k), despite the ongoing news of mass layoffs (and severance), dropping to four-week lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing jobless claims also dipped last week from 1.691mm to 1.654mm (the biggest drop since December), but has been generally flat for 3 months.
Finally, the total number of Americans claiming some form of unemployment benefit rose to 1.941mm last week, hovering at one-year highs…
Source: Bloomberg
It seems the transmission mechanism from Fed rates to the ‘real’ economy is broken… or this lag is unprecedented.
end
They just revised its Q4 GDP lower to 2.7% as PCE unexpectedly comes in red hot. Expect Q 1 GDP to be much lower!
(zerohedge)
Q4 GDP Revised Lower As Core PCE Unexpectedly Comes In Hot
THURSDAY, FEB 23, 2023 – 08:56 AM
One month after the first Q4 GDP estimate surprised to the upside, coming in at 2.9% vs expectations of a 2.6% number, moments ago things gradually reverted to normalcy for a Biden admin that has seen its fair share of grossly manipulated economic data, when the BEA reported in its 2nd estimate of Q4 GDP that the economy actually grew almost as expected one month ago, revising the GDP print to a 2.7% (2.68% to be precise) increase from 2.9%.
The fourth-quarter increase in real GDP reflected increases in inventory investment, consumer spending, business investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by decreases in housing investment and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Turning to the revisions from the first estimate, real GDP was revised down 0.2% from the “advance” estimate and reflected a sharp downward revision to consumer spending (both goods and services) that was partly offset by an upward revision to business investment.
Specifically, this is how the revisions affected the 2.7% GDP bottom line:
Personal consumption was revised from 1.42% to just 0.93%, as the spending spree that supposedly defined the end of 2022 fizzled.
Fixed Investment offset much of this, however, with the original GDP deduction of -1.20% declining to just -0.81%
The Change in Private Inventories was effectively flat, or 1.47% vs 1.46% in the initial estimate
Net exports were a smaller contributor to GDP, adding 0.46% vs the 0.56% initial estimate
Government added 0.63%, in line with the 0.64% print initially.
As a reminder, with the change in private Inventories set to tumble as consumers save even more now that the Covid excess stimies have run out (and thus spend less), this means that Q1 GDP will come in far cooler than this print.
The BEA also reported that as a result of recent revisions, real disposable personal income (DPI)— personal income adjusted for taxes and inflation—increased 4.8% in the fourth quarter after increasing 3.2% in the third quarter. Current-dollar DPI increased 8.6% in the fourth quarter, following an increase of 7.7% (revised). The increase in current-dollar DPI for the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in compensation and personal current transfer receipts. On the other hand, personal saving as a percentage of DPI was 3.9% in the fourth quarter, compared with 3.2% (revised) in the third quarter.
Yet while GDP was revised lower, as the BEA finally admitted that the US consumer was getting tapped out, the market generally ignored the aged data as we have much more granular monthly updates; however what did spook futures was the BEA’s sharp upward revision to the GDP Price Index and Core PCE, which unexpectedly came in red hot:
GDP Price Index 3.9% vs 3.5% in the first estimate, and well above the 3.5% consensus estimate.
Core PCE Q/Q up 4.3% vs 3.9% in the first estimate, and also well above the 3.9% consensus estimate.
Despite the upward revision, the trend remains a declining one, even if the slope is somewhat shallower: as the BEA also notes, GDP prices, the prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents, increased 3.6% in the fourth quarter after increasing 4.8% in the third quarter. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 4.1% after increasing 5.0%.
In kneejerk response, emini futures slid from session highs hit just before the GDP print by some 10 points as traders were spooked by the hotter core PCE print, although they promptly rebounded remembering that this data is quite stale and that tomorrow we will get a more timely update for Personal Income, Spending and PCE Deflator for January, and which will likely shows continued disinflation.
iii) USA ECONOMIC NEWS
For your interest…
Is Biden Conning The Ukrainians? Claims Ukraine Flags Fly Across America
WEDNESDAY, FEB 22, 2023 – 07:25 PM
During his recent surprise visit to Ukraine, Joe Biden strutted out in front of press cameras with Volodymyr Zelensky to the sound of pre-planned air raid sirens and declared America’s ongoing support for the country’s war efforts. Biden’s appearance was coordinated with the announcement of a $2.5 billion weapons package, the 30th such package in the past year. However, what was not mentioned is that NATO has been shifting into older armor vehicles such as MRAPS and reducing valuable supplies of anti-tank weapons like the Javelin.
According to the inventories of multiple NATO countries, there has actually been a draw down of shipments as supplies become strained. Concerns are rising among NATO officials that they will not be able to continue arming Ukraine while also maintaining their own readiness, but the Biden Administration appears intent on at least giving the appearance that US backing is stronger than ever.
Some confusion surrounds the actual objectives of NATO backed Ukraine forces, as officials talk about not only taking back the Donbas, but also taking back Crimea which has been in Russian hands since 2014. These sentiments may sound like optimistic rhetoric designed to inspire, but they are certainly not realistic given the wide array of defenses that Russia is establishing to stall any approach. Not to mention, reports of counter actions in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions suggest the Russians are successfully targeting Ukrainian units – Even Zelensky openly admitted that the situation in Donetsk was “very difficult.”
After Biden’s dramatic display in Ukraine, he went on to Warsaw, Poland to give a speech on the developing conflict. One of his statements in particular deserves further analysis:
Biden proudly proclaims that Ukrainian flags are flying above homes in small towns and large cities across America, insinuating that the majority of Americans are in full support of what many now perceive to be a proxy war. Polls show American public support for Ukraine aid is waning, with conservatives losing all faith in the project. The tale of Ukraine flags flying across the US is also simply false. In general, you are are much more likely to see a “Let’s Go Brandon” flag over the front door of an American home than you are to see a Ukrainian flag.
But why is Biden trying to hype up Ukrainians using dishonest rhetoric? Biden’s surprise appearance and the announced weapons package feels more like a last-ditched effort to rally Ukraine against an impending onslaught he knows is coming soon. Either that, or it is an attempt to puff up, a display to show Putin that NATO is still very much in the game and distract from the reality that weapons supplies are faltering.
The flag comment could also be intended to give Ukrainians the false impression that Americans will eventually support direct troop deployment to the region, which should not be necessary unless Ukraine’s footing in the war is not as strong as has been asserted. It may be true that there are US advisers and perhaps even special forces on the ground in Ukraine, but the majority of US citizens are vehemently opposed to open warfare with Russia. In other words, “boots on the ground” is not going to happen without mass opposition and instability at home.
At bottom, the Biden visit with Zelensky and his bizarre claims in Poland signal a coming change in the war that is not yet clear.
end
As we told you; the cause of the derailment is overheated wheel bearings. Even though they have red boxes on each car to signal problems, there was nobody at the signal station capable of reading the danger signal.
(zerohedge)
NTSB’s Initial Report Points To ‘Overheated Wheel Bearing’ As Likely Cause Of Ohio Train Derailment
THURSDAY, FEB 23, 2023 – 02:20 PM
The National Transportation Security Board (NTSB) issued a preliminary report on the derailment of a Norfolk Southern freight train hauling toxic chemicals in East Palestine, Ohio, earlier this month, finding the incident was likely due to an overheated wheel bearing on one of the train cars.
NTSB released the initial findings from its three-week investigation after “five DOT-105 specification tank cars (railcars 28–31 and 55) carrying 115,580 gallons of vinyl chloride” derailed and were subsequently discharged through a controlled burn to prevent a catastrophic explosion. The spill and burn have polluted the air, water, and soil — residents in the small blue-collar town and surrounding communities have reported feeling sick while some pets and wildfire have mysteriously died.
“Surveillance video from a local residence showed what appeared to be a wheel bearing in the final stage of overheat failure moments before the derailment,” the report said. “The wheel bearing and affected wheelset have been collected as evidence and will be examined by the NTSB.”
Recall that we directed readers’ attention to this surveillance video over a week ago.
NTSB stated the freight train’s wayside defect detector, or hot bearing detector, instructed the crew to stop the train, but it was too late when one of the bearings reached 253 degrees above average, which meets Norfolk Southern’s criteria for “critical.” At that time, while the train was traveling 47 mph, below the speed limit of 50 mph, the engineer applied the brakes but was unable.
“After the train stopped, the crew observed fire and smoke and notified the Cleveland East dispatcher of a possible derailment,” the report said. First responders arrived on the scene around 2100 local time on Feb. 3. NTSB said first responders found:
“As a result of the derailment, 38 rail cars derailed and a fire ensued which damaged an additional 12 cars. There were 20 total hazardous material cars in the train consist—11 of which derailed.”
A one-mile evacuation zone, impacting 2,000 East Palestine residents, was immediately implemented after the derailment.
Two days after the derailment, the five derailed DOT-105 specification tank cars (railcars 28–31 and 55) carrying 115,580 gallons of vinyl chloride continued to experience rising temperatures.
“This increase in temperature suggested that the vinyl chloride was undergoing a polymerization reaction, which could pose an explosion hazard,” NTSB said.
Due to the increased risk of a massive explosion, Norfolk Southern began a “controlled venting” and burned the toxic chemicals on Feb. 6.
NTSB’s investigation is ongoing and will analyze the wheelset and bearing, as well as the venting and burning of the vinyl chloride.
Meanwhile, Norfolk Southern is busy ripping up tracks in East Palestine to remove contaminated soil under the rails that were quickly replaced to resume train service after the derailment.
“I said, ‘Come up with another plan to rip up those tracks and dig up that soil.’ And they gave me a plan this morning,” Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw said in a CNN Town Hall on Wednesday with residents from East Palestine. “We’re gonna do what’s right for this community.”
Here’s NTSB’s full preliminary report on the East Palestine train derailment.
see zerohedge
end
Figures!! Brake legislation would not have prevented this disaster. See above
(Feng/EpochTimes)
White House Blames Republicans, Former Trump Officials For Toxic Chemical Spill In Ohio
The White House criticized Republican lawmakers and the Trump administration on Wednesday, claiming they should be to blame for the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio.
The criticism came on the same day as former President Donald Trump visited the derailment site, during which he called out the Biden administration for its slow response.
“Congressional Republicans and former Trump administration officials owe East Palestine an apology for selling them out to rail industry lobbyists when they dismantled Obama-Biden rail safety protections as well as EPA powers to rapidly contain spills,” said Andrew Bates, a deputy White House press secretary, according to a statement.
He added, “Congressional Republicans laid the groundwork for the Trump Administration to tear up requirements for more effective train brakes, and last year most House Republicans wanted to defund our ability to protect drinking water.”
Bates challenged GOP lawmakers to set things right. He also tweeted out a 2021 letter signed by 20 GOP senators, asking the Federal Railroad Administration to increase the use of automated track inspections instead of human inspections.
“There is only one way they can prove that they are finally disowning their long history of giveaways to rail industry management at the expense of communities like East Palestine: work across the aisle with us to put Obama-Biden protections back in place and go further, including with higher fines for rail pollution and properly equipping the EPA,” Bates said.
However, National Transportation Safety Board Chair Jennifer Homendy, said last week on Twitter that the brake regulation would not have prevented the Ohio derailment, since it would have applied to “high-hazard flammable trains” (HHFT) transporting 20 or more loaded tank cars. She noted that the train derailed in Ohio was an HHFT but a “mixed freight train.”
The train derailed in East Palestine on Feb. 3, while traveling from Madison, Illinois, to Conway, Pennsylvania. The train was carrying a variety of products, including highly toxic vinyl chloride and other hazardous materials.
To avoid a potential explosion, Norfolk Southern, the company whose train derailed, conducted a “controlled release” of the chemicals on Feb. 6, which involved burning the chemicals and releasing fumes into the air.
Many local residents in East Palestine remain concerned about local air and water quality.
Republicans
Trump met with East Palestine Mayor Trent Conaway on Wednesday, a visit accompanied by Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) and Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio).
The former president criticized the Biden administration, noting that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announced to send a team to East Palestine only after announced his visit.
“When I announced that I was coming, they changed their tune,” Trump said, adding that his visit “opened up the dam” for the Biden administration to act.
“What this community needs now are not excuses and all of the other things you’ve been hearing, but answers and results, and that’s what I think you’re going to see,” he added.
Several Republicans took to Twitter to applaud Trump for deciding to visit East Palestine.
“Was great to have the president in East Palestine today,” Vance wrote.
“We need to keep working to get the residents the help they need. Kudos to the mayor, the fire chief, and other local officials for performing well under impossible conditions.”
Rep. Majorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) thanked Trump for “continuing to show what America First looks like.”
“President Trump visits the people of East Palestine, Ohio and brings them water & supplies while Joe Biden only cares about pushing more war and US money in Ukraine,” she wrote.
Some Republicans have directed their criticism at Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who is scheduled to visit East Palestine on Thursday.
“19 DAYS have passed since the catastrophic train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio. 19 DAYS,” Rep. Mike Bost (R-Ill.) wrote on Twitter on Feb. 22. “In the meantime, Joe Biden jets off to Europe and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg just now gets around to planning a visit to the crash site.”
Rep. Ben Cline (R-Va.) wrote on Twitter that Buttigieg is “finally” visiting East Palestine.
“Once again, the Biden administration’s response to yet ANOTHER crisis is too little, too late,” Cline wrote.
END
Updates on the East Palestine disaster
(Jeff Louderback/EpochTimes)
Man Finds Undetonated Blasting Cap 1.4 Miles From Ohio Derailment
Like many residents who live within a few miles of Norfolk Southern Railway’s Feb. 3 train derailment, Jerry Corbin evacuated before the railroad decided to conduct a controlled burn of five freight cars containing the toxic vinyl chloride on Feb. 6.
When he returned to his home in Darlington Township, Pennsylvania—around 1.4 miles from the crash site—Corbin discovered two surprises. Black debris that resemble ash was strewn all over his yard and on his roof, and an “undetonated blasting cap” landed in a pasture near his house.
On the evening of Feb. 3, a Norfolk Southern train carrying 151 cars derailed in East Palestine, a village of 4,761 located in eastern Ohio near the Pennsylvania border.
According to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), “38 rail cars derailed, and a fire ensued which damaged an additional 12 cars.”
Of the cars that derailed, 11 contained hazardous materials, the NTSB said.
Seeking to avoid an explosion, Norfolk Southern decided to release and burn vinyl chloride from five rail cars, which sent flames and thick black smoke billowing into the sky once more.
Corbin believes the blasting cap, which has a wire and is filled with cotton, was used to help detonate the cars in the controlled burn.
“It’s not real big. It would blow your hand off,” Corbin said of the blasting cap. “I contacted someone in the military and asked him about it. He said don’t have any static electricity around it, don’t drop it.”
Vinyl chloride is a chemical used to make PVC pipes and other products. The National Cancer Institute notes that vinyl chloride has been linked to cancers of the brain, lungs, blood, lymphatic system, and liver.
Other rail cars contained ethylene glycol monobutyl ether, ethylhexyl acrylate, isobutylene, and butyl acrylate, which are all used in the making of plastic products.
“The night of the crash, my wife and I were driving into East Palestine to go to the store, and we saw the fire and the smoke,” Corbin explained. “I have asthma, so even before there was an evacuation order, we packed a few bags and went to a hotel away from the area.”
Before the controlled burn, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine urged residents in a 1-mile by 2-mile area surrounding East Palestine—which included parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania—to evacuate.
During an initial phone conversation, the EPA said the ash on Corbin’s property was not from the derailment, Corbin said.
“Then they sent some people out, and they were astonished about what they saw,” Corbin said, adding that the EPA representatives took samples of the ash before they left.
“A few days later, some more people from the EPA stopped by and took more samples,” Corbin said. “I asked them to let me know what is in that ash before we plant our garden. We haven’t heard anything from them since.”
Don’t be fooled. Two important pieces of data came out this week that should be paid close attention to.
On February 16th, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for February was released. According to MarketWatch, the median estimate called for a decline of -7.8. The actual result was a decline -24.3.
The official press release noted the following:
“The diffusion index for current activity fell from a reading of -8.9 last month to -24.3 this month, its sixth consecutive negative reading and lowest reading since May 2020.”
You might wonder, “What is the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, and why does it matter to me?”
The Philly Fed
What is it?
The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (official name) is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants: employment, working hours, new and unfilled orders, shipments, inventories, delivery times, prices paid, and prices received. The survey has been conducted each month since May 1968.
Why does it matter?
Here is a good synopsis provided by TheStreet.com.
The survey, conducted each month since May 1968, is the oldest among the 12 Fed banks monitoring regional manufacturing activities and is often viewed as accurately reflecting the pace of growth in manufacturing nationally. The survey’s influence as a leading economic indicator has pushed other regional banks to publish their own polls for their districts.
A reading greater than zero suggests expansion in manufacturing, while a reading of less than zero indicates contraction.Because the data span more than 50 years, the index reliably provides an early indication of whether the economy might be slipping into recession. The Philadelphia Fed asserts that its survey leads other indicators by weeks and correlates strongly with lagging indicators such as employment and industrial production.
Here is a chart of each monthly reading since the inception of the index in 1968. The most recent reading was a decline of -24.3, denoted by a horizontal black dashed line on the chart below. Note: the vertical red shaded areas denote recessionary periods in the US.
A few interesting observations from this chart and the most recent reading in particular.
In six of the eight recessions since the 1960’s, when the index fell to -24.3, or lower, the US economy was already in a recession.
In the two instances where this was not the case, September ’79 & January ’01, the US economy entered a recession 4-months and 2-months later, respectively.
Some will argue that the US economy has transitioned more towards a “service-based” economy vs. a “manufacturing-based” economy over the last several decades, and while that is a true statement, McKinsey & Company noted the following in August ’22:
“US manufacturing may be poised for an overhaul and a rebound, with a potentially significant impact on the nation’s overall economy. In the United States, manufacturing accounts for $2.3 trillion in GDP, employs 12 million people, and supports hundreds of local economies. Although that represents just 11 percent of US GDP and 8 percent of direct employment, the sector makes a disproportionate economic contribution, including 20 percent of the nation’s capital investment, 35 percent of productivity growth, 60 percent of exports, and 70 percent of business R&D spending.”
So, yes, the US has moved more towards a “service-based” economy over the last 40+ years, yet, since “peak manufacturing” in 1979, we’ve had six recessions where the two bullet points above hold true. So, this time has to be completely different than history, or we should expect the US economy to enter a recession in the future.
Conference Board LEI
This week’s second piece of important data was The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), released on February 17th.
As the name would imply, this index looks at 10 different components that The Conference Board believes are predictive, or “leading”, with respect to the direction of the US economy.
The LEI fell by -0.3% in January, following a decline of -0.8% in December.
The Conference Board made the following observations in their press release:
“The LEI is now down 3.6% over the six-month period between July 2022 and January 2023 – a steeper rate of decline than its 2.4% contraction over the previous six-month period (January – July 2022).”
Further, they note:
“The US LEI remained on a downward trajectory, but its rate of decline moderated slightly in January,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics, at The Conference Board. “Among the leading indicators, deteriorating manufacturing new orders, consumers’ expectations of business conditions, and credit conditions more than offset strengths in labor markets and stock prices to drive the index lower in the month. The contribution of the yield spread component of the LEI also turned negative in the last two months, which is often a signal of recession to come. While the LEI continues to signal recession in the near term, indicators related to the labor market—including employment and personal income—remain robust so far. Nonetheless, The Conference Board still expects high inflation, rising interest rates, and contracting consumer spending to tip the US economy into recession in 2023.”
The Conference Board provides the following chart with each release. Note where the current reading “Jan ‘23” is relative to the “Recession signal” in red.
Don’t Be Fooled
The image below has made the rounds many times on the Internet, and I think it fairly represents what we see in the various “Stages of a Bubble”. While the exact shape of red line will never be exactly the same, I think the creator of this chart has done a good job capturing the human emotion/sentiment associated with each of the various stages of a bubble.
If we were to translate this image to stock market today (as represented by the S&P 500 on a monthly basis), I don’t think it would be stretch to suggest that the market highs of early 2022 might align well with the “New Paradigm”!!! peak on the chart above.
Further, there has been a shift of late in the narrative as it pertains to the US economy and where we might be heading as we’ve gone from a “hard landing” (i.e., a difficult, prolonged recession), to a “soft landing” (i.e., we have a recession, but it won’t be that bad), and now a “no landing” (i.e., we avoid a recession altogether).
Don’t be fooled. This is classic “Return to Normal” behavior!
If we take the chart above and overlay the S&P 500 monthly chart on top of it, here is what we get. It’s not a perfect one-for-one match but I think it’s close enough to make the point.
As I said in “Reading the FOMC Tea Leaves” and in “Layoffs…What Are They Telling Us?”, the goal isn’t to spark fear or panic, instead, my desire is to prepare you for what may be coming and to remind you that recessions, and the associated market downturn, often present generational buying opportunities assuming you have the capital available to do it.
Until next time…
end
In the uSA parents are increasingly moving back to live with their kids
this is a good read
(Mish Shedlock)
Parents Increasingly Move Back In With Their Kids, What’s Going On?
The number of Americans who live in multigenerational family households is about four times larger than it was in the 1970s, while the number in other types of homes grew by far less. The share of the U.S. population living in multigenerational homes more than doubled over the past five decades.
After declining in earlier decades, multigenerational living has grown steadily in the U.S. since the 1970s. From 1971 to 2021, the number of people living in multigenerational households quadrupled, while the number in other types of living situations is less than double what it was. The share of the U.S. population in multigenerational homes has more than doubled, from 7% in 1971 to 18% in 2021.
Multigenerational living is growing in part because groups that account for most recent overall population growth in the U.S., including foreign-born, Asian2, Black and Hispanic Americans, are more likely to live with multiple generations under one roof. Thus, the rise in the multigenerational family household population is linked to the changing makeup of the overall U.S. population. However, multigenerational living also is rising among non-Hispanic White Americans, who accounted for a higher share of the multigenerational household population growth from 2000 to 2021 (28%) than of total population growth (9%).
Among major racial and ethnic groups, Americans who are Asian, Black or Hispanic are more likely than those who are White to live in a multigenerational family household.
About a quarter of Asian (24%), Black (26%) and Hispanic (26%) Americans lived in multigenerational households in 2021, compared with 13% of those who are White.
Since 2000, the multigenerational household population has grown by 22.1 million people, but some groups played a larger role than others in driving that change. Americans younger than 40 accounted for almost half (49%) of the increase in the multigenerational household population but only 17% of overall population growth. In general, young adults are marrying later and staying in school longer than previous generations, which may contribute to their rising inclination to live with other family members under one roof.
There are a variety of reasons why adults live in multigenerational households, but financial considerations top the list. Many also say that this is just the arrangement they’ve always had or that caring for an adult family member or receiving care is a reason for their living arrangement. Relatively few say the reasons they live in a multigenerational household are related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
For the most part, adults living in multigenerational households say this has been a positive experience, with at least half saying their arrangement is often convenient and rewarding. Still, about a quarter say living with other adult family members can be stressful all or most of the time, and this is particularly the case among adult children living with a parent.
The experiences of adults in multigenerational households often vary by income; and, among adult children living with a parent, by age. For example, those with lower incomes are more likely than those with middle and upper incomes to say there’s not enough space to live comfortably. Younger adults (ages 25 to 39) who are living with a parent are much more likely than those ages 40 and older to see financial benefits in the arrangement and much less likely to say they contribute anything toward the mortgage or rent in their household.
Financial Stress and Demographics
Unsurprisingly, finances are a factor in 67 percent of these decisions. It’s a major factor in 40 percent of these arrangements.
There are more households over time so the number of multigenerational households will also increase over time even if the percentages stay the same.
However, PEW notes that non-Hispanic White Americans accounted for a higher share of the multigenerational household population growth from 2000 to 2021 (28%) than of total population growth (9%).
Judging from the cost of food and rent, it’s easy to understand the financial stress.
Among lower-income workers, a massive 61 percent say they are worse off now than a year ago.
Financial stress is on the rise.
Both PEW articles are about a year old.
With rent and food prices soaring, and with mortgage rates making homes the most unaffordable in decades, I am sure PEW’s numbers are understated, perhaps by a lot.
Amazing: this small Kentucky town explodes with dollar stores
(zerohedge)
Dollar Store “Mania” Hits Small Kentucky Town
WEDNESDAY, FEB 22, 2023 – 08:05 PM
Brick-and-mortar dollar stores have expanded rapidly nationwide over the past two years. These discount retailers bring rural consumers more buying power during high inflation periods. One town in eastern Kentucky has had what the Daily Mail calls a “dollar store mania” as these retailers take over the town.
Olive Hill has a population of 1,600. About a third of the residents live below the poverty line, which is higher than the national average of 12.8%.
Given low incomes and cheap land around the tiny town, it makes sense why dollar stores are flooding the small town to take advantage of poor residents.
Daily Mail said the town has two Family Dollar locations and four Dollar General stores. One resident said:
“It seems like there’s a dollar store every few feet.”
The reason why discount retailers are flooding small towns was explained by John Mercer, head of global research at Coresight, who WSJ quoted:
High inflation has increased the appeal of dollar stores’ relatively low prices. But the expansion of the sector is rooted in structural changes in U.S. shopping habits that predate the current economic cycle.
Mercer said more and more shoppers are turning to dollar stores for groceries. This comes as low-income folks have been battered with 21 months of negative real wage growth, depleted savings, maxed-out credit cards, and the highest credit card rates in years.
The challenging macroeconomic climate suggests low-income consumers have trouble affording traditional items at stores and supermarkets and must downshift to discount retailers. That’s why dollar stores have been the fastest-growing food retailers by share of household expenditure, with growth in rural areas more than doubling in the last decade, according to a recent study.
However, affordable food at dollar stores comes at a health cost to low-income consumers who will only be able to find high-calorie, ultra-processed packaged foods — not exactly healthy.
And while these big corporations are increasingly building dollar stores in small towns. Perhaps these companies could also build diabetes clinics.
China’s Top Diplomat Lauds Strength of Russia Ties in Putin Meeting – WSJ Beijing, Moscow reaffirm partnership that both view as a bulwark against U.S.-led world order Russian President Vladimir Putin and China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, touted the resilience of their countries’ partnership amid growing antagonism with the West, as Moscow presses on with its war in Ukraine and Beijing says it seeks a role as a mediator in the conflict. The partnership between the two countries has deepened since the start of the war, troubling the U.S. and its Western allies. Both countries have declared that their friendship has “no limits” and China has extended an economic lifeline to Russia, which is grappling with Western sanctions in response to its Ukraine invasion… https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-top-diplomat-lauds-strength-of-russia-ties-in-putin-meeting-a87d36b4
Fox: China, Russia Team Up, Tensions Escalate
WaPo: A year later, China blames U.S. ‘hegemony’ — not Russia — for war in Ukraine Ahead of the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China has launched a public diplomacy offensive to wrest control of the narrative about its role in the conflict, trying to clear itself of accusations that it has sided with Russia while accusing the United States of turning the conflict into a “proxy” war… https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/22/china-us-blame-ukraine-war/
NYT: China’s Economic Support for Russia Could Elicit More Sanctions U.S. officials pledged to crack down on shipments to Russia that can be used for both civilian and military purposes, but that has proved hard to police. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/22/us/politics/china-russia-sanctions.html
@ces921: 2yrBreakeven yields moving above 3% and now above the Jackson Hole levels. Still well anchored? Moves like this make is harder for the Fed to say they are close to down with the tightening. May be hard for minutes to confirm 5.4% dot since meeting was pre-Jan data releases but as data continues to positively surprise and market walks up inflation expectations, expect $ up, yields up, risk down. Throw in a little geopolitical concern as we move into 1yr anniv of Russia invasion. Equity market risks too wildly underpriced still.https://twitter.com/ces921/status/1628424375765458944
ESHs rallied moderately during early Nikkei trading but rolled over during the 2nd Session. After the requisite rally into the European open, ESHs sank until 3:44 ET. ESHs and stocks then chopped sideways in a wide range until they broke down and hit new lows at 6:36 ET.
ESHs surged 25 handles higher by 7:35 ET. ESHs and stocks then declined until a rally materialized 10 minutes after the NYSE opening. The rally ended at 9:38 ET; ESHs and stocks tumbled until 10:30 ET. ESHs and stocks then plodded higher until 13:35 ET. ESHs and stocks then went inert ahead of the release of the FOMC Minutes from February 1.
Fed Inclined Toward More Hikes to Curb Inflation, Minutes Show – BBG “Participants observed that a restrictive policy stance would need to be maintained until the incoming data provided confidence that inflation was on a sustained downward path to 2%, which was likely to take some time,” according to the minutes of the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 gathering… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-22/fed-inclined-toward-more-hikes-to-curb-inflation-minutes-show
FOMC Minutes HighlightsAlmost all Fed officials wanted a 25bp rate hike, some wanted a 50bp rate hike.Fed saw upside inflation risks as key factor shaping outlook – BBG“Almost all participants observed that slowing the pace of rate increases at the current juncture would allow for appropriate risk management.”“A number of participants observed that a policy stance that proved to be insufficiently restrictive could halt recent progress in moderating inflationary pressures.”‘Some’ officials thought easier financial conditions could mean tighter monetary policy – WSJParticipants said the job market remains “very tight.”The FOMC Minutes were moderately hawkish as expected. But some traders want to generate a relief rally and conditioned traders want to buy the dip.
ESHs spiked higher on the release of the FOMC Minutes but they quickly tumbled 20 handles in 1 minute. Aggressive buying pushed ESHs 20 handles higher in 5 minutes. ESHs then sank 14 handles in 2 minutes. Another rally attempt ended at 14:10 ET; ESHs sank until 14:16 ET. ESHs then spiked higher. The volatility was ridiculous.
ESHs and stocks formed a bottom near 14:45 ET. The pre-last hour rally ended within 5 minutes. ESHs and stocks sank to new session lows. A bottom formed at 15:03 ET. After an 11-handle ESH rally that peaked at 13:25 ET, ESHs and stocks dropped to new sessions lows. A final rally appeared at 15:50 ET.
@bennyjohnson: Tens of thousands of pounds of goods, food, water being delivered to the people of East Palestine, Ohio right now before Trump’s visit. Trump paid for all of it. Number of goods delivered from the Biden Administration: 0. https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1628469529327071234
Today – Rebound/relief rallies for stocks and bonds appeared. However, the rallies were labored. The equity rally evaporated after the 14:15 ET VIX Fix. Most traders want to play for a rebound rally on Wednesday after Tuesday’s big decline. Many traders expected dovish FOMC Minutes. The afternoon tumble after the FOMC Minutes closed the S&P 500 Index 9 handles below 4000. A 15-handle ESM manipulation during the final 10 minutes of trading truncated equity losses.
The risk for equities remains to be self-reinforcing momentum selling now that the technical indicators and market psychology has turned negative – and few participants expect a Fed Pivot this year.
Traders will play for an equity rally after 4 straight declines. ESHs are +14.50 at 20:40 ET on buying for an expected rally and Nvidia says 3-month sales ending in April will be $6.5B; $6.35B was consensus.
Expected economic data: Q4 GDP 2.9%, Consumption 1.9%, GDP Price Index 3.5%, Core PCE 3.9%; Jan Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.25; Initial Jobless Claims 200k, Continuing Claims 1.7m; February KC Fed Mfg Activity -3; Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic 10:50 ET; SF Fed Pres Daly 14:00 ET
@paulsperry_: IRS records reveal donations/grants to Beau Biden Foundation mysteriously surged to $3.8 mil in 2020 as Biden ran for president, from $693k in 2019 & $535k in 2016. The 501(c)3 hides its donors. House Oversight is probing anonymous Chinese gifts to UPenn/Penn Biden Cntr IRS-990 filings reveal the Bidens added ex-FBI chief Louis Freeh to the board of directors of the Beau Biden Foundation after Freeh pumped $100k into a trust fund for Joe Biden’s grandkids. Freeh, who’s Irish, referred to Biden as “Dad” in emails found on Hunter’s laptop.
Arkansas cops rule suicide in death of Clinton aide linked to Jeffrey Epstein – who was found shot and tied to a tree with an electrical cord around his neck – despite no sign of weaponBill Clinton’s special advisor Mark Middleton, who signed Jeffrey Epstein into the White House several times, killed himself in May 2022According to the police report, Middleton was found with a gunshot wound to his chest and an extension cord tied around his neck and attached to a treehttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11759771/Mystery-Bill-Clinton-advisor-dead-gunshot-wound-no-gun.html
Uproar as Fox host Tucker Carlson gets Capitol riot videos – BBC Leading Democrats said the release could expose security secrets and endanger Capitol Police officers… Carlson said: “Some of our smartest producers have been looking at this stuff… and how it contradicts or not the story we’ve been told for more than two years. “We think already in some ways that it does contradict that story.”… https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64670742
@charliekirk11: Why are the Democrats so afraid the January 6 footage is going to be released?
‘New Illinois’ sets meetings to pursue forming new state New Illinois is an organization in Illinois pursuing the formation of a new state, “separate from the current State of Illinois, Urban Cook County and Chicago,” according to a news release. “The United States Constitution gives us the right to a representative government in Article IV, Section 4,” the release says. “However, in Illinois this is not the case. All power in Illinois government is concentrated in Cook County and Chicago. This leaves the rest of the States’ residents with no real representation.” “Article IV, Section 3 of the United States Constitution gives us the process to follow to declare our independence from the failed State of Illinois,” the release says… https://www.ourquadcities.com/news/local-news/new-illinois-sets-meetings-to-pursue-forming-new-state/amp/
Japan Covid Data Update 日本の新型コロナウイルス感染症データ https://t.co/GGqCuIKAWt” / Twitter
️ “Putin thought he could use energy as a weapon. But no. We mobilized and reduced our dependence on russian energy resources,” — Biden said.
https://t.co/id5QcThLPE pic.twitter.com/gcwxXEG4zh
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