April 4//2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $0, TO $2019.80

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $.04   AT $24.93

work in progress.

Access prices: closes : 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 2020.70

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 24.93

Bitcoin morning price:, $28,522 UP 379 Dollars

  Bitcoin: afternoon price: $28,177 UP 143 dollars

Platinum price closing  $1001.80 UP $11.85

Palladium price; closing $1435.80 DOWN $25.80

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2729.23 UP 1.70 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2732.50)

BRITISH GOLD: 1621.45 UP 3.94 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//1629.84)

EURO GOLD: 1853,35 UP  8,13 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH//1860.82)

COMEX DATA  EXCHANGE: 

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,022.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/04/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 04/06/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

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072 C GOLDMAN 11
104 C MIZUHO 5
132 C SG AMERICAS 5
323 C HSBC 412
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 30
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 61
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 3
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 151
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 76
661 C JP MORGAN 88 60
661 H JP MORGAN 90
690 C ABN AMRO 2
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 2
800 C MAREX SPEC 16 17
880 C CITIGROUP 55
880 H CITIGROUP 128
905 C ADM 1 5

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TOTAL: 609 609
MONTH TO DATE: 20,498

PMORGAN stopped 60/ 689  contracts

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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2023. CONTRACT:  689 NOTICES FOR 68900 OZ  or  2.1430 TONNES

total notices so far: 20,498 contracts for 2,049,800 oz (62,363 tonnes)

 

SILVER NOTICES: 11 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 55,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month :  223 for 1,115,000 oz 

 

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END

GLD

WITH GOLD  UP $36.30

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD

/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:////// A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.02TONNES FROM THE GLD.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.02 TONNES 

Silver//SLV

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $1,11 

WOW!! WHAT CROOKS:

AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 463.942 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MONSTER SIZED 7472 TO 131,344 AND CLOSER TO THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH  OUR HUGE  $1.11 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY.  WITH LAST WEEK’S READING AT THE COMEX  , WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS , MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $1.11). AND WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A MONSTER GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 11,027 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 500 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF  EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER (  THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 8.5 MILLION OZ.)  WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY .  WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 
A  HUGE  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 3555 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT  1.055 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE)+ THE 8.5 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 9.255 MILLION OZ/ ////  V)  HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/.

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  –134 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS APRIL. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAR: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 3 days, total 6979 contracts:   OR 30.395  MILLION OZ . (2326 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:30.395 MILLION OZ 

.

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ 

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE BUT BELOW LAST MONTH

APRIL  30.395 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC  SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 7472 CONTRACTS WITH OUR  $1.11 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A  HUGE  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 3555 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL OF  1.055 MILLION  OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE//  65,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP  (WHICH INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 8.5 MILLION NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED EARLY IN APRIL (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW STANDING 9.255 MILLION OZ  .. WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 11,161 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 

 WE HAD 11 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR   55,000  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 15,440   CONTRACTS  TO 476,392  AND CLOSER TO  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED 634 CONTRACTS

WE HAD A HUGE  SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI ( 15,440 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR  $36.30 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APR. AT 66.892 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE // PLUS A 7000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP:(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of   COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London)YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $36.30 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN  OF 24,556 OI CONTRACTS (76.38 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 9116 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 475,958

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 24,556 CONTRACTS  WITH 15,440 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 9116 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 24,556 CONTRACTS OR 76,38 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (9116 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (15,440 //TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 24,556 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG  ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 66.892 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 7000 OZ//NEW STANDING  67.269 TONNES   // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4)  GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

MAR

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAR :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED:  13,747 CONTRACTS OR 1,374,700 OZ OR 42.76 TONNES IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4582 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  42.76 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  42.76 /3550 x 100% TONNES  1.21% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL 

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 42.76 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD 

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 7472 CONTRACTS OI TO  131,210  AND  CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022 

EFP ISSUANCE 3555  CONTRACTS 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY 3555 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  3555  CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 7472 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 3555 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,027 CONTRACTS. 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES //55.805 MILLION OZ(WHICH REPRESENTS AROUND 7% OF ANNUAL SILVER PRODUCTION FROM ALL MINING)

OCCURRED WITH OUR $1.11 GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

 2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED  //Hang Sang CLOSED      /The Nikkei closed DOWN 474.16PTS OR 1.68%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.19 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.8795 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP  TO 6.8795   /Oil UP TO 80.54 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 84.83 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3  CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE  BY A HUGE SIZED 15,440 CONTRACTS UP TO 476,392 WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $36.30 ON TUESDAY,

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 9116  EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  JUNE 9116 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 9116 CONTRACTS 

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION,  EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN ASTRONOMICAL TOTAL OF 24,556 CONTRACTS IN THAT 9116 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 15,440  COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $36,30. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG. 

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:    APRIL  (67.269) ( ACTIVE MONTH)

TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL 

Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2003:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 67.269  tonnes

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $36.30  //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR MONSTER SIZED GAIN OF 24,556 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES  

 WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 76,38 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL. (66.892 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S EFP JUMP TO LONDON OF 7000 OZ… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH  OUR GAIN IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $36.30

WE HAD + ADDED 634 CONTRACTS REMOVED TO THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 24,556  CONTRACTS OR 2,455,600  OZ OR 76,38TONNES.

Estimated gold comex today 198,444/fair

final gold volumes/yesterday  245,200 //FAIR

//APRIL 5/ APRIL  2023 CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	15,593.235 OZ DELAWARE HSBC INT. DELAWARE 220 KILOBARS 250 KILOBARS 15 KILOBARS         .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	48,226,500 OZ MANFRA 1500 KILOBARS
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	160,753.000 oz MANFRA 5,000 KILOBARS
No of oz served (contracts) today	689 notice(s) 68,900 OZ 2.2143 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	1129 contracts    112900  oz 3.511 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	20,498 notices 2,049,800  OZ 62.363 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

i)Dealer deposits: 1

I) INTO MANFRA:  48,226.500 OZ 5000 KILOBARS

total dealer deposit: 48,226.500  oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits:  1

I) INTO JPMORGAN:  160,755.000 OZ (5,000 KILOBARS)

total deposits: 160,755.000 oz

 customer withdrawals: 3

I) OUT OF DELAWARE:  7073.22 OZ

II) OUT OF HSBC  8037.75 OZ

III) OUT OF INT. DELAWARE  482.265 OZ

total withdrawals: 15,593.235    oz 

in tonnes:0.

Adjustments;  0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.

For the front month of APRIL we have an oi of 1818 contracts having LOST 781 contracts.

We had 711 contracts filed on Monday, so we LOST 70 contracts or 7000 oz (0.2177 tonnes) were EFP’d to London

May LOST 39  contracts to stand at 1528

JUNE  GAINED 13,785 contracts to 409,885

We had 689  notice(s) filed today for 68900  oz 

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  88 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 689 contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 60 notice(s) was (were) stopped   received by J.P.Morgan//customer account   and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2023. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (20,498x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  (APRIL. 1818 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  689 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,162,700 OZ  OR 67.269 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this   active month of APRIL. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:No of notices filed so far (20,498 x 100 oz+ XX OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (689)x 100 oz} which equals 2,162700 oz standing OR 67.269 TONNES in this active delivery month of APRIL.. 

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 67.713 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.  

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 o

total pledged gold:  1,643,341.368  OZ   51.114 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  21,769,099.131  OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:  12,274,064.074    (381.77 tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,495,035,057 O Z  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,630,723  OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 330.66tonnes//

END

SILVER/COMEX

APRIL 5//2023// THE APRIL 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	668,940.006oz Brinks CNT Delaware JPMorgan .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	NIL oz WITHDRAWALS 814,070.470 OZ BRINKS CNT LOOMIS
No of oz served today (contracts)	11 CONTRACT(S)    (55,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	28 contracts  (140,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	223Contracts  (1,115,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits:  nil   oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals:  oz

We have 0 deposits into the customer account

i

Total deposits: NIL oz 

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 143,075 million oz/276.742 million =51.81% of comex .//dropping fast

  Comex withdrawals: 3

i)Out of Brinks 112,373.900 oz

ii) Out of CNT 101,197.260 oz

iii) out of LOOMIS 600,499.310 oz

Total withdrawals; 814,070.470 oz

adjustments: 0

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 35.486 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 276.782million oz

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2023 OI: 39  CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 1 CONTRACT(S. WE HAD 14 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 13 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 65,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.

MAY SAW A GAIN OF 3702 CONTRACTS UP TO 93,420 (UNBELIEVABLE//WITH MAY THE FRONT MONTH??)

JUNE HAD A 7 CONTRACT GAIN I AND RISES TO 31

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 11 for 55,000  oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today  72,256 good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 92,366 Contracts ( EXCELLENT)

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 223 x  5,000 oz = 1,115,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL(39) and the number of notices served upon today 11 X (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the APRIL/2023 contract month:  223 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL (39) – number of notices served upon today (11 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the APRIL. contract month equates 1.255 million oz  +/ EXCHANGE FOR RISK NOW TOTALS 8.5 MILLION OZ //new total standing 9.755 million oz

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

APRIL 5//WITH GOLD UP XX TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT XXXX

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $36.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES

APRIL 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES

MARCH 30//WITH GOLD UP XX TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.47 TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4,16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 927,23

MARCH 28/WITH GOLD UP $19.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.07 TONNES

MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.97 TONNES

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $47.70 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT 87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.42 TONNES

MARCH 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.4 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55 TONNES

MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $50.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72 TONNES

MARCH 15/THE IDES OF MARCH:  WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 11.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $48.85 TODAY: VERY STRANGE HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 901.42 TONNES

MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.15 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $0.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD UP $12.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.61 TONNES

FEB 27/WITH GOLD UP $6.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES

FEB 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.10 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.32 TONNES

FEB 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 919.92 TONNES

FEB 22/WITH GOLD DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.92 TONNES

FEB 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES

FEB 16/WITH GOLD UP $6.80 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSITOF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES

FEB 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES

FEB 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES

FEB 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES 

FEB 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF .0.38 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 920.79 TONNES

FEB 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.10 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 930.04 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP XX TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.942  MILLION OZ

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $1.11 TODAY CRIMINAL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463,942 MILLIONOZ

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.412

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A MASSIVE 4.779 MILLION OZ DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT465.412 MILLION OZ

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER UP XX CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A DEPOSIT OF 550,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.633 MILLION OZ

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.082

MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.887 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 230,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.255 MILLION OZ

MARCH 23  WITH SILVER UP 62 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 919,000 0z INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.485 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 781,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.566 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 20./WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.401 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.347 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 79 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.748 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.009 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.226 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 643,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.235 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.287 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 477.592 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP $1.35 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10.WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ…

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.979 MILLION OZ

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWALOF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.684 MILLION OZ

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.143 MILLION OZ

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ

MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.

FEB 28/WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.241 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 481.188

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.471 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 482.429 MILLION OZ

FEB 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.172 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.900 MILLION OZ//

FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.379 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 487.072 MILLION OZ//

FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 689,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 485.693 MILLION OZ

FEB 21/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.5363 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 486.382 MILLION OZ//

FEB 17/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 827,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 484.819 MILLION OZ/

FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 690,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.992 MILLION OZ//

FEB 15/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//

FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 1  CENT TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 460,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.302 MILLION OZ//

FEB 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ//

FEB 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.762 MILLION OZ

FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: INVENTORY RESTS AT 483.76 MILLION OZ (CORRECTED).//

CLOSING INVENTORY 463.942MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

End

2 Lawrie Williams//Pam and Russ Martens/Jim Rickards/Mathew Piepenburg/Von Greyerz//Rickards/John Rubino

Rickards: Why The Panic Is Just Beginning

WEDNESDAY, APR 05, 2023 – 02:20 PM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

Let’s step back from today’s banking financial crisis and look at the bigger picture. That will help us to understand the system dynamics, and estimate how long the crisis might last, and how destructive it might be.

As a preliminary matter, let’s distinguish between a recession (even a bad one) and a financial crisis. They’re different.

A recession is a part of the business cycle. It involves some combination of tighter monetary conditions, higher unemployment, business failures, inventory dumping, declines in industrial output and declining GDP.

In recent decades, we’ve had recessions in 1973, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2000, 2007 and 2020. That’s a tempo of one recession about every seven years, although the recessions of 1980 and 1981 show that back-to-back recessions are possible.

Of those, the 2007 recession lasted the longest (one year and six months). The 2020 recession produced the most severe decline in GDP (down 19.2%).

The U.S. is likely in another recession right now, but we won’t have confirmation of that until more first-half data is revealed.

Over the same 50-year period, we’ve had a succession of financial crises.

These included the Latin American debt crisis (1982–1987), the Savings & Loan Crisis (1986–1989), the Black Monday crash (Oct. 19, 1987), the Nikkei collapse (1990), the Mexican Tequila Crisis  (1994), The Asia-Russia-LTCM crisis (1997–1998), the dot-com crash (2000) and the subprime mortgage crisis (2007–2008).

That’s eight crises in 50 years or a tempo of one crisis about every six years.

So much for the “Black Swan” theory, and the idea of 5-sigma events that occur once every 14,000 years. That’s junk science. These things happen all the time.

What’s interesting about financial crises is that they are rarely the same. Some produce large losses but there’s no acute stage where the financial system is hanging by a thread. The Latin American debt crisis, the S&L crisis, and the Nikkei collapse fit into that category.

They lasted for years, but they were manageable in a cash and accounting sense. In some ways, the Nikkei collapse is still going on thirty-five years after it happened because the Nikkei stock index has never recovered the 40,000 level it hit in late 1989.

Other crises were acute but came and went without threatening the banking system. The 1987 flash crash was a good example. It happened, but not much else happened. Two days after the crash turned out to be a great time to buy stocks!

A similar analysis applies to the Mexican Tequila Crisis and the Dot.com collapse. They were over quickly, the banking system as a whole was never threatened, and astute investors with cash could buy in at the low and ride the next wave up.

The only two crises that did come close to destroying the global financial system were the Asia-Russia-LTCM crisis in 1998, and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis in 2007 – 2008.

Even those crises had important differences.

The Asia-Russia-LTCM crisis was acute but there was no recession. Economic growth and the stock market bubble didn’t peak until 2000.

What sets the 2007 – 2008 crisis apart is that it was an existential financial crisis and a severe recession. (The 2020 recession was the most severe, but there was no financial crisis).

If we set the clock at 1973 and count 1998 and 2008 as the only existential crises, then the tempo is once every twenty-five years. That’s a small sample. The last acute crisis was fifteen years ago.

We can draw several conclusions from this data.

• The first is that recessions and financial crises are different.
• The second is that recessions have much in common but financial crises tend to be idiosyncratic and unpredictable.
• The third is that existential financial crises really are rare; only two in the past fifty years.
• The fourth and most important conclusion is that the combination of a recession and an existential financial crisis is extremely rare.

The events of 2007 – 2008 are the only such combined case in our timeline.

You have to go back to the Great Depression of 1929 – 1940 to find a similar case. That period involved two recessions (1929-1933 and 1937-1938), a massive wave of bank failures (1931-1933), continual currency devaluations, and a collapse of world trade.

Now for the all-important question: Is history repeating itself?

Read on for the answer.

Is History Ready to Repeat Itself?

For our purposes, this history shines a light on the combined crises of 2008. Is history now repeating in its own curvilinear way?

The evidence that we are in a recession is powerful. Low unemployment is almost irrelevant because labor force participation is also low. World trade is contracting. Industrial output is declining. Wholesale inventories are high, which means markdowns and lower profit margins are on the way. Interest rates are still going up and inflation is still sapping real wages.

Much of Europe and Japan are already in recession. The China “reopening” is a flop. The stock market has been volatile but the trend is not your friend. Treasury yield curves are steeply inverted, a condition last seen in 2007. The recession part of the Recession+Crisis condition is already here.

What about another global financial crisis? We know that a banking crisis has already begun. Here’s the casualty list from just this month:

• Silvergate Bank – Announced its bankruptcy on March 8
• Silicon Valley Bank – Taken over by the FDIC on March 10
• Signature Bank – Taken over by the FDIC on March 12
• First Republic Bank – $30 billion liquidity rescue by 11 banks on March 16
• Credit Suisse – Swiss government shotgun wedding with UBS on March 19

That’s five bank failures or rescues in eleven days including Credit Suisse, one of the largest banks in the world and the second largest in Switzerland. Combined losses of stockholders and creditors of these institutions exceed $200 billion. Market losses in the banking sector are much greater.

These failures and rescues were accompanied by extraordinary regulatory actions. The FDIC abandoned its $250,000 deposit insurance limit and effectively guaranteed all the depositors in Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, a guarantee of over $200 billion in deposits. This will deplete the FDIC insurance fund and require higher insurance premiums from solvent banks, the cost of which will ultimately be borne by consumers.

The Federal Reserve went further and offered to lend money at par for any government securities tendered as collateral by member banks even if the collateral was worth only 80% or 90% of par. These collateralized loans will be financed with newly printed money, which might exceed $1 trillion.

These actions have thrown the U.S. banking system and bank depositors into utter confusion. Are all bank deposits now insured or just the ones Janet Yellen decides are “systemically important?” What’s the basis for that decision? What about the fact that unrealized losses on U.S. bank portfolios of government securities now exceed $700 billion?

If those losses are realized to provide cash to fleeing depositors, it could wipe out much of the capital of the banking system.

The most important question is: Is the crisis over? Has the Fed done enough to reassure depositors that the system is sound? Has the panic subsided?

The answer is, no. The panic is just getting started.

We base that answer on the history of the two acute financial crises in recent decades — 1998 and 2008. The 1998 crisis reached the acute stage on September 28, 1998, just before the rescue of LTCM. We were hours away from the sequential shutdown of every stock and bond exchange in the world.

But that crisis began in June 1997 with the devaluation of the Thai Baht and massive capital flight from Asia and then Russia. It took fifteen months to go from a serious crisis to an existential threat.

Likewise, the 2008 crisis reached the acute stage on September 15, 2008, with the bankruptcy filing of Lehman Brothers. But that crisis began in the spring of 2007 when HSBC surprised markets with an announcement that mortgage losses had exceeded expectations.

It then continued through the summer of 2007 with the failures of two Bear Stearns high-yield mortgage funds, and the closure of a Société Générale money market fund. The panic then caused the failures of Bear Stearns (March 2008), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (June 2008), and other institutions before reaching Lehman Brothers.

For that matter, the panic continued after Lehman to include AIG, General Electric, the commercial paper market, and General Motors before finally subsiding on March 9, 2009. Starting with the HSBC announcement, the subprime mortgage panic and domino effects lasted twenty-four months from March 2007 to March 2009.

Averaging our two examples (1998, 2008) the average duration of these financial crises is about twenty months. This new crisis is one-month old. It could have a long way to run.

On the other hand, this crisis could reach the acute stage faster. That’s because of technology that makes a bank run move at the speed of light. With an iPhone you can initiate a $1 billion wire transfer from a failing bank while you’re waiting in line at McDonald’s. No need to line up around the block in the rain waiting your turn.

In addition, the regulatory response is faster because they’ve seen this movie before. That begs the question of whether regulators are out of bullets because they’ve already guaranteed almost everything so they don’t have more rabbits to pull out of the hat.

This could be the crisis where the panic moves from the banks to the dollar itself. If savers lose confidence in the Fed (we’re almost there) not only will the banks collapse, but the dollar will collapse also. At that point, the only solution is gold bullion.

Further evidence comes from the fact that no sooner was the Credit Suisse shotgun wedding completed than investors aimed their sights at Deutsche Bank, another perennial weak link in the chain. Who’s next? Barclays? Santander? We don’t know. Neither do regulators or investors. But we do know more failures are coming.

By the way, this is not really a banking crisis even though it plays out in the form of bank failures. What’s going on is a crisis caused by a shortage of Treasury bill collateral to support derivatives positions and shrinking balance sheets as a consequence of the collateral shortage.

Why doesn’t the Treasury just issue, say, $2 trillion of new T-bills and let the primary dealers and Fed underwrite them with as much printed money as needed? One reason is that neither Jay Powell nor Janet Yellen understands what we just described.

The other reason is that we’re up against the X-Date when the Treasury runs out of cash and can’t borrow more because of the debt ceiling. Is Congress ready to raise the debt ceiling? Nope. It’s the usual Democrat versus Republican game of chicken with no resolution in sight.

So, we go from bank runs to a Treasury bill shortage to a debt ceiling standoff in no time. Do regulators and financial journalists understand this? No, they don’t know how to connect the dots. But you get it.

We may not be able to prevent the crisis, but we can see it coming and prepare accordingly to preserve wealth. Step one is to get gold. That will see you through the storm.

END

3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

END

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/

.

END

5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:

END

GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/

1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED UP TO 6.8795

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8795

SHANGHAI CLOSED

HANG SANG CLOSED

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 474.16   PTS OR 1.68 % 

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR: ALL MIXED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  101.328 EURO RISES TO 1.0945 UP  5BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.468 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 131.63 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP  CHINESE YUAN:  DOWN-//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP  FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.2950 ***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4,161*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.284…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.145

3j Gold at $2022.75 silver at: 24.81  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND  78/100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 79.57//

3m oil into the 80 dollar handle for WTI and  84  handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 131.63  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .468% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9047 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9914 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc. 

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.365 UP 3 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.605  UP 1 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  3.88545 UP 5 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.25…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 9 BASIS PTS AT 3.530

end

2.  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

 2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Dip Ahead Of Private Payrolls Data, After Hawkish Surprise Out Of New Zealand

BY TYLER DURDEN

WEDNESDAY, APR 05, 2023 – 03:11 PM

US stock futures edged lower on Wednesday, extending Tuesday’s post-JOLTs declines into a second day ahead of even more employment data including the ADP private payrolls report, as hawkish messages from New Zealand and Australian central banks signaled a prolonged fight against price pressures and revived concerns about a deeper economic slowdown. Gold extended a 13-month high. The two-year Treasury yield rose for the first time in four days and the dollar fluctuated.

Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 were both down by about 0.1% as of 7:30 a.m. in New York. The indexes had dropped on Tuesday following soft labor market data.  In Europe the FTSE100 is up 0.5%, boosted by AstraZeneca gains after positive drug trial results.

Among notable premarket movers, Johnson & Johnson was set for its biggest gain in nearly a year after the drugmaker agreed to pay $8.9 billion to resolve all cancer lawsuits related to its talc-based powders. Nvidia Corp. slid 1.6% in US premarket trading as traders weighed Japan’s decision to join a US alliance to restrict chip-making exports to China. Western Alliance Bancorp dropped 4.8% after the lender’s quarter-end update, with analysts saying that the lack of an explicit deposit balance was frustrating for investors, and the rise in insured deposits also raised questions.Here are other notable premarket movers:

• C3.ai (AI) is poised to extend its losses after plunging 26% on Tuesday — the most ever in a single day — as short-seller Kerrisdale Capital alleged “serious accounting and disclosure issues” at the enterprise-software developer. Shares decline 4% in premarket trading.
• Dlocal (DLO) drops 5.7% after the Uruguay- based payments services company reported earnings per share for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) rises 3.6% after a Wedbush analyst raised the recommendation on the operator of drive-thru beverage shops to outperform from neutral, citing 2023 adjusted Ebitda guidance that is “not only realistic, but conservative.”
• Exxon (XOM) slips 0.3% after the energy producer said that its first-quarter profit took a hit of as much as $1.8 billion due to a slump in oil and gas prices.
• Fluence Energy (FLNC) rises as much as 5% after the renewable energy storage equipment provider was upgraded to buy from neutral at Guggenheim on increased confidence in the company’s competitive position.
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) rises as much as 3% after the drugmaker agreed to pay $8.9 billion to resolve all cancer lawsuits related to its talc-based powders. Analysts note that the amount is lower than expected and the development would be positive for the stock, though questions remained whether the settlement would be approved in court.

US stocks slumped on Tuesday after the latest jobs data yesterday showed a drop in job vacancies, boosting recession fears; economists expect data Wednesday to show private employers added a more modest number of jobs in March. The crucial non-farm payrolls report is due Friday.

Economic data are “pointing toward a potential recession, but the upside might be a pause in interest rates, which would typically be a positive for stocks,” said Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell. “The concern is the Fed might have to sound the retreat before its war on inflation is truly done. This could leave us with the worst of all worlds – the dreaded stagflation where the economy is shrinking but prices are continuing to surge higher.”

With worries about a recession driving bets on lower interest rates, growth stocks and tech names have rallied in recent weeks but UBS Global Wealth Management strategists said they still preferred more defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities as growth valuations remain expensive. They also recommend non-US assets.

Meanwhile, on the inflation-fighting front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised markets with a half-point interest rate hike, twice as much as forecast. Governor Adrian Orr said inflation is too high and that expectations for price increases may also remain elevated despite a weaker economy. Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe pushed back against bets its tightening cycle is ending, saying policymakers still expect a need for higher rates.

“The battle against inflation looks far from won,” said Ivailo Vesselinov, chief strategist at Emso Asset Management Ltd. in London. “Notwithstanding the latest signs of softening economic activity, should disinflation hit a wall later this year, major central banks would struggle to validate the current market pricing for rate cuts.”

European stocks followed US futures and Asian markets lower as investors fret over a stuttering global economy and the prospect of additional monetary tightening. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.2% after hitting its best level in almost four-weeks on Tuesday. The FTSE 100 has outperformed with gains of 0.4%, boosted by AstraZeneca which has rallied after positive drug trial results. Sodexo SA, a provider of catering services, jumped 11% in Paris after announcing plans to spin off its benefits and rewards business. Here are the biggest European movers:

• Iberdrola shares rise as much as 2.3% after Mexico agreed to buy a fleet of natural gas plants and a wind farm for $6 billion from Spain’s biggest power company
• Direct Line bounces as much as 5.9% in early trading, after Citi double-upgraded it to buy from sell, saying the motor-insurance pricing cycle has now bottomed out
• Sodexo shares jump as much as 11% to their highest level in more than three years after the French food services and facilities management company reported a 1H profit beat
• SIG Group shares rise as much as 2.8% as Stifel upgrades the firm to buy from hold, saying it expects consumables packaging firms to deliver above-average growth in 2023
• Nexans falls as much as 9% after an offering of 4.2m shares by holder Invexans priced at €80 apiece, representing a 9.6% discount to last close
• De Nora falls as much as 6.2% after an offering of 11.5m shares by holders Snam, Federico de Nora SpA, Norfin priced at a 7.5% discount to last close
• RS Group shares fall as much as 4.8%, with analysts saying sales growth for the UK industrial and electronic products distributor slowed more than anticipated
• SBB shares slide as much as 5.2% after Nordea lowers its price target on the Swedish real estate company to a Street-low, in note maintaining a sell rating
• Barry Callebaut declines as much as 2% after the Swiss chocolate maker announced the surprise exit of CEO Peter Boone and lowered its full year volume growth guidance

Asian stocks fell, led by a slump in the heavyweight Japanese market, as investors remain concerned about the impact of higher borrowing costs on the world economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.5% with Toyota Motor and Daiichi Sankyo among the biggest drags on the gauge. New Zealand’s equity benchmark erased gains to fall 0.3% while its currency jumped after the central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates by 50 basis points. Markets in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan were shut for a holiday. Japan’s Topix slid 1.9% with the yen’s recent strength also weighing on local shares. The currency has climbed about 5% from its March low against the dollar and a renewed focus on the narrowing gap between US and Japanese yields has opened up the door for further gains, some traders say.

“The US economy itself may be a principal factor for the decline” in Japanese shares, said Ikuo Mitsui, fund manager at Aizawa Securities Group. “The domestic market began the day with a selloff due to concerns about the US and global economies.” The decline in Asian equities came after US peers ended a four-day winning streak amid a selloff in bank shares and softer data on job openings. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said policymakers should move their benchmark rate above 5% this year and hold it at restrictive levels for some time to quell inflation. Stocks in India gained as trading resumed after a local holiday. The nation’s central bank will likely increase borrowing costs for a seventh straight time on Thursday.

Japanese equities fell, following US peers lower, as the yen strengthened and a dip in US job openings fanned investor concerns about the global economy.  The Topix fell 1.9% to 1,983.84 at the close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei declined 1.7% to 27,813.26. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s decline, decreasing 2.4%. Out of 2,160 stocks in the index, 83 rose and 2,048 fell, while 29 were unchanged. “The yen appreciating and the US economy worsening is the most unfavorable pattern for Japanese stocks,” said Kiyoshi Ishigane, chief fund manager at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management. The recent surge in Japanese stocks may have been “too rapid, which made profit-taking more likely,” Ishigane said

India’s key stock indexes were the best performers in Asia Pacific, led by stronger financial services, fast-moving consumer goods, and information technology companies.  The S&P BSE Sensex rose 1% to 59,689.31 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index increased 0.9% to 17,557.05. In contrast, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index ended 0.6% lower, while MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed just 0.2%. The Nifty rose for a fourth session, it’s longest streak since early December. Sub-gauges of consumer staples, IT and financial services companies closed more than 1% higher.  HDFC Bank, up 2.7%, contributed the most to the Sensex’s rally as the lender’s deposit growth in the three-month period ended March surpassed Citigroup’s estimate. HDFC, Larsen & Toubro and ITC were other major contributors to the benchmark index’s gains. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 22 rose and 8 fell.

In rates, treasury futures were lower, following wider losses in core European rates during London morning, erasing a portion of Tuesday’s gains; shorter-dated maturities have taken the brunt of selling in the bond markets with US two-year yields rising 5bps to 3.88% after declining 14 basis points on Tuesday following softer jobs-opening data. Euro-area government bonds also fell, sending the yield on Germany’s two-year note higher by 7 basis points to 2.67%.  Yields are cheaper by up to 5bp across front-end of the curve, flattening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 2bp and 3bp on the day; 10- year yields around 3.34%, unchanged on the day after erasing a move higher in yields, with bunds and gilts underperforming by 2bp and 4bp in the sector.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1% while the Swiss franc is the slight outperformer among the G-10’s while the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone are the weakest. .  Swap contracts downgraded the odds of a quarter-point rate hike at the Fed’s May meeting, easing to around 50% from a peak of 70% on Tuesday

• Kiwi climbed to the highest since mid-February but then surrendered its gain after the RBNZ increased the official cash rate to 5.25% from 4.75%, wrong-footing most economists who had expected a 25 basis point hike
• The euro was little changed against the dollar at 1.0950
• The pound slipped after its first close above $1.25 since June on Monday. Domestic focus is on the announcement of a new member to the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, which the UK Treasury is preparing to name as soon as this week

In commodities, crude futures declined with WTI falling 0.4% to trade near $80.40. Spot gold rises 0.2% to around $2,025.

Bitcoin is modestly firmer within narrow and familiar parameters that have been in play for several weeks; currently, holding at the mid-point of USD 28.08-28.76k boundaries.

Looking at today’s calendar, the US economic data slate includes March ADP employment change (8:15am), February trade balance (8:30am), March S&P Global services PMI (9:45am) and ISM services index (10am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 4,121.00
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 456.44
• MXAP down 0.4% to 162.21
• MXAPJ little changed at 523.55
• Nikkei down 1.7% to 27,813.26
• Topix down 1.9% to 1,983.84
• Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 20,274.59
• Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,312.56
• Sensex up 0.8% to 59,597.67
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,237.21
• Kospi up 0.6% to 2,495.21
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.28%
• Euro little changed at $1.0953
• Brent Futures up 0.5% to $85.37/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.3% to $2,026.78
• U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 101.59

Top Overnight News

• New Zealand surprises markets with large hike of 50bp to 5.25% (economists were anticipating only a 25bp increase) while other central banks slow/stop their tightening cycles. WSJ
• The Australian central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged this week doesn’t mean an end to its tightening cycle, Governor Philip Lowe said, while acknowledging the board is prepared for a slower return of inflation to target than its global counterparts. BBG
• A recent drop in global bond yields has created favorable conditions for the Bank of Japan to scrap its yield curve control program this month, according to a former BOJ executive director in charge of monetary policy. BBG
• French president Emmanuel Macron has landed in Beijing in the latest bid by a European leader to urge China’s Xi Jinping to wield his influence with Vladimir Putin to push for a withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. FT
• Credit Suisse’s integration will take three to four years, excluding winding down the investment bank, UBS Chairman Colm Kelleher said at the bank’s AGM. “Great uncertainty” will remain until the deal closes, and UBS will consider all options for CS’s local business, its vice chairman said. The Swiss banking regulator said it weighed a CS bankruptcy before choosing the UBS route. BBG
• Fed’s Mester says the Funds Rate will need to move a bit higher and remain at an elevated level for an extended period (she was the latest Fed official to push back against the market’s expectation for rate cuts). RTRS
• Contingent convertible bonds issued by banks have rebounded from the market-wide losses inflicted by the terms of Credit Suisse Group AG’s rescue, another sign that stress from the recent financial turmoil is subsiding. The Bloomberg Global CoCo Banking Statistics Index, a dollar-based gauge of such lender debt, rose on Tuesday to its highest since March 16. BBG
• Chicago elected progressive Brandon Johnson in the mayoral runoff over fellow Democrat Paul Vallas. He plans to raise taxes on major firms to boost city revenue. In Wisconsin, a Democratic-backed judge won the high-stakes Supreme Court race, flipping the swing state’s highest court for the first time in 15 years, the AP reported. BBG
• Exxon Mobil has ended a major campaign to find oil in Brazil, after coming up empty-handed on a multibillion-dollar wager that produced a series of disappointing wells, according to people familiar with the matter. WSJ

A More detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed after the negative lead from Wall St where risk assets were pressured as weak JOLTS data stoked growth concerns, with trade also hampered by the closures in the Greater China region.     ASX 200 was rangebound with early support from strength in healthcare, tech and gold-related stocks although gains were later pared amid weakness in the commodity-related sectors and confirmation of a contraction to PMIs. NZX 50 wiped out initial gains and was pressured after the RBNZ delivered a more aggressive than expected rate hike of 50bps and signalled a further rate increase to return inflation to its target. Nikkei 225 underperformed and fell below 28,000 amid broad weakness across sectors and as retailers including index heavyweight Fast Retailing failed to benefit from the recent monthly comparable store sales updates. Foxconn (2317 TT) March sales -21.1% Y/Y, Q1 +3.9% Y/Y; Q2 outlook expects to see aQ/Q and Y/Y decrease due to the seasonal off peak period and a high base from unseasonably strong pull-in in H1-2022.

Top Asian News

• Taiwan President Tsai is to meet with US House Speaker McCarthy today at 10:00PDT (18:00BST/13:00EDT)
• RBNZ raised the OCR by 50bps to 5.25% (exp. 25bps hike), while it stated that the OCR needs to increase and the Committee agreed it must continue to raise the OCR to return inflation to the 1%-3% target and to fulfil its remit. RBNZ Board discussed a 25bp and 50bps hike at this meeting and the Committee expects to see a continued slowing of domestic demand, as well as a moderation in core inflation and inflation expectations with the extent of this moderation to determine the direction of future monetary policy. MPC also agreed the OCR needs to be at a level that will reduce inflation and inflation expectations to within the target range over the medium-term and members observed inflation is still too high and persistent, while they viewed risks to inflation pressure from fiscal policy as skewed to the upside.
• RBA Governor Lowe said the decision to hold rates steady does not imply interest rate rises are over and noted that the board expects that some further tightening of monetary policy may well be needed. Lowe also commented that it was prudent to hold rates steady this month to allow more time to assess the impact of past increases and that this approach is consistent with their practice in earlier interest rate cycles. Furthermore, Lowe said the board is prepared to have a slightly slower return to the inflation target than some other central banks, while he said that he is not 100% certain they will have to hike rates again but added that the balance of risks lean toward further rate rises.

European bourses are mixed but with a modest negative skew overall, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.3%, in another session of sparse newsflow. Sectors are similarly mixed with defensive names faring incrementally better. Stateside, futures reside just below the neutral mark and by extension within Tuesday’s parameters ahead of ISM Services  and Fed speak.

Top European News

• EU nations/lawmakers are reportedly likely to agree a deal on the CHIPS act on April 18th, via Reuters citing sources.
• ECB’s Vujcic says the biggest part of the rate-hiking cycle is behind the ECB; may need further hikes to address core inflation.

FX

• DXY trades on either side of 101.50 and briefly dipped under yesterday’s low, participants now eye ISM Services and US ADP.
• NZD/USD retraces gains following RBNZ’s 50bps rate hike surprise to 5.25%. AUD struggles due to RBA/RBNZ divergence and base metals pullback.
• EUR/USD maintains gains near 1.0950; Eurozone Final PMIs indicate recession likely avoided. GBP/USD trades around 1.2475 after PMI revisions.
• JPY benefits from cautious market sentiment. USD/JPY moves between 131.84 high and 131.31 low, with key support at 131.00 and 130.75.

Fixed Income

• Overall, a comparably contained morning for the fixed complex after a holiday-thinned APAC session ahead of US data and Central Bank speak.
• The modest pressure in core counterparts is perhaps a function of concession from both corporates and sovereign supply this morning alongside hawkish undertones from the RBNZ.
• Specifically, the Bund is at the session low of 135.85 vs the initial 136.56 peak, despite the circa 50-tick decline the benchmark remains an equal distance from Tuesday’s 135.59 trough and thereafter the WTD 135.15 low.
• Stateside, USTs are directionally in-fitting with the above but with magnitudes even more contained.

Commodities

• WTI May and Brent June futures have come off overnight high price action this morning is seemingly a function of risk after futures traded sideways in APAC hours.
• Spot gold edges higher, with price action relatively contained, but above the USD 2,000/oz mark following the move seen in wake of the US JOLTS data yesterday.
• Base metals are mostly lower amid the soured risk tone and slightly firmer Dollar
• Exxon (XOM) has reportedly ended drilling in Brazil after failing to find oil, but hasn’t ruled out other projects in the country, according to WSJ sources.

Geopolitical

• US President Biden and French President Macron held a call on Tuesday in which they discussed China and mentioned a willingness to engage China to accelerate the end of the Ukraine war, according to Reuters.
• Israeli police reported clashes inside the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and Hamas called on Palestinians to march to Jerusalem to defend the Al-Aqsa Mosque, according to AFP News Agency. Furthermore, Saudi and Jordanian Foreign Ministries condemned Israeli for storming the Al-Aqsa Mosque, while it was later reported that Israeli planes conducted a strike on Gaza following rockets from the enclave amid tensions in Al-Aqsa, according to Reuters.
• Iran foiled a drone attack against the ministry of defense complex in Isfahan, via Tasnim; subsequently, “The political and security deputy of the Iranian governor of Isfahan denies what was reported by the Iranian Tasnim Agency of an attempt to launch a drone attack on a compound of the Ministry of Defense in the province”, according to Sky News Arabia.
• US nuclear-capable fighter jets fly over the Korean Peninsula, in drills aimed at deterring N.Korea, Sky News Arabia reports.
• Belarus Air Defense will hold drills near Poland between April 5-7th.

US Event Calendar

• 07:00: March MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 2.9%
• 08:15: March ADP Employment Change, est. 210,000, prior 242,000
• 08:30: Feb. Trade Balance, est. -$68.8b, prior -$68.3b
• 09:45: March S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 53.8, prior 53.8
• 10:00: March ISM Services Index, est. 54.4, prior 55.1
  • Prices Paid, prior 65.6
  • Employment, prior 54.0
  • New Orders, prior 62.6

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After a string of gains for risk assets over recent days, the last 24 hours have seen some steam come out of that rally, with investor nerves growing about the state of the economy once again. Equities lost ground, with US bank stocks leading the declines, and investors moved into sovereign bonds as doubts grew about whether the Fed would still go ahead with any more rate hikes. By the end of the session, that meant yields on 10yr US Treasuries had fallen -7.3bps to 3.339%, which is their lowest closing level since early-September, whilst the S&P 500 snapped a run of 4 consecutive gains to shed -0.58%.

Similar to the day before, the big turning point yesterday occurred following a US data release, with the retracement coming after the US job openings (JOLTS) report came out. That showed the number of job openings fell to 9.931m in February (vs. 10.5m expected), which marked the first time they’ve been beneath 10m since May 2021. The release added to the signs that the Fed’s tightening cycle was increasingly having an effect, and the historic levels of tightness in the labour market were finally beginning to ease. Furthermore, the ratio of job vacancies per unemployed individuals fell to 1.67, the lowest since November 2021, and that’s a measure that Fed Chair Powell himself has cited as something the Fed looks at.

On the back of that data release, investors immediately moved to downplay the chances that the Fed would keep hiking rates. According to futures, the chances of a hike at their next meeting in early May fell back to 47%, having been up to 63% at the close on Monday and as high as 70% in early morning trading yesterday. In the meantime, the rate priced in for their December meeting fell by -17.2bps to 4.130%, its lowest level in over a week. In turn, this sparked a big turnaround for Treasuries, with the 10yr yield having been up by +7.1bps ahead of the release, before turning around to end the day at -7.3bps at 3.339%. For 2yr Treasuries the decline was even more dramatic, with yields ending the day down -13.8bps at 3.825%.

Whilst the JOLTS report was the catalyst for a market shift, there were several details in the report that read in a less dovish light. First, it’s worth remembering that the number of openings and the ratio of vacancies per unemployed individual are still well above their peaks in previous cycles. So we’re talking about a labour market that remains very tight by historic standards. Secondly, the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their jobs ticked back up a tenth in February to 2.6%, and that’s a measure that correlates well with wage growth and hence inflation. The private quits rate was similarly up a tenth to 2.9%.

Despite this, the sense among investors that inflation risks were beginning to ease was given further support from a couple of other sources. One was the ECB’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey for February. That showed inflation expectations at both the 12-month and the 3-year horizon falling to their lowest levels in a year, at 4.6% and 2.4% respectively. At the same time, oil prices stabilised after their big surge the previous day after the OPEC+ decision to cut output, with Brent crude seeing just a +0.01% increase to $84.94/bbl, although overnight it’s begun to tick up again, rising +0.49% to $85.36/bbl.

For equities, the main story was a further decline in bank stocks, with the KBW Banks Index down by -1.97%. All but one of the 22 banks in the index lost ground on the day, with the biggest underperformers including First Republic (-5.55%), KeyCorp (-5.17%), and Comerica (-5.14%). The bank losses were at the forefront of a broader equity decline, which left the S&P 500 down -0.58%. Defensives such as utilities (+0.52%) and telecoms (+0.85%) outperformed, while small-cap stocks were another big underperformer, leaving the Russell 2000 down by -1.81%.

European markets closed before the worst of the US losses, but they still saw an intraday turnaround after the JOLTS that meant the STOXX 600 gave up its intraday peak of +0.69% to close -0.08% lower. It was much the same story among sovereign bonds, with yields on 10yr bunds closing -0.7bps lower, but only after having been as high as +8.9bps higher earlier in the day.

Overnight in Asia, the tone has remained pretty negative, with the Nikkei (-1.62%) seeing a sharp fall, putting it on track for its worst daily performance in over three weeks. That’s in spite of some decent PMI numbers from Japan overnight, with the composite PMI rising to an 8-month high of 52.9 in March, whilst the services PMI rose to its highest since October 2013, at 55.0.

We’ve also had some pretty hawkish developments overnight, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand making a surprise move to hike by a larger-than-expected 50bps overnight, which takes the Official Cash Rate up to 5.25%. Their statement said that “Inflation is still too high and persistent, and employment is beyond its maximum sustainable level”, and the decision has spurred a sharp rise in the New Zealand Dollar overnight, which is up +0.54% against the US Dollar. Alongside that, the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe said in a speech that their decision to keep rates on hold this month “does not imply that interest rate increases are over”, and that “the board expects that some further tightening of monetary policy may well be needed to return inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe.”

Elsewhere in Asia, the tone has actually been a bit more optimistic however, with the KOSPI up +0.48%, whilst the major equity indices in India, Indonesia and Singapore are all higher as well. Markets in China are closed today, and US equity futures are pointing to very modest gains after the previous day’s declines, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.02%.

Here in the UK, yesterday saw sterling close at $1.25, which was its highest level since June 9. The latest gains cement its status as the best-performing G10 currency of 2023 so far, having strengthened by +3.46% against the US Dollar this year. This marks a strong comeback for sterling, which fell to an all-time intraday low of $1.035 after the mini-budget last September. Separately, we did hear from BoE Chief economist Pill in a speech on inflation persistence. He didn’t offer any guidance on the immediate outlook for Bank Rate, but pointed out that “persistent deviations of inflation from target, even if stemming from what are fundamentally a series of transitory inflation shocks, might prompt changes in behaviour that generate more long lasting inflationary dynamics.”

Looking at yesterday’s other data, Euro Area PPI inflation came in at +13.2% in February (vs. +13.3% expected). That’s a 6th consecutive monthly decline from its peak of +43.5% back in August. Otherwise, US factory orders in February contracted by -0.7% (vs. -0.5% expected), and the previous month’s decline was revised to show a larger -2.1% contraction (vs. -1.6% previously).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US ISM services index for March, the ADP’s report of private payrolls for March and the trade balance for February. Elsewhere, we’ll get German factory orders for February, and the global services and composite PMIs for March. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Vujcic, Vasle and Lane, as well as the BoE’s Tenreyro.

2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Mixed trade with regional closures, NZD outperforms post-RBNZ – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

WEDNESDAY, APR 05, 2023 – 08:45 AM

• APAC stocks traded mixed after the negative lead from Wall St with trade also hampered by the closures in the Greater China region.
• RBNZ delivered a more aggressive than expected rate hike of 50bps and signalled a further rate increase to return inflation to its target.
• European equity futures are indicative of a marginally lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2% after the cash market closed up 0.1% on Tuesday.
• FX markets were broadly contained overnight, DXY sits just above 101.50, EUR/USD trades around the 1.0950 mark, NZD leads the majors post-RBNZ.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP, International Trade, ISM Services PMI, Speeches from Fed’s Mester, ECB’s Lane, Supply from UK & Germany.

View the full premarket movers and news report.

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks were pressured with cyclical and value sectors leading the declines after the big dip in JOLTS job openings dimmed labour market and growth expectations. The tumble in February JOLTS comes ahead of the more timely March NFP report on Friday but was enough of a warning to ignite a large Treasury bull-steepener ahead of the BLS report, especially given that markets will be closed, while the data also spurred dovish Fed pricing which now suggests a near-coinflip between a 25bps hike and a pause at the next Fed meeting.
• SPX -0.58% at 4,100, NDX -0.37% at 13,100, DJIA -0.59% at 33,402, RUT -1.81% at 1,769.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed’s Mester (non-voter) said the Fed will need to raise rates above 5% and keep them there for a while, as well as noted that inflation remains too high and that the rate path depends on how much inflation expectations fall. Mester also stated that tightening policy is needed to cool too-hot inflation, while she was very comfortable with the Fed’s recent 25bps hike and doesn’t share the market outlook for cutting rates this year.
• US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the IRS will release its strategic operating plan for spending USD 80bln in new 10-year funding, while she added that IRS investments in ‘fair enforcement’ are expected to reduce deficits by hundreds of billions of dollars over the next decade.
• Former US President Trump gave remarks at Mar-a-Lago after pleading not guilty to charges in New York and suggested that the situation of being charged was election interference.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded mixed after the negative lead from Wall St where risk assets were pressured as weak JOLTS data stoked growth concerns, with trade also hampered by the closures in the Greater China region.
• ASX 200 was rangebound with early support from strength in healthcare, tech and gold-related stocks although gains were later pared amid weakness in the commodity-related sectors and confirmation of a contraction to PMIs.
• NZX 50 wiped out initial gains and was pressured after the RBNZ delivered a more aggressive than expected rate hike of 50bps and signalled a further rate increase to return inflation to its target.
• Nikkei 225 underperformed and fell below 28,000 amid broad weakness across sectors and as retailers including index heavyweight Fast Retailing failed to benefit from the recent monthly comparable store sales updates.
• US equity futures were lacklustre (ES flat) after the recent weak US jobs data and cautious mood in Asia.
• European equity futures are indicative of a marginally lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2% after the cash market closed up 0.1% on Tuesday.

FX

• DXY was rangebound and languished firmly beneath the 102.00 level in the aftermath of the weak JOLTS data which showed job openings declined to their lowest since May 2021 and spurred dovish rate bets with money markets virtually pricing a coin flip between a hike and a pause at the next Fed meeting.
• EUR/USD held on to most of the prior day’s gains at the 1.0900 handle owing to the recent dollar weakness.
• GBP/USD made several failed attempts to breach resistance at 1.2500 after yesterday’s outperformance.
• USD/JPY was contained with the prior day’s headwinds attributed to haven flows and yield differentials.
• Antipodeans were mixed with NZD/USD boosted after the RBNZ’s hawkish rate hike in which it delivered a larger-than-expected rate increase of 50bps and signalled a further rate increase, while AUD/USD was choppy after comments from RBA Governor Lowe who noted that the decision to hold rates steady this month does not imply interest rate rises are over and reiterated that the board expects that some further tightening of monetary policy may well be needed.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures slightly eased back following yesterday’s bull-steepening which was spurred by the fall in job openings and as the Fed rate hike pricing receded.
• Bund futures remained afloat after having benefitted in sympathy with USTs.
• 10yr JGB futures faded some of the prior day’s after-hours gains despite the BoJ’s presence in the market for more than 1.3tln of JGBs and a mild boost of its purchases in 10yr-25yr maturities.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures edged higher with oil prices mildly underpinned by bullish private sector inventory data.
• US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.3mln (exp. -2.3mln), Gasoline -4.0mln (exp. -1.7mln), Distillate -3.7mln (exp. -0.4mln), Cushing -1.0mln.
• White House said the US will continue to work with producers and others to ensure energy markets and lower prices for the American consumer after the OPEC decision.
• Spot gold held on to its recent gains with the precious metal sitting comfortably above USD 2,000/oz.
• Copper futures traded sideways amid the mixed risk appetite and absence of Chinese buyers.
• Codelco copper production fell 14.8% Y/Y in February to 105.4k tonnes, while Escondida mine copper production rose 4% to 72.7k tonnes and Collahuasi copper mine production fell 6% Y/Y to 44.1k tonnes.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin resumed its recent advances and climbed back above the USD 28,500 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Taiwan President Tsai is to meet with US House Speaker McCarthy today at 10:00PDT (18:00BST/13:00EDT)
• RBNZ raised the OCR by 50bps to 5.25% (exp. 25bps hike), while it stated that the OCR needs to increase and the Committee agreed it must continue to raise the OCR to return inflation to the 1%-3% target and to fulfil its remit. RBNZ Board discussed a 25bp and 50bps hike at this meeting and the Committee expects to see a continued slowing of domestic demand, as well as a moderation in core inflation and inflation expectations with the extent of this moderation to determine the direction of future monetary policy. MPC also agreed the OCR needs to be at a level that will reduce inflation and inflation expectations to within the target range over the medium-term and members observed inflation is still too high and persistent, while they viewed risks to inflation pressure from fiscal policy as skewed to the upside.
• RBA Governor Lowe said the decision to hold rates steady does not imply interest rate rises are over and noted that the board expects that some further tightening of monetary policy may well be needed. Lowe also commented that it was prudent to hold rates steady this month to allow more time to assess the impact of past increases and that this approach is consistent with their practice in earlier interest rate cycles. Furthermore, Lowe said the board is prepared to have a slightly slower return to the inflation target than some other central banks, while he said that he is not 100% certain they will have to hike rates again but added that the balance of risks lean toward further rate rises.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese Services PMI (Mar F) 55.0 (Prelim. 54.2)
• Japanese Composite PMI (Mar F) 52.9 (Prelim. 51.9)
• Australian Services PMI (Mar F) 48.6 (Prelim. 48.2)
• Australian Composite PMI (Mar F) 48.5 (Prelim. 48.1)

GEOPOLITICAL

• US President Biden and French President Macron held a call on Tuesday in which they discussed China and mentioned a willingness to engage China to accelerate the end of the Ukraine war, according to Reuters.
• Iran appointed an ambassador to the UAE for the first time in 8 years, according to state media.
• Israeli police reported clashes inside the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and Hamas called on Palestinians to march to Jerusalem to defend the Al-Aqsa Mosque, according to AFP News Agency. Furthermore, Saudi and Jordanian Foreign Ministries condemned Israeli for storming the Al-Aqsa Mosque, while it was later reported that Israeli planes conducted a strike on Gaza following rockets from the enclave amid tensions in Al-Aqsa, according to Reuters.

EU/UK

• BoE approved UBS’s (UBSG SW) takeover of Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) in the UK, according to Reuters.
• ECB’s Centeno said the risk of default in Portugal is low despite the steep rise in ECB interest rates.

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:

WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED  //Hang Sang CLOSED      /The Nikkei closed DOWN 474.16PTS OR 1.68%  //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.19 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.8795 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP  TO 6.8795   /Oil UP TO 80.54 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 84.83 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN/

END

3 CHINA /

CHINA/

end

CHINA

end

4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS

UBS/

OH! oh!!

UBS chair warns of execution risks in the Credit Suisse takeover. Remember they have trillions in derivatives

(zerohedge)

UBS Chair Warns Of ‘Execution Risks’ In Credit Suisse Takeover; Says Integration Will Take Four Years

WEDNESDAY, APR 05, 2023 – 02:45 PM

Integrating Credit Suisse into UBS will take three to four years, presenting considerable risks, according to UBS Chairman Colm Kelleher. On Wednesday, he addressed an audience of over a thousand shareholders in Basel, Switzerland.

Kelleher told the audience that last month’s emergency rescue of Credit Suisse was a “historic day and a day we hoped would never come.” On that day, UBS agreed to buy its rival for 3 billion Swiss francs to prevent a bank failure that could’ve sparked the next financial crisis. 

“You have to understand that there is a huge amount of risk in integrating these businesses,” Kelleher said, adding the integration is expected to take approximately three to four years, excluding the non-core investment bank portfolio of Credit Suisse.

JUST IN: The Credit Suisse takeover is not “an easy deal” and involves “significant execution risks,” says UBS Chairman Colm Kelleher https://t.co/0qivqzkSsL pic.twitter.com/7IbTXFUtVB— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) April 5, 2023

He explained, “Credit Suisse was an icon of the Swiss economy, a bank that played a vital role in the economic development of Switzerland and a global and respected player.” And he said, “Credit Suisse will no longer be an independent company.” 

BREAKING: The merger with Credit Suisse means “a new beginning and huge opportunities,” says Colm Kelleher, UBS Chairman as he opens the bank’s AGM https://t.co/0qivqzkSsL pic.twitter.com/QDli0txBnz— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) April 5, 2023

In a separate presentation, UBS Vice Chairman Lukas Gahwiler mentioned that it was too early to talk about headcount reductions and the future of Credit Suisse’s Swiss business. Multiple reports show that UBS plans to reduce 20-30% of the combined entity’s global workforce. 

On Wednesday, Sergio Ermotti will reassume the role of UBS CEO to oversee the integration. Ermotti, who previously ran UBS for nine years, will succeed Ralph Hamers. 

A brief overview of Ermotti’s background: He was in charge of UBS from 2011 until February 2020, playing a pivotal role in the bank’s resurgence after the 2008 financial crisis. Ermotti is credited with restrategizing the bank’s core focus to less risky businesses, including scaling down investment bank operations while boosting its wealth management unit.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, Credit Suisse Chairman Axel Lehmann apologized to investors for imploding the bank.

GERMANY

5 RUSSIATUEND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

As NATO’s Border With Russia Doubles, Shoigu Confirms Nuke-Capable Missiles Are In Belarus

TUESDAY, APR 04, 2023 – 07:10 PM

In a Tuesday ceremony in Brussels, Finland formally became the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s 31st member, which in effect doubles the Western military alliance’s border with Russia. 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg attended the ceremony with Pekka Haavisto, Finland’s Minister for Foreign Affairs. The Finnish presidency said in a statement: “Finland has today become a member of the defense alliance NATO. The era of military non-alignment in our history has come to an end. A new era begins.”AFP/Getty Images

“Each country maximizes its own security. So does Finland. At the same time, NATO membership strengthens our international position and room for maneuver. As a partner, we have long actively participated in NATO activities. In the future, Finland will make a contribution to NATO’s collective deterrence and defense,” it continued.

The Kremlin on the same day called it an aggravation of the situation and vowed to take countermeasures ensuring its security.  “The Kremlin believes that this is another aggravation of the situation. The expansion of NATO is an infringement on our security and Russia’s national interests,” presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told a briefing.

But he also acknowledged the situation of Ukraine, which the West has long tried to turn into an anti-Russian bulwark, is fundamentally different from that of Finland. 

“The situation with Finland, of course, is radically different from the situation with Ukraine, because, firstly, Finland has never had anti-Russian rhetoric, and we have had no disputes with Finland. With Ukraine, the situation is the opposite and potentially much more dangerous,” Peskov said.Image source: NATO

Taking a more ominous and threatening tone, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in a televised press briefing confirmed that Belarus had receieved aircraft and Iskander missiles capable of delivering tactical nuclear strikes. 

“Several of Belarus ground attack aircraft received the ability to strike at enemy targets with nuclear weapons,” he said. “Besides, Iskander-M operational tactical missile system was handed over to the armed forces of Belarus. It can use both conventional and nuclear missiles.”

Despite teasing it, he didn’t confirm clearly whether or not the missiles transferred to Belarus were actually tipped with nuclear warheads at this point. But the severity of the threat is clear.

END

ISRAEL/GAZA/TEMPLE MOUNT

Israeli Cops Beat Worshippers At Al Aqsa Mosque – Rockets Fly From Gaza – IDF Bombs Strip

BY TYLER DURDEN

WEDNESDAY, APR 05, 2023 – 01:55 PM

Smoldering tensions between Arabs and Israelis burst into warfare over Tuesday night, following a provocative Israeli attack on worshippers at one of Islam’s most sacred places.   

The violence was initiated when Israeli police raided Jerusalem’s Al Aqsa Mosque, brutally beating worshippers. Outrage swept across Palestinian communities, sparking marches, confrontations with Israeli troops, and rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip. The violence spiraled higher, as the Israeli Air Force bombed Gaza.  

The Israeli raid on the Al Aqsa Mosque came during Islam’s holy month of Ramadan. Middle East Eye reports that hundreds of men, women and children were staying overnight to pray, a practice called Itikaf. The Israeli government controls access to Al Aqsa, and prohibits Itikaf there except for the final 10 days of Ramadan. Palestinians have ignored that prohibition, apparently with Israeli acquiescence. 

Not this time. Around 10pm local time, police entered the mosque grounds and began clearing the faithful from exterior courtyards. As that played out peacefully, dozens of others locked themselves inside the Qibli prayer hall in an attempt to dodge eviction. 

An hour later, heavily-equipped police smashed windows of the prayer hall and unleashed a stun gun and tear gas barrage. Storming into the hall, the police began beating worshippers. Video footage appears to show police pummeling worshippers cowering on the floor. 

BREAKING: Israeli police brutally beat Palestinian worshippers inside al Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem during Ramadan. pic.twitter.com/IiFU10qI5c— IMEU (@theIMEU) April 4, 2023

Haaretz reports that the overnight worshippers were motivated in part by Israeli settlers calling for Jews to sacrifice goats at the Al Aqsa mosque on Wednesday, as Passover starts. The mosque is situated on land also revered by Jews, who call it the Temple Mount. The long-standing arrangement on this sensitive land is for Jews to visit but not worship there — and certainly not to sacrifice animals.  

Israeli authorities characterized the worshippers as masked agitators armed with fireworks, sticks and stones. This video appears to confirm the fireworks claim, although even the official police statement says the fireworks and stones flew only after police had launched their attack: 

Al Aqsa mosque is under attack by Israeli occupation troops. Where are human rights organizations and activists?pic.twitter.com/e4ctFTEsuj— Saith Abdullah (@SaithAbdullah99) April 4, 2023

A female worshipper told Middle East Eye that, while women were eventually allowed to leave the prayer hall, the men were brutally beaten and arrested. “Every single one of them was harshly beaten. Every single man,” she said. A witness told Reuters, “They detained people and put the young men face down on the ground while they continued beating them.”

Compounding the provocation to not only Palestinians but the Muslim world, tweeted videos show the interior of the prayer hall was left in a shambles: 

תיעוד שיוצא לפנות בוקר ממסגד אל אקצא. הסרטונים שיוצאים מהמתחם מגבירים את הקריאת לתגובה בזירה הפלסטינית לרבות מרצועת עזה. pic.twitter.com/WDQFSBuwRZ— Jack khoury.جاك خوري (@KhJacki) April 5, 2023

The Saudi Arabian, Egyptian and Jordanian governments condemned the incident. “The storming of the blessed Al-Aqsa Mosque and attacking it and the worshipers is a flagrant violation,” said Jordan’s statement. Jordan’s condemnation carries extra weight, as the kingdom has acted as custodian of Jerusalem’s holy sites for almost a century. 

A spokesperson for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said, “We warn the occupation against crossing red lines at holy sites, which will lead to a big explosion.”

Explosions ensued. Hamas called Israel’s action “an unprecedented crime,” and Gaza militants retaliated with a salvo of around rockets fired at Israel. 

️The moment the rockets were fired from Gaza towards occupied Sderot.

I cannot 100% verify this video as of now. pic.twitter.com/7iu4iT8rJf— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 5, 2023

Palestinian resistance force Hamas successful strike on Sderot in retaliation for attack on Al-Aqsa mosque.

“Era of hit and run is over now, if you hit you will get hit harder” pic.twitter.com/bzydhXMmZn— عباس (@Khaaki_Banda) April 5, 2023

A food factory in Sderot was reportedly struck, without casualties. This widely-circulated video is said to show the impact, with workers scrambling to reach shelter: 

Video: Gaza rocket landed at a factory in Sderot, Southern Israel; No injuries reported pic.twitter.com/X3IQ8Rttla— Local Focus – Security Alerts (@LocalFocus1) April 5, 2023

Video appeared to show Iron Dome defensive missiles neutralizing some of the rockets:

What appears to be two Iron Dome Tamir interceptors launched towards rocket fire from the Gaza Strip a short time ago. pic.twitter.com/q2tA5ze8eL— Joe Truzman (@JoeTruzman) April 5, 2023

According to Reuters, witnesses say Israeli tanks fired shells at Hamas positions near the border fence. The Israeli Air Force struck back with bombs, with this video said to show some of the destruction:  

My beloved #Gaza wakes up to this massive bombing after a brutal night in Al-Aqsa Mosque. Airstrikes in Ramadan is an ongoing trauma for Gazas which recalls painful memories of previous offensives, also took place in Ramadan. pic.twitter.com/wjBAWOU7J7— Ibtihal (@IbtihalGaza) April 5, 2023

Gaza militants appear to have then fired more rockets: 

Iron Dome Tamir interceptors target rockets launched from Gaza toward southern Israel. pic.twitter.com/eTAJl28OPW— Joe Truzman (@JoeTruzman) April 5, 2023

Over the past months, Israel has been rocked by enormous upheaval against the Benjamin Netanyahu government’s proposals to reform the Supreme Court, which prompts a question: Was the Al Aqsa raid intended to spark a violent Palestinian response that distracts and unites Israel’s Jews? 

Or maybe it’s just the latest illustration of the reckless, incendiary ultra-nationalism of Israel’s new far-right government…which threatens to take a toll on Americans and Israelis alike.    

…this is a developing story

END

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE  ISSUES

Robert Hryniak	3:03 PM (51 minutes ago)
to Harvey

Bombshell Vax Analysis Finds $147 Billion In Economic Damage, Tens Of Millions Injured Or Disabled

Bombshell Vax Analysis Finds $147 Billion In Economic Damage, Tens Of Millions Injured Or Disabled

March 31, 2023

Research firm Phinance Technologies released a bombshell vaccine analysis that finds $147 billion in economic damage, and tens of millions injured or disabled due to COVID vaccine.

A new report estimates that 26.6 million people were injured, 1.36 million disabled, and 300,000 excess deaths can be attributed to COVID-19 vaccine damages in 2022 alone, which cost the economy nearly $150 billion.

Research firm Phinance Technologies, founded and operated by former Blackrock portfolio manager Ed Dowd, Yuri Nunes (PhD Physics, MSc Mathematics) and Carlos Alegria (PhD Physics, Finance), split the impact of the vaccines into four broad categories to estimate the human costs associated with the Covid-19 vaccine; no effect or asymptomatic, those who sustained injuries (mild-to-moderate outcome), those who became disabled (severe outcome), and death (extreme outcome). Data on vaccine disabilities and injuries comes directly from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), while the excess death figures are derived from official figures on deaths in the US via two different methods (methodology here).

It’s important to note that people in one category (injured, for example) can move into latter categories of severity – which this analysis does not take into consideration.

“We need to remember that not only are these groupings an attempt to characterize different levels of damage from the inoculations, they are not static and could interact with each other,” reads the report. “For instance, there might be individuals who had no visible effects after vaccination but nonetheless could still be impacted.”

SUBSCRIBE TO GREATGAMEINDIA

END

…GLOBAL ISSUES:

END

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

It’s the vaccine, stupid, it’s the vaccine! ‘Spanish Third-Division Match Suspended After World Cup Star’s Brother Suffers Cardiac Arrest During First Half (VIDEO)’; should we ask if it’s vaccine-

induced myocarditis? Should we? Silent myocarditis that comes alive (electrical conduction across the heart’s myocardium already aberrant) under stress, exertion, flooding scarred heart with adrenalin

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 4

SAVE▷  LISTEN

COVID VACCINE INJURIES .COM @Storiesofinjury

Dragisa Gudelj collapsed on the pitch today in the 11th minute of the first half, and was taken by ambulance after collapsing in Córdoba. The game was suspended shortly after.

12:42 AM ∙ Mar 26, 20232,837Likes

1,603

Retweet
END

———- Forwarded message ———
From: Dr. Paul Alexander from Alexander COVID News<palexander@substack.com>
Date: Tue, Apr 4, 2023 at 9:04 PM
Subject: Are we about to see mRNA technology used in the COVID gene vaccines now used in our food supply? When we know the …
To: <sabioncello@gmail.com>

	Open in app or onlineAre we about to see mRNA technology used in the COVID gene vaccines now used in our food supply? When we know the mRNA reverse transcribes back to DNA? Tom Renz (giant legal mind) says YES!we are now talking about a new level of genetic engineering with unknown effects and no long-term studies, do the potential genetic changes the mRNA injections facilitate pose a long-term risk to humaDR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 5 SAVE▷  LISTEN ‘I have been talking about gene therapy vaccines being introduced into the food supply without providing people informed consent on my Twitter account (@RenzTom) as well as pushing Missouri HB1169 which is our best bet of stopping this happening. This is a nightmare scenario whereby people’s genetics are potentially altered with “factory foods” without them even knowing.

Pregnant women were excluded from Pfizer & Moderna’s legacy COVID mRNA trials so we had NO (zero) safety data yet FDA granted EUA that included pregnant women? Dr. William Makis show many dying now!

Dr. Makis: “I can’t stress this enough – Pfizer and Moderna NEVER tested the safety of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines in pregnant women.” “mothers are being harmed as well. And doctors aren’t warning them.”

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 4

SAVE▷  LISTEN

Key statement:

‘All the COVID-19 mRNA vaccine injuries that are happening now to young women – myocarditis, cardiac arrests, heart attacks, strokes, arterial dissections, aneurysms, can happen to women during pregnancy as well.

Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid

As Dr.Paul Alexander recently reported, Pfizer and Moderna excluded pregnant women from their COVID-19 mRNA vaccine clinical trials. (click here)’

My prior substack and the text:

Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter

How could pregnant women be excluded from the legacy registrational Pfizer & Moderna studies yet EUAs be granted that gave them the mRNA technology injection? Do babies in utero have mRNA, LNP, spike?

Is this why we are getting reports from Dr. Naomi Wolf’s Daily Clout Research Team and Dr. James Thorp as to the potential risk and damage to the baby in utero as well as the pregnant woman? Is this why we are hearing so many negative reports? We need very urgent studies to help unravel this issue for if the mRNA and LNP as well as spike protein from th…

Read more?

VACCINE IMPACT

DISASTER! Food Shortages & High Inflation for Contaminated Food Threaten Nation’s Food Supply

April 4, 2023 7:00 pm

In what is still probably one of the most under-reported breaking news stories in the U.S. today, the situation with the flooding in California, which produces 50% of the nation’s agriculture, is going from bad to worse, while other parts of the nation are still in drought conditions which threaten the nation’s winter wheat crops, it was reported today. And then there was a report published in the LA Times yesterday which revealed that thousands of tons of “human waste” are transported about 8 times a day to Tulare County farmlands to convert into fertilizer, and that “waste” is now threatening to spread to California’s water system, as record levels of snow in the Sierra Mountains start to melt and cause further flooding in the farms of Central California. “Human waste” is a polite term to use for what this “sludge” is that now threatens $billions of food in California farmlands. Here is how Wikipedia defines it: “Human waste (or human excreta) refers to the waste products of the human digestive system, menses, and human metabolism including urine and faeces.” And all of this “human waste” is in ADDITION TO the “waste” produced in Central California from huge dairy and poultry operations, which now also are in danger of spreading into California’s water supplies.

Read More…

.SLAY NEWS

MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK//

Forget BW3: It’s Bretton Woods 2 That Delivered Neo-Feudalism And Soaring Inflation

WEDNESDAY, APR 05, 2023 – 04:45 PM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Yesterday, I said a bomb might be being built under our global dollarised financial system while repeating that ‘Bretton Woods 3’, BW3, a new global system with no dollar, won’t work. (As Malaysia’s PM joins the list of those saying they no longer need US dollars.) Today I add that the current system, ‘Bretton Woods 2’, BW2, and the expectations that lower rates and the US buying everything from everyone while we all sing kumbaya once again, won’t work either.

That’s news for the RBA, who left rates unchanged at 3.60% yesterday despite hot jobs and retail numbers; and the BOE’s Tenyreyro, who called for rate cuts to stop an inflation undershoot while arguing QE was not inflationary, as UK inflation stays high and sticky, and unions win large pay deals in places; and those cheering US JOLTS job openings being back under 10 million for the first time since 2021. But tell it to the Fed’s Mester, who still wants to hike rates further, and keep them there for some time.

To explain why BW2 is done, start with geopolitics. President Macron is off to Beijing with an olive branch, but so is “let’s de-risk” Von der Leyen; Lithuania’s foreign minister just tweeted an undiplomatic broadside; and Italy is reviewing limiting China’s Sinochem influence over Pirelli. Meanwhile, we wait for China’s reaction to Taiwanese President Tsai meeting US House Speaker McCarthy today. Also don’t forget President Biden is already running a US trade policy far more protectionist than his predecessor’s, who is running again on a platform of an open return to mercantilism – which is what much of the rest of the world relies on without declaring it.

Next, look at government debt-to-GDP (too high); household debt-to-GDP (too high); and corporate debt-to-GDP (not high enough outside China due to a lack of capex). Rate cuts are nicer than rate hikes for debtors, but neither they nor QE will push up private investment, as we know. And if we rely more on the government for growth, it will be even more protectionist.

The thought of rate cuts with inflation still high is pushing gold higher (and over $2,000), following oil. And if the last few years have not taught you that life is not a see-saw as Macro 101 peddles, consider this warning from @freightalley, in response to deflation in his US industry: “Trucking is a commodity. But unlike commodities that you can buy at low prices and store for future consumption, the commodity is perishable. You can’t store it. People don’t transport goods unless there is demand on the other end. Just because freight prices are cheap, doesn’t mean that companies will transport more products.“ In short, people won’t deliver stuff if it doesn’t pay them to – so you may get lower prices and no goods.

Meanwhile, back to debt again, also note:

• In 1953, with the US in a Cold War vs. the USSR and China, and a hot war in Korea, bank debt liabilities were 4% of GDP. In 2023, with the US in a Cold War against Russia and China, and a hot war in Ukraine with preparations for a larger one in Asia, bank debt liabilities are 76% of GDP. That’s down from 122% in 2008, but overlooks that shadow banking assets (and so liabilities) have soared, e.g., insurance company assets rose 15ppts to 59% of GDP as of end-2020, and pension fund assets by 76ppts to 170%.
• US mortgage assets rose from 26% of GDP in 1953 to 74% as of 2022, down from 102% in 2009.
• Bank credit to the private non-financial sector only rose from 26% of GDP in 1953 to 51% in 2022, the latter the same as in 1972.

If you believe in BW2, you believe banks, shadow-banks, and mortgage loans can all keep growing as a % of GDP indefinitely. We saw how that ended for mortgages last time, and more broadly, as the Financial Times noted Tuesday, “We’ve moved from financialised capitalism to something more insidious – an asset manager society in which the titans of finance own “essential physical systems and frameworks” – the homes in which we live, the buildings where we work, the power systems that light our cities, and the hospices in which we die.”

Indeed, the logic of yet higher asset prices, implying eventual two-generation mortgages for those who can afford property at all, and lifetime student loans, sounds like neo-feudalism – diverse and inclusive for the asset managers, perhaps, but hardly equal for all.

If BW2 means no ability to fight inflation ‘because assets’, and leads to feudalism, alongside a US murder rate approaching that of medieval Europe and a mortality rate trending the same way, as a former president arraigned for a felony for what is usually a misdemeanour, it’s not an easy sell globally. BW3 might be easier to sell, but it won’t work without the US and the West. That leaves us all in the Deep Dark Woods, with the West and East both pushing for a new status quo.

On which, consider this review of ‘The Triumph of Broken Promises’ by Bartel, who uses new historical evidence to link finance and energy as key connected battlegrounds in the last Cold War, with lessons for today. It argues East and West both suffered stagflation after the 1970’s oil shock, and reached the same conclusion: “decades of promises made and delivered had woven a dense tapestry of contracts and expectations, all premised on high future growth rates. Given that those growth rates had declined, leaders on both sides regretfully observed, the promises built on them had become untenable. The upshot: promises had to be broken.” In the West, this meant Thatcherism/Reaganism, and in the East, perestroika – and only one worked.

Bartel also claims the West’s ability to separate “It’s the economy, stupid” from politics, and free elections granting painful decisions to break promises social legitimacy, gave it the flexibility Marxist-Leninist systems lacked because the Party *was* the economy. Indeed, both sides implemented austerity – but it only made political-economy sense in one. Then, “Thanks to the prior disciplining of the American working class and the Volcker Shock, Reagan’s massive fiscal deficits –a “financial build-up,” in Bartel’s felicitous phrase– “achieved what his foreign policy could not: it soaked up global capital and thereby dried up lending to the Eastern Bloc.”

In 2023’s new Cold War, the US working class can’t be disciplined more and still work. However, promises of Fed Puts for Wall Street could be broken to help repeat the soaking up of global capital and drying up of lending to the Eastern bloc. Of course, such a ‘Volcker 2.0’ means more pain for some – but, proportionately, not the working class this time.

Here the Cold War also comes into play again. The Intercept says, ‘Pentagon tries to cast bank runs as national security threat’, noting under its new Office of Strategic Capital (OSC): “the Pentagon has moved to provide loans, guarantees, and other financial instruments to technology companies it considers crucial to national security – a step beyond the grants and contracts it normally employs. So when SVB threatened to fail in March following a bank run, the defence agency advocated for government intervention to insure the investments. The Pentagon had even scrambled to prepare multiple plans to get cash to affected companies if necessary.”

The OSC only has funding of a paltry $115m for now. Yet more such state support, on top of ending of mark-to-market for loans vs. key US assets, expanded dollar deposit insurance only within the US, and the tax incentives of the Investment Reduction Act, could allow for higher US rates, relative to others, soaking up global capital flows to the Eastern bloc.

Meanwhile, there are two sides to this story. Can China avoid Gorbachev’s errors in the USSR as its own growth slows? It’s read that playbook many times, as well as having looked at what the West has done so wrong for so long. Firewalls are being built even as foreign capital is wooed (and the French woo back). There is no glasnost. Moreover, Beijing just warned its financial sector that a crackdown will deepen and ‘common prosperity’ will channel capital to politically and socially important sector. That’s news to ‘BW2’ Bloomberg, drooling that ‘China Households to Cut Property in $18 Trillion Shift’, which they think will see money flood into financial assets that get them richer quicker than bricks and mortar. Yet as the government indirectly takes a controlling stake in its top speciality steel producer, and gets golden shares in tech and large commodities firms, China Beige Book notes: ”The state isn’t empowering private firms, it’s eating them.”

So, the East and West are mirroring each other again as they both grapple with the same problems, which is only natural given we all live on the same planet and were until recently the same global economy. It remains to be seen who can adapt better to inflation and the challenge presented by the other bloc this time: it may once again come down to whose promises to whom are broken. 

end

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

Change keeps coming day by day with greater ramifications

OK, everything changed Monday. Not only was there a decrease in oil supply coming May 1 1.6 million barrels which will last till the end of this year. Both Russian India agreed to change the market pricing mechanism they use to price oil transactions. They have agreed to adopt the Asia focused Dubai oil price benchmark and have a banned the Europe denominated Brent benchmark. This will make it much easier for countries to buy oriole without using the US dollar. This is huge, in essence what is just happened with these two events is the hegemony of the federal reserve using the USD as a settlement currency and the year-old have been told to piss off. There’s very little West can do about this other than declare war and try and cause a change. Should something like that happen it will fail on its face because the rest of the world is aligned against the US in the west.Lavrov recently wrote a very eloquent article. One thing that he said is of note:“ We no longer have any illusions about converging with Europe, being accepted as part of the “common European home,” or creating a “common space” with the EU. All these declarations made in European capitals have turned out to be a myth and a false-flag operation. The latest developments have clearly shown that the ramified network of mutually beneficial trade, economic and investment ties between Russia and the EU were not a safety net. The EU did not think twice about sacrificing our energy cooperation, which was a pillar of their prosperity. We have seen that the European elites have no independence and always do whatever they are ordered to do in Washington, even if this results in direct damage to their own citizens.” One does see from events that Russia has turned away from Europe and the West and this will not change in the short term. So what he explained in this article was that the mistake that Putin and the Russians made was that they imagined  that the politics of all countries was going to reflect the economic interests of their countries. Just like the BRICS are doing or Germany did when it chose to grow as a Mercantile economy. They simply did not believe that Europe and other countries would support a policy that was directly against their economic interests, like refusing to buy Russian oil and gas, which meant ending the entire German steel industry, and the glass blowing industry, and the fertilizer industry, all of which required gas imports from Russia to be competitive or even exist. This error of assessment was similar to believing the Minsk Accords were honest intentions or that both Merkel and Macron would not lie to buy time to arm Ukraine to fight Russia as an American proxy. In the same way Europeans fail to recognize that America especially controlled by Neocons has interests and not friends. So the sectors of the German economy that have made Germany since WWII, the leading dominant nation of the Europe Union are being wiped out. The only choice of European steel companies and other companies is to move to the United States or China or perhaps India. And this is what BASF is doing, it is going to China, betting on the Global South as a market which represents 85% of the world’s population. So even the plan to gain Germany industry in America is not going well. Clearly there’s going to be a a future upcoming labor crisis in Germany and other European nations. One sees similar policies in Holland and France. None of these countries are acting in their own economic self-interest. And it is clear that their future is shaped by globalist agendas of the likes of the WEF which are in midst of failure. The same failure of judgement exists in not recognizing that a globalist has no friends only interests to be exploited and cast off when no longer relevant. Well, where does that leave the materialist approach to history when you’re doing something like this? It is no surprise that Lavrov went on to say: “The global majority countries, where some 85 percent of the world’s population lives, are not willing to pull chestnuts out of the fire for their former colonial parent states.” There lies the answer to what is presently occurring.Another oil deal has been initiated without the use of the dollar. The India Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) announced that their latest trade deal with Malaysia would be settled in Indian rupees. “This initiative by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is aimed at facilitating the growth of global trade and to support the interests of the global trading community in Indian Rupees (INR),” the formal statement noted.Indian has seized the same opportunity being taken by China as Russia is forced to create the sphere of trade settlement in currencies outside the USD. The RBI is allowing 18 counties to open Vostro accounts and has been attracting new deals in trade and manufacturing. New Delhi and Moscow have strengthened their relationship as India is not imposing sanctions.  The Indian Commerce Ministry said its five-year plan is to “encourage” the use of the rupee on an international scale, while also planning to expand exports $2 trillion by 2030. Trading in rupees will also allow India to save on conversion spreads and limit the country’s dependence on the volatile dollar.Indeed the velocity of trade in USD will decline drastically in the largest dollar value settlement daily and this will impact the value of the USD and reduce hegemony. While fools believe this is an all in gamble they fail to realize the deck is stacked and not in their favor. As they have already lost.Let’s walk through this. Russia is largely settling in Rubles and Rupee and in Yuan. Giving rise for India and China to pursue trade settlements in respective currencies amongst their sphere of influence in trade blocs where such currency is favored giving rise to regional benchmarks of value. This is clear. This with them being part of BRICS it is not lost that soon enough each trading currency will evolve a value point against each other. If one were to then take their respective trade values against each other and say put in a 30-40% gold content value you would have a asset backed currency that can easily be a Stable coin that is used in trade settlement amongst 85% of the worlds population leaving the rest to be under the guise of a Federal Reserve Dollar. Since China and Russia already have the programmed currency using blockchain the final value component is the currencies that go into the basket. It matters not if you toss in currencies of Saudis or a Brazilians as only the neural value changes not the design. This is where 85% of the global population is going and is leaving the Ship of Fools to wallow on the rocks they chose to seek. Since the  Federal Reserve already acts as the Central Bank of Central Banks it becomes clear that the majority of world seeks to distance itself to keep trade and commerce going as Federal Reserve Dollar finds new value to anchor to. The entire Western world will be repriced relative to the rest of the world with America no longer being in a driver’s seat. Real weakness was more than evident when France bolted to do a gas deal in Yuan and Japan was given permission to buy Russian oil above the sanctions cap price. As the alternative was the collapse of Japan which would have sunk the West and the dollar within days. And the longer the Fiasco of a Ukrainian conflict goes the wider and faster the fallout. And should a direct war break out the fallout will be swift. Our world is changing and has changed and will continue to change as a result.

END

.8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS 

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.09458 UP .0005

USA/ YEN 131.64 UP 0.203 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2489 DOWN    0.0009

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3468 UP .0028 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 28 PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED

 Hang Sang CLOSED

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP. 1.19%  // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY MIXED 

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES  MOSTLY MIXED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SANG CLOSED

/SHANGHAI CLOSED

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.19% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 474.16  PTS OR 1.68% 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 2022.90

silver:$24.82

USA dollar index earlyWEDNESDAY morning: 101.28  UP 1  BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY’s close.

WEDNESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 00 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.070% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.467% UP 6 AND 0 //100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.241 DOWN 4 in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.052 DOWN 5  points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.2065  DOWN 5 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0944 DOWN  0.0044 or 44  basis points 

USA/Japan: 131.10 DOWN 0.336 OR YEN UP 34 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2471 DOWN .0028 OR 28 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN  .0005  OR 5 BASIS pts  to 1.3444

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  (CLOSED UP..(6.8795

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. 6.8795

TURKISH LIRA:  19.25 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.467…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 12 in basis points from TUESDAY at  3.313% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield   3.582 DOWN 2 in basis pt

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.7448 % DOWN  9 in basis points.

closing USA dollar index, 101.31 UP 3   in basis points   ON THE DAY/1.00 PM

Your  12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates  THURSDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 28.42 PTS OR  0.37%

German Dax :  CLOSE DOWN  83.30 POINTS OR  0.53%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 28,66 PTS OR .0.39% 

Spain IBEX UP  71.40 POINTS OR 0.78%

Italian MIB: CLOSED  DOWN  159,17  PTS OR  0.59%

WTI Oil price 80.63     12: EST

Brent Oil:  84.76.      12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///  DOWN  TO:  79.59 / ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND   7//100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2065 DOWN 5

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.4580 UP 1 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0900 DOWN  0.0057    OR 57 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2456 DOWN  0042 or  42 basis pts 

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.4455% DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 131.31 DOWN 0,115 //YEN  UP 115 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3453  up  .0013 CDN dollar, down 13 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 80.35

Brent OIL:  84.73

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 3.309% 

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS PTS to 3.570% 

USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 4 PTS AT 3.7922%  

USA dollar index: 101.57 UP 30 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.25

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  79,584  DOWN  0   AND  32/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE:UP 80.30 PTS OR 0.24% 

NASDAQ 100  DOWN 132.98 PTS OR 1.01%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.08 DOWN .08 PTS (0.12)%

GLD: $187,85  UP 0.15 OR 0.01%

SLV/ $22.974 DOWN 0.93 OR 0.13%

end

USA AFFAIRS

1 a)USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

Banks & Big-Tech Breakdown On Bad Data, Fed Flip-Flop Sparks Dovish Dive In Rates

WEDNESDAY, APR 05, 2023 – 11:01 PM

Well that all escalated quickly.

As Goldman’s John Flood noted: “First time in a long time that I can recall bad economic data actually being bad for stocks.”

Just a month ago, the world and his pet rabbit was crowing about soft-landings and strong labor markets (ignoring the constant reminders that the labor market is the ‘last to go’)… and now US macro data is serially surprising to the downside (with ISM Services and ADP today)…

Source: Bloomberg

And sure enough, the labor market (after today’s ADP disappointment and yesterday’s JOLTS print), is tumbling back to reality…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, The Fed’s hawks are quickly turning dovish – Fed’s Mester clearly got the tap on the shoulder overnight…

• Yesterday – MESTER: FED WILL NEED TO GET RATES UP ‘A LITTLE BIT MORE’, SEES FED-FUNDS RATE ABOVE 5%, HOLDING FOR SOME TIME
• Today – MESTER: TOO SOON TO SAY WHETHER FED WILL RAISE RATES IN MAY, HOPING WE DON’T TIGHTEN UNTIL SOMETHING BREAKS

And the market is not waiting for the rest of The Fed to come along for the ride.

As Nomura’s Charlie McElligott noted, the market is betting very aggressively on lower rates by year end as year-end SOFR Skews are soaring (higher price, lower yield)…

Source: Bloomberg

The market is now pricing a terminal rate of around 4.90% in May (40% odds of 25bps hike and done), followed by 4 rate-cuts (back down to 4.00% by year-end)…

Source: Bloomberg

Year-end Fed rate expectations are now back below 4.00% – that is over 112bps below The Fed’s DotPlot…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, before we leave short-term interest-rate land, Powell’s favorite market-based recession signal (the 18m fwd 3m spread to spot 3m yields) hit a new record low today (inverted by 165bps!)…

Source: Bloomberg

Recession called!

The Dow managed to hold on to gains today (thanks to MRK, JNJ, and UNH – so very defensive) while Small Caps (finance-heavy) and Nasdaq (mega-cap tech) both suffered together with the S&P back below 4,100…

0DTE traders were active today but just tracked the market, no lead or fade. However, while VIX ended the day modestly higher (from yesterday’s puke into the close), it was sold down from above 20 intraday…

Source: Bloomberg

Cyclicals have notably lagged since the start of Q2…

Source: Bloomberg

Regional Bank stocks tumbled further today, making new post-SVB collapse lows, with the big banks sliding too (but above post-SVB lows)…

Source: Bloomberg

All eyes were on Western Alliance Bancorp which released data but failed to show its deposits (which spooked a few). Under pressure, around 1300ET, they released the data showing a small drop from $53.6bn at Dec 31 to $47.6bn at Mar 31st (an 11% decline).

Bonds were aggressively bid once again with the whole curve down around 3-4bps (even though the short-end of the curve was whippy today)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y Yield fell to as low as 3.64% today before bouncing back toward 3.80%…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y Yield tumbled to its lowest close since Sept 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, amid all the dovish adjustments, the dollar reversed yesterday’s losses today, but remains lower on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was choppy as liquidity remains very spartan. Bitcoin rallied up to $28,800 before diving to $27,800 and then  bouncing back above $28,000 to end basically unchanged…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices were marginally lower today (despite the major draws) with WTI chopping around between $80 and $81 (holding all the post-OPEC+ gains…

Spot Gold topped $2030 today

Finally, we started this market wrap on data and we’ll end of deposits, as Goldman’s Chris Hussey noted earlier, after pushing ‘pause’ on the March banking crisis, regional banks are creeping back into focus this week with some banks losing another 5%-10% of their market cap amidst renewed scrutiny of deposit flows and just what the combination of higher funding costs and tighter lending standards may mean for profitability.

Today, it was WAL that spooked markets (and showed an 1% drop in its deposits in Q1), but Goldman expects deposit inflows into large banks, as both consumers and corporate treasurers have shifted deposits out of smaller banks and into large cap banks, money funds, and directly into UST. Large and regional bank deposit savings rates have not moved materially since the trough in 3Q21; however, CD rates are close to peak CD rates seen in 2Q19…

Clearly, any efforts at increasing deposit betas could create a moderate headwind for bank profitability, lending, and consequently GDP growth… and implicitly pressure the equity prices of the regional banks who would be hardest hit by the margin pressure.

Put another way, this banking crisis is far from over.i b Morning trading: 

Early morning trading: 

II) USA DATA

ADP Employment Report Confirms Labor Market Weakness In March

WEDNESDAY, APR 05, 2023 – 03:23 PM

Following yesterday’s ugly JOLTS data, and the employment weakness under the surface in the ISM Manufacturing report, expectations were still for just a small slowdown in job additions in March (+210k exp vs +242k in Feb). However, as JOLTS and ISM hinted at, things are changing fast and ADP printed just +145k (a big miss)

Source: Bloomberg

As ADP’s Chief Economist Nela Richardson notes:

“Our March payroll data is one of several signals that the economy is slowing. Employers are pulling back from a year of strong hiring and pay growth, after a three-month plateau, is inching down.”

Manufacturing and Financial Activities (regional banking collapse) dominated the job losses with The Southern region seeing major job losses (as well as medium-sized companies)…

The miss-beat-miss sequence continues as ADP goal-seeks…

Source: Bloomberg

Pay growth decelerated for both job stayers and job changers.

• For job stayers, year-over-year gains fell to 6.9 percent from 7.2 percent in February.
• Pay growth for job changers was 14.2 percent, down from 14.4 percent.

Wage growth in Leisure and Hospitality remained the highest of all the sectors but is slowing dramatically…

But we do note that “Women” (for any definition of the word “women”) are seeing wage gains outpace men’s in every age group…

Finally, as a reminder, it has been the labor market data that has materially supported the ‘strong’ macro argument among market participants, dominating the weakness in ‘soft’ survey and industrial data in recent weeks. But the last week has seen reality starting to set in on that ‘lagging’ labor market data…

Source: Bloomberg

Is the job market now just lagging the rest of the macro data to the downside? Or, is it all too smoothed and ‘adjusted’ to be of any use at all? For sure, while Fed speakers continue to talk about a terminal rate above 5% and holding for a while, the market is absolutely not buying it at all (pricing in a year-end rate 100bps below The Fed’s dotplot)…

Source: Bloomberg

What could prompt The Fed to cut rates 3 times by the end of the year? Recession, Banking Crisis, both?

END

The crooks did not like this; ISM services slump badly in March//export orders collapse

Services are 70% of the GDP

ISM Services Slumps In March As Export Orders Collapse

WEDNESDAY, APR 05, 2023 – 05:08 PM

After ISM Manufacturing’s tumble spooked markets yesterday (along with the JOLTS data), all eyes were hopefully looking towards the Services surveys for some soft-landing narrative reinforcement.

• S&P Global Services PMI disappointed, falling from 53.8 flash to 52.6 final, but still up from February’s 50.6 – and the highest since June 2022
• ISM Services disappointed too, dropping from 55.1 to 51.2 (54.4 exp)

As macro surprise data has risen all year (until this week)…

Source: Bloomberg

So while PMI rose MoM, it fell intra-month, and ISM was ugly – not good.

As the following chart shows, ISM saw declines in both Services and Manufacturing while S&P Global PMI saw both improve…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, on the Services price front, input costs rose at the second-slowest pace since October 2020. Nevertheless, efforts to pass through higher costs to clients resulted in a steep and accelerated increase in selling prices.

However, ISM data shows Services Prices at their lowest since July 2020 and new orders tumbled (as export orders collapsed)…

Source: Bloomberg

ISM Chair Anthony Nieves noted,

“There has been a pullback in the rate of growth for the services sector, attributed mainly to

(1) a cooling off in the new orders growth rate,

(2) an employment environment that varies by industry and

(3) continued improvements in capacity and logistics, a positive impact on supplier performance.

The majority of respondents report a positive outlook on business conditions.”

…but there were plenty of negative comments from respondents too…

• “Slowdown in the economy is leading to reduced expenditure amounts.” [Information]
• “Still experiencing shortages in general labor positions amid demand for higher entry-level wages.” [Educational Services]
• “Although patient volumes and revenues continue to be strong, labor and inflationary pressures have led to higher operating expenses, exceeding revenues and resulting in negative operating margins…” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• “Our company continues to have a cautious approach to the future. Continuing uncertainty regarding inflation and oil and gas regulations.” [Management of Companies & Support Services]
• “There continues to be uncertainty in the market regarding future investments. Interest rate hikes seem to have done little to slow down consumer spending. The likelihood of a mild slowdown in the second half of 2023 or 2024 is still pretty high. Layoffs will continue.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]

There remains a notable divergence between Manufacturing and Services employment data from ISM, but March shows the latter catching down…

Source: Bloomberg

Siân Jones, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

“Business activity across the service sector expanded at a faster pace in March, as a return to new order growth offered a tonic to the US economy, which saw the fastest rise in private sector output since last June.

“Greater service sector demand and increased pressure on capacity spurred another round of job creation, with the rate of employment growth quickening slightly to a six-month high.

“Concerns regarding the impact of inflation and higher interest rates on customer spending remained apparent, however. Optimism at goods producers and service providers dipped since February amid elevated cost pressures. Nonetheless, selling price inflation accelerated again due to more accommodative demand conditions. A sharper rise in charges contrasted with the trend for input prices, which increased at the second slowest pace since October 2020.”

Simply put, improvements in customer spending across the service economy counteracted another fall in manufacturing sales.

The S&P Global US Composite PMI Output Index posted 52.3 in March, up from 50.1 in February (but lower than the 53.3 flash print), to signal a moderate rise in business activity.

The uptick was led by service providers, as manufacturers recorded only a fractional increase in output.

A further marked rise in input costs was reflected in a faster increase in output charges.

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

 USA COVID//

END

SWAMP STORIES

Trump Says “Never Thought It Could Happen In America” After Historic “Fake Case” Arraignment

WEDNESDAY, APR 05, 2023 – 03:20 AM

(Update 1900ET): Following his Tuesday arraignment in New York in front of a “Trump-hating judge,” former President Donald Trump went hard against his enemies in front of a crowd at Mar-a-Lago.

“This fake case was brought only to interfere with the upcoming 2024 presidential election and it should be dropped immediately,” said Trump. “I never thought anything like this could happen in America.”

“It’s an insult to our country as the world is already laughing at us”

Donald Trump LIVE after the indictment charges. pic.twitter.com/FcgtPJAzHi— Mythinformed (@MythinformedMKE) April 5, 2023

“The only crime that I’ve committed is to fearlessly defend our nation from those who seek to destroy it,” said Trump, before going off on Manhattan DA Alan Bragg.

“The criminal is [Alvin Bragg] … he should be prosecuted, or at a minimum, he should resign,” he continued.

DONALD TRUMP: “The only crime that I’ve committed is to fearlessly defend our nation from those who seek to destroy it.”

pic.twitter.com/gAOTgvABuS— ALX  (@alx) April 5, 2023

And in perhaps the best line of the night; “I have a Trump hating judge with a Trump hating wife and family, whose daughter worked for Kamala Harris and now receives money from the Biden/Harris campaign…It’s right out of the old Soviet Union. That’s where we are!“

TRUMP: “I have a Trump hating judge with a Trump hating wife and family, whose daughter worked for Kamala Harris and now receives money from the Biden/Harris campaign…It’s right out of the old Soviet Union. That’s where we are!” pic.twitter.com/XYF0gxdZyW— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) April 5, 2023

Watch Trump’s entire remarks below.

*  *  *

(Update 1900ET): As announced earlier on Tuesday, former President Trump is giving a press conference from his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida following his indictment over hush money allegedly paid to former porn star Stormy Daniels in the runup to the 2016 US election.

Take a shot every time he says ‘witch hunt’, and two shots every time he calls the Manhattan DA ‘Fat Alvin.”

You know you’ve got a bad case when…

John Bolton on Alvin Bragg’s indictment: “This is even weaker than I feared it would be and I think it’s easily subject to being dismissed or a quick acquittal for Trump.”pic.twitter.com/K8Cbw8d6Ru— ALX  (@alx) April 4, 2023

*  *  *

(Update 1730ET): Former President Donald Trump pleaded not guilty on Tuesday to 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the first degree, according to unsealed court records.

The felony charges were announced by Manhattan Judge Juan Merchan (whose daughter worked on the Biden-Harris campaign) – marking the first former president in US history to be criminally charged.

“The evidence will show that [Trump] did so to cover up crimes related to the 2016 election,” said Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who refused to cite the “underlying crimes” related to the books and record counts “because the law does not so require.”

Alvin Bragg, sometimes called “Fat Alvin”, built his case off of copying and pasting the same charge 34 times around “concealing another crime” in order to make it a felony but didn’t include the crime being covered up in the indictment because “the law does not so require” pic.twitter.com/6AOvqRkYv2— ALX  (@alx) April 4, 2023

Trump was arrested at around 1:35 p.m. ET and appeared before Merchan, who barred the media from broadcasting the proceedings. Photographers were allowed to enter the courtroom prior to the proceedings began, before they were told to leave.

CBS‘s Scott MacFarlane described the courtroom “as stuffy, warm, and feeling like an old middle school, not like ornate federal courtrooms.”

Trump now heads back to his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida, where he’ll hold a press conference. Merchan notably warned Trump not to make social media posts that could foment unrest among his supporters, and also expressed concern that Trump could divulge sensitive information online. Trump’s attorneys, however, told reporters that would not happen.

The case is scheduled to continue on December 4th.

Even Mitt Romney thinks this is bullshit.

“I believe President Trump’s character and conduct make him unfit for office. Even so, I believe the New York prosecutor has stretched to reach felony criminal charges in order to fit a political agenda,” said the longtime Trump foe.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) also commented, tweeting: “Alvin Bragg is attempting to interfere in our democratic process by invoking federal law to bring politicized charges against President Trump, admittedly using federal funds, while at the same time arguing that the peoples’ representatives in Congress lack jurisdiction to investigate this farce.“

Stay tuned for Trump’s presser.

*  *  *

Update (1535ET): The Manhattan District Attorney’s office is holding a press conference following the indictment of former President Trump on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records – charges which federal prosecutors declined to pursue.

Watch:

During the presser, Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg was asked about the underlying crime, which isn’t in the indictment. Bragg responded that several laws are at play, including election law 17-152. As the NYT’s Jonah Bromwich notes, “One of the unusual things about this case is the application of a state election law to a federal election and Trump’s lawyers are sure to seize on that in their challenges to the prosecution.”

“True and accurate business records are important everywhere,” said Bragg, adding that they are more important in Manhattan, the financial center of the world.

Of note, the charges against Trump are all class-E felonies, the lowest category of felony offense in New York, which carry a maximum prison sentence of four years. The judge in the case says he will not impose a gag order at this time, but warned Trump not to make social media posts which could ‘foment unrest.’ the Associated Press reports.

And according to the NY Times, “Under New York law, falsifying business records is generally a misdemeanor. But prosecutors can escalate the charge when they believe a person falsified business records in order to commit another crime or hide the committing of a crime.”

The next in-person hearing for Trump has been scheduled for December 4th, per CNN.

Read the indictment below:

For reference:

The relevant New York statutes. pic.twitter.com/0XMNEJmZl9— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) April 4, 2023

*  *  *

Update (1445ET): After surrendering himself for arrest at the courthouse in Manhattan around 1:30 p.m. ET, former President Trump sat for his arraignment, where he pleaded not guilty to 34 felony counts of falsifying business records over his alleged role in hush money payments to two women toward the end of his 2016 presidential campaign.

Former President Donald Trump in court hearing the charges against him. #FPOTUS #Trump pic.twitter.com/A4hhbiPdYJ— Edward Lawrence (@EdwardLawrence) April 4, 2023

Confirmed now that Trump’s felony charges are under the theory that business record fraud was done to coverup campaign finance violation

Key info media is ignoring: the so-called campaign finance fraud charge is one the feds explicitly declined to prosecute him for— Saagar Enjeti (@esaagar) April 4, 2023

The Manhattan DA’s office will hold a press conference after the arraignment.

Meanwhile…

So let’s parse this out: She tries to extort Trump for “hush money”. He pays, which is not a crime. She violates the agreement, going public, and he sues. She looses, and has to pay damages.
But 7 years later, an ambitious and partisan DA, who’s policy is to downgrade felonies…— Barry Jacobsen (@Barry4the44th) April 4, 2023

*  *  *

Update (1346ET): Trump has arrived at the Manhattan courthouse for his arraignment.

BREAKING: Donald Trump arrives at the courthouse to be arraigned.

pic.twitter.com/yKay67pEuG— ALX  (@alx) April 4, 2023

*  *  *

Former President Trump is being arraigned today on a reported 34 felony counts for falsification of business records in connection with a $130,000 payment made to former adult film star Stormy Daniels (real name Stephanie Clifford).

Trump’s arraignment hearing is set to begin at 2:15 p.m. ET. According to Yahoo‘s Michael Isikoff (of Steele Dossier hoax peddling fame), Trump won’t be put in handcuffs, placed in a jail cell, or be subjected to a mugshot, after Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg’s office consulted with the Secret Service and New York City court officials.

The stated reason for handcuffing defendants is on the grounds that the suspect might be a flight risk or a threat to the district attorney or court personnel, neither of which were judged to be relevant to the handling of a former president protected at all times by a phalanx of Secret Service agents. -Yahoo

On Monday afternoon Trump landed at New York’s LaGuardia Airport, after which he spent the night at Trump Tower. His attorneys are expected to immediately file a motion to dismiss. 

According to Trump attorney Joe Tacopina, rumors that the judge in the case will impose a gag order on Trump are false.

“Can’t be. Won’t happen. I don’t believe anyone is even looking for that. That would really set ablaze the passions and the tempers that already have been inflamed by this case. People view this as a political persecution,” he said.

Watch live:

In response to the rumor, Rep Jim Jordan (R-OH) issued a statement saying that the House Judiciary Committee is “deeply concerned” over what would amount to an “unconstitutional gag order.”

On Monday Tacopina noted that Trump is dominating polls among GOP primary contenders, and said that Americans are growing “frustrated” with the case against the former president.

“They are now understanding that the weaponization of the justice system is a real thing. Attempting to gag a United States citizen that is a defendant, not a lawyer, not a litigant but a defendant in the case, especially—that’s a First Amendment violation obviously. It has to be balanced against a right to a fair trial,” he said. “But imagine putting a gag on Donald Trump when he’s the frontrunner for the Republican Party for the presidential office,” Tacopina continued.

“Imagine during the campaign he’s told, you know, ‘I can’t speak about the case.’ When people ask him questions, he has to just say, ‘sorry, I have a gag order.’ Obviously, that’s not going to happen.”

For an extremely cogent analysis from Jonathan Turley via his blog, see below (emphasis ours);

The 2024 presidential campaign technically began months ago with the first announced candidates. Yet April 4 will be “Super Tuesday” for America’s first carceral presidential campaign, with the arrest and arraignment of Donald Trump. With the exception of the socialist (and incarcerated) Eugene Debs in 1920, we have not faced the prospect of a president who could be elected with both a term of office and a term of imprisonment.

The New York indictment of Trump has been widely criticized as politically motivated and legally flawed. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg boasted during his 2021 campaign about being best suited to go after Trump, and he is making good on his boast with a highly dubious bootstrapped legal theory.

The New York indictment will face considerable challenges. Those challenges will likely take some time to resolve, and if this case follows the customary schedule of criminal matters, it still may be pending when Americans go to the polls to select the next president in 2024.

In addition, a Georgia grand jury reportedly has finished its work on other charges against Trump. Weeks ago, Emily Kohrs, the forewoman of that special grand jury, gave a series of bizarre giggling interviews about nailing Trump. It is a mystery, given Kohrs’ apparent confirmation of pending charges, why Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has held back on an indictment.

Although stronger than the Manhattan case, the Georgia case has its own problems but could make it to trial because those problems are largely fact questions generally left to jurors. But it too would likely be pending by Election Day 2024.

The most serious threat among the potential cases is being developed by Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith. His investigation of Trump’s role in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot is unlikely to result in charges and, if it does, is unlikely to survive challenges on First Amendment grounds. His investigation of the Mar-a-Lago classified-documents controversy presents a far more established — and, frankly, easier — route for prosecution. From its earliest filings, the Justice Department maintained there is evidence of obstruction and false statements — claims that it could use to distinguish any prosecution from the unlawful possession of classified material by President Joe Biden or former Vice President Mike Pence.

Smith is under a tight schedule if he wants to charge Trump, though. Since the Justice Department (incorrectly in my view) maintains that a sitting president cannot be indicted, Smith would have to charge and, ideally, try Trump before Election Day. Indeed, the Justice Department strives to avoid any major legal steps that might impact voting near to an election — a period that could stretch back to the late summer of 2024.

What this means is that Trump could face as many as three sets of criminal charges in three different jurisdictions as he campaigns for the presidency. He would likely seek accommodations from courts to delay any trial during the campaign.

Whether or not Trump can delay a trial, much of 2024 will be focused on carceral rather than political issues. Trump has long claimed that Democrats are weaponizing the criminal justice system against him and other Republicans. Bragg has given him the case positive for proving that allegation, especially since Bragg ran for office on his ability to find a criminal charge against Trump.

The question is what happens if any of these efforts succeed.

I previously raised the prospect of an actual indictment in converting the election into a debate for presidential self-pardons. Article II of the Constitution states that a president may “grant reprieves and pardons for offenses against the United States, except in cases of impeachment.” There is no language specifying who may or may not be the subject of a pardon, and presidents have abused the pardon power to protect political allies and even family members.

Numerous legal analysts have argued those constitutional provisions “make no sense if the president could pardon himself.” Yet it seems highly doubtful that courts would agree. Despite the massive gravitational pull of Trump on the legal analysis of many pundits, there is nothing in the Constitution to exclude presidents alone from pardon eligibility. The Supreme Court stated in Schick v. Reed that “the pardoning power is an enumerated power of the Constitution and … its limitations, if any, must be found in the Constitution itself.”

While a newly elected Trump could only pardon himself for the federal crimes, it is the federal case that likely represents the greatest threat to him. Moreover, the two state cases would add to Trump’s narrative of facing ‘political prosecutions’ from a ‘weaponized’ legal system on every level. Trump often campaigns on just such a primal level. He knows that a man chased by a dog can spark public outcry — but a man chased by a pack of dogs can spark public outrage.

It is not simply the election that could take a carceral turn, however.

What would happen if Trump were elected but convicted in either state case? Such a trial would likely occur after the election. Even if courts extended a trial until after the 2024 election, it would be difficult to delay it for four years.

The last time a president faced the threat of a criminal trial was in 1872, when Ulysses S. Grant was arrested for speeding in his horse-drawn carriage in Washington.

I have long maintained that a sitting president can be indicted and tried. Almost 25 years ago, I wrote an academic work, “‘From Pillar to Post’: The Prosecution of Sitting Presidents,” that challenged immunity theories protecting presidents. I do not believe the indictment of a president or former president is a national tragedy. To the contrary, it is the ultimate affirmation that no one is above the law.

However, that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t get weird if Trump loses in court but wins in the election.

If Trump were convicted in a state proceeding, it would not bar him from running — or serving — as president. A state judge could grant probation or an alternative sentence to avoid imprisonment. Moreover, appeals on the issue of incarceration could take years to address a state order conflicting with the performance of a federal function. Once that time was exhausted, a court could order any incarceration to be delayed until after the end of the presidential term, since Trump could not be elected a third time.

We may have to face one of these scenarios. The question is whether voters may not only accept this prospect but some might even invite it. Regardless of how it works out, this election is about to take a carceral turn.

Elections often raise the politics of crime — but in this election, it may be hard to separate the politics from the crime.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at The George Washington University. Follow him on Twitter @JonathanTurley.

END

THE KING REPORT

The King Report April 4, 2023 Issue 6982

Independent View of the News

McDonald’s temporarily shuts US offices, prepares layoff notices: McDonald’s said in an internal email last week to US employees and some international staff that they should work from home from Monday through Wednesday so it can deliver staffing decisions virtually… https://trib.al/5aCAC28   Fed’s Bullard: Oil price jump may make inflation-fighting more difficult https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-bullard-oil-price-jump-may-make-inflation-fighting-more-difficult-5c97333   The White House: Given market uncertainty, we do not believe that OPEC production cuts are prudent, we made that clear to OPEC.   Despite the surprise OPEC+ oil production cut, stocks and bonds soared on buying for the usual Monday rally and start-of-March upward bias.  Much of the bond rally occurred after soft US economic data appeared – particularly the dismal ISM Employment and New Orders components for March.   US Economic Data released on MondayMarch S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 49.2, 49.3 consensus and priorMarch ISM Mfg. 46.3, 47.5 expected, 47.7 priorMarch ISM Prices Paid 49.2, 51.1 expected, 51.3 priorMarch ISM Employment 46.9, 49.1 priorMarch ISM New Orders 44.3, 47.5 consensus, 47 priorFebruary Construction Spending -0.1% m/m, 0.0% expected, Jan revised to +0.4% from -0.1%  GM’s first-quarter sales up 18% (a jump of 27% for fleet sales…) https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gms-first-quarter-sales-up-18-18a09e3e   USMs peaked (132 14/32) at 11:19, 11 minutes before the European close.   ESMs traded in negative territory until, like USMs, they soared on the NYSE open and again when soft US economic was released at 10:00 ET.  ESMs peaked at 10:27 ET, far earlier than USMs.  ESMs then sank until 11:09 ET.  The standard rally for the European close occurred; it ended at 12:19 ET.  ESMs and stocks then performed and A-B-C decline that lasted until 13:53 ET.  The rally to start March then began.   ESMs soared from 4133.00 to4156.25 at 15:56 ET.  The DJIA soared on the robust rally in energy stocks.  The DJTA tumbled on the expected much higher energy costs for transportation.   The morals of the market action early on Monday: 1) Trading schemes still trump fundamentals unless an exceedingly negative development occurs; and 2) there is still way too much liquidity in the system! Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied sharply early on Monday due to start-of-March upward bias. Bonds rallied sharply after disappointing US economic data appeared. The expected late rally to start March appeared.   Negative aspects of previous session Gasoline and oil rallied sharply; gold rallied moderately Fangs and the DJTA declined sharply Equity traders are back in irrational exuberance mode The higher stocks go, the higher the odds of more Fed rate hikes   Ambiguous aspects of previous session When will the Fed remove some of the excess juice in the system?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4116.99 Previous session High/Low: 4127.66; 4098.79   Science journals’ political meddling erodes trust in science, doesn’t change political views: study Findings come amid plummeting U.S. confidence in scientific, medical institutions. https://justthenews.com/nation/science/science-journals-political-meddling-erodes-trust-science-doesnt-affect-political   CNN: Chinese spy balloon was able to transmit information back to Beijing The Chinese spy balloon that transited the US earlier this year was able to capture imagery and collect some signals intelligence from US military sites, a source familiar with the matter tells CNN.     The balloon was able to transmit information back to Beijing in real time, the source said, and the US government still does not know for sure whether the Chinese government could wipe the balloon’s data as it received it. That raises questions about whether there is intelligence the balloon was able to gather that the US still doesn’t know about… it is not much more sophisticated than what Chinese satellites are able to glean as they orbit over similar locations… https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/03/politics/chinese-spy-balloon/index.html   @RNCResearch: Biden, February 16: “We were able to protect sensitive sites against collection.” NBC, today: “Chinese spy balloon that flew across the U.S. was able to gather intelligence from several sensitive American military sites.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1642894547511308290   Unverified Rumor of Interpol Red Notice for Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao Sends BNB, Bitcoin Lower – Binance and its CEO last week were sued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission over “willful evasion” of U.S. laws.  https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/04/03/unverified-rumor-of-interpol-red-notice-for-binance-ceo-changpeng-zhao-sends-bnb-bitcoin-lower/   Yellen (at Yale!): Rising inequality leading to social instability in US (Mostly on Fed promiscuity!)   @MichaelMOTTCM: The NASDAQ cumulative number of stocks making new highs minus new lows continues to make lower lows. https://twitter.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1643033706527961091   Today – The US stock market is following the pattern that appeared after Volcker interrupted his rate hike cycle to save the system from the Hunt Brothers silver fiasco in March 1980 – and after JPMorgan rescued Bear Stearns in March 2008.  We noted this dynamic and related that if the pattern holds, stocks could rally into mid-May.  Of course, months later, the Schiff hits the fan.   When there has been a negative event that has felled stocks, if stocks rallied meaningfully in the afternoon, stocks rallied in the next session.  Traders, who are already exceedingly bullish, will surmise that the market absorbed the OPEC+ production cut surprise very well, so it’s full speed ahead for stocks!   Expected economic data: Feb Factory Orders -0.5% m/m, Ex-Trans 0.0%; Feb Durable Goods -1.0% m/m, Ex-Trans 0.0%; Feb JOLTS Job Openings 10.5m; Fed Gov. Lisa Cook 13:30 ET   ESMs are -2.00; WTI oil is +0.11, and Gasoline is +1.27 at 20:30 ET.   S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4024; 100-day MA: 3977; 150-day MA: 3918; 200-day MA: 3937 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,138; 100-day MA: 33,360; 150-day MA: 32,527; 200-day MA: 32,405   S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3845.89 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3967.18 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4086.62 triggers a sell signal   @RNCResearch: BIDEN: “Next time your kid has to do homework online, you don’t have to pull up in front of a McDonald’s and work off their power. I’m not joking.” *crickets* https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1642978975252205569   Biden: “We need more money to plan for the 2nd pandemic. There’s going to be another pandemic.  We have to think ahead.” https://twitter.com/I_Am_JohnCullen/status/1642600931157245952   @greg_price11: A Manhattan parking garage attendant over the weekend was shot by a thief, took his gun and shot him back and was charged with attempted murder until the DA (Bragg) was publicly shamed into dropping the charges.   Amid Outrage, Bragg Reverses Charging Decision in Apparent Self-Defense Shooting There’s another side to this man’s bizarre and perverse approach to “justice.”  In a rare but striking subset of cases, Bragg seems to go out of his way to slap excessive charges on New Yorkers involved in violent incidents…who defend themselves against criminals…    A Manhattan parking garage attendant who was shot twice while confronting an alleged thief — then wrestled the gun away and opened fire on the suspect — has been charged with attempted murder, police said… An individual who works nearby the garage, which is across from Moynihan Train Station, was also incredulous. “You are kidding. That’s an April Fool Day joke, right?” the worker asked of the charges against Diarra, adding, “How can a hardworking man get arrested for defending himself?”    Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg will not prosecute the parking-garage attendant who shot a suspected thief after getting wounded himself, the DA’s office told The Post on Sunday…. https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2023/04/03/insane-alvin-bragg-justice-strikes-again-n2621444   @bennyjohnson: Soros-backed DA Alvin Bragg wants to criminalize self-defense and make criminals a protected class. This is the same District Attorney trying to put Donald Trump in Jail and prevent him from speaking out in his own defense.   @AmFirebrand: Tucker rips our two-tiered justice system: “The people in charge unleash chaos but if you dare to protect yourself from that chaos you wind up in handcuffs. The name of this system is anarchotyranny. You get state-sponsored anarchy accompanied by political tyranny.” https://twitter.com/AmFirebrand/status/1643046538535399425   House GOP looking to punish politicized prosecutors by stripping them of legal immunity A few years after liberals tried to take away cops’ qualified immunity, GOP now taking aim at same for leftist prosecutors. https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/hldhouse-gop-looking-punish-politicized-prosecutors-taking-away-protections   @alx: FLASHBACK — 11/9/22: Joe Biden when asked about Donald Trump running again: “We have to demonstrate that he will not take power if he does run by making sure he, under the legitimate efforts of the Constitution, does not become the next president again.” https://twitter.com/alx/status/1642539023720669186   Manhattan DA hires former DOJ official who previously investigated Trump Foundation Matthew Colangelo served in the DOJ and the New York attorney general’s office. https://abcnews.go.com/US/manhattan-da-hires-former-doj-official-previously-investigated/story   @mrddmia: Dear House Judiciary Chairman @Jim_Jordan: Subpoena Matthew Colangelo. Matt’s the key link between Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg and the Biden DOJ. In their efforts to politicize and weaponize our federal and state justice systems to get Trump… Colangelo is a lifelong leftwing activist (including NAACP lawyer for 7 years) and senior Democrat political appointee for nearly 15 years: currently appointed to made-up position in Soros-backed Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg’s office (to get Trump…)… acting #3 in Biden Justice Department… senior White House economic advisor to President Obama… Colangelo has never served as a line  prosecutor or defense attorney. He is simply a senior Democrat operative, brought in by Bragg to get Trump.   @MarinaMedvin: Had Trump not declared a Covid country shutdown and panic then Democrats wouldn’t have had a clear path to modifying state election laws to allow super early, super easy mail-in, shady voting. Remember how that all started? Yeah.  Yes, Governors shut down … CITING TRUMP.   @CWBChicago: A Chicago cop suffers 7 gunshot wounds to his leg in the line of duty. A year later, with his medical leave exhausted, CPD puts him in no-pay status, potentially for 8 to 10 months while it decides if he’s eligible for disability. What a city. (Chicago has universal basic income, though,) end The King Report April 5, 2023 Issue 6982Independent View of the NewsJamie Dimon says the banking crisis is not over and will cause ‘repercussions for years to come’ “As I write this letter, the current crisis is not yet over, and even when it is behind us, there will be repercussions from it for years to come,” the longtime CEO said in his annual letter to shareholders on Tuesday.  “But importantly, recent events are nothing like what occurred during the 2008 global financial crisis,” he added… “The recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in the United States and Credit Suisse in Europe, and the related stress in the banking system, underscore that simply satisfying regulatory requirements is not sufficient. Risks are abundant, and managing those risks requires constant and vigilant scrutiny as the world evolves,” Dimon wrote… https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/04/jpmorgans-jamie-dimon-says-banking-crisis-is-not-over-yet.html   Manhattan real estate sales plunge 38%, but cash deals hit all-time record The drop in sales and prices follows a 29% decline in the fourth quarter… the nation’s largest real estate market is correcting after a post-pandemic boom in prices and demand… https://t.co/AmreURRrNo   Saudi crown prince acts to realign Mideast dynamics amid concern over US support Saudi Arabia’s unpredictable crown prince is pushing hard to realign Middle East dynamics, engaging with old foes and orchestrating OPEC oil cuts like the ones on Sunday which took the global market by surprise. Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, known as MbS, has signalled he is prepared to go it alone without the help of the United States to pursue Saudi interests, whether it means re-establishing ties with U.S. adversaries like Iran, or removing supplies from the oil market and angering consumers… https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-crown-prince-acts-realign-mideast-dynamics-amid-concern-over-us-support-2023-04-03/   Banks sank on Tuesday, pulling the general stock market sharply lower.  The DJTA tanked again; bonds and gold rallied sharply.  Editor’s note: if we recall correctly circa 1980 +/- a year to so, Merrill Lynch published research that showed the best trade to handle the uncertainty between having inflation or recession was being long gold and bonds.   ESMs traded modestly negative in a tight range from the start of Nikkei trading until they broke higher at 4:16 ET.  The rally peaked at 6:39 ET, with ESMs hitting 4171.75, +18.00.  Dimon’s warning about banks hit Bloomberg at 6:15 ET.  Bullish traders kept buying; but sellers eventually overwhelmed them.   ESMs fell to 4148.50 at 9:45 ET.  The usual suspects eagerly bought the opening dip on the NYSE.   Feb JOLTS Job Openings fell to 9.931m from 10.563m.  10.5m was consensus.  Bullish pundits averred that the lower job openings mean the Fed cannot hike rates in May.   ESMs jumped 9 handles on the JOLTS report release at 10:00 ET but peaked at 4163.25 by 10:01 ET.  ESMs then tumbled and  hit a bottom of 4115.25 at 12:20 ET.  The ensuing rally ended at 13:33 ET.  ESMs and stocks declined until 14:30 ET.  They then traded sideways until a rally attempt appeared at 15:20 ET.  The modest rally quickly reversed into a retreat.  A final upward manipulation began at 15:48 ET.   Someone pushed ESMs 12 handles higher by the close.  Pundits said stocks sank on the recessionary JOLTS data!   Positive aspects of previous session Gasoline declined moderately A late upward ESM manipulation truncated stock losses   Negative aspects of previous session Bonds and gold rallied sharply; both soared after the NYSE opening Stocks sank after the NYSE open; the DJTA got hammered again   Ambiguous aspects of previous session What does soaring gold and bonds portend?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Down; Last Hour: Up   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4106.87 Previous session High/Low: 4133.13; 4086.87   Democratic senator (Jon Tester, D-Mont) says he will hold Biden admin ‘accountable’ for China gathering intel in spy balloon flight https://t.co/jJjIBOYRcQ   In yesterday’s missive, we erroneously wrote, “Stocks rallied sharply early on Monday due to start-of-March upward bias.”  It should have been start-of April upward bias.   @t1alpha: Breadth is weaker than you may think today. 77% of SPX is down an average of -1.7%.  Some heavy market cap distortion as APPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG are protecting the index from further losses. Watch out if these start to slip.  https://twitter.com/t1alpha/status/1643296730337910784   Fed’s Mester sees ‘somewhat’ higher interest rates ahead https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-mester-sees-somewhat-higher-interest-rates-ahead-63707e2a   Today – Jamie Dimon thwarted the equity bulls on Tuesday.  OPEC+ inhibited equity buying on Monday.  The usual suspects will again try to foment an equity rally.  Absenteeism for Passover on Thursday and Good Friday should commence in the late afternoon.  This will reduce market liquidity.   Expected economic data: March ADP Employment Change 210k; Feb Trade Balance -$68.8B; March S&P Global US Services PMI 53.8, Composite PMI 53.5; March ISM Services Index 54.4   ESMs are +4.00; WTI oil is +0.29, and Gasoline is +2.34 at 21:00 ET.   S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4026; 100-day MA: 3979; 150-day MA: 3918; 200-day MA: 3939 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,133; 100-day MA: 33,363; 150-day MA: 32,536; 200-day MA: 32,421   S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3845.89 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3985.35 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4090.41 triggers a sell signal   Trump pleads not guilty to 34 counts…  of falsifying business records and conspiracy related to his alleged role in hush money payments to two women… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/trump-pleads-not-guilty-34-counts   @greg_price11: All 34 charges in the Trump indictment are “falsifying business records to conceal another crime.”   “To conceal another crime” is how Alvin Bragg was able to elevate it to a felony.  But nowhere in the indictment does it say what that second crime was.   @charliekirk11: AG BARR: “The [indictment] doesn’t have a lot of surprises, except they never really specify what the crime was that was being concealed. It’s very repetitive. It’s what we refer to as stacking. Every document is cited as a felony…it doesn’t get into the theory of the case.” https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1643342950490050560   @greg_price11: Bragg says that the second crime Donald Trump tried to conceal with the hush money payment to Stormy Daniels was “suppressing negative information to help his chances of winning the 2016 election.”   @Techno_Fog: There’s a curious omission in the Donald Trump indictment and statement of facts – The specific federal law Trump violated.  https://twitter.com/Techno_Fog/status/1643347714971783170   There is no law that prohibits “suppressing negative information”.  Every single ‘crime’ in the indictment occurred AFTER Trump was sworn in!  The first ‘crime’ cited is dated February 2017!  Trump was then president; he was not running Trump companies!   @greg_price11: Bragg: “We cannot, and will not normalize serious criminal conduct.” Last year, Alvin Bragg reduced 52% of all felony charges to misdemeanors.   Megyn Kelly @megynkelly: MSNBC legal expert (fmr deputy AG) admits D.A. Bragg’s claims were rejected by Merrick Garland bc they are “relatively trivial and insignificant.” Then scrambles to convince panel Trump is nonetheless terrible.  https://twitter.com/megynkelly/status/1643369163707019265   Liberal legal experts on various MSM outlets asserted that there are no crimes in the indictment.   NY Post’s @mirandadevine: Why are there no blackmail charges against Ms Clifford and her representatives?   @simonateba: The judge did not give a gag order… but told @realDonaldTrump not to be seen or do anything that may be interpreted as inciting violence on social media after the prosecutor showed social media posts of Trump. Next hearing on December 4 in person. (To inhibit Trump’s campaigning)   @townhallcom: Joe Biden LAUGHS as he’s asked if the charges against Trump are “politically divisive.”   https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1643340907238813696   Biden aides cheer for Trump to be 2024 GOP nominee amid indictment: report Biden aides tell Politico that swing voters won’t go back to Trump after abandoning him in 2020, especially after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and Trump’s unprecedented criminal charges https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-aides-cheer-trump-2024-gop-nominee-indictment-report   @Isikoff tweeted at 7:20 PM on Mon, Apr 03, 2023: Exclusive: Trump to be formally arrested and charged with 34 Class E felonies for falsification of business records tomorrow. But he will not be handcuffed, placed in a jail cell or subjected to a mug shot, per a source debriefed on Tuesday’s procedures. (This is a felony leak of grand jury proceedings.) https://t.co/3cqbNJD8VS   Trump rants Bragg should ‘indict himself’ over ‘illegal’ leaks (Felony) of indictment details Falsification of business records can be prosecuted in New York as a misdemeanor, but Bragg’s office raised the charges to Class E felonies on the grounds the conduct was meant to hide another underlying crime… https://t.co/UdFZvPmGLX   Alvin Bragg’s indictment of Donald Trump might open a Pandora’s box for Democrats Let’s take the Clinton Foundation, described by whistleblowers as the largest unprosecuted fraud ever. Bill and Hillary Clinton registered it as a tax-exempt charity, but have used it as their own personal “piggy bank.”…  Other red states that could manufacture indictments against Democrats include Florida and Tennessee, where President Biden’s brother Jimmy Biden has gotten into hot water for allegedly defrauding health care companies (which he has denied)… https://nypost.com/2023/04/03/alvin-braggs-indictment-of-donald-trump-might-open-a-pandoras-box-for-democrats/   Trump gave a stirring and impactful speech on Tuesday night from Mar-a-Lago.  It was delivered in a somber, measured tone; but Trump hammered everyone that he believes has wronged him and Americans.  It was a classic hammer in a velvet glove speech that, we surmise, was intended for swing voters, particularly suburban women.  Trump’s ratings in coming days will be very telling.   The Nashville shooter’s manifesto has still NOT been released.  We all know why.   White House Silent Following Drunk Driving Accident – Canyon News On March 3, news reports surfaced that White House Press Secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre is not facing DUI charges or a ticket after a drunk driving accident that occurred on March 26, 2023. Washington DC Police have refused to release the bodycam footage of the accident. Reports indicate that she rear-ended another vehicle while under the influence of alcohol… (‘No one is above the law.  Pure BS!’)    Witnesses reported that Jean-Pierre was slurring her speech and having difficulty standing up straight. She was not arrested, and no DUI was issued… One commenter indicated that while covering one of the Press Secretary’s news conferences, the press was instructed not to question Karine Jean-Pierre about her alleged drunk driving accident… https://www.canyon-news.com/white-house-silent-following-drunk-driving-accident/168664   Daughter of Judge Overseeing Trump’s Case Worked For ‘Kamala Harris Campaign’, Now Serves as President of Company that Has Biden-Harris Campaign as Client https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/04/daughter-of-judge-overseeing-trumps-case-worked-for-kamala-harris-campaign-now-serves-as-president-for-a-company-that-has-biden-harris-campaign-as-client/   George Soros Donates $1 Million to Wisconsin Democrats Ahead of State Supreme Court Election George Soros and other out-of-state billionaires have donated millions of dollars to Wisconsin Democrats ahead of the upcoming state Supreme Court election — a race which has “2024 consequences,” according to a report… the winner of the race will “determine majority control of the court, with the fate of abortion access, legislative redistricting, voting rights, rules for elections, and other significant issues at stake.”… https://t.co/HPmpTOYHry   @apublictrust: Swiss billionaire Hansjorg Wyss has funneled millions in foreign money through @Eric_Kessler’s @ArabellaAdvisor dark money network to prop up Biden’s agenda and liberal candidates nationwide:  https://t.co/o45Pyn0ap9    Ex-aide to GOP Sens. Lee and Hatch (UT) @mattdizwhitlock: This story is a huge deal. The left is using foreign money to promote liberal candidates and liberal causes — like ending voter ID.   @themarketswork: Lisa Monaco, Biden’s deputy AG, is the real DOJ head. Her confirmation should have been opposed by every single Senate Republican, as they highlighted her RussiaGate role. Instead, Monaco coasted through confirmation w/out a single question on her RussiaGate involvement raised.   @RNCResearch: Jill Biden, Ed.D., says she’s going to “tell Joe” to invite the NCAA women’s basketball championship AND second place teams to the White House because “winners and losers, that’s sportsmanship.”  https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1643263066576961536   (NCAA WBB Champ) LSU’s Angel Reese blasts Jill Biden’s Iowa White House invitation: ‘A joke’ “I know we’ll have the champions come to the White House, we always do… So, we hope LSU will come. But, you know, I’m going to tell Joe I think Iowa should come, too, because they played such a good game.”…  https://t.co/ET13Wnsi7g   @RNCResearch: Jill Biden, Ed.D., was roasted (on CBS Morning of all places) for this take: “Participation trophy for everybody?” “Let’s keep tradition, tradition…a special visit for the winner.” “When you’ve been pandering in politics for so long to Iowa, it’s just a reflex.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1643263321489960962   @greg_price11 : Following my report on Friday on disgraced FBI agent Timothy Thibault’s girlfriend’s tweets suggesting the bureau is going to retaliate against whistleblowers, Rep. @mattgaetz has sent letters to the gf and Twitter demanding they preserve their documents. https://t.co/DSkIec1utd    Here is the link to my story from Friday about Thibault’s gf. He was the agent at the center of covering up the Hunter laptop investigation and her tweets suggested she had inside info the bureau is going after the whistleblowers who exposed him.  https://gregprice.substack.com/p/i-found-disgraced-fbi-agent-timothy   “America, it is said, is suffering from intolerance — it is not. It is suffering from tolerance. Tolerance of right and wrong, truth and error, virtue and evil, Christ and chaos. Our country is not nearly so overrun with the bigoted as it is overrun with the broadminded…Broadmindedness, when it means indifference to right and wrong, eventually ends in a hatred of what is right.” — Bishop Fulton J. Sheen .

The King Report April 3 2023 Issue 6981

Independent View of the News

GREG hUNTER INTERVIEWING BILL HOLTER

Gold Demand Explodes While Dollar Implodes – Bill Holter

By Greg Hunter On April 5, 2023 In Market Analysis2 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

Precious metals expert and financial writer Bill Holter is back updating us on the gold demand explosion and the U.S. dollar implosion.  Holter, who is a precious metals broker from Miles Franklin, has a front row seat to the big jump in demand and prices.  Holter says, “We’ve been jammed since the first of the year, but we have been absolutely jammed since the SVB bank announcement.  What is interesting is we are getting more calls, but for the most part, bigger money.  We are taking multi-million-dollar orders on a daily basis now.  This is different than a few years ago. . . . What is going to happen is demand is going to outstrip supply.  The supply will be wiped out. . . . Ultimately, COMEX and LBMA are going to fail to deliver, and then you will see an absolute moonshot in gold and silver.”

Holter also says the buying power of the dollar is declining before our eyes and explains, “A little over 15 months now, M2 money supply has contracted by about 5%.  This is the first time since the 1930’s where money supply actually contracted.  How is it the dollar is dropping in value versus other fiat currencies?  The dollar is clearly dropping in value versus gold because we are over $2,000 per ounce, and inflation is really not abating.  How is it that inflation is not abating if there are less dollars outstanding by 5%?  You should have seen a decline in prices over the last 6 to 12 months, and we are not seeing that. . . . The result of lower money supply is going to be asset prices declining.  You are going to see inflation of the things you need and deflation of the things you have.”

Holter predicts that the very people who have been suppressing gold and silver prices are going to turn and drive prices up much higher.  Holter says, “They are going to be like rocket fuel. . . . We are going to see a blackout in supply.  When you can’t get it, then what is an ounce of gold going to be worth?  If you can’t get it, what is an ounce of silver going to be worth?”

What is the dollar going to buy in the not-so-distant future?  Holter predicts, “I think the dollar is going to collapse well over 50% in purchasing power.  Another thing is it will not be an acceptable medium for the rest of the world.  The world is turning away from the dollar. . . . Gold is going to break the Fed. . . . When this thing goes, it’s going to be a very, very rapid event.”

There is a lot more in the 47-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter for 4.12.23.

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After the interview: