april 14/2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Editi

GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $38.90, TO $2002.10

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN 51 CENTS AT $25.32

Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE $2004.90

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 25.37

Bitcoin morning price:, $30,816 UP 542 Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $30,249 DOWN 25 dollars

Platinum price closing $1042.35 DOWN $13.30

Palladium price; closing $1490.20 DOWN $30.15

END

I am back to my usual routine.

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2680/00 DOWN 41.34 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2732.50)

BRITISH GOLD: 1614.75 DOWN 13.73 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//1629.84)

EURO GOLD: 1823/22 DOWN 22.37 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH//1860.82)

COMEX DATA EXCHANGE:

COMEX//NOTICES

GOLDMAN 3
104 C MIZUHO 1
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 100
132 C SG AMERICAS 1
323 C HSBC 12
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 66
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 195
523 C INTERACTIVE BRO 2
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 20
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 13
661 C JP MORGAN 257
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
690 C ABN AMRO 3
726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 1
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 25
737 C ADVANTAGE 2
800 C MAREX SPEC 4 14
880 C CITIGROUP 3 4
880 H CITIGROUP 701
905 C ADM 15

DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 04/13/2023 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 04/13/2023
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN T

JPMorgan stopped 257/733 contracts

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GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2023. CONTRACT: 722 NOTICES FOR 72,200 OZ or 2.2457 TONNES

total notices so far: 22,492 contracts for 2,259,200 oz (69.959 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 3 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 15,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 307 for 1,535,000 oz

END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD

/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://////A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.61 TONNES

Silver//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 51 CENTS

AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV

CLOSING INVENTORY: 470.974 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 6668 TO 152,363 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG $0.48 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS ///MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.48). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A MONSTER GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES 8134 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 1,000 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 5.0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 18.330 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 1466 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.055 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE)+ THE 18.33 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 19.975 MILLION OZ/ //// V) HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/.

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –55 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS APRIL. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL:

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 9 days, total 14,516 contracts: OR 72.580 MILLION OZ . (1612 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 72.580 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023: 100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE BUT BELOW LAST MONTH

APRIL 72.580 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 6668 CONTRACTS WITH OUR $0.48 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1466 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL OF 1.055 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE// 15,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP (WHICH INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 5.0 MILLION NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK STANDING 18.33 MILLION OZ, THUS TOTAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN APRIL TOTALS 19.975 MILLION .. WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 8189 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD 3 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 15,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 8917 CONTRACTS TO 492,348 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED 511 CONTRACTS

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 8917 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $31.70 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APR. AT 66.892 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE // PLUS A 86,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP:(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London)YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $31.70 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 12,960 OI CONTRACTS (40.311 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4043 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 492,348

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,960 CONTRACTS WITH 8917 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4043 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,960 CONTRACTS OR 40.311 TONNES.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4043 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (8917 //TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 12,960 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 66.892 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 86,000 OZ//NEW STANDING 72.252 TONNES // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

MAR

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 35,455 CONTRACTS OR 3,645,500 OZ OR 110.28 TONNES IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3939 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 110.28 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 110.28/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.09% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL

JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 110.28 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED 6668 CONTRACTS OI TO 152,363 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022

EFP ISSUANCE 1466 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MAY 1466 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1466 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 6668 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1466 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 8134 CONTRACTS.

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES //40.670 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.48 GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 19.79 PTS OR .60% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 94.33 POINTS OR .46% /The Nikkei closed UP 94.33 PTS OR 0.46% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.53 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 6.8545/OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 6.8539 /Oil UP TO 82.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 86.38 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 8917 CONTRACTS UP TO 492,378 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $31.70 ON THURSDAY,

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 4043 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 4043 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4043 CONTRACTS

WHEN WE HAVE BACKWARDATION, EFP ISSUANCE IS VERY COSTLY BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS THE SCARCITY OF METAL AND IT IS FAR BETTER FOR OUR BANKERS TO PAY OFF INDIVIDUALS THAN RISK INVESTORS ESPECIALLY FROM LONDON STANDING FOR DELIVERY. THE LOWER PRICES IN THE FUTURES MARKET IS A MAGNET FOR OUR LONDONERS SEEKING PHYSICAL METAL. BACKWARDATION ALWAYS EQUAL SCARCITY OF METAL!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 12,960 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4043 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 8917 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $31.70. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (72.252) ( ACTIVE MONTH)

TONNES),

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2003:

JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR: 19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 72.252 tonnes

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $31.70 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 12,960 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 38.721 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL. (66.892 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 86,000 OZ… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $31.70

WE HAD + ADDED 511 CONTRACTS ADDED(REMOVED) TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12,960 CONTRACTS OR 1,296,000 OZ OR 40.311 TONNES.

Estimated gold comex today 201,424 FAIR

final gold volumes/yesterday 210,229 fair

//APRIL 14/ APRIL 2023 CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	128.604 oz 5 kilobars BRINKS .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	NIL OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today	722 notice(s) 72200 OZ 2.2457 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	737 contracts 73700 oz 2.292 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	22,492 notices 2,249,200 OZ 69.959 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	x

i)Dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposit: nil oz

No dealer withdrawals

Customer deposits: 0

total deposits: NIL oz

customer withdrawals: 1

i) Out of BRINKS: 128.604 oz (5 kilobars)

total withdrawals: 128.604 oz

Adjustments; 1

I) OUT OF MANFRA: 1157.456 OZ DEALER TO CUSTOMER

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAR.

For the front month of APRIL we have an oi of 1459 contracts having GAINED 769 contracts. We had 91 contracts served upon yesterday so we GAINED 860 contracts or 86,000 oz were QUEUE JUMPED.

May gained 36 contracts up to 2024.

June GAINED 6181 contracts UP to 414,720 contracts.

We had 722 contracts filed for today representing 72,200 oz

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 722 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 257 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2023. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (22,492 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (APRIL. 1459 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 722 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,322,900 OZ OR 72.252 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of APRIL.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month: No of notices filed so far (22,492 x 100 oz)+ 1459 OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (722)x 100 oz} which equals 2,322,900 oz standing OR 72.262 TONNES in this active delivery month of APRIL..

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 72.262 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o

total pledged gold: 1,703,295.912 OZ 52,97 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 21,948,598.168 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,278,562.952 (381.91 tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,670,035.216 O Z

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,575.267 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 328.93 tonnes//

END

SILVER/COMEX

APRIL 14//2023// THE APRIL 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	937,900.722 oz BRINKS CNT LOOMIS .
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	600,449.980 oz CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)	3 CONTRACT(S) (15,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	22 contracts (110,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	307 Contracts (1,535,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposits: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: oz

We have 0 deposits into the customer account

Total deposits: nil oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 141.738 million oz/274.064 million =51.82% of comex .//dropping fast

Comex withdrawals: 3

i) Out of Brinks 2979.02 oz

ii) Out of CNT 5024.590 oz

iii) Out of Loomis: 929,897.112 oz

Total withdrawals; 937,900.722 oz

adjustments: 1

dealer to customer INT DELAWARE: 53,713.560 oz

the silver comex is in stress!

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 34.063 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 274.064 million oz

CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2023 OI: 25 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 2 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 5 NOTICES FILED ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED 3 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 15,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.

MAY SAW A LOSS OF 1949 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 79,904

JUNE HAD A 15 CONTRACT LOSS TO 111

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 3 for 15,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 108,920 HUGE

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 95,307 STRONG

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 307 x 5,000 oz = 1,535,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL(25) and the number of notices served upon today 3 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL/2023 contract month: 307 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL (25) – number of notices served upon today (3 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the APRIL. contract month equates 1.645 million oz +/ NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY: 5.0 MILLION OZ //NEW TOTALS EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MONTH OF APRIL: 18.33 MILLION OZ// THUS TOTAL SILVER OZ STANDING: 19.975 MILLION OZ//

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.61 TONNES

APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP$31.70 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.08 TONNES

APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.91 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91 TONNES

APRIL 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91

APRIL 5//WITH GOLD UP 0 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $36.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES

APRIL 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES

MARCH 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES

MARCH 30//WITH GOLD UP XX TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.47 TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4,16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 927,23

MARCH 28/WITH GOLD UP $19.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.07 TONNES

MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.97 TONNES

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $47.70 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT 87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.42 TONNES

MARCH 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.4 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55 TONNES

MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES

MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $50.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72 TONNES

MARCH 15/THE IDES OF MARCH: WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 11.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $48.85 TODAY: VERY STRANGE HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 901.42 TONNES

MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.15 TONNES

MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $0.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES

MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES

MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES

MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 930.61 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP HUGELY BY 48 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.389 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ

APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ

APRIL 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 4.643 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ//

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.942 MILLION OZ

APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $1.11 TODAY CRIMINAL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463,942 MILLION OZ

APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.412

MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A MASSIVE 4.779 MILLION OZ DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT465.412 MILLION OZ

MARCH 30/WITH SILVER UP XX CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A DEPOSIT OF 550,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.633 MILLION OZ

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.082

MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.887 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 230,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.255 MILLION OZ

MARCH 23 WITH SILVER UP 62 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 919,000 0z INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.485 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 781,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.566 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 20./WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.401 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.347 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 79 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.748 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.009 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.226 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 643,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.235 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.287 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 477.592 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP $1.35 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 10.WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ…

MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.979 MILLION OZ

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWALOF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.684 MILLION OZ

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.143 MILLION OZ

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ

MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 470.974 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

1:Peter Schiff

2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//

end

END

3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

This is interesting: debt ceiling jitters is causing credit default swaps on the uSA to rise

(London’sFinancialTimes/GATA)

Debt ceiling jitters drive up cost of insuring against U.S. default

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-04-13 16:38Section: Daily Dispatches

By Kate Duguid, Lauren Fedor, and Colby Smith
Financial Times, London
Thursday, April 13, 2023

The cost of buying insurance against a U.S. government default has shot to its highest level in more than a decade, in an early sign of market concerns about the political impasse in Washington over the debt ceiling.

Amid a stalemate between the White House and congressional Republicans on raising the federal borrowing limit, the price of five-year credit default swaps — the most widely traded form of debt insurance — reached its highest

A default on U.S. federal debt — an outcome U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned would lead to “catastrophe” — is still viewed as unlikely.

But investors are moving to protect themselves against the possibility, which could theoretically come as soon as June, or to profit from a protracted game of chicken that upends markets. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/0ffc5460-09b8-4d0f-9f52-66337916cac4

end

For your interest….

Bloomberg columnist admits and contrives a rationale for dollar imperialism

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-04-13 16:15 Section: Daily Dispatches

4:20p ET Thursday, April 13, 2023

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

An opinion column by Tyler Cowen of Bloomberg News today offered an awfully contrived rationale for U.S. dollar imperialism and exploitation throughout the world. But Cowen’s acknowledging that imperialism and exploitation was service enough.

In his column, “What De-Dollarization? The Dollar Rules the World” —

He writes: “Think of ‘a sound and focal dollar’ as a good or service that the U.S. produces, just as China manufactures phones or Japan makes cars. When Americans trade dollars for foreign goods and services, that measures as a U.S. trade deficit, but it can also be seen as America exporting dollars and ‘dollar services.’ The U.S. brands and markets its dollar, just as Zara or the Gap brands and markets clothing.

“So the much-vaunted U.S. trade deficit can be reconceptualized as a form of barter: One service (dollar stability) is being exchanged for another good or service (e.g., whatever America buys from China). In essence, branding and selling dollars so effectively — also known as ‘buying things’ — enables U.S. consumers to have a higher standard of living.”

Forget for a moment that the dollar’s “stability” has been a joke since dollar convertibility into gold was ended in 1971 and especially in the last several years, during which the primary export of the United States has been the inflation that is devastating the world.

Instead, consider whether the world could not devise an impartial currency that did not confer on a single country such an “exorbitant privilege,” to use the long-ago term of a French finance minister — the privilege to exploit the world economically to any extent.

Of course the world once had such an impartial currency — gold.

Yes, to some extent the rest of the world may be getting what it deserves for its complicity with the longstanding U.S. policy of pushing gold outside the world financial system. But at least much of the rest of the world seems to be wising up to its enslavement and reawakening to the old virtues of the monetary metal.

Cowen may be right that the resentment felt by the rest of the world, no matter how justified, will never manage to overthrow the dollar. Even so, he inadvertently has acknowledged the justice of such a change.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

For sure; the Fed has more than a credibility problem

Veronique de Rugy/Creators Syndicate)

Veronique de Rugy: The Fed has more than a credibility problem

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-04-13 12:32Section: Daily Dispatches

By Veronique de Rugy
Creators Syndicate, Hermosa Beach, California
Thursday, April 13, 2023

I have heard some people say that the Federal Reserve has a credibility problem. The agency missed the biggest inflation spike since the 1980s, was slow to start rolling back pandemic policies, and failed to spot the risks that some banks, such as Silicon Valley Bank, were facing. Instead of instilling confidence and stability, the Fed’s policy communication has at times been so unclear and confused that it has only served to exacerbate market volatility.

Credibility is a big enough problem, but unfortunately the Fed’s issues go beyond that. The Fed as an institution, along with its policies, seem to be a main source of the economic instability America faces. In fact, David Stockman, budget director under President Ronald Reagan, calls the Fed an “SDI” — a Systematically Dangerous Institution.

A responsible political class would pay more attention to an organization’s failures and significantly reform it. Instead politicians will likely do what they have done in the past: give the Fed even more power to regulate the economy in ways that will only cause further harm. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.creators.com/read/veronique-de-rugy/04/23/the-fed-has-more-than-a-credibility-problem

end

Lula, the member of Klaus Schwab’s WEF calls for the end of the dollar’s trade dominance

(London’s FinancialTimes)

Brazil’s Lula calls for end to dollar trade dominance

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-04-13 11:48Section: Daily Dispatches

By Joe Leahy and Hudson Lockett
Financial Times, London
Thursday, April 13, 2023

Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has called on developing countries to work toward replacing the U.S. dollar with their own currencies in international trade, lending his voice to Beijing’s efforts to end the greenback’s dominance of global commerce.

Kicking off his first state visit to China since taking office in January, Lula called for the countries of the so-called BRICS group of nations — which in addition to Brazil and China includes Russia, India, and South Africa — to come up with their own alternative currency for use in trade

“Every night I ask myself why all countries have to base their trade on the dollar,” Lula said in an impassioned speech at the New Development Bank in Shanghai, known as the “BRICS bank.”

“Why can’t we do trade based on our own currencies?” he added, drawing loud applause from the audience of Brazilian and Chinese dignitaries. “Who was it who decided that the dollar was the currency after the disappearance of the gold standard?” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/669260a5-82a5-4e7a-9bbf-4f41c54a6143

end

Your weekend reading material

(Alasdair Macleod)

Alasdair Macleod: It’s all hotting up

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-04-13 11:32Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, April 13, 2023

Increasing numbers of national governments are abandoning the U.S. sphere of influence. Opportunities from trade with Asia compare favourably with rising currency and banking risks in a dollar-centric world.

Against an imploding banking system in long-established financial markets, China’s renminbi looks like a safe haven. Thanks to a savings-driven economy, China’s consumer price inflation remained very low, when those of the western alliance soared.

Now we face a credit crunch, as banks struggle to reduce their operational gearing, which has become uncomfortably high. Consequently, borrowing rates will be driven higher, taking interest rate control out of central banking hands. Higher interest rates and therefore bond yields due to a credit crunch will escalate the banking crisis, which is only in its early stages.

Consequently, central bank credit will be inflated to prevent the commercial banking network from collapsing and to fund rising government budget deficits. It is the prospect and realisation of these conditions that will lead ultimately to a collapse of fiat currency values, and foreign holders of dollars, euros, and sterling are only beginning to understand the danger. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/its-all-hotting-up?gmrefcode=gata

end

4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/

Episode 118

1 day ago

100+ nations to simultaneously pull out of the dollar system? Feat. Andrew Schectman

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire sits down with the founder of Miles Franklin Investments, Andrew Schectman, to address the exacerbating levels of global financial anxiety, as people flock to gold, seeking alternatives to traditional banking.

The two precious metals informers explore the dynamic expansion of BRICS and SCO nations as they continuously form new relationships, united in a common goal of economic betterment away from the US dollar hegemony.

100+ nations to simultaneously pull out of the dollar system? Feat. Andrew Schectman

-END-

END

5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:

GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/

1. YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//,FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 6.8545

OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.8539

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 19.79 POINTS OR .60%

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 94,33 PTS OR .46%

2. Nikkei closed UP 94,33 PTS OR 0.46%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 100.72 EURO RISES TO 1.1052 UP 0 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.456Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 132.67 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morninG

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: UP// OFF- SHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.3715***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.219*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.409…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.241

3j Gold at $2033.00 silver at: 25.98 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 13 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 81.53//

3m oil into the 82 dollar handle for WTI and 86 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 132.67 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .456% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8891 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9827 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.464 UP 1 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.714 UP 3 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.9916 UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.37…

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 0 BASIS PTS AT 3.6180

end

2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING

Futures Flat As Tumbling Boeing Shares Offset Stellar JPM Earnings

FRIDAY, APR 14, 2023 – 08:07 AM

US stock futures were flat in yet another listless overnight session after Thursday’s bear-vexing rally as traders braced for a slew of earnings from major banks like JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup Inc. Contracts on the S&P 500 dipped 0.1% by 7:45am ET largely as a result of a big drop in Boeing shares, partially offset by solid JPM gains following stellar earnings, while those on the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.5% after the underlying index added 2% in the last session.

In premarket trading, JPMorgan (JPM) jumps 5.9% after the bank boosted its net interest income forecast for the full year to $81 billion from about $73 billion. This was more than offset by a tumble in Boeing which fell after the aerospace company paused deliveries of some 737 Max jets over a parts issue, about which it was notified by Spirit AeroSystems a day earlier. Analysts said that the news was negative for Boeing and could result in a slowdown of deliveries, as well as impacting the broader sector. Boeing (BA) shares fall as much as 6.4%. Here are the other notable premarket movers:

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks gain as the Bitcoin rally gains momentum, with the digital token holding above the $30,000 level amid hopes that the Fed could eventually pause interest-rate hikes.
Lucid (LCID) fell 6.3% on Friday after the EV maker reported preliminary-vehicle deliveries for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
PNC Financial (PNC) rises as much as 8.2% after the firm reported earnings per share for the first quarter that were higher than consensus analyst estimates and reported deposits at end-period for that met the average analyst estimate.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) falls 3.5% after Piper Sandler downgraded the EV maker’s stock to neutral from overweight, saying the company’s capital intensive model may discourage investors in the current macro environment.
A longtime bull on Rivian Automotive Inc. (RIVN) slashed his price target on the stock by three quarters, giving up on the electric-vehicle maker after a 92% wipeout in its shares.
Tesla (TSLA) shares drop as much as 1.8% after the electric-car maker said it will cut prices for new Model 3 and Model Y vehicles by as much as 5% in Singapore.
VF Corp. (VFC) gains 5.4% after Goldman Sachs upgrades the apparel and footwear company to buy from sell, saying strategic actions are starting to improve the profitability outlook.
ViewRay (VRAY) falls as much as 7.1% after a pair of analysts downgrade their ratings on the medical-equipment company following its annual outlook cut and announcement of its plan to explore strategic alternatives. The stock had plunged 39% on Thursday in the biggest drop since August 2019.
Wells Fargo (WFC) gains 3.1% after the firm reported net interest income and earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.

US equities have climbed this week ahead of the lenders’ results as traders assessed a key measure of US inflation, which showed hints of moderating in March, and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting. Investors will parse earnings statements for signs of an economic slowdown, while gauging how companies have managed to cope with headwinds like the banking system stress and higher rates.

“It’s going to be the outlook that investors are going to be fixated on,” Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said on Bloomberg Television. “Since the banking scare erupted, there are so many questions which have now been thrown in to the mix — not least a forecast of a mild recession from the Fed, but also this deposit flight.”

BofA’s Hartnett Prefers Global Stocks to Tech-Heavy US Market Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett said investors should avoid US stocks as expectations of a recession have become universal, specifically tech amid the backdrop of higher rates. For earnings, he said all lead indicators point to a deeper profit recession than expected

“What I see is that the market is seeing bad news as good news, so any sign of slowdown in the economy is expected to bring down inflation and force central banks to cut rates. That’s the narrative at the moment and hence the positive sentiment,” said Flavio Carpenzano, investment director at Capital Group in London.

“Investors will remain wary of any indication that the regional banking turmoil has translated into materially tighter lending standards throughout the system,” BMO strategists Ian Lyngen and Benjamin Jeffery wrote in a note.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase and Well Fargo kicked off a busy earnings season. JPMorgan jumped about 8% in the premarket after reporting first-quarter deposits unexpectedly rose. Wells Fargo fell about 1% in the premarket after the lender increased provisions for credit losses for commercial real estate loans among others.

European stocks look set to finish the week on the front foot amid speculation that the global monetary tightening cycle is reaching its conclusion. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.4% and on course for a fifth consecutive gain with real estate, healthcare and food & beverages the strongest performing sectors. However, US equity futures are in the red with bank earnings in focus. Here are the most notable European movers:

Hermes gained as much as 2% to a record after its quarterly sales leaped past estimates on the back of strong global demand, notably in China.
888 jumped as much as 17% after the British gambling company reported earnings and gave Middle East revenue guidance ahead of expectations after finishing an internal investigation on money-laundering claims.
Comet Holding fell as much as 6.4%, the biggest intraday drop since November, after the Swiss tech firm’s 2023 sales guidance came in well below expectations.
Alstom slid as much as 8.5% after Deutsche Bank downgraded to hold, saying the departure of the French train maker’s CFO brings additional uncertainties regarding financial targets and potential disruption in communications with Moody’s.
Philips fell as much as 4.5% after the US drug regulator said the number of replacement and remediated devices that have been shipped to consumers in the US as a result of Philips’ sleep apnea device recall is considerably less than number of ‘new replacement devices and repair kits’ listed on the Dutch company’s website.
National Grid declined as much as 1.5% as in- line results were overshadowed by the introduction of full expensing for capex, per the UK Spring Budget, which points to a broadly neutral cash and economic position for the British utility, according to Jefferies.
Dechra Pharmaceuticals jumped as much as 40% to 3,882p after as the global veterinary supplies company confirmed talks with Swedish investment firm EQT about a possible all-cash takeover at a price of 4,070p/share.
Superdry plunged as much as 20%, hitting the lowest since March 2020, as the clothing brand pulled full-year earnings guidance after retail sales for the first two months of the year failed to meet expectations. Additionally, the company said capital raise options were being considered.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks reached the highest level in almost two months, as a slew of weaker-than-expected US economic data fueled bets that the Federal Reserve may soon pause its interest rate hikes. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.6% Friday, lifted by technology and industrial shares. Most markets in the region advanced, with Japanese stocks leading gains after Fast Retailing climbed the most in two years on higher profit guidance. India and Thailand were closed for holidays. A surprise decline in US producer prices and higher-than-expected jobless claims have anchored rate expectations, adding to earlier data that headline consumer prices were slowing. That, along with a retreat in the US dollar, are boding well for emerging market assets in Asia. Singapore’s central bank surprised the market by keeping its monetary policy settings unchanged, joining other central banks in Canada and Australia in pausing monetary tightening given rising global recession risks and ebbing inflation.

The Asian stock benchmark headed for a 1.6% gain this week, as the prospect of a peak in interest rates helped offset worries about the global economic outlook. China’s upbeat trade data also served to bolster investor confidence on the nation’s economic recovery. “Earnings growth for the region as a whole is really going to accelerate into 2024 and the market will start pricing that as we get deeper into the second half,” said Timothy Moe, chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, in a Bloomberg TV interview. He added that returns in China may be better than the rest of the region given “a much better near-term recovery.”

Japanese stocks were up for a sixth day, as Warren Buffett continues to ramp up excitement in the country’s shares and as weaker-than-expected US economic data boosted expectations of a cooling rate hiking cycle. The Topix Index rose 0.5% to 2,018.72 as of market close Tokyo time, while the Nikkei advanced 1.2% to 28,493.47. Earlier this week, Buffett, the billionaire investor, said he’s mulling a boost to his stock investments in Japan shortly after Berkshire Hathaway Inc. kicked off a yen bond sale. Sony Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix Index gain, increasing 1.8%. Out of 2,158 stocks in the index, 1,404 rose and 645 fell, while 109 were unchanged. “Buffett’s comments continue to provide considerable tailwind to Japanese stocks, which are undervalued in terms of valuations, and are attracting more attention,” said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.5% to close at 7,361.60, its highest level in five weeks, boosted by a rebound in mining shares and banks. The benchmark gained 2% for the week, the third consecutive weekly advance. The rise comes as a gauge of global stocks headed for its highest close in 10 weeks on speculation the Federal Reserve and other central banks are nearing the end of their hiking cycles. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.4% to 11,880.57.

In FX, a gauge of the dollar extended its descent on Friday, heading for a fifth straight week of losses, its longest losing streak since 2020 on increasing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year. The Swiss Franc hovered around a two-year high and the euro traded at the strongest in one year; the Swedish krona was also among the best G10 performers. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index eased 0.1%, helped by continued buying of the euro by macro and overlay funds to top the 12- month high hit in London on Thursday, according to an Asia-based FX trader. The index is down 0.8% this week, marking the longest weekly losing streak since July 2020. “We expect each condition for dollar weakness to fall into place in the weeks ahead,” Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale wrote in a note

USD/CHF fell as much as 0.3% to 0.8871, near the 0.8860 two-year low reached on Thursday. The rally on the Swiss franc has propelled it past the pound as the best performing G-10 currency this year
EUR/USD rose as much as 0.3% to 1.1076, the highest since April 2022
USD/CAD fell as much as 0.2% to 1.3317, the lowest in a month. o “Our preferred way to express dollar weakness is probably through USD/CAD, because that’s where long USD positioning is most evident,” SocGen’s Juckes wrote
USD/JPY dropped 0.1% to 132.48; yen is the only G-10 currency to weaken against the dollar this week. USD/JPY two-week implied volatility is signaling that there is a 72% probability spot will trade in a 129.18-135.53 range during this period based off spot trading at 132.57; that means the pair would remain within the trading range it has been in since mid-March
USD/SEK slipped as much as 0.4% to 10.2366 even as Swedish inflation slowed for the first time in more than a year. The Riksbank has said it expects to raise the key rate from 3% when the executive board gathers on April 25 and Governor Erik Thedeen has said that data published ahead of that meeting would be “more important than ever” for determining its course of action

In rates, treasuries were slightly cheaper from front-end out to intermediates, adding to Thursday’s selloff as stock futures rose after strong JPM earnings. US yields cheaper by up to 1bp across belly. 10-year yields around 3.46%, richer by 2bps vs. Thursday close with gilts lagging by additional 1bp in the sector and bunds trading broadly inline. IG issuance slate empty so far; volumes for the week sit at around $11b vs. projections of $10b to $15b. Three-month dollar Libor +0.14bp at 5.26171%.

In commodities, Crude futures edge up with WTI rising 0.2% to trade near $82.30. Spot gold falls 0.2% to around $2,036. Bitcoin adds 1.6% but has been overshadowed by Ethereum, which has jumped 5.2%.

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for March, along with the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for April. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Waller, the ECB’s Nagel and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, today’s earnings releases will include JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock and UnitedHealth.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 4,166.50
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 466.10
MXAP up 0.5% to 163.91
MXAPJ up 0.5% to 529.15
Nikkei up 1.2% to 28,493.47
Topix up 0.5% to 2,018.72
Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 20,438.81
Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,338.15
Sensex little changed at 60,431.00
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,361.58
Kospi up 0.4% to 2,571.49
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.38%
Euro up 0.1% to $1.1058
Brent Futures little changed at $86.12/bbl
Gold spot down 0.3% to $2,033.91
US Dollar Index little changed at 100.93

Top Overnight News

Singapore’s central bank kept its monetary policy settings unchanged after five straight tightening moves since October 2021, joining a growing list of central banks that have opted to pause amid global growth risks and ebbing inflation. BBG
China approved “provision of lethal aid” to Russia in its war in Ukraine earlier this year and planned to disguise military equipment as civilian items, according to a U.S. intercept of Russian intelligence revealed in leaked secret documents. WaPo
Sweden’s underlying inflation slowed for the first time in more than a year, raising hopes of a turnaround for the Nordic nation’s households and its central bank, which remains under pressure to raise borrowing costs. BBG
Hopes for a deal to end some of the rail strikes that have hit UK passengers rose on Friday after train companies made another offer to transport unions. The Rail Delivery Group, which represents train operators, said its latest proposal to the RMT union added “important clarifications and reassurances” around job terms and conditions to its longstanding offer of a 9 per cent pay rise over two years. FT
The cost of buying insurance against a US government default has shot to its highest level in more than a decade, in an early sign of market concerns about the political impasse in Washington over the debt ceiling. FT
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is preparing to unveil next week a plan that would suspend the nation’s debt ceiling for a year in return for spending concessions, according to people familiar with the talks. BBG
Boeing said on Thursday that a production issue will affect its ability to deliver a “significant” number of 737 Max jets, potentially exacerbating aircraft shortages for airlines around the world. FT
Russian oil exports in March soared to the highest since April 2020 thanks to surging product flows that returned to levels last seen before Russia invaded Ukraine. IEA
BlackRock beat consensus with net inflows of $110.32 billion and AUM of $9.09 trillion, which was a decline year on year but topped estimates. The firm’s also been selling off asset-backed securities for Credit Suisse over the last two weeks including at least $300 million of bonds, people familiar said. BBG
A weakening outlook for corporate spending coupled with emergent concerns about the lending environment represent downside risks to dividends. According to Bloomberg bottom-up consensus forecasts, regional banks and office REITs are expected to contribute less than $1 to S&P 500 DPS in 2023. This would represent just 6 bp of the index-level growth implied by Bloomberg bottom-up forecasts. If these groups were to simply maintain their current dividend policy for the rest of the year, the index would be on track to realize 5% year/year growth.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded with modest and cautious gains with upside momentum somewhat waning in what was a catalyst-light session. ASX 200 was indecisive and moved between gains and losses in early trade, with the heavy outperformance of gold miners cushioning losses for the index. Nikkei 225 outperformed and was propped up by almost all of its sectors at one point in the aftermath of Warren Buffett’s bullish comments on Japanese stocks earlier this week, whilst Fast Retailing shares gained over 8% post-earnings after upping its earnings forecasts. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp saw mild gains for most of the session, but ranges were contained with traders cautious ahead of next week’s key economic data including GDP, whilst PBoC Governor Yi Gang said he expects China’s 2023 GDP growth at “around 5%” – in line with the government target.

Top Asian News

PBoC Governor Yi Gang and Fed Chair Powell discussed the economic and financial situations of the US and China on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg.
PBoC Governor Yi Gang expects China’s 2023 GDP growth at around 5% (in line with the government target), and China’s economy is stabilising and rebounding, according to the statement from the G20 meeting. He said China’s inflation stays at low levels and China’s property market is showing positive changes.
China’s top banks reportedly plan USD 5.8bln of bond sales to plug the capital hole, according to Bloomberg.
“The scale of [Chinese] special bond issuance in the second quarter may continue to remain high. If the subsequent economic recovery falls short of expectations”, according to Securities Times.
BoJ Governor Ueda said the BoJ will maintain current monetary easing; Japan’s core CPI, which is now above 3%, will likely slow back below 2% towards the latter half of this FY. He added they expect wages in Japan to continue rising, based on their view that the global economy will recover, according to Reuters.
RBNZ Finance Minister Robertson says New Zealand has headroom on the balance sheet with borrowing below 20% of GDP, and the inflation impact from rebuild may be less than feared, according to Reuters.
BoK Governor Rhee says not worried about a specific USD/KRW rate, according to Reuters.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) maintains the slope, width, and centre of the currency band; and said core inflation is expected to ease materially by end-2023.
Taiwan’s leading tech companies suffered the biggest drop in revenue in at least a decade last month, according to Nikkei data.
China’s Commerce Ministry says it is reviewing anti-dumping/anti-subsidy tariff on Australian barley.

European bourses are almost entirely firmer, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%, with catalysts ex-earnings lights and the Stoxx 600 on track to see the week out with gains of circa. 1.5%. Earnings from Hermes initially bolstered Consumer Products & Services, though now off best, with Real Estate leading while Energy and Insurance names lag. Stateside, futures are modestly in the red with action tentative ahead of US bank earnings and retail sales thereafter, ES -0.3%. UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) Q1 2023 (USD): EPS 6.26 (exp. 6.13), Revenue 91.9bln (exp. 89.78bln) +1.5% in pre-market trade. BlackRock Inc (BLK) Q1 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 7.93 (exp. 7.76), Revenue 4.24bln (exp. 4.24bln)

Top European News

ECB’s Kazaks said the risk of recession is non-trivial and rates will need to go up more to tame inflation, according to CNBC. He added the key issue is still very high inflation, and he wouldn’t exclude a 50bps hike in May.
ECB’s Holzmann said that a 50bps rate hike is in the ballpark for May, according to CNBC.
ECB’s Nagel said he doesn’t expect a recession, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Wunsch says ECB could fully stop APP reinvestments this year; market pricing of terminal rate reasonable, but no quick rate cut likely thereafter.
Spain’s Economy Minister Calviño said GDP at the start of the year has been very strong, according to Reuters.
German Economy Ministry: Q1 GDP growth likely to have increased slightly QQ, as such a technical recession can be avoided.
UK Chancellor Hunt said the latest GDP numbers show there’s absolutely no room for complacency. He noted confidence in the resilience of the UK economy among global finance officials, according to Reuters.
UK Chancellor Hunt to “look at” raising deposit guarantees in wake of SVB collapse after recent turmoil showed banks could fail more rapidly than in the 2008 crisis, according to FT.

DXY dangling off minor new 2023 low within 101.010-100.780 range ahead of US retail sales, ip, UoM survey and dove/hawk Fed speakers.
Majors narrowly mixed vs Greenback, but near peaks and big figure levels.
Yen capped by decent option expiry interest at 132.00, Aussie and Kiwi straddle 100 DMAs at 0.6800 and 0.6302.
PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8606 vs exp. 6.8614 (prev. 6.8658)

Fixed Income

USTs flat-line awaiting busy agenda, as 10 year yield holds below 3.5% and T-note drift within 115-20+/114+ range.
Bunds and Gilts underperform after brief bounces above 135.00 and towards 103.00, as w-t-d lows remain magnetic.
Modest bounce in the space following Fed’s Bostic (2024 Voter), who said after one more interest rate hike the Fed can pause to assess.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) has established the terms of five yen-denominated bonds, amounting to JPY 164.4bln, according to dealwatch.

Commodities

Once again, a fairly contained session for the commodity space with crude little changed overall and metals just off Thursday’s best in limited newsflow.
Crude specifically has been slightly choppy but is yet to meaningfully stray for the neutral mark with parameters particularly thin. Amidst this, the complex is on track to see the week out with upside just shy of USD 2.0/bbl.
Angola expects its oil production to temporarily increase next year on the back of recent private investments, but will remain under 1.5mln BPD (vs current 1.12mln BPD); the budget assumes oil at USD 75/bbl; oil under USD 70/bbl becomes uncomfortable, according to Reuters.
The Biden admin reportedly approved LNG exports from the proposed Alaska LNG project, according to a document cited by Reuters.
IEA Monthly Oil Market Report: oil demand is set to increase by 2mln BPD in 2023 to a record of 101.9mln BPD (vs. March view of 101.9mln BPD)
Chilean mining minister expects the current production slump in the local copper industry to rebound in the coming years; sees no large variation in copper price from Cochilco forecast of USD 3.85/lb this year; dialogue with industry is helping ease concerns, according to Reuters.
Yellow metal has dipped by around USD 10/oz from the overnight USD 2047oz peak, which is around USD 1/oz shy of the WTD best; base metals firmer, though off best as the USD attempts to recover.

Geopolitics

North Korean leader Kim guided Thursday’s solid-fuel ICBM test, according to local media KCNA – the new ICBM called Hwasong-18.
China carried out missile launch drills in the Xinjiang region, according to Chinese state media.
Russian Defence Ministry says the Pacific Fleet has been put on high alert in a surprise inspection, via Tass.
US and South Korea are to stage air drills involving US B-52 bomber, according to Yonhap.

US Event Calendar

08:30: March Import Price Index YoY, est. -4.0%, prior -1.1%
08:30: March Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.1%
08:30: March Export Price Index YoY, prior -0.8%
08:30: March Export Price Index MoM, est. 0%, prior 0.2%
08:30: March Retail Sales Control Group, est. -0.5%, prior 0.5%
08:30: March Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. -0.6%, prior 0%
08:30: March Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. -0.4%, prior -0.1%
08:30: March Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. -0.4%, prior -0.4%
09:15: March Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0%
09:15: March Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. -0.1%, prior 0.1%
09:15: March Capacity Utilization, est. 79.1%, prior 78.0%, revised 79.1%
10:00: Feb. Business Inventories, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%
10:00: April U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 62.1, prior 62.0
10:00: April U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 58.5, prior 59.2
10:00: April U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 66.0, prior 66.3
10:00: April U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 3.7%, prior 3.6%
10:00: April U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9%

DB’s Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

Risk appetite returned to markets over the last 24 hours, aided by some weak US data that supported expectations the Fed might soon call it a day on their rate hikes. In particular, investors welcomed the news that US producer price inflation had surprised on the downside, with both headline and core PPI coming in at their slowest monthly pace since 2020. But even as markets were rallying, concerns about an economic slowdown remained prominent after Wednesday’s Fed minutes showed that the staff were now projecting a mild recession. Those fears then got some added support from other data yesterday, since the weekly initial jobless claims came in above expectations for a third week running.

The problem for many investors right now is that it’s still possible to construct fairly divergent narratives about the economy depending on which series you look at. On the one hand, an array of leading indicators are pointing to a US recession over the coming year, in line with our own House View at DB Research. For instance, yield curves have inverted, temporary jobs are declining, and on previous occasions when the Fed have hiked this fast and this quickly, a recession has followed shortly afterwards. But if you wanted to take the opposite view, you could point to unemployment around its lowest in decades, a high level of vacancies by historic standards, financial markets that have mostly shrugged off the SVB-related turmoil by now, along with growing signs that inflation is softening and the Fed are nearing a pause in their rate hikes.

For the time being at least, investors took hope in the soft PPI release, where the details were more positive for investors relative to the CPI release the previous day. That’s because the PPI reading saw both headline and core surprise on the downside, unlike for the CPI reading where core inflation was still resilient and in line with expectations. For instance, monthly headline PPI came in at -0.5% (vs. 0.0% expected), taking the year-on-year measure down to +2.7% (vs. +3.0% expected). In the meantime, core PPI which excludes food, energy and trade services came in at +0.1% (vs. +0.3% expected), taking the year-on-year measure down to +3.6% (vs. +3.8% expected).

This positive backdrop on the inflation side led to a strong equity performance, and the S&P 500 (+1.33%) posted its biggest advance of April so far with 78% of the index finishing the day higher. Those gains were led by the more rates-sensitive sectors like tech, and the NASDAQ had its best day in nearly a month (+1.99%), whilst the FANG+ index was up +2.44%. At the same time, equity volatility remained subdued as the VIX index (-1.3pts) closed at its lowest level since January 2022, at just 17.80pts, which is striking when you consider how tumultuous markets were only a month earlier. The next thing to look out for will be earnings season now, with several US financials reporting today, including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and BlackRock.

With softer inflation than previously expected, investors moved to slightly dial back how much they expected the Fed to keep hiking. For instance, the chances of a hike at the May meeting have fallen marginally to 69% overnight, having been above 70% for much of the last week. On the other hand, growing bullishness meant that longer-term rates moved a bit higher, and the rate priced in by the December meeting actually rose +2.1bps to 4.34%. In turn, shorter-dated Treasury yields were rather flat on the day, with the 2yr yield closing +1.1bps higher at 3.97%, and the 10yr yield saw a +5.4bps increase to 3.44%.

Another factor driving a modest selloff in shorter-dated US treasuries yesterday was the news that House Republicans were set to release a proposal to suspend the debt ceiling for a year in return for short-term spending concessions. This proposal is just the opening of GOP negotiations with the White House and congressional Democrats, and follows the release of the Biden administration’s budget proposal a few weeks back. The plan, as reported by Bloomberg, would suspend the debt ceiling until May 2024, which would also have political ramifications as it would be just 6 months before the 2024 presidential elections.

Over in Europe, there was also a reasonable dose of optimism, with the Euro itself closing above $1.10 for the first time since April 2022, just over a year ago. And overnight it’s seen a further increase that leaves it at $1.1072 right now. That optimism was echoed among equities, as the STOXX 600 (+0.40%) advanced for a 4th consecutive session to reach its highest level in over a month. This more positive backdrop came amidst growing expectations that the ECB might pursue another 50bp hike at their next meeting in May, rather than stepping down to 25bps like the Fed did earlier this year. Indeed, yesterday saw Belgium’s Wunsch and Slovenia’s Vasle say that the next decision would be between doing 25bps or 50bps, so explicitly opening the door to that option. Then Latvia’s Kazaks said “I don’t see any reason to slow down any time soon in terms of interest-rate increases, because inflation does remain very high”. That comes on the heels of Austria’s Holzmann endorsing a 50bp move the previous day, and yields on 10yr bunds (+0.2bps), OATs (+0.4bps) and BTPs (+0.7bps) all saw a modest increase.

Overnight in Asia, risk assets across the region have been supported by the strong handover from Wall Street overnight. Most of the major equity indices are trading higher, including the Nikkei (+1.07%), the KOSPI (+0.69%), the CSI 300 (+0.39%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.33%). The only exception is the Hang Seng (-0.00%) which is almost unchanged. However, US stocks futures are struggling to gain traction this morning, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.05%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.09%) both slightly lower. Another trend overnight has been the continued decline in the US dollar index (-0.20%), which has weakened for a fourth consecutive day and is currently trading close to a one-year low this morning.

Elsewhere yesterday, another asset class that benefited from the prospect of a pause in the Fed’s rate hikes were precious metals. For instance, gold prices (+1.26%) climbed to their highest level in over a year, closing at $2,040/oz, which leaves it just short of its all-time high in nominal terms, when it hit an intraday level of $2,075/oz back in August 2020. Overnight it’s risen a further +0.13% to $2,043/oz. In the meantime, silver (+1.28%) was also at its highest level in nearly a year, hitting $25.82/oz by the close, and overnight it’s risen a further +0.63% to $25.99/oz, which would leave it at a one-year closing high.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, the US weekly initial jobless claims came in at 239k in the week ending April 8 (vs. 235k expected). And here in the UK, monthly GDP growth in February was flat (vs. +0.1% expected), although the overall picture was a bit better than that implied, since the January figure was revised up a tenth to +0.4%.

2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT

Cautious APAC gains in light trade ahead of US bank earnings – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

FRIDAY, APR 14, 2023 – 01:48 AM

APAC stocks traded with modest and cautious gains with upside momentum somewhat waning in what was a catalyst-light session
DXY printed fresh incremental YTD lows overnight of 100.78 as APAC players reacted to the latest batch of US data
US House Republicans are considering a proposal that would kick the debate over the US debt limit to 2024, according to Bloomberg sources.
European equity futures are indicative of a slightly firmer cash open, with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.3% after the cash market closed +0.7% yesterday.
PBoC Governor Yi Gang and Fed Chair Powell discussed the economic and financial situations of the US and China on Tuesday
Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF, US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production, US Uni. of Michigan Prelim. Survey, speeches from Fed’s Waller, BoE’s Tenreyro, earnings from UnitedHealth, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock.

View the full premarket movers and news report.

Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?

US TRADE

EQUITIES

US stocks rallied through the session Thursday with gains led by Big Tech in price action that seemed to be more flow-driven than due to a specific catalyst.
SPX +1.33% at 4,146, NDX +2.03% at 13,109, DJIA +1.14% at 34,030, RUT +1.30% at 1,796.
Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

US House Republicans are considering a proposal that would kick the debate over the US debt limit to 2024; are readying legislation they could unveil next week that would suspend the debt ceiling until May 2024, according to Bloomberg sources.
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet (USD, W/W): 8.665tln (prev. 8.682tln), Discount Window borrowing 67.6bln (prev. 69.7bln), BTFP 71.8bln (prev. 79bln), Foreign Repo Usage 30bln (prev. 40bln).
Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker at 6.4% in March (prev. 6.1% in February); for people who changed jobs at 7.3% (prev. 6.7%), for those not changing jobs at 5.9% (prev. 5.8%).
Wells Fargo (WFC) reportedly faces US regulatory heat after Silicon Valley Bank meltdown, according to NY Post citing sources.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

APAC stocks traded with modest and cautious gains with upside momentum somewhat waning in what was a catalyst-light session.
ASX 200 was indecisive and moved between gains and losses in early trade, with the heavy outperformance of gold miners cushioning losses for the index.
Nikkei 225 outperformed and was propped up by almost all of its sectors at one point in the aftermath of Warren Buffett’s bullish comments on Japanese stocks earlier this week, whilst Fast Retailing shares gained over 8% post-earnings after upping its earnings forecasts
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp saw mild gains for most of the session, but ranges were contained with traders cautious ahead of next week’s key economic data including GDP, whilst PBoC Governor Yi Gang said he expects China’s 2023 GDP growth at “around 5%” – in line with the government target.
US equity futures (ES unch.) held onto yesterday’s gains and traded horizontally overnight with a mild downside bias.
European equity futures are indicative of a slightly firmer cash open, with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.3% after the cash market closed +0.7% yesterday.

FX

DXY printed fresh incremental YTD lows overnight of 100.78 as APAC players reacted to the latest batch of US data, with the next level to the downside the 22nd April 2022 low at 100.47.
G10 pairs posted modest gains across the board against the Dollar.
EUR/USD found some resistance at 1.1075 whilst GBP/USD stopped short of testing 1.2550 to the upside, with newsflow for the pairs quiet overnight.
JPY was modestly firmer against the USD but weaker against the EUR and flat against GBP.
NZD outperformed after NZD/USD rose back above its 100 DMA (0.6302), while the AUD traded flat for most of the session.
CNH saw upticks after PBoC Governor Yi Gang said he expects China’s 2023 GDP growth at around 5%, and said China’s economy is stabilising and rebounding, according to the statement from the G20 meeting.
KRW experienced another day of gains after the BoK’s FX swap deal was announced yesterday.
SGD weakened after Q1 GDP missed expectations whilst the MAS also stood pat on its policy.
PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8606 vs exp. 6.8614 (prev. 6.8658)

FIXED INCOME

10yr UST futures gradually edged higher following yesterday’s choppy price action which saw a fade of the PPI rally.
Bund futures held a downward bias following a slew of commentary from ECB hawks and after some late state-side selling.
10yr JGB futures drifted lower throughout the session but were initially supported by BoJ governor Ueda said the BoJ will maintain current monetary easing and core CPI is expected to fall back below 2% towards the latter half of the fiscal year.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) has established the terms of five yen-denominated bonds, amounting to JPY 164.4bln, according to dealwatch.

COMMODITIES

Crude futures were relatively uneventful after paring some of their recent strength on Thursday despite the softer Dollar, with desks pointing to growth concerns.
Angola expects its oil production to temporarily increase next year on the back of recent private investments, but will remain under 1.5mln BPD (vs current 1.12mln BPD); the budget assumes oil at USD 75/bbl; oil under USD 70/bbl becomes uncomfortable, according to Reuters.
The Biden admin reportedly approved LNG exports from the proposed Alaska LNG project, according to a document cited by Reuters.
Spot gold and base metals were supported amid the broader Dollar weakness, with spot gold finding some resistance just before yesterday’s 2,048.71/oz high.
Chilean mining minister expects the current production slump in the local copper industry to rebound in the coming years; sees no large variation in copper price from Cochilco forecast of USD 3.85/lb this year; dialogue with industry is helping ease concerns, according to Reuters.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin prices pulled back after reaching a high just shy of USD 31k but traded firmer during the session. Ethereum outperformed and topped USD 2,100 following a software upgrade dubbed the “Shanghai update”.
London Stock Exchange is to offer leveraged bets on Bitcoin (BTC), according to The Times.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

PBoC Governor Yi Gang and Fed Chair Powell discussed the economic and financial situations of the US and China on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg.
PBoC Governor Yi Gang expects China’s 2023 GDP growth at around 5% (in line with the government target), and China’s economy is stabilising and rebounding, according to the statement from the G20 meeting. He said China’s inflation stays at low levels and China’s property market is showing positive changes.
China’s top banks reportedly plan USD 5.8bln of bond sales to plug the capital hole, according to Bloomberg.
“The scale of [Chinese] special bond issuance in the second quarter may continue to remain high. If the subsequent economic recovery falls short of expectations”, according to Securities Times.
BoJ Governor Ueda said the BoJ will maintain current monetary easing; Japan’s core CPI, which is now above 3%, will likely slow back below 2% towards the latter half of this FY. He added they expect wages in Japan to continue rising, based on their view that the global economy will recover, according to Reuters.
RBNZ Finance Minister Robertson says New Zealand has headroom on the balance sheet with borrowing below 20% of GDP, and the inflation impact from rebuild may be less than feared, according to Reuters.
BoK Governor Rhee says not worried about a specific USD/KRW rate, according to Reuters.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) maintains the slope, width, and centre of the currency band; and said core inflation is expected to ease materially by end-2023.
Taiwan’s leading tech companies suffered the biggest drop in revenue in at least a decade last month, according to Nikkei data.

DATA RECAP

New Zealand Manufacturing PMI* (Mar) 48.1 (Prev. 52.0)
Singapore GDP Flash Q/Q Q1: -0.7% (Exp. -0.2%, Prev. -0.3%); Advance Y/Y Q1: 0.1% (Exp. 0.6%, Prev. 2.1%).

GEOPOLITICAL

Russia could consider the possibility of a prisoner exchange for jailed WSJ reporter Gershkovich only after a Russian court renders a verdict on an espionage allegation, according to WSJ citing Russian official.
North Korean leader Kim guided Thursday’s solid-fuel ICBM test, according to local media KCNA – the new ICBM called Hwasong-18.
USTR Tai is to visit Tokyo, Japan next week, according to Bloomberg.
China carried out missile launch drills in the Xinjiang region, according to Chinese state media.

EU/UK

ECB’s Kazaks said the risk of recession is non-trivial and rates will need to go up more to tame inflation, according to CNBC. He added the key issue is still very high inflation, and he wouldn’t exclude a 50bps hike in May.
ECB’s Holzmann said that a 50bps rate hike is in the ballpark for May, according to CNBC.
ECB’s Nagel said he doesn’t expect a recession, according to Reuters.
Spain’s Economy Minister Calviño said GDP at the start of the year has been very strong, according to Reuters.
UK Chancellor Hunt said the latest GDP numbers show there’s absolutely no room for complacency. He noted confidence in the resilience of the UK economy among global finance officials, according to Reuters.
UK Chancellor Hunt to “look at” raising deposit guarantees in wake of SVB collapse after recent turmoil showed banks could fail more rapidly than in the 2008 crisis, according to FT.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen is to meet with BoE Governor Bailey at 15:30EDT/20:30BST, according to Bloomberg.

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:

FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN/

END

3 CHINA /

CHINA/RUSSIA

Where we are heading

(Pepe Escobar)

Escobar: Waiting For The End Of The World

THURSDAY, APR 13, 2023 – 11:40 PM

Authored by Pepe Escobar,

NOTE: This is the English original of a column specially commissioned by leading Russian business daily Vedemosti.

We were waiting for the end of the world
Waiting for the end of the world, waiting for the end of the world
Dear Lord, I sincerely hope You’re coming
‘Cause You really started something

Elvis Costello, Waiting for the End of the World, 1977

We cannot even begin to fathom the non-stop ripple effects deriving from the 2023 geopolitical earthquake that shook the world: Putin and Xi, in Moscow, de facto signaling the beginning of the end of Pax Americana.

This has been the ultimate anathema for rarified Anglo-American hegemonic elites for over a century: a signed, sealed, comprehensive strategic partnership of two peer competitors, intertwining a massive manufacturing base and pre-eminence in supply of natural resources – with value-added Russian state of the art weaponry and diplomatic nous.

From the point of view of these elites, whose Plan A was always a debased version of the Roman Empire’s Divide and Rule, this was never supposed to happen. In fact, blinded by hubris, they never saw it coming. Historically, this does not even qualify as a remix of the Tournament of Shadows; it’s more like Tawdry Empire Left in the Shade, “foaming at the mouth” (copyright Maria Zakharova).

Xi and Putin, with one Sun Tzu move, immobilized Orientalism, Eurocentrism, Exceptionalism and, last but not least, Neo-Colonialism. No wonder the Global South was riveted by what developed in Moscow.

Adding insult to injury, we have China, the world’s largest economy by far when measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), as well as the largest exporter. And we have Russia, an economy that by PPP is equivalent or even larger than Germany’s – with the added advantages of being the world’s largest energy exporter and not forced to de-industrialize.

Together, in synch, they are focused on creating the necessary conditions to bypass the US dollar.

Cue to one of President Putin’s crucial one-liners: “We are in favor of using the Chinese yuan for settlements between Russia and the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America.”

A key consequence of this geopolitical and geoeconomic alliance, carefully designed throughout the past few years, is already in play: the emergence of a possible triad in terms of global trade relations and, in many aspects, a Global Trade War.

Eurasia is being led – and largely organized – by the Russia-China partnership. China will also play a key role across the Global South, but India may also become quite influential, agglutinating what would be a Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) on steroids. And then there is the former “indispensable nation” ruling over the EU vassals and the Anglosphere rounded up in the Five Eyes.

What the Chinese really want

The Hegemon, under its self-concocted “rules-based international order”, essentially never did diplomacy. Divide and Rule, by definition, precludes diplomacy. Now their version of “diplomacy” has degenerated even further into crude insults by an array of US, EU and UK’s intellectually challenged and frankly moronic functionaries.

It’s no wonder that a true gentleman, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, has been forced to admit, “Russia is no longer a partner of the EU… The European Union ‘lost’ Russia. But the Union itself is to blame. After all, EU member states… openly declare that Russia should be dealt a strategic defeat. That is why we consider the EU to be an enemy organization.”

And yet the new Russian foreign policy concept, announced by Putin on March 31st, makes it quite clear: Russia does not consider itself an “enemy of the West” and does not seek isolation.

The problem is there’s virtually no adult to talk to on the other side, rather a bunch of hyenas. That has led Lavrov to once again stress that “symmetrical and asymmetrical” measures may be used against those involved in “hostile” actions against Moscow.

When it comes to Exceptionalistan, that’s self-evident: the US is designated by Moscow as the prime anti-Russia instigator, and the collective West’s overall policy is described as “a new type of Hybrid War.”

Yet what really matters for Moscow are the positives further on down the road: non-stop Eurasia integration; closer ties with “friendly global centers” China and India; increased help to Africa; more strategic cooperation with Latin America and the Caribbean, the lands of Islam – Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt – and ASEAN.

And that brings us to something essential that was – predictably – ignored en masse by Western media: the Boao Forum for Asia, which took place nearly simultaneously with the announcement of Russia’s new foreign policy concept.

The Boao Forum, started in early 2001, still in the pre-9/11 era, has been modeled on Davos, but it’s Top China through and through, with the secretariat based in Beijing. Boao is in Hainan province, one of the islands of the Gulf of Tonkin and today a tourist paradise.

One of the key sessions of this year’s forum was on development and security, chaired by former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who is currently Boao’s president.

There were quite a few references to Xi’s Global Development Initiative as well as the Global Security Initiative – which by the way was launched at Boao in 2022.

The problem is these two initiatives are directly linked to the UN’s concept of peace and security and the extremely dodgy Agenda 2030 on “sustainable development” – which is not exactly about development and much less “sustainable”: it’s a Davos uber-corporate concoction. The UN for its part is basically a hostage of Washington’s whims. Beijing, for the moment, plays along.

Premier Li Qiang was more specific. Stressing the trademark concept of “community of shared future for mankind” as the basis for peace and development, he linked peaceful coexistence with the “Spirit of Bandung” – in direct continuity with the emergence of NAM in 1955: that should be the “Asian Way” of mutual respect and building consensus – in opposition to “the indiscriminate use of unilateral sanctions and long-reaching jurisdiction”, and the refusal of “a new Cold War”.

And that led Li Qiang to the emphasis on the Chinese drive to deepen the RCEP East Asian trade deal, and also advance the negotiations on the free trade agreement between China and ASEAN. And all that integrated with the new expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in contrast to trade protectionism.

So for the Chinese what matters, intertwined with business, is cultural interactions; inclusivity; mutual trust; and a stern refusal of “clash of civilizations” and ideological confrontation.

As much as Moscow easily subscribes to all of the above – and in fact practices it via diplomatic finesse – Washington is terrified by how compelling is this Chinese narrative for the whole Global South. After all, Exceptionalistan’s only offer in the market of ideas is unilateral domination; Divide an Rule; and “you’re with us or against us”. And in the latter case you will be sanctioned, harassed, bombed and/or regime-changed.

Is it 1848 all over again?

Meanwhile, in vassal territories, a possibility arises of a revival of 1848, when a big revolutionary wave hit all over Europe.

In 1848 these were liberal revolutions; today we have essentially popular anti-liberal (and anti-war) revolutions – from farmers in the Netherlands and Belgium to unreconstructed populists in Italy and Left and Right populists combined in France.

It may be too early to consider this a European Spring. Yet what’s certain in several latitudes is that average European citizens feel increasingly inclined to shed the yoke of Neoliberal Technocracy and its dictatorship of Capital and Surveillance. Not to mention NATO warmongering.

As virtually all European media is technocrat-controlled people won’t see this discussion in the MSM. Yet there’s a feeling in the air this may be heralding a Chinese-style end of a dynasty.

In the Chinese calendar this is how it always goes: their historical-societal clock always runs with periods of between 200 and 400 years per dynasty.

There are indeed intimations that Europe may be witnessing a rebirth.

The period of upheaval will be long and arduous – due to the hordes of anarco-liberals who are such useful idiots for the Western oligarchy – or it could all come to a head in a single day. The target is quite clear: the death of Neoliberal Technocracy.

That’s how the Xi-Putin view could make inroads across the collective West: show that this ersatz “modernity” (which incorporates rabid cancel culture) is essentially void compared to traditional, deeply rooted cultural values – be it Confucianism, Taoism or Eastern Orthodoxy. The Chinese and Russian concepts of civilization-state are much more appealing than they appear.

Well, the (cultural) revolution won’t be televised; but it may work its charms via countless Telegram channels. France, infatuated with rebellion throughout its history, may well be jump to the vanguard – again.

Yet nothing will change if the global financial casino is not subverted. Russia taught the world a lesson: it was preparing itself, in silence, for a long-term Total War. So much so that its calibrated counterpunch turned the Financial War upside down – completely destabilizing the casino. China, meanwhile, is re-balancing, and is on the way to be also prepared for Total War, hybrid and otherwise.

The inestimable Michael Hudson, fresh from his latest book, The Collapse of Antiquity, where he deftly analyzes the role of debt in Greece And Rome, the roots of Western civilization, succinctly explains our current state of play:

“America has pulled a color revolution at the top, in Germany, Holland, England, and France, essentially, where the foreign policy of Europe is not representing their own economic interests (…) America simply said, – We are committed to support a war of (what they call) democracy (by which they mean oligarchy, including the Nazism of Ukraine) against autocracy (…) Autocracy is any country strong enough to prevent the emergence of a creditor oligarchy, like China has prevented the creditor oligarchy.”

So “creditor oligarchy”, in fact, can be explained as the toxic intersection between globalist wet dreams of total control and militarized Full Spectrum Dominance.

The difference now is that Russia and China are showing to the Global South that what American strategists had in store for them – you’re going to “freeze in the dark” if you deviate from what we say – is no longer applicable. Most of the Global South is now in open geoeconomic revolt.

Globalist neoliberal totalitarianism of course won’t disappear under a sand storm. At least not yet. There’s still a maelstrom of toxicity ahead: suspension of constitutional rights; Orwellian propaganda; goon squads; censorship; cancel culture; ideological conformity; irrational curbs of freedom of movement; hatred and even persecution of – Slav – Untermenschen; segregation; criminalization of dissent; book burnings, show trials; fake arrest mandates by the kangaroo ICC; ISIS-style terror.

But the most important vector is that both China and Russia, each exhibiting their own complex particularities – and both dismissed by the West as unassimilable Others – are heavily invested in building workable economic models that are not connected, in several degrees, to the Western financial casino and/or supply chain networks. And that’s what’s driving the Exceptionalists berserk – even more berserk than they already are.

* * *

Pepe Escobar is a Eurasia-wide independent geopolitical analyst and author. His latest book is Raging Twenties (Nimble Books, 2021). Follow him on Telegram at @rocknrollgeopolitics

END

end

4.EUROPEAN AND UK AFFAIRS

HUNGARY/EU/USA

USA slaps sanctions on Hungary bank over its Russia’s ties

(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)

US Slaps Sanctions On Hungary Bank Over Russia Ties

FRIDAY, APR 14, 2023 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The US on Wednesday imposed sanctions on a bank based in Hungary over its ties to Russia, a move that further strains ties between Washington and Budapest.

According to Reuters, the sanctions targeted three top officials in the International Investment Bank in Budapest, two Russian nationals, and one Hungarian national. US Ambassador to Hungary David Pressman said the US had previously warned Hungary about the bank.

“Unlike other NATO allies previously engaged with this Russian entity, Hungary has dismissed the concerns of the United States government regarding the risks its continued presence poses to the alliance,” Pressman told reporters in Budapest.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has attempted to maintain good relations with Moscow and has been calling for peace talks to end the war in Ukraine and has previously delayed EU sanctions on Russia, angering officials in Brussels and Washington. Hungary also secured an exemption from the Russian oil ban since it’s a land-locked country and is reliant on pipeline infrastructure.

“We have concerns, about the continued eagerness of Hungarian leaders to expand and deepen ties with the Russian Federation,” Pressman said. Orban’s government has also come under more general criticism from the US and EU since he won reelection last spring.

The sanctions came after a top-secret CIA document that surfaced on the internet as part of a trove of leaks revealed that the US was likely spying on Orban.

As The Washington Times reviews of the leaked document:

The purported CIA assessment relating to Mr. Orban was first reported by The Wall Street Journal, which characterized it as underscoring a rift between the U.S. and Hungary and noted that the document raises the possibility of U.S. spying on the Fidesz Party.

The CIA intelligence update of March 2 said Mr. Orban’s inclusion of the U.S. as a top adversary in a Feb. 22 political-strategy meeting “constitutes an escalation of the level of anti-American rhetoric,” according to The Journal, which reported that the document listed the U.S. Embassy as the source for the information.

The document said in a February meeting with his aides, Orban named the US as one of his Fidesz Party’s top three adversaries.

END

FRANCE

This could lead to more trouble in France

French Court Approves Macron’s Unpopular Pension Reform As Fresh Protests Expected

FRIDAY, APR 14, 2023 – 12:40 PM

France’s top constitutional body ruled in favor of President Emmanuel Macron’s unpopular plan to raise the retirement age is in line with the French Constitution, a decision that will only spark further social unrest.

Bloomberg reported the Constitutional Council in Paris, France’s equivalent of the US Supreme Court, “approved the core elements of the law, including the key contested provision to raise the minimum retirement age by two years to 64.”

The nine-member body rejected one of two opposition-backed demands for a process that would’ve allowed for a referendum on keeping the pension age cutoff at 62.

We suspect hardline unions and the opposition won’t back down this weekend and will continue protests.

On Thursday, pension demonstrators stormed the LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, the world’s largest maker of luxury goods, headquarters in Paris. One union leader said:

“Apparently our government is struggling to finance our social security and pension system, so money needs to be found where it is, which is in billions in companies like LVMH,” Fabien Villedieu from the Sud-Rail unions said on local television.

Just last week, pension protesters stormed the offices of BlackRock’s Paris headquarters .

More demonstrations are imminent after today’s ruling that solidified pension reform. 153

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA

The Black Sea Will Never Be ‘NATO’s Sea’, Kremlin Vows

FRIDAY, APR 14, 2023 – 04:15 AM

Liz Truss, who briefly served as the UK’s Prime Minister in 2022, has this week called for Ukraine to be fast-tracked into NATO. “I also believe we should fast-track Ukraine’s membership of NATO. We should have done it years ago, but the best time to do it will be now,” Truss emphasized in a speech at a Heritage Foundation event.

The Kremlin has responded firmly in the face of these recent calls, which have also come from Polish leadership and of course Ukrainian officials, by pledging that the Black Sea will ‘never be NATO’s sea’, according to state media.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Thursday said that “The Black Sea will never be a ‘NATO sea.’ This is a common sea for all coastal states, it should be a sea of cooperation, interaction and security. And it should have indivisible security,” Peskov said.

“The Kremlin believes that NATO and demilitarization are mutually exclusive concepts,” he added, suggesting that the Western military alliance is a threat to peace and not its solution.

The specific references to ‘ownership’ of the Black Sea came in specific response to provocative words of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who urged that allied powers turn the Black Sea into a “NATO sea”. Ironically enough he at the same time called for its demilitarization.

Last month there was a rare downing of a US Reaper drone after the Pentagon says it was harrassed by a pair of Russian Su-27 Flanker jets.

The $32 million drone crashed into the Black Sea after being sprayed with jet fuel as the Russian warplanes passed close by. US analysts said the maneuver had never been seen before, and was enough to damage the Reaper to the point of it having to be put down.

END

RUSSIA/CHINA/AFGHANISTAN

Now Iran, Russia China and Pakistan foreign ministers hold a meeting to deal with the Afghan economic collapse

(the cradle)

Iran, Russia, China, Pakistan FMs Hold Meeting To Deal With Afghan Economic Collapse

THURSDAY, APR 13, 2023 – 10:20 PM

Via The Cradle,

The foreign ministers of Iran, Russia, China, and Pakistan held four-way talks on 13 April in the Uzbek city of Samarkand, on the sidelines of the fourth regional meeting of Afghanistan’s neighbors – where various issues and concerns regarding Afghanistan were discussed.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein-Amir Abdollahian, and Pakistani Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Rabbani Khar were photographed together before proceeding with the closed-door meeting, Russian news agency TASS reported.

Following the meeting, Amir-Abdollahian said that he and the other diplomats discussed a wide range of issues regarding Afghanistan – including a recent surge in extremist activity, problems caused by US sanctions, the poor living conditions of the Afghan people, and the flow of Afghan refugees into Iran and other countries.

The Iranian foreign minister stressed the importance of countering drug trafficking originating in the country, and the Taliban government’s responsibility in that area.

He also strongly criticized the continued ban on female education in the country – which Iran has repeatedly listed as a condition for its recognition of the interim government.

In this regard, the diplomats discussed steps to bring about a political settlement that includes an inclusive government, something Beijing has also consistently called on the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) to implement.

They also discussed ways to stabilize humanitarian and socio-economic conditions in the country – particularly through “the development of regional economic integration and the implementation of transport and energy projects with Kabul’s participation,” TASS said.

In the joint statement released after the meeting, the ministers expressed support for the principle of “Afghan leadership, Afghan ownership” regarding Afghanistan’s political determination and development path, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said.

Afghanistan is currently facing a severe economic and humanitarian situation as a result of Washington’s decision to freeze billions of dollars in the country’s foreign reserves in 2021. This pushed the country into an acute crisis, given that the central bank lacks the resources to combat high inflation and food insecurity – which has become rampant. The country has also been facing an increased extremist threat through attacks from groups such as ISIS-K. Moscow has accused the US of encouraging ISIS-K activity in Afghanistan.

END

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/

As we highlighted to you on many occasions: UK study finds no evidence face masks protect vulnerable against COVID

(Watson/SummitNews)

UK Study Finds “No Evidence” Face Masks Protect Vulnerable Against COVID

FRIDAY, APR 14, 2023 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Summit News,

A report published by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) found that “no evidence could be presented” to prove medical-grade face masks protected vulnerable people from COVID.

The study investigated whether so-called high quality masks such as N95, KN95 and FFP2 coverings helped protect vulnerable people in the community from catching the virus.

“The review did not identify any studies for inclusion, and so could provide no evidence to answer the research question,” the authors concluded.

“No studies matching the inclusion criteria were found, so no evidence could be presented.”

Well, there goes the narrative.

Prof Carl Heneghan, professor of evidence-based medicine at the University of Oxford, noted that it was a “significant failing” that there were virtually no high quality trials showing that face masks were effective at preventing infection.

“I do not understand why there’s been a lack of will to do high-quality trials in this area,” he told the Telegraph. “We have completely failed to address this issue and I actually consider that to be an issue that the [Covid] inquiry needs to look at.”

“If there’s another pandemic around the corner, we still haven’t addressed any of these issues. We’ve not learned anything,” Prof Heneghan added.

Despite there never being any conclusive evidence either way that masks work, their supposed effectiveness was entrenched from the early days of the pandemic (after health authorities initially told people not to wear them as they could exacerbate the situation).

Those who questioned the effectiveness of face masks were vilified by COVID cultists and banned by social media networks, while people who refused to wear them in public were humiliated and sometimes physically attacked.

The UK government later acknowledged that masks were more of a symbolic tool to remind everyone they were in a pandemic to keep fear levels high and guarantee greater obedience to lockdown rules.

A massive international research collaboration earlier this year that analyzed several dozen rigorous studies focusing on “physical interventions” against COVID-19 and influenza found that face masks provide little to no protection against infection or illness rates.

In a revealing study published by Frontiers in Psychology, it was found that people who consider themselves less attractive were more likely to continue wearing face masks.

That explains a hell of a lot.

./GLOBAL ISSUES:

END

GLOBAL ISSUES/

Change is coming faster than what is being seen

History tells us that America became powerful, becoming the consumer nation of the world.
This means the American Citizen became the dominant consumer of goods that the world produced. At the same time America was a leader in manufacturing and technology allowing the dictation of trade settlement means via the Federal Reserve Dollar. And many nations vied for the privilege of selling and obtaining those funds to be spent on building their own nations.

This is not true anymore. The removal of Russia off Swift as a means of communicating a trade settlement unleashed a series of events and actions that are cascading one upon another up ending all manner of norms and beliefs as a new order is sought in desired trade settlement and sharing of national labor wealth. This is occurring in a space beyond US hegemony reach or even understanding. At no time in history could such a more bungling crowd be helpful in accelerating events beyond their control or understanding. Leading to even a lesser role to be played in a changing future. In many ways, as America goes so does the rest of the Western world save for those who see or those whose eyes have been opened. For 4 hours Macron privately spoke with Xi where the real world was explained. Note, China really has no use for the WEF or American hegemony and in both cases their voices echo more loudly amongst those not willing to decouple and save themselves. The rest is sinking along with globalism in its old form. Giving way to new structures of trade and settlement and even hegemony. While altering wealth sharing or being reliant on old establishment norms and pillars of management for guidance.

Did you catch that Hungary has secured sufficient natural gas supply at prices well below what other EU countries can access? Think come winter they will not profit? It is why you hear early squeals on sanctions on EU members not toeing the line by the US crowd. Even now more and more American voices are being raised to question the Ship of fools. For now America is lost. And like Orban even Macron wants off the titanic of Western a sanctions to oblivion. The French have many issues to contend with that are not simple to fix.

Did you know that today in a very real sense of industrial capacity and output India is #2 behind China. Countries like Bangladesh are having entire industries sucked up by the India juggernaut. Much of the leather business has shifted to India where technology renders old ways silent and forgotten. This is even though India has many problems and challenges. Would it surprise you to learn that India will soon be on parity with China in importance for Russia buying not just a great deal of oil but LNG as well with a flotilla of boats being built by Russia. Think 260 various vessels. Meanwhile both Japan and Russia are racing their economies forward to stay in the race or future prosperity. And we cannot forget Indonesia who is motoring forward.

Within a year when real not fake GDP numbers come out, the top five nations will likely not include a single Western country. Think about this. Because going forward it will alter the Western role across the globe. Hegemony comes with both output and consumption as both lead to wealth creation and the longer term horizon for the West is not rosy.

END

/VACCINE IMPACT

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

You want to know what tyranny is? Look no further than New Zealand & it’s COVID lockdown lunacy insanity STILL! ‘New Zealand Extends Mandatory Coronavirus Quarantines Until 2024’

There is no, and never was any medical or scientific or clinical basis to mass test asymptomatic, to isolate asymptomatic people, to lockdown whole societies; madness then & madness today!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 14

Not because you could do it, means you do it! This is what drunk power is and looks like. IMO, the New Zealand people ‘like it so’. They remain a population very vulnerable.

‘New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins announced on Tuesday that a seven-day mandatory coronavirus quarantine period will be kept in place through the end of 2023 and possibly beyond.

Hipkins said his Cabinet performed a “difficult balancing act” and had to “weigh a number of things quite carefully” before deciding to keep the quarantine policy for people who test positive for Wuhan coronavirus infection.’

SOURCE:

https://www.breitbart.com/health/2023/04/12/new-zealand-extends-mandatory-coronavirus-quarantines-until-2024/

END

Srečko Šorli et al’s updated research looking at the UK’s COVID vaccine data clarify that there is Increased Mortality after COVID-19 Vaccination; Vaccinated infected groups appear to have higher

average mortality than their non-vaccinated infected counterparts.’; the mortality of the vaccinated coronavirus infected groups was 14.5% higher on average than the mortality of non-vaccinated

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 14

‘Calculations were performed for each of the following 5-4 week intervals: weeks 35-38 (2021), weeks 39-42 (2021), weeks 43-46 (2021), weeks 47-50 (2021), and weeks 50(2021)-1(2022).

The results obtained confirm that the mortality of the vaccinated coronavirus infected groups was 14.5% higher on average than the mortality of non-vaccinated coronavirus infected groups. Conclusion: Vaccinated infected groups appear to have higher average mortality than their non-vaccinated infected counterparts.’

Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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SOURCE:

Click to access forgotten-primum-non-nocere-and-increased-mortality-after–covid19-vaccination.pdf

Sub-variant COVID clade XBB.1.16 (aka Arcturus), the newest infectious clade shows no indications of severity, lethality etc.; so will the CDC, WHO & media stop the hyping and take a chill pill

To date, no change in severity etc. Reports are that in kids (or adults I have also heard of) there is additional conjunctivitis (itch, sticky eyes, redness) along with the routine COVID symptoms

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 13

There is no need for lockdowns, school closures, business closures, mask mandates…nothing.

Fear porn. Reports are that there is increased XBB.1.16 activity in India.

We know more and more infectious variants would emerge given the continual use of non-neutralizing COVID mRNA gene injections etc. while there is circulating pathogen; the result will be natural selective pressure on the antigen that would select for more infectious variants. Yes, there is a risk of a lethal one emerging…this is not one. Based on all reporting. Based on all we know. Children, healthy children continue to have a statistical zero risk of severe outcome or death from COVID or its variants. Nothing has changed.

END

SLAY NEWS

MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK//

end

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

Russian oil now exceeds $60.00 and let’s see if buyers will buy above the cap and expose the West’s bluff

(zerohedge)

Russian Oil Now Trades Consistently Above $60: Will The West Pretend Its Sanctions Are Still In Force

FRIDAY, APR 14, 2023 – 12:00 PM

Two weeks ago, in the aftermath of the surprise Saudi/OPEC production cut which took out well over 1 million barrels in supply from the market and sent the price of oil sharply higher, we warned that with Russian Urals oil about to rise above the western price cap threshold of $60, any further increases in its price mean that virtually everyone in the anti-Russian west would be cutoff from Putin’s oil if they were to follow the imposed sanctions (and not be exempted from them like, say, Japan).

Fast forward to today when Bloomberg’s Alaric Nightingale confirms that the average price of Russian oil has — effectively for the first time — risen above a cap that was imposed by the G-7 industrialized nations.

The International Energy Agency, upon whose data the G-7 relies when reviewing the threshold, said in its monthly oil-market report earlier on Friday that Russian oil has been above the cap level of $60 a barrel since April 5. Its numbers are based on three-day rolling averages, weighted by volumes of barrels shipped.

The cap was imposed on Dec. 5 and, in theory, that level was exceeded at around that time, the IEA’s data show.

However, the reason for the spike back then was a brief slump in loadings of Urals, Russia’s flagship grade. That artificially skewed the average because Urals is cheaper than other Russian varieties of oil.

The increase in price above $60 means both that the cap is starting to fail and also shows that traders, buyers and shippers are getting increasingly more comfortable with handling Russian barrels and flouting western sanctions. It also demonstrates that a large and surprising cut in oil output by members of the OPEC+ producer alliance boosted the prices that Russian barrels are fetching (just as Russia and OPEC+ intended).

While Urals, Russia’s top export stream, remains just around $60 the weighted average of just $60 is well below international benchmarks. The US Treasury has long argued that its goal was to ensure Russian oil trades at discounts, not that there should be a strict adherence to the cap, which clearly is no longer working.

As Nightingale concludes, the surpassing of the cap is interesting. Urals itself has been trading higher and higher, surpassing $60 a barrel, a price where buyers would no longer be able access western services — especially insurance and shipping — for any Russian trade, or they’d have to give their service providers attestations that would ring alarm bells in the compliance departments of insurance companies.

The fact that Urals is now trading above $60 suggests that yet another bluff by the increasingly more powerless west has been called.

end

Expect more of pirating!

(zerohedge)

Oil Tanker Vanishes After Pirates Board Off West Africa

FRIDAY, APR 14, 2023 – 08:25 AM

Singapore-flagged oil tanker Success 9 is missing off the coast of Africa after a suspected pirate attack, reported Bloomberg.

On Monday, approximately 300 nautical miles off the coast of Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire, the automatic identification system (AIS) transmission for Success 9 went down.

Owners of Success 9 have been unable to contact the ship since it was boarded Monday night off Ivory Coast, according to a statement from the government of Singapore, where the vessel is registered. The incident is being treated as an act of piracy, according to General Boniface Konan, director of the maritime security center for West Africa, known as Cresmao. — Bloomberg

Here are the last seven days of the vessel’s AIS data:

The Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA) said approximately 20 crew from various nationalities, including a Singapore citizen, are on board.

“MPA is working closely with the ship owner, Monrovia Regional Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre and the Information Fusion Centre at the Changi Command and Control Centre to monitor the situation and render the necessary assistance.”

The maritime news website gCaptain said this incident comes just weeks after the Dutch-owned tanker Monjasa Reformer was commandeered by pirates off the coast of the Republic of Congo in March.

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.1052 UP.0000

USA/ YEN 132.67 UP 0.198 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2495 DOWN 0.0030

USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3332 DOWN .0009 (CDN DOLLAR UP 9 PTS)

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 19.79 PTS OR .60%

Hang Seng CLOSED UP 94.33 PTS OR .46%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .53% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 94.33 PTS OR .46 %

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 19.79 PTS OR .60%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.53%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 336.50 PTS OR 1.20%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 2033.80

silver:$25.97

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 100.72 UP 3 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s close.

FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 11: 00 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.276% UP 5 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.456 % DOWN 0 AND 0//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.472 UP 6 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.284 UP 7 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.436 UP 7 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0983 DOWN 0.0060 or 60 basis points

USA/Japan: 133,72 UP 1.2355 OR YEN DOWN 124 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2415 DOWN .01090 OR 109 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0034 OR 34 BASIS pts to 1.3373

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN.(6.8711)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.8736

TURKISH LIRA: 19.37 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.456…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 8 in basis points from THURSDAY at 3.526% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 3.738 UP 5 IN BASIS POINTS

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.1095% UP 13 in basis points.

USA dollar index, 101.32 UP .64 in basis points ON THE DAY/1.00 PM

Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates FRIDAY: 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 28.53 points or .26%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 78.04 PTS OR .50%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 38.78 PTS OR 0.52%

Spain IBEX UP 52.90 PTS OR .57%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 245.64 PTS OR 0.89%

WTI Oil price 82.60 12: EST

Brent Oil: 86.42. 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /// DOWN TO: 81.40/ ROUBLE UP 0 AND 55//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3645 UP 7

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.5990 UP 3 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0994 DOWN 0.0057 OR 57 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2414 DOWN 01094 or 109 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.6840% UP 9 BASIS PTS

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 133.76 UP 1.278 //YEN DOWN 128 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3370 UP .0030 CDN dollar, DOWN 30 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 82.68

Brent OIL: 86.37

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 7 BASIS pts to 3.517%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS PTS to 3.737%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 12 PTS AT 4.0989%

USA dollar index: 101.25 UP 50 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.36

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 81.79 DOWN 0 AND 37/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE:DOWN 144.38 PTS OR 0.42%

NASDAQ 100 DOWN 29.98 PTS OR 0.23%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 17,19 DOWN 0.61 PTS (3.43)%

GLD: $186.36 DOWN 3.36 OR 1.27%

SLV/ $23.31 DOWN 0.43 OR 1.81%

end

USA AFFAIRS

1 a) USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

Hawkish FedSpeak & Stagflation Scares Spark Big Reversal In Markets

FRIDAY, APR 14, 2023 – 04:01 PM

UMich inflation expectations re-surged, retail sales were a disaster, and manufacturing production plunged… but apart from that stagflationary set-up, everything is awesome (because headline industrial production rose more than expected, core retail sales was a smidge less terrible than expected, and headline UMich sentiment improved).

It was a hard week for both ‘soft’ data and ‘real’ data as they both showed serial disappointment (a positive for some assets in the case of inflation signals) but overall, ‘hope’ – the spread between hard and soft data – is at its lowest since March 2001…

Source: Bloomberg

Amid all that, traders shifted their short-term views on The Fed hawkishly, spurred on by the UMich inflation exp spike and The Fed’s Waller who made it clear there was more ‘pain’ to come:

“Because financial conditions have not significantly tightened, the labor market continues to be strong and quite tight, and inflation is far above target, so monetary policy needs to be tightened further,”

He is not wrong…financial conditions are easing and that’s not what The Fed wants…

Source: Bloomberg

The odds of a 25bs hike in May now up to 85% – almost back to pre-SVB levels…

Source: Bloomberg

US equities ended the week mixed with the Nasdaq basically unchanged and The Dow outperforming (these are changes from Friday’s early futures close). The day was a bit chaotic as hawkish comments (and data) battled bonanza bank earnings (BA and UNH weighed the Dow down -177pts opposing GS and JPM’s gains +90pts)…

The early ugliness in stocks (QQQ below) was led by negative delta 0DTE traders’ flow which turned at the key gamma strike level and dropped all the way down to the Hedge Wall before rebounding…

Source: SpotGamma

Banks dominated today’s price action after earnings and along with energy stocks were the week’s winners. Utes and real estate were the ugliest horses in the glue factory…

Source: Bloomberg

With JPM up over 7% today (and C soaring too)…

Source: Bloomberg

But as the big banks soared, the small banks pushed back to the post-SVB lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Another week with a big divergence between defensives (lower) and cyclicals (higher)… which is odd given the hawkish shift in rates…

Source: Bloomberg

Both Equity (VIX) and bond (MOVE) implied vol plunged this week with the former trading with a 17 handle – its lowest since Jan ’22. Bond vol is still significantly elevated but has come down dramatically…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields surged today dragging the entire curve higher on the week – in an oddly uniform manner (all maturities up 10-12bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y yield spiked today back above 4.00% to its highest since the start of April…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rebounded off the February lows today, reversing much of the week’s losses BUT still down for the 5th week in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto had a good week with Bitcoin holding above $30,000 (hitting $31k overnight)…

Source: Bloomberg

But Ethereum was the biggest winner, soaring above $2100 after the hard fork FUD failed to show up…

Source: Bloomberg

For context, ETH notably underperformed BTC into the fork then ripped back to one-month highs relative to BTC after…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was having a great week, rallying up to near record highs before today’s news sent the precious plummeting back below $2000. However, late in the day, spot gold rallied back above that Maginot Line…

Oil rallied for the 4th straight week with WTI closing above $82.50 – the highest weekly close since early Nov ’22…

Finally, and most ominously, the sovereign credit risk of the USA soared to a record high this week…

Source: Bloomberg

But hey, it’s probably nothing…

END

.i b Morning trading:

Early morning trading:

II) USA DATA//

retail sales which includes inflation slides more than expected and growing it at weakest annual pace.

The USA economy is in big trouble

(zerohedge)

Retail Sales Slide More Than Expected, Grow At Weakest Annual Pace Since June 2020

FRIDAY, APR 14, 2023 – 08:51 AM

Yesterday, when previewing today’s closely watched retail sales prints, we shared the latest card data tracking data from Bank of America which predicted a much sharper than expected drop, expecting a 0.8% drop in the headline print and a -1.0% drop in the ex autos number.

And, as usual, Bank of America was right (even if the numbers were flipped) with the headline and retail sales-ex autos (measured nominally) coming in as the bank predicted, and roughly twice as bad as consensus had expected, even though the core retail sales and control group (retail sales ex autos, gas, building materials and restaurants) beat modestly despite also printing red.

Retail Sales -1.0%, Exp. -0.4%
Retail Sales ex Auto -0.8%, Exp. -0.4%
Retail Sales ex Autos and Gas -0.3%, Exp. -0.6%
Retail Sales control group -0.3%, Exp. -0.5%

What is concerning is that retail sales rose just 2.9% Y/Y: this was the lowest annual rise in retail sales since June 2020.

Looking at the components, the biggest drop by far was in gasoline stations which is the result of the drop in gas prices in March, which have however since rebounded strongly. Additionally, we saw a big drop in motor vehicle stores, furniture, clothing, food & beverage, general merchandise, and of particular note, electronics and appliance stores, which have had a very rough time since the pandemic. Also note the -10.3% drop in nominal retail sales for the category: when adjusted for inflation this means that retail sales for electronics are plunging more than 15% in real times.

Bottom line: the ‘lag’ from monetary policy, coupled with the hit to spending following the bank crisis is starting to catch up.

end

This sent gold/silver down: Fed’s Waller sends the month of May interest rates odds surging

(zerohedge)

Hawkish Comments From Fed’s Waller Send May Rate Hike Odds Surging

FRIDAY, APR 14, 2023 – 09:17 AM

The Fed schizophrenia was on full display this morning when two days after the latest FOMC minutes showed that the Fed is now expecting a recession in the second half, and moments after the latest retail sales print showed the weakest growth in nominal retail sales in three years, Fed Governor Christopher Waller (a Trump appointee) broke with such recent doves as Austan Goolsbee who earlier this week said the Fed should slow down and evaluate the damage from the bank crisis, and said that he favored more monetary policy tightening to reduce persistently high inflation, although he said he was prepared to adjust his stance if needed if credit tightens more than expected.

“Because financial conditions have not significantly tightened, the labor market continues to be strong and quite tight, and inflation is far above target, so monetary policy needs to be tightened further,” Waller said Friday in a speech in San Antonio, Texas. “How much further will depend on incoming data on inflation, the real economy, and the extent of tightening credit conditions.”

A string of bank collapses last month has added new uncertainty to the outlook this year. Waller said he viewed bank stresses as easing, though he also said he wasn’t sure how much credit tightening would result from the troubles.

“All else equal, a significant tightening of credit conditions could obviate the need for some additional monetary policy tightening, but making such a judgment is difficult, especially in real time,” Waller said.

Ironically, at exactly the same time, Citi CFO Mark Mason was speaking on the bank’s earnings call saying that, well…. read it for yourselves:

*MASON: CITI HAS TIGHTENED CREDIT UNDERWRITING IN CONSUMER LOANS

Waller however plowed on undeterred: “I would welcome signs of moderating demand, but until they appear and I see inflation moving meaningfully and persistently down toward our 2% target, I believe there is still work to do.”

The Fed governor said he took no comfort in this week’s consumer price report showing inflation dropping to 5% as he focused on core inflation, excluding food and energy, which has shown little progress.

“I interpret these data as indicating that we haven’t made much progress on our inflation goal, which leaves me at about the same place on the economic outlook that I was at the last FOMC meeting, and on the same path for monetary policy,” he said. It isn’t clear if Waller will demand pushing rates higher until core inflation is exactly at 2%, even if it means double digit Fed Funds rates.

The Fed governor repeated his view that monetary policy will need to remain tight “for a substantial period of time, and longer than markets anticipate,” but also cautioned uncertainty is high.

“There are still more than two weeks until the next FOMC meeting, and I stand ready to adjust my stance based on what we learn about the economy, including about lending conditions,” he said.

In retrospect, Waller’s comments were not all that surprising: Fed policymakers have penciling in one additional quarter-point hike this year, and markets are pricing in the likelihood of a final rate increase on May 3, although the modest CPI miss and yesterday’s huge PPI miss trimmed odds of a May hike; still most Fed officials who have spoken have highlighted the need to do more to return price gains to their 2% target. And sure enough, moments after Waller’s prepared remarks hit, the market implied odds of a May rate hike spiked from 70% earlier this morning to as high as 89% before easing modestly.

Waller’s prepared remarks were shared before release of Friday’s retail sales data and come amid some increasing signs of differences of opinion by policymakers, amid the central bank’s staff forecast of a mild recession.

end

Not worth the paper it is printed on

(zerohedge)

Industrial Production Beats After Near-Record Surge In Utility Output To Heat March Freeze

FRIDAY, APR 14, 2023 – 09:41 AM

On the surface today’s Industrial Production number was solid, coming in at 0.4%, double the expected 0.2%, and following an upward revised 0.2% (from 0.0%), it certainly put a dent in expectations for an imminent recession, or so one would think.

That’s because the number is only “solid” until one reads the fine print, because all of the upside was due to a near record surge in Utility output, up some 8.4% M/M, as the return to more seasonal weather after a mild February sent the demand for heating soaring. Meanwhile both Manufacturing output and Mining shrank by 0.5%, confirming that the economic slowdown is indeed coming. Furthermore, the Mining component is now down 4 of the past 5 months.

Some more details on the all important Manufacturing output data:

Manufacturing output decreased 0.5 percent in March and was 1.1 percent below its year-earlier level. For the first quarter as a whole, the manufacturing sector edged up 0.3 percent at an annual rate. The indexes for durable manufacturing and nondurable manufacturing moved down 0.9 percent and 0.1 percent in March, respectively, while the index for other manufacturing (publishing and logging) fell 0.7 percent. Most durables industries posted losses; wood products posted the largest drop, of 2.9 percent, followed by nonmetallic mineral products, which fell 2.6 percent. Within nondurables, gains of at least 1 percent were registered by apparel and leather and by petroleum and coal products; chemicals posted the largest loss, at 0.9 percent.

Turning to mining output, the number dropped 0.5 percent in March, with declines in the indexes for oil and gas extraction, other mining, and support activities.

Finally, as noted above, the output of utilities jumped 8.4 percent, with advances for both electric and natural gas utilities on the back of a surge in heating demand.

Confirming the ongoing slowdown, capacity utilization for manufacturing moved down 0.5 percentage point in March to 78.1 percent, a rate that is 0.1 percentage point below its long-run average. The operating rate for mining fell 0.5 percentage point to 91.1 percent, while the operating rate for utilities jumped 5.6 percentage points to 75.3 percent. The rate for mining was 4.7 percentage points above its long-run average, while the rate for utilities remained substantially below its long-run average.

Overall, if the Fed is hoping its actions will push the economy into a recession, today’s IP data confirms as much.

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

Boeing in trouble again

(zerohedge)

Boeing Tumbles On Fresh Max Woes: Faulty Part Found On “Significant Number Of Undelivered 737 Max Planes”

FRIDAY, APR 14, 2023 – 07:20 AM

Boeing Co. had just turned the corner with a surge in quarterly deliveries, surpassing rival Airbus SE for the first time in nearly five years. However, this week it was revealed that parts had been installed incorrectly on the plane maker’s top-selling 737 Max jets, resulting in a production issue and causing some deliveries to be placed on hold.

Boeing expects a significant impact on near-term deliveries of the 737 MAX 7, 737 MAX 8, and MAX 8-200 jets, as well as the P-8 military reconnaissance planes.

According to Barron’s, a statement was sent via email by a spokesperson from the company, who explained the issue:

“A supplier has notified us that a nonstandard manufacturing process was used during the installation of two fittings in the aft fuselage section of certain [737 MAX] airplanes, creating the potential for a nonconformance to required specifications.

“This is not an immediate safety of flight issue and the in-service fleet can continue operating safely. However, the issue will likely affect a significant number of undelivered 737 MAX airplanes, both in production and in storage.”

Boeing further stated that the Federal Aviation Administration had been notified about production issues and that efforts are underway to examine and replace faulty parts.

Bloomberg identified Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. as the supplier of the nonconforming parts.

Shares of Boeing slid more than 5% in premarket trading in New York, and shares of Spirit AeroSystems tumbled 11.5%.

Max issues have been a concern to investors, given that the aircraft was grounded globally from March 2019 to November 2020 after two fatal crashes occurred within five months of each other, killing 346 people.

It remains to be seen whether the production issue will have a meaningful impact on Boeing’s plan to increase 737 production. The problem doesn’t immediately affect the safety of planes in service with airlines.

For more color on the situation, Bloomberg Intelligence said:

“The stoppage is concerning given the airplane is vital to Boeing’s turnaround. Its importance likely means a remedy will be urgently pursued, though reworking it could be costly and an extended pause would significantly hurt commercial profit, cash generation and the balance sheet.

“We have processes in place to address these of types of production issues upon identification, which we are following,” Spirit said in a separate statement. “Spirit is working to develop an inspection and repair for the affected fuselages,” George Ferguson, BI aerospace industry analyst, wrote.

Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu told clients:

“There is an investigative process along with determining the root cause and remedy, which could have an unknown timeline to complete.”

And Truist analyst Michael Ciarmoli wrote:

“The Boeing news comes as a negative surprise, analyst Michael Ciarmoli writes, given the expectation of Max production-rate increases in the near term.”

Ciarmoli added:

“Spirit AeroSystems will be the most impacted, and analyst expects the entire sector to be under pressure.”

Another production quality and standards issue will further erode Boeing’s credibility and trustworthiness.

Several years ago, NYT obtained emails from Boeing employees who said, “This airplane is designed by clowns, who are in turn supervised by monkeys.”

Oh yeah, and there’s this…

end

A Record 30% Of San Francisco Office Space Is Vacant

FRIDAY, APR 14, 2023 – 10:40 AM

Here come the vacancies…

A sobering report from Coldwell Banker (available to pro subs in the usual place) reveals that San Francisco’s office vacancy rate hit a record high of 29.4%, as net absorption (total new square footage leased minus the total square footage of vacated space) registered -1.56 million sq. ft.

To that end, software giant Salesforce has put the last of its San Francisco office space up for sublease as part of its January plan to lay off approximately 7,000 employees and reduce office space, SF Gate reports.

According to the report, six floors at 350 Mission St. (Salesforce East) – the top four floors and the fifth and sixth floors – which encompass more than 104,000 square feet, are now up for sublease, according to real estate giant Cushman and Wakefield. The space comes with amenities such as a “fully functional coffee bar,” board rooms, and “high-end” presentation floors.

Salesforce’s intention to cut back on its San Francisco real estate footprint has been evident since even before the dramatic January announcement. Within the past year, the company — San Francisco’s largest private employer — has listed half of its space at Salesforce West at 350 Fremont St. for sublease and six floors at Salesforce Tower, in addition to the Slack headquarters move. In 2021, Salesforce listed half of its footprint in Salesforce East. -SF Gate

“Over the past two years, we have continued to re-imagine our real estate strategy,” said CFO Amy Weaver, adding that the company’s reassessment of their real estate footprint is ongoing. “That is not only to optimize for scale but also continue hybrid work environment and how people are working and how they’re using their space.”

The move is in-line with current industry trends, as big tech firms cut workers and office space – despite CEOs such as Salesforce’s Marc Benioff pushing post-pandemic return-to-office policies.

According to the CBRE report, “Businesses are challenged with macroeconomic headwinds, including tech industry layoffs, rising interest rates, banking industry uncertainty, and recession risk.”

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, San Francisco had a near 100% occupation rate throughout the city due to the latest tech boom, as the vacancy rate in 2019 grew from 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2019 to 24.1% at the end of 2022.

end

70% Of Americans Are Financially Stressed, 58% Live Paycheck-To-Paycheck

FRIDAY, APR 14, 2023 – 03:40 PM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

A pair of CNBC surveys show increasing financial stress in the US. The Fed predicts more of it and I am sure the Fed is correct.

CNBC Surveys

“People are worried that the money they’ve saved won’t last and are worried they’re going to have to lean more on their credit cards and other sources of debt just to get by,” said Bruce McClary, a senior vice president at the National Foundation for Credit Counseling.

Cost of Shelter Still Rising Sharply

Shelter Costs Surge Again

For 14 consecutive months, the cost of shelter has risen at least 0.5 percent from the preceding month.

For discussion, please see The Tame March CPI Numbers Deceive as the Price of Rent Surges Again

Shelter Notes

Shelter comprises 34.47 percent of the CPI
Rent of primary residence is standard rent (not owner occupied), unfurnished without utilities.
Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER), is the estimated price one would pay to rent one’s own house, unfurnished and without utilities. It is the single largest CPI component at 25.41 percent.
The shelter index increased 8.2 percent over the last year, accounting for over 60 percent of the total increase in all items less food and energy.

Consumers Are Having a Much Harder Time Getting Credit Than a Year Ago

Data from the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations for March, chart by Mish

A New York Fed survey shows Consumers Are Having a Much Harder Time Getting Credit Than a Year Ago

What’s Going On?

The inverted yield curve and QT act to restrict lending
Banks are fearful of a recession and credit losses
All the banks that leveraged into duration are suffering mark-to-market losses on their Treasury and MBS portfolios. The banks know this (and knew this even before Silicon Valley Bank was taken over).

Fed Minutes Now Predict a Recession This Year Along With Higher Unemployment

Please note Fed Minutes Now Predict a Recession This Year Along With Higher Unemployment

The Fed forecasts a recession, calls for higher unemployment and below trend growth, with risks to the downside.

The staff’s projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years.

The unemployment rate was projected to rise above the staff’s estimate of its natural rate early next year.

The Fed has never predicted a recession in advance. Is this a first or has a recession already started?

Perhaps you think there won’t be a recession. Those 58% living paycheck to paycheck, sure hope hope there won’t be one.

Meanwhile, President Biden is doing everything humanely possible with regulations, energy mandates, and support for unions to create more inflation.

The dilemma for the Fed, and it’s a huge one, is that credit conditions are very deflationary, but the economic policies of this administration coupled with trade wars everywhere are very inflationary.

* * *

USA COVID//

END

SWAMP STORIES

Trump Sues Former Lawyer Michael Cohen For $500 Million

FRIDAY, APR 14, 2023 – 07:35 AM

Authored by Gary Bai via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours)

Former President Donald Trump filed on Wednesday a civil complaint against his former lawyer Michael Cohen for more than $500 million in damages resulting from Cohen’s alleged breach of his attorney-client duties with Trump, unjust enrichment, and other causes, a Trump spokesperson confirmed with The Epoch Times.

“The lawsuit and the many wrongdoings by Michael Cohen—a convicted felon—stand for themselves, and have been admitted to by Cohen himself through his falsehood-filled books, podcasts, and constant media appearances,” a Trump spokesperson wrote to The Epoch Times in a statement. The lawsuit (pdf) was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida on Tuesday.

Cohen’s conduct after his 12-year attorney-client relationship with Trump ending in 2018 consisted of “multiple breaches of fiduciary duty, unjust enrichment, conversion, and breaches of contract,” as well as “spreading falsehoods” about Trump that would likely be “embarrassing or detrimental,” the lawsuit alleges.

Trump’s lawsuit seeks relief that is “expected to substantially exceed” $500 million in damages and requests a jury trial.

The civil lawsuit is legally unrelated to the Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s criminal case against the former president, but Cohen’s public statements about the case leading up to Bragg’s indictment against the former president are cited as supporting facts in the complaint. Bragg’s indictment is centered on a payment Trump allegedly made to Stormy Daniels, an adult film actress, via Cohen.

Cohen was Trump’s attorney from 2006 to 2018 and was a vice president of the Trump Organization. He was convicted of federal charges related to campaign finance violations in 2018, in connection with arranging payments to Daniels and another woman claiming to have had an affair with Trump. Cohen served a prison sentence from May 2019 to July 2020 for these charges. Trump denied having an affair with either woman or making the payment.

After the relationship between Trump and Cohen ended, Trump’s Tuesday filing states, Cohen committed “an onslaught of fiduciary and contractual breaches against [Trump] by making numerous inflammatory and false statements” about Trump.

For example, the filing states that Cohen breached fiduciary duties when he revealed Trump’s confidences and spread falsehoods about Trump via “public statements, including the publication of two books, a podcast series, and innumerable mainstream media appearances.”

Cohen’s 2020 book titled “Disloyal: A Memoir: The True Story of the Formal Personal Attorney to President Donald J. Trump,” is another example of this breach of duty, the filing reads, as the book revealed confidential information about the plaintiff and thereby violated a confidentiality agreement between Trump and Cohen.

“Joe Biden Is A Criminal” Says Ex-Obama Whistleblower Alleging Family “Kickback Scheme”

FRIDAY, APR 14, 2023 – 09:05 AM

A former staffer who worked in the Obama administration is blowing the whistle on the Bidens – and has accused President Biden of being involved in a “kickback scheme” directly related to his son Hunter’s overseas business dealings.

Mike McCormick, a stenographer in the White House for 15 years who worked with Biden from 2011 to 2017, told Fox & Friends First that the FBI has completely ignored him despite his willingness to testify under oath before the grand jury investigating Hunter.

“In February, I went to the FBI and filed one of their tips on their website. If you do that, and you’re lying to them, you go to jail. I’m not lying. I’m telling the truth, and I’m not going to jail,” McCormick said on Thursday. “Joe Biden is a criminal. He was conducting malfeasance in office to enrich his family. Jake Sullivan is a conspirator in that, and there’s more… Obama officials involved in it, I believe.”

McCormick specifically noted a key dialogue involving then-VP Biden, aide Jake Sullivan and the press on Air Force Two before an April 21, 2014 trip to Kyiv, Ukraine, in which Sullivan – now Biden’s national security adviser – outlined a US investment in the Ukrainian energy sector just days after Hunter joined the board of Burisma.

Months after the trip, Congress allocated $50 million to Ukraine’s energy market.

“I’m sitting back there with a tape recorder. Jake Sullivan comes back and somebody asks about fracking. His answer is, well, we’re bringing a lot of American assistance over for fracking. Burisma was the direct beneficiary of that fracking, and that’s what I recorded, and that’s in a White House transcript,” said McCormick, adding: “In the transcript, you don’t know who Jake Sullivan is. It’s a senior administration official. I’m the witness that says Jake Sullivan is the guy who said it and he should be investigated because at the time Hunter Biden was on the board of Burisma and Joe Biden is bringing American taxpayer money to enrich that company and himself and his family.”

Hunter joined the board of the Ukrainian natural gas firm on April 18, just three days before Biden and his team traveled to Kyiv. But that critical piece of the puzzle was not made public until May 12.

McCormick argued the timeline of the events suggests that Biden funneled American money overseas to “enrich” himself and his family, and used his own influence to aid his son’s rookie energy career.

The former stenographer made it clear he wants to present the information under oath before the grand jury in Delaware probing Hunter’s business dealings, which is led by U.S. Attorney David Weiss. –Fox News

A federal probe into Hunter Biden’s suspected tax and foreign lobbying violations began in 2018, after banks filed dozens of suspicious activity reports (SARs) regarding foreign transactions that were flagged. Some of the SARs involved money funneled from “China and other foreign nations,” sources close to the probe tell Fox.

“If David Weiss can’t have me in front of his grand jury explaining what I know as a witness, that’s a fraudulent grand jury,” said McCormick. “It’s a fraudulent use of the American judicial system to cover for Barack Obama and Joe Biden’s crimes in office.”

McCormick says the information he has incriminates Biden – and likely other officials, in connection with the alleged influence peddling scandal.

“If I went in there, I would tell them to have Barack Obama called in as a witness because he’s part of the conspiracy. He’s an ex-president. He has to answer who was in charge of this, putting Joe Biden into this role? Did Barack Obama know about it?” he continued.

“There’s evidence I’ve seen and put in my Substack on April 16th, so two days before Hunter joins Joe Biden is with Hunter in the West Wing. They have a meeting, and then later that day in the evening, Joe Biden spends a day in the limousine in the back of Barack Obama’s limousine in western Pennsylvania.”

END

Robert H to us;

“THIS IS IMPEACHABLE”—BIDEN BUSTED—He Removed President Trump’s Executive Privilege in Order to Raid Mar-a-Lago to Cover-Up His Own Illegal Possession of Classified Docs – Def-Con News

The only way forward is Military, as there is no other way and it has been so for a long time. Especially since all civil administrative services are compromised. The whole thing is a rotten mess.
The real question is whether the military not compromised is capable. And whether enough Americans have woken up to what is really happening to their country and their lives to support a cleanup.

https://defconnews.com/2023/04/13/this-is-impeachable-biden-busted-he-removed-president-trumps-executive-privilege-in-order-to-raid-mar-a-lago-to-cover-up-his-own-illegal-possession-of-classified-docs/

THE KING REPORT

The King Report April 14, 2023 Issue 6989

Independent View of the News

Due to a 6.4% m/m decline in energy, US March PPI is -0.5% m/m and +2.7% y/y; 0.0% m/m and 3.0% y/y were expected. Core PPI is -0.1% m/m and +3.4% y/y; +0.2% m/m and 3.4% y/y were consensus.

Initial Jobless Claims 239k, 235k expected, 228k prior
Continuing Jobless Claims 1.81m, 1.833m expected, 1.823m prior

@DowdEdward: We are looking at a structural budget deficit of $2 trillion for 2023 even before recession comes in earnest and tax receipts fall.  Yellen told @SenRonJohnson a few weeks ago that the CBO was projecting $17 trillion in deficits over 10 years well add $3 trillion to that number. What’s a few trillion between friends?

Biden moves to expand Obamacare and Medicaid for Dreamers (More spending on non-US citizens!)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-moves-to-expand-obamacare-and-medicaid-for-dreamers-154055606.html

ESMs and USMs commenced vertical rallies minutes before US March PPI was released. These early explosive rallies a minute or two prior to release of US economic data have occurred repeatedly.

ESMs soared from 4119.00 at 8:28 ET to 4137.75 within seconds. ESMs then retreated to 4124.50 by the NYSE opening. ESMs and stock gyrated wildly until they broke higher near 10:00 ET. ESMs then soared to a daily high of 4145.25 at 10:16 ET. At the time, Fangs and techs were up sharply on buying for next week’s Q1 results. The DJTA was down over 1%. USMs were up a relatively modest 11 ticks.

USMs commenced their explosive rally at 8:18 ET. USMs hit a peak of 133 1/32 (131 30/32 low) at 9:48 ET. Then, in a replay of the response to March CPI on Wednesday, USMs declined sharply. By the European close, USMs had fallen to 132 6/32.

Mr. Bond understands that the jiggy March PPI and CPI reports were due solely to large declines in energy prices, but gasoline and oil prices have soared since the March lows – and Saudi Arabia is intent on punishing Biden for driving oil prices lower with SPR sales and reneging on a vow to replenish the SPR by the US Midterm Elections in November 2022.

OPEC cites risks to summer oil outlook as backdrop to shock cut
OPEC on Thursday flagged downside risks to summer oil demand as part of the backdrop to output cuts announced this month by OPEC+ producers… https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-cites-risks-summer-oil-outlook-holds-demand-forecast-2023-04-13/?taid=64381a213a982f00019a07c3

ESMs and stocks hit minor new daily highs about 10 minutes after the European close. The rally momentum peaked near 15:00 ET. ESMs then traded sideways, in choppy action, into the close.

After Europe closed, USMs tried to rally. After a modest jump, USMs rolled over to new lows.

Manhattan rents reach all-time high at $4,175 per month as exodus continues (YTD 10k to Florida)
https://nypost.com/2023/04/13/manhattan-median-rents-reach-an-all-time-high-of-4175-month/

Positive aspects of previous session
ESMs and USMs surged before and immediately after the release of the March PPI Report
Fangs and techs led the rally on buying for Q1 results that commence next week

Negative aspects of previous session
The DJTA declined; the dollar got crushed; gold (2054.30 close) and Bitcoin soared
USMs peaked at 9:48 ET and then tumbled

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
What does Mr. Bond fear or know that equity jockeys don’t?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Down

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4131.96
Previous session High/Low: 4150.26; 4099.40

Brazil’s Lula calls for end to dollar trade dominance
Leftist president lends his voice to Beijing’s efforts to boost renminbi’s role in global commerce
https://www.ft.com/content/669260a5-82a5-4e7a-9bbf-4f41c54a6143

@washingtonpost: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva risks alienating the U.S. and Europe as he hosts Iranian warships, equivocates over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and negotiates with China.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-west-hoped-lula-would-be-a-partner-he-s-got-his-own-plans/ar-AA19NHYV

Team Obama-Biden aligned with Lula over Bolsonaro, who aligned with Trump. Some suggest that Team Obama-Biden interfered in the Brazilian Presidential Election to aid Lula, who Schiffs on the US.

Adviser to 6 POTUS Harald Malmgren @Halsrethink: It is hard to understand why WH and SecState had any reason to think Lula would be friendly to US policies. His first days talked of praise for Cuba and hero Maduro. Now his priority is closer China ties. No surprise to anyone except Biden aides.

How Team Biden Tried to Coup-Proof Brazil’s Elections
Sunday’s election in Brazil will be a test for more than Jair Bolsonaro’s integrity.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/28/brazil-elections-bolsonaro-democracy-biden/

Biden vows ‘cooperation’ with Brazil’s far-left corrupt socialist   October 31, 2022
President Biden over the weekend sent out a message of congratulations to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva for beating Brazil’s incumbent president, Jair Bolsonaro, in a widely watched runoff election. Think about that. Biden congratulated a hard-core socialist who served 19 months in prison on corruption charges — over a conservative who was backed by Donald Trump. This is how radical America’s Democratic Party has become.  https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/oct/31/joe-biden-vows-cooperation-brazils-far-left-corrup/

New Details Emerge Over ‘Mistake’ That Led to Bud Light’s Paid Marketing Engagement with Trans Influencer – “No one at the senior level” of the company was aware of Bud Light’s polarizing partnership with Dylan Mulvaney, sources close to the situation claim… But according to an insider cited by the Daily Wire, the partnership was undertaken by ‘some low-level marketing staffer who helps manage the hundreds of influencer engagements they do…  https://www.dailywire.com/news/new-details-emerge-over-mistake-that-led-to-bud-lights-paid-marketing-engagement-with-trans-influencer

@TheChiefNerd: Robert F Kennedy Jr on How JFK Stopped the Operation Northwoods False Flag Attack Which Ultimately Led to His Death (Chilling interview that details JCOS attempt to start nuclear war with USSR while the US had the advantage [estimated 130m USSR deaths vs 30m US deaths]; view that US intel’s main function is to foment global conflicts to enrich, as Ike warned, the US military-industrial complex.) https://twitter.com/TheChiefNerd/status/1646341960024707072

In 1962 the Joint Chiefs of Staff proposed Operation Northwoods, terrorist attacks and bombings against US citizens that would be blamed on Castro and foster public support for an invasion of Cuba. Kill Americans to foment war?! What other false flag operations have been perpetrated against US citizens?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods#:~:text=Operation%20Northwoods%20was%20a%20proposed,United%20States%20government%20in%201962.

Texas dairy explosion leaves at least 18,000 cattle dead, 1 person critically injured https://t.co/yaBgoZ01mX

Why have there been so many fires and explosions at US food-related businesses? Is it sabotage?

GOP senators preparing for McConnell retirement (as GOP leader & senator, term ends in 2024; old guard GOP Senators are sucking up to conservatives to procure the votes to be GOP Senate leader.)
https://thespectator.com/topic/gop-senators-prepare-mitch-mcconnell-retirement/

WaPo: Russia says China agreed to secretly provide weapons, leaked documents show
China approved “provision of lethal aid” to Russia in its war in Ukraine earlier this year and planned to disguise military equipment as civilian items, according to a U.S. intercept of Russian intelligence revealed in leaked secret documents…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/13/russia-china-weapons-leaked-documents-discord/

@nytimes: The FBI arrested Jack Teixeira, 21, an air national guardsman, in the leak of U.S. documents revealing Ukraine war secrets. Here are the latest updates: https://nyti.ms/3MGY6TP

Arrest of classified documents leak suspect Jack Teixeira met with outrage: ‘Incompetence is stunning’ – Teixeira had the highest-level security clearance granted by the federal government for top secret information… “The idea that a 21-year-old kid can expose sources and methods of how we spy, how we have penetrated the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, because apparently we’ve exposed the fact we know they have a new hypersonic missile that can reach the United States, that they exposed our penetration of the Russian Defense Ministry, that could affect the war in Ukraine. the incompetence is stunning…It was some kid trying to show off to his friends in a gaming chat room…”
https://www.foxnews.com/media/arrest-classified-documents-leak-suspect-jack-teixeira-met-outrage-incompetence-stunning

U.S. Intel Leak Suggests Ukraine Ship is Sinking (Political price for $140B+ down the drain?)
“There is no clear path towards a decisive victory for either Russia or Ukraine… In addition, the documents also provide more evidence that the United States cannot continue to sustain its current level of military support for Ukraine for much longer—we are simply running out of ammunition to give them and our industrial base cannot keep up with current levels of munition expenditures,”…
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/u-s-intel-leak-suggests-ukraine-ship-is-sinking/

Top Republican on intelligence committee demands to know why Discord chatroom leak went unnoticed… ‘posting top secret documents since LAST YEAR’  https://trib.al/VWXaAKi

Fed Balance Sheet: -$17.587B; Repos -$10.0B; Loans -$11.362B; Accrued Interest +$3.603B

Today –Big banks begin reporting results. As we keep harping, most traders are exceedingly bullish; and pattern traders are loading up on stocks, particularly Fangs & Techs, for the standard rally into results.

If stocks are soft in the morning or at midday, possibly on unfavorable bank results, be alert for the Friday afternoon rally, which can be amplified by buying ahead of expiry week and Q1 earnings results.

Expected economic data: March Retail Sales -0.4% m/m, Ex-Autos -0.4%, Ex-Autos & Gas -0.5%; March Industrial Production 0.2% m/m, Mfg Production -0.1%, Capacity Utilization 79.1%; March Import Prices -0.1% m/m & -4.1% y/y, ex-Petro 0.0% m/m; Export Prices 0.0% m/m; April UM Sentiment 62, Current Conditions 66, Expectation 58.5, 1-yr Inflation 3.7%; Fed Gov Waller 8:45 ET

Expected earnings: PNC 3.66, PGR 1.38, WFC 1.13, JPM 3.38, BLK 7.70, UNH 6.05, C 1.67

ESMs are -2.50 and USMs are +1/32 at 20:20 ET; trading is very lackluster.

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4033; 100-day MA: 3990; 150-day MA: 3924; 200-day MA: 3949
DJIA 50-day MA: 33,107; 100-day MA: 33,375; 150-day MA: 32,622; 200-day MA: 32,508

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3847.63 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4035.72 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4108.61 triggers a sell signal

@JackPosobiec; So, are we just going to overlook the fact that the leaks show Biden authorized US troops on the ground in Ukraine and then lied about it?

Biden claims he started writing book about technology changing the world (at Irish Parliament!)
“But, you know, I started to write a book talking about how technology has always changed the world.”
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-claims-he-started-writing-book-technology-changing-world

Joe Biden Reads “End of Quote” Off of Teleprompter in Disastrous Speech to Irish Parliament
Biden could barely read the teleprompter. He slurred his words and told bizarre stories. At one point Joe Biden said his grandfather compared him to a revolutionary warlord who was shot dead: “Joey, I worry about you. You’re too much like that guy who led the Revolution. You gotta be less like the military guy. They shot him.” Of course this never happened…  https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/04/hes-shot-joe-biden-reads-end-of-quote-off-of-teleprompter-in-disastrous-speech-to-irish-parliament-video/

@RNCResearch: Biden gets confused after his speech in Ireland, so Hunter tells him where to go
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1646252947708231684

@RNCResearch: Why does Biden never know where he’s going?
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1646474395353772032

@RNCResearch: BIDEN in Ireland: “I’m not going home. I’m staying here.” (Endless pandering)
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1646477198801395712

Biden tells Dublin parliament fishy tale about speech to 10K fans after spotting anti-Irish signs
“There was literally 10,000 people on the other side of the track waiting to hear me speak… about every 20 feet there was a brass plaque that said, ‘No Irish allowed.’…”
https://nypost.com/2023/04/13/biden-tells-dublin-parliament-fishy-tale-about-speech-to-10k-fans-after-spotting-anti-irish-signs/

@BBCWorld: “The idea … their great-great-grandsons would both be president I think is really a little bit of Irish malarky.”  Joe Biden reveals he and former President Barack Obama’s Irish ancestors sailed from the same port within weeks of each other.  https://bbc.in/416ZaES

@CarlosSimancas: The world is laughing at the United States, and you can’t blame them. Look at this s#
(Security, on purpose, closes door on Biden) https://twitter.com/CarlosSimancas/status/1646644153843843072

@RNCResearch: In Ireland, Biden told a story about a rugby player who “beat the hell out of the Black and Tans.” Except he meant New Zealand’s “All Blacks” rugby team. “Black and Tans” were a unit of the British military that fought the Irish Republican Army.
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1646462058643202051

Politico: Oh no, Joe: Biden confuses ‘All Blacks’ rugby team with ‘Black and Tan’ military force
At the end of a rambling speech in a pub Wednesday night, Biden… tried to pay a compliment to one of Kearney’s greatest sporting accomplishments…Trouble is, Biden let slip a reference that could well reflect his affinity with Irish rebel history and its folk songs… The Black and Tans were an auxiliary unit of Britain’s security forces that fought IRA rebels in their 1919-21 war of independence from Britain…
   Lost in the shuffle was Biden’s other Kearney gaffe: He still hasn’t figured out how to say his name.
When introducing Kearney at the White House on St. Patrick’s Day, Biden called him Keer-ney. The Irish pronounce the name Kar-ney. Biden stuck with Keer-ney on Wednesday.
https://www.politico.eu/article/oh-no-joe-biden-confuses-all-blacks-rugby-team-with-black-and-tan-military-force-northern-ireland/

WaPo: Biden’s repeated claim (AKA a ‘lie’) he’s ‘traveled 17,000 miles with’ Xi Jinping
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/02/19/bidens-repeated-claim-hes-traveled-17000-miles-with-xi-jinping/

@bennyjohnson: Joe Biden (ending his speech): “Let’s go lick the world. Let’s get it done.”
https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1646618648390389760

Nile Gardiner op-ed in The Telegraph: Joe Biden has gravely insulted Britain
The US President thinks nothing of lecturing the government on Northern Ireland policy, and has shown contempt for the Special Relationship
    President Biden’s insulting decision to prioritise Ireland over the UK on his visit to mark the anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement should have come as no surprise. It is just as unsurprising as his decision to skip the coronation of King Charles III. Biden, like Barack Obama before him, has shown nothing but contempt for Great Britain and the Special Relationship….
    Joe Biden is increasingly portrayed on both sides of the Atlantic as a bumbling, gaffe-prone president who mumbles his words, and can be strikingly incoherent in public settings. This is an accurate assessment… https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/joe-biden-has-gravely-insulted-britain/ar-AA19MIBy

The Biden 10-Step Plan for Global Chaos – Victor David Hanson
The result is a new Chinese order in which, to quote the historian Thucydides, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.”  https://victorhanson.com/the-biden-10-step-plan-for-global-chaos/

Judge rejects DA Bragg’s emergency restraining order against Rep. Jordan (same day it was filed)
https://justthenews.com/videos/judge-rejects-da-braggs-emergency-restraining-order-against-rep-jordan-just-news-now

Lawmakers demand answers after priests booted from Walter Reed campus
Republican lawmakers want to know why a group of Catholic priests was barred from Walter Reed National Military Medical Center just before Easter week services, leaving troops there with limited options for their religious celebrations… However, officials with the Franciscan college said in a statement that the new group — Mack Global LLC — does not have Catholic clergy under contract to provide services and sacraments, leaving Catholic troops without reasonable access for their religious needs. Mack Global did not respond to emailed requests for comment… (Who is Mack Global? Who is its connection in procuring government contracts in a variety of services?)
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2023/04/12/lawmakers-demand-answers-after-priests-booted-from-walter-reed-campus/?s=02

Video shows reinstated TN State Rep Justin Jones stopping cars and assaulting drivers in summer of 2020 – Footage has been unearthed of disgraced Tennessee state representative Justin Jones stopping cars and assaulting drivers in 2020.  https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-video-shows-reinstated-tn-state-rep-justin-jones-stopping-cars-and-assaulting-drivers-in-summer-of-2020

CNN: Hakeem Jeffries’ ‘vague recollection’ of controversy surrounding his uncle undermined by college editorial defending him – For years, Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has told a similar story: he was off at college and shielded from controversies surrounding his uncle, Black studies professor Leonard Jeffries, who eventually lost his job over incendiary comments about Jewish people. Hakeem Jeffries has said he had only a “vague recollection” of the controversy, saying he couldn’t even recall coverage of it in local press. But a CNN KFile review of material from a 30-year-old college campus incident sharply undermines Jeffries’ claims.
    While Jeffries was a college student at Binghamton University in upstate New York, the Black Student Union, in which Jeffries was an executive board member, invited his uncle to speak on campus after his inflammatory comments caused an uproar.  And in a previously unreported college editorial, Jeffries defended his uncle along with Nation of Islam Leader Louis Farrakhan… https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/12/politics/kfile-hakeem-jeffries-college-editorial-defending-uncle-from-antisemitism

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries Once Compared Black Conservatives to Slaves https://t.co/ICGjoKmNuV

Florida professor leaves $190,000-a-year job following claim he faked data on racism studies
Eric Stewart… fabricated data by altering sample sizes to make the results appear more racist…
https://nypost.com/2023/04/12/florida-state-university-professor-leaves-job-after-claim-he-faked-data-on-racism/

@elonmusk: Publicly funded PBS joins publicly funded NPR in leaving Twitter in a huff after being labeled “Publicly Funded”

@KatieDaviscourt: Last night, Washington state passed SB 5599 which allows the state to legally take children away from their parents if they don’t consent to their child’s gender transition surgeries. All Democrats voted, yes. All Republicans voted, no. (Abjectly unconstitutional!)
https://senatedemocrats.wa.gov/liias/2023/03/01/bill-to-safeguard-youth-seeking-protected-health-services-clears-senate/

@MarinaMedvin: This is unconstitutional in my opinion. How does this law resolve against SCOTUS opinions? Santosky v. Kramer: “The fundamental liberty interest of natural parents in the care, custody, and management of their child.”
   Prince v. Massachusetts (1944): “it is cardinal with us that the custody, care and nurture of the child reside first in the parents, whose primary function and freedom include preparation for obligations the state can neither supply nor hinder.”
   Troxel v. Granville: “the interest of parents in the care, custody, and control of their children— is perhaps the oldest of the fundamental liberty interests recognized by this Court.”
   Pierce v. Society of Sisters: “the child is not the mere creature of the State; those who nurture him and direct his destiny have the right, coupled with the high duty, to recognize and prepare him…”

SFSU athletic director: ‘Common mistake’ to think men have physical advantages over women
https://www.thecollegefix.com/sfsu-athletic-director-common-mistake-to-think-men-have-physical-advantages-over-women/

GREG HUNTER

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox?compose=DmwnWsmDPKDXMrPscGwzkZdkFvRFPgfxZpzKwbsztWVsgVvjRMXTDrmKGLPsjhfKNWCXldcRmMVQ

Brace For Impact, mRNA Graphene Poison & Trump’s Trials

By Greg Hunter On April 14, 2023 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups3 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 577 4.14.23)

Don’t let the Jim Cramers (CNBC) of the world tell you everything is great with the economy, and we are headed for new highs. Just the opposite is coming, according to the IMF. The International Monetary Fund is warning of a “heavy downside risk” because the banking crisis you were told was over is far from over. Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini (aka Dr. Doom) says stagflation is a coming “mega-threat” and is warning of big “crashes.” It’s not just the economy that is going to crash, but the U.S. dollar. With all the bank bailouts and trillion-dollar spending plans in Congress, there is no way for the dollar to go anywhere but down.

They told us for years that there is no poisonous graphene in the mRNA CV19 bioweapon injections. They lied—again—surprise!! Newly released Pfizer documents say there is most definitely graphene in this swill passed off as some life-saving vaccine. This graphene admission means mRNA based CV19 injections are, in fact, bioweapons, and they did NOT help a single person. Nuremberg 2.0 here we come.

It’s another week and another Deep State lawsuit to try and stop Donald J. Trump from getting back into the White House. This week, it was yet another lawsuit from far left New York Attorney General Letitia James to sue President Trump and his family about the value of their real estate holdings. Trump was grilled for 7 hours in an attempt to get a $250 million judgment against Trump. James is on the record several time making threats and promised she was going to get Trump while she was campaigning for her job.

There is much more in the 58-minute newscast.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 4.14.23.

(https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox?compose=DmwnWsmDPKDXMrPscGwzkZdkFvRFPgfxZpzKwbsztWVsgVvjRMXTDrmKGLPsjhfKNWCXldcRmMVQ)

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After the Interview:

Renowned geopolitical and economic cycle expert Martin Armstrong will be the guest for the Saturday Night post. Spoiler alert: Things are getting worse and not better on all fronts. Armstrong will explain.

end

See you MONDAY

Robert Hryniak	Thu, Apr 13, 10:19 PM (3 hours ago)
to

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2023. CONTRACT: 722 NOTICES FOR 72,200 OZ or 2.2457 TONNES

total notices so far: 22,492 contracts for 2,259,200 oz (69.959 tonnes)

SILVER NOTICES: 3 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 15,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 307 for 1,535,000 oz

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

3 CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

Debt ceiling jitters drive up cost of insuring against U.S. default

Bloomberg columnist admits and contrives a rationale for dollar imperialism

Veronique de Rugy: The Fed has more than a credibility problem

Brazil’s Lula calls for end to dollar trade dominance

Alasdair Macleod: It’s all hotting up

100+ nations to simultaneously pull out of the dollar system? Feat. Andrew Schectman

Futures Flat As Tumbling Boeing Shares Offset Stellar JPM Earnings

Cautious APAC gains in light trade ahead of US bank earnings – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

US TRADE

EQUITIES

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

FX

FIXED INCOME

COMMODITIES

CRYPTO

GEOPOLITICAL

EU/UK

FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

2e) JAPAN

3 CHINA /

Escobar: Waiting For The End Of The World

Together, in synch, they are focused on creating the necessary conditions to bypass the US dollar.

What the Chinese really want

Is it 1848 all over again?

There are indeed intimations that Europe may be witnessing a rebirth.

US Slaps Sanctions On Hungary Bank Over Russia Ties

French Court Approves Macron’s Unpopular Pension Reform As Fresh Protests Expected

MORE

The Black Sea Will Never Be ‘NATO’s Sea’, Kremlin Vows

Iran, Russia, China, Pakistan FMs Hold Meeting To Deal With Afghan Economic Collapse

UK Study Finds “No Evidence” Face Masks Protect Vulnerable Against COVID

You want to know what tyranny is? Look no further than New Zealand & it’s COVID lockdown lunacy insanity STILL! ‘New Zealand Extends Mandatory Coronavirus Quarantines Until 2024’

There is no, and never was any medical or scientific or clinical basis to mass test asymptomatic, to isolate asymptomatic people, to lockdown whole societies; madness then & madness today!

Srečko Šorli et al’s updated research looking at the UK’s COVID vaccine data clarify that there is Increased Mortality after COVID-19 Vaccination; Vaccinated infected groups appear to have higher

average mortality than their non-vaccinated infected counterparts.’; the mortality of the vaccinated coronavirus infected groups was 14.5% higher on average than the mortality of non-vaccinated

Sub-variant COVID clade XBB.1.16 (aka Arcturus), the newest infectious clade shows no indications of severity, lethality etc.; so will the CDC, WHO & media stop the hyping and take a chill pill

To date, no change in severity etc. Reports are that in kids (or adults I have also heard of) there is additional conjunctivitis (itch, sticky eyes, redness) along with the routine COVID symptoms

Russian Oil Now Trades Consistently Above $60: Will The West Pretend Its Sanctions Are Still In Force

Oil Tanker Vanishes After Pirates Board Off West Africa

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS

Hawkish FedSpeak & Stagflation Scares Spark Big Reversal In Markets

Retail Sales Slide More Than Expected, Grow At Weakest Annual Pace Since June 2020

Hawkish Comments From Fed’s Waller Send May Rate Hike Odds Surging

Boeing Tumbles On Fresh Max Woes: Faulty Part Found On “Significant Number Of Undelivered 737 Max Planes”

A Record 30% Of San Francisco Office Space Is Vacant

70% Of Americans Are Financially Stressed, 58% Live Paycheck-To-Paycheck

CNBC Surveys

Cost of Shelter Still Rising Sharply

Shelter Costs Surge Again

Shelter Notes

Consumers Are Having a Much Harder Time Getting Credit Than a Year Ago

What’s Going On?

Fed Minutes Now Predict a Recession This Year Along With Higher Unemployment

Trump Sues Former Lawyer Michael Cohen For $500 Million

“Joe Biden Is A Criminal” Says Ex-Obama Whistleblower Alleging Family “Kickback Scheme”

Brace For Impact, mRNA Graphene Poison & Trump’s Trials

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