April 25/2023 · by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Editi
GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $4.90, TO $1994.35
SILVER PRICE CLOSED:DOWN 34 CENTS AT $24.88
Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE $1996.00
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 24.99
Bitcoin morning price:, $27,332 DOWN 26 Dollars
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $27,532 UP 174 dollars
Platinum price closing $1091.40 DOWN $0.20
Palladium price; $1488.65 DOWN $43.20
We have now entered options expiry week, with the Comex options expiring today April 25/2023 and LBMA/OTC expiring on Friday April 28.2023.
Today was quite a day. Last night, the cartel allowed gold to break $2000.00 only to lower the boom and start the avalanche on options expiry day for the Comex. However the demand for gold is just too strong and this forced the shorts to hurry their covering. The problem huge demand for gold and nobody supplying. A great day for gold today!
QUOTE THE DAY:
ROBERT KENNEDY JR:
@RobertKennedyJr: Fox fires Tucker Carlson five days after he crosses the red line by acknowledging that the TV networks pushed a deadly and ineffective vaccine to please their Pharma advertisers. Carlson’s breathtakingly courageous April 19 monologue broke TV’s two biggest rules: Tucker told the truth about how greedy Pharma advertisers controlled TV news content and he lambasted obsequious newscasters for promoting jabs they knew to be lethal and worthless… Fox just demonstrated the terrifying power of Big Pharma.
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2719.57 UP 35.20 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2732.50)
BRITISH GOLD: 1608.26 UP 15.77 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//1629.84)
EURO GOLD: 1818.57 UP.14.20 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH//1860.82)
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COMEX DATA EXCHANGE:
COMEX//NOTICES
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,989.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/24/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 04/26/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
167 C MAREX 1
523 H INTERACTIVE BRO 1
661 C JP MORGAN 5 100
726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 6
880 H CITIGROUP 101
905 C ADM 2
991 H CME 10
TOTAL: 114 114
MONTH TO DATE: 23,771
JPMorgan stopped 100/114 contracts
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2023. CONTRACT: 114 NOTICES FOR 11,400 OZ or 0.3546 TONNES
total notices so far: 23,771 contracts for 2,377,100 oz (73.937 tonnes)
SILVER NOTICES: 1 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 5 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 386 for 1,930,000 oz
END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $4.90
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD
/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://////A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/
INVENTORY RESTS AT 927,43 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 7.304 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV.//: INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV. WHAT A FRAUD..THERE IS NO SILVER AROUND SO HOW DID THESE JERKS GET A HOLD OF 7.304 MILLION OZ/
CLOSING INVENTORY: 471.387 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 778 CONTRACTS TO 156,290 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.21 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. WE HAVE THIS YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS ///MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.21). BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING A FEW SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A TINY LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 77 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 35.83 MILLION OZ.) WE HAVE FINISHED WITH OUR SPECS BEING SHORT AS THEY COVERED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE IN JANUARY . WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 350 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.055 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE)+ THE 35.83 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/+ 1.940 MILLION OZ NORMAL SILVER STANDING FOR APRIL///THUS TOTAL NEW STANDING 37.770 MILLION OZ/ //// V) GOOD SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/.
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –352 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS APRIL. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 15 days, total 19,078 contracts: OR 95.390 MILLION OZ . (1192 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 95/390 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105/ MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE BUT BELOW LAST MONTH
APRIL 95.390 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG THAN LAST MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 778 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR $0.21 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 350 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL OF 1.055 MILLION OZ//FIRST DAY NOTICE// 5,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON (WHICH DECREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) + 0 MILLION NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY (INCREASES THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING) //NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK STANDING 35.83 MILLION OZ, THUS TOTAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN APRIL TOTALS 37.770 MILLION .. WE HAVE A TINY SIZED LOSS OF 77 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD 1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 1044 CONTRACTS TO 473,847 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVE 238 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 1044 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $9.45 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APR. AT 66.892 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE // PLUS A 8,200 OZ QUEUE. JUMP :(QUEUE JUMPING = EXERCISING LONDON BASED EFP’S, ATTACHED TO COMEX CONTRACTS ) (EFP is the transfer of COMEX contracts immediately to London for potential gold deliveries originating from London)YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $9.45 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2,672 OI CONTRACTS (8.311 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1628 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 473,847
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2910 CONTRACTS WITH 1044 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 1628 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2672 CONTRACTS OR 8.311 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1628 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (1044 //TOTAL GAIN IN THE TWO EXCHANGES 2,672 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 66.892 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8200 OZ//NEW STANDING 74.808 TONNES // ///3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER/
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
APRIL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 49,048 CONTRACTS OR 4,904,800 OZ OR 152.55 TONNES IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3269 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 152.55 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 152.55/3550 x 100% TONNES 4.38% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 152.55 TONNES ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAR HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (NOV), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 778 CONTRACTS OI TO 156,290 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022
EFP ISSUANCE 350 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 350 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 350 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 778 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 350 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 428 CONTRACTS.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 2.140 MILLION OZ (EX EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.21 GAIN IN PRICE ….. OUR SPEC SHORTS HAVE NOWHERE TO HIDE!
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 10.54 PTS OR 0.32% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 342.06 POINTS OR 1.71% /The Nikkei closed UP 26.55 PTS OR 0.09% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.14 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.9217/OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.9343 /Oil UP TO 77.98 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 81.92 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 1044 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 473,847 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $9.45 ON MONDAY,
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1628 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 1628 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1628 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2672 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1628 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 1044 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $9.45. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING THE BANKERS GOING NET SHORT AND THE SPECS GOING NET LONG.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (74.808) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes (TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2003:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 74.808 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $9.45) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2,672 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 8.311 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL. (66.892 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 8,200 OZ… ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $9.45
WE HAD – REMOVED 238 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2672 CONTRACTS OR 267200 OZ OR 8.311 TONNES.
Estimated gold comex today 210,978 poor//raid failure
final gold volumes/yesterday 148,834 poor
//APRIL 25/ APRIL 2023 CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 353.66 oz 11 kilobars Brinks . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 0.Oz |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 114 notice(s) 11400 OZ 0.3546 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 280 contracts 28000 oz 0.8709 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 23,771 notices 2,377,100 OZ 73.937 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
i)Dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposit: nil oz
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
total deposits: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Brinks: 353.66 oz (11 kilobars)
total withdrawals: 353.66 oz
Adjustments; 1
i) dealer to customer HSBC 482.365 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL.
For the front month of APRIL we have an oi of 394 contracts having LOST 24 contracts. We had 106 contracts served ON MONDAY so we GAINED 82 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 8200 oz will stand at the comex.
May LOST 42 contracts DOWN to 1721.
June LOST 2323 contracts DOWN to 386,408 contracts.
We had 114 contracts filed for today representing 11400 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 5 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 114 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 100 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (23,771 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of (APRIL. 394 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 114 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,405,100 OZ OR 74.808 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of APRIL.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month: No of notices filed so far (23,771 x 100 oz)+394x OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (114)x 100 oz} which equals 2,405,100 oz standing OR 74.553 TONNES in this active delivery month of APRIL..
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 74.808 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o
total pledged gold: 1,703,295.912 OZ 52,97 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 23,180,315.395 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,304,855.776 (382.732 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,875,429.622 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,601.590 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 329.753 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
APRIL 25//2023// THE APRIL 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 293,185.600 oz JPmorgan . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1,122,702.024 oz Delaware Manfra |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 1 CONTRACT(S) (5,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 2 contracts (10,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 386 Contracts (1,930,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposits: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We have 2 deposits into the customer account
i)Into Delaware 539,818.000 oz
ii)Into Manfra: 582,884.024 oz
Total deposits: 1,122,702.024 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 140,781 million oz/272,436 million =51.83% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals: 1
i) Out of jPMorgan; 293,185.600 oz
Total withdrawals; 293,185.600 oz
adjustments: 1/dealer to customer/ CNT 49,571.200 oz
the silver comex is in stress!
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 30.544 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 272.434 million oz
CALCULATION OF SILVER OZ STANDING FOR MAR
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2023 OI: 3 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 12 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 11 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO WE LOST 1 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL AS THEY WERE E.F.P.’d TO LONDON.
MAY SAW A LOSS OF 9928 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 34,893
JUNE HAD A 36 CONTRACTS GAIN TO 578
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 1 for 5,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 119,637 huge //raid failure
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 90,775 very strong
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 386 x 5,000 oz = 1,930,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL(3) and the number of notices served upon today 1 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL/2023 contract month: 386 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL (3) – number of notices served upon today (1 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the APRIL. contract month equates to 1.940 million oz +/ NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY: 0 MILLION OZ //NEW TOTALS EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MONTH OF APRIL: 35.83 MILLION OZ// THUS TOTAL SILVER OZ STANDING: 37.770 MILLION OZ//
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
APRIL 25/WITH GOLD UP $4.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.43 TONNES
APRIL 24/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 20/WITH GOLD UP $12.70: HUGE CHANGES TODAY IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.57 TONNES
APRIL 19//WITH GOLD DOWN $12.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES
APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $12.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.70 TONNES/
APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.72 TONNES
APRIL 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.61 TONNES
APRIL 13/WITH GOLD UP$31.70 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.08 TONNES
APRIL 11/WITH GOLD UP $14.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.91 TONNES
APRIL 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91 TONNES
APRIL 6//WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.91
APRIL 5//WITH GOLD UP 0 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04
APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $36.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.04 TONNES
APRIL 3/WITH GOLD UP $14.20 TODAY;NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES
MARCH 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 928.02 TONNES
MARCH 30//WITH GOLD UP XX TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A DEPOSIT OF 2.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.47 TONNES
MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4,16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.//INVENTORY RESTS AT 927,23
MARCH 28/WITH GOLD UP $19.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.07 TONNES
MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 923.97 TONNES
MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $47.70 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT 87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.42 TONNES
MARCH 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $38.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.4 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.55 TONNES
MARCH 20//WITH GOLD UP $9.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 6.36 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.08 TONNES
MARCH 17/WITH GOLD UP $50.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72TONNES
MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.72 TONNES
MARCH 15/THE IDES OF MARCH: WITH GOLD UP $18.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 11.85 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.27 TONNES
MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $48.85 TODAY: VERY STRANGE HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY REST AT 901.42 TONNES
MARCH 10//WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.15 TONNES
MARCH 9/WITH GOLD UP $16.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.5 TONNES FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.62 TONNES
MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $33.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $0.55 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.12 TONNES
MARCH 3/WITH GOLD UP $14,10 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.69 TONNES
MARCH 1/WITH GOLD UP $18.90 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.30 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 927.43 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
APRIL 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: THIS IS UNBELIEVABLE!!! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 7.304 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.387 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 24/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.083 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 20/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.021 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.002 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 18 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.757 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.023 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.194 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.780 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 48 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 13/WITH SILVER UP HUGELY BY 48 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.389 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.974 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ
APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A DEPOSIT OF 4.643 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.585 MILLION OZ//
APRIL 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.942 MILLION OZ
APRIL 4/WITH GOLD UP $1.11 TODAY CRIMINAL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463,942 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.412
MARCH 31/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: A MASSIVE 4.779 MILLION OZ DEPOSITED INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT465.412 MILLION OZ
MARCH 30/WITH SILVER UP XX CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: A DEPOSIT OF 550,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.633 MILLION OZ
MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 460.082
MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 368,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.887 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 230,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.255 MILLION OZ
MARCH 23 WITH SILVER UP 62 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 919,000 0z INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.485 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 781,000 OZ FORM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.566 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 20./WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.401 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 459.347 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 17/WITH SILVER UP 79 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.478 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.748 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.009 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 473.226 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY; BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 643,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.235 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 14/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.287 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY REST AT 477.592 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP $1.35 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 10.WITH SILVER UP 36 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.879 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 9/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.195 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.979 MILLION OZ
MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.684 MILLION OZ
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 88 CENTS TODAY;HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.143 MILLION OZ
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 3/WITH SILVER UP 67 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 479.063 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2/WITH SILVER DOWN $.16 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 920,00 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 477.694 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.574 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 478.614 MILLION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 464.083 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES
1:Peter Schiff
Peter Schiff: A Higher Debt Ceiling Won’t Solve The Problem; It Will Make The Problem Worse
TUESDAY, APR 25, 2023 – 07:20 AM
In January, the US government ran up against the debt ceiling, kicking off another fake debt ceiling fight. Three months later, Congress still hasn’t agreed on a plan to raise the borrowing limit. Peter Schiff talked about it in his podcast, saying the lack of a higher debt ceiling isn’t the problem; the ever-increasing spending and the debt are the problems. Refusing to raise the ceiling would provide the solution.
In just the first six months of fiscal 2023, the Biden administration ran a $1.1 trillion budget deficit. Excessive spending is pushing the government toward a crisis point when it will no longer be able to finance spending through extraordinary measures. But Republicans in Congress want to attach strings to the new debt ceiling. Democrats want a “clean” bill to raise the spending limit.
Peter zeroed in on a key point in this “fight” – everybody wants to raise the debt ceiling.
It’s not like the Republicans are saying, ‘We’re not going to raise the debt ceiling.’”
Peter ran for Senate in 2010 and a key part of his platform was to stop raising the debt ceiling.
I didn’t want to come up with some gimmick to allow the ceiling to be raised. I wanted it to stop. I wanted to create a permanent ceiling that could never be raised.”
But Democrats (and most Republicans) claim, “We must raise the debt ceiling because we pay our bills!” Peter said it’s the exact opposite.
We never pay our bills. If you pay your bills, you don’t have any debt. Where does the debt come from? It’s unpaid bills. We have $31.7 trillion in debt. That’s $31.7 trillion of bills that we have not paid. We didn’t pay them. We borrowed the money. And we want to keep on borrowing the money. Nobody wants to pay any of these bills.”
This exacerbates the government spending problem. Uncle Sam never has to rein it in as long as he can keep borrowing.
We can keep putting all the spending on a credit card. As long as they raise the debt ceiling, we can continue to not pay our bills.”
Of course, eventually, the borrowing and the accompanying money printing will precipitate a currency crisis.
It’s not about America not wanting to borrow. It’s about the rest of the world not wanting to lend because they know we’re not going to pay them back. And one of the reasons they know that is because we’ve already told them. We are telling them that repeatedly in the debt ceiling battle.”
Meanwhile, the mainstream media spins the debt ceiling as a problem. Peter said the debt ceiling is actually the solution to the problem.
The problem is the debt. The problem is that Congress and the president keep running up more and more debt and every time we get to the ceiling, we either raise it or suspend it. … The problem is that we keep raising the ceiling, not that we won’t raise it. In fact, the threat is that we raise it again.”
The mainstream, along with Democrats, also claim that if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling, the US will default. Peter said that’s the dumbest thing you can say when you’re running a Ponzi scheme, which is what this is.
We are admitting that every time we tell our creditors that if we can’t borrow more money, ‘You’re out of luck, you’re not getting paid.’”
Peter pointed out that the interest on the debt is around $600 billion. The US government collects about $4.6 trillion in tax receipts.
We’ve got plenty of revenue to pay the interest on the national debt if we want to prioritize paying interest on the national debt. But clearly, we don’t want to do that. Not only are we not prioritizing it; we’re telling our bondholders that they’re the low man on the totem pole. We don’t talk about anything else that’s going to not get paid. Nobody is saying, ‘Well if we don’t raise the debt ceiling, we’re going to have to cut back on congressional salaries,’ or, ‘We’re going to have to fire some of our staffers.’ They don’t say, ‘Well if we don’t raise the debt ceiling, we might have to cut Social Security, and we’re going to have to cut defense.’ No! The only thing they talk about cutting is paying interest on the national debt. That tells you where you are as a creditor.”
Ponzi scheme 101 is don’t tell anybody that you’re running a Ponzi scheme.
We’re so dumb; we’re running the world’s biggest Ponzi scheme and we’re telling everybody that it’s a Ponzi scheme.”
And Peter said he thinks the world is starting to wake up. That’s why you’re seeing a move to get out of the dollar.
It’s only a question of time. It’s not a question of if. It’s just a question of when. We will default on our debt. All the bad stuff that they’re saying is going to happen if we don’t raise the debt ceiling is guaranteed to happen because we do raise the debt ceiling.”
Peter said a default could take two forms. We could have an honest default where the government just doesn’t pay back bondholders. Or we could have a dishonest default where we pay with inflation. In that case, they just print money and pay people back with worthless or near-worthless paper.
Those are the only two choices and everybody knows that.”
Peter went on to put the debt into a broader perspective and gave an overview of the history of the debt ceiling.
In this podcast, Peter also talked about money-losing companies going public and how a strong stock market now signals a weak economy.
ernd
2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//
END
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Chris’s interview: in preparation for Mining Investment Asia Conference in May
(GATA) GATA secretary interviewed in preparation for Mining Investment Asia conference
GATA secretary interviewed in preparation for Mining Investment Asia conference
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-04-24 20:15Section: Daily Dispatches
8:15a CST Tuesday, April 25, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
In preparation for next month’s Mining Investment Asia conference in Sinagpore, at which your secretary/treasurer will be speaking, Spencer Campbell of Southeast Asia Consulting Pte. Ltd. has interviewed me about GATA’s work exposing and opposing manipulation of the gold market. The interview can be found at the consultancy’s internet site here:
https://seasia-consulting.com/gata-gold-anti-trust-action-committee/
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
end
Good luck to them trying to get that quantity of gold into Zimbabwe(zerohedge)
Zimbabwe’s digital-currency plan needs $100 million of gold
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-04-24 13:03Section: Daily Dispatches
If the digital currency isn’t to be convertible to real metal, this is just another confidence trick.
* * *
By Ray Ndlovu and Godfrey Marawanyika
Bloomberg News
Monday, April24, 2023
Zimbabwe needs $100 million of gold to kick-start its proposed bullion-backed digital currency, as the southern African nation makes another attempt to stabilize its floundering dollar.
The central bank will rely on gold reserves, which it has been accumulating, to support the initiative and stem the local currency’s volatility, according to Persistence Gwanyanya, a member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee.
“Any amount around or less than $100 million will be able to deal with our challenge in a big way,” Gwanyanya said in an interview by phone from the capital, Harare. “We expect the central bank to bring a respectable quantity that can stabilize the Zimbabwe dollar and boost demand.”
Zimbabwe has been struggling to stem a decline in the currency in the nation where the U.S. dollar is the unit of choice. The central bank has been building gold reserves as well as acquiring other precious minerals since the introduction of a policy last year that compels miners to pay part of their royalties in cash and metal. It’s banking on the stash to help it with the latest plan. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
For your interest…
Fire and rain show California still has plenty of gold to discover
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2023-04-23 23:30 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Hope Sloop
Daily Mail, London
Sunday, April 23, 2023
Recent wildfires and rain have caused a “Gold Rush 2.0” in California’s Central , where some people have located pieces of gold that were unearthed by the natural events.
According to historian Ed Allen of the Marshall Gold Discovery State Park in Coloma, only about 10-15% of California’s gold has been discovered.
Now, nearly 175 years after the first gold rush, groups of eager amateur miners are headed back to “Gold Country” — an area on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada— in search of the remaining 85%.
In an interview with the New York Times, Albert Fausel showed off the gold he located in a creek in Placerville after just 20 minutes of searching.
“Woooo-hoo-hoooo!” the man said of his find — a piece of gold just big enough to pinch between your fingers that is worth around $100.
The hunt is on for anyone looking for nuggets of the pricey metal. In 1850 a nugget of gold went for $20 an ounce. Today an ounce will fetch you around $1,900. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
The author is perfectly correct: In this environment why on earth would gold miners hedge?
(Elouise Fowler)
Elouise Fowler: Why investors are sick of gold miners hedging
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2023-04-23 10:27Section: Daily Dispatches
By Elouise Fowler
Australian Financial Review, Sydney
Sunday, April 23, 2023
China, Russia, and Turkey bought vast amounts of gold via their central banks over the past year to bolster their foreign exchange reserves and diversify against the world’s most popular currency, the U.S. dollar.
Demand for gold jewellery in China has rebounded since lockdowns ended there. And fearful investors seeking safety from the global banking crisis have pumped money into physical gold exchange-traded funds, lifting ETF inflows in March for the first time in 10 months.
These drivers all suggest demand for gold will remain strong, says David Franklyn, managing partner of Perth-based fund Argonaut Resources.
“If you take a long-term view, the world is changing. I reckon we’ve entered an era of increased political risks,” Franklyn tells The Australian Financial Review. “So I think gold — as a store of value and as a hedge against uncertainty — is coming back.”
If Franklyn is right, why would gold miners choose to lock in prices with multi-year hedging agreements? It’s a temptation that other fund managers, such as David Baker, the managing partner of Baker Steel, urge them to resist.
Gold has rallied 10% this year and soft U.S. economic data pushed the gold price to $US2002 (A$2,991) an ounce on Friday, close to its one-year high.
Investors, fuelled by their conviction that the rally has further to run as tumult ripples through global markets, are seeking clean exposure to the precious metal, unencumbered by hedges struck when the gold price was lower.
“What I look for is companies that have zero or moderate levels of hedging, because we’re looking for pure gold exposure,” says Franklyn, who established a gold fund in November because he thought the sector was undervalued. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/why-investors-are-sick-of-gold-miners-hedging-20230418-p5d1dj
end
4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER RELATED COMMENTARIES/
END
5.IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: LITHIUM
end
GLOBAL COMMODITIES ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY COMMENTARIES/
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS//,TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9217
OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9343
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 10.54 POINTS OR 0.32%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 342.06 PTS OR 1.71%
2. Nikkei closed UP 26.55 PTS OR 0.09%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 101.33 EURO FALLS TO 1.1016 UP 42 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.473Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 134.21 /JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.4610***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.348*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.498…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.228
3j Gold at $1978.25 silver at: 24.54 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 29 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 81.62//
3m oil into the 77 dollar handle for WTI and 81 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 134.21 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO .473% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8884 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9787 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.493 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS…GETTING DANGEROUS//
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.679 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.059 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.43…
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 3 BASIS PTS AT 3.7800
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
2. a)FIRST, ZEROHEDGE (PRE USA OPENING// MORNING
Futures Slide Ahead Of Mega Tech Earnings
TUESDAY, APR 25, 2023 – 08:06 AM
US equity futures fell on Tuesday, as investors braced for the first earnings from the megatech giant “generals”, which incidentally are mostly lower premarket; bond yields are 3-5bp higher and the USD is higher.
Contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both fell 0.5% in New York as of 7:45 a.m. after Wall Street benchmarks ended Monday’s session broadly unchanged. Commodities are mixed with weaker oil after several days of gains. Yesterday, FRC reported after the bell with deposits declining 41% QoQ vs. -9% survey; stock is down 21% after close. Today, the focal point will be GOOGL and MSFT’s earnings after-market: investors will look for cost outlook and revenue growth. GOOGL closed +0.5% yday and +20.1% YTD; the implied move is 4.6%; MSFT closed -1.4% yday and up 17.5% YTD pre-market; the implied move is 3.3%. Further, keep an eye on the April Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed survey data.
In premarket trading, Alphabet and Microsoft are slightly lower ahead of their results after the market close today. Weighing on the sentiment were shares of US regional lenders, which dropped as much as 22% in premarket trading, after peer First Republic reported a slump in deposits that was worse than expected, sparking worries that the bank is still contending with challenges. Other US regional lenders fall too: PacWest Bancorp -2.2%, Western Alliance Bancorp -2.5%. Other results were mixed, with General Motors Co. and PepsiCo Inc. gaining after beats, while United Parcel Service Inc. sank as guidance disappointed. Here are some other premarket movers:
- Chinese stocks listed in the US fall, setting the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up for its longest streak of losses in a year as geopolitical tensions dent risk appetite. Alibaba (BABA US) falls 1.4%, Baidu (BIDU US) -2.4%.
- Luminar Technologies rises as much as 5.9% as Jefferies initiated the company with a buy rating, saying it is best positioned to capture a dominant share of the nascent lidar market.
The first tech giant results due today will move markets: so far in 2023 the Nasdaq 100 has strongly outperformed the broader US market, rising about 19%, while the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones have added only 7.8% and 2.2% respectively. The tech-heavy index has posted the best start of the year since 2012 as investors bet that softer economic growth will lead the Federal Reserve to soften its hawkish stance.
Meanwhile, an earnings recession looms: profits for information technology companies in the S&P 500 are projected to fall 15% in the first quarter, which would be the biggest contraction year-over-year since 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. The largest tech-related companies have been the biggest contributors to the the S&P 500’s advance this year, by virtue of their size and outperformance. Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia alone account for nearly half of the index’s gains, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“What will be crucial for the outlook in tech is the rate expectations, and currently the market is pricing in swift cuts by the Fed for the second half of this year, which we do not agree with,” Ann-Katrin Petersen, a senior investment strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute, said on Bloomberg TV. “This sector is very rate-sensitive, so it might have digest this potential for a reversal in Fed rate expectations for the second half of this year.”
“Markets seem to be convincingly anticipating that there will be no recession, that inflation will fall and that at the same time, the Fed and the ECB could lower rates,” said Frederic Rollin, senior investment adviser at Pictet Asset Management. “We’re not saying it’s impossible but that would be the best outcome possible.”
In the run-up to the Fed’s May 3 decision, investors are looking to figures on economic growth and consumer spending that will help determine the pace of the Fed’s rate increases this year. Economists expect Thursday’s GDP data to show US economic output decelerated to 2% annual growth in the first three months of 2023 from 2.6% in the fourth quarter.
Citigroup strategists led by Beata Manthey said that even if the European GDP outpaces that of the US, European equities and earnings will come under pressure as the region’s profits are more cyclical relative to American peers. Citi strategists prefer the US stock market over Europe as the US tends to perform more defensively than other markets during EPS slowdowns
In Europe, bank stocks are leading the broader market lower after updates from UBS and Santander prompted sharp declines in their share prices. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.5% and on course for its largest one-day drop in a month. European banks dropped after Banco Santander and UBS reported 1Q earnings that failed to impress analysts, at the start of a busy week for the region’s banks. The Stoxx 600 Banks Index was 2% lower, second- worst performing sector in Europe, while the Financial Services Index, in which UBS trades, was 1.2% lower. Banco Santander declined 4% as analysts note earnings beat was driven by trading, while deposit outflows in Spain were steeper and interest income missed in a few regions. Here are the most notable European movers:
- Novartis gains as much as 2.7%, reaching a two-month high, after reporting 1Q results that Citi said were solid, with sales for new prostate cancer drug Pluvicto beating estimates
- ABB climb as much as 3.9% after it reported beats across the board according to Citi, as the Swiss engineering and automation company increased its revenue guidance for the year
- Vodafone shares rise as much as 2.7% after its biggest shareholder Emirates Telecom initiated discussions with the UK carrier around non-executive board composition
- Kuehne + Nagel rises as much as 6% after it posted a beat driven by sea logistics division, analysts said, who also flagged some economic challenges looming for the logistics giant
- Whitbread shares rise as much as 5%, climbing to the highest since November 2021, after the hotel and restaurant group reported full-year adjusted pretax profit that beat consensus
- Wartsila gains as much as 6.9% after the power plant services company reported first-quarter results, with analysts highlighting the good order intake as the main positive
- UBS falls as much as 5.4% after reporting earnings that disappointed analysts who pointed to the possibility of consensus cuts on the back of weak net interest income guidance
- Banco Santander slides as much as 4.6% as analysts say the Spanish lender’s first- quarter earnings beat was offset by steeper deposit outflows in Spain and a net interest income miss. The wider European banking sector is the worst-performing Stoxx 600 subindex after UBS and Santander’s 1Q misses kick off a busy week for the region’s banks
- Associated British Foods shares drop as much as 7% after the food processing and retailing company reported interim adjusted operating profit that missed estimates
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined for a third day as investors continued to sell Chinese shares on economic and geopolitical risks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.8% Tuesday, with Tencent and Alibaba among the biggest drags. Key indexes of Hong Kong-listed stocks fell by more than 1.7% as top leaders highlighted risks to China’s economy and as Beijing’s relations with the US remained strained.
“Given geopolitical tensions, people are unsure about the long term and impatient to ‘buy and wait,’” Bank of America strategists including Winnie Wu wrote in a note dated Monday. “Investors discount the good data for ‘low base’ for being ‘unsustainable,’” as bottom-up corporate earnings and guidance remain soft, they added. Stocks also declined in South Korea and Taiwan, while equity benchmarks in Japan advanced. Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia were closed for holidays. The MSCI Asia gauge is down 1.4% so far in April, while its 90-day historical volatility has slumped to the lowest in more than one year. This week will be the busiest of the current Asian earnings season, with more than 800 firms in the MSCI Asia gauge scheduled to report, giving investors fodder for portfolio picks as they await the next Federal Reserve policy decision in early May.
Japanese stocks gained as better-than-expected earnings from major companies including Nidec boosted optimism. The Topix rose 0.2% to close at 2,042.15, while the Nikkei advanced 0.1% to 28,620.07. Mitsubishi Electric contributed the most to the Topix gain, increasing 3.3% on a plan to spin off its auto business. Out of 2,158 stocks in the index, 1,236 rose and 792 fell, while 130 were unchanged. “Nidec earnings were better than expected and associative buying is also taking place for other stocks” said Shingo Ide, chief equity strategist at NLI Research Institute
Amid the risk-off mood, investors favored perceived safe-haven assets with Treasuries on the front foot and US 10-year yields down 5bps at 3.44%, while the Japanese yen and Swiss franc sit atop the G-10 intraday rankings.
In rates, treasuries rise with gains led by belly of the curve, extending 5s30s spread through Monday’s range. Bid has support from risk-aversion as earnings reports roll in. US yields richer by 3bp-5.5bp across the curve with belly-led gains steepening 5s30s spread by ~1.5bp on the day; 10-year yields around 3.44%, richer by ~5bp vs Monday’s close with bunds slightly outperforming and gilts lagging by 1.5bp in the sector. Auction cycle comprises $42b 2-year note sale at 1pm and 5-year and 7-year sales Wednesday and Thursday. WI 2-year yield at 4.00% is ~4.5bp cheaper than March result, a 2.7bp tail. Focal points of US session include housing data, while final auction cycle of the February-April financing quarter begins with 2-year note sale. European bonds have also benefited, with 10-year borrowing costs falling by 6bps in Germany and 4bps in the UK.
Markets are now pricing the peak for US interest rates in June, and then a decline to end the year below 4.5%. The small shifts in Fed projections underscore the lack of direction at the start of a busy week for economic data and corporate earnings. Data published Monday showed US manufacturing data was weaker than economists forecast, while uncertainty over the debt ceiling persisted. Later this week, US GDP data is forecast to reveal slower growth, and the so-called core PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to show price growth cooled.
“The data justifies a 25 basis-point hike,” said Erick Muller, head of product and investment strategy at Muzinich & Co. in London. “But it’s going to be difficult for central banks to raise rates and then quickly within a few months to start reversing that.”
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.2%; the Japanese yen and Swiss franc outperformed Group-of-10 peers. Large flows went through at the 8am London fix in EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF as European stocks fell at the open. The Australian dollar and Norway’s krone are the weakest.
In commodities, crude futures edge lower with WTI falling 0.3% to trade near $78.50. Spot gold is flat around $1,990.
Bitcoin is flat; Coinbase filed a petition to push the SEC to create new rules on crypto, according to Reuters.
To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for April, new home sales for March, and the FHFA house price index for February. Otherwise, we’ll hear from BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent. Finally, earnings releases include Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, General Electric, General Motors, Pepsi and McDonald’s.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 4,140
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 466.76
- MXAP down 0.6% to 159.78
- MXAPJ down 1.2% to 510.13
- Nikkei little changed at 28,620.07
- Topix up 0.2% to 2,042.15
- Hang Seng Index down 1.7% to 19,617.88
- Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,264.87
- Sensex little changed at 60,097.44
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 7,321.99
- Kospi down 1.4% to 2,489.02
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.45%
- Euro down 0.2% to $1.1029
- Brent Futures up 0.2% to $82.89/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,990.30
- U.S. Dollar Index up 0.13% to 101.48
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- China’s upcoming politburo meeting likely to shift the focus away from COVID stimulus and toward policies to ensure the economic recovery can be sustained. BBG
- The world’s car industry will shrink to only 10 companies over the coming decade, a Chinese rival to Elon Musk’s Tesla has said, as intense competition in China’s electric vehicle market spills on to the global stage. Brian Gu, vice-chair of Guangzhou-headquartered Xpeng, said for Chinese companies to be among the last carmakers standing, they would need to have annual sales of at least 3mn vehicles, underpinned by global exports. The world’s largest carmaker Toyota sold 10.5mn cars in 2022, while Tesla sold 1.3mn. FT
- The EU and Japan have pushed back against a US proposal for G7 countries to ban all exports to Russia, as part of negotiations ahead of a summit of the world’s most advanced economies. FT
- The world’s top central banks are cutting the frequency of their dollar liquidity operations with the U.S. Federal Reserve from May, sending the clearest signal yet that last month’s financial market volatility is essentially over. Central banks of the euro zone, Japan, Britain and Switzerland will now revert to their usual weekly tenders, indicating that the extraordinary backstop is no longer needed as markets are functioning as intended. RTRS
- UBS pulled in $28 billion from rich clients in the first quarter. Net new money at the wealth unit included $7 billion in the 10 days after its takeover of Credit Suisse. Profit missed as UBS set aside $665 million for litigation tied to its role in selling mortgage securities before the GFC. The bank said geopolitics and liquidity concerns are depressing client activity and may affect new money in coming months. Shares fell. BBG
- House Republican leaders insist they won’t change their debt ceiling bill to win over holdouts, but they may not have the necessary votes without some tweaks. Politico
- The next big debt ceiling events will be whether McCarthy can pass his blueprint this week (reports suggest it will be VERY close, and there may need to be revisions) while the Treasury will publish a new timeline for the “X date” in the next 1-2 weeks. BBG
- Trump will learn his fate in Georgia over the summer (between Jul 11 and Sept 1) as that’s when the DA said she will decide whether to press charges. NYT
- President Biden formally launched his reelection campaign with a video announcement Tuesday, a long-awaited declaration that puts him on the path to a potential rematch with the man he beat in 2020—former President Donald Trump. WSJ
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly lower after the mixed performance in the US where sentiment was clouded by a disappointing Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey and the tech sector was among the laggards ahead of the upcoming big tech earnings, with the mood in the Asia-Pac region also contained amid the closures in Australia and New Zealand for ANZAC Day. Nikkei 225 was positive amid softer Services PPI data and after the government raised its view on imports for the first time since July last year, while BoJ Governor Ueda repeated that the BoJ sees it appropriate to maintain YCC and easy monetary policy given the current economic, price and financial developments. KOSPI failed to hold on to early gains after South Korean GDP printed mixed but still showed the economy averted a recession. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp weakened with Hong Kong pressured by underperformance in tech and after the local benchmark slipped beneath the 20k level, although losses in the mainland were stemmed following another firm PBoC liquidity injection and reports that China urged banks to cut deposit rates.
Top Asian News
- China’s Politburo is likely to shift focus from stimulus to reforms when top leaders meet which could take place this week as China’s economic recovery is well on track, according to Bloomberg.
- China’s Commerce Minister met with the European Commission EVP in Brussels and the sides exchanged views on topics including expanding trade and investment cooperation, according to MOFCOM.
- BoJ Governor Ueda said the BoJ sees it appropriate to maintain YCC and easy monetary policy given the current economic, price and financial developments, while he also said that Japan’s bond yield curve is currently smooth as a whole. Ueda said tightening monetary policy now could push down inflation in the future which is already likely to slow on dissipating effect of import costs and noted that if they see the risk of runaway inflation, they must normalise monetary policy but added that they see the risk of inflation undershooting forecast as a bigger risk than overshooting which is why the BoJ must maintain easy policy for now.
- China’s Foreign Ministry announced that airline companies will no longer check COVID-19 nucleic acid test results of passengers to China before boarding from April 29th, via Global Times.
European bourses are under pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%, continuing the downbeat APAC tone with drivers light ex-earnings; SMI +0.2% outperforms after heavyweights Nestle, Novartis and ABB. Sectors are similarly pressured with Banks hit by UBS and Santander. US futures are lower, ES -0.4%, with attention almost exclusively on earnings. Note, Biden has as expected kicked off his re-election campaign. First Republic Bank (FRC) Q1 2023 (USD): EPS 1.23 (exp. 0.72), Revenue 1.2bln (exp. 1.22bln); Deposits 104.47bln (exp. 136.67bln), down 1.7% from March 31st. Cutting workforce by about 20-25% in Q2. -19.5% in pre-market trade. Nestle (NESN SW) – Q1 (CHF): Revenue 23.47bln (exp. 23.82bln), Organic Revenue +9.3% (exp. +7.25%). Confirms FY outlook for organic growth of 6-8%. +1.3% in European trade
Top European News
- BoE, BoJ, ECB and SNB in consultation with the Fed have decided to revert the frequency of their 7-day operations from daily to once per week, effective 1st May. Decision taken in view of the improvements in USD funding conditions and low demand at recent USD liquidity providing operations.
- ECB’s Lane said current data suggests that they have to raise interest rates again at the upcoming meeting, while he added that beyond the May 4th meeting, further rate hikes will depend on data, according to Reuters.
- German Finance Minister Lindner said they need to strengthen EU fiscal rules, not dilute them, and they are in discussions on the future design of the common European fiscal framework, according to FT.
- EU tweaked patent rules to make it easier for patent holders to seek injunctions, according to the latest draft rules cited by Reuters.
- German Chancellor Scholz to meet with Chinese leadership in Berlin on 20th June.
FX
- Initial cagey and contained trade has picked up slightly throughout the European morning, with the dollar index at the mid-point of 101.19-10151 parameters and dipping within this slightly as JPY advances.
- JPY is the relative outperformer irrespective of dovish Ueda commentary as UST yields dip and the US yield curve flattens, USD/JPY below 134.00 from initial 134.47 best.
- At the other end of the spectrum AUD has come under renewed pressure as base metals flounder further in holiday thinned conditions for ANZAC day, with further declines in AUD/NZD cross evidence of the Aussies recent underperformance and ahead of Q1 CPI.
- EUR and GBP continue to drift but remain above 1.10 and 1.245 respectively with specific drivers limited aside from Central Bank commentary that hasn’t fundamentally altered the narrative.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8847 vs exp. 6.8853 (prev. 6.8835)
Fixed Income
- Bonds remain bid after extending rebounds from Monday to 134.40, 101.40 and 115-15 for Bunds, Gilts and the T-note respectively.
- German 2 year supply reasonably well received in contrast to recent sales and ahead of the USD 42bln auction.
- USTs experienced a modest boost back towards earlier highs following a 10k five year block trade at 109.27+, with the US five year yield the incremental domestic laggard following this.
- UK DMO revises the 2023/24 Gilt issuance remit to GBP 237.8bln (prev. 241.1bln)
Commodities
- WTI and Brent futures are choppy but have been ultimately horizontal above USD 78.50 and USD 82.50/bbl respectively since around the settlement yesterday before some modest downside in recent trade.
- Spot gold remains sub-USD 2,000/oz and attempted to top the level before the Chinese cash opened last night.
- Industrial metals are lower across the board as the greenback and soured risk tone pressure the complex
- China March YTD gold output rose 1.9% Y/Y to 84.97 tonnes and gold consumption rose 12.0% Y/Y to 291.58 tonnes.
- Russian Deputy Energy Minister says volatility and uncertainty on global energy markets will increase due to underinvestment, hope to share some results of the new energy strategy in the next few months.
Geopolitics
- Russia may withdraw from the treaty banning intermediate and shorter-range nuclear missiles, according to a foreign ministry official cited by TASS.
- Russian Foreign Ministry’s head of nuclear non-proliferation Yeramakov said the risks of a direct military confrontation between the two nuclear powers, Russia and the US, are increasing with Washington escalating the risks through its conduct, according to TASS.
- EU and Japan pushed back against a US proposal for the G7 to ban all exports to Russia, according to FT.
- UK Foreign Minister Cleverly is to call for constructive ties with China in his Mansion House speech on Tuesday, according to FT. However, The Telegraph reported that Cleverly is to also say that China must come clean on the ‘biggest military build-up in peacetime’ and is to warn of the danger of ‘tragic miscalculation’ if Beijing’s aggression continues.
- Egyptian Foreign Ministry announced the killing of the assistant administrative attaché at the Egyptian embassy in Khartoum, Sudan, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, said “our competitors should not underestimate the possibility of our use of nuclear weapons”, via Al Jazeera.
US Event Calendar
- 09:00: Feb. S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY, prior 3.79%
- 09:00: Feb. S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. -0.35%, prior -0.43%
- 10:00: April Conf. Board Consumer Confidenc, est. 104.0, prior 104.2
- 10:00: April Conf. Board Expectations, prior 73.0
- 10:00: April Conf. Board Present Situation, prior 151.1
- 10:00: April Richmond Fed Business Conditio, prior -17
- 10:00: April Richmond Fed Index, est. -8, prior -5
- 10:00: March New Home Sales MoM, est. -1.2%, prior 1.1%
- 10:00: March New Home Sales, est. 632,000, prior 640,000
- 10:30: April Dallas Fed Services Activity, prior -18.0
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Whilst it might be an eventful week coming up ahead, so far it hasn’t got off to a particularly exciting start, with the last 24 hours seeing a broadly risk-off tone as investors looked forward to a raft of earnings releases that will start coming through today. That left yields on 10yr Treasuries down -8.2bps by the end of the session, and this morning they’ve shed a further -1.5bps, taking them down to 3.48%. Otherwise, the S&P 500 experienced a modest +0.09% gain, but elsewhere the picture has been more downbeat, with Chinese equities losing ground for a 5th consecutive session this morning, whilst the major European indices also experienced a modest pullback.
One factor that’s spurred the latest moves have been continued concern among investors about a US recession. In part that was down to fresh data out yesterday, with the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing outlook survey ticking down to a 9-month low of -23.4 (vs. -12.0 expected). But another reason were fears about the upcoming debt ceiling deadline that’s likely to arrive in the summer. Indeed, at one point yesterday the gap between the 1m Treasury yield and the 3m Treasury yield was on track to close at its highest level in available data on Bloomberg back to 2001, although it then tightened and is currently at 151bps this morning. Even with the tightening though, those sort of levels are still far steeper than normal for the 1m3m curve, and it speaks to the concern in markets about a potential issue occurring between one and three months’ time, which coincides with potential debt ceiling deadlines.
Speaking of the debt ceiling, DB’s US rates strategist Steven Zeng put out an update on the issue yesterday (link here). His view is that the most likely x-date remains in August in light of April’s tax receipts so far, but there are stressed scenarios that could bring the date forward to late-July. In terms of what to look out for next, Republican House Speaker McCarthy said after the US close that the House will vote on the Republican plan at some point this week. Bloomberg reported last night that he’s still short of the votes to pass it given the very slim Republican majority in the House, but the bill is expected to go to the Rules Committee later today which starts the process of bringing it to a vote. Even if it passed the House, the bill isn’t going to get through the Democratic-controlled Senate, but the idea is that McCarthy can demonstrate to Democrats what the Republicans are willing to get behind, as part of an opening move in any potential negotiation.
With growing fears in markets about the debt ceiling, investors brought forward the likelihood of rate cuts from the Fed over the months ahead. Looking at Fed funds futures, the rate priced in by the December meeting came down by -9.2bps yesterday to 4.49%, which is its lowest expected level in just over a week. Even so, there’s still a high degree of confidence that the Fed will proceed with another hike at their next meeting a week tomorrow, with futures pricing in an 88% chance of a move this morning. The various shifts in expectations helped Treasury yields to move lower across the curve, with those on 2yr yields down -9.3bps to 4.09%, and those on 10yr yields down -8.2bps to 3.49%.
On the topic of central banks, yesterday also saw growing speculation that the ECB might deliver another 50bps hike at their meeting that’s also taking place next week. That followed comments from Isabel Schnabel of the Executive Board, who said in an interview with Politico that “Data dependence means that 50 basis points are not off the table.” That spurred a modest selloff among European sovereign bonds late in the session, with yields on 10yr bunds (+2.7bps), OATs (+2.8bps) and BTPs (+2.8bps) all moving higher on the day.
When it came to equities, the S&P 500 eventually closed +0.09% higher after previously spending much of the day in negative territory. The marginal gain was driven by energy (+1.54%) and defensives such as Food & Staples (+0.92%) and Utilities (+0.50%). By contrast, tech stocks saw a stronger decline, with the NASDAQ down -0.29% and the FANG+ index down -0.55%, which comes ahead of earnings releases from both Microsoft and Alphabet after the US close today. There wasn’t much in the way of earnings yesterday, although we did hear from Coca Cola (-0.16%), which underperformed the broader market slightly despite beating expectations. After the close, we also heard from First Republic (closed up +12.20%) who announced that customer deposits are down 41% or $105bn in Q1, worse than analysts’ estimates, and are planning on reducing 25% of the lender’s workforce. Outflows have slowed recently with deposits slipping just 1.7% this month through last Friday. Earlier, the bank was trading -22% in after-market trading.
Back in Europe, markets similarly saw little intraday volatility with the STOXX 600 closing -0.01% after trading in a 0.5% range. Sentiment was supported by the latest Ifo business climate indicator from Germany, which came in at 93.6 in April (vs. 93.4 expected). That was a 6th consecutive monthly gain for the index, and takes it up to its highest level since February 2022, before the index saw a significant decline following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Overnight in Asia, the risk-off tone has gathered pace again, with major losses for several indices. That includes the CSI 300 (-0.52%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.35%), both of which have declined for a 5th consecutive session. Otherwise, the Hang Seng (-1.62%) and the KOSPI (-2.00%) have experienced even larger losses, and that sentiment has spread elsewhere too, with futures on the S&P 500 currently down -0.32%
The main exception to that pattern this morning have been among Japanese equities, with the Nikkei up +0.22%. That’s followed comments from new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda overnight, who said in questions to parliament that it was appropriate to continue with the yield curve control policy, and that tightening policy now could cause inflation to weaken further. Remember that his first decision as BoJ Governor is taking place this Friday, so markets will be paying close attention for any signs of a policy shift.
Finally, on the topic of US politics again, several outlets including the Washington Post, AP and Politico have reported that President Biden could formally announce his re-election campaign for 2024 as soon as today. As it happens, it would mark 4 years exactly since his 2020 launch, and an official announcement would enable the campaign to begin fundraising and remove any uncertainty about whether Biden will run for re-election. However, the reports have suggested that any plans were not fully finalised, and it’s also possible that Biden could wait before making any formal decision, particularly since there’s no major candidate seeking to challenge him for the nomination on the Democratic side.
To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for April, new home sales for March, and the FHFA house price index for February. Otherwise, we’ll hear from BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent. Finally, earnings releases include Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, General Electric, General Motors, Pepsi and McDonald’s.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
APAC pressure continues with earnings in focus, core debt bid with US 5yr leading – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, APR 25, 2023 – 06:22 AM
- European bourses are under pressure continuing the APAC handover with drivers light ex-earnings.
- SMI outperforms following Nestle, Novartis and ABB while Banking names lag after UBS and Santander.
- Stateside, futures are lower; FRC -19.5% in pre-market as deposits miss expectation.
- DXY firmer but at the mid-point of the day’s range with JPY outperforming while AUD lags once again
- Core debt is bid across the board with USTs picking up further after a 10k 5yr block trade
- Commodities choppy with Crude and Spot Gold contained/slightly softer while base metals languish.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US New Home Sales. Supply from the US. Earnings from Alphabet, McDonald’s, Microsoft, Verizon & Visa.
View the full premarket movers and news report.
Or why not try Newsquawk’s squawk box free for 7 days?
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are under pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%, continuing the downbeat APAC tone with drivers light ex-earnings; SMI +0.2% outperforms after heavyweights Nestle, Novartis and ABB.
- Sectors are similarly pressured with Banks hit by UBS and Santander.
- US futures are lower, ES -0.4%, with attention almost exclusively on earnings. Note, Biden has as expected kicked off his re-election campaign.
- First Republic Bank (FRC) Q1 2023 (USD): EPS 1.23 (exp. 0.72), Revenue 1.2bln (exp. 1.22bln); Deposits 104.47bln (exp. 136.67bln), down 1.7% from March 31st. Cutting workforce by about 20-25% in Q2. -19.5% in pre-market trade
- Nestle (NESN SW) – Q1 (CHF): Revenue 23.47bln (exp. 23.82bln), Organic Revenue +9.3% (exp. +7.25%). Confirms FY outlook for organic growth of 6-8%. +1.3% in European trade
- Click here for more detail.
FX
- Initial cagey and contained trade has picked up slightly throughout the European morning, with the dollar index at the mid-point of 101.19-10151 parameters and dipping within this slightly as JPY advances.
- JPY is the relative outperformer irrespective of dovish Ueda commentary as UST yields dip and the US yield curve flattens, USD/JPY below 134.00 from initial 134.47 best.
- At the other end of the spectrum AUD has come under renewed pressure as base metals flounder further in holiday thinned conditions for ANZAC day, with further declines in AUD/NZD cross evidence of the Aussies recent underperformance and ahead of Q1 CPI.
- EUR and GBP continue to drift but remain above 1.10 and 1.245 respectively with specific drivers limited aside from Central Bank commentary that hasn’t fundamentally altered the narrative.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8847 vs exp. 6.8853 (prev. 6.8835)
- Click here for more detail.
- Click here for the notable FX expiries for today’s NY cut.
FIXED INCOME
- Bonds remain bid after extending rebounds from Monday to 134.40, 101.40 and 115-15 for Bunds, Gilts and the T-note respectively.
- German 2 year supply reasonably well received in contrast to recent sales and ahead of the USD 42bln auction.
- USTs experienced a modest boost back towards earlier highs following a 10k five year block trade at 109.27+, with the US five year yield the incremental domestic laggard following this.
- UK DMO revises the 2023/24 Gilt issuance remit to GBP 237.8bln (prev. 241.1bln)
- Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent futures are choppy but have been ultimately horizontal above USD 78.50 and USD 82.50/bbl respectively since around the settlement yesterday before some modest downside in recent trade.
- Spot gold remains sub-USD 2,000/oz and attempted to top the level before the Chinese cash opened last night.
- Industrial metals are lower across the board as the greenback and soured risk tone pressure the complex
- China March YTD gold output rose 1.9% Y/Y to 84.97 tonnes and gold consumption rose 12.0% Y/Y to 291.58 tonnes.
- Russian Deputy Energy Minister says volatility and uncertainty on global energy markets will increase due to underinvestment, hope to share some results of the new energy strategy in the next few months.
- Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoE, BoJ, ECB and SNB in consultation with the Fed have decided to revert the frequency of their 7-day operations from daily to once per week, effective 1st May. Decision taken in view of the improvements in USD funding conditions and low demand at recent USD liquidity providing operations.
- ECB’s Lane said current data suggests that they have to raise interest rates again at the upcoming meeting, while he added that beyond the May 4th meeting, further rate hikes will depend on data, according to Reuters.
- German Finance Minister Lindner said they need to strengthen EU fiscal rules, not dilute them, and they are in discussions on the future design of the common European fiscal framework, according to FT.
- EU tweaked patent rules to make it easier for patent holders to seek injunctions, according to the latest draft rules cited by Reuters.
- German Chancellor Scholz to meet with Chinese leadership in Berlin on 20th June.
DATA RECAP
- UK PSNB, GBP (Mar) 20.709B GB (Prev. 15.859B GB, Rev. 12.501B GB); PSNCR, GBP (Mar) 18.886B GB (Prev. -0.227B GB, Rev. -1.693B GB)
- Spanish Industrial Prices (Mar): -1.0% YY (prev. 7.8%, rev. 8.0%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Biden said that we will know real soon about his election plans.
- Samsung SDI (006400 KS) to invest USD 3bln or more jointly with General Motors (GM) to build an EV factory in the US.
- Click here for the US Early Morning Note.
GEOPOLITICS
- Russia may withdraw from the treaty banning intermediate and shorter-range nuclear missiles, according to a foreign ministry official cited by TASS.
- Russian Foreign Ministry’s head of nuclear non-proliferation Yeramakov said the risks of a direct military confrontation between the two nuclear powers, Russia and the US, are increasing with Washington escalating the risks through its conduct, according to TASS.
- EU and Japan pushed back against a US proposal for the G7 to ban all exports to Russia, according to FT.
- UK Foreign Minister Cleverly is to call for constructive ties with China in his Mansion House speech on Tuesday, according to FT. However, The Telegraph reported that Cleverly is to also say that China must come clean on the ‘biggest military build-up in peacetime’ and is to warn of the danger of ‘tragic miscalculation’ if Beijing’s aggression continues.
- Egyptian Foreign Ministry announced the killing of the assistant administrative attaché at the Egyptian embassy in Khartoum, Sudan, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, said “our competitors should not underestimate the possibility of our use of nuclear weapons”, via Al Jazeera.
CRYPTO
- Coinbase (COIN) filed a petition to push the SEC to create new rules on crypto, according to Reuters.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mostly lower after the mixed performance in the US where sentiment was clouded by a disappointing Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey and the tech sector was among the laggards ahead of the upcoming big tech earnings, with the mood in the Asia-Pac region also contained amid the closures in Australia and New Zealand for ANZAC Day.
- Nikkei 225 was positive amid softer Services PPI data and after the government raised its view on imports for the first time since July last year, while BoJ Governor Ueda repeated that the BoJ sees it appropriate to maintain YCC and easy monetary policy given the current economic, price and financial developments.
- KOSPI failed to hold on to early gains after South Korean GDP printed mixed but still showed the economy averted a recession.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp weakened with Hong Kong pressured by underperformance in tech and after the local benchmark slipped beneath the 20k level, although losses in the mainland were stemmed following another firm PBoC liquidity injection and reports that China urged banks to cut deposit rates.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China’s Politburo is likely to shift focus from stimulus to reforms when top leaders meet which could take place this week as China’s economic recovery is well on track, according to Bloomberg.
- China’s Commerce Minister met with the European Commission EVP in Brussels and the sides exchanged views on topics including expanding trade and investment cooperation, according to MOFCOM.
- BoJ Governor Ueda said the BoJ sees it appropriate to maintain YCC and easy monetary policy given the current economic, price and financial developments, while he also said that Japan’s bond yield curve is currently smooth as a whole. Ueda said tightening monetary policy now could push down inflation in the future which is already likely to slow on dissipating effect of import costs and noted that if they see the risk of runaway inflation, they must normalise monetary policy but added that they see the risk of inflation undershooting forecast as a bigger risk than overshooting which is why the BoJ must maintain easy policy for now.
- China’s Foreign Ministry announced that airline companies will no longer check COVID-19 nucleic acid test results of passengers to China before boarding from April 29th, via Global Times.
DATA RECAP
- South Korean GDP QQ (Q1 A) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.4%); YY (Q1 A) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 1.3%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 10.54 PTS OR 0.32% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 342.06 POINTS OR 1.71% /The Nikkei closed UP 26.55 PTS OR 0.09% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.14 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 6.9217/OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 6.9343 /Oil UP TO 77.98 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT AT 81.92 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
END
3 CHINA /
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK/
The soaring cost of English breakfast is a shock to consumers. Inflation continues to hover in the double digits
(zerohedge)
Soaring Cost Of English Breakfast Shell-Shocks Consumers
TUESDAY, APR 25, 2023 – 02:45 AM
In March, UK inflation continued to hover in the double-digit range as households grappled with the persistently high cost of living. Among the various expenses challenging British consumers’ wallets, the price of an English breakfast has notably soared.
Economic data from the Office for National Statistics showed the consumer price index last month rose by an annual 10.1%, above a consensus forecast of 9.8%. This is a slight dip from 10.4% in February and still at four-decade highs.
Diving deeper into the report, we find the ingredient costs to make a traditional English breakfast are up a whopping 23% in March from last year. This is the most significant increase since Bloomberg created the Breakfast Index, which tracks prices of sausage, bacon, eggs, bread, butter, tomatoes, mushrooms, milk, tea, and coffee last June.
The Breakfast Index provides insight into shoppers’ hardships at the grocery store.Source: Bloomberg
“Overall prices are still increasing at their highest level for over a decade, as manufacturers continue to pass on their costs through the supply chain to end customers,” said Lisa Hooker, the industry leader for consumer markets at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. Source: Bloomberg
There is good news for consumers. Monthly changes some components in the Breakfast Index are decelerating. Source: Bloomberg
“With food price inflation likely to slow in the coming months as we enter the UK growing season, we expect wider inflation will continue to ease,” said Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium.
Meanwhile, the former chief economist of the Bank of England, Andy Haldane, who left the Bank in 2021 to lead the Royal Society of Arts think tank, forecasted that inflation would fall rapidly in the coming months.
The bad news is that persistently high food inflation might cause further labor actions by unions in the UK and other European countries throughout the summer.
end
SWITZERLAND
UBS/Credit Suisse
We warned you that this was going to happen: UBS’s net profit is halved, down 52% year/year.
(zerohedge)
UBS Slides As Net Profit Halved, Despite Wealthy Client Inflow
TUESDAY, APR 25, 2023 – 07:45 AM
UBS’s Swiss-listed shares slid in early Tuesday trading after the bank posted a 52% year-on-year decrease in net profit in the first quarter. Despite the slump, the bank recorded strong customer inflows while preparing to acquire rival Credit Suisse. This marks the first financial results since UBS announced the takeover of Credit Suisse last month.
UBS disclosed its weakest quarterly earnings in more than three years and a dim outlook for interest income in its wealth management division. It said net profit came in at $1.03 billion for the first quarter, missing analyst expectations of around $1.75 billion for the period.
Switzerland’s largest bank experienced a $665 million hit in net income due to US residential mortgage-backed securities litigation. It also said it’s in talks with the US Department of Justice to settle a 2018 civil complaint.
That news overshadowed the inflow of $28 billion from high-net-worth clients during the quarter, $7 billion arriving in the ten days following the announcement of the Credit Suisse takeover in March.
Here are other highlights of the first quarter:
- Revenues reached $8.75bln vs. 9.38bln a year ago
- Operating expenses were $7.2bln from $6.6bln a year ago
- CET 1 capital ratio, a measure of bank solvency, came in at 13.9% vs. 14.1% a year ago
Retaining clients and assets is a major challenge for Sergio Ermotti, who returned as UBS CEO to oversee the historic merger. The results didn’t include Credit Suisse’s operations since the merger has yet to be finalized.
Credit Suisse revealed on Monday that it borrowed far more from the Federal Reserve’s liquidity backstop program than previously known, with clients continuing to withdraw after the deal was announced.
In an interview with Bloomberg TV, Ermotti said the inflows at UBS are “a sign of confidence of our clients.” He noted that the inflows weren’t just from Credit Suisse clients but also from the US.
During the banking crisis last month, UBS froze its buyback program. Ermotti said during the interview:
“We are reiterating our intention to have a progressive cash dividend increase every year and we definitely have an intention to resume share buybacks when its appropriate.”
UBS shares fell as much as 5% Tuesday morning.
Here is what analysts are saying (courtesy of Bloomberg):
JPMorgan (Kian Abouhossein, overweight) says while earnings can be seen as weak, long-term view unchanged
- Says consensus EPS could be cut 3%-5% after bank gave worse than expected NII guidance for wealth management
- Notes more details on Credit Suisse merger were expected
KBW (Thomas Hallett, underperform) says results were a “lackluster set,” with wealth management underwhelming and also sees material downgrades to 2023 expectations following NII guidance
- Sees consensus going down 5% as bank guided that wealth management, personal and corporate net interest income to be broadly in-line with 2022 4Q annualized
- Capital below consensus
- Says results disappoint, remains underperform
Citi (Andrew Coombs, buy) sees earnings as uneventful, notes there could be disappointment on litigation charge, cautious outlook commentary
RBC (Anke Reingen, sector perform) notes 1Q missed estimates on higher litigation provisions and also sees consensus estimates earnings cuts on the NII guidance
Moving forward, UBS must integrate Credit Suisse, and any overlapping business units will likely result in thousands of job cuts.
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/the globe
ROBERT h TO US: two commentaries:
1. Pepe Escobar
The Empire’s Revenge: Set Fire to Southern Eurasia – Global South
https://globalsouth.co/2023/04/23/the-empires-revenge-set-fire-to-southern-eurasia/CheersRobert
2. Robert H:
The new Russian tanks are now showing up in quantity
Russian Army has started the combat use of newest tanks T-14 Armata against Ukrainians. In the warm-up mode for now:
Translation:
MOSCOW, April 25 – RIA Novosti. The Russian Armed Forces have begun using the latest T-14 Armata tanks to fire on Ukrainian positions, an informed source told RIA Novosti. “Russian troops have begun to use the latest Armata tanks to fire on Ukrainian positions. They have not yet participated in direct assault operations,” the source said. He specified that “T-14 Armata tanks in the NVO zone received additional protection side from anti-tank ammunition”.Since the end of last year, the crews of the T-14 “Armata” have undergone combat coordination at training grounds in one of the people’s republics of Donbass, the source added. For the first time in combat conditions, Armata tanks were tested in Syria. The main tank T-14 “Armata” was developed at the Ural Design Bureau of Transport Engineering (part of UVZ). The peculiarity of its layout is an uninhabited tower, three crew members are in an isolated armored capsule located in front of the hull. The tank has a combined multi-layer armor, a new dynamic protection “Malachite” and an active protection complex “Afganit”. The main armament of the vehicle is a 125 mm 2A82-1M smoothbore gun capable of using new guided missiles with a range of eight kilometers.
With some new artillery shells the actual range is 12 kilometers. These tanks are in serial production and are available in quantity as needed.
As for Bakhmut, it is effectively in a cauldron. So consider it fallen as it is only days before it falls. Meanwhile the clown Zelensky has order troops to fight until May 9th. In a cauldron there is no supply and all retreat all ground is under visual fire control. He has no conscience in sacrificing these troops for headlines.
The reality Is that NATO or American troops are about to enter the Ukraine. Body bags will flow back to Dover. Perhaps then Americans will wake up. Better still what fools will die for this nonsense? So do not wonder why Ukrainian troops started to give up and side with the Russians to fight Ukrainian against Ukrainian.
END
SUDAN
Shaky Start To US-Brokered Sudan Truce, Hundreds Of Thousands Flee Across Borders
TUESDAY, APR 25, 2023 – 03:00 PM
“They feel it will become a war zone. But many simply don’t have the means to leave Khartoum,” Al Jazeera’s Khartoum-based war correspondent Mohamed el-Tayeb observed Tuesday of ongoing efforts to evacuate foreigners, but which has still left no escape options for local Sudanese.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is meanwhile preparing for hundreds of thousands of people to spill over borders into neighboring countries in the coming days and weeks, with a UNHCR briefing indicating that 270,000 people will likely go into South Sudan and Chad.
More refugees are also expected to flood into Eritrea, Ethiopia, Egypt, Libya, and Central African Republic, after fighting has raged between the nation’s two top generals since April 15.
A new US-brokered ceasefire has been agreed upon as of late Monday, but it’s unclear whether it will collapse just like prior truce efforts, including one last Friday which didn’t hold, despite it being the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr.
The Associated Press reports of the latest, “Sudanese and foreigners streamed out of the capital of Khartoum and other battle zones as fighting Tuesday shook a new three-day truce brokered by the United States and Saudi Arabia, the latest attempt to pull Africa’s third-largest nation back from the abyss.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced late Monday he had helped broker the deal, and is assisting American citizens remotely in escaping the war-torn capital, after evacuation flights secured the exit of some 70 US Embassy staffers and their families.
“In Khartoum, bus stations were packed Tuesday morning with people who had spent the night there in hopes of getting on a departing bus. Drivers increased prices, sometimes tenfold, for routes to the border crossing with Egypt or the eastern Red Sea city of Port Sudan,” the AP describes. “Fuel prices have skyrocketed, to $67 a gallon from from $4.2, and prices for food and water have doubled in many cases, the Norwegian Refugee Council said.”
The death toll is approaching 500 or more, with thousands wounded, and huge swathes of the capital destroyed…
The International Committee of the Red Cross said it welcomes the ceasefire as a “potential lifesaver for civilians” who have remained largely trapped in their homes for days, often without electricity or water.
“It’s clear that this ceasefire must be implemented up and down the chain of command and that it must hold for it to give a real respite to civilians suffering from the fighting,” ICRC’s regional director for Africa, Patrick Youssef, said in a statement. He urged a “durable political solution to end the bloodshed” with the mediation of international countries.
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/
OH REALLY!!!
FDA: Vaccines Don’t Have To Prevent Infection Or Transmission
TUESDAY, APR 25, 2023 – 03:55 PM
Authored by Zachary Steieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Vaccines don’t have to prevent infection or transmission to be cleared in the United States, the country’s top regulatory agency said in a new document.
“It is important to note that FDA’s authorization and licensure standards for vaccines do not require demonstration of the prevention of infection or transmission,” Dr. Peter Marks, a top official at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), said in the document.
Marks was writing as he rejected nearly all recommendations from a group of experts that advised the FDA to update the labels for the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines.
Vaccines are traditionally known as drugs that prevent an illness. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for years said a vaccine is a product that “produces immunity” while vaccination is an injection of an infectious organism “in order to prevent the disease.” The agency changed its definitions after people correctly noted that COVID-19 vaccines do not prevent infection.
The Coalition Advocating for Adequately Labeled Medicines, a group of experts, had called for the FDA to make clear that the COVID-19 vaccines don’t prevent infection or transmission.
“There is a widespread (but inaccurate) notion that efficacy against infection and transmission have been established by substantial evidence, and that these vaccines contribute to herd immunity,” the group said, pointing to claims from President Joe Biden, the head of the CDC, and Dr. Anthony Fauci that vaccinated people would not get sick or infected.
Biden, for instance, falsely said in 2021 that “you’re not going to get COVID if you have these vaccinations.”
“To remedy this situation, language clarifying that phase III trials were not designed to determine and failed to provide substantial evidence of vaccine efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 transmission or death must be added to labels,” the coalition said. SARS-CoV-2 causes COVID-19.
While it’s uncommon to include in product labeling what a product has not been proven to do, there are cases where it’s necessary due to inaccurate assumptions, the coalition said. They pointed to the FDA stating that the influenza medicine Tamiflu “has not been shown to previous serious complications of influenza” after the drug’s manufacturer said it reduced complications by nearly half.
Marks rejected the request, writing that the petitioners included “selected statements by U.S government officials suggesting that vaccination against COVID-19 may prevent infection or transmission” but omitted statements from Fauci and others that later acknowledged vaccines don’t prevent infection or transmission.
“In responding to your Petition, we are not agreeing or disagreeing with any of the statements that are selected in the Petition,” Marks said. “Rather, we are observing that the statements referenced by the Petition do not demonstrate a commonly held belief that the clinical trials provided substantial evidence of efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We are not convinced that there is any widespread misconception about this.”
The head of the CDC, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, is among those maintaining to the present day that the vaccines at one point completely prevented transmission and symptomatic illness.
Trial data showed high efficacy against symptomatic illness but not 100 percent efficacy. Real-world data has shown lower effectiveness. The trials were not designed to measure transmission, the FDA has said in various documents.
Read more here…
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDER APR 26 Two key pieces on this Tucker firing from FOX: 1)superb past speech from Tucker that may have caused him to be fired 2)interesting take by 2nd Smartest Guy in the World (a fav of mine), Tucker-Musk? excellent speech by Tucker & the content, bravo! Tell them shove their job! 2nd Smartest Guy in the World substack is interesting ‘Tucker Carlson Fired From Fox: Introducing X “Everything App” News’ DR. PAUL ALEXANDER APR 24 Trump said he is the only POTUS candidate for 2024 who can stop WW III from unfolding; who can stop what Biden et al. have unfolded; I agree 100%; he is the only one with the capacity to do it! DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 25 SHARE SHARE SOURCE :https://twitter.com/i/status/1650299174066216961 A SOURCE:substack: 2nd Smartest Guy in the World ‘The highest rated host in the history of cable news has been fired.Given his past and Deep State ties, some may believe that Tucker Carlson is controlled opposition. Some believe that Carlson was exposing the Deep State. Either way, it matters little at this point.Carlson recently had a series of extremely well times stories:2nd Smartest Guy in the World The Most Important Tucker Carlson Segment To Date: Nixon, Ford and the Deep State The 2020 stolen election installed a senile diaper soiling ice cream eating pedo criminal puppet to both demoralize and further destroy America. George H. W. Bush was the former CIA director that was installed as president, who in turn selected his replacements in…Read more BREAKING: TUCKER CARLSON OUT AT FOX, GONE! MURDOCH MAKING MAJOR CHANGES IN LIGHT OF 800 MILLION $ SETTLEMENT VOTING MACHINES CASE ETC.DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 24 SHARE |
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| Masks Poison People with Carbon Dioxide Buildup, Study WarnsFace masks have been causing a range of severe health issues by poising people with carbon dioxide build-up, a bombshell new study is warning.READ MORE |
| CNN Fires Don Lemon: ‘I Was Informed This Morning by My Agent That I Have Been Terminated’CNN has fired Don Lemon after 17 years, the embattled host has just announced.READ MORE |
| Ballots Cast by ‘Ineligible Voters’ Found in Wisconsin’s 2020 Election ResultsOfficials in Wisconsin have made the bombshell admission that ballots cast by “ineligible voters” have been found counted in the state’s 2020 presidential election results.READ MORE |
| Tucker Carlson Out at Fox NewsTucker Carlson has parted ways with Fox News, the network revealed today.READ MORE |
| Comedy Legend Shares Heartbreaking Diagnosis: ‘Out of the Blue, the Sh*t Hit the Fan’Comedy legend Richard Lewis has shared a heartbreaking diagnosis with fans after dealing with a number of health issues over the last three years.READ MORE |
| Susan Rice Out at White HouseSusan Rice is stepping down from her position as Democrat President Joe Biden’s domestic policy adviser, the White House has confirmed.READ MORE |
| Bill Maher Humiliates Hollywood A-Listers, Spills Beans on Secret ‘Cancel Culture’ MeetingLiberal host Bill Maher has humiliated Hollywood A-listers by calling them out for their hypocrisy and cowardice on his hit HBO show “Real Time.”READ MORE |
| Bud Light Puts Second Marketing Executive on ‘Leave of Absence’ amid Dylan Mulvaney FalloutAnheuser-Busch has placed a second marketing executive on a “leave of absence” due to the growing fallout of the disastrous Bud Light campaign featuring transgender Dylan Mulvaney.READ MORE |
| Ranchers Raise Alarm as Cattle Found Dead and Mutilated in TexasTexas ranchers are raising the alarm after finding several cattle dead and mutilated.READ MORE |
| AOC Demands Tucker Carlson and Other Critics Banned from TVRadical Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) has called for Tucker Carlson and other reporters critical of the Democrats to be banned from TV by the federal government.READ MORE |
| Biden Launching Major Crackdown on Power Plants That Fuel America’s GridDemocrat President Joe Biden’s administration is preparing to launch a major crackdown on key power plants across America, according to reports.READ MORE |
| New Zealand’s Strongest Man Enters Women’s Weightlifting Competition to Protest Transgender AthletesNew Zealand’s strongest man has registered to compete in a women’s weightlifting competition after the organizers agreed to allow biological male transgender athletes to compete as females.READ MORE |
| 19,000 Dead People Registered to Vote in Virginia, Election Officials AdmitElection officials in Virginia have announced this week that they found 19,000 dead people registered to vote in the state.READ MORE |
| VACCINE IMPACT The Myth of “Fossil Fuels” and the Myth that the U.S. is Transitioning Away from Oil to “Green” Energy April 24, 2023 10:44 pm  The United States has been the world’s most dominant economic nation since World War 2, and the primary way they have maintained their empire has been by controlling the world’s oil and energy. But the world is quickly changing as more and more people wake up to the fact that the Ukraine war has been a proxy war between the U.S. and Russia, and that the goal of the U.S. has been to cut off Europe, which does not produce near enough oil to meet the needs of its population, from the cheap energy they were importing from Russia. The blowing up of the Nord Stream pipeline was part of that strategy, to force Europe to start buying more of their energy from the U.S. instead of Russia. But the rest of the world is striking back now, and quickly abandoning the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency, which has been called the “petrol dollar,” being the currency that the world has used to trade oil. In order to convince the American public to support the endless wars the U.S. has engaged in since the end of WW II, which have primarily been wars to control the world’s oil, they have had to engage in decades of propaganda spreading lies and myths to justify their military actions. So let’s dispel some of these myths regarding energy and oil, including the myth that petroleum is a “fossil fuel” and not “renewable.”Read More… |
MICHAEL EVERY/RABOBANK//
“This Changes All Your Economic And Market Forecasts”
TUESDAY, APR 25, 2023 – 09:50 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Oh Sugar!
A spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down. However, sugar is now up over 40% year-to-date, and the monetary policy medicine is coming up with it. Sugar is usually a cheap ingredient in almost everything we eat or drink – and now it’s another example of supply-side shocks not going away. Olive oil is already echoing sugar, and what if the Black Sea Grain Deal fails too? Rates are going to go higher and stay higher.
- The ECB’s Wunsch said rate hikes won’t stop until wage growth slows, and 4% is a possible ECB peak: that’s as the union responsible for distribution of sugar, olive oil, etc., at the biggest Dutch supermarket chain is on strike demanding a 14% raise and a lump sum. The ECB’s Schnabel said 50bps is not off the table for their next meeting.
- In the US, the Fed is on blackout ahead of another hike in May, but a headline runs ‘Critics warn US Inflation Reduction Act could keep prices high’ due to a scramble for workers, and the Wall Street Journal says ‘Weapons Makers Can’t Hire Enough Workers as Ukraine War Drives Demand: Rising geopolitical tensions have boosted military spending, prompting an industrywide hiring spree’. Reported CEO quotes from quarterly earnings calls include: “You’re starting to see a true sort of reshoring sort of industrial manufacturing growth,” and, “I want to just mention the excitement we have around the onshoring of manufacturing. It’s strong, and it keeps pushing forward projects such as the semiconductor chip plants, data centres, EV facilities, both the assembly facilities as well as the battery plants that are in our backlog.”
- In Australia, as Ben Picton notes in ‘Labour Pains’, the jobs market is extraordinarily tight too, and labour bargaining power may finally be increasing.
That does not imply an imminent sugary pivot, or even a saccharine pause as precursor. Or so the hedge funds diving into new US Treasury short positions think. Worse, this looks structural.
As the press notes a surge in global defence spending to new record –nominal– highs, Germany’s pledged EUR100bn hasn’t bought any bang so far, leaving the EU unable to defend itself out of a wet paper bag; Australia’s strategic defence review called its armed forces “not fit for purpose”, requiring massive investment and the development of domestic supply chains; Poland is spending 4% of GDP on defense without knowing where the money will come from; and the US hints it might need to double defence spending. Against this backdrop, Bloomberg underlines ‘What a New Cold War Means for Central Banks’:
“The battle against soaring prices is little more than a year old and central banks need to gird for the next big trial: Serving their nations in a world defined by protracted competition between the US and China. Policymakers will be reluctant cold war warriors – they are more comfortable aiming at inflation targets and tinkering with guidance on interest rates than fending off strategic adversaries. Unfortunately, they don’t have the luxury of sitting this out.”
As Lagarde said last week, and I said years ago, at least partial monetization of fiscal spending on defence and supply chains looms. This changes all your economic and market forecasts unless you are: (1) in denial; or (2) think geopolitical problems just ‘go away’.
On which, here’s where you might need a sugar hit to get through the Daily:
- Tucker Carlson was canned from Fox News, Don Lemon at CNN, and Susan Rice at the White House. A member of the Fugees is on trial for being a Chinese agent; a prominent Chinese journalist faces inverse charges there. Note the zeitgeist – changes are sweeping in.
- Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov told the UN Security Council that: “As was case in Cold War, we have reached the dangerous, possibly even more dangerous, threshold.”
- China deleted the interview transcript of its Ambassador to France saying former-Soviet states have no legal status. However, as the South China Morning Post notes: “China’s questioning sovereignty of post-Soviet states is tit-for-tat over Taiwan: Beijing would not care about their international status if only the West would stop weaponizing the island against the mainland.” Yet the EU is now talking about sending its navies to sail in the Taiwan Strait.
- The Financial Times has an op-ed, ‘How to stop a war between America and China’, noting in DC the talk is of a probable, not possible, conflict. Not long ago, many were denying there would be a Cold War: now that seems the best outcome, if the US can persuade China to enter into a period of 70’s-style détente. Unfortunately, the author concludes it is unlikely to happen, and the article doesn’t offer a realistic way to do what its title says.
- In Foreign Policy, Adam Tooze argues ‘America Has Dictated Its Economic Peace Terms to China’, and concludes, “By refusing negotiation over China’s rise, the United States might be making conflict inevitable.” In short, the US is saying China can rise if it isn’t *this* kind of China; Yellen’s speech last week offered a new modus vivendi – the old trade order with geopolitical guardrails for national security in key sectors. However, the political dynamic on both sides may already be beyond that point due to a lack of trust.
- If so, this isn’t going to be a short-term or a limited problem if so. It will impact all of us, everywhere, for years and years in different ways.
- Tellingly, the US-China wargame recently held by the US Congressional Committee on the CCP saw Team ‘Blue’ kick China off of SWIFT; Team ‘Red’ said “No electronics for you’ in response. In short, global capital and trade flows collapsed.
This subject matter — war risk and global architecture collapse— is beyond the skillset or mindset of the average market participant, or so overwhelming that they simply don’t know what to do with it. I get that. Taleb-style, everyone is a fat, happy, well-fed Turkey until just before Christmas.
But should they really forecast in a geopolitical vacuum, with the above headlines flashing, the lessons of Ukraine just over a year old, rearmament underway, and central banks now shifting towards a quasi-war economy to fund it before any shooting starts outside Ukraine and Sudan?
Apparently it does. Almost all the market analysis you will read today is counting the same old beans, twiddling thumbs, or rearranging intellectual meme deckchairs on the Titanic. An industry which likes to pretend it can predict the future is looking the other way at key geopolitical risks which AT THE VERY LEAST point to much higher inflation FOR MUCH LONGER than is currently being priced for. Logically, there is no way rates are going to come down again quickly, and stay down, unless that new liquidity is of use against the big picture national security backdrop above.
Then again, the same markets can’t even grasp what’s going on in sugar. Which is why we are all deep in it.
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.1016 DOWN.0042
USA/ YEN 134.21 UP 0.110 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2427 DOWN 0.0071
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3590 UP .0062 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 62 PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 10.54 PTS OR 0.32%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 342.06 PTS OR 1.71%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .14% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 342.06 PTS OR 1.71 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 10.84 PTS OR 0.32%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.14%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 26.55 PTS OR 0.09%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1977,75
silver:$24.54
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 101.33 UP 26 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s close.
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 00 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.2112% DOWN 11 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.474 % UP 0 AND 5//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.422 DOWN 10 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.265 DOWN 10 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.3760 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0976 DOWN 0.0080 or 80 basis points
USA/Japan: 133.92 DOWN 0.159 OR YEN UP 16 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2400 DOWN .0098 OR 98 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0093 OR 93 BASIS pts to 1.3626
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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN.(6.9290)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. 6.9463
TURKISH LIRA: 19.42 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WISH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.474…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 10 in basis points from MONDAY at 3.420% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.652 DOWN 8 IN BASIS POINTS
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.0416% DOWN 10 in basis points.
USA dollar index, 101.60 UP 53 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 19.56 points or .25%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 11.94 PTS OR .08%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 40.07 PTS OR 0.53%
Spain IBEX DOWN 110.80 PTS OR 1.18%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 255.03 PTS OR 0.93%
WTI Oil price 76.94 12: EST
Brent Oil: 80.69. 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// REMAINS AT: 81.62/ ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 30//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3760 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.7185 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0974 DOWN 0.0083 OR 83 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2412 DOWN 0087 or 87 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.7185% DOWN 10 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 133.53 DOWN 0.555 //YEN UP 56 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3629 UP .0096 CDN dollar, DOWN 96 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 77.18
Brent OIL: 80.74
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 12 BASIS pts to 3.396%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 8 BASIS PTS to 3.654%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 20 PTS AT 3.9417%
USA dollar index: 101.65 UP 48 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 19.43
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 81.6175 DOWN 0 AND 29/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 344,57 PTS OR 1.02%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 244.65 PTS OR 1.89%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.50 UP 2.61 PTS (15.45)%
GLD: $185.75 UP 0.94 OR 0.51%
SLV/ $22.99 UP 0.01 OR 0.05%
end
USA AFFAIRS
1 a) USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
‘Zombified’ Banks, Soaring US Risk, & Liquidity-Suck Spark Plunge In Stocks & Bond Yields
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, APR 25, 2023 – 04:01 PM
Extreme positioning (bonds record short) meets macro weakness (sentiment and soft data crashing) meets liquidity suck (M2 collapsing) meets systemic threats (debt ceiling) meets idiosyncratic problems (FRC – banking system, and UPS – consumer) – quite a day!!
The world and his pet rabbit started the day off short Treasuries…
An ugly day for US macro didn’t help (aside from new home sales which jumped on giant subsidies)…
Source: Bloomberg
And liquidity is collapsing more (M2 down over 4% YoY)…
Source: Bloomberg
FRC reported far worse than expected deposit outflows and yesterday’s gains were eviscerated to take the stock down 50% back to record lows (and reignite banking crisis fears), accelerated to the downside by talk of asset sales (which if they can actually pull off would be a good thing)…
For some more context, FRC was trading $120 just six weeks ago… and is now below $8…
USA Sovereign risk soared once again to a new record as the X-Date looms closer amid dismal tax receipts…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields tumbled today with the short-end dramatically outperforming (2Y -14bps, 30Y -6bps) extending the short-squeeze from last Tuesday…
Source: Bloomberg
2Y yields tumbled below 4.00%
Source: Bloomberg
The market has now priced out a full 25bps rate-hike this year…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (3m10Y) flattened notably today (-12bps to -167bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
The Fed Funds curve has tumbled notably this week…
Source: Bloomberg
Small Caps were the ugliest horse in the glue factory today, followed by Nasdaq (-1.9%) and the S&P (down 1.6%). The Dow was the least bad of the majors, down 1% on the day…
This is the first close down more than 1% for the S&P in over a month
The S&P held at critical support, with the next stop down to its 50DMA at around 4033…
1-Day VIX exploded higher today, from an 8 handle to above 16, compressing its spread to VIX…
Source: Bloomberg
Turns out VVIX was right after all…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar surged back to recent highs today (which looks like safe-haven bid as STIRs dived dovishly)…
Source: Bloomberg
Crypto was quiet for a change with Bitcoin very modestly higher, holding around $27,500…
Source: Bloomberg
Spot Gold rallied back above $2,000 twice today but was unable to hold it…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices clipped lower with WTI briefly back to a $76 handle…
Finally, worsening liquidity conditions and significant event risk coming ever closer is a decidedly negative set of circumstances. Yet despite this, there seems to be a general consensus that a) the debt ceiling will be avoided; and b) the uncertainty in the run up to X-Day is unlikely to have a notable market impact.
However, today’s price action – especially in 0DTE, where there was a regime-shift from fading market trends to becoming an ‘accelerant flow’ – suggests fear is starting to mount that both a) and b) reflect too much complacency after all…
The debt ceiling – coming in the wake of banking stress and a slowing economy – may just be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel’s back.
Can MSFT and GOOGL change that sentiment back tonight?
END
.i b Morning trading:
Early morning trading:
II) USA DATA//
Huge incentives help provide this spike in sales
(zerohedge)
US New Home Sales Spike In March As Incentives Soar
TUESDAY, APR 25, 2023 – 10:09 AM
After existing home sales slowed in March (after the brief bounce on lower mortgage rates), new home sales were expected to decline 1.3% MoM in March (the latest print), but by way of the magic of The Census Bureua, New home sales soared 9.6% MoM
Source: Bloomberg
That surprise jump lifted the SAAR to its highest since March 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Supply continues to contract (some might say ‘normalize’). There were 432,000 new homes for sale as of the end of last month, the lowest since April. That represents 7.6 months of supply at the current sales rate. …
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, the number of homes sold, but not yet started, continues to rise, surging to 168K, from 149K, the highest since Feb 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Mortgage rates had risen during this period, suggesting homebuilder incentives were extreme to say the least…
Source: Bloomberg
Is this what Powell wants to see?
END
This tells us the mood of the consumer: it is not good!
(zerohedge)
Conference Board Confidence Slumps In April, Inflation Expectations Remain High
TUESDAY, APR 25, 2023 – 10:18 AM
After a brief rebound in March, The Conference Board consumer confidence index slipped lower (lowest since June) as expectations sank back near 9 year lows while current conditions were modestly higher…
Source: Bloomberg
The Expectations Index has now remained below 80 – the level associated with a recession within the next year – every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022.
The survey was fielded from April 3 – about three weeks after the bank failures in the United States – to April 19.
“While consumers’ relatively favorable assessment of the current business environment improved somewhat in April, their expectations fell and remain below the level which often signals a recession looming in the short-term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board.
“Consumers became more pessimistic about the outlook for both business conditions and labor markets. Compared to last month, fewer households expect business conditions to improve and more expect worsening of conditions in the next six months. They also expect fewer jobs to be available over the short term. April’s decline in consumer confidence reflects particular deterioration in expectations for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over.”
Meanwhile, April’s results show consumer inflation expectations over the next 12 months remain essentially unchanged from March at 6.2 percent – although that level is down substantially from the peak of 7.9 percent reached last year, it is still elevated…
Source: Bloomberg
Overall purchasing plans for homes, autos, appliances, and vacations all pulled back in April, a signal that consumers may be economizing amid growing pessimism.
Finally, the Conference Board’s measure of labor market tightness worsened (less jobs plentiful vs hard to get) in March…
Source: Bloomberg
Slowly but surely Powell is getting his way on employment… but crushing the economy and sentiment on the way.
END
All of these regional fed mfg reports show contraction
(zerohedge)
‘Hope’ Hits Pre-Trump Lows As Regional Fed Surveys Slump
TUESDAY, APR 25, 2023 – 10:40 AM
This morning has seen a slew of regional Fed survey data (following yesterday’s dismal Dallas Fed Manufacturing data).
Things started on a weak note with the Philly Fed Services index plummeting from -12.8 to -22.8 – the weakest since the COVID lockdowns collapse and negative for 8 of the last 9 months…
Source: Bloomberg
The indicators for firm-level general activity, new orders, and sales/revenues all declined, and firms surveyed continued to report overall increases in prices.
Next up was Richmond Fed’s Manufacturing Index, which was also uglier than expected.
The composite manufacturing index fell from -5 in March to -10 in April (worse than the -8 exp).
Two of its three component indexes – shipments and new orders – declined.
Firms remained pessimistic about local business conditions, as the index fell to -19 in April.
Furthermore, the expectations index for future local business conditions edged down slightly again.
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, Dallas Fed Services survey printed in contraction for the 11th straight month…
Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen in April, though pessimism waned slightly. Respondents’ expectations regarding future business activity were mixed in April.
The future general business activity index remained negative but largely unchanged at -13.0. The future revenue index stayed positive but fell eight points to 26.0.
- The bank failures have slowed capital commitments and services.
- We are seeing a decrease in transactions. Clients relate that there is uncertainty as to cap rates, and buyers and sellers are not on the same page.
- The looming potential of a full-blown recession, coupled with a continuing increase in prices has caused many business owners to hold off making any major changes in their business.
- We are concerned about the commercial real estate industry and an increase in defaults.
- A number of apartment owners are being squeezed hard right now and are getting further and further behind. Debt service (for those with floating rates and insufficient rate caps), insurance and property taxes are killing them. Some aren’t going to make it.
- Clients are becoming more stressed about finances. Homeowners are spending less money, and clients’ revenues are down, which trickles down to us. I still have to maintain a certain staffing model to perform services with decreased revenue and the high cost of credit; I am unable to pay myself wages at this time.
- Our demand continues to soften given macroeconomic uncertainty.
- The economy is starting to stall due to interest rates being higher.
- Higher interest rates are starting to affect profitability due to increased costs to finance new-vehicle inventories.
All of which leaves ‘soft’ survey data dismally low relative to ‘hard’ data expectations – which is also starting to fade…
Source: Bloomberg
Simply put – hope is at its lowest level since before Trump was elected.
end
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Sam Zell states that remote work is nonsense and counterproductive
(zerohedge)
Remote Work Is “Bulls**t”, Says CRE Billionaire Sam Zell
MONDAY, APR 24, 2023 – 10:40 PM
Real estate mogul Sam Zell told an audience of New York University graduate students that remote work is a “bunch of bullshit” and they should dismiss the idea of working from home, according to commercial real estate news website GlobeSt.
“One of the biggest lies in the world is that people working from home are more productive than people working in the office,” Zell told the audience at NYU SPS Schack Institute of Real Estate’s annual REIT Symposium, held at NYC’s Pierre Hotel on Fifth Avenue, on Wednesday.
“You have much less productivity if you’re working from home in your pajamas with three little kids running around than if you’re in an office,” he continued.
When asked about the current state of the office market and the impact of work, Zell provided this answer:
“I wouldn’t want to be an owner of a lot of Class B offices right now.”
The billionaire made it clear that remote work trends are temporary:
“On the first day of Covid, nobody was in our office. Six months later, everyone was in our office—and they have been for over two years.”
He said many professional skills critical for young people are developed in office environments, and working from home stymies that.
“There’s an enormous difference between a Zoom board meeting and a meeting in person.
“A Zoom board meeting is a board meeting where everyone sits and listens to recitations. An in-person meeting is where the real discussion takes place.”
Zell’s view on remote work is biased, considering he’s made much of his fortune in the CRE space, and remote work has led to rising vacancy rates and sliding property value.
The gold-standard measure of office occupancy trends is the card-swipe data provided by Kastle Systems. The average office occupancy nationwide is around 46%, still well off the highs from pre-pandemic levels.
We have cited the regional bank turmoil as likely going to have spillover effects in the CRE space — especially the office sector. JPM, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs have all joined the gloom parade, warning about impending CRE turmoil.
end
Prepare for chaos as payments for student loans are set to restart
(zerohedge)
Student Loan Servicers Prepare For Chaos As Payments Set To Restart
TUESDAY, APR 25, 2023 – 09:35 AM
Companies which service student loans are preparing for chaos, as an unprecedented 44 million borrowers will resume payments later this summer following the expiration of a November 2022 extension of a pandemic-era pause, which stipulates that payments must resume by August 30, 2023.
“I think the real challenge is the resource constraint, right? That’s really on the customer service side,” said Student Loan Servicing Alliance (SLSA) executive director, Scott Buchanan, in a statement to The Hill. “Systemically, we can handle this, but that customer service component is going to be constrained, and that’s because the [Education] Department has continued to make cuts to the customer service funding for student loan servicers.”
According to SLSA, a nonprofit trade association that deals with servicing issues, its members are “responsible for servicing over 95% of all federal student loans and the vast majority of private loans.”
That said, the lack of funding for customer service centers falls on the shoulders of Congress, which denied increased funding for the Federal Student Aid (FSA) office last year.
“It’s important to think about this holistically,” said said Sarah Sattelmeyer, project director for education, opportunity, and mobility in the higher education initiative at New America. “FSA’s budget constraints are certainly affecting servicers. And I think that’s an incredibly huge problem because it affects the ability to effectively have a student loan support system. … All of the things that FSA has on its plate — it’s never had more things on its plate. There’s a lot of new reforms coming down the pipe, and a lack of funding is really impacting its ability to do all of that work.“
According to the Department of Education, the funding Congress allocated for the FSA was more than enough.
“As the Department has repeatedly made clear, restarting repayment requires significant resources to avoid unnecessary harm to borrowers, such as cuts to servicing,” said a spokesperson.
In preparation for student loan payments turning back on, the Education Department has announced multiple initiatives they say will make the transition easier for borrowers, including reforming the income-driven repayment (IDR) system so some borrowers wind up owing as low as $0 a month.
The department is still hoping the Supreme Court won’t kill President Biden’s student debt forgiveness program, though that will require it and the student loan servicers to take on the Herculean task of sweeping debt relief and loan repayment resumption at the same time. -The Hill
According to Spencer Orenstein, an officer on student borrower success for the Pew Charitable Trusts, of the 400,000 borrowers tracked over a five year period, 80% had interactions with their student loan servicer.
“Even prior to this, we were in a system where servicers played a very important role,” he said.
Buchanan, meanwhile, thinks there could be a ripple effect of negative consequences which reverberates throughout the entire system.
“The department has meaningfully reduced the amount of resources we have and people we can put on the phones. That’s going to be a challenge where we will probably have longer hold time, and processing time for requests and applications could take a lot longer than usual,” he said, adding: “We clearly communicated to the department the consequences, them knowing we need customer service and them making these kinds of cuts. Those discussions absolutely happened.”
As of now, around 44 million borrowers haven’t had to make payments on their student loans.
end
the state of affairs with respect to First Republic bank. They need to sell up to $100 billion in asset sales to repay the emergency
loans
(zerohedge)
First Republic Weighing Up To $100BN In Asset Sales To Repay Emergency Fed, FHLB Loans
TUESDAY, APR 25, 2023 – 01:00 PM
Yesterday, when discussing the First Republic Bank Q1 earnings, we said that while the collapse in deposits (which plunged from $170BN to $70BN excluding the $30BN emergency deposit injection by a bank consortium) was scary, the potential saving grace is that FRC still had $170BN in loans, i.e., assets… loans which as Bloomberg previously reported were collateralized largely by largely money-good Hamptons real estate.
In fact, one can argue that after the next recession and the next QE, it will be Hamptons real estate that will once again be the outperformer as a new batch of nouveau-riche billionaires scramble to bid up the supply-limited housing.
The problem, however, is that many of these loans are IO (or Interest-Only), which locks the bank in for a long period of time without any substantial cash inflows (these kick in only after several years). And, of course, First Republic needs cash now in order to not only pay down its existing untenable capital structure, but to survive.
That’s why yesterday we said that one way the company can survive, is if it can sell many/most of its loans at anything close to par, it could actually survive as it could then pay down the Fed, FHLB, JPM and others, and restart operations as an ordinary bank.
Well, it appears we were on to something because moments ago Bloomberg reported that FRC is doing just this, and is “exploring divesting $50 billion to $100 billion of long-dated securities and mortgages as part of a broader rescue plan.”
The report echoes what we said, namely that any sales would help reduce the bank’s asset-liability mismatch, and furthermore, also notes that “potential buyers, including large US banks, could potentially receive warrants or preferred equity as an incentive to buy assets above their market value.”
Ah yes, the market value of said loans – the one disconnect for all those claiming that this is an idiosyncratic FRC crisis, not a systemic one (because heaven forbid other banks are mismarking trillions in loans well above market).
The reality is that a potential buyer with a healthy balance sheet wouldn’t even need a sweetener: all they need is the ability to weather the current downturn, and then sell the RE-backed loans during the next housing upturn (courtesy of the Fed’s ZIRP), at which point all purchased loans will be well in the money.
The rest of the story is well-known:
The lender is trying to shore up its balance sheet to avoid being seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and clear the path for a possible capital raise, the person said. It may need the US government to facilitate negotiations with some of the country’s largest banks to stabilize the lender as it executes its turnaround, the person added. That would be a much cheaper alternative than a failure of the company.
Following yesterday’s earnings, where the investing public focused on the bank’s collapsing deposits while ignoring the potential capital that the $170BN in loans could generated, First Republic fell as much as 30%. Meanwhile, the shorts are piling on and according to S3 Partners, some 33% of the float is now short.
USA COVID//
END
SWAMP STORIES
Here is the background on the firing of Tucker Carlson. It seems that the pharmaceutical industry wanted him out
(zerohedge)
Tucker Carlson Fired By Lachlan Murdoch; Here’s What We Know
TUESDAY, APR 25, 2023 – 05:44 AM
Update (2114ET): After an entire day wondering why in the hell Fox News would can the highest-rated cable news host in the world, ever, the New York Times comes out with this;
Who:
The decision to let Mr. Carlson go was made on Friday night by Lachlan Murdoch, the chief executive of Fox Corporation, and Suzanne Scott, chief executive of Fox News Media, according to a person briefed on the move. Mr. Carlson was informed on Monday morning by Ms. Scott, another person briefed on the move said.
Why?
[T]he power that Mr. Carlson, 53, wielded outside Fox News could not insulate him from a growing list of troubles inside the network related to his conduct on and off the air, some of which had been grating on Mr. Murdoch and his father, Rupert Murdoch, the chairman of Fox Corporation, who co-founded the network in 1996, according to the two people with knowledge of the company’s decision.
…
The host, a polarizing and unpopular figure at the network outside of his own staff, was exposed as part of a defamation lawsuit by Dominion Voting Systems as a bully who denigrated colleagues and sources, often in profane and sexist language, and called for the firing of Fox journalists whose coverage he disliked. He has also drawn condemnation from the right and left for his role in fostering a revisionist account of the assault on the United States Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
So he was mean to people?
We also know that last week, Tucker attacked Big Pharma in one of his monologues.
Oh, there’s more:
One early point of contention was Mr. Carlson’s 2021 documentary, “Patriot Purge,” which advanced the conspiracy theory that the attack that day was a so-called false flag operation designed to discredit the former president and his political movement. Lachlan Murdoch was said to have been caught off guard by the program, which also led two conservative Fox News contributors to quit in protest, Jonah Goldberg and Stephen Hayes.
In March, Mr. Carlson edited down tens of thousands of hours of footage from the attack given to him by Speaker Kevin McCarthy and used them to falsely portray the rioters as people Mr. Carlson called “mostly peaceful” onlookers who had innocently ambled into the Capitol. The broadcast drew a rebuke from Senator Mitch McConnell, who is a friend of Rupert Murdoch’s and said Mr. Carlson had drawn “offensive and misleading conclusions.”
So he showed the public the January 6th footage and dared question the event.
The Times also says that one of Carlson’s former producers said he ran a “toxic” workplace.
And yet, is any of that worth giving up tens of millions in Tucker-related ad revenue? It seems that if you routinely question the regime, it is.
* * *
Tucker Carlson, the highest rated cable news host in history, is out at Fox News. The news comes days after the network cut ties with host Dan Bongino 48 hours after the network settled with Dominion Voting Systems for nearly $800 million.
“Fox News Media and Tucker Carlson have agreed to part ways,” reads a statement from the network, which thanks him for his service “as a host and prior to that as a contributor.”
Carlson’s executive producer, Justin Wells, is also out at the network according to Semafor.
According to the statement, Carlson’s last show was Friday, April 21st as he continued to dominate, and his slot will now be filled by ‘an interim show helmed by rotating FOX News personalities until a new host is named.”
Full statement from the network (emphasis ours),:
FOX News Media and Tucker Carlson have agreed to part ways. We thank him for his service to the network as a host and prior to that as a contributor.
Mr. Carlson’s last program was Friday April 21st. Fox News Tonight will air live at 8 PM/ET starting this evening as an interim show helmed by rotating FOX News personalities until a new host is named.
FOX News Media operates the FOX News Channel (FNC), FOX Business Network (FBN), FOX News Digital, FOX News Audio, FOX News Books, the direct-to-consumer streaming services FOX Nation and FOX News International and the free ad- supported television service FOX Weather. Currently the number one network in all of cable, FNC has also been the most watched television news channel for more than 21 consecutive years, while FBN ranks among the top business channels on cable. Owned by Fox Corporation, FOX News Media reaches nearly 200 million people each month.
Shares of 21st Century Fox dropped like a rock on the news, and is now sitting at January lows (the drop in FOXA’s market cap is around the same as the settlement with Dominion).
One of Carlson’s last monologues at Fox…
Were Carlson and Bongino sacrificed as part of the settlement?
And where to next?
Rumble..?
Twitter…?
end
THE KING REPORT
| The King Report April 25, 2023 Issue 6976 | Independent View of the News |
| At U.S. behest, Ukraine held off anniversary attacks on Russia Kyiv’s head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, planned bold strikes deep behind enemy lines that unnerved officials in Washington Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the country’s military intelligence directorate, the HUR, instructed one of his officers “to get ready for mass strikes on 24 February … with everything the HUR had,” according to a classified report from the U.S. National Security Agency. Officials even mused about a sea-based strike using TNT in the Black Sea port city of Novorossiysk, a largely symbolic operation that would nevertheless demonstrate Ukraine’s ability to hit deep inside enemy territory. Back in Washington, officials were secretly monitoring the Ukrainians’ plans. The White House had long worried that attacks inside Russia could provoke an aggressive response from the Kremlin… Officials in Washington and Europe have admonished Ukraine for attacks outside its territory that they felt went too far…The United States prohibits Ukraine from using American weaponry to strike Russia. One Ukrainian official, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity… Ukrainian officials have long privately said that the United States has de facto control over some military operations.. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/24/discord-leaks-moscow-strikes-ukraine/ Susan Rice stepping down as Biden’s domestic policy adviser (The de facto POTUS for domestic affairs is out!) Susan Rice (Obama puppet) is out of the White House, President Biden announces As Director of the Domestic Policy Council, Rice drove the formulation and implementation of Biden’s domestic policy agenda… (Is she exiting on her own or did Dr. Jill, POUTS in waiting, push her out?) https://www.foxnews.com/politics/susan-rice-stepping-down-bidens-domestic-policy-adviser @NickTimiraos: Former Dallas Fed chief Rob Kaplan thinks we’re in the early stage of banking woes. He gave a recent interview that is striking (and I relied quite a bit in this column) because it hits different notes compared to recent Fed speak teeing up a May hike. Kaplan thinks there are more shoes to drop in the banking mess because we haven’t gotten to potential credit losses. The Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program stabilized banks, but it’s like a ventilator, he says. “You don’t want to be on a ventilator for the rest of your life.” Why the Banking Mess Isn’t Over – Deposit flight and higher funding costs risk squeezing small businesses beyond big cities (Kaplan cites ‘held to maturity’ losses at banks) https://t.co/TTDaMICCnR @carlquintanilla: APOLLO: “Data from downtowns show that cellphone activity in San Francisco is at 31% of pre-pandemic levels. New York is at 74%; Chicago is at 50%; Boston is at 54%… This has implications for retail, restaurants, and office.” [Slok] https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1650458871494848513 Disney laying off thousands in second round of job cuts Walt Disney Co. announced in February that it would trim its payroll by 7,000 jobs https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/disney-laying-off-thousands-second-round-job-cuts ESMs traded lower when the Nikkei opened and continued to fall until a rally materialized 20 minutes after the 3 ET European opening. The rally persisted until 10:30 ET on pattern buying for a Monday. Alas, ESMs and stocks then broke down due to weakness in Fangs, which begin to report results today. Tesla led Fangs lower and was -3.11% near the 11:30 ET European close. After a 25-handle decline, ESMs formed a bottom at 12:16 ET. It was time for a Noon Balloon; it turned into an afternoon rally that persisted until 14:03 ET. After a mild 43 minutes retreat, ESMs and stocks rose for the expected final-hour upward manipulation. However, the last-hour rally was modest and listless Positive aspects of previous session 31-handle ESM rally from 3:20 ET until 10:30 ET; midday to late afternoon equity rally Bonds rallied as much as 1 point Negative aspects of previous session Tesla led most Fangs lower Trading was very lethargic, especially for a Monday Ambiguous aspects of previous session Why have equities been struggling with very strong upward seasonal biases? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4132.41 Previous session High/Low: 4142.41; 4117.77 Tucker Carlson leaving Fox News – His last show on Fox was on Friday. (Devastating for Fox!) It is unclear why Carlson is leaving the network. (Had by far, the biggest audience in cable TV!) https://justthenews.com/accountability/media/tucker-carlson-leaving-fox-news Fox press release on Carlson: https://twitter.com/KatieDaviscourt/status/1650528136281620480/photo/1 Fox Corporation Chair Rubert Murdoch made the final decision to part ways with Tucker Carlson — The Los Angeles Times Fox Axed ‘Uncontrollable’ Host Carlson, Who Badmouthed Bosses – Bloomberg Lachlan Murdoch made the decision to fire him Friday night… Class A shares of Fox fell 5.3% after news host Tucker Carlson was leaving the company broke. – DJ @RobertKennedyJr: Fox fires Tucker Carlson five days after he crosses the red line by acknowledging that the TV networks pushed a deadly and ineffective vaccine to please their Pharma advertisers. Carlson’s breathtakingly courageous April 19 monologue broke TV’s two biggest rules: Tucker told the truth about how greedy Pharma advertisers controlled TV news content and he lambasted obsequious newscasters for promoting jabs they knew to be lethal and worthless… Fox just demonstrated the terrifying power of Big Pharma. Rupert Murdoch has fired his most successful host. Why? “It was the older Aussie,” says my source: “the ninety-two-year old-who just called off his engagement and settled for 800 million so that he wouldn’t have to go to Wilmington.” (The Fox/Dominion trial was held in Wilmington, Delaware.)… https://thespectator.com/topic/rupert-murdoch-fired-tucker-carlson-fox-news-greatest-asset/ The reasons behind Tucker Carlson’s shock Fox News exit The reasons for Carlson’s shock departure are unclear — Cockburn understands from a source with knowledge that no reason was given. People at Fox are said to be “blindsided” and “upset.”… “Tucker’s texts actually looked worse because they came across as hypocritical: that he was smarter than the audience, that he actually dislikes Trump,” a source told Cockburn… “This could only have happened with Murdoch in the driving seat,” another source told Cockburn. “He hates when any of his ‘employees’ get too big for their boots… (“There is no fool like an old fool.”) “There will be a cleaning of house now, led by Murdoch. Lachlan, languishing most days in Sydney because his wife hates America, is just a spectator.”… https://thespectator.com/topic/tucker-carlson-out-fox-news-reasons-rupert-murdoch/ @ggreenwald: From 8pm to 9pm on Fox, there was extreme, even fundamental, disagreements between Tucker and Hannity on those key issues – the kind of internal debate unthinkable on any other network: in lockstep. I’d wager the new 8pm host will be far more aligned with Hannity: standard GOP… A major irony is that Tucker’s separation from Fox may be the best thing that could happen to him.. The sector of media growing most explosively are independent platforms. Joe Rogan is vastly more influential than every MSNBC and CNN host… What people most distrust are media corporations, and what they crave most are authentic voices that come only with independence. Babylon Bee: Fox News Fires the Only Reason People Watch Fox News https://buff.ly/441ekxi Carlson found out he was being let go about 10 minutes before Fox announced his departure: WSJ Over the weekend, AOC called for Fox to fire Carlson. A few weeks ago, Schumer called for Fox to can Carlson. This makes Fox look even worse now. https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1650184688508583936 https://twitter.com/DrewHLive/status/1650549680668033025 CBS’s “60 Minutes” on Sunday gave Ray Epps, of Jan 6 infamy, a forum to impugn Tucker Carlson. @60Minutes: “He’s obsessed with me,” Ray Epps says of Fox News host Tucker Carlson. “He’s … [trying] to destroy my life.” https://twitter.com/60Minutes/status/1650280192932294656 Carlson should sue AOC, Schumer, and others that demanded his termination or censorship. CNN fired controversial personality Don Lemon after the Carlson news broke. The new executive management at CNN is trying to return CNN to its past glory. Numerous pundits opine that CNN should now higher Carlson, which would both boost CNN and harm Fox. PS – Carlson’s executive producer, Justin Wells, has also exited Fox. @WallStreetSilv: In a shocking development … Jim Cramer is still employed at CNBC. Today – The first large batch of earnings results arrives. Microsoft and Google report after the NYSE close; Meta reports Wed; AMZN reports Thursday. The Street expects soft results, which could impede the usual Monday rally. The rally into earnings season tends to peak after most Fangs have reported results. So far, this rally has been muted. This implies that a relief rally in individual Fangs could occur if results are in-line, better, or only modestly disappointing. Rumors about MSFT and GOOGL’s earnings could impact late afternoon trading. Expected economic data: April Phil Fed Non-MFG PMI -12.8; Feb FHFA House Price Index -0.2% m/m; Feb S&P/CoreLogic 20-city house prices -0.4% m/m; March New Home Sales 630k; April Conference Board Consumer Confidence 104.0; Fed in blackout period for May 2-3 FOMC Meeting ESMs are -4.50 and USMs are +10/32 at 20:45 ET. Expected earnings: DHR 2.28, PEP 1.38, UPS 2.21, GM 1.70, HAL .67, MCD 2.24, GLW .39, PCAR 1.81, DOW .37, BIIB 3.29, RTX 1.13, ADM .177, MMM 1.57, PHM 1.80, GE .14, VZ 1.19, KMB 1.34, GOOGL 1.08, MSFT 2.24, TXN 1.78, V 1.99 S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4035; 100-day MA: 4001 150-day MA: 3932; 200-day MA: 3959 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,096; 100-day MA: 33,373; 150-day MA: 32,735; 200-day MA: 32,608 S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3908.70 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4084.70 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4148.91 triggers a buy signal @RNCResearch: Biden asks Congresswoman Jahana Hayes to stand: “Jonah, where are you? There you are, Jonah, right in front of me! Stand up, Jonah!” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1650567288930836482 @RNCResearch: National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan denies he was part of a “corrupt influence peddling involving the Biden family in Ukraine or any other country.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1650558025042649101 Joe Biden’s new strategy to avoid gaffes – Former White House officials tell Telegraph that US president is being handled by ‘consummate communications micro-managers’ Joe Biden’s 2024 campaign team is working out ways to protect him from tough questions as they aim to prevent his imminent re-election bid from being derailed by gaffes…. which means him not “saying very much at all”. Rather than a speech, his re-election campaign is expected to be announced in a pre-recorded video (He must have deteriorated more!) this week. The announcement comes amid increasing signs that media access to Mr Biden, already America’s oldest-ever president, is being limited. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/24/joe-biden-told-not-say-much-us-president-election-bid/ Hunter Biden may be living at the White House to evade legal papers from his baby mama Surrounded by his father’s Secret Service detail and protected by his own agents, it is difficult for a process server to get to him… https://nypost.com/2023/04/23/hunter-biden-may-be-living-at-the-white-house-to-evade-legal-papers-from-his-baby-mama/ Trump’s insane lies on DeSantis trash successful conservative policies The GOP one has already descended into a disgusting spiral of lies and insanity — because of the increasingly disordered and amateurish Donald Trump campaign… he, and the not-very-smart people around him, have decided that for him to win the primary he needs to not only destroy Florida’s extremely popular Gov. Ron DeSantis (who has not yet even announced a presidential run), but also to demolish all of DeSantis’ conservative policies and practices that have been so wildly successful in the sunshine state… On Friday, the Trump campaign released a bizarre statement trashing Florida… And Trump knows it’s a lie. By Friday night, Florida was no longer an apocalyptic hellscape and those sycophants who had spent the day agreeing with Trump that Florida is simply the worst were cut off at the legs. “I’m thrilled to be here with the proud, hard-working patriots of the great state of Florida. It’s a great state. Great place.” Trump said… Trump is not just slamming an exceptional Republican governor with his stupid attacks, he’s attacking the very best Republican policies and the model Republican state… Donald Trump supporters need to ask themselves: How much of that are they willing to sacrifice to defend their guy? And why? https://nypost.com/2023/04/23/trumps-insane-lies-on-desantis-trash-successful-conservative-policies/ ‘Destroy This Guy’: Why Trump’s Campaign Against DeSantis Is So Personal Donald Trump loathes Ron DeSantis for the Florida governor’s “disloyal” challenge to Trump’s iron grip on the Republican Party. The former president’s ire, however, is dwarfed by the intense desire harbored by some of Trump’s key aides and allies to see DeSantis politically ruined… Though Trump seems eager to take advantage of DeSantis’ allegedly razor-thin skin, the ex-president and 2024 GOP frontrunner is similarly famous for his own hypersensitivity and penchant for obsessing over jabs from others. He spent time as president trying to convince his own female senior staffer that his penis wasn’t bizarrely shaped, as was alleged at the time. During his 2016 presidential campaign, he couldn’t help himself from feuding with a Gold Star family, simply because they criticized him. He kept feuding with John McCain even after the senator died. While he was leader of the free world, Trump secretly pressed lawyers and political aides on whether his government and Justice Department could investigate Saturday Night Live and other late-night comedy shows for being too mean to him. He directed his own White House staff to lean on Disney to censor late-night host Jimmy Kimmel, an anti-Trump comedian. And the ex-president was, of course, so keen on not letting go of the anti-democratic fiction that the 2020 election had been stolen from him that it caused a deadly riot. Trump’s 2024 orbit is loaded with DeSantis alums. Some say DeSantis made his staff’s lives miserable. They want to return the favor… (Why would DJT run to media that hates him to slam DeSantis?) https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/donald-trump-campaign-ron-desantis-personal-attacks-explained-1234722045/ ‘I’m not a candidate, so we’ll see if and when that changes’: Ron DeSantis slaps back when asked his thoughts on trailing Trump in the polls as he begins world tour with Casey in Japan https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12007225/DeSantis-responds-trailing-Trump-Im-not-candidate-changes.html Trump let trans beauty queen compete in Miss Universe, in a potential 2024 GOP primary liability Trump overturned rules at his own Miss Universe organization to allow transgender contestant in 2012 https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-let-trans-beauty-queen-compete-in-miss-universe-potential-2024-gop-primary-liability Matt Taibbi rips media silence after Dem threat: ‘Can you imagine’ if GOP threatened to jail CNN’s Jim Acosta? https://www.foxnews.com/media/matt-taibbi-rips-media-silence-after-dem-threat-imagine-gop-threatened-jail-cnns-jim-acosta Chicago teens (14 & 17) charged with misdemeanor for stealing car, causing crash that killed baby, hurt 3 others (No wonder Chicago is devolving into a nightmarish dystopia!) https://www.foxnews.com/us/chicago-teens-charged-misdemeanor-stealing-car-causing-crash-killed-bady-hurt-others Man who fumbled gun, accidentally shooting 2 at a Christmas party, gets probation https://cwbchicago.com/2023/04/probation-for-accidentally-firing-gun-christmas-party-shooting-chicago.html 6 people face murder charges for the Sweet 16 party massacre that left 4 dead and 32 injured Six people – including four teenagers – have been arrested and now face murder charges in connection with the deadly rampage at a weekend Sweet 16 birthday party in Dadeville, Alabama, authorities say. https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/19/us/dadeville-alabama-birthday-party-shooting-wednesday/index.html Willie George Brown Jr., 19, was arrested Thursday and charged with four counts of reckless murder, the Alabama Law Enforcement Agency said. Earlier Thursday, Johnny Letron Brown, 20, of Tuskegee, was arrested and also charged with four counts of reckless murder, the agency said. Woke professors forced into humiliating retraction on ‘false’ research accusing employer of pervasive racism – ‘The retraction has been agreed following concerns… of specific data [which] was either inaccurate, misleading, or false,’ the note on the University of Minnesota academics’ paper said https://www.foxnews.com/media/woke-university-minnesota-professors-forced-retract-research-calling-employer-structurally-racist | |
GREG HUNTER
end
See you ON WEDNESDAY
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