by harveyorgan · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment·Edit
GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $22.40 TO $1936.60
SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $0.89 AT $23.19
Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1936,40
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 23.16
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Bitcoin morning price:, $26,797 UP 441 Dollars
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $27.892 UP 1536 dollars
Platinum price closing $965.90 DOWN $21.00
Palladium price; $1381.25 DOWN $43.60
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2,561.68 DOWN 18.32 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)
BRITISH GOLD: 1516.83 DOWN 10.20 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)
EURO GOLD: 1773.82 DOWN 15.1 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//
DONATE
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,958.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/16/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 06/21/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
132 C SG AMERICAS 3
323 C HSBC 160
323 H HSBC 35
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 51
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 21
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 98
661 H JP MORGAN 4
690 C ABN AMRO 8
709 C BARCLAYS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 2
880 H CITIGROUP 33
905 C ADM 5
TOTAL: 211 211
MONTH TO DATE: 19,17
JPMorgan stopped 102/211 contracts
FOR JUNE:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2023. CONTRACT: 211 NOTICES FOR 210,000 OZ or 0.6562 TONNES
total notices so far: 19,177 contracts for 1,917,700 oz (59.648 tonnes)
FOR JUNE:
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR NIL OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 423 for 2,115,000 oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:////
INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 89 CENTS AT THE SLV//
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 463.183 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1509 CONTRACTS TO 151,591 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.23 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A STRONG SIZED 790 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH . CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: 790 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE THIS YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS ///MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.23). BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING A FEW SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1159 CONTRACTS. WE HAD ANOTHER IDENTICAL 587 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 2.935 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 13.370 MILLION OZ.). WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG WITH MANIPULATION NOW MID MONTH AND BEYOND, DUE TO (TAS) MANIPULATION.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 350 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.935 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 2.935 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK(ISSUED TODAY: TOTAL ISSUED SO FAR: 13.370 MILLION OZ)// TOTAL STANDING FOR THE MONTH 4.270 MILLION OZ + 13.370 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 17,640 MILLION OZ// ) // HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (790 CONTRACTS)//
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –477 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 12 days, total 14,521 contracts: OR 72.695 MILLION OZ (1210 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 72.695 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 72.695 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1509 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.23 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 350 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE OF 3.935 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP+ 2.935 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY + 10.435 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK(PRIOR)//NEW TOTAL STANDING: 17.640 MILLION OZ////// .. WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 1159 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG 790//MINOR FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TODAY (790) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE.
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR NIL OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 125 CONTRACTS TO 432,223 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED – 186 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 125 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $0.70 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE. AT 70.79 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.1648 TONNE QUEUE JUMP: NEW TOTAL 64.230 TONNES STANDING SO FAR // + /A SMALL ISSUANCE OF 482 T.A.S. CONTRACTS ////YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $2.80 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1566 OI CONTRACTS (4.8709 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1752 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 432,037
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1566 CONTRACTS WITH 125 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX//TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL 482 CONTRACTS) AND 1441 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1752 CONTRACTS OR 5449 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1441 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (311) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1566 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE AT 70.79 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5300 OZ QUEUE JUMP //// NEW STANDING FALLS TO 64.230 TONNES// /3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 482 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
JUNE
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 27,816 CONTRACTS OR 2,781,600 OZ OR 86,519 TONNES IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2318 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 86,519 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 86.519/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.42% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 86.519 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1509 CONTRACTS OI TO 151,591 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022
EFP ISSUANCE 350 CONTRACTS (RECORD ISSUANCE)
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 350 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 350 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1509 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 350 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1159 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 5,795 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.23 GAIN IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.44 PTS OR 0.47% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 305.81 PTS OR 1.54% /The Nikkei closed UP 18.49 OR 0.06% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.79 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1760 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.1845 /Oil UP TO 72.09 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 76.75 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A TINY SIZED 125 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 432,037 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.70 ON FRIDAY,
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1441 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 1441 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1441 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1566 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1441 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A TINY SIZED GAIN OF 125 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.70//FRIDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS A SMALL 482 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS INITIATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GOLD/SILVER MARKET AS RAIDS WILL SURELY BE UPON US.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JUNE (64.230) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.230 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $0.70) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR FAIR GAIN OF 1566 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD MINOR TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION . THE TAS ISSUED FRIDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 4.8709 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE. (70.709 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5300 OZ QUEUE JUMP..NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 64.230 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $0.70
WE HAD – REMOVED 186 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1566 CONTRACTS OR 156600 OZ OR 4.809 TONNES.
Estimated gold volume today:// 244,824 fair
final gold volumes/yesterday 164,395 poor
//JUNE 20/ FOR THE JUNE 2023 CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 96.453 OZ int.Delaware 3 kilobars . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 16,012.057 oz Brinks |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 16,001.885 oz Brinks |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 211 notice(s) 21100 OZ 0.6562 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1453 contracts 145,300 oz 4.519 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 19,177 notices 1,917,700 OZ 59.648 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 1
i)Into Brinks 16,012.057 oz
total dealer deposits: 16,012.057 oz
we had one customer deposit:
i) Into Brinks: 16,001.885 oz
total deposits: 16,001.885 oz
Withdrawals: 1
i) out of Int. Delaware: 96.453 oz (3 kilobars)
total 96.453 oz
Adjustments;1 dealer to customer
i) Out of Brinks 13,210.510 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE.
For the front month of JUNE we have an oi of 1664 contracts having LOST 10 contracts. We had 63 contracts served on Friday so we gained 53 contracts or an additional 5300 oz will stand for gold at the comex.
The next front month after June is the non active delivery month of July. Here, July lost 72 contracts to stand at 2469 contracts.
AUGUST LOST 150 contracts up to 364,879 contracts
We had 211 contracts filed for today representing 21,100 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 211 contract(s) of which 4 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 98 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (19,177 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE (1664 CONTRACT) minus the number of notices served upon today 211 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,065,000 OZ OR 64.230 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of June.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month: No of notices filed so far (19,177) x 100 oz + (1664) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (211) x 100 oz) which equals 2,065,000 oz standing OR 64.230 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 64.230 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 o
total pledged gold: 2,055,246.664 OZ 63.92 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,584,958.309 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,704,821,493 (364.06 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,880,136.816 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,649,285 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 300.13 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
JUNE 20//2023// THE JUNE 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 858,998.378 oz CNT Int. Delaware Manfra . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 103,138.454 oz Delaware |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 0 CONTRACT(S) (NIL OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 431 contracts (2,155,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 423 Contracts (2,115,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposits
total dealer deposit: nil oz
total dealer deposits: 0
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into Delaware 103,138.454 oz
total customer deposits: 103,138.454 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 142,366 million oz/271.379 million =52.45% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals 3
i) Out of CNT: 22,985.950 oz
ii) Out of Int. Delaware 228,390.928 oz
iii) out of Manfra: 607,621.500 oz
total withdrawals: 858,998.378 oz
adjustments: 1
dealer to customer: manfra
20,680.600 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 27.096 MILLION OZ (declining rapidly).TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 271.379 million oz
DEALER SILVER DROPPING FAST. (moves into the 27 million oz column)
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JUNE /2023 OI: 431 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 0 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE LOST 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE
JULY HAD A 4823 CONTRACT LOSS TO 63,082 CONTRACTS
AUGUST GAINED 8 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 117
SEPT HAS A GAIN OF 3296 CONTRACTS UP TO 76,500
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for NIL oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 127,197 huge /
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday:75,183 good
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 423 x 5,000 oz = 2,115,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(431) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JUNE/2023 contract month: 423 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JUNE (431) – number of notices served upon today (0 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month equates to 4.270 million oz + 2.935 EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY + 10.435MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK (PRIOR)//NEW TOTAL: 17.640 MILLION OZ STANDING
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JUNE 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $0.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44 TONNES
JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44
JUNE 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.65 TONNES
JUNE 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.65 TONNES
JUNE 8/WITH GOLD UP $20.45 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.65 TONNES
JUNE 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $22.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.11 TONNES
JUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.90 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.56 TONNES
JUNE 5/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.11 TONNES
JUNE 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.11 TONNES
JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $14.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.56 TONNES
MAY 31/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.56 TONNES
MAY 30/WITH GOLD UP $14.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 26/WITH GOLD UP $.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.50 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 23/WITH GOLD $2.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.74 TONNES
MAY 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.83 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD DESPITE THE L0SS IN PRICE//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.74 TONNES
MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.96 TONNES
MAY 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.96 TONNES
MAY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.94 TONNES
MAY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN 28.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.57 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934,07
MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.64 TONNES
MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.84 TONNES
MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.95 TONNES
MAY 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.70 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.95 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 934.03 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JUNE 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 89 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ
JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.377 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.642 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 14/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 735,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.019 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.515 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.754 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 9/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF SILVER TO THE TUNE OF 550,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ
JUNE 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.819 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.01 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.819 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.809 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 5/WITH SILVER DOWN $.13 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 266,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.809 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 918,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.015 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.933 MILLION OZ
MAY 31/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 367,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.933 MILLION OZ//
MAY 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.300 MILLION OZ//
MAY 26/WITH SILVER UP $0.44 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.306 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.300 MILLION OZ//
MAY 25.WITH SILVER DOWN $0.32 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.606 MILLION OZ//
MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $.35 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.330 MILLION OZ//
MAY 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.801 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.330 MILLION OZ//
MAY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ//
MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ
MAY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ/
MAY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.448 MILLION OZ//
MAY 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .643 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.448 MILLION OZ.
MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.091 MILLION OZ/
MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN $.26 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 3,123 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.091 MILLION OZ./
MAY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.18 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.968 MILLION OZ
MAY 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.286 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.968 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 463.183 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
END
2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO
Solid Gold In a Broken World
Matthew Piepenburg
June 18, 2023
Below, we look at gold in a broke(n) world of hubris, debt, Realpolitik and a rising east.
For well over a year, we’ve openly declared that the Fed is cornered.
That is, Powell knows he needs higher rates to allegedly “fight” inflation but also knows that raising rates into an historical debt bubble means one “credit event” (or “crunch”) after the next, from tanking USTs in 2020 to tanking banks in 2023.
It seems only now that the WSJ (Mr. Timiraos), along with a former Indian central banker (Mr. Rajan) is confessing the same.
Human, All Too Human
But Powell is more than just a cornered banker, he’s an insecure and “human, all too human” political man with admittedly more concerns about his legacy than a tanking market or painful recession.
As he himself declared: “I will not become ‘just another Arthur Burns,’” which translates to: “I’m not going to be a dove as the economy and markets race toward a financial horror-film that the Fed itself directed since Greenspan killed capitalism.”
Thus, and with almost zero regard for common sense, basic math and history, this cornered banker is trying instead to be Paul Volcker, but has forgotten that Volcker raised rates to fight inflation when public debt was at $800B not $32T.
Not Volcker, All Too Volcker
Furthermore, Volcker led the Fed at a time when USTs were loved rather than unloved.
Since 2014 in general, and 2022 in particular, the level of foreigners dumping Uncle Sam’s IOUs is breath-taking and makes it all too clear to any holding even a rudimentary understanding of the bond market that the US will be financing its own deficits at levels (and trillions) which end empires.
For years, the US has pretended to be what it once was: Respected and credible. But its balance sheet, as argued elsewhere, is no different than just any other banana republic.
Like the very nations Uncle Sam once mocked (think Argentina), the US has been issuing more IOUs despite a world that is buying less of the same.
Thus, and like Argentina circa 2000, the US has already begun regulating (forcing?) US banks and money market funds to buy its over-issued debt, with the end result of simply crushing some of those banks and money markets in a toxic wave of QT.
With friends like the Fed, who needs enemies?
And like the banana republics, the US is now in a corner wherein inflation is too sticky to cut rates yet bank (and other credit participant) pains are too high to raise rates.
Clear, All Too Clear Bar Tab
Since 2014, it has become harder to export Uncle Sam’s inflation (or launder its debt burdens) by expecting other nations to simply absorb his increasingly unwanted USTs and openly embarrassing bar tab.
As the following graph provided by Luke Gromen makes “clear, all too clear,” the gap between Uncle Sam’s embarrassing deficit (blue line) and the meek level of foreign buyers of his debt (red line) reveals two historical points:
- US deficits are appalling; and
- Who or what is going to fill that “gap”?
Kill the Currency or Save the (Broken) “System”?
If the history of broke empires, nations and regimes is any guide, and if the psychology of short-sighted politicians seeking re-election (i.e., bribing the electorate with mouse-clicked dollars) over sound-money is equally so, then we can be almost certain that the Fed and Uncle Sam’s end-game boils down to choosing between saving the system or killing the currency.
For us, the choice ahead is fairly obvious, which also means that gold, which hovers like a vulture over debased currencies, will be licking its chops in the years ahead.
China Licking Its Chops and Expanding Its Swaps
But gold is not the only vulture about to get fatter in an increasingly de-dollarized backdrop.
China, love it or hate it, has been sharpening its knives and forks for years in a patient and long-sited play to win an economic and currency war with Uncle Sam.
After all, emperors for life, like Xi, can afford to be more far-sighted than US politicians who prostitute sound money responsibilities for easy money re-election.
This may be why tiny-thinkers like Trudeau, or folks who probably never had a girlfriend in college, like Klaus Schwab, have such a crush on Xi and the kind of power he can wield without having to worry about silly little things like democratic elections…
It’s Good to be King (But not a USD)
Getting back to those emerging market “banana republics” which the US so often mocked, it’s worth noting that Argentina has just doubled its currency swap access to $10B, but here’s the kicker: The swap is in CNY not USD…
Meanwhile, Pakistan just signed a deal with Russia to buy crude oil, but guess what, Pakistan is paying that bill in CNY and not USDs…
See a trend?
It’s the very trend we warned of the moment Uncle Sam weaponized the world reserve currency in those insanely myopic (i.e., stupid) sanctions against Russia in early 2022.
Settlement deals like these (FX and energy) almost certainly involve swap lines with Chinese fingerprints and with countries (like Argentina and Pakistan) who hold less and less US FX reserves, which is no surprise given that few countries wish to hold “reserve assets” that can be turned off at a political whim.
In short, if the world is slowly but steadily looking outside the USD, it’s because the US has slowly but steadily shot itself (and its Dollar) in the foot since March of 2022.
In fact, throughout Q1, global central banks have been engaging in record-breaking levels of CNY currency stacking (109B yuan by end of March) via FX swap lines.
To date, the Chinese central bank (PBOC) hasn’t listed the names of these nations and banks, but the SLOW trend away from an increasingly distrusted USD and rising China is pretty hard to ignore as more nations are using the yuan for energy and real asset deals while holding the USD/UST merely to pay down old debts.
Why?
Because the rest of the world is seeing what American media outlets and store-bought DC politicos are refusing to confess, namely: China was winning the global trade war even before DC weaponized the USD:
See the trend?
Playing the Long Game in the World of the Short-Sighted
But as indicated in many recent articles and interviews, the CNY is not about to become the world reserve currency.
It’s bond market and rule of law are decades beyond such credibility or use.
But this doesn’t mean that China or its CNY has to worry, for the yuan’s increasing role as trade a settlement currency rather than reserve currency suits China just fine for now.
In Gold They Trust
Furthermore, China, like Russia, is fully aware of the Realpolitik (i.e., distrust) of their laws and bond markets.
They know, as George Washington knew, that “nations have neither permanent friends nor enemies, just permanent interests.”
In other words, for China and Russia to win the long game (rather than putting green), they need to win the trust of other nations by appealing to their interests rather than platitudes.
And nothing holds the interests of skeptical yet USD-tired nations like gold, as gold, love it or hate it, is far more trustworthy than men, be they from DC, Buenos Aires, Moscow, Beijing or Paris.
How the USD Lost Trust
For a brief window after 1944, when the USD was backed by gold, other nations could trust the USD as a life raft in times of crisis.
Nixon, of course, sank that raft in 1971 and took away the gold standard to ensure his re-election at the long-term expense of his country.
How’s that for a “profile in courage”?
Now, some 50+ years later, the slow end of the USD as a life-raft, trusted asset or even trade currency is reaping the costs of its political, human and monetary sins.
Weaponizing that dollar only added to this gradual yet eventual fall.
China is now creating more liquidity with each passing day, as it has swap lines with just about everyone.
Xi, like Putin, are also stacking gold at un-disclosed levels, but even the official numbers are telling.
And what are they telling us? Or what, for example, is Sergei Glasyex concocting behind the scenes?
Well, I’m guessing it has a lot to do with building trust the old-fashioned way—namely: With gold in the mix of its trade settlement platforms and swaps.
In the coming years, this “guess” is going to emerge as a reality, and like a chess-player or polo player, I, like many other investors, nations and central banks, am playing gold three moves ahead as gold becomes a net settlement asset.
Peak Cheap Gold
Notwithstanding the otherwise undeniable and changing patterns in the aforementioned global FX and geopolitical stage, one merely has to consider the seemingly unlimited supply of otherwise unwanted USTs with their intrinsically limited duration and then compare such toxicity with a simple bar of gold, which, unlike Uncle Sam’s IOUs, has an infinite duration and limited supply.
In short: Supply and demand still matter.
Toward this end, it’s worth noting that gold discoveries are shrinking in supply as demand for the same is, and will continue, to rise.
In the 1990’s, for example, there were over 180 major gold discoveries (i.e., 1m oz. and higher); in the 2000’s there were 120 such discoveries, 40 in the 2010’s and NONE since 2019.
Think about that for a second or two.
Also, think about the simple fact that Uncle Sam, the holder of the world reserve currency, has been hiking rates into the greatest debt bubble in once proud national history, thereby increasing US solvency risk (and thus pointing toward dollar debasement down the road) with neon-flashing clarity.
Gold, quite simply, is separating from real rates and acting more and more on its own, as the fear trade gets easier and easier to see, and gold gets easier and easier to, well…TRUST.
Stated even more simply, demand for this “pet rock” is increasing as its supply is falling.
If you took high school econ, then you know what that does to the price of gold and the fall of the USD’s purchasing power.
Again: See the trend?
end
JPMorgan/Jeffrey Epstein Cases Are a Cross Between the Bank’s Chinese Princeling Scandal and Madoff Fraud, Using Sex with Minors as a Bribe
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: June 20, 2023 ~
The tenure of Jamie Dimon as Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, the largest federally-insured bank in the United States and the largest trading casino on Wall Street, has copiously revealed the following: the bank is more than willing to look the other way at crime if it means an increase in assets, profits or business referrals.
Each of those three ingredients were present in the bank’s decades long involvement with Bernie Madoff, with its Chinese Princeling scandal and in the unfolding details of its intimate relationship with child sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein.
This reality may be difficult for the New York business press to acknowledge – since it has mostly covered Jamie Dimon as the grand statesman of Wall Street – but this is the hard reality nonetheless.
Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal’s Khadeeja Safdar and David Benoit revealed the contents of a 22-page internal report that JPMorgan Chase had prepared in 2019 as a timeline of its relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. The bank was apparently attempting to assess its liability after Epstein was arrested on July 6, 2019 by the Justice Department and charged with sex trafficking. (Epstein was found dead in his jail cell on August 10, 2019. The Medical Examiner ruled his death a suicide.)
The 22-page internal report had been filed under seal with the federal district court in Manhattan that is hearing two lawsuits against the bank for aiding and abetting Epstein’s sex trafficking. Apparently, someone leaked the full contents of the report to the reporters. One paragraph of the Wall Street Journal article is particularly enlightening. It reads as follows:
“The 2019 JPMorgan report said that Epstein had appeared to have forged close relationships with senior executives and government officials, including Dubai’s Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem and British politician Peter Mandelson. Epstein tried to connect these associates to Staley and the bank for business deals and international expansions.”
The reference to “Staley” is to Jes Staley, a former executive of the bank who worked a few hundred feet from Dimon’s office, according to a deposition given by Dimon. Disturbing internal emails show that Staley was closely aligned with Epstein, even visiting him while he was serving his sentence for sex with a minor. Now consider the above paragraph in combination with what Virginia Giuffre has alleged in her prior lawsuits against Epstein: that, beginning when she was just 17 years old, Epstein and his girlfriend/procurer, Ghislaine Maxwell, arranged sexual encounters for Giuffre with royalty and powerful politicians. Prince Andrew settled monetary damages with Giuffre last year.
To put it simply, Epstein was an asset gatherer, and profit gatherer, and new business gatherer for JPMorgan Chase. And he dangled sex with underage women as an inducement to get meetings and make connections. And that is why, despite Epstein’s conviction in 2008 for procuring sex with a minor, despite his forced registration as a life-long sex offender, and despite his settling of dozens of cases of sexual assault of minors, JPMorgan Chase retained him as a client from 1998 to 2013.
There is a serious and deeply disturbing pattern of looking the other way at crime in order to gain a business advantage at JPMorgan Chase under Jamie Dimon’s “stewardship.”
In November 2016, units of JPMorgan Chase agreed to pay more than $264 million to the U.S. Department of Justice, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Reserve in what was widely known as its Chinese “Princeling” scandal.
In announcing the settlement in the Princeling scandal in 2016, officials at the Justice Department said this:
“The so-called Sons and Daughters Program was nothing more than bribery by another name…Awarding prestigious employment opportunities to unqualified individuals in order to influence government officials is corruption, plain and simple. This case demonstrates the Criminal Division’s commitment to uncovering corruption no matter the form of the scheme…
“In this case, JPMorgan employees designed a program to hire otherwise unqualified candidates for prestigious investment banking jobs solely because these candidates were referred to the bank by officials in positions to award business to the bank. In certain instances, referred candidates were hired with the understanding that the hiring was linked to the award of specific business. This is no longer business as usual; it is corruption.”
In January 2014, JPMorgan Chase paid $2.6 billion in fines and restitution, signed a deferred prosecution agreement with the Justice Department, and walked away from their 22-year involvement with Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme.
After digesting the related documents released by the Justice Department in the Madoff matter, the Los Angeles Times asked the following: “Bernie Madoff: Was he part of the JPMorgan ring, or was JPMorgan part of his ring? “
The same thing could now be asked in the Epstein matter: Was Epstein part of the JPMorgan ring or was JPMorgan part of Epstein’s ring?
The Justice Department prosecutors who settled the case against JPMorgan Chase used much of the investigative material from Irving Picard, the Trustee of the Madoff victims’ fund, to bring their charges against JPMorgan Chase. According to Picard, JPMorgan Chase used unaudited financial statements from Madoff and skipped the required steps of bank due diligence to make $145 million in loans to Madoff’s business.
Lawyers for Picard write that from November 2005 through January 18, 2006, JPMorgan Chase loaned $145 million to Madoff’s business at a time when the bank was on “notice of fraudulent activity” in Madoff’s business account and when, in fact, Madoff’s business was insolvent. The reason for the JPMorgan Chase loans was because Madoff’s business account was “reaching dangerously low levels of liquidity, and the Ponzi scheme was at risk of collapsing.” JPMorgan, in fact, “provided liquidity to continue the Ponzi scheme,” according to Picard.
But was Madoff also generating new business deals or profits for JPMorgan Chase? The accounts of Norman F. Levy come immediately to mind.
JPMorgan Chase and its predecessor banks extended tens of millions of dollars in loans to Norman F. Levy and his family so they could invest with the insolvent Madoff. (Levy died in 2005 at age 93 without being charged with any crimes.)
According to Picard, Levy had $188 million in outstanding loans in 1996, which he used to funnel money into Madoff investments. Picard’s lawyers told the court that JPMorgan Chase referred to these investments as ‘special deals,’ and adding:
“Indeed, these deals were special for all involved: (a) Levy enjoyed Madoff’s inflated return rates of up to 40% on the money he invested with Madoff; (b) Madoff enjoyed the benefits of large amounts of cash to perpetuate his fraud without being subject to JPMC’s due diligence processes; and (c) JPMC [JPMorgan Chase] earned fees on the loan amounts and watched the ‘special deals’ from afar, escaping responsibility for any due diligence on Madoff’s operation.”
A critical piece of evidence against JPMorgan was that despite funneling loans to both Madoff and Levy, the bank “advised the rest of its Private Bank customers not to invest with Madoff,” according to Picard.
On paper, according to Picard, Levy was worth $1.5 billion in 1998. He was such an important customer to JPMorgan and its predecessor firms that he was given his own office at the bank.
Levy was a commercial real estate broker and, according to a 2009 Vanity Fair article, at one point Levy “had an ownership stake in 70 properties, including the Seagram Building and 21 shopping centers across America…”
According to Picard, once Levy was a Madoff client, the relationship included classic, unchecked evidence of money laundering for years and years that should have resulted in legally-mandated Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) filed with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). But even after a different bank detected the suspicious activity in the late 1990s and reported the transactions to FinCEN, JPMorgan Chase and its predecessor banks failed to file their own mandated SARs. JPMorgan Chase not only allowed the activity to continue but allowed it to increase dramatically in dollar terms.
Contrast the above with information that James Dalessio, an employee of JPMorgan Chase, emailed to colleagues in October 2007 regarding Epstein’s cash withdrawals from the bank. Dalessio informed a control group at JPMorgan’s Private Bank that Epstein had withdrawn the following cash amounts in just a two-year span: 10 withdrawals of $40,000 year-to-date in 2007; cash withdrawals totaling $914,796 in 2006 consisting of 18 withdrawals of $40,000 in cash; two withdrawals of $60,000 in cash; one withdrawal of $30,000 in cash; and one withdrawal of $25,000 in cash. (Dalessio’s email was submitted to the Court, unsealed, in the pending U.S. Virgin Islands v JPMorgan Chase Bank case.)
Dalessio notes in his email that CTRs (Currency Transaction Reports) were filed for these cash withdrawals but there is no indication that Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) were filed with FinCEN.
The U.S. Virgin Islands is alleging the following in its lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase:
“Plaintiff, the Government of the United States Virgin Islands (‘Government’), claims and will prove that Defendant JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (‘JPMorgan’) violated the Trafficking Victims Protection Act, 18 U.S.C. §§ 1581- 1597 (‘TVPA’), by knowingly participating in and benefitting from Jeffrey Epstein’s sex-trafficking and by obstructing investigation through its concealment of Epstein’s suspicious transactions from law enforcement. Discovery confirms that JPMorgan knowingly, recklessly, and unlawfully provided and pulled the levers through which Epstein’s recruiters and victims were paid and was indispensable to the operation and concealment of Epstein’s trafficking. JPMorgan had real-time information on Epstein’s payments that the Government did not and had specific legal duties to report this information to law enforcement authorities, which it intentionally decided not to do.”
JPMorgan Chase’s unprecedented history of crimes has another distinction. It is the only U.S. domiciled bank that we know of that was compared to the Gambino crime family in a book authored by two trial attorneys.
In 2016, trial lawyers Helen Davis Chaitman and Lance Gotthoffer released the book JPMadoff: The Unholy Alliance Between America’s Biggest Bank and America’s Biggest Crook. Chaitman and Gotthoffer provide this analysis: (JPMC stands for JPMorgan Chase.)
“In Chapter 4, we compared JPMC to the Gambino crime family to demonstrate the many areas in which these two organizations had the same goals and strategies. In fact, the most significant difference between JPMC and the Gambino Crime Family is the way the government treats them. While Congress made it a national priority to eradicate organized crime, there is an appalling lack of appetite in Washington to decriminalize Wall Street. Congress and the executive branch of the government seem determined to protect Wall Street criminals, which simply assures their proliferation.”
Chaitman and Gotthoffer then suggested using the RICO statute to prosecute the bank, writing:
“If Jamie Dimon is running a criminal institution, he should be prosecuted for it. And law enforcement has the perfect tool for such a prosecution: the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations ACT (RICO).
“Congress enacted RICO in 1970 in order to give law enforcement the statutory tools it needed to prosecute the people who committed crimes upon orders from mob leaders and the mob leaders themselves. RICO targets organizations called ‘racketeering enterprises’ that engage in a ‘pattern’ of criminal activity, as well as the individuals who derive profits from such enterprises. For example, under RICO, a mob leader who passed down an order for an underling to commit a serious crime could be held liable for being part of a racketeering enterprise. He would be subject to imprisonment for up to twenty years per racketeering count and to disgorgement of the profits he realized from the enterprise and any interest he acquired in any business gained through a pattern of ‘racketeering activity.’ “
To date, the U.S. Department of Justice has charged JPMorgan Chase with five felony counts between 2014 and 2020. In each case, the bank admitted to the charges and in each case the Justice Department gave it a deferred prosecution agreement, meaning it was put on probation and had to promise not to engage in more crimes. Nonetheless, the crimes continued. In the Princeling scandal, the bank was given a non-prosecution agreement.
Astonishingly, the Board of Directors of JPMorgan Chase did not see this unprecedented pattern of crime on Jamie Dimon’s watch as sufficient grounds to fire him. Instead, the Board made Dimon a billionaire with stock awards and bonuses. (See our report: If You’re Baffled as to Why JPMorgan Chase’s Board Hasn’t Sacked Jamie Dimon as the Bank Racked Up 5 Felony Counts – Here’s Your Answer.)
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
A bank China built to challenge the dollar now needs it
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2023-06-16 11:10Section: Daily Dispatches
By Alexander Saeedy and Lingling Wei
The Wall Street Journal
Friday, June 16, 2023
A development bank China launched with its fellow Brics countries was supposed to reshape international finance. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine now risks turning it into a zombie bank.
Eight years after Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his counterparts from Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa established the New Development Bank, with headquarters in a swanky Shanghai skyscraper, it has all but stopped making new loans and is having trouble raising dollar funds to repay its debts, according to an examination of its finances and interviews with bankers and others familiar with the matter.
The New Development Bank is the lesser-known of two China-based multilateral lenders. Its larger cousin, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, this week landed in the middle of a public-relations crisis after a disgruntled executive accused it of being controlled by members of China’s Communist Party.
Trouble at both banks, as well as at China’s giant Belt and Road infrastructure push, which has seen China spend $1 trillion to expand its influence across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, spotlights growing difficulties for Beijing’s strategy to rearrange an international order it considers biased in favor of the West.
Both the AIIB and the New Development Bank were set up in large part to reduce developing countries’ dependence on dollar-based funding—alternatives to the International Monetary Fund that would help finance development in some of the world’s fastest-growing economies. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
The dreadful story of J’Burg:
(Bloomberg News)
Africa’s richest city is crumbling under chaos and corruption
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2023-06-17 10:34Section: Daily Dispatches
By S’thembile Cele
Bloomberg News
Friday, June 16, 2023
Solomon Owa’s fingers work quickly as he speaks over the hum of his sewing machine. That’s because the hum of his sewing machine might stop at any moment. “In a few minutes, the power will go,” he said.
The 51-year-old runs a tailoring business from his garage in Johannesburg. Outages leave him idle for up to 10 hours a day. Surrounded by piles of colorful material, he needs to work while he can.
It’s a rush that South Africans have begrudgingly become accustomed to as they’re forced to use more and more ingenuity to navigate daily life: Charge devices, take a shower before the hot water goes off, and leave the house before the traffic lights go out. Schools, hospitals, restaurants and businesses rely on backup generators to keep running. Homeless people guide vehicles through potholed streets for cash.
The continent’s richest city was built on gold, but it’s now defined by chaos, crime and corruption more than ever. It encapsulates the wider collapse of basic services across South Africa. From a broken railway network disrupting trade to archaic sanitation that triggered a recent cholera outbreak near the capital, Pretoria, parts of the country increasingly look like a failing state. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
A must view:
Gold revaluation is trump card in East-West power struggle, Maguire says
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2023-06-17 22:24Section: Daily Dispatches
10:24p ET Saturday, June 17, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
London metals trader Andrew Maguire, speaking on this week’s “Live from the Vault” program with Shane Morand from Kinesis Money, says gold revaluation is the trump card in the power struggle between East and West and will be played soon by either Russia and China or by the United States to pre-empt its adversaries.
This, Maguire says, brings urgency to the unwinding of the U.S.-underwritten short position in gold futures.
The program is 38 minutes long and can be seen at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
Butler notes huge rise in banks’ metals derivatives positions, but whose are they really?
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-06-19 17:23Section: Daily Dispatches
5:29p ET Monday, June 19, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):
Market analyst Ted Butler today reports “stunning” increases in the monetary metals derivatives positions of JPMorganChase Bank and Bank of America and expresses concern that the latter bank could get in trouble with its derivatives insofar it is “inexperienced” in this market.
But what if the huge monetary metals derivatives positions attributed to these banks are not really the banks’ own positions at all? What if they are really U.S. government positions, with the banks acting as brokers?
After all, a few years ago JPMorgan executives insisted that the bank had no proprietary position in silver and traded the metal only for clients. Of course nobody asked the bank whether those clients included the government. But if the JPMorgan and Bank of America derivative positions in the monetary metals are as disproportionate as Butler finds — that they “tower” over gold and silver trading on the New York Commodities Exchange — more than ordinary trading is indeed going on.
Really, how can anyone not suspect U.S. government involvement with those outsized derivatives positions when the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission repeatedly has refused to answer, even for a member of Congress, whether it has jurisdiction over manipulative trading undertaken by or at the behest of the U.S. government?:
https://www.gata.org/node/19917
The CFTC’s refusal to answer that question — and the failure of financial journalists and market analysts to ask it — gave the game away long ago.
Butler’s analysis is headlined “Another Stunning OCC Report” and it’s posted at GoldSeek’s companion site, SilverSeek, here:
https://silverseek.com/article/another-stunning-occ-report-1
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES/
A black swan event to trigger the gold price revaluation
https://kinesis.money/live-from-the-vault/black-swan-gold-price-revaluation/
END
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:
end
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
END
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS/TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1760
OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.1845
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.44 PTS OR 0.47%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 305.81 PTS OR 1.54%
2. Nikkei closed UP 18.49 PTS OR 0.06%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 102.08 EURO RISES TO 1.0927 UP 4 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.372 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 141.43/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.455***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.049*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.372…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.72
3j Gold at $1950.55 silver at: 23.81 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 33 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 84.47//
3m oil into the 72 dollar handle for WTI and 76 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 141.43// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, FALLS TO .385% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8975 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9806 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.768 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.855 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.700 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 23.56…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 2 BASIS PTS AT 4.394 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS (RATES RISING RAPIDLY)
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
MONDAY
Global Markets Drop, US Futures Flat In Muted Holiday Trading
MONDAY, JUN 19, 2023 – 08:13 AM
Global stocks fell on Monday after the recent powerful rally lost steam at the end of last week, while US equity futures were flat in thin trading celebrating the (“exploitative”) Juneteenth holiday following Wall Street’s slight decline on Friday amid concern about the economic outlook. S&P 500 futures traded between modest gains and losses and at last check were down 0.1% as of 8:00am ET while Nasdaq 100 futures were flat. Global investors were also disappointed by the ongoing lack of more stimulus from China after its State Council stopped short of releasing any specific proposals for new support measures for the economy.
The S&P 500 has rallied for the past five weeks, the longest such streak since November 2021, as investors anticipate the end of the Fed’s tightening cycle and that earnings will hold up better than expected. Several Fed officials, including Chair Powell, are slated to speak this holiday-shortened week. Investors will parse these statements for clues on the path of monetary policy and the direction of growth.
Despite the pressure of an $4.2 trillion options expiry at the end of last week, the S&P 500 index capped a fifth straight week of gains and is now higher than it was the day the Federal Reserve kicked off its campaign.
“We expect the US to head into a short, two-quarter, recession later this year,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy, accounting and sustainability at Liberum Capital. That said, the “US recession is likely to be shallower and shorter than those in Europe and as a result, companies with a larger US revenue exposure will likely outperform companies with more exposure to Europe or the slowing Chinese consumer.”
Looking ahead, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give his semi-annual report to Congress on Wednesday, while St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and his counterparts in New York and Chicago are among this week’s speakers.
As discussed previously, the S&P 500 index posted its mildest reaction on FOMC day in two years. Though it was the first in 11 meetings where policymakers held rates, they also lifted forecasts for higher borrowing costs of 5.6% in 2023, implying two additional quarter-point rate hikes or one half-point increase before the end of the year, although judging by the market reaction, few believed this particular forecast.
“Markets are still pricing in a lower path of interest rates compared to the Federal Reserve’s dot plot,” said Janet Mui, head of market analysis at RBC Brewin Dolphin. “While we are close to peak rates, it is uncertain how long rates will stay high. Markets have a more dovish lens on that.”
European stocks followed their Asian counterparts lower as investors were left disappointed by the lack of any fresh stimulus measures from China. Traders are also keeping an eye on details surrounding the meeting between Blinken and Xi in Beijing.
The Stoxx 600 is down 0.5% with with chemicals, construction and basic resources leading declines, while financials and insurance are the only sectors in the green. Among the biggest individual movers, Sartorius AG slumped 15% after issuing a bigger-than-expected profit warning. Here are some of the more notable movers:
- MTU Aero Engine gains as much as 4.5% after it raised its earnings forecast for the current financial year. Jefferies says the timing and magnitude of the revision so early in the year should be well received
- Granges gains as much as 7.4% after it was upgraded to buy from hold in the short term at Handelsbanken, which projected the Swedish aluminum engineering firm may post a record 2Q
- Crayon shares rise as much as 10% after Bloomberg News reported that the Norwegian IT consultancy is said to be exploring options including a sale
- Avacta shares rise as much as 12% after the life sciences-focused small-cap firm said it had a “strong” cash balance of £27 million and no fundraising is imminent
- Sartorius AG and its French-listed subsidiary Sartorius Stedim Biotech both plunge after cutting full-year forecasts, with Sartorius AG down as much as 15% and Sartorius Stedim down 16%
- Nordnet sinks as much as 12% after receiving its only negative analyst view as JPMorgan cuts the Swedish investment and savings platform to underweight, citing higher cost of deposits and weak inflows
- ALK-Abello shares fall as much as 9.4%, the most since April, after CEO Carsten Hellmann announced he will step down from his role at the Danish allergy drugmaker at the end of 2023
Earlier in the session, Chinese tech companies dropped after China disappointed hopes for further stimulus. Asian stocks were mostly negative following last Friday’s US losses while risk appetite was also contained as markets digested US-China talks and with US markets closed. Nonetheless, ASX 200 (+0.6%) bucked the trend with the index buoyed as strength in the defensive, financial and tech sectors made up for the losses in mining-related stocks. Nikkei 225 (-1.1%) was subdued and eventually breached through earlier support around the 33,500 level, after a torrid rally that helped send the index to the highest level since 1990.
Hang Seng (-0.8%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.5%) were lower amid ongoing China growth concerns with the likes of Goldman Sachs, Nomura and UBS all cutting their Chinese GDP forecasts for 2023, while participants also digested the meeting between US Secretary of State Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin in Beijing which was said to be candid, substantive and constructive although lacked any major breakthroughs aside from agreeing to schedule a reciprocal visit at a suitable time.
Reports covering China’s State Council meeting on Friday, chaired by Premier Li Qiang, were light on details about any potential stimulus or timing. The lack of tangible evidence for support adds to worries over a slowing economy, unnerving investors who had bid up Chinese equities last week in the hope of a sweeping package.
Treasury futures are lower with cash markets closed for to the Juneteenth holiday in the US. Bunds and gilts are also in the red.
In Fx, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1%. The Norwegian krone is the weakest of the G10 currencies, falling 0.4% versus the greenback. The offshore yuan is down 0.4%.
In commodities crude futures decline with WTI falling 0.4% to trade near $71.50. Spot gold is little changed around $1,956
There is nothing on today’s US calendar.
* * *
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pacific stocks were mostly negative following last Friday’s losses on Wall St, while risk appetite was also contained as markets digested US-China talks and with US markets closed on Monday for Juneteenth. ASX 200 bucked the trend with the index buoyed as strength in the defensive, financial and tech sectors made up for the losses in mining-related stocks. Nikkei 225 was subdued and eventually slipped below earlier support around the 33,500 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were lower amid ongoing China growth concerns with the likes of Goldman Sachs, Nomura and UBS all cutting their Chinese GDP forecasts, while participants also digested the meeting between US Secretary of State Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin in Beijing which was said to be candid, substantive and constructive although lacked any breakthroughs aside from agreeing to schedule a reciprocal visit at a suitable time. US equity futures were uneventful after Friday’s retreat and approaching holiday lull. European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7% after the cash market closed up 0.7% on Friday.
Top Asian News
- US President Biden said he is hoping to meet with Chinese President Xi in the next several months.
- US Secretary of State Blinken held candid, substantive and constructive talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin in Beijing and emphasised the importance of diplomacy and maintaining open channels of communication to reduce the risk of misperception and miscalculation. Blinken raised issues of concern and opportunities to explore cooperation on shared transnational issues with China where interests align, while Blinken invited Qin to visit Washington to continue the discussions and they agreed to schedule a reciprocal visit at a suitable time, according to a State Department spokesperson cited Reuters.
- US State Department senior officials said US Secretary of State Blinken’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart was direct and it was clear there are profound differences between the two countries, while both officials were well-prepared and it was a “real conversation”. Furthermore, Blinken made it clear that the US does not want to decouple from China and the two sides expressed a desire to stabilise the relationship and prevent competition from veering into conflict, as well as agreed to work together to increase commercial flights between the US and China, according to Reuters.
- Chinese Foreign Minister Qin said during the meeting with US Secretary of State Blinken that China is committed to building a stable, predictable and constructive relationship with the US, while Qin made clear the concerns on China’s core interests with the Taiwan issue the most important issue and risk in Sino-US relations, according to state media.
- China warned of flood risks across large parts of the country and asked local authorities to closely watch for flood threats amid expectations of heavy rains in the days ahead, according to The Star.
- Goldman Sachs cut its China GDP growth target for 2023 to 5.4% from 6.0% and cut the 2024 target to 4.5% from 4.6%, while it said that China’s ongoing stimulus is incapable of generating a strong growth impulse. It was separately reported that Nomura reduced its Chinese 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5.1% from 5.5% and UBS also lowered its China 2023 growth forecast to 5.2% from 5.7%.
European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7% after the cash market closed up 0.7% on Friday.
Top European News
- UK Chancellor Hunt ruled out providing direct fiscal support for households as mortgage rates soar, according to FT.
- UK Chancellor Hunt told ministers to speed up the adoption of AI to boost the economy with the UK aiming to ease the pressure on public services by focusing on opportunities provided by new tech, according to FT.
- ECB President Lagarde said on Friday that it is very likely that the ECB will continue to hike rates in July and will then follow a data-dependent approach after July, while she added inflation is projected to remain too high for too long.
- Fitch affirmed Luxembourg at AAA; Outlook Stable and affirmed Cyprus at BBB; Outlook Stable, while it affirmed Norway at AAA; Outlook Stable.
FX
- DXY was rangebound amid the US holiday weekend and ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony in Congress from mid-week, while comments late on Friday from Fed’s Goolsbee did little to shift the dial in which he stated that the Fed is on a reconnaissance mission and will scope it out, as well as noted conflicting data on whether they have done enough.
- EUR/USD was little changed on a 1.09 handle following the absence of any fresh catalysts from the bloc over the weekend.
- GBP/USD lacked direction ahead of the BoE rate decision on Thursday and after UK Chancellor Hunt ruled out providing direct fiscal support for households as mortgage rates surge.
- USD/JPY marginally pulled back from last week’s peak after stalling near the 142.00 handle.
- Antipodeans were pressured owing to the risk aversion and deteriorating outlook on China.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1201 vs exp. 7.1186 (prev. 7.1289)
- US Treasury’s Semi-Annual Currency Report on Friday refrained from designating any countries as currency manipulators, while China, South Korea, Germany, Malaysia, Singapore, Switzerland and Taiwan remained on the currency “monitoring list”.
Fixed Income
- 10yr UST futures traded rangebound owing to the closure of US cash trade on Monday and with participants awaiting Fed Chair Powell’s testimony at the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress from Wednesday.
- Bund futures were steady with prices kept afloat after Friday’s intraday rebound and with the jury out regarding ECB rates for September after a telegraphed hike for next month.
- 10yr JGB futures kept afloat but with price action restricted due to the absence of any data releases from Japan and lack of additional BoJ purchases today.
Commodities
- Crude futures were pressured amid the risk aversion and a pullback in WTI from resistance at USD 72/bbl.
- Kuwait issued a decree forming a new Cabinet headed by its emir Sheikh Ahmed Nawaf Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah and businessman Saad Al Barrak was named as the new Oil Minister, according to state news agency KUNA.
- Kuwait Oil Company CEO said Kuwait’s output capacity is above 2.8mln bpd now and will reach 3mln bpd in 2025, while he added the Kuwait Oil Company is spending KWD 13bln on oil projects during the next 5 years and both the Kuwait Oil Company and Kuwait Gulf Oil Company are committed to reaching 4mln bpd capacity in 2035.
- Iraq launched a sixth round of gas exploration licensing in several provinces, according to Reuters.
- Spot gold traded flat alongside an uneventful dollar and with US participants away on Monday.
- Copper futures trickled lower with demand dampened by the cautious mood and China growth concerns.
Crypto
- Bitcoin eked a slight gain overnight with price action rangebound beneath the USD 26,500 level.
- US SEC secured emergency relief to protect Binance.US customers’ assets with an order that ensures Binance.US customers can continue to withdraw their assets. Binance said it maintains that the SEC’s request for emergency relief was entirely unwarranted and it is pleased that the disagreement was resolved on mutually acceptable terms, while it added that user funds have been and always will be safe and secure on all Binance-affiliated platforms, according to Reuters. There were also separate reports that the Binance CEO said they issued a cease-and-desist order to the scammer entity Binance Nigeria Limited.
Geopolitics
- US President Biden said it is totally irresponsible of Russia to deploy tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus and noted that Ukraine has to meet the same standards to be a part of NATO as all other nations, according to Reuters.
- Russian President Putin told the delegation of African leaders in St Petersburg that Russia welcomes the leaders’ balanced stance on the conflict regarding Ukraine and that Russia is open to dialogue with all those that want peace based on principles of justice and consideration of the legitimate interests of the parties, according to Reuters.
- Russia’s defence ministry said Russia repelled eight Ukrainian attacks on the Donetsk front and that the most active Ukrainian attacks are on the Zaporizhzhia front, according to TASS. In relevant news, Ukrainian forces took control of the Piatykhatky settlement on the Zaporizhzhia front, while the Governor of Russia’s Bryansk region said air defences repelled an attack by Ukrainian drones on an oil pumping station on the Druzhba oil pipeline, according to Reuters.
- UN said Russia has so far declined the request to access areas under its temporary military control following the Ukrainian dam burst, while the UN said aid cannot be denied to people who need it and it urged Russia to act in accordance with obligations under international humanitarian law.
- North Korea said its failed satellite launch was the gravest mistake and it ordered workers to analyse the failed military satellite launch and prepare for another in the near future. Furthermore, North Korea will consistently adhere to the orientation of developing nuclear weapons and the line of bolstering up the nuclear force set by the party, as well as strengthen solidarity with countries that oppose the US strategy of world supremacy, according to KCNA.
- Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister arrived in Tehran on Saturday amid a rapprochement between the two Middle Eastern nations, according to Iranian state television.
US Event Calendar
- Nothing on the calendar
DB’s Jim Ried concludes the overnight wrap
It’s not easy to find the main highlight this week with a number of events that could be meaningful but could also pass without incident. Powell’s semi-annual testimony to the House and the Senate on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, should be the key event but coming so soon after the FOMC it’s hard to know what he can say that will be particularly new. Around this there is plenty of Fed and ECB speak as you can see in the day-by-day calendar at the end. They will I’m sure give their nuances to the policy meetings last week.
Given an increasing global focus on rising UK rates of late, then UK CPI (Wednesday) and the expected 25bps hike on Thursday, and associated commentary, could have a big impact on Gilts and with it global bonds. There was lots in the weekend papers about the upcoming mortgage refi wave over the next couple of years if rates stay close to current levels. So this is becoming a big topic.
Staying with rates and yields, given how much US yields rallied for a period last week after jobless claims stayed surprisingly high, this Thursday’s release could be one of the data highlights of the week. The recent rise has an element of the fraudulent filings the market discovered a few weeks back, but it’s got slightly more broad-based since so this could be the first area where we see any genuine cracks in the labour markets. So all eyes on this.
Elsewhere, Global flash PMIs on Friday are always a big focus. Back in the US we have a slew of housing data including the NAHB housing market index today, housing starts and building permits tomorrow and existing home sales on Thursday. Housing is still very weak but many are seeing green shoots starting to emerge. The other key highlights are Japanese inflation on Friday and UK retail sales the same day and PPI in Germany tomorrow. In China, markets will focus on domestic banks’ loan prime rates fixings tomorrow following last week’s PBoC reverse repo and MLF rate cuts as well as a round of disappointing economic data amid the broader talk about the need for stimulus to support the waning recovery. The rest of the day-by-day week ahead is at the end as usual.
Asian equity markets are largely struggling at the start of the week, tracking Friday’s fall in US stocks. As I check my screens, the Hang Seng (-1.57%) is the biggest underperformer across the region with the CSI (-0.84%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.54%) and the KOSPI (-0.86%) also trading in the red. The Nikkei (-1.11%) is also down after 10 straight weeks of gains. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.66%) is bucking the wider sell off in the region.
On a positive note, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Qin Gang, China’s top foreign policy official in Beijing, to stabilise strained ties between the world’s biggest economies with a meeting with Xi Jinping potentially in the works.
Looking back at last week, in terms of data releases, on Friday we had the University of Michigan survey results, in which year-ahead inflation expectations receded for the second consecutive month, falling from 4.2% to 3.3% (vs 4.1% expected), its lowest level since March 2021. The downshift was much more modest for the 5-year period, falling from 3.1% to 3.0%, as expected by consensus. However, it was in consumer sentiment that we saw the most significant move, which rose from 59.2 in May to 63.9 in June (vs 60.0 expected). This is its highest level in four months as inflation continues to come down, though it is still below pre-SVB levels at the start of the year, and at historically low levels.
Despite the above slowing in inflation expectations, hawkish messaging from Fed governors saw the rate priced in for the July meeting move up +1.0bp on Friday to 5.258%. However, in weekly terms, this was down -3.5bps after the Fed skipped at the June meeting and also with earlier data releases hinting at rising slack in the US labour market. The largest move over the week was in the rate priced in for December, with the implied rate up +14.5bps to 5.206% (and +2.0bps on Friday), heavily influenced by the Fed dot plot showing two further hikes for this year.
With markets trimming back expectations of the timing and extent of rate cuts, US 2yr Treasury yields jumped +7.2bps on Friday, and +11.9bps week-on-week, reaching their highest level since early March. 10yr yields rose +4.5bps on Friday, and up +2.2bps on the week. The 2s10s slope thus inverted further to -95.3bps, its most negative weekly close in over 40 years, with just three lower daily values in early March 2023. Over in Europe, 10yr bunds sold off over the week, as yields climbed +9.7bps (despite a -3.0bps rally on Friday), whilst 2yr yields climbed +20.7bps in their largest up move since mid-April (-0.3bps on Friday), helped by a hawkish ECB.
Now turning to equities, the S&P 500 rally finally ran out of steam on Friday, down -0.37% after 6 consecutive days of gains. This still marked a +2.58% rise on the week to the highest weekly close since April 2022. At the sector level, the S&P reversal was led by the tech sector (-0.83%) as semiconductor manufacturer Micron Technology announced about half of its China customer revenue was at risk. This followed on from China’s bar on purchases of Micron chip products in late May amid elevated geopolitical tensions. Tech underperformance was reflected in the decline of NASDAQ (-0.68%) and the FANG+ (-1.27%) indices on Friday, though they were still up by +3.25% and +4.03%, respectively, on a weekly basis. The FANG+ Index is now 3% from its all-time highs in November 2021. With the US equities sell-off coming in the latter half of the day, in Europe the STOXX 600 climbed +0.53% on Friday before the US dip (and +1.48% week-on-week).
Lastly, in commodities, oil finished up the week strong off the back of optimism over China demand. This followed a Bloomberg report that the Chinese State Council was considering a sweep of stimulus proposals to boost consumption, as well as support for sectors including property. WTI crude gained +2.29% week-on-week bringing it to $71.78/bbl (+1.64% on Friday), and Brent crude gained +2.43% to $76.61/bbl (+1.24% on Friday). The news from China also lifted copper, which climbed +2.64% in weekly terms (but down a modest -0.31% on Friday), reaching its highest level for over a month.
END
TUESDAY
Futures, Global Markets Drop For Second Day After China Stimulus Disappoints
TUESDAY, JUN 20, 2023 – 08:06 AM
US equity futures and global markets slipped for a second day following Friday’s blow-off top and quad-witching reversal, as part of a global risk-off tone sparked by disappointment after investors were left underwhelmed by the latest reduction in the benchmark lending rates at Chinese banks – though bond yields are higher and USD weaker – as the second-quarter rally met resistance from economic headwinds and signs that positioning is overbought and extremely stretched. As of 7:45am ET, S&P futures were down 0.4% while Nasdaq futures dipped -0.3%. MegaCap tech names led the weakness with almost all in the red pre-mkt. Commodities are weaker, but oil and gold rose, while Bitcoin climbed for a second-straight day.
In premarket trading, US-listed Chinese stocks declined after China’s State Council failed to issue specific support measures and banks offered modest rate cuts, disappointing investors who had counted on more policy stimulus as the country’s economic recovery slows. Alibaba shares are down 2.5%, PDD Holdings -4.1%, JD.com -4%. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Nike dips 1.5% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley says inventory problems could weigh on margins in the fourth quarter, even as the bank predicts the sportswear brand will have “mostly in- line” results.
- SoFi Technologies extends losses in premarket trading after the stock slumped 10% on Friday as Piper Sandler, Oppenheimer and BofA downgraded the online personal finance company following its stock surge. Meanwhile, filings showed several SoFi insiders sold shares in the company.
- Lilium shares jump 12% in premarket trading after the electric aircraft maker announced an agreement with Heli-Eastern, a low-altitude general aviation carrier and helicopter service provider, for the purchase of Lilium Jets.
- Philip Morris shares rise as much as 1.4% in US premarket trading after Citi upgraded the tobacco company to buy from neutral. The broker opened a 3-month positive catalyst watch on the stock on expected acceleration in trading momentum following a “lackluster” first quarter.
Investors caught between fear of missing out and concerns markets have run too far, too fast are contending with overblown valuations and economic headwinds. Bullish positioning in US equity futures grew last week, taking it to the most extended levels for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in data going back to 2010, according to Citigroup strategists. The path of US monetary policy is another wild card. Fed Chair Powell will give his semi-annual report to Congress on Wednesday. Policymakers at the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at their latest meeting but warned of more tightening ahead. Investors also await the outcome of policy meetings in Turkey, the UK and Switzerland.
Weekend news report surrounding Blinken’s trip to China were generally positive and indicating that US/China may be attempting to hit a reset in their relationship. This holiday-shortened week is lighter in macro data relative to last week; flash PMIs on Friday the key event this week, while Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before Congress is the main policy highlight. Given the dearth of catalysts and the potential for significant Equity selling due to month-end rebalancing, is now the time for a pullback asks JPMorgan (we will share the answer in a following post).
Mike Riddell, global macro portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors, warned the full economic impact of the Fed’s aggressive rate increases has yet to come. “It feels like people are worried, but they’re not actually positioned that way,” Riddell said. “The vast majority of all the rate hikes in this cycle have not yet had any effect. But they will hit, and hit hard.”
The Fed decision last week came with forecasts for higher borrowing costs of 5.6% in 2023, implying two additional quarter-point rate hikes or one half-point increase before the end of the year. That contrasts with market pricing for some 20 basis points of tightening in the remainder of the year.
“We find it hard to get on board with the current excitement” Morgan Stanley’ Michael Wilson wrote in a note Tuesday, repeating what he has said for the duration of what is the best start of the year for the Nasdaq in history, keeping his clients from making huge gains, and ensuring that the market will continue to rise. “If second half growth re-accelerates as expected, then the bullish narrative being used to support equity prices will be proven correct. If not, many investors may be in for a rude awakening.”
European stocks and US futures are on the back foot after investors were left underwhelmed by the latest reduction in the benchmark lending rates at Chinese banks. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.4% and on course for a second day of declines with chemicals leading declines after Lanxess AG slumped as much as 18% on a profit warning, dragging shares of peers including BASF SE lower. Here are some notable European movers:
- Sanofi gains as much as 2.8% after the pharmaceutical group defeated Boehringer Ingelheim in an arbitration relating to heartburn medicine Zantac. Morgan Stanley says the decision “brings clarity”
- NKT rises as much as 4.3%, hitting a record high, after Carnegie initiates coverage with a buy rating and says the power cable manufacturer will play a key role in the green energy transition
- Telecom Italia rises as much as 2.8% after Bloomberg reported it’s close to entering into detailed negotiations with KKR over the sale of its network in a deal valued at as much as €23 billion
- Lanxess falls as much as 18% in early trading after the Germany-based specialty chemicals company issued a profit warning. Most other European chemicals stocks including Evonik, Covestro and Solvay also slide
- Neoen’s 2025 improved guidance triggered the biggest jump in its share price since December 2022 with analysts now expecting the average profit forecast for the French energy group to be revised upwards
- Lookers Plc shares jump after Alpha Auto Group agreed to buy the motor vehicle distributor at a premium of about 35% to the closing price
- Getinge falls as much as 6.7%, extending Monday’s 16% plunge triggered by a profit warning, after both Carnegie and Equita downgraded their ratings for the medical technology firm to hold
- Ocado trades 5.4% lower after JPMorgan lowered its price target on the stock citing challenges in traditional supermarkets shifting to automated warehouses, hurting the firm’s growth prospects
Earlier in the session, an index of Asia-Pacific shares slumped amid anxiety about Chinese growth and the lack of fresh stimulus from Beijing. Alibaba Group Holding whipsawed before trading about 1.5% lower following the surprise replacement of its chief executive and chairman.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite declined as markets were disappointed by the latest underwhelming Chinese stimulus after the PBoC cut its benchmark Loan Prime Rates by 10bps to boost liquidity. This was widely expected for the 1-year LPR after similar cuts to short-term funding rates but disappointed those anticipating a deeper 15bps cut for the 5-year LPR which is viewed as the reference for mortgages and in turn, weighed on HK-listed mainland developers.
- Australia’s ASX 200 was led higher by gains in the commodity-related sectors and following the RBA Minutes from the June meeting which noted that the arguments were “finely balanced” between a 25bps hike or keeping rates steady at the last meeting, while money markets are currently leaning towards rates being kept unchanged for next month.
- Nikkei 225 was negative although the losses were stemmed and the index held above the 33,000 level with several major Japanese trading houses dominating the list of best performers after Berkshire Hathaway lifted its stake in five of them.
- Indian markets recovered in the last trading hour to close among the best performing large markets in Asia, boosted by gains in technology and financial services companies. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.3% to 63,327.70 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced by a similar magnitude. Indian stocks bucked the weakness in regional stocks, which fell after a lower-than-expected cut in benchmark bank lending rates in China raised fresh concerns over the world’s second-largest economy. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 0.6% lower. HDFC Asset Management closed 11% higher after Abrdn Investment sold over 10% stake in bunched trade triggering bets on the stock’s possible inclusion in the MSCI Standard Indexes at upcoming review in August. HCL Technologies contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain, increasing 2.7%.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index is flat while the Japanese yen is the best performer among the G10 currencies, rising 0.2% versus the greenback following some grumbling out of Japanese officials warning that they may intervene in the FX market (they won’t). The Aussie dollar is the weakest after some surprisingly dovish RBA minutes.
In rates, treasury futures erased early losses to trade flat. 10Y TSY yields reversed most of the earlier rise which pushed them as high as 3.82%, and were last trading around 3.76% as cash trading resumes following Monday’s public holiday, unchanged from Friday’s close; European government bonds rallied across the board, with the sharpest gains for UK gilts and Swiss notes: bunds and gilts outperformed by 5.5bp and 11bp in the sector; long-end-led weakness steepens 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by ~1bp and ~1.5bp on the day.
The Dollar IG issuance slate empty so far, with around $15 billion of new issuance expected for holiday- shortened week. Treasury coupon issuance includes $12b 20-year bond reopening Wednesday and $19b 5-year TIPS reopening Thursday. The US session includes two Fed speakers ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s appearance before House Financial Services panel Wednesday.
In commodities, US crude futures edge higher with WTI rising 0.2% to trade near $71.90 despite the rout in China. Spot gold is little changed around $1,953
To the day ahead now, and data releases include US housing starts and building permits for May, along with the June Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing gauge and German PPI for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bullard, Williams and Barr, as well as ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Rehn, Muller, Vujcic and Simkus.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 4,436.25
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 460.49
- MXAP down 0.6% to 167.49
- MXAPJ down 0.8% to 529.01
- Nikkei little changed at 33,388.91
- Topix down 0.3% to 2,283.85
- Hang Seng Index down 1.5% to 19,607.08
- Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,240.37
- Sensex little changed at 63,114.33
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 7,357.83
- Kospi down 0.2% to 2,604.91
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.48%
- Euro up 0.1% to $1.0933
- Brent Futures up 0.6% to $76.54/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,953.39
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.12% to 102.40
Top Overnight News
- China lowered its 1 and 5-year Loan Prime Rates by 10bp each, a move that was expected and one which some economists fear doesn’t go far enough to bolster the economy. WSJ
- China is in talks to open a military training facility in Cuba, a move that could result in Chinese troops being stationed just 100 miles off Florida’s coast. WSJ
- Four US lawmakers will travel to Detroit today to press the chief executives of Ford and General Motors to cut their supply chains’ reliance on China, especially in electric-vehicle batteries. BBG
- Sec of State Blinken met with Chinese President Xi yesterday, an encouraging encounter and one that suggests the relationship is now on a (slightly) better track than before (Xi said it was “very good” that the two countries achieved progress in stabilizing ties). BBG
- Australian monetary official says the country’s unemployment rate needs to hit 4.5% (about 100bp higher than where it currently stands) with the economy growing at a below-trend pace for inflation to return to target. BBG
- Germany’s PPI cools far below expectations in May, coming in at +1% Y/Y (vs. the Street’s +1.7% forecast, and down from +4.1% in April (this number peaked at +45.85% back in Aug of 2022). RTRS
- ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane pushed back against talk of a Sept rate hike, saying there’s no reason to commit to action that far in the future. BBG
- SoftBank is set to win big from the AI revolution thanks to its early investments, Masayoshi Son said in his first public appearance in seven months. He told shareholders that he speaks with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman “several times a week.” BBG
- Alibaba Group said that Joseph Tsai will take over from Daniel Zhang as chairman while Eddie Wu will succeed Zhang as CEO in September, as the Chinese e-commerce giant undergoes a major reorganization. WSJ
- 10) The S&P 500 index-level return on equity (ROE) both including and excluding Financials remains in the 97th percentile vs. history. Trailing 4 quarter ROE at the index level fell for four consecutive quarters before rising in 1Q by 34 bp to 20.4%. However, the ROE remains well below its year-ago level of 21.9% and its peak of 22.1% reached in 4Q 2021
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks were mostly lower with risk appetite subdued in the absence of a lead from Wall St due to the Juneteenth holiday and as markets digested the PBoC’s cuts to its benchmark lending rates. ASX 200 was led higher by gains in the commodity-related sectors and following the RBA Minutes from the June meeting which noted that the arguments were “finely balanced” between a 25bps hike or keeping rates steady at the last meeting, while money markets are currently leaning towards rates being kept unchanged for next month. Nikkei 225 was negative although the losses were stemmed and the index held above the 33,000 level with several major Japanese trading houses dominating the list of best performers after Berkshire Hathaway lifted its stake in five of them. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. declined despite the PBoC’s liquidity boost and 10bp cuts to its benchmark Loan Prime Rates. This was widely expected for the 1-year LPR after similar cuts to short-term funding rates but disappointed those anticipating a deeper 15bps cut for the 5-year LPR which is viewed as the reference for mortgages and in turn, weighed on HK-listed mainland developers.
Top Asian News
- US President Biden said US-China relations are on the right trail, according to Reuters.
- US Secretary of State Blinken said he is deeply concerned about the three Americans wrongfully detained in China, according to CBS.
- Chinese Premier Li held talks with the German business sector on Monday in which the meeting discussed the economic situation in China and globally, technology development trends, and views on so-called “de-risking”, according to Global Times.
- Japan’s Foreign Ministry called on China to take seriously WTO findings that China’s anti-dumping measures on Japan’s stainless steel are inconsistent with the WTO agreement, according to Reuters.
- RBA Minutes from the June meeting stated that the Board considered a rate rise of 25bps or holding steady and reconsidering at a later meeting, while arguments were finely balanced but the Board decided the case for an immediate hike was stronger. RBA noted the increase would provide greater confidence that inflation would return to target over the period ahead, while it stated the balance of risks on inflation shifted to the upside compared with a month earlier and lags in the transmission of monetary policy meant there is a risk that past tightening could lead to a sharper economic slowdown.
European bourses are under pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%, with broader macro updates somewhat light ahead of more Central Bank speak. Sectors are mainly in the red with Chemicals lagging after a Lanxess profit warning while Health Care outperforms after a favourable Sanofi litigation update. Stateside, futures are softer with pressure picking up as the European morning progresses and the ES moves below 4450, ES -0.4% ahead of Fed speak incl. voters Williams & Barr before Powell on Wednesday/Thursday. Adobe (ADBE) USD 20bln deal to acquire Figma is under threat from EU investigation, according to FT. Lockheed Martin (LMT) has raised concerns to the FTC and US DoD about L3harris’ (LXH) acquisition of Aerojet Rocktdyne (AJRD).
Top European News
- ECB’s de Guindos said there is no doubt that inflation will ease but also noted the slowdown in core inflation may be limited, according to Bloomberg.
- ECB’s Stournaras said a further decrease in inflation is expected and they cannot exclude a further hike but cannot say now and decisions are data-driven. Furthermore, Stournaras responded that it might be six months or a year and it depends on the data when asked about keeping rates at the terminal and said they are definitely close to the end of rate hikes.
- EU is to focus on export controls and critical technology in its security plan, according to Bloomberg.
- EU countries failed to agree on a deal on power market reforms and talks will continue after Monday.
- NHC said Tropical Storm Bret is expected to strengthen and interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the system, while it added that Bret could become a hurricane in a couple of days and is about 1,210 miles east of the southern Windward Islands.
- The European Commission will today ask EU member countries to contribute “tens of billions of euros more” to top up the Union’s budget for 2024-2027, according to Politico.
FX
- DXY drifts after a small extension of recovery rally to 102.620, but keeps sight of 102.500 as US markets return from the Juneteenth holiday.
- Yen rebounds sharply and swiftly after a false break below 142.00 vs Dollar where decent circa 2bln option expiry interest resides.
- Aussie loses 0.6800+ status against Greenback as RBA minutes reveal finely balanced 25bp June hike.
- Euro defends 1.0900 vs Buck again and probes Fib resistance, Pound pulls back from just over 1.2800 against Dollar on the eve of UK CPI data.
Fixed Income
- Bunds and Gilts bounce further from Monday’s lows in consolidative trade before topping out ahead of 133.00 and just over 94.50 respectively.
- US Treasuries pare catch-up losses in response as T-note hovers above worst levels within 112-23/113-07+ range.
- 2 and 5 year German and UK supply reasonably well received, but not snapped up given 3%+ and close to 5% respective yields.
- UK sells GBP 3.75bln 4.50% 2028 Gilt; b/c 2.39x, average yield 4.932% and tail 0.7bps.
- Germany sells EUR 4.488bln vs exp. EUR 5.5bln 2.80% 2025 Schatz: b/c 1.4x (prev. 1.30x), average yield 3.15% (prev. 2.82%) & retention 18.4% (prev. 18.52%)
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks are essentially flat after paring opening losses which seemingly emanated from ongoing Chinese growth concerns with more desks downgrading their 2023 view while the PBoC cut its LPRs.
- WTI and Brent are currently in proximity to the USD 72.00/bbl and USD 77.00/bbl marks, towards the top-end of their respective ranges.
- Spot gold is relatively rangebound in-fitting with relatively contained action for the DXY thus far, with the 100-DMA in proximity at USD 1942/oz. Conversely, base metals remain subdued continuing APAC performance given economic concerns out of China and a shallower-than-expected 5yr LPR cut.
- Seaborne shipments of June-loading Russian Urals oil to China fell 50% for June 1st-19th M/M.
- Qatar is set to strike a second big LNG supply deal with China, according to FT.
- China 2023 Crude Oil demand is seen at 740mln metric tons, +3.5% Y/Y, according to CNPC Research. Diesel demand is seen reaching 98.9% of 2019 level. Kerosene demand around 95% of 2019 level. Gasoline demand seen up 0.8% vs 2019 level.
Geopolitics
- Beijing plans a new training facility in Cuba which raises the prospect of Chinese troops on America’s doorstep, according to WSJ.
- Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister said the biggest blow in Ukraine’s offensive is yet to come, while he added that it is difficult to advance and Ukraine must prepare for a tough duel, according to Reuters.
- Kyiv is in talks with Western arms manufacturers to boost output and set up production in Ukraine, according to Reuters.
- EU is readying a EUR 50bln Ukraine package, according to Bloomberg,
- EU report on Ukraine’s membership bid said Kyiv has met 2 out of the 7 conditions to start formal accession talks, according to Reuters citing sources.
- US President Biden said the threat of Russian President Putin using tactical nuclear weapons is ‘real’, according to Reuters.
- Russian Defence Minister says Ukraine plans to hit Crimea with Himars and Storm Shadows, according to Tass; says the use of these weapons would mean full-scale involvement of the US and the UK in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: May Building Permits, est. 1.43m, prior 1.42m, revised 1.42m
- May Building Permits MoM, est. 0.6%, prior -1.5%, revised -1.4%
- May Housing Starts, est. 1.4m, prior 1.4m
- May Housing Starts MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 2.2%
- 08:30: June Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufactu, prior -16.0
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The last 24 hours have been fairly quiet for markets given the US holiday, but bonds and equities were soft yesterday which partly reflects a weaker end to the US session before the long weekend. Nevertheless it was enough to see the STOXX 600 (-1.02%) post its worst start to a week since the turmoil in March. Asian markets are on the softer side as well.
Here in the UK, we experienced the sharpest end of the bond selloff, with yields on 2yr gilts (+14.2bps) closing at a post-2008 high of 5.06%. Likewise, the 10yr gilt yield (+7.9bps) closed at its highest level since the mini-budget turmoil last October at 4.48%, and is now just a few basis points shy of surpassing that milestone too. Remember that 2yr gilt yields have risen by more than 100bps since the massive upside surprise in last month’s CPI print, and that’s been filtering through to the mortgage market. In fact, there were plenty of domestic headlines on the issue well outside the financial press yesterday, since Moneyfacts reported that the average 2yr mortgage rate was now above 6% for the first time since the aftermath of the mini-budget. You’d have to go back to pre-GFC days for the last time mortgage rates were that high before that very brief period last year. This is real stored up potential pain as the slow refinancing wave materialises over the next few quarters.
The latest moves come as investors are still repricing their expectations for the Bank of England base rate, particularly after the very strong employment data last week. One particular milestone from yesterday was that for the first time since the mini-budget turmoil, overnight index swaps were pricing in a 6% base rate as more likely than not by the close, and not just on an intraday basis. This positioning comes ahead of a pivotal few days for UK macro, since we’ll get the May CPI release first thing tomorrow, and then the Bank of England’s latest policy decision on Thursday, where another 25bp hike is widely expected.
These themes were also evident across Europe, since investors grew in confidence that the ECB would deliver another hike after July in September, which if realised would take their deposit rate up to 4%. In part, that was thanks to remarks from Isabel Schnabel of the ECB’s Executive Board, who gave a speech titled “The risks of stubborn inflation”, where she said they should “err on the side of doing too much rather than too little”. There was less conviction elsewhere from other members of the Governing Council, but none were ruling out the possibility of a September hike either. For instance, chief economist Lane said that “September is so far away, let’s see in September”. Otherwise, Slovakia’s Kazimir said that September was “open and it remains to be seen what will be done”, and Lithuania’s Simkus said it was “still too early” to make a judgement on that meeting.
This backdrop led to a fresh selloff in European sovereign debt, with yields on 10yr bunds (+4.3bps), OATs (+5.8bps) and BTPs (+8.6bps) all moving higher on the day. And at the front-end of the curve, we also saw the 2yr German yield (+3.5bps) hit a post-SVB high of 3.13%. But all this news of higher rates served to knock equities back, with the major indices all losing ground across the continent. For example, the STOXX 600 (-1.02%) lost a decent amount of ground, whilst it was much the same story for the DAX (-0.96%), the CAC 40 (-1.01%) and the FTSE MIB (-0.39%).
In overnight trading, S&P 500 (-0.23%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.21%) futures are inching lower after the holiday, with yields on 10yr USTs (+3.31bps) moving higher and trading at 3.79% after being closed yesterday. Fed funds futures have also moved in a slightly more hawkish direction since Friday’s close with the rate priced in for the December meeting up another couple of basis points to what would be a post-SVB closing high of 5.22%.
Asian equity markets are also declining this morning with the global risk softness. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) have slightly added to the weaker sentiment as they have delivered a smaller Loan Prime Rate (LPR) cut than expected despite deepening struggle in housing market. They cut the 1yr and 5yr loan prime rates by 10 basis points to 3.55% and 4.2% respectively, with the market expecting the latter, a key benchmark for mortgages, to be cut 15bps. Nevertheless they have eased these for the first time in 10 months as the country’s post-pandemic rebound is stalling. The move came after monetary policymakers cut two other key rates last week while injecting billions into financial markets and contrasting China with their peers in the West.
As I check my screens, the Hang Seng (-1.50%) is leading losses with the Nikkei (-0.62%) and the KOSPI (-0.17%) also trading in the red. Elsewhere, in mainland China, the Shanghai Composite (-0.18%) is trading on a negative footing with the CSI (-0.03%) just below flat.
There was plenty happening on the geopolitical scene yesterday, since US Secretary of State Blinken met with Chinese President Xi on his visit to Beijing. The fact the two met was seen as a positive sign, and Blinken said to reporters after that “My hope and expectation is we’ll have better communications, better engagement going forward”. Blinken will now be travelling to London for the Ukraine Recovery Conference, which will feature appearances from European Commission President Von der Leyen, as well as UK PM Sunak.
Staying on politics, today will also see the European Commission present its economic security strategy, which comes ahead of next week’s summit of EU leaders in Brussels. This is a topic that’s risen up the agenda over the last couple of years, particularly given the issues caused by Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and growing US-China tensions. For those interested in more, our research colleagues in Frankfurt have just published a pack running through the EU Green Deal Industrial Plan (link here). It’s a great primer on the topic
Another European story of interest that could have important implications for the German economy has been the declining water level on the Rhine recently, which is beneath seasonal averages again. Indeed, data for the measured water level at Kaub showed it down to 1.27m yesterday evening, albeit that’s still well above the lows around 30cm from last August that led to major disruption. Our colleagues in the German economics team have argued that if we get to the lows of last year, that could impair the economic recovery, which they’re already expecting to be very modest anyway (link here)
Finally on the data side, there wasn’t much of note, but the main release was the NAHB’s housing market index from the US. That rose for a 6th consecutive month in June to 55 (vs. 51 expected), which is steadily reversing a run of 12 consecutive declines over the entirety of 2022.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include US housing starts and building permits for May, along with German PPI for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bullard, Williams and Barr, as well as ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Rehn, Muller, Vujcic and Simkus.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
Equities slip, AUD sinks on RBA Minutes & as PBoC disappoints; Fed speak due – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, JUN 20, 2023 – 06:23 AM
- European bourses & US futures are pressured ahead of the return of US participants and key Fed speakers
- DXY has drifted after a brief/small extension to 102.62, JPY rebounds though notes OpEx while AUD lags after RBA Minutes
- PBoC cut the LPRs as expected, though the 5yrs magnitude disappointed some expectations; Biden said relations are on the correct trail
- EGB benchmarks consolidation topped out near round figures with UTS paring losses in response though still underwater
- Crude benchmarks pare to near unchanged, spot gold rangebound while base metals languish on ongoing APAC economic concerns
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits & Housing Starts, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Barr & Bullard, ECB’s de Guindos
More Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
JUNETEENTH RECAP
- Chinese President Xi said he hopes the visit by Secretary Blinken could make positive contributions to stabilizing US-China relations, made the position clear to Blinken. Adds, “very good” progress was made on US-China ties and China respects US interests and does not seek to challenge or displace the US; hopes to see a sound and steady China-US relationship.. Follows a meeting between Blinken and Yi/Gang, which was described as “good or not bad” by Hu Xijin.
- US Secretary of State Blinken says US is clear-eyed about the challenges that China poses; has had important conversations with Xi.
- US President Biden said he is hoping to meet with Chinese President Xi in the next several months. Prior to the above meeting occurring.
- Goldman Sachs cuts China’s GDP growth target for 2023 to 5.4% from 6.0% and cuts 2024 target to 4.5% from 4.6%, while it says China’s ongoing stimulus is incapable of generating a strong growth impulse. Nomura has recently reduced its Chinese 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5.1% from 5.5% and UBS also lowered its China 2023 growth forecast to 5.2% from 5.7%.
- ECB’s Lane says inflation will come down fairly quickly in next couple of years to the 2% target; another hike in July seems appropriate, and then we will see in September.
- ECB’s Schnabel says the fact that we underestimated inflation persistence last year raises the probability that we are underestimating inflation now; need to remain “highly data-dependent”, err on side of doing too much rather than too little.
- Mid-June Manheim wholesale used vehicle index at 217.2mln, down 3.2% M/M and down 9.4% Y/Y.
- UK average two-year fixed mortgage rate increased from 5.98% on Friday to 6.01% early on Monday, according to Moneyfacts.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are under pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%, with broader macro updates somewhat light ahead of more Central Bank speak.
- Sectors are mainly in the red with Chemicals lagging after a Lanxess profit warning while Health Care outperforms after a favourable Sanofi litigation update.
- Stateside, futures are softer with pressure picking up as the European morning progresses and the ES moves below 4450, ES -0.4% ahead of Fed speak incl. voters Williams & Barr before Powell on Wednesday/Thursday.
- Adobe (ADBE) USD 20bln deal to acquire Figma is under threat from EU investigation, according to FT.
- Lockheed Martin (LMT) has raised concerns to the FTC and US DoD about L3harris’ (LXH) acquisition of Aerojet Rocktdyne (AJRD).
- Click here and here for a recap of the main European updates.
- Click here for more detail.
FX
- DXY drifts after a small extension of recovery rally to 102.620, but keeps sight of 102.500 as US markets return from the Juneteenth holiday.
- Yen rebounds sharply and swiftly after a false break below 142.00 vs Dollar where decent circa 2bln option expiry interest resides.
- Aussie loses 0.6800+ status against Greenback as RBA minutes reveal finely balanced 25bp June hike.
- Euro defends 1.0900 vs Buck again and probes Fib resistance, Pound pulls back from just over 1.2800 against Dollar on the eve of UK CPI data.
- Click here for notable OpEx for the NY Cut.
- Click here for more detail.
FIXED INCOME
- Bunds and Gilts bounce further from Monday’s lows in consolidative trade before topping out ahead of 133.00 and just over 94.50 respectively.
- US Treasuries pare catch-up losses in response as T-note hovers above worst levels within 112-23/113-07+ range.
- 2 and 5 year German and UK supply reasonably well received, but not snapped up given 3%+ and close to 5% respective yields.
- UK sells GBP 3.75bln 4.50% 2028 Gilt; b/c 2.39x, average yield 4.932% and tail 0.7bps.
- Germany sells EUR 4.488bln vs exp. EUR 5.5bln 2.80% 2025 Schatz: b/c 1.4x (prev. 1.30x), average yield 3.15% (prev. 2.82%) & retention 18.4% (prev. 18.52%)
- Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES
- Crude benchmarks are essentially flat after paring opening losses which seemingly emanated from ongoing Chinese growth concerns with more desks downgrading their 2023 view while the PBoC cut its LPRs.
- WTI and Brent are currently in proximity to the USD 72.00/bbl and USD 77.00/bbl marks, towards the top-end of their respective ranges.
- Spot gold is relatively rangebound in-fitting with relatively contained action for the DXY thus far, with the 100-DMA in proximity at USD 1942/oz. Conversely, base metals remain subdued continuing APAC performance given economic concerns out of China and a shallower-than-expected 5yr LPR cut.
- Seaborne shipments of June-loading Russian Urals oil to China fell 50% for June 1st-19th M/M.
- Qatar is set to strike a second big LNG supply deal with China, according to FT.
- China 2023 Crude Oil demand is seen at 740mln metric tons, +3.5% Y/Y, according to CNPC Research. Diesel demand is seen reaching 98.9% of 2019 level. Kerosene demand around 95% of 2019 level. Gasoline demand seen up 0.8% vs 2019 level.
- Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- ECB’s de Guindos said there is no doubt that inflation will ease but also noted the slowdown in core inflation may be limited, according to Bloomberg.
- ECB’s Stournaras said a further decrease in inflation is expected and they cannot exclude a further hike but cannot say now and decisions are data-driven. Furthermore, Stournaras responded that it might be six months or a year and it depends on the data when asked about keeping rates at the terminal and said they are definitely close to the end of rate hikes.
- EU is to focus on export controls and critical technology in its security plan, according to Bloomberg.
- EU countries failed to agree on a deal on power market reforms and talks will continue after Monday.
- NHC said Tropical Storm Bret is expected to strengthen and interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the system, while it added that Bret could become a hurricane in a couple of days and is about 1,210 miles east of the southern Windward Islands.
- The European Commission will today ask EU member countries to contribute “tens of billions of euros more” to top up the Union’s budget for 2024-2027, according to Politico.
NOTABLE DATA
- German Producer Prices YY (May) 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 4.1%); MM (May) -1.4% vs. Exp. -0.7% (Prev. 0.3%)
CRYPTO
- Coinbase (COIN) says PayPal (PYPL) sells or withdrawals are currently unavailable for UK/CA customers, according to its status page.
GEOPOLITICS
- Beijing plans a new training facility in Cuba which raises the prospect of Chinese troops on America’s doorstep, according to WSJ.
- Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister said the biggest blow in Ukraine’s offensive is yet to come, while he added that it is difficult to advance and Ukraine must prepare for a tough duel, according to Reuters.
- Kyiv is in talks with Western arms manufacturers to boost output and set up production in Ukraine, according to Reuters.
- EU is readying a EUR 50bln Ukraine package, according to Bloomberg,
- EU report on Ukraine’s membership bid said Kyiv has met 2 out of the 7 conditions to start formal accession talks, according to Reuters citing sources.
- US President Biden said the threat of Russian President Putin using tactical nuclear weapons is ‘real’, according to Reuters.
- Russian Defence Minister says Ukraine plans to hit Crimea with Himars and Storm Shadows, according to Tass; says the use of these weapons would mean full-scale involvement of the US and the UK in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mostly lower with risk appetite subdued in the absence of a lead from Wall St due to the Juneteenth holiday and as markets digested the PBoC’s cuts to its benchmark lending rates.
- ASX 200 was led higher by gains in the commodity-related sectors and following the RBA Minutes from the June meeting which noted that the arguments were “finely balanced” between a 25bps hike or keeping rates steady at the last meeting, while money markets are currently leaning towards rates being kept unchanged for next month.
- Nikkei 225 was negative although the losses were stemmed and the index held above the 33,000 level with several major Japanese trading houses dominating the list of best performers after Berkshire Hathaway lifted its stake in five of them.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. declined despite the PBoC’s liquidity boost and 10bp cuts to its benchmark Loan Prime Rates. This was widely expected for the 1-year LPR after similar cuts to short-term funding rates but disappointed those anticipating a deeper 15bps cut for the 5-year LPR which is viewed as the reference for mortgages and in turn, weighed on HK-listed mainland developers.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun) 3.55% vs. Exp. 3.55% (Prev. 3.65%)
- Chinese Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun) 4.20% vs. Exp. 4.15% (Prev. 4.30%)
- PBoC injected CNY 182bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.90% for a CNY 180bln net injection.
- US President Biden said US-China relations are on the right trail, according to Reuters.
- US Secretary of State Blinken said he is deeply concerned about the three Americans wrongfully detained in China, according to CBS.
- Chinese Premier Li held talks with the German business sector on Monday in which the meeting discussed the economic situation in China and globally, technology development trends, and views on so-called “de-risking”, according to Global Times.
- Japan’s Foreign Ministry called on China to take seriously WTO findings that China’s anti-dumping measures on Japan’s stainless steel are inconsistent with the WTO agreement, according to Reuters.
- RBA Minutes from the June meeting stated that the Board considered a rate rise of 25bps or holding steady and reconsidering at a later meeting, while arguments were finely balanced but the Board decided the case for an immediate hike was stronger. RBA noted the increase would provide greater confidence that inflation would return to target over the period ahead, while it stated the balance of risks on inflation shifted to the upside compared with a month earlier and lags in the transmission of monetary policy meant there is a risk that past tightening could lead to a sharper economic slowdown.
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.44 PTS OR 0.47% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 305.81 PTS OR 1.54% /The Nikkei closed UP 18.49 OR 0.06% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.79 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1760 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.1845 /Oil UP TO 72.09 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 76.75 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
FRANCE
Huge swing towards the ultra right LePen
(Brook /ReMix)
French Voters Flock To Le Pen As Anti-Macron Sentiment Fuels Right-Wing Populism
TUESDAY, JUN 20, 2023 – 04:15 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,
French voters are increasingly more supportive of French nationalist Marine Le Pen and the conservative policies advocated by National Rally (RN), new polling suggests.
A new survey conducted by Ifop-Fiducial for the Journal du Dimanche (JDD) and Sud Radio revealed that more than four in 10 French voters (41 percent) want to see Le Pen dethrone incumbent French President Emmanuel Macron at the next election, an increase in popularity of seven percentage points from 2021.
Similarly, 42 percent of respondents confirmed they have voted for a candidate affiliated with Le Pen’s National Rally in the past, seven percentage points more than in 2021.
The numbers show a considerable swing towards the right of French politics, and they are a marked improvement for Le Pen who received 23.2 percent of the first-round vote in the presidential election last April.
She later received 41.5 percent of the second-round vote in a run-off with the victorious Macron, who was reelected with 58.5 percent of the vote.
The latest poll is consistent with other surveys that have shown the French electorate’s disillusionment with Macron, and more voters are seeing Marine Le Pen as a viable alternative to the status quo.
A poll published in April revealed that Le Pen would defeat Macron by double digits, with 55 percent of the vote, and members of President Macron’s Renaissance party are concerned at the current trajectory.
“I have the impression of a tsunami advancing,” said Jacqueline Macquet, a Renaissance MP.
Macron’s approval rating has failed to surpass 40 percent since May 2022, hitting a low of 27 percent last month before bouncing back to 30 percent. Much of the French electorate’s dislike towards the French president can be attributed to his widely unpopular pension reform, which has sparked mass protests and riots across the country for much of this year.
Marine Le Pen has reveled in the chaos that ensued following Macron’s decision to bypass a parliamentary vote on the dreaded pension reform. This, combined with her longstanding concerns about crime and mass immigration — albeit toning down her rhetoric to attract swing voters — has seen her popularity soar.
Specifically on immigration, Le Pen recently called for a referendum to enable the French people to have their say after polling published last week revealed that 63 percent of voters consider the country’s migration and asylum policy to be too lax.
“Opinion poll after opinion poll has shown that the French people overwhelmingly want a tightening of immigration policy,” Le Pen tweeted recently.
“The Macronie will not be able to lock itself in denial forever. The time has come to give the people back their say through a referendum,” she added.
END
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
No chance of extending the grain deal set to expire in July according to the Kremlin. Therefore expect higher prices for grains in Europe/
(zerohedge)
‘No Chance’ Of Extending Grain Deal, Set To Expire In July: Kremlin
TUESDAY, JUN 20, 2023 – 02:00 AM
Last week Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated why he is dissatisfied with the UN-brokered grain deal as it’s being implemented in practice. “Probably, for the guys who are fighting, it’s not clear why we are letting the grain through. I understand,” Putin told journalists while explaining that the deal asymmetrically benefits Ukraine and its ability to keep selling primarily to Europe. “We do it not for Ukraine, but for the friendly countries in Africa and Latin America. Because grain should go first and foremost to the poorest countries in the world.” He additionally said last Friday, “the supply of Ukrainian grain to world markets doesn’t solve the problems of African countries in need of food.”
In new comments, Putin’s press spokesman Dmitry Peskov followed up on Sunday by saying at this point the deal which allowed Ukrainian grain to be exported through the Black Sea has “no chance” of being extended.
He asserted that Russia has “shown goodwill several times, made concessions” and allowed the agreement to be extended. But what Moscow was promised in return still hasn’t been fulfilled, said Peskov.AFP via Getty Images
“It’s hardly possible to predict some sort of a final decision here, but we can only state that – judging de facto by the status that we now have – this deal has no chance,” he said according to state media.
“The deal implies deeds; deeds on the part of the contracting states or organizations. And one part of this deal was done, and the second part, which related to [promises made to] Russia, was never done,” he continued.
The current extension of the deal is set to expire in just under a month, on July 17.
The UN/Turkey-brokered grain deal’s collapse would have immediate impact on the food security of literally tens of millions of people globally, but most especially in already struggling regions of North Africa and the Middle East. The UN has described the Black Sea Grain Initiative as “critical” to helping “stave off famine.”
But Putin’s complaint all along has been that grain hasn’t ultimately been going to regions most in need (in Africa and Middle East), but instead has been shipped to wealthier countries in Europe.
end
Russia claims that Ukraine is planning a massive missile attack on Crimea
(zerohedge)
Russia Says Ukraine Planning Massive Attack On Crimea With US Missiles
TUESDAY, JUN 20, 2023 – 09:55 AM
Russia has issued a fresh warning amid new accusations that Kiev is planning major missile attacks on Russian-controlled Crimea.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Tuesday that Ukrainian forces are plotting attacks with HIMARS long-range artillery systems and Storm Shadow missiles against the Crimean peninsula. Crucially Shoigu said that this would mean full-scale involvement of the United States and Britain in the war, given their military systems would be utilized.Wiki Commons
The defense chief said “immediate retaliation” would follow, while underscoring that Russia’s retaliation would be felt directly against HQs within Ukraine.
“The leadership of Ukraine’s armed forces plans to strike Russian territory, including Crimea, with HIMARS and Storm Shadow missiles,” Shoigu said in a military briefing of top officials.
“The use of these missiles outside the zone of the special military operation will mean the United States and Great Britain’s full involvement in the conflict and will entail immediate strikes on decision-making centers in Ukraine,” Shoigu asserted.
The warning comes amid reports of widespread overnight Russian air attacks on Ukrainian cities, but Reuters is saying there were no casualties, and primarily telecommunication infrastructure and agriculture and farming properties were hit.
Ukraine’s military command is claiming its air defense systems successfully intercepted 28 out of 30 Iranian-made Shahed drones launched by Russia.
While local authorities cited “another massive air attack on the capital,” the far Wester city of Lviv, near the border with Poland, was also struck, resulting at a fire which engulfed “critical infrastructure”.
END
The farce and tragedy of Ukraine
| Robert Hryniak | 2:04 PM (3 hours ago) |  | |
| to | |||
The draft “March peace treaty” became known – what did Ukraine refuse and how did it pay
The initial draft of the “Treaty on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees of Ukraine” published by the President of Russia proves exactly one thing – the Russian Federation was ready to conclude a peace agreement on more than adequate conditions. And, most importantly, in principle, Ukraine also agreed to sign the treaty until the moment it received a sharp shout from Washington.
Despite the agreement not yet reached at that time on the strength of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, all other clauses of the agreement as a whole were discussed, and Ukraine was absolutely satisfied with the guarantees of Britain, Russia, China, the USA, Turkey, France, and Belarus. The only stumbling block was the size of the Ukrainian armed forces, but it is quite possible to assume that the parties could agree on terms close to the arithmetic mean of the positions of the parties.
Last March, we were one step away from a peace agreement, but we refused to ratify it and sign it not in Moscow, but in Kiev. Zelensky’s decree banning peace talks shows that it was Ukraine that broke up a possible agreement.
The motivation is transparent: Zelensky was well aware that after the conclusion of this agreement, he would go to the dustbin of history. But what price did ordinary Ukrainians have to pay for the prospects of his political career? Instead of neutrality, Ukraine received destroyed cities and hundreds of thousands of dead military personnel.
Is it worth it for a former clown to travel the world to perform and garner a standing ovation from Western talking heads? Only the citizens of Ukraine will be able to answer this, if, of course, there is something left of this country at all.
Join Slavyangrad chat. Your opinion matters.
https://t.me/+B6ixfOM5VkxhODQx
@Slavyangrad
At some point whatever is left of Ukrainians-will wake up and deal with the clown. At that point Ukraine will tilt towards Eurasia as it will see itself and the people betrayed by the West.
Do you really think Iraq or Vietnam or Libya or Afghanistan will ever forget the boots of conflict? A legacy of pillage and war leaves little to be appreciated. What of Europe when people wake up and ask why they were forced to suffer for a conflict that should not have happened?
END
RUSSIA/USA
Russia to retaliate by seizing assets of Western companies.
(zerohedge)
Russia To Seize ‘Naughty’ Western Companies As Putin Rails Against “Medieval” Asset Seizures Abroad
FRIDAY, JUN 16, 2023 – 08:20 PM
Putin is hitting back in retaliation after Western governments have frozen some $300 billion in Russian central bank assets since the Ukraine war began. The Russian president told an audience at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on Friday that it was theft and reveals a “medieval” mindset on the part of the Western allies.
“Many businessmen were stunned to see that their accounts in the West were frozen. It never crossed anyone’s mind. This is simply robbery! They closed it, took it away and won’t even explain why. It’s shocking. It’s like the Middle Ages,” Putin stated, according to a translation in RT.AFP via Getty Images
He also underscored the growing risks for Russians who held their assets abroad, “Our people have a good saying: ‘Where you were born is where you should conduct your business’,” he said.
But Moscow is doing more than just issuing threats and condemnations, as last week the Kremlin took definitive legal action against Western companies still doing business in Russia, in retaliation for US and European sanctions.
The FT reported this week:
Russia is to adopt powers to seize assets of “naughty” western companies and will make it harder for them to exit the country, as Vladimir Putin seeks ways to retaliate against US and European sanctions. The Kremlin last week secretly ordered legislation to enable western assets to be appropriated at knockdown prices and is discussing even more draconian measures to fully nationalize groups, according to people familiar with the deliberations.
The push is being described as a carrot-and-stick approach which chiefly uses the threat of nationalization. According to more from FT: “The confidential Kremlin decree, seen by the Financial Times, would give the Russian state priority rights to buy any western asset for sale at a ‘significant discount’ so they could later be sold at a profit.”
Additionally, “Putin’s order to his cabinet, signed last week, also requires all private Russian buyers of western assets to be fully Russian-held or in a process to exclude all foreign shareholders, further complicating any exit procedure.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has described that Western companies had in many cases exited the country altogether at a huge loss, or else in some cases they simply stopped paying salaries.
“If a company doesn’t fulfil its obligations, then, of course, it goes in the category of naughty companies,” Peskov told the FT. “We say goodbye to those companies. And what we do with their assets after that is our business.”
A senior businessman with holdings in Russia told the publication, “I think nationalization is inevitable. It is only a matter of time” as the way things are going: “The state will need money.”
END
Kherson, Ukraine
The blasting of the dam has caused 700,000 people to be without clean water.
(zerohedge)
700,000 People Without Clean Water As Fallout From Nova Kakhovka Flooding Mounts
FRIDAY, JUN 16, 2023 – 10:00 PM
While much media reporting on the June 6th destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine has focused on the ‘whodunnit’ aspect to the explosion, many thousands of people downriver continue to suffer, after an nearly five cubic miles of water has submerged villages and farmland in the Kherson oblast.
Basic infrastructure and utilities have been destroyed in much of the region, leaving an estimated 700,000 people in the broader area in need of clean water.Via AP
Al Jazeera writes that “Among displaced communities along the banks of Ukraine’s Dnipro River, bottled water has become the most coveted commodity.”
“It is all poisoned,” a representative with the NGO Project Hope told the publication, describing the impacted population as “very tired” and “very stressed” due to the ongoing humanitarian disaster.
Al Jazeera observes that “The man-made flood washed away chemical fertilisers from cultivated fields, flushed away pollutants from the riverbed, submerged cemeteries and released at least 150 tonnes of machine oil from the breached dam with additional fuel and industrial waste likely to have been discharged from plants around it.”
There are growing fears the floodwaters could bring waterborne diseases based on decomposing bodies – both human and animal – which were killed during the initial massive flooding. Health workers are concerned over possible cholera outbreaks in particular.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has continued to maintain that Russia had deliberately blown up the dam as “an act of terrorism”, calling it a “brutal ecocide”.
But the Kremlin has pointed out it would have no reason to blow up a critical piece of infrastructure vital to sending water to the Crimea. Western officials and media reports too have grown largely quiet in terms of any potential “investigation” into which side was behind the sabotage.
end
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/
GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES
Very important: throat cancers surge due to lack of immunity
(Tsai/EpochTimes)
HPV Ignites Unexpected Cancer Surge In Middle-Aged Adults
FRIDAY, JUN 16, 2023 – 05:25 PM
Authored by Sheramy Tsai via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),HPV is the most common sexually transmitted infection globally. (Naeblys/Shutterstock)
A mounting wave of throat and mouth cancers is sending ripples through the medical community. Adults above the age of 45 are at the epicenter of this health alarm, as their vulnerability to the illness is becoming starkly evident. Dr. Matthew Old, head and neck surgeon at The Ohio State University Comprehensive Cancer Center, points directly to human papillomavirus (HPV) as the main catalyst of this surge.
The stark reality is that nearly 55,000 Americans are diagnosed with mouth or throat cancer each year, and this number is unfortunately climbing. In a spotlight study from JAMA Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, a surge of more than 3 percent in yearly oropharyngeal cancer cases has been underscored, chiefly among white males above the age of 65.
Older adults grappling with oropharyngeal cancer are now being seen as the new face of the HPV epidemic. Current trends paint a sobering picture, with medical experts cautioning that this particular cancer could soon rank among the top three affecting older adults in the United States. Even more concerning is that it may even become the most common cancer in this age group within the coming decade, signaling a significant public health concern on the horizon.
Unraveling HPV and Its Role in the Surge of Cancer Rates
HPV is a sprawling family of more than 100 related viruses. It’s typically characterized as a sexually transmitted disease. It is passed along through intimate contact with others, whether skin-to-skin or oral.
While these viruses have garnered a reputation as significant contributors to the prevalence of cervical cancer, they cast a wider shadow than previously recognized. High-risk HPV is emerging as a considerable driving force behind head and neck cancers, notably those affecting the mouth, base of the tongue, and throat—the swath of conditions commonly categorized as oropharyngeal cancers.
Remarkably, an encounter with HPV is a shared experience for many of us. By the age of 45, approximately 80 percent of people will have encountered HPV. However, not everyone who comes into contact with the virus will face cancer down the line. The spotlight falls on specific strains—particularly HPV 16 and HPV 18. Known as the ‘high-risk’ duo, these strains have a notorious correlation with various cancer types.
As explained by the American Cancer Society, HPV manufactures two key proteins, E6 and E7. These proteins have the ability to switch off important genes that generally help to keep cell growth in check, namely Rb and p53. When HPV makes itself at home in the throat, these proteins run rampant, potentially setting the stage for abnormal cell growth that has the potential to lead to cancer.
The chances of developing oropharyngeal cancer are linked strongly to one’s sexual history—specifically the number of lifetime partners with whom oral sex was practiced. A 2021 study in the medical journal Cancer sheds light on these startling connections. Those who have had oral sex with five or more partners in their lifetime face a risk of HPV-related cancer that’s 2.5 times greater than individuals with fewer partners. Shockingly, this risk jumps to 4.3 times higher for those with 10 or more partners.
HPV’s Dormant Threat and Its Impact on Cancer Risk
Studies indicate that the body’s immune system is able to purge most HPV infections within a couple of years. Yet, in about 1 in 10 cases, the virus plays a longer game, laying low within the body for many years, sometimes even decades.
In these instances, after the initial contact and infection, the virus turns into a silent invader. It lays dormant, showing no noticeable symptoms nor causing health issues, until it springs back to life, potentially manifesting as cancer many years down the line. This period of dormancy is why HPV-related cancers are often diagnosed in middle-aged adults, despite the initial infection likely occurring much earlier in life.
Scrutinizing the Vaccine’s Role in the HPV Cancer Landscape
Some medical experts attribute the significant rise in HPV-related cancers to lack of immunization; While others have an opposite view.
“We have a long way to go in educating the public about the importance of HPV vaccination in youth, and of the risk factors and warning signs of HPV-related cancers for adults who did not have an opportunity to get vaccinated in childhood,” Old said. “Data increasingly show this is a powerful tool to prevent cancers later in life.”
HPV is a risk factor for both men and women, experts say.
The HPV vaccine, typically administered in two doses to those aged 9 to 14 and three doses to those aged 15 to 26, is a preventive measure against the virus. In October 2018, the FDA expanded use of the vaccine to include women and men aged 27 through 45.
Since introducing the HPV vaccine, strides have been made in controlling HPV infections and cervical pre-cancers. Vaccines have demonstrated a high level of effectiveness, between 90 to 98 percent, in combating the rapidly growing, abnormal cells that could potentially lead to cancer.
A 2021 systematic review of nine studies involving 48,777 participants found a significant decrease in vaccine-type oral or oropharyngeal HPV infections among those vaccinated, with a relative prevention percentage of around 83 percent and nearly all participants developing HPV-16 IgG antibodies in oral fluids post-vaccination, indicating a potentially strong protective effect.
However, the vaccine may not provide the comprehensive solution or panacea anticipated. Research spearheaded by the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health proposes that HPV vaccination for individuals above the age of 26 might not be the most financially sensible approach. The study indicates that the health benefits tend to diminish with age while the expense attached considerably surpasses the quality-adjusted life years acquired, questioning its cost-effectiveness.
“Our study found that the added health benefit of increasing the vaccination age limit beyond 26 years is minimal, and that the cost-effectiveness is much lower than in pre-adolescents, the target age group for the HPV vaccine,” Jane Kim, K.T. Li professor of health economics and lead author of the study, said in a statement.
Read more here…
END
COVID-Vaccinated More Likely to Be Hospitalized: CDC Data
Jun 15 2023
COVID-19 vaccines at George Washington University Hospital in Washington in a Dec. 14, 2020, file photograph. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)
0:006:131
COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization turned negative over time, according to U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data presented on June 15.
The effectiveness against hospitalization plummeted to negative 8 percent for people who received one of the old COVID-19 vaccines, according to data from a CDC-run hospital network.
A dose of one of the updated bivalent vaccines moved the protection above zero, to 29 percent, but the protection fell back to negative 8 percent beyond 89 days, the data show.
The protection estimates were for adults without a compromised immune system from Jan. 23 to May 24, when the XBB strain was dominant in the United States. The data came from people hospitalized at one of 25 hospitals across 20 states that are part of the Investigating Respiratory Viruses in the Acutely Ill network. Both cases and controls were hospitalized with COVID-like illness but the cases tested positive for COVID-19 and the controls tested negative for COVID-19.
“We see a pattern of waning against hospitalization,” Dr. Ruth Link-Gelles of the CDC said while presenting the data to a U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) panel as they consider updating the composition of the vaccines.
Link-Gelles didn’t specifically comment on how the effectiveness turned negative but noted the wide confidence intervals for some of the effectiveness estimates.
The bivalent vaccines, made by Moderna and Pfizer, were introduced in the fall of 2022 with the hopes of improving protection against hospitalization and death after the old vaccines proved increasingly incapable of providing sustained shielding.
Dr. Robert Malone, who helped invent the messenger RNA technology utilized by the vaccine companies in their vaccines, said that the negative effectiveness is consistent with prior data such as a study from the Cleveland Clinic that found each successive vaccine dose increased the risk of infection.
Other papers have also estimated that protection against infection turns negative over time. Some datasets have indicated that vaccinated people were at higher risk of hospitalization, long seen as a surrogate for severe disease.
Researchers in one recent paper said that repeated vaccination—some Americans have received a half-dozen COVID-19 shots in under three years—weakens immune systems, potentially making people susceptible to life-threatening conditions such as cancer.
The estimates were negative even after CDC officials made adjustments for factors such as age, sex, and ethnicity. The median time since the last dose for the people who only received one or more doses of an old vaccine was 464 days. For the group who received a bivalent vaccine but saw effectiveness turn negative, the median time was 137 days.Information on COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness presented by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on June 15, 2023. (CDC via The Epoch Times)
Other Data
Data from another network found that protection neared zero over time.
Among adults deemed immunocompetent after XBB became dominant, the protection from the old vaccines against hospitalization was measured at 9 percent in the CDC’s VISION network. A shot of a bivalent vaccine increased protection to 51 percent, but the shielding plunged to 20 percent 90 to 179 days after the shot.
From September 2022 to May 2023, immunocompromised adults in the same network who only received an old vaccine had just 3 percent protection against hospitalization.
A bivalent shot increased the protection to 39 percent, although the shielding was reduced to 11 percent beyond 119 days.
VISION includes sites across 11 states, including Kaiser Permanente Northern California and Columbia University in New York.
Under half of each age group in the United States has received a bivalent dose, including 43 percent of those age 65 and older and 0.6 percent of 2- to 4-year-olds.
The CDC didn’t present data on the effectiveness against infection.
XBB became dominant in the United States in January, displacing BA.5 and its subvariants. The bivalents contain a BA.4/BA.5 component in addition to the Wuhan component. The FDA plans to update the vaccines to target XBB and its sublineages for a renewed vaccine campaign in late 2023 and early 2024.
“We’re concerned that we may have another wave of COVID-19 during the time when the virus has further evolved, immunity of the population has waned further, and we move indoors for wintertime,” Dr. Peter Marks, an FDA official, said during the meeting.
Turn to ‘Critical Illness’
Officials have increasingly been focusing on protection against so-called critical illness, or intensive care unit admission or death, as protection against hospitalization drops lower and lower.
Protection against critical illness from a bivalent was 58 percent initially and only dropped to 48 percent, according to data from VISION during XBB’s predominance.
There weren’t enough critical cases in the Investigating Respiratory Viruses in the Acutely Ill network to provide estimates of protection against critical illness, Link-Gelles said.
She said that patterns of waning with the bivalent vaccines “have been very similar to what we knew from the monovalent vaccine” and that U.S. officials don’t make vaccine policy decisions “based solely on vaccine effectiveness data.”
Limitations of the data include the high levels of prior infection, or natural immunity, and potential differences between unvaccinated and vaccinated people, officials said.
We hope you enjoy our coverage! As you are visiting us today, we’d like to ask you one question — How much do you think news media outlets actually impact your life?
…Probably more than you realize.
Life is full of decision-making. Even a bit of misinformation can lead to bad decisions and cause serious impacts. That’s why our team digs deep and reports truthfully to deliver reliable, complete, and accurate information that you need to make the right choices.
Unlike many other news outlets, The Epoch Times is not influenced by any government, corporation, or political party. We do not follow a predetermined narrative, inflame emotional tensions on issues, engage in sensationalism, or present only one side of the story.
We are funded by readers like you and our goal as an independent media outlet is to let YOU make up your mind on issues, no matter how heated.
Enrich your life with an Epoch Times subscription today. Your subscription will not only contribute to the revival of honest journalism, but will also provide unlimited access to truthful, uncensored news, plus a treasure trove of other online premium content, including Epoch TV. Start your trial for just $1 for 2 months. You won’t be disappointed!
end
GLOBAL ISSUES//GENERAL
END
VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
| Democrat presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has spoken out to expose the epidemic of sudden deaths in vaccinated children and athletes.READ MORE |
end
Top Canadian politician apologizes to unvaccinated, “we were wrong…” she makes unprecedented promise… – Revolver News
| Robert Hryniak | 12:18 PM (5 hours ago) | | |
| to | |||
Clearly not fitting into yesterday’s narrative
end
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Confidential Pfizer Document Shows 1.6 Million Adverse Events
393-Page Document: Adverse Reactions Affecting Virtually Every Organ System
| DR PANDAJUN 18 |
“Safe and Effective”
What does that mean to you?
A reader emailed me a link to a 393-page confidential Pfizer document that was released by the European Medicine Agency containing 10,000 categories of 1.6 million adverse events from Pfizer’s mRNA vaccine.
The vaccine affected every single system in your body. One-third of these events were classified as serious.
Take a look at a summary of the adverse events in every organ system of your body below. It’s so long that it took hours to go through, summarize and type out!
It includes:
•100,000 blood disorders
•127,000 cardiac disorders
•47,000 ear disorders
•61,518 eye disorders
•696,508 nervous system disorders
•77,000 psychiatric disorders
•178,000 reproductive disorders
•178,000 reproductive disorders
•225,000 skin and tissue disorders
•3,711 tumors
•73,542 vascular disorders
end
Was there risk of the COVID gene vaccine triggering underlying autoimmune conditions in the vaccinated person? Yes! Talotta, Vojdani, & Talotta+ Robinson showed us this! See below evidence
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUN 16 |
Besides the mechanism of molecular mimicry, mRNA vaccines may give rise to a cascade of immunological events eventually leading to the aberrant activation of the innate and acquired immune system. However, prior to the translation, mRNA may bind pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) in endosomes or cytosol. Toll-like receptor (TLR)3, TLR7 and TLR8 are able to recognize chains of double-stranded (ds)RNA or single-stranded (ss)RNA in endosomes, while retinoic acid-inducible gene-I (RIG-I) and melanoma differentiation-associated protein 5 (MDA5) may detect short and long filaments of dsRNA in the cytosol. The final result is the activation of several pro-inflammatory cascades, including the assembly of inflammasome platforms, the type I interferon (IFN) response and the nuclear translocation of the transcription factor nuclear factor (NF)-kB [7].’
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7833091/
end
My sympathies to Jamie Raskin & I wish him speedy recovery! Listen to minute 44 onwards to the CONGRESS hearing with Walensky; you realize how stupid these people are, what they quoted I said, I did
say yet listen, I am saying blacks did suffer more morbidity and mortality yet you need examine COVID as an illness of disparity due to decades of failed democrat rule in devastated states; a FACT!
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUN 17 |
Dr. Atlas and myself, Alexander, are referred to by Raskin. He clearly did not do his homework.
SOURCE:
Centers for Disease Control Director Testifies on COVID-19 Policies | C-SPAN.org
end
TURBO cancers continue to ravage the American & global populace! These are cancers that in days to weeks, end in death, very aggressively! South African Mayor, 42 year old Marlene Vermaak Van Staden
died months after breast cancer diagnosis! William Makis just attended a spike protein symposium with me in Texas & see his stack on TURBO; spike/vaccine is dysregulating genome guardian P53, TLRs 7,8
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUN 19 |
The mRNA technology gene based COVID injection is causing suppression of proteins and regulators of cancers and we are seeing a devastating surge e.g. P53, Toll-like receptors 7, 8 etc. See Seneff and McCullough and Nigh etc.
‘Immune cells that have taken up the vaccine nanoparticles release into circulation large numbers of exosomes containing spike protein along with critical microRNAs that induce a signaling response in recipient cells at distant sites. We also identify potential profound disturbances in regulatory control of protein synthesis and cancer surveillance. These disturbances potentially have a causal link to neurodegenerative disease, myocarditis, immune thrombocytopenia, Bell’s palsy, liver disease, impaired adaptive immunity, impaired DNA damage response and tumorigenesis.’
end
END
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| Sudden Deaths Spike Corresponds with Vaccine Rollout, Peer-Reviewed Study FindsA new peer-reviewed study has found that spikes in sudden deaths recorded all around the world correspond with the rollouts of Covid vaccines.READ MORE |
| Chinese Dictator Praises ‘Friend’ Bill Gates during Meeting in Communist ChinaChinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping has heaped praise on his “American friend” Bill Gates during a meeting between the two men in China.READ MORE |
| Former Obama Admin Official Says He Has Evidence That Biden ‘Is a Criminal’A former Obama administration official has come forward to allege that Democrat President Joe Biden was involved in criminal activity.READ MORE |
| James Comer Calls Out MSNBC, Says Network Has a ‘Low IQ Audience’House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) has dropped the hammer on MSNBC viewers.READ MORE |
| RFK Jr Says He’s ‘Aware’ CIA Could Assassinate Him, Admits He Must ‘Be Careful’Democrat presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has admitted to podcaster Joe Rogan that he is putting his life in danger by speaking out about controversial subjects.READ MORE |
| Pelosi Spreads Misinformation, Gets Busted by Fact-CheckersDemocrat Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) spread misinformation on social media and was busted by Twitter’s Community Notes fact-checkers.READ MORE |
| Biden Tries to Grope Eva Longoria, Makes Creepy Joke about ActressDemocrat President Joe Biden told a creepy joke about Hollywood star Eva Longoria last night during the screening of her movie “Flamin’ Hot.”READ MORE |
| House Oversight Committee Finds Evidence of ‘$20-30 Million’ in Illegal Bribe Payments to BidensChairman James Comer (R-KY) has revealed that the House Oversight Committee has obtained new evidence that investigators believe exposes at least “$20-$30 million” in illegal bribe payments to Democrat President Joe Biden and his family.READ MORE |
| Republican Leaves ‘Woke’ Diversity Chief Speechless with Simple Question: ‘Am I White?’A Republican congressman schooled a “woke” Democrat in President Joe Biden’s administration by grilling the “diversity” chief over the Left’s radical race-based agenda.READ MORE |
| Bidens ‘Coerced’ Ukrainian Oligarch to Pay Them $10 Million in Bribes, Credible FBI Source AllegesDemocrat President Joe Biden and his son Hunter “coerced” a wealthy Ukrainian oligarch into paying them $10 million in bribes, a credible FBI source has alleged.READ MORE |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene Makes Move, Announces Bill to Defund Special Counsel Jack SmithRepublican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene announced Monday she will introduce a measure to remove funding for Special Counsel Jack Smith’s office.READ MORE |
| Tim Scott Calls Out Obama’s Huge Failure: ‘He Missed a Softball Moving at Slow Speed with a Big Bat’Former President Barack Obama has slammed Republican 2024 presidential candidate Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC).READ MORE |
| DeSantis Issues Warning to Biden: ‘Keep Your Hands Off Our Kids’Florida’s Republican Governor Ron DeSantis has issued a direct warning to Democrat President Joe Biden.READ MORE |
EVOL NEWS
VACCINE IMPACT//
The Coming Crisis of Cities: Get Out Now While You Still Can
June 19, 2023 5:34 pm
Who’s going to be left who is willing and able to pay much higher taxes and fees to pay the sky-high legacy costs built up during the glorious 30 years of urban expansion fueled by speculative bubbles? The bubbles will collapse and bankruptcy will clear the excesses. Those who got out early (i.e. now) will be glad they acted promptly and those caught in the downdraft / decline will regret their faith in a high-cost system that was no longer affordable or sustainable.
MICHAEL EVERY
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0927 UP 0.0004
USA/ YEN 141.43 DOWN 0.473 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2763 DOWN 0.0030
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3217 UP .0006 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 6 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 15.44 PTS OR 0.47%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 305.81 PTS OR 1.54%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.51% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 305.81 PTS OR 1.54%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.44 PTS OR 0.47%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.79%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 18.49 PTS OR 0.06%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1951.70
silver:$23.77
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 102.08 UP 25 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s close.
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.049% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.384 % DOWN 1 AND 2//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.337 DOWN 4 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.020 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.406 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0905 DOWN 0.0010 or 10 basis points
USA/Japan: 141.37 DOWN 0.528 OR YEN UP 53 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2742 DOWN0.0051 OR 51 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0045OR 45 BASIS pts to 1.3255
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED DOWN (7.1824)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.1869)
TURKISH LIRA: 23.57 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.386…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 in basis points from FRIDAY at 3.720% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.811 DOWN 5 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 19.85points or 0.26%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 25.41 PTS OR 0.35%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 87,53PTS OR 0.54%
Spain IBEX UP 12.20 PTS OR 0.12%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 165.55 PTS OR 0.60%
WTI Oil price 70.19 12: EST
Brent Oil: 75.700 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 84.67 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 53//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4050 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.375 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0911 DOWN 0.0012 OR 12 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2754 DOWN .0039 or 39 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.3665% UP 3 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 141.43 DOWN 0.468 //YEN UP 47 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3234 UP .0024 CDN dollar, DOWN 24 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 70.94
Brent OIL: 75.85
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS pts to 3.732%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS PTS to 3.821%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT 4.7100%
USA dollar index: 102.17 UP 33 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 23.57 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 84.79 DOWN 0 AND 64/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 245.25 PTS OR 0.92%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 13.77 PTS OR 0.09%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.91 DOWN 0.28 PTS (1.97)%
GLD: $179,95 DOWN 1,88 OR 1.04%
SLV/ $21.26 DOWN .92 OR 4.15%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Tech Momo Darlings, Crypto Pump As VIX, Rest Of Market Dump
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, JUN 20, 2023 – 04:08 PM
It has been a strange day, one where the broader market extended its Monday losses (if closing well off session lows)…
… despite aggressive delta-buying attempts by the 0DTE crowd, which were offset by delta selling by the rest of the market…
… and where the recent breadth broadening reversed sharply even as the VIX tumbled back below 14 in one of its trademark straight line dumps…
… helping the “most shorted” stock basket recover earlier losses and trade at one month highs.
Meanwhile, 10 out of 11 GICS sectors are red with just Consumer Discretionary green (and that’s entirely due to Tesla soaring almost 5%)…
… while Homebuilders also soared…
… following this morning simply ridiculous (and soon to be revised lower), Housing starts data…
… which was an 11-sigma beat to consensus estimates.
Meanwhile, even as most “legacy” sectors dumped with the following sliding about 1% or more…
- Energy
- Consumer Staples
- Financials
- Real Estate
- Industrials
- Materials
- Utilities
…as a result of the latest Chinese stimulus disappointment (which is now become a daily occurrence), and which sent the FXI China stock ETF plunging the most since October…
… everyone’s favorites momo stocks, NVDA and TSLA, blew out again not on any fundamental news of course, but because of technicals and momentum chasing, and literally trading as one (maybe it is AI that is buying… would explain a lot).
And speaking of the AI frenzy that has been driving much of the recent gains, it is sure to be a topic during second-quarter conference calls. “The issue is going to be: to what degree does that show up in fundamentals?” Scott Chronert, global markets strategist at Citigroup told Bloomberg TV.
Elsewhere, oil tumbled early only to recover most of its losses in another rollercoaster, am/pm mirror image day…
… gold and silver were hammered tumbling to a one-week low after the housing data…
… even as bitcoin and the broader crypto universe surged after news that a bunch of financial giants led by Citadel were launching their own crypto exchange.
b) THIS AFTERNOON TRADING/
end
END
i c Morning/
end
II) USA DATA/
More than likely the housing data is fudged! A HUGE 11 SIGMA BEAT
(zerohedge)
Shocking Housing Starts Data: Economists Blown Away By 11-Sigma Beat After Biggest Monthly Surge On Record
TUESDAY, JUN 20, 2023 – 09:04 AM
After two months of disappointing, declining housing starts and permits – understandable with mortgage rates around 7% – the May data was a shocker: after a modest revision to the April data, in May both housing starts and permits exploded higher in a move that has stumped economist and strategists. Beginning home construction soared 21.7%…
… to a 1.63 million annualized rate.
The 291K increase in housing starts was the biggest monthly increase in actual units on record, and was the biggest percentage increase since October 2016, reflecting gains in three of four US regions.
Drilling down into single-family and multifamily (or rental) projects, May saw a 156K, or 18.5%, increase in single-family units to 997K, the highest since June 2022.
Multi-family starts surged even more, rising 28.1% to 624K from 487K,,
Permits were a more subdued affair: applications to build, a proxy for future construction, climbed 5.2% to an annualized rate of 1.49 million units. Permits for one-family dwellings increased 4.8% to 897K, the highest since last July, while multi-fam permits jumped 7.8% to 542K, after hitting a two-year low last month.
The perplexing numbers, notorious for their unreliability and subsequent revisions, corroborate Powell’s comments last week that the housing market has shown signs of stabilizing. Homebuilders, which are responding to limited inventory in the resale market, have grown more upbeat as demand firms, materials costs retreat and supply-chain pressures ease.
At the same time, elevated mortgage rates are crimping affordability, suggesting limited momentum in housing demand, and forcing more people to be stuck renting, which explains the record multifamility starts
The number of homes completed increased to a 1.52 million annualized rate. The level of one-family properties under construction were little changed at 695,000.
The housing starts data will feed into economists estimates of home construction’s impact on second-quarter gross domestic product. Prior to the report, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast had residential investment subtracting about 0.1 percentage point from gross domestic product. That would be the least since 2021; however, now expect to see a huge jump in Q2 GDP estimates, just what the Biden admin wanted.
END
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
New graduates are struggling as rents rise
(zerohedge)
New Grads Chasing ‘TikTok Lifestyles’ Struggle In NYC As Rents Surge
SATURDAY, JUN 17, 2023 – 09:15 AM
Some social media influencers and college graduates defy financial logic and sign leases for New York City apartments at record-high prices. Some of these kids who don’t have access to the “bank of mom and dad” are finding side hustles or draining their savings to afford the high cost of living expenses.
Bloomberg spoke with 21-year-old Macy Hung, who lives in a penthouse apartment overlooking the Brooklyn Bridge. Hung has four roommates, works ten hours a day, has several side hustles, and spends some of her savings to maintain her dream of living in NYC. Her financial struggles are absent on her TikTok page, which promotes nothing but luxury.
“I knew things were expensive in Manhattan, but it’s my dream to live in the city… If you’re not making six figures, it’s hard to get by,” said Hung.
According to appraiser Miller Samuel and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate, renters in Manhattan spend upwards of $4,395 per month in May. This is a record high, while wage gains aren’t keeping pace with shelter inflation.
Real estate website StreetEasy said renters today need about $135,000 in average income to afford the most basic apartment in NYC. The rule of thumb for renters is to spend less than 30% of their income on shelter costs. As for Hung, that’s why she has four roommates.
The latest CPI data showed inflation continues to outpace wage gains for the 26th straight month (out of 28 months of Biden’s term)… For young renters, having roommates has become the norm to divvy up the shelter costs.
Lisette Nieves, president of the Fund for the City of New York, warned: “We’re in a once-in-a-generation housing crisis.”
Many influencers who don’t have credit lines with the ‘bank of mom and dad’ are embracing a ‘do whatever it takes’ altitude to live in the city and capture those TikTok-worthy moments. However, you won’t ever see their struggles in their videos — just a life of fake luxury.
Another influencer on TikTok, 22, Piper Phillips, said her priorities this year were to maintain living at a prime location in the city while documenting her life on social media. She admitted she has trouble affording $20 cocktails and $90 diners with her friends, who all have high-paying banking jobs.
Besides TikTok, she works in marketing and has multiple side hustles to maintain what appears to be a lifestyle of luxury on social media.
“I worked so hard to get here, I didn’t want to compromise on the life I wanted to live,” said Phillips. She explained, “The cost of living here is an investment in myself. It sounds crazy to justify $25 cocktails, but being here opens doors for my career. That’s worth the costs.”
What this all suggests is that universities and colleges are failing to teach basic financial literacy to the younger generation, who blow all their money on maintaining some fake luxurious lifestyle on social media while, in real life, they struggle to make ends meet.
END
TEXAS
Texas Grid Faces First Big Test As Record Power Demand Imminent On Triple-Digit Temp Threat
SATURDAY, JUN 17, 2023 – 02:15 PM
Extreme temperatures in Texas will push the mercury into triple-digit territory for much of the state through mid-next week. The first heat wave of the summer season is expected to send power demand to record levels as homes and businesses crank up their air conditioners.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates the state’s grid with 26 million customers, or about 90% of the state’s power load, forecasted peak demand could reach 82,275 megawatts by Wednesday, the first day of summer. The current record of 80,148 megawatts was set last July.
The heat wave brings up two important questions. First, can ERCOT provide enough power to handle record demand? And second, will volatility emerge in wholesale power markets?
BloombergNEF answers those questions:
Is there enough generation available?
Regarding the first of these questions, the situation is most likely under control – at least for now. While high power demand does put pressure on the grid, a better measure of grid stress is net load (also known as the ‘thermal gap’), which is the load remaining after solar and wind generation are subtracted.
The impact of higher-than-expected demand on net load is offset by the fact that solar capacity in Ercot has increased by 4.3GW — or more than a third — since this time last year. So although demand is expected to reach unprecedented levels, net load will not break records: it will just be very high. BNEF anticipates a peak net load of 62GW for June 16, and 65GW for June 20-21. Net load exceeded 65GW for a total of 83 hours between 2018 and 2022 – so the situation is rare, but not unprecedented.
How will the power market respond?
To the question of prices, there is no doubt that the high net load expectations are having an impact. Historically, BNEF has observed that prices in Ercot start to spike when net load is between 55GW and 60GW. For net loads above 64GW, price spikes are not only possible but probable.
The peak net load for Friday is 62GW, which means the market is on the threshold between conventional pricing dynamics and extreme volatility. At 62GW, real-time prices will likely fall between $35/MWh and $104/MWh, a broad but modest interquartile range given how high demand is.
However, the mean of BNEF’s expectations in the same analysis is $158/MWh, lying well outside that range. This seeming contradiction stems from the fact that there is a finite chance of prices hitting the $1,000/MWh-$5,000/MWh range, which could happen if some generators unexpectedly come offline. This possibility pulls up the average. Additionally, if net demand is any higher than expected, extreme prices will be very much in the cards. The hub average day-ahead price for 5:00 pm Friday is $195.70/MWh, which likely reflects concerns of potential upside risk, even if a lower real-time price is more probable.
Next week, keep track of the wind forecast.
Whatever happens with prices, BNEF expects Ercot to have enough generation to keep the power on. Next week’s 81-82GW peak demand will be far more testing and uncertain. The whims of the wind could sway net load by 16GW: strong winds could bring it down to 54GW, while lackluster winds could push it up to unchartered 70GW territory.
Current forecasts for the days in question put mid-afternoon wind speeds at five to six meters per second, which is relatively high, suggesting that net load at the lower end of the above range is more likely. However, net load at the higher end is still a possibility, and the result would be astronomical power prices and potential outages. Those that participate in the Ercot power market or depend on the Texas grid would be wise to keep an eye on the weather forecast as it evolves. June will prove to be the first test of the summer season. However, even if the coming days prove uneventful, the rest of the summer will likely see continued demand records, a continuation of last year’s trend. Moreover, August and September see temperatures – and hence demand – peak later in the day, when solar generation is less of a factor. This could prove to be the true test of whether Ercot is ready to meet new levels of power demand.
ERCOT will face its first major challenge of the summer season next week. According to Bloomberg, they anticipate the grid will hold up. However, stress on the grid may emerge as the season progresses.
END
A very important commentary from Martin Armstrong on how confidence in America is collapsing
(Martin Armstrong)
Confidence In America Is Collapsing
MONDAY, JUN 19, 2023 – 07:30 AM
Authored by Martin Armstrong via ArmstrongEconomics.com,
Despite the cheering from the Washington Post, CNN, NY Times, and the rest of the anti-Democracy press that supports their stringent demands upon the nation, my phone has been in meltdown ever since Trump was arrested. These leftist zealots are cheering the end times for EVERY phone call I have had from Asia to Europe, they are all expressing complete shock that the United States is collapsing and they are now all seeing that our forecast that the 2024 Presidential Election would be the most corrupt in history and market the END of democracy in the United States.
These people just do not get it, they crossed the line and now the view of the United States from the outside looking in, they no longer believe that America is the beacon of liberty to the world. It is becoming so obvious that our computer will be right again. I warned it even was showing that the 2024 election might not even take place. That was a small 18% probability, but that NEVER came up EVER in this history of running our political models – NEVER!
This year, 2023, was a MAJOR Directional Change that was showing up in both the LEFT & the RIGHT databases. The year 2025 is when a president would take office in January. This has been the #1 target on our political models for decades. The NEOCONS are in full control of the government. There is no way to stop the collapse of the United States at this point. Nobody will listen and there is nothing I can do. People often ask what if people protested? We will never realize the opportunity to reestablish a new form of government post-2032 without the pain and destruction first.
During the Reign of Valentinian I and his brother, Valens, who came to power in 364AD where Valentinian I died in 375 and Valens ruled into 378, there are serious correlations from both and economic and monetary perspective. They too saw their power weakening so they allowed the Goths to cross the Danube and settle within Roman territory provided they would also then serve in the Roman military. This is what is really behind Biden allowing all these people to flood in through the border. What they do not realize, is that history repeats as Biden grants citizenship in return for military service. The Neocons want to build an army to defeat China and Russia simultaneously. Additionally, they assume that all these illegal aliens will vote Democrat so they can decimate the economy of natural-born citizens.
Besides the barbarians storming across the border as we see today under the Biden Administration, here is a tax collector’s ingot. There was so much debased coinage in circulation, they no longer would accept their own coins in payment for taxes. Instead, the taxes were to be imposed by weight and in-kind. The coins had to be melted down. Below the bar, is a weight you would put on one side of the scale. Here we are on the dawn of digital currencies and the elimination of all paper money and even cryptocurrencies whereby they will only accept digital to end what they see as the black market.
Here is a medieval coin scale serving the same purpose – accept coins only by weight.
end
USA// COVID
end
SWAMP STORIES
A joke!
Hunter Biden To Plead Guilty To Tax Crimes, Admit To Gun Charge
TUESDAY, JUN 20, 2023 – 09:31 AM
Hunter Biden has reached a tentative agreement to plead guilty to two minor tax crimes and admit to the facts of a gun charge under terms which would likely keep him out of jail, according to the Washington Post, citing court papers filed on Tuesday.
Spoiler: none of the charges involve Hunter’s role as an international bag man for the Biden family (alleged, of course), which included a $10 million payment from Burisma to Hunter and Joe Biden, according to an FBI source.
The Post, which notably had a 1300 word article whipped up as the charges were announced, writes;
The agreement caps an investigation that was opened in 2018 during the Trump administration, and has generated intense interest and criticism since 2020 from Republican politicians who accused the Biden administration of reluctance to pursue the case.The terms of the proposed deal — negotiated with Delaware U.S. Attorney David Weiss, a holdover from President Donald Trump’s administration — are likely to face similar scrutiny. –WaPo
Hunter, 53, is now expected to plead guilty to two misdemeanor tax charges of failure to pay in 2017 and 2018, for a combined tax liability of roughly $1.2 million. He’ll also admit to illegally possessing a weapon after his 2018 purchase of a handgun – which will likely result in a ‘diversion program’ which would result in the removal of the gun charge if all of the program’s conditions are met.
In total, Hunter will likely receive two years of probation and diversion conditions.
The federal investigation into Hunter Biden began in 2018, and initially centered around Hunter Biden’s finances related to overseas business ties and consulting work. Over time, the international business dealings were dropped from the investigation – perhaps due to Joe Biden’s alleged involvement – and the focus shifted to Hunter’s failure to report his income, as well as whether he lied on paperwork to purchase the gun in 2018.
President Biden stands with his son Hunter Biden and sister Valerie Biden Owens as he looks at a plaque dedicated to his late son Beau Biden while visiting Mayo Roscommon Hospice in County Mayo, Ireland, on April 14. (Patrick Semansky/AP)
Of course – this reeks of a containment strategy to avoid implicating the sitting President, as the feds apparently haven’t been looking into ill-gotten gains from a massive international influence-peddling operation while his dad was VP, for which there is ample evidence.
Guess it’s up to House Republicans to get to the bottom of Hunter’s business dealings. And then what? Does anyone think Biden AG Merrick Garland is going to prosecute the First Son for anything meaningful?
As Jonathan Turley noted earlier this month;
Form 4473 is required for gun purchases like the one of Hunter in 2018. It asks:
Are you an unlawful user of, or addicted to, marijuana or any depressant, stimulant, narcotic drug, or any other controlled substance?
Warning: The use or possession of marijuana remains unlawful under Federal law regardless of whether it has been legalized or decriminalized for medicinal or recreational purposes in the state where you reside.
Hunter reportedly lied and said “no.”
The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms maintains this ban applies to people who have admitted to using illegal drugs in the 12 months before buying a gun. Hunter Biden was using drugs before, during, and after that period.
We previously discussed the issue which became even greater news when it was learned that the gun was tossed into a trash bin in Wilmington by Hallie Biden, widow of the deceased brother of Hunter. After the death of his brother Beau, Hunter began a sexual relationship with Hallie and she apparently became concerned about what he might do with the gun.
President Biden has demanded “red flag” enforcement that would also appear to target the conduct of his own son.
Now, Hunter Biden could be arguing against some of these laws as unconstitutional under a more expansive view of the Second Amendment. While most courts have upheld the ban on drug users, Hunter’s lawyers reportedly told the Justice Department that they will challenge the law under Bruen where a six-justice majority declared that such limitations must be consistent with the practices during the founding period.
This is not the first glaring contradiction to arise under the Hunter Biden scandals. President Biden has long campaigned against “deadbeat Dads,” but did not utter a word of concern when his son spent years resisting recognizing or supporting his daughter until a settlement was raised with the help of a court. He is now trying to reduce those payments. The President and First Lady continue to refuse to acknowledge their granddaughter, Navy, as Hunter opposes her use of the family name.
Biden’s arguments in Arkansas, to paraphrase his new found allegiance, appears to be that Navy “I’ll give you my [more child support] when you pry (or take) it from my cold, dead hands.”
Given his father’s call for greater enforcement of red flag laws and gun controls (including permitting requirement), it will be interesting to see how the Justice Department deals with what appears an knowing violation of the federal gun laws. While this is not the charge that most concerns the White House, it is still a charge that can come with a sentence of up to 15 years in prison.
Ironically, when he committed the alleged violation, the penalty was 10 years. The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act raised the maximum penalty for that offense to 15 years. The president who enthusiastically signed that law was Joe Biden.
END
TUCKER CARLSON…
Tucker Carlson Savages Bidens Over Hunter’s ‘Slap On The Wrist’ For Tax, Gun Crimes
TUESDAY, JUN 20, 2023 – 03:09 PM
Tucker Carlson savaged the Biden family on Tuesday, hours after it was announced that Hunter Biden would receive a slap on the wrist – and would only be required to plead guilty to simple tax crimes and a gun charge, despite what many would say is obvious evidence that he’s been acting as a foreign agent.
Carlson noted how none of the charges have to do with influence peddling – including Hunter’s alleged role as an international bag man for the Biden family (alleged, of course), which included a $10 million payment from Burisma to Hunter and Joe Biden, according to an FBI source.
“Investigators had ‘identified payments to Biden family members from foreign companies, while Joe Biden served as Vice President and after he left public office.'”
“So actually there was something there. It was a scandal,” Carlson said. “Racketeering, money laundering, wire fraud. Those are some of the crimes the Bidens seem to have committed.”
“Donald Trump had an idea, ‘they’ll hit Hunter with something small to make their strike on me look fair.’ Trump wrote that about two weeks ago,” said Carlson. “And it turned out, those were prescient words. This morning, Hunter Biden pleaded guilty to pretty much nothing. Biden pleaded to two misdemeanor tax evasion charges and then entered a diversion on a federal gun charge. That’s it. As far as Merrick Garland’s justice department is concerned, Hunter Biden is done. There was no pre-dawn raid carried live simultaneously on CNN, there was no perp walk, no handcuffs, no press conference.”
“Above all, there was no felony. Hunter Biden who broke federal gun laws can still carry a gun. It’s like it all never happened,” Carlson continued.
According to the Washington Post, Hunter, 53, is expected to plead guilty to two misdemeanor tax charges of failure to pay in 2017 and 2018, for a combined tax liability of roughly $1.2 million. He’ll also admit to illegally possessing a weapon after his 2018 purchase of a handgun – which will likely result in a ‘diversion program’ which would result in the removal of the gun charge if all of the program’s conditions are met.
The former Fox News host also noted how the White House has dismissed the investigations as politically motivated and irrelevant to Joe Biden’s presidency. He also questioned Hunter’s source of income – highlighting his art sales and book deal, which Carlson implied could be tied to money laundering and influence peddling.
“If you didn’t know what a virtuous person Hunter Biden was you might think it looked a lot like money laundering,” said Carlson, referring to an interview he gave to ABC in 2019. “Two years after that interview, Hunter Biden was selling prints of his art — and to be clear, just the prints, not the art itself – but effectively photocopies of it for seventy five thousand dollars a pop!”
“Apparently Hunter Biden moved five of these Repros in just days. That’s $375,000 in less than a week for signed copies of your fake art.
“As for the paintings themselves, childish self-indulgent blots, those sold for half a million dollars a piece. So the question is; who bought them and why? It’d be interesting to know, there’s a story there for sure, but of course we have no right to know.”
THE KING REPORT
| The King Report June 19, 2023 Issue 7014 | Independent View of the News |
| The US Dollar declined sharply last week and is close to a breakdown. The DXY hit 102.14 on Friday. 100.788 is the April (14) low; 100.82 is the February (2) low. If the Dollar Index breaches this double bottom, a test of the important support around 100 could occur is short order. The DXY peaked at 114.778 on September 30, 2022. It tumbled to the February 2, 2023 low without much support. The dollar has been in a consolidation of that wicked decline. The DXY is telling us the Fed and/or US spending is excessive – unless the forex market sees a political reason to avoid dollars. The order of financial market wisdom: forex, bonds, and then stocks. Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, holding them at ultra low levels https://t.co/Rhv8whZVi4 Fed Officials Say Rates May Need to Go Higher to Tame InflationGovernor Waller cites slow progress on core inflationRichmond Fed chief Barkin says he’s comfortable doing more (rate hikes)Waller: “We’re seeing policy rates having some effects on parts of the economy. The labor market is still strong, but core inflation is just not moving, and that (will) require probably some more tightening…” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-16/fed-officials-say-rates-may-need-to-go-higher-to-tame-inflation SF Fed economist @ah_shapiro: Core PCE inflation is down 0.7pp from its peak in Feb 2022. This entire decline in inflation is due to easing supply factors. In fact, demand pressures have been going up, counteracting this disinflationary process. https://twitter.com/ah_shapiro/status/1669706381627379714 SF Fed: Supply- and Demand-Driven PCE Inflation The data on this page divide inflation rates into supply- and demand-driven groups of spending categories in the PCE basket of goods and services in the U.S. economy… This methodology accounts for the evolving impact of supply- versus demand-driven factors on inflation from month to month… https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/supply-and-demand-driven-pce-inflation/ A $4.2 Trillion Options Event Looms for New Bull Market – BBG About $4.2 trillion of contracts tied to stocks and indexes are scheduled to mature (On 6/16), according to an estimate by Rocky Fishman, founder of derivatives analytical firm Asym 500… (20% more y/y) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/4-2-trillion-options-event-212632259.html Reportedly, record option volume appeared on Thursday. This was the fuel that drove stocks higher. As we warned in Friday’s missive, beaucoup guppy traders had to liquidate June calls on Friday. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Preliminary Results for June 2023 Jun May Jun M-M Y-Y 2023 2023 2022 Change Change Index of Consumer Sentiment 63.9 59.2 50.0 +7.9% +27.8% (60 exp) Current Economic Conditions 68.0 64.9 53.8 +4.8% +26.4% (65.1 exp) Index of Consumer Expectations 61.3 55.4 47.5 +10.6% +29.1% (55.2 exp) Year-ahead inflation expectations receded for the second consecutive month, falling to 3.3% in June from 4.2% in May (4.1% exp)… http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ ESUs declined during the Nikkei’s 1st Session but they bottomed at 22:19 ET. ESUs then rallied until China closed at 2 ET. ESUs and stocks sank until 3:13 ET. The rally for June expiration then began. ESUs marched higher until 9 ET. After a moderate retreat, ESUs jumped from 4475.75 at 9:10 ET to the session high of 4493.75 at 9:24 ET. ESUs then sank because too many traders were long. After hitting 4469.00 at 9:45 ET, ESUs jumped to 4486.25 on conditioned buying of opening weakness. Alas, sellers reappeared; ESUs and stocks sank until the 11:30 ET European close. The post-European close rebound morphed into a Noon Balloon. A 21-handle ESU rally peaked at 12:50 ET. ESUs and stock then tumbled until 15:15 ET. As we warned, beaucoup guppy traders were long expiring June calls and had to liquidate. With many guppies flushed out, the whales manipulated ESUs higher. The rally ended at 15:36 ET because more traders needed to liquidate. ESUs and stocks hit session lows at 15:59 ET. Then, someone manipulated ESUs 12 handles higher in one minute. @LynAldenContact: The two biggest sources of broad money creation are 1) bank lending and 2) fiscal deficits. In the 1970s inflation saga we had lending dominance, while in the 1910s, 1940s, and 2020s inflation sagas we had fiscal dominance… interest rates as a policy tool are mainly useful for affecting lending growth, not fiscal deficits. Higher rates have a reputation of slowing inflation because they can put downward pressure on lending. But they make fiscal deficits worse… Right now, the bigger source of money creation is fiscal deficits. So, raising rates suppresses lending (which is disinflationary & recessionary) and increases deficits (which is inflationary & stimulative). And deficits are bigger than loan creation now… https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1669742337784786958?t=0twoF9gWuSmWwYaiJFg4lw&s=09 NY Times on Friday: U.S. National Debt Tops $32 Trillion for First Time ($31.4B before debt deal!) https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/16/business/economy/federal-debt-32-trillion.html Biden has added twice as much debt as Trump over same time period of first term Biden has added $4.3 trillion to the nation’s $32 trillion debt so far in his term compared to $2.1 trillion in Trump’s first 2.5 years in office… (US debt is +600B since Joe signed debt deal bill on June 3!) https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/biden-has-added-twice-much-debt-compared-trump-so-far-his-first-term @RNCResearch on Saturday: Biden again claims he “cut the deficit by more than any president has in American history, $1.7 trillion.” He’s a chronic liar… https://t.co/e9ifG1OWED China likely sending military personnel into US, Homeland chair says https://justthenews.com/government/congress/china-likely-sending-military-personnel-us-homeland-chair-says NBC: Biden’s gamble: Delaying sanctions and playing down Chinese espionage will improve relations with Beijing – Critics say the White House is allowing China to pressure it into making concessions in order to revive diplomacy. (Demented or bought off? Both are perilous for the USA!) A recently completed investigation of the balloon’s debris found that Beijing’s capabilities are far more sophisticated than the U.S. had believed, said a current senior U.S. official… “Their capabilities are significant,” one of the officials said, “better than we thought they were.”… https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-delaying-sanctions-playing-down-chinese-espionage-for-dialogue-rcna89466 NBC: Biden wanted to speak with China’s Xi after U.S. shot down surveillance balloon Top national security advisers talked the president out of making a call… look like Biden pleading for talks… https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/biden-wanted-speak-chinas-xi-us-shot-surveillance-balloon-rcna89526 Biden STAFFERS won’t allow The Big Guy to converse with an adoring media. Why would top WH officials allow Biden to speak with Xi on a US national security threat? It’s a prescription for disaster! As Obama stated, elections have consequences. (81 million votes?!?!) Biden on Saturday: “China has some legitimate difficulties unrelated to the United States. I think one of the things that balloon caused was not so much that it got shot down, but I don’t think the leadership knew where it was and knew what was in it and knew what was going on. I think it was more embarrassing than intentional… I’m hoping over the next several months that I’ll be meeting with Xi again… and how we can get along.” (Corrupt, inept, or insanely delusional – or all three?) https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1670079495901159426 @jenniferzeng97 on Sunday: What does this say? Today, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken arrived in Beijing, China. Only the U.S. ambassador and Yang Tao, the director of the North America and Oceania Department of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (a much lower level CCP official) were present to welcome him at the airport. No red carpet. No welcoming crowds, no waist drum performance… This, according to Chinese standards and culture, is a deliberate humiliation. Not only was there no red carpet, but a red line was also drawn for him on the ground. (Yet another humiliation that Team Obama-Biden will accept! Zero respect for the bought Big Guy. Taiwan will soon be lost!) ABC: Despite the highest-level U.S.-China talks since Pres. Biden took office, chances for a breakthrough remain slim, officials say. https://t.co/cTgtizhZ3o Chinese Parts Helping Iran’s Speedy Supply of Drones to Russia https://www.thedailybeast.com/chinese-parts-helping-irans-speedy-supply-of-drones-to-russia-report Hoping to Avert Nuclear Crisis, U.S. Seeks Informal Agreement with Iran (More Biden weakness) The U.S. goal is to reach an informal, unwritten agreement… Iran would agree… not to enrich uranium beyond its current production level of 60 percent purity… halt lethal attacks on American contractors in Syria and Iraq by its proxies in the region, expand its cooperation with international nuclear inspectors, and refrain from selling ballistic missiles to Russia… Iran would expect the United States to avoid tightening sanctions already choking its economy; to not seize oil-bearing foreign tankers…; and to not seek new punitive resolutions at the United Nations or the International Atomic Energy Agency against Iran for its nuclear activity… unfreeze billions of dollars in Iranian assets… in exchange for the release of three Iranian American prisoners whom the U.S. calls wrongfully detained… Such an understanding would also avoid the need for approval from a U.S. Congress deeply hostile to Iran… (As we keep harping, Team Obama-Biden craves a deal with Iran.) The renewed talks have troubled some Israeli officials… a lifeline to Tehran’s economy without sufficiently derailing its nuclear activities… https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/14/us/politics/biden-iran-nuclear-program.html?smid=tw-share Positive aspects of previous session The dollar rebounded moderately. Negative aspects of previous session Stocks declined under the enormous pressure of beaucoup expiring June call options. Bonds declined 13/32; Gasoline rallied 1.36% Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will stocks rebound after the downward pressure of expiring June calls? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4421.83 Previous session High/Low: 4448.47; 4407.44 Biden Admin Sides with Inaugural Donors Ford and GM in Blocking Massachusetts’ ‘Right to Repair’ Law – The car companies donated a combined $750,000 to President Biden’s inauguration. https://readsludge.com/2023/06/16/biden-admin-sides-with-inaugural-donors-ford-and-gm-in-blocking-massachusetts-right-to-repair-law/ US offers to drop some charges for now against Sam Bankman-Fried (Large Dem donor privilege) The offer to sever five of the 13 charges (if he can be tried later) followed a ruling earlier this week in the Bahamas that allows Bankman-Fried to challenge the additional charges… https://abcnews.go.com/Business/us-offers-drop-charges-now-sam-bankman-fried/story?id=100108547 AT&T To Close Downtown San Francisco Flagship Store (SF in collapse mode) The planned AT&T shutdown marks the 25th major business closure in the Union Square area since the start of the pandemic… https://sfstandard.com/business/att-to-close-downtown-san-francisco-flagship-store/ ‘Good Morning America’ won’t film live from downtown San Francisco: ‘Simply too dangerous’ San Francisco saw an 11.4% rise in robberies and an 83% rise in homicides since 2022 https://www.foxnews.com/media/good-morning-america-film-live-downtown-san-francisco-simply-dangerous @nypost: Today’s cover: Brazen migrant smugglers offer services through TikTok, with videos promoting $13B industry https://trib.al/XN1sz9E Democrat bill gives immigrants instant access to federal benefits, ends ‘xenophobic’ 5-year wait https://t.co/Bdc9sjkj7u Stock market could face $150 billion headwind from rebalancing sales: JPM The world’s biggest asset managers could unload around $150 billion in equities by the end of June, with the money set to flow into bonds, driven by month- and quarter-end rebalancing, according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co… https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/stock-market-could-face-150-billion-headwind-from-rebalancing-sales-jpm-8b14517c NY Magazine: Jim Cramer and the Art of Being Wrong Market obsessives… have put CNBC’s biggest star through the MemeWorld fun house, casting him as the opposite of a guru — Wall Street’s perfect inverse indicator… The Inverse Cramer ETF — ticker symbol SJIM — is the creation of Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management… https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/06/jim-cramer-and-the-art-of-being-wrong.html Toyota Touts Solid State EVs with 932-Mile Range, 10-Minute Charging by 2027 https://www.pcmag.com/news/toyota-touts-solid-state-evs-with-932-mile-range-10-minute-charging-by Today – When strong rallies occur during expiry week and expiration day is soft due to pressure from expiring calls, there have been rebound rallies on Monday. The S&P 500 low on Friday was 4407.44. 4000 to 4407 should be solid support. Toyota’s new battery could fell Tesla, which could harm Fangs. If stocks rally today on alleviated pressure from expiry June options, a short-term peak could appear today or tomorrow. Stocks are extremely overbought and the upward bias for Fed and expiry weeks is over. Also, the S&P 500 made a new 14-year high on Friday but closed negative for the day. Technicians call this a ‘reversal day.’ However, expiration machinations mitigate the significance of the Reserve Day. Expected economic data: June NAHB Housing Market Index 51; ESUs are -3.50 at 20:40 ET. S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4181; 100-day MA: 4104; 150-day MA: 4049; 200-day MA: 3984 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,594; 100-day MA: 33,361; 150-day MA: 33,446; 200-day MA: 32,809 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4087.45 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4322.91 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4392.78 triggers a sell signal FBI Asks Judge to Delay Seth Rich Laptop Release for 66 Years (Obviously, L’affaire Seth Rich is more than a robbery gone bad!) https://nationalfile.com/fbi-asks-judge-to-delay-seth-rich-laptop-release-for-66-years/ ‘God save the Queen’? Biden concludes gun control event speech with bizarre remark At present, King Charles III sits on the throne and the song is rendered as “God Save the King.” https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/god-save-queen-biden-concludes-gun-control-event-speech-bizarre-remark @simonateba: This gaffe has now gone viral after President @JoeBiden said at the end of his speech in Connecticut, “God save the Queen!” Many were baffled because the Queen is dead, and it was not clear why he said, “God save the Queen.” Ex-Thatcher aide @NileGardiner: Joe Biden hates Britain and the British Monarchy but his new catchphrase is “God save the Queen, man”. It is not clear that President Biden actually knows what he is doing, thinking or saying. (81 million votes?!?!?!) ZH: Believe it or not, “God save the queen” wasn’t even the nuttiest thing Biden said in Connecticut. Bragging about his administration’s attack on stabilizing braces for firearms, Biden said, “Put a pistol on a brace and it turns into a gun…makes it [so] you can have a….higher-caliber bullet coming out of that gun.”… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-baffles-audience-closing-speech-god-save-queen Biden makes a bizarre joke to crickets in the audience, then asks, “Alright, where we going? https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1670102545392627713 @RNCResearch: Biden: “Down in Philadelphia and New York, areas I know well, like up here, you’d see a truck pull up, pull the curb and selling weapons, selling guns, selling AR-15s…” (81 million votes?!?!) https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1669785330688626693 BIDEN: “The way everything gets to me through my wife and daughter now is they know I have to shave in the morning, so they’ll tape on the mirror. For real!” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1669782901964296192 @RNCResearch: Biden hosts Eva Longoria at the White House for a screening of her new movie: “We’ve known each other for a long time. She was 17, I was 40.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1669501154953162752 [When actress Eva Longoria was 17 (born 3/1975), The Big Guy was 50 (born 11/1942).] NOT TONIGHT, JOE! Biden Goes for the Grope – But Eva Longoria Not Havin’ It (Removes his hand) https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/06/its-thursday-biden-gropes-hot-actress-white-house/ ‘Creepy!’ Calls for Eva Longoria to speak out against Biden emerge as slow-mo ‘grope’ video hits Twitter https://americanwirenews.com/creepy-calls-for-eva-longoria-to-speak-out-against-biden-emerge-as-slow-mo-grope-video-hits-twitter/ Bidens and Eva Longoria screen ‘Flamin’ Hot’ movie about the origins of the spicy Cheetos snack “Flamin’ Hot,” a feel-good story about how a Mexican American janitor working at Frito-Lay sold his superiors on his idea to spice up the crunchy snack’s cheesy coating. … But The Los Angeles Times has published allegations that Montañez fabricated his role in the snack’s creation. And Frito-Lay says he “was not involved.”… https://www.fox19.com/2023/06/16/bidens-eva-longoria-screen-flamin-hot-movie-about-origins-spicy-cheetos-snack/ @RNCResearch: Biden speaks to immigrants: “I want you to know, Jill and I, we see you. We value you. We are indirectly a part of you because of our heritage, as well, in different ethnicities.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1669504638284906497 BIDEN: “You realize that 26 out of every 100 in grades kindergarten through 12 speak Spanish? No, think about it! What in the hell—heck are we talking about here?” Biden completely made up that statistic. https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1669505231875440640 Joe Biden stated on September 15, 2020 in a speech at a Florida event: “24 of every 100 kids in school today speak Spanish.”… The American Community Survey showed that nationwide, about 17% of all public school students speak Spanish, according to experts at the Pew Research Center. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/sep/23/joe-biden/fact-checking-bidens-claim-about-number-students-w/ Do Americans really understand the demeaning absurdity of Biden as president and Kamala as VP? Hunter Biden associate Devon Archer in talks to dish about alleged $10 million bribe from Ukraine Former Hunter Biden business partner Devon Archer is in talks with the House Oversight Committee to testify about his knowledge of the first family’s business dealings in countries including Russia and Ukraine… The disgraced businessman joined Burisma’s board in early 2014 alongside the then-second son. Also, Obama White House visitor logs indicate that Archer met with Joe Biden as they joined the company in Ukraine, where the elder Biden led US policy… https://trib.al/vBxwNbF The Babylon Bee: For Father’s Day, Hunter Negotiates 12% for The Big Guy https://t.co/tjOjtvGZWM Why Donald Trump Cannot Get a Top-Tier Lawyer: by Alan M. Dershowitz There is a nefarious group that calls itself The 65 Project that has as its goal to intimidate lawyers into not representing Trump or anyone associated with him. They have threatened to file bar charges against any such lawyers… https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19725/donald-trump-lawyer @simonateba: What do you make of Senator @JohnFetterman who came, along with other Democrat politicians, to greet President @JoeBiden at the airport in Pennsylvania wearing basketball shorts and a hoodie? https://t.co/1ybxLzxdj9 Fetterman turns heads with speech struggles during Senate infrastructure hearing: ‘He’s not well’ https://t.co/cB4kYRdEDz Fetterman: “[Biden] is here to commit to work with the governor and the delegadation to make sure that we get this fixed quick, fast, as well, too. This is a president that is committed to infructure, yeah, and then on top of that the jewel kind of a law of the infration.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1670100582454169600 Senator John Fetterman: “It’s a pleasure to be here and to introduce my friend, Congressman Boyle Bile.” (He means Rep. Brendan Boyle) https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1670100995970588672 Jordan presses IRS chief on allegations agent entered Ohioan’s home using fake name The agency later informed the taxpayer that the case had been closed and that she owed no money on either the estate or her own filings… (The Deep State is above US laws.) https://t.co/KqPgYmWvoO It Begins: 20 Heavily Armed IRS and ATF Agents Raid Great Falls (Montana) Gun Store, Seize Firearm Purchase Records https://t.co/oV3aJJX9jE @mirandadevine: Why are IRS agents being used apparently to seize gun ownership records? Pity those 87,000 IRS agents weren’t defunded as promised by the GOP. African Official Unleashes on Bill Gates and George Soros: ‘My Continent Is Not Your Giant Climate Laboratory’ – Chukwumerije Okereke, director of the Center for Climate Change and Development… in Nigeria, said these concepts should not be tried out using Africa as a giant petri dish… https://www.westernjournal.com/african-official-unleashes-bill-gates-george-soros-continent-not-giant-climate-laboratory/ Thousands of protestors gather outside Dodger stadium ahead of event honoring drag ‘nuns’ The Sisters will receive the Community Hero Award during a pregame ceremony… https://www.foxnews.com/sports/thousands-protest-sisters-of-perpetual-indulgence-outside-dodgers-stadium-hours-before-start-of-pride-night GOP Sen. @marcorubio: Tonight, at Dodgers Stadium the @Dodgers @MLB didn’t just honor an anti-Christian group, they joined in the mocking of the Catholic faith by having their PA announcer introduce as “sisters” two men from this hate group dressed as nuns… Here is the ad the station covering tonight’s @Dodgers broadcast would not allow me to run: https://t.co/hnL985gZ9i @RonDeSantis: Good on the thousands who showed up at Dodger Stadium to protest this anti-Catholic hate group. The virtually empty stadium for the game itself was a powerful image – Americans are fed up with the nonsense and are fighting back. https://twitter.com/RonDeSantis/status/1670140388684840961 @MarinaMedvin: Federal (Obama) judge (Berkley law) in Massachusetts says a shirt that reads “there are only two genders” is not protected speech and “invades the rights of others.” https://t.co/uzcVh60rlZ @TPostMillennial: Democrat witness (At House) can’t name ONE study that shows how transgender procedures are beneficial for kids. https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1669076486760931328 Scientists respond to resurfaced 1991 study on Borderline Personality Disorder in mothers of transgender boys https://t.co/RAHVrwdMbj ‘ABSOLUTELY WRONG’: @Caitlyn_Jenner sounds off on Democratic lawmakers for pushing gender treatment for minors… “Being trans or gender dysphoric, it is real, OK? But to push this on kids is absolutely wrong,” Jenner said. “Let the kids be kids and leave our kids alone.” https://trib.al/vAe6CJ3 @DeSantisWarRoom: CNN: Trump repeatedly celebrated the inclusion of transgender women in his beauty pageant https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/16/politics/trump-transgender-women-pageants-kfile/index.html @IAPolls202242: Harvard/Harris Poll: 78% of Americans say puberty blockers and gender surgery should only be allowed for those over 18. 79% oppose the law in their state that would allow gender changing surgery and puberty blockers for minors without parental permission. https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1669855978596999168 “How many legs does a dog have if you call his tail a leg? Four. Saying that a tail is a leg doesn’t make it a leg.” — Abraham Lincoln @alx: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll: June 14-18, 2015: Jeb Bush — 22%, Scott Walker — 17% Marco Rubio — 14%, Ben Carson — 11%, Mike Huckabee — 9%, Rand Paul — 7% Rick Perry — 5%, Ted Cruz — 4%, Chris Christie — 4%, Carly Fiorina — 2%, Donald Trump — 1% @jacobkschneider: Del. Stacey Plaskett (D-Virgin Islands): “[Trump] needs to be shot— stopped.” (Will the Secret Service or FBI visit her? Of course not!) https://twitter.com/jacobkschneider/status/1670423830249046016 High-dose vitamin C injections shown to annihilate cancer: Building upon earlier research pioneered in the 1970s by the late Linus Pauling… “Because vitamin C has no patent potential, its development will not be supported by pharmaceutical companies,” says Qi Chen… vitamin C given intravenously can have the opposite effect by promoting the formation of one of those compounds: hydrogen peroxide. Cancer cells are particularly susceptible to damage by such reactive oxygen-containing compounds.” https://t.co/NjhNIKo58o Rand Paul rips Bill Gates’ alleged tie to gain-of-function research: ‘Funding the biggest danger to mankind’ https://www.foxnews.com/media/rand-paul-bill-gates-ties-gain-function-research-funding-danger-mankind ‘Double-Talking’ Vaccine Scientist Refuses to Debate RFK Jr. Despite $1.5 Million Charity Pot The MSM’s has anointed a new vax-peddling talking head – Dr. Peter Hotez…Why wouldn’t Hotez want to crush RFK Jr. with his towering intellect and ‘science’ on his side?… https://t.co/gntHlfqS7L 22 injured, 1 killed at massive Illinois Juneteenth celebration – in the Chicago suburb of Willowbrook. At least 200 teens and young adults were gathered in a parking lot (illegally) for a Juneteenth celebration when dozens of gunshots rang around 12:30 a.m… https://trib.al/0n6mtJI This is an area adjacent to our town. We used to live a few blocks from the mass shooting parking lot. @JovanHPulitzer: The US has the 3rd highest murder rate in the world. If you remove Chicago, Detroit, Washington D.C., St. Louis, Philadelphia. The US is then 189th of 193 countries in the world. All five cities have strict gun control laws and are controlled by Democrats. Fact check it. https://twitter.com/JovanHPulitzer/status/1670477575070556160 @OlgaBazova: Yesterday Putin revealed an extremely important piece of information. In April 2022, an agreement of permanent neutrality of Ukraine was signed between Russia and Ukraine. It also reveals that the Western narrative that Putin can’t be trusted is just another projection. The basic outline of the agreement is as follows: 1. Russia withdraws troops from Kiev, Sumy and Chernigov 2. Ukraine declares neutrality 3. Ukraine reduces its armed forces 4. Ukraine gives up NATO aspirations in exchange for security guarantees from a number of countries. But what happened next will most likely go down in history as the beginning of an end of Ukraine as we know it. Russia did indeed withdraw its troops, which was joked about as a gesture of goodwill. It was coined as the defeat of Russia in the battle of Kiev. It turns out that it was indeed a gesture of goodwill. Having snuffed it out, Boris Johnson flew to meet with Zelensky who subsequently, “on the orders of Washington, threw this treaty into the dustbin of history.” From this moment on the escalation curve steepens to the state of no return for Ukraine… The bloodthirsty psychopath leaders of the West wanted Russian blood so much that they sacrificed an entire nation to satisfy their thirst for Russian blood and exposed themselves to once again be cynical hypocrites and now they too are paying the price. Putin’s suicide tank attack: Russia packs T-54 with six tons of explosives and remotely drives it at Ukrainians… Volodymyr Zelensky pausing his counter to avoid huge losses after Russian helicopters helped destroy dozens of Western armoured vehicles… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12208385/Russians-pack-T-54-explosives-remotely-drive-Ukrainian-soldiers.html The King Report June 25, 2018 Issue 7015Independent View of the News Team Obama-Biden ceded Taiwan to Xi on Monday. 10% for The Big Guy keeps paying off! @townhallcom: Blinken: “I reiterated the long-standing US One China policy… “We do not support Taiwan independence. We remain opposed to any unilateral changes to the status quo.… We continue to expect a peaceful resolution of cross-strait differences.” https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1670788634666999808 @CollinRugg: Secretary of State Anthony Blinken gives China the green light to invade Taiwan during his visit to Beijing, China. “We do not support Taiwan independence.” What a pivot from Biden’s previous comments from just months ago. What happened? “Yes, if in fact, there was an unprecedented attack,” Biden said after being asked if he would defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion. https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1670798090054381573 Daily Mirror: China Warns US ‘co-operation or conflict’ as it lays down law during Blinken visit China blamed the “US side’s erroneous perception of China, leading to incorrect policies towards China” for the current “low point”… https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/china-warns-co-operation-conflict-30266778 Blinken and Xi pledge to stabilize deteriorated US-China ties, but China rebuffs the main US request: better communications between their militaries… Blinken said later that the U.S. set limited objectives for the trip and achieved them. He told reporters before leaving for a Ukraine reconstruction conference in London that he had raised the issue of military to military communications “repeatedly.” https://apnews.com/article/us-china-blinken-xi-biden-ce8bf13e5a02977a5291c001761ae0b3 China expert warns Xi Jinping has set ‘time frame’ to annex Taiwan Gordon Chang: “Xi Jinping is serious… He talks about how China was the next Taiwan in the quote-unquote ‘new era.’ ‘New era’ is Xi Jinping’s code word for the time in which he rules China,… [This means] he’s now put a time frame on annexing Taiwan, and this makes this quite dangerous.”… Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo:… “Xi Jinping has played his cards… He has made clear his intention to, in his words, ‘reunify China.’ That means bringing Taiwan, which has never been a part of China, into his political orbit.“… Pompeo described meeting the Chinese president… and detailed his “cold and distant” facade that hinted not only at his animosity toward the West, but his plans to encroach upon other nearby territories in his region – even beyond Taiwan. “He wanted to make sure we knew that he felt like we were meddling in his space… It was pretty clear. His space was not just inside the country, not just inside of Xinjiang. It was in the South China Sea. It was in Taiwan. It was in the Spratly Islands. It was in the things that were taking place in Africa, all across the world…” … “When you believe that you should rule the universe, it means you also should rule Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the South China Sea,” Chang elaborated… https://t.co/0qxTetNTgI @Jkylebass: As Churchill said of Chamberlain in 1938, “Is it the new policy to come to terms with the Totalitarian powers in the hope that by great and far-reaching acts of submission, not merely in sentiment and pride, but in material factors, peace may be preserved?” Just imagine what Churchill would say to Biden and Blinken today. We continue to make the same mistakes Chamberlain and Halifax made in the 1930s leading up to WWII. @PhillipsPOBrien: The US seems to have two basic policy options presented to it: One is to robustly help Ukraine and try to stabilize relations with China. The other is to force a bad deal of Ukraine to try and confront China aggressively. The first is logical, the second makes little sense. The mood music between Secretary Blinken and President Xi was mostly good–a senior Chinese diplomat said the meetings marked “a new beginning”. Hard to see China now pivoting and providing massive support to Russia after that. (Watch this litmus test to verify Xi’s veracity and intentions!) @RNCResearch: “So are you saying that President Biden has not yet spoken with Secretary Blinken after his meetings?” KARINE JEAN-PIERRE: “What I can say is he’s been kept abreast by the National Security Council, regular communication with them. Once the secretary lands, comes back to the USA he will have a full briefing from him.” (Is Joe outside the loop?) https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1670837645797376001 Oil slides more than $1 on China growth uncertainties A number of large banks have cut their forecasts for China’s 2023 growth in gross domestic product after May data last week showed the post-COVID recovery in the world’s second-largest economy was faltering. China is widely expected to cut its benchmark loan rates on Tuesday after a similar reduction in medium-term policy loans last week to shore up a shaky economic recovery… https://t.co/cae8sAXlxr The US stock and debt markets were closed on Monday for the Juneteenth Holiday. Futures markets were open until 13:00 ET. PS – Blinken’s Taiwan concession remarks first appeared just after 7 ET. ESUs hit their daily high of 4462 at 18:10 ET. They then slid to 4447.00 at the 1 ET Nikkei close. Traders then aggressively bought ESUs and stocks for the expected Monday rally and post-expiry position squaring. ESUs hit 460.75 at 3:37 ET. ESUs and stocks quickly sank. The decline persisted until ESUs hit 443.00 at 10:13 ET. ESUs had a modest rally into the European close. They drifted sideways into the 13:00 ET close. USUs declined 30/32. They hit a high of 127 20/32, +9/32 at the 3 ET European open. They sank to the daily low of 126 12/32, -31/32 at 11:06. USU then traded within 2 ticks until the 13:00 ET. US Homebuilder Sentiment Increases to an Almost One-Year High The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo gauge rose five points to 55, figures showed Monday. The index, which has increased for six consecutive months, exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-homebuilder-sentiment-increases-almost-140000283.html Positive aspects of previous session The dollar rallied moderately for the 2nd straight session. Commodities declined. Negative aspects of previous session ESUs declined sharply after a robust rally into early European trading USUs declined almost 1 point Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will Blinken’s Chamberlain moment on Taiwan hurt US financial assets? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4421.83 Previous session High/Low: 4448.47; 4407.44 @elonmusk: I’m prepared to argue in favor of vaccines if you’d like. Do I think vaccines should be examined closely & mortality risk isn’t substantially reduced in America? Yes… But it was a mistake to push for so many Covid-19 booster shots (even the initial vaccine shot was overkill on quantity). There‘s obviously risk of the immune system going out of control when it sees what you’ve trained it to believe is a serious disease over & over again. Disney’s New Ultra-Woke Kids Movie Featuring ‘Nonbinary’ Character Bombs at the Box Office https://t.co/Imd57VT7aW @RadicalAdem: Wow for the first time ever cash, S&P earnings yield, and corp bonds are all the same ~ massive rate compression across assets. This is a very telling situation and had had big implications for portfolio balancing. https://t.co/iTH8mDco23 WaPo: FBI resisted opening probe into Trump’s role in Jan. 6 for more than a year A Washington Post investigation found that more than a year would pass before prosecutors and FBI agents jointly embarked on a formal probe of actions directed from the White House to try to steal the election. Even then, the FBI stopped short of identifying the former president as a focus of that investigation… In November, after Trump announced he was again running for president, making him a potential 2024 rival to President Biden, Garland appointed special counsel Jack Smith to take over the investigation into Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election… Axelrod saw an uncomfortable analogy to Black Lives Matter protests that had ended in vandalism in D.C. and elsewhere a year earlier. “Imagine if we had requested membership lists for BLM” in the middle of the George Floyd protests, he would say later, people said… https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fbi-resisted-opening-probe-into-trump-s-role-in-jan-6-for-more-than-a-year/ar-AA1cKbzd Turley: The Utter Failure of Merrick Garland Time and again, Garland could have made decisions to seek to assure the public with more moderate and transparent decisions. He has repeatedly failed to do so… Garland is not solely at fault. Biden took office promising to be a unifier and a moderate. He immediately adopted far left policies and fueled divisions by denouncing millions of “MAGA Republicans” and his political opponents as “semi-fascist” extremists… The failure of Merrick Garland is becoming more and more evident by the day. The public continues to distrust the Department, and his assurances of fair dealing have been overwhelmingly rejected by Republicans and independents… https://jonathanturley.org/2023/06/19/the-utter-failure-of-merrick-garland/ Ignore progressives: Juneteenth is a celebration of freedom for all Americans On Juneteenth, short for June nineteenth, we are reminded of our nation’s greatest sin of slavery and its end after federal troops arrived in Galveston, Texas, in 1865 to enforce the Emancipation Proclamation… As Americans, we celebrate liberty and independence from tyranny, and that’s what Juneteenth is all about. Although slavery was a worldwide phenomenon, America’s ambition was to deviate from the norm in pursuit of freedom… https://nypost.com/2023/06/19/ignore-progressives-juneteenth-is-a-celebration-of-freedom-for-all-americans/ Today – Traders will play for a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside from ESUs’ Monday decline. Astute traders and investors will ponder the ramifications of Team Obama-Biden’s bequeathing of Taiwan to Xi. USUs could be a factor after their sharp tumble from the European open until the NYSE open. Expected economic data: May Housing Starts 1.4m, Permits 1.425m; St. Louis Fed Pres Bullard 6:30 ET, NY Fed Pres Williams and Fed Vice Chair Barr 11:45 ET on leadership at NY Fed event ESUs are -7.50 from Friday’s close at 20:45 ET. S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4181; 100-day MA: 4104; 150-day MA: 4049; 200-day MA: 3984 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,594; 100-day MA: 33,361; 150-day MA: 33,446; 200-day MA: 32,809 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4087.45 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4322.91 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4392.78 triggers a sell signal Burisma had Hunter Biden help open account with corrupt Malta bank Hunter Biden coordinated with executives at Ukrainian natural gas company Burisma Holdings to open an account at a corrupt Maltese bank, according to emails from the first son’s abandoned laptop. Hunter, now 53, passed along income statements, passport information and utility bills in 2016 to Burisma board adviser Vadym Pozharskyi, who used the information to open an account with Satabank… Satabank closed in 2018 after Malta’s Financial Intelligence Analysis Unit found “gross deficiencies” in the bank’s ability to abide by money laundering and terrorism finance laws… https://t.co/nCUB8CF6Oh @RobertKennedyJr: Looks like the Biden Administration deployed Boris Johnson to scuttle a tentative peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in spring 2022. This was never about the Ukrainian people. It was always about engineering a war against Russia. Last Friday Sec. of State Antony Blinken confirmed once again that the Biden administration has no intention of ending the Ukraine conflict peacefully. He dismissed the idea of a ceasefire + called for further transfers of high-tech weaponry + aircraft… The Biden administration plan, which Blinken and others have explicitly admitted on numerous occasions, is to use Ukraine to achieve the larger geopolitical goal of weakening Russia. In other words, the Ukrainians are cannon fodder in a U.S. proxy war against Russia. “We Knew a Long Time Ago There Was Only Mush Between Those Ears – He Has Reverted Back to a Dirty Old Man” – FOX Cohost Emily Compagno on Joe Biden – And a quick final point about the Eva Longoria grab, which I find distasteful. Where are the feminists? Where is the woke left who reminded us after four women came forward while President Biden was then camp campaigning, which induced him to release a video in 2019 saying, I will be more mindful and more respectful of women’s personal space? I remember that video from then candidate Joe Biden. It appears he has lost what he campaigned on, and now, as president, has reverted back to a dirty old man… https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/06/we-knew-long-time-ago-there-was-only/ @RNCResearch: BIDEN: “I’ve committed that by 2020, we will have conserved 30% of all the lands and waters…” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1670891954224373760 BIDEN: “A couple businesses are suing banks because they wanna consider whether or not you’re environmentally— anyway, I won’t get into all that, I’ll get…” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1670891035101388800 “Watch me if you think I don’t have the energy level or the mental acuity.” — Joe Biden Rep. Anna Eshoo physically pulls Biden across the stage to meet with attendees after his speech. https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1670893298339450882 @KevinTober94: @BretBaier : “Why did you have these very sensitive national security defense documents like the war plans for a strike on Iran?” Trump: “Like every other president I take things out. In my case, I took it out pretty much in a hurry. People packed it up and we left…” https://twitter.com/KevinTober94/status/1670916566391705603 After going through a laundry list of insults Trump made toward people he hired in his administration, @BretBaier asks “Why did you hire all of them in the first place?” https://twitter.com/KevinTober94/status/1670923018351067137 Pentagon’s Secret Service Trawls Social Media for Mean Tweets About Generals A document shows the Protective Services Battalion uses sophisticated surveillance tools that can pinpoint anyone’s location… https://theintercept.com/2023/06/17/army-surveillance-social-media/ Patients who regret sex-change ops, sue doctors pose legal challenges for health care industry Mother “repeatedly” told doctors daughter might have same bipolar disorder but was ignored in favor of drugs and surgery. Academic publisher called out for selective retraction… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/health/detransitioners-sue-providers-cancellation-comes-rapid-onset-gender NASA admits climate change occurs because of changes in Earth’s solar orbit, not because of SUVs and fossil fuels https://t.co/hKKAaFQESz | |
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING MARK CRISPIN MILLER
Lying Legacy Media Helped Murder Millions – Mark Crispin Miller
By Greg Hunter On June 17, 2023 In Political Analysis42 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)
Professor Mark Crispin Miller (MCM) teaches media studies at New York University (NYU) and is an expert in propaganda. Dr. Miller says just about everything concerning Covid was a “propaganda masterpiece.” This masterpiece was a murder, disability and sterilization program with more than 675 million CV19 bioweapon injections in America alone, according to the CDC. Could they have pulled off the murder of millions with the CV19 bioweapon/vax without the Lying Legacy Media (LLM)? Dr. Miller says, “Oh, absolutely not. . . . Let me quibble a little bit the term the ‘legacy media’ by which you mean the New York Times, the Washington Post, the TV networks and so on. It’s what we often call the mainstream media or maybe it’s better to call them the corporate media because they are less and less mainstream and more and more eccentric. It isn’t only those outlets that were all unanimous in pushing the Corona virus panic, the masking cult, the vaccination drive and so on, but also the ‘Left’ Press. I wrote for them years ago and appeared on ‘Democracy Now’ as a guest. The ‘Left’ Press has been almost impossible to distinguish from the New York Times and the rest of them. This helps us understand why and how so many people fell for this.”
The Cv19 bioweapon injection lie was not a one-off event. Propaganda in America has been going on for a long time. A turning point for lying to the country was what happened in the aftermath of the JFK assassination in Dallas, Texas in 1963. MCM explains, “There was the smashing success of the CIA’s drive to make ‘conspiracy theory’ the phrase of choice, to dismiss inconvenient notions, to dismiss taboo ideas. . . . In 1967 . . . the CIA sent out its memo ‘1035-960.’ It’s online and anyone can find it. It instructed all the CIA station chiefs worldwide to use their propaganda assets and friends in the media . . . to start attacking the writings of these few investigators who started to raise really good questions about the Warren Report, concerning the assassination of JFK in Dallas. . . . Their problem was people pointing out the Warren Report was completely incredible. It was laughable. . . . The Executive Summary of the Warren Report didn’t seem to bear any resemblance to information in the other volumes. There were all kinds of contradictions within it, and it didn’t make any sense. They were basically calling for a new commission. What did the CIA do? It got its people to mount a covert propaganda drive where politicians and journalists started to take potshots at these critics. They called them ‘conspiracy theorists.’ This term was never used before 1967 . . . and what it meant was you are crazy. . . . There were many (CIA) talking points in this memo. One was you were echoing communist propaganda and that kind of thing. This was a wildly successful operation, and it did not stop. . . . That phrase would continue to be used and was used after the assassination of Bobby Kennedy. It was used after Martin Luther King’s assassination. It was used during Iran Contra. . . . conspiracy theory, conspiracy theory, it was used certainly after 9/11 . . . .and now if you quarrel with an outcome in an election, you are a conspiracy theorist. . . . To be called a conspiracy theorist is a form of mockery. It’s the whole tin foil hat thing. You are kind of crazy.”
MCM says building a propaganda network over decades had to happen for the widespread acceptance of the CV19 bioweapon/vax. MCM says, “The conspiracy propaganda drive is one thing that had to have happened for the covid nightmare to be successfully realized.”
MCM says there is come good news and that is the LLM or ‘corporate’ media is losing power dramatically. MCM predicts there will be so many deaths and disabilities from the CV19bioweapon/vax people will wake up, and “It will be impossible to keep this going.”
In closing, MCM says, “We need an accounting. We need justice. This is too atrocious for words. . . . To the extent we take pleasure in others’ suffering, we are maintaining division. As long as we are divided, we are screwed. This is the oldest trick in the imperial playbook. ‘Divide and conquer’ . . . . This is a key to their continued success. We have to stop going after each other’s throats. . . . We should be going after their throats.”
There is much more in the in-depth 1-hour and 4-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with NYU Media Studies Professor and propaganda expert Dr. Mark Crispin Miller for 6.17.23.
(Tech Note: If you do not see the video, know it is there. Unplug your modem and plug it back in after 30 sec. This will clear codes that may be blocking you from seeing it. In addition, try different browsers. Also, turn off all ad blockers if you have them. All the above is a way Big Tech tries to censor people like USAWatchdog.com.)
After the Interview:
There is lots of free information on Dr. Miller’s Substack, including his popular “Died Suddenly” reports. The data is collected every week from the U.S. and more than 2 dozen countries around the world.
You can support Dr. Miller by becoming a subscriber to his Substack.
You can also visit MarkCrispinMiller.com for free information and read about his court case.
To donate electronically to Dr. Miller, click here.
I will see you on WEDNESDAY
harveyorganblog.com 
[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]
LikeLike