JUNE 21//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $2.45 TO $1934.15//SILVER CLOSED DOWN $.0.40 TO $22.79/PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $15.45 TO $950.45 WHILE PALLADUM CLOSED DOWN $30.65 TO $1350.60//IMPORTANT READ FOR TODAY: JAMES RICKARDS//CHINA LASHES OUT AGAINST BIDEN FOR CALLING XI A DICTATOR//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA UPDATES//COVID VACCINE UPDATES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/SLAY NEWS//TUCKER CARLSON PODCAST NO 5//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT..
132 C SG AMERICAS 7 323 C HSBC 480 323 H HSBC 83 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 12 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 47 661 C JP MORGAN 8 218 661 H JP MORGAN 11 685 C RJ OBRIEN 1 690 C ABN AMRO 10 22 709 C BARCLAYS 3 737 C ADVANTAGE 2 6 880 H CITIGROUP 76 905 C ADM 14
TOTAL: 500 500 MONTH TO DATE: 19,677
JPMorgan stopped 229/500 contracts
FOR JUNE:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2023. CONTRACT: 500 NOTICES FOR 50,000 OZ or 1.552 TONNES
total notices so far: 19,677 contracts for 1,967,700 oz (61.203 tonnes)
FOR JUNE:
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR NIL OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 423 for 2,115,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:////
INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS AT THE SLV// ???
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.4784 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 468.967 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1042 CONTRACTS TO 152,632 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GIGANTIC $0.89 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1419 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH . CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 1419 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE THIS YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 117,395 CONTRACTS ///MARCH 29.2023. OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.89). BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1658CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 13.370MILLION OZ.). WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG WITH MANIPULATION NOW MID MONTH AND BEYOND, DUE TO (TAS) MANIPULATION.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 616 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.935 MILLION OZ(FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK(ISSUED TODAY: TOTAL ISSUED SO FAR: 13.370 MILLION OZ)// TOTAL STANDING FOR THE MONTH 4.270 MILLION OZ + 13.370 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 17,640 MILLION OZ// ) // HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) STRONG NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (790CONTRACTS)//
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –339 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 13 days, total 15,137 contracts: OR 75.685 MILLION OZ (1164 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 75.685 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.430 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 75.685 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1042 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.89 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 616 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE OF 3.935 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP+ 0 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY + 13.37 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK(PRIOR)//NEW TOTAL STANDING: 17.640 MILLION OZ////// .. WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF1658 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE 1419//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION RAID. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TODAY (1419) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE.
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR NIL OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6,000 CONTRACTS TO 438,037 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED – 1124 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 6,000 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $22.40 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE. AT 70.79 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0279 TONNE QUEUE JUMP: NEW TOTAL 64.195 TONNES STANDING SO FAR // + /A STRONG ISSUANCE OF 1162 T.A.S. CONTRACTS ////YET ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $22.40 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 9.394 OI CONTRACTS (29.219 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3394 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 438,037
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9,394 CONTRACTS WITH 6,000 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX//TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG 1162 CONTRACTS) AND 3394 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9,394CONTRACTS OR 29.219 TONNES.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3394 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (6,000) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9,394 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE AT 70.79 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 900 OZ QUEUE JUMP //// NEW STANDING RISES TO 64.195 TONNES// /3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1162 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
JUNE
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 31,210 CONTRACTS OR 3,121,000 OZ OR 97.076TONNES IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2400 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 97.076 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 97.076/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.73% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 97.076 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1042 CONTRACTS OI TO 152,632 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 117,395 CONTRACTS MARCH 27/2022
EFP ISSUANCE 616 CONTRACTS (RECORD ISSUANCE)
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 350and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 616 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1042 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 616OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1658 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 8.290 MILLION OZ
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 42.46 PTS OR 1.31% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 388.73 PTS OR 1.98% /The Nikkei closed UP 186.23 OR 0.56% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.57 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1884 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.1896 /Oil DOWN TO 71.16 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 75.78 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6,000 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 438,037 DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $22.40 ON TUESDAY,
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 3394 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 3394 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3394 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 9,394 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3394LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6,000 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $22.40//TUESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A STRONG 1162 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS INITIATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GOLD/SILVER MARKET AS RAIDS WILL SURELY BE UPON US.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JUNE (64.195) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.541 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.195 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $22.40) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD OUR HUGE GAIN OF 9,394 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION . THE TAS ISSUED TUESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 32.715PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE. (70.709 TONNES) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 900 OZ QUEUE JUMP..NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 64.195 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $22.40
WE HAD – REMOVED 1124 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 9394 CONTRACTS OR 939400 OZ OR 29.219 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
19,677 notices 1,967,700 OZ 61.203 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
No dealer withdrawals
Customer deposits: 0
Dealer deposit: 1
i)Into ASHAI 47,948.709 oz
total dealer deposits: 47,948.709 oz
Customer Withdrawals: 3
i) out of Brinks: 64.300 oz (2 kilobars)
ii) Out of JPMorgan: 192.906 oz (6 kilobars)
iii) Out of HSBC: 10,807.843 oz
total 11,065.049 oz
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE.
For the front month of JUNE we have an oi of 1462 contracts having LOST 202 contracts. We had 211 contracts served on Tuesday so we gained 9 contracts or an additional 900 oz will stand for gold at the comex.
The next front month after June is the non active delivery month of July. Here, July gained 69 contracts to stand at 2538 contracts.
AUGUST gained 3441 contracts up to 368,320 contracts
We had 500 contracts filed for today representing 50,000 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 8 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 500 contract(s) of which 11 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 218 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (19,677 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE (1462 CONTRACT) minus the number of notices served upon today 500 x 100 oz per contract equals 2,065,900 OZ OR 64.195 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of June.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNEcontract month: No of notices filed so far (19,677) x 100 oz + (xxx) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (500) x 100 oz) which equals 2,065,900 oz standing OR 64.195 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 64.195 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 423 x 5,000 oz = 2,115,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE(431) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JUNE/2023 contract month: 423 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JUNE (431) – number of notices served upon today (0 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month equates to 4.270 million oz + 2.935 EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY + 10.435MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK (PRIOR)//NEW TOTAL: 17.640 MILLION OZ STANDING
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 934.03 TONES
JUNE 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $0.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44 TONNES
JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44
JUNE 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.65 TONNES
JUNE 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.65 TONNES
JUNE 8/WITH GOLD UP $20.45 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.46 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.65 TONNES
JUNE 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $22.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.11 TONNES
JUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP $6.90 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.56 TONNES
JUNE 5/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.11 TONNES
JUNE 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $24.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 938.11 TONNES
JUNE 1/WITH GOLD UP $14.10 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.56 TONNES
MAY 31/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 939.56 TONNES
MAY 30/WITH GOLD UP $14.55 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 26/WITH GOLD UP $.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.70 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.50 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 941.29 TONNES
MAY 23/WITH GOLD $2.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.74 TONNES
MAY 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.83 TONES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD DESPITE THE L0SS IN PRICE//INVENTORY RESTS AT 942.74 TONNES
MAY 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.96 TONNES
MAY 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.96 TONNES
MAY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.94 TONNES
MAY 16/WITH GOLD DOWN 28.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.57 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934,07
MAY 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.64 TONNES
MAY 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.84 TONNES
MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.95 TONNES
MAY 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.70 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.95 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 934.03 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $.40 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 89 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ
JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.377 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.642 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 14/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 735,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.019 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.515 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.754 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 9/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF SILVER TO THE TUNE OF 550,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ
JUNE 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.63 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.819 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.01 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.819 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.809 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 5/WITH SILVER DOWN $.13 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 266,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.809 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 918,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.015 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 1/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.933 MILLION OZ
MAY 31/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 367,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.933 MILLION OZ//
MAY 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.300 MILLION OZ//
MAY 26/WITH SILVER UP $0.44 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.306 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.300 MILLION OZ//
MAY 25.WITH SILVER DOWN $0.32 TODAY; SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 276,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.606 MILLION OZ//
MAY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $.35 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.330 MILLION OZ//
MAY 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.801 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 471.330 MILLION OZ//
MAY 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ//
MAY 19/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ
MAY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 919,000 OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.529 MILLION OZ/
MAY 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.448 MILLION OZ//
MAY 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .643 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.448 MILLION OZ.
MAY 15/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.091 MILLION OZ/
MAY 12/WITH SILVER DOWN $.26 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 3,123 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.091 MILLION OZ./
MAY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.18 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.968 MILLION OZ
MAY 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.286 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.968 MILLION OZ//
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
A terrific read from Craig Hemke. He notes that the gold mining shares closely correlate to the rigged silver price
a must read…
(Craig Hemke)
Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Comex silver and the GDX price
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-06-20 20:46Section: Daily Dispatches
8:46p ET Tuesday, June 20, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Market analyst Craig Hemke, writing today at Sprott Money, notes that the price of the gold-mining share exchange-traded fund GDX seems to correlate closely with the silver price and not so much with the gold price.
Why? Hemke suggests that high-frequency trading of mining shares and market manipulation may have something to do with it, and that, indeed, rigging the silver price could be the key mechanism for rigging the whole monetary metals sector.
Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Comex Silver and the GDX” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
END
The following is a very important commentary from Rickards where the BRICS will start a new currency backed by gold on August 22
(Jim Rickards)
Jim Rickards: The biggest monetary shock in 52 years is due in August
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-06-20 20:55Section: Daily Dispatches
By James G. Rickards The Daily Reckoning, Baltimore Tuesday, June 20, 2023
I recently revealed that the so-called “BRICS+” countries will announce the creation of a new currency at their annual leaders summit conference from August 22–24.
This will be the biggest upheaval in international finance since 1971. It’s taking direct aim at the dollar.
The world is unprepared for this geopolitical shock wave.
It appears likely that the new BRICS+ currency will be linked to a weight of gold. This plays to the strengths of BRICS members Russia and China. These countries are the two largest gold producers and are ranked sixth and seventh respectively among the 100 nations with gold reserves.
One difficulty in considering the impact of the new BRICS currency on the dollar is that all dollar indexes compare currency to currency. But that’s meaningless since the dollar, euro, and sterling could all suffer from a loss of confidence at the same time.
If gold goes from $2,000 to $10,000 per ounce, that is better understood as an 80% devaluation of the dollar: from 0.0005 ounces per dollar to 0.0001 ounces per dollar. That’s a collapse of confidence but you’ll miss it if you’re looking at euros or yen.
Those currencies will all be collapsing at the same time. …
I recently revealed that the so-called “BRICS+” countries will announce the creation of a new currency at its annual leaders’ summit conference on August 22–24.
This will be the biggest upheaval in international finance since 1971. It’s taking direct aim at the dollar.
Quite simply, the world is unprepared for this geopolitical shock wave.
It appears likely that the new BRICS+ currency will be linked to a weight of gold. This plays to the strengths of BRICS members Russia and China. These countries are the two largest gold producers in the world, and are ranked sixth and seventh respectively among the 100 nations with gold reserves.
One difficulty in considering the impact of the new BRICS currency on the dollar is that all dollar indexes compare currency to currency. But that’s meaningless since the dollar, euro and sterling could all suffer from a loss of confidence at the same time.
If gold goes from $2,000 to $10,000 per ounce, that is better understood as an 80% devaluation of the dollar: from 0.0005 ounces per dollar to 0.0001 ounces per dollar. That’s a collapse of confidence but you’ll miss it if you’re looking at euros or yen.
Those currencies will all be collapsing at the same time.
The Only Way to Measure the Dollar
The only objective metric for dollar strength is the dollar price of gold by weight since gold is not a central bank currency. This resolves any valuation conundrum as follows:
1. Dollar strength can only properly be measured in gold.
2. Gold is money but it is also a commodity.
3. BRICS are dollar poor but commodity rich.
4. A new BRICS+ currency will be linked to gold.
So the collapse of the dollar really means higher inflation and a much higher dollar price for gold. That means other commodity prices will rise in lockstep. A commodity boom favors BRICS generally speaking.
This dynamic could lead the BRICS+ currency to displace the dollar as a dominant payment currency more quickly than most expect because of the link to gold.
Except for direct participants, the world has mostly ignored this prospect. The result will be a shock to the international monetary system coming in a matter of weeks.
Still, the impact on investors won’t end when the new BRICS+ currency is rolled out. The market implications will roil exchange rates and capital markets for years to come. Most people still have no idea how to even approach the subject.
Isn’t Gold Too Volatile to Support a Currency?
After I introduced this subject earlier this month, I received a reader question that I think needs to be addressed:
Jim, since the gold price is really a function of the paper gold market and is therefore subject to manipulation – and significant volatility – wouldn’t a gold-backed.currency require that gold be fixed at a certain price, such as it was fixed at $20.67 under the classic gold standard?
Otherwise, it would lack the stability a currency requires, even a gold-backed currency. Again, the paper market subjects gold to manipulation.
The U.S. obviously doesn’t want a rival currency bloc, especially one led by Russia and China, and would have every motivation to sabotage it.
The U.S., in conjunction with the big banks, could create all kinds of havoc in the paper market to undercut gold prices.
There really can’t be two parallel gold markets, one fixed at a certain price that BRICS recognizes and the other one fluctuating constantly.
In other words, can a trading bloc really adopt a gold-backed currency in the absence of an updated version of the classic gold standard with a fixed price?
Otherwise the volatility introduced by the paper market would render the underlying commodity unsuitable as a currency, which is meant to be stable. Or so it seems to me.
Am I missing something here?
It’s a good question, and that reader is months ahead of the rest of the world in figuring this out.
Gold Manipulation Is Real
The reader is correct that gold prices are manipulated. There is hard statistical evidence to make the case, in addition to anecdotal evidence and forensic evidence. The evidence is very clear, in fact.
I spoke to a Ph.D. statistician who works for one of the biggest hedge funds in the world. I can’t mention the fund’s name but it’s a household name. You’ve probably heard of it. He looked at Comex (the primary market for gold) opening prices and Comex closing prices for a 10-year period.
He was dumbfounded. He said it was the most blatant case of manipulation he’d ever seen. He said if you went into the aftermarket, bought after the close and sold before the opening every day, you would make risk-free profits.
He said statistically that’s impossible unless there’s manipulation occurring.
I also spoke to Professor Rosa Abrantes-Metz at the New York University Stern School of Business. She is the leading expert on globe price manipulation. She has actually testified in gold manipulation cases.
She wrote a report reaching the same conclusions. It’s not just an opinion, it’s not just a deep, dark conspiracy theory. Here’s a Ph.D. statistician and a prominent market expert lawyer, an expert witness in litigation qualified by the courts, who independently reached the same conclusion.
There’s no need to get into the nuts and bolts of how the manipulation is carried out; it’s enough to realize that it does actually happen.
Anyway, here’s how I’d answer the reader’s question…
It’s All About Weight
There will not be two prices for gold. There can only be one price (with small differences for paper versus physical, commissions, etc.).
If there were two prices in the same currency the difference would quickly disappear due to arbitrage (buying a security in one market and simultaneously selling it in another market at a higher price).
The gold “price” may be expressed in dollars, euros or BRICS+. Of course, you’ll get different absolute values in each currency but that’s a function of exchange rates, not different prices for gold.
The BRICS+ currency will be valued in units of gold by weight.
I don’t know what value they plan to use, but an example would be BRICS1.00 = 1 oz. gold. At today’s market, that would make BRICS1.00 = USD1,950 — but that is not a peg.
The peg is 1.0 oz. So the BRICS currency will have a fixed value in gold.
At the same time, the dollar will have a floating value in gold as it has since 1971. That means the BRICS/USD cross-rate will float based on the value of gold measured in each currency. You will be able to calculate the value of BRICS1.00 measured in dollars, but that is not a peg.
Here’s where it gets interesting for investors and for your asset allocation…
“China and Russia Are Likely to Call the Shots”
If the dollar price of gold goes up, the value of BRICS1.00 will go up against the dollar. If the dollar price of gold goes down, the value of BRICS1.00 will go down against the dollar.
If I’m a BRICS member, I might want the dollar price of gold to go up so I can buy U.S. goods and services on the cheap. Conversely, if I’m a BRICS member and a commodity exporter, I might want the dollar price of gold to go down so parties with dollars will buy more of my commodities.
Of course, that undermines the point of the BRICS currency to some extent because the whole idea is to get away from dollar-based transactions.
China and Russia are likely to call the shots. My estimate is they will want a high dollar price for gold in order to make their BRICS currency more valuable. This will help to increase their own wealth and destroy confidence in the dollar.
This policy backed up by physical gold purchases could drive the dollar price of gold to $3,000 per ounce or higher very quickly. In reality, the BRICS currency and physical gold are pegged and unchanged. If gold goes to $3,000 per ounce, we are actually witnessing the collapse of the dollar.
That’s the whole idea.
The dollar stands to lose in value measured in gold or BRICS currency. The dollar will also lose value due to inflation resulting from the lower value. It will take more dollars to buy imported goods or take vacations abroad.
Moving money to stocks, bonds or savings accounts won’t protect you because they’re all denominated in dollars.
There’s a simple solution to this coming currency crisis. Just buy gold. That will preserve wealth and protect you from inflation. You can always sell the gold if you need cash; it’s just that you’ll get more cash than what you used to buy it. That’s what the BRICS are doing and you can too.
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS/WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1884
OFFSHORE YUAN: 7.1896
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 42.46 PTS OR 1.31%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 388.73 PTS OR 1.98%
2. Nikkei closed UP 186.23 PTS OR 0.56%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 102.14 EURO RISES TO 1.0925 UP 5 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.371 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 141.77/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.403***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.037*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.345…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.671
3j Gold at $1934.25 silver at: 23.05 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 55 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 84.23//
3m oil into the 71 dollar handle for WTI and 75 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 141.77// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, FALLS TO .371% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8972 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9802 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.755 UP 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.836 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.715 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 23.56…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 2 BASIS PTS AT 4.42 UP 10 BASIS PTS (RATES RISING RAPIDLY)
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures Flat Ahead Of Powell Testimony
WEDNESDAY, JUN 21, 2023 – 08:07 AM
US equity futures are flat and global markets grind lower, as bond yields and breakevens rise in reaction to the latest “shockingly” hot UK inflation data (May U.K. CPI unchanged at 8.7% vs. exp. of a drop to 8.4% y/y ) which saw the odds of a 50 bps BOE hike tomorrow jump to 50%. At 7:30am, S&P futures were down -0.1%, flipping between modest gains and losses after trading in a narrow range after the S&P index notched its first back-to-back losses in nearly four weeks. Economic bellwether FedEx Corp. tumbled 3% in premarket trading after its outlook fell short of analyst consensus estimates on weakened demand. The Bloomberg gauge of the dollar moved higher and Group-of-10 currencies were mixed, with the pound the worst performer. Treasury yields drifted higher across the curve, following their UK counterparts. Gold and oil were little changed, while Bitcoin climbed for a third-straight day. BBG reports that Equity ETFs have seen $102BN in inflows vs. $93bn for FICC ETFs; if ECM and M&A turn back on, could flow outperformance increase.
There are no notable economic reports in the U.S. today (the MBA mortgage applications index rose 0.5% after last week’s 7.2% jump). Powell testifies today and tomorrow at 10am ET, with at least 8 more Fed speakers on deck for the rest of the week including Jefferson (10:00 a.m. ET), Goolsbee (12:25 p.m. ET), Mester (E: 4:00 p.m. ET). More hawkish rhetoric is expected, which may push July hike odds even higher (~74% pre-mkt). There is a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.
In premarket trading, FedEx shares dropped as much as 3.3% after the parcel company gave a 2024 forecast that came in below analyst expectations, while fourth-quarter revenue lagged the consensus. Analysts noted that the macro environment remained tough and the tepid guidance will pressure the stock. Tesla gained 2% premarket, set to extend its 35% rally in June. CEO Elon Musk said the automaker is likely to make a significant investment in India. Meanwhile, China extended tax breaks for consumers buying clean cars through 2027 and auto sales in Europe continued their upward trajectory in May as demand for electric cars outpaced the broader market. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Peloton Interactive shares decline 3.4% in premarket trading after Wolfe Research analyst Zach Morrissey assumed coverage of the exercise-equipment maker and downgraded the firm’s recommendation to underperform from peerperform.
Li Auto leads gains in Chinese electric vehicle makers during US premarket trading, after China extended tax breaks through 2027 for consumers buying clean-energy cars.
Nikola shares rise as much as 9.1% in premarket trading, setting the electric-truck maker up for a ninth day of gains in 10.
Exact Sciences Corp. gains 6% in US premarket trading after the life sciences firm published study results on Tuesday showing its new Cologuard test, used to screen for colorectal cancer, met all study endpoints and “improved every top-line metric.”
Spotify Technology advanced 1.5% in US postmarket trading Tuesday after Wolfe Research analyst Zach Morrissey assumed coverage of the audio streaming company and upgraded the firm’s recommendation to outperform from peerperform.
PureCycle Technologies Inc. rose 11% in postmarket trading after successfully producing the first run of Ultra-Pure Recycled resin from post-industrial recycled material at commercial scale.
Gilts slumped at the open after red hot UK inflation surprised to the upside. Two-year yields are now off the highs but still up 7bps as traders firm up bets on the BOE raising interest rates to 6%. The pound rallied initially but has since turned lower, falling 0.4% versus the greenback. To that point, Pooja Kumra, senior European rates strategist at Toronto Dominion Bank said that rampant price pressures in the UK may sway global central banks against a downshift to easier policy.
“A key risk for markets is whether Powell provides any conditions for the FOMC getting back to their hiking cycle after a pause in June,” Kumra said.
“Everybody is expecting a strong, higher-for-longer message from Powell,” said Derek Halpenny head of research at MUFG of the Fed Chair’s testimony later today. “But it is hard to envisage this message resonating with markets in a dramatically different way to last week.”
Powell prepares to give his semi-annual report to Congress on Wednesday, where he’s expected to reiterate warnings that higher rates may be needed to combat inflation. While Fed policymakers kept interest rates unchanged at their meeting last week, their forecasts imply around two additional quarter-point rate hikes or one half-point increase.
European equities were steady as investors prepared for the congressional testimony of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while hotter-than-expected UK inflation figures kept a lid on sentiment. The Stoxx Europe 600 was down less than 0.1% with the FTSE 100 Index erasing losses of as much as 0.6% to trade flat. Real estate stocks were among the worst performers while automotive shares outperformed after a report showed auto sales in Europe continued their upward trajectory in May. Here are some of the most notable European movers:
Adidas rises as much as 4.4% as UBS upgrades shares to buy, citing early signs of brand inflection driven by its Lifestyle offering, as well as improved margins
Argenx rises as much as 3.3% after the US drug regulator approved Vyvgart Hytrulo subcutaneous injection to treat generalized myasthenia gravis, news analysts say might further boost sales
Husqvarna gains as much as 7.1%, the most since April, after the Swedish lawn-care firm was upgraded to hold from sell at DNB, which said it’s time to focus on the investment case beyond 2023
Halfords shares rise as much as 8%, the most since April, after the car parts and bicycles retailer said recent trading has been solid and Peel Hunt upgraded the stock to buy from add
THG shares jump as much as 11% after the online retailer said it sees a “significant” increase in 1H profitability, a trading update that Jefferies called “encouraging”
AO World shares advance 3.1%, reaching the highest level since April 2022, after Davy upgraded the home- appliances retailer to outperform, saying the firm continues to overdeliver
Beijer Ref falls as much as 9.2% after an offering of 40m class B shares by EQT IX fund priced at SEK140 apiece, representing a discount of 7.2% to Tuesday’s closing price
Aedifica falls as much as 4.9%, as the Belgian real estate firm announced a public offering of approximately €380 million, with new shares to be issued at a discount to Tuesday’s closing price
Kojamo is the the worst performer on the Stoxx 600 Real Estate index after Barclays double-downgraded the shares to underweight on a disappointing occupancy rate recovery
Real estate is overall the worst-performing sector in Europe Wednesday after UK inflation remained higher than expected for a fourth month, stoking bets that interest rates need to keep rising
Pirelli shares fall as much as 2.3% after Oddo BHF downgraded the Italian tiremaker to neutral from outperform, noting that the departure of designated CEO successor Giorgio Bruno is the “last straw”
European delivery companies fall on Wednesday after FedEx gave a 2024 profit outlook below analyst expectations as a drop in package demand offsets the CEO’s $4 billion cost-cutting plan
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were mixed following the negative handover from Wall Street as participants look ahead to Fed Chair Powell’s testimony in Congress.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were lower again with Hong Kong underperforming on tech losses and as sentiment in the mainland remained dampened by the weaker outlook with HSBC cutting China’s GDP forecast to 5.3% from 6.3%, while the PBoC’s continued liquidity efforts and the recent US-China rhetoric did little to spur risk appetite.
Australia’s ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in the commodity-related sectors and the mood was not helped by the deterioration in the Australian Westpac Leading Index.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was initially pressured but then clawed back losses with SoftBank among the biggest gainers during its AGM where CEO Son noted that AI is about to grow explosively and the time has come to shift to offence mode, while there were also comments from BoJ’s Adachi who stuck to the dovish script.
Indian stocks jumped to new all-time highs, driven by a rise in HDFC Bank and Housing Development Finance Corp. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.3% to close at 63,523.15 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.2% to 18,856.85. Strong foreign inflows, improving outlook for corporate earnings and one of the fastest economic growth rates among major economies have also buttressed gains in the stock market. “FPI inflows into India in recent months may simply be driven by the top-down excitement of foreign households around India,” Sanjeev Prasad, co-head of institutional equities at Kotak Institutional Equities said in a note. HDFC Bank contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain, increasing 1.7%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 14 rose, while 16 fell.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar spot index is up 0.1%, while the pound fell after erasing early gains on the back of another shock inflation reading. TSDJPY rose as much as 0.5% reversing yesterday’s drop on intervention jawboning, while USDGBP reversed its earlier 0.3% decline to climb as much as 0.5%, as the pound whipsawed after a hotter-than-expected UK inflation print
In rates, treasuries were slightly cheaper across the curve while gilts slide in a sharp bear-flattening move after UK inflation data surprised to the upside. Treasury yields cheaper by 1bp to 2bp across the curve with spreads broadly remaining within 1bp of Tuesday session close; 10-year yields around 3.75% are cheaper by 2bp on the day with gilts underperforming by additional 6bp in the sector. UK benchmark gilt yields climbed six basis points as traders ramped up bets for further Bank of England interest-rate hikes to a level not seen since the turn of the century a day before a policy meeting. UK 2-year yields off cheapest levels of the day, although remain higher by 12.5bp into early US session after latest UK infaltion shock. US session focus will be on Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony at 10am New York time, before focus shifts to 20-year bond auction later.
In commodities, crude futures are flat with WTI trading near $71.10. Spot gold is little changed around $1,935. Bitcoin rises 2.6%
Bitcoin is firmer on the day and approaching USD 29,000 to the upside whilst Ethereum rose above USD 1,800 earlier in the session.
To the day ahead now, and one of the main highlights will be Chair Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Over at the Senate Banking Committee, there’ll also be Fed nomination hearings for Governor Jefferson to become Vice Chair, Governor Cook for an additional full term as Governor, and for Adriana Kugler to become a Governor. Alongside that, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Goolsbee, and the ECB’s Schnabel, Nagel and Kazimir. On the data side, we’ll get the UK CPI reading for May.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,435.50
MXAP down 0.7% to 166.31
MXAPJ down 1.0% to 523.16
Nikkei up 0.6% to 33,575.14
Topix up 0.5% to 2,295.01
Hang Seng Index down 2.0% to 19,218.35
Shanghai Composite down 1.3% to 3,197.90
Sensex up 0.3% to 63,488.37
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 7,314.91
Kospi down 0.9% to 2,582.63
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 458.87
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.43%
Euro up 0.1% to $1.0930
Brent Futures down 0.3% to $75.71/bbl
Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,934.11
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 102.56
Top Overnight News
Chinese policymakers are facing growing calls for economic stimulus, this time from several prominent state media and top government advisers. The country’s three main state-run securities newspapers ran front-page articles Wednesday saying the central bank is likely to ease monetary policy further, citing well-known economists. BBG
China extended tax breaks for consumers buying clean cars through 2027, estimated to be worth 520 billion yuan ($72.3 billion) in the coming four years, in an effort to bolster its flagging electric-vehicle industry. BBG
China said US President Joe Biden had made a “public political provocation” by referring to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping as a “dictator,” as fresh tensions flared in bilateral ties just days after meetings to stabilize relations. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning called the US leader’s comments “irresponsible” at a regular press briefing in Beijing. BBG
BlackRock’s Larry Fink says investors are shifting money out of Chinese equities and into Japanese ones due to rising geopolitical risks between Beijing and the West. Nikkei
Three Federal Reserve nominees (Philip Jefferson, Adriana Kugler, Lisa Cook) said tackling US inflation would be their top priority if confirmed to roles at the central bank. BBG
UK inflation runs hot in May, with the CPI overshooting the Street on headline (+8.7% vs. the St +8.4% and vs. +8.7% in April) and core (+7.1% vs. the Street +6.8% and vs. +6.8% in April), raising pressure on the BOE ahead of the Thurs meeting. FT
Corporate America is feeling the pinch from the slowdown in Wall Street’s $1.4tn market for junk-rated loans, with a growing list of companies forced either to pay more or abandon borrowing plans. Borrowers have been hit by shifts in the market for collateralized loan obligations, or CLOs, the investment vehicles that own roughly two-thirds of lowly rated US corporate loans. FT
Silicon Valley companies are dumping office space at an accelerating pace, as tech leaders such as Google and Facebook parent Meta Platforms close locations and reassess their commitments to the workplace. WSJ
FedEx gave a 2024 profit outlook below analyst expectations as a drop in package demand offsets Chief Executive Officer Raj Subramaniam’s $4 billion cost-cutting plan. BBG
Money-market funds are placing less cash in a Federal Reserve borrowing program, a sign that efforts to replenish government coffers after the debt-ceiling fight aren’t disrupting markets. Instead, funds are likely stepping up to buy more Treasury bills. WSJ
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asian stocks were mostly subdued following the negative handover from Wall St amid the lack of bullish macro drivers and as participants look ahead to Fed Chair Powell’s testimony in Congress. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in the commodity-related sectors and the mood was not helped by the deterioration in the Australian Westpac Leading Index. Nikkei 225 was initially pressured but then clawed back losses with SoftBank among the biggest gainers during its AGM where CEO Son noted that AI is about to grow explosively and the time has come to shift to offence mode, while there were also comments from BoJ’s Adachi who stuck to the dovish script. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were lower with Hong Kong underperforming on tech losses and as sentiment in the mainland remained dampened by the weaker outlook with HSBC cutting China’s GDP forecast to 5.3% from 6.3%, while the PBoC’s continued liquidity efforts and the recent US-China rhetoric did little to spur risk appetite.
Top Asian News
US President Biden said Chinese President Xi didn’t know where the balloons were and didn’t know a balloon was blown off course. Furthermore, Biden referred to Xi as a dictator and stated that Xi is in a position where he desires a resumption of relations with the US, while Biden also commented that climate envoy John Kerry may travel to China soon, according to Reuters.
EU Summit draft conclusions call on China to engage in global challenges including climate change, biodiversity and debt relief, according to an EU official.
Nasdaq executives plan to visit China this year to restart data partnership talks with companies there about access to economic data desperately sought by Western investors, according to Semafor.
BoJ Governor Ueda says Japan’s economy is picking up; the economy is likely to recover moderately; BoJ will patiently maintain easy monetary policy, according to Reuters.
BoJ Board Member Adachi said inflation is faster than he expected but noted it is too early to tweak easy monetary policy and that their baseline price scenario is bound with uncertainty. Adachi said there are both upside and downside risks to the price outlook and longer-run downside risks appear to be bigger, while he reiterated it is appropriate to continue monetary easing under the YCC framework. Adachi said if the bond market function remains in the current state, then the chance of tweaking YCC in July is low.
BoJ April meeting minutes stated members said it is important to continue with monetary easing and that a few members pointed out that past price increases in commodities and raw materials continued to be passed on to consumer prices with a time lag. BoJ minutes stated that they must support wage moment with easing and wage gains are needed for sustainable inflation goal, while some members said it was appropriate for the Bank to continue with current monetary easing due to the difficulty of assessing the suitability of future wage hikes and developments in inflation expectations.
Japanese PM Kishida said they are to mobilise all policy steps to ensure wage growth; positive moves are emerging in Japan’s economy, according to Reuters.
European bourses trade with little in the way of firm direction with the main macro story of the session thus far coming via UK inflation metrics. US equity futures trade in close proximity to the unchanged mark with the ES holding below the 4450 mark after yesterday’s selling pressure. Equity sectors in Europe have a slight negative bias with Real Estate names lagging peers as UK homebuilders suffer post-UK CPI.
Top European News
The Times’ Shadow MPC voted 6-3 in favour of the BoE raising rates by 50bps this week (vs. market expectations of a 25bps move) in an “aggressive move to fight back against stubbornly high inflation”
UK Chancellor Hunt says will not hesitate in our resolve to support the BoE as it seeks to squeeze inflation out of the economy, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Kazimir said in September a continuation of tightening policy is not certain; does not expect inflation to drop soon, via Reuters.
ECB’s Rehn will apply for leave of absence from the Central Bank if he becomes a presidential candidate, according to Reuters.
FX
DXY is on a firmer footing after finding overnight support at exactly 102.50, with a softer JPY and GBP keeping the index underpinned but a resilient EUR hampering gains.
GBP only knee-jerked higher on the hotter-than-expected CPI before shedding all and more of its gains in what seemed to be a realisation of the adverse economic implications from further and perhaps more aggressive BoE tightening.
Yen is softer as Treasuries retreated and BoJ Board member Adachi stuck to dovish guidance overnight.
Aussie remains top-heavy in the aftermath of not-so hawkish as anticipated RBA minutes yesterday alongside more pronounced Yuan depreciation overnight.
Euro maintains 1.0900+ status with tailwinds from EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY (latter almost matching the new midweek y-t-d peak)
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1795 vs exp. 7.1802 (prev. 7.1596)
Fixed Income
Bunds complete a full recovery from worst levels with the help of strong demand for long-end German issuance.
Gilts saw a remarkable bounce after gapping lower at the open as markets ponder the economic implications of further BoE tightening.
US Treasuries have also regained composure ahead of Fed Chair Powell alongside several other Fed speakers and supply on the calendar.
Commodities
WTI and Brent August futures see sideways trade in crude futures, with gains hampered by the hotter-than-expected UK CPI data ahead of tomorrow’s BoE announcement.
Spot gold consolidates ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and after the yellow metal’s hefty losses yesterday upon a breach of the 100 DMA.
Base metals are mixed amid the indecisive tone in the market, with copper prices relatively contained.
Russia’s Kremlin said there are no grounds to extend the Black Sea Grain Deal because it’s not being implemented, according to Reuters.
Geopolitics
Russian Defence Ministry says it has thwarted an attempt by Kyiv to launch an attack on the Moscow region with drones; all drones were shot down, according to Tass and Ria.
Russia’s Navy is to receive 2 new nuclear submarines by year-end, according to TASS.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs commented on the US’ Taiwan position in which it stated that the US has distorted its political promise to China.
Shanghai Cyberspace Regulator says they have summoned three companies including Starbucks (SBUX) and Shake Shack (SHAK) for collecting excessive personal information, according to Reuters.
US event calendar
07:00: June MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 7.2%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Tonight I’m going to see the Lion King……… performed by 7-year-olds. It will be a case of “Can you feel the out of tune singing and forgotten lines tonight”. Maisie is Timon the Meerkat and the 5-year-old twins are part of the choir with no evidence that they know many of the words. So like with the ChatGPT webinar there is plenty that can go wrong for our family today. It truly could be the longest day as we hit the summer solstice.
With markets largely taking a “hukana matata” attitude in recent weeks to all that has been thrown at it, some strains have appeared in the last few days. The S&P 500 (-0.47%) saw a moderate decline, with the equal weight index (-0.91%) again under-performing. This was the first back-to-back losses since the last full week of May, which shows the recent momentum. This wasn’t just a catch-up to Monday’s losses, since Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.59%) lost ground for a second day running as well. These declines were evident across several asset classes, with HY credit and energy commodities seeing moderate losses of their own recheck. In fact, the only assets that managed to hold their ground were a few safe havens like sovereign bonds, with yields on 10yr bunds (-11.2bps) seeing their largest daily decline since April.
Whilst little was driving weaker sentiment over the last 48 hours, news flow should begin to pick up again today. Just after this arrives in your inbox, we’ll see UK inflation which given all the news flow about domestic rates and mortgages of late will be a must watch and could have 2-way spillover effects for global bonds and risk. Last month saw a big upside surprise that was then exacerbated by some very strong employment data, leading investors to ratchet up their expectations of future rate hikes (2yr yields c.+85bps since). For today’s reading, our UK economist is expecting a modest decline in headline inflation to +8.5%, having been at +8.7% in April.
Later on, we’ve got an appearance from Fed Chair Powell in front of the House Financial Services Committee at 15:00 London time, and then an appearance before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow. That’s part of the regular semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress and follows the FOMC’s decision last week to pause their rate hikes after 10 consecutive increases.
Given that the decision was only a week ago, it’s likely that Powell will stick to his main themes from the press conference. But it’ll be interesting to see how he frames the Fed’s decision last week, as the decision to pause rate hikes came alongside upgrades to their inflation and growth forecasts, as well as a signal in the dot plot that 2 further hikes were expected by December. Powell himself has said that he expects July to be a “live” meeting, and futures are pricing in a 74% chance that the Fed will deliver a hike next month. But there remains scepticism in markets that the Fed will be able to follow through on that second hike, with current terminal pricing only pointing to 23bps more hikes, rather than the 50bps indicated by the dot plot.
Ahead of that testimony, the yield curve grew increasingly inverted, with the 2s10s Treasury curve (-1.5bps) closing at -97bps. That’s the most inverted it’s been since SVB’s collapse, with only 3 days back in early March even more inverted over the last 41 years. There were fresh records set at other points on the curve. For instance, the 1s30s curve inverted to -144bps, which is the most in available data on Bloomberg back to 2002. Aside from the inversions themselves, yields fell in absolute terms across all maturities too, with the US 10yr yield coming down -4.1bps to 3.72%. Overnight, they have pushed back up 2bps to 3.74%.
Those US moves were fairly muted given the previous day’s holiday, but in Europe there was a much sharper decline in yields as they retraced Monday’s moves. That meant that yields on 10yr bunds (-10.6bps), BTPs (-9.1bps) and OATs (-10.8bps) all fell back. And when it came to German sovereign debt specifically, there was a big milestone as the 2s10s curve inverted beyond its low before SVB to -70.2bps, a level we haven’t seen since 1992. Here in the UK, we saw some of the most extreme moves once again, with 10yr gilts (-15.5bps) seeing a sharp move lower after their recent increase.
When it came to equities, as discussed at the top, the day was a negative one, with the S&P 500 down -0.47% despite paring its initial morning fall of almost 1%. The decline was broad-based across the main sector groups, with Energy (-2.29%) seeing the biggest losses amidst commodity price declines, but 21 of the 24 S&P industry groups lost at least some ground on the day. It was much the same story for the Dow Jones index (-0.71%), while the NASDAQ (-0.16%) fared better mostly thanks to Tesla (+5.43%), which gained following news that electric truck manufacturer Rivian would adopt Tesla’s charging standard. And in Europe it was another weakish day, with the STOXX 600 (-0.59%) and the DAX (-0.55%) down for a second consecutive session.
Asian equity markets are largely trading lower this morning, with Chinese related stocks leading losses. The Hang Seng (-1.91%) is sharply down, extending losses for the third consecutive session while the CSI (-0.70%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.41%) are also sliding as China’s more modest rate cut yesterday is weighing on the sentiment. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-0.65%) is also trading in the red while the Nikkei (+0.40%) is bucking the trend, reversing its opening losses. Outside of Asia, US stock futures are fluctuating with those on the S&P 500 (-0.03%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.04%) just below flat. A profit warning from FedEx after the bell hasn’t damaged overall sentiment.
Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s April meeting indicated that several board members agreed that the central bank should continue to keep ultra-low interest rates. The meeting was the first to be held under the leadership of the new BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo. Otherwise, the minutes revealed that one of the nine board members suggested that the bank should reconsider its policy of keeping bond yields low.
Amidst the negativity yesterday, one bright spot came from the US housing data for May. That showed housing starts leapt up to an annualised rate of 1.631m (vs. 1.4m expected), which is the highest they’ve been in 13 months. Furthermore, the one-month increase of +21.7% was the largest in a single month since October 2016, so these weren’t the sort of moves you regularly see. At the same time, building permits came in at a 7-month high of 1.491m (vs. 1.425m expected). The data adds to signs that the housing market has been stabilising, and on Monday we also saw the NAHB’s housing market index improve for a 6th consecutive month. With housing having been the sector most immediately affected following the initial hiking cycles last year, recent signs of its stabilisation may raise new questions over the transmission of central bank tightening into the economy.
To the day ahead now, and one of the main highlights will be Chair Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Over at the Senate Banking Committee, there’ll also be Fed nomination hearings for Governor Jefferson to become Vice Chair, Governor Cook for an additional full term as Governor, and for Adriana Kugler to become a Governor. Alongside that, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Goolsbee, and the ECB’s Schnabel, Nagel and Kazimir. On the data side, we’ll get the UK CPI reading for May.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
Equities flat, GBP sinks on CPI, JPY falls on dovish BoJ; Fed’s Powell testimony due – Newsquawk US Market Open
WEDNESDAY, JUN 21, 2023 – 06:06 AM
European bourses are indecisive with the main macro story of the session thus far coming via UK inflation metrics.
GBP only knee-jerked higher on the hotter-than-expected CPI before shedding all and more of its gains on economic implications of further BoE tightening.
DXY is firmer pre-Powell whilst the JPY is softer following more dovish BoJ commentary.
US Treasuries have regained composure whilst Bunds saw a full recovery and Gilts trimmed a bulk of opening losses.
Russian Defence Ministry says it has thwarted an attempt by Kyiv to launch an attack on the Moscow region with drones.
Looking ahead, highlights include BoC Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Jefferson, Cook, Goolsbee, Mester & ECB’s Schnabel, supply from the US.
DXY is on a firmer footing after finding overnight support at exactly 102.50, with a softer JPY and GBP keeping the index underpinned but a resilient EUR hampering gains.
GBP only knee-jerked higher on the hotter-than-expected CPI before shedding all and more of its gains in what seemed to be a realisation of the adverse economic implications from further and perhaps more aggressive BoE tightening.
Yen is softer as Treasuries retreated and BoJ Board member Adachi stuck to dovish guidance overnight.
Aussie remains top-heavy in the aftermath of not-so hawkish as anticipated RBA minutes yesterday alongside more pronounced Yuan depreciation overnight.
Euro maintains 1.0900+ status with tailwinds from EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY (latter almost matching the new midweek y-t-d peak)
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1795 vs exp. 7.1802 (prev. 7.1596)
WTI and Brent August futures see sideways trade in crude futures, with gains hampered by the hotter-than-expected UK CPI data ahead of tomorrow’s BoE announcement.
Spot gold consolidates ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and after the yellow metal’s hefty losses yesterday upon a breach of the 100 DMA.
Base metals are mixed amid the indecisive tone in the market, with copper prices relatively contained.
Russia’s Kremlin said there are no grounds to extend the Black Sea Grain Deal because it’s not being implemented, according to Reuters.
Fed Vice Chair nominee Jefferson (voter) said in prepared remarks for the Senate confirmation hearing that he remains focused on returning inflation to 2% and that they must remain attentive to all of inflation, banking-sector stress, and geopolitical uncertainty. Jefferson added that the US banking system is sound and resilient but he remains attuned to any threats to its stability, while he also noted that inflation has started to abate, according to Reuters.
Fed Board nominee Cook (voter) said in prepared remarks for the Senate hearing that she is focused on inflation until the job is done, while she added that the US economy is at a critical juncture and she has consistently supported the Fed’s work to lower inflation.
Fed Board nominee Kugler said in prepared remarks for the Senate confirmation hearing that she is deeply committed to setting monetary policy to reduce inflation and promote maximum employment. Kugler also stated that high inflation hurts workers and businesses alike, while she added it is important to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target.
Amazon (AMZN) says its Prime Day event will be on July 11th and 12th, according to Reuters
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
The Times’ Shadow MPC voted 6-3 in favour of the BoE raising rates by 50bps this week (vs. market expectations of a 25bps move) in an “aggressive move to fight back against stubbornly high inflation”
UK Chancellor Hunt says will not hesitate in our resolve to support the BoE as it seeks to squeeze inflation out of the economy, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Kazimir said in September a continuation of tightening policy is not certain; does not expect inflation to drop soon, via Reuters.
ECB’s Rehn will apply for leave of absence from the Central Bank if he becomes a presidential candidate, according to Reuters.
NOTABLE DATA
UK CPI YY (May) 8.7% vs. Exp. 8.4% (Prev. 8.7%)
UK CPI MM (May) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 1.2%)
UK Core CPI MM (May) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 1.3%)
UK Core CPI YY (May) 7.1% vs. Exp. 6.8% (Prev. 6.8%)
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is firmer on the day and approaching USD 29,000 to the upside whilst Ethereum rose above USD 1,800 earlier in the session.
GEOPOLITICS
Russian Defence Ministry says it has thwarted an attempt by Kyiv to launch an attack on the Moscow region with drones; all drones were shot down, according to Tass and Ria.
Russia’s Navy is to receive 2 new nuclear submarines by year-end, according to TASS.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs commented on the US’ Taiwan position in which it stated that the US has distorted its political promise to China.
Shanghai Cyberspace Regulator says they have summoned three companies including Starbucks (SBUX) and Shake Shack (SHAK) for collecting excessive personal information, according to Reuters.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the negative handover from Wall St amid the lack of bullish macro drivers and as participants look ahead to Fed Chair Powell’s testimony in Congress.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in the commodity-related sectors and the mood was not helped by the deterioration in the Australian Westpac Leading Index.
Nikkei 225 was initially pressured but then clawed back losses with SoftBank among the biggest gainers during its AGM where CEO Son noted that AI is about to grow explosively and the time has come to shift to offence mode, while there were also comments from BoJ’s Adachi who stuck to the dovish script.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were lower with Hong Kong underperforming on tech losses and as sentiment in the mainland remained dampened by the weaker outlook with HSBC cutting China’s GDP forecast to 5.3% from 6.3%, while the PBoC’s continued liquidity efforts and the recent US-China rhetoric did little to spur risk appetite.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
US President Biden said Chinese President Xi didn’t know where the balloons were and didn’t know a balloon was blown off course. Furthermore, Biden referred to Xi as a dictator and stated that Xi is in a position where he desires a resumption of relations with the US, while Biden also commented that climate envoy John Kerry may travel to China soon, according to Reuters.
EU Summit draft conclusions call on China to engage in global challenges including climate change, biodiversity and debt relief, according to an EU official.
Nasdaq executives plan to visit China this year to restart data partnership talks with companies there about access to economic data desperately sought by Western investors, according to Semafor.
BoJ Governor Ueda says Japan’s economy is picking up; the economy is likely to recover moderately; BoJ will patiently maintain easy monetary policy, according to Reuters.
BoJ Board Member Adachi said inflation is faster than he expected but noted it is too early to tweak easy monetary policy and that their baseline price scenario is bound with uncertainty. Adachi said there are both upside and downside risks to the price outlook and longer-run downside risks appear to be bigger, while he reiterated it is appropriate to continue monetary easing under the YCC framework. Adachi said if the bond market function remains in the current state, then the chance of tweaking YCC in July is low.
BoJ April meeting minutes stated members said it is important to continue with monetary easing and that a few members pointed out that past price increases in commodities and raw materials continued to be passed on to consumer prices with a time lag. BoJ minutes stated that they must support wage moment with easing and wage gains are needed for sustainable inflation goal, while some members said it was appropriate for the Bank to continue with current monetary easing due to the difficulty of assessing the suitability of future wage hikes and developments in inflation expectations.
Japanese PM Kishida said they are to mobilise all policy steps to ensure wage growth; positive moves are emerging in Japan’s economy, according to Reuters.
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 42.46 PTS OR 1.31% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 388.73 PTS OR 1.98% /The Nikkei closed UP 186.23 OR 0.56% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.57 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1884 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.1896 /Oil DOWN TO 71.16 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 75.78 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA/USA
After he sends the idiot Blinken to cool the hardening rhetoric between China and the uSA, Biden labels Xi a dictator. That went over well
(zerohedge)
‘Blatant Provocation’: China Lashes Back After Biden Labels Xi A Dictator
WEDNESDAY, JUN 21, 2023 – 09:10 AM
On Wednesday China lashed back at US President Joe Biden for his earlier referring to Chinese leader Xi Jinping as a dictator. The timing of Biden’s Tuesday night remarks, issued at a fundraiser, were especially awkward given he had just dispatched Secretary of State Blinken for a two day visit to China where he met with Xi.
“That’s a great embarrassment for dictators. When they didn’t know what happened,” Biden said while speaking on recent tensions at the California event, and while referring to the Chinese spy balloon shootdown in early February.
The irony, obvious and yet perhaps lost on Biden, is that Blinken’s trip was a desperate attempt of administration to rescue spiraling US-China relations, and with Biden’s one single “dictator” comment these efforts have likely come to nothing.
China’s foreign ministry blasted Biden’s dictator comment as “extremely absurd and irresponsible.”
FM spokesperson Mao Ning said Biden’s words “go totally against facts and seriously violate diplomatic protocol, and severely infringe on China’s political dignity.”
“It is a blatant political provocation. China expresses strong dissatisfaction and opposition,” Mao told a daily briefing. “The U.S. remarks are extremely absurd and irresponsible.”
Biden’s full remarks on Xi being caught ‘unaware’ by the spy balloon incident were as follows:
“That’s what’s a great embarrassment for dictators, when they didn’t know what happened. That wasn’t supposed to be going where it was. It was blown off course up through Alaska and then down through the United States. And he didn’t know about it,” Biden said. “When it got shot down, he was very embarrassed. He denied it was even there.”
This has prompted the Chinese foreign ministry to repeat its rejection of Washington’s narrative regarding the balloon and its purpose:
Mao reiterated China’s contention that the balloon was for meteorological research and had been accidentally blown off course.
“The U.S. should have handled it in a calm and professional manner,” she said. “However, the U.S. distorted facts and used forces to hype up the incident, fully revealing its nature of bullying and hegemony.”
Meanwhile, also on Wednesday China is engaged in some muscle-flexing off its coast, sailing its Shandong aircraft carrier and a grouping of warships through the Taiwan Strait.
Per regional media, “Beijing has ramped up sea and air incursions in recent years around Taiwan, which it claims as its own territory, but the deployment of the Shandong through the waterway separating the island from China is a rarity.”
END
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK
British pound falls as its core inflation unexpectedly soars to 31 year high up 8.7% y/y/
(zerohedge)
Cable Slides As Core UK Inflation Unexpectedly Soars To 31 Year High
WEDNESDAY, JUN 21, 2023 – 08:16 AM
UK inflation printed hotter than expected for the 4th straight month in May, with headline CPI up 8.7% YoY (well above the 8.4% exp), and core inflation, excluding food and energy, soaring unexpectedly to a 31-year high of 7.1%…
Source: Bloomberg
In the detail of the figures, price rises again easily offset price cuts with significant increases in the cost of air fares, package holidays, live music events, games and toys. These were partially offset by falling prices for petrol and diesel.
Food price inflation dipped from 19 per cent in April to 18.3 per cent in May, but the cost of food itself in supermarkets still rose 0.9 per cent in the month of May alone.
The hot inflation print piles more pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to act and act aggressively when it meets tomorrow with the terminal rate now above 6.00% within a year and June expectations are now at 33bps (i.e. around a 50% chance of a 50bps hike)
“There is a strong argument for a 50-basis point hike at tomorrow’s Bank of England’s meeting,” said Charles White Thomson, CEO at Saxo UK.
“The bank needs to take the initiative quickly. The risk for further policy failure is real, and the stakes are getting increasingly high.”
Source: Bloomberg
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt acknowledged the numbers were difficult for families and businesses across the UK and challenging for the government.
“We will not hesitate in our resolve to support the Bank of England as it seeks to squeeze inflation out of our economy, while also providing targeted support with the cost of living,” he said.
Interestingly, despite the surge in rate-hike expectations, and rise in short-dated gilt yields (highest since 2008) Cable weakened…
Source: Bloomberg
…because, as Stuart Cole, chief macro economist at Equiti Capital in London, explained: “It is looking increasingly likely that it will require a recession to finally get the inflation genie back into the bottle.”
Additionally, as The FT reports, adding to fears for the UK outlook, net government debt rose above 100 per cent of gross domestic product for the first time since 1961, separate data on Wednesday showed.
END
END
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE//USA
Pentagon supposedly made a $6 billion accounting error clearing the path for more aid to Ukraine
(zerohedge)
Pentagon Says It Made $6 Billion “Accounting Error”, Clearing More Aid For Ukraine
TUESDAY, JUN 20, 2023 – 06:30 PM
How could this possibly happen?
Due to a massive accounting error, which happened just four weeks after a $3 billion accounting error, the value of weapons supplied to Ukraine by the United States was overstated by $6.2 billion over the past two years, according to AP.
Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said that a detailed review of the accounting error found that replacement costs were recorded for the equipment, not the actual book value of items pulled from Pentagon stocks and sent to Ukraine, adding that final calculations reveal a $3.6 billion error in the current fiscal year, and $2.6 billion in the 2022 FY, which ended last Sept. 30.
And of course, AP provides the ‘silver lining’;
As a result, the department now has additional money in its coffers to use to support Ukraine as it pursues its counteroffensive against Russia. And it come as the fiscal year is wrapping up and congressional funding was beginning to dwindle.
“It’s just going to go back into the pot of money that we have allocated” for the future Pentagon stock drawdowns, according to Sigh.
The United States has approved four rounds of aid to Ukraine totaling around $113 billion – some of which went towards replenishing US military equipment used on the front lines. In December, Congress approved the latest round of funding, totaling around $45 billion for Ukraine and NATO allies.
The ‘extra’ $6.2 billion ‘found’ for Ukraine comes as the country begins its counteroffensive against Russia in an attempt to reclaim territory held by the Kremlin’s forces since February 2022. Thus far, ‘the counteroffensive has come up against heavily mined terrain and reinforced defensive fortifications,’ according to Ukraine’s commander of the armed forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
US officials still haven’t provided exact totals for the amount of money that remains for Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative drawdowns, which provides longer-term funding for the purchase of weapons, including large air defense systems.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
It looks like the Ukraine counteroffensive is failing!
(zerohedge)
The Failing Ukraine Counteroffensive & The Peace That Could Have Been
WEDNESDAY, JUN 21, 2023 – 02:00 AM
It’s safe to say that if the Ukrainian counteroffensive was currently making significant gains, everyone would know about it. Not only would mainstream media headlines feature celebratory daily news of any big gains on the ground, but it would not be the case that the question of how Ukraine is fairing would actually be slipping from the headlines (as it is now), no longer a prime focus in public discourse.
David Sachs has observed of the current state of the counteroffensive that, “With each passing day, it’s becoming clear that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is failing to achieve any of its originally stated objectives.” At the same time escalation between Russia and NATO grows by the day, seemingly with no off-ramp, now also with tactical nukes stationed in Belarus.Image via Yahoo
He points out, “Recall: the Biden administration’s bet was that the counteroffensive would roll back Russian territorial gains, cut the land bridge to Crimea, and force Russia to the negotiating table. That is almost certainly not going to happen. On the contrary, a stalemate is more likely, or even that Russia will take more territory and win the war, as Mearsheimer has predicted.”
“What are Biden’s options now?” Sachs asks. He describes the very dangerous corner that Washington and its allies have painted themselves into in the below as follows [emphasis ZH]…
* * *
Either escalate or admit defeat. In preparation for NATO’s Vilnius Summit, Blinken has been floating a proposal to give “Israel status” to Ukraine. This means multi-year security guarantees including weapons, ammunition and money that would continue even if Biden loses the next election.
This is not what the American people signed up for. Many Americans supported the $100+ billion in appropriations for Ukraine believing it was a one-time deal to reverse Russian territorial gains. If they had been told that it was the basis for an annual appropriation in a new Forever War, they would have preferred an alternative, especially if they had known that one was available.
The Peace That Could Have Been
New evidence is emerging that a peace deal was achievable at the beginning of the war. At a recent meeting with the African delegation, Putin showed the draft of an outline or preliminary agreement signed by the Ukrainian delegation at Istanbul in April 2022. It provided that Russia would pull back to pre-war lines if Ukraine would agree not to join NATO (but Ukraine could receive security guarantees from the West). This document has not been publicly released yet, but no one seriously contests that it exists.
The only dispute is over what happened subsequently; Ukraine (via reporting in Reuters) contends the deal fell apart. However, the availability of a deal based on Ukrainian Neutrality is consistent with previous comments from Naftali Bennett, who said a deal was attainable but rejected by the West.
Why would the West do this? Ukrainska Pravda (UP), a pro-Ukraine publication, reported in May 2022: “As soon as the Ukrainian negotiators and Abramovich/Medinsky [the Russian negotiators], following the outcome of Istanbul, had agreed on the structure of a future possible agreement in general terms, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson appeared in Kyiv almost without warning.”
Johnson brought two simple messages to Kyiv. The first is that Putin is a war criminal; he should be pressured, not negotiated with. And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they are not. We can sign (an agreement) with you (Ukraine), but not with him. Anyway, he will screw everyone over”, is how one of Zelenskyy’s close associates summed up the essence of Johnson’s visit.
Johnson (who must have been speaking not just for himself but for the Western alliance) wanted to pressure Putin, not make peace, and promised new weapons systems if Ukraine would keep fighting. At the time of UP’s article, Ukraine appeared to be doing well, so UP portrayed Zelensky’s decision to accept Johnson’s offer as a smart gamble. Now, in hindsight, it looks like a disaster.
Afghanistan Redux?
I know some of you may find it hard to believe that the realities on the ground are so at odds with the mainstream media’s coverage. But it’s worth recalling that the American public was assured for two decades that we were winning in Afghanistan. All of that reporting was revealed as a pack of lies when the Afghan army that we were supposedly “standing up” collapsed within a matter of weeks.
At that point, the media stopped reporting on Afghanistan, just like it had stopped reporting on Iraq, instead of holding anyone accountable. Unfortunately, it looks like we’re headed for a similar kind of outcome in Ukraine.
The only question is when, and how long Biden will be able to perpetuate a proxy war of choice that could have easily been avoided.
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Russia Thwarts Another Drone Attack On Moscow; Zelensky Admits ‘Slow’ Counteroffensive
WEDNESDAY, JUN 21, 2023 – 10:20 AM
Russia has announced Wednesday that three drones were sent to the capital of Moscow from Ukraine, but were successfully downed by anti-air measures.
The three drones, which traveled a lengthy distance deep into the country (still somewhat of a rarity amid recent growing cross-border action) were brought down “by electronic warfare” and with no casualties reported, according to TASS.
In a Telegram post, Russia’s Ministry of Defense blasted the “Kyiv regime” for its “unsuccessful attempt at a terrorist attack”.Via Reuters
Two of the drones had approached what Moscow region governor Andrei Vorobyov described as a local military warehouse and storage area.
In May a major drone attack on the capital damaged residential buildings, sparking fury in the Kremlin. The Kremlin itself had previously come under direct drone attack early that month in what Russian officials dubbed an “assassination attempt” on Putin.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine there are signs the counteroffensive may already be stalling. Zelensky has recently confirmed his forces have undertaken “counteroffensive, defensive actions” across the country.
But in the middle of this week he’s admitted “slower than desired” progress. According to BBC:
President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged battlefield progress has been “slower than desired”, weeks into Ukraine’s military offensive to recapture areas occupied by Russia.
“Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie and expect results now. It’s not,” he told the BBC. “What’s at stake is people’s lives.”
Ukraine says its counter-offensive has reclaimed eight villages so far in the southern region of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk to the east.
Mr Zelensky said the military push was not going easily because 200,000 sq km (77,220 sq miles) of Ukrainian territory had been mined by Russian forces.
“Whatever some might want, including attempts to pressure us, with all due respect, we will advance on the battlefield the way we deem best,” Zelensky added.
This week, new footage showing the sabotaged Nord Stream 2 pipeline has emerged:
Some war observers have speculated that the worse that Ukrainian forces perform on the battlefield, the more likely we are to witness stepped-up, increasingly brazen cross-border attacks and covert sabotage operations inside Russian territory and against its infrastructure.
end
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/
GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES
end
GLOBAL ISSUES//GENERAL
END
VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
Marc Morano on Twitter: “24 year veteran CDC lab director blows the whistle on the ‘pandemic,’ a hysteria driven by junk science https://t.co/a4LTSPV5ta” / Twitter
Malone, Weissman, Karikó et al. have escaped answering serious questions because the Freedom Fighter media like EPOCH’s head is so far up Malone’s anus; maybe one day, journalism will return
Over to you, Jan. Your depth is excellent, hopefully you disengage from the embargo on questioning Malone et al. and return to your fantastic roots of pure journalism. We await.
Anytime you wish Robert Malone, text me, I will ask you the questions your dog and pony show doctors and scientists (whom I worked with prior) will not, anytime. And every dollar, for we know how you love to raise money, I will ask you to commit to donate to all those vaccine injured and killed (their families) likely by your and Weissman and Karikó et al. mRNA technology that is at the heart of the fraud deadly COVID gene injection. If you wish, we can get someone else to probe you, to your satisfaction. Name place and time.
Daily Skeptic did fine scolarship here too, I commend.
‘Leading doctors have concluded that the death of legendary Australian cricketer Shane Warne was likely precipitated by the Covid mRNA vaccine that he had taken approximately nine months prior to his sudden cardiac death. His post mortem findings revealed coronary atherosclerosis.
Cardiologists Dr. Aseem Malhotra and Dr. Chris Neil, who is President of the Australian Medical Professionals Society, have concluded that the Covid vaccine can cause a rapid acceleration of coronary disease especially in those that may already have undetected mild disease. Dr. Malhotra has further concerns that the Covid mRNA vaccines may be masking angina by damaging heart nerves, resulting in patients not experiencing the chest pain that typically precedes a diagnosis of severe blockages in the heart arteries, leading to detection not occurring until it’s too late, with the first symptoms often presenting as a cardiac arrest.
Shane Warne was found unresponsive in his hotel room in Thailand in March last year.
The doctors have called for the immediate suspension of Covid mRNA vaccines globally pending an investigation into serious side-effects, including late onset heart attack and sudden cardiac death.
Shane Warne’s best friend, the former international cricketer Dimitri Mascerenhas, has supported the calls, saying Shane himself “wouldn’t want others to be harmed”.’
And you sycophantic ass licker doctors and scientists in Malone’s camp, stop attacking TWC, stop attacking McCullough and Foster and I etc. Go do some real work. TWC is one of the few companies making a difference. Stop threatening TWC to black ball me, won’t happen. Stop going at Malik and Aseem because they are talking to us about TWC Europe’s role and larger. Start by asking right questions and getting off the Malone reservation of misdirection and horses and farms and bull shit and return to objective science and inquiry. Maybe then I will re-respect you, until then, you are a bunch of idiots, embarassing yourselves for the public ‘gets it’. Its always about money for you, we know. Fame, ego, stage. Thats why I divorced your sorry asses. Won’t get me on a stage with your money whores any time soon. I know who you are and have been playing with you. Playing with you. I hold regard for met many of your families so out of respect for them, not you, you money whore. But by God, you come at me, and I will open you media wise.
Oh, what did you just whishper, “we got to go after Paul, he is dropping bombs on us, he has no respect for us”…well, I have none, zero, and I invite you to come at me, I wish to write openly about each one of you. I can and will. I will punish you ppenly…as you seek to punish me. Take your best shot at me!
silent on antidote? Why did they not make one? What did they know about the role of DNA plasmids (bacterial DNA making spike)? mRNA reverse transcription to DNA? Leaving injection site? When, What?
Did these ‘inventors’ make money on any patents? were they incentivized to remain silent? direct or indirect? I find this outrageous these people have made money using tax payer money to bring a technology that killed us?
Sit back and think what I just wrote?
The deaths of all the poeple post gene injection that you write and speak about falls at the feet of Karikó, Malone, Weissman et al. and don’t bring that bullocks Malone et al. try to tell you that Pfizer ‘modified’ it with molecular caps and methylated pseudo-uracil etc. That’s bull shit. It is their baby as they said, they could have stopped the deaths with suitable antidote. The question is, why not?
Damar Hamlin for 10 minutes on the field? I think he is. Aseem is a friend of mine and of The Wellness Company (TWC) (website: TWC.health), will be nice collaborations
Health Advisory and Recovery Team (HART); Myocarditis is attributable to injection not infection & What has been diagnosed may represent wider harm that is yet to be properly measured
FBI Displays Juneteenth Flag Outside Washington HeadquartersREAD MORE…
LATEST NEWS:
28-Year-Old Rising MMA Star in ‘Peak Physical Condition’ Hospitalized After Cardiac Arrest | by Cristina Laila Read more… The Winner of ‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’ Accuses Conservatives of Using Children as Shields Read more… Pres. Trump To Brett Baier: “I Won 2020 By A LOT, Ok?” Read more… Army Unleashes New Assault Vehicle – Firepower of Giant Tanks But a Fraction of the Size Read more… ‘He’s a Hypocrite’: Alvin Bragg Slammed with 2 Lawsuits at Once Over Trump Indictment Read more… ‘I’M NO FAN’: Trump Torches Fox News On Their Own Network During Heated Interview With Bret Baier Read more.. .Democrat Rep. Physically Pulls Joe Biden Across the Stage After His Speech in California (VIDEO) | by Cristina Laila Read more. ..White House Aides Admit They Have No idea What Biden is Talking AboutRead more…
VACCINE IMPACT//
MICHAEL EVERY
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR:1.0925 UP 0.0005
USA/ YEN 141.77 UP 0.424 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2730 DOWN 0.0053
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3214 DOWN .0011 (CDN DOLLAR UP 11 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 42.66 PTS OR 1.31%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 388.73 PTS OR 1.98%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.57% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 388.73 PTS OR 1.98%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 42.66 PTS OR 1.31%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .57%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 186.23 PTS OR 0.56%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1935.20
silver:$23.07
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 102.15 UP 3 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s close.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE (CLOSED UP (7.1795)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.1814)
TURKISH LIRA: 23.56 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.375…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 6 in basis points from TUESDAY at 3.782% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.864 UP 6 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 10.13 points or 0.24%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 88.19 PTS OR 0.55%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 33.20PTS OR 0.46%
Spain IBEX DOWN 3.41 PTS OR 0.04%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 33.26 PTS OR 0.12%
WTI Oil price 72.92 12: EST
Brent Oil: 77.15 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 83.98 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 81//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4335 UP 3 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.448 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0986 UP 0.0066 OR 66 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2775 UP .0009 or 9 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.4435% UP 8 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 141.80 UP 0.458 //YEN DOWN 46 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3163 DOWN .0062 CDN dollar, UP 62 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 72.55
Brent OIL: 77.10
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 3.715%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS PTS to 3.796%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 1/2 PTS AT 4.715%
USA dollar index: 102.67 DOWN 45 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 23.56 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 83.98 UP 0 AND 81/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 102.35 PTS OR 0.30%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 202.70 PTS OR 1.35%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.15 DOWN 0.73 PTS (5.26)%
GLD: $179,49 DOWN 0.26 OR 0.14%
SLV/ $20.84 DOWN .42 OR 1.98%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
‘Hawkish’ FedSpeak Hits Big-Tech; Bitcoin Soars As The Buck Breaks Down
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, JUN 21, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Despite Powell’s reiteration of the ‘hawkish pause’ with two more rate-hikes a “pretty good guess” if the economy continues as they expect, rate-hike expectations were barely changed today with the longer-end of the STIRs market pushing higher (still pricing in rate-cuts though)..
Source: Bloomberg
The Atlanta Fed’s Bostic confirmed his “baseline is to hold rate [high] through year-end,” adding that he doesn’t expect rate-cuts for “most of 2024.”
The market is pricing in one rate-hike and one rate-cut back by Jan 2024…
Source: Bloomberg
The Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee also noted that last week’s decision to hold rates was “a close call.”
But despite the modest hawkish shift, the dollar dived after recovering back to pre-Powell levels…
Source: Bloomberg
Nasdaq underperformed as Small Caps led but with an hour to go, selling restarted as Bostic commented on higher rates for longer leaving the big tech index down over 1%. S&P underperformed The Dow, closing near the lows of the day…
0-DTE traders were aggressively buying calls into the morning decline in Nasdaq
The Russell 2000 outperformed the Nasdaq 100, with the ratio between the two finding resistance…
It was deja vu all over again in ‘short-squeeze’ land as early selling was caught as Europe closed and ‘most shorted’ stocks were squeeze back (but not green)
Source: Bloomberg
‘Long Duration’ – unprofitable – tech stocks sold off once again (but bounced once again), back to 2 week lows…
Source: Bloomberg
AI tumbled again, erasing the post-earnings spike…
We note this rollover in AI-tech-stocks is occurring at an ‘interesting’ time…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin topped $30,000 for the first time since April 26th (extending gains ignited by news of a Citadel-sponsored exchange)…
Oil surged today, dragging WTI back above $72.50 – its highest in two weeks…
Which pulled Energy stocks higher (rotating out of long-duration tech – which may have been helped by Biden’s “dictator” comments about Xi)…
Source: Bloomberg
And the world and his pet rabbit has given up on the energy trade (Goldman notes Energy is among the most net sold sectors in the past month both globally and in the US on the Prime book, driven by long-and-short sales)…
Source: Goldman
A well-bid 20-year auction put some much-needed lipstick on an otherwise pig-like day for bonds are UK inflation and Powell’s hawkishness sent yields higher. By the close, Treasuries were practically unch across the curve with 30Y -5bps on the week (while 2Y is unch)…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold extended yesterday’s losses intraday, falling to its lowest in over 3 months below bouncing back barely into the green…
Finally, we note that Economic Surprise Indices are diverging notably with Europe deep in negative territory, China tumbling, and US rebounding modestly…
Source: Bloomberg
Which is ironic since Europe is hiking and US is pausing (with China easing the whole time to no avail).
b) THIS AFTERNOON TRADING/
end
END
i c Morning/
end
II) USA DATA/
END
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
FLORIDA
Florida affordability drops due to the flood of USA citizens leaving high cost blue states. Also higher interest rates is putting a damper on affordability.
(zerohedge)
Florida Affordability Drops After Flood Of Transplants, High Interest Rates
TUESDAY, JUN 20, 2023 – 09:00 PM
Thanks to a flood of Northeasterners and conservatives fleeing blue states, home ownership in Florida has become prohibitively expensive for many prospective newcomers to the Sunshine State.
According to Bloomberg, a combination of supercharged demand pushing home prices sky high, and soaring interest rates and insurance premiums, have resulted in single-family home prices flattening for the first time since 2011 after jumping nearly 50% over the past three years. What’s more, inbound moves are slowing.
“The fact that Florida is getting more expensive is making it less attractive to homebuyers,” said Redfin chief economist, Daryl Fairweather. “It becomes a concern for people trying to fix their monthly housing expenses.”
The pullback in Florida, while still moderate compared with downturns in once-hot Sun Belt areas like Phoenix and Austin, shows the limits of a pandemic boom that has priced out locals and inflated the cost of entry for newcomers. One top destination for New Yorkers heading South — Miami — is now the most-unaffordable metro area in the US, according to May data from RealtyHop on homeownership expenses relative to incomes. -Bloomberg
Last month, billionaire VC Peter Thiel said he would be reluctant to shift operations from Silicon Valley to Florida due to the jump in prices.
Florida resident Jessica Cameron was caught off guard after she moved back to Florida following a five-year stint in Georgia while her husband completed his chiropractic degree. After returning at the end of 2022 to a four-bedroom house in Land O’ Lakes for $589,000, all the other costs of life – from car insurance to utilities – came as a shock after paying a third less in Georgia for things like the water bill.
“Once I took a tally of the expense of everything, it blew my mind,” said Cameron, adding “What’s happening here breaks my heart, to be honest.”
According to Tampa realtor Vanessa Charles, the flood of new (liberal) arrivals during the pandemic are also having second thoughts due to the state’s conservative politics.
“People are looking at Florida differently now,” said Charles. “A lot of families who moved here called and said. ‘We have to leave.’”
Year-to-date, 56% more people moved into Florida than moved out according to data from United Van Lines – down from 58% in 2022 and 62% in 2021, the peak of the pandemic migration.
Making things more difficult for prospective buyers is that the state’s housing market has remained robust vs. other parts of the country.
Florida has some cushions, such as a strong job market fed by Wall Street and tech company relocations, year-round sunshine that continues to attract telecommuters and rich Latin American buyers fleeing turmoil in their home countries.
The state also remains popular with affluent retirees, who aren’t worried about high mortgage rates because they’re paying cash, according to Brad O’Connor, chief economist for the Florida Realtors trade group. -Bloomberg
“It’s still a very active housing market,” said O’Connor. “We still have an influx of out-of-state buyers and it’s still a good deal compared to high-cost states.”
Yet in April, single-family home prices went sideways vs. 2022 prices, according to Florida Realtors, noting that it was a turning point for the market after steady increases.
The pullback is of course very regional, with Tampa prices falling 3.9% over the four week period ending June 11, while Jacksonville prices saw a 2% drop from a year earlier, according to Redfin, which for some reason used vastly different time scales to make that comparison. While Miami saw some slowdown, prices are still up 8.9% vs. last year.
Where to go?
Locked-out buyers have begun setting their sights elsewhere, including Alabama and other less expensive states.
end
USA/RESTAURANTS//SLOWDOWN
Inflation and the maxing out of USA citizens credit cards is proving a huge slowdown in mid tier restaurant dining. Only the MacDonald’s and Wendy’s of the world is showing some growth.
(zerohedge)
Restaurants Face Unappetizing Slowdown As Consumers Buckle Amid Two-Year Inflation Storm
WEDNESDAY, JUN 21, 2023 – 05:46 AM
Two years of negative real wage growth, depleted savings, mounting credit card debt, and soaring interest rate payments put pressure on consumers’ wallets. This might lead to some consumers trading down to cheaper quick-serve restaurants, ditching casual-dining chains in the second half of this year, according to a new report.
Bloomberg Intelligence’s Michael Halen penned a new note titled “2H Restaurant Sales: Inflation Killing Appetites.” It outlines, “Consumer spending finally buckles under more than two years of inflation and price hikes,” and the likely result is a trade-down of casual-dining chains like Brinker and Cheesecake Factory for quick-service chains like McDonald’s and Wendy’s.
The trade-down, which could start as early as this summer, is expected to dent consumer spending in restaurants such as Cheesecake Factory, Texas Roadhouse, and at brands operated by Brinker and Darden, Halen said.
Casual-dining industry same-store sales rose just 0.9% in May, according to Black Box Intelligence, as traffic dropped 5.4%. We expect cash-strapped low- and middle-income diners to cut restaurant visits and checks through year-end due to more than two years of real income declines and ballooning credit-card balances.
Halen provides more details about quick-service restaurants to fare better than causal-dining ones as “consumer spending finally buckles.”
Quick-service restaurants’ same-store sales could moderate with consumer spending in 2H but should fare better than their full-service competitors. Results rose 2.9% in May, according to Black Box data, as a 5% average-check increase was partly offset by a 2% guest-count decline. Check- driven comp-store sales gains are unsustainable, and we think inflation and menu price hikes will motivate low- and middle-income diners to reduce restaurant visits and manage their spending in 2H. On Domino’s 1Q earnings call, management said lower-income consumers shifted delivery occasions to cooking at home. Still, a trade-down from full-service dining due to cheaper price points may cushion the blow.
McDonald’s, Burger King, Wendy’s, and Jack in the Box are among the quick-service chains in Black Box’s index.
The latest inflation data shows consumers have endured the 26th straight month of negative real wage growth. What this means is that inflation is outpacing wage gains. And bad news for household finances, hence why many have resorted to record credit card usage.
And the personal savings rate has collapsed to just 4.4%, its lowest level since Sept. 2008 (the dark days of Lehman). And why is this? To afford shelter, gas, and food, consumers are drawing from emergency funds due to the worst inflation storm in a generation.
As revolving consumer credit has exploded higher and the last two months have seen a near-record increase…
… even as the interest rate on credit cards has jumped to the highest on record.
With record credit card debt load and highest interest payments in years, plus depleted savings, oh yeah, and we forgot, the restart of student loan payments later this year, this all may signal a consumer spending slowdown at causal diners while many trade down for McDonald’s value menu. Even then, we’ve reported consumers have shown that menu items at the fast-food chain have become too expensive.
“Long Way To Go” – Powell Maintains ‘Hawkish’ Line In Prepared Remarks
WEDNESDAY, JUN 21, 2023 – 08:39 AM
The market has slid in overnight trading ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s monetary policy testimony to Congress.
According to just released prepared remarks, he will tell lawmakers on Wednesday there is still “a long way to go” to cool inflation and interest rates are expected to rise further this year, reiterating his comments from last week.
“[I]nflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go,” Powell’s prepared remarks state.
“Nearly all [officials] expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year,” he added.
Reducing inflation will likely require slower economic growth and “some softening of labor market conditions.”
“The economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation,” though the extent to which remains uncertain.
“The focus is on whether the July meeting is truly ‘live’ and if the Fed dot plot of two more hikes is a true base case depending on the data, or doom-mongering on inflation in an effort to ensure no premature easing in financial conditions,” said Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at NAB.
Powell will appear before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 am ET, then the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.
“Inflation” is the key focus of his prepared remarks.
Chairman McHenry, Ranking Member Waters, and other members of the Committee, I appreciate the opportunity to present the Federal Reserve’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report.
We at the Fed remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. My colleagues and I understand the hardship that high inflation is causing, and we remain strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve, and without it, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.
I will review the current economic situation before turning to monetary policy.
Current Economic Situation and Outlook
The U.S. economy slowed significantly last year, and recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a modest pace. Although growth in consumer spending has picked up this year, activity in the housing sector remains weak, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates. Higher interest rates and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment.
The labor market remains very tight. Over the first five months of the year, job gains averaged a robust 314,000 jobs per month. The unemployment rate moved up but remained low in May, at 3.7 percent. There are some signs that supply and demand in the labor market are coming into better balance. The labor force participation rate has moved up in recent months, particularly for individuals aged 25 to 54. Nominal wage growth has shown some signs of easing, and job vacancies have declined so far this year. While the jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed, labor demand still substantially exceeds the supply of available workers.1
Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent. Over the 12 months ending in April, total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices rose 4.4 percent; excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 4.7 percent. In May, the 12-month change in the consumer price index (CPI) came in at 4.0 percent, and the change in the core CPI was 5.3 percent. Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year. Nonetheless, inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go. Despite elevated inflation, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets.
Monetary Policy
With inflation remaining well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent and with labor market conditions remaining tight, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has significantly tightened the stance of monetary policy. We have raised our policy interest rate by 5 percentage points since early last year and have continued to reduce our securities holdings at a brisk pace.2 We have been seeing the effects of our policy tightening on demand in the most interest rate–sensitive sectors of the economy. It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation.
The economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.3 The extent of these effects remains uncertain.
In light of how far we have come in tightening policy, the uncertain lags with which monetary policy affects the economy, and potential headwinds from credit tightening, the FOMC decided last week to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 to 5-1/4 percent and to continue the process of significantly reducing our securities holdings. Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year. But at last week’s meeting, considering how far and how fast we have moved, we judged it prudent to hold the target range steady to allow the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, we will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks.
We remain committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run.
Before concluding, let me briefly address the condition of the banking sector. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. As detailed in the box on financial stability in the June Monetary Policy Report, the Federal Reserve, together with the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, took decisive action in March to protect the U.S. economy and to strengthen public confidence in our banking system. The recent bank failures, including the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and the resulting banking stress have highlighted the importance of ensuring we have the appropriate rules and supervisory practices for banks of this size. We are committed to addressing these vulnerabilities to make for a stronger and more resilient banking system.
We understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.
end
Powell tells Congress to expect higher interest rates
June 21, 2023 at 8:30 a.m. ET
MarketWatch
Fed chair doesn’t shed new light on timing of rate moves
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday told Congress that, with U.S. inflation well above target, more interest rates are likely this year, although he did not shed any new light on the timing of the moves.
“Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year, ” Powell said, in testimony prepared for delivery to the House Financial Service Committee on Wednesday.
Powell was vague on the timing.
“We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks,” Powell said.
Last week the Fed released updated forecasts that showed 12 of 18 policymakers expect two more 25 basis point rate hikes this year. That would bring the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to a range of 5.5%-5.75%.
During his press conference last week, Powell said that the FOMC’s next meeting in six weeks was a “live meeting” and, as a result, many economists expect an increase at the meeting.
“The July meeting is not a lock, but saying ‘live’ usually means they are ready to go,” said Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro, in an interview ahead of Powell’s testimony.
After the July meeting, figuring out the timing of another possible rate hike “gets more difficult,” Dutta added.
Traders in derivatives markets see almost an 80% chance that the Fed hikes rates by 25 basis points after their July 25-26 meeting, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. The odds of a second hike at any of the Fed’s last three meetings of the year are below 20%. Traders see the first cut early next year.
At their meeting last week, Fed officials agreed to hold their policy rate at a range of 5%-5.25%.
That broke a string of meetings over the last 15 months where the Fed had raised interest rates every time they met.
In explaining the pause in his testimony, Powell said that considering how far and fast the Fed had moved, “we judged it prudent to hold the target range steady to allow the committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy.”
In particular, the Fed was watching how the lags of prior rate hikes affects the economy and potential headwinds from banks pulling back on lending, he said.
Powell will take questions from members of the House panel starting shortly after 10:00 a.m. Eastern.
The bulk of Powell’s prepared remarks consisted mainly of points that he made at his press conference last week.
He stressed the Fed has seen some progress in bringing inflation back down to its 2% goal, while cautioning lawmakers this cooling of price pressures “has a long way to go.”
He said reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and “some softening of labor market conditions.”
The economy slowed significantly last year and the most recent indicators suggest that activity is expanding “at a modest pace,” Powell said.
Consumer spending has picked up but housing remains weak and high rates are weighing on business investment, he added.
At the same time, the labor market remains “very tight,” with an average of 314,000 jobs added to the economy each month so far this year.
There were some signs of cooling in the job market and Powell suggested the strong job market won’t last with inflation so high.
“Without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all,” he said.
The Fed chairman said that the U.S. banking system is “sound and resilient” despite the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and two other mid-sized regional banks this spring. He said the bank stress caused by the failures “have highlighted the importance of ensuring we have the appropriate rules and supervisory practices for banks of this size.”
“We are committed to addressing these vulnerabilities to make for a stronger and resilient banking system,” he said.
USA// COVID
end
SWAMP STORIES
TUCKER CARLSON No 5
important. this is a repeat of yesterday in case some of you have missed it
(Tucker Carlson)
Tucker Carlson Savages Bidens Over Hunter’s ‘Slap On The Wrist’ For Tax, Gun Crimes
WEDNESDAY, JUN 21, 2023 – 06:11 AM
Tucker Carlson savaged the Biden family on Tuesday, hours after it was announced that Hunter Biden would receive a slap on the wrist – and would only be required to plead guilty to simple tax crimes and a gun charge, despite what many would say is obvious evidence that he’s been acting as a foreign agent.
Carlson noted how none of the charges have to do with influence peddling – including Hunter’s alleged role as an international bag man for the Biden family (alleged, of course), which included a $10 million payment from Burisma to Hunter and Joe Biden, according to an FBI source.
“Investigators had ‘identified payments to Biden family members from foreign companies, while Joe Biden served as Vice President and after he left public office.'”
“So actually there was something there. It was a scandal,” Carlson said. “Racketeering, money laundering, wire fraud. Those are some of the crimes the Bidens seem to have committed.”
“Donald Trump had an idea, ‘they’ll hit Hunter with something small to make their strike on me look fair.’ Trump wrote that about two weeks ago,” said Carlson. “And it turned out, those were prescient words.This morning, Hunter Biden pleaded guilty to pretty much nothing. Biden pleaded to two misdemeanor tax evasion charges and then entered a diversion on a federal gun charge. That’s it. As far as Merrick Garland’s justice department is concerned, Hunter Biden is done. There was no pre-dawn raid carried live simultaneously on CNN, there was no perp walk, no handcuffs, no press conference.”
“Above all, there was no felony. Hunter Biden who broke federal gun laws can still carry a gun. It’s like it all never happened,” Carlson continued.
According to the Washington Post, Hunter, 53, is expected to plead guilty to two misdemeanor tax charges of failure to pay in 2017 and 2018, for a combined tax liability of roughly $1.2 million. He’ll also admit to illegally possessing a weapon after his 2018 purchase of a handgun – which will likely result in a ‘diversion program’ which would result in the removal of the gun charge if all of the program’s conditions are met.
The former Fox News host also noted how the White House has dismissed the investigations as politically motivated and irrelevant to Joe Biden’s presidency. He also questioned Hunter’s source of income – highlighting his art sales and book deal, which Carlson implied could be tied to money laundering and influence peddling.
“If you didn’t know what a virtuous person Hunter Biden was you might think it looked a lot like money laundering,” said Carlson, referring to an interview he gave to ABC in 2019. “Two years after that interview, Hunter Biden was selling prints of his art — and to be clear, just the prints, not the art itself – but effectively photocopies of it for seventy five thousand dollars a pop!”
“Apparently Hunter Biden moved five of these Repros in just days. That’s $375,000 in less than a week for signed copies of your fake art.
“As for the paintings themselves, childish self-indulgent blots, those sold for half a million dollars a piece. So the question is; who bought them and why? It’d be interesting to know, there’s a story there for sure, but of course we have no right to know.”
END
ROBERT KENNEDY JR.
Now Robert Kennedy Jr is censored by YouTube. They are censoring a presidential candidate!
YouTube has continued its censorship of those with opposing positions on Covid 19 and vaccines. This week it prevented users from hearing the views of Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Despite Kennedy running on the failures of the pandemic response, YouTube will not allow users to hear what it considers harmful thoughts.
On Sunday, both Kennedy and podcast host Jordan Peterson tweeted that they were the latest to be censored by the company. Kennedy tweeted: “What do you think… Should social media platforms censor presidential candidates? My conversation with [Peterson] was deleted by [YouTube].”
He added: “Luckily you can watch it here on [Twitter] (thank you [Elon Musk]).”
The incident shows why many on the left continue an unrelenting attack on Musk and Twitter.
Musk eliminated most of the company’s censorship system and, despite a few censorship controversies, the site is now the most open social media site among the major companies.
A Google spokesperson told Fox News DigitalYouTube “removed a video from the Jordan Peterson channel for violating YouTube’s general vaccine misinformation policy, which prohibits content that alleges that vaccines cause chronic side effects, outside of rare side effects that are recognized by health authorities.”
Rather than allow experts and others to debate that question, Google and YouTube will not allow the debate to occur. It is consistent with calls from Democratic leaders for dissenting voices to be removed on subjects ranging from Covid to gender identity to climate control.
President Joe Biden has at times acted as a virtual censor-in-chief, denouncing social-media companies for “killing people” by not censoring enough. Recently, he expressed doubt that the public can “know the truth” without such censorship by “editors” in Big Tech. There is growing evidence of long-suspected back channels between government and Democratic political figures and Big Tech. Some of those contacts were recently confirmed but Congress again refused to investigate.
For years, scientists faced censorship for even raising the lab theory as a possible explanation for the virus. Their reputations and careers were shredded by a media flash mob. The Washington Post declared this a “debunked” coronavirus “conspiracy theory.” The New York Times’ Science and Health reporter Apoorva Mandavilli was calling any mention of the lab theory “racist.”
When a Chinese researcher told Fox News that this was man-made, the network was attacked and the left-leaning PolitiFact slammed her with a “pants on fire rating.”
The mask mandate and other pandemic measures like the closing of schools are now cited as fueling emotional and developmental problems in children. The closing of schools and businesses was challenged by some critics as unnecessary. Many of those critics were also censored. It now appears that they may have been right. Many countries did not close schools and did not experience increases in Covid. However, we are now facing alarming drops in testing scores and alarming rises in medical illness among the young.
The point is only that there were countervailing indicators on mask efficacy and a basis to question the mandates. Yet, there was no real debate because of the censorship supported by many Democratic leaders in social media. To question such mandates was declared a public health threat and what the WHO called our “infodemic.”
A lawsuit was filed by Missouri and Louisiana and joined by leading experts, including Drs. Jayanta Bhattacharya (Stanford University) and Martin Kulldorff (Harvard University). Bhattacharya previously objected to the suspension of Dr. Clare Craig after she raised concerns about Pfizer trial documents. Those doctors were the co-authors of the Great Barrington Declaration, which advocated for a more focused Covid response that targeted the most vulnerable population rather than widespread lockdowns and mandates. Many are now questioning the efficacy and cost of the massive lockdown as well as the real value of masks and the rejection of natural immunities as an alternative to vaccination. Yet, these experts and others were attacked for such views just a year ago. Some found themselves censored on social media for challenging claims of Dr. Fauci and others.
The media has quietly acknowledged the science questioning mask efficacy and school closures without addressing its own role in attacking those who raised these objections.
Yet, the censorship continues to the point that even a presidential candidate is now being silenced on social media.
The censorship of Kennedy is a national disgrace. Despite the proven legitimacy of prior censorship of viewpoints like the lab theory and natural immunities, Google continues to silence those with opposing views.
YouTube is signaling that this election will be another exercise in corporate approved messaging and ideas.
If you want to use YouTube, you will now have to engage in self-censorship, eliminating views that Google disagrees with. You may be able to “Broadcast Yourself” but you must first “Censor Yourself” . . . or YouTube will do it for you.
end
Robert h to us:
The Would-Be Emperor Has No Clothes: The Bidens’ Illegal Payment Scandal Triples Overnight – Def-Con News
And you wonder why confidence in America is declining? China knows it has short window on Taiwan. Do not expect a compromised leader to stand up. Taiwan will be on their own. Perhaps Japan will assist as no doubt they will fight. Meanwhile one should ponder where chips will come from as further supply chain disruptions occur. And we have yet to see the real escalation Nuland is driving Europe to. It is Nuland’s war where Europe and Britain are expendable pawns.
China Seeks Military Base in Cuba as ‘Response’ To US Bolstering Taiwan, US Officials Admit The Wall Street Journal is reporting Tuesday that China is in negotiations with the Cuban government to establish a new joint military training facility on the island… (Yet Team Obama-Biden genuflects to Xi) According to further details in the WSJ report: Most worrying for the U.S.: The planned facility is part of China’s “Project 141,” an initiative by the People’s Liberation Army to expand its global military base and logistical support network, one current and one former U.S. official said. China and Cuba already jointly run four eavesdropping stations on the island, according to U.S. officials. That network underwent a significant upgrade around 2019, when a single station expanded to a network of four sites that are operated jointly, and Chinese involvement deepened, according to the officials… https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-seeks-military-base-cuba-response-us-bolstering-taiwan-us-officials-admit
May US Housing Starts surged to 1.631m; 1.4m was expected; April was revised to 1.34m from 1.401m. Permits jumped to 1.491m from 1.417m. 1.425m was consensus.
US Housing Starts Surge Most Since 2016, Exceed All Estimates – BBGBeginning construction jumped 21.7% to 1.63 million paceMay starts of single-family dwellings (+18.5%) highest in 11 monthsStarts of apartment buildings and other multifamily projects jumped more than 27%…
ESUs traded lower when the Nikkei opened. They drifted lower until dropping after the 1 ET Nikkei close. After a modest rally into the European opening, ESUs and stocks sank on the open, but quickly rebounded on the usual trader buying. After peaking near the end of the first hour of European trading, ESUs and stocks declined smartly until 5 ET.
The ensuing rally persisted until 9 ET. ESUs and USUs ignored the surprisingly strong May US Housing Starts and Permits data. Five minutes before the NYSE opening, ESUs commenced a declined that took ESUs to a daily low of 4410.50, a 51.50 point tumble from the session high near 4 ET.
During early US trading, stocks and commodities declined sharply while bonds rallied moderately. This was defensive asset allocation despite the strong US housing data.
ESUs and stocks hit their daily lows at 10:30 ET. Traders played for the 2nd Hour rebound and a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside for ESUs. The rally persisted until 13:22 ET. ESUs rallied 34.25 from the low. ESUs and stocks then stair-stepped lower until the last-hour manipulation occurred at 15:40 ET. The rally was short lived; ESUs and stocks then sank into the close.
After the close, FedEx lowered its 2024 forecast to $16.50 to $18.50 a share. $18.31 was consensus. FDX closed at 231.65, -1.81; its low was 229.96 at 12:10 ET. FDX tumbled to a low of 214.21 at 16:02 ET. Did someone have this news earlier?
Positive aspects of previous session Bonds rallied ¾ of a point; Fangs rallied modestly on safe haven buying
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks sank; the S&P 500 Index closed 11.29 below 4400
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Why did defensive asset allocators ignore the strong US May Housing Starts?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4385.35 Previous session High/Low: 4400.15; 4367.19
@CBSNews: Hunter Biden, President Biden’s son, has reached a tentative deal to enter guilty pleas to two misdemeanor tax charges and admitting to felony gun possession, according to a Justice Department filing. https://t.co/U4TXs1bsCt
@RNCResearch: Hunter Biden’s lawyer says he “can’t recall being asked about.” Hunter’s laptop by federal investigators. Q: “Why not?” Lawyer: “You’d have to ask the prosecutors.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1671254428991770624
@ShaunKraisman: Chris Clark, attorney for Hunter Biden, told NBC News: “With the announcement of two agreements between my client, Hunter Biden, and the Unites States Attorney’s Office for the District of Delaware, it is my understanding that the five-year investigation into Hunter is resolved.”
CNN: “We do have one bit of information here … the Justice Department is saying that the Hunter Biden probe is ongoing… Unclear at this point exactly what that means… Hunter Biden’s team said it is resolved.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1671185019094683648
GOP @RepJamesComer: Hunter Biden is getting away with a slap on the wrist when growing evidence uncovered by the House Oversight Committee reveals the Bidens engaged in a pattern of corruption, influence peddling, and possibly bribery.
GOP @SenRonJohnson: A sham investigation within our multi-tiered justice system produces the predictable result: Hunter gets off with a light slap on the wrist, and the public will not learn the truth. When @POTUS lied and said Hunter “has done nothing wrong,” what he really meant to say was: “Hunter will never be held accountable for his actions.” Today’s announcement that Hunter will plead guilty to low-level charges will further reduce confidence in federal law enforcement.
GOP Sen. @TomCottonAR: Remarkable how DOJ suddenly rediscovered prosecutorial discretion when it benefits Joe Biden’s preposterously corrupt son.
@seanmdav: DOJ had Hunter nailed on these charges years ago. Why’d they wait years to do this only to give Hunter a slap on the wrist with no jail time? Because DOJ is crooked and is trying to prevent any more investigation of how they tried to make the Hunter bribery investigation disappear… For years, congressional investigators, litigators, and former prosecutors have wondered whether David Weiss’s (Del US Atty, DJT appointee) actions in the Hunter Biden case were driven by personal incompetence or corruption. Even among those who know him, it’s been an open question. Today we got our answer.
Former U.S. Attorney Says DOJ Violated Its Own Policies On Hunter Biden Case: ‘Laughable Joke’ – “DOJ is violating its own internal policies on this case. The Ashcroft Memo requires they charge the “highest provable offense” and seek consistent sentences with other cases brought by DOJ. This prosecution is an absolute laughable joke,” Tolman wrote in a tweet Tuesday. “Thousands have been sent to prison for long terms for the same charges.”… https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/former-u-s-attorney-says-doj-violated-its-own-policies-on-hunter-biden-case-laughable-joke-cmc/
Typically, US voters at the margin tend to be outraged at injustice and corrupt officials getting passes. Astute Dems have to be concerned that swing voters will express this outrage at the ballot box.
Biden yesterday afternoon when asked about Hunter’s wrist slap:“I’m very proud of my son.”
GOP Rep. @mtgreenee: It looks like Gavin Newsom is quietly being positioned to replace Joe Biden as the Democrat presidential nominee for 2024. After all, he is Nancy Pelosi’s nephew. And Biden’s crimes are so bad they can’t ignore and hide them anymore and they can’t hide his failing mind and body, the entire world sees it. The Democrat national party is doing everything they can to stop credible and popular Democrat candidates like Kennedy. They won’t even allow him to debate. But that’s how they do it, silence their enemies, even in their own party…
@JesseBWatters: Biden was supposed to be a one-term deal: a bridge to the next generation. But that bridge has blown up so he’s rolling the dice and running again. Primetime did an investigation into the so-called Biden campaign and we found out there’s no campaign. No headquarters, no finance department, and barely any staff. Andyou’re being lied to about it. But the country doesn’t care because being lied to feels better. https://twitter.com/JesseBWatters/status/1670949001548509184
Today – The absence or presence of defensive asset allocation will be an important factor. However, Powell’s appearance at the House Financial Services Panel at 10 ET is the main event. The risk for bulls is that Powell understands that he and his ilk once again signaled a dovishness that sent stocks soaring. He therefore might repeat what has been done for over a year: walk back Fed dovish indications.
Powell Faces Tricky Task of Explaining Rate Pause in Congress – BBG
ESUs are +1.00 in very quiet trading. Apparently the market is waiting for Powell’s words of wisdom.
Expected economic data: Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee 12:25 ET
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4187; 100-day MA: 4108; 150-day MA: 4052; 200-day MA: 3986 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,605; 100-day MA: 33,364; 150-day MA: 33,448; 200-day MA: 32,822 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
Biden says threat of Putin using tactical nuclear weapons is ‘real’ On Saturday, Biden called Putin’s announcement that Russia had deployed its first tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus “absolutely irresponsible”. “When I was out here about two years ago saying I worried about the Colorado River drying up, everybody looked at me like I was crazy,” Biden told a group of donors in California on Monday. “Theylooked at me like when I said I worry about Putin using tactical nuclear weapons. It’s real,” Biden said.. https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-says-threat-putin-using-tactical-nuclear-weapons-is-real-2023-06-20/
@DavidSacks: THE FAILING COUNTEROFFENSIVE AND THE PEACE THAT COULD HAVE BEEN: With each passing day, it’s becoming clear that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is failing to achieve any of its originally stated objectives. Recall: the Biden administration’s bet was that the counteroffensive would roll back Russian territorial gains, cut the land bridge to Crimea, and force Russia to the negotiating table. That is almost certainly not going to happen. On the contrary, a stalemate is more likely, or even that Russia will take more territory and win the war… What are Biden’s options now? Either escalate or admit defeat. In preparation for NATO’s Vilnius Summit, Blinken has been floating a proposal to give “Israel status” to Ukraine. This means multi-year security guarantees including weapons, ammunition and money that would continue even if Biden loses the next election… I know some of you may find it hard to believe that the realities on the ground are so at odds with the mainstream media’s coverage. But it’s worth recalling that the American public was assured for two decades that we were winning in Afghanistan. All of that reporting was revealed as a pack of lies when the Afghan army that we were supposedly “standing up” collapsed within a matter of weeks. At that point, the media stopped reporting on Afghanistan, just like it had stopped reporting on Iraq, instead of holding anyone accountable… https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1670923154443882496
@RobertKennedyJr: Awaiting White House propaganda offensive sugarcoating this calamity to sustain dwindling support for this misadventure in US. Revelation that UK & US leaders sabotaged April 2022 peace agreement betweenUkraine and Russia. Puts blame for this terrible crime on DC neocons; 350,000 dead !!
@DavidSacks: One of the craziest revelations of the Ukraine War is that the US can’t produce as much ammunition as Russia, even though the US spends over $800B/year on defense, which is 10X Russia. American taxpayers must be getting royally ripped off by the military-industrial complex.
@NvrBackDown24: Gov. @RonDeSantis on why Republicans should vote for him instead of Trump: “I’m more likely to actually get this stuff done. There’ve been promises made about draining the swamp, building the wall, doing all these things. None of that came to fruition.” “There’s going to be no distractions, we’re not going to take our eye off the ball.”
@TuckerCarlson: Ep. 5: As in most of the developing world, it’s safer to be the president’s son than his opponent. “…The Department of Justice just baptized Hunter Biden. A lifetime of sins washed away in an instant… Hunter Biden somehow escaped a FARA charge. FARA is the Foreign Agents Registration Act. Under Federal law if you are acting as an agent of a foreign nation in Washington, you are required to register with our government… [Hunter] sold access to his father to the Chinese and the Ukrainians.” https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1671226703992201216
The St. Valentine’s Day Massacre that outraged Chicago and the nation produced 7 deaths. A typical Chicago weekend has 50 to 60 people shot and 8-12 people killed. Where’s the outrage?
Biblical cycle timing expert, geopolitical and financial analyst Bo Polny has been saying for many months the U.S. dollar is going to take a big hit this year. With the reported rollout of the new BRICS currency (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) on August 22, 2023, it looks like that is going to happen. Polny explains, “There are two agendas here that you can lay on the table. . . . It’s the ‘Great Reset,’ the Klaus Schwab ‘Great Reset’ plan. Then, it’s the ‘Great Awakening’ possibility. They are polar opposites because in the ‘Great Reset’ they are trying to bring on central bank digital currency (CBCD). Basically, they are trying to bring on a one world government, and they are trying to bring on the ‘Mark of the Beast’ system. That’s the ‘Great Reset.’ The ‘Great Awakening’ is the other side of the coin. Is there evil in the world or is there a God? . . . There is night and day. A coin has two sides. . . . What we are witnessing right now is evil on this earth. Evil has grabbed hold of the Earth. . . . If God should intervene, and he will, as horrible and evil as their agenda is, the exact opposite is about to start. That exact opposite will not be the ‘Great Reset,’ it will be the ‘Great Awakening.’”
Polny, who analyzes Biblical timelines, says many important events happen after 1,260 days. The start of Covid was January 12 of 2020. Fast-forward 1,260 days, and you get an important turn date of June 25, 2023. Polny predicts, “Something crazy is about to start at the end of June. The calculated date is June 25. Could it be a little earlier or a little later? On or about June 25, look out because something crazy is about to happen.”
One thing that may happen this year is the dollar tanking in value. Polny predicts inflationary pain everywhere. Polny says, “When the dollar loses its status as the world reserve currency, there are going to be bank-runs, and banks are going to shut down. Credit cards are going to stop working. Those who did not prepare are not going to be able to buy food or water. What have we been talking about on your show? Make sure you prepare and not just precious metals. Do you have food? Do you have water? You don’t want to be running to the stores because they may be all closed, and the banks and ATM’s will be all down. This is the death of one system. The death of this system is going to look horrible. It’s going to look scary. . . . People are going to throw up when people find out what these demons have been doing to kids and humanity. This is the truth being revealed. When this truth comes out, you are never going to be able to go back. The truth is the spotlight being shown on the deals done in darkness. Evil operates in darkness. God is going to shine a giant spotlight. . . . God is going to humble the world. Many people will lose their life savings. You are going to have hyperinflation hit the world. . . . August onward we are going to see crystal clear hyperinflation. Don’t be surprised it you wake up one morning and interest rates spike up to 20%. This will crash the real estate market. . . . When God intervenes, every plan evil has comes to a screeching halt. Look at Pharoh in ancient Egypt. All his plans came to a screeching halt when the Red Sea closed. Look at Jesus. It looked bad before he rose from the dead. Then Jesus had the greatest victory ever against evil. But those three days before it looked horrible.”
In closing, Polny says, “The United States is about to die. . . . It has to die. The United States is going to go through a Baptism. It’s going to go through destruction, and that is what Baptism is. It is death of self, and then America is going to be reborn.”
Polny is still forecasting President Donald Trump will have a second term in the White House, and it may be by the end of this year.
There is much more in the 1-hour and 6-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Biblical cycle expert and financial analyst Bo Polny, founder of Gold2020Forecast.com for 6.20.23.
Polny also said, “When hush money does not work anymore, guess what comes out? The things that were hushed, and that’s your great awakening. It’s all about the U.S. dollar.”
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