GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $6.15 TO $1931.55
SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $0.05 AT $23.08
Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1931.95
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 23.10
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Bitcoin morning price:, $30,441 DOWN 448 Dollars
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $30,534 UP 355 dollars
Platinum price closing $929.00 DOWN $0.60
Palladium price; $1249.40 UP $5.55
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2,556.45 UP 0.00 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)
BRITISH GOLD: 1494.95 DOWN 2.12 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)
EURO GOLD: 1753.4 UP 6,48 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,926.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/07/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 07/11/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 10
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 23
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 8
661 C JP MORGAN 2
661 H JP MORGAN 1
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1
726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 32 6
905 C ADM 2
TOTAL: 43 43
JPMorgan stopped 0/128 contracts.
FOR JULY:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2023. CONTRACT: 128 NOTICES FOR 12800 OZ or 0.3981 TONNES
total notices so far: 2287 contracts for 228,700 oz (7.1135 tonnes)
FOR JULY:
SILVER NOTICES: 108 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 540,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 3538 for 17,690,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $6.15
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.00 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/
INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.26 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A SMALL DEPOSIT OF OF 0.020 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 464.822 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 1911 CONTRACTS TO 121,649 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR TINY $0.02 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A SMALL SIZED 318 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH . CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: 318 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.02). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2,853 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 0 MILLION OZ.). WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG WITH MANIPULATION NOW MID MONTH AND BEYOND, DUE TO (TAS) MANIPULATION.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 942 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 16.110 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 485,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP.//NEW STANDING: 18.605 MILLION OZ/ // HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) SMALL NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (318 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL + 1175 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 5 days, total 2297 contracts: OR 11.485 MILLION OZ (459 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 11.485 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 11.485 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1911 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.02 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 942 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF 16.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 485,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP: TOTAL NOW STANDING 18.605 MILLION OZ///// .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2853 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A SMALL 318//NEGLIGIBLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TODAY (318) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE.
WE HAD 108 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 540,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 22,841 CONTRACTS TO 485,952 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED 3,000 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 19,769 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $1.35 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY. AT 5.1975 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.3950 TONNE QUEUE JUMP: NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY: 7.222 TONNES// + /AN UNBELIEVABLY HUGE (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 21,676 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $1.35 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 21,206 OI CONTRACTS (65.959 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1437 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 482,880
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 24,278 CONTRACTS WITH 22,841 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR 1437 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 24,278 CONTRACTS OR 75,514 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE 21,676 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1437 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (22,841) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 24,278 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 5.1975 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.3950 TONNE QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL 7.222 TONNES ///// /3) TINY LONG LIQUIDATION//4) HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: UNBELIEVABLY HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 21,676 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
JULY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 10,160 CONTRACTS OR 1,016,000 OZ OR 31.601 TONNES IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2032 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 31.601 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 31.601/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.890% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 31.601 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1911 CONTRACTS OI TO 120,474 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 942 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 942 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 942 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1911 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 942 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2853 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 14.265 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.02 GAIN IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.67 PTS OR 0.22% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 180.11 PTS OR 0.97% /The Nikkei closed UP 13.84 OR 0.04% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.51 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.2000 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.2078 /Oil UP TO 73.45 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 78.16 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 22,841 CONTRACTS UP TO 485,952 DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.35 ON MONDAY,
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1437 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 1437 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1437 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED TOTAL OF 22,841 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1437 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 22,841 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.35//MONDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS AN UNBELIEVABLY HUGE 21,676 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS INITIATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GOLD/SILVER MARKET AS RAIDS WILL SURELY BE UPON US.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JULY (7.222) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 7.222 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $1.35) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN OF 24,278 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD SOME TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION . THE TAS ISSUED MONDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 75.51 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY. (5.11974 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.3950 TONNES//TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY GOLD: 7.222 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $1.35.
WE HAD + ADDED 3,000 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 24,275 CONTRACTS OR 2,427,500 OZ OR 75.51 TONNES.
Estimated gold volume today:// 202,672 FAIR
final gold volumes/yesterday 268,811 FAIR
//JULY 11/ FOR THE JULY 2023 CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | NIL OZ . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil OZ |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 128 notice(s) 12800 OZ 0.3981 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 35 contracts 3500 oz 0.10886 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 2287 notices 228,700 OZ 7.1135 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposit:
Customer deposits: 0
total customer deposits: 0 oz
total dealer deposits: 0
we had 0 customer withdrawals:
total withdrawals: NIL oz
Adjustments; 1
I) out of JPM< 32,215.302 oz (1000 kilobars)
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.
For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 143 contracts having GAINED 84 contracts. We had 43 contracts served on Monday. Thus we gained 127 contracts or an additional 12,700 oz of gold will stand at the comex.
AUGUST LOST 10,914 contracts DOWN to 328,853 contracts
SEPT gained 283 contracts to stand at 445
We had 108 contracts filed for today representing 10800 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 128 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2287 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (143 CONTRACT) minus the number of notices served upon today 128 x 100 oz per contract equals 232,200 OZ OR 7.222 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of July.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (2287) x 100 oz + (143) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (128) x 100 oz) which equals 232,200 oz standing OR 7.222 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 7.222 TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,812,828.645 OZ 56,38 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,285,232.943 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,833,384.990 (368.06 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,451,8467,953 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,020,556 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 311.681 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
JULY 11
//2023// THE JULY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 1,168,835.112 oz CNT Loomis . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 3987.562 oz Delaware |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 108 CONTRACT(S) (540,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 183 contracts (915,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 3538 Contracts (17,690,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposits
total dealer deposit: 0 oz
total dealer deposits: 0
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into Delaware: 3987.562 oz
total customer deposits: 3987.562 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139.982 million oz/277,238 million =50.54% of comex .//dropping fast
Comex withdrawals 2
i) Out of CNT 569,456.312 oz
ii) Out of Loomis: 599,378.800 oz
adjustments: dealer to customer
i) Brinks 118,961.454 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 34.553 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 278.403 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2023 OI: 291 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 63 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 34 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED A STRONG 97 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 485,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN JULY.
AUGUST GAINED 43 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 558
SEPT HAS A GAIN OF 1028 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 105,104
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 108 for 540,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 35,683 poor /
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 40,654 fair
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3538 x 5,000 oz = 17,690,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(291) and the number of notices served upon today 108 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY/2023 contract month: 3538 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (291) – number of notices served upon today (108 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 18.605 million oz +
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JULY 11/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.0 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.26 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.26 TONNES.
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES.
JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES
JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.90 TONNES
JULY 3/WITH GOLD UP $1.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES//
JUNE 30/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES
JUNE 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.81 TONNES
JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.10 TONNES
JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WITHDRAWALS OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $0.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44 TONNES
JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44
GLD INVENTORY: 915.26 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .020 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.822 MILLION OZ/
JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.672 MILLLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.802 MILLION OZ
JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ
JULY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.667 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ//
JULY5/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JULY 3/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.377 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.763 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.764 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 27/WILVER SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 734,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ
JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 469.793 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A NET DEPOSIT OF 6.61 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OVER THESE PAST TWO DAYS//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.793 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.784 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 89 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ
JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.377 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.642 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 14/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 735,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.019 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.515 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.754 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 9/
CLOSING INVENTORY 464.822 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
Peter Schiff: Bond Bear Will Maul Stocks And The Dollar
TUESDAY, JUL 11, 2023 – 02:00 PM
Stocks and bonds had a tough week last week. In his podcast, Peter Schiff talked about the market moves in the context of Fed rhetoric and the jobs reports. He concluded that we could be heading toward another big leg down in bonds, and this bond bear will maul stocks and the dollar.
Peter said called last week “decisive” and “telling” in the markets. The stock market and the bond market both showed weakness, along with the dollar. But gold finished last week with a small gain.
Given the fact that everything else went down, I think the fact that gold managed to go up could indicate we’ve kind of come to the end of this trend where we’ve had this bear market rally and stocks and the pullback in gold.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/peter-schiff-bond-bear-will-maul-stocks-and-dollar
Bonds got clobbered last week driving yield across the spectrum to over 4%. We also had a complete inversion of the yield curve from the 6-month note to the 30-year bond.
The yield curve is clearly flashing recession. Now, you can argue that we’re in a recession even though the statistics don’t reflect that. But what the yield curve is telling you is we’re going to be in a recession. The question is when is it going to start, if it isn’t already here.”
Peter said the yield curve also indicates that price inflation expectations are still anchored, but they may be on the verge of coming unanchored.
If that is the case, I expect to see a sharper increase in yields in the 30-year, and I expect that inversion to reverse. Because as investors begin to have a more realistic outlook on inflation, they’re going to sell bonds, particularly the 30-year bonds. And the fact that the dollar went down and gold went up, may be a reflection of the fact that investors are starting to think this way.”
Peter said he thinks the weakness in the bond market caused the stock market to fall. So, what caused the carnage in the bond market?
For one thing, last week the Fed released the minutes from the June FOMC meeting. That reinforced the notion that more rate hikes are coming. In fact, most of the FOMC members indicated they expected additional hikes.
So, they’re just slowing down the pace of the rate hikes, but they’re not stopping the rate hikes. And of course, a lot of people are betting that the Fed is finished, that the reason they paused is because they’re done. I think there is a good chance that that is the case. But, you know, the Fed is certainly talking like that’s not the case. They’re acknowledging that inflation is still a threat. And it’s actually a bigger threat than what they acknowledge. But they’re not proclaiming victory, and they’re talking about more hikes. So, I think that hurt the market.”
But what really clobbered the bond market and drug down stocks was the much stronger than expected ADP private sector job numbers. In fact, they more than doubled the forecast. This threw fuel on the idea that the Fed is going to have to get even more aggressive in its inflation fight.
The Fed is still under the false impression that inflation is the byproduct of people working, and if more people are working, then we’re going to have more inflation. That is not the case. In fact, it’s the opposite. When people are productively employed, they make more things. You have more stuff. It costs less.
When you have a lot of people who aren’t working and who aren’t producing, but they’re spending because they’re getting unemployment checks, or food stamps, or other forms of welfare, all of that is inflationary, because you have less stuff being produced but more money being printed to buy that stuff. And so, the markets and the Fed still haven’t come to terms with that reality.”
But on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics non-farm payroll report came out, and it was a miss. Not only that, the BLS revised the job numbers downward for every month this year. In all, 196,00 jobs disappeared from the numbers.
I’ve been saying all along that I don’t believe these job numbers. I think they’re overstated. And I think that despite this downward revision, they’re probably still overstated.”
Peter noted the big increase in corporate bankruptcies.
The government is still assuming all these new companies are being formed and creating all these jobs. All these bankruptcies would indicate that it’s more companies that are dying.
The birth-death model needs to be adjusted to have more deaths. Because that’s what’s happening. These companies are dying, and these dying companies are obviously laying off workers.
If we have all these bankruptcies, does it makes sense that we have strong job gains?”
In other words, the government formula is overstating job creation and understating layoffs.
Peter said the market reaction to these contradictory job reports was telling. Bonds got clobbered when the ADP number came out stronger than expected and then bonds sold off again with the weaker-than-expected BLS job report. You would have expected the bond market to enjoy a relief rally.
To me, that was very negative for the markets. Because I’ve been looking for and waiting for a breakdown in the bond market. I’ve been thinking that we’re just going sideways, but that we have another big move down in bonds, meaning a big move up in yields. And that could be happening — where we start to see the movement on the 10 to the 30 from a four-handle to a five-handle. Remember, we’ve already got the shorter maturities in the fives. The longer-term bonds should be up there too. If that happens, if we start moving toward 5% on the 10-year through the 30-year, that is going to be a huge problem. Because that is going to put a lot more downward pressure on the portfolios of banks, and all of their underwater mortgage-backed securities and Treasury portfolios are about to get hammered.”
This will also put more pressure on the stock market.
It’s also notable that even with the selloff in stocks last week, the dollar fell too.
Peter said all of these trends are a negative for American markets but a positive for gold.
In this podcast, Peter also covers some of the negative economic data that recently came out.
end
2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO
De-Dollarization Just Got Real, Part 2: BRICS To Introduce Gold-Backed Currency In August
We now have both the event and the date
JUL 10, 2023
There’s an old saying about predictions: It’s okay to forecast an event or a date, but not both. But lately, Jim Rickards has been predicting both the introduction by the BRICS coalition of gold-backed currency and the date, August 22. Here’s a short video where he lays it out.
https://rubino.substack.com/p/de-dollarization-just-got-real-part
Based on subsequent headlines, it seems that Rickards’ gamble paid off, with him nailing both parts of the story:
Russia confirms BRICS will create a gold-backed currency
(Kitco News) – Friday, according to state-run RT, the Russian government has confirmed that Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, also known as BRICS nations, will introduce a new trading currency backed by gold. The official announcement is expected to be made during the BRICS summit in August in South Africa.
The latest news is adding new momentum to the ongoing de-dollarization trend unfolding in the global economy. Since mid-2022, central banks worldwide have been buying gold at a historic pace in part to diversify their reserve away from the U.S. dollar.
For many analysts, a gold-backed currency is the next evolution in this process. Many analysts have seen China’s recent gold purchases as an attempt to bring international credibility to the yuan.At the same time, the U.S. government’s weaponization of the U.S. dollar against Russia for invading Ukraine has created some geopolitical uncertainty among some nations allied with Russia.
What does this mean?
There’s a lot to consider here, including:
- The introduction of a gold-backed BRICS currency is the beginning, not the end, of a long journey. It will have to survive the inevitable growing pains as technical questions are (sometimes very messily) worked out, and people will have to be convinced to use it. On the latter point, Rickards predicts that each BRICS country will issue bonds denominated in the new currency and encourage citizens to buy them, thus jumpstarting a bond market that will then go global.
- We’ll have to see what exactly “gold-backed” means. Will the currency be convertible into gold at government offices or via bank accounts? Will participants settle trade imbalances by shipping physical gold from vault to vault? Will there be some kind of blockchain-like ledger that accounts for who owns what? Will China be in charge of everything or will decision-making be distributed?
- The BRICS countries will have to prove they can play nice with each other, something that, based on past history and current governance styles, is not at all guaranteed. Picture the eurozone with eight different flavors of dictatorship.
- How will the existing fiat monetary powers react to such a challenge? The US tends to respond violently to countries that nationalize their resources or otherwise deviate from dollar hegemony. A gold-backed BRICS currency would be orders of magnitude more threatening than, say, a couple of random countries trading oil in yuan. So it’s possible that the US response would be commensurately extreme. Since we’re already on the verge of WWIII in two separate theaters, any escalation from here would take the world into “inconceivable” territory.
- Last but least, the BRICS currency is emerging at the exact time that central banks around the world — including some of the BRICS — are rolling out central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) that appear to be designed more as tools for social control than as improvements in national monetary systems. The new BRICS currency seems like a separate issue. But could it be part of the same overarching plan? Stay tuned.
Good for gold
Assuming the world manages to avoid a nuclear war, gold probably wins in two ways if a gold-backed BRICS currency gains traction in global trade.
- The participants will need more gold to back a rising amount of currency in circulation, increasing demand for limited supplies of available metal.
- The existence of a major gold-backed currency would lead to a public debate over the difference between and relative merits of fiat currency and sound money. Millions of newly minted gold bugs will result (since that’s just what happens when normal people actually consider these issues) leading to a big jump in retail gold demand.
To sum up, many things have to go right for the BRICS currency to launch successfully and gain traction, and a smooth introduction is probably the least likely scenario. But there’s a decent chance that it’s good for gold. In any event, it’s nice to have both an event and a date to look forward to.
end
end
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Two commentaries on the same subject: many countries repatriating their gold in response to Russian sanctions
(Reuters and National Post Toronto)
Countries are repatriating gold in response to sanctions against Russia, study finds
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2023-07-09 22:51Section: Daily Dispatches
By Marc Jones
Reuters
Monday, July 10, 2023
LONDON — More countries are repatriating gold reserves as protection against the sort of sanctions imposed by the West on Russia, according to an Invesco survey of central bank and sovereign wealth funds published today.
The financial market rout last year caused widespread losses for sovereign money managers who are “fundamentally” rethinking their strategies on the belief that higher inflation and geopolitical tensions are here to stay.
Over 85% of the 85 sovereign wealth funds and 57 central banks that took part in the annual Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study believe that inflation will now be higher in the coming decade than in the last.
Gold and emerging market bonds are seen as good bets in that environment, but last year’s freezing of almost half of Russia’s $640 billion of gold and forex reserves by the West in response to the invasion of Ukraine also appears to have triggered a shift.
The survey showed a “substantial share” of central banks were concerned by the precedent that had been set. Almost 60% of respondents said it had made gold more attractive, while 68% were keeping reserves at home compared to 50% in 2020.
One central bank, quoted anonymously, said of gold: “We did have it held in London … but now we have transferred it back to own country to hold as a safe haven asset and to keep it safe.”
Rod Ringrow, Invesco’s head of official institutions, who oversaw the report, said that is a broadly-held view.
“‘If it’s my gold then I want it in my country’ has been the mantra we have seen in the last year or so,” he said. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
Gold swaps and Bank of England’s custodial gold inventory decline
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-07-10 10:45Section: Daily Dispatches
A little more journalism would ask the New York Fed about any changes in its own custodial gold inventory — not that any answer would necessarily be truthful.
* * *
Central Banks Move Gold Back Home After Freeze on Russian Assets
By Arjun Neil Alim and Harry Dempsey
Financial Times, London
Monday, July 10, 2023
A growing number of countries are bringing their physical gold reserves back home to avoid Russian-style sanctions on their foreign assets, while increasing their purchases of the precious metal as a hedge against high levels of inflation.
Central banks globally made record purchases of gold in 2022 and into the first quarter of this year, as they hunted for safe havens from high inflation and volatile bond prices, according to a survey of sovereign investors by asset manager Invesco. China and Turkey together accounted for almost one-fifth of these purchases
Concerned by the decision by the US and others to freeze Russian assets, central banks opted to buy physical gold rather than derivatives or exchange traded funds that track the metal’s price.
They also preferred to hold it in their own country as global tensions increased. Invesco’s survey found that 68% of central banks held part of their gold reserves domestically, up from 50% in 2020. In five years that figure is expected to rise to 74%, the survey showed.
“Until this year central banks were willing to buy or sell gold through ETFs and gold swaps,” said Invesco’s head of official institutions, Rod Ringrow. “This year it has been much more physical gold and the desire to hold gold in country rather than overseas with other central banks. … It’s part of the reaction to the freezing of the Bank of Russia’s reserves.” …
In a sign of the move to repatriate gold, holdings at the Bank of England, one of the main storage hubs for official financial institutions globally, have slipped 12% from their 2021 peak to 164 million troy ounces at the start of June.
The attraction of holding gold in large liquid hubs such as London has also been reduced by the fact that hedging by gold miners peaked at the turn of the millennium and has since fallen. That has limited the ability for central banks to earn a yield by swapping out bullion stored overseas.
… For the remainder of the report:
https://www.ft.com/content/76bddb74-4ddb-4e36-b70c-c0e26d8bf557
END
This is quite a find!!
More than 700 Civil War-era gold coins discovered in Kentucky cornfield
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-07-10 19:47Section: Daily Dispatches
By Chris Knight
National Post, Toronto
Monday, July 10, 2023
A man in Kentucky has harvested a fortune in gold from his cornfield, after stumbling across a cache of more than 700 gold coins dating back to the U.S. Civil War era.
The man, whose name and location have not been revealed, can be heard on a short video breathlessly exclaiming “this is the most insane thing ever” while digging the coins out of the dirt.
The treasure, which has already been dubbed “The Great Kentucky Hoard,” has not been precisely valued, but just one of the coins, an 1863 $20 Gold Liberty coin, has in the past sold at auction for more than $100,000. The cache includes 18 of those, as well as more than 600 gold dollar coins, dating from 1854 to 1862.
Kentucky was a border state during the Civil War and declared itself neutral when hostilities broke out. It was the site of several fierce battles, and its uncertain future led to many wealthy inhabitants hiding their valuables from one side or the other. Legends persist of buried treasure left behind by Daniel Boone, Jesse James, and others. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
More nations cut their ties with the USA dollar
(Daily Star/Bangladesh)
Bangladesh and India to begin bilateral trade in rupees tomorrow
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-07-10 20:12Section: Daily Dispatches
By AKM Zamir Uddin
The Daily Star, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Sunday, July 9, 2023
Bangladesh is set to join a global effort that is seeking to cut over-dependence on the U.S. dollar when it comes to settling foreign trades as the country commences to use the rupee to carry out bilateral transactions with India from July 11.
The move may extend some respite to importers since they will be able to open letters of credit in the rupee to source a portion of the products from the neighbouring country, thus cutting the use of the U.S. dollar to some extent.
The government has toughened import rules due to the shortage of American greenback, driven by higher import bills, with a view to stopping further depletion of the foreign currency reserve, which has fallen by nearly 30% from a year ago.
Both the Bangladesh Bank and the Indian High Commission are expected to announce the move toward the Indian currency at an event at Le Méridien Hotel in Dhaka on Tuesday. …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://www.thedailystar.net/business/global-economy/news/new-era-dawns-trade-india-3364336
end
The Sound Money Defense league’s successes discussed on Palisades Gold radio
(Stefan Gleason)
Sound Money Defense League’s successes discussed on Palisades Gold Radio
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2023-07-07 19:10Section: Daily Dispatches
7:10p ET Friday, July 7, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Stefan Gleason of the Sound Money Defense League (and coin and bullion dealer Money Metals Exchange) today explains to Tom Bodrovics of Palisades Gold Radio the league’s increasingly successful work to exempt the purchase and sale of the monetary metals from state taxes in the United States.
Gleason and Bodrovics also discuss legislation introduced in Congress by U.S. Rep. Alex X. Mooney, R-West Virginia, to return the United States to a gold standard, after first determining whether the U.S. gold reserve has been encumbered by gold leases, swaps, and similar mechanisms
In 2009 a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, Kevin M. Warsh, admitted to GATA that the Fed has secret gold swap agreements with foreign banks:
https://www.gata.org/node/7819
Other topics of the discussion include the totalitarian implication of central bank digital currencies.
The discussion is 51 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
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4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES/
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END
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:
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5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//COCOA
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
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1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2000
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2078
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.67 PTS OR 0.55%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 180.11 PTS OR 0.97%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 13.84 PTS OR 0.04%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 101.53 EURO FALLS TO 1.0991 DOWN 14 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.447 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 140.36/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: UP// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.6145***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.367*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.674…** DANGEROUS//
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.011
3j Gold at $1936.50 silver at: 23.15 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 25 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 90.17//
3m oil into the 73 dollar handle for WTI and 78 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 142.25// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, FALLS TO 0.447% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8815 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9689 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.963 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.002 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.843 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.11…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 0 BASIS PTS AT 4.688 UP 1 PTS
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2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures Rise After Latest China Stimulus Report, Looming CPI Keeps Gains In Check
TUESDAY, JUL 11, 2023 – 08:15 AM
For the second day in a row, S&P futures are largely unchanged following a muted overnight session, reversing an earlier loss around the start of the European session and trading around session highs. In a reversal of yesterday’s tech/small cap drubbing sparked by fears about the upcoming Nasdaq special rebalance (see here). As of 7:30am, S&P futures were up 0.2%, trading at 4,450, and building on Monday’s modest gains with sentiment boosted after China signaled that more economic aid measures will come to support its ailing property market along with measures to boost business confidence; Nasdaq futures were also in the green as tech stocks see a lift while bond yields fall ahead of growing expectation that tomorrow’s CPI will surprise dovishly (in large part on the back of yesterday’s Manheim used car index collapse).
Treasury yields fell with the 10Y yield trading below 4% as USD weakness continued for a third day. NY Fed’s consumer survey shows inflation expectations continuing to decline; 1Y expectations are now 3.8%, the lowest reading since Apr 2021. The perceived probability of job loss moved up to 12.9%, highest since Nov 2021, which may feed into a reduced job quits rate. Meanwhile, Fedspeak remained hawkish, continuing the recent narrative with all of Monday’s Fed speakers indicating they are looking for higher rates. As such rate hike expectations for July remain ~90%. With all eyes on Wednesday’s CPI print, we may see another quiet (from a news/catalyst perspective) session with activity mostly position squaring ahead of the CPI print. Yesterday saw another strong series of short covering, which in turn led to the third worst day of 2023 for hedge funds according to Goldman prime brokerage.
In premarket trading, Iovance Biotherapeutics shares fall 11% after the biotechnology company announced the pricing of an underwritten public offering of 20 million shares of its common stock at $7.50 per share, a nearly 15% discount to last close. JPMorgan gaines more than 1% after it was raised to buy from hold at Jefferies, which highlights the big US investment bank’s “stable” earnings outlook and better revenue diversity. Here are some other premarket movers:
- Nio’s US-listed shares rise 1% in premarket trading following a 7.9% rally on Monday. Morgan Stanley said the EV maker’s sales momentum showed a big improvement last month and is likely to register further gains through September.
- Viridian Therapeutics Inc. reported preliminary data from an ongoing trial of its eye disease drug on Monday. Shares slumped 14% in premarket trading Tuesday.
- Zillowis raised to overweight from neutral at Piper Sandler, which sees share gains and improving housing macro conditions setting up a better 2H23 and FY24 for the tech real estate marketplace. The broker also boosted its price target. Shares gain 3.8% in premarket trading
“Last week’s surge in government bond yields put some pressure on equities – and highlights that companies will need to deliver on the market’s earnings expectations as the Q2 reporting season gets underway,” BlackRock Investment Institute analysts including Jean Boivin wrote in a note. “Resilient consumers have helped support earnings, but we see them exhausting the savings built up during the pandemic this year.”
While central bank officials in Europe and the US are increasingly suggesting they’ve reached a turning point in the battle against inflation, they’re also warning that higher rates for longer are needed to ensure price stability. That’s a mixed blessing for stock bulls who have had to endure a disappointing start to the second half after stellar gains in the first six months of the year. The approaching second-quarter earnings season will give them more food for thought: it kicks off in earnest on Friday, when JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo all report their numbers.
“US equity markets have priced in a soft landing, or a more friendly recession, but actually the risk is for the recession to come in harder than expected,” Cecilia Chan, chief investment officer for APAC at HSBC Asset Management, said on Bloomberg TV. “For developed markets we expect a choppy-waters kind of scenario where it will be more difficult from now on, and we are more conscious of valuations that are on the expensive side.”
On Wednesday, the latest US CPI data will give further insight into outlook for prices and interest rates. Most Fed policymakers expect to increase rates by a further half percentage point by the end of the year, according to projections released after their June gathering. The ECB, meanwhile, is all but certain to raise rates by a quarter point on July 27. Policymakers are debating whether to raise borrowing costs again at their subsequent meeting in September.
In the UK, data showed that wage growth held at a level that BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said is fueling inflation. The data is crucial to shaping the central bank’s next decision on rates in August. The pound rose to the highest versus the dollar since April 2022.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index was on track for a third day of gains with construction, consumer and mining stocks leading gains after Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the European Central Bank is nearly finished hiking, but added that interest rates will stay at “high plateau” for some time. The UK’s benchmark fell as the latest wage data added pressure on the Bank of England to keep raising rates. Bonds rose, with the German 10-year yield falling five basis points to 2.59%. Here are the other notable European movers:
- Kingspan Group shares rise as much as 13% after the building materials company issued an unscheduled trading update, saying it expects to report record 1H23 trading profit in the region of €435m
- Nordic Semiconductor shares climb as much as 8.8% higher in volatile trading. The Norwegian chipmaker gave tepid 3Q sales guidance and said it’s intentionally skipping any guidance for 4Q amid a chip sector slowdown
- Forterra drops as much as 12%, the steepest decline since March 2020, after the British building materials firm issued a pre-close update which analysts say implies significant downside to current consensus
- Saab gains as much as 6.5% after Citi says the denfese company’s shares don’t yet reflect the positives from Turkey agreeing not to block Sweden’s bid to join the NATO defense alliance
- Nordex shares rose as much as 5.4% in Frankfurt on Tuesday after the company announced it received further orders for several wind farms in the Mediterranean region at the end of 2Q, according to statement
- British Land shares rise as much as 3.1%, among the top performers in the Stoxx 600 Real Estate Index, after the commercial property landlord said momentum continues to be strong
- BMW falls as much as 2.2% after Bankhaus Metzler cut to hold from buy, which sees the market environment for demand and pricing becoming more challenging in the second half of the year, while margins could soften slightly
- Dowlais, the automotive technology business spun off from Melrose, drops as much as 7.4%, most since May 24, as Citi starts coverage with a sell rating. The broker opens a pair trade, with an overweight on Melrose
- Tryg dropped as much as 5.8%, the most since October, after the Danish insurer reported gross premiums for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate
- Sensirion shares tumble as much as 20%, the most ever, after the Swiss maker of gas and liquid flow sensors issued a profit warning on the back of a more pronounced inventory correction and weaker consumer demand.
Earlier, a gauge of Asian equities climbed more than 1% and snapped a four-day losing streak, boosted by gains in semiconductor-related shares and China’s latest moves to support its flagging economy and property sector. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.2%, with Taiwan Semiconductor the biggest contributor after a better-than-expected sales report amid the boom in artificial intelligence. South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Australia were among the best-performing markets in the region, while Japanese stocks halted their longest losing run of the year as a result of a recent surge in the yen following months of carry-trade driven weakness.
Stock gauges in Hong Kong and mainland China extended gains from Monday as Chinese authorities signaled further policy support for the economy following minor steps to support the weak property market. The Hang Seng Index is still down 17% from a January high. “Valuations have been cheap but earnings revision seems to be bottoming out,” Rupal Agarwal, Asia quantitative strategist at Bernstein told Bloomberg Television explaining her constructive view on China. “Some of the policy-led support that the market could start receiving is also one of the key catalysts we are looking for,” she added. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was the laggard and gave back most of its early gains with the upside capped by a firmer currency. ASX 200 traded higher with the index led by the tech and mining-related industries, while risk sentiment was also facilitated by an improvement in Westpac consumer confidence and NAB business surveys.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index saw another day of broad-based weakening as the Japanese yen outperformed most major peers. USD/JPY fell as much as 0.63% as traders sold out of long dollar positions; NZD/USD slipped 0.4% and AUD/USD fell 0.1% after China’s economic stimulus signal did little to support the currencies.
“We do not expect big FX moves today, but DXY could continue drifting toward the 101.50 area,” wrote Chris Turner, head of fx strategy at ING, in a note. “The push factor of the Fed/US interest rate story versus the pull factor of overseas asset markets is slightly working against the dollar.”
In rates, treasuries advanced across the curve with yields on the two-year falling three basis points to 4.83% and yields on the 10-year down three basis points to 3.965%, outperforming bunds and gilts by 1bp and 2bp; euro bonds also saw broad.
Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the European Central Bank is nearly finished hiking, but interest rates will stay at “high plateau” for some time. Treasury’s $40 billion 3-year new-issue auction closes at 1pm New York time; $32 billion 10-year and $18 billion 30-year reopenings are Wednesday and Thursday. Gilts are higher after the UK unemployment rate unexpectedly rose in May although wages did top estimates. UK two-year yields are down 3bps at 5.34%. The pound is up 0.3%.
In commodities, crude futures advanced, with WTI gaining 0.2% to trade near $73.20. Spot gold adds 0.6%. Bitcoin falls 1.3%.
Looking To the day ahead, and data releases include UK employment and Italian industrial production for May, along with the German ZEW survey for July. In the US, there’s also the NFIB’s small business optimism index for June which came in stronger at 91.0 from 89.4 last month, above the 89.9 expectation. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy. Finally, NATO leaders will be gathering for a summit in Vilnius.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.2% at 4,455
- MXAP up 1.2% to 163.48
- MXAPJ up 1.5% to 514.40
- Nikkei little changed at 32,203.57
- Topix down 0.3% to 2,236.40
- Hang Seng Index up 1.0% to 18,659.83
- Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,221.37
- Sensex up 0.6% to 65,748.95
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.5% to 7,108.85
- Kospi up 1.7% to 2,562.49
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 449.22
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.61%
- Euro little changed at $1.1012
- Brent Futures up 0.9% to $78.36/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,936.90
- US Dollar Index down 0.23% to 101.74
Top Overnight News
- Japanese consumers may finally be shedding their decades-old frugal mindset, spending more on items that retailers were once too afraid to raise prices on and paving the way for the central bank to finally unwind its massive monetary stimulus. The world’s third-largest economy is seeing early signs of demand-driven inflation with an increasing number of hotels, restaurants and retailers now charging more for services – without losing consumers who are willing to pay more on prospects of higher wages. RTRS
- China signaled more economic support measures are imminent after authorities took a small step toward supporting the ailing property market by extending loan relief for developers. BBG
- Sales of homegrown passenger-car brands in China are consistently eclipsing those of their Western rivals, signaling the growing influence of the country’s electric-vehicle makers—and a triumph for Beijing’s industrial policy. WSJ
- France will send its long-range SCALP missiles to Ukraine to help it defend its territory against Russia, the latest step-up of western military support. FT
- The US will transfer F-16 fighter jets to Turkey in consultation with Congress, the US national security adviser said on Tuesday, hours after Turkey’s president agreed to drop his veto on Sweden joining Nato. FT
- The Fed’s John Williams said the US jobs market remains strong, but he sees signs of slowing in the direction of labor demand. An increase in unemployment and a further easing of demand will be needed to bring inflation back to target. He also said officials “have some ways to go to get the policy to this sufficiently restrictive stance.” BBG
- A growing number of countries are bringing their physical gold reserves back home to avoid Russian-style sanctions on their foreign assets, while increasing their purchases of the precious metal as a hedge against high levels of inflation. FT
- House Republicans threaten to block bills that don’t contain what they believe are adequate spending cuts, raising the risk of a gov’t shutdown later in the year. The Hill
- The restart of federal student loan payments this fall will be a renewed burden for millions of borrowers and another headwind for a US economy that’s losing momentum. BBG
- Alternative financing options for businesses unable to borrow from banks are likely more expensive. Academic research suggests that, after controlling for firm and loan characteristics, nonbank loans for mid-sized public companies typically carry interest rates that are roughly 200 basis points higher than those of bank loans. GIR
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly positive following the tailwinds from the US where cyclicals benefitted from encouraging inflation proxies ahead of this week’s US CPI data, while participants also reflected on China’s support efforts. ASX 200 traded higher with the index led by the tech and mining-related industries, while risk sentiment was also facilitated by an improvement in Westpac consumer confidence and NAB business surveys. Nikkei 225 was the laggard and gave back most of its early gains with the upside capped by a firmer currency. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the upbeat mood as developers benefitted after China extended two financial policies to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market to the end of 2024.
Top Asian News
- Australian PM Albanese is reportedly considering delaying a trip to Beijing until next year as the government prepares the appointment of a new ambassador to China, while turning down an invitation would be seen by China as a snub, according to Sydney Morning Herald.
European bourses are firmer but off of best levels, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, as sentiment has gradually deteriorated throughout the morning from initial APAC performance and as ZEW remains glum. Sectors are primarily in the green, though shy of best levels given the above; Autos lag with Volkswagen dragging after a Handelsblatt piece. Stateside, futures are directionally in-fitting but have been much closer to unchanged throughout the morning ahead of a relatively thin US agenda, ES +0.1%. German Cartel Office says, following the European Court Ruling, see scope for further actions against Big Tech names.. Reminder, On July 4th, the EU’s Top Court said the German Antitrust Agency can asses privacy in its investigations.
Top European News
- UK PM Sunak considers delaying cabinet reshuffle until September, according to The Telegraph.
- Barclays said UK consumer spending in June rose 5.4% Y/Y which was boosted by warm weather and noted that food price inflation pushed the annual increase in grocery spending in June to the highest since February 2021, according to Reuters.
- ECB’s Villeroy says we are starting to see good news on inflation; inflation will continue to decline and will be back at 2% by 2025; inflation should be at 2.5% on average next year.
FX
- Yen and Franc outperform amidst retreat in US Treasury yields, USD/JPY extends reversal through 141.00 and a Fib to just under 140.50, USD/CHF towards 0.8800 from 0.8850+ and DXY depressed within 101.960-670 range as a result.
- Pound perks up as UK average earnings exceed expectations, Cable probes 1.2900 briefly and EUR/GBP pivots 0.8550.
- Euro fades between 1.1026-1.0998 parameters vs Buck after downbeat ZEW survey.
- Kiwi lags awaiting RBNZ and confirmation that OCR has peaked at 5.5%, NZD/USD reverses from 0.6225 and AUD/NZD rebounds from just under 1.0750.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1886 vs exp. 7.2177 (prev. 7.1926)
Fixed Income
- Bonds bounce further from recent lows, with Bunds at best levels since last Thursday at 131.58 and Bobls underpinned near 115.00 following a decent 5 year German auction.
- Gilts lag within 93.31-92.78 range after another UK average earnings beat, but T-note closer to 111-16 peak than 111-04 trough amidst soft US inflation vibes ahead of CPI.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks spent much of the European morning resilient to the gradual downtick in broader risk appetite. However, the complex has most recently moved in-line and is now essentially flat and echoing the price action of European/US equity futures.
- Spot gold remains firmer given the lessening risk appetite and as the USD fails to derive any significant benefit from this.
- Base metals are hanging onto their APAC gains spurred by further Chinese stimulus hopes, despite the broader dip in risk appetite.
- Indonesia seized an Iranian-flagged tanker due to alleged illegal transhipment of oil, according to Reuters.
Geopolitics
- US President Biden is to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky during the NATO summit on Wednesday, while Japanese PM Kishida also plans to meet with Zelensky at the NATO summit, according to CNN and Nikkei.
- US National Security Advisor Sullivan says allies will send a positive signal on Ukraine’s future membership at the NATO summit; Biden intends to move forward with the transfer of F16s to Turkey in consultation with Congress.
- North Korean leader Kim’s sister said the US spy plane entered its economic water zone eight times on July 10th and warned US forces will face critical flight in case of repeated illegal intrusion, according to KCNA.
- Azerbaijani border guards suspend transport between Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh region, according to Al Arabiya.
Asia Pacific
- APAC stocks were mostly positive following the tailwinds from the US where cyclicals benefitted from encouraging inflation proxies ahead of this week’s US CPI data, while participants also reflected on China’s support efforts.
- ASX 200 traded higher with the index led by the tech and mining-related industries, while risk sentiment was also facilitated by an improvement in Westpac consumer confidence and NAB business surveys.
- Nikkei 225 was the laggard and gave back most of its early gains with the upside capped by a firmer currency.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the upbeat mood as developers benefitted after China extended two financial policies to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market to the end of 2024.
US Event Calendar
- 06:00: June Small Business Optimism, 91.0 est. 89.9, prior 89.4
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets had started the week in a holding pattern, but a rates rally in the US emerged as the main theme on Monday that sent the 10yr Treasury yield back beneath 4% again. The decline in yields followed some dovish tones in usually second-tier US data, which comes ahead of tomorrow’s all-important US CPI print. For equities it was a slow moving day, but the major indices like the S&P 500 (+0.24%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.18%) did see muted gains ahead of the start of earnings season later this week.
Earlier in the day 10yr US Treasury yields briefly looked like they might move above the pre-SVB peak, reaching as high as 4.088% shortly before the US open. But yields closed materially lower in the end, with the 2yr down -8.8bps to 4.86% and the 10yr down -6.8bps to 3.99%. The latter was the sharpest daily fall since the first half of June, and overnight we’ve seen the 10yr move another basis point lower to 3.98%. The rally came as investors grew more confident that the Fed would cut rates in H1 2024 (with June 2024 Fed pricing down -11.0bps from Friday). However, investors only marginally dialled back their expectations for rate hikes this year, with no change in the 89% likelihood of a hike this month and with the terminal rate priced for November down just -1.0bps to 5.42%.
The US rates rally appeared most driven by the US Manheim used car price index release, which fell -4.2% month-on-month in June, marking the biggest monthly decline since April 2020. Manheim used car prices have now declined for three months in a row, adding to the array of indicators pointing to slowing goods price momentum. Another data point supporting the rally was the New York Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. That showed 1yr inflation expectations falling back to +3.8% in June, which is their lowest level in over two years. Furthermore, the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the net year was up to 12.9%, the highest since November 2021. So that offered fresh signs that price pressures might be abating and the labour market softening. That said, the survey also saw 5-year inflation expectations rise to 3.0%, their highest since March 2022. So while there is increasing evidence of near-term disinflationary trends, questions remain as to whether inflation will persist at uncomfortably high levels in the medium-term.
The inflationary concern was reflected in hawkish comments from various Fed officials. That included Cleveland Fed President Mester, who said her view “is that the funds rate will need to move up somewhat further”, while San Francisco President Daly said “we’re likely to need a couple more rate hikes over the course of this year” and that the risks of doing too little to curb inflation outweighed the risks of doing too much. In the meantime, Atlanta Fed President Bostic had a more dovish tone, saying that “we can be patient” and that policy was “clearly in the restrictive territory”.
Elsewhere from the Fed, Vice Chair for Supervision Barr gave an important speech about his review on capital for large banks. Among others, the proposals outlined would stop relying on banks’ own estimates of their own risk, instead moving over to standardised approaches that apply the same requirements to each bank. He also said that stress tests “should evolve to better capture the range of salient risks that banks face.” Barr said that these changes “would increase capital requirements overall, but I want to emphasize that they would principally raise capital requirements for the largest, most complex banks.”
Back in Europe, the recent rates sell off held ground, and yields on 10yr bunds edged up +0.2bps to their highest level since SVB’s collapse, at 2.64%. Likewise in France, the 10yr yield (+0.7bps) inched up to a post-SVB high of 3.19%. The UK was the outlier once again, although this time gilts outperformed and the 10yr yield came down -1.2bps. We did hear from BoE Governor Bailey yesterday, where he acknowledged that the UK economy had “shown unexpected resilience” to external shocks, and said that “headline inflation is set to fall markedly over the remainder of the year.”
As mentioned at the start, Monday was a modestly positive day for equities. In the US, the S&P 500 was up +0.24%, and the NASDAQ up by +0.18%. European indices saw similar moves, with the STOXX 600 (+0.18%), the DAX (+0.45%), and the CAC 40 (+0.45%) all advancing. Across sectors, tech stocks underperformed in the US, with the FANG+ index of megacap tech stocks down -0.80%. On the other hand, cyclical and small-cap stocks were big outperformers, with the Russell 2000 up +1.64%.
This morning in Asia, equity markets have extended their overnight gains on Wall Street after China stepped up its support to the property sector. Yesterday saw a joint statement from the People’s Bank of China and National Financial Regulatory Administration, and some loans are set to be given a one-year repayment extension. Furthermore, there were signals of more policy support ahead, with the China Securities Journal newspaper saying that China was expected to “accelerate” the policy rollout to support the real estate market, and that measures to support business confidence may be introduced.
With more support being signalled, the Hang Seng (+1.53%) is leading gains across the region followed by the KOSPI (+1.36%), the CSI (+0.63%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.48%) and the Nikkei (+0.01%). In overnight trading, US stock futures are also pointing towards modest gains, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.04%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.03%) just above flat. In the meantime, the Japanese Yen has continued to strengthen against the US Dollar, falling beneath 141 per dollar in its 4th consecutive move higher.
Elsewhere, there was important news in the Netherlands after Prime Minister Mark Rutte said he’d be leaving politics. That follows the collapse of his coalition government because of disagreements over migration, and came ahead of a vote of no confidence in parliament. Rutte has been PM since 2010, making him the second-longest serving EU leader after Hungary’s Viktor Orban. Rutte is expected to remain as caretaker PM until elections are held later this year.
To the day ahead, and data releases include UK employment and Italian industrial production for May, along with the German ZEW survey for July. In the US, there’s also the NFIB’s small business optimism index for June. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy. Finally, NATO leaders will be gathering for a summit in Vilnius.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
Equities tilt higher, Fixed bid & havens gain; Fed’s Bullard due – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, JUL 11, 2023 – 05:59 AM
- European bourses remain firmer but off best levels as sentiment slips throughout the morning
- Stateside, futures in-fitting though action has been more contained and they remain much closer to Unch.
- DXY fails to benefit from the pullback in risk appetite as CHF and JPY outperform with UST yields pulling back, EUR unreactive to weak ZEW
- Core benchmarks are bid, with Gilts in-fitting despite hawkish wage metrics
- Crude has succumbed to the above move while precious and base metals prove more resilient
- Looking ahead, highlights include Fed Discount Rate Minutes, NATO Summit & EIA STEO, Speech from Fed’s Bullard, Supply from the US.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are firmer but off of best levels, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, as sentiment has gradually deteriorated throughout the morning from initial APAC performance and as ZEW remains glum.
- Sectors are primarily in the green, though shy of best levels given the above; Autos lag with Volkswagen dragging after a Handelsblatt piece.
- Stateside, futures are directionally in-fitting but have been much closer to unchanged throughout the morning ahead of a relatively thin US agenda, ES +0.1%.
- German Cartel Office says, following the European Court Ruling, see scope for further actions against Big Tech names.. Reminder, On July 4th, the EU’s Top Court said the German Antitrust Agency can asses privacy in its investigations.
- Click here for more detail.
- Click here and here for a recap of the main European equity updates.
FX
- Yen and Franc outperform amidst retreat in US Treasury yields, USD/JPY extends reversal through 141.00 and a Fib to just under 140.50, USD/CHF towards 0.8800 from 0.8850+ and DXY depressed within 101.960-670 range as a result.
- Pound perks up as UK average earnings exceed expectations, Cable probes 1.2900 briefly and EUR/GBP pivots 0.8550.
- Euro fades between 1.1026-1.0998 parameters vs Buck after downbeat ZEW survey.
- Kiwi lags awaiting RBNZ and confirmation that OCR has peaked at 5.5%, NZD/USD reverses from 0.6225 and AUD/NZD rebounds from just under 1.0750.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1886 vs exp. 7.2177 (prev. 7.1926)
- Click here for more detail.
- Click here for the notable option expiries.
FIXED INCOME
- Bonds bounce further from recent lows, with Bunds at best levels since last Thursday at 131.58 and Bobls underpinned near 115.00 following a decent 5 year German auction.
- Gilts lag within 93.31-92.78 range after another UK average earnings beat, but T-note closer to 111-16 peak than 111-04 trough amidst soft US inflation vibes ahead of CPI.
- Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES
- Crude benchmarks spent much of the European morning resilient to the gradual downtick in broader risk appetite. However, the complex has most recently moved in-line and is now essentially flat and echoing the price action of European/US equity futures.
- Spot gold remains firmer given the lessening risk appetite and as the USD fails to derive any significant benefit from this.
- Base metals are hanging onto their APAC gains spurred by further Chinese stimulus hopes, despite the broader dip in risk appetite.
- Indonesia seized an Iranian-flagged tanker due to alleged illegal transhipment of oil, according to Reuters.
- Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Jun) 91 (Prev. 89.4)
- Click here for the US Early Morning Note.
EUROPEAN DATA RECAP
- UK Average Week Earnings 3M YY (May) 6.9% vs. Exp. 6.8% (Prev. 6.5%); Average Earnings (Ex-Bonus) (May) 7.3% vs. Exp. 7.1% (Prev. 7.2%)
- UK ILO Unemployment Rate (May) 4.0% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.8%); Claimant Count Unemployment Change (Jun) 25.7k (Prev. -13.6k)
- UK BRC Retail Sales YY (Jun) 4.2% (Prev. 3.7%); YY (Jun) 4.9% (Prev. 3.9%)
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) -14.7 vs. Exp. -10.5 (Prev. -8.5); Current Conditions (Jul) -59.5 vs. Exp. -60.0 (Prev. -56.5)
- EU ZEW Survey Expectations (Jul) -12.2 (Prev. -10.0)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK PM Sunak considers delaying cabinet reshuffle until September, according to The Telegraph.
- Barclays said UK consumer spending in June rose 5.4% Y/Y which was boosted by warm weather and noted that food price inflation pushed the annual increase in grocery spending in June to the highest since February 2021, according to Reuters.
- ECB’s Villeroy says we are starting to see good news on inflation; inflation will continue to decline and will be back at 2% by 2025; inflation should be at 2.5% on average next year.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is a touch softer but remains firmly above the USD 30k mark, as sentiment slips but with the USD unable to benefit thus far.
GEOPOLITICS
- US President Biden is to meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky during the NATO summit on Wednesday, while Japanese PM Kishida also plans to meet with Zelensky at the NATO summit, according to CNN and Nikkei.
- US National Security Advisor Sullivan says allies will send a positive signal on Ukraine’s future membership at the NATO summit; Biden intends to move forward with the transfer of F16s to Turkey in consultation with Congress.
- North Korean leader Kim’s sister said the US spy plane entered its economic water zone eight times on July 10th and warned US forces will face critical flight in case of repeated illegal intrusion, according to KCNA.
- Azerbaijani border guards suspend transport between Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh region, according to Al Arabiya.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mostly positive following the tailwinds from the US where cyclicals benefitted from encouraging inflation proxies ahead of this week’s US CPI data, while participants also reflected on China’s support efforts.
- ASX 200 traded higher with the index led by the tech and mining-related industries, while risk sentiment was also facilitated by an improvement in Westpac consumer confidence and NAB business surveys.
- Nikkei 225 was the laggard and gave back most of its early gains with the upside capped by a firmer currency.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the upbeat mood as developers benefitted after China extended two financial policies to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market to the end of 2024.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Australian PM Albanese is reportedly considering delaying a trip to Beijing until next year as the government prepares the appointment of a new ambassador to China, while turning down an invitation would be seen by China as a snub, according to Sydney Morning Herald.
DATA RECAP
- Australian NAB Business Confidence (Jun) 0.0 (Prev. -4.0); Conditions (Jun) 9.0 (Prev. 8.0)
- Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Jul) 81.3 (Prev. 79.2); Sentiment MM (Jul) 2.7% (Prev. 0.2%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.67 PTS OR 0.22% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 180.11 PTS OR 0.97% /The Nikkei closed UP 13.84 OR 0.04% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.51 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.2000 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.2078 /Oil UP TO 73.45 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 78.16 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
///NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA/
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
end
CHINA
.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK
This will hurt the UK market badly as its key UK mortgage rate hits 6.6%
(zerohedge)
Key UK Mortgage Rate Hits 6.66%, Highest Since 2008 Meltdown
TUESDAY, JUL 11, 2023 – 07:45 AM
UK mortgage costs have hit levels not seen in 15 years after the average rate of the two-year fixed deal exceeded the chaotic Liz Truss mini-budget peak on Tuesday.
Bloomberg cited mortgage data from Moneyfacts that shows the average rate for a fixed two-year home loan increased to 6.66%, up from 6.63% on Monday. This is the highest rate since the 2008 financial meltdown and surpassed the 6.65% peak in the aftermath of the mini-budget during Liz Truss’s brief premiership in October. Source: Bloomberg
The average interest rate for five-year deals is 6.17%, lower than the 6.51% peak set last year.
Homeowners are reeling from the soaring cost of shelter, with millions of mortgage deals set to expire in the second half of this year. People coming off fixed deals are set to pay hundreds of pounds more per month amid the worst inflation crisis in a generation.
Charlotte Nixon, mortgage and financial planning expert at Quilter, told Yahoo Finance:
“The chaos in the mortgage market is hitting house prices and this is going to cause some uncertainty over the rest of the year as servicing costs become harder to manage and affordability is tested to its limits.
“For those who have a fixed rate deal ending in the next six months, the message is clear — act now or you could face exorbitant costs on the standard variable rate that you will default on to.”
Over in parliament today, MPs on the Treasury Committee have been questioning mortgage companies about soaring rates, home prices, and forbearance.
Bradley Fordham, mortgage director at Santander UK, told the committee that customers coming off a 2.3% rate could face upwards of £350 per month increase in mortgage payments. This interest rate shock will produce higher shelter costs and could crimp consumer discretionary spending.
Meanwhile, high mortgage costs have led to a downdraft in home prices this year. A Bloomberg model shows prices are set to slide even further.
Lender Halifax pointed out last month that UK house prices recorded their first annual contraction in May since 2012.
Niraj Shah, an economist at Bloomberg Economics, wrote in a report, “Britain’s housing market correction has further to run.”
Shah continued, “The fastest pace of policy tightening since the 1980s, permanently higher mortgage rates and stalling real incomes mean the slow grind lower in property prices is likely to persist.”
Rapid policy tightening is due to the Bank of England’s war on inflation, which remains stubbornly high and has triggered a cost-of-living crisis. Traders are betting the BoE will continue raising interest rates through 2023, with a terminal rate of around 6.3% by spring 2024.
Further interest rate increases by the central bank suggest mortgage costs will go higher and could hit a 25-year high by early next year, pushing average mortgage rates past 7%.
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid recently concluded: “The UK housing market is in for a huge amount of pain ahead.”
We have previously noted that the UK is actively bailing out distressed homeowners as mortgage expenses skyrocket. DB’s Reid is correct. A whole lot of pain nears.
end
UK
This will kill the UK economy: their new digital currency, Britcoin
(Zhou/EpochTimes)
‘Britcoin’ “Will Change Everything”, Analyst Warns
TUESDAY, JUL 11, 2023 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Lily Zhou and Lee Hall via The Epoch Times,
A Bank of England (BoE) digital pound will be a “complete restructure” of the current financial system and can give the government more control on how people use their money, a financial analyst warns.
Some 130 countries are exploring a central bank digital currency (CBDC), according to the Atlantic Council.
The Bank of England (BoE) and the Treasury are currently considering feedback on how to lay the groundwork for a digital pound, nicknamed “Britcoin” by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak when he was chancellor.
A decision is yet to be made on whether or not to launch a digital pound. But if the plan goes ahead, it could be issued in just a few years’ time to complement physical cash.
Arguing against a retail CBDC, writer and financial analyst Susie Violet Ward said to NTD’s “British Thought Leaders” programme that a centrally controlled digital currency could lead to the curtailing of freedom, and that citizens have not been given enough information to enable robust debate.
If Britcoin is launched, it will be issued by the BoE and backed by the Treasury. Private firms, such as Fintech companies or banks, are expected to provide customers with digital wallets—computer or phone apps that are needed to manage transactions of the digital currency.
Unlike decentralised cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, the digital pound won’t offer anonymity, which provides privacy but on the downside can also be exploited by criminals.
The infrastructure would also be programmable, enabling app providers to offer extra functions such as budgeting tools.
Ms. Ward said it could mean “they could tell you where to spend your money, what to spend it on, and potentially, if it expires.”
The BoE and the government have said that they won’t have access to users’ personal data “except for law enforcement agencies under limited circumstances, prescribed in law, and on the same basis as currently with other digital payments,” and that the bank won’t initiate any programmable functions.
But Ms. Ward is dubious that it would prevent the system from being used to control people’s spending behaviour. Digital wallet providers will be “subject to the law,” she said. So if the government wants to shut down or stop a transaction, they would have the power to sanction government-prohibited exchange.
Referencing the Chinese regime’s social credit system and COVID-19 restrictions across the world, Ms. Ward expressed worries that often “ill-informed” government agenda may lead to “all sorts of” restrictions, such as potential climate policy-related spending bans.
“They could stop you from buying meat. They could stop you from going on holiday. If they think that you’ve flown on too many holidays, they could stop you from flying. There’s all sorts of … it depends on the government agenda at the time. And who knows what they could come up with in the future?” she said of the possible scenarios.
Ms. Ward acknowledged that similar risks are already inherent in the currently system, in which most payments are made digitally. But she believes there will be more “ease of use” with a CBDC system.
Under the current financial system, “if they [the government] wanted to close down your bank account or take away your money, they could do it; it would just be more convoluted. This would make it a lot easier,” she said.
She also believes that cash will be phased out despite the BoE’s statement that it would continue to issue cash “for as long as people want to keep using it.”
Ms. Ward criticised the BoE and the government for making the public consultation documents too hard for “the majority of the public” to understand, and said that media outlets haven’t provided enough coverage to help people understand the issue.
The expiring date of digital money has been the featured in some of the international debate. The World Bank has studied the effects of expiring money, and the concept was also explored by the Chinese regime and in a paper published by the Bank of Canada.
Increased Use of ‘Private Money’
The BoE joined the global trend of CBDC creation as the use of cash—the only type of state-issued money in the UK—declined dramatically over the years.
According to BoE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe, around 95 percent of money used in the UK today is through bank deposits, which is private money created by commercial banks. Big tech’s contribution of an under-regulated private digital money market have also added to central banks’ concerns that they may lose control of their monetary systems.
The BoE has argued that a CBDC could help maintain trust in money and protect the UK’s financial system.
However, peers at the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee have not been convinced that a CBDC is necessary to solve the problem.
“Private entities of a size that can compete with the existing payments systems can and should be regulated,” the peers said in a report published last year.
The report said that while the government and the BoE should keep looking into the issue, the committee was “yet to hear a convincing case for why the UK needs a retail CBDC.”
The committee said that while a CBDC “may provide some advantages,” its introduction would also brings risks including “state surveillance of people’s spending choices, financial instability as people convert bank deposits to CBDC during periods of economic stress, an increase in central bank power without sufficient scrutiny, and the creation of a centralised point of failure that would be a target for hostile nation state or criminal actors.”
Speaking to the committee at a hearing on July 4, financial services minister Andrew Griffith said he believes the UK should “proceed cautiously” with regard to CBDC.
END
UK/NIGEL FARAGE
Farage is correct
| Robert Hryniak | 9:59 AM (1 minute ago) |  | |
| to | |||
END
HUNGARY
Orban is a very intelligent fellow: he rejects the EU’s plan to create a migrant ghetto in Hungary
(zerohedge)
PM Orbán: We Reject EU’s Plan To Create “Migrant Ghettos” In Hungary
TUESDAY, JUL 11, 2023 – 03:30 AM
Authored by John Cody via Remix News,
Hungary refuses to implement the EU’s migrant relocation plans, will not accept mandatory quota, and has no desire to build “migrant ghettos” or migrant camps in the country, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated on Friday during the Hungarian-Austrian-Serbian migration summit in Austria’ capital city of Vienna.
“We will not accept the mandatory quota nor will we accept the obligation to build migrant ghettos and camps. We will find a legal and political way to ensure that Hungary does not implement the latest decision from Brussels,” said Orbán during the summit.
“The situation is sad, but Hungary must defend itself not only against illegal migrants and people smugglers, but also against Brussels, and we will do so,” he added.
Orbán’s remarks come after the EU appears to be set to move forward with plans for the mandatory relocation of migrants across Europe, with member states who reject taking in migrants having to pay €20,000 per migrant.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pm-orban-we-reject-eus-plan-create-migrant-ghettos-hungary
He also touted what he described as the Hungarian model, which he says the EU is now trying to throw to the wayside despite its effectiveness in reducing mass immigration.
“The Hungarian model, which is effective, is based on a very simple idea. No one is allowed to enter Hungary until their asylum application has been assessed. You can only enter if the application you have submitted has a positive answer. Until then, you cannot enter the territory of the country. This is the Hungarian model, this is what works, and I believe that it should be adopted by all the countries of the European Union,” said the Hungarian prime minister.
“Unfortunately, this is not what is happening. Now, a regulation has been adopted in Brussels that imposes mandatory quotas and obliges member states to build refugee camps and migrant ghettos. This is bad not only for Hungary, ladies and gentlemen, but also for you Austrians,” he added.
Orbán also outlined that Hungary is facing tremendous numbers of migrants at its border but the EU has little interest in stopping these migratory flows.
“We are not only protecting Hungary, we are protecting the whole of Europe, including Austria, from illegal immigrants. Last year, we were protecting the whole of Europe, along the whole of Europe’s borders. A total of 330,000 illegal migrants were stopped. Of these, 270,000 were stopped at the Hungarian-Serbian border,” said Orbán.
The Hungarian leader recently made similar remarks about “migrant ghettos” while speaking on Kossuth Radio, saying: “So, we have been told that Hungary must provide tens of thousands of places for migrants. This will become a ghetto, a refugee camp, a migrant ghetto. Now I am fighting against this with every means at my disposal. And we have no intention of implementing these decisions. We are saying this openly.”
Orbán’s Fidesz party is now rallying together in total opposition to the migrant quota scheme, with MEP Tamás Deutsch stating that his country will not implement the European Union’s planned measures on the mandatory resettlement quota and migrant ghettos while speaking on state station Kossuth Radio on Sunday.
The MEP said Brussels was abusing its power to attack Hungary and initiate all kinds of political punitive measures because it considers the Hungarian model of dealing with illegal migrants to be legally questionable. The MEP also said that Hungary is being bullied by Brussels.
He continued by noting that “we are Europe’s defenders, since last year Hungary stopped more than a quarter of a million illegal migrants at the Serbian-Hungarian border, while in the last half decade we have prevented the entry of 1 million migrants seeking to enter Europe illegally, making the country a ‘leader in the ranking’.”
Deutsch said that “they want to force a scandalous new European solution down Hungary’s throat, the reason being that the multicultural ideology in Western Europe has collapsed, and the Willkommenskultur, the practice of welcoming migrants and giving illegal migration the green light, has had disastrous consequences.”
He added that Europeans see this every day in France, where there is a civil war, and recalled that not so long ago there were mass sexual assaults during the New Year’s Eve event in front of the Cologne Cathedral, as well as the terrorist attacks in Brussels and Paris.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pm-orban-we-reject-eus-plan-create-migrant-ghettos-hungary
On the new legislative package, the MEP said that illegal migrants already in Western Europe would be forcibly relocated to Hungary when they become too much of a burden, with tens of thousands of migrants a year being provided with accommodation and food to university dormitory standards, and if there are too many applicants at their borders, the processing of their asylum applications would be left to Hungarians, among others.
He warned that migrant ghettos would be created in the Hungarian cities of “Paks, Baja, Esztergom, three quarters of Dunaújváros (three medium-sized Hungarian cities)”, which would not be closed, meaning that resettled migrants would be able to move freely in and out, thus posing a threat to public safety and public health.
END
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA//
end
TURKEY/RUSSIA
Putin not happy on this: Russia is outraged at Turkey for an unauthorized release of Neo Nazi Azov fighers
(zerohedge)
Russia Directs Rare Outrage At Turkey For ‘Unauthorized’ Release Of Azov Fighters
MONDAY, JUL 10, 2023 – 06:40 PM
Russia is expressing a rare moment of outrage directed at Turkey, after Moscow says it was blindsided by the Erdogan government’s decision to handover of neo-Nazi Azav battalion prisoners to Ukraine.
President Putin is demanding answers: “Indeed, the return of the Azov leaders violates an existing agreement, and we will discuss this issue with Turkey and, in fact, we have already started talks on this issue,” presidential spokesman Dimitry Peskov told a news briefing. Russia says it wants “clarifications” from Ankara, and there has already been official phone calls on the issue. Azov Regiment Commander Denys Prokopenko, the man who for months led the final Azov holdout at Azovstal steel works plant, is now back in Ukraine a free man as a result of Zelensky’s intervention.Photo released by Zelensky with freed Azov fighters who had been held in Turkey as part of agreements with Russia.
Peskov continued in the terse words directed at Turkey: “It is extremely important that, unlike a number of states from the so-called collective West, Turkey maintains a dialogue with us and supports it at the highest levels.” Moscow’s position is that the Azov prisoners were to remain in Turkey until the close of the war. Peskov complained that Russia wasn’t informed.
“Nobody informed us about this. According to the terms of the agreement, these persons were supposed to stay on the territory of Türkiye until the end of the conflict,” Peskov asserted.
“We will be employing these channels for the dialogue, primarily to explain our stance, and will certainly be taking into account the current situation while concluding future agreements in various spheres.”
The remarks as well as subsequent state media reporting have further strongly suggested the release of Azov fighters by Turkey undermines and erodes trust and strong relations between Ankara and Moscow. Presidents Putin and Erdogan have throughout the Ukraine war maintained relatively tight, positive relations given the backdrop of the conflict, and Turkey’s place in NATO.
Turkey had previously played a leading role in prisoner swaps centered on Azov commanders and fighters that were holed up at Azovstal before Russian forces captured it last year. According to background in Politico:
The five commanders — from the 12th Ukrainian National Guard, its separate Azov regiment and the 36th Separate Marine Brigade of the Ukrainian army — were ordered to surrender to Russian forces in May 2022 after holding out for more than two months defending the the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol.
The Azovstal commanders, along with 2,500 Ukrainian servicemen, were taken into Russian captivity. The Kremlin labeled all of them Nazis, with some Russian officials even saying the Ukrainian soldiers deserved execution by hanging.
Zelensky had personally traveled to Istanbul where he met with Erdogan, and secured their release. The Ukrainian leader has been celebrating this as a triumph… “We are returning home from Turkey and bringing our heroes home,” announced Zelensky over the weekend. On Saturday he posted the following:
“Ukrainian soldiers Denys Prokopenko, Svyatoslav Palamar, Serhiy Volynsky, Oleh Khomenko, Denys Shleha. They will finally be with their relatives,” Zelensky had announced on Telegram. “We are returning home from Türkiye and bringing our heroes home,” he said, adding: “They will finally be with their relatives.”
Meanwhile, this could do further harm to the Turkey-brokered grain deal. Russia has been complaining to Turkey about the “inability of Western states” to carry out the grain deal, after it has already been hanging by a thread. Turkey is further seeking to give Russia security assurances, including the possibility of naval escorts, after Russia alleged Ukrainian aggression in the region of the Black Sea grain corridor.
END
GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES
We have been reporting on this for quite some time: COVID 19 is linked to a decline in sperm quality and quantity
(Zhang/EpochTimes)
COVID-19 Linked To Long-Term Decline In Sperm Quality: Study
MONDAY, JUL 10, 2023 – 11:40 PM
Authored by Jessie Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Months of exhaustion, persistent loss of taste and smell, blood clotting issues, and now low sperm count. The list of long-term side effects of COVID-19 continues to expand.
Men, even if their symptoms are mild, experience a decrease in semen quality up to three months after recovering, according to a new study.
“We assumed that semen quality would improve once new sperm were being generated,” said Rocio Núñez-Calonge, who holds a doctorate in biology and is a scientific advisor at UR International Group at the Scientific Reproduction Unit in Spain. “But this was not the case.”Researchers find that sperm quality did not improve even three months after their COVID diagnoses.(Rawpixel/Shutterstock)
Concerns About Permanent Damage and Febrility
The small study was conducted in Madrid, Spain, and examined 45 men with mild COVID-19 diagnoses.
Half of the participants experienced a 57 percent decrease in total sperm counts post-diagnosis. Sperm motility fell from 49 to 45 percent.
Additional findings showed a 20 percent reduction in semen volume, a 26.5 percent decrease in sperm concentration, and a decline in the number of live sperm from 80 to 76 percent.(Shutterstock)
Even 100 days after recovering from the infection, there was no noticeable improvement in sperm quality, despite the expected production of new sperm during that period.
“We do not know how long it might take for semen quality to be restored,” Ms. Núñez-Calonge said. “And it may be the case that COVID has caused permanent damage, even in men who suffered only a mild infection.”
There is no need for immediate concern, according to Dr. Carlos Calhaz-Jorge, a renowned fertility specialist in Portugal. The study shows the significance of long-term monitoring of fertility patients following a COVID-19 infection, even if it is mild, he noted.
“However, it’s important to note that the semen quality in these patients after a COVID infection is still within the World Health Organization’s criteria for ‘normal’ semen and sperm,” Dr. Calhaz-Jorge said. “So it is unclear whether these reductions in semen quality after a COVID infection translate into impaired fertility, and this should be the subject of further research.”
Cause of Semen Quality Decline Unknown
Ms. Núñez-Colange said that inflammation may be a contributing factor. “The inflammatory process can destroy germ cells by infiltrating the white blood cells involved in the immune system and reduce testosterone levels by affecting the interstitial cells that produce the male hormone,” she noted in a press release.
The researchers conducting the study have raised questions about the direct impact of SARS-CoV-2—the virus causing COVID-19—on the decline in semen quality.
“There are likely to be additional factors that contribute to long-term sperm parameters decrease, but whose identity is currently unknown,” Ms. Núñez-Colange added.
Doctors are also concerned about the potential long-term effects of COVID-19 vaccinations on sperm quality and fertility. “Everyone should be concerned,” said Dr. Jane Orient, an internal medicine doctor with over 40 years of clinical experience.
“We don’t have any long-term studies, and we can’t because the vaccines haven’t been around that long,” she added. “But there have been signals coming from fertility clinics—that they can’t make viable fetuses, and they’re also having trouble getting sperm to work. These are anecdotal reports.”
The study aims to investigate further and monitor the participants to assess whether the observed effects on fertility are temporary or permanent.
How to Maintain a Healthy Sperm Count
An extensive study conducted from 1973 to 2018 revealed a significant global decline in sperm count, linked to factors such as endocrine-disrupting chemicals and unhealthy lifestyles.
As endocrine-disrupting chemicals and unhealthy lifestyle behaviors are two of the main reasons behind declining sperm count, Shanna Swan, a leading environmental and reproductive epidemiologist holding a doctorate in statistics and author of the study, said people can start by working on reducing those exposures.
Read more here…
end
END
GLOBAL ISSUES//
Global economy:
END
VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
What? 10th COVID infection yet took 4 shots (quadruple)? The Australian Queensland person says she wants more shots to help her? She wants a 5th? Problem is, many like her abound, misguided, gullible
I do not blame her, she is following ORDERS by her totalitarian Aussie moronic government, I blame the criminal Aussie doctors who think that a 5th shot will help her; corrupted doctors (EUGYPPIUS)
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 11 |
Praise to Jordan Schachtel:
‘Via Jordan Schachtel, I present you the case of fully-vaccinated-and-then-some Gold Coast resident Marion Carrett, who believes she has had ten documented Covid infections since 2022.
END
Did Stanley et al. show a seven-fold rise in incidence of Stevens-Johnson syndrome & toxic epidermal necrolysis linked to the mRNA technology based COVID vaccine? Yes!
This is the largest case series exploring possible associations between COVID, the vaccine and SJS/TEN; Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS) / toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) is a rare, life threatening…
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 10 |
SOURCE:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305417923001286
END
What killed Brian? Trinidadian Tobagonian Brian Stone dies suddenly playing tennis! I warned Trinidadians about COVID vaccine, I said no healthy adult or child must take, sadly many more Trinidadians
& Tobagonians WILL die, not if, who took COVID vaccine! I told you it was unsafe, I told you on my brother’s show (Phillip); it was never safety tested, never needed, ‘silent myocarditis’ WILL kill
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 10 |
Did he die from the effects of the vaccine? Did Brian come to know that he was in danger? And was he an angel trying to warn us, warn Caribbean people of the danger of the vaccine? His place is booked in heaven.
Will his family demand autopsy? Will the results be made public? Will they stain for spike protein? Will the proper testing to assess if the death was due to the vaccine be done?
END
Dr. Peter McCullough: ‘COVID-19 Vaccine is the Culprit in Majority Found Dead after Injection: Systemic Review of 325 Autopsies Finds Convincing Evidence–Lancet Censors Paper’
Dr. McCullough weighs in on the censorship and cancel culture at LANCET journal as they moved to silence us in telling the truth about the COVID vaccine causing deaths (using secondary data)
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 11 |
‘As government and public health officials squirm with more published deaths coming out on a daily basis, the final retort of “you cannot prove the vaccine caused the death” has just been blown out of the water!
Hulscher et al have published the largest accumulation of autopsy result in deaths after COVID-19 vaccination. From a total of 325 cases, independent review found the COVID-19 vaccine was the cause of death in 73.9%. The vast majority had the cardiovascular system as the single fatal organ system injury to the body.
New Zenodo link to manuscript as of July 6, 2023’
Nicolas Hulscher, BS, Paul E. Alexander, PhD, Richard Amerling, MD, Heather Gessling, MD, Roger Hodkinson, MD, William Makis, MD, Harvey A. Risch, MD, PhD, Mark Trozzi, MD, & Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH. (2023). A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW OF AUTOPSY FINDINGS IN DEATHS AFTER COVID-19 VACCINATION. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8120771
Courageous Discourse™ with Dr. Peter McCullough & John Leake
COVID-19 Vaccine is the Culprit in Majority Found Dead after Injection
By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH As government and public health officials squirm with more published deaths coming out on a daily basis, the final retort of “you cannot prove the vaccine caused the death” has just been blown out of the water! Hulscher et al have published the largest accumulation of autopsy result in deaths after COVID-19 vaccination. From a total of 325 cases, independent review found the COVID-19 vaccine was the cause of death in 73.9%. The vast majority had the cardiovascular system as the single fatal organ system injury to the body…
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| CDC Caught Faking Death Certificates to Hide Covid Shot ReferencesThe U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been caught faking death certificates to conceal references to Covid shots causing fatalities, a bombshell new report has revealed.READ MORE |
| Mel Gibson Issues Warning about Hollywood: ‘Worst Nightmares Were Real’An interview has surfaced featuring star Mel Gibson where the actor tried to warn the public about Hollywood.READ MORE |
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EVOL NEWS
| Trump & Mel Gibson Meet, Vow to End Elite PedophiliaREAD MORE… |
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| LATEST NEWS: |
VACCINE IMPACT/
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0991 DOWN 0.0014
USA/ YEN 140.36 DOWN 0.947 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2908 UP 0.0043
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3275 UP .0007 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 7 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 17.67 PTS OR 0.55%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 180.11 PTS OR 0.97%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.51% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY GREEN EXCEPT LONDON
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY ALL GREEN EXCEPT LONDON
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 180.11 PTS OR 0.97%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17,67 PTS OR 0.55%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.51%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 13.84 PTS OR 0.04%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1936.25
silver:$23.15
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 101.53 DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s close.
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.381% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.456 % DOWN 0 AND 5//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.650 DOWN 4 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.413 UP 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6460 DOWN 1/2 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0992 DOWN 0.0014 or 14 basis points
USA/Japan: 140.52 DOWN 0.789 OR YEN UP 79 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2890 UP 0.0031 OR 31 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0019 OR 19 BASIS pts to 1.3256
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.2102
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2196)
TURKISH LIRA: 26.13 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.456…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 in basis points from MONDAY at 3.986% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.020 DOWN 2 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 8.73 points or 0.12%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 117.18 PTS OR 0.75%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 76.32 PTS OR 1.07%
Spain IBEX UP 48.20 PTS OR 0.85%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 189.59 PTS OR 0.68%
WTI Oil price 74.65 12: EST
Brent Oil: 79.40 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 90.30 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 11//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.6460 UP 1/2 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.7070 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.1005 DOWN 0.0003 OR 3 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2928 UP .0065 or 65 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.699 % UP 3 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 140.43 DOWN 0.883 //YEN UP 88 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3260 DOWN .0034 CDN dollar, UP 34 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 74.87
Brent OIL: 79.41
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS pts to 3.982%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS PTS to 4.019%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 3 PTS AT 4.887%
USA dollar index: 101.37 DOWN 27 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.11 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 90.38 UP 0 AND 3/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 209.52 PTS OR 0.62%
NASDAQ 100 UP 8.79 PTS OR 0.58%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.07 UP .24 PTS (1.62)%
GLD: $178.78 UP 0.14 OR 0.03%
SLV/ $21.24 UP .06 OR 0.28%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:
Massive Short-Squeeze Sends Small Caps Soaring; Gold Up, USD Dn Ahead Of CPI
TUESDAY, JUL 11, 2023 – 04:00 PM
With all eyes on tomorrow’s CPI print (and Friday’s Nasdaq rebalance), what was left for traders but to bugger about in Small Caps, squeezing shorts, and playing gamma-grab-ass.
‘Most Shorted’ stocks have exploded 11.5% higher from Thursday’s lows – far outpacing the 10%-in-5-days into June’s month-end…
Source: Bloomberg
Small Caps benefited most from this squeeze-gasm, but all the majors ended green as FOMO struck in the last few minutes…
Small Caps underperformed Nasdaq once again as the ratio breaks interim support…
Under the hood, 0-DTE traders pushed aggressively against the uptrend in Small Caps early on… but that failed and they were forced to cover – juicing Russell 2000 in the afternoon…
Treasuries were mixed (and quiet) today with the short-end underperforming (2Y +3bps, 30Y -1bps), but the whole curve remains lower on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar pushed back to its mid-June lows (this was the lowest Dollar Index close since 5/10/23)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin spiked up to $31,000 last night and then puked back but has been slowly bid all day, never breaking down to $30,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold managed to hold on to gains today – but do you notice pattern…
Oil surged to the upper-end of its recent trading range with WTI testing $75…
Finally, Bloomberg notes that 3-mo bill yields are back at the highs of late May in anticipation of another Federal Reserve rate hike. You can lend to the US government for three months at 5.44%, which is exactly what you’d get from lending to single A rated corporates for more than 10 years (the average maturity of the Bloomberg US Agg A index).
Additionally, the spread between the earnings yield on the S&P 500 and three-month bills, already the worst since the dot-com bust, has fallen to a fresh low…
Source: Bloomberg
On that basis, the most expensive sectors are info tech and consumer discretionary, which have earnings yields more than 200 bps lower than the yield on bills. For info tech, that’s comparable to the end of 2000.
b) THIS MORNING TRADING
END
II) USA DATA/
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
The truth behind Bidenomics
(Andy Puzder)
Puzder: Bidenomics Spin Vs. Economic Reality
TUESDAY, JUL 11, 2023 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Andy Puzder via NationalReview.com,
Americans, particularly working- and middle-class Americans, are poorer today than they were during the Trump administration…
President Biden is on a “Bidenomics” tour, trumpeting what he claims are his administration’s economic gains. His effort comes as no surprise. In the RealClearPolitics average of the polls, only about 38 percent of Americans approve of Biden’s job on the economy. To date, the Biden administration’s efforts to convince Americans otherwise have fallen way short of the mark. The problems lie not with Biden’s rhetoric but rather with his policies — and economic reality.
Case in point: In an effort to avoid responsibility for a still-surging inflation rate while claiming credit for slowing it, Biden’s economic team recently posted a video boldly stating, “Here Are the Facts.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/puzder-bidenomics-spin-vs-economic-reality
The first of these purported facts is, “Under the Biden Harris Administration Inflation Has Fallen.” Unfortunately, that’s just not true.
The annual inflation rate when Biden took office was 1.4 percent. In May, it was 4 percent, or nearly three times the rate he inherited and still double the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target rate.
Here’s an actual fact: “Under the Biden Harris Administration Inflation Has Risen.”
Of course, what the Biden team is attempting to take credit for is the decline in the inflation rate from its 9.1 percent peak in June of 2022.
The Biden video goes on to claim that “inflation is less than half what it was last summer.”
That claim is misleading for two reasons.
First, inflation continues to increase, inflicting greater and greater pain on consumers. Only the rate at which inflation is increasing has slowed. Keep in mind that inflation is cumulative; much like compound interest, it just keeps adding up. After a large increase in the prior year, it is not particularly impressive that the current year increase will be lower, but that lower number comes on top of — or in addition to — the prior year’s number. For example, the 4 percent increase this May was on top of last May’s 8.3 percent increase for a two-year increase of nearly 13 percent. That’s nothing to boast about.
In fact, since Biden took office, inflation has increased by about 16 percent. If inflation slowed to zero through the rest of Biden’s presidency, that would still be the largest increase for any four-year presidential term since the 1980s — a fact that somehow didn’t make it into the Biden video.
Second, the inflation rate slowed because the Federal Reserve dramatically increased interest rates, not because of any Biden economic policies. In reality, rather than slowing the current inflationary surge, Bidenomics was a primary cause. This surge began the very month Democrats passed Biden’s ironically named $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan. Prior to the bill’s passage, Larry Summers, the secretary of the Treasury under President Clinton, warned that it could “set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation.”
And it did.
That inflationary pressure compelled the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates at a historic pace over the past 15 months — from near zero to a 5 percent–5.25 percent range today. The consequences have been severe, leading to three of the four largest bank failures in our nation’s history, undermining the banking sector’s integrity, threatening our financial stability, and requiring federal intervention. Buying a home or a car, paying down credit cards, or getting a small-business loan are all more difficult, which puts additional economic pressure on Americans as interest rates rise.
For that series of events, the Biden–Harris administration actually does deserve credit.
And we aren’t out of the woods. As Fed chairman Jerome Powell stated recently in testimony before Congress, “Inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go.” Powell also expressed frustration with inflation’s persistence, despite the Fed having significantly increased interest rates: “Inflation has consistently surprised us, and essentially all other forecasters, by being more persistent than expected and I think we’ve come to expect . . . it to be more persistent.” As a result, the Fed is expected to raise rates two more times this year.
Slowing the economy and bringing inflation down would be easier if the Biden administration and the Fed did not appear to be working at cross purposes. Powell regularly emphasizes the need to slow the economy to bring inflation down. Biden, on the other hand, continues to tout how his big-government spending policies — Bidenomics — are growing the economy, in effect conceding that his massive government spending policies are what’s driving inflation — but clearly not what’s causing it to slow.
The Biden video’s final claim is that, “Wages are up, accounting for inflation, that’s real breathing room.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/puzder-bidenomics-spin-vs-economic-reality
On its face, this claim is also not true. When Biden took office in January of 2021, real average hourly earnings — that is average hourly earnings adjusted for inflation — were $11.39. As of May 2023, that number had declined to $11.03. That simply doesn’t feel like breathing room for most Americans.
Inflation is a regressive tax that hurts families more the less money they have. The fact is that Americans, particularly working- and middle-class Americans, are poorer today than they were during the Trump administration, and Biden’s approval rating on the economy reflects that reality. Bidenomics — more accurately “Spin-enomics” — is an effort to convince them otherwise, asking them to ignore their eyes and wallets. It’s a tough sell.
ANDY PUZDER is the former CEO of CKE Restaurants, the executive chairman of 2ndVote Advisers, Inc., and a senior visiting fellow at the Heritage Foundation.
END
US Consumers Are Suffering In A Less Than “Robust” Economy
TUESDAY, JUL 11, 2023 – 05:45 AM
Keynesian policies are damaging what they were intended to support. No example is more evident than the United States. A few years ago, in 2021, I had a conversation with Judy Shelton where she said that the recovery would be much stronger without the stimulus package, and she was right. Massive government spending and currency printing have left a much weaker labor market and poorer citizens.
In June, nonfarm payrolls increased by 209,000, the smallest advance since the end of 2020, after two consecutive downward revisions in the prior months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). If we look at employment statistics beyond the headline unemployment rate, we can see that the labor force participation rate was 62.6 percent for the fourth consecutive month, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.3 percent, was unchanged over the month, according to the BLS. Both measures remain below pre-pandemic levels (63.3% and 61.1%, respectively) after years of enormous entitlement and spending programs.
Workers are not satisfied, and there is a reason for it.
All the money printing has created elevated inflation and a recovery where the United States has seen 26 consecutive months of negative real wage growth. We have not seen such a negative recovery for American workers in decades.
U.S. citizens are surviving on record levels of debt. Credit card debt, according to the Federal Reserve, reached a record high in the first quarter of 2023, while personal savings as a percentage of disposable income remain well below pre-pandemic levels at 4.6%, a massive 44.7% decline from the figure at the end of 2019. Real retail and food service sales bounced after the re-opening of the economy but remain below the April 2022 peak and are down in six of the last seven months.
It is no surprise that the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is still 40% below the level prior to the COVID crisis slump.
We have to put these poor figures in the context of a so-called “stimulus” that built a federal deficit that surpassed the $7 trillion mark between 2020 and the first quarter of 2023. We often read the MMT nonsense that deficits are reserves for the private sector and a tool for growth and prosperity.
The reality is that American workers are much worse off and need to work harder to make ends meet as the inflationary tax eats away at their savings and wages.
Of course, the excuse is to say that without the massive U.S. government spending plan, things would be much worse, but that is typical counterfactual nonsense. These large government spending plans were not created to mitigate a weak recovery, but as a tool to strengthen and accelerate it. And the reality is that the recovery is weaker than the historical trend, real wage growth is negative, and debt is much higher. Thus, in terms of return on invested capital, the stimulus plan has detracted from a recovery that was already evident simply because of the re-opening of the economy.
We can also argue that the stimulus plan financed with newly created currency in the middle of a lockdown has been the main cause of inflation, as the studies of Claudio Borio and others have demonstrated (“an upsurge in money growth preceded the inflation flare-up, and countries with stronger money growth saw markedly higher inflation,” BIS Bulletin, No. 67, January 26, 2023).
Why am I discussing these figures? Because the backlash from these stimulus plans will likely lead to a recession, the government will present itself again as the solution with yet another multi-trillion-dollar misguided measure. However, this time the ability to increase the deficit is simply not there, as even the most optimistic estimates see a $14 trillion accumulated deficit through 2032 with the current budget proposals.
The next stimulus plan may lead to a huge debt-deflation spiral Japan-style if population aging and de-industrialization continue, or even worse, stagflation if the government decides again to use the misguided stimulus checks. You got $1,000 from the government, and the inflationary tax took $3,000 from you.
It is evident that we have reached the point of debt saturation, where new stimulus packages simply generate no multiplier effect but make citizens poorer until the next one makes things even worse.
Someday, policymakers may start to realize that progress comes from saving and prudent investment, not spending and debt.
end
DISNEY
Where is everyone? A good indicator that the consumer is tapped out
(zerohedge)
Where Is Everyone? Disney World “Just About Empty”
TUESDAY, JUL 11, 2023 – 08:45 AM
A trip to Walt Disney World or Disneyland with the whole family is too expensive. Former and current Walt Disney Company CEO Bob Iger recently admitted customer affordability issues at an investor conference. And the direct consequences of price-gouging families, plus the ‘woke’ backlash, might have led to one of the slowest periods at Walt Disney World in Orlando on July 4 in a decade.
The Wall Street Journal cited new data from Touring Plans, a company that tracks wait times at theme parks, which reported Disney World and Disneyland in California had significantly lower wait times to get on rides on Independence Day weekend.
According to Touring Plans, Disney’s Hollywood Studios theme park in Central Florida experienced the third-slowest day in the past year. The average wait time at the Magic Kingdom park was around 27 minutes, down from 31 minutes in 2022 and 47 minutes in 2019. Source: WSJ
“It’s something that nobody would have predicted—just unfathomable,” said Len Testa, a Touring Plans data analyst.
Disney executives have warned about expected weaker earnings from the US park segment. Days ago, KeyBanc Capital Markets downgraded Disney over fears of stalled growth due to lower attendance at its theme parks and lower streaming viewership.
Disney’s market capitalization has been halved since peaking at $335 billion in March 2021.
To stoke demand, WSJ noted, “The Orlando-area resort is even offering hotel discounts around Christmas, typically a peak period.”
The drastic slowdown in visitors at its US parks comes as the company hiked prices and eliminated complimentary amenities.
Stephanie Oprea, an Atlanta-based senior planner and director of marketing for Pixie Travel, an agency focused on Disney vacations, said rising park costs had led some families to vacation elsewhere.
“People might be a little bit fatigued with price increases based on the economy at the moment,” Oprea said, adding clients ditched Disney’s parks for cruise or beach vacations because of high prices.
CEO Iger recently told investors at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media, and Telecom Conference that price increases at theme parks had become too aggressive.
Meanwhile, a Star Wars-themed hotel at Walt Disney World is set to close in the coming months because of lackluster demand. Two guests can expect to pay $4,800 for a two-night package at the hotel. Add kids, and prices are just absurd.
Sliding park demand could be due to a combination of an affordability crisis and backlash sparked by Disney’s woke political agenda. We wonder what happens after student loan repayments restart in Sept..
end
Cash strapped consumers cutting back on toilet paper and toothpaste. Huge sign that the consumer is in trouble
(zerohedge)
Cash-Strapped Consumers Cut Back On Toilet Paper And Toothpaste
TUESDAY, JUL 11, 2023 – 09:25 AM
Cash-strapped consumers are cutting back on personal hygiene products, according to Bloomberg. It’s yet another sign, after two years of negative real wage growth, depleted personal savings, and record amounts of credit card debt, the supposedly ‘strong’ consumer under ‘Bidenomics‘ continues to crack under the heavy weight of a once-in-a-generation inflation storm.
Data from NIQ, which tracks retail sales, reveals consumers are decreasing their spending on personal hygiene products, like toilet paper, toothpaste, and laundry detergent. Sales for those items in the 52 weeks through June 24 were down 3% to 4%.
“The strains that the consumer is under have been exacerbated over the last couple of months,” Morningstar analyst Erin Lash told Bloomberg. She noted a reduction in food assistance programs, lower tax returns, and the end of stimulus checks are some of the reasons for faltering consumers. Also, as we noted in the intro, inflation outpaces wage growth for two years and has crushed households, forcing many to drain savings and rack up enormous credit card debt in a high-rate environment.
Hollie Ernst, a single mother of two daughters from Oak Park, Illinois, said she traded down name-brand toothpaste for generic cheaper ones. The 48yo single mother of two daughters has stopped buying Aveeno lotion because of the high price and uses Vaseline instead.
“Cash doesn’t stretch as far as it used to,” said Ernst, adding she still has to use her credit card to make ends meet despite reducing her supermarket bill. She said, “I just accepted that’s the way it is.”
Ernst is just one of the tens of millions of Americans suffering while the Biden administration parades around the country, touting the successes of ‘Bidenomics.’ New credit card data on Monday showed debt-funded consumers hit a brick wall.
Some Americans have been forced into a Venezuelan-like lifestyle as ‘dumpster dining‘ takes off to save on grocery bills. The more fortunate consumers have been forced to trade down from Walmart to Dollar Tree for groceries.
… and wait until September rolls around, when millions of Americans will be forced to begin repaying their student loans.
end
Biden seeks to end the cheaper ACA (Obamacare) alternatives. This no doubt will be smacked down again by the Supreme Court
(zerohedge)
Biden Seeks To End Cheaper Obamacare Alternatives, Expect Another Supreme Court Smackdown
MONDAY, JUL 10, 2023 – 05:40 PM
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
Biden’s efforts to produce more inflation are nonstop, 24×7.
His latest move is a set of regulations to force people into Obamacare despite the fact a District Court already ruled against his proposed regulations.
Biden Attempts to Make Healthcare Even More Expensive
To understand what Biden wants to do, and why the Supreme Court is likely to smack it down, we need to review a District Court ruling from 2020.
On July 24, 2020, CATO reported In a Win for Consumers, a Court Ruling Affirms the Legality of Short‐Term Health Insurance Plans
The ACA dramatically increased health insurance premiums in the “individual” market, where consumers purchase coverage directly from insurers. Yet Congress deliberately chose not to apply the ACA’s regulations to “short‐term, limited duration insurance,” which can therefore offer lower premiums. As ACA premiums rose, many consumers flocked to STLDI plans.
One such consumer was 61‐year‐old Arizona resident Jeanne Balvin. In 2017, Balvin purchased an STLDI plan from UnitedHealthcare for $274 per month. It covered the entire cost of her emergency surgery for diverticulitis, minus a $2,500 deductible. Had she purchased an ACA plan, her premium would have been three times as high and her deductible in the range of $6,000.
Prior to 2016, Balvin could have purchased an STLDI plan that lasted an entire year. In the hope of forcing people into ACA plans, however, the Obama administration imposed a rule in 2016 that required insurers to throw STLDI enrollees out of their plans after just three months. The Trump administration reversed this rule and expressly stated that nothing in federal law prevents insurers from making STLDI plans from offering renewable, and therefore continuous, coverage.
Enter the Association for Community Affiliated Plans, a lobbying group representing private insurance companies that sell ACA plans. Complaining that STLDI plans were cutting into their business, ACAP asked federal courts to remedy that “injury” by reinstating this heartless rule.
On July 17, a divided panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit ruled in favor of STLDI enrollees. The court found the administration’s reversal of the Obama rule was reasonable, not least because stripping coverage from these patients means they “could be denied a new policy ‘based on preexisting medical conditions.’”
Jam City, Dateline July 7, 2023
The Wall Street Journal comments on Biden’s Short-Sighted New Health Rule
Behold the President’s plan to limit short-term health insurance plans in order to jam more consumers into the heavily subsidized and regulated ObamaCare exchanges. The Health and Human Services, Labor and Treasury Departments on Friday proposed rules to roll back the Trump Administration’s expansion of short-term, limited-duration insurance (STLDI) plans. Since 2018 these plans have been available in 12-month increments, and consumers have been able to renew them for up to 36 months.
These plans are especially attractive to young people whose employers don’t provide coverage. Why would a healthy 26-year-old want to pay for maternity, pediatric and other services he probably won’t use in the near future?
The Inflation Reduction Act sweetened ObamaCare’s insurance premium tax credits that are tied to income. As a result, a 60-year-old making just above four times the poverty level has to pay only 8.5% of his income toward his insurance premium while the government picks up the rest. If premiums increase, government is on the hook for more.
But after the Inflation Reduction Act’s enhanced subsidies expire in 2025, consumers will be in for sticker-shock. Hence, the Administration is trying to drive more young, healthy people back into the exchanges by reinstating a four-month cap on short-term plans and prohibiting renewals. Presto: A free market for insurance that competes with the ObamaCare exchanges disappears.
As with his backdoor ban on gas-powered cars, President Biden is limiting health insurance choice and competition in the name of protecting consumers from something they want to buy.
Obamacare is Junk
On June 29, 2023, before the above details emerged, CATO wrote Dear Health Reporters: Prep for Biden’s Proposed Rule on Short‐Term Plans
First of all, ObamaCare is the junk coverage here. Economic research shows ObamaCare’s preexisting‐conditions “protections” have eroded coverage at a cost to sick patients of thousands of dollars per year, and even “currently healthy consumers cannot be adequately insured.” ObamaCare has caused individual‐market provider networks to narrow significantly since 2013, when network breadth reflected consumer preferences. ObamaCare premiums are skyrocketing to the point where Congress is offering subsidies to households earning $600,000 per year. STLDI plans offer more flexibility and choice, protect conscience rights, offer broader provider networks, cost up to 70 percent less than ObamaCare plans, and can even reduce ObamaCare premiums by improving ObamaCare’s risk pools.
If Biden tries to eliminate standalone renewal guarantees, he may trigger a lawsuit. The Public Health Service Act grants the federal government no authority at all to regulate those novel insurance products.
13 Years of Obamacare
On March 30, 2023, the Washington Examiner reported Thirteen years of Obamacare Increasing Healthcare Costs.
The Affordable Care Act turned 13 last week, and I was asked to provide testimony before the House Committee on Ways and Means on how the law, as well as several recent expansions of it, failed to make healthcare more affordable. Here is a slightly modified version of what I told Congress.
The ACA has caused premiums to soar. Individual market premiums more than doubled in the first four years after its implementation, yet plans covered fewer doctors and hospitals. By 2021, the average ACA plan premium plus deductible for a family of four was about $25,000.
Since coverage is cost prohibitive, most enrollees need extremely large subsidies to afford these plans. Taxpayers pay for more than 80% of the premium on average and pick up almost all the cost of premium increases over time. This gives insurers significant pricing power and in turn leads to higher premiums — an inflationary spiral.
As government’s role in healthcare has expanded, prices have skyrocketed. Hospital prices have increased more than any other major economic sector, rising three times faster than inflation since 2000.
Both the American Rescue Plan Act and the Inflation Reduction Act expanded the ACA’s already substantial subsidies. Most of the benefit went to people who already had coverage . Families with incomes well above $250,000 now qualify for large subsidies. The expanded subsidies incentivize employers to drop workplace coverage, raising government’s overall deficits. And all the new spending on the expanded subsidies also increases inflation.
The Supreme Court is guaranteed to strike down this latest bit of regulatory overreach by the Biden administration.
Here are some recent Supreme Court smackdowns.
- June 29, 2023: Supreme Court Rules Race-Conscious Admissions at Harvard and UNC are Unconstitutional
- June 30, 2023: Supreme Court Strikes Down Student Debt Cancellation, Cites Nancy Pelosi
- July 2, 2023: The Wealth Tax Idea Is Headed for Sudden Death in the Supreme Court
Don’t expect any relief from nonsensical proposals. By now, it should be clear Biden’s regulatory madness is endless.
* * *
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END
END
USA// COVID
SWAMP STORIES
Not Weaponized? Biden DOJ Indicts Whistleblower Prepared To Testify Against 1st Family
TUESDAY, JUL 11, 2023 – 10:05 AM
An Israeli whistleblower was indicted by the Biden administration days after detailing extraordinary allegations against the Biden family.
Dr. Gal Luft, the “missing witness” from the Biden corruption investigation, told the NY Post last week that he was arrested in Cyprus to stop him from testifying in front of the House Oversight Committee that the Biden family received payments from individuals linked to Chinese military intelligence, and that they had an FBI mole who shared classified information with the Biden benefactors from the China-controlled energy company CEFC.
“I told the DOJ that Hunter was associated with a very senior retired FBI official who had a distinct physical characteristic—he had one eye,” Luft said.
That FBI official is widely believed to be former FBI Director Louis Freeh, who gave $100,000 to a trust for two of then-Vice President Joe Biden’s grandchildren in 2016 shortly before telling Hunter, “I would be delighted to do future work with you.”
Now, Biden’s DOJ has charged Luft with failing to register under the Foreign Agents Act (FARA), as well as Iranian sanctions violations. He’s alleged to have conspired with others to act in China’s interest, including recruiting and paying a former high ranking U.S. government official to support policies beneficial to China.
Luft was also charged with conspiracy to illegally sell weapons to Chinese individuals and companies, as well as aerial bombs and rockets to the UAE, Chinese weapons to Kenya, and Iranian oil to other countries in violation of sanctions.
He was initially arrested Feb. 17 in Cyprus, but fled after being released on bail. He faces up to 100 years in prison if convicted.
“As alleged, the defendant engaged in multiple schemes to evade sanctions and laws intended to protect our national security,” said FBI Acting Assistant Director in Charge, Christie m. Curtis.
As the Epoch Times notes;
Mr. Luft had been an advisor to CEFC China Energy, and told FBI prosecutors in Brussels in 2019 that CEFC had given Mr. Hunter Biden and his uncle James Biden monthly payments of $100,000 and $65,000 in exchange for using their names to promote Chinese business interests, according to the Post.
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) said on Fox News recently that Mr. Luft should have the opportunity to testify on this case before Congress.
“He’s an important witness,” Mr. Johnson said.
House Republicans have been probing the financial dealings of the Biden family amid allegations cited by House Oversight and Accountability Committee Chairman James Comer that Mr. Hunter Biden received at least $15 million from foreign nationals.
The House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith says Mr. Hunter Biden is alleged to have received more than $17 million from sources in Ukraine, Romania, and China.
Earlier this year, an Internal Revenue Service (IRS) whistleblower came forth with allegations of government abuse from the Justice Department and IRS, showing preferential treatment for the U.S. President’s son.
U.S. Attorney for the District of Delaware David Weiss and Attorney General Merrick Garland have denied these claims.
Mr. Hunter Biden is also involved in an ongoing lawsuit and countersuit involving the laptop he abandoned in a Delaware computer repair shop.
John Paul Mac Isaac, the repairman, sued Mr. Hunter Biden last year for $1.5 million in damages, alleging defamation.
Mr. Mac Isaac says Mr. Hunter Biden’s claims that the laptop had been stolen or hacked included a narrative that Mr. Mac Isaac was party to a Russian disinformation campaign.
And of course, look at who’s helping the Biden regime:
END
THE KING REPORT
| The King Report July 11, 2023 Issue 7029 | Independent View of the News |
| Tesla China Sales Up 20.6% Sequentially, Outpacing China’s Overall 8.7% Rise In Sales China Slides to Brink of Deflation, Adding Stimulus UrgencyCPI was 0% y/y in June, lowest rate in more than 2 yearsProducer price deflation deepens to worst since December 2015China’s consumer inflation rate eases to zero in June while factory-gate prices fall further, adding to concerns about the threat of deflation… https://t.co/cvqu6Vtipw China central bank extends policies for financial support of real estate market https://t.co/3kL3dsfKGw China’s Economy Is in Big Trouble and Investors Should Get Out: Miles Yu “China has been playing hard to get for the last several months and they would not talk. Now they relented and agreed to talk with high-level American cabinet members on matters that are vital to both nations’ economies,” Mr. Yu said in an interview with EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders: NOW.” “The reason why they relented is because China’s economy is in big trouble,” Mr. Yu told host Jan Jekielek. “They need the West much more than the West needs China. So they’re being a little bit more realistic this time.”… https://t.co/h0RayHcB44 Fed VCEO for Supervision Barr: Rates are close to restrictive but Fed still has work to do. Cleveland Fed President Mester: The Fed will need to tighten somewhat further.The Fed’s policy is less restrictive compared to history.Inflation is stubbornly high and progress on core prices is stalled.Core inflation gains are too high and too broad based.Wage pressures remain too high to get inflation back to 2%.I would have hiked rates in July; but I understand why the Fed didn’t act. After the above hawkish comments, Mester inexplicably asserts, “I haven’t decided yet on the need for a July rate hike, need more data.” You’d hike in June, but now you need more data to hike in July!?!? Fed’s Daly Says a ‘Couple More’ Rate Hikes Appropriate in 2023Daly says data have come in surprisingly strong this yearSan Francisco Fed chief says future moves depend on dataSan Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the US central bank will likely need to raise interest rates a couple more times to return inflation to its goal… https://t.co/Br9JUv2HwF In the afternoon, liberal Atlanta Fed President Bostic issued dovish comments.Rate moves have been knife edge calls, July to be the sameUnderlying inflation data is telling “a very positive story.”Could see inflation getting to 2% without more rate hikes NY Fed: SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS Median inflation expectations declined for the third consecutive month at the one-year-ahead horizon from 4.1% in May to 3.8% in June, the lowest reading since April 2021… Median home price growth expectations increased for the fifth consecutive month from 2.6% in May to 2.9% in June, the highest reading since July 2022… Perceptions about households’ current financial situations improved in June with more respondents reporting being better off than a year ago and fewer respondents reporting being worse off. Similarly, year-ahead expectations improved with fewer respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now and more respondents expecting to be better off. https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2023/20230710 Nasdaq 100 Plans Special Rebalance to Curb Dominance of ‘Magnificent Seven’ The magnificent seven stocks fell Monday…The Nasdaq 100 special rebalance will take place before the market open on Monday, July 24, to “address overconcentration in the index by redistributing the weights.” The weighting changes will be announced on Friday, July 14… https://t.co/7r5fzVxyLn @charliebilello: Manufacturing Construction Spending in the US continues to hit new highs, increasing 76% over the last year. https://t.co/k9imXeVv8N ESUs rallied during early Nikkei trading on Monday but peaked at 19:00 ET. ESUs and stocks then sank until China closed at 2 ET. The usual rally for the European opening appeared; but sellers ended the rally within 9 minutes. ESUs sank until 3:30 ET. The usual suspects then aggressively got long ESUs and stocks for the expected Monday rally and on pattern buying for US Q2 results season. ESUs hit a daily high of 4446.75 at 10:06 ET. Two more attempts to breakout failed at 4446.75, creating a triple top. Traders quickly recognized the failure and sold stuff. ESUs found a bottom of 4424.00 at 12:08 ET. A Noon Balloon generated a 15-handle ESU rally. ESUs expanded the rally by three handles in the early afternoon. ESUs and stocks then traded sideways until someone manipulated ESUs 14 handles higher during the final 10 minutes of trading. Yes, Virginia, the SEC is a sad joke! Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied on buying for the Monday rally and the looming Q2 earnings season Bonds were +10/32 at the NYSE close Negative aspects of previous session Fangs got hammered on the Nasdaq 100 report Ambiguous aspects of previous session When will defensive asset allocators finish unwinding losing positions? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4404.07 Previous session High/Low: 4412.60; 4389.92 @nickgerli1: The commercial real estate crash is happening. Values for office, retail, and apartment buildings are already down -11%. Morgan Stanley thinks values could crash -40% when all is said and done. Big problem for US Economy… The problem is that there is a $1.4 trillion “Wall of Commercial Debt” coming due in next couple years. Most of this debt is held by banks. And a lot of it will go into default and be foreclosed on… We’re already seeing owners of office buildings, malls, and apartments “walk away” from their properties. And had back keys to the lender. In some cases, the values have gone down 50-60% below what they paid for the property… Small banks hold so many commercial real estate loans that they account for an insane 37% of their deposit base. $1.9 Trillion CRE Loans / $5.2 trillion Deposits. No other loan type comes even close… https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1678451037777084416 @texasrunnerDFW: In 1982, 53% of 30 year olds owned a home. In 2022, 33% of 30 year olds own a home. The cost of economic policies in our country is increasingly burdening our young. Chart credit @RickPalaciosJr https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1674482274450939906 Disney theme parks surprisingly empty this summer as ticket prices remain high https://t.co/MOP5v2TAbe Turkey dictator Erdogan has finally gotten off the fence to support Sweden’s bid for NATO membership. Erdogan, who had been playing footsie with Putin for several years, now believes Putin is diminished. Today – We opined that traders would play for the Monday rally and operators would get long for Q2 earnings season. We also said the impediment in the road this week is the June CPI Report tomorrow. So, traders will play for a rally today; but short-term traders are likely to liquidate during the final hour to minimize exposure to a June CPI surprise. ESUs are +1.00 at 20:35 ET. Expected economic data: June NFIB Small Business Optimism 89.9 S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4258; 100-day MA: 4146; 150-day MA: 4087; 200-day MA: 4015 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,664; 100-day MA: 33,367; 150-day MA: 33,459; 200-day MA: 32,993 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is negative, MACD is positive – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4220.30 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4363.60 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4423.41 triggers a buy signal The liberal Axios joins the parade against The Big Guy: Old Yeller: Biden’s Private Fury In public, President Biden likes to whisper to make a point. In private, he’s prone to yelling. Behind closed doors, Biden has such a quick-trigger temper that some aides try to avoid meeting alone with him. Some take a colleague, almost as a shield against a solo blast. The president’s admonitions include: “God dammit, how the f**k don’t you know this?!,” “Don’t f**king bullsh*t me!” and “Get the f**k out of here!” — according to current and former Biden aides who have witnessed and been on the receiving end of such outbursts… Why it matters: The private eruptions paint a more complicated picture of Biden as a manager and president than his carefully cultivated image as a kindly uncle who loves Aviator sunglasses and ice cream… Jeff Connaughton, a former Biden campaign and Senate aide who was chief of staff to Kaufman when he filled Biden’s seat in the Senate, wrote about Biden’s temper in his 2012 book on Washington corruption, “The Payoff: Why Wall Street Wins.” Connaughton wrote that as a senator, Biden was an “egomaniacal autocrat … determined to manage his staff through fear.”… https://www.axios.com/2023/07/10/biden-temper-us-president?s=02 @RNCResearch: Flashback to 1987, when Joe Biden freaked out at a man who asked him where he went to law school. The entirety of Biden’s response was a lie. Biden has been an angry, arrogant liar his entire career. https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1678457190422552578 @SteveGuest: Joe Biden broadcasts to the world that the U.S. is low on 155mm shells. Does President Biden not care that our adversaries in communist China are listening? https://t.co/SxaI6jHo49 @charliekirk11: The DoJ has announced multiple indictments against Dr. Gal Luft, just days after the NY Post’s bombshell report featuring a 14 min video of Luft leveling explosive allegations of the Bidens selling out American interests to the Chinese. Dr. Luft alleges that the Bidens provided an FBI mole named “One Eye” who tipped off CEFC that the FBI had launched an investigation into the Chinese energy company. He also claims Hunter and James Bides were being paid $165,000/month, combined, to lobby for the CCP controlled firm. Before surfacing with the 14-min video obtained by the NY Post, Luft was described by House Oversight as a “missing” witness. GOP @RepAndyBiggsAZ: The Biden DOJ continues to retaliate against those who expose the Biden Family crime network. This is not what “justice” looks like. Defund and dismantle. FBI worked to censor Americans for Russian-infiltrated Ukrainian intelligence: report “Given that the SBU was compromised by a network of Russian collaborators, sympathizers, and double agents at the time of its interactions with the FBI, the FBI’s uncritical cooperation with the SBU’s requests is deeply concerning,” the lawmakers on the panel fumed. https://justthenews.com/world/europe/fbi-worked-censor-americans-russian-infiltrated-ukrainian-intelligence-report Lawmakers baffled on why White House cocaine probe is taking so long (Video) https://www.foxnews.com/video/6330930965112 @RNCResearch: Kamala Harris says she is “closely monitoring what must happen to ensure that the federal bench reflects the faces and the names and the numbers of all people” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1678558144169930753 Utah governor blasts ‘politicized’ American Medical Association for pushing gender transition for minors https://t.co/XLYLqYBpFP NYPD exodus continues as cops feel ‘squeezed from every direction’ Through June 30, 648 officers quit before retiring this year — a 22% spike from 2021, when 530 left, and an 87% rise from 2020, when 347 quit, NYPD pension data show… https://t.co/kBl4002Uha “Human beings are born with different capacities. If they are free, they are not equal. And if they are equal, they are not free.” — Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn | |
GREG HUNTER
I will see you on WEDNESDAY
harveyorganblog.com 
