JULY 19/GOLD CLOSED UP $.65 TO $1977.25//SILVER CLOSED UP 11 CENTS TO $25.16//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $11.05 TO $976.10//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $10.55// UPDATES ON THE IMPLODING CHINESE ECONOMY INCLUDING THE HUGE LOSSES FROM EVERGRANDE//PUTIN WILL ONLY ATTEND THE BRICS CONFERENCE AUGUST 22-24 BY VIDEO CONFERENCING//COVID UPDATES: HUGE UPDATE ON MYOCARDITIS CASES IN THE UK//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//VACCINE IMPACT//SLAY NEWS//EVOL NEWS//USA DATA: HOUSING PERMITS AND HOUSING STARTS PLUMMET//GOLDMAN SACHS EARNINGS PLUMMET//CRE DOMINOS START WITH STARWOOD DEFAULTING AND A HUGE PRIME BALTIMORE BUILDING SOLD FOR A DISCOUNT OF 63%//STRIKE AT FREIGHTCARRIER YELLOW TO BEGIN JULY 24//SWAMP STORIES INCLUDING THE VIDEO ON WHISTLEBLOWER TESTIMONEY ON HUNTER BIDEN TAX EVASION//
190 H BMO CAPITAL 77 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 3 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 12 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 61 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 2
JPMorgan stopped 0/78 contracts.
FOR JULY:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2023. CONTRACT: 78 NOTICES FOR 7800 OZ or 0.2426 TONNES
total notices so far: 2607 contracts for 260,700 oz (8.109 tonnes)
FOR JULY:
SILVER NOTICES: 770 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 3,850,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 4823 for 24,115,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $0.65
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.07 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.11 AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 455.875 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1673 CONTRACTS TO 146,863 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.25 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A SMALL SIZED 298 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH . CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 298 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.25). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2538CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1.25MILLION OZ.). WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG WITH MANIPULATION NOW MID MONTH AND BEYOND, DUE TO (TAS) MANIPULATION.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 865 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 16.110 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 3,210,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP+ 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING: 24.360 MILLION OZ + 1.25 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NEW TOTAL 25.61 MILLION OZ// // HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) SMALL NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (298CONTRACTS)/ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL – 244 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 days, total 13,104 contracts: OR 65.520 MILLION OZ (1191 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 65.520 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 65.520 MILLION OZ (LARGER THAN LAST MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1673 CONTRACTS WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.25 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 865 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF 16.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 3.21 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP + 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK (PRIOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK 1.25 MILLION OZ): TOTAL NOW STANDING 24.360 OZ NORMAL STANDING + 1.25 EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 25.61 MILLION OZ.///// .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF2538 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A SMALL 298//SOME FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION TO CONTAIN SILVER PRICE’S RISE. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TODAY (298) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE.
WE HAD 770 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 3,850,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY GOOD SIZED 4615 CONTRACTS TO 482,104 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: removed: 780 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 4615CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR HUGE $23.45 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY. AT 5.1975 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.2333 TONNE QUEUE JUMP: NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY: 8.2146 TONNES// + /A FAIR (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 2091 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $23.45 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A SMALL SIZED loss OF 218 OI CONTRACTS (0.6780 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4397CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 482,104
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 218 CONTRACTS WITH 4615 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG 4397 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI loss ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 218CONTRACTS OR 0.218 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 2091 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4397 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (4615) //TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 218 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 5.1975 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.2333TONNE QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL 8.2146 TONNES ///// /3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION BUT CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION//4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2091 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
JULY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 26,281 CONTRACTS OR 2,628,100 OZ OR 81.744 TONNES IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2389 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 81.744 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 84.771/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.31% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 84.771 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1673 CONTRACTS OI TO 146,863 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 865 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 865and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 865 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1673 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 865 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2538 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 12.690 MILLION OZ
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.02 PTS OR 0.03% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 63.41 PTS OR 0.33% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 402.14 PTS OR % //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.55 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.2191 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.2264 /Oil UP TO 75.97 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 79.94 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 4615CONTRACTS DOWN TO 482,863 DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $23.45 ON TUESDAY. I CAN ASSURE YOU THAT MANY T.A.S. CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED TO HELP THE CROOKS CONTAIN THE PRICE OF GOLD.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 4397 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 4397 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4397 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 218 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4397LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 4615 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $23.45//TUESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A GOOD 2091 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS INITIATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GOLD/SILVER MARKET AS RAIDS WILL SURELY BE UPON US TRYING TO CONTAIN OUR PRECIOUS METALS RISE IN PRICE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JULY (8.2146) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 8.2146 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $23.45) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 218 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN GOLD’S RISE. THE TAS ISSUED TUESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. THE MASSIVE T.A.S. ISSUED ON MONDAY WAS USED TUESDAY TO CONTAIN GOLD’S RISE.
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 0.6780PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY. (5.11974 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.2333 TONNES//TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY GOLD: 8.2146 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $25.45.
WE HAD + REMOVED 780 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 218 CONTRACTS OR 21800 OZ OR 0.6780 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2607 notices 260,700 OZ 8.109 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total customer deposits: 0 oz
we had 1 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of JPMorgan: 192.906 oz 6 kilobars
total withdrawals: 192.906 oz
Adjustments; 0//
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.
For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 112 contracts having GAINED 63 contracts. We had 12 contracts served on Tuesday. Thus we gained 75 contracts or an additional 7500 oz of gold will stand at the comex.
AUGUST LOST 12,100 contracts DOWN to 207,000 contracts
SEPT gained 19 contracts to stand at 501
We had 78 contracts filed for today representing 7800 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 78 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2607 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (112 CONTRACT) minus the number of notices served upon today 78 x 100 oz per contract equals 264,100 OZ OR 8.2146 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of July.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULYcontract month: No of notices filed so far (2607) x 100 oz + (112) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (78) x 100 oz) which equals 264.100oz standing OR 8.2146 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 8.2146 TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,274,962.021 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,832,906.869 (368.05 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,442,055.157 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,953,632 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 309.599 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
JULY 19
//2023// THE JULY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
34,264.381 oz Delaware JPMorgan
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
593,497.000 oz Asahi
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
597,368.791 oz JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)
778 CONTRACT(S) (3,850,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
177 contracts (885,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
4823 Contracts (24,115,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 1 dealer deposit
i) into Asahi 593,497.000 oz
total dealer deposit: 593,497.000 oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into JPMorgan 579,368.791 oz
total customer deposits: 579,368.791 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139.936 million oz/278.075 million =50.35% of comex .//
Comex withdrawals 2
i) Out of Delaware 29,226.081 oz
ii) Out of JPMorgan: 5038.300 oz
total: 34,264.381 oz
adjustments: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 35.374 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 278.075 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2023 OI: 819 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 630 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 12 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 642 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 3,210,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN JULY,
AUGUST GAINED 8 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 729
SEPT HAS A GAIN OF 520 CONTRACTS UP TO 124,883
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 12 for 60,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 42,464 poor /
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 62,791 good
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4823 x 5,000 oz = 24,115,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(819) and the number of notices served upon today 770 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY/2023 contract month: 4823 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (819) – number of notices served upon today (770 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 24.360 million oz + 1.25 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK /NEW TOTAL: 25.61 MILLION OZ..WE HAVE 34 MILLION OZ OF REGISTERED SILVER AT THE COMEX//
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JULY 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.07 TONNES
JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $23.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 14/WITH GOLD UP $0.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES
JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES
JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $24.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.95 TONNES
JULY 11/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.0 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.26 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.26 TONNES.
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES.
JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES
JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.90 TONNES
JULY 3/WITH GOLD UP $1.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES//
JUNE 30/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES
JUNE 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.81 TONNES
JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.10 TONNES
JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WITHDRAWALS OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $0.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44 TONNES
JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44
GLD INVENTORY: 912.07 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JULY 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.856 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 14/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.21 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.881 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .020 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.822 MILLION OZ/
JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.802 MILLION OZ
JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ
JULY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.667 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ//
JULY5/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JULY 3/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.377 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.763 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.764 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 27/WILVER SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 734,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ
JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 469.793 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A NET DEPOSIT OF 6.61 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OVER THESE PAST TWO DAYS//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.793 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.784 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 89 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ
JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.377 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.642 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 14/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 735,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.019 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.515 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.754 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ//
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
What possible reason could sovereign Switzerland conceal secrets of Credit Suisse collapse?
(Pam and Russ Martens)
Switzerland plans to conceal secrets of Credit Suisse collapse for 50 years
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-07-18 12:37Section: Daily Dispatches
By Pam and Russ Martens Wall Street on Parade Tuesday, July 18, 2023
The “Deep State” is increasingly feeling like the “Deep Banking State.”
Try to get any meaningful information to unravel the corrupt and dangerous interconnections between global banking behemoths today and some government or other entity has slapped a padlock on the information
The latest example is the Swiss Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry that is delving into the collapse in March of the second largest global bank in Switzerland — Credit Suisse. The Commission has announced that it plans to lock away the details of its findings for 50 years. (UBS, the largest global bank in Switzerland, bought the crumbling remains of Credit Suisse earlier this year.)
Reuters reported that the Swiss Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry is also requiring that “all persons participating in the meetings and the questioning are subject to the duty of secrecy, not only the members of the commission, but also the interviewees themselves.”
The news of the 50-year lockup of the reasons for a global bank’s rapid failure is making headlines, on the basis that it’s an affront to the public’s right to know — which, of course, it is. But for decades the public has been suffering equally egregious lockups of information concerning the global banks based here in the United States. …
Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: The great Keynesian experiment ends here
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-07-18 15:34Section: Daily Dispatches
By Craig Hemke Sprott Money, Toronto Tuesday, July 18, 2023
A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away, I came up with a tagline for my comments at ZeroHedge. It stated, “the end of the great Keynesian experiment is upon us, so prepare accordingly.”
Well, it has taken longer than I expected, but at last here we are.
Let’s start with John Maynard Keynes. Who was he and what is this “great experiment”?
In short, it was Keynes who popularized the idea of a debt-based monetary system where governments allow for unchecked growth of debt and the growth of the monetary base needed to support it.
This was all well and good, and it worked for a while. However, the end of the experiment was always scheduled for the moment when new fiat currency creation for debt monetization became an economic and monetary necessity. And now here we are.
Last week the U.S. government reported its fiscal deficit numbers for the first half of calendar year 2023. (The fiscal year actually began on October 1, 2022, and ends on September 30, 2023.) The numbers are astoundingly bad, with tax revenues sharply declining while expenditures are exploding higher. …
Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has promised to progressively back the United States dollar with Bitcoin if he is elected president.
Speaking at a July 19 Heal-the-Divide PAC event, Kennedy claimed that backing the U.S. dollar with what he called “hard currency,” including gold, silver, platinum or Bitcoin, could help to re-stabilize the American economy.
“Backing dollars and U.S. debt obligations with hard assets could help restore strength back to the dollar, rein in inflation and usher in a new era of American financial stability, peace and prosperity.”
Kennedy explained the process would be gradual and that, depending on the plan’s success, he’d adjust the amount of backing for the dollar.
“My plan would be to start very, very small; perhaps 1% of issued T-bills would be backed by hard currency, by gold, silver, platinum or Bitcoin,” he said.
Additionally, Kennedy declared he would make Bitcoin to U.S. dollar conversions exempt from capital gains taxes.
In his view, the proposed exemption would spur investment and incentivize ventures to grow their business in the U.S. instead of other crypto-friendly jurisdictions such as Singapore or Switzerland.
Kennedy’s latest round of pro-Bitcoin comments come in the wake of his appearance at Miami’s Bitcoin 2023 conference on May 19 where he announced that he would accept political campaign donations in Bitcoin.
On July 9, investment disclosures found that Kennedy owned up to $250,000 worth of Bitcoin, despite his previous statements where he denied having any exposure to the asset.
RFK Jr. is one of many presidential hopefuls to make sweeping crypto-based promises. On July 14, Republican presidential candidate and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis promised to ban central bank digital currencies if elected president.
“If I am the president, on day one, we will nix central bank digital currency. Done. Dead. Not happening in this country,” DeSantis said.
END
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: OLIVE OIL
Record Olive Oil Prices Keep Italian Pizza-Making Costs High
WEDNESDAY, JUL 19, 2023 – 05:45 AM
After extreme heat in southern Europe caused significant crop damage, olive oil prices are soaring further into record-breaking territory. This has led the cost of cooking a classic Pizza Margherita to remain well above the current Italian inflation rate.
Bloomberg calculations based on Istat and Economy Ministry data showed the cost of ingredients plus energy to cook a Pizza Margherita increased 14% in June compared to a year earlier. The good news is costs associated with pizza-making have subsided since late 2022 but remain twice that of overall Italian inflation.
“The cost of buying prepared pizza rose only 7% from a year earlier, making it more worth while to buy a ready-made version of the delicacy at the store,” Bloomberg noted.
The five components of the pizza basket include flour, mozzarella, tomato, olive oil, and electricity.
Here’s the cost breakdown:
Flour consumer prices rose 6.8% Y/y but fell 0.6% M/m
Mozzarella consumer prices rose 17.7% Y/y but fell 0.4% M/m
Tomato consumer prices rose 12.8% Y/y but fell 10.0% M/m
Olive oil consumer prices rose 26.7% Y/y and 2.4% M/m
Electricity consumer prices rose 1.4% Y/y but fell 6.6% M/m
And a visual of the roller coaster in the price of the pizza basket cost index.
The good news is pizza making costs are coming back down to Earth. But one of the basket’s components, olive oil, continues to soar to new record heights.
Data from Bloomberg shows that Spanish extra-virgin olive oil prices have risen 282% since the August 2020 lows. Prices command 7,519 euros per metric ton — the highest level on record with data going back to 2010.
“Output in Spain could more than halve this season due to the arid conditions, according to a Spanish farming industry group,” Bloomberg wrote in May. Spain accounts for 40% of the world’s supply, indicating that prices across Europe and other regions are set to increase further.
Declining olive oil production due to the devastating effects of heat waves in Europe offers a grim outlook for pizza lovers battered by high costs.
end
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//COCOA
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2191
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2264
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.02 PTS OR 0.03%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 63.41 PTS OR 0.33%
2. Nikkei closed UP 402.14 PTS OR 1.24%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 99.95 EURO FALLS TO 1.1218 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.456 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 139.91/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.3470***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.013*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.377…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.726
3j Gold at $1975.50 silver at: 25.07 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 21 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 91.11//
3m oil into the 75 dollar handle for WTI and 79 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 139.91// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, FALLS TO 0.456% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8582 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9628 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.759 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.875 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.752 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.93…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 15 BASIS PTS AT 4.2135
end
2. Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures Grind Higher As Global Yields Slump After Major UK Inflation Miss
WEDNESDAY, JUL 19, 2023 – 08:08 AM
Futures were just barely higher, having erased earlier small gains following yesterday’s frenzied meltup that sent spoos just shy of 4600 to a fresh 52-week high. Sentiment was boosted by sliding Treasury yields after UK inflation came in weaker than expected, sending the pound sharply lower and UK bonds led a global fixed income rally, while the USD rose as the Japanese yen resumed its slide as markets reassessed the likelihood of BOJ YCC intervention. At 7:30am ET, S&P futures were up 0.01% at 4588, following mixed results from Goldman Sachs (more details in a follow up post). Bond yields are lower and the USD is higher as pound and yen slide. Commodities are bid in both Energy and Ags; corn and wheat are up more than 3%; oil is also higher while Bitcoin trades just above $30K, erasing much of yesterday’s loss.
Today’s macro data focus is on the housing sector, where thanks to the latest Housing Starts and Permits data we may see continued recovery amid a supply shortage and historically low affordability. The XHB has outperformed the SPX by 21% YTD, including by 7% over the last month. Thinking about this Goldilocks market and how far it can go, JPM writes that its Equity Derivatives Trading team tells me that vol markets are pricing in about a 35% – 40% chance of the SPX hitting 5,000 by year-end (via one-touch options).
In premarket trading, AT&T rose after the telecom company reassured investors by saying less than 10% of its nationwide copper-wire telecom network had lead-clad cables. Carvana soared after the used-car retailer reached an agreement to restructure debt and reported second-quarter revenue that beat estimates. Microsoft shares gained as much as 0.9% in US premarket trading, set for their seventh straight day of gains, as Cowen raised its price target on the stock, citing high investor demand for shares. Omnicom Group falls 6.9% in premarket trading after the advertising firm reported second-quarter revenue and organic revenue growth that missed expectations. Citi said the modest organic revenue growth miss could put downward pressure on shares. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Western Alliance falls 2.2% after the bank’s second-quarter net interest income and net interest margin missed consensus estimates. Truist Securities note a deterioration in credit quality, with an increase in nonperforming, classified and special-mention loans.
Joby Aviation drops as much as 5.7% after the maker of electric vertical take-off aircraft is downgraded to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan. The broker says a surge in its shares, as well as in peer Archer Aviation, has decoupled from fundamentals.
Lilium jumps 13% after the electric commuter aircraft manufacturer announced it had successfully arranged a capital raise of $192 million, which it said would enable it to continue the development of the Lilium Jet at full pace.
The big surprise overnight was news that Britain’s inflation rate cooled more than expected to the lowest level in more than a year, a sign that soaring interest rates may be starting to curtail the worst wage-price spiral in the Group of Seven nations. The Consumer Prices Index was 7.9% higher than a year ago in June, a sharp drop from the 8.7% reading in May, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. It was the first downward surprise in five months and the biggest since July 2021, below the 8.2% expected by economists.
The pound slid as much as 0.9% against the dollar, accounting for much of the gain in a gauge of greenback strength, as investors pared back bets on a further sharp surge in interest rates while yields on two-year UK government bonds plunged as traders pared bets on where BOE rates will peak. The yield is down around 50 basis points since last week’s softer-than-expected US inflation reading, the biggest drop among developed-nation bonds. Treasury yields retreated across the curve Wednesday.
“Today’s weaker-than-expected inflation print is arguably a relief, which should lift sentiment on the depressed domestic plays and rates plays. Investors are very bearish on the UK and under-exposed, so short covering may be powerful,” said Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau.
“It’s clear that the latest inflation data across the globe, like this morning in England or earlier in the US or in Europe show an easing trend and that’s taking pressure off rates,” Bruno Vacossin, a Paris-based senior portfolio manager at Palatine Asset Management, said by phone. “This is providing oxygen to financial markets. So far the earnings season has provided pretty good results. All of this should help maintain markets at decent levels.”
Rate-sensitive real estate stocks led gains in Europe’s Stoxx 600 index; European real estate stocks also jump on the UK inflation figures, triggering a rally in the rate-sensitive sector as the news spurred hopes the rate-hike cycle is reaching an end. UK stocks also benefited, with the FTSE 100 rising 1.6% and outperforming regional peers. UK homebuilders surging the most since 2008 on optimism about less-aggressive hikes and as traders pared bets on further BOE rate hikes following cooler-than-expected UK inflation data. Here are the most notable European movers:
Kering rises as much as 6.8% after the luxury group announced the departure of Gucci CEO Marco Bizzarri, a move that analysts said constitutes an opportunity to prop up the appeal of the brand
Severn Trent shares rise as much as 3.8% after it reported an in-line financial performance, which analysts said was a good start to the year, with RBC seeing capital expenditure at guided levels
Aston Martin Lagonda rises as much as 6.9% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the UK carmaker to buy, noting that the recent strong run in the shares is “clearly factoring in” an upcoming recovery
Argenx rises as much as 7.4% after raising $1.1 billion in a global share offering, higher than its initially targeted $750 million. The proceeds indicate a high interest in the company, KBC says
National Grid shares rise as much as 2.5% after the UK utility agreed to sell a further 20% interest in its UK gas transmission business to existing majority owners
Volvo AB shares fall as much as 3.8% as consensus-beating second-quarter results at the Swedish truck and bus maker were offset by comments on demand environment
Handelsbanken drops as much as 3.8%, among the worst performers on the Stoxx 600 Banks Index, after reporting results that Citi calls “unimpressive” versus peers as lending arrived revenue in-line
Antofagasta falls as much as 3.4%, missing out on a broader market rally as the London-listed miner cuts its copper production guidance for the full year
Wacker Chemie shares drop as much as 4.1%, before paring decline to 0.1%, after the German chemicals company becomes the latest company in the sector to cut its guidance
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined again, headed for their third-straight day of losses, amid continued worries over Chinese economic growth. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.4%, with Tencent and Alibaba the biggest drags. Key gauges in Hong Kong led declines around the region, with benchmarks in mainland China posting modest losses. A gauge of tech stocks fell as much as 2.6% in Hong Kong as China’s latest measures to boost household spending disappointed the market. Investors still expect further stimulus from Beijing to support growth, including efforts to boost the flagging real estate sector. “Until China’s property industry sees an inflection point, Chinese stock markets are expected tosee sluggish performance and rangebound trading,” said Xuehua Cui, a China equity analyst at Meritz Securities in Seoul. Markets in Malaysia and Indonesia were shut for holidays.
Stocks rose elsewhere in Southeast Asia, while South Korea’s benchmark slipped. Equities in Japan advanced after the nation’s central bank governor indicated a continuation of easy monetary policy. Australia’s ASX 200 was positive with gains led by the energy sector after the recent upside in oil prices which facilitated the resilience of Woodside Energy despite its quarterly decline in output and revenue, while the mining sector was choppy amid indecision in Rio Tinto due to a mixed quarterly update.
The daily record juggernaut in India continued as key stock gauges in India closed at another record high Wednesday, boosted by gains in index major Reliance Industries and shares of lenders. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.5% to 67,097.44 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.4% to 19,833.15. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed for the day. Reliance Industries contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain, increasing 0.6%, ahead of the demerger of its financial services unit on Thursday. Meanwhile, BSE Bankex closed 0.6% higher. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 20 rose and 9 fell, while 1 was unchanged
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.2% extending gains into a second day versus all its G-10 rivals except the euro and Canadian dollar. USD/JPY jumped as much as 0.8% to 139.99, extending Tuesday’s 0.1% gain, after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated it would take a shift in the bank’s assessment for stably achieving its inflation target to change its stance for persistent monetary easing. The pound fell as much as 0.9% after data showed that inflation in the UK fell more than expected to its lowest level in more than a year. A 25bps hike by the Federal Reserve next week is fully priced in, and traders are betting on roughly a one-in-three possibility of further tightening later in the year; easing US CPI data earlier this month has fueled expectations that the Fed may stop raising rates after its next meeting
In rates, treasuries were off session highs reached amid steep gains for UK government bonds sparked by bigger-than-forecast slowdown in UK inflation. Focal points of US trading day include June housing starts and 20-year bond reopening. Yields are lower by as much as 4bp-5bp at short end vs declines of more than 20bp at UK short end as traders pared bets on how much further BOE will raise rates. In the US, 10Y yields were down 2.5bp at 3.76%, and testing the 50-day moving average which they last closed below in mid-May; 30Y yield at 3.87% is through its 50-DMA, last close below was June 28. Fed swaps continue to fully price in a 25bp rate hike on July 26 and about a third of an additional quarter-point hike this year. Ahead of a $12BN 20Y bond auction (second and final reopening of issue that debuted in May), WI yield is around 4.045%, exceeding 20Y auction results since November.
In commodities, crude futures advanced with WTI rising 0.5% to trade near $76.10. Spot gold is little changed around $1,978. Bitcoin rises 0.7%.
Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include the aforementioned UK CPI reading for June, along with US housing starts and building permits for June. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Vujcic and BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden. Lastly, today’s earnings include Tesla, Netflix, Goldman Sachs and IBM.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,589.25
MXAP little changed at 167.90
MXAPJ down 0.3% to 528.26
Nikkei up 1.2% to 32,896.03
Topix up 1.2% to 2,278.97
Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 18,952.31
Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,198.84
Sensex up 0.2% to 66,919.59
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,323.72
Kospi little changed at 2,608.24
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 462.35
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.34%
Euro little changed at $1.1221
Brent Futures up 0.3% to $79.86/bbl
Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,977.71
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.24% to 100.18
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
The pound weakened and bonds rallied after inflation in Britain slowed more than expected, reviving speculation about how many more times the Bank of England will increase interest rates. Stocks in the UK and Europe advanced
Big corporate bankruptcies are piling up at the second-fastest pace since 2008, eclipsed only by the early days of the pandemic
Deep-pocketed sovereign funds are deploying billions of dollars to get private equity takeovers across the line, helping grease the wheels of dealmaking in a year when other funding sources are drying up
Chinese stocks declined, a sign that traders are increasingly pricing in the lack of major stimulus from the government. Equity markets in the rest of Asia climbed, pacing US gains
Deutsche Bank AG has drawn fresh criticism from the European Central Bank over foreign-exchange sales even after the lender completed an internal probe into past practices that led to initial changes
The European Central Bank plans to substantially tighten how it monitors liquidity after several bank runs in the US and Switzerland heightened concerns about a risk that several regulators say hasn’t received sufficient attention
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mixed as the ongoing China economic woes partially offset the constructive lead from Wall St where risk sentiment was underpinned after strong bank earnings results and recent dovish ECB commentary. ASX 200 was positive with gains led by the energy sector after the recent upside in oil prices which facilitated the resilience of Woodside Energy despite its quarterly decline in output and revenue, while the mining sector was choppy amid indecision in Rio Tinto due to a mixed quarterly update. Nikkei 225 outperformed after recent comments by BoJ Governor Ueda provided the latest hints regarding the unlikelihood of a policy tweak at next week’s monetary policy meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lower as Hong Kong suffered from tech losses and with a non-committal tone in the mainland amid ongoing economic woes and recent support efforts.
Top Asian News
China’s Industry Ministry said China’s industrial sector faces difficulties and challenges such as insufficient demand and declining revenues, while it will formulate plans to stabilise the growth of 10 sectors including auto and steel, according to Reuters.
US Climate Envoy Kerry said his talks with Chinese officials this week were constructive but complicated with the two sides still dealing with political externalities including Taiwan. Kerry added that they are just reconnecting and trying to re-establish the process they have worked on for years, according to Reuters.
US Climate Envoy Kerry meets with China’s Vice President Han Zheng in Beijing and told him that if they can come together over the next months heading into COP28, they will have an opportunity to make a profound difference on climate change, while he added that the US side pledges to work closely with China in order to help their presidents to be able to produce real results. Furthermore, Han told Kerry that both countries have had close communication and dialogue after Kerry became the special envoy for climate and said China and the US have maintained long-term good communication and exchanges on climate, as well as reached some important consensus’.
US President Biden’s administration formally halted the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s access to US funding due to COVID probe failures, according to Bloomberg.
China’s Commerce Ministry says China’s foreign trade faces an extremely severe situation in H2.
European bourses are in proximity to the unchanged mark as opening gains have pared in a relatively quiet second half of the session; Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%. With the exception of the FTSE 100 +1.4% following cooler-than-expected UK CPI and substantial gains in UK equities as a result, particularly housebuilders. As such, Real Estate is the outperforming sector while Basic Resources lag given base metals action and after Rio Tinto cut its FY refined copper/alumina guidance. Stateside, futures are a touch firmer and hanging onto the majority of Tuesday’s RTY & MSFT/Tech driven upside ahead of key earnings incl. Netflix, Tesla & GS. ASML (ASML NA) Q2 (EUR): Revenue 6.9bln (exp. 6.73bln), Net Income 1.9bln (exp. 1.82bln), Interim Dividend 1.45/shr, Gross Margin 51.3%. Q3 Outlook: Revenue 6.5-7.0bln (exp. 6.42bln), Gross Margin 50%. US DoJ and FTC have proposed merger guidelines which signal a tougher stance against private equity and Tech, via FT. Reminder, the DoJ and FTC heads are both appearing on CNBC 13:30BST/08:30ET. UK CMA has provisionally cleared the Broadcom (AVGO) and VMware (VMW) deal; deal unlikely to harm innovation, would not weaken competition.
Top European News
UK PM Sunak is set to delay a decision on whether Britain should rejoin the EU’s Horizon science program until after the summer holidays, according to FT.
ECB is to push banks for weekly liquidity data, according to Bloomberg sources; reflects need for information rather than acute concerns.
ECB’s Nagel says “‘Inflation is a greedy beast. That’s why it would be a mistake to ease up on the fight too soon and cut interest rates again prematurely.” adding that “practically everyone expects an increase of 25bp” re. July.
ECB’s Simkus says there is a clear need to hike in July, option for a hike should be discussed in September, via Econostream. Would not be surprised if ECB continues to hike in September. The risk of doing too little is still higher than the risk of doing too much.
FX
Pound plunges post-UK inflation data as headline and core CPI slow more than expected, Cable probes Fib at 1.2933 after pulling up shy of 1.3050 and EUR/GBP eyes Fibs just under 0.8700 vs low close to round number below.
Dollar gathers momentum at the expense of Sterling and other rivals as DXY rebounds further from recent lows to 100.300, Yen extends reversal vs Greenback from 138.77 to 139.79 after BoJ Governor Ueda underscored dovish guidance.
Aussie labours ahead of employment report and amidst renewed Yuan weakness on Chinese economic jitters, AUD/USD towards base of 0.6820-0.6764 range.
Euro underpinned by EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY tailwinds, but EUR/USD capped by decent option expiry interest at 1.1250.
Kiwi loses momentum following brief pop on the back of firmer than forecast NZ Q2 CPI, NZD/USD at lower end of 0.6315-0.6226 bounds.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1486 vs exp. 7.1798 (prev. 7.1453)
Fixed Income
Gilts gains slowing, but still growing in wake of softer than forecast UK inflation data.
10 year bond extends to 97.84 from a 96.64 Liffe low and 95.85 close.
Bunds fade after less well covered long-dated German supply within a 134.88-01 range and T-note midway between 113-06+/112-22 bounds before US housing metrics and USD 12bln 20 year issuance.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks are firmer this morning, detaching themselves somewhat from the tepid equity tone (ex-UK) as market focus continues to centre around upcoming US earnings, with a particularly key after-market docket.
Elsewhere, nat gas continues to pullback following the resumption of the Nyhamma plant.
Finally, metals are contained and caught between the tentative tone and the USD’s Sterling-driven resurgence.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -0.8mln (exp. -2.3mln), Gasoline -2.8mln (exp. -2.1mln), Distillate -0.1mln (exp. -0.1mln), Cushing -3.0mln.
Geopolitics
US assessed that North Korea’s launches do not pose an immediate threat but show the destabilising impact of North Korea’s illicit weapons program, according to the US military.
South Africa claimed it cannot arrest Russian President Putin at a planned BRICS summit in Johannesburg next month as Russia has threatened to “declare war” if the International Criminal Court warrant against its leader is enforced, according to FT.
US official said Secretary of State Blinken signed a new 120-day waiver to allow Iraq to pay Iran for electricity and that the waiver was expanded to allow Iraq to deposit payments for Iranian electricity into non-Iraqi banks, while it is hoped that the waiver will ease Iran’s pressure on Iraq for access to funds which previously only went to restricted accounts in Iraq.
US Event Calendar
07:00: July MBA Mortgage Applications 1.1%, prior 0.9%
08:30: June Building Permits, est. 1.5m, prior 1.49m, revised 1.5m
08:30: June Building Permits MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 5.2%, revised 5.6%
08:30: June Housing Starts, est. 1.48m, prior 1.63m
08:30: June Housing Starts MoM, est. -9.3%, prior 21.7%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
There are two quite important prints today that might give markets some direction one way or another. The first is UK CPI just after we go to print with the second US housing starts which after a surprise spike up last month is expected to normalise back to low levels. But there will be fun and games if it doesn’t. In terms of earnings, stand by for Tesla, Netflix and IBM after the bell and Goldman Sachs before.
With regards to the UK, it has the highest inflation rate in the G7 at 8.7%, and we’ve had upside surprises in all of the last 4 CPI prints, so it’s generated more and more focus. In turn, that’s driven a big reappraisal as to how far the Bank of England will need to hike rates, whilst gilts have significantly underperformed their counterparts elsewhere this year. In terms of what to expect today, our UK economist sees the year-on-year measure coming down half a point to 8.2%. However, he thinks that core CPI will inch up to 7.2%, which would be the highest in 31 years. Last month saw the BoE surprise with a 50bp hike, and today’s reading will be an important factor in whether they go for 50bps in August again or dial back to a 25bps pace. As it stands, markets are pricing in a decent 75% chance of a 50bps move.
In terms of US housing starts. The May reading saw a massive surge in the measure to a 13-month high, whilst it marked the biggest monthly jump in percentage terms since October 2016. So the big question is whether that can be sustained. Our US economists expect that to fall back in June, coming in at 1.425m, down from 1.631m in May. So back to relatively subdued levels. However, there is other evidence that US housing is continuing to rebound, with yesterday’s NAHB housing market index rising to 56 as expected, which marks its 7th consecutive monthly gain.
The biggest moves over the last 24 hours have been in European rates after Dutch central bank governor Knot, one of the biggest hawks on the Governing Council, partially pushed back on the idea of a second ECB hike in September. He said that “beyond July it would at most be a possibility but by no means a certainty”. The fact that was coming from a more hawkish voice added to the sense that the ECB’s widely-expected hike next week might be their last of this cycle. 10yr bunds (-9.7bps), OATs (-10.1bps) and BTPs (-14.1bps) saw significant declines. The terminal ECB rate priced in for December 2023 fell by -3.3bps, though this is still pricing in 47bp of further hikes, while June 2024 pricing saw a more pronounced -10.2bp decline.
The data was a bit mixed yesterday with US industrial production contracting for a second consecutive month in June. In fact, it’s now in negative territory on a year-on-year basis for the first time since the pandemic, so that’s another indicator pointing towards stagnating growth in a week where the more optimistic soft-landing narrative rules the waves.
In terms of the details of that release, the main headline was a -0.5% contraction in June (vs. unch expected), as well as a downward revision to May. On top of that, the capacity utilisation number came in at a 20-month low of 78.9% (vs. 79.5% expected). And if that wasn’t enough, US retail sales were also fairly mixed, with the headline measure up just +0.2% in June (vs. +0.5% expected), albeit with modest upward revisions to May. However, retail control (which feeds directly into GDP) was strong at +0.6% versus +0.2% expected.
Nonetheless, market optimism dominated during the US session. Confidence in the view that the Fed will hike next week inched up a fraction, with a 96% chance of a move priced in, while June 2024 Fed pricing rose +3.6bps yesterday to 4.68%. This front-end move saw the 2yr Treasury yield rise slightly (+2.4bps), closing +11bps above its intra-day lows. The 10yr yield partially reversed its earlier rally during European hours to finish -1.9bp on the day but has dipped back another -1.7bps this morning.
US equities put in another strong performance, with the S&P 500 (+0.71%) advancing to a fresh 15-month high. Energy stocks outperformed as oil and gas prices saw a decent rebound, with Brent Crude up +1.44% to $79.63/bbl. Bank stocks also outperformed (+1.90%) as results from Bank of America (+4.42%) and Morgan Stanley (+6.45%) beat expectations with investors seeing optimism in the outlooks. Tech stocks performed strongly as well, with the NASDAQ (+0.76%) and the FANG+ (+1.36%) gaining ahead of earnings from Tesla and Netflix after the close today. Back in Europe equities saw a solid rise after Monday’s declines, with the STOXX 600 recovering by +0.62%.
Asian equity markets are mostly lower this morning erasing their earlier gains as China’s growth concerns continue to weigh on risk sentiment. As I type, the Hang Seng (-1.43%) is extending its losses and is the worst performer across the region with the CSI (-0.32%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.25%) and the KOSPI (-0.15%) also trading in negative territory. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.97%) is bucking the trend. S&P 500 (-0.05%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.09%) futures are marginally lower ahead of a busy earnings day.
In FX, the Japanese yen (-0.28%) has weakened for a second consecutive day against the dollar, trading at 139.22, after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the central bank would maintain its ultra-easy monetary policy as there is still some distance to sustainably achieve its inflation target.
There wasn’t much other data to speak of yesterday, but we got a mixed picture from the latest Canadian inflation release. That showed headline CPI was down to 2.8% in June (vs. 3.0% expected), but the core measures were more resilient than expected. For instance, the core CPI median measure remained at 3.9% (vs. 3.7% expected), and the core CPI trim measure only fell to 3.7% (vs. 3.6% expected).
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the UK CPI reading for June, along with US housing starts and building permits for June. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Vujcic and BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden. Lastly, today’s earnings include Tesla, Netflix, Goldman Sachs and IBM.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
EUROPE
FTSE 100 & Gilts lead after UK CPI, supporting the USD; key US Q2 updates due – Newsquawk US Market Open
WEDNESDAY, JUL 19, 2023 – 06:22 AM
European bourses & US futures are contained, with Real Estate leading while Base Resource names lag
FTSE 100 outperforms after cooler-than-expected UK CPI, with Gilts bid, GBP dented and BoE pricing moving in favour of 25bp
As such, GBP lags to the USD’s benefit while JPY approaches 140.0 and antipodeans lag
Gilts outperform with an initial sympathy move for USTs and EGBs fading, the latter further after tepid supply
Crude benefits from refinery action while nat gas continues to slip; spot gold unchanged, base metals dented
Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Speech from BoE’s Ramsden, Supply from the US, Earnings from Netflix, Tesla, Goldman Sachs & IBM.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are in proximity to the unchanged mark as opening gains have pared in a relatively quiet second half of the session; Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%.
With the exception of the FTSE 100 +1.4% following cooler-than-expected UK CPI and substantial gains in UK equities as a result, particularly housebuilders.
As such, Real Estate is the outperforming sector while Basic Resources lag given base metals action and after Rio Tinto cut its FY refined copper/alumina guidance.
Stateside, futures are a touch firmer and hanging onto the majority of Tuesday’s RTY & MSFT/Tech driven upside ahead of key earnings incl. Netflix, Tesla & GS.
US DoJ and FTC have proposed merger guidelines which signal a tougher stance against private equity and Tech, via FT. Reminder, the DoJ and FTC heads are both appearing on CNBC 13:30BST/08:30ET.
UK CMA has provisionally cleared the Broadcom (AVGO) and VMware (VMW) deal; deal unlikely to harm innovation, would not weaken competition.
Click here and here for a recap of the main European equity updates.
FX
Pound plunges post-UK inflation data as headline and core CPI slow more than expected, Cable probes Fib at 1.2933 after pulling up shy of 1.3050 and EUR/GBP eyes Fibs just under 0.8700 vs low close to round number below.
Dollar gathers momentum at the expense of Sterling and other rivals as DXY rebounds further from recent lows to 100.300, Yen extends reversal vs Greenback from 138.77 to 139.79 after BoJ Governor Ueda underscored dovish guidance.
Aussie labours ahead of employment report and amidst renewed Yuan weakness on Chinese economic jitters, AUD/USD towards base of 0.6820-0.6764 range.
Euro underpinned by EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY tailwinds, but EUR/USD capped by decent option expiry interest at 1.1250.
Kiwi loses momentum following brief pop on the back of firmer than forecast NZ Q2 CPI, NZD/USD at lower end of 0.6315-0.6226 bounds.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1486 vs exp. 7.1798 (prev. 7.1453)
Click here for the notable option expiries, NY cut.
FIXED INCOME
Gilts gains slowing, but still growing in wake of softer than forecast UK inflation data.
10 year bond extends to 97.84 from a 96.64 Liffe low and 95.85 close.
Bunds fade after less well covered long-dated German supply within a 134.88-01 range and T-note midway between 113-06+/112-22 bounds before US housing metrics and USD 12bln 20 year issuance.
Crude benchmarks are firmer this morning, detaching themselves somewhat from the tepid equity tone (ex-UK) as market focus continues to centre around upcoming US earnings, with a particularly key after-market docket.
Elsewhere, nat gas continues to pullback following the resumption of the Nyhamma plant.
Finally, metals are contained and caught between the tentative tone and the USD’s Sterling-driven resurgence.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -0.8mln (exp. -2.3mln), Gasoline -2.8mln (exp. -2.1mln), Distillate -0.1mln (exp. -0.1mln), Cushing -3.0mln.
White House asks pharmacy chains for help pushing drug-cost law with the administration seeking help promoting the Inflation Reduction Act, according to Bloomberg.
UK PM Sunak is set to delay a decision on whether Britain should rejoin the EU’s Horizon science program until after the summer holidays, according to FT.
ECB is to push banks for weekly liquidity data, according to Bloomberg sources; reflects need for information rather than acute concerns.
ECB’s Nagel says “‘Inflation is a greedy beast. That’s why it would be a mistake to ease up on the fight too soon and cut interest rates again prematurely.” adding that “practically everyone expects an increase of 25bp” re. July.
ECB’s Simkus says there is a clear need to hike in July, option for a hike should be discussed in September, via Econostream. Would not be surprised if ECB continues to hike in September. The risk of doing too little is still higher than the risk of doing too much.
DATA RECAP
UK CPI YY (Jun) 7.9% vs. Exp. 8.2% (Prev. 8.7%); All Services CPI: 7.2% (prev. 7.4%); MM (Jun) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.7%)
UK Core CPI YY (Jun) 6.9% vs. Exp. 7.1% (Prev. 7.1%); MM (Jun) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.8%)
UK ONS House Price Index (May) Y/Y 1.9% vs. prev. 3.5% (rev. 3.2%)
EU HICP Final YY (Jun) 5.5% vs. Exp. 5.5% (Prev. 5.5%); X F&E Final YY (Jun) 6.8% vs. Exp. 6.8% (Prev. 6.8%); X F,E,A&T Final YY (Jun) 5.5% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 5.4%)
GEOPOLITICS
US assessed that North Korea’s launches do not pose an immediate threat but show the destabilising impact of North Korea’s illicit weapons program, according to the US military.
South Africa claimed it cannot arrest Russian President Putin at a planned BRICS summit in Johannesburg next month as Russia has threatened to “declare war” if the International Criminal Court warrant against its leader is enforced, according to FT.
US official said Secretary of State Blinken signed a new 120-day waiver to allow Iraq to pay Iran for electricity and that the waiver was expanded to allow Iraq to deposit payments for Iranian electricity into non-Iraqi banks, while it is hoped that the waiver will ease Iran’s pressure on Iraq for access to funds which previously only went to restricted accounts in Iraq.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mixed as the ongoing China economic woes partially offset the constructive lead from Wall St where risk sentiment was underpinned after strong bank earnings results and recent dovish ECB commentary.
ASX 200 was positive with gains led by the energy sector after the recent upside in oil prices which facilitated the resilience of Woodside Energy despite its quarterly decline in output and revenue, while the mining sector was choppy amid indecision in Rio Tinto due to a mixed quarterly update.
Nikkei 225 outperformed after recent comments by BoJ Governor Ueda provided the latest hints regarding the unlikelihood of a policy tweak at next week’s monetary policy meeting.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lower as Hong Kong suffered from tech losses and with a non-committal tone in the mainland amid ongoing economic woes and recent support efforts.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s Industry Ministry said China’s industrial sector faces difficulties and challenges such as insufficient demand and declining revenues, while it will formulate plans to stabilise the growth of 10 sectors including auto and steel, according to Reuters.
US Climate Envoy Kerry said his talks with Chinese officials this week were constructive but complicated with the two sides still dealing with political externalities including Taiwan. Kerry added that they are just reconnecting and trying to re-establish the process they have worked on for years, according to Reuters.
US Climate Envoy Kerry meets with China’s Vice President Han Zheng in Beijing and told him that if they can come together over the next months heading into COP28, they will have an opportunity to make a profound difference on climate change, while he added that the US side pledges to work closely with China in order to help their presidents to be able to produce real results. Furthermore, Han told Kerry that both countries have had close communication and dialogue after Kerry became the special envoy for climate and said China and the US have maintained long-term good communication and exchanges on climate, as well as reached some important consensus’.
US President Biden’s administration formally halted the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s access to US funding due to COVID probe failures, according to Bloomberg.
China’s Commerce Ministry says China’s foreign trade faces an extremely severe situation in H2.
DATA RECAP
New Zealand CPI QQ (Q2) 1.1% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.2%); YY (Q2) 6.0% vs. Exp. 5.9% (Prev. 6.7%)
RBNZ Sectoral Factor Model Inflation Index (Q2) 5.8% (Prev. 5.7%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.02 PTS OR 0.03% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 63.41 PTS OR 0.33% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 402.14 PTS OR % //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.55 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.2191 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.2264 /Oil UP TO 75.97 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 79.94 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
////SOUTH KOREA/CHINA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA/ECONOMY
this is what is going on in China right now and why they are facing deflaton
(Epoch Times)
China’s Economy Is Facing Its Biggest Challenge In Decades
China’s economy is facing its biggest challenge in decades, and the authorities are running out of tools in their toolbox to address the issues, according to experts.
The country’s latest macroeconomic data point to an economy on the verge of deflation.
The June consumer price index was flat year on year and down by 0.2 percent compared with May. The producer price index, which reflects wholesale costs, declined by 5.4 percent compared to June 2022, showing a bigger drop than May’s 4.6 percent.
June’s trade data continued to show a downward trend. The dollar value of China’s exports decreased by over 12 percent year on year, a bigger drop than May’s 7.5 percent. Its imports also declined by nearly 7 percent from June 2022, compared to 4.5 percent in May.
Gary Jefferson, an economics professor at Brandeis University and a specialist in the Chinese economy, said the troubles facing the world’s second-largest economy are multifaceted, including heavy debts in the property sector and local governments, the weakening of return to investments, low household confidence, and geopolitical tensions with the United States and the European Union.
And it’s the result of the regime’s policies over the past 30 to 40 years, he said.
While many have pointed to the massive disruptions brought about by the pandemic and the regime’s zero-COVID policies as the source of China’s current woes, Mr. Jefferson believes that structural issues are likely to blame.
“As evidence of the systematic nature of the problem, it appears that the decline in economic confidence and social confidence are mutually reinforcing,” Mr. Jefferson told The Epoch Times.
“The reluctance to partner and marry and have children likely results in part from and feeds into the economic downturn. Fewer families augur a decline in the demand for larger or upscaled housing units, further contributing to weakness in the property sector, leading to less demand for land leases and local government revenue.”
China is grappling with a declining birth rate despite the regime’s dropping its one-child policy in 2016, and allowing families to have up to three children in recent years. Many couples have refused to have more kids citing the high costs involved.
‘Deepest Difficulty’ Since 1989
“The government is really in sort of the deepest difficulty it’s been in, at least since 1989, June 4th,” he added, referring to the Tiananmen Square massacre of Chinese students seeking democratic reforms and the resulting international isolation. After that, China’s economic growth took three years to get back on track.
While a southern tour by then-Chinese communist leader Deng Xiaoping in 1992 helped reignite economic growth, China is now not in the same situation having significantly developed since then, Mr. Jefferson pointed out.
With decades of savings by Chinese families and enterprises and abundant investment opportunities, economic recovery is not likely to readily happen, he said, adding that authorities are running out of tools in their toolbox to fix the economy.
In response to the 2008 global financial crisis, Chinese authorities released an enormous stimulus package— 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion at the time)—that significantly increased government spending on infrastructure, and debt in the property sector and local government.
Today, the return on physical and human capital investment is low compared to 10 years ago due to the enormous volume of infrastructure investment already undertaken, and the increase in higher education enrollment the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) initiated in 1999, said Mr. Jefferson. China’s youth unemployment rate was over 20 percent in May and June, partly due to the oversupply of college graduates that grew from 1 million to 10 million in two decades.
In his view, a stimulus would require enormous funding from the central and local governments, which would mean even more debt accumulation—and that’s very problematic. And when people have more money, they may choose to bank it or use it to pay off their debts. Therefore, getting more money into people’s hands may not stimulate spending, he added.
The professor gave an analogy of a car speeding along a hill and suddenly facing a cliff. “Often when this happened, there’s been a cliff maybe 50 or 100 feet away that the car could land upon and then resume its journey,” he said.
But in the current circumstances, “more than any other situation in the last 40 years, the distance to the other side of the cliff is substantially greater than that has been, making a safe landing more problematic.”
A key distinction between China and Western economies, according to Mr. Jefferson, is that Western governments have procedural legitimacy from elections and legislative processes, but the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) legitimacy depends entirely on its economic performance. Because of this, “it makes it very, very difficult for the Party to be able to manage a recession or accept a recession,” he added.
“It’s a rather difficult, embarrassing situation for the leadership.”
‘I Don’t See Hope Now’
Mike, 27, works at a polymer additives factory in a city in eastern China’s Zhejiang Province, one of the country’s private sector hubs. Mike spoke to The Epoch Times using an alias for fear of CCP reprisals.
He graduated from college in 2017 with a major in urban underground space engineering. In July 2020, after his two-year contract with a subway project in southern China’s Hunan Province ended, he moved to his current city to join the factory that had just opened. The factory specializes in higher quality products tailored to the overseas market.
In May 2022, a big Western European company didn’t renew its annual order of 15,000 pounds of products due to the geopolitical tensions between China and Europe, he said. Since then, the factory hasn’t been able to secure any replacement orders to make up for this shortfall. It has now stopped production and is selling its inventories.
The business, he said, is looking for ways to adjust the product line to cater to the domestic market, but “securing orders will be very difficult” because demand is low.
Mike’s small factory wasn’t alone. According to him, a nearby auto parts factory has cut 3,000 workers or 30 percent of its workforce. In addition, he said workers at that factory no longer have overtime opportunities, a main source for them to earn above the minimum line to make ends meet.
When Mike first moved to Zhejiang, he thought his life was going somewhere. So he bought an apartment in the city in October 2020. However, the economy took a downturn and the three-year pandemic lockdowns exhausted many, he said.
“I don’t see hope now,” he told The Epoch Times. “Everyone is dealing with much stress in life.”
As a factory supervisor, Mike makes about 9,000 yuan a month, or $1,260. His mortgage is 6,000 yuan, or two-thirds of his monthly income. After paying for all necessities, he could hardly save anything, he said. And he still needs to save for a car. Even though his girlfriend, unlike many Chinese women, doesn’t require Mike to have a car and an apartment to marry, he considers it “a man’s obligation” to achieve those before marriage.
Mike’s hope is to have some savings to take care of his parents, at least to cover their medical expenses when they get older. He wants a child but would rather wait until he’s financially able to provide the baby with a good life. As to having more than one child now that the one-child policy has ended, Mike said “no” without hesitation. “I wouldn’t be able to afford that!”
When asked about Chinese state media reports that the economy has been steadily recovering, Mike replied, “That’s propaganda! It’s exactly the opposite of how we feel among the people.”
“As far as my life goes, I’m in a recession,” he added.
wow! a staggering $113 billion loss over the past two years
(zerohedge)
China’s Evergrande Reports $113 Billion Loss Over Two Years
TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 06:25 PM
Two years after it was halted, left for dead, and effectively bankrupted in a controlled demolition, China’s one-time property giant, Evergrande, reported long-delayed results and boy were they a whopper: they showed that in 2021 and 2022, the company generated mindblowing losses of $113 billion, on $340 billion in liabilities.
The losses – The company’s first since its 2009 listing, and a sharp reversal from the 8 billion yuan profit in 2020 – showed “the existence of material uncertainties that may cast significant doubt on the Group’s ability to continue as a going concern”, Evergrande said in a stock exchange filing, which of course is irrelevant since much of the defaulted company’s capital structure has been in some state of restructuring ever since 2021.
Once China’s largest real estate company, Evergrande was the match that lit China’s property crisis in 2021 when it was found to be drowning in more than $300 billion in liabilities, sparking a nationwide property crisis that had global ramifications and sent the world’s largest asset class (according to Goldman) reeling and plunging China’s economy into a brutal slowdown from which it has been unable to recover to this day.
Trading in the company’s Hong Kong-listed shares has been suspended since March 2022.
Back then, Evergrande said that it would not be able to publish its 2021 audited results within the timeframe required by Hong Kong’s listing rules, blaming the delay on “a large number of additional audit procedures” and the Covid-19 pandemic.
The company said on Monday it had suffered a net loss of 686.22 billion yuan in 2021 and 125.81 billion yuan in 2022, in long-delayed Hong Kong stock exchange filings that could bring Evergrande closer to a resumption of trading.
Evergrande saw its sales plummet during the crisis: according to Bloomberg, revenue plunged by half in 2021 to about 250 billion yuan, before falling further last year to 230 billion yuan, missing the average estimate of six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
The developer’s debt pile meanwhile continued to balloon, with total liabilities reaching 2.58 trillion yuan at the end of 2021, or almost $360 billion, on soaring undelivered projects. That figure fell slightly to 2.44 trillion yuan as of December last year.
The biggest liabilities last year were from trade and other payables, which stood at around 1 trillion yuan as of December. Current borrowings fell slightly from a year earlier to 587 billion yuan.
“The results are not encouraging at all,” said Ting Meng, a senior credit strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. While not a game changer, they confirm how the company has been in deep distress and struggling with operations and repayments, Meng said.
Still, Evergrande could be closer to resuming trading of its shares after reporting the delayed statements. Trading of the shares was suspended since March 2022, risking a delisting if there’s no resumption within 18 months.
“Evergrande’s successful publication would help to avert a forced delisting and advance the company’s debt restructuring,” said Leonard Law, senior credit analyst with Lucror Analytics Pte. “That said, the results do not really matter ultimately, as we believe the business is already broken.”
The defaulted real estate giant asked to convene meetings for offshore creditors to approve its credit overhaul plan, after reporting long-delayed financial statements for 2021 and 2022. Court hearings are scheduled to take place next week, exchange filings showed late Monday.
“There’s potential for approval of its debt-restructuring plan,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Daniel Fan and Adrian Sim. “China Evergrande might act fast to avoid possible breakdown due to offshore litigation for its defaults.”
Others remain unconvinced that the shares can resume trading after Evergrande’s auditor, Prism, said it was unable to obtain sufficient audit evidence to give an opinion on the statements. It remains “highly uncertain” given that the auditor signaled skepticism over the company’s ability to continue as a going concern, said Zerlina Zeng, senior credit analyst at CreditSights, Bloomberg reported.
END
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK
The pound falls after UK inflation rate slides as investors believe the UK will lower rates
(CNBC)
UK inflation rate slides to 7.9% in June, below expectations
WED, JUL 19 20232:04 AM
CNBC
KEY POINTS
*Economists polled by Reuters had projected an annual rise in the headline consumer price index of 8.2%, following the hotter-than-expected 8.7% reading of May.
*Core inflation — which excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices — remained sticky at an annualized 6.9%, but fell from a 31-year high of 7.1% in May.
LONDON — U.K. inflation cooled significantly in June, coming in below consensus expectations at 7.9% annually.
Economists polled by Reuters had projected an annual rise in the headline consumer price index of 8.2%, following May’s hotter-than-expected 8.7% reading, but annualized price rises continue to run well above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
On a monthly basis, headline CPI increased by 0.1%, below a consensus forecast of 0.4%. Core inflation — which excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices — remained sticky at an annualized 6.9%, but fell from a 31- year high of 7.1% in May.
Falling prices for motor fuel made the largest downward contributions to the monthly change in the CPI annual rate, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. Food prices rose in June, but by less than in the same period of last year.
“There were no large offsetting upward contributions to the change in the rate,” the ONS added.
Sterling slid 0.6% against the dollar on Wednesday, hovering around $1.296 as of 7:50 a.m. London time.
Chief Secretary to the Treasury John Glen told CNBC on Wednesday that the larger-than-expected decline in the inflation rate was “very encouraging.”
“But there’s no complacency here in the Treasury,” he added. “We’re working closely in lockstep with the Bank of England as we try to halve it this year and get it down to its long term norm of 2%.”
Public sector pay rise won’t be inflationary, UK Treasury’s Glen says
The U.K. has endured persistently high inflation that both the government and the Bank of England have warned could become entrenched in the economy, as a cost-of-living crisis and a tight labor market fuel wage price increases.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt told an audience in the City of London earlier this month that high wage settlements were harming their efforts to contain inflation.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development last month projected that the U.K. will experience the highest level of inflation among all advanced economies this year, with a headline annual rate of 6.9%.
The Bank of England implemented a bumper 50-basis-point hike to interest rates last month, its 13th consecutive increase, as the Monetary Policy Committee struggles to quash demand and rein in inflation.
After the U.K. base rate went from 0.1% to 5% over the last 20 months, markets are narrowly pricing in another aggressive half-point hike to 5.5% at the MPC’s August meeting.
A ‘glimmer of light’
Although energy and fuel prices are taking headline inflation in the “right direction,” stubbornly high core inflation and food costs mean Wednesday’s print is unlikely to offer any “real relief to struggling households and businesses,” said Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales.
“June’s decline in inflation should be followed by a hefty fall in July, with lower energy bills – following the reduction in Ofgem’s energy price cap – likely to pull the headline rate below 7%,” Thiru said in a statement.
He added that core inflation should continue to trend downwards, as the lagged effects of the Bank of England’s monetary policy tightening and the government’s tax increases squeeze demand. He nevertheless warned this will come “at the expense of a notably weaker economy and higher unemployment.”
“While interest rates will probably rise again in August, focusing too much on current inflation data to set rates can lead to damaging policy mistakes given the long time lag between rate rises and their effect on the wider economy,” Thiru said.
Cracks are forming in the UK economy, strategist says
Marcus Brookes, chief investment officer at Quilter Investors, said that the fall in CPI represented a “glimmer of light,” but “still leaves us wondering once again why the U.K. is such a drastic outlier” among major economies when it comes to inflation.
“Demand has withstood both inflation and the rise in rates, but cracks are appearing, and as more mortgage holders get exposed to the current rates, the economy is likely to be hit as a result.”
Brookes noted that this path to a likely recession next year may be necessary in order to get inflation back to target, with the Bank of England raising rates further and with fiscal tightening unlikely, as the government faces an election in 2024.
“Inflation should begin to come back down to more palatable levels soon, but as we have seen these forecasts are unpredictable,” he added.
“For investors, this means seeking shelter in quality companies that can navigate this difficult environment, while also considering U.K. fixed income investments, such as gilts, as these look at attractive prices right now as we head into a potentially difficult economic period.”
On Friday, July 7, 2023, news broke in the financial market media that the “BRICS” (that is, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) will implement their plan to create a new international currency for trading and financial transactions, and that this new currency will be “gold backed.”
Most recently, on June 2, 2023, the foreign ministers of the BRICS—as well as representatives from more than twelve countries—met in Cape Town, South Africa (interestingly at the “Cape of Good Hope”). Among other things, it was emphasized that they wanted to create an international trading currency. Undoubtedly, this is an undertaking that could have consequences of epic proportions.
After all, the BRICS countries represent about 3.2 billion people, approximately 40 percent of the world’s population, with a combined economic output nearly the size of the economy of the United States of America. And there are also many other countries (such as Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iran, Algeria, Argentina, and Kazakhstan) that might want to join the BRICS club.
The goal of the BRICS countries is to reduce their economic and political dependence on the US dollar, challenging “US dollar imperialism.”
To this end, they want to create a new international currency for commercial and financial transactions, replacing the US dollar as the means of transaction unit.
The reason is obvious.
The US administration has on many occasions used the greenback as a “geopolitical weapon” and engaged in a kind of “financial warfare”: Washington sanctions enemy countries by denying them access to the US dollar capital market, but above all, it shuts them off from the international US dollar-centric payment system.
The freezing of Russia’s currency reserves (the equivalent of almost six hundred billion US dollars is currently at stake) has set off alarm bells in many non-Western countries. It has reminded a number of them that holding US dollars comes with a political risk. This, in turn, has prompted many to restructure their international foreign reserves: holding fewer US dollars, switching to other (smaller) currencies, but above all, buying more gold.
But how might the BRICS manage to swim away from the US dollar? While no details are available yet about how the new BRICS currency might be structured, it should not stop us from speculating about what lies ahead.
The BRICS could establish a new bank (the “BRICS Bank”), funded by gold deposits from BRICS central banks. The physically deposited gold holdings would be shown on the asset side of the BRICS bank’s balance sheet—and could be denominated, for example, “BRICS gold,” where one BRICS gold represents one gram of physical gold.
The BRICS Bank can then grant loans denominated in BRICS gold (for example, to exporters from BRICS countries and/or to importers of goods from abroad). To fund the loans, the BRICS Bank makes a credit contract with the holders of BRICS gold: The holders of BRICS gold agree to transfer their deposit to the BRICS Bank for, say, one month, or one or two years, against receiving an interest rate. What is more, the BRICS Bank, and it can also accept further gold deposits from international investors, who can hold (interest-bearing) BRICS gold deposits this way.
BRICS gold could henceforth be used by the BRICS countries and their trading partners as international money, as an international unit of account in global trade and financial transactions. Incidentally, the new de facto gold currency would not even have to be physically minted but could be and remain an accounting-only unit while being redeemable on demand.
The exporters from the BRICS countries and the other member countries would, however, have to be willing to sell their goods against BRICS gold instead of US dollars and other Western fiat currencies, and the importers from the Western countries would have to be willing and able to pay their bills in BRICS gold.
How do you get BRICS gold? Those demanding BRICS gold must either get a BRICS gold loan from the BRICS Bank or purchase gold in the market and deposit it with the BRICS Bank or a designated custodian, and the gold deposit is then credited to his account in the form of BRICS gold.
For example, in payment transactions, the goods importer’s BRICS gold deposits (held, for example, at the BRICS Bank) are credited to the account of the exporter of goods (also held at the BRICS Bank or at a correspondent bank or gold custodian).
However, the transition, the use of BRICS gold as an international trade and transaction currency, would most likely have far-reaching consequences:
(1) It would presumably lead to a (sharp) increase in the demand for gold compared to current levels, with not only gold prices measured in US dollars, euros, etc. but also in the currencies of the BRICS countries increasing (substantially).
(2) Such an increase in the gold price would devalue the purchasing power of the official currencies—not only the US dollar but also the BRICS currencies—against the yellow metal. Also, the prices of goods in terms of the official fiat currencies would most likely skyrocket, debasing the purchasing power of presumably all existing fiat currencies.
(3) The BRICS countries would build up gold reserves to the extent that they run, or will run, trade surpluses. They would presumably be the winners of the “currency switch,” while the countries with trade deficits (first and foremost, the US) would lose out.
BRICS official gold holdings, in billion US dollars, Q1 2023
Source: Refinitiv; own calculations. The BRICS gold reserves amounted to 5,452.7 tons in the first quarter of 2023 (market value currently around 350 billion US Dollars).
These few considerations already show how disrupting the topic of “creating a new gold-backed international trading currency” could be: the BRICS could well trigger landslide-like changes in the global economic and financial structure. Still, it will be interesting to see how the BRICS countries intend to proceed at their August 22–24 meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa.
end
RUSSIA/BRICS/(SOUTH AFRICA)
Putin will attend the BRICS meeting only by video conferencing
(zerohedge)
Putin Pulls Out Of Attending BRICS Summit Over Arrest Warrant Dilemma
WEDNESDAY, JUL 19, 2023 – 11:05 AM
South Africa now says Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the BRICS summit hosted in the country next month. As of just within the last days, the Kremlin was signaling he was committed to attending in person, despite the International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant hanging over him.
South Africa’s deputy president Paul Mashatile said in a recent statement, “We understand we are bound by the Rome Statute but we can’t invite someone and then you arrest them. You can understand our dilemma.”
BBC is reporting the change in plans Wednesday, writing that “The announcement comes after South Africa’s leader said any attempt to arrest Vladimir Putin would be a declaration of war against Russia.”
His arrival on South African would have have required South African authorities to act, or else the country would be in violation of the Rome Statute.
“Putin decided to participate in the BRICS summit via videoconferencing, it will be a full-fledged participation,” Kremlin spokesperson Dimitry Peskov confirmed to RIA Novosti. Foreign minister Sergey Lavrov will attend, representing Russia.
A statement by the South African presidency’s office described Putin’s decision not to attend as “mutual” and that the decision was reached as a result of a “number of consultations” on the summit. But more importantly, President Cyril Ramaphosa had said Tuesday:
“I must highlight, for the sake of transparency, that South Africa has obvious problems with executing a request to arrest and surrender President Putin,” he said. “Russia has made it clear that arresting its sitting president would be a declaration of war.”
While President Ramaphosa has been seen as sympathetic to Putin, it has been South Africa’s leading opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), which has pressured the government to arrest the Russian leader if he arrives for the summit.
The first major curb on his travel since Ukraine war…
There is precedent for heads of state facing ICC warrants being granted temporary immunity – for example when Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir visited South Africa in 2015 despite at the time being wanted by the ICC for war crimes. But this was legally challenged within the South African courts at the time.
BRICS, an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – is increasingly being seen as an alternative to the G7 and these countries have largely broken from the West’s approach to the Ukraine conflict. They’ve either been ‘neutral’ of have made statements which appear sympathetic to Moscow when it comes to the stand-off with NATO.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
ROBERT H FOR US;
(PEPE ESCOBAR)
In Sicily, Top of the Mountain, Watching the New Barbarians — Strategic Culture
Pepe never disappoints. And Neocons do not either. They are trying to get the Germans to send a 500 kilometer missile system Called Taurus to Ukraine to hit Russia to ignite a broader response. They will sacrifice Germany out of desperation in trying to ignite a broader war. We can only hope Germany exhibits common sense and says no.
Israeli fighter pilots and commandos threaten to resign if judicial reform proceeds
(zerohedge)
Israeli Fighter Pilots, Commandos Threaten To Resign If Judicial Reform Proceeds
TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 07:05 PM
More than a thousand Israeli military reservists have threatened to stop reporting for duty — or resign altogether — if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government proceeds with a plan to overhaul the country’s judicial system this month. Among those threatening to withhold their service are hundreds of elite fighter pilots and commandos.
Given reservists are an essential part of Israel’s military, and especially its air force, the country’s military leaders say such a mass walkout could have a significant impact on the country’s military operational capacity. They also fear a scenario where activism by reservists could inspire absenteeism among the country’s full-time service members.
In a letter sent to the commander of Sayeret Matkal, a highly secretive commando unit, more than 300 reservists declared:
“In the face of recent legislative procedures that the government is advancing…while completely ignoring that this legislation is destroying the shared basis of Israeli society and tearing apart the nation, our conscience does not permit us to stand aside.”
Other reservists are drafting group resignation letters with the intent of submitting them in the coming days, reports The New York Times. In contrast to American reservists, who typically drill for just a weekend a month and two weeks in the summer, Israeli pilots are required to participate in multiple training exercises per month, and routinely participate in warfare.
The threat of a weakening of Israeli’s military capacity comes during a year of heightened hostilities, with the Israeli Defense Forces targeting adversaries in the occupied West Bank, the Gaza Strip, southern Lebanon and Syria.
Political turmoil has steadily boiled across Israel since Netanyahu re-ascended to the prime minister’s office by assembling a ruling coalition that is dominated to an unprecedented extent by ultra-nationalist and religious extremists. Inside Israel, the most controversial item on the government’s agenda is a scheme to overhaul the country’s judicial system.
Over much of the year, the country has witnessed massive protests against the plan. In March, Netanyahu bowed to the pressure and put the legislative initiative on pause, saying, “When there’s an option to avoid civil war through dialogue, I take a time-out for dialogue.”
Now, however, seeking to more incrementally effect change, the ruling coalition is pushing to enact a law by month’s end that would remove the supreme court’s ability to block government action or policy via an evaluation of its “reasonableness” —a standard that Netanyahu and allies say is so flexible that it gives the high court undue power.
Netanyahu pushed back against the newest wave of resistance to the judicial reform, saying concerns over negating the reasonableness standard are “removed from reality and intended to scare people over nothing.” He also admonished service members threatening not to show up for duty, saying, “In a democracy, the military is subordinate to the elected government and not the opposite.”
However, 63-year-old Gal Nufar, a colonel in an airborne unit, tells the Journal, “Originally I thought doing something like this would be really like betraying the army. But over the past months, I see that they are bringing us to the point that I’m most fearful of…a regime coup that won’t allow for any balance or any checks on the government.”
END
GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES
Robert H to us;
Really crazy. Makes one wonder if this is a result of vaccines. Wonder if this happening elsewhere.
The WHO issued a warning regarding an “unusual surge” of myocarditis cases in babies that were born within the United Kingdom.
The increase in myocarditis has been dramatic. A hospital in the South Wales region reported only one myocarditis case in infants and newborns over the past six years.
However, over a span of less than a year, between June 2022 and April 2023, “ten babies under 28 days of age presented with symptoms of myocarditis” at that same hospital.
“I know what you’re thinking at this point,” said Epoch Times host Roman Balmakov. “What could have possibly led to this increase in myocarditis cases in babies during the years 2022 to 2023? Could it have anything to do with the large-scale push to get everyone in the country, including pregnant women, fully vaccinated?”
The World Health Organization (WHO) suspects that the enterovirus could be the cause of this troubling rise in myocarditis rates. However, they recognize that occurrences of myocarditis due to this virus are typically “rare.”
It remains puzzling as to why the WHO is not considering or pursuing an inquiry into whether the experimental vaccine, which has been administered to millions of pregnant women, might potentially be linked to this troubling trend.
Perhaps the WHO should take a closer look and investigate if this disturbing phenomenon has anything to do with the sudden rise in myocarditis rates among newborns in the UK.
Since there was no preceding infection, allergy, or drug toxicity exposure, the patient was diagnosed with post-vaccination pneumonia, myopericarditis, hepatitis, nephritis, gastroenteritis, cystitis
Although neither type of inflammation is fatal by itself, arrhythmia is reported to be the most common cause of death in patients with atrial myopericarditis. In the present case, arrhythmia of atrial origin was assumed as the cause of cardiac failure and death. In sudden post-vaccination deaths, aggressive autopsy systemic search and histological examination involving extensive sectioning of the heart, including the atrium, are indispensable.’
Why? In this COVID era, would the media fail to note her vaccine status? Is this drugs? Is this Fentanly? Is this COVID vaccine? Is this ‘silent’ myocarditis with cardiac arrest & sudden death?
to mRNA technology based COVID gene injections; Iversen unpacks the paper & McCullough does well to explain minutia; excellent succinct interview! the COVID vaccine is deadly
Watch now (11 min) | By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH One way to tell if a journalist is doing a good job is to see the level of detail they give to news developments. I sat down with Kim Iversen from my clinic and she went over the figures of our recent manuscript on autopsies after COVID-19 vaccination. This interview is helpful in understanding the data…
Passenger takes control of plane, crashes in Massachusetts after pilot has medical problem; the pilot was flown by helicopter to a Boston hospital. He is in serious life-threatening condition from Westchester, New York, crashed near a runway at Martha’s Vineyard Airport in West Tisbury, Massachusetts, Massachusetts State Police said in a news release. “Preliminary investigation indicates that the 79-year-(old) male pilot suffered a medical emergency upon final approach,” police said.’
RFK Jr Calls for NATO to Be DisbandedDemocrat presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has called for the globalist North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to be disbanded.READ MORE
Biden Spokesman John Kirby Insists Abortion is Necessary for Military Readiness (VIDEO)Read more…Cori Bush Says Abortion Medications Provide A ‘Lifeline’ for ‘Trans Folks’Read more…Australian sailor and dog rescued after three months lost at sea: ReportsRead more…Charles Barkley Defends Bud Light, Mocks ‘Redneck’ & ‘A**hole’ BoycottersRead more…‘Pink Beret’ Husband Charged With Jan. 6 Crimes at US CapitolRead more…Rep. Gaetz Will Introduce National Prayer In School LawRead more…Billionaire Tied to Jeffrey Epstein Just Gave Biden a Massive GiftRead more…‘Sound of Freedom’ Continues To Break Box Office Expectations, Eyes Milestone MarkRead more…
NEWS ADDICTS
VACCINE IMPACT/
New Documentary on Medically Kidnapped Girl Whose Mother Committed Suicide is the Most Powerful Film Ever Produced Exposing Medical Kidnapping
July 18, 2023 7:07 pm
Last night I watched the new documentary that was released by Netflix last month (June, 2023), “Take Care of Maya.” This is, by far, the best documentary I have ever watched that exposes the criminal enterprise allowed to operate in this country, and which I have been covering as a journalist for about a decade now, medical kidnapping. The documentary shows the true story of the Kowalski family of Florida, a medical kidnapping horror story that we have covered in previous articles. The documentary was produced by Caitlin Keating, who also writes for People Magazine. Here is an excerpt that was published just before the film was released on Netflix. Title: “An Allegation of Munchausen by Proxy, a Mom’s Suicide, a Daughter’s Pain: ‘Take Care of Maya’ Exclusive Clip.” Description: “Maya Kowalski was rushed to the ER at Johns Hopkins All Children’s Hospital in St. Petersburg, Fla., in the early morning of October 7, 2016. She had crippling stomach pain (‘so severe, her knees were going up to her chest, and she was screaming,’ says her father, Jack,) related to the rare neurological condition complex regional pain syndrome or CRPS. The 17-year-old’s first memory was with her mom days later at the ICU. She kissed Maya on the forehead, told her she loved her, and they’d see each other the next day. ‘I never saw her again,’ Maya says.” This film clearly exposes how a medical doctor who in reality is not even practicing medicine, but is acting as a forensic criminal investigator with ZERO training in law enforcement or forensic evidence, the corrupt pediatric specialty of “Child Abuse Specialist” which is a recent specialty started around 2010, has the enormous power to destroy families, as judges are all too quick to accept their “advice”. Maya’s mother was denied the opportunity to even hug her daughter after one court hearing, and ended up committing suicide a short time later giving up all hope that she would ever be reunited with her daughter again. This film is far more significant in exposing child trafficking in this country than the fictional Sound of Freedom movie, in my opinion, and shows that the horror of child trafficking in this country is not just limited to sex trafficking, but includes medical kidnapping by the pharmaceutical cartels as well.
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1218 DOWN 0.0009
USA/ YEN 139.91 UP 0.896 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2913 DOWN 0.01198
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3183 UP .0017 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 17 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 1.02 PTS OR 0.03%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 63.41 PTS OR 0.33%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .55 % // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 63.41 PTS OR 0.33%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.02 PTS OR 0.03%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.55%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 402.14 PTS OR 1.24%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1973.75
silver:$25.02
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 99.95 UP 32 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.2270
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2340)
TURKISH LIRA: 26.90 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.460…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from TUESDAY at 3.788% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.900 DOWN 1 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 145.11 points or 1.95%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 0.28 PTS OR 0.20%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 16.41 PTS OR 0.22%
Spain IBEX DOWN 5.40 PTS OR 0.06%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 14.39 PTS OR 0.05%
WTI Oil price 75.51 12: EST
Brent Oil: 79.55 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 91.35 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 45//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4020 UP 5 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.2505 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.1203 DOWN 0.0025 OR 25 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2927 DOWN .01060 or 106 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.222 % UP 1 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 139.67 UP 0.649 //YEN DOWN 65 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3159 DOWN .0007 CDN dollar, UP 7 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 75.29
Brent OIL: 79.38
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS pts to 3.749%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 6 BASIS PTS to 3.849%
USA 2 YR BOND:UP 1 PTS AT 4.762%
USA dollar index: 99.99 UP 36 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.80 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 91.397 DOWN 0 AND 50/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 109.28 PTS OR 0.31%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 15.00 PTS OR 0.095%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.64 UP 0.34 PTS (2.56)%
GLD: $183.67 UP 0.03 OR 0.016%
SLV/ $23.10 UP .11 OR 0.48%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:
Another Day, Another Short-Squeeze For Stocks; Yield Curve Yells ‘Recession’
WEDNESDAY, JUL 19, 2023 – 04:00 PM
It’s like deja vu all over again…
For the second day in a row, US macro data disappointed notably (Housing data today was not good at all). That is the biggest 2-day decline the index since Jan 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
And for the third day in a row, none of that mattered as the algos squeezed the shorts hard at the cash open…
Source: Bloomberg
Nasdaq underperformed on the day (for a change) and ended in the red, with The Dow, S&P , and Small Caps all making modest gains…
Banks were excitedly bid once again…
Source: Bloomberg
For a few brief excitable moments, AAPL (and the AI stocks) all spiked after BBG headlines about AAPL developing a LLM, but that faded as reality was just a copycat and nothing new…
NVDA got excited for an even briefer moment and then faded into the red…
VIX continues to hover with a 13 handle (but VVIX signals some expectation of trouble ahead)…
Source: Bloomberg
The S&P 500 is at its highest since April 2022… but the credit market ain’t buying it…
Source: Bloomberg
Yields were lower across the curve today with the long-end outperforming. On the week, the 2Y yield is unch while 30Y is down around 9bps…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (2s10s) flattened once again (back near its most-inverted of the cycle)…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar was stronger today, back to 5 day highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin bounced modestly on the day, back above the $30,000 level…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold chopped around on the day but ended unch…
Oil prices ended lower on the day, with WTI testing back down to $75 after DOE reported sizable inventory draws (don’t ask us!!)…
Finally, we note that there is none, nada, zip interesting in hedging downside here. In fact, the S&P 500 skew is at a record low…
Source: Bloomberg
What could possibly go wrong?
b) THIS MORNING TRADING//
END
II) USA DATA/
a good indicator of a decline in the uSA economy
(zerohedge)
US Housing Starts, Permits Plunged In June
WEDNESDAY, JUL 19, 2023 – 08:40 AM
After a surprising surge in May, US Housing Starts and Building Permits both decline in June (-8.0% MoM and -3.7% MoM respectively) and Starts saw sizable downward revisions from last month (from +21.7% MoM to +15.7% MoM).
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, only single-family building permits increased in June (6th month in a row of increases). Multi-family permits and both single- and multi-family Starts dropped…
Source: Bloomberg
These MoM moves have dragged the Starts and Permits SAAR down notably (1.434mm and 1.440mm respectively)…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally we note that while Housing Starts and Completions remain well off their 2022 highs, Construction Jobs remain very close to those highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Is there a wake-up for residential construction employment coming?
Mortgage Bankers Association data released earlier on Wednesday showed applications for home purchases dropped last week as the contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage — while improved — remained close to 7%.
end
GOLDMAN SACHS EARNINGS
Another sign that the USA is faltering: Goldman Sachs profit plunges
(zerohedge)
Goldman Profit Plunges As Banking, FICC Miss; CEO DJ Sol Hammered By Multiple Write downs
WEDNESDAY, JUL 19, 2023 – 10:12 AM
After what was a lengthy and very uncharacteristic guide-down process by a bank that has historically never preannounced earnings (and certainly not bad earnings), with Bloomberg reporting that Goldman “has embraced a new game plan to avoid a third straight quarter of disappointing investors on earnings day” and breaking “with its own long-standing convention, Goldman executives have been actively downplaying expectations for results that will be disclosed next week”, this morning Goldman did not disappoint… or rather disappointed greatly when it reported its lowest quarterly profit in almost six years, weighed down by falling trading and investment banking and brutal losses tied to the Wall Street’s firm’s retreat from an ill-fated push into consumer banking.
Goldman’s net income plunged by 65% to $1.1 billion in the second quarter, down from $2.8 billion a year earlier, as revenues came in fractionally stronger than expected, despite some softness in the all important FICC sales and trading group. Still, the top line slumped 8% from a year ago with Global Markets revenue sliding 14%. Here are the details:
According to Mike Mayo this was Goldman’s second worst quarter for CEO David Solomon, and the worst non-pandemic quarter in 5 years.
Return on equity, a key measure of profitability, slid to 4% in the quarter — the worst among the top US banks.
Net revenue $10.90 billion, -8.2% y/y, beating the estimate $10.46 billion
Global Banking & Markets net revenues $7.19 billion, beating est. $6.69 billion
Investment banking revenue $1.43 billion, missing est $1.51 billion
Advisory revenue $645 million, missing est $774.9 million
Equity underwriting rev. $338 million, beating est $292.4 million
Debt underwriting rev. $448 million, beating est $445.9 million
EPS $3.08, down 60% from $7.73 a year ago, and missing est $3.18
Total assets under supervision increased to a record $2.71 trillion, up from $2.67 trillion as of March 31.
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Big story!! Starwood defaults on $212.4 million Atlanta office tower. CRE dominos are falling like humpty dumpty.
(zerohedge)
CRE Dominos Fall: Starwood Defaults On $212.4 Million Atlanta Office Tower
WEDNESDAY, JUL 19, 2023 – 06:55 AM
Starwood Capital Group has defaulted on a $212.5 million mortgage backed by an office building in Sandy Springs, an ultra-wealthy suburb in northern Fulton County, Georgia, just above Atlanta.
The mortgage is on Tower Place 100, a 790,000 sqft mixed-use property built in 1974 and renovated in 2017. The largest tenant is WeWork companies which occupy 84,594 sqft.
At the end of 2022, the tower was 62% leased, down from 87% in 2018 when the loan was originated.
Bloomberg data shows the loan matured on July 9. Starwood has failed to refinance or pay off the debt. Delinquency commentary on the Terminal reads, “Borrower confirmed they are unable to pay off the loan at maturity. Counsel engaged. PNA pending.”
CRE lending standards have tightened considerably in response to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes over the past sixteen months to combat inflation. Further tightening in lending was seen earlier this year after several regional banks failed. The combination of the two, plus remote and hybrid work, has led to declining property values.
Last month, Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. made the “difficult decision” to stop payment on a $558 million loan for San Fransico’s largest shopping mall after “challenging operating conditions.” Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. also ceased making payments on a $725 million CMBS loan secured by two of its San Francisco hotels.
Meanwhile, financing-data firm Trepp showed the delinquency rate for offices with CMBS loans soared to 4.5% in June from 1.7% a year earlier.
“Most CMBS financing is non-recourse, which means owners can walk away from properties without exposing themselves to further financial damages,” Bloomberg noted. And that’s precisely what owners have been doing and will continue to do.
We noted last month that “full-blown trouble” is ahead for the CRE office space.
end
Republicans jump to Trump’s defense over imminent arrest and indictment
(zerohedge)
Top Republicans Jump To Trump’s Defense Over Imminent ‘Arrest And Indictment’
TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 11:05 PM
(Update 1555ET): Top Republicans have rushed to the defense of former President Trump – their current best hope of defeating Joe Biden in a 2024 match-up.
“Recently President Trump went up in the polls and was actually surpassing President Biden for reelection. So what do they do now? Weaponize government to go after their No. 1 opponent,” House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) told reporters on Tuesday, following Trump’s announcement that her would likely be “indicted and arrested” soon over his alleged role in January 6th.
“This is not equal justice. They treat people differently and they go after their adversaries,” McCarthy continued.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) also came to Trump’s defense, noting that the news comes as the House Oversight Committee is slated to hear testimony from two IRS whistleblowers who alleged that an investigation into Hunter Biden was stonewalled by prosecutors.
“Now you see the Biden administration going after President Trump once again, it begs that question — is there a double standard? Is justice being administered equally?” asked Scalise at the House GOP conference presser.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) also chimed in, saying that the charges are “ridiculous,” and that special counsel Jack Smith is “weaponizing” the DOJ against Trump.
“If this is the direction America is going — we are worse than Russia, we are worse than China. We are worse than some of the most corrupt third world countries, and this needs to end,” she said, adding “It’s an absolute lie.”
Greene also called Smith a “weak little bitch” on Twitter.
Meanwhile, GOP Reps. Jim Jordan (OH) and Mary Miller (IL) also had words for the Biden administration.
“Joe Biden’s DOJ: Attack the Portland Federal Courthouse? No problem. Intimidate #SCOTUS justices to influence a court decision? No big deal. But if you’re President Trump and do nothing wrong? PROSECUTE. Americans are tired of the double standard!” Jordan tweeted.
“The DOJ has become a political agency, targeting Joe Biden’s political opponents while covering up Joe Biden’s crimes. The DOJ is attacking our democracy by actively interfering in the 2024 Election,” tweeted Miller.
* * *
Former President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he expects to be arrested and indicted by special counsel Jack Smith in connection with the January 6th Grand Jury investigation.
“Deranged Jack Smith, the prosecutor with Joe Biden’s DOJ, sent a letter (again, it was Sunday night!) stating that I am a TARGET of the January 6th Grand Jury investigation, and giving me a very short 4 days to report to the Grand Jury, which almost always means an Arrest and Indictment,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
President Biden’s DOJ have cast a wide net in their investigation into President Trump, Biden’s chief rival in the 2024 US election. Trump is expected to travel to Iowa on Tuesday, where he will tape a town hall with Fox News host Sean Hannity.
Prosecutors in Georgia are conducting a separate investigation into efforts by Trump to reverse his election law in that state, with the top prosecutor in Fulton County signaling that she expects to announce charging decisions in the first several weeks since Sunday. –AP
While the charges Smith is considering are unknown, several lawyers – ranging from the House committee that investigated the Jan. 6 riot to outsiders writing “model prosecution memos” (per the NYT) have focused on the ‘the attempted corrupt obstruction of an official proceeding’ under Section 1512(c) of Title 18, and conspiracy to defraud the government under Section 371 of Title 18.
Charges of obstructing an official proceeding (Congress’s session to count electoral college votes and certify Biden’s victory) have been brought against some Jan. 6 rioters. Charges of defrauding the government could get into broader actions before Jan. 6, like the scheme to have Trump supporters pretend to be alternative slates of official electors from contested states. –NYT
WOW! On Sunday night, while I was with my family, having just arrived from the Turning Point event in Florida, where I won the Straw Poll against all other Republican candidates with 85.7%, with all polls showing me leading in the Republican Primary by very substantial numbers, almost everyone predicting that I will be the Republican Nominee for President, and as I am leading Democrat Joe Biden in the polls by a lot, HORRIFYING NEWS for our Country was given to me by my attorneys.
Deranged Jack Smith, the prosecutor with Joe Biden’s DOJ, sent a letter (again, it was Sunday night!) stating that I am a TARGET of the January 6th Grand Jury investigation, and giving me a very short 4 days to report to the Grand Jury, which almost always means an Arrest and Indictment.
So now, Joe Biden’s Attorney General, Merrick Garland, who I turned down for the United States Supreme Court (in retrospect, based on his corrupt and unethical actions, a very wise decision!), together with Joe Biden’s Department of Injustice, have effectively issued a third Indictment and Arrest of Joe Biden’s NUMBER ONE POLITICAL OPPONENT, who is largely dominating him in the race for the Presidency. Nothing like this has ever happened in our Country before, or even close. They illegally spied on my Campaign, attacked me with a totally Fake “Dossier” that was funded by Hillary Clinton’s Campaign and the DNC, Impeached me twice (I won!), they failed on the Mueller Witch Hunt (No Collusion!), they failed on the Russia, Russia, Russia Hoax, the 51 “Intelligence” Agents fraud, the FBI/Twitter files, the DOJ/Facebook censorship, and every other scam imaginable. But on top of all of that, they have now effectively indicted me three times (the DOJ staffed and runs the D.A.’s Office in Manhattan), with a probable fourth coming from Atlanta, where the DOJ are in strict, and possibly illegal, coordination with the District Attorney, whose record on murder and other violent crime is abysmal. THIS WITCH HUNT IS ALL ABOUT ELECTION INTERFERENCE AND A COMPLETE AND TOTAL POLITICAL WEAPONIZATION OF LAW ENFORCEMENT! It is a very sad and dark period for our Nation!
Under the United States Constitution, I have the right to protest an Election that I am fully convinced was Rigged and Stolen, just as the Democrats have done against me in 2016. and many others have done over the ages. But the Democrats have gone much further than has ever happened before – they cheated on the elections. Rather than looking at the CHEATERS, the WEAPONI2ED DOJ AND FBI target and harass those who complain about the cheaters, and the massive fraud that took place. The prosecutor involved in this case, and likewise the Boxes Hoax, the Manhattan and Atlanta District Attorneys, the New York A.G., etc., has been overturned unanimously in the Supreme Court, headed and caused the Lois Lerner IRS scandal, and failed miserably in his prosecution of John Edwards, where the case was forced to be dropped, along with numerous other catastrophes. He has had a vicious but disastrous career, and is a known biased and obsessed Trump Hater (as is his family). Whether it’s their failure to mention the Presidential Records Act (Prosecutorial Misconduct), their dominance of the Manhattan D.A., including the fact that a Hillary Clinton lawyer, Mark Pomerantz, left a top Democrat law firm (run by Chuck Schumer’s brother) to join the D.A.’s Office and become a prosecutor against me, and then quit, against all rules, regulations, and laws when the Office would not prosecute (he wrongfully wrote a book while working at the Office and is now under scrutiny!), or a perfect phone call made to many lawyers and a Secretary of State, without any protestation of my call, because nothing that was said was wrong, (it was clearly a complaint about an election), these are all Hoaxes and Scams made up to stop me from fighting for the American People – BUT I WILL NEVER STOP!
This has been a neverending fight from the day I came down the escalator in Trump Tower, many years ago. So interesting that in this case the information was delivered to me on a Sunday night, less than 24 hours after I suggested during a major speech that the Federal Government ASSUME CONTROL of a filthy, unsanitary, neglected, and crimendden Washington. D.C., where murder and violent crime are rampant and people no longer want to go to our Nation’s Capital… and yet. that is where Biden’s DOJ actually wants my trial to take place, all because they think, especially after my strong words of a Federal takeover at the speech, a D.C jury will do whatever they want. VERY UNFAIR!
Smith knows this case is small potatoes compared to what he’s about to inflict on Trump and several associates for January 6. It’s very likely Smith will use the “classified docs” prosecution as leverage to seek pretrial detention for Trump when the special counsel indicts Trump for several J6-related offenses, which could include seditious conspiracy.
end
Seems that the Democrats are afraid of Robert Kennedy Jr especially on the vaccine front!
(Morgan/EpochTimes)
House Republicans Reject Democratic Pressure To Disinvite RFK Jr. From Testifying On Censorship
Republicans on the House Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government are moving ahead with plans to hear testimony from Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, after House Democrats and their supporters raised accusations Mr. Kennedy had made anti-Semitic remarks.
At a July 11 campaign event, Mr. Kennedy described research indicating that the genetic structure of SARS‑CoV‑2 had differing impacts on individuals of different races and ethnicities, including a lesser impact on ethnic Chinese and Ashkenazi Jews. Mr. Kennedy also discussed how bioweapons could potentially be designed with the intent to harm certain ethnic groups over others. The New York Post published an article based on Mr. Kennedy’s remarks, with the headline “RFK Jr. says COVID may have been ‘ethnically targeted’ to spare Jews.”
Mr. Kennedy has insisted he was not claiming SARS‑CoV‑2 was deliberately modified to “spare Jews,” as the New York Post put it. The controversy over his remarks comes as he’s scheduled to testify before the House Government Weaponization Subcommittee on July 20, where he will discuss government collusion with big tech companies to censor free speech.
The Congressional Integrity Project (CIP), an activist group with the stated goal of defending President Joe Biden and Democrats against Republican congressional investigations, sent a letter (pdf) to Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) on Sunday, accusing him and other House Republicans of an “antisemitic pattern” of behavior and calling for them to disinvite Mr. Kennedy. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) also issued a statement on Sunday, similarly accusing Mr. Kennedy of repeating a “vile antisemitic trope” and calling for his remarks to be “uniformly condemned.” Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) and Daniel Goldman (D-N.Y.), who sit on the House Government Weaponization Subcommittee, alsospoke out against Mr. Kennedy’s remarks.
Mr. Jordan rebuffed the Democratic pressure campaign to disinvite Mr. Kennedy on Monday. The Republican lawmaker distanced himself from Mr. Kennedy’s remarks about COVID-19 but insisted the House Government Weaponization Subcommittee would still have him on to talk about coordinated efforts between government offices and social media companies to throttle speech.
“I totally disagree with what he said, but he’s a Democrat. I disagree with other things he said, too. But we’re having him because of censorship,” Mr. Jordan told Politico on Monday.
NTD News reached out to Mr. Jordan for additional comment but did not receive a response by the time this article was published.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), similarly distanced himself from Mr. Kennedy’s remarks, but pushed back on the calls to disinvite the Democratic presidential candidate.
Mr. McCarthy said, “I disagree with everything [Mr. Kennedy] said,” but contended that the hearing’s focus is censorship. “I don’t think censoring somebody is actually the answer here.”
What RFK Jr. Said
In a video clip captured at his July 11 campaign event, Mr. Kennedy said with “COVID-19, there’s an argument that it is ethnically targeted.”
“COVID-19 attacks certain races disproportionately,” he added before describing how different ethnic groups have differences in the structure of their ACE2 receptors, which are the receptors that bind with SARS‑CoV‑2 and lead to COVID-19 infections.
“COVID-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese,” Mr. Kennedy said. “We don’t know whether it was deliberately targeted or not but there are papers out there that show the racial or ethnic differential and impact of that. We do know that the Chinese are spending hundreds of millions of dollars developing ethnic bioweapons and we [the United States] are developing ethnic bioweapons.”
In his article titled “RFK Jr. says COVID may have been ‘ethnically targeted’ to spare Jews,” New York Post wrote that Mr. Kennedy’s remark “echoes well-worn anti-Semitic literature blaming Jews for the emergence and spread of coronavirus which began circulating online shortly after the pandemic broke out, according to The Center for the Study of Contemporary European Jewry at the University of Tel Aviv’s 2021 Antisemitism Worldwide Report.”
Mr. Kennedy pushed back on the New York Post’s characterization of his comments in a July 15 tweet, saying the Post’s story is mistaken.
“I have never, ever suggested that the COVID-19 virus was targeted to spare Jews. I accurately pointed out—during an off-the-record conversation—that the U.S. and other governments are developing ethnically targeted bioweapons and that a 2021 study of the COVID-19 virus shows that COVID-19 appears to disproportionately affect certain races since the furin cleave docking site is most compatible with Blacks and Caucasians and least compatible with ethnic Chinese, Finns, and Ashkenazi Jews,” Mr. Kennedy wrote. “In that sense, it serves as a kind of proof of concept for ethnically targeted bioweapons. I do not believe and never implied that the ethnic effect was deliberately engineered.”
Mr. Kennedy shared a link to the 2021 study he was describing, which was published on the National Institutes of Health’s PubMed site.
Kennedy Has Sued Biden Over Censorship
While Mr. Kennedy and Mr. Biden are both running as Democrats, they’ve demonstrated differing views on a number of issues, including COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccine mandates and the war in Ukraine.
Mr. Kennedy founded the non-profit organization Children’s Health Defense (CHD), which has been critical of COVID-19 vaccines and vaccine mandates. Mr. Kennedy and CHD filed a federal lawsuit in March accusing the Biden administration of working with big tech companies to induce those companies to censor Mr. Kennedy’s constitutionally-protected speech.
A federal judge just issued a preliminary injunction against the Biden administration in a similar case, finding that a number of plaintiffs were “likely to succeed on the merits in establishing that the Government has used its power to silence the opposition.” That case, which was brought by Republican attorneys general in Louisiana and Missouri, described an instance in January of 2021 in which a White House official flagged a tweet by Mr. Kennedy and sent an email to Twitter officials stating, “Hey folks-Wanted to flag the below tweet and am wondering if we can get moving on the process of having it removed ASAP.”
Last week, the Biden administration won an appeal from a three-judge panel on the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, staying the lower court’s preliminary injunction while the lawsuit proceeds. The two-page appeals court decision did not specify the reasoning for staying the lower court’s injunction. The three judges on the panel were Circuit Judge Carl E. Stewart, an appointee of President Bill Clinton; Circuit Judge James Earl Graves Jr., an appointee of President Barack Obama; and Circuit Judge Andrew Stephen Oldham, an appointee of President Donald Trump.
end
BALTIMORE
Yesterday: Baltimore office tower dumped at a huge 63% discount to 2015 value
(zerohedge)
Beginning Of CRE Firesale? Baltimore Office Tower Dumped At 63% Discount
TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 07:45 PM
Following the failures of several regional banks earlier this year, we’ve been closely monitoring the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, noticing increasing risks in the office space market. CRE lending standards have tightened considerably in response to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes over the past sixteen months to combat inflation. Furthermore, depressed office-badge swipes and other occupancy metrics indicate a downshift in demand for office space.
The latest alarm bell of sliding CRE prices in downtown areas across major US cities is the sale of an office tower at One South Street in downtown Baltimore. The 30-story building was sold in June for $24 million, a 63.6% discount versus the tower’s 2015 sale of $66 million, according to The Baltimore Sun.
Opened in 1992, the tower has 479,000 square feet and is the first sale of its kind in the post-pandemic era. The Sun confirmed that Virginia-based American Real Estate Partners sold the building in a short sale to New York-based BHN Associates.
“Occupancy drives value and many buildings downtown are struggling to maintain that occupancy,” said Terri Harrington, a commercial real estate broker. The latest firesale could indicate more panic selling is ahead.
Some argue remote or hybrid work has forced a downward shift in office demand — but that’s not entirely the case, well, not at least in crime-ridden Baltimore. The depressed office building demand is a vote of confidence that Democrats in City Hall have failed to enforce law and order as progressive policies backfire.
According to Luis Quintero, an economics professor at the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, if office space goes vacant and property values plunge, the city could see a massive reduction in property and income tax revenue.
Several high-profile tenants have already left downtown Baltimore, including T. Rowe Price and Pandora.
Harrington warned this could be the start of firesales across other towers in the downtown area:
“I also believe you are going to see other buildings in the same boat.”
Don’t blame remote work for the collapse of Baltimore — blame Democrats and six decades of terrible policies that have transformed the once-thriving metro area into a ‘rat-infested hellhole.’
Salesforce CEO Warns San Francisco’s Collapsing Downtown “Never Going Back To The Way It Was”
WEDNESDAY, JUL 19, 2023 – 11:45 AM
San Francisco is a ‘hellhole’ that epitomizes everything wrong with how progressives govern cities. That’s because Democrats in City Hall believe that most criminals are victims — don’t arrest them — which allows for open-air drug markets, homelessness, and violent crime to thrive.
Due to failed social justice reform policies, the business conditions in downtown San Francisco have become challenging. Furthermore, the ongoing structural decline in demand for office space has thwarted any potential economic recovery in the area.
Marc Benioff, chief executive officer of Salesforce, the city’s largest employer and anchor tenant in its tallest skyscraper, understands the metro area is in trouble. According to AP News, Benioff offered this grim outlook for the metro area: The downtown area is “never going back to the way it was” in pre-Covid times when workers commuted to offices daily.
“We need to rebalance downtown,” Benioff said, adding Mayor London Breed needs to initiate a program to convert dormant office space into housing and hire additional law enforcement to restore law and order.
San Francisco’s demise is much more than just the remote or hybrid work narrative, and a record 30% of office space is vacant. Remember, without office workers, local shops can’t thrive.
But it’s also due to failed progressive policies that have resulted in a city descending into a state of chaos, similar to what’s being observed in Baltimore and Chicago.
The result of all of this has been a panic exit of residents. What’s worse, companies are also leaving in droves:
In the past several months, retailers, including Whole Foods, T-Mobile, and many other stores, have closed up shop after progressive city leadership fails to enforce law and order. San Francisco’s CRE meltdown is only accelerating, and the latest property foreclosures of major hotels and malls might be the start and could stymie any economic recovery. -ZH
And an increasing number of owners of major properties, from hotels to malls, are halting loan payments because their belief in an economic recovery in the near term has dropped to zero.
Even Elon Musk has signaled he might not keep Twitter’s headquarters in the downtown area because of the crime-ridden streets. He refuses to pay rent which has caused pain for Goldman Sachs, Financial Times noted.
A delinquency notice was issued Monday showing less-than-truckload carrier Yellow Corp. failed to make required contributions to health and welfare and pension funds for the month of June and that it is planning to withhold payments for July. The two periods total more than $50 million, according to a letter from Central States board of trustees.
Teamsters at Yellow operating companies YRC Freight and Holland that are covered under plans managed by Central States will be impacted.
The letter said health care claims incurred after Saturday would not be paid unless employees choose to “remit self-payments.” The company’s participation in the pension plan would be terminated effective Sunday if payment is not made, meaning no further accruals of pension benefits.
The letter showed Yellow was making the move “to avoid running out of cash.”
“If in the future Yellow fully pays the required contributions, pension benefits and health coverage will be reinstated retroactive to July 23, 2023,” the letter read.
A separate letter from John Murphy, co-chair of the Teamsters negotiating committee, to local unions invoked a more dire tone. In the notice he cited language from the collective bargaining agreement, outlining a potential work stoppage.
“In the event an Employer is delinquent in its health & welfare or pension payments in the manner required by the applicable Supplemental Agreement, the Local Union shall have the right to take whatever action it deems necessary until such delinquent payments are made.”
The document referenced the union’s requirement to give an employer 72 hours’ notice of a strike authorization. Murphy advised the local unions to send notice to YRC Freight and Holland demanding payment by Friday or risk a work stoppage on or after July 24.
Yellow previously asked the funds for contribution deferrals for the months of July and August, but the company never indicated whether or not those requests had been approved.
Roughly half of Yellow’s Teamster employees are covered by Central States.
Last week, Yellow was granted a covenant waiver from lenders. The company’s lending agreements require it to maintain a level of $200 million in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization for the prior 12 months. Yellow had generated just $89 million in the fourth and first quarters.
That filing also showed the company had in excess of $100 million in cash and equivalents as of June 30.
“Even if these payments are cured, it would significantly reduce the company’s cash balance,” Deutsche Bank analyst Amit Mehrotra told clients in an email late Monday evening. “This is perhaps the most tangible example of why we think it’s more likely than not YELL will go out of business, as we’ve said before.”
“We are aware of the decision of Central States Health Fund and Pension Funds to decline our request to defer contributions (with interest) for July and August,” a spokesperson with Yellow told FreightWaves. “We regret that the funds have rejected our request.
“Even today, we remain committed to negotiating a new contract with the IBT [International Brotherhood of Teamsters], which would provide everyone, especially our employees, with a clear path forward. We are not giving up. We will work with all parties involved to come to a speedy resolution.”
end
This is good: Jan 6 prisoner takes his obstruction charge to the Supreme ourt
(zerohedge)
Jan. 6 Prisoner Takes His Obstruction Charge To The Supreme Court
In a historic move, a Jan. 6 prisoner has taken his challenge of the infamous obstruction charge, levied against him and hundreds of other Jan. 6 prisoners and defendants, all the way to the Supreme Court.
On July 7, attorneys for Jan. 6 prisoner Edward Jacob (Jake) Lang filed a document with the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) challenging the government’s obstruction of Congress charge—one of the most common felony charges used against Jan. 6 defendants—which carries a 20-year prison sentence.
“We filed what’s called a writ of certiorari, or a request to the Supreme Court to hear an issue,” Norm Pattis, lead attorney for Mr. Lang, told The Epoch Times. Mr. Pattis explained that the legal team is asking the high court to review the details behind Mr. Lang’s alleged violation of Title 18 U.S. Code Section 1512(c)(2), one of the 11 charges against him, according to court documents (pdf).
According to the writ, obtained exclusively by The Epoch Times (pdf), “Mr. Lang filed a motion to dismiss the Section 1512 count prior to trial. The District Court granted his motion.”
However, “on a consolidated interlocutory appeal to the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit joined by two similarly situated codefendants, the Court, in a split decision, reversed the District Court. A motion for rehearing was denied.”
The “question presented for review” is “Whether the Court of Appeals erred in concluding that application of 18 U.S.C. Section 1512(c)(2), a statute crafted to prevent tampering with evidence in ‘official proceedings,’ can be used to prosecute acts of violence against police officers in the context of a public demonstration that turned into a riot, resulting in so ‘breathtaking’ an application of the statute as to run afoul of Van Buren v. United States, 141 S. Ct. 1648 (2021).”
The document warns the high court that “dozens of convictions” on this same obstruction charge are “headed to this Court,” all arising from Jan. 6, and “Resolution of the question is imperative to prevent the use of this statute to prosecute folks who protested in a good faith belief that their actions were necessary to prevent an election from being stolen, an event tantamount to an internal coup d’état.”
“Refusal to resolve this question,” the document predicts, “will chill others inclined to petition and assemble for the redress of grievances, for fear that those opposed to their views might prosecute them for possessing a ‘corrupt’ intent.”
‘Really Far Afield’
Obstruction under Section 1512(c) is among the 37 charges for which the federal government indicted the current GOP frontrunner for the 2024 election, Donald Trump (pdf). A favorable ruling by the Supreme Court could have a significant impact on the former president’s legal future as well.
This is not the first time the obstruction charge has been called into question.
Politico reported that, during a two-hour hearing on Nov. 19, 2021, U.S. District Court Judge Dabney Friedrich argued in the case of Jan. 6 prisoner Guy Reffitt—also charged with hindering communications through physical force, civil disorder, and bringing a firearm onto the grounds (pdf)—that the government’s effort to apply the obstruction charge appeared to run “really far afield” from what Congress intended.
On June 7, 2022, U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols granted Mr. Lang’s motion to dismiss (pdf) the obstruction charge.
It was the third time Mr. Nichols granted a Jan. 6 prisoner’s motion to dismiss. On March 8, 2022, he had granted the motion to dismiss of Jan. 6 prisoner Garret Miller.
“Upon review of the Defendant’s [Motion to Dismiss], and for the reasons discussed in the Court’s [opinions] in United States v. Miller, it is ordered that the Motion is granted,” Mr. Nichols wrote. “It is further ordered that Count Nine is dismissed without prejudice Superseding Indictment [citations omitted].”
Mr. Nichols then granted the motion to dismiss of Jan. 6 defendant Joseph Fischer on March 15, 2022.
Mr. Nichols believes that the statute “must be interpreted” in such a way that “requires that the defendant have taken some action with respect to a document, record, or other object in order to corruptly obstruct, impede or influence an official proceeding.”
In other words, if someone hasn’t been accused of taking such an action, they cannot be charged with this particular violation.
In all, federal prosecutors have charged more than 300 Jan. 6 defendants with obstructing congressional proceedings. The obstruction charge has been frequently used by the Justice Department during plea negotiations and as a means to coerce some Jan. 6 protesters into providing information to incriminate fellow protesters.
‘Reworking the Penal Code’
Mr. Pattis and fellow Lang attorney Steven Metcalf are asking the United States Supreme Court to review their client’s case and determine “whether the federal government is misusing the statute designed to prohibit or deter tampering with evidence or evidentiary proceedings” to inflict “extra heavy punishment on those involved in the January 6 events.”
Title 18 U.S.C. Section 1512 (pdf) provides in part:
(c) Whoever corruptly –
(1) alters, destroys, mutilates, or conceals a record, document, or other object, or attempts to do so, with the intent to impair the object’s integrity or availability for the use in an official proceeding; or (2) otherwise obstructs, influences or impedes any official proceeding, or attempts to do so, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 20 years, or both.
“The statute says if you obstruct or impede an official proceeding, by screwing around with records or documents, you’re guilty of a felony,” Mr. Pattis said.
He added, “Congress amended that to include a second section that says if you interfere with an official proceeding you are guilty as well. That statute has been used to punish Jan. 6 protesters who broke the law by trespassing or, in some cases, engaging in acts of violence against police officers, even when that act was in defense of themselves.”
Finally, the uSA cancels funding to our famous Wuhan lab
(zerohedge)
US Finally Cancels Funding To Wuhan Lab
TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 11:45 PM
The US government has finally pulled funding from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where the Obama administration offshored banned gain-of-function research, including projects to make bat covid more transmissible to humans, before a highly evolved, human-infecting bat coronavirus broke out in the same town and killed millions of people worldwide.
Then the US put the same guy involved in said research, Peter Daszak, in charge of a highly conflicted lab-leak denial.
The stated reason for the funding halt? The lab failed to provide documents concerning safety and security measures, according to a memo obtained by Bloomberg.
The Department of Health and Human Services on Monday notified the WIV of the suspension, and told the lab that it’s looking to cut it off permanently following a review which began last September that concluded that the Wuhan lab isn’t compliant with federal regulations.
This means that the WIV won’t receive further federal funding.
Penalizing the lab is the most drastic action the US has taken so far over its failure to share documentation on biosafety practices amid ongoing investigations into Covid-19’s origins. The institute has became become a flashpoint in discussions of how the pandemic, which has killed some 7 million people, started, with some, including FBI Director Christopher Wray, suspecting it could have originated at the facility. -Bloomberg
In 2014, the NIH awarded EcoHealth Alliance and its president Peter Daszak an grant for “understanding the risk of bat coronavirus emergence.” The WIV received a subaward of that grant.
The first $666,442 installment of EcoHealth’s $3.7 million NIH grant was paid in June 2014, with similar annual payments through May 2019 under the “Understanding The Risk Of Bat Coronavirus Emergence” project.
Notably, the WIV “had openly participated in gain-of-function research in partnership with U.S. universities and institutions” for years under the leadership of Dr. Shi ‘Batwoman’ Zhengli, according to the Washington Post‘s Josh Rogin.
EcoHealth also funneled funds from the US Agency for International Development to the WIV.
Earlier this year, HHS’s Office of Inspector General conducted an audit that determined that the NIH and EcoHealth Alliance didn’t effectively monitor awards and subawards, limiting their ability to understand the nature of research conducted and identify problem areas.
…
The lab won’t be able to conduct any business with US as an agent or representative of others, and its affiliation with any organization that does business with the federal government will also be carefully examined. -Bloomberg
That said, the Wuhan lab can contest the suspension and proposed disbarment – a relatively rare event. The decision to defund the lab was done independently of the US intelligence community, Bloomberg further reports.
In June, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a declassified report which identified several safety and security issues at the WIV that could have contributed to a lab leak.
end
THREADS (META OWNED)
Usage of THREADS, competitor to Twitter bombs as active users halved
(zerohedge)
Meta’s Threads ‘Bombs’ As Daily Active Users Halved
WEDNESDAY, JUL 19, 2023 – 09:05 AM
The hype surrounding “Threads,” the new social network launched by Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, has collapsed. Threads has unraveled so quickly that new data shows active users have been halved.
Threads launched in the US on July 5 and reached over 100 million sign-ups by that weekend. Shortly after, Zuckerberg wrote in a post, “Can’t believe it’s only been five days!”
New data from SimilarWeb shows the exodus has worsened. As of last Friday, daily active users on the app collapsed from 49 million to 23.6 million in a week. Usage in the US peaked on July 7 at about 21 minutes of engagement. By Friday, that number plunged to just six minutes.
SimilarWeb said the app lacks basic features that “offer a compelling reason to switch from Twitter or start a new social media habit.” Also, some users found Threads has been dominated by censorship.
Threads briefly captured a big chunk of Twitter’s market
Threads’ total daily minutes of use has collapsed
All the hype around Threads was driven mainly by corporate media, such as The New York Times, which penned a piece titled “Threads, Instagram’s ‘Twitter Killer,’ Has Arrived.” Federal-funded NPR News wrote, “Is Threads really a ‘Twitter killer’? Here’s what we know so far.” And here’s a CBS News article titled “Meta’s “Twitter killer” app Threads is here – and you can get a cheat code to download it.”
Notice the concerted effort by legacy media to bash Elon Musk’s free-speech Twitter?
Threads is unraveling, but it seems like a better venture for Zuckerberg than his disastrous VR bet
END.
SWAMP STORIES
Watch Live: IRS Whistleblowers – One, A Gay Democrat – Testify Against Bidens
WEDNESDAY, JUL 19, 2023 – 01:00 PM
Two IRS whistleblowers are scheduled to testify at the House Oversight Committee on Wednesday, where they’re expected to describe an “undeniable pattern of preferential treatment” for the Biden family, and “obstruction of the normal investigative process” when it comes to the multi-year investigation into Hunter Biden.
“From the thousands of financial records we’ve obtained, we know the Biden family set up over a 20 shell companies, engaged in intentionally complicated financial transactions with foreign adversaries, and made a concerted effort to hide the payments and avoid scrutiny,” said Committee Chairman James Comer last month.
This is far from a partisan witch hunt – as one of the whistleblowers, who previously testified before the House Ways & Means Committee last month, is a 13-year special agent with the IRS’ Criminal Investigation Division, and is a “gay Democrat married to a man,” according to his prepared testimony obtained by Fox News.
The anonymous whistleblower will also say that Hunter Biden “should have been charged with a tax felony, and not only the tax misdemeanor charge,” and that communications and text messages reviewed by investigators “may be a contradiction to what President Biden was saying about not being involved in Hunter’s oversea business dealings.”
That whistleblower is also expected to testify on several instances in which prosecutors “did not follow the ordinary process, slow-walked the investigation, and put in place unnecessary approvals and roadblocks from effectively and efficiently investigating the case,” including prosecutors blocking questioning and interviewing of Hunter Biden’s adult children.
The whistleblower is also expected to ask Congress and the Biden Administration to “consider a special counsel” for the Hunter Biden investigation and “all the related cases and spin-off investigations that have come forward from this investigation.” -Fox News
The other whistleblower, Gary Shapley, testified in May that he witnessed “examples of preferential treatment and politics improperly infecting decisions and protocols that would normally be followed by career law enforcement professionals in similar circumstances if the subject were not politically connected.”
The whistleblowers are also alleging that federal prosecutors blocked lines of questioning related to President Biden and that the US attorney in charge of the probe, David Weiss, did not have full authority to bring charges.
“Related cases that I believe are subject to the same problems and difficulties we had,” the anonymous whistleblower is expected to testify, and will add that Congress should consider “establishing an official channel for Federal investigators to pull the emergency cord and raise the issue of the appointment of a special counsel for consideration by your senior officials.”
end
USA is now a failed state!
Michigan Charges 16 Elderly ‘Fake Electors’ With Felonies
WEDNESDAY, JUL 19, 2023 – 12:05 AM
The state of Michigan has charged 16 Trump supporters with an average age of 69 in a so-called ‘fake electors’ scheme following the 2020 US presidential election.
The defendants allegedly met on Dec 14, 2020 in order to sign several official documents certifying that they were the “duly elected and qualified electors for President and Vice President of the United States of America for the State of Michigan,” per Michigan officials.
Those false documents were then “transmitted to the United States Senate and National Archives in a coordinated effort to award the state’s electoral votes to the candidate of their choosing, in place of the candidates actually elected by the people of Michigan,” according to a statement from officials.
In total, Trump allies pushed to organize slates of fake electors in seven swing states, whose votes would supplant the original electors’, before members of Congress and then-VP Mike Pence would certify their slates.
The defendants are each charged with;
One count of Conspiracy to Commit Forgery, a 14-year felony,
Two counts of Forgery, a 14-year felony,
One count of Conspiracy to Commit Uttering and Publishing, a 14-year felony,
One count of Uttering and Publishing, a 14-year felony,
One count of Conspiracy to Commit Election Law Forgery, a 5-year felony, and,
Two counts of Election Law Forgery, a 5-year felony.
Among those charged was Meshawn Maddock, a Trump ally and former co-chair of the Michigan Republican Party.
Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel says she’s “prosecuted numerous cases of election law violations throughout my tenure, and it would be malfeasance of the greatest magnitude if my department failed to act here in the face of overwhelming evidence of an organized effort to circumvent the lawfully cast ballots of millions of Michigan voters in a presidential election.”
“The evidence will demonstrate there was no legal authority for the false electors to purport to act as ‘duly elected presidential electors’ and execute the false electoral documents,” her statement continues. “Every serious challenge to the election had been denied, dismissed, or otherwise rejected by the time the false electors convened. There was no legitimate legal avenue or plausible use of such a document or an alternative slate of electors. There was only the desperate effort of these defendants, who we have charged with deliberately attempting to interfere with and overturn our free and fair election process, and along with it, the will of millions of Michigan voters. That the effort failed and democracy prevailed does not erase the crimes of those who enacted the false electors plot.“
end
Watch: Rand Paul Is Engaged In An All-Out-War Against Fauci
Senator Rand Paul is determined to take down Anthony Fauci, with his latest salvo against the former NIH head coming in the form of confirming that Fauci has a government funded security detail including the use of limousines, despite the fact that he is supposedly retired with vast personal wealth.
Appearing on Jesse Watters’ show Monday, Paul explained how shady Fauci’s taxpayer reimbursed perks are.
“HHS (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services) actually came back to us and said they haven’t been paying for it since January. But then we discovered that Fox did a Freedom of Information Act and a judge forced them to say that, well, while HHS wasn’t directly funding it, the U.S. Marshals were funding it,” Paul noted.
Paul continued, “We asked the government, ‘are you funding his limo, and driver, and security detail,’ and they say, ‘Oh, we’re not doing it, but oh, somebody else is doing it, and we’re reimbursing them?’”
“It’s a terrible example of the government lying to its representatives and to the people. But also, why is a retired guy, the only retired official I know of that gets this kind of treatment is a former president,” Paul continued, urging “I have no idea why this bureaucrat still has a limo driver security detail.”
“He’s a rich man. His wealth increased by 30% during the pandemic,” Paul pointed out, also pondering whether Fauci has access to pro bono legal representation in retirement, asserting that he will need it soon.
Paul has vowed to never stop pushing to expose the reality of COVID’s origin and funding.
END
THE KING REPORT
The King Report July19, 2023 Issue 7035
Independent View of the News
US June Retail Sales 0.2% m/m, 0.5% expected prior revised to 0.5% from 0.3%; ex-Autos 0.2%, 0.3% expected, prior revised to 0.3% from 0.1%; ex-autos & gas 0.3% as expected, prior to 0.5% from 0.4%
US June Industrial production -0.5% m/m, 0.0% expected, prior revised to -0.2% from 0.1%; Manufacturing Production -0.3%, 0.0% expected, prior revised to =0.2% from 0.1%; Capacity utilization 78.9%, 79.5% expected, prior revised to 79.4% from 79.6%
June NAHB Housing Market Index 56 as expected
US Homebuilder Sentiment Hits 13-Month High amid Tight SupplyLow existing inventory keeps demand for new homes strongThe National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo gauge rose five points to 55… The index, which has increased for six consecutive months, exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-homebuilder-sentiment-increases-almost-140000283.html
Bank of America, Bank of NY, PNC, and Morgan Stanley topped Q2 EPS estimates.
Wall Street Banks Show How Good It Is to Be Kings Bigger may not necessarily be better, but it sure doesn’t hurt Today, Bank of America Corp. joined JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. in beating expectations for net interest income and raising full-year guidance. They’re lending to mostly well-off households who can afford to pay them back. The bad news (for stockholders anyway) is thatbanks are having to share more of that money with their depositors, which may shrink margins… https://t.co/6uHtp2G3EY
NY Fed: Business Leaders Survey – A monthly survey of service firms in New York State, northern New Jersey and southwestern Connecticut, conducted by the New York Fed. The business climate index rose eight points, but remained negative at -28.1, suggesting the business climate remains worse than normal. Employment continued to increase, and wage growth moderated somewhat. The pace of price increases was little changed. Looking ahead, firms became more optimistic that conditions will improve over the next six months… The index for future business activity rose eight points to 22.3, its highest level in more than a year, pointing to growing optimism about the six-month outlook. The index for the future business climate remained negative at -7.8. Employment is expected to grow modestly in the months ahead, and capital spending plans picked up… https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/Survey/business_leaders/2023/2023_07blsreport.pdf
ESUs traded sideways, in negative territory except for two brief periods, from the Nikkei opening until the usual suspects poured into stuff on the NYSE open. ESUs zoomed from 4545.25 at 9:31 ET to 4578.50 at 11:47 ET. After a 9-handle retreat, ESUs soared again, hitting 4590.00 at 13:30 ET.
Tuesday was the last trading day for June VIX options. Today is settlement for those options. The usual suspects manipulated ESUs to squeeze expiring VIX options. How corrupt and inept is the SEC?
After a modest retreat, the final-hour manipulation began on schedule. ESUs hit 4594.50 at 15:50 ET. ESUs retreated into the close.
Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied during US trading on season upward biases and blatant manipulation Fangs soared on pattern buying ahead of earnings
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds struggled to a modest gain Gold and energy commodities rallied sharply
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Are stocks bubbling up again?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4550.18 Previous session High/Low: 4562.30; 4514.59
U.S. to announce another $1.3 billion in military aid for Ukraine, including air defense systems, exploding drones and ammunition – Reuters @elonmusk: Would be nice for the public to have some clue how the money is spent!
GOP @RepClayHiggins: The Dept. of Defense has failed 5 audits and can’t account for 61% of their assets... https://t.co/7QXOPSNmRg
@DavidSacks: Schmidt Confirms Ukrainian Counteroffensive Faces “Insurmountable Task”Former Google CEO @ericschmidt, who is now a player in the MIC and has spent a lot of time with the Ukrainian military, confirms a number of important points in this interview with @FareedZakaria: (1) The Russians have a major artillery advantage and they’re not going to run out. He says the Russians are using 60,000 shells/day compared to 5,000 shells/day for the entire Western production. This is even higher than the 10:1 ratios for balance of artillery that I’ve seen in other contexts. (2) Punching through Russian lines in order to march to the Sea of Azov and sever the land bridge to Crimea (the strategy of the Ukrainian counteroffensive) is “an insurmountable task.” There are too many obstacles, and even if a column could get through, it would immediately be bombarded with artillery from all sides. (3) The war will go on for years because neither side has sufficient advantage. The only potential game-changer that he sees is if Ukraine can mass produce drones. But he says the factories have to be built in Ukraine “for various reasons.” I don’t know what those reasons are, but this seems unrealistic to me since the Russians can disrupt production by bombing the factories. Also, I don’t see why, given the artillery advantage, Russia lacks sufficient advantage to go on offense once the Ukrainian counteroffensive culminates; in fact, this is already happening in the north. If a stalemate is likely to be the best case scenario, why aren’t we talking peace? https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1680850601779900416/video/1
No Testing, No Inspections: Contaminated Eyedrops Blinded and Killed Americans How a drugstore staple, made in an Indian factory and tainted with an antibiotic-resistant superbug, slipped past the FDA… Over-the-counter eye drops containing a deadly superbug slipped past the FDA and onto shelves, revealing how little oversight there is for the kinds of medicine Americans take every day… https://t.co/LxRgrs5TxP
The corruption in the US government is staggering and pernicious at all levels.
Wuhan Lab Leak “So Friggin’ Likely” – New Slack Messages Reveal Massive Media Deception by Fauci & ‘Scientists’ – Even credentialed scientists began to be disciplined by sites like Facebook, which took direction from government health authorities and prohibited statements about the virus being “man-made or manufactured.”…Public and Racket last week obtained a full complement of the “Proximal Origins” communications examined by the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, revealing a story far worse than previously believed. While today’s Public story details the unprecedented scientific cover-up, the letters and chats examined here at Racket show how health officials and scientists constructed perhaps the most impactful media deception of modern times, exceeding even the WMD fiasco both in scale and brazen intentionality… https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/wuhan-lab-leak-so-friggin-likely-new-slack-messages-reveal-massive-media-deception-fauci
Well-known Hollywood mogul is the ‘Trojan horse’ for China inside the Biden campaign: Enes KanterFreedom – Former Disney and DreamWorks Animation chief Jeffrey Katzenberg is one of the Democrats Party’s most prolific fundraisers and his wife donated more than $1.4 million to Biden’s 2020 campaign and super PAC…Katzenberg has an extensive history with China and has discussed visiting the country every month for years while running DreamWorks Animation. During his time at the company, DreamWorks announced a multi-billion-dollar deal with the Chinese government to build a production studio in Shanghai…“So he is essentially the Biden extension into China. And this is a guy who said he used to travel to China once every month for the last two and a half years. I’m just so confused why our current administration right now wants to be in bed with China so bad[ly].”… https://www.foxnews.com/media/well-known-hollywood-mogul-trojan-horse-china-inside-biden-campaign-enes-kanter-freedom
Today – Traders want to be long for the usual expiry manipulation, the manipulation for the VIX Fix at 14:15 ET to settle expiring June options plus Netflix and Tesla’s earnings that are due after the close. So, barring unexpected and profoundly negative news, traders will buy dips and be very comfortable playing the long side. The Fed has really screwed up, again! ESUs are -2.50 at 20:20 ET.
Expected economic data: June Housing Starts 1.48m, Permits 1.5m
Expected earnings: BBKR .33, USB 1.10, HAL .75, GS 3.94, NFLX 2.85, IBM 2.00, DFS 3.71, UAL 4.00, TSLA .81, ZION 1.09
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4303; 100-day MA: 4171; 150-day MA: 4107; 200-day MA: 4039 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,761; 100-day MA: 33,419; 150-day MA: 33,481; 200-day MA: 33,138 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is negative, MACD is positive – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4256.94 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4450.84 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4537.46 triggers a sell signal
Troubling video of Biden mumbling and almost dosing off at presser with Israeli President Herzog: https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1681358659622780939 Fox’s @HARRISFAULKNER: Someone please check on the President. Seriously. @themarketswork: Israeli President Herzog starting to look at Biden’s handlers at 0:05 mark…
The NY Post Editorial Board: Biden’s new student loan forgiveness plan is treating the Supreme Court with contempt – In complete defiance of the Supreme Court, and ignoring the rules that govern the separation of powers, President Biden has decided by dictatorial fiat to nevertheless “forgive” hundreds of billions in student loans. This is contempt of Congress, of the courts, of our entire system of government, yet the liberal media can’t be bothered to care. Because spending $475 billion on a project Democrats believe in, and will help buy them votes, is what matters most. In fact, the press had decided the Supreme Court is not “legitimate” and therefore its decisions don’t matter. Don’t you know judicial rulings only apply to Republicans?… Congress is in charge of spending. The courts decide what moves are constitutional. One branch of government is not allowed to run roughshod over the others, and Biden and his media handmaidens know that… https://nypost.com/2023/07/17/bidens-student-loan-forgiveness-plan-is-treating-the-supreme-court-with-contempt/
The US has been in a Constitutional Crisis for several years. Yet few people care!
FBI agent who investigated Hunter Biden confirms IRS whistleblower’s allegations in ‘sickeningtestimony’ revealing ‘the lengths to which the DOJ is willing to go to cover up for the Bidens’, GOP claimshttps://t.co/8fc6Gp0qF8
Trump says DOJ told him he is a target in Jan. 6 probe, must report to grand jury “Deranged Jack Smith, the prosecutor with Joe Biden’s DOJ, sent a letter (again, it was Sunday night!) stating that I am a TARGET of the January 6th Grand Jury investigation, and giving me a very short 4 days to report to the Grand Jury, which almost always means an Arrest and indictment,” Trump wrote… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/trump-says-doj-told-him-he-target-jan-6-probe-must-report-grand
@SpeakerMcCarthy: President Trump just increased his lead in the polls. So what does the Biden Administration do next? Weaponize government to go after President Biden’s number one opponent. This is not equal justice. It’s wrong, and the American public is tired of it. https://twitter.com/SpeakerMcCarthy/status/1681329267768999936
Ex-US Attorney @tolmanbrett: Jack Smith sending President Trump a target letter and then indicating he has to appear in front of the Grand Jury makes no sense. Rarely do you put a target in front of the GJ. They will plead the 5th and you run the risk of compromising your case given Due Process rights.
The juxtaposition of how Biden’s DoJ and FBI treat Trump versus how they treat Joe and Hunter Biden is a priori proof that the rule of law in the US is kaput.
@ClayTravis: Democrats are charging Trump with multiple felonies because they want him to be the Republican nominee. They realize the charges strengthen him in the Republican primary, but they believe the charges weaken him in the general election. This is 100% politics.
But many Cult of Trump members aver that Trump is being prosecuted to keep him off the ballot.
Iowans disapprove of Trump jab at Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds: Poll Trump lashed out at Reynolds last week after a New York Times report suggested she is warming up to DeSantis, the 77-year-old’s chief rival in the 2024 GOP race. “I opened up the Governor position for Kim Reynolds, & when she fell behind, I ENDORSED her, did big Rallies, & she won. Now, she wants to remain ‘NEUTRAL.’ I don’t invite her to events! DeSanctus down 45 points!” Trump wrote on Truth Social last week, using his preferred spelling of DeSantis’ name… https://trib.al/6dH7Xft
Ilhan Omar roasted for saying Earth broke heat record last set in 117,977 BC: ‘Making sh– up’https://trib.al/TYXC6ZO
@kylenabecker: Dear media: The earth warms and cools in a cyclical manner and mankind can do nothing to stop it. Nature is going to do what it’s going to do and giving the government $1.6 quadrillion to try to control the climate is the very definition of lunacy. It is the ultimate in futility. Temperatures of the last 10,000 years – Ice core data from Crete site in central Greenland (The Science) https://t.co/FBW5w2T34D
Black, Hispanic NYers who failed teacher’s test strike $1.8B in NYC settlement The city stopped fighting a nearly three-decade federal discrimination lawsuit that found a certification exam was biased… The case is expected to generate hundreds of other future million-dollar awards… One Brooklyn principal said the city was “crazy” to settle the case. “The standards are the standards,” he said. “It shouldn’t be based on what would be easy for blacks or whites. To hire people who are not qualified and change the requirements because a certain group didn‘t pass the test is bulls–t.”… https://nypost.com/2023/07/15/nyc-bias-suit-black-hispanic-teachers-and-ex-teachers-rich/
KPIX CBS’s@bett_yu: The Walgreens at 16th/Geary in San Francisco has chained up the freezer section. Workers said normally shoplifters clean out all the pizza and ice cream every night. They’re usually hit 20x a day. The whole store is virtually locked up. (Your ancestors’ USA doesn’t exist!) https://twitter.com/bett_yu/status/1681124070077906945
Ex-IL Governor @realBlagojevich: Obama tweeted today about his opposition to books being censored. Since he opposes censorship, I invite him to join me in my request to uncensor his FBI interview from my case. It’s still being covered up. What are they hiding?
Renowned radio host, filmmaker, book author and archeological dig expert Steve Quayle has been warning of very hard times coming for America. The CV19 bioweapon/vax continues to disable and kill. The U.S. dollar tanks under massive debt while the BRICS ready a new global currency. The skies are poisoned by geoengineering every day, but all these pale compared to the coming nuclear war that the Deep State wants and needs. Quayle says, “Obama has just reappeared on the world scene again. Remember, he said, ‘America is the greatest nation in the world, and we intend to change all of that.’ Do you like what you see in the cities? Why do they need World War III? They need to scorch and burn all remembrance of all their dirty deeds. . . . We have actively declared war on Russia. In essence, we are at war with Russia right now. We are moving nuclear capable F-16s, B-2 bombers and all the things in America’s bag of tricks is being positioned in the Eastern block nations such as Poland. They have the idea we are going to fight a ground war against Russia and defeat them. President Putin said recently that we know you have more tanks, ammo and etc., but we have our nuclear weapons. So, you cannot win a sonic war against a hypersonic opponent. I am talking about the entire Russian ability . . . they have full spectrum dominance. . . . The United States is so far behind. . . . They need nuclear war because they need to cover up the biggest crimes in history.”
The United States may find itself in financial hardship soon as well. The BRICS are coming out with a new currency around August 22. Quayle says his sources are telling him the dollar could take a huge hit in the not-so-distant future. Quayle says, “The U.S. dollar and the gazillions of dollars out there in the derivatives market, there is so much it is ludicrous to try to encapsulate it, but it can never be paid back. So, the only way the United States has to handle this is debt repudiation. They need a force majeure. A force majeure simply means all denominated assets, whether it’s cash in your pocket, money in the bank, stocks, bonds, mutual funds, retirement and bla, bla, bla. The day force majeure on the U.S. dollar is declared, all that goes to nil, zero, zilch. The Central Bank Digital Currency, CBDC, the infrastructure is not in place. . . . It’s not set up. Any surviving Americans are not going to touch this. They will say look at what you just did to our lives and fortunes.”
Quayle says, “The only way you are going to keep your freedoms is you are going to have to fight for it. You cannot comply to the lies. If you, do you die. You will be forced to comply or die. That’s the mark of the beast. It’s coming right out of the book of Revelation. . . . God said a third of the life on the planet is going to die. We are seeing manifestations in all directions, and least not forget the weather war and the heat dome over the Southwest. . . . You have flooding in some places and absolute devastation and drought in another.”
Quayle points out the only way to make it through the very hard times coming is to have a personal relationship with our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ.
There is much more in the 59-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter as he talks to radio host, filmmaker and top selling author Steve Quayle as he talks about hard times coming for America and the entire world for 7.18.23.
Courageous Discourse™ with Dr. Peter McCullough & John Leake
harveyorganblog.com 
