GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $23.45 TO $1976.60

SILVER PRICE CLOSED: UP $0.25   AT $25.05

Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM

Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1978.35

Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 25.06

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Bitcoin morning price:, $29978 DOWN 268  Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $29892 DOWN 354 dollars

Platinum price closing  $987.15 UP  $7.25

Palladium price;     $1319.00

 UP $33.65

END

Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,605.80 UP 24.92 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)

BRITISH GOLD: 1517.86 UP 21.52 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)

EURO GOLD: 1761.85 UP 31.20 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

 EXCHANGE: COMEXCONTRACT: JULY 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,952.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/17/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 07/19/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED 

   ____________________________________________________________________________________________ 

190 H BMO CAPITAL 12363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 2
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 8
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 5
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 1
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 1  

JPMorgan stopped 0/20 contracts.

FOR JULY:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2023. CONTRACT:  15 NOTICES FOR 1500 OZ  or  0.04665 TONNES

total notices so far: 2529 contracts for 252,900 oz (7.8662 tonnes)

FOR  JULY:

SILVER NOTICES: 12 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 60,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 4053 for 20,265,000 oz

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END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $23.45

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES 

Silver//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER  UP $0.25  AT  THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 455.875 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 3253 CONTRACTS TO 145,190 AND CLOSER TO THE  RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR   $0.19 LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A GOOD SIZED 532 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH .  CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: 532 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES. 

WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.19). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS  GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4321 CONTRACTS.   WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF  EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// (  THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 1.25 MILLION OZ.).  WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG WITH MANIPULATION NOW MID MONTH AND BEYOND, DUE TO (TAS) MANIPULATION. 

WE  MUST HAVE HAD: 

A GIGANTIC  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 1068 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 16.110 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  20,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP+ 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW STANDING: 21.130 MILLION OZ + 1.20 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  22.140 MILLION OZ/  // HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI)  GOOD NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (532 CONTRACTS)/ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL  + 728 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY: 

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 10 days, total 12,239 contracts:   OR 61.195 MILLION OZ  (1223 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  61.195 MILLION OZ 

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120 

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE 

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ 

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ 

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE 

APRIL  118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 61.195 MILLION OZ (LARGER THAN LAST MONTH)

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE  SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3253  CONTRACTS WITH OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF  $0.19 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1068  ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF  16.110 MILLION  OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 20,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK (PRIOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK 1.25 MILLION OZ): TOTAL NOW STANDING 1,25 MILLION OZ + 21.130 MILLION OZ (NORMAL STANDING) = 22.40 MILLION OZ./////  .. WE HAVE A HUGE  SIZED GAIN OF 4321 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY:  A GOOD  532//SOME FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED  DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION.  THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TODAY (532) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE.

WE HAD 12  NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  60,000  OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY STRONG  SIZED 11,851  CONTRACTS  TO 486,719 AND FURTHER FROM  THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY:  ADDED: 968  CONTRACTS

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI ( 11,851 CONTRACTS)  WITH OUR $6.60 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY. AT 5.1975 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0342 TONNE QUEUE JUMP: NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY: 7.9409 TONNES//  + /A FAIR (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 1974 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $6.60 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS  OF 9954  OI CONTRACTS (30.96 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1897 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 485,751

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9954 CONTRACTS  WITH 11,851 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR 1897 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9954 CONTRACTS OR 30.96 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 1974 CONTRACTS)

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1897 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE  STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (11,851) //TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9954 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG  ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 5.1975 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.10342TONNE QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL 7.129 TONNES   ///// /3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION//4)  STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6:  FAIR T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 1974 CONTRACTS 

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

JULY

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED:  21,884 CONTRACTS OR 2,188,400 OZ OR 68,07 TONNES IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2188 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  68.07 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  68.07/3550 x 100% TONNES  1.69% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023 

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN).. 

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE// 

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH:  409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL// 

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL 

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES 

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  68.07 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD 

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE  SIZED GAIN OF 3253  CONTRACTS OI TO  145,190 AND CLOSER TO  OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  5 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 1068  CONTRACTS 

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT  3490  and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1068  CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  COMEX OI GAIN OF 3253 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1068  OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF  4321 CONTRACTS 

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTAL 21.605 MILLION OZ 

OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.19 LOSS IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

 2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

 

TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.81 PTS OR 0.77%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 396.06 PTS OR 2.05%        /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 112.43 PTS OR .32% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.020 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1742  /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN  TO 7.1790 /Oil DOWN TO 74,42 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT  UP AT 78,869 / Stocks in Europe OPENED  MOSTLY RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3  CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL  BY A HUGE SIZED 11,851 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 486,719 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.60 ON MONDAY.  I CAN ASSURE YOU THAT MANY T.A.S. CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED TO HELP THE CROOKS LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 1898  EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  AUGUST 1897 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1897 CONTRACTS 

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 9954  CONTRACTS IN THAT 1897 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 11,851 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND  THIS STRONG SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.60//MONDAY COMEX.   AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS A SMALL 1974 CONTRACTS.  THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS INITIATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GOLD/SILVER MARKET AS RAIDS WILL SURELY BE UPON US.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   JULY  (7.9409) (NON  ACTIVE MONTH)

TONNES),

 HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL 

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 7.9409 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $6.60) //// AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME  SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 9954 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT  THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION. THE MASSIVE TAS ISSUED MONDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.

WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 33.972 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY. (5.11974 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S  QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0342 TONNES//TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY GOLD: 7.9409 TONNES    //  ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $6.60. 

WE HAD  + ADDED 968      CONTRACTS  TO THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT 

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 9954  CONTRACTS OR 995400  OZ OR 30;96 TONNES.

Estimated gold volume today:// 303,051  strong

final gold volumes/yesterday   204,873  FAIR

//JULY 18/ FOR THE JULY  2023 CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	660.720 OZ Brinks           .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	nil OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today	15  notice(s) 1500 OZ 0.04665 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	30  contracts    3000 oz 0.003313 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	2529 notices 252,900  OZ 7.8662 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

0 dealer deposit:

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

total customer deposits: 0 oz

we had 1 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks:  660.720 oz

total withdrawals:  660.720 oz

Adjustments; 0//

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.

For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 49  contracts having LOST 9 contracts. We had 20 contracts served on Monday.  Thus we gained 11 contracts or an additional 1100 oz of gold will stand at the comex.

AUGUST  LOST 21,166 contracts DOWN to 219.180 contracts 

SEPT lost 75 contracts to stand at 482

We had 12 contracts filed for today representing  1200  oz  

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and  0  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to  15   contract(s) of which 0   notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0  notice(s) was (were) stopped   received by J.P.Morgan//customer account   and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2023. contract month, 

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2529 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  JULY (49  CONTRACT)  minus the number of notices served upon today  15 x 100 oz per contract equals 255,3 OZ  OR 7.9409 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of July. 

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the  JULY contract month:  No of notices filed so far (2529) x 100 oz +  (49) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (15)  x 100 oz) which equals  255,300 oz standing OR 7.9409 TONNES 

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 7.9409 TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR A NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.  

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold:  1,879,274.546  OZ   58,45 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED:  22,275,154.927 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD:  11,832,906.869   (368.05  tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,442,248.063 O Z  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,953,632 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 309.599 tonnes//

END

SILVER/COMEX

JULY 18

//2023// THE JULY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	921,219.426 oz Delaware CNT Manfra HSBC Loomis .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	1,201657.474 oz Brinks Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)	12  CONTRACT(S)    (60,000  OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	177 contracts  (885,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	4053 Contracts  (20,265,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposits 

total dealer deposit: 0   oz

total dealer deposits: 0

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 2 deposits customer account:

i) Into Brinks 601,815.674  oz

ii) Out of Loomis:  599,841.800 oz

total customer deposits: 1,201,657.474 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139.362  million oz/276.926 million =50.18% of comex .//

Comex withdrawals 5

i) Out of Delaware  2972.934 oz

ii) Out of CNT 38,751.282 oz

iii) Out of Manfra: 413,025.900 oz

iv) OUt of HSBC:  300,777.945 oz

v) Out of Loomis:  165,601.400 oz

total: 921,219.4261 oz

adjustments: 0

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 34.781 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 276,938 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2023 OI: 189   CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 11  CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 15 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED  4 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 20,000 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, 

AUGUST GAINED 25 CONTRACTS TO STAND  AT 721

SEPT HAS A GAIN  OF 2521 CONTRACTS UP TO 124.363

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 12 for 60,000  oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 61,297  good /

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 47,750  poor

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4053 x  5,000 oz = 20,265,000 oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(xxx) and the number of notices served upon today 12 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JULY/2023 contract month:  4053 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (189) – number of notices served upon today (12 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 21.150 million oz  + 1.25 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK /NEW TOTAL: 22.40 MILLION OZ..

the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $23.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES

JULY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES

JULY 14/WITH GOLD UP $0.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES

JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES

JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $24.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.95 TONNES

JULY 11/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.0 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.26 TONNES

JULY 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.26 TONNES.

JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES.

JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES

JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.90 TONNES

JULY 3/WITH GOLD UP $1.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES//

JUNE 30/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES

JUNE 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.81 TONNES

JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES

JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES

JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.10 TONNES

JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WITHDRAWALS OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES

JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 934.03 TONNES

JUNE 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES

JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $0.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES

JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES

JUNE 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44 TONNES

JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44

GLD INVENTORY: 912.93 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

JULY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN XX CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/

JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.856 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/

JULY 14/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.21 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/

JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/

JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.881 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/

JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .020 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.822 MILLION OZ/

JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.802 MILLION OZ

JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ

JULY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.667 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ//

JULY5/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//

JULY 3/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.377 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT468.141 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.763 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.764 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 27/WILVER SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 734,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ

JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 469.793 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A NET DEPOSIT OF 6.61 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OVER THESE PAST TWO DAYS//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.793 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.784 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 89 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ

JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.377 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.642 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 14/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 735,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.019 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.515 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.754 MILLION OZ//

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ//

CLOSING INVENTORY 455.875 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/peter-schiff-dollar-decline-means-lower-inflation-transitory

Peter Schiff: Dollar Decline Means Lower Inflation Is Transitory

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 12:05 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

With the June CPI report coming in even cooler than expected, the mainstream perspective seems to be that the Federal Reserve is winning the inflation fight. But in his podcast, Peter Schiff explains why the dollar is telling a different story.

The dollar index fell below 100 last week for the first time and hit its lowest level since April 2022 last Thursday. Through last week, the DXY fell by 2.3%. Peter said what is happening is somewhat counterintuitive.

It’s ironic that the dollar losing less purchasing power than anticipated means that the dollar loses its purchasing power on international markets. You would think it’d be the opposite.”

The dollar started rallying in January 2021 and ran through September 2022. The rally strengthened the dollar by nearly 30%. Since that peak, the dollar is down by about 13%.

It’s still up a lot, but not nearly as much as it was.”

Peter said the significance of this is that the big drop in the CPI has primarily been driven by the strength of the dollar.

That acted as a tightening all by itself. Yes, you had the Fed raising rates. You had the Fed shrinking its balance sheet. But you also had the dollar going up. That helped the Fed. … Monetary conditions tighten when the dollar goes up. That helped bring down prices.”

You can see the impact clearly on commodity prices. When the dollar gets stronger, it raises commodity prices for other countries. The rising prices lead to a drop in demand.

That benefits the US because we have dollars. We create dollars. So, we don’t see a price increase in commodities when the dollar goes up. We actually get a benefit because more of our international competitors who are bidding for those same resources get priced out. Their demand goes down because they’re looking at these higher prices. And so then we get the benefit of lower prices. So, the dollar, the foreign exchange market was doing a lot of the Fed’s work. It was tightening without the Fed having to hike rates more.

The Fed was able to manufacture a lot of dollar strength with rhetoric. All of the tough, hawkish talk supported the dollar.

In fact, the dollar started to rally before the Fed started hiking. It was because the Fed started to indicate that it was going to hike. The foreign currency markets got in front of that and started to discount those rate hikes and that tighter policy and the dollar started going up.”

Now the dollar is falling because the forward-looking currency markets know the Fed is either finished hiking or at least close enough to the peak that the next significant move the markets anticipate is easing.

The fact that the dollar is already falling — that counts as an ease. So, even if the Fed continues to hike, if the dollar keeps falling, that effect will be larger than the rate hikes. So, even though the Fed would be hiking rates, the weakness in the dollar will actually be negating those hikes and will have the effect of a cut because it will be a loosening of monetary conditions.”

A loosening of monetary conditions means a revival of price inflation. That’s why it’s likely that the current cooling in CPI is likely transitory.

end

2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO

A CATASTROPHIC DEBT IMPLOSION CAN BE INCREDIBLY QUICK

Egon von Greyerz
July 17, 2023

Will the world experience a catastrophic debt implosion?

Just like the Titanic Submersible that recently imploded, the global debt bubble can implode “within just a fraction of a millisecond”. More later in the article.

Are we now in the third circle in Dante’s Inferno?

Dante describes the 9 circles of hell. The 3^rd circle is Gluttony which is fitting for a self indulgent Western world with excessive consumption of both material and financial resources.

Each circle represents a gradual increase in evil, culminating at the centre of the earth where Satan is held in bondage. The sinners of each circle are punished for eternity in a fashion fitting their crimes.

Financial markets have also been dominated by gluttony for an extended period. This has led to the biggest asset bubble in history. 

But in spite of unprecedented risks in investment markets, for the few investors making the right choice, now is a period of great opportunity not just to preserve wealth but also to enhance it. More later.

END OF THE CURRENT WESTERN EMPIRE

But here we are in the 21^st century with the current Western Empire in the final stages of a secular decline which looks very similar to the fall of the Western Roman Empire in the 5^th century. Wars, debts, deficits, collapsing currencies,  decadence, corruption and socialism – Plus ça change (the more things change, the more they stay the same. 

Whether this cycle is the end of a 100, 300 or 2000 year era, only future historians will know the answer to.

WAR DRUMS AND NATO

To diffuse the real reasons for the collapse of the Western economy and the Financial System, there is nothing like starting a war. Leaders love to play real war games although most of them have never been near the front line. A war creates fear in the people and permits the leaders to govern the country irresponsibly, both in relation to the economy and by controlling the people. 

So all the Western leaders got together for the NATO meeting in Vilnius, Lithuania last week to listen to Zelensky’s rantings about more money and more weapons in a war that Ukraine is unlikely to ever win. But since this is a proxy war for the real battle between the US and Russia, the West is grudgingly giving in to many of Zelensky’s demands, thus escalating the war to levels which could have catastrophic consequences for the world. 

This war could at best lead to 100s of thousands of additional deaths. The Ukrainian people don’t want war, probably more than 10 million of them have left the country and won’t return. Neither the Russian, American or European people want war, only their leaders. When it comes to wars, leaders have ultimate power and also access to money. Although no country has funds available for this war, they all borrow and print to the detriment of the countries and their people. 

At best this war will be limited but go on for years at a massive cost of lives and resources.  At worst we could have a global and nuclear war with disastrous repercussions. 

Western leaders would serve their people much better if they instead sent peace makers and focused on their economies which are on the verge of a major implosion. 

Coming back to debt, this is what will finally destroy the West and likely lead to decades of misery. 

US DEBT UP BY SAME AMOUNT IN LAST 5 YEARS AS THE FIRST 221 YEARS

The latest financial crisis started in September 2019 when the US banking system came under serious pressure and the Fed injected major liquidity into the near bankrupt system. Since that time, total US debt has increased by $21 trillion. 

Let’s put this into perspective. It took the US 221 years to go from Zero debt in 1776 to $21 trillion in 1997 and just in the last 4 years, debt has gone up by that same $21 trillion.   

Now some will argue that it is not the same money today as 200 years ago.

No of course it is not the same money. Because every government destroys the value of their currency by creating unlimited amounts out of thin air to the detriment of savers and pensioners. 

The graph below shows the debt explosion during my working life so far. Up from $1.5 trillion in 1969 to $95T today – a totally mind boggling 63x increase.  

To gain power the incumbent government must promise the earth. Once in power they realise that there is no chance of maintaining prosperity without buying votes through chronic deficits and money printing. That’s why there have only been a handful of years since 1930 when US federal debt didn’t go up. Even in the Clinton years debt went up so the surpluses declared were due to false accounting. 

But total US debt of $ 95 trillion is only part of the total liabilities. Add to that unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare of say $150 trillion. Then there are gross derivatives within the banking system and in the shadow banking system of probably $2-2.5 quadrillion. This is a form of credit that can easily blow up when counterparties fail.  

A COMING INFERNO

Coming back to Dante’s Inferno, the 9 circles of hell are: 1. Limbo – where there is no god, 2. Lust, 3. Gluttony, 4. Greed, 5. Wrath, 6. Heresy, 7. Violence, 8. Fraud, and 9.Treachery.

Many of the 9 sins in Dante’s Inferno apply to today’s world but maybe Gluttony is one of the more fitting to a self indulgent Western world. 

Cerberus, the three-headed beast of hell, guards the gluttons mauling and flaying them for eternity.  (Sounds pretty horrible. A more modern version might be the song “Hotel California” by the Eagles – “You can check out any time but you can never leave”.) Also Homer wrote about Cerberus.

What we do know is that in this final phase that probably started in 1913 with the foundation of the Fed and accelerated from 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window we have seen the required excesses or gluttony that inevitably lead to a severe punishment.

We have seen historical bubbles in all asset markets whether in Stocks, Bonds, Property and many others. 

We have also seen debt explode, especially since 1971. As always in the final stages of an empire, real growth first slows down and then stops. 

THE WORLD HAS REACHED PEAK CHEAP ENERGY

The primary driver of economic growth since the second half of the 1700s has been the discovery and use of energy on an industrial scale, starting with the industrial revolution. 

The growth of the economy is not driven by money but by energy. 

As Tim Morgan of Surplus Energy Economics states:

“The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel.”

The dilemma is that the Energy Cost of Energy is constantly increasing. In 1990 that cost was 2.6% of fossil fuels and is estimated to be 12% in 2025. According to Dr Morgan, with the current  Energy Cost of Energy, the real economy as well as prosperity has started to decline and that trend will continue for several decades. Fossil fuels still represent 83% of all energy globally and renewable energy is unlikely to make any significant difference in the next few decades. 

So we are now looking at peak cheap energy at a time when asset markets are in bubble territory with debts and deficits at levels which can only result in an implosion. 

Again let me emphasise that cheap energy is a prerequisite for economic growth.

PANICKING GOVERNMENTS TAKE IRRATIONAL MEASURES

So what are governments doing about this. They are clearly aware of the risks and this is why they invent all kinds of events that will enable them to control the people. This includes Covid lockdowns, forced vaccinations, climate control, CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies), wars and unlimited rules, regulations and laws. The US for example now has over 300,000 laws controlling all aspects of daily life and making everyone a likely daily felon. 

REVALUATION OF GOLD

I have already in previous articles discussed the seismic shift that will take place from West to East and South based on commodities and manufacturing rather than debt and services. That will be a long process which is just starting: “A DISORDERLY RESET WITH GOLD REVALUED BY MULTIPLES”

Whilst a lot of gold investors are excited about the prospect of a BRICS currency backed by gold, personally I think that is far away. The Tweet by an official at the Russian embassy in Kenya is not quite enough to confirm this. 

As I have already written about here , I believe that gold will be the asset of choice for central banks to hold as reserves rather than dollars. Such a move would have a major impact on gold which I wrote about here: “MAJOR REVALUATION OF GOLD AND PRECIOUS METALS IS IMMINENT”.  

So with  risks facing the Western world of a magnitude never seen before in history, including  geopolitical, financial, economic, with the biggest asset and debt bubble in history coming to an end. 

It is clearly impossible to predict how this will play out. It is not even worth speculating. 

What we do know is that risk is now at a level which makes investment markets extremely dangerous. In the next few years major fortunes will be lost permanently. 

ASSET & DEBT EXPLOSION – IMPLOSION

Before we look at how to survive the biggest global asset bubble that has ever existed, let’s first look at the spectacle we have witnessed in the last 54 years. This is a selfish time period and reflects when in 1969 my working life started in banking in Geneva. 

This period conveniently coincides with Nixon closing the gold window in 1971. That was the end of sound money and the beginning of a free for all bonanza in money printing. 

So during my working life since 1969 US total debt has gone up 63X from $1.5 trillion to $95T. 

Yes, a rest is likely but it will be disorderly as I wrote about here:

But for anyone who doesn’t understand that the US and the world is at the end of a fantasy period of bubble assets created by fake money, just consider the following:

Bubbles always burst, without exception. But we know of course that bubbles can always grow bigger before they burst. 

What few people realise is that when a debt bubble explodes or more likely implodes, it could go almost as quickly as the recent implosion of the Titanic Submersible. 

The pressure on this vessel was remarkable:

A catastrophic implosion is “incredibly quick,” taking place within just a fraction of a millisecond, said Aileen Maria Marty, a former Naval officer and professor at Florida International University.

“The entire thing would have collapsed before the individuals inside would even realise that there was a problem,” she told CNN. “Ultimately, among the many ways in which we can pass, that’s painless.”

I doubt that global debt and the world financial system will implode in a fraction of a millisecond but as I have warned many times, an implosion of the $3 quadrillion of debt and derivatives could happen very, very quickly. It would unroll at such a speed that no central bank would have time to react. 

And as I have also pointed out, when the debt implodes, so will all the assets which were inflated by the debt. 

So even it doesn’t happen in milliseconds, it will be too quick to save. We saw this in the middle of March when 4 banks, led by Silicon Valley Bank, collapsed in a matter of a couple of days. And shortly thereafter Credit Suisse imploded too. 

As we know, it is impossible to time such an event. But the good thing is that we don’t need to time it. 

A MAJOR OPPORTUNITY

Investors must forget about gluttony and greed and stay away from Cerberus’ hell. If they can steer away from the current risks in the system, the opportunities to not just evade disaster but even enhance wealth are considerable. 

So forget about short term timing. And forget about greed. 

Just avoid the potential implosion of asset markets and safely position yourself for incredible opportunities, whenever they may happen. 

Personally I don’t things will take too long to unravel but I don’t care about the timing as long as I am sitting right. 

My views are not recommendations but only my personal risk assessment. 

Firstly I would hardly touch the following assets with a barge pole:

General stocks, bonds of any kind, corporate or sovereign, currencies, bank deposits, investments in commercial or residential property. 

There are of course always exceptions like commodity related stocks, defence stocks and many others.   

But remember that in a real bear market, all stocks tend to suffer. 

Even for the best companies, profits can halve and P/Es go from 20 to 5. That for example would lead to a decline in the share price of 88%! 

When I was at Dixons Plc in the UK during 1973-4 stock market collapse, I experienced a similar decline in our share price although the company was sound financially. From there we built Dixons to the leading electronic retailer in the UK and a FTSE 100 company. 

So anyone who believes that a 90% fall can’t happen to good businesses is seriously mistaken. 

What not to own is easy but what should we own?

The answer is self-evident as far as I am concerned. 

Commodities started an uptrend in 2020 and have a long way to go.

With gold being the only money which has survived and maintained its purchasing power in the last 5000 years, it is clearly the wealth preservation asset par excellence. 

We have mainly stayed away from silver in the last 20 years due to its volatility. It has not been a good metal if you want to sleep well at night. But now with the gold/silver ratio at 80 (meaning silver is relatively cheap vs gold), and with strong industrial demand for solar panels, electricals etc, we are likely to see a decline of the ratio to 30 initially and eventually to 15 or lower. That means silver will go up 3-5x as fast as gold. 

But physical gold is the king of metals for wealth preservation purposes and a smaller investment in physical silver should be seen as an investment/speculation with a massive potential. 

In addition to yellow gold, black gold – oil – moves very similar to the yellow metal. Thus major price increases in oil are likely. 

So owning stocks in good gold and silver companies as well as oil companies is likely to be an excellent investment for a number of years. 

But again I must stress that protection against the probably biggest asset implosion in history necessitates holding the majority of investment assets in physical gold and some silver, stored outside the financial system in a very safe jurisdiction and vault. 
Preferably the majority of your metals should be stored outside your country of residence. In case of emergency, you should be able to flee to your reserve asset.

A WORLD AT CROSSROADS

What is very clear to me is that the Western world is now at a crossroads. As Brutus said in his speech,  the right turn “leads on to fortune” whilst with the wrong turn you end up “in shallows and miseries”.

For anyone who realises the severity of the situation, the choice should be obvious, if not we will “lose our ventures”.

Facing such a momentous risk, protecting our families and stakeholders must be the only option.

end

3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

GATA chairman sees weakening in monetary metals price suppression

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-07-17 21:43Section: Daily Dispatches

9:42p ET Monday, July 17, 2023

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, interviewed by GoldSeek Radio’s Chris Waltzek, sees short-covering in the silver futures market and suspects that the entities that have been suppressing the price may be weakening, even as retail investor interest in the monetary metals has collapsed. The interview is 10 minutes long and can be heard at GoldSeek here:

https://goldseek.com/article/goldseek-radio-nugget-bill-murphy-silver-mining-and-exploration-shares-could-move-abruptly

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Ted Butler ponds the table that we are in code red for silver futures

(Ted Butler/full commentary below)

Ted Butler: Code Red in silver futures

Submitted by admin on Sun, 2023-07-16 23:17Section: Daily Dispatches

By Ted Butler
SilverSeek.com
Sunday, July 16, 2023

As a result of data released over the past week (mostly, the last three days), it seems clear to me that we may be facing a market emergency in Comex silver futures. 

I am trying hard not to be alarmist, but what I see alarms the heck out of me — to the point that I believe we are at the most critical juncture in Comex silver since the peak of prices back in early 1980, when all sorts of emergency measures were enacted to deal with the Hunt Brothers that are debated to this day, 43 years later.

Trading in silver, both on the Comex and in shares of SLV and other silver exchange-traded funds, since the close of business on Tuesday, July 11, has created what appears to me to be a “Code Red” situation, in that prices must soon move sharply higher or lower (or both). 

I’m not trying to be cagey and describe it in a manner where no matter what happens, I’ll appear to be correct. I’m motivated by something else entirely — namely, I’m almost stupefied by the changes in the official data over the past three trading days and how these changes portend a market that could lose its bearings. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://silverseek.com/article/code-red

END

4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES/

TED BUTLER

 

Code Red

July 16, 2023

Ted Butler

Butler Research

2.5kShares

As a result of data released over the past week (mostly, the last 3 days), it seems clear to me that we may be facing a clear market emergency in COMEX silver futures. I am trying hard not to be alarmist, but what I see alarms the heck out of me – to the point that I believe we are at the most critical juncture in COMEX silver since the peak of prices back in early 1980, when all sorts of emergency measures were enacted to deal with the Hunt Brothers that are debated to this day, 43 years later.

Trading in silver, both on the COMEX and in shares of SLV and other silver ETFs, since the close of business on Tuesday, July 11, has created what appears to me to be a “Code Red” situation, in that prices must soon move sharply higher or lower (or both). I’m not trying to be cagey and describe it in a manner where no matter what happens, I’ll appear to be correct. I’m motivated by something else entirely, namely, I’m almost stupefied by the changes in the official data over the past three trading days and how these changes portend a market that could lose its bearings.

First, there are the changes related to the pronounced ongoing physical silver shortage, starting with the new short report on securities released late Wednesday and which indicated that the short position on SLV rose by 3.8 million shares to 22.6 million shares (20.7 million oz), as of June 30.

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/etf/SLV

Over the past two reporting periods (4 weeks in all), the short position on SLV has increased by 8.5 million shares (7.8 million oz), at the same time that the much larger total commercial net short position on the COMEX had contracted notably (by roughly 45 million oz) over the same approximate time period. Over the years, generally, the short position on SLV and the commercial short position on the COMEX rose and fell in unison (although not always). The most plausible explanation for the divergence in the two short positions this time around would appear to be that shares of SLV were shorted because the physical metal was not available for deposit, as required by the prospectus, leaving the short sellers no choice but to sell short. The only other reasonable explanation was a conversion of shares of SLV for actual metal which suggests the converter was seeking to buy more and avoid reporting requirements. Both explanations are bullish.

This was compounded and confirmed by the redemption of more than 6 million oz from the SLV this week, instead of a large deposit – also highly-indicative of pronounced physical silver tightness. The sharpest short-term price rally in some time on increased trading volume strongly suggested there would be big net new investment buying, which should have resulted in metal deposits, not redemptions. Again, the most plausible explanation is that physical metal was withdrawn from the SLV to satisfy more urgent needs elsewhere.

But, by far, the most urgent factor pointing to a code red situation was the almost-unbelievable increase in total open interest in COMEX silver futures since Tuesday. Over just three days, the total open interest in COMEX silver futures rose by a massive 23,000 contracts, with at least 20,000  contracts being of the true and non-spread related increase in net new buying and net new selling

The way the futures derivatives market works is that a large increase in total open interest means an equally large increase in new long contracts as well as an equivalent increase in the number of new short positions (one new long plus one new short equals an increase of one contract of new open interest). Often times, a large increase in total open interest involves the creation of new spread positions, which are market neutral transactions (as phony as a three-dollar bill) and is not at all representative of actual price-moving trade positioning.

The sharp increase in total silver open interest over the past few days doesn’t look related to phony spread activity – it looks very much like the real deal, namely, massive new bets on price direction. This is at the heart of my code red premise. The very last thing the silver market needs right now, in its current state of confirmed physical shortage, is another 100 million ounces added to a derivatives’ bet already too large at hundreds of millions of ounces on the COMEX and more than a billion oz in OTC derivatives. It’s like throwing a hundred million barrels of gasoline on a fire already raging.

While we have to wait until next Friday’s COT report to know for sure what the actual positioning changes might be, that’s an eternity from now in terms of a possible market emergency and is why I’m sounding the alarm now. I’m hopeful that the CFTC and CME Group (owners of the COMEX) are on top of this, but fear they are not. Simply stated, this is the greatest market emergency in COMEX silver since the Hunt Brothers emergency in 1980. As far as possible regulatory actions, I would imagine some type of trading restrictions of the kind initiated back then. If this was analogous to a real war setting, the nuclear weapons would already have started to have been deployed.

On the buy side of the 100 million silver oz purchased over the past three days, the leading candidates would appear to be the managed money technical fund traders, as just last week I estimated they could buy 25,000 contracts (125 million oz or more) on higher prices. Certainly, we did get the type of buy signals associated with managed money buying – upside penetrations of key moving averages.

We also know for sure that the silver futures buyers were the initiators of the transactions on the COMEX, because when the price of any asset moves higher, it is always due to buyers initiating the transaction and with the sellers accommodating the buyers. Therefore, the question is not who were the buyers or what their motivation might have been, because that’s obvious – the buyers bought in the expectation of even higher prices (in order to make a profit). The real question is who were the sellers and what was their motivation. One might quickly counter that the sellers’ motivation was the same as the buyers, namely, to make a profit on the expectations of lower prices – but it isn’t as simple (and pure) as that.

The amount of buying over the past three days in COMEX silver was so large that prices should have carried much further than they did – and not just by $2. I’d estimate that if the sellers were purely motivated by a profit incentive, they would have demanded and extracted from the buyers much higher prices, say to well-over $30 or $35. Instead, the sellers accommodated the buyers by selling to them at way lower prices than the buyers would have paid. In other words, the sellers –  all new short sellers at that – had a different motivation in mind. Without question, the short sellers’ motive was to keep silver prices from surging higher, so as to cool and cutoff even further buying.

This is as sure as the nose on your face and is the same manipulative motivation deployed by the COMEX commercials over the past 4 decades. And while I had high expectations that 4 and 8 big former commercial shorts were done capping and controlling silver prices by aggressive and practically unlimited new and highly-illegitimate short selling, it’s hard for me to come up any conclusion other than these big former shorts being the big short sellers over the past three days.

While it’s true that the 4 big COMEX silver shorts didn’t add to their short positions on the $6 rally in March, it looks extremely likely they added aggressively on the $2 rally over the past three days. Why? What else could it be over than a blatant attempt to cap and control silver prices before they got out of hand and began to reflect tight physical market conditions? This in-your-face and uneconomic short selling is what has created extreme market emergency conditions in COMEX silver.

The newly-created 100 million oz of new longs and shorts are very much open positions that must be resolved or closed out in time – along with any new positions still yet to be created. The most obvious thing is that it makes compelling sense to be a silver buyer – whether that buyer was the big reporting trader which bought just before prices jumped or whether it was technical fund buying over the past three days on the technical signals created by higher prices. Flip that around and ask how much sense it makes to be an aggressive short seller at $25 silver (or less) and see what you come up with – away from another attempt to cap and eventually rig prices lower?

While I am hopeful that the regulators are fully abreast of the current extreme conditions that exist in COMEX silver futures, my fear is that they are not. There is a lot more blame and fault that can be assigned to the short sellers than the buyers, but that’s no guarantee or indication the regulators will see it that way. Regardless, the emergency looks to be fully in place, even if it is obvious to only a few, so we already have in place the conditions for extreme price violence.

The problem is that there’s no way I can tell if that price violence is to the downside first, followed by even greater price violence to the upside or if we explode straightaway – even more strongly than I have been suggesting previously. Yes, I know that the commercials have never been overrun to the upside, as my late friend and silver mentor, Izzy Friedman, always insisted they would, but then again, current conditions are more extreme than Izzy ever imagined, starting with all the signs of the intensifying physical shortage. Let me fully-acknowledge that Izzy’s full pants down premise looks more plausible to me than ever.

Knowing full-well and agreeing with the motivations of the silver buyers, be those motivations fundamental or technical in nature and believing I understand the motivations of the short sellers to be purely illegitimate and manipulative, it’s impossible for me to see how silver prices won’t explode in the end – even if they do flop first. I also can’t help envisioning the profile of a big bank short as 30-year-old kids running the books and shorting aggressively and where if they guess wrong and prices explode, they lose their jobs but not their money, as the losses will accrue to the banks, not the kid traders. I also have trouble thinking that JPMorgan is a big silver short in light of its yet to expire deferred criminal prosecution agreement.

Yes, I am convinced a real and present danger and emergency exists in COMEX silver, mainly as a result of the new 100 million oz long and short position created over the past three days which can’t help but result in extreme price volatility dead ahead. But in the end the result will be sharply higher prices – regardless whether we see lower prices first (or not).

Ted Butler

July 16, 2023

www.butlerresearch.com

END

5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: 

end

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//COCOA

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

END

 1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1742 

OFFSHORE YUAN:  DOWN TO 7.1790

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.81 PTS OR 0.37% 

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 398.06 PTS OR 2.05% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 112.63 PTS OR .32% 

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:    MOSTLY  ALL  RED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN  TO  99.77 EURO RISES TO 1.1243 UP 8 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.476 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 138.37/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP  CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN:  DOWN//  OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt. 

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN  FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.3675***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.018*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.399…** DANGEROUS//

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.790

3j Gold at $1965/10 silver at: 24.89 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0  AND  68 /100        roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 90.80//

3m oil into the  74  dollar handle for WTI and 78  handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 138.37//  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO 0.476% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8584 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9652 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc. 

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.764 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.904 DOWN 2  BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.702 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.96…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 2 BASIS PTS AT 4.4085

end

2.  Overnight:  Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

Futures Flat, Yields Slide As ECB Hawk Sends Dovish Message

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 07:51 AM

US equity futures were trading flat on Tuesday as Bank of America unveiled solid second-quarter earnings (and Morgan Stanley on deck), with retail sales also due this morning (expect a miss as noted last night) giving the latest insight on the health of American consumers. Contracts for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 futures were fractionally lower at 4,551 as of 7:15 a.m. ET. Treasury yields declined across maturities, while the dollar weakened. A rally in European bonds gained steam Tuesday after prominent ECB hawk Klaas Knot raised hopes that the end of the rate-hiking cycle is in sight. Gold, bitcoin and oil prices rose, whereas iron ore was down slightly.

In premarket trading, Microsoft and Activision Blizzard dropped slightly after Bloomberg reported that their $69 billion deal was unlikely to close by its Tuesday deadline. Here are some other premarket movers:

• Bank of America rose as much as 1.6% after reporting earnings that beat on the top and bottom line.
• Trade Desk’s rating is cut to sell from neutral at New Street Research, which reckons that near-term estimate revisions at the advertising tech firm are unlikely to support the expansion in price multiples. Shares slip 1.7% in US premarket trading.
• CommScope shares fell as much as 4% in US premarket trading after the communications equipment firm was cut to hold at Deutsche Bank, which says lingering pressure on customer orders is likely to persist.

A reprieve in inflation is prompting dovish talk among central bankers and speculation they’re ready to back down from the fastest pace of hikes in four decades. Yields tumbled across the region, with those on Italian debt sinking 13 basis points after ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said monetary tightening beyond next week’s meeting is anything but guaranteed. The yield on 10-year German securities fell as much as 8 basis points to 2.4%, a two-week low. Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said inflation may come down more quickly as lower commodity prices start to trickle through the economy. Consumer price index reports are due out of the Eurozone and UK Wednesday, after data last week showed US price pressures cooled more than economists had forecast.

Analysts have described the current equity rally as a bet on receding inflation allowing the US Federal Reserve to end its tightening monetary cycle. To that end, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a Bloomberg TV interview on Monday that the US was on a “good path” to bringing down inflation while avoiding a recession, a view with which 68% of fund managers in Bank of America’s July global survey agreed (more on that in a latter post).

“It’s clear that it’s the receding inflation narrative which is driving everything,” said Gilles Guibout, a portfolio manager at Axa Investment Managers in Paris. Guibout added that in his view, the market’s direction of travel upwards was due to a general sense of optimism rather than hard data. 

“Investors are feeding on hope: hope that US rates will get down sooner and hope that China will launch a stimulus package to beef up consumption,” he said, arguing that the lack of evidence on both fronts explained some of the wait-and-see positioning palpable across the market.

Equities also staged a recovery from the steepest losses in more than a week Monday, as the Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2%, as health care, chemicals and media are the best performing sectors while telecommunications fall. Ocado Group Plc shares rose as much as 16% after the UK online grocer’s first-half earnings topped estimates. Novartis AG climbed after raising its profit outlook and announcing plans for a share buyback of up to $15 billion. Here are some other notable European movers:

• Novartis gains as much as 4% after the Swiss pharmaceutical giant beat expectations on both sales and profit, with analysts highlighting the strong performance for some of its key drugs
• Ocado shares rise as much as 16% after the UK online grocer reported 1H earnings that beat estimates and show “a strong shift to profitability,” according to Bernstein
• Swedish Orphan Biovitrum shares jump as much as 8.8%, the most since December 2021, after the biotech reported 2Q sales that beat estimates and increased its revenue outlook for the year
• Darktrace gains as much as 25% after saying an independent review by Ernst & Young didn’t find issues in its processes that weren’t already known to the company
• Investor AB rises as much as 3.4% as analysts digest the news in the industrial holding company’s latest quarterly report. Handelsbanken raises its long-term recommendation to outperform
• Schibsted rises as much as 7.9%, the most since November 2022, after the Norwegian classified advertising and media firm delivered its second-quarter results
• Atoss Software shares jump as much as 9.4% to a record high after Warburg says the company delivered “outstanding” first-half results, noting a significant beat to Ebit margins
• Tele2 drops as much as 11% and is the worst performer in the Stoxx 600 on Tuesday after the telecom operator announced a significant increase in capital expenditure
• SFS falls as much as 5.9% after the fastening systems firm reported first half sales that missed estimates. Vontobel says the results reflect reduced consumer demand and cost inflation

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined, on course for a second day of losses, as Hong Kong played catch-up following weaker-than-expected Chinese economic growth. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped as much as 0.3%, with Tencent and Alibaba among the biggest drags. Hong Kong’s benchmark dropped 2% with property stocks among the biggest losers as the market reopened after a typhoon cancelled Monday’s session. Equities fell in mainland China for a second day, with Taiwan, South Korea and Australia also posting notable declines. The main Asian stock benchmark has stumbled for the past two days after its best weekly rally since January. The gauge is up 8% this year, underperforming key US and global measures amid concerns over China’s slow recovery.

• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lower with property stocks leading the declines in Hong Kong after the long-delayed results from the world’s most indebted developer Evergrande which suffered a net loss of CNY 476bln and CNY 105.9bln for 2021 and 2022, respectively. The US-China relationship also remained in focus with amicable comments in talks between US Climate Envoy Kerry and China’s top diplomat Wang Yi, although this was somewhat negated by reports the US aims to propose China investment limits by the end of next month and that President Biden is weighing new curbs on chips and semiconductor-making devices.
• ASX 200 was subdued as participants digested the RBA Minutes from the July 4th meeting which noted that the Board agreed some further tightening may be required and will reconsider at the August meeting, while it also noted the economy had slowed considerably and that consumer spending is seen weak in Q2.
• Nikkei 225 initially advanced on return from the long weekend but then suffered a reality check and momentarily faded all of its gains amid weakness in its peers.
• Indian stocks closed at new record highs on Tuesday, outperforming most regional peers, boosted by gains in Reliance Industries and information technology stocks. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.3% to 66,795.14 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.2% to 19,749.25. Indian stocks have seen continued support from global funds, who bought net about $2.7 billion worth of local shares in July so far, taking the total inflows this year to $13.8 billion. Shares of Adani Group closed mostly higher after Founder Gautam Adani told shareholders that the group will improve corporate governance standards, while reaffirming its ambitious growth targets.  Infosys contributed the most to the Sensex’s gain, increasing 3.7%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 14 rose, while 16.

China’s stuttering recovery is leading to disquiet as investors consider the knock-on effects from a slowdown in the world’s growth engine. “Investors will be much more interested to understand the outlooks for Q3, as macro continues to deteriorate, mainly in Europe, and China’s expectation of a sudden recovery is faltering,” Luca Fina, head of equity at Generali Insurance Asset Management, wrote in a note to clients.

Investors are looking for possible announcements of further stimulus from Beijing after the slower-than-expected growth data for the second quarter. Joyce Chang, JPMorgan’s global research chair, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV that she expected “modest” measures and better third-quarter growth figures from Asia’s largest economy. Despite the weakness in Chinese equities, HSBC remains upbeat on the long-term outlook for the offshore market, “given the prospects for earnings growth and policies aimed at stimulating growth in China,” according to Raymond Liu, an equity strategist at the firm.

In FX, the dollar remained near its 15-month low on mounting expectations the Federal Reserve is set to wind down its hiking macrocycle. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1% while the kiwi is the weakest of the G-10’s, falling 0.5% versus the greenback. The euro pared a gain after Knot’s remarks, but remains on track for its longest winning daily streak since October 2004.

In rates, treasuries advanced with 10-year futures exceeding Monday session highs, led by bunds after dovish comments from Klaas Knot, hawkish member of the ECB Board, who pushed back on expectations for a September rate hike. The Dutch central bank governor is widely known as one of the most hawkish members of the Governing Council but seemed to push back against market pricing for two more quarter-point interest rate hikes. German two-year yields are down 10bps at 3.09%, while US yields were richer by 3bp to 6bp across the curve with gains led by belly, extending Monday’s steepening move in 5s30s spread by an additional 2.5bp on the day; 10-year yields at ~3.75% are richer by 5bp vs Monday close with bunds outperforming by 2bp in the sector.  Swap contracts linked to Fed policy meetings edge closer to fully pricing in a quarter-point rate increase on July 26 for the first time since the June meeting; an additional increase after July continues to be about one-third priced in. The US session includes a raft of economic data led by retail sales and industrial production.   

In commodities, crude futures advanced, with WTI rising 0.7% to trade near $74.70. Spot gold rises 0.4%.

Bitcoin is a touch firmer but has slipped below the $30K mark despite the softer USD with catalysts light and the tone very much one of anticipation ahead of earnings and data.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include US retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for June, along with the NAHB’s housing market index for July. Meanwhile in Canada, we’ll get the June CPI release. From central banks, we’ll hear from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr. Finally, earnings releases include Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,555.25
• MXAP little changed at 168.18
• MXAPJ down 0.7% to 530.15
• Nikkei up 0.3% to 32,493.89
• Topix up 0.6% to 2,252.28
• Hang Seng Index down 2.1% to 19,015.72
• Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,197.82
• Sensex up 0.4% to 66,883.88
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,283.78
• Kospi down 0.4% to 2,607.62
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 459.29
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.41%
• Euro little changed at $1.1237
• Brent Futures up 0.2% to $78.65/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,961.39
• U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 99.81

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• Australia’s central bank said the case to leave interest rates unchanged this month was the “stronger one” following a series of line-ball decisions as policymakers focused on the long lags of transmission and the risk of a sharper economic downturn
• The Biden administration’s plans to restrict investments in China will be narrowly focused on cutting-edge technology, only new investments, and likely won’t go into effect until next year as the policy grinds through Washington’s bureaucracy
• Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said China’s economic slowdown risks causing ripple effects across the global economy, though she doesn’t expect a recession in the US
• US bank regulators are set to release their plans next week for a sweeping overhaul of capital rules, with the latest draft including requirements for large lenders’ residential mortgages that go beyond international standards
• Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador criticized Texas Governor Greg Abbott for installing buoys in the Rio Grande to prevent migrants from swimming across the border
• Brendan Murphy is shorting 10-year Japanese government bond futures on a wager that it’s only a matter of time before the nation’s central bank tightens monetary policy
• Shale oil production, which has revolutionized the energy industry and transformed the US economy, will stop growing in August, according to a government report
• Argentina’s overseas bonds climbed Monday after the nation’s opposition coalition pummeled the left-leaning incumbent in a primary gubernatorial election Sunday night

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower after the region failed to sustain the momentum from Wall St where tech and small caps outperformed after NY Fed Manufacturing data softened the blow from recent Chinese data. ASX 200 was subdued as participants digested the RBA Minutes from the July 4th meeting which noted that the Board agreed some further tightening may be required and will reconsider at the August meeting, while it also noted the economy had slowed considerably and that consumer spending is seen weak in Q2. Nikkei 225 initially advanced on return from the long weekend but then suffered a reality check and momentarily faded all of its gains amid weakness in its peers. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lower with property stocks leading the declines in Hong Kong after the long-delayed results from the world’s most indebted developer Evergrande which suffered a net loss of CNY 476bln and CNY 105.9bln for 2021 and 2022, respectively. The US-China relationship also remained in focus with amicable comments in talks between US Climate Envoy Kerry and China’s top diplomat Wang Yi, although this was somewhat negated by reports the US aims to propose China investment limits by the end of next month and that President Biden is weighing new curbs on chips and semiconductor-making devices.

Top Asian News

• China published measures to support household consumption which includes home appliances and it told financial companies to enhance household spending support. China stated that authorities will encourage companies to create online service platforms for household consumer services and will kick off household consumer goods promotion.
• China’s NDRC said they will deepen SOE reforms, break the institutional barriers restricting private firms from participating in fair market competition and will boost private investment, as well as create a positive development environment for private firms. NDRC added that persistent economic recovery faces risks and challenges including insufficient demand, sluggish momentum and weak confidence, while it will boost household income through various channels and will strive to ensure household income growth is basically in line with economic growth.
• US aims to propose China investment limits by end-August with limits likely to not take effect until 2024, while US outbound investment curbs are focused on AI, chips and quantum computing, according to Bloomberg citing sources familiar with Biden administration’s plans.
• US Climate Envoy Kerry met with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi in Beijing and said their hope is that this could be the beginning of a new cooperation to solve the differences between the US and China, while Wang called Kerry ‘our old friend’ at the meeting in Beijing and Kerry noted that President Biden is very committed to stability in the US-China relationship and to achieve efforts that can make a difference to the world. Kerry also stated that President Biden values his relationship with President Xi and looks forward to being able to move forward and change the dynamics, while he added that they can begin to change the broader relationship through climate talks.
• RBA Minutes from the July 4th meeting stated that the Board considered holding rates steady or hiking by 25bps and that there was a strong case for both but Board judged arguments for holding steady were stronger, while it agreed some further tightening may be required and would reconsider at the August meeting. RBA stated that the current stance of monetary policy was clearly restrictive and would become more so, as well as noted the economy had slowed considerably with Q2 GDP growth seen around 0.2% Q/Q and consumer spending is seen weak in Q2 although a rebound in the housing market will support consumption.

Top European News

• UK food manufacturers reduced prices for the first time in three years last month which increases hopes that record-high grocery inflation could start to slow soon, according to a report in The Times citing data from the Lloyds monthly UK business tracker.
• ECB’s Visco said underlying inflation is stubborn and is more complicated, while he also commented that manufacturing is slowing but services such as tourism are booming.
• ECB’s Knot, re. a hike in July, describes this as a necessity. Hikes beyond July are possible, not a certainty. Could have hit an inflation plateau, via Bloomberg TV.

FX

• Buck fades after brief post-Empire State bounce, but DXY finds support ahead of 99.500 and last Friday’s low.
• Euro extends gains on 1.1200 handle vs Dollar to probe Fib resistance at 1.1271 before knock-back from ECB’s Knot.
• Yen rebounds sharply against Greenback from 138.92 to 138.10 as US Treasury yields retreat, Pound retests 1.3100 on the eve of UK CPI, but Loonie loses 1.3200+ status approaching Canadian inflation data.
• Aussie flanked by option expiries at 0.6800 and 0.6850, Kiwi loses momentum and grip of 0.6300 ahead of NZ Q2 CPI.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1453 vs exp. 7.1704 (prev. 7.1326)

Fixed Income

• Debt extends recovery rally towards or through current m-t-d highs.
• Bunds pull up just shy of 134.00 between 133.97-08 parameters, Gilts reach 95.72 from a 95.20 Liffe low and T-note tops 113-00 within a 113-02+/112-19 + range ahead of tier one US and Canadian data.
• 2053 UK sale came with lengthy tail, but new German Schatz well received.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are little changed this morning despite a choppy start to the week on Monday with catalysts thin thus far.
• Spot gold is deriving some incremental support from the softer USD and tentative risk tone, though action is very much in a holding pattern before US earnings and data thereafter.
• Base metals are pressured in a continuation of the China story and despite a number of support measures being flagged in APAC trade for the region.
• Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGas says all three oil refineries are operating normally, following the power outage at the beginning of July, via Tass.

Geopolitics

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he agreed with UN Secretary-General Guterres to work together on ensuring Black Sea grain shipments and food security, according to Reuters.
• Taiwan’s VP and ruling party candidate Lai is to visit the US in August as part of a South American trip although the trip will not involve high-profile engagements or locations that could provide a pretext for a reaction from Beijing, according to FT citing sources.
• US Secretary of State Blinken said there’s no reason for China to use the transit in the US of Taiwan’s presidential frontrunner Lai as a pretext for provocative action.
• Senior US, Japanese and South Korean officials are to meet in Japan on Thursday to discuss recent developments in North Korea, according to a Japanese Foreign Ministry statement. Furthermore, South Korean President Yoon said the new nuclear consultative group meeting with the US will be a starting point to build strong, effective deterrence against North Korea, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: June Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.3%
  • June Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
  • June Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
  • June Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
• 09:15: June Industrial Production MoM, est. 0%, prior -0.2%
  • June Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0%, prior 0.1%
  • June Capacity Utilization, est. 79.5%, prior 79.6%
• 10:00: May Business Inventories, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 10:00: July NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 56, prior 55
• 16:00: May Total Net TIC Flows, prior $48.4b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I’ll be wearing a hard hat and steel capped boots in the office today. No I’m not giving my team their appraisals but am going to have a look around Deutsche Bank’s brand new London HQ which is currently in the last few months of being built. The CGI mock ups look phenomenal and there is everything you could possibly want in one building (apart from a golf simulator). However I do remember when I moved from the City to Canary Wharf in around 1996 at my old firm, we were each given a promo video for the move that included doing horse riding, rowing, dragon boat racing and feeding farmyard animals in your lunch break. It’s fair to say none of that ever materialised. The place was a ghost town for a few years!

Investors in certain pockets of the market had to don hard hats themselves yesterday as weak Chinese data dominated markets during a weak Asia and European session. Risk sentiment improved during US hours with the S&P 500 (+0.39%) and NASDAQ (+0.93%) managing to hit fresh 15-month highs, while European stocks most exposed to China suffered.

As a reminder, China’s Q2 GDP growth came in at +6.3% on a year-on-year basis (vs. +7.1% expected), which added to the series of underwhelming data there over recent months. On the back of the release, our China economists have lowered their GDP growth view for 2023 from +6.0% to +5.3%, and for 2024 from +6.1% to +5.0%, noting evidence of lacklustre domestic consumption demand and a deterioration in the property sector. They expect additional monetary easing to come through in H2 2023, and see the need for fiscal easing as well. See their report here for more.

The data weighed in particular on European equities, being generally more exposed to China than their US counterparts. Most notably, the CAC 40 (-1.12%) was the biggest underperformer, because the French index has a concentration in luxury goods that are more affected by demand from China, whilst the Swiss Market Index was down -1.21% as well. In turn, that dragged down the broader STOXX 600 (-0.63%), with LVMH (-3.73%) and Hermès (-4.21%) among the worst performers.

This weakness wasn’t anywhere near as obvious in the US, where the S&P 500 (+0.39%) posted a decent advance that took it to another 15-month high. However, if you looked at the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index (-0.17%), which covers US-traded stocks where a majority of business is conducted in China, there was a visible underperformance. Indeed, that index is now only up +5.77% on a YTD basis, which is some way beneath the +17.80% gain for the S&P 500. That said, broader US equities had a positive day, with the NASDAQ (+0.93%) also hitting a 15-month high and the FANG+ index of tech megacap stocks (+1.21%) outperforming to reach a new all-time high.

Aside from the effect on equities, the more cautious outlook for China led investors to dial back their expectations of future rate hikes. The moves were fairly modest, but futures pricing for the Fed’s terminal rate in November came down -0.5bps to 5.40%, and is down another -1.3bps this morning to 5.39%. Looking further out, the rate for the June 2024 meeting fell -3.3bps to 4.64%, with another -1.8bps fall this morning to 4.62%. That helped yields to decline across most of the curve, with the 2yr Treasury yield down -2.7bps to 4.74%, whilst the 10yr yield was down -2.4bps to 3.81%. That trend was further supported by a decline in commodity prices, with Brent Crude oil prices (-1.72%) down to a one-week low of $78.50/bbl.

When it came to the ECB, there was also a bit more caution about the near-term hiking profile. For instance, markets continue to remain very confident in the likelihood of a hike next week, with a 94% chance of a move priced in. But there’s more caution about the meeting after that in September, where a 70% chance is priced of a second hike. That was echoed again in ECB commentary, with Bundesbank President Nagel saying yesterday that “we have to hike next time”. However, he remained more cautious about September, saying that “we will see what the data will tell us”. So a clearly data dependent tone from one of the most hawkish Governing Council members.

This trend helped European sovereign bonds, with yields on 10yr bunds (-3.5bps), OATs (-3.2bps) and BTPs (-1.8bps) all coming down. UK gilts were a relative underperformer, but the 10yr yield still fell -1.1bps on the day. That comes ahead of tomorrow’s CPI print for June, which will be closely watched for whether the BoE will deliver another 50bp hike in August. Remember that the last 4 CPI prints in a row have all seen upside surprises, so that’ll be one to watch when it comes out.

On the geopolitical side, there was significant news after Russia suspended its participation in the grain deal with Ukraine, the previous extension of which ran until yesterday. The move will be bad news for food prices given Ukraine’s role as a key exporter, although our EM economists note that volumes exported under the deal had already declined in recent months. There was a market reaction in response, with wheat prices spiking higher, before paring back the gains to end the day up +1.91%.

Overnight in Asia, equities have seen further declines this morning, despite an announcement from China’s Ministry of Commerce to support household consumption. That includes encouragement for financial institutions to strengthen credit support. In part, that’s down to more negative news on the earnings side, with Evergrande posting a full-year loss for 2022 of 105.9bn yuan, which has led to a decline among Chinese developers overnight.

In terms of the specific moves, the Hang Seng (-2.17%) is the biggest underperformer, with the CSI 300 (-0.30%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.35%) also losing ground. That’s been echoed for the KOSPI (-0.44%), although the Nikkei (+0.08%) has been the exception with a modest gain. Looking forward, US equity futures are also pointing lower, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.09%.

Elsewhere overnight, the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting on July 4 policy meeting pointed away from another hike in the near term, saying that the case to leave rates on hold was the “stronger one”. Their next meeting is on August 1, but overnight index swaps are only pricing in a 22% chance of another 25bp hike then.

There was very little data to speak of yesterday, although one release was the Empire State manufacturing survey from the US. That saw the headline general business conditions index fall to 1.1 in July, which was slightly better than the -3.5 reading expected by the consensus. There were some positive trends on inflation as well, with the prices paid component down to 16.7, and the prices received component down to 3.9. The last time either were that low was back in the summer of 2020, so it adds to the positive signal from last week’s CPI report.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include US retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for June, along with the NAHB’s housing market index for July. Meanwhile in Canada, we’ll get the June CPI release. From central banks, we’ll hear from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr. Finally, earnings releases include Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.

2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT

EUROPE

Contained trade pre-earnings/data; USD pressured while fixed recovers – Newsquawk US Market Open

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 06:23 AM

• European bourses & US futures are contained ahead of earnings and data
• Within Europe, pre-market action was dominated by Q2 updates with Novartis’ results lifting its sector & the SMI
• DXY remains pressured but has found support around Friday’s trough with EUR, GBP & JPY appreciating
• Fixed income has extended its recovery rally heading towards MTD peaks, though Gilts off best after weak issuance
• USD and risk supports gold while crude remains rangebound with catalysts light
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Retail Sales, Business Inventories & Industrial Production, Canadian CPI & New Zealand CPI, Speeches from Fed’s Barr. Earnings from Morgan Stanley & Bank of America.

More Newsquawk in 3 steps:

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)

3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European benchmarks are in close proximity to the unchanged mark, after a particularly busy European pre-market ahead of key US earnings, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%.
• Sectors are mostly in the green, with Healthcare outperforming after Novartis and the SMI also bolstered in turn; conversely, Telecom names lag amid marked pressure in Tele2.
• Stateside, futures are similarly contained ahead of earnings and data, ES U/C; thus far, impulses have been limited given we are in the Fed blackout period now.
• Synchrony Financial (SYF) Q2 2023 (USD): EPS 1.32 (exp. 1.24), Revenue 4.12bln (exp. 4.12bln). +0.5% in pre-market trade
• Click here for more detail.
• Click here and here for a recap of the main European equity updates.

FX

• Buck fades after brief post-Empire State bounce, but DXY finds support ahead of 99.500 and last Friday’s low.
• Euro extends gains on 1.1200 handle vs Dollar to probe Fib resistance at 1.1271 before knock-back from ECB’s Knot.
• Yen rebounds sharply against Greenback from 138.92 to 138.10 as US Treasury yields retreat, Pound retests 1.3100 on the eve of UK CPI, but Loonie loses 1.3200+ status approaching Canadian inflation data.
• Aussie flanked by option expiries at 0.6800 and 0.6850, Kiwi loses momentum and grip of 0.6300 ahead of NZ Q2 CPI.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1453 vs exp. 7.1704 (prev. 7.1326)
• Click here for more detail.
• Click here for the notable option expiries, NY cut.

FIXED INCOME

• Debt extends recovery rally towards or through current m-t-d highs.
• Bunds pull up just shy of 134.00 between 133.97-08 parameters, Gilts reach 95.72 from a 95.20 Liffe low and T-note tops 113-00 within a 113-02+/112-19 + range ahead of tier one US and Canadian data.
• 2053 UK sale came with lengthy tail, but new German Schatz well received.
• Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

• Crude benchmarks are little changed this morning despite a choppy start to the week on Monday with catalysts thin thus far.
• Spot gold is deriving some incremental support from the softer USD and tentative risk tone, though action is very much in a holding pattern before US earnings and data thereafter.
• Base metals are pressured in a continuation of the China story and despite a number of support measures being flagged in APAC trade for the region.
• Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGas says all three oil refineries are operating normally, following the power outage at the beginning of July, via Tass.
• Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US bank regulators are set to impose new capital rules next week with US banks facing tougher mortgage capital rules than Basel standards, according to Bloomberg.
• Samsung Electronics (005380 KS) is reportedly likely to make Tesla’s (TSLA) next-gen FSD chips to be used in their Level-5 autonomous driving vehicles, via Korean Economic Daily. Industry officials add “Now, Tesla plans to work with both TSMC and Samsung, or could switch to Samsung from TSMC altogether, for mass production of the fifth-generation auto chips” but that “Splitting next-generation chip production between the two is more likely though,”
• Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• UK food manufacturers reduced prices for the first time in three years last month which increases hopes that record-high grocery inflation could start to slow soon, according to a report in The Times citing data from the Lloyds monthly UK business tracker.
• ECB’s Visco said underlying inflation is stubborn and is more complicated, while he also commented that manufacturing is slowing but services such as tourism are booming.
• ECB’s Knot, re. a hike in July, describes this as a necessity. Hikes beyond July are possible, not a certainty. Could have hit an inflation plateau, via Bloomberg TV.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is a touch firmer but has slipped below the USD 30k mark despite the softer USD with catalysts light and the tone very much one of anticipation ahead of earnings and data.

GEOPOLITICS

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he agreed with UN Secretary-General Guterres to work together on ensuring Black Sea grain shipments and food security, according to Reuters.
• Taiwan’s VP and ruling party candidate Lai is to visit the US in August as part of a South American trip although the trip will not involve high-profile engagements or locations that could provide a pretext for a reaction from Beijing, according to FT citing sources.
• US Secretary of State Blinken said there’s no reason for China to use the transit in the US of Taiwan’s presidential frontrunner Lai as a pretext for provocative action.
• Senior US, Japanese and South Korean officials are to meet in Japan on Thursday to discuss recent developments in North Korea, according to a Japanese Foreign Ministry statement. Furthermore, South Korean President Yoon said the new nuclear consultative group meeting with the US will be a starting point to build strong, effective deterrence against North Korea, according to Reuters.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were mostly lower after the region failed to sustain the momentum from Wall St where tech and small caps outperformed after NY Fed Manufacturing data softened the blow from recent Chinese data.
• ASX 200 was subdued as participants digested the RBA Minutes from the July 4th meeting which noted that the Board agreed some further tightening may be required and will reconsider at the August meeting, while it also noted the economy had slowed considerably and that consumer spending is seen weak in Q2.
• Nikkei 225 initially advanced on return from the long weekend but then suffered a reality check and momentarily faded all of its gains amid weakness in its peers.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lower with property stocks leading the declines in Hong Kong after the long-delayed results from the world’s most indebted developer Evergrande which suffered a net loss of CNY 476bln and CNY 105.9bln for 2021 and 2022, respectively. The US-China relationship also remained in focus with amicable comments in talks between US Climate Envoy Kerry and China’s top diplomat Wang Yi, although this was somewhat negated by reports the US aims to propose China investment limits by the end of next month and that President Biden is weighing new curbs on chips and semiconductor-making devices.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China published measures to support household consumption which includes home appliances and it told financial companies to enhance household spending support. China stated that authorities will encourage companies to create online service platforms for household consumer services and will kick off household consumer goods promotion.
• China’s NDRC said they will deepen SOE reforms, break the institutional barriers restricting private firms from participating in fair market competition and will boost private investment, as well as create a positive development environment for private firms. NDRC added that persistent economic recovery faces risks and challenges including insufficient demand, sluggish momentum and weak confidence, while it will boost household income through various channels and will strive to ensure household income growth is basically in line with economic growth.
• US aims to propose China investment limits by end-August with limits likely to not take effect until 2024, while US outbound investment curbs are focused on AI, chips and quantum computing, according to Bloomberg citing sources familiar with Biden administration’s plans.
• US Climate Envoy Kerry met with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi in Beijing and said their hope is that this could be the beginning of a new cooperation to solve the differences between the US and China, while Wang called Kerry ‘our old friend’ at the meeting in Beijing and Kerry noted that President Biden is very committed to stability in the US-China relationship and to achieve efforts that can make a difference to the world. Kerry also stated that President Biden values his relationship with President Xi and looks forward to being able to move forward and change the dynamics, while he added that they can begin to change the broader relationship through climate talks.
• RBA Minutes from the July 4th meeting stated that the Board considered holding rates steady or hiking by 25bps and that there was a strong case for both but Board judged arguments for holding steady were stronger, while it agreed some further tightening may be required and would reconsider at the August meeting. RBA stated that the current stance of monetary policy was clearly restrictive and would become more so, as well as noted the economy had slowed considerably with Q2 GDP growth seen around 0.2% Q/Q and consumer spending is seen weak in Q2 although a rebound in the housing market will support consumption.
• END

ASIA

Biden reportedly considering curbs on chips; key European & US earnings due – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 01:34 AM

• APAC stocks were mostly lower after the region failed to sustain the momentum from Wall St where tech and small caps outperformed.
• US President Biden is weighing new curbs on chips and semiconductor-making devices, according to Bloomberg.
• European equity futures are indicative of a slightly higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1% after the cash market closed down by 1.0% yesterday.
• DXY remains sub-100.00, EUR/USD hovers around 1.1250, Cable is eyeing a test of 1.31 to the upside.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Retail Sales, Business Inventories & Industrial Production, Canadian CPI & New Zealand CPI, Speeches from Fed’s Barr, Supply from UK & Germany, Earnings from Novartis, Ocado, Morgan Stanley & Bank of America.

More Newsquawk in 3 steps:

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)

3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks were firmer with gains led by the tech sector after the Nasdaq rebalancing decision lacked the bite that some had feared, while the Russell 2k outperformed the major indices after the improvement in the NY Fed’s Empire manufacturing index cushioned the blow from the disappointing Chinese GDP data and supported small caps.
• SPX +0.39% at 4,523, NDX +0.95% at 15,713, DJIA +0.22% at 34,585, RUT +1.04% at 1,951.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• NY Fed June SCE credit access survey overall rejection rate for credit applicants increased to 21.8% which is the highest since June 2018 with the increase broad-based across age groups and the highest among those with credit scores below 680.
• US bank regulators are set to impose new capital rules next week with US banks facing tougher mortgage capital rules than Basel standards, according to Bloomberg.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were mostly lower after the region failed to sustain the momentum from Wall St where tech and small caps outperformed after NY Fed Manufacturing data softened the blow from recent Chinese data.
• ASX 200 was subdued as participants digested the RBA Minutes from the July 4th meeting which noted that the Board agreed some further tightening may be required and will reconsider at the August meeting, while it also noted the economy had slowed considerably and that consumer spending is seen weak in Q2.
• Nikkei 225 initially advanced on return from the long weekend but then suffered a reality check and momentarily faded all of its gains amid weakness in its peers.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lower with property stocks leading the declines in Hong Kong after the long-delayed results from the world’s most indebted developer Evergrande which suffered a net loss of CNY 476bln and CNY 105.9bln for 2021 and 2022, respectively. The US-China relationship also remained in focus with amicable comments in talks between US Climate Envoy Kerry and China’s top diplomat Wang Yi, although this was somewhat negated by reports the US aims to propose China investment limits by the end of next month and that President Biden is weighing new curbs on chips and semiconductor-making devices.
• US equity futures traded sideways heading into upcoming data and earnings releases, while a report that US banks are facing tougher mortgage capital rules than Basel standards was largely ignored by futures.
• European equity futures are indicative of a slightly higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1% after the cash market closed down by 1.0% yesterday.

FX

• DXY remained lacklustre at a sub-100.00 level with attention now turning to the upcoming data from the US due later including Retail Sales.
• EUR/USD eked marginal gains but with price action contained around the 1.1250 level after recent ECB rhetoric provided little in the way of fresh insight.
• GBP/USD gradually edged higher and looks to make another attempt at reclaiming the 1.3100 status.
• USD/JPY eventually trickled lower following its recent whipsawing through the 139.00 level.
• Antipodeans were choppy with two-way price action seen after the RBA minutes remained hawkish but also provided a bearish tone on the economy.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1453 vs exp. 7.1704 (prev. 7.1326)

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures struggled for direction following the prior day’s choppy performance.
• Bund futures slightly edged higher overnight after bouncing off support near the 133.00 level.
• 10yr JGB futures were kept afloat but with price action indecisive amid a lack of data releases and the absence of additional BoJ purchases.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures were quiet amid a lack of notable energy-related catalysts and with the rebound from support at the prior day’s lows limited by the overhang from recent disappointing Chinese data.
• US total shale regions oil production for August is seen to decline 18k BPD to 9.399mln BPD vs 5.9k BPD rise in July, according to the EIA.
• Spot Gold traded marginally higher alongside a further weakening of the greenback.
• Copper futures were confined to within a tight range amid the mostly risk-averse mood in Asia.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin traded indecisively although just about held above the USD 30,000 level.
• Binance reduced company employee benefits and warned more cost-cutting could come amid a decline in profit as a result of the current market environment and regulatory climate, according to WSJ citing a letter.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China published measures to support household consumption which includes home appliances and it told financial companies to enhance household spending support. China stated that authorities will encourage companies to create online service platforms for household consumer services and will kick off household consumer goods promotion.
• China’s NDRC said they will deepen SOE reforms, break the institutional barriers restricting private firms from participating in fair market competition and will boost private investment, as well as create a positive development environment for private firms. NDRC added that persistent economic recovery faces risks and challenges including insufficient demand, sluggish momentum and weak confidence, while it will boost household income through various channels and will strive to ensure household income growth is basically in line with economic growth.
• US aims to propose China investment limits by end-August with limits likely to not take effect until 2024, while US outbound investment curbs are focused on AI, chips and quantum computing, according to Bloomberg citing sources familiar with Biden administration’s plans.
• US President Biden is weighing new curbs on chips and semiconductor-making devices, while Intel (INTC), Nvidia (NVDA) and Qualcomm (QCOM) CEOs are seeking to ease new restrictions, according to Bloomberg.
• US State Department said Secretary of State Blinken saw the meeting with chip CEOs as an opportunity to share his perspective on the industry and supply chains after his recent trip to China.
• US Climate Envoy Kerry met with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi in Beijing and said their hope is that this could be the beginning of a new cooperation to solve the differences between the US and China, while Wang called Kerry ‘our old friend’ at the meeting in Beijing and Kerry noted that President Biden is very committed to stability in the US-China relationship and to achieve efforts that can make a difference to the world. Kerry also stated that President Biden values his relationship with President Xi and looks forward to being able to move forward and change the dynamics, while he added that they can begin to change the broader relationship through climate talks.
• China’s National Meteorological Centre said typhoon Talim made landfall in China’s Guangdong with nearly 230k people evacuated as of 17:00 Monday local time and the typhoon is expected to move to the Beibu Gulf in the South China Sea, while the typhoon may make a second landfall in the coastal area of the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region on Tuesday morning, according to Xinhua.
• RBA Minutes from the July 4th meeting stated that the Board considered holding rates steady or hiking by 25bps and that there was a strong case for both but Board judged arguments for holding steady were stronger, while it agreed some further tightening may be required and would reconsider at the August meeting. RBA stated that the current stance of monetary policy was clearly restrictive and would become more so, as well as noted the economy had slowed considerably with Q2 GDP growth seen around 0.2% Q/Q and consumer spending is seen weak in Q2 although a rebound in the housing market will support consumption.

GEOPOLITICS

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he agreed with UN Secretary-General Guterres to work together on ensuring Black Sea grain shipments and food security, according to Reuters.
• White House’s Kirby said taking grain out to sea by escort is not an option and getting grain out by land is not effective, while he urged for Russia to immediately reverse the decision to end the Black Sea grain deal.
• US Pentagon said it will send additional F-35 and F-16 jets along with a warship to the Middle East to defend US interests and safeguard freedom of navigation.
• Taiwan’s VP and ruling party candidate Lai is to visit the US in August as part of a South American trip although the trip will not involve high-profile engagements or locations that could provide a pretext for a reaction from Beijing, according to FT citing sources.
• US Secretary of State Blinken said there’s no reason for China to use the transit in the US of Taiwan’s presidential frontrunner Lai as a pretext for provocative action.
• Senior US, Japanese and South Korean officials are to meet in Japan on Thursday to discuss recent developments in North Korea, according to a Japanese Foreign Ministry statement. Furthermore, South Korean President Yoon said the new nuclear consultative group meeting with the US will be a starting point to build strong, effective deterrence against North Korea, according to Reuters.

UK/EU

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• UK food manufacturers reduced prices for the first time in three years last month which increases hopes that record-high grocery inflation could start to slow soon, according to a report in The Times citing data from the Lloyds monthly UK business tracker.
• ECB’s Visco said underlying inflation is stubborn and is more complicated, while he also commented that manufacturing is slowing but services such as tourism are booming.
• French President Macron decided to keep Elisabeth Borne as PM despite the fallout from pension reform unrest and riots, according to Reuters.

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:

TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.81 PTS OR 0.77%   //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 396.06 PTS OR 2.05%        /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 112.43 PTS OR .32% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.020 %   /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.1742  /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN  TO 7.1790 /Oil DOWN TO 74,42 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT  UP AT 78,869 / Stocks in Europe OPENED  MOSTLY RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

////SOUTH KOREA/CHINA

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN/

END

3 CHINA /

CHINA/HONG KONG

This is the way that China does business: Hong Kong offers $1 million bounties to apprehend dissidents abroad

(Hui/RealClear Wire)

Hong Kong Offers $1M Bounties For Dissidents Abroad

MONDAY, JUL 17, 2023 – 11:40 PM

Authored by Frances Hui via RealClear Wire,

The government of Hong Kong is offering a bounty of up to $1 million to anyone who can help find eight activists who fled to other countries and continue to fight against its authoritarian government. 

I am not one of the eight, but all of us who fight for democracy in Hong Kong are in danger from a Chinese government that is chasing us for showing that it has broken its promises to keep Hong Kong a vibrant and free city-state. 

I became an activist for democracy in Hong Kong at the age of 14, when I started participating in pro-democracy marches – hardly a radical thing to do. But eventually, when I was 21, I realized I had to leave Hong Kong, knowing that I would be arrested under the newly imposed National Security Law and face charges up to life in prison. Most of the friends I made throughout my activism have either fled or languish in jail. 

But leaving doesn’t solve the problem. The government of Hong Kong, directed by China, has sent people to harass us. The eight who are targeted are living in the U.K., the U.S., or Australia. Now, with the bounties, there will be more reason for people to stalk us. And I don’t see any evidence that the democracies that have provided refuge realize how serious this is. Instead of taking steps to hold China accountable, they are trying to create warmer relations. 

Four years ago, I was harassed and followed by Chinese spies in Boston, where I organized rallies in support of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement. Although one of the Chinese agents involved, a U.S. citizen, was recently indicted, more needs to be done. Many communities living overseas have endured constant surveillance and harassment by China’s 110 overseas secret police stations. China continues to deny their existence, and very few countries have made them shut down. The outposts of the Hong Kong government, the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Offices, located in 14 cities worldwide, have also been working closely with Chinese consulates to brush off their ongoing records of human rights violations in the city state while maintaining close relationships with world democracies.

It’s the first time Hong Kong has issued official arrest warrants on overseas activists, with bounty eight times more than it would pay for help in arresting a child rapist and three times more than it would offer for a murder. John Lee, the chief executive, said that the eight activists would be “pursued for life.”

Many Hong Kong activists fled Hong Kong in the past three years as the government jailed dissidents who voiced opposition to Beijing. Many have said publicly they will not return to Hong Kong. So why is the government placing these bounties?

The rationale likely rests in geopolitics. The list of wanted activists was evenly distributed among the U.S., the U.K., and Australia, all of which have begun re-engaging with China recently after three years of diplomatic freeze. It’s as if Hong Kong is saying, can we go this far? Further? What will you tolerate? It is testing these democracies, and they are letting China win. 

Despite China’s persistent repression of dissidents both within and beyond its borders, these countries have continued to prioritize improved ties and deeper economic interests over addressing human rights abuses. Instances of repression, such as the attack on Hong Kong protester Bob Chan in the Chinese consulate ground in Manchester, have not prompted strong action from the U.K. government. Attacks continue to happen against Hongkongers, including two who were recently kicked and manhandled by a group of pro-CCP activists at a rally in Southampton to mark the anniversary of the 2019 Hong Kong movement. Meanwhile in the U.S., the Biden administration has hinted its intention to invite the U.S.-sanctioned John Lee to attend the APEC Summit in San Francisco in November.

By neglecting China’s human rights abuses, countries are exacerbating the situation. If they fail to defend their residents and refuse to impose economic and political consequences on China, this stalking and harassment will persist. This lack of action will also set a dangerous precedent, raising the bar for accountability on human rights abusers, like Russia and Iran, and sending a message to the world that their countries are no longer safe for free speech.

The international community, including the countries in which the activists reside as well as all Interpol member states, should prioritize human rights in their policy toward China. Diplomatic engagements should not be pursued that compromise the security of its people.

So far, the U.K, the U.S., and Australia have done nothing to punish China or Hong Kong for this outrageous decision to hunt down people who have entered those countries legally, seeking refuge. It must do something, soon, or the next list will be far longer, and China will understand that it can pursue close relationships without upholding the democratic values of the West.

Frances Hui is the first public activist from Hong Kong to receive political asylum in the U.S. She continues her advocacy in Washington, D.C., at the Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation and We The Hongkongers.

end

CHINA/USA

Dangerous!! China thinking to replace the USA with the Gulf state monarchies as the Petrodollar scheme will end!

(Lifson/American Thinker)

China Is Moving In To Replace The US With Gulf Oil Monarchies

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 11:25 AM

Authored by Thomas Lifson via AmericanThinker.com,

It’s hard to overstate the potential impact of a move underway that – thanks to Biden’s catastrophic diplomacy – could result in China replacing the U.S. as a security guarantor with the petro-monarchies that control so much of the world’s oil reserves.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman welcomed Xi Jinping to Riyadh (YouTube screen grab).

Bloomberg reports:

Oil-rich gulf monarchies are leveraging their wealth to deepen ties with China amid anxiety about the future of their longstanding security partnership with the US.

Seven months after President Xi Jinping participated in the first China-Gulf summit in Riyadh, economic exchanges between the world’s second largest economy and nations like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been accelerating — moving well beyond crude purchases where Beijing has been dominant for years. 

One of the deals that could benefit from closer ties in the coming months is Chinese-owned seed giant Syngenta Group’s planned $9 billion Shanghai IPO. The state-backed company’s advisers have been having discussions with Middle Eastern sovereign funds including the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund about becoming cornerstone investors, people with knowledge of the matter have said.

The value of acquisitions and investments by Gulf companies in China has climbed more than 1,000% year-on-year to $5.3 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

For decades, the oil states of the Middle East have relied on the United States as their primary economic partner and security guarantor.  Their holdings of dollar-denominated U.S. debt and settlement of sales contracts in dollars keeps the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.  That status enables to U.S. to run massive deficits, print money to pay for them, and not suffer a foreign exchange crisis and severe devaluation.

China is currently suffering economic doldrums, probably in a recession with high youth unemployment, and the loss of markets and manufacturing investment as the U.S. and Europe are decoupling from the Chinese economy.  But the petro-monarchies, with their massive resources and substantial markets, could at least partially replace the Western powers and relieve domestic political pressure on Xi Jinping to behave himself better on the world stage.

Make no mistake: these economic considerations have a direct bearing on strategic military relations.  China would make every effort to leverage its increased economic and financial ties into deeper military relations, including the opening of military bases and a larger diplomatic, cultural, educational, and media relationship.  The ultimate aim would be the displace the United States as the strategic guarantor for the monarchies that control the export market for oil.

Biden’s virtue-signaling demonizing of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman over the Khashoggi assassination set off this decline in U.S. influence.  It had no upside.  Of course, killing and chopping opponents into pieces in a diplomatic enclave is deplorable, but great nations that aspire to be hegemonic learn to tolerate allies with less than spotless records.  Heck, we allied with the USSR when fighting Hitler.

Now, with U.S. military readiness declining; our conventional ammunition stocks depleted; and our military leadership focused on diversity, abortion access, and transsexual rights, we look like a declining force.  Who would want to bet his own regime’s stability on an alliance with such a weakening and decadent power?

The Saudis are not going to change their ways and will be ruthless in protecting their regime.  Many other nations see the U.S. as equally ruthless, rightly or wrongly.  The U.S. gained nothing except flattering commentary at home from some quarters when it went after MbS over Khashoggi.  Now relations are spiraling downward, and the logic behind that spiral extending and amplifying is substantial.  China and the Gulf monarchies have complementary strengths and needs.

With China the dominant power in the Middle East, if this keeps up, the world’s power structure will be very different, and China will call shots that a poorer and weaker U.S. will have no choice but to accept.

END

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY/UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Germany using the excuse of Ukraine to remilitarize itself.  It remembers clearly how the Red Army fought for and defeated Germany’s Konigsberg (today Russian exclave Kaliningrad),  Germany wants German territory returned to it lost after WW II

(Bradrakumar/Consortium News)

Remilitarized Germany Is Playing Long Game In Ukraine

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 02:00 AM

Authored by M.K. Bhadrakumar via Consortium News,

The hypothesis that the Anglo-Saxon axis is pivotal to the proxy war in Ukraine against Russia is only partly true. Germany is actually Ukraine’s second largest arms supplier, after the United States.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged a new arms package worth €700 million, including additional tanks, munitions and Patriot air defense systems at the NATO summit in Vilnius, putting Berlin, as he said, at the very forefront of military support for Ukraine. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stressed, “By doing this, we’re making a significant contribution to strengthening Ukraine’s staying power.” However, the pantomime playing out may have multiple motives. Fundamentally, Germany’s motivation is traceable to the crushing defeat by the Red Army and has little to do with Ukraine as such.German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and U.S. Ambassador to Germany Amy Gutmann, right, greeting U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin outside the German Defense Ministry in Berlin on Jan. 19. (DoD, Jack Sanders)

The Ukraine crisis has provided the context for accelerating Germany’s militarization. Meanwhile, revanchist feelings are rearing their head and there is a “bipartisan consensus” among Germany’s leading centrist parties — CDU, SPD and Green Party — in this regard. 

In an interview last weekend, the CDU’s leading foreign and defense expert Roderich Kiesewetter (an ex-colonel who headed the Association of Reservists of the Bundeswehr from 2011 to 2016) suggested that if conditions warrant in the Ukraine situation, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization should consider cutting off “Kaliningrad from the Russian supply lines. We see how Putin reacts when he is under pressure.”

Berlin is still smarting under the surrender of the ancient Prussian city of Königsberg [now Kaliningrad] in April 1945. 

Stalin ordered 1.5 million Soviet troops supported by several thousand tanks and aircraft to attack the crack Nazi Panzer divisions deeply entrenched in Königsberg. The capture of the heavily fortified stronghold of Königsberg by the Soviet army was celebrated in Moscow with an artillery salvo by 324 cannons firing 24 shells each.  

Nothing Forgotten in Berlin 

Evidently, Kiesewetter’s remarks show that nothing is forgotten or forgiven in Berlin even after eight decades. Thus, Germany is the Biden administration’s closest ally in the war against Russia.

The German government has stated its understanding for the Biden administration’s controversial decision to supply Ukraine with cluster ammunition. The government spokesman commented in Berlin, “We are certain that our US friends did not make their decision lightly, to deliver this sort of munition.” 

President Frank-Walter Steinmeier remarked, “In the current situation, one should not obstruct the USA.” Indeed, the top CDU figure, Kiesewetter, suggested in an interview with the Green Party-affiliated daily taz that Ukraine should be given “guarantees, and if necessary, even provided with nuclear assistance, as an intermediary step to NATO membership.”

Coinciding with the NATO summit in Vilnius on Tuesday and Wednesday, Rheinmetall, the great 135-year-old German arms manufacturing company, has disclosed that it is opening an armored vehicle plant in western Ukraine at an undisclosed location in the next 12 weeks.

To begin with, German Fuchs armored personnel carriers will be built and repaired while there are plans afoot to manufacture ammunition and possibly even air defense systems and tanks.

Rheinmetall’s CEO told CNN on Monday that like other Ukrainian arms factories, the new plant could be protected from Russian air attack. Germany has more than doubled the 2022 allocation of €2 billion for upgrading Ukraine’s armed forces. It now touches around €5.4 billion with further plans to increase to €10.5 billion.

Contending with Poland 

Now, is this all about Russia? Germany cannot be unaware that Ukraine has simply no hope on earth to defeat Russia militarily. Germany is playing the long game. It is creating equity in western Ukraine where it is not Russia but Poland that is its contender.

Ever since the Tsarist army advanced into Galicia in 1914, Russia has had a difficult history with Ukrainian nationalists. If the current war in Ukraine spreads to western Ukraine, that cannot be Russia’s choice but out of some necessity forced upon it.  

The Soviet victory in Ukraine in October 1944, the Red Army’s occupation of Eastern Europe and Allied diplomacy resulted in a redrawing of Poland’s western frontiers with Germany and Ukraine’s with Poland.

Simply put, with compensation of German territories in the west, Poland agreed to the cession of Volhynia and Galicia in western Ukraine; a mutual population exchange created for the first time in centuries a clear ethnic, as well as political, Polish-Ukrainian border. 

It is entirely conceivable that the ongoing Ukraine war will radically change the territorial boundaries of Ukraine in the east and south. Possibly, it can re-open the post-World War II settlement with regard to western Ukraine as well.

Russia has repeatedly warned that Poland aims to reverse the cession of Volhynia and Galicia in western Ukraine. Such a turn of events will most certainly bring to the fore the issue of the German territories that are part of Poland today. 

Perhaps, it was in anticipation of turbulence ahead that last October, eight months after the Russian intervention began in  February 2022, that Warsaw demanded WWII reparations from Berlin — an issue which Germany says was settled in 1990 — to the tune of €1.3 trillion.

Under the Potsdam Conference of 1945, the “former eastern territories of Germany” comprising nearly one quarter (23.8 percent) of the Weimar Republic with the majority was ceded to Poland. The remainder, consisting of northern East Prussia including the German city of Königsberg (renamed Kaliningrad), was allocated to the Soviet Union.

Make no mistake about the importance of the eastern border for German culture and politics. Indeed, there is always something volatile about a “handicapped” Great Power when a whole new intensity appears in political, economic and historical circumstances, which prompts those in power to turn ideas into reality, and revanchist and imperialistic discourses that were quietly but steadily streaming below the surface of the carefully considered diplomatic efforts begin to probe pan-nationalist expansion.Königsberg — current day Kaliningrad — in 1938. via Wiki Commons

In retrospect, Germany’s — in particular, then foreign minister and current President Steinmeier’s — diabolical role to align Germany with the neo-Nazi elements during the regime change in Kiev in 2014 and the subsequent German perfidy in the implementation of the Minsk Agreement (“Steinmeier formula”), as admitted as recently in February by former Chancellor Angela Merkel should not be forgotten. 

Suffice it to say, even as Russia is winning the Ukraine war, the concern of the German foreign policy makers once again faces the need to redefine what was German.

Thus, the war in Ukraine is only the means to an end. Recent reports suggest that Berlin may be moving, finally, toward meeting Ukraine’s pending demand for Taurus cruise missiles with a range exceeding 500 kms and unique “multi-effect war head” that can be a game changer in the combat dynamics on the battlefield and create the prerequisites for victory. 

Equally, German soldiers already comprise about half of the NATO battlegroup already present in Lithuania. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said two weeks ago while on a visit to Vilnius that Germany is preparing the infrastructure to permanently base 4,000 soldiers (“a robust brigade”) to Lithuania so as to have the capability to maintain military flexibility at the eastern flank. The decision has support from both Germany’s governing coalition and its main opposition.

The CDU foreign policy expert and member of the Bundestag, Kiesewetter called the idea of establishing a German base in the Baltics a “decision of reason and reliability.”

Indeed, there have been past attempts, historically speaking, to create German rule in the Baltics based on revisionist claims towards the new states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania where German colonists had settled as far back as in the 12th and 13th centuries.

M.K. Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat. He was India’s ambassador to Uzbekistan and Turkey. Views are personal.

END

GERMANY

With over one million migrants, Germany is becoming a failed state

(ReMix)

Germany: After Berlin Pool Closes Over Sexual Assaults From Migrants, Lifeguard Association President Warns “Violence Against Pool Staff Is Everywhere”

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 05:00 AM

By John Cody of Remix News

After the Columbiabad swimming pool closed down in the German capital of Berlin, the issue of migrant violence and sexual assaults at the location has sparked a nationwide media conversation but also led to warnings that this one pool is hardly an exception.

According to German newspaper Welt, outbreaks of violence in Berlin’s open-air pools are currently particularly frequent, but lifeguards and visitors in other cities also report violence and aggressive guests. In Mannheim, there was a mass brawl in June involving more than 40 people. In the Karlsruhe district, a pool attendant was attacked by a group and beaten so badly that he ended up in the hospital.

“Violence against pool staff is everywhere,” reports Peter Harzheim, president of the Federal Association of German Pool Attendants (BDS). The vast majority of swimming pools continue to be peaceful places. However, he said that complaints about misconduct by some bathers are increasing nationwide.

As Remix News previously reported, the Columbiabad public bath in Berlin’s Neukölln borough closed after staff from the location were out “sick from stress” in such numbers that the swimming pool could no longer operate.

“The number of incidents and the behavior of some bathers are an extreme burden for our very committed employees in the pools,” said the municipal agency that runs the complex, and many others across the German capital, in a statement. “This is not sustainable in the long run.”

Then, in a letter to German newspaper Tagesspiegel, pool staff described vandalism, physical attacks and harassment from “Arab migrants and Chechens,” with the staff writing a letter describing “feces smeared on the walls,” girls having their bikinis ripped off, and physical attacks against swimmers and staff.

Harzheim warns of a dangerous development in German society.

“Where many cultural milieus clash, it can explode,” says Harzheim. When asked by Welt newspaper, the Association of Towns and Municipalities also reported isolated problems in large cities, while the German Lifesaving Society (DLRG) reports that volunteers at bathing lakes are also increasingly exposed to verbal attacks.

“They get insulted, for example, when they warn against going into the water in dangerous conditions,” says spokesman Martin Holzhause. “That’s when one or the other surely asks himself why he’s actually doing this voluntarily. “

“Pool supervisors are also trained in dealing with attacks during their training,” said the BDS president. He described a job that features poor pay, work on the weekends, and job insecurity due to the threat of pool closures.

Harzheim has been outspoken about the issues facing Germany’s beloved swimming pools for some time, especially as violence and sexual assaults have increased.

Following shocking mass brawls at Berlin swimming pools in 2022, Harzheim said he can no longer recommend that families visit pools on weekends.

While speaking to Bild TV, Harzheim said he would be “acting irresponsibly” if he attended an outdoor pool with his own three grandchildren.

Germany’s interior minister, Nancy Faeser, has backed a permanent police presence at troubled swimming pools, but critics have questioned why these swimming pools need to become a “police state” in order to function.

END

EU

This will hurt the average European citizen as Europe agrees to remove energy support stimmies to cut their budgetary deficits

(zerohedge)

Europe Agrees To Remove Energy Support Stimmies To Cut Budget Deficits

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 04:15 AM

In a move that could send Europe into an even a deep recessionary tailspin and crush the continent’s long-suffering consumers, should Europe’s energy problems extend into the new year – which they almost certainly will – last Thursday Euro zone finance ministers agreed to withdraw energy support measures to their economies and use the savings to cut budget deficits and help the European Central Bank curb inflation, Reuters reported.

The ministers also agreed that “gradual, determined and realistic” fiscal consolidation is warranted to rebuild fiscal buffers after high public spending during the pandemic and the energy price crisis as they said that structural reforms were needed.

“Absent renewed energy price shocks, we will in the euro area strive to wind down energy support measures, using the related savings to reduce government deficits, as soon as possible in 2023 and 2024,” the FinMin statement said.

“We will achieve the necessary overall restrictive fiscal stance in the euro area for 2024 by the implementation of the fiscal recommendations by all euro area Member States,” said the statement, which was adopted by the ministers on Thursday.

The statement is in line with the recommendations of the European Fiscal Board, an independent advisory body to the European Commission, which said in late June that the euro zone should tighten fiscal policy next year by more than currently planned to help the ECB fight inflation and prevent interest rates rising too high.

While consolidation has already started, the effect of persistent inflation and higher borrowing costs will need to be addressed to reduce deficits and debt ratios over time, the draft statement said.

“A strategy of determined, gradual, and realistic fiscal consolidation is warranted to strengthen sustainability, to rebuild fiscal buffers to deliver higher sustainable growth,” the statement said.

“At the same time implementing structural reforms … remains an essential goal,” it said.

Europe’s generous fiscal stimulus has directly interfered with the ECB’s aggressive monetary policy tightening, and – despite the loud laments of European central bankers – helped push inflation to 5.4% even though the continent is in a recession, cementing a period of brutal stagflation. Ironically, while European politicians may have finally realized they are working against the central banks, their decision to dramatically slash energy stimulus will lead to howls of outrage the moment gas and electricity prices spike again, which – with the geopolitical situation still a tinderbox – they are certain to do.

In fact, yesterday morning’s attack on the Kerch bridge linking Crimea to Russia by Ukraine’s Security Service, which prompted Russia to pull out of the Black Sea grain deal, has already sent wheat prices soaring…

…. guaranteeing sharply higher food prices in the immediate future.

END

SWEDEN/TURKEY/NATO

Down goes the Turkish lira as the Swedish accession deal into NATO still faces hurdles

(Gallagher/Naked Capitalism)

Recork The Champagne: Sweden’s NATO Accession Deal With Turkiye Still Faces Hurdles

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Conor Gallagher via NakedCapitalism.com,

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave NATO the public relations boost it so desperately wanted during the Vilnius summit.

First, he released the neo-Nazi Azov commanders back to Ukraine in violation of the agreement with Russia. Then, he agreed to some sort of deal for Sweden’s entry into NATO.

The contents of that deal still aren’t entirely clear, but now that the PR euphoria has subsided and the summit has ended, it looks like the details still need to be ironed out as the same old stumbling blocks remain for Sweden’s accession.

Stockholm says it will meet Turkiye’s demands after Ankara gives the final go-ahead to NATO accession while Erdogan wants that order reversed and has now pushed off a vote in Turkiye’s parliament until October.

After Sweden’s prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg met with Erdogan, Sweden declared that it will “actively support efforts to rejuvenate Turkiye’s EU accession process, including modernizing the EU-Turkiye Customs Union and visa liberalization.”

But there still appears to be disagreements over Turkiye’s demand that Stockholm must deport individuals Turkiye accuses of involvement in terrorism, including followers of US-based Sunni cleric Fethullah Gulen, as well as groups and individuals allegedly linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party.

Erdogan said “a bilateral security mechanism will be established at the ministerial level and we will increase our cooperation and collaboration in our fight against the terrorist organizations.” That could already be running into trouble. From Turkish Minute:

Sweden’s top court has blocked the extradition of two people wanted by Turkiye for involvement in the faith-based Gülen movement, saying their actions are not considered a crime in the Scandinavian country, Agence France-Presse reported. The ruling comes just days after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced he was ready to allow Sweden to join the military alliance.

However on Wednesday, Erdoğan said Turkiye would not be able to ratify Sweden’s NATO candidacy until at least October, when the Turkish parliament is due to re-open after its summer break. In Sweden, the government makes the final decision on extradition requests but cannot grant a request to another state if the Supreme Court rules against it.

There are also questions about the US holding up its end of the bargain. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez said he is in talks with the Biden administration about the hold he has on future U.S. sales of F-16 fighter jets to Ankara.

According to the Associated Press, “in order to get Menendez on board, the U.S. offered to provide Greece with unspecified tactical weaponry to defend from any future Turkish incursion, according to a Democratic senator, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.” So should the deals go through, the US weapons industry clearly comes out a winner.

So Erdogan is putting off the vote in the Turkish parliament (he could extend the parliament’s session if he really wanted the vote to happen now) until he sees the movement he wants on the deals with Sweden and Washington. And the F-16 sales might not be all that Biden offered. According to Seymour Hersh:

The public story for Biden’s face-saving coup was talk about agreeing to sell American F-16 fighter bombers to Turkiye.

I have been told a different, secret story about Erdogan’s turnabout: Biden promised that a much-needed $11-13 billion line of credit would be extended to Turkiye by the International Monetary Fund. “Biden had to have a victory and Turkiye is in acute financial stress,” an official with direct knowledge of the transaction told me. Turkiye lost 100,000 people in the earthquake last February, and has four million buildings to rebuild. “What could be better than Erdogan”—under Biden’s tutelage, the official asked, “finally having seen the light and realizing he is better off with NATO and Western Europe?” Reporters were told, according to the New York Times, that Biden called Erdogan while flying to Europe on Sunday. Biden’s coup, the Times reported, would enable him to say that Putin got “exactly what he did not want: an expanded, more direct NATO alliance.” There was no mention of bribery.

The IMF deal would be quite the shift for Erdogan who attacked his election opponent for wanting to cut deals with Western financial institutions. On the other hand, Turkiye certainly needs economic help, as it has been struggling with runaway inflation, a growing budget deficit, and dwindling reserves. While Erdogan won reelection, if he and his AKP ruling party can’t return to their old ways of delivering economic growth and rising living standards, they face the prospects of internal upheaval and a rude awakening in future elections.

The government-run Turkish Statistical Institute reported last week that the annual inflation rate was 38 percent in June (the independent inflation group ENAG put the figure at 109 percent). Erdogan and his ruling party a receiving criticism for increasing taxes 2 percent on a range of goods and services, including basics like toilet paper, detergents, and diapers

The government also hiked the tax collected from lending institutions on consumer loans. The moves are part of an effort to reduce the country’s ballooning budget deficit.

According to Reuters, Turkiye “recorded a deficit of 263.6 billion lira ($10.21 billion) in the first five months of the year, compared to 124.6 billion lira a year ago due to increased spending ahead of May elections and the impact of February’s devastating earthquakes in southern Turkiye.”

There has been some triumphant speculation from organizations like CNN and the Atlantic Council that Erdogan is now taking Turkiye fully into the Western camp and turning his back on Russia. This is inaccurate and misses the fact that Erdogan continually plays this game of trying to extract as many concessions as possible from each side.

Turkiye is still not opening the Black Sea to western warships. Turkiye will continue helping Russia evade sanctions (Turkish exports to Russia have jumped since the start of the Ukraine war – from $2.6 billion in the first half of 2022 to $4.9 billion over the same period this year.) Turkiye continues to have close energy ties with Russia. A more accurate take from Al Monitor:

In truth, none of this amounts to a pivot away from Russia any more than it does to a reset with the West. It’s just the latest retuning of Erdogan’s unique balancing act in which the Turkish leader navigates Ankara’s relationships in ways that he believes best benefit Turkiye’s interests and above all his own political survival. Turkiye’s flailing economy remains Erdogan’s top headache ahead of municipal elections that are scheduled to be held in March 2024.

The facade of improved relations with the West is meant to draw back Western investors even as thousands of political prisoners languish in Turkish prisons in defiance of European Court of Human Rights rulings that are binding for Ankara.

Should the Sweden deal go through, it likely won’t be long until the West is enraged again with Turkiye, as NATO will soon be pushing for more. Fatih Yurtsever, a former naval officer in the Turkish Armed Forces, writes:

Some points in the Vilnius communiqué may compel Turkiye to make some challenging decisions concerning Russia and Iran. Item 79 of the declaration reads: “The Black Sea region is of strategic importance for the Alliance. This is further highlighted by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. We underline our continued support to Allied regional efforts aimed at upholding security, safety, stability, and freedom of navigation in the Black Sea region including, as appropriate, through the 1936 Montreux Convention. We will further monitor and assess developments in the region and enhance our situational awareness, with a particular focus on the threats to our security and potential opportunities for closer cooperation with our partners in the region, as appropriate.”

Turkiye has traditionally resisted a substantial NATO presence in the Black Sea, especially one involving deploying warships that could potentially antagonize Russia. It has argued that security in the Black Sea should be the prerogative of the littoral states alone, asserting that any external intervention could jeopardize its security in the region. Moreover, Turkiye has interpreted the Montreux Convention’s provisions concerning the passage of non-littoral warships through the straits in a way that avoids provoking Russia. Nonetheless, as suggested in this article, it may become increasingly challenging for Turkiye to maintain this policy. A shift in Turkiye’s Black Sea policy favoring NATO’s interests could potentially precipitate a crisis in Turkish-Russian relations.

Another point of contention that could lead to a crisis between Turkiye and Russia in the near future concerns Iran.

The deepening of Russian-Iranian relations, marked by Iran’s assistance in helping Russia circumvent sanctions during the Russia-Ukraine crisis and its sale of unmanned aerial vehicles to Russia, has propelled their relationship to a strategic level. However, members expressed clear concerns about Iran’s nuclear program for the first time at the NATO summit. The statement “We reiterate our clear determination that Iran must never develop a nuclear weapon. We remain deeply concerned about Iran’s escalation of its nuclear program. We call on Iran to fulfill its legal obligations under its Non-Proliferation Treaty-required safeguards agreement and political commitments regarding nuclear non-proliferation without further delay …” demonstrates NATO’s discomfort with this relationship. The US and Israel could use this clause to initiate a limited air operation against Iran. Turkiye’s reaction to such an operation could instigate a crisis with Russia and Iran.

END

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

RUSSIA/BRICS MEETING AUG 22-24

Fascinating:  Putin wants to go in person to our famous BRICS August 22 meeting even though an arrest warrant is out for the Russian president.

(zerohedge)

Putin Rejects South Africa’s Request To Not Attend BRICS Summit Over ICC Arrest Warrant

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 02:45 AM

Things are getting awkward and coming to a head as BRICS countries are now just weeks away from the Aug. 22-24 major summit in Johannesburg, South Africa – and Russian President Vladimir Putin is still committed to attending in person.

South Africa had even mulled requesting that Moscow opt for Zoom instead, which would have without doubt been taken as an insult by the Russian side. “President Putin will be asked by South Africa to attend a key summit via Zoom and not in person after Pretoria sought legal advice about its obligations to arrest the Russian leader, who has been indicted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court [ICC],” the Sunday Times reported in May.

Most recently, the South African government has simply politely asked Putin not to come, something which the Kremlin swiftly rejected.Vladimir Putin speaking with Cyril Ramaphosa in Sochi in 2019, via Sky News

The host country for the BRICS summit is under pressure as a signatory of the Rome Statute that governs the ICC. Given the arrest warrant outstanding against Putin, South African authorities are expected by the West at act.

South Africa’s deputy president Paul Mashatile said in a recent statement, “We understand we are bound by the Rome Statute but we can’t invite someone and then you arrest them. You can understand our dilemma.”

“We would be happy if he [Putin] doesn’t come,” he followed with. A suggestion to hold the entire summit virtually has been rejected by some of the largest BRICS countries, including India and Brazil. 

The Kremlin has stuck by its position that South Africa has clear obligations and has even given Putin personal assurances:

A Kremlin-linked official told The Moscow Times that South Africa provided “security guarantees” for Putin during Ramaphosa’s visit to St. Petersburg in June.

The schedule and logistics are still being worked out, according to reports, but South Africa’s president has been consistent in saying it will be face to face and that Putin hasn’t wavered on his intent to attend.

“There were rumors that this too could become an online summit – no. It is going to be face to face, eyeball to eyeball,” Ramaphosa said.

While Ramaphosa has been seen as sympathetic to Putin, it has been South Africa’s leading opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), which has pressured the government to arrest the Russian leader if he arrives for the summit.

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Not good!! Russia pummels southern Ukraine in retribution strikes on the Crimea Bridge.

(zerohedge)

Russia Pummels Southern Ukraine In ‘Retribution Strikes’ For Crimea Bridge Explosion

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 11:45 AM

Moscow had vowed revenge for the Kerch Bridge ‘terror attack’ which happened Monday, and killed two Russian civilians and temporarily shut down traffic.

It now appears to be carrying out that retaliation campaign in what the defense ministry (MoD) called a “strike of retribution” against facilities in southern Ukraine. Image purportedly shows the aftermath of a strike on July 17, 2023, on the Kerch Bridge. via Newsweek

The bridge attack was reportedly conducted by sea drones, and so the Russian MoD said Tuesday it launched aerial drones and missiles against maritime drone factories “as well as a ship repair plant that was manufacturing the drones,” according to a statement. 

The strikes including destroying fuel storage facilities near Odesa and Mykolaiv, per internatinoal reports. Ukraine has confirmed multiple waves of attack drones as well as six Kalibr cruise missiles which were fired at Odesa. 

The latest Kerch Bridge attack destroyed a Russian family’s vehicle as it was crossing the bridge. Two parents were killed, and their daughter wounded, according to official Russian statements.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials have claimed responsibility for the attack, per CNN: 

A Ukrainian security official has claimed Kyiv’s responsibility for an attack on the bridge linking the annexed Crimean peninsula to the Russian mainland – a vital supply line for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine and a personal project for President Vladimir Putin.

The nearly 12-mile crossing, also known as the Kerch Bridge, is the longest in Europe and holds huge strategic and symbolic importance for Moscow. Monday’s attack on the bridge was the second since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, after a fuel tanker exploded while crossing it in October.

The report confirms that “A source in Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) told CNN this attack was a joint operation of the SBU and Ukraine’s naval forces.”

“The source spoke on condition of anonymity because they had not received authorization to speak on the record,” the report added.

With Kiev’s counteroffensive largely stalled, there will likely be an uptick in attacks on both Crimea and within Russian territory. Moscow has seen these increasingly brazen operations, including an assassination campaign targeting influential Russians, as acts of desperation while the counteroffensive gets beaten back.

end

end 

IRAN/USA

Iran continues to harass ships travelling through the Gulf. The latest incident has the Iranians firing on a vessel

(Roberts/Epoch)

US Deploying Fighter Jets, Navy Destroyer To Gulf After Iran Attempts To Seize Oil Tankers

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 02:05 PM

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

The United States is sending fighter jets as well as a Navy destroyer to the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman in order to bolster security and deter threats to commercial ships, the Defense Department announced on July 17.

Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said in a press briefing that the F-35 fighters and F-16 fighters and the destroyer USS Thomas Hudner, which was previously in the Red Sea, will be deployed to the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility.

This, she said, will help “defend U.S. interests and safeguard freedom of navigation in the region.”

The increased presence is in response to a “number of recent, alarming events in the Strait of Hormuz,” Ms. Singh said, pointing to two separate incidents earlier this month during which the Iranian navy attempted to illegally seize two oil tankers in waters between Iran and Oman.

One of those ships—the Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker TRF Moss—was initially approached by an Iranian naval vessel on July 5 and harassed, according to a statement from U.S. Naval Forces.

However, the Iranian ship left after a U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer, the USS McFaul, arrived on scene, the Navy said.

Approximately three hours later, the oil tanker Richmond Voyager—which was flying under the flag of the Bahamas—was also approached by an Iranian naval vessel while it was more than 20 miles off the coast of Muscat in Oman and transiting international waters toward the Arabian Sea, officials said.

Damage sustained by M/T Richmond Voyager after personnel from an Iranian naval vessel fired multiple long bursts of rounds from small arms and crew-served weapons during an attempt to unlawfully seize the commercial tanker, according to U.S. Navy, in the Gulf of Oman, in a handout photo provided by U.S. Navy on July 5, 2023. (U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/U.S. 5th Fleet/Handout via Reuters)

Iran Opens Fire on Vessel

The Iranian vessel, according to the U.S. Navy, had tried to hail the commercial tanker to stop; at one point firing multiple shots at the vessel from both small arms and crew-served weapons.

No casualties were reported and the Richmond Voyager sustained no significant damage, officials said. However, several rounds hit the ship’s hull near the crew’s living spaces.

Much like the first incident, the Iranian navy vessel finally left after the USS McFaul arrived on the scene, the Navy said.

The Strait of Hormuz separates Iran from the Arabian Peninsula and roughly 21 percent of the world’s oil supply flows through it, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

According to the Navy, the United States and its partners increased the rotation of ships and aircraft patrolling the Strait of Hormuz in May amid an uptick in Iranian merchant vessel seizures.

Missiles displayed in the Iranian capital Tehran in an undated file photo. (Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images)

Increased Attacks on Ships

A-10 attack aircraft have also been patrolling the skies in the area while the McFaul has remained in the Gulf region to bolster protection among shipping lanes.

Despite an increased U.S. presence, Iran has harassed, attacked, or seized roughly 20 international merchant vessels since 2021, and poses a “clear threat” to regional maritime security and the global economy, the Navy said.

Relations between both Washington and Tehran have been deteriorating amid reports that the latter is continuing to bolster its nuclear program and enrich uranium close to weapons-grade levels.

Washington has been trying to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, for months in an effort to prevent Iran from bolstering its nuclear program but has so far not reached a resolution with Tehran.

“In light of this continued threat and in coordination with our partners and allies, the department is increasing our presence and ability to monitor the strait and surrounding waters.,” Ms. Singh said Monday.

“We call upon Iran to immediately cease these destabilizing actions that threaten the free flow of commerce through this strategic waterway, of which the world depends on for more than 1/5 of the world’s oil supply,” she added.

GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES

Wuhan Lab Leak “So Friggin’ Likely” – New Slack Messages Reveal Massive Media Deception By Fauci & ‘Scientists’

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 03:00 PM

Even credentialed scientists began to be disciplined by sites like Facebook, which took direction from government health authorities and prohibited statements about the virus being “man-made or manufactured.”

There was also an impact on the press, especially after the popular site Zero Hedge was removed from Twitter after an article suggesting a scientist in Wuhan was behind the outbreak.

It later turned out that Farrar referenced the Zero Hedge article in a letter to Fauci not long after the site was suspended.

*  *  *

Authored by Matt Taibbi, Leighton Woodhouse, Alex Gutentag, Michael Shellenberger via Racket News (truncated, read the full version at Racket).

On February 5th, 2020, as a small group of scientists were crafting a Nature magazine paper that would become the basis of years of reports insisting Covid-19 had natural origins, one of the co-authors, Tulane’s Dr. Robert Garry, wrote in group email:

Accidental release is a scenario many will not be comfortable with, but cannot be dismissed out of hand.

As detailed in an explosive Public story today, Garry’s thinking changed suddenly when then-New York Times reporter Donald McNeil asked the next day: “Is there any possibility that it could be from the Wuhan lab?”

Garry warned McNeil was “credible,” but “like any reporter can be mislead [sic],” cheering colleague Dr. Andrew Rambaut’s scientific version of a non-denial denial as a “good honest response.”

Last week, House members investigating origins of Covid-19 accidentally released a trove of Slack chats and emails between the authors of Nature’s seminal paper from March 17, 2020, The Proximal Origin of SARS-CoV-2. The Proximal Origin paper delivered a single line that for years helped authorities slam a lid on theories of human intervention in Covid-19: “It is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory manipulation.”

Chats showing Proximal Origins authors saying things like “The truth will never come out (if lab escape is the truth)” were published first by independent researcher Francisco Del Asis of the independent investigatory group DRASTIC, after which the story was picked up by Ryan Grim of The Intercept. From there, health officials did their best to ignore the material — “Many of them remained silent with this revelation,” is how De Asis puts it — almost as if they were waiting for another shoe to drop.

That other shoe is dropping. Public and Racket last week obtained a full complement of the “Proximal Origins” communications examined by the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, revealing a story far worse than previously believed. While today’s Public story details the unprecedented scientific cover-up, the letters and chats examined here at Racket show how health officials and scientists constructed perhaps the most impactful media deception of modern times, exceeding even the WMD fiasco both in scale and brazen intentionality. Because House investigators uncovered such a wealth of material, some of the Proximal Origin communications — which shed light on other Covid-related controversies — will be addressed in a second part of this series later this week. For now, however, the degree to which these communications blow up years of news stories stands out.

The released communications mainly center around four of the five Proximal Origin authors: the aforementioned Dr. Rambaut of the University of Edinburgh, Tulane’s Dr. Garry, Scripps Research Professor Dr. Kristian Andersen, and University of Sydney Virologist Edward “Eddie” Holmes. There are also email communications with the fifth author, Columbia’s Dr. Ian Lipkin, who is not on the Slack chats but does figure in the story.

The core four on the Slack chat — Andersen, Garry, Rambaut, and Holmes — never appear far from thoughts about the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) and famed scientist Shi Zhengli. Affectionately dubbed “Bat Woman” by Chinese colleagues, Shi received grants to research bat viruses, including a recent one called “Understanding the Risk of Bat Coronavirus Emergence” in which she partnered with Peter Daszak of the U.S-based EcoHealth Alliance on so-called gain-of-function experimentation.

At one point, Andersen complains about containment procedures at the WIV, noting, as biosafety expert James Le Duc would write in an email later that year, that the facility was conducting very dangerous experiments as Biosafety Level 3 (BSL-3), while the higher BSL-4 would normally be considered necessary. “I’m all for GOF experiments, I think they’re really important,” Andersen writes. “However performing these in BSL-3 (or less) is just completely nuts!”

Andersen goes on to say he’s “evolved” on the question of gain-of-function research, saying he’s not sure if such knowledge is “actionable,” while “of course being exceptionally dangerous. It only takes one mistake.”

It later came out that WIV was performing some of its experiments at an even lower level. “Keep in mind that WIV actually performed a lot of their coronavirus work at BSL2, which is what ultimately prompted Ian Lipkin to change his mind,” says DRASTIC founder, referring to comments by Lipkin to McNeil in May of 2021, saying “My view has changed.”

The core four also repeatedly pored over the problem posed by the “furin cleavage site,” a distinctive feature of the Covid-19 genetic sequence. As is now known to the general public thanks again to the digging of the DRASTIC group, which leaked the material in the fall of 2021, researchers at the University of North Carolina led by Dr. Ralph Baric had sent a proposal to the Pentagon seeking to introduce “human-specific cleavage sites” into bat coronaviruses, for a program called DEFUSE. Baric and Shi had worked together on more than one occasion, and even co-authored a paper in 2015 demonstrating that a coronavirus spike protein can infect human cells.

In any case, with these and other issues in mind, all five scientists express belief that escape from the Wuhan lab was at least possible, if not probable:

• Andersen: “The lab escape version of this is so friggin’ likely because they were already doing this work…
• Garry: “The major hangup I have is the polybasic cleavahe [sic] site… it’s not really a natural process.” Also: “It’s not crackpot to suggest this could have happened given the GoF research we know is happening.” 
• Lipkin: “[A draft of the paper] does not eliminate the possibility of inadvertent release following adaptation through selection in culture at the institute in Wuhan. Given the scale of the bat CoV research pursued there… we have a nightmare of circumstantial evidence to assess.”
• Holmes (replying to Lipkin): “I agree… Seems to have been pre-adapted for human spread since the get go. It’s the epidemiology that I find most worrying.”
• Rambaut: “I am quite convinced it has been put there by evolution (whether natural selection or artificial).”

*  *  *

As detailed in Public, the Proximal Origin authors who initially discussed lab escape in such a casual manner appeared to have a change of heart after a February 3rd conference call that included the likes of Dr. Anthony Fauci, then-NIH Head Francis Collins, and Dr. Jeremy Farrar of the Wellcome Trust (and now the WHO). Though he was CDC chief at the time, Redfield was excluded. “I should have been invited,” he said, but “I didn’t find out about these phone calls until the Freedom of Information came out,” referencing a FOIA-based report released by Buzzfeed over a year later.

From that point forward, references by scientists to “lab escape” became less frequent, with some of the Proximal Origin authors claiming to be impressed by various developments, including data sets about mutations in pangolins. However, scientists were clearly more moved by internal politics in correspondence with figures like Farrar, who complained questions about pandemic origin had “gathered considerable momentum not in social media, but increasingly among some scientists, in mainstream media, and among politicians.”

Anxious to please, Holmes at one point went as far as to say about a draft of the paper, “Jeremy Farrar and Francis Collins are very happy. Works for me.” This feels significant among other things because Andersen testified that when Republicans claimed the Proximal Origins authors “sent a draft to Drs. Fauci and Collins” and that “prior to final publication… the paper was sent to Dr. Fauci for editing and approval,” Andersen said, “These statements are false.”

Andersen supported the idea of writing the final Nature draft so as not to leave any room for speculation about lab origin. “I believe that publishing something that is open-ended could backfire at this stage,” he wrote, conceding also at another point that “Our main work over the last couple weeks has been focused on trying to disprove any type of lab theory.” On February 8th, Andersen said, “We should all just stay on Slack, that’s what we should do — and not use email.” In a February 12th letter to Nature virology editor Clare Thomas, he went so far as to describe their proposed paper as having been “prompted by Jeremy Farrar, Tony Fauci, and Francis Collins,” only after which did he list the actual authors:

By February 27, 2020, Andersen told Nature editors the virus “does have natural origin,” and by the next day, Rambaut was referring in Slack to “lab origin conspiracy loons.”

In one key email early in the process, Andersen complained about attention from the press, saying the “idea of engineering and bioweapon is definitely not going away.” While “there might be a time where we need to tackle that more directly,” he said, “I’ll let the likes of Jeremy and Tony figure out how to do that.”

*  *  *

The list of instances in these chats and emails in which the key authorities on Covid’s origins express doubts about theories that would go on to be embraced by officialdom for years is too long to fully catalog here, but for example: the authors seemed unanimous in their assessment that the so-called “wet market” was an unlikely crime scene. “No way the selection could occur in the market,” says Holmes at one point. Garry agrees and says, “Where would you get intense enough transmission… to generate and pass on the furin site insertion?” Rambaut says, “That’s the million dollar question,” and goes on to suggest not “raccoon dogs” or “palm civets,” but ferrets. “I could believe ferrets,” quips Andersen.

It’s with the publication of The Proximal Origin of SARS CoV-2 on March 17th that the unprecedented campaign of media deception really begins. The primary authorities on the question of whether or not the virus was the result of “laboratory manipulation” now turtled, saying little, while other media figures and politicians on a near-constant basis referred to the paper as the authority on the matter, suppressing questions about the pandemic’s origin.

The “lab leak theory” became infamous in mainstream circles among other things because Donald Trump seemed to blame China for the mess, using terms like “Kung Flu,” and secondarily because it appeared to implicate a neoliberal hero, Dr. Anthony Fauci, who stepped into the shoes of Robert Mueller as the favored leading man of the mainstream press. Fauci too had votive candles made with his image, enjoyed Nicolle Wallace gushing she was a “Fauci groupie,” and got to watch SNL do regular “Fauci cold opens,” in which the slight bureaucrat was depicted swatting away bras thrown at him by adoring fans, or being asked by morons if girls can get pregnant in the sky. The attention clearly got to Fauci’s head, because he soon began to write his own satirical material, telling Chuck Todd that attacks on him were “attacks on science”:

*  *  *

The first major coverage development after the March 17, 2020 publication was subtle. While the Nature team merely said they found no evidence of lab escape, headlines soon flowed suggesting something far more affirmative. “COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic has a natural origin,” declared Science Daily, the same day Proximal Origin was published.

Moreover, while the Proximal Origin authors could only say lab origin was “improbable,” legacy media outlets soon after began using the report to assert something far stronger that the report explicitly didn’t exactly say. “No, the new coronavirus wasn’t created in a lab, scientists say,” announced the CBC on March 26, 2020.

Crucially also, fact-checking authorities like Politifact began denouncing the concept as “conspiracy theory” and rating people who suggested the virus was “man-made” using absolute terms like “false” or “debunked.” It wasn’t until over a year later, as federal agencies like the Department of Energy and the FBI began concluding lab origin was at least possible if not likely, that PolitiFact began to correct itself.

Particularly in 2020, scientists all over the world were rebuked, removed from the Internet, and in some cases fired for spreading the “conspiracy theory” that parts of the Covid-19 genetic sequence suggested laboratory origin.

For a certain type of grant-dependent intellectual, a message was sent not only by the Nature paper published in March, but by an open letter put out weeks before and signed by 27 prominent scientists in the prominent journal Lancet. The message got even louder when Andersen and Garry were two of seven researchers to receive an $8.9 million grant from Fauci’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).

*  *  *

Even credentialed scientists began to be disciplined by sites like Facebook, which took direction from government health authorities and prohibited statements about the virus being “man-made or manufactured.” There was also an impact on the press, especially after the popular site Zero Hedge was removed from Twitter after an article suggesting a scientist in Wuhan was behind the outbreak. It later turned out that Farrar referenced the Zero Hedge article in a letter to Fauci not long after the site was suspended.

With a few notable exceptions, nearly everyone in the mainstream press community steered clear of any investigation of the possibility of lab origin for Covid-19, for several reasons. One key one was that such theories were coded early on as “right-wing” or even racist. “I was publicly libeled as a racist sinophobe,” says Deigin of DRASTIC, “and of course ridiculed as a crackpot conspiracist by countless virologists and their fanboys.” Prominent figures on channels like MSNBC hammered the idea that “lab leak” was right-wing lunacy, with Nicolle Wallace calling it “one of Trumpworld’s most favorite conspiracy theories,” while Fareed Zakaria in the Washington Post announced, “The far right has now found its own virus conspiracy theory.”

However, in 2021, both the FBI and the Department of Energy issued reports within government that either pointed toward lab escape or allowed it as a strong possibility. The public was not told of these developments, and instead had to watch in confusion as fact-checking authorities and politicians began reversing themselves on this question, with no obvious reason. In May, 2021, Fauci in particular shocked many when he appeared at, of all places, a “fact-checking conference” sponsored by the Poynter Institute, one of the sponsors of Politifact, and suddenly said he was “not convinced” Covid-19 developed naturally:

Now, two years later, we’re finding that the authors of the Proximal Origin paper (all of whom refused comment to Racket and Public, by the way, as did Farrar and Collins) were having many of the same thoughts as academics and pundits dismissed for years as crackpots, racists, and traitors. I asked Deigin if he felt vindicated. “I do somewhat,” he said. “The Slack messages confirm what we long suspected.”

It has to be reiterated that these documents still don’t prove that the virus escaped from the Wuhan Institute, or that American scientists were implicated in the episode. What the documents do show, however, is that both scientists and journalists abandoned their traditional mission to keep their minds open and consider all reasonable evidence without fear of political considerations, in favor of a new discipline that openly admitted political factors and sought a “single message” over free-ranging inquiry. The few mainstream journalists who continued to push this story, like Josh Rogin at the Washington Post, should be commended, but as a whole, both the media business and the scientific profession are taking a big hit after the release of these documents.

“How does the public ever trust science again?” asked Bhattacharya.

END

end

GLOBAL ECONOMIC ISSUES//

END

GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES“

end

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

Cancer Virus Found in COVID Shots: “This Is Looking Very Bad,” Says Dr. Peter McCullough; “What I’m telling you is the shots promote cancer through SV40, and they inhibit our ability to fight cancer

by suppressing the tumor suppressor system. So now this is looking very bad. Every system is showing cancer rates are up. Impairs the tumor suppressor systems P53 and BRCA.

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 18

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Fox Media

 Cancer Virus Found in COVID Shots: “This Is Looking Very Bad,” Says Dr. Peter McCullough

Watch now (1 min) | “SV40 is a known cancer-promoting segment of DNA. And yes, they’re in the shots,” reported McCullough. “What I’m telling you is the shots promote cancer through SV40, and they inhibit our ability to fight cancer by suppressing the tumor suppressor system. So now this is looking very bad. Every system is showing cancer rates are up. So, that’s inarguable…

Read more

a day ago · 382 likes · 173 comments · The Vigilant Fox

“SV40 is a known cancer-promoting segment of DNA. And yes, they’re in the shots,” reported McCullough.

“What I’m telling you is the shots promote cancer through SV40, and they inhibit our ability to fight cancer by suppressing the tumor suppressor system. So now this is looking very bad. Every system is showing cancer rates are up. So, that’s inarguable. The big question is, how much of this is due to the vaccines?”

end

Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche: “Breaking the silence one final time for the sake of truth….” Voice for Science and Solidarity by Geert Vanden Bossche

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 18

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SOURCE:

Voice for Science and Solidarity by Geert Vanden Bossche

Breaking the silence one final time for the sake of truth….

Watch now (7 min) | …

Read more  
end 

33 year old Estelle Puccio Coplin, a California woman whose life was destroyed with TURBO cancer of the salivary glands, by three Pfizer COVID mRNA technology based injection vaccines; who is to pay?

Is it Kariko? Weissman? Who? Which mRNA technology inventor? Can Malone shed light on what is happening here to stem the tide of these TURBO cancers? If he has information, he must share; MAKIS!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 17

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Dr. Makis shars a tragic story about this TURBO cancer.

Makis:

‘Turbo cancer is a brand new pathophysiologic entity specific to Pfizer & Moderna COVID-19 mRNA vaccines. Oncologists have nothing to offer in terms of treatment, because they don’t understand it.

Generally speaking, you can’t treat something you have zero understanding of.

They can’t even begin guessing at what might work.

But what is much worse, is they don’t want to understand it. They gave the mRNA poison to all their patients and took the poison themselves, then gave it to their families and recommended it to all their friends.

They sold their Hippocratic Oath, their medical ethics and their very souls.

It’s much easier to ignore the consequences, than face them with courage and humility.’

‘

33 year old Estelle Puccio Coplin lives in San Francisco Bay area, California. She had a bridal shower in Feb.2022 and got married in March 2022:

By Aug.2022, Estelle was diagnosed with stage 4 cancer. How? Estelle explains in her words:

If the above post isn’t clear, Estelle was questioning whether to get the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine booster shot in March 2022 to be able to honeymoon in Bora, Bora.

She eventually “gave into social pressure to be around family, friends, attend concerts, restaurants, go to my office, go on our honeymoon”.

The backstory starting with first two Pfizer COVID-19 vaccines is:

In July 2022 ( 4 months after her Pfizer COVID-19 mRNA booster shot) she was diagnosed with ACC = Adenoid Cystic Carcinoma (salivary gland cancer), Stage 4

What happened in 2023:

end

Ka-Boom! Brevard County Republican Executive Committee (BREC) takes the lead, passed a resolution to ban the COVID-19 vaccine, claiming it and the virus to be a “biological and technological weapon.”

The mRNA vaccines are bioweapons and is more one can argue, a possible binary weapon

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 17

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SOURCE:

Florida County GOP Declares COVID and mRNA COVID Vaccine a ‘Bioweapon’

DR. PAUL ALEXANDER

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News

Top German Official Vows to Destroy WHO: ‘We Will Bring You Down’A top German politician has issued a warning to the World Health Organization (WHO) by vowing to destroy the unelected globalist agency.READ MORE

Toxic Train Derails in Pennsylvania, Surrounding Area EvacuatedA train carrying toxic materials derailed in Whitemarsh Township, Pennsylvania, on Monday morning, prompting local authorities to evacuate the local area.READ MORE

Tucker Carlson Overrules Fox News, Agrees to Landmark Seven-Figure DealFormer Fox News star Tucker Carlson has agreed to a landmark seven-figure advertising deal for his new Twitter show.READ MORE

Biden’s NIH Director Nominee Is ‘Bankrolled’ by ‘Big Pharma,’ Watchdog FindsDemocrat President Joe Biden‘s nominee to lead the National Institute of Health (NIH) is “bankrolled” by the pharmaceutical industry, a nonprofit government watchdog has found.READ MORE

Piers Morgan Slams Biden over Viral Incident with Toddler: ‘I’d Be Getting the Police, It’s Definitely Unpresidential’Fox News Tonight guest host Piers Morgan called out President Joe Biden for “literally nibbling” on “a frightened young girl” in Finland this week before comparing Biden to Hannibal Lecter.READ MORE

Don Trump Jr Brings Down House With Biden Joke: “Do you know what my father would have done to me if it was my laptop?”Donald Trump Jr. brought down the house at the Turning Point Action Conference over the weekend with a funny joke about the Biden family. Trump Jr. called out ‘Bidenomics’ before answering a question about the cocaine found at the White House shouted by an audience member. Trump Jr said: “According to Twitter, it was mine. You have the world’s most …READ MORE

Obama Judge Orders Kari Lake’s Legal Team to Pay $122,200 in Sanctions to Maricopa CountyA Barack Obama-appointed federal judge has ordered Republican 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election candidate Kari Lake’s legal team to pay $122,200 in sanctions to Maricopa County.READ MORE

Leftists Demand Boycott as In-N-Out Bans Employees from Wearing MasksLeftists have been imploding on social media after American fast food chain In-N-Out Burger issued a notice to employees that face masks have been banned for all staff members.READ MORE

Biden Tries to Blame Trump for Catastrophic Failure, Fails MiserablyThe Biden administration is trying to blame President Donald Trump for its catastrophic failure of running out of ammunition.READ MORE

Jonathan Turley Warns America about Biden: ‘This Is the Clarion Call of Every Nation That Has Engaged in Censorship’George Washington University Law Professor Jonathan Turley has issued a warning to every American about the tactics Democrat President Joe Biden’s administration is using to suppress free speech.READ MORE

EVOL NEWS

Florida Republicans Officially Designate Covid Shots as ‘Bioweapons’READ MORE…

LATEST NEWS:

SCOTUS May Soon Face Emergency Appeal on Trans Surgery for KidsRead more…Trump Addresses Mistakes Made During First TermRead more…Supreme Court to Hear Police Officer’s Sex Discrimination CaseRead more…Jen Psaki and Dem Lawmaker Peddle New Conspiracy Theory: Biden Investigators are Captured by Foreign AgentsRead more…Elon Musk Reveals Twitter Has ‘Negative Cash Flow’ and ‘Heavy Debt’Read more…‘I Would Kick His ***’: Chris Christie Boasts He Would Take Down Trump in UFC Fist FightRead more…New US Citizenship Test Requiring Greater English Skills Draws Concerns from Immigrants and AdvocatesRead more…Senate Foreign Relations Committee Approves Transfer of Nuclear Submarines to AustraliaRead more…

NEWS ADDICTS

LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES

Florida Republicans Officially Designate Covid Shots as ‘Bioweapons’Republicans in a Florida county have banned Covid shots and officially designated the jabs as “bioweapons.”READ THE FULL REPORT

‘You Didn’t Drain the Swamp Like You Said You Would’: Trump Pressed on Hiring & Firing Decisions as PresidentDonald Trump was confronted by Fox News host Maria Bartiromo in a sitdown interview that aired on Sunday about his hiring and firing decisions as president. Trump’s exchange with the host of “Sunday Morning Futures” arose after a discussion about what the former president would do differently in his potential next administration. “The mistakes would be people,” Trump said. ” …READ THE FULL REPORT

Donald Trump Hints About Potential 2024 Running Mates in Sitdown InterviewFormer President Donald Trump said in an interview Sunday that some of his fellow 2024 presidential election candidates would make excellent choices for his cabinet, should he emerge victorious in the Republican primaries. In an interview with Maria Bartiromo on Sunday Morning Futures, Trump also hinted at a potential running mate for the vice presidency. Maria Bartiromo asked Trump about …READ THE FULL REPORT

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis Shakes Up Campaign Team Amid Fundraising ChallengesFlorida Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican candidate for the 2024 presidential campaign, is shaking up his team in response to challenges meeting fundraising goals. The DeSantis campaign has confirmed that it has let go of fewer than ten staffers, primarily from the event-planning team. The campaign said the decision was made with the intention of enhancing DeSantis’s prospects of defeating …READ THE FULL REPORT

VIEW MORE NEWS

VACCINE IMPACT/

Veterans on Patrol has Rescued Thousands of Children Sexually Trafficked in the U.S. – Appeals for More VolunteersJuly 17, 2023 6:28 pmI have written 2 articles on the blockbuster movie Sound of Freedom, a movie that has already grossed over $85 million in less than two weeks since its release on the big screen, and these articles have received tens of thousands of readers in the past few days, even though the movie does not expose child sex trafficking in the U.S., does not name the names of those funding this child sex trafficking network, and has no call to action to stop it. By way of contrast, I have exposed where much of the child sex trafficking in the U.S. is happening, with a recently published story of a man who pleaded guilty to sexually abusing young children through the foster care system, as well as an update on the ongoing lawsuits against Jeffrey Epstein’s child sex trafficking network, which DOES name names, and these two articles have received far fewer views than the Sound of Freedom film articles. In this article I am publishing today, about a group who has actually done something about child sex trafficking in the U.S., I suspect that it too will receive far fewer readers than the articles about the movie Sound of Freedom, even though this is an article about a group that has actually rescued thousands of women and children from sex trafficking right here in the U.S. during the past 7 years, and could probably rescue many more if people would join their efforts to expose and chase out the child sex traffickers neighborhood by neighborhood all across the U.S., rather than sitting in a theater and watching a movie about child sex trafficking outside the U.S.Read More…

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

end

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS 

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.1243 UP  0.0008

USA/ YEN 138.37  DOWN 0.351  NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.3102  UP    0.0030

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3209 UP .0008 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 9 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 11.81 PTS OR  0.37% 

 Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 398.06 PTS OR 2.05% 

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.20%  // EUROPEAN BOURSE:   MOSTLY RED EXCEPT LONDON

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:    MOSTLY  RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 398.06 PTS OR 2.05%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.81 PTS OR 0.37%  

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.20% 

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  UP 112.63 PTS OR .32% 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1962.70

silver:$24.88

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 99.77 DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.

TUESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.072%  DOWN 12  in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.487% UP 1 AND  2//100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.361 UP 10  in basis points yield 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.01 DOWN 2  points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.3505  DOWN 12 BASIS PTS 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1225 DOWN  0.0012 or  12  basis points 

USA/Japan: 138.87 UP 0.150 OR YEN DOWN 15 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3061 DOWN   0.0009 OR 9  BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP  .0020 OR 20 BASIS pts  to 1.3182

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY: closed    ON SHORE  CLOSED    (DOWN) …7.1801

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.1905)

TURKISH LIRA:  26.93 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.485…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 in basis points from MONDAY at  3.772% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

 USA 30 yr bond yield  3.899 DOWN 3   in basis points   ON THE DAY/12.00 PM

Your  12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates  TUESDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 47.27  points or  0.64%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 56.84 PTS OR 0.35%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 22.22 PTS OR 0.41%

Spain IBEX UP 17.70 PTS OR 0.19%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 98.22 PTS OR 0.34%

WTI Oil price 75.51    12: EST

Brent Oil:  79.55   12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ///   AT:  90.82 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND   18//100       RUBLES/DOLLAR

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3505  DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.3736  DOWN 6  BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM 

Euro vs USA: 1.1226 DOWN  0.0011   OR 11 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3043 DOWN   .0028 or  28 basis pts 

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.3900 %  DOWN 6 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 139.02 UP 0.298 //YEN DOWN 30 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3170  DOWN .0027 CDN dollar, UP 27  basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 75.64

Brent OIL:  79.69

USA 10 yr bond yield  DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 3.7990% 

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 1    BASIS PTS to 3.916% 

USA 2 YR BOND:UP 3  PTS AT 4.766%  

USA dollar index: 99.866 DOWN 13  BASIS POINTS  

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.96 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  90.90  UP 0   AND  10/100 roubles

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE:  UP 366.58 PTS OR 1.06% 

NASDAQ 100 UP 128.07 PTS OR 0.82%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.38 DOWN 0.20 PTS (.74)%

GLD: $183.66 UP 2.08 OR 1.15%

SLV/ $22.99 UP .20 OR 0.88%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:

Banks & Big-Tech Burst Higher, Bonds & Bullion Bid As Macro Skids

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 04:00 PM

An insanely schizophrenic day…

Weak retail sales (real retail sales down 4 of the last 5 months), and even weaker industrial production (negative YoY amid sizable downward revisions) set the scene early on with US macro surprise index dropping by the most since Feb…

Source: Bloomberg

But, after Value outperformed Growth early on, that was completely reversed after MSFT announced new pricing for its AI offerings…

Source: Bloomberg

That drove value back near its record lows relative to growth…

Source: Bloomberg

For context, MSFT and NVDA have added $175BN market cap today, more than the mkt cap of 462 S&P companies, and more than the value of Nike, Wells Fargo, Walt Disney, Morgan Stanley, Intel, etc

All of which meant that the early relative weakness of Nasdaq reversed hard (right after the European close) as MSFT took off, catching up to Small Caps and The Dow…

A total reverse in the Nasdaq/Russell pairs trade…

Somewhat notably, the ‘most shorted’ stocks reversed the early squeeze today…

Bear in mind that next Monday is the Nasdaq rebalance and the ‘up-weights’ are now barely outperforming the ‘down-weights’ (after initially outperforming by over 4 percent)…

Source: Bloomberg

And then there were the banks with MS initially selling off on its earnings, only to reverse massively, rallying 7% on the day…

Tech & Energy outperformed along with Financials while Utes were the laggard…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed today with the long-end outperforming (30Y -3bps, 2Y +2bps). Bonds were well bid overnight, but gave much of it back during the US day session…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve flattened today, erasing the last week’s steepening…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended very marginally higher on the day with a bid during the US session trumping the overnight selling…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin leaked lower once again, breaking back below $30k…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold extended its recent rebound, back above $1980 – at six-week highs…

Oil prices rebounded today, holding above the range of the last three months…

Finally, US equity markets have decoupled from the global liquidity proxy for the first time in over a decade…

Source: Bloomberg

Is the market pricing in a massive global re-liquification of asset markets? Or is this just the vinegar strokes of an extended ‘bear-market rally’?

b) THIS MORNING TRADING//

END

II) USA DATA/

A strong indicator showing that the uSA economy is in trouble

(zerohedge)

Empire State Manufacturing Survey Signals Slowing Inflation, Growth

MONDAY, JUL 17, 2023 – 08:57 AM

The New York Fed’s manufacturing survey beat expectations in July (+1.1 vs -3.5 exp), but fell to barely positive from the +6.6 print in June. The overall sentiment index has swung wildly in recent months from optimisms to pessimism and back, and that is highlighted by manufacturers’ diverging views of business conditions, with roughly 29% reporting an improvement and some 27% citing a deterioration.

Perhaps most notably, the report showed a further cooling of inflationary pressures.

Measures of prices paid and received by New York state manufacturers slid to levels not seen since mid-2020.

Source: Bloomberg

However, the outlook for prices received picked up, even as the overall outlook for business declined (with the average workweek expected to decline notably).

END

USA retail sales disappoint in June sending gold and silver skyrocketing…

(zerohedge)

US Retail Sales Disappoint In June, But…

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 08:38 AM

While consensus expectations were for an acceleration in retail sales on MoM basis, BofA (now almost omnipotent in their forecasting ability) had a very different perspective (expecting core retail sales to actually decline MoM).

And once again, BofA was right as the headline retail sales rose only 0.2% MoM (vs +0.5% exp). That is the 3rd monthly rise in retail sales in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Core retail sales also disappointed, rising 0.2% MoM (vs +0.3% exp)…

On a YoY basis, both headline and core retail sales growth slowed…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that the control group – which is used in the GDP calculation – rose 0.6% MoM (double the expected 0.3% MoM rise). This seems like magical thinking to us compared to the other data…

Source: Bloomberg

One last thing, all of this data is completely divergent from the collapse in retail sales seen by Redbook data…

Of course the usual caveat accompanies this data – this is nominal, not real data (adjusted for CPI – admittedly a crude method – headline retail sales were unchanged MoM in June).

end

USA industrial production posts its first annual decline in two years

(zerohedge0

US Industrial Production Posts First Annual Decline In 28 Months

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 09:21 AM

After an unexpected decline in May, US Industrial Production was expected to show no change in June as ‘hard’ manufacturing data begins to match the ‘soft’ survey collapse. However, things were considerably worse than expected with a 0.5% MoM decline – the biggest drop since Dec ’22…

Source: Bloomberg

The consecutive declines pushed Industrial Production down 0.4% YoY – its first annual decline since Feb 2021.

Utilities saw a large decline (-2.6% MoM) but the index for consumer durables also fell 2.7%, led by notable decreases in the output of appliances, furniture, and carpeting (3.8  percent) and of automotive products (3.6 percent).  The decrease of 0.9  percent in the index for consumer nondurables reflected declines in  clothing (2.1 percent), energy (1.8 percent), and food and tobacco (1.3  percent).

Capacity Utilization declined to its lowest since 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

The Manufacturing sector also saw a decline, down 0.3% MoM vs unch expected.

Source: Bloomberg

That is the fourth straight month of YoY declines in Manufacturing output.

So much for the ‘soft landing’ narrative.

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

Starting in October, 37 million students must pay back with loans.  This amounts to a 5% pay cut for them

(Mish Shedlock)

A 5% Pay-Cut Is Coming For 37 Million Student Loan Borrowers

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 07:20 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

About 37 million borrowers will have to start paying back their student loans after a 3 year hiatus. Let’s discuss what that means…

Millions of student-loan borrowers will soon restart paying back their loans. This is equivalent to a Four or Five Percent Pay Cut according to Wells Fargo.

The typical monthly loan payment will be between $210 and $314, Wells Fargo estimated using data collected in 2019.

The return of loan payments will take more of a bite out of many borrowers’ budgets than a single year of dramatic rises in inflation did. From December 2021 to December 2022, the income of a typical U.S. household decreased on average by 1% when adjusting for inflation, according to estimates from the economists Thomas Blanchet, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman.

Supreme Court Strikes Down Student Debt Cancellation, Cites Nancy Pelosi

The US Supreme Court wisely struck down President Biden’s executive power garb that usurps powers granted by the Constitution to the legislative branch of government. The 77-Page Supreme Court Decision was 6-3.

A paragraph on page 23 (PDF page 28) caught my eye.

… (quoting Gonzales v. Oregon, 546 U. S. 243, 267–268 (2006)). As then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi explained: “People think that the President of the United States has the power for debt forgiveness. He does not. He can postpone. He can delay. But he does not have that power. That has to be an act of Congress.” Press Conference, Office of the Speaker of the House (July 28, 2021).

If you thought Nancy Pelosi never made any sense, you stand corrected.

On June 30, I commented Supreme Court Strikes Down Student Debt Cancellation, Cites Nancy Pelosi

Hoot of the Day

Despite being warned in advance, by Nancy Pelosi, President Biden called the decision “unthinkable”.

Precisely because he could not think, Biden kept upping the ante with more and more delays culminating in debt forgiveness.

Biden doesn’t think. Instead he lets Elizabeth Warren do his thinking for him. Warren’s handwriting is all over the unthinking president’s handling of student debt. And her signature is all over Biden’s Marxist nominees to the Fed.

Elizabeth Warren May as Well Be President, She Makes All Biden’s Calls

On December 28, 2021 I made the case Elizabeth Warren May as Well Be President, She Makes All Biden’s Calls

Joe Biden’s nominee for the Comptroller of the Currency Saule Omarova on oil, coal and gas industries: “We want them to go bankrupt if we want to tackle climate change.”

No one should be surprised by this even though Biden is not bright enough to find these Marxist nut cases on his own.

See the above link for details on who is making Biden’s calls.

And check out this Tweet by Saule Omarova praising Russia.

“Say what you will about old USSR, there was no gender pay gap there.“

Mercy!

Student Debt Repayment is Highly Disinflationary

Yesterday, I commented, “Nothing is more inflationary than paying people to do nothing.”

The opposite is true here. Nothing is more disinflationary than making people pay for something that used to be “free”.

Student debt cancellation wasn’t really free, of course, it was just spread out to make it a big deal for some and a very tiny deal to the rest.

Real Disposable Personal Income and Real PCE

Real Personal Income Chart Notes

• Real means inflation adjusted by the PCE price index.
• PCE stands for Personal Consumption Expenditures.
• Transfer payments are free money handouts such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the three huge rounds of fiscal stimulus.

Excluding transfer payments, real income has gone nowhere. But the huge handouts led to equally huge jumps in income and spending.

The Fed has been struggling with inflation ever since. Demographics adds to the problem.

Student Debt Repayment Magnitude

The impact of the cancellation will have nowhere near the impact of three rounds of inflation causing fiscal stimulus.

Free money went nearly everywhere. Student debt forgiveness was targeted at a much smaller audience.

Do Rising Wages Tend to Increase Inflation?

The above discussion ties in with my post yesterday, Do Rising Wages Tend to Increase Inflation?

Think of three rounds of fiscal stimulus as paying people to do nothing. After a three year hiatus to students, repayment mandates will feel like making people pay for something that was once free.

Student debt repayment will impact spending but it’s nothing compared to fiscal stimulus handouts.

*  *  *

Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

END

The sad state of affairs of Baltimore

(zerohedge)

Baltimore Considers ‘Investing’ Billions To Address 14,000 Vacant Homes

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 06:55 AM

Over 14,000 vacant houses are scattered across Democrat-controlled Baltimore City, an issue we’ve been reporting on for years — refer to our 2018 article “One Baltimore Neighborhood Has The Highest Vacancy Rate In America.” 

Six decades of Democrats in City Hall have transformed the once-thriving metro area just above Washington, DC, into a ‘rat-infested hellhole.’ Now the city leadership (even more progressive than before) has a cunning plan to reverse the rot. 

Local media outlet WJZ reports Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott has proposed a plan to throw billions of dollars at the more than 14,332 vacant homes to rebuild them, such as the ones featured below… 

Scott partnered with The Greater Baltimore Committee, a non-profit focused on improving the region’s business climate, and BUILD, an inter-faith development group, to rid the city of vacant homes through a proposed multi-billion dollar plan. 

“One person can’t do it. One entity can’t do it. One organization can’t do it,” said Pastor Brent Brown from BUILD, which stands for Baltimoreans United in Leadership Development.

Brown said, “One politician can’t do it. It’s going to take community.”

BUILD published a study that indicated at least $7.5 billion is needed to address the vacancy problem in the city. There are entire neighborhoods with vacant row homes. 

“Having vacant after vacant after vacant, it can put you, really, in a depressed state,” Baltimore resident Edith Gilliard told WJZ. 

Gilliard said she dreams of a future where homes will be occupied and neighborhoods thriving like decades ago.

The past that Gilliard refers to was one from a half-century ago when the city had a total population of nearly a million — figures now show that number has been halved. People are fleeing the area because of failed progressive policies sparking out-of-control crime. 

Instead of rebuilding vacant row homes for a population that doesn’t exist anymore, here is a novel idea: “The mayor should concentrate on straightforward, impactful strategies such as reducing the property tax rate, which is among the highest in the state and the country, to stimulate economic growth,” said Chadwick Chilcot, senior wealth advisor at Wilmington Trust in Baltimore. 

END

USA is out of control as they say their moral authority is untarnished despite the use of cluster bombs

(zerohedge)

Biden Admin Touts “Moral Authority” Untarnished As Media Highlights Cluster Bombs Are Indiscriminate Killers

MONDAY, JUL 17, 2023 – 08:00 PM

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has once again made the Sunday news show rounds with the purpose of defending the administration in the wake of Biden’s controversial approval of cluster munitions for Ukraine. Initial shipments of thousands of cluster bombs have already been received by Kiev, according to reports.

Speaking to NBC News, Sullivan rejected the notion that Washington is losing “moral authority” in providing the weapon system which is banned by more than 120 countries due to its indiscriminate nature and higher chance that it will kill civilians, possibly even for years to come (given unexploded bomblets often remain in the ground).

Sullivan with a straight face defended the supposedly untarnished “moral authority” of America, based on the mere fact of supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion.

“Our moral authority and Ukraine’s moral authority in this conflict comes from the fact that we are supporting a country under brutal, vicious attack by its neighbor with missiles and bombs raining down on its cities, killing its civilians, destroying its schools, its churches, its hospitals,” Sullivan told host Chuck Todd. 

“And the idea that providing Ukraine with a weapon in order for them to be able to defend their homeland, protect their civilians is somehow a challenge to our moral authority, I find questionable.”

Watch the exchange below:

President Biden has meanwhile admitted that a prime factor in the decision to provide cluster munitions arose from severe artillery shortages, both in Pentagon stockpiles and within the Ukrainian arsenal. But the US has plenty of cluster bombs, which have been stockpiled for decades. 

Another interesting angle to the interview is that Sullivan has once again resurrected the old Russiagate-related talking points to preemptively smear whichever GOP candidate for 2024 emerges – and it’s looking increasingly likely it’ll be Trump. Sullivan told NBC that Putin can’t ‘bet’ on the 2024 US presidential election to further his aims. 

Meanwhile, for documentation of America’s recent ‘dark history’ of cluster munition use on foreign battlefields…

end

ESG façade is now crumbling

(zerohedge)

Larry Fink’s Fake ESG Facade Crumbles As Blackrock Names Aramco CEO To Its Board

MONDAY, JUL 17, 2023 – 11:20 PM

Three weeks ago, at the Aspen Ideas Festival, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink revealed that he had abandoned the term “ESG” (every virtue signaler’s beloved “environment, social, and governance” acronym) because it has been highly politicized and even “weaponized,” and he is “ashamed” to be part of the debate.

Many applauded the decision, which they viewed as actually representative of the truth: after all, Fink acknowledged at the event that Ron DeSantis’ decision to yank $2 billion in assets from the world’s largest money manager in late 2022 over “woke” policies hurt his firm. DeSantis of course, is not alone: lawmakers from red states have retaliated and called out BlackRock for its toxic woke capitalism push in corporate America. Besides Florida, states like Louisiana, South Carolina, Utah, Arkansas, West Virginia, Missouri, and Texas have withdrawn funds from the asset manager which previously said it would not longer invest in “fossil fuels” and other causes that were unworthy of ESG’s consummate virtue signaling.

Fast forward to today when we learn that Blackrock named the boss of Saudi Aramo, Amin Nasser, as the fund’s independent director.Amin Nasser

Yes, the same Saudi Arabia whose Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman dismembered WaPo’s Jamal Khashoggi without prejudice, a move which not only led to a chilling collapse in US-Saudi relations which has lasted to this day (as Saudi Arabia openly mocks Biden’s demands for increased oil production) but which also leaves quite a bit to be desired on the “social” vertical of the ESG religion; and yes, the same Saudi Arabia which also happens to be the world’s largest producer of oil, and whose “Environmental” rank may leave just a little to be desired, especially to idiots such as these.

But not to Blackrock, and consummate WEG globalist Larry Fink, who after years of hiding behind the ESG smokescreen if and when it was convenient to convince the peasants just what a lovable, cuddly $10 trillion money manager Blackrock actually is, finally revealed that it was all just one giant lie, and its so-called ESG standards were nothing more than a joke.

Nasser has led the world’s biggest oil producer since 2015, including overseeing its public listing, and provides BlackRock with “a unique perspective” on key issues facing the company and its clients, CEO Larry Fink said Monday in an emailed statement.

“His leadership experience, understanding of the global energy industry and the drivers of the shift toward a low-carbon economy, as well as his knowledge of the Middle East region, will all contribute meaningfully to the BlackRock board dialogue,” Fink said in the statement.

Not that we have anything against Nasser: unlike Fink, he never pretended to be something he never was. Nasser joined Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant as a petroleum engineer in 1982, and decades later having worked his way up from the ground floor, led Aramco’s initial public offering in 2019.

His expertise in the Middle East will fill the gap left by Bader Alsaad, chairman of the board of the Arab Fund for Economic & Social Development, who is not standing for reelection on BlackRock’s board in 2024, the asset manager said on Monday.

BlackRock – which will henceforth be the butt of every anti-ESG joke, if the concept of ESG even exists for any other purpose than manipulating mentally-challenged idiots into believing random propaganda…

… has sought to strike a balance on the issue of climate change, continuing to invest in fossil fuel companies, while nudging them to adopt energy transition plans.  In a note to clients earlier this month, the asset manager estimated its average annual investment in the energy system would jump to $4 trillion through 2050, up from $2.2 trillion in recent years.

BlackRock, which had about $9.4 trillion assets under management as of end-June, has projected that by 2030 at least three quarters of its investments will be with issuers of securities that have scientific targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions on a net basis.

Spoiler alert: that will not happen, and instead – as today’s “shocking” appointment reveals – BlackRock will soon reveal that while it was pushing others to live in virtuous misery, it was gradually preparing for the next fossil-fuel revolution. And none other than Nasser will be there to make that revelation.

While Aramco, which like BlackRock has tiptoped the virtue signaling line for the benefit of a handful of globalist idiots, and unveiled a $1.5 billion sustainability fund to focus on areas including carbon capture and storage, greenhouse gas emissions, as well as hydrogen, the reality is that as Nasser said the current global energy transition plan was flawed.

In February Nasser – who also serves on several boards, including the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Presidential CEO Advisory Board and the JP Morgan International Council – went so far as to warn that an increased focus on ESG was undermining investment in oil and gas to the point where it posed a threat to the world’s energy security.

“We need to realize that today alternatives are not ready to shoulder a heavy load of the growing energy demand and therefore we need to work in parallel until alternatives are ready.”

The message from Blackrock is simple: “all that shit we said about ESG? Well, we still mean it… but over the next 30 years we will be investing in all those companies we told you to boycott and avoid. And if you believed us… well, you’re the idiots.”

end

DISNEY

Disney is becoming a failed company due to adherence to wokism: they just called the new Snow White pictures a fake which is not.   Disney is falling apart and Igar is not stopping the carnage

(zerohedge)

Disney Beclowns Itself After Calling Leaked Snow White Pics ‘Fake’

MONDAY, JUL 17, 2023 – 07:20 PM

Disney has once again beclowned itself, after a photo emerged of Snow White’s new ‘accomplices’ – just one of whom could even be considered dwarfs – which the company initially called “fake.”

On Friday, the Daily Mail posted that conservatives online were losing their minds over a photo of the seven… not dwarfs, but ‘magical creatures,’ so to ‘avoid reinforcing stereotypes’ after “Game of Thrones” star Peter Dinklage called it a “fucking backwards story” last year.

“I was a little taken aback when they [Disney] were very proud to cast a Latina actress as Snow White, but you’re still telling the story of Snow White And The Seven Dwarfs,” Dinklage said on Mark Maron’s “WTF” podcast. “It makes no sense to me. You’re progressive in one way and you’re still making that f***ing backwards story about seven dwarfs living in a cave together, what the f*** are you doing, man? Have I done nothing to advance the cause from my soapbox? I guess I’m not loud enough.'”

In response to the leaked picture, Disney originally told the Daily Beast: “The photos are fake and not from our production. We are currently trying to have the Daily Mail issue a correction.”

Except, they weren’t fake.

Disney then walked back their statement, verifying that the photos were indeed from their woke production, but weren’t official.

“Editor’s Note: This story has been updated to reflect that… the studio later said the photos were from the production but were not official photos,” added the Beast.

Disney said it changed the dwarfs to “avoid reinforcing stereotypes from the original animated film” in a statement to Hollywood Reporter. “[W]e are taking a different approach with these seven characters and have been consulting with members of the dwarfism community.”

Disney shared in January 2022 that the “seven dwarfs” would be referred to as “magical creatures” to “avoid reinforcing stereotypes” after criticism of the original depictions by “Game of Thrones” actor Peter Dinklage, who has dwarfism. -Fox News

Once again, Dinsey comes up short.

end

Biden approves pumping another $1.3 billion in arms

(zerohedge)

Biden Approves Pumping Another $1.3BN In Arms Into ‘Stalemated’ Ukraine War

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 11:10 AM

The Biden administration will announce yet another $1.3 billion in military aid for Ukraine at a moment Zelensky’s counteroffensive has stalled and was recently even put on “pause”. 

“The United States will announce a new pledge to buy $1.3 billion worth of military aid for Kyiv in its conflict with Russia in the coming days, two U.S. officials said,” Reuters reports Tuesday. This fresh package will reportedly include new air defenses, counter-drone systems, exploding drones and ammunition, according to a US official speaking to Reuters.

Reflecting months of headlines of dwindling US weapons supplies, and severe arms shortages among the Western allies generally, the funds have been authorized under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) program – which means in this case the Biden administration will buy weapons from the arms industry (and not pull them from direct from Pentagon stocks).

The report continues to detail: “Also included are two different types of loitering munitions, the Phoenix Ghost drone made by AVEVEX, a private company in California, and the Switchblade, made by AeroVironment Inc.” – the latter system being a ‘suicide drone’ which is small and less expensive than conventional UAVs.

Elon Musk commented Tuesday in response to the Reuters headline, “Would be nice for the public to have some clue how the money is spent!”

The remark is in reference to growing concerns of lack of oversight and accountability when it comes to the tens of billions in funds and arms being pumped into Ukraine. 

Hawks in Congress have consistently blocked serious efforts at imposing serious oversight and accountability on Ukraine aid. Over the last year, there have been multiple reports alleging as well as documenting that foreign arms meant for Ukraine have shown up as far away as Scandinavia countries and even more recently the Middle East. 

As ‘Ukraine fatigue’ has long set in among Western populations, Washington has been doubling down…

US officials such as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have urged global partners to redouble their efforts in support of Ukraine, which has been met with some resistance especially among BRICS countries.

USA// COVID//VACCINE

end

SWAMP STORIES

insanity!!

Trump Expects ‘Arrest And Indictment’ Over January 6th

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 09:56 AM

Former President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he expects to be arrested and indicted by special counsel Jack Smith in connection with the January 6th Grand Jury investigation.

“Deranged Jack Smith, the prosecutor with Joe Biden’s DOJ, sent a letter (again, it was Sunday night!) stating that I am a TARGET of the January 6th Grand Jury investigation, and giving me a very short 4 days to report to the Grand Jury, which almost always means an Arrest and Indictment,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

President Biden’s DOJ have cast a wide net in their investigation into President Trump, Biden’s chief rival in the 2024 US election. Trump is expected to travel to Iowa on Tuesday, where he will tape a town hall with Fox News host Sean Hannity.

Prosecutors in Georgia are conducting a separate investigation into efforts by Trump to reverse his election law in that state, with the top prosecutor in Fulton County signaling that she expects to announce charging decisions in the first several weeks since Sunday. –AP

While the charges Smith is considering are unknown, several lawyers – ranging from the House committee that investigated the Jan. 6 riot to outsiders writing “model prosecution memos” (per the NYT) have focused on the ‘the attempted corrupt obstruction of an official proceeding’ under Section 1512(c) of Title 18, and conspiracy to defraud the government under Section 371 of Title 18.

Charges of obstructing an official proceeding (Congress’s session to count electoral college votes and certify Biden’s victory) have been brought against some Jan. 6 rioters. Charges of defrauding the government could get into broader actions before Jan. 6, like the scheme to have Trump supporters pretend to be alternative slates of official electors from contested states. –NYT

Read Trump’s entire message below (emphasis ours):

WOW! On Sunday night, while I was with my family, having just arrived from the Turning Point event in Florida, where I won the Straw Poll against all other Republican candidates with 85.7%, with all polls showing me leading in the Republican Primary by very substantial numbers, almost everyone predicting that I will be the Republican Nominee for President, and as I am leading Democrat Joe Biden in the polls by a lot, HORRIFYING NEWS for our Country was given to me by my attorneys.

Deranged Jack Smith, the prosecutor with Joe Biden’s DOJ, sent a letter (again, it was Sunday night!) stating that I am a TARGET of the January 6th Grand Jury investigation, and giving me a very short 4 days to report to the Grand Jury, which almost always means an Arrest and Indictment.

So now, Joe Biden’s Attorney General, Merrick Garland, who I turned down for the United States Supreme Court (in retrospect, based on his corrupt and unethical actions, a very wise decision!), together with Joe Biden’s Department of Injustice, have effectively issued a third Indictment and Arrest of Joe Biden’s NUMBER ONE POLITICAL OPPONENT, who is largely dominating him in the race for the Presidency. Nothing like this has ever happened in our Country before, or even close. They illegally spied on my Campaign, attacked me with a totally Fake “Dossier” that was funded by Hillary Clinton’s Campaign and the DNC, Impeached me twice (I won!), they failed on the Mueller Witch Hunt (No Collusion!), they failed on the Russia, Russia, Russia Hoax, the 51 “Intelligence” Agents fraud, the FBI/Twitter files, the DOJ/Facebook censorship, and every other scam imaginable. But on top of all of that, they have now effectively indicted me three times (the DOJ staffed and runs the D.A.’s Office in Manhattan), with a probable fourth coming from Atlanta, where the DOJ are in strict, and possibly illegal, coordination with the District Attorney, whose record on murder and other violent crime is abysmal. THIS WITCH HUNT IS ALL ABOUT ELECTION INTERFERENCE AND A COMPLETE AND TOTAL POLITICAL WEAPONIZATION OF LAW ENFORCEMENT! It is a very sad and dark period for our Nation!

Under the United States Constitution, I have the right to protest an Election that I am fully convinced was Rigged and Stolen, just as the Democrats have done against me in 2016. and many others have done over the ages. But the Democrats have gone much further than has ever happened before – they cheated on the elections. Rather than looking at the CHEATERS, the WEAPONI2ED DOJ AND FBI target and harass those who complain about the cheaters, and the massive fraud that took place. The prosecutor involved in this case, and likewise the Boxes Hoax, the Manhattan and Atlanta District Attorneys, the New York A.G., etc., has been overturned unanimously in the Supreme Court, headed and caused the Lois Lerner IRS scandal, and failed miserably in his prosecution of John Edwards, where the case was forced to be dropped, along with numerous other catastrophes. He has had a vicious but disastrous career, and is a known biased and obsessed Trump Hater (as is his family). Whether it’s their failure to mention the Presidential Records Act (Prosecutorial Misconduct), their dominance of the Manhattan D.A., including the fact that a Hillary Clinton lawyer, Mark Pomerantz, left a top Democrat law firm (run by Chuck Schumer’s brother) to join the D.A.’s Office and become a prosecutor against me, and then quit, against all rules, regulations, and laws when the Office would not prosecute (he wrongfully wrote a book while working at the Office and is now under scrutiny!), or a perfect phone call made to many lawyers and a Secretary of State, without any protestation of my call, because nothing that was said was wrong, (it was clearly a complaint about an election), these are all Hoaxes and Scams made up to stop me from fighting for the American People – BUT I WILL NEVER STOP!

This has been a neverending fight from the day I came down the escalator in Trump Tower, many years ago. So interesting that in this case the information was delivered to me on a Sunday night, less than 24 hours after I suggested during a major speech that the Federal Government ASSUME CONTROL of a filthy, unsanitary, neglected, and crimendden Washington. D.C., where murder and violent crime are rampant and people no longer want to go to our Nation’s Capital… and yet. that is where Biden’s DOJ actually wants my trial to take place, all because they think, especially after my strong words of a Federal takeover at the speech, a D.C jury will do whatever they want. VERY UNFAIR!

As journalist Julie Kelly notes:

Smith knows this case is small potatoes compared to what he’s about to inflict on Trump and several associates for January 6. It’s very likely Smith will use the “classified docs” prosecution as leverage to seek pretrial detention for Trump when the special counsel indicts Trump for several J6-related offenses, which could include seditious conspiracy.

END

Robert H to us:

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Published July 18, 2023 9:55am EDT

WATCH: McCarthy’s closed-door video sets up bombshell hearing on Hunter Biden/IRS investigation

Fox News Digital obtained a video McCarthy is showing at a closed-door House GOP meeting

Robert Hryniak	12:58 PM (29 minutes ago)
to

There is a reason the Chinese think this crowd has not long to exist. Perhaps they too have evidence to release. It is why the Neocons are so desperate to start a wider war, thinking it will save them.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/watch-mccarthys-closed-door-video-bombshell-hearing-hunter-biden-irs-investigation

EXCLUSIVE: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday played a video for House Republicans that shows President Biden denying any wrongdoing related to his family’s business dealings, one day before a whistleblower is expected to tell Congress that the investigation into Hunter Biden was politicized.

The video, obtained exclusively by Fox News Digital, shows a timeline of Biden defending his family’s actions. But it ends with IRS whistleblower Gary Shapley claiming the IRS probe he was part of was prevented from taking steps “that could have led us to President Biden.”

Shapley and one other whistleblower are expected to claim on Wednesday at the House Oversight and Accountability Committee that the Justice Department interfered in the IRS investigation of Hunter Biden and his business dealings. The hearing is a culmination of linked probes by Oversight as well as the House Judiciary and Ways & Means committees into both Hunter and the president’s brother James Biden.

“This video is what the speaker is using to educate the broader House Republican conference on the status of the Biden family investigation,” a source familiar with McCarthy’s effort told Fox News Digital.

REPUBLICANS ERUPT OVER 2015 EMAIL EXPOSING ‘ULTIMATE PURPOSE’ OF HUNTER’S INVOLVEMENT WITH BURISMA

Hunter Biden’s business dealings will be front-and-center of a House GOP-led hearing on Wednesday (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)

It signals the importance House GOP leaders are placing on the Biden investigation, which has been a top priority for Republicans since taking the House majority last year.

It’s also served as a unifying issue for what has proved to be an ideologically fractured conference. McCarthy’s video and Wednesday’s hearing come as the speaker is facing a fierce spending battle on defense and other annual appropriations, as the narrowly divided House has given a small faction of hardline conservatives greater influence over legislation.

HOUSE GOP DEMAND TRANSCRIBED INTERVIEWS FROM HUNTER BIDEN PROSECUTOR, DOJ, IRS, SECRET SERVICE OFFICIALS

But nearly all House Republicans have been united in their suspicions of wrongdoing by the president’s family members.

Hunter Biden reached a deal with the U.S. Attorney in Delaware last month to plead guilty to misdemeanor tax charges and one felony count related to firearms possession after a years-long probe into his foreign business dealings including in Ukraine and China.

Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy is preparing for the hearing with a visual messaging memo for his conference (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

The two-minute video shown privately to lawmakers on Tuesday features various news clips dating back to the 2020 presidential debates. Biden is shown saying “nothing was unethical” about his son’s foreign work, which is followed by a clip of a news anchor revealing James and Hunter Biden were under investigation.

Then Biden is shown outside the White House telling reporters it’s “not true” that Hunter Biden’s foreign associates wired over $1,000,000 to three of the president’s relatives.

HUNTER BIDEN INVESTIGATORS LIMITED QUESTIONS ABOUT ‘DAD,’ ‘BIG GUY’ DESPITE FBI, IRS OBJECTIONS: WHISTLEBLOWER

McCarthy’s compilation also notes reporting that stated U.S. banks flagged concern over 150 transactions linked to Hunter and James Biden, and a White House statement that called the pair’s dealings “private matters.”

IRS Criminal Supervisory Special Agent Gary Shapley Jr., defended his claims that the Justice Department interfered with U.S. Attorney David Weiss’ Hunter Biden investigation in an interview with Fox News’ “Special Report.”  (Fox News)

Biden himself swore multiple times that he was not involved in his family’s foreign business links.

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

Fourteen-year IRS veteran Shapley alleged to the Ways & Means committee that the Hunter Biden probe he was formerly part of in Delaware was stymied by the Justice Department. He said efforts by Trump-appointed U.S. Attorney David Weiss to get special counsel status were rebuffed, and that Weiss was denied the ability to bring charges in other districts – something that would directly contradict claims of Weiss’s independence made by Attorney General Merrick Garland.

Weiss denied those claims in a letter to Senate Judiciary ranking member Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. this month.

end

Jordan Threatens FBI Director Wray With Contempt Over “Targeting” Parents, Catholics

TUESDAY, JUL 18, 2023 – 12:45 PM

Authored by Caden Pearsen via The Epoch Times,

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) has threatened to hold FBI Director Christopher Wray in contempt of Congress if the bureau does not comply with two subpoenas related to its alleged targeting of concerned parents and Catholics.

In his letter to Mr. Wray on July 17, Mr. Jordan highlighted the FBI’s “wholly inadequate” response to the subpoenas, which he believed hindered the committee’s oversight efforts.

“Of particular interest to the Committee is the FBI’s weaponization of its law-enforcement powers against Americans who exercise their First Amendment rights,” Mr. Jordan wrote (pdf).

The first subpoena, issued on Feb. 3, requested documents and information related to the “FBI’s targeting of concerned parents who speak out at school board meetings.”

The second subpoena, issued on April 10, was about the “FBI’s profiling of traditional Catholics as domestic extremists.”

“To date, the FBI’s compliance with these subpoenas has been wholly inadequate and has materially impeded the Committee’s oversight efforts,” Mr. Jordan wrote.

“After several accommodations, months of persistent outreach by the Committee, and attempts to negotiate and work with the FBI in good faith, we write to notify you that if the FBI does not improve its compliance substantially, the Committee will take action—such as the initiation of contempt of Congress proceedings—to obtain compliance with these subpoenas.”

The deadline for the FBI to provide the requested documents is set for July 25 at 12 p.m.

A man waits in line while holding a sign with parents gathered to express their concerns over mandatory vaccine mandates for their children at the Placentia Yorba Linda Unified School District building in Placentia, Calif., on Oct. 12, 2021. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

The committee has already received some documents from the FBI, but believes that there are additional materials still not provided.

“The FBI’s productions to date have not included material the Committee knows is, or has reason to believe may be, in the FBI’s possession and that is responsive to the subpoena,” Mr. Jordan wrote.

One specific record the committee wants is an email that might shed light on the connection between the National School Boards Association’s (NSBA’s) 2021 letter to President Joe Biden and the FBI’s focus on alleged threats made by vocal parents at school board meetings.

“America’s public schools and its education leaders are under an immediate threat,” the NSBA wrote in the 2021 letter to Mr. Biden. The letter asked for federal law enforcement support, as school board members faced parents expressing concerns about COVID-19 masking and the teaching of critical race theory.

The association later apologized for the letter.

FBI Did Not ‘Sufficiently Comply’

The subpoenas were initially issued in response to a memo from Attorney General Merrick Garland and Education Secretary Miguel Cardona, addressing an alleged increase in harassment, intimidation, and threats of violence against school administrators, board members, teachers, and staff.

According to Mr. Jordan, the FBI did not “sufficiently comply on a voluntary basis,” having only turned over four redacted pages of school board-related documents submitted by the initial March 1 deadline.

In a cover letter signed by Acting Assistant Director of Congressional Affairs Christopher Dunham, it was stated that the response included information that the FBI managed to prepare within the time since receiving the subpoena on Feb. 3, following the accommodation process.

Despite the committee’s willingness to accept documents on a rolling basis, the FBI’s response has been deemed underwhelming. Mr. Jordan alleges that the FBI’s handling of the subpoenas undermines the bureau’s commitment to protect First Amendment rights and accountability.

Furthermore, the FBI’s refusal to provide names of employees involved in the memo drafting, reviewing, approving, or disseminating process raised concerns about religious liberties protection, Mr. Jordan wrote.

A similar tactic was used in May when House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) threatened to hold Mr. Wray in contempt when attempting to obtain an unclassified file related to Biden’s alleged bribe from a Ukrainian energy executive. Ultimately, Mr. Wray agreed to share a redacted version of the information with Oversight Committee members.

The Epoch Times contact the FBI for comment.

end

THE KING REPORT

The King Report July 18, 2023 Issue 7034

Independent View of the News

China’s frail Q2 GDP growth raises urgency for more policy supportGDP grows 0.8% q/q in Q2, vs 2.2% in Q1, shows slowing momentumGDP expands 6.3% y/y in Q2 due to low base effectsFrail data raises urgency to unveil more policy stepsPolicymakers seen avoiding aggressive stimulus due to debt risksChina’s economy grew at a frail pace in the second quarter as demand weakened at home and abroad, with the post-COVID momentum faltering rapidly and raising pressure on policymakers to deliver more stimulus to shore up activity… https://t.co/qSpLf808Hk   @Ben__Rickert: The most important chart in the world right now: US Dollar Index breaking down from multi-month bear flag and about to fall off a cliff. https://t.co/nmBQZoyBGF   BofA: tough to get recession when the budget deficit is 9% GDP https://t.co/n96QIWNzHA   We have noted that though the Fed has hiked rates aggressively over the past year or so, the rate hikes have been more than overset by Team Biden’s aggressive fiscal spending.    Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius: “We are cutting our probability that a US recession will start in the next 12 months” to 20% from 25%. The recent data have reinforced our confidence that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a recession.”   The NY Fed: Application rates declined to 11.9 percent for auto loans and 12.5 percent for credit card limit requests, but increased to 24.8 percent for credit cards, 6.5 percent for mortgages, and 5.3 percent for mortgage refinances.  The overall rejection rate for credit applicants increased to 21.8 percent, the highest level since June 2018. The increase was broad-based across age groups and highest among those with credit scores below 680.     The rejection rate for auto loans increased to 14.2 percent from 9.1 percent in February, a new series high. It increased for credit cards, credit card limit increase requests, mortgages, and mortgage refinance applications to 21.5 percent, 30.7 percent, 13.2 percent, and 20.8 percent, respectively…       The average reported probability that a loan application will be rejected increased sharply for all loan types. It rose to 30.7 percent for auto loans, 32.8 percent for credit cards, 42.4 percent for credit limit increase requests, 46.1 percent for mortgages, and 29.6 percent for mortgage refinance applications. The readings for auto loans, mortgages, and credit card limit increase requests are all new series highs… https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/credit-access#/   Ford to slash prices of EV F-150 Lightning pickup by up to $10,000 https://t.co/HR2rBZ1JcJ   Ford slashes prices of F-150 Lightning trucks as EV battle with Tesla heats up https://trib.al/DjOqZDX   ‘Massive US Oil Caverns’ Are Now Empty, Will Take ‘Decades to Refill’ Thanks to Biden https://t.co/6DffRnmwx2   US sending fighter jets, warship to Gulf region to protect ships from Iranian seizures https://news.yahoo.com/us-sending-fighter-jets-warship-191716821.html   ESUs traded listlessly but in negative territory from the Nikkei opening until a modest rally appeared near 3:10 ET.  The rally peaked at 4:30 ET.  ESUs then sank until they hit the daily low of 4528.50 at 8:10 ET.  It was time for the usual suspects to get long for the expected NYSE opening rally and the Monday rally.  Also, pump & dumpers got long to exploit guppy traders that buy on or just after the NYSE opening.   Because the majority of traders are bullish, buying persisted until the daily highs were hit at 15:20 ET.  ESUs peaked at 4560.75.  ESUs sank 8 handles into the close of day-trader liquidation.   USUs got slammed during European trading but rallied in concert with stocks after the 8 ET bond market opening.  After turning modestly positive, bonds went inert until they fell back into negative territory near 13:30 ET.  USUs then vacillated between modest gains and losses.   Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied during US trading on season upward biases Fangs soared on pattern buying ahead of earnings   Negative aspects of previous session Bonds struggled; stocks and ESUs sank during late trading   Ambiguous aspects of previous session How will stocks act during Q2 earnings reporting season?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4520.18 Previous session High/Low: 4532.85; 4504.90   Fauci, health officials accused of illegally approving $26 billion in grants using taxpayer dollars  https://t.co/0uap2ysAYo   @MarioNawfal: META’S TWITTER CLONE DYING A FAST DEATH – Usage of the app falls drastically, faster than anyone expected: 1) Daily Active Users dropped from a peak of 45 million when it launched on July 6 to 28 million on July 13. That’s approximately 38% lower.  2) Time spent per user has tanked from 20 mins on July 7 to around 5 mins by July 11. That’s a 75% reduction in usage over 4 days!     During the same period, Twitter metrics remained virtually unchanged. The exodus many feared yet again did not materialize… https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1680926125000646656   Rep. Jim Jordan wants Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg to hand over data on Threads content moderation – “Since the Committee’s [Feb. 15] subpoena to Meta, we have obtained additional evidence that the federal government has coerced or colluded with technology, social media, and other companies to moderate content online… Given that Meta has censored First Amendment-protected speech as a result of government agencies’ requests and demands in the past, the Committee is concerned about potential 1st Amendment violations that have occurred… on the Threads platform… https://trib.al/0coOX8V   No wonder Team Biden despised Twitter.  It fact checked him twice on Monday.   @POTUS: Right now, real wages for the average American worker is higher than it was before the pandemic, with lower wage workers seeing the largest gains. That’s Bidenomics.     Directly addresses the Tweet’s claim: On 3/15/20 when US COVID lockdowns began real wages adjusted for inflation (AFI) were $11.15. As of 7/16/23 real wages AFI are $11.05. Real wages AFI remain lower (not higher) than before the pandemic.   @POTUS: One year after its launch, our Administration’s 988 suicide and crisis hotline has helped 5 million Americans when they needed it most.     Trump signed the 988 Hotline bill.  New Law Creates 988 Hotline For Mental Health Emergencies  October 19, 2020  https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/19/925447354/new-law-creates-988-hotline-for-mental-health-emergencies   How exactly does Social Security evaluate a disability claim based on alcoholism or drug addiction? Social Security employs a 5-step sequential evaluation process to determine if you qualify for disability benefits under the SSDI and/or SSI programs. At each phase of a disability claim, there is an adjudicator, or decision-maker. At the Initial Application and Reconsideration phases, the decision-maker is a Disability Determination Service (DDS) Examiner in consultation with a DDS Physician. At the Hearing phase, the decision-maker is the Administrative Law Judge who often consults with a Medical Expert (ME). The following evaluation is employed by the adjudicator at each phase… https://www.quikaid.com/article/drugs-alcohol-disability   BlackRock names Aramco boss (Amin Nasser) to board https://www.reuters.com/business/blackrock-names-aramco-boss-board-2023-07-17/   Disney Beclowns Itself After Calling Leaked Snow White Pics ‘Fake’ Not dwarfs, but ‘magical creatures,’ so to ‘avoid reinforcing stereotypes’… a Latina actress as Snow White… In response to the leaked picture, Disney originally told the Daily Beast: “The photos are fake and not from our production. We are currently trying to have the Daily Mail issue a correction.”    Except, they weren’t fake.  Disney then walked back their statement, verifying that the photos were indeed from their woke production, but weren’t official… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/disney-beclowns-itself-after-calling-leaked-snow-white-pics-fake   Today – This is expiry week; traders want to be long for the usual manipulation plus Netflix and Tesla’s earnings that are due after tomorrow’s close.  So, barring unexpected and profoundly negative news, traders will buy dips and be very comfortable playing the long side.  Except for Fangs and big tech, stocks have struggled in the past few sessions.  ESUs are -3.50 at 20:20 ET.    Expected economic data: June Retail Sales 0.5% m/m, ex-Autos 0.4%, Ex-Autos & Gas 0.4%; June Industrial Production & Mfg Production 0.0% m/m, Capacity Utilization 79.5%; May Business Inventories 0.2%; July NAHB Housing Market Index 56   Expected earnings: BK 1.22, PNC 3.28, BAC .84, LMT 6.43, MS 1.20, JBHT 1.92   S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4293; 100-day MA: 4166; 150-day MA: 4103; 200-day MA: 4035 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,725; 100-day MA: 33,400; 150-day MA: 33,473; 200-day MA: 33,112 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is negative, MACD is positive – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4256.94 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4436.23 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4508.89 triggers a sell signal   @simonateba: THE NUMBERS ARE IN: How does he intend to win? – President Joe Biden spending virtually no money for his re-election campaign. In the second quarter of this year, according to fresh data, his campaign had only four people on the payroll, spent less than $1,500 on travel, accommodations, and airfare. In all, Biden’s campaign spent $1.1 million in the second quarter of this year. His former boss @BarackObama spent more than $11 million in the second quarter of 2011 when he was running for re-election, and he barely won re-election… how does Biden intend to win?   Joe won’t run or his handlers will utilize the same ballot harvesting and mail-in vote chicanery.   EXCLUSIVE: Fingerprints Found on Cocaine Bag at White House, Security Sources Say “We know who handled it,” one security source said. “We’ve known since last week.”… Soldier of Fortune on Wednesday filed formal Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests with three agencies that are likeliest to know about the fingerprint results. The agencies are the Washington, D.C. Fire and Emergency Medical Services Department; the Metropolitan Police Department of the District of Columbia; and the U.S. Secret Service… https://sofmag.com/fingerprints-cocaine-white-house/   GOP Senator (Ex-Army Ranger and Bronze Star winner) Tom Cotton (AR) claims the Secret Service did NOT interview Hunter Biden in regard to the cocaine found in the White House.   @DrEliDavid: John Kerry’s private jet emitted more carbon in a single flight than your car in your entire lifetime. Here he denies under oath that he ever owned a private jet. Gets busted, and then said he didn’t own the plane, his wife did.  https://t.co/H4hWF6VpgG   Tucker Carlson’s show on Twitter makes ad deal with anti-ESG shopping app Tucker Carlson has agreed to a seven-figure ad deal with Public Square (PublicSq.), a conservative-friendly shopping app, for his Twitter show… https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/16/tucker-carlson-twitter-show-strikes-ad-deal.html   @TuckerCarlson after Chris Christie said Tucker was wrong on Ukraine: Sounds like this could use a longer conversation. We just asked @GovChristie to sit down and explain his views on Ukraine. He refused. You hate to think that Chris Christie is a blustery coward who plays the tough guy with sycophants at ABC but won’t answer real questions, but who knows? We hope he reconsiders.   Boston mayor under fire after sending list of critics and protesters to police https://t.co/2uCRFoM196   @emeriticus: Team Trump has no real response for Trump saying he plans to give Zelensky more weapons than even Biden, so they’re just trying to lie about what he said, but they aren’t doing a good job. I think they know this was one of their main selling points for him. They don’t have a choice but to lie and exploit the trust they’ve built with their audience because Zelensky has already said Ukraine “would not agree” to cede any territory to Russia for a quick end to the war, so Trump’s “24-hour peace plan” is really just escalation by another name.   LA police union boss tells cops to leave the city: ‘Go somewhere that understands your worth’ Los Angeles Police Department has lost about 1,000 officers since 2019 https://www.foxnews.com/us/la-police-union-boss-tells-cops-leave-city-go-somewhere-understands-your-worth   “Every high civilization decays by forgetting obvious things.” — G.K. Chesterton

GREG HUNTER 

 

I will see you on WEDNESDAY