JULY 25/GOLD CLOSED UP $2.45 TO $1962.55 WHILE SILVER ALSO HAD A STRONG DAY UP 24 CENTS TO $24.65//PLATINUM WAS UP $6.05 TO $969.80 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS UP $6.05 TO $1295.00/CHINA TO INITIATE MORE STIMULUS TO SUPPORT THEIR PLUMMETING ECONOMY//CHINA REPLACES ITS VANISHING FOREIGN MINISTER//EU REPORTS ON PLUMMETING LOAN DEMAND//UKRAINE VS RUSSIA UPDATES//RUSSIA ATTACKS A DANUBE PORT WITHIN YARDS TO A BORDER WITH ROMANIA//TENSIONS ESCALATE//COVID/VACCINE UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER/SLAY NEWS/EVOL NEWS/NEWS ADDICTS//ISRAEL IN A STATE OF CHAOS AFTER THE AFFIRMATIVE VOTE AS DRS GO ON STRIKE//YELLOW CARRIERS AND FED EX UPDATES/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
132 C SG AMERICAS 26 159 C MAREX CAPITAL M 117 123 190 H BMO CAPITAL 56 365 H MAREX CAPITAL M 12 8 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 8 661 C JP MORGAN 60 685 C RJ OBRIEN 3 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 40 30 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 9 737 C ADVANTAGE 102 117 905 C ADM 13
TOTAL: 362 362 MONTH TO DATE: 4,347
JPMorgan stopped 0/0 contracts.
FOR JULY:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2023. CONTRACT: 0 NOTICES FOR 0 OZ or 0 TONNES
total notices so far: 3275 contracts for 327,500 oz (10.1866 tonnes)
FOR JULY:
SILVER NOTICES: 10 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 50,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5065 for 25,345,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $2.45
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.24 AT THE SLV// SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FORM THE SLV//
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 452.480 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2020 CONTRACTS TO 146,629 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.23 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A STRONG SIZED 734 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH . CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: 734 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.23). AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1450CONTRACTS. WE HAD A HUGE 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 5.25MILLION OZ.). WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG WITH MANIPULATION NOW MID MONTH AND BEYOND, DUE TO (TAS) MANIPULATION.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 570 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 16.110 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 45,000 QUEUE JUMP + 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR TODAY//NEW STANDING: 25.450 MILLION OZ + 5.25 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR: NEW TOTAL 30.700 MILLION OZ// // GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) GOOD NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (734CONTRACTS)/ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –397 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 15 days, total 16,076 contracts: OR 80.380 MILLION OZ (1072 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 80.380 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 80.380 MILLION OZ (LARGER THAN LAST MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2020 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.23 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 570 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF 16.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MASSIVE 45,000 OZ QUEUE. JUMP + 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY + (PRIOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK : 5.25 MILLION OZ): TOTAL NOW STANDING 25.450 MILLION OZ NORMAL STANDING + 5.25 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 30.700 MILLION OZ.///// .. WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF1450 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG 734//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION TO CONTAIN SILVER PRICE’S RISE. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TODAY (734) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE./
WE HAD 10 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 50,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7890 CONTRACTS TO 487,232 AND CLOSER TO TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED: 116 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 7890CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $4.65 LOSS IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY. AT 5.1975 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0000 TONNE QUEUE JUMP: NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY: 10.345 TONNES// + /A FAIR (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 2445 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $4.65 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 10,035 OI CONTRACTS (31.213 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2145CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 487,232
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,035 CONTRACTS WITH 7890 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR 2145 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,035CONTRACTS OR 31.213 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 2445 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2145 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (7890) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 10,035 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 5.1975 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.0000 TONNE QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL 10.345 TONNES ///// /3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH MINOR TAS LIQUIDATION TO CONTAIN GOLD’S PRICE//4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2445 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
JULY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 34,250 CONTRACTS OR 3,425,000 OZ OR 106.53 TONNES IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2283 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 106.53 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 106.53/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.00% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 106.53 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A LARGE SIZED 2020 CONTRACTS OI TO 149,974 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 570 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 570and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 570 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2020 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 570 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1450 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 7.25 MILLION OZ
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 67.36 PTS OR 2.13% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 766.25 PTS OR 4.10% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 18.43 PTS OR 0.06% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.50 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.1466 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.1412 /Oil UP TO 78.73 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 82.65 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7890CONTRACTS UP TO 487,232 DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $4.65 ON MONDAY.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2145 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 2145 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2145 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 10,035 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2145LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7890 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $4.65//MONDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 2445 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS INITIATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GOLD/SILVER MARKET AS RAIDS WILL SURELY BE UPON US TRYING TO CONTAIN OUR PRECIOUS METALS RISE IN PRICE. IT MAY BE TO NO AVAIL!!
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JULY (10.345) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.345 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $4.65) //// BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 10,035 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN GOLD’S RISE. THE TAS ISSUED MONDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. THE MASSIVE T.A.S. ISSUED LAST MONDAY WAS USED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK CONTAINING GOLD’S RISE.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 31.261 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY. (5.11974 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.0000 TONNES//TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY GOLD: 10.345 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $4.65.
WE HAD + ADDED 116 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST AFTER TRADING ENDED LAST NIGHT
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 10,035 CONTRACTS OR 1,003,500 OZ OR 31.213 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3275 notices 327500 OZ 10.1866 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
1 dealer deposit:
i) Into brinks: 31,805.675 oz
total dealer deposits: 31,805.675 oz
total customer deposits: 0 oz
we had 1 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of Brinks 128.604 oz (4 kilobars)
total withdrawals: 128.604 oz
Adjustments; 0/
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.
For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 51 contracts having LOST 5 contracts. We had 5 contracts served on Monday. Thus we gained 0 contracts or an additional nil oz of gold will stand at the comex.
AUGUST LOST 30,811 contracts DOWN to 129,559 contracts. We have 4 more reading days before the big August contract delivery month.
SEPT gained 154 contracts to stand at 869
We had 0 contracts filed for today representing nil oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3275 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (51 CONTRACT) minus the number of notices served upon today 0 x 100 oz per contract equals 332,600 OZ OR 10.345 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of July.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULYcontract month: No of notices filed so far (3275) x 100 oz + (51) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz) which equals 332,600oz standing OR 10.345 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 10.345 TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,274,188.234 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 11,673,156.913 (363.08 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,601,031.316 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,654,315 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 300.289 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
JULY 25
//2023// THE JULY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
687,989.620 oz CNT Delaware JPMorgan Loomis
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1227,955.463 oz Brinks CNT Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
10 CONTRACT(S) (50,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
25 contracts (125,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
5065 Contracts (25.345,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 3 deposits customer account:
i) Into Brinks 600,394.340 oz
ii) Into CNT 600,570.608 oz
iii) Into Delaware 26,990.515 oz
total customer deposits: 1,227,915.463 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139.331 million oz/277.172 million =50.16% of comex .//
Comex withdrawals 4
i) Out of CNT 1001.11 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 999.800 oz
iii) Our od JPMorgan: 605,660.310 oz
iv) Out of Loomis 80,328.400 oz
total: 687,989.620 oz
adjustments: 1 dealer to customer Brinks
9760.400 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 35.564 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 277.172 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2023 OI: 35 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 9 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 9 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 45,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN JULY,
AUGUST GAINED 2 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 831
SEPT HAS A LOSS OF 2624 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 122,502
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 10 for 50,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 52,048 fair /
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 58,249 fair
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5065 x 5,000 oz = 25,345,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(35) and the number of notices served upon today 10 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY/2023 contract month: 5065 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (35) – number of notices served upon today (10 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 25.450 million oz + 0.0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//PRIOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALS 5.25 MILLION OZ /NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 30.700 MILLION OZ..WE HAVE 35 MILLION OZ OF REGISTERED SILVER AT THE COMEX//
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JULY 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.20 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES
JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES
JULY 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.07 TONNES
JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $23.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 14/WITH GOLD UP $0.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES
JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES
JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $24.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.95 TONNES
JULY 11/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.0 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.26 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.26 TONNES.
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES.
JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES
JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.90 TONNES
JULY 3/WITH GOLD UP $1.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES//
JUNE 30/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES
JUNE 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.81 TONNES
JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.10 TONNES
JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WITHDRAWALS OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $0.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44 TONNES
JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44
GLD INVENTORY: 919.00 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JULY 25/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/
JULY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/
JULY 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.101 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/
JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.468 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 454.107 MILLION OZ/
JULY 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.856 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 14/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.21 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.881 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .020 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.822 MILLION OZ/
JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.802 MILLION OZ
JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ
JULY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.667 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ//
JULY5/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JULY 3/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.377 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.763 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.764 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 27/WILVER SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 734,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ
JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 469.793 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A NET DEPOSIT OF 6.61 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OVER THESE PAST TWO DAYS//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.793 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.784 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 89 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ
JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.377 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.642 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 14/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 735,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.019 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.515 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.754 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ//
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES/SILVER
BIX WEIR
very unusual for Newmont to default because of a strike. This is dangerous to our bankers who have massive derivatives (short positions) on silver. There are 100 to one paper to physical silver contracts out there. So let’s watch this one carefully
(Bix Weir)
ALERT! Largest Silver Mine in the World Declares “FORCE MAJEURE!” GOT PHYSICAL SILVER?! (Bix Weir)
The largest Silver mine in the world, Mexico’s Penasquito Mine, has been shut down for 2 months forcing it’s owner, Newmont Mining, to DEFAULT on Silver Deliveries and declare a “Force Majeure!”
A huge story by itself but the FACT that Newmont Mining chose to default on the forward delivery contracts instead of supplementing silver from other operations gives us a glimpse into just how scarce physical silver is!!
BUY! BUY! BUY!
ALERT! Largest Silver Mine in the World Declares “FORCE MAJEURE!” GOT PHYSICAL SILVER?! (Bix Weir)
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1466
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1412
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 67.36 PTS OR 2.13%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 766.25 PTS OR 4.10%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 18.43 PTS OR 0.06%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 101.19 EURO FALLS TO 1.1048 DOWN 15 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.466 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 141.43/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: UP// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.2423***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield RISES to 4.072*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.468…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.723
3j Gold at $1961.05 silver at: 24.66 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 32 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 90.14//
3m oil into the 78 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 141.48// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, RISES TO 0.466% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8687 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9566 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.903 UP 5 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.957 UP 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.879 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.96…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 7 BASIS PTS AT 4.3115
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
US Futures Rise, Chinese Stocks Soar As Politburo Vows Support, FOMC Meeting Begins
TUESDAY, JUL 25, 2023 – 08:16 AM
US futures are higher with bond yields also rising higher in quiet, cautious trade ahead of a barrage of earnings including MSFT and GOOGL later today, as well as central bank announcements tomorrow (the FOMC meeting begins today) and Thursday from the ECB and BOJ. S&P futures were fractionally higher, rising 0.1%, as a surge in Chinese stocks spilled over; Nasdaq 100 futures rose as much as 0.4%, after a weak session Monday, with Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. due to report their first earnings since artificial-intelligence fever broke out. Shares in both companies were about 0.5% higher in New York pre-market trading as investors waited to see if the results justify the companies’ hefty year-to-date share gains. Treasury yields climbed across the curve, while the dollar and oil both reversed earlier losses; iron ore prices climbed while gold reversed modest gains. Today focus will be on MSFT and GOOGL earnings after the close. On macro, we get Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed at 10am ET.
In premarket trading, megacap stocks again lead higher. Shares in General Motors and General Electric gained in premarket trading as both companies raised their earnings guidance, while NXP Semiconductors NV advanced as its results beat expectations. China stock traded in the US rallied after China’s Politburo was far more dovish than expected: HSI and CSI added 4.1% and 2.9% today; FXI closed with a 2.1% gain yesterday. Here are the most notable premarket movers:
Goldman Sachs Group shares slipped as Citi cut its rating on the stock to neutral from buy, saying that the company’s targets are achievable, but it will take time and a better investment banking environment to attain them.
Walmart rises 1.2% in premarket trading after being upgraded to overweight from neutral at Piper Sandler, which said the retailer has a chance to further extend market share gains as grocery inflation subsides. The broker also raises its price target on Walmart to a Street high.
Rackspace Technology falls as much as 4.3% in premarket trading on Tuesday as Citigroup downgrades the infrastructure software company’s stock to sell from neutral, saying the valuation does not reflect the estimated downside potential.
US-listed Chinese stocks extend their rally in premarket trading Tuesday, after Beijing’s pledge to support the economy spurred fresh bets that more stimulus measures could be on the way. Alibaba (BABA US) +1.6%, Baidu +1.8%.
Zevia is downgraded to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs after the beverage producer reported preliminary 2Q revenue that missed estimates due to supply chain interruptions. The broker said it now sees a balanced risk/reward ratio, and therefore moves to the sidelines.
AMC drops as much as 15% in premarket trading — narrowing the spread between its common and preferred shares — after a Delaware court judge sent a new letter to the company and its shareholders about the movie-theater chain’s stock-conversion plan.
Some 48% of the S&P by market cap, or companies with a market value of $16.3 trillion, are reporting earnings this week. Despite stocks trading near 2023 highs, investors seem unwilling to place big bets, given uncertainty over what signals Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policymakers might send, with the Fed’s potential policy path, especially, crucial for global markets.
“Investors are unlikely to feel safe enough to get into the equities water before such an eventful week,” Mizuho International Plc strategists Evelyne Gomez-Liechti and Helen Rodriguez wrote in a note.
Despite the listless mood, hopes have grown that the US economy will be able to escape a sharp recession. That’s lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average 5% so far this month, as investors price a better outlook for companies making industrial equipment and heavy machinery. That’s put the Dow index in the midst of its longest winning streak in more than six years.
European shares also edged higher, lifted by resources firms such as Anglo American Plc and Rio Tinto Plc that benefited after China’s Politburo signaled more support. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.2% after the Hang Seng finished with gains of 4.1%. Mining stocks have outperformed while Adidas and Bayer are all higher post-earnings. Among individual movers, consumer-goods giant Unilever Plc stood out, gaining as much as 5.7% after beating sales estimates, while spirits group Remy Cointreau SA surged after Chinese sales helped it surpass forecasts.European market sentiment was dampened by a euro-area bank lending survey which showed a record plunge in loan demand from the bloc’s companies. Alongside a dismal business outlook reading from Germany, the data raise questions over the ECB’s capacity to hike interest rates much beyond the 25 basis points priced for this Thursday’s meeting. Here are some of the most notable European movers:
Unilever shares rise about 5.7% after the consumer-staples company reported better-than-expected second-quarter sales. The beat showed continued volume resilience, according to Morgan Stanley
Adidas shares gained as much as 6.6% in Frankfurt trading after the sale of the sportswear retailer’s inventory of Yeezy sneakers from a canceled partnership with the rapper Kanye West
Randstad rises as much as 4.2%, reversing a decline in early trading, as investors digested a set of results showing second- quarter underlying Ebita beat estimates while the Dutch staffing firm missed on revenue and gross profits
Bayer gained 1.8%, reversing an initial drop of as much as 3.2%, as investors look beyond an expected cut to 2023 guidance following a slew of warnings from chemical companies
Logitech shares gain as much as 6.3% in Zurich after the Swiss maker of computer peripherals boosted its outlook for the first half of fiscal 2024. Sales for gaming and pointing devices beat estimates
Compass shares fall as much as 4.7% after the catering company reported 3Q earnings. Tuesday’s update is “fine,” but “investors may have been looking for slightly more,” according to Barclays
DSV shares decline as much as 6.3%. While the transport and logistics company’s second-quarter Ebit before significant items came in ahead of expectations, the Air & Sea segment missed estimates
Dassault Systemes shares fall as much as 6.1%, their biggest drop since April, after the software firm reported slower growth in key areas from its cloud-based design platform
Elior sinks as much as 10%, biggest intraday drop since May 17, after the French catering company cuts its FY profit margin forecast for the second time this year, citing higher costs due to inflation and new contracts
Thales shares fall as much as 2.7% after the French defense group reached an agreement with Thoma Bravo for the acquisition of 100% of Imperva based on an enterprise value of $3.6 billion
Babcock shares drop as much as 3.9% on Tuesday, snapping an 11-day winning run, as Liberum restarts coverage with a hold rating and says last week’s results were “not as good as they looked”
Idorsia shares tumble as much as 17%, touching an all-time low, after the Swiss pharmaceuticals producer reported an operating loss for 2Q and suspended its 2025 profitability target
Attention is now turning to LVMH, Europe’s biggest company on what it says about Chinese consumer trends in its report later in the day.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced, lifted by Chinese shares after the country’s top leadership signaled fresh support for the ailing economy, while investors braced for key central bank meetings this week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1%, led by material and communication services shares. Most regional markets rallied, with technology and property shares propelling mainland Chinese and Hong Kong benchmarks. Chinese stocks drive Asian equity gains following an ADR rally in New York on Politburo’s pro-growth message. Hang Seng Tech index surges as much as 5.3% and H shares jump more than 4%. The CSI 300 rallied 2.6% – poised for its best day in five months – as developer shares soar the most in seven months.
China’s top leaders on Monday pledged to boost consumption and offer more support for the troubled property sector to help revive a slowing economy. The statement from the Politburo meeting was taken positively by investors, who say the outcome was better than expected. “The Politburo met earlier and was more dovish than expected, promising housing easing, local debt resolution, and a boost to capital markets. It could be a defining moment, akin to October 2018,” Morgan Stanley economists including Robin Xing wrote in a note. “We expect a meaningful growth rebound in 4Q, keeping full-year growth at the government’s target of 5%.”
Other Asian markets are narrowly mixed: Japanese stocks traded in a narrow range as investors awaited policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The Fed is expected to further raise interest rates, while the BOJ is projected to stand pat as it waits for sustainable inflation. Kospi nudged higher while the ASX 200 was positive with the index led by gains in the mining and energy sectors amid recent strength in underlying commodity prices owing to the Chinese stimulus hopes. Key stock gauges in India closed flat on Tuesday while small and mid-sized companies continued their rally to new peaks as ongoing earnings season unfolds. The S&P BSE Sensex was little changed at 66,355.71 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index was also flat at 19,680.60. BSE Ltd.’s small- and mid-cap stocks rallied more than 0.3% each.
In FX, the Bloomberg’s Dollar Spot Index traded in the red, on track to snap five sessions of gains, while the euro touched a two-week high against the greenback after China signaled renewed support for its struggling economy.
The offshore yuan jumped to its strongest level in more than a week after the People’s Bank of China continued its support for the currency.
The euro dropped and German bonds briefly recovered losses after a bank lending survey released by the European Central Bank showed a bigger-than-expected fall in demand for loans due to higher interest rates. A soft reading for the German business outlook also weighed on the currency.
EUR/GBP declined as much as 0.3% to 0.8603, lowest in a week: The pound rose, on course to end its longest losing streak since March 2020 against the US dollar; GBP/USD rose as much as 0.3% to $1.2865
The Australian dollar led the advance among the Group-of-10 currencies, gaining 0.5% as optimism on China spurred exporters to get some hedging on board before Wednesday’s local inflation data, according to Asia-based FX traders
In rates, treasury yields are higher by 2bp-3bp across the curve as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1%; 2s10s curve is optically steeper after switch to new 2-year note sold at auction Monday. The new 2-year trades around 4.87% after drawing 4.823% in the auction, highest yield for an auction of the tenor since 2007. Still, vs the 10-year at 3.89% its 98bp spread is tighter than the old 2-year note’s; the higher-yielding old 2-year traded nearly 106bp cheap to the 10- year Monday. Bunds are in the red although they briefly pared declines after German IFO missed expectations. German 10-year yields are up 2bps. Auction cycle continues with $43b 5-year. Apart from new 2-year, benchmark yields are highest since July 12 as wagers that the Fed will raise rates again this year after an expected quarter-point hike at the meeting that concludes Wednesday have increased somewhat. Ahead of auction at 1pm New York time, WI 5-year yield at around 4.15% is higher than 5-year auction stops since October; last month’s drew 4.019%.
Commodity prices were mostly on the rise after Chinese leaders used this week’s Politburo meeting to flag more aid to the economy. Oil prices held near three-month highs, with brent futures trading near $83 while copper and steel-making staple iron ore both rose, given their importance for China’s property sector. US-listed Chinese stocks also extended their rally in premarket trading.
In Crypto, Binance and CEO Zhao are planning to seek a dismissal of the CFTC complaint, according to Bloomberg. Crypto exchange Kraken says it is investigating reports that some clients are experiencing funding delays. UK Information Commission will examine Worldcoin (WDC), a project by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, according to a spokesperson cited by CoinDesk.
Looking ahead, the US economic calendar includes July Philadelphia Fed non- manufacturing activity at 8:30am, May FHFA house price index and S&P CoreLogic home prices at 9am, and July Conference Board consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing at 10am; Fed speakers are in self-imposed quiet period ahead of Wednesday’s rate decision
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 4,591.50
MXAP up 1.3% to 168.30
MXAPJ up 1.9% to 532.87
Nikkei little changed at 32,682.51
Topix up 0.2% to 2,285.38
Hang Seng Index up 4.1% to 19,434.40
Shanghai Composite up 2.1% to 3,231.52
Sensex little changed at 66,334.14
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,339.67
Kospi up 0.3% to 2,636.46
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 466.57
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.45%
Euro little changed at $1.1063
Brent Futures down 0.3% to $82.46/bbl
Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,960.69
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 101.33
Top Overnight News
US national security officials are scrutinizing an Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund’s planned $3bn takeover of New York-based Fortress Investment Group amid concerns in Washington over the United Arab Emirates’ ties to China. FT
Unilever reported higher than expected underlying sales growth in the first half of the year driven by continued price rises, but sales volumes were flat as the cost of living crisis squeezed consumers. The company said “we have passed peak inflation”, adding that it had moderated its price rises. Prices rose 9.4 per cent in the first half, compared to 13.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022. FT
The slow pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive against entrenched Russian invaders is dimming hopes that negotiations for an end to the fighting could come this year and raising the specter of an open-ended conflict, according to Western officials. WSJ
Corporate loan demand in the euro area fell the most on record in the second quarter as rate hikes started to bite, an ECB survey showed. Demand for mortgages and other consumer borrowing declined, and lenders expect more tightening to come. Germany is probably still stuck in a recession, Ifo’s head said, as its business outlook worsened in July. BBG
Chipmakers warned that shortages of technicians, engineers and computer scientists are threatening US plans for rapid expansion of the sector. About 115,000 new jobs are expected by 2030 but current graduation rates imply more than half may remain unfilled, an industry body said. BBG
McCarthy says House probes into the foreign business activities of the Biden family rose to the level of an impeachment inquiry. The Hill
DeSantis is no longer Trump’s main rival as the Florida governor’s campaign continues to falter. London Times
The FDIC hit out at some US banks for incorrectly reporting the amount of their uninsured deposits, after dozens of lenders restated their figures downward earlier this year. The regulator said banks were wrong to exclude deposits that were collateralized by pledged assets. The level of uninsured deposits at banks came into focus after the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank. BBG
General Motors has raised its guidance for the second time this year, citing strong customer demand. The Detroit carmaker predicted it will earn between $12bn and $14bn this year, having raised the bar in April when it said it would bring in $12.5bn at most. FT
US data surprises have been positive in the last couple of months, while European and China data have undershot…
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mostly higher amid a rally in Chinese stocks after the Politburo’s support pledges, although gains for the rest of the region were capped after soft global PMIs and with some cautiousness heading into risk events. ASX 200 was positive with the index led by gains in the mining and energy sectors amid recent strength in underlying commodity prices owing to the Chinese stimulus hopes. Nikkei 225 lagged as speculation remained rife regarding this week’s BoJ meeting with source reports noting the central bank is to consider a large increase in its 2023 inflation outlook and could raise its forecast to around 2.5%. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were boosted with gains led by a surge in property and tech stocks after the Politburo’s support pledges which lifted the Hang Seng Tech Index by around 5%, while the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index rose by a double-digit percentage from early on as the Politburo’s statement omitted the language that homes are not for speculation.
Top Asian News
China’s NDRC held a meeting with private firms including ANTA (2020 HK), NIO (9866 HK) and TCL where it listened to the companies’ opinions and suggestions on the current economic situation, according to Reuters.
European bourses are managing to eke out marginal gains, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, with macro drivers downbeat since the APAC upside seen on Chinese stimulus. Mining names outperform given Politburo stimulus while Unilever +5.0% is supporting the FTSE 100 and AEX post-earnings; on that point, European heavyweight LVMH reports after the Paris close. Stateside, futures are in the green but only modestly so with specific drivers somewhat light ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC and with numerous large-cap earnings due in- and after-hours today; ES +0.1%.
Top European News
ECB Euro area bank lending survey: net 14% of EZ banks tightened credit standards in Q2 vs. 27% in Q1. Banks expect more moderate net tightening on loans to firms in Q3. The cumulated net tightening since the beginning of 2022 has been substantial. Firms’ net demand for loans fell strongly in the second quarter of 2023, dropping to an all-time low since the start of the survey in 2003.
EU ministers have given the final approval to the EU chips, according to the European Council.
UK pensions regulator warned that pension fund trustees must consider widening the range of their investments including in start-ups and other illiquid assets or face “robust intervention”, according to FT.
5.7 magnitude earthquake occurred in central Turkey, via EMSC.
FX
DXY slips within 101.430-180 range before another boost from the Euro after weak German Ifo.
EUR/USD tests Fib support at 1.1055 from 1.1086 peak near 1bln option expiry interest.
Aussie rebounds alongside Yuan ahead of CPI data, AUD/USD probes 0.6770 expiries from 0.6726 base, USD/CNY and USD/CNH both sub-7.1400 from 7.1600+ and 7.1900 respective highs.
Yen retains recovery momentum vs Dollar between 141.62-21 bounds amidst demand at the overnight Tokyo fix.
Pound holds onto the 1.2800 handle against Buck amidst supportive EUR/GBP tailwinds within 0.8637-03 range.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1406 vs exp. 7.2044 (prev. 7.1451)
China’s major state-owned banks were seen selling dollars in the offshore and onshore spot FX markets in early Asian trades, according to sources cited by Reuters.
Fixed Income
Bond bears back in the driving seat as post-EU PMI momentum wanes and EGBs only bounce partially after dire German Ifo survey.
Bunds back below par within 133.77-14 range, Gilts remain soft between 96.78-38 parameters irrespective of decent demand for 2038 DMO issuance and T-note nearer 111-23+ trough than 112-01+ peak ahead of US data, consumer confidence and 5 year supply.
BTPs also on the back foot following mixed Italian auctions.
Commodities
WTI and Brent are now mostly softer intraday as the complex came off the best levels seen overnight with added pressure from the German Ifo Survey which, in fitting with yesterday’s PMIs, underscored a worsening economic situation in Germany.
Spot gold continues to oscillate on either side of its 100 DMA (1,962.91/oz) ahead of a triple-threat of central banks including the likes of the FOMC tomorrow, ECB on Thursday, and BoJ on Friday.
Base metals have been underpinned this week by the Chinese Politburo meeting which reignited some optimism in industrials via the hint of further stimulus, albeit the upside is currently capped by the German economic woes telegraphed by the Ifo data.
Agriculture remains a theme as supply risks grow with Chicago Wheat rallying some 10% overnight at one point, whilst corn prices were also supported.
Kremlin says it is impossible to return to lapsed Black Sea Grain deal.
Russian Finance Ministry plans to cut the discount it uses to set taxes on the country’s crude oil exports to USD 20/bbl from USD 25/bbl currently, according to Finance Minister Siluanov cited by Reuters.
Kazakh Energy Minister said there are no issues with shipping Kazakh crude via Russia amid Black Sea tensions.
Kazakhstan’s Tengizchevroil has reduced daily output by 12-13k/T due to unscheduled maintenance, via Deputy Energy Minister.
China’s H1 gold output rose 2.2% Y/Y to 178.6 metric tons and gold consumption rose 16.4% Y/Y to 554.9 metric tons, according to Reuters citing state media.
Geopolitics
White House said the US does not support attacks inside of Russia when asked about the drone strikes in Moscow.
Japan launched a protest against North Korea over its missile launch, while it noted that North Korea’s missile launch is unacceptable and threatens not only Japan but also the regional and international society’s peace and stability.
China’s government said a delegation led by Politburo member Li Hongzhong is to visit North Korea from July 26th. Subsequently, a Russian delegation is to visit North Korea this week, led by the Russian Minister of Defence, via KCNA. Additionally, the Russian Defence Ministry says Defence Minister Shoigu ‘s visit to North Korea will contribute to strengthening military relations between the two countries, via Al Arabiya.
Russian authorities have announced the suspension of navigation within the Gulf of Sevastopol, via Al Arabiya.
China’s Foreign Ministry said a senior official of the Japanese defense ministry has grossly interfered in China’s internal affairs, and China is firmly opposed to this and has lodged stern representations with Japan, via Global Times.
Japan and Italy to hold joint fighter jet drills at Komatsu Base Aug 2-10; Japan and Australia to hold joint fighter jet drills at the Base Aug 23-September 15.
US event calendar
08:30: July Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufactu, prior -16.6
09:00: May S&P CS Composite-20 YoY, est. -2.35%, prior -1.70%
09:00: May S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY, prior -0.24%
09:00: May S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. 0.70%, prior 0.91%
10:00: July Conf. Board Consumer Confidenc, est. 112.0, prior 109.7
July Conf. Board Present Situation, prior 155.3
July Conf. Board Expectations, prior 79.3
10:00: July Richmond Fed Business Conditio, prior -12
July Richmond Fed Index, est. -10, prior -7
DB’s Jim reid concludes the overnight wrap
Sentiment has been a bit more negative than markets over the last 24 hours, as weak data from the flash PMIs for July was a bit worrying. However, DM equities just about shrugged it off and US bonds sold off after a weak 2yr Treasury auction, and traded in completely the opposite direction to the way European bonds did after the weak PMIs. The Chinese stimulus announcement yesterday has turned momentum overnight in their bourses, with Chinese real estate stocks up c.+7%, reducing YTD losses to c.-13.7%, so there’s some interesting global push/pull factors going on at the moment. Markets are now awaiting this week’s round of central bank decisions, multiple data releases, and a raft of earnings over the rest of the week.
As you’ll see in the day ahead, there’s lots to look forward to today including earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet after the bell; however, the one I’m most intrigued about is the latest quarterly ECB bank lending survey. The last survey, conducted in the weeks after the March banking stress, saw our aggregate indicator of BLS credit conditions decline to its weakest since the GFC amid a sharp fall in demand for loans and tightening credit standards. Banks did expect a partial rebound in credit conditions in Q2 so we’ll see if that materialised. It’s tough to disentangle recent shocks (energy spike and regional bank/Credit Suisse crisis) and their recovery, from the cyclical (400bps of hikes in a year). As well as a steer on Europe it might also give us clues as to the all important Fed SLOOS next week.
Back to those flash PMI numbers, it became clear things were surprising on the downside from the get-go in the European session. For instance, the French composite PMI hit a 32-month low of 46.6 (vs. 47.7 expected), whilst the manufacturing PMI hit a 38-month low of 44.5 (vs. 46.0 expected). Then in Germany, the composite PMI fell to an 8-month low of 48.3 (vs. 49.8 expected), with the manufacturing PMI diving deeper into contractionary territory, falling to a 38-month low of 38.8 (vs. 41.0 expected). That was then followed up by the Euro Area-wide numbers, where the composite PMI also hit an 8-month low of 48.9 (vs. 49.6 expected).
Outside of the Euro Area the picture was a bit brighter, but to be frank it still wasn’t great. In the US, the composite PMI fell to a 5-month low of 52.0 (vs. 53.0 expected), which added to the signs from other indicators that the economy is decelerating. Likewise in the UK, the composite PMI hit a 6-month low of 50.7 (vs. 52.3 expected). So in both cases the composite PMI was still above the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction, but the numbers were weaker than expected.
Those prints led to a decent sovereign bond rally across Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds (-4.9bps), OATs (-4.7bps) and BTPs (-4.6bps) all moving lower. In part, that was because of growing doubts that the ECB would deliver another hike in September after their move this week. For example, expectations of a second hike by September were down from 65% on Friday to 58% by the close yesterday, so it’s becoming increasingly balanced in terms of market pricing.
For US Treasuries however, it was a somewhat different story ahead of the Fed’s decision tomorrow. 2yr yields were up an impressive +7.7bps to 4.92% given the global data. The sell-off accelerated after the European close as we saw a $42bn auction of 2-year notes issued at 4.823%, the highest interest rate since 2007. The move in the 10yr was more moderate, with a +3.5bps sell-off to 3.87%. Higher inflation breakevens drove things, with the 10yr breakeven up +4.7bps to 2.40%, marking its highest level since SVB’s collapse in early March. The bond sell-off came as investors raised their Fed funds expectations, with the December 2024 pricing up +11.0bps on Monday to 4.145%.
That shift in inflation expectations came against the backdrop of significant commodity price moves yesterday. For instance, wheat (+8.60%) hit a 5-month high, following a Russian attack in Ukrainian ports of Reni and Izmail on the Danube river, which have been used for grain exports. Other agricultural goods have also been affected, with corn (+5.97%) and soybeans (+1.62%) both rising in trading yesterday. Energy prices also moved higher, with Brent crude oil prices (+2.06%) at a 3-month high of $82.74/bbl, while WTI oil prices (+2.17% to $78.74/bbl) outperformed following news of a refinery outage in the US. In aggregate, it’s clear that we’re experiencing one of the strongest commodity advances of the last year now.
Those commodity price moves were helpful for energy stocks, which lifted a broader rally across several equity indices. Among others, the S&P 500 rose +0.40% to close just shy of its 15-month high last week. And there was a particular milestone for the Dow Jones (+0.52%), which rose for an 11th consecutive session for the first time since February 2017. That run of advances in 2017 lasted for 12 consecutive sessions, so another positive day today would match that. And if there were a 13th gain tomorrow, that would match a record last set in January 1987. Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.06%) still posted a very modest gain despite the disappointing PMI data.
In other economic news on Monday, we got a readout from a key economic policy meeting of China’s Politburo, which showed an increased focus on the “new difficulties and challenges” facing the economy. The meeting did not offer immediate stimulus measures but our China economists see the meeting as setting an encouraging tone for stronger policy easing down the road. See their reaction note here for more details.
Asian equity markets are mostly higher this morning as a result. The Hang Seng (+3.17%) is leading gains buoyed by locally-listed Chinese stocks while the CSI (+2.49%) and the Shanghai Composite (+1.87%) are also trading sharply higher with property leading the gains. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (+0.09%) is swinging between gains and losses with the Nikkei (-0.43%) bucking the regional trend. US stock futures are fairly flat.
Early morning data showed that South Korea’s seasonally adjusted GDP expanded +0.6% in April-June on a quarterly basis (v/s +0.5% expected) following a +0.3% increase in the preceding three months, despite a decline in exports.
To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure and the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for July. Alongside that, there’s the FHFA house price index for May. Over in Germany, there’s the Ifo business climate indicator for July. From central banks, we’ll get the Euro Area bank lending survey. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, General Motors, General Electric and Spotify
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
EUROPE
US futures positive ahead of key US earnings, EUR lags post-Ifo & Fixed pressured – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, JUL 25, 2023 – 05:47 AM
European bourses & US futures are incrementally positive ahead of numerous key earnings from both sides of the pond
DXY slipped to 101.18 before deriving support from an Ifo/ECB BLS driven hit to the Euro, AUD leads pre-CPI
Core benchmarks are modestly pressured as earlier upside dissipates despite a strong DMO sale, US 5yr due
German Ifo shows a return to growth contraction in Q3 while the ECB survey illustrates the ongoing impact of policy tightening
Crude trims APAC gains on German growth concerns while metals welcome Chinese stimulus, XAU near the 100-DMA
Looking ahead, highlights include US Consumer Confidence, Supply from the US, Earnings from EssilorLuxottica, Kering, LVMH, Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Moody’s & GE.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are managing to eke out marginal gains, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%, with macro drivers downbeat since the APAC upside seen on Chinese stimulus.
Mining names outperform given Politburo stimulus while Unilever +5.0% is supporting the FTSE 100 and AEX post-earnings; on that point, European heavyweight LVMH reports after the Paris close.
Stateside, futures are in the green but only modestly so with specific drivers somewhat light ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC and with numerous large-cap earnings due in- and after-hours today; ES +0.1%.
Click here and here for a recap of the main European equity updates.
FX
DXY slips within 101.430-180 range before another boost from the Euro after weak German Ifo.
EUR/USD tests Fib support at 1.1055 from 1.1086 peak near 1bln option expiry interest.
Aussie rebounds alongside Yuan ahead of CPI data, AUD/USD probes 0.6770 expiries from 0.6726 base, USD/CNY and USD/CNH both sub-7.1400 from 7.1600+ and 7.1900 respective highs.
Yen retains recovery momentum vs Dollar between 141.62-21 bounds amidst demand at the overnight Tokyo fix.
Pound holds onto the 1.2800 handle against Buck amidst supportive EUR/GBP tailwinds within 0.8637-03 range.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1406 vs exp. 7.2044 (prev. 7.1451)
China’s major state-owned banks were seen selling dollars in the offshore and onshore spot FX markets in early Asian trades, according to sources cited by Reuters.
Bond bears back in the driving seat as post-EU PMI momentum wanes and EGBs only bounce partially after dire German Ifo survey.
Bunds back below par within 133.77-14 range, Gilts remain soft between 96.78-38 parameters irrespective of decent demand for 2038 DMO issuance and T-note nearer 111-23+ trough than 112-01+ peak ahead of US data, consumer confidence and 5 year supply.
BTPs also on the back foot following mixed Italian auctions.
WTI and Brent are now mostly softer intraday as the complex came off the best levels seen overnight with added pressure from the German Ifo Survey which, in fitting with yesterday’s PMIs, underscored a worsening economic situation in Germany.
Spot gold continues to oscillate on either side of its 100 DMA (1,962.91/oz) ahead of a triple-threat of central banks including the likes of the FOMC tomorrow, ECB on Thursday, and BoJ on Friday.
Base metals have been underpinned this week by the Chinese Politburo meeting which reignited some optimism in industrials via the hint of further stimulus, albeit the upside is currently capped by the German economic woes telegraphed by the Ifo data.
Agriculture remains a theme as supply risks grow with Chicago Wheat rallying some 10% overnight at one point, whilst corn prices were also supported.
Kremlin says it is impossible to return to lapsed Black Sea Grain deal.
Russian Finance Ministry plans to cut the discount it uses to set taxes on the country’s crude oil exports to USD 20/bbl from USD 25/bbl currently, according to Finance Minister Siluanov cited by Reuters.
Kazakh Energy Minister said there are no issues with shipping Kazakh crude via Russia amid Black Sea tensions.
Kazakhstan’s Tengizchevroil has reduced daily output by 12-13k/T due to unscheduled maintenance, via Deputy Energy Minister.
China’s H1 gold output rose 2.2% Y/Y to 178.6 metric tons and gold consumption rose 16.4% Y/Y to 554.9 metric tons, according to Reuters citing state media.
ECB Euro area bank lending survey: net 14% of EZ banks tightened credit standards in Q2 vs. 27% in Q1. Banks expect more moderate net tightening on loans to firms in Q3. The cumulated net tightening since the beginning of 2022 has been substantial. Firms’ net demand for loans fell strongly in the second quarter of 2023, dropping to an all-time low since the start of the survey in 2003. Click here for more detail.
EU ministers have given the final approval to the EU chips, according to the European Council.
UK pensions regulator warned that pension fund trustees must consider widening the range of their investments including in start-ups and other illiquid assets or face “robust intervention”, according to FT.
5.7 magnitude earthquake occurred in central Turkey, via EMSC.
DATA RECAP
German Ifo Business Climate New (Jul) 87.3 vs. Exp. 88.0 (Prev. 88.5); German GDP is likely to shrink in Q3.
German Ifo Expectations New (Jul) 83.5 vs. Exp. 83.0 (Prev. 83.6); Current Conditions New (Jul) 91.3 vs. Exp. 93.0 (Prev. 93.7)
GEOPOLITICS
White House said the US does not support attacks inside of Russia when asked about the drone strikes in Moscow.
Japan launched a protest against North Korea over its missile launch, while it noted that North Korea’s missile launch is unacceptable and threatens not only Japan but also the regional and international society’s peace and stability.
China’s government said a delegation led by Politburo member Li Hongzhong is to visit North Korea from July 26th. Subsequently, a Russian delegation is to visit North Korea this week, led by the Russian Minister of Defence, via KCNA. Additionally, the Russian Defence Ministry says Defence Minister Shoigu ‘s visit to North Korea will contribute to strengthening military relations between the two countries, via Al Arabiya.
Russian authorities have announced the suspension of navigation within the Gulf of Sevastopol, via Al Arabiya.
China’s Foreign Ministry said a senior official of the Japanese defense ministry has grossly interfered in China’s internal affairs, and China is firmly opposed to this and has lodged stern representations with Japan, via Global Times.
Japan and Italy to hold joint fighter jet drills at Komatsu Base Aug 2-10; Japan and Australia to hold joint fighter jet drills at the Base Aug 23-September 15.
CRYPTO
Binance and CEO Zhao are planning to seek a dismissal of the CFTC complaint, according to Bloomberg.
Crypto exchange Kraken says it is investigating reports that some clients are experiencing funding delays.
UK Information Commission will examine Worldcoin (WDC), a project by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, according to a spokesperson cited by CoinDesk.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mostly higher amid a rally in Chinese stocks after the Politburo’s support pledges, although gains for the rest of the region were capped after soft global PMIs and with some cautiousness heading into risk events.
ASX 200 was positive with the index led by gains in the mining and energy sectors amid recent strength in underlying commodity prices owing to the Chinese stimulus hopes.
Nikkei 225 lagged as speculation remained rife regarding this week’s BoJ meeting with source reports noting the central bank is to consider a large increase in its 2023 inflation outlook and could raise its forecast to around 2.5%.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were boosted with gains led by a surge in property and tech stocks after the Politburo’s support pledges which lifted the Hang Seng Tech Index by around 5%, while the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index rose by a double-digit percentage from early on as the Politburo’s statement omitted the language that homes are not for speculation.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s NDRC held a meeting with private firms including ANTA (2020 HK), NIO (9866 HK) and TCL where it listened to the companies’ opinions and suggestions on the current economic situation, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
South Korean GDP QQ (Q2 A) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.3%); YY (Q2 A) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.9%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 67.36 PTS OR 2.13% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 766.25 PTS OR 4.10% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 18.43 PTS OR 0.06% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.50 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.1466 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.1412 /Oil UP TO 78.73 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 82.65 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
////SOUTH KOREA/CHINA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
China stocks surge after its Politburo meeting where they are targeting more stimulus. The meeting was more dovish than expected
(zerohedge)
China Stocks Surge After Politburo Meeting More Dovish Than Expected
MONDAY, JUL 24, 2023 – 05:20 PM
The Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party held its July meeting today, and according to the statement, policymakers acknowledged the insufficient domestic demand and economic growth difficulties, and in particular highlighted the new developments related to supply and demand of the housing market: “Housing is for living in, not for speculation” was deleted from today’s statement. The authority pledged to strengthen countercyclical policy adjustment, and push forward high-quality development.
Main points:
When assessing the recent economic developments, the authority shifted to a more cautious tone compared with the positive tone in the April Politburo meeting. Policymakers acknowledged challenges in economic development, and in particular the insufficient domestic demand, corporates’ operating difficulties, hidden risks in key areas of the economy, as well as complicated external environment. The statement also highlighted the zigzag path of economic recovery post reopening, but still claimed that economic growth in 1H this year had laid a solid foundation for achieving the full year growth target. Premier Li Qiang recently stated that the economy was on track to reach the growth target this year.
In terms of macro policy stance, policymakers pledged to strengthen countercyclical adjustments. Specifically, the statement emphasized proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, similar to the April statement. Policymakers reiterated the need to keep RMB exchange rate broadly stable at equilibrium levels, which is consistent with PBOC’s recent comments, but new relative to the April Politburo meeting statement. The authority urged local government to accelerate special bond issuance and usage. To further reduce local government debt risks, policymakers flagged that they would roll out a basket of local government debt resolution plan.
In terms of policy focus areas, the July statement highlighted the need to support consumption, and in particular automobile, electronics and home related consumption, as well as sports, entertainment and culture consumption. (Some consumption measures have already been announced.) Policymakers also pledged to stabilize foreign investment and trade, increase the number of international flights and provide sufficient protection for the transportation needs of China-EU railway.
On the property market, “housing is for living in, not for speculation” was deleted from today’s statement, but it was mentioned in the April statement. Instead, policymakers stated they would adjust property policies based on the local property market situation, to better cope with the new developments related to the demand and supply of the property market. Note that this assessment of the property market is new relative to the April meeting statement, but is similar to the comments from PBOC on July 14th. Policymakers would push for shantytown renovation and public facility construction in mega cities.
Today’s meeting continued to emphasize the importance of industrial policies and also vowed to push for healthy development of platform companies. Moreover, policymakers pledged to activate the capital market and boost investors’ confidence. Today’s statement also reiterated the importance of employment, and policymakers would view employment stability as one of their strategic goals.
The July Politburo meeting statement was viewed as slightly more dovish than expected, mainly reflected in the neutral statement of the current economic situation, the deletion of “housing is for living in, not for speculation” and the acknowledgment of new developments in the property market. The mention of “a basket of local government debt resolution plan” is also new. As the July Politburo meeting would set the tone for policy stance in 2H of this year, the new assessment of the economic situation, property market and local government debt would imply further policy easing measures in the next few months. Specific easing measures would still need to be announced by other government institutions such as Ministry of Finance, NDRC and PBOC. Wall Street generally continues to expect a combination of monetary, fiscal, property and consumption support measures to be rolled out in the next few months.
In summary, Goldman’s China strategist Maggie Wei wrties that the Politburo assessment of the economic growth situation and description around the property market as slightly more dovish than expected, though both Goldman – and everyone else – still await specific easing measures after today’s statement.
Still, Chinese stocks traded in the US surged, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index of US-listed Chinese stocks jumped as much as 5.1%, its biggest intraday gain since March after the Politburo signaled more support for the housing sector, even though they fell short of announcing mass-scale stimulus to support a waning economic recovery. Among the mover: Alibaba +4.4%, Baidu +5.8%, PDD Holdings +4.2%, JD.com +4%, NetEase +2.7%, Trip.com +3.9%, Nio +13%, Li Auto +2.9%; KE Holdings, a platform that facilitates housing transactions, gains 8%
Future contracts on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rally, while the offshore yuan pared all losses against the US dollar.
END
Our disappearing foreign minister has been abruptly replaced in a huge shakeup
(zerohedge)
Xi Jinping’s ‘Vanished’ Foreign Minister Abruptly Replaced In Shake-Up
TUESDAY, JUL 25, 2023 – 08:25 AM
In a surprise shake-up coming within weeks of multiple US top officials making significant trips to Beijing, China’s foreign minister Qin Gang has been suddenly replaced by his predecessor Wang Yi on Tuesday.
China’s rubber-stamp parliament voted on the sudden change, state media confirms, deepening a mystery already rampant with speculation, given the 57-year old Qin had not been seen in public for a full month.
“The abrupt announcement of Qin’s removal came after weeks of speculation about his fate,” South China Morning Post writes of the his absence, which it says has “dominated domestic political discussions, and evolved into one of the biggest crises for Chinese President Xi Jinping since his unprecedented third term began last year.”
Qin was last seek on June 25, after meeting with officials from Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Russia in Beijing – with the foreign ministry refusing to comment specifically, only saying that “China’s diplomatic activities are under way as usual.”
The foreign ministry only offered the following as to his absence and unexpected replacement:
Despite rumors circulating on social media and among foreign diplomats, Beijing has remained vague about Qin’s status and whereabouts, attributing his prolonged absence to unspecified “health reasons” since early July.
Wang had already reportedly been standing in as foreign minister for several weeks, given he is director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission. Wang is the foreign affairs arm for the ruling Communist Party, and previously served as FM from 2013-2022.
The FT has dubbed Qin the former “high-flying favorite” of President Xi Jinping, and he had played point man for last month’s important visit by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, which was an attempt to rescue spiraling US-China relations.
FT further points out that “Qin had a meteoric rise from his appointment as Chinese ambassador to the US in 2021 to foreign minister and a member of China’s cabinet, the State Council, in March”—but soon after “disappeared” from public view.
Some analysts are saying this is a major blow to President Xi as he continues his third 5-year term:
Qin’s shock departure has also highlighted a risk for Xi just after he embarked on a precedent-breaking third five-year term as leader. Most of China’s top leadership are close allies of the powerful leader, meaning there is less space for shifting blame in the case of failed policies or personnel decisions.
“You need to see these situations as opportunities for others to put pressure on Xi Jinping,” said Alex Payette, chief executive of Cercius Group, a consultancy that specialises in elite Chinese politics. “So this is a double loss. It is someone that you selected, and you come under pressure — that is bad.”
As for Wang, he’s been seen as the top Chinese official in recent meetings with former US secretaries of state Henry Kissinger and John Kerry in China last week, the latter who was there as Biden’s climate envoy.
One question which remains: is there a greater shake-up underway? At about the same time that Qin’s departure was announced, Beijing named a new China central bank governor Tuesday, Pan Gongsheng, marking a position that undergoes only a once-a-decade change of power.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
EU
EU banks see a record collapse in loan demand. Their economy is collapsing
(zerohedge)
EU Banks See Record Collapse In Loan Demand
TUESDAY, JUL 25, 2023 – 09:50 AM
In its quarterly survey of 158 big banks, the European Central Bank (ECB) said that demand for loans from businesses over the last three months fell at the fastest pace on record (the time series began in 2003) and banks tightened their credit standard to consumers over the last three months.
Via The ECB:
The decline was again substantially stronger than expected by banks in the previous quarter. The net decrease in loan demand was the strongest since the start of the survey in 2003 for SMEs (net percentage of -40%, see Chart 7), while the net decrease in demand for loans to large firms (net percentage of -34%) remained slightly more limited than during the global financial crisis. In addition, the net decrease in demand was the strongest over the history of the survey for long-term loans (-46%), while demand for short-term loans decreased to a lesser extent (-22%) but still close to the historical low of the global financial crisis.
Rising interest rates and declining fixed investment remained the main drivers of the net decrease in loan demand (see Chart 6). Lower financing needs for M&A activity (included in “other financing needs”), available internal funding with improved corporate profits, and, to a smaller extent, debt securities issuance (included in “use of alternative finance”) contributed to firms’ reduced loan demand. There was also a small dampening impact on loan demand from inventories and working capital.
For both SMEs and large firms, the general level of interest rates and firms’ financing needs for fixed investment were the main drivers of reduced loan demand (see Chart 7).
While the percentage of banks reporting tighter credit standards was smaller than in the previous quarter, it remained above the survey’s historical average and came on top of already substantial tightening, the central bank said.
Demand for mortgages also dropped sharply, though not as much as the “very large” decrease in the previous two quarters, but a further moderate drop is likely during the third quarter, the ECB added.
Banks said that their stock of non-performing loans (NPL) also pushed them to tighten credit standards.
While NPL ratios have not changed substantially, banks’ perception of refinancing and repayment risk increased, the ECB added.
Banks expect to continue tightening credit standards this quarter.
With both credit standards tightening and demand for loans weakening, investment activity is set to weaken further – theoretically helping The ECB’s efforts to tamp down sticky inflation (but certainly not helping any hopes of any economic renaissance in the region).
And Germany’s IFO data did nothing to help, confirming yesterday’s ugly PMIs. The expectations component gives a reliable lead on German growth, and points to re-weakening of the economy after the technical recession in 4Q22 and 1Q23.
While this news is unlikely to impact this week’s decision to hike rates, we are already seeing the odds of a September ECB hike falling dramatically this week (following PMIs, IFO and now the lending survey)…
Finally, we ask, will we see the same loan-demand-crash in The Fed’s SLOOS data (due imminently) which, we note with anxious anticipation, The Fed will have seen before tomorrow’s FOMC statement. A look at the ‘actual’ reported loan volumes reported by banks shows the last few weeks have seen ‘normal’ variations (some might argue smaller levels than pre-SVB), but certainly no collapse…
The FDIC hit out at some US banks for incorrectly reporting the amount of their uninsured deposits, after dozens of lenders restated their figures downward earlier this year. The regulator said banks were wrong to exclude deposits that were collateralized by pledged assets. The level of uninsured deposits at banks came into focus after the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank.
When there’s no consequences, what does it really matter? As long as the end-result provides ammo for the Biden administration’s claims that ‘everything is awesome’ – ‘most jobs created ever’ – and so on – then who is going to argue?
But, what if? What if SLOOS shows a massive credit tightening (from the demand side) like in Europe? Will that be the final straaw to get us back to all-time highs in stocks because The Fed may have to lift its boot from the neck of the real economy.
END
AUSTRIA/UKRAINE
Austrian Conservative opposes the EU’s scandalous planned expansion of Ukraine funding
(zerohedge)
Austrian Conservatives Opposes EU’s “Scandalous” Planned Expansion Of Ukraine Funding
The European Union’s desire to increase budget contributions from member states to continue funding Ukraine’s drawn-out conflict with Russia is scandalous, the conservative Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) has claimed.
Prominent FPÖ politicians sharply criticized the Austrian government for supporting the pro-war efforts in Brussels. Petra Steger, the party’s spokesperson on European affairs, insisted the European Union should not be fueling the conflict by providing an endless supply of military and financial support to Ukraine, and should instead be promoting peace talks in the region.
Austrian People’s Party (FPÖ) politician Petra Steger. (Wikimedia Commons)
Steger slammed the plans proposed by the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell for the European Union to provide, in addition to existing measures, up to €5 billion per year for Ukraine’s defense needs and to guarantee a substantial contribution to the military training program of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
She said the plan represents a “bottomless pit,” and her party therefore reiterated its calls for the Austrian federal government to suspend its additional contributions to the European Union budget.
“The scandalous increase in the EU budget hasn’t even been implemented yet, and here they come with their next crazy demand. In the meantime, more than enough billions have been transferred to Ukraine, which has brought nothing but bloodshed and a boom for the U.S. arms industry,” Steger said.
“All this at a time when the European Union is constantly giving billions in gifts to third countries, openly supporting a warring party while the EU itself is degenerating into a debt union. Moreover, the European Central Bank is constantly overstepping its mandate. The hard-earned money of the Austrians is no longer in good hands in the institutions of the European Union,” she added.
Instead, Brussels should be hell-bent on promoting a ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow to help bring peace back to the region.
“Until then, the EU’s behavior can only be described as a brazen Brussels rip-off that has turned into the ultimate disaster for the European financial budget,” she claimed.
More than €60 billion has flowed into Ukraine since the beginning of the war, and the European Union wants to approve even more funding through the European Peace Facility. This, however, comes at an additional cost for member states, and net contributors to the EU budget, like Austria, aren’t impressed.
“Our hard-earned prosperity over decades is incessantly sent to Ukraine by the EU,” Steger said, adding that the federal government supported Brussels in its plans and gave the European Commission its nod.
Her party colleague Axel Kassegger also criticized the European Union and the Austrian government for not being firmly opposed to the deployment of cluster bombs in Ukraine by the United States.
end
GREECE/ISLAND OF RHODES/CLIMATE CHANGE?
Evacuation off the island of Rhodes: seems the wildfires done on purpose! Climate change?
(zerohedge)
Arson Or Climate Change? 19,000 Evacuated From Greek Island As Wildfires Rage
TUESDAY, JUL 25, 2023 – 04:15 AM
Wildfires have been raging across Rhodes, a popular Greek tourist island in the Mediterranean, for nearly a week, causing the evacuation of 19,000 people from their homes and resorts over the weekend. Another wildfire is spreading across the island of Corfu, forcing officials to declare emergencies. This all comes as Europe bakes in scorching temperatures as the Northern Hemisphere summer season nears a peak.
“For the next few weeks, we must be on constant alert. We are at war, we will rebuild what we lost, we will compensate those who were hurt,” Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis told lawmakers in parliament on Monday.
Mitsotakis said, “The climate crisis is already here. It will manifest itself everywhere in the Mediterranean with greater disasters.”
Perhaps someone should remind Mitsotakis that the “climate crisis” is possibly the combination of an El Nino year and peaking Northern Hemisphere summer that tends to bring above-average temperatures.
Ioannis Artopios, a Greek fire service spokesman, stated that about 19,000 locals and tourists, many of whom are Britons — were evacuated from the islands over the weekend.
British Foreign Office Minister Andrew Mitchell said around 10,000 Britons had been evacuated from the island of Rhodes.
“The fires look terrifying in the darkness,” Paul Kalburgi, a British playwright and screenwriter, told NYTimes, who was on vacation on Rhodes during the inferno.
Government spokesman Pavlos Marinakis described the evacuation effort as the largest in the country’s history caused by a wildfire.
Fires in Greece are the worst in two decades.
Greece is one of many countries with high fire risk.
Some have said the fires were possibly started by “arsonists.”
And if we look at Bloomberg weather data, average temperatures in Athens are somewhat in line with a 30-year trend this year despite the surge in July.
The corporate press has conveniently blamed the hot weather on ‘climate change’ while lecturing plebs on how they need to reduce their carbon emissions but omit reporting on billionaires flying around on private jets and sailing on mega yachts. Maybe climate change warriors who continue to sound the alarm about the world’s imminent demise should realize it’s just summer in the Northern Hemisphere, and El Nino shifts jets streams that warm the planet.
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
They need an alternative grain export venue. However Russia escalates with strikes on a Danube port/Reni
(zerohedge)
Warring Sides Vie For ‘Alternative’ Grain Export Plans As Russia Escalates With Strikes On Danube Port
MONDAY, JUL 24, 2023 – 07:20 PM
UN secretary-general António Guterres on Monday pleaded for Russia to immediately return to the Black Sea grain deal in order to stave off a food crisis amid rising prices.
“With the termination of the Black Sea Initiative, the most vulnerable will pay the highest price,” the UN chief said. “When food prices rise, everybody pays for it. This is especially devastating for vulnerable countries struggling to feed their people.”
Guterres didn’t address these arguments of Putin, instead he pressed for the Russian Federation to “return to the implementation of the Black Sea Initiative, in line with my latest proposal.”
“I urge the global community to stand united for effective solutions in this essential effort,” Guterres said. “I remain committed to facilitating the unimpeded access to global markets for food products and fertilizers from both Ukraine and the Russian Federation, and to deliver the food security that every person deserves.”
The UN chief’s plan being referenced is described as follows:
He proposed Russia extend it – with a daily limit of four ships traveling to Ukraine and four ships leaving – in return for connecting a subsidiary of Russia’s Agricultural Bank, Rosselkhozbank, to the SWIFT global payments system, which the EU cut off in June 2022.
Putin has also alleged that Ukraine has been hiding military cargo under the guise of exporting foodstuffs.
Because of this suspicion, Moscow days ago warned that foreign vessels seeking to enter Ukraine ports risk being treated as military targets. Ukraine then sought permission from Romania to use its territorial waters as an alternate route. Russia’s military quickly responded on Monday.
“Russia for the first time on Monday attacked a port on the Danube River in Ukraine, close to the Romanian border, Ukrainian and Romanian officials said, destroying a grain hangar in an escalation of its efforts to cripple Kyiv’s agriculture and risking a more direct confrontation with the United States and its European allies,” The New York Times detailed of the fresh attack.
“The assault on the port in the town of Reni, across the river from Romania, a NATO member, targeted Kyiv’s alternative export routes for grain to reach world markets, days after Russia terminated a deal that had enabled Ukraine to ship its grain across the Black Sea,” the report noted.
And crucially, “The attack is one of the closest Moscow has come to hitting the military alliance’s territory since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year.”
Location of the Russian strikes, just on the Ukraine-Romania border…
Meanwhile, both sides are floating contrasting ‘alternatives’ and replacements to the original Black Sea Grain Initiative, but without the participation of the other. At this point, none of these ideas have been formalized. FT reported days ago:
Russia is pushing a plan to supply grain to Africa and cut Ukraine out of the global market after Moscow’s withdrawal this week from a UN-backed deal, according to three people familiar with the matter. President Vladimir Putin has proposed a replacement initiative whereby Qatar would pay Moscow to ship Russian grain to Turkey, which would then distribute the crop to “countries in need”, the people said.
As for Kiev, it is hoping to establish a land corridor for the export of Ukrainian food products to the EU, according to a fresh statement by Zelensky.
But there are two obvious issues based on the greater logistical complexity (and in a warzone): 1) No comparable infrastructure exists to ship the same large-scale amounts by road, and 2) the price of the same shipments will massively increase. At the same time Russia is likely to escalate its attacks based on its rationale of ‘suspected arms cargo’ being hidden in the shipments. In this way immense pressure is being further brought to bear on Ukraine, also at a moment of the faltering counteroffensive. Is this the start of the end-game for Ukraine’s defense? Will catastrophe on top of catastrophe for Ukraine finally lead to some kind of negotiations in the near future?
Wake up, Israel! Civil war is on its way! What do you do when the politician who demonizes you is your neighbor? Some of us made a video. Someone else pulled a gun
William Makis (TWC with me) discusses Jamie Foxx’s vaccine status and the risks involved as well as exploding stroke data potentially due to blood clots post shot (due to the spike protein)
Watch now (3 min) | PREVIOUS ARTICLE: June 1, 2023 – NEWS: Actor Jamie Foxx had a stroke leaving him partially paralyzed & blind after being forced to take a COVID-19 vaccine for a movie role with Cameron Diaz…
for US than many Republicans even; he is principled, great position on the fraud COVID vaccine; if Trump chose him as VP, I would vote for that….Trump is my guy, no issues.Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr.
‘Robert F. Kennedy has been polling well against brain-dead Biden. Biden neocon controllers don’t like this, so they have resorted to a time-tested smear campaign against him. He has a long record of being pro-Jewish and supporting Israel, but this hasn’t stopped his enemies from calling him “anti-Semitic”. The charge is ridiculous. What his enemies fear is that he will bring to public attention issues our masters in Washington don’t want us to think about.
What gave rise to the smear? According to the New York Post, which broke the “story,” Kennedy said in a press conference at an Italian restaurant in New York, “’COVID-19. There is an argument that it is ethnically targeted. COVID-19 attacks certain races disproportionately’ Kennedy said. ‘COVID-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese.’
end
SLAY NEWS
The latest reports from Slay News
Top WEF Official: ‘Global Cabal Theory’ Is ‘Nonsense’One of the highest-ranking officials in the World Economic Forum (WEF) has insisted that the notion of a “global cabal” of all-powerful globalist elites is just a “conspiracy theory” which he slammed as “nonsense.”READ MORE
Watch: RFK Jr. Takes Leftists to School Over ‘Miracle Drug’ That He Says Helped Stop COVIDREAD MORE…
LATEST NEWS:
Joe Biden Is the Second Most UNPOPULAR President in Modern History – But He TOTALLY Got 81 Million Votes!Read more…SHOCKING: “Can’t Wait to Get That ‘Thing’ Out of My Body,” Teen Faces 90 Days Prison Time for Burning Baby’s Remains After Illegal 29-Week Home AbortionRead more…Comedian Jim Breuer Defends Jason Aldean, Torches Leftist Hypocrisy in Trying to Cancel SongRead more…Republican Governor Contacted By Jack Smith In Trump InvestigationRead more…Representative Eric Swalwell Threatens: ‘Republicans Are a Party of Violence, Chaos and Grievances, We Must Not Let Them Get Away With This’Read more…WATCH: American Golfer Stops Climate Protester From Rushing British Open CourseRead more…U.S. Military Makes Admission About COVID-19 JabRead more…‘I’m a Jason Aldean Fan’: Legendary Singer Backs Up Country Star, Says Controversial Song Is Not Racistttorney Exposes Biden Bribery Doc’s Cover-UpRead more…US Not Currently Discussing Nuclear Agreement With Iran: BlinkenRead more…Supreme Court Asked to Decide on Law Blocking Abortion Clinic ProtestsRead more…Rep. Jordan Says House Could Move to Impeach Merrick Garland at a ‘Pretty Quick Pace’Read more…Megyn Kelly Sounds OFF on Jen Psaki: ‘You’re Just Too Stupid to Realize You Are Being Manipulated’Read more…House Democrat Argues The Government Should Define ‘Truth,’ Americans Need to Be CensoredRead more…The Supreme Court is Poised to Decide on Huge Religious Liberty BattlesRead more…Read more…
Hunter Biden’s Former Business Partner Set to Confirm Joe Biden’s Involvement in Corrupt DealsHunter Biden’s former best friend and business partner, Devon Archer, is expected to testify before Congress this week, revealing that Hunter would include his father, then-Vice President Joe Biden, in meetings with his overseas business partners using speakerphone. Archer is scheduled to share instances where Joe Biden was either physically present or connected via speakerphone while Hunter introduced him to …READ THE FULL REPORT
‘The FBI is the Place Where Evidence Goes to Die’: Liberal Attorney Exposes Biden Bribery Doc’s Cover-UpConstitutional attorney Jonathan Turley, a George Washington law professor known for his liberal views, expressed his shock that the FBI hid an FD-1023 informant document corroborating investigators’ findings that Joe and Hunter Biden appear to have benefited from an international bribery scheme. Turley appeared on Fox News Sunday with Shannon Bream and brilliantly laid out why the FBI’s reluctance to …READ THE FULL REPORT
Special Counsel Jack Smith Ramps Up 2020 Investigation with Swing State Governor InterviewsGeorgia Governor Brian Kemp was approached by Special Counsel Jack Smith’s office regarding the ongoing investigation into former President Donald Trump and his allies’ attempts to overturn the 2020 election results. The Washington Post was the first to verify that Smith’s office contacted Kemp after Trump announced on TRUTH Social that he had received a letter from Smith, indicating that …READ THE FULL REPORT
VACCINE IMPACT/
Maybe this will wakeup the world:
LeBron James’ 18-Year-Old Son Suffers Heart Attack During Practice
TUESDAY, JUL 25, 2023 – 12:25 PM
Another day, another 18-year-old athlete in peak physical condition suddenly collapsing.
On Monday, Bronny James, the eldest son of LA Lakers star LeBron James, suffered a heart attack during practice at USC.
James was rushed to the ICU, and is now in stable condition, ESPN reports.
“Yesterday while practicing Bronny James suffered a cardiac arrest,” said a James family spokesperson in a statement. “Medical staff was able to treat Bronny and take him to the hospital. He is now in stable condition and no longer in ICU. We ask for respect and privacy for the James family and we will update media when there is more information.
“LeBron and Savannah wish to publicly send their deepest thanks and appreciation to the USC medical and athletic staff for their incredible work and dedication to the safety of their athletes.”
James, 18, is entering his freshman year at USC and is ranked 20th in the 2023 ESPN 100 rankings. He is the sixth-rated point guard in the class of 2023.
It is the second straight year the Trojans program has had a player suffer cardiac arrest.
Center Vincent Iwuchukwu, one of the top incoming freshman in college basketball last season, suffered cardiac arrest on July 1 and was hospitalized for a few days. He returned to play for USC in January, appearing in 14 games. -ESPN
Damar Hamlin, the Buffalo Bills safety who resumed his career following a mid-game heart attack during a “Monday Night Football” game last season, tweeted support for James.
Of course, it couldn’t have possibly been the vaccine – as you see, LeBron James researched it and gave it a clean bill of health.
“After doing my research and things of that nature, I felt like it was best suited not only for me, but for my family and for my friends, and that’s why I decided to do it,” said James in Sept. 2021, adding that he was initially skeptical about the vaccine before deciding to get it.
end
end
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1048 DOWN 0.0015
USA/ YEN 141.43 DOWN 0.091 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2829 UP 0.0018
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3179 UP .0004 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 4 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 67.36 PTS OR 2.13%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 766,25 PTS OR 4.10%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .50 % // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG UP 766.25 PTS OR 4.10%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 67.36 PTS OR 2.13%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.50%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 396.69 PTS OR 1.23%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1958,20
silver:$24.59
USA dollar index early MTUESDAY morning: 101.19 UP 11 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.1363
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1325)
TURKISH LIRA: 26.92 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.463…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5 in basis points from MONDAY at 3.895% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.930 UP 1 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 13.21 points or 0.17%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 20.64 PTS OR 0.13%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 11.86 PTS OR 0.16%
Spain IBEX DOWN 24.30 PTS OR 0.22%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 57.99 PTS OR 0.20%
WTI Oil price 79.75 12: EST
Brent Oil: 83.54 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 90.13 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 32//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3905 UP 1 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.3050 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.1062 DOWN 0.060 OR 60 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2816 DOWN .0032 or 32 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.3000 % DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 141.48 DOWN 0.181 //YEN UP 18 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3172 DOWN .0042 CDN dollar, UP 42 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 78.96
Brent OIL: 82.85
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS pts to 3.872%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS PTS to 3.923%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 6 PTS AT 4.902%
USA dollar index: 101.13 UP 33 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.95 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 90.51 UP 0 AND 42/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 26.83 PTS OR 0.08%
NASDAQ 100 UP 113.39 PTS OR 0.73%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.86 UP 0.05 PTS (0.34)%
GLD: $182.41 UP 1.01 OR 0.56%
SLV/ $22.62 UP .29 OR 1.30%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:
Big-Tech Bounces, Banks Bust, Bonds Breakdown As Rate-Hike Odds Rise Ahead Of Fed
TUESDAY, JUL 25, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Consumer Confidence jumped to post-COVID highs, the labor market appears to getting ‘easier’ once again (Jobs data in conf board survey), home prices are rising at a rapid clip once again, and regional Fed surveys all ticked up…
Source: Bloomberg
Does that sound like the economy The Fed wants to see after 500bs of hiking? Financial Conditions are at the same level of ‘easiness’ as they were when The Fed did its first 50bps hike in May of 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
The last two weeks have seen a notably hawkish bias to short-term rate markets with a 25bps hike locked and loaded for tomorrow but now a 50% chance of another rate-hike by year-end.
Source: Bloomberg
But Nasdaq doesn’t care about such formalities as more hawkish expectations, soaring 1% on the day. Late-day weakness dragged Small Caps into the red and The Dow clung to green…
The last time The Dow had a longer winning streak than this (12 straight days) was in Jan 1987 (13 days – the all-time record win streak)…
Banks were dumped today, erasing yesterday’s exuberance…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were sold today relatively evenly (up 3-4bps) with the belly slightly underperforming. Interestingly, the 30Y is trading back (on its way up to 4.00%) at the same level as it was at the last FOMC meeting…
Source: Bloomberg
But the short-end is notably above the last FOMC meeting levels…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar continues to tread water in a very narrow range (eerily narrow for the last three days)…
Source: Bloomberg
We do note that EURCHF tumbled today as the Swiss Franc saw demand ahead of The Fed and ECB. Swissy is the strongest vs the euro since Sept 2022 (with the biggest strengthening of CHF vs EUR since January today)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin inched higher (finding support at $29k) after yesterday’s tumble but nowhere near $30k…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold ended the day marginally higher but had a very choppy day
Oil prices extended their gains, with WTI testing up near $80 – back at the same level as it was after the OPEC-Cut news in April…
Finally, we note that there remains only one thing that matters to stocks right now…
Source: Bloomberg
So what will cause The Fed’s reverse repo facility to stop being drained? While you ponder that consider this…
Source: Bloomberg
What do all those insiders know about this meltup that retail investors don’t?
We give the last word to Thomas Peterffy, the billionaire founder and chairman of electronic brokerage giant Interactive Brokers, who told MarketWatch this afternoon that a US soft landing is “wishful thinking” adding that “the market should be much lower.”
b) THIS MORNING TRADING//
END
II) USA DATA/
US Home Prices Jumped By Most In A Year In May, Case-Shiller Data Shows
TUESDAY, JUL 25, 2023 – 09:06 AM
Home prices in America’s 20 largest cities rose on MoM basis for the third straight month in May, according to the latest data from S&P Core Logic’s Case-Shiller index. In fact, for the 3rd straight month, home prices rose more than expected (up 0.99% MoM vs 0.7% exp in May) – that is the biggest MoM rise since May 2022.
Source: Bloomberg
On a YoY basis, home prices remain lower (marginally at -1.70%) in America’s 20 largest cities.
“Home prices in the U.S. began to fall after June 2022, and May’s data bolster the case that the final month of the decline was January 2023,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in statement.
“Granted, the last four months’ price gains could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic weakness. But the breadth and strength of May’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future months.“
Chicago, Cleveland, New York reported highest year-over-year gains among 20 cities surveyed. The West Coast continues to dominate among the cities with the largest YoY price drops…
And judging by the resumption of the rise of mortgage rates since the Case-Shiller data was created, we would expect prices to also resume their decline…
Source: Bloomberg
But, when selling volumes and inventory are so low, anything can happen. Certainly not the tamping-down of home unaffordability that The Fed would have been hoping for.
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Fed Ex pilots reject the new labour deal
(Freightwaves)
FedEx Pilots Reject New Labor Deal That Would Raise Pay By 30%
Pilots at FedEx Express have rejected a tentative agreement to amend their contract, which would have increased pay by up to 30% over the five-year term, the Air Line Pilots Association announced Monday.
The labor deal was voted down by a margin of 57% to 43%. FedEx employs nearly 6,000 pilots. FedEx and union negotiators will now have to work on developing a new labor deal.
“Our members have spoken and we will now regroup and prepare for the next steps. In the coming weeks, the FedEx ALPA leadership will meet to establish a timeline for assessing pilot group priorities moving forward. FedEx pilots remain unified and that will drive a new path that will help produce an agreement that all FedEx pilots will be proud to support,” said Capt. Chris Norman, the FedEx ALPA chair.
“The tentative agreement voting results have no impact on our service as we continue delivering for our customers around the world,” FedEx said in a statement. “The parties will return to negotiations under the supervision of the National Mediation Board. While we are disappointed in these voting results, FedEx will continue to bargain in good faith with our pilots to achieve an agreement that is fair for all FedEx stakeholders.”
The vote adds to uncertainty for FedEx at a time of heightened labor activism following the COVID pandemic. Pilots had authorized union leadership to initiate a strike vote before union negotiators reached agreement May 30 on a new deal. The rejection comes as rival UPS braces for a possible strike by 340,000 Teamsters workers that could begin Aug. 1 if the sides don’t reach a resolution this week. UPS pilots have said they will walk off the job in solidarity with UPS truck drivers, parcel carriers and warehouse workers.
Pilots who voted against the FedEx deal have complained about weaker job protections, back pay, alternative pension options and that pay increases were below those achieved by pilots at Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines.
FedEx Express has cut $700 million in annual costs from its air network in the past year, part of a larger corporate transformation strategy designed to reduce inefficiency and save $4 billion per year by consolidating its separate express, ground and services businesses under one roof. The decision was triggered by sharply lower shipping demand and investor agitation about lower profit margins. FedEx is also accelerating the retirement of older aircraft and temporarily parking others because of the slowdown in air volumes.
Management has said it plans to make the air network leaner, including by substituting truck service on certain connecting routes to enable consolidation and increase aircraft load factors, and relying more on outsourced air transport, especially for deferred parcels, routes with fluctuating demand and heavyweight freight. The company is also closing some pilot bases and its maintenance facility in Los Angeles.
The tentative labor agreement would have allowed FedEx Express to place more work during surge periods with third-party airlines without paying a higher penalty, but many pilots were concerned that language prohibiting outsourcing if FedEx reduces flight hours or furlough pilots wasn’t strong enough. Under the existing arrangement, FedEx pays a financial penalty to the union that gets distributed to pilots if the company goes above the agreed cap on shipment volume that can be given to charter airlines. Opponents feared FedEx might simply not replace older pilots as they retire and then claim a need to hire partner carriers to meet demand.
Adding to concern was last week’s hiring of former Atlas Air CEO John Dietrich to be FedEx’s chief financial officer, who many accused in online chat rooms of undermining Atlas pilots by acquiring another cargo airline with weaker pilot benefits and shifting more work there until the pilot groups were merged years later. A majority of Atlas Air pilots were unhappy with their amended 2021 contract because terms they didn’t like were forced on them through arbitration.
Many members also thought recovery pay, retroactively owed for the 18 months since the contract was eligible to be changed, was too low and disagreed with the union on how inflation was calculated.
In addition to a 30% pay increase, the pilot contract included a 30% increase to the legacy pension and a company-funded replacement for the legacy pension. ALPA pushed hard for ratification, arguing the deal represented the largest investment in a pilot contract, on a per-capita basis, and that it substantially raised the bar on pilot retirement.
The vote was a rebuke to ALPA’s leadership and the Master Executive Council, made up of officers from the pilot group. Some pilots celebrating the outcome on pilot forums called on union representatives to resign. A common theme among opponents is that the Master Executive Council tried very hard to sell a deal using fear of potential job losses without passage instead of allowing the agreement to sell itself.
“We will NOT vote in concessions. Not after Covid, not after the $Billions executives have squeezed out through stock buybacks, not after our daytime flying passenger brethren at much less profitable carriers are ratifying true industry leading contracts that do not require special math,” said one pilot who goes by the handle CloudSailor.
Other pilot groups have successfully completed new labor agreements.
Pilots at Delta Air Lines agreed in March to a deal that raises pay 34% over four years. A week ago, pilots at United Airlines agreed to a preliminary package that includes pay hikes up to 40.2% over four years. American Airlines last week boosted its offer for a new pilot contract by more than $1 billion to match the United deal on wage scales and other benefits. The original American deal gave pilots a 40% raise over the four-year term.
Teamsters at less-than-truckload carrier Yellow Corp. will not be on strike Monday as previously planned. Central States Funds agreed Sunday to extend health care benefits for employees at YRC Freight and Holland.
Yellow now has 30 days to pay $50 million to catch up on its benefits payments. A statement from the Teamsters said it expects the company to make the payments within the next two weeks.
“The intense discussions between Teamsters leadership and Central States successfully convinced fund trustees to reverse their previous decision that health care benefits would end on July 23 if Yellow remained delinquent,” the statement read.
It appears Yellow and the Teamsters are headed back to the table.
The union’s negotiating committee will meet with Yellow representatives Sunday night in Washington, D.C. “to review the state of the company and the current contract.”
“As the Teamsters and Yellow sit down, the reversal by Central States will keep health care benefits paid and hardworking Teamsters on the job for the time being,” the release said.
The breaking point came last weekend when Yellow missed contractually required benefits payments to Central States Funds. The debt-heavy, cash-strapped company previously asked to defer the payments with interest, to no avail even though Central States had granted such requests in the past.
The company lost a hearing in a federal court on Friday, which would have barred the Teamsters from a work stoppage. Up until the last-minute extension on Sunday, Teamsters at YRC Freight and Holland were preparing to strike over the missed payments, which would have left them without health insurance.
No mention was made about missed contributions to the pension fund. Yellow’s participation in that fund was expected to be terminated on Sunday.
“Your Honor, the situation here for Yellow and the stakeholders is binary,” said Yellow’s attorney Marc Kasowitz in court on Friday. “If there’s a strike, the company is gone. If a strike is at least temporarily enjoined … then there’s some possibility for the company to survive.”
It’s still unclear where the company stands with contributions to its second- and third-largest funds. A July 13 letter from Yellow CEO Darren Hawkins to Teamsters General President Sean O’Brien said the company wouldn’t be able to make those upcoming payments either.
“Our members at YRC Freight and Holland cannot work without health care, and the Teamsters worked tirelessly to ensure an immediate strike at Yellow could be averted,” O’Brien said in the Sunday statement. “These discussions were not easy, but Central States has made meaningful movement under pressure from the union. We are seeking a real resolution, but let this solution today serve as a profound reminder that our members can only endure so many sacrifices.
end
This wage settlement will be highly inflationary on all goods shipped
UPS and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, representing approximately 330,000 UPS workers, have reached a tentative collective bargaining agreement, thereby preventing a nationwide strike that could’ve disrupted supply chains from coast to coast.
“Together we reached a win-win-win agreement on the issues that are important to Teamsters leadership, our employees and to UPS and our customers,” Carol Tomé, UPS chief executive officer, wrote in a statement.
Tomé continued, “This agreement continues to reward UPS’s full- and part-time employees with industry-leading pay and benefits while retaining the flexibility we need to stay competitive, serve our customers and keep our business strong.”
UPS explained the five-year contract covers all Teamsters-represented employees in small-package roles and is subject to voting and ratification by union members.
“The overwhelmingly lucrative contract raises wages for all workers, creates more full-time jobs, and includes dozens of workplace protections and improvements,” the union said.
Teamsters General Pres. Sean M. O’Brien commented on the win:
“The union went into this fight committed to winning for our members. We demanded the best contract in the history of UPS, & we got it.
“UPS has put $30 billion in new money on the table as a direct result of these negotiations.”
Shares of UPS trading in New York pumped, then dumped on the announcement.
As Bruce Wilds concludes, the main takeaway from this story is that inflation is tied directly to wages and labor costs. All businesses large and small will be affected, as usual, small businesses will get hit hardest. This translates into consumers having to pay more and workers demanding higher pay. We know that government workers will never lower their pay and unlike the private sector, it is not held back by an employer’s ability to pay. Add government works to those screaming for more money. In short, get ready for higher everything.
Certainly, UPS customers are likely to face higher shipping rates, according to analysts.
“A new Teamsters deal could drive the cost per piece [about] 2 percent higher than current expectations,” Bascome Majors, an analyst at Susquehanna International Group, told clients in a note earlier in July, according to Reuters.
A potential supply chain catastrophe has been narrowly avoided with mere days to spare. However, expect to pay more to ship items in the not-to-distant future.
Robert H comments on the failed Fed Ex negotiation to prevent a strike:
Robert H:
FedEx Pilots Reject New Labor Deal That Would Raise Pay By 30% | ZeroHedge
This actually is quite sad. It is a reflection of decay of a society past, past its’ due date. It is not that pilots do not deserve wages but about value against a global system of activity where value of labor is measured. As is the quality of aircraft and all manner of other goods. The West is losing not just its’ edge but perhaps its’ ability to compete with a new emerging Global South wanting its slice of the apple and freedom from domination. There is a total misunderstanding of what is the value of labor. The value of labor goes back to the oldest profession. It has not changed with the money changers or charlatans of yesterday and today.
One only has to look at who wins in math contests to realize the education system is lost as most kids are Foreign named students winning because it is drummed into them to have a better life than that that existed with the average Western person. When you come with nothing to start a new life, you impose desire and fire in the belly of your children for a life better than the one lived in sacrifice for their future as yours was yours to give as a parent out of love. It has been this way for generations through time. It is also taught in the lesson of why only 1 out of a 100 salmon make upstream to spawn. Humanity and empires are no different through time.
Decades ago i saw this with factories around the globe that I visited. It is why when manufacturing i used a continental work logic to run factories 24/7 with no overtime. I was fair in wages and benefits but not to excess in overtime which is wasted labor value. I have never understood why factories or office towers are empty more than they are used.
The luxury of such times and largesse is history to be remembered as the “good old days” Which will not return as we have cast upon new uncharted waters. It is not future for anyone clinging to the past because the past is gone and even the present is slipping from memory. One cannot escape from a past that no longer exists in the present and declines in the future.
We in the West will adapt or die based on the realities of global competition. And we are all hampered by illicit greed of past allowances reaching into the present as their claws are blunted by change. And as past errors and greed manifest in things like the F-35 which is a flying piece of garbage. However, a testimony of what is wrong with a defense industry that ripped off more than it provided. Add to that the grimy hands paid off and you see realities on the lands of Ukraine where Ukrainians die to show inadequacy; which is ignored by a Ship of Fools too blind to see, and perhaps too incompetent to change. Thus confronting historical indifference of decay.
Soon scarce funds released will be put to purpose. However, it cannot and will not be to cushion the idiocy of fools too far gone to count. They will have to find their own way. It is a journey of life that they will endure to find renewal of existence.
Even saving what is savable of culture and heritage birth by centuries is not universal. Mistakes all carry payments required as the past writes the future. It is why the arrow once drawn and released travels both through darkness and light to find a target. Sometimes the target is missed.
Sadly, there are very few willing participants in the fight going forward. As being unwilling, it not a fault but a reality of one’s reach for what is seen and that which is not seen. And in so being one’s cast is set by what is cast.
House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) indicated on July 23 that Republicans could soon move to impeach U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland following testimony from two IRS whistleblowers.
In an appearance on Fox’s “Sunday Morning Futures,” Mr. Jordan was asked by host Maria Bartiromo about recent public disclosures made by IRS agents Gary Shapley and Joe Ziegler and whether Republicans will move toward impeaching Mr. Garland.
“It sure looks like now, based on the evidence that keeps piling up, based on what Sen. [Chuck] Grassley released this week, the 1023 form, what we heard from the whistleblowers this past week, and the conflicting statements from the Justice Department, it sure looks like we’re moving in that direction at a pretty quick pace,” Mr. Jordan said on July 23.
“I will tell you this, the speaker has been very clear. Speaker [Kevin] McCarthy has said if we have to go to an impeachment inquiry, we will, in fact, do that.”
In February, Mr. Jordan wrote to Mr. Garland about a possible special counsel investigation of Hunter Biden. The committee chairman said that Mr. Garland didn’t respond to him and has been “pretty quiet.”
“I write him again, the attorney general; again, he doesn’t respond, but guess who does.” Mr. Jordan said. “David Weiss, the U.S. attorney in Delaware, who’s supposedly handling the case. That, in and of itself, is unusual.”
Later in the interview, Mr. Jordan made reference to the investigation into Mr. Biden and said it “could be more about the president himself” and suggested that President Joe Biden could also face impeachment. An impeachment would have to come after House Oversight Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) is finished with his investigation, he said.
Hunter Biden, son of President Joe Biden, looks on during a state dinner at the White House on June 22, 2023. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Watch the full interview below:
Mr. Garland is scheduled to appear at a House Judiciary Committee hearing in September. Mr. Jordan said that any impeachment effort against Mr. Garland would have to be decided by the entire Republican conference.
Mr. Shapley and Mr. Ziegler appeared before a House committee last week and told lawmakers that federal agencies interfered in an IRS investigation into felony tax fraud related to foreign income connected to Hunter Biden. They said that Mr. Weiss’s authority was being limited by higher-ups in the Department of Justice, which Mr. Garland has previously denied.
“It appeared to me based on what I experienced that the U.S. Attorney in Delaware in our investigation was constantly hamstrung, limited, and marginalized by DOJ officials as well as other U.S. attorneys,” Mr. Ziegler told the panel.
And Mr. Shapley insisted that his allegations about limits on the authority placed on Mr. Weiss were “the absolute truth.”
Mr. Garland “led Congress to believe the case was insulated from improper political influence because all decisions were being made exclusively by Delaware United States Attorney David Weiss,” Mr. Shapley said.
“But that was not true. The Justice Department allowed the president’s political appointees to weigh in on whether to charge the president’s son.”
Last week, some House GOP members floated the idea of impeaching Mr. Garland after House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) suggested an impeachment inquiry against him.
“When a prosecutor shields his boss’s son from investigators, it smells like a cover-up. Garland’s DOJ did not aggressively follow the money. Why? Are they afraid where that trail ends?” McCarthy wrote for Fox News. “Clearly, someone is not telling the truth, and Congress has a duty to get answers.”
The Epoch Times contacted the Department of Justice on July 23 for comment but received no response by press time.
END
Only in swamp land: Border patrol chief relieved of command the same day he testified before Congress
(zerohedge)
Border Patrol Chief Relieved Of Command Same Day He Testified Before Congress
Gregory K. Bovino, the chief patrol agent of the El Centro Border Patrol sector in California’s imperial valley, offered a transcribed interview with the House Oversight Committee and House Homeland Security Committee on July 12, 2023. According to Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) and Homeland Security Committee Chair Mark Green (R-Tenn.), within hours of finishing his testimony, Mr. Bovino was informed that he had been relieved of his command at the El Centro sector and “reassigned to a vague, indefinite, and temporary headquarters assignment.”
The timing of Mr. Bovino’s reassignment raised suspicions for Mr. Comer and Mr. Green that the CBP had reassigned the Border Patrol official in retaliation for his testimony.
In a letter to acting CBP Commissioner Troy Miller, the two lawmakers shared allegations from a whistleblower that Mr. Bovino’s new assignment is “one of no certain mission, no articulable purpose, and without any timeline of completion.”
“The whistleblower further alleges that this practice is consistent with the way in which CBP officials have dealt with employees who they wish to leave the agency, by placing maximum pressure on them to relocate, retire, or resign,” the Republican lawmakers added.
Citing further whistleblower allegations, Mr. Comer and Mr. Green raised allegations “that Chief Bovino may have produced written testimony in preparation for this hearing that was dissatisfactory to CBP officials: so much so that he was verbally reprimanded by headquarters officials.”
The Republican lawmakers called on the acting CBP commissioner to provide answers about the reassignment. The lawmakers specifically asked for all CBP documents and communications relating to Mr. Bovino’s employment. They also asked for records of any discussions between CBP and Department of Homeland Security or White House officials pertaining to Mr. Bovino’s past congressional testimony or appearances as a witness for transcribed interviews.
The lawmakers further called upon Mr. Miller to be ready to brief House committee staff on this issue by July 28 at the latest.
NTD News reached out to CBP for comment but the agency did not respond by the time this article was published.
According to a CBP statement obtained by The Washington Times, Mr. Bovino was previously reassigned to a headquarters position in 2021, and his subordinates ‘did an excellent job’ handling the El Centro border sector while he was gone. The CBP also claimed it’s dealing with a broader reorganization effort after the overall U.S. Border Patrol chief, Raul Ortiz, retired in June.
Border Patrol Chiefs Previously Blocked From Speaking to Congress
Mr. Bovino was one of several Border Patrol sector chiefs who were invited to testify at a House Oversight Committee hearing earlier this year, but Mr. Comer accused Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas of blocking some of the Border Patrol officials from doing so. Rio Grande Valley Sector Border Patrol Chief Gloria Chavez and Tucson Sector Chief John Modlin did testify, but Mr. Bovino and others did not appear for the hearing.
“It is unfortunate that you are trying to prevent the American people from hearing candid and truthful testimony of U.S. Border Patrol Chief Patrol Agents,” Mr. Comer wrote in a Jan. 27 letter (pdf) to Mr. Mayorkas. “This is necessary oversight, which you and your Department are attempting to block.”
After Mr. Bovino and other Border Patrol officials were blocked from attending the Feb. 7 hearing, Mr. Comer sent a letter (pdf) to Mr. Miller, requesting that he help facilitate interview times for Mr. Bovino and the other Border Patrol officials. Mr. Bovino’s July 12 transcribed interview was the culmination of this earlier effort to get him to talk to members of Congress.
end
Next on the list your water heater
(zerohedge)
Biden Administration’s Next Target: Your Water Heater
TUESDAY, JUL 25, 2023 – 06:55 AM
Not satisfied to confine its green meddling to gas stoves and gas generators, the central planners in the Biden White House now want to raise the price of water heaters by imposing new technology requirements on manufacturers.
On Friday, the unconstitutional Department of Energy proposed new energy-efficiency standards that would require electric water heaters to come equipped with heat pump technology, and gas heaters to use condensing technology. The standards would take effect in 2029. Canadian-born Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm (Associated Press)
Noting that water heating accounts for about 13% of residential energy costs, the Energy Department claimed the new dictates would save consumers $11.4 billion on their energy and water bills each year while reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 501 million metric tons over 30 years.
“Today’s actions—together with our industry partners and stakeholders—improve outdated efficiency standards for common household appliances, which is essential to slashing utility bills for American families and cutting harmful carbon emissions,” said Energy Secretary Jennifer M. Granholm. “This proposal reinforces the trajectory of consumer savings that forms the key pillar of Bidenomics.”
“These products already exist in the free market. Consumers should decide whether the upfront cost of a heat-pump water heater is worth the possible long term savings. In many cases, the monthly savings never make up for the upfront cost of the equipment,” he added.
Several consumer, energy efficiency and environmental groups rushed to endorse the proposed standards — and so did water heater manufacturer Rheem.
“Rheem has been part of a broad coalition to offer important recommendations to inform the development of the new proposed standards,” said Rheem SVP Greg Miller. Of course, as an industry heavyweight accounting for about a third of the residential market, Atlanta-based Rheem stands to benefit from regulations that would force smaller, weaker competitors to spend money on R&D to meet Washington’s new command.
One of those competitors — tankless water heater-maker Rinnai — called the standards “technologically impossible” and warned they’d lead to a narrower range of choices for consumers.
end
very suspicious:
he was a great swimmer
died in only 8 feet of water.
he was writing a book
he was the 2nd cook to die of mysterious causes the first one being the cook for the criminal Clintons
Obama’s Personal Chef Found Dead Near Family’s Martha’s Vineyard Mansion
TUESDAY, JUL 25, 2023 – 07:11 AM
The personal chef of former president Barack Obama was found dead in a “paddleboarding accident” near the family’s $12 million mansion on Martha’s Vineyard (which is situated at sea level, a paradox for fervent believers in the melting iceberg theory).
Massachusetts State Police confirmed that the paddleboarder whose body was recovered from Edgartown Great Pond on Monday was Tafari Campbell, 45, of Dumfries, Virginia.
According to the AP, Campbell was employed by the Obamas and was visiting Martha’s Vineyard. The Obamas were not present at the home at the time of the accident. In a statement, the former president and his wife, Michelle Obama, called Campbell a “beloved part of our family.”
“When we first met him, he was a talented sous chef at the White House – creative and passionate about food, and its ability to bring people together,” the couple said. “In the years that followed, we got to know him as a warm, fun, extraordinarily kind person who made all of our lives a little brighter.”
“That’s why, when we were getting ready to leave the White House, we asked Tafari to stay with us, and he generously agreed. He’s been part of our lives ever since, and our hearts are broken that he’s gone.”
Campbell had worked in the White House during Obama’s eight years in Washington. During that time he helped create some of the most famous presidential recipes, included a beer brewed from ingredients grown at the White House.
On Sunday, Campbell went missing in the waters of Edgartown Great Pond on Martha’s Vineyard. When it was time for the first family to depart Washington, they asked Mr Campbell to join them and he “generously agreed” the Obamas’ statement added.
“He’s been part of our lives ever since, and our hearts are broken that he’s gone. Today we join everyone who knew and loved Tafari – especially his wife Sherise and their twin boys, Xavier and Savin – in grieving the loss of a truly wonderful man.”
The search was launched on Sunday night for “a male paddleboarder who had gone into the water, appeared to briefly struggle to stay on the surface, and then submerged and did not resurface,” according to a police report.
“Another paddleboarder was on the pond with him at the time and observed him go under the water,” it added; it wasn’t clear why the other paddleboarder did not intervene and rescue Obama’s cook.
On Monday, his body was found “approximately 100 feet (30 meters) from shore at a depth of about eight feet”.
It remains unclear how a healthy 45-year old male, who is reportedly a good swimmer, can drown in what is literally an 8 feet deep pond.
The Massachusetts State Police Detective Unit is investigating his death, but it is believed to have been an accident, CBS News reported.
The Obamas said Campbell is survived by his wife and their twin boys.
“Nothing To See Here”: Members & The Media Panic As The Biden Scandal Mounts
Below is my column in the New York Post on the last ditch effort of the members of Congress and the media to get the public to just “move on” from the Biden corruption scandal.
The message has been clear and amplified, as former U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) insisted on MSNBC, “Everybody needs to back off!” As evidence and public interest increase, it is a bit late for spin or shiny objects. This week, the scandal is likely to be even more serious for the Bidens and the country. The media is increasingly taking on the appearance of Leslie Nielsen in Naked Gun yelling that there is “nothing to see here” in front of a virtual apocalyptic scene of fire and destruction.
Here is the column:
“I wonder after this plea happens if you would advise your party to move on?”
That question from CBS’s “Face the Nation” host Margaret Brennan to Republican presidential candidate Chris Christie was raised just days before a former business associate of Hunter Biden, Devon Archer, gives potentially explosive testimony to a House committee in the Biden corruption scandal.
The media’s desire to “move on” from the scandal is reaching an almost frantic level, as millions in foreign payments and dozens of corporate shell companies are revealed, and incriminating emails are released.
The same plaintive demand was made in congressional hearings.
What was most striking about the last hearing involving two respected IRS whistleblowers was how Democratic members avoided virtually any specific questions.
The members discussed everything from the Emmett Till murder in 1955 to whether the term “two-tiered justice system” is racially insensitive … and of course, Donald Trump.
It was clear that the release of the new evidence of corruption had left no room to maneuver for both Democrat politicians and the media.
Any question would now trip a wire on the Bidens, so most avoid the allegations in favor of talking about Trump or other shiny objects.
Goldman bizarrely raised one of the most damaging new pieces of evidence in the investigation.
He asked about a “lunch where Joe Biden came to say hello at the Four Season’s hotel to a lunch that he was having with CEFC executives.”
He then read how Biden associate Rob Walker described the origins of the meeting with the Chinese officials to get his dad to stop by: “Hunter told his Dad that ‘I may be trying to start a company or try to do something with these guys.’ “
Goldman asked slyly, “Now let me ask you something, that doesn’t sound much like Joe Biden was involved in whatever Hunter was doing with the CEFC, if Hunter Biden is telling him that he is trying to do business with them, does it?”
That is when Shapley stated the obvious: “No, but it does show that he told his father that he was trying to do business and . . . ” Goldman finally saw that problem and cut him off with “OK, well that is true that Hunter Biden does try to do business, that is correct.”
The problem is that Goldman just elicited sworn testimony on how Joe Biden did in fact know about these business dealings despite years of categorical denials of having any knowledge or interaction with Hunter or his business associates.
Goldman demolished the Biden defense in less than five minutes.
Now, Archer is expected to testify that Joe Biden participated in actual telephone calls with them. That will allow investigators to build further on the foundation Goldman laid.
Archer will join other witnesses like Hunter’s business associate Tony Bobulinski, who said that he sat down with Joe Biden to discuss the deals. Bobulinski was instructed by Biden associate James Gilliar not to speak of the former veep’s connection to any transactions.
No matter the severity of the revelations, the liberal media calls the investigations a “clown show.”
Others have continued to tell the public that there remain no alleged ties from Hunter to President Biden despite emails, pictures and witness testimony.
Yet it is becoming harder and harder to avoid these details.
With the possible testimony of Hunter’s business associates, the only hope is that Republicans might be convinced to “move on.”
What was most notable about the question to Christie was the reference to the plea bargain.
A year ago, I wrote a column on how the political and media establishment would likely use a “scandal implosion” approach as the evidence mounted over the corruption allegations.
After the Democrats lost the House, there was a need to cap off the scandal and I suggested that the Justice Department would secure a light plea on a couple tax counts with little or no jail time.
Members and the media would then declare the scandal closed and demand that we all “move on.”
It is unnerving to see how the response unfolded so precisely as predicted. Members made repeated reference to the plea bargain to avoid further discussion.
Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D.-Md.) was positively irate that “We are doing this all over again for the Hunter Biden show to someone who has pleaded guilty and has taken responsibility for not filing taxes for two years. This is ludicrous. Beam me up, Scotty. There’s no intelligent life down here. None.”
He then tore up papers in disgust.
Members and the media were literally citing a plea bargain as dispositive, even as two lead investigators were saying it was fixed and politically influenced.
Others insisted that the allegations were still “unproven” or “unverified” while showing the same lack of interest in establishing the truth.
Notably, these same media outlets did wall-to-wall coverage of the false Russian collusion claims in the Steele dossier.
They are now simply shrugging off what could be one of the most serious corruption scandals in modern history despite the testimony of highly credible whistleblowers and thousands of pages of supporting evidence.
Polls show that the public is not “moving on” and now view this as a major scandal. A majority believes that Hunter has received special protection in the investigation. While the media can continue to suppress the evidence and allegations within their own echo-chambered platforms, truth like water has a way of finding a way out.
The scandal is moving forward with or without the media.
THE KING REPORT
The King Report July 25, 2023 Issue 7039
Independent View of the News
German, French, and EU PMIs posted disappointing July results on Monday.
July HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI 38.8, 41.0 expected; 40.6 prior July HCOB Germany Services PMI 52.0, 53.1 expected, 54.1 prior July HCOB Germany Composite PMI 48.3, 49.8 expected, 50.6 prior
July HCOB France Manufacturing PMI 44.5, 46.0 expected, 46 prior July HCOB France Services PMI 47.4, 48.5 expected, 48 prior July HCOB France Composite PMI 47.4, 48.5 expected, 47.2 prior
July HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 42.7, 43.5 expected, 43.4 prior July HCOB Eurozone Services PMI 51.1, 51.6 expected, 52 prior July HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI 48.9, 49.6, 49.9 prior
Brent Oil and WTI Oil hit three-month highs. Gasoline hit a 9-month high. Most of the decline in CPI over the past year was derived from sharp declines in energy prices. Biden’s depletion of the SPR was a major factor in the sharp decline in energy prices. That trend appears to be ending. Does Jerome and his cohorts realize that gasoline has rebounded robustly and oil is heading north again?
USUs fell modestly.
ESUs trade mostly in negative territory and in a tight range until they rallied on the European opening. The rally ended at 5:19 ET. ESUs then traded sideways until they sagged modestly when the US bond market opened at 8 ET. Of course, the usual suspects gratefully bought the dip to prepare for the expected rally into and after the NYSE opening. The rally peaked at 9:41 ET. The pump & dumpers then dumped; ESUs slid 18 handles by 9:52 ET. But it was Monday, an expected rally day – and stocks rally during Fed Week. So, traders again bought the dip. ESUs jumped 14 handles by 10:20 ET.
ESUs and stocks inched higher in choppy action until a peak formed at 12:15 ET. After a moderate retreat, ESUs and stocks plodded higher until the daily high appeared at 14:01 ET. With so many traders long, ESUs and stocks slid, in an A-B-C decline, until 15:30 ET. The late upward manipulation produced an 8-handle rally by 15:47 ET. But that was it; ESUs and stocks then traded sideways into the close.
Positive aspects of previous session The DJIA rallied sharply and has been positive for 11 straight sessions (extremely overbought!)
Negative aspects of previous session Gasoline soared as much as 5%; WTI rallied 2.5% Bonds and notes hit a peak just after the 8 ET bond market opening; USUs were -12/32 at the NYSE close Stocks declined sharply in the afternoon
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Are traders too long for Q2 results and Fed Week?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4553.11 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4563.41; 4541.29
FDIC Warns U.S. Banks on Deposit Accounting: WSJ Bank of America, Huntington National Bank Had Among Biggest Revisions to Uninsured-Deposit Numbers in WSJ Analysis: WSJ Banks Lowered Stated Uninsured Deposits after SVB Collapse, Wall Street Journal Analysis Finds
Today – MSFT and Google report results after the NYSE close; a two-day FOMC Meeting begins. For pattern traders, the window for a rally is open until the FOMC Communique is released. Traders will continue to buy dips, even though stocks look extremely tired and extended. Late action could be influenced by rumors or advance knowledge of MSFT and/or Google’s results.
ESUs are -0.50 at 20:37 ET. Astute traders are concerned that oil & gasoline are singing a sad song.
USUs have formed a triple bottom near 125 29/32 over the past 7 sessions. A decisive break below the triple bottom could make Mr. Bond very sad. Mr. Bond appears to be aware of oil & gasoline’s rallies.
Expected economic data: May FHFA House Price Index 0.6% m/m; May S&P CoreLogic 20-city Home prices 0.7% m/m & -2.1% y/y; July Conference Board Consumer Confidence 112; July Richmond Fed Mfg. Index -10.0
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4336; 100-day MA: 4194; 150-day MA: 4122; 200-day MA: 4057 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,892; 100-day MA: 33,513; 150-day MA: 33,517; 200-day MA: 33,254 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is negative, MACD is positive – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4340.63 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4490.19 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4536.67 triggers a sell signal
In major shift, RFK Jr. calls for corruption investigation of Joe Biden “I think though the issues that are now coming up are worrying enough that we really need a real investigation of what happened,” he said. “I mean, these revelations where you have Burisma — which is a notoriously corrupt company that paid out apparently $10 million to Hunter and his dad — if that’s true, then it is really troubling… I think that that’s something that every American needs to worry about and our federal agencies, which used to be above politics, and now become weaponized as political instruments, and that, again, is another really damaging trend for our democracy,” he said… https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/major-shift-rfk-jr-calls-corruption-investigation-biden
@ChuckRossDC: NEW statement from Devon Archer attorney Matthew Schwartz. He says Archer has testified before a federal grand jury and confirms he will be deposed before Oversight next week.
@HouseGOP: In 2019, Joe Biden claimed, “I never discussed a single thing with my son about anything having to do with Ukraine. No one has indicated I have.” Today we learned that “Hunter then called his father, put him on speaker…and introduced the Ukrainians to Joe Biden…” https://twitter.com/HouseGOP/status/1683476036640464897
@paulsperry_: Veteran FBI agent & DOJ investigator Michael Biasello told me Hunter’s laptop was a goldmine of crimesand the FBI & DOJ obstructed justice burying it instead of mining it: “It’s an FBI and IRS agent’s dream. Public corruption, prostitution, drugs, money laundering, an international (crime) nexus, and a subject, Hunter, with no history of viable employment w/ a net worth in the millions. Public corruption is a major investigative program in the bureau. Intentionally not investigating a federal crime w/ predication is itself corruption.”
Hunter Biden sold $1.3M in art —and buyers include dad’s Democratic donor ‘friend,’ appointee: report – Elizabeth Hirsh Naftali, a Los Angeles real-estate investor and philanthropist, bought one of Hunter’s works… she was appointed by the president to the Commission for the Preservation of America’s Heritage Abroad in July 2022 — about eight months after Hunter’s first gallery opening in SoHo in Manhattan…. https://trib.al/i4rfbBV
With reports of the Bidens’ criminality and corruption proliferating to critical mass, shouldn’t we expect Biden’s DoJ to indict or charge Trump on something ASAP?
US IRS ends policy of unannounced revenue officer visits to taxpayers (Thanks to the looming 2024 Election) http://reut.rs/3KaJSIW
Barack Obama’s Private Chef Dies Mysteriously near the Obama Estate in Martha Vineyard Tragically, Tafari Campbell met with an accident while visiting Martha’s Vineyard, where he was reported missing while paddleboarding in the waters…According to new dispatch calls, Campbell was not wearing a life preserver. It is unknown who made the 9-11 call. There was a second paddleboarder in the vicinity and it is unknown if there are any signs of foul play… https://thepoliticsbrief.com/barack-obamas-private-chef-dies-mysteriously-near-the-obama-estate-in-martha-vineyard/
@tothcsabatibor: Watched Oppenheimer, disappointed that Hungarians weren’t centered enough. Besides Ed Teller & Leó Szilárd, Neumann, Wigner & Kármán also worked on the Manhattan project, and fission chain reaction was first described by the one and only genius of the group: Szilárd. https://t.co/36ulYNp4u7
COVID Intel – by Dr.William Makis
harveyorganblog.com 
