JULY 27/SPREADER AND TAS INDUCED RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS: GOLD CLOSED DOWN $21.80 TO $1947.10//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 59 CENTS TO $24.21//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $25.80 TO $939.00//PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $50.05 TO $1244.95//ECB HIKES BY 25 BASIS POINTS AS EXPECTED//UPDATES ON UKRAINE VS RUSSIA//COVID UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//HOUSING PERMIT DATA FROM THE USA//YELLOW TO SEEK BANKRUPTCY PROTECTION ON MONDAY///SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT…
190 H BMO CAPITAL 6 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 3 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 23 690 C ABN AMRO 15 737 C ADVANTAGE 1
TOTAL: 24 24 MONTH TO DATE: 3,306
JPMorgan stopped 0/24 contracts.
FOR JULY:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JULY/2023. CONTRACT: 24 NOTICES FOR 2400 OZ or 0.07465 TONNES
total notices so far: 3306 contracts for 330,600 oz (10.2830 tonnes)
FOR JULY:
SILVER NOTICES: 32 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 160,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5127 for 25,635,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $21.80
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.26 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.59 AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 452.480 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 647 CONTRACTS TO 146M281 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.15 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A STRONG SIZED 422 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 422 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.15). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPEC LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 583CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 CRIMINAL NOTICES FILED IN THE CATEGORY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TRANSFER FOR 0 MILLION OZ// ( THE TOTAL ISSUED IN THIS CATEGORY SO FAR THIS MONTH TOTAL 5.25MILLION OZ.). WE HAVE NOW RETURNED TO OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY SCENARIO: BANKERS SHORT AND SPECS LONG WITH MANIPULATION NOW MID MONTH AND BEYOND, DUE TO (TAS) MANIPULATION.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A TINY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 64 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 16.110 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 80,000 QUEUE JUMP + 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR TODAY//NEW STANDING: 25.680 MILLION OZ + 5.25 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR: NEW TOTAL 30.93 MILLION OZ// // GOOD SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ TINY SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) GOOD NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (422CONTRACTS)/ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL –1064 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JULY. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 17 days, total 16,840 contracts: OR 84.200 MILLION OZ (990 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 84.200 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 84.200 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 647 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.15 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A TINY EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 64 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF 16.110 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 80,000 OZ QUEUE. JUMP + 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY + (PRIOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK : 5.25 MILLION OZ): TOTAL NOW STANDING 25.680 MILLION OZ NORMAL STANDING + 5.25 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 30.93 MILLION OZ.///// .. WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF583 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A GOOD 422//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION TO CONTAIN SILVER PRICE’S RISE. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TODAY (422) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE./
WE HAD 32 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 160,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2569 CONTRACTS TO 473,607 AND CLOSER TO TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED: 2569 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 2569CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR STRONG $6.35 GAIN IN PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JULY. AT 5.1975 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.09953 TONNE E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON: NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY: 10.2861 TONNES// + /A FAIR (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 2354 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $6.35 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1780 OI CONTRACTS (5.537 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 4349CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 473,607
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1780 CONTRACTS WITH 2569 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A GOOD 4349 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1780CONTRACTS OR 5.537 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 2354 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4349 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (2569) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1780 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) GOOD INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 5.1975 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.09953 TONNE E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON//NEW TOTAL REDUCES TO 10.2861 TONNES ///// /3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH STRONG TAS LIQUIDATION AND SPREADER LIQUIDATION TO CONTAIN GOLD’S PRICE//4) TINY SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2354 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
JULY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 43,187 CONTRACTS OR 4,318,700 OZ OR 134.32 TONNES IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2540 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 134.32 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 134.32/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.77% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 134.32 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 647 CONTRACTS OI TO 146,251 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 64 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 64and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 64 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 647 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 64 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 583 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 2.915 MILLION OZ
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.36 PTS OR 0.20% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 273.97 PTS OR 1.41% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 222.82 PTS OR 0.68% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.72 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.1475 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.1534 /Oil UP TO 79.65 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 83.70 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2569CONTRACTS UP TO 473,607 DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.35 ON WEDNESDAY.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 4349 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 4349 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4349 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1780 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4349LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2569 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GOOD SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.35//WEDNESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 2354 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS INITIATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GOLD/SILVER MARKET AS RAIDS WILL SURELY BE UPON US TRYING TO CONTAIN OUR PRECIOUS METALS RISE IN PRICE. IT MAY BE TO NO AVAIL!!
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JULY (10.2861) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $6.35) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1780 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN GOLD’S RISE. THE TAS ISSUED WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO HAD SOME SPREADER COMEX LIQUIDATION TODAY TOGETHER WITH THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION CONTAINING GOLD’S RISE A BIT.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 5.537 PAPER TONNES OF TOTAL OI FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY. (5.11974 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF 0.09953 TONNES//TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY GOLD REDUCES TO: 10.2861 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $6.35.
WE HAD – REMOVED 2429 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1780 CONTRACTS OR 178,000 OZ OR 5.537 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3306 notices 330600 OZ 10.2830 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
1 dealer deposit:
i) Into ASAHI: 31,940.900 oz
total dealer deposits: 31,940.900 oz
total customer deposits: 0 oz
we had 0 customer withdrawals:
total withdrawals: nil
Adjustments; 1 / customer to dealer//JPMorgan: 385,811.955 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY.
For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 25 contracts having LOST 39 contracts. We had 7 contracts served on Wednesday. Thus we lost 32 contracts or an additional 3200 oz of gold will not stand at the comex as these guys were EFP’d through a transfer to take delivery over in England.
AUGUST LOST 34,012 contracts DOWN to 56,540 contracts. We have 2 more reading days before the big August contract delivery month.
SEPT gained 168 contracts to stand at 1164
We had 24 contracts filed for today representing 2400 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 24 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3306 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (25 CONTRACT) minus the number of notices served upon today 24 x 100 oz per contract equals 330,700 OZ OR 10.2861 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this NON active month of July.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULYcontract month: No of notices filed so far (3306) x 100 oz + (xx) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (24) x 100 oz) which equals 330,700oz standing OR 10.2861 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 10.2861 TONNES WHICH IS STRONG FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,337,753.171 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,122,919.622 (377.07 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,214,833.549 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 10,092,498 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 313.92 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
JULY 27
//2023// THE JULY 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
8245.420 oz
Delaware
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
2017.200 oz Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
32 CONTRACT(S) (160,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
9 contracts (45,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
5127 Contracts (25,635,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into Delaware: 2017.200 oz
total customer deposits: 2017.200 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139.331 million oz/278.572 million =49.91% of comex .//
Comex withdrawals 1
i) Out of Delaware 8245.420 oz
total: 8245.42 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 32.272 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 278.572 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY /2023 OI: 41 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 11 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 26 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 16 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 80,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN JULY,
AUGUST LOST 12 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 814
SEPT HAS A LOSS OF 1339 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 118,767
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 32 for 160,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 83,353 strong/raid /
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 59,768 fair
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5127 x 5,000 oz = 25,635,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY(41) and the number of notices served upon today 32 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY/2023 contract month: 5127 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (41) – number of notices served upon today (32 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 25.680 million oz + 0.0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY//PRIOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALS 5.25 MILLION OZ /NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 30.93 MILLION OZ..WE HAVE 32 MILLION OZ OF REGISTERED SILVER AT THE COMEX//
the record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
JULY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.26 TONNES
JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $6.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.20 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES
JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES
JULY 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.07 TONNES
JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $23.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 14/WITH GOLD UP $0.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES
JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES
JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $24.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.95 TONNES
JULY 11/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.0 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.26 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.26 TONNES.
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES.
JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES
JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.90 TONNES
JULY 3/WITH GOLD UP $1.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES//
JUNE 30/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES
JUNE 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.81 TONNES
JUNE 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.15 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./INVENTORY RESTS AT 925.65 TONNES
JUNE 26/WITH GOLD UP $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 927.10 TONNES
JUNE 23/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: WITHDRAWALS OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY REST AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $22.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 16/WITH GOLD UP $0.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 934.03 TONNES
JUNE 15/WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.70 TONNES
JUNE 14/WITH GOLD UP $10.30 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44 TONNES
JUNE 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.01 TONNES FORM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.44
GLD INVENTORY: 917.26 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JULY 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ
JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/
JULY 25/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/
JULY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/
JULY 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.101 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/
JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.468 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 454.107 MILLION OZ/
JULY 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.856 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 14/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.21 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.881 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .020 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.822 MILLION OZ/
JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.802 MILLION OZ
JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ
JULY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.667 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ//
JULY5/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JULY 3/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 30/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.377 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/////INVENTORY RESTS AT468.141 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.763 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.764 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 27/WILVER SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 734,000 OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 470.527 MILLION OZ
JUNE 26/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY REST AT 469.793 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A NET DEPOSIT OF 6.61 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OVER THESE PAST TWO DAYS//INVENTORY RESTS AT 469.793 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 21/WITH SILVER DOWN $.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.784 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 89 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 16/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 459,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.183 MILLION OZ
JUNE 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.377 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 463.642 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 14/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 735,000 OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.019 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.515 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 465.754 MILLION OZ//
JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 467.269 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 452.480 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
(Schiff Gold)
Millennials Investing In More Gold Than Boomers Or X-ers
Millennials are buying more gold than Boomers or Gen-X, according to a recent survey. But there’s a catch. Millennials are also more likely to invest in paper gold instead of physical metal.
According to the report by State Street, on average, Millennials have 17% of their portfolios allocated to gold. Boomers and X-ers lag with a 10% allocation on average.
About 88% of the investors surveyed who hold gold called it a long-term investment. More than 70% reported that gold boosted the overall performance of their portfolios.
More than half of the respondents who currently invest in gold said they plan to increase their allocation in the next six to 12 months.
But digging a little deeper, we find that Millennials are also more likely to invest in gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) instead of gold bars or gold coins.
Sixty-five percent of Millennials said ETFs were the best way to invest in gold compared to Boomers at 55%. X-ers are far more likely to invest in physical gold. Only 35% of Gen-X respondents said they thought ETFs were the best way to hold gold.
While ETFs provide exposure to the price of gold and can serve a similar role in a portfolio, owning shares of a gold ETF is not the same as owning gold.
ETFs are backed by physical gold held by the issuer and are traded on the market like stocks. They allow investors to play gold without having to buy full ounces of gold at spot price. Since their purchase is just a number in a computer, they can trade their investment into another stock or cash pretty much whenever they want, even multiple times on the same day. Many speculative investors appreciate this liquidity.
There are also gold mining ETFs that track the value of gold mining companies and also generally follow the price of gold. These are very popular with speculative commodity investors.
There are good reasons to invest in ETFs, but they aren’t a substitute for owning physical metal. In an overall investment strategy, SchiffGold recommends buying gold bullion first.
When considering gold-backed ETFs, you should always keep in mind that you don’t own the gold. Buying the most common ETFs does not entitle you to any actual amount of the precious metal.
Having physical metal in your possession is particularly important in the event of an economic meltdown. Think about it: what would you rather have in your possession during a crisis – a piece of paper, or a physical asset recognized as real money all over the world?
Gold-backed ETFs are prized for their liquidity and ease of transfer, but during a period of economic chaos, those characteristics would likely vanish. Crisis creates uncertainty. Panicked people won’t value paper that may or may not represent a tangible asset. But they will value physical metal that they can hold in their hands.
In the event of an economic collapse, barter could become an important means of conducting business. That’s exactly what happened in Greece during its economic meltdown. You can use gold coins and easily barter in an emergency. People all over the world recognize gold as money. It’s much less certain that you would be able to liquidate an ETF during a time of crisis.
Consider a case of a dollar collapse or hyperinflation. The rapidly rising price of consumer goods, from groceries to gasoline, would make day-to-day living very difficult. Even if you managed to liquidate your gold-backed ETF, the currency you pull out would rapidly lose value. Physical gold, in your hand, would be immune to the government’s printing press. In all likelihood, your gold would buy you the same basket of goods and services a month, or even a year later. The cash you pulled from your gold-backed ETF would likely purchase far less as time goes on.
Although gold-backed ETFs offer an easy way to invest in gold, you always have to remember that you don’t own what you can’t hold in your own hands. There is always “counterparty risk.” The fact you possess an ETF does not give you the right to redeem it for actual gold. The owner of the gold is backing your investment, and promising to pay you dollars.
Physical gold offers stability and certainty in your investment. You can put a gold coin in your pocket. With a gold-backed ETF, all you have is a piece of paper representing a legal promise. That’s well and good in normal market conditions – but in a real emergency, promises are easily broken.
Gold-backed ETFs have a place in an overall investment scheme. But for security in the event of a crisis, they simply cannot replace physical gold.
Below we separate the hype from the sad reality of the USD in the face of a new “BRICS currency.”
Net conclusion: The real death of the USD will be domestic not foreign.
The Bell Has Been Tolling for Years
When it comes to the “bell tolling for fiat,” we can all hear its loud chimes, but that bell has been tolling since 1971 (or frankly 1968), when the US leadership decoupled the world reserve currency from its golden chaperone.
Like any teenager throwing a house party, the lack of a parental chaperone leads to lots of crazy events and lots of broken furniture.
The same is true of post-71 politicians and central bankers suddenly freed of a gold-backed chaperone and thus suddenly loaded with drunken power to mouse-click currencies and expand deficits.
And since then, all kinds of things have been breaking, from banks to bonds to currencies.
And now, with all the extreme hype (and, yes, some genuine reality) behind the headlines of a revolutionary gold-backed BRICS trade currency, many are making sensational claims that the World Reserve Currency (i.e., USD) is nearing its end and that fiat money from DC to Tokyo is effectively toast.
Hmmm…
Don’t Bury the Dollar Just Yet
Before we start tossing red roses over the shallow grave of an admittedly grotesque US Greenback in general, or fiat fantasy money in general, let’s all take a deep breath.
That is, let’s re-think through this inevitable funeral with a bit more, well, realism, mathematics and even geopolitical common sense before we turn our backs on the USD, and this is coming from an author who has never thought highly of that Dollar, be it fiat, politicized and now weaponized.
So, let’s take a deep breath and engage open, informed and critical minds when it comes to debating many of the still open, un-known and critical issues surrounding the so-called “game changer” event when the BRICS+ nations convene this August in S. Africa.
Needed Context for the “BRICS New Currency” Debate
As made clear literally from Day 1 of the Western sanctions against Putin, the West may have been aiming for Putin’s (or the Ruble’s) chest, but it then shot itself in the foot.
After decades of DC exporting USD inflation from Argentina to Moscow, a large swath of the developing countries of the world who owe greater than $14T in USD-denominated debt were already reeling under the pain of rate-hike gyrations which made their own debt and currency markets flip and flop like a dying fish on the dock.
Needless to say, a 500-basis-point spike in the cost of that debt under Powell didn’t help. In fact, it did little good (or goodwill) for USD friends and enemies alike, from the gilt markets in London to the fruit markets in Santiago.
Adding insult to injury, DC coupled this strong-Dollar policy with a now weaponized-Dollar policy in which a nuclear and economic power like Russia had its FX reserves frozen and access to SDRs and SWIFT transactions blocked.
Like Napoleon at Moscow, this was going a step too far…
The net result was an obvious and immediate distrust of that once neutral world reserve currency, an outcome which economists like Robert Triffin warned our congress against in 1960, and even John Maynard Keyes warned the world against long before.
Heck, even Obama warned against such weaponization of a reserve currency as recently as 2015.
Thus, and as I (and many others) warned from Day 1 of the sanctions, the distrust for the USD unleashed by the sanctions in early 2022 was “a genie that can never go back in the bottle.”
Or more simply stated, the trend toward de-dollarization was now going to come at greater speed and with greater force.
This force, of course, is now being seen, as well as debated, under the highly symbolic as well as substantive example of the BRICS+ nations seeking to usher in a gold-backed trade currency to move openly away from the USD, a move which some maintain will soon de-throne the USD as a world reserve currency and send its value immediately to the ocean floor.
The Trend Away from the USD Is Clear, But It’s Pace Is Not
For me, the trajectory of this de-dollarization trend is fairly obvious; but the speed and knowable magnitude of these changes are where I take a more realistic (i.e., less sensational) stance.
But before I argue why, let’s agree on what we do know.
The BRICS New Currency Is Very Real
We know, for example, that Russian finance experts like Sergei Glasyev have real motives and sound reasons for planning a new (anti-Dollar) financial system which not only seeks a Eurasian Economic Union for cross boarder trade settlements backed by local currencies and commodities, but to which gold will likely be added as a “backer” to the same.
Glasyev has also made headlines with plans regarding the Moscow World Standard as a far more fair-playing and fair-priced gold exchange alternative to the Western LBMA exchange.
If we take his gold backing plans seriously, we must also take seriously the plan to expand such gold-backed trade currency plans into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization which would make the final tally of BRICS+ nations “going gold” as high as 41 country codes.
This could ostensibly mean greater than 50% of the world’s population and GDP would be trading in a gold-backed settlement currency outside of the USD, and that, well, matters to both the demand and strength of that Dollar…
China’s Motives Are Also Anti-Dollar
China, moreover, has invested heavily in the Belt & Road Initiative (152 countries) as well as in massive infrastructure projects in Africa and South America, areas of the world that are all too familiar with America’s intentional (or at least cyclical) modus operandi of developing nations enjoying low US rates and cheaper Dollars to create local credit booms which later crash and burn into a local debt crisis whenever those US rates and Dollars rise.
China therefore has a vested interest in protecting its EM investments as well as EM export markets in a currency outside of a USD monopoly.
Meanwhile, as the US is making less and less friends with EM markets, Crown Princes, French Presidents and EU and UK bond markets, China has been busy brokering peace between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as well as building a literal bridge between the latter and Iraq while simultaneously making Yuan-trade deals with Argentina.
Other Reasons to Take the BRICS+ Currency Seriously
Tag on the fact that Brazil, China and Iran are trading outside the USD-denominated SWIFT payment system, and it seems fairly clear that much of the world is leaning toward what Zoltan Poszar described as a “commodity rather that debt-based trade settlement currency” for which Charles Gave (and the BRICS+ nations) see gold as an “essential element” to that global new trend.
Finally, with a strong Greenback making USD energy and other commodity prices painfully (if not fatally) too expensive for large swaths of the globe, it’s no secret to those same large swaths of the globe (including petrodollar nations…) that gold holds its value far better than a USD.
Given this fact, it’s easy to see why BRICS+ nations wish to settle trades in a gold-backed local currency in order to ease the pressure on commodity prices. This gives them the opportunity, as Luke Gromen reminds, to buy time to pay down their other USD-denominated debt obligations.
In addition to the foregoing arguments, the fact that the BRICS+ nations are cloning IMF and World Bank swing loan and “contingency reserve asset” infrastructure programs under their own Asian Monetary Fund and New Development Bank, it becomes more than clear that a new BRICS+ world, trade currency and institutionalized infrastructure is as real as the trend away from a monopolar hegemony of the USD.
In short, and to repeat: There are many, many reasons to both see and trust the obvious and current trend/trajectory away from the USD as warned over a year ago, all of which, no matter what the slope and degree, will be good, very good for gold (see below).
But here’s the rub: The speed, scope, efficiency and ramifications of this trend in general, and the “BRICS August Game Changer” in particular, are far too complex, fluid and unknown to make any immediate (or “sensational”) funeral plans for the USD today.
And here’s a few reasons as to why.
Why the BRICS New Currency Is No Immediate Threat to the USD
First, we have to ask the very preliminary question as to whether the August BRICS summit will even involve an actual announcement of a new, gold-backed trading currency.
So far, all we have to go on is a leak from a Russian embassy in Kenya, not an official communication from the Kremlin or CCP.
Meanwhile, India, a key BRICS member, has openly denied such a new trade currency as a fixed agenda item for this August.
But notwithstanding such media noise, we must also look a bit deeper into the mechanics, economics and politics of a sudden “game-changer” new currency.
The BRICS New Currency: Many Operational Questions Still Open
Mechanically speaking, for example, who will indeed be the issuing entity of this new currency?
The new BRICS Bank?
What will be the actual gold coverage ratio? 10% 15% 20%?
Will BRICS+ member nations/central banks need to deposit their physical gold in a central depository, or will they enjoy (most likely) the flexibility of pledging their domestically-held gold as an accounting-only-unit?
Cohesion Among the Distrusting?
As important, just how much trust and cohesion is there among the BRICS+ nations?
Sure, this collection of nations may trust gold more than they trust each other or the US (which is why such a gold-backed trade currency may work, as it can’t be “inflated away”), but if a BRICS member country wishes to redeem its gold from say, Russia, years down the road, can it realistically assume it will happen?
What if Russia (or any other trade partner) is in a nastier mood tomorrow than they are today?
Basic Math
In addition, there are certain economic/mathematical issues to consider.
We know, for example, that the collective BRICS+ gold reserve (as of Q1 2023) is just over 5452 tones, valued today at approximately $350B.
Enough, yes to stake a new currency.
But measured against a net global amount of $13T in total physical gold, are the BRICS+ gold reserves enough to make a sizable dent (even at a partial coverage ratio) to tilt the world away from the USD overnight, when the USA, at least officially, has much, much more gold than the BRICS+?
That said, we can’t deny that the actual gold stores in places like Russia and China are far, far higher than officially reported by the World Gold Council.
Additionally, the historically unprecedented rate of central bank gold stacking in 2022-23 seems to suggest that the enemies of the USD are indeed “loading their guns” for a reason.
Expecting, however, all of the BRICS+ members to maintain the discipline to continue to purchase and store more physical gold despite the political temptations to redeem the same for later or unexpected domestic spending needs may be a naive assumption in a real world of ever-shifting national behaviors.
Geopolitical Considerations & the BRICS New Currency
Speaking of such shifting behaviors, we also can’t ignore the various pro and con forces within a geopolitical backdrop wherein much of the world, whether it loves or hates the US, still needs its USDs and USTs.
China, for example, may be letting maturities run and even dumping the USTs it now owns at a fast pace (only years away from total UST liquidation), but for now, China needs to keep the USD from growing too weak to buy all the Chinese exports of those American products made, in well…China.
That said, if the trend is indeed a new world of currency wars, rather than currency cooperation, which is a more than fair assumption, then all such liberal economic cooperation/trade arguments fall to the floor.
Nevertheless, with over $30T worth of USDs held by non-US parties in the form of bonds, stocks, and checking accounts, the collective desire (common interest) to keep those USDs alive and at least relatively strong is a major counter-force to the notion that the world and USD are coming to a sudden change this August.
Furthermore, in such an uncertain world of competing currencies as well as national and individual self-interests, the trillions and trillions of off-shored USTs/USDs tangled up within the foreign as well as US banking and derivative markets is important.
Why?
Because any massive dislocation in risk asset (and even currency) markets emanating from South Africa or elsewhere, in August or much later, would more than likely (and ironically) cause a disruption in foreign markets so dramatic that we could easily see a flow into, rather than away from, USDs for the simple (and again ironic) reason that the mean and ugly Greenback is still the best/most-demanded horse in the global fiat slaughter house.
In other words, even if all the BRICS+ plans for a gold-backed trading currency go flawlessly, the time gap between the accepted rise of such a settlement currency and the open fall of the USD is likely to be long, wide and unknown enough to see the USD actually get stronger rather than weaker before we experience any final fall in the USD as a global reserve currency.
The USD: Supremacy (Still) vs. Hegemony (Gone)
So, no, I don’t think that the USD will fall entirely from grace or even supremacy in August of 2023, even if the trend away from its prior hegemony is becoming increasingly undeniable.
It will take more than sensational BRICS headlines to make such a rapid change, but yes, and as the Sam Cooke song says, “change is gonna come.”
My only point is that for now, and for all the reasons cited above, the trajectory and speed of those changes are likely not as sensational as the trajectory and speed of the current headlines.
No Matter What: Gold Wins
The case for gold, of course, does not change just because the debate about the speed and scope of the new BRICS+ trade currency rages today.
No matter what, the very fact that such a gold-backed trade settlement unit will inevitably come to play will be an equally inevitable tailwind for global gold demand and hence global gold pricing in all currencies, including the USD.
The Dollar Will Die from Within, Not from Without
Furthermore, and despite all the hype as well as substance behind the BRICS headlines, I see the evolution of such a gold-backed trade currency as a reaction to, rather than attack upon, the USD, whose real and ultimate threat comes from within, rather than outside, its borders.
The world is losing trust in the USD because US policy makers killed it from within.
Ever since Nixon took the gold chaperone away, politicians and central bankers have been deficit spending like drunken high school seniors in a room filled with beer but absent of parental consent.
The entire world has long known what many Americans are finally seeing from inside their own walls, namely: The US will never, ever be able to put its fiscal house in order.
Uncle Sam is simply too far in debt and there’s simply no way out as it approaches a wall of open and obvious fiscal dominance in which fighting inflation will only (and again, ironically) cause more inflation.
Or stated simply, Uncle Sam can’t afford his own ever-increasing and entirely unpayable deficit spending habits without having to resort to trillions and trillions of more mouse-clicked Dollars to keep yields in check and IOUs from defaulting.
And that, far more than a BRICS new currency, is what will put the final rose on a fiat system (and Dollar) that is already openly but slowly dying—first slowly, then all at once.
But I don’t think that day will be August 22.
END
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
A good read: how the banks $118 billion capital buffer will be wiped out by Basel iii
(Bloomberg News)
Banks’ $118 billion capital buffer likely to be wiped out by Basel III rules
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-07-26 11:47Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jennifer Surane,and Katanga Johnson Bloomberg News Wednesday, July 26, 2023
Wall Street’s biggest banks are preparing for new regulations that could erase almost all of the $118 billion in excess capital they squirreled away over the past decade, likely crimping shareholder buybacks for years to come.
The Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will vote Thursday to propose the measures during two separate open meetings, marking the first hurdle in putting the United States on track to adopt its final version of international banking standards known as the Basel III endgame.
Ahead of the meetings, both regulators, along with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, plan to release hundreds of pages of documents detailing the changes.
“There’s certainly a great deal of angst from investors around these expected proposals,” Jason Goldberg, an analyst at Barclays, said in an interview. “Share repurchases could be lower than desired in the near term. Ultimately we would expect the group to adapt and move forward.” …
Record quarterly gold production and solid cost performance – Record quarterly gold production reflects 100% ownership of Canadian Malartic for the full quarter, combined with a strong operational performance at all producing sites. Payable gold production1 in the second quarter of 2023 was 873,204 ounces at production costs per ounce of $851, total cash costs per ounce2 of $840 and all-in sustaining costs (“AISC”) per ounce3 of $1,150
Operational performance drives strong quarterly financial results – The Company reported quarterly net income of $0.66 per share in the second quarter of 2023, with adjusted net income4 of $0.65 per share. Operating cash flow was $1.46 per share
Strong operating and safety performance at all mine sites – Gold production and costs in the second quarter of 2023 were better than anticipated, reflecting strong operating performance across the Company’s mines, despite the challenges related to wildfires in northern Ontario and Quebec and the caribou migration in Nunavut. Lower than expected costs reflect a strong operating performance, favourable foreign exchange rates and the easing of certain inflationary pressures
Important milestones achieved across the portfolio – At the Canadian Malartic complex, the team celebrated production of its seventh million ounce in June. In addition, Detour Lake, Goldex and Macassa each achieved record quarterly mill throughput rates, while Meliadine recorded its best ever monthly mill throughput in May 2023
Gold production, cost and capital expenditure guidance reiterated for 2023 – Expected payable gold production in 2023 remains unchanged at approximately 3.24 to 3.44 million ounces with total cash costs per ounce expected to be between $840 and $890 and AISC per ounce expected to be between $1,140 and $1,190. Total capital expenditures (excluding capitalized exploration) for 2023 are still estimated to be approximately $1.42 billion. The Company’s 2023 production guidance assumes Kittila operates at an annual rate of 1.6 million tonnes per annum (“Mtpa”). A decision by the Supreme Court of Finland (the “SAC”) to either maintain the 1.6 Mtpa permit or revert to the 2.0 Mtpa permit is expected in the third quarter of 2023
Solid cash flow generation strengthens the Company’s balance sheet and liquidity position – During the second quarter of 2023, the Company repaid $900 million of the amounts drawn on its unsecured revolving bank credit facility. The amount repaid on the unsecured revolving bank credit facility was repaid using $300 million in cash on hand and $600 million drawn on an unsecured term loan facility (the “Term Loan Facility”) which the Company entered into in the quarter. Additionally on June 30, 2023, the Company repaid the $100 million 4.54% Series A senior notes at maturity. As at June 30, 2023, the Company’s long term debt was $1,942.0 million and its net debt5 was $1,509.5 million.
Update on key value drivers and pipeline projects
Odyssey mine at the Canadian Malartic complex – In June 2023, the Company released the results of a new internal study reflecting significant project advancements, an improved valuation and opportunities to further enhance value (see the news release dated June 20, 2023). Shaft sinking activities ramped up through the quarter, with approximately 60 metres sunk as at June 30, 2023. Production via the ramp at the Odyssey South deposit increased through the quarter and remains on schedule to reach a planned rate of 3,500 tonnes per day (“tpd”) in 2024. Drilling activities focused on infilling the internal zones at the Odyssey South deposit and mineral resource expansion of the East Gouldie deposit to the east and west
Detour Lake – In the second quarter of 2023, the mill set a record for quarterly throughput, with an improved mill availability of 92.8%. The continued focus on mill process optimization and mill availability is tracking well to reach and potentially exceed, throughput of 28.0 Mtpa. The Company is advancing the underground mining scenario study based on a revised mineral resource model and expects to report the results of this study in the first half of 2024
Optimization of assets and infrastructure in the Abitibi Gold Belt – The Company continued to advance several internal evaluations to assess potential production opportunities at the Macassa Near Surface and the Amalgamated Kirkland (“AK”) deposits, and at the Upper Beaver and Wasamac projects. These evaluations include an assessment of ore transportation via rail or truck to the Company’s existing processing facilities in the region, with a goal of increasing future gold production at lower capital costs and with a reduced environmental footprint. The results of these evaluations are expected to be reported in the first half of 2024
Positive exploration results at Detour, Meliadine, Kittila and Hope Bay
Based on exploration success in the first half of 2023, a supplemental exploration budget of $32 million has been approved – The Company’s exploration program returned positive results in the first half of 2023 at several key operating sites and projects, showing excellent potential to identify additional mineral resources and replace mineral reserves. These results support the focused addition of supplemental budgets. An update on selected exploration programs and budgets is set out in the sections below
Detour – Drilling continues to investigate the deposit below the West Pit mineral reserve and the western plunge extension of the mineralization to confirm the mineralized zones potentially amenable to underground mining. Drill results below the West pit reserve continue to demonstrate potential for a higher grade envelope with a recent intercept yielding 12.9 grams per tonne (“g/t”) gold over 12.9 metres at 400 metres depth, while two kilometres west of the open pit mineral reserves mineralization remains open with a recent intercept returning 2.8 g/t gold over 14.4 metres at 1,061 metres depth
Meliadine – Drilling continues to investigate the vertical extensions of the mineralized zones in the central part of the Tiriganiaq, Wesmeg and Wesmeg North deposits. At Wesmeg North, a recent intercept yielded 6.3 g/t gold over 7.4 metres at 558 metres depth. Approximately 1.5 kilometres southeast of Tiriganiaq at the F-Zone deposit, a recent intercept yielded 6.4 g/t gold over 16.0 metres at 167 metres depth in the upper portion of the deposit
Kittila – Drilling has extended the Rimpi Main Zone to the north, outside of the current mineral resources, with a recent intercept yielding 7.2 g/t gold over 4.5 metres at 1,102 metres depth. In the Roura area close to the shaft bottom, a recent intercept in the Main Zone yielded 7.7 g/t gold over 7.3 metres at 1,152 metres depth. At shallow depth in the Rimpi area, the Parallel / Sisar Zone was identified in an area that has received limited drilling to date, yielding 3.1 g/t gold over 4.5 metres at 142 metres depth and opening a new near-surface target area for future exploration
Hope Bay project – A total of nine exploration drill rigs were operating at the Doris and Madrid deposits and regionally during the second quarter. At Doris, drilling in the BCO Zone continued to return good grades and thicknesses to further confirm the potential to expand the zone along strike. At Madrid, drilling focused on a two-kilometre long, previously untested gap between the Suluk and Patch 7 zones, with new highlight intercepts of 10.0 g/t gold over 14.0 metres at 677 metres depth and 13.7 g/t gold over 4.6 metres at 697 metres depth. This drilling confirms the potential of Madrid/Suluk/Patch 7 as it extends the high-grade Patch 7 Zone by 500 metres vertically and by 900 metres laterally at depth
A quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share has been declared
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1475
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1534
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6,36 PTS OR 0.20%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 273.97 PTS OR 1.41%
2. Nikkei closed UP 222.82 PTS OR 0.68%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 100.61 EURO RISES TO 1.1125 UP 47 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.441 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 140.61/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: UP// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.401***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.062*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.455…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.724
3j Gold at $1968.20 silver at: 24.93 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 4 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 90.19//
3m oil into the 79 dollar handle for WTI and 83 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 140.21// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER BREAKING .54%, FALLS TO 0.441% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8574 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9537 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.865 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.944 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.833 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.95…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 1 BASIS PTS AT 4.3040
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
S&P Futures Soar To 2023 High After Dovish Fed, Meta Earnings
THURSDAY, JUL 27, 2023 – 07:55 AM
US futures and global stocks soared, and the dollar slumped as investors wagered that the Fed has reached the end of its 16-month long policy-tightening cycle. A barrage of earnings beats (sorry Mike Wilson) from high-profile companies added to the bullish momentum, propelling the Stoxx Europe 600 index 1% higher to a two-month high, while US futures pointed to a strong Wall Street session after Fed Chair Powell failed to dent market optimism during his press conference. At 7:30am Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.3%, led by an 9% premarket surge in Facebook parent Meta Platforms which reported blowout guidance for Q3; S&P futures rose 0.6% to a fresh 2023 high at 4,623. Treasury yields dropped on the short end, while the dollar pushed lower. Oil and gold prices are up. Iron ore, meanwhile, is trading lower. Today, we will receive a slew of growth and inflation data. As Fed staff now dropped US recession forecast, today’s growth data will be important to assess the soft-landing scenario. Keep an eye on banks stocks as Fed will hold meeting at 1pm ET today to implement Basel 3 endgame agreement.
In premarket trading, megacap techs are higher led by META which has soared 9% post earnings after the Facebook parent gave a revenue forecast ahead of consensus, driven by a recovery in advertising sales. Analysts note that AI-powered tools are boosting engagement and advertiser return, with several upping their price targets. Chipmakers also advanced, led by Micron Technology which highlighted its development of high-bandwidth memory products. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
US airline stocks drop in US premarket trading after results from peer Southwest Air showed that rising costs weighed even as demand for travel over the summer was strong, sending its shares as much as 7.4% lower in premarket trading.
American Airlines -2%, United Airlines -1.3%, Delta Air Lines -1.2%, JetBlue Airways -3.2%
Comcast gained more than 4% after beating profit estimates.
EBay shares drop 5.9% after the online marketplace’s third-quarter earnings outlook missed estimates. Analysts said the beat in the company’s second-quarter results was overshadowed by the guidance, with Jefferies expressing concern that growth initiatives could result in reduced margins without an uplift in gross merchandise volume and profit.
Estee Lauder shares fall 0.8%, after Jefferies downgraded the beauty products maker to hold from buy, along with peer Coty, on worries over a recovery in China.
The move higher came after the Fed raised the federal funds rate to a 22-year high and while it signaled further hikes would be data dependent, many investors concluded that it’s done hiking interest rates (just tell them not to look at the soaring price of gasoline and food). They have trimmed bets on more increases this year, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed to signs that higher borrowing costs are working to curb price pressures. Meanwhile, a predicted 25-basis-point rate rise later Thursday from the European Central Bank could be one of its last moves this cycle.
“There is belief that the Fed is probably done,” said Timothy Graf, head of EMEA macro strategy at State Street Bank & Trust Co. “Markets are also seeing a US economy that’s held up far better than the consensus outlook. They are pricing that we have achieved a landing that everyone thought would be impossible to achieve.”
What’s more, gloomy forecasts for an earnings recession have failed to materialise, according to Graf, with equity moves showing “people were under-invested in a lot of the big themes that generated returns this year.” Indeed, surprisingly strong earnings have shattered views that the US is in an earnings recession. More than half of all companies have beat analyst estimates so far, and today stands to be the busiest of the second-quarter calendar.
European stocks followed US equity futures and Asian counterparts higher ahead of the ECB decision today. The Stoxx 600 is up 1% after snapping a six-session win streak on Wednesday, with the media, technology and construction sectors leading gains. Among individual European movers, BNP Paribas SA, Nestle SA and Carrefour SA all rallied after topping estimates. On the downside, Shell Plc retreated despite pledging more buybacks as its profits fell from last year’s highs. Barclays Plc slumped on back of a 41% decline in quarterly trading revenue. Here are the most notable European movers:
Nestle shares rise as much 2%, the most in six weeks, after the food giant lifted the lower end of its forecast range for full- year sales growth
Universal Music Group gains as much as 12%, biggest increase on record, as its second-quarter revenue beat estimates driven by growth from its recorded music and merchandising segments
BNP Paribas shares advance as much as 4.3%, second-best performer in the Stoxx 600 Banks Index, after it reported what Morgan Stanley says are a strong set of results, while RBC also notes “reassuring” cost control
RELX shares jump as much as 4.3%, the biggest intraday gain since Feb. 16, after the information and analytics company reported adjusted operating profit that beat estimates
Inchcape shares rise as much as 14%, the most since 2009, after the UK car dealer reported strong revenue growth for the first half, boosted by its recent acquisition of US distributor Derco
Air Liquide rises as much as 1.6% after the gas company reported first-half Ebit and margins that exceeded estimates. Performance in the Americas was supported by higher prices in Industrial Merchant and strength in Healthcare, says Morgan Stanley
Shell drops as much as 2.3% after the oil company’s second-quarter profit missed estimates as commodity prices trended down
Neste shares plunge as much as 13%, most since March 2020, after the Finnish refiner reported adjusted Ebitda for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. RBC says the company’s outlook and sales were underwhelming
Airbus shares slump 2.5% as analysts voice caution over the company’s decision to remove its target for raising aircraft production past pre-Covid levels and shift the focus to a longer-term goal
Barclays shares dropped as much as 6.7% as the announcement of a buyback failed to lift the mood after the UK bank’s corporate and investment bank revenues fell short of expectations for the second quarter
Teleperformance shares slump as much as 12%, the most in three months, after the provider of customer-relationship management services cut its revenue growth forecast for the year, saying it expects economic challenges to continue in the second half
St James’s Place shares slide as much as 12%, the biggest intraday decline since March 2020, after the investment management company reported first- half net inflows that missed estimates. Citi said the company’s flows were pressured by the macroeconomic backdrop
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks climbed, with a rally in Chinese technology stocks and speculation that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle helping drive the regional benchmark toward its 2023 high. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped as much as 1%, set for a fourth day of gains and approaching this year’s peak seen in late January. Chinese tech companies provided the biggest boost as electric-vehicle shares surged on plans by Volkswagen AG to invest in XPeng. The EV maker’s stock soared 33%, leading the rally in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index and putting it on track for a technical bull market. Equities in most of Asia’s emerging markets rose as the dollar slid following the Fed’s meeting. A weaker greenback is seen as beneficial for growth in the region’s developing economies, many of which rely on imports priced in dollars.
Japanese stocks also edged higher ahead of a monetary policy decision on Friday. KOSPI gained with the spotlight on earnings including Samsung Electronics which topped estimates.
The MSCI Asia Pacific gauge is up 2.6% so far this week, boosted by a rebound in Chinese shares after authorities signaled further property easing and a consumption boost to revive a struggling economy. The regional benchmark is up 9.3% this year, versus a gain of almost 19% in the S&P 500 Index. “The near-term outlook for Asian equities is improving, with some of the macro headwinds facing the market in the past 18 months likely to turn into tailwinds,” said Soo Hai Lim, head of Asia ex-China equities at Barings. “If the second half of the year sees central-bank tightening efforts wind down and earnings to guide higher, investor sentiment toward Asian equities should also improve.”
Australia’s stock market was led by strength in real estate and tech. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.7% to 7,455.90, its highest close since Feb. 9, in a rally led by property and tech shares. The advance comes amid optimism the Fed is close to the end of its tightening cycle after the central bank said any further tightening would be data dependent. Read: Fed Raises Rates as Powell Keeps Options Open for Future Hikes In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index was little changed at 11,954.11
Stocks in India declined Thursday as fast-moving consumer goods firms dropped on worries over volume growth, and Mahindra led a retreat in automakers after its surprise stake disclosure in a small-sized lender. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.7% to 66,266.82 in Mumbai, posting a fourth drop in five sessions, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index slid 0.6%. They gauges rose 0.5% each on Wednesday. HDFC Bank contributed the most to the index decline, while Mahindra was the top decliner. The automaker closed 6.3% lower after analysts were surprised by its stake purchase in RBL Bank. The company’s market value dropped by $1.5 billion to $21.9 billion, wiping off its gains since start of the month. Out of 31 shares in the Sensex index, 9 rose and 20 fell, while 2 were unchanged.
In FX, The Bloomberg dollar index fell for the third day, extending Wednesday’s 0.3% drop, when Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell’s comments bolstered bets that the US tightening cycle is near an end. The Swedish krona and Norwegian krone are the best performers. EUR/USD climbed as much as 0.5% to 1.1144 ahead of the European Central Bank’s policy decision later on Thursday, where it’s set to announce a 25 basis-point rate increase. GBP/USD rose for a third day, but weakened slightly against the euro. Traders trimmed wagers on further rate hikes after a report that advisers to the Treasury are increasingly concerned over the extent of UK rate hikes. Market pricing now favors a quarter-point increase in August, which on a closing basis would the first time that’s happened since last month’s half-point hike. They also continued to pare bets on how high interest rates would rise this cycle, with pricing for the terminal rate edging back below 6%. That’s down from more than 6.5% expected earlier this month. AUD/USD rose as much as 0.9% to 0.6821 as yuan gains fueled leveraged demand for the currency and put large buy stops above 0.6850 into play.
In rates, treasuries mixed with short-end yields lower by 2bp-3bp as US trading day begins, extending the bull-steepening move that followed Wednesday’s Fed rate increase and Chair Powell’s evenhanded comments regarding additional hikes. Real-money buying in front end during Asian hours was a factor, Citi strategists said in a note; yields and key curve spreads remain inside ranges established over past week however. Yields beyond the 5-year are little changed ahead of 7-year note auction at 1pm New York time; $35b sale is the final coupon sale of the May-July financing quarter; Treasury Department is slated to announce auction sizes for August-October next week, and increases are broadly expected. WI 7-year yield at ~3.98% is higher than auction results since February and ~15bp higher than last month’s; yields across the Treasury curve were driven to YTD highs during the first week of July by strong employment data, but have since moderated from those levels.
In commodities, crude futures advance with WTI rising 1.1% to trade near $79.60. Spot gold adds 0.3%
Bitcoin is little changed in another narrow range with specifics somewhat light as broader market action remains at the whim of Central Banks and earnings, with the ECB next after the FOMC avoided shaking the boat.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the ECB’s latest policy decision and President Lagarde’s press conference. Otherwise, data releases from the US include US 2Q GDP, June preliminary durable goods orders, weekly initial jobless claims, June advance goods trade balance and June wholesale and retail inventories (all at 8:30am), June pending home sales (10am) and July Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Finally, earnings releases include Mastercard, McDonald’s, Intel and Ford.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 4,622.00
STOXX Europe 600 up 1.0% to 470.31
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.48%
Euro up 0.4% to $1.1135
MXAP up 0.8% to 170.14
MXAPJ up 0.8% to 537.73
Nikkei up 0.7% to 32,891.16
Topix up 0.5% to 2,295.14
Hang Seng Index up 1.4% to 19,639.11
Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,216.67
Sensex down 0.5% to 66,341.22
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 7,455.92
Kospi up 0.4% to 2,603.81
Brent Futures up 0.7% to $83.48/bbl
Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,977.54
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.27% to 100.62
Top Overnight News
A bill that will widen the pool of men liable to be called up to serve in the Russian army has passed through a key security committee, bringing it closer to being signed into law by president Vladimir Putin. Men aged 18 to 27 are currently eligible to be conscripted in Russia for its regular army. On Thursday, the security committee of the upper house of Russia’s parliament pushed through a bill to raise the upper age limit to 30. FT
Turkey’s central bank sharply revised up its year-end inflation forecast to 58% from 22.3%. New Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan is trying to restore credibility among investors after years of wildly optimistic projections. The food inflation estimate also more than doubled to 61.5%. BBG
Another ECB rate hike seems almost certain today, taking the deposit rate to 3.75%, but — much like the Fed yesterday — the real focus is on what’s next. Clear signals for September are unlikely given the flood of data due before then. Instead, Christine Lagarde will want to maintain maximum flexibility when she speaks after the announcement. BBG
Barclays shares slump in London trading after the company reported earnings and warned of growing pressure in its UK retail bank while the investment bank missed Street expectations (the buyback was increased but this wasn’t enough to offset the lackluster results). RTRS
While the world’s attention has been focused on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, new Russian attacks against U.S. drones have made Syria a fraught arena for military competition between Moscow and Washington. WSJ
US consumers insulated from Fed tightening as most rates on personal/household debt are fixed at levels far below where they currently stand. WSJ
New capital rules may erase almost all of the $118 billion in excess capital Wall Street’s biggest banks squirreled away over the past decade, in a potential blow to shareholder buybacks. The Fed and FDIC will vote to propose the measures at separate meetings today. BBG
Federal regulators want to impose new guardrails on the way retail investment firms such as Robinhood Markets use advanced analytics to encourage customers to trade, the latest in a series of policy efforts prompted by the 2021 meme-stock craze. WSJ
US economic growth probably held up in the second quarter, showing sustained resilience in the face of Fed tightening. The economy is expected to have expanded by 1.8%, bolstered by a turn higher in business investment even as consumer spending cooled. Bloomberg Economics warned that expectations of weaker demand will weigh on factory production. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded higher in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting and press conference where the Fed delivered a widely expected 25bp rate hike and Powell kept the door open for a further increase although didn’t commit to any decision and stressed a data-dependent approach. ASX 200 was led by strength in real estate and tech, while participants also digested production updates. Nikkei 225 was initially hesitant amid a firmer currency and as the BoJ kick-started its 2-day policy meeting but eventually conformed to the rally. KOSPI gained with the spotlight on earnings including Samsung Electronics which topped estimates. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive with outperformance in Hong Kong despite the HKMA’s lockstep rate, as sentiment benefitted from recent support efforts and with the tech and auto industries lifted after China issued guidelines on the standardisation of intelligent connected vehicles and with regulators holding talks with major ride-hailing firms. Furthermore, XPeng shares surged over 30% in early trade after Volkswagen took about a 5% stake in the Co. and plans to jointly develop two electric models for the mid-size segment.
Top Asian News
Hong Kong Monetary Authority raised its base rate by 25bps to 5.75%, as expected.
BoK said it will strengthen the role of the standing lending facility as a liquidity backstop for financial institutions, while it will lower lending rates, accept more collateral and extend the maturity for loans taken out from its standing lending facility.
China’s National Financial Regulatory Admin. says people’s consumption ability is not sufficient and the willingness of consumption not strong.
European bourses are in the green, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.4%; with action a continuation of the APAC upside post-FOMC and heavily influenced by the numerous earnings reports. Sectors primarily firmer with Media leading after Relx & UMG, Tech names are a close second given bullish Samsung AI remarks. Conversely, Energy lags following TotalEnergies & Shell’s reports. Auto sector is mixed with Mercedes-Benz bid but Renault and Volkswagen pressured. Stateside, futures are firmer with the ES +0.6% though the NQ +1.3% outperforms following Meta’s after-hours report.
Top European News
UK Treasury advisors are reportedly worried the BoE risks overdoing in the inflation fight, according to Bloomberg; believe that rate hikes should slow
CBRT Report: Inflation forecasts revised upwards, exchange rate the main factor behind this. Click here for more detail.
FX
Buck bears pounce on dovish elements of FOMC statement and Powell presser after latest 25bp Fed rate hike, DXY sinks from 101.000 to 100.540.
Euro and Yen take advantage of Dollar demise ahead of ECB and BoJ, EUR/USD eyes expiries at 1.1150 and USD/JPY reverses through 140.00 where expiry interest also resides.
Aussie and Kiwi seize on Greenback weakness and benefit from bullish risk sentiment, AUD/USD tops 0.6800 and NZD/USD approaches 0.6275.
Franc, Pound and Loonie also up against US rival and latter underpinned by hawkish-sounding BoC minutes independently; USD/CHF closer to 0.8550 than 0.8600, Cable 1.3000 than 1.2900 and USD/CAD 1.3150 than 1.3200.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1265 vs exp. 7.1468 (prev. 7.1295)
Fixed Income
Bonds make more headway post-Fed before pullback as spotlight shifts to ECB and top tier US data.
Bunds towards base of 132.84-133.55 range, Gilts closer to 96.06 low than 96.81 high and T-note back below par between 112-07/111-26+ bounds.
BTPs digesting pretty well received Italian supply after peaking early at 116.42.
Commodities
WTI and Brent futures are firmer intraday, with the complex propped up by the broader risk appetite and softer Dollar in the aftermath of a dovish FOMC hike, whilst Chinese stimulus hopes keeps prices underpinned.
Spot gold benefits from the softer post-FOMC Dollar, with the index posting mild gains intraday thus far but ultimately above its 100 DMA (USD 1,965.89/oz) after meandering around the moving average earlier this week.
Base metals also benefit from the weaker Buck, but also see tailwinds from the broader risk appetite and ongoing hopes of Chinese stimulus.
Nigeria raised August Bonny Crude official selling price to a premium of USD 0.38/bbl vs dated Brent and raised Qua Iboe OSP to a premium of USD 0.75/bbl vs dated Brent, according to Reuters.
Russia expects to produce 515mln tons of oil this year, according to TASS.
Russia’s Government to consider lawmakers’ proposal of raising oil export duty, according to RIA. Elsewhere, Russian Energy Minister Shulginov says Russia is to supply 18-20mln tonnes of oil products to Africa this year, according to Tass.
Russian President Putin says we will be ready in the next 3-4 months to supply grain to Africa.
Geopolitics
North Korea said a Chinese official delivered a letter from President Xi to North Korean Leader Kim and Kim said the dispatch of the Chinese delegation shows Xi’s commitment to bilateral ties, while the official noted China is willing to contribute to regional peace and stability, as well as North Korea’s prosperity and development, according to KCNA.
North Korean leader Kim met with Russian Defence Minister Shoigu and they visited a missile and arms expo with senior government officials. Furthermore, North Korean and Russian defence chiefs held talks and their countries are to step up cooperation against gangster-like US hegemony, while the visit is to boost unity in the face of a common enemy and North Korea said it fully supports Russia’s battle to protect sovereignty and safety, according to KCNA.
French President Macron denounced “new imperialism” in the Pacific during a landmark visit to the region and warned of a threat to the sovereignty of smaller states, according to AFP News Agency.
Russia’s FSB says traces of explosives were detected at a vessel which was in transit from Turkey to Russia for grain shipment, via Ifx.
US Event Calendar
08:30: 2Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 1.8%, prior 2.0%
2Q GDP Price Index, est. 3.0%, prior 4.1%
2Q Personal Consumption, est. 1.2%, prior 4.2%
2Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 4.0%, prior 4.9%
08:30: July Initial Jobless Claims, est. 235,000, prior 228,000
July Continuing Claims, est. 1.75m, prior 1.75m
08:30: June Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.3%, prior 1.8%
June Durables Goods-Less Transportation, est. 0.1%, prior 0.7%
June Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
June Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.1%, prior 0.7%
08:30: June Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 0%
June Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.8%
08:30: June Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$92b, prior – $91.1b, revised -$91.9b
10:00: June Pending Home Sales YoY, est. -16.3%, prior -20.8%
June Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. -0.5%, prior -2.7%
11:00: July Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -10, prior -12
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
It’s fair to say that this was always going to be a holding hike for the Fed, and for markets, with limited new information likely to have been forthcoming or available. It’s hard to review the meeting and stray from that view. We have two payrolls and two CPI prints before the next FOMC and they, amongst other things, will determine whether there’s another hike in September and/or beyond.
After they hiked by 25bps as expected, the FOMC statement from July was almost verbatim compared to the June statement with the emphasis being put on upcoming data. Fed Chair Powell noted in his press conference that “looking ahead, we will continue to take a data-dependent approach in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate.” That should increase the risk premia around data releases as we go forward into late-summer/early-autumn, with the next FOMC meeting not until September 19-20. One change to the statement was the characterisation of current US growth, with the committee upgrading it from “modest” to “moderate”, and Powell said that the staff forecast no longer included a recession.
During Chair Powell’s press conference, he noted that while Fed officials “welcomed” the June CPI data, they want to see a string of softer prints and more signs that inflation is cooling across a variety of leading indicators. He also noted that a strong economy could lead to further inflation down the line, seeming to reiterate the need for growth to slow further. He also noted that lending conditions are tighter, so all eyes will be on the next senior loan officer survey that’s out early next week. The overall tone was one of cautious optimism, and there was an expectation that the labour market would continue to soften. On the topic of pausing hikes in September, Powell was noncommittal and noted the data could change substantially by then.
So data dependence over forward guidance at the moment. Looking forward, market pricing for a hike in September is now at 20% this morning, with a further 21% chance of a hike in November. So the market is pricing just under half a hike more this cycle, before a pivot towards rate cuts in H1 of next year. For more on the FOMC see our US Econ team’s recap here. They continue to see this as the last hike of the cycle in the face of faster disinflation and a weakening growth outlook.
In terms of the market reaction, the 3m T-bill closed at a post-2001 high of 5.42%, the last time policy rates were at this level. The US 2yr yield was up just over +3.0bps before the statement was released before reversing course and moving lower through the US afternoon to finish down -2.4bps at 4.85%. 10yr yields were just above unchanged at 2pm EST when the decision was announced before moving sharply lower on the statement (-5.7bps drop) and then moderating to finish -1.8bps lower on the day at 3.87%. Overnight they’ve fallen another -1.6bps to 3.85%. The dollar index was weaker on the day already, before finishing down -0.46% – its first weakening after six consecutive gains.
Equities were largely unchanged with a bias toward cyclicals. The S&P 500 (-0.02%) traded in a 0.75% range during Chair Powell’s press conference. The Dow Jones rose for a 13th session in a row (+0.23%), which is the longest run of consecutive gains since 1987, and the Russell 2000 rose +0.72%. Tech was an underperformer with the software and semiconductors S&P 500 industry groups down -2.5% and -1.4% respectively. However, media did rally +2.9%, driven primarily by Alphabet which rose +5.8% after stronger results reported the previous evening. After the bell, Meta (+1.4% yesterday and +6.8% in after-market trading) reported strong Q2 sales and increased guidance on greater engagement and cost controls. Against that background, stock futures tied to the S&P 500 (+0.33%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.71%) are pointing higher this morning.
With the Fed now out of the way, the ECB are next up today at 13:15 London time. They’re also widely expected to deliver a 25bp hike, which would take the deposit rate up to 3.75%. But once again, the big question will be what they signal about any further hikes after this one, since Governing Council members have sounded far less committed to any more hikes beyond July. In their preview for this meeting (link here), our European economists think that a further hike to 4% in September can’t be ruled out, but it’s a close call that will depend on data and events ahead of the next meeting in mid-September. As it happens, we’ll start to get some of that data from tomorrow, since the flash CPI prints for July from various countries are being released, ahead of the Euro Area-wide print on Monday. So that will be an important input to the decision.
European markets had already seen a decline ahead of the Fed’s decision, with the STOXX 600 (-0.53%) ending its run of 6 successive gains. That was echoed across the continent, with France’s CAC 40 (-1.35%) one of the biggest underperformers, although Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.85%) was the exception as it posted a solid gain. Yields on 10yr bunds (+6.0bps), OATs (+6.1bps) and BTPs (+4.3bps) all rose on the day, having closed before the subsequent rally in US treasuries.
Speaking of Europe, our research colleagues on the German economics team have published a substantial update this week on how the German economy is doing at mid-year, both from a cyclical and structural perspective. It introduces their new Nowcast model for German GDP, and takes a look at the political situation as the traffic-light coalition nears its midterm point. Here’s the link to the report.
In Asia, equity markets are trading higher this morning after the Fed. The Hang Seng (+1.36%) is leading the gains, but the KOSPI (+0.72%), the Nikkei (+0.69%), the CSI 300 (+0.54%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.44%) have all moved higher as well. Overnight, we’ve also seen the US dollar index continue to weaken, with another -0.07% move lower, whilst the Japanese Yen (+0.28%) has strengthened for a 4th consecutive day against the dollar ahead of tomorrow’s BoJ decision, and is now trading beneath 140 per dollar.
Finally on the data side, US new home sales fell in June for the first time in 4 months, coming in at an annualised rate of 697k (vs. 725k expected). Separately, money supply growth continued to slow in the Euro Area, with growth in M3 down to just +0.6% year-on-year (vs. +0.9% expected), marking its slowest rate since July 2010. Our European economists see the latest data as consistent with forceful but orderly pass through of ECB tightening. See their note yesterday here for more.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the ECB’s latest policy decision and President Lagarde’s press conference. Otherwise, data releases from the US include the first estimate of Q2 GDP, preliminary durable goods orders for June, and the weekly initial jobless claims. Finally, earnings releases include Mastercard, McDonald’s, Intel and Ford.23
MORE
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
EUROPE
Powell’s presser perceived dovish, futures bolstered with NQ leading post-META – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
THURSDAY, JUL 27, 2023 – 01:36 AM
The Fed hiked rates by 25bps to 5.25%-5.50%, as expected, with the statement a copy & paste job from June.
Markets initially perceived the presser as dovish after Powell avoided committing to future rate hikes and stressed a data-dependent approach.
US equity futures edged higher overnight with NQ boosted by Meta shares post-earnings, APAC stocks were also firmer.
European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5% after the cash market closed down by 1.0% yesterday.
DXY slipped below 101, EUR/USD eyes 1.11 ahead of ECB, USD/JPY oscillates around 140 and antipodeans lead the majors.
Looking ahead, highlights include German Gfk, US Durable Goods, PCE Prices Advance, IJC, GDP Advance, ECB Policy Announcement and Press Conference with Lagarde, Supply from Italy & US.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks finished mixed after whipsawing as markets focused on the FOMC and Powell’s press conference in which the Fed hiked rates by 25bps to 5.25%-5.50%, as expected, with the statement a copy & paste job from June, albeit with the acknowledgement that activity grew at a moderate pace (prev. modest). The statement and rate decision sparked little reaction but the press conference saw two-way movements as markets initially perceived the presser as dovish after Powell avoided committing to future rate hikes and stressed a data-dependent approach, although noted that they are prepared to hike if the data deems it necessary. US indices were initially boosted but eventually unwound the gains as Powell repeated the June SEPs that the FOMC does not see inflation returning to the 2% target by 2025 (with those forecasts incorporating one more rate hike ahead based on the dot plots in June).
SPX -0.02% at 4,566, NDX -0.40% at 15,499, DJIA +0.23% at 35,520, RUT +0.72% at 1,980.
Fed hiked the FFR by 25bps to 5.25-5.50%, while there were no major changes to July FOMC statement compared with the June FOMC in which it retained the language that in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. However, one slight adjustment was the description of economic activity which it stated has been expanding at a “moderate” pace vs a “modest” pace in the June statement. Furthermore, it reiterated job gains have been robust and the unemployment rate remains low, while it also retained the language that inflation remains elevated and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.
Fed Chair Powell said at the press conference that growth in consumer spending has slowed from earlier in the year but there is still a strong pace of job growth and the labour market remains very tight. Powell also stated that the FOMC is to take a data-dependent approach on future hikes and getting back to 2% inflation has a long way to go.
Fed Chair Powell said during the Q&A that they haven’t made a decision to go every other meeting and haven’t made any decisions about future meetings, while June CPI was welcomed but was only one month’s report. He also stated it is possible the Fed could hike again in September if data warrants it and that stronger growth over time could add to inflation and may require a policy response. Powell said they need to see inflation “durably down” and want to see core inflation coming down, which is still pretty elevated, while he noted it is a good thing that headline inflation has come down so much which will strengthen public perception of inflation coming down. Furthermore, Fed Chair Powell said a more gradual pace does not automatically go to every other meeting which they do not want to do and said staff are no longer forecasting a recession, while he added that hiking until they get to 2% is a formula for going past the target and if they see inflation coming down credibly, they can move down to a neutral level and then below neutral at some point.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
US Senate Majority Leader Schumer said he is worried Republicans are steering towards a government shutdown over FY24 spending bills.
CBO revised 2023 US real GDP growth forecast to 0.9% (prev. 0.1% in Feb) due to first-half labour market strength and now projects 2023 average US unemployment rate at 3.7% (prev. 4.7%).
AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS
eBay Inc (EBAY) Q2 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.03 (exp. 0.99), Revenue 2.54bln (exp. 2.51bln); Gross merchandise volume fell 1.9% Y/Y to 18.2bln (exp. 18.4bln), Active buyers fell 4.3% Y/Y to 132.0mln (exp. 132.9mln).Shares were lower by 4.3% in after-hours trade.
APAC stocks traded higher in the aftermath of the FOMC meeting and press conference where the Fed delivered a widely expected 25bp rate hike and Powell kept the door open for a further increase although didn’t commit to any decision and stressed a data-dependent approach.
ASX 200 was led by strength in real estate and tech, while participants also digested production updates.
Nikkei 225 was initially hesitant amid a firmer currency and as the BoJ kick-started its 2-day policy meeting but eventually conformed to the rally.
KOSPI gained with the spotlight on earnings including Samsung Electronics which topped estimates.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive with outperformance in Hong Kong despite the HKMA’s lockstep rate, as sentiment benefitted from recent support efforts and with the tech and auto industries lifted after China issued guidelines on the standardisation of intelligent connected vehicles and with regulators holding talks with major ride-hailing firms. Furthermore, XPeng shares surged over 30% in early trade after Volkswagen took about a 5% stake in the Co. and plans to jointly develop two electric models for the mid-size segment.
US equity futures edged higher overnight as the risk appetite across Asia-Pac brightened.
European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5% after the cash market closed down by 1.0% yesterday.
FX
DXY remained pressured post-FOMC and retreated below the 101.00 level as Asia-Pac markets took their opportunity to react to the comments from Fed Chair Powell who refused to commit to any future decision on rates and acknowledged that they could hike again in September if the data warrants it but repeated his data dependency.
EUR/USD benefitted from the dollar selling and just about reclaimed the 1.1100 handle albeit with the upside capped heading into the ECB rate decision.
GBP/USD continued on its gradual ascent with a further boost seen in the aftermath of the FOMC.
USD/JPY breached through support at the 140.00 level to the downside with USD/JPY overnight implied volatility at multi-month highs ahead of tomorrow’s BoJ policy announcement.
Antipodeans took a swipe at the dollar alongside the positive risk appetite and strengthening yuan.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1265 vs exp. 7.1468 (prev. 7.1295)
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures were choppy and yields were flat overnight after the post-FOMC bull steepening.
Bund futures bounced back from the prior day’s lows as the attention shifts to the ECB meeting.
10yr JGB futures partially nursed losses but with the rebound capped by a weaker 2yr auction and ahead of the BoJ policy decision.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures rallied overnight as the risk appetite in Asia improved and the greenback retreated.
Nigeria raised August Bonny Crude official selling price to a premium of USD 0.38/bbl vs dated Brent and raised Qua Iboe OSP to a premium of USD 0.75/bbl vs dated Brent, according to Reuters.
Russia expects to produce 515mln tons of oil this year, according to TASS
Spot Gold held on to its post-FOMC advances after Powell’s reluctance to commit to future hikes.
Copper futures were firmer owing to the dollar weakness and ongoing China stimulus hopes.
Chile’s Cochilco sees average copper prices at USD 3.85/lb in 2023 (prev. forecast of USD 3.90/lb).
CRYPTO
Bitcoin eked mild gains overnight but remained beneath the USD 29,500 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Hong Kong Monetary Authority raised its base rate by 25bps to 5.75%, as expected.
US Pentagon is seeking supply of chip minerals after China export curbs and a contract is planned to draw Gallium from “existing waste streams”, according to Bloomberg.
BoK said it will strengthen the role of the standing lending facility as a liquidity backstop for financial institutions, while it will lower lending rates, accept more collateral and extend the maturity for loans taken out from its standing lending facility.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Industrial Profits YY (Jun) -8.3% (Prev. -12.6%)
Chinese Industrial Profits YTD (Jun) -16.8% (Prev. -18.8%)
Australian Export Prices (Q2) -8.5% (Prev. 1.6%)
Australian Import Prices (Q2) -0.8% (Prev. -4.2%)
GEOPOLITICS
North Korea said a Chinese official delivered a letter from President Xi to North Korean Leader Kim and Kim said the dispatch of the Chinese delegation shows Xi’s commitment to bilateral ties, while the official noted China is willing to contribute to regional peace and stability, as well as North Korea’s prosperity and development, according to KCNA.
North Korean leader Kim met with Russian Defence Minister Shoigu and they visited a missile and arms expo with senior government officials. Furthermore, North Korean and Russian defence chiefs held talks and their countries are to step up cooperation against gangster-like US hegemony, while the visit is to boost unity in the face of a common enemy and North Korea said it fully supports Russia’s battle to protect sovereignty and safety, according to KCNA.
French President Macron denounced “new imperialism” in the Pacific during a landmark visit to the region and warned of a threat to the sovereignty of smaller states, according to AFP News Agency.
UK/EU
NOTABLE HEADLINES
UK’s Unite said the weekend Gatwick strike was called off as it secured double-digit pay rises at two more firms.
UK Treasury advisors are reportedly worried the BoE risks overdoing in the inflation fight, according to Bloomberg; believe that rate hikes should slow
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.36 PTS OR 0.20% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 273.97 PTS OR 1.41% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 222.82 PTS OR 0.68% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.72 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.1475 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.1534 /Oil UP TO 79.65 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 83.70 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
////SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA/RUSSIA
Russia, NORTH Korea Hold Rare Defense Talks In Pyongyang Amid Soaring US Tensions
WEDNESDAY, JUL 26, 2023 – 10:00 PM
Russia has held high-level defense talks with North Korea at a moment Pyongyang is conducing a series of ballistic missile tests aimed at warning the United States while it docks a nuclear-armed submarine at a South Korean port. Threats and even nuclear warnings have been on the rise on the peninsula, also after several provocative joint US-South Korea military drills,
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu led the talks with his North Korean counterpart, Kang Sun-nam, in the capital on Wednesday, a defense ministry statement confirmed, pledging a deepened ‘partnership’.
Shoigu declared of “friendly” relations that bilateral relations would be improved in all fields. “I am confident that today’s talks will contribute to strengthening cooperation between our defense ministries,” he said.
“Visits of warships, official visits of high-ranking defense officials, exchanges of working-level delegations, and personnel training have all contributed to maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula,” Shoigu added.
“I am glad to make your acquaintance and meet with you. I happily accepted your invitation to visit Pyongyang, the capital of a friendly state. I am grateful to my Korean friends for the rich program you have offered. From the very first minute, I felt your care and attention. I hope we will manage not only to work actively, but also to learn a lot of interesting things about North Korea, your culture and traditions, and see the sights,” the ministry quoted Shoigu as introducing the talks.
The Russian delegation will be in attendance Pyongyang’s celebrations of the 70th anniversary of the end of the Korean War, featuring a huge military parade and display of advanced missiles.
A Russian delegation or officials have not visited North Korea since the pandemic, when the already very isolated country completely shut off its borders in order to prevent spread. There’s some speculation currently that the north may have changed its policies, given the Russian defense ministry’s visit this week.
This appears to be the case, also given China is sending a delegation of officials to observe the commemoration events:
Russia and China are sending government delegations to North Korea this week for events marking the 70th anniversary of the armistice that halted fighting in the 1950-53 Korean War.
The visits suggest North Korea is further opening up after years of pandemic isolation and is eager to showcase its partnerships with authoritarian neighbors in the face of deepening nuclear tensions with Washington, Seoul and Tokyo.
Washington has over the course of the Ukraine conflict at various points accused North Korea of supplying the Russian military with additional artillery ammo. The two countries actually share a small border. More recently, there have been accusations that Wagner Group, which is now on the outs with Moscow in the wake of last month’s mutiny, purchased large quantities of arms and equipment from the Kim Jong-Un government.
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
END
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
EU/ECB
As expected hikes 25 basis points and it looks like they are done!
(zerohedge)
ECB Hikes 25bps As Expected, Future Decisions To Ensure “Rates Are Sufficiently Restrictive”
THURSDAY, JUL 27, 2023 – 08:27 AM
The ECB has hiked its three key interest rates by 25 basis points (the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75% respectively) all of which was expected; the ECB reiterated that future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates “will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels” for as long as necessary to achieve a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target.
More importantly, in its statement the ECB said this about its future actions:
The Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary to achieve a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target.
The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction.
In particular, its interest rate decisions will continue to be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
Here, traders noted a small language tweak: the statement now says “decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary to achieve a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target” (previously it said it would be brought to sufficiently restrictive)
Some other highlights from the statement, first on PEPP: the ECB reiterates PEPP reinvestments of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the programme until at least the end of 2024.
As for Inflation, the ECB said it continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long:
The rate increase today reflects the Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
The developments since the last meeting support the expectation that inflation will drop further over the remainder of the year but will stay above target for an extended period.
While some measures show signs of easing, underlying inflation remains high overall. The past rate increases continue to be transmitted forcefully: financing conditions have tightened again and are increasingly dampening demand, which is an important factor in bringing inflation back to target.
The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. It therefore today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points.
The Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary to achieve a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target.
Full statement here, and here is a redline comparison to the previous statement.
In kneejerk reaction, the EURUSD dropped back near session lows after the ECB said that inflation will drop lower, but the move was contained and merely reversed an earlier gain.
END
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE//USA
The Ukraine counteroffensive is in shambles. Thus the secret USA- Russia talks
(zerohedge)
Details Of Secret US-Russia Talks Revealed As Ukraine Counteroffensive In Bad Shape
WEDNESDAY, JUL 26, 2023 – 08:40 PM
New details have been revealed Wednesday related to the Ukraine war, at a moment the West is beginning to admit Ukraine’s counteroffensive is failing, despite billions of foreign military hardware (and counting) shipped to Kiev thus far.
“Secret diplomatic talks are ongoing between former senior U.S. national security officials and high-ranking members of the Kremlin, a U.S. official directly involved in the talks has confirmed to The Moscow Times,” the Amsterdam-based publication reports.
While NBC earlier this month first reported on the back-channel discussions described as “discrete” exchanges with top Kremlin officials, Moscow Times interviewed an unnamed US official involved, shedding light on what’s dubbed “track 1.5 diplomacy”.
The ongoing meetings have involved Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov representing Moscow, detailed as follows:
Known as track 1.5 diplomacy, these covert discussions enable both sides to understand each other’s red lines and mitigate potential conflicts, serving as a crucial link between official government negotiations (track 1 diplomacy) and unofficial expert dialogues (track 2).
“There is an eminent need for track 1.5 diplomacy when the world gets closed off as it has now,” the US official who is directly involved in the talks said, further confirming twice-a-month meetings, but which are sometimes done remotely online.
“I have been visiting Moscow at least every three months,” the diplomat told Moscow Times. After in the opening months of the war direct attempts at Russia-Ukraine negotiations collapsed, reportedly thwarted by the US and UK at a moment there was a guiding belief that Ukraine could push back the invasion, US-Russia communications deteriorated to the point of becoming almost non-existent.
However, there was a focus on exchanges of prisoners, as the case of Brittney Griner and Viktor Bout demonstrated.
“We were given some access to the Kremlin’s thinking, though not as much as we would have liked.”
From his vantage point, sitting across from senior Kremlin officials and advisers, it was apparent that the greatest issue was that the Russians were unable to articulate what exactly they wanted and needed.
“They don’t know how to define victory or defeat. In fact, some of the elites to whom we spoke had never wanted the war in the first place, even saying it had been a complete mistake,” said the official.
“But now they’re at war — suffering a humiliating defeat is not an option for these guys.”
“It was here that we made clear that the U.S. was prepared to work constructively with Russian national security concerns,” the official added, breaking from the official U.S. line of squeezing Russia financially and isolating it internationally so as to prevent it from continuing its war against Ukraine.
“An attempt to isolate and cripple Russia to the point of humiliation or collapse would make negotiating almost impossible — we are already seeing this in the reticence from Moscow officials,” he said.
“In fact, we emphasized that the U.S. needs, and will continue to need, a strong enough Russia to create stability along its periphery. The U.S. wants a Russia with strategic autonomy in order for the U.S. to advance diplomatic opportunities in Central Asia. We in the U.S. have to recognize that total victory in Europe could harm our interests in other areas of the world.
“Russian power,” the official concluded, “is not necessarily a bad thing.”
Still, the top levels of White House leadership, including President Biden himself, have only presented a stance of wanting to bolster and arm Kiev “for as long as it takes” — but it remains likely that the more that Ukrainian forces are against the ropes, the scenario could emerge of a greater ‘openness’ to serious negotiated settlement among Western officials.
end
this is a big story! Another nail in the coffin of the uSA dollar hegemony
Fwd: GRAINS TO AFRICAN NATIONS:
Robert Hryniak
3:28 PM (29 minutes ago)
to
It was announced at the Russia Africa summit by Putin that in the next 3 to 4 months Russia will be ready and able to supply Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali . Somalia, Central African republic in 3-4 months with 25 to 50,000 tons of grain each, ensuring free delivery.
Think about the commodity companies losing that market. Let alone friends made. Compared to what little grain comes from the West with payment demands in dollars. And let’s not forget this grain is GMO free as Russia banned GMO’s in their food.
> > https://youtu.be/4SePJpa9mys > > > Hegemony while produced by might and money is not solely dependent on same for dominance. Having the ability to lead with a moral standard above others coupled with generosity and assistance to allow personal aspirations to be realized by one’s own hand is far greater. While the West controlled by Neocons leads without a moral compass for all to see. Compare the actions of Russia vs that of America who threatens with every breath. Even thought neither Vlad or XI is without skeletons in their closet, the sheer corruption of Biden and company knows no bounds. So is it a wonder that given the Russian and Chinese stance of defiance to Western dominance that others find this duo so appealing?
> It maybe in time, that the duo is not better a leader, however for now the run from dollar dominance is growing to soon be a torrent.
> America desperately needs to shake off the parasites feeding upon its body and soul to rediscover what America was to chart a new chapter. Because the pages of time are fast turning and the end of the book will come. America is no longer the sole author of its’ future but relies now on others to contribute to the story not yet written.
Blood Commodities: BlackRock’s Role in the Ukraine Carnage
This is what happens when modern day pirates rule.
The days where intelligence and creativity mattered to make money has become a simole matter of plunder for profit. This benefits no one in the long run because endless money creation unsupported dismisses the value of labor to the point where the only labor that pays is thievery. This is what has happened to the Ukrainians where everything is for sale from children to fetus to body parts to guns to money laundering. The blood of soldiers is but a cost item to be rendered. It is so bad that field commanders do not report manpower losses to collect their pay for themselves. This is why battlefield carnage is irrelevant.
Blood Commodities: BlackRock’s Role in the Ukraine Carnage
Ukraine has become a symbol for all those who understand the war; there is money for blood. And there has been no negotiation to end hostilities because the money is and will continue to flow by the tanker load. Let’s briefly examine who stands to gain from the death of hundreds of thousands.
BlackRock and JPMorgan top a list of banking pirates raking in profits because of the shifted economics of the Ukraine conflict. Prices for commodities tied to Ukraine and Russia are making investors in these and other firms ecstatic. However, real profit is on the horizon when government and public sector investments in the war-torn country have soaked up all the financial losses. Financial Times writer Brooke Masters says BlackRock, JPMorgan, and others will step in and take a privileged deal based on their “donation” of advising services. This is how Masters framed the current situation:
“No formal fundraising target has been set, but people familiar with the discussions say the fund seeks to raise low-cost capital from governments, donors, and international financial institutions and leverage it to attract between five and 10 times as much private investment.”
JPMorgan already has Ukraine as a client since 2010 over raising monies to alleviate the country’s previous debt. BlackRock, which currently has $9.4 trillion in assets under management (AUM), makes a killing across every market in the world. A big chunk of BlackRock’s earnings comes from investments in things like Mexico’s local debt.
Modern Diplomacy recently reported that more than 500 global businesses from 42 countries have signed the Ukraine Business Compact. This group stands in the wings, waiting to take possession of or make huge profits on construction, materials, agricultural processing, and logistics. For those unfamiliar, Ukraine is the world’s top producer of sunflower meal, oil, and seed and one of the biggest exporters of corn and wheat. Since Zelensky repealed a law on selling agricultural land in Ukraine, U.S. and Western European agribusinesses are buying millions of hectares of Ukraine’s farmland. According to the reports from the IMF, ten private companies control most of it.
Let’s summarize a scenario where BlackRock and others of Zelensky’s backers work to ensure their profits. So, Russian President Vladimir Putin was considering discontinuing the grain corridor from Ukraine through the Black Sea. Eyeballing staggering market changes, Larry Fink of Blackrock gets on the horn and calls his puppet in the White House. To make damn sure Putin has no choice but to nix the deal, the U.S. and the Brits orchestrate blowing up the Kerch Bridge again. Only this time, much more effectively using either advanced sea drones (or U.S. Navy SEAL divers on leave from Little Creek, Virginia). Boom! Bread prices in Germany and the rest of the EU jump, but the U.S. State Department and the new European Nazis holler, “Putin is starving Africa!”
Fortunately, most of us know the grain goes to the EU first and to starving people in Africa last. Meanwhile, Egypt bought 600,000 tons of Russian grain in May, and its ministers say, “Russia’s withdrawal from the grain agreement will not have a major impact on the market.”
Blackrock, Cargill, Monsanto, and others make more money (see 2014 report), the devastating Kremlin reprisal will destroy more infrastructure for loans to rebuild, and the blood continues to be the chief exchange medium for Larry Fink (see his donations to Zelensky visitor Lisa Murkowski and others) and the other finks in the West.
Phil Butler, is a policy investigator and analyst, a political scientist and expert on Eastern Europe, he’s an author of the recent bestseller “Putin’s Praetorians” and other books. He writes exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
end
GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES
Dr. Peter McCullough on LeBron James Son’s Cardiac Arrest and the Potential Role of Spike Protein
BY THE WELLNESS COMPANY
The world was shocked this week, when Bronny James, the son of NBA superstar LeBron James, suffered a cardiac arrest during a basketball workout at the University of Southern California. The 18-year old basketball prodigy is out of ICU and said to be in stable condition.
The cardiac arrest incident with James is just the latest in a slew of cardiac incidents that have hit young athletes, raising questions about the role of the COVID-19 vaccine and spike protein in these incidents.
Dr. Peter McCullough is not only America’s leading cardiologist but he is also our nation’s leading COVID-19 expert and one of the most outspoken critics of the risks of the experimental COVID-19 vaccines.
Now Dr. McCullough is speaking out after the latest incident involving Bronny James.
McCullough writes,
We are seeing a wide range of vaccine associated collapses among on screen reporters, athletes, and many others that can be caused by POTS (postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome) which has a benign prognosis all the way to myocarditis and ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation which can be fatal. Details regarding the COVID-19 vaccine taken, when the doses were administered, the initial cardiac rhythm at the time of collapse followed by cardiac testing including ECG, blood tests, and MRI are all needed to ascertain the prognosis.
McCullough further points out:
Bronny James’ 18-year-old USC teammate Vince Iwuchukwu collapsed on the court during a summer 2022 workout at the Galen Center. USC, who mandated COVID-19 vaccines for students, had training staff rush to shock his heart into normal rhythm and he later received an ICD and returned to playing.
Now Bronny James himself, who attended Sierra Canyon high school where strict COVID-vaccine mandates were enforced, was reported to have a cardiac arrest and prompt recovery. LeBron James himself indicated that he and his family after doing their research were fully COVID-19 vaccinated. This was about three months after the US FDA put out myocarditis warnings on mRNA vaccines.
In reviewing data from South Korea and other countries, regarding rates of myocarditis in vaccinated individuals earlier this year, McCullough made it clear what an absolute disaster the COVID-19 vaccine protocols were:
COVID-19 vaccines should have never been administered to young persons without risks of serious respiratory illness. These outcomes confirm COVID-19 vaccine induced myocarditis is leading to death among young persons who unfortunately took one or more injection. Research on myocarditis risk stratification and mitigation is urgently needed.
The good news is that there is something that you can do to protect yourself and your family from the side effects of the COVID-19 shots:
From Dr. McCullough:
“Far and away the most common question I get from those who took one of the COVID-19 vaccines is: “how do I get this out of my body.” The mRNA and adenoviral DNA products were rolled out with no idea on how or when the body would ever breakdown the genetic code. The synthetic mRNA carried on lipid nanoparticles appears to be resistant to breakdown by human ribonucleases by design so the product would be long-lasting and produce the protein product of interest for a considerable time period… it is a big problem when the protein is the pathogenic SARS-CoV-2 Spike.”
“Nattokinase is an enzyme is produced by fermenting soybeans with bacteria Bacillus subtilis var. natto and has been available as an oral supplement. It degrades fibrinogen, factor VII, cytokines, and factor VIII and has been studied for its cardiovascular benefits. Out of all the available therapies I have used in my practice and among all the proposed detoxification agents, I believe nattokinase and related peptides hold the greatest promise for patients at this time.”
“I lost my sense of smell and had other mild sensory problems after being sick in mid-2022. On top of that, I was also worried about shedding from family members as well as coming down with additional variants. I saw Dr. McCullough talk about the product and decided to give it a try. A month and a half later, I feel sooo much better. I also have recommended the product to family members to help them detox from the painful side effects of the vaccine. Would recommend this to everyone in our post-pandemic world. There’s zero downside in giving it a try.”
“I have suffered from long covid for over a year. I’ve been taking this for product for 30 days. I feel so much better. Wished I had found this earlier. Just received my 2nd order.”
“Evidently my hub and I both had covid sometime in the last few years, but didn’t know it. We are both in our mid sixties. Lately, we’d had zero energy, GI issues, and most recently for myself, heart fluttering. We’ve been taking Spike Support now for only about 10 days, and the change is REMARKABLE. I credit Spike Support completely, because I can tell when my next dose is due. The components are all tremendous in so many ways, and it’s sure nice to feel great every day again. THANK YOU TWC, for giving us our lives back! And thank YOU, Dr. McCullough for standing up and speaking out, and starting this recovery for so many folks!”
innate immune system (in young children) by vaccine induced ‘high-affinity’ antibodies, specific for target antigen; innate antibodies in children can fail to train NK cells, thus risk for auto-immune
cheated death & good for him, so did Damar Hamlin and Jamie Foxx; LeBron James basically said his family got the shots, I assume he meant Bronny too; it is likely vaccine-induced myocarditis (similar)
UPDATE: Lebron James Worried About 18-Year-Old Son Bronny After Heart Attack – Doctors Warn This Could End His CareerRead more…Americans Will Soon Be Required To Pay For A Visa For European TravelRead more…Jordan Tells Mayorkas to Come Prepared Ahead of Congressional TestimonyRead more…Trump Makes Appeal to Unions Emboldened Under Biden AdministrationRead more…REPORT: DeSantis Campaign Fires One-Third Of Its Staff Amid Crashing NumbersRead more…After Bud Light Tries to Celebrate NFL Opening Day – Average Americans Make Them PayRead more…Elon Musk Warns Moviegoers about Woke ‘Barbie’ Movie: ‘You Will Pass Out before It Ends’Read more…Jesse Watters Crushes Competition In 1st Week, Beats CNN And MSNBC Combined In New Time SlotRead more…
NEWS ADDICTS
VACCINE IMPACT/
end
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
End Of The Line?
THURSDAY, JUL 27, 2023 – 03:40 PM
By Bas can Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank
The Fed’s decision to hike by 25 basis points was unanimous and widely expected. Initially, equity markets rallied on the news, as the FOMC statement was largely unchanged. However, that move retraced during the press conference, leaving the S&P 500 virtually unchanged on the day.
The only change of note in the statement was a slightly more upbeat assessment of the economy, with the text now reading that “economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace”, replacing the earlier assessment of “modest” growth. Yet, the FOMC clearly remains in data-watch mode. As such, Powell kept his options open for September. At the press conference the chairman reiterated that the June and July decision do not establish a pattern: the communicated “gradual pace” does not necessarily mean that the Fed will only hike every other meeting; hiking two out of three meetings could also be considered gradual in his view. In other words, a hike in September would still be possible if the data require the FOMC to act.
With that, Powell has raised the upside risks to our baseline view that the Fed is effectively done hiking after yesterday. As Philip Marey, our US strategist, explained prior to the decision, we expect a rebound in headline CPI inflation in the coming months due to base effects, but by contrast we expect a gradual decline in core inflation – though core inflation will probably remain elevated for the remainder of the year.
At the same time, we think it is premature to declare a soft landing, and we could still see the US economy slip into recession in the second half of the year. However, the US policymakers do not anticipate a recession, and Powell said yesterday that the Fed’s staff no longer anticipates one either. So the FOMC may decide to skip September, in favor of hiking in November. In that scenario, we believe that this hike could be thwarted by the deteriorating economic outlook.
Obviously, our forecast for the Fed funds rate is data-dependent. And because in real terms monetary policy has only recently become restrictive, we are sympathetic to more rate hikes. Disappointing data on core inflation could still convince the Fed to go ahead in September. However, because of the “more moderate pace” of monetary tightening we doubt if additional hikes will materialize.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
Oil Jumps Over $80 Ahead Of Looming 2 Million Bpd Q3 Deficit
THURSDAY, JUL 27, 2023 – 11:59 AM
Having been crushed for much of 2023, and left for dead by momentum chasers, oil has staged a long-overdue rebound from the YTD lows in the mid-60s in late June, rising almost 20% to a three month high of $80 earlier today, and back over the 200DMA, something it hadn’t done since August of 2022.
And while there are numerous reasons for oil’s sharp bounce (which will flow through into headline CPI next month, slamming the brakes on any hope that the Fed will reverse its tightening posture soon) including expectations of Chinese stimulus, near record low futures positioning…
… the most recent bullish thesis is that as a result of the recent sharp cut in OPEC+ production which is only now starting to emerge (especially when it comes to Russian output), oil markets are set for large supply deficits over the next two months as a seasonal increase in demand combines with producer output restraint.
One proponent of this theory is long-running commodities bull Goldman Sachs whose chief commodity strategist Daan Struyven told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” that the bank expects record demand in oil markets to send deficits soaring and drive crude prices higher in the near term.
“We expect pretty sizable deficits in the second half with deficits of almost 2 million barrels per day in the third quarter as demand reaches an all-time high” Struyven said and added that the bank forecasts Brent crude to rise from just above $80 per barrel on Monday to $86 per barrel by year-end. It’s already at $84 and rising fast.
While Struyven acknowledged that U.S. crude output has risen significantly over the past year to 12.7 million barrels per day, he said that pace of growth will slow throughout the rest of 2023.
“We expect U.S. crude supply growth to slow down pretty significantly to a sequential pace of just 200 barrels per day from here,” he said, pointing to the recent steep drop in rig counts which is down 15% from its 2022 peak; last week, Baker Hughes reported US oil rigs fell by 7 to 530 the lowest since March 2022.
Struyven also suggested that the lack of an agreement following the G20 energy ministers’ meeting indicates “very substantial” uncertainty about long-run oil demand.
Elsewhere, the G-20 energy ministers met in India over the weekend, but left without reaching a consensus on the phasing down of fossil fuels, complicating the transition toward clean energy.
“Key point here for investors is, with the uncertainty about oil demand being so elevated, investors may require a premium to compensate for the for the elevated risk from such elevated demand uncertainty,” Struyven said.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency in June predicted that global oil demand is on track to rise by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2023, outpacing the previous year’s 2.3 million barrel per day increase, and on pace to hit another record high. Over the weekend, secretary general of the International Energy Forum Joseph McMonigle had forecast that both India and China will make up 2 million barrels a day of demand pick-up in the second half of 2023, a number which will only rise if and when China is forced to inject another major stimulus to boost its flagging economy.
Echoing Goldman’s view are Standard Chartered analysts Emily Ashford and Paul Horsnell, who recently said that “supply deficits over the next two months are likely to be so visible and large as to allow the market to move above” $85/bbl in the third quarter” (considering Brent is at $84 as we type, this prediction will certainly come true).
According to Ashford’s calculation, shortfalls of 1m b/d in June and July will balloon to 2.8m b/d in August and 2.4m b/d in September. “The point when significantly tighter fundamentals should show clearly is now imminent.”
They also noted that while producer cuts have mostly driven market tightening so far, demand will play key role over the next two months.
Then today UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo also joined the bandwagon, writing that the deficit in global oil markets is set to be ~2m b/d in July and August compared with 0.7m b/d in June, adding that if Saudis extend voluntary cuts, September’s deficit could be more than 1.5m b/d. Same as the abovementioned analysts, UBS expects demand growth to be driven by Asia, mainly China and India, while Brazil and Middle East also remain solid.
Finally, technicals are also supportive, with a break above the 200-day moving average, momentum traders switching from short to long trades, and covering of elevated short futures and options positions.
The bottom line is that while average Brent price forecasts remain unchanged at $88/bbl for 3Q and $93/bbl for 4Q, as energy analysts have been burned way too many times this year predicting a jump, it is almost certain that the next big move in the price of oil will be (much) higher, and already the sharp increase – and near bull market – in prices is a belated market acknowledgment of the significant tightening, and imminent deficit, in crude balances.
More in Goldman’s note available to pro subs in the usual place.
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
SOUTH AFRICA/RUSSIA
This is major: Russia seeks to work with Africa to weaken the dollar.
(zerohedge)
Russia Seeks To Work With Africa To Weaken Dollar As Putin Hosts Summit
THURSDAY, JUL 27, 2023 – 06:55 AM
Talk of de-dollarization has long been in the air, particularly in the lead-up to BRICS nations gathering in South Africa in August, with the question high on the agenda.
Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova on Wednesday issued a direct, provocative challenge to Washington and its dollar dominance, asserting that Moscow will work with African leaders to weaken the US dollar.
Zakharova, per remarks cited in RIA Novosti, denounced the United States’ using it as a tool for global hegemony, and as “a means of realizing its aggression.” The foreign ministry comments came just ahead of the high-level summit of African leaders set to be held in St. Petersburg at the end of this week.
African leaders have begun arriving in Russia Wednesday for what is the second Russia-Africa summit since 2019, set to kick off Thursday and go through Friday.
Proposals for ending the Ukraine conflict will be discussed, but also alternatives in the wake of the collapse of the UN-backed Black Sea Initiative grain deal.
While President Putin is also hosting individual meetings with key head of states such as the Ethiopian and Egyptian leaders, there’s a degree of disappointment given the low attendance this year, clearly a result of the Ukraine crisis and the West’s pressure campaign and sanctions against Moscow.
The Associated Pressnoted that “the number of heads of states attending shrank from 43 then to 17 now because of what the Kremlin described as a crude Western pressure to discourage African nations from attending it.”
In light of this, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has highlighted “unconcealed brazen interference by the U.S., France and other states through their diplomatic missions in African countries, and attempts to put pressure on the leadership of these countries in order to prevent their active participation in the forum.”
“It’s absolutely outrageous, but it will in no way prevent the success of the summit,” Peskov told reporters.
However, many more countries will be represented even if not through their heads of state, with the Kremlin underscoring that 32 other African countries will send senior government officials or their ambassador for the major summit, which Putin will oversee.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1125 UP 0.0047
USA/ YEN 140.21 DOWN 0.201 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .50% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2955 UP 0.0028
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3172 down .0032 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 32 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 6.36 PTS OR 0.20%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 273.97 PTS OR 1.41%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .72 % // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG UP 273.97 PTS OR 1.41%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.36 PTS OR 0.20%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.72%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 222.82 PTS OR 0.68%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1977.10
silver:$25.10
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 100.61 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.1742
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1762)
TURKISH LIRA: 26.94 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.441…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 10 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.9444% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.002 UP 10 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 26.62 points or 0.34%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 272,46 PTS OR 1.69%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 159.96 PTS OR 2.19%
Spain IBEX UP 102.90 PTS OR 1.09%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 615.42 PTS OR 2.12%
WTI Oil price 79.97 12: EST
Brent Oil: 84.03 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN /// AT: 90.59 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 44//100 RUBLES/DOLLAR
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4380 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.3430 UP 3 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0968 DOWN 0.01098 OR 110 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2793 DOWN .01346 or 135 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.352 % UP 2 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 139,18 DOWN 1.183 //YEN UP 118 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3237 UP .0033 CDN dollar, DOWN 33 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 79.85
Brent OIL: 83.78
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 16 BASIS pts to 4.014%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 17 BASIS PTS to 4.066%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 11 PTS AT 4.937%
USA dollar index: 101.56 UP 92 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.95 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 90.59 DOWN 0 AND 44/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 237.40 PTS OR 0.67%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 34.33 PTS OR 0.22%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.68 UP 1.49 PTS (11.30)%
GLD: $180.23 DOWN 2.88 OR 1.57%
SLV/ $22.11 DOWN .80 OR 3.49%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:
Market Panics After Planted Story Of BOJ YCC Tweak Sends Stocks Tumbling, Yields And Yen Soaring
THURSDAY, JUL 27, 2023 – 04:05 PM
With just three hours to go until the oldest US equity index was set to close green for the 14th day in a row, its longest stretch of gains since inception in 1896….
… and with stocks levitating merrily one day after Powell effectively gave the green light to keep buying by assuring markets that the “July Goodbye” was, for all intents and purposes, the last rate hike, the market suddenly deflated like a Hindenburg balloon encountering a spark just after 1pm Eastern when the BOJ’s favorite mouthpiece, the Nikkei, decided at the logical local time of 2am, to blast a report claiming that the BOJ would discuss tweaking yield curve control. That was enough to reverse all the Dow gains and send it deep in the red, putting a screeching halt to all immiennt celebrations of euphoric market stupidity.
Mind you, the report said nothing new: just last week, Bloomberg reported exactly the same when it also noted that a YCC discussion was imminent, however with the substantial caveat that the BOJ would end up doing nothing despite said discussion.
What the report did, was spark a marketwide momemtum reversal (as amateur retail traders once again got spooked out by whoever planted the trial baloon, who just happened to be long the yen) and stop hunt, as first the USDJPY plunged below the key level of 141 and then 140…
…. while fears that the BOJ would spark another round of JGB liquidations, sent both JGBs and US Treasuries (recall Japan is the largest foreign holder of TSYs, so dumping JGBs would suggest less demand for US paper too) crashing, with the 10Y yield surging above 4.00%
And since everyone is watching the 4.00% level as a catalyst to sell long duration assets – you know, those stocks which are up 50%, 100%, or much more YTD – spoos promptly panicked, and tumbled 70 points after the planted BOJ story.
Pretty much every sector (with the exception of Communications services, where last night’s META earnings blowout kept the lights on), was red.
The carnage spilled over into crypto…
…. and even precious metals were hammered although the pain here started well before the BOJ news, and instead it was today’s stellar US economic data that sparked the rout.
The only asset class that did well, was the most beaten down one: oil briefly tipped above $80 and having crossed back above its 200DMA for the first time this year, is a fraction away from a new bull market and much more gains.
Turning to the world of derivatives, flows followed price: according to SpotGamma, put buyers came in this afternoon, unlocking after the SPX touched fresh highs at the 4600 Call Wall. Yet absent into the afternoon was 0DTE flow (red) – one would have assumed that they try would bring some mean reversion before the close, but it was not meant to be.
It does not seem that the Fed’s 500 basis points of hikes has had any effect!
initial and continuing jobless claims plunge to lowest levels in 5 months
(zerohedge)
Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims Plunge To Lowest In 5 Months
THURSDAY, JUL 27, 2023 – 08:45 AM
Initial jobless claims were expected to rise modestly last week – after hitting 2-moth lows the prior week – but instead they tumbled further to 221k (the lowest since Feb 2023)
Source: Bloomberg
Non-seasonally-adjusted claims plunged from 6-month highs to 2-month lows.
New York saw the biggest drop in claims, followed by California (with only Vermont seeing a rise, and that was tiny). We have never seen a distribution of states’ claims that is as skewed as this… something is afoot.
Continuing Claims also dropped to 1.69mm Americans – the first time back below 1.7mm since Jan 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
Does any of this smell like The Fed’s 500bps of hikes had any impact at all?
end
This does not sound like it is disinflationary!
(zerohedge)
Durable Goods Orders In June Saw The Biggest Monthly Spike In 3 Years
THURSDAY, JUL 27, 2023 – 08:39 AM
Orders for Durable Goods in America were expected to rise for the 4th straight month in this mornings preliminary June data and it did…bigly.
The headline orders printed a 4.7% MoM surge (almost 4x the expected 1.3% rise) – that is the biggest monthly rise in durable goods orders since July 2020.
Source: Bloomberg
Excluding transportation, orders climbed only 0.6%, which makes sense given the 69.6% surge in non-defense aircraft orders…
The 9.3% YoY rise in durable goods orders is the largest since June 2022.
The value of core capital goods orders, a proxy for investment in equipment that excludes aircraft and military hardware, increased 0.2% last month after a downwardly revised 0.5% gain in May.
Of course, this data is nominal – not adjusted for inflation – but still, does any of that sound like a disinflationary economy ‘impacted’ by 500bps of rate-hikes?
end
US GDP Grew An Unexpectedly Hot 2.4% In Q2 Despite Fed’s Aggressive Tightening Campaign
THURSDAY, JUL 27, 2023 – 09:08 AM
So much for the Fed’s attempts to slowdown the US economy.
US GDP growth in the second quarter was much stronger than expected as activity proved resilient in the face of the Federal Reserve’s campaign of aggressive interest rate rises (or at least Biden’s persistence to paint the economy as stronger has never been this articulate).
The world’s largest economy grew an unexpectedly strong 2.4% between April and June, so-called “data” just released by Biden’s Commerce Department showed. This marked a rebound from an also stronger than expected 2% growth rate in the first quarter, and was a strong beat to the 1.8% rate predicted by economists.
Economists had an unusually wide range of predictions for Thursday’s growth data, with forecasts gathered by Refinitiv ranging from 0.3% to 3% growth rates. Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics said forecasting this quarter was complicated by the fact that several pieces of data on international trade and durable goods orders, which are normally released in advance, are this month being published at the same time as the GDP figures.
Looking at the component breakdown, consumer spending growth slowed after an unusually strong start to the year but the reduction was more than offset by strong business investment in both inventories and fixed assets.
Compared to the first quarter, the acceleration in GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected an upturn in private inventory investment and an acceleration in business investment. These movements were partly offset by a downturn in exports, and slowdowns in consumer spending, federal government spending, and state and local government spending. Imports turned down.
Some more details:
The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services (led by housing and utilities; health care; financial services and insurance; and transportation services) and goods (led by recreational goods and vehicles as well as gasoline and other energy goods).
The increase in business investment reflected increases in equipment, structures, and intellectual property products.
The decrease in exports primarily reflected a decrease in goods (led by industrial supplies and materials; consumer goods, except food and automotive; and foods, feeds, and beverages) that was partly offset by an increase in services (led by travel).
In terms of bottom line contribution:
Personal consumption resulted in 1.12%, or roughly half, of the 2.420% bottom line GDP print, a big drop from Q1’s 2.79%. Still, on an annualized basis Personal Consumption came at 1.6%, beating estimates of 1.2%.
Fixed Investment added 0.83%, a sharp increase from the -0.08% subtraction from GDP growth in Q1.
the Change in private inventories was neutral: it contributed 0.14% to the bottom line number, which however was a big improvement from the -2.14% in Q1.
Net trade (exports less imports) subtracted -0.12% from the Q2 GDP print, as a slowdown in exports detracted more from growth than the slowdown in imports (an add to GDP).
Finally, government consumption added another 0.45% to GDP, down from 0.85% in Q1.
The data comes a day after the US central bank lifted its benchmark interest rate to the highest level in 22 years as part of its ongoing efforts to tame inflation. Clearly, Powell isn’t doing enough to crush the US economy. Either that, or the Biden apparatchiks are simply doing everything in their power to reverse the optics of the ongoing economic slowdown, which according to the inverted yield curve, means the biggest recession this century is imminent.
Turning to prices, gross domestic purchases prices increased 1.9% in the second quarter after increasing 3.8% in the first quarter. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 2.6 percent after increasing 4.2 percent.
Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices increased 2.6% in the second quarter after increasing 4.1% in the first quarter. Excluding food and energy, the PCE “core” price index increased 3.8% after increasing 4.9%, coming below the 4.0% estimate.
Finally, real disposable personal income (DPI) — personal income adjusted for taxes and inflation—increased 2.5% in the second quarter after increasing 8.5 percent in the first quarter.
Current-dollar DPI increased 5.2% in the second quarter, following an increase of 12.9% in the first quarter. The increase in the second quarter primarily reflected increases in compensation, personal income receipts on assets, rental income of persons, and personal current transfer receipts. Personal saving as a percentage of DPI was 4.4% in the second quarter, compared with 4.3% in the first quarter.
The unexpectedly strong recent data, which a growing number say is grotesquely manipulated (just compare the record delta between GDP and GDI) by the admin, has raised hopes that the Fed can achieve the rare feat of a “soft landing” — bringing inflation under control without major economic damage. But others are concerned that the economy’s resilience will make it harder to bring inflation all the way to the Fed’s 2% target.
On Wednesday, Fed chair Powell said his “base case is that we will be able to achieve inflation moving back down to our target without the kind of really significant downturn that results in high levels of job losses”. He also noted the risks: “At the margins, stronger growth could lead over time to higher inflation and that would require an appropriate response for monetary policy, so we’ll be watching that carefully.”
end
“The Housing Recession Is Over”: Pending Home Sales Post First Increase Since February
THURSDAY, JUL 27, 2023 – 10:15 AM
The housing market may be paralyzed, with the gap between bids and asks wide enough for an army of Hummers to drive though, but where the rare transaction is still taking place, buyers have been aggressively chasing offers as recent existing home sales and the just released pending home sales data revealed.
In June, pending home sales registered a modest increase of 0.3% the previous month – the first increase since February – according to the National Association of Realtors, beating estimates of a -0.5% drop and following last month’s -2.5% decline. The modest sequential increase raised the annual drop to -14.8%, an improvement from the -20.7% drop in May.
Regionally, the South and West posted monthly losses, while sales in the Northeast and Midwest grew. All four U.S. regions saw year-over-year declines in transactions.
“The recovery has not taken place, but the housing recession is over,” said the always cheerful NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, “The presence of multiple offers implies that housing demand is not being satisfied due to lack of supply. Homebuilders are ramping up production and hiring workers.”
Still, when one looks at both the pending and existing home sales index, it is difficult to share Larry’s enthusiasm. Also notable is the record disconnect between existing/pending transactions and new home sales which have been storming higher in recent months.
The Pending Home Sales Index – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – rose 0.3% to 76.8 in May. Year over year, pending transactions fell by 15.6%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.
NAR forecasts that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will hit 6.4% this year and then decline to 6.0% in 2024, while the unemployment rate will rise slightly to 3.7% in 2023 before increasing to 4.1% in 2024.
“With consumer price inflation calming close to the Federal Reserve’s desired conditions, mortgage rates look to have topped out,” Yun added. “Given the ongoing job additions, any meaningful decline in mortgage rates could lead to a rush of buyers later in the year and into the next.”
NAR expects existing-home sales to decrease 12.9% from 2022 to 2023, settling at 4.38 million, before climbing 15.5%, to 5.06 million in 2024. Compared to last year, national median existing-home prices will remain steady – declining 0.4%, to $384,900, before rebounding by 2.6% next year, to $395,000. The West – the country’s most expensive region – will see reduced prices while the more affordable Midwest region is likely to see a small, positive increase. Housing starts will drop 5.3% from 2022 to 2023, to 1.47 million, before increasing to 1.55 million, or 5.4%, in 2024.
“It is critical to expand supply as much as possible to widen access to homebuying for more Americans,” Yun said. “Home prices will be influenced by how much inventory is brought to market. Increased homebuilding will tame price growth, while limited construction will lead to home price appreciation outpacing income growth.”
Newly constructed home sales will increase from last year by 12.3% in 2023, to 720,000 – due to additional inventory in this segment of the market – and increase by another 13.9% in 2024, to 820,000. The national median new home price will decrease by 1.9% this year, to $449,100, and then improve by 4.2% next year, to $468,000.
END
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Yellow will file for bankruptcy protection on Monday
(Premack//Freightwaves)
Exec At Trucking Giant Yellow Tells Staff Company Will File Bankruptcy On Monday
Yellow’s senior vice president of sales informed her staff on Wednesday that their last day would be Friday and the less-than-truckload carrier will file bankruptcy on Monday, according to three employees who attended the video call.
Yellow is the third-largest LTL company and employs some 30,000 workers, including around 22,000 Teamsters members. The trucking company had an operating revenue of $5.245 billion in 2022.
The sales employees were approved to tell customers of the bankruptcy plans and to take paid time off for the rest of the week.
In a meeting later Wednesday, according to a video of the meeting viewed by FreightWaves and two employees present, the senior vice president told employees to backtrack on the bankruptcy statement. She said to “correct” any customers that were previously told there would be a bankruptcy and to share the following statement:
“Yellow’s talks with the IBT are ongoing. As previously stated, and in keeping with fiduciary responsibility of the company’s executives, the company continues to prepare for a range of contingencies.”
A Yellow representative shared the same statement when FreightWaves reached out for comment to learn more about the message that the trucking company may file for bankruptcy on Monday.
Yellow’s vice president of technology services also told her team the above statement Wednesday afternoon, according to one Yellow employee. That employee said, previously in the day, their boss advised their team that a bankruptcy could happen at any time and to send out resumes.
END
More layoffs from Bud light after that disastrous marketing campaign.
(zerohedge)
Bud Light To Lay Off Hundreds Of Employees In Wake Of Disastrous Pro-Trans Marketing
THURSDAY, JUL 27, 2023 – 07:45 AM
Bud Light’s self-destruction after its botched TikTok promotion with clownish, male-to-female trans influencer Dylan Mulvaney, resulting in what Deutsche Bank analyst Mitch Collett recently said is a permanent loss of nearly 25% of its business and Mexican lager Modelo Especial securing the spot as America’s top-selling beer, has likely forced Anheuser-Busch InBev to lay off hundreds of workers.
The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday night that Anheuser-Busch, which sells Budweiser and Stella Artois, will slash 2% of its 18,000 US workforce. The company said the layoffs wouldn’t impact front-line workers such as brewery and warehouse staff.
“While we never take these decisions lightly, we want to ensure that our organization continues to be set for future long-term success,” Anheuser-Busch Chief Executive Brendan Whitworth said in a statement.
Whitworth continued, “These corporate structure changes will enable our teams to focus on what we do best—brewing great beer for everyone.”
The restructuring will affect corporate and marketing roles at New York, St. Louis, and Los Angeles offices. Two percent of the total workforce is roughly 380 positions.
At the start of July, Ardagh Group, a glass bottle producer who contracts with Anheuser-Busch, said it was closing plants in North Carolina and Louisiana. The closures will result in the firing of 645 employees — all because Bud Light’s Harvard-educated marketing director (now fired) thought it would be a great idea to celebrate Mulvaney’s “365 Days of Girlhood.”
From blue-collar workers at bottle plants to white-collar workers at corporate and marketing offices of Anheuser-Busch, there are hundreds of innocent folks, if not many more, who are unemployed because of ‘wokeness’ backfiring.
end
USA// COVID//VACCINE/ECONOMIC COSTS
A must view:
(MishShedlock)
Beware The Huge Negative Lag Impact Of Three Rounds Of COVID Stimulus
Estimates from econometric studies indicate that the government expenditure multiplier is positive for the first four to six quarters after the initial deficit financing, then turns negative after three years.
The lag now begins to bite.
Real Per Capital Average of GDP and GDI courtesy of Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management
The Hoisington Management 2023 Q2 Review by Lacy Hunt is another gem. His focus this quarter is on government debt, negative multipliers, and lag times.
2023 Q2 Key Ideas
Rising Budget Deficits
The U.S. Government budget deficit has taken a serious turn for the worse this year. The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, as enacted, add over $1 trillion to the deficit over the next several years. The Penn Wharton Budget Model, however, indicates that due to the way instructions were written, the cost of the IRA is running three times greater than the amount appropriated by Congress. Current year federal tax revenues have also fallen considerably below a year ago. This is consistent with real gross domestic income (GDI) which fell in three of the last four quarters.
Increased interest payments and a short fall in tax revenues both add to the deficit, but they do not boost economic activity. Neither produce a new job, a new road, or a new dollar of research and development. More importantly, the lagged effects of the huge budget deficits of FY 2020-21 are likely to be negative due to the government expenditure multiplier.
Estimates from econometric studies of highly indebted industrialized economies indicate that the government expenditure multiplier is positive for the first four to six quarters after the initial deficit financing, then turns negative after three years. This implies that a dollar of debt financed federal expenditures will, ‘at the end of the day,’ reduce private GDP.
Successfully Time Tested
Two different rigorous studies, one completed in 2011 and the other in 2012, each using different methodologies, both concluded government fiscal policy actions that either increase the size of government relative to GDP or increase the government debt relative to GDP significantly weaken the trend rate of economic growth. The evidence, from more than a decade since this research was published, confirms those findings and indicates that the government multiplier is becoming increasingly negative.
Andreas Bergh and Magnus Henrekson (BH), writing in the peer-reviewed Journal of Economic Surveys in 2011, determined that a one percentage point increase in government size reduces the annual growth rate in real per capita GDP by 0.05% to 0.1% per year. Increases in government size means that more of the economy is being shifted away from the high positive multiplier private sector into the negative multiplier government sector.
When President Nixon closed the Gold Window, the 20-year moving average of the ratio of government size relative to GDP was 25.2% while the real per capita GDP/GDI average growth rate was 2.2%, which coincided with the average real per capita GDP growth rate since 1870. Based on the comparable numbers in early 2023, government size was a considerably higher 34.3%, and the growth in the real per capita GDP/GDI average was a much slower 1.3%. Thus, government size increased 9.1 percentage points and the real per capita GDP/GDI average growth lost 0.9% per year [Lead Chart]. Thus, the actual results, twelve years of which were beyond BH’s publication date, means the negative impact on economic performance was within 0.1% of BH’s top of the range.
Reinhardt, Reinhardt and Rogoff (RRR)
The Reinhardts (Carmen and Vincent) and Kenneth Rogoff, published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives in 2012, found that when gross government debt exceeds 90% of GDP for more than five years, then economies lose 1/3 of the trend rate of growth. Gross U.S. government debt moved decisively above this 90% threshold ten years ago. As previously stated, the trend rate of growth of real per capita GDP since 1870 is 2.2%. Over the last twenty years the average growth rate has fallen to 1.3%, a loss of slightly more than 1/3 of the yearly growth rate even though the last twenty years included some years in which the debt ratio was not above 90%. If the U.S. economy were on trend, real per capita GDP would be approximately $73,000, almost $13,000 higher than the actual level. RRR also argued that the deleterious effects of high debt levels would build even before reaching the 90% threshold, and indeed they did. This finding leads to the causal explanation that the overuse of debt reflects the law of diminishing returns.
Productivity
Productivity, or output per hour in the nonfarm sector, declined by a record pace over the past ten quarters. Neither a rising standard of living nor increasing corporate profitability are achievable over time without higher productivity. Since January, non-farm payrolls have increased by 1.2 million, but the average workweek has dropped from 34.6 hours to 34.4 hours, leaving aggregate hours worked virtually unchanged. To restore productivity, firms will need to rationalize their workforce, which will simultaneously reduce labor costs, inflation and household purchasing power.
The above paragraphs from Lacy Hunt highlight some of my recent articles on the ridiculously named Inflation Reduction Act, Industrial Production, and declining productivity.
Labor Productivity vs Costs
Labor productivity, costs, and hourly earnings data from BLS, chart by Mish.
Labor Productivity vs Costs Long Term
Productivity Dead Zone
A huge wave of boomers retirements is in progress. Skilled boomers are now replaced with unskilled Zoomers (generation Z), who do not seem to have the same work ethic.
The Fed Reports Abysmal Industrial Production Numbers and Negative Revisions Too
Industrial production data from the Fed, chart by Mish
Recession Lead Times From IP Peaks
In yet another sign of a weakening economy, the latest industrial production report was an outright disaster.
The Bloomberg Econoday consensus estimate was unchanged in May from June. Instead, Industrial production fell 0.5 percent and the Fed revised May from -0.2 percent to -0.5 percent.
President Biden can mandate ridiculous rules, but he cannot force people to buy EVs.
Largest Discrepancy Between GDP and GDI in 20 Years
Real GDP, Real Final Sales, and Real GDI data from BEA, chart by Mish
Economists have given up on the idea of a strong recession, if indeed any at all. That’s despite the fact that GDI suggests a recession may have already started.
It would be a hoot if recession started just as economists finally gave up on the idea of one happening.
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END.
SWAMP STORIES
THE KING REPORT
The King Report July 27, 2023 Issue 7141Independent View of the News The DJTA soared as much as 2.6% by 10:02 ET. UNP was +11.6% before 10:00 ET; Ryder and Old Dominion were +6% or higher. UNP missed on EPS (2.57, 2.75 exp.) and revenue ($5.96B, $6.09B exp.) but it soared because UNP changed CEOs! Old Dominion reported 2.65 EPS; 2.63 was consensus. Ryder reported EPS of 3.61 (1.91 consensus) but a revenue miss ($2.88B, $3.05B exp.).
The NY Fang+ Index sank 1.5% by 11:00 ET despite Google being +6% at the time. Microsoft’s 5.1% decline offset traders’ jigginess over Google’s results. Google opened +6% (130.07); it quickly sank 2.66 points. Traders of various classes aggressively bought the dip, driving Google to a daily high of 130.98 at 9:51 ET. Google then rolled over and declined until 10:45 ET.
ESUs traded at a daily high of 4606.75 when they opened at 18:00 ET on Tuesday night. They then tumbled 15 handles in 17 minutes. ESUs then traded sideways until a modest rally developed near 23:00 ET. The rally ended quickly; ESUs then traded in a tight range until they rallied into and after the European opening. ESUs peaked at 3:37 ET. They declined until the NYSE opening rally.
Alas, the usual NYSE opening rally ended within 11 minutes; ESUs sank to 4580.50 at 11:00 ET. The rally for the European close was modest and a modest Noon Balloon developed. It ended at 12:12 ET. ESUs then sank11 handles by 12:57 ET. ESUs made a double bottom at 4580.50.
After a modest rebound, ESUs went inert ahead of the 14:00 ET release of the FOMC Communique.
ESUs initially sank 7 handles on the innocuous FOMC Communique release. Traders bought the dip, driving ESUs 12 handles higher in 2 minutes. Bulls got their financial media stooges to write that Powell would signal that the Fed’s next move is a pause. But the rally quickly stalled. ESUs went inert as traders waited for Powell.
Powell’s Prepared Remarks Highlights The economy does not work for anyone without price stability Full effects of tightening yet to be felt Future hikes depend on data Economy is expanding at a moderate pace, housing has picked up but below year ago activity Labor market remains very tight; unemployment remains low at 3.6% Inflation has moderate since last year but a long way to go to get it down to 2% The Fed is acutely aware that inflation provides severe hardship especially for necessities of life The Fed will take lags of monetary policy into consideration
ESUs oscillated in a wide range during the early part of Powell’s speech. They rallied later. When Powell finished his prepared remarks, ESUs quickly soared to 4610.75, a new high, because Powell was not hawkish and most traders pine to buy stuff.
Powell’s Q&A Highlights Have not made decision to go ‘every other meeting’ on rate hikes; will be meeting to meeting decisions By the September FOMC Meeting the Fed will have 2 employment reports and 2 CPI reports Good that headline inflation has come down; but there are risks on both sides of inflation argument Core Inflation is still quite elevate; it is a better signal of where inflation is headed than CPI The Unemployment Rate is the same (3.6%) as it was when we first started hiking rates We can afford to be patient and resolute in rate hike decisions The Fed staff is no longer is forecasting recession (No recession, No Fed Pivot!) I don’t see inflation back to 2% until 2025 The supply of homes remains tight
Various journalists kept asking Powell a variation of the same question: Inflation is down, why don’t you stop hiking rates.’ Powell’s responses were more hawkish than traders wanted to hear. So, ESUs and stocks declined. When Powell asserted that he doesn’t think inflation will get to 2% until 2025, ESUs and stocks plunged. At 15:19, ESUs hit a new daily low of 4573.75.
Trapped bulls desperately needed a bounce ‘for the marks.’ So, someone manipulated ESUs 14 handles higher by 15:21 ET. ESUs and stocks then traded sideways until they trekked higher after 15:30 ET. The rally ended at 15:45 ET. ESUs and stocks traded sideways into the close.
Gasoline rallied sharply again on Wednesday, hitting +2.45% near 11:00 ET.
Gasoline Is Surging All Over the World in Fresh Inflation Blow – Bloomberg Refinery outages and low stockpiles… boost prices… Futures just soared to a nine-month high…
Bloomberg: US New-Home Sales Fall for First Time since February Purchases declined 2.5% in June after downward revision Pace still suggests steady demand for new properties US new-home sales declined in June for the first time in four months, suggesting high borrowing costs and prices are restraining momentum in the market. Purchases of new single-family homes fell 2.5% to an annualized 697,000 pace after a downward revision to the prior month, government data showed Wednesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 725,000 rate… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-26/us-new-home-sales-fall-for-first-time-since-february
@zerohedge: You really can’t make this up (although the DOE just did): last week saw a RECORD adjustment factor applied to the underlying data to make the crude oil drop appear far smaller than it was. This is unprecedented data fudging at this point to keep oil prices low. https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1684212392538800134
BBG’s @JavierBlas: Dear Lord, the @EIAgov “adjustment” factor climbed last week to a record of 2.415m b/d (we have only data for the weekly adjustment since 2002). The outsized adjustment isn’t a good look, at all, for the EIA. https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1684212189236789248
If the DoJ, FBI, and CIA are corrupt, why wouldn’t far less important government agencies be corrupt?
Positive aspects of previous session The DJIA rallied for the 13th straight session, the best run since the summer of 1987! The DJTA soared; Nasdaq and Fangs soared after Powell’s prepared remarks Bond rallied moderately
Negative aspects of previous session Gasoline rallied sharply Fangs tumbled before Powell’s presser and during Powell’s Q&A The Fed’s fecklessness has induced equities to bubble up – despite Fed Funds at a 22-year high.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will inflation in housing and energy commodities push CPI higher in coming months?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4565.67 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4582.47; 4547.58
@spomboy: The chart showing Corp net interest payments declining is burning up the financial blogosphere. That data come from the BEA’s NIPA accounts. Here is 1q data from S&P. (Int Exp has risen sharply)The difference is every company that’s too small to make it into the top 500. Those companies are filing for bankruptcy at the fastest pace since 2009. The collapse in Int Payments is no mystery. And it’s emphatically NOT a good sign. https://twitter.com/spomboy/status/1684204880557137923
@albertedwards99: Presenting the maddest chart I have seen for a long time. Normally in a tightening cycle, corporates (huge net borrower) suffer a big rise in net interest payments. But not this time which has boosted profits and also helps explain the delayed recession.https://t.co/mGsxO3Z0ZH
After the close Meta (Facebook) reported EPS of 2.98 (2.89 exp.) and revenue of $32B ($31.06B exp). Meta forecasts Q3 revenue at $32B to $34.5B, $31.18B was consensus. Meta rallied as much as 8.8%.
Today – Stocks are extremely overbought on buying for Q2 results and momentum buying. Plus, there is still way too much liquidity in the system. When there is a strong rally into earnings season, a peak tends to appear when most of Fangs have reported results. Apple and Amazon report on August 3. Ergo, a significant top is due. Perhaps some type of peak will form with end of July performance gaming.
The ECB is expected to hike rates by 25bps; the unknown is future rate hike guidance. ESUs are +2.75 at 20:20 ET in extremely quiet trading. USUs are -10/32.
Expected earnings: IP .40, LUV 1.09, VLO 5.06, CMCSA .96, BAX .61, MAS .96, NOC 5.33, HON 2.20, TXT 1.19, BMY 1.97, HCA 4.24, NSC 3.13, MA 1.82, MCD 2.78, F .54, MDLZ .69, INTC -0.04,
Expected economic data: Q2 GDP 1.8%, Consumption 1.3%, Price Index 3.0%, Core PCE 4.0%; June Durable Goods 1.2% m/m, ex-Trans 0.1%, Nondef Ex-Air -0.2%, Shipments 0.1%; Initial Jobless Claims 235k, Continuing Claims 1.75m; June Advance Goods Trade -$91.9B; June Wholesale Inventories -0.1% m/m, Retail Inventories 0.5%; June Pending Home Sales -0.5% m/m; July KC Fed Mfg. Activity -10
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4354; 100-day MA: 4205; 150-day MA: 4131; 200-day MA: 4065 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,979; 100-day MA: 33,566; 150-day MA: 33,549; 200-day MA: 33,308 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is negative, MACD is positive – a close above 4514.50 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4340.63 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4507.80 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4555.29 triggers a sell signal
@CBSNews: Hunter Biden’s plea deal in a tax case has fallen apart in federal court. “As it stands right now, there is no plea agreement between the president’s son and the U.S. government,” @CBS_Herridge reports… “There is an ongoing investigation by the US Attorney in Delaware… Hunter Biden could face criminal prosecution in the future on other criminal charges… Hunter Biden’s legal team believed this was in effect a global agreement, a one and done… there would be no further prosecution… The government position is different…” https://cbsnews.com/news/hunter-bi
@BrianBrenberg: Hunter Biden plea deal apparently crumbling because judge reportedly asked a very basic and obvious question: if this investigation is ongoing, why a deal now and this deal?…
@nicksortor: Federal Judge Maryellen Noreika asked the top prosecutor in the Hunter Biden case if the deal meant Hunter would be IMMUNE from prosecution for other possible crimes—including those related to representing foreign governments. The prosecutor said NO, then one of Hunter’s attorneys jumped up and said “then there’s no deal!” Reporters present in the courtroom have said the judge seemed highly skeptical of the “unusual deal” from the get-go, as it offered Hunter Biden BROAD immunity from prosecution in perpetuity. The judge questioned why it was filed under a provision that gave her no legal authority to reject it. She then asked Leo Wise, the top prosecutor, if there was any precedent for that kind of deal being proposed. He replied, “No, your honor.”
@willscharf: The Hunter Biden plea deal was apparently more outrageous and far reaching than had previously been publicly known. In return for pleading to the two misdemeanor tax fraud charges, with a joint recommendation of no prison time, Hunter was getting not just pretrial diversion on his felony gun charge that would leave his record clear if he completed probation, but also broad guarantees against further prosecution on a wide range of other charges that haven’t been publicly aired as of yet. Hunter refused to plead guilty without these guarantees, so the judge effectively blew up the plea. Hunter wants to walk away from a decade of criminal activity, including potential FARA violations and other serious criminal charges, with a slap on the wrist. It’s a scandal that Biden’s DOJ was willing to agree to this kind of a deal. Fortunately, Judge Norieka isn’t playing ball.
CNN — “The deal appears to be back on track.” “Biden’s team is agreeing to the plea deal, but a much more limited in scope deal… would cover any tax charges from 2014 to 2019… drug charges… specific fire arms charges…”https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1684238320837046285
Hunter Biden pleads NOT GUILTY in a Delaware courtroom on gun and tax charges, REFUSING to accept the plea deal previously laid out by prosecutors. NBC’s Tom Winters says the judge “will not accept or reject the plea agreement” b/c “she wants more information.” https://twitter.com/CurtisHouck/status/1684252714975342592
Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: Judge Noreika repeatedly expressed her concerns about the constitutionality of the diversion deal on the gun charge. Her main problem with that agreement is that the document specifies that if Hunter breaches the agreement she would have to make a finding of fact on that matter before the government could bring charges. Judge Noreika said she saw that as being “outside of my lane.” And therefore, if the diversion agreement might be unconstitutional, then the whole plea deal would be unconstitutional and Hunter Biden would not be getting the immunity he thinks he’s getting. Judge Noreika apologized to Hunter Biden near the end of the hearing. “Mr. Biden, I know you want to get this over with, and I’m sorry…. But I need to get more information to do Justice as I’m required to do.” The judge asked for briefings from both sides, including ideas on changing the language which puts her in the center of the diversion agreement. She mentioned 30 days, but did not set a firm schedule.
Ex-fed prosecutor @shipwreckedcrew: The outcome of the Biden plea hearing is a cover story. There is NO WAY that the two sides didn’t discuss before today whether this was a “Global Plea” or not. The idea that Hunter’s team only learned today that other charges are still possible is idiotic. One of two things is true: 1) There was a “wink and nod” agreement that this would be the only charges he faced, but neither side wanted to put it in writing due to the firestorm it would cause. 2) Realizing there was no way to escape the firestorm that has come up since the plea deal surfaced, they used the “excuse” that other charges might yet be filed to step back and talk about the case further rather than go forward. This was performance art today. They knew they couldn’t go forward in the face of the IRS whistleblower testimony and all the other revelations about how Hunter and Biden family members getting millions of foreign revenue. That is a way to play “hide the ball” from the public, but judges see so many plea agreements in the course of just a single year they realize immediately when something isn’t right, and then they ask questions. That’s what happened here. She realized something wasn’t kosher and she may issue a “Show Cause” Order asking for an explanation of why the two linked issues were placed in separate documents and then did not call attention to one another. This was a “hidden” global plea agreement — and the fact that they tried to pull that off is all the GOP House needs to impeach Merrick Garland. This is clear misconduct and it would not have happened without the approval of the upper levels of DOJ. This is not something an AUSA and the US Attorney in Delaware are going to try to slip thru on their own. If Garland wants to avoid impeachment he should ask Lisa Monaco for her resignation by COB Friday.
Ex-fed prosecutor @WisenbergSol: Now we know why DOJ didn’t show us the plea agreement terms. Think about this. DOJ was about to sanction a plea deal where Hunter would get misdemeanor probation on serious tax charges plus pretrial diversion (no time served or criminal record) on the felony gun charge. Hunter would also get complete immunity on all other charges. And he would not have to cooperate with the government’s ongoing investigation. Totally disgraceful. Merrick Garland and David Weiss should be ashamed. And where is Lisa Monaco? Why hasn’t she been called to testify?
@nicksortor: The new “Conditions of Release” for Hunter Biden have just hit the docket, signed by Judge Maryellen Noreika, who shelved Hunter’s plea deal today. If Hunter does NOT comply with any part of the order, he could be immediately arrested. HUNTER IS REQUIRED TO:
NOT possess a firearm
NOT use or possess any controlled substances (including marijuana) unless prescribed
@paulsperry_: Judge Noreika questioned Hunter and his lawyers whether he was “sober” when he continued to make “errors” filing his taxes through 2018-2019 and they conceded he WAS sober, which speaks to intent, indicating judge may not agree to recommended no jail-time at sentencing.
@paulsperry_: The reason NY-based Latham & Watkins is involved in Delaware-based Hunter Biden case is b/c Hunter’s lead attorney Chris Clark used to work for Latham & Watkins and with partner NickMcQuaid, who was installed by Biden to head DOJ’s criminal division. McQuaid’s now back at Latham…
@mirandadevine: Caleb Boggs, whose name graces the building where Hunter Biden’s plea deal is being heard, was the two-term GOP incumbent who lost his senate seat in a controversial upset to Joe Biden in 1972. Joe, then aged 29, won by just 3000 votes amid accusations of Teamster trickery.
@FOX19 (Cincinnati): Earlier this year, Mitch McConnell, 81, was out of the Senate for almost six weeks after falling and hitting his head.
GOP @RepMattGaetz: I don’t trust Speaker McCarthy’s word on impeaching Joe Biden.Before becoming Speaker, he said he would open an impeachment inquiry into Secretary Mayorkas. He hasn’t done that. Weeks ago, he said the IRS whistleblower information justified an impeachment inquiry in AG Merrick Garland. He hasn’t done that.
WSJ Editorial Board: The Real DeSantis Covid Record – Trump and the left are distorting Florida’s superior pandemic performance on public health and limiting harm from lockdowns. Progressives want Donald Trump to win the GOP nomination, which explains why they’re distorting Ron DeSantis’s Covid record. The press knows the Florida Governor’s opposition to lockdowns is a political selling point, so in Trumpian fashion they are rewriting history… The lockdown damage continues, but progressives can’t admit they were wrong. Nor can Mr. Trump. So they are trying to take down Ron DeSantis for being right…Progressives and Mr. Trump also won’t concede that Mr. DeSantis’s Covid strategy proved to be an economic boon. Between April 2020 and July 2022, 622,476 people moved to Florida from other states, including families who wanted children in school… Democrats have never forgiven Mr. DeSantis for defying the lockdown consensus and reopening his state in spring 2020. Americans can recall—though would probably rather forget—how the Trump Administration extended its “15 days to slow the spread” again and again… https://www.wsj.com/articles/ron-desantis-covid-record-lockdowns-vaccines-donald-trump-florida-1a6dbda2
Ex-intel official claims feds ‘absolutely’ have UFOs, materials of ‘non-human’ origin during bombshell hearing – Grusch did allege that he had “personal knowledge of people who’ve been harmed or injured in efforts to cover up or conceal these extraterrestrial technology.” …https://trib.al/IaQ3DFi
Five ways Ayn Rand predicted America’s political crises, from parents spurned to the rise of cancel culture – ‘Atlas Shrugged’ author saw that growing influence of ‘rotten ideas’ would create ‘rotten outcomes,’ social upheaval
Rand foresaw America’s tragic failures in education…
Rand warned against government encroaching on parental rights and authority…
Rand predicted the intellectual dangers of victimhood…
Rand warned that ever-larger government would stifle intellectual freedom…
Rand argued capitalism would perish in a society cowed by cancel culture…
harveyorganblog.com 
