GOLD PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $9.60 TO $1925,80
SILVER PRICE CLOSED: DOWN $0.40 AT $22.76
Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSE 1925.65
Silver ACCESS CLOSE: 22.76
Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price
USD oz gram kilo tola
AM1965.74
PM1964.19
New York price at the time: 1933.00
premium $32.00
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Bitcoin morning price:, $29,364 UP 297 Dollars
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $29,067 DOWN 22 dollars
Platinum price closing $903.95 DOWN $20.55
Palladium price; $1224,20 DOWN $17.35
END
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2,584.68 DOWN 4.40 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)
BRITISH GOLD: 1510.41 DOWN 4.86 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)
EURO GOLD: 1756,98 DOWN 3.18 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,933.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/07/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 08/09/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
152 C DORMAN TRADING 4
190 H BMO CAPITAL 210
323 C HSBC 190
357 C WEDBUSH 1
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 57
365 H MAREX CAPITAL M 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 153
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 455
661 C JP MORGAN 174 662
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
690 C ABN AMRO 24
700 C UBS 2019
709 C BARCLAYS 48
726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 21
880 C CITIGROUP 2
991 H CME 362
TOTAL: 2,193 2,193
MONTH TO DATE: 9,960
JPMorgan stopped 662/2193 contracts.
FOR AUGUST:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2023. CONTRACT: 2193 NOTICES FOR 219,300 OZ or 6.8211 TONNES
total notices so far: 9960 contracts for 996000 oz (30.979 tonnes)
FOR AUGUST:
SILVER NOTICES: 44 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 220,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 892 for 4,460,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $9.60
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD//
NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.00 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 448.987 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 3560 CONTRACTS TO 141,517 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.46 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A JUPITER SIZED 8716 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: 8716 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.46). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OF ANY SILVER CONTRACTS AS WE HAD OUR HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 5662 CONTRACTS ON BOTH EXCHANGES.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A GIGANTIC ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 2062 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.105 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 225,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING RISES AT 4.465 MILLION OZ + OUR NEW CRIMINAL 0 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0.00 MILLION OZ + 1.45 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR/// NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SILVER: 5.940 MILLION OZ/// // // GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) JUPITER SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (8716 CONTRACTS)/ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL 261 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 6 days, total 6459 contracts: OR 32.295 MILLION OZ (1076 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 32.295 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 32.295 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3560 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.46 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 2062 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF 3.105 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 225,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 4.465 MILLION OZ+ 1.45 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK NEW TOTALS 5.940 MILLION OZ//// .. WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 5622 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE 8716//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION . THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (8716) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE./
WE HAD 44 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 220,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1026 CONTRACTS TO 431,434 AND CLOSER TO TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED: 297 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 1026 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $5.45 LOSS IN PRICE//MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST. AT 30.656 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 16,400 OZ QUEUE.JUMP + PRIOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = (.684 TONNES) //NEW STANDING 31.639 TONNES + .684 EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 32.323/ + /A FAIR (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 1757 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH A $5.45 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 884 OI CONTRACTS (2.749 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1910 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 431,731
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 884 CONTRACTS WITH 1026 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR 1910 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 884 CONTRACTS OR 2.749 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 1657 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1910 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1026) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 884 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 30.656 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 16,400 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 31.639 TONNES + .684 TONNES (EXCHANGE FOR RISK//PRIOR) NEW TOTALS: 32.323 TONNES/// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH SOME TAS LIQUIDATION //4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1657 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
AUGUST
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUG :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 17,459 CONTRACTS OR 1,745, 900 OZ OR 54.30 TONNES IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2909 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 54.30 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 54.30/3550 x 100% TONNES 1.69% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH: 409.30 TONNES INITIAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 54.30 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (JUNE), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 3560 CONTRACTS OI TO 141,517 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A HUGE 2062 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 2062 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2062 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 3560 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2062 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5622 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 28.11 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.46 LOSS IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.21 PTS OR 0.25% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 353.75 PTS OR 1.81% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 122.73 PTS OR 0.38% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.01 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.2175 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.2447 /Oil UP TO 80.66 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 83.65 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1026 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 431,434 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $5.45 ON MONDAY.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1910 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 1910 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1910 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 884 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1910 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 729 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $5.45//MONDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 1657 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//THE HUGE NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS INITIATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GOLD/SILVER MARKET AS RAIDS WILL SURELY BE UPON US TRYING TO CONTAIN OUR PRECIOUS METALS RISE IN PRICE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: AUGUST (32.323) (NON ACTIVE MONTH)
TONNES),
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 32.323 TONNES (INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $5.45) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 884 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 2.749 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST. (30.656 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 16,400 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 31.639 TONNES + .6842 (PRIOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK) //NEW TOTAL 32.323 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $5.45.
WE HAD – REMOVED 297 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 884 CONTRACTS OR 88,400 OZ OR 2.749 TONNES.
Estimated gold volume today:// 141,372 awful
final gold volumes/yesterday 110,161 awful
//AUGUST 8/ FOR THE AUGUST 2023 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 32.151 Brinks 1 kilobar . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 57,488.988 OZ HSBC |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 2193 notice(s) 219300 OZ 0.0653TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 212 contracts 21200 oz 0.6594 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 9960 notices 996000 OZ 30.979 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: NIL oz
customer deposits: 0
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 1 customer withdrawals
i) Out of Brinks 32.151 oz (one kilobar)
Adjustments; 0
/
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.
For the front month of AUGUST we have an oi of 2405 contracts having GAINED 143 contracts. We had 21 contracts filed
on Monday, so we gained 164 contracts or an additional 16,400 oz will stand at the comex
Sept gained 11 contracts to 2677.
Oct gained 84 contracts to 32,943 contracts.
We had 21 contracts filed for today representing 2100 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 174 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 2193 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and662 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9960 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (2405 CONTRACT) minus the number of notices served upon today 2193 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,017,200 OZ OR 31.639 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of AUGUST. + .684 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/prior = 32.323 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month: No of notices filed so far (9960) x 100 oz + (2405) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (2193) x 100 oz) which equals 1,017,200 oz standing OR 30.639 TONNES + .684 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/prior = 32.323 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 32.323 TONNES WHICH IS SMALL FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 2,083,941.636 OZ 64.82 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 22,260,325.005 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD: 12,039,935.976 (374,49 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,226,389.029 O Z
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 9,955,994 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 309.67 tonnes//
END
SILVER/COMEX
AUGUST 8
//2023// THE AUGUST 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 525,905.873 oz CNT Brinks Loomis Delaware Manfra . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | N/A oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 600,568.320 oz CNT |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 44 CONTRACT(S) (220,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1 contract (5,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 892 Contracts (4,460,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: 0 oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into CNT: 600,568.320 oz
total customer deposits: 600,568.320 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 140.471 million oz/281.399 million =49.92% of comex .//
Comex withdrawals 5
i) Out of CNT 126,326.375 oz
ii) Out of Loomis 28,868.340 oz
iii0 Out of Brinks 148,033.230 oz
iv) Out of Delaware 10,913.363 iz
v) Out of Manfra 211,764.564 oz
adjustments: 1 Brinks /dealer to customer:
615,493.04 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 31.066 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 281.399 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST /2023 OI: 45 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 15 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD
60 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 45 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 225,000 OZ WILL STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.
SEPT HAS A LOSS OF 2396 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 92,515
OCT GAINED 20 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 108.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 44 for 220,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 87,473 strong/t.a.s.induced /
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday: 80,273 strong/t.a.s induced
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 892 x 5,000 oz = 4,460,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (45) and the number of notices served upon today 44 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST/2023 contract month: 892 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST (45) – number of notices served upon today (44 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates to 4.465 million oz.+ 0.0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED TODAY+ 1.45 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR//NEW TOTALS: 5.915 MILLION oz.
There are 31.066 million oz of registered silver.
Thus if we take today’s standing at 5.915 and add last month’s 30.9 million oz we have 36.815 million oz against only 31.066 million registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.00 TONNES
AUGUST 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.00 TONNES
AUGUST 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.00 TONNES
AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.18 TONNES
AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.75 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.18 TONNES
AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 31/WITH GOLD UP $9.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $14.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915,82 TONNES
JULY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.26 TONNES
JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $6.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.20 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES
JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES
JULY 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.07 TONNES
JULY 18/WITH GOLD UP $23.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 14/WITH GOLD UP $0.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES
JULY 13/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.29 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.66 TONNES
JULY 12/WITH GOLD UP $24.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 914.95 TONNES
JULY 11/WITH GOLD UP $6.15 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.0 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915.26 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 916.26 TONNES.
JULY 7 WITH GOLD UP $16.80 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES.
JULY 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.86 TONNES
JULY 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.6 TONNES FROM THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 921.90 TONNES
JULY 3/WITH GOLD UP $1.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES//
JUNE 30/WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 924.50 TONNES
JUNE 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.26 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.81 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 906.00 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.294 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 189,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.281 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 275,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.471 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 184,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.746 MILLION OZ
JULY 31/WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 184,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.746 MILLION OZ
JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.930 MILLION OZ
JULY 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ
JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/
JULY 25/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/
JULY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/
JULY 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.101 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/
JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.468 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 454.107 MILLION OZ/
JULY 19/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 17/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.856 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 14/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.21 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV////////INVENTORY RESTS AT 455.875 MILLION OZ/
JULY 13/WITH SILVER UP 64 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 12/WITH SILVER UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.881 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 462.941 MILLION OZ/
JULY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .020 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.822 MILLION OZ/
JULY 10/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.672 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 464.802 MILLION OZ
JULY 7/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ
JULY 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.667 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 466.474 MILLION OZ//
JULY5/WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
JULY 3/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 468.141 MILLION OZ//
CLOSING INVENTORY 448.987 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
The Real Threat Is A Market-Driven Dollar-Downgrade
TUESDAY, AUG 08, 2023 – 05:00 AM
Last week, Fitch Ratings downgraded the US’s long-term credit rating from AAA to AA+. While the downgrade won’t significantly impact the US government’s ability to borrow, it should serve as a wake-up call because there is a much bigger problem looming on the horizon: a market-driven downgrade of the US dollar.
The bond market got pummeled last week with four losing days before a rally on Friday driven by a weaker-than-expected jobs report. That rally wasn’t enough to recover all the losses, and yields finished the week above 4% across the board.
We also saw a reversion in the 5-year and 30-year yields, with the 30-year closing above the 5-year for the first time in quite a while. The 5-year and 10-year yields remain inverted, still flashing recession.
The upward movement of yields on the long end of the curve could indicate that bond traders are starting to reckon with reality, but there is still a long way to go. Generally, investors still seem to think that the Fed will be able to push price inflation back to the low levels we saw during the decade preceding the pandemic. They haven’t figured out that this easing price inflation is transitory. So, the bond market remains priced for a fantasy, although it appeared the smoke might be clearing as yields move up.
Supply and demand dynamics are also driving yields higher. In just two months since Congress reached a deal and suspended the debt ceiling for two years, the national debt has surged by a staggering $1.2 trillion. And the borrowing isn’t going to slow down anytime soon. Last week, the Treasury Department upped its projection for third-quarter debt issuance to $1.01 trillion. That’s up from the $733 billion Q3 projection it imagined in May.
Rising interest rates make a “soft landing” (tackling inflation without a recession) less likely because they are problematic for everybody. Along with the US government, corporations and consumers are buried under debt. As rates rise, it becomes more and more difficult to service that debt or to continue propping up the bubble economy with additional borrowing.
Oil prices also continued their upward climb last week. Oil is up about 30% in this most recent run. The fact that the oil chart looks bullish and the bond chart looks bearish makes sense if the underlying problem in the economy is inflation.
The Fitch Downgrade and the Bigger Problem
With the current debt ceiling fight resolved, Fitch removed the US’s Issuer Default Rating from “watch negative” to “a stable outlook.” But the end of the debt ceiling standoff wasn’t enough to alleviate fears about America’s debt trajectory.
“The repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management.”
Nevertheless, the markets generally brushed off the Fitch downgrade. And in the big scheme of things, it is irrelevant.
It doesn’t even make sense to apply a credit rating on the US government. The point of a rating is to indicate the likelihood of default. Nobody is really worried about the US government defaulting because the Federal Reserve can always create more money.
But that doesn’t mean there is no risk in buying US Treasuries. And that risk applies to any bond you buy with US dollars. It doesn’t matter how credit-worthy the issuer of the bond happens to be. In fact, the same risk applies if you take your dollars and stuff them under the mattress.
That risk is inflation.
Every day, your dollar is losing its purchasing power.
Dollar depreciation is like a default. If a government has to resort to a printing press to pay off its bills, you still get your money back when a government bond matures, but you lose purchasing power. The dollars you get back won’t buy as much stuff.
So, an honest rating of US government debt would be junk status — not because of the default risk but because of the high likelihood that it will continue to inflate away the dollar’s value.
In fact, we’re insulting to junk status. You are guaranteed to lose with a long-term US Treasury. There is no chance that you will buy a 30-year Treasury with a yield of just over 4% today and break even at the end of that term. Sure, you’ll get all of your dollars back (most likely), but those dollars won’t have anywhere near the value that they had when you loaned them out.
That raises a key question: if you’re guaranteed to lose with a bond, what should the rating be?
At some point, people need to realize that the fact the US government will have to print money in order to pay its debts is a reason not to buy Treasuries. Keep in mind, Treasuries are just future payments of US dollars. So, you should really be looking at the rating of the currency and consider what the dollar will be worth in 30 years. Will that 4% interest cover what you lose through inflation over that period of time and give you some kind of positive return?
The bottom line is the rating is meaningless. All US government debt is junk. People need to get out of all dollar-denominated debt as quickly as they can.
end
2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
China officially adds 740,000 oz (2.302) tonnes. However it purchases a lot more than that and puts the yellow stuff in their investment banks
(Bloomberg)
China’s central bank adds gold for ninth straight month
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-08-07 09:57Section: Daily Dispatches
Or announces an addition anyway. No official gold data is very complete or reliable.
* * *
By Sybilla Gross
Bloomberg News
via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California
Monday, August 7, 2023
China raised its gold reserves for a ninth straight month in July as central bank purchases continue to underpin prices of the precious metal.
Bullion held by the People’s Bank of China rose by 740,000 troy ounces, the central bank said today. That’s equivalent to about 23 tons. Total stockpiles now sit at 2,137 tons, with around 188 tons added in a run of purchases that began in November.
China has led central bank buying in recent months as it continues to diversify its reserves. That has helped keep prices buoyant despite rising interest rates around the world, which typically sap demand for non-interest bearing bullion. …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-central-bank-adds-more-081837343.html
end
Demand for gold is still red hot in Turkey because of their declining Lira. Now they plan to restrict gold import quotas toprotect its FX balances
(Reuters)
Turkey said to plan gold import quota to protect FX balance
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-08-07 10:05Section: Daily Dispatches
From Reuters
Monday, August 7, 2023
ANKARA — Turkey plans to impose a quota on imports of unprocessed gold in order to reduce the negative impact on the current account balance, according to a source familiar with the matter and state-owned Anadolu Agency.
Anadolu reported today that the Treasury had decided to introduce the quota in a bid to both relieve the deficit and boost foreign exchange reserves.
It said legislative work on the measure would be completed soon by the Treasury and the Trade Ministry and that the quotas will apply to unprocessed gold imports carried out by precious metals brokers who are members of Borsa Istanbul.
Imports of unprocessed gold in the first seven months of the year increased by 180% from the same period a year earlier to $19.4 billion, Trade Ministry data shows.
After February’s devastating earthquakes, restrictions were imposed on gold imports. But domestic demand for gold nonetheless became stronger, with negative returns on the lira being the main factor boosting demand. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES/SILVER
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: Lithium batteries
Lithium Batteries//GREEN NEW DEAL
Robert H
Re: Lithium battereis, billions of our tax dollars pumped into it, another huge gov’t scam.
>
> FOOD FOR THOUGHT
>
>
>
> A machine like this is required to move 500 tons of earth/ ore which
> will be refined into one lithium car battery. It burns 900-1000
> gallons of fuel in a 12 hour shift.
>
> Lithium is refined from ore using sulfuric acid. The proposed lithium
> mine at Thacker Pass, Nevada is estimated to require up to 75
> semi-loads of sulfuric acid a day! The acid does not turn into unicorn
> food as AOC believes.
>
> Refining lithium has created several EPA SUPERFUND SITES. IT IS VERY
> TOXIC TO THE ENVIRONMENT!
>
> A battery in an electric car, let’s say an average Tesla, is made of :
>
> 25 pounds of lithium,
>
> 60 pounds of nickel,
>
> 44 pounds of manganese,
>
> 30 pounds of cobalt,
>
> 200 pounds of copper,
>
> And 400 pounds of aluminum, steel, and plastic, etc……averaging
> 750-1,000 pounds of minerals, that had to be mined and processed into
> a battery that merely stores electricity… Electricity which is
> generated by oil, gas, coal, or water ( and a tiny fraction of wind
> and solar )…
>
> That is the truth, about the lie, of “green” energy.
>
> There’s nothing green about the “Green New Deal”.
>
> people better learn how to vote or this nonsense will continue to
> flow down on top of you from the throne of government upon of which
> you put these people.
>
> Stop drinking the Green New Deal’s sulfuric acid Kool-Aid!
>
> “Woke — a Synonym for Stupid”
>
> Dr. Phillip A. Fields
>
> Scientist / Researcher
>
> SE Labs
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
END
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2175
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2447
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.21 PTS OR 0.25%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 353,75 PTS OR 1.81%
2. Nikkei closed UP 122.73 PTS OR 0.38%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 102.48 EURO FALLS TO 1.0942 DOWN 62 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.591 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 142.97/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.4225***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield FALLS to 4.120*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD FALLS TO 3.486…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 3.740
3j Gold at $1929.00 silver at: 22.96 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 10 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 96.38//
3m oil into the 80 dollar handle for WTI and 83 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 142.97// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.591% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8774 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9600 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.995 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.160 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.730 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.02…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 10 BASIS PTS AT 4.3935
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures And Yields Slide, Global Markets Tumble As Mood Sours After Trifecta Of Dismal News
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, AUG 08, 2023 – 08:40 AM
Global stocks slid, US equity futures slumped and bond yields tumbled as a raft of news on collapsing Chinese trade, Italian banks hit with an unexpected windfall tax, and a downgrade of US banks by Moodys (on increasing funding costs/CRE exposure) sparked a fresh round of fears about the financial system and global economy. At 7:45am, S&P futures were down 0.7% trading as low as 4,502 while Nasdaq futures dropped 0.8% amid a broad flight to safety across markets which sent yields on the 10-year Treasury 10 basis points lower and the equivalent rates in Germany fell 15 basis points. The Bloomberg dollar index climbed 0.5% while oil resumed its slide following ugly oil import data by China. Today’s macro data includes Small Biz Optimism, Trade Balance, and Wholesales Sales/Inventories … nothing market-moving as we await Thursday’s CPI print.
In the premarket, tech and small-caps underperformed while defensives were the green. Investors are also closely watching US financials after Moody’s lowered credit ratings for 10 small and midsized lenders and warned about the risks tied to commercial real estate: the XLF was indicated -67bps and KRE -1.3% lower in premarket trading. Eli Lilly extended gains to 8.6%, after the drugmaker boosted its revenue guidance for the full year; the guidance beat the average analyst estimate. Earlier, Lilly shares jumped following Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy update. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Hims & Hers Health shares surge 17% after the telehealth company boosted its full- year adjusted Ebitda outlook. Overall, analysts said the print was better than expected, with Citi highlighting the better average order value being a key driver for the beat.
- Home Depot and Lowe’s are downgraded to market perform from outperform at Telsey Advisory Group. Home Depot falls 1.3%, while Lowe’s slides 1.4%.
- Lucid gains as much as 4.5% on Tuesday after the EV startup said it still believes it will produce at least 10,000 vehicles this year.
- Maravai LifeSciences shares slide 15% after the biotech firm cut its full-year outlook for adjusted earnings per share, adjusted Ebitda and total revenue.
- Olaplex tumbles as much as 27%, after cutting its full-year projections for net sales, adjusted Ebitda and adjusted net income.
- Palantir Technologies shares edge higher 2.6% after the data-analysis software company reported second-quarter results and raised its full-year adjusted operating profit forecast.
- Paramount Global rises as much as 4.4% after the media company reported revenue for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate, driven by a jump in its streaming-TV business.
- Proterra Inc. which makes heavy-duty electric vehicle components like chargers and batteries, filed for bankruptcy on Monday. Shares fall 66%.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 dropped 0.7% with banks posting the steepest losses after Italy announced an unexpected tax on windfall profits, sending shares of UniCredit SpA and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA down more than 7%. The euro-area banks index slumped as much as 3.4%. BPER Banca, Banco BPM, Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit all fell at least 7%. In the UK, banks also fall as BNP Paribas Exane says that while lenders in Britain are cheap, it is staying relatively cautious, downgrading Barclays to neutral and Virgin Money UK to underperform. Here are the most notable European movers:
- Novo Nordisk jumps as much as 16%, the most since 2002, after results from the SELECT cardiovascular outcomes trial for Wegovy, where the obesity drug achieved its primary objective.
- Glencore shares drop as much as 4.4% after the miner reported a 50% drop in first-half adjusted Ebitda. Analysts said profits were weaker than expected amid a drop in commodity prices
- Abrdn falls as much as 9.6% after the investment company posted 1H operating profit and net outflows that missed expectations. RBC says the results signal a further delay of return to growth
- InterContinental Hotels shares rise as much as 2.2% after the hotel operator reported estimate- beating results and said there’s no sign of cooling in leisure demand
- Fraport rises as much as 8.6% after the German airport operator produced second-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ estimates and showed a continued recovery toward pre-pandemic levels
- Norma shares advance as much as 9.4%, the most in more than six months, after the tech hardware firm provided guidance that Baader Helvea says looks “reasonable”
- TI Fluid shares rose as much as 22%, the most intra-day on record, after the UK car- fluid-storage manufacturer delivered what the analysts saw as a strong trading update with a significant EBIT beat
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks slumped as the early optimism following the positive lead from Wall St was soured as Chinese markets entered the fray, while the region also digested disappointing Chinese trade data.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp spooked markets with the Hong Kong benchmark heavily pressured as tech and property stocks lead the broad declines across sectors, while sentiment was also not helped by the wider-than-expected contraction in Chinese exports and imports data.
- ASX 200 traded rangebound after mixed consumer sentiment and business confidence surveys.
- Nikkei 225 was initially lifted by a weaker currency and earnings release but then wiped out nearly all of its gains as markets were spooked by selling in Chinese stocks.
Investor sentiment took a big hit after China released more data that showed its economic engine is sputtering. Exports plunged by the most since early 2020, the beginning of the Covid pandemic, and imports contracted last month. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and a gauge of European mining shares fell about 2%. Commodities prices retreated, with oil and copper losing almost 2%. Sentiment was further dented after two missed coupon payments by Country Garden.
As Bloomberg notes, China’s disappointing economic recovery is being felt acutely among exporting nations in the developing world. The MSCI Emerging Market Index of stocks headed for the lowest close in almost four weeks and looked to breach the support level at its 50-day moving average. Its currency-index counterpart also traded at the weakest level since July 10, with the South Korean won and Malaysian ringgit among the worst performers.
“Reduced demand for raw materials and commodities due to its economic slowdown is likely to lead to a decrease in global commodity prices,” according to Nigel Green, CEO of DeVere Group. “Those countries heavily reliant on commodity exports would then experience economic hardships as their revenues decline.”
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.4% with the world’s reserve currency advancing against all of its of Group-of-10 peers. The yen slid the most against the US currency after falling as much as 0.7%. The People’s Bank of China set Tuesday’s yuan reference rate at 7.1565 per dollar, revising an earlier fixing in the morning when it had indicated a stronger fixing of 7.1365. The latest fixing was set at the weakest level in nearly a month. “A clearly visible CNY depreciation trend might further strengthen the tendency of private domestic capital to leave China,” said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of currency strategy at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “The Chinese authorities have to be very certain that their capital controls work well if they want to risk that.”
In rates, treasuries hoeld gains into early US session with yields lower by up to 10bp across long-end of the curve. Treasury yields are down 3bp to 10bp across the curve with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads flatter by 5.5bp and 2.5bp on the day; 10- year yields just under 4% are richer by 10bp on the day with bunds and gilts outperforming by 4.5bp and 1bp in the sector. Treasuries drew support during Asia session following disappointing China trade data. Today’s bull-flattening move is led by bunds, drawing flight-to-quality flows with Italian banks slumping after the government introduced a surprise tax on “extra profits” this year. US regional banks are also in focus after Moody’s Investors Service lowered credit ratings for 10 small and midsize lenders based on mounting funding costs. Treasury auction cycle begins with 3-year note sale at 1pm New York time. The treasury auction cycle includes $42b 3-year note followed by $38b 10-year Wednesday and $23b 30-year bond Thursday in upsized auction amounts. WI 3-year yield around 4.38% is ~15bp richer than last month’s, which stopped 0.2bp through the WI yield.
In commodities, crude futures declined with WTI falling 2% to trade near $80. Spot gold drops 1%
Looking to the day ahead, on the data side in the US we will get the July NFIB small business optimism, June wholesale trade sales and June trade balance releases. Over in Europe, we have the final Germany inflation print for July as well as the releases of the ECB’s latest consumer expectations survey. Our economists’ dbDIG survey suggests that the ECB survey should show a further slight easing of inflation expectations – see their earlier note here. Among central bank speakers, we will hear from the Fed’s Harker and Barkin. Finally, earning releases include Eli Lilly, UPS, Glencore, Bayer, Coupang, Barrick Gold, Take-Two Interactive, Rivian and Lyft.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,522.00
- MXAP down 0.8% to 165.03
- MXAPJ down 1.1% to 520.05
- Nikkei up 0.4% to 32,377.29
- Topix up 0.3% to 2,291.73
- Hang Seng Index down 1.8% to 19,184.17
- Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,260.62
- Sensex down 0.1% to 65,876.04
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,311.14
- Kospi down 0.3% to 2,573.98
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 457.83
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.49%
- Euro down 0.2% to $1.0979
- Brent Futures down 1.2% to $84.28/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,932.35
- U.S. Dollar Index up 0.31% to 102.37
Top Overnight News
- China’s trade plunged in July as slowing global demand clouded the outlook for exports, while domestic pressures weighed on imports in a hit to the economic recovery. Overseas shipments dropped 14.5% in dollar terms last month from a year earlier — the worst decline since February 2020 — while imports contracted 12.4%, the customs administration said Tuesday. That left a trade surplus of $80.6 billion for the month. BBG
- Country Garden (2007.HK) said it has not paid two dollar bond coupons due on Aug. 6 totaling $22.5 million, confirming market fears that the biggest privately owned developer in China is slipping into repayment troubles. The bonds in question are notes due in Feb 2026 and Aug 2030 , the firm told Reuters. Both payments have 30-day grace periods, according to investors citing prospectuses. RTRS
- Chinese firms forced to cut prices amid tepid demand, raising the risk of a Japan-like slide into sustained deflation. BBG
- Eurozone inflation expectations sink further according to the latest ECB survey (“median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months decreased further to 3.4%, from 3.9% in May, and those for inflation three years ahead also declined, easing to 2.3% from 2.5% in May”) (ECB)
- Italy’s right-wing government shocked markets with an unexpected tax on banks’ windfall profits, wiping out around $10 billion from the market value of the country’s lenders. Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini announced a 40% levy on the extra profits of lenders for 2023 late Monday night, as part of a wide-ranging decree approved at a cabinet meeting. BBG
- Apartment buildings, long considered a real-estate haven, are emerging as the next major trouble spot in the beleaguered commercial-property world. Investors bid up the prices of multifamily buildings for years, attracted by steadily rising rents and the prospect of outsize returns. Many took on too much debt, expecting they could raise rents fast enough to pay it down. WSJ
- Moody’s cut its rating on 10 small and midsize banks including MTB, WBS, BOKF, ONB, PNFP, FULT, ASB, and PB. and adopted a negative outlook for 11 lenders including PNC, COF, CFG, FITB, RF, ALLY, OZK, and HBAN. In addition, the agency said that it may downgrade major lenders including USB, BK, STT, TFC, and NTRS. The action came as part of a review driven by the challenges facing the industry including higher funding costs, potential regulatory capital weaknesses, and rising risks tied to commercial real estate loans amid weakening demand for office space “which have collectively lowered the credit profile of a number of US banks, though not all equally”. BBG
- Some of the biggest names in commercial real-estate lending have all but turned off the spigot. Blackstone Mortgage Trust and KKR Real Estate Finance Trust, two of the biggest mortgage real-estate investment trusts, have halted loans to any new borrowers. WSJ
- UPS (-7% pre mkt) reported small EPS upside at 2.54 (vs. the Street’s 2.50 forecast) as very healthy operating margins (13.2% vs. the Street’s 12.4% forecast) helped to offset a revenue shortfall (-10.9% to $22.055B vs. the Street’s $22.99B forecast). However, the company is cutting its guidance, with revenue getting hit by the macro environment (they now see $93B vs. the prior $97B) and op. margins pressured by the new Teamsters deal. RTRS
- Booming oil prices last year powered U.S. inflation to 40-year highs. That trend was reversing in 2023—until now. Benchmark crude prices are up 21% over the past six weeks, driving up the cost of American workers’ commutes and freight haulers’ trips.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pacific stocks traded mixed after the early optimism following the positive lead from Wall St was soured as Chinese markets entered the fray, while the region also digested disappointing Chinese trade data. ASX 200 traded rangebound after mixed consumer sentiment and business confidence surveys. Nikkei 225 was initially lifted by a weaker currency and earnings release but then wiped out nearly all of its gains as markets were spooked by selling in Chinese stocks. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp spooked markets as they entered the fray with the Hong Kong benchmark heavily pressured as tech and property stocks lead the broad declines across sectors, while sentiment was also not helped by the wider-than-expected contraction in Chinese exports and imports data.
Top Asian News
- China’s Ambassador to the Philippines said the Philippines took unilateral actions to undermine the existing management status quo on Second Thomas Shoal and China had no choice but to make necessary responses. Furthermore, China hopes the Philippines meets China halfway and said third-party forces will not help the situation, while China is waiting for feedback from the Philippine side and hopes to start talks ASAP, according to Reuters.
- Major Chinese property developer Country Garden Holdings (2007 HK) said it has not paid two USD bond coupons due Aug 6th worth some USD 22.5mln, according to Reuters.
European bourses are lower across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.20%, risk tone hit by Chinese trade and reports around a property developer. Within Europe, the FTSE MIB -2.2% lags following Italy approving a 40% windfall tax on banks, pressuring the broader banking index, -2.7%. Elsewhere, sectors are more mixed; Banking lags as mentioned while Basic Resources are dented by the trade data and a poorly-received update from Glencore. Stateside, futures are in the red, ES -0.5% and feature continued modest underperformance in the RTY -0.8%. Elsewhere, the risk tone around banks was soured further by Moody’s downgrading several US banks.
Top European News
- BoE’s Pill said inflation remains much too high and they have seen a lot of news on inflation persistence. Pill added that there are risks on both sides on UK inflation and risks that the UK hasn’t raised rates enough but also noted that a lot of rate hikes have yet to hit the economy.
- Barclaycard UK July consumer spending rose 4.0% Y/Y vs. prev. 5.4% growth in June, while it noted that supermarket spending growth slowed sharply, according to Reuters.
- Italy’s Deputy PM said the Cabinet approved a 40% windfall tax on banks, limited to 2023. Subsequently, it was reported that Italy expects to collect last than EUR 3bln from windfall tax on banks, according to Reuters citing sources. Note, Italian banks have been under marked pressure in European trade, SX7E -2.7%
- ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations survey (Jun) – 12-months ahead 3.4% (prev. 3.9%); 3-year ahead 2.3% (prev. 2.5%)
FX
- A firm session thus far for the DXY, to a 102.47 peak irrespective of downside in yields in what is seemingly a flight to safety against the backdrop of the soured risk sentiment.
- Antipodeans are the marked laggards in early European hours amid the aforementioned downbeat risk tone and concerning Chinese trade data, whilst Australia also saw a decline in consumer confidence and sentiment data overnight.
- Traditional havens are softer on the back of the firmer Dollar, but losses are cushioned by the haven statuses, whilst a decline in US yields could also be providing some padding against the Buck.
- EUR and GBP are subdued given the USD’s upside, single currency saw little reaction to the latest consumer expectation survey while drivers for GBP have been limited and action largely USD-driven.
- The NOK is among the G10 laggards given its sensitivity to risk.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1565 vs exp. 7.1869 (prev. 7.1380)
Fixed Income
- Core benchmarks are firmer across the board given the deterioration in broader risk sentiment that took hold during APAC trade.
- Bund lifted to a 133.17 peak following a particularly strong Bobl auction, surpassing the July 31st/August 1st virtual double-top at 133.05/06. A move which brings into play 133.34 and thereafter 133.92, from the 28th and 27th of July respectively.
- A slight widening of the BTP-Bund yield spread to just above the 170bp mark, incrementally higher than the last few weeks but shy of the mid-July wides at circa. 175bp.
- Gilts are similarly bid with their own specifics light and action seemingly a function of the broader risk tone and aforementioned factors.
- Stateside, the picture is much the same as EGBs and Gilts with Treasuries posting gains of circa. 15 ticks in relative proximity to the high point of 110.31 to 111.18+ parameters, ahead of Fed speak and 3yr supply.
Commodities
- WTI and Brent futures are on the backfoot as a function of a firmer Dollar, broader risk aversion, and headwinds from downbeat Chinese trade data.
- Spot gold is subdued by the Buck and trades under its 50 DMA (USD 1,944.27/oz) around the USD 1,932/oz mark in a relatively tight USD 1,938-30/oz intraday range; yellow metal hit by the USD, but somewhat cushioned by the overall tone given its haven allure.
- Base metals have continued to dip following the commencement of the European session, initial pressure from APAC factors was further fanned by the release from Glencore. Though, internal commentary noted of a more positive macro backdrop in H2 and above-average real-term prices ahead.
- UBS retains a positive outlook for oil prices and forecasts Brent at USD 90/bbl by end-2023; Oil demand is set to breach 103mln BPD in August for the first time, due to China, India and the Middle East. See a market deficit of circa. 2mln BPD in July and August, vs around 0.7mln BPD in June.
- Turkey imposed a 20% extra fee for some gold imports, according to the Official Gazette.
Geopolitics
- Japan ruling LDP’s Aso said in Taipei that ‘we’ are moving from peacetime to times of turbulence and believe that issues that were hidden beneath the surface are coming to the fore, while he added that Taiwan is an important partner and friend. Furthermore, Aso said Japan has continued to say that peace in the Taiwan Strait is important for regional stability and the most important thing is to make sure war doesn’t break out in the Taiwan Strait.
- Polish Defence Ministry to send additional troops to Belarus border following request from border guard, according to PAP.
- Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) plans to mobilise 25,000 troops for possible intervention in Niger, according to Al Arabiya citing French Press.
US Event Calendar
- 06:00: July SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM, est. 91.3, prior 91.0
- 08:30: June Trade Balance, est. -$65b, prior -$69b
- 10:00: June Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. -0.2%, prior -0.2%
- 10:00: June Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.3%, prior -0.3%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As we approach the dog days of summer, and my holiday in a few days, it sometimes gets harder to explain moves in markets in both direction but as I’ve been doing this daily for nearly 17 years I’ve learnt to try to come up with rationales or I’ll have a blank piece of paper. We’ve had some big moves in rates in the last week following the US Treasury announcement last Monday, the Fitch US downgrade, the Treasury refunding announcement and then the reverse move after payrolls. All others things being equal I thought the extent of the rates rally after payrolls was strange given how 2-way the release was, and yesterday a 10bps intra-day rally in 2yrs from an earlier sell-off was also difficult to explain. All in all, 2yr US yields were flat (-0.1bp) at the close, with 10yr and 30yr yields up +5.6bps and +6.9bps. The S&P 500 (+0.90%) did rise after four days of losses though. Overnight, US 10yrs and 30yr yields are back -4bps and -5bps lower as I type so we are seeing some decent sized moves in these thin markets at the moment.
We did hear contrasting comments from FOMC members yesterday on the potential for further hikes. Federal Reserve Governor Bowman, who typically leans hawkish, emphasised the potential for further hikes, saying she expects that “additional increases will likely be needed to lower inflation to the FOMC’s goal”. By contrast, in an interview published by the New York Times, New York Fed President Williams said that “monetary policy is in a good place” and “whether we need to adjust it in terms of that peak rate — but also how long we need to keep a restrictive stance — is going to depend on the data”. To be fair, Bowman also stressed data dependence but she focused more on still high inflation and tight labour market. Williams did dangle a rate cutting carrot for 2024 if inflation continued to behave.
An ongoing theme in US rates has been that the sizable US yield moves have continued with only minor changes in near-term Fed pricing though. Rate pricing for end-23 rose by 1.5bps on Monday to 5.38%, while end-24 pricing retreated -2.0bps to 4.00%. So that is five and a half 25bp cuts priced for 2024. On the topic of 2024 rate cuts, yesterday our US economists published a report in which they consider what policy rules would imply for the timing and pace of rate cuts in 2024 under different economic scenarios. See their note here.
Meanwhile, short-end yields in Europe rallied on Monday following news late on Friday that the Bundesbank will from October stop paying interest on domestic government deposits. Back in September 2022, the ECB had lifted the zero ceiling on such deposits to rise in line with policy rates amid fears of a negative impact on the repo market, before reducing this ceiling to ESTR minus 20bp in the spring. A decline in government deposits at the central bank and reduced collateral scarcity may have made the Bundesbank less concerned about the risks, though it is rather unusual for it to take this step unilaterally (without other euro area national central banks). Together with the recent ECB move to pay zero interest on banks’ minimum reserves, central banks might be looking for ways to reduce their high interest costs, at least if this can be done without hindering policy effectiveness.
The yield on 6m German bills thus fell by -4.7bps on Monday, while the 2yr yield declined by -2.7bps. The German curve notably twisted and steepened as 10yr Bund yields were +3.9bps higher. An additional notable feature in European rates has been the ongoing gradual rise in long-term inflation breakevens. The 5y5y rose for the seventh session in a row yesterday to 2.67%, its highest level since 2009. So the market is not giving a strong vote of confidence in the 2% inflation target. This is similar to the US where a similar measure is up over 10bps in the past week and at levels less than a handful of basis points from 10yr highs. Elsewhere, 10yr UK yields were the biggest underperformer yesterday and +8.1bps higher, largely reversing their Friday decline.
A risk-on mode returned to equity markets on Monday, with the S&P 500 rising +0.90%, ending a run of four declines in a row. A broad rally was led by communication services (+1.88%) and financials (+1.36%). Energy stocks underperformed (+0.15%) as oil prices retreated from their 3-month high reached on Friday (Brent -1.04% to $85.34/bl). Tech stocks were a slight underperformer, although the NASDAQ still posted a solid +0.61% gain. Within the megacaps, Apple (-1.73%) and Amazon (+1.90%) saw continued contrasting moves. Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway gained +3.60% after its results, further cementing its position as the largest US company by market cap outside the tech mega caps. Over in Europe, equities were near flat on the day. The STOXX 600 eked out a +0.09% rise, after being weighed down initially by the weak US session last Friday.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning despite a strong handover from Wall Street overnight. Across the region, the Hang Seng (-1.15%) is leading losses with the KOSPI (-0.12%), the CSI (-0.02%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.04%) inching lower. Otherwise, the Nikkei (+0.32%) is bucking the regional trend. S&P 500 (-0.22%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.34%) futures are moving a bit lower.
Early morning data from China showed that exports dropped for the third consecutive month, sliding -14.5% y/y in July (v/s -13.2% expected; -12.4% in June) and recording its biggest drop since July 2020, highlighting that the world’s second biggest economy is being dragged lower by weakness in global demand and a domestic slowdown. At the same time, imports contracted -12.4% y/y in July (-5.6% expected) compared to a -6.8% drop in the previous month. Elsewhere, household spending in Japan fell -4.2% y/y in June (v/s -3.8% expected), a steeper fall than the prior month’s -4.0% drop while recording a fourth straight month of decline. Meanwhile, real wages declined for a 15th straight month, easing -1.6% y/y in June (v/s -0.9% expected) and against May’s downwardly revised drop of -0.9%. Nominal pay growth in June (+2.3% y/y) came in lower than a revised +2.9% rise in May (v/s +3.0% expected).
It was fairly quite day on the data front yesterday. A highlight was Germany’s industrial production print, which saw a larger-than-expected -1.5% mom decline in June (-0.5% exp). Also in Europe, French private sector labour market data showed a slowing in Q2. Employment grew 0.1% qoq, the slowest pace since Q4 2020, while wage growth was +1.0% qoq, down from +1.9% in Q1. So some evidence to argue against the risks of a wage-price spiral emerging in the euro area.
Looking to the day ahead, on the data side in the US we will get the July NFIB small business optimism, June wholesale trade sales and June trade balance releases. Over in Europe, we have the final Germany inflation print for July as well as the releases of the ECB’s latest consumer expectations survey. Our economists’ dbDIG survey suggests that the ECB survey should show a further slight easing of inflation expectations – see their earlier note here. Among central bank speakers, we will hear from the Fed’s Harker and Barkin. Finally, earning releases include Eli Lilly, UPS, Glencore, Bayer, Coupang, Barrick Gold, Take-Two Interactive, Rivian and Lyft.
2 b) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/ASIA REPORT
EUROPE
Risk off sentiment after weak Chinese trade, Bunds bid; Fed speak & US supply due – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, AUG 08, 2023 – 05:53 AM
- European bourses are lower given the risk tone post-China trade, banking names lag after an Italian windfall tax
- Stateside, futures are also in the red and feature continued underperformance in the RTY
- Given the tone after downbeat Chinese trade the DXY continues to lift with Antipodeans lagging
- Bunds surpassed last week’s best after a strong Bobl auction with the complex bid on the tone ahead of US 3yr supply & Fed speak
- Commodities are broadly pressured given the above factors though spot gold is somewhat cushioned by its haven allure
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Trade, US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Speakers incl. Fed’s Harker & Barkin. Supply from the US. Earnings from Eli Lilly.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are lower across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.20%, risk tone hit by Chinese trade and reports around a property developer.
- Within Europe, the FTSE MIB -2.2% lags following Italy approving a 40% windfall tax on banks, pressuring the broader banking index, -2.7%.
- Elsewhere, sectors are more mixed; Banking lags as mentioned while Basic Resources are dented by the trade data and a poorly-received update from Glencore.
- Stateside, futures are in the red, ES -0.5% and feature continued modest underperformance in the RTY -0.8%. Elsewhere, the risk tone around banks was soured further by Moody’s downgrading several US banks.
- United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) Q2 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.54 (exp. 2.50), Revenue 22.1bln (exp. 23.1bln).
- Click here for more detail.
- Click here and here for a recap of the main European equity updates.
FX
- A firm session thus far for the DXY, to a 102.47 peak irrespective of downside in yields in what is seemingly a flight to safety against the backdrop of the soured risk sentiment.
- Antipodeans are the marked laggards in early European hours amid the aforementioned downbeat risk tone and concerning Chinese trade data, whilst Australia also saw a decline in consumer confidence and sentiment data overnight.
- Traditional havens are softer on the back of the firmer Dollar, but losses are cushioned by the haven statuses, whilst a decline in US yields could also be providing some padding against the Buck.
- EUR and GBP are subdued given the USD’s upside, single currency saw little reaction to the latest consumer expectation survey while drivers for GBP have been limited and action largely USD-driven.
- The NOK is among the G10 laggards given its sensitivity to risk.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1565 vs exp. 7.1869 (prev. 7.1380)
- Click here for more detail.
- Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.
FIXED INCOME
- Core benchmarks are firmer across the board given the deterioration in broader risk sentiment that took hold during APAC trade.
- Bund lifted to a 133.17 peak following a particularly strong Bobl auction, surpassing the July 31st/August 1st virtual double-top at 133.05/06. A move which brings into play 133.34 and thereafter 133.92, from the 28th and 27th of July respectively.
- A slight widening of the BTP-Bund yield spread to just above the 170bp mark, incrementally higher than the last few weeks but shy of the mid-July wides at circa. 175bp.
- Gilts are similarly bid with their own specifics light and action seemingly a function of the broader risk tone and aforementioned factors.
- Stateside, the picture is much the same as EGBs and Gilts with Treasuries posting gains of circa. 15 ticks in relative proximity to the high point of 110.31 to 111.18+ parameters, ahead of Fed speak and 3yr supply.
- Click here for more detail.
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent futures are on the backfoot as a function of a firmer Dollar, broader risk aversion, and headwinds from downbeat Chinese trade data.
- Spot gold is subdued by the Buck and trades under its 50 DMA (USD 1,944.27/oz) around the USD 1,932/oz mark in a relatively tight USD 1,938-30/oz intraday range; yellow metal hit by the USD, but somewhat cushioned by the overall tone given its haven allure.
- Base metals have continued to dip following the commencement of the European session, initial pressure from APAC factors was further fanned by the release from Glencore. Though, internal commentary noted of a more positive macro backdrop in H2 and above-average real-term prices ahead.
- UBS retains a positive outlook for oil prices and forecasts Brent at USD 90/bbl by end-2023; Oil demand is set to breach 103mln BPD in August for the first time, due to China, India and the Middle East. See a market deficit of circa. 2mln BPD in July and August, vs around 0.7mln BPD in June.
- Turkey imposed a 20% extra fee for some gold imports, according to the Official Gazette.
- Click here for more detail.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Moody’s cut the ratings of 10 US banks by one notch and placed some larger banks on review for potential downgrades including BNY Mellon (BK), US Bancorp (USB), State Street (STT) and Truist Financial (TFC), according to Reuters.
- China’s Auto Industry Body CPCA says Tesla (TSLA) exported 32,862 China-made vehicles in July (vs 19,468 in June).
- US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Jul 2023) 91.9 (Prev. 91.0)
- Click here for the US Early Morning note.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- BoE’s Pill said inflation remains much too high and they have seen a lot of news on inflation persistence. Pill added that there are risks on both sides on UK inflation and risks that the UK hasn’t raised rates enough but also noted that a lot of rate hikes have yet to hit the economy.
- Barclaycard UK July consumer spending rose 4.0% Y/Y vs. prev. 5.4% growth in June, while it noted that supermarket spending growth slowed sharply, according to Reuters.
- Italy’s Deputy PM said the Cabinet approved a 40% windfall tax on banks, limited to 2023. Subsequently, it was reported that Italy expects to collect last than EUR 3bln from windfall tax on banks, according to Reuters citing sources. Note, Italian banks have been under marked pressure in European trade, SX7E -2.7%
- ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations survey (Jun) – 12-months ahead 3.4% (prev. 3.9%); 3-year ahead 2.3% (prev. 2.5%)
DATA RECAP
- UK BRC Total Sales YY (Jul) 1.5% (Prev. 4.9%); Retail Sales YY (Jul 2023) 1.8% (Prev. 4.2%)
- UK BBA Mortgage Rate (Jul 2023) 7.68% (Prev. 7.54%)
GEOPOLITICS
- Japan ruling LDP’s Aso said in Taipei that ‘we’ are moving from peacetime to times of turbulence and believe that issues that were hidden beneath the surface are coming to the fore, while he added that Taiwan is an important partner and friend. Furthermore, Aso said Japan has continued to say that peace in the Taiwan Strait is important for regional stability and the most important thing is to make sure war doesn’t break out in the Taiwan Strait.
- Polish Defence Ministry to send additional troops to Belarus border following request from border guard, according to PAP.
- Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) plans to mobilise 25,000 troops for possible intervention in Niger, according to Al Arabiya citing French Press.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded mixed after the early optimism following the positive lead from Wall St was soured as Chinese markets entered the fray, while the region also digested disappointing Chinese trade data.
- ASX 200 traded rangebound after mixed consumer sentiment and business confidence surveys.
- Nikkei 225 was initially lifted by a weaker currency and earnings release but then wiped out nearly all of its gains as markets were spooked by selling in Chinese stocks.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp spooked markets as they entered the fray with the Hong Kong benchmark heavily pressured as tech and property stocks lead the broad declines across sectors, while sentiment was also not helped by the wider-than-expected contraction in Chinese exports and imports data.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China’s Ambassador to the Philippines said the Philippines took unilateral actions to undermine the existing management status quo on Second Thomas Shoal and China had no choice but to make necessary responses. Furthermore, China hopes the Philippines meets China halfway and said third-party forces will not help the situation, while China is waiting for feedback from the Philippine side and hopes to start talks ASAP, according to Reuters.
- Major Chinese property developer Country Garden Holdings (2007 HK) said it has not paid two USD bond coupons due Aug 6th worth some USD 22.5mln, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Jul) 80.6B vs. Exp. 70.6B (Prev. 70.6B)
- Chinese Exports YY (Jul) -14.5% vs. Exp. -12.5% (Prev. -12.4%); Imports YY (Jul) -12.4% vs. Exp. -5.0% (Prev. -6.8%)
- Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Jul) 575.7B (Prev. 491.3B)
- Chinese Exports YY (CNY)(Jul) -9.2% (Prev. -8.3%); Imports YY (CNY)(Jul) -6.9% (Prev. -2.6%)
- Japanese Overall Labour Cash Earnings (Jun) 2.3% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.5%)
- Japanese All Household Spending MM (Jun 2023) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -1.1%); YY (Jun 2023) -4.2% vs. Exp. -4.1% (Prev. -4.0%)
- Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Aug) 81.0 (Prev. 81.3); Sentiment (Aug 2023) -0.4% (Prev. 2.7%)
- Australian NAB Business Confidence (Jul) 2.0 (Prev. 0.0, Rev. -1.0); Conditions (Jul) 10.0 (Prev. 9.0, Rev. 11.0)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
ASIAN AND AUSTRALIAN CLOSINGS//EUROPE OPENING TRADING:
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.21 PTS OR 0.25% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 353.75 PTS OR 1.81% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 122.73 PTS OR 0.38% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.01 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.2175 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.2447 /Oil UP TO 80.66 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 83.65 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
////SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
Looks like we have another Evergrande! these guys are local government agencies which lend money.
(zerohedge)
China Facing New Debt Crisis As Record Number Of LGFVs Miss Commercial Paper Debt Payments
MONDAY, AUG 07, 2023 – 11:20 PM
While some are stressing out about tonight decision by Moody’s to redirect its impotence at downgrading the US (as S&P and Fitch have already done) over fears of retaliation by the Biden admin, and instead cutting the credit ratings for 10 small and midsize US banks and saying it may downgrade major banks such as U.S. Bancorp, Bank of New York Mellon, State Street and Truist as part of a “sweeping look” at mounting pressures on the industry, the reality is that rating agencies are a 12-120 month backward looking indicator, and by the time the point to something it’s far too late to trade on it, and if anything one should take the other side of the trade.
Instead, those looking for leading market stress catalysts should turn their attention to the latest news out of China, where credit stress is once again exploding as a record number of local government financing vehicles (or LGFVs, also considered the currently most aggressive form of Chinese shadow banks) are openly cracking with a record number missing payments on a popular type of short-term debt last month.
A total of 48 LGFVs were overdue on commercial paper, which typically carries a maturity of less than a year, up from 29 in June, according to a Huaan Securities report citing data from the Shanghai Commercial Paper Exchange. Their missed payments amounted to 1.86 billion yuan ($259 million), more than double the 780 million yuan in June.
The revelation, according to Bloomberg, is set to aggravate concerns about the financial health of LGFVs, which are mostly tasked with building infrastructure projects that may take years to generate investment returns (think the more politically correct form of Chinese ghost cities). While none of them has defaulted on a public bond, their repayment risk has come under renewed scrutiny after China’s state pension fund recently advised asset managers handling its money to sell some notes including those from riskier LGFVs.
The report also sheds light on regional areas that have had the highest cluster of LGFVs to stumble on such debt in the past few years: in data current through July this year going back to August 2021, the eastern province of Shandong accounted for 37 of the 140 LGFVs that have missed commercial paper payments in that period, followed by 21 from Guizhou, its impoverished peer in the southwest.
It’s not just commercial paper however: a few months ago, we reported that according to research from GF Securities there were 73 cases of shadow-banking defaults in the first four months of 2023, already a full-year record since data became available in 2018.
“Missing payments in shadow banking are a signal that debt risks in a certain region have become more prominent,” GF analysts led by Liu Yu wrote in a report.
China’s LGFVs had 13.5 trillion yuan ($1.9 trillion) of bonds in total outstanding as of end-2022, or almost half of the nation’s non-financial corporate notes, data from Moody’s Investors Service show.
Steps by authorities “to lower LGFV debt risks will not fully resolve long-term issues,” and their refinancing ability depends on investors’ confidence in government support, especially in weaker provinces, Moody’s analysts led by Ivan Chung wrote in a report.
And judging by the number of CP dominoes falling, investors confidence in LGFV is about to evaporate, giving the government no other choice but to step in and stabilize this critical spoke of China’s infrastructure funding. Because while Beijing may be willing to risk a record 21% youth unemployment rate without a major stimulus, once the CCP faces the double threat of an angry middle class and crashing infrastructure spending, not even China’s record debt to GDP will be enough to prevent Xi from going all in on yet another massive – and globally reflating – stimmy.
end
CHINA
China’s exports unexpectedly plunge hte most since COVID as their economic slump accelerates
(zerohedge)
“The Data Was Pretty Bad”: China Exports Unexpectedly Plunge Most Since Covid As Economic Slump Accelerates
TUESDAY, AUG 08, 2023 – 07:39 AM
In the latest blow to China’s so-called recovery, overnight Beijing reported that China’s exports and imports fell more sharply than expected in July, adding to the worst trade slump since the covid collapse which is fuelling concerns over growth prospects for the world’s second-largest economy.
Exports declined by 14.5% year on year in dollar terms, worse than the -12.5% expected, worse than last month’s 12.4% drop and the steepest fall since the outset of the coronavirus pandemic in February 2020; at the same time imports tumbled 12.4%, nearly three times as bad as the -5.0% expected and nearly double last month’s -6.8% drop and the biggest decline since a wave of infections hit the mainland in January and one of the worst in recent years.
China reported that exports to the US tumbled even more, sliding a whopping 23.1%, and while the trade balance reported by the two sides has traditionally not overlapped, the trend is clear: global trade between the world’s two superpowers is collapsing.
In a statement, China’s customs administration said imports were down 7.6 per cent to $1.46tn in the first seven months of the year, while exports were down 5 per cent at $1.94tn.
Global trade weakness has emerged as one of the main sources of pressure for policymakers in Beijing, who are also grappling with a freefalling property sector that has sparked whack-a-mole defaults, and flagging domestic demand since anti-pandemic measures were lifted in December.
As the FT notes, “China’s exports helped prop up its economy during three years of closure to the world, but have struggled in 2023 as high global inflation and rising interest rates damped demand for its goods. Exports have declined year on year in each of the past three months, dropping 12.4 per cent in June, when imports also shed 6.8 per cent.” The drop has accompanied a tumble in manufacturing activity which has also contracted for four straight months, according to PMI data, reflecting a far weaker export environment and undercutting one of the anticipated engines of China’s economic recovery.
July’s unexpectedly severe fall in imports also demonstrated how disappointing domestic consumption was fueling trade concerns, more than half a year after Covid-19 swept through the country; it also renewed speculation that Beijing has no choice but to do a bazooka stimulus, yet emperor Xi refuses to do so for now, trapped by too much debt.
“The imports data was pretty bad,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics. “On our estimates, pretty much all the recovery in import volumes since the start of the year was unwound in July, which is concerning, to say the least, and suggests the domestic picture was weakening quite rapidly in the last month or two.”
Some more details on the trade data from Goldman:
- By major destination, export value declined sharply across major trading partners in both year-over-year terms and sequential terms, likely due to weaker external demand. Among major DM countries, exports to both the United States and the European Union declined sharply (-23.1%/-20.6% yoy for the US/EU vs. -23.7%/-12.9% yoy in June, respectively). Among major EM economies, exports to ASEAN declined 21.4% yoy in July (vs. -16.9% yoy in June).
- By major category, we see broad-based weakness in exports across products except for cellphones and motor vehicles. Exports of fertilizer declined the most in sequential terms. On a year-over-year basis, exports of consumer electronics rebounded in July. Exports of cellphones rose 2.2% yoy in July (vs. -23.3% yoy in June). But exports of tech-related products remained weak in July. Exports of chips fell 14.7% yoy in July (vs. 19.4% yoy in June) with a 5% decline in month-on-month (seasonally adjusted) terms. Export growth of housing-related products remained sluggish in July. For example, exports of furniture declined 15.2% yoy in July (vs. -15.1% yoy in June).
- Among major categories, the import value of commodities fell sharply in sequential terms. On a year-over-year basis, import volume growth of commodities, such as energy goods and mineral ores, remained solid in July; but import value growth of commodities was weighted down by high prices last year. Specifically, import value of crude oil fell 20.8% yoy in July (vs. -1.4% yoy in June) with import volume up 17% yoy (vs. 45.3% yoy in June). Imports of iron ore declined 14.9% yoy in July (vs. -15.1% yoy in June) with import volume up 2.4% yoy (vs. 7.4% yoy in June).
Needless to say, the market did not like the latest data: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises index shed 2.2% following the trade data release. “There’s a lot of selling happening today on the back of this export data,” said Louis Tse, managing director of Hong Kong-based broker Wealthy Securities.
President Xi Jinping’s government has set a cautious growth target of 5% this year, the lowest in decades. In the second quarter, the economy added 6.3 per cent compared with the same period last year, when Shanghai and other big cities were locked down, but growth was just 0.8% in quarter-on-quarter terms.
Beijing has not enacted major stimulus but has gradually cut cornerstone borrowing rates and taken steps to encourage activity.
Inflation data, which is set to be released on Wednesday, has for months been edging closer to deflation and will provide further evidence on domestic spending.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
ITALY
Not a good idea to introduce a windfall tax with your economy crumbling. Italian bank shares plunge after Meloni introduces its windfall tax
(zerohedge)
Italian Bank Shares Plunge After Populist Government Introduces Windfall Tax
TUESDAY, AUG 08, 2023 – 07:56 AM
Italy’s right-wing populist government surprised European markets on Monday night with a new tax on bank profits limited to fiscal year 2023. The country’s lenders plunged in Milan trading, wiping out billions of euros in market capitalization.
Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini told a press conference that the 40% tax on banks’ ‘extra profits’ derived from higher interest rates amounts to billions of euros that will help fund working families hit by the worst cost-of-living crisis in a generation, including support for mortgages for first-time owners and tax cuts.
Bloomberg reported that Italy’s cabinet approved the new tax:
- Government to apply 40% levy on highest amount between net interest income of 2022 and 2021 — when the difference exceeds 5%, or on difference in net interest income between 2023 and 2021 — with a floor of 10%
- Levy to be paid in 2024
As a result, Italian banks were the worst performers compared to European stocks. UniCredit SpA dropped 7%, and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA sank 8%.
Even though Italy’s cabinet approved a proposal to introduce a tax on banks’ profits, it’s still subjected to approval by parliament — and can still be challenged in the courts.
“The move comes shortly after Italian banks unveiled a bumper set of earnings with Intesa and Unicredit raising their full-year guidance for the second consecutive quarter on the back of the European Central Bank’s rapid policy tightening. Net interest income at UniCredit, for example, surged 42% in the first half,” Bloomberg said.
Commentary by Wall Street analysts overwhelmingly said the news is a strong headwind for the banking sector (list courtesy of Bloomberg):
Citi, Azzurra Guelfi
- Sees this tax as substantially negative for banks given both impact on capital and profit as well as for the cost of equity of bank shares
- Introduction of this tax could lead to Italian banks increasing their cost of deposits in order to reduce the extra profit
- Based on data available at this stage, calculates one-off tax is equal to ~19% of banks net profit in 2023
Banca Akros, Luigi Tramontana
- According to initial estimate, the one-off tax is expected to generate over €2b tax income for the government
- Estimates an average impact of 7% on the EPS of Italian banks under coverage and a negative reaction of market prices to this unexpected bad news
Deutsche Bank, Giovanni Razzoli
- Italy’s government approved a decree which includes “to our and probably investors’ surprise” a taxation in the form of a levy on banks
- While most details are not yet available, the move will likely trigger a short-term selloff on Italian banks
Mediobanca, Andrea Filtri
- Measure comes as a surprise and will hit share prices today, especially for those banks with “pending top-up to shareholder remuneration, as such Intesa and Banco BPM”
- With the level of UniCredit’s CET1 ratio at 16.6%, the bank would be in a position to withstand both the levy and the announced share buyback, even in a worse scenario
Equita, Andrea Lisi
- News is “clearly negative” for the sector, not only because of the one-off impact but also because of the increased regulatory risk on the sector
- Estimates Paschi to be the most impacted name, while in light of lower top line growth and/or greater diversification of revenue mix, sees restrained impact for Mediobanca, asset gatherers and specialty finance firms
Bloomberg Intelligence
- Calculates Italy lenders’ 2023 net income could be cut ~10% by proposed extraordinary tax on their “extra profits” this year
- There’s a risk the tax could be extended beyond 2023, despite lenders’ net interest income peaking
- From Banco BPM to UniCredit, Italian banks’ net income 2023 estimates had risen 36% in the past six months
Financials weigh around 30% in the Italian stock market — the surprise announcement is a fresh headwind for European stocks. Backlash for the cost of living crisis is growing.
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
More threats from Zelensky. Take it with a grain of salt.
Zelensky Threatens “Russia May Be Left Without Ships” Amid Emerging Battle At Sea
TUESDAY, AUG 08, 2023 – 05:45 AM
Last week witnessed two major Ukrainian strikes on Russian ships at sea in merely two days, which resulted in severe damage to a warship (seen listing as it was towed to port), and damage to an oil tanker known to supply fuel to Russia’s military in Syria.
This emerging “battle at sea” also comes as Russia has stepped up major assaults of Ukrainian ports, including on the Black Sea and in the Danube, across from NATO member Romania. The Olenegorsky Gornyak, a Russian Navy landing ship, tugged to shore – apparently listing – after it was attacked last Friday. via Reuters
Kiev and Washington have accused President Vladimir Putin of ‘weaponizing food’ – while the Kremlin has blamed Ukraine and its NATO backers for making Black Sea transit routes dangerous, given the sea drone attacks and release of sea mines.
In new statements, President Volodymyr Zelensky has signaled there will be more attacks on Russian ships to come, which is likely to see the conflict slide further toward “unlimited war” – where any and all targets, including civilian, are taken out.
Zelensky said in a fresh interview with the Latin American publication La Nacion that Ukraine forces will turn the ongoing blockade of Ukrainian ports back on Russia.
“If Russia continues to dominate the Black Sea and block it with missiles, then Ukraine will do the same, which is a fair defense of our capabilities,” he said. And significantly, he added:
“If they continue to shoot, we don’t have many weapons, but if they continue to shoot, they may be left without ships until the end of the war. And this is what we want to show them.”
“Therefore, Ukraine will definitely respond to any attacks on the civilian population and grain corridors,” Zelensky emphasized.
He further asserted that Ukraine’s right to produce foodstuffs and export it to global markets via the Black and Azov seas will be defended.
Romania has meanwhile pledged it will continue to assist Ukraine in exporting its grain via Romanian territory, and by alternative means, as Politico reports Monday:
Romania is working to find more ways to help transport Ukrainian grain, the country’s foreign minister said Monday, describing the security situation in the Black Sea region as “quite serious.”
More than half of Ukrainian exports using the EU’s solidarity lanes — corridors set up to facilitate transit by road, rail and inland waterway — came through Romania. The European Commission has estimated that more than 65 percent of the grain exported via solidarity lanes in June traveled along the Danube corridor.
Romanian Foreign Minister Luminița-Teodora Odobescu has blasted Russia’s attacks on grain silos as “really cynical” – also following Moscow’s refusal to renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative deal.
Russia is “seriously impeding Ukrainian grain exports that are a lifeline for vulnerable people in many importing countries,” which “is really exacerbating the global food crisis,” she emphasized.
END
TURKEY
END
6.GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES
This is awful news: heart scarring in children observede months after COVID 19 vaccination
(zerohedge)
Heart-Scarring Observed In Children Months After COVID-19 Vaccination: Study
TUESDAY, AUG 08, 2023 – 04:15 AM
Authored by Zachary Steiber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Some children who experienced heart inflammation after COVID-19 vaccination had scarring on their hearts months later, a new long-term study found.
Researchers followed a group of 40 patients aged 12 to 18 for up to one year after the children were diagnosed with myocarditis, or heart inflammation, following vaccination with one of the messenger RNA shots from Pfizer or Moderna. They performed a series of tests, including echocardiograms.
Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, or cardiac MRIs, was performed on 39 of the 40 patients. Abnormal results came in for 26 of those who were imaged, including 19 who had late gadolinium enhancement, or signs of scarring.
The patients with abnormal results returned for follow-up cardiac MRIs at least five months after the initial tests and 15, or 58 percent, had residual late gadolinium enhancement (LGE). The one patient without an initial scan also had mild late gadolinium enhancement when scanned during a follow-up visit.
“Persistence of LGE in a significant subset of patients with up to 1 year of follow-up was observed,” Dr. Yiu-fai Cheung, with Hong Kong Children’s Hospital, and the other researchers wrote.
They said that the implications of the persistence remain unclear, but that given it is an indicator of subclinical heart dysfunction and scarring, “there exists a potential long-term effect on exercise capacity and cardiac functional reserve during stress.”
The study was published by Circulation. Authors reported no funding or disclosures.
Dr. Peter McCullough, an American cardiologist and president of the McCullough Foundation, said that the new data is consistent with what cardiologists are seeing in clinical practice.
“Serious cases of COVID-19 vaccine induced myocarditis are not resolved by cardiac MRI at one year of followup in the majority of cases. At some point, we must assume that late gadolinium enhancement represents a scar or permanent damage,” Dr. McCullough, who was not involved in the research, told The Epoch Times via email.
“COVID-19 vaccines should be pulled from the market immediately until further notice. Large scale research programs should be commissioned immediately on subclinical and clinical COVID-19 vaccine induced myocarditis with initial aims at risk stratification and mitigation for cardiac arrest,” he added.
Dr. Anish Koka, another American cardiologist who was not involved in the study, said that the persistent LGE signifies a scar that replaced the initially inflamed heart muscle.
“The good news is that the amount of scar is small. The bad news is that there is scar,” Dr. Koka wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Dr. Koka said that the level of scarring indicates there would likely not be a long-term impact, but that even small levels of scarring could be a foundation for future arrhythmias, with exercise serving as a trigger.
“All these kids (even those without scar) would need exercise stress tests at 6 months to attempt to prognosticate this,” Dr. Koka said.
Pfizer and Moderna did not respond to requests for comment on the study on myocarditis, a known side effect of both of the companies’ COVID-19 vaccines.People wait to receive a COVID-19 vaccine in Hong Kong in a file photograph. (Dale De La Rey/AFP via Getty Images)
More Evidence
Myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination was first detected in early 2021, and an increasing number of studies have undercut claims from officials in the United States that the heart inflammation is mild and resolves without treatment.
A study from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), published in 2022, reported that among patients with follow-up cardiac MRIs, 54 percent had at least one abnormal finding, such as scarring.
The study relied on surveys from health care providers who examined the patients.
The providers later told the CDC that five to 13 months after the initial diagnosis, 14 percent of patients were still not cleared for all physical activity, and that multiple patients still had abnormal cardiac MRI findings. And in a separate set of surveys, many patients reported experiencing one or more symptoms beyond one year.
Read more here…
END
Shedding is occuring and thus unvaccinated are not as safe as thought
(zerohedge)
Avoided the vaccine? Not so fast: new study says most Americans have been vaccinated by their neighbors via “shedding”
BY THE WELLNESS COMPANY
What is “shedding”? Much like the spread of a live virus, antibodies and spike proteins from vaccines are believed to be spread through bodily fluids and aerosol droplets in our breath.
However, this mechanism of transferring vaccine particles from one individual to another was pure speculation.
Until now.
Pro-vax researchers at the University of Colorado published a study on vaccine shedding and celebrate a tragic conclusion:
“Our results suggest that aerosol transmission of antibodies may also contribute to host protection and represent an entirely unrecognized mechanism by which passive immune protection may be communicated. Whether antibody transfer mediates host protection will be a function of exposure, but it seems reasonable to suggest, all things being equal, that any amount of antibody transfer would prove useful to the recipient host.”
Perhaps even more shocking, the authors go on to cite a study suggesting that shedding from vaccinated adults may be an effective way to “immunize” children:
“A recent publication showed substantial benefits of parental vaccination in reducing the risk of infection in the unvaccinated children in the same home.”
Dr. Peter McCullough, America’s cardiologist and leading COVID19 expert, responded,
“These sad results confirmed our fears about the mRNA-based ‘vaccine’. Beyond the outsized health risks they pose to individuals, these risks may be transferrable to bystanders in their immediate vicinity.”
However, if you’re worried about being shed on, there are simple precautions you can take to protect yourself. The most recommended solution is a prophylactic daily dose of over-the-counter nattokinase, an enzyme known for its ability to degrade mRNA-bearing spike protein. Per Dr. McCullough:
“Out of all the available therapies I have used in my practice and among all the proposed detoxification agents, I believe nattokinase and related peptides hold the greatest promise for patients at this time.”
If you or someone you love would like to try daily nattokinase to stay healthy, The Wellness Company’s “Spike Support Formula” contains nattokinase plus other important extracts and is designed by Dr. Peter McCullough and his team.
In The Wellness Company’s Spike Support Formula you will find:
- Nattokinase(enzyme shown to dissolve spike protein)
- Selenium (aids in helping the body repair itself and recover)
- Dandelion root (may prevent spike protein from binding to cells)
- Black sativa extract (may facilitate cellular repair)
- Green tea extract (provides added defenses at the cellular level through scavenging for free radicals)
- Irish sea moss (could help rebuild damaged tissue and muscle)
Here is what people are saying about The Wellness Company’s Spike Support Formula:
“I lost my sense of smell and had other mild sensory problems after being sick in mid-2022. On top of that, I was also worried about shedding from family members as well as coming down with additional variants. I saw Dr. McCullough talk about the product and decided to give it a try. A month and a half later, I feel sooo much better. I also have recommended the product to family members to help them detox from the painful side effects of the vaccine. Would recommend this to everyone in our post-pandemic world. There’s zero downside in giving it a try.”
“I have suffered from long covid for over a year. I’ve been taking this for product for 30 days. I feel so much better. Wished I had found this earlier. Just received my 2nd order.”
“Evidently my hub and I both had covid sometime in the last few years, but didn’t know it. We are both in our mid sixties. Lately, we’d had zero energy, GI issues, and most recently for myself, heart fluttering. We’ve been taking Spike Support now for only about 10 days, and the change is REMARKABLE. I credit Spike Support completely, because I can tell when my next dose is due. The components are all tremendous in so many ways, and it’s sure nice to feel great every day again. THANK YOU TWC, for giving us our lives back! And thank YOU, Dr. McCullough for standing up and speaking out, and starting this recovery for so many folks!”
According to the Wellness Company, purchasing all the components of the Spike Support Formula would be over $100 – you can save 36% with the unique formulation in The Wellness Company’s Spike Support Formula.
END
GLOBAL ECONOMIC ISSUES//
END
GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES“
DR PAUL ALEXANDER..
SHARYL ATTKISSON on LONG COVID and LONG vaccine; brilliant as usual; Emerging research is painting an alarming picture of how the Covid vaccines stand to negatively impact our health long term!
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAUG 7 |
‘Emerging research is painting an alarming picture of how Covid and the Covid vaccines stand to negatively impacting the health of nearly all of us.
END
ZINC (& antibiotics): it was ALWAYS zinc that was the key player in ‘early treatment’ algorithms to combat COVID virus especially in initial viral replication phase, IVERMECTIN & HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE
were ZINC ionophores as zinc transporters across the host cell membranes; without ZINC, all was useless; ZINC & antibiotics were critical especially as to the florid pneumonia late COVID
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAUG 8 |
antibiotics had key anti-inflammatory and anti-viral properties along with anti-bacterial (DOXY etc.)
Thus Quercetin, hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin were ionophores for zinc, zinc was what disturbed and impacted viral replication impacting RNA dependent-RNA polymerase’s role in viral replication:
‘RNA‑dependent RNA‑polymerase (RdRp) and 3C‑like proteinase (3CLpro) are two main enzymes that play a key role in the replication of SARS‑CoV‑2. Zinc (Zn) has strong immunogenic properties and is known to bind to a number of proteins, modulating their activities. Zn also has a history of use in viral infection control.’
end
Has Hulscher & McCullough & Malhotra & Makis & Hodkinson heightened the argument (and based on autopsy), that there is often Fatal COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine-Induced Myocarditis? Yes, certainly as below
This pre-print based on autopsy data is profound and strengthens the argument of the role of the COVID mRNA technology gene based injections in myocarditis and death; causal links are strong
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAUG 8 |
end
SLAY NEWS
| Scientist Pushes Plan to Block Sun from Space to Fight ‘Impending Catastrophe of Climate Change’A scientist has unveiled a radical new plan to fight the alleged “impending catastrophe of climate change” by blocking out the Sun from space using a giant “solar shield.”READ MORE |
| Hospital Accused of Sharing Private Patient Data with FacebookA Washington State hospital has been accused of sharing its patients’ private data with social media giant Facebook.READ MORE |
| Democrats Panic as Judge Cannon Overrules Jack Smith: ‘Basically Inviting Trump to Submit Motion to Dismiss Case’Judge Aileen Cannon has struck down two of Special Counsel Jack Smith’s sealed filings in her ruling in President Donald Trump’s document case, sending Democrat legal analysts into a panic.READ MORE |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders Makes History: ‘This Is First Time Arkansas Supreme Court Will Have Conservative Majority’Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders has made history with her appointment of former U.S. Attorney Cody Hiland of Little Rock to the Arkansas Supreme Court. The appointment hands Republicans majority control of the high court for the first time in the state’s history. Hiland will fill the vacancy created by the death of state Supreme Court Justice Robin Wynne. In …READ MORE |
| Jonathan Turley Finds Skeleton in Biden’s Closet, Proves Guilt: ‘Demolished Long Denials of Any Knowledge’Legal scholar Jonathan Turley caught Joe Biden lying to the American public and warned that evidence now proves that the Democrat president is guilty.READ MORE |
| Mitch McConnell Brutally Heckled in Home State with Chants of ‘Retire’ – WATCHSenate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was brutally heckled in his home state of Kentucky at the annual “Fancy Farm Picnic” on Saturday.READ MORE |
| Anheuser-Busch Heir Breaks Silence on Bud Light Debacle: ‘My Ancestors Would Be Rolling Over in Their Graves’An heir to the Anheuser-Busch company said his ancestors would have “rolled in their graves” if they knew the beer company threw it all away over a marketing stunt with a transgender influencer.READ MORE |
| 3 Dead after Two Firefighting Helicopters Collide in CaliforniaTwo firefighting helicopters have collided in California while battling a blaze in Riverside County, according to reports.READ MORE |
| CNN Staffer Dies Suddenly during ‘Medical Emergency’ at New York HeadquartersA longtime CNN staffer has died suddenly after suffering an unexpected “medical emergency” at the network’s New York City headquarters.READ MORE |
| Chinese & Russian Warships Spotted Near Alaska, Triggering Forceful U.S ResponseThe United States military has issued a forceful response after Chinese and Russian naval warships were spotted near Alaska.READ MORE |
| Megan Rapinoe Chokes in Big Moment as US Women’s Soccer Team Eliminated from World CupThe United States Women’s Soccer team has been eliminated from the World Cup after “woke” former co-captain Megan Rapinoe choked in the big moment and blew a penalty kick.READ MORE |
EVOL NEWS
NEWS ADDICTS
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| Pfizer Execs Received ‘Special Batch’ of Vaccine, ‘Different’ to Public ShotsPfizer’s executives were given a “special batch” of vaccine that was different from the Covid shots that were rolled out for public use, a company official has admitted during an explosive testimony.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Donald Trump Gets Last Laugh After Rapinoe Blows Penalty Kick in Shootout Loss, ‘Nice Shot Megan’In a Truth Social post today, former President and 2024 GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump got the last laugh after Megan Rapinoe blew a penalty kick in the USWNT’s shootout loss. Trump reported, “The ‘shocking and totally unexpected’ loss by the U.S. Women’s Soccer Team to Sweden is fully emblematic of what is happening to the our once great Nation …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Judge Rules That Donald Trump Has ‘Presidential Immunity’ on False Election ClaimsA judge in Pennsylvania determined that former President Trump cannot be sued by an election official over statements he made casting suspicion on the 2020 election results during his presidency, due to the protection provided by presidential immunity. Judge Michael Erdos of Philadelphia County Court of Common Pleas ruled that Trump’s immunity extends to a tweet he posted and statements …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Democrat Mayor Faces 30 Years Behind Bars After Pleading Guilty to 140 Counts of Child PornIn a shocking and disturbing case, the Democrat ex-mayor of College Park, Maryland, has pleaded guilty to a staggering 140 counts related to child pornography possession and distribution. As part of a negotiated agreement, the former politician is set to serve a hefty 30-year prison sentence. According to a press release from the Prince George’s County State’s Attorney’s Office, Patrick Wojahn pleaded guilty on Wednesday to a shocking total of 60 counts of distributing child pornography, along with 40 counts each of possessing child pornography with the intention to distribute. “This is a horrific case,” said Aisha Braveboy, state’s attorney of Prince George’s County. “I am truly pleased that Mr. Wojahn has guilty and accepted responsibility for his actions and these horrendous crimes.” “As a former elected official, the College Park community put its faith and support in him to serve each resident and their best interests. Instead, he let them down in a most disgraceful way,” Braveboy continued. “Our children are both precious and vulnerable, deserving of the utmost protection,” the statement said. “The tragedy of them being preyed upon in cases like this cannot be understated.” “I want families in Prince George’s County to rest assured, that we will continue to exhaust every possible effort to ensure their safety and well-being,” Braveboy added. Wojahn, who is openly gay, served as a city council member for eight years before serving as mayor of College Park. He resigned from his position in March, preceding his arrest. “On February 28, 2023, a search warrant was executed on my residence as part of an ongoing police investigation. I have cooperated fully, and will continue to cooperate, with law enforcement,” Wojahn wrote in his resignation letter. “I am stepping away to deal with my own mental health.” The Prince George’s Police Department (PGPD) announced in March that the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children had notified them that a social media account operating in the county possessed and distributed suspected child pornography. “Through various investigative techniques, PGPD investigators discovered the social media account belonged to Wojahn,” the department announced. PGPD detectives served a search warrant at Wojahn’s College Park home on February 28, the statement said. “Investigators recovered multiple cell phones, a storage device, a tablet and a computer,” PGPD noted. It was additionally reported that Wojahn’s Kik account with the child porn videos used the handle “skippy_md.” At the time, Wojahn was charged with 40 counts of possession of child exploitative material and 16 counts of distribution of child exploitative material. Wojahn’s official sentencing has been scheduled for November 20. Share your thoughts by scrolling down to leave a comment.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| U.S. Women’s Soccer Team Eliminated From the World Cup After Megan Rapinoe Blows Penalty KickIn stunning fashion, the United States Women’s Soccer team has been eliminated from the World Cup after former co-captain Megan Rapinoe blew a penalty kick. While the loss cannot be solely put on Rapinoe, who was playing in her last World Cup, the team was up 3-2 in the penalty kicks as she sailed hers wide. The loss to the …READ THE FULL REPORT |
VACCINE IMPACT/
end
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
He is back after a 3 month bout of COVID 19
(Michael Every)
When Even The New York Times Asks “Are We The Bad Guys Here”
TUESDAY, AUG 08, 2023 – 11:05 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
The Pause That Didn’t Refresh
Eagle-eyed readers may notice I haven’t written the Global Daily since May 23. That’s quite the pause, but with Covid pneumonia responsible, it wasn’t one that refreshed. Ironically, ‘The Pause That Doesn’t Refresh’ was my 2023 outlook title, which mocked the market view that early rate cuts loomed, and spoke about the risks of sticky services spending and core inflation, supply destruction in commodities, escalating geopolitical shocks, low unemployment and lingering Covid effects for some (Amen!); larger fiscal deficits; a drive for reindustrialisation; and that when we were expected to have rate cuts (i.e., now, as some said in January) we would still be looking at the risk of further rate hikes – just alongside central-bank policy acronyms to keep things stable. Not a bad take, I think one can say.
In the 11 weeks since May 23, the US S&P is +9.0%, the broad US dollar index is lower, and the Hamburg World Commodity Index +5.7% and +4.5% in July alone. US 2-year yields were 4.26% and are now 4.76% (+50bps), 10s were 3.70% and are now 4.09% (+39bps); in German Bunds, it’s 2.81% vs. 2.96% (+15bps) and 2.46% vs. 2.59% (+13bps); in Australia, 3.52% vs. 3.96% (2s +44bps) and 3.66% vs. 4.19% (10s +53bps); in the UK 4.14% vs. 4.95% (2s +81bps) and 4.14% vs. 4.53% (10s +39bps); and in Japan -0.07% vs 0.02% (2s +9bps) and 0.38% vs. 0.63% (10s +15bps). The focus is now on curve steepening, and whether this will be of the bull (deflation/rate cuts) or bear (no cuts or more hikes/stagflation) variety. As in January and May, most are taking the optimistic view, which is buoying other assets.
However, the only place where that bad is good view is ‘justified’ right now is China, so if you want a pre-2020 lower-for-longer economy, look there. Its 2-year yield has dropped from 2.23% to 2.14% and its 10-year from 2.69% to 2.65%; the Financial Times quotes an auto analyst saying it now produces 40m cars a year, but can only consume 20-25m; trade data today are expected to show imports declining by 5.6% y-o-y, so China ‘boosting global growth’ is factually incorrect, and export growth is seen -13.2%; and tomorrow’s CPI and PPI are both set to print more deeply negative y-o-y. In theory, Western analysts baying for deflation and rate cuts should like this, but they don’t. Talk of a ‘Zombie Economy’ isn’t welcome because said author notes, “a web of Wall Street bankers and corporate executives had reason to suppress more sceptical analyses, as they continued to profit off luring investors into China. The illusion of limitless high-speed growth thus ruled the day at the very moment when the economy entered its most serious crisis since the outset of the market reform era.” Beijing has more understandably also banned negative commentary in its economic, financial media, including the word “deflation”.
Meanwhile, Western central banks are pausing to assess contradictory data, but it remains to be seen if they can truly halt or, more importantly, reverse to previous rate lows. After all, we see:
- An ageing workforce and ultra-low unemployment. The UAW is now demanding a 46% pay deal over four years, airlines face massive labor shortages and pay demands too (‘America’s Truckers, Cargo Pilots and Package Carriers Are Fed Up’), and FedEx pilots are demanding a 30% pay rise. That’s got the decimal place in the wrong place for inflation hawks.
- The US Department of Labor is proposing to today restore the New Deal-era Davis-Bacon Act that sets a wage floor for construction workers on public-works projects, reversing its 1979 gutting by President Carter, and potentially one of the most significant changes to pay in decades. Of course, that means higher, not lower wages. There is an election in 2024 you know!
- There is a need for massive defense spending –percentage points of GDP, not tenths of one percent– in the US, UK, Australia, and even New Zealand, while Canada, like Europe ex-France and Poland, lags dangerously far behind.
- A resulting onshoring/reshoring boom lies beyond the current inventory down-leg of the bullwhip effect is over – look at the surge in US manufacturing construction spending.
- Huge government bond issuance hence comes along with, not a replacement for, private demand for capital.
- The Economist warns ‘The West’s de-risking strategy towards China will fail’: but that means more decoupling and supply shocks than we are being sold by politicians, not less. On friend-shoring, the WSJ warns ‘The Era of Ultracheap Stuff Is Under Threat’ because Asian factories can’t find enough young workers either.
- The US trade and tech war with China is about to become an investment war, with a long-awaited executive order to limit US outbound capital flows likely to be introduced this week. When that starts to happen in both directions, the global architecture will change even more.
- Supply destruction in commodities is underway via war in the Black Sea, possibly West Africa, and always potentially the Middle East; that is as the SCMP reports ‘Mainland China airs documentary signalling military preparation for Taiwan attack and willingness to sacrifice’.
- Supply is also constrained by trade restrictions in oil from Saudi; rice from India; uranium from Niger; nickel from Indonesia and the Philippines; and rare earths from China. More will follow.
- The FT (‘Inconvenient truths about the green transition’) points out that Western green production ex-China will take six years to develop and cost twice as much as it does today, when the bill was already astronomical.
- Entrenched global oligopolies and monopolies most economists refuse to recognize will raise prices whenever they can get away with it – i.e., in times like these.
It’s no surprise then that a market-implied inflation expectation measure, the US 5-year 5-year forward breakeven inflation rate, has again surged to its highest level in over a year at 2.53%, and isn’t far off its mid-2022 peak of 2.57%. More short term, US inflation is going to rise again y-o-y on a headline basis as soon as this Thursday, where CPI is already seen up from 3.0% to 3.3% with only a 0.2% m-o-m print; the base effects then get even less helpful even before higher energy and food prices hit again.
Yes, central banks can then opt to look at core CPI and ignore all of the above – but that is exactly the error they made in the 1970s, and how you move the market dial towards stagflation fears.
Of course, not cutting rates also comes with real risks. The Fed no longer sees a recession ahead, though our US team does, but Bloomberg argues ‘The Euro-Zone Economy Is Set for a Painful Reckoning: ECB rate hikes will trim 4% from economic output, research shows, a hit that will coincide with a return of restraints on public spending’. The German press also reports specialty chemicals group Lanxess plans to close two production plants by 2026 due to high electricity price, adding German industry has enormous disadvantages domestically, so companies are migrating: “De-industrialization begins,” said the Lanxess CEO. “This seriously jeopardizes German prosperity and social security for people in the medium and long term. The federal government had to wake up. We need an economic policy that deserves this name.“ For anyone thinking deindustrialisation is bullish Bunds, because lower growth, think again. Back in February we already conclusively showed what bad, stagflationary outcomes deindustrialization means for Germany. Berlin will no doubt be hoping that today sees Taiwan’s TSMC decide to proceed with a German chip plant, even if this creates frictions with China.
Yet our real problem is that this not just about inflation or rates, which are just painful symptoms, but rather a paradigmatic failure across the political-economy – which we are trying to resolve without addressing political-economy. The more we only write about inflation and rates, the deeper the hole we dig.
Likewise, appointing the Deputy Governor of the RBA, with an A$6m property portfolio, as Governor and holding fewer rate meetings per year is not going to shake the tree; neither is the BOE hiring Ben Bernanke to analyze why it made such large forecast errors – except in that it takes one to know one. These (in)decisions betray not so much a pause as a freeze: they show an establishment frozen like deer in a car’s headlights; or stuck like pigs in a large trough; or as just deeply unimaginative, overpaid civil servants unable to think outside the box.
On the missing political-economy note, the New York Times’ David Brooks just asked ‘What if We’re the Bad Guys Here?’, belatedly grasping the view that the Clinton and Obama Spamalot administrations allowed a new ‘technocratic’ elite to enjoy old Cantillon nest-feathering as others lost their nest-eggs, while still feeling morally superior about their gains because ‘they were the smart ones’; and then the backlash was the Sir-Mix-A-Lot Trump administration; and now Biden’s, which the Financial Times’s Gideon Rachman just called ‘the heir to Trump’. I’m not sure if Brooks knew he was echoing the British comedy duo Mitchell & Webb, who years ago played SS officers asking, “Are we the baddies?” Yet with real-life fears of the Far Right rising, what is Brooks suggesting *we do* specifically? We will be waiting a long time for that punchline, I suspect. However, if you think the answer is to cut rates and or taxes, let assets rip, and ‘allow nature to heal’, then when that punch does finally land, it will hurt all the more.
To make that point, consider ‘Last call for neoliberalism: What I saw at the party at the end of the world order’ from the Canada’s Globe and Mail, whose author notes of a recent glittering New York encounter:
“[The] end of neoliberalism – and the subsequent decay of democracy – were on my mind as Justin Trudeau entered the room at the consul-general’s soirée…. But even as this party was just beginning, everyone seemed to understand that the way things had been done for so long – that party was over.
The outlines of the new order that Mr. Biden’s national security adviser sketched out earlier that afternoon have since come into focus: protections for sensitive industries; de-risking from China; building up domestic capabilities. We need a new industrial strategy for the next century, Washington has made clear – one that recognized that a society was more than its economy, that workers were the lifeblood of democracy, and that foreign policy must ultimately improve the lives of ordinary citizens at home…
Later, I managed to speak with Mr. Trudeau; I gave him a copy of my book, in which he is featured. I also asked him: What could we thinkers and intellectuals do to reinforce democratic principles from outside the system?
Mr. Trudeau stepped back. I saw his eyes darting as he thought of how to respond. It was an honest question, asked in good faith.
Finally, he leaned in and said: “I think you shouldn’t be so cynical about people working on the inside.” Before I could reply, Mr. Trudeau glided away to another group of people.
All my life, I have repudiated cynicism: I had seen elite systems from within, and witnessed the kind of liberal-elite behaviour that had given people so much reason for pessimism. Yet I still retained my ability to hope. I did not think there was anything cynical about expecting leaders to live up to their own stated principles, or about acknowledging the reasons that others – including many young people – were becoming despondent about the state of the world. Indeed, it would be up to citizens on the inside and outside of government to ensure democracy was upheld and progress was shared. If the Prime Minister really thought my question was cynical, in this pivotal moment of transition – these dying days of neoliberalism – I am deeply worried about what comes next.”
And now I need a pause to recharge my fading battery, and I suspect many of you are feeling far from refreshed.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
Kiev attacks Russian oil exports
(zerohedge)
Oil Reaction Surprisingly Muted As Kiev Expands Conflict With Attacks On Russian Oil Exports
MONDAY, AUG 07, 2023 – 03:05 PM
As Bloomberg Markets live commentator Jake Lloyd-Smith writes this morning, oil’s had “a curiously muted reaction” to the latest twist in the war in Ukraine, with Brent getting only a small lift before trading flat and then dipping into the red.
For those who missed the latest news, on Saturday a Russian oil tanker was hit by a Ukrainian sea drone in the Kerch Strait. In addition, on Friday, Ukraine attacked a Russian naval ship with a sea drone in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
Kiev recently said that it had designated six Black Sea ports – a vital conduit for its crude – as being in “war risk” areas, indicating that there could be further attacks on Russian territory.
As Academy Securities reports, “Ukraine’s goal in attacking the tanker was to increase insurance costs for Russia’s partners that are buying oil and shipping it out of those ports, which raises the true cost of buying “discounted” Russian oil and hurts Russia financially.“
The number of attacks in the Black Sea by both Ukraine and Russia have increased since Moscow terminated the grain deal last month that had allowed Ukraine to continue to export grain to alleviate the global food crisis.
With Ukraine’s land-based counteroffensive making no progress in the latest humiliation to NATO forces which are waging war against Russia by Ukraine proxy, Kiev is now looking to expand the conflict into the Black Sea and even into Moscow where Ukrainian drones attacked buildings last week; indeed, as Ukraine’s defense ministry said in a Saturday post that “Two can play that game” in response to Russian attacks on Ukraine grain infrastructure.
And, as we first noted late Friday…
… for the first time, the attacks put at risk Russia’s commodity exports via the Black Sea, a route that accounts for most of the grain and 15% to 20% of the oil that Russia sells daily on global markets. Significantly higher insurance and shipping costs are likely to follow for Moscow, but there are risks to European and global markets, too.
Taken together, all this represents an important escalation. The spike in military activity comes as crude has recorded six consecutive weekly gains.
That’s why Lloyd-Smith cautions that despite today’s muted reaction, “oil prices are set for gains this week as more details of the shift become clear, and as traders factor the latest set of risks into outlooks that already looked positive. “
The recent oil rally was spurred by Saudi Arabia and Moscow extending voluntary supply cuts; expectations of oil deficits as large as 2mmb/d barrels in the coming months…
… as US inventories last week sunk by a weekly record; and reports that global demand is at a record high. Expect further validation of the bullish story later this week, when both the IEA and OPEC weigh in with revisions to their market outlooks, while in the US, the Energy Information Administration will present its Short-Term Energy Outlook as well.
Bottom line: there’s plenty of headline risk here, on top of any developments on the battlefield, and traders are rapidly preparing to take advantage of the coming price spike: according to the latest CFTC data, money managers posted further increases in bullish bets for most oil products last week, the highest since April while WTI outright longs were the highest since July last year……
… oil products Net Managed Money surged by 30mb this week, stood at 66 percentile
… and ICE gasoil net-longs hit the biggest since May 2022.
Meanwhile, Nymex gasoline net-bullish positions hit the highest since February last year.
END
India scoops up its cheapest Russian oil yet
(Kennedy/OilPrice.com)
India Scoops Up Cheapest Russian Oil Since Start Of Ukraine War
TUESDAY, AUG 08, 2023 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,
India’s crude oil imports from Russia in June were the cheapest since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, during which time the world’s third-largest oil importer became a key Russian oil customer alongside China.
The average cost of a barrel of Russian crude that landed at India’s ports in June was at $68.17, per data from India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry cited by Bloomberg.
The price exceeds the $60 price cap set by the G7, but the cap does not include shipping.
Most of India’s purchases of Russian crude oil are being done on a delivered basis inclusive of freight, insurance, and other costs.
To compare, India paid $70.17 on average per barrel of Russian crude in May and $100.48 a barrel in June 2022, according to the data.
International crude oil prices were lower in June compared to July and early August amid concerns about the global economy and the uneven Chinese recovery after the end of the Covid restrictions.
But prices have rallied in recent weeks as hopes have grown of a soft landing of the U.S. economy. Analysts and traders expect the supply cuts by OPEC+ and the unilateral output and export reductions from Saudi Arabia and Russia, respectively, to tighten the market for the rest of the year.
India’s crude oil imports from Russia dropped in July and could be headed to a more significant decline in August, to the lowest since January this year, according to Kpler.
In July, crude imports from Russia into India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, dropped to 2.09 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 2.11 million bpd in the previous month, Viktor Katona, head of crude analysis at Kpler, told Bloomberg last week.
This month, India’s crude oil imports could further decline and fall to 1.6 million bpd, Katona added. If the projection is correct, India’s imports of Russian oil in August could drop to their lowest level since January 2023.
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
HAITI
Haiti is now overrun. USA shutters their embassy as gangs control Port au Prince
(zerohedge)
US Shutters Haiti Embassy Amid “Rapid Gunfire” As Armed Gangs Have Run Of The Capital
TUESDAY, AUG 08, 2023 – 10:10 AM
Haiti’s problems have gone from bad to worse after years of political instability, raging gang violence, kidnapping, food and medicine shortages, and the outbreak of deadly diseases like cholera.
Many thousands of Haitians have flooded the streets of Port-au-Prince this week, angry over the lack of security or any rule of law in crime-ridden neighborhoods across the impoverished Caribbean nation. But Tuesday saw further escalation in violence, as rapid gunfire was heard coming from the crowd and in the vicinity, causing the US and other foreign embassy’s to close operations.Image source: Miami Herald
“The Embassy is closed today. All personnel are restricted to Embassy compounds until further notice due to gunfire in the vicinity of the Embassy. Travel between the compounds is prohibited,” the embassy said in a new statement.
The US Embassy warned further that anyone seeking to get to or from the embassy could have the security of routes “impacted due to continued rapid gunfire.”
CBS and other outlets have described an escalating situation in which “ceaseless violence at the hands of gangs” has resulted in angry crowds demanding some semblance of security from both national and international officials.
Cries of “we want security!” were heard from the crowd, many with their faces masked, amid burning tires and vehicles, tear gas, and running street clashes.
Some sources estimate that armed gangs control up to 80% of the capital city, and police are powerless to protect residents…
Meanwhile, as for potential solutions, the United Nations has debated for the past year a proposal to send an international police-keeping force, but not particular nation – including the United States – wants to be seen as spearheading it given the controversy accompanying past such interventions.
Not only would the ongoing chaos and violence pose a serious risk to UK peacekeeping troops, but the West’s legacy of colonialism would once again be under a microscope.
Most recently, Kenya proposed that it could send its own troops, but again, few UN officials have the political will to see it through given there are so many “unknowns” and ways it could exacerbate an already spiraling situation:
After Primer Minister Ariel Henry urged the world in October to deploy an armed force to fight the gangs, the United Nations has struggled to convince a nation to lead efforts to restore the order in the Caribbean country, in part due to past controversy over peacekeeping missions. There’s been little appetite for a U.S.- or U.N.-led force, and the United States unsuccessfullt tried to persuade Canada to lead a force.
With this fresh violence and gunfire, it’s very possible the U.S. embassy could shutter permanently, given that late last month there was already an evacuation order given for all ‘non-essential’ embassy staff and their families. All Americans were also advised to leave Haiti immediately.
Just over a week ago, two American citizens were reported kidnapped. “An American nurse and her daughter have been abducted in Haiti, in the latest kidnapping episode to draw international notice, as a resurgence of violence grips the capital, Port-au-Prince,” wrote The Washington Post.
“In a brief statement on Saturday, El Roi Haiti, a faith-focused humanitarian organization, identified the woman as Alix Dorsainvil, the group’s community nurse and the wife of the group’s director. She and her child were taken from El Roi’s campus near the capital on Thursday, according to the statement,” the report added.
Human Rights Watch says that over 1,000 people have been kidnapped by criminal gangs so far this year alone – and these are just the “known” cases.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0942 DOWN 0.0062
USA/ YEN 142.97 UP 0.419 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2703 DOWN 0.0078
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3470 UP .0099 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 99 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 8.21 PTS OR 0.25%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 353.75 PTS OR 1.81%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.01 % // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN DOWN 353.75 PTS OR 1.81%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.21 PTS OR .25%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.01%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 122.73 PTS OR 0.38%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1930.00
silver:$22.97
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 102.48 UP 62 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.188% DOWN 13 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.611% DOWN 0 AND 1//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.500 DOWN 13 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.131 DOWN 12 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.465 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0943 DOWN 0.0060 or 50 basis points
USA/Japan: 143.20 UP 0.669 OR YEN DOWN 67 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2713 DOWN 0.0067 OR 67 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0097 OR 97 BASIS pts to 1.3467
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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.2195
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.464)
TURKISH LIRA: 27.02 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.611…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 6 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.016% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.180 DOWN 8 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates TUESDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 29.06 points or 0.36%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 175.83 PTS OR 1.10%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 50.29 PTS OR 0.69%
Spain IBEX DOWN 56.80 PTS OR 0.61%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 605.36 PTS OR 2/12%
WTI Oil price 81.79 12: EST
Brent Oil: 85.26 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 97.05; ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 77//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.465 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.436 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0959 DOWN 0.0044 OR 44 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2747 DOWN .0024 or 24 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.427 % DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .592%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 143.42 UP 0.885 //YEN DOWN 89 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3414 UP .0043 CDN dollar, DOWN 43 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 80.02
Brent OIL: 86.16
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 6 BASIS pts to 4.014%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 7 BASIS PTS to 4.183%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT 4.751%
USA dollar index: 102.33 UP 47 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.01 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 97.10 DOWN 1 AND 83/100 roubles
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 158.65 PTS OR 0.75%
NASDAQ 100 DOWN 134.81 PTS OR 0.87%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 16,02 UP 0.25 PTS (1.59)%
GLD: $178.64 DOWN 1.14 OR 0.63%
SLV/ $20.50 DOWN ,31 OR 1.44%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:
Quartet Of Carnage Crushes Stocks; Bonds, Bitcoin, & Black Gold Bid
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, AUG 08, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Futures suffered a quartet of carnage into today’s US open included a disappointing night of economically-sensitive EPS prints (UPS, CBT, CE, IFF); Chinese trade data bombed, with exports showing the worst decline (-14.5% YoY in July) since Feb 2020, while imports too were crunched (-12.4%) – reflecting weak domestic demand, and iterating ongoing issues with lack of consumption and investment growth in China; Italy’s surprise windfall profits tax on banks has spooked EUR banks and broad index; and Moody’s cuts 10 US banks (including “super regionals” Capital One, PNC Financial Services Group and Fifth Third Bancorp) on the increased cost of funding and office exposure.
But apart from that, everything is awesome in Bidenomics-land… as ‘hope’ leads (‘soft’ survey data rising as ‘hard’ economic data slides)…
Source: Bloomberg
FedSpeak was ‘on message’ – high(er) for long(er)…
0820ET *HARKER: FED MAY BE AT THE POINT WHERE IT CAN HOLD RATES STEADY, FED WILL NEED TO HOLD RATES STEADY FOR A WHILE
0855ET *FED’S BARKIN SAYS INFLATION REMAINS TOO HIGH
The result – all the US majors were in the red today. The equity indices were dumped at the US cash open then staged a recovery after Europe closed…Nasdaq was the biggest loser on the day…
After the gap-down open, a short-squeeze was engineered once again…
Source: Bloomberg
AAPL managed to bounce back into the green today, ending the 5-day losing streak. We note that AAPL found support tosay at its 100DMA (having broken below its 50-DMA last week)…
0-DTE traders faded the afternoon bounce in the market again…
Italian banks were clubbed like baby seals…
Source: Bloomberg
In the US, Regional banks puked on the downgrades but bounced back after a weak open…
VIX (and VVIX) pumped-and-dumped today, following a similar pattern to the last few days. VIX topped 18 intraday and VVIX remains “stressed” in the 90-100 range…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury bonds were bid across the curve but the long-end outperformed (as the curve bull-flattened)…
Source: Bloomberg
10Y yields fell back below 4.00% intraday
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar rallied hard overnight – back up to June and July’s Payroll print levels – before fading back.
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin ramped up towards $30,000 (again) today, after sitting around $29,000 for a week…
Source: Bloomberg
Another crazy day for crude with WTI dumping and pumping (back up to $83)…
Gold fell back to Friday’s spike lows…
Finally, it does have the feeling that we are close to a ‘sell the news’ moment in the AI-bubble…
Can history really repeat?
b) THIS MORNING TRADING//
Bank Stocks Slide After Moody’s Cuts Ratings On ‘Triple Whammy’ Of Factors
TUESDAY, AUG 08, 2023 – 09:35 AM
Higher funding costs, potential regulatory capital weaknesses and rising risks tied to commercial real estate loans amid weakening demand for office space were the triple whammy of factors that prompted Moody’s to lower credit ratings for 10 small and midsize US banks; and noted in a slew of notes that it may downgrade major lenders.
“Collectively, these three developments have lowered the credit profile of a number of US banks, though not all banks equally,” the ratings agency wrote in some of the assessments.
Firms that had ratings cut included M&T Bank Corp., Webster Financial Corp., BOK Financial Corp., Old National Bancorp, Pinnacle Financial Partners Inc., and Fulton Financial Corp.
Northern Trust Co. and Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc. are also under review for downgrades.
Moody’s also adopted a “negative” outlook for 11 lenders, including PNC Financial Services Group, Capital One Financial Corp., Citizens Financial Group Inc., Fifth Third Bancorp, Regions Financial Corp., Ally Financial Inc., Bank OZK and Huntington Bancshares Inc.
The S&P Regional Bank Index is down around 3% in the early market…
But in context…
Despite Washington (and Wall St) going to great lengths to restore confidence, Moody’s warned that banks with substantial unrealized losses that are not captured by their regulatory capital ratios may still be susceptible to sudden losses of market or consumer confidence in a high interest rate environment.
“Rising funding costs and declining income metrics will erode profitability, the first buffer against losses,” Moody’s wrote in a separate note explaining the moves.
“Asset risk is rising, in particular for small and midsize banks with large CRE exposures.”
“U.S. banks continue to contend with interest rate and asset-liability management (ALM) risks with implications for liquidity and capital, as the wind-down of unconventional monetary policy drains system-wide deposits and higher interest rates depress the value of fixed-rate assets,” Moody’s analysts Jill Cetina and Ana Arsov said in the accompanying research note.
“Meanwhile, many banks’ Q2 results showed growing profitability pressures that will reduce their ability to generate internal capital. This comes as a mild U.S. recession is on the horizon for early 2024 and asset quality looks set to decline from solid but unsustainable levels, with particular risks in some banks’ commercial real estate (CRE) portfolios.”
Finally, Moody’s warns of more pain to come:
“We continue to expect a mild recession in early 2024, and given the funding strains on the U.S. banking sector, there will likely be a tightening of credit conditions and rising loan losses for U.S. banks.”
And cue the “financial system is resilient as ever” comments and dismay at the ‘downgrade’ from The Fed/TSY.
end
Special thanks to G. for sending this to us
(zerohedge)
M&T Bank, Pinnacle and Commerce Bancshares Stocks Drop After Moody’s Downgrades Regional Banks
, Reporter
M&T Bank was among lenders downgraded by Moody’s. (Brendan McDermid/Reuters)
Moody’s Investors Service cut the credit ratings of 10 U.S. regional banks and said it was reviewing the ratings of six other institutions, pointing to lower profits and higher funding costs.
Shares of M&T Bank (MTB), Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP) and Commerce Bancshares (CBSH)—among the banks Moody’s downgraded—were all down 3% or more in morning trading. All the cuts were by a single notch, and all the banks remained investment-grade.
Moody’s is reviewing its ratings on six others, including Bank of New York Mellon (BK), Northern Trust (NTRS), State Street (STT) and US Bancorp (USB), and has assigned a negative outlook to 11 more lenders.
The Moody’s action suggests the U.S. banking sector remains vulnerable to the problems that stirred a banking panic and brought down several smaller lenders, including Silicon Valley Bank, earlier this year. Those challenges include devalued bonds, jittery investors, customer-deposit withdrawals and higher funding costs.
The Federal Reserve’s campaign to lift interest rates to combat inflation “continues to have a material impact on the US banking system’s funding and its economic capital,” Moody’s said.
Higher rates have continued to reduce the value of bonds and other assets owned by regional banks, leaving the lenders with “sizeable unrealized losses” and vulnerable to share-price drops if investors get spooked, Moody’s said.
Meanwhile, customers have been shifting cash into accounts that pay higher interest, driving up banks’ costs and eroding their profitability. “There remains a significant risk that systemwide deposits will resume their decline in coming quarters,” Moody’s said.
The ratings firm also pointed to the prospect of a recession in early 2024 eroding demand for loans and leading to loan defaults. And it said banks could be hit by problems in commercial real estate, including higher interest rates, vacant offices due to the shift toward remote work, and reduced availability of credit.
Moody’s downgraded the following banks:
Commerce Bancshares (CBSH)
BOK Financial (BOKF)
M&T Bank (MTB)
Old National Bancorp (ONB)
Prosperity Bancshares (PB)
Amarillo National Bancorp
Webster Financial (WBS)
Fulton Financial (FULT)
Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP)
Associated Banc-Corp (ASB)
end
II) USA DATA/
This looks good but is actually bad news for the uSA as declining imports are a warning sign of a declining economy
(MarketWatch)
U.S. trade deficit falls again. Declining imports may be a warning sign.
8:45 a.m. ET
MarketWatch
U.S. trade gap on track to fall in 2023 for the first time in four years
The U.S. trade deficit fell 4% in June to $65.5 billion due to declining imports, reflecting a shift in consumer spending habits as well as a slump in global manufacturing.
The trade gap dropped $2.8 billion from $68.3 billion in May.
The deficit has fallen by more than one-third since hitting a record high in the spring of 2022. While lower deficits are a positive for gross domestic product, they can also be a sign of a weakening U.S. or global economy.
Key details: Imports slid 1% to $253 billion in June, marking the third decline in a row. The U.S. imported fewer computers, industrial supplies and oil.
U.S. imports of goods have tumbled 13% from a record high in March 2022.
Exports slipped a scant 0.1% last month to $247.5 billion. The U.S. shipped less oil and fewer pharmaceutical drugs.
The trade deficit with China fell $2.1 billion to $22.8 billion in June and is on track to be much lower compared with a year ago.
The gap with China totaled $142 billion in the first six months of 2023 versus $216 billion in the same period in 2022.
High trade tensions between the U.S. and China and efforts by global manufacturers to reduce their reliance on China have made a big dent in the deficit between the two countries.
Big picture: Big changes in the trade deficit often reflect disruptions in the U.S. or world economies.
Falling imports, for example, appear concentrated in manufacturing. U.S. and foreign manufacturers — aside from automakers — have suffered a drop in demand amid a shift in consumer spending toward services and away from goods.
Exports have also fallen, but not by quite as much.
The U.S. has benefited from a rebound in tourism, which counts as an export, as well as strength in other services, such as finance.
Looking ahead: “We expect depressed trade flows through the remainder of the year and a sustained recovery in 2024 after the U.S. exits a mild recession,” said Matthew Martin, U.S. economist at Oxford Economics
end
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Office delinquencies accelerate which will lead to a plung in values! A must read!
(zerohedge)
CRE Turmoil Worsens As Office Delinquencies Accelerate
MONDAY, AUG 07, 2023 – 04:40 PM
Readers have been well informed about the deteriorating state of the commercial real estate sector, with reports from major banks showing a downturn amid high-interest rates and tightened credit, which has pushed up borrowing costs and forced a rise in defaults.
The latest data from Trepp, which tracks commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) securities market data, shows the delinquency rate of commercial property loans packaged up by Wall Street jumped again in July, with four of the five major property segments posting increases.
“While the rest of the US economy has seen relief in terms of higher equity prices, better-than-expected corporate earnings, and falling inflation numbers, the commercial real estate (CRE) market continues to be left behind,” Trepp wrote in the report.
Trepp data found the delinquency rate rose 51 basis points to 4.41% last month — the highest level since December 2021. Office delinquencies increased by 46 basis points to 4.96% — up more than 350 basis points since the end of 2022. The deterioration in the office segment is intensifying at an alarmingly rapid pace.
A broad overview of the US CMBS market shows the delinquency rate increased to 4.41%, a 51bps rise compared to the previous month, but still significantly lower than the 10.34% rate recorded in July 2012. The rate peaked at 10.32% in June 2020 during the government-forced Covid lockdowns.
Here are more highlights from the report:
- Year over year, the overall US CMBS delinquency rate is up 135 basis points.
- Year to date, the rate is up 137 basis points.
- The percentage of loans that are seriously delinquent (60+ days delinquent, in foreclosure, REO, or non-performing balloons) is now 3.92%, up 20 basis points for the month.
- If defeased loans were taken out of the equation, the overall headline delinquency rate would be 4.64%, up 51 basis points from June.
- One year ago, the US CMBS delinquency rate was 3.06%.
- Six months ago, the US CMBS delinquency rate was 2.94%.
To better understand what might come next for the CRE market, Kiran Raichura, Capital Economics’ deputy chief property economist, recently warned in a note to clients that the office segment might experience a 35% plunge in values by the second half 2025 and “is unlikely to be recovered even by 2040.”
According to swipe data from Kastle Systems, the US office occupancy rate is less than 50%. The figure has plateaued since September, indicating a new reality of remote work.
One major hurdle for CRE space is that “more than 50% of the $2.9 trillion in commercial mortgages will need to be renegotiated in the next 24 months when new lending rates are likely to be up by 350 to 450 basis points,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, wrote in a note to clients.
Shalett expects a “peak-to-trough CRE price decline of as much as 40%, worse than in the Great Financial Crisis.”
Bank of America analysts expect challenges in the CRE space but noted, “They are manageable and do not represent a systemic risk to the US economy.”
Meanwhile, analysts at UBS warned:
“About $1.3 billion of office mortgage loans are currently slated to mature over the next three years.
“It’s possible that some of these loans will need to be restructured, but the scope of the issue pales in comparison to the more than $2 trillion of bank equity capital. Office exposure for banks represents less than 5% of total loans and just 1.9% on average for large banks.”
We’ve already seen major building owners returning their office towers and malls to lenders in California (here & here) and elsewhere (here). This will result in an uptick in CMBS delinquencies moving forward.
… and remember what we wrote during the regional bank crisis earlier this year — the note was titled “Nowhere To Hide In CMBS”: CRE Nuke Goes Off With Small Banks Accounting For 70% Of Commercial Real Estate Loans.
END
BALTIMORE/CRE
A mess!! Plummeting values on buildings is creating a CRE panic
(zerohedge)
Baltimore Sun Editorial Board Tells Everyone ‘Keep Calm’ Amid CRE Panic
TUESDAY, AUG 08, 2023 – 06:55 AM
Days ago, the editorial board of The Baltimore Sun, Maryland’s largest general-circulation daily newspaper, published an article titled “Drop in downtown Baltimore real estate values not a crisis — yet,” which comes immediately after we shined a spotlight on crashing office tower prices:
- Beginning Of CRE Firesale? Baltimore Office Tower Dumped At 63% Discount
- CRE Panic Hits Baltimore As Second Office Tower Dumped At 69% Discount
The op-ed attempts to downplay the CRE earthquake in the Inner Harbor business district, citing Maryland Comptroller Brooke Lierman, the state’s chief tax collector, who said, “It’s not time to panic.”
However, CRE turmoil is underway after the recent firesales, and a wave of building owners are expected to file assessment appeals and unleash a “potential domino effect that continually diminishes the central business district’s tax base and puts further strain on the commercial market,” Michael L. Higgs, director of the State Department of Assessments and Taxation, told the Baltimore Business Journal in June.
Months before the CRE panic hit the Inner Harbor in June, we provided readers with an April note titled “Entire Downtown Is Effectively Dead:” Baltimore City Descends Further Into Turmoil — laying out the downtown district was full of shuttered shops, and vacant office building.
Some say hybrid and remote work killed the Inner Harbor economy. Still, it could be a combination of that, and companies no longer want any parts of the crime-ridden business district following progressive city leaders failing to enforce law and order. It’s not our opinion; it’s the businesses that are actively searching for new office space outside the city who have conveyed this to us.
Republican State Del. Nino Mangione from Baltimore County pointed out that the issues with CRE in the Inner Harbor stem from a mix of remote work and a surge in violent crime:
“Yes, we all understand the current challenges post-Covid with commercial real estate, however I believe this current spiral of downtown values is directly tied as well to the continued increase in violent crime in Baltimore. Many businesses are reluctant to locate in Baltimore because they do not feel their employees or property are safe. Very simply, unless and until citizens and businesses feel safe, these values will continue to decrease. The leadership of Baltimore needs to take crime seriously and take steps to end violent crime. This is their responsibility, and they need to implement harsher punishment policies dealing with violent crimes extending to juvenile crimes as well. We are too busy making excuses and failing to support police rather than punishing violent offenders. You cannot have a great city when violent crime remains unchecked.”
Meanwhile, the editorial board hedges itself at the end by saying, “None of this is to suggest that falling downtown property values should be taken lightly.” But wait a minute. They cited earlier in the op-ed a state official who said, “It’s not time to panic.” Confusing.
Perhaps the editorial board is trying to instill calm because the last thing Democratic Mayor Brandon Scott needs for the imploding metro area just north of the White House is another crisis.
end
Consumers finally crack; a huge drop in June credit card debt as consumers try and pay off their debt,
(zerohedge)
Consumers Finally Crack: Shocking Drop In June Credit Card Debt Marks End Of Spending Binge
MONDAY, AUG 07, 2023 – 03:33 PM
Two months ago when both revolving credit (i.e., credit card debt) and interest charged on credit cards hit a record high, we said that this trajectory was unsustainable and it was only a matter of time before the debt-funded US consumer hit a brick wall. One month later, the first brick wall was hit, when in May US consumer credit grew by a paltry $7.24BN, down more than 50% from the downward revised $20.3BN in April; and while revolving credit posted a healthy increase of $8.5 billion, the shocker was in the non-revolving segment, also known as student and auto loans, and which unexpectedly dropped by $1.3 billion, the first negative print since April 2020
Amusingly, in our commentary last month we also said that “with non-revolving credit now shrinking, the final straw will be the reversal in (record) credit card debt. With credit card interest rates also at a record 22.16%, we won’t have long to wait.”
We were right as we had to wait just one month, because fast forwarding to today’s release of the latest Fed consumer credit report at 3pm ET, moments ago we had another shocker, this time on the other side of the credit spectrum, because while non-revolving credit jumped by a whopping $18.5 billion, up from last month’s drop (which was revised to a tiny positive print this time) a jump which will promptly reverse once the student loan repayment moratorium ends on Sept 1…
… it was the revolving credit that was the jawdropper this month, because after several months of solid increases, including a near-record $14.8 billion in April, in June credit card debt actually dropped by $0.6 billion – the first negative print since April 2021 when the US consumer was still in shock from the post-covid reality and was aggressively saving money, money which has now been long spent – as Americans actively paid down their debt, something they only do when a recession looms!
Needless to say, a drop in revolving credit is a stunner because outside of a crisis, this is usually indicative of an end-of-cycle recession, when US consumers – traditionally responsible for 70% of US GDP with their debt-fueled purchases – go into hibernation and start to repay their bloated credit card bills, which as of today are accruing a mindblowing 22% average interest (see below).
Adding across these two categories, the total June consumer credit print was +$17.85BN which as noted above, was entirely thanks to the $18.5BN increase in non-revolving (student and auto loans) credit.
Drilling deeper into the non-revolving credit print reveals that not all is well here either, because while in Q2 auto loans increased by a healthy, if hardly, blockbuster $17.6 billion (to be expected when rates on 60-month auto loans are at all time high), student loans actually shrank by $9.1 billion, the first decline since Q2 2022, and at a time when most student borrowers are still in forebearance.
And once repayment of student loans resumes by mandate in two months, watch out below.
Meanwhile, with average credit card interest rates rising above 22% to a new record high…
… this month’s drop in credit card debt was just the beginning…
END
As expected, with the rise in 5 to 30 year interest rates has caused mortgage payments to rise by 20%
(zerohedge)
Typical US Mortgage Payment Is Up 20% From Last Year But Home Prices Keep Rising Due To Plunging Supply
MONDAY, AUG 07, 2023 – 07:20 PM
The US housing market may be staging a powerful recovery – if one only goes by homebuilders record prices and certainly not the highest mortgage rates in 40 years – but it’s not because affordability is getting any better. On the contrary: according to Redfin, the typical homebuyer’s monthly mortgage payment was $2,605 during the four weeks ending July 30, up 19% from a year earlier and down just $32 from early July’s all-time high (with the 10Y blowing out, it’s just a matter of time before we hit a fresh record).
This means that housing payments remain historically high because mortgage rates remain elevated, with weekly average rates clocking in at 6.9% this week, and yet home prices continue to rise. Paradoxically, the median home-sale price is up 3.2% year over year, the biggest increase since November.
Needless to say, the renewed rise in prices are not due to the increase in mortgage rates but largely due to the persistent lack of supply…
… with inventory posting its biggest drop in 18 months as homeowners grasp onto low rates. Here’s Redfin:
Home prices are increasing because of the mismatch between supply and demand. High mortgage rates have pushed many would-be sellers out of the market, with homeowners hanging onto their relatively low rates. The total number of homes for sale is down 19%, the biggest drop in a year and a half, and new listings are down 21%.
Yes, high rates are also sidelining prospective buyers, but ironically not as much as they’re deterring would-be sellers, who are holding on to rates achieved during the last refi – most in the 4% or lower bracket – and are loath to take out a new mortgage with a 6 or 7 handle. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index, which measures early-stage demand through requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents, is down just 4% from a year ago.
Some more leading indicators of homebuying activity from Redfin:
- For the week ending August 3, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.9%, slightly higher than a week earlier but slightly lower than the half-year high hit three weeks earlier. The daily average was 7.2% on August 3.
- Mortgage-purchase applications during the week ending July 28 declined 3% from a week earlier, seasonally adjusted. Purchase applications were down 26% from a year earlier.
- The seasonally adjusted Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index–a measure of requests for home tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents–was down 4% from a month earlier, and down 4% from a year earlier.
- Google searches for “homes for sale” were up essentially flat from a month earlier during the week ending July 29, and down about 16% from a year earlier.
- Touring activity as of July 28 was up 8% from the start of the year, compared with a 5% decrease at the same time last year, according to home tour technology company ShowingTime.
And a summary of the data based on homes listed and/or sold during the period:
- The median home sale price was $380,250, up 3.2% from a year earlier. That’s the biggest increase since November.
- Sale prices increased most in Miami (12.7% YoY), Cincinnati (9%), Milwaukee (8.6%), Anaheim, CA (8.5%) and West Palm Beach, FL (8.4%).
- Home-sale prices declined in 19 metros, with the biggest drops in Austin, TX (-9.9% YoY), Phoenix (-4.2%), Detroit (-3.9%), Las Vegas (-3.5%) and Fort Worth, TX (-3.2%).
- The median asking price of newly listed homes was $387,223, up 1.7% from a year earlier.
- The monthly mortgage payment on the median-asking-price home was $2,605 at a 6.9% mortgage rate, the average for the week ending August 3. That’s down about 1% ($32) from the record high hit three weeks earlier, but up 19% from a year earlier.
- Pending home sales were down 14.4% year over year, continuing a year-plus streak of double-digit declines.
- Pending home sales fell in all but two of the metros Redfin analyzed. They declined most in Providence, RI (-29.5% YoY), Newark, NJ (-28.8%), Warren, MI (-26.4%), Boston (-26.3%) and Cincinnati (-25.1%). They increased 3.5% in Las Vegas and were flat in Austin.
- New listings of homes for sale fell 21.3% year over year. That’s a substantial decline, but the smallest in three months.
- New listings declined in all metros Redfin analyzed. They fell most in Las Vegas (-43.4% YoY), Phoenix (-39.7%), Providence, RI (-32%), Sacramento, CA (-31.9%) and Oakland, CA (-30.7%).
- Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) dropped 19% from a year earlier, the biggest drop since February 2022. Active listings were down slightly from a month earlier; typically, they post month-over-month increases at this time of year.
- Months of supply—a measure of the balance between supply and demand, calculated by the number of months it would take for the current inventory to sell at the current sales pace—was 2.9 months, the highest level since April. Four to five months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.
- 43.7% of homes that went under contract had an accepted offer within the first two weeks on the market, up from 42% a year earlier.
- Homes that sold were on the market for a median of 27 days, up from 23 days a year earlier.
- 35.9% of homes sold above their final list price, down from 43% a year earlier.
- On average, 5.8% of homes for sale each week had a price drop, down from 6.3% a year earlier.
- The average sale-to-list price ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their final asking prices, was 100%. That’s down from 100.7% a year earlier.
Source: Redfin
end
This is what we are facing
(Victor Davis Hanson)
Victor Davis Hanson: The Radical Remaking Of America
MONDAY, AUG 07, 2023 – 07:00 PM
Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,
We are in the midst of one of the most radical revolutions in American history. It is as far-reaching and dangerous as the turbulent years of the 1850s and 1860s or the 1930s. Every aspect of American life and culture is under assault, including the very processes by which we govern ourselves, and the manner in which we live.
The Revolution began under the Obama administration that sought to divide Americans into oppressed and oppressors, and then substitute race for class victimization. It was empowered by the bicoastal wealth accrued from globalization, and honed during the COVID lockdown, quarantine-fed economic downturn, and the George Floyd riots and their aftermath. The Revolution was boosted by fanatic opposition to the presidency of Donald Trump. And the result is an America that is unrecognizable from what it was a mere decade ago.
Here are 10 upheavals that the Left has successfully wrought.
1. Free expression.
In large swatches of American society—particularly the corporation, the media, the government, the public schools, and the university—it is suddenly dangerous to speak freely. At a DEI workshop, politely object that “whiteness” does not account for all the challenges of “marginalized peoples,” and you will become either ostracized, reprimanded, or perhaps fired.
Suggest to a class that man-made climate change and the state remedies for it, are still under debate—and your career and livelihood are endangered. In 2020, state that Covid lockdowns would do more eventual damage than the virus—and your career was through. Express doubt that there are more than two biological sexes, and if an athlete or high school principal you will be shunned or rendered professionally inert.
The government, in league with social media, censors the news. “Liberal” universities often first require McCarthy-era type “diversity” statements for one to be hired. Commissars review syllabi to spot incorrect or improper speech or insufficient DEI zeal.
The Left now seeks to modify the First Amendment, and its empowerment of “hate speech,” defined as most anything impeding the progressive project. The state and the universities properly issue word lists of approved vocabularies.
The old ACLU or Sen. Church Committee would now probably be deemed rightwing. The methodologies of Joseph McCarthy and J. Edgar Hoover are the preferred models, once they were rebooted to the right cause.
2. The Weaponization of Justice.
Administrations and their efforts to stock the justice department with supporters come and go. But in the last decade the Left has viewed the Department of Justice as a political extension of the party—whose unchecked power must properly be directed to hurt enemies and help friends. No wonder Eric Holder described himself as Obama’s “wingman” and became the first Attorney General to be held in contempt for ignoring a congressional subpoena.
Never in U.S. history have the Department of Justice and sympathetic state and local prosecutors indicted a leading opposition candidate and likely nominee of one of the two major parties, and at the beginning of a presidential campaign. Donald Trump is currently charged with nearly 100 felonies by at least two prosecutors. He likely eventually will be hit with more than- 500 indictments, from four prosecutors, every one of the latter with a long record of either leftwing associations or Democratic service.
The mass murderer Charles Manson faced less legal exposure. No one believes Trump would have been indicted on such counts—most of them involving allegations from years past—were he not running for President.
One count that Donald Trump is not charged with is bribery, or taking money while in office, a crime cited as impeachable in the Constitution and germane to the accusations that Joe Biden and his family raked in millions from foreign governments due to the improper use of his prior Vice Presidency. For what reason did Joe Biden lie that he never discussed his son’s business? Why did Hunter complain to his daughter that Joe demanded half of his own grifting income? Why would a Vice President serially call disreputable American grifters and foreign corrupt oligarchs? Can Joe’s lifestyle ever be reconciled with his reported income?
Given such asymmetry in the application of the laws, conservative or even apolitical Americans are apprehensive that any political prominence will draw the attention of government in effort to either indict or bankrupt them with legal expenses.
The last four FBI Directors have either admitted they lied under oath, or preposterously under oath claimed ignorance or amnesia about events directly under their control. Or they simply stonewalled subpoenas and testimonies about alleged FBI crimes.
The former CIA Director admitted to lying twice under oath. The FBI hired social media corporations to suppress election-cycle news deemed unhelpful to the Left. The agency, along with Democratic operatives, helped hatch the election-cycle conspiracy of the 2015-2016 Russian-Collusion hoax, and the 2020 Russian disinformation laptop hoax. The FBI played a central role in many of the 2024 indictments. In other words, the FBI along with the DOJ, has sought to warp three presidential elections in a row.
On the prompt of a Joe Biden campaign official (and now Secretary of State) and a former interim CIA director, 50 former intelligence officials lied to the electorate that an authentic but incriminating Biden computer was a likely Russian plant—a fact known to be lie but not disclosed as such by the FBI.
3. The Attack on the Supreme Court.
Once the Court achieved a more or less predictable conservative majority, the Left sought to diminish it in a variety of ways. It has called for packing the Court with leftist jurists to create a new 15-justice bench. Leftist law professors in the Ivy League, in neo-Confederate nullification and insurrectionary style, call for the nation to ignore Court rulings on abortion and affirmative action.
The Senate minority leader led a throng to the doors of the court, threatening justices by name: “You have released the whirlwind, and you will pay the price. You won’t know what hit you if you go forward with these awful decisions.”
Protestors now mob the homes of individual justices hoping to intimidate them and alter their upcoming opinions—confident that the Department of Justice will exempt them from any legal consequences of such felonious behavior.
The media routinely accuses conservative justices of improper or illegal behavior, without worry about the emptiness of the charges. A traditionalist justice now accepts that a controversial ruling can result in media charges that he is corrupt, in shrieking protestors mobbing his home, in a mob assembling at the doors of the Court, in disruptions during Court hearings, in politicians issuing threats to his person, in congressional calls to alter the century-and-a-half make-up of the Court, and in Ivy League law professors urging the country to ignore majority decisions.
In sum, a conservative jurist must be careful where and when he goes out in public.
4. The Media-Democratic Fusion.
If one were to listen during the last few years to NBC, ABC, CBS, NPR, PBS, MSNBC, or CNN, or read the New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, or the Los Angeles Times, then one would have believed the following:
A) Donald Trump worked with the Russians to throw and win the 2016 election. As part of that skullduggery, frolicking amid prostitutes he urinated on a Moscow hotel bed to spite Barack Obama. B) He was mentally incapacitated as president and should have been removed under the 25th Amendment. C) In 2020, his campaign once more worked with the Russians to create an exact replica of Hunter Biden’s laptop, replete with dozens of lurid fake photos and hundreds of cleverly doctored emails to smear the Biden family and aid his own reelection effort. D) Trump as chief conspirator preplanned a violent and armed insurrection that sought to storm and permanently occupy the government, violently hijacking the balloting and seizing the presidency—resulting in the murder of a Capitol police officer and the subsequent deaths of other traumatized officers.
E) For the last eight years, none of Trump’s political opponents have ever destroyed subpoenaed evidence, conspired to hire foreign nationals to compile false and lurid files on him to subvert his political campaigns, or used their political offices to help solicit foreign money for family lobbyists. F) Trump is the first major candidate and politician who allegedly overvalued his real assets to obtain a loan that he repaid; the first to have concluded non-disclosure agreements with potential embarrassing liaisons; the first ex-president to remove sensitive files to his personal residence; and the first to phone a state official to whine about the integrity of the vote count. G) He is the first losing presidential candidate or major politician to question an election result or to seek redress through government agencies to rectify the purported corruption of the balloting.
In sum, for the first time in American history, nearly all the major communication and journalistic networks have been fused with a political party. They believe the new role of the media is to advance a shared progressive cause, oppose and even defame common opponents, and feed their audiences things that are not, and cannot possibly be, true.
5. The Destruction of Common Law.
By defunding the police in major cities, and by showering leftwing district attorney candidates with millions of dollars in campaign funding, the Left systematically eroded the law as we know it in our major cities.
As a result, downtowns are after-dark, no-go zones, as once great metropolises resemble veritable combat theaters. Cities are becoming depopulated as consumers and businesses no longer find it safe to conduct commerce. Criminals and homeless now routinely break the law with impunity. Public violence, defecation, urination, fornication, and injection do not even rate as misdemeanors.
The Left has redefined violent crime to such an extent that shoplifting is no longer actionable. Flash mobs that take over streets and swarm to loot stores are rarely if ever arrested. Security officers who apprehend thieves or intervene to stop violence are more likely to be prosecuted than criminals themselves. There is no longer any immigration law; it has been utterly destroyed by Joe Biden. Seven-million illegal entrants flood into the U.S. and, along with the Mexican government, make demands on their hosts to accommodate their illegality.
In sum, in blue states and at the federal level, leftwing prosecutors and justices decide to enforce or ignore statutes, pile up or reduce indictments, increase or decrease punishments not on what the law entails, or evidence directs, but on the race, class, or ideology of the perpetrator, usually in connection with the particular status of his victims. If asymmetry in race, class, or ideology is suggested, then the law must modulate in redistributive fashion to contextualize the crime and criminal as a victim rather than a victimizer. The result is the veritable destruction of law and order as we once knew it.
6. The Erosion of the Military.
Rarely has the American people polled so little confidence in the U.S. military. It perceives the Pentagon mission largely one to greenlight social change through the rapidity of the chain of command, not necessarily to maintain deterrence, much less to win all its wars.
The Left has ensured that our armed forces are underfunded, short on munitions and weapons, and military officers are used to promote progressive social agendas. Officers expect to be promoted or stalled on the basis of their views on race and gender.
Those who traditionally died at twice their numbers in the general population in combat in Iraq and Afghanistan are ostracized and in near record numbers leaving, while their friends and relatives are no longer enlisting in the military.
Former Pentagon four-star officers violated the Code of Uniform Military Justice in attacking a sitting president with the harshest invective, invoking comparisons to Hitler and Mussolini, again predictably from a leftwing point of view.
The public expects the Joint Chiefs to be both appointed on ideological considerations, and from time to time even to free-lance to contact enemy counterparts should they feel a conservative president is dangerous to world peace.
There is no longer any social stigma or legal jeopardy for retired officers in working as defense contractor lobbyists or board members, after revolving from or soon back to the Pentagon.
7. Sexes.
The heterosexual male and female, marriage, and the nuclear family are all to be suspect. There are three sexes or perhaps still more. English language pronouns are inadequate to reflect sexual diversity.
So adherence to such ossified languages is career endangering. An epidemic of childlessness, singlehood, and collapsing fertility rates are either of no national importance or illustrate the preferred non-nuclear family model. Powerful hormonal drug regimens and permanent radical sex-change surgery should be the choices of minors alone who know best when they choose to transition to another sex. Graphic sex manuals and drag queen shows with simulated sex acts can perhaps acculturate preteens to the dangers of growing up in an oppressive “normative” binary society.
Sex, but not race, is constructed, and thus a matter not of biology but of individual choice.
8. Race, Not Class.
Racial inequality and lack of parity are due to “whiteness.” Racial quotas, segregated dorms, graduations, workshops, and safe spaces are exempt from civil rights statutes given they are necessary to achieve equity. Integration and assimilation are the opiates of the masses. Apartheid and segregation are misunderstood modalities, and thus, if enlightened, sometimes necessary corrective measures.
Reparations are to supersede ineffective affirmative action. Wokeness liberates us to see how race explains everything in America, past and present. At universities and in popular culture “proportional representation” of various ethnicities and races is no longer sufficient remedy.
Instead reparatory hiring and admissions are required to atone for prior generations of discrimination. It is taboo to suggest that cultural conditions not just race accounts for inequality. Everything from meritocracy to promptness to physical fitness is racist in nature, requiring DEI experts to expose and inform about the systemic nature of American racism.
9. Debt is a Construct.
Modern monetary theory proved that annual deficits and national debt are just a state accounting challenge. So printing more money is an act that properly diminishes the value of existing capital improperly horded by parasitic profiteers. Spreading the ensuing cash wealth to the more deserving and victimized is long overdue social justice.
At any time, the national “debt” can be deconstructed by renouncing usurious bond obligations, appropriating private retirement accounts, or further inflating the currency—if governments are committed enough to social justice.
10. Universities.
It is now heresy that universities should be places of disinterested inquiry and inductive investigation. They can properly instead become a valuable tool in ridding society of racist and sexist forces, platitudes about free speech and equality under the law, and the tyranny of private property, capitalist profiteering, and white, male heterosexual Christian oppression.
So the role of a university is to create a brief safe space in which graduates can leave with proper training about the terrible history of the United States and the ways in which it must be dismantled and then be rebuilt by the properly trained experts from the ground up. Counterrevolutionaries or deluded liberals and their quaint adherence to a racist and archaic Bill of Rights have no place on these islands of progressive resistance.
None of the above was true at the millennium; all are now—with more still to come.
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USA// COVID//VACCINE/ECONOMIC COSTS
END.
SWAMP STORIES
Alan Dershowitz…..
Can Trump Get An “Impartial Jury” In DC? What The Law Requires
MONDAY, AUG 07, 2023 – 11:00 PM
Authored by Alan M. Dershowitz via the Gatestone Institute,
The Sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution guarantees the accused the right to “an impartial jury.” But it also states that the trial should take place in “the state and district wherein the crime shall have been committed.” What should happen, therefore, when it is virtually impossible for the defendant to get an impartial jury in that state or district?
In federal cases, the law provides for a change of venue under appropriate circumstances. The prosecution of Donald Trump for the events around January 6, 2021 would seem to call for a change of venue. The District of Columbia is the most extreme Democratic district in the country. Approximately 95% of the potential jurors register and vote Democrat. Whereas approximately 5% voted for Trump. Furthermore, the anger against Trump is understandable in light of the fact that the events of January 6th directly involved many citizens of the district. Moreover, the judge randomly selected to preside over this case has a long history of bias against Trump and his supporters, and her law firm has a long history of conflicts and corruption.
The goal of the Sixth Amendment is to assure not only that the defendant is treated justly, but that the appearance of justice is satisfied as well. A jury and judge that are impartial, and seen to be impartial, are essential to achieving this goal. It is imperative, therefore, that in a case where the incumbent president has urged his Attorney General to pursue his political opponent aggressively, that all efforts must be made to ensure fairness. Prosecutors must lean over backwards to persuade the public that partisan considerations played absolutely no role in the decision to indict. Agreeing to a change of venue and judge would go a long way toward seeing that justice is done.
Change of venue motions are only rarely granted, as are motions to recuse a selected judge. But this is a case where justice demands that these motions be granted, both in the interests of the defendants and in the interests of justice. The government should not oppose such motions, though they generally do if it gives them a tactical advantage.
It is likely, therefore, that these defense requests will be denied by the trial judge. Trump’s lawyers will try to take an immediate interlocutory appeal before trial.
Though such appeals before trial are generally disfavored, the arguments for allowing it in this case are strong. The trial itself promises to play an important role in the 2024 election, especially since the prosecution wants it to occur in the middle of the campaign season. If an unfair trial results in a conviction, the impact will already be felt, even if it is reversed on appeal after the election, as the prosecution likely anticipates.
So the appellate courts should be able to assure in advance that a fair trial occurs in a fair venue presided over by a fair judge, especially if it takes place before the presidential election.
If the prosecution case is strong, it should have no fear of a jury and judge outside of DC. As the Supreme Court has repeatedly said: the job of a prosecutor is not merely to maximize the chances of winning, but to assure that he wins fairly and justly. In order to achieve that goal, the prosecutors in this case should not oppose defense motions for a change of venue and judge. Nor should it oppose an appeal if the trial judge denies these well-founded defense motions.
In all likelihood, prosecutors will vigorously fight all efforts by the defense to assure an impartial jury and judge, because they want every advantage that will help them secure a victory. They will point to defense efforts to secure advantages for their client and argue that the adversary system of justice requires them to do the same. But that is not the law. The Supreme Court clearly delineated a different role for persecutors who represent the government:
“The United States Attorney is the representative not of an ordinary party to a controversy, but of a sovereignty whose obligation to govern impartially is as compelling as its obligation to govern at all, and whose interest, therefore, in a criminal prosecution is not that it shall win a case, but that justice shall be done.”
The prosecutors in the January 6th case should study this opinion before they deny Trump an impartial jury.
* * *
Alan M. Dershowitz is the Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law, Emeritus at Harvard Law School, and the author most recently of Get Trump: The Threat to Civil Liberties, Due Process, and Our Constitutional Rule of Law. He is the Jack Roth Charitable Foundation Fellow at Gatestone Institute, and is also the host of “The Dershow” podcast.
end
You just cannot make this up: FBI official McGonigal involved in the Trump Russia Hoax to plet guilty to conspiring with Russia
(zerohedge)
FBI Official Involved In Trump-Russia Hoax To Plead Guilty To — Conspiring With Russia
TUESDAY, AUG 08, 2023 – 02:45 PM
An ex-FBI agent who led the agency’s New York counterintelligence division and played a key role in the Trump-Russia collusion probe – will plead guilty to charges of colluding with Russia himself, a federal judge suggested in a Monday order reported by the Washington Times.
Charles McGonigal was arrested in January and charged with violating US sanctions on Russia by taking secret payments from a Russian oligarch, Oleg V. Deripaska, to investigate a rival oligarch.
“The court has been informed that defendant Charles McGonigal may wish to enter a change of plea,” wrote Judge Jennifer Reardon in a brief order in which she also scheduled a hearing for Aug. 15.
McGonigal initially pleaded not guilty on four corruption charges – including conspiring to evade U.S. sanctions, money laundering, conspiring to commit money laundering and conspiring to violate federal law against doing business with sanctioned individuals. Each count carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison.
During his days in counterintelligence, McGonigal was responsible for supervising and participating in investigations of Russian oligarchs, including Deripaska.
The indictment unsealed in Federal District Court in Manhattan on Monday charges the former F.B.I. official, Mr. McGonigal, with one count of violating U.S. sanctions, one count of money laundering and two conspiracy counts. –NY Times
Federal prosecutors have filed two separate indictments against McGonigal – one in New York and one in Washington – over the bribes.
There is no indication that he will change his plea in Washington, per the report.
Mr. McGonigal made at least $25,000 as an investigator for the law firm before directly working for Mr. Deripaska. He received an initial payment of $51,000 and then payments of $41,790 each month for three months from August 2021 to November 2021, the indictment said.
Prosecutors said Mr. McGonigal concealed his ties to the Russian oligarch by telling friends he was working for a “rich Russian guy” and stressed that his work was legal. In conversations about Mr. Deripaska, he would try to keep his employer’s identity a secret by referring to him as “the big guy” and “you know whom.” -Washington Times
END
THE KING REPORT
| The King Report August 8, 2023 Issue 7047 | Independent View of the News |
| Defensive asset allocators punished equity bulls late last week. On Monday, equity bulls got their way: stocks rallied sharply; bonds declined smartly. Gasoline rallied again. Traders bought ESUs as soon as the market opened on Sunday night (US). The first peak occurred at 4:02 ET. ESUs then declined 17 handles by 6:30 ET. ESUs traded sideways until the rally to exploit the NYSE opening rally began at 8:30 ET. ESUs surged 22 handles by 9:34 ET. Pump & Dumpers dumped; ESUs slid 17 handles by 10:00 ET. However, it was Monday; and most traders wanted to be long for the Monday rally. ESUs surged 19 handles by 10:41 ET. They then sank 16 handles by the 11:30 ET European close. A post-European close relief rally appeared. After a modest midday retreat, ESUs and stocks plodded higher until ESUs hit a daily peak of 4536.25 at 14:00 ET. ESUs then traded in 10-handle range until the late upward manipulation put ESUs to a new daily high of 4540.00 at the close. USUs hit their daily high of 122 5/32 (+5/32) at 1:21 ET. They sank to a daily low of 121 1/32 at 6:18 ET. USUs rallied to a recovery high of 121 29/32 at 9:06 ET. USUs formed a quintuple top by 9:52 ET. After four attempts to take out the first top, traders decided to get out. USUs sank to 121 8/32 at 12:22 ET. After a 14/32 recovery, USUs retreated 10/32 by the close (-18/32 for the day). Tesla’s stock turns lower as CFO (Zachary Kirkhorn) steps down after 4 years in the role https://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-stock-turns-lower-as-cfo-steps-down-after-4-years-in-the-role-48f12b96 Tyson Foods sales hit by slowing demand, to shut four more US chicken plants Tyson Foods missed Wall Street expectations for third-quarter revenue and profit on Monday, hurt by falling chicken and pork prices as well as slowing demand for its beef products… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tyson-foods-misses-sales-estimates-113925360.html @NeelyTamminga: Family budget talks are happening. Conagra CEO: folks are buying less Kellogg’s CEO: folks are maximizing pantries Tyson Prep’d Foods: same, same The food budget is the first line of defense. And it’s being activated. Positive aspects of previous session The usual Monday equity rally appeared Negative aspects of previous session Gasoline jumped as much as 1.5% Bonds declined smartly Ambiguous aspects of previous session How bogus/fraudulent are US economic statistics? If the DoJ, FBI, and CIA are corrupt… First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4509.81 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4519.84; 4491.15 GOP Prez candidate @VivekGRamaswamy: It’s not crazy to think a Ukrainian company’s multimillion dollar bribe to the Biden family is one reason why Biden is now showering Ukraine with billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars. It’s crazier to think it’s totally unrelated, and craziest of all is that the GOP is playing along as if they’re in on the act. Silk Road Paved with Cash: Court records confirm millions flowed to Biden family from China Prosecutor’s evidence trail in Hunter Biden case directly contradicts claims made by President for years. Lawmakers told Just the News last week that the size of the payments from communist China and Joe Biden’s efforts to conceal them raise larger questions about whether such monies to his family caused the president to take actions like refusing to shoot down a Chinese spy balloon or shuttering the FBI’s main Chinese counter-intelligence program rooting out spies in U.S. academia… https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/silk-road-paved-cash-court-records-confirm-millions-flowed-biden Today – Though the S&P 500 Index closed 18.44 above 4500, its session high of 4519.84 was well below its Friday high of 4540.34. We noted that the S&P 500 Index had formed an Outside Day (higher high with a lower low) and traders would be sensitive to a breach of the high or low on Monday. Since no breach of the high or low occurred on Monday, despite the robust rally, traders will try to force the S&P 500 Index above its Friday high to trigger buying. Traders realize that the window for a rally is open until the release of July CPI at 830 ET on Thursday. So, they will be aggressive until Thursday. ESUs are -0.50 and USUs are +3/32 at 20:50 ET. Expected economic data: June Consumer Credit $13.5B; Atlanta Fed (Uber dove) Bostic & Fed Gov. Bowman 8:30 ET S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4415; 100-day MA: 4252; 150-day MA: 4169; 200-day MA: 4101 DJIA 50-day MA: 34,321; 100-day MA: 33,789; 150-day MA: 33,672; 200-day MA: 33,536 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3752.81 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4372.50 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4593.17 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4530.36 triggers a buy signal Rep. Jim Jordan @Jim_Jordan: THE FACEBOOK FILES PART 4. FBI LIED ABOUT MEETING WITH BIG TECH REGARDING NY POST’S HUNTER BIDEN LAPTOP STORY Internal FB docs reveal that an FBI Special Agent made false statements in testimony about the FBI’s role in the suppression of the Hunter Biden laptop story. FBI Special Agent Elvis Chan is the main conduit between the FBI’s Foreign Influence Task Force and Big Tech. Agent Chan was in the meeting between the FBI and Facebook on Oct. 14, 2020—the day the @nypost published its story on the Hunter Biden laptop. Laura Dehmlow is the current Section Chief of the Foreign Influence Task Force. On Oct. 14, when Facebook asked if the laptop was real, she responded “no comment” even though the FBI had the laptop and knew it was real. In July, @JudiciaryGOP and @Weaponization interviewed Laura Dehmlow. Her testimony was shocking, revealing that the FBI deliberately withheld critical information from social media companies about Hunter Biden’s laptop the day that the @nypost story broke. In her interview, we learned, for the first time, that the FBI met with Twitter on October 14 before meeting with Facebook the same day. When Twitter asked if the laptop was real, an FBI agent said “yes.” But a second FBI agent—a lawyer—jumped in, cut him off, and said, “no further comment.” Read the transcript for yourself:zx https://twitter.com/Jim_Jordan/status/1688553347517730816 But it gets better. Dehmlow revealed that the FBI then had emergency internal deliberations to decide how to answer that same question going forward. Someone at the FBI—the FBI refuses to say who—ordered that the FBI would say “no comment” going forward… https://twitter.com/Jim_Jordan/status/1688553349468045313 We know what happened next. Twitter and Facebook censored the @nypost story. The Biden campaign secretly set in motion the events that led to the 51 former intel officials discrediting the story as Russian disinformation.. Chan was asked again if, other than the October 14 Facebook-FITF meeting, he was “aware of any communications between anyone at Facebook and anyone at the FBI related to the Hunter Biden laptop story?” He answered: “No.” COMPLETELY FALSE. The Committee has recently obtained an internal Facebook document PROVING that Agent Chan had a secret “follow up” call with Facebook about the Hunter Biden laptop story on October 15, just one day after the @nypost story and the first Facebook meeting! Those weren’t Agent Chan’s only inconsistent statements. Agent Chan also claimed in the deposition that he had “no internal knowledge of [the FBI’s] investigation” involving Hunter Biden’s laptop… https://twitter.com/Jim_Jordan/status/1688553339624042496q @CollinRugg: FBI Special Agent Elvis Chan, who is responsible for colluding with Twitter & META to censor the Hunter laptop story, lied under oath about communications with Big Tech giants. The FBI is the biggest threat to democracy in America. DOJ Slapped By Judge in Trump Documents Case DOJ special counsel Jack Smith has been directed by the court to unseal two filings and to provide a comprehensive legal rationale for a Washington, D.C. grand jury’s involvement in the investigation. Specifically, Cannon, a Trump appointee, has ordered Smith to explain “the legal propriety” of using a DC Grand Jury in a Florida matter…(DC is 90-some percent Democrats) “The Special Counsel states in conclusory terms that the supplement should be sealed from public view ‘to comport with grand jury secrecy,’ but the motion for leave and the supplement plainly fail to satisfy the burden of establishing a sufficient legal or factual basis to warrant sealing the motion and supplement,” the order reads. “Among other topics as raised in the Motion, the response shall address the legal propriety of using an out-of-district grand jury proceeding to continue to investigate and/or to seek post-indictment hearings on matters pertinent to the instant indicted matter in this district,” the order adds… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/doj-slapped-judge-trump-documents-case Biden administration lied to Gold Star family about marine’s death in Afghanistan, mom says The fallen Marine’s father said to Biden: ‘Be a grown a** man’ “I was told to my face, he died on impact. That’s not true. The only reason that I know this is because witnesses told me the truth,” Barnett claimed. “I was lied to and basically told to shut up.” “He lived for a little while…he was giving out his ammo. He tied a tourniquet at around his leg. I don’t understand the reasoning of that lie. It makes no sense..” https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-administration-gold-star-family-marines-death-afghanistan-mom\ @wendyp4545: Kelly Barnett, Mother of Darin Hoover who was killed in the Afghanistan withdraw says that the military were told to clean the airbase before they left Bagram. She said that the military told her that he died on impact and that was a lie because military members who were there told her that he didn’t die right away. https://twitter.com/AlphaOmegaAI/status/1688625362668843008 @wendyp4545: My friends who have been following me for a long time now know that I’ve written several posts accusing the Biden administration of selling Bagram Air Base to China. To my new followers, I believe that the “withdrawal” in Afghanistan wasn’t a withdrawal but the close of a business deal and the removal of our troops off of the airbase Biden sold China. After hearing Kelly Barnett’s opening statement informing the committee that they were ordered to clean the airbase before they left, adds weight to my working theory. Hunter Biden’s longtime business partner (Eric Schwerin) visited the Obama WH, VP residence more than previously known – Former President Obama appointee and top exec at Hunter Biden’s now-defunct firm visited White House at least 36 times https://t.co/VZyK2aRUB8 @TruthNinja316: Who is Karen Dunn? The attorney helping Hunter Biden in 2014 on the engagement between Boies and Burisma? Well, her husband Brian Netter is now prosecuting former Trump official Peter Navarro. Oh, did I mention Merrick Garland officiated their wedding? https://t.co/lCC2VAHIPU DC and the Swamp are sooooo incestuous! EXCLUSIVE: Secret Service Told Joe Biden Who Brought Cocaine into White House, Sources Say https://t.co/b8vwVedXCt @corrcomm: I love how DeSantis has to be spot-on perfect in every moment, in every delivery, down to this shit—but we can elect a guy who slurs his speech, capitalizes random words, and is still dining out on obnoxious, fifth grade nicknames for anyone who doesn’t sufficiently kiss his ass. The Remaking of America – Victor David Hanson We are in the midst of one of the most radical revolutions in American history. It is as far-reaching and dangerous as the turbulent years of the 1850s and 1860s or the 1930s. Every aspect of American life and culture is under assault, including the very processes by which we govern ourselves, and the manner in which we live. The Revolution began under the Obama administration that sought to divide Americans into oppressed and oppressors, and then substitute race for class victimization. It was empowered by the bicoastal wealth accrued from globalization, and honed during the COVID lockdown, quarantine-fed economic downturn, and the George Floyd riots and their aftermath. The Revolution was boosted by fanatic opposition to the presidency of Donald Trump. And the result is an America that is unrecognizable from what it was a mere decade ago. Here are 10 upheavals that the Left has successfully wrought… https://victorhanson.com/the-remaking-of-america/ “If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.”— George Orwell | |
END
GREG HUNTER..
SEE YOU TOMORROW
harveyorganblog.com 
