AUGUST 30/FIRST DAY NOTICE TOMORROW/WEST CLOSING CONTROL OVER GOLD/SILVER PRICING: GOLD CLOSED UP $8.15 TO $ 1944.90//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 2 CENTS TO $24.69//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $2.95 TO $980.45, WHEREAS PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $30.10 TO $1227.60// CHINA CUTS MORTGAGE RATES TRYING TO STIMULATE ITS HOUSING SECTOR//BRITAIN’S CLIMATE CONTROL COMMITTEE WANTS ALL CITIZENS TO SHUT OFF HEAT DURING THE NIGHT//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES//COVID AND VACCINE UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER/SLAY NEWS/EWOL NEWS//NEWS ADDICTS//ANOTHER MILITARY COUP IN AFRICA THIS TIME IN OIL RICH GABON//THE NORMALLY FROTHY ADP REPORT SHOWS EMPLOYMENT FALTERING//Q2 GDP FIRST REVISION LOWERED TO 2.1%//IDALIA HITS THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR TALLAHASSEE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 28 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 84 661 C JP MORGAN 154 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 28 905 C ADM 1 991 H CME 13
TOTAL: 154 154 MONTH TO DATE: 12,272
JPMorgan stopped 0 /154 contracts.
FOR AUGUST:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2023. CONTRACT: 154 NOTICES FOR 15400 OZ or 0.4790 TONNES
total notices so far: 12,272 contracts for 1,227,200 oz (38.171 tonnes)
FOR AUGUST:
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR nil OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 954 for 4,770,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $8.15
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.
INVENTORY RESTS AT 889,23 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS AT THE SLV// SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.834 MILLION OZ OZ SILVER OUT OF THE SLV//
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 443,210 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1486 CONTRACTS TO 134,993 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.49 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A GIGANTIC SIZED 1169 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 1169 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.49). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER CONTRACTS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 4080 CONTRACTS ON BOTH EXCHANGES ALONG WITH LITTLE T.A.S.LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT THE COMEX SESSION.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A GIGANTIC ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 2162 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.105 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S NIL OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 4.770 MILLION OZ + OUR NEW CRIMINAL 0 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0 MILLION OZ + EXCHANGE FOR RISK//PRIOR 9.88 MILLION OZ/// : THUS NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IN OZ: 4.770 MILLION OZ + 9.88 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 14.650 MILLION OZ/// // // HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ GIGANTIC SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) GIGANTIC SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE (1169CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL 469 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 22 days, total 32,141 contracts: OR 160.705 MILLION OZ (1460 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 160.705MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 160.705 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1486 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.49 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GIGANTIC EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 2162 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF 3.105 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 4.770 MILLION OZ+ 0 MILLION EX. FOR RISK //NEW TOTAL EXCH. FOR RISK 9.88 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK// NEW TOTALS STANDING FOR SILVER: 14.65 MILLION OZ//// WE HAVE A GIGANTIC GAIN OF 3648 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A GIGANTIC 1169 CONTRACTS//LITTLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION . THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (1169) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 9275 CONTRACTS TO 442,806 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED: 452 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 9275 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $17.05 GAIN IN PRICE//TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER SMALL INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST. AT 30.656 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP + PRIOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = (.684 TONNES) // STANDING REMAINS AT 38.171 TONNES + .684 EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 38.855/ + /A FAIR (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 1515 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR$17.65 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 11,715 OI CONTRACTS (36.414 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2440CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 442,806
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,715 CONTRACTS WITH 9275 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR 2440 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,715CONTRACTS OR 36.414 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 1515 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2440 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (9275) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 11,715 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING SHORT AND SPECULATORS GOING LONG ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JULY AT 30.656 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 38.171 TONNES + .684 TONNES (EXCHANGE FOR RISK//PRIOR) NEW TOTALS: 38.855 TONNES/// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH LITTLE TAS LIQUIDATION DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1515 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
AUGUST
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUG :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 60,688 CONTRACTS OR 6,068,800 OZ OR 188.765 TONNES IN 22 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2750 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 22 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 188.765 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 188.765/3550 x 100% TONNES 5.21% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 188.765 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1486 CONTRACTS OI TO 135,425 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A GIGANTIC 2162 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 2162and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2162 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1486 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2162 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3648 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 18.240 MILLION OZ
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.25 PTS OR 0.04% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 1.17 PTS OR 0.01% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 10.30 PTS OR 0.35% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.22 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.2888 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.2988 /Oil UP TO 81.70 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 85.98 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 9275CONTRACTS TO 442,806 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $17.65 ON TUESDAY.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2440 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 2440 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2440 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG TOTAL OF 11,715 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2440LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 9275 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $17.65//MONDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 1515 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: AUGUST (38.855) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES (INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $17.65) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 12,412 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF TUESDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 36.414 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST. (30.656 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 38.171 TONNES + .6842 (PRIOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK) // TOTAL REMAINS AT 38.855 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $17.65.
WE HAD – REMOVED 652 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 11,715 CONTRACTS OR 1,171,500 OZ OR 36.414 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
12,272 notices 1,227,200 OZ 38.171 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: NIL oz
customer deposits: 0
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 1 customer withdrawals
i) Out of JPMorgan 160,755.000(5,000 kilobars)
total withdrawals 160,755,000 oz
Adjustments; 2 dealer TO CUSTOMER
i) Out of HSBC 3,279.402 oz
ii) Out of Brinks 36,748.593 ozoz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST.
For the front month of AUGUST we have an oi of 154 contracts having LOST 82 contracts. We had 82 contracts filed
on TUESDAY, so we gained 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand at the comex,
Sept GAINED 12 contracts to 3949. We have one more reading day before first day notice. It looks like we will have close to 10 tonnes of gold standing which is huge for a non delivery month.
Oct GAINED 9869 contracts to 28,791 contracts.
We had 0 contracts filed for today representing oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 154 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 154 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (12,272 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (154 CONTRACT) minus the number of notices served upon today 154 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,227,200 OZ OR 38.171 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of AUGUST. + .684 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/prior = 38.885 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUSTcontract month: No of notices filed so far (12,272) x 100 oz + (154) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (154) x 100 oz) which equals 1,227,200 oz standing OR 38.171 TONNES + .684 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/prior = 38.885 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 38.885 TONNES WHICH IS SMALL FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 21,389,770.610 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10 ,867,934.561 (338.03 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,521,836.049 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,796,837 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 273,618 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
AUGUST 30
//2023// THE AUGUST 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
609,948.670 oz Delaware CNT
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
0 CONTRACT(S) (nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts (NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
954 Contracts (4,770,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: 0
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 deposit customer account:
total customer deposits: nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 139.276 million oz/277.604 million = 50.18% of comex .//
Comex withdrawals 2
i) Out of Delaware: 9759.1000 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 599,989.570 oz
adjustments: 1 : customer to dealer
592,572.7000 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 42.695 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 277,604 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST /2023 OI: 0 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 0 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD
0 NOTICE FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.
SEPT HAS A LOSS OF 8162 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 6147 WITH 1 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE. WE WILL HAVE A LOW DELIVERY MONTH FOR SEPT OF AROUND 15 MILLION OZ//
OCT GAINED 118 CONTRACT TO STAND AT 1003.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for NIL oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 71,696 strong
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 106,407 huge
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 954 x 5,000 oz = 4,770,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (0) and the number of notices served upon today 0x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST/2023 contract month: 954 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST (0) – number of notices served upon today (0 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates to 4.770 million oz.+ 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED TODAY+ //NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 9.88 MILLION OZ//NEW SILVER STANDING: 14.65 MILLION oz.
There are 42.102 million oz of registered silver.
Thus if we take today’s standing at 14.65 and add last month’s 30.9 million oz we have 44.540 million oz against only 42.432 million registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES
AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD UP 17.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $6.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES
AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES
AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES
AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $21.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES
AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $2.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES
AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD UP $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 887.50 TONNES
AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.42 TONNES
AUGUST 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.42 TONNES
AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $7,45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.76 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.87 TONNES
AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.75 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 899.63 TONNES
AUGUST 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.10 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .31 TONNES FORM THE GLD//: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.31 TONNES
AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.69 TONNES
AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.75 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.69 TONNES
AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES FORM THE GLD /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 903.69 TONNES
AUGUST 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.00 TONNES
AUGUST 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 906.00 TONNES
AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.18 TONNES
AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.75 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 909.18 TONNES
AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $28.45 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 31/WITH GOLD UP $9.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 912.93 TONNES
JULY 28/WITH GOLD UP $14.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 915,82 TONNES
JULY 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $21.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 917.26 TONNES
JULY 26/WITH GOLD UP $6.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.20 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 919.00 TONNES
JULY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES
JULY 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.70 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES FROM THE GLD/ .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 913.80 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 889.23 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.834 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.210 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OF SILVER INTO THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 445.044 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.281 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.861 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.751 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.145 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.651 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.896 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 94 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.547 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 917,0000 OZ FROM THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.275 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.275 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: / .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.459 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.565 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.926 MILLION OZ INTOTHE SLV/: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.106 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 8,807 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.180 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 8,807 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.180 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 40 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 4/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.294 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 458.987 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 189,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.281 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 43 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 275,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.471 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 61 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 184,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.746 MILLION OZ
JULY 31/WITH SILVER UP 45 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 184,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.746 MILLION OZ
JULY 28/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 550,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.930 MILLION OZ
JULY 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ
JULY 26/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: .////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/
JULY 25/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV..////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.480 MILLION OZ/
JULY 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/
JULY 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.101 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 453.306 MILLION OZ/
JULY 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.468 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 454.107 MILLION OZ/
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2888
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2988
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.25 PTS OR 0.04%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 1.17 PTS OR 0.01%
2. Nikkei closed UP 10.30 OR 0.35%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 103.42 EURO FALLS TO 1.0885 UP 16 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.641 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 146.35/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: UP// OFF- SHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.5710***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 4.225*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD RISES TO 3.589…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 3.859
3j Gold at $1939.05 silver at: 24.62 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 55 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 96.00//
3m oil into the 81 dollar handle for WTI and 87 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 146.35// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.641% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8790 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9569well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.149 UP 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.2580 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.907 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.75…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 2 BASIS PTS AT 4.4930
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
USA EARLY MORNING REPORT
Futures, Bonds Dip As German Inflation Comes In Hotter Than Expected
WEDNESDAY, AUG 30, 2023 – 08:11 AM
US equity futures are lower, following most European bourses and bonds in the red European after the latest round of German regional data suggested inflation may not yet be fully on the retreat in the euro region. As of 7:45am ET, S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures were both down about 0.1% after the S&P 500 jumped by the most since June on Tuesday after unexpectedly weak JOLTS jobs and consumer-confidence readings in the US raised hopes the Federal Reserve may be nearing the end of its tightening cycle.
German 10-year bund yields jumped as much as 7bps points to 2.58% after regional reports showed inflation accelerated in four of six German states in August, ahead of figures for the overall German economy due later Wednesday. A separate report showed Spanish inflation also quickened. The dollar weakened as the session has progressed and is trading lower against most G-10 currencies. Oil prices remain higher but metals are mixed, with copper slightly lower. Today, we get the latest ADP (which has been a terrible predictor of NFP numbers) and GDP revision which JPM expects to be revised down to 2.0% from 2.4%, below the consensus of no revision. China will release PMI-Mfg. and PMI-Srvcs tonight at 9.30pm ET.
In premarket trading, megacap tech names are mostly lower; with NVDA dropping -0.8% after closing at an all time high yesterday. HP Inc. slumped 10% after the technology hardware company cut its full-year cash flow and profit outlook. Treasury yields ticked higher and a gauge of the dollar was steady. Chinese stocks listed in the US fell in premarket trading, paring gains following a 6% rally in the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index in the previous two sessions. Alibaba -1.6%, Baidu -1.3%, PDD Holdings unchanged, JD.com -1.9%, NetEase -1.3%, Trip.com -2.3%, KE Holdings -2.4%, ZTO Express -4.8%. EV stocks lead losses; Nio falls 3.8%, extending a decline since reporting on Tuesday; Li Auto -3.9%, Xpeng -2.8%. Here are other notable premarket movers:
Alphabet analysts were positive about the company’s artificial intelligence updates at its Google Cloud Next event. The tech giant also announced a new AI infrastructure and software as part of an expanded partnership with Nvidia. Shares fluctuate.
Ambarella drops 21% after its forecast for third-quarter revenue fell short of Wall Street expectations, prompting a slew of price target cuts from analysts.
Box falls 9.1% after the infrastructure software company cut its full-year revenue forecast, with analysts flagging pressure on the firm’s clients against a tough macroeconomic backdrop.
FibroGen tumbles 22% after the biotech company’s Phase 3 LELANTOS-2 trial of pamrevlumab for the treatment of ambulatory patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy did not meet the primary endpoint.
Globalstar rises 6.1% as the company named former CEO and executive chairman of Qualcomm, Paul Jacobs, as its new CEO.
Investors will monitor reports on US economic growth and private-sector employment later Wednesday, as well as key non-farm payrolls numbers on Friday, to further ascertain the economy’s resilience amid high interest rates. “Data is king right now in terms of market sentiment,” said Susannah Streeter, an analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown Plc. “The non-farm payroll snapshot on Friday will crown the week, and if it points to a fresh slowdown in hiring, we could see another spurt in stock prices.”
Meanwhile, stronger than expected German and Spanish inflation data muddied the waters for European policy makers as they approach the September rates decision. Market pricing implies roughly even odds of a quarter-point increase by the European Central Bank to 4%. Further clouding the outlook was data showing that euro-area economic confidence slowed more than anticipated this month.
European stocks and bund futures are in the red after Spanish and German inflation data kept the possibility of another ECB rate hike firmly on the table. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.3%, led by declines in the utility, technology and consumer sectors. Banks and basis resources gained while utilities led the decline as Orsted A/S plunged more than 20% after the Danish power generator forecast potential impairments of up to $2.3 billion relating to its US portfolio. Among other individual movers, Prudential Plc climbed more than 4% after posting a rise in new business profit. Here are the most notable European movers:
Orsted slumps as much as 21%, the most on record, after the Danish power generator forecast potential impairments of up to $2.3b relating to its US portfolio. Jefferies called the update a “clear negative”
Delivery Hero shares fall as much as 7.3% to the lowest level since June. Analysts say the food delivery company’s first-half gross margins were slightly below estimates
Mining group Eramet SA, oil and gas producer Maurel & Prom and a listed unit of TotalEnergies SE all sank after soldiers seized power in OPEC member Gabon, where the companies have operations
Brunello Cucinelli gains as much as 6.2%, the most intraday since March 16, as the Italian luxury company said it expects full-year revenue to rise by about 19%, at the top end of previous guidance
Aroundtown rises as much as 8.9% after the German landlord raises its full-year guidance for funds from operations (FFO). Berenberg says aiming for a higher earnings level was a “positive surprise”
Prudential rises as much as 4.6% after the insurer reports improved new business profit from its insurance operation. Analysts highlight the company’s strong performance in Hong Kong
Opus Global, a Hungarian holding company, fell as much as 12% after announcing it will suspend its share buyback program and may resume purchases after Oct. 2, when it’s due to publish 2Q results
In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index came off its highs after earlier rising as much as 1%, as the strong rally in Chinese equity markets gradually evaporated. Tech stocks such as TSMC and Samsung were the top contributors to the gauge’s gains. Benchmarks had earlier rallied, with the Hang Seng Index rising as much as 1.4%, after Chinese state-owned lenders were reported to prepare to reduce rates on the majority of outstanding mortgages, as well as on deposits.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both opened with gains as the region conformed to the global risk appetite, with the Shanghai Comp on a more cautious footing after US Commerce Secretary Raimondo suggested US firms complain that China is “un-investable”, while participants also awaited the speculated mortgage rates cuts. In other news, China is reportedly exploring ways to make its own AI memory chips despite US sanctions, according to SCMP sources.
Australia’s ASX 200 led the gain in the region, rising more than 1% as a slide in the country’s inflation data bolstered prospects for the rate freeze next week.
Nikkei 225 saw its machinery sector leading the gains, although the index’s upside is hampered by the recent gains in the JPY.
Indian stocks ended flat on Wednesday as banks and utilities declined while technology shares were among gainers. The S&P BSE Sensex Index was little changed at 65,087.25 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index was flat at 19,347.45. Out of 31 stocks in the index, 17 rose and 14 fell. The Nifty has traded below its 20-day moving average for the fourth session in a row despite positive global cues.
“These little piecemeal policy shifts are probably very good in the short term for sentiment, but they don’t necessarily create this sort of surge in terms of the local economy,” Dwyfor Evans, head of APAC macro strategy at State Street Global Markets, said on Bloomberg Television. “There are still bigger issues at play here that I think are holding investors back still at this particular point.”
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%; it dropped 0.4% on Tuesday as bets for a Federal Reserve hike by year-end were pared back significantly following weak US consumer confidence and JOLTS data
EUR/USD strengthened after data showed inflation in Germany and Spain accelerated, bolstering possibility that ECB may have to raise rates further. Euro bearish sentiment in options over the next month eases following the latest data out of the US and the euro area.
Australia’s dollar fell after weaker-than-expected inflation bolstered prospects that the RBA will stand pat on rates next week. AUD/USD slipped 0.1% after adding 0.8% on Tuesday. The pair briefly fell to 0.6450 earlier Wednesday. Bids for exporters remain layered 0.6440/50, according to traders. Reserve Bank pricing sees an implied rate of 4.164% by the December meeting from 4.175% yesterday
In rates, treasuries were under pressure as the US trading day begins, paced by bunds, where bear-flattening ensued after German inflation rose more than forecast. US yields remain inside Tuesday’s bull-steepening ranges. German 10-year yields rise 6bps to 2.57% while Treasuries also declined, paring some of Tuesday’s rally: yields were higher by 1bp-3bp across the maturity spectrum with the curve steeper, following short-end-led declines of more than 10bp Tuesday. Market-implied expectations for Fed policy are little changed, pricing in just over 50% odds of a quarter-point rate increase in November. Treasuries may draw support from expectations that month-end index rebalancing late Thursday, estimated to extend its duration by 0.12 year, will spur buying. Focal points of US session include August ADP employment change ahead of broader jobs report Friday, and the second estimate of 2Q GDP, a month after the first one exceeded economist estimates, sparking a bond market selloff.
In commodities, crude futures advance, with WTI rising 0.6% to trade near $81.70. Spot gold rises 0.1%.
Bitcoin is under modest pressure despite the relatively directionless USD action. Currently, BTC resides at the low end of USD 27.29-27.75k parameters, which are well within Tuesday’s more pronounced USD 26-28.14k bounds.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the German and Spanish CPI readings for August, UK mortgage approvals for July, whilst in the US there’s the ADP’s report of private payrolls for August, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, along with pending home sales for July. Today’s earnings releases include Salesforce.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 4,501.00
MXAP up 0.3% to 161.60
MXAPJ up 0.3% to 508.58
Nikkei up 0.3% to 32,333.46
Topix up 0.4% to 2,313.38
Hang Seng Index little changed at 18,482.86
Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,137.14
Sensex up 0.4% to 65,352.93
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.2% to 7,297.75
Kospi up 0.4% to 2,561.22
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 459.35
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.56%
Euro down 0.1% to $1.0865
Brent Futures up 0.2% to $85.70/bbl
Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,936.26
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.11% to 103.64
Top Overnight News
Leading BOJ hawk Naoki Tamura hinted that the central bank may attain its long sought-after goal of 2% inflation on a stable basis by early 2024, which may pave the way for higher rates. He hopes the bank will have a “higher resolution” picture around January to March. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg still see April as the most likely month for a policy change. BBG
China has asked two of the nation’s biggest financial firms to examine the books of Zhongrong International Trust Co., potentially paving the way for a state-led rescue of the troubled shadow lender. BBG
Australia’s CPI in Jul moved down to +4.9% from +5.4% in June and below the Street’s +5.2% forecast. BBG
Spain’s CPI for Aug ran slightly hot, with the core number coming in at +6.1% (down from +6.2% in Jul but ahead of the Street’s +6% forecast) and headline +2.4% (up from +2.1% in Jul and inline w/the Street’s +2.4% forecast). BBG
Ukrainian drones struck seven Russian regions overnight, destroying several military cargo planes, in Kyiv’s most sweeping unmanned aerial attack inside enemy territory since Moscow invaded last year. FT
Soldiers seized power in OPEC member Gabon, canceling an Aug. 26 presidential election that was set to extend the Bongo family’s 56-year hold on power. The military takeover is the ninth in sub-Saharan Africa since 2020 and follows a coup in Niger last month, raising concerns of further regional instability. BBG
US oil stockpiles slumped by 11.5 million barrels last week, the API is said to have reported. That would cut total holdings to the lowest this year if confirmed by the EIA. Supplies at Cushing dropped 2.24 million to the least since early January. BBG
Founders and venture capitalists who flocked to artificial-intelligence startups are learning that turning the chatbot buzz into successful businesses is harder than it seems. Almost a year into the boom ignited by the November launch of ChatGPT, some startups that epitomized the zeal for so-called generative AI are now navigating layoffs and reduced user interest. WSJ
Amazon is being threatened with legal action from the US medicines watchdog over the sales of “unapproved” drugs on its online site, as the tech giant faces scrutiny while seeking to break further into the $4tn American healthcare industry. FT
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsuawk
APAC stocks traded positively across the board following the JOLTS-induced gains seen on Wall Street and in the run-up to month end. ASX 200 saw its upside driven by the industrial sector and closely followed by its gold sector, with a further boost seen from the softer-than-expected Aussie CPI data. Nikkei 225 saw its machinery sector leading the gains, although the index’s upside is hampered by the recent gains in the JPY. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both opened with gains as the region conformed to the global risk appetite, with the Shanghai Comp on a more cautious footing after US Commerce Secretary Raimondo suggested US firms complain that China is “un-investable”, while participants also awaited the speculated mortgage rates cuts. In other news, China is reportedly exploring ways to make its own AI memory chips despite US sanctions, according to SCMP sources.
Top Asian News
BoJ Board Member Tamura said BoJ will take steps to curb an excessive rise in interest rates, such as increasing bond buying if BoJ sees speculative and sharp moves that deviate from fundamentals. BoJ Board Member Tamura said he personally feels that sustained and stable achievement of the 2% inflation target is in sight, and it is appropriate to keep easy policy now given uncertainty on hitting the price goal; does not expect 10yr JGB yield to rise to 1.0%. There is a good chance Japan’s economic growth will exceed expectations, he said.
China is reportedly exploring ways to make its own AI memory chips despite US sanctions, SCMP sources said; “China’s top DRAM maker, ChangXin Memory Technologies, is the country’s best hope for specialist chips, but it may take up to four years to deliver products”.
Country Garden (2007 HK) will raise HKD 270mln via new share issues at HKD 0.77 each, according to Reuters.
Chinese regulators urge money brokers to ensure data security, according to Reuters.
PBoC injected CNY 382bln via 7-day reverse repos with the maintained rate at 1.80% for a CNY 81bln net injection.
PBoC holds a meeting with private firms in order to promote their financing, according to Yicai.
European bourses are in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%, with stocks generally soft after yesterday’s upside. The current session’s pressure is a function of more hawkish ECB expectations for September after German-state and Spanish metrics. Sectors are mostly in the red with Tech underperforming as yields rise, a narrative which is supporting Banking/Insurance names. Stateside, futures are modestly softer, ES -0.2% ahead of a busy US agenda; NQ -0.3% lags incrementally given the mentioned yield moves.
Top European News
EU Chamber of Commerce President says “uninvestable” is not a term that we would use to describe China; China is under-invested in terms of the FDI it has been able to attract for Europe.
ECB’s Centeno says EZ economic growth indicators have been surprising on the downside recently, downside risks for growth outlined in June projections are materialising. Not seeing de-anchoring of inflation expectations. Seeing a degree of flexibility in the labour market that was not evident in the past.
FX
Greenback steadier after a collapse on lower job openings and loss of consumer confidence.
DXY attempts to form a base around 103.50 – Kiwi cedes ground to Buck along with Yen and Aussie following weak Antipodean data and somewhat mixed BoJ rhetoric
NZD/USD pivots 0.5950, USD/JPY reclaims 146.00+ status and AUD/USD tests 0.6450 from a peak above 21 DMA.
Euro underpinned as German state CPIs imply upside bias to national outturn.
EUR/USD approaches 1.0900 and the top of the band of expiries.
PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1816 vs exp. 7.2773 (prev. 7.1851)
Fixed Income
Broad debt retracement from Tuesday’s US data-inspired highs, with EGBs leading the way and peers down in sympathy.
Bunds below the prior session low within 131.83-132.56 range.
T-note towards base of 110-18+/28 bounds and Gilts trying to stay afloat between 94.35-91 parameters.
Australia sells AUD 700mln 2.75% 2028 Bonds: b/c 3.25x (prev. 5.70x), average yield 3.8331% (prev. 3.5188%)
UK DMO intends to schedule 11 conventional Gilt auctions and four I/L in the October-December period.
Commodities
Currently, WTI Oct’23 and Brent Nov’23 are at the top-end of sub-USD 1/bbl parameters, a peak which printed in proximity to Idalia getting upgraded to a category four hurricane.
Spot gold is unchanged in extremely narrow circa. USD 3/oz bounds as the DXY struggles to meaningfully deviate from the neutral point ahead of a packed afternoon agenda; base metals mixed.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -11.5mln (exp. -2.9mln), Gasoline +1.4mln (exp. -1.4mln), Distillate +2.5mln (exp. +0.1mln), Cushing -2.2mln.
NHC says Idalia rapidly intensifies into a Category 4 Hurricane, catastrophic storm surge and destructive winds are nearing Florida Big Bend region. “Idalia could continue to strengthen before it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida in a few hours. While Idalia should weaken after landfall, it is likely to still be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and near the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina late today. Idalia should emerge off the southeastern United States coast early on Thursday and move eastward through late week.”
Japanese PM Kishida says aims to bring down retail gasoline prices to around JPY 175/litre in October (currently JPY 185/litre).
Geopolitics
Explosions were reported at Pskov Airport in western Russia, near the border with Estonia, according to BNO Newsroom.
The Chinese Embassy in the US said China is working to ease market access further and treat foreign firms in the same manner as domestic firms, and added that China will only open its doors wider to the outside world. The embassy noted cyber security review on Micron (MU) is necessary for safeguarding national security, according to Reuters.
Senior Gabonese military officers appear on television and claim they have taken power and borders are closed until further notice; Gabon soldiers announce the cancellation of elections, and the dissolution of institutions on TV, via AFP.
US Event Calendar
07:00: Aug. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -4.2%
08:15: Aug. ADP Employment Change, est. 195,000, prior 324,000
08:30: 2Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.4%, prior 2.4%
2Q GDP Price Index, est. 2.2%, prior 2.2%
2Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 3.8%, prior 3.8%
2Q Personal Consumption, est. 1.8%, prior 1.6%
08:30: July Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.7%
08:30: July Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$90b, prior -$87.8b, revised -$88.8b
08:30: July Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.3%, prior -0.5%
10:00: July Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. -1.0%, prior 0.3%
July Pending Home Sales YoY, est. -15.7%, prior -14.8%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the morning wrap
I was back in the office yesterday after two weeks high up in the French Alps. For our entire trip it was mostly over 30 degrees even at altitude. However the day after we got back it snowed there. I think it would have blown the kids’ mind to have seen that after the weather we had. Talking of the kids, my twins were 6 yesterday. The biggest problem with that is that we bought them new bikes, plus one for Maisie. However this is the first ones we’ve bought that have not come preassembled. So last night my wife and I cursed, swore, and injured ourselves in the pursuit of building three bikes. If you happen to see me in the next few days I guarantee if you look closely enough you’ll see oil somewhere on me that I haven’t been able to get out.
It’s certainly not been a dull second half of August in my absense. To be fair the first half when I was around wasn’t dull either. Markets have swung from narrative to narrative with the soft landing one winning out handsomely yesterday or as a minimum the narrative that the Fed is more likely than not to be done hiking. Although with two whole days left of this choppy month, there’s plenty of time for that to change again.
The big driver yesterday was the latest JOLTS report which showed a further, and large, softening in the US labour market. That came alongside a weak consumer confidence print from the Conference Board, where the present situation component fell to a 9-month low. Together, those two releases led to growing hopes that the Fed would call it a day on their rate hikes, which sent yields on 10yr Treasuries down -8.2bps on the day to 4.12% with 2yrs falling a sizeable -15.4bps, the largest yield decline in nearly 4 months. Equities also rallied strongly on the back of those headlines, with the S&P 500 having its best day since early June (+1.45%) as it advanced for a third day in a row to 2-week highs.
In terms of the details of the JOLTS report, the main headline was that job openings fell to 8.827m in July (vs. 9.5m expected), which was the lowest it had been since March 2021. That meant that the ratio of job openings per unemployed individuals fell back to 1.51 as well, which is the lowest since September 2021, although above the levels around 1.2 seen before the Covid-19 pandemic. The other big story from the release was the decline in the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their jobs, which is also a good metric for how confident workers are feeling about their prospects. That fell back to 2.3% in July, which is the first time it’s been back at its pre-pandemic level since the current surge in inflation began.
So far at least, this decline in job openings has occurred even as unemployment has remained at historically low levels. Or in other words, the fall in job openings doesn’t appear to have been at the expense of jobs, which is exactly what the Fed are wanting to see. But once these metrics have started falling in the past, it can be hard to know when they’re going to stop, not least since monetary policy operates with time lags that make it hard to feel your way through in real time. So outside of a sudden shock, any path to a hard landing will almost certainly be via signs of a soft landing first.
If you have that concern it would have been heightened by the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence print. It showed a decline in the headline measure to 106.1 (vs. 116.0 expected), with drops in the present situation and expectations components as well. On top of that, there was another signal that the labour market was weakening, since the gap between the number saying jobs were “plentiful” compared to those saying they were “hard to get” fell to the narrowest since April 2021. So this print and the JOLTS numbers set the stage nicely for Friday’s payrolls.
For now the data put an abrupt stop to the growing narrative that the Fed would still deliver another rate hike in the current cycle. Indeed, the chance of another rate hike by November fell from 71% immediately before the JOLTS report to 51% by yesterday’s close.
For equities, the prospect of fewer rate hikes outweighed any concerns around the data being weak. The S&P 500 saw a near-continuous rally during the day to rise by +1.45%, its strongest gain since 2 June, ironically the last time we saw a strong US payrolls beat. So for a completely opposite reason. All 24 industry groups of the S&P 500 gained, with tech stocks leading the advance. This helped the NASDAQ (+1.74%) to hit a 3-week high, whilst the FANG+ Index rose +3.10% (its largest gain since late May).
Back in Europe, there was also a decent market rally following the releases, with yields on 10yr bunds (-5.3bps), OATs (-5.6bps) and BTPs (-7.2bps) all falling back. Likewise for equities, the STOXX 600 (+0.97%) posted a strong advance, although that was helped by the UK’s return from holiday, since the FTSE 100 (+1.72%) caught up with the previous day’s gains. Today however, attention will turn to the flash CPI numbers for August, with the country releases from Spain and Germany out today ahead of the Euro Area-wide release tomorrow. That’s the biggest remaining input for the ECB’s next decision in a couple of weeks’ time, with markets still narrowly expecting that the ECB will finally pause their hiking cycle after 9 consecutive increases.
In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin saw its strongest gain in two months, up +7.15% to $28,005, as the prospects for a first spot Bitcoin ETF improved after a court ruling in the US. It was also a positive day for commodities, with Brent crude (+1.27% to $85.49/bl) moving back above $85 for the first time in two weeks. Across asset classes, the US dollar was the one notable loser of the day, with the broad dollar index (-0.51%) having its weakest day in over three weeks.
Asian equity markets are also trading higher with the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.36%) leading gains across the region as Australia’s inflation softened in July (more below) with the Nikkei on track for its third consecutive day of gains (+0.94%), with the KOSPI (+0.62%) and the Hang Seng (+0.47%) also trading in positive territory. Elsewhere, stocks in mainland China are struggling to gain traction with the CSI (+0.04%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.03%) both just above flat after losing earlier gains. S&P 500 (+0.17%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.27%) futures are edging higher again. 10yr USTs (+1.37 bps) yields have edged back up a bit after the big rally yesterday.
Coming back to Australia, data showed that the inflation rate moderated to +4.9% y/y in July (v/s +5.2% expected), its lowest level in 17 months as against a level of +5.4% in June thus reducing the possibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raising interest rates again. Following the release, the Australian dollar lost ground against what has been a weak 24 hours for the US dollar and is down -0.14% at $0.6472 as I type.
News from various sources (like Bloomberg) are indicating that some Chinese state-owned banks are preparing to slash interest rates on existing mortgages and deposits very soon as Beijing is ramping up its efforts to revive growth in the world’s second-largest economy. So watch for headlines there.
Back to yesterday and the other US data release was on housing for June. According to the 20-City index from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller, prices were up another +0.92% that month (vs. +0.80% expected), which is the third consecutive month that prices grew by at least +0.9%. Clearly, housing is only one sector of the economy, but it’s highly sensitive to interest rates, and this is a further sign that it’s picking back up again. On a year-on-year basis, the 20-city index is now only down by -1.17% (vs. -1.60% expected). That said, the house price resilience may be as much about the drag from higher rates on supply of housing in a still solid economy as it as sign of resilient demand.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the German and Spanish CPI readings for August, UK mortgage approvals for July, whilst in the US there’s the ADP’s report of private payrolls for August, the second estimate of Q2 GDP, along with pending home sales for July. Today’s earnings releases include Salesforce.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/
Hawkish price action after Spanish & German State CPIs; US ADP, GDP Estimates due – Newsquawk US Market Open
WEDNESDAY, AUG 30, 2023 – 06:33 AM
European bourses are in the red as expectations for the ECB September meeting turns more hawkish
Stateside, futures are in the red with the NQ lagging slightly as yields lift
German regional & Spanish Flash CPIs spurred ECB pricing to a circa. 60% chance of 25bp in Sep., vs 50/50 recently
Broad debt retracement after Tuesday’s US-data inspired highs with EGBs leading post-data
Crude benchmarks at highs as Idalia intensifies into a category four hurricane, expected to intensify as it nears Florida
US Commerce Secretary Raimondo said some Chinese gov’t actions are positive, US businesses want to do business in China
Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP National Employment, US GDP Estimates (Prelim) & PCE Prices Prelim (Q2), German HICP (Flash).
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.6%, with stocks generally soft after yesterday’s upside. The current session’s pressure is a function of more hawkish ECB expectations for September after German-state and Spanish metrics.
Sectors are mostly in the red with Tech underperforming as yields rise, a narrative which is supporting Banking/Insurance names.
Stateside, futures are modestly softer, ES -0.2% ahead of a busy US agenda; NQ -0.3% lags incrementally given the mentioned yield moves.
Click here and here for a recap of the main European equity updates.
FX
Greenback steadier after a collapse on lower job openings and loss of consumer confidence.
DXY attempts to form a base around 103.50 – Kiwi cedes ground to Buck along with Yen and Aussie following weak Antipodean data and somewhat mixed BoJ rhetoric
NZD/USD pivots 0.5950, USD/JPY reclaims 146.00+ status and AUD/USD tests 0.6450 from a peak above 21 DMA.
Euro underpinned as German state CPIs imply upside bias to national outturn.
EUR/USD approaches 1.0900 and the top of the band of expiries.
PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1816 vs exp. 7.2773 (prev. 7.1851)
Currently, WTI Oct’23 and Brent Nov’23 are at the top-end of sub-USD 1/bbl parameters, a peak which printed in proximity to Idalia getting upgraded to a category four hurricane.
Spot gold is unchanged in extremely narrow circa. USD 3/oz bounds as the DXY struggles to meaningfully deviate from the neutral point ahead of a packed afternoon agenda; base metals mixed.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -11.5mln (exp. -2.9mln), Gasoline +1.4mln (exp. -1.4mln), Distillate +2.5mln (exp. +0.1mln), Cushing -2.2mln.
NHC says Idalia rapidly intensifies into a Category 4 Hurricane, catastrophic storm surge and destructive winds are nearing Florida Big Bend region. “Idalia could continue to strengthen before it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida in a few hours. While Idalia should weaken after landfall, it is likely to still be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and near the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina late today. Idalia should emerge off the southeastern United States coast early on Thursday and move eastward through late week.”
Japanese PM Kishida says aims to bring down retail gasoline prices to around JPY 175/litre in October (currently JPY 185/litre).
US Commerce Secretary Raimondo says US businesses want to do business in China; hopes in next few months to “see some results” after China meetings, US told China in an export control meeting this week we are not targeting China. Had no expectation in the first meetings the US would suddenly resolve specific issues involving companies like Intel (INTC), Micron (MU) or Boeing (BA). Brought up Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) China business issues in meetings. Some actions of the Chinese government are positive, but the US needs to see the situation on the ground match the rhetoric.
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) has reached a tentative agreement with the United Steelworkers (USW) on a new 3-year labour agreement, according to Reuters.
Goldman Sachs (GS) bought UK and US companies using Chinese state funds, according to FT.
EU Chamber of Commerce President says “uninvestable” is not a term that we would use to describe China; China is under-invested in terms of the FDI it has been able to attract for Europe.
ECB’s Centeno says EZ economic growth indicators have been surprising on the downside recently, downside risks for growth outlined in June projections are materialising. Not seeing de-anchoring of inflation expectations. Seeing a degree of flexibility in the labour market that was not evident in the past.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA
German North Rhine-Westphalia State CPI YY (Aug 2023) 5.9% (Prev. 5.8%); Core 5.3% (prev. 5.4%); Bavaria State CPI YY (Aug 2023) 5.9% (Prev. 6.1%); Saxony State CPI YY (Aug 2023) 6.8% (Prev. 6.7%). The initial skew of the data was hawkish vs. mainland consensus, more recent metrics have been slightly dovish but the overall bias is now leaning towards the forecast/slightly above.
UK Mortgage Approvals (Jul 2023) 49.444k vs. Exp. 51.0k (Prev. 54.662k); Lending (Jul 2023) 0.23B GB (Prev. 0.136B GB)
GEOPOLITICS
Explosions were reported at Pskov Airport in western Russia, near the border with Estonia, according to BNO Newsroom.
The Chinese Embassy in the US said China is working to ease market access further and treat foreign firms in the same manner as domestic firms, and added that China will only open its doors wider to the outside world. The embassy noted cyber security review on Micron (MU) is necessary for safeguarding national security, according to Reuters.
Senior Gabonese military officers appear on television and claim they have taken power and borders are closed until further notice; Gabon soldiers announce the cancellation of elections, and the dissolution of institutions on TV, via AFP.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is under modest pressure despite the relatively directionless USD action. Currently, BTC resides at the low end of USD 27.29-27.75k parameters, which are well within Tuesday’s more pronounced USD 26-28.14k bounds.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded positively across the board following the JOLTS-induced gains seen on Wall Street and in the run-up to month end.
ASX 200 saw its upside driven by the industrial sector and closely followed by its gold sector, with a further boost seen from the softer-than-expected Aussie CPI data.
Nikkei 225 saw its machinery sector leading the gains, although the index’s upside is hampered by the recent gains in the JPY.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp both opened with gains as the region conformed to the global risk appetite, with the Shanghai Comp on a more cautious footing after US Commerce Secretary Raimondo suggested US firms complain that China is “un-investable”, while participants also awaited the speculated mortgage rates cuts. In other news, China is reportedly exploring ways to make its own AI memory chips despite US sanctions, according to SCMP sources.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
BoJ Board Member Tamura said BoJ will take steps to curb an excessive rise in interest rates, such as increasing bond buying if BoJ sees speculative and sharp moves that deviate from fundamentals. BoJ Board Member Tamura said he personally feels that sustained and stable achievement of the 2% inflation target is in sight, and it is appropriate to keep easy policy now given uncertainty on hitting the price goal; does not expect 10yr JGB yield to rise to 1.0%. There is a good chance Japan’s economic growth will exceed expectations, he said.
China is reportedly exploring ways to make its own AI memory chips despite US sanctions, SCMP sources said; “China’s top DRAM maker, ChangXin Memory Technologies, is the country’s best hope for specialist chips, but it may take up to four years to deliver products”.
Country Garden (2007 HK) will raise HKD 270mln via new share issues at HKD 0.77 each, according to Reuters.
Chinese regulators urge money brokers to ensure data security, according to Reuters.
PBoC injected CNY 382bln via 7-day reverse repos with the maintained rate at 1.80% for a CNY 81bln net injection.
PBoC holds a meeting with private firms in order to promote their financing, according to Yicai.
DATA RECAP
Australian Weighted CPI YY (Jul) 4.9% vs. Exp. 5.2% (Prev. 5.4%)
Australian Construction Work Done (Q2 2023) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 1.8%)
Australian Building Approvals (Jul 2023) -8.1% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. -7.7%); Private House Approvals (Jul 2023) 0.1% (Prev. -1.3%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.25 PTS OR 0.04% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 1.17 PTS OR 0.01% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 10.30 PTS OR 0.35% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.22 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.2888 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.2988 /Oil UP TO 81.70 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 85.98 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
////SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
China cuts mortgage rates for the first time in 14 years trying to boost housing
(zerohedge)
In Desperate Attempt To Boost Housing, China Cuts Mortgage Rates For First Time Since 2009
TUESDAY, AUG 29, 2023 – 07:45 PM
With the market urgently demanding a bazooka or some other “whatever-it-takes“ policy reaction from Beijing in response to China’s slow-motion economic and housing sector trainwreck, Xi’s regime continues to play cat and mouse with traders and continues to trickle down tiny, piecemeal stimmies on a daily basis and this morning was no different when Bloomberg reported that China’s largest banks are set to cut interest rates on trillions of yuan of outstanding home mortgages (and deposits) for the first time since the global financial crisis, as policymakers dig deeper into their toolkit to shore up growth in the world’s second-largest economy.
And indeed, shortly after the report, China – which one year ago suffered through a crippling mortgage payment boycott which brought many of the country’s property developers to the brink of ruin – confirmed that its big (state-owned of course) lenders are reducing rates on the majority of the nation’s 38.6 trillion yuan ($5.3 trillion) of outstanding mortgages, with the reductions only affecting loans on first homes, two of the people said.
At the same time, lenders such as ICBC (Industrial & Commercial Bank of China) and China Construction Bank are poised to cut deposit rates later this week for the third time in a year, people familiar said.
The moves are part of a targeted push by Beijing to spur consumer spending, drive more funds into the stock market and alleviate pressure on lenders’ profit margins. The moves will also achieve none of that since nobody will allocate capital to – and in – a country where the largest asset, real estate, remains in freefall and where everyone is expecting some form of helicopter money to eventually emerge and contain the collapse.
The cuts to mortgage rates were highly anticipated by investors after the central bank hinted at support in mid-July. While China has reduced benchmark rates and pushed the average mortgage cost to a record low, most Chinese households didn’t benefit as banks won’t reprice existing loans until the beginning of next year.
“This is an incremental policy step, not a game changer because people’s confidence is still low,” said Macquarie head of China economic Larry Hu. “I think we’re going to see property easing come through in the coming weeks, I just don’t know if it’s going to be strong enough.”
While Chinese shares gained in offshore trading after Bloomberg reported the banks’ plans, it’s unclear whether the moves will be enough to spark a sustained revival in investor confidence. Authorities have so far avoided broader stimulus measures despite a deepening property crisis and growing deflation pressures that have put the government’s economic growth target of around 5% at risk.
JPMorgan analysts estimated that the annualized rate on new mortgages stands at 4.18%, about 60 basis points lower than the outstanding borrowings. That has prompted some consumers to take out out short-term loans to repay mortgages early. This is a mirror image of the US where the effective mortgage rate is more than half below where the prevailing current 30Y mortgage yield is!
More than 90% of China’s outstanding mortgages were for first homes as of July 2021, according to the latest public data available from the banking regulator. In 2022, more than 80% of new home loans were on first homes, according to the housing ministry.
With lower mortgage rates, however, also come lower deposits rates, and the reduction in the latter is meant to help lenders protect their margins as they extend lower rates to homebuyers. Big state banks may cut rates on local-currency deposits across key tenors by between 5 and 20 basis points, according to the report. Regulators have signed off on the plan, the people added. The cut may come as soon as Friday, one of the people said.
Of course, none of this will make any difference for the big picture. China’s financial sector is already struggling with soaring defaults at shadow banks, which have triggered a fresh wave of anxiety about hidden stress and the potential spillover to state-owned lenders. A default by Chinese property giant Country Garden – said to have far more adverse consequences than the bankruptcy of Evergrande – is looming, and will further crush sentiment and spread deflationary shockwaves both domestically and across the globe. Analysts have also highlighted growing risks associated with debt-laden local government financing vehicles, with Goldman Sachs saying the exposure of banks could weaken their capital positions and lead to lower dividend payouts.
Among the various other piecemeal measures introduced by China, Bloomberg notes that as of June, 100 out of 343 Chinese cities have lowered the rate floor of new-home mortgages or removed the minimum required, the PBOC said in its quarterly monetary policy report on Thursday. That has brought the nation’s average mortgage rate to 4.11% in June, down 0.51 percentage point from a year earlier.
In an extreme scenario assuming the entire mortgage loan book is refinanced with a rate reduction of 60 basis points, earnings at Chinese bank for next year will be cut by 8%, with net interest margins narrowing by 7 basis points, according to JPMorgan. The US bank expects that about 50% of mortgage owners are likely to refinance and most of the impact on bank earnings will be in the near-term.
The last time China allowed a similar move was during early 2009, when some state-owned banks gave a discount on interest rates to qualified borrowers in certain areas in response to the global financial crisis, according to a Zhongtai Securities report.
Futures on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.8% in Hong Kong, building on a two-day rally that’s been fueled by a slew of market-boosting measures from authorities. The contracts are still down about 17% from this year’s high in January. And with consensus demanding helicopter money and nothing less to boost sentiment, don’t expect the gains to stick.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK
How crazy are they? Not to heat homes at night? for climate goals?
(zerohedge)
Millions Of Brits Told Not To Heat Homes At Night As Part Of ‘Net Zero’ Climate Goals
WEDNESDAY, AUG 30, 2023 – 04:15 AM
Britain’s Climate Change Committee (CCC) has urged millions of Britons to not heat their homes in the evening to help the government hit its net zero target.
No, they aren’t urging elites to ditch their private jets for commercial, or not to burn 1,000 of fuel taking the yacht out for a jaunt. Chris Stark, head of the CCC, wants ordinary citizens to turn off their electric heaters (heat pumps) at night as part of a wider drive to deliver “emissions savings,” which includes a shift away from gas boilers – which Chris, a hypocrite, still has.
Contained in a document on “behavior change,” the CCC recommended that Britons instead “pre-heat” their houses in the afternoons when electricity use is lower, and would theoretically save families money.
“There is significant potential to deliver emissions savings, just by changing the way we use our homes,” reads the CCC’s sixth “carbon budget” paper, which lays out how the UK should reduce its emissions between 2033-37.
“Where homes are sufficiently well insulated, it is possible to pre-heat ahead of peak times, enabling access to cheaper tariffs which reflect the reduced costs associated with running networks and producing power during off-peak times.”
Critics boil
“The grid is already creaking and daft ideas like this show just how much worse it will become,” Andrew Montford, the director of Net Zero Watch, told The Telegraph. “It’s clear that renewables are a disaster in the making. We now need political leaders with the courage to admit it.”
And according to Tory MP Craig Mackinlay, head of his party’s Net Zero Scrutiny group, “It is becoming clear that adherence to judicable Carbon Budgets and edicts coming from the CCC are developing into farce.”
“The Climate Change Act 2008 will require amendment to free us from madcap and impractical targets foisted upon the population by long departed politicians.
“This latest advice to freeze ourselves on cold evenings merely shows the truth that the dream of plentiful and cheap renewable energy is a sham.
“I came into politics to improve all aspects of my constituents’ lives, not make them colder and poorer,” he told The Telegraph.
Lower bills?
The CCC insists that following the advice means “homes will still be warm, but bills can be lowered,” adding “This is a demonstration of homeowners benefiting from periods of the day when electricity is cheaper.”
“Using electricity to heat a home opens the prospect of choosing a time when prices are lower, something that’s not possible with a gas boiler,” he continued, adding “Smart heating of homes like this also makes the best possible use of the grid and supports greater use of cheap renewable generation.”
Downing Street has hinted it is now set to U-turn amid warnings the move would increase rural fuel poverty and put more strain on the struggling electricity grid.
The CCC is an independent body set up by ministers in 2008 to advise the Government on how to hit its climate targets.
In its latest report, the committee criticises No 10 over its “worryingly slow” action on climate.
It states that Downing Street’s support for new oil and coal exploration and the expansion of airports meant Britain was no longer a global green leader. -The Telegraph
Last month Stark, the head of the CCC, admitted that he still has a gas boiler at home instead of an electric heat pump (gasp!). And he’s not alone.
“I have a gas boiler. I wish I didn’t, but I live in a flat and heat pumps are a very difficult thing to put in there,” he told the Commons environmental audit committee. “The gas boiler guy who comes round and fixes my gas boiler – it breaks very often – tells me they will never work.”
Do as Chris says, not as Chris does.
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE//
Robert H to us;
US-Ukraine Brass Write off Counteroffensive After 57,000 Casualties, Focus on Force-Drafting New Conscripts for 2024 | The Gateway Pundit | by Richard Abelson
Ukraine was never going to win anything other than secure death for its soldiers as NATO/ American proxy. Casualties is a polite word for dead, while one should ask how many are wounded never to return to the fight? Because it is going to be several times the number of dead.
The result is a much more formidable Russia preparing to fight those who care to try their luck. As their economy grew by $600 billion awhile the US contracted by $5.9 trillion, ask who the winner is? Neocons in control care not for economies or citizens in their lust for war.
seems the weapon of choice for the Ukrainians is the drone.
(zerohedge)
Biggest Drone Attack On Russia Since War Began Destroys At Least 4 Military Planes
WEDNESDAY, AUG 30, 2023 – 08:55 AM
Another huge drone attack on Russian territory has taken place in overnight and early hours of Wednesday morning, this time against an airport in the north-western Russian city of Pskov, which hosts military planes. It came amid broader drone attacks on six Russian regions.
Crucially, Pskov is a mere 20 miles from NATO member Estonia’s border, which sparked internet rumors that Estonia could have been involved, also given the city of Pskov is over 400 miles from Ukraine itself. International outlets are citing Russia’s TASS to report that at least four military transport planes were damaged in the attack.
Four Il-76 transport planes were damaged as drones pummeled the airport. “As a result of the drone attack, four Il-76 aircraft were damaged. A fire broke out, and two planes burst into flames,” TASS reported.
Given the apparent direct hit on no less than four large military planes, this marks one of the biggest and successful cross-border attacks from Ukraine since the war began. Crimea has also in the last days come under waves of drone attacks, and overnight Bryansk Oblast was also targeted, as well as the capital of Moscow and other locations.
In total the unprecedented overnight drone operation included strikes on the following:
Pskov’s “Kresty” Airport hit
Bryansk: One of Russia’s largest microchip plants hit
Oryol
Ryazan
Moscow
Sevastopol, Crimea
But Pskov regional governor Mikhail Vedernikov downplayed the significance, emphasizing that the airport will resume operations by Thursday and that there were not civilians hurt.
“According to initial assessments, nothing serious has occurred but it is hard to determine that at night. If everything is in order, the airport will resume normal operations on Thursday,” he said.
Pskov’s Kresty Airport is very close to NATO-member Estonia’s border…
“The defense ministry is repelling a drone attack on Pskov’s airport,” the governor had written previously as the attack unfolded.
According to The Independent, which analyzed circulating footage of the aftermath:
Footage shared by the governor showed smoke billowing over the city of Pskov and a large blaze. Unconfirmed media reports said between 10 and 20 drones could have attacked the airport.
Russian retaliation was swift, the same report said:
Moscow retaliated on Wednesday by launching a “massive combined attack” on the Ukrainian capital using drones and missiles, that killed two people and injured another.
It remains unclear what Kiev hopes to gain in strategic terms from such risky attacks deep into Russia’s territory, given it certainly escalates things without translating into any gains along the front lines for Ukraine.
Washington has long claimed that it does not “enable or encourage” such attacks inside Russia; however The Economistreported Sunday that intelligence provided by Western partners is frequently relied upon for such cross-border operations. Satellite targeting help is also likely a key factor.
6.GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES
end
GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
As we have stated for the past few years, the vaccine produces myocarditis. Now a whistleblower discloses the huge increase in myocarditis in the military
(Phelps/Stieber//EpochTimes)
Whistleblower Who Disclosed Myocarditis Spike In Military After COVID Vaccine Rollout Goes Public
A service member who earlier this year blew the whistle and disclosed data from a Pentagon medical database showing a spike in the rate of myocarditis in the military in 2021, after the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, is going public.
The whistleblower is active-duty Navy Medical Service Corps officer Lt. Ted Macie. He has also revealed new data showing a substantial rise in accidents, assaults, self-harm, and suicide attempts in the military in 2021, compared to the average from 2016 to 2021.
This includes a 147 percent increase in intentional self-harm incidents among service members, and an 828 percent increase in injuries from assaults.
Lt. Macie told The Epoch Times that he began “keeping an eye on” a defense medical database when another whistleblower alerted him to a rise in health-related incidents in the winter of 2021/2022.
The Defense Medical Epidemiology Database (DMED) is a depository of all diagnoses—recorded using International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes—when an active service member is seen on- or off-base by a military or civilian provider. The database does not include any personally identifiable information of service members.
In January, Lt. Macie and his wife traveled to Washington with a report of the data he collected from DMED.
It showed that diagnoses of myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation, jumped 130.5 percent in 2021 when compared to the average from the years 2016 to 2020. Myocarditis is a serious condition that can lead to death.
All four of the COVID-19 vaccines authorized in the United States can cause myocarditis, according to U.S. officials. COVID-19 can also cause myocarditis, though some experts say the data on that front is weaker.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin mandated the vaccines in 2021, a requirement that remained in place until Congress forced its withdrawal in late 2022.
The data also showed spikes in diagnoses of pulmonary embolism (41.2 percent), blood clots in the lungs, ovarian dysfunction (38.2 percent), and “complications and ill-defined descriptions of heart disease” (37.7 percent).
DMED Data
Lt. Macie downloaded the data almost a year after the Pentagon said it fixed a data corruption issue with the DMED.
In 2022, other military whistleblowers reported shocking spikes in disease rates after the introduction of the COVID-19 vaccine. But the Pentagon responded that those figures were not correct because some diagnoses in the years 2016 to 2020 had not been counted, an issue stemming from “corrupt” data.
After the Pentagon said the issue was corrected, Lt. Macie and others—including First Lt. Mark Bashaw, a preventive medicine officer in the Army, Navy Lt. Billy Mosley, Army Surgeon Lt. Col. Theresa Long, and Army doctor Maj. Samuel Sigoloff—noticed that there were still concerning signs of increases in diagnoses, such as myocarditis and pulmonary embolism.
Since word spread that Lt. Macie was the only active-duty member at his command who didn’t receive the COVID-19 vaccine, and was actively suing the secretary of defense, Lt. Macie said people began to come to him in confidence telling him about adverse reactions, which they were convinced were “from the shot,” he said. “These anecdotal, but compelling personal injuries, were a motivator to get things on the right track.”
After verifying Lt. Macie’s report with the Senate Subcommittee on Investigations, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), the top Republican on that panel, sent a letter (pdf) to Mr. Austin in March asking the Pentagon to confirm Lt. Macie’s data.
Lt. Macie had suspected the Pentagon would not respond, based on his experience of previous requests made within the department going unfulfilled.
“In the event our suspicions were correct, I kept additional data to reveal as soon as the data we brought [to Washington] was confirmed, or after being ignored for some time,” he said.
“Much to my surprise,” said Lt. Macie, the Pentagon, in a July reply (pdf) to Mr. Johnson’s letter, confirmed that his data was accurate.
In the Pentagon’s response, Gilbert Cisneros Jr., undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness, pointed to data on the rate of cases per 100,000 person-years, a way to measure risk across a certain period of time. For almost all the conditions that showed an increase in cases in 2021, he stated, the new case rate was higher for service members with a prior COVID-19 infection than for those with a prior COVID-19 vaccination.
“This suggests that it was more likely to be [COVID-19] infection and not COVID-19 vaccination that was the cause,” Mr. Cisneros stated.
Lt. Macie said he plans to bring the additional data he kept “up my chain of command with the aim of a resolution and validation for injured service members, but I’m not holding my breath.”
Lt. Macie has also brought this new data to the office of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), hoping to get the attention of the House Armed Services Committee, a panel Mr. Gaetz sits on. Lt. Macie is not aware of what Mr. Gaetz and his staff will do, but the lawmaker’s office acknowledged in June that “they will take a look,” he said. The Epoch Times has reached out to Mr. Gaetz’s office for comment.
Rise in Accidents, Self-Harm
According to his research, health-related incidents in 2021 rose substantially above the five-year average from 2016 to 2020. “As some may expect,” he said, “internal injuries like myocarditis (130 percent), tinnitus (42 percent), and cerebral infarction (stroke) (43.5 percent) are on the rise.”
But it was Macie’s wife who became curious, asking about other types of injuries.
“What about external cause morbidities, like burns, accidents, self-inflicted harm, and injuries that are not expected to be associated with the COVID shot?” he said.
With the new data he discovered, the following incidents exhibited increases in 2021 above the five-year average: exposure to forces of nature (773 percent), water transport accidents (7,400 percent), land transport vehicle (526 percent), suicide attempts (33 percent), assault (828 percent), slipping, tripping, stumble and falls (471 percent), and intentional self-harm (147 percent).
Some of these not only increased in 2021 but continued to rise in 2022. The Epoch Times has viewed screenshots of this data from the DMED.
Historically, if the Pentagon noticed a trend in certain areas like abuse and suicide, he said, the department would hold a safety stand-down—a military-wide mandatory training and review where all commands require one hundred percent participation.”
“What will higher-ranking general officers, the Surgeon General, Defense Health Agency, and Joint Chiefs do when they receive word that ICD codes/injuries for these incidents are on the rise?” said Lt. Macie.
“Soon, we’ll see if the same people who claim that the service member is their top priority actually show that through their action,” he added.
According to Lt. Macie, there are a few possibilities concerning the new data collected.
“If the data is correct, and is confirmed by [the Pentagon], more than just a stand-down needs to happen. Rising problems like self-harm, suicide attempts, accidents, and assault must be addressed immediately, not just the mess of [vaccine] injuries.”
He noted that the Pentagon may, for a second time, reply saying the data is incorrect, even though the department previously said they’ve resolved the data corruption issues in the system to prevent future errors. But such a reply would raise even more questions going to the integrity of the database and whether there is a cover-up at play, he projected.
Lt. Macie hopes that Congress will press the Pentagon for answers concerning this new data.
But if lawmakers fail to do this, “the people need to step up to hold our government accountable.”
Lt. Macie emphasized that his views do not reflect those of the Department of Defense or the Department of the Navy. The Pentagon didn’t return inquiries by The Epoch Times seeking an explanation for the rise in external cause morbidities.
Zachary Stieber contributed to this report.
END
Murderers… CDC refusing to report vaccine adverse events
(Brownstone)
CDC Now Refusing New COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports In Its V-Safe Program
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) V-safe website quietly stopped collecting adverse event reports with no reason or explanation.
The V-safe website simply states: “Thank you for your participation. Data collection for COVID-19 vaccines concluded on June 30, 2023.” If you go there today, V-safe directs users to the FDA’s VAERS website for adverse event reporting, even though officials continually derided VAERS as “passive” and “unverified.”
VAERS and V-safe are mutually exclusive safety collection databases operated by the FDA and CDC, respectively. VAERS is an older way of collecting safety data where one can fill out a form online, or manually, or by calling a toll-free number, whereas V-safe is a device “app” which requires online registration. Both VAERS and V-safe collect personal information, lot numbers, dates and associated information, but V-safe was an active collection system geared towards a younger app-using demographic.
Here is the last report before deletion.
Does this mean that the CDC believes that the mRNA Covid-19 injections are so safe, there is no need to monitor adverse event reports any longer? What is the argument against continued monitoring, especially since the V-safe website was already up and paid for?
While CDC’s V-safe was stealthily and abruptly turned off, refusing to accept new safety reports, to this very day the CDC continues to urge everyone ages 6 months and older to stay up to date with COVID-19 vaccines and boosters.
As a drug safety expert, I personally can’t cite another example of any agency or manufacturer halting collection of safety data. It seems even worse because mRNA technology is relatively new with long-term manifestations unknown. On top of this, both manufacturers and the FDA refuse to sharethe list of ingredients, such as lipid nanoparticles, which could affect individuals differently and take a long time to manifest clinically.
Safety Data Collection Should Never Stop
Now, contrast that with the fact that the National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration (NHTSA) will still accept a safety report for a 30-year-old Ford Bronco II. Indeed, this is an oddly specific example, but only because I drove this exact vehicle as a family hand-me-down as a student, through my residency, fellowship, for my tenure as a Yale professor on the mean streets of New Haven and even during my years at the FDA as a medical officer /senior medical analyst.
Like mRNA shots, Bronco IIs are still available on the market and people are still using them up to this very day. My Bronco became an intermittent topic of conversation with friends and FDA colleagues. One day, I was informed by a patrolling security guard at the FDA that it was the oldest car on campus.
I didn’t know much about cars (or mRNA technology) back then, but when a fellow FDA-er informed me that my Bronco II had noteworthy safety problems and that the NHTSA still had their eye on this vehicle (rollover accidents were more common and more fatal) I addressed the problem: I got rid of the reliable relic, even though I reallyliked it.
NHTSA is still accepting safety reports on things like my 30-year-old Ford Bronco II, but the CDC isn’t accepting new safety reports on 2-year old novel mRNA vaccines.
Interestingly, the NHTSA link above on my Ford Bronco II only shows: one parts recall, one investigation and 23 complaints, and still features a button in the upper right hand corner for submitting new complaints.
Wikipedia defines an humanitarian crisis or humanitarian disaster as a: “singular event or a series of events that are threatening in terms of health, safety or well-being of a community or large group of people.” Based on VAERS and previous V-safe findings, adverse events from mRNA shots in the USA alone could be considered a humanitarian crisis.
Despite those alarming clinical findings, the CDC has concluded that collecting new safety reports is somehow no longer in the interest of America’s public health. Existing data from the V-safe site showed around 6.5 million adverse events/health impacts out of 10.1 million users, with around 2 million of those people unable to conduct normal activities of daily living or needing medical care, according to a third-party rendering of its findings. In other words, despite mRNA shots still being widely available and the CDC promoting its continued use, it’s “case closed” with regards to collecting new safety reports, under today’s federal public health administration.
Will the CDC opine on the existing data or justify its halting of collecting new safety data? To the best of my knowledge, stopping the collection of public health information doesn’t have a clinical justification or scientific precedence — especially when it comes to an actively marketed product.
In George Orwell’s 1984, characters were told by The Party to “reject the evidence of your eyes and ears.” Now, the CDC isn’t even allowing that evidence to be collected for viewing (and prospective rejecting). It’s a terrible idea for any product, let alone novel mRNA technologies.
Dr. David Gortler, a 2023 Brownstone Fellow, is a pharmacologist, pharmacist, research scientist and a former member of the FDA Senior Executive Leadership Team who served as senior advisor to the FDA Commissioner on matters of: FDA regulatory affairs, drug safety and FDA science policy. He is a former Yale University and Georgetown University didactic professor of pharmacology and biotechnology, with over a decade of academic pedagogy and bench research, as part of his nearly two decades of experience in drug development. He also serves as a scholar at the Ethics and Public Policy Center
END
Now in Australia it is reported that the first COVID deaths were actually fully jabbed in the vaccine
(zerohedge)
First COVID Deaths Were Fully Jabbed, Australian State Records Reveal
In light of a court case launched by a group of doctors challenging the Queensland government’s COVID-19 vaccination mandates, records have revealed that the first deaths in the Australian state were individuals who were fully vaccinated.
A list of the state’s first 183 COVID-19 deaths from the pandemic’s start on March 13, 2020, until Jan. 27, 2022, produced by Queensland’s chief health officer in an affidavit, indicates it was known to authorities as early as Jan. 2022 that the vaccines may not be preventing deaths.
The list shows that the first locally acquired COVID-19 death was one in their 80s and another in their 30s, with both having received two doses of the vaccine in December 2021 and January 2022, respectively.
While Queensland recorded seven deaths early in the pandemic, these cases were acquired outside of the state and before vaccine rollouts began.
Queensland’s border opened in December 2021 after 80 percent of the state population vaccination was reached. By Dec. 31, 2021, nearly 90 percent of the population over 16 were fully vaccinated.
Queensland’s Workplace Mandates
The case, which was launched against the state, calls for the September 2021 directive requiring employees in public health and aged-care facilities to be vaccinated against COVID-19 to be revoked.
A specialist from the case, psychiatrist Peter Parry, said that in the three decades of his career, he had never been subject to disciplinary action until now.
“I graduated from medical school 40 years ago and in all that time have never had a single complaint about me presented to a medical board or AHPRA,” he said.
The reason he chose to decline the COVID-19 vaccines was because these are “not normal vaccines.”
“We hope, by bringing evidentiary material and expert witness testimonies before the Supreme Court, that the Justices will look at the evidence and rule in our favour. If successful, large numbers of experienced nurses, allied health, and doctors will be able to return to assist an overstretched Queensland public health system,” he added.
In addition to enforced work mandates, Premier Annastacia Palazczuk barred the unvaccinated from accessing services and freedoms such as hospitals, disability services, aged care, libraries, and hospitality venues.
This was enforced by proof of vaccination requirements at venues, which the Queensland government said was to keep Queenslanders safe.
Messaging Shifts to Reducing Severe Illness
Initially, in 2021, the Queensland Government closed the state’s borders and encouraged people to get vaccinated against COVID-19. They aimed to reopen the borders once 80 percent of the population was vaccinated, with the goal of stopping the virus’s spread and safeguarding vulnerable citizens.
However, when the borders reopened after reaching the target, COVID-19 cases surged instead of decreasing. When it became clear that the vaccines didn’t entirely prevent infection or transmission, the focus of the messaging shifted to highlight the vaccines’ effectiveness in reducing severe illness and death.
It is still a condition today for most Queensland health staff to be vaccinated against COVID-19 to ensure the ongoing safety of employees, patients, visitors and the wider community.
“The overwhelming benefits of COVID-19 vaccination continue to outweigh the potential risks, and this is substantiated by enormous amounts of safety data based on billions of doses worldwide,” a spokesperson for the TGA told The Epoch Times in an email.
Pfizer Dismisses Concerns Over Vaccine Mandates
The news of the deaths follows a parliamentary inquiry into the COVID-19 mandates heard from the Australian heads of Pfizer Australia that the vaccine mandates coerced Australians into getting vaccinated for COVID-19, saying they had a choice.
Appearing before an Australian senate inquiry into the COVID-19 vaccine mandates, Pfizer Country Medical Director Dr. Krishan Thiru and Dr. Brian Hewitt, the head of Regulatory Sciences for Pfizer, dismissed concerns of senators that Australians had been coerced into getting the COVID-19 vaccine.
“I believe firmly that nobody was forced to have a vaccine,” Dr. Thiru said.
“Mandates for vaccine requirements are determined by governments and health authorities. I believe everybody was offered an opportunity to get a vaccine or not get a vaccine. I don’t believe that anybody was forced to take a vaccine.”
Meanwhile, Dr. Hewitt, when asked if he believed Australians in states that were subject to large-scale mandates—like Western Australia or Victoria—were not forced into getting the shot even when they found they were unable to earn a living without receiving a vaccination, replied he did not believe mandates compelled individuals into vaccinating.
“The mandates for vaccine requirements are determined by governments and health authorities. I don’t believe that the mandates actually forced individuals to get vaccinations,” he said.
Victoria Kelly-Clark contributed to this report.
END
GLOBAL ISSUES
So much for green energy.
(zerohedge)
World’s Largest Offshore Wind Farm-Maker Crashes Most On Record After Catastrophic Results
WEDNESDAY, AUG 30, 2023 – 11:05 AM
Shares of the world’s largest offshore wind farm developer crashed in Copenhagen trading on Wednesday after it warned: “The situation in US offshore wind is severe.”
Orsted A/S was hit with a massive 16 billion Danish kroner ($2.3 billion) impairment on its US portfolio due to snarled supply chains, soaring interest rates, and easy money tax credits drying up — a warning sign the green energy revolution bubble is in trouble.
CEO Mads Nipper warned investors on a conference call: “The situation in US offshore wind is severe.”
Shares in Denmark-listed green energy giant crashed 25%, the largest daily decline since it went public in early 2016.
Bloomberg explained more about the headwinds plaguing Orsted:
The company’s Ocean Wind 1, Sunrise Wind, and Revolution Wind projects in the US are being hurt by supplier delays, which could lead to writedowns of up to 5 billion kroner, it said late Tuesday. High interest rates could also add another 5 billion. In addition, the developer is still in talks with federal stakeholders to qualify for additional tax credits, which haven’t progressed as expected. If unsuccessful, it could lead to impairments of as much as 6 billion kroner.
Analysts at Bernstein warned clients in a note: “Today’s announcement flags risks in the US portfolio and does not do anything to improve the downbeat investor sentiment on the stock.”
“While the bulls could argue many of these issues related to the impairment are already known, the announcement is unlikely to bode well for an already-weakened Orsted share price,” Citigroup Inc. analyst Jenny Ping told clients.
Analysts across the board were overwhelmingly pessimistic about the news (list courtesy of Bloomberg):
BNP Paribas Exane (cut to neutral from outperform)
The potential write-down of DKK16b dwarfs the DKK2.5b impairment announced in January, analyst Harry Wyburd writes in a note
Investor confidence will probably be “compromised” for some time
UBS (buy)
Sam Arie puts the focus on which targets will remain valid in this context
Says today’s announcement is a negative and somewhat of a surprise
Adds investors may be concerned in the change in tone since the June CMD where management seemed more confident in regulatory changes that would help to protect the return profile of these US projects
Jefferies (buy)
The update is a “clear negative,” analyst Ahmed Farman (buy) writes in a note
The impairments are equivalent to as much as ~7% of the Danish power generator’s market capitalization
Still, Jefferies says recent share price weakness suggests the market hasn’t priced in “much value” in the company’s near- term US offshore pipeline
RBC (sector perform)
Alexander Wheeler also calls it a clear negative, with further doubt cast on the overall outlook for US projects, which many believed had been resolved at the capital market day
With ~$4bn invested in the US projects to date, the impairment of up to DKK 16bn ($2.4bn) represents just over half of the overall value
The DKK5b supplier charge is believed to be the maximum number, while on interest rates, if rates stay at current levels then the DKK 5b will be the impact booked at 9M
We ought to label Orsted’s crash as the ‘Green Panic.’ Bulls eager to ride the climate energy revolution might want to rethink their mid-term views.
Our governments, the health officials at CDC, NIH, HHS, FDA, NIAID, PHAC, Health Canada, SAGE etc. knew they had ZERO science to back up anything, knew they were harming us but continued
Nowhere in the world, nowhere, did any lockdown, school closures, business closures, nothing, there is no example anywhere that any mask mandate work, nothing worked, it was all a lie and they stole 3 years of your/our lives, took our freedoms and liberties and made millions of people believe they needed a gene injection for an IFR 0.05% respiratory pathogen where the risk of survival for those 75 and under was 99.998% near 100%. They knew it was a fraud PCR manufactured ‘over-cycled’ (beyong 24 amplifications ans thus detecting non-infectious non-lethal pathogen, viral dust, fragments) pandemic they were putting on us; they knew it was a fraud and that they were conspiring with their ‘asymptomatic’ lie to force us or deceive us into taking a vaccine that did not work (ineffective) and was harmful, for a respiratory pathogen with near 100% survival.
These were criminals and I call them the 20 Horsemen of the COVID Apocalypse and they must never ever be allowed fame and to ride off, no, we must investigate them to see who knew and did what and when, and punish them once shown they caused deaths. I think we can show this. Easily.
excellent scholarship by William…mRNA injury series – Vasculitis caused by Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 mRNA vaccines. Here are 13 cases of this frightening condition
Feb.2022, Greenville, SC – 65 year old man (above) developed lesions on his legs two days after receiving his 3rd Pfizer COVID-19 mRNA vaccine (booster). Biopsy of lesions showed a leukocytoclastic vasculitis and he was treated with steroids
March 2023 – Japan – 61 year old Japanese man presented with fever, polyarthralgia, purpura and urticaria-like rash 2 weeks after 1st dose of Moderna mRNA vaccine and symptoms deteriorated following 2nd dose
Jan.2023 – Tirana, Albania – 72 year old man presented with palpable purpura 2 weeks after Pfizer mRNA vaccine. Histopathological examination confirmed necrotizing vasculitis. Within 2 weeks of starting steroids he was improving (picture on the right)
Dec.2022 – South Korea – 76 year old man with a history of cutaneous leukocytoclastic vasculitis presented with purpura in both limbs and nephrotic syndrome
March 2022 – Egypt – 17 year old girl developed vasculitis 10 days after 1st dose of Pfizer mRNA (bottom left). On the right is a very similar reaction someone’s 20 year old daughter experienced 48 hours after 2nd Moderna shot she took to travel for the summer.
Multiple Counties Outlaw Covid Shots as ‘Ban the Jab’ Movement SpreadsREAD MORE…
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NAACP Official Ties Trump to Jacksonville Shooting: ‘We See the Trump Signs’ That Stand for ‘Hatred’On Monday, the Jacksonville, Florida NAACP’s president asserted that banners endorsing former President Donald Trump incited racial “hatred” and may be tied to the racially motivated Dollar General shooting. He urged the Justice Department to take action. “I spoke with my colleague, Juliette Kayyem,” Rahel Solomon said. “She used to be an official with the Department of Homeland Security, and …READ THE FULL REPORT
Judge Presiding Over January 6 Case Blasted for ‘Political Timing’ of Trump TrialRepublicans and conservatives blasted United States District Judge for the District of Columbia Tanya Chutkan for setting a trial date of March 4, 2024, for former President Donald Trump. Conservative members of Congress like Republican Rep. Byron Donalds and conservative legal figures like Tom Fitton of Judicial Watch ripped Chutkan after she rejected a request from Trump’s attorneys for a …READ THE FULL REPORT
Federal Lawsuit Filed to Disqualify Trump from Running in 2024 ElectionFormer President Donald Trump’s political opponents have come up with another plan to keep him from winning the 2024 election: Make sure he isn’t on the ballot at all. Lawrence Caplan from Boynton Beach, a tax attorney from Florida, has initiated a federal legal action aimed at preventing former Trump from appearing on the ballot, citing a provision in the …READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
Delivered this to you yesterday but it is worth repeating
(Picton/Rabobank)
The Western World Is About To Deliver Some Very Bad News To Its Young Adults
TUESDAY, AUG 29, 2023 – 08:52 AM
By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
Here Be Dragons
I’ve been away on holiday for the last two weeks trying my best to pay more attention to my children than I do to the markets. Mission accomplished for the most part, but it has been hard to look away while momentous shifts seem to be occurring all around us. Indeed, at the Jackson Hole symposium over the weekend, ECB President Lagarde re-upped her comments from April by suggesting that “there are plausible scenarios where we could see a fundamental change in the nature of economic interactions”, “past regularities may no longer be a good guide for how the economy works” and “there is no pre-existing playbook for the situation we are facing.” Translation: “we really don’t know if rates are high enough or not, and that isn’t really the point anyway.”
So, according the second most senior central banker in the world we’re in uncharted waters, and as anyone who has ever taken an interest in the Age of Discovery will know, once you reach the edge of the known world, here be dragons.
The most obvious dragon is of course China, and its surrogates, which are making new attempts at formalizing challenger status to the G7 via the BRICS bloc. Michael Every notes:
The BRICS just expanded to allow in Argentina, Ethiopia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran, so with much hullabaloo we can colour in more countries, GDPs and commodities (like oil) as ‘anti-dollar’. However, Argentina is a serial defaulter with a plummeting currency, and may dollarize soon; Ethiopia is one of the world’s poorest countries, and recently brushed with civil war; Egypt has a wilting currency; Saudi Arabia and the UAE have their currencies pegged to the US dollar, and the former is haggling over a US defence deal and nuclear tech; and Iran is heavily sanctioned, again with a collapsing currency, and could be daggers drawn again with Saudi at any time. In short, the world is changing, but as the FT has pointed out, the BRICS+ (a name created by Goldman Sachs) don’t even have an official website. Meanwhile, it was the Euro, not the dollar, that saw its share of SWIFT transactions collapse to a record low in the latest data. You want to look at potential early victims of any global tectonic shifts? Look there.
This reads as a very ragtag group, with “relationships” built mainly around a common outsider status and no small dose of opportunism in seizing a perceived first-mover advantage in undermining dollar hegemony. We remain sceptical. As we’ve covered in this publication many times, the idea of commodity standard like some kind of petro-Yuan is laden with problems.
The auspices aren’t great for the new alternative multilateralism. The putative centre of the BRICS+ bloc, China, is struggling to revive its flagging growth engine while economic remedies that are taken as orthodox in the West are shunned for their perceived incompatibility with Xi Xinping thought. Markets have been waiting for months for signs of big-bang stimulus from the CCP or the PBOC, but as the WSJ reports, maybe it just ain’t coming. Chinese perceptions that Western consumerism is flabby, decadent and morally obtuse stands at odds with the need for China to fulfil the role of deficit-runner in order to get enough Yuan into the hands of the periphery. How can Argentina, Brazil, Iran and Egypt buy virtuous Chinese manufactures if they don’t have any Yuan? The answer here is that trade will continue to be conducted in dollars, one way or another.
China clearly has little appetite for further credit expansion either. The CCP has made several attempts over the years to rein-in debt levels, all of which have ultimately been abandoned in the face of a stalling economy. For the time being, Xi Xinping is resisting large-scale easing of credit conditions, urging “patience” while the economy passes through what policy-makers hope is a temporary soft patch, rather than the start of a Japan-style stagnation brought on by decades of malinvestment and speculative pump-priming of real estate assets.
The real question now is how strong the CCP and the PBOCs resolve to address burgeoning debt-levels will be in the face of economic slowdown. For an authoritarian regime whose legitimacy is built on the delivery of rapidly rising living standards, slow growth poses a potentially existential risk. The obvious retort here is that authoritarian states have no need to court popular opinion, but the speed at which the Covid-Zero policy was ultimately abandoned in the face of civil discontent should serve as an indication that the CCP is ultimately still sensitive to what the population thinks.
Looking back to Jackson Hole it’s fair to say that debt and popular discontent aren’t a uniquely Chinese problem. During the meeting of rich men north of Richmond (Jackson Hole is north of Richmond, I checked) a paper presented by Barry Eichengreen and Serkan Arslanap broke the bad news that “public debts will not decline significantly for the foreseeable future”, “primary surpluses of… 3 to 5 percent of GDP are very much exceptions to the rule” and that “inflation is not a sustainable route to reducing high public debts.” That all makes for sobering reading for already beleaguered millennials and Gen Z’s, who will be the can carriers for Eichengreen and Arslanap’s prognosis that “given ageing populations, governments will have to find additional finance for healthcare and pensions”.
What seems to be missing here is a dose of Huw Pill cod liver oil, whereby the West confronts the idea that we’re not as rich as we used to be, and that deteriorating demographics and higher spends on national security might necessitate a lowering of ambitions around what is possible in welfare economics. There are signs that the message is starting to get through. BOJ Governor Ueda nodded to the plight of the West when he suggested that the relocation of supply chains will result in lower productivity in the future, which ultimately means lower real incomes. Meanwhile, former French Ambassador to the United States Gerard Araud, echoes Michael Every’s assessment of Europe’s diminishing importance by writing in the UK Telegraph that “deluded Europe can’t see that it is finished.”
Nobody likes bad news, but telling young people that they need to pay a higher proportion of their stagnant incomes to fund the pensions of people who are wealthier than they are ever likely to be is sure to go down like a lead balloon, especially when pop culture is already communicating the sense that a Dollar doesn’t buy what it used to, and is taxed to the hilt.
So, the plates are shifting and policy makers in the West seem to be either totally unsure of the answers, or proffering answers that are anathema to the social fabric. We’re in uncharted territory and here be dragons.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
Chevron evacuates Gulf of Mexico oil platforms ahead of Idalia
(Kennedy/OilPrice.com)
Chevron Evacuates Gulf Of Mexico Oil Platforms As Hurricane Idalia Approaches
Chevron has evacuated three oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of tropical storm Idalia which is strengthening to a hurricane and expected to make landfall in Florida on Wednesday.
The U.S. supermajor said on Tuesday that it had evacuated non-essential personnel from its Blind Faith and Petronius platforms, and all staff had been removed from its Genesis platform in the Gulf of Mexico.
Oil and gas production continued on Tuesday at Chevron’s operated platforms and other facilities in the Gulf of Mexico, a spokesperson told Reuters.
In the 7 a.m. CDT Tuesday update on Hurricane Idalia, the National Hurricane Center said that Idalia is strengthening as it moves northward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
“There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida Gulf coast. Heavy rainfall has the potential to produce flash and urban flooding across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia,” the National Hurricane Center said.
Idalia is expected to make landfall in Florida on Wednesday and create chaos and gasoline shortages just ahead of the Labor Day weekend, when more drivers are expected to hit the road, analysts say.
As of Tuesday morning, the percentage of gas stations in Florida without gasoline remains low but is constantly rising, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan, said.
Gasoline demand in Florida ahead of Idalia could lead to shortages but they will be temporary, AAA Auto Club spokesman Mark Jenkins told Florida’s WUSF Public Media.
“As long as the Tampa Port remains open then gasoline will continue sailing into the region. And deliveries will be made until the actual storm itself is passing through, and then that’s considered to be unsafe to transport fuel, and most people wouldn’t be on the road at that time anyway,” Jenkins said.
Moreover, Hurricane Idalia is not expected to impact refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast supplying Florida as these are on the Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi coasts, he added.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES
GABON/
Oil rich Gabon undergoes a military coup;
Military Seizes Power In OPEC Nation Gabon As Wave Of Coups Sweep Africa
WEDNESDAY, AUG 30, 2023 – 09:45 AM
Following last month’s military takeover in Niger, a group of senior Gabonese military officers announced on national television they were seizing power in the central African nation,overturning results in a disputed presidential election four days ago.
Bloomberg reported the oil-rich nation (also an OPEC member) with a population of about 2 million saw dollar bonds tumble after military officers announced on television channel Gabon 24 that election results were canceled, borders closed, and state institutions including the Senate, National Assembly and Constitutional Court dissolved.
“In the name of the Gabonese people … we have decided to defend the peace by putting an end to the current regime,” one military office said. He said, “We call on the population for calm and serenity.”
You’re probably wondering where the heck is this tiny OPEC country… The former French colony is in central Africa and borders Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and the Republic of Congo.
If successful, the coup will be the eighth in West and Central Africa since 2020—coups in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Chad and Niger. Last month the military seized power in Niger. International Man’s Doug Casey explains more in “The Battle For Strategic Resources In Africa.”
For half a century, the Bongo family ruled the resource-rich country but has been recently accused of abusing power and amassing exorbitant wealth.
Military officials called themselves the “Committee of the Transition and the Restoration of Institutions” and said that “irresponsible, unpredictable governance” has led to a collapse in social cohesion.
Bongo nor his government have reacted to the television appearance of the military. His whereabouts are unknown.
Bloomberg reported Gabon’s dollar bonds due June 2025 fell 11.54 cents to 81.76 cents on the dollar. Both June 2025 and November 2031 were the worst-performing in emerging markets in the session.
French miner Eramet SA, oil and gas producer Maurel & Prom SA, and a listed unit of TotalEnergies SE, which have operations in the country, slid in Paris trading.
The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said the bloc’s foreign ministers would review “the very difficult situation” in Gabon.
Less Than 1/3rd Of Canadians Have “High Trust” In Their Government
WEDNESDAY, AUG 30, 2023 – 05:45 AM
Trust in the government in Canada, and the government’s handling of public health, is waning, according to a new piece of in-house research conducted by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC).
The report was called “Use Of Public Health Measures, Advice And Risk Assessment Survey” and it was conducted seeking out the opinions of 6,200 people across Canada and nine Federal focus groups.
The new report says that: “Trust, particularly in the government and health care sector, is central to the effectiveness of public health measures.” It adds: “While respondents have a lot of trust in hospitals and health care workers, trust in the federal government (e.g., the Public Health Agency) is much lower.”
According to a new article from The Epoch Times, the only people who scored lower in “trust” than the Federal Government were large media companies and celebrities.
The research asked Canadians to express their trust level in institutions and entities using a 1 to 10 scale, with 10 being the highest. Responding to a question about the Federal Government, just 32% of Canadians said they had “high trust”.
52% of respondents said they had high trust in doctors and nurses, while 56% said they had high trust in scientists. 42% of respondents said that they had high trust in family and friends. Journalists and large media companies secured 26% of the high trust ratings, followed by 18% for “ordinary people”, 12% for “people I follow on social media” and 8% for celebrities.
PHAC said: “Celebrities and the people respondents follow on social media are trusted the least by respondents.”
The Epoch Times noted that on June 8, a report called “The Impact Of The Pandemic Experience On Future Vaccine-Related Intentions And Behaviour” had first noted that public mistrust toward Federal experts increased through and after the pandemic.
“Asked what the remedy might be for restoring trust, participants suggested being honest and admit your mistakes,” the report concluded.
And well…we all know that’s not going to happen.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0885 UP 0.0016
USA/ YEN 146.35 UP 0.373 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2654 UP 0.0019
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3559 UP .0009 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 9 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 1.25 PTS OR 0.04%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 1.17 PTS OR 0.01%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.22 % // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 1.17 PTS OR 0.01%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.25 PTS OR 0.04%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.22%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 10.30PTS OR 0.35%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1938.55
silver:$24.60
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 103.42 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.2830
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7,2950)
TURKISH LIRA: 26.72 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.641…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.110% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.239 DOWN 1 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.867 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates WEDNESDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 8.07 POINTS or 0.11%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 36.54 PTS OR 0.23%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 5.92 PTS OR 0.11%
Spain IBEX DOWN 20.20 PTS OR 0.21%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 38.41 PTS OR 0.13%
WTI Oil price 81.55 12: EST
Brent Oil: 85.59 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 96,12; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 69//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.5435 UP 4 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.485 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0920 UP 0.0051 OR 51 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2716 UP .0080 or 80 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.4695% DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .640%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 146.26 UP 0.278 //YEN DOWN 28 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3535 DOWN .0025 CDN dollaR UP 25 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 81.63
Brent OIL: 85.81
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 0 BASIS pts to 4.119%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS PTS to 4.231%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 1 PTS AT 4.894 %
USA dollar index: 103.12 DOWN 35 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 26.72 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 96,22 DOWN 0 AND 76/100 roubles
GOLD 1943.85
SILVER: 24.60
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 37.57 PTS OR 0.11%
NASDAQ 100 UP 85.88 PTS OR 0.56%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.88 DOWN 0.57 PTS (3.94)%
GLD: $180.32 UP 0.45 OR 0.25%
SLV/ $22.57 DOWN 014 OR 0.62%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Stocks & Gold Gain, Dollar Pain As ‘Soft Landing’ Narrative Implodes
WEDNESDAY, AUG 30, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Another day, another disappointing set of macro data that curb-stomps the ‘soft-landing’ narrative as US Macro Surprise Index just suffered its biggest 9-day decline since May 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Specifically, the suddenly disappointing labor market data has sent rate-change expectations plunging below pre-Powell-Jackson-Hole levels…
Source: Bloomberg
The market is now pricing in 110bps of rate-cuts in 2024…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields had a volatile day – swinging from up around 4bps to down around 6bps, as ADP disappointed (and GDP didn’t help). By the close, a rather unusual event occurred with the entire curve ending practically unchanged on the day…
Source: Bloomberg
The 2Y Yield tumbled intraday to basically unchanged on the month, back into the range of the early payrolls and CPI moves…
Source: Bloomberg
The lower yields and dovish drift in STIRs sent long-duration stocks higher. Nasdaq led the day (Dow lagged but was still green). NOTE there was quite a oump and dump after the cash open but the pain trade is higher for now…
For context, this recent rebound has the S&P and Nasdaq back up to only being down around 2% on the month. Small Caps are still down 5%…
Source: Bloomberg
‘Most shorted’ stocks saw a 4th day in a row with an opening squeeze push, but again with little follow-through…
Source: Bloomberg
NVDA extended its bounce, but was unable to breach $500 – its Call Wall – and reversed at that resistance…
The dollar slipped lower once again, back to two week lows, but still up nicely
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin gave back some of yesterday’s SEC-GBTC win gains, but found support around $27,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold continues its charge back towards unchanged on the month, nearing $1950 (spot) intraday today…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices ended higher today, with WTI tagging $82 intraday. Another slam-down attempt struck shortly after the inventory data showed crude stocks at their lowest since Dec 2022…
Finally, as Bloomberg’s Simon White notes, stocks’ rally in response to bad economic news might be short lived as there is plenty of room to catch down to burgeoning recession risks…
Source: Bloomberg
With low volatility, more instability, and pricing that is not expectant of a near-term recession, risks are mounting for equities.
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TRADING//
end
II USA DATA
Normally the ADP employment report is quite frothy. Today’s report coming after the disastrous JOLTS report shows a slowdown in employment. They show wage growth slowing dramatically which does not look true if you see what happened with UPS and other big wage gains
After the JOLTS data suddenly exposing cracks in the ‘oh-so-strong’ labor market, expectations were for a big slowdown in ADP’s employment report (from +324k the prior month to +195k this month). The actual print was worse than expected, adding only 177k – the lowest number since March 2023 – and we note that July’s data was revised up from +324k to +371k (even further from the BLS data)…
Source: Bloomberg
Job growth slowed notably last month, driven heavily by leisure and hospitality.
Job creation by hotels, restaurants and other employers in the sector fell to 30,000 in August after months of strong hiring.
All size cohorts saw gains in employment with Large employees adding the most
“This month’s numbers are consistent with the pace of job creation before the pandemic,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
“After two years of exceptional gains tied to the recovery, we’re moving toward more sustainable growth in pay and employment as the economic effects of the pandemic recede.”
The Services sector once again outperformed the Goods-producing sector as MidWest and the Pacific West saw job losses…
Source: Bloomberg
Wage growth slowed dramatically in August:
Job stayers saw a year-over-year pay increase of 5.9%, the slowest pace of gains since Oct 2021.
For job changers, pay growth slowed to 9.5%.
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as a reminder, June and July’s ADP prints were dramatically higher than the BLS print…
Source: Bloomberg
Is The Fed’s tightening lag finally hitting the labor market? Presumably these pay growth data doesn’t include the recent union wins?
end
Q 2 GDP sharply revised down from 2.4% to 2.1%. When revisions two and three arrive in the months ahead, it will be down to less than 1%.
(zerohedge)
Add Q2 GDP To List Of Economic “Data” Revised Sharply Lower By Biden Administration
WEDNESDAY, AUG 30, 2023 – 09:09 AM
Another data point, another major downward revision lower.
In the past month, the Biden Department of Goalseeking Stuff Higher Before Quietly Revising It Lower The Next Month (BDOGSHBQRILNM) has been busy, and after slashing jobs, JOLTS, new home sales, housing starts and permits and industrial production, moments ago it took the machete to Q2 GDP, which in the first revision of the “data” was just cut to 2.1% (or rather 2.07% to be specific), down from an initial “red hot” print of 2.4% which turned out to be nothing more than some overzealous political activist’s excel adjustments, and well below the consensus estimate of 2.4%.
The revision according to the BEA, which stands for Biden’s Economic Alterations, “reflected a smaller decrease in inventory investment and an acceleration in business investment. These movements were partly offset by a downturn in exports and decelerations in consumer spending and federal government spending. Imports turned down.” In short, everything was uglier,
Taking a closer look at the data, we find the following changes to the bottom line:
Personal consumption added 1.14% to the bottom line print or just over half, up from 1.12% in the original print; annualized this comes out to 1.7% which was below the 1.8% estimate.
Fixed investment contributed 0.66%, down from 0.83%
Change in private inventories now subtracting 0.09% from the bottom line number, a big swing from the positive 0.14% print in the original estimate. And it will be revised even lower next month as more of the “shrink” emerges.
Net exports were also revised lower, with gross exports trimmed from -1.28% to -1.26%, while imports were revised from 1.16% to 1.04%
Finally the ever handy plug that is government consumption (which is a garbage concept since the government does not actually create anything of economic value in the economy but merely allocated graft and embezzlement of public funding), actually rose from 0.45% to 0.58% (of bottom line GDP). Without this revision, Q2 GDP would have printed below 2.0%
Separately, gross domestic purchases prices, the prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents, increased 1.7% in the second quarter after increasing 3.8 percent in the first quarter, above the 1.6% estimate last month but below the consensus 1.8%. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 2.4% after increasing 4.2%.
Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices increased 2.5% in the second quarter after increasing 4.1% in the first quarter. Excluding food and energy, the PCE “core” price index increased 3.7% after increasing 4.9%. This number was also revised lower from 3.8% and missed estimates of 3.8%.
Finally, the BEA reported corporate profits decreased 0.4% at a quarterly rate in the second quarter after decreasing 4.1% in the first quarter. Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased 12.1% after decreasing 2.3 percent. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased 0.9% after decreasing 5.0 percent. Profits from the rest of the world (net)increased 4.4 percent after decreasing 2.0 percent. Corporate profits decreased 6.5 percent in the second quarter from one year ago.
Needless to say, all this is a far cry from the rebound in corporate profits that companies themselves reported in their various GAAP and non-GAAP metrics, which is to be expected in a world where there is now an uncrossable chasm between economic data and its government fabrications.
And now we wait for the Atlanta Fed to slash its Q3 GDPNow estimate from 5.9% to 1%, because at this rate the final Q2 GDP revision next month will print well below 2.0%
end
I do not trust the data:
(zerohedge)
US Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Jumped In July
WEDNESDAY, AUG 30, 2023 – 10:09 AM
With homeowners trapped by a record gap between current and effective mortgage rates…
…US Pending Home Sales were expected to return to decline in July (-1.0% exp) after rising in June for the first time since Feb. Instead, Pending Home Sales surged 0.9% MoM higher (second straight monthly gain), but the year-over-year sales remain down 13.8%…
Source: Bloomberg
By region, July pending sales rose the most in the West as meaningful price declines in the past year lured buyers, Yun said. They also increased in the South, but fell in the Northeast and the Midwest.
Rising mortgage rates, which surged this month to the highest level since 2000, have dealt a severe blow to affordability. With so many homeowners staying put, having locked in much lower rates years earlier, there’s a scant number of available properties. That’s kept prices elevated as result.
“The small gain in contract signings shows the potential for further increases,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.
“However, rising mortgage rates and limited inventory have temporarily hindered the possibility of buying for many.”
Still, when one looks at both the pending and existing home sales index, it is difficult to share Larry’s enthusiasm. Also notable is the record disconnect between existing/pending transactions and new home sales which have been storming higher in recent months.
The pending-home sales report is a leading indicator of existing-home sales given houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.
end
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
IDALIA
Hurricane Idalia Now Category 4 Storm As Florida Landfall Imminent
Update (1113ET):
Dangerous storm surge.
INCREDIBLE VIDEO | Heartbreaking footage to watch. This is a time-lapse video from Steinhatchee, Florida early Wednesday morning as storm surge from Hurricane Idalia pushed ashore. Surge values could top out over 10 feet in spots around this location. #Idalia#FLwxpic.twitter.com/xyMABT0Ylq— Zach Covey (@ZachCoveyTV) August 30, 202
WEDNESDAY, AUG 30, 2023 – 06:55 AM
Hurricane Idalia intensified into a Category 4 storm early Wednesday morning as it is expected to make landfall near Florida’s Big Bend area.
As of 0600 ET, the National Hurricane Center said Idalia was about 55 miles west-northwest of Cedar Key and 95 miles south-southeast of Tallahassee, moving north-northeast at 17 mph. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 130 mph.
“Idalia could continue to strengthen before it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida in a few hours,” NHC said, adding, “While Idalia should weaken after landfall, it is likely to still be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and near the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina late today.”
Catastrophic and life-threatening storm surges are expected between the Wakulla/Jefferson County line and Yankeetown. NHC said these areas could expect a wall of water up to 16 feet.
The National Weather Service in Tallahassee called Idalia “an unprecedented event.” The destructive winds have already led to 70,000 utility customers without power in Florida, according to online outage tracker PowerOutage.us.
Images of flooding along Florida’s Gulf Coast are already being reported on X.
*Developing
END
BALTIMORE
What happened to the $800 million COVID funds? Disappeared!
(zerohedge)
“Baltimore Is A Totally Corrupt Hell Hole”: Mystery Surrounds $800 Million Covid Funds For “Learning Loss”
TUESDAY, AUG 29, 2023 – 11:05 PM
Unveiling another astonishing revelation from the ongoing education crisis within Baltimore City, investigative journalist Chris Papstfrom Fox45 News’ Project Baltimore dropped a bombshell:
“STUNNING: Baltimore City Schools received 29 federal Covid grants totaling $799M to fight learning loss. Yet, in 2023, just 9.1% of all 3rd-8th graders tested proficient in math. MEANING, taxpayers gave an additional $799M and 91% of Baltimore students are NOT math proficient.”
Maryland’s spending on education stands at some of the highest in the country. In Baltimore City, the school district’s budget is the fourth largest in the nation. Even extra Covid funds weren’t enough to push the needle to drastically improve math test scores.
Folks on X, formerly known as Twitter, are raising questions about the whereabouts of the funds:
Are local and state officials misappropriating taxpayers’ dollars?
Why aren’t more taxpayers outraged? It’s your money.
END
Purchasing power of homebuyers have taken a huge hit as affordability is the name of the game for survival
(zerohedge)
Purchasing Power Of Homebuyers Has Taken A Big Hit
WEDNESDAY, AUG 30, 2023 – 07:45 AM
Redfin’s latest report reveals that skyrocketing mortgage rates, the highest in twenty years, have dramatically eroded the purchasing power of homebuyers over the past 18 months.
A homebuyer on a $3,000 monthly budget can only afford a $429,000 home with a 30-year fixed mortgage rate of around 7.3%. That buyer lost $71,000 in purchasing power since August 2022, when they could’ve afforded a $500,000 home with an average rate of around 5.5%. In December 2020, that same buyer could’ve afforded a $629,000 home.
The combination of a high monthly mortgage and low inventory has levitated home prices, sparking an affordability crisis.
Last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that US mortgage rates rose to the highest level since late 2000, sending a key measure of demand down to the lowest in nearly three decades.
We noted in July the entire housing market is in “paralysis,” with the lowest turnover rate on record. In other words, homeowners are reluctant to move and take on a higher mortgage rate, while prospective homebuyers can’t afford pricey homes.
Mortgage rates tend to track Treasury bonds. Rates on swap contracts referencing future Fed policy meetings suggest the federal funds rate could be hiked an additional 15 bps by year-end.
While Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White recently noted US inflation is poised to begin re-accelerating again, Morgan Stanley Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya pointed out an opposing view that China could enter a debt-deflation loop that will spread disinflation worldwide.
They wanted to fundamentally transform America, and they have succeeded. So now instead of a “Leave It To Beaver” society, we have a society where literally anything goes. Our families are disintegrating, traditional moral values have been completely discarded, our young people are running wild in the streets, crime is totally out of control, and our system of government is melting down right in front of our eyes. So what is going to happen to our once great nation if things just continue to get even worse?
Our politicians like to tell us that “America is great because America is good”.
But the truth is that America stopped being good a long time ago.
The following are 10 signs that U.S. culture is being turned completely upside down…
#1 It has finally happened. The elite have such disdain for the choices of average Americans that some of them are starting to float the idea that elections should be eliminated. The following comes from an article that the New York Times published just last week that was originally entitled “Elections Are Bad for Democracy”…
On the eve of the first debate of the 2024 presidential race, trust in government is rivaling historic lows. Officials have been working hard to safeguard elections and assure citizens of their integrity. But if we want public office to have integrity, we might be better off eliminating elections altogether.
If you think that sounds anti-democratic, think again. The ancient Greeks invented democracy, and in Athens many government officials were selected through sortition — a random lottery from a pool of candidates. In the United States, we already use a version of a lottery to select jurors. What if we did the same with mayors, governors, legislators, justices and even presidents?
#2 The war on the family continues to escalate, and it is now being projected that 45 percent of all U.S. women in their “prime working years” will be single and childless in 2030…
We’re told by our culture that a woman who is unmarried and has no children is empowered and in charge of her own life. She has escaped the unnecessary burden of raising a family and being a slave to her husband. At least, that’s what our society has convinced us. Sadly, many women have adopted the modern feminist lifestyle and have chosen to sleep around, abort their baby if they unexpectedly get pregnant, and swear off marriage. But these cultural trends are going to have a tremendous impact on the future of American society. Morgan Stanley estimates that 45% of women in their “prime working years” (ages 25 to 44) will be single and childless by the time 2030 arrives.
#3 Theft is going to cost U.S. retailers more than 100 billion dollars this year, and at this point organized retail crime has become such a crisis that even Dollar Tree is being forced to take drastic measures…
The company, which runs Dollar Tree and Family Dollar, has “several new shrink formats” that it intends to roll out in the final six months of the year, CEO Rick Dreiling said in the morning. “Shrink” typically means theft and other types of inventory losses in the retail industry.
“It goes everything from moving certain SKUs [stock-keeping units] to behind the check stand,” he explained to those who tuned into the company’s earnings call. “It has to do with some cases being locked up. And even to the point where we have some stores that can’t keep a certain SKU on the shelf just discontinuing the item.”
#4 When I was young, I actually applied to go to school at Yale. At that time, it was one of the most prestigious universities in the entire world. Unfortunately, at this point violent crime in the city of New Haven is off the charts…
Yale University is rushing to reassure freshman students and parents after the school’s police union, which in the midst of contract negotiations, distributed flyers with stark warnings about high crime in New Haven, Connecticut — complete with a graphic of a grim reaper. They warned incoming students to avoid walking alone and avoid public transport. Forget night life: Student should stay in their dorms and “off the streets after 8 PM.”
Presented by the Yale Police Benevolent Association as “A Survival Guide for First-Year Students of Yale University,” the flyers were distributed on freshman move-in day. “The incidence of crime and violence in New Haven is shockingly high, and it is getting worse,” the flyers warned. “During the seven month period ending July 23, 2023, murders have doubled, burglaries are up 33% and motor vehicle thefts are up 56%.”
#5 One man in Texas was just “forcibly removed” from a school board meeting for reading a book that had actually been available in the libraries of that school district…
A man was forcibly removed from a Tuesday school board meeting by law enforcement while reading a passage from a sexually explicit LGBT book that was previously available in the district’s libraries.
Mike Cee was escorted out of a Fort Worth Independent School District board meeting this week when he began reading vulgar passages from the book “Flamer” by Mike Curato.
Curato’s book is described as a “semi-autobiographical graphic novel” set in 1995 that follows the story of a child named Aiden as he “navigates friendships, deals with bullies, and spends time with Elias (a boy he can’t stop thinking about), he finds himself on a path of self-discovery and acceptance.”
#6 It seems like there is a mass shooting somewhere in America almost every day now. The latest incident just occurred in the city of Jacksonville, Florida…
Terrifying video shows the moment a crazed, racist gunman enters a Jacksonville Dollar General armed with an AR-15 and then shoots dead three people in a racially-motivated attack.
The gunman was identified as Ryan Palmeter, 21, police confirmed on Sunday. They also detailed a manifesto he left behind, calling it the ‘diary of a madman.’
Palmeter used an assault rifle covered in Nazi swastikas in the deadly assault on Saturday before turning the gun on himself, according to the Jacksonville Sheriff’s Office.
#7 Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson is admitting that vehicle theft is completely out of control in his city, but instead of going after the thieves he has filed a lawsuit against Kia and Hyundai…
Democratic Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson’s office announced that the city filed the lawsuit against automakers Kia and Hyundai, alleging that both companies have failed to include “industry-standard engine immobilizers” in several models of vehicles, which resulted in a “steep rise” in crime.
“The impact of car theft on Chicago residents can be deeply destabilizing, particularly for low- to middle-income workers who have fewer options for getting to work and taking care of their families,” Johnson said. “The failure of Kia and Hyundai to install basic auto-theft prevention technology in these models is sheer negligence, and as a result, a citywide and nationwide crime spree around automobile theft has been unfolding right before our eyes.”
#8 Instead of cracking down on crime, federal law enforcement authorities are using their resources to raid Amish cattle farmers…
“They came with a search warrant,” softly spoke Samuel B. Fisher, a mild-mannered cattle farmer operating a 100-acre farm tucked away in Virginia’s heartland. Fisher’s bread-and-butter, Golden Valley Farms, carves out the scenic countryside that’s a hop, skip, and a jump away from historic Farmville, a postcard-perfect small Southern town with classical Main Street charm.
The father of five had graciously invited us down to his idyllic pasture to rehash the whirlwind of unforeseen events that unfolded over the cruel summer. It was a tumultuous time on the Fisher farm, an upheaval that threatened to upend the man’s livelihood.
“Then, they tagged the meat, so that we can’t touch it; we can’t sell it; we can’t feed our family with it,” Fisher told Townhall.
Transgender surgeries nearly tripled in the United States between 2016 and 2019, with breast and chest procedures accounting for 56.6 percent of all operations, results of a study published Wednesday in the JAMA Network Open show.
Close behind was genital reconstruction, making up 35.1 percent, followed by facial and cosmetic procedures at 13.9 percent. The greatest number of procedures overall were undergone by women, 19- to 30-year-olds, people with private insurance, and people with higher incomes. Most procedures occurred in the West and were performed in urban teaching hospitals.
#10 Joe Biden is asking Congress for money for a new shot, and he is admitting that it “will likely be recommended everybody get it no matter whether they’ve gotten it before or not”…
Biden, who is vacationing in the Lake Tahoe area, was asked by a reporter on Friday if he could say anything about the uptick of COVID cases and a new variant.
“Yes, I can,” the president said. “I signed off this morning on a proposal we have to present to Congress a request for additional funding for a new vaccine that is necessary, that works.”
He added, “Tentatively it is recommended that it will likely be recommended everybody get it no matter whether they’ve gotten it before or not.”
Our society is going to continue to change.
Nothing can stop that.
But the direction of the change can be altered.
Those that have been transforming our culture are just going to keep on doing what they have been doing, and all that it is going to take for them to succeed is for good people to stand by and do nothing.
END
AirBnB crashes!!
AirBnB Bubble Bursts: Investor Home Purchases Crash 45% In Biggest Drop Since 2008
WEDNESDAY, AUG 30, 2023 – 01:05 PM
Earlier this week, we wrote that the bursting of the AirBnB bubble will also pop the broader housing bubble, which has shown remarkable resilience in the face of the highest interest rates since Volcker, largely the result of a staggering divergence between effective mortgage rates (since almost everyone refinanced into a 30Y mortgage when rates were at record lows a few years back and is locked into a nice, low rate for a long, long time… or until they sell) and current 30Y mortgages, which at 7.5% nobody can afford.
So back to the coming AirBnB fiasco, today the real estate experts at RedFin wrote that investor home purchases fell 45% from a year earlier in the second quarter, outpacing the 31% drop in overall home sales. That’s the biggest decline since 2008 with the exception of the quarter before, when they dropped 48%.
The decline comes as this year’s relatively cool housing and rental markets makes investing in homes less attractive than it was during the pandemic-driven homebuying frenzy of 2021 and early 2022, when record numbers of AirBnB were purchased as hotel and lodging surrogates (Redfin defines an investor as any institution or business that purchases residential real estate).
The drop in purchases has brought the total number of homes bought by investors below pre-pandemic levels, which is a major concern for a market where investors remained the last remaining support pillar now that most average Americans seeking to buy their first home are simply unable to afford it and are stuck renting indefinitely.
Real estate investors bought roughly 50,000 U.S. homes in the second quarter, the fewest of any second quarter in seven years, with the exception of the start of the pandemic.
As Redfin notes, the plunge marks a retreat from a boom in investor activity during the pandemic, which was driven by record-low mortgage rates and huge homebuying and rental demand, creating opportunities for investors to make a lot of money.
“Offers from hedge funds have dried up; I haven’t received an offer from one in a long time, except unrealistically low offers,” said Las Vegas Redfin Premier agent Shay Stein. “From mid-2020 until early 2022 when interest rates started going up, hedge funds bought up a ton of properties and immediately turned them into rentals, pricing out local buyers. Now a big portion of our homes are owned by investors, but they’re not adding to their portfolios.”
In dollar terms, the drop in investor purchases is almost as big. Investors bought a total of $36.4 billion worth of homes in the second quarter, down 42% from a year earlier. That’s still above pre-pandemic levels, but dropping closer to it: Investors bought a total of $34 billion in the second quarter of 2018, and a total of $31.9 billion in the second quarter of 2019. The typical home purchased by investors in the second quarter cost $470,120, comparable with the $467,885 median price a year earlier.
In terms of market share, investors bought 15.6% of homes that were sold in the U.S. during the second quarter, down from 19.7% a year earlier and a record high of 20.4% in the beginning of 2022.
And while investors’ market share is still above pre-pandemic levels (15.6% compared with roughly 14% in the second quarters of both 2018 and 2019), real estate investors are steadily pulling back. Their market share has dropped or remained flat every quarter since it peaked at the start of 2022.
The outsized drop in purchases by investors helps explain why their market share is coming down: Investors backed off from the housing market faster than individual homebuyers in the second quarter.
Stubbornly high home prices and mortgage rates, limited inventory and widespread economic uncertainty have dampened housing demand and suppressed overall home sales. Those factors are an even bigger deterrent for investors, because they’re in it purely for the potential to make money by flipping homes or renting them out. When housing demand is down, investors are less motivated. There’s always at least some demand from individual buyers who need to move, but the same isn’t true for investors.
Additionally, investors themselves were deterred by high home prices and high interest rates. Roughly 7 of every 10 (71%) investor purchases were made in cash in the second quarter–down from 75% a year earlier–but they’re still impacted by high interest rates because they often use other types of loans to cover expenses.
“Moving forward, the investors who do come back may be more focused on scooping up rental properties than flipping homes,” said Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari. “All signs point to the rental market remaining relatively strong. Home prices and mortgage rates are high enough to motivate would-be first-time homebuyers to continue renting. The typical U.S. asking rent remains quite high, just $16 shy of its all-time high, so investors who are landlords stand to earn money. Investor purchases of rental properties could be limited by some of them building new properties to rent out, though.”
“Home flippers may be slower to come back,” Bokhari continued. “That’s mainly because mortgage rates are unlikely to decline significantly in the short term, which will keep homebuying demand relatively low and discourage flippers. Plus, investors have lower-risk places to park their money right now than real estate, with high yields in the bond market.”
Even if investors’ market share does pick back up, their purchase volume is likely to remain low. Like other buyers, they’re limited by a severe lack of listings, with homeowners locked in by relatively low mortgage rates.
Investors’ share of new listings is falling–but those who are selling are seeing big gains
Homes owned by investors are making up a smaller share of new listings on the market. Investors owned 8% of new listings in March, down slightly from 9% a year earlier and down from a peak of 13% at the end of 2021. Investors listed 36% fewer homes than a year earlier, compared with a 24% drop in overall new listings. March is the most recent month for which this data is available.
Most investors who are still flipping homes are making money. The typical home flipper who sold a home in June sold for 61% ($188,448) more than their initial purchase price. Though that’s a substantial gain, it’s down from a 69% ($199,946) premium a year earlier.
Just 3% of homes sold by flippers sold at a loss in June, down from a peak of 29% in September 2022 and roughly on par with 4% a year earlier.
“Investors aren’t helping to solve the country’s severe inventory shortage or its housing affordability crisis,” Bokhari said. “Flippers are putting far fewer homes on the market than they were during the same period in 2021 or 2022, and hardly any of them are taking a loss, which would at least give individual homebuyers a somewhat good deal. And the steady decline in investor purchases means they aren’t likely to replenish the housing market with newly renovated homes anytime soon.”
In this section, “ flipper” refers to an investor who sold a home within nine months of buying it. Additionally, flippers selling at a higher price than they bought doesn’t necessarily equal profit because it doesn’t take into account the money they spent renovating it.
Investors most commonly buy low-priced homes
Investors bought 23% of low-priced homes that sold in the second quarter, down from 25% a year earlier but still much higher than investors’ market share for more expensive homes. They bought 11% of mid-priced homes, down from 19% a year earlier, and 14% of high-priced homes, down from 16% a year earlier.
Investors are attracted to low-priced homes for the same reason as other homebuyers: They cost less, which is especially attractive when home prices and interest and mortgage rates remain elevated. Investors who are buying homes to flip and re-sell are doing so in hopes that they can buy low and sell higher. Small homes–those with 1,400 square feet or less–made up 39.2% of investor purchases in the second quarter, the highest share of any second quarter on record and down just slightly from the record high of 40.6% in the first quarter of 2023.
In that same vein, low-priced homes low-priced homes make up a substantial piece of investors’ homebuying pie. Low-priced homes made up 46% of investor purchases in the second quarter, up from 39% a year earlier. High-priced homes made up 31% of investor purchases, up from 29% a year earlier.
The uptick for the most affordable and the most expensive homes has cut into the share of mid-priced homes. Mid-priced homes made up 23% of investor purchases, down from a near-record-high of 32% a year earlier.
Single-family homes represent nearly 7 in 10 investor purchases
Single-family homes made up 68% of investor purchases in the second quarter. That’s down from 73% a year earlier, but still the lion’s share of purchases by real estate investors. The decline is partly due to a lack of single-family homes for sale.
Next come condos, which made up 20% of investor purchases, up from 16% a year earlier and the highest share since 2018. Townhouses made up 7% of purchases, followed by multi-family properties, which accounted for 5%.
But in terms of market share, investors have the highest when it comes to multi-family properties. Real estate investors purchased 31% of multi-family properties that sold in the second quarter, just shy of 32% a year earlier. Investors make up a relatively high share of multi-family purchases because those buildings are typically expensive and used as rental properties.
Investors purchased 15% of single-family homes, down from 20% a year earlier. Investors bought roughly one out of every six condos and townhouses that sold, on par with last year.
Metro-level highlights: Investor activity
The highlights below are for the second quarter of 2023, unless otherwise noted
Metros where investor market share dropped most. Investors bought roughly 17% of homes sold in Phoenix, down from 32% a year earlier, the biggest decline of the metros in this analysis. The next-biggest drops were in Las Vegas and Atlanta, where roughly 18% of homes were bought by investors, down from about 33%. Jacksonville, FL (19%, down from 32%) and Charlotte, NC (16%, down from 29%) round out the top five. Investor market share–and investor purchases (see below)–fell most in the Sun Belt and Florida because those places had an even bigger boom in homebuying demand and investor activity than the rest of the country in 2021 and 2022. Now investors are pulling back quickly as those markets cool. Plus, several of those metros were popular among the iBuyer type of investor, many of which have now ceased operations.
Metros where investor market share increased most. Investor market share fell in 25 of the metros in this analysis, and rose in the other 14–all modest increases. The biggest increase was in New York, where investors bought 18% of homes sold, up from about 16% a year earlier. Next come Seattle (11%, up from about 9%), Cleveland (20%, up from about 18%), Chicago (11%, up from about 10%) and Riverside, CA (19%, up from about 18%).
Metros where investor purchases dropped most. Investor purchases dropped most in the same places where market share declined most. They dropped 65% year over year in Las Vegas, Jacksonville and Phoenix, the biggest declines of the metros in this analysis. They’re followed closely by Atlanta (-64%) and Charlotte, NC (-62%).
Metros with the smallest declines in investor purchases. Investor purchases fell in all the metros Redfin analyzed, but they had the smallest year-over-year declines in Chicago (-13%), Providence, RI (-22%), West Palm Beach, FL (-23%), Seattle (-23%) and Cleveland (-25%).
Metros with the highest market share. Investors had the highest market share in Miami, where they made 30% of home purchases. Next come three California metros: San Diego (22%), Anaheim, CA (21%) and San Francisco (21%). Cleveland (20%) rounds out the top five. Miami’s market share is high and holding steady (it’s down just 1 percentage point year over year) because it remains popular with both U.S. and foreign investors as its housing market has stayed relatively hot throughout this downturn.
Metros with the highest median sale price of investor-bought homes. The median price of homes bought by investors in both San Francisco and San Jose was $1.8 million, by far the highest of the metros in this analysis. Next come three other California metros: Anaheim ($1.2 million), Oakland ($1.1 million) and Los Angeles ($1 million).
Metros with the highest share of investor-owned new listings (March 2023): Miami (15%), Fort Lauderdale (12%) and Los Angeles (11%).
Metros with the lowest share of investor-owned new listings (March 2023): Seattle (4%) and Providence, RI (4%).
Metros with the highest share of investor-owned properties selling at a loss (June 2023): Detroit (14%), Phoenix (13%), San Francisco (12%) and Las Vegas (11%).
Metros with the lowest share of investor-owned properties selling at a loss (June 2023): Columbus, OH (1%), San Diego (2%) and Miami (2%).
More in the full report from Redfin
END
He had what I had: a mini stroke
McConnell Malfunctions: Senate Minority Leader Glitches Hard In Shocking Second Incident
WEDNESDAY, AUG 30, 2023 – 01:30 PM
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell froze up on Wednesday in the second recent incident involving cognition.
After being asked about running for reelection in 2026, the 81-year-old McConnell mumbled something, stared off into the distance, and then couldn’t recover despite an aide repeating the question. The aide then ended the event.
BREAKING NEWS: Sen. Mitch McConnell appearing to have another scary episode in the media gaggle in Covington today. Aides had to step in to help him out and repeat questions. He was eventually lead away. We’ll have the full video on @WLWTpic.twitter.com/q9ex5MHxLV— Hannah Thomas (@HannahPThomas) August 30, 2023
Four weeks ago, McConnell stopped speaking during a weekly GOP leadership news conference and was also escorted away.
Flag: McConnell just stopped abruptly during his opening statement during the gop leadership presser and appeared to be unable to restart talking. He then stepped away and walked away with Barrasso: pic.twitter.com/f1kFUjggzm— Frank Thorp V (@frankthorp) July 26, 2023
McConnell’s first freeze came days after he tripped and fell at the Washington DC airport.
The average age in Congress has increased sharply over the past several decades. Whereas in the 1980s, only about 5 percent of Congress was over 70, now almost 25 percent is.https://t.co/cGpuf0YBIZpic.twitter.com/g4R62LkKND— Ken Klippenstein (@kenklippenstein) July 27, 2023
end
USA// COVID//VACCINE/
SWAMP STORIES
Mystery Swirls Over Batch Of Thousands Of 2020 Voter Registration Forms In Michigan
Two weeks before the 2020 election, a woman dropped off more than 10,000 voter registration forms with a city clerk in Muskegon, Michigan.
The number of forms was a red flag for the city clerk, Ann Meisch. Less than 4,000 of the city’s voting-age residents weren’t registered to vote.
Ms. Meisch called the police, triggering an investigation by the Michigan State Police. An Oct. 26, 2020, police report from that probe recently surfaced after Michigan state lawmakers obtained it through a Freedom of Information request.
At the time, Brianna Hawkins, the woman who delivered the forms, was employed by GBI Strategies, an out-of-state firm working to boost Democrat voter turnout in urban centers in key swing states to help then-candidate Joe Biden defeat President Donald Trump. According to the police report, when questioned by Muskegon Police Department investigators, Ms. Hawkins said her job was to register voters and help them obtain absentee ballots.
State Republican Party officials Phil O’Halloran and Lori Skibo obtained the police report. Mr. O’Halloran provided it to The Epoch Times.
An article by a nationally known fact-checking service disputed recent conservative media accounts of the Muskegon episode.
“While the total number of voter registration forms submitted by that person may add up to as much as 12,500, very few of them were deemed to be fraudulent,” the fact checker said.
“Page 3 of the MSP [Michigan State Police] report says Meisch ‘turned over 42 suspected fraudulent applications to Officer Foster [of the Muskegon Police Department] for examination.’”
The fact checker didn’t state that the 42 applications were a sampling.
Checking the Fact-checkers
However, the numbers tell a different story and raise a question: If there were only 42 suspected fraudulent voter registration applications submitted to the city clerk, why didn’t she register the rest of the batch?
In 2020, the population of the City of Muskegon was 38,309, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Of these, 29,800 people were of voting age.
Ms. Meisch told The Epoch Times in an August 10 email that in 2019, there were 25,957 registered voters in the city. In 2020, the number of people registered to vote increased by 2,077 to 28,034.
That means the pool of voting-age people not registered to vote that Ms. Hawkins had to work with was only 3,843.
Ms. Hawkins dropped off more than 10,000 voter registration forms in incremental batches, suggesting that thousands of the forms never made it onto the city’s registered voter roll.
“Even a casual observer can readily see that something is wrong. The numbers do not add up. The number of registration forms turned in by one person represents a third of the population of the city,” Mr. O’Halloran told The Epoch Times.
Clerk Suddenly ‘Cannot Speak’
The Epoch Times later contacted the city clerk with two more questions: Where did the completed voter registration forms filed by Ms. Hawkins come from, and are those extra voter registration forms that were rejected by her office in her custody?
In other words, what happened to the 10,423 voter registration forms that didn’t result in a person being added to the city’s voter roll?
Ms. Meisch replied in an Aug. 13 email: “I cannot speak to the facts of the case at this time. I am sorry that I cannot be of more help.”
According to the 2020 police report, Ms. Meisch told authorities that some of the irregularities found on the voter registration forms submitted by Ms. Hawkins included invalid and nonexistent addresses, erroneous phone numbers, signatures that didn’t match those on existing records, and numerous forms that appeared to be filled out and signed by the same hand.
Sixteen GOP 2020 electors lawfully nominated by the Michigan Republican Party to cast electoral college votes for President Trump if he carried the state were indicted in July by Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, a Democrat, on fraud charges for allegedly knowingly and willfully advancing the “false claim” that there was large-scale voter fraud in the state during the 2020 presidential election.
Mr. O’Halloran told The Epoch Times that he hopes the exposure of the Muskegon case will help exonerate the Republican electors. He called it a “cruel irony” that Ms. Nessel, who he says appears to have helped bury “a state investigation into what appears to be actual forgery of election documents,” is prosecuting “the innocent Michigan 16 for a contrived ‘forgery’ in a case that hinges on the AG’s contention that there was ‘no evidence of fraud.'”
Attorneys for some of the 16 Trump electors argue that their clients merely positioned themselves as place-holders ready to legally step in if ongoing investigations into voter fraud determined that President Trump won the state of Michigan in 2020.
“Things Are Very Different Now”
Mr. O’Halloran, chairman of the state party’s election integrity committee, told The Epoch Times in an Aug. 21 interview that he and Ms. Skibo were motivated in their efforts by state GOP Chair Kristina Karamo, who encouraged them to “research the facts, make sure they are legit.”
Ms. Skibo told The Epoch Times that it was a Republican precinct delegate from Muskegon who brought the 2020 incident into the spotlight.
“The person saw something wrong and did something about it,” she said.
Now head of the poll challenger operation for the state party, Ms. Skibo remembered her own days as a precinct delegate and volunteer challenger at Detroit’s central vote-counting center in 2020.
“After seeing all the irregularities that night, I really believed that a team of Republican Party attorneys were going to show up the next morning demanding answers. I remember how angry I was when the state party did absolutely nothing,” she said.
“Things are very different now that we have a truly grassroots-led party.”
The actions of the two high-ranking Michigan Republican Party officials are a sea change compared with the position previously taken by a GOP-led state Senate panel. The panel released a report in June 2021 stating that its investigation could find “no systematic fraud” in the 2020 election.
What Happened to the Muskegon Probe?
Participants in the Muskegon investigation in 2020 were the Muskegon City Police, the Michigan State Police, the Michigan Attorney General’s Office, representatives of the Michigan Secretary of State’s Office, and, according to Michigan State Police records, the FBI.
On Aug. 14, The Epoch Times asked the FBI’s national press office whether the bureau is currently investigating or has ever investigated the Muskegon case, and if so, what’s the status or outcome of their probe.
During a discussion with the House Foreign Affairs Committee Tuesday, Gold Star father Mark Schmitz labeled Joe Biden a “disgrace” and an “asshole”.
The committee is investigating the botched Afghanistan withdrawal and the suicide bombing in August 2021 at Kabul airport that killed 13 U.S. service members
Schmitz, who lost his son during the attack, Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Jared Schmitz, said Biden has “more American blood” on his hands “than any president in U.S. history.”
“Not a single person has been held accountable,” Schmitz urged, adding “Our so-called leader can’t seem to even utter their names in public, not even once.”
Addressing Biden, he said ‘You, sir, stole their lives, their futures, their dreams and have ripped apart 13 families.”
“Two years has gone by, and where are we? To be frank, we’re knee deep in bulls***, is where we are,” Schmitz asserted, adding ““Everyone who held a key position in the military still has that position or has been promoted.”
Again addressing Biden, he continued, “we’ve seen the way you’ve been treating us as Gold Star families. And there couldn’t be anything more disgusting and cowardly than the way you have treated us. You are a disgrace to this nation. You have no business having ultimate command over our military, and I regret not saying that to your face when I had the opportunity in Dover.”
During early Asian trading on Tuesday, someone relentlessly bought CSI 300 futures. Traders quickly surmised that China was rigging their stock markets. The CSI hit a peak of 3808.28 at the 1 ET Nikkei close. After a sharp decline it rebounded until 1:40 ET and then went inert. ESUs trade mostly higher, but in a tight range, until they moved rallied after the 1 ET Nikkei close. After the usual rally into and after the European close, ESUs peaked at 3:30 ET. The dumpers then dumped; ESUs slid 16.25 by 4:25 ET. After a moderate rally, ESUs headed south again at 6:08 ET. The ESU daily low (4433.50) appeared at 8:28 ET. It was time to load up for the standard Pump & Dup for the NYSE opening. Bulls caught a huge break when the July JOLTS Job Openings, released at 10 ET, showed 8.827m jobs, fewest since March 2021; 9.5m was expected. June Job Openings were revised to 9.165m from 9.582m. The usual suspects immediately proclaimed the Fed MUST skip rate hikes for the foreseeable future. Others brayed that the Fed Pivot was nigh! ESUs went nearly vertical, hitting 4482.25 at 10:34 ET. Once again, we must remark that: 1) There is too much liquidity in the system and most of it eventually ends up in financial speculation; and 2) Most equity traders and many investors have a greater fear of missing a rally than suffering a decline. @OccupytheFeds: FED bought >$103 Billion USTs in August so far, >$23B in past 2 days alone. Imagine if QT was REAL instead of reinvestment caps, “inflation” would be back to a bogus 2%…https://twitter.com/OccupytheFeds/status/1696572562686308455 After a decline to 4469.25 at 10:48 ET, the rally for the 11:30 ET European close commenced. ESUs jumped to new highs and hit a peak of 4494.25 at 11:45 ET. After a modest respite, ESUs make a new high of 4499.25 at 12:26 ET. When traders realized there wasn’t an appetite to push ESU through 4500, they rested. When the afternoon arrived, ESUs inched higher, zig-zag action, until they peaked at 4509.00 at 15:44 ET. ESUs and stocks then traded sideways into the close. The June FHFA House Price Index increased 0.3% m/m with 0.6% expected. However, S&P CoreLogic (private sector) 20-city house price survey shows house inflation at 0.92% m/m and -1.17% for June. 0.8% m/m and -1.6% y/y were expected. Apple Sets Sept. 12 for Launch of iPhone 15, New Watches – BBG 12:01 ET Apple jumped as much as 2.6% because traders are conditioned to buy Apple ahead of its product events. Good Riddance to Fed’s Misguided Obsession with Job Openings – Op-ed in WaPoIt has been a remarkable journey from obscurity to prominence for the JOLTS report… it was fairly unusual for policymakers to discuss job openings as ear recently as 2021, but mentions in Fed speeches, press conferences, minutes and the Beige Book skyrocketed around mid-2021…https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/08/29/jolts-good-riddance-to-fed-s-misguided-obsession-with-job-openings/13bf76cc-469f-11ee-b76b-0b6e5e92090d_story.htmlWake up to the truth about JOLTS numbers (Multiple job requests for the same job!)https://nypost.com/2015/05/11/wake-up-to-the-truth-about-jolts-numbers/Positive aspects of previous session.Stocks and bonds soared on the dubious JOLTS Job Openings for July data Negative aspects of previous sessionHousing inflation in June was greater than expected when calculated by the private sectorAmbiguous aspects of previous sessionWhat financial evil will China produce?First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: UpPivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4476.48Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4450.14; 4431.68 The FT: Goldman bought UK and US companies using Chinese state fundsThe Wall Street bank has made seven deals using cash from a $2.5 billion private equity “partnership fund” it set up in 2017 with the sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corporation…https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/60700-goldman-sachs-bought-us-companies-with-chinese-state-fundsCovid to blame for just 1% of weekly deaths from all causes across the US, CDC data showshttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12453329/Covid-blame-just-1-weekly-deaths-causes.html‘Total lack of critical thinking’: Experts question COVID vax, mask mandates amid ‘surge’Governments and private entities are using a small rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations and new viral variants to juice interest in bivalent boosters that only 1 in 6 Americans have taken and to urge a return to routine masking, if not outright mandating new jabs and face coverings…What they aren’t providing is robust evidence for the effectiveness of the interventions against infection by a virus that has already provided natural immunity to an estimated 19 in 20 Americans as of November 2022, according to Harvard research published in this month’s journal Clinical Infectious Diseases…Even President Biden acknowledged current COVID vaccines… are not performing as hoped. He said at a press gaggle Friday he’s planning to ask Congress for additional funding for a new vaccine “that works”…The CDC warned last week that a new variant, BA.2.86, only diagnosed in nine people worldwide and two in the U.S. at the time, “may be more capable of causing infection” in the naturally immune and vaccinated…https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/total-lack-critical-thinking-experts-question-covid-vax-mask-mandatesThat Taxin’ Town – High business taxes are driving more Chicago businesses away…During the past decade, Chicago’s commercial property taxes have jumped 93 percent. The city taxes commercial properties at 3.78 percent of their value each year… Consider the plight of the Marinos family, owners of Bel Mar Wire Products in Bucktown. Their journey embodies the American Dream—immigrants who built a stable, family-owned manufacturing firm. But in December 2022, they were ambushed by a nearly 400 percent property-tax hike. Their massive tax bill forced them to let half of their dedicated workforce go…https://www.city-journal.org/article/that-taxin-townUnder Armour exec Kevin Plank, TV anchor Stephanie Ruhle spoke through private phone ‘at all hours’: lawsuit – The MSNBC host was also sent a secret recording of a conversation that Plank had with another Under Armour executive about the company’s finances, according to court papers cited by The Wall Street Journal…Ruhle, who worked as an executive at Deutsche Bank before transitioning to a career in journalism in 2011, was known to take trips with Plank on a private jet and even gave him public relations advice while she was anchor at Bloomberg…https://nypost.com/2023/08/29/under-armours-kevin-plank-gave-stephanie-ruhle-private-phone-email/Today – Most equity traders are back in jiggy mode. Plus, August performance gaming is now operational. Traders will continue to buy dips and try to force stuff higher. The S&P 500 Index high yesterday was 4500.14. Bulls will make a determined attempt to force the S&P 500 Index decisively above 4500. If this occurs, and barring news, this is a virtually certainty, the key will be the ability of the S&P 500 Index to stay safely above 4500. The worst-case scenario for bulls is if after significantly breaching 4500, the index sinks back below 4500. This will signal a false breakout and alarm some bulls. Ironically, the higher stocks go the less chance that the Fed will “skip” on September 20. Of course Team Obama members of the Fed want stocks to go higher. 9/20 will be an interesting FOMC soiree! ESUs are +2.75 and USUs are -3/32 at 20:545 ET. Expected econ data: Q2 GDP 2.4%, Consumption 1.8%, GDP Price Index 2.2%, Core PCE 3.8%; Aug ADP Employment Change 195k; July Trade Balance -$9.0B; July Wholesale Inventories -0.3% m/m, Retail Inventories +0.5%; July Pending Homes Sales -1.0% m/m S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4460; 100-day MA: 4317; 150-day MA: 4220; 200-day MA: 4148DJIA 50-day MA: 34,678; 100-day MA: 35,136; 150-day MA: 33,800; 200-day MA: 33,754(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time framesMonthly: Trender andMACD are positive – a close below 3752.81 triggers a sell signalWeekly: Trender andMACD are negative – a close above 4586.76 triggers a buy signalDaily: Trender andMACD are positive – a close below 4363.78 triggers a sell signalHourly: Trender andMACD are positive – a close below 4424.13 triggers a sell signalFrightening analysis of China’s capacity to destroy US aircraft carriers:Carrier Strike Groups Should Be Ready to Go Dark in ConflictThe People’s Liberation Army has spent two decades training a counter-intervention force and building an anti-access/area denial zone that depends on a diverse, multi-domain battle network to either destroy or blind American aircraft carriers… After two decades of post-Cold War technological advancement, the information warfare community has grown complacent, dependent on advanced, data-intensive tools that may be degraded or ineffective in conflict. Only by developing and reinstating resilient, low-emission, and low-tech capabilities will carrier strike groups be able to neuter China’s anti-access/area denial threat and mount a formidable challenge to the adversary. https://warontherocks.com/2023/08/carrier-strike-groups-should-be-ready-to-go-dark-in-conflict/@RealAmVoice: John Solomon predicts more evidence coming soon that shows Joe and Hunter business ties. “Beginning of an avalanche”: @JustTheNews’ @jsolomonReports… https://twitter.com/RealAmVoice/status/1696604553737589065John Solomon: Government officials knew about Biden’s private email accountshttps://justthenews.com/videos/john-solomon-government-officials-knew-about-bidens-private-email-accountsJordan presses White House over meetings with Jack Smith staffer – The letter then proceeds to document the various meetings between Bratt and White House officials between 2021 and 2023.https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/jordan-presses-white-house-over-meetings-jack-smith-stafferJes Watters: Evidence suggests Joe Biden is personally running the prosecutions of Donald Trump – The Biden White House was more involved in the Mar-a-Lago raid than we ever realized, Watters sayshttps://www.foxnews.com/media/jesse-watters-evidence-suggests-joe-biden-personally-running-prosecutions-donald-trump@realDonaldTrump: It has just been reported that aides to TRUMP prosecutor, Deranged Jack Smith, met with high officials at the White House just prior to these political SleazeBags Indicating me OVER NOTHING. If this is so, which it is, that means that Biden and his Fascist Thugs knew and APPROVED of this Country dividing Form of Election Interference, despite their insisting that they “knew nothing.” It’s all a BIG LIE, just like Russia, Russia, Russia, & not knowing about son’s business dealings. DISMISS CASE!Ramaswamy’s ‘bought and paid for’ debate attack echoes similar line Trump was booed for in 2016Then-candidate Donald Trump’s comments scolding the “donors and special interests” in the audience resurfaced on social mediahttps://www.foxnews.com/politics/flashback-ramaswamys-bought-paid-for-debate-attack-echoes-similar-line-trump-booed-2016Shooting at White Sox game likely came from gun inside stadium, CPD says, but questions remainCPD has declined to release the initial police report…https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/chicago-white-sox-shooting-gauranteed-rate-field-brandon-johnson-shots/3216917/ @peggykusinski: As I reported on @ESPN1000 just now… the shooting at Guaranteed Rate Field during a #WhiteSox game was indeed an accidental discharge by one of the women “grazed” by the bullet. She reportedly snuck the gun in past metal detectors hiding it in the folds of her belly fat. Police at the scene knew something was amiss when the wounded woman refused medical attention – and remains unnamed. Now, reports allege the White Sox park accidental shooter is a Chicago teacher. It was Teachers’ Night at the ball park. Chicago’s mayor is an ex-teachers’ union official. Is the accidental shooter politically protected? Is this the reason for city officials’ nebulous remarks – The Chicago Way! Catalytic converter thief pleads guilty, gets probation (Chicago)Saterfield, who was on parole for a narcotics case at the time, also had an outstanding warrant for fleeing and eluding when police arrested him last August, prosecutors said…https://cwbchicago.com/2023/08/catalytic-converter-thief-pleads-guilty-gets-probation.html
Renowned radio host, filmmaker, book author and archeological dig expert Steve Quayle has been warning of very hard times coming for America. The Maui incineration is just another sign that hard times and evil have come to America. Let’s dive in on what Quayle says is “ The Maui Mess.” Quayle explains, “The very first thing this drone operator had to deal with was federal government agencies and agents that basically stopped him from flying his drone and wanted everything (pictures/videos) he had taken from them.”
There was a black fabric wall that went up around Lahaina this week. Quayle warns, “You are not to know the truth under any circumstances. The mainstream vomit brokers tried to control the narrative that all the evidence wouldn’t support. Then they have tried to contain, and that’s what the fence is for, it’s containing anything they don’t want you to see. Then they want to try to silence or kill the messengers because this is a deep black operation going on. I think people should understand there is no one left to appeal to. There are no courts. There is no justice system. There is no legal system. This is why we are in a total mess in this country. It doesn’t get any better from here. . . . I was told there were incendiary devices and incendiary pots that were strategically placed ahead of time.”
In short, the dark powers in America are covering up crime and mass murder. Quayle says many more crimes are going on now with massive wildfires in Canada and Europe. Quayle says, “They want the death of humanity. . . .What is happening are not acts of God. These are acts of men rebelling against God. They are using the technology of the most rebellious entities in the universe— ‘fallen angels and demons.’ The point now is we are watching targeted, weaponized attacks, primarily on red states. . . . Ladies and gentlemen, we are dealing with supernatural evil. Yes, supernatural evil motivating some of the most wicked and wealthy people in the world.”
Quayle also talks about how bad the banking system is doing with tons of defaulting debt, the need for cash and why the entire financial system might collapse before the end of the year.
There is much more in the 1-hour and 5-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter as he talks to radio host, filmmaker and top selling author Steve Quayle as he warns about hard times coming to America and the entire world for 8.29.23.
(This interview is sponsored by Satellite Phone Store (Sat123.com.) Huge savings at Satellite Phone Store can be found at BeReady123.com)
There is free information from Steve Quayle on GenSix.com.
If you want to get access to Steve Quayle’s vast network of sources, he has built up in more than three decades in radio, you can join his cutting-edge service called “SQ Private Briefing.” It’s only $149 per year, and Quayle puts out two private briefings every week.
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