SEPT 18/GOLD CLOSED UP $8.40 TO $1932.00 SILVER CLOSED UP 11 CENTS TO $23.20 //PLATINUM CLOSED UP $26.10 TO $936.65 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $2.65 TO $1248.45/GOOD GOLD COMMENTARY TODAY FROM MATHEW PIEPENBURG//CHINA EXPERIENCES HUGE OUTFLOWS OF DOLLARS AS ITS ECONOMY IS IMPLODING//ITALY OVERWHELMED WITH MIGRANT INFLUX///IRAN AND USA EXCHANGE PRISONERS IN A RANSOM DEAL//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE UPDATES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/NEW ADDICTS/EVOL NEWS//UAW STILL FAR APART IN THEIR NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE 3 CAR COMPANIES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 2
TOTAL: 2 2 MONTH TO DATE: 3,842
JPMorgan stopped 0/2 contracts.
FOR SEPT.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2023. CONTRACT: 2 NOTICES FOR 200 OZ or 0.0622 TONNES
total notices so far: 3842 contracts for 384,200 oz (11.9502 tonnes)
FOR SEPT:
SILVER NOTICES: 7 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 35,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2611 for 13,055,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $8.40
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 880,27 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 11 CENTS AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.651 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 441.332 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1088 CONTRACTS TO 125,698 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.16 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A HUGE SIZED 917 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: 917 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.16). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS DESPITE HAVING A HUMONGOUS SIZED LOSS OF 2677 CONTRACTS ON BOTH EXCHANGES WE HAD WITH CONSIDERABLE T.A.S.LIQUIDATION AT HIGHER PRICES THROUGHOUT THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION AS OUR SHORT SPECULATORS CAPITULATED AND COVERED WITH RECKLESS ABANDON.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 355 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 14.420 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL QUEUE JUMP OF 20,000 OZ//NEW TOTAL 13.385 MILLION OZ + OUR CRIMINAL ISSUANCE OF 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS//NEW TOTALS EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.0 MILLION OZ: NEW TOTALS SILVER STANDING: 16.385 MILLION OZ// /// / //HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 917CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -20 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 days, total 8389 contracts: OR 41.945 MILLION OZ (762 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 41.945 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 41.945 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1088 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.16 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 355 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 14.2 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 20,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP .+ 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//PRIOR TOTAL FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 3.0 MILLION OZ/TOTAL EXCH. FOR RISK /NEW TOTALS STANDING 16.385 MILLION OZ// /// WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 753 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 917 CONTRACTS//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION AS THE SHORTS CAPITULATED. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT (917) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 7 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 35,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 424 CONTRACTS TO 441,073 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED: 411 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 424 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR STRONG $13.20 GAIN IN PRICE//FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 12.656 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 200 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL STANDING 14.495 TONNES + /A FAIR (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 1133 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR$13.20 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 3268 OI CONTRACTS (10.164 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2844CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 441,484
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3268 CONTRACTS WITH 424 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2844 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3268CONTRACTS OR 10.164 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 1133 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2844 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (424) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3268 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 12.656 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 200 OZ/// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH STRONG TAS LIQUIDATION COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1133 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
SEPT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 26,113 CONTRACTS OR 2,611,300 OZ OR 81.222 TONNES IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2373 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 81.222 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 81.222/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.28% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 81.222 TONNES (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1088 CONTRACTS OI TO 125,698 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A FAIR 355 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 335and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 355 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1088 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 355 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 753 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 3.765 MILLION OZ
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
MONDAY MORNING//SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8,19 PTS OR 0.26% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 252.34 PTS OR 1.39%/ /The Nikkei CLOSED //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.73 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.2956 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.2975 /Oil UP TO 91.37 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 94.35 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 424CONTRACTS TO 441,073 DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $13.20 ON FRIDAY.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2844 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 2844 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2844 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 3268 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2844LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 424 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $13.20//FRIDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 1133 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: SEPT (14.500) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 14.500 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $13.20) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 3268 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF FRIDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 11.443 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (12.656 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 200 OZ//NEW STANDING 14.500 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $13.20.
WE HAD – REMOVED 411 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3268 CONTRACTS OR 326,800 OZ OR 10.164 TONNES.
Estimated gold volume today:// 135,347 awful
final gold volumes/yesterday 207,824 poor//speculators have left the gold arena
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3842 notices 384200 OZ 11.9502 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: NIL oz
customer deposits: 0
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 customer withdrawal
total withdrawals NIL oz
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER.
For the front month of SEPTEMBER we have an oi of 822 contracts having LOST 12 contracts. We had
14 contracts were served on FRIDAY, so we gained an additional 2 CONTRACTS or AN ADDITIONAL 200 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of Sept.
Oct LOST 883 contracts to 24,544 contracts.
NOV GAINED 3 CONTRACTS to stand at 23
December GAINED 860 contracts UP to 377,415 contracts.
We had 2 contracts filed for today representing 200 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 2 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3842 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (822 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 2 x 100 oz per contract equals 466,200 OZ OR 14.500 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non active month of SEPT.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTcontract month: No of notices filed so far (3842) x 100 oz + (822) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (2) x 100 oz) which equals 466,200 oz standing OR 14.500 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 14.500 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 20,878,273.020 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,801,765.332 (335,98 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,076,507.688 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,747,673 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 272.08 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
SEPT 18
//2023// THE SEPT 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
399,684.870 oz CNT
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
2983.10 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
7 CONTRACT(S) (35,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
66 contracts (330,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
2611 Contracts (13,055,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: 0
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposit customer account:
i) Into Delaware 2983.10 oz
total customer deposit 2983.10 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 136.901 million oz/272.385 million or 50.36%
Comex withdrawals 1
i) Out of CNT: 399,684.874 oz
total: 399,684.874 oz
adjustments: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 42.405 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 272.385 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF SEPT /2023 OI: 73 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 9 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 13
CONTRACT SERVED ON FRIDAY. SO WE GAINED 4 CONTRACTS OR 20,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX..
OCT LOST 60 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1083.
NOVEMBER GAINED 2 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 136
DEC. LOST 1935 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 113,251 .
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 7 for 35,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 45,226 poor
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 68,706 fair
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2611 x 5,000 oz = 13,055,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (73) and the number of notices served upon today 7 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the SEPT/2023 contract month: 2611 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPT (73) – number of notices served upon today (7 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates to 13.3850 million oz. + 0 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK..NEW TOTALS EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.0 MILLION OZ//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SILVER: 16.385 MILLION OZ//
There are 42.145 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 15/WITH GOLD UP $13.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.055 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.70 TONNES
SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.01 TONNES
SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.22 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.69 TONNES
SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.81 TONNES
SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES
SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES
AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD UP 17.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $6.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES
AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES
AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES
AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $21.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES
AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $2.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES
AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD UP $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 887.50 TONNES
AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.42 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 880.217 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
SEPT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.651 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.332 MILLION OZ
SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.681 MILLION OZ
SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1,009 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 11/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.373 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ
SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.625 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.834 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.210 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OF SILVER INTO THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 445.044 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.281 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.861 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.751 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.145 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.651 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.896 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 94 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.547 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 917,0000 OZ FROM THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 441.332 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
As Gold Hit New Record High In Yuan, Chinese Demand Improved In August
MONDAY, SEP 18, 2023 – 03:30 AM
Via SchiffGold.com,
Chinese gold demand improved on multiple fronts in August.
China ranks as the world’s biggest gold market.
While the price of gold declined in dollar terms last month, it was up 1.8% in yuan due to Chinese currency weakness.
With prices rising, gold has outperformed most other assets in China, according to data from the World Gold Council.
Gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) totaled 161 tons last month, reflecting strong wholesale demand for gold. This represented a 46-ton month-on-month increase.
Year-on-year, withdrawals from the SGE were down a modest 5 tons. According to the World Gold Council, this was “mainly due to 2022’s distorted seasonality amid COVID-related restrictions and a lower local gold price.”
Chinese Valentine’s Day and various jewelry fairs are scheduled in September. This will likely boost retail demand this month.
Also reflecting strong domestic gold demand, the Shanghai-London gold price spread averaged $40/oz in August, a new record high. This was a $23 per ounce month-on-month increase.
According to the WGC, “We believe improving gold demand and relatively tepid imports in recent months may have led to local demand and supply conditions tightening, pushing up the local gold price premium.”
Chinese gold import data lags by one month, so the July data is the most recent. China imported 107 tons of gold in July, 9 tons higher than June’s total. Compared to last year, imports were down 69 tons.
Chinese investors appear to be turning to gold. Metal flowed into Chinese gold-backed ETFs for the third straight month in August. Funds based in the country added 4.6 tons of metal, raising the total AUM to $3.6 billion.
During the month, poor equity market performance (CSI300: -6%) and continued local currency weakness drove many to safe-haven assets such as gold, which has delivered attractive returns so far in 2023.”
Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China added more gold to its reserves in August. It was the 10th straight month of gold buying for the Chinese central bank with an addition of 29 tons. The PBoC now officially holds 2,165 tons of gold.
You can read more about central bank gold buying HERE.
Looking ahead, the World Gold Council said an improved outlook for China’s economy could provide some support for local gold demand.
Also, various jewelry fairs and industry events may spur both manufacturers’ and retailers’ replenishing demand. Furthermore, with the National Day Holiday and Mid-Autumn Festival approaching, retailers’ inventory restocking is likely to continue.”
However, high gold prices could create some headwinds for the Chinese gold market.
Real BRICS Threat + The Worst Macros I’ve Ever Seen
Matthew Piepenburg September 17, 2023
In many recent articles and interviews, I’ve warned that Powell’s “higher for longer” war against inflation will actually (and ironically) lead to, well… greater inflation.
That is, the rising interest expense (nod to Powell) on Uncle Sam’s fatally rising 33T bar tab will inevitably need to be paid with an inflationary mouse-clicker at the Eccles Building.
I’ve also consistently maintained that Powell’s war on inflation is mostly just optics, as he secretly seeks inflation to help pay down that bar tab with an increasingly inflated/debased USD.
As John Williams recently argued, true inflation using an honest (rather than the openly bogus BLS) measure is now closer to 11.5% rather than the officially reported headline rate of 3.7%.
This should come as very little surprise to those whose eyes are open to the Modis Operandi of debt-soaked/failed regimes. As former European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker confessed: “When the data is too bad, we just lie.”
But even for those who still believe the current Truman Show inflation (and “soft landing”) narrative out of DC, the Bezos Post or legacy media A, B, or C, there’s more fire adding to the inflationary flames than just bogus narratives and calming platitudes.
In particular, I’m talking about oil-driven inflation, and nothing burns faster.
Scary Flames in the Oil Supply
Left or right, the dumb out of DC just keeps getting dumber.
Between rising rates (nod to Powell), which make capex investing untenable for US oil producers, and a Weekend at Bernie’s White House, which has spent years effectively legislating US oil into oblivion, US energy supply is falling, and we all know that weakening supply leads to higher prices—and inflation.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, whom that same White House called a “pariah state,” has not been warming to Biden’s awkward fist-pumps and increased production pleas, but rather joining other OPEC leaders in cutting, rather than expanding, oil production.
Gee, what a geopolitical shocker…
Net result, both national and global oil inventories are falling, and falling hard.
The Awkward Oil Two-Step
The once “go green” White House realized that the world, and inflation scales, still revolves around oil, especially after sanctioning Western Europe’s former energy supplier in one of the most short-sighted (i.e., stupid) policy decisions since the Iraq war.
This may explain why Biden changed his stripes and why there was a sudden pivot toward allowing greater US shale output in 2023 by pumping more cash into those shale fields at a pace not seen in 3 years.
Unfortunately, however, this may be too little too late (like Powell’s QT) to prevent oil price shocks and higher inflation into year end, thus adding insult to an already injured (and rising) US CPI measure of inflation.
As oil supply tightens, oil prices, and hence inflation rates, rise together with bond yields and interest rates—a perfect storm for over-inflated bond, stock, and real estate markets.
Those prices and inflation rates would be even worse if Chinese oil demand rises—which is why current Western headlines are literally praying for China to implode first. This might explain why The Economist has had two consecutive cover stories about an imploding China.
See how big media and big government sleep together?
Tying it Together
Regardless, we need to tie all this together.
If, as I see it, inflation (however misreported) becomes obviously more real and felt, the consequent rising bond yields will make the USD stronger and Uncle Sam’s bar tab more expensive, which hardy bodes well for America’s twin deficit black-hole of unpayable debt unless…
…Unless the Fed starts printing more fake and inflationary money to buy its own IOUs and weaken its export-killing, and BRICS-ignoring, USD.
Again, no matter how I turn the macros, the Fed will eventually have no choice but to pivot toward more instant liquidity and hence more inflationary policies to save/monetize its broke(n) bond markets.
Once this inevitability becomes a headline, the temporarily rising USD will be seen for what most of the informed world already recognizes—just another fiat monster backing a world reserve currency in the hands of a nation whose debt to GDP and deficit to GDP ratios mirror that of any other banana republic.
Reality is Hard to Look at Directly, But not for the BRICS
Many in the US or EU may not wish to see this. Bad news, like death and the sun, is hard to stare into.
But the BRICS nations, no strangers themselves to embarrassing balance sheets, are seeing this clearly.
Although I never bought into the gold-backed BRICS currency hype, I have zero doubt that this amalgam of commodity-heavy nations has a common enemy in the current US-dominated (and USD-driven) international trade system, whose hegemonic days are now numbered and whose alliances, as we warned from day-1 of the Putin sanctions (economic suicide), are forever de-dollarizing away from DC.
Moreover, the BRICS don’t need an “official” gold backed currency to trade their real assets in gold rather than Dollars. All they have to do, as Marcus Krall and I recently discussed, is request payment for their exports in gold.
The BRICS+ nations are hardly the perfect marriage of unlimited trust and efficient coordination. Nevertheless, they share an existential threat from an over-priced USD and negative-returning UST.
Never has the phrase the “enemy of my enemy is my friend” found a better home than among the rising list of BRICS+ actors who recognize that their very survival hinges upon escaping the suffocating death of paying > $14T of USD-dominated debts whose rising costs (rates) they can no longer afford lest they become vassals of DC.
As Luke Gromen recently observed, from the perspective of the BRICS nations, it’s “either hang together or hang separately.”
A Changing Petrodollar?
China, for example, can not abide forever by a petrodollar system of oil purchases. As the world’s largest oil importer, it mathematically recognizes that it will eventually run out of dollars to buy that oil.
In short, China needs to come up with a better plan—outside the Greenback.
And they will.
By the way, have you noticed the next BRIC in the wall? It’s Saudi Arabia.
See a trend? See a looming change in oil currencies?
Just saying…
As I warned months ago, this Saudi trend away from DC and closer to Shanghai could eventually be a key driver in slowly unwinding the current petrodollar system between a once “friendly” US-Saudi relationship toward a now weakening relationship which hitherto ensured the global demand (and hence the survival) of an otherwise debased paper Dollar.
If the petrodollar system radically or even slowly unwinds, this will do far more to destroy demand and the inherent purchasing power of the USD (and send gold skyrocketing) than any gold-backed BRICS trade currency.
And yet with all the recent sensationalism preceding the BRICS summit in South Africa, almost no one saw this—at least not in the legacy media.
Imagine that…
Other Tricks Up the BRICS Sleeve: More USD Assets than Liabilities
Aside from knee-capping the USD via a shift (gradual or sudden) in the petrodollar trade, it’s worth noting that but for South Africa, the remaining BRICS nations have more USD assets than liabilities, which means they can start dumping USTs to the detriment of Uncle Sam in order to raise USDs.
Many idealogues and US-thinktankers still think the US has all the power over these silly little BRICS nations who allegedly suffer from a dollar shortage.
The chest-puffers still see the USD as all-powerful and all-controlling, after all, just ask Iraq or Libya…
But the dollar-forever crowd is missing the forest for the trees or the basic math of fantasy debt.
If you haven’t noticed, the US just added an extra $1.9 trillion of insane borrowing to the back end of 2023.
And they did this as rates are rising and with the Fed still in full QT/suicide mode.
This mathematically places downward price pressure on bonds and hence upward cost pressure on yields, a scenario America simply can’t play out for much longer at $95T+ in combined public, household and corporate debt.
If the BRICS nations chose to add a layer of US asset dumping to this toxic mix, the ramifications for Uncle Sam would be even more staggering/painful for a debt-based system already on the cliff’s edge.
This is Bad, Really Bad
To repeat: The macros, no matter how I turn them, have never been this bad, this vulnerable and this foreseeable.
The US is now trapped in a vicious circle of debt for which there is no way out other than a currency-destroying return to more artificial, QE “stimulus” and the mother of all inflationary waves.
The horizon is now clear: Yields are up, twin deficits are up, inflation, even the mis-reported kind, is up, and yes, GDP is up too, but as I recently wrote, debt-driven GDP growth is not growth, but just debt.
Unless DC cuts spending at record levels (which kills election results for political opportunists and thus won’t happen), the only tool Washington DC has is more fake money and more real inflation, which means the Dollar in your wallet, checking account or portfolio is about to insult you.
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Chris Powell…
Another admission from the BIS that central banks rig the gold market
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2023-09-16 11:02Section: Daily Dispatches
11:08a Saturday, September 16, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
While central bank trading is a primary determinant of the price of gold and other currencies, gold market analysis seldom makes any reference to the broker that provides much camouflage for central bank gold trading: the Bank for International Settlements.
Of course over many years GATA has amassed much documentation of BIS interventions in the gold market. Among our favorites are a BIS PowerPoint presentation, made at a BIS conference for prospective BIS members, actually advertising that the bank’s services to members include gold market interventions —
— and a speech by a leading BIS official declaring that to “influence” the price of certain assets, “especially gold and foreign exchange,” is a big objective of central bank cooperation through the BIS:
This week GATA’s consultant about the BIS, Robert Lambourne, who — apparently alone among financial analysts outside central banking — calculates and reports the monthly changes in the bank’s gold swap positions, called attention to another confirmation of the bank’s major but largely surreptitious role in rigging the gold and currency markets. It is a pamphlet in which the bank profiles itself. The pamphlet is posted at the BIS’ internet site here —
On Page 3, under the heading “Banking Services,” the BIS says:
“We offer financial services exclusively to central banks, monetary authorities, and international organisations, mainly to assist them in the management of their foreign exchange assets. As an institution owned and governed by central banks, we are well placed to understand the needs of reserve managers — their primary focus on safety and liquidity, as well as the evolving need to diversify their exposures and obtain a competitive return.
“To meet those needs, we provide credit, gold and foreign exchange intermediation, and asset management services, while administering our own capital. An integrated risk management function ensures that financial and operational risks are properly measured and controlled.”
But this measuring and controlling are done in secret, the better to deceive and cheat the markets that are being measured and controlled. This measuring and controlling, the BIS suggests, are actually for the benefit of those who are deceived and cheated, particularly those using gold to try to protect themselves against rampant inflation, which has become the main product of modern central banking.
How good central banks are, determining the value of all capital, labor, goods, and services in the world so that mere free markets needn’t bother!
Gold market analysis that doesn’t incorporate the work of the BIS is largely a waste of time — that is, nearly all gold market analysis.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
Swiss propose a referendum partially nationalizing UBS
(Bloomberg)
Swiss propose referendum on nationalizing UBS
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2023-09-17 11:01Section: Daily Dispatches
By Bastian Benrath Bloomberg News Sunday, September 17, 2023
A popular initiative in Switzerland wants to hold a vote on partially nationalizing UBS Group, the initiators wrote on their website.
The so-called banks initiative proposes to amend the Swiss constitution to say that “large banks of systemic importance are to be managed as joint stock companies with the confederation as majority shareholder in terms of share capital,” according to the website.
The text is currently under review by federal authorities. If they greenlight it, the initiators have 18 months to collect 100,000 signatures for their cause.
Parliament and cabinet ministers would then need to weigh in before the issue could be put to a national vote, a process that would likely take several years. …
In dollars: 1923.85. There is 3.75 riyals to the dollar.
Gold prices soar to record highs in Saudi market
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2023-09-17 18:09Section: Daily Dispatches
From Sammaa TV, Karachi, Pakistan Sunday, September 17, 2023
In a remarkable turn of events, the Saudi Arabian gold market witnessed a substantial surge in gold prices, with the price of 24-karat gold per gram reaching an unprecedented high of 231.98 riyals.
This astonishing increase has left both experts and investors astounded, as the global economic landscape continues to evolve.
According to reports from the Saudi Press Agency, the surge in gold prices took place yesterday, setting a new benchmark for precious metal enthusiasts.
The substantial increase in gold prices also extended to bulk purchases, with one kilogram of gold commanding a staggering 233,604.13 riyals.
The factors contributing to this remarkable surge in gold prices are multifaceted and remain a topic of discussion among market analysts. …
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: DIAMONDS
G7 Prepares Russian Diamond Ban, Potentially Reshaping Global Rough Stone Supply Chain
FRIDAY, SEP 15, 2023 – 08:40 PM
While Western sanctions haven’t led to the collapse of Russia’s economy, the Group of Seven (G7) nations remain determined to roll out the next round of sanctions in a matter of weeks. According to Reuters, this round aims to reshape the global diamond supply chain, shifting it away from Moscow’s influence.
Reuters said, “The plan could transform the global diamond supply chain, but implementation will depend heavily on India, whose diamond industry employs millions of people who cut and polish 90% of the world’s diamonds.”
A Belgian official told reporters the new trade restriction will go into effect on Jan. 1. They said the ban was proposed by Belgium, where Antwerp, home to all major diamond mining companies, is located.
Reuters noted the restriction would fracture the global consumer diamond market in half as G7 countries would no longer be able to accept diamonds from Russia, the world’s largest producer of rough diamonds.
“We’re talking about restructuring a global market,” the official said, admitting trade restrictions won’t perfectly work right away.
The official continued, “Russia is the biggest supplier globally. With this system, we are cutting them out, leaving them in an inferior market with lower prices. We are slashing the financial flows from this sector.”
We pointed out last year that Russian mining giant Alrosa PJSC’s diamonds were still flowing onto global markets despite the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control hitting the company with sanctions.
Anglo American Plc’s De Beers said the diamond industry supports G7 efforts:
“The question is how we can do this collectively and effectively so that all parts of the industry – large and small – are represented.”
Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, De Beers and Alrosa were responsible for nearly 60% of all rough diamond sales worldwide, with De Beers accounting for 33% and Alrosa for 24%.
The challenging part will be getting India, the mecca of diamond cutting and polishing, on board with trade restrictions.
Another Belgian official said:
“The Indian polishers can polish whatever they want but (Russian gems) need to be segregated … At the point when the polished diamond is offered for export, the reference will be made to the original rough, again using a combination of physical inspection and traceability data.”
Despite all the sanctions that Western officials, US and European corporate media outlets, and neoconservative think tanks said would implode the Russian economy, the International Monetary Fund expects the Russian economy to grow by 1.5% this year. Remember, President Biden once vowed to “turn the ruble into rubble.”
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2958
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2975
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.19 PTS OR 0.26%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 252.34PTS OR 1.39%
2. Nikkei closed
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 104.95 EURO RISES TO 1.0665 UP 18 BASIS PT
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.701 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.61/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ON SHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFF- SHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN’S worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.6900***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 4.475*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.751…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.113
3j Gold at $1926.85 silver at: 23.12 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 25 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 96.56//
3m oil into the 91 dollar handle for WTI and 94 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.61// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.701% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8961 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9557well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.343 UP 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.419 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.058 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.02…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 7 BASIS PTS AT 4.4315
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
USA EARLY MORNING REPORT
“This Week Will Be Bumpy”: S&P Futures Slide, Europe & Asia Slump With Brent At $95 Ahead Of Central Bank Barrage
MONDAY, SEP 18, 2023 – 08:12 AM
US equity futures were flat for much of the session before taking leg lower into the red with Treasury yields ticking higher, the USD flat, oil near $95, highlighting inflationary pressures just as policymakers prepare for interest-rate meetings, and bitcoin is surging as traders start pricing in the coming easing tidal wave. As of 7:45am, S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures were down -0.2%. In commodities, WTI and ags are the best performers with base metals and natgas the biggest laggards. Stocks in Europe and Asia dropped sharply, mirroring the decline that took the S&P 500 down more than 1% last Friday.
This week is a filled with multiple central bank decisions, including the Fed. JPM’s market intel desk writes that with BBG reporting options markets are betting on faster than expected rate cuts in 2024; “let’s see the update from the DOTS” says JPM’s Andrew Tyler. This week, the UAW strike may dominate headlines with about 10% of the 150k person union on strike, and the Biden admin may get involved. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown looms after Sep 30, currently a bi-partisan deal in the House has yet to materialize.
In premarket trading, mega cap Tech names are mostly in the green. Apple shares rise as much as 0.5% with analysts positive on the tech company’s pre-orders for the latest iPhone 15, saying data so far is surpassing expectations and could bode well for the shares if momentum is sustained. Societe Generale plunged as much as 11% after cutting profitability targets. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Alteryx shares jump 5.3% after the computer-software company was upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley, which said the current valuation undervalues its growth and profit potential.
Micron shares gained 2.5% after the chipmaker was raised to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank, with the broker noting that prices for DRAM chips have started to improve faster than expected.
Disney and Warner Bros Discovery (WBD US) rise after the two media and entertainment companies were initiated with outperform recommendations at Raymond James, which noted compelling cash-flow growth expectations. Paramount Global was rated new market perform.
L3Harris Technologies shares rose 1.8% after the defense company was upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Wells Fargo, which said the risk-reward has become more balanced.
A three-week rally in oil prices has pushed benchmark Brent higher by 11%, and back to the average price at which Joe Biden drained almost 200 million barrels from the SPR, complicating the task of central bankers around the world in their fight against inflation. The Federal Reserve’s policy announcement on Wednesday will be followed by those from the Bank of England on Thursday and the Bank of Japan a day later.
“This week will be bumpy,” said Francois Rimeu, a fund manager at La Francaise Asset Management in Paris. “Pretty tough messages are expected from central bankers.”
Monday’s subdued mood in stock markets matched the relentless bearish tone of a note from Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, who said investors have turned more cautious (which is amusing since he has been talling them to short the S&P since 3900 last December). “The majority of investors we’ve spoken with are in the ‘pushed out’ camp and are of the view that 2024 is now looking like a more challenging year for risk assets relative to 2023,” Wilson wrote in a note.
Other disagree: according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, a resilient US economy will prompt the Fed to pencil in one more interest-rate hike this year and stay at the peak level next year for longer than previously expected,
“A number of Fed speakers have taken a slightly more cautious tone recently, mentioning that risks have become more two-sided and talking of the ability to ‘proceed carefully,’” said Credit Agricole strategists led by Jean-François Paren. “That said, it is far too early to declare victory, and the Fed will want to keep the possibility of further tightening on the table.”
European stocks slumped; the Stoxx 600 is down 0.6%, led by declines in the construction and consumer product sectors. Major European markets are all lower with France the biggest laggard. UK rents increases 12% YoY in Aug, the largest increase on record. In EMEA, 3M Momentum is leading, Cyclicals are lagging; Value over Growth. UKX -0.2%, SX5E -0.7%, SXXP -0.5%, DAX -0.5%. Here are the most notable movers:
Pendragon shares rise as much as 32% after the new and used car seller agreed to sell its UK motor and leasing business to Lithia Motors Inc. and form a strategic partnership with the US company in a deal that promises a cash dividend of about £240 million to its shareholders.
PGS shares rise as much as 16% after the Norwegian geophysical data company’s sector peer TGS agreed to an all-share merger. TGS shares slide as much as 7%, with DNB analysts seeing the deal as less favorable to its shareholders.
Cofina shares gain as much as 13% after the Portuguese company said on Friday night that it’s analyzing the two offers it received for its Cofina Media unit; no decision has been taken about whether it will sell Cofina Media or not.
Drax shares rise as much as 5.3%, rebounding from a 10% drop on Friday that came after the UK’s National Audit Office said it will produce a report about the nation’s current biomass strategy and the fuel’s contribution to the UK’s net zero target.
International Distributions Services shares gain as much as 5.2% after JPMorgan upgraded its recommendation on the the Royal Mail owner to overweight from neutral, citing an attractive entry point.
Societe Generale shares drop as much as 7.9% after the lender announced a new strategic plan. KBW called the strategy “disappointing,” while Bloomberg Intelligence said it lacked major proposals to restructure its struggling investment banking division.
S4 Capital shares tumble as much as 28% to a record low after the digital advertising agency reduced full-year guidance for a second time in two months. The company said its clients are cautious in spending due to fears of a recession, and its current client activity levels are weaker than expected. Jefferies and Peel Hunt cut price targets.
Nordic Semiconductor shares slide as much as 16% after the chipmaker reduced quarterly revenue and margin forecasts, citing weak demand across its core markets and no signs of improvement amid an industry downturn.
ALD LeasePlan shares slump as much as 15%, the most since March 2020, after the operational leasing and fleet management company that’s majority owned by Societe Generale announced a new strategic plan for 2023-2026.
Lonza shares fall as much as 10.5%, the most since July, after the Swiss bioprocessing company announced the departure of CEO Pierre-Alain Ruffieux. The uncertainty will lead shares to underperform ahead of capital markets day next month, according to Morgan Stanley.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, with the tech sector leading the declines in a busy week for central bank decisions. A lack of positive developments from China also kept sentiment in check. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index dropped as much as 0.9%, dragged lower by information tech and financials. Among individual stocks, TSMC and Samsung Electronics contributed the most to the benchmark’s loss. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday, while the central bank there is due to meet later this week. Optimism spurred by nascent signs of stabilization in China’s economy has been offset by lingering concerns over the property crisis, with some distressed developers facing more debt payment deadlines.
A gauge of Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong fell about 1%, while the onshore CSI 300 Index touched its lowest level this year before trading higher. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retreated at the open with the declines in Hong Kong led by tech and property stocks including Evergrande shares which slumped by more than 20% in early trade after some of its wealth management employees were detained by Chinese authorities. Conversely, the losses in the mainland were later reversed in the aftermath of the PBoC’s firm liquidity efforts and the previously unannounced meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US National Security Adviser Sullivan.
Australia’s ASX 200 was pressured with underperformance in tech and telecoms and with the handover of leadership at the RBA met with little fanfare.
The Nikkei 225 remained closed as Japanese participants observed the Respect for the Aged Day holiday.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot was is down 0.1%. The Norwegian krone is the worst performer among the G-10’s, falling 0.6% versus the greenback. Spot gold rises 0.1%.
In rates, treasuries drop, with US 10-year yields rising 1bps to 4.34%. Bunds and gilts are also lower; regional yields are higher in this heavy central bank week, which sees decisions from the Fed (pause), BOJ (no change but may hint at tightening) and BoE, which is expected to hike 25bps to 5.5%, ending the hiking cycle; The ECB warns on additional hikes, but market expects the CB to have already completed.
In commodities, oil prices gained with US crude futures rising 0.6% to trade near $91.30. On the outlook for oil, traders will be monitoring clues on prospects for global supply when Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman addresses an industry conference later Monday. Hedge funds last week boosted their bullish wagers on Brent and US crude to a 15-month high. Brent has gained 11% in three weeks.
Looking at today’s calendar, it’s a slow start to the week, with the New York Fed Services Business index due, followed by the NAHB Housing Market Index, and the latest TIC data after the close.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,504.00
MXAP down 0.6% to 162.97
MXAPJ down 0.9% to 504.11
Nikkei up 1.1% to 33,533.09
Topix up 0.9% to 2,428.38
Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 17,930.55
Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,125.93
Sensex down 0.2% to 67,671.61
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 7,230.37
Kospi down 1.0% to 2,574.72
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 459.72
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.68%
Euro little changed at $1.0658
Brent Futures up 0.3% to $94.17/bbl
Brent Futures up 0.2% to $94.16/bbl
Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,926.10
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 105.34
Top Overnight News
Biden’s national security advisor secretly met with China’s foreign minister in Europe over the weekend, a “significant step” toward stabilizing relations between the two countries (the weekend discussion could pave the way for Biden and Xi to meet later this year on the sidelines of the APEC summit in November). NBC News
China’s economy is showing some green shoots (the latest evidence being Aug retail sales and industrial production Thurs night), but FDI (foreign direct investment) remains a big problem (FDI slumped 5.1% YTD through Aug, a larger drop than the -4% YTD as of Jul). SCMP
SoftBank is on the hunt for deals in artificial intelligence, including a potential investment in OpenAI, after the blockbuster listing of UK chip designer Arm bolstered Masayoshi Son’s multibillion-dollar war chest. FT
Brent edged closer to $95 for the first time since November after a three-week run of gains. Growing supply tightness and eroding inventories suggest the rally may have further to run after hedge funds boosted bullish bets to a 15-month high last week. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman speaks at the World Petroleum Congress in Calgary later. BBG
The US and Iran are set to complete an exchange of prisoners after months of negotiations, a breakthrough that Washington hopes will open the door to a de-escalation of tensions between the arch-foes. In a carefully sequenced process, five American-Iranian dual nationals will be released on Monday by the Islamic republic and flown to Qatar, while the US will also free five Iranians from American prisons. FT
U.S. COVID infections are hovering near levels of the pandemic’s first peak in 2020, and approaching the Delta peak of late 2021, according to wastewater surveillance and modeling by forecasters. It’s yet another sign that while the official pandemic state may be over, the days of COVID are far from it. Fortune
The restart of student-loan payments could divert up to $100 billion from Americans’ pockets over the coming year, leaving consumers squeezed and some of the nation’s largest retailers fearing a spending slowdown. WSJ
Auto strike latest: The UAW’s Shawn Fain rejected an offer of a 21% raise from Stellantis. “It’s definitely a no-go,” Fain told CBS. His comments signal the union and Detroit execs are still far apart. The union also rejected what Stellantis called a “compelling offer” that would protect jobs at an idled Jeep plant in Illinois. BBG
TSLA has already won, regardless of how the UAW talks turn out – the company’s manufacturing lead is only widening vs. the legacy OEMs as the firm drives down the cost of building an EV. WSJ
Utilities was among the most net sold sectors on the Goldman Prime Book last week, driven by long sales and to a much lesser extent short sales (~8 to 1). Last week’s net selling in US Utilities was the largest in 11 weeks and ranks in the 92nd percentile vs. the past five years. The US Utilities long/short ratio fell -4.9% on the week and now stands at 1.44, in the 12th percentile vs. the past year and in the 9th percentile vs. the past five years. GSPB
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly lower following last Friday’s declines on Wall St and with the region cautious in a holiday-thinned start to a busy week of central bank policy announcements. ASX 200 was pressured with underperformance in tech and telecoms and with the handover of leadership at the RBA met with little fanfare. Nikkei 225 remained closed as Japanese participants observed the Respect for the Aged Day holiday. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retreated at the open with the declines in Hong Kong led by tech and property stocks including Evergrande shares which slumped by more than 20% in early trade after some of its wealth management employees were detained by Chinese authorities. Conversely, the losses in the mainland were later reversed in the aftermath of the PBoC’s firm liquidity efforts and the previously unannounced meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US National Security Adviser Sullivan.
Top Asian News
US National Security Adviser Sullivan and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met in Malta over the weekend in an unannounced meeting to maintain open lines of communication with the discussions said to be candid, substantive and constructive, while they discussed security issues, Russia’s war in Ukraine and cross-Taiwan-Strait issues, according to the White House. Furthermore, a US official said the US sees some limited signs China may re-establish military communications with the US and the US raised concerns about Chinese assistance to Russia, as well as expressed concerns about China crossing the median line in the Taiwan Strait, according to Reuters.
China’s Foreign Ministry said following the meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang and White House’s Sullivan that both sides agreed to continue to maintain high-level exchanges and hold consultations on Asia-Pacific affairs, maritime affairs and foreign policy, while it added that the Taiwan issue is the first insurmountable line on Sino-US relations, according to Reuters.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a meeting with Malta’s Foreign Minister that the two sides will work together to promote China-EU cooperation and China hopes Malta would continue to play a positive role in the development of China-EU relations. Furthermore, he said China-EU cooperation outweighs differences and China has consistently supported the EU’s strategic independence and European integration, according to Reuters.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Russia from September 18th-21st for the China-Russia strategic security consultations.
IMF’s Georgieva said China’s ageing population and declining productivity are suppressing growth and Beijing should work to boost domestic consumption, while she urged China to address the weakness in the real estate sector and build-up of local government debt. Furthermore, she stated the IMF must carefully monitor the outflow of investments from China and said that some sectors still offer opportunities, according to Reuters.
German Foreign Minister Baerbock said Europe must reduce its dependence on China and the EU should de-risk from China but not decouple, according to Bloomberg.
European bourses are in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%, with participants cautious ahead of a Central Bank frenzy. Sectors have Health Care at the bottom weighed on by Lonza while pressure on LVMH’s Champagne brands has put Consumer Products & Services on the backfoot. Stateside, futures are essentially unchanged on the session after Friday’s pressure, ES +0.1%, with the US docket light until Wednesday’s FOMC. JP Morgan on EZ Equity Strategy: stays cautious on the region and expects defensive sectors to trade better into year-end.
Top European News
UK opposition Labour Party leader Keir Starmer pledged to seek a major rewrite of the Brexit deal in 2025 if the party wins the next general election, according to FT.
ECB’s Holzmann said that they definitely cannot say this was the final hike but the likelihood of another hike is not that big and noted that inflation risks haven’t receded lately. Furthermore, he stated that there is a risk more tightening will be needed and it wasn’t an easy decision at the last meeting where they had to weigh all arguments very carefully in order to come to an agreement.
ECB’s Muller sees a good case that no further rate hikes are needed and noted a strong case to quicken the balance sheet roll-off, while he added that the ECB should discuss an earlier end of PEPP reinvestment.
ECB’s Stournaras said governments must do their part in reining in consumer prices after borrowing costs reached a level that could be their peak, while he stated that monetary policy has done its part to fight inflation and it is up to fiscal policy to take off some of the heat, according to Bloomberg.
ECB’s Kazimir said he wishes the September rate hike was the last but cannot rule out further rate increases; only the March forecast can confirm that ECB is heading towards inflation goal; end of rate hikes to open debate on how to adjust PEPP and APP. Once clear that no more rate hikes are needed, debate should start on speeding up QT. Premature to place bets on the first-rate cut.
ECB’s de Guindos says parts of underlying inflation are moderating.
Bundesbank Monthly Report (September): expects the German economy to shrink in Q3 on weak industry and muted private consumption.
Moody’s raised Greece’s sovereign rating by two notches from Ba3; Outlook Stable from BA1; Outlook Positive and S&P affirmed Spain at A; Outlook Stable, while Fitch affirmed Germany at AAA; Outlook Stable and affirmed Malta at A+; Outlook Stable.
FX
DXY sits on a 105.000 handle within tight range ahead of NAHB on a quiet agenda before this week’s Central Bank-fest.
Kiwi and Aussie marginally outperform against Greenback above 0.5900 and 0.6400 respectively in the absence of anything specific.
Other majors relatively contained vs Buck as Franc, Yen, Pound, Loonie and Euro keep afloat of 0.9000, 148.00, 1.2350, 1.3550 and 1.0650.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1736 vs exp. 7.2707 (prev. 7.1786)
Czech Central Bank Governor Michl said let’s forget about near-term rate cuts and that there will be no rate cuts in September and October, while they expect higher rates in the longer term and want to be a hawkish central bank. Furthermore, Michl said core inflation does not allow a rate cut now and they will wait for data in November and January, according to Reuters.
Fixed Income
Debt futures remain depressed and defensive awaiting inflation data, a swathe of September policy meetings and flash PMIs.
Bunds and Gilts teeter mostly above 130.00 and 95.00 between 130.24-129.97 and 95.23-94.96 respective parameters.
T-note hovers within 109-09/16 range pre-NAHB.
Commodities
WTI October and Brent November futures are firmer intraday, although off best levels with support emanating from Central Bank expectation, demand side support via China and ongoing Saudi/Russia curbs.
WTI trades around USD 91.30/bbl and towards the top end of a 90.86-91.70/bbl parameter thus far, while its Brent counterpart oscillates around USD 94.30/bbl in a USD 93.93-94.78/bbl band.
TTF is softer intraday despite Offshore Alliance members starting another 24-hour stoppage while Norway’s Troll field has begun to increase output after its prolonged shutdown.
Spot gold is rangebound between the 50- and 200-DMAs while base metals are more mixed given the cautious tone.
Australia’s Offshore Alliance union said members began another 24-hour stoppage on Sunday at Chevron’s (CVX) Australian LNG facilities.
French PM Borne said the government plans to permit gas stations to sell fuel at a loss for a limited period of a few months to help contain inflation.
Troll field in Norway to start ramping up output on Monday following the prolonged shutdown, according to Bloomberg’s Stapczynski.
Kuwait KNPC says power was cut at the Al Ahmadi (25k BPD) and Abdallah (270k BPD) refineries last night but work continues; working towards full production capacity, exports remain unaffected, according to a KNPC statement.
Kazakhstan raised its daily oil and gas condensate production by 10% on Sunday from Saturday to 250.4k tons following the completion of maintenance at the Karachagnak and Tengiz fields.
China August refined copper output +16.4% Y/Y to 1.12mln metric tons; Lead output +5.5% Y/Y to 619k tons, according to the stats bureau.
Ukraine intends to sue Hungary, Poland and Slovakia due to their refusal to drop a ban on Ukrainian agricultural products, via Politico.
Geopolitics
Ukraine’s general in command of ground forces announced that Ukrainian forces recaptured the eastern village of Klishchiivka on the southern flank of Bakhmut, according to a Telegram post cited by Reuters.
North Korean leader Kim met with Russian Defence Minister Shoigu in Vladivostok who showed Kim Russia’s hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and three nuclear-capable strategic aircraft, according to Russian media.
IAEA said Tehran took a disproportionate and unprecedented measure in barring a third of IAEA’s most experienced inspectors in Iran and noted that these inspectors are among the most experienced energy experts with unique knowledge of enrichment technology, according to Reuters.
Israel PM Netanyahu said Iran is violating all its commitments to the international community after Tehran moved to ban multiple inspectors, according to Reuters.
Saudi Arabia reportedly informed the Biden admin of its decision to halt all discussions of normalising ties with Israel on Sunday, citing Israeli PM Netanyahu’s “extremist” government, according to unconfirmed reports cited by The Jerusalem Post.
Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said during the past 24 hours, 40 Chinese air force planes crossed Taiwan’s air defence zone and said China’s continuous military harassment can easily lead to a sharp increase in tensions and worsen regional security, while it urged Beijing authorities to immediately stop destructive actions, according to Reuters. Furthermore, AFP reported that Taiwan said it detected 103 Chinese warplanes around the island.
Turkish President Erdogan said Turkey could part ways with the EU if necessary following a report which criticised Turkey’s democratic shortcomings, according to Bloomberg.
Social media reports, citing Bulgarian radio, state that an unidentified drone with an 82mm mortar mine has crashed on the coast of Bulgaria (NATO member).
US Event Calendar
08:30: Sept. New York Fed Services Business, prior 0.6
10:00: Sept. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 49, prior 50
16:00: July Total Net TIC Flows, prior $147.8b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The FOMC on Wednesday will highlight a busy week for markets with central banks at the fore. Outside of the Fed, the BoE (Thursday), and the BoJ (Friday) are the other main events on this front. Central banks in Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Turkiye (all Thursday) all have policy meetings too.
The CPI inflation data for both the UK (Wednesday) and Japan (Friday) will also be out this week. The global flash PMIs due Friday will be another big focus. The latest manufacturing PMI for Germany printed at 39.1 (43.5 in the Eurozone), much lower than the still soft 47.9 in the US and 49.6 in Japan. Momentum in the services gauge, especially in the US (50.5) where it’s only just above 50, will also be in focus after stronger comparable prints in other US surveys.
Also in the US we have the monthly housing week data dump even if it will be tough to learn something new. US housing affordability is around the worst on record for buyers, and activity is at around 30 year low, but for the vast majority of existing homeowners there is no stress. We have today’s NAHB homebuilder index (DB forecast 50 vs. 50 previously), Tuesday’s housing starts (1.478mn vs 1.452mn) and building permits (1.460mn vs. 1.443mn) and Thursday’s existing home sales (4.25mn vs. 4.07mn). Elsewhere in the US, Thursday’s Philadelphia Fed survey (-5.0 vs. +12.0) will be of some interest. Elsewhere the UAW autoworkers strike that started on Friday will gain more macro attention the longer it lasts. Some may say this is an idiosyncratic risk to the economy but with inflation having been high and corporate profits coming back, this sort of thing is a genuine consequence of the macro environment.
Anyway, let’s dive into a brief FOMC preview. A fuller one from our economists can be found here. You’d be hard pressed to find someone who thinks they’ll hike this week but our expectation is that they keep the door open for another hike later this year which the dot plot will continue to reflect. Our economists believe other parts of the SEP are likely to undergo meaningful revisions, particularly for 2023. Stronger growth (2023 could double to 2%, 2024 could increase around 25bps to 1.3%) and lower unemployment should counterbalance softer inflation (2023 revised down but core forecasts for 2024 likely to be unchanged). So the meeting is likely to see a confident pause but one where further tightening is seen as the risk.
After the Fed, the focus will shift to the BoE on Thursday. Our UK economist previews the meeting here and expects another +25bps hike that would take the Bank Rate to 5.5% and sees another, potentially final, hike in November. The market were pricing in around a 70% chance of a hike at the close on Friday. Perhaps a swing factor on the outlook could be the UK CPI the day before where headline is expected to rise from 6.8% to 7.2% due to energy costs but core is expected to dip 0.1pp to 6.8%. A big fall in October’s headline release should occur alongside a big fall in energy bills as bad YoY comps drop out. Retail sales on Friday completes a busy week for the UK. Retail sales will also be due on Thursday in France. Highlights in Germany include the PPI out on Wednesday.
The BoJ will wrap up the busy week on Friday and a preview from our Chief Japan economist is available here. He expects the central bank to stick to its current policy stance but revise the MPM statement to point to policy normalisation. Further out, our economist sees the YCC and negative interest rate policy ending at the October and January meetings, respectively. Japan’s latest nationwide CPI will also be out that day. Our Chief Japan economist sees the headline gauge at 2.9% YoY (+3.3% in July), core inflation excluding fresh food at 2.9% (+3.1%), and core-core inflation excluding fresh food and energy (+4.3%).
Asian equity markets are generally tracking down to Friday’s DM losses, especially in the tech sector but S&P 500 (+0.18%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.12%) futures have rebounded a little. The Hang Seng (-1.03%) is the biggest underperformer followed by the KOSPI (-0.87%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.60%). Elsewhere, mainland Chinese stocks are trading up with the CSI (+0.39%) slightly higher while the Shanghai Composite (+0.03%) is just above the flatline. Meanwhile, markets in Japan are closed for a holiday with cash treasuries closed.
In energy markets, oil prices are extending gains with Brent crude (+0.42%) inching towards $95/bbl amid Russian and Saudi Arabian production cuts.
Now, looking back on last week. On Friday, we had the preliminary results of the University of Michigan’s September survey of consumer sentiment. The headline missed expectations, falling to 67.7 (vs 69.0 expected). On the other hand, the inflation expectations section of the survey saw one-year inflation expectations hit their lowest level since 2021 after falling from 3.5% to 3.1% (vs 3.5% expected). Inflation expectations at the long-run horizon, 5 to 10 years, also surprised to the downside, falling from 3.0% to 2.7% (vs 3.0% expected). So more encouragement that disinflation is being felt by US consumers which is surprising for the last month given the notably higher gas prices of late. The first release is often revised so we will see. At face value though this will be very good news for the Fed.
With a week of former US data though, markets moved to price in a higher for longer Fed funds rate. The rate priced for December 2024 rose +10.8bps last week, and +4.2bps on Friday. Off the back of this, US 10yr Treasury yields gained +4.5bps on Friday, and +6.7bps in weekly terms. Similarly, 2yr yields rose +4.2bps week-on-week (and +2.1bps on Friday).
In Europe, on Friday, the day after the ECB’s 25bps hike to 4.00%, comments by the ECB’s Muller that higher inflation in the Eurozone could “yet warrant another hike” saw 10yr bund yields rise +8.2bps to 2.67%. So the hawks leaving the door open to another hike. This was followed by comments from President Lagarde that interest rate cuts were not yet on the table for policymakers. The move on Friday erased the fall in 10yr yields that had occurred earlier in the week, as yields rose +6.5bps to 2.67%, their highest weekly close since the first week of March. Of note, German 30yr yields gained +9.0bps on Friday (and +8.2bps week-on-week) to 2.81%, their highest level since 2011.
Turning back to the US, equities pared back their weekly advance as tech giants like Amazon and Nvidia fell on Friday. The S&P 500 slipped -1.22%, erasing its earlier weekly gains (-0.16%). The decline was led by technology stocks, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ falling -1.56% on Friday (-0.39% on the week). Within the technology sector, semiconductors had a more than lacklustre day, down -3.01% after a report that the largest chip manufacturer, TSMC, had requested its major supplier to delay shipments of high-end equipment. Nvidia fell -3.69% on Friday (-3.67% week-on-week), while Amazon declined -2.99% on Friday (though still up +1.56% in weekly terms). Things were sunnier in European equities. The STOXX 600 gained +0.23% on Friday, wrapping the week up with gains of +1.60%, its best weekly performance since mid-July. The FTSE 100 also outperformed, up +3.12% over the week (and +0.50% on Friday) in its strongest weekly run since January.
Finally, in commodities, oil had a formidable run last week, hitting a new 10-month high. This came as supply continues to tighten following production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia alongside OPEC’s warning last week that the oil market would likely be in large deficit by the end of 2023. WTI crude futures were up +3.73% week-on-week (and +0.68% on Friday), breaking through the $90/bbl to level to finish at $90.77/bbl, ticking off a third consecutive week of gains. Brent similarly gained on the week, up +3.62% (and +0.25% on Friday) to $93.93/bbl.
END
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)/
European bourses weaker, US futures contained; DXY lower & Fixed firmer; US NAHB due – Newsquawk US Market Open
MONDAY, SEP 18, 2023 – 06:06 AM
European bourses are in the red with US futures contained in light newsflow ahead of a key Central Bank week
DXY above 105.00, but in the red, Antipodeans outperform with other G10s relatively contained vs USD
Debt futures depressed heading into a packed week, yields bid across the curve with the belly leading
Crude benchmarks remain firmer as known demand- & supply-side factors continue to assist
US’ Sullivan and China’s Wang Yi met with talks described as candid, substantive and constructive
Looking ahead, highlights include US NAHB Housing Market Index. Remarks from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, ECB’s Panetta
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%, with participants cautious ahead of a Central Bank frenzy.
Sectors have Health Care at the bottom weighed on by Lonza while pressure on LVMH’s Champagne brands has put Consumer Products & Services on the backfoot.
Stateside, futures are essentially unchanged on the session after Friday’s pressure, ES +0.1%, with the US docket light until Wednesday’s FOMC.
JP Morgan on EZ Equity Strategy: stays cautious on the region and expects defensive sectors to trade better into year-end. Click here for more detail.
DXY sits on a 105.000 handle within tight range ahead of NAHB on a quiet agenda before this week’s Central Bank-fest.
Kiwi and Aussie marginally outperform against Greenback above 0.5900 and 0.6400 respectively in the absence of anything specific.
Other majors relatively contained vs Buck as Franc, Yen, Pound, Loonie and Euro keep afloat of 0.9000, 148.00, 1.2350, 1.3550 and 1.0650.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1736 vs exp. 7.2707 (prev. 7.1786)
Czech Central Bank Governor Michl said let’s forget about near-term rate cuts and that there will be no rate cuts in September and October, while they expect higher rates in the longer term and want to be a hawkish central bank. Furthermore, Michl said core inflation does not allow a rate cut now and they will wait for data in November and January, according to Reuters.
WTI October and Brent November futures are firmer intraday, although off best levels with support emanating from Central Bank expectation, demand side support via China and ongoing Saudi/Russia curbs.
WTI trades around USD 91.30/bbl and towards the top end of a 90.86-91.70/bbl parameter thus far, while its Brent counterpart oscillates around USD 94.30/bbl in a USD 93.93-94.78/bbl band.
TTF is softer intraday despite Offshore Alliance members starting another 24-hour stoppage while Norway’s Troll field has begun to increase output after its prolonged shutdown.
Spot gold is rangebound between the 50- and 200-DMAs while base metals are more mixed given the cautious tone.
Australia’s Offshore Alliance union said members began another 24-hour stoppage on Sunday at Chevron’s (CVX) Australian LNG facilities.
French PM Borne said the government plans to permit gas stations to sell fuel at a loss for a limited period of a few months to help contain inflation.
Troll field in Norway to start ramping up output on Monday following the prolonged shutdown, according to Bloomberg’s Stapczynski.
Kuwait KNPC says power was cut at the Al Ahmadi (25k BPD) and Abdallah (270k BPD) refineries last night but work continues; working towards full production capacity, exports remain unaffected, according to a KNPC statement.
Kazakhstan raised its daily oil and gas condensate production by 10% on Sunday from Saturday to 250.4k tons following the completion of maintenance at the Karachagnak and Tengiz fields.
China August refined copper output +16.4% Y/Y to 1.12mln metric tons; Lead output +5.5% Y/Y to 619k tons, according to the stats bureau.
Ukraine intends to sue Hungary, Poland and Slovakia due to their refusal to drop a ban on Ukrainian agricultural products, via Politico.
Two key House Republican factions, the House Freedom Caucus and Main Street Caucus, reached a deal to temporarily fund the government for an extra month and avert a shutdown, according to Semafor.
UAW and automakers resumed talks on reaching a new contract and Ford (F) said it is committed to reaching an agreement with UAW that rewards workers and allows Ford to invest in the future, while Stellantis (STLA) offered union employees cumulative raises of nearly 21% over the life of the contract and proposed a plan to keep the Illinois assembly plant open. However, UAW stated that Stellantis is playing games with the future of the assembly plant and UAW’s President Fain said in an interview with CBS that they are prepared to do whatever they have to do when asked whether they are ready to order strikes at additional plants.
WSJ’s Timiraos’ FOMC preview: “Why a Soft Landing Could Prove Elusive”
UK opposition Labour Party leader Keir Starmer pledged to seek a major rewrite of the Brexit deal in 2025 if the party wins the next general election, according to FT.
ECB’s Holzmann said that they definitely cannot say this was the final hike but the likelihood of another hike is not that big and noted that inflation risks haven’t receded lately. Furthermore, he stated that there is a risk more tightening will be needed and it wasn’t an easy decision at the last meeting where they had to weigh all arguments very carefully in order to come to an agreement.
ECB’s Muller sees a good case that no further rate hikes are needed and noted a strong case to quicken the balance sheet roll-off, while he added that the ECB should discuss an earlier end of PEPP reinvestment.
ECB’s Stournaras said governments must do their part in reining in consumer prices after borrowing costs reached a level that could be their peak, while he stated that monetary policy has done its part to fight inflation and it is up to fiscal policy to take off some of the heat, according to Bloomberg.
ECB’s Kazimir said he wishes the September rate hike was the last but cannot rule out further rate increases; only the March forecast can confirm that ECB is heading towards inflation goal; end of rate hikes to open debate on how to adjust PEPP and APP. Once clear that no more rate hikes are needed, debate should start on speeding up QT. Premature to place bets on the first-rate cut.
ECB’s de Guindos says parts of underlying inflation are moderating.
Bundesbank Monthly Report (September): expects the German economy to shrink in Q3 on weak industry and muted private consumption.
Moody’s raised Greece’s sovereign rating by two notches from Ba3; Outlook Stable from BA1; Outlook Positive and S&P affirmed Spain at A; Outlook Stable, while Fitch affirmed Germany at AAA; Outlook Stable and affirmed Malta at A+; Outlook Stable.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA
UK Rightmove House Price Index MM (Sep) 0.4% (Prev. -1.9%); YY (Sep) -0.4% (Prev. -0.1%)
GEOPOLITICS
Ukraine’s general in command of ground forces announced that Ukrainian forces recaptured the eastern village of Klishchiivka on the southern flank of Bakhmut, according to a Telegram post cited by Reuters.
North Korean leader Kim met with Russian Defence Minister Shoigu in Vladivostok who showed Kim Russia’s hypersonic Kinzhal missiles and three nuclear-capable strategic aircraft, according to Russian media.
IAEA said Tehran took a disproportionate and unprecedented measure in barring a third of IAEA’s most experienced inspectors in Iran and noted that these inspectors are among the most experienced energy experts with unique knowledge of enrichment technology, according to Reuters.
Israel PM Netanyahu said Iran is violating all its commitments to the international community after Tehran moved to ban multiple inspectors, according to Reuters.
Saudi Arabia reportedly informed the Biden admin of its decision to halt all discussions of normalising ties with Israel on Sunday, citing Israeli PM Netanyahu’s “extremist” government, according to unconfirmed reports cited by The Jerusalem Post.
Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said during the past 24 hours, 40 Chinese air force planes crossed Taiwan’s air defence zone and said China’s continuous military harassment can easily lead to a sharp increase in tensions and worsen regional security, while it urged Beijing authorities to immediately stop destructive actions, according to Reuters. Furthermore, AFP reported that Taiwan said it detected 103 Chinese warplanes around the island.
Turkish President Erdogan said Turkey could part ways with the EU if necessary following a report which criticised Turkey’s democratic shortcomings, according to Bloomberg.
Social media reports, citing Bulgarian radio, state that an unidentified drone with an 82mm mortar mine has crashed on the coast of Bulgaria (NATO member).
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is firmer on the session but remains shy of the USD 27k mark and last week’s USD 26.85k best. However, BTC is at the top-end of USD 26.38-26.80k parameters with specific newsflow light as markets generally prepare for blockbuster Wednesday and Thursday sessions.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly lower following last Friday’s declines on Wall St and with the region cautious in a holiday-thinned start to a busy week of central bank policy announcements
ASX 200 was pressured with underperformance in tech and telecoms and with the handover of leadership at the RBA met with little fanfare.
Nikkei 225 remained closed as Japanese participants observed the Respect for the Aged Day holiday.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp retreated at the open with the declines in Hong Kong led by tech and property stocks including Evergrande shares which slumped by more than 20% in early trade after some of its wealth management employees were detained by Chinese authorities. Conversely, the losses in the mainland were later reversed in the aftermath of the PBoC’s firm liquidity efforts and the previously unannounced meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US National Security Adviser Sullivan.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
US National Security Adviser Sullivan and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met in Malta over the weekend in an unannounced meeting to maintain open lines of communication with the discussions said to be candid, substantive and constructive, while they discussed security issues, Russia’s war in Ukraine and cross-Taiwan-Strait issues, according to the White House. Furthermore, a US official said the US sees some limited signs China may re-establish military communications with the US and the US raised concerns about Chinese assistance to Russia, as well as expressed concerns about China crossing the median line in the Taiwan Strait, according to Reuters.
China’s Foreign Ministry said following the meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang and White House’s Sullivan that both sides agreed to continue to maintain high-level exchanges and hold consultations on Asia-Pacific affairs, maritime affairs and foreign policy, while it added that the Taiwan issue is the first insurmountable line on Sino-US relations, according to Reuters.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a meeting with Malta’s Foreign Minister that the two sides will work together to promote China-EU cooperation and China hopes Malta would continue to play a positive role in the development of China-EU relations. Furthermore, he said China-EU cooperation outweighs differences and China has consistently supported the EU’s strategic independence and European integration, according to Reuters.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Russia from September 18th-21st for the China-Russia strategic security consultations.
IMF’s Georgieva said China’s ageing population and declining productivity are suppressing growth and Beijing should work to boost domestic consumption, while she urged China to address the weakness in the real estate sector and build-up of local government debt. Furthermore, she stated the IMF must carefully monitor the outflow of investments from China and said that some sectors still offer opportunities, according to Reuters.
German Foreign Minister Baerbock said Europe must reduce its dependence on China and the EU should de-risk from China but not decouple, according to Bloomberg.
DATA RECAP
Singapore Non-Oil Exports MM (Aug) -3.8% vs. Exp. 5.5% (Prev. 3.4%); YY (Aug) -20.1% vs. Exp. -15.8% (Prev. -20.2%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8,19 PTS OR 0.26% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 252.34 PTS OR 1.39%/ /The Nikkei CLOSED //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.73 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.2956 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.2975 /Oil UP TO 91.37 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 94.35 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
//NORTH KOREA/CHINA/RUSSIA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
Harvey: next property developer to default , the large home builder Sino Ocean. They are asking bond holders to restructure its debt
ROBERT H TO US:
This is what happens when the lack of velocity in cash flow is met by debts that cannot be retired or paid
China’s Property Troubles Worsen as State-Backed Sino-Ocean Suspends Debt Payments
The Beijing-based property developer said ‘holistic restructuring’ of its offshore debt is the only way forward as it confronts rising liquidity challenges.
A residential and commercial complex under construction is seen in Nanning, in southern China’s Guangxi region, on Nov. 9, 2021. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)
China’s real estate woes deepened on Friday as state-backed developer Sino-Ocean Group Holding suspended debt payments for all offshore debt until a restructuring was finalized. It also said it has halted trading its U.S. dollar securities in Hong Kong.
According to the Beijing-based property developer, “holistic restructuring” of its offshore debt is the only way forward as it confronts rising liquidity challenges due to a sales slowdown throughout the wider sector since 2021.
“Starting from the second half of 2021, the real estate sector in China has experienced significant changes and real estate developers have been confronted with unprecedented challenges with regard to liquidity and funding,” the company said in a Hong Kong stock exchange filing (pdf).
While Sino-Ocean Group continuously adopted measures to repay the debts, “Since 2023, in the circumstances where the industry sales and financing environment have not been notably improved, the Group has experienced a rapid decline in contracted sales and increased uncertainty in asset disposals and has continuously faced limitations in various financing activities,” according to the filing.
“Against the above backdrop, the Group believes the optimal path forward is a holistic restructuring of its offshore debts—one that ensures fair and equitable treatment to its creditors, provides a sustainable capital structure, and establishes a runway for the Group to stabilise its operations,” it said.
In August, Sino-Ocean said that its creditors had rejected the company’s plan to postpone repayment of a 2 billion yuan (about $278 million) onshore bond but agreed to give the company a one-month grace period.
Although Sino-Ocean’s financial issues have been simmering since last month, the revelation on Friday sent China’s already troubled property sector into a deeper debt crisis.
Ensuring Timely Deliveries
The now-troubled developer—which claims to be one of the top house sellers in Beijing and Tianjin with more than 600 property projects across China—does not foresee any delay in deliveries or disruptions in operations.
Sino-Ocean is pursuing significant cost-cutting and efficiency-improvement efforts to improve operating efficiencies.
“At this stage, the Group is working relentlessly to ensure delivery of completed properties pursuant to pre-sale arrangements entered into by the Group and the continuation of its business operations,” the filing said.
“The Group will concentrate all necessary resources to ensure delivery of current projects, to accelerate the sale of properties under development and completed properties and to stabilize its business operations to protect the interests of the home buyers, the Group’s partners and all stakeholders,” it added.
The company also announced the appointment of Houlihan Lokey (China) Ltd. as finance consultant and Sidley Austin as legal counsel.
Property Woes to Continue
Sino-Ocean’s problems add to growing concerns about China’s real estate sector, which faces new challenges almost daily, including a continual loss of homebuyer confidence.
The National Bureau of Statistics’ 70-city house price data released on Friday revealed that the weighted average property price in the primary market fell sequentially in August after seasonal adjustments.
The decline in sequential growth of house prices was most prominent in tier-3 and tier-4 cities, while the proportion of 70 cities that experienced sequentially higher property prices declined in both the primary and secondary markets in August.
On Thursday, Moody’s downgraded its outlook for China’s property sector, given that weaker economic growth prospects and concerns over on-time project completion and delivery will continue to weigh on homebuyers’ confidence and demand for the next 6–12 months, according to its estimates.
“The economic recovery from a prolonged zero-COVID policy remains muted, as the reopening momentum seen in March, April and May appears to be waning. As a result, low consumer confidence has held back household spending, including property purchases,” Moody’s said.
Although regulators could announce more measures to help the property market, the rating agency said that using the property market to boost economic growth goes against Beijing’s goal of reducing debt and rebalancing the economy toward domestic consumption and high-productivity sectors in the medium to long term.
Sino-Ocean is unsure if it will be out of the woods soon.
Many factors outside of the company’s control will need to be in place for a comprehensive solution to the offshore debt issue, the filing said.
Given the lack of certainty, the company advised holders of securities and other investors to consider the relevant risks and exercise caution when dealing with them.
end
Monday morning: Huge outflow of 42$ billion USA
(zerohedge)
The Hits Just Keep On Coming: China Suffers Biggest FX Outflow Since 2016 Amid Sudden Surge In Capital Flight
SUNDAY, SEP 17, 2023 – 10:45 PM
And the hits just keep on coming for China.
With its economy on the verge of a Japanification vicious loop, where record debts, lead to distressed selling, repayment of debt, contraction in the money supply, falling asset prices, a wave of bankruptcies, surging unemployment, a slowing economy and a crisis of confidence, which then leads to money hoarding and deflation…
… China is now also facing a sudden surge in FX outflows: according to Goldman’s preferred gauge of FX flows, China’s net outflows were $42bn in August, the fastest pace of outflows since December 2016 when China was reeling from the 2015 shock yuan devaluation, vs the already concerning $26bn outflows in July (which we discussed last month). Foreign investors’ net selling of equities through the stock connect channel rose materially in August, contributing to the acceleration of outflows. Goods trade related inflows remained robust on the other hand.
Here are the key points from the latest data:
1. In August, China experienced $24bn in net outflows via onshore outright spot transactions, and $12bn inflows via freshly entered and canceled forward transactions. Another SAFE dataset on “cross-border RMB flows” showed outflows of $31bn in the month, suggesting net payment of RMB from onshore to offshore. Goldman’s preferred FX flow measure therefore suggests a total US$42bn outflows in August, in comparison with US$26bn outflows in July, an outflow which was the highest since July 2022.
2. The current account continued to show inflows. There was a net inflow of $26bn related to goods trade in August, higher than the $18bn in July. Goods trade surplus conversion ratio rose to 38% in August vs 22% in July, in contrast to the continued depreciation of the currency. On the other hand, the services trade deficit was $14bn, more negative than $11bn in July as outbound tourism continued to recover. The income and transfers account showed outflows of $5bn in August, smaller than $6bn in July.
3. Portfolio investment channel saw faster outflows in August. Stock Connect flows showed strong net selling of equities through northbound and net buying through southbound, which implies US$22bn outflows through the Stock Connect channel, vs US$5bn inflows in July. This was the fastest pace of outflows through the Stock Connect channel since January 2021. Foreigners’ holding of RMB bonds data are not released yet.
4. Official FX reserves (released earlier in the month) declined to US$3,160bn in August from US$3,204bn in July. By Goldman’s estimate, FX valuation effects would have cut FX reserves by $19bn in August, so after adjusting for FX valuation effects, FX reserves still decreased by $25bn in July. While the unfavorable asset price effect likely contributed to this decline, the decline might not be fully explained by asset price declines, suggesting potential usage of FX reserves to manage the currency amid outflow pressures.
5. Goldman forecasts continued monetary policy easing in Q4, including a 25bp RRR cut and a 10bp policy interest rate cut. CNY exchange rate will likely continue to face depreciation pressures in the near term while policymakers maintain tight capital controls and guide market expectations to slow the depreciation trend of the currency.
And so, with China’s currency the weakest it has ever been, and with FX outflows accelerating sharply, one can’t help but remember the panic observed after the August 2015 devaluation, which not only shocked global markets but woke bitcoin from its long slumber as billions in Chinese savings scrambled to the safety of offshore bank accounts via one of the few still open cracks in China’s great monetary firewall. How long until we get a rerun?
After years of a surge in migrant attempts to make it from the Mideast-North Africa region which goes back to at least 2015, which was a record year for such crossings, this week witnessed a truly unprecedented first.
Starting Wednesday and continuing through the end of the week, a giant flotilla of ramshackle boats packed with mostly African migrants surrounded and inundated the tiny Italian island of Lampedusa, off Sicily. AP reporters described that it happened almost in a “procession” and shocked tourists and locals alike.
Scenes on Thursday into Friday showed chaos erupting given the tiny island only has a population of about 6,500 people, and the number of migrants arriving by boat within only a 24 hour period has been tallied at around 7,000.
The flotilla is believed to have set out from Tunisia, and this particular island is easier to reach given it sits geographically closer to the African coast than it does the Italian mainland.
Over 120 small boats hit the island’s shores within the span of a single day, and the its infrastructure has quickly been overwhelmed, per the AP:
With the island’s sole migrant residence having a capacity of about 450 beds, authorities scrambled to transfer the migrants via commercial ferries or a coast guard ship to Sicily, or Calabria in the southern toes of the Italian mainland.
Francesca Basile, a spokeswoman for the Italian Red Cross on Lampedusa, said they were making a “huge effort” to provide “basic services” for the 6,000 migrants at the centeron Lampedusa.
Migrant boats overwhelming the port of Lampedusa:
Nationalities of those arriving included places like Chad, Tunisia, Guinea, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Sudan and other nations.
Each individual reportedly paid up to 5,000 Tunisian dinars (or over $1,500) to smugglers for carrying out the dangerous crossing, which often witnesses boats capsizing and mass drownings.
There are reports that boats may still be arriving, after an initial surge was reported as early as Tuesday.
Chaos and fights have erupted in the island’s towns and venues as basics like food and enough resources to deal with the thousands of newly arrived are running low.
Amid scenes of migrants scaling walls to get past migrant reception holding center barriers, there was also this unexpected moment…
What’s next? The AP notes that “The newly arrived migrants are progressively being transferred onto the mainland, where their asylum requests will be processed. Many hope to continue to other parts of Europe to find work or reunite with relatives.”
This is increasing the political pressure on Italian PM Giorgia Meloni and other EU leaders to stem the flow into Europe or find a solution. Some are blaming Tunisia and its hardline leader Kais Saied for pushing sub-Saharan migrants out of the country, thus encouraging more to embark on the risky Mediterranean crossing.
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
IRAN/USA
Nothing but a ransom payment
(zerohedge)
5 Americans Freed From Iran Prison As US Hands Over $6BN In Controversial Deal
MONDAY, SEP 18, 2023 – 10:05 AM
The five American citizens (dual nationals) who had been imprisoned in Iran are on their way toward freedom, having been flown from Tehran to a Doha airport where they will be swapped for two Iranians who had been imprisoned in the US. “Simultaneously, the three other Iranian prisoners who lived in the US have been freed,” Iran’s Nournews said. Axios has also confirmed the Americans have been freed from Evin prison.
On Monday two Qatar banks received the transfer $6 billion in frozen Iranian money from South Korea via the SWIFT international payment system. The Biden administration had issued a sanctions waiver to make it happen without running afoul of US law. Amid the swap unfolding, news wires are reporting this unexpected development:
BIDEN SANCTIONS FORMER IRAN PRESIDENT AFTER PRISONER SWAP: AFP
Facing criticism from Iran hawks among Republicans in Congress, a senior Biden admin official sought to defend the release of the billions back to Iran, telling The Wall Street Journal that “The alternative is these Americans never come home.”
According to a review of the identities of these freed Americans, all who also hold Iranian citizenship, they were all arrested on espionage related charges over the past several years:
Among those released are Siamak Namazi, who was arrested in October 2015 on a business trip to Iran on charges of cooperating with a hostile government; environmentalist Morad Tahbaz, who was jailed in 2018 and has served five years of a 10-year sentence after being convicted of spying; and businessman Emad Shargi, who was arrested in 2018 and sentenced without a trial in 2020 to 10 years in prison for espionage. All three are dual U.S. and Iranian nationals. Tahbaz also holds British nationality.
Two more people, including at least one woman, were also released, but have asked that their identities remain private. The family members of two of the detainees, both of whom had been prohibited from leaving Iran, were also allowed to depart with the five detainees, administration officials said.
Washington has long accused the Islamic Republic of using trumped-up spy charges to hold Americans as bargaining chips. Tehran has at the same time accused the US of ‘piracy’ and theft for seizing its sovereign assets internationally, and for stealing oil.
In recent years Qatar has often played mediator in high-level prisoner exchanges, such as the US-Russia deal which freed WNBA star Brittney Griner in exchange for arms dealer Viktor Bout. Qatar in this new swap is charged with ensuring the newly released funds are spent on goods not subject to sanctions, such as food and medicine.
But Iranian President Raisi has defiantly told his population that the government will spend it as it sees fit, having complete ownership of its own assets.
According to The Guardian, “The path to the swap reached a turning point when the state department agreed a waiver facilitating the release of the cash from South Korean banks to accounts in Switzerland and Doha.”
As for logistics, the same report details, “The five Americans have already been transferred out of Evin jail in Tehran to various hotels in the capital. They are due to be flown initially to Doha before flying to the US for a homecoming.” The airport tarmac swap is likely to be less dramatic than the Griner-Bout swap, and footage of the event is probably not going to be made public.
6.GLOBAL ISSUES//MEDICAL ISSUES
‘Statistically Significant Increase’ In Myopericarditis And Single Organ Cutaneous Vasculitis Found After COVID-19 Vaccination
A large nationwide study of more than 4 million people in New Zealand identified a statistically significant association in two adverse events following vaccination with Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine.
In the post-marketing safety study recently published in Springer, researchers examining 12 specific adverse events found an increase in myopericarditis during the 21-day period following both Pfizer vaccine doses. Myopericarditis describes two distinct inflammatory heart conditions that occur simultaneously, myocarditis and pericarditis.
The highest rate of myopericarditis was observed in the youngest participants under 39 years of age following the second vaccine dose—with an estimated five additional myopericarditis cases per 100,000 persons vaccinated regardless of age. Researchers also observed an increase following both vaccine doses in individuals aged 40 to 59.
“Our findings align with international postmarketing studies, case series reports, and cases detected through reports to New Zealand’s spontaneous system that identify an association between the BNT162b2 vaccine and myo/pericarditis, especially in younger people and after the second dose,” the researchers stated.
In addition to myopericarditis, the study found an increase in single-organ cutaneous vasculitis (SOCV) in the 20- to 39-year-old age group following the first vaccine dose. SOCV is a syndrome characterized by inflammation and damage to the skin’s blood vessels without the involvement of other organ systems.
Study Methods
To carry out their study, researchers collected data from Feb. 19, 2021, at the beginning of the vaccine rollout, to Feb. 10, 2022, among 4,114,364 individuals aged 5 and older who received a first and second primary or pediatric dose of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine. During the study period, 13,597 individuals were excluded after testing positive for COVID-19.
The researchers then compared the incidence rates of each outcome of interest for 21 days—the interval between first and second vaccine doses—following vaccination with Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine to the expected background incidence rate from a pre-vaccination period (2014 to 2019) to detect vaccine safety signals.
Outcomes of interest were identified from New Zealand’s National Minimum Data Set—a national data collection system for all public hospitalizations connected to a National Health Index number that allows researchers to link hospitalization with Pfizer vaccination records in the National COVID Immunisation Register.
The 12 adverse events analyzed included acute kidney injury, acute liver injury, Guillain-Barré syndrome, erythema multiforme, herpes zoster, SOCV, myopericarditis (includes all events coded as myocarditis, pericarditis, and myopericarditis), arterial thrombosis, cerebral venous thrombosis, splanchnic thrombosis, venous thromboembolism, and thrombocytopenia.
Outside of myopericarditis and SOCV, researchers identified no other statistically significant associations between Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine and other outcomes of interest for all ages combined. Unlike myopericarditis, SOCV has not been identified as an adverse reaction to Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine, and only a few case reports and reviews have been published in the literature.
Potential Study Limitations
The study had several potential limitations. Although many adverse events of special interest resulted in hospitalization, some conditions, such as herpes zoster, are typically treated in the primary care setting. Diagnoses of conditions following COVID-19 vaccination in the general setting were not included in the analysis and could be underestimated.
Using ICD-10-AM codes to identify outcomes of interest without conducting clinical record assessments could lead to potential misclassification, and changing diagnostic codes before the study period could overinflate or underestimate potential adverse events.
Healthy vaccinee bias could affect results when comparing observed adverse events among the vaccinated cohort with the background population, as healthier people are more likely to get vaccinated. Additionally, a risk period of one to 21 days may exclude potential adverse events beyond the time frame, according to the study.
Researchers Conclude Benefits of Vaccines Still Outweigh Risks
Despite the increased risk of myopericarditis observed during the study, researchers said the risk of myocarditis following SARS-CoV-2 infection is “substantially greater” than after COVID-19 mRNA vaccination, leading them to conclude the benefits of vaccination still outweigh the risks from the disease.
Yet experts acknowledge that myocarditis caused by a natural viral infection differs from that triggered by mRNA COVID-19 vaccination. As previously reported by The Epoch Times, although COVID-19 can cause myocarditis, the myocarditis developed by a healthy young person post-infection is extremely mild compared to the onset of myocarditis following COVID-19 vaccination.
According to pediatric cardiologist Dr. Kirk Milhoan, myocarditis caused by the COVID-19 vaccine differs from viral myocarditis because an infection of the heart isn’t causing the damage. It’s being damaged by the “spike protein that’s cardiotoxic to the heart,” which causes inflammation in the three main vessels of the heart by a different process.
“There’s a difference between the body encountering a virus naturally that causes myocarditis and actively giving the body something we know causes harm,” Dr. Milhoan told The Epoch Times.
The New Zealand study adds to a growing body of evidence showing mRNA COVID-19 vaccination can trigger heart inflammatory conditions in young people.
end
Crooks
FDA Refuses To Change Anti-Ivermectin Statements After Court Ruling
Anti-ivermectin statements made by the FDA are not being changed, even after an appeals court ruled against the agency.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is refusing to change its statements against ivermectin, even after a court said it acted outside of its authority when it told people to stop using it to treat COVID-19.
The U.S. appeals court said that the FDA’s statements, including one telling people to “stop” using ivermectin as a COVID-19 treatment, went beyond the authority conferred on the agency by Congress.
“FDA can inform, but it has identified no authority allowing it to recommend consumers ‘stop’ taking medicine,” U.S. Circuit Judge Don Willett wrote in the Sept. 1 ruling.
Two weeks later, FDA social media posts and a key webpage remain unchanged.
That includes an Aug. 21, 2021, Twitter post, on the social media site since renamed X, that hyperlinked to a FDA webpage and stated: “You are not a horse. You are not a cow. Seriously, y’all. Stop it.”
The page has not been updated either. It says people “should not use ivermectin to treat or prevent COVID-19.”
The appeals court did not order the FDA to take any action and remanded the case to a lower court for consideration on standing.
But Dr. Robert Apter, the lead plaintiff in the case that led to the ruling, said that the FDA should still take action.
“From an ethical point of view, the FDA has been told not to do what they are doing. They have an ethical and moral obligation to follow the court’s directive and stop giving advice against using effective repurposed drugs for early treatment of COVID,” Dr. Apter told The Epoch Times in a message.
The FDA declined to comment.
“The FDA does not comment on possible, pending, or ongoing litigation,” a spokesperson told The Epoch Times via email.
In a statement after the ruling was handed down, the agency noted that ivermectin is approved by the FDA but for other uses. The FDA “has not authorized or approved ivermectin for use in preventing or treating COVID-19, nor has the agency stated that it is safe or effective for that use,” the agency said.
“Health care professionals generally may choose to prescribe an approved human drug for an unapproved use when they judge that the unapproved use is medically appropriate for an individual patient,” it added.
Such prescriptions are known as off-label prescriptions and are common in the United States.
Another FDA page may have been removed in the wake of the ruling. That page said, in part: “Q: Should I take ivermectin to prevent or treat COVID-19? A: No.”
Archives show it was still up as of this year but it’s unclear exactly when it was taken down.
Ruling
In the ruling, a U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit panel found in favor of Drs. Apter, Mary Talley Bowden, and Paul Marik, overturning a previous decision.
The doctors sued the FDA in 2022 over its anti-ivermectin statements, arguing the agency was illegally interfering with their practice of medicine.
While the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act enables the FDA to inform consumers, it does not let the agency give medical advise, Jared Kelson, an attorney representing the doctors, told the panel during oral arguments.
U.S. District Judge Jeffrey Brown had ruled against the plaintiffs, finding the FDA acted within the authority conferred by the act.
The panel disagreed.
“FDA never points to any authority that allows it to issue recommendations or give medical advice,” Judge Willett wrote. “Nothing in the act’s plain text authorizes FDA to issue medical advice or recommendations,” he also said.
“The decision is pretty clear that the FDA is not a physician, and that while it might have authority to inform the public, it can’t endorse particular treatments or advise on how to approach any specific illness,” Mr. Kelson told The Epoch Times.
He declined to comment on whether the FDA should update its statements.
The appeals court decision trumps the previous ruling, but the panel also sent the case back to Judge Brown.
The FDA had asked the appeals court to dismiss the case based on lack of standing. The court said it chose not to decide on the standing issue.
“We see greater wisdom in remanding for the district court to address standing and any other jurisdictional issues in the first instance,” the panel said. “We express no view on those issues, and instead we trust their initial determination to the district court’s sound judgment.”
That means Judge Brown will take up the case again, but that his ruling on standing could be overturned.
The government could also appeal the recent appeals court ruling. That appeal would go to the U.S. Supreme Court. The U.S. Department of Justice, which is representing the FDA, did not respond to a request for comment.
end
Unbelievable!!
Journal Rejects Request To Retract Study Suggesting Negative COVID Vaccine Effectiveness
A scientific journal is rejecting a request to retract a study that found people who received a COVID-19 booster were more likely to become infected when compared to unvaccinated people.
Analyzing numbers from California’s prison system, a research group found that those who received one of the bivalent boosters had a higher infection rate than people who have never received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Their study was published by the journal Cureus following peer review.
Each study has an author who fields questions and comments. They are known as the corresponding author.
Cureus confirmed that the study’s corresponding author has asked the journal to retract the article.
“I can confirm that we were contacted by the corresponding author with a request to retract. However, we have determined that there is no basis for retraction and therefore it will remain published,” Graham Parker-Finger, director of publishing and customer success for Cureus, told The Epoch Times via email.
The study was listed as beginning to undergo peer review on Aug. 16. Peer review finished on Aug. 23. The paper was published on Sept. 4. The peer review has not been made public.
High School Student
Luke Ko, listed as the study’s corresponding author, said that he’s 17 years old and still in high school.
Mr. Ko told The Epoch Times in an email that while others are listed as co-authors, he was actually the sole author of the paper.
“I initiated this study independently, with dual aims: first, to showcase my analytical skills for college admissions, and second, to emphasize the importance of continuously administering updated vaccines to prisoners,” Mr. Ko said.
Those listed as co-authors “had only given verbal commitments to serve as mentors,” he added. “They were not given the chance to validate the data I entered, particularly the incorrect figures related to COVID-19 cases in prisons. Furthermore, they did not have the opportunity to review the final draft of the paper, which was submitted to Curesus.com [sic] without their approval.”
Mr. Ko claimed to have used ChatGPT for analyzing the data used in the study and said he made “significant errors.” He did not specify what the alleged errors were.
“All mentors mistakenly listed as co-authors share my desire to have the paper retracted,” Mr. Ko said.
Mr. Ko has not responded to follow-up messages.
Investigating
The California Correctional Healthcare Services, for whom several of the listed co-authors work, said that an investigation into the paper is happening.
“We are currently looking into the details of this publication and cannot provide additional comments at this time,” a spokesperson for the agency told The Epoch Times via email.
The agency declined to provide contact information for the authors it employs, Drs. Gary Malet, Huu Nguyen, and Robert Mayes.
A number listed for Dr. Malet was disconnected while a person who answered a number listed for Dr. Nguyen said it was the wrong number.
No contact information could be located for Dr. Mayes or Lisa Chang of Governors State University, the fifth listed co-author.
Study Result
The study’s focus was the rate of COVID-19 infections from January to July among inmates. It divided inmates into three camps: those who received a bivalent shot, those who were vaccinated but had not received a bivalent, and the unvaccinated.
During the time period, there were 2,835 COVID-19 cases. Of those, 1,187 were among inmates who had received a bivalent, and 568 were among the unvaccinated.
Researchers also drew from vaccination records and found 36,609 inmates had received a bivalent, while 20,889 had received no shots.
The bivalent vaccines were introduced in the fall of 2022.
The researchers calculated infection rates for the bivalent vaccinated and the unvaccinated but excluded the third group, inmates who received a vaccine but not a bivalent, for unclear reasons.
The calculations resulted in the finding that the infection rate among the bivalent vaccinated was 3.2 percent, above the 2.7 percent in the never-vaccinated group.
The gap between the groups was the highest among those aged 65 and above, though it was described as not statistically significant.
The study stated that “the bivalent-vaccinated group had a slightly but statistically significantly higher infection rate than the unvaccinated group in the statewide category and the age ≥50 years category.”
The conclusions claimed that the study “supports the benefits of COVID-19 vaccination at a population level, especially in vulnerable, high-density congregate settings.”
Dr. Ray Andrews, a retired doctor, disagreed.
“The results showed the vaccines are not effective,” he told The Epoch Times.
Other papers and observational data have also suggested the effectiveness of the vaccines, which have never had clinical trial efficacy data and were replaced by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration this month, plummets over time.
Cleveland Clinic researchers, for example, found in June that employees at the clinic who were “up to date” with their vaccines, or had received a bivalent dose, had a higher risk of becoming infected when compared to others.
end
Robert H:
Oncologist warns Cancers are rapidly developing Post-COVID-19 Vaccination: “I am experienced enough to know this is not a Coincidence” – The Expose
It won’t be long before governments around the world, including the one in Washington, self-destruct.
Strong words, but anything less would be naïve.
As economist Herbert Stein once said, “If something cannot go on forever, it has a tendency to stop.” Case in point: fiat money political regimes. Interventionist economies of the West are in a fatal downward spiral, comparable to that of the Roman Empire in the second century, burdened with unsustainable debt and the antiprosperity policies of governments, especially the Green New Deal.
In the global Ponzi scheme, thin air and deceit substitute for sound money. As hedge-fund manager Mitch Feierstein wrote in Planet Ponzi, “You don’t solve a Ponzi scheme; you end it.” Charles Ponzi and Bernie Madoff
…made some of their investors a whole lot poorer, but the world didn’t come crashing down as a result.
For that—for a Ponzi scheme that would threaten to bankrupt capitalism across the entire Western world—you need people much smarter than Ponzi or Madoff. You need time, you need energy, you need motivation. In a word, you need Wall Street.
But Wall Street alone doesn’t have the strength to deliver a truly cataclysmic outcome. If your ambition is to create havoc on the largest possible scale, you need access to a balance sheet running into the tens of trillions. You need power. You need prestige. You need a remarkable willingness to deceive. In a word, you need Washington.
As Gary North wrote in a brief review of Feierstein’s book, “The central banks have colluded with the national governments in order to fund huge increases of national debt, beyond what can ever be paid off. In other words, [Feierstein] has described government promises as part of a gigantic international Ponzi scheme.”
In a recent interview, Peter Schiff, who was laughed at when he predicted the economic meltdown of 2007–9, said interest on the federal debt alone “will be about a trillion by the end of this year. By the end of next year [it will reach] two trillion dollars—and that’s if interest rates don’t go up. . . . This is a huge debt bomb that’s going to explode.”
Along with this, Reutersnotes that the spread between two- and ten-year Treasuries is at the deepest inversion since 1981. Rarely has an inverted yield curve not signaled a recession.
Can Jerome Powell and his advisors steer the economy into a soft landing? Not this time. “The only landing possible is a crash, where everyone on board dies,” Schiff recently tweeted.
Ponzi and Madoff went to jail for their schemes, but how do you prosecute governments for theirs? Prosecution implies being a part of government. And with rare exceptions such as Ron Paul, those who go into government believe gold is a barbarous relic and the Fed is a good thing that just needs a little government tinkering. So, the guilty will go unpunished, unless public outrage misguidedly turns to nonjudicial violence. The rest will be too busy trying to survive and protect those they care about.
The War on Being Human
A study of history, including US monetary history, makes clear that the state is not in the business of securing our liberty. As the previous nine hundred plus days have made clear, any defense of “liberty” would likely be regarded as hate speech. Instead, we are inundated with the feel-good words of diversity, equity, and inclusion along with the fear-driven campaigns of climate change and killer covid. Challenge any of it and you’re demonized—or worse.
But the state can’t do anything significant without monopolizing money, and the Orwellian central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will be the latest installment to control the monetary system. The new FedNow payment system with its emphasis on user convenience is providing the framework and psychological grooming for CBDCs.
The Shadow Superpower
We can stop this from happening. Two states, Florida and Indiana, have effectively banned CBDCs as money in those states. Other states will likely follow. The government will outlaw cash at some point, but those who use it now are casting a vote against CBDCs.
Many people will turn to barter, some using barter metals, and to the shadow economy. If this sounds desperate, consider how the global black market in 2011 was the world’s fastest-growing economy. Sometimes referred to as System D, it features both the usual, small transactions of flea market trades or workers looking for employment in the parking lots of home improvement stores and also larger, international trades. David Obi, a Nigerian, relying on his cell phone and his own initiative, contacted a Chinese firm to have small diesel-powered generators shipped to his home country, where electric power is often scarce: “Like almost all the transactions between Nigerian traders and Chinese manufacturers, it was also sub rosa: under the radar, outside of the view or control of government, part of the unheralded alternative economic universe of System D.”
Friedrich Schneider, research fellow at Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria, whose expertise is in off-government economies and who coauthored The Shadow Economy, found that System D is growing faster in many countries than the officially recognized gross domestic product. If System D were an independent nation, it would be the second-largest economy in the world.
Conclusion
The future is undecided, but we can help determine the outcome if we take responsibility for it. Wikipedia defines System D as “a manner of responding to challenges that require one to have the ability to think quickly, to adapt, and to improvise when getting a job done.” In this sense success has always depended on System D, with or without government.
The American term for it is life hack, “any trick, shortcut, skill, or novelty method that increases productivity and efficiency, in all walks of life.” Whatever you call it, it describes a spirit all of humanity needs to adopt if we are to survive the coming collapse of government Ponzi schemes.
the medical management of people, how our vulnerable high-risk people were treated & even healthy people, ‘system’ killed them with false positive status, sedation (midazolam), Remdesivir, Ventilator
It was all a lie and POTUS Trump aka ‘45’ was completely snowed, he was lied to by Fauci and Birx, by a deepstate cabal that did indeed topple him; Trump lost due to tampered votes, no doubt serious questions emerged (I even argue republicans do same with votes, we cannot trust the system) yet Trump lost due to the lockdowns…the pandemic response made crazy by his Task Force whose job was to make him look inept and confused and incapable and they did that….yet the response was theirs and he made a grave mistake ceding the response to Fauci and Birx and Azar…their job was to subvert him and they did…he lost many good people, his voters too, their families were hurt by the lockdown lunacy (harmed and died) and the school closures…many people killed themselves. Many children hung themselves and the media covered it up. We were getting reports from the States. Media covered up the real damage from the lockdowns.
They are going to try again and are trying and you have to understand, it was all a lie, from virus origin, manufacture, lockdowns, all the way to the fraud mRNA technology (Weissman, Kariko, MAlone etc.) based gene injection (Bourla, Bancel, Sahin etc.)…all of it.
Nothing about it was real. Nothing.
We lost three years needlessly. Our freedom, liberty, humanity. We were harmed and killed needlessly. They killed us and and many in high societal powers, making policies in Canada, US, UK etc. did this to us knowingly. They know what they did and are doing, especially bringing booster after booster e.g. bivalent booster, now XBB.1.5 booster that is non-sterilizing on the virus antigen (non-neutralizing vaccine-induced antibodies and original antigenic sin, immune imprinting, viral immune escape) and will via natural selective pressure drive more sub-variants to emerge and one could be lethal to humanity. They know.
There have been 2 waves of injury to the world, the first was the COVID infection on the frail elderly & the 2nd wave is devastation due to the COVID mRNA vaccines; see McCullough’s substack, support!
Watch now (18 mins) | By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH I have learned that every major presentation to government officials requires mental construction, rehearsal, and flawless delivery at the appointed time. In 2007, I was selected as one of three expert presenters for a day long session on a product label extension for a class of drugs to treat chronic kidney disease. Preparation involved three trips to Washington, extensive one-on-one coaching sessions from health communications experts, and practice sessions with a “bull-pen” of doctorate level scientists whose role was to produce slides from a massive deck of scientific data when I called for them on the fly during question and answer periods. The setting was the US FDA and the Congressional Oversight Panel. I was on CSPAN for hours. To this day I am grateful for that and many experiences shaping me as a public speaker…
WaPo Columnist Calls for Biden to Drop Out of 2024 Race — Because He Can’t ‘Stop Trump’A prominent Washington Post columnist who is well-connected to influential actors within the top branches of the federal government is urging President Biden to step down and not pursue reelection. His main case? Biden can no longer stop Donald Trump. David Ignatius, a foreign affairs writer for The Washington Post, called for Biden to drop out of the 2024 race …READ THE FULL REPORT
Hunter Biden Files a Lawsuit Against Trump White House Aide Who Published His Laptop ContentsHunter Biden has filed a lawsuit against a former Trump White House aide for releasing the contents of his infamous ‘laptop from hell,’ which includes various pieces of evidence related to the Biden family, as well as personal photos, emails, and text messages exchanged between the first son and his colleagues. Yes, it’s the very same laptop that 51 former …READ THE FULL REPORT
Trump Gets Huge Court Victory, Fani Willis’ Case in ShamblesDonald Trump’s legal team is celebrating a tremendous court victory in its Trump RICO case and Fulton County DA Fani Willis must be throwing things against the wall. That’s because Judge Scott McAfee ruled to sever the cases of Trump Rico. Defendants Kenneth Chesebro and Sidney Powell, meaning they can’t be tried with Trump. ABC NEWS reported: “In the Georgia …READ THE FULL REPORT
Kennedy Assassination Threat: Armed Man Pretending to be Federal Agent Arrested as RFK Event in Los AngelesPresidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been denied secret service protection by the Biden administration despite asking numerous times for protection. The Kennedy family has suffered through two political assassinations so it’s unconscionable for the Biden administration to do this. Yesterday, Kennedy’s fears came true when an armed gunman posed as a federal marshal at his campaign event. The …READ MORE
DOD’s ‘Clarification’ on Gender Pronoun Change Makes Matters WorseREAD MORE…
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MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
Tight Rope Walking
MONDAY, SEP 18, 2023 – 12:30 PM
By Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank
Gloom had re-emerged in the US stock market by the close of Friday’s session. This time the trigger was provided by reports that Taiwan’s chipmaker TSMC has asked suppliers to delay the delivery of high-end chip-making. This served as a reminder that demand is looking wobbly in various parts of the world. High oil prices, the UAW auto-workers strike, an ECB rate hike last week and the proximately of a slew of central bank meetings this week all contributed to the more cautious tone. Shares in Asia this morning were broadly lower, though US and European futures are managing a more mixed tone.
Negotiations between GM and the union resumed yesterday, Ford and Stellantis are due to meet with union representation again today. The latter hiked its wage offer over the weekend to match that of GM and Ford, though there is still a large gap between what is on offer and what workers are demanding. In view of labor market shortages, sticky inflation, and the movement towards increased electric vehicle (EV) production the outcome of these talks may have broad-reaching implications.
At the end of last week, the shares of German automakers were pushing lower on fears that they could come off worse should China retaliate against potential tariffs by the EU on imported Chinese EVs. Beijing called the European Commission’s investigation into Chinese electric vehicle subsidies “protectionism” and warned that it could damage economic relations at a time when German car exports to China have already been weakening. Yesterday Reuters published a report indicating that the EU could become as dependent on China for lithium-ion batteries and fuel cells by 2030 as it was on Russia for energy in the approach to the Ukraine war.
Chinese Foreign Secretary Wang Yi met with US National Security Advisor Sullivan in Malta over the weekend in the latest attempt to soften US-China relations ahead of a possible meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi. The Malta meeting comes four months after a secret meeting between Chinese and US officials in Vienna. In view of Xi’s absence from the recent G20 meeting in India, and the tensions between the US and China, there is concern as to whether he will show for the APEC gatherings in San Francisco in November.
The Malta meeting has taken place at a time of rising speculation about the transparency, and possibly, durability of Xi’s leadership. A second Chinese minister has reportedly been removed from public view. Defense Minister Li Shangfu has apparently disappeared, this follows the absence of former Foreign Minister Qin Gang.
A major outcome from the recent G10 meeting was the proposal to build a high-speed train, road and port project that would link India, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and Europe. The project would be seen as an alternative to China’s ‘belt and road’ initiative. Over the weekend Ankara has pushed back, suggesting there should be no corridor that does not include Turkey. President Erdogan has instead proposed that the route should pass through Turkey.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
Thanks Joe… Gas Prices Have Never Been This High This Time Of Year
MONDAY, SEP 18, 2023 – 06:55 AM
Oil prices in the US jumped back above $90 a barrel for the first time since November 2022, sending worrying signals to The Fed and The White House.
The surge in WTI has dragged gasoline prices at the pump dramatically higher and worse still, given the lag in the supply chain, pump prices look set to go higher…
Source: Bloomberg
Despite the end of the peak summer driving season, gas prices, which were already a factor in pushing up inflation in August, will likely continue rising through next week because of the spike in oil prices.
In fact, prices at the pump are at a record high for this time of year, surpassing prior seasonal highs in 2022, 2012, and 2008…
Source: Bloomberg
According to AAA, at least a dozen states have gas prices averaging $4 a gallon or higher, including Colorado, North Dakota, and California.
President Biden acknowledged the spike in gas prices, in a press statement on Sept. 13.
“Overall inflation has also fallen substantially over the last year, but I know last month’s increase in gas prices put a strain on family budgets. That’s why I remain laser-focused on cutting energy costs, including by investing in clean energy to bolster our energy security,” said the president.
His administration’s green energy policies have not helped matters, with the White House terminating oil drilling contracts on Federal lands in Alaska.Compounding higher gasoline prices is a simultaneous spike in diesel costs. Diesel prices often climb in the fall due to seasonal consumption from farmers, who use the fuel for harvesting, and as demand for heating climbs. But this year, the prices are still much higher than usual.
Thanks Joe!
Of course, none of that should be a surprise to anyone…
Source: Bloomberg
But that ‘laser-focus’ may have a problem, as since the administration stopped draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, gas prices have risen…
Source: Bloomberg
…and they simply don’t have the room to start draining it anymore – even for its ‘strategic election’ purposes.
Source: Bloomberg
Hope remains but our ‘buddies’ in the Mid-East don’t seem so friendly anymore. Time to start blaming “Big Oil” again, stat!!
end
Oil Surges To $95 As China Crude Stockpiles Hits A Record 1.14 Billion Barrels
MONDAY, SEP 18, 2023 – 02:45 PM
After languishing a multi-year lows until the end of June in the low/mid-70s range after Biden drained over 270 million barrels from the SPR to a near record low in hopes of pushing the price of gasoline lower and achieving short-term political goals…
… oil has since surged by more than $20, or 32% since the low of $71.57 on June 28, its fastest ascent since the start of 2022, a rally that was sparked by Saudi Arabia’s decision to voluntarily cut an additional 1 million bpd of production in addition to the reductions agreed by the OPEC+ group…
… thereby intentionally creating a production deficit of over 3 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, even as China remains the biggest bullish upside case because it is only a matter of time before all the piecemeal stimuli injections lead to economic overheating and much higher demand for commodities, oil demand in China is already at the highest level in 2023.
Yes, even though China’s economy remains (for now) in the doldrums, Beijing keeps buying up every barrel it can find just as it keeps on stockpiling every other type of commodity…
… almost as if it is preparing for war.
Indeed, China’s endgame intentions aside, Reuters reports while that the country’s record crude oil processing and robust imports in August have painted a bullish picture of demand in the world’s largest importer, “what is largely ignored, but shouldn’t be, is the vast quantities of oil flowing into inventories.”
Citing official data, Reuters calculated that China added about 1.32 million barrels per day to either commercial or strategic crude stockpiles in August, with Platts calculating that China’s crude inventory – comprising commercial and SPR – hit a record high 1.142 billion barrels in July. This comes at a time when similar US crude inventories have dropped to just over 770 million barrels, and are rapidly depleting.
China’s oil buildup to record oil inventory levels reversed a rare draw in July, when refiners processed about 510,000 bpd more than was available to them from imports and domestic production.
As we noted last month, July was the first month in 13 that China turned to stockpiles, and came at a time when imports dropped as crude prices rose during the period when July-arriving cargoes would have been arranged. This was reversed in August as strong crude imports and steady domestic output outweighed the record refinery processing rates.
While China doesn’t disclose the volumes of crude flowing into or out of strategic and commercial stockpiles, one can make an estimate by deducting the amount of crude processed from the total of crude available from imports and domestic output.
According to the latest data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s refiners processed 64.69 million metric tons in July, equivalent to 15.23 million bpd. This was up 19.6% from the same month in 2022 and also stronger than July’s 14.87 million bpd.
At the same time, crude imports were 12.43 million bpd in August – the third-highest daily rate on record and up 20.9% from July and 30.9% from August last year – while domestic oil output was 4.11 million bpd in August, which when put together with imports means a total of 16.55 million bpd was available to refiners.
Subtracting processing of 15.23 million bpd leaves a surplus of 1.32 million bpd that flowed into storage tanks.
Putting this together means that for the first eight months of the year China added about 810,000 bpd to inventories, or a total of about 197 million barrels. This means that in theory China could lower imports by about 1.61 million bpd over the final four months of 2023 and still have stockpiles at exactly the same level as they were at the end of 2022, not that China will do that of course, as it appears hell bent on storing every ounce of oil it can get its hands on (the question, again, is why, but we’ll leave that to much smarter folks than us to answer).
In practical terms, China’s stockpiling spree means that China’s refiners could maintain strong processing rates in order to meet domestic demand and lift exports of refined fuels in order to capture high margins, especially for diesel. They could do this while lowering imports, which in turn may put some downward pressure on crude oil prices, which hit a 10-month high on Sept. 15.
The rally since late June was largely sparked by Saudi Arabia’s decision to voluntarily cut an additional 1 million bpd of production in addition to the reductions agreed by the OPEC+ group, of which the Saudis are the leading exporter.
The question now, according to Reuters, is how will China’s refiners respond to the higher crude oil prices? History suggests that they tend to pare imports if they take the view that prices have risen too fast or too high. Conversely they tend to import more and fill storage tanks when prices are low. And so far, China has given zero indication it will slow down its pace of imports.
Still, given that prices started to rally strongly from July onwards, if China’s refiners do trim imports, it will likely only show up from September, or more likely October, given the lag between when cargoes are arranged and physically delivered. That said, China is unlikely to reduce imports in the fourth quarter, especially since its refiners can continue to access discounted oil from Iran, Russia and Venezuela.
But there is a risk that they do turn to stockpiles and it’s a risk that the market seems to be largely discounting.
That’s not a view that is widely shared by the industry, and as crude futures leap higher, traders and analysts are increasingly talking about when, not if, prices return to $100 a barrel.
Among the bullish signs that scream triple-digit oil, we see that across the world, premiums for physical barrels are surging, and supplies from the Middle East, Azerbaijan and even Russia are commanding premiums as refiners clamber to make enough diesel ahead of a seasonal ramp up in demand.
Bullish analysts argue that even with crude now in the mid-$90s, many funds remain underinvested in oil, creating the potential for higher prices yet to come. Speaking on BBG TV, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth sees oil reaching $100 a barrel.
“Fundamentals are very, very strong right now,” Amrita Sen, head of research at consultant Energy Aspects, said on Bloomberg Television. “At this point it’s a short-term thing. I’m not saying it’s going to average above $100, but could it go to $100 for a bit? Absolutely yes.”
The strength, Bloomberg notes, is being led by the physical markets. One of the clearest examples is Azerbaijan’s flagship Azeri Light crude, which was trading close to $100 a barrel Friday as strong profits for turning crude into diesel mean processors are paying bumper premiums for grades that produce a lot of the fuel (something we discussed over a month ago in “US Diesel Prices Surge Anticipating A Soft Landing“).
Those same margins also see once-maligned Russian barrels trading above their benchmark in Asia again, traders said. They were at a discount for much of the time after the country’s invasion of Ukraine.
The strength shows up in the shape of the oil futures curve, too. On Monday, the nearest Brent futures contract was at a premium of more than $1 a barrel to the next month. The structure, known as backwardation and indicating scarce supply, was the biggest since November, excluding expiry days. It’s against that backdrop that even some of the market’s most bearish analysts are starting to concede that $100 looks more likely, particularly given longstanding political risks in producers such as Libya and Nigeria.
Geopolitics, alongside technical trading, “could push oil over $100 for a short while,” Citigroup analysts, including oil permabea rEd Morse, wrote Monday, admitting he had been dead wrong for 2023 with his doomsday oil price predictions. “However, we continue to see progressive loosening on the horizon” he added, because of course he will be right… eventually.
Part of that decline, Citi argues, will be driven by a growth in supply from outside the OPEC+ alliance. It cites countries — including the US, Guyana and Brazil — that can all add barrels to the market in coming months and derail the current tightness.
For now, though, revenue in producing nations is surging. On Friday, Murban oil from the United Arab Emirates was trading at the strongest level since February and rose further on Monday. Barrels from Qatar to West Africa also are soaring, and Saudi Arabia’s flagship grade is near $100.
Those spikes are shifting the focus to demand and the impact on consuming nations. The Reserve Bank of India said Monday that crude oil above $90 a barrel poses a new risk to global financial stability, although one wonders where that math comes from: after all, oil was trading well into the triple digits more than a decade ago when inflation was far, far below where it is now. In fact, in inflation-adjusted terms, one can argue that oil has rarely been this cheap!
While Brent is yet to hit triple digits this year, refined fuels such as gasoline and diesel have been trading above that level for months.
“We are highly likely to see Dated Brent moving above $100 a barrel,” said Bjarne Schieldrop chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. “But oil product demand is likely to hurt more if Brent crude rises to $110-$120 a barrel, and such a price level looks excessive.” Perhaps, but the market will be certain to test just how high it can take oil now that momentum is very clearly in just one direction.
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA/GROCERY TAX?
Trudeau Threatens ‘Grocery Tax’ To Combat ‘Record Profits’
SATURDAY, SEP 16, 2023 – 03:45 PM
In a move that totally won’t backfire and be passed along to the consumer, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has threatened to tax Canadian grocers if they don’t lower grocery costs.
“Large grocery chains are making record profits,” Trudeau claimed Thursday. “Those profits should not be made on the backs of people struggling to feed their families.”
Grocers have until Thanksgiving to stabilize prices, otherwise tax measures may be on the way for ‘Loblaw, Metro, Empire, Walmart and Costco,’ according to Rebel News.
Francois-Philippe Champagne, interior minister, said the Canadian government would also begin to engage with other players in the food industry.
“We’re going to start with the five largest grocers in Canada, representing about 80% of the market, and we’re going to be in solution mode with obvious deadlines and very clear outcomes for Canadians,” he said, adding “We’re going to bring them to Ottawa, talk to them about meaningful action, and if they fail, there’ll be consequences.”
More via Rebel News;
The call for relief comes as grocery prices rose 8.5% in July — nearly three times the overall inflation rate.
However, the Canadian Taxpayers Federation (CTF) believes another tax will not improve affordability when Canadians go to checkouts across the country.
“The last thing Canadians need is a grocery tax,” said Franco Terrazzano, CTF Federal Director. “Instead of hammering Canadians with a grocery tax, Trudeau should scrap his carbon tax, making food prices more expensive.”
“Another tax won’t make groceries more affordable, it’ll make them more expensive,” he said.
Canada’s Food Price Report 2023 predicted a 5% to 7% food price increase in 2023 following 10% increases last year, with vegetables, dairy and meat becoming more expensive.
The average family of four is expected to spend up to $16,288.41 annually on food this year — up an additional $1,065.60 from 2022.
“Not only are some nutritious foods more difficult to find, but they can also be more expensive,” according a report, Evaluation Of The Office Of Nutrition Policy And Promotion.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0665 UP 0.0018
USA/ YEN 147.61 DOWN 0.158 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2392 UP 0.0018
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3515 UP .0020 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 20 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 8.19 PTS OR 0.26%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 252.34 PTS OR 1.39%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN.73% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DPWM 252.34 PTS OR 1.39%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.19 PTS OR 0.26%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.73%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1926.95
silver:$23.17
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 104.95 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.2936
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2926)
TURKISH LIRA: 2./02 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.701…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.337% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.422 UP 1 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.060 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates MONDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 65.18 POINTS or 0.85%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 184.33 PTS OR 1.16%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 114.65 PTS OR 1.55%
Spain IBEX DOWN 81.90 PTS OR 0.86%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 365.52 PTS OR 1.26%
WTI Oil price 91.11 12: EST
Brent Oil: 94.58 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 96.47; ROUBLE UP 0 AND 34//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.7135 UP 4 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.438 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0683 UP 0.0036 OR 36 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2380 UP .0007 or 7 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.420% UP 2 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .701%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147,70 DOWN .077 //YEN UP 7 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3494 DOWN .0002 CDN dollar UP 2 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 91,57
Brent OIL: 94.36
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 4.318%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS PTS to 4.395%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 3 PTS AT 5.064 %
USA dollar index: 104.82 DOWN 19 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.02 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 96,55 UP 0 AND 27/100 roubles
GOLD 1931.80
SILVER: 23.21
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 6.03 PTS OR 0.02%
NASDAQ DUP 22.97 PTS OR 0.15%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.17 UP 0.38 PTS (2.76)%
GLD: $179.39 UP 1.05 OR 0.59%
SLV/ $21.31 UP 0.20 OR 0.95%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Bitcoin & Big-Tech Pump-And-Dump; Gold Gains As Yield-Curve Crushed
MONDAY, SEP 18, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Quiet-ish post-quad-witch unclenching of gamma with the big decline in homebuilder confidence probably the most notable macro news – somewhat ruining the soft-landing religion.
VIX continued higher after OpEx fom Friday’s open as gamma unclenched…
The cash open was very messy in stocks today – Small Caps puked, mega-cap tech bid and then reversed. Small Caps extended losses but the rest of the majors lifted majestically into the European closed before giving it all back…
Regional banks skidded to 2 month lows…
0-DTE traders fought the S&P rally in the morning… and won…
‘Most Shorted’ stocks fell further today, unable to stage a squeezy comeback…
Source: Bloomberg
NVDA’s decline left it unchanged for the last three months…
Bonds were mixed with the long-end outperforming (30Y -3bps, 2Y +3bps). Japan was closed…
Source: Bloomberg
Yield curve flattened (2s30s inverted deeper) bigly back to recent lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin pumped and dumped… again… jumping up around $1000, just shy of $27,500 before giving it all back…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar went nowhere for the second day in a row…
Source: Bloomberg
Spot Gold rallied further (back above $1930)…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices managed to hold gains (despite intraday dump). WTI found support at $90…
Finally, we note that he last few days have seen a trend change in rate expectations. While this year remains on a more dovish trend (no more hikes), next year is shifting hawkishly (less and less cuts)…
Source: Bloomberg
We suspect this “higher for longer” shift is exactly what The Fed wants to see ahead of this week’s meeting.
USA TRADING TODAY:
TUCKER CARLSON..
END
end
II USA DATA
The real unadjusted data shows huge gains in the money market funds due to huge withdrawals of bank funds. Also huge
increase in the emergency Fed bailout program.
US Bank Loan Volumes Dwindled Last Week Despite Sizable Deposit Inflows
FRIDAY, SEP 15, 2023 – 04:40 PM
A big jump in inflows last week to Money-Market funds (and increased use of The Fed’s emergency funding facility) would suggest that banks suffered some deposit outflows. But as we have seen numerous times recently, the ‘adjustment’ by The Fed is all that matters.
On a seasonally-adjusted (SA)basis, total bank deposits rose by $23BN (only around a third of the $70BN loss the prior week)…
Source: Bloomberg
Non-seasonally-adjusted (NSA) deposits also rose by $51BN (up for the 2nd week in a row)…
Source: Bloomberg
All of which leaves the gap between bank deposits and money-market funds gaping as wide as ever…
Source: Bloomberg
Large Banks saw $20.4BN (SA) deposit inflows last week and Small Banks $14.4BN (SA) inflows, while Foreign Banks suffered $11.6BN of outflows…
Source: Bloomberg
For once, Domestic US banks saw deposit inflows last week (both SA and NSA)
Source: Bloomberg
On the other side of the ledger, we saw a very small net increase in lending (for the second week) with Large banks loan volumes rising $2.7BN while Small Banks saw loan volumes decline $1.5BN…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we note that Small Banks are leaking back towards their ‘reserve constraint’…
Source: Bloomberg
And it gets worse as within 6 months and counting, America’s ‘smaller’ banks will need to find that $108-billion plus from somewhere as that is when the BTFP bailout program ends (theoretically).
Maybe it’s time for Regional bank stocks to start reverting to reality?
The last best hope for their balance sheets is a recession – that crushes bond yields (and pumps their TSY-stuffed balance sheets back up). Be careful what you wish for.
END
Homebuilders Finally Face Reality, Confidence Plunges In September
MONDAY, SEP 18, 2023 – 02:05 PM
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
The quote – attributed to Upton Sinclair – sums up the blind optimism that has dominated homebuilder confidence data for the last six months. But in August, reality started to sink in and this morning’s data for September shows another big disappointment as the headline NAHB confidence index printed at 5-month lows (down 11 points in 2 months)…
Source: Bloomberg
NAHB Chairman Alicia Huey said “the two-month decline in builder sentiment coincides with when mortgage rates jumped above 7% and significantly eroded buyer purchasing power.”
Source: Bloomberg
And added that “on the supply-side front, builders continue to grapple with shortages of construction workers, buildable lots and distribution transformers, which is further adding to housing affordability woes. Insurance cost and availability is also a growing concern for the housing sector.”
All three major HMI indices posted declines in September.
The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell six points to 51, the component charting sales expectations in the next six months also declined six points to 49 and the gauge measuring traffic of prospective buyers dropped five points to 30.
Source: Bloomberg
“High mortgage rates are clearly taking a toll on builder confidence and consumer demand, as a growing number of buyers are electing to defer a home purchase until long-term rates move lower,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.
He then appeared to ask for a bailout, or for The Fed to cut rates stat…
“Putting into place policies that will allow builders to increase the housing supply is the best remedy to ease the nation’s housing affordability crisis and curb shelter inflation. Shelter inflation posted a 7.3% year-over-year gain in August, compared to an overall 3.7% consumer inflation reading.”
Worse still, if history is any guide, this decline in confidence will lead to less home-building… and thus no improvement in supply…
Source: Bloomberg
And as confidence ebbs, so the stock price of homebuilders may fade as in September, 32% of builders reported cutting home prices, compared to 25% in August. Additionally, 59% of builders provided sales incentives of all forms in September, more than any month since April 2023.
Source: Bloomberg
And if homebuyer confidence is anything to go by, homebuilder confidence has a long way to go to catch down to the harsh reality of 7% mortgages (when median mortgage holders’ rates are around 3-4%)…
Source: Bloomberg
If manipulating affordability lower was The Fed’s goal, they failed. And the sudden realization by homebuilders that this is more than transitory – and their margins can’t keep soaking up incentives forever – then the real pain is yet to come.
END
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
UAW
UAW, Automakers Resume Contract Talks Saturday As ‘Unprecedented Strike’ Underway
SATURDAY, SEP 16, 2023 – 08:45 AM
On Friday, close to 13,000 United Auto Workers members went on strike at three plants in Michigan, Ohio, and Missouri. This approach, called ‘selective strikes,’ leaves big Detroit automakers guessing where the next labor action will emerge. Such tactics give union negotiators leverage at the bargaining table, with discussions set to restart on Saturday.
UAW strikes have targeted plants of General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis, the Chrysler parent company. Data from Wards Intelligence shows the three plants account for 9% of the Detroit companies’ overall vehicle production in North America.
The union has a war chest of $825 million strike fund that can prolong the strikes if need be. On Thursday night, UAW boss Shawn Fain said the selective strike strategy “will keep the companies guessing” and “our national negotiators maximum leverage and flexibility in bargaining.”
More on the union’s war chest from Deutsche Bank:
Fain’s demands need to be more attainable for automakers. He initially proposed a 40% pay hike for workers for a new four-year labor contract with automakers. All three automakers have counteroffered the union’s pay hike demand at about half.
Deutsche Bank provides a great snapshot of what the union demands and what automakers have offered.
However, automakers are still far apart from the union’s demands. Reuters cited the Detroit News, which said Stellantis raised its proposed pay hike from 17.5% on Wednesday to 19.5% on Friday. Other automakers, including Ford and General Motors, offered similar pay hikes that the union has rejected.
Reuters noted the union and three automakers will resume bargaining on Saturday.
Ford said in a statement the ripple effect of the strike is already being felt:
“Our production system is highly interconnected, which means the UAW’s targeted strike strategy will have knock-on effects for facilities that are not directly targeted for a work stoppage.
“Approximately 600 employees at Michigan Assembly Plant’s body construction department and south sub-assembly area of integrated stamping were notified not to report to work Sept. 15. This is not a lockout. This layoff is a consequence of the strike at Michigan Assembly Plant’s final assembly and paint departments, because the components built by these 600 employees use materials that must be e-coated for protection. E-coating is completed in the paint department, which is on strike.”
Ford has temporarily laid off 600 workers at its Michigan Assembly Plant in Wayne. Also, General Motors told 2,000 workers at a Kansas car plant that operations will be shuttered next week.
UAW Boss Fain said Friday, “We’re not going to wreck the economy. The truth is we are going to wreck the billionaire economy.”
The Biden administration sent two aides, Gene Sperling and acting labor secretary Julie Su, to Detroit to assist negotiations and urge both sides to agree on a new labor contract.
Biden said that “no one wants a strike,” but he believed “record corporate profits … should be shared by record contracts for the UAW”.
“The companies have made some significant offers. But I believe that should go further to ensure record corporate profits mean record contracts,” the president continued.
Even though Biden is the most pro-union president ever, some UAW members aren’t thrilled with the president’s handling of the economy:
“I see a lot more people, I guess, counting their pennies, more or less.
“You mentioned Biden and they are like no that is not working anymore, we need to change things. And I hear lately on the news it is the Biden brand, the Biden brand, but we are not making enough money so we are going to go off the brand. Yes, I am tired. I want to retire one day, but based on the economy, I have to work to lunch the day of my funeral,” Kelly Vankuren told Fox News host Jesse Watters.
So who is the winner after the dust settles? Mike Shedlock from MishTalk explains:
There are two definitions of win, short-to-midterm and long term.
The long term view is easier to state. GM and Chrysler (now Stellantis) already went bankrupt once over untenable wages and benefits. It could easily happen again. And If the bondholders (not that I feel much sympathy for them) were not totally screwed in the last settlement, it would have been much worse for the unions.
Short term, I suspect everyone loses, but Fain and the UAW will temporarily cheer.
Record profits said Biden. Lovely. Then what? Then a preposterous deal, then bankruptcy?
The winner, according to The Wall Street Journal is Tesla’s Elon Musk: “Whatever the UAW Strike Outcome, Elon Musk Has Already Won.”
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON…
end
USA// COVID//VACCINE/
end
SWAMP STORIES
IRS Hiring Another 3,700 Tax Enforcers, Watchdog Warns Those Earning Under $400,000 Could Be Targeted
IRS hiring 3,700+ tax enforcers to audit higher earners but a watchdog worries about audits for those under $400,000 due to unclear “high-income” definition.
The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is looking to hire over 3,700 additional tax enforcers as it ramps up its audit crackdown of higher-earning taxpayers, though a watchdog warns that Americans making less than $400,000 could get caught in the dragnet because the agency doesn’t have a clear definition of “high-income.”
The IRS said on Sept. 15 that it had opened over 3,700 positions nationwide to assist with “expanded enforcement work” that focuses on complex partnerships, large corporations, and high-income earners.
The compliance positions will be open in more than 250 locations across the United States and are part of a “sweeping, historic” tax enforcement crackdown that leverages cutting-edge technology, including artificial intelligence, to catch tax evaders more effectively.
The hiring will be for higher-graded revenue agents, with the IRS calling on people in the financial services industry—such as tax accountants, forensic accountants, auditors, and controllers—to apply.
The IRS is flush with cash from a recent congressionally-mandated infusion of $60 billion in new funding, with some of the money already having bolstered the tax agency’s ranks substantially. Recent reports indicate that hiring is up around 13 percent over the past year, allowing the IRS to hit a decade-high of nearly 90,000 staffers.
But while the recent batch of new hires was focused on taxpayer service positions, the newly announced hiring thrust is looking to give the IRS more enforcement muscle.
“This next wave of hiring will help the IRS add key talent like tax accountants to help reverse a decade-long decline of audits for the wealthy as well as complex partnerships and corporations,” IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel said in a statement.
“These new employees will be focused on higher-income and complex tax areas like partnerships, not average taxpayers making less than $400,000,” Mr. Werfel added.
But Mr. Werfel’s pledge not to target Americans earning under $400,000 rings hollow, given a recent watchdog report that called into question the ability of the IRS to make good on this pledge because it either lacks a clear definition of “high-income” or uses outdated tax examination activity codes that put the threshold for high earners at $200,000.
No Clear Definition of ‘High-Income’
The Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA), which is the watchdog overseeing the IRS, recently carried out a review to assess the IRS’s strategy to train employees hired to audit high earners and big businesses that underreport income.
The watchdog report includes scathing criticism of the IRS for lacking a clear definition of “high-income” earners—despite the very same watchdog asking the IRS to look into developing a better definition years ago.
“The IRS does not have a unified or updated definition for individual high-income taxpayers,” the watchdog said in the report, which notes that the IRS uses different definitions of “high-income” depending on context as various IRS programs address different compliance issues across different parts of the filing population.
TIGTA faulted the IRS for still not having a clear definition of “high-income” for tax compliance even though the watchdog recommended in 2015 that the IRS reevaluate the appropriate income thresholds for its high-income and high-wealth strategy.
“The high-income terminology is being used loosely inside the IRS with no common understanding of what the term means,” the watchdog said.
The watchdog said that in response to its recommendation to the IRS nearly a decade ago to reevaluate its income thresholds, the IRS “made no changes,” citing “internal data analysis results and resource constraints.”
Also, the IRS continues to rely on old tax examination activity codes adopted half a century ago with the Tax Reform Act of 1976, which used a $200,000 threshold to measure high-income returns.
“This amount is equivalent to more than $1 million in 2023, but the IRS still uses $200,000 as the default high-income threshold,” the watchdog said, adding that the $200,000 threshold is “no longer a reasonable standard for high earners given inflation since 2005.”
Generally, the IRS uses the examination activity codes to plan the number of tax-related examinations, although since 2019, its Large Business and International (LB&I) division has been using a modified planning method based on resource allocation.
More Details
One of the watchdog’s recommendations was for the IRS to establish a definition for high-income taxpayers for examination compliance purposes and that, “at a minimum, the IRS should accept the Treasury secretary’s $400,000 directive as the new high-income floor on which IRS leadership can focus enforcement efforts.”
The IRS disagreed with the watchdog’s recommendation. It asserted in a statement included in the report that a “static and overly proscriptive” definition of high-income taxpayers for audit purposes “would serve to deprive the IRS of the agility to address emerging issues and trends.”
The watchdog commented on the IRS’ pushback, saying that the definition need not be “static” and income thresholds should be adjusted based on economic and complexity factors—otherwise there’s a risk that the agency will break its pledge not to audit more Americans earnings less than $400,000.
“When the high-income thresholds are set too low, the result can be higher numbers of inefficient examinations,” the watchdog said. “When the definition is too low, the base of taxpayers earning those incomes is wider so that the IRS does many more audits in that category in order to achieve desired audit coverage.”
The watchdog said that, under the circumstances of a lack of a clear definition of “high-income,” the IRS would not only be conducting more audits on lower-earning Americans (contrary to its pledge not to), but it would also be less effective at its stated goal of closing the tax gap.
The watchdog also said that the IRS’s lack of action in response to the TIGTA recommendation in 2015 to reevaluate its income thresholds means that the IRS is in a difficult position if it hopes to meet its pledge not to raise audit rates above historical norms for Americans earning less than $400,000.
“Because $400,000 will be an important threshold, the IRS needs to update the examination activities codes for individual tax returns,” the watchdog recommended.
Currently, “there is no way to identify the complete population of taxpayers that meet the criterion of $400,000 or more specified by the current Treasury Secretary,” the watchdog added.
The IRS partially agreed with the watchdog’s recommendation to refine its examination activity.
“The IRS agreed to identify the best method to identify and track high-income examinations as part of the work being undertaken to implement the Treasury Secretary’s directive to not increase audit rates for households making less than $400,000 and small businesses,” the IRS said in a statement included in the report.
But the watchdog responded by saying this isn’t good enough.
“The IRS’s partial agreement and planned corrective action will not satisfy the intent of our recommendation, and additional actions are needed,” TIGTA said in a comment.
“The IRS should establish examination activity codes for additional TPI increments, which will help the IRS identify noncompliance at different income levels,” the watchdog added. TPI stands for “taxpayer profile increment.”
Asked for comment on the watchdog’s rejection of the IRS’s response to its recommendation, the IRS simply pointed to its original response included in the report.
END
WE cannot make this up!! Hunter Biden sues IRS (despite deducting hookers from his tax returns)
(zerohedge)
Hunter Biden Sues IRS, Claims Whistleblowers Tried To ‘Target’ And ‘Embarrass’ Him
MONDAY, SEP 18, 2023 – 11:35 AM
Fresh off his felony indictment for gun charges, Hunter Biden is suing the IRS, alleging that agents have “targeted and sought to embarrass” him.
Yes, the same Hunter who tried to deduct hookers from his tax return. And the same IRS that let him ‘call in‘ for interviews (so he never did), and abruptly swapped out the team investigating him in May – leading to several whistleblowers coming forward to allege not just slow-walking the case, but a coverup involving (obviously) preferential treatment.
So, on Monday morning, with Hunter in congressional crosshairs, Hunter’s lawyers filed a lawsuit Monday morning which cites two major examples in IRS whistleblowers Gary Shapley and Joseph Ziegler, who claimed that the agency mishandled aspects of the Biden investigation.
Biden’s lawyers allege that the IRS “willfully, knowingly, and/or by gross negligence, unlawfully disclosed Mr. Biden’s confidential tax information,” and have demanded $1,000 in damages for “each and every unauthorized disclosure of his tax returns,” Fox News reports.
“Biden is the son of the President of the United States. He has all the same responsibilities as any other American citizen, and the IRS can and should make certain that he abides by those responsibilities,” reads the filing. “Similarly, Mr. Biden has no fewer or lesser rights than any other American citizen, and no government agency or government agent has free rein to violate his rights simply because of who he is.”
“Yet the IRS and its agents have conducted themselves under a presumption that the rights that apply to every other American citizen do not apply to Mr. Biden,” the filing continues.
Shapley and Ziegler in the crosshairs?
According to Hunter’s legal team, IRS agents Shapley and Ziegler (the latter being a gay Democrat) “targeted and sought to embarrass” Hunter with statements to the media, and that the pair of agents are only the “most recent” example.
The pair (which regime puppet ABC News referred to as “so-called” whistleblowers) testified before the House Oversight Committee earlier this year, where they say they were hindered at various points in their investigation into Hunter.
Hunter’s lawsuit argues that the pair’s whistleblower status “cannot and does not shield them from their wrongful conduct in making unauthorized public disclosures that are not permitted by the whistleblower process.”
END
THE KING REPORT
The King Report September 18, 2023 Issue 7077
Independent View of the News
The first strike in UAW’s 88-year history weighed on GM and Ford.
UAW members go on strike at three key auto plants after deal deadline passesGM’s midsize truck and full-size van plant in Wentzville, Missouri; Ford’s Ranger midsize pickup and Bronco SUV plant in Wayne, Michigan; and Stellantis’ Jeep plant in Toledo, Ohio.About 12,700 workerswill be on strike, the union said. The UAW represents about 146,000 workers at Ford, GM and Stellantis… https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/14/uaw-strikes-ford-gm-stellantis.html BBG’s @markgurman: Apple iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max deliveries are quickly slipping into October in the US and China, suggesting strong initial demand… So far, in the US, the only non-Pro iPhone seeing shipment delays is the iPhone 15 Plus in Pink… Delivery times growing for 15 Pro Max: 8 week delays in India; 6-7 week delays in China; 7-8 week delays in the UK; 6-7 week delays in Canada
Apple moves to defuse French iPhone 12 row as EU scrutiny steps up Apple pledged on Friday to update software on iPhone 12s in France to settle a row over radiation levels, but concerns in other European countries signalled it may have to take similar action elsewhere. France this week suspended sales of iPhone 12 handsets after tests which it said found breaches of radiation exposure limits…(Apple declined as much as 1% on Friday.) https://www.reuters.com/technology/apple-implement-iphone-12-update-next-few-days-france-minister-2023-09-15/
The Flaw in Apple’s Plan to Make Chips in Arizona No matter what happens with TSMC’s high-profile facility in Phoenix, many cutting-edge chips it produces for Apple, Nvidia, AMD and Tesla will still require assembly in Taiwan… The Arizona factory—which has been a focal point of the Biden plan and will cost $40 billion to build—will do little to make the U.S. self-reliant in chips. That’s because many advanced chips made in Arizona for Apple or other customers such as Nvidia, AMD and Tesla will still require assembly in Taiwan in a process known as packaging, according to interviews with multiple TSMC engineers and former Apple employees… https://www.theinformation.com/articles/apples-plan-to-make-chips-in-arizona-tsmc-nvidia-amd-tesla
Taiwan Semiconductor sank 2.355 on a report that it asked its major suppliers to delay shipment of high-end chip-making equipment.
Chinese Economic Data for August, released on FridayIndustrial Production 4.5% y/y, 3.9% consensus, 3.-7% priorIndustrial Production YTD 3.9% y/y, 3.8% consensus and priorRetail Sales 4.6% y/y, 3.0% expected, 2.5% priorRetail Sales YTD 7.0% y/y, 6.8% expected, 7.3% priorFixed Assets ex-Rural YTD 3.2% y/y, 3.3% expected, 3.4% priorProperty Investment Sales YTD -8.8%, -8.9% expected, -8.5% prior US Industrial Production increased 0.4% m/m in September; 0.1% was expected, and August was revised lower (of course), to 0.7% from 1.0%
ESZs traded modestly high but sideways from the Nikkei opening until they jumped higher near 21:54 ET. The rally was modest and ended at 23:45 ET. ESZs then went inert and traded in a small range until they broke down after the 3 ET European open. The decline ended at 4:10 ET; ESZs went inert again.
After trading sideways, in a tight 4-handle range, from 4:19 ET to 8:24 ET, ESZs commenced a tumble due to downward pressure from the expiration of an estimated $4 trillion of September derivatives.
Usually stocks rally for the open when equity futures expire due to institutional buying of equities to replace expiring contracts. Alas, there were too many traders long for the dump into expected massive buying on or just after the NYSE opening.
ESZs had their first bounce after UM Sentiment for September, released at 10:00 ET, showed 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations declined. The bounce was modest and brief
UM Sentiment 67.7, 69 expected, 69.5 prior; Current Conditions 69.8, 74.8 consensus, 75.7 prior; Expectations 66.3, 65 expected, 65.5 prior; 1-year Inflation 3.1%, 3.5% expected and prior; 5-year Inflation 2.7%, 3.0% consensus and prior
The early equity decline on Friday was intractable. There were only two brief bounces as of 11:00 ET; ESZs sank to 4507.75 (4566.00 high); the S&P 500 Index was 4461 and change. A modest rally into the European close developed. ESZs plodded 12-handles higher by 12:49 ET. They then sank to new lows.
ESZs hit a bottom of 4495.00 at 13:31 ET. An 11-handle rebound ended at 13:43 ET. ESZs rolled over and went inert. A minor dip during late trading pushed ESZs to a new low of 4494.00 at 15:50 ET.
The equity decline on Friday was a delayed reaction to the ugly US economic data on Thursday. Street pundits and the financial media voiced bewilderment as to how stocks could ignore the troubling economic data on Thursday and rally robustly. Once again, these ‘experts’ failed to consider the impact of traders manipulating stuff for expiration.
USZs traded modestly higher but sideways during Asian trading. The broke down after the 2 ET Chinese close. USZs declined from a high of 119 9/32 to 118 11/32 by 10:00 ET. After a spike rebound to 118 27/32 at 10:02 ET, USZ chopped sideways thereafter. USZs were 118 14/32, -20/32, at the NYSE close.
Positive aspects of previous session. Gasoline sharply
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined again; Oil rallied over 1% Fangs declined sharply, dragging Nasdaq down 1.56%; the NY Fang+ Index sank 2.05% The S&P 500 Index sank and closed 49.68 points below 4500
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is The Street back in Fed rate hike denial stage again?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4465.17 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4497.98; 4447.21
The real data behind the new COVID vaccines the White House is pushing The push is so hard that former White House COVID coordinator Ashish Jha and CDC head Mandy Cohen are making unsupported claims the new vaccine reduces hospitalizations. long COVID and the likelihood you will spread COVID. None of those claims has a shred of scientific support. In fact, if the manufacturers said that, they could be fined for making false marketing claims beyond an FDA-approved indication… Pfizer’s version, approved this week as well, also has zero efficacy data and has not been tested on humans at all. We only have data about antibody production from 10 mice. The FDA, or Moderna (frankly it’s hard to tell the difference sometimes), should disclose what happened to the patient who took the new vaccine and had a complication that required medical attention… Unlike influenza, COVID-19 is constantly circulating so there is ample opportunity to run a trial; indeed Moderna already ran a randomized trial. Its trial of just 50 people began four months ago and oddly only reported 14-day side effects. Why didn’t it enroll more people in its trial? Why didn’t it report three-month effectiveness and do a proper trial?… https://nypost.com/2023/09/14/the-real-data-behind-the-new-covid-vaccines-the-white-house-is-pushing/
Heritage economist @RealEJAntoni: Right on schedule: Powell & Co. have officially managed to lose a whopping $100 BILLION – and you’re paying for it; difficult to overstate the level of incompetence needed to have a money printer and still lose money; next stop: $200 billion… https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1702481225976348744
@WallStreetSilv: The Federal Reserve is losing $758 million PER DAY paying interest to commercial banks on reverse repos and interest on reserves. The losses just reached $100 Billion with a B. Before all of these wild games started, the Fed would send its profits to the US Treasury each year. It was usually a few billion $$$ per year. But now the Fed has massive paper losses on their bond portfolio and massive daily losses on the money it has to pay to commercial banks to keep the system from falling apart.
St. Louis Fed (@stlouisfed): Sticky price CPI (slow-to-change consumer prices) from @AtlantaFed rose 4.7% on an annualized basis in August, following a 3.1% increase in Julyhttps://t.co/OXGdUhwHIS
@charliebilello: The average price of a used Tesla has declined 14 months in a row, moving from a record high of $67,900 in July 2022 to a record low of $41,034 today (-40%).
Today – After sharp expiry day declines when beaucoup derivatives expired, stocks tend to rebound smartly in the ensuing session. Plus, traders will play for the Monday rally. This is why ESZs are +6.75 at 20:40 ET. USZs are -6/32.
The S&P 500 Index closed at 4450.32, rejecting the 6-session trading band break out on Thursday.
Expected econ data: Sept NAHB Housing Market Index 50
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4483; 100-day MA: 4363; 150-day MA: 4254; 200-day MA: 4182 DJIA 50-day MA: 34,831; 100-day MA: 35,239; 150-day MA: 33,858; 200-day MA: 33,806 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3814.46 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4586.76 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4431.22 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4485.93 triggers a buy signal
In our Friday letter, we wrote that Rosh Hashanah was on Monday. It was Saturday. Sorry
Biden claims to group of rabbis that he was ‘raised in synagogues in my state’ “I, you might say, was raised in the synagogues of my state. You think I’m kidding, I’m not,” Biden said during a call ahead of Rosh HaShanah, the Jewish new year holiday that begins Friday… Biden previously drew scrutiny in Puerto Rico last year when he said that “I was sort of raised in the Puerto Rican community at home, politically,” even though a paltry 2,000 Puerto Ricans lived in Delaware when he was launching his career… Biden also has a decades-long record of factual embellishments and biographical falsification… Biden in 2021 told Jewish leaders that he remembered “spending time at” and “going to” Pittsburgh’s Tree of Life synagogue in 2018 after the worst anti-Semitic attack in US history, in which 11 people were murdered. The synagogue said he never visited and the White House later said he was thinking about a 2019 phone call to the synagogue’s rabbi… https://trib.al/ZwRK7Cu
@charliekirk11: CNN just spent an entire segment documenting how Joe Biden is a pathological liar:Witnessed a bridge collapse in Pittsburgh in 2022 – FALSEGrandfather died just days before his own birth at the same hospital – FALSEConversation with Amtrak conductor (who was already dead) – FALSEArrested during a civil rights protest – FALSEUsed to drive an 18-wheeler – FALSEVisited Pittsburgh synagogue and site of 2018 mash shooting – FALSEThis isn’t senility. Thirty-five years ago Biden was already plagiarizing foreign speeches and lying about his grades in college. When you lie about small things you lie about big things. If Biden can’t stop fabricating inane personal stories, imagine the whoppers he’s told about Burisma, Hunter, Ukraine, MBNA, China, etc. (‘They’ want Joe to go!) https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1702402374973968549
Here’s why the left is in panic and wants to remove The Big Guy: Biden weighed by economic concerns, age in potential 2024 rematch with Trump, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows But in a worrisome result for Biden, Trump held a small advantage in the seven states where the 2020 presidential election was closest: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Michigan. In those states, Trump led with 41% to Biden’s 35%, and 24% undecided… https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-weighed-by-economic-concerns-age-potential-2024-rematch-with-trump-2023-09-15/
Babylon Bee: White House Says There Is No Direct Evidence That Hunter Biden Actually Exists
New Yorkers screamed at Dem Reps AOC and Nadler on Friday, commanding them to “close the border.” Dems thought abortion would be the issue in 2024. Immigration, crime, and the economy will dictate the election. And, immigration is viewed as contributing to crime and economic duress.
@julie_kelly2: House Republicans could easily expose the rot and corruption at the FBI with one televised hearing on the Whitmer fednapping hoax. Invite defense attorneys and their clients to publicly explain what the FBI did–concoct out of whole cloth a “kidnapping” plot using dozens of FBI informants, handling agents, and undercover employees.
@StephenM: The entire senate is jettisoning its storied history and debasing itself… to accommodate the slovenliness of one man, John Fetterman? Will a single Senator object to this humiliation?
@DC_Draino: AG @KenPaxtonTX has been FULLY ACQUITTED on all 16 impeachment charges. He is now restored as Attorney General & will fight to stop Biden’s open border agenda. The Bush cartel suffered a *major* defeat today…https://twitter.com/realBrandonGill/status/1703160393110041049?s=02
@JackPosobiec: Texas AG Ken Paxton acquitted on all charges. Bush Family goes down in flames.
@realBrandonGill: Here are the 60 Texas House Republicans who voted to impeach Ken Paxton.
Texas AG Ken Paxton warns Biden administration after defeating ‘sham impeachment’: ‘Buckle up’ – Paxton, a Republican, was accused of corruption, bribery and unfitness for office by a bipartisan group of Texas state senators. All 12 Democrats in the jury voted for his impeachment, along with two Republicans: Sens. Robert Nichols and Kelly Hancock… “The sham impeachment coordinated by the Biden Administration with liberal House Speaker Dade Phelan… “Finally, I can promise the Biden Administration the following: buckle up because your lawless policies will not go unchallenged,” the statement read. “We will not allow you to shred the constitution and infringe on the rights of Texans. You will be held accountable.”… https://t.co/gRbiKIWTrC
Turley: Chicago Mayor Johnson Moves Toward City-Run Grocery Stores (Marxism come to Chi) When Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson (D) ran for office, he was propelled to victory by a growing socialist movement allied with the Democratic Party. The Socialist movement has elected a record number of socialists in Congress. … Now Johnson appears to be moving toward a pilot program with great significance for socialist supporters: state-run grocery stores… The Chicago Tribune reported the start of the feasibility study to open government-run stores as part of Johnson’s pledge to advance “innovative, whole-of-government approaches to address … inequities.” What is striking is that Johnson’s office said the grocery stores would be funded with the help of the Biden Administration as well as state funds… (Very thin line between Socialism and Marxism) https://jonathanturley.org/2023/09/15/chicago-mayor-johnson-moves-toward-city-run-grocery-stores/
@chicagotribune: Commentary: In an effort to help fix the state of Illinois’ burdensome pension problem, the Civic Committee of Chicago has made a bold proposal: Raise income taxes for 10 years and pour the $28.5 billion of proceeds into the state’s pension funds. https://t.co/rTDKQyAT2C
A New Wave of Bank Closures is Hitting Illinois According to data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), approximately 8,000 banks were in operation in 2000, but by 2022, this figure was halved… https://franknez.com/a-new-wave-of-bank-closures-is-hitting-illinois/
Biblical cycle timing expert and geopolitical/financial analyst Bo Polny has been predicting hard times coming to America and the world for sometime. Polny contends it’s finally about to start at the end of this year and the beginning of 2024. Polny says “Expect Chaos,” but don’t lose your faith in God’s power and control. Polny has said in the past that man cannot fix the world-wide corrupt swamp, which is run by globalists and Deep State demons. It can only be fixed by God the Father and His Son Jesus. The lynchpin of the demonic corrupt system is the U.S. dollar, the so-called world’s reserve currency. The dollar, which they create out of thin air, is used to control, compromise, corrupt or bribe anyone and everyone on the planet. Polny expects all that is going to change by the end of this year, and you better be ready. Polny explains, “Nixon went off the gold standard in August of 1971. . . . Two years later (in 1973), the U.S. government went to Saudia Arabia and said we will build up your nation and protect your nation if you sell your oil only in U.S. dollars. . . . Let’s use a Leviticus cycle, and 50 years from the fall of 1973 is now. . . . . Two years from the exact day that the Saudis signed a (military) agreement with Russia (August 24, 2021), the Saudis signed on with the BRICS on August 24, 2023. What does that mean? Well, for 50 years, we had the petrodollar. Now, with the Saudis signing on with the BRICS, this is a funny way of saying this, but there is no more ‘petro’ in the dollar. So, what’s the dollar now? Paper, that’s it. It’s only paper. Or another way of saying this is the dollar has run out of gas.”
Polny says this is a precursor to the dollar totally tanking and tanking hard. Polny explains, “When Nixon took us off the gold standard in 1971, there was not a billion dollars in circulation. . . .We are now in the quadrillions of dollars, which means the money factor is off the charts. It’s insanity and insane. In other words, who cares what the money supply is. The money is worthless. That’s the point I am trying to make. Since Nixon took us off the gold standard, the money has become completely worthless.”
Polny says, “What did Rothchild say in the 1800’s? ‘Allow me to control the money supply, and I care not who makes the laws.’ Does that sound like what is going on right now? When you can create money out of thin air, you can basically buy and pay off anybody and everything everywhere. So, what ends up happening is the whole world ends up being controlled by the guys controlling the money. . . . Everything going on as horrific or ugly as it might appear is all in Gods plan. They are walking right into a trap, and it is a trap of Biblical proportions. This is the greatest trap in history. . . . We are going to see volcanic eruptions, and it will be coupled with a market collapse.”
Polny predicts things will get bad for the economy and the dollar at the end of September and the beginning of October. He says “expect chaos,” and then he expects a financial collapse by the end of the year. Polny says, “God is about to flip the financial scales, and that means this will be the greatest financial event in human history.
Polny talks about gold, silver and Bitcoin all going up dramatically as the U.S. dollar crashes. Polny says don’t lose your faith and that God has it all under control. Polny says this has to happen to break the grip of the demons running the world through massive amounts of printed money.
There is much more in the 1-hour and 32-minute in-depth interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Biblical cycle expert and financial analyst Bo Polny, founder of Gold2020Forecast.com for 9.16.23.
AM2052.52
Courageous Discourse™ with Dr. Peter McCullough & John Leake
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