Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price

USD oz AM2001.82

PM2006.49

Historical SGE Fix

NEW YORK PRICE AT THE SAME TIME: $1933.00

premium $73.00

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Bitcoin morning price:, $27,102 DOWN 28 Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $26,927 DOWN 209 dollars

Platinum price closing $937.35 DOWN $29.30

Palladium price; $1283.00 UP $17,80

END

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FOMC; today’s FOMC and resultant action was all pre ordained. The banker crooks wanted a much higher gold/silver smack than what they got. The reason: gold arbitrage through London-Shanghai and Moscow is killing them!

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Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,703.78 UP 7,46 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)

BRITISH GOLD: 1565,19 UP 6.78 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)

EURO GOLD: 1812.26 UP 3.82 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,932.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/19/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 09/21/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

323 H HSBC 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 3

TOTAL: 3 3
MONTH TO DATE: 3,867

JPMorgan stopped 0/22 contracts.

FOR SEPT.:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2023. CONTRACT: 3 NOTICES FOR 300 OZ or 0.00933 TONNES

total notices so far: 3867 contracts for 386,700 oz (12.027 tonnes)

FOR SEPT:

SILVER NOTICES: 1 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 5,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 2617 for 13,085,000 oz

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END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $13.00

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.83 TONNES

Silver//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 35 CENTS AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 450.133 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 409 CONTRACTS TO 125,749 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.0 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A FAIR SIZED 393 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 395 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES

WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.00). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 1397 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:

A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 903 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 14.420 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S ZERO QUEUE JUMP OF NIL OZ//NEW TOTAL 13.410 MILLION OZ + OUR CRIMINAL ISSUANCE OF 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS//NEW TOTALS EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.0 MILLION OZ: NEW TOTALS SILVER STANDING: 16.410 MILLION OZ// /// / //FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 395 CONTRACTS)/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -85 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT:

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 13 days, total 9780 contracts: OR 48.900 MILLION OZ (752 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 48.900 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 48.900 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 409 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.0 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 903 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 14.2 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP .+ 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//PRIOR TOTAL FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 3.0 MILLION OZ/TOTAL EXCH. FOR RISK /NEW TOTALS STANDING 16.410 MILLION OZ// /// WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 1312 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED 395 CONTRACTS//SMALL FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION AS THE SHORTS CAPITULATED. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (395) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .

WE HAD 1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2467 CONTRACTS TO 438,078 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED: –0 CONTRACTS

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 2467 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR TINY $0.60 GAIN IN PRICE//TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 12.656 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 400 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING 14.510 TONNES + /A FAIR (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 862 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.60 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A TINY SIZED GAIN OF 195 OI CONTRACTS (0.6065 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2662 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 440,545

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 195 CONTRACTS WITH 2467 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2662 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 195 CONTRACTS OR 0.6065 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 862 CONTRACTS)

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2662 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (2867) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 195 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 12.656 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP TO LONDON OF 400 OZ/// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH SOME TAS LIQUIDATION COVERING THEIR SHORTFALL DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 862 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 31,207 CONTRACTS OR 3,120,700 OZ OR 97.06 TONNES IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2400 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 97.06 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 97.07/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.73% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 97.07 TONNES (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 409 CONTRACTS OI TO 125,749 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE A GOOD 395 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 903 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 903 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 494 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 903 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1312 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 6.560 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.00 GAIN IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.39 PTS OR 0.52% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 111.57 PTS OR 0.62%/ /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 218.81 PTS OR .66% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.45 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.2966 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.3032 /Oil DOWN TO 90.49 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 93.62 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2497 CONTRACTS TO 438,078 DESPITE OUR TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.60 ON TUESDAY.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2662 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 2662 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2662 CONTRACTS

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A TINY SIZED TOTAL OF 195 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2662 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2467 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL ADVANCE IN PRICE OF $0.60//TUESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 862 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: SEPT (14.510) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR: 19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676 tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 14.510 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $0.60) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A TINY GAIN OF 195 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF TUESDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 0.6065 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (12.656 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 400 OZ//NEW STANDING 14.510 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $0.60.

WE HAD – REMOVED 0 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 195 CONTRACTS OR 19500 OZ OR 0.6065 TONNES.

Estimated gold volume today:// 191,029 poor

final gold volumes/yesterday 139,618 awful

//speculators have left the gold arena

//SEPT 20/ /// THE SEPT. 2023 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	10,522.942 OZ ASAHI BRINKS .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	NIL
No of oz served (contracts) today	3 notice(s) 300 OZ 0.00933 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	798 contracts 79800 oz 2.482 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	3867 notices 386700 OZ 12.027 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	x

0 dealer deposit:

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

customer deposits: 0

total customer deposits: NIL oz

we had 2 customer withdrawals

i) Out of ASAHI 8583.231 oz

ii) Out of Brinks 1739.711 oz

total withdrawals 10,322.942 oz oz

Adjustments; 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER.

For the front month of SEPTEMBER we have an oi of 801 contracts having LOST 18 contracts. We had

22 contracts were served on TUESDAY, so we GAINED an additional 4 CONTRACTS or AN ADDITIONAL 400 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of Sept

Oct LOST 435 contracts to 22,985 contracts.

NOV GAINED 74 CONTRACTS to stand at 98

December LOST 2733 contracts UP to 375,019 contracts.

We had 3 contracts filed for today representing 300 oz

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 3 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 22 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2023. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3867 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (801 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 3 x 100 oz per contract equals 466,500 OZ OR 14.510 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non active month of SEPT.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month: No of notices filed so far (3867) x 100 oz + (xxx) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (3) x 100 oz) which equals 466,100 oz standing OR 14.500 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 14.510 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 2,016,871.449 OZ 62.733 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 20,931,908.140 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,801,765.332 (335,98 tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,130,142.808 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,784,894 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 273.24 tonnes//dropping like a stone

END

SILVER/COMEX

SEPT 20

//2023// THE SEPT 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	nil oz .
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	30,954.871 oz Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)	1 CONTRACT(S) (5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	65 contracts (325,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	2617 Contracts (13,085,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposit: 0

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 1 deposit customer account:

i) Into Delaware: 30,954.871 oz

total customer deposit 30,954.891 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 136.901 million oz/274.079 million or 50.00%

Comex withdrawals 0

total: nil oz

adjustments: 2 dealer to customer

i)ASAHI 100,108.290 oz

ii) Malca 242,497.900 oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 42.062 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 274,074 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF SEPT /2023 OI: 66 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 5 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 5

CONTRACT SERVED ON TUESDAY. SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR NIL ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX..

OCT LOST 8 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1017.

NOVEMBER GAINED 0 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 140

DEC. GAINED 280 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 113,253 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 1 for 5,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 51,903 poor

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 43,049 poor

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2617 x 5,000 oz = 13,085,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (66) and the number of notices served upon today 1 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the SEPT/2023 contract month: 2617 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPT (66) – number of notices served upon today (1 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates to 13.410 million oz. + 0 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK..NEW TOTALS EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.0 MILLION OZ//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SILVER: 16.410 MILLION OZ//

There are 42.062 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD UP $13.00 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.83 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD UP $13.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.055 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.70 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.01 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.22 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.69 TONNES

SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.81 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD UP 17.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $6.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $21.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $2.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD UP $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 887.50 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.42 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 878.83 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER UP 35 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.133 MILLION OZ

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 8.801 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.133 MILLION OZ

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.651 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.332 MILLION OZ

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.681 MILLION OZ

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1,009 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.373 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.625 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.834 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.210 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OF SILVER INTO THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 445.044 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.281 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.861 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.751 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.145 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.651 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.896 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 94 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.547 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 917,0000 OZ FROM THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 450.133 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey

Peter Schiff: The Inflation War Is Over; Inflation Won!

https://WWW.ZEROHEDGE.COM/MARKETS/PETER-SCHIFF-INFLATION-WAR-OVER-INFLATION-WON

WEDNESDAY, SEP 20, 2023 – 12:05 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

After the August CPI data came out, Paul Krugman declared that the inflation war was over. The Biden administration and the Fed won the fight. In his podcast, Peter Schiff said he actually agrees with Krugman, at least in part. The inflation war is over. But who really won?

Last week’s CPI data showed price inflation heating up again, driven by climbing oil prices. Despite CPI rising to 3.7% in August after dipping to 3.2% a month earlier, Peter said most people still think everything is fine.

I think the more important aspect of the inflation data was how few people seem to comprehend what it means. Most of the talk I hear by the talking heads on the financial media is that everything is great. The inflation threat is pretty much behind us. Yeah, there are a few more bumps in the road, but we’re on the road to 2%. No problem. We’ll be there. The Fed is going to be cutting interest rates by next year, so these high rates aren’t really a problem. It’s just a temporary nuisance until we get back to low rates.”

Peter mentioned one pundit who proclaimed inflation has topped out and it’s coming down.

How can he say that when if you actually look at what’s happening, it’s the reverse? Inflation has bottomed out and now it’s rising.”

We had a long run of low inflation as the government measures it. (Not necessarily how people live it.) We enjoyed more than a decade with CPI averaging less than 2%. That all changed in 2021. Peter called it the “breakout year” for inflation. Then in 2022, it got even worse.

If you think of inflation like a stock, this was a massive breakout. You had a 10-year consolidation, kind of below this 2% resistance, and now it’s a massive breakout above 2%.”

Peter said it looks like 2023 will be a bit of a pullback.

If you were a trader, you would want to buy inflation. Inflation looks very bullish on a chart. It broke out and now you got a little bit of a pullback, and it’s an opportunity to buy the pullback following the breakout. All the evidence is inflation is heading a lot higher.”

Oil prices closed above $90 last week. They are up 8% in September already. Meanwhile, interest rates continue to climb. Americans have a lot of debt and they use a lot of energy. In other words, two important inputs in the US economy continue to get more expensive. At least some of those costs will be passed on to consumers and that will ultimately be reflected in the CPI.

It’s obvious to anybody who opens their eyes that inflation is not topped out and coming down. It’s bottomed out and going up. And the people who are blind to this, who are asleep, they are in for a rude awakening. That is a lot of investors.”

Peter said the thinks we’ll see much worse price inflation in 2024.

All of these rosy Goldilocks scenarios that are out there, they’re all going to fall apart in 2024.”

Nevertheless, after the August CPI data came out, Paul Krugman loudly declared the inflation war was over and the Fed won.

According to Paul Krugman, the economy is great, and we’ve won the war on inflation, and there’s no recession. I mean, how wrong can one guy be?”

Peter said he does think Krugman is right about one thing though.

I agree with Krugman that the inflation war is over. I just disagree on who won. I think inflation won!”

Of course, the Federal Reserve hasn’t officially surrendered, but Peter said when it does, gold is going to go ballistic.

You don’t want to wait for that to buy it. You want to head over to SchiffGold and buy your gold now, and your silver, before this next breakout. Because when it moves, I am convinced it’s going ot be fast.”

end

2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO

3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Bullion fund founder and Canadian Nick Barisheff dies

(GATA)

Bullion fund founder, monetary metals advocate Nick Barisheff dies

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-09-19 08:59Section: Daily Dispatches

Board of Directors of BMG Group Inc., Announces the Passing of Industry Icon Nick Barisheff

Company Announcement
Monday, September 18, 2023

MARKHAM, Ontario, Canada — The Board of Directors at BMG Group Inc. sadly informs the public of the passing of Nick Barisheff on Friday, September 15.

Nick Barisheff was the founder, chair, and CEO of BMG Group Inc.

The company extends its sincerest condolences to Nick’s family and friends and mourns the loss of a great Canadian.

Nick was an industry icon in the bullion bars business and the acclaimed author of the book titled “$10,000 Gold: Why Gold’s Inevitable Rise Is the Investor’s Safe Haven.” Nick was also the author of a weekly BMG eNewsletter, “The BullionBuzz,” where he shared his expert insights with investors and curated the top must-read news items related to the financial markets and precious metals.

Over multiple decades, Nick was deeply involved in the precious metals sector, staunchly advocating for the many benefits that investors can realize through the ownership of physical gold, silver, and platinum bullion. Leveraging his profound comprehension of the precious metals market, Nick prepared various strategies, offerings, and solutions tailored to clients seeking to incorporate bullion assets into their investment portfolios. …

… For the remainder of the announcement:

Board of Directors of BMG Group Inc., Announce The Passing of Industry Icon Nick Barisheff

END

China and India big recipients of Swiss gold exports. Russia’s big gold arbitrage scheme has a lot to do with this

(Reuters)

Swiss gold exports up in August due to higher shipments to India and China

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-09-19 16:16Section: Daily Dispatches

From Reuters
Tuesday, September 19, 2023

LONDON — Swiss gold exports rose by 7.3% in August from July as higher deliveries to India and China offset lower supplies to Turkey, customs data showed today.

Switzerland is the world’s biggest bullion refining and transit hub, while China and India are the largest consumer markets with local demand sensitive to high prices and time of the season.

Supplies to India, where jewellers usually make purchases for the October-November festival season, jumped by almost threefold to their highest since May, while shipments to China rose 1%, the data showed.

China’s physical gold premiums soared to a new high last week, amid strong demand to shore up a depreciating yuan and a lack of fresh import quotas. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/swiss-gold-exports-up-august-due-higher-shipments-india-2023-09-19/

end

4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES//CHINA==LONDON GOLD ARBITRATION

-END-

END

5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:NICKEL

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

END

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2966

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.3032

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.39 PTS OR 0.52%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 111,57PTS OR 0.62%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 218.81 PTS OR .66 %

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 104.68 EURO RISES TO 1.0703 UP 21 BASIS PT

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.711 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.91/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFFSHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.7190***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 4.495*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.776…**

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.065

3j Gold at $1933.25 silver at: 23.32 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 29 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 96.55//

3m oil into the 90 dollar handle for WTI and 93 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.91// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.711% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8972 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9602well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.348 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.418 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.075 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.04…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 14 BASIS PTS AT 4.2965

end

2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

USA EARLY MORNING REPORT

Futures Rise, Dollar And Yields Slide Ahead Of Fed Decision

WEDNESDAY, SEP 20, 2023 – 08:14 AM

US equity futures rose, alongside European markets, as traders awaited the Fed’s rate decision that will be scrutinized for the policy outlook and “dots” rather than the widely expected pause in hikes. As of 7:45am ET, contracts on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both added about 0.2%, with spoos trading up to 4,500. Treasury yields fell across the board, taking their cue from sliding UK rates after inflation unexpectedly slowed and printed far below expectations (CPI core 6.2%, Exp. 6.8%, CPI MoM 0.3%, Exp. 0.7%). The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index traded near the lows of the day, lifting most Group-of-10 currencies. Brent crude reversed earlier losses after it retreated from $95. Gold was little changed, while Bitcoin declined for the first time in three days.

In premarket trading, major technology and internet stocks were mostly higher. Instacart slipped as much as 5%, one day after surging following one of the year’s biggest US initial public offerings but closing at session lows. Intel shares pared an earlier decline as analysts said that the chipmaker showed some progress in its Innovation conference. However, there was disappointment that the event lacked a new customer announcement for the firm’s 18A semiconductor manufacturing process. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

ARS Pharmaceuticals shares drop as much as 47% in US premarket trading, set for their biggest fall on record if the move holds, after the biotech said that the FDA has issued a letter requesting additional study for neffy — an epinephrine nasal spray to treat allergic reactions — in order to support drug approval, according to a statement.
Pinterest shares rise 3.4%. Analysts were impressed by Tuesday’s investor day, saying that the social networking company was upbeat and that the long-term targets look achievable.
Taysha Gene Therapies shares drop as much as 5.8%, after the biotech scrapped the development of its TSHA-120 gene therapy program to treat a rare neurodegenerative disorder following feedback from the FDA. Analysts cut their price targets on the stock, saying that while the update was disappointing, investors were focused on the company’s development of a treatment for Rett syndrome.

As previewed overnight, today all eyes will be on the Fed’s 2pm decision (and Powell’s presser) which is expected to hold for the second time this year following a slowing in inflation, while leaving the door open for another increase as early as November. Wall Street will be focused on whether Fed officials’ forecasts for interest rates, the so-called dot plot, show whether they seem determined to hike again.More here

“While rates should remain steady, a question mark remains over the longer-term outlook,” said Richard Flynn, UK Managing Director at Charles Schwab. “Now that inflation has peaked, we are likely to see the Fed shift to a more surgical approach. There continues to be a possibility of a hike later this year as central bankers target remaining sticky areas, but one more boost is unlikely to trouble the market.”

Britain’s CPI rose 6.7% from a year earlier in August, the slowest pace in 18 months, and less than the 7% expected by economists. The probability of a quarter-point rate increase by the BOE at its meeting on Thursday — almost guaranteed earlier this week — fell to less than 50%, according to swap pricing. Gilt yields tumbled, and US Treasury yields dipped in sympathy after rates on both the five- and 10-year notes hit the highest levels since 2007 on Tuesday.

In Europe, stocks rose and the pound weakened after British inflation slowed unexpectedly. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.6%, with retail and real estate leading gains. Sterling fell as much as 0.5% against the dollar to its lowest level since May as traders bet that the Bank of England is nearing the end of its hiking cycle. UK bonds soared. Here are Europe’s top movers

Delivery Hero shares gain as much as 8.2% as Hauck & Aufhaeuser starts coverage of the food-delivery company with a buy rating, while two other analysts reiterated their bullish stance after the stock dropped to the lowest since May following first-half earnings last month.
UK stocks outperform, with midcaps leading the charge, after data showed that inflation fell unexpectedly to the lowest level in 18 months, easing pressure for further interest-rate increases from the Bank of England.
Ypsomed shares rise as much as 5.3% to a record high after the Swiss pharmaceutical company announced a long-term supply agreement with Novo Nordisk for large quantities of auto injectors. The pact has “very significant” earnings potential for Ypsomed, according to ZKB.
M&G shares gain as much as 4.6% after the UK fund manager reports forecast-beating operating profits for the first half-year of 2023.
Clariant shares rise as much as 3.6% after Jefferies raised the recommendation on the stock to buy from hold, saying the Swiss specialty chemical company’s increased urgency to resolve the performance of its Sunliquid biofuel unit is a “key positive.”
Self Storage shares soar as much as 66% to NOK39.9, as T-C Storage HoldCo, an indirect subsidiary of Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association, agrees to launch a recommended voluntary cash tender offer for 100% of the company at NOK40 per share.
Finsbury Food shares rise as much as 23% to 109.5p after Dbay agrees to buy the UK specialty bakery company in a deal valuing the company’s share capital at about £143.4 million.
Baloise shares drop as much as 9.9% after the Swiss insurer’s profit figures came in somewhat below expectations, according to analysts, and Vontobel says higher claims in non-life will hit earnings in 2H.
Talanx shares fall as much as 7.6% after an offering of 4.88m shares by the German reinsurance company priced at €61.50 apiece, representing about a 6.5% discount to Tuesday’s close.
Air Liquide shares decline as much as 3.4% after Stifel cites comments from CEO, CFO in a London sell-side meeting late Tuesday, saying trading might be more difficult in second half than 1H, especially in Electronics and Industrial Merchant units.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell for a third day as caution prevailed ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with surging oil prices driving inflation and raising the possibility of higher-for-longer interest rates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.6% on Wednesday, led by health-care and energy shares. Japanese and Australian stocks slipped. Brent held close to $94 per barrel, setting the stage for another interest-rate hike by the Fed this year.

Chinese equities dipped after the nation’s lenders kept their benchmark lending rates unchanged, following the central bank’s move last week to hold policy rates steady as officials assess the economic impact of existing stimulus. The CSI 300 Index is edging closer to the lowest level this year.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 gradually weakened after the latest trade data showed Japanese exports and imports remained in contraction territory, albeit not as bad as feared.
Indian stocks declined the most in two months and were the worst performers in the region led by a selloff in index majors including HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 1.2% to 66,800.88 on Wednesday, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined by the same magnitude. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.7%. HDFC Bank contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 4%, following a downgrade by Nomura on rising concerns over private sector lender’s margins post merger with parent HDFC. All but one sectoral index on the BSE closed with losses amid a broad selloff in the market as traders exercised caution ahead of Federal Reserve’s rate-setting meeting. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, seven rose and 23 fell.
Australia’s ASX 200 was dragged lower by the commodity-related sectors including energy after oil prices eased back from YTD highs although losses were cushioned by resilience in consumer stocks.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat ahead of the Fed decision later on Wednesday. the yen touched the psychological level of 148 per dollar, the lowest in more than 10 months. The pound traded as much as 0.5% lower to $1.2334 after UK inflation report; money markets price a 52% chance of a quarter-point hike on Thursday, compared with about 90% yesterday.

In commodities, crude futures decline, with WTI falling 1.4% to trade near $89.90. Spot gold drops 0.1%. Goldman analysts raised their forecast for crude back to triple digits as worldwide demand hits unprecedented levels and OPEC+ supply curbs continue to tighten the market. The Wall Street bank pushed up its 12-month forecast for Brent to $100 a barrel from $93. However, most of the rally “is behind us,” the bank said in a note.

Bitcoin is under modest pressure but resides in particularly narrow parameters and is yet to meaningfully deviate away from the USD 27k handle pre-FOMC.

In rates, treasuries were underpinned by gilts, with futures paring portion of Tuesday’s losses led by belly of the curve. US yields are lower by as much as 3bp in belly of the curve with 5s30s steeper and 2s5s30s fly richer by ~2bp on the day; 10-year yields near 4.34% trail gilts by ~7bp in the sector. UK 2s richer by 14.5bp on the day, lowest yield since July. FOMC expected to keep rates unchanged at the 2pm announcement; the dot-plot update is expected to indicate another hike before year-end in a close call. Gilts outperform in an aggressive bull-steepening move after an unexpected drop in UK inflation opened the door for Bank of England to pause rate hikes in Thursday’s decision. US session includes Fed rate decision at 2pm New York time, released with latest staff projections.

Looking to the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Fed’s latest policy decision and Chair Powell’s press conference. Other central bank speakers include the ECB’s Elderson. Data releases include the UK CPI and German PPI for August. Lastly, today’s earnings releases include FedEx.

Market snapshot

S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,496.25
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 459.08
MXAP down 0.8% to 161.48
MXAPJ down 0.6% to 500.28
Nikkei down 0.7% to 33,023.78
Topix down 1.0% to 2,406.00
Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 17,885.60
Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,108.57
Sensex down 1.2% to 66,775.50
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 7,163.33
Kospi little changed at 2,559.74
Brent Futures down 1.2% to $93.21/bbl
Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,929.80
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 105.09
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.74%
Euro up 0.1% to $1.0695

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

The PBOC said it has sufficient policy space to support the Chinese economy, adding to expectations there may be more easing to come, including rate cuts, after this month’s pause. The comments came shortly after Chinese banks left their benchmark loan rates unchanged. BBG
The European Union is “very far” from imposing new tariffs on Chinese electric cars, a top official told CNBC, just days after the bloc launched an investigation into subsidies given by Beijing. CNBC
UK inflation undershoots the Street by a wide margin, w/headline coming in at +6.7% (down from +6.8% in Jul and below the Street’s +7% forecast) and core at +6.2% (down from +6.9% in Jul and below the Street’s +6.8% forecast). BBG
The UAW weighed an expansion of its strikes against Detroit’s automakers on, after union President Shawn Fain said more plants faced walkouts if carmakers didn’t sweeten their offers. The union will have a Facebook Live event today at 10 a.m. local time in Detroit, where it will likely discuss whether more plants will join the strike. BBG
The United States is discussing terms of a mutual defense treaty with Saudi Arabia that would resemble military pacts with Japan and South Korea, according to American officials. The move is at the center of President Biden’s high-stakes diplomacy to get the kingdom to normalize relations with Israel. NYT
Republicans are working on Plan Bs to avoid to a shutdown after days of chaos (some of those Plan Bs involve asking Democrats for help), but time is of the essence and there is still enormous division within the caucus. The Hill
At today’s meeting Fed officials are likely to make fairly straightforward revisions to their economic projections. For 2023, we expect a substantial upward revision to GDP growth (+1.1pp to +2.1%) and moderate downward revisions to the unemployment rate (-0.2pp to 3.9%) and core inflation (-0.4pp to 3.5%). For November, we think that further labor market rebalancing, better news on inflation, and the likely upcoming Q4 growth pothole will convince more participants that the FOMC can forgo a final hike this year, as we think it ultimately will. On neutral, we expect the median longer run rate dot to finally rise a bit to 2.75%. GIR
Pimco warned markets may be underestimating the risks of both one more Fed hike and a US recession, making haven assets a preferred play. Money manager Geraldine Sundstrom recommends sticking to assets that offer a pickup in yields, including US agency mortgages and some financial credits. BBG
US stockpiles fell by 5.25 million barrels last week, the API is said to have reported. That would bring holdings to the lowest in more than nine months if confirmed by the EIA today. Inventories at Cushing also slid. BBG
We have nudged up our 12-month ahead Brent forecast from $93/bbl to $100/bbl as we now expect modestly sharper inventory draws. The key reason is that significantly lower OPEC supply and higher demand more than offset significantly higher US supply. Overall, we believe that OPEC will be able to sustain Brent in an $80-$105 range in 2024 by leveraging robust Asia-centric global demand growth (1.8mb/d) and by exercising its pricing power assertively. GIR

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower with risk appetite dampened ahead of the incoming deluge of central bank policy announcements including the latest FOMC rate decision and dot plot projections. ASX 200 was dragged lower by the commodity-related sectors including energy after oil prices eased back from YTD highs although losses were cushioned by resilience in consumer stocks. Nikkei 225 gradually weakened after the latest trade data showed Japanese exports and imports remained in contraction territory, albeit not as bad as feared. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the subdued mood after the PBoC unsurprisingly maintained its benchmark 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates at 3.45% and 4.20%, respectively, while Country Garden’s dollar bondholders have been left in the dark regarding a coupon payment which was due on Monday although the developer still has a 30-day grace period.

Top Asian News

Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep) 3.45% vs. Exp. 3.45% (Prev. 3.45%); 5Y (Sep) 4.20% vs. Exp. 4.20% (Prev. 4.20%)
PBoC official said China’s monetary policy still has ample policy room to respond to unexpected challenges and changes, while they will continue to implement prudent monetary policy and step up counter-cyclical adjustments. Furthermore, the PBoC will keep liquidity reasonably ample and enhance the stability of credit growth, according to Reuters.
NDRC Vice Chairman Cong Liang said China’s macroeconomic policies have been effective and that China’s economy faces a lot of difficulties and challenges, while he added that economic positives are increasing and those shorting China will surely be proven wrong.
US State Department said Climate Envoy Kerry met with Chinese Vice President Han and emphasised the need for China to raise ambition in efforts to accelerate decarbonisation and reduce emissions of methane, according to Reuters.
China exported zero germanium and gallium products in August which are materials key to the semiconductor industry, according to customs data.

European bourses are in the green, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, with the FTSE 100 +0.7% outperforming after sub-forecast inflation data and associated GBP softness. Sectors are primarily firmer, Real Estate and Banking names are outperforming on the UK data while Energy and Basic Resources lag with benchmarks mixed/softer. Stateside, futures are essentially flat across the board ahead of the FOMC, ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%;

Top European News

ECB’s Schnabel says new supply-side shocks may pose upside risks to inflation; Dynamics in wage growth remain strong, while labour shortages persist; Energy shock threatens to leave permanent scars in the euro area. via a slide release
The Times’ Shadow MPC voted 7-2 in favour of a 25bps hike to the Bank Rate to “ensure inflation is finally under control”.
Swedish Finance Ministry says new spending in the 2024 budget totals SEK 39bln (exp. ~40bln); prioritising fighting inflation and supporting households/welfare.
Swiss Government Forecasts (SECO): downgrades 2023 CPI (2.2%), upgrades 2024 CPI (1.9%); upgrades 2023 GDP, downgrades 2024 GDP; says global economy likely to take longer to recover from challenges assumed in the June forecast. Click here for more detail.
UK PM Sunak has reportedly summoned his cabinet, according to Sun reporter Cole; “Looks like we may be hearing the new Net Zero plan today”.

Sterling undermined by softer than forecast UK CPI metrics pre-BoE as casts doubt over 25 bp rate hike, Cable retreats from 1.2397 to 1.2335 before recovering.
Yen finally relents in battle to say above 148.00 vs. Dollar regardless of verbal intervention from a top Japanese FX diplomat.
DXY regroups, but remains cautious within the 105.00-260 range awaiting Fed guidance.
Euro retains sight of 1.0700 against Greenback and is flanked by option expiries.
Loonie loses post-Canadian inflation data thrust as crude prices retreat, Usd/Cad straddles 1.3450 ahead of BoC minutes and conscious of 1.1 bn expiry interest nearby.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1732 vs exp. 7.2926 (prev. 7.1733)
PBoC official Zou said the global FX market has seen great volatility this year and said more attention will be paid to changes in the yuan exchange rate against a basket of currencies. Zou added there is a solid foundation to keep the yuan exchange rate basically stable and said they will resolutely correct one-sided pro-cyclical behaviour for the yuan exchange rate, while they will resolutely curb disruptions to market order and guard against exchange rate overshooting risks.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the Treasury generally understands the need to smooth out volatility in exchange rates but not to influence forex levels, while she added that the view on any Japanese yen intervention would depend on the circumstances, according to Reuters.
Japan’s top FX diplomat Kanda says excessive yen moves are not desirable and watching FX with a high level of urgency, while they will take appropriate steps on FX as needed and are closely communicating with US and overseas FX

Fixed Income

Gilts front-run debt recovery before Central Bank cavalry arrives as softer than consensus UK inflation data calls 25 bp BoE hike into question.
10-year bond extends to 96.49 from 95.99, Bunds and T-note tag along within 127.74-30 and 109-10/03+ respective ranges awaiting FOMC.

Commodities

Crude benchmarks pressured after seven consecutive sessions of upside and ahead of multiple days of broader macro risk events, with pressure potentially also emanating from the downbeat APAC tone.
Dutch TTF has trimmed initial upside and has reverted back to the sub-37.50/MWh trough, as participants continue to focus on Australian updates. Most recently, downside came alongside Offshore saying negotiations resulted in some concession on both sides.
Spot gold is flat with numerous technicals in close proximity, Palladium outperforms potentially on EU auto registration numbers while base peers have managed to lift off of initial lows.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -5.3mln (exp. -2.2mln), Gasoline +0.7mln (exp. +0.3mln), Distillate -0.3mln (exp. +0.2mln), Cushing -2.6mln.
Goldman Sachs raises its 12-month ahead Brent forecast to USD 100/bbl (prev. USD 93/bbl), expects modestly sharper inventory draws. Click here for more detail.
Chevron (CVX) says no agreement has been reached with unions following further consultation sessions held this week with the Fair Work Commission. Ongoing lack of agreement reinforces the view that there is “no reasonable prospect of an agreement between the parties”. Engaged in meaningful negotiations to finalise enterprise agreements with market competitive remuneration and conditions. However, unions continue to ask for terms significantly higher than the market.
Australia’s Offshore Alliance says negotiations before the commissioner were useful and resulted in some concessions on both sides; adds that members remain open to compromise but Chevron must table a viable offer.
China’s state planner NDRC to increase retail prices of gasoline and diesel by CNY 385/t and CNY 370/t respectively from September 21st.

Geopolitics

Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and the US called for the completion of the demarcation of Kuwaiti-Iraqi maritime borders and urged Iraq to settle its internal legal status to ensure regulation of maritime in the Khor Abdallah Waterway, while they also urged Iran to fully cooperate with the IAEA, according to a joint statement.
Iranian President Raisi said Washington should prove its goodwill and determination for the revival of the 2015 nuclear pact, while he reportedly demanded that the US end its sanctions on Iran.
US military official says the joint military exercises with Armenia will begin today on time.
Ceasefire has reportedly been announced in Karabakh, according to Sputnik Armenia and Ifax; Karabakh Armenians to meet with Azeri authorities on September 21st, Ifax reports; Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister says Yerevan could theoretically live under Azerbaijan but dialogue is crucial.
Russia’s Kremlin says Russian President Putin is to meet China’s top diplomat Wang Yi.

US Event Calendar

07:00: Sept. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.8%
14:00: Sept. Interest on Reserve Balances R, est. 5.40%, prior 5.40%
14:00: Sept. FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Boun, est. 5.25%, prior 5.25%
14:00: Sept. FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Boun, est. 5.50%, prior 5.50%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The long-term study shows how this has been the worst start to a decade for US Treasuries since our data begins in 1800 and yesterday incrementally added to this as 10yr US yields hit 15-plus year highs, with 2yrs at 16-year highs, just as we approach an important trio of central bank meetings. That starts with the Federal Reserve tonight, before we hear from the Bank of England tomorrow, and then the Bank of Japan on Friday morning. But despite all the recent speculation that central banks are near the end of their tightening cycles, the backdrop this week has been a much more hawkish one. For instance, oil prices hit new 10-month highs intra-day though they were marginally lower on the day by the close. We also had an upside surprise from Canada’s CPI, which added to the sense that rate cuts weren’t coming anytime soon.

Of course, the main focus today will be on the Federal Reserve’s decision tonight, along with Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. In terms of the actual decision, they’re widely expected to leave rates unchanged, so the bigger focus is likely to be on their latest Summary of Economic Projections, which includes the dot plot for where officials see rates over the years ahead. At the last quarterly release in June, the dot plot pointed to two further rate hikes by year-end, and we got one of them at the most recent meeting in July. Our US economists still expect the Fed to signal one further hike this year, but they think Powell will leave open the question of when that tightening could occur, and will lean heavily on a message of data dependency. And even though they expect the Fed’s forecasts to show softer inflation, they think that stronger growth and lower unemployment should counterbalance that, meaning that the 2024 dot will show one less rate cut in 2024 as well. See their full preview here.

We’ll see where things stand after the Fed’s decision, but a key story for much of yesterday was the continued rise in oil prices. Brent Crude almost reached $96/bl yesterday morning but it retreated to close a touch below Monday’s 10-month high (-0.10% to $94.34/bbl) and this morning is trading at $93.23/bbl as we go to print. So a big correction in the last 15 hours from the peaks.

Elsewhere on the energy front, we saw a sizeable spike in European natural gas prices. One month TTF gas futures were up +9.84% to EUR 37.4/MWh, their highest level in three weeks, amid delays to production at Norwegian gas fields.

In other inflationary news, we had another upside inflation surprise out of Canada, as CPI hit +4.0% in August (vs. +3.8% expected). That led investors to price in a much higher likelihood that the Bank of Canada would hike rates next month, with the likelihood up from 25% on Monday to 51% after the close yesterday. In turn, Canadian sovereign bonds significantly underperformed, with the 10yr yield up +11.4bps yesterday to a new post-2008 high.

Those inflationary developments led investors to price in higher rates for longer. Indeed, the rate priced in for the Fed’s December 2024 meeting hit a new high for the cycle at 4.63%. That means less than three 25bp cuts are now priced in by end-2024. That helped boost yields across the curve, with the 2yr Treasury yield (+3.7bps) closing at a new high for this cycle at 5.09%, and the 10yr yield (+5.6bps) also closed at a new cycle high of 4.36%. It was much the same story in Europe, where yields on 10yr bunds (+3.0bps) and BTPs (+0.7bps) hit a 6-month high, whilst yields on 10yr French OATs (+2.8bps) closed at their highest since 2012. The only exception to this pattern were yields on 10yr gilts (-4.9bps), which fell ahead of this morning’s CPI report for August. That’ll be released shortly after we go to press, and will be the last big data release ahead of the Bank of England’s decision tomorrow. Headline is expected to pick up two tenths to 7% YoY with core down a tenth to 6.8% YoY.

The prospect of higher rates provided a tough backdrop for equities, though the S&P 500 crept back up in the last few hours of trading from being down -0.8% at the early session lows to close ‘only’ -0.22% lower, albeit to a 3-week low. The moderate decline was a broad-based one, with 8 of 10 S&P 500 sector groups down on the day. The other major US indices saw similar declines, including the Dow Jones (-0.31%) and the NASDAQ (-0.23%), whilst the small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.42%) fell to its lowest level since late-June. In Europe the picture was a bit more positive, but the STOXX 600 still fell -0.04%.

In Asia, the Nikkei (-0.36%), Hang Seng (-0.58%), CSI (-0.31%), Shanghai Composite (-0.34%) and the KOSPI (-0.05%) are all slightly lower alongside S&P 500 (-0.11%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.16%) futures.

Early morning data showed that Japan’s exports dropped -0.8% y/y in August (v/s -2.1% expected) and against a -0.3% in July, making it the second month of declines (even if better than expected) mainly due to weak exports to China (-11.0% y/y). Meanwhile, imports weakened -17.8% y/y in August less than the expected fall of -20.0% as against a revised decline of -13.6%.

In FX, the Japanese yen pared its initial gains against the dollar to trade at 147.81 (+0.03%) after US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the US would show understanding over Japan’s intervention to support its currency if the measures are aimed at smoothing out undue volatility. You’re unlikely to see anything ahead of the FOMC and BoJ (Friday) but this maybe makes intervention a bit easier going forward. Elsewhere, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) left its 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates unchanged at 3.45% and 4.2%, respectively.

When it came to yesterday’s other data, US housing starts fell significantly more than expected in August, with an annualised rate of 1.283m (vs. 1.439m expected). That’s their lowest level since May 2020, when the economy was still affected by the initial wave of Covid-19. However, building permits moved up to an annualised 1.543m (vs. 1.440m expected), which is their highest level since October. Permits tend to be the more reliable data point so the uncertainty around housing continues after Monday’s poor NAHB. Separately in the Euro Area, the final August CPI reading was revised down to +5.2%, compared with the initial flash reading at +5.3%.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Fed’s latest policy decision and Chair Powell’s press conference. Other central bank speakers include the ECB’s Elderson. Data releases include the UK CPI and German PPI for August. Lastly, today’s earnings releases include FedEx.

END

2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Odds of a BoE hike /PAUSE to 50/50 post-CPI, FOMC looms – Newsquawk US Market Open

WEDNESDAY, SEP 20, 2023 – 06:23 AM

FTSE 100 outperforms after sub-forecast UK inflation data, Real Estate and Banking leading
Stateside, futures are essentially flat pre-FOMC
GBP undermined as market pricing pivots to 50/50 for pause/hike by the BoE, DXY at 105.00, USD/JPY over 148.00
EGBs & USTs rise on significant Gilt upside, US yields lower with the short-end leading
Crude benchmarks pressured after seven sessions of upside, XAU flat while Palladium outperforms
Looking ahead, highlights include US MBAs, FOMC & Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference, BCB Policy Announcement, BoC Minutes, ECB’s Elderson.

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EQUITIES

European bourses are in the green, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5%, with the FTSE 100 +0.7% outperforming after sub-forecast inflation data and associated GBP softness.
Sectors are primarily firmer, Real Estate and Banking names are outperforming on the UK data while Energy and Basic Resources lag with benchmarks mixed/softer.
Stateside, futures are essentially flat across the board ahead of the FOMC, ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%; Newsquawk preview available here.
Click here for more detail.

FX

Sterling undermined by softer than forecast UK CPI metrics pre-BoE as casts doubt over 25 bp rate hike, Cable retreats from 1.2397 to 1.2335 before recovering.
Yen finally relents in battle to say above 148.00 vs. Dollar regardless of verbal intervention from a top Japanese FX diplomat.
DXY regroups, but remains cautious within the 105.00-260 range awaiting Fed guidance.
Euro retains sight of 1.0700 against Greenback and is flanked by option expiries.
Loonie loses post-Canadian inflation data thrust as crude prices retreat, Usd/Cad straddles 1.3450 ahead of BoC minutes and conscious of 1.1 bn expiry interest nearby.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1732 vs exp. 7.2926 (prev. 7.1733)
PBoC official Zou said the global FX market has seen great volatility this year and said more attention will be paid to changes in the yuan exchange rate against a basket of currencies. Zou added there is a solid foundation to keep the yuan exchange rate basically stable and said they will resolutely correct one-sided pro-cyclical behaviour for the yuan exchange rate, while they will resolutely curb disruptions to market order and guard against exchange rate overshooting risks.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the Treasury generally understands the need to smooth out volatility in exchange rates but not to influence forex levels, while she added that the view on any Japanese yen intervention would depend on the circumstances, according to Reuters.
Japan’s top FX diplomat Kanda says excessive yen moves are not desirable and watching FX with a high level of urgency, while they will take appropriate steps on FX as needed and are closely communicating with US and overseas FX
Click here for more detail.
Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

Gilts front-run debt recovery before Central Bank cavalry arrives as softer than consensus UK inflation data calls 25 bp BoE hike into question.
10-year bond extends to 96.49 from 95.99, Bunds and T-note tag along within 127.74-30 and 109-10/03+ respective ranges awaiting FOMC.
Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

Crude benchmarks pressured after seven consecutive sessions of upside and ahead of multiple days of broader macro risk events, with pressure potentially also emanating from the downbeat APAC tone.
Dutch TTF has trimmed initial upside and has reverted back to the sub-37.50/MWh trough, as participants continue to focus on Australian updates. Most recently, downside came alongside Offshore saying negotiations resulted in some concession on both sides.
Spot gold is flat with numerous technicals in close proximity, Palladium outperforms potentially on EU auto registration numbers while base peers have managed to lift off of initial lows.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -5.3mln (exp. -2.2mln), Gasoline +0.7mln (exp. +0.3mln), Distillate -0.3mln (exp. +0.2mln), Cushing -2.6mln.
Goldman Sachs raises its 12-month ahead Brent forecast to USD 100/bbl (prev. USD 93/bbl), expects modestly sharper inventory draws. Click here for more detail.
Chevron (CVX) says no agreement has been reached with unions following further consultation sessions held this week with the Fair Work Commission. Ongoing lack of agreement reinforces the view that there is “no reasonable prospect of an agreement between the parties”. Engaged in meaningful negotiations to finalise enterprise agreements with market competitive remuneration and conditions. However, unions continue to ask for terms significantly higher than the market.
Australia’s Offshore Alliance says negotiations before the commissioner were useful and resulted in some concessions on both sides; adds that members remain open to compromise but Chevron must table a viable offer.
China’s state planner NDRC to increase retail prices of gasoline and diesel by CNY 385/t and CNY 370/t respectively from September 21st.
Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the demand-supply imbalances in the US labour market have abated and that US growth needs to slow in line with potential due to full employment. Yellen also commented that there may be spillovers to the US from China’s economic difficulties but expects China to use its policy space to avoid a slowdown with major proportions, according to Reuters.
UAW President Fain is to make an announcement on Friday 10:00EDT/15:00BST. Ford (F) said it is developing contingency plans for further work stoppages in the US including shipping parts that keep Ford vehicles on the road, while Canada’s Unifor union reached a tentative agreement with Ford (F) and will prepare to present the unanimously endorsed agreement to members.
Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

ECB’s Schnabel says new supply-side shocks may pose upside risks to inflation; Dynamics in wage growth remain strong, while labour shortages persist; Energy shock threatens to leave permanent scars in the euro area. via a slide release
The Times’ Shadow MPC voted 7-2 in favour of a 25bps hike to the Bank Rate to “ensure inflation is finally under control”.
Swedish Finance Ministry says new spending in the 2024 budget totals SEK 39bln (exp. ~40bln); prioritising fighting inflation and supporting households/welfare.
Swiss Government Forecasts (SECO): downgrades 2023 CPI (2.2%), upgrades 2024 CPI (1.9%); upgrades 2023 GDP, downgrades 2024 GDP; says global economy likely to take longer to recover from challenges assumed in the June forecast. Click here for more detail.
UK PM Sunak has reportedly summoned his cabinet, according to Sun reporter Cole; “Looks like we may be hearing the new Net Zero plan today”.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA

UK CPI YY (Aug 2023) 6.7% vs. Exp. 7.0% (Prev. 6.8%); All Services CPI: 6.8% (prev. 7.4%); MM (Aug 2023) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. -0.4%)
UK Core CPI YY (Aug 2023) 6.2% vs. Exp. 6.8% (Prev. 6.9%); MM (Aug 2023) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.3%)
German Producer Prices YY (Aug 2023) -12.6% vs. Exp. -12.6% (Prev. -6.0%); MM (Aug 2023) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -1.1%)
UK ONS House Price Index (Jul) 0.6% Y/Y vs. Exp. 0.0% (prev. 1.9%)

GEOPOLITICS

Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and the US called for the completion of the demarcation of Kuwaiti-Iraqi maritime borders and urged Iraq to settle its internal legal status to ensure regulation of maritime in the Khor Abdallah Waterway, while they also urged Iran to fully cooperate with the IAEA, according to a joint statement.
Iranian President Raisi said Washington should prove its goodwill and determination for the revival of the 2015 nuclear pact, while he reportedly demanded that the US end its sanctions on Iran.
US military official says the joint military exercises with Armenia will begin today on time.
Ceasefire has reportedly been announced in Karabakh, according to Sputnik Armenia and Ifax; Karabakh Armenians to meet with Azeri authorities on September 21st, Ifax reports; Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister says Yerevan could theoretically live under Azerbaijan but dialogue is crucial.
Russia’s Kremlin says Russian President Putin is to meet China’s top diplomat Wang Yi.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin is under modest pressure but resides in particularly narrow parameters and is yet to meaningfully deviate away from the USD 27k handle pre-FOMC.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks were mostly lower with risk appetite dampened ahead of the incoming deluge of central bank policy announcements including the latest FOMC rate decision and dot plot projections.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by the commodity-related sectors including energy after oil prices eased back from YTD highs although losses were cushioned by resilience in consumer stocks.
Nikkei 225 gradually weakened after the latest trade data showed Japanese exports and imports remained in contraction territory, albeit not as bad as feared.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the subdued mood after the PBoC unsurprisingly maintained its benchmark 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates at 3.45% and 4.20%, respectively, while Country Garden’s dollar bondholders have been left in the dark regarding a coupon payment which was due on Monday although the developer still has a 30-day grace period.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep) 3.45% vs. Exp. 3.45% (Prev. 3.45%); 5Y (Sep) 4.20% vs. Exp. 4.20% (Prev. 4.20%)
PBoC official said China’s monetary policy still has ample policy room to respond to unexpected challenges and changes, while they will continue to implement prudent monetary policy and step up counter-cyclical adjustments. Furthermore, the PBoC will keep liquidity reasonably ample and enhance the stability of credit growth, according to Reuters.
NDRC Vice Chairman Cong Liang said China’s macroeconomic policies have been effective and that China’s economy faces a lot of difficulties and challenges, while he added that economic positives are increasing and those shorting China will surely be proven wrong.
US State Department said Climate Envoy Kerry met with Chinese Vice President Han and emphasised the need for China to raise ambition in efforts to accelerate decarbonisation and reduce emissions of methane, according to Reuters.
China exported zero germanium and gallium products in August which are materials key to the semiconductor industry, according to customs data.

DATA RECAP

Japanese Trade Balance Total (JPY)(Aug) -930.5B vs. Exp. -659.1B (Prev. -78.7B)
Japanese Exports YY (Aug) -0.8% vs. Exp. -1.7% (Prev. -0.3%); Imports YY (Aug) -17.8% vs. Exp. -19.4% (Prev. -13.5%)
New Zealand Current Account (Q2) -4.2B vs. Exp. -4.8B (Prev. -5.2B); Current Account/GDP -7.5% vs. Exp. -8.0% (Prev. -8.5%)

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

//NORTH KOREA/CHINA/RUSSIA

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN

3 CHINA /

CHINA/

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

EUROPE

Bloomberg reports it is getting harder to make a bull case for European stocks

(Bloomberg)

It’s Getting Hard To Make A Bull Case For Europe

WEDNESDAY, SEP 20, 2023 – 06:30 AM

By Sagarika Jaisinghani, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter

Interest rates appear to have plateaued and Chinese data is stabilizing, yet investors’ skepticism over Europe’s stuttering economy and equity market shows little sign of ebbing.

The Stoxx 600 index did benefit from the European Central Bank’s suggestion that it may be done hiking rates for now, and from China’s unexpectedly strong industrial production and retail sales figures. Those two drivers helped the index notch its best weekly performance in two months.

But the momentum has since fizzled. European shares tumbled more than 1% on Monday, erasing much of last week’s advance, as worries about higher-for-longer interest rates again gripped markets.

Evgenia Molotova is among those who remains unconvinced of Europe making a comeback. Molotova’s team at Pictet Asset Management remains “slightly overweight” US stocks and “slightly underweight” Europe. Nor is she tempted by the near-record price discount the European market offers relative to its transatlantic peer.

“Europe is almost always cheaper versus America,” says Molotova, who expects the US to outperform Europe in the last quarter of 2023. “Economic data in Europe was quite weak lately and industrials also seem to be more affected by weakness in China.”

Molotova has plenty of company. There has been a record rotation into US stocks, according to BofA’s September fund manager survey. And its latest flows figures, based on EPFR Global data, show European equity funds have endured 27 straight weeks of outflows, with total redemptions of over $46 billion so far this year.

One reason is what BofA calls the “avoid-China” theme — European shares rely heavily on sales to China. But the main factor is America’s economic resilience, with latest data showing a rise in factory production, as well as a drop in inflation expectations. While the US economy chugs along at a robust 2% rate, the euro area is barely growing.

European shares have returned less than 8% this year, half what the S&P 500 has notched. Yet even those gains have overshot the dire macro outlook, JPMorgan strategists reckon. Their analysis suggests that in the past five downturns, euro-zone stocks lost an average 30% versus the US in dollar terms. This year, since May, they have lagged just 14%.
That means another round of underperformance is likely should Europe’s services sector weaken further and bond yields slide, JPMorgan warns.

Such is the gloom about Europe’s economic prospects that even the more bullish forecasters are turning cautious. A July Bloomberg poll showed Goldman Sachs with one of the highest end-2023 targets for the Stoxx 600, but last Friday, the bank trimmed its 3-, 6- and 12-month forecasts, citing rising interest rates, higher energy costs and a sputtering Chinese economy.

Oddo’s head of equity strategy, Thomas Zlowodzki, also returned last week to “a positive stance” on the US versus Europe, reversing a view he held since July. “The US economy is looking more solid in the slowdown that is becoming more evident every day,” Zlowodzki says.

On the corporate results front too, analysts expect earnings to drop 2.1% in Europe and 0.3% in the US in 2023, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

Still, a few lonely Europe bulls remain. Citigroup strategists Mihir Tirodkar and Beata Manthey remain overweight Europe, as they reckon the market already reflects a “fairly pessimistic” corporate earnings outlook and will be able to absorb any further downgrades. In the US, they warn, the market’s expectations of profits leave “little room for error.”

end

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA

Rising ammunition prices are certainly interfering with Western plans to arm Ukraine

(Anzalone/Libertarian Institute)

Rising Ammunition Prices Could Interfere With Western Plans To Arm Ukraine

WEDNESDAY, SEP 20, 2023 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute,

A top NATO official warned that rising ammunition prices could mean that Western countries do not spend enough on the military to sufficiently arm Ukraine. Washington and its allies have pledged nearly $100 billion in weapons to Kiev since the Russian invasion last year.

On Saturday, the chair of NATO’s military committee, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer said alliance members need to spend more on defense to account for the rising prices. “Prices for equipment and ammunition are shooting up. Right now, we are paying more and more for exactly the same,” he said. “That means that we cannot make sure that the increased defense spending actually leads to more security.”

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the US has pledged over $43 billion in arms to Kiev. The increase in demand for arms has led to an increase in the stock prices of American weapons merchants.

Former Pentagon officials have warned that arms makers are exploiting the war in Ukraine to price gouge the Department of Defense. Shay Assad, who worked as a Pentagon contract negotiator for 40 years, told 60 Minutes that such firms overcharge the DoD for everything from “radar and missiles … helicopters … planes … submarines… down to the nuts and bolts.”

Atif Rashid, editor at Analyist News, observed, “In the weeks after Russia’s invasion, the market capitalization of Raytheon Technologies shot up to $155 billion from $128 billion at the start of the year. Lockheed Martin started 2022 worth $98 billion; by the end of year, it had reached $127 billion — its highest since records show.” He continued, “Northrop Grumman started the year on $61 billion and ended at $84 billion.”

However, Bauer instructed private investment funds and banks to support the arms industry’s effort to ramp up production. Washington is heavily subsidizing the arms industry to increase the rate of production for 155MM shells. The Pentagon is spending $1.5 billion in a year to ramp up the production of artillery rounds.

Still, the US is unable to produce the number of shells Ukraine needs. According to Pentagon Acquisition Chief Bill LaPlante, the weapons makers can produce 28,000 rounds per month, but Ukraine fires as many as 10,000 per day.

LaPlante says the arms industry is ahead of schedule and should be able to increase production to about 1.2 million rounds per year by 2025. However, that would still put the US well behind Russia, which is estimated to currently produce 2 million shells each year.

END

6.GLOBAL ISSUES AND VACCINE/COVID ISSUES

FDA has gone rogue again with its approval of the new COVID 19 booster shot according to Dr Robert Malone.

(Ozimek/EpochTimes)

FDA Has ‘Gone Rogue’ In Its Approval Of New COVID-19 Boosters: Dr. Robert Malone

TUESDAY, SEP 19, 2023 – 06:05 PM

Authored by Tom Ozimek and Joshua Philipp via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has “gone rogue,” according to virologist Dr. Robert Malone, who accused the federal agency of sacrificing its own rules and regulations with its decision to recommend the latest batch of COVID-19 boosters, which only have limited clinical trial data attesting to their efficacy and safety.Dr. Robert Malone, inventor of mRNA vaccines, speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas at the Hilton Anatole on Aug. 5, 2022. (Bobby Sanchez for The Epoch Times)

Dr. Malone made the remarks in an interview with EpochTV’s “Crossroads” program on Sept. 11, the day that the FDA cleared new COVID-19 vaccines in a bid to counter the waning effectiveness of the currently available shots.

“It’s difficult to conclude anything other than the FDA is no longer feeling bound by their own rules and regulations,” Dr. Malone said. “The term is—they’ve gone rogue.”

Dr. Malone said the lack of human clinical trial data demonstrating effectiveness and safety of the updated vaccines should have precluded their approval by the FDA.

He said that, essentially, the FDA authorized the new vaccines on the premise that “neutralizing antibodies as detected in mice and their cross-reactivity are correlative protection,” which he said “is a lie, there are no established correlates of protection for SARS-CoV-2.”

FDA officials didn’t respond by press time to a request by The Epoch Times for comment.

The agency cleared Moderna’s and Pfizer’s newest mRNA vaccines on Sept. 11 without analyzing data from any human trials.

In a statement announcing its approval, the FDA said that the decision was supported by its evaluation of “manufacturing data” from vaccine producers and “non-clinical immune response data on the updated formulations including the XBB.1.5 component.”

The benefit-risk profile of earlier versions of the vaccines is “well understood,” the FDA claimed, adding that the similar manufacturing process for the updated vaccines “suggests that the vaccines are a good match for protecting against the currently circulating COVID-19 variants.”

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) followed with its own recommendation on Sept. 12, urging nearly all Americans to get the new vaccines. The shots will be available to children as young as 6 months old this month.

The new vaccines target XBB.1.5, a sub-type of the Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes the disease COVID-19. However, the XBB.1.5. subvariant has already largely been displaced by newer strains of the quickly evolving virus, including EG.5, according to the CDC.

While FDA documents show the agency did not include any trial data in its review of the new shots, data from a Moderna trial was considered by the CDC before it issued its recommendation. The trial featured just 50 people receiving a new shot, and found the vaccine induced levels of neutralizing antibodies that authorities said would protect against COVID-19. One of the 50 people suffered a vaccine-related adverse reaction.Florida Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo in Tampa, Fla., on Oct. 15, 2022. (York Du/The Epoch Times)

‘Lot of Red Flags’

“There’s essentially no data,” Florida Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo said at a recent news conference, where he suggested that people might be better off passing on the new round of shots.

“Not only that, but there are a lot of red flags,” Dr. Ladapo added, while pointing to studies finding that the effectiveness of the vaccines turns negative over time.

“There’s been no clinical trial done in human beings showing that it benefits people, there’s been no clinical trial showing that it is a safe product for people.”

He also noted that studies have linked previous versions of the COVID-19 vaccine to cardiac problems such as heart inflammation.

“It’s truly irresponsible for FDA, CDC, and others to be championing something … when we don’t know the implications of it,” Dr. Ladapo said.

Asked to comment on Dr. Ladopo’s remarks, Dr. Malone pointed to a growing body of studies that show negative vaccine effectiveness, which he said suggests that, in the risk-benefit analysis, “there’s no discernible benefit, or there’s negative benefit, but there’s clearly risk.”

‘Most Americans Take Them’

While acknowledging the current vaccines’ waning effectiveness, CDC Director Mandy Cohen penned an op-ed in The New York Times on Sept. 13, in which she called the updated COVID-19 vaccines “one of the most effective tools in combating the virus.”

“Covid-19 vaccines are the best way to give the body the ability to keep the virus from causing significant harm. Extensive studies and real-world experience have shown that they are safe and they work,” she wrote. “And most Americans take them.”

Dr. Cohen said the vaccines were put through extensive clinical trials before they were introduced in 2021 and “since then, their safety has been intensely monitored.”

She didn’t address criticism, such as the little trial data that’s been made available.

Former NZ PM Ardern Urges United Nations To ‘Crack Down On Free Speech As A Weapon Of War’

WEDNESDAY, SEP 20, 2023 – 10:45 AM

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Jacinda Ardern may no longer be Prime Minister of New Zealand, but she was back at the United Nations continuing her call for international censorship.

Ardern is now one of the leading anti-free speech figures in the world and continues to draw support from political and academic establishments

In her latest attack on free speech, Ardern declared free speech as a virtual weapon of war.

She is demanding that the world join her in battling free speech as part of its own war against “misinformation” and “disinformation.”

Her views, of course, were not only enthusiastically embraced by authoritarian countries, but the government and academic elite.

In her speech, she notes that we cannot allow free speech to get into the way of fighting things like climate change. She notes that they cannot win the war on climate change if people do not believe them about the underlying problem. The solution is to silence those with opposing views. It is that simple.

While some of us have denounced her views as an attack on free expression, Harvard rushed to give her not one but two fellowships.

While the free speech community denounced her for unrelenting attacks on this human right, Harvard praised her for “strong and empathetic political leadership” and specifically enlisted her to help “improve content standards and platform accountability for extremist content online.”

I actually have no objection to the inclusion of Ardern as a Harvard fellow. She is a former world leader who is leading the movement against free speech. It is a view that students should consider in looking at these controversies.

However, Harvard has heralded her views with no acknowledgment of her extreme antagonism toward free speech principles.

There is also little countervailing balance at the school with fellows supporting free speech as a human right. Rather, Harvard (which ranks dead last on the recent free speech survey) has become a virtual clearinghouse for anti-free speech academics and advocates.

Free speech is now commonly treated on campuses as harmful.

Rather than the right that defines us, it is treated as an existential threat.

What is so chilling is to hear Ardern express her fealty to free speech as she calls on the nations of the world to severely curtail it to prevent people from undermining their policies and priorities.

She remains the “empathetic” face of raw censorship and intolerance. She is now the virtual ambassador-at-large for global speech criminalization.

end

DR PAUL ALEXANDER.

Dr. Mike Yeadon Comments on ” Ursula von der Leyen: “We Vaccinated a Continent!” by Robert Kogon”…This was all long planned and coldly deliberate…These don’t look to me as the acts of rational

people but truly evil psychopaths..” ‘hundreds of millions of people have been subjected to…intentionally harmful materials’ see substack by LIONESS OF JUDAH MINISTRY

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERSEP 19

READ IN APP

‘By Dr. Michael Yeadon September 18, 2023

I highly recommend that you take the time to read what I consider is a very important article by Robert Kogon.

The head of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, brags about having “vaccinated a continent”, with materials not fit to inject into anyone, let alone an entire continent

The contract with the supplier, Pfizer, shows that for all the hype – lies – about social responsibility to get jabbed, to save grandma, the contract clearly shows that the supplier did not know nor made any claims to reduce transmission (not that, in my opinion, there ever was anything to transmit).

Pfizer also stated in terms that the longer term side effect risks were unknown, obviously, since they had no data beyond a few weeks.

Despite all that, hundreds of millions of people have been subjected to what I am sure, as a veteran of biopharmaceutical research, are intentionally harmful materials, designed to trigger potentially fatal autoimmune attacks inside anyone who received them, to accumulate in ovaries and impact fertility, these being known consequences from selection of the formulation that they chose (lipid nanoparticles).

I was also disturbed to see Ursula Von der Leyen brag that they’d helped bring about a “health union”. I’m sure you remember voting for that.

This unredacted contract, had it been available to MEPs, let alone the public, at the time of acquisition of these poisons, would have been the smoking gun to the huge crime that has been committed and continues to this day.

It’s the same all over the world. Mistakes Were Not Made.

This was all long planned and coldly deliberate. It cannot be interpreted as a financial crime, “to sell lots of pharmaceutical products”.

Sure, that happened. But the manifestations of the assault upon the people of the world extends far beyond money, and includes numerous known and foreseeable injuries, some permanent and thus correctly characterised as maiming, and many deaths, also extending outwards now years beyond their administration.

Anyone looking for a word to tie together the military grade PsyOp of fear, the mistreatments in hospitals, care homes and the community, accompanied by a steady dismantling of the infrastructure of modern, civilised existence, would struggle to find a better one than evil.

These don’t look to me as the acts of rational people but truly evil psychopaths. Fight them.

Best wishes,

Mike

end

Dr. James A. Thorp’s medical practice over the last 43 years. He has spoken out against using the “vaccines” in pregnancy; chronicles the devastating data observed with the use of the COVID-19

“vaccines” in pregnancy, explaining the alarming potential for both immediate harm to the fetus as well as potential harm to future generations

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERSEP 20

READ IN APP

Experimental, Untested Genetic Biotechnology Administered in Pregnancy: An Egregious Breach of Bioethics

FREEDOM IN TRUTH substack, support!

Increase in menstrual abnormalities increased by 1192-fold

Increase in miscarriage (spontaneous abortion) by 75-fold

Increase in fetal malformation by 20-fold

Increase in fetal cardiac disease by 16-fold

Increase in fetal growth restriction by 25-fold

Increase in oligohydramnios (low amniotic fluid) by 16-fold

Increase in preeclampsia by 24-fold

Increase in Fetal death by 38-fold

Freedom In Truth

Experimental, Untested Genetic Biotechnology Administered in Pregnancy: An Egregious Breach of Bioethics

Originally posted on America Out Loud. As the humanitarian disaster known as the COVID-19 “vaccines” tragically unfolds across the globe, ethical concerns about the use of such untested genetic biotechnology in pregnancy intensify. One board-certified Maternal-Fetal Medicine doctor has warned over the last two years that use of these novel, and experime…

Read more

end

Ursula von der Leyen: “We Vaccinated a Continent!”

Further proof of the world’s governments deliberately lying to the public while hiding the truth in plain sight

“The Long Term Effects and Efficacy of the Vaccines Are Not Currently Known” – The Purchase Agreement Between the EU Commission and Pfizer

LIONESS OF JUDAH MINISTRY

AUGUST 14, 2022’

“The Long Term Effects and Efficacy of the Vaccines Are Not Currently Known” – The Purchase Agreement Between the EU Commission and Pfizer

end

BOOM! John Cusack Slams Democratic Party Elites: ‘Dems Have Sold Out the Working Class for Decades’; now John has got my admiration here; ‘“This is what liberals/neoliberals have never understood –

or taken responsibility for – that they have played a major part in creating the precise conditions for fascism to flourish,” Cusack

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERSEP 20

NEWS ADDICTS

Military Whistleblower Exposes Huge Heart Failure Spike in Vaxxed Personnel A US military whistleblower has warned the American people about a huge spike in cases of heart failure among service members who have received mRNA injections for Covid.READ THE FULL REPORT

London Mayor Signs WEF ‘Climate Pact’ to Ban Meat & Private Car Ownership London’s far-left Mayor Sadiq Khan has just signed the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) radical “climate pact” to ban meat and dairy consumption, air travel, and private car ownership in the British capital city.READ THE FULL REPORT

Lauren Boebert Breaks Up with Democrat Who Groped Her at Musical Rep. Lauren Boebert has ended her relationship with the individual caught “groping her” during a playful outing at a Colorado theater where they were attending a family-friendly performance of “Beetlejuice.” The self-described “eccentric” politician returned to Washington D.C. on Monday and informed TMZ that there will be no more “future date nights” between her and Quinn Gallagher, the bar owner. …READ THE FULL REPORT

American Woman Taken Hostage by the Taliban for ‘Promoting Christianity’An American individual has been seized and is currently held hostage by the Taliban after the group attacked the premises of a Swiss nonprofit organization operating in Afghanistan. The Taliban accused the organization of promoting Christianity. The International Assistance Mission (IAM) verified on Friday that the American staff member and 18 others were taken into custody by the extremist faction …READ THE FULL REPORT

Prominent Democrats Pressure Attorney General to Eliminate Trump From the 2024 Primary Ballot California State Assemblymember Evan Low, a Democrat representing Silicon Valley, is spearheading an effort with fellow Democrats to request that California Attorney General Rob Bonta seek a court order to remove former President Donald Trump from the 2024 primary election ballot.READ THE FULL REPORT

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News

Renowned Biochemist Testifies: Covid Shots Are Spiked with DNA A renowned biochemist has testified before the South Carolina Senate that he has uncovered evidence showing that every dose of Pfizer’s mRNA Covid vaccine is spiked with billions of pieces of DNA.READ MORE

NBC Drops Bombshell: Joe Biden Is Worried He Might Die hefore Hunter’s Legal Issues Are Resolved NBC News is reporting that President Joe Biden is afraid that he will die before his son Hunter’s legal issues are resolved.READ MORE

Phoenix Mayor Moves to Enforce WEF’s Ban on Meat, Dairy, Private Car Ownership The Democrat mayor of Phoenix, Arizona, Kate Gallego, has taken steps toward enforcing the globalist agenda of the World Economic Forum (WEF) by moving to ban meat and dairy consumption and private car ownership in an effort to meet the radical claim goals of the green agenda.READ MORE

Biden’s House Impeachment Inquiry Hearings to Begin Next Thursday Democrat President Joe Biden’s first impeachment inquiry hearing will be held in the U.S. House next Thursday, according to reports.READ MORE

Matt Gaetz Overrules Kevin McCarthy: ‘After Eight Months of Inaction, I Have Drafted a Subpoena to Hunter Biden’GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz has overruled Kevin McCarthy and took it upon himself to do what the speaker has failed to do for eight months.READ MORE

Chicago Dems Revolt Against Joe Biden Over Immigration: “Why can’t we close the borders of Chicago, can we say no we won’t take anymore”Chicago Democrats who voted for President Joe Biden by a huge percentage are revolting and demanding that city leaders ‘close the borders of Chicago to stop the influx of illegal migrants. Migrants are not eligible for asylum if they are just coming here for work, which is what the majority admit when asked. A resident got a huge ovation at …READ MORE

George Soros Paid TikTok Stars to Push Pro-Biden Propaganda onto Young People Leftist billionaire George Soros has been paying TikTok stars to propaganda in support of President Joe Biden onto young people, according to a new report.READ MORE

NYC Moves to Create ‘Reparations Task Force’ despite Major Budget Cuts amid Migrant Crisis New York City is considering plans to plow huge sums of taxpayer money into a series of measures that will, among other things, create a “reparations task force.”READ MORE

Biden Moves to Block Trump’s Plan to ‘Fire’ the ‘Deep State’ and ‘Drain the Swamp’President Donald Trump recently pledged that he would move to “fire the bureaucrats and drain the swamp” after winning the 2024 election.READ MORE

Democrat Congresswoman Announces Retirement after Rare Neurological Disorder Diagnosis Democrat Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-VA) has announced she will be retiring from Congress after being diagnosed with a rare neurological disorder.READ MORE

Hunter Biden Sues IRS for ‘Targeted’ Investigation, Claims Agents ‘Sought to Embarrass’ Him Democrat President Joe Biden’s son Hunter has filed a lawsuit against the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) over claims the federal agency “sought to embarrass” him while investigating his tax crimes.READ MORE

Ted Cruz: Democrats Will ‘Jettison’ Biden, ‘Parachute in Michelle Obama’ for 2024 Republican Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) has predicted that Democrats will “jettison” President Joe Biden for the critical 2024 election.READ MORE

California Sues Big Oil for ‘Lying about Climate Change’The State of California has filed a lawsuit against America’s largest gas and oil companies for allegedly “wreaking havoc on our planet.”READ MORE

EVOL NEWS

CSU player, family get death threats after hitREAD MORE…

LATEST NEWS:

London Mayor Signs WEF ‘Climate Pact’ to Ban Meat & Private Car OwnershipRead more…After Federal Court Cripples Biden Scheme – Supreme Court Faces Critical DecisionRead more…NATO Chief Jens Stoltenberg Warns — ‘West Needs To Prepare for a Long War in Ukraine’Read more…Trump skipping second GOP debate to give competing speech in DetroitRead more…JUST IN: Key Trump Official Takes Legal Action Against DOJRead more…‘Daily Show’ Comedian Admits He Fabricated Jokes/Stories About Experiencing RacismRead more…Ted Cruz: Democrats Will ‘Jettison’ Biden, ‘Parachute in Michelle Obama’ in for 2024Read more…Lauren Boebert says Beetlejuice guy is NOT getting a second dateRead more…

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

September Siesta

WEDNESDAY, SEP 20, 2023 – 09:10 AM

By Philip Marey, Senior US Strategist at Rabobank

In the US House of Representatives, Republicans can’t seem to agree on a continuing resolution to keep the government funded beyond September 30. Failure to pass this stopgap measure would lead to a government shutdown on October 1. The continuing resolution is needed because the necessary appropriations bills for fiscal year 2024 (which starts on October 1) have not yet been approved in the House. Sunday’ s proposal by the Freedom Caucus and the Main Street Caucus of the House Republicans is unacceptable to the Democrats because of spending cuts attached to the continuing resolution, so passage depends on Republicans who have a narrow 221-212 majority. However, even some members of the Freedom Caucus oppose the bill, so it is still unclear whether this proposal will be adopted. Consequently, some Republicans are now raising the possibility of making a temporary deal with the House Democrats.

Meanwhile, in the real world, US housing starts saw a steep decline in August (-11.3%), extending the downward trend since April. On the bright side, building permits grew by 6.9%, but they have been zigzagging this year. The interest-rate sensitive housing market has been a casualty of the Fed’s hiking cycle from the start. Given the Fed’s focus on fighting inflation, a sustained recovery of the housing market should not be expected anytime soon

Day ahead

This morning, UK inflation data were weaker than expected with a 0.3% month-on-month increase in the price level in August (against 0.7% expected), leading to 6.7% year-on-year, not only below the expected 7.0%, but even lower than July’s 6.8%. So even headline inflation unexpectedly continues to fall. Meanwhile, core CPI inflation fell to 6.2% from 6.9%. The largest downward contributions to the monthly change in CPI annual rates came from food, where prices rose by less in August 2023 than a year ago, and accommodation services, where prices can be volatile and fell in August 2023.

Today, the FOMC will conclude its two-day meeting with a policy rate decision, fresh economic projections and a press conference by Powell. As explained in our FOMC Preview, we expect the FOMC to remain on hold in September because of the gradual decline in core inflation and the improving balance in the labor market.

The formal statement is likely to repeat that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace, but we may see some acknowledgement that the labor market is softening. For example, according to the Beige Book “job growth was subdued.”

Regarding monetary policy, the FOMC is likely to repeat that “In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments” and that “The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate.”

At the press conference, Powell is likely to repeat his Jackson Hole performance, stressing that the FOMC remains data-dependent, but underlining the upside risks to the outlook and the Fed’s willingness to act if warranted by the incoming data. We also expect him to continue his battle against expectations of an early pivot.

The new economic projections, featuring the dot plot, are likely to imply another 25 bps hike before the end of the year, similar to the June dot plot. This would underline the Fed’s willingness to deliver another 25 bps hike before the end of the year if warranted by the incoming data. Meanwhile, the projections will be extended through 2026.

However, we still expect the economic data to deteriorate before the November meeting and avert additional rate hikes. In fact, we expect the US to slip into a recession in the final quarter of the year. Although a soft landing is possible, we find it less likely. The Fed has no reliable model to forecast inflation (remember they initially thought that the current episode of inflation was transitory and did not warrant a monetary policy response), and at Jackson Hole Powell admitted there is considerable uncertainty regarding the lags of the impact of monetary policy and the precise level of monetary policy restraint (for a given level of the federal funds rate). Therefore, we think it will be very difficult for the Fed to engineer a soft landing. If they succeed, it will probably be luck

end

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

Crude inventories are down 42% and that will push oil to greater than 100 dollars per barrel

(zerohedge)

With Cushing Hitting “Tank Bottoms” Goldman Hikes Oil Price Target To $100

WEDNESDAY, SEP 20, 2023 – 10:16 AM

After tagging $96 yesterday, Brent’s torrid rally hit the pause button overnight, which – as Bloomberg’s Jake Lloyd-Smith writes – makes sense given the extremely stretched RSIs and pre-FOMC caution. Still, the next signal of the fast-tightening physical market may be just around the corner, potentially buttressing the case that any reversal in crude prices will be temporary (a topic we first touched upon yesterday in “Strong Tailwinds Could See Oil Become Even More Overbought“).

As a reminder, Wednesday brings the DOE’s weekly stockpile breakdown, a key window into what’s happening in tank farms across the world’s largest economy. Well, as we noted last night, the latest API estimates suggested that there will be a further drawdown in nationwide crude holdings, including a drop at the vital storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma.

This matters because as Lloyd-Smith notes, crude inventories at that site have collapsed by 42% so far this quarter, putting them on pace for a record decline! They were last down to about 25 million barrels after falling in 10 of the past 11 weeks…

overnight Goldman – which after repeatedly slashing its oil price target for much of the past two quarters (despite having turned commodity supercycle two years ago, a flip that probably cost Jeff Currie his job) after being wrong in expecting oil to soar in the first half – realized that it is once again badly behind the curve after oil’s 30% rally in the past three months, and the bank’s commodity strategists hiked the12-month Brent price target from $93 to $100, rejoining the triple digit club as worldwide demand hits unprecedented levels and OPEC+ supply curbs continue to tighten the market.

Of course, any time Goldman turns bullish, prices of the referenced asset mysteriously tumble, although in this particular case the fundamentals may be just too powerful to fade Goldman.

According to Goldman, the key reason for the hike is that significantly lower OPEC supply and higher demand more than offset significantly higher US supply, largely verbatim what we said two weeks ago in “Oil To Hit $107 As Deficit Approaches 3 Million Barrels Per Day.”

As GS commodity strategist Daan Struyven writes, “overall, we believe that OPEC will be able to sustain Brent in an $80-$105 range in 2024 by leveraging robust Asia-centric global demand growth (1.8mb/d) and by exercising its pricing power assertively.“

Extending our oil deficit analysis from two weeks ago, the bank then predicts that the market will have a deficit estimated at 2 million barrels a day this quarter, followed by a shortfall of 1.1 million barrels a day in the final three months of 2023..

… thanks to record global consumption.

Yet at the same time as it is turned bullish (again), Goldman appears to have learned from its recent mistakes and is no longer projecting oil “mooning” but instead believes that “most of the rally is behind us, and that Brent is unlikely to sustainably exceed $105/bbl next year” which of course is the best possible outcome in a world which is already sliding into stagflation. Goldman lists the following 3 factors for why it expects oil to remain rangebound between $80 and $105:

First, while US supply is more capital disciplined than a decade ago, the upward trend in capex and supply beats over the past three years, and the recent inflection in rigs confirms its dynamism.
Second, high spare capacity and the return to growth in offshore projects limit the upside to long-dated oil prices.
Third, OPEC is unlikely to push prices to extreme levels, which would destroy its long-term residual demand.

Below we excerpt some more details from the report (full note available to pro subscribers in the usual place).

We now assume Saudi Arabia unwinds the extra 1mb/d cut gradually starting in 2024Q2, but that the 1.7mb/d cut with 8 other OPEC+ countries remains fully in place next year. The 900kb/d downgrade to our 2024 average OPEC supply forecast reflects three factors. First, Saudi Arabia appears determined to lower inventories. Second, keeping the group cut would likely support Saudi oil revenues in 2024. Third, recent US supply beats on easing supply constraints and efficiency gains lower the call on OPEC.

We believe that most of the rally is behind us, and that Brent is unlikely to sustainably exceed $105/bbl next year. First, while US supply is more capital disciplined than a decade ago, the upward trend in capex and supply beats over the past three years, and the recent inflection in rigs confirms its dynamism. Second, high spare capacity and the return to growth in offshore projects limit the upside to long-dated oil prices. Third, OPEC is unlikely to push prices to extreme levels, which would destroy its long-term residual demand.

We also believe that Brent is unlikely to sustainably drop below $80/bbl next year because of the strong OPEC put. Moreover, Western energy policy now has less room left to fight high prices given declines in the SPR and in Iran spare capacity. Third, we remain on track for a soft landing despite the oil rally.

Fast-forwarding to Goldman’s trade reco, the bank writes that “based on our constructive outlook for oil prices and bearish view on volatility, we conclude by taking profit on two trade recommendations, and launching a new restructured trade.”

We have previously recommended clients position for higher Brent prices and lower volatility via long call spreads and being short a strangle. While this trade had performed well, we now believe that further declines in OECD stocks are needed before OPEC barrels are brought back to market, and we now view OPEC to be optimizing for higher prices than before. As such, we take profit on our original recommendation, closing the trade at $0.65/bbl, for $0.67/bbl profit.

However, we now restructure the trade for a higher range. We now recommend clients go long a $90-95/bbl Brent call spread and short a $80/$100 Brent strangle on the Jun-24 contracts. This strategy raises c.$6/bbl upfront, with a max payoff of $15/bbl, and stands to profit if the contract expires in a $75-110/bbl range. It sells volatility on net to benefit from the recent increase in implied volatility, and exploits the backwardation and contango at the front of the Brent futures curve and Brent volatility surface, respectively. Ample spare capacity and loosening constraints to US shale should both act to bring breakevens back towards their pre-pandemic range, in our view.

Meanwhile, we hold onto our Long Dec-24 Brent trading recommendation (initiated Sep-22; current profit $11.62/bbl) as we still see upside to current forwards. However, we take profit on our short $60/bbl Dec-24 Brent put trade (initiated Dec-22; current profit $5.10/bbl), given limited potential for further gains.

More in the full note available to pro subs.

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

CANADA/INDIA

INTERESTING: Trudeau’s plane was delayed for 90 minutes in India after leaving G20. Did Indian authorities find drugs? And now Trudeau does a tit for tat accusing the Indian government of complicity in the assassination of a Canadian Sikh?

(zerohedge)

India Rejects Trudeau’s “Absurd” Accusations It Assassinated Canadian Citizen, Expels Diplomat In Tit-For-Tat

TUESDAY, SEP 19, 2023 – 05:45 PM

India is remaining defiant and has refused to acknowledge Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s shock accusation that Indian intelligence assassinated a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil. Trudeau on Monday told lawmakers there is “credible” intelligence pointing to “agents of the government of India” as being behind the June murder of a prominent Sikh leader named Hardeep Singh Nijjar near Vancouver – shot dead outside a Sikh temple in Surrey, British Columbia. He was a prominent leader in the Sikh Khalistan independence movement, and thus the Indian government labeled him a “terrorist”.

Canada on Monday expelled an Indian diplomat who is a known intelligence official, but on Tuesday India in tit-for-tat fashion expelled a senior Canadian diplomat from its territory. India’s Ministry of External Affairs cited Canadian “interference” in India’s sovereign matters. “The decision reflects Government of India’s growing concern at the interference of Canadian diplomats in our internal matters and their involvement in anti-India activities,” the ministry said in a statement.Unhappy meeting at the G20, via OpIndia

The Indian government has condemned and rejected allegations, calling them “absurd” and politically motivated. Further, New Delhi has suggested Canadian officials are running cover for ‘terrorists’ that are engaged in Sikh separatist activities. Canada has a huge Indian and Sikh population.

All of this reflects the already long simmering tensions between the two countries:

A number of individuals designated as terrorists by India’s National Investigative Agency continue to call for India’s break-up in Canada. Since 2020, self-proclaimed “referendums” that call for the break-up of the Indian state of Punjab from the Union of India have been occurring despite India asserting strong diplomatic offences.

“The inaction of the Canadian Government on this matter has been a long-standing and continuing concern,” India’s foreign ministry said.

Trudeau had in his televised announcement before the House of Commons asserted that “Any involvement of a foreign government in the killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil is an unacceptable violation of our sovereignty.” Some pro-Indian commentators and media are questioning whether Nijjar is a Canadian citizen at all.

Here’s more of the full Indian statement responding to Trudeau:

“We have seen and reject the statement of the Canadian Prime Minister in their Parliament, as also the statement by their Foreign Minister. Allegations of Government of India’s involvement in any act of violence in Canada are absurd and motivated,” India’s foreign ministry said.

“Similar allegations were made by the Canadian Prime Minister to our Prime Minister, and were completely rejected,” the Indian foreign ministry added. Canadian PM Trudeau told his country’s parliament that he had taken up the purported matter of alleged Indian hand in Hardeep Singh Nijjar’s killing “directly” with his Indian counterpart during the G20 summit in Delhi earlier this month.

Indeed Trudeau had told parliament that he had directly informed PM Modi of his intelligence service’s findings related to Nijjar’s murder.

But given India has focused much of its angry reaction on denouncing the Canadian government for being ‘weak’ on terrorism, it’s increasingly looking like Indian intelligence was indeed likely behind or at least had knowledge of the assassination. After all, Nijjar was a top wanted man in India, and there was even a reward for his apprehension.

“That Canadian political figures have openly expressed sympathy for such elements remains a matter of deep concern,” India’s foreign ministry continued. “The space given in Canada to a range of illegal activities, including murders, human trafficking and organised crime is not new. We reject any attempts to connect the Government of India to such developments. We urge the Government of Canada to take prompt and effective legal action against all anti-India elements operating from their soil.”Hardeep Singh Nijjar

This sheds some light on negative events which happened at the end of Trudeau’s G20 trip, as Reuters recounts:

Trudeau was seen as the most snubbed leader during the G20 summit in Delhi, away from media’s attention and geo-economic significance, as he chose to skip official dinners and made it a point to attend the formal business of the summit only. As Trudeau was to leave Delhi, his official plane developed a technical malfunction and he had to stay back in India for nearly two days, and denied the Indian offer to take the service of an Indian Air India One plane instead.

The stunning and unprecedented moment of such a severe accusation as a political assassination on foreign soil, and the tit-for-tat expelling of diplomats is likely to send already tension-filled India-Canadian ties falling off a cliff.

There’s also the possibility the whole row could push India further away from the West when it comes to the Ukraine war, and into closer trade and economic cooperation with Russia and China.

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS

EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0703 UP 0.0021

USA/ YEN 147.91 UP 0.142 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2363 DOWN 0.0030

USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3427 DOWN .0016 (CDN DOLLAR UP 16 BASIS PTS)

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 16,39 PTS OR 0.52%

Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 111,57 PTS OR 0.62%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN.45% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 111.57 PTS OR 0.62%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 16.39 PTS OR 0.52%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.45%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 218.81 PTS OR .66%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1931.00

silver:$23.28

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 104.68 DOWN 15 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.

WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.448% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.708% UP 0 AND 2//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.763 DOWN 3 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.368 DOWN 5 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7125 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0718 UP 0.0037 or 37 basis points

USA/Japan: 147.69 DOWN .071 OR YEN UP 7 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2400 UP 0.0008 OR 8 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0028 OR 28 BASIS pts to 1.3409

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.2879

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2927)

TURKISH LIRA: 27.04 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.708…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.329% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 4.401 DOWN 1 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.067 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.

Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED UP 71.45 POINTS or 0.93%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 117,11 PTS OR 0.75%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 48,67 PTS OR 0.67%

Spain IBEX UP 118.60 PTS OR 1.24%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 471,67 PTS OR 1.64%

WTI Oil price 90.92 12: EST

Brent Oil: 94.33 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 96.28; ROUBLE UP 0 AND 53//100

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.7125 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.2850 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0669 DOWN 0.0012 OR 12 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2349 DOWN .0043 or 43 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.2495% DOWN 15 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .711%

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148.03 UP .278 //YEN DOWN 28 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3467 UP .0023 CDN dollar DOWN 23 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 90.27

Brent OIL: 93.24

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 4.393%

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS PTS to 4.405%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 4 PTS AT 5.146 %

USA dollar index: 104.96 UP 12 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.02 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 96,14 DOWN 0 AND 69/100 roubles

GOLD 1935.50

SILVER: 23.33

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 76,98 PTS OR 0.22%

NASDAQ DOWN 221.31 PTS OR 1.46%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.75 UP 0.64 PTS (4.54)%

GLD: $179.35 UP .13 OR 0.073%

SLV/ $21.34 UP 0.07 OR 0.33%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Stocks & Bonds Slammed As Powell Pi$$es In Next Year’s Punchbowl

WEDNESDAY, SEP 20, 2023 – 04:01 PM

If you’re not confused now, you weren’t paying attention.

Fed held rates unchanged (as expected) – neutral.
Fed increased its growth expectation, lowered its unemployment expectation, and increased its inflation outlook – dovish/soft-landing.
Fed erased 50bps of cuts expected for next year in its dot-plot – hawkish as hell.

That sent STIRs hawkishly higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Mohamed El-Erian offered the most succinct summary of the malaise many were left in after the statement, the SEP, and the press conference:

“I worry that the economic and policy signals coming out of this Federal Reserve press conference may come across to many as both confused and confusing.

Some will deem this an inevitable consequence of this phase of the inflation and policy cycle; others will view it as further evidence of challenged Fed communication.”

And the Dot-Plot crushed expectations for cuts next year…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed on the day – and very volatile – with the short-end dramatically underperforming. 2Y ended up 6bps while 30Y was down 3bps on the day. On the week, the long-end is lower but the short-end is significantly higher…

Source: Bloomberg

The pattern was similar for all bonds (except the 30Y) with early gains (erasing yesterday’s losses) quickly being eviscerated on the Fed’s SEP.

Source: Bloomberg

10Y yield broke out from the August highs late in the day to their highest since Oct 2007…

Source: Bloomberg

And 2Y yields soared to a new high since July 2006…

Source: Bloomberg

All of which crushed the yield curve (2s30s)…

Source: Bloomberg

Equities did what equities do around the FOMC. The kneejerk move was lower (hawkish SEP), but the second Powell started speaking the algos ripped the market back up to unch… but this time, they could not hold it and stocks tanked to the lows of the day, extending losses after Powell stopped speaking. Nasdaq (longest duration stocks) suffered most…

Gamma-heavy 4500 was key resistance for the S&P 500…

0-DTE selling was dominant after The Fed but we note that the S&P fell down to exactly match its Put Wall level…

Source: SpotGamma

‘Most Shorted’ Stocks puked hard today with no bounce at all…

Source: Bloomberg

CART was carried out today, plunging all the way back to its IPO price…

The dollar dumped overnight into The Fed statement then exploded higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ended lower, falling back below $27000 as stocks tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold (spot) rallied up to near $1950 intraday before fading as the dollar spiked after The Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices managed gains on the inventory data but The Fed’s hawkishness dragged WTI back below $90…

Finally, with Powell and his pals pissing in the punchbowl of rate-cuts for next year, one has to wonder just how long this chasm between real rates and equity valuations can remain…

Source: Bloomberg

…and real rates are getting higher.

FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged, Signals Much More Hawkish 2024

Rates Unchanged, Signals Much More Hawkish 2024

WEDNESDAY, SEP 20, 2023 – 02:00 PM

Since the last FOMC statement and press conference (on July 26th), the dollar has soared but bitcoin and bonds have been battered lower in price (with gold and stocks basically unch)…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, spot gold is exactly back up to the spike-lows of the July FOMC day..

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, The Fed’s jawboning of “higher for longer” is increasingly being accepted by the rates market as the SOFR spreads for Dec 2023-2024 and 2023-2025 have surged since the last FOMC…

Source: Bloomberg

In fact the real shift started in September (as 2023 rate-hike exp faded and 2024 rate-cut exp were reduced)…

Source: Bloomberg

Of some note, we have seen financial conditions tighten significantly since the last FOMC (while at the same time, macro surprise data has disappointed)…

Source: Bloomberg

And so, while the world is sure that The Fed will remain on ‘pause’ today, all eyes are on the Dot-Plot for signals of just how ‘higher for longer’ they will be and for Powell’s tone during the presser with consensus expecting the FOMC will reiterate its ‘date-dependence’ but retaining a tightening bias while removing one rate-cut from 2024’s dots.

For context, since the last FOMC, the market has shifted hawkishly (red arrows) up towards The Fed’s prior Dot-Plot, but remains more dovish (green ovals) than The Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

And so, what did we get?

The fed left rates unchanged – as expected – but the dots were significantly more hawkish, slashing two cuts from 2024 dot-plot:

*FED: 12 OFFICIALS SEE ONE MORE HIKE THIS YEAR, 7 SEE ON HOLD
*FED ’23 MEDIAN RATE FORECAST STAYS AT 5.6%; ’24 RISES TO 5.1%

One Fed member is projecting a 6.125% End 2024 rate…

Developing…

There were virtually no changes to the statement:

TUCKER CARLSON..

END

end

II USA DATA

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

Are these Cape Cod residents practicing NIMBY?

(zerohedge)

Cape Cod Residents Outraged At Democratic Governor’s Migrant Housing Plan

TUESDAY, SEP 19, 2023 – 11:45 PM

Earlier this month, Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey declared a state of emergency in response to the surging number of migrants in state-managed shelters. Then, last week, the governor mobilized the National Guard to assist with the migrant crisis. Now, residents are outraged with the governor’s decision to house the migrants as Biden’s southern border crisis spreads nationwide.

Local newspaper The Bourne Enterprise reports anger spreads across the Cape Cod peninsula as “residents turned out in force to express opposition to the state’s opting to provide temporary housing for migrant families who have been relocated to Massachusetts.”

“Protesters outside the building that evening held signs reading “Americans First”; inside, residents at the lectern cited potential board of health regulations, as well as concerns with whether the public school system can accommodate children from the immigrant families,” the paper said.

Dozens of residents attended the Bourne Select Board meeting at the Bourne Veterans Memorial Community Center earlier this month to voice their opposition to Gov. Healey’s plan to transform parts of the Joint Base Cape Cod and local area hotels into migrant shelters.

Gov. Healey recently asked US Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas for help to combat the migrant crisis after her Democratic colleagues in the White House and on Capitol Hill have been determined to undermine Trump-era border policies for open border ones – that have led to millions of illegals pouring into the country over the last several years.

The governor has stated, “Massachusetts is in a state of emergency,” and commended the deployment of the National Guard to assist with the migrant crisis.

In New York City, Mayor Eric Adams warned in recent weeks that the migrant crisis will “destroy” the metro area.

It’s all fun and games for Democrats until Biden’s disastrous open border policies flood progressive metro areas with illegals.

Then these Democrats preach “NIMBY.”

end

UAW//FORD

Ford lays off 600 workers permanently as the strike at this facility does not affect production

(zerohedge)

Permanent Strike: Ford Lays Off 600 Workers Due To UAW Strike

TUESDAY, SEP 19, 2023 – 07:05 PM

As a result of the UAW strikes, 600 Ford employees will now be taking a permanent strike.

Just hours after it was reported that Stellantis could be shuttering 18 facilities as part of a new “improved” contract with the UAW, Ford faces additional realities of the ongoing strike: it has laid off 600 workers at the Michigan Assembly Plant’s body construction department, ABC Detroit reported.

The company said this week: “Our production system is highly interconnected, which means the UAW’s targeted strike strategy will have knock-on effects for facilities that are not directly targeted for a work stoppage. In this case, the strike at Michigan Assembly Plant’s final assembly and paint departments has directly impacted the operations in other parts of the facility.”

“Approximately 600 employees at Michigan Assembly Plant’s body construction department and south sub-assembly area of integrated stamping were notified not to report to work Sept. 15. This is not a lockout. This layoff is a consequence of the strike at Michigan Assembly Plant’s final assembly and paint departments, because the components built by these 600 employees use materials that must be e-coated for protection. E-coating is completed in the paint department, which is on strike,” it continued.

At the stroke of midnight last Friday, the United Auto Workers initiated their labor strike, focusing their initial efforts on three facilities—Ford’s Michigan Assembly Plant in Wayne, Stellantis’ Toledo Assembly Complex in Toledo, and a General Motors factory in Missouri.

To add insult to collateral-damage-injury, Stellantis, in a recent bargaining move with the United Auto Workers union, has floated a contract proposal — that could result in the shuttering of 18 American facilities, according to CNBC, citing sources familiar with strike discussions.

On Tuesday, the head of United Auto Workers, Shawn Fain, declared he will unleash additional strikes across manufacturing facilities of General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co., and Stellantis NV on Friday. This move is contingent on the three automakers not properly addressing the union’s demands for a new four-year labor contract for its 146,000 members.

“Either the Big Three get down to business and work with us to make progress in negotiations, or more locals will be called on to stand up and go out on strike,” UAW boss Fain said in a YouTube video published Monday evening.

Fain said, “We’re not waiting around, and we’re not messing around. So, noon on Friday, Sept. 22 is a new deadline.”

The union said Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis have “failed to put fair contract offers on the table.” A union representative told Bloomberg “no new offers” have come from the automakers “since the union made its latest proposals on Sept. 14, right before its strike began.”

END

STELLANTIS/UAW

Stellantis could shutter 18 facilities under the latest offer to the UAW

Stellantis Could Shutter 18 Facilities Under Latest Offer To UAW

WEDNESDAY, SEP 20, 2023 – 05:45 AM

If you’re looking for further proof that union extortion isn’t the greatest idea in history, behold Stellantis. In a recent bargaining move with the United Auto Workers union, the automaker has floated a contract proposal — that could result in the shuttering of 18 American facilities, according to CNBC, citing sources familiar with strike discussions.

The plan may also involve the rejuvenation of one dormant vehicle assembly plant in Illinois, hardly a silver lining for the planned “efficiency” cuts Stellantis is floating.

The proposal stands to impact thousands of unionized workers and reduce Stellantis’ operational reach in North America. Both sides of the negotiating table appear divided over the company’s ambition to modernize its parts and distribution network.

Central to the proposal is the idea to discontinue 10 existing “Mopar” distribution centers spread throughout the U.S., consolidating them into larger, Amazon-esque hubs. One such “Mega Hub” is being considered for the Belvidere Assembly plant, which has been inactive since last February.

“We continue to listen to the UAW to identify where we can work together and will continue to bargain in good faith until an agreement is reached. We look forward to getting everyone back to work as soon as possible,” said about ongoing talks, according to CNBC.

They described negotiations as “constructive and focused on where we can find common ground.”

In 2021, Stellantis expressed a desire to transition the majority of its salaried workforce—including approximately 17,000 employees in North America—to remote work for the greater part of their schedules. In line with this, the automaker confirmed it was “assessing the way we operate to maximize innovation, creativity, and efficiency among our teams, including possible changes to our property assets.”

The company reiterated, however, that its existing facilities would continue to serve as the North American headquarters and technical center.

The potential shutdown of 18 facilities was included in Stellantis’ most recent Thursday evening contract proposal to the UAW.

Fain said, “We’re not waiting around, and we’re not messing around. So, noon on Friday, Sept. 22 is a new deadline.”

end

This also could be deadly to the uSA economy

(zerohedge)

“It Could Be The Largest Healthcare Strike In US History”: Kaiser Workers In DC, Virginia, Maryland Authorize Strike

By Kelly Gooch of Beckers Hospital Review

Kaiser Permanente workers in the District of Columbia, Virginia and Maryland have joined workers in other states in voting to authorize a strike.

The Office and Professional Employees International Union Local 2 said in a news release that members at Kaiser voted to authorize a strike by a margin of 98 percent if no agreement is reached by Sept. 30. This comes after Service Employees International Union members in Colorado, California, Oregon and Southwest Washington voted to authorize a strike at Kaiser in the past two weeks.

Some unionized workers at Kaiser facilities are still voting on possible strike authorization, with voting by additional union members in California concluding on Sept. 20, according to the release. Oakland, Calif.-based Kaiser is currently bargaining with the Coalition of Kaiser Permanente Unions, which represents more than 85,000 workers at Kaiser facilities in California, Colorado, Oregon, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Maryland, Virginia and Washington.

If Kaiser workers end up striking, it could be the largest healthcare strike in U.S. history, union representatives estimate.

Union members contend that Kaiser is not properly addressing their priorities, including staffing and patient care. They also expressed concerns about workers’ ability to keep up with the cost of living, said management proposals related to pay and workforce development would make the staffing crisis worse, and argued that Kaiser has not bargained in good faith.

“We’ve been raising the alarm about patient safety, but Kaiser isn’t hearing us. Kaiser executives keep refusing to listen to frontline healthcare workers on the issues that impact the care of our patients, and they’re violating the law by failing to bargain in good faith,” Katrina Schaetz, OB-GYN clinical assistant, said in the OPEIU release. “We are standing up for more staff and better patient care. If Kaiser doesn’t stop committing unfair labor practices, healthcare workers are prepared to go on strike.”

Becker’s has reached out to Kaiser and will update this story if additional information becomes available.

Kaiser said in a statement shared with Becker’s last week that it “is a leader in employee wages and benefits in every market we are in. In bargaining this year, we are offering across-the-board wage increases, an enterprise wide minimum wage starting at $21 an hour, continuing our existing excellent health benefits and retirement income plans, and much more. These and our other operational proposals reflect our deep commitment to the economic well-being of our employees.”

Kaiser refuted some of union members’ claims in its statement, noting that the pay increases it has offered during bargaining sessions will put all Kaiser union members above market rates in their respective regions. The health system also pointed to the recruitment and workforce development efforts it has made, including investment in several education and training programs, tuition reimbursement programs, and coaching services for employees.

Kaiser also said it is committed to reaching an agreement “that ensures we can continue to provide market-competitive pay and outstanding benefits,” and is confident an agreement will be reached by the contract expiration date.

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON…

end

USA// COVID//VACCINE/

end

SWAMP STORIES

The ‘Kitchen Sink’ Is McCarthy’s Only Path To Avoid Shutdown, And It Probably Won’t Work

WEDNESDAY, SEP 20, 2023 – 11:45 AM

You wanted the job, Kevin…

With a shutdown looming in just over a week, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has backed himself into a corner.

On Tuesday, House Republicans were forced to cancel a procedural vote for a 30-day stopgap funding measure (Continuing Resolution) to keep the government’s lights on beyond Sept. 30. Hours later, five GOP lawmakers crossed the aisle to vote with Democrats to bring down the rule for the Pentagon’s spending bill.

As Punchbowl News puts it: “Tuesday was a bad day for McCarthy and House Republicans.”

The problem for Kevin is that he needs votes from members of the Freedom Caucus, who are demanding that the CR be spliced up so that it doesn’t fund ‘the election interference of Jack Smith,’ according to Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL). Gaetz also wants McCarthy to sign a subpoena to better investigation Hunter Biden’s alleged “high crimes and misdemeanors,” – with the Florida rep going so far as to draft said subpoena for McCarthy to sign.

McCarthy can also throw a Hail Mary and pander to Democrats for the votes he needs to pass the CR, however doing so would likely seal his fate over a looming threat by Gaetz and others to remove him from his post.

Kitchen Sink?

The former Politico journalists at Punchbowl News – who have an uncanny read on inside baseball on the Hill, say that McCarthy’s only solution here is to cave to the Freedom Caucus (which might still screw him!) with a “kitchen sink” approach of acquiescing to all of their demands.

McCarthy needs to take all of the conservatives’ demands and lump them together into one 30-day funding bill. Ignore how far-fetched or illogical these proposals are and accept what they represent — a means to an end. -Punchbowl News

Freedom Caucus member Ralph Norman (R-SC) told the outlet that he’d vote for the CR if McCarthy will commit to a $1.47 trillion discretionary spending cap, and a schedule for the 11 remaining FY2024 appropriations bills during the 30 days to which the CR applies.

But the pain isn’t over for McCarthy – even if he bends the knee and Freedom Caucus members agree to pass it, the bill will then head to the Senate, where they’ll undoubtedly strip out key Republican demands, and send a revised bill back to McCarthy that will likely contain billions of dollars for Ukraine.

McCarthy will then need to sell the CR back to House Republicans, who will either need to accept the reality of a divided government to avert a shutdown, or not.

Oh, and the Freedom Caucus might still dick him…

BTW: Another weakness here is that there’s no guarantee that McCarthy will be able to pass a CR even if he loads it up with House GOP priorities. There are a number of House Republicans — Reps. Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Matt Rosendale (Mont.), Ken Buck (Colo.), Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Dan Bishop (N.C.) and Tim Burchett (Tenn.) — who may vote no no matter what McCarthy does.

The bipartisan approach: If this were “The West Wing,” McCarthy would walk into the Problem Solvers Caucus and hash out a deal to avert a shutdown (He’d also be talking to President Bartlet!) Yet this is real life, not a TV show. And yes, McCarthy could easily pass a CR with a big bipartisan majority.

But this approach would likely threaten McCarthy’s hold on the speaker’s office. Gaetz is already leaving copies of his motion to vacate in bathrooms around the Capitol. If McCarthy partners with Democrats, Gaetz may want to move the motion from the loo to the floor. -Punchbowl News

Thus, Punchbowl thinks a shutdown is likely…

end

San Francisco

American Eagle Sues Owners Of San Francisco Westfield Mall Over “Rampant Criminal Activity”

WEDNESDAY, SEP 20, 2023 – 01:25 PM

Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times,

With retail theft crimes impacting its business, the company that owns clothing retailer American Eagle filed a lawsuit on Sept. 11 against the prior owners of the Westfield San Francisco Centre in Union Square for failing to uphold terms outlined in their lease agreement.

Such failures led to an increase in “rampant criminal activity,” including more than 100 occurrences of what were described as “significant security incidents” between May 2022 and May 2023, according to the lawsuit.

Employees were faced with repeated thefts, aggressive guests, and violence—with a machete used by an attacker in one instance—firearms brandished on multiple occasions, and assaults on staff impacting store operations, the suit alleges.

American Eagle contests that Westfield was responsible for maintaining common areas of the mall to provide for a quiet enjoyment of its store, in exchange for millions of dollars of rent paid.

Signed in 2017, the lease runs through Jan. 31, 2028—with an annual rent of approximately $2 million, in addition to a percentage of sales amounting to approximately $16 million a year.

With a street-front entrance on Market Street that the retail store closed due to increasing crime, the store is in a prime location within the mall, according to the lawsuit.

“American Eagle believed it was leasing a prime retail space with a street-front entrance in Downtown San Francisco from one of the most established and reputable retail landlords in the country,” attorneys for the retailer argue in the lawsuit.

“But Westfield let the mall deteriorate into disarray, leaving American Eagle and its employees to suffer. This is not the store American Eagle paid millions of dollars for, or the store that Westfield promised.”

After repeated incidents at the store, management implemented measures to mitigate the harm, including closing the street-front entrance, hiring security guards, installing security film on windows to prevent break-ins, and upgrading its security cameras—expenses incurred as a result of Westfield’s failure to address criminal activity, according to the lawsuit.

Plaintiffs are seeking an unspecified amount of money—to be determined by a jury—for harm caused by the alleged negligence.

“Westfield cannot walk away from the harm that it has caused without consequence,” the lawsuit reads.

“It must be held accountable for the damages caused by its failures and broken promises.”

Sections of the lease, according to court documents, require Westfield to allow American Eagle to “peaceably and quietly hold and enjoy” the premises “without hindrance or interruption” and to operate and maintain the mall at “a level comparable to other regional shopping malls in the region in which the shopping center is located.”

Attorneys point to discrepancies made between investments Westfield made, totaling more than $2 billion to maintain other malls in the region, and the decision made by the company in July to abandon the mall and default on its $558 million loan.

“What began as a slow decline in performance has turned to full neglect, leading to what Westfield has publicly acknowledged as ‘rampant criminal activity’ at and around the mall,” the lawsuit said.

“This rampant criminal activity and Westfield’s failure to properly maintain the common areas of the mall have stripped American Eagle of material purposes of the lease and interfered with American Eagle’s quiet enjoyment of the store.”

A shopper leaves the Westfield San Francisco Centre in San Francisco on April 13, 2022. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

A statement from Westfield following its decision to default on the loan suggested that rising crime impacted its business, pointing to the recent departure of Nordstrom and other retailers, and defended its investments in other malls.

“Given the challenging operating conditions in downtown San Francisco, which have led to declines in sales, occupancy and foot traffic, we have made the difficult decision to begin the process to transfer management of the shopping center to our lender to allow them to appoint a receiver to operate the property going forward,” the statement read.

“The unprecedented impact to the performance trends at San Francisco Centre are counter to positive increases in sales, occupancy and foot traffic across the rest of our portfolio.”

In response to Westfield closing its management office in the mall earlier this year, retailers were asked to communicate emergencies through texts or phone calls, but American Eagle alleges that less than half of those complaints received a response.

“Rather than take accountability for its actions and invest in fixing its mistakes, Westfield decided to leave its tenants, the city and people of San Francisco, and investors in San Francisco real estate holding the bag,” the lawsuit said.

American Eagle operates more than 1,400 stores worldwide and generated more than $1.475 billion in gross revenue in 2022, according to company data.

A request for comment from Westfield wasn’t returned by press time.

END

THE KING REPORT

GREG HUNTER

as a heads up, I will not be doing a commentary this Monday and Wednesday

I will provide just preliminary comex data

see you on THURSDAY


The King Report September 20, 2023 Issue 7079	Independent View of the News
Surging gasoline prices pushed Canadian CPI to 4% y/y in August. 3.8% was consensus. CPI increased 0.4% m/m; 0.2% was expected. Core Trim CPI rose to 3.9% y/y from 3.6%; 3.7% was expected. Core CPI Median hit 4.7%; 3.7% was expected; July CPI Median revised to 3.9% from 3.7%. The Rise in Oil Prices Is a Problem for Fed’s Soft LandingUS central bank often downplays inflation impact of higher oilLatest rise comes as consumers show incipient signs of strainThe Federal Reserve is confronting a familiar nemesis… rising oil prices.’… https://t.co/ybXmJ61iQq ESZs traded between modest gains and losses during Asian trading. They rallied modestly after Europe opened and then flatlined until they tumbled after the 8:30 ET release of Canadian August CPI. ESZs made a daily low of 4462.25 at 12:47 ET, -47.25 from the 4509.50 high. Pattern traders decided it was time to aggressively buy stuff for the usual rally into FOMC Communiques. ESZs hit 4496.75 at 14:37 ET. After a retreat to 4482.50 at 15:15 ET, the late manipulation began. ESZs hit 4495.25 at 15:45 ET and then rolled over into the close. USZs sank minutes after the US cash bond market opened at 8 ET. After a robust rally from 9:20 ET to 10:44 ET, USZs rolled over and went inert. At 14:05 ET, USZs broke down; the 10-year hit 4.367%, the highest rate since 2007. The US 5-year hit 4.517%, also the highest rate since 2007. US Housing Starts declined to 1.283m in August from 1.447m in July. 1.439m was expected. Permits, which tend to lag Starts, increased to 1.543m from 1.443m. 1.44m was consensus. Heritage economist @RealEJAntoni: *Housing starts plunge in Aug, led by apartments down 26% M/M, down 41% in 3 months*, now lowest level since summer ’20; more units are being completed than started – current employment in the industry in unsustainable. The big spike in housing permits will likely come back down soon as homebuilder sentiment tanked in the latest report… https://t.co/YEMGROXS8f Reuters: Azerbaijan launched “anti-terrorist activities” in the Nagorno-Karabakh region on Tuesday, saying it wanted to restore constitutional order and drive out what it said were Armenian troops, a move that could foreshadow a new war… https://www.reuters.com/world/what-is-happening-between-armenia-azerbaijan-over-nagorno-karabakh-2023-09-19/ WTI Oil soared to 93.74 at 9:10 ET on fear of an Azerbaijan-Armenia war. It then sank to 91.07 at 14:35 ET on Biden’s verbal intervention. @biancoresearch: BIDEN SAYS DEPLETING SPR IS ON TABLE: WSJ The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was created in the 1970s to prevent this from happening again (gas lines that created havoc in the US economy). But today, the definition national emergency has been expanded to mean Biden’s re-election. So, if necessary, drive the SPR to zero. If this means a total economic crisis between 2025 to 2028, there is no problem as long as Biden wins in 2024. Should the SPR go to zero, the engineering says refilling is prohibitively expensive. But a cheap solution is to designate drilling in the Alaskan National Wildlife Reserve (ANWR) as the new SPR. https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1704161769126580323 Positive aspects of previous session. Stocks staged the Fed Day Rally Negative aspects of previous session Mr. Bond voiced his displeasure again. 10-year & 5-year yields hit 16-year highs Oil rallied sharply until The Big Guy intervened verbally Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will surging energy inflation prevent a Fed Pause? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4436.80 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4449.85; 4416.61 Republicans tank vote on Pentagon funding package, deal blow to McCarthy Five Republican hardliners broke ranks to demand House leadership push for more substantive spending cuts… Congress faces a Sept. 30 deadline to fund the government or risk a shut down. In total, there are 12 appropriations bills that both chambers must approve to fully avert such a development. https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/republicans-tank-vote-pentagon-funding-package-deal-blow-mccarthy DOJ Scrutinizing Musk Perks at Tesla Going Back Years – WSJ Federal prosecutors are examining personal benefits Tesla may have provided Elon Musk since 2017—longer than previously known—as part of a criminal investigation examining issues including a proposed house for the chief executive… (Leftist’s blatant retribution against Musk escalates!) @Mayhem4Markets yesterday: Ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision, Fed funds futures are giving a hike just a 1% chance, and giving November a 28.8% chance… the market seems to think the Fed is done hiking. I believe Chair Powell will reset that expectation during the press conference. Today – The rally into FOMC Communiques (Fed Day Rally) commenced yesterday afternoon. Most of The Street expects the Fed to NOT hike its funds rate. The unknowns are the tone of the FOMC Communique and Powell Press Conference. As we’ve been warning, Team Obama has meticulously maneuvered to get leftists appointed to Fed presidencies and governorships. Fed leftists have been advocating a Fed Pause and those on the FOMC are likely to vote that way. If the Pause appears and leftists advocate dovish proclivities in the FOMC Communique, will Powell try to offset the leftists with hawkish remarks at his press conference? Most important dynamic today: How Mr. Bond reacts to a Fed Pause or dovish comments in the FOMC Communique or by Powell. Mr. Bond has been very unhappy for quiet some spell! ESZs are -0.75 and USZs are 11/32 at 20:30 ET in quiet pre-FOMC Communique trading. Expected econ data: FOMC Communique 14:00 ET, Powell Press Conference 14:30 ET S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4484; 100-day MA: 4371; 150-day MA: 4258; 200-day MA: 4186 DJIA 50-day MA: 34,861; 100-day MA: 35,262; 150-day MA: 33,865; 200-day MA: 33,810 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3814.46 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4586.76 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4431.22 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4450.59 triggers a buy signal FBI lost count of how many paid informants were at Capitol on Jan. 6 — later performed audit to figure out exact number: ex-official – At least one informant was communicating with his FBI handler as he entered the Capitol, according to Steven D’Antuono, formerly in charge of the bureau’s Washington field office… https://nypost.com/2023/09/19/fbi-lost-count-of-number-of-informants-at-capitol-on-jan-6-ex-official/ PELOSI LIED! Former Capitol Police Chief Sund Testifies He Had 3 Calls with Pelosi on Jan. 6 – Pelosi Said They Never Spoke – But Sund Says He Has the Receipts! https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/09/pelosi-lied-former-capitol-police-chief-sund-testifies/ Biden, speaking at the UN General assembly, said the US mobilizing to finance infrastructure projects around the world, while avoiding trap of sustainable debt. LMAO! @RNCResearch: Biden incoherently mumbles as he reads his remarks from his teleprompter at the UN General Assembly. https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1704143805207748979 Biden says he wants to work with China on “accelerating the climate crisis. https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1704142135887278090 BIDEN: “I’ve said we are for de-risking, not decoupling with China” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1704141785084104758 @RNCResearch: Biden’s brain freezes during his UN speech: BIDEN: “Simply put, the 21st century—21st century results—are badly needed. They’re needed to move us along…” https://t.co/hAJ1CiHH4U Biden slammed Russia, calling its incursion into Ukraine ‘an illegal war of conquest.’ The Big Guy averred that the US strongly supports Ukraine and its efforts to bring about a just and lasting peace – and Russia alone stands in the way of peace. Zelensky Disappointed? Biden’s Lackluster UN Speech Only Briefly Focused on Ukraine At times mumbling and stumbling through words on the teleprompter, as has become the norm, President Joe Biden… vowed to stay the course in terms of support for Ukraine for as long as it takes, but interestingly he spent a mere one minute on the Ukraine war… “If we abandon the core principles of the United Nations to appease an aggressor, can any member state in this body feel confident that they’re protected? If you allow Ukraine to be carved up, is the independence of any nation secure?” Biden asked rhetorically… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bidens-lackluster-un-speech-only-briefly-focused-ukraine @paulsperry_: *The Washington press corps and social media censors have spent the past several years building a firewall around the #BidenCrimeFamily*. We are only now starting to burn through it. Keep turning up the heat. The truth will out. Fetterman blasted by conservatives after Senate drops dress code: ‘Stop lowering the bar!’ https://t.co/qvPbzDdvzo Resurfaced interview shows Fetterman vowed to follow Senate dress code if elected Sen. Chuck Schumer dropped the Senate dress code Sunday evening in what is being called the ‘Fetterman Rule’ https://www.foxnews.com/politics/resurfaced-interview-shows-fetterman-follow-senate-dress-code-if-elected Antifa Discussed Plans to Firebomb Federal Buildings, Jan. 6 Court Filing Contends Defendant William Pope of Topeka, Kansas, included the information in a renewed U.S. District Court push (pdf) to compel federal prosecutors to produce all bodycam footage and video filmed by Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) undercover officers on Jan. 6, 2021… https://t.co/z3YRGtbzAW Crime is so bad in DC that Congress is distributing tips to avoid being carjacked in capital The District of Columbia is currently struggling to contend with a surge in criminal activity that has many questioning the safety of living in the city at all. Compared to this point in 2022, homicides are up 28% and on pace to reach their highest levels in more than 20 years. https://justthenews.com/government/local/holdlawmakers-warn-staffers-dc-crime-surge She’s #1! Woman accused of pepper spraying 4 Chicago cops is first to be sent home under state’s cashless bail system – Prosecutors did not ask Marubio to hold Aguilar in the county jail… https://cwbchicago.com/2023/09/woman-accused-of-pepper-spraying-4-chicago-cops-is-first-to-be-sent-home-under-states-cashless-bail-system.html Yes, Virginia, “truth, justice, and the American way” are vestiges of a once great republic; law, order, and decorum are in collapse. Yes, Virginia, this means civil society is in a state of collapse. Yes, Virginia, forces are doing this on purpose. You know what comes next!