Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price

USD oz AM2001.82

PM2006.49

Historical SGE Fi

NEW YORK PRICE AT THE SAME TIME: $1932.60

premium $73.90

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Bitcoin morning price:, $26,768 DOWN 159 Dollars

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $26,602 DOWN 325 dollars

Platinum price closing $924.70 DOWN $12.65

Palladium price; $1269.00 DOWN $14.00

END

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Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,588.87 DOWN 11.,46 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)

BRITISH GOLD: 1561,74 DOWN 3.42 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)

EURO GOLD: 1800.82 DOWN 10.82 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,945.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/20/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 09/22/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

118 C MACQUARIE FUT 10
323 H HSBC 15
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 22
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 25
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 6
661 C JP MORGAN 100 7
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1
690 C ABN AMRO 1
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 1 13

TOTAL: 101 101
MONTH TO DATE: 3,96

JPMorgan stopped 7/101 contracts.

FOR SEPT.:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2023. CONTRACT: 101 NOTICES FOR 10,100 OZ or 0.3141 TONNES

total notices so far: 3968 contracts for 396,800 oz (12.342 tonnes)

FOR SEPT:

SILVER NOTICES: 1 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 5,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 2618 for 13,090,000 oz

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END

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $25.60

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / SMALL CHANGES/A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES

Silver//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:HUGE CHANGES : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.1 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 449.033 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 486 CONTRACTS TO 125,263 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS TINY SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.35 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A FAIR SIZED 491 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 491 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES

WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.35). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 590 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:

A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 609 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 14.420 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S ZERO QUEUE JUMP OF NIL OZ//NEW TOTAL 13.410 MILLION OZ + OUR CRIMINAL ISSUANCE OF 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS//NEW TOTALS EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.0 MILLION OZ: NEW TOTALS SILVER STANDING: 16.410 MILLION OZ// /// / //FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 491 CONTRACTS)/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -467 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT:

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 14 days, total 10,395 contracts: OR 51.945 MILLION OZ (742 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 48.900 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 51.945 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 486 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.35 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 609 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 14.2 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP .+ 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//PRIOR TOTAL FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 3.0 MILLION OZ/TOTAL EXCH. FOR RISK /NEW TOTALS STANDING 16.410 MILLION OZ// /// WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 123 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED 491 CONTRACTS//ZERO FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (491) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .

WE HAD 1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 7783 CONTRACTS TO 445,861 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED: –2159 CONTRACTS

WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 7783 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR STRONG $13.00 GAIN IN PRICE//WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 12.656 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING 14.8211 TONNES + /A FAIR (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 1237 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $13.00 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 13,963 OI CONTRACTS (43.43 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 6180 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 445,861

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,963 CONTRACTS WITH 9942 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 6180 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 13,963 CONTRACTS OR 43.43 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 1237 CONTRACTS)

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (6180 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (7783) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 13,963 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 12.656 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP TO LONDON OF 10,000 OZ/// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH ZERO TAS LIQUIDATION C DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1237 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 37,387 CONTRACTS OR 3,738,700 OZ OR 116.28 TONNES IN 14 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2670 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 116.28 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 116.28/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.26% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 116.28 TONNES (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 486 CONTRACTS OI TO 125,263 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE A STRONG 609 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 609 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 609 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 486 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 609 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 123 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 0.615 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.35 GAIN IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 23.87 PTS OR 0.77% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 230.19 PTS OR 1.29%/ /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 452.75 PTS OR 1.37% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.30 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.3056 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.3132 /Oil DOWN TO 89.26 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 92.98 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7783 CONTRACTS TO 445,861 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $13.00 ON WEDNESDAY.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 6180 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 6180 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 6180 CONTRACTS

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GIGANTIC SIZED TOTAL OF 13,963 CONTRACTS IN THAT 6180 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7783 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG ADVANCE IN PRICE OF $13.00//WEDNESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 1237 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: SEPT (14.8211) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR: 19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676 tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 14.8211 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $13.00) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN OF 16,122 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 43.43 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (12.656 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 10,000 OZ//NEW STANDING 14.8211 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $13.00.

WE HAD – REMOVED 2159 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 13,963 CONTRACTS OR 1,396,300 OZ OR 43.43 TONNES.

Estimated gold volume today:// 220,970 fair

final gold volumes/yesterday 233,663 fair

//speculators have left the gold arena

//SEPT 21/ /// THE SEPT. 2023 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	nil OZ .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	NIL
No of oz served (contracts) today	101 notice(s) 10,100 OZ 0.3141 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	797 contracts 79700 oz 2.479 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	3968 notices 396,800 OZ 12.342 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	x

0 dealer deposit:

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

customer deposits: 0

total customer deposits: NIL oz

we had 0 customer withdrawals

total withdrawals nil oz

Adjustments; 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER.

For the front month of SEPTEMBER we have an oi of 898 contracts having GAINED 97 contracts. We had

3 contracts were served on WEDNESDAY, so we GAINED an additional 100 CONTRACTS or AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of Sept

Oct LOST 770 contracts to 22,215 contracts.

NOV GAINED 238 CONTRACTS to stand at 336

December GAINED 7387 contracts UP to 382,406 contracts.

We had 101 contracts filed for today representing 10,100 oz

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 100 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 101 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 7 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2023. contract month,

we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3968 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (898 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 101 x 100 oz per contract equals 476,500 OZ OR 14.8211 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non active month of SEPT.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month: No of notices filed so far (3968) x 100 oz + (898) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (101) x 100 oz) which equals 476,500 oz standing OR 14.8211 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 14.8211 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 2,016,871.449 OZ 62.733 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 20,931,908.140 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,801,765.332 (335,98 tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,130,142.808 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,784,894 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 273.24 tonnes//dropping like a stone

END

SILVER/COMEX

SEPT 21

//2023// THE SEPT 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,542,376.127 oz Brinks CNT Delaware JPMorgan .
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)	1 CONTRACT(S) (5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	64 contracts (320,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	2618 Contracts (13,090,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposit: 0

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 deposit customer account:

total customer deposit nil oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 136.312 million oz/272.537 million or 50.01%

Comex withdrawals 4

i) Out of Brinks 530,071.900 oz

ii) Out of CNT 420,438.600 oz

iii) Out of Delaware: 2954.875 oz

iv) Out of JPMorgan 588,910.752 oz

total: 1,542,376.127 oz

adjustments: 0

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 42.062 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 272.537 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF SEPT /2023 OI: 65 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 1 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 1

CONTRACT SERVED ON WEDNESDAY. SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR NIL ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX..

OCT LOST 40 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 975.

NOVEMBER GAINED 0 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 140

DEC. LOST 616 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 112,637 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 1 for 5,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 72,654 good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 60,667 fair

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2618 x 5,000 oz = 13,090,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (65) and the number of notices served upon today 1 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the SEPT/2023 contract month: 2618 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPT (65) – number of notices served upon today (1 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates to 13.410 million oz. + 0 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK..NEW TOTALS EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.0 MILLION OZ//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SILVER: 16.410 MILLION OZ//

There are 42.062 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.60 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD UP $13.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.055 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.70 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.01 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.22 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.69 TONNES

SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.81 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD UP 17.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $6.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES

AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $21.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $2.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES

AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD UP $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES

AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 887.50 TONNES

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.42 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 878.25 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.133 MILLION OZ

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.1 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.033 MILLION OZ

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.651 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.332 MILLION OZ

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.681 MILLION OZ

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1,009 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.373 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.625 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.834 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.210 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OF SILVER INTO THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 445.044 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.281 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.861 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.751 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.145 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.651 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.896 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 94 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.547 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 917,0000 OZ FROM THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 449.033 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey

Fed Talk & Dot Plots: There’s A Big Difference Between Saying And Doing

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 11:05 AM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at the September FOMC meeting, but the committee indicated that it plans to hold rates higher for longer than originally projected.

As you digest the Fed meeting, it’s important to remember that there is a big difference between “saying” and “doing.”

While the Fed didn’t raise rates this month, it indicated that it plans to hike one more time this year.

The FOMC was widely expected to stand pat this month. The question was how will the central bankers proceed in the months ahead. Based on projections released after the meeting, the Fed is leaning toward keeping monetary policy restrictive for longer.

As a Reuters article put it, the Fed “stiffened its hawkish stance.”

The official FOMC statement was virtually identical to the one issued after the July meeting.

“The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”

The committee also stuck to its “data dependent” mantra, saying it will “continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook” and adjust monetary policy if “risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.”

The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.”

In a nutshell, the Fed continued to give itself plenty of wiggle room to justify any action it takes in the future.

During his post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the committee is “in a position to proceed carefully in determining the extent of additional policy firming.” But he also said the committee members would like to see more progress in its inflation fight.

We want to see convincing evidence really that we have reached the appropriate level, and we’re seeing progress and we welcome that. But, you know, we need to see more progress before we’ll be willing to reach that conclusion.”

The CPI came in hotter than expected in August, throwing some cold water on the disinflation narrative.

While there were no surprises in policy or official rhetoric, the so-called “dot-plot” released by the committee was slightly more hawkish than the one released after the June meeting.

Twelve FOMC members indicated that they expect one additional hike this year while seven opposed it.

Meanwhile, committee members projected two rate cuts in 2024. That’s two fewer than the June forecast and would put rates around 5.1% at the end of 2024. Over the longer term, FOMC members projected rates to come in around 2.9% in 2026.

Powell indicated that optimism about the economy was driving the anticipation of fewer cuts next year more than worry about persistent price inflation.

The FOMC statement said, “The committee characterized economic activity as “expanding at a solid pace,” and the Fed upped its economic forecast significantly, projecting GDP to increase 2.1% this year. That’s more than double the 1% estimate from June. They expect growth to slow to 1.5% next year, up from June’s 1.1% projection. Any talk of a recession is completely out of the discussion.

Broadly, stronger activity means we have to do more with rates, and that’s what that meeting is telling you.”

Saying Isn’t Doing

Powell and Company say they will raise rates one more time. And they say they will leave rates higher for longer. But saying and doing are two different things.

In fact, the Fed’s track record at projecting the trajectory of interest rates is abysmal. The central bankers would likely offer more accurate projections if they just threw darts at a dart board.

According to fund manager David Hay, the Fed has only gotten interest rate projections right 37% of the time. And as Hay pointed out, “They control interest rates!”

Just consider that in March 2021, the FOMC projected the interest rate would still be zero in 2022. The actual 2022 rate was 1.75%. And in 2023, the vast majority of FOMC members thought the rate would still be zero percent. The actual rate – over 5%.

This is just one example of how horribly wrong the Fed has been. I can cite other examples.

Remember back in 2006 when the central bankers insisted there was no housing bubble? Then when things started to unravel, they promised the problem was contained to subprime.

In 2008, Ben Bernanke launched quantitative easing and swore that it wasn’t debt monetization. He said the Fed would sell all of the bonds it planned to buy once the emergency was over. Today, virtually all of those bonds remain on the Fed’s balance sheet.

It’s almost like the Fed people are wrong about everything.

So, why should we put any stock at all in the most recent dot-plot or the Fed’s economic projections?

The problem is the central bankers are disconnected from reality. This also seems typical. Remember “transitory” inflation?

The point here is there is no reason to believe anything Powell and Company said today or to think their musings will aid in projecting the central bank’s next moves. Given the Fed’s track record, it’s more likely that rates will be at zero by the end of next year and the US economy will be in the clutches of a deep recession.

The fact is the Fed can afford to be hawkish as long as the economy is limping along with no obvious hiccups. The real test will come when something breaks in the economy.

And something will break with interest rates at 5.5%. It’s just a matter of time.

As the saying goes, things happen slowly and then all at once.

Interest rates are higher than they were in June 2006, the peak of that hiking cycle that burst the housing bubble. The Fed held them there until Bernanke cut rates in September 2007 when home sales started to collapse. In other words, rates are currently at levels that set off the 2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession. The difference is today we have even more debt and malinvestments in the economy. One has to wonder why anybody thinks things will turn out differently this time.

Consider this; the last time rates were this high, the national debt was a mere $5.6 trillion. Today the debt stands at over $33 trillion and the federal government is running huge deficits month after month.

Meanwhile, there were more corporate defaults through the first six months of 2023 than we had in all of ’22, and “healthy” American consumers have blown through their savings and have turned to using credit cards with 20 percent-plus interest rates to make ends meet.

The fact is the Federal Reserve has screwed up everything that is a function of interest rates. Rate hikes have already precipitated a financial crisis. Despite the Fed’s insistence that “the US banking system is sound and resilient,” we’ve already witnessed three major bank failures. The Fed’s bank bailout papered over those problems and plugged that hole in the dam (Banks are still getting bailout money.), but it’s only a matter of time before something else breaks. (Commercial real estate is a good candidate.)

Cuts are coming, no matter how tough Powell talks today, or what the rest of his crew put on a dot plot. It doesn’t matter what they say. It’s all about what they do.

end

2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO

3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

Seems that London is too afraid of sanctions so Russia sells its gold production to the UAE. This begins the loop in that India (and others) buys this gold for discounted Russian oil and pays gold for it. Thus gold for oil and Russia accumulates gold.

(Bloomberg)

Russia becomes UAE’s top gold source after being shut out of West

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-09-20 13:25Section: Daily Dispatches

By Eddie Spence
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, September 20, 2023

Russia became the United Arab Emirates’ top source of gold last year after Western countries imposed sanctions on supplies following the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.

The UAE last year imported 96.4 tons of gold from Russia, more than any other country, according to the United Nations’ Comtrade database. That’s roughly a third of Russia’s annual mine production, and a more than 15-fold increase year-on-year in the UAE’s gold imports from the country.

The UAE has long been a key hub for precious metals, particularly from Africa and India, but last year was the first time it played a major role in trading Russian gold. Before the war, almost all of Russia’s bullion was shipped to London, the world’s top market, but it rapidly became taboo among the banks that used to handle it. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-20/russia-becomes-uae-s-top-gold-source-after-being-shut-out-of-west

end

4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES//CHINA==LONDON GOLD ARBITRATION

-END-

END

5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:IRON ORE//CARBON OFFSETS

Congratulations to these guys: these figured out this carbon nonsense

(zerohedge)

Backfire: World’s Fourth Largest Iron Ore Producer Stops Purchasing Carbon Offsets

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 04:15 AM

About three weeks after Shell, Europe’s largest oil company, quietly shelved the world’s largest corporate plan to develop carbon offsets, the world’s number four iron ore producer, Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., has decided to end purchases of voluntary carbon offsets. This comes as at least one major study has revealed carbon offsets are prone to ‘greenwashing’ and most credits don’t actually benefit the climate.

Billionaire Andrew Forrest’s Fortescue Metals produced about 2.55 million tons of scope 1 and 2 carbon dioxide emissions in the year leading up to June 30. Bloomberg said the company has implemented a new policy to halt purchases of carbon offset credits from the current fiscal year.

“We are the only heavy emitter in the world to stop purchasing voluntary offsets,” Dino Otranto, chief executive officer of Fortescue’s metals business, said in a statement.

The move by Fortescue comes after Shell laid out an updated strategy for the company that included cutting costs and doubling down on profit centers (oil and gas) – which notably shelved the world’s largest corporate plan to develop carbon offsets.

According to Bloomberg Green’s investigations, many offset programs don’t deliver the promised environmental benefits.

A study by the University of California, Berkeley’s Goldman School of Public Policy found that REDD+ credits account for a quarter of the carbon offset market. And according to researchers, “Most credits probably don’t represent any climate benefit.”

The Berkeley findings raise serious questions about the carbon offsets market come months after the world’s leading carbon credit certifier, Verra, sold worthless offsets to major corporations.

Recall Elon Musk tweeted one year ago, “ESG is a scam. It has been weaponized by phony social justice warriors.”

As we noted earlier this year, “Carbon Credits Are The Biggest Scam Since Indulgences… How You Can Avoid Being Fleeced.”

END

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

END

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3056

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.3132

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 23.87 PTS OR 0.77%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 452.75PTS OR 1.37%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 218.81 PTS OR .66 %

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 105.30 EURO FALLS TO 1.0530 UP 52 BASIS PT

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.737 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.93/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFFSHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.7495***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 4.542*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.800…**

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.095

3j Gold at $1918.95 silver at: 23.09 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 60 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 95.55//

3m oil into the 89 dollar handle for WTI and 92 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.93// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.737% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9049 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9627well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.4444 UP 10 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.486 UP 8 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.165 UP 8 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.12…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 6 BASIS PTS AT 4.3650

end

2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

USA EARLY MORNING REPORT

Futures, Global Stocks Tumble As Markets Reel After Fed’s Hawkish Pause

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 08:13 AM

Futures are sharply lower, extending yesterday’s steep losses after the Fed’s hawkish pause. The Fed wasn’t alone in keeping rates unchanged: it was followed by both the SNB and BOE, both of which surprised markets by not raising rates and sending the franc and sterling sliding. On the other hand, the inflation-ridden Riksbank and Norges both hiked, telling investors to expect more such moves. Hyperinflating basket case Turkey hiked by 500bps, in line with expectations. As of 7:45am, S&P futures tumbled 0.7% to 4,415, while Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1% briefly dipping below the key 15,000 level. Most Treasury yields climbed apart from two-year rates, which edged lower. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index traded near the day’s highs, pressuring most other Group-of-10 currencies. Brent crude fell for a third-straight day, trading below $93. Gold slid and Bitcoin declined 1%. Today’s macro data focus is on Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, Leading Index, and Philly Fed.

In premarket trading, Splunk was set to open sharply higher after Cisco announced it would purchase the company for $157/share (it closed just below $120). Broadcom slumped after a report by The Information that Google has discussed dropping the company as an AI chips supplier as early as 2027. FedEx shares rise as much as 5.4% after the courier raised the lower end of its fiscal 2024 adjusted EPS forecast, thanks to cost cutting, strong pricing and customers who switched to the courier from its main rival on concern over a potential strike, and prompting analysts to hike their price targets on the stock. Analysts were positive on the company’s cost reduction progress and highlighted the strong performance at its Ground unit and said that guidance is still conservative. Here are the other notable premarket movers:

ARM Holdings shares fall 2.3%, with the chip designer nearing its $51 IPO price, as rising bond yields put pressure on growth stocks, with tech peers down too.
Broadcom shares drop as much as 4.6%, following a report from The Information that Google executives “extensively” discussed dropping the semiconductor maker as an AI chips supplier as early as 2027, citing a person familiar with the matter.
CrowdStrike shares rise as much as 3.4%, as analysts hike their price targets on the stock following the Fal.Con cybersecurity conference and investor briefing, at which it set out new targets. Analysts said the company’s margin outlook was especially strong, and new products such should help boost growth.
Film and entertainment stocks rise, after Hollywood Studios and writers came a step closer to reaching a deal to end months of strikes. Warner Bros (WBD US) +3.1% and Paramount (PARA US) +3%.

The Fed on Wednesday held its target range, while updated quarterly projections showed most officials favored another rate hike in 2023. Policymakers also see less easing next year, with the median forecast for the federal funds rate at 5.1% by year-end, up from 4.6% when projections were last updated in June.

“People did expect a hawkish hold from the Fed, but it’s the extent of the hawkishness that surprised,” said Lee Hardman, a strategist at MUFG Bank Ltd. “We thought they may take one cut out of next year’s forecasts — instead they took two out. So it was much more hawkish than markets were pricing in.”

Some non-Fed headlines came from BAC’s CFO who says, “It’s difficult to see a US recession when the consumer is spending 4% more year-over year.” Axios reported that the US Chamber of Commerce’s Small Business Index, a confidence indicator, has reached its highest level since COVID struck US markets in early 2020. The survey includes 751 business, each that have fewer than 500 people; 71% say they expect revenue to increase next year. Spoiler alert: it won’t.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index declined 1% but was off session lows, with all sectors in the red, as traders digested the Fed’s higher-for-longer message. Travel and leisure stocks fell the most, while miners and industrial stocks also underperformed. Swiss equities were higher after the SNB unexpectedly paused rate hikes, while the BOE is due to announce its rate decision later Shares in UK banks and home builders rose as traders slashed their bets on further rate hikes with UBS saying the BOE hiking cycle is now over. The central bank held its key rate at 5.25%, ending a series of 14 successive hikes since December 2021, after a surprise drop in August inflation this week.

“Inflation has fallen a lot in recent months and we think it will continue to do so,” BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said in a written statement. “That’s welcome news. But there is no room for complacency. We need to be sure inflation returns to normal and we will continue to take the decisions necessary to do just that.”

A day after the Federal Reserve’s meeting, Europe had its own frenetic flurry of central bank decisions. Before the BOE, Swiss National Bank surprised investors by holding interest rates, causing the franc’s steepest drop since May against the euro. Sweden’s Riksbank increased its key rate as expected and said more hikes were possible, while Norway’s central bank said more tightening may come in December after raising rates to the highest in more than 14 years. Here are Europe’s top movers:

Merck shares gain as much as 2.2% after Citi raised its recommendation on the German biotech group to buy, predicting performance in the firm’s Life Science and Semiconductor segments will recover in the near future.
JD Sports shares rise as much as 8.6% after reporting results that Peel Hunt analysts said reflected a “surprisingly strong” performance in the US following recent guidance cuts from peers Foot Locker and Dick’s Sporting Goods.
Next shares gain as much as 2.5% after the UK retailer boosted its pretax profit outlook for the full year, following other guidance raises in August and June. The third guidance update in three months is impressive, with the sales outlook suggesting resilience in the first half, Jefferies said.
Safilo shares rise as much as 8.1%, the most intraday since August 2022, after the Italian eyewear company said it’s launching its Carrera Smart Glasses with Amazon.com’s Alexa technology, according to a statement late on Wednesday.
Valneva shares rise as much as 4.7% after the French pharmaceutical firm reported better-than-expected first-half earnings. Van Lanschot Kempen sees a “strong set” of figures with beats across the board.
CVS Group shares gain as much as 4.4% after the veterinary services firm reports better-than-expected profit. The stock plummeted earlier this month as UK antitrust regulators announced a probe of the sector.
Delivery Hero rises as much as 2%, adding to Wednesday’s 7.1% gain, as the food delivery company confirmed that it’s mulling a sale of some businesses in Southeast Asia. Analysts said a potential deal could boost the company’s balance sheet and profit by shaking off some unprofitable operations that are currently involved in intensive competition.
Ocado shares drop as much as 9.3% after being downgraded to underperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane, which cited the British online grocer’s share price rally in recent months.
SSP Group shares fall as much as 8.7% after the food services company gave a trading update saying it expects full-year EPS toward the lower end of its guidance range. Analysts at Goodbody and Shore Capital noted the FX headwinds apparent in the update, but were encouraged by the opportunity from new business.
Engcon shares drop as much as 8.9% after an editorial column on Swedish retail-trading website Placera.se recommended its users sell the Swedish industrial firm’s shares, citing a high valuation and slowing growth prospects.
Quadient shares fall as much as 8.7% after the French postal- and document-services company reported first-half results that Oddo said were slightly below estimates.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell the most in nearly a month after the Fed signaled that interest rates will remain higher for longer amid renewed economic strength, while Chinese equities slumped on persistent pessimism. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.4%, set for a fourth day of losses, led by health-care and technology shares. Most markets in the region were down, with South Korea’s Kospi Index slumping more than 1% as large-cap chip and battery stocks dragged. The Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged as expected, while indicating that borrowing costs will likely stay higher for longer after one more hike this year. The message triggered overnight losses in Wall Street, gains in Treasury yields and strength in the dollar.

Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined alongside the downbeat mood across regional peers, although the losses in the mainland were initially cushioned following the Chinese Cabinet’s pledge to speed up the development of the advanced manufacturing sector and amid resilience in developers after Guangzhou adjust purchase rules for several districts.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 retreated below the 33,000 level as Japanese yields climbed to decade highs and with the BoJ kickstarting its 2-day policy meeting.
Australia’s ASX 200 was lower with the top-weighted financial industry leading the broad declines.
India’s benchmark stocks gauge dropped for a third consecutive session to its two-week low as US Federal Reserve’s signal to keep interest rates higher for longer spooked equities in Asia. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.9% to 66,230.24 in Mumbai, its lowest close since Sept. 6. The NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 0.8% to 19,742.35. ICICI Bank contributed the most to the Sensex’s decline, decreasing 2.8%. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex index, 6 rose and 20 fell, while 4 were unchanged.

In FX, the dollar gained against most major currencies, aside from the yen, which traded around 148 per dollar after weakening on Wednesday to the lowest level since November.

EUR/CHF rises as much as 0.8% to 0.9656, the biggest daily jump since June
EUR/SEK drops as much as 0.9% to 11.7687; it rose earlier to 11.9381 after the Riskbank announced a quarter-point interest rate increase
EUR/NOK drops as much as 0.4% to 11.4573 before halving losses; Wednesday’s low is 11.4560
GBP/USD falls as much as 0.4% to 1.2265, after the BOE unexpectedly ended its hiking cycle

With most central banks out of the way, attention now turns to Friday’s BOJ announcement. There are heightened prospects of official support for the Japanese currency, said John Vail, chief global strategist for Nikko Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “Japan’s Ministry of Finance is likely to intervene in large fashion at 150 per dollar because it is hard to tolerate more inflationary pressure.”

The value of the yen has slumped to the lowest on record, as measured against a broad basket of its peers and adjusted for inflation, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. This underscores the pressure to address yen weakness at the Bank of Japan, which is where this week’s series of central bank policy meetings wraps up on Friday.

In rates, treasury yields were broadly higher after the rate on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, hit the highest since 2006 on Wednesday. After resuming post-Fed selloff in early Asia session, front-end of the Treasuries curve trades richer on the day into early US, outperforming belly and long-end as steepening move extends. US yields richer by 2bp across front-end of the curve while belly out to long-end trades cheaper by 1.5bp to 4bp on the day; 10-year yields around 4.45% the highest level since 2007, underperforming bunds and gilts by 1.5bp and 5bp in the sector. Gilts were supported after Bank of England keeps rates unchanged. Long-end Treasury yields also reach new cycle highs, joining rest of the curve after Wednesday’s Fed decision. Dollar IG issuance slate includes IBK 5Y; issuance paused Wednesday for the Fed decision and is expected to remain quiet for Thursday. US economic data slate includes 2Q current account balance, September Philadelphia Fed business outlook and weekly initial jobless claims (8:30am), August existing home sales and leading index (10am); no Fed speakers scheduled.

In commodities, oil’s breakneck rally is taking a breather as a smaller-than-expected drop in US crude stockpiles bolstered technical resistance to further gains; crude futures declined with WTI falling 1% to trade near $88.80. Spot gold drops 0.4%.

To the day ahead, and we’ll get the Bank of England’s latest policy decision, and also hear remarks from the ECB’s Schnabel and Lane. Otherwise, data releases include the US weekly initial jobless claims, existing home sales for August, the Conference Board’s leading index for August, and the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook for September. In the Euro Area, we’ll get the preliminary consumer confidence reading for September, whilst in the UK there’s the public finances for August.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 4,430.50
Brent Futures down 1.3% to $92.35/bbl
Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,926.07
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.13% to 105.46
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 457.60
MXAP down 1.5% to 159.24
MXAPJ down 1.6% to 492.56
Nikkei down 1.4% to 32,571.03
Topix down 0.9% to 2,383.41
Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 17,655.41
Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,084.70
Sensex down 0.9% to 66,197.17
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.4% to 7,065.23
Kospi down 1.7% to 2,514.97
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.73%
Euro little changed at $1.0657
Brent Futures down 1.3% to $92.35/bbl

Top Overnight News

Japan may be nearing a point where it can declare victory in its battle against deflation, paving the way for further BOJ policy normalization. Nikkei
As China’s stock market struggles to recover, regulators have started to probe some hedge funds and brokerages on quantitative trading strategies amid a growing outcry against a sector able to profit from share price falls and volatility. RTRS
Natural gas prices sink in Europe as Chevron seems close to resolving a strike in Australia while flows recover in Norway. BBG
Norway’s central bank hikes rates by 25bp to 4.25%, as expected, and provides hawkish forward guidance by signaling another increase in Dec (most assumed today’s hike would be the last one). Switzerland’s SNB surprises markets by leaving rates unchanged (economists were anticipating a 25bp hike). BBG
Poland looks to downplay remarks from its PM about no longer supplying weapons to Ukraine, insisting that the country remains a committed to helping Kyiv achieve victory. FT
Google has talked “extensively” about dropping Broadcom as its AI chip supplier as soon as 2027 as the internet giant looks to cut costs and utilize proprietary silicon (in addition, Google is working to replace Broadcom with Marvell for network interface chips). The Information
House Republicans reported major progress charting a path forward on a partisan bill to avert a government shutdown and a Department of Defense spending bill — two measures that suffered public setbacks just a day before — after Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) hashed out a new framework for a GOP-only stopgap proposal in a House Republican conference meeting that lasted more than two hours on Wednesday. The Hill
AMZN is abandoning plans to impose a new fee on merchants that don’t use its shipping services amid increased regulatory/antitrust scrutiny on the company from the gov’t. BBG
FDX reported very strong FQ1 earnings, with EPS of 4.55 (vs. the Street 3.73), thanks to aggressive cost cutting, and the full-year EPS outlook was increased (although by less than the Q1 beat). RTRS

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were pressured in the aftermath of the FOMC’s hawkish pause. ASX 200 was lower with the top-weighted financial industry leading the broad declines. Nikkei 225 retreated below the 33,000 level as Japanese yields climbed to decade highs and with the BoJ kickstarting its 2-day policy meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined alongside the downbeat mood across regional peers, although the losses in the mainland were initially cushioned following the Chinese Cabinet’s pledge to speed up the development of the advanced manufacturing sector and amid resilience in developers after Guangzhou adjust purchase rules for several districts.

Top Asian News

Japanese PM Kishida said he will instruct people to pull together the pillars of an economic package early next week, while they will include measures to counter inflation and social measures to counter declining population, according to Reuters.
Chinese Commerce Ministry says some firms have obtained export licenses for gallium and germanium; willing to seek a basket of solutions for the Australian wine dispute.
China’s 2023 nat gas demand seen at 396.4BCM, +8% Y, via CNOOC; LNG imports 70.79mln/T, +10.9% YY. Nat gas demand from China seen peaking in 2040 at 700BCM.

European bourses are pressured as the region reacts to Wednesday’s FOMC where a hawkish hold was delivered, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.1%. Action which continues the tone of APAC trade but with the region conscious of a Chinese cabinet pledge around manufacturing and also beginning to look ahead to Friday’s BoJ. Sectors are primarily in the red with the exception of Retail post-earnings from JD Sports and Next which reside towards the top of the Stoxx 600; Travel/Leisure and Basic Resources lag, latter on benchmark activity and numerous price target cuts. US futures are lower across the board but with action slightly more contained when compared to European peers, ES -0.4%, NQ -0.6%; today’s docket has a handful of data points before Friday’s Fed speak resumption with Cook, Daly & Kashkari. Google (GOOG) reportedly wants to ditch Broadcom (AVGO) as its TPU sever chip supplier to reduce AI costs, according to The Information; Since last year has been working to replace Broadcom with Marvell Technology (MRVL). Pre-market: GOOG -0.7%, AVGO -5.2%, MRVL +3.5%

Top European News

Sunak Gambles on Voters Focusing More on Costs Than Climate
Next Raises Guidance Again as Wage Gains Boost Shoppers
SNB Surprises With Rate Pause as Tightening Tames Inflation
Riksbank Hikes Swedish Rate With Door Kept Open to Act Again
Norway Raises Rate Again and Signals Another Move in December
Swiss Stocks Outshine Peers as SNB Pauses; Fed Weighs on Region

The Fed revives Greenback fortunes via more hawkish dot plots, DXY firmly back above 105.000 within a 105.400-680 range.
Franc collapses as SNB defies expectations for a 25bp hike and bases new forecasts on steady 1.75% rate, EUR/CHF and USD/CHF spike circa 100 pips to 0.9677 and 0.9078 respectively.
Pound flounders in the dark about BoE prospects for midday as markets remain split between pause and 1/4 point rate rise, Cable sub-1.2300 from just over 1.2350 at best.
Yen and Euro pare declines vs. Dollar ahead of 148.50 and 1.0600, with EUR/USD propped up by a Fib and option expiries.
Norwegian Crown underpinned around 11.5000 vs. Euro after hawkish Norges Bank hike, Swedish Krona choppy on either side of 11.9000 as Riksbank reaches a peak and hedges 25% FX reserves.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1730 vs exp. 7.3052 (prev. 7.1732)
The European Commission has sent a letter to Poland listing 11 questions to determine the scope of the visa-for-bribes scandal and the EU security impact, via Politico; the letter warns that Poland could be violating EU law

Fixed Income

Bonds off worst levels, but still heavy in wake of hawkish FOMC and through slew of other Central Bank pronouncements.
Bunds below par between 129.69-23 parameters, Gilts sub-96.00 within 96.41-95.81 range and T-note nearer base of 108-16/25+ bounds pre-BoE, IJC, Philly Fed and ECB speakers

Commodities

Crude benchmarks are softer intraday given broader risk sentiment post-Fed, WTI below USD 89.00/bbl and Brent down to a test of USD 92.00/bbl respectively at worst; currently off these lows.
Dutch TTF pressured as Offshore Alliance members at Woodside have overwhelmingly voted to endorse a deal with the company.
Spot gold is under modest pressure as the USD remains bid with base metals similarly pressured on the broader risk tone.
Saudi Crown Prince MBS responded that output reductions are purely based on supply and demand to the market when asked about criticism that oil output cuts help Russia.
Australian industrial arbitrator said Chevron (CVX) and unions are on the precipice of achieving the first enterprise agreements for LNG facilities and discussions have resulted in widespread agreement on the majority of provisions of proposals. The arbitrator made recommendations on pay and working conditions for Chevron and unions to consider but noted that a failure to settle all outstanding issues would result in the agreed provisions simply evaporating, while parties are required to advise the commission of their acceptance or rejection of recommendations by 09:00 Sydney time on Friday.
Offshore Alliance members at Woodside (WDS AT) have overwhelmingly voted to endorse a deal with the company while members at Chevron (CVX) will meet tonight to consider a recommendation made by the Fair Work Commission, according to a statement.
Natural Gas Pipeline Co. declared a force majeure on the M&M line near compressor station 158 located in Dewey County, Oklahoma.
Russia is mulling an additional tax on exports for some commodities including metals, according to sources cited by Reuters.

Geopolitics

Russian Foreign Ministry said NATO drills near Russian borders are increasingly provocative and aggressive in nature, as well increase risks of incidents, according to RIA.
Saudi Arabia said solving the Palestinian issue is critical to a deal with Israel, according to FT. In relevant news, Saudi Crown Prince MBS said he is prepared to work with whoever is leading Israel if there is a breakthrough in negotiations for normalisation with Israel, while he had also commented that Saudis will get a nuclear weapon if Iran does first, according to AFP and Fox News.
Iranian President Raisi said Iran has no problem with IAEA inspections of its nuclear sites.
Qatar held separate bilateral meetings with the US and Iran this week, touching on nuclear and drone issues, according to sources cited by Reuters.
Kuwait’s PM said the Iraqi ruling on regulating navigation in Khor Abdullah Waterway includes historical fallacies and Iraq needs to take concrete, decisive and urgent measures to address the ruling, according to Reuters.
Nagorno-Karabakh ethnic Armenians say Azerbaijani forces have violated the ceasefire; Azerbaijan denies its forces violated the ceasefire.

US Event Calendar

08:30: Sept. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225,000, prior 220,000
08:30: Sept. Continuing Claims, est. 1.69m, prior 1.69m
08:30: Sept. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. -1.0, prior 12.0
08:30: 2Q Current Account Balance, est. -$220b, prior -$219.3b
10:00: Aug. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 0.7%, prior -2.2%
10:00: Aug. Leading Index, est. -0.5%, prior -0.4%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As widely expected, the FOMC kept the fed funds rate on hold yesterday, but this pause was accompanied by clear hawkish undertones and both bonds and equities sold off notably in the aftermath. 10yr US yields are at 4.43% as I type this morning, +12bps above where they were prior to the meeting. The starting point for the hawkishness came from the updated dot plot in the new Summary of Economic Projections. The end-2023 median dot was unchanged at 5.6%, but the median dot for 2024 moved 50bps higher to 5.1% (our US economists had expected 2024 to move up by 25bps). So the median FOMC member is pencilling in only two rate cuts in 2024, after one more hike this year. Interestingly, the newly published projections for 2026 showed the median dot at 2.9%, still above the long-term projection of 2.5%, so pointing to a persistently “tight” policy stance. The higher 2024-25 dot plot came as the SEP moved further towards a soft landing view, lowering unemployment projections for both 2024 and 2025 by 0.4pp to 4.1%. That would be only a slight uptick from the latest 3.8% level.

In the press conference Powell actually said that he “would not” have a soft landing as a baseline expectation, though later adding that soft landing is a primary objective for the FOMC. A little bit of a confusing message but overall, Powell reinforced a higher-for-longer message. Echoing the dot plot, he noted that the neutral rate may have risen and it was “certainly possible that the neutral rate…at this moment is higher than (the long-run rate)”. He also downplayed the prospects of cuts, saying that the FOMC was “never intending to send a signal” about timing of rate cuts with its dot plot and that “there’s so much uncertainty around” this.

Powell’s comments did see some moderation of the near-term tightening bias. He noted several times that the Fed is now in a position to “proceed carefully”. The prepared remarks struck a softer tone on labour market tightness and Powell highlighted that the last three inflation prints were “very good” readings, though not yet enough for the Fed to be confident they have reached a “sufficiently restrictive” stance. Our US economists note that with the FOMC end-2023 projections being likely too high on inflation and too low on unemployment, these set a relatively low bar for skipping the final projected hike. Correspondingly, our economists continue to expect no further rate increases – see the reaction note here for their full take.

So overall, the Fed sent a clear message that they think rates will stay high for longer, and the markets took this on board. Fed fund futures saw the chances of another hike by the end of the year move up to 54% from 45% the day before, with the peak rate now priced for January 2024 (with a 58% chance of a hike by then). Fed funds pricing for end-24 rose by +13.3bps on the day, and 20bps from its earlier intra-day lows, to a new cycle high of 4.76% (this is still more than 30bps below the Fed’s new median dot). My CoTD yesterday looked the implications of this pricing. Although it reflects the market pricing in a soft landing, the high levels probably increase the risk of a hard one. See the short note here.

In the bond market, the 2yr Treasury yield had been trading a few bps lower prior to the Fed decision but spiked by nearly 10bps in its immediate aftermath and closed +8.5bps up on the day at 5.18%, the highest level since 2006. The 10yr yield was up by +4.9bps to 4.41%, a new post-2007 high and is above 4.43% as I type. Meanwhile, the 10yr real yield closed above 2% for the first time since early 2009 (+6.6bps to 2.05%). Equities also lost ground in response to the Fed’s hawkish signal. The S&P 500 was down -0.94% by the close, with the decline coming during and after Powell’s press conference. Tech stocks lagged, with the NASDAQ down -1.53% and the Magnificent Seven mega caps down -2.20%. In FX, the dollar index gained about half a percent following the Fed event, closing up +0.19% on the day after trading lower earlier on. This morning in Asia, the trend continues with the dollar index rising another +0.2% and to fresh 14-year highs. The Yen has drifted to the lowest level since last November since the FOMC with this being an interesting set up ahead of the BoJ tomorrow morning.

Equity markets across Asia are also tumbling this morning with the KOSPI (-1.44%) leading losses followed by the Hang Seng (-1.21%), the Nikkei (-1.14%), the Shanghai Composite (-0.58%) and the CSI (-0.52%). S&P 500 (-0.25%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.35%) futures are also moving lower again as the FOMC message continues to reverberate.

With the Fed out of the way, attention will now turn to the Bank of England, who are announcing their latest policy decision at 12:00 London time. Up until yesterday morning, it had been widely expected that the BoE would deliver another 25bp hike. But we then got a strong downside surprise from the August CPI print, where headline inflation unexpectedly fell to +6.7% (vs. +7.0% expected). So markets are now only pricing in a 46% chance of a rate hike today, and it’s very finely balanced as we approach the decision.

Our own UK economist at DB has also changed his call following the CPI data (link here), and now thinks that the BoE will skip a rate hike at this meeting. He thinks that the CPI print offers the MPC more optionality to pause, and there were also positive signs beyond the headline number. For instance, core CPI fell to +6.2% (vs. +6.8% expected), whilst the closely-watched services CPI rate fell to +6.8% as well. However, he still sees this decision as finely balanced, with the big miss in inflation and weaker growth momentum now in stark contrast to elevated wage growth. The growing chance of a pause has been evident among gilts as well, with 10yr yields experiencing a sharp decline of -13.0bps yesterday. In addition, the 2yr yield (-16.2bps) closed at a 3-month low of 4.82%.

Elsewhere in Europe, markets put in a strong performance ahead of the Fed’s decision, with the STOXX 600 (+0.91%) recovering from its rough start to the week. That was echoed across the major indices, with the DAX (+0.75%), the CAC 40 (+0.67%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.93%) posting solid gains of their own. It was the same story on the bond side too, as yields on 10yr bunds (-3.6bps), OATs (-4.4bps) and BTPs (-6.6bps) moved off their highs from the previous day. All before the FOMC of course.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, German PPI continued to plunge, with the latest reading for August at -12.6% (vs. -12.5% expected). That’s the fastest decline in recorded data back to 1948, although that is down from a record peak one year earlier of almost +46%.

END

2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Equities weaker post-FOMC; DXY firmer, CHF slumps post-SNB & GBP lower pre-BoE – Newsquawk US Market Open

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 06:11 AM

European bourses are pressured as the region reacts to the FOMC, US futures are lower but action is slightly more contained
DXY is off 105.68 best but remains supported, GBP pressured and sub-1.23 ahead of the BoE with pricing still near 50/50
CHF collapses as SNB leaves rates unchanged, SEK pressured on the initial Riksbank announcement before appreciating on FX hedging & NOK benefits from Norges Bank guidance for another hike
Brief move higher on the SNB for EGBs/USTs has dissipated with hawkish FOMC undertones persisting pre-BoE
Commodities pressured in-fitting with the broader risk tone and USD action, TTF hindered further on an Offshore Alliance Woodside update
Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Existing Home Sales & EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), BoE, CBRT & SARB Policy Announcements, ECB’s Lagarde & Schnabel. Supply from the US.

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CENTRAL BANKS

SNB: Policy Rate (Q3 2023) 1.75% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 1.75%); Maintains focus on selling foreign currency; it cannot be ruled out that a further tightening of monetary policy may become necessary. CPI Forecasts: 2024: 2.2% (prev. 2.2%), 2025 2.1% (prev. 1.9%).
SNB Chairman Jordan says we have had nominal overvaluation of the CHF that has contributed to lower inflation in Switzerland.
The unchanged announcement, which defied the 30/37 Reuters poll for a 25bp hike and market pricing ascribing around a 65% chance to such a move, resulted in EUR/CHF lifting from 0.9564 to 0.9650.
Riksbank: 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 3.75%); the forecast for policy rate indicates that it could be raised further; Rate Path Q3-2024 4.10% (prev. 4.05%).
Riksbank reduces the currency risk in foreign exchange reserves. Decided to hedge a part of the FX reserves by selling USD 8bln and EUR 2bln for SEK, and this equates to around 25% of the reserves. From 25th September and complete in four to six months. Measure aimed at limiting losses of the SEK appreciates, does not have a monetary policy purpose.
The policy announcement and in particular the rate forecasts only implying around a 40% chance of further tightening from current levels as of Q3-2024 sparked immediate SEK pressure, with EUR/SEK lifting from 11.8519 to 11.9374 over the course of three minutes. Thereafter, following the separate release on FX hedging, EUR/SEK reversed course and fell from 11.9043 to 11.8802 with the SEK then seeing more pronounced appreciation as EUR/SEK fell to an 11.7582 low when the release got a wider airing.
Norges Bank: 4.25% vs. Exp. 4.25% (Prev. 4.0%); there will likely be one additional policy rate hike, most probably in December. Repo Path: end-2023 4.31% (prev. 4.21%), Q1-2024 4.44% (prev. 4.21%), Q2-2024 4.44% (prev. 4.18%), end-2024 4.33% (prev. 3.98%). NOK has appreciated, somewhat stronger than projected in the June report.
The announcement and more pertinently guidance via the statement and repo path for one more hike sparked NOK appreciation, with EUR/NOK falling from 11.5250 to 11.4578 before then paring back towards 11.4950 over the course of 10 minutes.
ECB’s Nagel says not clear if rates have peaked; EZ core inflation is still stubborn and the inflation rate is not falling at the desired rate.
ECB’s Kazaks says rates will need to remain restrictive for quite a while; will take decisions meeting by meeting; quite satisfied where rates stand now. Recent energy price rises are structural and not a short-term transitory rise. APP sales and the end of PEPP reinvestment should be discussed before rate cuts. Given the current outlook, mid-2024 rate cut expectations are too early.
Brazil Central Bank cut the Selic rate by 50bps to 12.75%, as expected, while it stated that committee members unanimously anticipate further reductions of the same magnitude in the next meetings and the pace of rate cuts is appropriate to keep monetary policy contractionary for the process of disinflation. BCB also stated that the total magnitude of the easing cycle will depend on inflation dynamics, expectations and projections, output gap and balance of risks.
HKMA maintained its rate unchanged at 5.75%, as expected.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses are pressured as the region reacts to Wednesday’s FOMC where a hawkish hold was delivered, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.1%.
Action which continues the tone of APAC trade but with the region conscious of a Chinese cabinet pledge around manufacturing and also beginning to look ahead to Friday’s BoJ.
Sectors are primarily in the red with the exception of Retail post-earnings from JD Sports and Next which reside towards the top of the Stoxx 600; Travel/Leisure and Basic Resources lag, latter on benchmark activity and numerous price target cuts.
US futures are lower across the board but with action slightly more contained when compared to European peers, ES -0.4%, NQ -0.6%; today’s docket has a handful of data points before Friday’s Fed speak resumption with Cook, Daly & Kashkari.
Google (GOOG) reportedly wants to ditch Broadcom (AVGO) as its TPU sever chip supplier to reduce AI costs, according to The Information; Since last year has been working to replace Broadcom with Marvell Technology (MRVL). Pre-market: GOOG -0.7%, AVGO -5.2%, MRVL +3.5%
Click here for more detail.

FX

The Fed revives Greenback fortunes via more hawkish dot plots, DXY firmly back above 105.000 within a 105.400-680 range.
Franc collapses as SNB defies expectations for a 25bp hike and bases new forecasts on steady 1.75% rate, EUR/CHF and USD/CHF spike circa 100 pips to 0.9677 and 0.9078 respectively.
Pound flounders in the dark about BoE prospects for midday as markets remain split between pause and 1/4 point rate rise, Cable sub-1.2300 from just over 1.2350 at best.
Yen and Euro pare declines vs. Dollar ahead of 148.50 and 1.0600, with EUR/USD propped up by a Fib and option expiries.
Norwegian Crown underpinned around 11.5000 vs. Euro after hawkish Norges Bank hike, Swedish Krona choppy on either side of 11.9000 as Riksbank reaches a peak and hedges 25% FX reserves.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1730 vs exp. 7.3052 (prev. 7.1732)
The European Commission has sent a letter to Poland listing 11 questions to determine the scope of the visa-for-bribes scandal and the EU security impact, via Politico; the letter warns that Poland could be violating EU law
Click here for more detail.
Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

Bonds off worst levels, but still heavy in wake of hawkish FOMC and through slew of other Central Bank pronouncements.
Bunds below par between 129.69-23 parameters, Gilts sub-96.00 within 96.41-95.81 range and T-note nearer base of 108-16/25+ bounds pre-BoE, IJC, Philly Fed and ECB speakers
Click here for more detail.

COMMODITIES

Crude benchmarks are softer intraday given broader risk sentiment post-Fed, WTI below USD 89.00/bbl and Brent down to a test of USD 92.00/bbl respectively at worst; currently off these lows.
Dutch TTF pressured as Offshore Alliance members at Woodside have overwhelmingly voted to endorse a deal with the company.
Spot gold is under modest pressure as the USD remains bid with base metals similarly pressured on the broader risk tone.
Saudi Crown Prince MBS responded that output reductions are purely based on supply and demand to the market when asked about criticism that oil output cuts help Russia.
Australian industrial arbitrator said Chevron (CVX) and unions are on the precipice of achieving the first enterprise agreements for LNG facilities and discussions have resulted in widespread agreement on the majority of provisions of proposals. The arbitrator made recommendations on pay and working conditions for Chevron and unions to consider but noted that a failure to settle all outstanding issues would result in the agreed provisions simply evaporating, while parties are required to advise the commission of their acceptance or rejection of recommendations by 09:00 Sydney time on Friday.
Offshore Alliance members at Woodside (WDS AT) have overwhelmingly voted to endorse a deal with the company while members at Chevron (CVX) will meet tonight to consider a recommendation made by the Fair Work Commission, according to a statement.
Natural Gas Pipeline Co. declared a force majeure on the M&M line near compressor station 158 located in Dewey County, Oklahoma.
Russia is mulling an additional tax on exports for some commodities including metals, according to sources cited by Reuters.
Click here for more detail.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

US House Speaker McCarthy said the House will vote on a defence appropriations rule on Thursday and he has the support from two of the five Republicans who opposed the measure on Tuesday. McCarthy added that House Republicans are very close to an agreement on a short-term stopgap bill and are expected to begin moving forward on other appropriations bills after defence, according to Reuters.
Republican Lawmakers are opposed to the latest Ukraine aid package proposed by US President Biden according to a letter seen by WSJ
Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

GEOPOLITICS

Russian Foreign Ministry said NATO drills near Russian borders are increasingly provocative and aggressive in nature, as well increase risks of incidents, according to RIA.
Saudi Arabia said solving the Palestinian issue is critical to a deal with Israel, according to FT. In relevant news, Saudi Crown Prince MBS said he is prepared to work with whoever is leading Israel if there is a breakthrough in negotiations for normalisation with Israel, while he had also commented that Saudis will get a nuclear weapon if Iran does first, according to AFP and Fox News.
Iranian President Raisi said Iran has no problem with IAEA inspections of its nuclear sites.
Qatar held separate bilateral meetings with the US and Iran this week, touching on nuclear and drone issues, according to sources cited by Reuters.
Kuwait’s PM said the Iraqi ruling on regulating navigation in Khor Abdullah Waterway includes historical fallacies and Iraq needs to take concrete, decisive and urgent measures to address the ruling, according to Reuters.
Nagorno-Karabakh ethnic Armenians say Azerbaijani forces have violated the ceasefire; Azerbaijan denies its forces violated the ceasefire.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin is softer and has been slipping further below the USD 27k mark in European trade as the USD retains the bulk of yesterday’s marked upside.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks were pressured in the aftermath of the FOMC’s hawkish pause.
ASX 200 was lower with the top-weighted financial industry leading the broad declines.
Nikkei 225 retreated below the 33,000 level as Japanese yields climbed to decade highs and with the BoJ kickstarting its 2-day policy meeting.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined alongside the downbeat mood across regional peers, although the losses in the mainland were initially cushioned following the Chinese Cabinet’s pledge to speed up the development of the advanced manufacturing sector and amid resilience in developers after Guangzhou adjust purchase rules for several districts.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

Japanese PM Kishida said he will instruct people to pull together the pillars of an economic package early next week, while they will include measures to counter inflation and social measures to counter declining population, according to Reuters.
Chinese Commerce Ministry says some firms have obtained export licenses for gallium and germanium; willing to seek a basket of solutions for the Australian wine dispute.
China’s 2023 nat gas demand seen at 396.4BCM, +8% Y, via CNOOC; LNG imports 70.79mln/T, +10.9% YY. Nat gas demand from China seen peaking in 2040 at 700BCM.

DATA RECAP

New Zealand GDP QQ (Q2) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -0.1%); YY (Q2) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. 2.2%)

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

//NORTH KOREA/CHINA/RUSSIA

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN

3 CHINA /

CHINA/

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

BANK OF ENGLAND

Bank of England surprises the markets by not raising its rates and they kept their interest rate at 5.25%. Seems that the world is done raising rates. The pound plummets.

(zerohedge)

BOE Surprises Markets By Keeping Rates Unchanged For The First Time In Two Years

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 07:23 AM

One day after the Fed kept rates unchanged in what multiple banks said cemented the end of the Fed’s hiking cycle, and just a few hours after the Swiss franc tumbled when the SNB unexpectedly also kept rates unchanged at 1.75% against expectations of a rate hike to 2%, moments ago the Bank of England made it three for three, when it surprised markets by leaving the key policy rate unchanged at 5.25% after nearly two years of hikes, disappointing economists who were as looking for a 25bps rate hike to 5.50%, after a razor-edge vote that put an end to the most aggressive cycle of interest-rate rises in more than three decades amid falling inflation and mounting fears of recession.

Following weaker than expected inflation data in August, five members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to leave rates unchanged and four wanted to raise them to 5.5%. Governor Andrew Bailey, who had the casting vote, chose to hold.

The decision to keep rates unchanged was the first pause after 14 consecutive rate rises since the tightening cycle started in December 2021.

The Committee indicated that it now wanted to leave interest rates at 5.25% for some time to ensure that it still brought inflation back down to the BoE’s 2 per cent target.

The BOE also stepped up the pace of quantitative tightening as it seeks to reduce the size of its balance sheet as quickly as possible to provide headroom for potential future financial stability interventions. Over the 12 months form October, it plans to reduce its gilt portfolio by £100 billion to £658 billion. Last year, it unwound £80 billion. That implies £50 billion of active gilt sales on top of the £50 billion of maturing assets. The gilt portfolio peaked in 2022 at £875 billion.

Here are the highlights from the BoE statement, courtesy of Newsquawk:

VOTE:

4 voted for hike (exp. 8). 5 voted for unchanged (exp. 1)
Bailey, Broadbent. Dhingra, Ramsden, Pill voted to hold rates
Cunliffe, Greene. Haskel, Mann voted to raise rates

MOTIVATION:

Majority cited loosening labor market, August CPI data, falling business sentiment
Minority saw persistent inflation pressure, and August fall in CPI likely to be short-lived
One member sees growing risks falling output will require sharper rate cuts

INFLATION:

Inflation has fallen a lot in recent months, will continue to do so
Policy will be sufficiently restrictive to get inflation back to target
Inflation seen falling significantly in near-term despite rising oil prices
Services inflation set to remain elevated

ECONOMY:

Says GDP growth is now seen at 0.1% in 03 (prev. saw *0.4%)
Underlying growth in H2 likely weakened by more than forecast

GUIDANCE:

Says further tightening would be needed if evidence of more persistent inflation pressures is seen.

BALANCE SHEET:

The BOE would reduce the stock of gilts by GBP 100BN in 12-months starting October
Will continue to sell Gilts evenly across short-, medium-, and long-buckets
In Q4, will hold four Gilt auctions in each sector, at planned GBP 670mln size

According to UBS, the opening section of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Statement is basically the same as Chief Economist, Huw Pill’s South Africa speech he gave last month. Unchanged rates at 5.25% with inflation back to target by Q2 2025, then it is expected to fall below target as economic slack grows. In other words, the BoE has pivoted from its prior fears of an economy that’s much too tight to one that’s going to end up looking loose.

The BoE has almost dismissed the recent strong wage data, saying average weekly earnings growth was reported as 8.1% in July, but that was “difficult to reconcile with other indicators of pay growth. Most of these have tended to be more stable at rates of growth that are elevated but not quite as high as the average weekly earnings (AWE) series.”

Normally central banks place a very great weight on wage growth as a forward indicator, but in the UK’s case, the bank is mistrustful of the data it’s being supplied. It’s not often that a central bank will openly and publicly question the accuracy of official data, but in the case of wages, the BoE has done so. It noted that official data for average weekly earnings pointed to wage growth around 8%, but its own agents surveys were around 6 to 6.5%. Indeed it also said the official ONS data couldn’t be reconciled with what the HMRC payrolls data showed. Wage growth remains elevated, but the BoE is willing to accept survey evidence that it is slowing.

As Bloomberg notes, the decision will come as a relief to millions of households facing the threat of even higher mortgage costs and indebted businesses. It will also be welcomed by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has promised to ease the inflation crisis and improve living standards ahead of an election expected next year.

The BOE, however, signaled that policy was only on pause and it would respond if inflation, which remains more than three times above the 2% target, doesn’t fall as expected. The MPC forecasts consumer-price inflation to hit the target in the second quarter of 2025.

“Inflation has fallen a lot in recent months and we think it will continue to do so,” Bailey said in a written statement. “That’s welcome news. But there is no room for complacency. We need to be sure inflation returns to normal and we will continue to take the decisions necessary to do just that.”

Ahead of the decision, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt told Bailey in a letter than the MPC has his full support. “The tough action taken by the MPC to squeeze inflation out of the system is working,” Hunt said, adding that the government needed to show fiscal discipline to bolster the bank’s actions.

Repeating its former guidance, the committee said rates would be “sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long” and “further tightening in monetary policy would be required if there were evidence of more persistent pressures.” Like other major central banks, the implication is that rates would remain high for longer.

“Today’s decision to keep the base rate unchanged will be welcomed by companies already struggling to meet interest obligations,” said Nils Kuhlwein, partner at management consulting firm Kearney. “Successive base rate jumps over recent years have turned the screw on these companies.”

The MPC has been laying the ground to pause policy as the UK’s economic outlook darkened in recent weeks. Bailey said this month that rates were “much nearer now to the top of the cycle” and Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe said the bank was close to a turning point.

The MPC expressed concerns that the economy was stalling after output in July contracted 0.5%, a sharper fall than expected, and official figures showed unemployment rising and job vacancies dropping. The committee also noted that business activity data is contracting, while raising questions about official measures that show wage growth is accelerating.

The BOE cut its GDP growth forecast for the third quarter to 0.1% from 0.4%, the minutes showed. Underlying growth in the second half of 2023 is also likely to be weaker than the 0.25% expected in August.

The bank said past rate hikes were having an impact: “There are increasing signs of some impact of tighter monetary policy on the labor market and on momentum in the real economy more general.”

As the economy slows, inflation was expected to drop below 2% “in the medium term.” In the short term, the bank expects a “significant” fall in inflation “despite the renewed upward pressure from oil prices” due to declining energy and goods inflation.

Higher rates have been punishing homeowners, who face a £15 billion repayment crunch, according to the Resolution Foundation, much of which has yet to come through. Several MPC members have been warning that policy lags mean the BOE was already at risk of overtightening.

Swati Dhingra, an external member has been voting to hold since December last year. She was joined by Bailey, Deputy Governors Ben Broadbent and Dave Ramsden and Chief Economist Huw Pill. Cunliffe and external members Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Jonathan Haskel voted to raise rates by a quarter point to 5.5%.

Other central banks are signalling that cycle is over, too. The ECB raised rates to 4% last week and said “sufficient contributions” had been made to return inflation to target. The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday held rates in the 5.25%-5.5% range, but did suggest further increases were on the cards and ruled out any imminent rate cuts.

Markets were split before the vote, betting on a roughly 50% chance of a vote to hold, after a surprise fall in August inflation to 6.7% this week. Investors still expect one more quarter-point increase although Goldman Sachs and Nomura reckon rates have now peaked.

The pound extended losses to the lowest since March as traders trimmed bets on further interest-rate hikes.

The market is pricing in around 18 basis points of more tightening compared to a full quarter-point before the decision.

end

ITALY/EU

The EU’s conservative wing angry at Meloni’s handling of the migrant influx at Lampedusa

(zerohedge)

EU’s Conservative Leaders Blast Meloni’s “Betrayal, Cowardice” Amid Lampedusa Migrant Invasion

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 02:45 AM

The European Right is calling out Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni for what they call a betrayal and U-turn on migration at this key moment that the southern Italian island of Lampedusa is being overwhelmed with well over 6,000 migrants, the bulk of which flooded the tiny outpost on a single day last week.

For example, Matteo Salvini and France’s Marine Le Pen, who leads the National Rally’s parliamentary faction, have blasted Meloni for her handling of the crisis, or rather for being missing in action at this pivotal moment.

“(There is) trouble, trouble for those leaders who don’t realize there are signs of alarm and danger from the massive arrival of migrants on Lampedusa,” Le Pen said at a rally this week. “An island of 6,000 people, where more than 6,000 migrants arrived in a single day — trouble for the population in which the leaders don’t take action immediately to face this giant challenge.”

The AP called it a direct “swipe” at Meloni, even though she wasn’t mentioned by name. Le Pen went so far as to say these same leaders “justify their cowardice by claiming there is no alternative.”

She added that European parties must defend “our people, as Matteo (Salvini) did so brilliantly with courage and pugnacity when he had the power to do so (…) by dramatically reducing the number of migrants.”

Some officials in Italy and across Europe have questioned why Meloni hasn’t gone to the overwhelmed tiny island of Lampedusa in person, or else why she’s not taking a more direct and active role in solving the crisis while enacting more aggressive preventative measures.

Instead, Europe is debating the 10-point plan offered by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, but so far it doesn’t look like it will get off the ground…

Poland rejects EU’s proposals to transfer migrants from the Mediterranean island of Lampedusa across member states, a minister said on Wednesday.

“Nobody can force us to do this. We will act in such a way as not to accept immigrants. The EU is preparing to introduce such coercion. That is why we are holding a referendum so that Poles can have their say,” Maciej Wasik, a deputy interior minister, told Polish Radio.

The public vote on migration and three other issues, and parliamentary elections in Poland are scheduled for Oct. 15.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s 10-point plan for Lampedusa includes, among other pledges, supporting the transfer of migrants to other EU member states, and returning them to their countries of origin.

Polish officials when asked how many migrants from Lampedusa Poland is ready to accept have replied: “None.”

Meanwhile, there are persistent stories and reports of more boats having arrived…

And already the island’s very limited holding facilities for migrants, with merely some 400 beds, have long been overwhelmed. Simple food, housing, and logistical infrastructure is in extremely short supply – and footage of migrants roaming the streets or packed along roadside facilities continues to emerge.

END

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

UKRAINE/RUSSIA/NATO/POLAND

Huge news! and this will change the face of the war; Poland, one of Ukraine’s best allies in the war does an about face and will no longer arm Ukraine. Six other EU nations continue to have an embargo on Ukraine grain

(zerohedge)

NATO Fractures: In U-Turn, Poland Announces It Will No Longer Arm Ukraine

WEDNESDAY, SEP 20, 2023 – 09:00 PM

The dam is breaking on unified Western support for Ukraine, and the timing couldn’t be worse for Zelensky, given tomorrow he’s expected to meet with President Biden at the White House. On Wednesday evening there is monumental news out of Poland which could potentially change the entire course of the war.

“Poland will no longer arm Ukraine to focus on its own defense,” Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced just hours after Warsaw summoned Ukraine’s ambassador related to a fresh war of words and spat over blocked grain, according to the AFP. Warsaw has throughout more than a year-and-a-half of the Ukraine-Russia war been Kiev’s staunchest and most outspoken supporter.

Will this massive and hugely significant about-face mark the beginning of the end? Are peace negotiations and ceding of territory in the Donbas inevitable at this point?

Within the last 48 hours relations between Poland and Ukraine quickly spiraled to their lowest point since the Russian invasion, and it is directly related to Warsaw leading a handful of EU countries to extend a grain export ban on Ukraine, amid continuing anger and outrage from Polish farmers who are suffering due to their country being flooded with cheap Ukrainian wheat.

Crucially, Poland will hold parliamentary elections on Oct.15. The prior atmosphere of enthusiastic pro-Kiev rhetoric has drastically changed, now with comparisons likening Ukraine to a “drowning man”. As The Associated Press explains:

Polish leaders have compared Ukraine to a drowning person hurting his helper and threatened to expand a ban on food products from the war-torn country. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested that EU allies that are prohibiting imports of his nation’s grain are helping Russia.

Now, Polish officials, who are trying to win parliamentary elections next month with help from farmers’ votes, are expressing dismay over some of Ukraine’s latest moves, including a World Trade Organization complaint over bans on Ukrainian grain from Poland and two other EU countries.

Poland’s elections are Oct. 15… https://t.co/DRwG37xGut— Mark MacKinnon (@markmackinnon) September 20, 2023

In surprisingly blunt and terse words given to reporters on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Polish President Andrzej Duda said on Tuesday: “Ukraine is behaving like a drowning person clinging to anything available.”

He then said, “A drowning person is extremely dangerous, capable of pulling you down to the depths … simply drown the rescuer.” Given Ukraine’s battlefield losses and as it’s currently bogged down in a failing counteroffensive, the words no doubt stung. But as The Hill notes further of the domestic political context in Poland:

Public sentiment around the issue, however, has started to deteriorate, putting the ruling party in a difficult position ahead of a close October election. The far-right Confederation party is hoping to capitalize on the waning support in the country.

Reuters reported that a recent poll showed support for Ukrainian refugees fell from 91 percent when the war started to just 69 percent recently. The same survey showed a quarter of Poles are against supporting refugees, compared to 4 percent in early 2022.

In response to the grain ban, Zelensky during his UN speech had condemned the “alarming” behavior of allies regarding the import ban, but without naming Poland specifically. Further, Kiev has announced plans to sue Warsaw in the World Trade Organization while also holding out the possibility of its own embargo on Polish foodstuffs, including onions, tomatoes, cabbage, and apples. Again, all of this amounts to a full-blown diplomatic crisis for Zelensky which couldn’t come at a worse time, as he’s in D.C.

To review, these are some of the major developments and setbacks in only the last few days:

Zelensky fired at least 6 top-ranking defense officials over corruption, after recently firing longtime Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov amid a graft probe.
American transgender spokesperson for Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces Sarah Ashton-Cirillo was suspended indefinitely by the Ukrainian military in an embarrassing debacle.
The New York Times ran an article which said a missile fired by Ukraine – not Russia – struck a busy civilian market …marking an unexpected establishment media about-face.
Biden has yet to pledge any new weapons for Ukraine as Zelensky is in the US, and there are reports that ATACMS long-range missiles will not be approved.

And most importantly, there’s this per Politico…

New: Senators are bracing to give Zelenskyy some tough news tomorrow

That in the face of GOP opposition to aid — and a guv shutdown — they might be sending him home empty handed

W/ @burgessev https://t.co/tBolo3TcMX— Ursula Perano (@UrsulaPerano) September 20, 2023

According to the fresh Wednesday report:

Delivering any new aid to help defend against Russia, even later this year, is looking tougher than ever.

The obstacles are piling up: House Republicans are skeptical of any new money at all. What’s more, their dysfunction threatens to push the government into a shutdown — a move that certainly gets Zelenskyy no closer to getting the billions requested by the Biden administration. Senate Republicans, meanwhile, are divided over whether to continue providing humanitarian aid, arguing the rest of Europe needs to step up.

As if fully aware that the tap at the expense of the US taxpayer may run dry, Zelensky has been meeting in New York with a who’s who of leading banks, hedge funds, and private investors. Fox Business, which broke the story, says the ongoing meetings are part of broader efforts to secure investment for rebuilding Ukraine and fixing destroyed infrastructure:

The meeting was put together by JPMorgan, the big bank serving as Zelenskyy’s financial adviser to attract private capital for a new investment fund to rebuild Ukraine’s infrastructure destroyed in its war with Russia, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Earlier in the afternoon, Zelenskyy met privately with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, the sources say. BlackRock is the world’s largest asset manager and has also been advising Zelenskyy on how to attract U.S. private sector money for the rebuilding effort.

The list of invitees, according to sources, includes William Ackman, the head of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital; Ken Griffin of the Citadel investment empire; Jonathan Gray, president and chief operating officer of private equity powerhouse Blackstone; Philipp Hildebrand, a vice chairman at BlackRock; Michael Bloomberg, former New York City mayor and founder of Bloomberg LP; and Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google and now head of the Schmidt Futures, a philanthropic organization.

Ken Griffin and Bill Ackman meeting with Zelensky to ensure they get first dibs on the juiciest deals in the rebuilding of #Ukraine post war.— CEO Technician (@CEOTechnician) September 20, 2023

Tomorrow’s White House visit, and Zelensky’s planned meeting with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will surely be interesting.

Meanwhile, for a foretaste and indicator of how much the tide is turning – and the very different, subdued optics – especially compared to Zelensky’s last trip to Washington (in Dec. 2022) when he was received with rockstar status, there’s this…

Speaker Kevin McCarthy, facing a right-wing rebellion in his ranks and mounting GOP resistance to aiding Ukraine, has declined to convene a forum for President Volodymyr Zelensky to address members of the House on Thursday during a visit to Capitol Hill. https://t.co/mDEH1yGpJS— The New York Times (@nytimes) September 20, 2023

END

SYRIA

Gatestone provides an in depth look at the deteriorating conditions inside Syria and the fact that they are on the verge of collapse

(Gatestone)

Syria On The Verge Of Collapse?

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi via the Gatestone Institute,

Syria is clearly on the verge of collapse in terms of the economy and humanitarian situation.

The country’s southern province of al-Suwayda’, whose population primarily comes from the Druze minority, is currently witnessing protests on an unprecedented scale. While the province has previously seen protests motivated primarily by the country’s deteriorating economic and livelihood situation, these protests are now far more widespread in the province and larger in scale.

There has also been a definite paradigm shift in these protests: the main initial demands to improve the economy and livelihood situation were endorsed by the Druze community’s three leading religious authorities in Syria. Calls for the government to resign, for the departure of President Bashar al-Assad and a political transition are now stronger and more prevalent. In multiple localities in the province, which has formally been under government control since the start of the unrest and civil war in 2011, demonstrators have closed the Ba’ath Party headquarters and removed portraits of Assad and his father, Hafez al-Assad.

While these protests are in themselves remarkable for the province in terms of the numbers participating, their persistence and how open the calls for political change are, they do raise the question about whether they constitute the potential for a real shift in Syria’s “status quo” since spring 2020. However much one might sympathise with the protests, they are probably unlikely to shift the situation in a significant way. The protestors, although immensely courageous, are too few, and have little leverage.

The current status quo means that Syria is effectively divided into three major zones: the majority of the country that is held by the Damascus-based government backed by Russia and Iran; the northeast held by the American-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (the second-largest zone of control); and parts of the northwest and north of the country on and near the border with Turkey, controlled by an assortment of insurgent factions that are backed by Turkey to varying degrees. What has kept the frontlines frozen since the spring of 2020 are the understandings between the main foreign powers involved in the war as well as policies of deterrence through the stationing of foreign troops in these zones of control. The most important in this regard seems to be the Turkey-Russia dynamic, whereas American influence is far more limited.

At the same time, all the major zones have been seeing low-level skirmishes along their frontlines and experiencing internal security concerns. The Syrian Democratic Forces, for example, which are dominated by Kurdish cadres linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party, are contending with an ongoing Islamic State insurgency and more recently have had to deal with an uprising among Arab tribal elements in the east. In a similar vein, the southern province of Deraa, which is next to al-Suwayda’ and formally came back in its entirety under Syrian government control in 2018, sees regular incidents of assassinations and bomb attacks, some of which can be attributed to Islamic State, while others, in terms of responsibility, remain murky.

For the Syrian government, however, it is not the military frontlines and internal security that are the main issue today, but rather the deterioration of its economy and the accompanying fall in standards of living. The clearest indication of this decline is the fall in the value of the Syrian pound. Since the onset of the war, it had been steadily falling, but took a sharp turn for the worse in late 2019. This steep decline has continued despite some brief hiatuses; the currency now stands at record low values versus the U.S. dollar. In 2010, the rate of exchange was around 50 Syrian pounds to the dollar, now the rate of exchange is hovering near 15,000 Syrian pounds to the dollar.

There is much debate about the causes of this downturn, but it seems clear that the decline can be attributed in significant part to the Syrian government’s economic isolation and its shortage of hard currency. Despite controlling the country’s most important cities and the sole access to the Mediterranean Sea along the northwest coastline, the government faces extensive Western economic sanctions; it does not benefit from the main oil assets held by the Syrian Democratic Forces and sees only marginal trade over the land border with neighbouring Jordan to the south. The Syrian government also has extremely little control over its extensive northern border with Turkey, which could be a major trading partner with the government.

The Syrian government’s isolation has also meant that its economy became ever more intertwined with that of neighbouring Lebanon, which is also facing its most severe economic crisis since the end of the Lebanese civil war in 1990 and has also seen a sharp decline in the value of its currency.

In the meantime, the Syrian government has no real solutions to its economic woes. It has been offering up measures such as increasing the salaries of state employees, military personnel and pensioners while also cutting fuel subsidies. While the normalisation of relations between Arab states and Syria (foremost embodied in Syria’s return to the Arab League) has attracted considerable media attention, it is probably unrealistic to expect that this development will lead to a sudden turn-around in the Syrian government’s economic fortunes. The government is not going to be given handouts of billions of dollars in aid and foreign investment from Arab states or the international community at large in a short timeframe and for nothing in return from Damascus. In the meantime, any concept of normalisation with Turkey still has a long way to go, with a fundamental sticking point: that the Damascus-based government would like Turkey to agree to withdraw troops from Syrian territory, whereas Turkey appears to have no interest in doing so in the near- or even medium-term.

Few within government-held areas would deny that the economic and livelihood situation is difficult. It is common to see people there venting their frustrations on Facebook about the quality of services provided, the rising prices of goods, perceptions of corruption, and so on. Yet opinions about the causes of these woes are varied. Some blame the Western economic sanctions on Syria, others see the economic problems as created from within. Some impugn government corruption but consider criticism of Assad himself to be a red line: they seem to think that he is doing all he can to try to help the country — while being surrounded by corrupt officials. Unfortunately, trying to determine what proportion of people subscribe to which views is virtually impossible: no reliable polling data exist, and it is doubtful anyone could conduct such surveys under the present circumstances.

Yet qualitatively speaking, it can be said that in al-Suwayda’, criticism of Assad is less of a red line than in other areas that have remained under government control throughout the war. Besides the current deterioration of both the economy and living standards, there has long been resentment of a perceived marginalisation of the southern province in economic and developmental terms. In addition, there are grievances against conscription; conspiracy theories that the government colluded with the Islamic State to allow the group, in 2018, to attack the eastern countryside of the province while killing hundreds of Druze in the process; complaints about the spread of drugs in al-Suwayda’ and the use of the province as a gateway for smuggling them into Jordan. The government’s most recent economic decisions to raise salaries of state employees, military personnel and pensioners while cutting fuel subsidies provided a spark for protests in the province that are even larger than before.

It is nonetheless important to be realistic about what these protests can achieve. The protestors remain committed for now to sustaining a civil disobedience movement that is peaceful. There appears to be no plan to launch an armed rebellion and make the province a separate rebellious enclave akin to the Turkish-backed enclaves in the northwest. Moreover, the Syrian government is adopting a non-confrontational stance towards the protests. The government seems to have issued general directives to its security forces in the province to lie low and avoid opening fire or taking any repressive measures unless they are attacked.

In effect, these protests remain a peripheral rebellion in the grander scheme of things and are unlikely by themselves to bring down the government and lead to real change. There are really only two ways in which Assad can be brought down: either being militarily overthrown (not being contemplated by any international power) or if the elites propping up his rule decide that his presidency is no longer worth preserving. Despite the deterioration of Syria’s economy and living standards, it seems that those closest to Assad who could bring about his removal from within are either largely unaffected by the situation or possibly even benefitting from it.

To stand some sort of chance of realising change, the al-Suwayda’ protests would have to transform into a large-scale movement of protests and unrest across government-held Syria, including in areas such as the capital Damascus and the coastal regions that have served as key constituencies of support for the government throughout the war.

In turn, these protests raise the question about the efficacy of the ongoing Western sanctions on the Syrian government. A more optimistic portrayal would see the protests as bringing about the precise results intended by the sanctions: a deterioration in the economy and living standards, popular discontent with that deterioration, unrest, and thus some sort of pressure that would lead the government to agree to a peaceful political transition. Yet it is unlikely that these sanctions will accomplish those results. Instead, one finds an immiserated population that is unable to do much to better its own lot, with outbreaks of ultimately ineffectual protests, the continued outflow of people from Syria seeking to migrate to other countries in the region and Europe, and the persistence of the country’s division between its major zones of control.

A greater focus on stemming the country’s collapse in terms of the humanitarian situation could certainly help — if “middlemen” were left out. The United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) now faces a much larger shortfall in terms of funding requirements and actual funding for WFP’s operations in Syria, with the result that monthly assistance was cut to 2.5 million people in Syria in July. An important reason behind this reduction, according to the Syria Report, is a reduction in the American contribution to WFP’s global budget. Making up for that shortfall would at least provide some short-term relief.

Sanctions – no doubt well-intended to prevent governments from brutalizing their own people even further and to encourage the leadership toward a democratic form of rule – seem simply not to work. First, it is harder for a people who are starving to rise up against a dictatorship; they are often too busy looking for food and trying to survive on a daily basis, besides having an understandable fear of reprisals. Countries such as Russia and Iran, as we well know, find ways around sanctions; or else the population starves, while the leaders go on living in indifferent comfort.

Perhaps a more realistic approach might be as follows: rather than tying sanctions to vague hopes of political transition, sanctions could instead be linked to more specific concessions such as serious efforts to combat drug trafficking, the release of political prisoners, and so on.

Otherwise, sanctions often deliver just a punitive message, which, although understandable for dictators such as Assad, does not really accomplish anything in terms of accountability, change or bettering the lot of Syrians like the protestors in al-Suwayda’.

Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi is an Arabic translator and editor at Castlereagh Associates (a Middle East-focused consultancy), a writing fellow at the Middle East Forum, and an associate of the Royal Schools of Music. Follow on Twitter and at his independent Substack newsletter.

Follow Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi on Twitter

UKRAINE/RUSSIA/

ROBERT H TO US:

Rabotino, a place of skulls: The Russians turned the settlement into a second “Bahmut” – The magnitude of the destruction of the Ukrainian Brigades is shocking – WarNews247

Crazy …. Simple slaughter …

https://warnews247.gr/kraniou-topos-to-rabotino-oi-rosoi-metetrepsan-ton-oikismo-se-deftero-bachmout-ktypontas-sklira-tin-71i-taxiarchia-ton-oukranon/

END

IRAN/SAUDI ARABIA/ISRAEL

This is interesting: If Iran gets a nuclear weapon, then Saudi Arabia will seek one.

(zerohedge)

We Will Get Nuclear Weapon If Iran Does, Saudi Crown Prince Tells Fox

WEDNESDAY, SEP 20, 2023 – 06:40 PM

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) said in an exclusive Fox News interview published Wednesday that Saudi Arabia will obtain a nuclear weapon if its number one regional rival does so first.

“If they get one, we have to get one,” MbS told Fox’s ‘Special Report’ anchor Bret Baier when asked what the kingdom would do if Iran builds a nuclear weapon.

It marks Riyadh’s clearest warning to date related to Iran’s alleged nuclear aspirations (though Tehran has long maintained its nuclear program is solely for peaceful nuclear energy purposes).

The blunt statements regarding Saudi Arabia’s intentions to go nuclear if the Islamic Republic does were set against a broader discussion about potentially achieving full peace and diplomatic relations with Israel on the basis of the Abraham Accords.

“Every day we get closer,” the crown prince said when asked about the recent expanding ties with Israel, which has lately included opening up airspace to Israeli flights for the first time, and exchanging official delegations.

Interestingly, Israel itself is already the region’s sole nuclear-armed power, but has never confirmed this openly. MbS’ comments on going nuclear reflect the general thinking that Tehran achieving a nuke would set off a broader nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

Despite the tough words of warning from the crown prince, China this summer brokered a detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which Beijing hopes will drive a “wave of reconciliation” in the region, particularly along the historic Shia-Sunni religious divide.

As for the potential of full diplomatic relations with Israel, it’s been widely reported that Riyadh is asking Washington to allow it to have a nuclear energy program, which would see the Saudis enrich uranium, just like the Iranians currently do.

END

6.GLOBAL ISSUES AND VACCINE/COVID ISSUES

end

GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES

Word is getting out that the Wuhan lab leak started the COVID 19 epidemic

(zerohedge)

Biden HHS Hits Wuhan Lab With 10-Year Funding Ban Amid Mounting Evidence Of Leak

WEDNESDAY, SEP 20, 2023 – 08:40 PM

The Biden administration’s Department of Health and Human Services announced on Wednesday that it has officially banned the Wuhan Institute of Virology from receiving US funding for a decade, based on mounting evidence that it was ground zero for the Covid-19 pandemic.

On Tuesday, Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra sent a letter to WIV Director Genera, Dr. Yanyi Wang, to inform her that the lab – which Dr. Anthony Fauci offshored risky gain-of-function research to, would no longer be funded by US grants until July 16, 2033, the NY Post reports.

The letter notes that attempts had been made to contact the lab via fax, email and mail about HHS’s decision to suspend funding in July, but no WIV officials had contested the designation or even responded to the agency.

In that earlier missive, the NIH said it found the Wuhan Institute of Virology had “conducted an experiment yielding a level of viral activity which was greater than permitted under the terms of the grant,” which was for the study of bat coronaviruses.

Other requests for the Chinese research institution’s lab findings had also been ignored after NIH made requests for them on Nov. 5, 2021, and Jan. 6, 2022. -NY Post

“WIV has not acknowledged the violations, has not cooperated with the Government to address the violations, has not accepted responsibility for the violations, and, therefore, presumably has taken no action to eliminate the risk to the Government in conducting business transactions with WIV presently or into the future,” the letter reads.

On Wednesday, the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus released a redacted copy of the letter, calling it an “obvious step in the right direction.”

“This is especially timely as mounting evidence and intelligence continue to suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic originated from a laboratory failure in Wuhan,” said Wenstrup, a Republican from Ohio. “Rewarding the likely source of a global pandemic with American resources will only lead to more future health risks.”

“Further, the Select Subcommittee recently revealed that prominent public health authorities — including Dr. Anthony Fauci — knew about the risky laboratory conditions in Wuhan prior to the spread of COVID-19 worldwide,” he added.

“Covering up for the failures of a Chinese lab, hiding critical evidence from the American people, and facilitating the public promotion of a false, alternative narrative is extremely concerning and deserves thorough investigation.”

Recall that Fauci – who offshored banned gain-of-function research to make bat coronaviruses more transmissible to humans – was accused by Congressional investigators of having ‘prompted‘ the fabrication of a paper by a cadre of scientists aimed at disproving the Covid-19 lab-leak theory.

As the Post further notes, US taxpayers paid more than $2.1 million in grant funding via the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the US Agency for International Development (USAID) between 2014 and 2021. Over $1.4 million of this went to WIV via EcoHealth Alliance.

US intelligence agencies have issued conflicting reports about the origins of the COVID pandemic, with the FBI being the first to declare a lab leak the most likely explanation for the pandemic.

The Energy Department has also concluded that SARS-CoV-2 most likely leaked from a Chinese lab. The CIA has been unable to come to a determination about pandemic origins. -NY Post

Meanwhile, a senior CIA whistleblower recently told Congress that six analysts who originally concluded a lab-leak was the most likely origin of the pandemic were “given a significant monetary incentive to change their position.”

Hey, remember when the Facebook fact checker who worked at the Wuhan lab decreed that a lab-leak was impossible? Good times.

END

Viral RNA in a new study shows that it can persist for 2 years. This explains a lot to what is going on

with the virus (and damage from the vaccine)

Viral RNA Can Persist For 2 Years After COVID-19: Preprint Study

WEDNESDAY, SEP 20, 2023 – 08:20 PM

Authored by Megan Redshaw via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A new study may explain why some people who get COVID-19 never return to normal and instead experience new medical conditions like cardiovascular disease, clotting dysfunction, activation of latent viruses, diabetes mellitus, or what’s known as “long COVID” after SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Roughly 15 percent of people who get COVID-19 experience long COVID, a term used to define the long-term physical, cognitive, and mental health impairments that persist from weeks to months after a person recovers from COVID-19.

In a recent preprint study published on medRxiv, researchers conducted the first positron emission tomography (PET) imaging study of T cell activation in individuals who previously recovered from COVID-19 and found that SARS-CoV-2 infection may result in persistent T cell activation in a variety of body tissues for years following initial symptoms. Even in clinically mild cases of COVID-19, this phenomenon could explain the systemic changes observed in the immune system and in those with long COVID symptoms.

To carry out the study, researchers conducted whole-body PET scans of 24 participants who were previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 and recovered from acute infection at time points ranging from 27 to 910 days following COVID-19 symptom onset.

A PET scan is an imaging test that uses a radioactive drug called a tracer to assess the metabolic or biochemical function of tissues and organs and can reveal both normal and abnormal metabolic activity. The tracer is usually injected into the hand or vein in the arm and collects in areas of the body with higher levels of metabolic or biochemical activity, which can reveal the location of the disease.

Using a novel radiopharmaceutical agent that detects specific molecules associated with a type of white blood cell called T lymphocytes, researchers found uptake of the tracer was significantly higher in post-acute COVID-19 participants compared to pre-pandemic controls in the brain stem, spinal cord, bone marrow, nasopharyngeal and hilar lymphoid tissue, cardiopulmonary tissues, and gut wall. Among males and females, male participants tended to have higher uptake in the pharyngeal tonsils, rectal wall, and hilar lymphoid tissue compared to female participants.

Researchers specifically identified cellular SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the gut tissue of all participants with long COVID symptoms who underwent biopsy—in the absence of reinfection—ranging from 158 to 676 days following initial COVID-19 illness, suggesting that tissue viral persistence could be associated with long-term immunological concerns. Although the uptake of the tracer in some tissues appeared to decline with time, the levels still remained elevated compared to the control group of healthy pre-pandemic volunteers.

“These data significantly extend prior observations of a durable and dysfunctional cellular immune response to SARS-CoV-2 and suggest that SARS-CoV-2 infection could result in a new immunologic steady state in the years following COVID-19,” the researchers wrote.

To determine the association between T cell activation and long COVID symptoms, researchers compared post-acute COVID-19 participants with and without long COVID symptoms at the time of PET imaging. Those with long COVID symptoms reported a median of 5.5 symptoms at the time of imaging. Findings showed a “modestly higher uptake” of the agent in the spinal cord, hilar lymph nodes, and colon/rectal wall in those with long COVID symptoms.

In participants with long COVID who reported five or more symptoms at the time of imaging, researchers observed higher levels of inflammatory markers, “including proteins involved in immune responses, chemokine signaling, inflammation responses, and nervous system development.” Compared to both pre-pandemic controls and those participants who had COVID-19 and completely recovered, people with long COVID showed higher T cell activation in the spinal cord and gut wall.

Although the researchers attribute their findings to SARS-CoV-2 infection, all but one participant had received at least one COVID-19 vaccination prior to PET imaging. To minimize the impact of vaccination on T cell activation, PET imaging was performed more than 60 days from any vaccine dose except in one participant who received a booster vaccine dose six days prior to imaging. Except for that one participant, people who had received a COVID-19 vaccine within four weeks of imaging were excluded. Researchers also grouped participants by receipt of a COVID-19 dose greater than or less than 180 days prior to PET imaging—although vaccinated participants would have undoubtedly been included in both groups.

The researchers said their study had several other limitations, including small sample size, limited correlative studies, evolving variants, rapid and inconsistent rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, which required them to shift their imaging protocols, using pre-pandemic individuals as controls, and the extreme difficulty of finding people who had never been infected with SARS-CoV-2.

“In summary, our results provide provocative evidence of long-term immune system activation in several specific tissues following SARS-CoV-2 infection, including in those experiencing Long COVID symptoms,” the researchers concluded. “We identified that SARS-CoV-2 persistence is one potential driver of this ongoing activated immune state, and we show that SARS-CoV-2 RNA may persist in gut tissue for nearly 2 years after the initial infection.”

END

ROBERT H

Cancers Appearing in Ways Never Before Seen After COVID Vaccinations: Dr. Harvey Risch | The Epoch Times

Of course MRNA causes damage. Many people who had cancer never fully recover because they never build back the immune system. Every person who has a taken such a vaccine needs to rebuild their immune system in a race to fight for a healthy life and that means becoming much more aware of what is needed than normal.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/cancers-appearing-in-ways-never-before-seen-after-covid-vaccinations-dr-harvey-risch-5495364

END

GLOBAL ISSUES//

Michael Snyder on the worsening of the food crisis

(Michael Snyder)

This Is The Worst Global Food Crisis In Modern History, And It Is About To Go To An Entirely New Level

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 07:20 AM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Hundreds of millions of people are desperately hungry all over the world, and by the time you are done reading this article more children will starve to death. Earlier this year, CNN actually admitted that we are in the midst of “the worst food crisis in modern history”, but because the mainstream media rarely features images of the tremendous suffering on the other side of the globe most Americans don’t even know that it is happening. Here in the western world, the primary way that the global food crisis is manifesting is through significantly higher prices at the grocery store. Those higher prices are certainly painful, but we can deal with that. But when you don’t have enough food to feed your family on a consistent basis, that really is a nightmare scenario. According to the official UN website, 735 million people were in a “state of chronic hunger” last year…

By 2022, approximately 735 million people – or 9.2% of the world’s population – found themselves in a state of chronic hunger – a staggering rise compared to 2019. This data underscores the severity of the situation, revealing a growing crisis.

In addition, an estimated 2.4 billion people faced moderate to severe food insecurity in 2022. This classification signifies their lack of access to sufficient nourishment. This number escalated by an alarming 391 million people compared to 2019.

The persistent surge in hunger and food insecurity, fueled by a complex interplay of factors, demands immediate attention and coordinated global efforts to alleviate this critical humanitarian challenge.

We have never seen numbers like this before.

And the final numbers for 2023 will inevitably be even higher, because crops are failing all over the planet.

For example, this has been a catastrophic year for rice crops in India…

Satish Kumar sits in front of his submerged rice paddy in India’s Haryana state, looking despairingly at his ruined crops.

“I’ve suffered a tremendous loss,” said the third generation farmer, who relies solely on growing the grain to feed his young family. “I will not be able to grow anything until November.”

The newly planted saplings have been underwater since July after torrential rain battered northern India, with landslides and flash floods sweeping through the region.

The government of India responded to this crisis by banning the export of non-basmati white rice, but this has created a massive problem for the dozens of countries that rely on rice exports from India…

Last month, India, which is the world’s largest exporter of rice, announced a ban on exporting non-basmati white rice in a bid to calm rising prices at home and ensure food security. India then followed with more restrictions on its rice exports, including a 20% duty on exports of parboiled rice.

The move has triggered fears of global food inflation, hurt the livelihoods of some farmers and prompted several rice-dependent countries to seek urgent exemptions from the ban.

More than three billion people worldwide rely on rice as a staple food and India contributed to about 40% of global rice exports.

Please read that last sentence again.

Without rice exports from India, the number of people that starve in poor countries in Africa and the Middle East will soar.

Some impoverished nations are literally begging India to start exporting non-basmati white rice again, but so far the government of India is not budging.

So the price of rice has been surging all over the world, and supplies are getting tighter and tighter.

Let me ask you a question.

What would you do if your child was wasting away from malnutrition right in front of your eyes?

In Somalia, that is actually happening to half of all children under the age of five…

In Somalia, families are currently facing a catastrophic food crisis. This is the result of a severe and prolonged drought and decades of conflict that have destroyed crop production and made it almost impossible for herders to find food for their animals.

Unfortunately, the most vulnerable are children, with 50% of children under five in the country experiencing acute malnutrition.

Here in the western world, our children are not starving.

So we should be thankful for that.

But the lines at our food banks are getting longer. Here is an example from the state of Ohio…

Kam McKenzie, SNAP outreach manager for the food bank, said the Liberty Street pantry is seeing 940 more families per month since the end of February, when COVID-era SNAP benefits were halted.

“So now we’re averaging maybe a little over 300 families a day coming into our Liberty Street pantry to shop for groceries,” said McKenzie.

Based on the amount of food given out by Freestore, she estimated the demand on the pantry is up 27% compared to June of 2022.

And we are experiencing problems with our crops too.

In the middle of the country, seemingly endless drought conditions have greatly affected corn crops this year…

Lack of rain has hit crops hard: In Missouri, for example, 40% of the state’s corn crop was classified as poor or very poor, according to the drought monitor. Iowa, the nation’s top corn producer, is in the midst of its worst drought in a decade with about 80% of the state in some measure of drought.

Prolonged drought has even reached the banks of Lake Superior: Parts of Wisconsin have the most severe drought designation for the first time since the 1999 inception of the U.S. Drought Monitor, said Dennis Todey, director of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Midwest Climate Hub.

“It’s the severity of the drought and the length of the drought that are causing some confounding issues right now,” he said.

Unfortunately, we are still only in the very early stages of this new global food crisis.

Multiple long-term trends will combine to make it impossible for us to feed everyone on the planet in the years ahead.

Our politicians know this, but they are being very quiet about our rapidly growing food crisis because they don’t want to alarm the general population.

But there will be no escape. Hundreds of millions will not have enough food to eat tonight, and it won’t be too long before the number of people that are facing chronic hunger exceeds a billion.

Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.

end

DR PAUL ALEXANDER.

Dr. McCullough Testifies the Truth About COVID-19, mRNA Shots, and the WHO Before the European Parliament; It’s time to pull out from the World Health Organization. Dr. McCullough explains why.

The Vigilant Fox covers excellently! The mRNA technology vaccine causes Neurologic Disease, cardiovascular disease, blood clots, Immunologic Abnormalities; “The spike protein is the most thrombogenic

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERSEP 20

READ IN APP

Dr. McCullough Testifies the Truth About COVID-19, mRNA Shots, and the WHO Before the European Parliament

It’s time to pull out from the World Health Organization. Dr. McCullough explains why.

THE VIGILANT FOX

Esteemed cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough unleashed an array of truth bombs during his presentation to the European Parliament on September 13, 2023, in a session specifically focused on the World Health Organization and the global management of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Here are five key takeaways from Dr. McCullough’s presentation:

There were two main waves of harm: the first being the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak affecting mainly vulnerable populations, and the second being injuries related to COVID-19 vaccinations.
The WHO is part of a complex biopharmaceutical syndicate involving organizations like the United Nations, World Economic Forum, Gates Foundation, and Rockefeller Foundation. He accuses them of adversely impacting the pandemic response.
Dr. Anthony Fauci and others concealed the lab-engineered origins of the virus in Wuhan, China.
The only effective ways to prevent hospitalization and death are through early treatment and acquiring natural immunity. Dr. McCullough criticized organizations like the WHO for obstructing such early treatment options.
mRNA “vaccines” introduce a potentially harmful genetic code into the human body, leading to multiple diseases, including myocarditis
END
Canadian government approved COVID mRNA technology (& DNA) vaccines that were NEVER shown to be safe and effective! Vaccines were authorized in Canada during 2020 and 2021 without being subjected tothe country’s safety tests as required under established drug regulations, revealed an accountability watchdog; evidence of flawed mechanism via which the vaccines were granted “approval” in CanadaDR. PAUL ALEXANDERSEP 21 READ IN APP ‘“Under the alternative authorization process, the necessity to establish the safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines through an objective manner appears to have been set aside.”Canada’s Food and Drug Regulations require that a drug can only be approved in the country after its safety and effectiveness are demonstrated to the Minister of Health. Then, the minister considers whether the benefits outweigh the risks, following which, approval is granted.
END

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News

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CNN Turns on Biden over Border Crisis, Warns America: ‘Situation Is Becoming Very Clearly Untenable’CNN has turned on Democrat President Joe Biden over the escalating crisis at the Southern Border, warning the American people the situation has become “very clearly untenable.”READ MORE

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Rupert Murdoch Trashed Trump, New Book Claims: ‘As*hole,’ ‘Plainly Nuts,’ ‘Idiot,’ ‘Fool’Fox News boss Rupert Murdoch trashed President Donald Trump up and down, according to a new book.READ MORE

Jack Smith’s Gag Order Would Block Trump from Criticizing Biden during Election, Experts Warn Special Counsel Jack Smith’s gag order request against President Donald Trump is so broad that it would essentially block the 45th POTUS from criticizing his opponent in the 2024 election, experts have warned.READ MORE

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Biden Signs Executive Order to Establish ‘American Climate Corps’ to Fight ‘Global Warming’Democrat President Joe Biden has just signed an executive order to establish a so-called “American Climate Corps” for fighting “global warming.”READ MORE

Gavin Newsom Defends Biden Family, Claims Influence-Peddling Is ‘Hardly Unique’California’s Democrat Governor Gavin Newsom has defended President Joe Biden’s family by arguing that influence-peddling is “hardly unique.”READ MORE

Ohio Democrat: Biden’s ‘Death Is Imminent’An Ohio state Democrat has issued a warning to the rest of her party about the looming 2024 elections by declaring that President Joe Biden’s “death is imminent.”READ MORE

Doctors ‘Euthanized’ Woman by Suffocating Her with a Pillow, Family ‘Heard Screaming’A terminally ill Belgian woman was suffocated with a pillow while being legally “euthanized” by doctors, according to reports.READ MORE

‘Bidenomics’: Poverty Rate Increases for First Time in 13 Years Under Democrat President Joe Biden’s leadership, America has just suffered the first rise in the U.S. poverty rate in 13 years.READ MORE

Benjamin Netanyahu Takes Swipe at Biden, Calls Elon Musk ‘Unofficial’ U.S President Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sat down for an interview with Twitter/X boss Elon Musk on Tuesday.READ MORE

Elon Musk Sues Biden Admin for Violating U.S Constitution Elon Musk’s SpaceX fired back at Democrat President Joe Biden and sued the U.S. federal government.READ MORE

EVOL NEWS

UN Chief: Globalism Is Failing, Agenda 2030 ‘In Peril’READ MORE…

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NEWS ADDICTS

LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES

UN Chief: Globalism Is Failing, Agenda 2030 ‘In Peril’The head of the United Nations (UN) has warned world leaders that globalism is failing and called for an “urgent plan” to save Agenda 2030, which he says is “in peril.”READ THE FULL REPORT

G20 Nations Sign Treaty to Roll Out ‘Digital ID’ Globally The United States has joined the rest of the G20 nations in signing a treaty to commit to rolling out the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) “digital IDs” globally.READ THE FULL REPORT

AOC Gets ‘Fact-Checked’ During Climate Change Hearing Democrat Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) was fact-checked in the middle of a hearing by a witness over a claim about greenhouse emissions.READ THE FULL REPORT

Biden Admin Gives $5.7 Million to Treatment Program for ‘Triggered’ Woke Journalists The Biden administration has approved $5.7 million in grant funding to George Washington University to create a program that will provide psychological care to journalists who believe they are the targets of “misinformation-driven harassment campaigns.”READ THE FULL REPORT

‘Mystery Man’ Ray Epps Has Finally Been Charged for His Role in Jan 6 After years of controversy over his role in fomenting the January 6 riots, Ray Epps has been formally charged with a sole count of ‘disorderly and disruptive conduct in a restricted building or grounds.’READ THE FULL REPORT

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

Wronger For Longer

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 09:45 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

We were lower for longer. Then we were higher for longer. Now we are going to be wronger for longer.

After all, the Fed, while holding at 5.50%, saw big increases to its projected rate of GDP growth (from 1.0% to 2.1% in 2023, and from 1.1% to 1.5% in 2024), big downward revisions to unemployment (from 4.1% to 3.8% in 2023, and from 4.5% to 4.1% in 2024), and yet an optimistic downward revision to core PCE inflation for 2023 from 3.9% to 3.7%, with 2024 the same at 2.6%. The dot-plot still projects one more 25bp hike this year to 5.75%, and Fed Funds was revised up by 50bps in both 2024 and 2025 –so now two cuts of 25bps in 2024, not four, five in 2025, and four in 2026– and Fed Funds is seen at 2.9% in 2026, 0.4ppts above the previously assumed long-run rate. Powell noted during Q&A that some at the Fed have raised their estimate of the longer run rate, but this did not show up in the median.

As a result, US 2-year Treasury yields at 5.18% were +13bps from pre-Fed, +9bps on the day, and the highest since June 2006. 10-year yields were 4.41%, +10bps from pre-Fed, +5bps on the day, and the highest since December 2007. The DXY index at 105.4 is heading back towards its 2023 high, though many EM FX will be breathing a sigh of relief that oil was down around 1%. (So, when do we get the next supply cut from OPEC+?)

Yet after the ECB rate hike to 4.00% last week, weaker-than-expected UK CPI yesterday ahead of the coin-toss BOE today, and the Fed holding, some are again salivating at the prospect of a rates pause and an imminent cutting cycle. Some even think we might be heading back to zero, with some cause given past performance.

I dub that approach “Wronger for Longer.” Put simply, if rates fall in 2024, we are still very unlikely to be going back to the post-2008 ‘New Normal’; and if we are, where rates sit is going to be less important than where you are, given the powder-keg under us socio-politically and geopolitically.

Crucially, Philp Marey, Elwin de Groot, Bas van Geffen, and Ben Picton all agree that while rates will fall in 2024, they are not going to fall fast or far. Indeed, on the Fed, Philip argues the floor may well be as high as 3.5%. Yes, that’s lower than 5.5%, where he sees the peak. However, it’s far too high for a swathe of the market and economy predicated on zero or negative rates. After Merkel’s statue toppling, art again imitates life: a few years ago, people were paying silly money for a banana taped to a wall; now, ‘Danish artist told to repay museum €67,000 after turning in blank canvasses’. There’s no time for that shtick when you can earn decent interest.

Moreover, even a 3.5% Fed Funds floor would be relatively higher than in many other economies. If you think Europe, Japan, or China will be raising rates, or not matching Fed easing, when US data turn south you are going to be very wrong. How long for is up to you.

Imagine the pain in pockets of the vast global Eurodollar market: and the naiveté of those thinking the Fed will bail everyone there out even as the geopolitical and geoeconomic architecture fragments. “What have you done for me lately?” will be the Fed tune when a failure to rewind all of its recent tightening sees cascading Eurodollar credit failures.

Yet the Fed specifically and central banks in general are also likely to be wronger for longer. As Philip notes:

“We do not share the Fed’s optimism about a soft landing, and we think it’s more likely to see a deterioration in the economic data before the November meeting, averting additional rate hikes We expect the US economy to fall into recession in the final quarter of this year as a result of the lagged impact of monetary policy. We find the FOMC projections too optimistic, not only because they reflect a soft landing, but also because we have some doubts about the smooth return to the 2% inflation target.

First of all, core services ex-housing remains a wild card, closely related to nominal wage growth. Even the FOMC has to admit that it is not clear yet that this is under control. Recent strikes suggest that labour is still seeking compensation. What’s more, any negative supply or positive demand shock could set off another spell of inflation. We only have to read the daily news to see that the world economy is more likely to experience negative supply shocks these days compared to the past.

Therefore, we think that the FOMC’s inflation projections are only realistic if nominal wage growth slows down rapidly, and further supply and demand shocks remain absent. However, in reality inflation may be more persistent than projected by the FOMC. In combination this means that our forecasts are more stagflationary than the FOMC’s: we expect both more economic stagnation and more persistent inflation. A recent study by the IMF paints a sobering picture about the effectiveness of previous attempts across the globe to get inflation back under control.”

Indeed, Philip believes we could also see upward revisions of the longer run Fed Funds rate in upcoming FOMC projections. That would certainly shake financial markets up as:

The US signs a new Partnership for Atlantic Cooperation, an embryonic NATO-meets-In-Deep-Ship pushback against China’s maritime Belt and Road. That’s as former president Trump floats using the US Navy to blockade fentanyl imports coming in – presumably not at the land border;
The Financial Times asks ‘Can Europe go green without China’s critical minerals?’ The answer is only at a very high price in a process described as akin to repairing a car while driving it.
The striking UAW carried out strikes at three US plants as a warning. They now have Trump’s backing – if they oppose EVs entirely. (As UK PM Sunk also flip-flops.);
On the labour front, Trump talks about using the 1798 Alien Enemies Act –last used by FDR in WW2 to keep Japanese Americans in internment camps– to deport non-citizens;
Lina Kahn’s FTC ratchets up its anti-trust case against Amazon; and
The US lurches towards potential shut down before what some suspect will be pre-2024 giveaways to the electorate.

end

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

Russia/EU

Russia slaps the EU in the face by banning diesel and gasoline exports

(zerohedge)

Oil, Cracks Soar After Russia Bans Diesel, Gasoline Exports

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 10:30 AM

With Diesel prices already soaring (in anticipation of the highly vaunted soft landing), recently sending the diesel crack to 2023 highs and assuring that refiners have another blowout quarter, Russia just handed a gift to the Exxons of the world – and spat in the face of Christine Lagarde – when it “temporarily banned” exports of the diesel in a bid to stabilize domestic supplies, adding pressure on already tight global fuel markets.

“Temporary restrictions will help saturate the fuel market, that in turn will reduce prices for consumers” in Russia, the government’s press office said on its website. The “temporary” ban, which also applies to gasoline, comes into force today, Sept. 21, and doesn’t have the final date, according to the government decree, signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

Exemptions are made for minor supplies, including deliveries to some trade alliance partners as well as humanitarian aid and transit, the decree said.

Prices in Europe jumped at the threat the measure will aggravate already staggering global shortages. The world’s oil refiners are struggling to produce enough of the fuel amid curbed crude supplies from Russia and Saudi Arabia. Of course, this means that refiners are going to push prices sharply higher and – in the parlance of Joe Biden’s handlers – will print money again.

In northwest Europe, the premium of benchmark diesel futures to crude oil — known as the ICE Gasoil crack — soared sharply, topping $37 a barrel, and on pace to the highest level of the year.

Diesel futures for delivery in October also grew more expensive relative to barrels for arrival the following month, with backwardation surpassing $35 per ton. Brent has also spiked, reversing almost all of yesterday’s losses.

In effect, what Russia is doing by halting exports of product, is exporting higher prices to Europe.

Surging car-fuel prices have been one the biggest contributors to inflation, a potential political headache as the Kremlin prepares for the presidential election in March. Retail gasoline and diesel prices in Russia have climbed 9.4% from the start of the year to Sept. 18 compared with an increase in overall consumer prices of 4%, according to the most recent Federal Statistics Service data.

Russia’s government has spent weeks in talks with oil producers to decide on measures to rein in rising fuel prices. President Vladimir Putin said last week that officials and companies had agreed on how to act in the future, but the wrangling continued, Bloomberg sources said.

In the first 13 days of September, Russia exported an average of some 63,000 tons of diesel per day and just over 8,000 tons of gasoline per day, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. Daily diesel exports fell 31% compared with the average for the first 30 days in August as refineries undergo seasonal maintenance and producers redirected more fuel to the domestic market following government efforts to ease prices.

And just like that…

… with one simple signature, Putin has assured that any ECB hopes of an end to rate hikes have been dashed for good.

END

LNG

Negotiations break down yesterday between Chevron and Australian LNG workers. This could be deadly for supplies into Europe which badly needs LNG for the winter.

(Kennedy/OilPrice.com)

Negotiations Break Down Between Chevron And Australian LNG Workers

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Charles Kennedy via Oilprice.com,

Australia’s Fair Work Commission is set to decide on Friday whether to halt the strikes at Chevron’s two LNG export facilities in Australia after the latest talks between the U.S. supermajor and trade unions failed on Wednesday.

“The ongoing lack of agreement reinforces our view that there is no reasonable prospect of agreement between the parties,” a spokesperson for Chevron told Reuters today.

The workers have stepped up their industrial action that began earlier last week, and plan further escalations in the coming weeks.

After the latest negotiations between the trade unions and the U.S. company failed to resolve the labor dispute, the Fair Work Commission, the labor market regulator, will meet on September 22 to hear the dispute after Chevron reached out to it in an effort to force the workers to settle.

The supermajor is seeking to get a so-called “intractable bargaining” declaration from the Fair Work Commission, meaning the FWC could force workers to agree to terms proposed by Chevron.

Despite the industrial action and a fault at the Wheatstone facility last week, LNG exports out of Australia remain unaffected, vessel tracking data shows.

Yet, the Offshore Alliance trade union wrote in a Facebook post on Wednesday that “Chevron bosses are telling the global media that they are doing a bang up job whilst copping Protected Industrial Action on their West Coast oil and gas facilities. This is simply unadulterated bullshit from a mob who are masters of spin.”

According to OA, volumes across all 3 trains at the Gorgon LNG facility have dropped by 12%, while the Wheatstone facility is still flaring gas.

“The cracks are starting to appear across all 3 Chevron facilities as their unskilled, untrained, and non-competent contingency workforce are ready to implode,” the trade union said.

Despite the failed talks in Australia, the front-month benchmark European natural gas price futures were trading 1% lower at 12:31 p.m. GMT on Wednesday, following a jump on Tuesday, which was driven by expected delays at the ramp-up of the giant Norwegian gas field Troll after regular maintenance.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

END

Then:

“Large Number Of Issues Settled”: Strikes At Australian LNG Plants Might End As Early As Friday

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 02:00 PM

Chevron Corp. and labor unions at its liquefied natural gas plants in Australia may be close to resolving labor contract disputes as soon as this Friday. This would end the strikes that have been ongoing since September 8 and have sparked volatility in global NatGas markets due to supply concerns.

Bloomberg said Australia’s labor regulator is working closely with Chevron and the labor unions to resolve remaining contract disputes.

“The parties are on the precipice of achieving historical first enterprise agreements,” the Fair Work Commission (FWC) wrote in a statement Thursday, adding, “A large number of issues have been settled. However, a failure to settle all of the outstanding issues will result in those agreed provisions simply evaporating.”

Western Australia Secretary for the Australian Workers’ Union, Brad Gandy, said union members will meet Thursday evening to review the new offer: “We will take direction from our members in how we respond.”

FWC said both parties “have spent countless hours at the negotiating table” and “would be a pity and very frustrating to simply throw out these agreed positions” by failing to compromise on specific demands.

Bloomberg said, “Workers at Chevron’s Wheatstone offshore platform could be offered a field loading allowance — compensation for the remote nature of their jobs and associated travel — of A$103,000 ($66,028) a year, and staff at onshore plants a total of A$85,000 a year, the regulator said in its recommendations. Employees who suffer lengthy travel delays should be provided with a per diem of A$34.95 for breakfast, A$49.35 for lunch and A$69.20 dinner.”

Traders have been focused on Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG plants and the Wheatstone offshore platform in Western Australia because these facilities account for 7% of the world’s LNG production. And since the West has made a concerted effort to cut Europe off from cheap NatGas from Russia, Germany and other countries depend more on energy supplies from halfway around the world.

Separately, maintenance in Norway, the continent’s biggest NatGas supplier, appears to be recovering as NatGas capacity from the Troll field comes back online, according to network manager Gassco AS.

Both headlines pressured front-month futures at the Dutch TTF hub, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, down as much as 6% early Thursday. But losses were recovered by late afternoon, trading around 38.50 euro per megawatt. Prices remain range bound for most of the year.

Ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter, Europe is in excellent shape, with storage sites in the region about 94% full on average – well above seasonal averages for this time of year.

“Germany is much better prepared for this winter than last year,” said Klaus Mueller, president of the regulatory Federal Network Agency, in a statement.

Mueller continued, “We can certainly be optimistic, but it is still too early to sound the all-clear.”

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

BRAZIL

ROBERT H TO US:

Pix: Brazil’s Successful Instant Payment System in: IMF Staff Country Reports Volume 2023 Issue 289 (2023)

The globalists are trying this on many levels. Their goal is to have every Central Bank have their own digital currency and have the central banks trade and settle between nations on trade controlling who they wish to sponsor. A
As a counter there is another twist where certain parties are working to have a quantum based banking system that allows individual freedom on a central bank and local bank level apart from this Digital push. As a counter it also delivers a stark reality of actual value because debt is not hidden but apparent, in all activities. Whereas with these digital currencies they expect to mask it all under the rug as to debt to set “club” relationships of currency value to endure such a game. It will fail.

https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/002/2023/289/article-A004-en.xml

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS

EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0638 DOWN 0.0012

USA/ YEN 147.93 DOWN 0.392 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2268 DOWN 0.0060

USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3512 UP .0035 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 35 BASIS PTS)

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 23.87 PTS OR 0.77%

Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 230.19 PTS OR 1.29%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.30% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 230.19 PTS OR 1.29%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 23.87 PTS OR 0.77%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.30%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 352.35 PTS OR 1.37%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1920.85

silver:$23.17

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 105.30 UP 52 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.

THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.466% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.737% UP 3 AND 1//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.799 UP 3 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.545 UP 20 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7410 UP 3 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0660 UP 0.0010 or 10 basis points

USA/Japan: 147.42 DOWN .901 OR YEN UP 90 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2296 DOWN 0.0031 OR 31 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0009 OR 9 BASIS pts to 1.3486

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.3071

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.3117)

TURKISH LIRA: 27.12 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.737…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 14 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.482% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 4.568 UP 17 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.137 UP 0 BASIS PTS.

Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 52.84 POINTS or 0.68%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 209.55 PTS OR 1.33%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 120.29 PTS OR 1.64%

Spain IBEX DOWN 102.80 PTS OR 1.09%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 525.67 PTS OR 1.79%

WTI Oil price 90.57 12: EST

Brent Oil: 94.15 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 96.22; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 7//100

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.7410 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.3465 UP 6 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0664 UP 0.0015 OR 15 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2293 DOWN .0033 or 33 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.339% UP 10 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .734%

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147.49 DOWN .800 //YEN UP 80 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3469 DOWN .0009 CDN dollar UP 9 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 89.50

Brent OIL: 93.20

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 14 BASIS pts to 4.482%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 15 BASIS PTS to 4.554%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP0 PTS AT 5.144 %

USA dollar index: 10.502 UP 23 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.12 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 95.91 UP 0 AND 24/100 roubles

GOLD 1920.60

SILVER: 23.42

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 370.46 PTS OR 1.08%

NASDAQ DOWN 275.68 PTS OR 1.84%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 17.54 UP 2.40 PTS (15.85)%

GLD: $178.05 DOWN 1.30 OR 0.72%

SLV/ $21.34 UP 0.10 OR 0.47%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Bond Bloodbath Trounces Tech; Batters Bitcoin, Banks, & Bullion

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 04:00 PM

A central bank smorgasbord started the day off with a bang of confusing cross-currents (SNB/BOE unch; Riksbank/Norges hiked and hawkisher; and Turkey hiked in line) – all sending the dollar higher further. Domestically, just as much confusion: a hot labor market (claims plunging), and inflation fears rising (Philly Fed prices paid), along with housing getting hammered (existing home sales slump).

But it was still The Fed that was on everyone’s mind, and the market’s expectations for rate-cuts next year are quickly be reduced from over 6 rates cuts implied in July to around 3 cuts in 2024 now…

Source: Bloomberg

We suspect it may need to go lower than that (fewer cuts still).

Treasuries were mixed (basically some giveback to yesterday’s moves with the short-end outperforming – 2Y -3bps, 30Y +11bps), but combining the two days, all yields are still significantly higher…

Source: Bloomberg

…leaving the yield curve (2s30s) steeper (less inverted)…

Source: Bloomberg

For context:

2Y yields hit their highest since July 2006
5Y yields highest since Aug 2007
10Y highest since Nov 2007
30Y highest since April 2011

Source: Bloomberg

All of which weighed on stonks with the longest-duration (tech) hit hardest. Nasdaq is down over 3% post-FOMC. The Dow was the least ugly horse in the glue factory and is down almost 2% post-Powell…

As we detailed earlier, the key level to watch is the medium-term momentum threshold of 4353, below which the CTA community will start to flip negative and selling will accelerate…

The S&P is back at 3-month lows (and we note that Small Caps are up just 1% year-to-date).

All the majors are back below their 100DMAs with Small Caps back below their 200DMA…

And VIX broke back above 17…

Banks broke down to initial SVB-puke lows…

The dollar extended gains intraday to its highest since March 2023 before giving some back…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin broke back below $27,000 as stocks started to sink…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite plenty of intraday vol, oil prices ended around unch with WTI sliding back below $90 from its midday bounce highs…

Gold chopped around but ended notably lower (despite heavy call demand)…

Finally, NVDA losing the battle?

Source: Bloomberg

A new cycle high for real rates… and S&P valuations starting to crack…

Source: Bloomberg

Can The Fed stand pat if the S&P loses 5 turns of fwd P/E? Do you feel lucky?

TUCKER CARLSON..

END

end

II USA DATA

Philly Fed business survey crashes back into contraction. Stagflation conditions broadening!

(zerohedge)

Philly Fed Business Survey Crashes Back Into Contraction In September

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 08:55 AM

After a somewhat shocking surge back into expansion (and a big beat) in August, September’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey from the Philly Fed puked all that improvement back and plunged back into contraction in September.

The headline index crashed from +12 to -13.5 (the index’s 14th negative reading in the past 16 months), with over 29% of the firms reported decreases (up from 13% last month), exceeding the 16% reporting increases (down from 25%)…

Source: Bloomberg

The indicators for new orders and shipments also declined.

The new orders index – which had been negative for 14 consecutive months prior to August – plunged from +16.0 last month to -10.2 this month.

The shipments index tumbled 9 points to -3.2 in September.

Confusingly, with jobless claims at YTD lows, Philly Fed employment index contracted for the 6th straight month…

Source: Bloomberg

More problematically for The Fed is that firms overall reported increases in prices (Prices Paid rose 5pts to 25.7)…

22 percent of the firms expect the impacts of COVID-19 mitigation measures to worsen, up from zero percent in June.

Additionally, 24 percent of the firms expect the impacts of energy markets to worsen, while over one-fifth of the firms expect the impacts of financial capital to worsen.

So growth slowing, prices rising… yet another signal of stagflationary pressures building

end

Initial and continuing jobless claims continue to plunge but I would not put too much into this reading due to revisions. If the number of workers are increasing where is the tax revenue?

(zerohedge)

Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims Continues To Plunge

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 08:37 AM

The number of Americans filing for jobless claims for the first time last week plunged to 201k last week, the lowest since January (with NSA claims at 174k, the lowest since October)…

Source: Bloomberg

…And this time it got no help from the distortions in Ohio (fraud) and Minnesota (extended claims) which appear to have normalized…

Source: Bloomberg

Indiana saw the biggest drop in claims while New York saw the biggest jump

Additionally, continuing claims continues to slide well below 1.7mm, now back to its lowest since January…

Source: Bloomberg

This ‘hot’ jobs data vindicates Powell’s hawkish stance…

end

USA existing home sales suffer its second weakest summer

(zerohedge)

US Existing Home Sales Suffer Second Weakest Summer Ever

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 10:10 AM

Existing home sales were expected to rise modestly in August (+0.7% MoM) after tumbling 2.2% MoM in July. However, as makes a little more sense in the real world, home sales dropped 0.7% MoM leaving sales down 15.3% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

The total SAAR fell back near its lowest since 2010 (as new home sales trend higher on incentives)…

Source: Bloomberg

And on a seasonal basis, this is the second weakest sales print ever (only 2010 was worse)…

Source: Bloomberg

It appears that high-end home sales are cracking in the West And Northeast…

The number of homes for sale edged lower to 1.1 million, the smallest August inventory in data back to 1999. At the current sales pace, it would take 3.3 months to sell all the properties on the market. Realtors see anything below five months of supply as indicative of a tight market.

The median selling price rose 3.9% from a year earlier to $407,100, one of the highest readings on record. Since August 2019, prices are up 46%, according to Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

“Supply needs to essentially double to moderate home price gains,” Yun said in a statement.

“Mortgage rate changes will have a big impact over the short run, while job gains will have a steady, positive impact over the long run.”

And, if mortgage rates (and thus affordability) are anything to go by, things are about to get real…

Source: Bloomberg

…which appears to be what Powell is looking for.

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

GOP lawmakers warns the White House on Ukraine aid.

(zerohedge)

GOP Lawmakers Warn White House On Ukraine Aid As McCarthy Vows To Confront Zelensky

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 08:45 AM

Ukrainian President Volodoymr Zelensky is in Washington Thursday, where he’s expected at the White House to meet with President Joe Biden. Importantly, he’s also soon due to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, at a moment some GOP dissenters are holding up Pentagon funding and the potential for more Ukraine aid.

McCarthy vowed Tuesday to confront and intensely question Zelensky when the two meet. He posed going into the meeting, “Is Zelensky elected to Congress? Is he our president? I don’t think I have to commit anything and I think I have questions for him.”

“Where’s the accountability on the money we’ve already spent? What is the plan for victory? I think that’s what the American public wants to know,” McCarthy added.

Central here is the Biden and Democrat-backed effort to include an additional $24 billion in Ukraine funding. Zelensky will seek to rally Congressional Republicans behind it.

At the start of the week Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said, “And with no Ukraine funding, the proposal is an insult to Ukraine and a gift to Putin. I cannot think of a worse welcome for Zelensky who visits us this week than this House proposal, which ignores Ukraine entirely.”

Toward this end of unquestionably pushing through the billions in US taxpayer dollars for Ukraine, John Fetterman says he’s willing to leave the hoodie at home and finally wear a suit on the Senate floor if “jagoffs” in the House decide to “fully support Ukraine”.

The Washington Post and others are meanwhile reporting on a new letter that GOP Congressional leaders sent the White House, which vows to reject the $24 billion in Ukraine aid…

In a letter viewed by The Wall Street Journal, the group says it is rejecting President Biden’s request for an additional $24 billion in security, economic and humanitarian aid. The lawmakers said they have concerns about the more than $100 billion in funding Congress already has approved, complained that the administration supports an “open-ended commitment” to Ukraine and criticized what they say is an unclear strategy. It is signed by 23 House members and six senators, led by Sen. J.D. Vance (R., Ohio) and Rep. Chip Roy (R., Texas), and addressed to Shalanda Young, the director of the White House Office of Management and Budget.

Among the other signatories is Sen. Rand Paul, who has said, “It’s as if no one has noticed that we have no extra money to send to Ukraine.” He further pointed out that “Our deficit this year will exceed $1.5 trillion. Borrowing money from China to send it to Ukraine makes no sense.”

And Sen. Vance on the proposed spending bill said: “Now you hear people talking about the long haul. Well, is the long haul a year, $100 billion, in 10 years, a trillion dollars?”

Among the key questions that the GOP letter to the White House poses are: “How is the counteroffensive going? Are the Ukrainians any closer to victory than they were 6 months ago? What is our strategy, and what is the president’s exit plan?” the Republicans wrote. “It would be an absurd abdication of congressional responsibility to grant this request without knowing the answers to these questions.”

So a fight is brewing with the hawks, of which there are plenty in the GOP. But overall, the timing couldn’t be worse for Zelensky, for the many reasons we covered here.

end

McCarthy Fails For 2nd Time To Advance Bill Funding Defense Department As Ukraine Sows Division

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 12:20 PM

Update(12:20ET): With Zelensky in Capitol Hill, and with Ukraine aid hanging in the balance, Kevin McCarthy has failed for a second time to advance a bill funding the Defense Department, which keeps the government on a path toward a shutdown on Oct. 1. Politico has reported secret, urgent cross-aisle talks as follows: “Small groups of centrist Democrats are holding secret talks with several of McCarthy’s close GOP allies about a last-ditch deal to fund the government, according to more than a half-dozen people familiar with the discussions.”

The House voted 212-216 against moving the funding bill to a final vote: Axios

A small group of conservative holdouts are harping on the key controversial issues of Ukraine and the US border:

Generally, the bipartisan group is focusing on two major ideas: a procedural maneuver to force a vote on a compromise spending plan — or somehow crafting a bill so popular that McCarthy can pass it and survive any challenge from the right. That bill would likely be a bipartisan short-term patch with some disaster money, Ukraine aid and small-scale border policies, according to multiple people briefed on the talks who spoke on condition of anonymity.

And more of today’s scrambling via Politico:

Two people familiar with those conversations pointed to New York Rep. Mike Lawler, who sits in one of the GOP’s toughest battleground seats, as especially vocal in private meetings about threats to sign a discharge petition.

Asked if he sees an increasing chance of centrists from both parties teaming up as the stalemate continues, Lawler said that “I would like to see the House Republican majority govern” by passing a short-term patch that can start further talks with the Senate.

“But until that happens,” he added, “we need to keep the government funded and operational. And my only comment to my colleagues is: If we want to govern, we need to do so expeditiously.”

The pushback from McCarthy on a possible discharge petition comes after he repeatedly failed to get his own members behind a GOP-only bill that would pair a stopgap funding patch with spending cuts and a Republican border bill. One Republican lawmaker involved in the talks acknowledged that the bipartisan maneuvering could help pressure conservatives to stop resisting any solution.

On the other hand, this lawmaker added, “If you are a nihilist and you want to burn the place down, you don’t care.”

On the prospect of $24 billion for Ukraine, some vocal Republicans have grown bolder in highlighting Ukraine’s problems, urging that America must first fix its own pressing crises at home. McCarthy is also trying to appease the hardliners by appealing to Biden.

MCCARTHY: BIDEN NEEDS TO ADDRESS BORDER BEFORE FUNDING UKRAINE

And a similar sentiment from Hawley, aimed at the GOP Russia hawks…

* * *

“Where’s the accountability on the money we’ve already spent? What is the plan for victory? I think that’s what the American public wants to know,” McCarthy added.

Central here is the Biden and Democrat-backed effort to include an additional $24 billion in Ukraine funding. Zelensky will seek to rally Congressional Republicans behind it.

The Washington Post and others are meanwhile reporting on a new letter that GOP Congressional leaders sent the White House, which vows to reject the $24 billion in Ukraine aid…

In a letter viewed by The Wall Street Journal, the group says it is rejecting President Biden’s request for an additional $24 billion in security, economic and humanitarian aid. The lawmakers said they have concerns about the more than $100 billion in funding Congress already has approved, complained that the administration supports an “open-ended commitment” to Ukraine and criticized what they say is an unclear strategy. It is signed by 23 House members and six senators, led by Sen. J.D. Vance (R., Ohio) and Rep. Chip Roy (R., Texas), and addressed to Shalanda Young, the director of the White House Office of Management and Budget.

And Sen. Vance on the proposed spending bill said: “Now you hear people talking about the long haul. Well, is the long haul a year, $100 billion, in 10 years, a trillion dollars?”

So a fight is brewing with the hawks, of which there are plenty in the GOP. But overall, the timing couldn’t be worse for Zelensky, for the many reasons we covered here.

END

New York City

They are nuts mulling reparations!

(zerohedge)

Despite ‘Financial Tsunami’ From Migrants, NYC Mulls Reparations, Removal Of George Washington Statues

WEDNESDAY, SEP 20, 2023 – 10:40 PM

While NYC Mayor Eric Adams insists that the migrant crisis will “destroy New York City,” and hurt ‘low-income New Yorkers‘ because of the ‘financial tsunami,’ it seems the city is somehow able to rationalize launching a reparations task force, and removing statues of George Washington.

These are among various measures the city council discussed on Tuesday during a public hearing on a measure to remove works of art on city property that “depict a person who owned enslaved persons or directly benefited economically from slavery, or who participated in systemic crimes against indigenous peoples or other crimes against humanity,” Fox News reports.

[We assume this includes all Islamic art, since Muhammad had 14 concubines?]

The removals would include statues of America’s first president, George Washington, Dutch governor and New York settler Peter Stuyvesant, and Christopher Columbus.

If the Public Design Commission (PDC) determined not to remove the work of art, then it would be required to include a plan to install an “explanatory plaque” next to the work of art. The proposal would also require PDC to consult with the Department of Education to install plaques on sidewalks or other public space adjacent to schools named after a person that fits the criteria. -Fox News

The city’s agenda also included a proposal to create a task force which would “consider the impact of slavery and past injustices for African Americans in New York City and reparations for such injustices.”

Other proposals include anti-racism training for human services contractors, as well as a plaque near the intersection of Wall and Pearl Streets to “mark the site of New York’s first slave market.”

Never forget, right? Because the nation can’t heal until we all have constant reminders of a practice which ended almost 150 years ago.

Heaven forbid we focus on tackling modern slavery around the world.

end

UAW//GM

Permanent strikes continue as GM joins Ford and Stellantis with mass layoff

(zerohedge)

The Permanent Strikes Continue: GM Joins Ford, Stellantis With Mass Layoffs As Result Of UAW Action

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 12:05 PM

As the ill effects of the ongoing UAW strike continue, we will continue to document them.

First, we wrote about Stellantis looking to close 18 facilities as part of contract negotiations.

Then, we wrote about Ford laying off 600 employees due to the strike.

On Thursday morning we reported that Stellantis was laying off 68 employees and furloughing another 300 as a result of the strike.

Now, the “permanent strike” numbers are moving even higher: GM has announced it is laying of 2,000 workers as a result of the strike.

On Wednesday, General Motors took the step of suspending operations at a manufacturing facility located in Kansas, resulting in the layoff of nearly all of its workforce, comprising approximately 2,000 individuals, according to NBC.

In its official statement, the automaker clarified that the reason behind this decision stems from the absence of available tasks for the majority of employees stationed at the Fairfax assembly plant. This scarcity of work is a direct consequence of a strike initiated by workers at another GM facility this past Friday.

Furthermore, the company conveyed that it is unable to offer supplemental unemployment benefits in this instance, citing the unique circumstances surrounding the situation.

These layoffs come in the wake of the United Auto Workers union initiating a strike on Friday, following the expiration of its previous contract with Stellantis, Ford, and GM. This strike saw approximately 12,700 workers walk off the job.

As the first week of the strike nears its end, these layoffs serve as a clear indication that both sides involved are becoming increasingly steadfast in their positions.

On Tuesday, the head of United Auto Workers, Shawn Fain, declared he will unleash additional strikes across manufacturing facilities of General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co., and Stellantis NV on Friday. This move is contingent on the three automakers not properly addressing the union’s demands for a new four-year labor contract for its 146,000 members.

“Either the Big Three get down to business and work with us to make progress in negotiations, or more locals will be called on to stand up and go out on strike,” UAW boss Fain said in a YouTube video published Monday evening.

Fain said, “We’re not waiting around, and we’re not messing around. So, noon on Friday, Sept. 22 is a new deadline.”

Keep “holding out”, UAW – pretty soon there will be no auto industry left and you can claim victory over the evil executives who work there. Except, no one will have jobs, of course…

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON…

end

USA// COVID//VACCINE/

end

SWAMP STORIES

FBI Had So Many Paid Informants In J6 Riot They Lost Track And Had To Perform Audit: Ex-Official

WEDNESDAY, SEP 20, 2023 – 06:00 PM

A former assistant FBI director has told lawmakers that the agency had so many paid informants at the Capitol on January 6, 2021 that it lost track and had to perform an audit, according to the NY Post‘s Miranda Devine.

Steven D’Antuono, formerly in charge of the FBI’s Washington field office, told the House Judiciary Committee in closed-door testimony that while his field office knew some of their informants would be at Donald Trump’s “Stop the Steal” rally across town, informants from other field offices were present at the Capitol that day, as well as other informants who had participated on their own accord.

One fed informant was on the phone with his handler as he breached the Capitol.

The fed-fest was so overwhelming that the Washington field office had to ask FBI headquarters to ” do a poll or put out something to people saying w[ere] any CHSs involved,” in order to figure out the scale of the agency’s spying (and whatnot) at the event, according to D’Antuono.

“We started getting responses back” from FBI headquarters, which he said helped identify which field offices had confidential informants in the crowd.

One paid informant from the Kansas City field office was at the Capitol as the crowd surged inside and allegedly was in communication with his FBI handler, “while they were in the crowd, I think, saying that they were going in,” according to the former bureau brass.

“They were trying to stop some of the action happening and they left or whatnot.”

Asked how many informants the audit discovered were in the crowd that day, D’Antuono would only say “a handful”. -NY Post

According to the Post, citing DOJ stats, the FBI spends around $42 million per year in payments to its Confidential Human Sources (like their mole in Burisma who said the Bidens coerced owner Mykola Zlochevsky into a $10 million bribe for political cover?).

On Tuesday, House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (D-OH) said D’Antuono’s testimony was “extremely concerning,” and suggests that “the FBI cannot adequately track the activities and operations of its informants, and that it lost control of its CHSs present at the Capitol on January 6.”

“These revelations reinforce existing concerns, identified by Special Counsel [John] Durham, about the FBI’s use of, and payment to, CHSs who have fabricated evidence and misrepresented information.

“The Justice Department Inspector General also identified critical problems in the FBI’s CHS program,” Jordan’s letter continues. “including the FBI’s failure to fully vet CHSs and the FBI’s willingness to ignore red flags that would call into question an informant’s reliability.”

Jordan has asked Wray to provide a “substantive briefing” on how the FBI used paid informants on Jan. 6, 2021, and “any specific guidelines or admonishments that were provided to FBI CHSs prior to deploying”.

Wray has also been asked to provide all debriefing documents received from Capitol riot informants.

Jordan also wants source reporting documentation relating to former British spy Christopher Steele, who was responsible for a now-notorious “dossier of false allegations about the Trump-Russia hoax.”

The number of FBI informants present during the Capitol riot has long been a controversial topic at trials of the hundreds of defendants apprehended since that day. -NY Post

According to one of the “Proud Boys,” the FBI had as many as eight informants spying on their organization alone, at least one of whom was with them at the Capitol that day, while former Capitol Hill Police Chief Steven Sund has said that the agency had at least 18 undercover agents in the crowd in addition to the paid informants, and estimated that at least 20 from the Department of Homeland Security were also present.

“Hello fellow insurrectionists!”

END

Robert h to us:

They are totally nuts!

Hal Turner Radio Show – TREASON on Video: Border Patrol CUTS Barbed Wire to ALLOW Illegal Aliens to Invade USA

Insanity

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/treason-on-video-border-patrol-cuts-barbed-wire-to-allow-illegal-aliens-to-invade-usa

Another money laundering operation to begin shortly;

(zerohedge)

Rebooted Clinton Global Initiative Licks Chops Over Ukraine ‘Humanitarian’ Aid

THURSDAY, SEP 21, 2023 – 05:45 AM

The now-revived Clinton Global Initiative (CGI) has found a new grift – Ukraine.

But first – a short review. The Clintons, through their foundation, fleeced Haiti to the tune of Billions following the 2010 earthquake which killed an estimated 220,000 people.

Hillary Clinton’s State Department pressured Haiti to suppress their minimum wage in sweatshops in order to benefit US clothing manufacturers
Clinton Foundation donors were were handed government contracts to clean up in the aftermath of the earthquake.
Bill Clinton intervened in the jail sentence of Laura Silsby, a convicted child trafficker who attempted to smuggle 33 children out of Haiti.
A former Haitian government official set to expose the Clinton Foundation’s misdeeds in Haiti shot himself in the head a week before he was able to testify.
The Clinton Foundation even grifted Haiti’s lime industry.
Haiti’s former Senate president said Hillary Clinton ‘tried to bribe me!‘

CGI was shuttered in 2017 after Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election and donations mysteriously dried up. It was rebooted in 2022.

And now, Ukraine.

According to the ABC News, CGI will launch the “Ukraine Action Network” with the stated mission of delivering ‘humanitarian aid’ to Ukrainians, which will “mobilize existing CGI partners, as well as new leaders from around the world, to create and finance new commitments for Ukrainians.”

Pope Francis kicked off the new initiative in a videoconference with Bill Clinton on Monday, where he said “No challenge is too great if we meet it starting with personal conversion and the personal contribution that each of us can make to solve it… No challenge can be overcome alone — not alone, only together, sisters and brothers, children of God.”

The CGI Ukraine Action Network is the result of a collaboration between Hillary Clinton and Olena Zelenska, first lady of Ukraine, that began last year. The new organization, which will be formally announced Tuesday, is designed to mobilize existing CGI partners, as well as new leaders from around the world, to create and finance new commitments for Ukrainians, according to CGI. Numerous monetary commitments for Ukraine are also set to be announced Tuesday. -ABC News

We’re sure this will go well, particularly for the children of war-torn Ukraine, and CGI donors.

THE KING REPORT

The King Report September 21, 2023 Issue 7080

Independent View of the News

Financial assets rallied during European trading on the usual Fed Day buying and softer than expected UK CPI. UK August CPI increased 0.3% m/m and 6.7% y/y; 0.7% m/m & 7.0% y/y were consensus. Core CPI for August increased 6.2% y/y; 6.8% was expected.

The usual suspects proclaimed that the lower than expected August UK CPI would induce the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee to announce a pause today at its scheduled meeting.

ESZs traded modestly higher during early Asian trading. They turned negative after 20:00 ET and declined until the 1 ET Nikkei close. ESZs hit a daily low of 4484.25 at the Nikkei close. ESZs then jumped into the European open on the usual Pump & Dump scheme and UK August CPI, which was released at 2 ET.

ESZs and stocks waffled from the 3 ET European opening until they commenced a rally at 4:16 ET that took ESZs to a daily high of 4508.00 at 9:13 ET. The US Dump started early; ESZs slid to 4497.25 at 9:31 ET. Buying for Fed Day then propelled ESZs to 4507.50 near 10:00 ET. Another dump appeared; ESZs fell to a new NYSE session low of 4494.25 near 11:39 ET.

ESZs rebounded to 4503.00 at 12:57 ET. They broke down at 13:30 ET. Usually ESZs rally into the FOMC Communique release (14:00 ET). The S&P 500 Index hit new daily low of 4447.86. At 13:53 ET, ESZs jumped higher on the usual buying into the FOMC Communique release.

As expected, the Fed did not hike its funds rate. However, ESZs and stocks tumbled because the Fed forecast now shows just two rate cuts in 2024 instead of four.

FOMC Communique HighlightsThe Fed forecast now shows just two rate cuts in 2024 instead of 412 Officials see one more rate hike this year; 7 see a holdMedian rate forecast stays at 5.6%; 2024 rises to 5.1%The Fed hiked its GDP forecast to 2.1% from 1% in JuneInflation remains elevatedSees unemployment at 3.8% vs. 4.1% in June; see peak at 4.1% rather than 4.5%Jobs gains slowed in recent rates but remains strongReiterates that the US bank system is sound and resilienthttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20230920a1.pdf

ESZs hit a low of 4478.00 at 14:01 ET. The usual rebound into Powell’s presser appeared. ESZs hit 4500.00 at14:33 ET on hope that Powell would throw bulls a bone.

Powell Press Conference Highlights
Full effects of tightening have not yet appearedProcess of getting to 2% inflation has a long way to goSee current stance of monetary policy as restrictiveInflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last yearFOMC decide to hide in light of how far we’ve comeFOMC prepared to hike further if appropriateLabor market remains tight, but better balance seenFOMC decisions depends on coming data
Powell Q&A HighlightsEconomic activity has been stronger than expected (Because gov data is bogus?)Need real rates to stay positive ‘for some time’We want convincing evidence that we have reached the appropriate rate levelWe must get to a place where we’re confident that we bring inflation to 2%We’re fairly close to where it needs to beStrong consumer spending is driving GDPSustained higher energy prices can affect inflationThe Fed doesn’t comment of government shutdown prospects
ESZs sank to new lows after Powell’s prepared remarks because he did NOT throw bulls a bone. ESZs hit a daily low of 4477.00 at 14:51 ET. Would the last-hour manipulation save stocks?

After a modest rally near 15:00 ET, ESZs abruptly dropped to new lows. After Powell ended his Q&A at 15:23 ET, the decline intensified. ESZs hit a low of 4446.00 at 15:59 ET.

Bonds rallied into the FOMC Communique; tanked after the release; rebounded back to daily highs before Powell’s presser and then declined when Powell didn’t mitigate the hawkish FOMC Communique.

@bespokeinvest: 2-yr yield up to 5.12% after dipping to 5.04% prior to the Fed’s 2 PM ET rate decision.

Biden unveils massive govt work program to fight global warming – Biden’s climate corps will hire ‘diverse generation’ of 20,000 Americans to ‘tackle climate change’; no work experience required
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-unveils-massive-govt-work-program-to-fight-global-warming

Positive aspects of previous session.
Stocks rallied early on Fed Day buying a ‘good’ UK August CPI Report

Negative aspects of previous session
Stocks tanked and USZs tumbled to -24/32 from +22/32 after the hawkish FOMC Communique
The NY Fang+ Index turned negative after 10 ET and remained in the red for the session

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Will the Fed hike in November or December?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4421.54
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4461.03; 4401.38

@BarakRavid: The Biden-Netanyahu meeting in NY is delayed for more than 20 minutes now. Netanyahu is in Biden’s hotel waiting for the president. (Remember, The Big Guy struggles even more in the AM!)

@RNCResearch: Biden again refuses to take questions as he kicks the press out of the room following his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1704522625693680040

@Jkylebass: Does anyone remember how Huawei began? Chinese Communist Party operatives STOLE Cisco’s most advanced router at the time (in 1987). They stole the design for the chassis, the IOS, and all the way to implementing the intentional spelling errors in the source code…
    Cisco sued Huawei and Huawei settled out of court and kept the settlement terms quiet. This is exactly how the Chinese Government obtains many of the world’s top technologies…
    They had no R&D expense, no difficulty with the brazen theft, and then set their sights on Nortel…
     It amazes me to this day that any world government organized under a rule of law (and concerned for their national security) would allow Huawei, ZTE (multiple cases of bribery documented globally), or China Telecom into their countries…

White House told U.S. ambassador to Japan to stop taunting China on social media
Rahm Emanuel has mocked Chinese President Xi Jinping, speculating about the recent disappearance of a top official.  https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/rahm-emanuel-mock-china-ambassador-rcna105982

Researchers Alarmed to Find DNA Contamination in Pfizer Vaccine
Phillip Buckhaults, a cancer genomics expert, and professor at the University of South Carolina has testified before a South Carolina Senate Medical Affairs Ad-Hoc Committee saying that Pfizer’s mRNA vaccine is contaminated with billions of tiny DNA fragments…
    He said it’s a plausible mechanism for what might be “causing some of the rare but serious side effects like death from cardiac arrest” in people following mRNA vaccination.
https://brownstone.org/articles/researchers-alarmed-to-find-dna-contamination-in-pfizer-vaccine/

@AFP: Saudis will ‘get’ nuclear weapon if Iran does first: crown prince
@AFP: Crown prince says Saudi ‘closer’ to Israel normalization

@AFP: Poland will no longer arm Ukraine to focus on its own defense, Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Wednesday, a few hours after Warsaw summoned Kyiv’s ambassador amid a row over grain exports.

Today – The more hawkish than expected FOMC Communique surprised The Street. At 21:00 ET, USZs are 117 11/32, -1 7/32. The US 10-year is 4.45%. The 2-year is 5.184%, the highest yield since 2006.   The fixed income carnage has ESZs down 10.50. If these futures don’t rally during Asian or European trading, early US trading could be ugly.

After the equity tumble yesterday afternoon, there could be a relief rally if the early going is ugly. However, the technical damage exacted on equities is very troubling. The S&P 500 Index has made a new September low. The very important August low of 4225.31 might be challenged soon.

Expected econ data: FOQ2 Current Account -$221.0B; Initial Jobless Claims 225k, Continuing Claims 1.668m; Sept Phil Fed Business Outlook -1.0; Aug Existing Homes Sales 4.1m; Aug LET -0.5%

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4484; 100-day MA: 4374; 150-day MA: 4260; 200-day MA: 4188
DJIA 50-day MA: 34,864; 100-day MA: 35,269; 150-day MA: 33,868; 200-day MA: 33,810
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3814.46 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4586.76 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4502.60 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4464.92 triggers a buy signal

Attorney General Garland says he does not remember speaking with FBI about Hunter Biden probe (‘I don’t recall’ and ‘I cannot remember’ are verbal subterfuge to avoid incrimination.)
“Have you had personal contact with anyone at FBI headquarters about the Hunter Biden investigation?” Rep. Mike Johnson, R-La., asked Garland during a House Judiciary Committee hearing Wednesday on Justice Department oversight.  “Uh, I don’t real– I don’t– I don’t recollect the answer to that question, but the FBI works for the Justice Department,” Garland responded…
    “I’m sorry,” Johnson interrupted. “You don’t recollect whether you’ve talked with anybody at FBI headquarters about an investigation into the president’s son?” “I don’t believe that I did,” Garland said.
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/attorney-general-garland-says-he-does-not-remember-speaking-fbi-about-hunter

@JonathanTurley: Attorney General Garland just refused to answer if he has had any conversations with U.S. Attorney David Weiss. He is claiming that even confirming such conversations would abridge confidential communications.

@HouseGOP: AG Merrick Garland just admitted that David Weiss did NOT have full authority during the Hunter Biden investigation. “They could refuse to partner with him.”  This directly contradicts Garland’s previous claims about Weiss’ authority.  https://twitter.com/HouseGOP/status/1704509934577094938
    IRS whistleblower attorney @tristanleavitt: Not only COULD they refuse to bring charges, they DID—in both D.C. and the Central District of California, where the Biden-appointed U.S. attorneys never recused themselves from making prosecutorial decisions about the President’s son.

@joelpollak: Republicans on House Judiciary Committee grill Merrick Garland about why the DOJ allowed the statute of limitations to expire on the earlier Hunter Biden tax charges having to do with Burisma income. Garland defers to prosecutorial discretion. It’s a pretty lame non-explanation.

@greg_price11: Rep. @RepThomasMassie questions Merrick Garland on Ray Epps: “You indicted him on a misdemeanors and meanwhile you’re sending grandmas to prison. You’re putting people away for 20 years for merely filming. Some weren’t even there but you got the guy on video saying go into the Capitol, he’s at the sight of first breach, and it’s an indictment on a misdemeanor.”
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1704525116762128821

@alx: Rep. Thomas Massie: “Elon Musk was a Democrat who admittedly supported Biden but then he became a critic of the administration and exposed the censorship regime. Now per public reports the DOJ has opened not one but two investigations of Elon Musk… Mark Zuckerberg on the other hand spent $400 million in 2020 tilting the election secretly to Democrats. No investigation… To the American public, these look like mafia tactics…” https://twitter.com/alx/status/1704524483065749636

Feds thwarted probe into possible ‘criminal violations’ involving 2020 Biden campaign, agents say
The FBI and IRS probed allegations that Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign may have benefitted from “campaign finance criminal violations” by allowing a politically connected lawyer to help pay off Hunter Biden’s large tax debts but agents were blocked by federal prosecutors from further action, according to new information uncovered by congressional investigators.  That evidence includes a case summary memo written by IRS Supervisory Criminal Investigative Agent Gary Shapley to his bosses dated May 3, 2021 in which he alleged that Lesley Wolf, a top prosecutor in the Hunter Biden case inside Delaware U.S. Attorney David Weiss’ office, waived agents off the campaign finance case.
     “AUSA Wolf stated on the last prosecution team meeting that she did not want any of the agents to look into the allegation… She cited a need to focus on the 2014 tax year, that we could not yet prove an allegation beyond a reasonable doubt, and that she does not want to include their Public Integrity Unit because they would take authority away from her. We do not agree with her obstruction on this matter.”… https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/fbi-irs-probed-possible-criminal-violations-involving-joe-bidens

@RNCResearch: CNN: “There’s certainly some anxiety within the administration as they see these [illegal immigration] numbers grow — AGAIN.” There have been a staggering 45,000 illegal immigrant encounters at the border in just the past FIVE DAYS. https://t.co/8BAYniUGSc

Mayorkas taps ‘spies who lied’ for new ‘intelligence experts group’ https://trib.al/HHxNvNK
The so-called “spies who lied” — former CIA director John Brennan, former National Intelligence Director James Clapper, and former CIA senior operations officer Paul Kolbe — will serve on the Department of Homeland Security’s recently-announced “Homeland Intelligence Experts Group” panel.

Fox’s @ChadPergram: Written statement from Dem PA Sen Fetterman: If those jagoffs in the House stop trying to shut our government down, and fully support Ukraine, then I will save democracy by wearing a suit on the Senate floor next week. (Ladies & gentlemen, ‘the greatest deliberative body’)

@CitizenFreePres: John Fetterman, in a hoodie and shorts, is presiding over the US Senate today.
https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1704536200994857443

CNN posts lowest weekend ratings in key demo (25-54) in its recorded history
https://nypost.com/2023/09/19/cnn-records-lowest-ratings-in-demo-in-its-recorded-history/

Illinois State Sen. Elgie Sims predicted a man who threatened him with a gun in 2021 would be jailed under the SAFE-T Act – On Day 1 of cashless bail, a Chicago man facing nearly identical charges went home, no restrictions. Prosecutors didn’t even try to jail him.  https://t.co/sViYhDgx7O

GREG HUNTER

as a heads up, I will not be doing a commentary this Monday and Wednesday

I will provide just preliminary comex data

see you on FRIDAY