SEPT 26//GOLD FINISHED THE WHACKING DAY DOWN $13.40 TO $1901.95//SILVER WAS DOWN ANOTHER 20 CENTS TO $22.94//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $23.60 TO $907.55//PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $29.60 TO $1925.90//THE USA CONTINUES TO USE THE DOLLAR AS A FINANCIAL WEAPON//IMPT COMMENTARIES TODAY FROM PAM AND RUSS MARTENS//EVERGRANDE MISSES ANOTHER PAYMENTS AND THIS CAUSES HUGE MESS IN CHINA FINANCES//SEYMOUR HERSH STATES THAT THE UKRAINE-RUSSIA WAR IS OVER AND RUSSIA WINS//USA IS STILL PAYING UKRAINIAN PENSIONS PLANS AND SOLDIERS///USA DATA; HUGE BANK WITHDRAWFULS AS WE ARE NOW IN A FULL BANK RUN ON OUR MAJOR BANKS//HOME SALES PLUMMET YET HOUSE PRICES REMAIN AT HIGHEST LEVELS///DALLAS FED AREA FINANCES IN SHAMBLES: ENTERING STAGLATION!!
Bitcoin morning price:, $26,306 DOWN 335 Dollars FROM FRIDAY
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $26,241 DOWN 400 dollars
Platinum price closing $931.15 DOWN $23.60
Palladium price; $1255.50 DOWN $29.60
END
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Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS
CANADIAN GOLD: $2,568,43 DOWN 8.99 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)
BRITISH GOLD: 1563.22 DOWN 5.75 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)
EURO GOLD: 1797.44 DOWN 11.71 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX CONTRACT:
SEPTEMBER 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES SETTLEMENT
: 1,916.600000000 USD INTENT DATE: 09/25/2023
DELIVERY DATE: 09/27/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED ____________________________________________________________________________________________ 323 H HSBC 2 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1 624 H
BOFA SECURITIES 80 661 C
JP MORGAN 21 690 C
ABN AMRO 1 726 C
CUNNINGHAM COM
4 737 C ADVANTAGE 103 1 905 C
ADM 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________ TOTAL: 107 107 MONTH TO DATE: 4,865
JPMorgan stopped 21/107 contracts.
FOR SEPT.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2023. CONTRACT: 107 NOTICES FOR 10700 OZ or 0.3328 TONNES
total notices so far: 4865 contracts for 486,500 oz (15.132 tonnes)
FOR SEPT:
SILVER NOTICES: 45 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 225,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 2693 for 13,465,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $8.99
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / SMALL CHANGES/A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/
INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 13 CENTS AT THE SLV// SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.641 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 448.392 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY STRONG SIZED 650 CONTRACTS TO 125,699 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.41 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A HUGE SIZED 888 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: 888 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.41). AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 423 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 700 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 14.420 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE. JUMP OF 75,000 OZ//NEW TOTAL 13.465 MILLION OZ + OUR CRIMINAL ISSUANCE OF 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS//NEW TOTALS EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.0 MILLION OZ: NEW TOTALS SILVER STANDING: 16.465 MILLION OZ// /// / //STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 385CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -74 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 16 days, total 11,322 contracts: OR 56.610 MILLION OZ (707 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 56.610 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 56.610 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 650 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.41 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 227 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 14.2 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 75,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP .+ 0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK//PRIOR TOTAL FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 3.0 MILLION OZ/TOTAL EXCH. FOR RISK /NEW TOTALS STANDING 16.465 MILLION OZ// /// WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 423 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUMONGOUS SIZED 888 CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (888) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 45 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 225,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2855 CONTRACTS TO 437,127 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED: –832 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 2855 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $9.00 LOSS IN PRICE//MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 12.656 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 9900 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL STANDING 15.1509 TONNES + /A FAIR (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 820 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR$9.00 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4970 OI CONTRACTS (15.438 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 6693CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 437,127
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4138 CONTRACTS WITH 2855 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 6993 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4136CONTRACTS OR 12.87 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 820 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (6993 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (2855) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4138 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT. AT 12.656 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 9,900 OZ/// 3) STRONG LONG LIQUIDATION ALONG WITH TAS LIQUIDATION C DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 820 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
SEPT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 49,880 CONTRACTS OR 4,988,000 OZ OR 155.147 TONNES IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3117 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 155.147 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 155.147/3550 x 100% TONNES 4.36% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 155.147 TONNES (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 650 CONTRACTS OI TO 125,699 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A SMALL 227 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 700and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 227 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 650 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 227 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 423 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 2.115 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALL $0.41 LOSS IN PRICE …..
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING//MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.33 PTS OR 0.53% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 262.39 PTS OR 1.48%/ /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 363.57 PTS OR 01.11% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.55 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.3095 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.3104 /Oil DOWN TO 88.86 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 92.32 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2023CONTRACTS TO 437,959 WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $9.00 ON MONDAY.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 6993 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 6993 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 6993 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED TOTAL OF 4138 CONTRACTS IN THAT 6993LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2855 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $9.00//MONDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR 820 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: SEPT (15.1508) ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.1508 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $9.00) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF 4138 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF MONDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 12.87 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT. (12.656 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 9900 OZ//NEW STANDING 15.1508 TONNES // ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $9.00.
WE HAD – REMOVED 832 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4138 CONTRACTS OR 413,800 OZ OR 12.87 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4865 notices 486,500 OZ 15.132 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: NIL oz
customer deposits: 1
i) Into ASAHI: 64,461.209 oz
total customer deposits: 64,461.209 oz
we had 0 customer withdrawals
total withdrawals nil oz
Adjustments; 2 dealer to customer
i) 385.812 jpmorgan
ii) Manfra 94,427.487 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER.
For the front month of SEPTEMBER we have an oi of 113 contracts having LOST 684 contracts. We had
783 contracts were served on MONDAY, so we GAINED an additional 99 CONTRACTS or AN ADDITIONAL 9900 oz will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of Sept
Oct LOST 2277 contracts to 18,708 contracts.
NOV GAINED 41 CONTRACTS to stand at 469
December LOST 855 contracts down to 374,381 contracts.
We had 107 contracts filed for today representing 10700 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 107 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 21 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT /2023. contract month,
we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4865 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (113 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 107 x 100 oz per contract equals 487,100 OZ OR 15.1508 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non active month of SEPT.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTcontract month: No of notices filed so far (4865) x 100 oz + (113) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (107) x 100 oz) which equals 487,100 oz standing OR 15.1508 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 15.1508 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN INACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
total pledged gold: 2,022,307.541 OZ 62.913 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 20,956,655.412 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,794,347.871 (335,74 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,252,307.541 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,681,689 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 270.03 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
SEPT 26
//2023// THE SEPT 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,781,680.213 oz ASAHI CNT Delaware
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,243,425.935 oz CNT Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)
45 CONTRACT(S) (225,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts (NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
2693 Contracts (13,465,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: 0
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 2 deposit customer account:
i) Into CNT 599,495.465 oz
ii) Into Loomis: 643,930.400 oz
total customer deposit 1,243,425.925 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 136.312 million oz/270.652 million or 50.37%
Comex withdrawals 1
i) Out of ASAHI: 746,044.600 oz
ii) Out of CNT 408,661.113 oz
iii) Out of Delaware 26,866.250 oz
total: 1,781.680.213 oz oz
adjustments: JPMorgan//dealer to customer
i) 2,581,618.830 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 39.481 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 270.682 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF SEPT /2023 OI: 45 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 14 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 1
CONTRACT SERVED ON MONDAY. SO WE GAINED 15 CONTRACTS OR 75,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX..
OCT LOST 33 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 660.
NOVEMBER GAINED 30 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 192
DEC. LOST 840 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 112,388 .
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 45 for 225,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 50,656 poor
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 58,626 poor
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2693 x 5,000 oz = 13,365,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (45) and the number of notices served upon today 45 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the SEPT/2023 contract month: 2693 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPT (45) – number of notices served upon today (45 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates to 13.465 million oz. + 0 MILLION EXCHANGE FOR RISK..NEW TOTALS EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 3.0 MILLION OZ//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SILVER: 16.465 MILLION OZ//
There are 42.062 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.40 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.83 TONNES
SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.60 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
SEPT 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 15/WITH GOLD UP $13.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.055 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.70 TONNES
SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.01 TONNES
SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.22 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.69 TONNES
SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.81 TONNES
SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES
SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES
AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD UP 17.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $6.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES
AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES
AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES
AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $21.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES
AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $2.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES
AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD UP $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 887.50 TONNES
AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.42 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 878.52 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.492 MILLION OZ
SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449,033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 19/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.1 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.651 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.332 MILLION OZ
SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.681 MILLION OZ
SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1,009 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 11/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.373 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ
SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.625 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.834 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.210 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OF SILVER INTO THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 445.044 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.281 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.861 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.751 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.145 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.651 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.896 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 94 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.547 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 917,0000 OZ FROM THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
On March 30, 2022, two highly troubling events occurred: (1) Fed data showed that unrealized losses on available-for-sale securities at the 25 largest U.S. banks were approaching the levels they had reached during the financial crisis in 2008; and (2) the Fed simply stopped reporting unrealized gains and losses on these banks’ securities.
As the chart above indicates, the Fed had reported this data series from October 2, 1996 to March 30, 2022 – and then, poof, it was gone and could no longer be graphed weekly at FRED, the St. Louis Fed’s Economic Data website. (See cha rt above from FRED.) On the same date, the Fed also discontinued the weekly data for unrealized losses or gains on available-for-sale securities at all commercial banks and small banks.)
This data series was halted after the Fed had embarked on March 17, 2022 on the first leg of 11 consecutive rate increases, at the fastest pace in 40 years. The Fed took its benchmark Fed Funds rate from 0.00 – 0.25 percent on March 16, 2022 to 5.25 – 5.50 percent by its last rate hike on July 27 of this year.
The Fed had little choice but to hike rates at this speed because the U.S. was facing spiraling inflation pressures.
Unfortunately for U.S. banks, these rate hikes came after the banks had loaded up on low interest rate Treasury securities and federal agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). The banks had loaded up on these securities because their deposit balances had swollen to an historic level as a result of the trillions in stimulus payments that the federal government direct-deposited into depositor accounts at banks to deal with the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic and related business closures negatively impacted business loan demand so banks turned to government-backed bonds as a safe place to park the trillions of dollars in extra deposits.
As interest rates rise, the market value of bonds issued with much lower fixed interest rates lose market value. That’s because those bonds pay less interest than the newer bonds with higher fixed rates of interest and thus have less desirability to investors. This effect is expressed this way: bonds have an inverse relationship to interest rates.
Since this formula is one of the first things that a rookie trader learns at a bond trading desk, why would banks think they could just skip the cost of hedging this massive risk?
To fully appreciate what big banks have been getting away with since they crashed the U.S. economy in 2008, let’s take a look at what Citigroup reported on its 10-K (annual report) filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the last quarter of 2008: (See page 160 at this link.)
“SFAS 115 requires transfers of securities out of the trading category be rare. Citigroup made a number of transfers out of the trading and available- for-sale categories [to the held-to-maturity category] in order to better reflect the revised intentions of the Company in response to the recent significant deterioration in market conditions, which were especially acute during the fourth quarter of 2008…
“The December 31, 2008 carrying value of the securities transferred from Trading account assets and available-for-sale securities was $33.3 billion and $27.0 billion, respectively. The Company purchased an additional $4.2 billion of held-to-maturity securities during the fourth quarter of 2008, in accordance with prior commitments.”
At the end of the fourth quarter of 2008, Citigroup had swelled its held-to-maturity securities to a carrying value of $64.46 billion and had this to say about the transfers into the held-to-maturity category:
“The net unrealized losses classified in accumulated other comprehensive income that relates to debt securities reclassified from available-for- sale investments to held-to-maturity investments was $8.0 billion as of December 31, 2008…This will have no impact on the Company’s net income, because the amortization of the unrealized holding loss reported in equity will offset the effect on interest income of the accretion of the discount on these securities.”
For the basket case condition of Citigroup at the end of 2008, see our report at the time: The Rise and Fall of Citigroup.
Moving securities around in a shell game to disguise ongoing losses is not what most Americans want at federally-insured banks backstopped by the U.S. taxpayer.
Under a highly controversial accounting rule, held-to-maturity (HTM) debt instruments are not marked to market or shown on the bank’s balance sheet at fair value, but are instead listed at amortized cost – effectively what was paid for the debt instrument at the time of its purchase, even if its current market value is 20 or 30 percent (or an even greater percentage) below its original cost.
The HTM accounting treatment is allowing banks to create an illusion on their balance sheet as to what their assets are worth. The bigger the dollar amounts held as HTM investment securities, the bigger the illusion. (While fair value for HTM securities and unrealized losses are provided in supplemental charts in SEC filings, the fair value is not reflected in the asset value on the balance sheet itself – leaving the average shareholder clueless as to what the bank’s assets are actually valued at by the market.)
The largest bank in the U.S., JPMorgan Chase, has transferred massive amounts of securities into the held-to- maturity category. According to JPMorgan Chase’s 10-K for the period ending December 31, 2022, it was holding $425.3 billion in HTM securities, which actually have a fair market value of just $388.6 billion or an unrealized loss of $36.7 billion.
Despite this hubris, the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, is leading the attack on federal regulators who want to increase capital levels at banks with $100 billion or more in assets in order to protect the safety and soundness of the U.S. banking system.
To get a handle on these unrealized losses across the banking industry, one has to now wait on the FDIC’s Quarterly Banking Profile instead of being able to go to FRED weekly and graph the situation. (Individual banks report the unrealized losses or gains in their quarterly call reports as well as on their 10-Q quarterly filings with the SEC. But a lot of nasty stuff can happen in the span of three months, as Americans learned earlier this year when the second, third and fourth largest bank failures in U.S. history occurred.)
According to the FDIC, as of June 30, 2023, “Unrealized losses on securities totaled $558.4 billion in the second quarter, up $42.9 billion (8.3 percent) from the prior quarter. Unrealized losses on held-to-maturity securities totaled $309.6 billion in the second quarter, while unrealized losses on available-for-sale securities totaled $248.9 billion.”
Adding to the stresses at the 25 largest banks, their deposits have fallen by $920 billion since April 13, 2022. (See chart below.) This is a result of some of their uninsured deposits taking flight because of the lingering fears caused by the bank failures this year; competition from higher interest rates being offered by smaller competitors; and the attractiveness of short-term U.S. Treasury securities that now yield over 5 percent.
-END-
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
Just in case you missed this important podcast..
Andrew Maguire….
West’s suppressed gold price is increasingly arbitraged in East, Maguire says
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2023-09-24 12:00Section: Daily Dispatches
11:59a Sunday, September 24, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
On Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program this week, London gold trader Andrew Maguire says suppressed Western gold prices are increasingly being arbitraged with higher prices in the East, especially in barter trade for oil in Russia.
Maguire adds that gold is perfect currency for evading Western economic sanctions, especially for oil, and that China is preparing to evade sanctions resulting from the attack it is planning on Taiwan.
The program is 42 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
END
Jim Rickards on digital cash…
(Jim Rickards)
Jim Rickards: The digital cattle pen is here already
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-09-25 19:40Section: Daily Dispatches
By James G. Rickards The Daily Reckoning, Baltimore Monday, September 25, 2023
When I talk about the war on cash and a cashless society, some people think I’m exaggerating the threat or they don’t take it seriously.
But I’m not exaggerating the threat. It’s here, it’s growing, and it’ll only get worse. Today I’ll show you the latest example.
The proponents of the cashless society cite convenience as a major benefit. Why bother having to tote a bunch of cumbersome cash and coins around when you can just swipe a card or pay with your smartphone?
Besides, they say, cash enables criminal activity on the black market. Cash is the money of crime. And in some respects, they’re right.
Swiping a card or scanning your smartphone is certainly easier than having to get cash from a bank or ATM and lugging it around in your wallet, dealing with change, etc.
If you eliminated cash and replaced it with digital money, it would impact the black market (though they’d figure out a workaround).
Meanwhile, cash is costlier to produce than digital money and unlike with cash, you don’t need to hire a Brinks truck to move digital money around. No more bank robberies! And all those truck drivers and security guards can now learn to code!
You get the point. And that’s why the war on cash has been so successful. Digital money is simply more convenient to use than cash.
And the surest way to lull someone into complacency is to offer a “convenience” that quickly becomes habit and impossible to do without. …
Tanzania has started to add domestic gold purchases to boost forex reserves.
(Reuters)
Tanzania has started domestic gold purchases to boost forex reserves
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-09-25 20:08Section: Daily Dispatches
By Nuzulack Dausen Reuters Monday, September 25, 2023
DAR ES SALAAM, Tanzania — Tanzania has started buying gold locally as a way of boosting its foreign exchange reserves, the central bank said today.
The central bank announced its intention of buying gold in late August.
“The bank is therefore purchasing gold from domestic miners and traders, in Tanzanian shillings,” Bank of Tanzania said in a statement.
On Friday central bank Governor Emmanuel Tutuba said the bank was planning to buy six tonnes of gold from small and middle-scale miners and other traders by the end of the year and had already bought and sold 418 kg (921.53 lb) of the precious metal. …
The weak Chinese yuan is also spurring a retail gold rush in China
(SCMP)
Why a weak yuan is spurring a retail gold rush in China
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2023-09-25 22:33Section: Daily Dispatches
The spread between the domestic and international price for the precious metal is at a decade high; Chinese consumers are racing for safety as they see their assets dwindle
By He Huifeng South China Morning Post, Hong Kong Tuesday, September 26, 2023
With the yuan weak, housing in the doldrums and stocks as insecure as ever, China’s working and middle class are turning to one investment option that is regaining some shine: gold.
For Chinese consumers with limited access to overseas investment products, the precious metal is one of the few ways they can try to counter the shrinking value of their other assets.
he yuan is only expected to weaken, but most Chinese individuals cannot buy U.S. dollars or U.S. dollar-denominated products to hedge against the Chinese currency’s fall.
Against that backdrop, the easiest option for the public is to buy gold bars or gold jewellery at retail outlets, even if it means paying extra in processing fees.
The interest has sent spot gold prices in China to 13-year highs and widened the spread with the international price to the most in a decade.
As of Monday, the spot price of gold was over 473 yuan (US$64.71) per gram, resulting in a gap of about 4.7% between the domestic and international gold price in China.
In mid-September the retail price for gold from main brands, such as Chow Tai Fook, Chow Sang Sang, and China Gold, had risen to 600 yuan per gram, but buyers were still not deterred.
On Chinese microblogging site Weibo, one post on the rising price of gold jewellery was read more than 48 million times within a day of publication.
Fred Qiu, a business-development manager for a jewellery brand in eastern China, said there were more customers for the precious metal at his company’s stores, but different products appealed to different generations.
“Little one-gram beans of gold are particularly attractive to Gen Z customers, while young couples and middle-class women prefer gold bars — the 10-gram and 50-gram bars are especially popular,” Qiu said. …
4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES//ANDREW MAGUIRE/LIVE FROM THE VAULT 141
-END-
END
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:ORANGE JUICE
US Orange Juice Prices Hit Record Highs As Supplies Tumble To 1968 Lows
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, SEP 26, 2023 – 02:05 PM
Orange juice futures have surged to record highs as stockpiles in the US tumble to a half-century low due to Florida citrus groves battered by years of disease and hurricanes. It’s a perfect storm hitting the OJ market, as supermarket prices have risen this year. Fortunately, suppliers have ramped up imports from Brazil to mitigate sliding US inventories.
Bloomberg cites new data from the US Department of Agriculture that shows frozen orange juice concentrate fell to 235.5 million pounds by the end of August. This marks the lowest level since December 1968 and comes as Florida’s 2022-23 season is the weakest since the 1936-37 harvest. As a result, OJ futures have tripled in the last several years, nearing $3 per pound.
“Low stocks and a dim outlook for future output from Florida and Brazil have also driven up futures prices to record highs in September,” Bloomberg said.
In July, industry group CitrusBR said exports of orange juice from Brazil to the US jumped 55% for the 12 months ended in June. This means more Americans than ever are drinking OJ from Florida Brazil.
“Even if the next Florida crop shows some slight recovery, production levels are already set to be very low,” said Ibiapaba Netto, executive director at CitrusBR.
Breakfast lovers can’t catch a break after two years of food inflation.
ND
END
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3095
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.3104
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.33 PTS OR 0.53%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 262.39 PTS OR 1.11%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 363.57 PTS OR 1.11 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 105.69 EURO RISES TO 1.0606 UP 15 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.730 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 148.84/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.7715***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 4.674*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.856…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.223
3j Gold at $1910.75 silver at: 23.02 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 5 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 96.19//
3m oil into the 88 dollar handle for WTI and 92 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 148.84// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.730% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.91212 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9675well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.498 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.619 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.123 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.27…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 0 BASIS PTS AT 4.3260
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
USA EARLY MORNING REPORT
Futures Slide With Yields Lower As Dollar Hits 9 Month High
TUESDAY, SEP 26, 2023 – 08:09 AM
US equity futures are weaker, reversing Monday’s modest gains amid a global risk-off tone that has sent European and Asian markets sliding, and which JPM’s market intel team says is “a trend that may continue throughout the week.” As of 7:30am, S&P futures were down 0.4%, off the worst levels of the session, while Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.5%. Yields on TSYs and European govvies dropped after hitting decade highs even as the Bloomberg dollar index extended gains following its strongest close since December. Oil retreated as the impact of a rising dollar sapped demand. There is a $48bn auction for 2Y bonds today; this likely requires some concession to be digested and is the first of several auctions this week that are larger than normal size. Today’s macro data focus includes housing prices, new home sales, regional Fed activity surveys, and consumer confidence.
In premarket trading, Tesla shares were 1.5% lower, after Bloomberg reported that during the evidence-gathering that precipitated this month’s surprise announcement of an EU anti-subsidy probe into Chinese EVs, the US carmaker was among the companies found to have likely benefited, according to people familiar with the matter. Coty was down 3.3% after offering 33 million shares as part of a plan by the beauty company to add a Paris stock listing. Thor Industries dropped 2.4% even after the recreation vehicle firm reported net sales that beat estimates, with analysts citing potential slower production and revenue rebound pace as well as a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
DraftKings rises 3.4% after JPMorgan upgrades the online sports-betting company to overweight from neutral, citing sluggish share-price performance since late July, as well as the attractive sector it operates in and industrywide improving expense control.
Fisker gains 4.7% after saying it has built 5,000 Fisker Ocean SUVs and expects to ramp deliveries of the Ocean to 300 vehicle per day later this year.
Immunovant jumps 56% after the company announced top-line results from an early-stage trial of its drug for autoimmune diseases. Majority shareholder Roivant Sciences is also up 17% before the market open.
Omega Therapeutics shares slide 4.3% after it announced preliminary clinical data from a trial of its drug candidate for liver cancer.
Pliant Therapeutics is up 20% ahead of a call the company set for Tuesday morning to discuss interim mid-stage clinical trial data.
United Natural Foods falls 13% after issuing a profit outlook for the fiscal year that missed the average analyst estimate. The food wholesaler also added three new members to its board as part of its ongoing customer- and supplier-focused transformation plan.
Overnight, JPM CEO Jamie Dimon warned the world may not be ready for a worst-case scenario of the Fed raising rates to 7% along with stagflation; at the same time Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari said he expects one more hike this year.
The threat of tight policy is undoing some of the market’s biggest gains this year, in high-flying tech stocks. These growth companies are prized for their long-term prospects but hold less appeal when future profits get discounted at higher rates. That’s reflected in growing short positions against the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index. According to Citi, positioning in the Nasdaq 100 is now one-sided net short at $8.1 billion, with all long positions unwound.
“With weak but positive growth holding recession at bay on both sides of the Atlantic, central banks will not be able to ease financial conditions between now and the end of the year,” said Nadège Dufossé, global head of multi asset funds at Candriam. “With positive surprises now largely priced in, there seems to be little room for further appreciation in equity markets, suggesting a degree of caution on risky assets.”
One Fed speaker after another in the past week has delivered emphatic messages that they will keep policy tighter for longer if the economy is stronger than expected. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said he expects the US central bank will need to raise interest rates one more time this year. Data on US consumer confidence and manufacturing activity expected later Tuesday could provide more clues on the outlook for the economy and monetary policy.
Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that Senate Republicans and Democrats are closing in on a deal for a short-term spending measure designed to avert a government shutdown. The legislation would extend funding for four to six weeks, a shorter timeframe than Democrats had pushed for, although it may cost speaker Kevin McCarthy his job. Moody’s warned that a government shutdown would be credit-negative.
In the latest development surrounding the Detroit-3 strikes, Joe Biden will visit a UAW picket line in Michigan later today. His trip comes as Ford’s largest labor union blasted it for halting construction on a $3.5 billion battery plant in the state. Adding to labor woes, performers in the video-game industry voted to authorize a strike.
European stocks dropped for a second day, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.4% as China property worries persist and investors process sharply higher bond yields. Technology and consumer shares fall the most while insurance and health care gain. Luxury stocks including Richemont and LVMH drop after Morgan Stanley lowered its earnings estimates on the sector, while Barclays is the Stoxx 600 index’s best performer after an upgrade. Here are the biggest movers on Tuesday:
Barclays shares rise as much as 3.1%, among top performers in the Stoxx 600 on Tuesday, after Morgan Stanley upgraded the UK bank to overweight, citing a better outlook for revenue and capital efficiency.
Siltronic shares gain as much as 5.7% after Stifel upgrades the German silicon wafer manufacturer to buy from hold and raises its price target to a Street high, saying the risk/reward profile has turned positive.
Elekta shares rise as much as 2.5% after SEB raised its recommendation for the Swedish medical technology firm to buy from hold, saying recent share-price weakness is unwarranted and consensus expectations are now favorable.
Asos shares fall as much as 6.9% after the online fast-fashion retailer reported adjusted like-for-like revenue down 15% in the fourth quarter. The company’s end to the year was “tough,” according to Jefferies.
TUI shares drop as much as 5.8% in London to the lowest on record amid broader market concern about a protracted period of high interest rates.
ASM International shares fall as much as 5.8% after giving new guidance for 2025 and beyond. Jefferies says the Dutch chip gear maker’s raised revenue target for 2025 of €3 billion to €3.6 billion is “somewhat underwhelming.”
Lanxess shares drop as much as 4.7% after analysts at Jefferies cut the price target cut to a Street low, citing weak earnings for the German specialty chemicals company.
CD Projekt shares decline as much as 5.3% after global release of paid add-on to Cyberpunk 2077 as analysts predict positive player opinions won’t be enough to push company sales above estimates.
Johnson Matthey shares fall as much a 2.5%, declining for the fourth consecutive day to lowest since August, after Jefferies cuts Ebit estimate for next year and price target, citing lower platinum grade metal prices affecting earnings at UK-based chemicals company.
Carmat shares plunge as much as 51% after the French developer of an artificial heart says it needs financing to fund its activities after the end of October.
Close Brothers shares fall as much as 7% after the UK merchant bank reported full-year results. Canaccord analysts say though outlook flagged a good start to FY24, there’s near-term cost pressure weighing on the firm.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined for a second day as surging Treasury yields and the ongoing property crisis in China dampened risk appetite. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index falls as much as 0.7%, with technology firms among the biggest drags on the gauge amid worries over higher-for-longer interest rates. Chinese stocks extended their slide, with a gauge of property developers slumping by the most in nine months as Evergrande missed a debt payment and former executives were detained. Former executives at the company have also been detained, while there are issues facing other developers like China Oceanwide and Country Garden too. The new turmoil engulfing property developers could jeopardize the latest efforts by authorities in the country to end the housing crisis.
“Ongoing China Evergrande’s debt-restructuring woes suggest that the worst-is-over for China’s property sector is far from being seen,” Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG Asia, wrote in a note. High bond yields and a firmer US dollar “did not provide much conviction for risk-taking for now,” he said.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with sentiment not helped by trade frictions after the US imposed restrictions on additional Chinese and Russian companies related to supplying Russia with components to make drones, although losses in the mainland were stemmed by another substantial liquidity operation and hope that the approaching Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day Golden Week holidays would provide a boost to consumption and economic activity.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was pressured following the acceleration in Services PPI data and as recent currency moves keep participants on their toes regarding FX intervention.
Australia’s ASX 200 was subdued by underperformance in real estate and tech as domestic yields climbed.
Korea’s tech-heavy benchmark was the worst performer in the region. The gauge hit its lowest level since May, weighed down by Samsung, SK Hynix and LG Energy Solution.
Stocks in India dropped on Tuesday, in line with most regional peers, as information technology shares extended slide on worries over interest rates staying higher for longer. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.1% to 65,945.47 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index was little changed at 19,664.70. The benchmark gauge has dropped for five out of six sessions through Tuesday. ICICI Bank contributed the most to the Sensex’s fall, decreasing 0.8%. Infosys and Tech Mahindra were key decliners among software makers as the sectoral gauge fell for a sixth consecutive session, its longest stretch of losses since March 16.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as much as 0.3% to a nine-month high. USDCHF rose as much as 0.3% to 0.9151, the highest since April; franc’s selloff enters a 11 day, the longest losing streak since 1975. USDJPY little changed at 148.84; it rose earlier to 149.19 and fell sharply after Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki’s warnings.
In rates, Treasury futures are higher on the day, unwinding a portion of Monday’s losses and following similar gains in core European rates. Curve has broadly held recent steepening move with 5s30s spread trading at around 4bp, near top of Monday’s range, while 2s10s spread is slightly flatter on the day. US session includes housing market and consumer confidence data, while auctions recommence with 2-year note sale. US yields are richer by 1bp to 3bp across the curve with gains led by 10-year sector, which trades around 4.505%, near day’s low; bunds trail by ~1bp in the sector while gilts trade broadly in line. The US 5s30s spread is steeper by 0.5bp on the day, while 2s10s is flatter by almost 2bp, unwinding portion of Monday’s sharp widening. Treasury auctions resume with $48b 2-year note sale at 1pm, with $49b 5-year and $37b 7-year notes scheduled later this week.
In commodities, crude futures decline with WTI falling 1.1% to trade bear $88.70. Spot gold falls 0.2%.
Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for September, the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for September, new home sales for August, and the FHFA house price index for July. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bowman, and the ECB’s Lane, Simkus and Holzmann.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 4,361.50
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 448.98
MXAP down 0.8% to 157.87
MXAPJ down 0.9% to 488.93
Nikkei down 1.1% to 32,315.05
Topix down 0.6% to 2,371.94
Hang Seng Index down 1.5% to 17,466.90
Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,102.27
Sensex little changed at 65,979.55
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 7,038.19
Kospi down 1.3% to 2,462.97
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.78%
Euro little changed at $1.0597
Brent Futures down 1.2% to $92.21/bbl
Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,914.82
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 105.97
Top Overnight News
China says it is willing to play a “constructive” role in the success of the upcoming APEC summit in San Francisco this Nov (markets are hoping Xi attends this event and meets with Biden). CNBC
The crisis at China Evergrande Group deepened Monday after the company’s mainland unit said it failed to repay an onshore bond, adding a new layer of uncertainty to the developer’s future as a restructuring plan with its offshore creditors teeters. BBG
Germany slashed the volume of gov’t bond issuance for Q4 by EU31B as support measures designed to shelter people from elevated energy costs begin to wind down. BBG
Italy’s budget, which is due out on Wed, will be closely scrutinized by markets as Meloni attempts to keep her tax cut promises while reducing the deficit, all in an environment of cooling growth. RTRS
US gov’t shutdown would delay publication of critical economic data, including the Sept BLS jobs report (due out on 10/6) and the Sept CPI (due out on 10/12). RTRS
Jamie Dimon repeats prior warnings of a potential worst-case scenario whereby the Fed is forced to hike rates to 7%. BBG
Global trade volumes slumped at their fastest pace since the pandemic during the month of July, a sign that rising rates are starting to weigh on economic activity. FT
Tesla will be investigated by the EU as part of its probe into China’s state subsidies for electric vehicles, people familiar said. Domestic manufacturers including BYD, SAIC Motor and Nio will also be probed, with the EU taking any necessary countervailing measures to level the playing field for their industry. BBG
Senate nearing a bipartisan compromise on a short-term continuing resolution (CR) that would keep the gov’t open for 4-6 weeks and once passed, McCarthy would come under pressure to bring it up for a vote. BBG
Americans outside the wealthiest 20% of the country have run out of extra savings and now have less cash on hand than they did when the pandemic began, according to the latest Federal Reserve study of household finances. For the bottom 80% of households by income, bank deposits and other liquid assets were lower in June this year than they were in March 2020, after adjustment for inflation. BBG
A More detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly lower with headwinds from the rising global yield environment. ASX 200 was subdued by underperformance in real estate and tech as domestic yields climbed. Nikkei 225 was pressured following the acceleration in Services PPI data and as recent currency moves keep participants on their toes regarding FX intervention. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with sentiment not helped by trade frictions after the US imposed restrictions on additional Chinese and Russian companies related to supplying Russia with components to make drones, although losses in the mainland were stemmed by another substantial liquidity operation and hope that the approaching Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day Golden Week holidays would provide a boost to consumption and economic activity.
Top Asian News
China’s MOFCOM said China and the EU reached agreements on supply chain cooperation in which the agreements also include WTO reform and financial opening, while China urged the EU to exercise prudence in trade remedy.
Alibaba (BABA), on the proposed spin-off and listing of Cainiao, said HKEX has confirmed that the Co. may proceed with the spin-off, while details have not yet been finalised, and added there is no assurance that the proposed spin-off will take place or when, according to Reuters.
Some Evergrande (3333 HK) offshore creditors are planning to join the winding-up petition in the event that no new debt restructuring plan is submitted by October 30th, according to Reuters sources.
China’s Auto Industry body CAAM said it hopes the EU will use trade remedy measures prudently, cautiously, and launch countervailing investigation with regards to measures against China’s EV products, according to Reuters.
Japan maintains its overall view on the economy for September, and said “it is recovering moderately”; raises its view on corporate profits in September for the first time since March 2022, suggesting it is “improving as a whole”, according to Reuters.
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said they are closely watching FX moves with a great sense of urgency, according to Reuters.
Japan is reportedly mulling tapping budget reserves that were originally set aside for COVID inflation countermeasures for upcoming economic package and extra budget, according to Reuters.
Japanese Cabinet Official said BoJ Governor Ueda told a top economic council meeting that it was important to nurture positive signs of change in corporate behaviour, according to Reuters.
Ex-BoJ board member Sakurai said the BoJ may hold off on ending negative rates until April, according to Reuters.
Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) and Kia (000270 KS) are to cut EV prices in South Korea until the end of the year. The Cos plan discounts as government expands subsidies for EV purchases. Cos sees EV sales remaining sluggish in South Korea, according to Bloomberg.
European bourses are on the backfoot but off the worst levels seen at the cash open despite a lack of fresh fundamental headlines, with the UK’s FTSE outperforming on a weaker GBP. Sectors in Europe are mostly lower with a slightly more defensive bias vs the cash open, with Healthcare and Utilities towards the top of the bunch while Tech remains the laggard. US futures are pressured amid a generally negative risk tone across the market and a lack of any fresh catalysts.
Top European News
ECB’s Simkus said policy is currently on track for 2% inflation in 2025. He would not rush with an answer when it comes to the timing of rate cuts, according to Bloomberg.
ECB’s Muller said he is not expecting additional rate hikes as things stand, according to Bloomberg.
UK will sign a trade pact with Washington state aimed at facilitating aerospace deals with the US, according to Bloomberg.
Germany cut its planned Q4 Federal debt issuance by EUR 31bln. The announced borrowing on the capital market will be reduced by EUR 8bln in Q4 and EUR 23bln less will be raised on the money market, according to the press release.
Chip-name ASM International (ASM NA) raised its 2025 revenue target and provided 2027 guidance at its Investor Day. Co. sees FY25 Revenue between EUR 3.0-3.6bln (prev. 2.8-3.4bln) while Q3 2023 was guidance reiterated, according to a press release.
FX
DXY has trimmed earlier upside after initially gaining more ground against the majority of its currency rivals amidst the ongoing rout in debt, and in the run-up to month end in which Citi and Barclays models both point to Dollar buying.
USD/JPY temporarily rose above 149.00 to a 149.19 high before reversing lower in conjunction with jawboning from Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki.
GBP/USD is among the laggards under 1.2200 against its US peer against the backdrop of softer UK short-end rates and yields.
EUR/USD bounced from 1.0570 to test 1.0600 to the upside where EUR 1.7bln option expiries are due to roll off at the NY cut.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1727 vs exp. 7.3174 (prev. 7.1727).
Credit Agricole FX Month-End Rebalancing: month-end portfolio-rebalancing flows are likely to be mild USD buying across the board with the strongest buy signal in the case of the USD vs the CAD.
Fixed Income
Bonds regained some composure with some aid from Germany’s Q4 issuance remit, which saw the expected reduction confirmed and was overall a positive development, but the bulk of the cut was at the short end.
Bunds are holding above 129.00 and BTPs defended 110.00 in wake of reasonable German and Italian auctions in relief more than positive response to the results.
Gilts plunged to 94.82 before rebounding to 95.64, while T-note fell to the edge of 108-00 at 108-05 before trimming losses to trade back towards 108-12+.
UK sold GBP 3bln 0.875% 2033 Green Gilt: b/c 2.56x (prev. 3.02x), average yield 4.315% (prev. 4.239%) and tail 1.3bps (prev. 0.2bps).
Germany sold EUR 3.25bln vs exp. EUR 4bln 2.40% 2028 Bobl: b/c 2.0x (prev. 2.1x), average yield 2.76% (prev. 2.56%) & retention 18.75% (prev. 15.15%)
Italy sold EUR 3bln vs exp. EUR 2.5-3.0bln 3.60% 2025 BTP & EUR 1.75bln vs. Exp. EUR 1.25-1.75bln 1.50% 2029, 2.55% 2041 BTPei.
Commodities
Crude futures are softer intraday following the choppy price action seen yesterday, while the European morning has seen continued downside across the complex as a result of the risk aversion seen across the broader markets.
Dutch TTF prices are lower by some 7% at the time of writing following the recent surge, which desks believe is due to the upcoming heating seasons, whilst Norway’s Troll field reportedly saw a delayed startup.
Spot gold and silver are subdued as the Dollar surged in early European trade, while copper prices are off worst levels and iron ore futures saw another session of losses in the East.
Geopolitics
South Korean President Yoon warned if North Korea uses nuclear weapons, the overwhelming response by South Korea and the US is to bring its regime to an end, while he added that only a strong military can ensure peace, according to Reuters.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said China opposes ‘wanton’ expansion of military alliances and squeezing the security space of other countries, according to Reuters.
China MOFCOM said China firmly opposes the US inclusion of some Chinese companies and individuals in the Iran list, according to Reuters.
Philippines Coast Guard said four Chinese Coast Guard vessels were nearby prior to the Philippines cutting the barrier at the South China Sea shoal and China removed the remnants of the barrier, while China’s Coast Guard was not that aggressive and saw media on board the Philippines vessel, according to Reuters.
US Event Calendar
09:00: July S&P CS Composite-20 YoY, est. -0.10%, prior -1.17%
July S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA, est. 0.70%, prior 0.92%
July FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%
10:00: Sept. Conf. Board Consumer Confidenc, est. 105.5, prior 106.1
Sept. Conf. Board Present Situation, prior 144.8
Sept. Conf. Board Expectations, prior 80.2
10:00: Aug. New Home Sales, est. 698,000, prior 714,000
Aug. New Home Sales MoM, est. -2.2%, prior 4.4%
10:00: Sept. Richmond Fed Index, est. -7, prior -7
Morning from New York where it seems I’ve taken London type weather with me. It was another stormy day for duration yesterday with fresh milestones reached across several different asset classes. Just to give you a sense of what happened: the 10yr Treasury yields rose +10.0bps and closed comfortably above 4.5% for the first time since 2007; 10yr real yields were near 15yr highs; the 10yr bund yield traded above 2.8% for the first time since 2011; the VIX index of volatility flirted with its highest level since May intra-day; the US dollar index hit a YTD high; and European natural gas prices reached their highest level in almost 6 months. And if that weren’t enough, we remain days away from a potential US government shutdown, unless Congress can agree to pass funding beyond September 30. So a pretty tough backdrop for just about everything. Having said that, the S&P 500 recouped a little of its recent losses to close +0.40% higher, as positive AI demand rhetoric from Amazon and a likely end to the Hollywood writers’ strike boosted tech sentiment.
Of course, the biggest story yesterday was the dramatic rise in sovereign bond yields, which left them at multi-year highs on both sides of the Atlantic. For example, the 10yr US Treasury yield ended the day up +10.0bps at a post-2007 high of 4.53%, and overnight they’re up a further +1.6bps to 4.55%. Meanwhile, the 30yr yield rose +12.8bps to a post-2011 high of 4.65%, and is up +1.6bps overnight to 4.67%. Watch out for the latest 30yr mortgage rates! The recent rise in yields is partly because investors are pricing in that policy rates will remain higher for longer, particularly after the Fed’s dot plot last week. But it’s also been driven by the growing realisation that supply is set to remain elevated given mounting budget deficits, along with a small uptick in longer-term inflation expectations. Indeed, although real rates led the moves in longer-dated yields (10yr +11.7bps to 2.17%), the 30yr inflation breakeven was still up +1.0bps yesterday to 2.39%, which is its highest level in over 6 months. My CoTDs over the last two days have shown that 10yr USTs are now at their 230 plus year average again and that c.86% of time over that period, 10yr rolling inflation has averaged below 4.5%. So after a decade plus of having little value in historical terms, it is finally a competitive asset class again against others such as equities, which raises the question about what return equity investors should demand going forward. See the two here and here.
For European sovereigns it was a similar yield rising story yesterday. Yields on 10yr bunds (+5.6bps) closed at their highest level since 2011, at 2.79%, and those on 10yr OATs (+5.7bps) closed at their highest since 2012, at 3.34%. That said, there was a modest rally at the front end, with 2yr bunds yields down -2.1bps. The moves came with the backdrop of comments by ECB President Lagarde, who said to the European Parliament that rates “will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary”. This reiterates the language from the ECB press conference back on September 14.
US equities showed resilience to the bond sell off, with the S&P 500 rebounding +0.40% from its 3-month low on Friday, and ending a run of four consecutive declines. Tech mega caps outperformed, with the Magnificent Seven index up +0.87%. Meanwhile, real estate, utilities and consumer staples were the underperformers in the S&P 500 with the higher rates story. As a reminder of the narrow nature of this year’s equity rally, the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 is up only +1.28% YTD (+0.25% yesterday) compared to +12.97% for the headline S&P 500. Over in Europe, the equity moves were more definitively negative, and the STOXX 600 (-0.62%) fell to a one-month low.
Another important development yesterday was a fresh rise in European natural gas prices, which hit their highest level since April, at €44.44/MWh. Now it’s worth noting that the situation is far better than this time a year ago, when prices were still above €150/MWh, and European gas storage is also more plentiful and secure relative to 12 months ago. But clearly, the latest increase in natural gas prices is an unhelpful development when there’s been other signs that the European economy is slowing. Speaking of which, the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany came in at 85.7 in September. That was better than the 85.2 reading expected, but still beneath the revised 85.8 reading from August, which means that the index has fallen for 5 consecutive months now.
Whilst there were growing signs of a slowdown in Europe, the US Dollar continued to strengthen yesterday, with the dollar index (+0.39%) reaching its highest level of 2023 so far, and overnight it’s inched up another +0.02%. Conversely, that pushed the euro beneath the $1.06 mark for the first time since March, whilst sterling also fell to a 6-month low of $1.2212 just as I visit the Apple Store in Manhattan this week. That comes as US real yields have hit their highest in years, and the 30yr real yield (+11.7bps) surpassed its recent peaks in 2010 and 2011 yesterday to close at its highest level since 2009, at 2.27% .
Overnight in Asia we’ve seen more negative sentiment in markets, including losses for all the major equity indices. That includes the KOSPI (-1.22%), the Nikkei (-0.98%), the Hang Seng (-0.84%), the CSI 300 (-0.45%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.33%). And as it stands, the Hang Seng is currently on track to close at its lowest level since November. We’ve also seen some headlines return about issues in the Chinese property sector, after Evergrande said yesterday that their mainland unit missed an onshore bond payment. Their shares fell by -21.82% yesterday, and overnight they’re down a further -6.98%. Looking ahead, US equity futures are pointing to renewed losses, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.32% this morning.
Looking at yesterday’s other data, the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to -18.1 in September (vs. -14.0 expected) even if the comments in the press conference were a little more upbeat.
To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the Conference Board’s consumer confidence for September, the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for September, new home sales for August, and the FHFA house price index for July. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bowman, and the ECB’s Lane, Simkus and Holzmann.
END
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities slip, though UK’s FTSE outperforms, DXY contained; Fed’s Bowman due – Newsquawk US Market Open
TUESDAY, SEP 26, 2023 – 06:32 AM
European bourses are on the backfoot but off the worst levels seen at the cash open despite a lack of fresh fundamental headlines, with the UK’s FTSE outperforming on a weaker GBP.
US futures are pressured amid a generally negative risk tone across the market and a lack of any fresh catalysts.
DXY has trimmed earlier upside after initially gaining more ground against the majority of its currency rivals amidst the ongoing rout in debt, and in the run-up to month end.
Bonds regained some composure with some aid from Germany’s Q4 issuance remit, which saw the expected reduction confirmed.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits & New Home Sales, NBH Policy Announcement & Fed’s Bowman, Supply from US.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are on the backfoot but off the worst levels seen at the cash open despite a lack of fresh fundamental headlines, with the UK’s FTSE outperforming on a weaker GBP.
Sectors in Europe are mostly lower with a slightly more defensive bias vs the cash open, with Healthcare and Utilities towards the top of the bunch while Tech remains the laggard.
US futures are pressured amid a generally negative risk tone across the market and a lack of any fresh catalysts.
DXY has trimmed earlier upside after initially gaining more ground against the majority of its currency rivals amidst the ongoing rout in debt, and in the run-up to month end in which Citi and Barclays models both point to Dollar buying.
USD/JPY temporarily rose above 149.00 to a 149.19 high before reversing lower in conjunction with jawboning from Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki.
GBP/USD is among the laggards under 1.2200 against its US peer against the backdrop of softer UK short-end rates and yields.
EUR/USD bounced from 1.0570 to test 1.0600 to the upside where EUR 1.7bln option expiries are due to roll off at the NY cut.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1727 vs exp. 7.3174 (prev. 7.1727).
Credit Agricole FX Month-End Rebalancing: month-end portfolio-rebalancing flows are likely to be mild USD buying across the board with the strongest buy signal in the case of the USD vs the CAD.
Bonds regained some composure with some aid from Germany’s Q4 issuance remit, which saw the expected reduction confirmed and was overall a positive development, but the bulk of the cut was at the short end.
Bunds are holding above 129.00 and BTPs defended 110.00 in wake of reasonable German and Italian auctions in relief more than positive response to the results.
Gilts plunged to 94.82 before rebounding to 95.64, while T-note fell to the edge of 108-00 at 108-05 before trimming losses to trade back towards 108-12+.
UK sold GBP 3bln 0.875% 2033 Green Gilt: b/c 2.56x (prev. 3.02x), average yield 4.315% (prev. 4.239%) and tail 1.3bps (prev. 0.2bps).
Germany sold EUR 3.25bln vs exp. EUR 4bln 2.40% 2028 Bobl: b/c 2.0x (prev. 2.1x), average yield 2.76% (prev. 2.56%) & retention 18.75% (prev. 15.15%)
Italy sold EUR 3bln vs exp. EUR 2.5-3.0bln 3.60% 2025 BTP & EUR 1.75bln vs. Exp. EUR 1.25-1.75bln 1.50% 2029, 2.55% 2041 BTPei.
Crude futures are softer intraday following the choppy price action seen yesterday, while the European morning has seen continued downside across the complex as a result of the risk aversion seen across the broader markets.
Dutch TTF prices are lower by some 7% at the time of writing following the recent surge, which desks believe is due to the upcoming heating seasons, whilst Norway’s Troll field reportedly saw a delayed startup.
Spot gold and silver are subdued as the Dollar surged in early European trade, while copper prices are off worst levels and iron ore futures saw another session of losses in the East.
Fed’s Kashkari (voter) said there is still more work to do on services inflation but added that they can definitely get back to 2% inflation, while he also stated that they may need higher rates for longer if the economy is too strong but added that they may need to cut rates if real rates are tightening. Furthermore, Kashkari said falling inflation next year could justify backing off the federal funds rate to stop it from getting tighter and noted he is one of the Fed policymakers who see one more rate hike this year.
US Senate Republican and Democrat negotiators are nearing a deal on a short-term spending measure intended to keep the government open after October 1st, according to Blomberg.
UAW union called Ford’s decision to pause the Michigan battery plant construction a shameful, barely-veiled threat by Ford to cut jobs.
Apple supplier Pegatron’s (4938 TT) India factory to remain shut for a third day on Wednesday following the weekend fire, according to Reuters sources.
European Commission VP Dombrovskis said Tesla (TSLA) and European carmakers that export from China to the EU will be part of the bloc’s probe into Chinese EV subsidies, via FT.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
ECB’s Simkus said policy is currently on track for 2% inflation in 2025. He would not rush with an answer when it comes to the timing of rate cuts, according to Bloomberg.
ECB’s Muller said he is not expecting additional rate hikes as things stand, according to Bloomberg.
UK will sign a trade pact with Washington state aimed at facilitating aerospace deals with the US, according to Bloomberg.
Germany cut its planned Q4 Federal debt issuance by EUR 31bln. The announced borrowing on the capital market will be reduced by EUR 8bln in Q4 and EUR 23bln less will be raised on the money market, according to the press release.
Chip-name ASM International (ASM NA) raised its 2025 revenue target and provided 2027 guidance at its Investor Day. Co. sees FY25 Revenue between EUR 3.0-3.6bln (prev. 2.8-3.4bln) while Q3 2023 was guidance reiterated, according to a press release.
GEOPOLITICS
South Korean President Yoon warned if North Korea uses nuclear weapons, the overwhelming response by South Korea and the US is to bring its regime to an end, while he added that only a strong military can ensure peace, according to Reuters.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang said China opposes ‘wanton’ expansion of military alliances and squeezing the security space of other countries, according to Reuters.
China MOFCOM said China firmly opposes the US inclusion of some Chinese companies and individuals in the Iran list, according to Reuters.
Philippines Coast Guard said four Chinese Coast Guard vessels were nearby prior to the Philippines cutting the barrier at the South China Sea shoal and China removed the remnants of the barrier, while China’s Coast Guard was not that aggressive and saw media on board the Philippines vessel, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin sees price action kept within a tight range above USD 26,000.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly lower with headwinds from the rising global yield environment.
ASX 200 was subdued by underperformance in real estate and tech as domestic yields climbed.
Nikkei 225 was pressured following the acceleration in Services PPI data and as recent currency moves keep participants on their toes regarding FX intervention.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with sentiment not helped by trade frictions after the US imposed restrictions on additional Chinese and Russian companies related to supplying Russia with components to make drones, although losses in the mainland were stemmed by another substantial liquidity operation and hope that the approaching Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day Golden Week holidays would provide a boost to consumption and economic activity.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s MOFCOM said China and the EU reached agreements on supply chain cooperation in which the agreements also include WTO reform and financial opening, while China urged the EU to exercise prudence in trade remedy.
Alibaba (BABA), on the proposed spin-off and listing of Cainiao, said HKEX has confirmed that the Co. may proceed with the spin-off, while details have not yet been finalised, and added there is no assurance that the proposed spin-off will take place or when, according to Reuters.
Some Evergrande (3333 HK) offshore creditors are planning to join the winding-up petition in the event that no new debt restructuring plan is submitted by October 30th, according to Reuters sources.
China’s Auto Industry body CAAM said it hopes the EU will use trade remedy measures prudently, cautiously, and launch countervailing investigation with regards to measures against China’s EV products, according to Reuters.
Japan maintains its overall view on the economy for September, and said “it is recovering moderately”; raises its view on corporate profits in September for the first time since March 2022, suggesting it is “improving as a whole”, according to Reuters.
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said they are closely watching FX moves with a great sense of urgency, according to Reuters.
Japan is reportedly mulling tapping budget reserves that were originally set aside for COVID inflation countermeasures for upcoming economic package and extra budget, according to Reuters.
Japanese Cabinet Official said BoJ Governor Ueda told a top economic council meeting that it was important to nurture positive signs of change in corporate behaviour, according to Reuters.
Ex-BoJ board member Sakurai said the BoJ may hold off on ending negative rates until April, according to Reuters.
Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) and Kia (000270 KS) are to cut EV prices in South Korea until the end of the year. The Cos plan discounts as government expands subsidies for EV purchases. Cos sees EV sales remaining sluggish in South Korea, according to Bloomberg.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Services PPI (Aug) 2.10% vs. Exp. 1.80% (Prev. 1.70%)
Source: Newsquawk
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.33 PTS OR 0.53% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 262.39 PTS OR 1.48%/ /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 363.57 PTS OR 01.11% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.55 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.3095 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN DOWN TO 7.3104 /Oil DOWN TO 88.86 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 92.32 / Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
//NORTH KOREA/CHINA/RUSSIA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
end
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
Evergrande former CEO and the CFO arrested. The Insolvent property giant misses payment on 550 million dollars on a onshore bond
(zerohedge)
Evergrande Former CEO And CFO Arrested As Insolvent Property Giant Misses Payment On $550MM Onshore Bond
MONDAY, SEP 25, 2023 – 11:08 AM
It has been another stormy day for China’s property sector which plunged 7%, erasing all gains since the Nov 2022 lows…
… plunged as much as 24% in Hong Kong after the distressed developer canceled key creditor meetings that had been set for this week and said it must reassess its proposed restructuring.
The real estate giant said late Sunday it couldn’t satisfy requirements of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the National Development and Reform Commission to issue new notes. It cited an investigation of subsidiary Hengda Real Estate Group without elaborating. The unit said in August that CSRC had built a case against it relating to suspected information disclosure violations.
Commenting on the slide, Bloomberg said that Evergrande “is running out of time to get what would be one of the nation’s biggest-ever restructurings back on track, after setbacks in recent days that raise the risk of liquidation.”
The string of surprise developments include scrapping key creditor meetings at the last minute, saying it must revisit its restructuring plan, detention of money management unit staff and an inability to meet regulator qualifications to issue new bonds.
That last item is a major setback to its planned restructuring of at least $30 billion of offshore debt that would have creditors swap defaulted notes for new securities. Evergrande’s shares plunged as much as 25% Monday.
The latest sign of trouble (in what has been an endless barrage for the past two years) at Evergrande caused simmering worries about China’s deepening property crisis to flare. As noted above, a Bloomberg index of Chinese property stocks tumbled the most in nine months on Monday, taking its loss in valuation this year to $55 billion. China Aoyuan Group Ltd. slumped by a record after its shares resumed trading, and property investing firm China Oceanwide Holdings Ltd. faced court-ordered liquidation after a Bermuda court issued a winding-up order.
Things went from bad to worse, this morning when Evergrande’s onshore unit effectively redefaulted when it said it missed principal and interest payments of a 4b yuan ($550 million) onshore bond with a put option issued in 2020, according to a Shenzhen stock exchange filing. And while the company assured investors that it will “actively” negotiate with bond holders to reach solutions as soon as possible, it will hardly come as a comfort to the company’s other creditors or the property sector in general, which now has nothing but more pain to look forward to.
Two people who certainly have nothing to look forward to any more, are former Evergrande CEO, Xia Haijun, and Pan Darong, a former chief financial officer, both of whom were arrested by Chinese authorities, Caixin reported, without identifying sources.
Both were in charge of Evergrande’s financial operations and resigned in July last year for their alleged involvement in a bank deposit scandal, according to the report. Some more details from the report, which notes that as Evergrande’s financial trouble intensifies, pressure has been building for the developer to repay wealth management products sold by the subsidiary to retail investors while trying to complete housing projects across the country. The subsidiary said in an August statement that it had failed to make payments for the month, fueling public outcry.
While the reason for the investigation into Pan is unknown, some sources said it could be linked to his past work on overseeing repayments of the wealth management products.
More than 10 people working for the subsidiary, mainly managerial personnel, including General Manager Du Liang and Deputy General Manager Yao Bencai, have been arrested or detained by police for alleged illegal fundraising by the company.
The funds raised from selling wealth management products had likely been used by Evergrande for property development, the people said.
Xu Tenghe, Evergrande Chairman Xu Jiayin’s second son who also goes by Peter Xu, was the group executive in charge of overseeing the wealth management subsidiary in 2021, when its failure to repay investors led to protests, a person close to the company told Caixin.
In addition, Zhu Jialin, a former chairman of Evergrande Life Assurance Co. Ltd. who now works for Zhongrong Life Insurance Co. Ltd., was detained by authorities on Sept. 17, sources familiar with the issue said. There’s speculation among industry insiders that the probe is connected with Zhu’s Evergrande stint.
As a reminder, in July Evergrande reported a staggering loss of 105.9 billion yuan ($15.7 billion) for 2022, following a loss of 476 billion yuan the previous year. Its total liabilities reached nearly 2.6 trillion yuan at the end of 2021, before falling slightly to around 2.4 trillion yuan a year later.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
POLAND/USA
Why is the USA loaning Poland and not spending it at home?
(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)
US Announces $2 Billion Loan For Poland To Spend On Military
The Biden administration on Monday announced a $2 billion loan for Poland that will go toward modernizing Warsaw’s military.
“Today, the United States is proud to announce the signing of a milestone $2 billion Foreign Military Financing (FMF) direct loan agreement to support Poland’s defense modernization,” the State Department said in a press release.
The State Department said the US would also provide $60 million in FMF funds to cover the cost of the loan. The press release described Warsaw as a “stalwart US ally” as Poland has become a major hub for arms shipments to Ukraine and spends more on its military than most European NATO members.
“In addition to its central support role in facilitating international assistance to neighboring Ukraine, Poland has demonstrated its ironclad commitment to strengthening regional security through its robust investments in defense spending,” the State Department said.
Poland has been unloading its old Soviet-made equipment into Ukraine and is purchasing lots of US and other NATO military equipment, a policy that’s been a boon for Western arms makers.
The US has also significantly expanded its military presence in Poland since Russia invaded Ukraine, with about 10,000 US troopsnow stationed there.
The loan announcement comes after Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Poland would no longer provide arms to Ukraine amid a public spat between Warsaw and Kyiv over Ukrainian grain. The comments mark a significant shift as Poland has been a staunch backer of the proxy war against Russia.Source: Jane’s
US officials and Western media outlets have attempted to downplay the spat, insisting it’s part of Polish election rhetoric and won’t impact NATO support for Ukraine. Poland’s parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 15, and the ruling Law and Justice party has come under domestic criticism for being subservient to Ukraine.
END
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA
Seymour Hersh states quite clearly that the war is over and Russia has won
(Gateway Pundit/and zerohedge/2 commentaries)
Seymour Hersh: “It’s All Lies. The War is Over. Russia has Won.” | The Gateway Pundit | by Richard Abelson
Seymour Hersh: “Ukraine virtually canceled the offensive after weeks of high casualties.”
As the anniversary of the purported Biden Regime sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline approaches Sept. 26, veteran investigative reporter Seymour Hersh blamed a ”secret disinformation operation“ by CIA and MI-6 for misleading the public about the disastrous state of the US-led war effort.
“The war is over. Russia has won. There is no Ukrainian offensive anymore, but the White House and the American media have to keep the lie going,“ a senior US intel official told Hersh. “The truth is if the Ukrainian army is ordered to continue the offensive, the army would mutiny. The soldiers aren’t willing to die any more, but this doesn’t fit the B.S. that is being authored by the Biden White House.”
As the first anniversary of the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline approaches next Tuesday, Hersh promised more revelations after his Feb. 8 scathing exposé of the Biden Regime’s purported plot to commit the greatest act of industrial sabotage since WW II – against an ally, Germany.
As Volodymyr Zelensky made the rounds at the UN and in Washington, Hersh wrote that his intel source told him “the war continues … because Zelensky insists that it must.”
“There is no discussion in his headquarters or in the Biden White House of a ceasefire and no interest in talks that could lead to an end to the slaughter,” Hersh said.
Speaking of the Ukrainian claims of slow progress in an offensive that has lost an estimated 75,000 casualties, the official told Hersh: “It’s all lies.”
There has been a ”secret disinformation operation“ by the CIA and British intelligence aimed at discrediting Putin, Hersh wrote, which led “major media outlets here and in London to report that the Russian president was suffering from varied illnesses that included blood disorders and a serious cancer.“
During the much-anticipated Ukrainian spring offensive, “there were some early penetrations“ of the Russians‘ heavily fortified ‘Maginot Line’, the source told Hersh, “and the Russians retreated to sucker them in. And they all got killed.”
“After weeks of high casualties and little progress, along with horrific losses to tanks and armored vehicles,” the source said, “major elements of the Ukrainian army, without declaring so, virtually canceled the offensive,” Hersh reports. “The two villages that the Ukrainian army recently claimed as captured “are so tiny that they could fit between two Burma-Shave signs,” the source said.
The Biden-Obama Regime’s “neocon hostility to Russia” had caused “a significant split in the intelligence community,” Hersh writes, citing a “longstanding disagreement between the CIA and other elements of the intelligence community on the prognosis of the current war in the Ukraine.“
The CIA has been “far more skeptical than their counterparts at the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) on the prospect for a Ukraine success,“ Hersh notes, which he says the American media has ignored.
Speaking at the UN this week, President Biden had ignored the disastrous failure of the billion-dollar Ukrainian offensive, while Zelensky refused to consider peace negotiations and continued to tubthump for more money and arms.
In an interview with The Economist, Zelensky issued a veiled threat to European countries which had taken in millions of Ukrainian refugees, according to Hersh, saying the refugees had “behaved well . . . and are grateful” but there is “no way of predicting how they would react to their country being abandoned.”
“It was nothing less than a threat of internal insurrection,“ Hersh wrote.
END
Seymour Hersh On The Mainstream’s Ukraine Narrative Shift
SUNDAY, SEP 24, 2023 – 08:45 AM
The clandestine bombings of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea happened on September 26, 2022. This coming Tuesday will mark the one-year anniversary. The prospect of a direct NATO-Russia war has only continued to grow since as a possible nuclear WW3-level disastrous catastrophe, still looming darkly on the horizon.
Legendary American investigative journalist Seymour Hersh in his latest article has bluntly stated, “The reality is that Volodymyr Zelensky’s battered army no longer has any chance of a victory.” Whereas previously there was a vast chasm between Hersh’s conclusions and those of mainstream Western press reports, this is no longer the case… just see The Economist this week:
The narrative dissonance must be particularly jolting for average Americans who up till this point have been treated to constant rosy pictures and overly optimist reports of Ukraine “winning” or at least “pushing back” the Russians. This was certainly the mainstream’s driving theme at least throughout the first year of war, and even into the summer.
Hersh in his Thursday Substack report cited an unnamed intelligence source who “spent the early years of his career working against Soviet aggression and spying.” That source said that despite some continued and recent attempts to paint the Ukraine counteroffensive as making slow but steady progress, the truth is the opposite.
“It’s all lies,” the source told Hersh. “The war is over. Russia has won. There is no Ukrainian offensive anymore, but the White House and the American media have to keep the lie going.”
“The truth is if the Ukrainian army is ordered to continue the offensive, the army would mutiny. The soldiers aren’t willing to die any more, but this doesn’t fit the B.S. that is being authored by the Biden White House,” the intelligence source explained.
This conclusion was perhaps given some degree of confirmation when Zelensky met with Biden on Thursday. Lackluster is how we previously generally characterized the mood. Nothing new of importance was announced by Biden, other than a measly $325 million military aid package from already approved funds. There was also the mention of “limited” or “a little” US long-range missiles approved for Kiev.
Also, Congress is still fiercely divided over the question of approving $24 billion in Ukraine aid for the next fiscal year. All of this strongly suggests even hawkish Ukraine supporters are increasingly wary of pouring more billions into the losing side, which could only ensure a further spiral between Moscow and NATO, and more endless death and destruction.
Here’s more from Hersh’s intelligence source, as summarized in the journal Modern Diplomacy:
“There were some early Ukrainian penetrations in the opening days of the June offensive,” the official said, “at or near” the heavily trapped first of Russia’s three formidable concrete barriers of defense, “and the Russians retreated to sucker them in. And they all got killed.”
After weeks of high casualties and little progress, along with horrific losses to tanks and armored vehicles, he said, major elements of the Ukrainian army, without declaring so, virtually canceled the offensive. The two villages that the Ukrainian army recently claimed as captured “are so tiny that they couldn’t fit between two Burma-Shave signs” — referring to billboards that seemed to be on every American highway after World War II.
Thus the situation for Ukraine forces couldn’t be more dire at this moment, yet there still doesn’t appear any willingness on the part of Kiev’s backers to push both sides to the negotiating table. However, there have been scattered reports of ‘secret’ dialogue behind the scenes.
Meanwhile, Ukraine – it appears with direct targeting and intelligence help from Washington – continues to mount riskier and riskier attacks on targets inside Russia and Crimea. Friday’s Storm Shadow missile attack on Sevastopol’s Black Sea Fleet naval headquarters is a case in point. It may have taken out top Russian naval commanders (as Ukraine is currently claiming) and marks one of the biggest escalations of the war so far.
end
UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA
The upcoming collapse of Ukraine’s economy
(Smith/NakedCapitalism)
‘
The Coming Ukraine Collapse & The “Rebuilding” Headfake
Marguerite Yourcenar salvaged one of the finest lines in all literature from the first version of her masterpiece Memoirs of Hadrian: “I begin to discern the profile of my death.” We are approaching that point with Ukraine, not just its military campaign, but also its economy. That baked-in collapse has been camouflaged by the bizarre pretense that there will be a huge reconstruction push, even more absurdly, funded by private sector interests. One has to think that the “rebuilding” patter is part of the cover for the fact that Project Ukraine is a lost cause.
At the end of this post, we are embedding a chapter on the devastation in Russia in the 1990s to give an idea of what the downside in Ukraine might look like. Recall that even though the USSR had suffered from underinvestment in many sectors, it still had ample resources and considerable manufacturing capacity. It did not, as Ukraine has, suffer from considerable infrastructure destruction, a fall in its population to half its former level, through flight, annexation, and death in the war, and the loss of some of its most economically developed areas.
The war is now entering a critical phase, with experts now warning of a breakdown of the Ukraine military in the not-terribly-distant future or using formulations that amount to the same thing. Scott Ritter had predicted that outcome for late summer-fall based on Ukraine’s dwindling missiles supplies, but that horizon has been extended by the US supply of cluster munitions, whose use is considered a war crime by many countries.
Seymour Hersh’s latest newsletter depicted both Biden and Zelensky as dug in on continuing the war without mentioning that Banderite guns at the back of Zelensky’s head mean he cannot act otherwise even if he wanted to. But as the saying goes, if wishes were horses, beggars would ride. And there is a noteworthy failure of wishes to translate into improved capabilities. From Hersh:
There are significant elements in the American intelligence community, relying on field reports and technical intelligence, who believe that the demoralized Ukraine army has given up on the possibility of overcoming the heavily mined three-tier Russian defense lines and taking the war to Crimea and the four oblasts seized and annexed by Russia. The reality is that Volodymyr Zelensky’s battered army no longer has any chance of a victory….
“There were some early Ukrainian penetrations in the opening days of the June offensive,” the official [ with access to current intelligence] said, “at or near” the heavily trapped first of Russia’s three formidable concrete barriers of defense, “and the Russians retreated to sucker them in. And they all got killed.” After weeks of high casualties and little progress, along with horrific losses to tanks and armored vehicles, he said, major elements of the Ukrainian army, without declaring so, virtually canceled the offensive. The two villages that the Ukrainian army recently claimed as captured “are so tiny that they couldn’t fit between two Burma-Shave signs”—referring to billboards that seemed to be on every American highway after World War II….
“The truth is if the Ukrainian army is ordered to continue the offensive, the army would mutiny. The soldiers aren’t willing to die any more, but this doesn’t fit the B.S. that is being authored by the Biden White House.”
This outcome is not a surprise to anyone who has ventured outside mainstream reporting to find sources that have been paying attention to what is happening on the battlefield and with weapons supplies. Russia was outproducing the entire Collective West in artillery when the war began, and if anything, that gap has widened. Russia also has the advantage in missile production, has substantially increased drone output, and already had the most advanced air defense systems. The West despite handwaves has done little to increase capacity.
Worse, Russia burning the hodge-podge of supposedly game-changing Western tanks and armored vehicles had been both so embarrassing and effective that Ukraine has been reduced to moving men on foot to assault Russia positions, resulting in predictably horrific loss rates. Alexander Mercouris has correctly called the results a killing field.
As the offensive has quietly slowed down, Ukraine’s support is also breaking down. Even if resolve had held, there was the unanswered question of where adequate weapons supplies would come from and how Ukraine would build yet another army, since by my count, its third is in the process of being destroyed. The idea of forced repatriation of military-aged men from the rest of Europe was a joke, another demonstration of Ukraine’s sense of entitlement.
Zelensky’s visit revealed how the cost of Project Ukraine has become far too high as recognition rises that what would be required just to keep things going is an open checkbook…even before getting to the looming manpower problem. In an attempt to keep the optics up as Team Biden and other over-invested in Ukraine try to regroup, more and more spokescritters are shifting their patter from “Great Ukraine victory when it restarts the offensive” to the new sick fantasy of a multi-year war.
And even worse, European support is also buckling. As we discussed yesterday via Andrew Korybko’s post, Poland & Ukraine Have Plunged Into A Full-Blown Political Crisis With No End In Sight, both Slovakia and Poland have elections soon. Parties opposed to continuing high levels of support for Ukraine have good potential to win. If they were to prevail, it would knock the wind out of the pretense of NATO support for Ukraine.3
Poland in particular has been one of the most rabid supporters for Ukraine, and by virtue of location and inclination, has been imagined to be a source of troops if the US and NATO were to be so foolish as to put their own boots on the ground. Polish president Duda may be pandering to save his electoral hide by standing up to what he depicts as Ukraine’s abuse of the grain deal and describing Ukraine a drowning man that he will not allow to pull Poland down into the drink, even as Prime Minister Morawiecki says no new weapons will be sent to to Ukraine. But some things cannot be unsaid.
Now after that introduction, to the main event of the exceedingly poor economic prospects for what will be left of Ukraine… which is not even known. It’s pretty remarkable to see chipper talk in the West of rebuilding Ukraine, since it presupposes there will be a meaningful Ukraine left. It’s reminiscent of children discussing how much of an ailing parent’s wealth they expect to carve up when the process of dying could well wipe out the remaining assets.
The quality of data about Ukraine is terrible. Western reporters appear to have mainly visited Kiev, which so far has been spared most of the destruction, and only a few hardy souls have gone to the front lines. As far as I can tell, we don’t have sightings of conditions in much of Western Ukraine, save also for the shellings of Odessa. Note that Russia has increased its strikes on Lviv in the past month. So we don’t have much of an idea of how much physical damage has been done.
We have discussed Russia’s selective destruction of the electrical grid. Even though enough was patched up to keep it running, some have claimed that the repairs are glue-and-bandaid enough that parts will probably fall over on their own with increased winter load.
Russia has also been using drones a lot of late and holding back on missiles, which means it could easily rinse and repeat its grid attacks. Since only Russia makes the major components of the Ukraine electrical system, and Ukraine had been some of its replacements from former Warsaw Pact members, more Russian attacks would eventually put large parts of the electrical system beyond anyone’s ability to fix save Russia’s (the West is simply not going to build special purpose factories for the a big blip of Ukraine refitting).
So Russia if it wants to controls Western Ukraine’s future if it sufficiently takes out its power network.
Let’s consider other complicating factors. One is the loss of population, particularly of the working age. As Michael Vlahos pointed out:
However, Luttwak bases his prediction on Ukraine having a population of 30 million. That number comes from January 2022. In an analysis by the think tank Jamestown Foundation, which is connected to the American intelligence community, it is said that the Ukrainian population has today shrunk to just 20 million, slightly more than the Netherlands, but fewer than Taiwan. And of the 20 million, according to the Jamestown Foundation, retirees make up over half: 10.7 million.
And even if spending falls from war-level peaks, Ukraine’s fall in GDP (estimated at 25%, which seems low) in combination with not just an aged population, but now a large number of war disabled, including many amputees, means an increased social burden with greatly diminished productive capacity.
And we have not even factored in what happens if Russia eventually marches up to the Dnieper, getting even more of Ukraine’s most productive farm land, and/or takes the Black Sea coast, turning Ukraine into an even poorer landlocked rump state. The fact that the US is unwilling to make any concession to the key Russian demand of no Ukraine ever in NATO means Russia will prosecute the war until it has subjugated Ukraine, by whatever combination of conquest, installation of a captive government, and economic destruction needs to happen.
Consider what has happened to the hryvnia under the tender ministrations of the US:
What happens when the Western budget support to Ukraine dries up?
Huge deficit spending.
And what do big deficits in combination with a big loss of economic productive capacity produce? Hyperinflation.
Now with these sorry prospects, we nevertheless have the touting of the reconstruction plans, because big private sector names like BlackRock are attached to them.
People like Greenwald are concerned, but not to worry. This rebuilding program is a hollow mandate. The fact that various players might skim some fees while spinning their wheels does not meant there is a prospect of anything meaningful happening. I could go on at great length and may do a fuller kneecapping later. But this will hopefully do for now.
First, those who remember the 2015 Greek bailout crisis may recall that the Troika tried hawking Greek assets, hired agents, and had planned to reap €50 billion. As we wrote in Look What You Can Buy in the Greek Liquidation Sale!, that figure was wildly exaggerated. As far as I could tell, aside from the sale of the port of Pireaus, the effort was a huge flop. And remember, Greece was suffering merely from a very depressed economy and the related loss of workers with employment prospects in the rest of Europe, as it was nothing even remotely as bad a basket case as Ukraine will be.
Second, by making reconstruction a private sector initiative, governments are effectively washing their hands of Ukraine.4 The most critical parts of Ukraine to rebuild will be the foundations of functioning communities: roads, water systems, bridges. Those are built by governments because they are shared goods. Pray tell, what kind of society would Ukraine have if it ran on the infrastructure fund basis of having only/mainly toll roads and bridges?
Even if Zelensky were miraculously to get the funding, where would the know-how and skilled laborers come from? Very few Western countries (France and Australia high on the list) are good at large scale infrastructure. But all of the members of the Project Ukraine would want their piece of the reconstruction pie. Imagine the squabbling and the low odds that the best qualified players would get the green light.
The meeting discussed the creation of a platform for attracting private capital to rebuild Ukraine. Zelensky also focused on directions of large investment projects in Ukraine specifically in green energy, IT, and agricultural technologies.
All those initiatives presuppose a functioning economy, such as a decent number of high-end professionals and well-functioning logistics. Those are conditions not likely to be much in evidence.
Finally, for an initiative this large to have any chance of success, you’d need to divvy the work among top infrastructure players around the world. Instead, Team Biden threw a US party. Note how far down on the Infrastructure Investor list below BlackRock is. Ukraine’s lead adviser JP Morgan is #78. KKR, which is #4, has strong Republican ties, which is the presumed reason for them not being much in evidence in this effort despite being the best qualified US player:
In other words, the Ukraine tragedy will not be over if and when the war ends. Americans should be embarrassed that we plan to add investor looting to the damage, even though as indicated that is actually unlikely to get much of anywhere.
END
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Even though the USA may stop paying salaries for Americans, they are to keep paying salaries for tens of thousands of Ukrainians during the government shutdown
(zerohedge)
US To Keep Paying Salaries For Tens Of Thousands Of Ukrainians During Government Shutdown
MONDAY, SEP 25, 2023 – 06:40 PM
A newly aired “60 Minutes” segment entitled The unexpected way American tax dollars are being used in Ukraine has uncovered that the US government is paying the salaries of some 57,000 Ukrainian civic services personnel.
The report details the various ways non-military aid is being spent at a moment GOP Congressional leaders are intensely debating whether to move forward with a proposed defense budget that includes Biden’s push for $24 billion more in military assistance for Kiev. Watch:
“The U.S. has spent just over $43 billion on military aid to Ukraine since Russia invaded. That’s equivalent to about 5% of the American defense budget. European countries combined have contributed around $30 billion,” the 60 Minutes report narrates.
American taxpayers are financing more than just weapons. We discovered the U.S. government’s buying seeds and fertilizer for Ukrainian farmers… and covering the salaries of Ukraine’s first responders – all 57,000 of them.
That includes the team that trains this rescue dog – named Joy – to comb through the wreckage of Russian strikes looking for survivors.
Political commentator Collin Rugg has noted in relation to the potential government shutdown looming for Oct. 1st: “Yes, your tax dollars will be used to fund Ukrainian salaries while American citizens are forced to wait for their pay while the government remains closed,” he said on X.
Rugg is referencing the fact that the Biden administration and Pentagon have declared that Ukraine aid will remain exempt from any potential government shutdown. This means Ukrainian salaries will still be paid, even while federal employees aren’t, in the event of a shutdown.
Here’s more from the 60 Minutes video, featuring a Ukrainian woman “thanking” US taxpayers for footing the bill for Ukrainian employees, thanks to USAID funding:
Tatiana Abramova: Especially in the condition of war, we have to work. We have to pay taxes, we have to pay wage– salary to our employees. We have to work, don’t stop.
Holly Williams: Why does that help Ukraine win the war?
Tatiana Abramova: Because economy is the foundation of everything.
American officials from USAID – the agency in charge of international development – helped Abramova find new customers overseas. In the midst of war, her company is supporting over 70 families.
Meanwhile, a fresh Newsweek headline: US Will Pay Salaries to Thousands of Ukrainians During Government Shutdown…
“US taxpayers will pay the salaries of thousands of Ukrainians, even as the country faces a government shutdown at the end of September.”
But as noted above, this is more like tens of thousands of Ukrainian salaries.
“A federal government shut down will effectively begin on October 1 if Congress isn’t able to pass a funding plan that Biden signs into law,” Newsweek underscores. “If that happens, federal agencies have to stop all nonessential work and will not send paychecks for as long as the shutdown lasts.”
Appropriately, the 60 Minutes episode invoked memory of the late John McCain…
In total, America’s pumped nearly $25 billion of non-military aid into Ukraine’s economy since the invasion began – and you can see it working at the bustling farmers market on John McCain Street in central Kyiv.
The late senator is revered in Ukraine because he pushed the U.S. government to start sending arms to the country… back in 2014.
Here’s how 60 Minutes presents bipartisan support for Biden’s blank check for Ukraine:
While in Kyiv, we learned that three of McCain’s former colleagues were also in town: Democratic Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Richard Blumenthal and Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. They don’t normally agree on much – together, though, they’re some of the staunchest supporters of U.S. funding for Ukraine’s resistance.
Sen. Lindsey Graham: They’re on track to break the Russian army, and the only way they could possibly lose is if we pull the plug on them.
Indeed Zelensky himself while meeting with US Senators in Washington last week said something similar – that without continuing American funds, the war effort is doomed. He urged Congress to keep the billions in aid flowing, and sought to present that Moscow will one day expand aggression beyond just Ukraine.
* * *
Meanwhile, the “aid from the heart of every ordinary American person” will continue (whether those ordinary Americans like or not)…
end\
Robert H on the above story:
The sad state of affairs in America in full display. The irony of this is that this would normally be called treason and a civil uproar would topple any sitting government out of disgust and anger. Ancient Rome would have inspired Caesar.
The fact that this goes on with a consenting public speaks volumes about how far America has fallen not just for Americans as citizens but also as a world leading nation. A leadership of a nation that conducts such practices at the expense of its citizens loses all statute to hold any moral high ground. It has to resort to intimidation and bribery and theft to exist almost like a drunk in a China Shop in a stupor until it falls.
The Western world has lost the beacon America once was to the world. Whether the country can reach within to find its’ soul remains to be seen. And this is unlikely without some internal force as all political efforts will fail as partisan politics plays out in all facets of every day for Americans. Whether other Western countries remain vassals or find their cultural roots to restore historical standing remains a question. Whatever happens we should be prepared for the chaos that will ensue now throughout the Western world. Because survival of nations and businesses will be depend on charting a course into a fiery future unlike anything seen in our lifetimes.
This pathway forward will take much courage and strength because our desires to succeed will be tested in uncharted waters coming forth. This is already seen in social tension as society itself that we have known is under attack by the stench of a rotting corpse of yesterday tossed away by current leadership. And in keeping with this it is why we such deplorable leadership on display because competent people would not act this way. This is seen from a senile President incapable of reading a teleprompter to a dumb stumbling Prime Minster who does not even understand that he is an ant compared to India who is an elephant. Nor capable of understanding that giving a standing ovation to a Nazi is an insult to everyone who fought and died in WWII or those people who suffered at the hands of NAZI’s and the Waffen SS.
One can assume that Capital does not pass judgment but reacts and why today capital seeks alternatives to Western investment. And likely why certain nations see this as a once in a life time opportunity for growth while others face long term demise.
END
6.GLOBAL ISSUES AND VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
Cancers Appearing In Ways Never Before Seen After COVID Vaccinations: Dr. Harvey Risch
Dr. Risch is professor emeritus of epidemiology in the Department of Epidemiology and Public Health at the Yale School of Public Health and Yale School of Medicine. His research has focused extensively on the causes of cancer as well as prevention and early diagnosis.
In an interview for EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders,” Dr. Risch said patients must now wait months, not weeks, to get an appointment at an oncology clinic in New York.
There is difficulty in observing whether a vaccine can cause cancer, because cancer usually takes time to develop, Dr. Risch said. It can take anywhere from two years to 30 years, depending on the different types of cancer, from leukemia to colon cancer.
“What clinicians have been seeing,” said Dr. Risch, “is very strange things: For example, 25-year-olds with colon cancer, who don’t have family histories of the disease—that’s basically impossible along the known paradigm for how colon cancer works—and other long-latency cancers that they’re seeing in very young people.”
He said this is not how cancer normally develops.
“There has to be some initiating stimulus to why this happens,” he said.
Fighting Cancer
Dr. Risch said that in his opinion, cancer is something a healthy human body can fight and disable, as the non-normal cancerous cells are gobbled up when detected in a body with a functional immune system. If the immune system is compromised, however, it cannot cope with the task of neutralizing cancerous cells, and cancerous cells are left to multiply and grow, leading to symptoms of cancer.
“That’s the mechanism I think is most likely here,” Dr. Risch said. “We know that the COVID vaccines have done various degrees of damage to the immune system in a fraction of people who have taken them.”
That damage could translate to getting COVID more often, getting other infectious diseases, or getting cancer.
Another example Dr. Risch gave was breast cancer, which normally, if there is a remanifestation after surgical removal, the remanifestation occurs after two decades. However, vaccinated women are now seen to remanifest breast cancers in much shorter periods of time.
“Those are the initial signals that we’ve been seeing, and because these cancers have been occurring to people who were too young to get them, basically, compared to the normal way it works, they’ve been designated as turbo cancers,” Dr. Risch said.
“Some of these cancers are so aggressive that between the time that they’re first seen and when they come back for treatment after a few weeks, they’ve grown dramatically compared to what oncologists would have expected for the way cancer normally progresses,” he added.
“Be attuned to your body,” Dr. Risch recommended, for noticing any new signals the body might give.
Adverse Events After Vaccination
Dr. Risch also talked about the aspect of official medical agencies not recognizing someone as being vaccinated inside the first two weeks of vaccination. This happens, he said, because the medical agencies say that the effects of the vaccine need two weeks to start manifesting. Adverse effects occurring a few days after vaccinations were officially counted as health conditions manifesting in unvaccinated people, he said.
However, serious adverse events after receiving the vaccine have occurred within the first four days, Dr. Risch said. He said three-quarters of adverse effects are being recorded as happening to unvaccinated people.
The decision makers who were in charge during the pandemic “threw out the principles of public health six days into the pandemic and did the opposite of everything that we knew should be done for respiratory viruses,” he said.
One example was the denial of effective early treatment and unnecessary vaccinations, which show a “colossal failure of public health through this period,” he said.
Dr. Risch said that a lot of people are now less likely to be “propagandized” regarding COVID, and that news reports about a new variant that is going to take over the world in the next month are “propaganda to sell the next batch of vaccines coming out in a few weeks.”
“People are fed up with this and it’s going to be a lot more pushback,” he said.
Risks to Society
Dr. Risch said that while the individual risk of an adverse reaction to the vaccine is relatively low, once that risk manifests itself at a greater scale, when millions of people have received the vaccine, the result is that hundreds of thousands of people are left with injuries and serious adverse events that are often worse than the virus itself.
Dr. Risch’s opinion is that nobody should get vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine, as the new variants are mild and not life threatening. He has heard of a few hospitalizations that lasted for some days, but as most people had COVID in the past, they have some immunity to these new variants as well.
“There is no reason for people to be vaccinated now, to any degree,” he said.
He said COVID has become an illness similar to the flu in its degree of severity, and that propaganda to scare people is being pushed by the government on behalf of pharmaceutical companies to sell more vaccines.
“We live in social contact with each other and therefore spread low-level infections. This is part of human life that we take for granted and we try to treat it the best we can,” he said. “That’s how we should be managing this.”
END
GLOBAL ISSUES//
Insufficient demand killing container shipping
(zerohedge)
Trouble Ahead: Container Shipping Rates Sinking Further Into The Red
It’s not looking good for container shipping lines. Peak season is running out of whatever limited steam it previously had. Spot rates are sliding into loss-making territory.
Rates “continue to lose ground, bending under the pressure of insufficient demand and growing overcapacity,” said Alphaliner this week. According to Linerlytica, “Container market sentiment continues to deteriorate, with freight rates still slipping and little prospect for a rate rebound in October despite carriers’ efforts to contain capacity availability through blanked [canceled] sailings.”
The Freightos Baltic Daily Index (FBX) spot assessment for the Asia-North America West Coast lane has fallen 16% over the past month, to $1,712 per forty-foot equivalent unit as of Thursday. The FBX Asia-North America East Coast assessment is down 13% over the past month, to $2,662 per FEU.
Asia-Europe lanes are seeing double-digit pullbacks as well.
“For North Europe, we have not seen the spot rate this low since early 2018, when the level was lower for a brief two weeks,” Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, said in an online post on Thursday. “To see a more sustained period of spot rates this low or lower, we have to go back to the depths of the price war in late 2015 and early 2016.”
The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) shows that European trades are faring even worse than the U.S. trades. WCI spot indexes hit a recent peak on Aug. 17. Since then, the WCI assessment for Shanghai to Rotterdam, Netherlands, has plunged 34%. Spot prices from Shanghai to Genoa, Italy, have dropped 27%.
The WCI’s Shanghai-Los Angeles assessments have declined 11% since Aug. 17, to $2,104 per FEU for the week ending Thursday. The WCI Shanghai-New York index dropped 18% over the same period, to $2,900 per FEU.
Spot levels fall back toward contract levels
Ocean carriers saw some green shoots in July and August as trans-Pacific spot levels rebounded to above annual contract rates. Carrier executives said they did not lock in loss-making rates in their annual contract negotiations, implying that if spot rates exceeded contract rates, the spot business was back in the black.
But the premium of spot rates to contract rates in the Asia-East Coast trade has collapsed over the past month, according to data from Xeneta.
Xeneta data shows that average short-term (spot) rates in the Asia-East Coast trade were an impressive $580 per FEU higher than average long-term (contract) rates on Aug. 15.
No longer. Short-term rates were just $77 per FEU higher than long-term rates as of Thursday. (The spot-to-contract premium is still material in the Asia-West Coast lane, at $283 per FEU.)
Fallout for Zim
The deteriorating spot market in the Asia-East Coast trade via the Panama Canal is particularly worrisome for ocean carrier Zim, because that’s the trans-Pacific trade it’s focused on.
Zim ceased the last of its services to the U.S. West Coast in the first quarter and has deployed its newbuildings on the East Coast route. The Asia-East Coast market is Zim’s most important global trade by far, accounting for 34% of total volume in Q2 2023.
Zim has an unusually high 70% of its trans-Pacific business on spot this year because it could not find enough customers to meet the minimum price threshold it had set for annual contracts (which run from May 1, 2023, to April 30, 2024).
At the time of its latest quarterly call, on Aug. 16, spot rates exceeded contract rates, so Zim was temporarily benefiting from its decision on the spot-contract mix. However, Zim CFO Xavier Destriau openly acknowledged that this could change.
“We remain extremely cautious. How long the recent improvement in the trans-Pacific trade lane will stick is unknown. Whether it’s going to go beyond October or not is unknown,” he said on the call.
The latest index data implies that Zim’s caution was justified and its bet on the spot trade could indeed turn negative, if it hasn’t already.
end
A must view:!!!White House knew about myocarditis as early as May 2021 and hid it
Dr. Naomi Wolf goes on Steve Bannon & again and again delivers BOMBS, MOABS, haymakers that stun me for the preparation and coverage is brilliant; Wolf emerged as an oracle with 2nd, Yeadon, Fox etc.
The “Biden” administration is nothing more than a continuation of past illegitimate administrations that were all controlled by the Intelligence Industrial Complex, or the 4th and most powerful branch of government. The below bombshell emails do not include the other adverse events like turbo cancers that the globalist bioterrorists always knew would occ…
There is no doubt the clot shots were designed to do lots of different kinds of damage over time; it was all in the FDA “pseudo-approval” documentation. The article below is the sort of analysis the hired gunslingers of the bio-pharmaceutical complex like to attack for things like “sample bias” or “not in a peer-reviewed” journal (or course not, as they…
some say that this reduces risk to children, what do you say? I find interesting & I am seeing shift across Europe after Merkel set funeral pyres ablaze across Europe & Sweden’s girls were gang raped
‘Switzerland’s parliament has approved a ban on face coverings in legislation thought to be targeting Muslim women wearing burqas and niqabs.
The country’s lower parliamentary chamber voted overwhelmingly in favor of the bill on Wednesday, which was passed with 151 votes in favor and 29 against. The upper chamber had previously approved the ban, which was strongly supported by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party. ‘
(inactivated) virus, then how could you call it a ‘vaccine’; this was never vaccine, this COVID injection is a gene slow-kill ‘binary’ bioweapon, the content remains (spike), 2nd stage is coming!!
Top Official: Bill Gates Running ‘Depopulation Experiments’ in AfricaREAD MORE…
LATEST NEWS:
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Biden Stumps Audience by Telling Provably False Story — Then Telling Exact Same Story AGAIN Moments LaterJust call him Biden “two times.” The President of the United States has declined to such a cognitive state where he apparently cannot even remember telling the same story minutes later. At a gathering hosted by billionaire real estate heiress Amy Goldman Fowler, the 80-year-old president recalled his initial retirement after two terms as Barack Obama’s vice president, then shifted …READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
While Hot War Is Raging In Eastern Europe, The Cold War In Asia-Pacific Is Well And Truly Underway
MONDAY, SEP 25, 2023 – 10:20 PM
By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
Comprehensive, But Not Strategic
Equities finished last week lower again as the ‘higher for longer’ narrative continues to be priced in by markets. This despite the Bank of Japan turning the dial a little back towards the dovish side as they left official rates unchanged and dissembled over Governor Ueda’s comments a week or two ago that there may be sufficient evidence of enduring inflation to start lifting rates before the end of the year. Nevertheless, US 10y yields closed the week 10bps higher at 4.43% after briefly touching 4.50% earlier on Friday (the highest since 2007), and crude oil was (mercifully) a little lower, but not by much.
Shifting to geopolitics, we have seen a number of announcements recently of countries entering into ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’. The United States and Vietnam elevated their relationship to a CSP in early September, as did Australia and the Philippines. Back in July, China raised alarm in the Asia-Pacific by entering into a CSP with the Solomon Islands and they have done so again by entering into a similar agreement with Timor-Leste over the weekend.
Part of the agreement with Timor-Leste involves the latter’s recognition of the One China Principle, which carries with it a declaration by Timor-Leste that Taiwan is an “inalienable part of China’s territory and [we] oppose any forms of ‘Taiwan Independence’”. The quid pro quo here is that Timor-Leste gets to participate in the largesse promised by Xi Xinping’s Belt and Road initiative, and perhaps enjoy the Schadenfreude of watching the foreign affairs and defence establishment in Canberra squirm about as China places itself firmly between US naval bases in Guam, Hawaii and the Marshall Islands and Australia’s northern approaches.
So, while the world is quite understandably fixated on the hot war raging in Eastern Europe, the Cold War in the Asia Pacific is well and truly underway, with the major belligerents jockeying for the best strategic positioning. It is in the Asia Pacific where Thucydides Trap will actually play out, or not. Taiwan is undoubtedly the hair trigger, so overt picking of sides on the Taiwan question is a very big deal in the politics of the region.
The United States has been busy trying to ensure that small countries pick their side, so the G7 belatedly stitched together the B3W initiative back in 2021 as a challenger to Belt and Road. Unfortunately, much has happened since that time and the deficit-wracked budgets of the USA and her (mostly) European allies that make up the G7 have so far not seen fit to provide the promised $600bn of funding to seed infrastructure investments in the developing world.
A further strategic initiative was announced on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly last week. The ‘Partnership for Atlantic Cooperation’ emphasizes better economic integration for countries along the Atlantic coastline, and perhaps provides a firewall of sorts to the series of coups moving through central Africa towards the Atlantic coast. Crucially, the agreement includes Brazil, a BRICS+ nation that, like India, is becoming more important in global affairs and has to-date been happy to walk on both sides of the street on the USA/China rivalry.
India itself has been a focus of diplomatic overtures from the G7, but tensions have flared after the Canadian government accused India of assassinating a Sikh separatist leader in British Columbia. This episode undoubtedly creates new headaches for US foreign policy objectives. Former US Defence Department official Michael Rubin pithily described it as “an ant picking a fight with an elephant.”
So, the overall picture is of a US strategic apparatus spread thin and playing whack-a-mole with geopolitical flare-ups that its allies are not much help in solving. While the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Atlantic provide a distraction for policymakers, China continues to build relationships in the Asia Pacific and Middle East, where fellow BRICS+ nation Saudi Arabia is playing a similar game to Brazil. Europe’s capacity to assist is severely hamstrung by its own economic stagnation (witness the poor PMIs released last week) and modest hard power means. In such an environment, US foreign policy has by necessity become comprehensive, but not strategic.
end
A must read….
Sidney Homer’s Odyssey
TUESDAY, SEP 26, 2023 – 10:15 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Bonds were battered again yesterday, the US 10-year closing up 10bps at 4.53%, a new cycle high. “4% or 5% next?”, many are asking. To understand that odyssey, it’s time to dip into Homer.
I don’t mean reading the classics (“Sing to me of the man, Muse, the man of twists and turns”). I don’t mean watching modern classics like The Simpsons (“Lisa, if you don’t like your job, you don’t strike. You just go in every day and do it really half-assed. That’s the American way.”) I am referring to an epic tome on my bookshelf for nearly 20 years: Sidney Homer’s ‘A History of Interest Rates’.
One recent take was that the US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.50% is back to the long-run average… if one takes data back to 1790, when most analysts think looking back to 1970 is long-term. The argument was that the yield high was hence probably now in – and then it rose again. Yes, history is a good guide – but only if you have enough of it. Believe it or not, 1790 is not that far back.
For example, we are likely to see a third consecutive loss in US Treasuries in 2023, which has never happened since US independence. Most would therefore have told you that it ‘could not happen’; history is laughing at the bond bulls who are crying.
That’s partly because (Sidney) Homer makes the case for how unprecedentedly low rates during the New Normal were: the lowest for 5,000 years, or all of recorded history. It made some sense at the time, but the lowest rates in history **for the rest of history** was only logical if, Fukuyama fashion, history was over, and nothing forced rates higher again. But instead we got:
Ultra-tight labour markets, where Austrian metalworkers want an 11.6% pay rise, the striking US UAW have support from both the president and his leading 2024 rival, overall strikes are at a 20-year high, the Wall Street Journal underlines ‘Why America has a Long-Term Labour Crisis, in Six Charts’, and ‘Hollywood Studios, Writers Reach Pact, Haggle on Language’(!), the latter getting what they call an “exceptional” deal with “meaningful gains”.
A major war in Europe that will drag on for years, with concerns over other flashpoints.
Supply destruction, as Nord Stream was blown up, and restrictions were placed on exports from rice to semiconductors. Russia just halted diesel exports, the lifeblood of the physical economy, pushing it’s price up again: France’s Macron may ask firms to sell diesel at cost in response, but slashing their profits and keeping demand for fuel high while supply is constrained won’t work.
Global South ‘dedollarisation’, to little effect so far, but maximum disruption if it does.
Geopolitical fragmentation of global supply chains, with more to come.
Ocean carrier giant Maersk dropping US military contracts to invest more in China. This underlines that the US needs to rebuild its own merchant marine rapidly, and so its shipyards, and so its steel industry, etc., or else end up in very, very ‘Deep Ship’. How else will the US military move stuff around if foreign-owned civilian ships won’t do it?
As the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos quotes Powell at last week’s Fed press conference, “There is a long list,” and even the FOMC’s dovish Goolsbee was hawkish yesterday for those reasons.
Notably, RaboResearch predicted most of this global backdrop years ago. Perhaps we were too early – but better that than too late. Perhaps we were just lucky – or maybe an historical political-economy methodology (i.e., like this) worked. Regardless, today you don’t need as much chutzpah to look at diesel, politics, geopolitics, demographics, deglobalisation, debt levels, the green transition, and massive bond supply ahead as structural factors arguing for the risk of higher rates and bond yields than in the recent past.
Indeed, our Fed-watcher Philip Marey sees the floor in Fed Funds as no lower than 3.5%, lifting short-end bond yields. Further down the curve, the ‘term premia’ is now actually minus 9bp, and looking over the past five years, one could argue it can go down again, moving longer yields lower. However, history back to the 1990s –the 1790s not being available, sadly– shows said term premia have most often been positive, not negative, and as high as 450bp(!)
This doesn’t mean bond yields can’t tumble: they could. However, what an odyssey lies ahead of us if so! That would imply a collapse in inflation, despite structural upside pressures from geopolitics and energy; that would imply a collapse in demand via a surge in unemployment – in a US, UK, and Canadian election year; and governments refusing to spend money to fight it (or to boost defence, or the green transition) – in an election year. It would also imply a quick resolution of US- and EU-China trade tensions, just as Europe is echoing Le Trumpism over EVs, and Trump is saying ‘mercantilism’.
Then again, a collapse in bond yields might imply a financial crisis. However, in the US we’ve already seen the preference –again as RaboResearch flagged in advance– is for rate hikes and acronyms (like BTFP) to tighten and loosen policy at the same time. So, it might then imply a crisis in the Eurodollar market that dwarfs the US banking system. Are we close to the tipping point in the ratio between the on- and off-shore dollar markets, and the geopolitical threshold towards dedollarisation, after which the Fed says “We aren’t saving everyone”? That would bring commodities and inflation down fast – and a lot else with it!
Geopolitically, that all smells like ‘volatility’, to put it mildly. But very volatile periods are also there in Homer. Whether it is the first Cold War; the Vietnam, or Korean Wars; WW2 or WW1; the wars of late European imperialism; the US Civil War; the Reformation and the Wars of Religion; the Middle Ages and the 100-Years War; the rise and fall of the Roman Empire (yes, I am thinking about it now!); or the waxing and waning of the Middle Eastern empires before it – none had long-term rates as low as those we saw from 2008-2020.
In short, just as many say we are not replaying 1970’s yield highs –and I agree, we aren’t– so very long-run bond history does not suggest that 2008-2020 is necessarily a realistic benchmark to look back to today given structural changes of late.
Yet given not everyone agrees, we must embrace a broader variety of Homeric wisdom:
“Our earth is degenerate in these latter days; bribery and corruption are common; children no longer obey their parents; every man wants to write a book, and the end of the world is evidently approaching.” – S. Homer (from an Assyrian tablet, when short-term rates were around 20%)
“Ah how shameless — the way these mortals blame the gods. From us alone, they say, come all their miseries, yes, but they themselves, with their own reckless ways, compound their pains beyond their proper share.” – Homer (when Greek short-term rates were around 10%)
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA/
Awful!
Leftists In Canadian Parliament Seek to Erase Embarrassing Nazi Incident From The Record
In George Orwell’s dystopian novel 1984, he describes a bleak and insidious future in which tyranny is absolute in every sense. It is not just authoritarianism at the barrel of a gun – It is far more sophisticated in that it seeks to control public perception through manipulation rather than simple fear. When the truth becomes relative and the record of what was can no longer be trusted, the ability of a population to find moral and rational footing disappears. The compass of culture is lost because nothing can be learned from the past, and all that is left is the ever changing proclamations of the establishment.
“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.” – 1984
Canada is fast becoming the kind of society that Orwell warned about, along with many other nations under the explicit influence of the political left and globalist institutions. One of the most prominent examples of this is the handling of the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has been so obscured in propaganda among government and legacy media sources it is nearly impossible to sort out truth from fiction.
In particular, the numerous unsettling associations between the Ukraine government and neo-nazi organizations within the ranks of the military have been heavily redacted from mainstream discussion. Back in 2014, these associations were criticized by the western media. Today, they are ignored, and anyone who points them out is attacked as a “conspiracy theorist.” Why? Because the establishment wants public support for Ukraine regardless of the circumstances, even though Ukraine has little or nothing to do with the interests of the western public.
The irony is, of course, dripping. The political left has long used the accusation of “fascism” to attack conservatives and anyone else who has dared to stand in their way. But for the past year, they have in fact been actively supporting actual Nazis in Ukraine (and there are multiple groups beyond the Azov battalions), demanding more arms and billions of dollars be sent each month. Leftists and Neo-cons have dismissed these groups as nothing more than a tiny fragment of the wider Ukrainian effort, but then, they shot themselves in the foot…
The Canadian House of Commons, with Speaker Anthony Rota and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in attendance, gave two standing ovations for a guest of Vladimir Zelensky, 98-year-old Yaroslav Hunka, who was presented as a “war hero” who fought against Soviet invasion. The problem is that he did this as a member of the 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS, “a Nazi military unit whose crimes against humanity during the Holocaust are well-documented,” according to the Friends of Simon Wiesenthal Center.
How Hunka made it past the vetting process and into the House of Commons is a mystery. Some have suggested that it was pure stupidity on the part of the Canadian government; others have asserted that they knew exactly who he was and believed the public would not become wise to his background. Much like the “Ghost of Kiev”, nothing out of Ukraine can ever be taken at face value.
When Justin Trudeau finally spoke on the incident, he called it “deeply embarrassing”, but then deflected questions with more accusations against Russia:
“I think it’s going to be really important that all of us push back against Russian propaganda, Russian disinformation and continue our steadfast and unequivocal support for Ukraine, as we did last week, with announcing further measures to stand with Ukraine in Russia’s illegal war against it…”
There was no Russia propaganda involved in the Hunka blunder, that was all Canada’s doing.
Now, instead of admitting to the underlying problem of Nazi influences in Ukraine and honoring an open discussion about the purpose of the proxy war, leftists within Canada’s Parliament are instead seeking to erase all official records of the incident including video records and the original text of Speaker Rota’s comments.
In other words, leftists want to use the classic Stalinist method of memory-holing historic information that does not work in their favor. This move was ultimately blocked by house conservatives, but it shows one thing clearly – That the political left has no qualms over historic manipulation at the governmental level. We have seen this behavior among activists, and hints of it within the halls of various national oligarchies, but now the demands are becoming bold and brazen. Yaroslav Hunka was happily mingling with Canada’s leaders just a few days ago, and they are already trying to wipe the incident from the books.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0606 UP 0.0015
USA/ YEN 148.84 UP 0.017 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2185 DOWN 0.0027
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3500 UP .0050 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 50 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 13.33 PTS OR 0.33%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 262.39 PTS OR 1.48%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.55% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 262,39 PTS OR 1.48%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 13.33 PTS OR 0.73%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.55%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 363.57 PTS OR 1.11%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1912.70
silver:$23.04
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 105.59 DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.3113
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.3138)
TURKISH LIRA: 27.25 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.729…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 12 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.555% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.681 UP 14 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.142 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 1.73 POINTS or 0.02%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 149.82 PTS OR 0.97%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 49.86 PTS OR 0.703%
Spain IBEX DOWN 19.10 PTS OR 0.20%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 283,31 PTS OR 1.00%
WTI Oil price 90.59 12: EST
Brent Oil: 94.14 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 96.38; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 14//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.8055 UP 7 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.3735 UP 9 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0565 DOWN 0.0026 OR 26 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2153 DOWN .0057 or 57 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.3760% UP 9 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .725%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.07 UP .247 //YEN DOWN 75 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3471 DOWN .0007 CDN dollar UP 7 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 90.56
Brent OIL: 93.98
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 12 BASIS pts to 4.564% (FROM FRIDAY)
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 17 BASIS PTS to 4.692% (FROM FRIDAY
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT 5.127 %
USA dollar index: 105,24 UP 1/2 BASIS POINTS (FROM FRIDAY)
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.26 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 96.38 DOWN 0 AND 14/100 roubles
GOLD 1900.00
SILVER: 22.88
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 388.10 PTS OR 1.14%
NASDAQ DOWN 223.07 PTS OR 1.51%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.08 DOWN 2.18 PTS (12.90)%
GLD: $176.28 DOWN 1.42 OR 0.80%
SLV/ $20.96 DOWN 0.24 OR 1.13%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Wrath Of Khan Wrecks Tech As Downbeat Dimon Batters Bonds, Bullion, & Banks
TUESDAY, SEP 26, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Jamie Dimon dares to question goldilocks/soft-landing narratives overnight, warning that The Fed may be forced by stickier inflation to hike rates further (to 7%) fearing a stagflationary scenario that no one is prepared for… and (away from the main headlines), Dimon warned of more bank failures as rate rise (and that didn’t help) as the KBW Bank Index fell below the initial SVB collapse levels…
Source: Bloomberg
Then the macro data started with Dallas Fed Services and Manufacturing ugly (prices up, activity down), new home sales finally hitting the wall (as homebuilders folded on filling the affordability gap and their stock prices are starting to realize that)…
Source: Bloomberg
…then consumer confidence crumbled (driven by a slump in hope and worsening labor market conditions). Overall, ‘hard’ data is near 5-month lows, as ‘soft’ survey data hits its highest since Jan 2022, sending ‘hope’ about as high it goes (before the soft surveys collapse)…
Source: Bloomberg
Add to that the wrath of Lina Khan as the FTC sued Amazon (again) and that was enough – with corporate buybacks blacked out still – to take the equity market lower, dollar higher, gold lower, and yields higher (rising after early declines).
Khan to Amazon/Bezos: “I’ve done far worse than kill you. I’ve hurt you. And I wish to go on hurting you… I mean to avenge myself upon you, Amazon.”
AMZN at 3-mo lows…
Early on we saw the Megacap Tech names getting hit hard (while unprofitable tech was not), which Goldman suggested was driven by derisking overall. But as the selling continued, everything was dragged lower…
Source: Bloomberg
The drag of the Magnificent 7 weighed everything down with Nasdaq and S&P the big underperformers on the day, but everything was ugly…
0-DTE traders countered the initial thrust lower after the cash open (as the S&P broke below the Put-Wall at 4300), but as Khan unleashed her FTC ear-bugs,
The last month has seen both Value and Growth stocks hammered as the broad market weakens, but most notably, the Russell 2000 Value index is now in the red YTD (down around 3%)…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX soared up near 20 today, its highest since May and VVIX surged up into the danger-zone above 100…
Source: Bloomberg
The long-end of the yield curve was sold again today with 30Y yields up another 4bps to fresh cycle highs (and the 2Y auctioned at 16 year highs)…
Source: Bloomberg
And that sent the yield curve (2s30s) steeper still (to its least inverted since May)…
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks and Bond (Prices) are moving more and more in sync (with correlation between yields and stock prices nearing their lower limit)…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar rallied for the 5th day in a row to its strongest since Dec 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
And as the dollar rallied, so gold was clubbed like a baby seal with spot prices testing back below $1900..
Oil ended the day higher, back above $90 (despite the strong dollar) bouncing back hard from an overnight plunge…
Finally, the Magnificent 7 stocks have lost over $1 trillion in market cap from their July highs falling back to near 4-month lows.
Source: Bloomberg
From Greed to Fear… fast!
That escalated quickly… as suddenly the markets’ blinkers on consumer strength (remember Bidenomics) are ripped off.
TUCKER CARLSON..
Watch: Tucker Carlson Spits Fire In Anti-Abortion Speech
MONDAY, SEP 25, 2023 – 10:00 PM
Tucker Carlson gave quite the sermon last Thursday as the key note speaker at a gala fundraiser thrown by the Center for Christian Virtue at the Cleveland Marriott.
In it, the former Fox News host whose audience just went vertical on “X” railed against abortion, referring to it as ‘human sacrifice’ – a notion which Tucker said is antithetical to the biological drive to continue the human race, and which therefore must have been planted in people’s heads by ‘outside forces.’
“It’s not a natural human function to want to kill your own children,” said Carlson. “Actually that’s an idea an Impulse that was introduced. Outside forces are acting on people at all times throughout history, in every culture on the planet, to convince people that if they sacrifice their children they will be happy and safe – and that’s exactly what this is,” said Carlson.
One can’t help but conclude that Carlson’s comments – and those from Ron Paul (from a different angle) – are a direct pushback to a notion floated by former President Donald Trump that Republicans should soften their stance on abortion – perhaps agreeing on a certain number of months during which killing an unborn child is acceptable.
Carlson starts out lamenting the current state of political discourse vs. those of past decades.
“For most of that time, the debates that we had in the political sphere were over competing visions for how to improve people’s lives,” he said, using the example of minimum wage – and how both Republicans and Democrats were ” at least pretending to try to improve the lives of the people who voted for them.”
But now, the two top ballot initiatives now encourage actions Carlson sees as fundamentally destructive: advocating for abortion and drug use.
“When you wind up in an election with the two top ballot initiatives are one encouraging people to kill their own kids and two encourage their kids to do drugs, who’s benefiting here?” asked Carlson, who argued that these issues are of no benefit to society – and instead erode its very foundation.
Abortion
Carlson then segues into abortion, arguing that the left is promoting anti-family values, when “the point of life is to have children and to watch them have grandchildren.”
“Anyone telling you don’t have children, kill your children, is not your friend, is your enemy,” he continued, adding that the current debate about abortion transcends politics; it is a spiritual battle. No longer confined to discussions about unwanted pregnancies resulting from unfortunate circumstances, the contemporary narrative, according to Carlson, posits that the left has championed abortion as a pathway to joy in itself.
Carlson also took a shot at the Episcopal Church, which he ‘grew up’ in, but which “crumbled around us and became this very aggressively Pagan institution.”
But, with regional bank stock suddenly facing up to the balance-sheet-wrecking reality of soaring bond yields (plunging bond prices), all eyes are on bank deposits (after seeing inflows the prior week).
On a seasonally-adjusted basis, total deposits fell $6.6BN – basically unchanged now since March and the initial SVB-driven crash…
Source: Bloomberg
On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, total deposits tumbled $17BN…
Source: Bloomberg
For now the trend of inflows favoring money-market funds over bank deposits is holding…
Source: Bloomberg
Overall, domestic US banks saw outflows ($35BN SA, $40BN NSA)…
Source: Bloomberg
With Large Banks seeing a major $42BN (SA) outflow and Small Banks a $8BN SA outflow (as Foreign Banks gained $12BN)…
Source: Bloomberg
On the other side of the ledger, loan volumes picked up with both large ($6BN) and small ($3.5BN) seeing increases…
Source: Bloomberg
The key warning sign continues to trend lower (Small Banks’ reserve constraint), supported above the critical level by The Fed’s emergency funds (for now)…
Source: Bloomberg
We suspect the lack of Small Bank deposit outflows relative to Large banks will soon converge as balance sheets are wrecked by more bond bloodbathery…
Source: Bloomberg
As one veteran trader hinted, “It’s almost time for another small bank failure so Jamie Dimon can soak up all their deposits… basically QT is directly impacting ONLY large banks… and when large bank cash drops enough a small bank has to be sacrificed.”
Finally, we leave you with one thought – in 6 months and counting, America’s ‘smaller’ banks will need to find that $100-billion plus from somewhere as that is when the BTFP bailout program ends (theoretically). Will regional bank balance sheets be stabilized by then?
Source: Bloomberg
Given the current bloodbathery in bond-land, we suspect we will know sooner rather than later.
end
USA home prices hit new record highs despite soaring mortgage rates
(zerohedge)
US Home Prices Hit New Record High, Despite Soaring Mortgage Rates
TUESDAY, SEP 26, 2023 – 09:18 AM
US home prices rose for the 5th straight month in July (the latest data from Case-Shiller), jumping 0.9% MoM and shifting into the green (+0.1%) on a year-over-year basis for the first time since February, hitting a new record high…
Source: Bloomberg
“That said, regional differences continue to be striking. On a year-over-year basis, the Revenge of the Rust Belt continues…” Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement Tuesday.
The three best-performing metropolitan areas in July were Chicago (+4.4%), Cleveland (+4.0%), and New York (+3.8%), repeating the ranking we saw in May and June. The bottom of the leader board reshuffled somewhat, with Las Vegas (-7.2%) and Phoenix (-6.6%) this month’s worst performers.
All of the cities at all-time highs are in the Eastern or Central time zones, and with two exceptions (Dallas and Tampa), all of the cities not at all-time highs are in the Pacific or Mountain time zones. The Midwest (+3.2%) continues as the nation’s strongest region, followed by the Northeast (+2.3%). The West (-3.8%) and Southwest (-3.6%) remain the weakest regions.
“On a year-to-date basis, the National Composite has risen 5.3%, which is well above the median full calendar year increase in more than 35 years of data. Although the market’s gains could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic weakness, the breadth and strength of this month’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future results,” Lazarra said.
And judging by the continued surge in mortgage rates since the Case-Shiller data (July), rational actors might expect prices to resume their decline…
Source: Bloomberg
But, when selling volumes and inventory are so low, anything can happen. Certainly not the tamping-down of home unaffordability that The Fed would have been hoping for.
end
New home sales crashed in August due to higher mortgage costs
(zerohedge)
US New Home Sales Crashed In August
TUESDAY, SEP 26, 2023 – 10:12 AM
After months of soaring in the face of higher mortgage rates (and higher prices), new home sales hit a wall in August, crashing 8.7% MoM – the biggest drop since Sept 2022 (and four times worse than the -2.2% MoM expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the lowest SAAR since March…
The median sales price of a new home edged lower to $430,300 (average home price rose), according to the Commerce Department’s report.
Despite the decline, that’s still well above pre-pandemic levels.
As a reminder, according to a report released Friday by Redfin Corp, nearly 60,000 deals to purchase homes fell through in August (roughly 16% of homes that went under contract last month, the biggest share of cancellations since October).
“I’ve seen more homebuyers cancel deals in the last six months than I’ve seen at any point during my 24 years of working in real estate,” Jaime Moore, a Redfin agent, said in the report.
“They’re getting cold feet.”
A potential silver lining is the rising in supply (but now much that is driven by a decline in the denominator – homes sold – vs numerator – homes available; is unclear)…
Is the catch-down to reality about to begin?
Source: Bloomberg
They should, given that homebuilders can’t be filling this gap – between the current 30Y mortgage rate and the effective rates that borrowers are currently paying on their home loans – (i.e. subsidizing new home sales) forever…
Source: Bloomberg
And investors are starting to wake up too…
Is Jay Powell about to get the ‘affordability’ compression he was hoping for?
end
Dallas Fed signals stagflation
(zerohedge)
“The Outlook Is Dismal” – Dallas Fed Surveys Signal Stagflation Threat In September
TUESDAY, SEP 26, 2023 – 10:55 AM
September was an ugly month for Texas with both Manufacturing and Services surveys chock-full of disappointment and stagflationary signals.
The goods news – growth in Texas factory activity resumed in September, according to the Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey, with the production index rebounding a somewhat shocking 20 points to +7.9 – its highest reading of the year.
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Democratic Mayor of Dallas becomes a Republican
(zerohedge)
Democratic Mayor Of Dallas: “American Cities Need Republicans… & I’m Becoming One”
FRIDAY, SEP 22, 2023 – 06:00 PM
While the Democratic Mayor of Dallas says the city has thrived, Eric Johnson writes in a very frank WSJ op-ed that, elsewhere, Democratic policies have exacerbated crime and homelessness.
“The future of America’s great urban centers depends on the willingness of the nation’s mayors to champion law and order and practice fiscal conservatism.
Our cities desperately need the genuine commitment to these principles (as opposed to the inconsistent, poll-driven commitment of many Democrats) that has long been a defining characteristic of the GOP.”
As we have written in detail previously, cities governed by Democrat mayors have seen the largest increases in homicide rates over the past year as well as registered the highest homicide rate per capita in Q1 out of 45 cities, according to a new report.
Homicide rates in 45 of the most populated American cities rose by approximately 10 percent on average between Q1, 2021 and Q1, 2023, and continue to rise, according to an April 26 report by WalletHub. Blue cities were found to have a higher increase in homicide rates compared to red cities. The report designated a city as red or blue based on the mayor’s political affiliation.
The top five cities that saw the greatest increase in per capita homicide are Richmond, Virginia; Memphis, Tennessee; Durham, North Carolina; Garland, Texas; and Washington, D.C.
Except for Garland, where Mayor Scott LeMay is a Republican, the remaining four cities have mayors who are affiliated with the Democratic Party.
The highest homicide rate per capita in the first quarter of 2023 was in Memphis at 14.19 per 100,000 residents. New Orleans, Louisiana, came in second at 12.76, followed by Baltimore, Maryland, with 10.47, St. Louis, Missouri, with 9.91, and Detroit, Michigan, with 8.52.
Excluding St. Louis, the other four cities have mayors affiliated with the Democratic Party. The mayor of St. Louis, Tishaura Jones, was a former Democrat member of the Missouri House of Representatives.
“In other words,” the Dallas Mayor adds:
“American cities need Republicans – and Republicans need American cities.”
And that’s exactly what he does – changing his party affiliation to ‘Republican’, ready to leave office in 2027 as a Republican.
He is able to lift the ‘mask’ and see the problem that troubles so many of America’s cities.
“Unfortunately, many of our cities are in disarray… Most of these local leaders are proud Democrats who view cities as laboratories for liberalism rather than as havens for opportunity and free enterprise.”
Again, he nails it, daring to suggest the unmentionables that we have previously reported, Gregg W. Etter, a professor at the Department of Criminal Justice at the University of Central Missouri, blamed the tendency of politicians to seek “simplistic, one-size-fits-all solutions to complex problems” as a reason behind the spike in homicides across the nation.
Politicians offer such solutions to gain favor with political interest groups during elections, he pointed out. For instance, when faced with the issue of police using force in isolated instances, such politicians might support defunding the police rather than dealing with problematic officers.
This ends up resulting in a less-effective police force, higher response times, lower morale among officers, and an “increasing unwillingness” to engage in proactive policing, he said.
“This has left many police forces in a strictly reactive mode, only responding to crimes that have already occurred. In addition, no-cash bail rulings have put many dangerous criminals back onto the streets even though they are arrested several times for violent crimes,” Etter said.
“In cities where these two things are happening, the crime rate has spiked. You have less police officers and more dangerous criminals at large.”
“Too often, local tax dollars are spent on policies that exacerbate homelessness, coddle criminals and make it harder for ordinary people to make a living,” writes Johnson.
“And too many local Democrats insist on virtue signaling – proposing half-baked government programs that aim to solve every single societal ill – and on finding new ways to thumb their noses at Republicans at the state or federal level. Enough. This makes for good headlines, but not for safer, stronger, more vibrant cities.”
He concludes, with a strong suggestion at the ballot box
“…the overwhelming majority of Americans who call our cities home deserve to have real choices—not “progressive” echo chambers—at city hall.”
We can only imagine the anger raging among the leftists as this one man steps up and unleashes the terrible truth about liberal-run urbania. You’re not supposed to say any of that in your out-loud voice.
They have become the broken records of gloom: since late 2022, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and JPM’s Marko Kolanovic have peddled a bearish narrative that has been as relentless as it has been wrong, and even when the S&P rose more than 1000 points from its Oct 2022 lows (roughly around the time the formerly permabullish Kolanovic turned into a bear), they have refused to change their tune even as their more nimble (and flip-floppy) Wall Street peers such as BofA’s Savita Subramanian and Goldman’s David Kostin turned from mega bears to ultra bulls months ago.
Now, as we noted back in February, the rally most likely won’t end until Mike and Marko finally capitulate, and so far that has certainly been the case….
… although it increasingly appears that instead of capitulating, the stubborn duo plans on staying bearish as long as it takes to catch the next bear market, even if it means the S&P hitting a new all time high first, and then when stocks finally do drop they will jump out of the bushes and scream “told you so”, assuming they are still employed by then of course (and one can be certain they have some powerful and unhappy clients who were kept out of the market meltup of 2023, and who are doing everything in their power to make M&M join the weekly initial claims rolls).
Still, with every week that passes and that the market does not plunge, the litany of argument proposed by the duo of doom may eventually hit the market, and today’s note by Wilson is the closest one to the target yet.
Pointing out that “since 2Q earnings season” but what he really means is since the Fed’s final, July, rate hike (something Michael Hartnett has long been hammering the table on as the straw that breaks the market’s back)…
… Wilson writes that stocks have “taken on a different personality”:
Starting with a “sell the news” reaction to earnings results, weakening price action has permeated to early cycle sectors and even to some of this year’s biggest winners more recently.
Then, echoing what we said last week, the Morgan Stanley strategist writes that the breakdown in performance breadth within Consumer Discretionary “is particularly notable” and supports the view of Morgan Stanley’s economists that “consumer spending is unlikely to keep up with the surprisingly strong pace witnessed in the first 3 quarters of the year.”
Let’s dig in a little more into the report.
Wilson starts off by rehashing one of his preferred themes: that market internals have been supportive of the notion that we’re in a late cycle backdrop with high quality balance sheet factors outperforming, and while defensives have also resumed their outperformance, cyclicals have underperformed. “Value has been aided by strong performance from the Energy sector, while growth has underperformed recently given the interest rate move. Given our relative preference for defensives, we provide the valuation summary in Exhibit 6 across defensive sectors. In terms of absolute multiples, Utilities trades the cheapest (~16x), while Staples trades the richest (~19x).”
At the same time, Wilson writes that “Utilities and Staples look the cheapest (bottom 25% of historical relative valuation levels), while Health Care relative valuation is a bit more elevated. That said, all 3 defensive sectors presented trade in the bottom 50% of historical relative valuation levels, implying that multiples remain undemanding for the cohort.”
The uber-bear then points out that breadth under the surface of the market (as measured by equal vs. cap weight performance) looks the strongest in Industrials and Energy, which are “late-cycle” cyclical areas in which he claims that he “continues to be constructive on a relative basis.”
This, of course, is Wilson’s way of sneaking a longish position in his overwhelmingly bearish view on stocks, by going long “just a few sectors”, then if everything rips, he can claim he was right, even if he has been telling clients to short the S&P ever since 3900. Good luck with that particular form of “flexibility”. Here is the rest of Wilson’s observation on market breadth:
… equal weight vs. cap weight performance for the market overall and for the majority of sectors continues to look weak and has decelerated in recent weeks. Further, just ~30% of stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 YTD and only about half of the stocks in the index are up on the year ( Exhibit 9 ). As we have discussed recently, this type of backdrop has very much put the focus back on stock picking.
And while any half-hearted pivot by Wilson to turn semi-bullish will crash and burn, where the MS strategist may have a valid point is his criticism of consumer stocks: he writes that as with the technical/breadth set-up for consumer stocks looking particularly challenged around current levels…
… what is the anchor thesis behind Wilson’s condemnation of the consumer sector is that the “price action is picking up on slowing consumer spend, student loan payments resuming, rising delinquencies in certain household cohorts, higher gas prices and weakening data in the housing sector.”
Wilson then turns to the bank’s economists, saying they “judiciously avoided making the recession call earlier this year when it was a consensus view” and who now see “a weakening consumer spending backdrop from here—they forecast negative real PCE growth in 4Q and a muted recovery thereafter.”
Furthermore, while travel and leisure has been a bright spot for consumption, that dynamic is now also changing to some extent. Here are some more details on that:
Summer travel season was robust this year with approximately 2.5 million people passing through TSA checkpoints daily– higher than volumes seen pre-pandemic during summer 2019. Excess savings and pent-up demand helped fuel this travel boom but both of those tailwinds may now be dwindling according to our economists’ views.
A significant proportion of US consumers have drawn down their Covid era excess savings and our US Economics team estimates that lower-income households have fully exhausted their excess savings, while middle- and higher-income households are less willing to spend their excess savings on discretionary consumption. We are underweight the consumer discretionary sector as the consumer becomes increasingly stretched and discretionary travel is one area where consumers could show an appetite to conserve spending. We are seeing travel companies exposed to the lower-income consumer indicating signs of demand weakness.
The Gaming & Lodging industry has been cooling especially in the economy segment of the market. Overall revenue per available room (RevPAR) for US hotels has been tracking at a lower trajectory for 3Q vs 2Q and hotel occupancy is down vs 2019. Economy RevPAR has been consistently down 3-4% yoy since April. While on the high-end, luxury RevPAR was down 4% in April, then flat-to-down 2% through summer and down 3% MTD for September ( Exhibit 14 and Exhibit 15 ). Economy and luxury hotel demand is largely driven by leisure, consumer travel rather than business travel. There has also been weakness in the regional casino space over the past 6 months.
Our most recent AlphaWise Consumer Survey shows that consumers want to keep traveling and 58% of respondents are planning to travel over the next 6 months. However, net spending plans for international travel declined from 0% last month to -8% this month, indicating consumers are planning fewer pricey overseas trips ( Exhibit 16 ). Domestic travel plans without a flight moved higher. This indicates that consumers want to keep traveling but are increasingly looking at taking cheaper trips and are choosing destinations they can drive or take a train to vs. having to fly.
In conclusion, Wilson remains as bearish as always (with some notable carve outs, like being long energy and industrials) and his hope is that this time it is the consumer that finally proves to be the camels that break’s this market rally’s back. His conclusion is that “investors should avoid rotating into early cycle winners like consumer cyclicals, housing-related / interest-rate sensitive sectors, and small caps” and instead they should “barbell” of large-cap defensive growth with “late-cycle” cyclical winners like Energy and Industrials. So yes, Wilson is evolving, and far from shorting the market, his take-home reco is a targeted long. Whether that is tantamount to full-blown capitulation is unclear, but if stocks do crash in the coming days, the answer is a resounding yes.
America has been in a veritable cultural revolution since the 1960s. Nearly all our major institutions finally became woke—the administrative state, traditional and social media, universities, K-12, the corporate boardroom, entertainment, professional sports, and the foundations.
So the Obama and the Biden administrations finally seemed to have achieved their aims, in what the Obamas once boasted would be the “fundamental transformation” of America into something unrecognizable by its Founders. But what they gave us was nihilism—the destruction of norms, laws, and customs. There is no border, no criminal justice system, no real president any more.
The citizen is a serf, the illegal alien the veritable citizen. The former needs a passport to reenter the country, the latter is waved on through. There is a slob in gym shorts and a hoodie establishing dress codes for the Senate, teen murderers bragging that they won’t spend a day in jail, and a would-be state legislator filming herself doing sexual gymnastics while begging for cash only to be upset over the invasion of her “privacy.” So the Left got what it wanted and gave us our new America.
The curious result, however, is that even the elite Left is now forced to live among, and cannot always escape, the ruination it created—and for the first time is becoming slightly unhappy with what it birthed.
Critical legal theory has now trickled down into most of our large cities. It insists that criminals are not criminals at all, but rather victims of prior racial and class oppressions. Thus their victims should blame society for their injuries, not their predatory victimizers. Critical legal theory is a sort of Marxist redistribution schema—the middle class almost deserves its equal share of violence commensurate with that of the inner city.
As a result, in Chicago and Oakland and hundreds of other cities, prosecutors let out criminals without bail or sometimes even indictments—in part out of spite and hatred of middle- and upper-middle-class America that supposedly deserves a payback for its bourgeois indifference, in part out of sheer ignorance of the unleashing of human nature once all deterrence is removed.
And the result?
Anxious liberal professionals are fleeing our major cities in the greatest out-of-state migrations since the 1930s. Or they simply avoid their own downtowns. Or sometimes they are reduced to putting placards in their parked cars begging criminals not to smash and loot them, or, for the richer, hiring their own security guards, or using apps to warn others against deposits of urban human excrement on downtown sidewalks.
The Left, aside from their desire for new dependent constituents, felt borders were anachronistic constructs that unfairly denied the inherent and universal human right of the poor and oppressed to go anywhere they pleased, without legality or permission of their targeted hosts. So they erased the southern border. Some 7-8 million illegal entries followed since January 2021.
And the result?
African-Americans in Chicago are demonstrating against mass influxes of illegal aliens into their cities who bury entitlements and social services. The Left used to calls such protests “xenophobia.”
Leftwing New York Mayor Eric Adams has gone from calling those racists who opposed illegal immigration to becoming a veritable nativist. He is now screaming that illegal aliens are “destroying” his city, damning the Biden administration, and warning of bankruptcy. Adams too is unhappy that leftists like himself finally got what they wanted.
Progressives recalibrated a tiny sliver of the population—well less than 1 percent—experiencing historically documented biological “sexual dysphoria” and announced that transgenderism was now both commonplace and an existential civil rights crisis involving anywhere from 5 to 20 percent of American youth and up to 40 percent on college campuses that appeal to the elite leftwing rich kids.
The Left demanded official recognition of multiple genders, the green-lighting of biological males competing in women’s sports, the mainstreaming of risqué drag queen shows often before audiences of minors, and the preemptive smearing of anyone who believed that sexuality is biologically determined rather than fluidly socially constructed.
And the result?
Corporate pile-ons and trendy transgendered advocacies have ruined Bud Light, once American’s premier beer brand. The once beloved but now woke and arrogant Disney Corporation is bleeding audiences, customers, and subscribers. Due to its provocative arrogance, Disney managed to become all but despised by half the nation. Ditto other woke major corporations from Target to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Parents—many of them doctrinaire liberals—of gifted female athletes whose careers are derailed by transgender males, of teenage girls who must use locker rooms with biological males, of small children who witness in-your-face drag queen exhibitions—now feel bushwhacked by their own prior advocacy.
The Left has waged a war on fossil fuels for decades. But once in power it has cancelled critical pipelines, restricted federal oil and gas leases, hectored oil and gas lenders, shut down entire oil fields, and issued arbitrary deadlines when internal combustion engines are to be banned, and clean burning natural gas appliances to be phased out.
And the result of turning the nation “green”?
Gasoline prices spiked to all-time highs, hurting most the poor and minorities, the supposed political base of the Democratic Party. When elections near, only then does a panicked Left begin draining the strategic petroleum reserve, while begging illiberal regimes abroad to pump more oil that they we will not—in a desperate effort to lower gas and diesel prices, at least temporarily until elections are over.
Bicoastal wealthy elites lecture down to Americans about the existential crisis of “climate change” and the radical revolutions necessary to “transition” (a favorite, multipurpose woke word) to solar, wind, and battery power.
And the result?
Those who can least afford high energy prices now pay over $5 a gallon for gas and more for diesel in our wealthiest coastal blue states—on the directive of their affluent utopian advocates.
Leftwing rich liberals for a half century have virtue signaled their support for affirmative action and de facto racial quotas. The unspoken presumption was that they would always have the wherewithal to navigate around such systemic discrimination to ensure their own still went to the “right” colleges and universities and onto prestigious jobs and positions.
But then the woke revolution redefined affirmative action as “reparatory” admissions and hiring. That radical expansion of racial quotas meant elite universities like Stanford and Princeton soon bragged in racist fashion that they would only admit so-called whites as 20-30 percent of their incoming classes, despite their traditional proportional representation of 65-70 percent of the general population.
Soon such progressive discriminatory policies meant that after athletes, so-called legacies, the children of faculty and administrators, and the offspring of multimillionaire donors were accommodated, the new tiny white quotas were completely exhausted—even for the anointed children of the bicoastal left.
High-paid suburban and progressive professionals whose privileged, and high achieving sons and daughters with 4.0-plus grade point averages and near perfect SAT scores, with an array of “community service” blue-ribbon resumés—were summarily rejected en mass from America’s most prestigious schools.
Prior SAT camps, prep schools, tutors, “extracurricular” enrichment summer excisions, and prestigious internships and apprenticeships went all for naught under the new racism.
And the result of the war on meritocracy?
Elite liberals were shocked, shocked!
Such reverse-discrimination had traditionally targeted solely the children of deplorables, irredeemables, and clingers, the meritocratic lower white working classes, who were usually preposterously written off as white privileged and supremacists and thus usually summarily rejected. Yet the architects of affirmative action never dreamed that their Frankensteinian creation would devolve into a quota monster devouring its parent.
As far as the professors, who opportunistically applauded the new -studies therapeutic courses, the DEI-apparat, the reparatory admissions, as well as the end of SAT and ACT scores and of the comparative ranking of high-school GPAs?
For those who taught real disciplines—languages, traditional history and literature, science, math, and engineering—they faced three dilemmas under the new nonmeritocratic admissions: 1) inflate their grades, 2) reduce class requirements, or 3) maintain grading and course standards and thus be targeted by DEI commissars should their grading reveal a “systemic” pattern of “racism.”
After spending their careers damning administrative “bloat,” and the siphoning of university resources from teaching to fund administrative fiefdoms, suddenly faculty were forced to agree that they needed thousands of DEI supervisors and commissars, who were even more superfluous but also far more intrusive into faculty autonomy than the old-boy functionaries of the past.
The result?
Is it now “All administrators are bad, but some are not as bad as others?”
These examples of liberal utopianism backfiring on its godfathers are becoming endless as the Jacobin revolution known as woke destroys meritocracy, the ancient laws of human nature, pragmatism, and common sense. Will the revolution then finally wither away once it continues to gulp down its own privileged woke sacred cows?
Perhaps, but perhaps not.
Woke is a religion, not an empirically based revolution. It requires blind faith and ideological zealotry that ignores data, smears apostates as blasphemers, and is fueled by a climate of fear as it uses public shaming, cancel culture, doxing, shadow banning, ostracism, and career destruction to bulldoze ahead.
That it is now mowing down its originators may not matter much, even if for the short term the current boomeranging should be teaching leftists that their ideology is unworkable and ultimately destructive of civilization. History, after all, is replete with misguided zealots who even to the very first shot of their own firing squads still believed in the catastrophic cultural and political upheavals they had unleashed on others.
Partly woke continues, then, because its privileged creators still cling to the belief, “What I create for others, certainly will not apply to me and mine.” And when it does, as it is beginning to now, they stay long in denial and continue their woke advocacy because they still hope their progressive piety and fides will someday earn them heaven on earth.
end
USA// COVID//VACCINE/
end
SWAMP STORIES
THIS IS NOTHING BUT A BIG JOKE!
Hunter Biden Sues Giuliani For ‘Hacking’ His Abandoned Laptop
TUESDAY, SEP 26, 2023 – 10:45 AM
Hunter Biden, who abandoned his laptop – the Rosetta stone of his family’s corruption, at a Delaware repair shop, has sued Rudy Giuliani and his longtime lawyer Robert Costello, alleging that they violated federal and California-based fraud laws in order to disseminate potentially damaging material.
According to the complaint, Giuliani and Costello broke the law when they accessed the data given them to by the owner of said shop, John Paul Mac Isaac – who Hunter sued in March. More recently, the younger Biden also sued a former Trump White House aide for publishing the contents of his laptop on his website, Marco Polo. (Mac Isaac sued Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), CNN, Politico and the Daily Beast in May of 2022 for suggesting he was a Kremlin operative. The case is still pending in Sussex County, Del.).
“In light of the foregoing illegal activities by Defendants, their refusals to cease and desist in their unlawful behavior, and their apparent intention to continue violating the law in the future, Plaintiff has no alternative but to commence this lawsuit,” Biden’s attorney wrote in the suit filed on Tuesday in Los Angeles federal court.
Giuliani and his allies have long argued that the purported laptop was fair game because it was allegedly abandoned. But at the heart of the lawsuit is the argument that regardless of where any piece of computer hardware was located, Hunter Biden’s data still belongs to him alone. A member of his legal team, granted anonymity to discuss his newly aggressive legal strategy, put it this way: “If you take your coat to the dry cleaner and leave your wallet in it, and you forget to pick it up, it doesn’t mean the dry cleaner gets the wallet and all your money. It’s just common sense.” –Politico
“Everyone involved in stealing and manipulating Hunter’s data should be hearing footsteps right about now,” said a member of Hunter’s legal team who hinted that more litigation could follow.
Hunter’s laptop has been key to several investigations by Congressional Republicans, data from which his attorneys claim has been “manipulated, altered and damaged before it was copied and sent to Defendants (Giuliani and Costello),” and that “Defendants’ illegal hacking and tampering has involved further alterations and damages to the data to a degree that is presently unknown to [Biden].”
Hunter’s new lawsuit also points to various public statements by Giuliani and Costello which describe accessing the hard drive, including that they’ve scrutinized thousands of emails, financial records and personal photos.
He seeks monetary damages from Giuliania, his businesses, and Costello, as well as an injunction that would bar the pair and their associates from further accessing Biden’s data.
So, it wasn’t a Russian disinformation campaign?
END
What an absolute doorknob!. The safety of USA citizens is as stake. he must be impeached immediately
(zerohedge)
Biden Orders Border Patrol To Cut Barbed Wire Fences Holding Back Masses Of Migrants
TUESDAY, SEP 26, 2023 – 01:25 PM
Only five days ago, the Mayor of Eagle Pass, Texas issued an emergency order due to a huge influx of illegal immigrants crossing into the US from Mexico, and only a few days after that the latest border numbers revealed record migrant crossings in 2023 (over 2.2 million so far). Despite the multitude of warnings since Joe Biden entered the White House, there has been no discernible effort on the part of the federal government to stop the tide.
In fact, more and more evidence suggests the Biden Administration is deliberately thwarting all efforts to secure the southern border while consistently lying about their intentions.
Case in point, Biden fought to end Title 42, which was the only legal recourse keeping abuse of the asylum option in check. Biden has filed a lawsuit asking courts to stop Texas efforts to fence off the Rio Grande with bright orange razor wire buoys, which have proven very effective. Biden and Democrats have tried to stop Texas Governor Greg Abbott from relocating migrants to blue leaning “sanctuary cities” (they’ve been given a taste of their own medicine and they don’t like it). Biden has ordered border patrol agents to “process” illegal immigrants for asylum status, instead of using their energies to send them packing back across the border. And, Biden has ordered those same agents to open border fences against the wishes of state governments so that migrants can easily pass through.
Now, it appears the White House is taking things a step further, ordering border patrol to cut barbed wire fences put in place by Texas DPS as the only effective means for preventing mass migrations. They are actively welcoming in large groups of illegals and opening a path for them.
There has been a clear dereliction of duty when it comes to Biden and his actions on the border. It is also obvious that his relocation of more border agents and national guard to the region is meant to keep migrants moving into the US while preventing state governments from establishing any form of protection. What happens next is predictable – A massive surge in third world population, even beyond what the US has witnessed so far, followed by rising crime, rising economic instability, rising poverty and a rising homeless population.
Unless state governments and the public step in, the crisis will only expand.
END
THE KING REPORT
The King Report September 25, 2023 Issue 7082
Independent View of the News
BBG: Treasury 10-year yields topped 4.5% for the first time since 2007, as a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance adds to concerns that the bonds face a toxic mix of large US fiscal deficits and persistent inflation… Surging oil prices and a massive fiscal deficit also have traders bracing for further selloffs after this week’s rout sent yields on every benchmark Treasury maturity to the highest levels in more than a decade… The US 10-year yield rose about one basis point to 4.5064% on Friday in Asia trading, before moving back down to 4.49%…The yield on 30-year debt climbed as much as one basis point Friday to 4.59%, adding to the 13 basis-point jump on Thursday that took it to the highest since 2011… https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/another-yield-high-us-10-015251711.html
Even the financial media is starting to ‘get it’ as to what is infuriating Mr. Bond?
Fed’s Balance Sheet Assets Shrink amid FDIC Loan Repayment – BBG Treasury’s daily cash flow data for Sept. 15 indicated the Federal Financing Bank advanced $49.4 billion to the FDIC last week and the latest central bank data confirmed that the organization had used the cash to pay down some of its Fed borrowing… Nasdaq vs. Cumulative Nasdaq Advances – Declines – “Houston, we have a problem!”
ESZs traded between modest losses and gains during early Nikkei trading. They then moved lower after 19:48 ET. After hitting a daily low of 4366.00 at 10:30 ET, ESZ rallied to 4384.25 at 3:16 ET. The European dump knocked ESZs to 4373.50 at 4:05 ET. ESZs then rallied to 4388.50 at 8:35 ET.
ESZs declined to 4374.25 at 9:52 ET. The usual suspects then poured into stuff for the Friday Rally. ESZs hit a daily high of 4399.00 at 11:40 ET. With the markup for the European close over, ESZs sank.
ESZs fell to 4384.25 at 12:05 ET. The Noon Balloon took ESZs to 4394.50 at 12:40 ET. After a slow rollover, ESZs tumbled to 4369.75 at 13:52 ET. While ESZs and stocks sank, USZs rallied sharply.
USZs hit a low of 115 23/32 at 23:25 ET. They rallied to 116 12/32 at 3:20 ET. After a modest retreat, USZs traded sideways until they commenced a robust rally at 9:52 ET. USZs hit 117 3/23 near 13:30 ET.
After a modest bounce from 13:43 ET to 13:58 ET, ESZs and stocks sank to new daily lows. After hitting 4362.75 two minutes after the 14:15 ET VIX Fix, ESZs rebounded 9 handles. After testing the lows, ESZs and stocks staged the last-hour rally, right on schedule. A blatant manipulation pushed ESZs to 4390.00 at 15:24 ET. Alas, there were few suckers in the market. So, ESZs plunged to a new daily low of 4357.25 at 15:52 ET. Another manipulation pushed ESZs 9 handles higher by the close.
@spectatorindex: US government budget deficit for fiscal year 2023 has passed $1.5 trillion
McDonald’s raises fees (5% from 4%) for franchisees in first price hike in 30 yearshttps://trib.al/XjIU6Jf
Positive aspects of previous session. Bonds had a robust rebound Stocks rallied early and late
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks tumbled in the early afternoon and during the final 36 minutes of NYSE trading
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What hidden damage are debt instruments exacting on financial institutions?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4331.31 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4357.40; 4316.49
Taiwan raises concerns about situation ‘getting out of hand’ with China drillshttps://t.co/ZjaV9KnPF4
CDC refuses to release information on post-vaccination heart inflammationhttps://t.co/VvY9RfL506
New-Found Emails Prove Biden White House Hid COVID Vaccine Harms from the Public In May 2021, particularly around May 24-25, high-ranking officials from the White House, CDC, NIH, and others were “freaking out,” shared Dr Wolf. What were they panicking about? Myocarditis and TTS [Thrombotic Thrombocytopenia Syndrome]. Or, in simpler terms, conditions involving heart damage, blood clots, and low platelet counts (bleeding risk). So “they crafted a media response,” reported Dr. Wolf. “And the media response doesn’t tell the truth.”… “Go back to May, June, July, August, all of 2021. Dr. Fauci lied and lied and lied subsequent to this crisis meeting, these crisis communications, this slide deck that we can’t see. And Dr. Fauci said, ‘Safe and effective. Safe and effective.’ Dr. Rochelle Walensky said, ‘Safe and effective. Safe and effective.’ They rolled out [a public announcement regarding] myocarditis, and remember what they said, ‘extremely rare,’ ‘mild,’ ‘resolves,’ ‘extremely rare,’ ‘mild,’ ‘resolves.’ They knew that they were lying. And they said nothing about the clotting issue from what I recall.”… “It [adverse events] had been brought to them in February by Israel, that there was heart damage. It was brought to them again in April that there was heart damage and blood clots. Now, it’s May [2021], four months after they first knew about the huge amounts of myocarditis and blood clots. And in May, they get together at the behest of the White House, to create a media response that you experience, all of 2021, all of 2022, to get you to keep injecting this [COVID shot] into your body and injecting it into the bodies of your loved ones. They knew that they were lying, and they knew that they were hurting people with blood clots, platelet problems, and heart damage. And that’s what they did. And that’s what happened.”… https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/09/bombshell-new-found-emails-prove-biden-white-house/
@ChuckCallesto: Mayo Clinic QUIETLY ADMITS on its website that hydroxychloroquine can be used to treat COVID 19... “Hydroxychloroquine is used to treat malaria.” “It is also used to prevent malaria infection in areas or regions where it is known that other medicines… https://t.co/NrGOQoSJvx
DJT trade advisor @RealPNavarro: At the White House, I had a million tablets of hydroxy that could have saved thousands of lives but @cnn crusaded against it to beat @realDonaldTrump . Negligent homicide at a minimum. @fda was also implicated in hydroxy suppression.
@DavidSacks: One of the craziest revelations of the Ukraine War is that the US can’t produce as much ammunition as Russia, even though the US spends over $800B/year on defense, which is 10X Russia. American taxpayers must be getting royally ripped off by the military-industrial complex. According to NYT, Russia makes artillery shells at 1/10th the cost of the US. If Russia is supposedly mired in corruption, how inefficient and corrupt must our MIC be, with its revolving doors and lobbying-based procurement process? https://t.co/DGeD6ETUQR
Macron wants fuel industry to sell at cost price “The Prime Minister will bring together all the players in the sector this week and we will ask them to sell at cost price, that is to say that no one makes a margin,” Macron said in an interview with France’s TF1 and France 2 television stations… https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/macron-wants-fuel-industry-sell-cost-price-2023-09-24/
Today – The two equity rebound rallies on Friday failed miserably. Nevertheless, the usual suspects will play for the standard Monday rally. The markets should be thin due to Yom Kippur. Ergo, a few determined entities can more easily manipulate stuff. ESZs are +1.50 and USZs are -9/32 at 20:30 ET.
Expected econ data: Aug Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.12 prior; Sept Dallas Fed Mfg -15.7
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4477; 100-day MA: 4377; 150-day MA: 4263; 200-day MA: 4191 DJIA 50-day MA: 34,850; 100-day MA: 35,268; 150-day MA: 33,869; 200-day MA: 33,808 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3814.46 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4586.76 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4446.10 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4370.71 triggers a buy signal
#3 House GOP leader @EliseStefanik: The latest ABC/Washington Post Poll has Trump beating Biden by 10% (52 to 42) and they are desperately scrambling trying to call it an “outlier.” It’s not an outlier. The elitist Left and their stenographers in the mainstream media should talk to more voters across America.… https://t.co/sH13O3M82C
@RNCResearch: ABC POLL: “People aren’t buying [Bidenomics].” “74% of the country — that’s about three-quarters of Americans — say the economy is either not so good or downright poor.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1705960563682038035
@RNCResearch: NBC POLL: “56% — that’s the highest disapproval rating for President Biden since he took office.” 72% of Americans say they are dissatisfied with the Biden economy. https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1705944960875307316
As we noted a few weeks ago, some idiotic Team Obama functionary commanded The Big Guy to brag about Bidenomics and run hard on it! PS – Things will worsen for The Big Guy as impeachment unfolds. @charliekirk11: According to ABC/WaPo, Trump is beating Biden by 15 percent among the youngest voters, 18- to 35-year-olds. Amazing
@RNCResearch: NBC POLL: Biden’s “approval among Black voters is down 17 points since the first year of his presidency” — and he’s also “down by double digits among Latinos, voters without a college degree, and independents.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1705947124637082040 Just 31% of Americans have a favorable view of Kamala Harris — even lower than Biden. (Dem Rep) Jim Clyburn says it’s because she is a “woman of color and first woman to be vice president,” but insists “she has the capacity and capability to be president.” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1705952256992911762
WaPo: Biden campaign is off and running against Trump — out of public view Top supporters of the president are urging the party to move on from doubts over Biden’s age With the first filing deadlines for president in mid-October, there is no evidence of a rival candidate with a clear path to challenging Biden… One prominent Democrat said he has been spending five hours a day calming the nerves of Democratic donors. “I know he is old but he has got good people around him,” the person has been repeating over and over. “Get over it.”… https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/09/23/biden-campaign-out-of-view/
How ridiculous and hypocritical is The Big Guy for trumpeting gun control while Hunter is being prosecuted for violating gun control laws?
@atensnut: Joe’s Confused expression with chants of “F*** Joe Biden”.https://t.co/mjFEGlcFEh
President Biden refers to rapper LL Cool J as ‘boy’ while speaking to Congressional Black Caucushttps://t.co/KHWBPqd8jz
Merrick Garland’s Hunter Biden lies blown up by IRS whistleblowershttps://t.co/ekY7lx0De3 US Attorney General Merrick Garland swears (literally: in sworn testimony) that US Attorney David Weiss was in fact the top dog when it came to charging ne’er do well First Son Hunter Biden — yet senior feds keep blowing up his claims: Two more IRS professionals have now contradicted him…
@GriffJenkins: CBP sources confirm to FOX News that there are ** three confirmed cases of Tuberculosis ** among migrants in the El Paso sector… further complicating the already daunting task of managing an overwhelming number arriving daily @FoxNews
Border encounters surge to nearly 233,000 in August The August numbers mark a 27% uptick from July’s 183,503 total encounters. President Joe Biden enjoys an average 33.6% approval rating on immigration, according to RealClearPolitics. A further 62.8% disapprove of his performance on the issue. https://justthenews.com/government/security/border-encounters-surge-nearly-233000-august
Elon Musk accuses media of ignoring the border crisis because they were ‘instructed not to cover it’ Musk responded to Melugin’s post by writing, “This gets no coverage because the media NPCs are instructed not to cover it.” NPC stands for “non-player characters,” meaning scripted characters in video games that are programmed with specific behavior rather than directly controlled by a human being. The term is used online for someone who doesn’t think for themselves… https://t.co/LMQJXxEIAB
Mexico’s fifth largest employer (Cartels) is helping kill Americans. Some Republicans are ready to declare literal warhttps://t.co/6bOfxZJYV5
@BehizyTweets: Recently obtained invoices show a suspicious amount of money is being paid to employees at migrant facilities in Chicago. Invoices show some employees are making almost $200 per hour. A facility manager racked in $14,000 in just one week and a nurse mode over $20,000 in a week. The City of Chicago is still withholding numerous documents showing where the “hundreds of millions of dollars” are being spent. https://twitter.com/BehizyTweets/status/1705367240470892906
@John_Rossomando: Chicago is where the Communist Party USA was founded in 1919.
@SonofHas: From the Menendez indictment: “Menendez provided sensitive U.S. Government information and took other steps that secretly aided the Government of Egypt.“ https://twitter.com/SonofHas/status/1705214517993693379
@HouseGOP: When an aide to Senator Robert Menendez requested that then VP-Biden host the U.S.-Spain Council’s 2010 annual meeting at his official Naval Observatory residence in Washington DC, he contacted Hunter Biden’s business partner rather than Joe’s White House office. https://twitter.com/HouseGOP/status/1705257824169664577
@spectatorindex: US Senator Menendez has temporarily stepped down as Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee after corruption indictment.
@BNONews: U.S. Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) says he won’t resign after indictment: “I am not going anywhere”
Renowned attorney @pnjaban: Menendez has been a corrupt degenerate representing NJ for years while being credibly accused of human trafficking of girls in Nicaragua, flying them on private planes like Epstein, bribery charges dating back to at least 2015. Why the indictment now?
Turley: Robert Menendez broke the ‘Goldilocks rule’ of corruption As Senate Foreign Relations chairman, Menendez is one of the most powerful Democratic members of Congress, and someone who has long been a kingmaker in the party. He has also long been accused of open and insatiable corruption. What made Menendez a standout in Washington was not his corruptinclinations, but his utter audacity in following them… Menendez himself would later go on trial in 2017 in a major bribery and fraud case involving luxury gifts allegedly exchanged for official favors. Most of us expected the worst when, during jury deliberations, one juror asked the court, “What is a senator?” Menendez dodged the bullet. The jury hung and the Justice Department dropped all charges.. If these allegations against Menendez are proven, then he violated Washington’s Goldilocks rule. It would mean that Menendez pursued gifts with a reckless abandon, endangering others whose corruption was more circumspect… There was no labyrinth of shell companies and accounts — just crude old-school corruption, with cash stuffed in clothing and gold bars squirreled away for a rainy day… https://thehill.com/opinion/criminal-justice/4218489-robert-menendez-broke-the-goldilocks-rule-of-corruption/
@townhallcom: Education Secretary Cardona says that he doesn’t have “too much respect” for parents who have been “misbehaving” at school board meetings. They’re “acting like they know what’s right for kids!”https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1705208964600721581 GOP Sen Hawley Spokeswoman @abigailmarone: Parents usually do know what’s best for their kids. And it’s not the woke agenda that you’re forcing on them.
West Point Sued after Director of Admissions Brags about What Happens to White Applicants https://t.co/5husHAiWfp
Trump refused to wear COVID mask because it smudged his bronzer, former aide claimshttps://trib.al/gLgpFBT
California’s ban on gun magazines struck down in federal court for the second timehttps://t.co/dhgH2nOOro
Dallas mayor leaves Democratic Party, switches to GOP: ‘American cities need Republicans’ Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson was elected in 2019 and has been a vocal supporter of law enforcement “In other words, American cities need Republicans — and Republicans need American cities,” he continued. “When my political hero Theodore Roosevelt was born, only 20% of Americans lived in urban areas. By the time he was elected president, that share had doubled to 40%. Today, it stands at 80%. As America’s cities go, so goes America.”…“Mayor Johnson has led from the front and it showed when he was re-elected without one single challenger — that’s unheard of in a major U.S. city.”… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dallas-mayor-leaves-democratic-party-switches-to-gop-american-cities-need-republicans
Thousands of troops live in ‘substandard’ barracks, exposed to sewage, toxic water, diseases: GAO Should we ask servicemen and women to risk their lives on the battlefield while they may be risk simply living in U.S. barracks? The GAO report comes as the military is already facing concerns about morale, recruitment and “woke” ideology amid serious security threats… (But billions for Ukraine & Illegals!) https://justthenews.com/accountability/whistleblowers/thousands-troops-live-substandard-barracks-including-exposed-sewage
@Sprinter99800: The US government has banned Tucker Carlson from interviewing Vladimir Putin. “You know, I tried to interview Putin, and the American government stopped me. What, we can’t hear Putin’s voice?! Why? Nobody voted on this issue,” Carlson said in an interview with the Swiss magazine…https://t.co/CWhuA3wUSI
Zelenskyy, Trudeau Honor Actual 3rd Reich Nazi with Standing Ovation Yaroslav Hunka, 98, fought in a Third Reich military formation accused of war crimes. On Friday, he was honored during a session of Canadian parliament in which Zelenskyy addressed the lawmakers to thank them for their support since Russia invaded Ukraine, saying that Canada has always been on “the bright side of history.” Hunka stood for standing ovation and saluted, according to Canadian television. https://www.zerohedg The King Report September 26, 2023 Issue 7083Independent View of the NewsChina Developers Drop Most in 9 Months on Evergrande Woes A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of developer shares fell 7.1% Monday… Market sentiment has taken a turn for the worse following a recent stream of negative news. Last week, China’s securities regulator said it launched an inquiry into Ping An Real Estate Co. over an undisclosed overdue loan payment. China Oceanwide Holdings Ltd. on Monday disclosed it is facing liquidation after a Bermuda court issued a winding-up order. Worries are also growing that Country Garden Holdings Co. may suffer an imminent default… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-developers-slump-most-since-025713139.html
Yesterday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, appearing on CNBC, said: “It feels like rates will have to stay higher for longer than markets had expected.” “The risk of inflation staying higher is still the bigger risk.”
Bonds got hammered on Monday; USZs sank as much as 2 7/32. The 10-year hit 4.546%; the 30-year climbed to 4.669%. USZs waffled between small losses and gains during early Nikkei trading. At 19:56 ET, USZs broke down. An intractable drop took USZs to 115 1/32 at 10:30 ET. After a rebound to 115 15/32 at 11:19 ET, USZs retreated and bottom bumped until they broke down to 114 25/32 at 14:00 ET.
ESZs traded moderately higher during Nikkei trading, with most of the rally appearing during the final two hours of trading. After hitting a daily high of 4379.50 at 3:34 ET, the dump into early European buyers drove ESZs down to 4348.00 at 4:44 ET. After a rebound to 4362.50 at 6:22 ET, ESZs stair-steeped lower and made a new daily low of 4338.25 at 9:10 ET. Pump & Dump buying conflated with Monday Rally buying; ESZs jumped to 4364.00 near 10:00 ET. The US dump pushed ESZs down to 4347.75 at 11:02 ET. The usual manipulation for the European close pushed ESZs to 4371.00.
After the 11:30 ET European close, ESZs plodded to 4376.00 at 12:26 ET. ESZs then traded sideways, in a 13-handle range until they broke lower at 15:00 ET. After hitting 4356.50 at 15:07 ET, the late manipulation appeared. ESZs hit 4381.50 at the NYSE close.
The DJTA rallied sharply due to FedEx (+2.05%) and Old Dominion Freight Lines (+1.96%). Argus hikes it price target for FedEx to 295 from 260 – and lemmings bought land transports on the tout.
Rite Aid Plans to Close Hundreds of Locations (As part of Chapter 11 plan) – WSJ The Philadelphia-based company faces more than $3.3 billion in debt over a thousand federal lawsuits alleging it oversupplied opioids… A number of its stores are stuck in uneconomical long-term leases… making bankruptcy an effective tool to shed them… (Don’t forget about uncontrollable theft!)
Positive aspects of previous session. The DJTA rallied sharply on a FedEx tout; Fangs rallied moderately Gasoline and oil declined
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds got hammered, again
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How large are the unrealized debt instrument losses at major financial institutions?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4326.22 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4338.51; 4302.70
@60Minutes: 60 Minutes discovered the U.S. is financing more than weapons in Ukraine. The government is buying seeds/fertilizer for farmers, paying the salaries of 57,000 first responders and subsidizing small businesses. https://cbsn.ws/466Ketc
China’s Economic Slowdown Was Inevitable The Illusory Success of State Capitalism By Yasheng Huang Many have sought to use China as an advertisement for statism, but the country’s economic success actually had little to do with it. Although Confucianism and statism are perennial features of the Chinese system, the economy’s superlative growth only began in 1978, after the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping launched a program of economic reforms… Rather than China’s growth being a testimony to the expanding power of the state relative to the market, the opposite is true. This can be seen through a study of the first phase of significant Chinese growth in the 1980s. It was powered by small-scale rural entrepreneurship. Tens of millions of entrepreneurs from humble backgrounds built factories that flooded China with consumer durables, construction materials, food, and labor-intensive goods. This miracle owed nothing to the wisdom of the Chinese Communist Party, as Deng acknowledged in 1987… Beijing moved away from Maoist totalitarianism under Deng, thereby instilling a sense of security and confidence among Chinese entrepreneurs. Under Xi, this has changed. Chinese capitalists have once again been marginalized, harassed, sidelined, and arrested… China is moving backward, toward the Cultural Revolution, and away from Deng’s reforms, a development not lost on Chinese entrepreneurs. They have become reluctant to invest and are trying to move their capital abroad. Far from reaping a reward, Beijing is paying a price for its lack of the rule of law… Beijing has betrayed and rejected its own success formula, and the economy is paying the price… https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-economic-slowdown-was-inevitable
Dimon Warns World May Not Be Prepared for Fed at 7% – BBG 20:09 ET “Worst case is 7% (Fed Funds) with stagflation.”
Today – Bond traders will play for a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside. As expected, action on Monday was lame due to Yom Kippur. It will be interesting and telling to see what happens with bonds today. Debt instruments are extremely oversold; but it is never prudent to try to catch a falling knife. More importantly, after decades of the Fed suppressing interest rates and enabling massive debt accumulation, a return to normal monetary policy will devastate numerous large debt holders.
We are still in the early stages of debt woes discovery. The Bear Stearns MBS-related hedge funds blew up in June 2007. The 2008 Financial Crisis didn’t appear in earnest until ~15 months later.
An old Wall Street adage warns that a tipping point takes a lot longer to appear than most expect; but its damage unfolds more swiftly than expected. ESZs are -7.00 and USZs are -4/32 at 20:30 ET on Dimon.
Equity traders might have appropriated the usual Tuesday turnaround with the late manipulation on Monday. Nevertheless, the usual suspects will play for a rally. The S&P 500 Index low on Monday was 4302.70. A breach of 4300 could unleash momentum selling and a test of the June triple lows near 4261.
Expected econ data: July FHFA House Price Index 0.4% m/m; July S&P CoreLogic 20-city house prices 0.7% h/h & -0.04% y/y; Aug New Home Sales 698k; Sept Conference Board Consumer Confidence 105.5; Sept Richmond Fed Mfg. Index -7; Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman 13:30 ET
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4474; 100-day MA: 4379; 150-day MA: 4265; 200-day MA: 4193 DJIA 50-day MA: 34,840; 100-day MA: 35,271; 150-day MA: 33,870; 200-day MA: 33,810 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3814.46 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4586.76 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4431.22 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4348.19 triggers a buy signal
Smartmatic Voting Machine Company Implicated in $4 Million ‘Slush Fund’ Bribery Scheme Using ‘Fake Contracts’ – Voting machine company Smartmatic, which is suing Fox News and former President Donald Trump’s top allies over their claims that the company’s machines facilitated cheating in the 2020 US election, has been accused as uncharged co-conspirators in a bribery scheme in the Philippines… https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/smartmatic-voting-machine-company-implicated-4-million-slush-fund-bribery-scheme-using
@RNCResearch: BIDEN: “We’re working with Congress to invest $40 billion in our Pacific Island’s Infrastructure Initiative. We call it the P G, P I— anyway, doesn’t matter what we call it, but that’s what it is.”https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1706324028045017450
‘Missing witness’ in Biden corruption probe offers dirt on Hunter FBI ‘mole’ who tipped him off Gal Luft, the fugitive “missing witness” of the Biden corruption investigation, has offered new evidence to the House impeachment inquiry about an FBI mole who tipped off Hunter Biden that his Chinese partners had been named in four sealed indictments in 2017 by Manhattan federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York… Luft claims that the tipoff to Chinese executives of CEFC came on the same day that the first son wrote a WhatsApp message shaking down another CEFC employee for millions of dollars over a “highly confidential and time sensitive” matter while claiming his father was in the room with him… Luft, who also had been earning money through a partnership with CEFC, flew to Hong Kong to see Ho on Aug. 14, 2017, two weeks after his sudden departure. Ho told him about the SDNY indictments, and that Hunter had a mole inside the FBI who had tipped him off. The Chinese nickname for the mole was “One-Eye.”…https://nypost.com/2023/09/25/offering-dirt-on-hunter-bidens-fbi-mole/
FBI agent says prosecutors thwarted Hunter Biden charges, corroborating IRS whistleblowers Prosecutor efforts slowing probe also captured in emails, testimony transcript shows Specifically, she confirmed agents were concerned that the DOJ tried to use the 2022 midterm elections to delay action in the Hunter Biden case even though his father was not up for election last year. https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/fbi-supervisor-corroborates-irs-whistleblower-claims-hunter-biden
@_StephanieMyers: Sen. Bob Menendez says he’s withdrawn thousands of dollars in cash from his personal savings account, which he’s “kept for emergencies” and because of history of confiscation in Cuba. n.b.: The FBI says they found over $480k in cash when they raided his home. https://twitter.com/_StephanieMyers/status/1706380921061179676
@TheBabylonBee: Biden Condemns Menendez for Taking Bribes in Gold Rather Than Fungible Assets Laundered by 20 Different Shell Companies – “Gold? That’s a real rookie move, Jack!” said Biden to reporters. “If you’re gonna get rich off a bribe, you gotta have money wired to several different shell companies in Ukraine which will then launder the money and wire it to your son in exchange for a painting, who will then buy some expensive items, and give you your cut. Come on, man! This ain’t rocket surgery! Don’t they launder money in Mexico or wherever this Menendez guy is from?”… https://babylonbee.com/news/biden-condemns-menendez-for-taking-bribes-in-gold-rather-than-fungible-assets-laundered-by-20-different-shell-companies
In a possible warning to Team Obama-Biden, indicted Dem Senator Menendez hired Hunter’s attorney.
@emeriticus: Trump once fell for a prank call where he believed he was speaking with Sen. Bob Menendez. He congratulated who he believed was the New Jersey Democrat for dodging corruption charges in 2018 after Trump’s DOJ declined to retry Menendez after a mistrial. Trump later commuted the sentence of Menendez’s major donor and fellow Democrat, Salomon Melgen, who was also a co-defendant with Menendez in the corruption case. These embarrassing facts might explain why Trump is downplaying the Justice Department’s charges against Menendez, and why his team is suggesting Menendez is the victim of a conspiracy.https://www.readcontra.com/p/the-menendez-fiasco
Victor Davis Hanson @VDHanson: The Obama and the Biden administrations finally seemed to have achieved their aims, in what the Obamas once boasted would be the “fundamental transformation” of America into something unrecognizable by its Founders. But what they gave us was nihilism—the destruction of norms, laws, and customs. There is no border, no criminal justice system, no real president any more… Woke is a religion, not an empirically based revolution. It requires blind faith and ideological zealotry that ignores data, smears apostates as blasphemers, and is fueled by a climate of fear as it uses public shaming, cancel culture, doxing, shadow banning, ostracism, and career destruction to bulldoze ahead… Partly woke continues, then, because its privileged creators still cling to the belief, “What I create for others, certainly will not apply to me and mine.” And when it does, as it is beginning to now, they stay long in denial and continue their woke advocacy because they still hope their progressive piety and fides will someday earn them heaven on earth. https://victorhanson.com/is-the-left-happy-that-they-got-their-wish/
The earmarks Adam Schiff delivered for donors – The Democratic congressman for years secured earmarks for defense companies while taking campaign donations from top corporate brass and Washington lobbyists…Schiff has offered an incomplete and potentially misleading account of his record on earmarks…Schiff’s moves prompted POLITICO to examine his own record of for-profit earmarks. In addition to the PMA Group dollars he raised, Schiff also received donations from other companies for which he secured earmarks. In fiscal year 2008, Schiff guided nearly a third of his earmarks to for-profit companies that were run by campaign donors… https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/25/adam-schiff-earmarks-00117716
Leader of Canada’s House of Commons apologizes for honoring man who fought for Nazishttps://trib.al/TkD7RuU
The data is out on the CV19 bioweapon vax, and it is crystal clear it did not help a single person. In fact, the CV19 vax is causing massive death and disability, and it will continue for years to come. Catherine Austin Fitts (CAF), Publisher of The Solari Report, financial expert and former Assistant Secretary of Housing (Bush 41 Admin.), says, “I said literally on the first day way before they had a vaccine, I said don’t worry about Covid, worry about the injection. I said that immediately because I could see it coming. The goal of this thing was to get people injected. The other goal was to steal a huge amount of assets, which they did quite successfully. The reality is you can’t navigate this unless you can face what it is. It’s not a mistake, and it’s not betrayal. Somebody is trying to kill you, and your job is to figure out how to make sure they don’t. You have to reorganize how you manage your time and how you manage your money where you have disaster capitalists coming at you and can make money from killing you.”
The latest plan by these evil demons to separate you from your life and cash is something CAF calls “Pharma Food.” CAF and company has done a deep dive on corporations putting “biotech on your plate.” Spoiler alert — this has nothing to do with the benevolent job of feeding the masses, it’s about using food to control the masses. CAF explains, “I am always telling people to invest in their local fresh food not because you want to make money, you do it because you don’t want to eat insects. You don’t want to eat lab grown meat. “Pharma Food” is one of the most frightening reports we have ever written. We don’t like to scare people, but you need to see how much money is going into creating the capacity to feed you things in a million years you would not want to eat. This is serious. They are trying to build complete control of the food system. This includes delivering you food out of a manufacturing plant and not out of a farm.”
CAF goes on to say “If we can sustain ourselves with barter ,the financial transaction control won’t work. That is why food is so critical. You have to control food because if you control food, you can get financial transaction control. . . . If you look at the venture capital investments, it is absolutely illogical for them to spend this kind of money for a consumer product nobody wants.” CAF says what could happen is the demonic powers might mandate you eat their factory made “Pharma Food.” This is why CAF is pushing everybody to get serious about growing and procuring real food without corporations and Big Pharma getting between you and your table.
CAF also talks about the Fed, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), the Fed meeting in Jackson Hole, the razor accurate destruction in Maui and how to fight back and stay alive in a world where people are dreaming up ways to kill you for cash.
There is much more in the 1-hour and 3-minute interview.
There is much free information on Solari.com. You can search for all the free information CAF talked about by using the search box in the upper right-hand corner on the homepage of Solari.com.
AM2013.95
Seymour Hersh: “Ukraine virtually canceled the offensive after weeks of high casualties.”
End Times Meditations
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