SEPT 29/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $11.15 TO $1851.35//SILVER CLOSED DOWN $ 0.28 TO $22.20 AS OPTIONS EXPIRED IN LONDON AND OTC TRADING//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $3.10 TO $906,10 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $16.15 TO $1271.65//IMPORTANT COMMENTARY TODAY FROM ALASDAIR MACLEOD AND HIS IMPORTANT INTERVIEW WITH ANDREW MAGUIRE: LIVE FROM THE VAUT 142//CHINA RELAXES ITS IMPORT RESTRICTION ON GOLD AND ITS PRICE FALLS TO INTERNATIONAL LEVELS//INFLATION IN EUROPE FALLS TO TWO YR LOW BUT THIS IS BEFORE THE BIG RISE IN CRUDE OIL//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE UPDATES/DR PAUL ALEXANDER// /SLAYNEWS//EVOL NEWS/NEWS ADDICTS//NO SIGN OF SETTLEMENT WITH UAW//LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IN THE USA//USA SAVING RATES PLUMMET//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 169 190 H BMO CAPITAL 18 323 C HSBC 1280 137 357 C WEDBUSH 337 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 363 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 31 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 29 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 27 491 657 H MORGAN STANLEY 185 661 C JP MORGAN 1778 341 661 H JP MORGAN 533 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1 690 C ABN AMRO 22 700 C UBS 819 726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 5 737 C ADVANTAGE 39 905 C ADM 64 5
TOTAL: 3,337 3,337
JPMorgan stopped 341/3337 contracts.
FOR OCT.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2023. CONTRACT: 3337 NOTICES FOR 333,700 OZ or 10.378 TONNES
total notices so far: 3337 contracts for 333,700 oz (10.378 tonnes)
FOR OCT:
SILVER NOTICES:124 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 620,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 124 for 620,000 oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $11.15
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//
INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.64 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS AT THE SLV// SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 441.883 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY SMALL SIZED 257CONTRACTS TO 127,232 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR $0.08 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A STRONG SIZED 843 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 843 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.08). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 686 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 250 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.530 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) /HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 843CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL 470 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 18 days, total 13,766 contracts: OR 68.830 MILLION OZ (764 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 68.830 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 68.830 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 257 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.08 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 250 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS./ WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 1.532 MILLION OZ /// WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 507 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 843 CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (843) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 124 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 620,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3373 CONTRACTS TO 426,941 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED: –529 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 3373 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $13.45 LOSS IN PRICE//THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 16.562 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE + /A FAIR (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 3407 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR$13.45 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 3893 OI CONTRACTS (12.108 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 7266CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 426.941
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3893 CONTRACTS WITH3373 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 7266 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3893CONTRACTS OR 12.108 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG 3409 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (7266 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (3373) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3893 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR NORMAL FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 16.562 TONNES /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION BUT CONSIDERABLE TAS LIQUIDATION DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 3409 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
SEPT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 76,725 CONTRACTS OR 7,672,500 OZ OR 238.64 TONNES IN 18 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4085 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 18 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 238.64 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 238.64/3550 x 100% TONNES 6.70% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 238.64 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 257 CONTRACTS OI TO 127,232 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A FAIR 250 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 250and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 250 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 257 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 250 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 507 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 2.535 MILLION OZ
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.16 PTS OR 0.10% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 436.63 PTS OR 2.51%/ /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 14.90 PTS OR 0.05% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.38 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.3015 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.2938 /Oil DOWN TO 92.78 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 93.98 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3373CONTRACTS TO 426,941 WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $13.45 ON THURSDAY.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 7266 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 7266 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 7266 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED TOTAL OF 3893 CONTRACTS IN THAT 7266LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 3373 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $13.45//THURSDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS A STRONG 3409 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: OCT (16.562) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT.16.562 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $13.45) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS STRANGELY WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF 3893 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF THURSDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 12.108 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (16.562 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $13.45.
WE HAD – REMOVED 529 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3893 CONTRACTS OR 389,300 OZ OR 12.108 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3337 notices 333,700 OZ 10.379 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: 0 oz
customer deposits: 0
total customer deposits: 0 oz
we had 2 customer withdrawal
i) Manfra 8,391.342 oz
ii) Brinks: 35,569.580 oz
total withdrawals 43,960.902 oz
Adjustments;
1) customer to dealer JPMorgan 7716.24 oz
ii) Manfra: dealer to customer 349,835.031 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.
For the front month of OCTOBER we have an oi of 5325 contracts having LOST 2799 contracts. Thus by definition, the initial amount of gold standing for delivery for Oct is as follows:
5325 notices x 100 oz per notice = 333,700 OZ OR 16.562 tonnes
NOV GAINED 159 CONTRACTS to stand at 920
December LOST 2496 contracts down to 370,465 contracts.
We had 3337 contracts filed for today representing 333,700 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 1778 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 333,700 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 341 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3337 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (5325 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 3337 x 100 oz per contract equals 532,500 OZ OR 16.562 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this non active month of SEPT.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT.contract month: No of notices filed so far (3337) x 100 oz + (5325) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (13337) x 100 oz) which equals 532,500 oz standing OR 16.562 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 16.562 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE BUT GENERALLY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH. (OCT)
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 20,912,469.453 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,422,876.462 (324.195 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,689,592.991 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,413,157 OZ (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 261.68 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
SEPT 29
//2023// THE OCT 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
303,403.672 oz CNT Delaware JPMorgan
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
No of oz served today (contracts)
124 CONTRACT(S) (620,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
182 contracts (910,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
124 Contracts (620,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: 0
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 deposit customer account:
total customer deposit 0 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 136.236 million oz/270.342 million or 50.31%
Comex withdrawals 3
i) Out of CNT 6886.29 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 220,196.482 oz
iii) Out of jPMorgan: 76,320.920 oz
total: 303,403.672 oz
adjustments: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 37.043 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 270.342 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2023 OI: 306 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 108 CONTRACT(S).
THUS BY DEFINITION, THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER IS AS FOLLOWS:
306 NOTICES X 5000 OZ PER NOTICE = 1,530,000 OZ
NOVEMBER GAINED 148 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 469
DEC. LOST 153 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 112,893 .
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 124 for 620,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 111,269 //huge/raid
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 70,383 fair
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 124 x 5,000 oz = 620,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (306) and the number of notices served upon today 124 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the OCT/2023 contract month: 124 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT (306) – number of notices served upon today (124 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates to 1.530 million oz.
There are 37.043 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.40 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.83 TONNES
SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.60 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
SEPT 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 15/WITH GOLD UP $13.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.055 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.70 TONNES
SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.01 TONNES
SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.22 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.69 TONNES
SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.81 TONNES
SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES
SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES
AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD UP 17.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.6 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD UP $6.90 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES
AUGUST 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.04 TONNES
AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $0.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES
AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD UP $21.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.91 TONNES
AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $2.95 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.23 TONNES
AUGUST 21/WITH GOLD UP $7.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.60 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
AUGUST 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.15 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 887.50 TONNES
AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: /// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 894.42 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 873.64 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
SEPT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.066 MILLION OZ
SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.492 MILLION OZ
SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449,033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 19/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.1 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.651 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.332 MILLION OZ
SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.681 MILLION OZ
SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1,009 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 11/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.373 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ
SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.625 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.834 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.210 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OF SILVER INTO THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 445.044 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.281 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.861 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 25/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.751 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.145 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.651 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.896 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER UP 94 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 826,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.547 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 917,0000 OZ FROM THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.373 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 18/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.290 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 441.883 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
Jim Grant: Fed Policy Is A Ph.D. Standard Of Improvisation
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, and people are wondering, what will it do next? The messaging coming from the central bankers is that they will need to keep interest rates higher for longer. But is that possible given the economic conditions and all of the debt in the economy?
Investment and economics writer Jim Grant appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box to discuss the Fed’s inflation fight and its impact on the economy. He said we ask too much of the central bankers. After all, they are only human.
Grant opened the interview by taking exception to Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee’s assertion that the current federal funds rate is “restrictive.”
His own Financial Conditions Index, produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, shows, oddly enough, that financial conditions, as defined, are looser than average even after this short of zero to 60 in six seconds of rate increases.”
So yes, monetary policy is “tighter,” but it is not yet “tight.”
Grant has said we are likely entering into a generational bear market in bonds. He pointed out that interest rates are unique because they tend to follow generational cycles. That’s been true in the US since the Civil War.
I say we just ended in 2021 40 years, 4-0 years, of persistently declining rates, which ended, and something I think financial historians are going to puzzle over for many many years, which is negative nominal rates — bonds priced to yields less than nothing to the tune of like $15 or $16 trillion. … It seems to me every big move in financial markets, whether its bonds or anything else, tends to climax in some absurdity, some valuation excess with the stock puppet 1999 or negative nominal yields in 2020-2021.”
Looking back, we had 40 years of declining interest rates. Before that, we had 35 years of generally increasing rates that ended in 1981. Grant said it’s simply a matter of pattern recognition “to give it its intellectual most dignified term.”
This is nothing like a physical law, but this, as I say, has been the form for many, many years in bonds.”
The CNBC host seemed a bit befuddled by Grant’s analysis. After all, if the Fed is controlling rates, why would we see these long trends? If the economy is doing well, the central bankers can raise rates. If the economy suffers, they can lower them.
Grant said “they” don’t always control events.
He quoted former British Prime Minster Harold Macmillan who was asked, “What might go wrong.” He responded, “My boy, events! Events might go wrong.”
We have been used to, I think, imputing to the Fed immense powers of foresight and control. But oftentimes, the Fed, like so many of us, finds itself not in the vanguard of action or thought, but rather running behind to catch up. You know, the Fed can will all it likes to return the 2% world it has defined for itself, but if the past is prologue, the Fed will be evolving a new set of narratives to explain the new world. And I expect that to be coming at Jackson Hole any summer now.”
While it is difficult to see the future, Grant said we can at least observe the present and size up the odds the markets are laying on certain outcomes.
Grant called the Fed members “well-intentioned human beings,” with an emphasis on human beings. He said many scored well on the SAT and they probably would have rather worked at NASA doing physical science as opposed to the “pseudoscience” of economic forecasting.
As recently as the early months of 2022, with inflation percolating above 5%, they were still doing QE. So, we ask too much of them, or indeed, of any set of human beings.”
Would some kind of rule-based system be better?
Grant gave an enthusiastic, yes!
The rule would be that interest rates ought to be discovered in the market rather than imposed or suppressed. We have decided over the course of many years to conduct our monetary affairs by kind of a Ph.D. standard of improvisation. There are no rules, per se. The dollar is uncollateralized as it had been from the beginning of the country to 1971. So, to some extent, we are playing tennis without a net, and without baselines, and without sidelines. So, circumspection in public finance is out the window.”
Demonstrating just how out of whack things have become, Grant pointed out that in private sector terms, the Fed is broke.
So, what about all of the investors and businesspeople who have made bets based on perpetually low interest rates? Grant said he thinks the odds are against them.
Within this long cycle — this projected, imagined long cycle I foresee — there are all sorts of twists and turns. There were in the 70s, for example. Inflation didn’t go straight up. It was in three phases or slices. So, if past is prologue, what we’ll see is a time of long-trending higher rates with head-fakes that will get people convinced that 2% is right around the corner.”
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
A good interview of James Turk
(GATA/James Turk/Jon Little)
Turk describes the connection between liberty and gold as money
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-09-28 22:33Section: Daily Dispatches
10:53p Thursday, September 28, 2023
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Interviewed this week by Jon Little of the Silver Degen Club, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk reminds us that liberty disappears when government removes gold from the monetary system, confiscates it from the people, and refuses to let them have their own independent money.
That’s the theme of Turk’s most recent book, “Money and Liberty: In the Pursuit of Happiness and the Theory of Natural Money”:
As you may have noticed, GATA long has maintained that the frequently incongruous action of the gold price has something to do with government’s resolve to discourage people from having their own independent money, money that is potentially not under government’s direct control.
The interview with Turk is 36 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
END
China allows more imports of gold and that sends the premium down to 10 dollars.
(Bloomberg News)
China gold prices plunge the most since 2020, curbing record premium
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-09-28 20:47Section: Daily Dispatches
By Eddie Spence and Sybilla Gross Bloomberg News Thursday, September 28, 2023
Gold in China dropped the most in three years after Beijing permitted more imports, all but closing the gap with international prices that has persisted for weeks.
The precious metal fell 3.8% on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, with losses accelerating toward the end of the trading day. This follows a months-long rally in local prices, which created a record premium to gold outside the country.
Shanghai prices were about $10 an ounce above international prices at the close, according to calculations by Bloomberg.
This month premiums had risen to a record of over $120 an ounce. …
Alasdair Macleod: The end of the road for the dollar
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-09-28 12:14Section: Daily Dispatches
By Alasdair Macleod Head of Research, GoldMoney via Schiff Gold, White Plains, New York Thursday, September 28, 2023
With the Asian hegemons undoubtedly able to introduce gold standards, where does that leave the dollar?
This article describes just how precarious the fiat dollar’s position has become. For now the dollar appears to be buoyed up by rising bond yields. However, as they rise further, portfolio losses for foreign investors are likely to increase, leading to dollar liquidation.
It is not generally realized how many dollars and dollar securities are owned by foreigners, the bulk of them being held outside the U.S. banking system. And the quantity of foreign currency owned by Americans to absorb this selling is very small in comparison.
Higher interest rates and bond yields also threaten to destabilize the banking system, a problem equally faced by the Eurozone, the UK, and Japan. But how can the U.S. government protect itself from this danger?
The only answer is to admit to the end of the fiat era and put the dollar back onto a gold standard.
However, the U.S. government does not have the mandate to take the required actions and officially at least is still in denial over the need to stabilise the currency. The legal position referring to the constitution is briefly touched upon, because laws will have to be considered to secure the dollar’s future.
Unfortunately, the U.S. Treasury’s gold holdings are almost certainly compromised. Furthermore, since the Asian hegemons have accumulated substantial holdings of bullion in addition to their official reserves, there is bound to be a strong reluctance to hand economic power to Russia and China by endorsing a return to gold standards.
My conclusion is that the era of the fiat dollar-based global currency system is rapidly ending, and for America and the dollar there can be no Plan B. It will almost certainly lead to the end of the fiat dollar, and the end of the U.S. hegemony. …
In this week’s episode of Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by Alasdair Macleod to examine the East’s blossoming relationship with gold as they’re beating the markets by securing local currencies and commodities against its value.
The London whistleblower broaches gold’s vital role in a looming credit collapse, which the East seem to have foreseen with greater clarity than the West, before tackling the esoteric nuances behind CBDCs and decentralised currencies.
How does silver drop 4.5% in 75 minutes like it did today from 9:15-10:30 on Comex. Those that say paper silver is not silver must also agree that mining companies of physical all use paper silver as price discovery so paper is de facto silver until Comex and LBMA are broken. As of now all I hear is hopium.
Why the major mining company CEOs don’t do anything to stop the market caps of their businesses from being greatly undervalued due to the price manipulation, it’s because they are all in the exact same secret society. They have marching orders and it isn’t to protect shareholder value. Again, when you step back and view the mining world (major companies) through that lense, everything will make sense. The same is true for all major companies, their leaders are all part of the same secret society. The good news is that gold and silver will still explode violently higher and they will be very long for that stage of the bull market, including the mining stocks. I hope that helps but may not happen in our lifetime.
Kevin
END
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:ORANGE JUICE
END
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.3015
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2938
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.16 PTS OR 0.10%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 436.67 PTS OR 2.51%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 14.90 PTS OR 0.05 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 105.54 EURO RISES TO 1.0595 UP 33 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.751 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 149.22/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP// OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.8640***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 4.793*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.95…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.337
3j Gold at $1870.00 silver at: 23.10 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 82 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 97.63//
3m oil into the 92 dollar handle for WTI and 93 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 149.22// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.751% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9129 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9671 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.567 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.678 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.042 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.42…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 3 BASIS PTS AT 4.5100
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
USA EARLY MORNING REPORT
Futures, Global Stocks Rise As Yields, Dollar Drop Ahead Of Core PCE Print
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, SEP 29, 2023 – 08:18 AM
US equity futures and global stocks rose on the last trading day of the week, month and quarter and global bonds rebounded after dovish comments from Fed officials and signs that European inflation is finally slowing when EU consumer prices rose just 4.3%, down from 5.2% in August, and the lowest since Oct 2021. Ahead of today’s closely watched “Fed’s favorite inflation gauge”, the core PCE due out at 8:30am ET, S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.4% as longer-dated bond yields were 2-3bps lower while supportive inflation data in Europe drove European bond yields lower this morning. 30-year TSY yields are down 3bps at 4.68% but still on course for their largest quarterly gain since 2009. The US Dollar dropped and crude oil rebounded. Commodities are mostly higher led by base metals (Aluminum +1.8%; Copper +1.3%), with Brent back over $96 and approaching the 2023 high of $97. Today’s macro focus is on PCE, Personal Income/Spending, Chicago PMI, and U of Mich. survey data. For PCE, consensus sees the PCE deflator printing at 0.5% vs. 0.2% prior and Core PCE deflator rising 0.2%, unchanged from 0.2% prior.
In premarket trading, mega cap tech stocks were broadly higher; Nike rose 8% after the sportswear giant reported earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate and kept its outlook unchanged for the year. The report was a positive surprise, with the outlook “better than buyside fears,” said Morgan Stanley. OPKO Health rose 8% after its ModeX Therapeutics won a contract from the US to develop antibodies to battle viral infectious disease threats.
Wall Street closed higher on Thursday after comments from Fed rate-setters including Richmond Fed chief Thomas Barkin, who said the US would likely skirt a severe downturn. Meanwhile, his Chicago Fed counterpart Austan Goolsbee said policymakers were at risk of overshooting on interest rates. Adding to positive sentiment, the WSJ reported China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng and Foreign Minister Wang Yi are discussing possible visits to the US to prepare for a potential summit between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden.
Today’s stock rebound signals relief after a quarter that’s put 30-year borrowing costs on track for their steepest increase since 2009. Here are some of the superlatives we’ve seen this quarter:
US 2s10s inversion dropped to May’s lows
5y US yield highest since 2007
10y US yield highest since 2007
30y US yield highest since 2010
10y German yield highest since 2011
Japan 10y highest since 2013
Japan 20y highest since 2014
Japan 30y highest since 2013
Not surprisingly, amid soaring rates, the July-September quarter has been the worst for MSCI’s all-country index since September 2022, as surging oil prices fanned fears over inflation and economic growth.
“We have had a lot of smallish pieces of better news all coming together at the same time,” said Stuart Cole, head macro economist at brokerage Equity Capital, forgotten to add that we have also had a lot of pieces of bad news alongside, which however markets have generally ignored. While the Fed officials’ comments soothed fears of further US rate rises, sentiment received a further boost from Friday’s softer inflation prints, he said. “Taken in conjunction with the softer German numbers yesterday, that has raised hopes that the ECB is done with tightening,” said Cole.
Investors are now awaiting the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which economists expect will have slowed in August on an annualized basis to 3.9% from 4.2%.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 equity index rose more than 1%, as data showing euro-area inflation at a two-year low boosted expectations that the ECB’s hiking cycle was over and that rates in the EU could stay on hold if not drop. Rate-sensitive sectors, such as real estate and luxury led the gains, with the latter also boosted by a bullish strategy note from Bank of America. The data “increases our conviction that the ECB hiking cycle is done,” said Samuel Zief, head of global FX strategy at JPMorgan Private Bank. Here are the top European movers:
Luxury stocks including LVMH, Hermes and Richemont all rise at least 2.5% after Bank of America strategists raised their view on the luxury sector to overweight, saying recent underperformance now fully reflects an expected slowdown in global business activity.
Among other luxury names, Brunello Cucinelli shares rise as much as 8.7% after Goldman double-upgrades the Italian firm to buy from sell, saying it offers underappreciated defensive qualities.
Commerzbank shares gain as much as 12% after the German lender pre-announced planned capital returns that analysts say suggest significant upside to current consensus numbers.
Adidas, Puma, JD Sports shares rise after Nike reported a drop in its stockpile of inventory, a sign it’s making progress in moving out older merchandise for newer, more-profitable items.
Aston Martin shares surge as much as 13% after the carmaker said Executive Chairman Lawrence Stroll’s Yew Tree Consortium agreed to boost its stake in the firm to 26.2%.
OCI shares rise as much as 8.6% after Jefferies says it offers a “rare corner” of positive earnings momentum within the European chemicals sector and upgrades to buy.
Future shares rise as much as 21% after a full-year trading update that led Shore Capital to reiterate that the media company is well placed to deliver “attractive growth.” Analysts highlighted the stock’s low valuation.
Ascential shares rise as much as 7.6% in London after Sky News reports that Apax Partners has entered advanced discussions to buy the company’s consumer trend-spotting unit, WGSN.
Cellnex shares gain as much as 4.5% after Stonepeak buys 49% stake in Cellnex’s Swedish, Danish units for €730 million, according to a Spanish regulatory filing.
Fevertree shares rise 4.7% after Nordflint Capital Partners disclosed a 5% stake in the maker of tonics and mixers.
Alpha Group shares fall as much as 4.6%, to the lowest since March, after holder Morgan Tillbrook sold about 1.8% of its stake in the institutional broker at a price of £19.00 per share.
Earlier in the session, Asian equities also advanced, bolstered by a rally in Hong Kong stocks amid optimism over Golden Week holiday spending. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.4% on Friday, helping trim losses for the quarter to less than 4%. Chinese tech stocks trading in Hong Kong including Tencent and Alibaba offered the largest support.
Benchmarks in Hong Kong jumped more than 2%, outperforming in the region following further supportive measures by Chinese authorities, while the index was unfazed by the absence of mainland participants and Stock Connect flows due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and next week’s National Day holidays. Traders cited positive outlook for Chinese consumption during the peak travel season and dip buying as reasons for the rebound. The oil rally taking a breather also supported sentiment. “The bounce in China follows the US tech overnight and may be driven by some easing in the dollar and oil, both of which have been leaving markets anxious,” Marvin Chen, a strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence said. “It looks like a broad relief rally across the region after a week of declines,” Chen said.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 failed to sustain early gains and pulled back from resistance around the 32,000 level despite several encouraging data releases.
Hang Seng outperformed as property and tech surged after the recent easing of yields and
Shares in Australia and New Zealand also gained; the ASX 200 was kept afloat by outperformance in the mining and materials sectors but with trade constricted amid quasi-holiday conditions with Victoria state on a public holiday.
Indian stocks advanced Friday along with most Asian peers as expectations of higher spending during the upcoming Golden Week holiday in China boosted sentiment. The S&P BSE Sensex ended 0.5% higher at 65,828.41 as of 3:45 p.m. in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.6% to 19,638.30. India’s main benchmarks were up by a percent for the day before a late session selloff saw them come off their highs, as investors lightened positions due to the upcoming long weekend. Stocks closed lower on the week. Sentiment was also boosted by a slide in the dollar and some softness in Brent crude prices that are showing a struggle just under the psychological $100 a barrel mark.
In FX, the kiwi and Norwegian krone are the best performers among the G-10 currencies while the dollar fell for a second day and underperformed all G-10 peers amid quarter-end flows, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index about 0.4% lower; still, the gauge is up about 2.3% this quarter, the most in a year. “The dollar is trading lower as a much-needed correction takes hold,” said Win Thin, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. “The fundamental story remains in favor of the greenback as the US economy is in a much stronger position.” EURUSD rose 0.4% to 1.0604 and held its advance after euro area inflation came in below expectations. The yen briefly dipped after the central bank announced an unscheduled bond-buying operation, but later reversed losses to trade as much as 0.5% higher on the day. Meanwhile, Japan’s government bonds are poised for the worst quarterly selloff since 1998
In rates, global bond yields eased after the previous day’s selloff, with 10-year US Treasuries down about 3 basis points and Japanese 10-year yields sliding from decade-highs after an unscheduled bond-buying operation by the central bank. British and euro-area borrowing costs slid more than 5 basis points. French bonds were among the biggest gainers after data showed price growth unexpectedly slowing, a day after Germany reported inflation at the lowest in two years. Treasuries pushed higher following wider gains seen across core European rates, with yields down by 3bp to 4bp across the curve. US 10-year yields were around 4.55%, down by by 3bp on the day, with bunds and gilts outperforming by 4.5bp and 1bp in the sector, respectively; front-end lags rest of the curve slightly, flattening 2s10s spread by around 1bp on the day, sitting back around 50bp inverted. That said, the session could still see some quarter-end rebalancing flow, while highlights also include packed data slate headed by PCE deflator. Quarter and month-end re-balancing flows may still be in play for the session; Bloomberg indicies project a 0.07y October extension.
In commodities, crude prices reversed much of yesterday’s losses, trading higher in lockstep with broader risk sentiment on month and quarter end, but the range of price action this morning is narrow. Spot gold is modestly firmer amid the pullback in the Dollar after tumbling to a low of USD 1,857.79/oz this week – the lowest since early March – largely due to this week’s rise of the Greenback.
Bitcoin prices trade flat intraday around the USD 27,000 mark following yesterday’s risk-induced rally.
US economic data slate includes August wholesale inventories, personal income/spending, PCE deflator (8:30am), September MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am), University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Scheduled Fed speakers include Williams at 12:45pm
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 4,357.50
STOXX Europe 600 up 1.0% to 452.79
MXAP up 0.6% to 157.66
MXAPJ up 1.3% to 493.22
Nikkei little changed at 31,857.62
Topix down 0.9% to 2,323.39
Hang Seng Index up 2.5% to 17,809.66
Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,110.48
Sensex up 0.9% to 66,087.90
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,048.64
Kospi little changed at 2,465.07
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.86%
Euro up 0.4% to $1.0606
Brent Futures down 0.3% to $95.10/bbl
Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,872.18
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.43% to 105.77
Top Overnight News
The BOJ announced an unscheduled bond-purchase operation after yields on long and super-long debt climbed to decade highs. The operation is small and probably not strong enough to bring a big reduction in yields, according to Sumitomo Mitsui, but a larger one may weaken the yen toward 150 versus the dollar. BBG
Japan’s Tokyo CPI ex-food/energy for Sept comes in at +3.8%, down from +4% in Aug and below the Street’s +3.9% forecast (headline was +2.8%, down from +2.9% in Aug but ahead of the Street’s +2.7% forecast). BBG
A senior executive at American risk advisory firm Kroll has been barred from leaving mainland China, the latest example of Chinese authorities imposing exit bans on the employees of foreign firms. Michael Chan, a Hong Kong-based managing director who specializes in corporate restructuring, is assisting an investigation into a case that dates back a few years, according to people familiar with the matter. Neither Chan nor Kroll is the target of the investigation, the people said. WSJ
China has proposed relaxing its strict rules on data flows abroad, in its latest move to allay foreign business concerns and revive faltering growth in the world’s second-largest economy. The Cyberspace Administration of China has drafted a set of exemptions to its requirement for approval to send personal data overseas, which applied to cross-border purchases, money transfers and air and hotel reservations. BBG
Saudi Arabia is determined to secure a military pact requiring the United States to defend the kingdom in return for opening ties with Israel and will not hold up a deal even if Israel does not offer major concessions to Palestinians in their bid for statehood, three regional sources familiar with the talks said. RTRS
Europe’s CPI sinks to +4.3% on the headline (down from +5.2% in Aug and below the Street’s +4.5% forecast) while core falls to +4.5% (down from +5.3% in Aug and below the Street’s +4.8% forecast). France’s CPI for Sept cools to +5.6%, down from +5.7% in Aug and below the Street’s +5.9% forecast. BBG
Credit Suisse flagged potential losses of as much as $2.2 billion in the third quarter as it exits more businesses. The losses from loan portfolios won’t affect UBS results as the impact was previously taken into account, said Vontobel analyst Andreas Venditti. UBS shares ticked up. BBG
The world’s financial stability watchdog is launching a probe of the build-up of debt outside traditional banks, as it seeks to limit hedge funds’ borrowing and boost transparency. Klaas Knot, chair of the Financial Stability Board, told the Financial Times the review was intended to address rising risks from so-called non-banks, which include hedge funds and private capital. FT
US income and spending data for August may complicate the Fed’s soft-landing optimism, Bloomberg Economics said. Revised data is expected to show prices running hotter than previously thought. Still, core PCE inflation and Jerome Powell’s preferred “supercore” gauge probably came in soft for a third straight month, while spending and income grew at a solid pace. BBG
A more detailed look at global market courtesy of newquawk
APAC stocks mostly took impetus from Wall St’s positive lead after risk appetite was spurred as yields and oil prices declined from recent peaks but with some of the gains in the region capped heading into quarter-end and amid several holiday closures. ASX 200 was kept afloat by outperformance in the mining and materials sectors but with trade constricted amid quasi-holiday conditions with Victoria state on a public holiday. Nikkei 225 failed to sustain early gains and pulled back from resistance around the 32,000 level despite several encouraging data releases. Hang Seng outperformed as property and tech surged after the recent easing of yields and following further supportive measures by Chinese authorities, while the index was unfazed by the absence of mainland participants and Stock Connect flows due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and next week’s National Day holidays.
Top Asian News
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said don’t have a defence line in dealing with FX moves and that current FX moves suggest the Yen’s weakness has progressed, according to Reuters.
European bourses are trading higher across the board with the Stoxx 600 now virtually flat week-to-date after yesterday’s positive session helped erase losses earlier in the week, while EZ inflation metrics this morning printed below expectations. Sectors in Europe are mostly firmer with Consumer Products & Services top of the leaderboard as luxury names benefit from broker action. Other gainers include Tech, Real Estate and Basic Resources, whilst Insurance and Energy are the only sectors in the red. US futures are trading firmer as they continue to advance on yesterday’s gains, owing to a generally more positive risk tone and as yields see some downside over the past couple of sessions.
Top European News
LVMH (MC FP) CEO Bernard Arnault and Russian oligarch Nikolai Sarkisov are under investigation for alleged money laundering, via Yahoo Finance.
ECB’s Vasle said headline inflation is on a declining trend; growth is slowing but the labour market remains strong; transmission of ECB policy to the banking sector is strong, according to Bloomberg.
ECB’s Vujcic said he is confident that inflation will slow in the coming months, according to Bloomberg.
FX
DXY succumbs to more intense selling pressure and retreats to 105.660 amid softer US Treasury yields and renewed risk appetite.
Euro bounced from around 1.0559 to 1.0616 irrespective of weaker than consensus German retail sales, French and pan-Eurozone inflation metrics that exacerbated the revival in EGBs.
Pound secured a firmer grip of the 1.2200 handle against the Dollar, even before better-than-expected BoE consumer credit, mortgage approvals and lending, but stalled just ahead of the 10 DMA that came in at 1.2259.
Antipodeans sit as the top G10 performers amid the constructive risk tone while the Yen benefits from the pullback in yields.
Fixed Income
EGBs were already clawing back some of their heavy losses before below-forecast German retail sales provided a bit more impetus, but weaker than expected French CPI offered more incentive and the ensuing softer-than-consensus pan-Eurozone readings further bolstered the benchmarks.
Bunds extended their rebound to exactly 100 ticks from Eurex low to 128.46 high, OATs probed 123.00 at 123.05 from 121.98 at worst and even BTPs got close to 110.00 from sub-109.00 irrespective of mixed Italian inflation metrics.
Gilts reached 94.18 compared to their early 93.62 Liffe base and the T-note is hovering close to the top of a 108-8+/107-26 range.
Commodities
Crude prices have been relatively flat throughout the European morning, but the contracts have been tilting higher in lockstep with broader risk sentiment on month and quarter end, but the range of price action this morning is narrow.
Spot gold is modestly firmer amid the pullback in the Dollar after tumbling to a low of USD 1,857.79/oz this week – the lowest since early March – largely due to this week’s rise of the Greenback.
Base metals are also on a firmer footing amid the Dollar pull-back and the broader constructive risk profile.
UK treasury minister Penn said the efficacy of the Russian oil price cap must be kept under review.
US President Biden administration’s 5-year offshore oil plan will be released on Friday but does not include any sales for 2024 and will have no more than 1 auction in each of the final four years, according to Reuters sources.
Russia may introduce quotas on overseas fuel exports if the complete export ban (imposed last week) does not bring down high domestic gasoline and diesel prices, according to Russian Deputy PM Novak cited by Reuters.
Geopolitics
Saudi Arabia is reportedly determined to secure a military pact requiring the US to defend the kingdom in return for opening ties with Israel, and will not hold up a deal even if Israel does not offer major concessions to Palestinians, via Reuters citing sources A pact might fall short of the NATO-style defence guarantees the kingdom initially sought when the issue was first discussed between MBS and US President Biden during the Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia in July 2022. Washington could also sweeten any deal by designating Saudi Arabia a Major Non-NATO Ally, a status already given to Israel, according to the source.
US Assistant Secretary of State Kritenbrink met with China’s Vice Foreign Minister in Washington and the two sides held candid, in-depth and constructive consultations on regional issues. Furthermore, Kritenbrink reaffirmed the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and the sides discussed regional issues including Myanmar, North Korea and maritime matters.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen is to use improved communications with China to discuss contentious issues and gain new insights into China’s economy, via Axios.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Aug. Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.2%
08:30: Aug. Personal Spending, est. 0.5%, prior 0.8%
08:30: Aug. Real Personal Spending, est. 0%, prior 0.6%
08:30: Aug. PCE Core Deflator YoY, est. 3.9%, prior 4.2%
08:30: Aug. PCE Core Deflator MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
08:30: Aug. PCE Deflator YoY, est. 3.5%, prior 3.3%
08:30: Aug. PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.2%
08:30: Aug. Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$91.4b, prior -$91.2b, revised -$90.9b
08:30: Aug. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.2%, prior -0.2%
09:45: Sept. MNI Chicago PMI, est. 47.6, prior 48.7
10:00: Sept. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 67.7, prior 67.7
10:00: Sept. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 69.8, prior 69.8
10:00: Sept. U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 66.4, prior 66.3
10:00: Sept. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 3.2%, prior 3.1%
10:00: Sept. U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 2.8%, prior 2.7%
11:00: Sept. Kansas City Fed Services Activ, prior -1
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As we arrive at the last business day of the month, it’s fair to say that September has lived up to its reputation as the worst month of the year for markets. The sour mood dominated the early part of yesterday, with yields hitting new highs for the cycle on both sides of the Atlantic. For instance, 10yr bund yields rose +9.1bps to a post-2011 high of 2.93%, whilst 10yr Treasury yields hit an intraday high of 4.69%, before a sharp turn that took them down over 10bps intraday to 4.57% by the close. We’ve pointed out recently that a 10yr Treasury yield at 4.5% is actually in line with the long-term historical average, but as markets got increasingly used to a decade-and-a-half of historically low rates since the GFC, this is coming as a big adjustment to lots of investors. Indeed, it was only three-and-a-half years ago that the 10yr Treasury yield hit an all-time intraday low of 0.31%. But since then we’ve seen an astonishing turnaround, and it’s worth remembering that the annual rise in the 10yr yield of 236bps over 2022 was already the biggest annual increase since 1788. So even though yesterday saw a breather by the end of the session, it’s no exaggeration to say we’re in the midst of a historic sell-off.
That rates sell-off dominated in Europe, with the UK seeing the biggest declines. At one point intraday, the 1 0yr gilt yield was even on track to close more than +20bps higher, which would have been the biggest daily increase since the aftermath of the mini-budget last year. But it then pared back those moves to “only” close up by +12.9bps. It was the same story elsewhere in Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds (+9.1bps), OATs (+8.8bps) and BTPs (+7.7bps) all rising significantly. What was also striking was that higher real yields drove those moves, and the German 10yr real yield closed at a post-2011 high of 0.50%.
Those bond losses occurred despite some downside surprises in the latest inflation data. For instance, the September flash CPI release for Germany fell to a two-year low of +4.3% on the EU-harmonised measure (vs. +4.5% expected). Meanwhile in Spain, we did see CPI move up by eight-tenths to +3.2%, but that was still beneath the +3.3% reading expected by the consensus. So both were less than expected. All eyes will now be on the CPI release for the entire Euro Area today, which is out at 10am London time.
We also got several data releases from the US yesterday, but for now the biggest question surrounds the potential government shutdown, which could happen over the weekend. As it stands, there’s still no sign that the House and Senate will be able to agree on a new funding package, with current funding set to expire this Sunday, October 1. For the economy, the main issue is that federal employees would be furloughed, which would act as a drag on growth. And for markets, there’s the added point that we could miss out on some upcoming data releases, including the jobs report next Friday. So if a shutdown does happen, markets may well have to rely more on alternative survey indicators that will still come out like the ISM manufacturing and service prints. See Brett Ryan’s piece here on how previous shutdowns have impacted the economy and data releases.
Another ongoing issue for the US economy is the autoworkers strike, and several outlets including CNN have reported that the United Auto Workers union could announce an expansion of strikes today if progress isn’t made. On that topic, Olga Cotaga and Luke Templeman on our team have published a report which argues that, regardless of inflation, this is just the beginning of greater labour demands. Large corporates stand to have their margins squeezed as a result. Their report can be found here.
As we await developments on a potential shutdown and the strikes, the US labour market still appeared resilient, with the weekly jobless claims coming in at 204k (vs. 215k expected) over the week ending September 23. That takes the 4-week moving average down to 211k, which is the lowest it’s been since February. Separately, we got the latest benchmark GDP revisions from the US, which showed the economy growing a bit faster than previously thought. For example, over 2017-22, it showed GDP grew by 2.2% on average, a tenth higher than before. For Q1 2023, growth was revi sed up to 2.2% on an annualised basis (vs. 2.0% before), and Q2 2023 was left unchanged at an annualised +2.1%. There was some less encouraging news on the housing front, however, with monthly pending home sales for August showing their sharpest fall in 11 months, down -7.1% .
The claims and GDP revisions data initially gave more steam to the Treasuries sell-off, with 10yr Treasury yields reaching a high 4.69% shortly after. But yields saw a steady turn lower during the rest of the session, with 10yr closing -3.3bps lower at 4.57% and the 2yr down -7.8bps to 5.06%. So once again, there was a big steepening in the yield curve, with the 2s10s curve up +4.6bps to -48.5bps, which is the least inverted it’s been since May. And despite yesterday’s reversal, 10yr yields have since moved up +1.9bps overnight to 4.59%, are still up +16.0bps since last Friday – which means they’re on course for the biggest rise in yields since early July.
Despite a volatile rates backdrop, equities rebounded yesterday and the S&P 500 (+0.59%) posted its strongest day in two weeks. The advance was fairly broad-based, and tech stocks were an outperformer with the NASDAQ (+0.83%) and the FANG+ index (+1.18%) both seeing even bigger gains. Nevertheless, even with yesterday’s recovery, the S&P 500 remains on track for its worst monthly performance of 2023 so far, having shed -4.61% since the start of the month. Furthermore, it’s on course for a 4th consecutive weekly loss for the first time since December. Over in Europe, both the STOXX 600 (+0.36%) and the DAX (+0.70%) ended a run of 5 consecutive declines .
Overnight in Asia, there’s been a pretty mixed performance from the major indices. On the one hand, the Hang Seng (+2.71%) is currently on course for its best day since July, whereas the Nikkei (-0.12%) has posted a modest decline this morning. Otherwise, markets in mainland China are closed today and into next week, and they’re also closed in South Korea. Looking forward, European and US equity futures are trading modestly higher, with those on the DAX (+0.30%) and the S&P 500 (+0.06%) in positive territory.
Otherwise overnight, the Bank of Japan announced an unscheduled bond-purchase operation, which came as the 10yr yield has hit its highest level in a decade overnight, at 0.77%. They’ve since fallen back to 0.76%, although that would still be their highest closing level in the last decade. At the same time, we’ve had several data releases from Japan overnight. That included the unemployment rate for August, which held at 2.7% (vs. 2.6% expected), as well as the Tokyo CPI reading for September, where core-core inflation slowed to +3.8% (vs. +3.9% expected) .
To the day ahead, and the main data highlight will be the Euro Area flash CPI release for September. Alongside that we’ll get German unemployment for September, UK mortgage approvals for August. Over in the US, we’ll get PCE inflation for August, along with personal income and spending data, as well as the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for September, and the MNI Chicago PMI for September. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Kazaks and Visco, and the Fed’s Williams.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities firmer amid positive risk-tone, DXY dips on softer yields; US PCE due – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, SEP 29, 2023 – 05:46 AM
European bourses are trading higher across the board with the Stoxx 600; US equity futures are also firmer in a continuation of yesterday’s gains.
DXY succumbs to more intense selling pressure amid softer US Treasury yields and renewed risk appetite; Antipodeans outperform.
EGBs rebound following softer-than-expected German Retail Sales, French and pan-EZ inflation metrics.
Crude prices have been relatively flat throughout the European morning, but the contracts have been tilting higher in lockstep with broader risk sentiment on month and quarter-end.
Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE, Chicago PMI, UoM Sentiment, Speeches from Fed’s Barkin, Williams.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are trading higher across the board with the Stoxx 600 now virtually flat week-to-date after yesterday’s positive session helped erase losses earlier in the week, while EZ inflation metrics this morning printed below expectations.
Sectors in Europe are mostly firmer with Consumer Products & Services top of the leaderboard as luxury names benefit from broker action. Other gainers include Tech, Real Estate and Basic Resources, whilst Insurance and Energy are the only sectors in the red.
US futures are trading firmer as they continue to advance on yesterday’s gains, owing to a generally more positive risk tone and as yields see some downside over the past couple of sessions.
DXY succumbs to more intense selling pressure and retreats to 105.660 amid softer US Treasury yields and renewed risk appetite.
Euro bounced from around 1.0559 to 1.0616 irrespective of weaker than consensus German retail sales, French and pan-Eurozone inflation metrics that exacerbated the revival in EGBs.
Pound secured a firmer grip of the 1.2200 handle against the Dollar, even before better-than-expected BoE consumer credit, mortgage approvals and lending, but stalled just ahead of the 10 DMA that came in at 1.2259.
Antipodeans sit as the top G10 performers amid the constructive risk tone while the Yen benefits from the pullback in yields.
EGBs were already clawing back some of their heavy losses before below-forecast German retail sales provided a bit more impetus, but weaker than expected French CPI offered more incentive and the ensuing softer-than-consensus pan-Eurozone readings further bolstered the benchmarks.
Bunds extended their rebound to exactly 100 ticks from Eurex low to 128.46 high, OATs probed 123.00 at 123.05 from 121.98 at worst and even BTPs got close to 110.00 from sub-109.00 irrespective of mixed Italian inflation metrics.
Gilts reached 94.18 compared to their early 93.62 Liffe base and the T-note is hovering close to the top of a 108-8+/107-26 range.
Crude prices have been relatively flat throughout the European morning, but the contracts have been tilting higher in lockstep with broader risk sentiment on month and quarter end, but the range of price action this morning is narrow.
Spot gold is modestly firmer amid the pullback in the Dollar after tumbling to a low of USD 1,857.79/oz this week – the lowest since early March – largely due to this week’s rise of the Greenback.
Base metals are also on a firmer footing amid the Dollar pull-back and the broader constructive risk profile.
UK treasury minister Penn said the efficacy of the Russian oil price cap must be kept under review.
US President Biden administration’s 5-year offshore oil plan will be released on Friday but does not include any sales for 2024 and will have no more than 1 auction in each of the final four years, according to Reuters sources.
Russia may introduce quotas on overseas fuel exports if the complete export ban (imposed last week) does not bring down high domestic gasoline and diesel prices, according to Russian Deputy PM Novak cited by Reuters.
Polish CPI Flash MM -0.40% vs. Exp. -0.05% (Prev. 0.00%)
Polish CPI Flash YY 8.20% vs. Exp. 8.50% (Prev. 10.10%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
LVMH (MC FP) CEO Bernard Arnault and Russian oligarch Nikolai Sarkisov are under investigation for alleged money laundering, via Yahoo Finance.
ECB’s Vasle said headline inflation is on a declining trend; growth is slowing but the labour market remains strong; transmission of ECB policy to the banking sector is strong, according to Bloomberg.
ECB’s Vujcic said he is confident that inflation will slow in the coming months, according to Bloomberg.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Fed’s Barkin (non-voter) said a government shutdown would create uncertainty and the lack of data due to a shutdown would complicate understanding the economy. Barkin also stated that it is too soon to say what is next for monetary policy and if another hike is needed, while he added the economy will drive what the Fed decides on monetary policy.
US House Republicans release stopgap bill to fund the US government, according to Bloomberg.
US House passed State Department, Defense and Homeland appropriations bills.
US House GOP hardliners are reportedly plotting an attempt to replace House Speaker McCarthy with one of his deputies as early as next week as a shutdown looms, according to the Washington Post.
US President Biden’s top aides were questioned in an inquiry into the handling of documents including Steve Ricchetti and National Security Adviser Sullivan, according to NYT
French authorities approved Apple’s (AAPL) software update of its iPhone 12, according to Reuters.
Saudi Arabia is reportedly determined to secure a military pact requiring the US to defend the kingdom in return for opening ties with Israel, and will not hold up a deal even if Israel does not offer major concessions to Palestinians, via Reuters citing sources A pact might fall short of the NATO-style defence guarantees the kingdom initially sought when the issue was first discussed between MBS and US President Biden during the Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia in July 2022. Washington could also sweeten any deal by designating Saudi Arabia a Major Non-NATO Ally, a status already given to Israel, according to the source.
US Assistant Secretary of State Kritenbrink met with China’s Vice Foreign Minister in Washington and the two sides held candid, in-depth and constructive consultations on regional issues. Furthermore, Kritenbrink reaffirmed the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and the sides discussed regional issues including Myanmar, North Korea and maritime matters.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen is to use improved communications with China to discuss contentious issues and gain new insights into China’s economy, via Axios.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin prices trade flat intraday around the USD 27,000 mark following yesterday’s risk-induced rally.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks mostly took impetus from Wall St’s positive lead after risk appetite was spurred as yields and oil prices declined from recent peaks but with some of the gains in the region capped heading into quarter-end and amid several holiday closures.
ASX 200 was kept afloat by outperformance in the mining and materials sectors but with trade constricted amid quasi-holiday conditions with Victoria state on a public holiday.
Nikkei 225 failed to sustain early gains and pulled back from resistance around the 32,000 level despite several encouraging data releases.
Hang Seng outperformed as property and tech surged after the recent easing of yields and following further supportive measures by Chinese authorities, while the index was unfazed by the absence of mainland participants and Stock Connect flows due to the Mid-Autumn Festival and next week’s National Day holidays.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said don’t have a defence line in dealing with FX moves and that current FX moves suggest the Yen’s weakness has progressed, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
Tokyo CPI YY (Sep) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.9%)
Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Sep) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.8%)
Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Sep) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. 4.0%)
Japanese Industrial Production MM (Aug P) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. -1.8%)
Japanese Industrial Production YY (Aug P) -3.8% vs. Exp. -4.6% (Prev. -2.4%)
Japanese Retail Sales MM (Aug) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 2.1%, Rev. 2.2%)
Japanese Retail Sales YY (Aug) 7.0% vs. Exp. 6.6% (Prev. 6.8%, Rev. 7.0%)
Japanese Unemployment Rate (Aug) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.7%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.16 PTS OR 0.10% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 436.63 PTS OR 2.51%/ /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 14.90 PTS OR 0.05% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.38 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.3015 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN UP TO 7.2938 /Oil DOWN TO 92.78 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 93.98 / Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
//NORTH KOREA/USA/SOUTH KOREA
North Korea enshrines more advanced atomic weapons
(zerohedge)
North Korea Enshrines “Permanent” Nuclear Power Status In Constitution
THURSDAY, SEP 28, 2023 – 05:20 PM
On Thursday North Korean state media quoted leader Kim Jong Un as saying more advanced atomic weapons are needed to counter the threat from the United States.
This signals the death knell for Washington’s long stated policy goal of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, given that the remarks came as Kim enshrined the DPRK’s status as a permanent nuclear power in its constitution.
North Korea’s “nuclear force-building policy has been made permanent as the basic law of the state, which no one is allowed to flout,”Kim told the State People’s Assembly, according to state-run KCNA.
Starting last year he declared the north as an “irreversible” nuclear weapons state, and has in the last couple months ramped up ballistic missile tests in response to intermittent, ongoing joint US military drills with the south. This has already been a record year in terms of the number of Pyongyang’s missile tests.
The north’s rubber-stamp parliament, which met Tuesday and Wednesday, has approved the nuclear update to the constitution. Kim described that this was necessary as the United States has “maximized its nuclear war threats to our Republic by resuming the large-scale nuclear war joint drills with clear aggressive nature and putting the deployment of its strategic nuclear assets near the Korean peninsula on a permanent basis.”
In July, the nuclear-armed USS Kentucky Navy ballistic missile submarine made a port call in South Korea, which marked a first in decades. It has stayed there since, enraging Pyongyang.
Kim in his Thursday address also blasted growing defense cooperation between Washington, Seoul and Tokyo as the “worst actual threat,” saying that as a result “it is very important for the DPRK to accelerate the modernization of nuclear weapons in order to hold the definite edge of strategic deterrence.”
A similar message was delivered in New York on Tuesday by Kim Song, North Korea’s representative at the UN, who said in an address to the UN General Assembly that the region is close to the “brink of a nuclear war”.
“Owing to the reckless and continued hysteria of nuclear showdown on the part of the US and its following forces, the year 2023 has been recorded as an extremely dangerous year that the military security situation in and around the Korean peninsula was driven closer to the brink of a nuclear war,” he said.
“Due to [Seoul’s] sycophantic and humiliating policy of depending on outside forces, the Korean peninsula is in a hair-trigger situation with imminent danger of nuclear war,” the ambassador continued. He further blasted the US for attempting to erect an “Asian NATO” that will bring a “new Cold War structure to northeast Asia.”
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
end
3 CHINA /
CHINA/
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
Europe finally realizes that mass immigration is destroying them
(zerohedge)
Too Little Too Late? Europe Finally Realizes Mass Immigration Is Destroying Them
FRIDAY, SEP 29, 2023 – 05:45 AM
In 2014 Europe was under siege, with millions of African and Arab migrants marching into the EU and using asylum claims to quickly enter the region without vetting. With the union facing an unprecedented surge of foreigners not seen since WWII or the collapse of Yugoslavia, some among the public called the event a crisis. EU officials did not see it that way. Instead of securing their borders and repelling the invasion, top representatives like Angela Merkel announced they would open their borders completely to migrants and refugees in 2015.
Many migrants were given the impression that free housing, welfare and easy employment would be made available to them upon arrival in Germany. The reality was far more complicated, but the image of a golden land of ease was all that was needed to trigger a tidal wave. With shared border policies in the EU, Germany’s decision became every other nation’s problem.
At the time, the decidedly socialist European majority applauded the move; with many leftists meeting migrants at train stations to clap and cheer. To grasp the mentality of the political left it’s important to understand that they were not cheering the migrants so much as cheering themselves – Leftists have been conditioned to believe in original sin, and that original sin is to be a white “colonizing” westerner. They were really cheering themselves; they saw open borders as an act of self sacrifice and appeasement to the gods of progressive ideology.
The result has been disastrous.
Ever since this suicidal action Europe has been overrun, with millions of migrants flowing into the region each year. As of 2022, there were “officially” 23.8 million non-citizens living in the EU, most of them entering in the past five years. The majority of them were concentrated in Italy, France, Sweden, Germany and the UK.
All of these countries have seen a spike in violent crime and property theft, with the proliferation of gang violence and increasing incidents of rape. European officials have consistently sought to cover up and hide the exploding crime statistics, including the rising number of child abuse incidents at the hands of migrants.
With stagflation becoming entrenched in the EU and much of the world, the delusion that western countries have the wealth and means to support tens of millions of foreigners seeking welfare handouts is finally waning. The effort to obscure the effects of the population surge and clash of incompatible cultures is losing steam. Now, suddenly, European politicians are at least pretending to care about secure borders.
Italy has approved detention for illegal migrants unless they can provide $5259 as a processing fee for their asylum requests. This action has been taken because of the surge in migrant boats arriving on the shores of the island of Lampedusa from Africa. The non-citizen population now greatly outnumbers native Lampedusa residents. A naval blockade to stop the boats is also under discussion. The French government says they will refuse to take any new migrants from the region.
While citizens welcome government intervention to protect the border, in places like Lampedusa they worry that their home will become nothing more than a sprawling detention center for migrants waiting for their asylum applications to be approved. The solution is obvious – send them packing back to where they came from.
The EU is working on reforms to speed the return of illegal immigrants and prevent them from traveling easily within the union. However, this may be a distraction from their real agenda. At the same time, EU officials are trying to make legal immigration far easier and they are implementing loophole conditions which allow mass migration in the event of an “emergency.” They are shifting the standards but the end result would likely be the same.
The primary rationale presented in favor of mass migration is “population replacement.” Leftists claim that the west is facing plummeting birth rates and migrants are needed to keep the economy robust. This argument holds no water. In every case, countries and states that take on more migrants also witness economic decline and strained social services (just look at what is happening in the US in cities like Chicago, New York and Washington DC). These are not educated workers bringing valuable skill sets to the table, the majority of them are feeding off of favorable welfare conditions. If the welfare did not exist, they would not have migrated.
Furthermore, it’s hard to take leftists seriously when they pretend to be concerned with western birth rates while also aggressively defending abortion practices.
The citizenry of Europe is growing tired after a decade of insurgency and expanding crime. Since at least 2018, polls show the majority of the public is against further open border policies, which progressive leaders and the media have called a “rise of the far right” that they say is driven by “racism.” But the race baiting and old woke arguments are not working anymore. When the consequences of uncontrolled migration hit the doorsteps of the average family, they are not going to be manipulated by emotionally charged labels. They are going to be far more worried about survival.
END
EUROPE/INFLATION
Inflation tumbles to two year low but this is before the rise in the price of oil
(zerohedge)
Eurozone Inflation Tumbles To Two-Year Low
FRIDAY, SEP 29, 2023 – 11:25 AM
There was good news on the crusade against inflation front on both side of the Atlantic.
As we reported earlier, core PCE – the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – came in mostly in line and was still “sticky high”, even as sequential prints actually came below expectations, with core PCE up just 0.1% MoM, the lowest sequential increase since Nov 2020. Even the Fed’s mouthpiece, WSJ’s Nikileaks, had nothing but superlatives for today’s US PCE print, and pointing to the 3-month annualized numbers (Core goods: -2.6%; Housing: +5.4%; Core services ex-housing: +3.4%) said that “core services ex-housing rose 0.14% in August from July, the mildest MoM increase in three years.”
Of course, all that will change very fast, once the soaring oil and gas prices flow through to other industries – for context, gas prices have never been higher at this time of year…
… and headline inflation spikes sharply higher in the coming months. But until them, sentiment has clearly “doved out”, and the latest inflation data out of Europe only helped.
According to Eurostat, Eurozone inflation fell to its lowest level for almost two years, bolstering hopes that the biggest surge in consumer prices for a generation is fading fast and paving the way for the European Central Bank to halt interest rate rises, and even maybe cut rates once Europe’s recession get worse.
Headline CPI in the Euro area rose 4.3% in the year to September, down from 5.2% in August, and below the 4.5% consensus estimate. The last time inflation was lower was in October 2021. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food and is closely watched by the ECB as a gauge of underlying price pressures, also fell more than expected to 4.5%, down sharply from 5.3% in August.
Commenting on the latest inflation data, Goldman wrote that “core HICP inflation fell 74bp to 4.55%yoy, notably below consensus expectations. Euro area headline HICP inflation fell 90bp to 4.34%yoy, also below expectations. We estimate that seasonally adjusted sequential core inflation was 0.15%mom, 13bp below the ECB’s estimate of the August pace. Within core inflation, we estimate that seasonally adjusted sequential core goods inflation was 0.16%mom (vs 0.30%mom in August), while sequential services inflation was 0.14%mom (vs 0.23%mom in August).” The bank updated its inflation forecast and now expects core and headline inflation to be 3.7%yoy (vs 3.9%yoy previously) and 3.8%yoy (vs 4.0%yoy previously) respectively in December 2023.
Some more details:
1. Euro area core HICP inflation fell 74bp (on rounding) to 4.55%yoy, notably below consensus expectations, while headline HICP inflation fell 90bp to 4.34%yoy, also below expectations.
2. The breakdown by main expenditure categories showed services inflation fell eight-tenths of a percentage point to 4.7%yoy, and non-energy industrial goods’ inflation fell five-tenths of a percentage point to 4.2%yoy. Of the non-core components, energy inflation fell 1.4pp to -4.7%yoy, while food, alcohol and tobacco inflation fell nine-tenths of a percentage point to 8.8%yoy (Exhibit 1).
3. Seasonally adjusted sequential core inflation was 0.15%mom on a bottom-up approach (0.06%mom top-down), compared with the ECB’s estimate of the August pace at 0.28%mom. Within core inflation, sequential core goods inflation was 0.16%mom, below the Q1 and Q2 averages of 0.43%mom and 0.23%mom, respectively. Sequential services inflation was 0.14%mom, below both the Q1 and Q2 averages of 0.46%mom and 0.43%mom respectively (Exhibit 2).
Price growth slowed in 15 of the 20 eurozone members and came in below the ECB’s 2 per cent target in two of them. Prices fell in the Netherlands by 0.3% from a year ago. The bloc’s highest inflation rate was 8.9% in Slovakia. The removal of last year’s cheap German public transport tickets and fuel prices from the annual comparison pushed inflation down, while France’s recent cut in its electricity subsidy lifted energy prices.
The sharp slowdown in inflation added to investors’ hopes that the ECB will end its unprecedented string of 10 consecutive interest rate increases when its governing council meets on October 26.
“This reinforces our view that the ECB has finished raising interest rates,” said Jack Allen-Reynolds, an economist at research group Capital Economics, according to the FT. “Nevertheless, we continue to think that the bank won’t start cutting rates until late 2024.”
Inflation in the eurozone has fallen from a peak of 10.6% last year. Price pressures in the bloc have receded more slowly than in the US, which reported inflation of 3.7% in August, but faster than in the UK, where inflation was 6.7% last month.
European government bonds rallied after the better than expected figures for eurozone and French inflation were published, while equity markets strengthened.
Following turmoil in European bond markets on Thursday, Italian 10-year government bond yields fell 0.15 percentage points to 4.76 per cent on Friday, down from their highest level in a decade. At the same time, German 10-year bond yields slipped 0.1 percentage points to 2.85 per cent, having also hit a 10-year high during the previous trading session.
The euro strengthened 0.4 per cent against the dollar to $1.0603. In equity markets, Europe’s region-wide Stoxx 600 added 1 per cent and Germany’s Dax rose 0.6 per cent. London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.6 per, while France’s Cac 40 index gained 0.7 per cent.
And while the drop in inflation is good, the question is how bad will the coming stagflation be. The eurozone economy is widely expected to shrink in the third quarter and separate data published on Friday added to these fears after German retail sales fell for the third consecutive month in August, dropping 1.2 per cent from July. French household spending fell 0.5 per cent in the same period.
Despite the recent jump in oil prices, the cost of energy in the eurozone fell 4.7 per cent in the year to September, a faster decline than the previous month. There were also falls in food, alcohol and tobacco inflation to 8.8 per cent and in goods inflation to 4.2 per cent. Services inflation slowed to 4.7 per cent, dragged down by a sharp monthly fall in airfares.
END
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
end
UKRAINE/WAGNER/RUSSIA
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
END
6.GLOBAL ISSUES AND VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
NIH Doctor Flagged Wuhan Virus Lab Safety Problems As Early As 2017
A doctor working for the U.S. government in 2017 visited the China-based virus research facility that may have leaked the pathogen that causes COVID-19, and sounded the alarm on safety issues at the lab earlier than previously reported, according to documents obtained by The Epoch Times.
Dr. Ping Chen, who worked for the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), visited the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) in October 2017 and prepared a report for her superiors after her visit.
While a version of her report obtained by a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request was fully redacted, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) and his team were granted an opportunity to carry out an in-camera review of the report that had some of the redactions removed.
“It is clear to me by talking to the technician that certainly there is a need for training support” at the Wuhan lab, Dr. Chen wrote in the report, parts of which were attached to a letter sent by Mr. Johnson to Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Xavier Becerra on Sept. 21.
The letter, which was obtained by The Epoch Times, includes fragments of Dr. Chen’s report and suggests that HHS and the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) were aware of safety issues at the Wuhan facility as early as October 2017.
The P4 laboratory on the campus of the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, on May 13, 2020. (Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images)
Earlier reporting based on two State Department cables and correspondence records obtained by Judicial Watch indicate that NIH was made aware of safety problems at the Wuhan lab in 2018, the year after Dr. Chen’s report.
“I think the institute would welcome any help and technical support by NIAID,” Dr. Chen wrote in her 2017 report.
Mr. Johnson wrote in his letter to Mr. Becerra that Dr. Chen’s 2017 report partially served as the basis for a Jan. 19, 2018, State Department cable that raised safety concerns about the Wuhan virus lab.
Evidence suggests that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, leaked from the Wuhan facility before spreading across the world. According to the so-called lab leak theory, the deadly pathogen that caused the pandemic escaped the Chinese facility, which was conducting risky gain-of-function research on bat coronaviruses that was partially funded by U.S. taxpayer dollars.
Demands
Mr. Johnson demanded that HHS provide a version of Dr. Chen’s 2017 report that contains fewer redactions in order to scrutinize its contents more closely and determine how closely it aligned with the cable.
“In the public FOIA document, HHS redacted Dr. Chen’s entire report claiming that it contains privacy and deliberative information,” Mr. Johnson wrote.
“It seems apparent that the only reason that HHS redacted this information was to hide the report’s contents from the American people. Perhaps HHS did not want the public to fully understand the fact that NIH and NIAID officials were aware of safety concerns at the WIV dating as far back as 2017,” he added.
Mr. Johnson also accused NIH and HHS of obstructing his probe.
“HHS and NIH continue to obstruct my oversight efforts,” he wrote. “It is unacceptable that HHS and NIH had Dr. Chen’s report in its possession and only provided a slightly less redacted version for my staff to review in camera.”
He demanded that HHS provide unredacted copies of Dr. Chen’s report and all documents and communications relating to the report and to the Wuhan lab.
Mr. Johnson also asked for Dr. Chen to sit before a congressional panel and testify.
He set an Oct. 5 deadline for HHS to comply with his request.
HHS officials didn’t immediately respond to a request by The Epoch Times for comment.
Chinese virologist Shi Zhengli is seen inside the P4 laboratory in Wuhan, China, on Feb. 23, 2017. (Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images)
‘Preponderance of Evidence’ for Lab Leak
In August 2021, a report by Republican lawmakers noted a “preponderance of evidence” that the virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic leaked from the Wuhan lab.
Chinese officials have denied the lab leak claim, insisting that the virus made a natural jump from animals to humans.
Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said in testimony before the Coronavirus Select Subcommittee Republicans that evidence points to a lab leak as the likely origin of the virus, saying that “it’s time to completely dismiss the wet market as the source of the outbreak” and “the preponderance of the evidence that it came from the lab is very convincing.”
U.S. intelligence agencies later said in a report that a natural origin and a lab leak are both plausible hypotheses but that a lack of evidence makes a definitive conclusion either way impossible.
It’s a sentiment echoed by Mr. McCaul in his testimony.
“Unfortunately, we may never know for certain because the Chinese Communist Party went to great lengths to cover up this outbreak,” he said. “They detained the doctors in order to silence them. They disappeared journalists. They destroyed lab samples. They hid the fact there was clear evidence of human-to-human transmission. And they have refused to allow a real investigation into the origins.”
Wuhan Lab Funding Controversy
The U.S. Agency for International Development awarded a total of $1.1 million to the WIV between October 2009 and May 2019, the agency wrote in a May 2021 letter (pdf) to Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.).
Mr. Reschenthaler alleged that the funding was used for a study that used gain-of-function research to create “a hybrid, man-made virus by inserting a spiked protein from a wild coronavirus into a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone, which could infect human airways.”
The agency said the funds were channeled through EcoHealth Alliance and were meant for the purpose of advancing research on critical viruses that could pose a threat to humans. It also denied claims that the money was used for gain-of-function research, which seeks to boost viral lethality for the purpose of studying it.
In June 2022, the House Appropriations Committee approved a ban on sending any further funding to the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
More recently, the NIH quietly removed the WIV from a list of foreign facilities that are eligible to receive U.S. taxpayer funds to conduct animal experiments.
end
Covid surge turns into a trickle as hospital admissions wane
(zerohedge)
Yet Another Fear-Mongering COVID Surge Turns Into Trickle As Hospital Admissions Wane
After multiple weeks of increasing COVID-19 hospital admissions, federal data show that the figure is now falling.
In the week ending Sept. 16, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data show hospitalizations are down 4.3 percent. The number had been increasing since July, although the CDC’s historical trends shows that hospitalization numbers were relatively low compared with previous increases in the virus—notably compared with a prior “surge” that occurred in the summer of 2022.
Meanwhile, the latest figures show that emergency department visits are down 19.3 percent and test positivity is down 1.6 percent. Deaths are up by about 12.5 percent, the data show, but that figure is also relatively low when compared with previous years.
The EG.5 variant, which has been dubbed Eris, accounts for about 24.5 percent of all cases, according to the CDC’s variant tracker. FL.1.5.1, known as Fornax, is estimated to be responsible for about 13.7 percent of COVID-19 infections, the CDC figures show.
About a month ago, amid a steady rise in hospitalizations, some health officials suggested that it doesn’t appear to be as bad as before.
“Looking at that graph [of] hospitalizations, even though it’s on an upward trend, that’s still lower than it was last year at this time,” Dr. John Segreti, an epidemiologist and the medical director of infection control and prevention at Rush University Medical Center in Chicago, told ABC News. “The fact that the numbers are going up fairly slowly, I think is a good sign.”
Responding to the figures last month, Dr. Shira Doron, chief infection control officer for Tufts Medicine, said that the recent “upswing is not a surge; it’s not even a wave.”
“What we’re seeing is a very gradual and small upward trajectory of cases and hospitalizations, without deaths really going along, which is great news,” the doctor added.
Last week, the Biden administration announced it would use $600 million to produce new COVID-19 tests that it will send out for free to people who order them via the U.S. Postal Service.
Twelve manufacturers that employ hundreds of people in seven states from California to Maryland have been awarded funding and will produce 200 million over-the-counter tests to replenish federal stockpiles for government use, in addition to producing enough tests to meet demand for tests ordered online, the Department of Health and Human Services said.
Dawn O’Connell, assistant secretary for preparedness and response at HHS, said that though some portions of the public may be tired of the pandemic and its implications, at-home testing remains a key way to slow the spread of new cases.
“Whether or not people are done with it, we know the virus is there, we know that it’s circulating. We know, if past is prologue, it’ll circulate to a higher degree and spread, and cases will go up in the fall and winter seasons,” Ms. O’Connell said. “Anticipating that that would be true again, or something similar, we want to make sure the American people have these tools.”
Mandates?
The publication of the new data comes after a handful of hospitals, county governments, and a small number of schools and colleges mandated mask requirements starting in August. The CDC and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) again recommended new COVID-19 booster shots for anyone aged six months and older earlier this month.
And several Bay Area health agencies in California announced last week that mandatory masking would return to hospitals and health care settings for the fall and winter months.
Contra Costa, Sonoma, Alameda, and San Mateo counties issued mask orders for health care staff in hospitals and other care facilities. The orders start on Nov. 1 and last until April 30, 2024, officials said, citing recent increases in COVID-19, influenza, and other respiratory viruses that are typically commonplace during the colder months, according to statements and local media reports.
“Each year we see that higher rates of influenza, COVID-19 and other respiratory viruses that can cause severe respiratory infections occur annually between late fall and spring,” Dr. Karen Smith, the Sonoma County interim health officer, said in a statement.
Contra Costa Health Services CEO Anna Roth, meanwhile, the Northern California county’s board of supervisors last week that the mandate will be enacted, according to local media reports.
“We are issuing the health order today around masking for high-risk facilities, health care facilities specifically,” Ms. Roth stated, according to a local CBS affiliate station. “So again, masking in hospitals, masking in skilled nursing facilities, masking in high-risk facilities.”
Mask mandates have already been in effect at hospitals in San Francisco. The city is already enforcing year-round masking for health care staffers, visitors, and patients, reported the San Francisco Chronicle. Officials in Santa Clara County, which encompasses much of Silicon Valley, already set a mask mandate back in March.
The House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic just tweeted that it has obtained evidence that Dr. Fauci made an unregistered visit to the CIA’s headquarters to “influence” the intelligence agency’s investigation on the origin of SARS-CoV-2. If this allegation proves to be true, it will add to the mounting evidence that Fauci and his virology…
‘The House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic just tweeted that it has obtained evidence that Dr. Fauci made an unregistered visit to the CIA’s headquarters to “influence” the intelligence agency’s investigation on the origin of SARS-CoV-2. If this allegation proves to be true, it will add to the mounting evidence that Fauci and his virology cronies performed the greatest act of fraudulent concealment in human history.’
Don’t tell the idiots at Health Canada though, no don’t tell that trifector blockhead inept incompetent trio Njoo, Tam, Sharma, what a bunch of reckless technocrats, just plain dumb, makes Jha blush!
Biden Admin Vaccine Advisor Refuses Latest Covid Shot, Warns of Heart Failure Spike Among VaxxedREAD MORE…
LATEST NEWS:
WHO Will Become Unelected Single World Government, Expert WarnsRead more…AI pics show dead celebs as pensioners, but can you guess who they are?Read more…John Fetterman says he’ll suit-up as Senate unanimously adopts formal dress codeRead more…‘You Built This Country’: Trump Praises Autoworkers, Slams Biden’s Electric Vehicle Mandates While Visiting Workers In MichiganRead more…Quintuple shooting rocks Washington DC after ‘100 rounds fired’Read more…WATCH: Autoworkers Chant ‘USA’ When Trump Says That ‘The Future Of The Automobile Will Be Made In America’Read more…Vivek Ramaswamy: ‘Transgenderism, Especially In Kids, Is A Mental Health Disorder’Read more…WATCH: Crowd Groans & Boos When Chris Christie Calls Trump ‘Donald Duck’ For Skipping DebateRead more.
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
“Do You Understand What We Are Saying?”
FRIDAY, SEP 29, 2023 – 11:40 AM
By Teeuwe Mevissen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
The Federal Reserve’s ability to influence the economy depends on whether “people understand what we are saying,” according to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. So did market participants not understand what the Fed was saying for quite some time? Or, more likely, did markets simply not believe the Fed’s narrative for a long time? Looking at yesterday’s sharp movements that seems to be pointing more in that direction. Indeed, yesterday saw markets being confronted with nothing less than a bond sell off. This all despite data that showed that inflation in Europe decreased further and even came out lower than expected. Many reasons for yesterday’s moves were given.
Some pointed towards the oil market where dwindling stockpiles and fears of falling crude supplies globally fanned inflation fears. Others mentioned the looming government shutdown in the US, which our US and Fed strategist Philip Marey has covered for you in his latest special and which can be found here. For those who want the very brief summary. It looks like the government is going into a government shutdown on Sunday. The main reason for that being divisions within the GOP between the House Freedom Caucus and the rest of the Republicans. Then some ‘blamed’ hawkish central bankers like Kashkari and Nagel who clearly left open the possibility for more rate hikes. Yet others claim that the market has finally woken up to the idea that rates are likely to stay higher for longer. In other words they might finally understand what the Fed has been saying. While all of the above likely had some influence on yesterday’s movements, considering the fact that the fed funds future for December 2024 declined last month, the recent moves can also point to a rise in the term premium, which -unfortunately- is a technical construct and could reflect anything, from liquidity premiums to inflation risk premiums AND uncertainty about future policy rates (which, again, may also include a ‘higher for longer’ acknowledgement by market participants, albeit at a longer projection horizon).
Japan has also been hit by a selloff of its government bonds and those bonds are set for the worst quarterly selloff in two decades. But while these securities have lost about 3% during the third quarter, non-Japanese government bonds have slumped no less than 4.6%. Still, the yield on a 10-year Japanese government bond reached the highest level in 10-years at 0.755%. An important reason is that the Bank of Japan did not raise interest rates yet but this also means that, should the BoJ start raising rates next year, Japanese bonds will be under more pressure.
But whatever the reason or reasons, bond holders took a big hit yesterday with long term European and US yields rising 10 basis points or more. Moreover, the spread between 10 year Bunds and 10-year BTP’s also rose to 200 basis points. Today we see a slight reversal in bond yields bringing down both the 10-years EUR swap and the German 10-year bund with 5 basis points at the moment of writing. This brings the yields to 3.40% and 2.87% respectively. Some dovish leaning comments and news about a possible encounter between Biden and Xi seem to have done the trick. Also stocks are recovering a bit today, which is the last trading day of a disappointing third quarter for stock markets.
Today also saw a slew of data coming from Japan. Today’s inflation data showed that inflation was slightly higher in YoY terms than expected (2.8% vs 2.7% expected) while core inflation came out slightly lower than expected. Ex-food inflation stood at 2.5% YoY but ex-food and -energy prices rose 3.8%, meaning that the underlying rate of inflation is still well above 2%. August retail sales also went up 7% YoY although compared to the previous month of July, retail sales only rose with 0.1%. Industrial production remained unchanged compared to the previous month but on an annual base it still reported a decline of 3.8%.
This morning also saw a lot of data coming in from the United Kingdom. Second estimates regarding economic growth over the second quarter of this year showed some interesting revisions. While QoQ GDP growth was still estimated to be 0.2%, the annual growth figure was revised upwards from 0.40% to 0.60%. And while consumption and government spending where lower than initially reported, business investments showed a surprising acceleration rising 4.1% compared to the first quarter of this year. Finally, Germany saw some disappointing retail sales figures showing that consumers spent 1.2% less compared to last month and 1.09% less compared to a year ago. This all reflecting the difficult economic position that Germany finds itself in, the result of a long era of erroneous policies regarding trade, energy and security.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
Russian Ural oil is being sold to India at 80 dollars which is 20 dollars above the price cap but 14 dollars below the official Brent price
India buys this oil with gold purchased at the Shanghai gold exchange
(zerohedge)
Russia Sells Urals Oil To India At $20 Above The Price Cap
Tightening global crude supply and rising international prices have raised the price at which Russia’s crude is being sold to India at about $20 per barrel over the G7 price cap of $60, traders have told Reuters.
The Russian flagship crude grade, Urals, is being sold to one of Moscow’s top customers, India, at nearly $80 per barrel now, or around 30% above the price cap set by the G7 and the EU if Russian crude shipments to third countries outside the EU are to use Western insurance and financing.
Data from traders and Reuters calculations showed that free on board (FOB) Urals cargoes to load from Russia’s western ports on the Baltic Sea in October were nearly $80 a barrel for Indian refiners as of Thursday.
The tightening global supply, especially crudes from the Middle East which have high diesel yields, have made Russia’s Urals more attractive, due to the discount at which the Russian grades trade relative to the international benchmark Brent.
In India, where diesel is the number-one fuel in terms of consumption, Urals is in high demand, despite being much more expensive compared to the first half of this year.
But other similar grades, if available at all, are costlier than Urals.
“Urals prices are on the rise again. Alternatives are much more expensive and not easily available,” one trader with knowledge of the Russian oil market told Reuters.
The price of Urals breached the G7 price cap in July and has averaged well above the ceiling since then.
Urals prices averaged $74 per barrel in August, slightly down from August 2022, but way above the G7 price cap of $60 and higher than the July average of $64.37 a barrel, data released by the Russian Finance Ministry showed in early September.
Between January and August 2023, the average price of Urals was $56.58 per barrel, compared to an average of $82.13 a barrel for the same period of 2022.
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA/
Robert h to us:
Bhandari: Canadians Have Put Canada On A Path To Inevitable Destruction | ZeroHedge
Every Canadian resident should read this and reflect because this affects everyone still living in Canada. And those not living in Canada should note what is happening. It is also why so many Canadians are leaving as the Canada we grew up in is no longer the Canada of today and certainly will not be the Canada it is tomorrow. Over the next decade, one imagines the drivers of economics in Canada will have left.
It really is not different than what is also happening in America and parts of Europe.
Canada’s population grew by more than one million in 2022. This increase was equivalent to 2.7%. Such a rate would double Canada’s population in 26 years.
When I moved to Canada in 2003, its population was 32 million. Today, it is 40 million, an increase of 25%.
Had immigration not occurred, the Canadian population would have fallen, given its fertility rate of 1.47, which itself would have been lower had immigration not occurred. But let us not get into the nitty-gritty when there is an 800-pound gorilla in the room.
For those who don’t have a sense of numbers, more than one out of every four people in Canada arrived after my arrival twenty years back. As it stands today, 26% of Canadians are first-generation immigrants. 18% are second-generation. 32% of children under fifteen in 2021 were second-generation immigrants.
My interest is not to get into statistical nuances but to show that nearly 50% of Canadians are first or second-generation immigrants. And immigration continues to ramp up, most of whom come from the Third World.
Before the early 1970s, most immigrants came from Europe. Today, only 10% of the total immigrants come from Europe.
This matters.
Canada has irrevocably changed in just the two decades since I immigrated. It is said that a frog in a pot that is slowly getting boiled fails to realize that it is getting cooked. But political correctness has meant that Canadians fail to understand what is happening to Canada even when the proverbial pot is heating rapidly.
Last year’s immigrants represented 200 countries of the world, representing 450 different mother tongues. India is by far the most significant source of immigration, accounting for 27% of total immigrants. A distant second is China, with 7%. Third is Afghanistan, with 5.4%. Fourth is Nigeria, with 5%.
Brazil and South Korea have been kicked out of the top ten sources of immigration and replaced by Nigeria and Syria. 38% of immigrants are family sponsorships and refugees.
If these nationalities didn’t shock you, perhaps political correctness has killed your cultural awareness. Indeed, when you stop speaking the truth, you eventually change your thinking. Or maybe you act as if this is nothing material, for you don’t want to be canceled or commit a thought crime.
Western political correctness has metastasized into a puerile understanding of cultures. Even those who can see prefer to make money and maintain their lifestyles, their country houses, the size of their kitchen cabinets, and the schools their kids attend rather than speak up.
Canadians have put Canada on a path to inevitable destruction.
There is no history in human affairs when a society willingly gave itself away to foreigners. There is no history of a society maintaining any values once foreigners overtook it. Indeed, there is no history in human affairs where muti-culturalism and ethnic diversity have not led to massive civil conflicts, but Canadians love romanticizing these anti-values.
Most reading this article haven’t experienced such an increase in immigrants. But your anecdotal experience is not the statistical reality. The composition of people you socialize with does not represent the ethnic proportion of the Canadian population.
Put differently, the new immigrants often get ghettoized in areas you never visit. When you encounter them, your interaction will likely be short and superficial. But they have the same vote as you do. And they have no interest in European values. They are economic migrants without an interest in what provides nutrition to Canadian society. They have, at best, no interest or concept of Western philosophy.
Canada now has massive ghettoes. Visit and soak in the Indian ghettos of Surrey, Brampton, or Richmond to get a sense of proportion and perspective. I mention the Indian ghettos, for I know them better, but you should also visit the Afghani, Syrian, Somalian, etc. ghettoes. If you do, you will realize that Canada is like a train constantly changing its passengers. For most Canadians, the passengers aren’t what they started with.
Recently, Eritrean immigrants fought a pitched battle in Calgary. Khalistan’s posters can now be seen in many places. These don’t leave a lasting impression on native Canadians, but they must.
I provided the statistics, but you must feel, smell, and sense it. You will emotionally realize that Canada is irredeemably on its way to an ethnically non-European majority in a few short years. Should this matter? Of course, it does. None of the 200 countries on the planet is a civilization and has a non-European or non-East Asian majority.
Did I leave India because of its utterly venal and oppressive government? Not really. They are utterly stupid, and bribes take care of everything. But the character of the government is a symptom of the underlying society. It was the Indian society that I ran away from, which has no concept of honor, integrity, moral values, rationality, or interest in anything except the material, which is money and sex.
More precisely, I ran away from Indians.
With time, the institutions the British left behind have been hallowed out in India, and the civilizational constraints that they had imposed have fallen apart. With time, India is bound to become increasingly barbaric and savage. Not because of so much because of the Indian government but because of Indians.
India provides 27% of Canada’s new immigrants.
Most other immigrants come from other Third World hellholes and have similar cultural backgrounds, one rooted in materialism and the absence of civilizational constraints and moral values.
Every Indian city today has at least one high-rise building devoted to housing agencies that help people immigrate to Canada, most offering help creating fake documents or getting admission to colleges structured not for education but for assisting people to stay in Canada long enough to become citizens.
Crazy, isn’t it, that Canada has given itself away to those who faked documents? So much for the much-touted skilled-class immigrants!
Canadians have no choice but to learn about India, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Syria, and other Third World countries. They should all be visiting India and sending their daughters and sons to know about it, for it is what they are bringing in. However, when they send their daughters, they should have male company. They should visit to learn what Europeans of the past understood, the wisdom that political correctness has erased from the Canadian psyche.
A few years back, I went to an Indian event in South Vancouver. As happens in India, nothing worked. There was no coordination. What happened on the stage had nothing to do with the schedule. They played the wrong music. Then, they stopped it and ran around to correct it. Organizers openly argued with each other. They openly talked about how “we” should vote for members of “our Sikh” community in the government. Their swing vote already has a massive influence on the foreign policies of the Liberal and Conservative parties and NDP.
Sometimes, Canadian airports and train stations look indistinguishable from Indian ones, except that you can still get a train ticket without paying a bribe, the ticket-seller treats you respectfully albeit a bit less by each passing day, the trains still operate reasonably well albeit continue to worsen, and you still don’t see cockroaches inside the compartments. But you will get there.
Eventually, trains will collide, killing hundreds; massive forest fires will happen not because of climate change but because of a lack of work ethics, incompetence, and apathy; bridges will fall apart, infrastructure will deteriorate, quality of hygiene will worsen, and nepotism and bribery will become commonplace. But unless you understand this article, you will fail to pinpoint the reason.
You will have to start worrying about female infanticide and female genital mutilation. Caste problems will require you to create legal remedies. Some of these issues are already here, although no official inquiry will blame the cause of accidents on rampant immigration, diversity, inclusivity, and equity.
Hindu-Sikh problems will continue to worsen in Canada, but no one will have the courage to tell them to take their fight to where it belongs: back to India. These idiots will celebrate Indian Independence Day in Canada, utterly forgetful that they got rid of European rule from India and then took all the pains to move to a country ruled by Europeans. But among them, the concept of reason is conspicuous by its absence. They vote on a tribal basis and elect people of their kind, tribe, and religion, setting Canadian institutions’ conversion to what they left behind in motion.
It is a gross mistake to think that people leave their home countries to escape their tyrants. As in North Korea, the real tyrants do not let their people escape. Virtually everyone else is running away from the hellhole they created for themselves. They are part and parcel of the hellhole they left behind. They remake their host country in the image of what they left behind. When you bring them in, you bring the subtle, subliminal ways they will participate in making Canada a hellhole.
Let us delve a bit deeper. Changing culture is not a generation or two-generation process. It is not even a centuries-long process. It is, at best, a millennia-long process. And that is assuming culture is not hardwired.
Civilization is a uniquely Western concept. The Third World, where most Canadian immigrants come from, has no interest in Western values. For them, concepts like honor, honesty, and fairness are alien. They are driven by expediency and the acquisition of resources.
Desperate in their Third World hellhole, it is not the absence of liberty or the rule of law that worries them. They are blind to them. They are only interested in money.
When they arrive, they do not see the existence of Western values. It is only the money-making opportunities that they seek. That is the only thing of value that they see. Given their state of mind, they think that Canada would be a much better place if their religions, rituals, and culture, and indeed tyranny, were to be imposed on Canada.
A senior officer from the Indian government, on an extended visit to the West, told me why he hated the West. He found that the lack of noise and smell made him lonely. His work got done without needing connections, and no one came to prostrate before him. There was no one lining up to meet and greet him. He felt deeply hurt and unrecognized. He didn’t know how to pass his time. He desperately wanted his bank to take longer to do his job and his electricity to stop working so he could use up his time chasing them.
Because they get uprooted from their culture and ecology—which is conducive to their psyche—they learn to despise Canada.
They have no interest in Western values or liberty. They are not running away from tyranny. They like it. They have a visceral hatred for peace and order. I might even add that they find Western values abhorrent.
The more skilled among them, even when they earn million-dollar salaries, vote for the Left. They love the nanny government. Their vote, now inching towards the majority, is increasingly reflected in Canadian politics.
Symbiotic with their absence of values is their failure to have any gratitude they get. Now, put yourself in the shoes of such a person.
They come to the West for nothing else than money. This is irrespective of how much money they make in Canada. They have left the poop smell, the chaos, the noise, and the razzmatazz behind. These things might not be endearing to a native Canadian, but they are the necessary ecology that the immigrant craves. They flourish in them. They left their community, friends, and family to whom they were attached, with their petty tribal quarrels, back stabbings, bitching, and defrauding each other as a necessary part of their existence.
They are unrooted in Canada. They can never get rooted, for they have no interest in Western values or even eyes to see them. They will work towards converting Canada to what they left behind and with a visceral hatred for Canada.
But how do they even convert Canada to what they left behind when there are immigrants from 200 different countries speaking 450 languages, each preferring a different kind of chaos and their type of poop smell, and with active hatred for other immigrant groups?
If you visit Brampton, you might realize that the immigrants there, even after decades of living in Canada, resort to creating poop-smell, noise, and chaos to seek comfort from the existential crisis that Canada otherwise unwittingly imposes on them. This happens even in areas where houses run for millions of dollars.
Given this predicament, assimilation is impossible unless you can trigger a passion among immigrants for Western values. No one has discovered how to activate this.
For a moment, let me go a step further. All my friends from the Third World, who are pro-Western and came to Canada for liberty, took years to feel at home. Simple things like a noise-free car and lack of potholes make them want to puke, for it is disorienting. How could others ever get assimilated?
The situation gets far worse when they live among their very own kind. Eritreans, Ethiopians, Pakistanis, Syrians, Persians, and Afghanis have found their own ghettos, for Canada has enabled enough mass immigration to give each ghetto a critical mass.
Based on faulty, unexamined beliefs, Canada has diluted its population by 100% in just over two generations. Trudeau, not happy with this, is ramping up immigration.
There is another erroneous Canadian belief that assimilation happens with time. It does happen in adopting the low-class hedonistic no-values.
The second-generation immigrants learn to speak English and French and wear Western clothes. But deeper down, contrary to conventional wisdom, the situation worsens. Not that the first generation necessarily had gratitude for the opportunities it got in Canada, but the second generation also finds itself split for the romanticism of the homeland their parents left.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, crime rate increases in the second generation. If you live in Surrey and attend a school dominated by Indians, you must be a part of one of the gangs. That is if you don’t want to be beaten up. In a way, they become more Indian than Indians are in India. The same is true with other immigrants from the Third World.
When you bring people of the Third World, you get the Third World. You convert your society into the Third World.
Alas, even if Canada ended immigration today, it is too late for Canada. It is well on its way to becoming a Third World majority country.
The people of the future will be amused by how, using simplistic, unexamined, faulty myths of multiculturalism and diversity, Canada, which was once a great country, destroyed itself. They will be amused that, afraid of being canceled and to preserve their lifestyles from marauding leftists and wokes, Canadians let their land be ransacked within two generations.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0595 UP 0.0033
USA/ YEN 149.22 DOWN .099 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2255 UP 0.0052
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3431 DOWN .0061 (CDN DOLLAR UP 61 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 3.16 PTS OR 0.10%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 436.63 PTS OR 2.51%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.10% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 436.63 PTS OR 2.51%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.16 PTS OR 0.10%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.35%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 14.90 PTS OR 0.05%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1868.75
silver:$23.09
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 105.54 DOWN 39 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.3015
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2905)
TURKISH LIRA: 27.41 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.745…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 6 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.545% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.662 DOWN 7 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.075 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 22.07 POINTS or 0.29%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 73.73 PTS OR 0.48%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 31.23 PTS OR 0.44%
Spain IBEX UP 8.00 PTS OR 0.08%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 134.38 PTS OR 0.45%
WTI Oil price 90.76 12: EST
Brent Oil: 92.09 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 97.76; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 18//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.8225 DOWN 16 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.465 DOWN 14 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0572 UP 0.0010 OR 10 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2200 DOWN .0003 or 3 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.5015% DOWN 3 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .749%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.45 UP .126 //YEN DOWN 13 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3566 UP .0075 CDN dollar DOWN 75 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 90.85
Brent OIL: 92.26
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 0 BASIS pts to 4.599%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS PTS to 4.728%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT 5.052 %
USA dollar index: 105.89 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.42 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 97.97 DOWN 1 AND 17/100 roubles
GOLD 1849.20
SILVER: 22.20
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 157.49 PTS OR 0.47%
NASDAQ UP 12.48 PTS OR 0.085%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 17.61 UP 0.27 PTS (41.50)%
GLD: $171.45 DOWN 1.78 OR 1.03%
SLV/ $20.34 DOWN 0.40 OR 1.93%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
“Fed’s Last Hike” Triggers Q3 Carnage; Traders ‘Sell All The Things’ In September
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, SEP 29, 2023 – 04:00 PM
The third quarter of 2023 was the first quarter of tightening financial conditions since 2022 with September the biggest monthly tightening of conditions in a year.
And if you’re wondering why? It’s simple, the low came at almost exactly the time of the last Fed hike (July 26)…
Source: Bloomberg
That tightening of financial conditions in Q3 corresponded to a collapse in ‘hard’ data (its biggest quarterly plunge since Q4 2020) while ‘soft’ survey data soared (its biggest quarterly jump since Q1 2020)…
Source: Bloomberg
And that left the dollar higher in Q3, but everything else lower (bonds and bitcoin worst, gold and stocks bad)…
Source: Bloomberg
Since making YTD highs in mid-July (last Fed hike), NDX is down 8 of 11 weeks for a cumulative selloff of 7%. Over the same time frame, US 10-year note yields have risen from 3.79% to 4.58% – probably not a coincidence.
All the majors are in the red to close Q3 with Small Caps the laggard and Dow the prettiest horse in the glue factory…
Source: Bloomberg
September saw losses accelerate after the FOMC meeting…
Source: Bloomberg
The energy sector was the only equity cohort to end the third quarter in the green with Utes and Real Estate the ugliest horse in the glue factory…
Source: Bloomberg
Similarly, September was even uglier overall with Energy managing to hold green but every other equity sector slammed (again led by Utes and Real Estate)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds were battered in Q3 with the long-end yields up over 90bps…
Source: Bloomberg
September was a US bond market bloodbath with the entire curve dramatically higher in yield. The last week has seen the short-end outperform, steepening the yield curve…
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds were battered…globally
US 2s10s inversion dropped to May’s lows
5y US yield highest since 2007
10y US yield highest since 2007
30y US yield highest since 2010
10y German yield highest since 2011
Japan 10y highest since 2013
Japan 20y highest since 2014
Japan 30y highest since 2013
That US 30-year yields extended April 2022’s break out of a downtrend that’s lasted since the 1980s is probably the most significant economic development of the current era.
Rate change expectations for 2023 are basically unchanged for Q3 (green lines) but the expectation for rate-cuts in 2024 (blue line) has fallen dramatically (hawkishly higher expectations for rates)…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar rallied for the second straight month in September to its highest close since Nov 2022. Q3 was the dollar’s first positive quarter since 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Crypto was basically unchanged in September, rallying back in the last couple of days to erase the puke at the end of August. However, While Solana and Ripple outperformed in Q3, Ethereum and Bitcoin were battered, down 10-11%…
Source: Bloomberg
In commodity-land, Q3 was a great one for crude markets. NatGas also gained… but copper and PMs basically went nowhere…
Source: Bloomberg
September was a shitshow across commodities with energy (crude and natgas soaring) while copper (growth) and precious metals (tightening policy) dumped. Silver was clubbed like a baby seal to end the month…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold suffered ‘Death Cross’ this week…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil has extended its gains since its ‘Golden Cross’ in August, trading back at pre-Putin-Invasion levels…
Source: Bloomberg
The massive outperformance of crude over copper pushed it up to historically key resistance level…
Source: Bloomberg
Also, Gold is at its cheapest to crude in a year and also at a key support level…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, the disconnect between real yields and the S&P 500’s P/E valuation came into the month at a noted extreme. And while the index has repriced ~5% lower, real yields increased, too…
Source: Bloomberg
As Powell said at Jackson Hole last year, there’s more pain to come here.
TUCKER CARLSON..
end
II USA DATA
USA banks have a huge 108 billion dollar hole in their bucket. This is the emergency loan facility brought on by the Fed to cover losses due to the higher interest rates which caused bank bond assets to plummet in price. This facility was a temporary swap and must be swapped back in 6 months
(zerohedge)
Banks’ Demands For Fed’s Emergency Funds Remains Near Record Highs As Retail Money-Market Fund Inflows Continue
THURSDAY, SEP 28, 2023 – 04:40 PM
After an unusual outflow last week, US money market funds saw a $6.3BN inflow this week, back up close to record highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Once again, retail funds saw inflows (no outflows since April) of $7.8BN while institutional funds declined $1.5BN…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the second week of institutional outflows as retail inflows send total retail funds to a new record high…
Source: Bloomberg
And the gap between money fund assets and bank deposits continue to grow…
Source: Bloomberg
After last week’s huge drop, The Fed’s balance sheet continued its shrinkage (down $22BN to its smallest since June 2021)…
Source: Bloomberg
With regard to the QT program, The Fed continues to sell securities, down 17.3BN last week to its smallest since June 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Usage of The Fed’s emergency funding facility for banks remains at record highs around $108BN (+$116MN last week)…
Source: Bloomberg
The detailed breakdown is as follows:”
Fed QT: $2.5BN drop in TSY securities; $15BN drop in MBS
Discount Window: up $100MM to $3.2BN
BTFP up $116MM to $107.7BN
Other credit Extensions (FDIC Loans) down $3.1BN to $81.9BN
The spread between US equity market cap and bank reserves at The Fed is starting to converge…
Source: Bloomberg
And finally, as we like to remind readers, there’s an $108BN hole in my bucket… and bank stocks are starting to catch on to the reality that in 6 months, they’ll have to fill it…
Source: Bloomberg
…or The Fed will simply keep the “emergency” facility open ad infinitum under pressure from the administration during an election year.
end
USA citizens savings rate tumbles to one year lows and the core PCE deflator remains high dropping to 3.9%. Goods prices rebound higher.
(zerohedge)
Savings Rate Tumbles To One-Year Lows As Fed’s Favorite Inflation Signal Remains ‘Sticky’ High
FRIDAY, SEP 29, 2023 – 08:45 AM
One of The Fed’s favorite inflation indicators – Core PCE Deflator – slowed to 3.9% YoY in August (its lowest since Sept 2021). Headline PCE jumped up to +3.5% YoY, its highest since May…
Source: Bloomberg
After 3 months of ‘deflation’, Goods prices rebounded strongly in August (up most since June 2022)..
Source: Bloomberg
Even more focused, is the Fed’s view on Services inflation ex-Shelter, and the PCE-equivalent shows that is very much stuck at high levels (ignore the data series, Bloomberg screwed up on revisions)…
Source: Bloomberg
Personal income grew 0.4% MoM and so did Spending…
Source: Bloomberg
But both remain up significantly on a YoY basis…
Source: Bloomberg
Wage growth is slowing:
August Private worker wage growth down to 4.6%, from 4.9% in July and the lowest since March 21
August Govt worker wage growth down to 6.8% from 6.9% in July, and the lowest since May
All of which pushed the savings rate lower (amid numerous revisions once again) to 3.9% of DPI – the lowest in a year…
So ‘stickier’ than expected inflation – driven by a re-emergence of goods inflation – and savings rates shrinking again… Bidenomics, bitches!
END
U. Michigan sentiment sinks in Sept led by inflation expectations rising
(zerohedge)
UMich Sentiment Sinks In September, Inflation Expectations Rise Intramonth
FRIDAY, SEP 29, 2023 – 10:07 AM
With PCE stickier than expected this morning (echoing similar trend sin CPI and PPI last week), expectations for UMich inflation outlooks was for a modest rise from the preliminary September prints, and they did with 1Y rising from 3.1 to 3.2 and 5-10Y rising from 2.7 to 2.8% – but they were both down from August’s levels…
Source: Bloomberg
So sentiment is seeing slowing inflation, but the market is seeing re-acceleration…
Source: Bloomberg
The final print for UMich Sentiment was very slightly better than the preliminary print but was also lower than August – a small decline in consumer expectations over their personal finances was offset by a modest improvement in expected business conditions
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu comments that “Consumers are understandably unsure about the trajectory of the economy given multiple sources of uncertainty, for example over the possible shutdown of the federal government and labor disputes in the auto industry.“
“Until more information emerges about these developments, though, consumers have reserved judgement on whether economic conditions have materially changed from the past few months.”
Finally, we dust off this old analog – when buying conditions for household durables come under pressure, unemployment has tended to rise…
Source: Bloomberg
…except, this time is/was different. Or is the unemployment rate about to start catching UP to reality?
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Interesting: 1/3 of all workers say they would quit or find a new job if asked to return to the offfice
(zerohedge)
A Third Of All Workers Say They’d Quit Or Find A New Job If They Were Asked To Return To The Office
THURSDAY, SEP 28, 2023 – 06:00 PM
If the UAW strikes haven’t proven to you that workers want to do less, for more money, perhaps this new survey will.
A new study published by FinanceBuzz this week revealed that more than 1/3rd of all remote workers would quit or find a new job if they were asked to come back into the office. Has anybody told these coddled millennials that the pandemic – and the buffet of excuses that go with it – is over?
For the survey, FinanceBuzz surveyed 1,000 U.S. adults in August 2023. Only people who indicated they have a remote or hybrid (partially remote, partially in-office) job were allowed to respond, the report says.
Their key findings were:
More than one-third of remote workers (36%) would quit or immediately begin looking for a new job if told they had to return to office.
58% of remote workers are likely or very likely to look for a remote role for their next job.
Compared to 2020, remote workers place increased value on the flexibility to work from anywhere (cited as top perk by 29% in 2020 and 38% in 2023).
25% of remote workers say that flexibility of schedule is the top perk of working from home, down from 31% in 2020.
The percentage of workers that say time with family is the best perk of remote work more than doubled between 2020 and 2023.
For most employees, the crown jewel of remote work appears to be flexibility. According to Finance Buzz’s report, 35% of telecommuters indicated that the freedom to live and work from any location is the most compelling benefit, a shift from being the second most favored perk in a 2020 survey. This surge coincides with the growing allure of the “digital nomad” lifestyle and advances in telecommuting technology.
Coming in second place, 25% of remote workers appreciated the scheduling freedom their jobs provided. This marks a drop from 2020, when 31% cited schedule flexibility as their top perk. While the preferred benefits switched positions between the two surveys, they remained the top two choices, resonating with 60% of respondents collectively.
While telecommuting isn’t without its pitfalls, no single downside stood out unanimously. Difficulties in fostering workplace relationships were mentioned by 41% of respondents, and 40% reported that working from home presented more distractions.
The adoption of remote work has made a lasting impression on the workforce, with many reluctant to revert to a conventional office setting. In fact, 36% of remote workers stated they would prefer quitting their job to relinquishing their work-from-home status. Given this sentiment, it’s hardly startling that 58% of telecommuters are inclined to seek another remote position for their next career move, while a mere 14% would opt otherwise.
Diane Feinstein has died at age 90. Now lets see who Newsome selects as Senator: Lee or Schiff.
(zerohedge)
Senator Dianne Feinstein Dies At 90
FRIDAY, SEP 29, 2023 – 08:40 AM
Senator Dianne Feinstein has died at the age of 90, shortly after her return to Congress following a bout of shingles, according to Punchbowl News‘ Jake Sherman.
Feinstein returned to the Senate in May after a two-month battle with shingles, where she appeared to be unaware of her own extended absence. When a reporter asked him how her colleagues have received her upon her return, she said, “No, I’ve been here. I’ve been voting.” She concluded by scolding the reporter.
In July, Feinstein appeared to be completely lost during a Senate Appropriations Committee session which required staff assistance.
When called on for a simple “aye” or “nay” vote, the 90-year-old launched into a speech supporting the measure. Only after 15 seconds of awkwardness did she heed repeated commands to “just say aye” — instructions issued by both committee chair Patty Murray and one of Feinstein’s staffers.
For more than a year, Feinstein’s mental decline has been chronicled by even the most liberal newspapers. Last year, the Times and San Francisco Chronicle published insider accounts of Feinstein being unable to remember names, meetings and phone conversations. The Times described her as sometimes “walk[ing] around in a state of befuddlement.”
Upon her return, Capitol Hill observers noticed that Nancy Pelosi’s daughter was escorting Feinstein all around the Capitol. The motive is likely more than charitable: Rep. Adam Schiff, a Pelosi ally, wants Feinstein’s seat and desperately wanted her to hang on through the 2024 election.
That’s because California Governor Gavin Newsom has already promised that, in the event of an early Feinstein departure, he would appoint a black woman. One of Schiff’s declared opponents is Rep. Barbara Lee. If appointed, she’d enter the 2024 race with the power of incumbency.
end
UAW
UAW Unleashes “Wave Of Reinforcements” As Strikes Intensify At Ford & GM Amid Strained Talks; Progress Seen With Stellantis
FRIDAY, SEP 29, 2023 – 11:00 AM
United Auto Workers boss Shawn Fain announced Friday morning in a live-stream event that strikes against two of Detroit’s automakers – General Motors and Ford – will be hit by another wave of strikes. The union boss said Chrysler-parent Stellantis had made meaningful progress on a new four-year labor contract and will skirt around additional strikes this week.
Fain said he’s calling on an additional 7,000 workers across Ford and GM to strike at noon. He asked workers at Ford’s Chicago assembly and GM’s Lansing Delta Township to “stand up” and go on strike at 1200 ET.
Fain said expanded strikes would add 7,000 striking workers. At the moment, 12% of the union’s 146,000 workers at the Detroit automakers.
“Our courageous members at these two plants are the next wave of reinforcements in our fight for record contracts,” the union boss said. He added, “We are not calling on additional members at Stellantis to go on strike because moments before this broadcast, the automaker made significant progress on the contract.”
Fain said, “We are excited about this momentum at Stellantis and hope it continues … until then, we will keep building our arsenal of democracy and will win – our strategy is working.”
On Tuesday, Biden joined the picket line in an unprecedented move by a president.
Then a report by Bloomberg disclosed on Thursday that UAW has reduced its pay hike demands from 40% to 30% with automakers over a new four-year labor contract.
END
Life In America Has Never Been More Unaffordable Than It Is Right Now
Our standard of living is being systematically destroyed, but for a lot of years many Americans didn’t fully understand what was taking place because it was happening so slowly. But now we have reached a stage where the purchasing power of our money is collapsing and the cost of living has become exceedingly painful. Thanks to our rapidly rising cost of living, the middle class is becoming “the impoverished class”, and the poor are increasingly being pushed out into the streets. If we do not find a way to turn these trends around, it won’t be too long before we have tremendous societal turmoil on our hands.
Earlier today, I came across an article about a woman that found a receipt from Burger King that was dated August 10, 1986.
At that time you could buy a Whopper for just $1.54.
A woman has been left stunned after discovering a retro Burger King receipt from the 1980s which reveals the staggering price increases that the fast food chain has implemented over the past four decades.
US-based Liza took to social media to share the receipt after her mother found it in a box in the garage while remodeling her home.
The faded paper from the fast food chain dates back to August 10, 1986, and lists three Whopper burgers purchased for $4.62 – which works out at $1.54 each.
A single Whopper burger currently costs $6.79 in today’s money – over four times the price listed on the vintage receipt.
In other words, if you had $6.79 back then, you could buy four whoppers and you would still have money left over.
This is what inflation does.
It destroys our purchasing power.
Another woman named Melanie that makes 34 dollars an hour is so stressed financially that she literally tries to make one loaf of rye bread last her for the entire week…
“What I’ve started doing is I buy a loaf of rye bread, and I work really hard to keep that one loaf of rye bread lasting me the whole week. And I eat peanut butter, so I’ll eat peanut butter toast whenever I’m hungry.”
In the old days, if you were making 34 dollars an hour you were living the high life.
But now most people making 34 dollars an hour are just barely scraping by from month to month.
Of course it isn’t just food that has become absurdly expensive.
At this point, homes in the U.S. have never been more unaffordable than they are right now.
In fact, comparing present prices to levels before the virus panic, St. Louis Fed numbers show a median priced U.S. home rose from $313,000 in the beginning of 2019 to $416,000 today.
With COVID-era protections gone, the number of renters facing eviction in Los Angeles continues to climb by the thousands each month.
From February through the end of August, approximately 50,000 eviction notices were filed by landlords in the city, according to figures released on Monday by the L.A. Controller’s Office.
A spokesperson said 96% of them involve non-payment of rent, and landlords were owed $186.5 million collectively.
Up to this point in 2023, homelessness in the United States has been rising at the fastest pace ever recorded, and a lot more Americans will find themselves without a home between now and the end of the year.
Meanwhile, those that are still scraping by will find it harder and harder to make ends meet.
The average rate of interest on our credit card balances has risen from about 16 percent in February 2022 to more than 22 percent today.
As a result, an increasing number of Americans find themselves unable to keep up with their payments, and it is being reported that credit card losses are rising at the quickest rate since the last financial crisis…
Credit card companies are racking up losses at the fastest pace in almost 30 years, outside of the Great Financial Crisis, according to Goldman Sachs.
Credit card losses bottomed in September 2021, and while initial increases were likely reversals from stimulus, they have been rapidly rising since the first quarter of 2022. Since that time, it’s an increasing rate of losses only seen in recent history during the recession of 2008.
It is far from over, the firm predicts.
More Americans are going bankrupt as well.
In fact, the number of bankruptcy cases in August 2023 was 18 percent higher than it was in August 2022.
Millions upon millions of Americans have been turning to debt in order to keep up with the cost of living, but as economic conditions deteriorate financial institutions are starting to get much tighter with their money.
So we are moving into a time when U.S. consumers will find it much more difficult to take on new debt…
Nearly 60% of the respondents in a New York Fed consumer expectations survey said it’s harder to get credit cards, mortgages and other loans than it was a year ago. It was the highest level since the New York Fed started the data series back in 2013.
Another Fed survey of loan officers reveals their fears aren’t unfounded. Banks reported that lending standards tightened across all consumer loan categories and all categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans. Meanwhile, the number of banks reporting tighter standards for credit cards rose by 36%.
Banks have also significantly tightened standards for business loans.
This is a recipe for disaster.
That is definitely true.
Without a doubt, this is certainly a recipe for disaster.
But there is no going back now.
In fact, the rising price of oil is going to cause enormous inflationary pressures throughout our entire economic system in the months ahead.
“It looks like nothing is going to get in the way of this oil price rally,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, in emailed comments on Tuesday. “Energy traders know a bullish trend when they see one and it will take a lot more than a strong dollar, softer Russian ban, and weakening demand, to disrupt this rally.”
When the price of oil reaches 100 dollars a barrel, that will be painful, but we can handle that.
But the chief executive of Continental Resources is projecting that the price of oil could eventually reach 150 dollars a barrel…
That’s Doug Lawler, chief executive of Continental Resources, the shale-drilling giant controlled by billionaire Harold Hamm, telling Bloomberg News on Monday that crude prices are set to remain elevated and could press to the $120- to $150-a-barrel range without new production.
More price pressure is coming, he said, unless policies are put in place to encourage more output.
If the price of oil reaches 150 dollars a barrel and stays there, it will be an unmitigated disaster for our economy, and the cost of just about everything will jump substantially.
That is because just about everything that we buy and sell has to be transported.
We need cheap energy in order to have a high standard of living, but unfortunately the era of cheap energy is coming to an abrupt ending, and that means that none of our lives will ever be the same again.
I kept warning my readers that a lot of the long-term trends that I have been writing about would catch up with us eventually, and now that time has arrived.
So enjoy the current economic conditions while you still can, because they will soon go from bad to worse.
* * *
Michael’s new book entitled “End Times” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
end
X Shreds Threads As Active Users Hit Record High; Legacy Media Fails To Kill ‘Free Speech’ Platform
By mid-July, a little more than a week after Meta launched Twitter-clone Threads on July 5, we noted (read: here) a startling trend of the keyword “Twitter Killer” being used by corporate press ahead, during, and after launch. This was a coordinated attack – as the corporate press, and now even some in the Biden administration, want to cancel the free-speech billionaire.
Have some in the corporate press given up on their Twitter X attacks?
“It’s okay to admit defeat, especially when something is not working out,” Forbes said this week as Threads has lost a whopping 80% of its users since launch.
And Musk has made it a mission to be that ‘asteroid’ to make legacy, dinosaur media extinct: “I hope people around the world engage in citizen journalism, so we know what’s truly happening and we get real-time, on-the-ground coverage!”
One X user said, “You’d be surprised how many people still don’t notice the bias Let’s give it another year, citizen journalists will continue to expose mainstream media.”
Most Americans understandably favor the Ukrainian resistance against Vladimir Putin’s Russian naked 2022 aggression.
Yet for Ukraine to break the current deadlock – our generation’s Verdun with perhaps 600,000 combined casualties so far – and “win” the war, it apparently must have the military wherewithal to hit targets inside Russia.
Such strategically logical attacks might nevertheless provoke a wounded and unpredictable Russia finally to carry out its boilerplate and ignored existential threats.
From the last 75 years of big-power rivalries, the operational “rules” of proxy wars are well known.
In Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan, Russia supplied America’s enemies – sometimes even sending Russian pilots into combat zones.
Thousands of Americans likely died due to our adversaries’ use of Russian munitions and personnel.
Likewise, Russia lost 15,000 fatalities in its decade-long misadventure in Afghanistan. In part, Moscow’s defeat may have been due to deadly American weapons, including sophisticated Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.
In the bloody decades of these big-power proxy wars, many were fought on or near the borders of Russia or China.
Yet none of these surrogate conflicts of the nuclear age ever led to hot wars between the U.S. and Russia or China.
But Ukraine risks now becoming a new – and different – proxy war altogether.
Never has the U.S. squared off against Russia or China in a conventional proxy war over either’s respective historical borders (whether illegitimate or not).
Neither has Russia nor the U.S. itself ever provided weapons to a proxy belligerent that were used directly inside the respective homeland of either side. They understood superpowers react unpredictably to any third-party who fuels direct conventional attacks on their homelands.
Nobly protecting both Ukraine and Taiwan understandably holds a potential risk of big-power escalation that even Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, and Iraq likely did not.
The U.S. rightly is very sensitive to intrusions of any rival big power near its own borders.
When the Soviets had supplied missiles aimed at the U.S. to its proxy communist Cuba, the Kennedy administration was willing to risk war against Moscow. Indeed, America went to DefCon 2, the second highest level of nuclear readiness.
If all the current 1916-style talk of going into Mexico—ostensibly to stop the cartels from importing drugs over an inert border that kill 100,000 Americans a year—were to be reified, would the U.S. warn Moscow not to supply Mexico or the cartels with weapons or advisors?
The U.S. in 1917 declared war in part because of German interference in our own territorial affairs.
A hacked telegram from German State Secretary for Foreign Affairs Arthur Zimmermann revealed Germany had promised a potential proxy, Mexico, some U.S. territory if it were to join the Central Powers to defeat the Allies. That provocation helped convince enraged Americans to enter World War I.
The 9/11 hit was followed by an immediate American invasion of Afghanistan on the grounds that the third-party Taliban helped terrorists strike our homeland.
Additionally, nowhere in the world has territory been more disputed than in Ukraine.
Seventy-eight years ago, Joseph Stalin’s Russia formally annexed his previously stolen western regions of currently independent Ukraine. The lands were taken mostly from Poland, but also a few parts from Hungary, Romania, and the former Czechoslovakia.
Russia also seized and occupied Crimea in 2014. The peninsula had previously been Russian from 1783-1954.
Yet Crimea was only ceded by Soviet Russia to Soviet Ukraine in 1954 as a political ploy of then Soviet Prime Minister Nikita Khrushchev —himself born near the Ukrainian border.
Khrushchev sought to ensure that a restive Ukraine stayed an integral part of a supposedly eternal Soviet Union by ceremonially including Crimea into one of its own Soviet state’s sub-jurisdictions.
With the fall of the Soviet Union, the short-lived Russian-majority, and independent Republic of Crimea (1992-95), was annexed by the newly independent Ukraine.
It then remained part of the Ukrainian nation for 19 years until the 2014 invasion.
Why Putin for a third time dared invade Ukraine is obfuscated by contemporary domestic politics.
He likely enacted his irredentist agenda of restoring the borders of the former Soviet Union in 2008, 2014, and 2021, because he gambled—correctly—that the Bush, Obama, and Biden administrations could not successfully oppose his serial annexations.
Equally forgotten were the policies of the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations regarding the 2014 Russian annexation of the Donbas and Crimea. Prior to the February 24, 2022 Russian attack on Kyiv, none of the three had ever sought to force Russia to give up either the borderlands or the Crimea.
The Obama administration’s disastrous 2009-2014 Russian “reset” appeasement policy, the 2015-16 Russian collusion hoax, and the humiliating American skedaddle from Kabul also convinced Putin that America either would not or could not oppose his 2022 invasion.
America should help Ukraine resist Russian aggression. But we should be mindful in doing so that the entire region is an historical Gordian Knot of poorly understood but ancient intertwined and competing threads—one that may risk being cut by a Russian nuclear sword.
end
USA// COVID//VACCINE/
Doorknob: Biden tells people to stop questioning COVID shots
(Watson/SummitNews)
Watch: Biden Tells People To Stop Questioning COVID Shots
In remarks made Wednesday, Joe Biden argued that people, including potential “leaders” should stop saying “inflammatory things” about COVID vaccinations and fall into line with what his administration is telling them to do.
“What leaders say matter, in terms of people’s confidence in things they’re not sure about,” biden began.
He continued, “And one of those areas — you saw what happened with regard to the crisis — health crisis that we had that cost us — we lost well over a million people. And as time began to move on, you had more and more voices saying, “No, no, no. You don’t need to get that shot. You don’t need to be — get — you don’t need to.”
“We have a new strain of COVID now, and we have answers for it,” Biden contended, further stating “I just would urge those in public life and both political parties or no political party to be cautious about the ac- — the sometimes inflammatory things you say about this, because people’s lives are at stake.”
That will be the COVID shots that don’t prevent anyone from getting COVID or stop transmission of the virus then will it? The ones that cause more serious side effects in children than they do save lives?
The comments come in the wake of revelations that Anthony Fauci was secretly escorted into CIA and State Department meetings to steer the direction of the COVID origins investigation away from the lab leak evidence. end
end
SWAMP STORIES.
The New York case is total nonsense!
(EpochTimes)
Explaining The $18 Million Mar-a-Lago Valuation By NY Trump Case Judge
Former President Donald Trump and two of his sons have criticized a New York judge for suggesting his Mar-a-Lago Palm Beach resort is worth between $18–28 million.
“If Mar-a-Lago is worth $18 million … I’ll take 10 (Mar a Lagos) please!!!” Donald Trump Jr., an executive vice president of Trump Organization, wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Judge Arthur Engoron implied the market value of the property in a Sept. 26 summary ruling that found President Trump’s business empire liable for fraudulently inflating property values in loan paperwork. He revoked the Trump Organization’s business licenses in the state and ordered it dissolved.
President Trump’s lawyers argued that the banks providing the loans didn’t care about the valuations produced by the company because they do their own. All the loans have or are being properly repaid with interest, they noted. The judge ruled, however, that under New York law the state can sue for inflated property values even if nobody was harmed by them.
Mar-a-Lago was overvalued by “at least 2,300%” because the Palm Beach County Assessor assigned it a market value of $18 million to $27.6 million between 2011–2021, while the Trump Organization valued it at $426,529,614–$612,110,496 on its Statements of Financial Condition (SFC) in those same years, the judge said.
There are problems with using either of the valuations.
The county’s website says that “the estimate of Total Market Value is for tax assessment purposes only” and “the Total Market Value estimate may be less than the actual market value of the property.”
Meanwhile, the SFCs include a disclaimer that the asset values are “determined by Mr. Trump in conjunction with his associates and, in some instances, outside professionals” and “the estimates presented herein are not necessarily indicative of the amount that could be realized upon the disposition of the assets or payment of the related liabilities.”
President Trump referred to the disclaimer as a “worthless clause,” saying it indicated to him that the documents were more an enumeration of his assets, rather than their actual market valuation.
The judge rejected that reasoning, arguing the disclaimer is itself “worthless” as a defense because it “does not use the words ‘worthless’ or ‘useless’ or ‘ignore’ or ‘disregard’ or any similar words.”
The actual market value of Mar-a-Lago is unclear.
President Trump’s lawyers presented a real estate expert, Lawrence Moens, “who they purport is ‘the most accomplished and knowledgeable ultra-high net worth real estate broker in Palm Beach, Florida,’” the judge said.
“His dominance of one of the country’s richest real estate markets is total,” a 2022 Real Deal profile of the secretive realtor said, noting that he closed perhaps $1 billion worth of deals in just the 18 months of the COVID-19 pandemic real estate mania.
Valuing Mar-a-Lago at $425 million–$612 million was “appropriate and indeed conservative,” Mr. Moens told the court. The property is currently worth $1.51 billion, he opined.
The judge rejected the opinion as “speculative” and made as “without relying on any objective evidence.”
The property isn’t currently for sale and the family has indicated it doesn’t plan to ever sell it, according to the Trump family.
The 62,500-square-foot mansion built in 1927 in the style of Mediterranean palaces with splendid Art Deco interiors sits on 20 acres of pampered property spanning the width of Palm Beach.
President Trump put the resort under a conservation easement in 2002 that prohibits him from further developing it or changing its use from a social club. In exchange, he pays lower taxes on it.
President Trump’s personal valuations of the property didn’t reflect these restrictions the judge argued, without explaining what the property should have been properly valued at, save for the county assessor’s reference.
While restricted use may deter some buyers, Mr. Moens told the court that, if for sale, he could “in short order … produce a ready, willing and able buyer who would have interest in securing the property for their personal use as a residence, or even, their own club.”
“I could dream up anyone from Elon Musk to Bill Gates and everyone in between. Kings, emperors, heads of state,” he said.
Moreover, President Trump’s lawyers noted that there are legal avenues for breaking through the restrictions.
The judge picked on Mr. Moens’s word choice, saying that “obviously, this Court cannot consider an ‘expert affidavit’ that is based on unexplained and unsubstantiated ‘dreams.’”
“The real estate circles in Florida are laughing at this foolishness,” commented Eric Trump, President Trump’s son and also an executive vice president at his company, in an X post.
He pointed to real estate listings from the area showing homes ranging 5,000–11,500 square feet and farther from the beach than Mar-a-Lago listed at prices up to $40 million.
The civil suit was brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James targeting the former president as well as his sons Mr. Eric Trump and Mr. Donald Trump Jr.
The judge so far ruled on one part of the suit dealing with allegations of overvalued properties. Other parts of the suit are scheduled for a non-jury trial starting on Oct. 2.
Ms. James is asking for penalties of $250 million, as well as removing the three defendants from their posts in the company and barring them from holding executive posts in New York State.
President Trump as well as his sons denounced the case as politically motivated.
“Today, I lost all faith in the New York legal system,” Mr. Eric Trump said. “Never before have I seen such hatred toward one person by a judge—a coordinated effort with the Attorney General to destroy a man’s life, company, and accomplishments.”
“We have run an exceptional company—never missing a loan payment, making banks hundreds of millions of dollars, developing some of the most iconic assets in the world. Yet today, the persecution of our family continues,” he wrote.
President Trump is also facing several other civil suits as well as four criminal indictments in New York, Florida, the District of Columbia, and Georgia.
END
After defunding the police, DC mayor Bowser begs for more officers
(zerohedge)
Murder Crisis Plagues DC As Mayor Begs For More Officers After ‘Defunding Police’
THURSDAY, SEP 28, 2023 – 08:00 PM
How it started.
How it’s going?
D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser, a former supporter of the ‘defund the police’ movement, urgently calls for increased policing as the nation’s capital faces an out-of-control murder crisis.
“What I can say is this: To me, numbers are just numbers. When we lose one person — whether it’s one or 200 — that’s too many,” Bowser said at a press conference earlier this week.
Of course, Bowser, like many Democrat mayors, blames firearms as the issue, deflecting any possibility her disastrous social justice reforms only embolden criminals – while punishing law-abiding taxpayers -across the imploding Washington, DC metro area.
For the first time in a quarter-century, the year’s homicide toll in Washington has surpassed 200 before October — a mark of surging violence that has angered and distressed local leaders, drawn scrutiny from Congress and made some residents question whether they can safely live in the nation’s capital.
WaPo added:
The last time D.C. logged its 200th homicide before October was Aug. 12, 1997, in a year that ended with 303 people slain, according to police data. After that, annual totals generally trended downward, staying below 200 from 2004 to 2020, with a low of 88 in 2012. But the killing pace has picked up again, reaching 226 in 2021.
Heading into the 2024 presidential election cycle, Democrats will never admit their social justice reforms have failed. They conveniently blame guns.
Directly north of D.C. lies another crime-ridden metro area: Baltimore City. And this week, mass looting was seen in Philadelphia. And just north of Baltimore and Philadelphia, New York City’s progressive mayor recently warned of financial ruins due to a migrant crisis.
Democrats have transformed cities into absolute messes.
Earlier this week, Kentucky GOP Sen. Mitch Glitch McConnell said, “Providing assistance for Ukrainians to defeat the Russians – that’s the number one priority of the United States right now – according to most Republicans.”
WATCH: Mitch McConnell claims the “number one priority” of “most Republicans” is aid to Ukraine.
On Thursday, Elon Musk asked on X: “Why do so many American politicians from both parties care 100 times more about the Ukraine border than the USA border?”
Why do so many American politicians from both parties care 100 times more about the Ukraine border than the USA border?— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 29, 2023
Musk asks such a question because, in recent weeks, the southern border crisis has once again erupted in chaos (read: here & here), primarily in Eagle Pass, Texas. And at the same time, the corporate media and the Biden administration downplay the massive influx of illegals into the US.
It’s a total free for all in Eagle Pass right now. Mass illegal crossing taking place for over an hour and a half. Almost 2 years to the day we saw 15,000+ Haitians under the bridge in Del Rio, we now have thousands of predominantly Venezuelans gathering under Eagle Pass bridge. pic.twitter.com/VkfUQnexGZ— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) September 20, 2023
BREAKING: An emergency declaration has been issued in Eagle Pass, Texas after a surge of migrants invaded the southern border.
The declaration was made by Eagle Pass mayor Rolando Salinas after over a thousand migrants crossed the border.
In a search for truth, the world’s richest man encouraged millions of his followers to become citizen journalists to uncover and share the truth about what’s happening not just at the border but across the nation while corporate media and political elites in Washington, DC, ‘distract, pretend, and divide’ Americans.
I hope people around the world engage in citizen journalism, so we know what’s truly happening and we get real-time, on-the-ground coverage! https://t.co/m78rUDzpQl— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 29, 2023
Musk recorded a livestream on X at the Eagle Pass border crossing on Thursday evening to show “What’s really going on.” We previewed days ago that Musk was planning to visit the border.
Besides some right-leaning media outlets, there has been a blackout of news coverage by the corporate press about the latest border crisis flare-up. Musk’s mission on the border yesterday was to show how X can be a powerful tool to share real-time coverage about what’s really happening on the ground that entirely bypasses legacy and dying corporate media outlets.
Musk’s reporting of the border crisis on X doesn’t stop with his livestream. He quoted another post showing illegals crossing the border while saying: “The border crisis is worse every day! New York City is buckling under the load already.”
And he commented, “!!” on another post that shows some stunning data about the number of illegals the Biden administration has allowed to pour into the country.
Meanwhile, an MSNBC host was triggered by Musk’s reporting of the border: “Why does the world’s richest businessman sound like a MAGA bot, spewing out automated right-wing talking points?”
Why does the world’s richest businessman sound like a MAGA bot, spewing out automated right-wing talking points? https://t.co/6MQqxcAfCn— Mehdi Hasan (@mehdirhasan) September 29, 2023
Since when is reporting reality a “MAGA bot, spewing out automated right-wing talking points”? Yet more evidence the corporate press does not want the majority of Americans to understand the truth while they divide and conquer the populace.
Musk is correct: If you want to defeat the corporate press – become a citizen journalist and utilize the First Amendment. We all have smartphones. It’s very easy.
end
Details on the Biden impeachment inquiry..breaking down the evidence
(Techno Fog/The Reactionary)
The Biden Impeachment Begins: Breaking Down The Evidence
Yesterday began what we might unofficially call the start of the impeachment of President Joe Biden. Or, as announced by the House Oversight Committee: the hearing on The Basis for an Impeachment Inquiry of President Joseph R. Biden, Jr.
For the more zealous among us, there is pressure to get on with it already. Start the proceedings, get the votes, and see what happens. A fair position, but we’re not there yet. The evidentiary record is not yet complete.
Thus, the “impeachment inquiry” is an essential investigative step, one which will require the testimony of scores of witnesses and numerous subpoenas for travel records, business and shell company records, bank records, and communications targeted at the Biden family and their business associates. Representative James Comer already has at least some of the investigation already planned; today he announced he is issuing subpoenas for Hunter Biden’s and James Biden’s personal and business bank records.
That wasn’t an empty promise. Yesterday evening, Comer “issued three subpoenas for Hunter and James Biden’s personal and business bank records.”
That’s where it should get juicy. The Biden family and their shell companies received over $15 million from 2014-2019. Their business associates, many of whom served as pass-throughs for the Biden family’s profits, received over $9 million. Where did all that money go?
To answer that question, there is perhaps the most important category of records investigators still need to obtain: the financial records of Joe Biden. Undoubtedly the Republicans will obtain those records as the investigation proceeds.
From there we might finally get confirmation to the admission of Burisma’s founder and CEO, who admitted to paying millions to Hunter Biden and Joe Biden – while Joe was the Vice President of the United States: “it cost 5 (million) to pay one Biden, and 5 (million) to another Biden.”
More broadly, the intensification of the investigation relates to the need to further prove the conspiracy and criminal access-operation among the Bidens – Joe, Jim, and Hunter. Not that the evidence isn’t there. It certainly is. But impeachment is about getting votes from politicians hostile to accountability and convincing an American public of its necessity.
In other words, the inquiry must be deliberate and exhaustive, pursuing every investigative lead and interviewing every witness and getting every document. Think of the House as a type of special grand jury, assigned to investigate a matter of paramount importance. After all, this is one of the most important public corruption cases in American history.
Onto today’s House Oversight hearing, which featured three witnesses on behalf of the House Majority. The testimony of each is briefly summarized below.
Bruce Dubinsky, CPA, a forensic accountant and certified fraud examiner. Dubinsky is a world-class expert in complex financial fraud, especially where – as is the case with the Bidens – the perpetrators utilize shell companies and otherwise complex structures used to mask the source and distribution of funds. He has “investigated some of the world’s largest frauds.” This included the investigation of Bernie Madoff’s $65 billion Ponzi scheme (the largest in history), where he testified for the US government.
Dubinsky helped lay-out some of the most important questions that need further evidentiary support: why the Bidens were receiving million from foreign entities and individuals; why the Bidens used a complex web of shell companies; whether the money was fair market value for the alleged services rendered; and whether political favors were disguised as services. We note that the answers to many of these questions are in the public records released via the Hunter Biden laptop and Congressional investigations, there is no doubt there is significantly more to uncover.
Eileen J. O’Connor, Esq. led the DOJ’s Tax Division from 2001-2007 and has decades of working with tax administration and enforcement. She testified during the Hunter Biden investigation, “leads and procedures that would have been followed in any other case were thwarted. These included:
The denial of searches requested by IRS criminal investigators of Joe Bidens’ Delaware guest house and Hunter Biden’s storage facility, where probable cause existed to believe documents relevant to the criminal investigation existed.
The denial of interview requests of Hunter Biden family members and associates, including those which would have explained “10% held by H (Hunter) for the big guy.”
The sabotage of investigative steps to determine Joe Bidens’ presence – allegedly next to Hunter – while Hunter shook down a Chinese businessman.
O’Connor further detailed the necessity to investigate the investigators – those who allowed the statute of limitations on Hunter’s financial crimes to expire and why other criminal charges were not pursued.
Finally, Jonathan Turley testified to the public allegations of Joe Biden’s corruption that warranted a full investigation: (1) his lies about foreign dealings with his family; (2) the fact that he was the target (if not a cooperating figure) “of a multimillion-dollar influence peddling scheme”; and (3) that Joe Biden “may have benefitted from this corruption through millions of dollars sent to his family as well as more direct possible benefits.”
More Insight into the Biden Family’s Corruption
Accompanying the impeachment inquiry has been the release of newly public documents that further prove the corruption of the Biden family and bolster the purpose of this investigation. For example, a large set of records were provided yesterday by the House Ways and Means Committee, including transcripts of witness interviews (including Hunter’s business associates and prostitutes), summaries of the recommended tax charges against Hunter Biden, and e-mails and documents proving the obstructive steps taken by the DOJ.
While much of it confirms what has already been reported, or provides context or proof of allegations of DOJ misconduct with respect to the Hunter investigation, of note from those records was this 2018 text from Hunter Biden to Jim Biden. In the message, Hunter says Jim was “drawn into something purely for the purpose of protecting Dad.”
Why former Vice President Biden needed protection, and why Hunter and James were drawn into providing that protection, are good questions.
Here’s the answer.
In March of 2018, James Biden was seeking access to the $1 million retainer that Hunter was owed for providing “legal services” to corrupt Chinese businessman Patrick Ho. (Note: Hunter did not, in fact, provide legal services.)
On March 21, 2018 – the same date as the text – James Biden “wrote to CEFC [China Energy] officials with ‘wiring instructions,’ providing the address and routing numbers for how to transfer” the $1 million to an account linked to Hunter Biden.
The next day, on March 22, 2018, the money was wired.
German inflation fell to two-year low in September due to energy inflation tumbling from 8.3% to 1%. German CPI was the expected 0.3% m/m; Y/y CPI fell to 4.5% from 6.1%; 4.6% was expected. German Harmonized CPI fell to 4.3% y/y from 6.4%; 4.5% for September was consensus. M/m Harmonized CPI retreated to 0.2$ rom 0.4%; 0.3% m/m was consensus.
The usual suspects tried to force stocks higher early on Thursday to game Q3 performance. However, Mr. Bond once again was angry. USZs were -1 6/32 at 9:45 ET. Mr. Bond ignored Obamaite and Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee’s dovish remarks. Perhaps, Goolsbee’s dovish comments angered Mr. Bond!
Goolsbee argued that economic history regarding inflation and employment should be ignored because the post-Covid environment is different than other periods. The old “it’s different this time” gambit!
Fed’s Goolsbee Says Too Much Weight on Past May Cause Overshoot – BBG 9:02 ET “We need to be extra careful about indexing policy to this traditional view of what the incoming data on output and the labor market mean for the inflation outlook.”… (Now do US debt & spending, Austan!)
@KansasCityFed: As higher wages have tightened margins for healthcare service providers, PCE inflation for healthcare services is likely to increase. (Calling Dr. Goolsbee, Dr. Howard, Dr. Fine) https://t.co/Ypo7fQzPp9
If you’re looking for a scary Halloween costume for Street soirees, consider going as Mr. Bond.
US Q2 GDP was revised to 2.1% from 2.2% as expected. Consumption sank to 0.8% from 1.7%. GDP was boosted by the decline in the GDP Price Index to 1.7% from the prior and expected 2%. Core PCE was the expected and prior 3.7%. US households savings were revised $1.1 trillion LOWER over the past six years. Full report: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-09/gdp2q23_3rd.pdf
@Lavorgnanomics: The economy is fundamentally weak. Real GDI grew only 0.6% annualized in the first half of this year and is up only 0.2% from 4 quarters earlier.
US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 204k from 202k; 214k was expected. No sign of recession here!
USZs trade modestly higher but flat during Nikkei trading. They rallied a tad after the Nikkei’s 1 ET close, but hit a peak of 113 31/32 at 1:35 ET. USZs then sank to 112 31/32 at 7:39 ET. A rebound to 113 20/32 at 8:35 ET appeared. USZs then sank to a low of 112 10/32, -1 6/32, at 9:45 ET. Q3 performance then manipulated USZs to 113 26/32 at 11:51 ET. After a retreat to 113 6/32 at 13:46 ET, the usual suspects manipulated USZs to 113 29/32 at the NYSE close.
ESZs vacillated in a wide range from the Nikkei opening – and the range expanded at 8:28 ET – until Q3 performance gamers manipulated ESZs from 4305.50 at 10:30 ET to 4355.50 at 12:30 ET. After a drop to 4327.50 at 14:37 ET, another manipulation appeared. ESZs hit 3251.00 at 15:26 ET. But too many traders played for the manipulation! ESZs slid 4332.50 and traded sideways into the NYSE close.
Conflict between Q2 performance gamers and organic sellers scared by Mr. Bond caused the volatility.
Positive aspects of previous session. Blatant manipulation to game Q3 performance boosted stocks and bonds Fangs led the Q3 manipulation effort because they are the most over-owned stocks Gasoline and oil declined sharply
Negative aspects of previous session The usual manipulation for quarter’s end has been only marginally effective
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How large are the unrealized debt instrument losses at major financial institutions?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4293.78 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4317.27; 4264.38
TX Gov. Greg Abbott trying to lure CME out of Chicago CME and other Chicago-based firms have complained about a pickup in violent crime since the pandemic as well as potential tax increases floated by the mayor. “I actually have approached the CME,” Abbott said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg Television… “There are some businesses in Chicago that are fed up.”… https://www.chicagobusiness.com/politics/texas-will-welcome-chicago-firms-greg-abbott-says
Today is the end of Q3 and a Friday. The usual suspects want and NEED to push stocks and bonds higher to embellish sickly Q3 performance. Going into Thursday’s session: TLT, the iShares 20-year Treasury ETF, was -14% for Q3. IEF, the 7 to 10-year Treasury ETF, was -5.5% for Q3; the S&P 500 Index was -2.98%; and the NY Fang+ Index was -6.6%. Over-owned Fangs desperately need help!
ESZs are -2.50 and USZs are +6/32 at 20:20 ET.
Expected econ data: Aug Personal Spending 0.0% m/m, PCE Deflator 0.5% m/m & 3.5% y/y; PCE Core 0.2% m/m & 3.9% y/y; Sept Chicago PMI 47.6; Sept UM Sentiment 67.7, Current Conditions 69.8, Expectations 66.4%, 1-year Inflation 3.2%, 5-10 year Inflation 2.8%; NY Fed Pres Williams 12:45 ET
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4458; 100-day MA: 4385; 150-day MA: 4270; 200-day MA: 4198 DJIA 50-day MA: 34,765; 100-day MA: 34,277; 150-day MA: 33,880; 200-day MA: 33,810 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3814.46 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4586.76 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4369.94 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4275.19 triggers a sell signal
In their defense of The Big Guy, House Dems invoked Rudy Giuliani and Trump. Most also tried to gaslight Americans by saying The Big Guy is only guilty of loving his son. One Dem said Hunter is an unreliable witness due to his coke habit. You can’t make this up!
@paulsperry_: CNN, MSNBC and the Big 3 TV networks have all blacked out coverage of today’s Biden impeachment inquiry, only the fourth presidential impeachment inquiry in U.S. history — in stark contrast to their wall-to-wall coverage of the 2019 Trump impeachment inquiry
@paulsperry_: House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner this morning described the classified materials recovered from Biden’s home and private office as “of the highest level of concern and threat to national security.”
New Hunter Biden texts show him complaining about not being able to ‘pay alimony or for food or gas without dad’https://t.co/8TxFtHF7uB
@mirandadevine: #impeachmentinquiry has just released this WhatsApp message from Hunter Biden to his uncle Jim: “you’ve been drawn into something for the purpose of protecting Dad“. https://twitter.com/mirandadevine/status/1707429448960684125
@tristanleavitt: From one of the witnesses at today’s @GOPoversight hearing, former DOJ Tax Assistant Attorney General Eileen O’Connor: “If he willfully filed a false return, the statute of limitations isn’t enough to get him off the hook…Now go collect the taxes.” https://t.co/LZVCbMVENX
Conventional wisdom regarding the GOP Presidential Debate on Wednesday night: DeSantis won; Haley was argumentative and snide, some pundits said she was as likeable as Hillary; Gov Burgum did well; Christie assailed Trump and Trump sycophant Ramaswamy who regularly praised DJT; Haley and Sen. Scott argued about curtails, see link. https://twitter.com/townhallcom/status/1707228714885374070
@PhilipWegmann: GOP primary debate ends with Ramaswamy extolling virtues of Trump & Trumpism.
@MZHemingway: Nikki Haley helped herself in the first debate but is sabotaging herself in this debate with her aimless petulance. Just seems like reckless anger against everyone.
@AnnCoulter: Nikki Haley tried to steal thisline from Billy Madison, but blew it, and ended up saying she was dumb compared to Vivek. (True.)https://t.co/fCZzfFOnxD Man, Nikki is annoying.
@simonateba: Donald Trump blasts Chris Christie for nicknaming him “Donald Duck”, tells Fox News Digital, “”Anybody that would come up with that nickname shouldn’t be running for president.” The Internet also nicknamed Christie ‘Porky Pig’https://t.co/nGfd8bmegj
So, the guy that can dish out derogatory nicknames 24/7 cannot take a derogatory nickname.
@kylamb8: Ron DeSantis just challenged Donald Trump to a one-on-one debate. DeSantis: “He’s had a lot to say about me on social media. It’s easy to say it from behind a keyboard. Step up on stage and do it to my face.
@theblaze: Tim Scott: “If you look at my office in the Senate, my chief of staff is the only Hispanic femalechief of staff in the Senate.”https://twitter.com/theblaze/status/1707227117476290954 @AuronMacintyre: The GOP pretends to decry identity politics but rushes to engage in them at any opportunity. They’re of course very careful to only pander to groups that the left has approved…
The biggest loser was the Fox debate hosts (particularly Dana Perino). They asked inane, trivial questions like: ‘who would you vote off this ‘island’. The Fox Hosts regularly lost control of the debate.
@VicToensing: Terrible @FoxNews (Business) debate. Panel cannot control candidates. Everyone talking over each other. Also, stupid questions. Like, how are you going to control certain educational issues, when education is state not federal issue. Also, who is voted off island? Really
@megynkelly: Beneath the dignity of a presidential debate
@bennyjohnson: Last night the RNC tapped Univision— a channel whose mandate is to be a more brainwashed version of MSNBC in Spanish— to CO-MODERATE the GOP debate. Here are public Secret Service logs showing their moderator, Ilia Calderón, making MULTIPLE visits to the Biden White House… Either the RNC didn’t bother to do basic research or they purposefully RIGGED their debate against their own candidates and voters. The RNC is an absolute disgrace. https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1707500869527216147
@CollinRugg: This week, Gavin Newsom sat down with 60 Minutes, showed up to the GOP debate, dismissed it as a VP debate, called DeSantis a fool for accepting his debate offer, then stole the show with a post-debate interview with Fox Host Sean Hannity. I don’t know who needs to hear this but Gavin Newsom is running, most likely in 2024.
@CollinRugg: New York City is now calling on *all* residents to carry Narcan with them at all times as the city’s drug crisis continues to spiral out of control. Life didn’t have to be this way, NYC. The NYC Health Department made the announcement as one New Yorker is dying every three hours from an overdose. Narcan is known for reversing overdoses. “No one is spared, even if you think otherwise. If you use drugs, know someone who is using drugs, or might be around drug use, there are simple steps we can take. First, everyone should carry naloxone, get trained to use it and to recognize the signs of overdose,” said Health Commissioner Ashwin Vasan. https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1707149676062142774 @Jkylebass: I think Malthus would have this right.
@EndWokeness: Kenneth Frye was arrested for looting in Philadelphia on Tuesday night. Turns out, Kenneth Frye also beat a man to death last year but was let out on bail by Soros-funded DA Larry Krasner. https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1707441779652374620
The Signature Room, the restaurant located on the 95th floor of the John Hancock Center, (Iconic Chicago restaurant) will be closing.https://t.co/7Ql04R2A1k
@John_Kass Chicago’s iconic Signature Room closes citing “economic” reasons, meaning people with $$ avoid downtown. Chicago criminals have no comment and pro-Soros lefty Democrats don’t demand to hold a news conference
Family calls for justice after 11-year-old Chicago girl brutally beaten in Lawndale Her family said they are being threatened for reporting the attack… and police did not respond to their calls for help in a timely manner… https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/chicago-girl-hate-crime-beating
Fan denied entry into Phillies game after trying to bring in emotional support alligator (OMG!) https://trib.al/91c7mJO
@robbystarbuck: Ages of Founding Fathers in 1776: James Monroe, 18; Aaron Burr, 20; John Marshall, 20; Alexander Hamilton, 21; James Madison, 25; Benjamin Rush, 30; John Jay, 30; Thomas Jefferson, 33; Thomas Paine: 39 (Compare to Pelosi, Feinstein, McConnell, Biden et al)
‘W’ Bush Press Sec @AriFleischer: Enter the Capitol on January 6th and you’re guilty of a felony resulting in years in prison. Actually attack a GOP candidate for office and you get a misdemeanor. Is it any wonder many have concluded the system is stacked and Justice isn’t blind?https://t.co/lZUFSMsY99
Fauci and the CIA: A New Explanation Emerges The CIA pays scientists to say there was no lab leak and otherwise instructs its kept media sources (New York Times) to call the lab leak a conspiracy theory of the far right. Every measure would be deployed to keep Fauci off the hot seat for his funding of the Wuhan lab… Fauci would need to participate in a real-life version of the germ games (Event 201 and Crimson Contagion)… He would need to throw out his principles and medical knowledge of, for example, natural immunity and standard epidemiology concerning the spread of viruses and mitigation strategies. The old pandemic playbook would need to be shredded in favor of lockdown theory as invented in 2005 and then tried in Wuhan… Fauci would need to be on TV daily to somehow persuade Americans to give up their precious rights and liberties… He would need to convince Trump to go along. That was the hardest part. They considered Trump’s weaknesses. He was a germaphobe so that’s good. He hated Chinese imports… What does the CIA get out of this? The vast intelligence community would have to be put in charge of the pandemic response… The CIA would hobble and hamstring the US president, whom they hated. And importantly, there was his China problem. He had wrecked relations through his tariff wars. So far as they were concerned, this was treason because he did it all on his own. This man was completely out of control. He needed to be put in his place. To convince the president to destroy the US economy with his own hand would be the ultimate coup de grace for the CIA… If this whole scenario is true, it means that all along Fauci was merely playing a role, a front man for much deeper interests and priorities in the CIA-led intelligence community… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fauci-and-cia-new-explanation-emerges
President Trump won the Republican debate this week without showing up. This is according to a Daily Mail poll after the GOP debate that Trump stayed away from. Meanwhile, Trump’s business license has been revoked in New York by a judge to punish him for fraud BEFORE a case being brought by the NY Attorney General Letitia James. Trump is appealing that ruling and going to court in New York on the NY fraud case on October 2nd.
Joe Biden is facing impeachment in the House of Representatives. The Democrat talking point: “There is no evidence.” Of course, just the opposite is true. There is plenty of evidence that Biden and many in his family took secret money from foreign sources. In other words, Joe Biden and family took bribes according to the Republicans on the impeachment committee. They are also calling what Biden and his family did was treason. We will see if there will be a conviction and removal from office when this hits the Senate.
Ukrainian soldiers are surrendering by the thousands in Ukraine since the beginning of summer. 10,000 have reportedly turned themselves over to Russian forces rather than being turned into hamburger. 400,000 to 500,000 Ukraine military have been killed in action during the nearly 2-year war. 80,000 reportedly have been killed during the failed so-called “counter-offensive” that started in early June. The Russians are winning big, and the Lying Legacy Media have been lying to America the entire time. Ukraine is a NATO disaster, and it should stop ASAP.
There is much more in the 48-minute newscast.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 9.29.23.
Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post. Everything — stocks, bonds, gold, real estate and war look bad in his cycles. One thing looks good. Watch the interview to find out what Charles Nenner would buy now.
AM2014.57
Courageous Discourse™ with Dr. Peter McCullough & John Leake
harveyorganblog.com 
[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]
LikeLike