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Bitcoin morning price:, 28,260 DOWN 11 DOLLARS

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $28,381 DOWN 132 dollars

Platinum price closing $889.65 DOWN $11.00

Palladium price; $1136.50 DOWN $ 9.50

END

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Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros/4: 15 PM ACCESS

CANADIAN GOLD: $2,673.30 up $51,52 CDN dollars per oz (ALL TIME HIGH 2,775.35)

BRITISH GOLD: 1605.55 UP 25.16 pounds per oz//(ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1630.29)

EURO GOLD: 1850.21 UP 29.80 euros per oz //(ALL TIME HIGH/CLOSING//1861.21)//

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2023 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,921.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/16/2023 DELIVERY DATE: 10/18/2023
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

190 H BMO CAPITAL 6
323 C HSBC 8
661 C JP MORGAN 6
690 C ABN AMRO 10 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 1

TOTAL: 16 16
MONTH TO DATE: 9,677

JPMorgan stopped 5/66 contracts.

FOR OCT.:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2023. CONTRACT: 66 NOTICES FOR 6600 OZ or .2053 TONNES

total notices so far: 9743 contracts for 974,300 oz (30.304 tonnes)

FOR OCT:

SILVER NOTICES:9 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 45,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 499 for 2,495,000 oz

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END

GLD

WITH GOLD UP $32.55

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//MAKES NO SENSE /

INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.43 TONNES

Silver//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 11 CENTS AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.207 MILLLION OZ FROM THE SLV//MAKES NO SENSE!!

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 444.529 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY GOOD SIZED 547 CONTRACTS TO 123,640 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GOOD $0.23 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT COVERING EPISODE IN TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING.. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A STRONG SIZED 581 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 581 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES

WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.23). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 547 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE SPEC SHORTS CAPITULATED AND TRIED AGAIN DESPERATELY TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALLS.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:

A SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 183 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.530 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 50,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 0 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0 MILLION OZ TODAY+ 4.0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR //NEW STANDING IS THUS 2.605 MILLION OZ NORMAL SILVER DELIVERY + 4.0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 6.605 MILLION OZ/////SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 581 CONTRACTS)/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL – REMOVED 358 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT:

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 12 days, total 13,637 contracts: OR 68.185 MILLION OZ (1136 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 68.185 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 68.185 MILLION OZ (THIS IS GOING TO BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE//

RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 547 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.23 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 185 ISSUED FOR OCT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. . WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 1.532 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 50,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP:+ A NEW ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0 MILLION OZ. THUS NEW TOTAL OF SILVER STANDING: 2.605 MILLION OZ+ 4.0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 6.605 MILLION OZ//// /// WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 358 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 581 CONTRACTS//LITTLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT A HUGE (872) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .

WE HAD 9 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 45,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2525 CONTRACTS TO 439,581 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED 342 CONTRACTS

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 2525 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $1.50 GAIN IN PRICE//TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 16.562 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 6300 OZ QUEUE JUMP /NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 31.402 TONNES/ + /A HUGE (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 2653 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $1.50 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4868 OI CONTRACTS (15.141 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2343 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 439,581

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4868 CONTRACTS WITH 2525 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2343 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4868 CONTRACTS OR 15.141 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG 2653 CONTRACTS)

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2343 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (2525) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4868 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 16.562 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 6300 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 31.402 TONNES// /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND SOME TAS LIQUIDATION BUT CONSIDERABLE SPEC SHORT COVERINGS DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2653 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 50,627 CONTRACTS OR 5,062,700 OZ OR 157.47 TONNES IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4218 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 157.47TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 157.47/3550 x 100% TONNES 4.42% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 157.47 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 547 CONTRACTS OI TO 123,640 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE A SMALL 183 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 183 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 183 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 547 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 183 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 358 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 1.790 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.23 GAIN IN PRICE …..(SOME SHORT COVERINGS)

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 24.79 PTS OR .80% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 40.82 PTS OR 0.23% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 1.96 PTS OR 0.01% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.29 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.3151 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3232 /Oil UP TO 89.00 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 92.05/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

a)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/

OUTLINE

3 CHINA

OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES

OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 2525 CONTRACTS TO 439,581 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.50 ON TUESDAY. OUR SHORT SPECULATORS TRIED TO COVER THEIR POSITIONS DURING COMEX TRADING.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2343 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 2343 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2343 CONTRACTS

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED TOTAL OF 4868 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2343 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2525 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.50//TUESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A STRONG 2653 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: OCT (31.402) ( ACTIVE MONTH)

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR: 19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676 tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT. 31.402 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $1.50) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF 5207 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A LITTLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF TUESDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. IT DID HAVE SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING WITH THE MASSIVE PRICE INCREASE.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 15.141 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (16.562 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 6300 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTALS STANDING:31.402 TONNES ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $1.50. FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS, THE SPECULATORS HAVE GONE MASSIVELY SHORT WITH OUR BANKERS NET LONG. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOW HOW MUCH GOLD WILL THE BANKERS PULL FROM OUR SHORT SPECULATORS. SPECULATORS YESTERDAY ADDED TO THEIR HUGE SHORTS.

WE HAD REMOVED 342 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4868 CONTRACTS OR 486800 OZ OR 15.141 TONNES.

Estimated gold volume today:// 174,944 poor

final gold volumes/yesterday 174m944 poor/

//speculators have left the gold arena

//OCT 17/ /// THE OCT. 2023 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	48,953.713 oz OZ HSBC JPMorgan Mal Manfra includes 410 kilobars .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	66 notice(s) 6600 OZ .2053 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	353 contracts 35300 oz 1.097 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	9743 notices 974.300 OZ 30.304 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	x

0 dealer deposit:

total dealer deposits: 0 oz

customer deposits: 0

total customer deposits: 0 oz

we had 4 customer withdrawals

i) Out of HSBCL 11,371.125 oz

ii) Out of JPMorgan 13,182.155 oz 410 kilobars

iii) Out of Malca: 6,365.198 oz

iv) Out of Manfra 16,362,685 oz

total withdrawals 6970.406 oz

Adjustments; 0

total adjusted 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.

For the front month of OCTOBER we have an oi of 419 contracts having GAINED 47 contracts. We had 16 contracts filed on Tuesday, so we gained 16 contracts or an additional 6300 oz will stand for delivery at the comex in this active delivery month of October. Our short speculators have been met with physical delivery demands by the bank. The only way they can obtain gold is through these EFP’s where delivery is taken in London on a T + 2 basis. We had the commencement of gold speculator short covering last Thursday and this action by the banker longs will continue until the specs have been annihilated

NOV GAINED 48 CONTRACTS to stand at 1687

December GAINED 783 contracts up to 358,000 contracts.

We had 66 contracts filed for today representing 9600 oz

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 20 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 66 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 5 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9743 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (419 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 66 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,009,600 OZ OR 31.402 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of OCT.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT. contract month: No of notices filed so far (9743) x 100 oz + (419) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (66) x 100 oz) which equals 1,009,600 oz standing OR 31.402 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 31.402 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE BUT GENERALLY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH. (OCT). Somebody is after a considerable amount of gold from the comex.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,960,249.798 OZ 60.97 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 19,863,162.254 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 9,977,732,254 (310.336 tonnes)..

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,885,930.000 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,017.483 (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 249.377 tonnes//dropping like a stone

END

SILVER/COMEX

OCT 17

//2023// THE OCT 2023 SILVER CONTRACT

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	856,592.200 oz Brinks CNT Manfra .
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	856,592.200 oz Brinks CNT HSBC
No of oz served today (contracts)	9 CONTRACT(S) (45,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	22 contracts (110,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	499 Contracts (2,495,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposit: 0

total: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 deposit customer account:

total customer deposit nil oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 135.634 million oz/271.094 million or 50.00%

Comex withdrawals 3

i) Out of Brinks: 194,202.250 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 2113.100 oz

iii) Out of hSBC: 660,276.860 oz

total: 856,592.200 oz

adjustments: 1 brinks

i) dealer to customer 5,026.200 oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 37.633 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 271.094 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2023 OI: 31 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 1 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 9 NOTICES FILED

ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED 10 CONTRACTS AS WE HAD A QUEUE JUMP OF 50,000 OZ

NOVEMBER LOST 11 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 413

DEC. LOST 928 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 98,495 .

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 9 for 45,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 52,261 //extremely weak

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 52,261 extremely weak

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 499 x 5,000 oz = 2,495,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (31) and the number of notices served upon today 9 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the OCT/2023 contract month: 499 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT (31) – number of notices served upon today (9 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates to 2.605 million oz + 0 MILLION oz of exchange for risk today + 4.0 million oz prior//new totals: 6.605 million oz.

There are 37.094 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS

OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $32.55 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.43 TONNES

OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 855.45 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 855.45 TONNES

OCT 13/WITH GOLD UP $57.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $11.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $30.60 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.81 TONNES

OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.58 TONNES

OCT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.31 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES

OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES

OCT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.35 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES

SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.40 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES

SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.83 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.60 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES

SEPT 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES

SEPT 15/WITH GOLD UP $13.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.055 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.70 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.01 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.22 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.69 TONNES

SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.81 TONNES

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES

SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 853.43 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

OCT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.207 MILLLION OZ FROM THE SLV///// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ

OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 447.736 MILLION OZ

OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.664 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 447.730 MILLION OZ

OCT 13/WITH SILVER UP 90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.394 MILLION OZ

OCT 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.825 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.769 MILLION OZ

OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF .366 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.594 MILLION OZ

OCT 10/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 1.833 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.960 MILLION OZ

OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 0.916 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.127 MILLION OZ

OCT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.328 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.211 MILLION OZ

OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ

OCT 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ

OCT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 98 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ

SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.066 MILLION OZ

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ

SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.492 MILLION OZ

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449,033 MILLION OZ

SEPT 19/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.1 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.033 MILLION OZ

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.651 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.332 MILLION OZ

SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.681 MILLION OZ

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1,009 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ

SEPT 11/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ

SEPT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.373 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ

SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ

SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 444.529 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey

Global Debt At Record Levels And The Free Lunch Is Over

TUESDAY, OCT 17, 2023 – 04:45 PM

Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,

Global debt rose $10 trillion to a record $397 trillion in the first half of 2023, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF).

The big increase in debt occurred despite tightening credit conditions, and it is an increasingly worrisome problem because the “free lunch” of artificially low interest rates is over.

Over the last decade, global debt has increased by a staggering $100 trillion.

Combined government, household and corporate debt hit 336% of global GDP in the second quarter of this year. The global debt-to-GDP ratio has increased by 2 percentage points this year. Prior to 2023, the global debt-to-GDP ratio had declined seven straight quarters after reaching a record of 360% at the height of the global pandemic government lockdowns.

About 80% of the new global debt was piled up by developed nations, with Japan, the US, Britain and France leading the way. Among emerging markets, the largest economies saw the biggest debt increases, including China, Brazil and India.

“As higher rates and higher debt levels push government interest expenses higher, domestic debt strains are set to increase,” the IIF said in a statement.

Peter Praet served as chief economist at the European Central Bank. He told Reuters that the debt levels are still sustainable, but the outlook is worrying given the fact that spending needs aren’t going to decline.

You can take many, many countries today, and you will see that we are not far away from a public finances crisis.”

Praet seems over-optimistic.

The US government is over $33 trillion in debt. In fact, the Biden administration managed to add half a trillion dollars to the debt in just 20 days. Meanwhile, with rising interest rates, the federal government is now spending as much to make interest payments on the debt as it is for national defense.

And there is no end to the borrowing and spending in sight.

More than a decade of interest rates pushed artificially low by central banks worldwide incentivized a tidal wave of borrowing. This was intentional. The thinking was that borrowing and spending would “stimulate” a global economy dragged down first by the Great Recession and then by government-instituted pandemic policies. Nobody ever stopped to think the easy-money gravy train might run out of track.

But as Fitch Ratings managing director Edward Parker put it, “That free lunch is over and interest payments are now rising faster than debt or revenue.”

The US economy in particular was built on borrowing and spending. Easy money is its lifeblood. It simply can’t run without artificially low interest rates. The global economy is in much the same boat.

That puts the Federal Reserve and other central banks between a rock and a hard place. They need to keep interest rates high to counteract the trillions of dollars they created and injected into the global economy as stimulus causing a rapid increase in price inflation. But these higher rates will ultimately break things in the borrow-and-spend economy.

end

Ron Paul: A New House Speaker Won’t Solve The Bigger Problem

WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 12:00 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

The House recently ousted House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in the wake of the continuing resolution to keep spending money and avoid a government shutdown. Dissatisfied Republicans frustrated with the GOP’s unwillingness to address the federal spending problem banded together with Democrats to send McCarthy packing.

While the outcome might be politically satisfying to some, it’s not going to solve the underlying problem.

The US government is over $33 trillion in debt. The Biden administration managed to add half a trillion dollars to the debt in just 20 days. A new speaker can’t fix that. As Ron Paul put it, the fundamental issue is rooted in financial and moral bankruptcy.

The following article was originally published by the Ron Paul Institute. The opinions expressed are Dr. Paul’s and don’t necessarily reflect those of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

Last week we witnessed a dramatic, historical first: A Speaker of the US House of Representatives was removed from that position by a vote from Members of that body. US Rep. Matt Gaetz was able to gather enough Republicans dissatisfied with the leadership of then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy to send him packing.

What was the last straw? According to Gaetz, it was McCarthy’s secret deal with President Biden and the Democrats to bring up another huge funding package for Ukraine separately if they agreed to support a bill to keep the government open without Ukraine money in it.

Gaetz and his allies were angry that they were kept in the dark about the deal and in the end it only took eight Republican rebels to end McCarthy’s eight months in the Chair.

Several thoughtful Members, including my friend Thomas Massie, made convincing arguments that Republicans removing the Speaker would do little to nothing when looking at the bigger picture of a record US debt, a continuously growing budget deficit, and runaway inflation. It would also, he argued, do little to fix a broken House of Representatives where Members are more interested in showboating than taking a needed chainsaw to the massive yearly Omnibus spending bill that has taken the place of individual funding bills for each part of the Federal government.

When I was in the House we mostly worked under what was called “regular order,” where each individual appropriations bill was brought to the floor and debated sometimes for several days, and with unlimited amendments, before they held a vote. With regular orders, there was at least a chance that Members and staff could actually read the bills and try to make changes. Multi-thousand-page omnibus bills brought to the Floor at the last minute with a demand that they be passed immediately is part of the reason we are up to our eyeballs in debt. They can – and do – sneak everything into them!

Even with the deserved criticism, however, there is still something satisfying about seeing such a shake-up over the issue of foreign interventionism. After a year and a half and more than $100 billion sent by Biden’s neocons for the proxy war with Russia in Ukraine, finally some Members are starting to wake up and say “no” to demands for even more. These wars instigated by neocons from both parties always end in disaster, but not until they produce much suffering in the countries they claim to want to liberate. They also further punish the middle and working class while enriching the wealthy and well-connected in the military-industrial complex. The cost of this latest war will be hidden in the cruelest tax – inflation – which disproportionately hurts the poor.

Will a new Speaker of the House solve our problems? No. Our biggest problem is our financial and moral bankruptcy, which has been brewing for over 100 years since the creation of the Fed and the rise of the Progressive era. But finally, we see Members responding to rising anger among the electorate over the financing of another forever war – this time with a nuclear superpower! Finally, we see members saying “enough” to demand for even more money for the US empire. It’s a good start and we should do all we can to encourage it.

end

2 Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens//JAMES RICKARDS//JOHN RUBINO

END

3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

They may revisit the use of a gold dinar but Malaysia does not have very much gold reserves

(New Straits Times/GATA)

Malaysian government will revisit use of gold dinar as reserve currency

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-10-17 11:18Section: Daily Dispatches

By Nor Ain Mohamed Radhi and Qistina Sallehuddin
New Straits Times, Kuala Lampur, Malaysia
Tuesday, October 17, 2023

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — The government will revisit the idea of using the gold dinar as a reserve currency, the Dewan Rakyat [House of Representatives] heard today.

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim said the matter will be discussed during the upcoming meeting on Islamic economics and finance held in December

“We want to start it” — the use of gold dinar — “despite limited conditions,” he said.

“As I have mentioned earlier, our trading with China using ringgit and renminbi is at 25%. If we can get between 5 and 6% with Islamic countries [using dinar], it would be a positive start as it provides strength and reduces dependence on the U.S. dollar,” he said during the prime minister’s question time today.

Anwar was responding to a supplementary question from Ku Abdul Rahman Ku Ismail (PN-Kubang Pasu).

Ku Abdul Rahman had asked about the use of gold dinar and if using it would encounter resistance from countries using the U.S. dollar.

Anwar in his reply also said that the use of gold dinar gives the country an alternative, subsequently strengthening the domestic strength of each country’s economy. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2023/10/968034/govt-revisit-using-gold-dinar-reserve-currency-pm

end

4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES//

end

5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES:

END

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.3151

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.3232

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 24.79 PTS OR .80%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 40.82 PTS OR 0.23%

2. Nikkei closed UP 1.96 PTS OR 0.01 %

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 106.02 EURO FALLS TO 1.0545 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.808 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 149.65/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFFSHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.8715***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 4.920*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 4.003…**

3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.288

3j Gold at $1945.90 silver at: 23.19 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 57 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 97.13//

3m oil into the 88 dollar handle for WTI and 92 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 149.66// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.808% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8981 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9419 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.818 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.927 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.182 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.01…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 9 BASIS PTS AT 4.605

end

2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:

Futures Slide, Oil Jumps As Mideast Tensions Rise

WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 08:20 AM

US equity futures and global markets dropped, while gold surged and crude oil futures spiked as much as 3% to fresh weekly highs as the conflict in the Middle East escalated sharply despite Biden’s visit to Israel seeking a normalization in tensions, as Arab leaders canceled a summit with the US President and as Iran intensified its war of words against Israel. As of 7:45am, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures lost more than 0.4%, after yesterday’s flat close. Crude’s surged after the foreign minister of Iran, a major oil exporter albeit embargoed, called for an embargo against Israel. Gold prices rose as investors snapped up haven assets.

Amid the geopolitical concerns, traders are also tracking the latest earnings. Morgan Stanley dropped 2.9% in premarket after third-quarter wealth management revenue missed estimates. Elsewhere in the premarket, Nvidia shares are on track for a second day of declines, down 1.6% and extending its 4.7% slump in the previous session, after a Morgan Stanley downgrade (note available to pro subscribers) as the US steps up efforts to keep advanced chips out of China; Procter & Gamble gained after organic sales topped expectations. In other individual stock moves, United Airlines fell 6%, leading declines for other carriers, after the company warned of a potential sharp profit impact from suspended flights to Tel Aviv. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Editas Medicine shares jump 3.2% after JPMorgan upgraded the clinical-stage biotechnology company to neutral from underweight, saying the valuation should remain range bound.
Interactive Brokers shares fell 3.2% after the company tempered its guidance for accounts growth.
Terawulf shares jump 4.0% after Stifel Canada initiates coverage on the Bitcoin miner with a buy recommendation, noting the company has one of the highest breakeven costs of power.
Viking Therapeutics shares rose 8.9% after the company said its GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist VK2735 significantly reduced liver fat and plasma lipid following 28 days of treatment in a Phase 1 trial.

US President Joe Biden met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel on Wednesday, hours after the hospital blast killed hundreds and threatened to plunge the region into chaos. Leaders of Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority canceled a summit with Biden, who planned to use the trip to reinforce the US commitment to Israel.

“The risks of an escalation have risen on the back of the latest news reports regarding the hospital bombing,” said Jane Foley, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Rabobank. While there have been few signs of panic, “on any clear escalation, we can expect to see a ratcheting up of risk aversion,” she said.

European stocks are also in the red, although off their worst levels, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.2%. Among other individual movers, ASML Holding NV, Europe’s most valuable technology company, slumped 1.7% after the company reported the lowest quarterly order intake since 2020 and revenue that missed estimates for the first time in seven quarters. Adidas AG advanced 5.3% after the sportswear maker boosted its guidance, helped by sales of more Yeezy sneakers from its canceled partnership with the rapper Ye. Nexi SpA jumped as much as 19% after people with knowledge of the matter said CVC Capital Partners is in the early stages of considering a potential bid for European payments firm. Here are the most notable European movers:

Handelsbanken gains as much as 6.3%, most in a year, after the Swedish lender reported net interest income for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
Nexi soars as much as 19% after Bloomberg News reports CVC Capital Partners is in the early stages of considering a potential bid for the Italian payments firm
Volvo shares erase early declines, rising as much as 4.1% after the truckmaker reported third quarter earnings that beat estimates on the back of pent-up demand, though the Swedish company said it expects markets to weaken next year
Adidas shares jump as much as 5.3% in Frankfurt after the sportswear company improved its annual financial projections and posted stronger-than-anticipated preliminary third-quarter revenue and gross margin
Ultimovacs gains as much as 60%, the most since its June 2019 IPO, after the Norwegian biotech said a Phase II trial of its UV1 cancer vaccine for malignant mesothelioma showed “clinically meaningful” improvement in overall survival
Just Eat Takeaway shares rise as much as 9.3% after the food delivery company forecast positive free cash flow from start of next year, a timeline earlier than previously communicated
Genmab drops as much as 7.3% to the lowest since 2022 as partial results for the Mariposa lung cancer study with partner J&J underwhelm analysts after they were released early
ABB shares fall as much as 6.6%, most since 2021, after its orders came in slightly soft as the Swiss industrial conglomerate’s robotics segment was weak
Kinnevik falls as much as 7.9%, the most since March, after the Swedish investment group reported a year-on-year drop in net asset value per share
Barco plunges as much as 19%, the most in nearly three years, after the Belgian technology company said the headwinds from the second quarter have intensified
Pendragon shares fall as much as 8.7% after AutoNation said it would not be making a formal offer for the motor retailer after submitting a preliminary proposal in September

Traders also sifted through data showing UK inflation exceeded forecasts, leaving open the possibility of a further rate hike from the Bank of England. Ten-year gilt yields rose for a third day, adding six basis points to 4.58%. The pound added 0.2% to $1.22, before paring its gains.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities declined as strong economic data in China failed to lift investors’ cautious mood amid fears of an escalation in the Middle East geopolitical crisis. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.5%, with TSMC and Tencent Holdings among the biggest drags.

Chinese stocks dropped while Hong Kong gauges were little changed despite better-than-expected Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales with several tech stocks hit after the US expanded chip restrictions and amid property sector woes as Country Garden is seen to likely have defaulted and with China property stocks gauge on course for its lowest since 2009.
Australia’s ASX 200 was positive as strength in healthcare, financials and the commodity-related sectors atoned for the losses in tech and utilities but with gains limited amid a higher yield environment.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was indecisive after a recent source report noted potential hawkish revisions to the BoJ’s Core CPI forecasts, while the rise in yields prompted an unscheduled purchase operation by the BoJ.
Indian stocks suffered their biggest drop in October tracking most of their Asian peers, weighed by a slump in lenders including HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.8% to 65,877.02 in Mumbai, the sharpest decline since Sept. 28, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index slid by 0.7%.

In FX, The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1%. The Aussie is the best performer among the G-10’s, rising 0.3% after Chinese data topped estimates. GBP/USD climbed as much as 0.23% to 1.2211 after data indicated inflation failed to slow in September as oil prices rose; gilts fell as money markets raised BOE policy tightening wages.

In rates, the treasuries curve twist-steepened with yields on the two-year down 2bps to 5.19% and 10-year yields up 2bps to 4.85%. US yields are cheaper by up to 2bp across long-end of the curve while 2-year yields are richer by 3.5bp on the day; steepening move pushes 2s10s, 5s30s spreads wider by 2.5bp and 5bp; 10-year yields shed around 1bp to 4.82%, outperforming gilts by 6.5bp in the sector. Gilts underperform across core European rates, as money markets raise BOE policy-tightening premium after UK inflation exceeded median estimates. UK 10-year yields rise 7bps to 4.58%. US session focus includes 20-year bond auction and six scheduled Fed speakers. Treasury auction slate includes $13b 20-year bond reopening at 1pm New York time; WI yield at around 5.16% is ~57bp cheaper than last month’s, which stopped 0.3bp through.

In commodities, US crude futures rise 3.4% to trade near $89.70. Spot gold gains 1.1% to around $1,945.

Bitcoin is marginally firmer on the session, currently residing around the mid-point of USD 28.33-28.98k parameters with specific newsflow somewhat light amid numerous broader macro/geopolitical developments.

To the day ahead, and data releases include UK CPI for September, along with US housing starts and building permits for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Waller, Williams, Bowman, Barkin, Harker and Cook, whilst the Fed will also release their Beige Book. Finally, earnings releases include Netflix, Tesla, Morgan Stanley and Procter & Gamble.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 4,392.50
MXAP down 0.2% to 156.26
MXAPJ down 0.4% to 489.87
Nikkei little changed at 32,042.25
Topix up 0.1% to 2,295.34
Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 17,732.52
Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,058.71
Sensex down 0.6% to 66,054.04
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,077.61
Kospi little changed at 2,462.60
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 448.98
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.91%
Euro little changed at $1.0577
Brent Futures up 2.1% to $91.81/bbl
Gold spot up 0.8% to $1,939.01
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 106.17

Top Overnight News

China posts bullish economic numbers, including Q3 GDP +4.9% Y/Y (vs. the Street’s +4.5% forecast), Sept industrial production +4.5% (vs. the Street +4.4% and flat vs. +4.5% in Aug), and Sept retail sales +5.5% (vs. the Street’s +4.9% forecast and up from +4.6% in Aug). RTRS
Country Garden Holdings, a private real estate developer at the center of China’s property sector crisis, said Wednesday that it is unable to fulfill all of its offshore debt obligations. The distressed Chinese developer issued a statement saying, “The company is incapable of meeting all the repayment obligations of its external debt items in time.” Country Garden was facing a deadline to make an interest payment of $15 million on Tuesday, which was under a 30-day grace period after it missed the payment date on Sept 18. Nikkei
China’s financial regulators told its policy banks and biggest lenders to issue new loans to cover offshore debt issued by local governments maturing this year and in 2024, ramping up efforts to ease a credit crunch for highly indebted municipalities. BBG
The BOJ announced an unscheduled bond-purchase operation on Wednesday, reminding the market of its determination to slow the pace of increases in sovereign yields. BBG
At least five companies are scheduled to provide updates on Italy’s credit ratings in coming weeks. The potential Nov. 17 announcement by Moody’s Investors Service may be the most sensitive pressure point, given that it assesses the country at Baa3, just one notch above junk, with a negative outlook. BBG
UK CPI holds relatively steady in Sept vs. Aug and overshoots the Street, with headline +6.7% (vs. +6.7% in Aug and vs. the Street +6.6%) and core +6.1% (vs. +6.2% in Aug and vs. the Street +6%). RTRS
President Joe Biden is considering a supplemental request of approximately $100 billion that would include defense assistance for Israel and Ukraine alongside border security funding and aid to nations in the Indo-Pacific, including Taiwan, according to people familiar with the matter. BBG
President Biden, arriving in Israel on Wednesday to reaffirm U.S. support for its longtime ally in the war with Hamas, appeared to absolve Israel of responsibility for a deadly blast at a hospital in Gaza that has demonstrated the volatility of the conflict and heightened fears of escalation. WSJ
The US House will vote again at 11 a.m. for a new speaker after Jim Jordan failed on the first ballot. A group of 20 fellow Republicans withheld support for the Donald Trump-backed conservative hardliner, as did the Democrats. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed following a similar performance on Wall St where the focus was on retail sales data, earnings releases and geopolitical headlines including a deadly strike at a Gaza hospital which both sides blamed each other for, while the region also digested the latest Chinese GDP and activity data which topped forecasts. ASX 200 was positive as strength in healthcare, financials and the commodity-related sectors atoned for the losses in tech and utilities but with gains limited amid a higher yield environment. Nikkei 225 was indecisive after a recent source report noted potential hawkish revisions to the BoJ’s Core CPI forecasts, while the rise in yields prompted an unscheduled purchase operation by the BoJ. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were varied despite better-than-expected Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales with several tech stocks hit after the US expanded chip restrictions and amid property sector woes as Country Garden is seen to likely have defaulted and with China property stocks gauge on course for its lowest since 2009.

Top Asian News

Chinese President Xi said at the Belt and Road Forum that cooperation has progressed from sketching the outline to filling the details and blueprints have turned to real projects. Xi also stated that China will build a new logistics corridor across the European continent linked by railway transportation and will enter into free trade agreements with more countries, as well as remove all restrictions on foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector. China will also deepen reform in state-owned enterprises, digital economy, intellectual property and government procurement.
China’s stats bureau said the positive momentum of China’s economic recovery was more obvious in Q3 and that domestic economic growth has stabilised and picked up. Furthermore, it stated the foundation of the economic recovery and improvement needs to be further consolidated, while it also noted that if China’s Q4 GDP Y/Y growth could hit above 4.4%, then the full-year target of around 5% could be achieved, according to Reuters.
China said it firmly opposes export restrictions imposed by the US on advanced AI chips, according to the Chinese embassy in Washington.
BoJ is reportedly considering using the returns from its ETF purchases to shore up finances prior to an eventual exit from monetary easing, via Nikkei.
Former BoJ member Sakurai says BoJ could end negative rates by year-end; BoJ’s negative rates may be scrapped before YCC tweak.

European bourses have been relatively steady amid a ramp-up in earnings, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, but with an underlying negative bias increasing in magnitude as geopolitical tensions overshadow stronger than expected Chinese activity data. Sectors are mixed, Telecom names outperform following Tele2 while Retail derives support from Adidas. On the flip side, Real Estate lags after Barratt Developments commentary. More broadly, European heavyweight ASML is lowered after a miss on revenue and bookings alongside cautious commentary for FY23. Stateside, futures are in-fitting with European performance and as such reside in the red, ES -0.4%; focus remains on the yield environment, though action is steady at present ahead of numerous Fed officials, data points and key earnings including NFLX, TSLA & MS. ASML Q3 (EUR): Revenue 6.67bln (exp. 6.71bln), Bookings 2.6bln (exp. 4.5bln), Net Income 1.9bln (exp. 1.8bln), Gross Profit 3.46bln, Margin 51.9%. Click here for more.

Top European News

ECB’s Stournaras said the Middle East crisis casts a shadow over the ECB meeting and the Israel-Hamas war supports the case for keeping rates on hold, according to FT.
ECB’s Visco says inflation is not yet consistent with underlying price stability.
France’s Lille, Lyon, Toulouse and Nice airports evacuated after a security risk alert, according to Sky News Arabia.. Subsequently, it has been reported that six airports across France have been evacuated after emailed ‘threats of attack’, according to AFP citing police source

Aussie aloft after a run of better-than-expected Chinese data and hawkish remarks from RBA Governor Bullock, AUD/USD eyes 0.6400 and AUD/NZD tops 1.0800.
Yuan unable to benefit from GDP, IP and Retail Sales beats as Country Garden misses coupon grace payment deadline, USD/CNY and USD/CNH up to 7.3125 and 7.3275 peaks respectively.
DXY comfortably above the 106.000 handle and towards the top-end of 106.010-320 range as Franc reclaims 0.9000+ status, Pound probes 1.2200 post-firmer than forecast UK CPI and Loonie gets fillip from resurgent crude prices; USD/CAD and EUR/USD closing in on option expiries between 1.3610-00 and 1.0595-1.0600 respectively.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1795 vs exp. 7.3079 (prev. 7.1796).

Fixed Income

Debt futures are pressured after above forecast Chinese and UK data in the form of GDP, IP, Retail Sales and CPI.
Bunds down to 127.69 before bouncing in the wake of a solid German 10 year auction; further upside seen as US players enter the fray and potentially alongside security alerts, with Bunds attempting to move back into positive territory.
Gilts arrest slide at 92.50 and close to support zone.
T-note holding above 106-00 ahead of US housing data, 20 year supply and more Fed rhetoric.

Commodities

Commodities are deriving support from a combination of geopolitical tensions and upbeat Chinese data.
WTI and Brent Dec futures experienced an additional tailwind from the Iranian Foreign Minister calling on Islamic countries to impose an oil embargo “on the Zionist regime”; commentary which, over the course of several minutes, lifted the benchmarks to respective USD 88.57/bbl and USD 93.00/bbl session peaks.
Spot gold is at highs of USD 1946/oz given escalating geopolitical tensions while base metals glean after stronger than expected Chinese activity data and the sessions USD weakness.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.4mln (exp. -0.3mln), Gasoline -1.6mln (exp. -1.1mln), Distillates -0.6mln (exp. -1.4mln), Cushing -1mln
Australia’s Offshore Alliance stated regarding the Chevron (CVX) deal that members voted 94% in support of an in-principle agreement to suspend protected industrial action.
India extends sugar export curbs for raw sugar, white sugar, refined sugar and organic sugar under some codes beyond 31st October till further orders.
Chevron (CVX) Australia welcomes the in-principle agreement with the Australian workers’ union on the proposed agreement for workers at the Gorgon and Wheatstone facilities; will now progress to an employee vote.
Iranian Foreign Minister says “We call on Islamic countries to impose an oil embargo on the Zionist regime”, according to Al Jazeera.

Geopolitics

Israeli military spokesperson said that rockets fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad passed by the hospital at the time of the strike and another spokesman said they intercepted a conversation in which militants acknowledged a misfire, according to Reuters.
Palestinian Islamic Jihad spokesman denied Israeli allegations that the militant group is responsible for the strike
US President Biden said he is outraged and deeply saddened about the Gaza hospital attack, while he spoke with Jordan’s King and Israeli PM Netanyahu and directed the national security team to continue gathering information about what happened, according to Reuters. Furthermore, President Biden reportedly plans to ask Congress for roughly USD 100bln in Ukraine, Israel, and border supplemental aid, according to Bloomberg.
White House’s Kirby said US President Biden will meet with families of victims and hostages of the Hamas attack and will be asking the Israelis some tough questions. Kirby added that President Biden will ask Israel about its plans going forward and will make it clear he doesn’t want the conflict to expand, while Kirby added that there are no plans to put US boots on the ground in combat in Israel.
Jordan cancelled the summit with US President Biden and the Egyptian and Palestinian leaders in Amman on Wednesday and said there is no use in talking about anything else now except stopping the war.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said targeting Gaza hospital is a hideous war massacre that cannot be tolerated and Israel has crossed all red lines. Furthermore, the Palestinian UN envoy, standing with Arab envoys, said they are outraged by the massacre at the Gaza hospital and blamed Israeli forces, while the envoy added that Arab envoys demand an immediate ceasefire.
Egyptian President Sisi said he condemns in the strongest terms Israel’s bombardment of the Gaza hospital and it is a clear violation of international law, while the UAE also condemned Israeli attack on the hospital in Gaza.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah announced Wednesday as “a day of unprecedented anger” against Israel and President Biden’s visit to Israel. It was separately reported that Hezbollah is intensifying military preparations including an escalation in rocket fire and a pending decision from Tehran will determine whether the group will proceed with full-scale military actions, according to an i24 news journalist citing sources.
Egyptian President says “the idea of displacing Palestinians to Sinai means dragging Egypt into a war against Israel”, reported via Al Arabiya.
US President Biden says the US will ensure that Israel has what it requires to defend itself. Hospital explosion was caused by the “other side”, based on what he has seen.
Iranian Foreign Minister says “We call on Islamic countries to impose an oil embargo on the Zionist regime”, according to Al Jazeera.

Central Bank Speakers

12:00: Fed’s Waller Speaks About Economic Outlook in London
12:30: Fed’s Williams Participates in Moderated Discussion
13:00: Fed’s Bowman Delivers Opening Remarks at Fed Listens Event
13:00: Fed’s Barkin Speaks at Fed Listens Event
14:00: Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
15:15: Fed’s Harker Speaks on Workforce Challenges
18:55: Fed’s Cook Speaks About the Fed’s Mandate

US Event Calendar

07:00: Oct. MBA Mortgage Applications -6.9%, prior 0.6%
08:30: Sept. Housing Starts MoM, est. 7.8%, prior -11.3%
- Sept. Building Permits MoM, est. -5.7%, prior 6.9%, revised 6.8%
- Sept. Housing Starts, est. 1.38m, prior 1.28m
- Sept. Building Permits, est. 1.45m, prior 1.54m, revised 1.54m
14:00: Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
16:00: Aug. Total Net TIC Flows, prior $140.6b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Macro data was the main market driver yesterday, as very strong US data led investors to dial up the chances of another rate hike from the Fed. In turn, that sent global yields sharply higher, and there were several new milestones across the Treasury curve. For instance, the 10yr yield closed at a new high for the cycle of 4.84%, and the 2yr yield also hit a new cycle high of 5.21%. So that marks a big turnaround relative to last week, since it was only last Thursday that the 10yr yield hit an intraday low of 4.52%, when concerns about geopolitical risk saw a big rally for haven assets like sovereign bonds. That said, overnight we’ve seen a fresh risk-off tone because of the geopolitical situation, and a summit has been cancelled between President Biden and Arab leaders in Jordan following an explosion at a hospital in Gaza. That has led to a clear reaction in markets, with Brent Crude oil prices up +2.22% overnight to $91.90/bbl, whilst gold prices (+0.79%) are up at a one-month high of $1938/oz .

We’ll start with the bond selloff, which was mainly driven by a very strong retail sales print for September. The headline measure was up by +0.7% (vs. +0.3% expected), and there was an upward revision to the August number as well. Furthermore, it marked the 6th consecutive month that retail sales had risen, whilst the measure excluding autos and gas stations was up by +0.6% (vs. +0.1% expected). In the meantime, industrial production was stronger than expected too, with a +0.3% gain in September (vs. unch. expected), albeit with a downward revision to the August figure. So the releases add to the run of positive data out of the US recently, including the September jobs report, which showed nonfarm payrolls up by +336k.

Those positive signs on the economy meant that investors priced in a growing chance of another rate hike from the Fed. In fact, futures were pricing in a 59.5% chance of another hike by the close yesterday, which is the first time that’s been above 50% since October 3. In addition, they moved to price out the chances of cuts in 2024, with the rate priced in by the December 2024 meeting up +11.9bps on the day to a new cycle high of 4.78% .

With markets pricing in higher rates for longer again, that led to a major selloff among sovereign bonds. Most notably, the 10yr Treasury yield ended the day up +12.9bps at 4.84%, which is its highest closing level since 2007. Those increases were evident across the curve as well, with the 2yr yield up +11.1bps to a post-2006 high of 5.21%, and the 5yr yield rose +15.2bps to a post-2007 high of 4.87%. Real yields led the moves higher, but they didn’t quite hit their recent highs, with the 10yr real yield (+10.1bps) closing at 2.42%, which is beneath its closing high of 2.48% on October 6 after the jobs report .

Over in Europe, there was a similar shift in long-term borrowing costs, with yields on 10yr bunds (+9.8bps), OATs (+9.8bps) and BTPs (+12.5bps) all moving higher. UK gilts were the main outperformer, with 10yr yields only up +3.1bps after the employment data out yesterday was a bit weaker than expected. For instance, the number of payrolled employees fell -11k in September (vs. +3k expected), vacancies fell to a two-year low over the July-September period, and wage growth was also beneath expectations. That led investors to lower the chances of a hike at the BoE’s next meeting, which dropped from 31% to 25%, and the focus will now turn to the CPI release this morning, which is out shortly after we go to press.

Equities were largely flat yesterday despite sizeable intra-day moves. There was initially a sharp selloff as markets priced in a more hawkish path for the Fed, but that reversed as the session went on. For instance, the S&P 500 was down -0.83% within the first half hour, before recovering to trade nearly half a percent higher on the day but then ending the session flat at -0.01%. It was a similar story in Europe, where the STOXX 600 pared back most of its afternoon losses to close -0.10% lower. The small-cap Russell 2000 outperformed, advancing +1.09%, bringing its gains to +2.69% over the last two sessions. By contrast, megacap tech stocks were an underperformer, and the FANG+ index shed -0.64%. The was led by a -4.68% decline for chipmaker Nvidia as the US announced new restrictions on chip exports to China.

Overnight, we’ve seen more of a risk-off tone return in light of the latest geopolitical developments, with a summit cancelled between President Biden and Arab leaders in Jordan following an explosion at a hospital in Gaza.. That’s led to growing market concern, which has been evident in the sharp rise in oil prices overnight, with Brent crude up +2.22% to $91.90/bbl. In the meantime, investors have moved into haven assets, with gold up +0.79% to $1938/oz.

The other main story overnight has been the Q3 GDP release from China, which showed year-on-year growth running at +4.9% (vs. +4.5% expected). Furthermore, the monthly data for September also looked better than expected, with industrial production up +4.5% year-on-year (vs. +4.4% expected), and retail sales up +5.5% year-on-year (vs. +4.9% expected). The jobless rate was also down to a 22-month low of 5.0% (vs. 5.2% expected). But in spite of the positive data, the global risk-off tone has prevailed and several equity indices have seen losses in Asia. That includes the Shanghai Comp (-0.61%), the CSI 300 (-0.57%), the Nikkei (-0.12%) and the Hang Seng (-0.10%). The exception to that is the KOSPI, which has advanced +0.09%.

Separately, t he Bank of Japan announced another unscheduled bond buying operation overnight, which comes as yields on 10yr JGBs hit their highest level in over a decade, with an intraday peak of 0.815%. They’re currently a bit lower again at 0.808%.

When it comes to US politics, there was no sign of a new Speaker in the House of Representatives yesterday, as Republican nominee Jim Jordan failed to win a majority on an initial vote. 20 Republicans voted against Jordan, and no further votes were held yesterday.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, in the US there was the NAHB’s housing market index for October, which fell to 40 (vs. 44 expected). That marks a third consecutive monthly decline for the index, and takes it down to its lowest level since January. Meanwhile in Canada, CPI fell to +3.8% in September (vs. +4.0% expected), which led investors to lower the chance of a hike at the Bank of Canada’s next meeting from 43% to 16%. Finally in Germany, the ZEW survey for October saw the expectations component rise to a 6-month high of -1.1 (vs. -9.0 expected).

2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Geopolitical tensions overshadow stronger Chinese activity data amid key earnings – Newsquawk US Market Open

WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 06:33 AM

European bourses/US futures experience pressure as geopolitical tensions overshadow stronger than expected Chinese activity data
DXY comfortably above 106.00 but just off best, Yuan unable to benefit from mentioned data while GBP benefits from UK CPI
Debt benchmarks pressured post-data though have climbed off lows with Bunds probing positive territory post-supply
Commodities derive support from China and geopols., crude benchmarks hit highs as the Iranian Foreign Ministry calls for an oil embargo on Israel
Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Waller, Bowman, Harker & Cook, Supply from the US, Earnings from SAP, Netflix, Tesla, Morgan Stanley & Abbott.

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LOOKING AHEAD

US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Waller, Bowman, Harker & Cook, Supply from the US, Earnings from SAP, Netflix, Tesla, Morgan Stanley & Abbott.
Click here for the Newsquawk Week Ahead summary.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses have been relatively steady amid a ramp-up in earnings, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.5%, but with an underlying negative bias increasing in magnitude as geopolitical tensions overshadow stronger than expected Chinese activity data.
Sectors are mixed, Telecom names outperform following Tele2 while Retail derives support from Adidas. On the flip side, Real Estate lags after Barratt Developments commentary. More broadly, European heavyweight ASML is lowered after a miss on revenue and bookings alongside cautious commentary for FY23.
Stateside, futures are in-fitting with European performance and as such reside in the red, ES -0.4%; focus remains on the yield environment, though action is steady at present ahead of numerous Fed officials, data points and key earnings including NFLX, TSLA & MS.
ASML (ASML NA) Q3 (EUR): Revenue 6.67bln (exp. 6.71bln), Bookings 2.6bln (exp. 4.5bln), Net Income 1.9bln (exp. 1.8bln), Gross Profit 3.46bln, Margin 51.9%. Click here for more.
Click here for more details.

FX

Aussie aloft after a run of better-than-expected Chinese data and hawkish remarks from RBA Governor Bullock, AUD/USD eyes 0.6400 and AUD/NZD tops 1.0800.
Yuan unable to benefit from GDP, IP and Retail Sales beats as Country Garden misses coupon grace payment deadline, USD/CNY and USD/CNH up to 7.3125 and 7.3275 peaks respectively.
DXY comfortably above the 106.000 handle and towards the top-end of 106.010-320 range as Franc reclaims 0.9000+ status, Pound probes 1.2200 post-firmer than forecast UK CPI and Loonie gets fillip from resurgent crude prices; USD/CAD and EUR/USD closing in on option expiries between 1.3610-00 and 1.0595-1.0600 respectively.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1795 vs exp. 7.3079 (prev. 7.1796).
Click here for more details.
Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

Debt futures are pressured after above forecast Chinese and UK data in the form of GDP, IP, Retail Sales and CPI.
Bunds down to 127.69 before bouncing in the wake of a solid German 10 year auction; further upside seen as US players enter the fray and potentially alongside security alerts, with Bunds attempting to move back into positive territory.
Gilts arrest slide at 92.50 and close to support zone.
T-note holding above 106-00 ahead of US housing data, 20 year supply and more Fed rhetoric.
Click here for more details.

COMMODITIES

Commodities are deriving support from a combination of geopolitical tensions and upbeat Chinese data.
WTI and Brent Dec futures experienced an additional tailwind from the Iranian Foreign Minister calling on Islamic countries to impose an oil embargo “on the Zionist regime”; commentary which, over the course of several minutes, lifted the benchmarks to respective USD 88.57/bbl and USD 93.00/bbl session peaks.
Spot gold is at highs of USD 1946/oz given escalating geopolitical tensions while base metals glean after stronger than expected Chinese activity data and the sessions USD weakness.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.4mln (exp. -0.3mln), Gasoline -1.6mln (exp. -1.1mln), Distillates -0.6mln (exp. -1.4mln), Cushing -1mln
Australia’s Offshore Alliance stated regarding the Chevron (CVX) deal that members voted 94% in support of an in-principle agreement to suspend protected industrial action.
India extends sugar export curbs for raw sugar, white sugar, refined sugar and organic sugar under some codes beyond 31st October till further orders.
Chevron (CVX) Australia welcomes the in-principle agreement with the Australian workers’ union on the proposed agreement for workers at the Gorgon and Wheatstone facilities; will now progress to an employee vote.
Iranian Foreign Minister says “We call on Islamic countries to impose an oil embargo on the Zionist regime”, according to Al Jazeera.
Click here for more details.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

ECB’s Stournaras said the Middle East crisis casts a shadow over the ECB meeting and the Israel-Hamas war supports the case for keeping rates on hold, according to FT.
ECB’s Visco says inflation is not yet consistent with underlying price stability.
France’s Lille, Lyon, Toulouse and Nice airports evacuated after a security risk alert, according to Sky News Arabia.. Subsequently, it has been reported that six airports across France have been evacuated after emailed ‘threats of attack’, according to AFP citing police source

EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

UK CPI YY (Sep 2023) 6.7% vs. Exp. 6.6% (Prev. 6.7%); All Services 6.9% (prev. 6.8%); MM (Sep 2023) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.3%)
UK Core CPI YY (Sep 2023) 6.1% vs. Exp. 6.0% (Prev. 6.2%); MM (Sep 2023) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 0.1%)
EU HICP Final YY (Sep 2023) 4.3% vs. Exp. 4.3% (Prev. 4.3%); X Food & Energy Final YY (Sep 2023) 5.5% vs. Exp. 5.5% (Prev. 5.5%); X F, E, A & T Final YY (Sep 2023) 4.5% vs. Exp. 4.5% (Prev. 4.5%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

Fed’s Harker (2023 voter) reiterates that the Fed should extend its pause on rate increases, via WSJ.
Click here for the US Early Morning Note.

GEOPOLITICS

ISRAEL-HAMAS

Israeli military spokesperson said that rockets fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad passed by the hospital at the time of the strike and another spokesman said they intercepted a conversation in which militants acknowledged a misfire, according to Reuters.
Palestinian Islamic Jihad spokesman denied Israeli allegations that the militant group is responsible for the strike
US President Biden said he is outraged and deeply saddened about the Gaza hospital attack, while he spoke with Jordan’s King and Israeli PM Netanyahu and directed the national security team to continue gathering information about what happened, according to Reuters. Furthermore, President Biden reportedly plans to ask Congress for roughly USD 100bln in Ukraine, Israel, and border supplemental aid, according to Bloomberg.
White House’s Kirby said US President Biden will meet with families of victims and hostages of the Hamas attack and will be asking the Israelis some tough questions. Kirby added that President Biden will ask Israel about its plans going forward and will make it clear he doesn’t want the conflict to expand, while Kirby added that there are no plans to put US boots on the ground in combat in Israel.
Jordan cancelled the summit with US President Biden and the Egyptian and Palestinian leaders in Amman on Wednesday and said there is no use in talking about anything else now except stopping the war.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said targeting Gaza hospital is a hideous war massacre that cannot be tolerated and Israel has crossed all red lines. Furthermore, the Palestinian UN envoy, standing with Arab envoys, said they are outraged by the massacre at the Gaza hospital and blamed Israeli forces, while the envoy added that Arab envoys demand an immediate ceasefire.
Egyptian President Sisi said he condemns in the strongest terms Israel’s bombardment of the Gaza hospital and it is a clear violation of international law, while the UAE also condemned Israeli attack on the hospital in Gaza.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah announced Wednesday as “a day of unprecedented anger” against Israel and President Biden’s visit to Israel. It was separately reported that Hezbollah is intensifying military preparations including an escalation in rocket fire and a pending decision from Tehran will determine whether the group will proceed with full-scale military actions, according to an i24 news journalist citing sources.
Egyptian President says “the idea of displacing Palestinians to Sinai means dragging Egypt into a war against Israel”, reported via Al Arabiya.
US President Biden says the US will ensure that Israel has what it requires to defend itself. Hospital explosion was caused by the “other side”, based on what he has seen.
Iranian Foreign Minister says “We call on Islamic countries to impose an oil embargo on the Zionist regime”, according to Al Jazeera.

OTHER

Russian ambassador to the US said the decision by the US to send ATACMS to Kyiv is a grave mistake, according to AFP News Agency.
Russian President Putin says the supplies of ATACMS missiles to Ukraine create additional threats; ATACMS will not change significantly; supplies of ATACMS to Ukraine is a mistake by the US, via Tass.
Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi spoke for three hours, Putin is optimistic about further cooperation with China.
US military is willing to discuss with Japan and South Korea forming trilateral operational plans for contingencies involving North Korea and China, according to Nikkei citing a top US general for nuclear operations.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin is marginally firmer on the session, currently residing around the mid-point of USD 28.33-28.98k parameters with specific newsflow somewhat light amid numerous broader macro/geopolitical developments.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks traded mixed following a similar performance on Wall St where the focus was on retail sales data, earnings releases and geopolitical headlines including a deadly strike at a Gaza hospital which both sides blamed each other for, while the region also digested the latest Chinese GDP and activity data which topped forecasts.
ASX 200 was positive as strength in healthcare, financials and the commodity-related sectors atoned for the losses in tech and utilities but with gains limited amid a higher yield environment.
Nikkei 225 was indecisive after a recent source report noted potential hawkish revisions to the BoJ’s Core CPI forecasts, while the rise in yields prompted an unscheduled purchase operation by the BoJ.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were varied despite better-than-expected Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales with several tech stocks hit after the US expanded chip restrictions and amid property sector woes as Country Garden is seen to likely have defaulted and with China property stocks gauge on course for its lowest since 2009.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

Chinese President Xi said at the Belt and Road Forum that cooperation has progressed from sketching the outline to filling the details and blueprints have turned to real projects. Xi also stated that China will build a new logistics corridor across the European continent linked by railway transportation and will enter into free trade agreements with more countries, as well as remove all restrictions on foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector. China will also deepen reform in state-owned enterprises, digital economy, intellectual property and government procurement.
China’s stats bureau said the positive momentum of China’s economic recovery was more obvious in Q3 and that domestic economic growth has stabilised and picked up. Furthermore, it stated the foundation of the economic recovery and improvement needs to be further consolidated, while it also noted that if China’s Q4 GDP Y/Y growth could hit above 4.4%, then the full-year target of around 5% could be achieved, according to Reuters.
China said it firmly opposes export restrictions imposed by the US on advanced AI chips, according to the Chinese embassy in Washington.
BoJ is reportedly considering using the returns from its ETF purchases to shore up finances prior to an eventual exit from monetary easing, via Nikkei.
Former BoJ member Sakurai says BoJ could end negative rates by year-end; BoJ’s negative rates may be scrapped before YCC tweak.

DATA RECAP

Chinese GDP QQ (Q3) 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 0.8%); YY (Q3) 4.9% vs. Exp. 4.4% (Prev. 6.3%)
Chinese Industrial Production YY (Sep) 4.5% vs. Exp. 4.3% (Prev. 4.5%)
Chinese Retail Sales YY (Sep) 5.5% vs. Exp. 4.9% (Prev. 4.6%)
JPMorgan lifts their China 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5.2% (prev. view 5.0%); Goldman Sachs cuts China’s 2023 GDP growth forecast to 5.3% from 5.4%.

2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS

WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

//NORTH KOREA/

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN/

end

JAPAN

end

3 CHINA /

CHINA/

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY

This once powerhouse is now in deep trouble:

Wolf Richter/Wolfstreet)

End Of Free Money Plunges German Construction Industry Into Crisis

WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

A black swan of sorts no one was ready for: Negative interest rates turned positive, and all heck broke loose in the property development sector.

We just got back from vacation in Franconia, Germany, where we wanted to taste the local culinary specialties and different beers, do some hiking, and do a lot of walking around the charming historic towns with their half-timbered buildings, some of them 500-plus years old, sandstone castles, and magnificent cathedrals.

In Germany, consumers, though still spending on experiences, have cut back on spending on some goods, and are no longer able to single-handedly make up for the downturn of some of the export industries that are losing business in China and the widespread crisis of the construction sector.

Unlike in the US, the German economy is not being fired up by gigantic deficit spending by the government. Deficits are relatively muted, by US standards. So Germany is now contemplating another quarter of mildly declining GDP. In Q2, GDP had 0% growth, following Q1 of -0.1%, Q4 2022 of -0.4%, and Q3 2022 of +0.4%.

End of Free Money plunges German construction industry into “crisis.”

The impossible happened in Germany, a black swan of sorts that no one was ready for: Negative interest rates turned positive.

It now actually costs money to borrow money. Which apparently came as a shock in an economy where negative interest rates were perceived to be the new normal. This is topped off by a massive bout of inflation – including construction cost inflation. And all prior assumptions went out the window.

There are innumerable construction projects all over the place –– medium- and high-rise office and multifamily buildings, industrial buildings, large-scale renovation projects of historic buildings, expressway expansion and interchange projects, other road construction, etc. They’re visible from the train, from the car, and on foot.

In Nuremberg – where I spent some time in the Old City, in some of the neighborhoods surrounding the Old City, and in the outlying residential area of Langwasser – there were construction projects everywhere, from fill-in projects in the Old City, to huge complexes of multifamily medium-rise buildings in other areas. This is far more construction than I’d seen during my last visit a dozen years ago and in my prior visits over the decades.

The German government – after opening the floodgates to immigration – has exhorted the construction industry to create 400,000 new apartments a year. That’s the government’s official target to deal with the surging rents that have turned into a housing affordability crisis, and that are further fueling inflation.

Actual construction is falling way short of the government’s target of 400,000 apartments; the current rate is about 300,000 units per year. And this is likely to get worse over the next two years, given the construction crisis.

Rental apartments are hugely important in Germany. Over half the households rent, and rents have become unaffordable.

But home prices – both single-family and condos – are now in steep decline, due to a different dynamic: Much higher mortgage rates, triggered by the ECB’s QT and rate hikes, following the multi-year price spike powered by the ECB’s QE and negative rates. I discussed this phenomenon here: QE Giveth, QT Taketh Away: German Home Prices vs. ECB Balance Sheet.

“Construction industry crisis” was term that kept cropping up in conversation and in the local news media.

The higher interest rates, when negative interest rates had been assumed to be the new normal, surging construction cost inflation, labor cost inflation, lower property prices, and difficulties in getting financing at all have caused widespread, let’s say, complications in the German construction industry. And due to the lower prices, the cost increases cannot be passed on to buyers.

Under these conditions – falling prices, surging construction costs, higher rates, and difficulties in getting financing – property developers are holding large tracts of land that cannot be economically developed, and that can be sold only at much lower prices, if buyers can be found at all. And they’re working on construction projects whose economic assumptions got wiped out by higher interest rates and falling property prices. All of these factors are leading to liquidity and insolvency issues.

Since July, there have been a series of insolvency and bankruptcy filings by major property developers, including:

Gerch Group, a Duesseldorf-based property developer with €4 billion in construction projects;
Development Partner, a Duesseldorf-based property developer, which specializes in office construction;
Euroboden, a Munich-based property developer, with big projects around the country, after emergency property sales had fallen through;
Project Immobilien Group, with about 60 big projects around Germany;
Centrum Group, which blamed a “toxic triangle” of higher interest rates, cost increases, and stalled investment.

The largest German residential property firm, Vonovia, wrote down its properties by €6.4 billion, blaming the drop in value on surging building costs, higher interest rates, difficulties in getting financing, and the widening gap between buyers’ and sellers’ price expectations, all of which are causing transaction activity to plunge. It warned that new construction developments are “barely viable.” In January, it had announced that it would not start any new projects in 2023, blaming inflation in construction costs and interest rates.

Given the crisis, building permits have plunged by 35% from the levels in late 2021, to the lowest level since 2012, on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the German statistical agency Destatis, a harbinger of industry activity to come.

No one needs more office towers, with working-from-home at least on a hybrid basis having gotten entrenched in Germany, same as in the US. And no one needs more retail spaces, with ecommerce taking over brick-and-mortar retail except in some segments, such as groceries, gasoline, and services such as restaurants, hair salons, nail salons, etc., same as in the US. And that’s the price to be paid for structural changes in the economy.

But multifamily construction is crucial in Germany to deal with surging rents and the affordability crisis. And the conditions to develop residential properties have become very difficult.

* * *

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely.

END

FRANCE

You were stupid to bring in these migrants and now i am afraid France will pay the price. It evacuates 6 regional airports after threats of attack

(zerohedge)

France Evacuates Six Regional Airports After ‘Threats Of Attack’

WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 08:50 AM

Six regional airports across France were evacuated on Wednesday after emailed “threats of attack,” according to The Telegraph, citing police sources.

The Lille, Lyon-Bron, Nice, Nantes, Toulouse, and Beauvais airports were all evacuated, causing travel disruptions.

“State security teams are on site,” a statement from Lille airport said.

Meanwhile, authorities at Lyon-Bron airport have already declared the bomb threat was a false alarm.

This comes after the Palace of Versailles was evacuated for a bomb threat on Tuesday. France remains on the highest alert after a suspected Islamist terrorist killed a teacher last Friday.

Also, the missile blast Tuesday at a hospital in Gaza, killing and injuring hundreds of Palestinians, has sparked anger across the Arab world (read: here).

In response to the bomb threats, shares of Air France-KLM dropped as much as 6%, while Paris airport operator ADP fell 4.4%.

Police said the threats did not affect Paris- Charles de Gaulle and Orly airports.

EU/UKRAINE

(Remix)

Idiots!!

EU Wants To Increase Ukraine Aid By €50 Billion Despite Corruption Concerns

WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 02:00 AM

Via Remix News,

The European Union plans to set up a fund called the Ukraine Facility, under which a new credit line for Ukraine would be opened in the amount of €50 billion for the period 2024-2027, but there are growing concerns about corruption.

EU budget commissioner Johannes Hahn.

The facility would provide assistance to Ukraine in three pillars. The first pillar would provide financial assistance to Ukraine, the second would support and finance investment, and under the third pillar, Brussels would help Ukraine plan the reforms needed to join the European Union. A specific feature of the Ukraine Facility is that frozen Russian assets would be confiscated and incorporated into the assistance model.

However, support for Ukraine remains a divisive issue in Brussels. Although the EU is keen to continue providing aid to a country at war, it is undeniable that Ukraine features sky-high levels of corruption and the “rule of law” fell far short of EU standards even before the war broke out, let alone during it. This came to the fore in Strasbourg during Monday’s plenary session when the Ukraine Facility was debated.

MEPs Michael Gahler and Eider Gardiazabal Rubial, the proponents of the report, said that the €50 billion credit line is a significant commitment by the European Union. They argued that Ukraine needs to improve corruption rates, the independence of its judiciary, the fight against oligarchs, and the fight against organized crime, but these efforts can be successful if complemented by the private sector.

Due to the corruption situation, several MEPs also expressed concerns about whether EU funds will go where they are supposed to. Roman Haider of the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) complained that while sanctions are not working and the European economy has failed, it is worth considering whether it is worth investing another €50 billion in Ukraine, a country that is corrupt at all levels.

At the end of the agenda point, Johannes Hahn, commissioner for budget and administrative affairs of the European Commission, spoke on behalf of the commission, reminding the critical voices that “we Europeans must clearly support Ukraine.”

The politician also said that so far €80 billion in aid had been made available to Ukraine in various forms, including military assistance, and that the EU would support Ukraine as long as it needed it.

end

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/HAMAS/GAZA/USA

6:20 pm Tuesday

Arab Leaders Refuse To Meet Biden, Jordan Trip Canceled, Protesters Surround US Embassy In Beirut

TUESDAY, OCT 17, 2023 – 06:20 PM

Update(1820ET): As expected, the fallout from the al-Ahli Baptist Hospital bombing has been swift, with a domino effect of negative consequences both for diplomacy and on the ‘Arab street’. The situation outside the US Embassy in Beirut is deteriorating tonight, with reports of riot police and tear gas being deployed against large crowds waving Hezbollah flags.

But more importantly, and just as Air Force One is departing Washington for Israel, the White House has canceled the entire leg of Biden’s trip to Jordan. The confirmation was issued within the same hour that Arab leaders announced they were unwilling to meet with Biden, given the US is Israel’s biggest funder and supporter.

Biden issued a statement “deepest condolences” to victims of Gaza “hospital explosion,” according to the White House official statement:

After consulting with Jordan King Abdullah II & in light of the days of mourning announced by Palestinian Authority President Abbas, President Biden will postpone his travel to Jordan and the planned meeting with these two leaders and Egypt President Sisi.

The President sent his deepest condolences for the innocent lives lost in the hospital explosion in Gaza, and wished a speedy recovery to the wounded.

So even before arriving in Israel, the Tuesday massacre – which Israel is actually blaming on Palestinian militants (specifically PIJ) – has effectively served to box-in Biden. France’s Macron has just issued a condemnation to boot, saying “nothing can justify targeting civilians” in a statement which appears to place blame squarely on the Israelis. Biden will now also face the pressure to join the chorus of international condemnation. “International humanitarian law is binding on all and must enable the protection of civilian populations. Humanitarian access to the Gaza Strip must be opened up without delay,” the French foreign ministry said in the statement.

Here’s what Jordan had to say:

“There is no point in doing anything at this time other than stopping this war,” Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said on Al Jazeera Arabic early Wednesday morning. “There is no benefit to anyone in holding a summit at this time.”

There are emerging reports that crowds are attempting to storm the US Embassy in Beirut, based on unconfirmed but widely circulating footage overnight (local time):

In Beirut, Lebanon everyone is heading towards the US EMBASSY. pic.twitter.com/Q6ncVoWLml— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) October 17, 2023

Alleged footage circulating showing US Embassy in Beirut being stormed by a huge crowd of angered Lebanese following the horrific Israeli strike on a hospital in Gaza.#Lebanon #Gaza pic.twitter.com/smtqv5cl3X— Robert Carter (@Bob_cart124) October 17, 2023

BREAKING: Protester place Palestine flag at US embassy in Lebanon, reports of tear gas fired at protesters pic.twitter.com/5BO5eoRqS4— Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) October 17, 2023

Also, things continue popping off around the Israeli Embassy in Jordan…

Watch: Jordanian security forces block protesters from attempting to storm the #Israeli embassy in Amman following a deadly attack on a #Gaza hospital.

More here: https://t.co/KfJNw90bl3 pic.twitter.com/YKRcrcJ80I— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) October 17, 2023

According to one US special forces veteran, now journalist:

I can’t recall ever seeing the Israeli government just completely lose control of the narrative they way they have recently. Their messaging/propaganda (depending on where you sit) is usually on point. https://t.co/yFTdwD0Ezm— Jack Murphy (@JackMurphyRGR) October 17, 2023

* * *

Update(1610ET): The IDF, and PM Netanyahu have weighed in on the Gaza hospital bombing, which killed and injured hundreds:

Tal Heinrich, a spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told CNN Tuesday that the “IDF does not target hospitals,” adding, “we only target Hamas strongholds, arms depots and terror targets.”

Heinrich’s comments came after Palestinian officials said that preliminary estimates indicate between 200 to 300 people were killed in an Israeli strike on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City.

An analysis of IDF operational systems indicates that a barrage of rockets was fired by terrorists in Gaza, passing in close proximity to the Al Ahli hospital in Gaza at the time it was hit.

Intelligence from multiple sources we have in our hands indicates that Islamic Jihad is…— Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) October 17, 2023

The IDF issued a statement based on a preliminary investigation, claiming that it was an errant missile fired from within Gaza itself. The IDF alleges that Palestinian Islamic Jihad fired the rocket in a “failed shooting” that was intended for Israel.

“According to intelligence information, from several sources we have, the Islamic Jihad [PIJ} terrorist organization is responsible for the failed shooting that hit the hospital,” the IDF statement said, as it appeared in English on the Government of Israel’s “X” account. PIJ responds:

PALESTINIAN ISLAMIC JIHAD SPOKESMAN DENIES ISRAELI ALLEGATIONS THAT THE MILITANT GROUP IS RESPONSIBLE FOR GAZA HOSPITAL STRIKE

Breaking: IDF Spokesperson

From the analysis of the operational systems of the IDF, an enemy rocket barrage was carried out towards Israel, which passed through the vicinity of the hospital when it was hit.

According to intelligence information, from several sources we have,… pic.twitter.com/hdQra9QZAm— Israel ישראל (@Israel) October 17, 2023

The international reaction has been swift, especially from regional heads of state, with Turkey’s Erdogan and Jordan’s King Abdullah being among the first to condemn the “war crime” and “massacre”. Abdullah said no one can be “silent” about it.

Large evening protests have not only erupted in towns across the West Bank, especially in Ramallah, but in Arab capitals from Tunisia to Amman. There are fresh reports that Israel’s embassy in Jordan is coming under attack. Large groups of demonstrators have also been seen headed toward the US Embassy in Beirut.

BREAKING: Dozens of protesters attempt to storm Israeli embassy in Amman, Jordan

pic.twitter.com/xbfI2UDOjC— Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) October 17, 2023

Intifada 3.0?… but with signs this could spread across the Arab world in wake of the al-Ahli Hospital bombing in Gaza City:

Regardless, this is a very dangerous mega-event. Ramallah now. pic.twitter.com/4SWTtoJoub— Daniel Seidemann (@DanielSeidemann) October 17, 2023

Scenes from Amman, again which could spread to many other countries as the Palestinian death toll continues to rise:

Hundreds of protesters try to storm the #Israeli embassy in Amman, Jordan moments ago. pic.twitter.com/LKCQt6GlyT— Ahmer Khan (@ahmermkhan) October 17, 2023

Meanwhile, in more breaking news…

WHITE HOUSE EYES $100 BILLION UKRAINE, ISRAEL AND BORDER ASK

Will this event be the spark that sets the whole region on fire? Whether what Israel is claiming is true or not, we may be witnessing the first rumblings…

Israel just made a horrible mistake, which will unleash a new major war in the region.

Israel made the impossible possible.
Factions who were fighting yesterday in Syria or the Afghan and Iranian forces. They actually could join tomorrow hands, while fighting Israel.— Paktیawal (@Paktyaw4l) October 17, 2023

President Biden is on his way to Israel in Air Force One as all of this is escalating fast.

Already, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has canceled a scheduled meeting with Biden, citing the “cold-blooded massacre”.

Hard to see how Biden’s meeting with Arab leaders in Amman will take place after this. And the optics of going just to Israel after the carnage in Gaza are also terrible. https://t.co/gQ4cfHHY0i— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) October 17, 2023

And in additional breaking news: Russia and the UAE have called for an extraordinary UN Security Council meeting after the strike on the hospital in Gaza, per Tass.

* * *

Update(1400ET): Horrific reports of a mass casualty bombing are emerging from Gaza, where a hospital suffered direct hit reportedly by Israeli airstrikes. Gaza’s health ministry has said there are at least 500 casualties in the aftermath of the hospital blast, with “hundreds of victims” buried under the rubble. Gaza sources also say that a UN-run school housing refugees was attacked.

Initially, local emergency officials said there were at least 200 killed in the mid-evening bombing of al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza City, but the count has been steadily rising. Now, per Al Jazeera: “The health ministry in the Gaza Strip says at least 500 people have been killed in an Israeli attack on al-Ahli Arab Hospital.”

The moment the hospital in Gaza was hit by Israeli airstrike pic.twitter.com/OTTdayOGoT— Ali Hashem علي هاشم (@alihashem_tv) October 17, 2023

Graphic scenes are emerging…

️Scenes from the bombing of Al-Ahli Arab Hospital in the center of Gaza City pic.twitter.com/wUAIKVZziX— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) October 17, 2023

Gaza’s Health Ministry says Israel killed over 500 people in a targeted strike on the Ahli Arab hospital.

Initial estimates had the death toll at 200-300. These are scenes from immediately after the Israeli strike. pic.twitter.com/lHkjZravJA— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) October 17, 2023

Photographs are circulating of bodies scattered (intentionally blurred) outside of burning hospital wings:

Now:

The Israeli military directly bombs the Arab Baptist Hospital in Gaza city.

Many casualties pic.twitter.com/kpdI8zVvpe— Younis Tirawi | يونس (@ytirawi) October 17, 2023

This humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding as President Biden is en route to Israel. Likely many of the victims of the hospital attack were women and children.

Certainly this greatly raises the pressure and the stakes for Biden, as the White House will have to ‘answer’ for this as Israel’s most powerful ally. No doubt the US administration is scrambling to prepare for how it will respond.

* * *

At this point, exchanges of fire between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and militants in south Lebanon, especially Hezbollah, have become a daily occurrence – and yet still a full assault from Hezbollah has been avoided. Many analysts have speculated that Israel could be holding off its expected major ground invasion of Gaza precisely to avoid provoking a ‘northern front’ from opening up.

But there are continuing signs the situation is sliding toward that feared two-front scenario, as the IDF has initiated a plan to evacuate all civilians who live within two kilometers of the Lebanese border. They said the repeat rocket and mortar fire make it necessary, also in preparation for potential greater military action.

The country’s National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA) will oversee transferring of Israeli civilians to state-funded guesthouses. In total a whopping 28 towns and communities will be evacuated.Israeli army Merkava tanks, file image via AFP/Getty

NEMA has listed them out as follows: Ghajar, Dishon, Kfar Yuval, Margaliot, Metula, Avivim, Dovev, Ma’ayan Baruch, Bar’am, Manara, Yiftah, Malkia, Misgav Am, Yir’on, Dafna, Arab al-Aramshe, Shlomi, Netu’a, Ya’ara, Shtula, Matat, Zar’it, Shomera, Betzet, Adamit, Rosh Hanikra, Hanita and Kfar Giladi.

Many of these in the last several days saw residents flee due to rocket fire from the other side of the border.

Hezbollah has issued new claims it has destroyed an IDF tank and other military assets. Already both sides have taken on a few casualties.

“Hezbollah carried out a number of attacks yesterday in order to try to divert our operational efforts [away from the Gaza Strip], under the direction and backing of Iran, while endangering the state of Lebanon and its citizens,” an IDF spokesman had said Monday.

“We have increased our forces on the northern border and will respond aggressively to any activity against us,” the IDF said. “If Hezbollah dares to test us, the reaction will be deadly. The United States is giving us full backing.”

️Hezbollah published a video showing them “targeting this morning, Tuesday 10/17/2023, a vehicle of the Zionist enemy army in the Metulla site, causing direct hits.” pic.twitter.com/BRhUdpB31E— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) October 17, 2023

Dozens of rockets have been launched from Hezbollah positions in the last days. Israel has in response shelled militant positions in Lebanon, but has also hit Lebanese residential areas, prompting people in the area to flee.

On Tuesday, Hezbollah announced that its fighters launched an anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) at a gathering of Israeli soldiers, which the group said resulted in “a number of casualties”.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s main state backer Iran has continued ratcheting the threats against Israel:

Whatever crimes the Zionist regime commits will fail to compensate for its disgraceful defeat during the Al-Aqsa Storm operation.— Khamenei.ir (@khamenei_ir) October 17, 2023

A series of statements from multiple sides point toward continued escalation, which could explode well beyond the Gaza crisis:

Israel Ministry of Health: “The war may last a long time, prepare an emergency stock of food for 4 months.”

Iranian Foreign Minister: “The expansion of the war to other fronts has begun to reach unavoidable stages.”

IDF Spokesman: “Israel is prepared on its own both in the north and in the south.”

Israeli Military Spokesman: “If Hezbollah commits a grave mistake, we will respond with devastating force never seen before.”

Iranian leaders have gone so far as to issue threat of ‘preemptive attack’ if Israel continues decimating Gaza…

JUST IN – Iranian Leader Khamenei in Rare Speech:

– “We MUST Respond to What is Happening in Gaza”

– “The usurper Zionist regime must be prosecuted.”

– “This should be realized by those who want Iran to stop certain Resistance groups, and they shouldn’t have any… pic.twitter.com/fz367ZDJvx— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) October 17, 2023

For now, the situation is expected to be contained given President Biden’s expected Wednesday trip to Israel. There’s widespread belief that Israeli will not go into Gaza with full force so long as the US leader is visiting.

Additionally, Israel is still facing condemnation and international pressure related to the Reuters crew which was fired upon: “On Friday, Issam Abdallah, a Reuters video journalist, was killed in southern Lebanon after missiles launched from the direction of Israel struck him,” writes the New York Times. “Six other journalists — from Reuters, Al Jazeera and Agence France-Presse — were also injured in the attack, which occurred near the village of Alma al-Shaab.”

END

They hurl protests against Israel yet it was the Islamic Jihad that fired the fatal rocket into the Gazan hospital

(9 pm est)//Tuesday

Arab Leaders Refuse To Meet Biden As Protests Rage Around The World After Gaza Hospital Strike

TUESDAY, OCT 17, 2023 – 06:20 PM

Update (2100ET): Wednesday is shaping up as quite a global day of rage as the following series of clips from major cities around the world demonstrates.

Iraq:

Baghdad, Iraq pic.twitter.com/ZgK8xuEELR— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

Turkey

Istanbul, Turkey pic.twitter.com/wZOjx9RSM8— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

Lebanon

Beirut, Lebanon pic.twitter.com/Y1P26RFXdq— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

Jordan

Amman, Jordan pic.twitter.com/kgUUvdaJec— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

Qatar

Doha, Qatar pic.twitter.com/6ZY7oI8D2h— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

Iran

Tehran, Iran pic.twitter.com/vkVDENQvE1— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

Spain

Barcelona, Spain pic.twitter.com/V3tqpLyGZw— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

Egypt

Cairo, Egypt pic.twitter.com/nqrcJTvUfJ— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

Yemen

Sanaa, Yemen pic.twitter.com/snqZXSVxo0— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

Germany

Berlin, Germany pic.twitter.com/7iZvOMDddf— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

Greece

Greece pic.twitter.com/xSH6bvaS13— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

Canada

Montreal, Canada pic.twitter.com/ozTrKk5KNO— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 17, 2023

Morocco

Rabat, Morocco pic.twitter.com/2azCPE0DkA— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 18, 2023

end

Last night:

ROBERT H TO US”

OMINOUS!!!

Hal Turner Radio Show – FLASH: Black flag is risen on Razavi Shrine – Islam is going to all-out war

We really do not understand what is occurring but what is happening can easily spin so much out of control
Take nothing for granted as tomorrow’s reality is no longer today’s.
Everything you know or understand can change without asking ?

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/flash-black-flag-is-risen-on-razavi-shrine-islam-is-going-to-all-out-war

end

This morning:

Biden In Israel, Agrees With Netanyahu: Looks Like The “Other Team” Did Hospital Strike

WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 08:25 AM

At a moment the whole region threatens to erupt, and as mass protests have continued across Arab capitals and in many other parts of the world, President Joe Biden arrived in Israel Wednesday pledging unwavering US support for Israel.

Breaking from other allies like France’s Macron (and some Europeans), who appeared to condemn Israel for the deadly al-Ahli Baptist Hospital bombing, Biden instead during his first meeting with Netanyahu since the crisis began sided with Israel’s narrative of events. “Based on what I have seen, it was done by the other team, not you,” Biden said.

“But there’s a lot of people out there who are not sure. So we’ve got to overcome a lot of things,” he added. The Israelis had the day prior emphasized they had shared their case, including intelligence they say they possess, with the Americans as Biden was en route in Air Force One to Tel Aviv.

Likely Biden’s comments were enough for now to satisfy the Israelis, who are under growing international pressure given the massive death toll of at least 200-300 Gazans at the hospital, many of them women and children; however, the “other team” reference is somewhat awkward a response – as it doesn’t directly name Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) or Hamas.

Later in the day, in a meeting with Netanyahu which also included members of his war cabinet in Tel Aviv, Biden as expected pledged that “We will continue to have Israel’s back as you work to defend your people.”

“We’ll continue to work with you and partners across the region to prevent more tragedy to innocent civilians,” said, and described the Oct.7 Hamas cross-border raid as “brutal, inhuman, almost beyond belief.”

BIDEN: “I asked the secretary of state when he and I were working in the Senate to write something for me and he said he wrote a line that I think is appropriate. He said, ‘It’s not we lead, it’s not just…’ Well, I won’t go into it, I’ll wait ’til later, taking too much time.”

Netanyahu then spoke of “this terrible, double-war crime against humanity” — in reference Israel’s claims that Gaza’s militant factions killed the hundreds of Palestinians at the hospital. Israel’s version of events is that an errant missile fired by the PIJ faction struck the hospital.

“While Israel seeks to minimize civilian casualties, Hamas seeks to maximize civilian casualties,” Netanyahu said. “Hamas wants to kill as many Israelis as possible and has no regard whatsoever to Palestinian lives – every day they perpetrate a double war crime, targeting our civilians while hiding behind their civilians, embedding themselves in the civilian population and using them as human shields.”

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has released what it says is evidence, in the form of intercepted communications, that it wasn’t Israel behind the attack:

“We saw the cost of this terrible war crime yesterday, when a rocket fired by Palestinian terrorists misfired and landed on a Palestinian hospital,” Netanayahu continued in his meeting with Biden. “The entire world was rightfully outraged – but this outrage should be directed not at Israel, but at the terrorists. As we proceed in this war, Israel will do everything it can to keep civilians out of harm’s way.”

Netanyahu further said “the civilized world must unite to defeat Hamas” and that “we will defeat Hamas and remove this terrible threat from our lives.”

After Arab leaders, including King Abdullah and Egypt’s Sisi, canceled planned meetings with Biden, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held a phone call with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas – who had also refused to meet with Biden. A readout said Blinken called “to express profound condolences for the civilian lives lost in the explosion at the Al-Ahli Anglican hospital in Gaza City.”

“The Secretary expressed continuing U.S. support for the Palestinian people, stressing that Hamas terrorists do not represent Palestinians or their legitimate aspirations for self-determination and equal measures of dignity, freedom, security, and justice,” the readout published Wednesday said.

As for the hospital massacre, it remains that no foreign investigators or even for the most part foreign journalists have access to the site at this point. Some mainstream media reports in the West have highlighted this fact…

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz while in Egypt meeting with Sisi has called for a “thorough investigation” into the attack, saying “we still do not know exactly what happened.” Anger continues to explode on the Arab street, after overnight fires were reported at the entrance of the US Embassy complex in Beirut.

end

“You’re Not Alone” – Biden Says Attacks On Israel Like “Fifteen 9/11s”

WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 10:37 AM

Update(1037ET): Biden emphasized during his remarks from Tel Aviv, “I’m the first US president to visit a nation during a time of war.” His talk was heavy on religious imagery, while recounting the Oct.7 Hamas terror incursion into Israel and the number of Jewish victims. He only briefly touched on the Gaza hospital bombing, but stressed that the US sees eye to eye with Israel’s assessment. “Based on the information we have seen today it seems to have been the result of an errant missile fired from a terrorist group in Gaza,” Biden said.

“Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people,” he at one point emphasized, while also asserting that Hamas uses civilians an “human shields” and places command centers and tunnels under civilian buildings. Biden, while briefly acknowledging the deep humanitarian crisis and suffering in the Gaza Strip and West Bank, unveiled $100 million in new US assistance for the Palestinians. But he qualified that aid will soon flow from Egypt to Gaza under the close eye of inspectors, and he warned Hamas against thwarting or stealing this aid. “If it happens it will stop the international community from being able to provide this aid,” Biden threatened.

He also demanded that the International Red Cross be allowed immediate access into Gaza to be able to visit the hostages and check on their condition. He renewed a call for a two-state solution.

Importantly, he affirmed that he will ask Congress “this week” for “unprecedented” Israel aid, after he early in the speech said that the Hamas attack on Israel resulted in a death toll akin to Israel’s population suffering “fifteen 9/11’s”.

* * *

Given his earlier performance as mumbler-in-chief…

…the jet-lagged, dementia-ridden POTUS’ address – amid potentially the most tense moment in geopolitics in decades – will be ‘interesting’ to watch’.

Watch live here (whoknow when he wiull actually appear, but he is reportedly due to speak any minute):https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-live-president-biden-delivers-remarks-tel-aviv

end

IDF tells world: This is how Islamic Jihad destroyed the Gaza hospital

The chief spokesman presented actual audio recordings in which Islamic Jihad members say out loud that they are responsible for the explosion.

By YONAH JEREMY BOBOCTOBER 18, 2023 10:04Updated: OCTOBER 18, 2023 10:35

IDF satellite footage above the explosion site at a hospital in Gaza(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Daniel Hagari on Wednesday laid out the IDF’s full comprehensive intelligence case to prove that an Islamic Jihad failed rocket caused the damage Tuesday night to a Gaza hospital, leading to a still-unclear, but large, number of Palestinian civilian deaths.

The chief spokesman presented actual audio recordings in which Islamic Jihad members say out loud that they are responsible for the explosion.

Hagari also presented a detailed video on top of earlier videos put out by Israel’s public relations apparatus showing different stages of the rocket’s trajectory and the layout of the hospital being hit.

The press conference was highly unusual in terms of making signals and other military surveillance intelligence available to the public, showing Israel’s realization that how the incident is perceived has strategic importance for global support or opposition to the next stages of the war, especially the anticipated ground invasion, which has already seemed on pause for nearly a week.

Hagari said, “The IDF has concluded an after-action review and confirmed that the Islamic Jihad was responsible for the strike,” on the Gaza hospital.

“We did an immediate review for all relevant branches of the IDF,” he said.

IDF satellite footage above the explosion site at a hospital in Gaza (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

Next, he said, “At 6:15 p.m., a barrage of rockets was fired by Hamas at Israel.” At 6:50 p.m., a barrage of 10 rockets was fired by Islamic jIhad from a nearby cemetery, he said. Further, at 6:59 pm., there were reports of an explosion at the hospital. According to our intelligence, Hamas checked reports, and itself understood that it was as Islamic Jihad rocket misfired and decided to launch a global media campaign to hide what happened, he said.

Hamas also inflated casualties, he stated.

Moreover, he said the PIJ rocket was fired from a cemetery next to the hospital and hit a parking lot next to the hospital which likely had terror munitions, which caused further damage.

He said there was visual evidence showing infrared imagery of the nearby parking lot.

The IDF also confirmed there was no IDF fire by land, sea, or air which could have hit the hospital.

IDF shares internal Islamic Jihad conversation on hospital blast

A rough summary of some of the internal Islamic Jihad conversation included statements such as:

“It’s from us? Who says this? They are saying the shrapnel from the missile is Islamic Jihad and not an Israeli missile. They shot it from the cemetery coming from behind the hospital. There is a cemetery behind it?”

On Tuesday night, Hagari had already given initially declared that “an analysis of IDF operational systems indicates a barrage of rockets was fired by terrorists in Gaza, passing in close proximity, to the hospital at the time it was hit. Intelligence from a few sources that we have in our hands indicates that the Islamic Jihad is responsible.”

end

The conversation translated into English

https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/gaza-news/article-768944

end

Saudi’s issue an urgent warning to leave Lebanon immediately and now. USA embassy begins their evacuation procedures.

Now it is Biden’s turn to act:

(zerohedge)

Saudis Issue Urgent Warning To Leave Lebanon “Immediately & Now” As US Embassy In Beirut Begins Evacuation

WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 11:40 AM

The US State Department has issued a rare ‘do not travel’ notice for American citizens in Lebanon. It is also allowing non-emergency personnel and family members of US government personnel at the embassy to depart the country “due to the unpredictable security situation”.

The updated advisory which first went out Tuesday has been raised to Level 4: Do Not Travel. The advisory lays out deteriorating safety “related to rocket, missile, and artillery exchanges between Israel and Hizballah or other armed militant factions.”

“On October 17, 2023, the Department authorized the voluntary, temporary departure of family members of U.S. government personnel and some non-emergency personnel from U.S. Embassy Beirut due to the unpredictable security situation in Lebanon,” it stated.

Additionally it noted “large demonstrations have erupted in the wake of recent violence in Israel and Gaza.” The advisory continued: “US citizens should avoid demonstrations and exercise caution if in the vicinity of any large gatherings or protests as some of these have turned violent.”

Starting Tuesday night huge crowds were seen headed toward the US Embassy complex in Beirut. People flying Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian flags were seen trying to storm the gate, and later fires were spotted at the gate and some outlying buildings. According to The Telegraph:

Rioters threw what appeared to be Molotov cocktails, according to reports, causing a fire to start at the embassy.

Protestors also blocked roads near the embassy and leading to Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport, the State Department said.

The US State Department described, “Protesters have blocked major roads, including thoroughfares between downtown Beirut and the area where the US Embassy is located, and between Beirut and Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport.”

It further warned that: “US citizens who choose to travel to Lebanon should be aware that consular officers from the US Embassy are not always able to travel to assist them.”

After Iran’s embassy in Damascus tweeted out yesterday “Time is Up” – Israel’s embassy in the US responded with a Matrix meme… in a dangerous and somewhat absurd moment:

The prospect of wider war is looming…

Iranian President Ebrahim Raissi has said that the US are “accomplices in the crimes” of Israel, a day after Israel bombed the al-Ahli al Arab hospital in Gaza…

In a speech, he said: “The bombs that fall on the population of Gaza are American … The world considers the United States to be complicit in the crimes of the Zionist regime.”

Other countries have also started warning their citizens to depart Lebanon – surprisingly with Saudi Arabia among them. Saudi Arabia has on Wednesday advised all of its citizens to leave the country immediately.

“The Embassy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to the Republic of Lebanon is closely following the developments of the current events in the southern Lebanon region, calling on all citizens to adhere to the travel ban and to leave Lebanese territory immediately for those who are currently in Lebanon,” the statement reads.

END

US Vetoes UN Resolution For Gaza Ceasefire As Biden Visit Fails To Calm Fears Of Wider War

WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 03:35 PM

Update(1535ET): The big controversy out of the UN Security Council on Wednesday is that the US vetoed a draft resolution calling for a humanitarian pause in Gaza, as Israeli airstrikes continue and ground forces are reportedly still staging for an invasion.

The draft resolution was proposed by Brazil and condemned “the terrorist attacks by Hamas,” urged the release of hostages, while calling for a “humanitarian pause” or ceasefire. 12 members approved the draft Wednesday, the UK and Russia abstained, but the United States shot it down.

US ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said she wanted US diplomacy to “play out” first, but also criticized the resolution text for not expressly upholding Israel’s right to self defense. Thomas-Greenfield slammed this aspect, saying in her explanation before the council:

“Colleagues, the United States is disappointed this resolution made no mention of Israel’s right of self-defense. Like every nation in the world, Israel has the inherent right of self-defense, as reflected in Article 51 of the UN Charter. Following previous terrorist attacks by groups such as al-Qaida and ISIS, this Council reaffirmed that right. This text should have done the same.”

In Tel Aviv, Biden was asked in follow-up to his speech earlier in the day why he is backing Israel’s denial of being behind the hospital bombing. Biden responded that it was due to “the data I was shown by my Defense Department.” And the White House national security spokesperson additionally issued the following statement:

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1714654402118832440&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fbiden-israel-agrees-netanyahu-looks-other-team-did-hospital-strike&sessionId=54363c1b3d16738b0150d479f60f4597f2252883&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=01917f4d1d4cb%3A1696883169554&width=550px

Bloomberg, meanwhile at the conclusion of Biden’s time in Tel Aviv issued the headline, Biden Fails to Calm Fears of Wider War in 7.5-Hour Visit

Now that Biden is flying out of Israel, that “imminent” ground invasion might take place after all. All eyes will also be on the northern border to see what Hezbollah does (and by extension Iran) in response.

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* * *

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The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has released what it says is evidence, in the form of intercepted communications, that it wasn’t Israel behind the attack:

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Netanyahu further said “the civilized world must unite to defeat Hamas” and that “we will defeat Hamas and remove this terrible threat from our lives.”

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DeSantis draws the red line on no GAZA refugees with the rest of the GOP field following suit except Nikki Haley. It would be disastrous if the USA allowed them in.

(zerohedge)

DeSantis Draws Red Line On Gaza Refugees, GOP Field Follows Suit (Except Nikki Haley)

TUESDAY, OCT 17, 2023 – 08:05 PM

Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClear Politics,

Just three days: That’s how long it took for Republicans to adopt a new orthodoxy on how the Biden administration should respond to Palestinian refugees fleeing the violence in Gaza.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis went first.

“I don’t know what Biden’s going to do, but we cannot accept people from Gaza into this country as refugees,” DeSantis said in Iowa on Saturday, establishing a red line that the other frontrunners for the Republican presidential nomination would soon adopt.

As many as 2 million civilians are without food, water, and shelter in Gaza as Israel prepares to invade the densely populated region in response to a deadly Hamas terrorist attack earlier this month. While the White House has backed Israel from the start, the administration has also pressed powers in the region to open a humanitarian corridor to escape the bloodshed.

The final destination of those refugees, Republicans now say, should not be the United States. But they did not slam the door in unison. In a split screen on Sunday, DeSantis and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley seemed to differ sharply on how the United States ought to respond.

Former President Trump, meanwhile, remained silent.

DeSantis reiterated his red line on refugees during an interview with “Face the Nation,” telling Margaret Brennan of CBS that “those Gaza refugees, Palestinian Arabs, should go to Arab countries. The U.S. should not be absorbing any of those.” And he reiterated his warning that, while “not everyone is a member of Hamas,” the culture in Gaza is so “toxic” that welcoming large numbers of refugees “would increase antisemitism” and “anti-Americanism” in the United States.

Haley rejected that broad characterization during a CNN interview Sunday, telling Jake Tapper that a large portion of Palestinians bristle under Hamas in Gaza.

“There are so many of these people who want to be free from this terrorist rule. They want to be free from all of that,” she said before adding that Americans have always been sympathetic to the idea “that you can separate civilians from terrorists.”

The former ambassador also called on Middle Eastern countries to step up and provide for Palestinians desperate to avoid the crossfire.

“Where are the Arab countries? Where are they?” Haley asked.

“Where is Qatar? Where is Lebanon? Where is Jordan? Where is Egypt? Do you know we give Egypt over a billion dollars a year? Why aren’t they opening the gates? Why aren’t they taking the Palestinians?”

When asked specifically if Haley believed that the United States should welcome refugees fleeing the crisis, a spokesman for Haley told RealClearPolitics on Monday that the ambassador “opposes the U.S. taking in Gazans” and that Haley believes “Hamas-supporting countries like Iran, Qatar, and Turkey should take any refugees.”

As poll numbers tighten in the race to be positioned as Trump’s possible, supporters of the Florida governor seized on that statement as evidence Haley had flip-flopped on the question. Hours later, when Trump said in Iowa that “we aren’t bringing in anyone from Gaza,” the DeSantis campaign suggested that the former president was plagiarizing DeSantis.

“Trump literally needs a teleprompter in order to finally catch up with a position DeSantis took three days ago on Gaza refugees,” DeSantis spokesman Andrew Romeo told RCP.

During a campaign stop in Iowa, Trump promised to update and enforce his travel ban to include anyone from Gaza. He went further, vowing to deny entry into the United States to anyone who adhered to “anti-American” ideologies. “If you empathize with radical Islamic terrorists and extremists, you’re disqualified,” he said. “If you want to abolish the state of Israel, you’re disqualified.”

Trump allies are fond of accusing DeSantis of copying and pasting the former president whenever the governor espouses policies adopted during the previous administration. This time, DeSantis supporters argue it is the other way around.

Ken Cuccinelli, who served as Trump’s deputy Homeland Security secretary, told RCP that DeSantis had become “the standard-bearer for standing with Israel and protecting American citizens.”

An immigration hawk and chairman of the pro-DeSantis super PAC, Never Back Down, Cuccinelli said that DeSantis “took the position to ban importing Gaza’s population without hesitation while everyone else is now following his lead.”

First-time candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who is mired in fourth place in the polls, also added his voice to the emerging chorus of GOP voices. “Vivek would not allow refugees from Gaza into the U.S.,” a Ramaswamy spokeswoman told RCP. Instead, the businessman would look to help facilitate “their emigration to other countries, but this is not an issue where we should risk U.S. security or trade off the well-being of Americans here in the homeland.”

Support for Israel in the wake of the Hamas attack has been bipartisan and immediate. Conservative consensus on the refugee question took time to evolve.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, Jonathan Schanzer, a former terrorism analyst for the Treasury Department and a senior vice president at the Foundation for the Defense for Democracies, argued that the responsibility for sheltering refugees should fall on “Hamas’ enablers,” such as Iran, Turkey, and Qatar.

Some Democrats, like New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman, have called on the Biden administration to welcome refugees. “Fifty percent of the population in Gaza are children. The international community as well as the United States should be prepared to welcome refugees from Palestine while being very careful to vet and not allow members of Hamas,” the progressive “Squad” member said.

Populist conservatives such as political operative Ryan James Girdusky condemned that idea over the weekend and see the Republican rejection of those calls as part of a larger GOP evolution.

“For decades, Republicans have been begging politicians to pump the breaks on immigration, but refugees especially,” Girdusky told RCP before arguing that welcoming refugees from Gaza would be tantamount to “importing antisemitism and intolerance.”

“Their ideology does not change because they cross national borders. That’s not to mention the genuine fear that terrorists can enter as refugees, which has happened a few times in the past,” the author of the National Populist Newsletter added. “Republican candidates who want to expand refugee status to Palestinians are out of touch with their voters.”

The conflict in the Middle East comes at a moment when Republicans are increasingly divided on the role the United States ought to take on the world stage. And while there is widespread support for Israel among the GOP, many in the 2024 field have grown critical of military aid for Ukraine. Former Vice President Mike Pence said over the weekend that when you have “leaders in the Republican Party signaling retreat on the world stage,” enemies are more likely to attack U.S. allies.

He pointed specifically at “voices of appeasement like Donald Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Ron DeSantis that I believe have run contrary to the tradition in our party that America is the leader of the free world.”

For his part, DeSantis ended the weekend at Tampa International Airport. The governor signed an executive order earlier last week directing Florida’s Department of Emergency Management to begin logistical and evacuation efforts of Floridians stuck in Israel after commercial airlines began canceling flights, leaving U.S. citizens stranded in the region. On Sunday evening, nearly 300 Americans returned stateside on a jetliner chartered by the state of Florida with more scheduled in the coming days.

“I am proud of how quickly we have been able to activate resources and do what the federal government could not – get Floridians and other Americans back home,” the governor said in a statement.

END

6.GLOBAL ISSUES AND VACCINE/COVID ISSUES

GLOBAL ISSUES

GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES

A very important read!

(EpochTimes)

How COVID Vaccine Could Harm Your Gut, Leading To Brain Fog And Autoimmune Disease

TUESDAY, OCT 17, 2023 – 09:25 PM

Authored by Marina Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Diarrhea, constipation, and bloating are common problems that plague two-thirds of Americans.(Christoph Burgstedt/Shutterstock)

While gut problems are often written off as caused by poor diet and lifestyle habits, they may also be a sign of damage from infections such as COVID-19 and from COVID vaccination.

Internal medicine physician Dr. Keith Berkowitz, who has treated 200 COVID-vaccine-injured patients, told The Epoch Times that he found gut problems widespread among long-COVID and post-vaccine patients. However, patients often fail to bring up these issues.

Also, people may not be aware that symptoms such as fatigue and brain fog could be driven by gut problems, internist Dr. Yusuf Saleeby told The Epoch Times.

The Gut Is Linked to Everything

Poor gut health is associated with a vast range of diseases, including diabetes, obesity, heart disease, dementia, cancer, infections, autoimmune diseases, and even reproductive diseases.

The gut’s health often depends on its microbiome, comprised of 100 trillion microbes inside the large intestine.

A healthy microbiome has a diverse population of microbes with many beneficial bacteria. These microbes produce chemicals necessary for metabolism, nutrition, immunity, and communication within organs. They also help maintain the mucous layer in the gut, preventing infections from entering through the gut cells.

Poor diet, poor sleep, environmental toxins, alcohol and drugs, infections, and chronic diseases can damage the microbiome by depleting it of beneficial bacteria, leaving pathological bacteria in its place.

Loss of Bifidobacteria in Gut After COVID Vaccination

Infections with the COVID-19 virus have been shown to damage the gut microbiome and are associated with compromised integrity of the gut’s mucous layer, causing gut dysbiosis—a microbiome imbalance.

Reports have also shown that the COVID-19 mRNA vaccine is linked to reduced biodiversity in the microbiome.

A gastroenterologist and the CEO of genetic research lab ProgenaBiome, Dr. Sabine Hazan has found that test results of many vaccine-injured patients a month after vaccination show a lack of the probiotic Bifidobacteria. Dr. Hazan’s laboratory was the first to report the whole genome sequence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus using patient fecal samples.

Bifidobacteria are a group of bacteria under the Bifidobacterium genus and are among the first microbes to colonize the gut. They are believed to benefit their host’s health and are among the most common probiotics.

“Right now, we’re seeing a persistence [of Bifidobacteria loss] in some patients, not a lot of patients,” Dr. Hazan said. “But if people are suffering after the vaccine, they need to be looked at. They can enter a clinical trial right now … We have markers that we’re developing to identify those patients that are vaccine-injured, and we’re trying to find a signature microbiome in vaccine injuries.”

Her research team has since been following 200 vaccine-injured patients. She has observed drastic losses of Bifidobacteria and other species in some patients. However, there have also been rare cases where Bifidobacteria increased.

Dr. Hazan believes that the spike proteins coating the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, made in human cells after vaccination, kill Bifidobacteria, much like the virus can infect and kill good bacteria.

Like the COVID-19 virus, loss of beneficial microbes like Bifidobacteria may cause gut dysbiosis, directly linked to poor gut health and associated diseases.

However, gut dysbiosis is poorly defined in clinical diagnosis.

“In the clinical research looking at patients, we don’t have that definition yet,” Dr. Hazan said. “There is no guidelines to say gut dysbiosis is equal to this (specific thing).”

Dr. Hazan’s earlier works in COVID patients showed that Bifidobacteria abundance is linked to the severity of COVID-19 disease. Patients with more Bifidobacteria in their gut tended to have mild or asymptomatic disease, whereas patients with low or no Bifidobacteria developed severe disease.

Treating COVID-19 Injuries Could Start in the Gut

Many factors must be considered when restoring the microbiome. Doctors must ensure the right microbes are cultivated, that this happens in the right place, that it will not disturb other microbes, and that the gut can support the new microbes being colonized, Dr. Hazan said.

Restoring microbes in an unhealthy gut environment could be like growing an apple tree in the sand.

“It’s forensics of the gut microbiome,” she said.

For Dr. Saleeby, helping patients with COVID-19 injuries often starts with the gut since the gut is what allows patients to absorb prescribed drugs and nutraceuticals.

He gave the example of low-dose naltrexone, a common staple used among doctors treating long COVID and vaccine injuries.

“Low-dose naltrexone (LDN) will help the inflamed bowel and will help with Crohn’s disease and/or ulcerative colitis, and in exchange, when you start repairing the gut, you’ll find out that the LDN is absorbed better. So it may change the dose of LDN,” he said.

In gut dysbiosis, a person may develop small intestinal bacterial overgrowth (SIBO), which can interfere with treatment. Patients may also feel worse after starting therapy. This is because many of the first-line therapies used in treating COVID-19-vaccine injuries work by clearing spike protein and increasing the body’s ability to flush pathogens, Dr. Saleeby said. This can lead the immune system also to attack the overgrowth of bacteria in the gut, resulting in a sudden and massive accumulation of dead microbes in the body.

The body sees these dead pathogens as a threat, which triggers a sudden inflammatory reaction, causing more symptoms to flare up.

Reducing the treatment dosage and supplementing with anti-inflammatory therapies like hydration therapy, saunas, and Epsom salt baths can make these reactions more tolerable, said Dr. Saleeby.

Dr. Berkowitz also has patients who cannot tolerate typical postvaccine therapies. His patients, however, tend to exhibit signs of an overactive nervous system, which he suspects is linked to neurotransmitter depletion from the loss of beneficial bacteria.

These patients also become much more tolerant of postvaccine treatments once they are given hydration therapy and nutraceuticals that help calm the nervous system and rebuild the gut microbiome.

Damaged Gut: Neurological Problems

Research has shown that the gut and the brain are linked through their nervous system, and Drs. Saleeby and Berkowitz believe that the damaged gut could contribute to the brain fog, fatigue, and other problems seen in their patients.

Gut problems have long been linked to neurocognitive impairments.

For instance, some people develop severe brain fog “within 30 minutes” of eating a piece of bread because they’re gluten-sensitive or have celiac disease, Dr. Saleeby said.

Neuroinflammation driven by the gut could explain why patients with gut problems often develop neurocognitive problems. The brain and the gut are extensively linked through the gut-brain axis. When patients suffering from gut problems eat particular foods or chemicals that trigger disease, the gut may produce inflammatory chemicals that can penetrate the brain.

Another reason cause of neurocognitive impairment is the depletion of neurotransmitters. Many microbes in the gut use dietary nutrients to make neurotransmitters. Some of these microbes are lost in dysbiosis, and the gut becomes less capable of absorbing nutrients for use.

Therefore, neurological and cognitive problems may manifest. The neurotransmitters used in the brain are also made in the gut. Ninety-five percent and 50 percent of serotonin and dopamine are made in the gut, respectively.

Most neurotransmitters made outside the brain cannot cross the blood-brain barrier or be utilized by the brain. Yet research suggests a direct link between mental and cognitive health and microbiome health.

Dr. Berkowitz has noticed what he considers a depletion of gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), which can be made by bacteria in the gut, including Bifidobacteria. He believes the lack of GABA in the brain—an inhibitor to calm the nervous system—is why many patients display signs of an overactive nervous system.

He treats these patients with magnesium and melatonin, both of which stimulate GABA, and bovine colostrum, a milky fluid that seeps from cow udders the first few days after they give birth. Bovine colostrum has had promising results in repairing gastrointestinal damage in both animals and humans. Using these therapeutics, Dr. Berkowitz found that patients’ overactive nervous systems seemed to calm down, improving their symptoms.

“People describe their system going 100 miles an hour,” he said, and when you calm that down, the body can then repair itself. “Repair doesn’t happen when the body’s in a stress state … [since all the body’s] resources are focused on just survival.”

Damaged Gut: Autoimmune Conditions

Gut problems have also long been associated with autoimmune diseases, and doctors treating vaccine-injured patients have reported similar findings.

Autoimmune problems typically manifest in leaky gut, often medically referred to as increased intestinal permeability. In a leaky gut, the mucous layer protecting the gut from microbes is broken down, and microbes can then infect the gut lining and nearby blood vessels.

“If [the gut lining] is disrupted, it’s kind of like [breaking down] a castle wall,” Dr. Saleeby said. “If it gets breached, then the enemy can get in.”

During this stressful time of invasion, if a virus or bacteria makes it in, infection occurs. If the invader is harmless, like a piece of peanut or a benign chemical, an allergic reaction manifests instead. The body starts attacking these foreign yet benign antigens and, in doing so, may harm itself, leading to autoimmune disease.

Dr. Berkowitz has found that many of his patients with overactive nervous systems and gut problems also test positive for autoantibodies, signaling a potential autoimmune disease.

“Nerve pain, fatigue, muscle and joint issues are probably the most common issues [with these patients],” he said. Many also report skin problems such as rashes.

However, once prescribed treatment for their guts and nervous systems, the patients’ symptoms improve, and their antibody levels decline.

end

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

Biden’s Mideast trip upended by Gaza hospital strike; Israel blames Islamic Jihad rocket for Gaza hospital blast… Hundreds killed…Hamas blames Israel; if the reporting is true, there are many dead

children & this is and was the casualty of war that we prayed did not happen! my senses are numb, I do not know what to believe anymore; a dead child Arab or Jew is equally painful, just wrong!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 18

READ IN APP

US President Joe Biden’s wartime trip to Israel and Jordan faltered before it got off the ground Tuesday, after the Amman leg was canceled following a strike on a Gaza hospital that killed hundreds of people.

https://news.yahoo.com/bidens-middle-east-trip-riskiest-160150267.html

end

Is recombinant Spike protein (vaccine-induced) detected in the blood at least 6 months after COVID mRNA technology (e.g. Pfizer, Moderna, BioNTech) gene vaccination? Yes! see Brogna et al. below.

We are talking about recombinant and not wild-type spike protein; Spike fragment was found in 50% of the biological samples analyzed; PP-Spike was detected from 69 to 187 days post vaccination

DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 18

READ IN APP

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/prca.202300048

‘Mass spectrometry examination of biological samples was used to detect the presence of specific fragments of recombinant Spike protein in subjects who received mRNA-based vaccines.

The specific PP-Spike fragment was found in 50% of the biological samples analyzed, and its presence was independent of the SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody titer. The minimum and maximum time at which PP-Spike was detected after vaccination was 69 and 187 days, respectively.’

Remember, Patterson et al. found spike protein sub-unit S1 up to 16 months (1.5 years) post COVID infection e.g. levels of both intermediate (CD14+, CD16+) & non-classical monocyte (CD14Lo, CD16+) significantly elevated in PASC patients up to 15 months post-acute infection vs healthy controls (P=0.002 & P=0.01).

SOURCE:

Persistence of SARS CoV-2 S1 Protein in CD16+ Monocytes in Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) up to 15 Months Post-Infection

end

Air traffic controllers in America are lapsing, faultering on the job & risk massive deaths from plane crashes: “How a series of air traffic control lapses in America nearly killed 131 people”

In a year filled with close calls involving US airlines, this was the one that most unnerved federal aviation officials: A disaster had barely been averted, and multiple layers of failure

DR. PAUL ALEXANDEROCT 17

READ IN APP

How a series of air traffic control lapses nearly killed 131 people In a year filled with close calls involving US airlines, this was the one that most unnerved federal aviation officials: A disaster had barely been averted, and multiple layers of th…

Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/world/how-a-series-of-air-traffic-control-lapses-nearly-killed-131-people-3-2727126

‘On a foggy Saturday morning in February, an air traffic controller cleared a FedEx cargo plane to land on Runway 18L at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport in Texas. A Southwest Airlines jet was on the same runway, but the controller said it would…

As the FedEx plane descended through thick clouds, though, the pilots saw the silhouette of the Southwest 737. The two planes were seconds from colliding. One of the FedEx pilots commandeered the air traffic control radio frequency. He ordered South…

Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/world/how-a-series-of-air-traffic-control-lapses-nearly-killed-131-people-3-2727126

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay NewsWEF’s ‘Carbon Passports’ Restrict Public Travel to Fight ‘Global Warming’A new push is emerging from the World Economic Forum (WEF) that seeks to fight “global warming” by placing travel restrictions on the public.READ MORE Trump Vows to Break Gag Order by Speaking Freely, Says He’s ‘Willing to Go to Jail’President Donald Trump has declared that he’s “willing to go jail” as he vowed to break a federal judge’s gag order against him.READ MORE Murder Rates 60% Higher in Democrat-Run Counties, Study Finds A bombshell new study has found that murder rates are a staggering 60 percent higher in Democrat-run counties in comparison to those led by Republicans.READ MORE Tom Cotton Demands Deportation of Pro-Hamas Foreign Nationals: ‘No Place in the United States’Republican Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) has called on the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to begin deporting foreign nationals who express support for Hamas and the terrorist group’s attacks on Israel.READ MORE California Passes Law to Give Mexican Citizens Taxpayer-Funded College Benefits California’s Democrat Governor Gavin Newsom has signed new legislation into state law that will allow Mexican citizens to receive taxpayer-funded college tuition benefits.READ MORE Trump: ‘Incompetent Fool’ Biden ‘Will Drop to His Knees & Beg Iran for Mercy’President Donald Trump has issued a warning to the American people about the mounting nuclear threat from Iran.READ MORE Armed Female Homeowner Shoots Burglar in the Head with a Shotgun When a burglar attempted to burst into a California home, the armed female homeowner made sure she wasn’t about to become just another victim.READ MORE Facebook ‘Fact-Checker’ Suggests Israelis Were Unharmed during Hamas Terror Attack at Music Festival One of Facebook’s corporate media “fact checkers” has falsely suggested that no Israeli civilians were harmed when Hamas launched a terror attack at a music festival earlier this month.READ MORE ‘Squad’ Democrat Cori Bush Funnels Thousands in Campaign Cash to Husband for Shady ‘Wage Expenses’Radical “Squad” Democrat Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO) has been funneling thousands of dollars in shady campaign cash payments to her husband for a mystery role.READ MORE Yellen: America Can ‘Absolutely’ Afford Another War Democrat President Joe Biden’s Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has declared that American taxpayers can “absolutely” afford to fund another war.READ MORE VIEW MORE

NEWS ADDICTS

LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES

Moderna Executive: ‘Exploding’ Vaccine Injuries Are ‘Not Our problem’A top executive from pharmaceutical giant Moderna has testified before the Australian Senate that “exploding” numbers of Covid vaccine injuries are “not our problem.”READ THE FULL REPORT

Israel Ordered Military to ‘Stand Down’ during Hamas Attacks Israel reportedly ordered the military to “stand down” during Hamas’s unprecedented terrorist attacks on October 7.READ THE FULL REPORT

Trump Sues British Ex-Spy Steele Over Infamous Dossier A lawyer for President Donald Trump told a judge in London that his client intends to demonstrate that an infamous report authored by a discredited former British spy contained false allegations that damaged his reputation and jeopardized his first run for the presidency.READ THE FULL REPORT

Volodymyr Zelensky Denied ‘Solidarity Visit’ to Israel without Explanation Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier requested to make a solidarity visit to Israel to show support amid the nation’s war against Hamas.READ THE FULL REPORT

Poll: Great Majority of Americans Believe Biden Has Acted ‘Unethically or Illegally’After conducting a joint poll about the scandals involving President Joe Biden and his son Hunter, the Associated Press and NORC at the University of Chicago — one of the largest independent social research organizations in the country — presented the results in two very different ways.READ THE FULL REPORT

Moderna Executive: ‘Exploding’ Vaccine Injuries Are ‘Not Our problem’READ MORE…

LATEST NEWS:

Bannon: “Our responsibility will be to keep Jim Jordan in line”Read more…Senator Lindsey Graham Claims: ‘Former President Trump Made a Huge Mistake With His Recent Comments About Hezbollah’Read more…Zuckerberg Suffers Defeat As Yet Another State Bans His Election FundingRead more…Poll: Great Majority of Americans Believe Joe Biden Has Acted ‘Unethically or Illegally’Read more…Is This The Beginning Of U.S. Military Involvement in Israel? Biden Set To Visit Israel WednesdayRead more…Biden Admin Issues “Be Ready To Deploy” Orders — Ground Troops Imminent?Read more…Volodymyr Zelensky is Denied ‘Solidarity Visit’ to Israel without ExplanationRead more…Donald Trump Sues British Ex-Spy Steele Over Infamous DossierRead more…

EVOL NEWS…

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

Both Biden And The West Are Now Winging It

WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 10:20 AM

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Bond yields are pumping higher again following the release of US retail sales figures yesterday. These printed 0.7% in September, up from 0.6% for August, and well above expectations of 0.3%, while the ex-autos and gas reading was also 0.6% vs expectations of 0.1%. Later in the session similarly strong industrial production and capacity utilization figures were released, further highlighting the trend of resilience in the US.

10-year US Treasury yields jumped almost 13bps to 4.83% as a result, the highest daily close of the cycle. The 2-year yield also closed at a new high of 5.21%, after having touched a new intra-day high of 5.237% earlier in the session, and as a follow through, the 10-year JGB yield this morning hit 0.83%, the highest since 2013. Consequently, equities were down a touch yesterday, and both gold and oil gained on renewed tensions in the Middle East (more on that below).

Elsewhere it was a different economic story. New Zealand Q3 CPI undershot estimates, while in Canada we saw CPI actually print negative m-o-m, taking the y-o-y figure down to 3.8%, two ticks below the survey estimate. In Germany, the ZEW survey saw expectations at -1.1, up from -11.4 in September and much better than the -9 reading expected, but the ‘current situation’ remains diabolical at -79.9, still within striking distance of the 2020 lows when the entire economy was locked down.

Yet in Australia, the RBA’s October meeting minutes were taken as hawkish, putting the November meeting back into play for a resumption of the hiking cycle. Key lines were: “The Board has a low tolerance for a slower return of inflation to target than currently expected” and “upside risks were a significant concern given how long inflation is likely to remain above target”. Perhaps the RBA’s patience with stickiness in services price inflation, soaring unit labour costs, and a sinking currency are beginning to wear thin? Or maybe new Governor Bullock is not as relaxed as her predecessor about taking substantially longer than peer central banks to return inflation to target?

However, geopolitics leads again so far today.

The deadly explosion at the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza, where Al-Arabiya reports 800 people were killed, including many children, has inflamed the situation in the Middle-East to the extent that President Biden’s diplomatic mission to try to de-escalate tension now looks a pointless exercise. A planned summit between Biden, Egyptian President Al-Sisi, PA President Abbas and Jordanian King Abdullah has now been cancelled, leaving only the Israel leg.

The IDF blames a misfired rocket launched by terrorist group Islamic Jihad, while the Arab world claims the hospital was bombed by Israel. Through the fog of war, it’s hard to know the truth immediately, but most minds have already been made up – except, perhaps, for Biden’s, who is still in flight at time of writing. His view may impact on Israel’s room for the imminent ground war it is close to launching.

Even before that begins, protests have now broken out around Israeli and US embassies across the region, with some fearing for the stability of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. What’s more, the risk is now of further escalation from Iran and Hezbollah, the former vowing a “harsh response”, even including against the US, and the latter announcing a day of “unprecedented anger” today.

We can expect further pro-Palestinian demonstrations across the West this week. The depth of feeling will make it even harder for Biden to convince the left of his party to support Israel, particularly in the provision of lethal aid (which some reports suggest could immediately require up to $10bn). Yet that will be critical if Iran and Hezbollah make good on threats to open up a new front in the north: and recall that if Iran does get involved, that puts Rabo Energy Analyst Joe DeLaura’s predictions of $100/bbl oil before year end back into play, which in turn suggests further inflationary pressures from the supply side of the economy (and higher rates).

On the other side of the coin, Biden is already being pressured to do more. A bi-partisan group of 110 members of Congress have written to the President urging him to take a firmer stance against Iran by cutting off its oil trade (China won’t like that). The signatories have also asked for the Administration to put pressure on Qatar and Turkey, following signs of support for Hamas from those countries.

The Al-Ahli Hospital deaths may also make it more difficult for Biden to convince Western allies to show resolve in supporting Israel in its bid to root out terrorists in the Gaza strip. UK Labour leader, and presumed next prime minister, Keir Starmer has tweeted “international law must be upheld”, while European Council President Charles Michel commented that targeting civilian infrastructure contravenes international law.

Meanwhile, as the Middle East rages and the West recoils, Xi Jinping welcomes Russia’s Putin and a host of Global South leaders, ex-India, to his Beijing Belt and Road Forum to talk about what an alternative world order might look like. The ‘global’ Western press mostly failed to even cover it.

In short, both Biden and the broader west are now winging it.

end

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE

Japanese energy trader warns that the world is running short of LNG

(zerohedge)

Top Japanese Energy Trader Warns ‘World Running Short Of LNG For Energy Transition’

TUESDAY, OCT 17, 2023 – 08:25 PM

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) plays a pivotal role in the world’s changing energy landscape. By substituting dirtier fuels, LNG curtails carbon dioxide emissions and enhances air quality. This underscores its vital importance in the energy transition.

Bloomberg recently spoke with Kenichi Hori, president of Japanese trading house Mitsui & Co., who said global LNG demand will likely be much higher than forecasted and the current “pipeline of projects” won’t be enough.

“Announced projects in the world still won’t make up for the supply needed when considering the energy transition that will take several decades,” Hori said.

Hori is one of Japan’s top traders of LNG and believes, just like Chevron Corp. and Shell Plc, that the fuel will play a crucial long-term role in the energy transition. His comments follow a fracturing of the global LNG market as Europe no longer sources a majority of the fuel from Moscow but instead relies on the US and other countries abroad.

According to BloombergNEF data, global LNG demand is set to rise 3.4% annually over 2022-26, reaching about 444 million metric tons. This comes as countries and companies view LNG as one of the cleanest fossil fuels that can lower emissions. Bloomberg noted supply will be tight until 2026 – after that, new projects are forecasted to come online.

Hori pointed out his firm has “projects in the US, Middle East, and Africa” to ensure a diverse supply chain.

He added his firm is interested in signing a contract with Qatar. He stated the Middle Eastern country is an “important source of LNG” as Japan strives for further diversification.

Besides LNG, Hori invested $6.4 billion in an offshore wind project off Taiwan and exploring opportunities in e-methanol.

“All these projects are going to shape the future of our portfolio that is transitioning from a traditional energy business to a low-carbon-intensive era,” he said.

Last month, Lorenzo Simonelli, chairman and CEO of service company Baker Hughes, was quoted by Reuters at Gastech, the industry’s largest conference in Singapore, as saying, “Natural gas will continue to play a critical role as a bridging and destination fuel for the energy transition.”

The biggest takeaway is that LNG has a bright future as it becomes the ‘transition fuel’ as the world progresses to net-zero emissions by 2050.

END

The bomb which hit the hospital was fired by Islamic Jihad. There is no way there will be an oil embargo against Israel. It has enough oil anyway

(zerohedge)

Oil Surges After Iran Calls For Oil Embargo Against Israel

WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 07:18 AM

Oil prices spiked on Wednesday morning after Iran called for an oil embargo against Israel over its air strikes on Gaza. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said there should be an “an immediate and complete embargo on the Zionist regime by Islamic countries, an oil embargo against the regime,” Bloomberg reported citing a ministry statement on Telegram. He also urged Muslim countries to expel Israeli ambassadors.

Amirabdollahian made the comments in Saudi Arabia at a summit of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, called to discuss the Israel-Hamas war. The comments came as US President Joe Biden arrived in Tel Aviv in a bid to calm regional tensions and support Israel.

Oil traders are increasingly concerned that Israel’s war on Hamas will spread and potentially draw in Iran and its allies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Still, Israel is a small importer. And while other Middle Eastern energy producers, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have criticized Israel for its strikes on Gaza, they’ve not talked of halting sales to it or any of its allies.

Brent crude extended gains, rising as much as 3.5% following the comments. It traded 2.6% higher at $92.30 a barrel as of 7:15 a.m. ET.

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

end

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS

EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0545 DOWN 0.0006

USA/ YEN 149.66 DOWN .099 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2196 UP 0.0019

USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3639 DOWN .0013 (CDN DOLLAR UP 13 BASIS PTS)

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 24.79 PTS OR .80%

Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 40.82 PTS OR 0.23%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.29% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 40.82 PTS OR 0.23%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 24.79 PTS OR .80%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.29%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 1.96 PTS OR 0.01%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1946.75

silver:$23.21

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 106.02 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.

WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 11: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.647% UP 7 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.811% UP 2 AND 1//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.058 UP 5 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.983 UP 10 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.925 UP 4 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0539 DOWN 0.0034 or 34 basis points

USA/Japan: 149.78 UP 0.024 OR YEN DOWN 2 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2148 DOWN 0.0029 OR 29 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0037 OR 37 BASIS pts to 1.3690

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.3172

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.3285)

TURKISH LIRA: 28.02 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.811…VERY DANGEROUS

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 6 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.909% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 5.012 UP 7 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.227 UP 4 BASIS PTS.

Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 87.21 POINTS or 1.14%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 156.78 PTS OR 1.03%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 63.71 PTS OR 0.91%

Spain IBEX DOWN 85.80 PTS OR 0.92%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 231.57 PTS OR 0.82%

WTI Oil price 88.09 12: EST

Brent Oil: 91.31 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 97.37; ROUBLE UP 0 AND 34//100

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.9240 UP 4 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.657 UP 7 BASIS PTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0534 DOWN 0.0038 OR 38 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2140 DOWN .0037 or 37 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.7095% UP 14 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .807%

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.91 UP 0.141 //YEN DOWN 14 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3707 UP .0055 CDN dollar DOWN 55 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 88.11

Brent OIL: 91.31

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS pts to 4.907%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS PTS to 4.988%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 2 PTS AT 5.218 %

USA dollar index: 106.37 UP 32 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.99 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 97.39 UP 0 AND 31/100 roubles

GOLD 1949.70

SILVER: 22.85

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 332.97 PTS OR 0.98%

NASDAQ DOWN 212.75 PTS OR 1.41%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.60 UP 01.72PTS (9.62)%

GLD: $180.87 UP 2.58 OR 1.45%

SLV/ $20.95 UP 0.03 OR 0.14%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Stocks Purged As Bullion & Bond Yields Surge On Biden, Beijing, & Banks

WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 04:00 PM

The Gaza hospital attack prompted ‘safety’ initially last night (oil, gold, & bonds higher in price), then China macro data’s upside surprise (on alcohol and tobacco sales) prompted some excitement but was offset by the property sector plunging even more as Xi addressed the BRI Forum.

Biden didn’t seem to calm things down at all in the MidEast as he stumbled through his address, and the China chip crackdown is becoming an issue.

Property was on Americans’ minds too as mortgage rates hit 8% (23 year highs), with housing data ugly (starts and rental-unit permits plunged) after homebuilder sentiment slumped.

FedSpeak was all aligned ahead of tomorrow’s speech by Powell. Waller will ‘watch and see’ if more rate-hikes needed; Williams says rates need to be more restrictive ‘for some time’. The Beige Book was ‘meh’.

Morgan Stanley (worst day since June 2020) upset the ‘banks are awesome’ narrative as credit loss reserves rose more than expected (and NIM did not rise as much as expected).

So with all that said, what did the market do?

Banks were not pretty…

Source: Bloomberg

The AI story is starting to show cracks, extending losses from the Biden chip crackdown and ASML comments…

Source: Bloomberg

As NVDA tumbled again today. Is that big head-and-shoulders pattern really going to play out again?

Source: Bloomberg

The GLP (Anti-Obesity) names dumped again…

Source: Bloomberg

‘Most Shorted’ stocks were clubbed like a baby seal, back to new cycle lows, erasing the squeeze of the last two days…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX topped 20 again intraday (but could not close above it for the 104th consecutive day)

All of which left all the majors down hard with Small Caps leading the slump…

Bonds were also dumped.

Comments from Fed’s Waller prompted a drop in the 2Y yield around 1245ET (but realistically his comments were more of the same – data-driven, inflation-fight not over, higher-for-longer, no cuts soon) with weight given to his comments on higher long-rates doing The Fed’s tightening job for them (which as we have noted previously is an idiotically reflexive argument). A strong 20Y auction extended those gains (and also pushed stocks higher) around 1300ET but that bump in stocks didn’t last. Overall, all yields were higher on the day led by the long-end (30Y +8bps, 2Y +1bps)…it’s been an ugly week so far with the belly underperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields topped 5.00% again (first time since Payrolls spike) but could not hold it…

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-cut expectations for next year continue to plunge (the last week has seen over 35bps of cuts removed from market expectations)…

Source: Bloomberg

There were some winners on the day…

Spot Gold topped $1960 – its highest since July…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices jumped again overnight after China and Gaza with WTI above $88.50 (in the front-month futs)

The dollar surged today, taking out last Friday’s highs, up to payrolls print levels…

Source: Bloomberg

And amid all this chaos, bitcoin was quiet with a failed test up to $29k…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, is gold the new ‘fear index’?

Source: Bloomberg

It has systemically decoupled from real rates for sure. Have Central Banks lost control

EARLY MORNING TRADING/

TUCKER CARLSON..

end

II USA DATA

Housing starts slump in September due to higher interest rates. Rental permits plunge!Home builder confidence crumbles

(zerohedge)

Housing Starts Slump In September; Rental Permits Plunge As Homebuilder Confidence Crumbles

WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 08:44 AM

If yesterday’s plunge in the NAHB sentiment survey is anything to go by, this morning’s starts and permits data should be a shitshow.

Expectations were extremely mixed with Starts expected to jump 7.8% MoM after plunging last month and Permits expected to plunge 5.7% after soaring last month (so big reversals).

Permits beat expectations, but tumbled 4.4% MoM (-5.7% MoM exp) but Starts missed expectations, rising ‘only’ 7.0% MoM (+7.8% exp) worsened still by a downward revsision for August from -11.3% to -12.5% MoM..

Source: Bloomberg

This data reverses the recent trend in SAAR (but Starts remain weak)…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, multi-family rental permits plunged by the most since Nov 2022 while single-family permits rose for the 9th straight month. Multi-family unit starts rose by the most since Aug 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

For context, Sept multi-fam permits down 14% to 459K from 534K, lowest since Oct 2020, but Sept single-fam permits rose 1.8% to 965K from 948K, highest since May 2020

And Rental Starts bounced from 3 year lows..

Given the NAHB sentiment, it would appear build permits are set to keep falling…

Source: Bloomberg

So, why is construction employment still holding near its highs…

Will The Fed be pleased to see permits going down? Their hawkishness is driving homebuilders to produce less inventory? That will not help ‘prices’ and ‘affordability’…

end

III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES

As Mortgage Rates Hit 8%, US Housing Affordability At Lowest Level Since The ’80s

WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 01:40 PM

Update (1320ET): The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 8% Wednesday morning, according to Mortgage News Daily.

That is the highest level since mid-2000.

“Here’s another milestone that seemed extreme several short months ago,” said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer of Mortgage News Daily.

“The fact is that many borrowers have already seen rates over 8%. That said, many borrowers are still seeing rates in the 7s due to buydowns and discount points.”

As CNBC reports, to put it in perspective, a buyer purchasing a $400,000 home with a 20% down payment would have a monthly payment today of nearly $1,000 more than it would have been two years ago.

* * *

As Andrew Moran detailed earlier via The Epoch Times, the U.S. housing market has witnessed a slowdown in activity this year due to tighter supply, says Thomas Barkin, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Speaking at a Real Estate Roundtable event in Washington, D.C., Mr. Barkin explained that home prices have remained strong in an environment of higher interest rates and slowing sales volumes.

But the industry has been pining for lower rates, he noted.

“You may know that the last time the Fed tackled high inflation, in the ’80s, homebuilders sent Paul Volcker two-by-fours inscribed with the message: Lower interest rates,” he said.

In a letter to Fed Chair Jerome Powell by the National Association of Home Builders, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the National Association of Realtors, the central bank was urged not to pull the trigger on more rate hikes.

“Further rate increases and a persistently wide spread pose broader risks to economic growth, heightening the likelihood and magnitude of a recession,” the letter stated.

A treasure trove of data and research shows that further Fed tightening could exacerbate current conditions in the real estate sector, especially regarding affordability.

Housing Affordability Challenges

With supply failing to keep up with demand and mortgage rates marching toward 8 percent, housing affordability deteriorated to a fresh all-time low in August, new industry data show.

The NAR Housing Affordability Index clocked in at 91.7 in August, down from 93.9 in July – anything below 100 indicates a household with a median income does not earn enough to be approved for a mortgage on a median-priced home. This was the lowest reading since at least the early 1980s.

NAR figures highlighted that the typical family needed to earn $107,232 in August to qualify for a mortgage, based on a 20 percent downpayment. It was the third consecutive month of a six-figure headline number.

Meanwhile, the organization reported that the average family spent more than one-quarter (27 percent) of their income on annual mortgage payments.

Housing inventories have worsened over the past year. Existing home sales have declined in 13 of the last 15 months, including a 0.7 percent drop in August.

The challenge faced by the U.S. real estate market today is that homeowners are not erecting for-sale signs on their front lawns.

When the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to nearly zero during the coronavirus pandemic, mortgage rates crashed to their lowest levels on record.

According to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage collapsed to 2.77 percent in August 2021. For the week ending Oct. 12, 2023, it is close to a 23-year high of 7.6 percent.

Home prices have also surged since the public health crisis, rising nearly 30 percent to a median sales price of $416,100.

The mix of high mortgages and prices has prevented the new generation of homebuyers from achieving the American dream of homeownership. However, anyone who purchased a home before the U.S. central bank launched its quantitative tightening cycle is in good shape: a 2 to 4 percent 30-year mortgage rate and a residential property that has accumulated plenty of equity.

This past summer, a Redfin analysis revealed that 92 percent of homeowners enjoyed a mortgage rate below 6 percent, offering minimal incentive for owners to sell their properties and move to another home with a higher rate. Nearly one-quarter (24 percent) maintain a rate below 3 percent, close to a record high achieved in the first quarter of 2022.

Ultimately, it could be a tale of two housing market participants.

Andy Walden, the ICE vice president of enterprise research, warned that incomes would have to spike 55 percent or home prices would have to collapse 35 percent to restore affordability.

“Those are massive movements we’re talking about, and none of them are going to happen in a vacuum, and none of those one single factors are going to make the move,” Mr. Walden told CNBC earlier this month.

Mortgage Rates Now and Beyond

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) found that builder confidence in the real estate market for newly constructed single-family homes slumped for the third consecutive month in October. They are seeing lower levels of buyer traffic as some buyers, including the younger families, are “priced out of the market because of higher interest rates,” says NAHB Chairman Alicia Huey, a custom home builder and developer.

“Higher rates are also increasing the cost and availability of builder development and construction loans, which harms supply and contributes to lower housing affordability,” Ms. Huey added.

A construction worker carries materials as he works on a home under construction at a housing development in Petaluma, Calif., on March 23, 2022. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz noted that one of the primary tools available to solve the housing affordability crisis is contributing “attainable, affordably supply.”

“Boosting housing production would help reduce the shelter inflation component that was responsible for more than half of the overall Consumer Price Index increase in September and aid the Fed’s mission to bring inflation back down to 2%,” he said. “However, uncertainty regarding monetary policy is contributing to affordability challenges in the market.”

The September consumer price index (CPI) shelter index is up 7.2 percent compared to a year ago.

While the futures market is pricing in the Fed, keeping rates unchanged at the November and December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meetings, the central bank’s Summary of Economic Projections suggests officials are planning one more rate hike this year.

In addition, Treasury yields have been accelerating, with the 2-, 10-, and 30-year yields touching their highest levels in 16 years. The volatility in the bond market has played a critical role in the housing market because mortgage lenders tie their interest rates closely to Treasury bond rates.

As a result, Fannie Mae projects that mortgage rates will hover in the 7 percent range for most of next year before sliding to 6.7 percent by the end of 2024.

“In many ways, the housing market experienced four years of business in a two-year period between mid-2020 and mid-2022,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist.

“With ongoing affordability constraints and rising mortgage rates, much of that activity has essentially been given back. We expect the higher mortgage rate environment to continue to dampen housing activity and further complicate housing affordability into 2024.”

The FOMC will hold its next two-day policy meeting on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1.

END

Watch: Rubio Calls For Deporting Hamas Sympathizers From US

WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 10:45 AM

Authored by Steve Watson via Summit News,

Florida GOP Senator Marco Rubio has called for anyone found to be a sympathiser of Hamas to be deported from the U.S. and have their visa permanently revoked.

The law says if you are a supporter of a terrorist organization you shouldn’t even have a visa,” Rubio said during a Fox News interview.

He continued “So now, once you get that visa, if you identify yourself as a Hamas supporter, then you should have your visa canceled and you should be removed from the country.”

Rubio noted that if the FBI is capable of identifying January 6th participants at the Capitol, then it can do the same for people turning out at Pro-Palestine marches in the U.S. and praising Hamas.

“They were able to go and get all these people to take video and find out who all the people were that went in on January 6th to the Capitol,” Rubio said, adding “They spent a lot of resources identifying those people. I think if they wanted to, they could go through the roster of these organizations, the people that sign those letters, the people that were out there protesting.”

“To me, it’s very simple: If you are in this country on a student visa, a professor to teach journalist visa, you’re a visitor, and you come out and say I support Hamas, I support the slaughter of babies, you should be out of here and your visa should be yanked,” Rubio further urged.

Watch:https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-rubio-calls-deporting-hamas-sympathizers-us

Rubio’s call was echoed by Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton who sent a letter to DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas Monday, demanding that foreign nationals who express support for there terrorist group have “no place” in the U.S.

“I write to urge you to immediately deport any foreign national—including and especially any alien on a student visa—that has expressed support for Hamas and its murderous attacks on Israel. These fifth-columnists have no place in the United States,” Cotton wrote.

“Federal law is clear that any alien who ‘endorses or espouses terrorist activity or persuades others to endorse or espouse terrorist activity or support a terrorist organization’ is inadmissible and must be deported,” he added.

* * *

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In the age of mass Silicon Valley censorship It is crucial that we stay in touch. We need you to sign up for our free newsletter here. Support my sponsor – Summit Vitamins – super charge your health and well being.

Also, we urgently need your financial support here.

END

Biden Admin Drafts $100 Billion Ukraine-Israel Foreign Aid Package

WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 11:00 AM

The Biden administration is putting the finishing touches on a foreign aid package that would allocate $100 billion in US taxpayer funds to Ukraine, Israel and other ‘top security priorities,’ according to ABC News, citing two people familiar with the details.

According to the report, the “bulk” of the assistance will go to Ukraine, while roughly $10 billion will go to defense assistance for Israel following the Oct. 7 attack on civilians by Hamas terrorists from Gaza. A small amount is being set aside for border security, aimed at garnering the support of Congressional Republicans (and giving Democrats a 2024 talking point).

While support for Israel enjoys broad bipartisan support in the US Congress and among Americans in general (notwithstanding final consensus on the Gaza hospital blast), assistance for Ukraine has become a sticking point with House Republicans, while the House itself is rudderless due to their failure to elect a new speaker following the ouster of Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).

Any request from the White House, though, will need to wait for House lawmakers to elect a new speaker after the ouster of Kevin McCarthy from the post. Any spending measure would need to be taken up by the House first but the chamber is unable to complete any legislative business until Republicans coalesce behind a new speaker.

The sheer scope and ask of the package is likely to invite resistance in the House, where GOP differences on spending cuts and foreign aid have played out in the speaker fight. –Bloomberg

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), the leading candidate for speaker, has been hesitant on more Ukraine aid, while conservatives in the House have demanded that an Israel package be separated from any Ukraine aid. Jordan in recent days suggested that any further Ukraine assistance would need to be tied to increased oversight.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said on Tuesday that he expects the Biden administration to send the $100 billion request by the “end of this week,” and that the aid to Israel would include “military, diplomatic, intelligence and humanitarian aid.”

“We’d like to get the supplemental package moved as quickly as possible because the needs are great in both Israel and Ukraine,” said Schumer.

Deeply worried about ‘scorched earth’

According to ABC News, several Biden administration officials are worried that hardliners in Israel are pushing for a scorched-earth military response that would lead to a large number of civilian casualties (and again, the jury is still out on the Gaza hospital explosion which Israel claims was an errant Hamas rocket).

When asked about discussions, White House spox John Kirby said they aren’t advising the Israeli military on how to operate, and that he expects civilians to be protected.

“Since almost the very, very beginning here, we have been talking about how important it is for democracies, like Israel and the United States, to stand up for the law of war, to respect innocent civilian life, unlike Hamas. So this is a foundational element of the discussions that we’ve had with the Israelis for forever, and we’ll continue to do that going forward,” Kirby said on ABC’s “Good Morning America.”

Following lengthy meetings earlier this week between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Israeli counterpart, the two allies seemed to have reached some kind of consensus. Details of the aid package are now circulating among U.S. officials as Biden is en route to the region.

Budget experts say Israel’s assistance needs aren’t likely to be urgent due to a 2016 agreement that provides Israel $3.8 billion a year over 10 years. More pressing, they say, is Ukraine, which has run out of long-term funding as it seeks to fend off Russia. -ABC News

Pro-Israeli groups have also asked Biden for at least $500 million in grant funding to protect Jewish communities in the US – including synagogues and other community sites, do to alleged threats. It’s unclear if that will be part of Biden’s proposal.

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON

end

USA// COVID//VACCINE/

end

SWAMP STORIES

My goodness; what an absolute fraud!

(zerohedge)

About That Time SBF Accidentally Gave Beto O’Rourke $1 Million In Stolen Customer Funds…

WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 01:00 PM

On Monday, former FTX engineering chief Nishad Singh testified that FTX had used stolen customer money from Alameda Research to make political donations, even after learning it owed $13 billion to customers. In short, Sam Bankman-Fried was using customer funds to make political donations to Democrats, according to Singh’s testimony.

One of those Democrats was failed Texas gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke, who in November of last year reported returning a $1 million donation from SBF just four days before the November election because he was ‘uncomfortable receiving such a large, unsolicited donation.’

In truth, the adderall-addicted SBF (or one of his employees) fat-fingered what was supposed to be a $100,000 donation, and instead ended up being $1 million.

In January, the Washington Free Beacon reported that O’Rourke kept the $100,000.

As journalist Molly White (@molly0xFFF), who has provided amazing SBF trial coverage, noted on Tuesday via “X,” they FTX was able to get $900,000 back “through the application of social, political, and legal pressure,” according to SBF adviser Keenan Lantz, a top executive at “Guarding Against Pandemics” who helped handle paperwork for political donations and other operational matters.

“They’ll hang onto it until 11/4 – at which point the refund won’t be reported until January,” Lantz added.

…which brings up an interesting question posed by Twitter user Matt Beebe, who noted that O’Rourke’s fraud – secretly agreeing to hold the funds until November 4, allowed them to lie about how much money the campaign had raised headed into the election.

Note that O’Rourke bragged about raising $25.18 million in the latest period vs. Greg Abbott (R), who had raised ‘nearly $25 million.’

Some have even suggested it was money laundering.

END

TRULY A SWAMP

(SPERRY/REAL CLEAR WIRE0

Sperry: Leaker Of Trump Taxes Worked For Biden Beltway Donor That Just Won Big New IRS Contract

WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 03:45 PM

Authored by Paul Sperry via RealClear Wire,

The Internal Revenue Service recently awarded a lucrative contract to help modernize its computer databases to the same Washington firm, Booz Allen Hamilton, that employed the man who pleaded guilty last week to stealing and leaking thousands of private tax returns of wealthy Americans, including former President Trump, according to records reviewed by RealClearInvestigations.

The massive IRS theft is the third major breach of confidential and classified government information by Booz Allen contractors over the last decade – including Edward Snowden’s 2013 leak exposing the National Security Agency’s worldwide anti-terror surveillance program.

Cyber-thief Charles “Chaz” Littlejohn was working on an IRS contract for Booz Allen in 2018 when he stole more than two decades of Trump’s personal tax records from IRS computers. He later leaked them to the New York Times, which published negative stories on Trump’s long-sought returns several weeks before the 2020 election, which Trump narrowly lost in a handful of battleground states.

After the election, Littlejohn leaked a trove of sensitive IRS data on Elon Musk, Michael Bloomberg and other billionaires – including major conservative donors – to ProPublica. The left-leaning news site used them to write a series, “The Secret IRS Files,” about how the rich use loopholes and tricks to avoid paying taxes. Congressional Democrats cited the series in their push for higher taxes on the wealthy.

Trump lawyer Alina Habba said she suspects Littlejohn was an operative in a broader political conspiracy to sabotage the former president before the 2020 election.

“What Mr. Littlejohn did, I do not believe he did alone,” she said last week at the Washington courthouse where he pleaded guilty. Habba added that the leak probably “cost my client thousands of votes and was all by design.”

A Democrat donor, Littlejohn struck a deal with federal prosecutors in which he copped to a single count of disclosing tax information without authorization. Though facing a maximum of five years, his plea deal calls for an estimated range of eight to 14 months when he is scheduled to be sentenced on Jan. 29.

“That looked more like a Hunter Biden plea deal,” Habba said. House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-Mo.) agreed, saying Littlejohn is getting a “slap on the wrist.”

Booz Allen’s Name Kept Out of Court Papers, Press

The most profitable government contractor in the world, Booz Allen has been connected to a number of high-profile Democrats over the years, including former employee James Clapper, who served as President Obama’s intelligence czar. Clapper was involved in an intelligence community operation just weeks before the 2020 election to suppress information about Biden foreign influence-peddling found on his son’s laptop.

At least two Obama administration alumni sit on Booz Allen’s board. President Clinton’s IRS commissioner also holds a seat. In the 2020 election cycle, federal records show Booz Allen contributed a total of $238,776 to Joe Biden versus $85,657 to Trump. The company also gave almost four times more money to the Democratic National Committee than to the Repubican National Committee.

Federal investigators were closing in on the 38-year-old Littlejohn this summer when the Biden administration decided to rehire his former employer, Booz Allen, through a contract with a ceiling value of $2.6 billion to help overhaul the IRS’ IT operations.

The massive new IRS contract may explain why the Biden administration won’t identify Littlejohn’s employer by name in court papers and press releases about the case.

The Justice Department would only say that Littlejohn “served as a contractor to Company A, a consulting firm that serviced public and private clients.” The Treasury Department, which oversees the IRS and also investigated Littlejohn, has not identified Booz Allen as the firm, either. Nor have Littlejohn’s lawyers, who declined comment.

The Washington media have gone along with the blackout describing Littlejohn as an “IRS Contractor.” Even as they have reported in some detail on the mechanics of Littlejohn’s thievery – he uploaded data to a private server instead of downloading it to a flash drive which might set off IRS alarms – news outlets never explained the key question of how he had access to the tax returns in the first place: because he was working for Booz Allen. The New York Times reported that Littlejohn “was working for a company contracted by the IRS. The company that employed the contractor was not named.” The Washington Post described Littlejohn as a “financial consultant” and left it at that. Meanwhile, Politico has published at least three stories on Littlejohn without naming Booz Allen as his employer.

The identity of his former employer is not difficult to find on the internet. A Pew Charitable Trust bulletin dated Feb. 26, 2018 describes Littlejohn as “an associate with Booz Allen Hamilton’s finance and economic development practice.”

In a 2008 blurb Littlejohn wrote for the University of North Carolina alumni newsletter, he stated: “Upon graduating from Carolina in 2007, I went to work for the strategy and technology consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton in their civil finance division. The civil finance team works with the IRS … In my time at Booz Allen, I have had the opportunity to work on a workload transition project at the IRS.”

The dates track with the employment record prosecutors laid out in their charging document: “From 2008 to 2010, from 2012 to 2013, and from 2017 to 2021, Littlejohn served as a contractor to Company A.”

Asked if Booz Allen terminated Littlejohn in 2021, or if he left on his own, company spokeswoman Jessica Klenk said, “We’re not in a position to speak to that at this point.”

The massive IRS breach raises new questions about Booz Allen’s ability to protect sensitive government information.

In 2013, Booz Allen put Edward Snowden to work at the National Security Agency. That May, Snowden left the country with thousands of top-secret documents that he soon leaked to journalists, exposing the agency’s worldwide anti-terror surveillance program. Snowden fled to Russia and in 2022 was granted Russian citizenship by President Vladimir Putin. At the time of the breach, Booz Allen condemned it as “a grave violation of the code of conduct and core values of our firm” and vowed to investigate the matter.

But another rogue employee soon put the top Beltway contractor back in the spotlight. In 2016, Booz Allen computer analyst Harold Martin III was arrested for stealing other data from the NSA. To address the fallout, the company hired former FBI Director Robert Mueller to conduct an external review of its security procedures, including how it screens employees. “We are committed to doing our part to detect potential insider threats,” the company stated. Mueller presented his findings and recommendations around June 2017 – the year before Littlejohn stole thousands of private tax returns. In an interview with RealClearInvestigations, Booz Allen spokeswoman Klenk declined to say what reforms it implemented, if any, to safeguard such information. The McLean, Va.-based company employs more than 20,000 consultants with government security clearances handling some of the nation’s most confidential data.

Despite this track record of breaches, the IRS has trusted Booz Allen to help modernize its computer system. In late June, the IRS awarded the company part of a multibillion-dollar contract to update its databases, which involves consolidating roughly 400 different systems into a new, cloud-based architecture. “Booz Allen is committed to supporting IRS’ modernization and tax administration efforts for years to come,” the company said in a statement touting the awarding of the seven-year contract under the headline, “Applying IT modernization to enhance taxpayer experience.”

The IRS did not respond to requests for comment about Booz Allen. In a press statement following Littlejohn’s arrest, Commissioner Danny Werfel said the agency has “tightened security” in the wake of the leaks. In a separate public statement, a Treasury official added that “the American people have every right to expect the utmost integrity from those who are granted access to sensitive taxpayer information through their employment with the IRS.” Treasury’s inspector general is “still investigating” the case, according to a Department of Justice press release. Prosecutors have not offered a motive for Littlejohn’s crime. If they know why he leaked Trump’s tax information to the media, they’re not saying.

A search of Federal Election Commission records turns up small-dollar donations Littlejohn made to Democrats through ActBlue, a liberal fundraising platform. When he first started working for Booz Allen in 2008, he said he shared the firm’s “social mission” and that it gave him the “flexibility” to pursue “research I started as an undergraduate on agricultural markets in Uganda.”

A Pro-Democrat Family

Littlejohn was raised in an affluent Democrat household in St. Louis. He is the son of retired PR executive Steve Littlejohn and attorney Stefanie London, both of whom are Biden donors, according to the Federal Election Commission database.

His father, who also gave $900 to Barack Obama, has posted a number of anti-Trump tweets. Steve Littlejohn, who began his career in Wilmington, Del., is a fan of MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow. In 2017, he retweeted the liberal host’s false conspiracy theories about Trump’s “coordination” with the Russians to rig the 2016 election in his favor. The next year, his son stole Trump’s tax filings.

Littlejohn’s mother, who specialized in document retention and intellectual property protection during her law practice, previously clerked for the late federal judge Theodore McMillian, a Jimmy Carter appointee. She is the daughter of famed St. Louis public defense attorney and self-described “social liberal” Norm London. Records show Stefanie London, who started her education at the University of Pennsylvania, also supported the Senate campaign of liberal Democrat Beto O’Rourke.

Court filings reveal Littlejohn didn’t just steal Trump’s tax filings but also those of “entities and individuals” related to him. It’s not clear if the tax returns of Trump’s family members were also leaked. But investigators have the evidence. As part of his plea deal, Littlejohn agreed to forfeit to investigators his interest in about a dozen electronic devices and private web accounts. Investigators found one of the flash drives he used to store the purloined data hidden inside the lining of a wood and leather box that contained “an ornamental camel.”

Biden-appointed U.S. District Judge Ana Reyes invited Trump to deliver a statement at Littlejohn’s sentencing, which she set for Jan. 29. It is not immediately known if Trump will take her up on the offer. But after the New York Times published his tax records just five weeks before the 2020 election – in a story headlined, “Long-concealed records show Trump’s chronic losses and years of tax avoidance” – he railed against what he called the “fake news” media. Now the GOP’s 2024 frontrunner, Trump explained that he was “entitled, like everyone else” to take write-offs against income, such as “depreciation [deductions] and tax credits.”

DOJ has notified only 152 victims of Littlejohn’s crime. Thousands more high-net-worth taxpayers remain in the dark about whether the rogue Booz Allen contractor shared their most private financial data with the media, which still possess the confidential information. DOJ said it is working to identify additional victims, but rather than notifying them, it plans to set up a website where taxpayers can check to see if their tax filings were breached.

END

THE KING REPORT

The King Report October 18, 2023 Issues 7099

Independent View of the News

Biden admin set to allow Iran UN sanctions on ballistic missile program to expire: ‘Huge victory for Tehran’ (Not a parody!   Did Iran buy a lot of Hunter’s art?) Goldberg said the removal of U.N. sanctions on Iran’s missile program “will be a huge victory for Tehran that is simply serving as a reward for terrorism and proliferation around world.“… The Obama administration’s controversial 2015 nuclear accord, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), contained provisions on weapons sanctions against Iran that were allowed to lapse… https://t.co/thVjYotGAG

September US Retail Sales jumped 0.7% m/m, 0.3% was consensus. Ex-Autos are 0.6%; 0.2% was expected; Ex-Autos & Gas are also 0.6%; 0.1% was expected. Miscellaneous store retailers +3.0%
https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf

The NY Fed Services Business Index sank to -19.1 in October from -3.0 in September.

US September Industrial Production is 0.3% m/m; 0.0% was expected. Manufacturing Production jumped to 0.4% from -0.1%; 0.0% was consensus. Capacity Utilization is 79.7%; 79.6% was expected.

The October NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 40 from 44, a 10-month low.

NAHB: Homebuilder sentiment falls again as mortgage rates climb toward 8%: Homebuilders “have reported lower levels of buyer traffic, as some buyers, particularly younger ones, are priced out of the market because of higher interest rates,” NAHB Chairman…
    Homebuilders’ gauge of current sales conditions fell to 46. The gauge measuring traffic of prospective buyers declined to 26. And the component charting sales expectations over the next six months fell to 44. The three-month moving averages for HMI all declined across the four major regions. The Northeast fell four points to 50, the Midwest dropped three points to 39, the South fell five points to 49 and the West posted a six-point decline to 41. https://t.co/laQmT2ezbA

@nickgerli1: Here’s an ominous indicator for the Housing Market. The 10-year government bond now yields a higher return than the Cap Rate, or profit from operating a rental property. No wonder real estate investor demand is collapsing. More profitable to buy bonds.
https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1714352967048949769
    Sure enough – investor purchases are way down as a result. Particularly from the big Wall Street landlords. Who went from buying 2.3% of all houses in 2021 to less than 0.5% in 2023. Source: John Burns Research   https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1714353484693176645
    Investors are running fastest from the pandemic darling markets. The cities where all the people moved to in 2021 during the lockdowns. With investor purchases down 60% YoY in metros like Las Vegas, Jacksonville, Phoenix, and Atlanta. Source: Redfin
https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1714354084260524068
    But the real question to ask is: when will these investors start selling? The drop in purchases was Stage 1. Stage 2 involves investors offloading properties they can’t rent.

Bank of America reported good results: ESP of .90, .81 consensus. But big banks do NOT have to account for mushrooming losses in their portfolios. Banks can report the benefits of higher rates on interest income and shelve losses on ‘held-to-maturity’ securities.

@JackFarley96: Bank of America’s unrealized losses on held-to-maturity securities now exceed $130 Billion (Others see $96B)  https://twitter.com/JackFarley96/status/1714266188828606539/photo/1

U.S. curbs export of more AI chips, including Nvidia H800, to China
The restrictions could also affect chips sold by Intel and AMD. Other rules will likely hamper the sale and export to China of semiconductor manufacturing equipment from companies such as Applied Materials, Lam and KLA… https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/17/us-bans-export-of-more-ai-chips-including-nvidia-h800-to-china.html

Semiconductor stocks and Fangs got hammered in early NYSE trading. But, as we keep noting, trader schemes almost always trump fundamentals when there is excess speculation and liquidity in the system.

The NY Fang+ Index hit a low of 7520.634 at 9:51 ET. It hit 7684.18 by 12:22 ET and then retreated.

USZs traded sideways, but mostly positive, from the Nikkei opening until they sank after 22:00 ET. After 23:25 ET, USZs reverted to range trading. A modest rally ended at 3:40 ET; USZs retreated back into a tight range. USZs eased lower after the 7 ET US repo market opening. After the 8 ET US bond market opening, USZs rallied modestly. Alas, two minutes before the official 9:30 ET US Retail Sales Report of September release, USZ broke down. They finally hit a bottom of 109 17/32 at 9:52 ET.

The US 10-year hit 4.857%, +15bps on the day. The 2-year hit 5.212%, the highest yield since 2006.

USZs rebounded to 110 21/32 at 12:30 ET and then retreated. US bonds then rallied on this:
@academic_la: Sources in Gaza: hundreds of Hamas terrorists were killed in an explosion near Al-Ahly Baptist hospital in Gaza. Civilians are reported dead too. The IDF is not certain it’s due to their attack, and think an ammo depot may have inadvertently exploded there.

@JordanSchachtel: One minute before a rocket blew up a hospital in Gaza, Hamas announced on Telegram that they were launching their most robust weapons in the arsenal at Haifa. No rockets reached Haifa. High probability these hit the hospital and set off secondary explosions within building.
https://twitter.com/JordanSchachtel/status/1714350115312255019

@AmichaiStein1: IDF spokesman: The explosion at the hospital in Gaza was caused by a failed rocket launched by the Islamic Jihad. (Reportedly the 2nd largest terrorist group in Gaza after Hamas)

Farida Khan @_Faridakhan: I am Al Jazeera Journalist Farida Khan working in Khan Younis, Gaza. I saw with my own eyes that it was Hamas “Ayyash 250” Rocket. It was Hamas misfired Rocket. Al Jazeera is lying. I have video of that Hamas missile landing in the hospital.

@AmichaiStein1: Al Jazeera broadcast live the rocket launched by Islamic Jihad the hit the hospital in Gaza  https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1714381385916408308

Fox’s @TreyYingst: The region is on the brink of a much larger war. Every piece of info must be critically analyzed. Yes, I’ve seen the videos from the hospital and the ones claiming it’s a misfire. Hamas officials tell us it was an Israeli strike. The Israelis tell us they are investigating.

President Mahmoud Abbas Cancels Planned Meeting with Biden (Jordan cancelled, too): AP

@IsraelRadar_com: Angry masses trying to break into Israeli embassy in Jordan; National Security Council urges Israelis to leave Turkey urgently, raises alert to highest level (via @N12News
& @kann_news). Going to war vs. Hamas in Gaza was bound to be difficult. But Israel will keep going.

@ItayBlumental: The IDF spokesperson says he has a recording of a conversation between Islamic Jihad operatives that links them to the failed shooting at the hospital in Gaza. The recording is expected to be published,

ESZs traded soft from the Nikkei opening until the decline accelerated after the September US Retail Sales Report. ESZs hit a bottom of 4365.75 at 9:55 ET. The usual suspects then poured into ESZs and stocks because they are conditioned to buy for the earnings season rally.

ESZs hit a daily high of 4406.25 at 12:29 ET. They sank to 4383.50 at 14:53 ET. The usual last-hour rally appeared. ESZs hit 4403.25 at the NYSE close.

Positive aspects of previous session.
The DJTA rallied 118.91
Stocks recovered from early declines on conditioned buying for earnings season.

Negative aspects of previous session
Fangs, semiconductors, and related trading sardines declined sharply
USZs sank as much as 1 26/32; gasoline rallied
The US 10-year hit 4.857%, +15bps on the day.

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Why didn’t oil and gold soar earlier this week? Is someone managing markets?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4368.10
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4393.57 4337.54

@DrEliDavid: NY Times, the mouthpiece of terrorists, publishes slanderous fake news, yet again.
Shame on you @nytimes! (NYT: Israeli Airstrike Hits Gaza Hospital Killing 500)
https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1714373894558068970

NYT later: Israel and Hamas Blame Each Other for Blast at Gaza Hospital That Killed 500
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/17/world/gaza-news-israel-hamas-war

@toddstarnes: Remember, Hamas is notorious for hiding explosives inside hospitals and schools.

@EretzIsrael: The Jordanian King said his country and Cairo would refuse to accept Palestinians who flee Gaza. (Jordan is acutely sensitive to Palestinian migration because numerous non-Arab officials believe that a part of Jordan should be Palestine.)

The “Jordan Is Palestine” Idea Resurfaces Again  Nov 11, 2021 by Daoud Kuttab, Arab viewpoint
The “Jordan is Palestine” idea became—and in some ways continues to be—an existential concern for Jordanians…Trump Revives the Jordan Option…there is no doubt that Palestine and Jordan are forever connected. Palestinians and Jordanians are extremely close, have intermarried for generations, and retain a shared history… https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/the-jordan-is-palestine-idea-resurfaces-again/

@nexta_tv: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrived in Israel with a solidarity visit.   Olaf Scholz has arrived Tel Aviv to show Germany’s solidarity with Israel. The Chancellor will meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog, as well as relatives of German citizens…

@visegrad24: Olof Scholz and his team had to lay down on the ground to take cover as Hamas missiles were nearing the airport in Tel Aviv. Scholz was taken to a bomb shelter a few minutes later.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1714393292798874030

GOP senator calls for ‘immediate’ halt of US aid to Palestinians, says it will end up ‘in the hands of Hamas’ https://t.co/zlqO18nzgF

Xi’s Diplomatic Gamble on Putin Leaves Both with Much to Lose – BBG
Russia’s reliance on China has reached into every facet of its economy in the 20 months since the invasion of Ukraine. With the West severing trade ties, China’s exports to Russia have jumped 57% so far this year. The yuan accounted for almost half of the value of all foreign exchange trading in Moscow in September — up from just 0.4% in January 2022, according to… Bloomberg…China is now the largest importer of fossil fuels from Russia, with coal shipments more than doubling since 2020. ..
   The Russian leader’s attendance at Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative Forum, which opens on Tuesday, will be his first trip abroad… since the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against him in March for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. The visit will allow Russia to cement this critical economic support and apply pressure on Beijing to sign agreements on a new gas pipeline… Xi is seeking a reliable Russia to be a powerful partner in building his vision of an alternative world order. One based on an age-old mutual distrust of the West — especially the U.S. and its military allies…    https://www.lmtribune.com/world/will-xi-jinping-s-gamble-on-vladimir-putin-pay-off/article_c93305af-678f-5744-aacb-b4284d61f5fc.html

White House Eyes $100 Billion Ukraine, Israel and Border Ask – BBG

@charliekirk11: Biden is expected to ask Congress for $100 billion in Ukraine and Israel aid and arms. The request will include border security and Taiwan related defense requests.  Biden is attempting to use widespread support for Israel as leverage to fund Ukraine. It’s the DC way.

Yellen Says U.S. Can Afford Two Wars Because She Gets a 20% ‘Friends & Family’ Discount with Raytheon https://babylonbee.com/news/yellen-says-us-can-afford-two-wars-because-she-gets-a-20-friends–family-discount-with-raytheon

Lebanon’s Hezbollah Announces Wednesday “A Day of Unprecedented Anger” against Israel, Biden’s Visit to Israel – Reuters (Arabs protested at various US, UK, and Israel embassies on Tuesday.)

Reports claim Israel has delayed the Gaza land incursion because of this: @IsraelRadar_com: IDF tells forces on Lebanon border: Prepare for Hezbollah surprise, assume there will be no intel or early warning (via @kann_news)

GOP Rep. Jordan Fails to Win Speakership in First Round (20 GOP Reps voted ‘No’)
https://www.oann.com/newsroom/rep-jordan-fails-to-win-speakership-receives-under-217-votes/

@JMichaelWaller: The uniparty, the Washington establishment, Big Government types, and everything that abuses the citizen is coalescing to prevent Jim Jordan from becoming Speaker of the House.

Today –Due to conditioning over many years, the usual suspects are ignoring the horrid situation in the Middle East, the abysmal US political situation, and the US debt bubble. A critical mass of traders and operators adamantly wants to be long for the historic rally into and during early earnings reporting season. Today is the start of Fang results. Netflix and Tesla report after the NYSE close. The Street expects great results. Traders are likely to buy ESZs and select stocks ahead of the results. They will continue to buy dips until Fang reports or the finish of Fang reports ends the buying spree.

ESZs are -15.00 and USZs are +6/32 at 21:00 ET. Are equity types starting to ‘get it?’

Expected earnings: PG 1.72, TRV 3.02, USB 1.00, MS 1.30, NFLX 3.49, TSLA .74, DFS 3.22

Expected economic data: Sept Housing Starts 1.39m, Permits 1.45m; Fed Beige Book 14:00 ET; Fed Gov. Waller 12:00 ET, NY Fed Pres Williams 12:30 ET, Fed Gov. Bowman and Richmond Fed Pres Barking 13:00 ET, Phil Fed Harker 15:15 ET

S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4399; 100-day MA: 4407; 150-day MA: 4301; 200-day MA: 4227
DJIA 50-day MA: 34,290; 100-day MA: 34,305; 150-day MA: 33,956; 200-day MA: 33,826
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3828.58 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4473.50 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4281.23 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 4338.08 triggers a sell signal

Election integrity issues for November elections begin with absentee ballots
Counties in California, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania have already experienced issues with absentee ballots for November elections… Absentee ballots have been part of the election integrity discussion for years now. .. In 2005, the bipartisan Commission on Federal Election Reform – which included ex-President Jimmy Carter and former Secretary of State under President George H. W. Bush, James Baker – highlighted the issues that concerned them about absentee ballots.
    “While vote by mail appears to increase turnout for local elections, there is no evidence that it significantly expands participation in federal elections,” the commission wrote. “Moreover, it raises concerns about privacy, as citizens voting at home may come under pressure to vote for certain candidates, and it increases the risk of fraud.”
    “Vote by mail is, however, likely to increase the risks of fraud and of contested elections in other states, where the population is more mobile, where there is some history of troubled elections, or where the safeguards for ballot integrity are weaker,” the commission also said.
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/election-integrity-issues-november-elections-begin-absentee-ballots

@JMichaelWaller: Finally, a Member of Congress calls out the dictatorship of Qatar for supporting terrorism. @RepJackBergman says Qatar must arrest the Hamas terrorist leaders that the regime has allowed to plan and orchestrate the massacres of civilians in Israel.
    While there is no doubt that Hamas could not exist without Iran’s backing—as Secretary of State Antony Blinken has acknowledged—the simple truth is that the brutal and depraved Hamas attacks on Israel were ultimately overseen by terrorist leaders who openly live in” Qatar.
   Qatar funds and supports the jihadist terrorists while hosting American military forces to fight them, Rep. Bergman says in the @WashTimes. “Now that it has been confirmed that Hamas has murdered and kidnapped American citizens, that dual approach must end.”
    Rep Bergman is a retired Marine Corps three-star general: “nothing better illustrates Qatar’s dual approach than the fact that our brave men and women in uniform who have served out of Al-Udeid Air Base in Doha have gone on missions to combat terrorist groups funded by Qatar.”…
    Qatar sent an email to “DC think tanks—no doubt most or all of whom receive significant funds from Qatar—attempting to justify his country’s overt support of Hamas, explaining that doing so allows Qatar ‘to preserve and ensure our role as mediator in de-escalation.'”…
   Of course, Qatar is lying: “Any argument that Qatar providing sanctuary to Hamas’ leaders might keep the terrorist group in check went up in flames…. “As for mediation, why should we enlist Qatar to negotiate with mass murderers when it could just as easily arrest them?”…
“The US must give an ultimatum to Doha: You can be an arsonist or a firefighter. You cannot be both.”
   Senior Pentagon official worked for Qatar regime. Pentagon dragging its feet to avoid answering.    “Yousra Fazili, the Chief of Staff for the Comptroller and Chief Financial Officer of the Pentagon … served as a ‘strategic’ advisor” to Qatar ambassador. https://t.co/QFaR58VFFy

Hamas-supporting Harvard students beg for donations to ‘support their mental health’ after suffering ‘relentless bullying’ over supporting terror attack on Israel
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12637679/harvard-students-defend-hamas-request-donations.html

MRC’s Bozell, Schneider Blast Soros Empire for Funding Radical Pro-Hamas Groups
MRC Business also exposed a horrific 2007 pro-Hamas op-ed written by George Soros himself calling on America and Israel to “open the door to Hamas.”…
https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/business/nb-staff/2023/10/16/mrcs-bozell-schneider-blast-soros-empire-funding-radical-pro

@WhitlockJason: It should be no surprise that college and university campuses are ground zero for fomenting displays of anti-Israel sentiment. Why are so many people outwardly and aggressively siding with Palestine and Hamas? When you subscribe to the Left’s race-based and idolatrous beliefs, you have to be all in for every cause and tenet of the Democratic Party. You can’t choose your progressive cause du jour on an a la carte basis; you have to take the whole “racism bundle.” (It’s a cult!)

@ChicagoContrar1: We’ve been deluged with videos of Chicago gang members speeding through neighborhoods parading illegal weapons. It’s in celebration of the new CPD oversight panel’s decision to end the gang database, which gutted CPD’s anti-gang strategy. Gangs will now march across Chicago.  https://twitter.com/ChicagoContrar1/status/1714086781761527952

CNN: EasyJet flight canceled due to ‘defecation’ incident (@AnnCoulter: Still beats flying Delta.)
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/easyjet-flight-canceled-defecation-incident/index.html

@TheBabylonBee: Interest in Drag Queen Story Hours Wanes after They’re Renamed More Accurate ‘Man Wearing Lingerie Wants to Spend Time with Your Kids Hour’ https://t.co/qU6XqFDU2G

GREG HUNTER

see you on THURSDAY

5 comments

Andre · October 19, 2023 - 4:45 am · Reply→

how can you be so sure Hamas bombed their own hospital? Are you naive???

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FRANCE EVACUATES 6 REGIONAL AIRPORTS DUE TO THREATS – altnews.org · October 19, 2023 - 6:05 am · Reply→

[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]

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1. Faizan · October 19, 2023 - 5:44 pm · Reply→
  
  Schools in Garden City, Kansas , are on lockdown while police respond to an active incident at the local community college ‘We will provide updates when available,’ the police department said in a tweet on Wednesday morning.
  
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FRANCE EVACUATES 6 REGIONAL AIRPORTS DUE TO THREATS – news.freeptomaineradio.com · October 19, 2023 - 2:57 pm · Reply→

[…] by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog: […]

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zubair · October 19, 2023 - 7:19 pm · Reply→

The US economy’s strength and continued tight labor markets could warrant further Federal Reserve interest rate increases, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday in remarks that appeared to push back against market expectations that the central bank’s rate hikes had reached an end.

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