OCT 19/GOLD CLOSED UP $12.90 TO $1968.50 BUT SILVER FELL 8 CENTS TO $22.87 AS THE BANKERS TRY AND KEEP A LID ON ITS PRICE//PLATINUM WAS UP $7.95 TO $897.50 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $20.25 TO $1116.25/GOOD GOLD COMMENTARIES TODAY FROM EGON VON GREYERZ AND JIM RICKARDS//ISRAEL VS HAMAS AND HEBOLLAH UPDATES//USA TELLS CITIZENS LEAVING IN LEBANON TO GET OUT//GOOD BACKGROUND COMMENTARY FROM GATESTONE’S GLICK ON THE ISRAELI= HAMAS CONFLICT//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//SLAY NEWS/EVOL NEWS/NEWS ADDICTS//PALESTINIANS OCCUPY THE CAPITOL BUILDING BUT NO ARRESTS/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
167 C MAREX 2 190 H BMO CAPITAL 5 323 C HSBC 7 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 3 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1 661 C JP MORGAN 1 690 C ABN AMRO 10 1 726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 3 1 905 C ADM 3
TOTAL: 19 19
MONTH TO DATE: 9,677
JPMorgan stopped 1/19 contracts.
FOR OCT.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2023. CONTRACT: 19 NOTICES FOR 1900 OZ or .05909 TONNES
total notices so far: 9762 contracts for 976,200 oz (30.363 tonnes)
FOR OCT:
SILVER NOTICES:4 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 20,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 503 for 2,515,000 oz
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END
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $12.90 WHAT?????????
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.19 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//MAKES NO SENSE!!! / TWO DAYS IN A ROW
INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
Silver//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 444.529 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY SMALL SIZED 177CONTRACTS TO 123,463 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GOOD $0.11 GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. WE HAD A SOME SPEC SHORT COVERING EPISODE IN WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING.. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A STRONG SIZED 511 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 511 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.11). AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 356 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE SPEC SHORTS CAPITULATED AND TRIED AGAIN DESPERATELY TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALLS.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 533 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.530 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 15,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 0 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0 MILLION OZ TODAY+ 4.0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR //NEW STANDING IS THUS 2.620 MILLION OZ NORMAL SILVER DELIVERY + 4.0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 6.620 MILLION OZ/////STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 511CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL – REMOVED A HUGE 838 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 13 days, total 14,170 contracts: OR 70.850 MILLION OZ (1090 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 70.85 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 70.85 MILLION OZ (THIS IS GOING TO BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE//
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 177 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.11 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 533 ISSUED FOR OCT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. . WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 1.532 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 15,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP:+ A NEW ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0 MILLION OZ. THUS NEW TOTAL OF SILVER STANDING: 2.620 MILLION OZ+ 4.0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 6.620 MILLION OZ//// /// WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 356 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 511 CONTRACTS//LITTLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT A HUGE (511) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 4 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 20,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6945 CONTRACTS TO 446,526 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED 216 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 6945 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $32.55 GAIN IN PRICE//WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 16.562 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 4300 OZ QUEUE JUMP /NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 31.542 TONNES/ + /A HUGE (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 2209 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR$32.55 GAIN IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 12,163 OI CONTRACTS (37,83 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5218CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 446,526
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,163 CONTRACTS WITH 6945 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 5,218 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 12,163CONTRACTS OR37,83TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG 2209 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5218 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (6945) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 12,163 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 16.562 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4300 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 31.542 TONNES// /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND SOME TAS LIQUIDATION BUT HUGE SPEC SHORT COVERINGS DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2209 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
OCT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 55,845 CONTRACTS OR 5,584,500 OZ OR 173,70 TONNES IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4295 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 13TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 173.70TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 173,70/3550 x 100% TONNES 4.90% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 173.70 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 177 CONTRACTS OI TO 123,463 AND CLOSER TO OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A STRONG 533 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 533 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 533 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 177 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 533 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 356 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 1.78 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.11 GAIN IN PRICE …..(SOME SHORT COVERINGS)
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 53.32 PTS OR 1.74% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 436.63 PTS OR 2.46% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 611.63 PTS OR 1.91% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.28 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.3155 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3409 /Oil DOWN TO 87.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 90.42/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6945CONTRACTS TO 446,526 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $32.55 ON WEDNESDAY. OUR SHORT SPECULATORS TRIED TO COVER THEIR POSITIONS DURING COMEX TRADING WITH MINOR SUCCESS.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 5218 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 5218 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5218 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 12,163 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5218LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7161 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $32.55//WEDNESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A STRONG 2209 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: OCT (31.542) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 31.542 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $32.55) //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG GAIN OF 12,163TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. IT DID HAVE SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING WITH THE MASSIVE PRICE INCREASE.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 38.503 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (16.562 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4300 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTALS STANDING:31.542 TONNES ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $32.55. FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS, THE SPECULATORS HAVE GONE MASSIVELY SHORT WITH OUR BANKERS NET LONG. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOW HOW MUCH GOLD WILL THE BANKERS PULL FROM OUR SHORT SPECULATORS. SPECULATORS YESTERDAY ADDED TO THEIR HUGE SHORTS.
WE HAD REMOVED 216 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 12,163 CONTRACTS OR 1,216,300 OZ OR 37.83 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
9762 notices 976200 OZ 30.363 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: 0 oz
customer deposits: 0
total customer deposits: 0 oz
we had 1 customer withdrawals
i) Out of HSBC: 12,062.946 OZ
total withdrawals 12,062.946 oz
Adjustments; 0
total adjusted 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.
For the front month of OCTOBER we have an oi of 396 contracts having LOST 23 contracts. We had 66 contracts filed on Wednesday, so we gained 43 contracts or an additional 4300 oz will stand for delivery at the comex in this active delivery month of October. Our short speculators have been met with physical delivery demands by the bank. The only way they can obtain gold is through these EFP’s where delivery is taken in London on a T + 2 basis. We had the commencement of gold speculator short covering last Thursday and this action by the banker longs will continue until the specs have been annihilated
NOV LOST 9 CONTRACTS to stand at 1678
December GAINED 4942 contracts up to 363,942 contracts.
We had 19 contracts filed for today representing 1900 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 19 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9762 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (396 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 19 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,014,100 OZ OR 31.592 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of OCT.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT.contract month: No of notices filed so far (9762) x 100 oz + (396) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (66) x 100 oz) which equals 1,014,100oz standing OR 31.402 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 31.592 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE BUT GENERALLY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH. (OCT). Somebody is after a considerable amount of gold from the comex.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 19,851,099.308 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 9,977,732,254 (310.336 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,873,367.054 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,017.483 (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 249.377 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
OCT 19
//2023// THE OCT 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
597,565.340 oz DELAWARE JPMorgan
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,168,545.043 oz ASAHI DELAWARE MANFRA
No of oz served today (contracts)
4 CONTRACT(S) (20,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
21 contracts (105,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
503 Contracts (2,515,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: 0
total: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 3 deposits customer account:
i) Into Asahi: 585,829.200 oz
ii) Into Delaware 3910.343 oz
iii) Into Manfra 578,805.510 oz
total customer deposit 1168,545.043 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 135.6038 million oz/271.661 million or 49.92%
Comex withdrawals 2
i) Out of Delaware 955.840 oz
ii) Out of JPMorgan; 596,609.500 o
total: 597,565.360 oz
adjustments: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 37.638 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 271.661 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2023 OI: 25 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 6 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 9 NOTICES FILED
ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED 3 CONTRACTS AS WE HAD A QUEUE JUMP OF 15,000 OZ
NOVEMBER GAINED 1 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 414
DEC. LOST 472 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 98,023 .
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 4 for 20,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 52,261 //extremely weak
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 68,661 fair
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 503 x 5,000 oz = 2,515,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (25) and the number of notices served upon today 4 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the OCT/2023 contract month: 503 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT (25) – number of notices served upon today (4 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates to 2.620 million oz + 0 MILLION oz of exchange for risk today + 4.0 million oz prior//new totals: 6.620 million oz.
There are 37.094 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
OCT 19/WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.19 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $32.55 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.43 TONNES
OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 855.45 TONNES
OCT 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 855.45 TONNES
OCT 13/WITH GOLD UP $57.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES
OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES
OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $11.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $30.60 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.81 TONNES
OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.58 TONNES
OCT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.31 TONNES
OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES
OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES
OCT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.35 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.40 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.83 TONNES
SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.60 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
SEPT 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 15/WITH GOLD UP $13.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.055 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.70 TONNES
SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.01 TONNES
SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.22 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.69 TONNES
SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.81 TONNES
SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES
SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 848.24 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
OCT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.207 MILLLION OZ FROM THE SLV///// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 447.736 MILLION OZ
OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.664 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 447.730 MILLION OZ
OCT 13/WITH SILVER UP 90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.394 MILLION OZ
OCT 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.825 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.769 MILLION OZ
OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF .366 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.594 MILLION OZ
OCT 10/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 1.833 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.960 MILLION OZ
OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 0.916 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.127 MILLION OZ
OCT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.328 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.211 MILLION OZ
OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
OCT 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
OCT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 98 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
SEPT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.066 MILLION OZ
SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.492 MILLION OZ
SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449,033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 19/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.1 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.651 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.332 MILLION OZ
SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.681 MILLION OZ
SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1,009 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 11/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.373 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ
SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 444.529 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
Peter Schiff: The “Unsinkable” American Consumer Is Drowning In Debt
Every time retail sales come in higher than expected, the mainstream media breathlessly reports this as proof that the American consumer is strong and resilient. In his podcast, Peter Schiff explained that these retail sales numbers aren’t a sign of a strong economy. They just reflect Americans paying more for less. And what’s worse, they’re burying themselves in debt to do it.
The media hyped the report. CNN said it was a sign that consumers “aren’t tapping out just yet.” But Peter said the report was not actually good news.
First, it’s important to remember that retail sales data is not inflation-adjusted.
Everything costs more. Everything you buy is a lot more expensive. So, assuming that you don’t buy less, and of course, some people are buying less, but if you just buy the same stuff and everything costs a lot more, well of course, retail sales are going to go up.”
But this doesn’t indicate that the economy is thriving, and it doesn’t mean Americans are on a spending spree buying more stuff.
In many cases, they’re buying a lot less. They’re just paying more. And they’re buying fewer of the things that they want because they’re paying more to buy the things that they need.”
If you adjust the annual retail sales increase of 3.8% by the CPI, it drops to 0.1%. In other words, almost the entirety of the retail sales increase was due to rising prices. Nevertheless, the raw retail sales data creates the impression that Americans are happily spending money. Peter said you can’t necessarily draw that conclusion.
Americans aren’t happy that their grocery bill went up, and they’re probably not eating more or eating better. In fact, they’re probably trading down into lower-quality stuff. They’re just paying more.”
For instance, restaurant sales were up big. But if you’ve eaten out recently, you know the cost of everything on the menu has gone up dramatically. Even if you eat out less, you’re still spending more. Peter emphasized that none of this is a sign of a strong economy.
It is a sign of inflation. And that’s all this retail sales number is reflecting — inflation. It’s not about a strong economy, but about rising inflation.”
Obviously, if the government is underreporting how much prices are going up, then the retail sales are actually capturing the real increase in prices because it’s what the consumers are actually paying. It’s not what the government is pretending they’re actually paying, but what they are, in fact, paying. So, these retail sales numbers are probably a better reflection of inflation than the CPI.”
We shouldn’t celebrate this. It’s bad news. But the media keeps talking about the “unsinkable American consumer.”
He’s not unsinkable. He’s downing in debt! And the only reason he’s still floating is because he’s got two or three jobs. … This is not a report card on the success of the American economy, but on the failure. Because what it’s really measuring is the cost of living. People have to spend a lot more money to buy the same amount of stuff that they bought in the past.”
And as Peter noted, they’re buying a lot of this stuff on credit. Revolving credit – primarily credit card debt – surged by 13.9% in August. Americans now owe $1.28 trillion in revolving credit.
According to MarketWatch, “Americans appear to be relying more on debt to pay for their purchases. They are also using more ‘buy now and pay later’ plans.”
Peter pointed out that breaking down retail sales reveals the strain felt by consumers. Categories like food are up. But electronics sales are down.
[Americans] are spending more on shelter. They’re spending more on energy. They’re spending more on food. They’re spending more on insurance. They’re spending more on healthcare. They’ve got to make these expenditures. They have no choice. And the problem is when they finish buying all the things they need, they don’t have much left over for the things that they want.”
The consumer credit data reveals the same thing. While credit card spending surged in August, non-revolving credit tanked. That represents borrowing for big-ticket items. So, Americans are using credit cards to pay for the basics like food and gas, and they’re not making bigger purchases at all.
Peter goes on to explain why an economy built on consumer spending isn’t something to brag about.
A 1987 CRASH IN STOCKS WITH A GOLDEN DAWN FOR OIL AND GOLD
What a bloody mess! Well, economic collapses and wars always are.
But sadly it will become a lot messier!
We now have two dangerous wars, maybe we will have a global war. We have a coming collapse of stock markets and debt markets and a banking system which probably will not survive in its present form.
But there is always another side of the coin.
There will be opportunities of a lifetime not just to preserve your wealth but also to amass an incredible fortune. More later.
WHERE BLACK GOLD GOES YELLOW GOLD WILL FOLLOW
Oil and gold are best friends.
As the chart of the Gold – Oil ratio for 50 years shows, below, gold and oil move very much in tandem within a narrow range.
So if oil now goes up due to the Middle East crisis, gold will follow.
AS IF CLIMATE CHANGE, VACCINES, LOCKDOWNS, WOKENESS, STOLEN ELECTIONS, CBDC, DEBT etc WASN’T ENOUGH
As if all the above wasn’t bad enough, adding a Middle East war to this makes the crisis properly global and the step toward a Global or World War is very short even dangerously short.
We thought we had enough trouble with climate change, ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance), wokeness with 27 genders and canceling history, forced vaccines and lockdowns, high taxes, high inflation and debt that can never be repaid.
Hard to understand what happened to the world since I was born 78 years ago.
Add to that incompetent governments in the entire Western World and not a single statesman around. All of that is more than most people can cope with.
The US government and Biden have no policy, no ideology. They have also lost their manufacturing base and their military power is declining rapidly.
On top of that, the US is also spending money like a drunken sailor who will never sober up but only spend or drink more to drown his ever increasing debts and sorrows.
And then we started to get used to the “local” war in Ukraine which the poor Ukrainians could never win against a superpower.
We are now talking about the greatest uncertainties in my 78 year lifetime which started at the end of WWII 1945.
No one can predict where the current two wars will lead, although our worst fears can sadly be realised sooner than anyone could believe.
At this stage we cannot say if these crises will lead to a major destruction of the fabric of the world and the death of many, many people.
But what we can say with much greater certainty is that economic and financial risk is now at a level which is likely to lead to the destruction of wealth on a level never before seen in history.
I was born right in between the end of WWII in Europe and before it ended in the Far East. So I naturally don’t remember anything from that era. My father was an officer in the Swedish army at the time and Sweden unofficially assisted Norway which was occupied by the Germans.
But I can well remember my early life in Sweden which was a prosperous and stable country with a homogenous population. The 1950s were a period when church doors were open and the church silver could be left unprotected. Today, the copper roof, the gates and anything of value is long gone. Obviously the silver is either locked in or stolen. Police and teachers were greatly respected with ethical and moral values very high. Now people swear and spit at them.
But the stability of the early 1950s (except for the Korean War) soon led to wars in Vietnam, Middle East etc with the invasion of Hungary and Czechoslovakia and Yom Kippur in 1973 being the first Palestine conflict I can remember. Petrol prices in the UK where I lived at the time were 7.5 pence per litre.
That was the first major oil crisis I experienced. Today petrol in the UK is £1.90 per litre and unlikely to stay that low for long. But a 26X increase in the last 50 years of petrol (US gasoline) is probably going to be seen as a bargain in a few years time.
let’s start with your most important decision which you need to take toDAY
Buy as much physical gold as you can afford and then buy much more.
The current pattern of the Dow looks very similar to October 1987. If that is correct, a stock market crash could be imminent.
Stocks will be down 70-90% or more, in real terms, before this crisis ends.
Most bonds will become worthless, even Sovereign bonds.
Higher rates and defaults will see to that.
So get out of all general stock and all bond investments if you want to have any money left at the end of the coming calamity.
Interest rates will continue the long term, 20-30 year uptrend, obviously with corrections. No one will want to lend to a drunken sailor who can never get sober. Defaults and a banking crisis will lead to higher debts and higher rates. But the US with record borrowings can’t afford the rising interest costs. The dollar will be sacrificed.
So in all a perfect but vicious debt and currency cycle leading to guaranteed perdition.
The only question is how long it takes.
GOLD WILL BE YOUR SAVIOUR
We have been advising investors to hold important amounts of physical gold for wealth preservation purposes since the beginning of 2002. Since that time gold is up 6-8 times in most major currencies and much more in weaker currencies.
But as I keep telling colleagues and investors, gold’s real journey hasn’t started yet.
What I often tell our clients is that they mustn’t wish for gold to go up substantially.
Because when gold goes to the levels which I now feel certain it will, the quality of our lives will be considerably worse than today.
The factors that will fuel gold’s rapid rise to new substantially higher levels are obvious:
WARS
It is both fascinating and frightening to follow how regional disputes lead to superpowers quickly taking sides and lobbying or forcing its allies to follow suit.
There are always two sides to a dispute. One of my very important principles is that before you judge someone, you must walk three moon laps in his moccasins. (An old American Indian saying). But sadly most people including superpowers totally ignore such advice. The Russian argument is that the Minsk agreement was meant to avoid a deepening of the dispute and should have been followed. The US side is that Russia must be stopped at any price and Germany separated from a dangerous rapprochement with Russia. And Europe was given no choice but to follow the US.
As Bush Jr said to congress in 2001:
“Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists!”
The sanctions are severely affecting Germany and most of Europe but the worst consequences are still to come this winter. The Middle East conflict is likely to make the consequences exponentially greater.
Like with all wars, ordinary people on either side don’t want it. And democracy doesn’t exist when a nation goes to war. Both Ukraine and the US went to war without the consent of either the people or their parliaments.
THAT IS HOW WARS AND WORLD WARS START – Idiosyncratic leaders with sycophantic lieutenants take erratic decisions without understanding the consequences.
WHO IS ACTUALLY RUNNING THE US?
And when the leader is past his sell by date it makes the whole process utterly dangerous.
Everybody gets old and I am no spring chicken either. But if for whatever reason I don’t have the wits to resign when I should, I hope that my wife and my team will tell me so.
IT IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FOR A SUPERPOWER TO BE LEAD BY SOMEONE WHO IS NOT CAPABLE OF LEADING.
Even more dangerous when an unaccountable and unidentifiable group takes all the decisions.
UKRAINE AND PALESTINE – REGIONS UNDER CONSTANT STATE OF CHANGE
As Heraclitus, the greek philosopher said 2,500 years ago:
“Change is the only constant in life.”
Modern Ukraine was occupied by a number of different people throughout history like the Scythians, Greeks, Romans, Goths, Huns and the Slavs as well as the Mongols. Later Poland and Lithuania and the Ottomans were involved. In 1709 the Swedish King Charles the XII lost against Peter the Great of Russia due to the Great Frost (the coldest winter in 500 years) which weakened the Swedish Army just like during the Napoleon and Hitler invasions.
So Ukraine is hardly a stable country with deep roots and a homogenous people.
The same with Palestine, the Land of Israel, the birthplace of Judaism and Christianity which has been controlled by, among all, Ancient Egypt, the Persian Empire, Alexander the Great, the Roman Empire, Muslim Caliphates, the Crusaders, the Ottoman Empire and the British Empire after WWI. In 1948, Britain divided the region into Israel, the West Bank and Gaza.
The history is too long and complex to delve into the details here but suffice it to say that the modern split of the region has created a constant period of dispute (constant change again), misery, wars and deaths.
No one is prepared to wear the other side’s moccasins and the situation could now escalate to a world war between the Muslim world and the West. This is likely to result not just in a major war but also terrorism around the world.
Just like in Ukraine, the US and the West are more likely to send money and weapons to the Middle East rather than to peace makers.
It is unfathomable that the West chooses war over peace. This certainly does not bode well for a peaceful solution to the two conflicts.
OIL
Since most wars in modern times involve oil, the current ones are no exception.
There are two major camps controlling the global oil supply.
Around 22 million barrels of oil go through the Strait of Hormuz between Dubai and Iran.
It would be virtually impossible to prevent Iran from blocking this area off, stopping all shipments of oil and gas, if necessary with the help of Russia.
That would turn off 22 million barrels of oil or 23% of global supply. Enough to make the oil price go to $500 – $1,000 and paralyse the world.
DEBT AND CURRENCY COLLAPSE
I have since the 1990s been certain that the world economy would end in a debt and currency collapse. That is a very obvious projection since history always repeats itself, or rhymes, and every economic period in history ends this way.
The difficulty is to time the cycle but as I often stress, exact timing is less important. The key is to prepare early and buy the fire insurance or protection well before the fire starts.
So whether we call it a Fourth Turning like Neil Howe or a debt and currency collapse like von Mises, the end result is the same and devastating.
When I discuss my economic scenario most people (but obviously not our clients) call me pessimist or a prophet of doom and gloom.
But I am an optimist and consider life to be a wonderful journey. The key is to help other people, family, friends, and clients. Real happiness is making other people happy. It clearly doesn’t always work with people who believe you are a prophet of doom and gloom. But it does work extremely well for people who need help.
So enjoy life with family, friends, nature, music, books etc for as long as you can. Remember that the quality of your life is determined by how you deal with adversity.
JIM SINCLAIR – MR GOLD
Our good friend Jim Sinclair died last week of a heart attack. Since the 1970s he has been one of the foremost gold experts in the world. He traded the whole run from $35 in the early 70s to $850 in 1980 where he got out making substantial returns.
Above all Jim was Mr Gold with a superb understanding of the world economy, markets, politics, wealth preservation and of course gold.
Many people around the world followed his wisdom through his website JS Mineset.
I had the privilege of meeting Jim many times around the world. He was always gracious with his advice and support. He often told investors to “Go to Egon” and posted both my mobile number and private email on his site. At times we were totally inundated with potential clients. He had a tremendous following.
We will miss you greatly, Jim. I know that you wanted to experience the coming surge in gold that took longer than many of us expected. But you always knew that this move was inevitable. Still, your legacy will certainly be with the whole gold community and we will send you thankful thoughts regularly as gold continues to move up.
Is the world coming apart at the seams? It would seem so…
Of course, there are always wars going on somewhere and hot spots waiting to erupt. That’s the steady state of the world. But some periods are far more dangerous either because the conflicts are more intense, or there are more of them or both.
The best analytic approach in such situations is not just to compile a list of conflicts but to consider their interconnectedness and weigh the risks of escalation. Is it just another bad patch like the 1960s with Vietnam, or are we on the brink of something truly catastrophic like World War II?
In considering a catastrophic outcome such as World War II, it’s important to recall it was preceded by a long series of individual events, each bad in their own way, which culminated in the war.
These included the Japanese invasion of Manchuria, the Italian invasion of Ethiopia, the German takeover of Austria and annexation of part of Czechoslovakia and the Spanish Civil War. Most took these events to be unconnected.
Only a few statesmen, most famously Winston Churchill, saw these were all steps leading to a new world war.
The Linkage of War
Investors are not mere bystanders in these periods. Fortunes are made or lost by those who correctly see the linkages between disparate crises, and who have the predictive analytic tools to see where it is all leading.
Below is an overview of critical confrontations today with the suggestion that the linkages are strong, and the risks of escalation are high. Some recommendations for portfolio risk management follow:
Ukraine: I’ve written extensively about the war in Ukraine and readers are generally familiar with the outline. This is not the place to review the entire history of U.S. provocations since 2008 and Russian responses.
The situation today is that the Ukrainian offensive that was launched on June 4 has failed utterly. Russian defensive lines are intact, Ukraine has gained no appreciable territory except for a few deserted villages in the gray zone where their troops are being annihilated and equipment losses of armored vehicles have been enormous.
The U.S. response has not been to start peace talks. Instead, the U.S. continues to escalate with more weapons shipments and money. Biden’s goal is to keep the war going past the November 2024 election, so he does not have to admit another defeat.
The danger is that the U.S. resorts to escalation (F-16 fighter jets, Abrams tanks, sea drones, advisers on the ground), which leads to Russian responses (hypersonic missiles, a new offensive in the north) and that both sides are driven closer to the use of nuclear weapons by the escalatory dynamic.
Kosovo–Serbia. This is another in the long list of Balkan conflicts that go back to the origins of World War I in 1912–1913. The latest flashpoint is the confrontation between Kosovo and Serbia.
Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008, a move that Serbia has never recognized. Relations between the two areas had been stable due to mediation by the EU and U.S. Recently tensions have escalated due to claims of a Serbian terrorist attack in Kosovo and the massing of Serbian troops on the border.
Serbia is a longstanding ally of Russia. Serbia is surrounded by NATO members (Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary, Romania,, among others).
On the other hand, if Serbia could regain control of Kosovo, it would drive a wedge through much of this NATO encirclement. The risk is not only of a war between Kosovo and Serbia, but that it becomes another proxy war between the U.S. and Russia, and a sideshow to the war in Ukraine.
Again, the risks of escalation are high.
Israel – Hamas. The Hamas surprise attack on Israel from Gaza on October 7 was of unprecedented size and scope since the Yom Kippur War of 1973; in fact the new attack was on the exact 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War. For the first time since 1973, Israel has officially declared war. This is not an incursion, an incident or a terrorist attack. This was an invasion by Hamas and will be met with the destruction of Gaza by Israel.
Initial details including many I have received from Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) on the ground and former intelligence officers are horrific. Hamas fighters went from house to house and executed civilians, including women and children.
Some were killed, stripped and dragged through the streets. Perhaps 1,000 Israelis were killed on the first day and an unknown number taken hostage. They are not prisoners of war because they were not in military uniforms. They’re hostages.
The Israeli response will be massive and extremely violent. Israel hasn’t yet launched a large-scale ground campaign in Gaza yet, but one is expected. Again, the geopolitical risk is escalation. Hamas is backed by Iran and Qatar. Many Hamas leaders live in Doha, the capital of Qatar. Israel won’t hesitate to assassinate them there. A much wider Middle East war cannot be ruled out.
The implications for global energy markets are obvious. Recriminations are already being aimed at Biden because he recently released $6 billion in cash to Iran and has been making funding available to Hamas.
Syria – Turkey – U.S. I’ll touch on this theater briefly. U.S.-backed efforts to topple the Assad regime in Syria go back to the Obama administration. U.S. troops are in Northern Syria to promote this effort and to control Syrian oil output for the benefit of indigenous Kurds. Turkey views the Kurds as mortal enemies because they are trying to liberate Kurdish portions of Turkey to join in a broader Kurdistan.
Russia has been heavily involved in supporting Assad with clear success so far. Turkey has recently increased attacks on Kurdish positions in Syria. The U.S. recently shot down a Turkish drone. Russia is on full alert. Russia and Turkey are on friendly terms but the U.S. and Turkey are NATO allies.
It’s complicated but the risks of U.S. dogfights with Turkish or Russian aircraft and the risks of a Russian missile attack on U.S. aircraft are high.
China – Taiwan. A Communist invasion of Taiwan would result in a war larger than any of those described above, yet matters have been relatively calm in this region. That is likely due to upcoming Taiwan elections where a pro-China party has a good chance of winning.
China does not want to rock the boat ahead of the elections. Yet, this situation remains dangerous and potentially volatile.
I’ve just described five wars or near-wars that are currently underway. It would be easy to add to this list including hot spots in Azerbaijan, North Korea, Niger, India and elsewhere.
Without assigning numeric probabilities to each crisis getting worse, it’s a simple matter of statistics that when five or more conflicts are escalating, the odds of one spinning out of control are high.
It may be the case that we look back on this mosaic of proxy wars and hot wars as presaging a world war.
Investors Should Follow A Few Simple Rules
Follow events closely. Don’t take any of this for granted and never assume things will “just work out.” Sometimes they don’t. Again, the statistical odds that one of these conflicts will spiral are high. It’s not inevitable, but the odds are high.
Diversify your portfolio. That sounds obvious, but many investors don’t understand diversification. It doesn’t mean owning 50 stocks in ten sectors. It means owning allocations in five or more uncorrelated asset classes.
These can include stocks but should also include cash, private equity, alternative funds, gold, real estate, and high-quality notes such as U.S. Treasuries.
Remain nimble. Situations can change quickly. On the path to war, you should increase allocations to cash and hard assets and own some defense and energy stocks. If events are resolved without escalation, then a pivot back into stocks may be timely.
But this is not a time to “set it and forget it” in terms of portfolio allocations.
end
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
this is terrific for our precious metals as our bankers are naked short selling or facilitating such
(OilPrice.com)
Court ruling might end naked short selling
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-10-18 13:22Section: Daily Dispatches
By James Stafford OilPrice.com, London Monday, October 16, 2023
American investors have been taken for a trillion-dollar ride by naked short sellers, in what could turn out to be the biggest financial regulatory scandal in North American history.
While what is now an all-out war on naked short sellers intensifies, there is a new flashpoint on the front line — a potentially devastating ruling targeting those who are alleged to make illegal naked short selling possible: the facilitators — bankers and brokers.
On Sept. 29 U.S. District Court Judge Lorna Schofield of the Southern District of New York issued a ruling that has the potential to significantly disrupt Wall Street compliance and is a major first step toward protecting retail investors from fraud.
In Harrington Global Opportunity Fund Ltd. v. CIBC World Markets Inc et.al, Judge Schofield found that broker-dealers may be primarily liable for manipulative trading initiated by their customers because they serve as “gate-keepers” of trading on securities exchanges.
These broker-dealers have a “continuing responsibility to ensure that their customer’s order flow … is in compliance with all applicable rules, regulations, and laws and detect and prevent manipulative or fraudulent trading … under the supervision and control of the firm,” the judge ruled. …
The USA suspends sanctions on Venezuelan oil, gas and gold hoping to see free elections in 2024
(Bloomberg)
U.S. suspends some sanctions on Venezuelan oil, gas, and gold
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-10-18 19:48Section: Daily Dispatches
By Eric Martin, Andreina Itriago Acosta, and Fabiola Zerpa Bloomberg News Wednesday, October 18, 2023
The United States has suspended some sanctions on Venezuelan oil, gas, and gold production, as well as those imposed on certain trading of the country’s bonds, in response to the signing of an electoral roadmap agreement between the government of President Nicolas Maduro and the opposition.
The Treasury Department said today that it issued a six-month license authorizing transactions involving the oil and gas sector in Venezuela, along with a second one authorizing dealings with Minerven – the Venezuelan state-owned gold mining company.
It also removed a secondary trading ban on certain Venezuelan sovereign bonds as well as debt and equity issued by state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA. The ban on trading in the primary bond market remains in place. …
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.3155
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.3409
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 53.32 PTS OR 1.24%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 436.63 PTS OR 2.46%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 611.63 PTS OR 1.91 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 106.26 EURO RISES TO 1.0624 DOWN 11 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.846 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 149.82/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.9260***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 4.982*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 4.047…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.363
3j Gold at $1951.50 silver at: 22.90 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 38 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 97.10//
3m oil into the 87 dollar handle for WTI and 90 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 149.66// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.846% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8967 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9472 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.979 UP 8 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.063 UP 7 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.244 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.00…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 15 BASIS PTS AT 4.7510
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures Slide As 10Y Yields On Verge Of Tagging 5% Ahead Of Powell Speech
THURSDAY, OCT 19, 2023 – 08:18 AM
Futures dropped and global markets slumped again after treasury yields continued their relentless march higher (until something breaks), draining appetite for stocks as traders tracked earnings news and an intensifying diplomatic push to contain the Israel-Hamas war. Yields on 10-year US government bonds gained for a fourth day, pushing them just shy of 5% for the first time since 2007, while 30Y yields are well above 5% now. Many potential drivers for price action Thursday include weekly jobless claims data and a packed Fed speaker slate headed by Chair Powell at 12pm New York time…
… while the ridiculous explosion in US debt which has increased by over $600 billion in one month, or about $20 billion per day, is not helping.
As of 7:45am ET, US equity futures dropped 0.2% while Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index fell 0.8%. Markets are in wait and see mode until 12:00pm when Powell delivers remarks at the Economic Club of NY which will be very interesting given the recent run up in yields, the stronger data of late and the geopolitical events since we last heard from him.
In premarket trading, Tesla slid more than 7% in premarket trading after its third-quarter results missed already low expectations. On a brighter note, Netflix Inc. surged after posting the best quarter for subscriber growth in years. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Crowdstrike and Zscaler rose in premarket trading as Jefferies upgraded their ratings to buy from hold. The broker says the security software companies’ high-growth platforms “will continue to benefit from secular themes.” Meanwhile, Fortinet was downgraded to hold from buy.
Lam Research dropped 3.0% after the chip manufacturing equipment supplier reported a decline in revenue for the third-straight quarter. Analysts flag that Chinese market gains are likely unsustainable and see the acceleration in R&D investment as potentially pressuring margins.
Las Vegas Sands shares rise 5.1% after the casino operator reported third-quarter adjusted property Ebitda that came ahead of estimates. The company’s board of directors also authorized a $2 billion buyback program.
Netflix shares surged 13% after the streaming-video company posted its best quarter for subscriber growth in years. Analysts were positive about the company’s paid sharing feature reaping dividends and KeyBanc Capital Markets raised its recommendation on the stock to overweight from sector weight.
VMWare shares slid 6.8% after the Financial Times reported Chinese regulators may hold up its $61 billion acquisition by Broadcom, the latest chip deal to get snarled in Beijing.
Oil stocks will be in focus Thursday as crude fell after a panicking Biden realized his best friends now that oil prices are soaring again, are banana republic dictators like Venezuela’s Maduro, and the White House suspended sanctions on Venezuelan oil, gas and gold production. Occidental Petroleum Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and Schlumberger N.V. are lower by about 1% in premarket trading. Analysts estimate that Venezuela can produce about 200,000 more barrels a day, a roughly 25% jump in output.
In the Middle East, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is due in Egypt, a day after US President Joe Biden’s visit to Israel, while UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has started a two-day trip to the region. Investor attention turns later to US data for fresh readings on the economy. Chair Jerome Powell rounds off another busy diary of speeches by Fed officials.
“US Treasuries have not been fulfilling their usual safe-haven role in recent days, with strong US data trumping worries about a deepening conflict in the Middle East,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Instead, investors have been looking to gold and oil for a hedge against geopolitical risks.”
European equities fell for a third day as rising Treasury yields put pressure on risk assets across the world. The Stoxx 600 Fell 0.8% as real estate and automobile sectors led the drag, while technology and consumer products shares outperform. Here are the most notable European movers:
SAP shares rise as much as 7.1% after the German software company maintained full-year guidance and reported 23% growth in cloud revenue at constant currencies. The growth met expectations and eased concerns that an economic slowdown could put the targets at risk
LSE Group shares gained 1.1% after initially falling as much as 1.6% as the exchange operator delivered third-quarter total income that matched estimates. Analysts call an improvement in Annual Subscription Value reassuring
Inficon shares jump as much as 7.3% on higher sales guidance and better-than-expected results. These reflect the broad end-market exposure for the Swiss vacuum instruments manufacturer, according to analysts
Roche shares fall as much as 5.1% to the lowest since December 2018 after the drugmaker reported a decline in third-quarter sales and kept its outlook unchanged for the year
Nestle shares decline as much as 2.6% after reporting sales for the nine-month period that missed the average estimate. Lower pricing and slower growth in North America weighed on sales, analysts said
DNB Bank falls as much as 6.3%, the most since April, after the Norwegian lender reported a “low-quality” 3Q beat, which included misses to Net Interest Income (NII) as well as impairments
RELX shares slip as much as 1.3%, retreating further from recent record highs, as unchanged guidance from the information and analytics provider disappointed analysts
Nordea falls as much as 2% in Helsinki after the Nordic lender left its guidance unchanged in an otherwise solid third-quarter report, with several key performance indicators ahead of consensus expectations, analysts write
Rightmove shares fall as much as 14% after Citi noted the negative read across for the property listings portal on the news that US property information firm CoStar has agreed to buy rival OnTheMarket
Hargreaves Lansdown shares fall as much as 5.9% to their lowest intraday level since 2013 after a trading update for 1Q24 that Liberum said showed “sluggish” client growth
Mondi drops as much as 7.5%, extending declines into a fifth day, after the packaging and paper company delivered results for the third quarter that analysts say show weak demand. They also highlight a subdued outlook
Tate & Lyle shares drop as much as 3.6% to the lowest since March 2020. Barclays downgraded its rating on the ingredients maker to equal-weight from overweight, citing concerns over GLP-1 drugs
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks sank for a second day, driven by losses in Hong Kong, as concerns about China’s broader economy added to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.6%, the most in about two weeks, led lower by Tencent and Samsung. Equities went south across the region. Nikkei, Kospi and Hang Seng indexes are all down about 2%. Singapore’s Straits Times Index fell to its lowest since March, while the benchmark in South Korea lost more than 1.5% as the central bank held interest rates steady and flagged upside risks to inflation. All other benchmarks in Asia were lower with those in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia down more than 1%.
China’s onshore equity benchmark closed at the lowest level in nearly a year, amid weakness in Chinese tech stocks and the property industry with the latter not helped by ongoing debt woes and after Chinese property prices remained at a contraction. The country’s latest economic data showed the housing crisis remains a drag, despite growth surpassing expectations. Hong Kong’s heavyweight developers also dropped amid a report home purchase tax cuts could be smaller than expected.
Australia’s ASX 200 was pressured amid mixed jobs data and with underperformance in yield-sensitive sectors.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 suffered firm losses despite the mostly better-than-expected Japanese trade figures.
In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.2%. The pound fell as much as 0.4% against the dollar amid concern that the Bank of England may hold off from another rate hike due to concerns over weakness in the UK economy. Israel’s shekel declined for a ninth day, its worst streak since 2020. The Aussie underperforms after slower-than-expected job gains for September, falling 0.6% versus the greenback; the kiwi also lags.
In rates, treasuries were cheaper across the curve with losses led by long-end, extending disinversion of 2s10s beyond Wednesday’s high. Continued trend higher in Treasury yields sees 10-year approach 5%, peaking just below 4.98% in early London session. Many potential drivers for price action Thursday include weekly jobless claims data and a packed Fed speaker slate headed by Chair Powell at 12pm New York time. An auction 5-year TIPS closes an hour later. US yields cheaper by more than 6bp at long-end, widening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 3bp and 2bp; 10-year yields have eased from cheapest levels of the day to around 4.97% with bunds and gilts outperforming by 4.5bp and 1.5bp in the sector. Dollar IG issuance slate includes CAF 3Y; Goldman Sachs, MUFG, and Bank of New York raised almost $7b Wednesday, taking weekly total to $24b; this week’s seven offerings are all from the banking sector. $22b 5-year TIPS auction at 1pm is indicated around 2.53%, exceeding comparable results since 2008.
In commodities, oil prices slipped from a two-week high as the US eased crude sanctions against Venezuela, denting some of the price gains spurred by the conflict in the Middle East. Gold was steady after delivering gains of almost 7% on haven demand since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas on Israel.
To the day ahead, the main highlight will be remarks by Fed Chair Powell on the economic outlook. Other Fed speakers include Vice Chair Jefferson, Vice Chair for Supervision Barr, along with Goolsbee, Bostic, Harker and Logan. Data releases include the US weekly initial jobless claims, existing home sales for September, and the Conference Board’s leading index for September. Finally, earnings releases include Union Pacific, AT&T and Blackstone.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,329.75
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 440.93
MXAP down 1.5% to 153.69
MXAPJ down 1.5% to 481.59
Nikkei down 1.9% to 31,430.62
Topix down 1.4% to 2,264.16
Hang Seng Index down 2.5% to 17,295.89
Shanghai Composite down 1.7% to 3,005.39
Sensex little changed at 65,839.45
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.4% to 6,981.60
Kospi down 1.9% to 2,415.80
Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,949.82
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 106.61
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.95%
Euro little changed at $1.0537
Brent Futures down 1.3% to $90.34/bbl
Top Overnight News
The world’s second largest economy has a deflating property bubble, local governments struggling to pay their debts and a banking system heavily exposed to both. Anywhere else these factors would be seen as precursors of a financial crisis. But not in China, conventional wisdom goes, because its debts are owed to domestic rather than foreign investors, the government already stands behind much of the financial system and capable technocrats are on top of things. Conventional wisdom might be dangerously out of date. WSJ
China home prices fell at the fastest pace in almost a year in September, adding to doubts over whether Beijing’s steps to prop up the property market are enough to revive the sector. New-home prices in 70 cities, excluding state-subsidized housing, declined 0.3% last month from August, when they slipped 0.29%, National Bureau of Statistics figures showed Thursday. That was the steepest month-on-month decline since October 2022. BBG
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at the Economic Club of New York. Speech text and moderated Q&A are expected. On September 20, Chair Powell said “the fact that [the Committee] decided to maintain the policy rate at [the September FOMC] meeting doesn’t mean that we’ve decided that we have or have not at this time reached that stance of monetary policy that we’re seeking. GS GBM
The Biden administration on Wednesday broadly eased sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector in response to a deal reached between the government and opposition parties for the 2024 election – the most extensive rollback of Trump-era restrictions on Caracas. RTRS
The Gaza Strip was waiting for humanitarian aid on Thursday, a day after Israel and Egypt agreed to allow basic assistance into the south of the enclave. With US president Joe Biden warning that Israel risked “losing credibility worldwide” if it did not “relieve the suffering of people who have nowhere to go”, Israeli officials said a small convoy with food, water and medicine would soon be allowed to enter the enclave through Egypt. But they provided no clear timeline. FT
Donald Trump leads Joe Biden in key swing states, according to a poll by Bloomberg News and Morning Consult. Trump’s cumulative advantage is a significant 4-point lead. Voters in those states trust Trump more on the economy. BBG
UBS is doubling down on wealth management and expanding in the US following the return of CEO Sergio Ermotti and the Credit Suisse acquisition. Ermotti wants to bulletproof UBS as the undisputed global wealth champion, but he faces one of the most complicated fusions banking has ever seen. BBG
OpenAI is in talks to sell existing employees’ shares at an $86 billion valuation, people familiar said. BBG
Out-of-production Boeing 737NG and Airbus A320ceo single-aisle jets have become hot commodities, with values and monthly lease rates soaring. They’re now valued at about $20 million or more, according to pricing specialists at Ishka, thanks to an unexpected surge in popularity among airlines starved for planes. BBG
Chinese investors offloaded the most US bonds and stocks in four years in August, fueling speculation the authorities may have moved to beef up their war chest to defend a weakening yuan. The bulk of the $21.2 billion of sales were in Treasuries and US equities, with funds in the Asian nation also cutting holdings of agency debt, according to data from the US Department of the Treasury released on Wednesday. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were lower across the board amid spillover selling from global peers following the latest earnings releases and as geopolitical risks lingered, while further upside in yields also added to the headwinds. ASX 200 was pressured amid mixed jobs data and with underperformance in yield-sensitive sectors. Nikkei 225 suffered firm losses despite the mostly better-than-expected Japanese trade figures. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the downbeat mood with the Hong Kong benchmark being the worst hit amid weakness in Chinese tech stocks and the property industry with the latter not helped by ongoing debt woes and after Chinese property prices remained at a contraction.
Top Asian News
BoK kept its base rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected, with the decision unanimous although one of the six board members said the policy rate should remain flexible in both ways and the five other board members remained open for a future rate hike. BoK said it will maintain a restrictive policy stance for a considerable time and will monitor inflation slowdown, financial stability risks, economic downside risks, household debt growth monetary policy changes in major countries and developments in geopolitical risks, as well as noted that the Middle East crisis adds to uncertainties for South Korea. BoK also stated that South Korea’s economy is to grow as projected earlier but uncertainties to the growth path are high, while it sees upside risks to inflation and said it might take longer to reach the inflation target.
Country Garden (2007 HK) bondholders are reportedly forming groups and seeking urgent talks after Co. missed a USD 15mln coupon payment, raising risks of default, according to Reuters sources; subsequently,
Moody’s says it could downgrade Country Garden’s (2007 HK) corporate family rating in the scenario that recovery prospects weaken further.
Indonesian 7-Day Reverse Repo* (Oct 2023) 6.0% vs. Exp. 5.75% (Prev. 5.75%).
Japanese Bankers Association Chair says if long-term rates rise significantly from their current figures, could result in downward pressure on economic activities.
European bourses are softer, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, with broader macro driver somewhat light as earnings take centre stage. Sectors are largely dictated by earnings with Healthcare pressured post-Roche (-3.7%) with Nestle (-2.1%) also lower and impacting the SMI (-1.2%) while Autos stall after Renault (-6.3%). On the flip side, Tech is the standout outperformer given well received SAP (+4.8%) results. Stateside, futures are similarly in the red, ES -0.1%, ahead of highly anticipated commentary from Chair Powell and after mixed earnings from Netflix (+13.5%) and Tesla (-4.8%) Beijing weighs delaying approval of USD 69bln Broadcom (AVGO)-VMware (VMW) deal, FT reports.
Top European News
Sanctions Fail to Stop Kim Jong Un Snapping Up Luxury Imports
UK Pushes to Label AI as Capable of ‘Catastrophic Harm’
Technogym Rises as Berenberg Rates New Buy on Valuation
UK’s OnTheMarket Surges by Record on Takeover Deal by CoStar
I Squared to Acquire Deutsche Bahn’s Arriva Transport Unit
Tusk Confronts Poland’s Hostile Media Machine After Election Win
Sunak Lands in Israel as UK Joins Effort to Contain Conflict
Deutsche Bahn Agrees to Sell Arriva to I Squared
FX
Greenback continues to grind higher in tandem with Treasury yields, DXY extends to 106.670 from higher 106.490 low and eyes last Friday high at 106.790.
Euro and Yen buck broadly weak trend vs Dollar as EUR/USD holds above trendline support at 1.0521 and USD/JPY remains capped ahead of 150.00.
Aussie undermined by payrolls miss with AUD/USD probing 0.6300 to the downside and prone towards 2023/double bottom not far below.
Pound flounders amidst UK economic concerns as Cable loses 1.2100+ status and EUR/GBP breaches 0.8700 on way to scaling 200 DMA.
Loonie undermined by downturn in WTI pre-Canadian PPI data with USD/CAD elevated above 1.3700.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1795 vs exp. 7.3226 (prev. 7.1795)
Brazilian Finance Minister Haddad says preparing currency hedging tools this year to attract long-term foreign investments; Congressional resistance to executive orders has created “impasse” for new revenue measures. Brazils Q3 economic performance was very poor.
Fixed Income
Bonds bounce after hitting new lows as round number levels in futures and cash offer some support ahead of IJC, Philly Fed and a raft of Fed speakers including Chair Powell.
Bunds eke marginal new peak at 127.68 vs 127.28 at worst, Gilts nearer 91.47 than 91.19 and T-note hovering within 105-12+/27 range.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks are in the red after Wednesday’s session of gains and with newsflow since somewhat lighter than has been the case recently; as it stands, WTI resides towards the bottom of a USD 86.21-87.36/bbl intraday range thus far, with its Brent counterpart similarly heavy within USD 90.25-91.35/bbl confines.
Qatar set December-loading Al-Shaheen crude term price at about USD 3.25/bbl above Dubai quotes.
US relaxed some sanctions on Venezuela’s oil, gas and gold sectors. US Treasury said it is issuing a 6-month licence authorising transactions in Venezuela’s oil and gas sectors and also issued a general licence authorising dealings with Venezuela’s mining Co. Minerven. Furthermore, the general licence will only be renewed if Venezuela meets election commitments and other commitments related to those wrongfully detained, while there were later comments from Venezuelan President Maduro that all sanctions must be lifted.
Spot gold is flat and trades on either side of USD 1,950/oz and holding onto the bulk of its recent geopolitically driven gains, with the yellow metal still well within yesterday’s USD 1,923.23-62.67/oz parameter.
Spot silver is holing into modest gains on either side of the USD 23/oz mark but well within yesterday’s 22.68-23.32/oz range
Base metals are mixed with 3M LME copper trading on either side of the USD 8,000/t and within tight USD 7,958-8,024/t parameters following modest APAC weakness as the region conformed to risk aversion.
Geopolitics
Four French airports reportedly evacuated after the threat of bombs, according to Al-Arabiya correspondent; Figaro reports airports in Bordeaux, Nantes, Lille, and Montpellier airport have been evacuated after threats.
Israel conducted an air strike on Kafr Shuba in southern Lebanon, according to Al Mayadeen TV.
Israeli PM Netanyahu won private backing from US President Biden to push ahead with a ground invasion of Gaza, according to accounts of a closed-door meeting between the leaders cited by The Times.
US President Biden discussed with Egypt’s Sisi ongoing coordination to deliver humanitarian assistance to Gaza and agreed to work together on encouraging an urgent and robust international response to the UN’s humanitarian appeal, while they agreed on the need to preserve stability in the Middle East and prevent escalation of the conflict.
US President Biden is expected to seek USD 60bln for Ukraine and aid for Israel in an upcoming USD 100bln funding request, according to NBC News.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says there is a serious risk that the Gaza conflict will become regional, while he added that attempts to blame Iran for the Gaza crisis are provocations, according to IFAX.
North Korea said Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s visit will mark a significant occasion in bilateral relations, while Lavrov said his visit will be a chance to reach a practical outcome in implementing the agreement reached at the recent Russia-North Korea summit. Furthermore, Lavrov said Russia totally supports North Korea’s push to implement its sovereignty and their ties have a special meaning under the complex global political situation due to US hegemony that seeks world domination, according to KCNA.
Lebanese Iran-aligned Al Mayadeen reports a drone attack on the Al-Tanf base on the Syrian, Iraqi and Jordanian border. Attack on Conoco site which hosts US troops in Syria; no official confirmation.
Reports of renewed heavy shelling by Israel on different areas of the Gaza strip, via Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Oct. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210,000, prior 209,000
Continuing Claims, est. 1.71m, prior 1.7m
08:30: Oct. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. -7.0, prior -13.5
10:00: Sept. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -3.7%, prior -0.7%
10:00: Sept. Leading Index, est. -0.4%, prior -0.4%
Fed speakers
09:00: Fed’s Jefferson Delivers Welcoming Remarks
12:00: Fed’s Powell Speaks at the Economic Club of New York
13:20: Fed’s Goolsbee Participates in Moderated Q&A
13:30: Fed’s Barr Speaks About Stress Testing
16:00: Fed’s Bostic Speaks at the New School
17:30: Fed’s Harker Speaks on Economic Outlook
18:40: Fed’s Logan Speaks in New York
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The market selloff gathered pace over the last 24 hours, as rising geopolitical risks and a fresh surge in long-term borrowing costs added to the downbeat mood. The main driver were investor fears about an escalation in the Middle East, which drove gold prices (+1.34%) to their highest since the end of July and meant the rebound in oil prices continued, with Brent Crude up a further +1.78% to $91.50/bbl. But the negative sentiment was clear throughout global markets, and the 10yr Treasury yield (+8.1bps) closed at a new post-GFC high of 4.91%, and this morning is up a further +4.7bps to 4.96%, which leaves it within touching distance of 5% for the first time since July 2007. Equities also struggled as well after defying geopolitical gravity in recent days, with the S&P 500 (-1.34%) losing sizeable ground, whilst futures are pointing to a further -0.18% decline for the index this morning following contrasting results for Netflix and Tesla after the bell yesterday. Later today, Fed Chair Powell’s remarks at the Economic Club of NY will be very interesting given the recent run up in yields, the stronger data of late and the geopolitical events since we last heard from him.
In terms of the latest developments, yesterday continued to see both sides accuse the other of being behind the explosion at a Gaza hospital, which had already led to a significant risk-off move as the initial reports came through late Tuesday night European time. Oil prices took a further leg higher after Iran’s foreign minister called for an oil embargo against Israel, which saw Brent Crude hit its highs of the day at $93.00/bbl, before falling back in the European afternoon to close at $91.50 (+1.78%). For reference, Israel only plays a small role in the global oil market, but the comments added to fears of a broader escalation, and served as a reminder of the 1973 oil embargo (50 years ago this week) that sent several Western countries into recession and led to a sharp rise in inflation.
Whilst some haven assets benefited from the geopolitical risk premium, sovereign bonds continued to sell off sharply across the world. US Treasuries were at the forefront of that, with yields rising to new cycle highs across the curve. For instance, the 2yr yield was up +1.3bps to 5.22%, the highest since 2006, and the 30yr yield (+7.0bps) closed at 4.995%, the highest since 2007. Interestingly, we also saw inflation expectations reach their highest in months, with the 30yr breakeven (+2.3bps) closing at 2.50%, which is its highest level of 2023 so far. Longer-term yields did fall by nearly 5bps early in the US afternoon following a relatively successful 20yr Treasury auction, but inched higher again later in the session. This morning we’ve seen another rise in yields across the curve, with the 2yr up +2.0bps to 5.24%, and the 30yr up +4.0bps to 5.03% .
Over in Europe there was a very similar pattern, with yields on 10yr bunds (+4.3bps), OATs (+5.2bps) and BTPs (+9.5bps) all moving higher. That move meant that yields on I talian BTPs closed at 4.98%, their highest level since 2012, and those on French OATs were at 3.55%, their highest since 2011. Nevertheless, it was UK gilts (+14.6bps) which saw the biggest underperformance, as the latest UK CPI release surprised on the upside at +6.7% in September (vs. +6.6% expected). In turn, that led investors to ramp up their expectations of another hike from the Bank of England, with market pricing for another hike up from 55% the previous day to 75% by the close .
Amidst the rise in long-term borrowing costs, we also got fresh evidence that this increase has been filtering through to the real economy. That came from the Mortgage Bankers Association, with their weekly data showing that the rate on a 30yr fixed mortgage was now at 7.7% in the week ending October 13, the highest it’s been since 2000. In turn, that helped push the overall index of mortgage applications to its lowest level since 1995. In the meantime, investors have continued to price out the chance of rate cuts from the Fed any time soon, with futures for the December 2024 meeting putting the implied rate at a new cycle high this morning of 4.83% .
In part, that followed comments from Fed Governor Waller, who said that he believed “we can wait, watch and see how the economy evolves before making definitive moves” on rates. However, he also pointed out that “if the real economy continues showing underlying strength and inflation appears to stabilize or reaccelerate, more policy tightening is likely needed despite the recent run up in longer term rates”. So little urgency but a clear hawkish bias. Meanwhile, New York Fed President Williams said that “we need to keep this restrictive stance of policy in place for some time” but that he was “not yet convinced” that the neutral rate is higher.
All this proved a tough backdrop for equities, and the S&P 500 (-1.34%) posted a pronounced decline. After the close, we received contrasting Q3 results from Netflix and Tesla. Netflix shares gained as much as 13% in after-hours trading after delivering the strongest quarterly subscriber growth since 2020 and raising prices in some key markets. By contrast, Tesla fell in after-hours trading after missing both sales and earnings estimates. Beforehand, the FANG+ index of megacap tech stocks had underperformed (-2.32%), led by a -4.78% decline for Tesla. Another major underperformer within the S&P were airlines (-5.58%) after United Airlines (-9.67%) lowered its profit guidance due to the suspension of flights to Israel and higher fuel costs. Over in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-1.05%) and other major indices lost ground. However, one exception on both sides of the Atlantic were energy stocks (+0.25% in the STOXX 600 and +0.93% for the S&P 500), which were the biggest outperformers amidst the runup in oil prices.
Overnight in Asia, that risk-off tone has continued and all the major equity indices have seen strong losses. That includes the Hang Seng (-1.95%), the KOSPI (-1.84%), the Nikkei (-1.75%), the CSI 300 (-1.62%) and the Shanghai Comp (-1.21%). Separately, the Australian Dollar has weakened by -0.54% against the US Dollar overnight, following weaker-than-expected employment data, which showed employment up by +6.7k in September (vs. +20k expected).
In US politics, Republican Jim Jordan lost a second vote in his bid to become House Speaker, with the number of Republican representatives opposing his nomination rising from 20 in the first vote to 22. It isn’t clear what will happen from here, but the House is unable to pass any bills without a speaker, and it’s now less than a month until the next government shutdown deadline on 17 November, whilst President Biden said yesterday that he would be asking Congress for an “unprecedented support package for Israel’s defense .” Biden is due to give an Oval Office address tonight at 8pm ET.
Looking at yesterday’s other data, US housing starts recovered to an annualised rate of 1.358m in September (vs. 1.383m expected), moving up from their 3-year low in August. However, building permits fell back to an annualised rate of 1.473m (vs. 1.453m expected).
To the day ahead, and one of the main highlights will be remarks by Fed Chair Powell on the economic outlook. Other Fed speakers include Vice Chair Jefferson, Vice Chair for Supervision Barr, along with Goolsbee, Bostic, Harker and Logan. Data releases include the US weekly initial jobless claims, existing home sales for September, and the Conference Board’s leading index for September. Finally, earnings releases include Union Pacific, AT&T and Blackstone.
END
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities in the red with earnings dominating newsflow ahead of Chair Powell – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, OCT 19, 2023 – 06:32 AM
European bourses and US futures reside in the red with earnings dominating newsflow; NFLX +13.5%, TSLA -4.8%, SAP +4.8%.
USD has been grinding higher alongside yields to the detriment of peers with the slim exception of EUR & JPY
Crude benchmarks reside in the red after Wednesday’s gains with metals mixed and spot gold near unchanged
Reports of renewed heavy shelling by Israel in Gaza while reports indicate Israel won backing from Biden to push ahead with a ground invasion
Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Philadelphia Fed, Existing Home Sales & Leading Index, Fed’s Powell, Jefferson, Goolsbee, Barr, Bostic, Harker & Logan. Earnings from Philip Morris, AT&T.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are softer, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%, with broader macro driver somewhat light as earnings take centre stage.
Sectors are largely dictated by earnings with Healthcare pressured post-Roche (-3.7%) with Nestle (-2.1%) also lower and impacting the SMI (-1.2%) while Autos stall after Renault (-6.3%). On the flip side, Tech is the standout outperformer given well received SAP (+4.8%) results.
Stateside, futures are similarly in the red, ES -0.1%, ahead of highly anticipated commentary from Chair Powell and after mixed earnings from Netflix (+13.5%) and Tesla (-4.8%)
Beijing weighs delaying approval of USD 69bln Broadcom (AVGO)-VMware (VMW) deal, FT reports.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
Greenback continues to grind higher in tandem with Treasury yields, DXY extends to 106.670 from higher 106.490 low and eyes last Friday high at 106.790.
Euro and Yen buck broadly weak trend vs Dollar as EUR/USD holds above trendline support at 1.0521 and USD/JPY remains capped ahead of 150.00.
Aussie undermined by payrolls miss with AUD/USD probing 0.6300 to the downside and prone towards 2023/double bottom not far below.
Pound flounders amidst UK economic concerns as Cable loses 1.2100+ status and EUR/GBP breaches 0.8700 on way to scaling 200 DMA.
Loonie undermined by downturn in WTI pre-Canadian PPI data with USD/CAD elevated above 1.3700.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1795 vs exp. 7.3226 (prev. 7.1795)
Brazilian Finance Minister Haddad says preparing currency hedging tools this year to attract long-term foreign investments; Congressional resistance to executive orders has created “impasse” for new revenue measures. Brazils Q3 economic performance was very poor.
Bonds bounce after hitting new lows as round number levels in futures and cash offer some support ahead of IJC, Philly Fed and a raft of Fed speakers including Chair Powell.
Bunds eke marginal new peak at 127.68 vs 127.28 at worst, Gilts nearer 91.47 than 91.19 and T-note hovering within 105-12+/27 range.
Crude benchmarks are in the red after Wednesday’s session of gains and with newsflow since somewhat lighter than has been the case recently; as it stands, WTI resides towards the bottom of a USD 86.21-87.36/bbl intraday range thus far, with its Brent counterpart similarly heavy within USD 90.25-91.35/bbl confines.
Qatar set December-loading Al-Shaheen crude term price at about USD 3.25/bbl above Dubai quotes.
US relaxed some sanctions on Venezuela’s oil, gas and gold sectors. US Treasury said it is issuing a 6-month licence authorising transactions in Venezuela’s oil and gas sectors and also issued a general licence authorising dealings with Venezuela’s mining Co. Minerven. Furthermore, the general licence will only be renewed if Venezuela meets election commitments and other commitments related to those wrongfully detained, while there were later comments from Venezuelan President Maduro that all sanctions must be lifted.
Spot gold is flat and trades on either side of USD 1,950/oz and holding onto the bulk of its recent geopolitically driven gains, with the yellow metal still well within yesterday’s USD 1,923.23-62.67/oz parameter.
Spot silver is holing into modest gains on either side of the USD 23/oz mark but well within yesterday’s 22.68-23.32/oz range
Base metals are mixed with 3M LME copper trading on either side of the USD 8,000/t and within tight USD 7,958-8,024/t parameters following modest APAC weakness as the region conformed to risk aversion.
EU Current Account SA, EUR (Aug 2023) 27.7B (Prev. 20.9B)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Netflix Inc (NFLX) – Q3 2023 (USD): EPS 3.73 (exp. 3.49), Revenue 8.54bln (exp. 8.54bln), Streaming paid net additions 8.76mln (exp. +6.20mln). Sees Q4 EPS USD 2.15 (exp. 2.17). Sees Q4 revenue USD 8.69bln (exp. 8.76bln). Sees Q4 net paid additions similar to Q3 (exp. 7.85mln). Boosting some prices in the US, UK and France. COMMENTARY: Says “very optimistic” about long run ads opportunity, laying the foundation for what it believes should be a multi-billion dollar revenue stream over time. Now expect FY23 FCF of ~6.5bln, up from our prior forecast of at least 5bln. Repurchased 2.5bln of shares in Q3 and increased our buyback authorization by 10bln. (Netflix)
Tesla Inc (TSLA) – Q3 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.66 (exp. 0.73), Revenue 23.35bln (exp. 24.1bln); Cybertruck deliveries scheduled to begin on November 30th. Gross margin 17.9% (exp. 18%). FCF 848mln (exp. 2.59bln). Still sees FY production 1.8mln vehicles (exp. 1.82mln). Implemented upgrades in Q3 to enable unit cost reduction. Continue to make progress on next generation platform. CEO Musk said in post-earnings conference call that energy is becoming the highest margin business.
Elon Musk says reports on him considering removing X from Europe is “false”.
Four French airports reportedly evacuated after the threat of bombs, according to Al-Arabiya correspondent; Figaro reports airports in Bordeaux, Nantes, Lille, and Montpellier airport have been evacuated after threats.
Israel conducted an air strike on Kafr Shuba in southern Lebanon, according to Al Mayadeen TV.
Israeli PM Netanyahu won private backing from US President Biden to push ahead with a ground invasion of Gaza, according to accounts of a closed-door meeting between the leaders cited by The Times.
US President Biden discussed with Egypt’s Sisi ongoing coordination to deliver humanitarian assistance to Gaza and agreed to work together on encouraging an urgent and robust international response to the UN’s humanitarian appeal, while they agreed on the need to preserve stability in the Middle East and prevent escalation of the conflict.
US President Biden is expected to seek USD 60bln for Ukraine and aid for Israel in an upcoming USD 100bln funding request, according to NBC News.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says there is a serious risk that the Gaza conflict will become regional, while he added that attempts to blame Iran for the Gaza crisis are provocations, according to IFAX.
North Korea said Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s visit will mark a significant occasion in bilateral relations, while Lavrov said his visit will be a chance to reach a practical outcome in implementing the agreement reached at the recent Russia-North Korea summit. Furthermore, Lavrov said Russia totally supports North Korea’s push to implement its sovereignty and their ties have a special meaning under the complex global political situation due to US hegemony that seeks world domination, according to KCNA.
Lebanese Iran-aligned Al Mayadeen reports a drone attack on the Al-Tanf base on the Syrian, Iraqi and Jordanian border. Attack on Conoco site which hosts US troops in Syria; no official confirmation.
Reports of renewed heavy shelling by Israel on different areas of the Gaza strip, via Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya.
CRYPTO
US SEC Chair Gensler said the SEC is still weighing Bitcoin ETF proposals.
Bitcoin is firmer on the session to the tune of 0.5% and holding just shy of the USD 28.5k mark. As such, BTC remains someway shy of Wednesday’s USD 29k peak but just above that sessions USD 28.15k trough.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were lower across the board amid spillover selling from global peers following the latest earnings releases and as geopolitical risks lingered, while further upside in yields also added to the headwinds.
ASX 200 was pressured amid mixed jobs data and with underperformance in yield-sensitive sectors.
Nikkei 225 suffered firm losses despite the mostly better-than-expected Japanese trade figures.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the downbeat mood with the Hong Kong benchmark being the worst hit amid weakness in Chinese tech stocks and the property industry with the latter not helped by ongoing debt woes and after Chinese property prices remained at a contraction.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
BoK kept its base rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected, with the decision unanimous although one of the six board members said the policy rate should remain flexible in both ways and the five other board members remained open for a future rate hike. BoK said it will maintain a restrictive policy stance for a considerable time and will monitor inflation slowdown, financial stability risks, economic downside risks, household debt growth monetary policy changes in major countries and developments in geopolitical risks, as well as noted that the Middle East crisis adds to uncertainties for South Korea. BoK also stated that South Korea’s economy is to grow as projected earlier but uncertainties to the growth path are high, while it sees upside risks to inflation and said it might take longer to reach the inflation target.
Country Garden (2007 HK) bondholders are reportedly forming groups and seeking urgent talks after Co. missed a USD 15mln coupon payment, raising risks of default, according to Reuters sources; subsequently,
Moody’s says it could downgrade Country Garden’s (2007 HK) corporate family rating in the scenario that recovery prospects weaken further.
Indonesian 7-Day Reverse Repo* (Oct 2023) 6.0% vs. Exp. 5.75% (Prev. 5.75%).
Japanese Bankers Association Chair says if long-term rates rise significantly from their current figures, could result in downward pressure on economic activities.
DATA RECAP
Chinese House Prices YY (Sep) -0.1% (Prev. -0.1%)
Japanese Trade Balance (JPY) (Sep) 62.4B vs. Exp. -425.0B (Prev. -930.5B, Rev. -937.8B)
Japanese Exports YY (Sep) 4.3% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. -0.8%); Imports YY (Sep) -16.3% vs. Exp. -12.9% (Prev. -17.8%, Rev. -17.7%)
Australian Employment (Sep) 6.7k vs. Exp. 20.0k (Prev. 64.9k); Participation Rate (Sep) 66.7% vs. Exp. 67.0% (Prev. 67.0%)
Australian Unemployment Rate (Sep) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.7%)
Australian NAB Business Confidence (Q3) -1 (Prev. -3)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 53.32 PTS OR 1.74% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 436.63 PTS OR 2.46% /The Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 611.63 PTS OR 1.91% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.28 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.3155 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3409 /Oil DOWN TO 87.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 90.42/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
//NORTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
end
JAPAN
end
3 CHINA
CHINA/RUSSIA
Putin and Xi in Beijing pitch for an alternative world order.
(zerohedge)
Putin, Xi In Beijing Pitch For ‘Alternative World Order’ As Biden Departs A Burning Middle East
WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 07:40 PM
As a Rabobank note has highlighted, the main theme on display during Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin’s Wednesday talks in Beijing was one of “common threats” bringing the two “dear friends” closer, according to a press readout. Observed Rabobank earlier in the day, “Meanwhile, as the Middle East rages and the West recoils, Xi Jinping welcomes Russia’s Putin and a host of Global South leaders, ex-India, to his Beijing Belt and Road Forum to talk about what an alternative world order might look like. The ‘global’ Western press mostly failed to even cover it.”
Putin said at a media briefing following the meeting with his Chinese counterpart, “We discussed in detail the situation in the Middle East.” He added: “I informed Chairman (Xi) about the situation that is developing on the Ukrainian track, also quite in detail.” The Russian leader then emphasized:
“All these external factors are common threats, and they strengthen Russian-Chinese interaction.”
CNN subsequently called it a “pitch for a new world order” at a moment crisis has gripped the Middle East.
Yet, almost simultaneously, Bloomberg reported that Biden is overseeing a fast unfolding disaster in the Middle East:
President Joe Biden’s 7.5-hour trip to Tel Aviv signaled full US backing for Israel but fell short on another key goal: winning over Arab leaders.
Amid growing signs the conflict may be spinning out of control, Biden made plain that the US will protect its ally, sending a clear message to rivals in the region like Iran to stay out of the fight. With one US aircraft carrier in the area and another on the way, Biden promised a new package of “unprecedented support.”
The Bloomberg headline aptly reads, “Biden’s Whirlwind Israel Trip Fails to Calm Fears of Wider Middle East Conflict.” At this time, Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt are on edge – with Western and Saudi embassies reducing staff and issuing travel advisories.
Meanwhile, related to Xi’s Belt and Road (the purpose of the gathering in Beijing), Putin praised the potential for it to usher in a “fairer, multi-polar world” as Moscow and Beijing grow closer based on “deep friendship”:
In his speech at the opening ceremony, Putin hailed Xi’s flagship foreign policy Belt and Road Initiative as “aiming to form a fairer, multi-polar world,” while touting his country’s deep alignment with China.
Russia and China share an “aspiration for equal and mutually beneficial cooperation,” which includes “respecting civilization diversity and the right of every state for their own development model” – he added, in an apparent push back against calls for authoritarian leaders to promote human rights and political freedoms at home.
This is at a moment Putin is “wanted” by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and shunned and sanctioned by the West, while at the same time Global South countries are expressing growing anger at Israel’s unrelenting bombing of the Gaza Strip, as the Palestinian death toll soars into the thousands.
Directly related to this, a Thursday UN Security Council resolution brought by Brazil and seeking a ceasefire in Gaza was shot down, given the US was the only “no” vote.
Also missed by the mainstream media was the following pro-China sentiment expressed by a top Palestinian official over a week ago:
China will soon lead the world, and it supports the “Palestinian position, whatever it may be,” according to Fatah’s Central Committee member Abbas Zaki.
In a public address that aired on Palestine TV on Sept. 29, Abbas Zaki called on the United States to “reconsider its stance” with regard to Israel or risk becoming irrelevant. The Israelis, he said, were “sons of bitches,” “murderers” and agents of instability, while the Palestinians are “messengers of peace.”
“I know that there is serious change in Europe and even in the United States,” said Zaki.
But, he added, “do not forget the emerging camp, which is on your side—the Chinese camp. China is going to lead the world, and it proclaims: ‘There can be no stability and progress without the liberation of Palestine, with East Jerusalem as its capital.’”
Putin too, has expressed more sympathies with the Palestinian side, days ago warning Israel of the “catastrophic” death toll its attacks on Gaza will result in. He has also held calls with Arab leaders, seeking to mediate peace and a possible two-state solution.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
end
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS/GAZA/USA
IRAQ/USA
uSA troops in Iraq under fresh drone attacks
(zerohedge)
US Troops In Iraq Under Fresh Drone Attacks After Iran Said “Time Is Up”
WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 05:40 PM
The US military thwarted a drone attack on its troops stationed at Iraq’s Ain Al-Asad base on Wednesday, according to two officials who spoke to Reuters.
No group claimed responsibility for the attack in the immediate aftermath, however, Iran-aligned Shia paramilitary factions are widely suspected. They have warned that the spiraling war in Gaza could make US troops “legitimate military targets.”
The attack came hours after the bombing of al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza, which reportedly killed between 200 and 300 people, widely blamed on Israel amid its ongoing air campaign. But President Biden on Wednesday in Tel Aviv said the US agrees with Israel’s assessment that it was an errant rocket fired by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).
One Iraqi faction did appear to indirectly own up the drone attack in the following:
“Our missiles, drones, and special forces are ready to direct qualitative strikes at the American enemy in its bases and disrupt its interests if it intervenes in this battle,” Ahmad “Abu Hussein” al-Hamidawi, head of the Kataib Hezbollah militia, said in a statement last Wednesday. He also threatened to launch missiles at Israeli targets.
This has put the whole region on edge, and with hundreds of US troops still in Iraq but also occupying northeast Syria, fresh attacks on their positions by Iranian-linked factions could be unleashed.
There was a follow-up drone attack, Reuters reports:
Later on Wednesday another drone attack targeting the al-Harir air base, which houses U.S. forces in the northern Iraqi city of Erbil, was also foiled, an Iraqi security official and a Western diplomat said.
A little known group called Tashkil al-Waritheen, or the Inheritor, claimed responsibility for the attack on al-Harir.
On Tuesday, Iran’s embassy in Damascus cryptically tweeted out the message “Time is up” – in a statement which portends a greater regional uprising aimed at the US and Israel. Indeed this is already happening to some degree especially inside Jordan and Lebanon.
But the potential for significant battles could be brewing in Syria and Iraq. Likely the Pentagon has these bases on high alert. In Syria, the Assad government has long sought ways to force the US occupation’s exit. Turkey too wants to see the US bases gone especially due to Washington’s backing of the Syrian Kurds.
END
US Embassy Tells Americans In Lebanon ‘Get Out While You Still Can’ As 20 Hezbollah Rockets Land On Israel
THURSDAY, OCT 19, 2023 – 12:35 PM
Regional media is reporting that since midnight, and after President Biden departed Israel yesterday, Israeli forces have intensified their strikes across the Gaza strip, starting with Rafah, which according to Al Jazeera killed 33 people.
There are reports that Biden in private comments told Netanyahu he has a “green light” from Washington to launch a fuller offensive, at a moment Israeli media continues to report a ground incursion is “imminent”.
At this point the greater danger, from Tel Aviv’s perspective, is the growing strikes from across the northern border from Lebanon. Border skirmishes with Hezbollah have grown, as the group has in the last 24 hours launched at least nine rockets, triggering sirens across Israeli towns and settlements.
Already, an evacuation order is in place for dozens of the communities closest to the border. The IDF has responded with artillery targeting Hezbollah units at presumed launch sites.
Shortly before the rocket sirens, the IDF said one of its tanks shelled two anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) launch positions in southern Lebanon, where the military identified an attempt to carry out an attack.
A third ATGM launch site was struck following a missile attack on the northern town of Metula.
And in a Thursday update, the IDF said that some 20 rockets have been fired from Lebanon at northern Israel. The statement said that at least one was intercepted while many more fell in open fields.
Given Hezbollah’s capabilities, which includes tens of thousands of rockets as well as manpower and technology which far surpasses Hamas’, the conflict is still very ‘limited’. The US, UK, and Israel has been issuing stern warnings and threats against Hezbollah joining the fight.
The US embassy and other foreign embassies in Beirut are keeping a close eye on the situation. Already, the US is reducing its non-emergency personnel.
The US State Department is now telling Americans to leave now, while there’s still a chance ahead of potential escalation in Lebanon:
The US and British embassies in Beirut advise their citizens to leave Lebanon while flights “remain available” as border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah intensify.
Both countries had already warned citizens against travel to Lebanon.
“We recommend that US citizens in Lebanon make appropriate arrangements to leave the country; commercial options currently remain available,” a US embassy statement says.
The British Embassy too has told its citizens: “If you are currently in Lebanon, we encourage you to leave now while commercial options remain available.” The new advisory added, “British nationals should exercise caution and avoid areas where demonstrations may be held.”
If a major Israel-Hezbollah conflict does open up, it’s likely that Beirut’s international airport could be the first to be bombed by Israeli strikes, as happened in 2006. This is the main way out of Lebanon, the other more difficult path being boats or ferries to nearby Cyprus.
An Israel-Hezbollah war could also likely spread to more Israeli attacks on Syria, given also the Syrian Army has already bombed the Israeli occupied Golan Heights in “solidarity” with Gaza.
END
Qatar regime are crooks and shielding HAMAS terrorists
(Thornebrooke/EpochTimes)
US Ally Qatar Shielding Hamas Terrorists After Israel Attack: Expert
A key U.S. ally in the Middle East is also one of the top financial and political backers of the Hamas terrorist organization. That relationship could now undermine the U.S.-Israel alliance and peace in the Middle East more broadly, according to one expert.
Qatar provides financial and diplomatic support to numerous terrorist groups and state sponsors of terror, including Hamas and Iran.
Now, the authoritarian nation is assisting the Hamas terrorist organization to maintain its control over the Gaza Strip, according to Asher Fredman, director for Israel at the Abraham Accords Peace Institute think tank.
“Qatar is a key supporter of Hamas, housing Hamas offices and senior leaders in Doha, and providing Hamas with funds that enable it to maintain its control over Gaza,” Mr. Asher told The Epoch Times.
Mr. Asher added that while Iran is Hamas’s primary patron for military support and training, Qatar is its go-to for spreading anti-Israel propaganda. This work, he said, is primarily done through Al Jazeera, a media network funded by the Qatari government.
“Through the Al Jazeera network, Qatar spreads narratives that demonize and delegitimize Israel, and justify terrorism, thereby supporting Hamas in its efforts,” Mr. Asher said.
Qatar Shielding Terrorists
Qatar has shielded numerous key leaders of the Hamas over the decades.
Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s top political leader, currently lives a life of relative luxury in the Qatari capital of Doha. From there, he and several other members of Hamas reportedly publicly celebrated the mass murder, torture, and rape of Israeli civilians on Oct. 7.
Qatar’s authoritarian government has consistently refused to arrest or hold Hamas leadership accountable for its crimes.
Instead, in the aftermath of Hamas’s assault on Israel this month, Qatar offered to mediate between Israel and the terrorist organization.
Mr. Asher said the United States should, therefore, use its clout with Qatar to bring about the unconditional release of hostages taken by Hamas and bring the organization’s leadership to justice.
“No Hamas leader anywhere should be immune from Israel’s response,” Mr. Asher said.
“The U.S. should demand that Qatar use this leverage to bring about the unconditional release of the hostages, in line with international law. If Qatar refuses, the U.S. should absolutely reevaluate its alliance and the preferred status it gives to Qatar.”
Pulling Back From Qatar No Easy Task
Reevaluating its relationship with Qatar is no easy task for the United States.
The country is home to the United States’ largest military base in the Middle East and has long been a centerpiece in the nation’s regional strategy.
Moreover, the Biden administration has done more than previous governments to foster that relationship.
The Biden administration formally designated Qatar as a major non-NATO ally last year, for what President Joe Biden described as Qatari assistance during the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and “maintaining stability in Gaza.”
“Qatar is a good friend and reliable and capable partner,” President Joe Biden said at the time.
Despite its efforts to prop up terrorist groups throughout the region, Mr. Asher said, Qatar’s influence is broadly understood for what it is throughout the Middle East.
As such, other regional powers were unlikely to grow warmer with either Qatar or the terrorist organizations it shelters.
“Arab leaders understand that Hamas, a radical ISIS-like terror group sponsored by Iran, is a threat to their vision of a peaceful and prosperous Middle East and an obstacle to Israel-Palestinian peace. Eliminating Hamas, therefore, is ultimately in their interest,” Mr. Asher said.
“The U.S. and all enlightened countries must put massive pressure on countries with leverage over Hamas—such as Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt—to demand that Hamas release its hostages immediately.”
The State Department declined to clarify the scope of the United States’ cooperation with Qatar during the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.
A State Department official instead referred The Epoch Times to a readout of the Oct. 7 meeting between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister. That readout said, “The two agreed to remain closely coordinated.”
END
As Biden turns against Israel, Netanyahu must stand strong or else
(zerohedge)
Fwd: As Biden Turns against Israel, Netanyahu Must Stand Strong :: Gatestone Institute
Pictured: US President Joe Biden shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as they meet on the sidelines of the 78th UN General Assembly in New York City, on September 20, 2023. (Photo by Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images)
On Sunday, U.S. President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan all announced that the United States expects Israel to permit “humanitarian aid” into Gaza.
The implications of this position are devastating for Israel. According to reports, there are “hundreds of trucks” lined up on the border in Egypt, poised to enter the Gaza Strip carrying so-called “humanitarian aid.” These trucks, if permitted to enter, will not be inspected in any significant way. There is no reason to believe they are carrying baby formula and foodstuffs that will be delivered to the needy. There is every reason to believe they are carrying war materiel and jihadist fighters who have arrived to augment Hamas.
To the extent that there is food in the trucks, who will it feed? The hostages? The infirm? Who will the medicine be delivered to? The hostages? Will the fuel in the trucks be used in refrigerators to feed the captive Israelis?
Of course not.
Hamas is Gaza. All the “ministries” in Gaza are Hamas. All hospitals are Hamas. Hamas’s military headquarters is located under Shifa Hospital.
So whatever and whoever is in the trucks carrying “humanitarian aid,” all of it will be delivered to Hamas and will be distributed to benefit Hamas.
The idea that it could be otherwise is absurd. And the fact that the Biden administration is arguing this absurdity is an outrage.
Even if the “hundreds of trucks” are completely empty — and they manifestly are not — the trucks themselves are instruments of war. Their presence in Gaza will also advance Hamas’s military effort against Israel. They will augment Hamas’s capacity to kill and wound untold numbers of IDF soldiers now poised at the border waiting for the Netanyahu government to finally order them to enter Gaza.
Biden, Blinken and Sullivan — like their counterparts in Europe and the United Nations — insist that they want to give Hamas the trucks to avert a humanitarian disaster in Gaza. But their position is actually devastating for Gaza’s civilians.
By barring civilians from escaping Gaza to its territory, even for the purpose of transiting to third countries, Egypt is collaborating with Hamas’s war effort. By enabling Egypt to maintain its position, and demanding that Israel allow Hamas to resupply while calling that resupply “humanitarian aid,” the Biden administration is trapping the civilians of Gaza it claims to care about protecting. They will remain under Hamas’s jackboot. They will remain its human shields and cannon fodder.
Similarly, the United States is providing material support for Hamas’s propaganda campaign blaming Israel for the carnage of which Hamas is the sole author — in Israel and Gaza alike.
The United States is also acting in breach of binding international law. As Professor Avi Bell of Bar-Ilan University and University of San Diego law schools explained in an interview on The Caroline Glick Show on Sunday, while Biden and his aides have insisted repeatedly that they expect Israel to respect the international laws of war in its prosecution of its war effort against Hamas, the administration’s positions in relation to that war are illegal.
Following the September 11, 2001 jihadist attacks on the United States, the U.N. Security Council passed resolution 1373 under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter. Chapter 7 resolutions, unlike others, are binding on all UN member nations.
Resolution 1373 stipulates that all UN member nations must “Refrain from providing any form of support, active or passive, to entities or persons involved in terrorist acts.”
Any provision of any aid to Gaza, which is completely controlled by Hamas, is of course either “active or passive” assistance to Hamas, and hence illegal.
Resolution 1373 also requires all UN member states to “Deny safe haven to those who finance, plan, support or commit terrorist acts, or provide safe havens.”
Following Blinken’s visit to Israel last Thursday, he traveled to Qatar. Qatar houses Hamas’s top terror masters. They planned their atrocities from Qatar. Iran’s cash and arms are funneled to Hamas through Qatar. Qatar’s Al Jazeera satellite channel is an integral component of Hamas’s terror machine. On Monday morning, the IDF announced that Al Jazeera reporters are transferring information about IDF troop placements and numbers to Hamas both directly and through their broadcasts.
Qatar is Hamas.
Rather than designate Qatar officially as a state sponsor of terrorism, last Friday Blinken embraced Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassin Al Thani as an ally. And that makes sense because from the administration’s perspective, Hamas’s host is a U.S. ally. Shortly after entering office, the Biden administration designated Qatar a major non-NATO ally—the same designation Israel enjoys.
By embracing Qatar as an ally rather than punishing it for its central role at all levels of Hamas’s terror infrastructure, the administration is breaching international law, yet again. It is also betraying Israel.
In his interview with “60 Minutes,” Biden said that the United States opposes Israel’s war goal of obliterating Hamas and destroying its capacity to govern in any way in Gaza. Instead, Biden drew an obscene, imaginary distinction between Hamas and “extreme elements in Hamas.”
Biden also endorsed the idea that Israel should knock down Hamas a few notches, but not conquer Gaza. Instead, he intimated that the PLO-controlled Palestinian Authority, which supports Hamas and is serving as its foreign ministry at the United Nations and in world capitals, should rule Gaza.
As a superpower, the United States is in a position to side with Israel and Hamas simultaneously. And that is clearly the Biden administration’s current policy. The administration’s goal, apparently, is to block Israel from winning and force it to fight to a draw — in the best-case scenario.
This is perfect for Hamas, which would survive, and with its friends in the United States, the United Nations, Iran, Qatar and throughout the Arab and Western world, rebuild itself stronger than ever.
For Israel, it would be a calamity of biblical proportions. Alone in the world, and treated infamously by its ostensible U.S. ally, Israel would emerge from the war with its regional position in tatters. The peace with Egypt and Jordan would likely not long survive. The Abraham Accords would be undone. And the very notion of normalization of ties with Saudi Arabia would be pushed down the memory hole. Iran would stand as the regional superpower, and within months could be expected to test a nuclear weapon. Israel’s future, in short, would be bleak.
On the face of things, with the Israeli public now united behind the goal of eradicating Hamas, the administration’s position should be impossible to sell to the people of Israel. Apparently recognizing this state of affairs, during a brief visit to Israel on October 12, Blinken made a point of meeting with the Brothers in Arms organization. Until the war, Brothers in Arms was a shock force comprising the backbone of the anti-government riots. Its members routinely assaulted government ministers and Knesset members from Netanyahu’s governing coalition as well as academics, businessmen and journalists who support the Netanyahu government. Brothers in Arms worked to undermine the readiness of the IDF by calling for members of key military reserve units, first and foremost Air Force pilots, to refuse to serve under the Netanyahu government.
Since the atrocities of October 7, with the support of its billionaire funders, Brothers in Arms has launched an extraordinary, massive civilian assistance campaign for the south — second to none in the national war effort. Its operation has won it the legitimate plaudits from all sectors of Israeli society.
All the same, Blinken’s visit to their aid operation was a signal to Netanyahu. Likewise regarding his decision to meet with opposition leader Yair Lapid during his visit on Monday. To wit, if Netanyahu fails to bow to the administration’s pressure to save Hamas, the administration will turn to the likes of Brothers in Arms and Lapid to undermine the internal stability and cohesion of Israeli society once again, this time at the height of the ground operation in Gaza.
Netanyahu, hobbled politically by the assault, may be living through his final days as national leader. Even many of his most fervent supporters are intimating that he may be forced to resign when the war has ended. Whether Netanyahu sees the end before him, or believes he will be able to stay in power once the war is over, his future and his legacy are now on the line.
If Netanyahu stands up to the United States, he may face a renewal of the violent protests against him and his government. If it happens, the goal of the operatives organizing the protests will be to undermine morale in a time of war. Judging by media coverage to date, the rioters will be supported by nearly every media organ in the country.
On the other hand, if he stands up to Biden, Netanyahu will give the soldiers and commanders of the IDF the opportunity to fight this war to victory and secure Israel for the next many years.
If Netanyahu fails to stand up to the United States, if he buckles, the pressure from Washington won’t stop. By buckling, he will merely whet the appetites of the likes of U.S. envoy to the Palestinians Hady Amr — who has a public record of supporting Hamas (and worked in Doha, Qatar during the Trump years). Amr and his colleagues will pocket Israel’s first concession and demand more, and more, and more, in coordination with Hamas, the PLO, Qatar and Egypt.
Following the war, Netanyahu will be pushed out of office, his legacy in tatters forever. The Israel he will leave behind will be one where Jewish sovereignty will be placed in doubt for the first time in 75 years.
Now is no time to go wobbly.
Caroline Glick is an award-winning columnist and author of The Israeli Solution: A One-State Plan for Peace in the Middle East.
end
Watch: Trump Slams Biden For Handing $100 Million To Palestinians
After Joe Biden announced a $100 million handout will go to Gaza, Judea and Samaria, critics, and even Biden himself, pointed out that there’s a high likelihood that the aid will just end up in the hands of Hamas terrorists.
An exasperated Donald Trump summed up how most conservatives feel about the announcement, noting “I think right now it’s totally inappropriate. It’s so inappropriate — to be doing that right now? He’s over in Israel, and he’s giving money to the Palestinians.”
“Biden is sending $100 million to the Palestinians. It’s totally inappropriate. He’s over in Israel and he’s giving money to the Palestinians. Very inappropriate!” pic.twitter.com/kXwk5ts7Pr— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) October 19, 2023
Trump had ended all aid for Gaza while he was President, but Biden restarted it again in 2021, promising an initial $235 million to the Palestinians.
Biden claimed that there are “mechanisms in place” that will make sure the fresh round of aid doesn’t get swiped by terrorists, but failed to explain what they are:
I just announced $100 million for humanitarian assistance in Gaza and the West Bank.
This money will support over 1 million displaced and conflict-affected Palestinians.
And we will have mechanisms in place so this aid reaches those in need – not Hamas or terrorist groups.— President Biden (@POTUS) October 18, 2023
Other Republicans shared Trump’s disbelief:
Under present circumstances, “humanitarian assistance” = resupply for Hamas terrorists. President Biden continues to embolden Iran and its terror proxies. https://t.co/AuouSepdJu— Tom Cotton (@SenTomCotton) October 18, 2023
Aid to the Gaza Strip is what Biden is prioritizing today? This aid will of course be commandeered by Hamas.
Not a single dollar of U.S. aid should go to Hamas-controlled Gaza until all hostages, including AMERICANS, are safely released. I’ll be on the Senate floor later to pass my Stop Taxpayer Funding of Hamas Act to guarantee that.
Biden returned from Israel Wednesday but not before making some unbelievable comments including suggesting that jihadists should “learn how to shoot straight”:
Joe Biden is now giving advice to terrorists:
“I’m not suggesting that Hamas deliberately did it, it’s that old thing – ‘gotta learn how to shoot straight.'” pic.twitter.com/kspDKBBJvG— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) October 19, 2023
It was bad enough when @JoeBiden freed up $6 billion to Iran, which funded the initial slaughter
It was bad enough that he greenlit $100 million more this morning
Now, Joe suggests that Hamas terrorists should do a better job of targeting innocent Israeli civilians
US Bases Hit By Drones, Rockets In Syria As Israeli Army Given ‘Green Light’ To Enter Gaza
THURSDAY, OCT 19, 2023 – 01:50 PM
With the whole region still on edge due to fast moving events in Gaza and on the Lebanese border, US troops in Syria have again come under attack, this time by drones which may have caused injuries.
Drones were sent, allegedly by “Iran-linked” paramilitary groups, against an oil facility in eastern Syria housing American troops, as well as against a US military outpost in the southern desert near Iraq.
Al-Tanf base, which is the Pentagon’s lone outpost in the south along the Iraq border, was the separate base that came under attack, per a Beirut-based news source:
According to informed sources who spoke with Al-Mayadeen, three drones were able to fly above the Al-Tanf base at the Syrian-Iraqi-Jordanian border and launch several successful airstrikes.
“The attack led to a major alert within [Al-Tanf], with continuous flights of military aircraft and helicopters in the area,” Al-Mayadeen reported.
Sources within the US-led coalition that spoke with Iraq’s Shafaq News on Wednesday claimed that the occupation forces “successfully intercepted and downed two of the drones, but the third managed to target the base.”
The US occupation base at Conoco oil field in Deir Ezzor governorate was also hit by multiple rockets.
As of Thursday Israel’s military has reportedly been given the “green light” to enter Gaza…
In the overnight hours, exchanges of fire between the Syrian Army or paramilitaries and Israel were observed in the south. “Sounds of explosions rang out in the province of Quneitra after an Israeli strike against a Syrian army position,” said a regional monitor.
The IDF has also in the last several hours affirmed it is striking against “terrorist positions” of Hezbollah in the region.
Some regional correspondents have said missiles were launched against US bases in Syria as well…
The US military has confirmed its bases in Syria have come under attack, after the day prior US positions in Iraq were attacked as well. Casualties or officials details have remained unclear.
Targeting American troops in Syria and Iraq shows just how dangerous things could rapidly get for Pentagon forces in the region. If Hezbollah and Israel enter full war along the border, these American bases would likely suffer much bigger attacks.
end
Robert h to us:
Hal Turner Radio Show – LIVE UPDATES IN PROGRESS 2:28 PM EDT -Israeli Defense Minister to Troops: “The Order will soon be given”
The March to war continues .. anyone in the Middle East should leave before it starts in earnest .. expect violence in Europe as those weapons sold by the criminals in Ukraine will be used
Maybe Saudi Arabia must rethink its strategy of joining Iran.
(zerohedge)
Oil Surges After Report US Destroyer Shoots Down Multiple Houthi Missiles
THURSDAY, OCT 19, 2023 – 05:58 PM
Update(1458ET): A huge escalation from Iran-linked militants, just after international headlines reported Israel’s military has been given the “green light” to enter Gaza:
According to CNN, a U.S. Navy vessel operating in the Middle East region intercepted multiple missiles launched from Yemen. A U.S. official says the missiles were launched from the Iran-backed Houthi militant group.
According to more from ABC’s senior Pentagon correspondent, US officials confirm to ABC “the destroyer USS Carney shot down multiple Houthi missiles last night. They were NOT aimed at the ship, but headed in a northerly direction.” There’s speculation that they may have been fired toward Israel in solidarity with Gaza. Israel media is reporting:
Israel believes that the missiles launched from Yemen and intercepted by a US warship today were aimed at Israel – Channel 13
The USS Carney (DDG-64) a Arleigh Burke-Class Destroyer with the U.S. Navy had 3 Missiles launched at it earlier today while in the Red Sea off the Coast of Yemen with all Missiles being Intercepted; the Missiles are believed to have been launched by the “Houthi” Terrorist Group… pic.twitter.com/5pJ5KPXTrF— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 19, 2023
Oil surged as the report hit headlines…
According to geopolitical analyst Jason Brodsky, this means Iranian-backed ‘resistance’ movements are achieving “unification of the fronts: first Gaza, then skirmishes from Hezbollah, Iraq, Syria, now Yemen.”
* * *
With the whole region still on edge due to fast moving events in Gaza and on the Lebanese border, US troops in Syria have again come under attack, this time by drones which may have caused injuries.
Drones were sent, allegedly by “Iran-linked” paramilitary groups, against an oil facility in eastern Syria housing American troops, as well as against a US military outpost in the southern desert near Iraq.
Al-Tanf base, which is the Pentagon’s lone outpost in the south along the Iraq border, was the separate base that came under attack, per a Beirut-based news source:
According to informed sources who spoke with Al-Mayadeen, three drones were able to fly above the Al-Tanf base at the Syrian-Iraqi-Jordanian border and launch several successful airstrikes.
“The attack led to a major alert within [Al-Tanf], with continuous flights of military aircraft and helicopters in the area,” Al-Mayadeen reported.
Sources within the US-led coalition that spoke with Iraq’s Shafaq News on Wednesday claimed that the occupation forces “successfully intercepted and downed two of the drones, but the third managed to target the base.”
The US occupation base at Conoco oil field in Deir Ezzor governorate was also hit by multiple rockets.
As of Thursday Israel’s military has reportedly been given the “green light”to enter Gaza…
The Israeli military has a “green light” to move into Gaza whenever it’s ready, a member of the country’s security cabinet told ABC News.
Hostages and civilian casualties will be secondary to destroying Hamas, Economy Minister Nir Barakat told ABC News, “even if it takes a year.”
And more dire threats from Israeli officials:
Asked about the miles of tunnels Hamas has built under Gaza, he said they’d become the “world’s biggest cemetery.” Hamas has claimed to be holding some or all of the 203 Israeli hostages it’s taken within that vast network.
“We shall do all efforts to bring our hostages, to bring our hostages [back] alive…” he said, but the “first and last priority” is destroying Hamas.
In the overnight hours, exchanges of fire between the Syrian Army or paramilitaries and Israel were observed in the south. “Sounds of explosions rang out in the province of Quneitra after an Israeli strike against a Syrian army position,” said a regional monitor.
The IDF has also in the last several hours affirmed it is striking against “terrorist positions” of Hezbollah in the region.
Some regional correspondents have said missiles were launched against US bases in Syria as well…
The US military has confirmed its bases in Syria have come under attack, after the day prior US positions in Iraq were attacked as well. Casualties or officials details have remained unclear.
Targeting American troops in Syria and Iraq shows just how dangerous things could rapidly get for Pentagon forces in the region. If Hezbollah and Israel enter full war along the border, these American bases would likely suffer much bigger attacks.
6.GLOBAL ISSUES AND VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
FDA Finds ‘Signal’ For Seizures Among COVID-19 Vaccinated Toddlers
A safety signal of seizures for young children following COVID-19 vaccination has been detected by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
Seizures/convulsions “met the statistical threshold for a signal” in children aged 2 to 4 following receipt of a Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine and children aged 2 to 5 following receipt of a Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, researchers with the FDA and three large healthcare companies said in a new preprint study.
A safety signal is a sign that a health condition may be caused by vaccination, but further research is required to verify a link.
The data came from three health claims databases run by Optum, Carelon Research, and CVS Health, supplemented with vaccination information from state and local systems. The health claims databases are part of the FDA’s Biologics Effectiveness and Safety System, a drug safety monitoring system.
Researchers looked at 15 health conditions following vaccination entered in the commercial databases and compared rates among children aged 6 months old to 17 years old to background rates from 2019, 2020, or both.
Overall, 72 cases of seizures/convulsions were recorded within seven days of a shot among toddlers and other young children. Most happened within three days of a shot.
When stratifying the data by dose, the researchers found signals for dose one and dose two for Pfizer’s shot in two of the three databases in children aged 2 to 4. They also found a signal following dose two of Moderna’s shot in children aged two to five.
The signal for seizures/convulsions for the young children “has not been previously reported for this age group in active surveillance studies of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines,” the researchers said, referring to the Pfizer and Moderna shots.
There are reports of seizures and convulsions after COVID-19 vaccination among children in the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System, the researchers noted. Though anybody can lodge reports with the system, most are made by health care professionals.
Another five convulsions were reported after Pfizer vaccination in Pfizer’s clinical trial.
The research did not cover the bivalent COVID-19 vaccines, which were introduced for some populations in 2022 and completely replaced the old vaccines in April, or the newest versions of the vaccines that were rolled out in September. It’s not clear when the signal was first detected. The FDA and Patricia Lloyd, an FDA statistician who is the study’s corresponding author, did not respond to requests for comment. Pfizer and Moderna did not return inquiries.
Caution Warranted: Researchers
The researchers said the signal “should be interpreted with caution and further investigated in a more robust epidemiological study.”
That’s partly because the signal disappeared when changing background rate years.
The signal was detected when comparing rates with background rates from 2020. But when using background rates from 2022, which were about 2.3 times higher, a signal was not detected.
The higher number of cases in 2022 may stem from an increased incidence of respiratory infections such as influenza, the researchers posited.
The case count may have also included seizures “unrelated to vaccination,” the researchers said.
Similar to previously analyzed data from the same system, the researchers also detected a signal for heart inflammation and a related condition, or myocarditis and pericarditis, for children aged 12 to 17. Because that signal has been knownsince 2021, researchers did not attempt to further explore it.
No other signals were detected.
Strengths of the study include the population covered by the databases being large and geographically diverse. Limitations include a lack of control of confounding factors.
Stroke Risk in Elderly
The FDA and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in January announced they detected a signal for ischemic stroke for people aged 65 or older following receipt of Pfizer’s bivalent vaccine. Ischemic stroke is a type of stroke caused by blood clotting.
In another preprint paper published on Oct. 15, FDA researchers said they analyzed Medicare data to estimate the risk of stroke after bivalent vaccination.
They included Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 or older who received a bivalent shot or an influenza vaccine and suffered stroke, except for stroke cases deemed to have been caused by something other than a COVID-19 shot.
The primary analysis did not identify an increased risk of stroke, but stratifying the population by age showed an increased risk after Pfizer vaccination for people aged 85 or older of non-hemorrhagic stroke and for non-hemorrhagic stroke/transient ischemic attack. An increased risk was also found for Moderna recipients aged 65 to 74 for non-hemorrhagic stroke/transient ischemic attack.
No increased risk was found for hemorrhagic stroke.
For people who received a Pfizer jab with an influenza shot, an elevated risk of non-hemorrhagic stroke was detected. For people who received a Moderna jab with an influenza shot, an elevated risk of transient ischemic attack was detected.
A separate analysis of only influenza vaccination detected an increased risk of non-hemorrhagic stroke following receipt of a high-dose/adjuvanted influenza shot, and signals for different ages upon stratification.
“Our study did identify an elevated risk of stroke when the COVID-19 bivalent vaccines were administered with a concomitant high-dose/adjuvanted influenza vaccine. However, the observed effects were not consistent,” the researchers, with the FDA and Acumen, said.
A similar finding was detected in a study of data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Vaccine Safety Datalink system.
The researchers said that the study’s findings suggest the elevated risk of stroke in the group that received influenza and COVID-19 vaccines together “was likely driven by influenza vaccination alone rather than concomitant administration.”
specific differences in myocardial injury incidence after COVID-19 mRNA-1273 booster vaccination”; vaccine-associated myocardial injury is more common than thought, more so in females than in males
million foreign aid Biden is giving Palestine (as humanitarian aid) be used to make rockets to fire into Israel? will any of it go to poor Palestinian man and woman & child? or would it be stolen?
KAREN KINGSTON’s excellent stack: mRNA is on Major Losing Streak Moderna (mRNA) has dropped more than 17% in value per the stock’s current 5-day losing streak, and more than 50% in value year-to-date
October 17, 2023: Moderna stock (MRNA) drastically dropped -6.1% (-$5.61 per share) today rounding out a -17.63% (-$18.61 per share) 5-day losing streak for MRNA. Despite Moderna’s Monday news release basically alluding that, “Everything is fine. Nothing to see here. Sales are solid. Pfizer’s a loser, but not MRNA…
attacks Israel with its huge arsenal of rockets, three U.S. officials and one Israeli official with knowledge of the situation tell Axios.; USA MULLS MILITARY RESPONSE TO HEZBOLLAH
‘The White House has been discussing the possibility of using military force if Hezbollah joins the war in Gaza and attacks Israel with its huge arsenal of rockets, three U.S. officials and one Israeli official with knowledge of the situation tell Axios.
hard working, need a prostate exam & life turned inside out to get some credit, working hard all your life paying taxes & these miscreants want to penalize banks for not giving high-risk loans
It’s as if we are living in a dream world and we will wake up one day…these loans are high-risk because the people are ‘illegal’ and have no history, nothing. so why should banks lend? why can’t they do what everyone else has done and establish a credit history etc.? The fact that illegal and immigration status unstable and unfixed, means they could be gone tomorrow or move as often have no fixed address etc. The main issue is that legal Americans are not afforded the same ‘help’ as illegals and it is insane.
‘The Biden Regime is threatening banks that refuse to give illegal aliens credit lines and loans.
‘The current U.S. assessment of Tuesday’s deadly explosion at a hospital in Gaza is that Israel was “not responsible,” according to a spokesperson for the National Security Council.
Why it matters: The explosion set off a furious response — including large protests in Jordan, Lebanon and elsewhere in the hours before President Biden’s visit to the region. Biden said earlier Wednesday that it appeared the “other team,” not Israel, was to blame.
What they’re saying: “While we continue to collect information, our current assessment, based on analysis of overhead imagery, intercepts and open source information, is that Israel is not responsible for the explosion at the hospital in Gaza yesterday,” said NSC spokesperson Adrienne Watson.
That statement came several hours after Biden’s remarks upon arriving in Israel: “Based on what I’ve seen, it appears as though it was done by the other team, not you. But there’s a lot of people out there, not sure,” Biden said.
Biden later clarified that he was speaking based on “the data I was shown by my Defense Department.”
The latest: The IDF released a recording of a conversation between two people it claimed were Hamas operatives. The two individuals say the shrapnel at the hospital doesn’t look like it came from Israeli bombs but rather from rockets used by Islamic Jihad. Axios has not independently verified the authenticity of the recording.
U.K. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly also cast doubt on the idea that Israel was responsible. “Last night, too many jumped to conclusions around the tragic loss of life at Al Ahli hospital. Getting this wrong would put even more lives at risk. Wait for the facts, report them clearly and accurately. Cool heads must prevail,” he wrote on X.’
end
NEWS ADDICTS
LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES
Covid Shots ‘Trigger’ Rheumatoid Arthritis, Study WarnsCovid mRNA shots “trigger” rheumatic immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, including arthritis, vasculitis, lupus, and adult-onset Still’s disease, a new study has warned. The study was conducted by the United Kingdom’s National Health Service (NHS). According to the study, reported by the Epoch Times, patients developed rheumatic diseases an average of 11 days after vaccination. Seventy-five (over 27%) of these patients experienced complete …READ THE FULL REPORT
Arkansas Becomes First State to Force Chinese Company to Give Up LandArkansas ordered the subsidiary of a Chinese-owned company to divest itself of 160 acres (774,400 square yards) of agricultural land on Tuesday, the first such action under a spate of new laws restricting foreign ownership of farmland across the country. Attorney General Tim Griffin stated that Northrup King Seed Co. has two years to dispose of its Craighead County property …READ THE FULL REPORT
Hamas Blames Israel for Horrific Gaza Hospital Bombing, IDF Blames Islamic JihadHamas blames Israel for the horrific hospital bombing in Gaza, while the IDF blames Islamic Jihad. Tuesday’s bombardment of a Gaza hospital reportedly resulted in the deaths of hundreds of Palestinians, with Hamas-affiliated officials and the Israeli Defense Forces each blaming the other for the attack. CNN’s Jake Tapper reported the news, stating that the IDF “just a few minutes …READ THE FULL REPORT
Biden’s DOJ Seeks Harsher Prison Terms for J6 Prisoners Given 10-22 Year SentencesBiden’s Department of Justice seeks lengthier prison terms for Proud Boys sentenced to 10 to 22 years in January 6 cases. The Department of Justice is requesting longer prison terms for five Proud Boys members who received 10-to-22-year sentences in connection with the January 6, 2021, protest at the Capitol. Prosecutors from the Department of Justice filed a notice of appeal …READ THE FULL REPORT
EVOL NEWS… Bill Gates Caught Lying, Claims He Never Talked ‘about Masks at All’READ MORE…LATEST NEWS:Covid Shots ‘Trigger’ Rheumatoid Arthritis, Study WarnsRead more…Bannon: “We haven’t done this since Casablanca and Cairo back in World War 2”Read more…BREAKING: Protesters Storm U.S. Embassy In Beirut, Israeli Diplomatic Posts Across Islamic World,Read more…GenocideRead more…Biden’s DOJ Seeks Harsher Prison Terms for J6 Prisoners Given 10-22 Year SentencesRead more…BREAKING: Lebanon’s U.S. Embassy In Chaos As Protestors DescendRead more…Rocket Misfired by Palestinian Terror Group to Blame for Hospital Blast That Killed Hundreds: IDFRead more…WATCH: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz Is Evacuated To A Bomb Shelter As Rockets Strike Israeli AirportRead more…
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
Europe: The Magical Land Of Mickey Mouse
THURSDAY, OCT 19, 2023 – 10:35 AM
By Bas van Geffen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
On The Wrong Track
For no other reason than historical, the entire European Parliament migrates from Brussels to Strasbourg for one week each month. To orchestrate the move, the parliament charters entire trains. This practice has drawn criticism and ridicule at the best of times. Earlier this week, due to a switching error, dozens of Members of European Parliament heading for Strasbourg found themselves at Disneyland instead. The symbolism of the error invites numerous jokes, such as POLITICO recalling that the EP is regularly seen as a Mickey Mouse Parliament– though I would say that Mr. Mouse probably runs a tighter ship than Europe.
The events in the Middle East again put the finger on the EU’s weakest spot: foreign policy. Take, for instance, the internal row over Von der Leyen’s trip to Israel – with many diplomats accusing her of policy overreach when she delivered a speech that not all countries could support. And last week the EU had to reverse its decision to halt aid to Palestine within hours of its announcement after furore from national governments. Indeed, European policymakers have been at pains to formulate a response that everyone could stand behind.
European officials aboard the train underwent their delay with a sense of humor too, with one jokingly suggesting that Disney’s slogan – When magic comes to life – could soon become the European Parliament’s as well. All jokes aside, European politicians could use a bit of magic to realize their dreams of strategic autonomy and a greener economy.
Because outside the gates of the Magic Kingdom, reality sadly still looks very grim. The deadly explosion at the Al-Ahli hospital turned US President Biden’s objective to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East into a herculean task. Accusations and (fake) evidence of involvement of both sides circulated. Despite this uncertainty, various countries were quick to condemn the attack, with many (initially) putting the blame on Israel. A day later, various intelligence sources suggest that the explosion was more likely caused by a misfired missile from Islamic Jihad militants. President Biden told Israel’s Netanyahu that “it appears as though it was done by the other team, not you,” according to his Department of Defence. While this may have shifted the perspective of some countries, it probably hasn’t changed the opinion of leaders of other Middle Eastern countries.
At the same time, President Biden’s attempts to de-escalate the situation may have partly fallen on deaf ears in Israel as well. “Justice must be done,” Biden said. “But while you feel that rage, don’t be consumed by it,” noting that many Palestinians are innocent and simply caught in the middle of this conflict. Yet, that advice may not be sufficient to see the Israeli leaders back down from a ground operation. And, especially after the cause of the hospital explosion is still being questioned in the Arab world, any such escalation from Israeli side comes with the risk that other countries may get (more) involved in the conflict.
But Israel, of course, has support from the US. Biden reiterated this yesterday: “[You] have to continue to ensure that you have what you need to defend yourselves. And we’re going to make sure that occurs, as you know.”Bloomberg reported that the US President is considering a supplemental request of $100 billion(!), which “would include defense assistance for Israel and Ukraine alongside border security funding and aid to nations in the Indo-Pacific, including Taiwan”.
Returning back to inside the gates of Europe’s land of wonders, the outside situation is unfortunately already seeping in. Not only politicians are divided; so too is the population. Security personnel have been on high alert for conflicts between supporters of both sides. Yesterday, the palace of Versailles was evacuated for a third time in just days, and several French airports were evacuated after threats were made against them.
Meanwhile, park maintenance is ongoing, as governments are unhappy that popular rides are unavailable to many Europeans. To allow more people past the ‘you must be this tall to ride’-signs on popular attractions like the housing market – with a steadily increasing lower bound owing to the ECB’s policies – several governments have launched, or extended, support programmes. France’s Le Maire announced an expansion of the zero-interest loan (‘PTZ’) programme. The policy supports households looking to buy a house in areas where the property market is tight, by making available –under certain conditions– interest-free loans of up to €100,000 (with the state covering the interest payments instead). The finance minister said, “The increase in rates prevents many French people from accessing a mortgage loan. […] We want as many households as possible to have access to housing loans.” Some middle class households will now also be entitled, and about 200 cities will be added to the list of eligible regions.
Le Maire estimates that this could cost the government around €850 million. A back of the envelope estimate suggests the government expects to help some 230,000 households. Yes, that is less than 1% of French households, but it could nonetheless pose a headache for the ECB. Other countries have taken similar measures to shield households from higher mortgage costs – take Spain and Italy. And the measures help those with lower incomes and first time buyers, which have relatively elastic demand curves. By contrast, those with existing mortgages – and a sufficiently long fixed rate period – are less sensitive to rising rates. And so, these measures, noble as their intentions are, could dull the impact of monetary policy at a time when the ECB is desperately trying to get people to behave more like Scrooge McDuck.
It also raises questions about the number of seats left on the (Fiscal) Space Mountain ride: Le Maire himself has said he would seek an additional €1 billion in spending cuts on top of the €16 billion in cost reductions unveiled in the draft 2024 budget last month, as governments are also starting to feel the impact of higher financing costs.
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES/USA AND GLOBE
Biden lifts sanctions on Maduro in exchange for oil
(zerohedge)
Biden Lifts Sanctions On Venezuela Dictator Maduro In Exchange For Oil
THURSDAY, OCT 19, 2023 – 07:39 AM
A panicking Joe Biden has realized that his best friends, now that oil prices are soaring again and the SPR remains largely drained, are tinpot banana-republic “dictators” (in the White House’s own words) like Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, and on Wednesday the White House suspended sanctions on Venezuelan oil, gas and gold production. But since it would be too corrupt even for Biden to drop sanctions on Maduro in exchange for just a few barrels oil and nothing else, the White House pretended that the deal was in exchange for “promoting democracy”, and In return the Nicolas Maduro government promised a deal with the opposition that could see elections held next year. Which likely means 100% mail-in ballots and Dominion machines to “count” them.
“The United States welcomes the signing of an electoral roadmap agreement between the Unitary Platform and Maduro representatives,” Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson said in a news release.
“Consistent with U.S. sanctions policy, in response to these democratic developments, the U.S. Department of the Treasury has issued General Licenses authorizing transactions involving Venezuela’s oil and gas sector and gold sector, as well as removing the ban on secondary trading,” he added.
The statement cautioned that the Treasury reserves the right to revoke any or all of the newly issued licenses in case the “Maduro representatives” fail to stick to their word regarding a new electoral map for Venezuela. Of course, the Biden admin won’t revoke the deal as long as it gets some oil; then once Biden loses the 2024 elections all bets are off.
Reports about the deal emerged earlier this month, following a string of signals from Washington it was ready to ease the sanction regime in return for commitments from the Venezuelan government to hold new elections.
The U.S. made the biggest move in that direction last year, when it granted Chevron a license to return to Venezuela, and that was without asking for commitments from the Maduro regime because imports of Russian heavy crude had to be replaced urgently with Venezuelan heavy.
Now, the new license regime would allow financial transactions involving PDVSA, which could boost Venezuelan oil exports significantly.
Crude oil exports from Venezuela last month topped 800,000 barrels daily, which was the second-highest monthly export rate since the start of the year. Most of the exports went to China, Reuters reported in early October.
So how much oil is Biden’s deal unlocking? According to Bloomberg, Venezuela could be able to raise its crude oil production by 25% from current levels if the temporary U.S. easing of the oil sanctions becomes permanent.
Venezuela’s oil production currently stands at a paltry 800,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to various estimates. The eased sanctions would allow the South American country holding the world’s largest crude oil reserves to boost production by 200,000 bpd, analysts say, although the timing of achieving this increase remains uncertain.
Oil stocks will be in focus Thursday as crude slid on the confirmation of the sanctions being lifted.
Occidental Petroleum, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Schlumberger are all lower by about 1% in premarket trading.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
end
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0562 UP 0.0024
USA/ YEN 149.82 UP .048 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2123 DOWN 0.0019
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3720 UP .0007 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 7 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 53.32 PTS OR 1.74%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 436.63 PTS OR 2.46%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.28% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 436.63 PTS OR 2.46%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 53.32 PTS OR 1.74%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.28%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 611.63 PTS OR 1.91%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1951.00
silver:$22.88
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 106.26 DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.3135
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.3351)
TURKISH LIRA: 27.99 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.847…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.927% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.996 DOWN 1 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.214 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 80.07 POINTS or 1.06%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 54.08 PTS OR 0.36%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 47.21 PTS OR 0.68%
Spain IBEX DOWN 60,50 PTS OR 0.66%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 372.11 PTS OR 1.32%
WTI Oil price 88.52 12: EST
Brent Oil: 91.80 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 97.06; ROUBLE UP 0 AND 28//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.9210 DOWN 1/ 4 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.713 UP 6 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0586 UP 0.0049 OR 49 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2149 UP .0009 or 9 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.7495% UP 4 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .844%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.80 UP 0.027 //YEN DOWN 3 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3715 UP .0001 CDN dollar DOWN 1 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 90.11
Brent OIL: 93.20
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS pts to 4.977%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 10 BASIS PTS to 5.096%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 6 PTS AT 5.161 %
USA dollar index: 105.98 DOWN 37 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 27.96 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 97.05 UP 0 AND 34/100 roubles
GOLD 1977.00
SILVER: 23.04
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 251.04 PTS OR 0.75%
NASDAQ DOWN 1256.13 PTS OR 0.85%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 20.90 UP 1.69PTS (8,74)%
GLD: $183.09 UP 2.22 OR 1.23%
SLV/ $21.11 UP 0.16 OR 0.76%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Yields Soar, Oil Roars As Stocks Plunge In Rollercoaster Session
THURSDAY, OCT 19, 2023 – 04:08 PM
With traders already exhausted by relentless, brutal daily whipsaws, today was not the day anyone expected the rollercoaster would end, and a good thing too because it was another brutal day for those tracking every twist and turn in the S&P, which in turn was pingponged about by headlines from both the New York Economic Club where Powell was speaking and also from the middle east, where the war between Israel and Hamas threatens to erupt into a much bigger regional conflict with every passing day.
With too much going on for a blow by blow, here is a chart summary of some of the key market reversals today, starting with the Powell rollercoaster and then progressing to the latest (adverse) developments out of the Middle East.
While stocks had a bad day, 0DTE traders were even more bearish, with the Delta flow outpacing the decline in equities by a sizable margin.
Virtually every sector was red…
… with the only outlier being communication services which was green thanks to just one company: Netflix, which soared as much as 17%, its biggest one-day surge since Jan 2021…
… but while NFLX longs rejoiced, the same could not be said for TSLA shareholders: Elon Musk’s EV company tumbled more than 10%, its worst drop since Jan 2023.
And as stocks tumbled, the VIX soared, and after 105 consecutive days of closing below 20, the longest streak since 2019…
… the VIX index finally closed above 20 – in fact above 21 – breaking the streak on day 106.
But believe it or not, the swings in the S&P, which weren’t even that wild with the S&P failing to drop more than 1%, were not the day’s main event: that would be the combination of soaring yields, which saw the 10Y rise as high as 4.992% and the 30Y touch 5.10%, levels which Morgan Stanley and Goldman both said earlier were buy triggers…
… as well as the surge in oil, which exploded $4 from session lows, and sent WTI above $89 and Brent above $93.
EARLY MORNING TRADING/
TUCKER CARLSON..
end
II USA DATA
Generally we do not pay attention to the jobless numbers but today, we witness continuing jobless claims jump to its highest since July. The corrupt initial claims plunge.
do not pay much attention to these data points
(zerohedge)
Continuing Jobless Claims Jumps To Highest Since July As Initial Claims Plunge
THURSDAY, OCT 19, 2023 – 08:37 AM
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time tumbled back below 200k last week (198k vs 210k exp vs 211k prior). Un-adjusted initial claims declined to 172k, the lowest since Oct 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Ohio ‘Fraud’ has been erased completely and claims from that state are near record lows…
Source: Bloomberg
However, Continuing claims accelerated again, up to 1.734mm Americans – highest since July
With regard to continuing claims, Goldman reminds us that ongoing seasonal distortions have increasingly weighed on the level of continuing claims over the last six months, and we now expect that the reversal of those distortions could exert a cumulative boost of 375k to the level of continuing claims between now and March.
Interestingly, since we highlighted the recent surge trend higher in WARN notices (reminder – The WARN Act obliges employers with more than 100 full-time workers to provide written notice to the state and the workers themselves at least 60-90 days ahead of planned plant closings and mass layoffs), all of a sudden, those WARN notices have collapsed (suddenly out of nowhere the biggest MoM drop since Nov 2020 – COVID vaccines!)
Seasonal adjustments to the rescue again?!
end
Fifteen straight negative numbers: worst since Lehman
(zerohedge)
Philly Fed Future Expectations For Shipments/CapEx Near ‘Worst Since Lehman’ Levels
THURSDAY, OCT 19, 2023 – 08:59 AM
The headline Philly Fed Business Sector Outlook survey print was -9 in October, worse than the -7 expected, but a small bounce from the -13 print in September, as almost 35% of the firms reported decreases in general activity this month.
That is the end of the good news.
This is the index’s 15th negative reading in the past 17 months.
Source: Bloomberg
While general activity remained negative, indicators for new orders and shipments were positive but low, and and both price indexes indicate overall increases in prices. The percentage of firms reporting increases in input prices (29%) exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (6%).
However, it gets worse, as future indicators declined significantly.
The future new orders index decreased 7 points to 18.9, while the future shipments index dropped 25 points to 5.4, its lowest reading since May.
The future capital expenditures index fell from 7.5 to ‑4.8, offsetting its increase from last month.
Source: Bloomberg
Those are equal to the weakest levels since ‘Lehman’ in 2008… Bidenomics?
end
Housing is a very important sector for the uSA economy; USA existing home sales tumble to its weakest in 13 years and this is due to the high 8% mortgage rates
(zerohedge)
US Existing Home Sales Tumble To Weakest In 13 Years; First-Time Buyers Historical Lows
THURSDAY, OCT 19, 2023 – 10:09 AM
With housing affordability at its lowest since at least the early 1980s, (as supply suffers with housing starts slumping, and mortgage rates continuing to surge), it’s no surprise that analysts expected existing home sales in September to tumble 3.7% MoM. Sales actually fell 2.0% MoM (so better than expected, but still the 19th monthly decline in the last 22 months). That decline left existing home sales down over 15% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
The total existing home sales SAAR dropped back below 4mm for the first time since October 2010 (during the foreclosure crisis)…
Source: Bloomberg
Sales fell in all regions except the Northeast in September… and in every price range…
Single-family home sales fell to an annualized 3.53 million pace, the lowest since 2010. Condominium and co-op sales also declined.
“As has been the case throughout this year, limited inventory and low housing affordability continue to hamper home sales,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.
“The Federal Reserve simply cannot keep raising interest rates in light of softening inflation and weakening job gains.”
First-time buyers made up a historically low 27% of purchases, down from the prior month.
Cash sales represented 29% of total sales, matching the highest level in over a decade. Investors, who often purchase with cash and are therefore less sensitive to mortgage rates, made up 18% of the market.
“It would be very unusual to have higher cash compared to first time buyers,” Yun said on a call with reporters.
And, if mortgage rates (and thus affordability) are anything to go by, things are about to get real…
Source: Bloomberg
The median selling price rose 2.8% from a year earlier to $394,300, the highest September reading on record, pushing affordability even lower. But existing home prices are falling relative to new home prices (with the ratio near record lows)…
Not a very good sign: USA leading indicators tumble for the 18th straight month.
(zerohedge)
US Leading Indicators Tumble For 18th Straight Month, “Shallow Recession” In 1H24
THURSDAY, OCT 19, 2023 – 10:25 AM
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) continued its decline in September, dropping 0.7% MoM (worse than the 0.4% decline expected).
The biggest positive contributor to the leading index was jobless claims at +0.13
The biggest negative contributor was average consumer expectations at -0.19
This is the 18th straight monthly decline in the LEI (and 18th month of 19) – the longest streak of declines since ‘Lehman’ (22 straight months of declines from June 2007 to April 2008)
“In September, negative or flat contributions from nine of the index’s ten components more than offset fewer initial claims for unemployment insurance.
Although the six-month growth rate in the LEI is somewhat less negative, and the recession signal did not sound, it still signals risk of economic weakness ahead. So far, the US economy has shown considerable resilience despite pressures from rising interest rates and high inflation.
Nonetheless, The Conference Board forecasts that this trend will not be sustained for much longer, and a shallow recession is likely in the first half of 2024.”
Despite ‘soft landing’ hype, the LEI is showing no signs at all of ‘recovering’, tumbling back in line with the peak in March 2006…
And on a year-over-year basis, the LEI is down 7.8% – close to its biggest YoY drop since 2008 (Lehman) outside of the COVID lockdown-enforced collapse…
Not a good sign for Real GDP. (The annual growth rate of the LEI remained negative, confirming weaker economic activity ahead)…
The trajectory of the US LEI continues to signal a recession over the next 12 months
Is this the cleanest view of The Fed’s tightening impact on the US economy? Certainly doesn’t look like a ‘soft’ landing…
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
Jan 6 all over again as pro Palestinian protesters occupy the Capitol building
(zerohedge)
Insurrection? Pro-Palestinian Protesters Occupy Capitol Building
WEDNESDAY, OCT 18, 2023 – 05:00 PM
The far-left pro-Palestinian protests continue in the US with activists now occupying the Capitol, accusing lawmakers of having Palestinian blood on their hands.
As with most leftist efforts, the first goal is a narrative shift in which the people who triggered the conflict are painted as victims. The Hamas soldiers who launched terrorist attacks killing thousands of civilians in Israel are dismissed down the memory hole, and now the focus is only on Palestinian tragedy.
The most logical decision is for America to stay out of the conflict completely. However, rabid involvement by leftists on the side of Hamas may actually push a majority of Americans to throw full support behind Israel simply because any cause backed by woke organizations is a cause worth obstructing. The public will ask themselves: “When have these people ever been right?”
The DC event adds insult to injury, considering Democrats have been accusing conservatives of insurrection for the past few years after occupying the Capitol.
But of course, it’s only insurrection when conservatives do it…
END
FREIGHT ISSUES
Trucking recession deepens as the company Convoy cancels all shipments and their load board is empty
(Freightwaves)
Trucking Recession Deepens As Bezos, Gates-Backed Convoy Cancels All Shipments, Load Board Is Empty
A change is brewing in the next day or two at Seattle-based digital brokerage Convoy, with reports Wednesday of all loads being canceled.
A communication from Convoy representatives to their customers, obtained by FreightWaves, said the company is “taking several necessary steps to prepare Convoy’s business for a transition that we will have more details on in the next 48 hours.”
The message from Convoy said the company could not “answer any additional questions at this time.”
A Convoy spokeswoman issued a brief statement to FreightWaves, also citing potential developments in the next 24 to 48 hours, without elaborating further.
And with that, according to the communication, “all shipments have been canceled from our marketplace.” Convoy said that shippers could “choose to work with the carriers that were booked on canceled shipments directly.” It did provide an email address — cfbsupport@convoy.com — for customers to use if they needed additional support.
FreightWaves has confirmed that the Convoy load board went blank on Wednesday.
Although the market was filled with rumors of bankruptcy at Convoy Wednesday morning — not surprising when all loads are summarily canceled — there has been no bankruptcy filing by Convoy, according to a check of public records by FreightWaves.
In April 2022, Convoy was valued at $3.8 billion after an investment of $260 million in a Series E capital raise. That money came from existing investors Baillie Gifford and T. Rowe Price and $100 million in venture-debt investment from Hercules Capital Inc. The company has also raised money from Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Capital G, Greylock, Y Combinator, and Fidelity.
That a big change might be coming at Convoy is not surprising. Most if not all brokerage companies are struggling in the current freight market. But beyond that, Convoy in August hired an investment bank, reportedly Goldman Sachs, to help it explore possible options for its future ownership and capitalization. The list of potential suitors that might acquire or take a stake in Convoy — according to the rumor mill — has included C.H. Robinson, Walmart, Amazon and Maersk.
Besides that development, there has been significant upheaval at Convoy in the last several months. In June, Grant Goodalle, Convoy’s co-founder and chief experience officer, said he was leaving the firm.
In February, Convoy said it would undertake a restructuring. Along with that, the company made an undisclosed number of layoffs, though that has been a persistent theme in brokerages this year.
end
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
end
USA// COVID//VACCINE/
end
SWAMP STORIES
Jordan Nixes 3rd Speaker Vote, Will Support McHenry As Interim Until January
THURSDAY, OCT 19, 2023 – 11:33 AM
After suffering defeat twice, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) will not hold a third vote for speaker, and will instead back Patrick McHenry (R-NC) as interim speaker until January.
This, after Jordan met with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), McHenry, Cole (R-OK), and Emmer (R-MN) to discuss options, Punchbowl News reports.
After the first two rounds, a group of Republicans made it clear that Jordan wouldn’t enjoy enough support to win the speaker’s gavel. With House functions at a standstill – including dealing with a looming shutdown after the 6-week band-aid expires mid-November, lawmakers can now move forward with a proposal to expand McHenry’s powers. Punchbowl also notes that there’s “essentially no difference between a speaker and a speaker pro tem.”
“There is a question whether a speaker pro tem would be in the presidential line of succession. There are also questions about whether he could take part in other speaker functions that have evolved over the years — Gang of Eight intelligence briefings, for instance.”
Jordan will remain the speaker designee, and will maintain the option to hold a speaker vote at any time.
According to Bloomberg, senior Democrats are supportive of the plan.
As Axios notes, McHenry, 47, will essentially have the same power as an elected speaker. More:
McHenry got two ironic endorsements late yesterday: former GOP speakers Newt Gingrich and John Boehner. Both were run out of office — just like Rep. Kevin McCarthy was a few weeks ago.
Driving the news: Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio) plans to introduce a measure on Wednesday that would temporarily empower McHenry to oversee the passage of legislation, Axios’ Andrew Solender reports.
The plan would be to introduce it if Jordan fails another House floor vote — and it would require McHenry to cooperate by recognizing Joyce on the House floor.
And so, Jordan is off the hook – for now.
END
ust Kidding! Jim Jordan To Seek Third Speaker Vote After Chaos Ensues
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, OCT 19, 2023 – 03:14 PM
Update (1515ET): Earlier Thursday, Jim Jordan said he wouldn’t hold a third ballot for speaker, and would instead let interim speaker Patrick McHenry (R-NC) hold the gavel until January – with Rep. David Joyce (R-OH) drafting legislation to give McHenry the full powers that come with the job.
This rubbed many Republicans the wrong way, as McHenry is backed by Democrats.
“As I have made very clear over the last few days, we should never allow a Democrat-backed coalition government. Ever. The only coalition we should be looking to build is a Republican coalition uniting all of our conference,” said Rep. Tom Emmer.
Steve Scalise, Jordan’s previous opponent for speaker who pulled out, as well as Elise Stefanik (R-NY) arealso opposed to a Dem-friendly speakership going into January.
After suffering defeat twice, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) will not hold a third vote for speaker, and will instead back Patrick McHenry (R-NC) as interim speaker until January.
This, after Jordan met with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), McHenry, Cole (R-OK), and Emmer (R-MN) to discuss options, Punchbowl News reports.
After the first two rounds, a group of Republicans made it clear that Jordan wouldn’t enjoy enough support to win the speaker’s gavel. With House functions at a standstill – including dealing with a looming shutdown after the 6-week band-aid expires mid-November, lawmakers can now move forward with a proposal to expand McHenry’s powers. Punchbowl also notes that there’s “essentially no difference between a speaker and a speaker pro tem.”
“There is a question whether a speaker pro tem would be in the presidential line of succession. There are also questions about whether he could take part in other speaker functions that have evolved over the years — Gang of Eight intelligence briefings, for instance.”
Jordan will remain the speaker designee, and will maintain the option to hold a speaker vote at any time.
According to Bloomberg, senior Democrats are supportive of the plan.
As Axios notes, McHenry, 47, will essentially have the same power as an elected speaker. More:
McHenry got two ironic endorsements late yesterday: former GOP speakers Newt Gingrich and John Boehner. Both were run out of office — just like Rep. Kevin McCarthy was a few weeks ago.
Driving the news: Rep. Dave Joyce (R-Ohio) plans to introduce a measure on Wednesday that would temporarily empower McHenry to oversee the passage of legislation, Axios’ Andrew Solender reports.
The plan would be to introduce it if Jordan fails another House floor vote — and it would require McHenry to cooperate by recognizing Joyce on the House floor.
And so, Jordan is off the hook – for now.
THE KING REPORT
The King Report October 19, 2023 Issue 7100
Independent View of the News
@Israel: Hamas terrorists in their own voices: Listen to the conversation between Hamas operatives as they discuss the failed Islamic Jihad rocket launch on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital on October 17…. (“They shot it from the cemetery behind the hospital…and it misfired and fell on them…”) https://t.co/mz31MiePU3
@Osinttechnical: We now have footage of the (partially) burnt-out parking lot at the Ahli Hospital in Gaza. Overall damage to the structures in the complex appears to be limited, a clay-tiled awning adjacent to the parking lot is still mostly intact. https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714525590873575600 The IDF released drone footage showing the Ahli Hospital in Gaza both before and after the explosion overnight. The IDF points out the absence of a crater and the lack of damage to surrounding buildings.https://t.co/UodlmuruS8
@michaelpsenger: Yesterday, when @NYTimes published a fictitious story from Hamas about Israel bombing a hospital, NYT used a picture from a completely different location to make it look like a picture of the hospital that was “destroyed.” Astonishing disinformation and journalistic malpractice. https://twitter.com/michaelpsenger/status/1714790758832898282
@MaajidNawaz: A black flag is raised over Imam Reza shrine in Iran for first time in history. Symbolism in Islamic historic tradition: “When the black flags come from Khorasan (Persia/Central Asia) go to them, even if you have to crawl on snow, among them is the Caliph of Allah, the Mahdi” https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/1714411995074576725
@TheBabylonBee: Biden Departs for Israel to Preside over Opening Ceremonies for World War III
President Biden @POTUS: I just announced $100 million for humanitarian assistance in Gaza and the West Bank. This money will support over 1 million displaced and conflict-affected Palestinians. And we will have mechanisms in place so this aid reaches those in need – not Hamas or terrorist groups.
@RNCResearch: Biden says his comment that yesterday’s Gaza hospital blast was done by “the other team” — NOT the Israel, as many reported using Hamas propaganda — was based on “the data I was shown by my defense department.” https://t.co/1NBKNlkg4V
@RNCResearch: BIDEN: “I asked the secretary of state when he and I were working in the Senate to write something for me and he said he wrote a line that I think is appropriate. He said, ‘It’s not we lead, it’s not just…’ Well, I won’t go into it; I’ll wait ’til later, taking too much time.” (Pathetic & disturbing!) https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1714609411879059471 BIDEN: “I was sitting across from Golda Meir at her desk in her office and she had a guy named— a guy who later became prime minister sitting next to me…” (Brain malfunctions on the global stage) https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1714648578549833975 @Gordon_Kushner : Biden in Israel recollects time he was found in a basket and raised by Hebrews.
@RichardGrenell: Biden was READING his note card while sitting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. He looked half asleep. He’s messaging weakness to the world. @MonicaCrowley: This is a mortifying and dangerous spectacle. Enough. (Video) https://twitter.com/MonicaCrowley/status/1714685808819528180
Actor: @RealJamesWoods: His cognitive abilities are crippled beyond dispute, and to belittle that is unfair. However, BEFORE his dementia was palpable, he was a horrible human being and a crooked worthless political hack. That ugly person is still under there somewhere, and he’s at the helm of the most powerful nation on earth. We are minutes from the end on the Doomsday Clock with this soulless fool in charge. He has GOT to go. Literally the fate of mankind is at stake.
“Hard times create strong men; strong men create good times; good times create weak men; and weakmen create hard times.” — G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain: A Postapocalyptic Novel
Country Garden Says Unlikely to Pay Foreign Debt in Default Sign – BloombergGrace period on $15.4 million of interest ends Oct. 17-18“The company expects that it won’t be able to meet all of its offshore payment obligations on time, due to a deep correction in China’s home market and its subdued sales,” the developer said… Country Garden, whose $186 billion of total liabilities make it one of the world’s most indebted builders, had to pay by the end of a 30-day grace period Oct. 17-18 or a default could be called… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/country-garden-verge-first-default-032721881.html
Oil Rises as Iran Steps up Rhetoric with Call for Israel Embargo – BBG
Crushing Crude Stockpiles Drop to Lowest Since 2014 – BBG (Good thing the US has the SPR!) Fell more than 700,000 barrels last week… the lowest level since October 2014…
Morgan Stanley shares fall 7% as wealth management results disappoint EPS $1.38, vs. $1.28 estimate from LSEG…Revenue: $13.27 billion, vs. expected $13.23 billion… (Net new assets in wealth management shrank to $35.7B from $64.8B a year earlier. – Reuters) https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/18/morgan-stanley-ms-earnings-3q-2023.html
@unusual_whales: The median age of a homebuyer in the U.S. is 36, the oldest-ever in data going back to 1981, according to the National Association of Realtors.
US stocks and bonds declined sharply early on Wednesday. USZs hit 108 25/32, -17/32, at 11:09 ET. The US 30-year hit 5.01%; the 10-year hit 4.92%; and the 2-year hit 5.238%.
WTI Oil hit 89.88, +$3.22, at 5:33 ET. It then tumbled to 87.20 at 9:10 ET. Some pundits and traders opined that Team Biden was once again managing the oil market. WTI Oil rebounded to 88.30 at 9:41 ET and then traded sideways. PS – The DJTA was -3.06% at 10:55 ET due to surging oil prices.
ESZs commenced a decline when the Nikkei opened that ended at 21:00 ET. ESZs then plodded high, but in negative territory, until they declined anew after the 2 ET Chinese close. The decline ended at 3:23 ET on the usual dip buying after the 3 ET European opening. ESZs rallied from 4385.00 to 4396.50 at 4:47 ET. Another down leg began at 5:22 ET; it ended at 10:00 ET. It was time for traders to buy the opening NYSE dip. ESZs jumped from 4372.50 to 4392.50 at 10:20 ET.
Alas, sellers returned, ESZs hit a daily low of 4362.50 at 10:55 ET. The rally for the European close pushed ESZs to 4376.50 at 11:23 ET. Alas again, sellers liquidated into the close. ESZs hit a new low of 4362.00 at 12:01 ET. They bounced to 4375.00 at 12:04 ET after Fed Gov. Waller advocated a pause.
Waller Says Fed Can ‘Watch and See’ If More Rate Hikes Needed – BBG 12:00 ET “I believe we can wait, watch, and see how the economy evolves before making definitive moves on the path of the policy rate… I will be looking carefully at the data… As of today, it is too early to tell.”
USZs bounced 9 ticks on Waller’s pause call. ESZs and USZs retreated after Waller said ‘we still have one rate hike penciled in’; and NY Fed President Williams said inflation has come down, but it still has a long way to go to get it back to target. Williams said rates need to be restrictive ‘for some time.’ The NY Fed President noted that at some point it will make sense to lower rates.
USZs rallied after a good $13B 20-year auction: 5.245% vs. 5.257% WI. USZs hit 109 9/32 at 13:15 ET.
The USZs rally induced ESZs to jump from a daily low of 4351.00 at 13:00 ET to 4378.75 at 13:15 ET. ESZs quickly retreated and fell to 4353.25 at 13:36 ET. The rally for the VIX Fix pushed ESZs to 4373.25 at 14:08 ET. Alas, sellers returned; ESZs sank to new lows.
After hitting a daily low of 4343.75 at 15:07 ET, ESZs began the last-hour rally. After a 7-handle bounce, ESZs rolled over at 15:30 ET and hit new lows. After falling to 4330.75 at 15:49 ET, a late manipulation pushed ESZs to 4351.00 at the NYSE close.
Gold had an intriguing day. December Gold soared to 1975.60, +$40.10, at 9:46 ET. Then, someone decided to destroy gold. ‘Impact selling’ (AKA manipulation) sent the barbaric meal to 1950.60 at 11:07 ET. Organic buyers, thankful for the opportunity to buy at lower prices, sent AU to 1969.50 at 13:25 ET.
Fed Gov. Waller reiterated the Fed’s latest dovish talking point: Higher long-term interest rates means the Fed might not have to hike short-term rates. This is Ivy League level self-serving sophistry. The bond market action suggests the opposite: Mr. Bond believes that the Fed is too loose.
Ergo, the Fed might be the iconic Curley drilling holes in the rowboat to let the water out.
Positive aspects of previous session. A good US 20-year auction boosted bonds – and stocks temporarily
Negative aspects of previous session Bond and note yields jumped again. Mr. Bond to Yellen’s two wars: “I’ll let you know the price!” The DJTA got hammered on soaring oil Oil rallied sharply; December Gold hit a high of 1975.80, +$40.10 (War is inflationary, Jan!)
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Did someone manage the oil and gold markets on Wednesday?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4327.55 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4364.20; 4303.84
GM Postpones Investor Day Presentation; Wall Street Analysts Sound Alarmhttps://t.co/JwT6zTcetE
Apple’s Cook Assured of China Support in Meeting with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wenbin: BBG
@jenniferzeng97: Top-Secret Info: How Does Hamas Chief Mohammad Deif Establish Direct Contact with XiJinping’s Office through his Chinese Muslim Wife? (CCP involved/allied with Hamas?) https://twitter.com/jenniferzeng97/status/1714043722915013080
As it harbored Hamas, Qatar spent $1 billion-plus trying to influence U.S. education, politics Lobbying, university reports detail a vast influence campaign by Arab states on U.S. soil, dwarfing the paid efforts of long-time ally Israel…Since at least 2016, Qatar has spent $77 million hiring 29 foreign registered agents to influence U.S. policy…The country also has handed out about $1.6 billion since June 2020, and $5.4 billion in total… donations and contacts to American universities… President Biden designated Qatar an ally during his second year in office, specifically citing the country’s assistance in the Afghanistan evacuation… (Because it went so well?) Another probable reason for the Biden administration’s reticence to demand that Qatar stop harboring terrorists is that the country has been vital to the administration’s diplomatic efforts with Iran… https://justthenews.com/world/middle-east/qatar-has-almost-30-registered-lobbyists-dc-continues-shelter-hamas-leadership
@lukerosiak: Two possibilities: Either DHS called the PLO to get a job reference as part of the vetting process, or it didn’t vet even the people it hires to vet immigrants She posted to public social media continuously about her true allegiance and goal to “root the resistance in Palestine.” Newja Ali was promoted this year. Asked about it, DHS said “USCIS strongly condemns antisemitism & the use of violent rhetoric in any form,” adding that its vetting officers are unbiased & polite. Reached by phone, Ali said she is still employed & to “mind your ***king business.” GOP Sen. @tedcruz: Indefensible. This antisemitic radical should be fired immediately. Biden “Department of Homeland Security officer is repeatedly posting pictures of Hamas terrorists parachuting in with guns and writing, ‘F*** Israel and any Jew who supports Israel.’”
@greg_price11: This is currently the scene in the Cannon House Office building, which has been taken over bypro-Hamas demonstrators. I’ve been reliably informed that storming a government building means pre-trial solitary confinement for at least a year. https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1714720166401962264 @MonicaCrowley: Insurrection! Terrorist sympathizers in the Capitol obstructing an official proceeding. Looking forward to the indictments, convictions and multi-year prison sentences.
GOP Rep @TXRandy14: Just happened outside of my office…Hamas supporters entered the Capitol and ripped down the “I Stand with Israel” sign outside my office…
@rachelbovard: The House is in a mini-lockdown both inside and outside of their office buildings due to this insurrection.
@Liz_Friden: The U.S. shot down three more one-way kamikaze drones in Iraq on Wednesday, a defense official tells Fox News. Two were in the West and one was in Northern Iraq near Erbil. No U.S. forces were injured, the defense official said.
After the close, Netflix reported EPS of 3.73, 3.49 was consensus. New Net Subscribers are +8.76m, 6.06m expected. NFLX soared as much as 13.1% in after-hour trading.
Tesla reported EPS of .66, .73 was expected. Sales are $23.35B, $24.38B was consensus. TSLA fell 7 points but quickly reversed to a $6.62 gain because Tesla will begin delivery of cyber-trucks on Nov. 30. But Tesla then tumbled to 230 (254.63 after-hour high) after Musk said: “It’s an amazing product but I do want to emphasize that there will be enormous challenges in reaching volume production with the Cybertruckand then in making the Cybertruck cash flow positive…’
@zerohedge: Total US Debt is now $33.649 trillion, up $58 billion in one day and up $604 billion in one month… up $20 billion every day, up $833 million every hour. At this rate US debt will be $41 trillion in one year… (Yellen: We can afford to fight 2 wars.) https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1714788864668156180
Today – Tomorrow is October option expiration. Geopolitical duress has hindered the earnings season and expiry week rallies. Now that equity types have realized that the Middle East is a deadly serious problem, there is no telling if they will sit, swim, or jump out of their holdings.
Normally there is a late rally on the day prior to expiration. However, as expiration nears, retail investors get more anxious about their expiring options, which tend to be weighted to calls. So, today is a crapshoot. A determined few big entities, could dictate action for some period of time (see the gold and oil action on Wednesday!). Biden will address Americans at 20:00 ET on Israel-Hamas and Ukraine.
ESZs are +3.50 and USZs are -10/32 at 21:00 ET.
Expected earnings: T .62, MMC 1.39, GPC 2.39, PM 1.62, FCX .33, AAL .25, SNA 4.44, ALK 1.87, BX 1.00, UNP 2.42, CSX .43 (No impact Fang resultsare scheduled.)
Expected economic data: Initial Jobless Claims 210k, Continuing Claims 1.71m; Oct Phi Fed Business Outlook -6.9; Sept Existing Home Sales 3.89m; Sept LEI -0.4%; Fed VCEO Jefferson 9 ET, Powell at Economic Club of NY Noon ET, Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee 13:20 ET, Fed Gov. Barr 13:30 ET
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4395; 100-day MA: 4409; 150-day MA: 4304; 200-day MA: 4229 DJIA 50-day MA: 34,257; 100-day MA: 34,314; 150-day MA: 33,968; 200-day MA: 33,829 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3828.58 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4473.50 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4281.23 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4354.63 triggers a buy signal
On Air Force One, Biden casually spoke to reporters. It did not go well; Joe did not look well.
If Trump or W Bush said: ‘They gotta learn how to shoot straight’ after the hospital tragedy…
@stillgray:Holy crap. I knew Biden has been traveling a lot recently and probably had very little time to take his usual naps, but is he actually sundowning for real? This is completely incoherent. https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1714769132162527647
@NewsNation: Rep. Jim Jordan failed for a second time to gain enough votes from Republicans in order to secure the House speaker role.
@JJCarafano: NYT 1) okay it wasn’t an Israeli missile, 2) it was a Hamas rocket, 3) okay it hit a parking lot not a hospital, 4) okay there is no way there were 500 or even hundreds of casualties, 5) Yes. Hamas lied. BUT OTHER THAN THAT NYT stands by its reporting!!!
@Doc_0: How about a round of applause for the DNC Media and Democrat politicians who uncritically amplified Hamas propaganda, spreading a story that has already caused violent riots and will probably get people killed? Pro tip, kids: assume the rapists and baby-murderers are LYING.
@Gabby_Hoffman: No greater irony than seeing a lot of “fighters” of misinformation and contrarians pushing Hamas disinformation/terrorist propaganda as accepted fact.A lot of moral rot in both established and independent media these days. Shameful.
@LisaMarieBoothe: Look at the destabilizing impact the Russia hoax had on American politics. The lie about police shootings led to cities being burnt down and deaths, and the lie about the Gazan hospital resulted in unrest worldwide. Are we really to believe those are all just innocent mistakes?
The regime media eagerly publish stories they hope and want to be true without verifying them. And the regime media ignores or downplays stories that are contra to their core biases.
@CarpeDonktum: There is not a government or regime on Earth that isn’t constantly lying to the public. The free press was the last line of defense against the propaganda of the cruel and merciless. The fall of journalism and the rise of fake news have delivered all of us into their hands.
@TheBabylonBee: New York Times Patiently Awaiting Zoom Call from Hamas to See What They Should Print Todayhttps://buff.ly/3FrVlAU
Chicago prof at School of the Art Institute slammed for posts saying ‘Israelis are pigs’https://trib.al/NcClCAe
Man slugs woman in the face on NYC subway, tells her it’s because ‘you are Jewish’: copshttps://trib.al/8mPsRlF
@NvrBackDown24: Ron DeSantis on Nikki Haley’s refugee flip-flop: “She’s still suffering under the illusions – which should have been wiped away after dealing with Iraq and Afghanistan – that somehow people in that part of the world just yearn to live in American-style democracy and freedom. That is not what they’re after.” “What they seek is the destruction of the Jewish state, and that is not limited to Hamas. That is a widespread, deeply embedded belief amongst Palestinian Arabs in the Gaza Strip.” https://twitter.com/NvrBackDown24/status/1714451534782566567
@ssi_nyu: Today, we witnessed 2 NYU students violently tearing down posters of kidnapped babies, mothers, and grandmothers hanging outside of NYU Buildings. This was done in a laughing manner, exhibiting complete disregard for Jewish lives and Jewish safety…We ask NYU to offer a course of action that CONDEMNS terrorism, that there are SERIOUS consequences to antisemitic actions…
NYU student admits to ripping down Israeli hostage posters Yazmeen Deyhimi — a junior at the top university who once worked for the Anti-Defamation League —admitted to tearing apart banners… Her accomplice was doxxed as a freshman at the university who serves as a Muslim Youth Leadership Council Member at Advocates for Youth, according to her online profile, while a third student — a male wearing a dark hood — has not yet been identified… The ADL has since taken down a blog post announcing the Long Island native as one of the 12 student leaders joining the program, describing Deyhimi as “extremely passionate about fighting racial profiling and championing gender equality.”… https://nypost.com/2023/10/17/nyu-student-that-ripped-down-israeli-hostage-posters-is-former-adl-intern/
NYU student leader who said Israel bore ‘full responsibility’ for Hamas terror attack vows to ‘continue to speak out – Ryna Workman, who identifies as non-binary and uses them and they pronouns, said they’d had a “terrible” week since penning a column in the school’s newsletter accusing Israel of holding “full responsibility” for the terrorist attack that claimed at least 1,400 lives… https://nypost.com/2023/10/17/nyu-student-leader-who-blamed-israel-for-terror-attack-vows-to-continue-to-speak-out/
@ChayaRaichik10: The @ADL still has me listed in their “glossary of extremism” because I think men can’t get pregnant but they won’t list their intern who was filmed ripping down posters of missing Jews who Hamas terrorists took hostage! Really makes you think… https://t.co/JIyuw8mzGH
“We don’t defeat our enemy by giving him a platform to spread the very propaganda they hope will defeat you… You can only have freedom and liberty when others want that for you. When the other side only uses freedom with the hopes of destroying it later once they’re in charge, it’s time to shut them down… They will use our Constitution as long as they need to until they get the power, then watch them trash it.” — G. Michael Hopf, Those Who Remain: A Postapocalyptic Novel
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