OCT 25//GOLD CLOSED UP $9.00 AFTER RUSSIA ANNOUNCES NUCLEAR TESTING READINESS/SILVER CLOSED DOWN 6 CENTS TO $22.90//PLATINUM WAS UP $8.15 TO $908.90 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS DOWN ANOTHER 9.60 TO $1122.85// UPDATES ON THE ISRAELI HAMAS WAR AND ITS RAMIFICATIONS//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE INJURY UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER/SLAY NEWS/NEWS ADDICTS//EVOL NEWS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/?
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1 523 C INTERACTIVE BRO 4 880 H CITIGROUP 6 905 C ADM 3
TOTAL: 7 7 MONTH TO DATE: 10,969
JPMorgan stopped 0/7 contracts.
FOR OCT.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2023. CONTRACT: 7 NOTICES FOR 700 OZ or 0.02177 TONNES
total notices so far: 10,969 contracts for 1,096,900 oz (34.118 tonnes)
FOR OCT:
SILVER NOTICES:1 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 5,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 513 for 2,565,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $9.00//
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS AT THE SLV// NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 444.391 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY GOOD SIZED 526CONTRACTS TO 123,980 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.08 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. WE HAD MINOR SPEC SHORT COVERING EPISODE IN TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING.. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1841 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 1841 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.08). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A TINY SIZED GAIN OF 39 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE SPEC SHORTS TRIED AGAIN DESPERATELY TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALLS WITH LITTLE SUCCESS.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 310 CONTRACTS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.530 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 0 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0.000 MILLION OZ TODAY+ 4.2 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR////NEW STANDING IS THUS 2.640 MILLION OZ NORMAL SILVER DELIVERY + 4.2 EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 6.84 MILLION OZ/////SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1841CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL – REMOVED 255 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 17 days, total 17,397 contracts: OR 86.985MILLION OZ (1023 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 86.985 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 86.985 MILLION OZ (THIS IS GOING TO BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE//
RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 526 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.08 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 310 ISSUED FOR OCT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. . WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 1.532 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP:+ A NEW ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 0.000 MILLION OZ. THUS NEW TOTAL OF SILVER STANDING: 2.640 MILLION OZ+ 4.2 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 6.84 MILLION OZ//// /// WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 216 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 1841 CONTRACTS//SOME FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT A HUGE (1841) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 5,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1490 CONTRACTS TO 463,476 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED 108 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI ( 1490 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $1.30 LOSS IN PRICE//TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT. AT 16.562 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP /NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 34.221 TONNES/ + /A HUGE (AND CRIMINAL) ISSUANCE OF 4159 T.A.S. CONTRACTS /// ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR$1.30 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4781 OI CONTRACTS (14.87 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3291CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 463,476
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4781 CONTRACTS WITH 1490 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 3291 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4781CONTRACTS OR14.87TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE 4169 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3271 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (1490) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4,781 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT. AT 16.562 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 34.221 TONNES// /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND LITTLE TAS LIQUIDATION BUT SOME SPEC SHORT COVERINGS DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 4159 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
OCT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 72,128 CONTRACTS OR 7,212,800 OZ OR 224.34 TONNES IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4242 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 17TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 224.34TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 224.34/3550 x 100% TONNES 6.30% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 224.34 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 526 CONTRACTS OI TO 123,980 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A FAIR 310 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 125and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 310 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 526 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 310 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 216 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 1.08 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.08 LOSS IN PRICE …..(SOME SHORT COVERINGS)
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.87 PTS OR 0.40% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 93.80 PTS OR 0.55% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 207.57 PTS OR 0.67% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.01 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.3169 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3239 /Oil DOWN TO 83.71 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 87.98/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1490CONTRACTS TO 463,476 DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.30 ON TUESDAY. OUR SHORT SPECULATORS COVERED A BIT OF THEIR POSITIONS DURING COMEX TRADING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 3291 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 3291 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3291 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED TOTAL OF 4781 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3291LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1490 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.30//TUESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A MONSTROUS 4169 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: OCT (34.221) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 34.221 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $1.30) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF 4889TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF TUESDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. IT DID HAVE SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING WITH THE MASSIVE PRICE INCREASE.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 14.87 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (16.562 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTALS STANDING:34.221 TONNES ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $1.30. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE SPECULATORS HAVE GONE MASSIVELY SHORT WITH OUR BANKERS NET LONG. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOW HOW MUCH GOLD WILL THE BANKERS PULL FROM OUR SHORT SPECULATORS. SPECULATORS YESTERDAY ADDED TO THEIR HUGE SHORTS.
WE HAD REMOVED 108 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4781 CONTRACTS OR 478,100 OZ OR 14.87 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
10,969 notices 1,096,900 OZ 34.118TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: 0 oz
customer deposits: 0
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 customer withdrawals
total withdrawals nil oz
Adjustments; 4//dealer to customer
HSBC 5678.484 oz
ii) Int. Delaware 2604.238 oz
iii) JPMorgan 3,830.404 oz
iv) Manfra: 6,876.075 oz
total adjusted 18,989.17 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.
For the front month of OCTOBER we have an oi of 40 contracts having LOST 85 contracts. We had 85 contracts filed on Tuesday, so we gained 0 contracts or an additional 0 oz will stand for delivery at the comex in this active delivery month of October. Our short speculators have been met with physical delivery demands by the bank. The only way they can obtain gold is through these EFP’s where delivery is taken in London on a T + 2 basis. We had the commencement of gold speculator short covering last Thursday and this action by the banker longs will continue until the specs have been annihilated
NOV GAINED 22 CONTRACTS to stand at 1488
December LOST 569 contracts DOWN to 369,929 contracts.
We had 7 contracts filed for today representing 700 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 7 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,969 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (40 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 7 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,100,200 OZ OR 34.221 TONNES the number of TONNES standing in this active month of OCT.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT.contract month: No of notices filed so far (10,969) x 100 oz + (40) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (7) x 100 oz) which equals 1,100,200oz standing OR 34.221 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 34.221 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE BUT GENERALLY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH. (OCT). Somebody is after a considerable amount of gold from the comex.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 19,850,264.173 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 9,958,113.373 (309.73 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,873,161.630 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,044,862(REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 250.22 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
OCT 25
//2023// THE OCT 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
nil oz
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
No of oz served today (contracts)
1 CONTRACT(S) (5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
15 contracts (75,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
513 Contracts (2,565,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: 0
total: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 deposits customer account:
total customer deposit nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.441 million oz/270.485 million or 49.55%
Comex withdrawals 0
total: nil oz
adjustments: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 37.633 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 270.435 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2023 OI: 16 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 1 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 1 NOTICE FILED
ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS AS WE HAD A QUEUE JUMP OF NIL OZ
NOVEMBER GAINED 11 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 440
DEC. LOST 1177 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 95,782 .
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 1 for 5,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 54,711//poor
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 52,263 poor
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 513 x 5,000 oz = 2,565,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (16) and the number of notices served upon today 1 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the OCT/2023 contract month: 513 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT (16) – number of notices served upon today (1 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates to 2.640 million oz + .0 MILLION oz of exchange for risk today + 4.2 million oz prior//new totals: 6.840 million oz.
There are 37.633 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES
OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD! //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES
OCT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE 15.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD! //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
OCT 19/WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.19 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $32.55 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.43 TONNES
OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 855.45 TONNES
OCT 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 855.45 TONNES
OCT 13/WITH GOLD UP $57.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES
OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES
OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $11.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $30.60 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.81 TONNES
OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.58 TONNES
OCT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.31 TONNES
OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES
OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES
OCT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.35 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.40 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.83 TONNES
SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.60 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
SEPT 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 15/WITH GOLD UP $13.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.055 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.70 TONNES
SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.01 TONNES
SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.22 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.69 TONNES
SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.81 TONNES
SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES
SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 860.07 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.871 MILLION OZ
OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.658 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.871 MILLION OZ
OCT 19/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
OCT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.207 MILLLION OZ FROM THE SLV///// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 447.736 MILLION OZ
OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.664 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 447.730 MILLION OZ
OCT 13/WITH SILVER UP 90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.394 MILLION OZ
OCT 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.825 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.769 MILLION OZ
OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF .366 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.594 MILLION OZ
OCT 10/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 1.833 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.960 MILLION OZ
OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 0.916 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.127 MILLION OZ
OCT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.328 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.211 MILLION OZ
OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
OCT 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
OCT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 98 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
SEPT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.066 MILLION OZ
SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.492 MILLION OZ
SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449,033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 19/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.1 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.651 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.332 MILLION OZ
SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.681 MILLION OZ
SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1,009 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 11/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.373 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ
SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ
[ZH: Note that as the capital outflows soared, the price of gold also soared…]
Meanwhile, the Chinese government has been buying gold at a steady pace.
Writing at FXEmpire, analyst Vladimir Zernov said there are two dynamics driving the Chinese to sell US assets.
The first is an effort to boost the yuan.
China’s currency has struggled against the dollar of late due to softness in the Chinese economy and recently hit multi-year lows. Selling dollar-denominated assets for yuan boosts the local currency at the expense of the dollar. Zernov said, “Selling dollar-denominated assets to provide support to yuan makes perfect sense.”
The second potential reason to sell US dollar-denominated assets is for further de-dollarization. In other words, the Chinese may be trying to minimize their exposure to the US currency for economic and geopolitical reasons.
From an economic standpoint, the Chinese have to be keenly aware of the US government’s budget problem. The US ran a $1.7 trillion deficit in fiscal 2023 and has a national debt north of $33.5 trillion. Why would any country want to be exposed to that kind of risk?
Furthermore, the US has a long history of using the dollar’s position as the reserve currency as a foreign policy hammer. By minimizing dependence on the greenback, countries can blunt America’s ability to control their foreign policy decisions.
This is why many countries are trying to minimize their exposure to the dollar. Confidence in the greenback continues to erode thanks to the profligate borrowing, spending, and money creation by the US government, while America’s use of the dollar as a foreign policy weapon also makes many countries wary of relying solely on dollars.
Zernov said that if China is trying to shift some of its money away from the US-controlled, dollar-dominated global financial system, there aren’t many options other than gold.
Gold is one of the few markets that has sufficient liquidity to absorb billions of dollars of China’s funds.”
The Chinese central bank has been on a gold-buying spree. As of the end of August, the People’s Bank of China had bought gold for 10 straight months and ranked as the largest central bank gold buyer this year. The Chinese central bank has increased its official reserves by 166 tons since the beginning of the year and 217 tons since it resumed official purchases last November. As of the end of August, the People’s Bank of China officially held 2,165 tons of gold, making up 4% of its total reserves.
China has a history of adding to reserves and then going silent.
The People’s Bank of China accumulated 1,448 tons of gold between 2002 and 2019, and then reported nothing for more than two years before resuming reporting last fall.
Many speculate that the Chinese continued to add gold to its holdings off the books during those silent years.
In fact, there has always been speculation that China holds far more gold than it officially reveals. As Jim Rickards pointed out on Mises Daily back in 2015, many people speculate that China keeps several thousand tons of gold “off the books” in a separate entity called the State Administration for Foreign Exchange (SAFE).
Zernov pointed out that the Chinese tend to move slowly and it remains to be seen if the recent selloff in dollar-denominated assets translates to even more gold demand.
We will see whether the country decided to boost its gold holdings sometime in the first half of the next year. Any signs showing China decided to increase its gold reserves will be bullish for gold and may send its price toward new highs.”
END
Jim Grant: The Fed Needs Some Grounding In Financial History & Common Sense
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates again? Or is this hiking cycle over? Will it really hold rates higher longer, or will it cut in the near future? Everybody in the financial world is trying to predict the central bank’s next move.
Fed members insist they are data-dependent and will go where the numbers lead them. But in an interview on CNBC, financial analyst Jim Grant said data alone isn’t enough. You need to put the data into context.
The whole “data-dependent” canard is questionable to begin with. How long did Jerome Powell and other central bankers insist that inflation was “transitory” despite the data indicating otherwise?
When the Federal Reserve could no longer pretend price inflation was “transitory,” finally launched a war on inflation and rapidly hiked interest rates. Currently, rates are at between 5.25 and 5.5%. Many people in the mainstream think the hiking cycle is over. Paul Krugman even went so far as to say the war was over, and he declared, “We won.”
Jerome Powell delivered a speech last week at the Economic Club of New York. Grant said like every “Delphic prophet,” the Fed chair was “just ambiguous enough.”
During the speech, Powell claimed that interest rates are currently restrictive. Grant said this “isn’t born out by what the Fed likes to call the data.”
There are four or five indices of financial conditions, and four of the five say that notwithstanding this rise in rates and QT and the like, conditions in finance are generally accommodative. It makes you wonder what stringency would feel like because certainly on kind of a tactile basis it does feel as if things are rather taut.”
Grant noted that these indices were flashing “tight” when the Fed went to battle with the inflation of the 1970s.
“Everybody has gorged themselves on this debt fest that was served by the Federal Reserve,” Schiff said.
Grant put it another way, saying the long run of artificially low interest rates “introduced a fragility in the economy that 5% is now testing,” and he said we’re now seeing the characteristic consequences of very low, “money grows on trees” interest rates.
As an example, Grant pointed out the Bezos/Gates-backed trucking company Convoy that shuttered operations. In April 2022, Convoy was valued at over $3.5 billion. The Convoy CEO Dan Lewis cited contractionary credit markets as one of the reasons for the shutdown.
Grant said we’re not seeing this kind of situation far and wide, “but it is beginning to happen.”
I think as time goes on, you’ll see much more of it.”
Meanwhile, the Fed keeps insisting that it is “data dependent.” But the data is always backward-looking. And as Grant pointed out, it is also subject to revision.
One shouldn’t be utterly dependent on them [data]. Jay Powell at his summertime speech in Jackson Hole said something like, ‘The Fed is navigating by the stars under cloudy skies,” which I think is most apt.”
Data alone isn’t sufficient without a framework or a theory in which to contextualize it.
I would submit to you that a common sense approach might be helpful. For example, you can reason that if you’ve been repressing interest rates, you being the central banks collectively worldwide, but suppressing them for the better part of 10 years, and if at one point, an extreme point, some $16 trillion of securities were priced to yield less than nothing – the lowest rates in 4,000 years of recorded rate history – in those circumstances, you’d expect that the proverbial beach ball held underwater would pop up again and not just stop at the surface, but rather shoot a little bit up in the air.”
Grant concluded that one can’t be a prisoner to data.
You have to have some grounding in financial history and some grounding in common sense.”
3,Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
A good read!!
James Turk: Heading toward another U.S. government default
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-10-24 14:18Section: Daily Dispatches
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
— Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises, 1926
* * *
By James Turk Tuesday, October 24, 2023
The financial position of the federal government of the United States has been gradually deteriorating for decades. It is now rushing headlong to the financial tipping point that will cause it to default on its promises yet again. What kind of default will it be this time?
Will it be like the 1933 default when the federal government reneged on its debt and stopped the deflationary spiral in the dollar caused by the unwinding of the 1920s credit bubble instigated by banks?
Or will the federal government repay its debt by pretending to fulfill its promises with a worthless currency, repeating what occurred in the 1780s with the country’s first currency, the continental?
In my books and articles over the years I have been making the case that it will be the latter. The dollar has been on a path leading to its collapse. It is the path of least resistance for politicians and their captive central bankers to take, as evidenced by the dozens of currencies that have failed just in living memory, let alone those from monetary history buried in the fiat currency graveyard and long forgotten.
The erosion of the dollar’s purchasing power so far has been gradual, but it is accelerating. Nevertheless, there is still time for political leaders to act.
The right thing to do is simply walk away from the debt and start over. …
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.3169
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.3239
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.87 PTS OR 0.40%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 93.80 PTS OR 55%
2. Nikkei closed UP 207.57 PTS OR 0.67 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 105.72 EURO FALLS TO 1.0572 DOWN 23 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.867 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 149.91/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.8500***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 4.886*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.9640…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.211
3j Gold at $1973.40 silver at: 22.81 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 93 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 93.20//
3m oil into the 83 dollar handle for WTI and 87 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 149.91// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.845% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8959 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9472 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.864 UP 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.992 UP 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.077 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.12…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 6 BASIS PTS AT 4.6010
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures Slide, Yields Rise As Tech Giants Report Mixed Results
WEDNESDAY, OCT 25, 2023 – 08:13 AM
US equity futures are sliding – but off the lows of the session- setting up Wall Street for a lower open, with underperformance driven by Alphabet, whose shares have tumbled premarket after its cloud unit revenue disappointed. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were down -0.3% while Nasdaq futs drifted -0.5%, after Microsoft and Google delivered a mixed picture of big tech earnings, setting the stage for peers still reporting this week. The dollar is stronger for a second session tracking Treasury yields which also rose, while oil was little changed and there was a bounce for iron ore following the Chinese stimulus measures. In Europe, stocks reversed earlier losses as a 55% drop for French payments firm Worldline offsetting a gain for Deutsche Bank. Asian markets were also broadly higher on hopes that a new 1 trillion yuan in debt issuance will provide a fiscal stimulus for China’s struggling economy. Today’s macro data focus is on new home sales and mtge applications
In premarket trading, Alphabet fell as much as 7% after its cloud unit reported a smaller than expected profit; analysts flagged weakness in the cloud computing business as a concern. Microsoft, on the other hand, climbed after results in its cloud business beat expectations. Meanwhile, Texas Instruments fell 5.4% as the chipmaker forecast revenue for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate; analysts noted that weakening in the industrial end-markets broadened, while automotive strength persisted. Here are some other notable premarket movers.
CoStar fell 9.4% after the real estate data company provided a disappointing 4Q forecast. Third-quarter revenue fell shy of estimates.
Gap shares gain 2.5% after Wells Fargo upgraded the apparel retailer to overweight from equal-weight, noting that the turnaround story is gaining traction.
Microsoft shares rose 0.4% after the software giant reported first-quarter results that beat expectations. Analysts singled out strength in the company’s cloud business as especially positive.
Snap shares rose 1.1% after the social media company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and also gave an outlook that was mixed relative to consensus. Analysts were ambivalent, with some acknowledging the improvement seen in the quarter but calling out what seemed to be a “fragile” recovery.
Stride rose 13% after the online education company provided a fiscal 2024 year forecast range for revenue with a midpoint that tops estimates.
With earnings season in full swing, investors are looking for evidence on how companies are coping with high interest rates and whether consumer spending is changing because of inflation. Meta Platforms Inc., the parent company of Instagram and Facebook, is set to report later Wednesday, with Amazon.com Inc due Thursday.
“Tech earnings got off to a mixed start thanks to a focus on cloud computing, one of the big money spinners for the sector,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group. “It’s now up to Meta tonight and Amazon tomorrow to provide the kind of good news that might give stocks a reason to rally into month-end.”
European stocks were modestly in the green reversing an earlier loss of as much as -0.3% as broad gains in mining and tech shares overshadowed earnings-driven drops in luxury and retail. Kering SA slid after the Gucci owner reported a drop in sales amid a global slowdown in luxury, while home products company Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc fell after sales missed expectations. Worldline SA plunged more than 50%, the most ever, after the French payment company lowered its outlook for this year. Peer Nexi SpA slumped more than 10%. Offsetting those misses, Deutsche bank AG gained as much as 7.5% after saying it plans to accelerate payouts to shareholders as higher income from its corporate bank and deposit inflows offset weaker trading results in the third quarter. Swedish steelmaker SSAB AB asnd French software company Dassault Systemes advanced after earnings beats. Here are some of the most notable European movers:
Deutsche Bank shares jump as much as 7.3%, the most in a year, on plans to accelerate payouts to shareholders and third-quarter revenues at the top end of the forecast range
Heineken gains as much as 3.2% to the highest intraday level in more than a month after the brewer reiterated its full-year guidance and posted a slight beat on third-quarter organic beer volumes
SSAB shares rise as much as 6.9%, the most intraday since Jan. 27, after the Swedish steelmaker reported adjusted Ebitda for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate and announced a stock buyback
Billerud gains as much as 12%, the most since January 2020, after the paper and packaging company reported adjusted Ebitda and sales for the third quarter that beat estimates
Assa Abloy advances as much as 3%, the most in a month, after the Swedish lockmaker reported third-quarter adjusted operating profit that beat the average estimate
Alfa Laval climbs as much as 5% after the Swedish industrial equipment maker’s third-quarter adjusted Ebita beat the average analyst estimate.
Worldline shares fall as much as 57% after the French payments company lowered its outlook for this year and scrapped its revenue growth target for next year
Reckitt Benckiser drops as much as 4.3%, the steepest drop since July 26, after third-quarter like-for-like sales at the consumer-goods company missed estimates
Kering falls as much as 4.7% to the lowest level since March 2020 after the luxury company’s quarterly sales disappointed, and management said the 2023 Ebit margin for its Gucci brand would likely contract
Kuehne + Nagel reverses early gains to slide as much as 4.6% as lower profits and weak air freight volumes overshadow the Swiss logistics giant’s cost control and normalizing sea volumes
Akzo Nobel falls as much as 5.1% to the lowest intraday value since November 2022 after the paint maker reported third-quarter results that analysts called in-line
Nel falls as much as 9.9% after the Norwegian hydrogen technology firm’s third-quarter numbers met with a mostly negative reception from analysts
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, led by gains in Hong Kong after China strengthened its efforts to support its flagging economy and markets. The MSCI Asia Pacifc Index climbed as much as 1.2%, the most in about two weeks, with Tencent, Alibaba and Toyota the biggest boosts. Benchmarks gained in Hong Kong, mainland China, Taiwan, Japan and most other Asian nations. Meanwhile, troubled Chinese developer Country Garden Holdings Co. was deemed to be in default on a dollar bond for the first time, amid the broader property-debt crisis that’s shaken China’s economy.
The Shanghai Composite surged at the open and the Hang Seng Index jumped 2.8% before paring its gain, while a related gauge of tech stocks surged nearly 5%. Hong Kong markets outperformed as large-caps posted gains between 4-6%, and tech also felt some tailwinds from Microsoft’s earnings and guidance. Investor sentiment was bolstered after President Xi Jinping stepped up his effort to revive the world’s second-largest economy, including new deficit-busting debt issuance and an unprecedented visit to the central bank. Xi also made an unprecedented visit to the PBoC in a “sign of focus on the economy.” The moves boosted Chinese infrastructure stocks and spurred hopes for a recovery in consumption, helping lift consumer and manufacturing shares elsewhere in the region.
Australia’s ASX 200 slipped into the red after Aussie CPI topped expectations across the board, which led to hawkish revisions to some analysts’ RBA calls. Real Estate led sectoral losses, but the index was cushioned by outperformance in its Mining sector.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was supported by recent JPY weakening as export-related sectors outperformed with some potential tailwinds after Bloomberg sources yesterday suggested that the BoJ saw little need to change its “will not hesitate to take additional monetary easing measures” forward guidance.
Indian stocks retreated to the lowest level in four months, as higher U.S. treasury yields and concerns about escalation in the Israel-Hamas war drove the risk-off mood. The S&P BSE SENSEX Index fell 0.8% to 64,049.06 in the fourth day of losses, the longest streak since March. The NSE Nifty 50 Index slid similarly. The Sensex’s 14-day relative strength index, a key technical indicator, fell to 31, approaching the level of 30 that some investors consider to be the oversold threshold.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2% following a 0.3% gain yesterday. The Aussie has pared an earlier advance to trade slightly lower, having rallied on hotter-than-expected inflation data. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose as much as 0.2%, The yield on 10-year Treasuries increased 4 basis points to 4.86%.
EUR/USD overnight volatility rises by as much as 599 basis points to 12.11%, in line with the roll. This is the lowest reading on the day before an ECB decision since February 2022. It suggests traders expect no surprises
The Australian dollar erased early gains after traders priced the prospect of another interest rate hike following a hotter-than-expected inflation print. It rose as much as 0.7% to 0.6400, while the yield on policy-sensitive three-year notes climbed to their highest since 2011. Swaps traders lifted the odds of a rate hike next month to better than 80% after September quarter core inflation eased less than expected to 5.2% year-on-year
The yen was little changed Wednesday. Bank of Japan officials are likely to monitor bond yield movements until the last minute before making a decision on whether to adjust the yield curve control program at a policy meeting next week, Bloomberg reported.
In rates, treasuries cheaper across the curve with futures near session lows around 4.86% into early US session and lagging core European rates. US yields cheaper by nearly 5bp across long-end of the curve in a bear-steepening move with 5s30s spread wider by ~2.5bp vs Tuesday close; 10-year yields near cheapest levels of the day into early US session near 4.86% while 30-year yields re-test 5% level to the upside. Losses are so far led by long-end, re-steepening the curve with 5s30s paring a portion of Tuesday’s aggressive flattening move. US session includes 5-year note auction, while Bank of Canada rate decision is at 10am New York time. For Bank of Canada decision, swaps market is pricing in around 3bp of tightening, or 12% odds of a 25bp rate increase. Treasury auction cycle resumes with $52b 5-year note sale at 1pm, ahead of $38b 7-year Thursday; Tuesday’s 2-year was solid, stopping in line with WI yield at bid deadline
“Rates will likely trade within recent ranges, but we do think that the latest US data provides some support to the higher-for-longer theme,” said Evelyne Gomez-Liechti, a strategist at Mizuho International. “We wouldn’t be surprised to see 10-year Treasury yields testing the 5% handle again.”
In commodities, oil prices are slightly higher, with WTI rising 0.1% to trade near $84. Spot gold is flat. Bitcoin rises 1.6%.
In bitcoin, it was another session of gains for the cryptocurrency which is managing to hold onto the lions share of Tuesday’s pronounced upside which saw Bitcoin briefly eclipse USD 35k. As it stands, BTC is holding just above the USD 34k mark but has been below the figure at times during both the APAC and European sessions. DTCC said BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF added to the eligibility file in August 2023; appearing on the list is not indicative of the outcome for any outstanding regulatory or other approval, according to Reuters
Turning to the day ahead. In terms of data releases, we will have US September new home sales, the German October Ifo survey, the French Q3 total jobseekers and Eurozone September M3. We also have the Bank of Canada rate decision. Finally, there will be earnings releases from Meta, Thermo Fisher Scientific, T-Mobile, IBM, KLA, and Hilton.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,256.50
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 433.95
MXAP up 0.3% to 152.41
MXAPJ little changed at 476.79
Nikkei up 0.7% to 31,269.92
Topix up 0.6% to 2,254.40
Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 17,085.33
Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 2,974.11
Sensex down 0.7% to 64,127.98
Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 6,854.34
Kospi down 0.9% to 2,363.17
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.83%
Euro little changed at $1.0593
Brent Futures little changed at $88.07/bbl
Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,973.03
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 106.29
Top Overnight News
Japan’s government is considering spending around $33 billion for payouts to low-income households and an income tax cut in a package of measures to cushion the blow to households from rising living costs. RTRS
Hong Kong will offer HK$20,000 (US$2,556) handouts to parents of newborns and ease stamp duties on some home sales as the city struggles to revive an economy hit by a population exodus and slowing Chinese growth. FT
Chinese developer Country Garden Holdings Co. was deemed to be in default on a dollar bond for the first time, underscoring its fall into distress amid a broader property debt crisis that’s shaken the world’s second-biggest economy. BBG
China’s new sovereign bonds will help bolster the economic recovery, China’s vice finance minister Zhu Zhongming said on Wednesday, as the government’s stepped-up fiscal stimulus sharply raises its budget deficit. RTRS
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed the CPI rose 1.2% in the third quarter, above market forecasts of 1.1% and up from a 0.8% increase the previous quarter. RTRS
U.S. intelligence officials said Tuesday they have determined with “high confidence” that Israel was not responsible for the huge explosion at al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza City that killed scores of people last week, offering the most detailed explanation to date of an apparent accident that sparked protests throughout the Middle East after some initial reports attributed responsibility to Israel. Washington Post
The US is using Israel’s delay in launching a ground offensive in Gaza to rush defensive systems into the region amid growing fears that Iran and its proxies will escalate attacks on US forces and allied interests once the invasion begins, according to officials. FT
Deutsche Bank plans to boost payouts after higher revenue from deposits and the corporate bank offset weaker trading. The lender aims to return a substantial part of additional capital to investors as it sees further revenue growth next year, said CEO Christian Sewing. More job cuts are also in the cards. BBG
House Republicans nominated Trump ally Mike Johnson of Louisiana as their latest choice for speaker. Earlier, Tom Emmer ended his bid after Donald Trump came out against his candidacy. A broader floor vote, in which Johnson needs a simple majority, is planned for noon. BBG
A more detailed summary of overnight news courtesy of Ransquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed following a firmer lead from Wall Street as eyes turned to earnings from heavyweights Microsoft and Alphabet. Shares of the former rose 3.9% and the latter tumbled 5.9% with cloud growth in focus. ASX 200 slipped into the red after Aussie CPI topped expectations across the board, which led to hawkish revisions to some analysts’ RBA calls. Real Estate led sectoral losses, but the index was cushioned by outperformance in its Mining sector. Nikkei 225 was supported by recent JPY weakening as export-related sectors outperformed with some potential tailwinds after Bloomberg sources yesterday suggested that the BoJ saw little need to change its “will not hesitate to take additional monetary easing measures” forward guidance. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp surged at the open with sentiment in the region boosted by reports that Chinese President Xi made an unprecedented visit to the PBoC in a “sign of focus on the economy.” Hong Kong markets outperformed as large-caps posted gains between 4-6%, and tech also felt some tailwinds from Microsoft’s earnings and guidance.
Top Asian News
Hong Kong is to cut the home purchase tax by half to 7.5%, according to local press Sing Tao.
Hong Kong Leader Lee said Hong Kong is to adjust property cooling measures to revive the city’s real estate market; scrap stamp duty for selling second homes after two years; to reduce buyer’s stamp duty to 7.5% from 15%. Hong Kong Leader Lee said Hong Kong is to reduce the stamp duty of stock transactions to 0.1% from 0.13%
Chinese Vice Finance Minister said the usage of new sovereign bonds can drive up domestic demand actively and further consolidate economic recovery. Government debt level still within reasonable range despite a modest rise in budget deficit ratio this year. China will watch the macro economy and bond market closely to ensure smooth bond issuance and avoid leaving the funds idle.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1785 vs exp. 7.3213 (prev. 7.1786)
PBoC injected CNY 500bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.80% for a CNY 395bln net daily injection.
ANZ Bank economists have changed their call on RBA rates and now see a 25bps hike to 4.35% in November, according to Reuters.
Australian Treasurer Chalmers said while inflation in Australia is moderating overall, it is proving to be more persistent, according to Reuters.
Country Garden (2007 HK) default on a USD bond has been declared for the first time, via Bloomberg.
China’s cabinet has restricted 12 high risk regions from taking on new debt to finance certain infrastructure projects, according to Reuters sources. Earlier in the week, China said it is to ensure outstanding local govt debt does not exceed approved quotas, via State Media.
European bourses reside in the red after a particularly busy morning of corporate updates, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%, and with broader macro drivers somewhat lacking thus far. Sectors are being dictated by earnings with Food, Beverage & Tobacco outperforming post-Heineken, Banking torn between Deutsche Bank and Lloyds while Kering weighs on Consumer names. Elsewhere, ASM International is among the best performers in the Stoxx 600 post-results. On the data front, better-than-expected German Ifo numbers sparked fleeting upside but have been unable to offset the pressure and general tone after the region’s Flash PMIs. Stateside, futures are also in the red with the ES -0.4% & NQ -0.6% given the above and following after-market earnings from Microsoft (+3.6% pre-market) and Google (-6.8% pre-market), with the latter weighing on equity performance. Action which was exacerbated just after the European cash open following a bout of upward momentum in global yields.
Top European News
German Ifo Business Climate New (Oct) 86.9 vs. Exp. 85.9 (Prev. 85.7, Rev. 85.8); See slight growth within Germany in Q4. Services are stabilising the economy. ECB could have room to cut interest rates in H2-2024. Little reason for any more ECB hikes.
Current Conditions New (Oct) 89.2 vs. Exp. 88.5 (Prev. 88.7); Expectations New (Oct) 84.7 vs. Exp. 83.3 (Prev. 82.9, Rev. 83.1)
FX
Buck rotates 360+ degrees as DXY breaches Monday peak and eclipses best from last Friday between 106.130-500 parameters.
Aussie pops post-hot inflation metrics, but AUD/USD hits resistance bang on 0.6400 before fading.
Euro briefly boosted by above forecast Ifo survey findings, but EUR/USD tops out just above 1.0600.
Franc retreats through 0.8950 as Swiss investor confidence deteriorates markedly.
Sterling stares at 1.2100 vs resurgent Dollar and Yen faces another test of 150.00, Loonie straddles 1.3750 ahead of BoC.
Fixed Income
Bonds lose early bullish momentum irrespective of strong-to-solid demand for UK, German and Italian issuance.
Bunds retreat from 129.02 to 128.32, Gilts pare gains within a 93.08-92.63 range and T-note reverses to 106-05 from 106-18 ahead of US housing data, 5-year auction and Fed Chair Powell.
Commodities
A limited session for the complex; the mentioned Ifo release sparked only fleeting action with the crude benchmarks in relative proximity to Tuesday’s troughs and almost entirely disregarding the Energy Inventory data overnight.
Currently, WTI and Brent Dec’23 contracts are towards the mid-point of respective USD 83.16-84.01/bbl and USD 87.55-88.50/bbl parameters.
Spot gold is flat on the session as we await fresh macro drivers in a schedule dominated by earnings while base metals attempt to inch into the green but given the lack of drivers and modest USD bid have struggled to make any real headway.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.7mln (exp. +0.2mln), Gasoline -4.2mln (exp. -0.9mln), Distillate -2.3mln (exp. -1.2mln), Cushing +0.5mln.
China state planner said China is to cap crude oil processing capacity at 1bln metric tons by 2025. Refineries of 10mln metric ton capacity to account for 55% of capacity. Promote upgrading and optimisation of refineries, and accelerate the elimination of small and outdated plants, according to Reuters.
Fitch says Chinese aluminium supply is likely to tighten next year or so, which could potentially drive up average selling prices and producer profit margins.
Geopolitics – Israel-Hamas
Israeli occupation forces stormed the Burqin town, south of Jenin in the West Bank, according to Al Jazeera. Two explosions are heard on the outskirts of Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank, according to Al Jazeera. Israeli army storms the eastern area of Nablus city in the West Bank, according to Sky News Arabia citing Palestinian media
The Arab draft resolution calls for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the cancellation of the order issued by Israel to civilians to evacuate the northern Gaza Strip and move towards the south, according to Sky News Arabia.
Kuwait’s representative to the Security Council said a Palestinian state must be established on the 1967 borders, according to Sky News Arabia.
Lebanon’s representative to the Security Council said a Palestinian state must be established on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital, according to Sky News Arabia.
S&P affirmed Israel at “AA-“; downgraded outlook to negative on geopolitical risks.
Geopolitics – Other
US is reportedly using Israel’s delay in launching a ground offensive in Gaza to send defensive systems into the region amid growing fears that Iran and its proxies will escalate attacks once the ground offensive begins, according to officials cited by the FT.
Two dozen American military personnel were wounded last week in drone attacks at US bases in Iraq and Syria, according to NBC News.
Chinese President Xi said China is willing to manage differences with the US and work together to respond to global challenges, via state media, according to Reuters.
US Event Calendar
07:00: Oct. MBA Mortgage Applications -1.0%, prior -6.9%
10:00: Sept. New Home Sales MoM, est. 0.7%, prior -8.7%
10:00: Sept. New Home Sales, est. 680,000, prior 675,000
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
When 10% of the market cap of the S&P 500 reports after the closing bell, across just two companies, then that’s the only place to start this morning. Microsoft saw its shares rise +3.95% in after-market trading as revenues of $56.52 billion (+13% y/y) beat estimates of $54.54 billion and EPS came in at $2.99 (vs. $2.65 expected). The beat comes on the back of recovering cloud-computing growth with corporate customers spending more than expected. The other megacap, Alphabet, missed on their cloud revenue estimates at $8.4bn (vs. $8.6bn) with the share price falling -5.93% after hours as operating income and margins both surprised slightly to the downside. In overnight trading, S&P 500 (-0.23%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.43%) futures are dipping after yesterday saw the S&P 500 (+0.73%) climb after 5 days of losses. As we’ll see later China related risk is climbing after yesterday’s surprise fiscal package.
Prior to the late results, bonds again whipped around yesterday but in a smaller range than in previous days. The biggest move came from 2yr US yields which rose +6.5bps with 10yr and 30yrs falling -2.7 and -6.1bps respectively and thus continuing the flattening trade this week after the dramatic steepening at the end of last week post Powell’s speech late on Thursday. 2s10s finished yesterday at -29.3bps, largely reversing the post Powell steepening. We did get as flat as -11.5bps late-morning European time on Monday. So some wild swings.
Much of the discussions yesterday surrounded the transatlantic differences in the global flash PMIs with the US leading the way even if the composite came in only a point above the 50-point line that demarcates between expansion and contraction at 51.0 (50 expected and 50.2 last month). US services surprised to the upside at 50.9 (vs 49.9 expected), up from 50.1. In terms of manufacturing, the release rose to 50.0 (vs 49.5 expected) from 49.8. The release did see promising titbits on inflation, noting that the survey’s selling price gauge was now close to its pre-pandemic long-run average, perhaps more consistent with headline inflation dropping near to the Fed’s 2% target. It was noted that tensions in the Middle East did pose a risk to both growth and inflation, but in sum, the US PMI numbers remain resilient .
Markets subsequently dialled back their expectations of rate cuts in 2024. December 2024 pricing rose +10.5bp, bringing the expected rate to 4.66%, echoing the ‘higher for longer’ mantra of recent Fedspeak.
In Europe, both the ECB’s Q3 Bank Lending Survey (BLS) and the October flash PMIs delivered a concerning signal on the euro area growth outlook. The BLS results demonstrated only a marginal improvement in the last quarter’s credit conditions and again fell below the optimistic expectations of European banks from the last quarter. In fact the gap this quarter to what was expected was the largest on record.
Turning to the PMI’s, the Euro Area composite result fell beneath expectations at 46.5 (vs 47.4 expected), down from 47.2 in September. The decline was driven by both services and manufacturing, which printed below expectations at 47.8 (vs 48.6 expected) and 43.0 (vs 43.7 expected) respectively. Taken together, this reduces the probability of an additional rate hike by the ECB and raises the risk of a mild recession in the second half of 2023, alongside a greater likelihood of the ECB cuts beginning before that of the Fed. If bank lending expectations prove correct the PMIs are probably at the right level now. If they again prove too optimistic it leaves the prospect of further PMI declines and negative growth. See Peter Sidorov’s report on both releases here.
We also heard from the ECB’s President Lagarde, who was reported positing to presidents of the European Commission that the central bank’s fight against inflation was tracking well. Lagarde also stated that the euro-zone will stagnate over the next quarters, even as risks to prices become more balanced. However, coverage of the meeting highlighted that the ECB may need to act further if the delay to a fiscal overhaul necessitates it. Against this backdrop, 10yr German bund yields fell -4.6bps to 2.83%, while OATs (-3.0bps) and BTPs (-1.3bps) saw smaller rallies .
Prior to the after the bell results, the S&P 500 rose +0.73% on Tuesday, ending its five-day losing stream, with gains driven by telecoms (+5.84%), utilities (+2.57%), autos (+1.61%), and semiconductors (+1.48%%). Regarding semiconductors, after the close Texas Instruments (-4.5% in after-market trading) announced a lower-than-expected revenue target for the next quarter. This is important as the company is often watched as an industry bellwether given its broad range of customers. The FANG+ index of megacap stocks increased +1.24% ahead of the tech results .
In European equities, the STOXX 600 relatively underperformed, up a more modest +0.44%, with banks (-0.97%) the big laggard after the ECB lending survey results. The rally was led in part by defensives like utilities (+1.72%) and consumer products (+1.69%).
In the geopolitical sphere, we had comments from a couple of political leaders on the Middle East tensions. French President Macron visited Israel on Tuesday, stating that France would “share with Israel [the] challenge of having to deal with hostages” and called for an international coalition to fight Hamas. At the same time, Macron warned other Iranian-back militant groups to not wage war on new fronts. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu also released several comments, emphasising that once the conflict ceases, no one will live “under Hamas tyranny”, but warned that the war might take time. With few material developments in the conflict on the ground, concerns over oil supply continued to relax. Brent crude dropped -1.96% to $88.07/bbl, and WTI crude -2.05% to $83.74/bbl, in the third consecutive day of losses. Gold finished up +0.20% at $1,974.96/ounce.
Yesterday, Chinese President Xi announced additional fiscal support through the issuance of $137 billion in additional sovereign debt. The fiscal deficit was raised to 3.8%, well above the 3% target set in March that was generally considered a limit. It is unusual for the Chinese government to adjust its budget mid-year, clearly demonstrating support of the economy as it rises out of its trough, and to achieve a 5% growth in 2023. See our economists’ review of the stimulus package here. It was also reported that President Xi had made his first known visit to the central bank since he became president over a decade ago. The details of the meeting were not publicised but the visit is in line with the government’s efforts to strengthen the economy and stabilise markets.
Chinese stocks are driving the rally in Asia with the Hang Seng Tech index (+3.07%) emerging as the best performer across the region powered by technology stocks while the Hang Seng (+1.82%), the CSI (+0.86%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.54%) are also moving higher following the Chinese government’s stimulus plan to support the economy. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+1.30%) is extending its gains while the KOSPI (-0.45%) is trading in the red in early trade.
We have data from Australia showing that inflation quickened in the September quarter, rising +1.2% q/q (v/s +1.1% expected), up from +0.8% in the June quarter thus increasing the probability of a rate hike in November. The annual pace of inflation slowed to +5.4%, down from +6.0%, but came above forecasts of a +5.3% gain. The Australian dollar moved upwards following the CPI data advancing + 0.71% to touch a high of 0.64 against the dollar before settling at 0.638 as we go to press. Meanwhile, yields on the 10yr Australian government bonds (+4.7bps) moved higher to trade at 4.74%.
In other news from yesterday, we had the release of the Richmond Fed manufacturing index survey, which posted in line with expectations at 3, down from 5 in September, but still at a 12-month high. Business conditions as measured by the Richmond Fed fell from -5 to -15. Over the Atlantic in Europe, we had the German November GfK consumer confidence result. This slipped beneath expectations to -28.1 (vs -27.0 expected), from -26.7, as German economic weakness persists. In the UK, the composite PMI index rose a tenth to 48.6 (vs 48.5 expected) due to strength in manufacturing.
Now turning to the day ahead. In terms of data releases, we will have US September new home sales, the German October Ifo survey, the French Q3 total jobseekers and Eurozone September M3. We also have the Bank of Canada rate decision. Finally, there will be earnings releases from Meta, Thermo Fisher Scientific, T-Mobile, IBM, KLA, and Hilton.
END
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities lower despite Ifo, influenced by the heavy corporate docket; GOOG -6.8% – Newsquawk US Market Open
WEDNESDAY, OCT 25, 2023 – 06:26 AM
European bourses & US futures are in the red with the breakdown heavily influenced by a busy corporate docket
Microsoft +3.6% & Google -6.8% in the pre-market, ahead of heavyweights include Meta & Boeing
DXY eclipses Monday’s best to the modest detriment of peers, AUD gives up post-CPI gains & JPY continues to test 150.0
Core fixed benchmarks lose initial upward momentum despite strong auctions, modest pressure emanating from above-forecast German Ifo
A contained and limited session for the commodity space as the pace of geopolitical updates slows somewhat
Looking ahead, highlights include US New Home Sales, BoC Policy Announcement, Fed’s Powell, ECB’s Lagarde, BoC’s Macklem & Rogers, and Supply from the US. Earnings: Meta, Thermo Fisher, T-Mobile, IBM, ADP, Boeing.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses reside in the red after a particularly busy morning of corporate updates, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%, and with broader macro drivers somewhat lacking thus far.
Sectors are being dictated by earnings with Food, Beverage & Tobacco outperforming post-Heineken, Banking torn between Deutsche Bank and Lloyds while Kering weighs on Consumer names. Elsewhere, ASM International is among the best performers in the Stoxx 600 post-results.
On the data front, better-than-expected German Ifo numbers sparked fleeting upside but have been unable to offset the pressure and general tone after the region’s Flash PMIs.
Stateside, futures are also in the red with the ES -0.4% & NQ -0.6% given the above and following after-market earnings from Microsoft (+3.6% pre-market) and Google (-6.8% pre-market), with the latter weighing on equity performance. Action which was exacerbated just after the European cash open following a bout of upward momentum in global yields.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
Bonds lose early bullish momentum irrespective of strong-to-solid demand for UK, German and Italian issuance.
Bunds retreat from 129.02 to 128.32, Gilts pare gains within a 93.08-92.63 range and T-note reverses to 106-05 from 106-18 ahead of US housing data, 5-year auction and Fed Chair Powell.
A limited session for the complex; the mentioned Ifo release sparked only fleeting action with the crude benchmarks in relative proximity to Tuesday’s troughs and almost entirely disregarding the Energy Inventory data overnight.
Currently, WTI and Brent Dec’23 contracts are towards the mid-point of respective USD 83.16-84.01/bbl and USD 87.55-88.50/bbl parameters.
Spot gold is flat on the session as we await fresh macro drivers in a schedule dominated by earnings while base metals attempt to inch into the green but given the lack of drivers and modest USD bid have struggled to make any real headway.
US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.7mln (exp. +0.2mln), Gasoline -4.2mln (exp. -0.9mln), Distillate -2.3mln (exp. -1.2mln), Cushing +0.5mln.
China state planner said China is to cap crude oil processing capacity at 1bln metric tons by 2025. Refineries of 10mln metric ton capacity to account for 55% of capacity. Promote upgrading and optimisation of refineries, and accelerate the elimination of small and outdated plants, according to Reuters.
Fitch says Chinese aluminium supply is likely to tighten next year or so, which could potentially drive up average selling prices and producer profit margins.
German Ifo Business Climate New (Oct) 86.9 vs. Exp. 85.9 (Prev. 85.7, Rev. 85.8); See slight growth within Germany in Q4. Services are stabilising the economy. ECB could have room to cut interest rates in H2-2024. Little reason for any more ECB hikes.
Current Conditions New (Oct) 89.2 vs. Exp. 88.5 (Prev. 88.7); Expectations New (Oct) 84.7 vs. Exp. 83.3 (Prev. 82.9, Rev. 83.1)
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) – Q3 2023 (USD): EPS 1.55 (exp. 1.45), Revenue 76.69bln (exp. 75.9bln), Revenue ex-TAC 64.05bln (exp. 63.04bln). Operating income 21.34bln (exp. 21.44bln). Google Services operating income 23.94bln (exp. 22.89bln). Google Cloud operating income 266mln (exp. 433.6mln). Operating margin 28% (exp. 28.1%). Click here for the full earnings. GUIDANCE: Q3 cloud growth reflects customer optimization efforts; expects Q4 headwinds in hardware segment. CEO says customers are ‘starting to optimize spend’ on cloud computing. CFO feels “good about where we’re sitting” with cloud computing growth – Shares fell 5.9% after-market; -6.8% in the pre-market
Microsoft Corp (MSFT) – Q1 2024 (USD): EPS 2.99 (exp. 2.65), Revenue 56.5bln (exp. 54.5bln). Cloud Revenue 31.8bln (exp. 31.19bln). Productivity Revenue 18.59bln (exp. 18.29bln). Returned USD 9.1bln to holder. Dynamics products and cloud services revenue increased by 22%. Click here for the full earnings. GUIDANCE: Q2 Productivity and Business 188.8-19.1bln (exp. 18.83bln). Intelligent Cloud 25.1-25.4bln (exp. 24.94bln). More Personal Computing 16.5-16.9bln (exp. 14.52bln). Bookings growth guided about flat Y/Y. Operating Expenses 15.5-15.6bln (exp. 15.06bln). COGS 19.4-19.6bln (exp. 19.09bln) – Shares rose 3.9% after-market; +3.6% in the pre-market
Mike Johnson has won the latest GOP nomination for House Speaker, according to Bloomberg.
GEOPOLITICS
ISRAEL-HAMAS
Israeli occupation forces stormed the Burqin town, south of Jenin in the West Bank, according to Al Jazeera. Two explosions are heard on the outskirts of Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank, according to Al Jazeera. Israeli army storms the eastern area of Nablus city in the West Bank, according to Sky News Arabia citing Palestinian media
The Arab draft resolution calls for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the cancellation of the order issued by Israel to civilians to evacuate the northern Gaza Strip and move towards the south, according to Sky News Arabia.
Kuwait’s representative to the Security Council said a Palestinian state must be established on the 1967 borders, according to Sky News Arabia.
Lebanon’s representative to the Security Council said a Palestinian state must be established on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital, according to Sky News Arabia.
S&P affirmed Israel at “AA-“; downgraded outlook to negative on geopolitical risks.
OTHER
US is reportedly using Israel’s delay in launching a ground offensive in Gaza to send defensive systems into the region amid growing fears that Iran and its proxies will escalate attacks once the ground offensive begins, according to officials cited by the FT.
Two dozen American military personnel were wounded last week in drone attacks at US bases in Iraq and Syria, according to NBC News.
Chinese President Xi said China is willing to manage differences with the US and work together to respond to global challenges, via state media, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO
Another session of gains for BTC which is managing to hold onto the lions share of Tuesday’s pronounced upside which saw Bitcoin briefly eclipse USD 35k. As it stands, BTC is holding just above the USD 34k mark but has been below the figure at times during both the APAC and European sessions.
DTCC said BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF added to the eligibility file in August 2023; appearing on the list is not indicative of the outcome for any outstanding regulatory or other approval, according to Reuters
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mixed following a firmer lead from Wall Street as eyes turned to earnings from heavyweights Microsoft and Alphabet. Shares of the former rose 3.9% and the latter tumbled 5.9% with cloud growth in focus.
ASX 200 slipped into the red after Aussie CPI topped expectations across the board, which led to hawkish revisions to some analysts’ RBA calls. Real Estate led sectoral losses, but the index was cushioned by outperformance in its Mining sector.
Nikkei 225 was supported by recent JPY weakening as export-related sectors outperformed with some potential tailwinds after Bloomberg sources yesterday suggested that the BoJ saw little need to change its “will not hesitate to take additional monetary easing measures” forward guidance.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp surged at the open with sentiment in the region boosted by reports that Chinese President Xi made an unprecedented visit to the PBoC in a “sign of focus on the economy.” Hong Kong markets outperformed as large-caps posted gains between 4-6%, and tech also felt some tailwinds from Microsoft’s earnings and guidance.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Hong Kong is to cut the home purchase tax by half to 7.5%, according to local press Sing Tao.
Hong Kong Leader Lee said Hong Kong is to adjust property cooling measures to revive the city’s real estate market; scrap stamp duty for selling second homes after two years; to reduce buyer’s stamp duty to 7.5% from 15%. Hong Kong Leader Lee said Hong Kong is to reduce the stamp duty of stock transactions to 0.1% from 0.13%
Chinese Vice Finance Minister said the usage of new sovereign bonds can drive up domestic demand actively and further consolidate economic recovery. Government debt level still within reasonable range despite a modest rise in budget deficit ratio this year. China will watch the macro economy and bond market closely to ensure smooth bond issuance and avoid leaving the funds idle.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1785 vs exp. 7.3213 (prev. 7.1786)
PBoC injected CNY 500bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.80% for a CNY 395bln net daily injection.
ANZ Bank economists have changed their call on RBA rates and now see a 25bps hike to 4.35% in November, according to Reuters.
Australian Treasurer Chalmers said while inflation in Australia is moderating overall, it is proving to be more persistent, according to Reuters.
Country Garden (2007 HK) default on a USD bond has been declared for the first time, via Bloomberg.
China’s cabinet has restricted 12 high risk regions from taking on new debt to finance certain infrastructure projects, according to Reuters sources. Earlier in the week, China said it is to ensure outstanding local govt debt does not exceed approved quotas, via State Media.
DATA RECAP
Weighted Australian CPI YY 5.6% vs Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 5.2%)
Australian CPI YY (Q3) 5.4% vs. Exp. 5.3% (Prev. 6.0%); QQ (Q3) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 0.8%)
Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI YY (Q3) 5.2% vs. Exp. 5.0%
Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YY (Q3) 5.2% vs. Exp. 5.0%
Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI QQ (Q3) 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.0%
Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QQ (Q3) 1.2% vs. Exp. 1.1%
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.87 PTS OR 0.40% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 93.80 PTS OR 0.55% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 207.57 PTS OR 0.67% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.01 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.3169 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3239 /Oil DOWN TO 83.71 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 87.98/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
//NORTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
end
3 CHINA
CHINA
China’s real estate market is imploding and thus the reason for a huge fiscal stimulus from PBOC. Today a monster 1 trillion Yuan ($136 billion usa equivalent)
China Kicks Fiscal Stimulus Into Overdrive With Deficit-Busting 1 Trillion Yuan In New Debt
TUESDAY, OCT 24, 2023 – 05:50 PM
In a fiscal year when the US just raked up a $2 trillion deficit…
… despite GDP “growing” at a 5.4% pace, according to the Joe Biden Department of Goalseeking Data Higher Before It Is Revised Lower Next Month Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker, China has decided that it has enough enough of pretending that fiscal modesty and austerity are the way to go – after all there is a global superpower race going on – and despite sporting a record 300% debt to GDP…
… today China took the first official step to a powerful fiscal stimulus when China’s legislature announced it would issue 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) of special treasury bonds during the fourth quarter, expanding budgeted fiscal deficit rates to around 3.8% for the year, well above the 3% set in March which the government has generally considered a red-line “limit” for the nation.
“Relevant authorities should make preparations for the sovereign bond issuance and projects in an active and orderly manner to ensure every penny is managed and used appropriately,” said Zhao Leji, chairman of the Standing Committee.
The funds raised through government bonds will all be allocated to local regions, via the mechanism of transfer payment, according to the plan approved by the country’s top legislature on Tuesday. The finance ministry said that the funds raised will be mostly used in eight areas including reconstruction after disaster, flood prevention and management projects, and natural disaster emergency response capacity improvement projects.
The ministry also said it will timely launch the bond issuance work to ensure completion of the issuance on schedule. It will also ensure smooth transfer payment work and strengthen regulation so that the funds will be used as planned, the ministry said.
According to Bloomberg, China has rarely adjusted the budget mid-year, having previously done so in periods including 2008, in the aftermath of the Sichuan earthquake and in the wake of the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s.
While around 500 billion yuan is planned to be utilized within the year, and the remaining half trillion yuan will be used next year, this is just the start because one you start the fiscal stimulus route, you don’t go back… especially when your youth unemployment is a record high 21%… and so high it is no longer being reported by Beijing.
“The additional fiscal support approved today is the intervention we had been expecting and that was needed to prevent an abrupt fiscal tightening in China in the closing weeks of the year,” said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics Ltd.
The budget changes came during a flurry of announcements from the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, the Communist Party-controlled parliament that oversees government borrowing.
The decision to boost China’s growth comes at a time when China GDP has dipped below 5%, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker has the US economy growing at a red hot 5.4% in Q3.
The legislature on Tuesday wrapped a days-long meeting where, as noted earlier, it also ousted Li Shangfu as defense minister two months after he disappeared from public view, and stripped former foreign minister Qin Gang of his remaining role as State Councilor. Adding to the series of high-profile reshuffles, the Standing Committee named Lan Fo’an as finance minister to replace Liu Kun, a widely expected move.
Bloomberg News reported earlier this month that Chinese policymakers were considering raising this year’s budget deficit and issuing additional sovereign debt, part of a push to help the nation’s reach an official government growth goal of about 5% for 2023. Citigroup economists at the time said a move beyond the usual debt-to-GDP target “could show a greater sense of urgency of the policymakers” as they push to reach that growth goal.
Since then, stronger-than-expected data for the third quarter has led authorities to say they are “very confident” in the economy’s ability to hit that target this year, although today’s developments suggest they were not all that confident. Several challenges are likely to persist into 2024 though, including problems stemming from ongoing property market turmoil and deflationary pressures. Economists expect growth to slow to 4.5% next year.
Finally, underscoring the significance of the latest developments, on Tuesday China’s Xi, along with vice premier He Lifeng and other government officials, visited the People’s Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange in Beijing on Tuesday afternoon, Bloomberg reported earlier citing sources. The vice premier also visited the nation’s sovereign wealth fund.
His visit to the foreign exchange regulator is partly aimed at better understanding China’s $3 trillion of currency reserves, one of the people said. It comes as state leaders, regulators and top bankers are set to gather at a closed-door financial policy meeting early next week to set medium-term priorities for the $61 trillion industry and prevent risks.
While details of the visits weren’t immediately clear, Xi’s movements are closely monitored by investors for potential policy signals. The most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong has never appeared at the PBOC, according to public records, and his visit would highlight recent Communist Party rhetoric on its “centralized and unified” leadership over the financial industry. Previous such inspections were often led by the nation’s premiers or their deputies.
Therefore, Xi’s presence reinforces not only China’s willingness to kickstart the economy, but underscores the string of recent moves by the government to boost growth and stabilize markets, including purchases of stocks by the so called “National Team.”
It could potentially help ease concerns among some investors that the president had been neglecting the economy amid a purge of senior ministers and a volatile relationship with the US; on the other hand, a burst of Chinese growth is precisely what will send oil sharply over $100, and spark a fresh round of panic in both the Fed and the White House, for which a jump in gasoline prices in the election year of 2024 is just what Biden does not want.
CHINA
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
EUROPE
Total insanity!
(zerohedge)
Bloomberg Pushes Climate Doom As Reason Why You Must Eat Bugs
WEDNESDAY, OCT 25, 2023 – 02:45 AM
The US is one of the world’s largest exporters of agricultural products. Still, the corporate press continues to promote ‘climate change’ disinformation (read: here) to accelerate the normalization of insects and lab-grown meat into the food supply.
Bloomberg is the latest corporate media to use fear to sell what might be a World Economic Forum agenda of introducing bugs and lab-grown meat into the food supply:
“You may see lab-grown meat and insects on the menu in future decades, as the world grapples with challenges to food security posed by climate change and conflict.”
Bloomberg’s Keira Wright was covering Sydney’s South by South West festival earlier this month, when she said panelists were talking about lab-grown meat, edible insects, and vertical farming.
Wright continued with more climate doom in the article:
“Climate change has made weather more volatile and hotter in many parts of the world, damaging corn crops in the US, slashing wheat crop forecasts in Australia and even accelerating the spread of deadly pests in China.”
However, did anyone tell Wright, the editors, or maybe even billionaire Mike Bloomberg about the inconvenient truth of 1,600 international scientists who said in August, “There is no climate emergency.”
To counter the rogue billionaires who want to reset the food supply, move out of cities, purchase land, start a farm, or, easier, move to suburbia and buy local.
END
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/GAZA/
Quite a story!
(Jerusalem Post)
IDF kills at least 10 Hamas terrorists in attempted maritime infiltration
Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said that the terrorists used tunnels from the Gaza Strip to open waters in an attempt to infiltrate into Israel.
A barbed wire fence is seen on Zikim beach, in southern Israel near the border with Northern Gaza Strip, on April 5, 2016(photo credit: CORINNA KERN/FLASH90)
At least ten Hamas terrorists were killed in waters off the shore of the southern Gaza border town of Zikim after attempting to infiltrate into Israel, Israeli media reported on Tuesday evening.
The IDF stated on Tuesday night that a Hamas terrorist cell exited a tunnel along the coast of the Gaza Strip and attempted to infiltrate into Israel off the coast of Zikim.
The Navy, together with the Air Force and the northern brigade of the Gaza Division, struck the terrorists and stopped them from arriving at the coast.
The Air Force and Navy also struck the tunnel entrance the terrorists exited from and a weapons storage warehouse used by the terrorists.
Sirens sounded across the Gaza border towns of Zikim, Nativ Ha’asara, and Karmia and residents were told to shelter as the IDF scanned the area for infiltrating terrorist ‘frogmen,’ as Hamas said in a statement. The towns were given the all-clear a little later in the evening.
Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigades said its terror infiltrate “were able to infiltrate by sea and land” and that a gunfight was ongoing.
The IDF later said that Israeli fighter jets struck the military infrastructure the terrorists departed Gaza from.Advertisement
IDF spokesperson: Hamas terrorists used tunnels to the sea
In a Tuesday evening address, Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said that the terrorists used tunnels from the Gaza Strip to open waters in an attempt to infiltrate into Israel through the Mediterranean Sea.
According to reports, the IDF killed a handful of terrorists as they were swimming toward the beach in Zikim, while others were killed in scans of nearby areas which continued late into Monday night.
According to Israeli media, residents of Zikim received a threatening phone call from a Qatari line, warning them of the terrorists’ impending arrival to the Gaza border town. Recordings of the conversations were reportedly transferred to Israel Police.
This is a developing story.
end
USA putting additional air defense systems in Israel and with their assets in Syria and Iraq. Gold and silver rise on this news
(zerohedge)
Israel Delays Gaza Invasion (Again) As US Scrambles To Put Missile Defenses In Place
WEDNESDAY, OCT 25, 2023 – 11:28 AM
Update(1128ET): Both US and Israeli officials have told The Wall Streat Journal in a breaking major development that Israel has decided to further stall its planned ground invasion of Gaza, at the request of Washington.
Though airstrikes have been ramped up, resulting in the Palestinian death toll soaring past 6,500 – it has become clear in the last several days that Israel has been waiting in terms of a ground assault. This also as four hostages have been freed due to negotiations involving Qatari mediation with Hamas. The WSJ frames this further delay, however, as related to putting additional air defense from the US in place.
“The Pentagon is scrambling to deploy nearly a dozen air-defense systems to the region, including for U.S. troops serving in Iraq, Syria, Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, to protect them from missiles and rockets,” the report says. “U.S. officials have so far persuaded the Israelis to hold off until those pieces can be placed, as early as later this week.”
This is a sign that Washington is bracing for significant escalation to come. US Central Command (CENTCOM) yesterday revealed that last week US troops and installations in Iraq and Syria came under more than a dozen drone attacks, resulting in two dozen troop injuries, albeit described as “minor”.
Crude prices jumped, as stocks fade, on the headline portending escalation, given the Pentagon is building up yet more major military assets in the Middle East…
Also yesterday, NSC spokesman John Kirby issued unprecedented words saying that more “innocent people” are going to die in Gaza. “This is war. It is combat. It is bloody. It is ugly, and it’s going to be messy. And innocent civilians are going to be hurt going forward,” he stated in a press briefing. The US has warned Iran against its proxies attacking US forces in the region.
As the WSJ details further, even though the White House has been pressing for more humanitarian aid to get into Gaza, it remains that “the threats to the U.S. troops are of a paramount concern, U.S. officials said. U.S. military and other officials believe that American forces will be targeted by various militant groups once the incursion begins. end
Israel launches major attacks on Syrian military outposts. This is in retaliation of 2 rockets into Israel from the Golan Heights.
Syria/Israel
Israeli Attack On Southern Syria Kills 8 Troops After Hezbollah Fired Rockets On Golan Heights
WEDNESDAY, OCT 25, 2023 – 09:25 AM
There was another dangerous exchange of fire between Syria and Israel near the Golan Heights in the overnight hours, related to ongoing airstrikes on Gaza. Late Tuesday and into the overnight hours there were widespread reports that at least two rockets were fired from southern Syria, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) saying the pair of projectiles landed in open fields.
Israel then responded with a major attack on what it said were Syrian missile batteries in retaliation, which reportedly killed at least eight Syrian troops, according to international reports and state media, the latter which detailed, “Around 1:45am [22:45 GMT Tuesday], the Israeli enemy carried out an aerial aggression from the occupied Golan Heights.”
Regional media sources said the IDF response attack destroyed arms depots and a Syrian air defense radar, and the base that was struck included an infantry unit.
A prominent Syrian opposition monitoring group, the Syrian Observatory, said it wasn’t the Syrian Army that fired the salvo in the first place. It identified that “fighters loyal to Hezbollah” were responsible, having “launched rockets towards the occupied Syrian Golan.”
On Wednesday, the IDF issued rare confirmation of its strikes on southern Syria, saying “fighter jets struck military infrastructure and mortars belonging to the Syrian army in response to the launches towards Israel yesterday [Tuesday].”
According to sources cited in AFP, Syrian army and Palestinian factions have been issued fresh warnings this week by the IDF near the Golan. Leaflets were reportedly dropped in the region, which read: “Syrian commanders … bear full responsibility for operations … incoming from Syrian territory”… every attack “on the state of Israel will be met with an iron fist.”
Syrian Army and Hezbollah forces work in close coordination, and it’s not uncommon for Israel to attack Syrian government installations for something Hezbollah or an “Iran-linked” paramilitary group did.
This month, Israel has already attacked Damascus and Aleppo international airports some two or three times. In Damascus, an airport worker died in the latest instance the runway was taken out.
A new Wednesday report in SANA indicates Aleppo airport has been struck yet again:
“Nearly at 1:25 p.m. on Wednesday, the Israeli enemy carried out an air aggression from the Mediterranean Sea, west of Lattakia, targeting Aleppo International Airport, causing material damage to the airport’s runway and it’s now out of service.” A military source stated in a statement to SANA.
Israel is on a heightened state of alert not only along the Golan Heights which it occupies, but along its northern border with Lebanon as well, where dozens and towns and villages have already been evacuated as a fight gears up with Hezbollah.
end
IRANIAN PROXIES VS USA
Not good! Iran proxies fire on USA assets in Iraq and Syria injuring 24 personnel. So much for Biden’s /Blinken’s red line!
(zerohedge)
Pentagon Belatedly Reveals Two Dozen US Personnel Were Wounded In Spate Of Drone Attacks In Iraq, Syria
TUESDAY, OCT 24, 2023 – 07:10 PM
Update(1910ET): The Pentagon revealed in a late Tuesday statement that in just the past week, US and coalition forces have been attacked at least ten times in Iraq, as well as three times in Syria “via a mix of one way attack drones and rockets,” according to Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, speaking to NBC.
But the real bombshell development, which Biden’s defense officials have apparently sat on for several days, is that some 24 US personnel were wounded in the attacks. According to the NBC statement:
Two dozen American military personnel were wounded last week in a series of drone attacks at American bases in Iraq and Syria, U.S. Central Command told NBC News on Tuesday.
The Pentagon confirmed the attacks last week, but the number of U.S. casualties has not been previously disclosed.
“Twenty American personnel sustained minor injuries on Oct. 18 when at least two one-way attack drones targeted al-Tanf military base in southern Syria, CENTCOM said,” the report continues.
It appears all the injuries were deemed minor, given Gen. Ryder described that all personnel returned to duty after being evaluated and threated, and there was no significant damage to base installations. However, in Iraq, “The U.S. shot down the one-way attack drones, but the debris from one destroyed a hanger that contained small aircraft, CENTCOM said.”Illustrative: Iranian Army drone training exercise, via Reuters
The defense official said that amid the attacks there was a contractor that suffered cardiac arrest and died while sheltering in place, but the Pentagon isn’t necessarily considering the casualty to be the direct result of the assault.
The Pentagon may have concealed the information until now not only to properly account for all the instances and wounded personnel, but possibly to avoid escalating tensions by releasing the news. The Biden administration has vowed to respond ‘decisively’ if Americans in the region come under attack by Iran.
The militias operating in Iraq and Syria, believed to be behind the uptick in attacks, are widely viewed by Washington as being supported from Tehran.
* * *
Update(1550ET): It’s never a good sign when the United States says it “doesn’t want war” – at a moment a long known geopolitical flashpoint region stands on the brink. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday delivered a stern warning to Iran before a UN Security council meeting, saying the US is prepared to respond “decisively” if Tehran or its proxies launch attacks on Americans in the Middle East.
Not only does the Pentagon still have thousands of troops and assets in Iraq, long under the domination of Shia paramilitary influence, but it has up to a thousand or so troops occupying broad oil and gas regions of eastern Syria. Missile and drone attacks on Pentagon outposts in Syria and Iraq have been rising in the last days. But the real concern is on Israel’s northern border, where Hezbollah has launched multiple guided missile and anti-tank attacks on Israel border posts, including on Tuesday.
“The United States does not seek conflict with Iran,” Blinken told the UNSC “We do not want this war to widen. But if Iran or its proxies attack US personnel anywhere, make no mistake: We will defend our people, we will defend our security, swiftly and decisively.” Russia’s President Putin, who since 2015 has stationed major assets in neighboring Syria, just the day prior blamed Washington for stoking “escalation” in the Middle East by moving two US carrier strike groups into the region.
There are building fears that Iran-backed Hezbollah would launch an all-out war on Israel if the IDF moves in full force into Gaza. The only thing which apparently has stalled these plans is the slow release (so far up to four hostages) of Israeli and American captives by Hamas. Domestic political pressure is also building against the Netanyahu government, led by families who see in Qatari mediated efforts hope that loved ones will be released. Hamas has demanded that fuel be transferred into Gaza via the Rafah border, but Israel has countered that all hostages must be freed first.
“We call on all member states to send a firm, united message to any state or non-state actor that is considering opening another front in this conflict against Israel or who may target Israel’s partners, including the United States: don’t. Don’t throw fuel on the fire,” Blinken said. But the historical pattern has been that when the US moves such huge naval power into the Mediterranean and Mideast waters, it plans to do something with it.
Jordan (and others), have at the same time warned the UN assembly that there’s “real danger” of a bigger war which draws in superpowers like Russia, or even potentially China, which also has interests and military assets in the region.
“We’re all doing everything we can to stop it. There’s the threat of this expanding into the West Bank, into Lebanon, into other fronts. None of us want that, we’re all working against that,” Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi told the UNSC.
* * *
end
ISRAEL
one would expect this:
Israel Economy Hammered By War With Hamas – Central Bank Holds Rate At 4.75%
WEDNESDAY, OCT 25, 2023 – 04:15 AM
The Oct. 7 attack by Gaza-based Palestinian militant group Hamas has not only exacted a bloody toll on Israel, but now a mounting economic one as well. That reality was underscored by Tuesday statements issued by the country’s central bank, which simultaneously warned about the economic road ahead while assuring markets that the bank would take efforts to dampen the war’s impact.
The Bank of Israel said it has revised its macroeconomic forecast in light of the war, but noted the projection “is accompanied by particularly high uncertainty.” Much of that uncertainty pivots on the future scope of warfare, which has the potential to explode into a regional conflagration involving Lebanon-based Hezbollah, Iranian-backed Shiite militias, Iran and other states forces.
The size of the conflict will be driven in part by Israel’s actions. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is reportedly eager to plunge into a full-on ground invasion of densely-populated Gaza, while civilian leaders have yet to give the go-ahead. For its projection, the bank used a relatively optimistic scenario: “Under the assumption that the war will be concentrated on the southern front during the fourth quarter of the year, GDP is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2023 and by 2.8% in 2024.” The bank had previously projected 3.0% for both years.
Since the Hamas attack that killed some 1,400 people in Israel, the TA-35 Index comprising 35 large, Israel-listed companies has shed 9%, while the shekel has fallen more than 5% against the US dollar — an 8 1/2-year low. Ratings agencies like Fitch and Moody’s have signaled Israel’s credit rating could be downgraded. Source: Financial Times, LSEG data
The top-down indicators are underscored by plenty of anecdotal reporting from Israel. The Financial Times points to a brewery where production has plunged from 50,000 litres of beer a month to zero since the attacks. Only 2 of the brewery’s chain of 14 restaurants are still open, and traffic is sparse. The lunch crowd at one plunged from a typical 50 to 100 people to just five last Thursday.
Many businesses that are trying to persevere find themselves short-staffed thanks to the call-up of some 360,000 military reservists. Aside from US politicians eager to turn the grim situation into a photo opportunity, tourism has been slammed, with major airlines cancelling flights after Palestinian rockets targeted Ben Gurion Airport.
The situation creates a pick-your-poison situation for the Bank of Israel as it contemplates interest-rate policy: Cutting rates might help ease economic pain, but at the cost of further setbacks for the shekel. This week, it chose to keep Israel’s benchmark short-term borrowing rate at 4.75%, saying its goal was “stabilizing the markets and reducing uncertainty.”
The target has held at 4.75% for two consecutive meetings. This new plateau comes after 10 rate hikes that have lifted the rate from close to zero. The bank signaled the rate will drop to the 4% to 4.25% range over the next year.
“The situation remains fluid and uncertain, which means that the Bank of Israel could bring rate cuts forward should the projected negative impact on growth become more prevalent or longer-lasting than immediate FX depreciation risks,” wrote a team of Morgan Stanley analysts.
Meanwhile, Gaza’s economy, which was about 95% smaller than Israel’s before the Hamas attack, is suffering far worse consequences from the war…
end
RUSSIA
Gold rises as Russia confirms major strategic nuclear forces drill
(zerohedge)
‘Apocalypse Proof’ Assets Gold & Crypto Jump As Russia Confirms Major Strategic Nuclear Forces Drill
WEDNESDAY, OCT 25, 2023 – 12:45 PM
The supposed “Apocalypse proof” assets gold and Bitcoin jumped on a Wednesday nuclear headline that hit the wires quoting Russia’s defense minister who confirmed that Russia will initiate training on nuclear strikes.
“Russia has conducted a major exercise aimed at testing its strategic nuclear forces,” the Kremlin announced, per state media. While this doesn’t mean a nuclear test per se has happened, it does come at this ultra-sensitive moment where major powers have their fingers on the trigger related to the escalating Gaza crisis. US and Israeli defense officials have just said the Pentagon is sending additional anti-air defenses to protect American troops stationed across the Middle East.
And now this from Russia’s military: “The drills involved all three components of the nuclear triad: intercontinental ballistic missiles, nuclear-armed submarines, and strategic bombers, the statement said.”
An explanation of the drills was explained in RT as follows:
The test also aimed to evaluate the readiness of the military leadership, and its ability to command the strategic nuclear forces, the Kremlin said. All forces involved “followed through” with their tasks, it added.
In the background, the last major post-Cold War era nuclear treaty between Moscow and Washington is on the brink of collapse: New START, with the formal name of Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms.
Currently, Russia is drafting a bill to revoke its prior ratification of the treaty which banned all nuclear testing. In follow up, Russia’s foreign ministry has stipulated that the military would only resume full-on nuclear tests should the US do the same. Per Interfax, the statement added however that the Russians have “seen signs that the US is making preparations for nuclear testing in Nevada.”
Now with Russia talking nuclear tests sprinkled into the dramatically rising geopolitical tensions surrounding the Middle East, this has sent Bitcoin charging higher, as has been the trend in the last several days of “WW3-style” headlines and punditry…
Gold also gained amid the increased safe haven trend…
“Practical launches of ballistic and cruise missiles took place during the training,” the statement said.
State TV showed Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu talking to Putin about the exercise.
The same Kremlin statement said a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile had been fired from a test site in Russia’s far east, that a nuclear-powered submarine had launched a ballistic missile from the Barents Sea, and that Tu-95MS long-range bombers had test-fired air-launched cruise missiles.
And finally a note from Rabobank, which observes how easily things could go boom [emphasis ZH]…
* * *
There is really so much that can go wrong when several powerful states are playing chess against each other on three different chess boards around the globe. Let’s just hope that none of the participants in this game is on psychedelic mushrooms and tries to pull “both emergency shut off handles, because they think they are dreaming and just wanna wake up”.
END
TURKEY/ISRAEL
Erdogan on the warpath again calling Hamas liberators. The uSA must remove NATO forces from Incirlik , Turkey
(zerohedge)
Israel Outraged After Erdogan Calls Hamas ‘Liberators’, Cancels Planned Trip To Mend Ties
WEDNESDAY, OCT 25, 2023 – 12:05 PM
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan is reverting back to his hardline stance on Israel and the Palestinian question, on Wednesday in a blistering speech blasting the Jewish state’s “inhumane” war.
The most surprising moment came when he said bluntly that “Hamas is not a terror organization” but is a “liberation group” rightfully fighting to protect Palestinian lands. This is raising eyebrows, and alarm no doubt, among Turkey’s Western allies. After all, this is the head of state for NATO’s second biggest army.
“Hamas is not a terrorist organization, it is a liberation group, ‘mujahideen’ waging a battle to protect its lands and people,” he told ruling AK Party lawmakers, using an Arabic word often used to signify ‘Islamic warriors’.
Contrary to most other NATO countries as well as the European Union, Turkey has never designated Hamas as a terrorist organization.
He additionally accused Israel of “taking advantage” of Turkey’s good will, while Israeli forces ramp up airstrikes against civilians in Gaza, and announced the cancelation of a planned trip to Tel Aviv:
Erdogan said Israel had taken advantage of Turkey’s good intentions and that he wouldn’t go to Israel as previously planned due to Israel’s “inhumane” war against Hamas militants in Gaza, according to state-run news agency Anadolu.
…He said countries outside the region were “adding fuel to fire” in the name of supporting Israel.
Erdogan further called what’s happening an “intentional massacre” as the death toll in Gaza soars past 6,000 – with many of the victims being women and children.
“The perpetrators of the massacre and the destruction taking place in Gaza are those providing unlimited support for Israel,” Erdogan said. “Israel’s attacks on Gaza, for both itself and those supporting them, amount to murder and mental illness.”
Clearly, there want be any normalization effort with Israel, after years of already deteriorated relations. “I shook the hand of this man named Netanyahu one time in my life,” Erdogan said. The two had engaged in a rare handshake on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York last month.
“If he (Netanyahu) had continued with good intentions, our relations might have been different, but now unfortunately, that will not happen either because they took advantage of our good intentions,” he added.
Israel’s foreign ministry was quick to denounce Erdogan words hours after he issued them on Wednesday. Denial of Hamas terrorism is the focus of the Israeli condemnation.
“The Turkish president’s attempt to defend the terrorist organization and his inciting words will not change the horrors that the whole world has seen,” the Israeli foreign ministry said, in reference to the Oct.7 Hamas rampage across southern Israel.
END
Yes, Hamas Is Legally, Morally, & Factually A Terrorist Organization
Below is my column in the New York Post on the Associated Press guideline for reporters to avoid calling Hamas a terrorist organization. Voice of America and other media outlets have made the same decision. This is not about supporting the Palestinian cause. It is about correctly describing a group that commits terrorist attacks as a terrorist organization.
Here is the column:
Confucius once said that “the beginning of wisdom is the ability to call things by their right names.”
According to the AP, these fighters are to be called “militants” because the term “terrorist” has “become politicized.”
But there is nothing “politicized” in recognizing that Hamas intentionally targeted civilians, including mowing down unarmed participants at a peace concert.
They burned civilians alive in their homes and raped women.
They intentionally and systemically took civilian hostages, including children and the elderly.
The acts defined the actors. These were terrorist acts and those who committed them were by definition terrorists.
The International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism defines terrorism as “any … act intended to cause death or serious bodily injury to a civilian, or to any other person not taking an active part in the hostilities in a situation of armed conflict, when the purpose of such act, by its nature or context, is to intimidate a population, or to compel a government or an international organization to do or to abstain from doing any act.”
Nevertheless, the Associated Pressreportedly issued an “Israel-Hamas Topical Guide,” which noted that “terrorism and terrorist have become politicized, and often are applied inconsistently.” Thus “the AP is not using the terms for specific actions or groups, other than in direct quotations.”
This isn’t the first time the AP has made strikingly artificial language choices.
For example, AP reporters were told to avoid using the word “surge” to describe the record number of migrants crossing the border.
Likewise, when there was violence and looting in various cities after the George Floyd killing, AP told its reporters to use “milder terms” like “unrest” rather than “riots.”
Yet when it came to January 6, AP routinely referred to the riot as an “insurrection” (here, here, here).
Notably, in one article titled “Riot? Insurrection? Words Matter in Describing the Capitol Siege,” the AP noted that other mainstream media were using “riot” but also raised the possible terms “sedition” and “coup attempt.”
Similarly, as billions in property damages were occurring in various cities, Craig Melvin, an MSNBC host and co-anchor of “Today,” tweeted a “guide” that the images “on the ground” were not to be described as rioting but rather “protests.”
He noted, “This will guide our reporting in MN. While the situation on the ground in Minneapolis is fluid, and there has been violence, it is most accurate at this time to describe what is happening there as ‘protests’ — not riots.”
A CBS poll showed that 76% viewed it for what it was, a “protest gone too far.” The view that it was an actual “insurrection” was far less settled, with almost half rejecting the claim, a division breaking along partisan lines.
Obviously, people can disagree, but this would seem an obvious example where the AP would refrain from using the most loaded term of “insurrection” given the legal and factual contradictions in such usage.
The concern is that AP is showing bias in the use of such terms. Journalism schools now teach young reporters to follow an advocacy model in “leaving neutrality behind.”
Likewise, Stanford journalism professor Ted Glasser insisted that journalism needed to “free itself from this notion of objectivity to develop a sense of social justice.”
Recently, former executive editor for the Washington Post Leonard Downie Jr. and former CBS News president Andrew Heyward released their survey of leading journalists and outlets and also concluded that objectivity is now considered reactionary and even harmful.
Emilio Garcia-Ruiz, editor-in-chief at the San Francisco Chronicle, said it plainly: “Objectivity has got to go.”
Downie explained that news organizations now “believe that pursuing objectivity can lead to false balance or misleading ‘bothsidesism’ in covering stories about race, the treatment of women, LGBTQ+ rights, income inequality, climate change and many other subjects.
“And, in today’s diversifying newsrooms, they feel it negates many of their own identities, life experiences and cultural contexts, keeping them from pursuing truth in their work.”
That view was echoed by Kathleen Carroll, former executive editor at the Associated Press, who declared, “It’s objective by whose standard? … That standard seems to be White, educated, and fairly wealthy.”
In that case, NBC reporter Kelli Stavast was doing an interview with race car driver Brandon Brown after he won his first NASCAR Xfinity Series race.
During the interview, Stavast’s questions were drowned out by loud-and-clear chants of “F—k Joe Biden.” Stavast quickly declared, “You can hear the chants from the crowd, ‘Let’s go, Brandon!’ ”
“Let’s Go Brandon” has become a type of Yankee Doodling of the media by the public. It reflected an exasperation with framing and revisionism by the media in describing events.
There is no greater disconnect than describing an attack killing hundreds of unarmed civilians and taking hundreds of hostages as the acts of “militants.”
There is wisdom that comes from calling things by the right name. This was terrorism.
6,VACCINE/COVID ISSUES & GLOBAL ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
TROUBLE AHEAD!
You will see most central banks requesting a bailout
(zerohedge)
World’s Oldest Central Bank Seeking $7 Billion Bailout After Massive Bond Losses
WEDNESDAY, OCT 25, 2023 – 02:40 PM
Two weeks ago we reminded the world that thanks to soaring interest rates, which will only keep rising until the Fed figures out what “big-enough” crisis it uses to trigger QEx+1, the staggering losses on global fixed income securities which according to the IIF amount to $307 trillion – as calculated by DB’s Jim Reid – amount to a little bit over $100 trillion (and rising). And while thanks to such facilities as the BTFP much of the MTM risk has been transferred if only for the time being away from commercial banks and to the Fed, the cumulative losses at central banks are now absolutely staggering, starting with the biggest and baddest one of all, where the Fed operating loss is now $111 billion and rising with every day that the Fed pays out more in interest to banks and money market funds than it collects on its bond portfolio…
… while the cumulative MTM loss on its multi-trillion bond and MBS portfolio is now a staggering, hold on to your hats, $1+ trillion (this despite unwinding more than $1 trillion in assets on its balance sheet since the early 2022 peak).
And yet, as everyone knows by now, the Fed will never go bankrupt thanks to printing the world’s reserve currency. That’s right: the accounting treatment of record income or balance sheet losses is, well, none: they just assume that the Fed will merely print enough to plug any hole, and so the Fed is exempt from the ordinary rules of capitalism where a big enough loss will eventually put you out of business. Which is a bit of a philosophical paradox: on one hand, the Fed by default remits its profits to the Treasury, be they $1 or $1 trillion… yet when it has a net loss at the end of the year, the Treasury is not bound to bail it out, which is the sweetest form of crony capitalism ever conceived, and is by far the biggest benefit to whatever nation is the issuer of the world’s reserve currency du jour.
The same, however, can not be said for other central banks such as the Bank of England (which about a hundred years ago relinquished global reserve currency status to the US), and which one year ago had to be bailed out by the UK Treasury after the central bank suffered its first huge losses from the QE program (see “Treasury bails out BoE for first losses on QE programme“.)
The same can certainly also not be said of the world’s oldest, and arguably most experiment of central banks, Sweden’s Riksbank, which not only is the world’s oldest central bank but also the first one to implement negative rates. Now it hopes to also be the first one to surpass the BOE in getting the biggest central bank bailout in history.
In a press release/speech by Riksbank governor Erik Thedeen before the Swedish parliament’s committee on finance Tuesday, he said that the now insolvent central bank needs a capital injection of at least SEK80 billion, or just over $7 billion, representing a little over 1% of Sweden’s GDP.
That would restore its equity to at least the basic level of SEK40 billion stated in the Sveriges Riksbank Act, as per figures at the end of September 2023, to wit: “In the annual accounts for the financial year 2022, the Riksbank reported a loss of just over SEK 80 billion. As a result of the loss, the Riksbank’s equity was negative, SEK -18 billion.“
Of course, this is peanuts compared to the gargantuan losses at the Fed, but then again when is the last time anyone outside of Sweden used the krona. Some more excerpts from his speech:
“The loss and negative equity are due to the sharp rise in interest rates in 2022. This has led to a fall in the value of the bonds purchased by the Riksbank during the period 2015-2021 to maintain confidence in the inflation target, secure the credit supply during the coronavirus pandemic and contribute to good economic development,” said Mr Thedéen.
When the value of the Riksbank’s holdings of bonds decreases, it leads to unrealised losses that burden the Riksbank’s result and equity. “A negative equity does not affect the Riksbank’s ability to conduct monetary policy in the short term. But to maintain confidence in an independent monetary policy in the long term, it is necessary that the Riksbank is financially independent, that is, has sufficient equity and earnings to cover its costs,” continued Mr Thedéen.
And then, perhaps to mitigate the impact of the unprecedented bailout demand, Thedeen clarified that “the Riksbank’s asset purchases took place in a situation of international stress, when the major central banks around the world were making extensive asset purchases.”
Now while the Fed may sneer at the concept of negative equity, simply because it can literally print money to plug whatever equity hole there is which it simply calls “deferred asset” and can continue to pretend it does not have over a trillion dollars in losses on its books. But for other banks, especially those which are not privately-owned by a secretive cartel of bankers like the Fed (you didn’t know that the Fed is a privately-owned entity? you may want to read up on it)…
… and are instead wards of the state, telegraphing to the world that they are – well – insolvent, can be a problem.
As such, the Riksbank said that it will now continue to work on the petition to parliament, and when its annual report for 2023 is completed in February 2024, the Executive Board intends to make a decision on a petition that includes a request for capital injections and possibly also proposals for additional earnings capacity
“The size of the capital injection in the petition will be based on the Riksbank’s equity and reported results for 2023. The intention is to submit the petition to Parliament in March 2024,” Thedeen said.
The central bank is mandated to seek a bailout after it passed a new Riksbank Act in 2022 that require it to target capital of at least SEK40 billion; if this amount falls below SEK 20 billion the Riksbank has to go to the Swedish parliament to ask for more money. Therefore, Thedeen’s speech yesterday was the first step in the bailout process.
Commenting on the announcement, SEB analysts Amanda Sundström and Olle Holmgren said that that Thedéen’s speech implies a SKr80bn capital injection will be sought, which of course is what he said too:
The size of the capital injection is uncertain and there are risks both to the downside and upside. To reduce the risks in the balance sheet, the Riksbank has started hedging a quarter of the foreign exchange reserves. Realized profits made on FX hedging could potentially act to offset some of the need for capital injections.
There are also potentially profits from other Riksbank holdings, e.g. gold and the FX reserve in general which could limit the size of the capital injection, although this is uncertain given discrepancies between the Riksbank’s accounting principles and the Riksbank Act. Profits from the currency hedging is a downside risk for the capital injection but Mr Thedéen also indicates that equity needs to be restored to above the base level to in order to generate sufficient earnings to guarantee the Riksbank’s independence.
The Riksbank states that it is also investigating the prospects for additional earnings. The low amounts of currency in circulation in Sweden means that the Riksbank could struggle to generate sufficient earnings also with capital at the target level (SEK 60bn) and Mr Thedéen indicated that the Riksbank could petition that the bank should have the possibility for additional earnings which in comments to the press was specified as fees from the financial sector.
But while the Riksbank’s bailout request is certainly novel, it may be challenged for novelty (and size) by none other than the Bank of England, which as noted above, already demanded that the UK government bail it out to the tune of £29 billion (after suffering similar massive MTM losses on its duration exposure). That’s just the start: over the next two years, the total BOE bailout amount may rise to £90 billion according to Deutsche Bank. And then, when all other central banks that similarly do not print reserve currencies, join the fray in this “higher for longer” environment, that’s when the grassroots realization of how naked the global monetary emperor truly is, will finally dawn.
END
GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
Robert H to us;
Sure to feel safe flying?
Pilot incapacitations & deaths in Aug-Sep 2023
Sep.24, 2023 – Austrian Airlines Flight OS-188 (STR-VIE) Stuttgart to Vienna The captain became incapacitated, first officer took control of aircraft
Sep.23, 2023 – Alaska Airlines Pilot – 37 year old Captain Eric McRae died suddenly in his hotel room during layover, was to fly that morning
Sep.22, 2023 – Delta Flight DL-291 (CDG-LAX) Paris to Los Angeles – Pilot became incapacitated, was taken to cabin for care, plane diverted to Minneapolis, pilot taken to hospital
Aug.27, 2023 – Air Canada Flight AC348 (YVR-YOW) Vancouver to Ottawa, one of the pilots felt ill and became incapacitated 50 min before landing in Ottawa.
Aug.17, 2023 – IndiGo Flight (NAG-PNQ) Nagpur to Pune, India, pilot 40 year old Manoj Subramanium died after collapsing at the boarding gate, about to board.
Aug.16, 2023 – Qatar Airways Flight QR579 (DEL-DOH) Delhi to Doha, Qatar, 51 year old pilot collapsed as a passenger inflight and died, plane diverted to Dubai.
Aug.14, 2023 – LATAM Flight LA505 (MIA-SCL) Miami to Santiago, Chile – 2 hours into 8hr flight, 56 year old Captain Ivan Andaur collapsed and died in the lavatory – plane diverted to Panama City!
Aug.9, 2023 – United Airlines UAL1309 (SRQ-EWR) Sarasota to Newark, pilot had a heart attack and lost consciousness in flight
Aug.7, 2023 – TigerAIR Flight IT237 (CTS-TPE) Sapporo to Taipei, copilot had a medical emergency after landing plane in Taipei
Pilot incapacitations & deaths Jan-July 2023: July 19, 2023 – Eurowings Discover Flight 4Y-1205 (HER-FRA) Heraklion to Frankfurt, pilot incapacitated, first officer took control, landed safely
Jun.7, 2023 – Air Canada Flight ACA692 (YYZ-YYT) Toronto to St.John’s, First Officer became incapacitated, deadheading Captain assumed duties
Jun.4, 2023 – Cessna Citation N611VG flying Tennessee to Long Island, fighter jets spotted pilot slumped over in cockpit unconscious, plane crashed and all onboard died
May 11, 2023 – HiSKy Flight H4474 (DUB-KIV) Dublin to Chisinau (Moldova), 20 min after liftoff pilot became “unable to act”, plane diverted to Manchester
May 4, 2023 – British Charter TUI Airways Flight BY-1424 (NCL-LPA) Newcastle to Las Palmas Spain pilot became ill, plane diverted back to NCL.
April 21, 2023 – Easyjet Flight U2-6469 (LGW-AGA) London Gatwick to Agadir, Morocco, first offer became incapacitated, diverted to Faro, Portugal.
April 4, 2023 – United Airlines Flight 2102 (BOI-SFO) – captain was incapacitated, first officer was only one in control of the aircraft.
March 25, 2023 – TAROM Flight RO-7673 TSR-HRG diverted to Bucharest as 30 yo pilot had chest pain, then collapsed
March 22, 2023 – Southwest Flight WN6013 LAS-CMH diverted as pilot collapsed shortly after take-off, replaced by non-Southwest pilot
March 18, 2023 – Air Transat Flight TS739 FDF-YUL first officer was incapacitated about 200NM south of Montreal
March 13, 2023 – Emirates Flight EK205 MXP-JFK diverted due to pilot illness hour and a half after take-off
March 11, 2023 – United Airlines Flight UA2007 GUA-ORD diverted due to “incapacitated pilot” who had chest pains
March, 3, 2023 – Virgin Australia Flight VA-717 ADL-PER Adelaide to Perth flight was forced to make an emergency landing after First Officer suffered heart attack 30 min after departure.
Military Pilot Incapacitations: Aug.18, 2023 – US Army Aviation Center (Alabama) student pilot went into cardiac arrest behind the controls midflight (Aug.18, 2023), Instructor landed plane – pilot was dead for 18 minutes!
Recent Pilot deaths: Pilot death July 16, 2023 – 2006 Piper Meridian, flying from Westchester NY, crashed at Martha’s Vineyard Airport after pilot had medical emergency upon final approach and passenger took control of the plane and attempted a landing. Pilot, 79 year old Randolph Bonnist, died later in hospital.
Pilot death – May 2023 – 4 Singapore Airlines pilots died suddenly in May 2023
Pilot death – May 9, 2023 – United Airlines and US Air Force Pilot Lt. Col. Michael Fugett, age 46, died unexpectedly at his home
Pilot death – May 3, 2023 – Air Transat and Air Canada Pilot Eddy Vorperian, age 48, died suddenly during layover in Croatia
Pilot death – April 13, 2023 – Phil Thomas, graduate of Flight Training Pilot academy in Cadiz, Spain (FTEJerez) died suddenly.
Pilot death – March 17, 2023 – 39 year old Westjet Pilot Benjamin Paul Vige died suddenly in Calgary
Pilot death – March 11, 2023 – British Airways (CAI-LHR) pilot died of heart attack in crew hotel in Cairo before a Cairo to London flight (name & age not released)’
I/we argue yes, until you prove otherwise in this era where pilots had to be vaccinated to keep their jobs and the clear body of evidence that the mRNA vaccine drives TURBO cancers; Makis on stack
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
It is with profound sadness that we announce the death of Maurice Patenaude, at the age of 54, on September 26, 2023.
An Air Canada captain, he flew his last flight in December 2022 following a diagnosis of terminal renal cell carcinoma. He fought this dreadful illness valiantly and tenaciously, characteristic of his indomitable spirit.
A career pilot, Maurice was very much appreciated and respected by all; it was with the Canadian Air Force reserves and Air Canada that he was able to fulfill his passion, flying.
He is mourned by his new bride, his family, his friends, his aviation colleagues and all who crossed paths with him.
His decision to leave his body to medical research reflects his wish to contribute to the battle against cancer. Respectful of his wishes there will be no traditional funeral but rather a celebration of life, details to be announced. Should you wish to donate in his memory, please consider supporting cancer treatment research or Ukrainian refugees as he did.
In this period of mourning, we thank the staff of the Medical Surgical Intensive Care unit of the Toronto General and his oncologist Dr. Fallah-Rad.
Dear Mo, rest in peace, you are in our hearts forever.
His family
Pilot incapacitations & deaths in Aug-Sep 2023
Sep.24, 2023– Austrian Airlines Flight OS-188 (STR-VIE) Stuttgart to Vienna The captain became incapacitated, first officer took control of aircraft
Sep.23, 2023 – Alaska Airlines Pilot – 37 year old Captain Eric McRae died suddenly in his hotel room during layover, was to fly that morning
Sep.22, 2023 – Delta Flight DL-291 (CDG-LAX) Paris to Los Angeles – Pilot became incapacitated, was taken to cabin for care, plane diverted to Minneapolis, pilot taken to hospital
Aug.27, 2023 – Air Canada Flight AC348 (YVR-YOW) Vancouver to Ottawa, one of the pilots felt ill and became incapacitated 50 min before landing in Ottawa.
Aug.17, 2023 – IndiGo Flight (NAG-PNQ) Nagpur to Pune, India, pilot 40 year old Manoj Subramanium died after collapsing at the boarding gate, about to board.
Aug.16, 2023 – Qatar Airways Flight QR579 (DEL-DOH) Delhi to Doha, Qatar, 51 year old pilot collapsed as a passenger inflight and died, plane diverted to Dubai.
Aug.14, 2023 – LATAM Flight LA505 (MIA-SCL) Miami to Santiago, Chile – 2 hours into 8hr flight, 56 year old Captain Ivan Andaur collapsed and died in the lavatory – plane diverted to Panama City!
Aug.9, 2023 – United Airlines UAL1309 (SRQ-EWR) Sarasota to Newark, pilot had a heart attack and lost consciousness in flight
Aug.7, 2023 – TigerAIR Flight IT237 (CTS-TPE) Sapporo to Taipei, copilot had a medical emergency after landing plane in Taipei
Pilot incapacitations & deaths Jan-July 2023:
July 19, 2023 – Eurowings Discover Flight 4Y-1205 (HER-FRA) Heraklion to Frankfurt, pilot incapacitated, first officer took control, landed safely
Jun.7, 2023 – Air Canada Flight ACA692 (YYZ-YYT) Toronto to St.John’s, First Officer became incapacitated, deadheading Captain assumed duties
Jun.4, 2023 – Cessna Citation N611VG flying Tennessee to Long Island, fighter jets spotted pilot slumped over in cockpit unconscious, plane crashed and all onboard died
May 11, 2023 – HiSKy Flight H4474 (DUB-KIV) Dublin to Chisinau (Moldova), 20 min after liftoff pilot became “unable to act”, plane diverted to Manchester
May 4, 2023 – British Charter TUI Airways Flight BY-1424 (NCL-LPA) Newcastle to Las Palmas Spain pilot became ill, plane diverted back to NCL.
April 21, 2023 – Easyjet Flight U2-6469 (LGW-AGA) London Gatwick to Agadir, Morocco, first offer became incapacitated, diverted to Faro, Portugal.
April 4, 2023 – United Airlines Flight 2102 (BOI-SFO) – captain was incapacitated, first officer was only one in control of the aircraft.
March 25, 2023 – TAROM Flight RO-7673 TSR-HRG diverted to Bucharest as 30 yo pilot had chest pain, then collapsed
March 22, 2023 – Southwest Flight WN6013 LAS-CMH diverted as pilot collapsed shortly after take-off, replaced by non-Southwest pilot
March 18, 2023 – Air Transat Flight TS739 FDF-YUL first officer was incapacitated about 200NM south of Montreal
March 13, 2023 –Emirates Flight EK205 MXP-JFK diverted due to pilot illness hour and a half after take-off
March 11, 2023 –United Airlines Flight UA2007 GUA-ORD diverted due to “incapacitated pilot” who had chest pains
March, 3, 2023 – Virgin Australia Flight VA-717ADL-PER Adelaide to Perth flight was forced to make an emergency landing after First Officer suffered heart attack 30 min after departure.
Military Pilot Incapacitations:
Aug.18, 2023 – US Army Aviation Center (Alabama) student pilot went into cardiac arrest behind the controls midflight (Aug.18, 2023), Instructor landed plane – pilot was dead for 18 minutes!
Recent Pilot deaths:
Pilot death July 16, 2023 – 2006 Piper Meridian, flying from Westchester NY, crashed at Martha’s Vineyard Airport after pilot had medical emergency upon final approach and passenger took control of the plane and attempted a landing. Pilot, 79 year old Randolph Bonnist, died later in hospital.
Pilot death – March 11, 2023 – British Airways (CAI-LHR) pilot died of heart attack in crew hotel in Cairo before a Cairo to London flight (name & age not released)’
NEWS: Air Canada Pilot Maurice Patenaude It is with profound sadness that we announce the death of Maurice Patenaude, at the age of 54, on September 26, 2023. An Air Canada captain, he flew his last flight in December 2022 following a diagnosis of terminal renal cell carcinoma. He fought this dreadful illness valiantly and tenaciously, characteristic of his indomitable spirit…
The US and China have sent warships to the region threatening to drag global powers into the conflict should it go regional.’
END
EVOL NEWS
Trump’s Tax Leaker Worked For Biden Donor Who Just Won An IRS ContractREAD MORE…
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MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
“I Thought I Was Dreaming And I Just Wanna Wake Up”
WEDNESDAY, OCT 25, 2023 – 01:40 PM
By Elwin de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy at Rabobank
International diplomatic efforts to ‘control’ the situation in the Middle East are ongoing with French President Macron yesterday being the latest in a long list of world leaders and foreign ministers that have visited the region in the past weeks. Their messages are a broad mix of support for Israel and the acknowledgment of the pain its people have suffered as well as concerns over humanitarian conditions in Gaza (as the health care system has basically collapsed now), efforts to influence the future response of the Israeli forces and ideas about the future after the war. Each representative strikes a different balance in that message, but the overriding aim that they share, namely to prevent escalation of the conflict, will fall on deaf ears among those who have been directly involved and affected by the war.
It does appear, though, that – through the fog of war – the probability, and potential form, of escalation has shifted since last week. The prospect of more hostage releases after the (just) four so far and humanitarian relief efforts by the UN are often mentioned as reasons for the delay of the Israeli ground assault. But far more important it seems is the pressure that Israel’s allies, in particular the US, have been exerting. One reason – as put forward by the FT today – is to buy time for the US to build a sufficiently strong deterrent force to head off Iran or its regional proxies, which have been stepping up attacks on American targets in recent days. And if de-escalation fails, controlled escalation is to be preferred. Indeed, it was President Macron who actually hinted at the direction of where things may be moving. For he suggested that an “international coalition to fight Hamas” similar to that aimed at fighting ISIS should be set up, whilst “other Iranian-backed militant groups” are warned not to open new fronts in the war. In other words, allies may be willing to join Israel in a war against ‘terrorism’ and have its back for that, but in return Israel should ditch/adjust its plans to start a much broader and risky (ground) war against ‘terror’, potentially falling in the same trap the Americans have done several times in modern history, in particular after 9/11.
However, the ‘fog of war’ – especially in the powder keg of the Middle East – makes an assessment of the current situation, let alone predicting the future a daunting exercise. As we pointed out in previous global dailies in recent days, there is really so much that can go wrong when several powerful states are playing chess against each other on three different chess boards around the globe. Let’s just hope that none of the participants in this game is on psychedelic mushrooms and tries to pull “both emergency shut off handles, because they think they are dreaming and just wanna wake up”.
Global financial markets, are also signalling this week that risks of an uncontrolled escalation have receded somewhat. Equity markets posted modest gains yesterday, despite weak PMI surveys in Europe and Japan and the VIX index dropped more than 10% to sit below the 20 handle again. Oil prices have also fallen below $90/bbl (Brent) and the Dutch 1 month forward gas benchmark traded just below EUR 50/MWh after hitting 55 last week.
Arguably, part of the optimism stemmed from China’s announcement of fresh economic support measures to deal with the fall-out from the real-estate crisis. Yet, this was not a complete surprise as it had been flagged in recent weeks. Measures worth a sizeable 0.8% of GDP will focus on disaster relief and construction (such as water management), rather than boosting consumption.
Against this backdrop, the fall in long-term rates in recent days may not be a sign of risk aversion but rather an acknowledgment that the economic outlook has further deteriorated. That certainly holds for Europe. Preliminary PMI reports for Germany, France and the Eurozone as a whole, released yesterday, pointed at continued weakness in October. In fact, on balance the surveys were weaker than expected. The reports provided further confirmation that the services sector is converging towards the weaker manufacturing sector in terms of growth in activity rather than the other way around. The fact that activity weakened in both sectors lends support to our view that the Eurozone economy is in recession. The headline composite output index fell from 47.2 to 46.5 in October, the fifth consecutive monthly decline in business activity. S&P added that the fall in activity was the sharpest since March 2013 if one excludes the pandemic months. More importantly, the PMIs also offered some tentative evidence that the contraction in activity is starting to have an impact on the labor market. According to S&P, companies cut employment for the first time since the lockdowns of early 2021.
That the elevated interest rate environment and tightening credit conditions have become a key factor in explaining this development could already be gauged from the private sector credit impulse, which fell to -5.6% annually in August, the lowest since January 2010. Yesterday’s ECB Bank Lending Survey further cemented this view. This survey reported not only a continued tightening of credit standards in Q3, but also a continued strong decline in demand for loans across the board. Credit standards were tightened a bit more than banks had anticipated ahead of the quarter. Yet, almost all banks continue to report that they had tightened the conditions ‘somewhat’ – as opposed to ‘considerably’. The ECB has previously highlighted this distribution as an indication that the effects of policy tightening are still occurring at a measured and controlled pace. That said, there was a slight uptick in the number of respondents reporting a ‘considerable’ tightening. If this is caused by just one or a few member states, it could still be a significant development that needs to be monitored as it raises the risk of impaired transmission. We expect the ECB to be mindful that this trend doesn’t continue. Overall, the PMI and BLS reports strengthen us in our view that the ECB is done hiking, even though we continue to expect them to keep rates at these elevated levels until, at least, 2024Q3.
Meanwhile, Australian third quarter trimmed-mean CPI printed much stronger than expected at 1.2% q/q vs 1% median estimate on the Bloomberg survey. The RBA has previously said that they have a “low tolerance” for inflation taking longer than their mid-2025 estimate to return to target. Today’s number is well above the RBA’s implied forecast of 0.9% q/q and means that for inflation to be in-line with the Bank’s 2023 year-end forecast of 3.9%, Q4 would need to print at just 0.4% q/q. That seems very unlikely. As such, today’s result gives us increased conviction on our call that the RBA will resume its hiking cycle at the November meeting, lifting the cash rate by 25bps to 4.35%. It also puts the December meeting into play for a further 25bps increase just to completely ruin Christmas. More detail from our Australia and RBA watcher Ben Picton can be found here.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
end
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0572 DOWN 0.0023
USA/ YEN 149.91 UP .053 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2121 DOWN 0.0041
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3779 UP .0038 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 38 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 11.87 PTS OR 0.40%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 93.80 PTS OR 0.55%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.01% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG UP 93.80 PTS OR 0.55%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 11.87 PTS OR 0.40%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.01%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 207.57 PTS OR 0.67%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1972.20
silver:$22.77
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 106.29 UP 21 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.3171
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.3236)
TURKISH LIRA: 28.12 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.853…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 6 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.903% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 5.028 UP 7 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.081 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 24.14 POINTS or 0.33%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 12.24 PTS OR 0.08%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 21.42 PTS OR 0.31%
Spain IBEX UP 9.00 PTS OR 0.10%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 144.14 PTS OR 0.52%
WTI Oil price 83.05 12: EST
Brent Oil: 87.71 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 93.22; ROUBLE UP 0 AND 8//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.8745 UP 4 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.648 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0568 DOWN 0.0027 OR 27 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2118 DOWN .0044 or 44 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.6785% UP 10 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .857%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 150.02 UP 0.126 //YEN DOWN 13 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3734 UP .170CDN dollar DOWN 17 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 85.40
Brent OIL: 90.06
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 11 1 BASIS pts to 4.945%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 11 BASIS PTS to 5.075%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 5 PTS AT 5.125 %
USA dollar index: 106.32 UP 25 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.12 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 93.33 UP 0 AND 6/100 roubles
GOLD 1981.60
SILVER: 22.90
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 105.45 PTS OR 0.32%
NASDAQ DOWN 364.21 PTS OR 2.47%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 20.49 UP 1.52PTS (8.01)%
GLD: $183.72 UP 0.77 OR 0.42%
SLV/ $20.94 DOWN 08 OR 0.38%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Nukes & Pukes: Bullion, Black Gold, & Bitcoin Jump As Bonds & Big-Tech Dump
WEDNESDAY, OCT 25, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Delayed invasions in Gaza (in order to move more US air defense hardware into place) and Russia training for nuclear strikes were not a great background for buying stocks (even after MSFT’s earnings, and despite GOOGL’s disappointment) and ‘strong’ housing data didn’t help any dovish cases.
No safe-haven bid in bonds as the dollar, gold, and crypto rallied and oil jumped after some early weakness on the nuke sabre-rattling.
Treasuries puked hardwith yields higher across the curve with the long-end significantly underperforming (30Y +15bps, 2Y +5bps). All yields are now higher on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
30Y yield ramped back above 5.00%
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks were nukedas even a better than expected new home sales print (which means homebuilder margins must be getting monkeyhammered) did not help. Higher rates hammered the longest duration equities with Nasdaq the biggest loser. The Dow was the prettiest horse in today’s glue factory with S&P and Small Caps ending down around 1-1.5%…
Worst day for Nasdaq since Dec 2022.
As Goldman’s Chris Hussey noted, unfortunately for stocks today, the strong housing market is likely contributing to a higher rate environment. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are up 13bp to 4.95%. While yields rose much more steeply a year ago (when 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.2% from 1.4% in 2022), the latest move up in yields is coming alongside a growing assumption that yields are unlikely to return to the ultra-low post-GFC levels that markets enjoyed for over a decade leading up through the pandemic. Today’s housing report, for example, is unlikely to provide any reason for the Fed to think that it has raised rates too high. And this higher-for-longer yields environment is weighing on a host of stock valuations.
The S&P 500 broke below its 200DMA to its lowest close since May…
After yesterday’s big squeeze higher, today saw ‘most shorted’ stocks clubbed like a baby seal…
And 0-DTE Put-buyers piled on all day (as Call-Deltas remained relatively flat)…
Consumer Discretionary and Tech tankled today as Energy, Staples, and Utes rallied. Bank stocks dumped and pumped…
5 of the 7 Mega Cap tech stocks (MSFT, TSLA, META, AMZN, GOOGL) will have reported earnings by the end of this week, and we note that while the group’s valuation is well off its high, mega-cap Tech still trades at a significant premium to the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500…
VIX surged back up to a 20 handle…
Oil rallied hard off earlier spike lows to close green as Russian nuke test headlines helped…
…and those same headlines lifted gold (futures) back up towards $2000…
…and Bitcoin back to $35,000…
Source: Bloomberg
And that all happened as the Dollar Index rallied (Loonie and JPY weakness)…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we note that USA Sovereign credit risk continues to push higher…
Source: Bloomberg
It seems clear what ‘Bidenomics’ was really about after all.
EARLY MORNING TRADING/
TUCKER CARLSON
II USA DATA
Pay no attention to this garbage data. Homebuilders eating soaring mortgage costs?
(zerohedge)
New Home Sales Exploded In September, As Homebuilders Eat Soaring Mortgage Costs
WEDNESDAY, OCT 25, 2023 – 10:05 AM
Some background color before the big number – The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of home-purchase applications tumbled 2.2% WoW to 127 – the lowest level since 1995 – as mortgage rates hit 8% for the first time in 23 years.
Source: Bloomberg
With all that in mind, it was a surprise that new home sales were expected to rise 0.7% MoM (although sales did puke 8.7% MoM in August). Instead – because you just can’t make this shit up – new home sales soared 12.3% MoM in September (and August was revised up from -8.7% to -8.2%). That is the biggest MoM rise since August 2022. and smashed YoY sales up 33.9%…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the highest new home sales SAAR since Feb 2022, as existing home sales hit double-decade lows…
Source: Bloomberg
As rates soar, so homebuilders are eating all that cost!!!
Source: Bloomberg
They should, given that homebuilders can’t be filling this gap – between the current 30Y mortgage rate and the effective rates that borrowers are currently paying on their home loans – (i.e. subsidizing new home sales) forever…
Source: Bloomberg
With a lack of home-building (as builders’ incentives are crushed), we don’t think Powell will be getting his ‘affordability crisis’ under control (especially if he cuts rates drastically… because imagine what that does to prices).
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
‘Bidenomics’ Fueling Economic Pessimism Among Minorities As Incomes Fall, New Fed Data Show
A new Federal Reserve survey revealed that poverty climbed in 2022, and minorities struggled to obtain a portion of the national net worth increase during the pandemic.
The central bank’s triennial Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) found that the real (inflation-adjusted) net worth of the typical U.S. household surged by 37 percent from 2019 to 2022, driven by higher home prices, stock appreciation, and government stimulus.
But not everyone has enjoyed the same level of gains in the last few years.
Fed data showed that the typical white family’s income jumped by 1.3 percent. But black and Hispanic families recorded income declines of 1.6 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively. Moreover, wages for all Americans failed to keep up with inflation.
Despite much of the net worth gains emanating from housing, an illiquid asset, real average liquid wealth did not grow for minorities, the Fed found.
“Overall, families were wealthier in 2022 than in 2019 and appear to have had sufficient income to cover their recurring expenses, but some of their ability to cover their expenses with income may have been due to transitory factors that temporarily buoyed incomes in 2021,” the report stated.
“While families can also cover expenses using wealth, particularly for Black and Hispanic families the gains in wealth were concentrated in housing, which is somewhat illiquid and may not be as useful as liquid wealth for covering recurring expenses. Real average liquid wealth, which includes assets such as cash, checking, and savings accounts, did not grow much for Hispanic families and fell for Black families.”
The report noted that minority households benefited more from crisis-era stimulus and relief efforts, like stimulus checks, sweetened unemployment benefits, enhanced food stamps, and childcare tax credits. However, now that most of these programs have expired, families nationwide are contending with above-trend inflation that is eroding every households’ purchasing power to differing degrees.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, consumers’ purchasing power has decreased by 16 percent.
Additionally, the portion of families reporting they were uncertain about next year’s income has risen yearly since 2019 for all ethnicities and races. But this uncertainty is more concentrated among black and Hispanic families, climbing 14.2 percentage points and 10.9 percentage points respectively.
“Once again, the cross-race patterns appear consistent with transitory income sources propping up families’ income that they did not expect to continue in the future, especially for non-White families,” the SCF said.
Economic pessimism was also widespread but it “was especially strong for non-white families.” The study’s respondents were more cynical about the U.S. economy’s future in 2022 than in 2019.
“The percent of families saying the future economy will be worse skyrocketed in 2022 across all races and ethnicities,” the report said. “In fact, the share of families expecting a worse economy is at or near record highs for all races and ethnicities.”
In the end, according to data from the Census Bureau, even with the pandemic-era wealth gains, the poverty rate swelled to 12.4 percent last year.
Bidenomics
President Joe Biden touted the U.S. economy at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on Oct. 23, championing the successes that Bidenomics has enjoyed this year. President Biden spoke about the tech hubs and clean-energy jobs being planted across the country, whether in red states or in blue states.
“All this is part of my strategy to invest in America and invest in Americans,” President Biden said.
“It’s working. We’re creating good jobs in communities all across the country, including places where, for decades, factories have been shut down, hollowed out when jobs moved overseas to find cheaper employment.”
White House officials have been defending President Biden’s economic vision but their remarks have yet to persuade voters, particularly those residing in swing states, including Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
According to a Morning Consult report, about 3 in 4 swing-state voters argued that the U.S. economy is headed in the wrong direction. They reported that their financial situation was better under former President Donald Trump than President Biden.
About half (49 percent) of swing-state voters say Bidenomics is bad for the economy, and the same percentage picked former President Trump as someone they would trust more to handle the economy.
“It reveals that the president’s ‘Bidenomics’ pitch is not breaking through, as these voters are significantly more likely to trust his predecessor to handle their top voting issue,” the polling firm noted.
James Galbraith, a left-leaning economist and author, asserts that it will be tough to convince struggling Americans that the economy is doing well under the current administration.
“Whatever stories Americans are told about the strength of the economy under President Joe Biden, they are not going to be persuaded to look past the issue of their own living standards,” Mr. Galbraith wrote.
The first estimate of the third-quarter GDP growth rate will be released on Oct. 26, and estimates suggest an expansion between 4 and 5 percent. The U.S. economy added 336,000 new jobs in September, while the unemployment rate remained below 4 percent. However, real wages are down 3 percent since 2021, credit card debt is above $1 trillion, and pandemic-era savings are on the cusp of being eradicated.
Some economists purport that while the headline numbers are strong, issues underneath are starting to fester.
end
“There Could Already Be A Cell In The US Planning The Next Terrorist Attack”: Fmr. Border Commissioner
Hamas’s terror attack on Israel is having ripple effects around the world, and the porous U.S. borders are again in the spotlight.
“The same terrorists that just carried out this horrific attack in Israel—their hatred and their unwavering commitment … to do harm to the United States, is alive and well,” Mark Morgan, who served as acting commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection during the Trump administration, told The Epoch Times.
There’s a real concern that terrorists have already crossed the U.S. border, particularly within the group of more than 1.6 million illegal immigrants who evaded Border Patrol upon entry and are unknown to officials, Mr. Morgan said.
In the past 11 months, 151 people on the terror watchlist have been arrested by Border Patrol after crossing illegally, while tens of thousands of other “special interest aliens” have entered and been released, he said. “Special interest” means that they hail from countries with direct ties to state-sponsored terrorist groups, including Yemen, Iran, Lebanon, Egypt, and Pakistan.
Another terror attack inside the United States like the 2013 Boston bombing or the 2015 San Bernardino, California, mass shooting and attempted bombing, is imminent, Mr. Morgan warned.
“It’s coming. It’s coming. No one can predict, but what I will say is, there could already be a cell in the United States planning the next terrorist attack, and we would have no idea,” he said. “That’s a fair statement; that’s not hyperbolic.”
Terror concerns in the United States are escalating, especially as thousands of demonstrators have taken to the streets around the country.
FBI Director Chris Wray, in a speech to the International Association of Chiefs of Police in San Diego on Oct. 14, encouraged law enforcement officers to stay vigilant.
“You’re often the first to see the signs that someone may be mobilizing to violence,” he said.
“In this heightened environment, there’s no question we’re seeing an increase in reported threats, and we’ve got to be on the lookout, especially for lone actors who may take inspiration from recent events to commit violence of their own.”
Meanwhile, the FBI issued a statement on Oct. 9, saying that it doesn’t have “specific and credible intelligence indicating a threat to the United States stemming from the Hamas attacks.”
The lack of intelligence may not mean a lot, because the attack on Israel showed a “colossal intelligence failure,” Mr. Morgan, who also served as an FBI agent for 20 years, said.
He said that a terror event such as Hamas’s attack that killed 1,400 Israelis, including children, on Oct. 7 can serve as a trigger event.
“When you have this deep-rooted, irrational ideology, to be inspired to move to radicalization, then action can be very quick. Generally, it takes an event—and we have that now.”
Hamas sympathizers brandishing Palestinian flags stood outside of the White House on Oct. 14 chanting “Free Palestine.” Some demonstrators wore head and face coverings commonly associated with jihadist groups.
National security lawyer and regional analyst Irina Tsukerman said much the same about the threat that Hamas agents pose to the United States.
“There is significant pro-Hamas support in the United States already, both among leftist radicals and apologists in academia, and Palestinian activists and their allies, such as the crowds rallying with Hamas in various big cities around the United States in the past few days,” she told The Epoch Times.
Ms. Tsukerman said she disagrees with the FBI’s Oct. 9 statement that suggests there’s no current specific threat to the United States.
“The FBI is wrong. Khaled Meshaal called for his supporters to attack Western and other targets. … That could well include the United States or at least Jewish and Israeli targets in the United States,” she said.
On Oct. 8, an Iran proxy terrorist group called Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada (KSS) warned the United States against getting involved in the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
“Palestine is not Ukraine,” the terror group stated.
“Any direct American entrance into the conflict for the crumbling entity [Israel] will make all American positions in the region legitimate targets.”
The fanatical group is one of many through which Iran pushes its political agenda in the region. Another one of these is Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is reportedly holding an Israeli captive amid the newest conflict with Hamas.
Like Hamas and KSS, Hezbollah is an Iranian-funded Islamic terrorist group. In 2020, the U.S. State Department stated that Iran provides $100 million in annual aid to Hamas and another $700 million to Hezbollah.
However, while most of these organizations’ actions are limited to the Middle East, Hezbollah has terrorist cells operating in the Americas.
Wave of Mobilization
In Latin America, Hezbollah has quietly been putting down roots for decades, and the U.S. government is aware of it.
“It is important to note that the relationship Hezbollah has developed with criminal and terrorist groups in Latin America has escalated from one of mutual accommodation and benefit in the spheres of money laundering, contraband, and financing to more direct and deadly forms of collaboration,” a 2012 U.S. Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence report noted.
On Sept. 12, the U.S. Department of Treasury enacted sanctions on three people associated with Hezbollah’s illicit financial activities in Latin America.
After U.S. officials backed Israel’s assertion of innocence in the blast, major news outlets that relied on Hamas’s version of events—like the New York Times—have been forced to issue corrections, albeit quietly and begrudgingly.
Those waiting for a heartfelt apology may be disappointed, as according to investigative journalist and author Lee Smith, the media has for years been complicit in a propaganda machine designed to “disorient and demoralize” the American public.
“For most people, actually, on the right, their first exposure to real disinformation, real information operations has been watching what’s going on in the Middle East since the beginning of the 21st Century,” Mr. Smith said on EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders” on Oct. 20.
From the war in Iraq to the 2006 Lebanon War and now the Israel-Hamas War, Mr. Smith noted that information warfare has been a key tactic utilized by militant regimes in the Middle East to break down support for their enemies.
However, he contended that it was the Obama administration that purposefully created a media echo chamber to sell its nuclear deal with Iran to a dubious American public. And that communications infrastructure, he charged, is now being used to spread disinformation about the Israel-Hamas War.
Echoes of the Past
Mr. Smith noted that when the Obama administration struck its controversial deal with Iran in 2015, most Americans were against it.
“We know that they took our diplomats hostage in 1979,” he said. “We know that they killed Americans in Iraq. We know that they killed Americans in Lebanon back in 1982, and they’re responsible for almost all of the American deaths in Iraq. … So, most Americans are looking at this, the Iran deal, saying, ‘This looks nuts.’”
At the time, the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” was promoted by the administration as a means of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. But according to Mr. Smith, the true purpose of the deal was just the opposite.
“It was never designed to stop Iran from getting the bomb,” he contended. “It was designed to get Iran the bomb and legalize it in the eyes of the international community.”
To convince the public otherwise, Mr. Smith said the administration relied heavily on friendly journalists, think tanks, and so-called “experts” to regurgitate White House talking points.
“Barack Obama had behind him the strength of the media—again, that’s the communications infrastructure that was built back then. And it’s used to sell everything now, from Russiagate to the Jan. 6 insurrection.”
Revisiting the Iran Deal
Mr. Smith said the message that the echo chamber is now selling is that Israel should not be allowed to defend itself against what he called a “pathocratic” regime.
“We’re not talking about an oligarchy; we’re not talking about a democracy, a tyranny, a monarchy,” he said.
“We’re talking about rule of the pathologically evil, or rule of the pathological. And that’s what we’re seeing with Hamas and Hezbollah.”
Hamas’s use of human shields, he noted, “is abnormal—this is sick, this is pathological.” And while some have called for a ceasefire, that course, he said, would ultimately strip Israel of its right to defend itself from such a regime.
“I’m not saying that everyone knows the upshot of that argument,” he said. “But that’s where that argument goes—that Israel cannot protect its own.”
The Biden administration, for its part, has made an effort to demonstrate its support for Israel militarily, sending ammunition, aircraft, and aircraft carriers following the attack.
President Joe Biden also joined with several world leaders on Oct. 23 to reiterate his support for Israel and the nation’s right to defend itself.
However, Mr. Smith noted that the administration has downplayed the possibility of Iran’s involvement in the assault despite reports that Iranian security officials helped to plan it all.
“We have records of all sorts of meetings between high-ranking Iranian officials, and the leader of Hamas—Ismail Haniyeh—and the leader of Hezbollah—Hassan Nasrallah—training operatives specifically for this assault with hang gliders. It’s very sick,” he said.
“And the reason that the Biden administration is concealing this is because the Biden administration still wants to restore the nuclear deal with Iran,” he stated.
When former President Donald Trump took office, he withdrew from the nuclear deal, shutting out Iran and its proxies in favor of bolstering relations with existing Middle Eastern allies through the Abraham Accords.
The Biden administration, Mr. Smith contended, has undermined that agreement in hopes of “collapsing” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and bringing Iran back to the table.
And those goals, he said, beg the question of why.
“Why does American and European leadership want to legalize the nuclear weapons program of a pathocratic state? We know what they are. … Why are they normalizing regimes like Hamas’s, Hezbollah’s, and like the Islamic Republic of Iran when these are sick and insane polities?”
Deteriorating Trust
While the mainstream media echo chamber may still be active, for many, its effectiveness has waned.
From the COVID-19 pandemic to concerns about election integrity and the weaponization of the federal government, many Americans no longer trust the sources they once believed credible.
And for Mr. Smith, that deep distrust presents another concern that must be addressed.
“The people who have no faith in the information they’re getting and are willing to believe everything have been made extremely, extremely vulnerable,” he said.
“And it’s a very bad sign for our country, again, because it’s an indication that people feel that they have nothing to hold on [to]. They believe] everything about our country, everything about our reality is fake,” he said. “But of course, that’s not true.”
To help those people discern truth from fiction, said Mr. Smith, society must get back to “looking at the true things and explaining the true things as they happen”—without the added spin.
end
Longtime DeSantis ally flips to Trump over Jewish issues
(zerohedge)
“Trump Has Never Let Us Down”: Longtime DeSantis Ally Flips On Ron Over Jewish Issues
TUESDAY, OCT 24, 2023 – 09:05 PM
Florida state Rep. Randy Fine (R), a longtime ally of Governor Ron DeSantis, has flipped his support to former President Donald Trumpfor the 2020 US election, citing Trump’s record on Israel, and slamming DeSantis for ‘doing nothing’ about Nazis who have allegedly invaded Florida, according to The Floridian.
“Today, I am endorsing @realDonaldTrump,” Fine wrote on X. “The past 2 weeks have made me realize our choice as Jews is simple. We can vote for the Gov who says the right things, or we can vote for the President who actually does them. When it comes to action, Trump has never let us down,” he continued.
In a Monday op-ed in the Washington Timeswith the headline: “Donald Trump has never let us down,” Fine writes that he was “jumped by a Nazi in Florida. On video. Two weeks ago.”
He goes on to say that DeSantis has “said almost nothing” after Nazis began showing up in public in Florida, assaulting a Rabbi, hanging banners which read “Gas the Jews” over freeway overpasses, and “beat up a Jew.”
Our world changed forever on October 7. The Holocaust did not end in 1945; it just went into hibernation. Radical Islam is the spiritual successor to the Nazis.
Words won’t save us.
Only actions will.
Donald Trump didn’t just talk about moving the Embassy. He did it.
Donald Trump didn’t just talk about Israeli security. He green-lit them annexing the Golan.
Donald Trump didn’t just talk about peace. He signed the Abraham Accords. He deserved a Nobel Peace Prize for it. -Randy Fine
Fine also spoke with The Floridian about the Hamas attacks in Israel. He called for the expulsion of the pro-Palestinian “Squad” in Congress.
“They are more focused on these Arabs in Gaza than they are on American hostages that are held there. That is treason,” he continued.
Fellow Florida State Representative Joe Gruters (R), who had previously accused Gov. DeSantis of intentionally line-item vetoing Sarasota County projects for his Trump endorsement, replied to Fine’s tweet, “Great decision, welcome to the team. @realDonaldTrump is who America needs to lead us now more than ever.”
Fine closes his op-ed with: “There is no choice – we must return Donald Trump to the Oval Office. For Israel. For Jews. For America. And for the World.”
END
How did the following happen? Two answers!
1. Afghanistan
2. Ukraine
(Ozimek/EpochTimes)
“Unconscionable”: Republicans Press Pentagon Over American-Made Weapons In Hamas’s Hands
Citing reports that advanced U.S.-made firearms have ended up in the possession of the Hamas terrorist group in Gaza, several House Oversight Committee Republicans are demanding answers from the Pentagon about what’s being done to make sure American-made weapons don’t end up in the wrong hands.
Mr. Comer and Ms. Greene cited a series of media reports indicating that American-made weapons were being diverted and ending up in the hands of terrorists.
One source of these U.S.-made weapons is reportedly the roughly $7 billion stockpile left behind in the botched Afghanistan withdrawal. Another is related to the arms that the United States is providing to Ukraine amid its war with Russia but that are being diverted to the Middle East by various actors, including gun-smuggling criminal groups.
“The potential possession of U.S. weapons by terrorists is alarming in light of the terrorist group’s recent horrific attack on Israel,” the pair of lawmakers wrote, referring to the Oct. 7 assault by Hamas operatives that killed about 1,500 Israelis, mostly civilians—many of them in barbaric fashion.
In their letter, they demanded a staff briefing from the Pentagon by the end of October on what procedures the Department of Defense (DOD) has in place “for preventing, addressing, and mitigating weapon diversion abroad.”
In their letter, Mr. Comer and Ms. Greene cited a number of media reports indicating that American-made weapons were ending up in the hands of those who may wish to use them to harm the United States and its allies.
One of these is a June 15 report by Newsweek that cites a high-ranking Israel Defense Forces (IDF) commander as saying that the Israeli military was concerned that U.S.-made weapons provided to Ukraine were being diverted and ending up in the hands of Israel’s enemies in the Middle East.
“We are very worried that some of these capabilities are going to fall to Hezbollah and Hamas’ hands,” the IDF commander told the publication.
Since the Russia–Ukraine conflict erupted in February 2022, the United States has sent more than $46 billion in military assistance to Kyiv, sparking worries that some of that massive flow of arms was being diverted and ending up in other regions.
While a report in March from the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime found that “there is currently no substantial outflow of weapons from the Ukrainian conflict zone,” it warned of the prospect of serious proliferation.
The report’s authors warned in a statement that when the war ends, “Ukraine’s battlefields could and will become the new arsenal of anarchy, arming everyone from insurgents in Africa to gangsters in the streets of Europe.”
While it’s impossible to tell without further investigation where the weapons are coming from, it’s been alleged that some U.S.-made weapons are finding their way to Gaza and into the hands of Hamas.
In their letter, the GOP lawmakers said that “recently released photos show Hamas terrorists allegedly holding what appear to be H4A1 Carbines,” a type of weapon that they point out was specially designed for U.S. Special Operations Forces.
Taliban Seize $7 Billion Worth of US Weapons and Equipment
After U.S. forces withdrew from Afghanistan in the summer of 2021, they left behind billions of dollars of American-made weapons and equipment.
A Pentagon watchdog reported in August 2022 that “U.S.-funded equipment valued at $7.12 billion was in the inventory of the former Afghan government when it collapsed, much of which has since been seized by the Taliban.”
The report, which was confirmed by the DOD, indicated that the equipment that had fallen into Taliban hands included military aircraft, ground vehicles, weapons, and other military equipment.
The items that ended up in Taliban hands included large equipment like Black Hawk helicopters and Humvees, as well as small but sophisticated arms like M16 assault rifles and M4 carbines.
“We have already seen Taliban fighters armed with U.S.-made weapons they seized from the Afghan forces. This poses a significant threat to the United States and our allies,” Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told Reuters in an email last year.
Lt. Col. Emron Musavi, an Indian army spokesperson, told CNBC in an email last year that weapons left behind by U.S. forces during the withdrawal from Afghanistan were making their way into other conflict zones, including in India-controlled Kashmir, which some terror groups are trying to annex for Pakistan.
The letter from Mr. Comer and Ms. Greene is not the first time Republicans have pressed the Pentagon on U.S.-made weapons falling into the wrong hands.
Shortly after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, several Republican senators demanded the DOD provide full accounting over the weapons and equipment that were captured by the Taliban.
“It is unconscionable that high-tech military equipment paid for by U.S. taxpayers has fallen into the hands of the Taliban and their terrorist allies,” the Republicans added.
“Securing U.S. assets should have been among the top priorities for the U.S. Department of Defense prior to announcing the withdrawal from Afghanistan.”
END
People going to Twitter to get the news on the Israeli Hamas war rather than NBC to the tune of 14 to 1
(zerohedge)
Jealous? NBC Knocks 7 ‘Influential Accounts’ On X Over Israel-Hamas Coverage
TUESDAY, OCT 24, 2023 – 07:45 PM
NBC News ‘gotcha’ reporter Brandy Zadrozny’s most recent screed can only be interpreted as sheer jealousy, after the outlet reports that just seven influential X accounts have ‘dominated the flow of news’ surrounding the Israel-Hamas war and have been ‘easily outpacing established mainstream news outlets.’
Citing a Friday report by the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public, as well as a ‘separate analysis’ by the partisan hacks at NewsGuard, Zadrozny writes that during a three-day period starting with the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the most popular posts regarding the crisis revealed that news on the platform is “faster, more disorienting, and potentially more shaped by Musk himself.”
We should mention that the report doesn’t refute anything posted by said ‘influential’ accounts. The entire report is simply bitching over their popularity, and the alleged (yet undefined) “change for the worse” on the platform.
The new work adds data to a swell of recent anecdotal accounts from researchers, academics and journalists who have noted a change for the worse in the way news and information moves and is incentivized on Twitter over the last year, especially since the start of the Israel-Hamas crisis. A separate analysis published Thursday by NewsGuard, a nonpartisan company that tracks false narratives online, found verified accounts were responsible for nearly three-fourths of the most viral misinformation about the Israel-Hamas war on Twitter. -NBC News
“At its core what we’re looking at here is a different vision of what news is,” said Mike Caulfield, a research scientist at the University of Washington and lead author of the new report. “It’s fast, it’s unvetted, and it’s very often unsourced. And there’s every indication that the shift is not accidental and that it’s part of a vision of what news is going to be on X.”
“The people who are engaged, they probably buy into this vision, but we have doubts that it serves the public well.”
Again, zero examples.
Caulfield and crew have branded the accounts “new elites” – who have exercised “disproportionate power and influence” over the Israel / Hamas news. Those accounts include:
Visegrád 24, a news aggregator run by a right-wing Polish social media marketing agency; Mario Nawfal, a Twitter celebrity known for hosting live audio chats focused on cryptocurrency who was the focus of an NBC News investigation; @spectatorindex, an account self-described as “News, media and data from around the globe,”reportedly operated by an Australian-Muslim medical doctor; @CollinRugg, a co-founder of the conservative site Trending Politics; and @CensoredMen, a 10-month-old account that before pivoting to the Israel-Hamas war primarily posted in support of the misogynist internet influencer Andrew Tate.
Of course, here’s what it really boils down to:
“Tweets about the Israel-Hamas war from these accounts outperformed popular news accounts belonging to CNN, The New York Times, the BBC and Reuters, despite having far fewer followers, according to the research (NBC News was not included),” Zadrozny writes, adding that researchers found that tweets about the Israel-Hamas war from ‘approved’ news sources garnered 112 million views over 298 tweets, while the seven ‘influential’ accounts drew 1.6 billion views across 1,834 tweets.
end
Mike Johnson Elected House Speaker
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, OCT 25, 2023 – 01:58 PM
Update (1400ET): After three failed nominees, Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) has been elected the new speaker of the House, after receiving the necessary 217 votes.
Johnson, 51, received 220 votes, vs. Democratic nominee Hakeem Jeffries (NY).
Johnson was elected to Congress in 2016, making him the most junior lawmaker in decades to become speaker. He may also be the most conservative. As an evangelical Christian, Johnson is the former chairman of the Republican Study Committee, and has sponsored legislation which effectively bars the discussion of sexual orientation or gender identity for those below the age of 10 at any school which receives federal funds.
Johnson also served on former President Trump’s impeachment defense team.
In the coming weeks, Johnson faces several challenges – including a mid-November deadline to pass a measure to fund the government and avert a shutdown yet again. He’ll also need to navigate the House through the Biden administration’s $105 billion funding request for Israel, Ukraine and the southern US border.
Johnson has notably opposed more funding for Ukraine.
* * *
Update (1313ET): Watch live:
* * *
The House is expected to vote Wednesday on whether to elect Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) as its speaker, after he became the fourth Republican pick for the job since Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was ousted three weeks ago.
On Wednesday, McCarthy threw his support behind Johnson, calling him “a friend, fighter, and principled conservative” who “has my full support.”
Yet, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) said on CNN that Johnson “appears to be an extreme-right wing ideologue,” citing Johnson’s previous positions on abortion, Social Security, and the 2020 election.
“Those are extreme views,” he said, adding that Democrats “would have been open to” empowering Rep. Patrick T. McHenry (R-NC), the speaker pro tempore, as a bipartisan olive branch to reopen the House and avert the election of a ‘far-right speaker.’
Until the GOP gets it act together, the House is effectively frozen from conducting legislative business outside of holding hearings on bills that can’t be introduced on the House floor.
This means we’re once again gliding into another deadline for a government shutdown – this time slated for Nov. 17. The House also wants to send supplemental assistance to Ukraine, Israel and other foreign countries (oh no!), as well as a myriad of must-pass bills, such as the Farm Bill and reauthorizing the FAA, according to the Washington Post.
What do we know about Johnson?
He was previously defeated on an internal House GOP ballot by Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN), however Emmer withdrew his candidacy last night, just hours after winning the GOP nomination for the role.
Johnson then emerged during the next round of Tuesday night votes.
He’s also “one of the smartest and most principled opponents of the US Security State (CIA/FBI) and its attempt to control online political speech,” according to Glenn Greenwald.
Johnson, 51, has been a member of the House of Representatives since 2016, and is currently serving his fourth term in the House.
He represents Louisiana’s fourth congressional district, which includes nearly 760,000 residents. Johnson won the seat with the largest margin of victory in his region in more than 50 years, according to a biography on his website.
Of note: After earning both a bachelor’s degree and a law degree from Louisiana State University, Johnson spent nearly 20 years practicing constitutional law.
Johnson then served in the Louisiana Legislature from February 2015 to January 2017.
He and his wife, Kelly Johnson, have been married since 1999 and have four children.
Johnson is currently serving as vice chair of the House Republican Conference for a second time, after a unanimous re-election last year.
In a weekend letter to colleagues, Johnson said it’s the duty of House Republicans to “chart a new path,” and that he has a “clear vision and plan for how to lead.”
Now if he can just get the job!
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
end
USA// COVID//VACCINE/
end
SWAMP STORIES
‘Boycott UFC’ Calls Soar After Mega-Sponsorship Deal With Bud Light
WEDNESDAY, OCT 25, 2023 – 07:45 AM
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) and Anheuser-Busch InBev NV have entered into a multiyear marketing agreement, making Bud Light the official beer of the mixed martial arts promotional organization. This sponsorship is UFC CEO Dana White & Co’s biggest one yet and has already sparked boycott calls from UFC fans.
Anheuser-Busch wrote in a press release that the new multiyear marketing partnership will begin on Jan. 1. The brewer will become the “Official Beer Partner of UFC,” and Bud Light will be plastered on broadcasts, signage across arenas, fight-week activities, social media channels, weigh-ins, press conference, and much much more.
UFC was in a previous sponsorship with Modelo, which has since become America’s top-selling beer after Bud Light sales imploded following its disastrous ‘woke’ advertising with trans-TikTok star Dylan Mulvaney earlier this year. We noted days ago that the brewer reportedly ‘bribed’ distributors to keep their beer on the shelves.
Citibank data shows Bud Light sales continue to flounder:
Weekly US Nielsen data through to 7th October shows Bud Light volume/sales declines continued broadly in line with prior trends. Latest weekly volumes were down -29% (last 3-mth average -30%), with sales down -27% (-27%), while volume share was down -387bps and value -352bps (last three months -399bps and -354bps, respectively). There continues to be contagion to the wider ABInBev portfolio, with Budweiser, Busch, and Michelob still weak, while Coors, Miller, and Modelo (Constellation) continue to gain share. Our estimates and the stock price increasingly discount a base case where the current rates of volume decline in ABI’s US portfolio continue through Q1-24E. As we head into 2024, given likely COGS deflation, an ongoing focus on overheads containment, the risk to the management’s 4-8% mid-term EBITDA growth guidance appears to be skewed to the upside. We reiterate our preference for Beer stocks and Buy rating on ABInBev
Clay Travis, the founder of sports media website OutKick, said Bud Light spent $100 million on the sponsorship:
Bud Light just spent $100 million on a UFC sponsorship deal to try and cancel out the chicks with dicks ad. No one is drinking Bud Light at any tailgate I’ve been to this fall. Brand is dead:
The response was overwhelmingly negative as calls for a boycott mount!
“Anheuser-Busch and Bud Light were UFC’s original beer sponsors more than 15 years,” Dana White said in a press release.
He added: “I’m proud to announce we are back in business together. “
end
THE KING REPORT
BOJ Offers to Lend Govt Debt on Spot (Afternoon Offer)
Bank of Japan to conduct unscheduled bond-buying operation
Japan’s central bank offered to buy 300 billion yen ($2.00 billion) in bonds with maturities of five to 10 years and 100 billion yen worth with maturities of 10-25 years from Wednesday. That was in addition to its daily offer to buy an unlimited amount of JGBs at a fixed rate of 1%…
JBG yields retreat from decade highs after BOJ intervention
The Bank of Japan intervened in the market for the sixth time this month to slow their rise… The BOJ announced an unscheduled offer to purchase bonds worth 300 billion yen ($2.00 billion) with maturities of five to 10 years, and worth 100 billion yen with maturities of 10-25 year, with the operation to be conducted on Wednesday… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jgb-yields-retreat-decade-highs-050807534.html
Stocks rallied early on Tuesday while bonds declined about a half-point. Fangs led the rally as traders poured into trading sardines ahead of expected great results from Google and Microsoft after the close.
ESZs traded higher from the Nikkei opening until a decline commenced near 20:00 ET on reports that the IDF was heavily bombing of Gaza. After losing their entire early gain, ESZs bottomed at 21:37 ET. ESZs and stocks then rallied until they peaked 2 minutes after the 3 ET European opening.
ESZs and stocks declined until 4:37 ET. The ensuing rally ended at 7:32 ET. ESZs then vacillated in a large range until they jumped higher on the 9:30 ET NYSE opening. ESZs rallied from 4258.75 at 9:20 ET to 4274.50 at 9:34 ET. The dump pushed ESZs to 4259.50 at 9:45 ET. ESZs then gyrated in a large range until they jumped higher at 10:23 ET. ESZs hit a daily high of 4283.50 at 10:48 ET.
ESZs and stocks then tumbled to 4242.00 at 12:54 ET. They then rallied to 4261.00 at 13:30 ET. ESZs traded sideways until they broke higher at 13:23 ET. ESZs hit 3272.00 at 13:33 ET. They inched higher to 4276.00 at 15:21 ET and then went inert until a modest decline appeared 5 minutes before the close.
Positive aspects of previous session.
Stocks rallied sharply; USZs were +14/32 at the NYSE close.
Fangs led the rally because 5 uber Fangs will report results over the next 3 days
Negative aspects of previous session
ESZs and stocks tumbled from 10:48 ET until 13:00 ET
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
The dollar rallied sharply; gold declined moderately
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Flat
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4242.16
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4259.38; 4219.43
@thejcoop: New docs House Homeland obtained from DHS under threat of subpoena show that Mayorkas’ department is releasing 96 PERCENT of inadmissible aliens who schedule appointments through the CBP One app—including almost 20,000 Russians just this year.
A secret GOP House vote nominated Tom Emmer, another GOPe RINO, to be Speaker.
Emmer’s opponents say his work about a decade ago as national traveling spokesman for the National Popular Vote initiative casts doubt on his suitability for the role of rallying opposition to President Biden’s agenda… The National Popular Vote campaign launched in 2006 to support efforts to overhaul the Electoral College by passing laws that commit state electors to the candidate who wins the national popular vote. About five years after the initiative’s launch, Emmer took a job as one of the group’s paid spokespeople… https://nypost.com/2022/10/28/knives-out-in-house-gop-whip-race-as-midterms-near/
Emmer was a lobbyist before he became an elected official. When it became obvious that the GOPe candidate could not garner enough GOP voters to become Speaker, Emmer dropped out. Ergo, the internecine war between the GOPe and other GOP factions will continue.
Drone attacks on American bases injured two dozen U.S. military personnel… atAmerican bases in Iraq and Syria… last week (DoD belatedly & reluctantly reveal cuz it crossed Biden’s line in the sand)…
President Biden @POTUS: The United States remains committed to the Palestinian people’s right to dignity and to self-determination. The actions of Hamas terrorists don’t take that right away.
GOP @SenTomCotton: The last time Gazans “self-determined,” they elected a terrorist group to lead their government.
@Fullcarry: Next week will be BIG for the bond market with the US Treasury widely expected to increase coupon auction sizes across the curve at the refunding announcement. Add an FOMC meeting and a payroll number, and we will be rock and rolling to exhaustion. Get some sleep this weekend
Today – The market expected great results from Alphabet and Microsoft. Alphabet’s cloud results were ugly; so ESZs are -8.00 at 20:30 ET. After a five-day decline, the S&P 500 Index rallied on Tuesday. Traders will try to extend the rally today, barring unexpected bad news. Meta reports after the close. At any moment, something extremely bad could occur in the Middle East. Be careful out there!
Expected Economic Data: Sept New Home Sales 680k; Powell speaks at 16:35 ET
Expected Earnings; ADP 2.03, NSC 2.70, ODFL 2.92, HLT 1.65, BA -2.97, ROP 4.22, GD 2.91, IBM 2.12, META 3.60, MAA 2.28
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4333.48 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4261.73 triggers a buy signal
Federal prosecutors spied on Congress in search for leaks, now DOJ is being investigated for it
Several current and former congressional oversight staff have been recently informed that the U.S. Justice Department seized their phone and email records back in 2017 as part of leak investigations, belated revelations that have touched off an inquiry by DOJ’s internal watchdog and raised serious concerns about the separation of powers between the executive and legislative branches…
Officials said the seizures were related, in part, to leak investigations stemming from the FBI’s now-discredited Crossfire Hurricane investigation into Russia collusion…
“One of the most horrible features of war is that all the war-propaganda, all the screaming and lies and hatred, comes invariably from people who are not fighting.” – George Orwell (see GOPe Senators)
@DeSantisWarRoom: Today we are unveiling the ‘Trump Accident Tracker’ — a way of recording how long the former president can go without a workplace accident on the campaign trail. Why is this needed? We’ll explain. THREAD. (Team DeSantis equates DJT’s mental health to The Big Guy’s mental health!)
Every time Trump veers off the teleprompter, what happens? He becomes a major liability for his campaign. Yesterday is a great example. Trump tried to give a shoutout to Viktor Orban — “the leader of Turkey” Orban is the prime minister of Hungary. https://twitter.com/DeSantisWarRoom/status/1716810592462200859
Then Trump laid out his foolproof strategy to win in 2024: convince Republicans NOT to vote!
“You don’t have to vote, don’t worry about voting. We got plenty of votes.”
Then Trump laid out his foolproof strategy to win in 2024: convince Republicans NOT to vote!
"You don't have to vote, don't worry about voting. We got plenty of votes."https://t.co/32VfJwqH3t
But it’s not just his behavior this week that’s concerning — this has been a problem all year. In July, Trump randomly attacked conservative Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds.
Just days after 1,300 Israelis and 30 Americans were murdered, Trump slammed the Israeli leadership and said the terror group Hezbollah is “very smart.” Trump and his team released nearly a dozen statements cleaning this up. https://twitter.com/DeSantisWarRoom/status/1716810598283890788
Can a man become a woman? Without access to his teleprompter, Trump isn’t so sure.
Just two weeks ago, Trump said the Chinese Communist Party “may very well turn out to be fine,” then attacked conservatives who want economic independence. Is this the Trump you remember from 2016?
Just two weeks ago, Trump said the Chinese Communist Party “may very well turn out to be fine,” then attacked conservatives who want economic independence.
Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner has been warning a once every 120-year war cycle is coming, and with hostilities in the Middle East, it is clearly here. This cycle is for big wars such as WWI and WWII. These two wars were part of one big war cycle according to Nenner, and history is now repeating. Keep in mind, this war cycle comes with many countries in possession of nuclear arsenals. Nenner explains, “If you do cycles on war games and war cycles, you can calculate how many people are going to die in such a war. We discussed this in the past, and it now looks ugly. We are talking about a lot of people. There are so many things bad going on in the world, so I would like to not to tell you the number.”
Nenner has said this war cycle will top all other war cycles in body counts. Nenner predicts, “This war cycle is going to be worse than World War II. So, the question is what do we do and where do we go? A lot of my clients are not interested in ‘how do I make money,’ but where should we go. So, I am studying where are the best places to go. This is what I am trying to find out, and I have been very busy with this.”
Back to the death toll that Nenner knows is coming. So, I ask again, how many people will die in the current war cycle? Nenner blurts out, “It could be a quarter of the population of the world.” That’s roughly 2 billion people that could be killed in the current war cycle. Nenner goes on to say, “This may not be in the next war because this is going to continue for many years. It could be in the war after this. What I see now is the Chinese going to the Middle East and the United States helping Israel because if they don’t do that, nobody would trust the United States anymore. I guess the Chinese are going to watch how tough the United States is going to be because, otherwise, they take over Tiawan just like that. They may still do it because everybody is busy with Ukraine and Israel. . . . The U.S. is going to have to prove themselves, otherwise, they will be laughed off the world.”
Nenner also sees a war cycle coming to America through the Southern U.S. border. America will be attacked like never before in this war cycle. Nenner says, “There will be terror attacks in the U.S. and maybe much more because I don’t know how many of them are in there already. They are catching Iranians on a terror list. How did Iranians get to Mexico?”
Nenner thinks the dollar is stable–for now. Interest rates are going to continue to climb but will take a short downward path in the near term. Inflation is going to be going back up soon. Nenner is not a long-term buyer of stocks, and he still thinks the Dow’s downside is 5,000 and global war could take it there in a hurry. The greatest depression in history is still a few years away, but Nenner is 100% sure it is coming. Nenner’s cycles say it will most likely happen in the 2027-2028 time period. Nenner does like gold and silver and thinks gold will be well over $2,500 per ounce within a year and a half. Nenner’s best financial advice is “buy the 2-year Treasury,” and lock in a 5% return with zero risk.
There is much more in the 44-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with renowned cycle analyst and financial expert Charles Nenner for 10.24.23.
AM2017.68
COVID Intel – by Dr.William Makis
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