NOV 1/2023//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $6.15 TO $1979.35 WHILE SILVER CLOSED DOWN 11 CENTS TO $22.73 AS THE SPECS ADD MASSIVELY TO THEIR SHORT POSITION AND CENTRAL BANKS TAKE THE BUY SIDE AND THEN TAKING DELIVERY ESPECIALLY GOLD (800 TONNES THIS QUARTER//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $8.90 TO $924.95 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $20.35 TO $1107.65//ROBERT LAMBOURNE REPORTS ON THE BIS GOLD SWAPS WITH THE FED LOWERING ITS SHORTFALL IN SEPT DOWN TO 96 TONNES..STILL A LONG WAY TO GO//CENTRAL BANKS CONTINUE TO GORGE ON PHYSICAL GOLD ACCUMULATION//GOLD COMMENTARY TODAY FROM PETER SCHIFF/EPOCH TIMES PROVIDES AN EXCELLENT COMMENTARY ON THE DETERORIATING HEALTH OF THE CHINESE ECONOMY//PALESTINIAN THROW RATS INTO MACDONALDS//ISRAEL VS HAMAS: ISRAEL NOW CONTROLS THE NORTH SECTOR OF HAMAS WITH THEIR TANKS AS WELL AS NORTH SOUTH ROADS BUT WITH 15 CASUALTIES//STARVING YEMEN DECLARES WAR ON ISRAEL//NEW DATA RELEASED BY THE USA SUGGESTS THAT THEY ARE IN THE MIDST OF STAGFLATION//ADP REPORT AND JOLTS REPORT//SUBPRIME AUTO LOANS SKYROCKET AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE WORK WILL FINALLY SUCCUMB//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 15 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 29 661 C JP MORGAN 8 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 3 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 4 737 C ADVANTAGE 74 23
TOTAL: 78 78 MONTH TO DATE: 1,389
JPMorgan stopped 8/78 contracts.
FOR NOV.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV/2023. CONTRACT: 78 NOTICES FOR 7800 OZ or 0.2426 TONNES
total notices so far: 1389 contracts for 138,900 oz (4.320 tonnes)
FOR NOV:
SILVER NOTICES:20 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 100,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 231 for 1,155,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $6.15//
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.49 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS AT THE SLV// BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 916,000 OZ
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 441.917 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY STRONG SIZED 678CONTRACTS TO 126,549 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE $0.41 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. WE HAD SOME SPEC SHORT COVERING EPISODE IN TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING.. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A HUMONGOUS SIZED 988 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 988 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.41). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 144 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE SPEC SHORTS TRIED AGAIN DESPERATELY TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALLS WITH LITTLE SUCCESS.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 300 CONTRACTS FOR NIL OZ) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.430 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP +
//NEW STANDING IS THUS 1.625 MILLION OZ
//STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 988CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL – REMOVED 522 CONTRACTS (the cme will no longer provide preliminary no to be except through a paywall)
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 1 days, total 300 contracts: OR 1.5 MILLION OZ (300 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 1.5 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 1.5 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 678 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.41 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR 300 EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 988 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. . WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 1.432 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW STANDING 1.625,000 OZ/// /// WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 378 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUMONGOUS SIZED 988 CONTRACTS//SOME FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT A HUGE (988) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 20 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 100,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 3981 CONTRACTS TO 475,808 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: + ADDED 121 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 3981 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $10.30 LOSS IN PRICE//TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV. AT 4.3514 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3,600 OZ QUEUE JUMP // ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR$10.30 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1144 OI CONTRACTS (3.558 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5125CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 475,687
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1144 CONTRACTS WITH 3981 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 5125 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1144CONTRACTS OR3.558TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE 4147 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5125 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (3981) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1073 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV. AT 4.3514 TONNES // /// 3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AND HUGE TAS LIQUIDATION BUT WE HAD SOME SPEC SHORT COVERINGS DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2941 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
NOV
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 4102 CONTRACTS OR 410,200 OZ OR 3.337 TONNES IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4102 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 1TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 3.337TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 3.337/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.0938% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 3.337 TONNES//
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 678 CONTRACTS OI TO 127,071 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A FAIR 300 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 300and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 300 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 678 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 300 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 378 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 1.890MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE $0.41 LOSS IN PRICE …..(SOME ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERINGS)
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
WEDNESDAY MORNING//TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.31 PTS OR 0.14% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 10.70 PTS OR 0.06% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 742.80 PTS OR 2.40% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.82 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.3190 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3370 /Oil DOWN TO 82.38 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 86.35/ Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 3981CONTRACTS TO 475,808 WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $10,30 ON TUESDAY.(OUR SHORT SPECULATORS COVERED QUITE A BIT OF THEIR POSITIONS DURING COMEX TRADING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 5125 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 5125 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5125 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1144 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5125LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 4102 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $10,30//TUESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A STRONG 988 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: NOV (4.463 TONNES (ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 4.463 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $10.30) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 1144TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF TUESDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. IT DID HAVE SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING WITH THE MASSIVE PRICE INCREASE.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 3.337 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (4.3514 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3600 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTALS STANDING:4.463 TONNES + ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $10.30. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE SPECULATORS HAVE GONE MASSIVELY SHORT WITH OUR BANKERS NET LONG. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOW HOW MUCH GOLD WILL THE BANKERS PULL FROM OUR SHORT SPECULATORS. SPECULATORS YESTERDAY ADDED TO THEIR HUGE SHORTS.
WE HAD ADDED + 121 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1144 CONTRACTS OR 114400 OZ OR 3.558 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1389 notices 138,900 OZ 4.320TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: 0 oz
customer deposits: 1
i) Into Delaware: 15,168.992 oz
total customer deposits: 15,168.992 oz
we had 2 customer withdrawals
i) Out of CNT 74,554.872 oz
ii) Out of Delaware: 1004.680 oz
total withdrawals 75,559.552 oz
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.
For the front month of NOVEMBER we have an oi of 124 contracts having LOST 1275 contracts. We had 1311 contracts filed on tuesday, so we gained 36 contracts or an additional 3600 oz will stand for delivery at the comex in this NON active delivery month of NOVEMBER. Our short speculators have been met with physical delivery demands by the bank. The only way they can obtain gold is through these EFP’s where delivery is taken in London on a T + 2 basis.
December LOST 4941 contracts up to 371,545 contracts.
We had 78 contracts filed for today representing 7800 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 78 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 8 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1389 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (124 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 78 x 100 oz per contract equals 143,500 OZ OR 4.463 TONNES +
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the novcontract month: No of notices filed so far (1389) x 100 oz + (124) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (78) x 100 oz) which equals 143,500oz standing OR 4.463
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 4.463 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE BUT GENERALLY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH. (OCT). Somebody is after a considerable amount of gold from the comex.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 19,916,440.753 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,066,880.423 (313.12 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,849,560.329 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,178,625(REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 254.389 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
NOV 1
//2023// THE NOV 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
888,545.001 oz
Delaware Brinks CNT HSBC
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
5963.701 OZ DELAWARE
No of oz served today (contracts)
20 CONTRACT(S) (100,,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
94 contracts (470,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
231 Contracts (1,155,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: 0
total: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into Delaware 5963.701 oz
total customer deposit 5963.701 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.441 million oz/267.869 million or 50.17%
Comex withdrawals 2
i) Out of Delaware 1004.680 oz
ii) Out of CNT 74,554,872 oz
total: 75,559.552 oz
adjustments: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 38.229 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 267.809 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF NOV /2023 OI: 114 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 172 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 211 NOTICE FILED
ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED 39 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 195,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR SILVER IN NOVEMBER
DEC. LOST 504 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 93,944 .
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 20 for 100,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 47,796//poor
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 59,188 poor
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in nov. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 231 x 5,000 oz = 1,155,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of nov (114) and the number of notices served upon today 78 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV/2023 contract month: 231 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV (114) – number of notices served upon today (78 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month equates to 1.625 MILLION OZ
There are 38.229 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.49 TONNES
OCT 31/859.49 TONNES//
OCT 30/WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES
OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD! //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES
OCT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE 15.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD! //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
OCT 19/WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.19 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $32.55 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.43 TONNES
OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 855.45 TONNES
OCT 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 855.45 TONNES
OCT 13/WITH GOLD UP $57.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES
OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES
OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $11.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $30.60 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.81 TONNES
OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.58 TONNES
OCT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.31 TONNES
OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES
OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES
OCT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.35 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.40 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
SEPT 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.70 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.83 TONNES
SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $25.60 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
SEPT 19/WITH GOLD UP $0.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 18/WITH GOLD UP $8.40 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.217 TONNES
SEPT 15/WITH GOLD UP $13.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.055 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.70 TONNES
SEPT 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.63 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.01 TONNES
SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 8/WITH GOLD UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD : / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.64 TONNES
SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.22 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.69 TONNES
SEPT 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.80 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.81 TONNES
SEPT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.50 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.97 TONNES
SEPT 1/WITH GOLD UP $1.00 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.: / //INVENTORY RESTS AT 890.10 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 859.49 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
NOV 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 916,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.917 MILLION OZ
OCT 31/442.833 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY
OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.750 MILLION OZ
OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 641,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.750 MILLION OZ
OCT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.871 MILLION OZ
OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.658 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.871 MILLION OZ
OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP XXX CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
OCT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.207 MILLLION OZ FROM THE SLV///// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 447.736 MILLION OZ
OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.664 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 447.730 MILLION OZ
OCT 13/WITH SILVER UP 90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.394 MILLION OZ
OCT 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.825 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.769 MILLION OZ
OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF .366 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.594 MILLION OZ
OCT 10/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 1.833 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.960 MILLION OZ
OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 0.916 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.127 MILLION OZ
OCT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.328 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.211 MILLION OZ
OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
OCT 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
OCT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 98 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
SEPT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.066 MILLION OZ
SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 22/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.492 MILLION OZ
SEPT 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449,033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 19/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.1 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 449.033 MILLION OZ
SEPT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1.651 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.332 MILLION OZ
SEPT 15/WITH SILVER UP 37 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.681 MILLION OZ
SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1,009 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.736 MILLION OZ
SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 1 CENT TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 11/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.209 MILLION OZ INTO TEH SLV//: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.727 MILLION OZ
SEPT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 36 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.373 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 436.518 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 734,000 OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.891 MILLION OZ
SEPT 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.00 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 441.917 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
Peter Schiff: A Crisis Is Already Playing Out Under The Radar
The mainstream remains optimistic about the trajectory of the economy. Price inflation has supposedly been beaten down. GDP growth was even better than expected, and most economists have tabled their recession predictions. But in his podcast, Peter Schiff explained that it’s all an illusion. The financial crisis has already started, and it continues to play out beneath the radar.
Nobody understands that this crisis has started. But believe me, it has. This was the way the 2008 financial crisis started. It didn’t just happen when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt.”
By the time Lehman went under, everybody knew there was a crisis. But it was obvious long before that.
That’s the reason it went under. It didn’t just go out of business out of the dark. It wasn’t just happenstance. The reason that Lehman Brothers, and Bear Sterns, and Fanny and Freddy, and AIG, and all these companies went under was their exposure to the mortgage market. That exposure was obvious to me for years, but particularly in 2007 when the subprime market blew up. That was the point where even the village idiot should have been able to figure out what was coming. The problem was most people on Wall Street weren’t even smart enough to qualify as the village idiot, so they still couldn’t figure it out.”
They needed the proverbial anvil to fall on their head. That finally happened in 2008. But even in the summer of ’08, a lot of people were oblivious.
So, if you’re wondering, ‘Peter, how can we be so close to this massive crisis, in fact, how could this crisis have already started if nobody is talking about it?’ Well, just go back to the summer of 2008. Nobody was talking about it.”
Peter emphasized that this crisis is much bigger because the problems driving it are much bigger.
They’re the same problems. They just dwarf the size of the problems we had before. Because instead of actually dealing with the problems, we kicked the can down the road and made the problems bigger. Now we have to deal with the consequences of that.”
Fed officials keep saying that the banking system is “sound.” But Peter said all of the big banks are insolvent.
Now, as long as they pretend that all their underwater assets, they’re going to hold them to maturity, well, they can pretend that they don’t have a problem. But eventually, they have to stop pretending because circumstances intervene, and they actually need to sell the securities that they had intended to hold to maturity.”
Newsweek recently published an article titled “America Is Heading for an Interest Payment Crisis.” Peter noted that at least they’re writing about that, but they still miss the root of the problem. It’s not just the interest. It’s also the principal.
A lot of people claim the principal doesn’t matter. As long as the US can make interest payments, everything is fine. But as Peter pointed out, the national debt wasn’t a gift. It’s debt. But it’s nature it has to be paid back.
So, when they would say, ‘We don’t have to repay the debt,’ I would say, ‘Well, did you run that by the Chinese? Did you run it by the Japanese? Do they know that that’s the deal? Do they know that they’re loaning us money but they’re never going to get it back?’ Because that’s not a loan. That is a gift.”
Of course, the response is always, “We can just borrow from somebody else to pay it back.”
In other words, it’s a Ponzi scheme. So, Bernie Madoff never had to worry about paying back money because he would get it from the next sucker who didn’t realize it was a Ponzi scheme. But what happens when people realize it’s a Ponzi scheme? They don’t want to participate. And that’s what’s going on. Our creditors don’t want to loan us more money to pay back other creditors. That is what is happening. That is why bond yields are going up because the people who own the bonds want their money back as they mature and we can’t find new buyers.”
Rising interest rates impede the solvency of the United States. As rates rise, the Treasury has to borrow even more to keep up with the interest payments. As debt goes up, the US becomes a bigger credit risk. It also becomes more likely that the government and central bank will have to create more inflation to service the debt.
So, higher interest rates don’t actually make Treasuries more attractive. They make them less attractive. That is a problem. This is a bottomless pit. This is a self-perpetuating collapse that we are witnessing that is going to gather momentum.”
During an interview, new House Speaker Mike Johnson claimed that during the Trump years, the US had the greatest economy ever. Peter called that “a lie.”
We didn’t have the greatest economy in the history of the world. It wasn’t even close. We didn’t even have the greatest economy in the history of America. We didn’t have the greatest economy in the 21st century. We had a bubble under Trump. Trump didn’t create the bubble. He inherited the bubble, and he made it bigger. That bubble is now popped.”
You can trace the origins of the bubble all the way back to the Bill Clinton era and the monetary policy initiated by Alan Greenspan. That bubble popped the first time under Bush 2, was reinflated, popped again in 2008, and then they managed to blow it back up again.
The idea that people think everything was great just a few years ago and it’s all gone to hell — that’s wrong because it assumes that we could just fix it, really simple. We just have to go back to the Trump policies and we’re going to be great again. No! This problem is much bigger than just the bad things that Biden has done.”
Peter explained how the Clinton administration started the trend of using shorter-term financing to lower interest payments. They could do that because rates were so low. Of course, that created more risk because rising rates can quickly make those payments skyrocket. That’s where we are today. Interest rates are soaring and all of that short-term debt is maturing. That means the Treasury has to borrow at a much higher rate to replace that debt.
It’s going to escalate into this complete sovereign debt and currency crisis, which is already started, but it’s a long way from ending.”
In this podcast, Peter also explains why the future of the US looks more like Argentina than Japan.
brought this to your attention yesterday but worth repeating
In the first 9 months of the year, China purchased a whopping 800 tonnes of gold on tap for a year purchases of close to 1200 tonnes.
(London’s financial Times)
China leads record central bank gold buying in first nine months of year
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2023-10-31 09:50Section: Daily Dispatches
By Harry Dempsey Financial Times, London Tuesday, October 31, 2023
China has spearheaded record levels of central bank purchases of gold globally in the first nine months of the year, as countries seek to hedge against inflation and reduce their reliance on the dollar.
Central banks have bought 800 tonnes in the first nine months of the year, up 14% year-on-year, according to a report by the World Gold Council, an industry group.
The “voracious” rate of buying has helped bullion prices defy surging bond yields and a strong dollar to trade just shy of $2,000 a troy ounce. …
All central banks have loaded up on gold: 337 tonnes in the three month through to the end of Sept. At this rate, yearly purchases will total 1348 tonnes. Generally ex Russia ex China, gold production is around 2,200 tonnes. Jewelry production is around 3,000 tonnes so we have a massive deficit.
Bloomberg/Spence.
Central bank gold binge is even bigger than had been thought
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-11-01 00:30Section: Daily Dispatches
By Eddie Spence Bloomberg News via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California Tuesday, October 31, 2023
Central banks have loaded up on more gold than previously thought this year, offering crucial support to prices that have faced pressure from global monetary tightening.Countries expanded bullion reserves by 337 tons in the three months through September, the World Gold Council said in a report today. That follows an increase of 175 tons in the second quarter, which was bigger than the council’s previous estimate of 103 tons.
Central bank purchases for the first nine months of the year now total 800 tons, driven mainly by China, Poland, and Singapore, as well as unreported buying. The pace has exceeded the amount for the same period of last year, which ended with record demand. …
A good start for the Fed: they lowered their gold swaps from 129 tonnes to 96 tonnes. The Feds found 33 tonnes of physical gold to repay their shortfall
(Robert Lambourne)
Robert Lambourne: BIS gold swaps fell in September as bank’s substantial trading continued
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-11-01 12:21Section: Daily Dispatches
By Robert Lambourne Wednesday, November 1, 2023
Active trading in gold swaps by the Bank for International Settlements, the central bank of the central banks, continued in September.
From information in the BIS statement of account for the month, published this week —
— it is estimated that the bank’s gold swaps fell 33 tonnes in the month, from 129 to 96 tonnes.
The BIS’ gold swaps had fallen to zero as of December 31, 2022, and reached their peak for 2023 so far of 188 tonnes as of May 31.
It remains likely that the BIS has entered these swaps on behalf of the U.S. Federal Reserve. There is no evidence to suggest that any other major central bank is actively trading this much gold, and so far in 2023 many central banks have been accumulating physical gold.
he basic transaction that the BIS is believed to undertake is to swap dollars for gold transferred from a bullion bank, then to deposit this gold in a gold sight account at a central bank, presumed to be the Fed but almost certainly being the central bank that is using the BIS to execute the gold swap on its behalf.
Given the recent volatility in the levels of BIS gold swaps, it seems likely that most are of short duration. Why a central bank needs the BIS to undertake gold swaps isn’t clear, but the swaps are likely connected with short-term trading needs, which could include suppressing the gold price.
The gold price decreased from $1,940 at August 31 to $1,849 at September 29 (per USAGold.com). The volatility in the volume of swaps is clear from a review of Table B below. Volumes of swaps in 2023 are well below the average seen in the preceding four years but they remain significant.
This trading has not been officially explained by the BIS, and thus may be related to efforts to drive the gold price down in recent months. Much of GATA’s research on gold price suppression indicates that an active policy of price suppression was implemented more than 30 years ago and was meant primarily to help suppress interest rates. This article from 2005 highlights work in this area by former U.S. Treasury Secretary and Harvard University President Lawrence Summers:
It also remaining relevant are the following remarks made in a speech by Summers on September 8, 1999, as reported in the book The Wealth of Progressive Nations: The Collected Lectures of Lawrence Summers.” The remarks below are from the section of the speech titled “A New Economic Paradigm.”
“Most important of all, the Clinton-Gore administration has established a new paradigm for the management of our nation’s budget, with enormous cumulative benefits for our economy and our citizens. It has become a commonplace to remark on how exceptional today’s 4.2% unemployment rate is relative to any expectation at the beginning of the decade. It is no less remarkable that today, after 8.5 years of expansion, long-term interest rates are around 2 percentage points lower than they were at its start.”
From this it is reasonable to conclude that keeping interest rates “lower” was considered a priority and succeeding at it was “remarkable.” While this is not proof that gold price suppression was undertaken specifically to reduce interest rates, it highlights that in any case reducing interest rates was a priority.
In this context the following report issued by GATA in 2007 concerning an analysis of the gold market by Frank Veneroso is worth rereading as it confirms that GATA’s primary assertions about gold price suppression are plausible:
Using the September 29 gold price of $1,849, the 96 tonnes of BIS gold swaps are valued at about $5.7 billion. (The corresponding value at August 31 was around $8 billion.) So the recent trading in BIS gold swaps is of high monetary value and shows that gold remains a significant monetary asset still much traded by central banks.
As ever with the BIS, it remains unlikely that more information about why the bank undertakes these transactions will ever be provided. This secrecy implies that central bank gold policy involves much deception — that it could be currency market intervention for one or more central banks for which the BIS provides camouflage.
For example, the recently published BIS 2023 annual report does not provide any information on the gold swaps other than confirming that swaps covering 77 tonnes of gold were in place as of March 31, 2023.
The worsening finances of Western nations, especially the United States, may reduce the appeal to the BIS of undertaking gold swaps and possibly even reduce the appeal of swaps to the central bank or banks for which the BIS has been acting. So a report issued by GATA in 2012 is worth revisiting as it highlights the acknowledgment of gold price suppression by a former chairman of the BIS, Jelle Zijlstra, a Dutch politician, economist, and central banker. It seems likely that BIS management understands what the swaps are being used for and why they require camouflage:
The continuing conundrum facing the Federal Reserve about raising dollar interest rates again should reduce the appeal to the Fed of having to return swapped gold. Despite its rhetoric about pushing interest rates higher, the Fed needs to avoid more erosion of confidence in the U.S. Treasuries market when the U.S. government’s ever-increasing debt has been so controversial recently. The Treasury Department’s July report highlights a cumulative deficit of $1.695 trillion featuring lower cumulative revenue than during the same period a year ago, higher cumulative expenditures, and much higher interest costs pushed up by the higher interest rates set by the Fed:
This report arguably fails to highlight the full extent of the negative trends. Please refer to Appendix A for further remarks on this topic, which suggest that the underlying deficit is possibly already around $2.1 trillion.
In these circumstances the room for the Fed to raise interest rates further seems restricted and hence it seems that the BIS and some of its shareholders might be questioning the role of the bank in these swaps and the obligation to make future deliveries of gold, since the Fed may be unable to move interest rates high enough to contain inflation. One factor is the evidence of recently increased prices for oil and a possible trend of even higher prices because of falling U.S. shale oil production combined with the impact of the fighting in Israel and Gaza.
The suspension of the federal government’s debt ceiling makes it easier to defend against a banking crisis by allowing the U.S. government to offer additional bank deposit guarantees. The debt ceiling deal may even make a revaluation of gold easier for the United States to carry out.
Again, it seems appropriate to note that a report titled “Living with High Public Debt” authored by Serkan Arslanalp and Barry Eichengreen was published in August by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. This report reinforces just how difficult it is to handle the present situation of high federal government debt and with spending far in excess of revenue. The report can be found at the Kansas City Fed’s internet site here —
“Looking forward, the challenges are daunting. Given aging populations, governments will have to find additional finance for healthcare and pensions. They will have to finance spending on defense, climate change abatement, and adaptation, and the digital transition. A growing number of low-income countries are already in debt distress.
“Living with high public debt therefore means avoiding steps that make a bad situation worse. This means minimizing unproductive public spending. It means targeting social transfers as a way of limiting pressures on the expenditure side. It means limiting contingent liabilities by, inter alia, adequately regulating banks and avoiding recapitalization costs.
“It means contemplating tax increases where revenues are low by international standards. It means further developing financial markets where markets are underdeveloped and where a diverse population of local investors in debt securities is absent. It means embracing legal and procedural changes that streamline and speed restructuring for countries whose debts are unsustainable.
“This modest medicine does not make for a happy diagnosis. But it makes for a realistic one.”
*
In the circumstances vividly described in the report it seems ridiculous that the price of gold has been falling during 2023 and the report offers yet more reason to question whether the use of gold swaps by the BIS, probably on behalf of the Fed, is being done as part of an effort to suppress the dollar gold price.
Table A below highlights the level of gold swaps reported in the annual reports of the BIS back to 2010, when the bank’s use of gold swaps appears to have begun. At only one year-end since then, in March 2016, has the swap level been zero.
The BIS’ recently published annual report dated March 31, 2023, discloses that the BIS still holds 102 tonnes of its own gold and that few of its activities in derivatives involve central banks. An assumption that the gold held by the BIS remains at 102 tonnes has been used by this analyst to make the estimate of the bank’s gold swap level. The low level of derivatives reported by the BIS using central banks as counterparties at the year-end seems a sensible reason to assume that the swaps are almost certainly done with gold bullion banks rather than central banks. Historically, the first swaps described below were done with bullion banks.
* * *
… Historical context …
The BIS rarely comments publicly on its gold activities, but its first use of gold swaps was considered important enough to cause the bank to give some background information to the Financial Times for an article published July 29, 2010, coinciding with publication of the bank’s 2009-10 annual report.
The general manager of the BIS at the time, Jaime Caruana, said the gold swaps were “regular commercial activities” for the bank, and he confirmed that they were carried out with commercial banks and so did not involve central banks. It also seems highly likely that the BIS’ remaining swaps are still all made with commercial banks, because the BIS annual report has never disclosed a gold swap between the BIS and a major central bank.
The swap transactions potentially created a mismatch at the BIS, which may have ended up being long unallocated gold (the gold held in BIS sight accounts at major central banks) and short allocated gold (the gold required to be returned to swap counterparties). This possible mismatch has not been reported by the BIS.
The gold banking activities of the BIS have been a regular part of the services it offers to central banks since the bank’s establishment 90 years ago. The first annual report of the BIS explains these activities in some detail:
A June 2008 presentation made by the BIS to potential central bank members at its headquarters in Basel, Switzerland, noted that the bank’s services to its members include secret interventions in the gold and foreign exchange markets:
The use of gold swaps to take gold held by commercial banks and then deposit it in gold sight accounts held in the name of the BIS at major central banks doesn’t appear ever to have been as large a part of the BIS’ gold banking business as it has been in recent years, although the recent declines suggest this is changing.
As of March 31, 2010, excluding gold owned by the BIS, there were 1,706 tonnes held in the name of the BIS in gold sight accounts at major central banks, of which 346 tonnes or 20% were sourced from gold swaps from commercial banks.
If the BIS was adopting the level of disclosure made by publicly held companies, such as commercial banks, some explanation of these changes probably would have been required by the accounting regulators. This irony may not be lost on those dealing with regulatory activities at the BIS. Presumably the shrinkage of the BIS’ gold banking business shows that even central banks now prefer to hold their own gold or hold it in earmarked form — that is, as allocated gold.
A review of Table B below highlights recent BIS activity with gold swaps, and despite the recent declines, the recent positions estimated from the BIS monthly statements have regularly been large, especially in early 2022, and the volume of trading has been significant.
No explanation for this continuing use of swaps has been published by the BIS. Indeed, no comment on the bank’s use of gold swaps has been offered since 2010.
This gold is supplied by bullion banks via the swaps to the BIS. The gold is then deposited in BIS gold sight accounts (unallocated gold accounts) at major central banks such as the Federal Reserve.
The reasons for this activity have never been fully explained by the BIS and various conjectures have been made as to why the BIS has facilitated it. One conjecture is that the swaps are a mechanism for the return of gold secretly supplied by central banks to cover shortfalls in the gold markets. The use of the BIS to facilitate this trade suggests of a desire to conceal the rationale for the transactions.
As can be seen in Table A below, the BIS has used gold swaps extensively since its financial year 2009-10. No use of swaps is reported in the bank’s annual reports for at least 10 years prior to the year ended March 2010.
The February 2021 estimate of the bank’s gold swaps (552 tonnes) was higher than any level of swaps reported by the BIS at its March year-end since March 2010. The swaps reported at March 2021 were at the highest year-end level reported, as is clear from Table A.
—–
Table A — Swaps reported in BIS annual reports
March 2010: 346 tonnes. March 2011: 409 tonnes. March 2012: 355 tonnes. March 2013: 404 tonnes. March 2014: 236 tonnes. March 2015: 47 tonnes. March 2016: 0 tonnes. March 2017: 438 tonnes. March 2018: 361 tonnes. March 2019: 175 tonnes March 2020: 326 tonnes March 2021: 490 tonnes March 2022: 358 tonnes March 2023: 77 tonnes
—–
The table below reports the estimated swap levels since August 2018. It can be seen that the BIS is actively involved in trading gold swaps and other gold derivatives with changes from month to month reported in excess of 100 tonnes in this period.
—–
Table B – Swaps estimated by GATA from BIS monthly statements of account
* The estimate originally reported by GATA was 78 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 77 tonnes. It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.
± The estimate originally reported by GATA was 487 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 490 tonnes, It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.
** The estimate originally reported by GATA was 332 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 326 tonnes. It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.
GATA uses gold prices quoted by USAGold.com to estimate the level of gold swaps held by the BIS at month-ends.
—–
As noted already, the BIS in recent times has refused to explain its activities in the gold market, nor for whom the bank is acting:
Despite this reticence the BIS has almost certainly acted on behalf of central banks in taking out these swaps, as they are the BIS’ owners and control its Board of Directors. Historically, the BIS has often acted on behalf of the Federal Reserve.
This refusal to explain prompts some observers to believe that the BIS acts as an agent for central banks intervening surreptitiously in the gold and currency markets, providing those central banks with access to gold as well as protection from exposure of their interventions.
As mentioned above, it is possible that the swaps provide a mechanism for bullion banks to return gold originally lent to them by central banks to cover bullion bank shortfalls of gold. Some commentators have suggested that a portion of the gold held by exchange-traded funds and managed by bullion banks is sourced directly from central banks.
——
Appendix A
Remarks on the underlying Federal government deficit for the year ended September 30, 2023
The reported federal government deficits for the last two fiscal years are not fully representative of the underlying trends.
The deficit in the year to September 30, 2022, is reported as $1,375 billion and the deficit for the year to September 30, 2023 is reported to be $1,695 billion. However, in 2022 a charge of $430 billion was taken to write off some of the student debt owed to the government. Part of this write off was barred by the Supreme Court in June 2023 and consequently the decision was taken in August 2023 to write back an amount of $319 billion to accommodate the court decision. Hence the underlying trend figures for the deficits in the 2 years should be a deficit of $1,056 billion “(1,375 – 319)” in the year to 30/9/2022 and $2,014 billion “(1,695 + 319)”in the year to 30/9/2023. This is an increase of 91%.
The $319 billion adjustment to student loan debt is reported in the August 2023 monthly Treasury statement. Quite surprisingly it is not highlighted in the September monthly statement.
No doubt there are all sorts of other reasons, such as the war in Ukraine, that will affect the comparison, but it is really quite surprising that there hasn’t been more commentary about the one-off impact of the adjustment to student loan relief.
The interest costs of the federal government also appear to require some adjustment to be able to deduce the underlying trend. This is because the results reported for interest costs are done differently for the interest costs relating to the debt held by the public and for the interest costs for the “special issues” debt, which is debt held by various long-term government-sponsored funds, such as for military pensions. The interest cost for the debt held by the public is done in what most financial professionals regard as the correct way, which is to calculate the interest cost for the year regardless of when the interest payments are made — this is what accountants call the “accruals basis.” The interest costs reported for this aspect of the government debt is $489 billion in the year to September 30, 2022, and $666 billion for the year to September 30, 2023, which is an increase of 36%. However, the interest cost on the “special debt,” which is based on when the interest is paid, has fallen to $213 billion in fiscal 2023 from $228 billion in fiscal 2022.
It is difficult to correct this to an accruals basis without the relevant information, but with “special debt” increasing by about 2% in the year it seems implausible that the underlying interest charge has declined. It also seems unlikely that interest payments will be made in advance of interest being charged on an accruals basis, and given the recent problems of keeping within the debt ceiling, it seems plausible to regard the $213 billion reported in fiscal 2023 as more likely to have been suppressed than the $238 billion reported in fiscal 2022 to have been accelerated. So perhaps the underlying interest charge on the “special debt” in fiscal 2023 is maybe $50 billion higher than the reported cash basis reported cost of $213 billion.
All the relevant reported figures above come from the September 2023 Monthly Treasury Statement.
Hence it seems plausible that the underlying deficit in fiscal 2023 was around $2.1 trillion, adjusting for the student loan relief and estimating the accruals basis interest charge for the entire federal government debt. This also implies that the underlying interest costs of the federal government were running at about $0.95 trillion annually in the year to September 30, 2023. Given the increases in base interest rates made since June 2022, the increases expected in total debt issued (especially bearing in mind the much higher underlying deficit in fiscal 2023), and the need regularly to refinance parts of the existing debt with borrowings that will attract a higher interest charge, it seems entirely reasonable to forecast that the total debt interest charge will rise considerably in fiscal 2024, perhaps even to $1.4-$1.5 trillion.
—–
Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults for GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market.
* * *
4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES//
end
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: ORANGE JUICE
END
END
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.3190
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.3370
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.31 PTS OR 0.14%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 10.70 PTS OR 0.06%
2. Nikkei closed UP 742.80 PTS OR 2.40 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 106.76 EURO FALLS TO 1.0543 DOWN 35 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.949 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 151.20/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP// OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.8140***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 4.752*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.899…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO 4.133
3j Gold at $1983.20 silver at: 22.66 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 17 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 93.22//
3m oil into the 82 dollar handle for WTI and 86 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 151.20// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.949% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9089 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9583 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.804 UP 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 5.069 UP 5 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.067 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.33…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 7 BASIS PTS AT 4.582
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
US equities softer, USD & JPY bid with sentiment tentative ahead of FOMC – Newsquawk US Market Open
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 06:04 AM
US futures are a touch softer ahead of Tier 1 events while European bourses have recovered slightly from initial downside with overall action fairly contained
USD bid with the index eclipsing its end-October peak, JPY attempts to claw back post-BoJ downside while NZD slips after jobs numbers
Fixed benchmarks cautious but have managed to benefit modestly from the risk tone
Crude lifted by Iran’s Khamenei reiterating his call for Muslim nations to stop exporting oil to Israel
The Rafah border crossing has opened from Gaza into Egypt; for humanitarian purposes to allow the transit of foreign nationals and those with severe injuries
Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, JOLTS, BCB Policy Announcement, FOMC Policy Announcement & Chair Powell, US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement, Speech from SNB’s Jordan. Earnings from Norwegian Cruise Line, Kraft Heinz, PayPal & Qualcomm.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are little changed on the session with cash picking up from a softer open while futures have deteriorated slightly, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%.
Sectors are being dictated by earnings updates with Retail outperforming post-Next while Health Care benefits from GSK. At the other end of the spectrum, Media lags after Wolters Kluwer though Utilities are not far behind given pronounced losses in Orsted.
Stateside, futures are in the red with specifics slim ahead of the FOMC and Quarterly Refunding, ES -0.3% & NQ -0.4%; preview and primer respectively available for both events. Following those Tier 1 events, after-market earnings include QCOM ABNB, ABNB, MDLZ, MET & PYPL.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
Greenback grinds higher ahead of Fed and packed agenda in the lead up, DXY eclipses month end high within 106.89-64 range.
Yen claws back post-BoJ losses with the aid of more audible verbal intervention, USD/JPY retreats from 151.70 to 151.15 at one stage.
Euro probes semi-round number support at 1.0550 vs Dollar after losing 1.0600+ status.
Kiwi labours after weaker than forecast NZ jobs and labour cost metrics, NZD/USD drifts down from 0.5827 to sub-0.5800 and AUD/NZD cross pops back above 1.0900.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1778 vs exp. 7.3327 (prev. 7.1779)
Japan’s top currency diplomat Kanda said speculative FX moves seen cannot be explained by fundamentals and he is concerned that one-sided, sharp FX moves negatively affect the economy, while he added that authorities may or may not say when they conduct intervene, according to Reuters.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said it is important for FX to move stably reflecting economic fundamentals and rapid FX moves are undesirable, while he won’t rule out any steps to respond to disorderly FX moves.
Commodities have, broadly speaking, spent the bulk of the European morning fairly contained with fresh catalysts limited ahead of a particularly busy US agenda headlined by Quarterly Refunding & the FOMC.
The sessions current peaks of USD 82.26/bbl and USD 86.22/bbl for WTI Dec’23 and Brent Jan’24 respectively printed in the wake of remarks from Iran’s Supreme Leader.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei says Muslim countries should stop exporting oil and food to Israel, via Tasnim. Echoes recent remarks. For instance, on October 18th Khamenei called for for its neighbouring nations to impose an oil embargo on Israel alongside the expulsion of Israeli ambassadors.
US Private Energy Inventories (bbls): Crude +1.3mln (exp. +1.3mln), Gasoline -0.4mln (exp. -0.8mln), Distillates -2.5mln (exp. -1.5mln), Cushing +0.4mln.
Russian oil exports from the Black Sea port of Tuapse planned at 1.103mln/T in November (1.142mln/T in October), via Reuters citing traders.
Spot gold is essentially unchanged and around recent levels ahead of the packed docket while base metals have a modest negative bias, following suit to the broader risk tone from an equity perspective and in the wake of disappointing Chinese PMIs.
The Times’ Shadow MPC voted 7-2 in favour of keeping rates on hold.
EUROPEAN DATA
UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 44.8 vs. Exp. 45.2 (Prev. 45.2)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
White House said US President Biden would veto a House supplemental request for Israel aid which includes poison pill offsets and no aid for Ukraine, according to Reuters.
US House panel seeks ban on federal purchases of Chinese drones, via FT.
GEOPOLITICS
US Secretary of State Blinken is to travel to Israel on Friday to meet with the Israeli government and will make other stops in the region, according to the State Department. Furthermore, Blinken held a call with Israel’s President and emphasised the need to take precautions to minimise the harm to civilians.
US Pentagon said an additional 300 US troops will be heading to the Middle East but will not be going to Israel.
Chilean President Boric said Chile recalled its ambassador to Israel for consultations given Israel’s ‘violations of international humanitarian law’ in the Gaza Strip, according to Reuters.
Iranian Defense Minister says they will unveil a new long-range defense system in a couple of weeks, via IranNuances.
The Rafah border crossing has opened from Gaza into Egypt; for humanitarian purposes to allow the transit of foreign nationals and those with severe injuries.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is a touch softer on the session perhaps given some modest USD strength but generally BTC is fairly contained and exhibiting similar price action to the broader market which is moving into a pre-FOMC/Quarterly Refunding tone.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded predominantly higher albeit with upside capped for some indices heading into the FOMC announcement and as the region digested another deluge of data releases including disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI which printed its first contraction in three months.
ASX 200 was positive as outperformance in the mining and real estate sectors picked up the slack from defensives and helped shrug off the surprise contraction in building approvals data.
Nikkei 225 was the biggest gainer amid reports that Japan’s new economic package is to total around JPY 17tln and after recent currency weakness in the aftermath of the BoJ’s modest YCC tweak.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were cautious as Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data followed suit to the recent deterioration seen in the official release and amid some disappointment after the PBoC’s open market operations resulted in a net daily drain despite prior reports that the central bank is likely to add further liquidity.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
White House said US President Biden is aiming to have a constructive conversation with Chinese President Xi in San Francisco in November.
Japan’s government is considering spending over JPY 17tln for a package of measures to ease the pain from rising inflation and will compile a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year of around JPY 13.1tln to fund part of the package, according to a draft cited by Reuters.
Total size of Japan’s economic package is expected to be around JPY 37.4tln, according to Jiji News.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Oct) 49.5 vs. Exp. 50.8 (Prev. 50.6)
Australian Building Approvals (Sep) -4.6% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 7.0%, Rev. 8.1%)
Australian Manufacturing PMI (Oct F) 48.2 (Prelim. 48.0)
Australian AIG Manufacturing Index (Oct) -20.9 (Prev. -12.8); Construction Index (Oct) 18.5 (Prev. 7.1)
New Zealand HLFS Job Growth QQ (Q3) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 1.0%); Unemployment Rate (Q3) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. 3.6%)
New Zealand HLFS Participation Rate (Q3) 72.0% vs. Exp. 72.5% (Prev. 72.4%)
New Zealand Labour Cost Index QQ (Q3) 0.8% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.1%); YY (Q3) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.3%)
END
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Futures Drop Ahead Of Fed Decision, Treasury’s New Borrowing Plan
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 08:13 AM
US equity futures are weaker to start the new month ahead of today’s Fed meeting (which as we previewed earlier will be a nothingburger now that the Treasury itself is raising yields with its relentless debt issuance and doing the Fed’s job for it) as well as macro data dump which includes the Treasury’s Q4 refunding statement. As of 8:00am, S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped by about 0.4%. The USD is stronger with bonds catching a bid. Commodities are mixed with crude/base metals up, while natgas, gold down, and both softs/grains mixed. Today’s data focus includes the Fed, ADP, JOLTS, ISM, vehicle sales; Treasury refunding announcement at 8.30a ET. We also get a deluge of consumer-sector earnings today.
In premarket trading, WeWork plunged 42% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the company plans to file for bankruptcy as early as next week. First Solar rises about 4.1% after earnings beat consensus expectations as the solar panel company avoided an industrywide slowdown. Here are the other notable premarket movers
Canada Goose slides 9.5% after the apparel company slashed its annual forecasts.
Crispr Therapeutics jumps 9.2% after the company’s potential gene-editing treatment for sickle cell disease gained support from some advisers to the FDA.
Estée Lauder Cos.slips 15% after the company lowered its full-year outlook citing continued weakness in Asia travel retail and in mainland China.
Lumen Technologies shares are down 5.5% after the wireline telecommunications company reported third-quarter results that are seen as mixed.
MasTec tumbles about 16% after the infrastructure construction firm cut its year profit and revenue forecast.
Match Group slumps 9% after the dating-app firm provided fourth-quarter revenue guidance that didn’t meet consensus expectations.
Paycom Software tumbles 37% after the employment software company slashed its full-year forecast.
Wayfair drops 13% after posting 3Q results.
WeWork shares fall 35% following a report in the Wall Street Journal that the company plans to file for bankruptcy.
Yum China drops 12% after the restaurant operator reported third-quarter comparable sales that fell short of estimates.
Turning to today’s main event, in what will be a mostly nothingburger event (see preview here), the Fed is expected to hold rates steady at a 22-year high for a second meeting, while leaving open the possibility of another hike as soon as December with economic growth staying resilient. The recent surge in US Treasury yields has contributed to a tightening of financial conditions, which according to Goldman is the equivalent of as many as 4 additional rate hikes…
… leading even hawkish Federal Open Market Committee members to indicate patience over further rate moves.
“The Nov. 1 FOMC meeting has little drama attached to it. Very little is priced in and we do not expect the Fed to surprise,” Steven Englander, head of global G-10 FX research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, wrote in a note. “The big question is how much of the yield increase at the long end of the curve reflects changed expectations on growth and how much can be viewed as restraining growth down the road.”
Separately, turning to the day’s “other” big event, the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement, bond dealers are expecting the Treasury to unveil another round of increases this week to its note and bond auctions, though a sizable minority forecast the department will slow the pace of growth to avoid jolting yields higher.
European stocks have fared slightly better meanwhile, with the Stoxx 600 little changed. Retail, insurance and health care are the best performing sectors. European retailers outperformed the broader market, led by Next Plc as it increased its profit guidance. Orsted A/S plunged 22% after taking a $4 billion hit on abandoned US wind projects. Here are the most notable European movers:
GSK shares rise as much as 3.3%, after the pharmaceutical company increased its outlook for the second time this year, helped by its vaccine to prevent a common respiratory virus in adults
Next shares jump as much as 3.8% after the clothing retailer boosted its pretax profit guidance for the full year, meeting consensus expectations. Analysts said the update was better than expected
Barry Callebaut rises as much as 4.5%, with full-year results for the chocolate maker seen broadly in line. The company’s medium-term guidance aspirations are, however, described as “uninspiring” by ZKB
Smurfit Kappa shares were up as much as 3.7% on the Irish stock exchange Wednesday as the paper packaging company reported that its order books were improving
BP falls as much as 2.8% as JPMorgan cuts to underweight, flagging potential for further impairment in offshore wind business and weakening momentum in share buybacks
Orsted shares slide as much as 22% in Copenhagen after the company drops the development of two US wind projects, recording impairment charges significantly above its previous predictions in the latest blow to the struggling industry
Wolters Kluwer falls as much as 4.8%, the most since May, after nine-month results showed organic growth slowed in the third quarter from first-half levels
Skanska falls as much as 13%, after the Swedish construction and property development group reported third-quarter sales heavily impacted by weak margins, significant impairments and an uncertain outlook
Segro drops as much as 4%, the worst performer on the Stoxx 600 real estate index on Wednesday, after Goldman cuts the warehouse landlord to sell, saying balance sheet constraints are set to cap its near-term earnings growth
Iveco shares fall as much as 8%, the most in 16 months, after the Italian commercial vehicle manufacturer’s free-cash-flow missed estimates
Aston Martin shares fall as much as 18% after the British automaker lowered its outlook as supply-chain issues weighed on its new DB12 sports car output. Oddo calls the results “weak”
Asos shares slide as much as 11% after FY24 revenue guidance was meaningfully below consensus expectations as the the online fashion retailer focuses on clearing inventory in what is seen as a reset year
Earlier in the session, Asian equities rose ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, led by Japanese stocks after the Bank of Japan maintained its negative-rate policy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.1%, on track for its first gain in three sessions. Chinese shares were flat. Japan’s markets endured another day of turbulence as authorities fired verbal warnings on the yen and stepped into the bond market. In the end, Japan’s stocks climbed more than 2% on relief over ultra-low borrowing costs and a weak yen. Industrial and consumer discretionary shares led sectoral gains in the region.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were cautious as Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data followed suit to the recent deterioration seen in the official release and amid some disappointment after the PBoC’s open market operations resulted in a net daily drain despite prior reports that the central bank is likely to add further liquidity.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was the biggest gainer amid reports that Japan’s new economic package is to total around JPY 17tln and after recent currency weakness in the aftermath of the BoJ’s modest YCC tweak.
Australia’s ASX 200 was positive as outperformance in the mining and real estate sectors picked up the slack from defensives and helped shrug off the surprise contraction in building approvals data.
Indian stocks dropped for a second day, side-stepping gains in most Asian markets, led by a selloff in technology companies and lenders. The S&P BSE Sensex declined 0.4% to 63,591.33 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index lost 0.5% to 18,989.15. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 1%. Technology and banks stocks, which make up about half of the benchmarks, were among the leading sectoral losers. The BSE Bankex fell 0.4%, while BSE IT was down 0.8%.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 0.1% as markets braced for the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady. The yen is stronger after some government jawboning earlier on Wednesday, rising 0.3% versus the greenback. The euro drops 0.3%.
USD/JPY dropped as much as 0.4% to 151.14 after Japan’s top currency official Masato Kanda warned authorities are on standby to intervene if needed
NZD/USD fell as much as 0.6% to 0.5789 after New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to a two-year high; AUD/USD reversed declines to rise 0.1% to 0.6343 after China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in October
GBP/USD dipped 0.1% to 1.2142 after UK house prices unexpectedly rose the most in over a year
In rates, treasury futures are near top of day’s range, with yields lower by 2bp to 3bp across the curve, unwinding portion of late Tuesday selloff around the 4 p.m. New York-time close. US 10-year borrowing costs fall 3bps to 4.89%; steepening of 5s30s extends through Tuesday session highs ahead of the 8:30 a.m. New York time Treasury announcement of details of quarterly debt refunding. US session focus also on data with ADP employment change, manufacturing PMI and JOLTS due, ahead of the Fed rate decision. US yields richer by 2bp to 3bp across the curve, with spreads broadly within one basis point of Monday session close; small steepening move added into 5s30s, takes spread through Tuesday highs and peaking through 24bp; 10-year yields around 4.90%, outperforming bunds and gilts by 5bp and 7bp in the sector
In commodities, oil climbed after slumping in the first two days of the week, as a still-contained Israel-Hamas war shifted attention to global demand. WTI rose 1.1% to trade near $82. Spot gold is flat.
Bitcoin was a touch softer on the session perhaps given some modest USD strength but generally BTC is fairly contained and exhibiting similar price action to the broader market which is moving into a pre-FOMC/Quarterly Refunding tone.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. We’ll also get the US Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement. On the data side, we’ll get the global manufacturing PMIs for October, as well as the ISM manufacturing print from the US. Elsewhere in the US, we’ll get the JOLTS report for September, and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for October. Finally, today’s earnings releases include AIG and Airbnb.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,200.75
MXAP up 1.0% to 152.20
MXAPJ little changed at 472.28
Nikkei up 2.4% to 31,601.65
Topix up 2.5% to 2,310.68
Hang Seng Index little changed at 17,101.78
Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,023.08
Sensex down 0.3% to 63,679.06
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 6,838.31
Kospi up 1.0% to 2,301.56
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 434.52
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.84%
Euro down 0.2% to $1.0558
Brent Futures up 0.6% to $85.51/bbl
Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,978.82
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.13% to 106.80
Top Overnight News
The BOJ intervened in the government bond market on Wednesday to rein in a jump in yields to fresh decade highs, underlining the challenge for the central bank a day after loosening its grip on long-term interest rates. The battered yen recovered some ground on threats of intervention from Japanese authorities, and as investors shifted focus to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later in the day. RTRS
China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI falls short in Oct, coming in at 49.5 (down from 50.6 in Sept and below the Street’s 50.8 forecast). BBG
The House of Representatives China committee will introduce a bill on Wednesday that would ban the US government from buying Chinese drones, in a bid to bolster a Senate push after past efforts were derailed by lobbying. FT
The EU’s stores of natural gas are nearing full capacity, leading the bloc’s energy companies to park excess reserves in Ukraine ahead of the peak demand of the winter months. According to figures from Gas Infrastructure Europe, the EU’s chambers are now almost 99% full, surpassing Brussels’ target of 90% of storage capacity by November. FT
Egyptian television has broadcast images of people leaving Gaza after a deal to allow the critically wounded out of the enclave for the first time since the start of the Israel Hamas war three weeks ago. FT
The US and Israel are exploring options for the future of the Gaza Strip, including the possibility of a multinational force that may involve American troops if Israeli forces succeed in ousting Hamas, people familiar with the matter said. RTRS
Fed officials appear to have signaled that they will not be hiking at their November meeting this week. We interpret their recent comments, recapped in our latest Fed Chatterbox, to imply that most would prefer not to hike again, consistent with our forecast that the FOMC will hold the funds rate at 5.25-5.5% until late next year. The market is pricing very little chance of a hike this week and only a roughly 20% probability of a hike at the December meeting. GIR
Two Sigma plans to spin out its PE impact-investing unit amid internal discontent after its inaugural fund raised less than its target, people familiar said. BBG
Central banks in G10 countries have stopped hiking rates (for the most part), but all have adopted a “higher for longer” outlook. RTRS
Private credit’s success is creating a $500 billion headache: finding a home for all the money that’s been raised. Fund managers potentially lost out on more than $7 billion of lending deals in less than 48 hours this week, highlighting the difficulties they face in allocating billions of dollars of dry powder following the industry’s rapid expansion. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Nwesquawk
APAC stocks traded predominantly higher albeit with upside capped for some indices heading into the FOMC announcement and as the region digested another deluge of data releases including disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI which printed its first contraction in three months. ASX 200 was positive as outperformance in the mining and real estate sectors picked up the slack from defensives and helped shrug off the surprise contraction in building approvals data. Nikkei 225 was the biggest gainer amid reports that Japan’s new economic package is to total around JPY 17tln and after recent currency weakness in the aftermath of the BoJ’s modest YCC tweak. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were cautious as Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data followed suit to the recent deterioration seen in the official release and amid some disappointment after the PBoC’s open market operations resulted in a net daily drain despite prior reports that the central bank is likely to add further liquidity.
Top Asian News
White House said US President Biden is aiming to have a constructive conversation with Chinese President Xi in San Francisco in November.
Japan’s government is considering spending over JPY 17tln for a package of measures to ease the pain from rising inflation and will compile a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year of around JPY 13.1tln to fund part of the package, according to a draft cited by Reuters.
Total size of Japan’s economic package is expected to be around JPY 37.4tln, according to Jiji News.
European bourses are little changed on the session with cash picking up from a softer open while futures have deteriorated slightly, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%. Sectors are being dictated by earnings updates with Retail outperforming post-Next while Health Care benefits from GSK. At the other end of the spectrum, Media lags after Wolters Kluwer though Utilities are not far behind given pronounced losses in Orsted. Stateside, futures are in the red with specifics slim ahead of the FOMC and Quarterly Refunding, ES -0.3% & NQ -0.4%; preview and primer respectively available for both events. Following those Tier 1 events, after-market earnings include QCOM ABNB, ABNB, MDLZ, MET & PYPL.
Top European News
The Times’ Shadow MPC voted 7-2 in favour of keeping rates on hold.
FX
Greenback grinds higher ahead of Fed and packed agenda in the lead up, DXY eclipses month end high within 106.89-64 range.
Yen claws back post-BoJ losses with the aid of more audible verbal intervention, USD/JPY retreats from 151.70 to 151.15 at one stage.
Euro probes semi-round number support at 1.0550 vs Dollar after losing 1.0600+ status.
Kiwi labours after weaker than forecast NZ jobs and labour cost metrics, NZD/USD drifts down from 0.5827 to sub-0.5800 and AUD/NZD cross pops back above 1.0900.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1778 vs exp. 7.3327 (prev. 7.1779)
Japan’s top currency diplomat Kanda said speculative FX moves seen cannot be explained by fundamentals and he is concerned that one-sided, sharp FX moves negatively affect the economy, while he added that authorities may or may not say when they conduct intervene, according to Reuters.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno said it is important for FX to move stably reflecting economic fundamentals and rapid FX moves are undesirable, while he won’t rule out any steps to respond to disorderly FX moves.
Fixed Income
Bonds remain cautious in advance of the FOMC, but pare some declines as broad risk sentiment waivers.
Bunds, Gilts and T-note meander between 128.42-75, 92.63-91 and 105-27+/106-03 + parameters.
2028 UK issuance reasonably well received on the eve of the BoE and 7 year German supply may go well given current concession.
Commodities
Commodities have, broadly speaking, spent the bulk of the European morning fairly contained with fresh catalysts limited ahead of a particularly busy US agenda headlined by Quarterly Refunding & the FOMC.
The sessions current peaks of USD 82.26/bbl and USD 86.22/bbl for WTI Dec’23 and Brent Jan’24 respectively printed in the wake of remarks from Iran’s Supreme Leader.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei says Muslim countries should stop exporting oil and food to Israel, via Tasnim. Echoes recent remarks. For instance, on October 18th Khamenei called for for its neighbouring nations to impose an oil embargo on Israel alongside the expulsion of Israeli ambassadors.
US Private Energy Inventories (bbls): Crude +1.3mln (exp. +1.3mln), Gasoline -0.4mln (exp. -0.8mln), Distillates -2.5mln (exp. -1.5mln), Cushing +0.4mln.
Russian oil exports from the Black Sea port of Tuapse planned at 1.103mln/T in November (1.142mln/T in October), via Reuters citing traders.
Spot gold is essentially unchanged and around recent levels ahead of the packed docket while base metals have a modest negative bias, following suit to the broader risk tone from an equity perspective and in the wake of disappointing Chinese PMIs.
Geopolitics
US Secretary of State Blinken is to travel to Israel on Friday to meet with the Israeli government and will make other stops in the region, according to the State Department. Furthermore, Blinken held a call with Israel’s President and emphasised the need to take precautions to minimise the harm to civilians.
US Pentagon said an additional 300 US troops will be heading to the Middle East but will not be going to Israel.
Chilean President Boric said Chile recalled its ambassador to Israel for consultations given Israel’s ‘violations of international humanitarian law’ in the Gaza Strip, according to Reuters.
Iranian Defense Minister says they will unveil a new long-range defense system in a couple of weeks, via IranNuances.
The Rafah border crossing has opened from Gaza into Egypt; for humanitarian purposes to allow the transit of foreign nationals and those with severe injuries.
US Event Calendar
07:00: Oct. MBA Mortgage Applications -2.1%, prior -1.0%
08:15: Oct. ADP Employment Change, est. 150,000, prior 89,000
09:45: Oct. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 50.0, prior 50.0
10:00: Oct. ISM Employment, est. 50.6, prior 51.2
10:00: Sept. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 9.4m, prior 9.61m
10:00: Sept. Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.5%
10:00: Oct. ISM Manufacturing, est. 49.0, prior 49.0
14:00: Nov. FOMC Rate Decision
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Hopefully you’ve all survived Halloween without too many tricks. My best trick was to miss trick or treating with the family on a wet night as I got home too late from work. There is absolutely no truth to the rumor that I hid in the bushes outside our house until they’d left to avoid attending.
Given the time of year its apt to say it was a slightly scary month for markets. Henry will shortly be releasing our performance review covering how different financial assets fared over October. Overall, it was another weak month for markets, with the main story being the attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7. However, we also had a fresh round of strong US data and further rises in long-term borrowing costs, with US Treasuries losing ground for a 6th consecutive month. Equities didn’t do well either, with the S&P 500 down for a 3rd month in a row for the first time since the pandemic turmoil of March 2020. See the full report in your inboxes shortly.
With October out of the way, attention will now turn to a couple of important events in the US today. First up, there’s the Treasury’s quarterly refunding statement, which goes over how they plan to fund their borrowing needs, including the plan for bond auctions over the months ahead. Normally this doesn’t get too much attention but given the massive runup in rates over recent months, especially since the last refunding announcement, the concern is that any surprises could help push long-dated yields even higher, although this risk will be much better priced now than it was in August. Our US rates strategist Steven Zeng has a preview of the refunding announcement here, and his view is that the Treasury will be responsive to the recent market move. The coupon size forecast sees a similar cadence of increases as announced in August, but with a slight tapering among 10yr to 30yr maturities.
That Treasury announcement is expected at 12:30 London time, but later on at 18:00 London we’ve then got the latest policy decision from the Federal Reserve. At this meeting, they’re widely expected to keep rates unchanged, so our US economists write in their preview (here) that the focus will be on any guidance Chair Powell has to offer in his press conference. They think Powell is likely to reiterate that the FOMC can “proceed carefully” on upcoming decisions. But since the last meeting, there’s been a strong payrolls number and core CPI was at a 5-month high in September, so it’ll be interesting to see how that might be shaping their thinking. Shortly before the meeting, we’ll also get the latest JOLTS report that features job openings and the quits rate, which is a good barometer for how tight the labour market is.
Ahead of the important refunding and FOMC day, Treasuries had rallied for much of the yesterday, with the 10yr yield trading 8bps lower early on shortly before the US data releases. However, bonds sold off from there. A 6bp rise in final 90 minutes of trading, likely reflecting month-end flows, left 10yr yields +3.7bps higher on the day at 4.93%. The 2yr yield rose +3.4bps to 5.09%, with the recent run of curve steepening that left the 2s10s at its steepest in a year on Monday taking a pause.
The initial turn from the intra-day yield lows came with the Employment Cost Index data for Q3, which surprised slightly on the upside at +1.1% (vs. +1.0% expected) and was up a tenth from the Q2 number. Conversely, the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence release struck a more dovish tone, which fell to a 5-month low of 102.6 in October (vs. 100.5 expected). Furthermore, the present situation component fell to an 11-month low of 143.1.
For equities, the picture was pretty positive ahead of the Fed today, with the S&P 500 seeing a +0.65% advance and climbing for a second day after a run of 8 days out of 9 in negative territory. As on Monday, the gains were broad-based ones, with all 24 industry groups in the S&P 500 up on the day. Banks (+1.42%) were among the outperformers, while the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.91%) saw a further recovery after its recent lows on Friday. By contrast, the megacap tech stocks were one of the weaker performers yesterday, with the Magnificent Seven up a marginal +0.10%. Nvidia traded nearly -5% lower early on, down to its lowest level since June intra-day, before recovering to close down -0.93%.
In Europe, the main news yesterday was on the economic side, with the latest data offering more downside surprises in the European inflation numbers. In particular, the flash CPI release for the Euro Area fell to just 2.9% in October (vs 3.1% expected), which was the lowest since July 2021, and a big fall from its 10.7% rate at the same point in 2022. Core inflation also fell back to 4.2%, but that’s proven much stickier than the headline number, which is now being pushed down by the -11.1% decline in energy prices over the last year.
The other important story from the Euro Area was the initial look at Q3 growth, which unexpectedly showed a -0.1% contraction (vs. unch expected). To be fair it wasn’t all bad news, since the Q2 number was revised up a tenth to show a +0.2% expansion, but this was still the worst quarterly performance for the Euro Area since Q2 2020 at the height of the pandemic. In response to the data, especially the inflation downside, our European economists have shifted their expectation of the first ECB rate cut from Sep-24 to Jun-24. While they continue to see cuts playing out at a pace of 25bp per quarter thereafter, they see risks skewed towards a faster pace of easing. See their update here.
Markets also responded by slightly moving forward expectations of ECB rate cuts next year. While a full 25bp rate cut continues to be priced by next June, the chances of a cut by March rose to 36%, from 33% on Monday and 23% as of Friday (prior to some of the country inflation prints). Sovereign bonds mostly rallied across the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.6bps), OATs (-0.7bps) and BTPs (-1.0bps) all moving lower.
Staying in Europe, the STOXX 600 saw a +0.59% rise yesterday but the picture was much more divergent by country. The UK FTSE 100 was down -0.08%, weighed upon by its large share of energy and materials stocks which underperformed. However, the German DAX was up +0.64%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB up +1.47%.
Overnight in Asia, the BoJ announced an unscheduled bond purchase program to curb the rise in yields after the BoJ decision to loosen its grip on YCC the previous morning. In the announcement, the central bank stated it will buy 300 billion yen of 5-to-10-year debt and 100 billion yen of 3-to-5-year securities. The decision comes as the 10yr yield on Japanese government bonds reaches its highest level since 2012 at 0.956%, as I type, up +2.2bps.
The Japanese yen hit a 33-year low after the BoJ decision the previous morning, but has rallied +0.3% this morning after comments from Japan’s chief currency official Kanda, who stated that Japan is “on standby” to counter volatility in the exchange rate. Kanda also highlighted that “speculation [was] the biggest factor behind recent foreign exchange moves”, and not fundamentals. Against this backdrop, the Nikkei 225 is trading up +2.14% this morning.
In other news this morning, the Chinese October Caixin manufacturing PMI disappointed at 49.5 (vs 50.8 expected), slipping from 50.6 into mildly contractionary territory. The Shanghai Comp and CSI 300 dropped initially on the result, before paring back losses, and are trading modestly up at +0.16% and +0.05% respectively as I type. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng is down -0.09%, and elsewhere in Asia, the Korean Kospi is trading up +0.91%. S&P 500 futures are trading down -0.23% and Treasury yields have dipped back -1.3bps across the curve with a flattening bias.
Finally, in other notable US data prints yesterday, the FHFA’s house price index was up by +0.6% in August (vs. +0.5% expected), and the MNI Chicago PMI fell to 44.0 (vs. 45.0 expected).
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. We’ll also get the US Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement. On the data side, we’ll get the global manufacturing PMIs for October, as well as the ISM manufacturing print from the US. Elsewhere in the US, we’ll get the JOLTS report for September, and the ADP’s report of private payrolls for October. Finally, today’s earnings releases include AIG and Airbnb.
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.31 PTS OR 0.14% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 10.70 PTS OR 0.06% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 742.80 PTS OR 2.40% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.82 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.3190 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3370 /Oil DOWN TO 82.38 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 86.35/ Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
//NORTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
end
3 CHINA
THE true state of affairs inside China, economically
In the midst of widespread economic duress and growing social disruption, following the money trail shows how Chinese investors are voting with their wallets.
Consumer spending is down, and the savings rate is up.
Capital is flowing out of China any way it can, and it all amounts to a definite no-confidence vote for Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
The CCP Tries to Hide the Facts
In true CCP fashion, the state puts the blame for its failed policies on those who point them out. Anyone who mentions the crumbling economy, for example, is guilty of creating “financial stability.” Even though the CCP would consider prosecuting journalists and economists who report accurately about the falling employment numbers and the high debt levels that plague local governments, China’s worsening economic conditions are too dramatic and widespread to hide.
Of course, financial stability isn’t threatened by people talking about it. It’s the CCP that’s destroying the economy. Even recent history shows that the less involved the Party is in the economy, the better it performs.
The property market and the development sector are perfect examples, though not the only ones. Both continue to be heavily manipulated by the CCP, and both are hemorrhaging value, as financial ruin in flagship companies such as Evergrande and Country Garden contribute to deteriorating conditions in the wider economy. Completed projects that remain unsold are being demolished, work on existing projects is being halted, and other development plans are being canceled, even as the development companies owe billions to creditors.
More Than a Cyclical Downturn
The reality of what’s happening is starting to dawn on the Chinese. Many understand that the current trend is much more than a cyclical downturn, which is typical of capitalist economies. Growth in the second quarter of 2023 was reported to be only 0.8 percent. Still, that statistic is hardly trustworthy in a country that runs on graft and political favors and routinely fudges the numbers. The reported third-quarter gain of 4.9 percent is touted but not believable, given the real estate collapse, falling consumer spending, and lower exports.
Meanwhile, individual investors, mostly from the middle class—who put their life savings into properties that aren’t even built and likely won’t ever be built—are seeing their wealth evaporate before their eyes as valuations crater.
This stagnation is primarily due to two factors: internal policies and external ones. Internally, an economy based on graft and corruption rather than one based on market signals—such as the price mechanism that allocates resources and assets where they’re most needed in the economy—can’t sustain itself. Thus, turning profitable private enterprises into debt-ridden state-owned enterprises, which is a euphemism for confiscation by the CCP, has destroyed entrepreneurship—the economic engine of China.
Add to that the CCP’s fundamental shift from economic growth to internal security and stability. It’s a vicious cycle wherein more Party control results in less economic activity, financial duress, and civil discontent. The Party then doubles down on more state control and more oppression.
In short, the Party is more concerned with maintaining its grip on power than it is with growing the economy or supporting the middle class.
Companies Are Fleeing ‘Uninvestible’ China
But there are external factors, or consequences, as well.
Over the past year, the flight of Western manufacturers out of China has accelerated. American and European firms are seeing the writing on the wall. They see the world’s growing disenchantment with Beijing’s trade and foreign policies, with many anticipating a decline in economic stability and a greater degree of decoupling from China in the foreseeable future. As a result, they’re relocating their operations out of China to friendlier nations.
‘Friendshoring’ Making Things Worse
This trend is known as “friendshoring.” In essence, countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, India, and Mexico are capturing companies exiting China. They offer less political risk, friendlier trade policies, lower labor costs, and are closer to markets. Barring any major shifts in Chinese leadership, companies leaving China are unlikely to return, which is a growing economic and financial gap for the CCP to fill.
Other symptoms of the collapse are evident, such as the soaring unemployment rate for young people. It is now a reported 20 percent, but counting those who live with their parents for financial reasons, it’s likely approaching 50 percent. Underemployment makes that picture even worse, which is leading to an angry younger generation. Disaffected youth who see no good options for a better future can be a volatile force to reckon with.
The Race to Exit Chinese Real Estate
All of these reasons and others are why some wealthy Chinese have been selling their China properties as quickly as they can. They’re desperately trying to move their money out of China and invest abroad before the value of their Chinese real estate holdings loses even more value. They know the trajectory of the Chinese economy and want out.
Many are buying real estate in Japan.
It’s not just proximity attracting Chinese investors to Japanese real estate, although that is a significant factor. Another enticement is that owning real estate (or a profitable business) in Japan can lead to long-term or even permanent residency visas. That gives Chinese investors an easy way out of the country to avoid the coming meltdown, as well as avoiding the iron hand of the CCP.
The “China miracle” is no more.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.
end
KEVIN W TO US:
China firm launches stock indices to tap into rush for safe-haven gold
FYI
China’s biggest index provider launched on Wednesday two gold-linked stock indices to cash in on surging demand for exposure to the safe-haven metal amid a slump in the local real estate market and volatile global markets.
The new indexes, launched by the China Securities Index Co, include shares of global gold miners such as Newmont Corporation and Barrick Gold.
German defense chief says public must get used to the possibility of war in Europe. The war with Ukraine was totally nuts
(zerohedge)
German Defense Chief Says Public Must Get Used To Possibility Of ‘War In Europe’
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 04:15 AM
Starting last month, top Ukrainian officials began pushing an alarmist narrative that “world war 3 has already begun” – as the head Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Aleksey Danilov had claimed in early September. The words were spoken after it became clear that Ukraine’s military was losing, and now Time magazine has confirmed the military doesn’t have the manpower to fight off the Russians. Naturally, Kiev must find new ways to draw in more direct support of key European powers.
“If somebody thinks that World War III hasn’t started then it’s a huge mistake. It has already begun. It had been underway in a hybrid period for some time and has now entered an active phase,” Danilov said before the Kiev Security Forum at the time (early Sept). More than a month later, some European leaders have begun to echo the same warning.
“We have to get used to the idea that there may be a threat of war in Europe,” he said in the national broadcast interview. “Germany must be able to defend itself. We must be prepared for war.”
He was responding to questions related to Germany being slow to rearmament itself in the wake of the Russian war in Ukraine, and now with the prospect of the Gaza-Israel conflict spilling over into broader Mideast regional war:
He believes that the conflict in the Middle East and Russia’s war against Ukraine shall have consequences for German society. In particular, Germany must be able to defend itself, and this applies to both the Bundeswehr and society.
“We have to become capable of fighting,” Pistorius said.
“Unfortunately, everything that has been spoiled for 30 years cannot be fixed in 19 months,” Pistorius admitted in the fresh remarks. But he still pushed back against the critics:
Pistorius rejected accusations that the federal government was too slow to react to the so-called turning point. He stressed that not only had a €100 billion special fund for the Bundeswehr been set up, but that state bodies had also been changed.
Germany has meanwhile been among those western powers which see conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe as related, with Russia being a prime bad actor exacerbating tensions (the Kremlin has in turn said the same thing about the West, and the US in particular).
On Monday, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg claimed that President Vladimir Putin is taking joy in the crisis in the Middle East. “We can see that the Russian president is certainly happy, given the situation in the Middle East. That is why we are looking at Ukraine even more closely than we have done in the past,” she said.
Zelensky too has expressed increased concern that world powers have taken their eye off the ball as they focus on events in Gaza. But Defense Minister Pistorius has along with Baerbock sought to assure the Ukrainians that Berlin will not lessen its support to Kiev based on the Israel-Gaza conflict.
A fresh segment on Russian TV wherein popular pundits threaten war on Germany:
Meanwhile, Germany’s new ‘turn’ toward rebuilding its military could helping drive new populist politicians’ efforts at curtailing this new expanse of Berlin’s reviving military-industrial complex:
Wagenknecht’s politics clearly resonate with the German public. A recent survey of German voters found that 14% would vote for a Wagenknecht party, putting it just one point behind the governing Social Democrats (SPD) and two points ahead of the Green party. It speaks to the breadth of Wagenknecht’s coalition that, if initial polls are to be believed, she would take votes not only from her own former political home, but also from the centre-right CDU, the left-leaning Greens and the pro-business FDP. Most of all, though, Wagenknecht is trying to appeal to a section of AfD voters. Much of the party’s success in recent elections, she claims, comes from Germans who “don’t vote for the AfD because they’re rightwing. They vote for the AfD because they’re angry.” Wagenknecht’s attempts to siphon off the AfD’s protest voters currently seems like the only viable plan to mitigate the far-right party’s electoral success.
Far left and far right movements in Germany, and broadly in Europe remain distrustful of increased military spending, especially accompanied by politicians’ pleas for society to “prepare for war” – while silencing voices which seek ceasefire and a diplomatic offramp.
end
UK//PALESTINIANS INSIDE UK
AND YOU WANT THESE PEOPLE IN YOUR COUNTRY?
Watch: Pro-Palestinian Activists Throw Box Of Live Rats Into British McDonald’s
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 05:45 AM
Pro-Palestinian activists in the west (many of them far-leftists with no ties to Palestinians or Muslim culture) have called for boycotts and punishment directed at any major companies seen as providing aid to Israel.
McDonald’s angered the woke mob recently with its offer of free food to members of the Israeli military (McDonald’s also gave $1 million to the Red Cross and the World Food Program providing aid to Palestinians), while Starbucks and Google have triggered their wrath as well.
Given that woke activism has been on the decline in terms of effectiveness and many in the public have taken to ignoring their demands, protesters are changing their tactics in some bizarre ways.
Customers were waiting for meals at the McDonald’s branch at the Star City leisure complex in Birmingham as an activist threw a box of what appear to be rats into the building.
The rats were spray painted the colors of the Palestinian flag…
Polish truckers believe that relaxed regulations towards non-EU registered HGVs have given Ukrainian companies the edge over Poles…
Polish truckers are threatening to block all border crossings with Ukraine starting in November due to excessive competition after the liberalization of international transport between Ukraine and the European Union.
From November, Polish truckers will initiate protests and blockades at the Ukrainian border crossings in a move that threatens to disrupt border traffic potentially until the end of the year.
The announcement was made on social media by “Ukravtoprom,” the Association of Motor Vehicle Producers of Ukraine, citing the International Transport Association of Ukraine.
“The protest action is planned for a period of two months. The reason for the protests is the excessive competition after the liberalization of international transport between Ukraine and EU countries,” the message read.
Polish truckers argue that relaxed regulations towards non-EU registered HGVs have given Ukrainian companies the edge over Poles, experts from the International Transport Association of Ukraine revealed.
Update on the blast on Gaza’s refugee camp. The goal was to get a top Hamas commander. Unfortunately many Gazan civilians died in that rocket fire
(zerohedge)
‘Hundreds’ Wounded & Dead After Israel Strikes Refugee Camp In Gaza, IDF Spox Shrugs Off Civilian Deaths
TUESDAY, OCT 31, 2023 – 04:30 PM
Update(1630ET): There’s been more confirmation of the Israeli airstrikes on a densely populated refugee camp in Jabaliya neighborhood, which lies north of Gaza City. Israel’s military has owned up to it, saying an important senior Hamas commander who helped plan the Oct.7 terror attack was eliminated. Al Jazeera is citing health sources at the nearby “Indonesian Hospital” to say that at least 50 Palestinians have been killed, mostly civilians, and that number is expected to rise. “Hundreds” are said to have been injured and killed in the attack, per Sky News.
But when an IDF spokesman was pressed by CNN’s Wolf Blitzer over why Israel chose to attack even while knowing hundreds of civilians were there, he essentially explained that eliminating the Hamas commander was more important than safeguarding civilian lives (see exchange below). The New York Times has detailed of the massive strikes on the neighborhood area and refugee camp:
The Gaza Health Ministry, which is controlled by Hamas, said the Israeli strikes killed and wounded “hundreds” of people in the Jabaliya neighborhood, a statement that could not be immediately verified. A doctor at a nearby hospital said the facility was receiving hundreds of injured and that dozens were dead.
Israel’s military said in a statement that its fighter jets, in a “wide-scale” attack, had struck Hamas militants, including a commander who helped plan the Oct. 7 massacre that left 1,400 people dead, mostly civilians.
“His elimination was carried out as part of a wide-scale strike on terrorists and terror infrastructure belonging to the Central Jabaliya Battalion, which had taken control over civilian buildings in Gaza City,” the military said.
It reiterated a warning for Gazans to evacuate south, a call that came as Israeli ground troops and tanks pushed deeper into the Gaza Strip and were edging closer to the territory’s main city. More than half the population of two million people has been displaced since Israel expanded a blockade of the enclave in response to Hamas attacks that killed 1,400 people.
World Health Organization head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has said the loss of life in Gaza is reaching “staggering” numbers. He stated, “The number of civilian casualties in Gaza is staggering. The limited aid flow is a mere trickle of the growing needs. Without urgent, unrestricted access at scale, tragedy will continue unfolding before our eyes,” he emphasized.
The White House has continued to reject calls for a ceasefire, in support of its Middle East partner Israel. However, the bad optics of the IDF’s spokesman essentially shrugging off mass civilian death when pressed by Wolf Blitzer will only serve to increase the international pressure. When its not Putin or Assad doing it, it must be ‘okay’… the message to the globe seems to be from Washington and the Western allies.
Pressure mounting on Israel, and no doubt the White House as Gaza deaths soar past 8,500
* * *
Update(1323ET): Israel has admitted that this war will be long and costly, including in human lives on both sides. It has announced what the IDF says are its first troop casualties of the Gaza campaign which are being publicly disclosed by the military (there could be more that aren’t publicly disclosed). Per Israeli media citing the Tuesday words of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant:
There are battles against the forces that are operating [in Gaza] and the results and achievements on the battlefield are very high,” he says.
“Unfortunately, in war, there are also prices, and the prices in the last day were heavy prices,” Gallant continues.
“Despite that, we are also determined to continue and win,” he adds.
The IDF has said that two soldiers were killed and two seriously injured in fierce fighting in Gaza today and that “numerous” terrorists were killed.
More tanks have been observed pouring into northern Gaza, as the scale of the operation continues to grow by the day.
Missile fire and artillery exchanges have also continued on Israel’s northern border, where Hezbollah has been claiming successful anti-tank operations.
A mass casualty event is also being widely reported after Israeli airstrikes flattened Jabalia refugee camp, as WSJ details based on eyewitness accounts:
Explosions rocked a densely populated area north of Gaza City on Tuesday, flattening whole housing blocs, leaving deep craters and sending hundreds of casualties to a hospital, where officials said there were scores of dead.
The blasts hit the Jabalia refugee camp, where the Israeli military has been conducting frequent airstrikes as its ground offensive to topple Hamas picks up speed. Hamas-led health authorities said the bombs were Israeli airstrikes that had left hundreds dead and injured. The Israeli military said it was checking reports of strikes in that area.
Video footage aired by Palestinian television networks and Al Jazeera showed hundreds of people digging through the rubble with their hands to extract bodies and survivors, many of them children.
A local hospital has saidat least 50 people were killed in the blasts but expects the death toll to rise as more casualties come in.
A rare exchange for American MSM:
end
More updates:
Israeli Army Suffers More Casualties As Hamas Publishes Video Showing Tanks Blown Up
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 01:18 PM
Update(1318ET): The Israeli death toll is rising, and Hamas has claimed to have ambushed and destroyed several tanks as they plunge deeper into Gaza City, also amid building to building searches for the hostages.
15 Israeli soldiers have now been killed in the Gaza operation, the IDF has announced Wednesday, which in total marks 320 total troops killed since the Oct. 7th massacre (and with over 1,100 more Israeli and foreign civilians).
Widely circulating footage shows Knesset members crying after a closed-door session (below), leading to speculation that Israeli troops could be sustaining higher than known casualty rates.
But the emotional scene is reportedly due to a special viewing in parliament of newly compiled footage of the Oct.7 terror attacks, as The Times of Israeldetails:
A compilation of raw footage documenting Hamas’s grisly October 7 rampage through the western Negev was screened Wednesday for Knesset members. The 43-minute-long video was produced by the IDF Spokesperson’s Office and shows uncensored, difficult-to-watch videos, many taken from terrorists’ bodycams.
After a request from Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana to the military, lawmakers were granted permission to hold a closed-door screening of the footage where recording and cellphones were not allowed.
Ohana, speaking before the screening, said that he had arranged the event so that Israeli lawmakers would “know who and what we are facing,” and so that “we will all know how much our path in this war against this evil is justified,” according to sources familiar with the event.
…More than 50 MKs were in attendance, and some broke down in tears, including Ra’am head Mansour Abbas, the Maariv news outlet reported.
* * *
GAZA
Gazans Face ‘Daunting’ Task Of Finding Water As Bombs Fall, Disease Spreading
Weeks after Israel followed through with its threat to cut water supplies to Gaza, Palestinians living in the besieged territory are struggling to survive without the basic necessities. Residents of the area currently being bombarded by Israeli warplanes told Middle East Eye that obtaining water has become a “daily ordeal”, and they fear the spread of disease with a number of residents already dealing with stomach ailments and other illnesses.
Israel cut off water supply to Gaza shortly after the October 7 attack by Hamas-led Palestinian fighters on southern Israel. During the attack, around 1,400 Israelis died and more than 220 were taken captive. At least 8,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s retaliation for the assault. Israeli authorities conditioned the resumption of water supplies on the return of the hostages, but has also attacked other means of water delivery and sewage treatment in the territory, such as desalination plants.A man in Gaza sells water in tanks carried from donkey-drawn carts on 30 October, AFP.
“Our access to water, be it for drinking or cleaning, has diminished significantly. The quest for even a modest amount of fresh water has become a daily ordeal,” said Osama al-Baz, a displaced Palestinian in Gaza. Baz’s family were forced to leave their home in northern Gaza on October 13 after Israel warned civilians living there that they were not safe.
They now live with friends in the south of the region, where they are part of a group of 20, including several elderly people and six young children. Calling Israel’s policies a form of “collective punishment”, Baz said getting “basic necessities such as water and food has become a daunting task”.
“On the few occasions when water is available, we rush with buckets and containers, hoping to salvage what we can. Every chance to obtain water feels like it could be the last. “On the rare occasions when we do obtain water, we prioritize the needs of the most vulnerable among us: the elderly, the infirm, and the children,” he said.
“There have been times when, out of sheer desperation, we consumed water that was clearly unfit for drinking for several days.” Baz explained that taking such risks with water exposed those in his group to illnesses, such as dehydration, stomach ailments and diarrhoea.
Showers have become a “luxury” for Baz’s group and there is barely enough water to clean bathrooms.
‘Disease outbreak’
Baz’s descriptions correspond with those of other Palestinians in the area. Tens of thousands from the northern areas of Gaza have moved south to comply with the Israeli army’s orders. The south of the territory remains an active warzone with frequent Israeli attacks on the area.
Continued bombardment and consequent damage to infrastructure, coupled with the resource strain that has emerged from the mass displacement of Palestinians from northern Gaza, means there are already huge shortages that make it near impossible to carry out the basic functions of life.
Wisam, a Gaza resident, told Middle East Eye that he had initially moved from Gaza City to the Al-Maghazi refugee camp in the south to seek refuge with relatives.
“There was no water available, to the extent that going to the bathroom became a strenuous task. We had to bring water in a bucket to the bathroom, if we found any, and use the least amount possible. We force ourselves to avoid going to the bathroom as much as we can,” he said. “We bathe the children only, using the most meagre amounts of water,” Wisam added.Women wash clothes at a Gaza beach using sea water collected in buckets. via AFP
His family then returned to Gaza City and specifically to Al-Quds Hospital, which Israel has repeatedly demanded the evacuation of. “The scene there was nothing short of harrowing,” Wisam said.
“Clean water was a rarity, and basic sanitation seemed a distant memory. Hundreds of people were crammed into tight spaces, using communal bathrooms without adequate sanitation facilities.
“I fear that the hospital is turning into a hotspot for disease outbreaks, given the cramped conditions and dwindling supplies,” he added.
‘Scratching incessantly’
Of course, journalists working on the ground in Gaza know first-hand the difficulties of getting water. Middle East Eye contributor Mohammed al-Hajjar described how Israeli attacks on water pumps had ensured the only water coming through was that which was tainted by sea water and pollution.
Gaza’s residents had previously installed filters at these pumps so that a majority of impurities were removed for use besides drinking. “This water was okay for bathing or washing dishes, and you could use it for ablutions (wudhu), but it wasn’t really drinkable,” Hajjar said.
“Now, with the filters non-operational and the pumps barely working, that dirty water is back in our homes.” The effects, Hajjar said, were immediate.
“My skin started showing inflammations, especially where I washed or performed ablutions. My children have the same reaction. It looks like mosquito bites but it isn’t. Washing our hair with this water results in intense itching, especially on the scalp and hands.
“I’ve resorted to a moisturizing cream with an anasthetic for my children to stop them from scratching incessantly. My wife has the same issues. In fact, almost all of my family, 14 of us in total, suffer from this.”
Hajjar said his wife was showing signs of illness including “fever and a yellowish tint to her skin”. Seeking medical help though was out of the question, as hospitals and clinics are stretched to their limits trying to save victims of Israel’s bombing campaign. “We’re trying to self-treat, we’re doing our best.”
end
YEMEN/HOUTHIS
They declare war on Israel. The citizens of Yemen are starving to death but the Houthis are not helping the ordinary citizens.
(JERUSALEM POST)
The growing Houthi threat to Israel and the region – analysis
The Houthis are part of the Iranian desire to globalize and regionalize the October 7 massacre by Hamas. But they are also Iran’s proxy and weapons test bed.
Armed men hold up their weapons as Houthi supporters rally to show support to Palestinian factions, in Sanaa, Yemen October 7, 2023(photo credit: REUTERS/KHALED ABDULLAH)
The Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen are increasing their threats to Israel and the Middle East. On October 18 they launched drones and missiles targeting Israel, which were intercepted by a US warship in the Red Sea. The incident continued for several hours.
On Friday, October 27, another incident took place in which drones and projectiles landed in Egypt. That same day, Israel’s Foreign Ministry said “Israel condemns the harm caused to Egypt’s security forces by the missiles and drones launched by the Houthi terrorist organization with the intention of harming Israel. The Houthis a proxy of the Ayatollah’s terrorist regime in Teheran, which also controls the Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas terrorist organizations.”
The two threats now appear to be part of a growing pattern after sirens sounded in Eilat on Tuesday, October 31. In this incident reports said that an aircraft, likely an unmanned aircraft, had caused the sirens. The pro-Iran media Al-Mayadeen said that a drone had threatened Eilat.
The sirens in Eilat come two days after the Houthis said they had formed a joint operations room to confront Israel. The article at Al-Mayadeen about the Houthi threats said that the Houthis support a Palestinian state. The official slogan of the Houthis is “Death to America, death to Israel, curse the Jews.” The movement says they want a Palestinian state over the whole land, and they do not recognize the 1948 or 1967 concepts of two states. As such, they embrace the concept of “From the river to the sea.”
The Houthis said over the weekend that “There are joint operations rooms and efforts that monitor and work to confront any Zionist foolishness if it invades Gaza by land, and we are monitoring the situation closely.”The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Carney (DDG 64) fires a Standard Missile (SM) 2 to defeat a combination of Houthi missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles in the Red Sea, Oct. 19, 2023. (credit: Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Aaron Lau/US Navy)
The Houthis claim that “The war in Palestine has become a war against Islam, in which the West and the United States are mobilizing alongside the Zionist enemy.” This is part of the general attempt by Iran to rally proxies in the region to attack the US and Israel. For instance Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria have carried out 25 attacks on US forces since October 7.
For instance, Reuters said on Tuesday, “two armed drones targeted Iraq’s Ain al-Asad airbase, which hosts U.S forces, but there were no casualties or damage, a security source and a government source told Reuters on Tuesday.”Advertisement
The Houthis: Iran’s weapons test bed
The use of drones by the Houthis and by Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Syria is all part of the same Iranian octopus nexus. Iran exports drone technology to these groups. It also exports drones to Russia. The Iranian Shahed 136 first showed up in Yemen in 2001. As such, the Houthis are not only a proxy but a test bed for Iranian weapons. The Houthis have carried out drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia and the Gulf since 2015. China helped broker Saudi-Iran reconciliation earlier this year but the Houthis continue to threaten Riyadh from Yemen.
The Houthis are part of the Iranian desire to globalize and regionalize the October 7 massacre by Hamas. Iran has used its media to spread claims that the US is involved in Israel’s war on Hamas and therefore try to make this a regional conflict with the US. Turkey has also sought to slam the US as well as Israel. China and Russia have refused to condemn Hamas. This illustrates that this is a much larger war than just Israel fighting Hamas. Iran and Russia see it as a way to challenge the US. Russia believes this is about a multi-polar world order, they see the Hamas war as a kind of larger symbolic proxy war against the West.
“The Battle of Al-Aqsa Flood has begun and will destroy everything that the occupation forces and global imperialism have built,” the Houthi official Mashdi al-Mashat said, noting that “there is no such thing in the Arab region as Israel.” Aqsa “flood” is the Hamas name for its October 7 attack. Israel expanded ground operations in Gaza over the last few days and Hezbollah has increased threats against Israel, as well as terrorists in Syria and the Houthis. This is Iran’s plan to “unify” fronts against Israel.
The Houthi official claimed that “the West escaped from its problems and wars by exporting the Jews to the Arab world, and created an entity for them outside the topography of the region.” This is tradition Iran-backed Houthi antisemitic rhetoric. Jews have lived in the Middle East for thousands of years, including in Yemen. The Jewish presence in Yemen predates the modern Houthi movement.
The October 18 attack by the Houthis included numerous drones and missiles, some with large warheads. The October 27 attempted attack was thwarted but the projectiles landed in Egypt, showing the growing Houthi threat to the region. There was also another incident reported by Maariv overnight from October 29 to 30. The October 31 incident is still under review.
Saudi Arabia also put its forces on alert after a recent clash, according to Bloomberg on October 30. The Saudis have intercepted Houthi missiles in the past. Saudi Arabia’s Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman was in Washington on Monday and he discussed the Kingdom’s support for a ceasefire in Gaza. According to Arab News, “on Yemen, Prince Khalid wrote: ‘We also discussed the Kingdom’s efforts in Yemen to end the crisis and achieve peace.’ The White House said: ‘[Jake] Sullivan welcomed the significant de-escalation of the conflict over the past year and a half and endorsed Saudi-led efforts to bring the war to a close altogether.’”
END
GAZA/HAMAS/ISRAEL
(zerohedge)
Israel allows hundreds of foreigners to exit GAZA into Egypt. Egyptian government will defend its country against any Palestinians passing through the RAFAT gates/
Hundreds Of Foreigners, Including Americans, Allowed To Exit Gaza Into Egypt For 1st Time
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 09:45 AM
The Israel Defense Forces has said it is in close quarters combat with Hamas as troops push further into Gaza, resulting in an announced Tuesday death toll of eleven. By early Wednesday that figure rose to 13 Israeli soldiers killed, after Israel’s defense minister warned of the “heavy toll” which would be paid by troops in the operation to eradicate Hamas.
As the death toll among Gazans approaches 9,000, the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell has lashed out at Israel’s airstrikes and massive civilian casualties. Borrel says he is “appalled by the high number of casualties following the bombing by Israel of the Jabalia refugee camp.” Jabalia camp has reportedly been struck again, a day after the initial massive attack which had killed at least 52 Palestinians, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.IDF tanks inside Gaza, IDF handout/Reuters
But Israel’s military said that its Jabalia strike had taken out a top Hamas commander and other Hamas officers, and said Israeli decision-makers took into account the harm to civilians in the densely populated urban area.
On Wednesday Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed condolences for the IDF’s fallen soldiers along side other leaders. He said “We are in a tough war. This will be a long war. We have important achievements, but also painful losses.”
According to more from his message: “We know that every one of our soldiers is an entire world. All of Israel embraces you, the families, from the bottom of our hearts. All of us are with you during this time of mourning. Our soldiers fell in a war where there was no justice, a war for our home,” he said. “I promise you, the citizens of Israel: we will complete the task – we will continue until victory.”
IDF troops have begun the slow process of going door to door as they search for the missing Israeli and foreign hostages, which is up to 240, according to new military statements. Hamas has issued new statements claiming Israeli airstrikes killed a group of hostages. “Seven detainees were killed in the Jabalia massacre yesterday, including three holders of foreign passports,” said a Hamas statement issued from its military wing.
But the “painful losses” are mounting in much greater numbers for the Palestinian side, and civilians are bearing the brunt of suffering. International outrage and pressure has mounted on Tel Aviv, which has voiced that has warned Gaza civilians they must move to the southern half of the Strip if they want to escape the bombs. According to a fresh Gaza health ministry update as republished in Al Jazeera:
The number of people killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza has gone up to 8,796, including 3,648 children and 2,290 women.
At least 22,219 people have been wounded.
There are 2,030 reports of people missing including 1,020 children buried under the rubble.
130 paramedics and medical crew have been killed, 28 ambulances have been destroyed, and there have been more than 270 attacks on the healthcare system in Gaza.
16 hospitals out of 35 are out of operation, and 51 out of 72 primary healthcare clinics have shut down.
In the occupied West Bank, 128 Palestinians have been killed and at least 1,980 have been wounded.
There has meanwhile been a rare positive development on the humanitarian front. For the first time since the start of the war, foreigners and wounded Palestinians have been allowed to exit Gaza through the Rafah crossing into Egypt.
Some 500 foreign passport holders had reportedly been stuck at Rafah crossing for weeks since the start of the conflict after Oct.7. The area near the crossing had also been bombed by Israeli jets on several occasions. Ambulances have been observed Wednesday ferrying the wounded into Egypt.
Hundreds are foreign passport holders are also belatedly being let through, among them Americans. “At least five NGO workers who have been confirmed as Americans are listed as approved to cross on Wednesday but it remains to be seen how many of at least 400 American citizens the U.S. State Department says are stuck in Gaza will be able to cross in coming days,” CBS News reports. Some have lashed out at Washington over the lack of serious evacuation efforts in place for those dual nationals stuck in Gaza:
“They started letting foreigners out today but it’s not Americans because I guess we’re not as important as we thought,” Utah resident Susan Beseiso told CBS News on Wednesday.
“The American Embassy and the State Department haven’t called us since the last time we went to the border and got bombed four times. They haven’t been communicating with us or doing anything to get us out,” Beseiso said.
“It’s like they’re holding us hostages — not Hamas holding us hostages — it’s the IDF soldiers, Egypt and America. They’re using us as a human shield in a way.”
The fresh evacuees are undergoing security checks on the Egyptian side. Among those exiting include Palestinians holding Austrian, Bulgarian, Indonesian, Japanese Jordanian, Italian, Greek, Australian and Czech citizenships, and many others. Various nationals working for several NGOs are also on the departure list.
According to The Times of Israel, “A source briefed on the development told Reuters that the evacuations were agreed on in a deal mediated by Qatar between Egypt, Israel and Hamas in coordination with the US.”
END
YEMEN/ISRAEL
Yemen is starving and yet they launch missiles/ It looks like another front to the war. Israel will need to find where the Houthis are hiding. It would be time for the Saudis to enter this war and knock out the Houthis.
(zerohedge)
Israel Rushes Warships To Red Sea After Yemeni Houthis Launch Ballistic Missile & Drones
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 01:05 PM
Israel has rushed warships to the Red Sea, where US naval assets are also patrolling, after Yemen’s Houthis declared “war” earlier this week. The Houthis had also reportedly launched a ballistic missile at Israel, and released a video showing the launch. In total the Houthis are believed to have attempted three drone and missile attacks on Israel. One of the initial projectiles days ago had been intercepted by a US warship off Yemen, and another was stopped as follows:
The Israeli military on Tuesday used its Arrow missile defence system for the first time to intercept an “aerial threat” over the Red Sea, believed to have been a ballistic missile.
According to newly released Israeli military images, Sa’ar-class corvettes are now patrolling near Eilat port in the Red Sea.
They will be monitoring skies over the Red Sea and around Israel after the Yemeni rebel group widely seen as backed by Iran has vowed to “help the Palestinians to victory.”
While apart from Gaza, Israel has been most focused on the Hezbollah threat on the northern border – having engaged in daily exchanges of fire with the militant group in southern Lebanon – the Yemeni action raises the specter of the situation spiraling into a broader regional war.
Sporadic fire along the occupied Golan Heights, and Israel’s attacks south of Damascus, also raises the possibility of the Gaza war spilling into Syria.
According to fresh reporting in The New York Times, the Houthis are already escalating their attacks on faraway Israel:
Yemen’s Houthi militia claimed an attempted attack on southern Israel on Tuesday, saying it had launched a “large batch” of ballistic and cruise missiles as well as drones toward Israeli targets.
The Iran-backed militia carried out the attempted assault in response to what it called “brutal Israeli-American aggression” in Gaza, the Houthi military spokesman, Yahya Sarea, said on the social media platform X. Mr. Sarea said the attack was the third operation conducted by the Houthis “in support of our persecuted brothers in Palestine,” and threatened further missile and drone assaults.
The Houthis have been locked in a war with Saudi Arabia (and allies UAE & the US) since 2015. In 2014 the Shia rebel group overran the Yemeni capital of Sanaa, sparking the Saudi-UAE intervention to uphold the pro-Saudi government. Many tens of thousands have been killed over the last half-decade of fighting, with the country also on the brink of starvation.
Disagreement persists among analysts over whether the Houthis possess missiles that could effectively reach Israel.
The US and Israel have long accused Tehran of shipping weapons to the Houthis. It’s believed that their surprisingly sophisticated missile arsenal comes from the Iranians, and these have been used to attack Saudi Arabia several times, including strikes on Saudi Aramco oil facilities.
TURKEY //ISRAEL
idiot!
Turkey Is Preparing An Israeli War Crimes Case For The Hague’s ICC
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 02:45 AM
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is apparently trying to make good on his threats issued before a large pro-Palestinian rally last week saying that he would “present Israel before the world” as a “war criminal” state.
Turkish media is reporting Tuesday that officials are exploring ways to bring a war crimes case centered on Israel before the International Criminal Court (ICC). This was announced as the death toll in Gaza soars past 8,500. Getty Images
Erdogan had told a crowd of hundreds of thousands in Istanbul on Saturday, “Israel, we will also declare you as a war criminal to the world, we are preparing for it, and we will introduce Israel to the world as a war criminal,” according to a state broadcaster. “Israel is committing war crimes” as an “occupier.” He added: the “West owes you, but Türkiye does not owe you.”
But the only problem with Turkey bringing a war crimes case is that the country is not a party to the Rome Statute, which is the international treaty that established the ICC.
Thus, it cannot directly apply to the court. However, it can notify the Prosecutor’s office at the ICC through government agencies and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) about crimes against humanity. Under the Rome Statute’s Article 15, the Prosecutor may initiate investigations proprio motu (on one’s own initiative) based on information on crimes within the jurisdiction of the ICC. Therefore, Türkiye can issue notices about crimes committed by the Israeli government.
The publication also cited the following example, along with various statements of UN officials decrying Israel’s seeming indiscriminate attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure in Gaza:
ICC’s chief Prosecutor Karim Khan was at the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza over the weekend and issued a stark warning to Israel, suggesting that obstructing the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza could potentially be considered a criminal act. “Impeding relief supplies as provided by the Geneva Conventions may constitute a crime within the court’s jurisdiction,” Khan stated.
Khan has also said, “Israel has clear obligations about its war with Hamas, not just moral obligations but legal obligations.”
In response to Erdogan’s blistering denunciations, Israel has withdrawn all of its diplomats from Turkey…
“Given the grave statements coming from Turkey, I have ordered the return of diplomatic representatives there in order to conduct a reevaluation of the relations between Israel and Turkey,” Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen wrote on X this past weekend.
But while Turkey may have backers among BRICS and Global South countries in its efforts to get Israel branded with a war crimes charge, the reality is that the The Hague court has long been more under the West’s influence. The long-standing criticism has been that it typically tries and convicts African warlords, but never goes after US, UK, or European leaders responsible for overseeing wars that killed hundreds of thousands, such as in Iraq, Libya, or Yemen.
end
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
This doorknob thinks he can win against the Russians/???
(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)
Time Magazine’s Stunning Reversal: Zelensky ‘Deludes’ Himself Into Thinking Ukraine Can Win
One of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s closest aides has told Time Magazine that the Ukrainian leader has deluded himself into thinking Ukraine can win an ultimate victory against Russia after the failed counteroffensive and amid waning support for the conflict in the West.
The report said that despite the setbacks, Zelensky “does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic.”
The aide said Zelensky “deludes himself,” adding, “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.” The report said that the idea of negotiating peace or a temporary truce with Russia remains taboo to Zelensky.
“For us it would mean leaving this wound open for future generations,” Zelensky told Time. “Maybe it will calm some people down inside our country, and outside, at least those who want to wrap things up at any price. But for me, that’s a problem, because we are left with this explosive force. We only delay its detonation.”
A senior Ukrainian military officer told the magazine that the armed forces has had to second guess orders that came from Kyiv’s political leadership, including an order to capture the Donetsk city of Horlivka.
“They don’t have the men or the weapons,” the officer said. “Where are the weapons? Where is the artillery? Where are the new recruits?”
Ukraine is not just running low on weapons to fight the war but also manpower. One of Zelensky’s aides said even if Ukraine’s Western backers supplied all the arms they need, “we don’t have the men to use them.”
The report also detailed the corruption in the Ukrainian government that led to Zelensky’s recent move to sack former Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. The author of the Time story, Simon Shuster, said he naively thought a Ukrainian official would think twice before taking a bribe, but an adviser to Zelensky told him otherwise. “Simon, you’re mistaken,” the adviser said. “People are stealing like there’s no tomorrow.”
END
IN-DEPTH: Tehran Seeks Security From Beijing Amidst Fears of a ‘General Conflagration’ in the Middle East | The Epoch Times
When it comes to China and America, both parties are same. They have interests and not friends as so called allies are mere vassals for hegemony. The odd man out is Russia who while a state actor has a very different outlook. Today it is attacked more aggressively because it has a technological and natural resource advantage, neither of the other two have. And acts as balance between the two while lacking the actual economic might by a lack of population.
Attention to Russia will fade over time as the real fight is between China and America. Already, it is clear how American foreign policy is attempting to heme in Chinese influence which has been ignored for a long time. And gave rise to the not so pleasant reach China exhibits around the world. Over the next 5 years many efforts will be made to curtail and lessen such influence; be this in politics or in exports. This is one reason why China has so determinedly sought alternative markets to the West to offset what they knew was coming while smiling.
Most nations are simply pawns in the game between these two parties seeking global supremacy. And as such are all expendable in the quest. When you understand this you realize the events we see around us are not random and can be seen as a result of actions being taken not always apparent. We should not be surprised to see hostilities that cause energy prices to rise as these two foes battle it out because each party has assets that are and will be used to engineer desired reactions and advantages to be exploited. In this regard our day to day affairs are meaningless as we are left to sort matters out whether we understand or not.
IN-DEPTH: Tehran Seeks Security From Beijing Amidst Fears of a ‘General Conflagration’ in the Middle East
As Iran talks tough to Israel, China vows support for Tehran.
Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi (R) and Chinese leader Xi Jinping pose for a photo on the sidelines of a meeting at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on Sept. 16, 2022. (Shen Hong/Xinhua via AP)
In a meeting with Iran’s number two official last week, China’s premier reiterated Beijing’s support for the Middle East nation.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with Iranian First Vice-President Mohammad Mokhber at a meeting of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member states in Bishkek, capital of Kyrgyzstan, on Oct. 26.
Mr. Li said China will support Iran in securing its “state sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national dignity, and resolutely oppose any external interference in Iran’s internal affairs,” according to a statement by the Chinese foreign ministry, published on China’s various embassy websites.
The statement, with carefully chosen words that specifically reference Iran’s own concerns, comes at a time when the region is under the threat of a widening war, due to the Israel–Hamas war that was ignited by the Hamas terror group’s brutal Oct. 7 attack.
Experts told The Epoch Times Beijing’s statement indicates that Tehran has been seeking Beijing’s defense shield.
“It is likely that Iran is seeking Chinese security guarantees in case Tehran’s role in supporting Hamas terror group lands it in trouble. In that context, this public Chinese show of support is important and meaningful,” Ahmed Quraishi, a Dubai-based journalist who has covered the Middle East for over two decades, told The Epoch Times in a written message.
Iran Warns of ‘Far-Reaching Consequences’
Just one week after the Oct. 7 attack, as the Israeli offensive against Hamas continued, and as the United States was trying to deter Iran and Lebanon-backed Hezbollah—an Iranian proxy—from joining the war, Tehran warned Israel through the United Nations that it intends to intervene if Israel’s operations in Gaza continue. Axios broke news of the warning in an exclusive report on Oct. 14, citing two diplomatic sources familiar with the matter.
Subsequently, Iran’s mission to the United Nations warned via a post on X of “far-reaching consequences” if Israel’s “war crimes and genocide” were not stopped.
Ten days after the Axios report, the U.S. Department of Defense, while announcing the deployment of a squadron of F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft in the Middle East, said that U.S. forces conducting counterterrorism missions in both Iraq and Syria had been attacked by Iran-backed militias on more than a dozen occasions since Oct. 7.
“We know that the groups conducting these attacks are supported by the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] and the Iranian regime,” Pentagon press secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said during the briefing. He further warned of an escalation of Iran-backed attacks against U.S. forces in the region.
An Anti-West Axis
Clare Lopez is a former career CIA officer, taught at the Centre for Counterintelligence and Security Studies, and is the former executive director of the Iran Policy Committee. She has served as a consultant, intelligence analyst, and researcher for a variety of defense firms, and is the founder and president of Lopez Liberty, LLC.
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Ms. Lopez told The Epoch Times in an email that the close alignment of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) with the Iranian regime, which is arming, backing, and funding Hamas, is well known.
“Part of that alignment has to do with China’s economic dependence on Iranian oil. But China is also part of the anti-West axis that includes Iran as well as Putin’s Russia,” Ms. Lopez said.
The democratic state of Israel—which she called “moral, powerful and a close ally of the United States”—is hated by this new anti-American axis because of who it is, she said.
A demonstrator cheers and chants as smoke bombs go off during a protest in support of Palestine, in Vancouver, B.C., on Oct. 21, 2023. (Ethan Cairns/The Canadian Press)
‘Free Radicals’ and Rogue States
Experts say that on the one hand, China is using Iran as a destabilizing agent in the Middle East, while on the other hand, Iranian proxies are watching the reactions of the regime in Tehran to gauge their options.
Abhijit Iyer-Mitra, a defense economist and a senior fellow at the New Delhi-based Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, told The Epoch Times over the phone that China has found Iran and Hamas to be “perfect tools” to destabilize the Middle East.
“China doesn’t believe in allies, it believes in free radicals, which is to say, highly revisionist states, what we would call rogue states, who essentially destabilize the entire neighborhood,” said Mr. Iyer-Mitra.
A “classic” Chinese tactic has been to find destabilizing agents in various regions, according to Mr. Iyer-Mitra, who said that like Iran in the Middle East, the Chinese intend to use North Korea to destabilize East Asia, Pakistan to destabilize South Asia and Russia to destabilize Europe.
“And what that means is, you know, it imposes a burden on the status quo power like America, to essentially go in there and maintain the peace. While China walks away with all the dividends,” he said.
Mr. Quraishi said he believes the Iranian regime is acting out of a deep sense of insecurity because its response to the conflict is being closely watched by its various other proxies.
“Their base of Iranian extremists—the Khomeinists—wants Iran to help Hamas openly in the war. The proxy groups in the region are quietly watching [to see] if Tehran will leave Hamas to its fate,” he said.
Following the Oct. 7 attack, in a move to dismantle Hamas’ funding network, the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions on key Hamas-linked officials and financial networks. Those targeted included a Hamas official in Iran and members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as well as a Gaza-based entity “that has served as a conduit for illicit Iranian funds to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ),” according to a Treasury Department press release.
Mr. Quraishi said that the current situation is difficult for the Iranian regime, as it also faces a geo-strategic compulsion to seek Chinese support.
“Iran knows that a decimation of Hamas could weaken its own proxies. So, Supreme Leader Khamenei and IRGC commanders must be facing as difficult a choice as Israelis and Americans are facing. It’s no easy ride,” he said.
Iranian pro-government supporters participate in a rally to express their support for Palestinians, in Iran, on Oct. 18, 2023. (Hossein Beris/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
‘Real Fear’ of Synchronized Actions
Experts have said that China’s statements are laden with geopolitical intent, as it seeks to use destabilizing agents like Iran for its own greater political dividends. It wants to eventually emerge as the global hegemon.
Mr. Iyer-Mitra said that China’s ongoing tactic is to use Iran to bog down America and to exploit that situation to focus on Taiwan.
“For me, the real fear is that all these actions will be synchronized and coordinated,” he said.
“Which is to say, expect something big from Pakistan. Expect something big from North Korea, and a general conflagration in both the Middle East and in Eastern Europe … with the Russian offensive in winter, which then means America is bogged down on four separate fronts, and China launches its attack on Taiwan.”
However, Mr. Quraishi believes that despite China’s loud statements in support of Iran, there’s no certainty that it will actually come to Iran’s help if Tehran becomes part of the hostilities.
“Theoretically speaking, China can distract the U.S. in Southeast Asia by opening a front, as a passive form of support to Iran in that scenario. But would Beijing do this for Tehran? It’s a big question mark,” he said.
The Middle East journalist thinks that in such a situation the Chinese will most likely fail to actively aid Iran.
“While the Iranian regime is an important and useful partner, Chinese leaders are too smart to go down with the Iranians,” Mr. Quraishi said.
END
Jerusalem Post
2 Hours ago
WATCH: ‘Our mission was simply to kill,’ Hamas operative tells Shin Bet
Following Abu Rusha’s account, the interviewer asked: “Is killing children permitted in Islam?” Answer: no
The United States will deploy 300 additional troops to the Middle East following several new attacks on U.S. and Coalition forces in Iraq and Syria, the Pentagon has announced.
The forces will deploy to undisclosed locations in the Middle East outside of Israel, Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters on Oct. 31.
While many of the troops sent last week were operating in air defense elements, the 300 now deploying will primarily focus on support tasks including communications and explosive ordnance disposal, Gen. Ryder said.
The troops are intended to help the United States prevent the Israel-Hamas War from expanding into a regional conflict, as well as to prevent further attacks on U.S. service members.
“They are intended to support regional deterrence efforts and further bolster U.S. force protection capabilities,” Gen. Ryder said.
New Attacks by Iran-Backed Groups
Gen. Ryder said that there were 27 attacks on U.S. troops by Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Syria throughout October.
“Right now, we’re tracking a total of 27 attacks,” Gen. Ryder said. “16 in Iraq, 11 in Syria.”
The Pentagon has frequently claimed that the attacks are a separate issue from the ongoing Israel-Hamas War in Gaza, but Iran and the other groups involved have stated that they will increase their attacks on U.S. troops should Israel pursue a full-fledged invasion of Gaza.
“I think it’s important to differentiate what Iranian proxies and Iran might be saying and the perspective that we bring to this,” Gen. Ryder said. “Our forces are in Iraq and Syria for one purpose, which is the enduring defeat of ISIS.”
“This is separate and distinct from the situation in Israel, between Israel and Hamas.”
The attacks in Iraq and Syria have resulted in wounds to at least 21 American service members, including 19 who were diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries. All have since returned to duty.
In addition to the growing number of rocket and drone attacks on U.S. and Coalition bases, several medium-range cruise missiles were launched by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.
The USS Carney shot down four such missiles in the Red Sea on Oct. 19.
Pentagon leadership said that the missiles were headed north, possibly towards Israel, but that they were shot down because they were deemed a threat to the vessel.
“We cannot say for certain what these missiles and drones were targeting, but they were launched from Yemen heading north along the Red Sea, potentially toward targets in Israel,” Gen. Ryder said at the time.
The United States launched two retaliatory strikes over the weekend on facilities in Syria associated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which the United States designates as a terror organization.
The escalating conflict follows an unprecedented attack on Israel on Oct. 7, when Islamist terrorists murdered more than 1,400 Israelis, abducted women and children, and engaged in acts of torture.
Experts have warned that the Hamas terrorist organization, which receives funding and training from Iran, seeks to unleash an international conflict that will encourage more violence against Israel and the United States.
The Biden administration has said that it retains the right to retaliate against Iran at a time and in a manner of its own choosing.
“We know that these groups are funded, trained, and sponsored by the Iranian government,” Gen. Ryder said. “And we hold the Iranian government responsible.”
end
6,VACCINE/COVID ISSUES & GLOBAL ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES
World’s largest offshore wind far abandons two major USA projects as renewables bust erupts
(zerohedge)
World’s Largest Offshore Wind Farm-Developer Abandons Two Major US Projects As Renewable Bust Erupts
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 07:45 AM
President Biden’s ‘wind revolution’ is blowing down as the world’s largest offshore wind farm developer abandoned two major US projects due to supply chain and interest rate impacts and recorded impairment charges well above previous forecasts.
Orsted A/S announced, “US offshore wind projects have experienced further negative developments from adverse impacts relating to supply chains, increased interest rates, and the lack of an OREC (Offshore Renewable Energy Certificate) adjustment on Sunrise Wind,” which has forced it to cease the development of the Ocean Wind 1 and 2 projects off the coast of New Jersey.
Orsted said, “Total impairments recognized in the interim financial report for the first nine months of 2023 amount to DKK 28.4 billion [$4 billion], and the majority of these (DKK 19.9 billion) relate to Ocean Wind 1.” This figure is much larger than the previously announced impairment in August on its US portfolio of up to DKK 16 billion.
“This is a consequence of additional supplier delays further impacting the project schedule and leading to an additional significant project delay,” the company said.
Mads Nipper, chief executive, said he was “extremely disappointed to announce that we are ceasing the development of Ocean Wind 1 and 2,” adding, “The significant adverse developments from supply chain challenges, leading to delays in the project schedule, and rising interest rates have led us to this decision, and we will now assess the best way to preserve value while we cease development of the projects.”
Shares in Denmark-listed green energy giant crashed as much as 22%, falling to lows not seen in six years.
Analysts from Citi were negative on today’s developments:
Citi (Neutral, PT DKK417)
Bad news continues to drip out of Orsted, analyst Jenny Ping writes in a note
Impairment charge of DKK28.4b higher than Citi’s forecast of DKK20b and consensus of DKK17b
The recognition of deteriorating balance sheet and unachievable long-term targets is likely to put capital increase and further guidance cuts back on the table
While Orsted release highlights the ongoing challenges of the offshore sector, there is only a limited read-across for Vestas. It should not impact its 2025 targets, nor change our thesis that US onshore remains the most attractive market, Citi analyst Martin Wilkie writes
While…
Morgan Stanley (overweight, PT DKK 640)
Analyst Robert Pulleyn thinks the company’s increased clarity on its US portfolio will ultimately be taken positively even as the impairment is larger than expected and project cancellations will trigger EPS downgrades
RBC (Sector perform, PT DKK690)
Analyst Alexander Wheeler says there may be an opportunity to rebid Sunrise Wind, and the cancellation of development of Ocean Wind 1 and 2 — which is expected to be received negatively today — could provide better visibility on Orsted going forward
The Biden administration has touted offshore wind farms as an essential component of decarbonizing America’s grid. Under the Inflation Reduction Act, Orsted has received upwards of 30% tax credits, but more appears to be needed as a financial crisis is brewing in the offshore wind power industry.
Last week, Siemens Energy in Germany crashed after the company warned its wind turbine business is grappling with quality issues and offshore ramp-up challenges.
revisit certain popular narratives, including the circumstances surrounding Floyd’s death.’ just challenged an ex-con, one of left’s most sacred of cows, died with an elephant-dose of fentanyl in him
comes to these COVID-19 mRNA shots, especially with how widespread immunity is now.” Ladapo is 100% correct for we know spike protein persists post mRNA vaccine & thus why you must DETOX (TVF)
Support The Vigilant Fox (TVF), a good friend of mine and (his or her) excellent work!
Vigilant News
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Ladapo: “Once again, the federal government is failing Americans by refusing to be honest about the risks and not providing sufficient clinical evidence when it comes to these COVID-19 mRNA shots, especially with how widespread immunity is now. In Florida, we will always use common sense and protect the rights and liberties of Floridians, including the right to accurate information.”
will have a difficult time taking GAZA with tunnels etc. He made a good case, I provide this interesting read; Israel Faces ‘Near Impossible Task’ in Gaza; is a nuclear attack the only option?
Israel has conducted a series of ground incursions into Gaza over the course of the past week, each one building on the other, increasing in scope and scale. This appears to be part of an Israeli strategy to lean gradually into an operation that, when finished, falls just short of a general assault on Gaza.
At the end of the day, however, Israel will most likely not be able to defeat the military forces of Hamas and other Palestinian resistance forces defending Gaza. Israel will have to either seek to defeat Hamas by laying siege to the Gaza Strip or commit to a full-scale attack on Gaza designed to clear the territory of all Hamas fighters.
innocent people; Saudi Arabia now meeting with Biden INC…lets hope this is a good meeting for House of Saud has to stay in step; can we trust MBS? I believe firm there are good arabs who seek peace
Israel must defend itself and do so within rules of war but it must defend itself. Any nation attacked as Israel was must defend itself. Any sane nation.
EVOL NEWS
John Kerry Demands Americans Pay ‘Climate Reparations’ to WEFREAD MORE…
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Russia’s crude oil exports by sea have been exceeding the country’s targeted export reductions as part of the OPEC+ pact for weeks, with the most recent week’s observed shipments as high as 360,000 barrels per day (bpd) above target, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday. Despite edging lower, four-week average volumes exceeded it by almost 200,000 barrels a day in the most recent period.
In the week to October 29, Russia shipped around 3.64 million bpd of crude oil from its oil export terminals, up by 110,000 compared to the week prior, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee.
Higher shipments out of the port of Novorossiysk in the Black Sea contributed to most of the gains in crude flows from Russia in the last week of October and were only partially offset by a lower number of crude oil tankers that left Russia’s ports in the Baltic Sea and on the Pacific.
The four-week average crude oil shipments out of Russia were slightly lower at 3.48 million bpd in the week to October 29, a drop of around 20,000 bpd compared to the four-week average in the four weeks to October 22.
Even this slightly lower 3.48 million bpd export volume for the average of the four weeks to October 29 was nearly 200,000 bpd higher than the exports Russia would have to ideally stick to in order to fulfill its pledge to cut exports by 300,000 bpd, Bloomberg notes.
Russia has never been quite clear about what exports it is cutting and how it calculates those volumes.
Russia’s commitment to reduce its oil exports by 300,000 bpd includes oil products, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said earlier this month in remarks that sowed further confusion about how much oil supply Russia is really withholding from the market.
Russia has pledged to reduce its oil exports by 300,000 bpd until the end of 2023, in a show of solidarity with its OPEC+ partner Saudi Arabia, which is voluntarily reducing its oil production by 1 million bpd until 2023.
end
Jimmy Carter’s huge mistake in 1979!
(the Cradle)
Khamenei Calls On Muslim World To ‘Stop Oil Exports’ To Israel
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei spoke about the Gaza-Israel during a meeting with a group of students at the Imam Khomeini Hussainiyah in Tehran on Wednesday, chastising Gulf Arab states for their complicity in Israeli aggression.
“What Muslim states must insist on is the immediate cessation of [Israeli] crimes in Gaza. They must promptly stop the bombardment of Gaza and stop the export of oil and other commodities to the Zionist regime,” Khamenei stressed.
“Muslim states must not cooperate economically with the Zionist regime but denounce these catastrophes and crimes vociferously and without hesitation in all international forums,” he added.
Khamenei also highlighted that the ongoing war is “between truth and falsehood, between the power of faith and the power of arrogance.” He added: “Of course, the power of arrogance comes with military pressure, bombardment, as well as calamities and crimes, but the power of faith will overcome all of these by God’s grace.”
Khamenei also mentioned that Gaza is a “human movement” whose influence spread outside of the Levant.
“[The people of Gaza managed to] move the human conscience […] look what is happening in the world; in western countries, in Britain, France, Italy, and various US states, people come in large crowds to the streets and chant slogans against Israel and the US itself,” Khamenei added.
“It was an absolute disgrace for them, which they can neither recover from nor justify,” Khamenei said. “The Muslim world should not forget that all through the critical issue of Gaza, the [parties] which stood against Islam and the oppressed Palestinian nation was [the US], France and Britain.”
Speaking about the movements in the west, Khamenei touched on those who are blaming Iran for the protests, mockingly saying that “we see a fool coming and saying that the gathering of people in England to support the Palestinian people is the work of Iran.”
During his talks with the students of Iran, he looked back at the role played during the 1979 takeover of the US embassy in Iran, saying, “The US was disgraced. This was the blow of the Iranian nation to the US.”
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
end
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0543 DOWN 0.0035
USA/ YEN 151.20 DOWN .120 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2132 DOWN 0.0018
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3883 UP .0005 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 5 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 4.31 PTS OR 0.14%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 10.70 PTS OR 0.06%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.82% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 10.70 PTS OR 0.06%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.31 PTS OR 0.14%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.82%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 742.80 PTS OR 2.40%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1983,40
silver:$22.66
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 106.76 UP 26 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.3179
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.3336)
TURKISH LIRA: 28.33 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.948…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 8 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.802% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.963 DOWN 6 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 5.002 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 44.97 POINTS or 0.62%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 33.77 PTS OR 0.23%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 29.15 PTS OR 0.58%
Spain IBEX UP 109.00 PTS OR 1.22%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 64.73 PTS OR 0.24%
WTI Oil price 82.69 12: EST
Brent Oil: 86.91 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 92.85; ROUBLE UP 0 AND 55//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.75550 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.5205 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0559 DOWN 0.0019 OR 19 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2153 UP .0027 or 27 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.5335% DOWN 3 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .947%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 150.75 DOWN 0.569 //YEN UP 57 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3863 DOWN .15 CDN dollar UP 15 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 80.45
Brent OIL: 84.83
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 11 BASIS pts to 4.763%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 5 BASIS PTS to 4.970%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 13 PTS AT 4944 %
USA dollar index: 106.77 UP 10 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.32 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 92.74 UP 0 AND 66/100 roubles
GOLD 1981.00
SILVER: 22.88
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 221.71 PTS OR 0.67%
NASDAQ UP 255.12 PTS OR 1.77%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.79 DOWN 1,35 PTS (7.44)%
GLD: $183.51 DOWN 0.58 OR 0.32%
SLV/ $20.97 DOWN .01 OR 0.048%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Good ‘Bad Data’ & Fed ‘NikiLeaks’ Spark Surge In Bonds & Stocks
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Today was all about ‘bad data’ being ‘good’ and a terrified (or satisfied) Fed watching long-end rates soar out of their control (thanks to Bidenomics).
The Fed’s acknowledgement of ‘tightening financial conditions’ – something we have been discussing for weeks – was key today (even though it is, for now, having no impact on the economic data)…
Source: Bloomberg
As JPM’s Priya Misra noted: it “looks like the Fed is buying time until the long and variable lags can work through the system.”
Powell didn’t help early on in his press conference, with some hawkish-sounding comments:
*POWELL: PROCESS OF GETTING INF. TO 2% HAS LONG WAY TO GO
*POWELL: FULL EFFECTS OF TIGHTENING YET TO BE FELT
*POWELL: NOT CONFIDENT WE’VE REACHED STANCE FOR 2% INFLATION
The ramp higher in stocks started at 1443ET – take your pick of what triggered the happy algos:
14:43 – Fed Chair Powell (Q&A) says Fed staff did not put a recession back into their forecast at this meeting
14:44 – Fed Chair Powell (Q&A) says financial conditions have clearly tightened; over time that will have an effect, we just do not know how quickly that will be
14:47 – Fed Chair Powell (Q&A) says Fed is not thinking about rate cuts right now at all, is not thinking or talking about rate cuts; are focused on if Fed is sufficiently restrictive; The question Fed is asking, is should we hike more
14:50 – Fed Chair Powell (Q&A) says they are very focused on getting confident that the Fed has achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance of policy
14:52 – Fed whisperer WSJ Nick Timiraos ‘translated’ Powellspeak for us into a dovish angle…
14:53 – Fed Chair Powell (Q&A): Fed still believes it is likely they will need to see slower growth and softening in labour market conditions
14:55 – Fed Chair Powell (Q&A) says it is still very hard to say the length of lags of policy, Fed has to make policy under great uncertainty, this is one reason Fed have slowed process down this year, they cannot rush it. Slowing down is giving us a better sense of how much more we need to do. if we need to do more.
14:57 – Fed Chair Powell (Q&A): Dot plot is a “picture in time” of appropriate policy in light of policymakers personal views, efficacy of dot plot decays during the inter-meeting period, we try to be transparent in our thinking. As we approach next meeting, we will be talking about how we parsing the data.
15:00 – Fed Chair Powell (Q&A): Fed has come very far with this rate-hike cycle, Fed is close to the end of the cycle; Fed is proceeding carefully
15:01 – Fed Chair Powell (Q&A) says Fed is not considering changing pace of balance sheet run off. QT may be playing a relatively small role in the rise in longer-term rates. Reserves are not even close to scarce at this point
All of which led to dovish drops in rate-change expectations…
Source: Bloomberg
As Goldman’s Chris Hussey noted earlier, at the heart of today’s asset price moves lies a theme that has been playing out in markets for much of the post-pandemic era: the interplay and evolving relationship between inflation, growth, and rates.
With inflation finally on a path back to normal, and rates at the highest level they’ve been since before the Great Financial Crisis, the markets’ focus is on growth.
Normally, ~5% GDP growth (as we experienced in 3Q23) would be a good thing (and it still is, generally), but the impact of such high growth on rates (and the reaction function of the Fed) has been making better growth data not such a good thing.
Simply put, there can be too much growth for the market’s appetite of course.
So, today’s potentially slower growth trajectory (signaled by PMI/ISM) is being, unsurprisingly, taken as a good thing.
Today, the market only had eyes and ears for dovish thoughts and stocks ripped higher during Powell’s speech to end significantly higher with Nasdaq leading the charge and Small Caps rebounding into the green…
Treasury yields plunged, dropping first on weak ISMs and ADP, and then during Powell’s presser. The belly outperformed on the day but the entire curve collapsed (5Y -20bps, 2& and 30Y -15bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
Before we leave stocks and bonds, we note that Stan Druckenmiller explained on CNBC this morning how messed up our fiscal stance is, and how The Fed has enabled it. But one of his more prescient observations was that: “…bonds are adjusting to a post-QE world, but for some reason equities haven’t.” We agree, but it looks like they are starting to get the joke…
Source: Bloomberg
2Y yield plunged back below 5.00%, hitting the spike lows from the safe-haven move after Israel…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (2s30s) continues to swing wildly…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar leaked dovishly lower on the day…
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum surged up to $1850 (as bitcoin ended unch)…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil trading was wild today with WTI soaring up to erase yesterday’s losses and then giving it all back and more. WTI has perfectly erased all of the war-premium from Israel…
Spot Gold declined to $1970 intraday but bounced back to end only marginally lower on the day
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, while Janet Yellen is ridiculously claiming that higher long-end rates is due to ‘economic growth’ (don’t show her Atlanta Fed’s latest GDPNOW signal), yields could be rising for a much, much more serious reason…
Source: Bloomberg
…the sovereign risk of ‘Murica is on the rise and the long-bond appears to be reflecting that ‘risk’ (something it has not done in the past). Even Fed Chair Powell made it clear: Longer-term rates that have moved up can’t just be a reflection of expected policy moves. Damn it, Janet!
EARLY MORNING TRADING/
end
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON//FOMC
Fed Remains ‘Paused’, Acknowledges Tightening Financial Conditions ‘Doing Its Job’
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 02:00 PM
Since The Fed’s last statement and press conference on September 20th, the market’s movements (impacted by the ongoing chaos in Israel also) have been somewhat remarkable.
Bitcoin has soared higher, stocks and bonds (the latter worse than the former) have both been hammered as gold and the dollar have rallied in unison…
Source: Bloomberg
We note that Gold has been on quite a path in the last two months but is back – again – at around the same levels as it has been for the last two FOMC meetings…
Source: Bloomberg
Additionally, The Fed’s jawboning of “higher for longer” is increasingly being accepted by the rates market as the SOFR spreads for Dec 2023-2024 and 2023-2025 have surged since the last FOMC…
Source: Bloomberg
Of particular note, we have seen financial conditions tighten significantly since the last FOMC (while at the same time, macro surprise data has improved marginally – not fallen apart)…
Source: Bloomberg
Specifically, the period since the last FOMC brought some surprisingly strong readings on inflation and the economy more broadly. Here are some headline numbers:
Third-quarter GDP growth was a whopping 4.9%, higher than forecast and an a historic figure for the US, where growth tends to hover around 2%-3%
September payrolls were also strong, with employers adding 336,000 jobs, nearly double what economists had been expecting
A variety of inflation indicators cooled less than anticipated, or posted slight gains. The employment cost index, a broad and reliable indicator, ticked up 1.1% in the third quarter, a pace far above its pre-pandemic average of 0.7%.
However, the last chart above is of increasing relevance as the narrative that “the market is doing The Fed’s job for it” continues to keep hopes alive that Powell and his pals are done (due to this dramatic tightening).
For today, expectations are for no change (0.5% odds of a rate-hike priced-in), but the market remains more dovishly priced still than The Fed’s projections (at least until 2026)…
Source: Bloomberg
The Fed statement is expected to be more or less identical to September’s.
And so, what did we get?
The Fed – as expected – left rates unchanged:
*FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 5.25-5.5% TARGET RANGE
The Fed leaves more hikes on the table:
*FED REPEATS IT WILL ASSESS EXTENT OF ADDITIONAL POLICY FIRMING
And sure enough, as we noted above, The Fed likes the market doing its job for it, specifically adding reference to tighter “financial” conditions
*FED: TIGHTER FINANCIAL, CREDIT CONDITIONS TO WEIGH ON ECONOMY
The question we are left with is – what is the trigger for The Fed to not ‘leave the rate hike option’ on the table.
Read the full redline below:
Powell’s press conference is coming right up but we note that despite everything very much ‘as expected’, the market is uneasy and the implied-implied move in the S&P tomorrow is 0.89%, which would make it the highest implied move since May according to Goldman.
Here’s what to expect (assume a ‘hold’)
/
TUCKER CARLSON
II USA DATA
ADP employment report signals continued wage growth declines
(ADP)
ADP Employment Report Signals Continued Wage Growth Decline
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 08:27 AM
After ADP printed dramatically lower than BLS for September’s payroll data (+89k vs +336k)…
Source: Bloomberg
analysts’ expectations were for a rise to +150k job additions in October, but for the 3rd straight month, ADP disappointed with a +113k print (+150k exp).
Source: Bloomberg
The ADP print is well below the +180k expected for Friday from BLS.
Services sector once again dominated the good sector with “No single industry dominated hiring this month, and big post-pandemic pay increases seem to be behind us,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
“In all, October’s numbers paint a well-rounded jobs picture. And while the labor market has slowed, it’s still enough to support strong consumer spending.”
Finally, as a reminder, September saw ‘Professional & Business Services’ sector lose 32k jobs according to ADP, whereas JOLTS saw a stunning increase of 509k job openings in that sector. October’s ADP data showed a 10k job loss… what will JOLTS show at 10amET…
Source: Bloomberg
October saw the 13th straight month of declines in wage growth – to the weakest growth levels since Q3 2021. Job stayers saw a 5.9 percent year-over-year pay increase in September, marking the 12th straight month of slowing growth. Pay gains also shrank for job changers, to 9 percent, down from 9.7 percent in August.
Source: Bloomberg
but the actual pace of wage gains remains well above The Fed’s inflation targets for both job-stayers and job-changers.
END
All manufacturing survey are showing stagflation with acceleration inflation and poor growth
Manufacturing Surveys Scream Stagflation: Inflation Accelerated, Demand Muted, Jobs Cut For First Time Since COVID
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 10:05 AM
After the unexpected rise in September, expectations were for October’s Manufacturing surveys to hold their gains around 49-50 level – despite the recent collapse in ‘hard’ macro data.
Sure enough, S&P Global’s US Manufacturing PMI printed 50.0 final for October (in line with the flash print and expectations and up slightly from September’s 49.8). But, ISM’s Manufacturing survey printed well below expectations (46.7 vs 49.0 exp vs 49.0 exp)…
The PMI survey highlighted that demand conditions were historically muted overall, with firms downwardly adjusting their output expectations for the year ahead and cutting employment for the first time since July 2020.
ISM warns that “the October reading (46.7 percent) corresponds to a change of minus -0.7 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”
New orders and employment fell (second weakest since COVID lockdowns) as prices rose…
“October PMI data signalled a stabilisation of US manufacturing conditions amid a renewed rise in new order inflows and firmer output growth. Demand conditions reportedly showed signs of improvement as customer interest revived, but this was once again largely focused on the domestic market as new export orders fell at a quicker rate.
However, it was not all good news at all – backlogs down, jobs down, output expectations down, inflation up:
“Of concern were reports of dwindling backlogs of work, previously used to help support production, as firms also revised down their expectations for future output to the lowest in 2023 so far.”
“At the same time, manufacturers cut employment for the first time in over three years as workloads were reportedly insufficient to warrant additional hiring or the replacement of voluntary leavers. “
“On the price front, manufacturers saw sharper increases in costs and output charges, as inflation regained some momentum in the sector. Higher oil and oil-derived input prices again spurred hikes, as rates of inflation accelerated for the third month running.“
Finally, we note that, with a 6-month lag or so, US Manufacturing surveys have been following the path of financial conditions. Six months after financial conditions began to ease late last year, US Manufacturing surveys started to pick up…
Source: Bloomberg
…but as the chart shows, the recent aggressive tightening of financial conditions suggest the sentiment surveys are about to run out of their upside steam.
Will that slower growth be accompanied by slowing inflation? For now, inflation expectations are on the rise once again..
END
JOLTS report
US Job Openings Unexpectedly Rose For A Second Month To 9.6 Million, Beating Estimates
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 10:29 AM
After today’s below-estimate ADP report, and the disappointing Manufacturing ISM index where the employment number tumbled into contraction from 51.2 to 46.8 – the second lowest since the covid crash – all eyes were on the September JOLTS report for additional insight into Friday’s jobs report. However, those expecting a big outlier print were to be disappointed after the BLS reported that in September, the number of job openings rose modestly by 56K, from a 9.497MM August print (which of course was revised lower from the original 9.610MM number, which as a reminder was driven by a staggering – and goalseeked0 – 35% increase in professional and business services job openings) to 9.553MM…
… above consensus estimates of a 9.4MM print.
According to the BLS, job openings increased in accommodation and food services (+141,000) and in arts, entertainment, and recreation (+39,000); job openings decreased in other services (-124,000), federal government (-43,000), and information (-41,000).
The 2nd consecutive increase in the number of job openings meant that in September the number of job openings was 3.193 million more than the number of unemployed workers, the highest since June and reversing the last three months of normalization in the labor market.
Curiously, despite the recent surge in job openings, the concurrent increase in unemployed workers (which in September rose to 6.36 million), meant that the number of job openings for every unemployed worker was virtually unchanged for the 3rd month at 1.50.
And while the paradoxical continued increase in job openings at a time when even the ISM institute is saying that the latest Manufacturing print implied a -0.7% Q4 GDP, remained a head-scratcher one certainly could not see a similar euphoria in the other data points tracked by the JOLTS reported, starting with the number of quits, which dropped in September to 3.661 million, down from 3.663 million, and far below the quitting frenzy observed in late 2021/early 2022 when 4.5 million workers quit their jobs every month.
Furthermore, while the DOL goalseeked job openings higher, it forgot to do the same to not only quits but also hires; in fact, hires rose a tiny 21K to 5.5871 million, also just barely above the lowest level since March 2021.
And while we have previously discussed the chronic fabrication of job openings data by the BLS, which goes against all private surveys, we are confident that when the Biden admin finally falls and some enterprising forensic accountant digs to find out just where all these bullshit numbers came from, what they will find is some political hack at the BLS/DOL claiming that it’s not their fault, but rather that it’s the response rate. And indeed, as the BLS itself indicates, the response rate to most of its various labor (and other) surveys has collapsed in recent years, nothing is as bad as the JOLTS report where the actual response rate has tumbled to a record low 31%
In other words, more than two thirds, or 70% of the final number of job openings, is estimated!
And at a time when it is critical for Biden to still maintain the illusion that at least the labor market remains strong when everything else in Biden’s economy is crashing and burning (or soaring as is the case of inflation) we’ll let readers decide if the admin’s Labor Department is plugging the estimate gap with numbers that are stronger or weaker.
As for the market, it appears to also have given up on any signaling information from JOLTS because unlike last month when yields spiked on the JOLTS report, today’s increase in job openings had exactly zero impact on rates, which dropped to session lows, focusing far more on the ugly ISM employment number and the ADP miss, while completely ignoring the JOLTS data.
end
The Party’s Over: Atlanta Fed Slashes Q4 GDP Estimate From 2.3% To 1.2%
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 02:41 PM
Remember when we mocked the BEA’s recent report that Q3 GDP had hit a scorching 4.9% (well above estimates) on the back of such laughably “growth” factors as surging inventories and government consumption…
… and said prepare for Bidenomics to collapse in Q4?
Well it just did, and not once but twice.
First, it was the ISM Chair Tim Fiore who earlier today said that “the past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI and the overall economy indicates that the October reading (46.7 percent) corresponds to a change of minus-0.7 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.” Translation: the economy is already in contraction, which would hardly be a shock since Europe is also in contraction, China’s economy is imploding and the US will never decouple from the rest of the world.
And now, it’s the same Atlanta Fed which last quarter stunned Wall Street with its 5%+ Q3 GDP estimates, and which just came out with its second Q4 GDP forecast which was a doozy: at 1.2% it was almost 50% below the Atlanta Fed’s first Q4 GDP estimate of 2.3%.
Here are the details:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.2 percent on November 1, down from 2.3 percent on October 27.
After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.0 percent and -2.2 percent, respectively, to 1.5 percent and -2.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.11 percentage points to 0.22 percentage points.
Bottom line: the Bidenomics trendline that was so laughably interrupted by the one-time, artificial, and debt-driven burst in Q3 GDP is back to normal…
… and the ridiculous economic “boost” that Biden tried to represent as being the normal, is now gone. Next step: recession, rate cuts, more stimmies, and so on.
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
WeWork Craters 36% After Hours On WSJ Bankruptcy Report
TUESDAY, OCT 31, 2023 – 04:45 PM
Less than 3 months after warning investors in its SEC filing that:
“Our losses and negative cash flows from operating activities raise substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern.”
…and after a series of increasingly dire warnings over the financial condition of WeWork – and skipped payments – WeWork’s inevitable bankruptcy is imminent.
According to a report from the Wall Street Journal – which sent WeWork shares spiraling to the tune of 36% as of this writing – the failed workspace company, once valued at $47 billion, is planning to file Chapter 11 as early as next week.
Will we get another explosive squeeze this time, or are they done?
The company missed interest payments to bondholders on Oct. 2, which initiated a 30-day grace period. Failing to do so means default – however on Tuesday the company said it had struck an agreement with bondholders which would allow it another seven days to negotiate before a default is triggered.
“The forbearance agreement provides time to continue in the positive conversations with our key financial stakeholders and engage with them to implement our ongoing strategic efforts to enhance our capital structure,” a spokesperson told the Journal, pointing to an early Tuesday securities filing.
Things took a decided turn for the worse in August, when a management shakeup, followed by September comments from CEO David Tolley regarding the company’s lease commitments foreshadowed bad things to come.
In August, the company shook up its board after three directors resigned due to a material disagreement regarding board governance and the company’s strategic direction, according to a securities filing. WeWork appointed four new directors with expertise in large, complex financial restructurings. Those directors have been negotiating with WeWork’s creditors over the past several months about a restructuring plan as they prepare for the bankruptcy.
The flexible-workspace provider has been aiming to renegotiate leases with landlords after signaling that it has substantial doubt about its prospects for survival. Chief Executive David Tolley said during a September conference call with landlords that WeWork’s lease commitments must be “right-sized” to accommodate its operations in the current market because the office real-estate market has fundamentally changed. -WSJ
In early September, Tolley announced that the company would be renegotiating all leases, as well as a plan to cut all ‘underperforming’ offices.
WeWork had 777 locations across 39 countries as of June, which included 229 locations in the US. The company has an estimated $10 billion in lease obligations ranging from the second half of 2023 through the end of 2027, as well as an additional $15 billion that starts in 2028.
The company incinerated $530 million in cash during the first six months of this year, and had around $205 million of cash on hand as of June.
Going forward, as we detailed previously, since WeWork doesn’t own any offices (it pays landlords), if the company can’t renegotiate leases or flat-out cancels, it would inflict pain on building owners.
The ripple effect of a WeWork bankruptcy leaves 16.8 million square feet of office space at risk. We suspect building owners with heavy exposure to WeWork aren’t entirely pleased about its tenant being on the verge of bankruptcy.
Americans Panic Search “Give Car Back” As Subprime Auto Loan Delinquency Erupts
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 06:55 AM
Recent data from Edmunds reveals that an unprecedented 17% of American car purchasers now have monthly car payments of $1,000, a significant increase from just 7% three years ago. This trend highlights the extent to which consumers, despite being financially stretched, are willing to take on massive auto debt in these uncertain economic times as macroeconomic headwinds pile up.
New Google data, first revealed by X user CarDealershipGuy, shows Americans are searching “give car back” on the internet has soared to a record high.
CarDealershipGuy added, “For everyone DMing me: No, you can’t “give back” a car – That’s a repossession.”
This year, we have been dutifully tracking the auto sector, considered a leading economic indicator, to pinpoint the arrival of the crushing auto loan crisis and even the possibility of the onset of the next recession.
The percent of subprime auto borrowers at least 60 days past due on their loans rose to 6.11% in September, the highest in data going back to 1994, according to Fitch Ratings. -BloombergSource: Bloomberg
What’s clear is the subprime borrower, who took out 84-month +$1,000 monthly car payments, is getting squeezed in the high-rate environment.
The auto loan crisis, something we called a “perfect storm” earlier this year, appears to be unfolding.
end
FBI Director Warns Threat Of Attacks By Hamas On American Soil Raised “To A Whole Other Level”
TUESDAY, OCT 31, 2023 – 09:25 PM
“The reality is that the terrorism threat has been elevated throughout 2023 but the ongoing war in the Middle East has raised the threat of an attack against Americans in the United States to a whole ‘nother level.”
That is the scenario FBI Director Chris Wray led with during a Senate Homeland Security Committee hearing today.
Specifically, Wray warns Hamas terrorists may soon exploit tensions in the US to “conduct attacks here on our own soil” while also inspiring potential domestic extremists to do the same.
“Here in the United States our most immediate concern is that violent extremists individuals or small groups will draw inspiration from the events in the Middle East to carry out attacks against Americans going about their daily lives.”
“…cannot and do not discount the possibility that Hamas or another foreign terrorist organization May exploit the current conflict to conduct attacks here on our own soil.”
Does this mean the feds are no longer focusing their Orwellian ire on conservative Christians as the “greatest threat” to America? Not quite. Wray noted very clearly that this threat from overseas is
“…on top of the homegrown violent extremists and domestic violent extremist threat…”
Any attacks, whether perpetrated by actual Islamic terrorists, leftist activists or covert agencies serving “special interests” will likely be used as an excuse for more aggressive pressure on constitutional rights in the US.
Anyone who opposes such controls may also be labeled terrorists.
The sociopolitical dynamics of America are about to shift once again to an ugly place with uncertain outcomes.
end
Real Estate Brokerages Zillow, RedFin Tumble After Jury Finds Realtors Conspired To Keep Commissions High
TUESDAY, OCT 31, 2023 – 06:45 PM
Real estate brokerages such as Zillow, RedFin, ReMex and others tumbled after a federal jury found the National Association of Realtors and large residential brokerages such as HomeServices of America and Keller Williams, liable for about $1.8 billion in damages after determining they conspired to keep commissions for home sales artificially high.
Under antitrust rules, the presiding judge could triple the damages verdict, which would total more than $5 billion. The plaintiffs also have asked the judge to order changes to how the industry operates.
The verdict came in the first of two major antitrust lawsuits that target decades-old industry practices and argue that unlawful industry practices have left consumers unable to lower their costs even though internet-era innovations have allowed many buyers to find homes themselves online. The two-week trial involved claims by home sellers in several Midwestern states; they sought to drive down commissions and change the way agents are compensated.
Two brokerages, HomeServices of America and Keller Williams Realty, were also defendants in the case. Two others, Anywhere Real Estate and Re/Max Holdings, settled before trial and agreed to pay almost $140 million combined.
Announced in a packed Kansas City courtroom, the verdict came after just a few hours of jury deliberations. The case was brought by home sellers in several Midwestern states. Their lawyers hugged and shook hands as the verdict was announced.
According to the WSJ, the verdict “could lead to industrywide upheaval by changing decades-old rules that have helped lock in commission rates even as home prices have skyrocketed—which has allowed real-estate agents to collect ever-larger sums.”
It comes in the first of two antitrust lawsuits arguing that unlawful industry practices have left consumers unable to lower their costs even though internet-era innovations have allowed many buyers to find homes themselves online.
For several years NAR has been fending off accusations by US antitrust officials and private litigants that it has conspired to keep home-sale costs high in the face of major technological upheavals. This verdict is by far the group’s biggest setback yet. An NAR spokesman said, “This matter is not close to being final as we will appeal the jury’s verdict.”
HomeServices of America, a subsidiary of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, said it intends to appeal. “Today’s decision means that buyers will face even more obstacles in an already challenging real estate market and sellers will have a harder time realizing the value of their homes,” a company spokeswoman said. Keller Williams said it is considering an appeal.
Under the current system, sellers pay their own agent a commission — typically 5% to 6% of a home’s selling price — which is in turn shared with the buyer’s agent. Over the course of the trial, plaintiffs’ attorneys argued this model has suppressed competition by making it difficult for buyers and sellers to negotiate for lower rates.
“NAR and corporate real-estate companies have had a stranglehold on real-estate commissions for too long,” plaintiffs’ lawyer Michael Ketchmark said outside of the courtroom.
The news sent real-estate brokerage stocks tumbling: Redfin and Zillow both plunged as much as 10% before recovering some losses. Traditiona broker Re/Max was down 3%.
END
“Pharmageddon” Strikes US Drugstores As 5,000 Workers Walk Off Job
TUESDAY, OCT 31, 2023 – 08:45 PM
Mostly non-unionized employees at CVS Health Corp. and Walgreens Boots Alliance drugstores have walked off the job in protest about harsh working conditions.
Reuters said the three-day walkout of thousands of pharmacy workers began on Monday and has been dubbed “Pharmageddon” on various social media platforms, like X and Facebook.
The protest garnered support from the American Pharmacists Association, the largest advocacy group for pharmacy workers, which expressed:
APhA stands with every pharmacist who participated in the walkout today. The bottom line is that we support every pharmacist’s right to work in an environment with staffing that supports your ability to provide patient care. We know that these are steps you deem necessary in order to be heard by your employer.
Reuters spoke with Shane Jerominski, an ex-Walgreens pharmacist and one of the organizers of the protest, who said it’s unclear how many stores are affected nationwide by the walkout. He noted at least 5,000 pharmacy workers are participating in the non-unionized labor action.
Workers at Walgreens and CVS have staged walkouts before. Several pharmacies in the US were closed in Arizona, Washington, Massachusetts, and Oregon in September and early October over labor action disputes. Walgreens told CNN the current labor action is only impacting operations “minimally.”
The Facebook page “The Accidental Pharmacist,” with its 122,000 followers – many of whom are pharmacists and technicians – has been actively sharing updates regarding the ongoing walkout.
Drugstore disruptions?
This latest labor action comes as workers are getting record-breaking pay hikes thanks to strategic strikes, according to Bloomberg.
“We are seeing an incredible moment of worker power,” Acting US Labor Secretary Julie Su said in an interview.
Su said, “We said that essential workers matter, and now workers are saying, ‘Let’s really figure out what that looks like.'”
The drugstore walkout shows a new labor movement emerges
end
Another bubble bursts:
(zerohedge)
Estee Slaughter: Beauty Giant Implodes To 6 Year Low As Consumers Hit Brick Wall
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 12:45 PM
When we looked at the performance of consumer stocks last quarter, we found a not unexpected divergence between companies catering to lower income consumers, which have been hammered for much of 2023, and those targeting rich buyers, which – especially in the case of a handful of European luxury giants such as LVMH, Kering and Hermes – had done tremendously well for much of the past year, making Bernard Arnault the richest man in the world, if not for long.
Fast forwarding to today, while we have yet to hit rock bottom when it comes to lower income cohorts, it is becoming increasingly clear that the answer to our question from May, namely “did the luxury bubble just burst” is now a resounding yes as the following boom-to-bust chart of European luxury giants LVMH, Hermes and Kering shows.
Today, the bursting of the luxury bubble took its latest casualty, Estée Lauder, whose already-battered shares plummeted even more, tumbling as much as 21%, their biggest one-day drop in history, after the beauty giant slashed its full-year outlook on troubles in China and the Middle East. The stock has lost almost half of its value in 2023 alone.
As BBG notes, the owner of the MAC and Tom Ford brands has been “floundering in its crucial travel retail business in Asia due to weaker-than-expected demand.” The continued weakness in that channel, as well as an added drag from the Israel-Hamas war, show the beauty company has failed once again to get its footing, meaning it is likely to keep ceding market share to archrival L’Oréal.
For the current fiscal year, Estée Lauder expects net sales in a range of negative 2% to positive 1% versus the prior year, while earnings are seen at $2.08 to $2.35 a share. In August, it had forecast net sales to increase between 5% to 7% and saw earnings of $3.43 to $3.70 a share.
Estée Lauder said net sales in the most recent quarter fell 10%, in line with the downbeat outlook the company forecast in August (the only positive was that the company did a +6% in the Americas vs a Consensus -2%, although that too is about to reverse now that Americans are finally paying down their student loans, credit cards are maxed out and any “excess savings” are long gone).
For the current quarter, the company now expects net sales to decrease between 9% to 11% versus a year ago and sees diluted net earnings between 47 cents and 57 cents a share. The potential risks from disruption in Israel and the Middle East are expected to have a dilutive impact of 8 cents. The company doesn’t break out what portion of revenue it generates in the region.
“The big question, like last quarter, and the one before it, will be: ‘Is this the final cut?’” Bernstein analysts led by Callum Elliott wrote in a research note.
Chief Executive Officer Fabrizio Freda said in a statement that the New York-based company lowered its fiscal 2024 outlook due to slower growth in prestige beauty in Asia travel retail and mainland China, as well as the risk of disruption to its business in Israel and elsewhere in the Middle East.
Remarkably, even though Estée Lauder had already lowered expectations in the previous quarter – after already cutting its outlook several times in the past year leading to another near record price drop back in April – the market was still caught off-guard, sending the stock down the most on record. That’s raised concerns among investors that executives don’t have a good grip on what’s happening in their business.
“We thought that this quarter could be the trough and did not expect another guidance cut,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Nik Modi wrote in a research note. “All the read thrus suggested China was weak, but we thought EL’s guidance last quarter accounted for the weakness. Clearly we were wrong.”
On a call with analysts, CEO Freda said: “We expect calendar year 2023 to be the final and, frankly, painful post-Covid reset period for the company.”
Good luck with that.
Curiously, the cosmetic industry may be the one place where lower-income consumers are holding out better then their higher-income peers. Estée Lauder’s quarterly results are in contrast to competitor L’Oréal, which said late last month that sales were up 4.5% in the three months that ended on Sept. 30. While the French beauty giant – which sells more mass-market items under brands such as Maybelline New York and L’Oréal Paris – has also been hit by the slowdown in duty-free sales in China and South Korea, the business represents a much smaller portion of its revenue versus Estée Lauder.
L’Oreal’s cheaper products have sold more briskly than items from its more expensive brands as inflation-weary consumers have become pickier. Estée Lauder, meanwhile, sells more higher-end products and on Wednesday cited the “slower-than-expected recovery of overall prestige beauty.”
Which brings us to a key question: has the consumer finally hit a brick wall? While we are confident that recent results indeed confirm that consumers are virtually tapped out, a slightly more cheerful take comes from Goldman consumer trader Scott Feiler who tries to present today’s dismal results in a slightly better light.
Here is his take on today’s earnings onslaught:
Bottom-Line Intact for 3Q: The magnitude of top-line upside has begun to slow, but companies have pretty continued to beat across the board on the EPS/EBITDA line for 3Q. Even the names with the biggest downward reactions this morning so far in the pre (Wayfair, EL, CCEP, GOOS) largely all beat EPS for this quarter.
Top-Line Upside is slowing though: While bottom-line remains intact (for 3Q at least), the top-line upside does appear to be harder to come by. See YUM, EAT, EL, GOOS etc for prints that largely saw in-line sales, even as EPS handily beat.
Restaurants remain a relatively bright spot in the US: YUM (+1.5% comp beat), FWRG (40 bps comp beat) and EAT (20 bps comp beat at Chili’s) are all “fine” still with still constructive commentary, even as traffic has slowed some.
China Unsurprisingly called out as weak: 2 of the biggest stock disappointments this morning are EL (called out incremental headwinds from a slower-than-expected recovery of overall prestige beauty in mainland China) and YUMC (said they observed softening consumer demand emerged in late September through October).
The 2 biggest single names in focus in our IB chats – EL and Wayfair.
For EL, the guidance cut only 1 quarter in is well below any of the worst estimates we had heard. The only “positive” is the bulk of it was blamed on China (somewhat known) and the Middle East. They did a +6% in the Americas vs a Consensus -2%, and so we think a focus on the 930AM call will be whether there were shipment benefits that helped that figure. Despite the better Americas and Jason’s note titled ““bottom perhaps finally found,” the overwhelming feedback continued to be negative this morning on lack of conviction in an EPS bottom.
For Wayfair, the stock dropped hard as soon as the release hit. A ton of inbounds from most asking why. Yes, revenues missed for 3Q but it was only a 1% miss vs consensus and the bogey, while margins beat by about 150 bps. The big concern here seems to be less about margins (most understand a beat was likely) and more about top-line, especially fears around 4Q. On the call, they spoke to QTD gross revenues running around flat. We think expectations were well below the consensus +5% for the full 4Q, so agree that the -10% move lower in the pre is a bit surprising. This is a shoot first, ask questions later type tape though.
Needless to say, that is hardly the kind of tape one sees at the start of bull markets.
end
Powerhouse Schwab announces 2,000 layoffs. And the goofball Powell thinks the uSA ecnomy is strong?
(zerohedge)
Schwab Announces Over 2,000 Layoffs To ‘Maintain Competitive Edge’
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 01:35 PM
Update (Wednesday):
A Charles Schwab spokesperson confirmed to Bloomberg that up to 6% of its 35,900-member workforce (or about 2,154 employees) were recently laid off.
“These were hard but necessary steps to ensure Schwab remains highly competitive, with industry-leading levels of efficiency, well into the future,” the spokesperson said in an emailed statement, adding, “We worked diligently to ensure affected employees were treated with care and respect throughout this difficult process.”
The cuts were first reported by The Wall Street Journal on Monday night (read the previous update below).
The last time Schwab went on a hiring – then firing spree was the Dot Com bubble. It appears the pattern is repeating.
According to the layoff tracker website Layoffs.FYI, hundreds of thousands of tech employees have been fired in the last two years.
Charles Schwab, the largest publicly traded US brokerage firm, began laying off employees on Monday in an effort to streamline its business model by reducing expenses ahead of next year, which could be full of turbulence in financial markets. This comes as the market’s excitement in meme stocks, SPACs, IPOs, and crypto, which soared in 2020-21, has since plunged due to a rising interest rate environment.
Charles Schwab on Monday began laying off employees across the company.
Schwab, the largest publicly traded US brokerage, didn’t disclose how many employees were affected in an internal message seen by The Wall Street Journal. Some remaining employees will have new jobs or managers, according to the message.
In the message, CEO Walt Bettinger and President Rick Wurster said:
“We know this has been a challenging year, and that today was hard. We also know the work needed to come through this change even stronger than before is just beginning.”
Perhaps trouble at Schwab comes as retail traders, badly bruised from holding worthless meme stocks, lost interest in financial markets this year.
Besides retail’s waning interest in markets, the company has been under scrutiny from shareholders about deposit flight driven by higher interest rates.
Schwab shares are down 40% since peaking at the $84 handle in March 2021.
In August, Schwab detailed in a regulatory filing about plans to slash its headcount and downsize corporate offices to reduce operating costs. These proposed cuts are expected to save the company $500 million annually.
The last time Schwab hired too many people was during the Dot Com bubble. We all know what happened next…
Rumors on the anonymous jobs forum Blind said the layoffs at Schwab include “lots of people in the company’s tech division.”
Tulsi Gabbard: LGBTQ+ Activists At Pro-Palestine Marches “Don’t Understand” Islamists Want To Kill Them
Former Democratic Representative Tusi Gabbard has called out the hypocrisy of LGBTQ+ activists attending pro-Palestine marches alongside radical Islamists who literally want gay and trans people to be murdered.
Appearing on Laura Ingraham’s show Tuesday, Gabbard noted that “Democrats, they have called people like me an Islamophobe for many years just for speaking the truth about radical Islam. About the threat that this Islamism poses to the freedom and peace of security of the American people and people around the world.”
Gabbard continued, “we are so concerned about Biden’s open borders and the fact that we have got millions of people coming in who are not vetted in any way, shape, or form who have not been checked.”
Ingraham interjected, “they say you can’t call it a clash of civilisations, why not? It is a clash of civilizations. No women’s rights. No belief in pluralism. The dignity of the individual. Free expression. None of that. That’s not on the table.”
The former Congresswoman replied, “And that is the hypocrisy of seeing these LGBTQIA activists out there holding and waving the trans flags combined with the Palestinian flag.”
“That’s a new level of stupid,” Ingraham asserted.
Gabbard replied, “They don’t know and understand what this Islamist ideology is, this radical Islam ideology where they actually want to kill people. They want to kill those people specifically.”
The BoJ kept its NIRP policy (-0.1% benchmark rate) but it loosened the 1% cap rate on JGBs.
Japan’s yen slides broadly as BOJ policy tweak seen inadequate BOJ said it would keep the 10-year government bond yield around 0% set under its yield curve control (YCC), but re-defined 1.0% as a loose “upper bound” rather than a rigid cap. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yen-rises-speculation-boj-policy-004706293.html
Yen Hits 15-Year Low Versus Euro After BOJ Underwhelms Investors The yen extended declines against the dollar after BOJ adds flexibility to its yield control program while falling short of market speculation of a greater change… The Japanese currency rose above 160 per euro for the first time since August 2008 and weakened past 150 against the dollar after the BOJ on Tuesday removed a 1% yield cap on its daily bond purchases. This leaves the yen open to the possibility of the Japanese government intervening to curb further sharp movements… https://t.co/6ISlsJ1cdB
@LiveSquawk: BoJ CPI Current F’cast Q4: 2.8% (prev 2.5%) – CPI Current F’cast 1-Year Ahead Q4: 2.8% (prev 1.9%) – CPI Current F’cast 2-Year Ahead Q4: 1.7% (prev 1.6%) – GDP Current F’cast Q4: 2.0% (prev 1.3%) – GDP Current F’cast 1-Year Ahead Q4: 1.0% (prev 1.2%) – GDP Current F’cast 2-Year Ahead Q4: 1.0% (prev 1.0%) https://boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/gor2310a.pdf
US economic data released on Tuesday showed more inflation than expected.The Q3 Employment Cost Index increased to 1.1% from the prior and expected 1.0%.The FHFA House Price Index increased 0.6% m/m in Aug.; 0.5% was expected; 0.8% priorThe Aug. S&P Global CoreLogic 20-City home prices survey jumped 1.01% m/m & 2.16% y/y; 0.8% m/m & 1.7% y/y were consensus. The Conference Board’s October Consumer Confidence fell to 102.6 from 104.3; 100.5 was expected. However, inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased to 5.9% from 5.7%. The Present Situation fell to 143.1 from 146.2. Expectations fell to 76.6 from 76.4
For the first time, Orange Juice closed above 400 (on 10/30; hit 201.70 Tuesday and then tumbled). We hope Billy Ray Valentine and Louis Winthorpe got it right! PS – ‘Soft commodities’ have been on fire! McDonald’s, Chipotle hiking menu prices after California raises fast-food minimum wage Newsom recently signed into law a measure that would give wage earners a $20-an-hour minimum…Beginning in April, California’s estimated 500,000 fast food workers will be paid a minimum of $20 per hour — up from the previous minimum wage of $16.21… https://trib.al/wKTMKiN
Israel must act against Hezbollah, but only after Hamas – Israel security adviser Israel’s enemies want to see it make the mistake of spreading itself to thin, Hanegbi said, was he explained that Israel doesn’t want to fall into that trap… https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-771039
Egypt’s PM says thecountry is “prepared to sacrifice millions of lives” to ensure “no one encroaches upon” its territory – WSJ (an apparent response to an Israeli plan to transfer Gaza Palestinians to Sinai)
The World Can’t Solve the Israel-Hamas War without Egypt Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, like many of his predecessors, is deeply hostile to Hamas, which sprung out of Egypt’s often-outlawed Muslim Brotherhood movement… Although Egypt is not sympathetic to Hamas, the militant group has a record of reaching understandings with the Egyptian military… https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/24/israel-hamas-war-egypt-sisi-rafah-crossing-muslim-brotherhood-sinai/
Fox’s @TreyYingst: Statement from the Israeli military on operations in Jabalia: “Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), led by the Givati Brigade, have seized control of a Hamas military stronghold in western Jabalia, in the northern part of the Gaza Strip… approximately 50 militants were killed; meanwhile, ground forces across the Strip continue anti-terror activities… The stronghold is located in western Jabalia and is used by the Jabalia battalion of Hamas for training aimed at carrying out terror operations. The site contains firing infrastructures and terror tunnels used, among other things, for the movement of militants to the coastal area. Additionally, the stronghold houses various weapons that are used by the militants… Additionally, intelligence materials were found in the compound. By the end of the operation, the forces had taken control of the area.” “A short while ago, IDF fighter jets, acting on ISA intelligence, killed Ibrahim Biari, the Commander of Hamas’ Central Jabaliya Battalion. Biari was one of the leaders responsible for sending “Nukbha” terrorist operatives to Israel to carry out the murderous terror attack on October 7th…. Biari oversaw all military operations in the northern Gaza Strip since the IDF entered. He was also responsible for sending the terrorists who carried out the 2004 terrorist attack in the Ashdod Port in which 13 Israelis were murdered, and was responsible for directing rocket fire at Israel, and advancing numerous attacks against the IDF, over the last two decades. His elimination was carried out as part of a wide-scale strike on terrorists and terror infrastructure belonging to the Central Jabaliya Battalion… Underground terror infrastructure embedded beneath the buildings, used by the terrorists, also collapsed after the strike. The IDF reiterates its call to the residents of the area to move south for their safety.”
@KassyDillon: Facts about the Jabalya refugee camp. 1. It’s not a tent city like you usually think of with “refugee camps.” It’s a neighborhood with buildings that has been around since 1948 (see picture). 2. It’s where the first intifada began in 1987. 3. It’s a well-known Hamas stronghold
@visegrad24: Yemen has declared it is officially at war with Israel! https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1719411211723252014 Yemen is in the midst of a humanitarian crisis, with much of its population facing hunger. Instead of resolving this crisis, Yemen has just declared war on Israel and is firing rockets on Israel. Do Yemeni leaders hate Israelis more than they love their own people? The World Food Programme estimated in 2022 that 17.4 million Yemenis struggle with food insecurity. The WFP projected that would increase to 19 million Yemenis by the end of 2022 and described this level of hunger as “unprecedented.”
ESZ opened soft on Monday night and traded sideways until they sank after 20:00 ET. After hitting a daily low of 4166.75 at 2:10 ET, the rally for the European open commenced. ESZs hit 4199.75 at 8:21 ET. The dump commenced early due to inflationary US economic data. ESZs fell to 4171.75 at 10:02 ET. Dip buyers and October performance gamers then drove ESZs to 4192.50 at 10:19 ET.
ESZs retreated to 4177.75 at 10:37 ET. It was time for the 2nd Hour Reversal. ESZs rallied to 4195.00 near 11:00 ET. Liquidation into the 11:30 ET European close took ESZs down to 4182.50 at 11:35 ET. ESZS then jumped on an AFP report that Hamas would release its hostages “in the next few days” – a very convenient report for the end of October! ESZs hit a daily high of 4215.00 at 15:00 ET.
ESZs then went inert. ESZs traded sideways into the close. However, after the NYSE close, ESZs slid 13 handles. The after-NYSE hours decline suggests that some manipulators got ‘the marks’ and then sold.
Fangs dropped early due to Nvidia, which sank as much as 4.6% by 9:42 ET. The Wall Street Journal reported that Nvidia might be forced to cancel up to $5B of Chinese orders for advanced AI chips due to new US restrictions. Nvidia rallied after the early tumble because the WSJ story was largely old news.
Caterpillar shares fall on equipment demand concerns despite earnings beat The Texas-based manufacturer’s shares fell as much as 6.3% as dealer inventories rose for the third-consecutive quarter at the same time Caterpillar’s order backlog shrunk, indicating that equipment demand may have peaked… http://reut.rs/49jE9eI
JetBlue sinks to 12-year low as airline forecasts more losses, Spirit antitrust trial beginshttps://t.co/8a1cQmI423
Positive aspects of previous session The manipulation to game October performance combined with a dubious report that Hamas would release hostages to boost stocks.
Negative aspects of previous session Fangs were down sharply early Wage and food inflation is up ticking.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What happens next in the Middle East?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open:Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4180.82 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4195.55; 4153.12
Feds downplay stroke risk from COVID-flu vaccine combo discovered by their own researchers Head of vaccine safety office says he won’t get the two shots together. Spike protein “could represent the key to understanding the molecular pathway of the heart conduction abnormality,” Italian paper says. The CDC recommends getting a flu and COVID-19 vaccines at the same time, deeming this “coadministration” not only convenient but “safe.” Its own researchers won’t go that far, and neither will the FDA’s, including the head of the agency’s vaccine safety office… https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/feds-downplay-stroke-risk-covid-flu-vaccine-combo-discovered-their-own
Pfizer reports a net loss of $2.38 billion in Q3, revenue down 42% compared to last year – CNBC
US and Israel Weigh Peacekeepers for the Gaza Strip After Hamas Multinational force could include American, UK, French troops Another option would put Gaza under United Nations oversight The people said the conversations have been impelled by a sense of urgency to come up with a plan for the future of Gaza now that a ground invasion has begun… A third option would be temporary governance of the strip under a UN umbrella…but Israel views it as impractical, according to a person familiar with Israel’s thinking, who added that Israel believes that little good has come from the world body… https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-and-israel-weigh-peacekeepers-for-the-gaza-strip-after-hamas/ar-AA1jaPiB
GOP Sen. @MarshaBlackburn: The White House admitted Hamas is holding nearly 500 Americans hostage in Gaza. (So, the WH was duplicitous is saying only 20 or so Americans were missing.)
@PhilipWegmann: White House said yesterday “less than 10” Americans were hostages. Blackburn’s office tells me they consider the 500 Americans who admin says are trapped in Gaza (the “400 American citizens and their families” Blinken referenced) to be hostages. Why? They cite 18 U.S. Code § 1203
GOP Sen. @TomCottonAR: It would be of enormous value—to Hamas. The White House is pressuring Israel to resupply the terrorists holding Americans hostage.
@sentdefender: U.S. Defense Officials are still trying to claim that the roughly 30 Rocket and Drone Attacks on U.S. Troops in Eastern Syrian and Western Iraq since October 7th, which has Killed at least 1 American Contractor and Wounded an Unknown number of Soldiers, is in no way related to the War in Israel despite there being Tons of Evidence that is False. A Rocket Attack has just been launched against U.S. Troops at the Al-Omar Oil Fields in Eastern Syria, this is the Second Attack on the Base in the last 5 Hours.
Today – The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged again. The unknowns are the FOMC Communique and Powell’s ensuing press conference. Will the divide between Fed leftists and other Fed officials be displayed? How big will the divide appear? Normally, if the FOMC Communique is neutral or dovish, Powell tends to be somewhat hawkish to neutral the effect of an equity-friendly communique.
Traders want to be long into the FOMC Communique and for expected start-of November buying at or near the NYSE close. The US Treasury Auction of 2, 10, & 30s could impact trading.
ESZs are -12.75 and USZs are -27/32 (ahead of big Treasury Auction) at 20:38 ET.
Expected Economic data: Oct ADP Employment Change 150k; Oct S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 50; Oct ISM Mfg. 49, Prices Paid 45, Employment 50.6, New Orders 49.8; Sept JOLTS Job Openings 9.4m; Construction Spending 0.4% m/m; FOMC Communique 14:00, Powell Press Conference 14:30 ET
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4353; 100-day MA: 4404; 150-day MA: 4318; 200-day MA: 4242 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,913; 100-day MA: 34,278; 150-day MA: 34,013; 200-day MA: 33,800 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3828.58 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4425.18 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4225.30 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4150.44 triggers a sell signal
Reuters: U.S. President Joe Biden would veto a House of Representatives Republican bill to provide aid to Israel but not Ukraine, which includes cuts to funding for the Internal Revenue Service, were it to pass both chambers, the White House said on Tuesday.
@TheRabbitHole84: An estimated 32% of Palestinians support a two state solution. Even if that’s what the west prefers, it doesn’t seem like a two state solution is something they would be content with. If most Palestinians don’t want a two state solution, then exactly what is the “Free Palestine” hoping to achieve?https://twitter.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1719153332001112240
@IsraelWarRoom: The interviewer asks senior Hamas official Musa Abu Marzouk: When you built 500 km of tunnels in Gaza, why didn’t you build shelters for civilians from the attacks? Abu Marzouk answers: The tunnels are for us (Hamas). The citizens in the Gaza Strip are under the responsibility of the United Nations… https://twitter.com/IsraelWarRoom/status/1719289803428986962
Trump used Forbes list to try to bolster bid to buy Buffalo Bills: ‘He gave us handouts’ – while refusing to reveal his financials, it surfaced in court Tuesday… Kise highlighted testimony from Deutsche Bank executive Nicholas Haigh saying that loaning money to the real-estate tycoon was a “good credit decision.“ But Justice Arthur Engoron fired back, “Several witnesses have testified that they would have acted differently had they known the statements of financial condition were fraudulent… https://nypost.com/2023/10/31/news/trump-used-forbes-list-to-try-to-bolster-bid-to-buy-buffalo-bills-witness/
Youngkin Boycotts Eventbrite over Removal of Riley Gaines Event Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin announced Monday that he is boycotting Eventbrite after the live-events company removed former NCAA swimmer Riley Gaines’s event on protecting women’s sports from its platform, while allowing events celebrating Hamas terrorism to remain… https://www.nationalreview.com/news/youngkin-boycotts-eventbrite-over-removal-of-riley-gaines-event/
This video was done by Jonathan Cahn about two weeks ago. It has received 1.3 million views–so far. It is a stunning piece of Biblical analysis on Israel and Hamas that only 7-time best-selling author Jonathan Cahn can deliver. Did you know the word Hamas is in the Bible? Did you know Israel was attacked from what is now known as Gaza in ancient times? Did you know the Biblical giant Goliath came from Gaza in ancient times? Cahn breaks down all the stunning Gaza, Hamas and Israel history and brings you up to date on why it is still relevant today. Please take time to watch. It’s only a bit more than 30 minutes long and well worth the time. Once I started watching, I could not stop.
Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com recommends this well-done Biblical video analysis from best-selling author Jonathan Cahn.
The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Carney (DDG 64) fires a Standard Missile (SM) 2 to defeat a combination of Houthi missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles in the Red Sea, Oct. 19, 2023. (credit: Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Aaron Lau/US Navy)
Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi (R) and Chinese leader Xi Jinping pose for a photo on the sidelines of a meeting at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on Sept. 16, 2022. (Shen Hong/Xinhua via AP)
A demonstrator cheers and chants as smoke bombs go off during a protest in support of Palestine, in Vancouver, B.C., on Oct. 21, 2023. (Ethan Cairns/The Canadian Press)
Iranian pro-government supporters participate in a rally to express their support for Palestinians, in Iran, on Oct. 18, 2023. (Hossein Beris/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
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