NOV 2//GOLD CLOSED UP $6.55 TO $1985.90//SILVER WAS UP 4 CENTS TO $22.77//PLATINUM WAS UP $1.55 TO $926.50 WITH PALLADIUM UP $4.15 TO $1111.50//EXCELLENT GOLD COMMENTARIES TONIGHT FROM CHRIS POWELL OF GATA AND EGON VON GREYERZ//BANK OF ENGLAND KEEPS INTEREST RATES STEADY//WIND FARMS IN THE UK A TOTAL BUST//MIGRANTS LIVING ON THE STREETS AT RECORD HIGHS IN THE UK//UPDATES OF ISRAEL VS HAMAS: ISRAEL SURROUNDS GAZA CITY AS THEY TRY THE LONG AND ARDUOUS TASK OF ELIMINATING THE ENEMY//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE INJURY UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//SLAY NEWS ETC//USA ECONOMIC DATA//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
555 C BNP PARIBAS SEC 1 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 7 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2 661 C JP MORGAN 2 685 C RJ OBRIEN 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 19 10
TOTAL: 21 21 MONTH TO DATE: 1,410
JPMorgan stopped 2/21 contracts.
FOR NOV.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV/2023. CONTRACT: 21 NOTICES FOR 2100 OZ or 0.0653 TONNES
total notices so far: 1410 contracts for 141,000 oz (4.3856 tonnes)
FOR NOV:
SILVER NOTICES:15 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 75,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 246 for 1,230,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $6.55//
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/
INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 4 CENTS AT THE SLV// BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.924 OZ
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 439.993 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY SMALL SIZED 281CONTRACTS TO 126,830 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL $0.11 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. WE HAD SOME SPEC SHORT COVERING EPISODE IN WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING.. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A HUMONGOUS SIZED 2283 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 2283 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.11). BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1058 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE SPEC SHORTS TRIED AGAIN DESPERATELY TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALLS WITH LITTLE SUCCESS.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS( 418 CONTRACTS FOR NIL OZ) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.430 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 145,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP +
//NEW STANDING IS THUS 1.770 MILLION OZ
//SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 2283CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL – REMOVED 359 CONTRACTS (the cme will no longer provide preliminary no to be except through a paywall)
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 2 days, total 718 contracts: OR 3.590 MILLION OZ (359 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 3.590 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 3.590 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 281 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.11 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD 418 EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 418 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. . WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT OF 1.432 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 145,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW STANDING 1.770,000 OZ/// /// WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1058 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUMONGOUS SIZED 2283 CONTRACTS//SOME FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT A HUGE (2283) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 15 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 75,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 1191 CONTRACTS TO 474,617 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,541 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED 309 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 1191 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $6.15 LOSS IN PRICE//WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV. AT 4.3514 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP // ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR$6.15 LOSS IN PRICEWITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2672 OI CONTRACTS (8.311 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3863CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 474,926
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2981 CONTRACTS WITH 885 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 3863 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2981CONTRACTS OR9.272TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE 3,431 CONTRACTS)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3863 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (882) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2981 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV. AT 4.3514 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 300 OZ QUEUE JUMP: NEW STANDING 4.473 TONNES + .2643 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK //THUS NEW TOTAL: 4.7373 TONNES // /// 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AND SOME TAS LIQUIDATION BUT WE HAD SOME SPEC SHORT COVERINGS DURING THE COMEX SESSION //4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 3431 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
NOV
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 7965 CONTRACTS OR 796,500 OZ OR 24.88 TONNES IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3983 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 2TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 24.88 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 24.88/3550 x 100% TONNES 0.700% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 24.88 TONNES//
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 281 CONTRACTS OI TO 126,830 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE A FAIR 418 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 418and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 418 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 281 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 418 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 699 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 3.495MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALL $0.11 LOSS IN PRICE …..(SOME ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERINGS)
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING//WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.67 PTS OR 0.75% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 128.81 PTS OR 0.75% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 348.24 PTS OR 1.10% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.00 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.3178 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.3258 /Oil DOWN TO 81/16 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 85.17/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1191CONTRACTS TO 474,617 DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.10 ON WEDNESDAY.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 3863 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 3863 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3863 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2692 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3863LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1191 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.10//WEDNESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A HUGE 3431 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: NOV (4.7373 TONNES (ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $6.10) //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 2981TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. IT DID HAVE SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING WITH THE MASSIVE PRICE INCREASE.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 8.31 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT. (4.3514 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 300 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTALS STANDING:4.473 TONNES + .2673 EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NEW TOTALS: 4.7373 TONNES + ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $6.10. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE SPECULATORS HAVE GONE MASSIVELY SHORT WITH OUR BANKERS NET LONG. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOW HOW MUCH GOLD WILL THE BANKERS PULL FROM OUR SHORT SPECULATORS. SPECULATORS YESTERDAY ADDED TO THEIR HUGE SHORTS.
WE HAD REMOVED 309 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2672 CONTRACTS OR 267200 OZ OR 8.31 TONNES.
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1410 notices 141,000 OZ 4.3856TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: 0 oz
customer deposits: 0
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 customer withdrawals
total withdrawals nil oz
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.
For the front month of NOVEMBER we have an oi of 49 contracts having LOST 75 contracts. We had 78 contracts filed on WEDNESDAY, so we gained 3 contracts or an additional 300 oz will stand for delivery at the comex in this NON active delivery month of NOVEMBER. Our short speculators have been met with physical delivery demands by the bank. The only way they can obtain gold is through these EFP’s where delivery is taken in London on a T + 2 basis.
December LOST 5827 contracts DOWN to 365,718 contracts.
JAN. gained 3 contracts up to 9 contracts.
We had 21 contracts filed for today representing 2100 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 21 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1410 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (49 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 21 x 100 oz per contract equals 143,800 OZ OR 4.473 TONNES +.2673 EX. FOR RISK = 4.7373 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the novcontract month: No of notices filed so far (1410) x 100 oz + (49) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (21) x 100 oz) which equals 143,800oz standing OR 4.473 TONNES + .2673 EX FOR RISK = 4.7373 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 4.7373 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE BUT GENERALLY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH. (OCT). Somebody is after a considerable amount of gold from the comex.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED: 19,916,440.753 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,066,880.423 (313.12 tonnes)..
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,849,560.329 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,178,625(REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 254.389 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
NOV 2
//2023// THE NOV 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
181,340.389 oz
CNT
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
547,304.018 OZ CNT HSBC
No of oz served today (contracts)
15 CONTRACT(S) (75,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
108 contracts (540,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
246 Contracts (1,230,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: 0
total: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into CNTL 181,340.389 oz
total customer deposit 181,340.389 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.441 million oz/267.503 million or 50.24%
Comex withdrawals 2
i) Out of HSBC 80,363.540 oz
ii) Out of CNT 466,940.478 oz
total: 547.304.048 oz
adjustments: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 38.229 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 267.809 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF NOV /2023 OI: 123 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 9 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 20 NOTICES FILED
ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED 29 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 145,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR SILVER IN NOVEMBER
DEC. LOST 855 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 93,089 .
JANUARY GAINED 4 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 660
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 15 for 75,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 46,191//poor
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 61,578 poor
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in nov. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 246 x 5,000 oz = 1,230,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (123) and the number of notices served upon today 15 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV/2023 contract month: 246 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV (123) – number of notices served upon today (15 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month equates to 1.770 MILLION OZ
There are 38.229 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.49 TONNES
OCT 31/859.49 TONNES//
OCT 30/WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES
OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD! //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES
OCT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE 15.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD! //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
OCT 19/WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.19 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $32.55 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.43 TONNES
OCT 17/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 855.45 TONNES
OCT 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.92 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 855.45 TONNES
OCT 13/WITH GOLD UP $57.60 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES
OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.37 TONNES
OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $11.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: / /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $30.60 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.81 TONNES
OCT 6/WITH GOLD UP $13.05 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.58 TONNES
OCT 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.35 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:HUGE CHANGES: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// /// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.31 TONNES
OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES
OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/// : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.08 TONNES
OCT 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.35 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: LD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,64 TONNES
SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $XXX TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.31 TONNES OF GOLD OUT 05 THE GLD/ : // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.52 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 861.51 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
NOV 2/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.924 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.993 MILLION OZ
NOV 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 916,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.917 MILLION OZ
OCT 31/442.833 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY
OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.750 MILLION OZ
OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 641,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.750 MILLION OZ
OCT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.871 MILLION OZ
OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.658 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.871 MILLION OZ
OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP XXX CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
OCT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.207 MILLLION OZ FROM THE SLV///// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
OCT 17/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 447.736 MILLION OZ
OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.664 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 447.730 MILLION OZ
OCT 13/WITH SILVER UP 90 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.375 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.394 MILLION OZ
OCT 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.825 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.769 MILLION OZ
OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A WITHDRAWAL OF .366 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.594 MILLION OZ
OCT 10/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 1.833 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 452.960 MILLION OZ
OCT 6/WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A DEPOSIT OF 0.916 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 451.127 MILLION OZ
OCT 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.328 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.211 MILLION OZ
OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
OCT 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
OCT 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 98 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. : // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
SEPT 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.183 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.883 MILLION OZ
SEPT 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.066 MILLION OZ
SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF .641 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: // /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.392 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 439.993 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
A good account as to the train wreck facing Japan
(Schiff gold)
“A Disaster Guaranteed To Happen” – Japan’s Slow-Motion Train Wreck
Japan is in the midst of a slow-motion train wreck. The country has a massive national debt and it is starting to feel the pressure of rising interest rates. In his podcast, Peter Schiff talked about the situation in Japan and pointed out some disturbing parallels to what’s happening in the US.
The Japanese yen against the dollar has fallen to the lowest level in more than 20 years. The yen is tanking because of the ongoing money creation program by the Japanese central bank. It is still running quantitative easing in order to support its bond market.
The national debt in Japan is around $9 trillion. That is well over 200% of the country’s GDP. Interest payments on the debt make up about a quarter of the country’s government expenditures. But that’s with extremely low bond yields. If yields were to increase to 4%, the debt payment would grow larger than the current expenditures for the entire government. Peter called it a “slow-motion train wreck.”
Obviously, this is a disaster not just waiting to happen, but it is guaranteed to happen.”
The Japanese central bank carefully controls bond yields. It is currently targeted at 100 basis points. While still a low yield in the big scheme of things, it is high for Japanese bonds. Peter said the problem is that 100 basis points aren’t going to work any better than 50.
Nobody in their right mind is going to lend the Japanese government money for 10 years for 1% when inflation is already 3% based on the way they measure. it.”
Ironically, the Japanese government and central bank view this higher inflation as a victory over “too low” inflation.
They’ve already lost. They’re not victorious over anything. Because, remember, low inflation was never the problem that Japan had. They had problems, but low inflation wasn’t one of them. But now they have a high inflation problem. This is a real problem, especially when you have as much debt as the Japanese government does, and the market is starting to adjust because interest payments are going to skyrocket.”
The Japanese central bank is in a predicament because if it stops buying bonds, yields will spike even more. That means the Japanese government either has to raise taxes or cut spending, or the central bank just has to keep printing money and buying bonds.
It becomes a self-perpetuating spiral because the more bonds the Bank of Japan buys to keep rates from going up, the more upward pressure is on rates because they have to create inflation and drive down the value of the yen in order to prop up the price of these bonds and keep the interest expense artificially low for the government.”
The Bank of Japan currently owns about 45% of the country’s outstanding debt. That’s about double the percentage of US national debt the Federal Reserve owns.
Imagine what would happen if the Bank of Japan switched to quantitative tightening and tried to shrink its balance sheet.
And yet people still think the US can get away with a massive national debt because Japan has. As Peter said in a previous podcast, the US is more like Argentina than Japan.
There are other things that enabled Japan to get away with this much debt for as long as it has. But they didn’t get away with it in the sense that they’re not going to have to suffer the consequences. They’re going to suffer the consequences. They’re just going to be worse, but they’re going to be felt later.”
But in one sense, the US is similar to Japan. Its national debt is also a ticking time bomb. America is also buried in debt and it’s about to see its own interest payments go through the roof.
In the 1990s, then-Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin began borrowing using low-interest, short-term debt. Since interest rates were artificially low, this lowered the federal government’s interest payments even further. It was a short-sighted policy that worked as long as rates remained low. But rates aren’t low anymore. Over the next three years, 50% of the debt matures. It will have to be refinanced at much higher interest rates. That means Uncle Sam’s interest payments are poised to go through the roof.
We are on the inevitable road to perdition for the world economy & financial system, ending in a potential global conflict of uncontrollable proportions.
Evil begets evil as The Cycle of Evil hits countries at the end of an uncontrollable debt expansion.
The pattern throughout history has always been the same – countries and empires, without fail, become victims of their own success -failure, whether it was the Mongols, Ottomans or the British.
As real growth ceases, a country starts to finance expansion with debt until it cannot even afford the interest on the debt, never mind the capital which it has no intention to repay.
At some point, the people, fearing a war or terrorist attack will approve of the leader’s fear mongering by supporting unlimited debt issuance. This is now happening in the US with regard to Ukraine and Israel.
Neither the US nor Europe is taking a single step to remedy the situation. Both are now in the Cycle of Evil of more deficits, more debt, higher interest costs, leading to more deficits, more debt higher interest costs, leading to ……………..
The Cycle of Evil is also accompanied by decadence and moral decline where leaders invent problems that are not real such as climate change, ESG (environmental, social and governance), forced vaccines and incarcerations, 25 new genders and other woke issues etc.
Few Americans understand that the next stage of the Cycle of Evil is about to hit them.
And even fewer Europeans have a clue that they will be dragged down into the same debt collapse quagmire.
The next stage will involve many banks failing, more than the FDIC or government can afford to save without destroying both the Currency and the Bond Market,
A collapsing currency and sovereign debt paper that no investor wants to touch with a bargepole is hardly the right climate for massive debt issuance.
Most sovereign investors have already realised that they don’t want US debt at any interest rate.
So that means even higher interest rates, more debt issuance as the Cycle of Evil eventually turns to a “Final Collapse” as von Mises described:
THE CYCLE OF EVIL CONTAINS MORE CATACLYSMIC COMPONENTS THAN ANY SIMILAR CYCLE IN HISTORY.
Let us summarise where the world is:
GLOBAL CONFLICT
We have two wars both capable of leading to a major global conflict plus high risk of terrorism and jihads in the West. Just as with most global/world wars, there is no attempt at finding peace solutions.
To make things worse, there is not a single Statesman in the West capable of taking a lead in solving the conflicts.
DEBT COLLAPSE
We have a global debt burden of $330 trillion plus derivatives totalling $1.5-3 quadrillion with debt growing exponentially, especially in the US. This will very soon develop into a debt crisis and collapse of a heavily leveraged Western world plus Japan and China and also emerging markets.
CIVIL UNREST and CIVIL WAR
The downturn and eventual collapse in the global economy will lead to poverty, famine and misery for a great number of people in the West and Emerging Markets.
UKRAINE WAR
This war started as a local conflict but with a US backed putsch in 2014, throwing out the democratically elected Russian friendly leader, this was the beginning of a war between Russia and the US and not a local war.
The Minsk agreement brokered by Germany and France was supposed to settle the matter but as Merkel recently admitted, the intent was never to create peace but to give enough time for Ukraine to arm with the help of the US.
The US forced Europe to take sides, in spite of Europe’s (especially Germany’s) dependence on Russian energy.
We can blame Russia for invading or we can blame the US for provoking Russia.
Rather than to go into all the arguments who is right and who is wrong, best to accept that we now have a global conflict stemming from the Ukraine situation. The US has a reluctant Europe on its side – a Europe which is militarily and economically weak. Russia has China, Iran, North Korea and a few others, most probably a militarily superior group.
A bankrupt USA just sends more money and weapons but has zero intent to send peacekeepers.
Thus there is no end in sight but the independent reporting tells us that Ukraine is unlikely to have a chance against the superior Russian war machine.
In the meantime an estimated 500,000 troops in total have died plus many more wounded and civilian casualties.
And still no peace attempt.
If the warring country’s leaders led from the front, which has been common in history, they would probably be less inclined to sacrifice more lives including their own.
ISRAEL – PALESTINE WAR
This region has had ongoing conflicts throughout history. It was insoluble before 1948 and has become even more complex since 1948 when Israel was created.
Again, we have major powers involved with primarily the US and Europe supporting Israel and Iran, Turkey and major parts of the Arab-Muslim world supporting Palestine and also Russia.
The US is sending two aircraft carriers to the Mediterranean to assist Israel. But as a military expert pointed out, these are in modern warfare just two floating bathtubs which can be taken out easily by two missiles from for example Iran.
In this conflict there are also many casualties on both sides plus a massive number of Palestinians being homeless with little food or even medical help.
What makes this conflict even more serious is the major support in the West for the plight of the Palestinians. Massive protests in many countries can easily escalate to serious clashes or even civil war.
In addition, we can be certain that the massive migration from Muslim countries to the West will also contain many militant cells which could easily create havoc in the US and in many European countries.
Both Europe and the US basically has an open border policy for any migrant who wants to enter. But neither continent has the ability to properly take care of the migrants. This will risk both continents to be destabilised with both migrants and the native population not accepting the other side.
CHINA – TAIWAN
It is unlikely that China will abandon its claim that Taiwan rightfully belongs to them.
The US is already busy with two wars, assisting with an array of military equipment plus $100s of billions of financial aid. A third conflict with major US military involvement would be extremely unwelcome to the US government.
But that is exactly the right time to strike from China’s point of view.
China knows of course that seizing Taiwan, is likely to involve major US sanctions leading to reduced or no US imports from China leading to a major fall or collapse of global trade. It is doubtful that Europe or the rest of the world would comply with these sanctions.
It would also lead to freezing of China’s assets in the US of $1.7 trillion, including treasuries of $850 billion offset by US direct investments in China.
But if China seizes Taiwan, they would control 60% of the world’s semiconductor production and more importantly 90% of advanced semiconductors. This would be a very serious blow to US strategic industries including military equipment.
THE CYCLE OF EVIL HOLDS ALL COMPONENTS TO CREATE HELL ON EARTH
It is intellectually fascinating but humanly depressing to watch how all the pieces fall into place for a global conflict of a magnitude greater than WW1 or WW2.
It is frightening to see how one component after the next falls into place in the Cycle of Evil.
Nobody realised that the shooting of the Archduke of Austria-Hungary Franz Ferdinand in 1914 would be the catalyst for WW1.
Nor did anyone understand that Germany’s invasion of Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia in 1938-9 and of Poland on September 1, 1939 would lead to WW2.
The two major conflicts in Ukraine and Israel-Palestine today with Taiwan looming combined with no attempt of peacemaking plus a likely collapse of the global financial system and world economy is more than enough to create devastation for the world for the next decade or more.
Let us sincerely hope that all these events in the Cycle of Evil will not develop into global havoc.But even if that were to be avoided, it is absolutely certain that global risk today is higher than at any time since the 1930s.
WEALTH PRESERVATION
Most of us have little influence over the geopolitical or global economic situation.
Nor do most people have the flexibility to move to a lower risk area in regards to a conventional or nuclear war.
But anyone who has savings however small or big can at least protect some of their liquid assets.
As we have pointed out in many articles, physical gold and some silver is the only money which has survived and maintained its purchasing power for thousands of years.
Thus gold and silver are the perfect insurance and wealth preservation asset to protect against the coming problems.
It is critical to hold gold and silver outside a fractured financial system in the safest jurisdictions preferably outside your country of residence. It is important to be able to flee to your wealth preservation asset if there are problems in your own country.
It must also be kept in the safest vaults with direct personal access. Nuclear bomb proof vaults are an additional important protection but hard to find. We offer this in Switzerland for bigger investors.
As I have stressed in recent articles, WILL THIS FALL BE THE FALL OF FALLS, gold just fulfilled the technical projection of a small dip and is now on its way to much, much higher levels.
With Central Banks likely to switch their reserve assets from US dollars to gold, we will see a major revaluation of gold to probably multiples of the current price. See my important article: A DISORDERLY RESET WITH GOLD REVALUED BY MULTIPLES
HUMAN SUFFERING – HELP FAMILY AND FRIENDS
Sadly the coming conflict will lead to major human suffering both economically and humanly.
So helping family and friends is very important.
Also, remember that some of the best things in life are virtually free. In addition to family and friends, life offers so many wonderful things like nature, music, books, sports etc.
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES:
Chris Powell/remarks New Orleans conference
a must read
(Chris Powell/GATA)
Gold market manipulation update: The battle may be going gold’s way
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2023-11-01 19:10Section: Daily Dispatches
Illustrations for this presentation are posted here:
Remarks by Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. New Orleans Investment Conference Hilton Riverside Hotel, New Orleans Wednesday, November 1, 2023
Twenty-two years ago the Swiss banker and economist Ferdinand Lips published what may have been the first great truth-telling book about the modern financial system’s relationship with gold. He titled it “Gold Wars – The Battle Against Sound Money as Seen from a Swiss Perspective”:
ILLUSTRATION 2
Fourteen years ago Jim Rickards, who will be speaking here Friday afternoon, perfectly summarized Lips’ premise as he slipped a profoundly subversive comment past the censors on CNBC. “When you own gold,” Rickards said, “you’re fighting every central bank in the world”:
Though you would hardly know it from following mainstream financial news organizations, that battle has continued furiously since we met here a year ago. But it seems that it’s starting to go in gold’s favor.
Central bank intervention against gold and intervention against gold by the agents of central banks, the big investment banks that trade heavily in the monetary metals — “bullion banks” — long has been documented and publicized by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee. Especially telling lately has been GATA’s deciphering of the monthly reports of the financial position of the Bank for International Settlements, the central bank of all the major central banks and their gold broker. The BIS provides crucial camouflage for central bank interventions that hold gold down.
As far as we can determine, only one person in the world outside central banking — GATA’s consultant Robert Lambourne — reviews the BIS monthly reports and does the calculations necessary to discover what is happening. The interventions, accomplished in large part through gold swaps and leases, are not stated plainly in the BIS monthly reports, though they easily could be. The interventions are stated plainly, if obscurely, only in the bank’s annual report. But recent BIS annual reports have confirmed the stunning accuracy of Lambourne’s monthly calculations.
Gold swaps conducted via the BIS involve exchanges of gold among central banks and bullion banks. These swaps move custody of gold around without necessarily moving any gold itself. In effect gold swaps, along with gold leases, often allow central banks and bullion banks to apply gold to markets where, in the view of the central bank members of the BIS, the gold price most urgently needs to be discouraged or controlled.
Over the years GATA has collected many admissions from central bankers that they act surreptitiously to control the gold price. These admissions are compiled at GATA’s internet site:
For example, at a BIS conference in June 2005 the director of the bank’s monetary and economic department, William R. White, was candid about it, apparently because he thought no one outside central banking would be paying attention. White said that a major purpose of cooperation among central banks is “the provision of international credits and joint efforts to influence asset prices (especially gold and foreign exchange) in circumstances where this might be thought useful”:
Two years later at a conference at BIS headquarters to recruit more central bank members, the BIS actually advertised, via a PowerPoint presentation, that its services include surreptitious interventions in the gold market:
So let’s look closely at the BIS gold swaps over the last three years as calculated by Bob Lambourne.
ILLUSTRATION 4
The chart shows the swaps starting at a high level, 519 tonnes, in October 2020, and then declining fairly gradually and then quickly all the way to zero in December 2022, whereupon they began rising again — to 129 tonnes as of this August, falling to 96 tonnes in September according to the report published this week.
The BIS operates in markets only for itself and its central bank members, so all these swaps on the books of the BIS involve central bank trading. What is the purpose of these swaps? For whom are they executed? The BIS has been asked by GATA and has refused to say:
This refusal shows that whatever the purpose of the swaps is, it includes deception.
Perhaps more distressing about the BIS’ refusal to explain what it is doing in the gold market every month and for whom is the refusal of mainstream financial news organizations and especially gold market analysts to report the BIS’ trading, ask about it, and report the refusal to answer, though this trading almost surely determines the price of gold more than things that are reported, like jewelry demand in India.
But we may fairly suspect that the reduction in BIS gold swaps over the last several years has been connected with the need of bullion banks to comply with the new gold banking regulations that the BIS has been pressing on the world, the so-called Basel III regulations. Under these regulations gold derivatives that are issued by a bank but not fully backed by physical gold are to be charged against the bank’s balance sheet. The new regulations powerfully discourage bullion banks from selling claims to gold that they don’t actually hold — that is, the new regulations discourage bullion banks from selling “paper gold,” gold credits, essentially imaginary gold that has greatly facilitated gold price suppression.
By pushing bullion banks out of the “paper gold” business, the BIS’ “Basel III” regulations may force central banks that still are intervening against gold to put more of their own physical gold reserves at risk for gold price suppression, something they might prefer not to do.
Returning to the BIS gold swap chart: Why did swaps start rising again in January, jumping from zero in December to 103 tonnes a month later?
We can guess that some central bank was getting more alarmed about rising gold prices, even as other central banks were announcing acquisition of more gold for their reserves.
*
Last October another central banker who seems to have thought that only other central bankers and bullion bankers were listening confirmed that central banks are deeply involved in the gold market for purposes quite separate from increasing their gold reserves.
ILLUSTRATION 5
This confirmation came from Peter Zollner, head of the BIS’ Banking Department, in a presentation he made to the Global Precious Metals Conference of the London Bullion Market Association held in Lisbon, Portugal:
Zollner said: “Gold should not be seen just as a dormant asset in a vault for the rainy days. Gold is an asset that offers opportunities in the financial markets. It can be used to create liquidity via gold/currency swaps or as collateral, often more cheaply than using other assets. Sometimes using options or placing deposits to enhance the return can be an appropriate strategy.”
That is, for central banks intervention in the gold market is indeed sometimes a matter of “strategy.”
*
Of course the last year has brought more documentation of subsidiary manipulation of the gold and silver markets by traders for bullion banks that act as gold and silver brokers for central banks.
ILLUSTRATION 6
In March two former Wall Street traders, one of them formerly employed by Deutsche Bank and Bank of America, the other formerly employed by Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, were sentenced in federal court in Chicago to a year and a day in prison for a multi-year fraud scheme to manipulate the price of gold and silver futures contracts. They did this with the rapid placing and withdrawal of orders that were not meant to be filled, the infamous practice called “spoofing”:
In August the former head of JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s monetary metals desk and his leading trader were also given prison terms in federal court for manipulating the monetary metals futures markets with “spoofing.”
Remarkably, one of the convicted Morgan traders, Michael Nowak, the head of the bank’s monetary metals desk, was simultaneously a member of the Board of Directors of the London Bullion Market Association. Nowak long was at the very center of the central bank and bullion bank business. Maybe that’s where he learned how easy it was to manipulate the gold and silver markets, especially when central banks consider such manipulation to be God’s work:
But over the last year some governments and central banks have been expressing resentment of the U.S. dollar’s domination of the world financial system, and they have been openly contemplating ways of getting around the dollar in international trade. Much of the world has taken note of the financial sanctions imposed by the United States on countries that don’t cooperate with U.S. foreign policy. The U.S. seizure of Russian assets was a loud wake-up call.
ILLUSTRATION 8
In July the Financial Times reported:
“A growing number of countries are bringing their physical gold reserves back home to avoid Russian-style sanctions on their foreign assets, while increasing their purchases of the precious metal as a hedge against high levels of inflation.”
The Financial Times continued: “Central banks globally made record purchases of gold in 2022 and into the first quarter of this year, as they hunted for safe havens from high inflation and volatile bond prices, according to a survey of sovereign investors by asset manager Invesco”:
Two weeks ago Reuters reported that many researchers advising the government of China have concluded that to avoid the U.S. sanctions that would follow an attack by China on Taiwan, China’s financial system must rely more on gold and start issuing gold-denominated bonds:
The New York-based research group The China Project reported in June that China’s currency reserves are far larger than officially reported – that China has the equivalent of trillions of dollars that don’t show up on the financial ledgers, instead being hidden in government-controlled banks:
That is a lot of wealth to protect against sanctions, and of course China is now the largest producer of gold and its experts in finance long have considered gold as the primary escape from domination by the dollar.
It would be foolish to think that China fully reports its gold reserves.
ILLUSTRATION 11
This year the BRICS group of nations, which China is joining, sparked much speculation that they might eventually create a gold-based currency for international trade. Nothing seems to have come from that idea yet, but it has emphasized what the Chinese researchers have concluded: that the only credible alternative to the dollar as a world reserve and trading currency is gold, the former world reserve currency:
But this year gold did return as a trading currency, notably in Ghana, which is now Africa’s foremost gold producer and in January began paying in gold for some of its oil imports:
While this growing worldwide interest in gold as a trading and reserve currency is intriguing, and while gold is almost certainly the only escape from the dollar, it should be remembered that gold’s great virtue as a form of money remains the restraint it imposes on government’s money creation. Eventually countries looking to escape the dominance of the dollar and subservience to U.S. foreign policy will have to consider whether they want to trade one master for another:
Do those countries have the civic virtue to accept restraint in their money supply now that people living under big government increasingly believe that everything desirable should be free? That will be the day.
*
ILLUSTRATION 13
I’d like to conclude by reflecting on GATA’s 25 years of documenting, exposing, and complaining about gold price suppression by Western central banks.
As shown by the Ferdinand Lips book I cited a few minutes ago, GATA’s perceptions at the outset were not unique. The gold war had been waged for years before GATA came upon it, but it was not widely recognized — certainly not recognized at all in financial journalism or in polite company generally — nor were many of its manifestations and actors yet identified.
We surely have not discovered and exposed all of them, but we have exposed far more than enough of them to establish that gold price suppression is no mere “conspiracy theory” but is longstanding government policy. The people who years ago scorned us as “conspiracy theorists” leave us alone now. The last thing they want to do is discuss the documentation, piece by piece — documentation that establishes conspiracy fact. They consider the documentation to be unhelpful to their business promoting the shares of monetary metals mining companies. Investors may be discouraged if they understand that governments are often very much opposed to any fair valuation of what monetary metals mining companies produce.
In contrast, GATA has long figured that our work reveals the enormous opportunity in monetary metals mining, opportunity inherent in the massive and unfulfillable naked short position that has been run in the metals by central banks and their bullion bank agents. We have figured that exposing the naked short position would hasten its destruction.
We figured that once monetary metals price suppression was better documented and exposed, mining companies and financial news organizations would raise hell about it. As someone who had been in the news business for 30 years before GATA was founded in 1998, I especially believed that exposing dishonesty and unfairness in government and markets was a basic objective of journalism.
Boy, were we wrong! How naive we were!
With a very few heroic exceptions, mining companies have been too scared of and dependent on their governments and bankers to criticize them.
With even fewer exceptions, financial news organizations and analysts have been just as determined not to make any trouble for their governments and the biggest banks, which are often their advertisers.
So now gold price suppression is pretty much an open secret. But while nearly everyone connected with the industry knows about it, no one can talk about it, not even to dispute it, since disputing it would just bring more attention to it.
Until mining companies, news organizations, and market analysts can deal with the issue honestly, retail investors can’t be expected to do much to bust the naked short position.
*
Ironically, the salvation for gold and free markets generally almost certainly rests with governments and central banks that have become aware of how far gold price suppression has gone and are discontinuing their cooperation with it or even working against it because they now consider it against their national interest. All major central banks are members of the Bank for International Settlements, and they all now surely know something about the gold price suppression that has been masterminded and executed there.
Indeed, the major central banks, even the U.S. Federal Reserve, may be working together through the BIS to ease a transition from the dollar back to gold. They may be planning to raise the gold price dramatically to reliquefy governments that have huge unpayable indebtedness but also substantial gold reserves.
Over the years GATA has managed to achieve serious consultations with five major central banks or governments. I am confident that almost 20 years ago GATA sparked much of the interest that has been taken in gold by Russia and China. In 2004 the deputy chairman of the Russia central bank cited GATA by name in a speech to the London Bullion Market Association meeting in Moscow. “Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee” were the only words he spoke in English:
Since then the government-controlled press in China has been full of material about Western gold price suppression policy and the opportunity for China to use gold to escape the dollar system:
Of course Americans, like people everywhere, also can use gold to avoid oppression by their own government. In our view gold is less valuable as a medium of exchange than as a protector of individual liberty.
That observation isn’t unique to GATA either. It is almost as old as gold itself.
But it will be ironic all the same if some central banks are used to bust the oppression committed by other central banks. If that happens, we amateurs will have done what we could do to help.
Thanks much for your kind attention.
end
4, OTHER IMPORTANT GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES//
end
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: ORANGE JUICE
END
END
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.3178
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.3258
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.67 PTS OR 0.75%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 128.81 PTS OR 0.75%
2. Nikkei closed UP 348.24 PTS OR 1.10 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 105.84 EURO RISES TO 1.0653 UP 66 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.911 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 150.23/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP// OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.6815***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 4.515*** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.724…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO 4.029
3j Gold at $1989.20 silver at: 23.06 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 37 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 93.11//
3m oil into the 81 dollar handle for WTI and 85 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 150.22// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.911% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9035 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF 0.9625 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.684 DOWN 11 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.866 DOWN 11 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.952 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.35…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 8 BASIS PTS AT 4.4160
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
US Futures, Global Markets Jump After Dovish Powell Hints Rate Hikes Ending
THURSDAY, NOV 02, 2023 – 08:04 AM
US equity futures, and global stocks and bonds extended gains Thursday as traders bet the Federal Reserve is ending its historic tightening campaign, and that easing may not be too far behind. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.7%. Both underlying indexes had jumped on Wednesday after the Fed held interest rates steady and the Treasury announced plans to slow the pace of increases in quarterly long-term securities sales. The dollar weakened and Treasuries steadied after sharp gains following Powell’s comments yesterday. In Asia, the yen extended its gains from Wednesday, while the South Korean won led emerging-market currencies higher. The 10-year TSY yield dipped two basis points after falling below 4.75% for the first time in two weeks. Elsewhere, the latest major company earnings also provided a dose of good news.Commodities are mixed with WTI adding 1.5% in the morning while base metals are for sale. Today, macro calendar is quieter: we have some second-tier labor data (Challenger Job Cuts, Nonfarm Productivity, ULC) and Factory Orders. We will receive AAPL’s earnings after the bell. All eyes on Friday’s NFP and ISM-Srvcs releases.
In premarket trading Starbucks rose after sales surpassed expectations. Novo Nordisk A/S rose after reporting that third-quarter sales surged amid the frenzy for its blockbuster obesity and diabetes drugs. Shell Plc gained after accelerating the pace of share buybacks as its third-quarter profit rose. Solar stocks fell after solar equipment-makers SolarEdge and Sunrun plunged after missing 3Q sales estimates. Apple headlines the roster of US earnings due later. Here are some other notable pre-market movers:
Airbnb shares drop as much as 2.2% after the online travel company forecast revenue for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. The short-term rental platform cited “greater volatility” in the economic environment that will in turn slow demand for travel.
Confluent slump more than 30% after the software company narrowed its total revenue guidance for the full year, missing the average analyst estimate. Analysts noted that the company’s cloud business was hit by two large customers paring back spending.
DoorDash shares jump 11% after the online food-delivery company third-quarter results beat expectations and its outlook was viewed as strong by analysts.
Elf Beauty shares surge 14% after the cosmetics brand beat adjusted EPS estimates in the second-quarter and boosted full-year guidance for the metric above consensus expectations.
Etsy shares fall 5.2% after the e-commerce company reported its third-quarter results and gave a forecast. The company said gross merchandise sales for the fourth quarter are “currently estimated to decline in the low-single-digit range on a year-over-year basis.”
Fastly shares jump 18% after the infrastructure software company narrowed its adjusted loss-per-share forecast for the year. Analysts noted solid execution amid a challenging environment.
PayPal shares rise as much as 7.8%, on track for their biggest gain in nearly a year, after the digital and mobile payments company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations across key metrics.
Qualcomm shares gain 5.7% after the chipmaker reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as strong. Analysts noted that its mobile inventory was largely cleared.
Roku shares jump 19% after the streaming-video platform company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations on key metrics and gave an outlook analysts see as positive.
While the Fed left the door open to another increase after pausing Wednesday, officials hinted that a run-up in long-term Treasury yields reduces the impetus to tighten policy further. The Bank of England algo kept interest rates unchanged at the highest level since 2008 amid evidence that the UK economy, labor market and inflation are weakening.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday noted that financial conditions have “tightened significantly in recent months driven by higher, longer—term bond yields, among other factors.” He repeatedly said the committee was moving “carefully,” a wording that often has signaled a low likelihood of any immediate change in policy, while adding that risks to the outlook have become more two-sided as the tightening campaign nears its end.
“The Fed did not throw in the towel yesterday, but the changes in the speech are in line with a more moderate growth situation,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro research at Lombard Odier Asset Management. “What transpires from the speech is essentially a first eyebrow raised at the real growth situation, which markets decided to take for a ‘bad news is good news’ message.”
US yields were already heading lower prior to the Fed decision after the government announced plans to borrow slightly less than expected over the next three months, reassuring investors worried about a deluge of debt issuance.
The dual statements from the Treasury and Fed helped reverse some of the steep declines in US government debt and the S&P 500 over the last three months. The US stock gauge has now climbed for three days in a row, and strategists including at Barclays Plc said the bar for a further rally was low on wagers of a peak in rates as well as supportive year-end seasonal trends.
Optimism that central banks have come to the end of their rate hiking campaign fueled gains in Europe, led by rates-sensitive real estate stocks. The Stoxx 600 is up 1.4%, rising for a fourth day, with real estate and technology shares leading gains. Here are some of the biggest European movers:
Novo Nordisk shares rise as much as 3.2% after the firm reported Wegovy sales for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
Shell shares rise as much as 2.5% in London after the oil major’s results met expectations, providing investors with some relief after recent disappointments at peers
BT shares gain as much as 7.6% after the telecom operator raised free cash flow guidance to the higher end of a previous range, noting a fall in capital expenditure and per-unit fiber build costs
Tenaris rises as much as 10%, the most since February, after the steel producer reported third-quarter Ebitda that beat estimates, with analysts also positive on the Italian pipe and tube manufacturer’s $1.2b buyback plan and increased dividend
Fortum rises as much as 7.8%, the most since December, to lead gains in the Stoxx 600 Utilities Index after reporting Ebit the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
Hugo Boss shares jump as much as 5.9%, lifting the broader luxury sector, after its third-quarter results beat expectations. By sticking to its prior guidance, the high-end fashion retailer sends a reassuring message on luxury demand, RBC analysts note
Adecco shares jump as much as 14%, the most intraday since March 2020, after the Swiss staffing company reported third-quarter profits that beat expectations
Geberit shares gain as much as 12%, the most since October 2008, after the Swiss building materials firm’s Ebitda growth beat estimates. Analysts note the otherwise challenging environment and positive margin development
ING shares fall as much as 4.8% after the lender’s miss in net interest income overshadowed a better-than-expected share buyback program of €2.5 billion
Swisscom shares fall as much as 4.7%, the most in three months, after the telecom operator’s 3Q results showed a deepening service-revenue decline in its home market
Haleon shares fall as much as 4.7%, the most since March, after the consumer-health company reported sales volume in the third quarter that lagged behind expectations
Earlier in the session, Asia stocks rallied on signs the Federal Reserve may be done with its tightening cycle, with heavyweight tech shares getting an added boost from Advanced Micro Devices’ strong sales forecast. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.7%, headed for its best day since July 13. TSMC, Samsung Electronics and Alibaba were among those that contributed most to the benchmark’s gain. All major markets were in the green, mirroring the advance in Wall Street after the Fed held off on raising interest rates for a second meeting and Chair Jerome Powell noted officials are “proceeding carefully.” Traders who were bracing for a hawkish hold cheered the remarks. Futures were pricing in a roughly one-in-four chance of another rate hike by January, compared to around 40% the day before.
Shares in mainland China barely rose to underperform the region, after another substantial PBoC liquidity drain with mixed signals on its economic recovery. The Hang Seng benchmark was boosted by a surge in tech and strength in property.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 briefly climbed above 32,000 with the biggest movers driven by earnings and automaker updates.
ASX 200 was higher with gains led by notable outperformance in tech and real estate amid a drop in yields.
Indian stocks rose in line with other Asian peers as the Federal Reserve’s signal that it may be done with rate hikes spurred a risk-on rally in global equities. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.8% to 64,080.90 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced by the same magnitude. The Nifty Realty Index closed 2.5% higher.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%, extending a decline against its Group-of-10 peers as US yields fell after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted the US central bank may be done with hiking rates after it stayed on hold Wednesday. The pound is up 0.3% versus the greenback, lagging behind most of its G-10 peers ahead of the BOE rate decision.
In rates, Treasuries were slightly higher, with yields down across the curve, adding to Wednesday’s session gains spurred by the Treasury’s refunding details and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. In London session, gilts have outperformed bunds as money markets pare BOE tightening premium and add to rate-cut wagers ahead of the BOE policy decision at 8am New York. US yields richer by up to 3bp across long-end of the curve, which outperforms, flattening 5s30s, 2s10s spreads by 1bp and 3bp on the day; 10-year yields around 4.705% and near bottom of days range into early US session.
In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 1.3% to trade near $81.50, after sliding around 5% over the previous three sessions. Spot gold gains 0.3%.
Bitcoin is in little changed on the session after once again eclipsing the $35k mark in Wednesday’s session; since then BTC has experienced relatively steady trade and holding around the USD 35.4k mark towards the mid-point of its USD 35.09-35.962 range as it failed to breach the USD 36k mark in APAC trade.
Looking to the day ahead now, one of the main highlights will be the Bank of England’s latest policy decision and the subsequent press conference where we’ll hear from Governor Bailey. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Lane and Schnabel. Data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims and September’s factory orders, whilst there’s also German unemployment for October. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Apple and Starbucks.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.6% to 4,280
MXAP up 1.4% to 154.38
MXAPJ up 1.6% to 479.79
Nikkei up 1.1% to 31,949.89
Topix up 0.5% to 2,322.39
Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 17,230.59
Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,009.41
Sensex up 0.7% to 64,026.18
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 6,899.73
Kospi up 1.8% to 2,343.12
STOXX Europe 600 up 1.2% to 441.60
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.73%
Euro up 0.3% to $1.0597
Brent Futures up 1.4% to $85.79/bbl
Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,986.37
US Dollar Index down 0.45% to 106.40
Top Overnight News
Japan’s Fumio Kishida is staking the future of his premiership on a $113bn stimulus plan centered on tax cuts and cash handouts, as he seeks to tackle the fallout from high inflation and record-low approval ratings. FT
South Korea’s CPI overshoots the Street consensus in Oct (with core coming in at +3.2% vs. the Street’s +3.1% forecast). RTRS
Preparations are in full swing for a summit between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden this month, but analysts say they do not expect any breakthroughs given the long-standing issues looming over the talks. They say the much-anticipated meeting could, however, bode well for US-China ties and send a positive signal to regional countries that the world’s two biggest economies are managing their differences and trying to ease tensions. SCMP
China’s biggest memory-chip maker has had to raise billions of dollars in fresh capital, after burning through $7bn in funding over the past year trying to adapt to tough US restrictions on its business. Yangtze Memory Technologies Corp, which last December was added to a trade blacklist and prohibited from procuring US equipment to manufacture chips, exceeded its target for a new round, according to four people familiar with the situation. FT
Hamas said 600 more foreigners, including 400 American citizens, are expected to leave Gaza today. Joe Biden said Israel and Hamas, designated a terrorist group by the US, should “pause” fighting to allow time to free more hostages. BBG
Toyota announces plans to increase compensation for nonunion US factory workers days after the Detroit 3 struck deals w/the UAW. RTRS
Speaker Johnson talks about a short-term spending bill that would fund the gov’t through Jan 15 with an eventual 1% cut to spending (Johnson expressed support for funding both Ukraine and Israel, but not in the same bill). Politico
Jamie Dimon told Yahoo that another 75 bps of hikes are still possible. Dimon also warned that Texas risks hurting its business-friendly reputation with laws designed to punish Wall Street banks for limiting work with the gun and fossil fuel industries. BBG
The iPhone 15 is in the spotlight when Apple reports postmarket. Results may show it’s off to a solid start, though investors will focus on the China outlook given weak early sales. BB
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks mostly followed suit to the gains on Wall St where the major indices were lifted by soft data releases and after Fed Chair Powell’s post-FOMC press conference spurred a dovish reaction as he poured cold water over the September dot plots which had pointed to one more hike by year-end. ASX 200 was higher with gains led by notable outperformance in tech and real estate amid a drop in yields. Nikkei 225 briefly climbed above 32,000 with the biggest movers driven by earnings and automaker updates. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark boosted by a surge in tech and strength in property, while the mainland lagged after another substantial PBoC liquidity drain.
Top Asian News
BoJ Governor Ueda will stick to a pattern established, to move gradually toward an exit while maintaining the dovish rhetoric of his predecessor, via Reuters citing sources familiar with the BoJ’s thinking. Given the uncertainty on the economic outlook, the BoJ will probably want to wait until at least Spring 2024 to normalise policy. If so, it makes sense to keep guidance dovish. Gradualism, if possible, is the preference. Next focus is ending NIRP and pushing short-term rates to 0 from the current -0.1%; the timing for a move is likely around Spring, when there will be clarity on annual wage negotiations. Do not want to get markets too excited about the likelihood of an early lift-off, given the numerous hurdles to clear. The most likely scenario of an exit, given the cost of a spike in market rates is seen as too high, would be to end YCC and negative rates but to give a loose pledge to intervene if bond yields rise abruptly.
Japan’s PM Kishida says he will prod firms to attain wage hikes next year that surpass those this year; a robust economy is the foundation of all key policies.
China’s regulators reportedly probe liquidity stress that sent rates to 50%, via Reuters citing source; asking institutions why they borrowed at very elevated rates.
European bourses are in the green, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.6%, in a continuation of the post-Powell/Fed trade. Sectors are all in the green with Real Estate, Tech & Construction benefitting from yields while Travel & Leisure lifts after strong Lufthansa comments. Elsewhere, Delivery names benefit from the main takeaway of DoorDash’s numbers. Stateside, futures reside in the green but with action slightly more contained than Europe as the region has already had a chance to react to the Fed, ES +0.4%; NQ +0.7% continues its outperformance amid ongoing yield action ahead of Apple earnings after-hours.
Top European News
European bourses are in the green, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.6%, in a continuation of the post-Powell/Fed trade.
Sectors are all in the green with Real Estate, Tech & Construction benefitting from yields while Travel & Leisure lifts after strong Lufthansa comments. Elsewhere, Delivery names benefit from the main takeaway of DoorDash’s numbers.
Stateside, futures reside in the green but with action slightly more contained than Europe as the region has already had a chance to react to the Fed, ES +0.4%; NQ +0.7% continues its outperformance amid ongoing yield action ahead of Apple earnings after-hours.
FX
DXY continues to drift amidst peak Fed rate perceptions with the index towards the base of a 106.490-150 range.
Antipodes extract most from their US rival’s demise and buoyant risk appetite as Kiwi probes 0.5900 and Aussie approaches 0.6450.
Euro, Franc and Yen all up at Dollar’s expense, with EUR/USD back on a 1.0600 handle, USD/CHF straddling 0.9050 and USD/JPY closer to 150.00 than 151.00.
Pound mixed awaiting BoE as Cable eyes 1.2200 and EUR/GBP rebounds through 0.8700.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1797 vs exp. 7.3055 (prev. 7.1778)
Norwegian Key Policy Rate N/A 4.25% vs. Exp. 4.25% (Prev. 4.25%); “the policy rate will likely be raised in December”. “If the Committee becomes more assured that underlying inflation is on the decline, the policy rate may be kept on hold”. Click here for more detail, reaction & analysis.
Brazil Central Bank cut the Selic rate by 50bps to 12.25%, as expected, while committee members unanimously anticipate similar reductions in the next meetings. BCB added that this pace is appropriate to keep the necessary contractionary monetary policy for the disinflationary process and noted the external environment is adverse due to higher long-term interest rates in the US.
Fixed Income
Bonds continue to bull-flatten as markets pre-empt policy pivots from tightening to easing.
Bunds, Gilts and T-notes are all closer to peaks than troughs within 130.06-129.48, 94.35-93.44 and 107-13+/02+ respective ranges.
OATs and Bonos firmly underpinned following well-received French and Spanish auctions.
Commodities
Crude benchmarks are in the green with XAU and base metals also firmer in a continuation of post-Fed/Powell price action.
WTI Dec’23 and Brent Jan’24 are posting gains of circa. USD 1.50/bbl on the session and reside around the USD 82.00/bbl and USD 86.00/bbl remarks. However, this remains well within Wednesday’s bounds and by extension some way shy of the USD 83.40/bbl and USD 87.00/bbl peaks for that session.
Spot gold is benefitting from the aforementioned post-Powell trade as the USD and yields continue to slip. However, upside for the yellow metal is capped as the overall risk tone remains very constructive ahead of additional Tier 1.
Base metals generally benefit from the risk tone with specifics light once again though Dalian Iron Ore continues to outpace in a move attributed to demand, low inventories and improved Chinese sentiment around stimulus.
Geopolitics: Israel-Hamas
Lebanon’s Hezbollah said it destroyed an Israeli drone with a surface-to-air missile in the airspace of two border villages, according to Reuters.
Iran’s Foreign Minister warned of ‘harsh consequences’ if an immediate ceasefire in Gaza doesn’t take place and “rapid attacks by US and the Zionist Regime continue”, according to Reuters.
Geopolitics: Other
US military said a US destroyer and Canadian frigate transited through the Taiwan Strait yesterday, while the Chinese military said it followed the bilateral naval transit of the US and Canada in the Taiwan Strait, according to Reuters.
China’s Foreign Ministry says next week China and the US will hold director-general level consultations on arms control and non-proliferation, a delegation to be led by a senior official from the Foreign Ministry. In response to and confirmation of an earlier WSJ article
US Event Calendar
08:30: Oct. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210,000, prior 210,000
08:30: Oct. Continuing Claims, est. 1.8m, prior 1.79m
08:30: 3Q Unit Labor Costs, est. 0.3%, prior 2.2%
08:30: 3Q Nonfarm Productivity, est. 4.3%, prior 3.5%
10:00: Sept. Factory Orders, est. 2.3%, prior 1.2%
10:00: Sept. Factory Orders Ex Trans, est. 0.8%, prior 1.4%
10:00: Sept. Durable Goods Orders, est. 4.7%, prior 4.7%
10:00: Sept. Durables-Less Transportation, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
10:00: Sept. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0%
10:00: Sept. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.6%, prior 0.6%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I woke up this morning to my garden looking like a battleground as I made my regular pre-EMR strong coffee. Debris lays all around from storm Ciaran. Thankfully the trampoline looks like it held the line. As southern England mops up from the storm, the FOMC helped clear up a lot of the debris from recent weakness in both bonds and equities yesterday.
Indeed it was the best day for US Treasuries since March (10yr yield down -19.7bps) as a dovish leaning FOMC outcome reinforced an already strong rally driven by the Treasury’s refunding announcement and weaker US data. A softening of the Fed’s tightening bias and the bond rally supported equities, with the S&P 500 (+1.05% yesterday) seeing its strongest three-day rally since late March. I wonder whether the seasonals are also kicking in. As we showed in our CoTD last Friday (link here), that day (October 27th) is on average the low point for the S&P between July and October. After that markets on average rally. The next big events are the BoE today and Apple earnings after the closing bell tonight before payrolls tomorrow .
Starting with the Fed, as widely expected the FOMC held rates steady and the prepared statement largely saw a holding pattern, with one notable change being a new mention of tighter financial conditions. This dovish tilt was again visible in Powell’s prepared remarks, with a more direct comment that “the stance of policy is restrictive”. In the Q&A, Powell maintained a tightening bias, repeating the message that strong growth could warrant “further tightening’ and saying that the FOMC were ”not confident yet” that they have achieved a “sufficiently restrictive stance”. So keeping the possibility of a hike in December on the table, while also dismissing the idea that it would be “difficult to raise again after stopping for a meeting or two”.
However, Powell’s overall tone made this tightening bias sound rather soft, with several less hawkish elements. T here was repeated focus on the tightening in financial conditions, although this “would need to be persistent” for it to matter for policy. And while Powell said that “likely we will need to see some slower growth and softening in the labour market conditions”, he highlighted how positive supply effects (labour participation, immigration, supply chains) have helped bring inflation down so far. Powell echoed some of his recent comments with a dovish-leaning take on the labour market, noting the slowing of wage growth and saying that the recent ECI release was very close to Fed expectations. Finally, Powell acknowledged that “the risk of doing too much versus the risk of doing too little are getting closer to balance“. Away from rates policy, a notable comment was that the FOMC “is not considering” changing the pace of QT and that “it’s hard to make a case that reserves are even close to scarce at this point” .
Our US economists continue to expect that the Fed is done raising rates, but with this requiring evidence of a moderation in growth and labour market data as well as financial conditions remaining tight or tightening further. See their full reaction note here. Indeed, with Powell seeing persistence of tighter financial conditions as “critical”, we can’t help but wonder whether yesterday’s dovish market reaction could incentivise some hawkish pushback, especially if it continued.
Rates markets took firm hold of the Fed’s dovish hints, with futures now pricing a 19% chance of hike at the December meeting (down from 27% the previous day), and Dec-24 pricing falling by a sizeable -17.9bps to 4.49%. This repricing saw 2yr Treasury yields fall by -14.3bps to 4.95%, with just over half of the decline coming post the FOMC decision. And 1 0yr yields saw their sharpest rally since the March banking stress, down -19.7bps to 4.73% (though they were already down by -13bps prior to the Fed). The entirety of the move came from real yields, with the 10yr down -20.0bps. Overnight, 10yr yields (-1.68bps) are dipping further, with the 2s10s curve flattening (-2.92bps) and standing at -24.1bps as we go to print, thus doubling the level of inversion in a couple of days.
Equities saw some volatility during Powell’s comments, but the risk-on takeaway dominated with the S&P 500 closing up +1.05%, having traded c.+0.4% higher prior to the FOMC decision. T his brings the gains so far this week to +2.93%, which as mentioned at the start is its strongest rally since late March. Tech stocks led the advance with the NASDAQ up +1.64% and the Magnificent Seven mega cap index up +2.68% .
Ahead of the Fed, the main story driving markets was the Treasury refunding announcement, which triggered a major rally for Treasuries. That was because they only announced sales of $112bn of longer-term securities (vs. $114bn expected), and the increase in the issuance of 10yr and 30yr Treasuries was smaller than the increases in August. In the statement from the Treasury, they said they anticipated that “one additional quarter of increases to coupon auction sizes will likely be needed beyond the increases announced today .” With regard to buybacks, they said that “ Treasury continues to make significant progress on its plans to implement a regular buyback program in 2024 .” And looking forward, it said there’d be an update on timing in the next quarterly refunding announcement. See Steven Zeng’s review of the event here. Although it ended up in line with his lower than consensus expectations, he sees it as a major positive development for the Treasury market.
The bond rally after the announcement was cemented by another round of weak data releases. In particular, the latest US ISM manufacturing release fell to 46.7 in October (vs. 49.0 expected), which ended a run of three consecutive gains, whilst the new orders subcomponent also fell to a 5-month low of 45.5 (vs. 49.8 expected). That mood wasn’t helped by another weak ADP report, which signalled that private payrolls were only up +113k in October (vs. +150k expected), and the 3-month rolling average (+127k) fell to its lowest since March 2021. Moreover, we had the MBA’s latest weekly index of mortgage applications, which fell to another post-1995 low over the week ending October 27 .
The one release which didn’t fit into this trend was the latest JOLTS report for September, which showed a tighter labour market than expected. For instance, job openings were up to a 4-month high of 9.553m (vs. 9.4m expected), which meant that the ratio of job openings per unemployed individuals was still above its pre-pandemic levels at 1.50. In the meantime, the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their jobs held steady at 2.3%, in line with pre-pandemic levels. Overall, while the US labour market is no longer extraordinarily tight, the latest data suggest its normalisation could be slowing.
Looking forward, central banks will remain in the spotlight today, as the Bank of England announce their latest decision on rates. Like the Fed, they’re widely expected to keep rates on hold, having already paused their hikes at the last meeting in September. So the main focus will instead be on how the vote breaks down and the BoE’s new forecasts. In his preview (link here), our economist expects a 6-3 vote count to keep rates on hold, with the 3 voting in favour of another 25bp hike. With regards to the forward guidance, he expects no changes, and sees the MPC reiterating its view that policy will remain sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long to get CPI sustainable back to 2%.
Before all that, European markets put in another solid performance, and the STOXX 600 (+0.67%) posted a 3rd consecutive advance. Sovereign bonds also did well, with yields on 10yr bunds (-4.3bps), OATs (-4.6bps) and BTPs (-5.8bps) all falling back, although UK gilts (-1.4bps) were a slight underperformer ahead of the BoE decision today.
Asian equity markets are joining in the global rally with the KOSPI (+1.77%) outperforming followed by the Hang Seng (+1.21%), the Nikkei (+1.01%), the Shanghai Composite (+0.11%) and the CSI (+0.10%). S&P 500 (+0.26%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.43%) futures are ticking higher.
Early morning data showed that South Korea’s inflation accelerated to a seven-month high of +3.8% y/y in October (v/s +3.6% expected and 3.7% last month), due to higher prices of energy and farm goods. This will make it more likely that the Bank of Korea (BOK) keeps its restrictive stance in place for longer. Elsewhere, Australia’s trade surplus narrowed more than expected to A$6.78 billion from A$10.16 billion in September with exports falling -1.4% m/m, reversing the prior month’s revised advance of +4.6% while imports strongly rebounded +7.5% m/m after a -0.8% drop in the prior month.
Moving to Japan, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced a stimulus package worth more than $100 billion (higher than consensus expectations) as the incumbent PM is facing higher inflation while at the same time grappling with his poll ratings being at a record low since taking office in 2021. The package’s highlight is income and residential tax rebates to low-income households. Following the BOJ’s yesterday announcement of an emergency bond-purchase operation, plus the global rally, y ields on 10yr JGBs have come down to 0.92% after touching a high of 0.97% yesterday a level last seen in May 2013 .
To the day ahead now, and one of the main highlights will be the Bank of England’s latest policy decision and the subsequent press conference where we’ll hear from Governor Bailey. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Lane and Schnabel. Data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims and September’s factory orders, whilst there’s also German unemployment for October. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Apple and Starbucks.
END
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities & Antipodeans benefit from positive risk sentiment & DXY slips; BoE due – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, NOV 02, 2023 – 06:37 AM
European bourses & US futures are benefitting from a continuation of the post-Fed/Powell price action
DXY pressured to a 106.15 trough with fixed income bid and long-end yields under pressure
USD/JPY pressured on the latest BoJ sources while the NOK is ultimately softer after the Norges Bank
Commodities lifted given the above with specifics somewhat light thus far
Iran warned of “harsh consequences” if a ceasefire in Gaza does not occur
Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Factory Orders, BoE Policy Announcement, Speeches from BoE’s Bailey, ECB’s Lane & Schnabel. Earnings from Apple.
Clock Change: UK Clocks switched to GMT from BST on 29th October, as such the London-New York time gap is four hours which will last for one week, until US clocks change on November 5th.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are in the green, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.6%, in a continuation of the post-Powell/Fed trade.
Sectors are all in the green with Real Estate, Tech & Construction benefitting from yields while Travel & Leisure lifts after strong Lufthansa comments. Elsewhere, Delivery names benefit from the main takeaway of DoorDash’s numbers.
Stateside, futures reside in the green but with action slightly more contained than Europe as the region has already had a chance to react to the Fed, ES +0.4%; NQ +0.7% continues its outperformance amid ongoing yield action ahead of Apple earnings after-hours.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
DXY continues to drift amidst peak Fed rate perceptions with the index towards the base of a 106.490-150 range.
Antipodes extract most from their US rival’s demise and buoyant risk appetite as Kiwi probes 0.5900 and Aussie approaches 0.6450.
Euro, Franc and Yen all up at Dollar’s expense, with EUR/USD back on a 1.0600 handle, USD/CHF straddling 0.9050 and USD/JPY closer to 150.00 than 151.00.
Pound mixed awaiting BoE as Cable eyes 1.2200 and EUR/GBP rebounds through 0.8700.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1797 vs exp. 7.3055 (prev. 7.1778)
Norwegian Key Policy Rate N/A 4.25% vs. Exp. 4.25% (Prev. 4.25%); “the policy rate will likely be raised in December”. “If the Committee becomes more assured that underlying inflation is on the decline, the policy rate may be kept on hold”. Click here for more detail, reaction & analysis.
Brazil Central Bank cut the Selic rate by 50bps to 12.25%, as expected, while committee members unanimously anticipate similar reductions in the next meetings. BCB added that this pace is appropriate to keep the necessary contractionary monetary policy for the disinflationary process and noted the external environment is adverse due to higher long-term interest rates in the US.
Crude benchmarks are in the green with XAU and base metals also firmer in a continuation of post-Fed/Powell price action.
WTI Dec’23 and Brent Jan’24 are posting gains of circa. USD 1.50/bbl on the session and reside around the USD 82.00/bbl and USD 86.00/bbl remarks. However, this remains well within Wednesday’s bounds and by extension some way shy of the USD 83.40/bbl and USD 87.00/bbl peaks for that session.
Spot gold is benefitting from the aforementioned post-Powell trade as the USD and yields continue to slip. However, upside for the yellow metal is capped as the overall risk tone remains very constructive ahead of additional Tier 1.
Base metals generally benefit from the risk tone with specifics light once again though Dalian Iron Ore continues to outpace in a move attributed to demand, low inventories and improved Chinese sentiment around stimulus.
UK housebuilding in Q3 was the weakest since the start of the pandemic, according to surveyors cited by FT.
ECB’s Knot says a restrictive policy will likely be needed for some time; the current policy is “good altitude cruising”.
EUROPEAN DATA
German Unemployment Change SA (Oct) 30.0k vs. Exp. 15.0k (Prev. 10.0k); Rate SA (Oct) 5.8% vs. Exp. 5.8% (Prev. 5.7%)
German Unemployment Total NSA (Oct) 2.607M vs. Exp. 2.59M (Prev. 2.627M)
EU HCOB Manufacturing Final PMI (Oct) 43.1 vs. Exp. 43 (Prev. 43); German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 40.8 vs. Exp. 40.7 (Prev. 40.7)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US Senate passed three appropriation bills laying out funding plans for agriculture, military and veterans affairs and transportation for the fiscal year ending 30th September 2024.
GEOPOLITICS
ISRAEL-HAMAS
Lebanon’s Hezbollah said it destroyed an Israeli drone with a surface-to-air missile in the airspace of two border villages, according to Reuters.
Iran’s Foreign Minister warned of ‘harsh consequences’ if an immediate ceasefire in Gaza doesn’t take place and “rapid attacks by US and the Zionist Regime continue”, according to Reuters.
OTHER
US military said a US destroyer and Canadian frigate transited through the Taiwan Strait yesterday, while the Chinese military said it followed the bilateral naval transit of the US and Canada in the Taiwan Strait, according to Reuters.
China’s Foreign Ministry says next week China and the US will hold director-general level consultations on arms control and non-proliferation, a delegation to be led by a senior official from the Foreign Ministry. In response to and confirmation of an earlier WSJ article
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is in little changed on the session after once again eclipsing the USD 35k mark in Wednesday’s session; since, BTC has experienced relatively steady trade and holding around the USD 35.4k mark towards the mid-point of its USD 35.09-35.962 parameters as it failed to breach the USD 36k mark in APAC trade.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks mostly followed suit to the gains on Wall St where the major indices were lifted by soft data releases and after Fed Chair Powell’s post-FOMC press conference spurred a dovish reaction as he poured cold water over the September dot plots which had pointed to one more hike by year-end.
ASX 200 was higher with gains led by notable outperformance in tech and real estate amid a drop in yields.
Nikkei 225 briefly climbed above 32,000 with the biggest movers driven by earnings and automaker updates.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark boosted by a surge in tech and strength in property, while the mainland lagged after another substantial PBoC liquidity drain.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
BoJ Governor Ueda will stick to a pattern established, to move gradually toward an exit while maintaining the dovish rhetoric of his predecessor, via Reuters citing sources familiar with the BoJ’s thinking. Given the uncertainty on the economic outlook, the BoJ will probably want to wait until at least Spring 2024 to normalise policy. If so, it makes sense to keep guidance dovish. Gradualism, if possible, is the preference. Next focus is ending NIRP and pushing short-term rates to 0 from the current -0.1%; the timing for a move is likely around Spring, when there will be clarity on annual wage negotiations. Do not want to get markets too excited about the likelihood of an early lift-off, given the numerous hurdles to clear. The most likely scenario of an exit, given the cost of a spike in market rates is seen as too high, would be to end YCC and negative rates but to give a loose pledge to intervene if bond yields rise abruptly.
Japan’s PM Kishida says he will prod firms to attain wage hikes next year that surpass those this year; a robust economy is the foundation of all key policies.
China’s regulators reportedly probe liquidity stress that sent rates to 50%, via Reuters citing source; asking institutions why they borrowed at very elevated rates.
DATA RECAP
South Korean CPI MM (Oct) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.6%); YY (Oct) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.7%)
Australian Trade Balance (AUD)(Sep) 6.8B vs. Exp. 9.4B (Prev. 9.64B)
Australian Exports MM (Sep) -1.4% (Prev. 4.0%); Imports MM (Sep) 7.5% (Prev. 0.0%)
2 c. ASIAN AFFAIRS
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.67 PTS OR 0.75% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 128.81 PTS OR 0.75% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 348.24 PTS OR 1.10% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.00 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.3178 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.3258 /Oil DOWN TO 81/16 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 85.17/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
//NORTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/
Kevin W to us:
Japan approves $110bn stimulus package to fight inflation – Nikkei Asia
“You can’t make this up. They the bankers are all either crazy or stupid”
Bank of England Keeps Rates On Hold For Second Successive Meeting As Expected
THURSDAY, NOV 02, 2023 – 08:21 AM
Concluding the barrage of this week’s central bank announcements, moments ago the Bank of England, in a 6-3 vote split (with the minority of Greene, Haskel and Mann voting to raise by 25bps), kept interest rates on hold at 5.25% as expected for the second successive meeting, following the footsteps of other central banks around the world.
The majority agreed that the decision was “finely balanced” between no change and hike, while BoE gov Bailey said the MPC would be watching “closely” to see if further rate rises were needed, adding “it’s much too early to be thinking about rate cuts.”
The decision follows the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the European Central Bank last week, which also both kept rates unchanged (the BOJ continues doing its “special thing” in its own central bank corner).
The BOE said that “higher interest rates are helping to bring inflation down. This means the speed at which prices rise is slowing. We expect inflation to fall further this year.”
Policy likely needs to be restrictive for an extended period.
Maintains language that MPC will ensure bank rate is sufficiently restrictive, for sufficiently long.
Considers a wide range of labour data given ONS labour force survey issues.
Raises medium-term equilibrium unemployment rate estimate to around 4.5% (prev. 4.25%)
Risks to inflation projections still skewed to the upside.
Little news on inflation persistence since September.
Employment growth likely softer in H2 23 than previously forecast
Pay growth is high but strong private sector regular earnings are not apparent in other series.
Only about half of the impact of higher rates has been felt so far.
Investors show rising conviction on higher-for-longer UK policy path.
Governor Bailey says BoE is watching closely to see if further rate hikes are needed and it is much too early to think about rate cuts.
New forecasts from the Bank show it is treading a delicate line as it seeks to beat inflation while not pushing a weakening UK economy into an outright recession in 2024, which is expected to be an election year. UK interest rates are at their highest levels since the financial crisis, as the bank weighs evidence of weak growth against consumer price inflation of 6.7%.
Looking ahead, the MPR cut its inflation forecast for 2023 while hiking 2024 and 2025; it also trimmed growth forecasts in the outer years (from the latest forecast)
Inflation:
2023 4.75% (prev. 5.00%)
2024 3.25% (prev. 2.5%)
2025 2% (prev. 1.50%)
Growth:
2023 0.50% (prev. 0.50%)
2024 0% (prev. 0.50%)
2025 0.25% (prev. 0.25%)
In kneejerk response, sterling jumped from 1.2194 to 1.2216 while gilt futures were chopping but ultimately moved a little lower, from 94.48 to 94.32.
As Newsquawk notes, markets saw a modest hawkish reaction likely as a by-product of some expecting a more dovish vote split or even a vote for a cut by Dhingra. Furthermore, the MPC has kept the option for further hikes on the table and says it is too early to talk of cuts. Also, inflation is not seen falling below 2% until Q4 2025 vs. prev. view of 02’25.
END
UK
British BLM activist jailed for sending 36,000 pounds in donations intended for youth charity
(zerohedge)
British BLM Activist Jailed For Blowing €36,000 In Donations Intended For Youth Charity On Uber Eats & Clothes
A prominent Black Lives Matter activist in the United Kingdom who used over £32,000 (€36,000) in donations intended for a youth charity to fund her lavish lifestyle has been jailed for two and a half years.
Xahra Saleem, 23, set up a GoFundMe page encouraging donations from the public ahead of a Black Lives Matter march in the southwest English city of Bristol in June 2020 which culminated in the toppling of a statue commemorating Edward Colston, a Bristol-based philanthropist who profited in his later years from the slave trade.
The page, which amassed donations totaling £32,344, stated that funds would be used for personal protective equipment (PPE) ahead of the march at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, with leftover monies being pledged to Changing Your Mindset, a charity for disadvantaged youths based in the Bristol district of St. Paul’s which has a large African-Caribbean population.
At a sentencing hearing on Tuesday, Bristol Crown Court heard how Saleem pocketed the cash and used it to fund an extravagant lifestyle while repeatedly ignoring requests from the charity for her to transfer the funds.
Prosecuting counsel told the court how she made a total of 2,512 payments over a 15-month period, buying herself an iPhone, iMac, clothes, beauty treatments, and spending £5,080 on Uber.
The court heard how Saleem began to panic when the charity came looking for the funds. She reportedly sent a message to a friend on WhatsApp which read:
“I’ve done something horrendous… let’s just say my brain spent it. I couldn’t tell you on what, where, or why. I don’t know what I spent it on.”
Saleem had been made a director of Changing Your Mindset and its executives had begun to organize a trip to the Gambia, West Africa, for young people, relying on the funds they expected to receive.
Despite repeated attempts to take receipt of the money, it was not forthcoming, prompting the charity to issue Saleem with an ultimatum in June 2021.
In response, Saleem sent an e-mail explaining she had spent the cash.
“I am so sorry, I am still trying to understand my actions as well,” the e-mail read.
BP Exec Describes US Offshore Wind Industry As “Fundamentally Broken”
THURSDAY, NOV 02, 2023 – 06:30 AM
It’s not just Orsted that just realized the Green revolution is really deep red when it comes to shareholder value.
Speaking at the FT Energy Transition summit on Wednesday, a clean energy executive at supermajor BP said that the U.S. offshore wind industry is “fundamentally broken” and needs a reset. But the regulatory and permitting environment for the industry can be fixed, Anja-Isabel Dotzenrath, head of Gas and Low Carbon Energy at BP, said on the conference, as carried by Reuters.
Currently, the U.S. regulatory environment is challenging for developers due to a lack of mechanisms to adjust for inflation, permitting issues, and a lag between the signing of the power purchase agreement and the construction of the projects, according to BP’s green energy boss.
BP and Equinor’s filing to renegotiate the power purchase agreements associated with the Empire Wind 1 and 2 and Beacon Wind 1 wind farms off the coast of New York was rejected last month.
“Equinor and BP are assessing the impact of the decision on these projects and future development plans,” BP said.
Norway’s Equinor, which is BP’s partner in the ventures, recognized a $300 million impairment to its offshore wind projects on the US North East Coast following the rejection of petitions related to offtake agreements.
“Offshore wind projects on the US Northeast Coast are negatively impacted by cost inflation and supply chain constraints. New York Public Service Commission rejected price increase petitions from Equinor and other companies and Equinor is assessing the implications for its projects,” Equinor said in its Q3 results release last week.
end
UK
People on the street hits record highs. Migrants become a majority living on those streets
(Brooke/Remix)
Rough-Sleeping In London Hits Record-High As Migrants Become Majority Living On The Streets
Homelessness charities said the government’s attempts to clear the asylum backlog have resulted in an influx of foreign nationals sleeping on the streets…
The number of people sleeping rough in London has hit a record high, with homelessness charities warning that the ongoing asylum crisis in Britain has led to an overflow of migrants living on the streets.
New figures from the Combined Homelessness and Information Network (CHAIN) revealed that a record 4,068 people were spotted sleeping rough in the U.K. capital between July and September this year — a 12 percent rise compared with the same period in 2022 and a 24 percent increase over the figure recorded for April to June earlier this year.
Of that figure, 2,086 people spotted (51 percent) told outreach workers they were new to sleeping rough — a 13 percent increase over the same period last year.
The multi-agency database differentiates between the terms rough sleeping and homelessness and includes in its report only those identified as sleeping on the streets. Those it attributes to “hidden homeless groups,” such as squatters and sofa surfers aren’t included in the data.
Homelessness charity Shelter estimated there were 271,000 people with no fixed abode in England at the start of 2023.
There has been a notable rise in foreign nationals sleeping rough, and the number of non-U.K. nationals living on London’s streets now reportedly exceeds those originating from Britain at 52 percent.
This influx of homeless foreign nationals has been blamed on the U.K. government, which has been accused of amending asylum laws to push people out of taxpayer-funded accommodation more quickly and reduce the substantial asylum backlog in the country.
Taxpayers have been paying more than £6 million per day to house those awaiting asylum decisions, many of whom are living in hotels across the country. A change in the law back in August meant that those granted asylum were only required to receive seven days’ notice to find alternative accommodation following the completion of the process, as opposed to 28 days.
Charities claim this has led to a large number of evictions, with classified refugees being forced to sleep rough while they find a new place to live.
“Winter is coming. We need to take immediate action to protect people facing sleeping on the streets and long-term action to reverse this worrying trend in rising rough sleeping,” said Nick Redmore, director of The Salvation Army’s Homelessness Services in response to the new data.
IDF battalion commander, a DRUZE, was killed as HAMAS steps up ambush actions in GAZA
(zerohedge)
IDF Battalion Commander Killed As Hamas Steps Up Ambush Actions In Gaza
THURSDAY, NOV 02, 2023 – 09:55 AM
“This is a difficult campaign, it requires combat in Gaza,” Tzachi Hanegbi, Israel’s national security adviser, said in a press briefing earlier this week. “There is no combat without a painful price.”
Since beginning its ground operation in Gaza, which has witnessed heavy urban fighting as well as instances of Hamas teams emerging from tunnels to ambush Israeli tanks and patrols, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have lost18 soldiers, and 333 since the beginning of the war’s start with the Oct.7th Massacre. Stillframe of video featuring infantry units advancing in Gaza.
Tanks and infantry units have continued pressing toward Gaza City, and airstrikes have once again reportedly intensified, with Israeli media widely reporting major sustained firefights. Despite Israel’s clear military superiority in terms of heavy armor, air power, advanced weaponry, and numbers – Hamas has honed guerilla tactics and is making use of its vast network of underground tunnels to stage deadly ambushes.
The Israeli army radio said that “prolonged” and intense fighting took place overnight after Israeli infantry troops were ambushed by Palestinian fighters. The report said 20 Hamas fighters died while the army said it killed “dozens of operatives” without providing further details.
Following this, on Thursday afternoon (local time) Israel has confirmed the first death of a senior officer of the offensive: a battalion commander.
The Times of Israel cites Israeli military sources to identify that “Lt. Col. Salman Habaka, 33, the commander of the 188th Armored Brigade’s 53rd Battalion, from Yanuh-Jat, was killed battling Hamas terrorists in the northern part of Gaza.”
YNet News has described that days before the start of the ground offensive, Lt. Col. Habaka was featured in footage giving motivational words to his battalion as it prepared to enter battle. “I want to tell all of you that the 53rd Battalion and its tanks, in all their glory and strength, is ready for any challenge,” he said. “We’re making preparations to strike the enemy relentlessly.”
Habaka had actually been on the scene of the Hamas attacks of Oct.7 in southern Israel, being among the first military officers to respond, as Israeli media describes:
On the day of Hamas’ surprise attack, Lt. Col. Habaka rushed from his home in Yanuh-Jat in northern Israel to join the fighting. “I drove from the Galilee to a base near Tze’elim in order to get the tank and reach the community as quickly as possible to save every soul I could,” he recounted. He arrived in Kibbutz Be’eri with two tanks and joined the soldiers fighting there.
“I arrived in Be’eri, saw Col. Barak Hiram, and the first thing he ordered me to do was to fire a tank round into the house,” he recounted. “The first question you ask yourself is whether there are civilian hostages in the house. We conducted all the preliminary actions before deciding to fire into the house, but as soon as we fired into the house, we were able to move from house to house and the hostages. The fighting continued until evening, within the kibbutz’s streets.”
Also for the first time, IDF helicopters have been filmed in action firing down from above Gaza, and making evasive maneuvers to avoid ground fire…
The Palestinian Ministry of Health on Thursday issued updated casualty figures, saying that at least 9,061 people have been killed going back over three weeks of the conflict, including 3,760 children and 2,326 women, according to officials. There are over 30,000 wounded on the Palestinian side. The ministry further cited that just in the last 24 hours alone, at least 256 people have been killed.
Fighting has also intensified in the West Bank, which has witnessed growing clashes involving police and Israeli settlers cracking down on Palestinian protesters. In some locations there are reports of Israeli settlers attacking and setting fire to Palestinian-owned businesses and olive trees.
Reports of settler violence against Palestinians in the village of Deir Sharaf in the West Bank:
Eyewitnesses have told regional media: “It’s the same story in nearly every village in the south Hebron Hills. Israeli settlers seize livestock, wreck agricultural equipment and destroy the olive groves upon which Palestinian farmers depend for their livelihood.” The report added, “They arrive armed with M16 machine guns and beat up villagers with their fists, sticks, iron bars, or the butts of their rifles.”
end
ISRAEL VS HAMAS VS GLOBAL SOUTH
Somewhat troublesome
It seems Bolivia has a short memory: in 1994 when they had their huge earthquake, who was first on the scene to get them aid? Israel.
(zerohedge)
Global South Countries Sever Ties With Israel, Recall Ambassadors, As Gaza Deaths Mount
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 09:20 PM
Global South countries have begun severing formal ties with Israel and pulling their ambassadors after three weeks of Israeli airstrikes on the Gaza Strip, and now days into a ground operation. The death toll among mostly Palestinian civilians has surpassed 8,700 – causing Bolivia to be among the latest to cut official ties.
“We demand an end to the attacks” in the Gaza Strip “which have so far caused thousands of civilian deaths and the forced displacement of Palestinians,” Minister of the Presidency Maria Nela Prada told a press conference, and announced new humanitarian aid to Gazans is being readied.
But quickly following this Israel lashed out, charging the South American country with “capitulation to terrorism and to the ayatollah regime in Iran.” Of course, Hamas welcomed the move.
Bolivia’s neighbors Chile and Colombia have also recalled their ambassadors while condemning what they called a military campaign of ethnic cleansing aimed at Palestinians.
“I have decided to recall our ambassador to Israel for consultation. If Israel does not stop the massacre of the Palestinian people, we cannot be there,” Colombian President Gustavo Petro said in a social media post.
Chilean President Gabriel Boric also accused Israel of “unacceptable violations of International Humanitarian Law” which is based on “collective punishment” the population. Chile, it should be noted, has a huge Palestinian population – as do some other Latin American countries.
Though not having formal relations, others with leftist autocrats condemned Israel as well, notably Cuba and Venezuela – both condemning “genocide” against Palestinians. Also, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had used similar language last week. Cuban President Miguel Diaz Canel has even blasted Washington as “the historical accomplice of Zionist barbarism.”
But most important for Israel in terms maintaining stable allies in the Mideast region, is fresh reaction from Jordan, which made formal peace with Israel in the mid-1990s:
In a sign of increasing alarm over the war among Arab countries, Jordan on Wednesday recalled its ambassador from Israel and told Israel’s ambassador to remain out of the country. Jordan, a key U.S. ally, signed a peace deal with Israel in 1994, the second Arab country after Egypt to do so.
Jordan’s Deputy Prime Minister, Ayman al-Safadi, who is also the foreign minister, said the return of the ambassadors is linked to Israel “stopping its war on Gaza … and the humanitarian catastrophe it is causing.” He warned of the potential of the conflict to spread, threatening “the security of the entire region.”
Jordan’s internal stability has long hinged on its stance toward the Palestinians, given the bulk of its population is actually made up of Palestinian refugees, many which go back to the very era of Israel’s founding.
Israel legitimately fears the scenario of a domino effect where country after country might sever ties or at least create diplomatic distance. Pro-Palestinian activists, among them the the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement, have long sought to get Israel labeled an “apartheid state”. Israel has in response focused on a global lobbying campaign to prevent the movement from gaining traction in various countries.
END
IRAQ/CHINA/ RUSSIA//
Iraq moves closer to Russia and further from USA influence
(Watkins/OilPrice)
Iraq Moves Further Out Of US’s Influence With New Russia And China Deals
With the U.S.’s current primary Middle East focus being on trying to deter a widening of the Israel-Hamas War, China and Russia have been busy cementing their influence elsewhere in the region, most recently in Iraq. This remains a key target for Beijing and Moscow to expand their presence for three main reasons. First, it could easily become the world’s top producer of crude oil within a relatively short time if the endemic corruption in its hydrocarbons sector was curtailed. Second, its geographical positioning in the heart of the Middle East make it a vital link in building a network of logistical connections from the east of Eurasia into the west of Europe. And third, together with Iran under whose enduring influence its operates, it forms the core of the spiritual, political, military, and cultural Shia Crescent. A flurry of activity in the past couple of weeks involving Iraq, Russia, and China underline how seriously all these plans are moving forward.
Firstly, plans to increase Iraq’s oil production and then to send that extra output to China in the first instance moved up a gear in last week’s Cabinet meeting, chaired by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani.
At the meeting, a senior source who works closely with Iraq’s Oil Ministry exclusively told OilPrice.com last week, the Cabinet agreed to increase crude oil exports to China by 50 percent – from 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 150,000 bpd. It was also agreed that the daily production capacity from Iraq’s largest oil field – Rumaila, featuring partners BP (47.6 percent), China National Petroleum Corporation (46.4 percent), and Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization (6 percent) – is increased from 1.3 million bpd to 1.4 million bpd by the end of this year. This is part of Iraq’s plan to increase its oil production to 8 million bpd by 2028. As analysed in depth in my new book on the new global oil market order, there is no fundamental reason why such an increase cannot be achieved – even 12 million bpd is perfectly feasible, given Iraq’s oil resources – with the only constraint being the pervasive corruption in its oil and gas sector that has hampered such progress for years.
Secondly, at the same Cabinet meeting last week, it was also agreed that Iraq should now give its full support to rolling out all aspects of the wide-ranging ‘Iraq-China Framework Agreement’ signed in December 2021, but agreed in principle more than a year before that.
This agreement is very similar in scope and scale to the all-encompassing ‘Iran-China 25-Year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement’, as first revealed anywhere in the world in my 3 September 2019 article on the subject and fully examined in my new book. A key part of both deals is that China has first refusal on all oil, gas, and petrochemicals projects that come up in Iraq for the duration of the deal, and that it is given at least a 30 percent discount on all oil, gas, and petrochemicals it buys. Another key part of the Iraq-China Framework Agreement is that Beijing is allowed to build factories across the country, with a corollary build-out of supportive infrastructure. This includes, importantly for its ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ – railway links, all overseen by its own management staff from Chinese companies on the ground in Iraq. The railway infrastructure in Iraq will be completed out after the network in Iran has been finished, and this began in earnest in late 2020 with the contract to electrify the main 900-kilometre railway connecting Tehran to the north-eastern city of Mashhad. As an adjunct to this, plans were put in place to establish a Tehran-Qom-Isfahan high-speed train line and to extend this upgraded network up to the north-west through Tabriz. Tabriz – home to several key sites relating to oil, gas, and petrochemicals, and the starting point for the Tabriz-Ankara gas pipeline – is to be a pivot point of the 2,300-kilometre New Silk Road that links Urumqi (the capital of China’s western Xinjiang Province) to Tehran, and will connect Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan along the way, before it then runs into Europe, via Turkey.
Thirdly, given the scale and scope of the infrastructure developments to be implemented, there will be an extensive presence of Chinese ‘security’ personnel at the key projects throughout Iraq, the Iraq source told OilPrice.com last week.
These will, in turn, be supported by security personnel attached to Iranian companies that will also be involved in the China-Iraq projects, notably those from Khatam al-Anbia – a massive conglomerate controlled by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The IRGC remains the key guardians of the ideas of Iran’s 1979 Islamic revolution, whose messaging it achieves in large part from the funding, training, and logistical support of multiple proxy militias across the Middle East, including Hamas in Palestine, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The expended presence of Iranian firms with heavy IRGC contingent in Iraq, such as Khatam al-Anbia, will further enable Iran to push ahead with its long-held plan to build a strategically crucial ‘land bridge’ to the Mediterranean coast of Syria. Additional personnel across all the key infrastructure development sites in Iraq will come from Rosoboronexport, Russia’s state-owned monopoly for the export of all military and dual-use products, services, and technologies.
Russia’s long-term plans to control a unified Iraq (along with China) – including the currently semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in the north – as also analysed in depth in my new book on the new global oil market order, have also advanced in the last two weeks. October 11 saw Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Sudani meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, ostensibly to talk about the development of Iraq’s oil sector and the presence of Russian oil companies in it. In reality, according to the source who works closely with Iraq’s Oil Ministry, the discussions also included the future of oil exports from Kurdistan to Turkey, in which Russian oil giant, Rosneft, plays a key part, given its effective control over much of Kurdistan’s oil sector since 2017, as also covered in full in the book. Three days later, Iraq’s Deputy Prime Minister for Energy and Oil Minister, Hayan Abdul Ghani, met with Alexander Dyukov, Chairman of Gazprom Neft to discuss future oil and gas projects in the south and north of Iraq.
end
GERMANY/HAMAS
JERUSALEM POST/REUTERS
German minister announces complete ban on Hamas activities
By REUTERSNOVEMBER 2, 2023 11:28
Germany will from Wednesday ban the activities of Hamas, already a designated terrorist organization in the country, as well as the pro-Palestinian group Samidoun, the interior minister announced on Thursday.
“With Hamas, I have today completely banned the activities of a terrorist organization whose aim is to destroy the state of Israel,” Nancy Faeser said in a statement.
Samidoun’s German wing will also be disbanded, it added. Faeser said the international network works under the guise of a solidarity group for prisoners to spread anti-Israel and antisemitic propaganda.
END
YEMEN/HOUTHIS/ISRAEL
(Jerusalem Post)
Yemen’s Houthis target Israel with batch of drones -group’s military spokesperson
By REUTERSNOVEMBER 1, 2023 22:37
Yemen’s Houthis have launched a large batch of drones at several targets in Israel, the group’s military spokesperson said on Wednesday.
The group will “continue carrying out military operations in support of Palestinians until the Israeli aggression in Gaza stops,” Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sareahe said.
end
Israel asks hospital ships to come and get wounded Palestians. They will never return to GAZA
(Jerusalem Post/Reuters)
Israel asks countries to send hospital ships for wounded Palestinians
“I don’t know yet if it is happening,” said Ambassador Ron Prosor. “We asked for this. I suppose it is being discussed.”
By REUTERSNOVEMBER 2, 2023 13:54Updated: NOVEMBER 2, 2023 14:24
Israel’s former ambassador to the UN Prosor speaks to the media at U.N. headquarters in New York(photo credit: REUTERS)
Israel has asked foreign countries to send hospital ships to help treat wounded Palestinians who are allowed to leave the war-ravaged Gaza Strip to neighboring Egypt, the Israeli ambassador to Germany said on Thursday.
France said last week it was sending a naval vessel, “Tonnere,” to the eastern Mediterranean on what it described as a mission to support Gaza hospitals. Egypt this week began admitting limited numbers of wounded across its Gaza border.
In a Kan radio interview, Israel’s ambassador to Germany, Ron Prosor, was asked whether Israel had asked France and other European countries to send hospital ships to receive Gazans wounded at Al-Arish, an Egyptian port close to the Palestinian enclave.
He described the scenario posited in the question as correct, saying he had submitted such a request to Berlin.
Israel has made the request, the ball is in Europe’s court
“I don’t know yet if it is happening,” said Prosor, a former director-general of Israel’s Foreign Ministry. “We asked for this. I suppose it is being discussed. There is a leaning, here in Europe, to help in humanitarian matters in any way possible.”Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Ron Prosor speaks at a conference organized by Jerusalem Post, in New York City, USA. April 29, 2012. (credit: Marc Israel Sellem/POOL/FLASH90)
An official who declined to be identified by name or nationality said the “Tonnere” has 70 hospital beds as well as two operating theaters.
Israel also asked Italy to send a hospital ship but has yet to hear back, the official added.
END
HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON/ISRAEL
ROBERT H: TO US:
Big speech supposedly coming from Nasrallah
Usman-e-Ali on X: “HEZBOLLAH & IRAN informed America that they have until Friday morning (before Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah’s speech) to end the aggression against Gaza,or else they will enter into a direct and open war with the entire resistance axis and there will be no going back. https://t.co/oE2umbB7uo” / X
If this turns out to be true the markets will dive on Friday sending the world in to chaos. And gas prices will soar. Iran does not have to fire a shot. All they need to do is close the straits of Hormuz to oil shipments and 20% of oil will be removed from the market. America has zero chance with 17 day’s of supply in the strategic Reserve to avoid disaster.
Israel is planning something as the tunnels remain a serious problem. probably use a non lethal
nerve gas to immobilizes everybody for 12 hrs. Then they go in and kill them off and rescue the hostages.
(zerohedge)
Israeli Army Has Gaza City Surrounded, But Hamas Tunnels Remain Serious Problem
THURSDAY, NOV 02, 2023 – 03:55 PM
Update(1555ET): IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari has said ground and tank forces have at this point surrounded Gaza City. “Our troops have completed the encirclement of Gaza City, the center of Hamas activity,” he said in a late Thursday (local) press conference. The IDF has further announced the deaths of “130 terrorists” in the latest battles.
But Hamas’ significant network of tunnels continues to plague IDF troops, given the ability for Hamas mounting successful ambushes from hidden holes in the ground, which the group has been keen to boast about, such as in the following…
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said he is preparing “unique solutions” to destroy the vast network of tunnels. “We have unique solutions to reach all the tunnels and dismantle them underground; we are ready to do it,” he said Thursday while addressing a combat engineering unit.
“We will reach everywhere, and then the terrorists will have two options: either die in the tunnel or come out. And there, either die from the fire of our forces or surrender unconditionally,” he said. Some prior reports suggested Israel could be planning to inject poison gas or nerve agents into the tunnels, but others dismissed these somewhat fantastical reports as not credible or even possible.
There’s also the likelihood that releasing gas into tunnels would kill any Israeli and foreign hostages being held there. Dealing in such large quantities of chemical weapons or nerve gas on an active battlefield would also of course be highly dangerous for the very troops trying to deliver them into the tunnels.
Meanwhile, PM Netanyahu is said to be mulling the White House’s new call for a temporary truce or humanitarian “pause” in fighting. This would involve Israel agreeing to halt attacks for a few hours, according to emerging reports.
Israel has concentrated its forces to the north of Gaza City, and just to the south…
‘Renewable Massacre’: SolarEdge Melts Down After Weak Guidance
THURSDAY, NOV 02, 2023 – 07:55 AM
The renewable energy industry is in full collapse mode this week. First, Orsted A/S, the world’s largest offshore wind farm developer, abandoned two major US projects due to supply chain and interest rate impacts, and now solar stocks are being clubbed like a baby seal in US premarket trading on Thursday after solar equipment-makers SolarEdge and Sunrun reported dismal guidance amid waning demand.
Let’s start with solar equipment maker SolarEdge Technologies. The company said current quarter revenues are expected between $300 million to $350 million, far below analysts’ estimates of $718.9 million, as per Bloomberg Consensus data.
Fourth Quarter Forecast
Sees revenue $300 million to $350 million, estimate $718.9 million (Bloomberg Consensus)
Sees adjusted gross margin 5% to 8%
Last month, SolarEdge adjusted its revenue forecast for the third quarter, citing high inventory levels and sliding installations. This situation resulted in significant order cancellations and a clearing of backlogged orders from its European distributors during the quarter.
Third Quarter Results
Adjusted loss per share 55c vs. EPS 91c y/y, estimate EPS 95c
Revenue $725.3 million, -13% y/y, estimate $732.6 million
Gross profit $142.8 million
Gross margin 19.7% vs. 26.5% y/y
Operating expense $159.5 million, +47% y/y, estimate $130.3 million
Sales and marketing expense $40.4 million, -5.6% y/y, estimate $43.8 million
R&D expenses $80.1 million, estimate $82.1 million
Adjusted net loss $31.0 million, estimate profit $47.1 million
SolarEdge CEO Zvi Lando said in a Wednesday statement: “The results for the third quarter fell short of our prior expectations and are reflecting a slow market environment.”
Shares of SolarEdge crashed 20% in premarket trading.
SolarEdge’s short interest soars.
Also, SunPower Corp. shares are sliding in the premarket (down 4%) after it slashed its full-year guidance as earnings fell short of analysts’ expectations on softer demand for solar panels.
“We are currently facing stormy seas,” CEO Peter Faricy said on a conference call. Yet another ‘green’ company suffers from the higher interest rate environment.
And Sunrun shares slid 9% in premarket trading after reporting revenue for the third quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
Meanwhile, President Biden’s ‘wind revolution’ is blowing down as Orsted A/S reported this week that it has abandoned two major US projects due to supply chain and interest rate impacts. All those decarbonization targets won’t be achieved if interest rates are higher for longer.
END
GLOBAL VACCINE/COVID ISSUES
Nearly 1 In 3 COVID-19 Vaccine Recipients Suffered Neurological Side Effects: Study
The study analyzed 19,096 people who received COVID-19 vaccines in Italy in July 2021, out of which 15,368 had taken the Pfizer vaccine, 2,077 had taken the Moderna version, and 1,651 took the AstraZeneca version.
While both Pfizer and Moderna are mRNA vaccines, AstraZeneca, being an adenovirus vaccine, uses a different mechanism to trigger the immune response.
The study found that about 31.2 percent of vaccinated individuals developed post-vaccination neurological complications, particularly among those injected with the AstraZeneca jab. Different vaccines had a different “neurological risk profile.”
The neurological risk profile of the AstraZeneca vaccine included headaches, tremors, muscle spasms, insomnia, and tinnitus, while the risk profile of the Moderna vaccine included sleepiness, vertigo, diplopia (double vision), paresthesia (a feeling of numbness or itching on the skin), taste and smell alterations, and dysphonia (hoarseness or loss of normal voice).
As to Pfizer vaccines, researchers found “an increased risk” of cognitive fog or difficulty in concentration.
AstraZeneca Risks
More than 53 percent of individuals who took an AstraZeneca shot suffered from headaches, which usually lasted for one day. Over 13 percent developed tremors, which typically reverted after a day as well.
Insomnia was reported among 5.8 percent of AstraZeneca recipients. However, the study notes that researchers were unsure whether the individuals actually developed insomnia or had a “misperception of their sleep quality due to vaccination stress.”
Tinnitus was reported by 2.7 percent of the people who took AstraZeneca shots. Tinnitus is a condition in which an individual hears ringing or other noises which are not caused by an external sound.
All these health complications had a higher risk of occurring after taking the first dose of the vaccine.
The study speculated that complications related to the AstraZeneca vaccine are attributable to two factors. “Firstly, the nature of the vaccine, which is a modified adenovirus vector that results in significant and persistent systemic immune activation; secondly, individual vulnerability related to a predisposing biology.”
Moderna and Pfizer Risks
Sleepiness was found in 39.7 percent of those who took Moderna jabs, with the condition usually lasting for a week. It suggested that there “could be a strict relationship between the development of sleepiness and immune responses to vaccine/infection.”
Narcolepsy is a condition in which the brain is unable to control the ability to sleep or stay awake.
“Considering that the same can occur for COVID-19 vaccines, future investigations monitoring the new-onset hypersomnia findings in vulnerable individuals are urgently needed.”
Hypersomnia is the inability to stay awake and alert during the daytime, even though the person may have had plenty of sleep during the night.
About 15.9 percent of people who received Moderna shots had vertigo, a sensation which makes the individual feel that they or their surrounding environment is moving or spinning. It typically lasted for a day.
Paresthesia—a feeling of numbness or itching on the skin for no apparent reason—was reported in 14.5 percent of Moderna vaccine recipients, which went away after a day.
Among the people who received a Moderna jab, 2.7 percent reported diplopia, also known as double vision, which also lasted for about a day. “Symptomatic people showed an increased risk to develop diplopia after the second dose, as if a reactivation of the immune response was necessary to trigger diplopia.”
Meanwhile, about 6.4 percent of Pfizer vaccine recipients reported suffering from cognitive fog, with the condition usually reversing in a week.
“Brain fog is a type of cognitive impairment that presents as a ‘foggy brain state’, including a lack of intellectual clarity, difficulty with concentration, mental fatigue and anxiety,” the study said.
“Hypotheses including systemic inflammation crossing the blood–brain barrier, neuroinflammation after viral infection leads and microglial activation are emerging as explanations of this phenomenon in COVID-19 patients. An alternative speculation is that symptomatic people may have a subclinical cognitive dysfunction before vaccination, and that vaccination is a trigger.”
Females Highly Affected
The study found that females faced an “increased risk of developing neurological complications” following COVID-19 vaccination. “Our findings are in line with those of a recent study that revealed that several factors, including the female sex, were associated with greater odds of adverse effects,” it said.
The researchers suggested that greater female susceptibility to the vaccines’ neurological complications may be due to “genetic and hormonal factors.”
Moreover, a primary female sex steroid called estradiol triggers a specific immunity process to produce “antibodies against infections.”
The study also raised concerns about comorbidities. In medical parlance, comorbidity describes the existence of more than one disease or condition in a body at the same time, which may or may not interact with one another.
“The evidence that immune system dysfunctions (allergies/immunodeficiency disorders) are frequently reported in our symptomatic group is more than a chance occurrence,” researchers said.
Comorbidities were present in 47.6 percent of the AstraZeneca vaccine recipients, 38.8 percent of those who took Moderna jabs, and 41.5 percent of individuals who received Pfizer shots, the study said.
In the AstraZeneca group, both allergies and non-neurological diseases were reported. “A history of antitumoral and anticoagulant drugs was more frequent in this population,” the study said.
Among Moderna and Pfizer recipients, allergies were “more frequently” observed. While some people who took Moderna had a prior history of neurological diseases and transfusions as well as previous COVID-19 infection, those who received Pfizer vaccines had a history of immunodeficiency disorders.
Even though the study detailed neurological complications arising from COVID-19 vaccination, it admitted to certain limitations.
“Firstly, our results should be interpreted with caution because of a possible overestimation of neurological events resulting from the self-reported symptoms,” it said.
“Secondly, we evaluated the risks associated with the first and second doses of the vaccine; however, the data concerning the second dose were limited, thus representing a potential bias in the study.”
While admitting its limitations, the study concluded that “clinicians should be aware that several neurological complications may commonly occur after COVID-19 vaccines.”
“Caution should be used when administering COVID-19 vaccines to vulnerable people, such as to those who suffer from allergies,” the study stated. “We strongly believe that our findings are relevant for public health regarding the safety of vaccines in a large cohort.”
The Epoch Times reached out to Moderna, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca for comment.
Additional Neurological Findings
Cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough wrote about the study discussing neurological effects following COVID shots in an article on Substack.
“A shocking 31.2 percent of respondents to this large dataset sustained neurologic injury after two injections with verified data in health registries,” he wrote. “Most of the risk estimates indicate the safety profile is unacceptable. It is alarming that all neurological societies to date still recommend COVID-19 vaccines and none have issued safety warnings on the products.”
Dr. McCullough explained that an excess risk of 20 percent or greater is considered “clinically important.”
Multiple other studies have found evidence of COVID-19 vaccines being linked to neurological complications. Back in October 2021, a study published in the Neurological Sciences journal stated that the “most devastating neurological post-vaccination complication is cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST).”
CVST occurs when a blood clot develops in the venous sinuses of the brain. This blocks the blood from draining out of the brain, eventually resulting in the blood leaking into brain tissues and forming a hemorrhage, according to Johns Hopkins Medicine.
The study found that CVST was “frequently reported in females of childbearing age,” generally among those who took an adenovector vaccine. Individuals who received mRNA vaccination were reported to have Bell’s palsy, in which facial muscles weaken or enter into paralysis.
A November 2022 study in Current Neurology and Neuroscience Reports made similar findings, stating that there is “a greater than expected occurrence of severe neurological adverse events.”
Dr. McCullough cited this study in an article the following month.
“Because the vaccines contain lipid nanoparticles loaded with genetic material that code for the damaging Spike protein, each patient faces a Russian Roulette of whether or not the nervous system will be hemodynamically showered with the damaging vaccine particles,” he wrote.
Despite studies suggesting the risk of medical complications, some experts continue to advise people to get COVID-19 jabs. According to John Hopkins Medicine, both Pfizer and Moderna are “highly effective in preventing serious disease, hospitalization, and death from COVID-19.”
It recommended people to get a COVID-19 shot as “we believe that their benefits outweigh their risks,” Johns Hopkins Medicine said.
According to a position statement from the American Academy of Neurology (AAN) issued in 2021, the organization recommended COVID-19 vaccine mandates for health care employees and supported vaccinations for children under the age of 12.
end
Unravelling the Wuhan cover up. They should hang Fauci and his gang
(zerohedge)
Unraveling The Wuhan Cover-Up: How Fauci Conspired With Virologists To Deceive The Public And Smear Critics
THURSDAY, NOV 02, 2023 – 09:40 AM
In the tumultuous dawn of 2020, as the world grappled with a pandemic that would shape public health policy, censorship, and reveal America’s involvement in deadly pathogen research, a quieter narrative was unfolding behind closed doors. A story that would not only bring truth to the narrative behind the origins of COVID-19 but also shed light on the dark corners of scientific research and the lengths to which some institutions would go to protect their interests.
To that end, former US Senate investigator Paul Thacker has done yet another a deep dive, weaving together key breadcrumbs surrounding Dr. Anthony Fauci, his circle of virologists, the NIH / NIAID’s coronavirus biodefense and research programs, and the subsequent censorship, coverup, and smearing of journalists in order to protect the narrative.
As Thacker writes;
So much has happened since December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was notified of a new pneumonia outbreak in Wuhan, China. The director sent me 6 pages of questions that we went over during the interview, but since most of them concern the cover-up of a possible Wuhan lab accident, I decided to put that down into an article.
Much of what we learned about the Wuhan cover-up leaked out over time, because Anthony Fauci and others in the government have been hiding information from the public and virologists such as Scripps Research’s Kristian Andersen have been lying to a complicit media. We only learned last July, for example, that Andersen didn’t believe the conclusions from the “Proximal Origins” paper he published in Nature Medicine that denigrated the possibility of a Wuhan lab accident.
“Natural selection and accidental release are both plausible scenarios,” Andersen messaged several scientists, before then publishing the “Proximal Origins” paper that concluded a Wuhan lab accident was not plausible. Andersen then trumpeted that paper to reporters.
Instead of going over how this all unfolded over almost four years, I decided to lay out what happened, based on what we now know. It’s been a long, tough journey.
Early Days: Connecting the Dots
By the end of January 2020, just a month after the outbreak began in Wuhan, China, key figures in the scientific community were already exchanging covert communications. Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the NIH’s NIAID, received emails detailing the NIAID’s financial backing of some of the world’s foremost coronavirus experts, including Peter Daszak of EcoHealth Alliance and Ralph Baric at the University of North Carolina.
Fauci’s NIAID oversaw a large program on biodefense and research on coronaviruses—the type of virus causing the pandemic, and which scientists abbreviate as “CoV.” The press officer noted that Fauci’s NIAID funded many of the world’s coronavirus experts, including Peter Daszak of the nonprofit EcoHealth Alliance, Ralph Baric at the University of North Carolina, and Ian Lipkin of Columbia University. –The Disinformation Chronicle
“EcoHealth group (Peter Daszak et al) has for years been among the biggest players in coronavirus work, also in collaboration with Ralph Baric, Ian Lipkin and others,” wrote an NIH officer to Fauci on January 27, noting further that Fauci had been funding Daszak’s research in China.
This raised immediate eyebrows. Why? Daszak’s EcoHealth Alliance had been funded by Fauci’s NIAID for coronavirus research in China for the past five years.
Hushed Conversations and Burner Phones
The urgency of these behind-the-scenes communications was palpable. Jeremey Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, one of the world’s leading virology funders, felt the need to use a burner phone to discuss sensitive matters. This was not normal scientific collaboration. This was a covert operation in real-time.Jeremy Farrar (photo: Ruben Sprich/Reuters)
“We should use different phones; avoid putting things in emails; and ditch our normal email addresses and phone contacts,” Farrar later admitted.Via the Disinformation Chronicle
The Suspicions Surface
Soon, cracks began to show. Dr. Kristian Andersen of Scripps Research, in an email to Fauci, pointed out that some features of the COVID virus “look engineered.” Andersen’s statement directly contradicted the prevailing narrative that the virus was a natural occurrence.
As Thacker writes:
Fauci had also begun a series of calls and emails with various virologists, including Kristian Andersen of Scripps Research. Emailing Fauci, Andersen explained that he had analyzed the COVID virus genetic sequence and “some of the features (potentially) look engineered.” Andersen added that, while opinions could change, he and other virologists felt the virus was not natural or consistent with “expectations with evolutionary theory.”
Fauci thanked Andersen on February 1 and then joined a conference call later that day that Farrar organized with Eddie Holmes, Kristian Andersen and other virologists. “Obviously ask everyone to treat in total confidence,” Farrar emailed Fauci.
“The call with Jeremy Farrar (Wellcome Trust) went very well,” Fauci would later tell several government scientists in an email – including his boss, Francis Collins.
“Francis Collins joined and there were several highly credible scientists (including and in addition to the two that I spoke with last night) on the call with expertise in evolutionary biology.”
The Synchronized Denial
But instead of addressing these concerns head-on, a well-coordinated attempt to control the narrative began. Multiple scientific papers, promoted by top virologists and government officials, were quickly published, all singing the same tune: the idea that COVID-19 emerged from a lab was nothing more than a baseless “conspiracy theory.”Via the Disinformation Chronicle
These emails show that Fauci and many of the world’s top virologists knew by February 1, 2020, that Fauci was funding EcoHealth Alliance to do coronavirus research in China and that the COVID virus did not seem natural. Some virologists were even suspicious that a gene may have been inserted into the COVID virus—suspicions only heightened because Wuhan scientists were doing gain-of-function research to genetically modify bat coronaviruses. But instead of alerting the public, emails show that Fauci, Farrar, and multiple virologists began plotting to deny these same suspicions by orchestrating the publication of three scientific papers to label the possibility of a lab accident a “conspiracy theory.”
On February 19, EcoHealth Alliance’s Peter Daszak and Wellcome Trust’s Farrar published a statement in The Lancet that claimed a possible Wuhan lab accident was a “conspiracy theory.” The statement did not disclose that Daszak was funding research led by Shi Zhengli at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. A week later, on February 26, virologists working behind the scenes with Ralph Baric and Shi Zhengli published a commentary in Emerging Microbes & Infections that claimed it was a conspiracy theory to speculate that the pandemic started in a Wuhan lab. Three weeks after that, on March 17, Kristian Andersen, Ian Lipkin, and Eddie Holmes published a paper titled “Proximal Origins” in Nature Medicine that concluded a lab accident was not “plausible.” -Disinformation Chronicle
After silencing the science community and the media, these same virologists then began campaigning inside the intelligence community to shut down any inquiry into a possible Chinese lab accident, later admitting they had briefed officials from the State Department, FBI and the CIA. Fauci and allied virologists continue to cover-up their role in denying the possibility of a Wuhan lab accident causing the pandemic.
“A lot of what you’re seeing as attacks on me, quite frankly, are attacks on science,” Fauci told NBC as his role in orchestrating a Wuhan cover-up first started becoming public. “Because all of the things that I have spoken about, consistently from the very beginning, have been fundamentally based on science.”
Conspiring to label critics “conspiracy theorists”
Days after Jeremy Farrar organized the February 1 call with Fauci and other virologists, he sent Fauci and Collins the draft summary of a paper he received from virologist Eddie Holmes that would later become the “Proximal Origins” paper. “Please treat in confidence—a very rough first draft from Eddie and team—they will send on the edited, cleaner version later,” Farrar emailed Fauci and Collins, on February 4. The following day, Farrar emailed Fauci and Collins, “Tony and Francis, The revised draft from Eddie, copied here.”Via the Disinformation Chronicle
Two days later on February 6, EcoHealth Alliance’s Peter Daszak began organizing researchers to sign a statement in The Lancet to call any discussion of a possible Wuhan lab accident a “conspiracy theory.” In a February 6 email, Daszak explained that some of his fellow virologists should not sign The Lancet statement “so it has some distance from us and therefore doesn’t work in a counterproductive way.”
Three days later, Fauci dismissed the possibility of a lab accident as a “conspiracy theory” on a February 9 podcast with former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich:
“There’s a sort of urban legend,” Mr. Gingrich prodded Dr. Fauci, “that there’s a biological warfare center in Wuhan and that the coronavirus escaped from that.”
“I’ve heard these conspiracy theories,” Dr. Fauci replied. “And like all conspiracy theories, Newt, they’re just conspiracy theories.” Fauci added that while he could not say that scenario was impossible “the things you’re hearing are still in the realm of conspiracy theories without any scientific basis.”
Three days after that, on February 12, a group of virologists in America, including Linda Saif at Ohio University, began preparing an essay for the journal Emerging Microbes & Infections. One of the author’s forwarded an email from Ralph Baric that included his comments and changes to the essay’s text, although Baric wrote that he wanted to hide his involvement.
Four days later, on February 16, the authors of the Emerging Microbes & Infections paper emailed each other private concerns that some samples of viruses from Shi Zhengli’s Wuhan Institute of Virology “may not have been handled properly and leaked out of the lab…But just a possibility.”Via the Disinformation Chronicle
Some hours later, the same authors discussed comments that the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s Shi Zhengli had sent them on their paper—the same researcher that many suspect may have caused the lab accident.Via the Disinformation Chronicle
The following day, on February 17, Farrar sent an email to virologists asking them to make some last-minute changes to their “Proximal Origins” paper. “Sorry to micro-manage/microedit!” Farrar wrote. “But would you be willing to change one sentence?”Via the Disinformation Chronicle
“Thanks for shepherding this paper,” Lipkin wrote back to Farrar.
“I will push Nature,” Farrar responded, meaning push Nature to accept the paper.
Kristian Andersen and his co-authors then published a draft of the “Proximal Origins” paper on a preprint server that same day. One scientists later admitted that Farrar should have been listed as an author.
Two days after, on February 19, The Lancet published Daszak’s statement that said, “We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that covid-19 does not have a natural origin.” Several of the 27 scientists who signed the statement omitted reporting their ties to Daszak’s EcoHealth Alliance, which funded research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
Signatories included Jeremy Farrar, who was working behind the scenes with Kristian Andersen to publish the “Proximal Origins” paper, and Linda Saif, who was working to publish the essay in Emerging Microbes & Infections.
optimal non-neutralizing, non-sterilizing mRNA vaccines that do not stop infection or transmission, placing the virus’s spike under sub-optimal non-lethal Darwinian natural selection pressure
One additional mutation L452R that increases infectivity.
No need to be concerned, go on with life as normal, COVID is done, the emergency is over, strongly protect the elderly and vulnerable as you would for any viral respiratory illness alike (ILI) common cold, flu etc. No lockdowns, no school closures, no more mRNA or DNA vaccines, none, not one, no healthy person 70 and under needs any of these vaccines that are deadly and I argue no one, no healthy child must get any of these deadly vaccines. Focus on nasal-oral rinces even with saline and water, povidone-iodine, hydrogen peroxide, use vitamin D, ventilate the home, stay home if sick, improved hand-washing etc. Common sense. ONLY. Turn off CNN and FOX talking head medical idiots like Siegal and the rest. Idiots. Vaccine shills. Their advices killed Americans.
END
END
END
EVOL NEWS
Blinken Admits Hamas Will Get Hands On U.S. AidREAD MORE…
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MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
Can The Fed Really Risk A Dovish Turn In This Kind Of Environment
THURSDAY, NOV 02, 2023 – 10:20 AM
By Ben Picton, senior market analyst at Rabobank
The FOMC opted to leave the Fed Funds rate unchanged yesterday with the upper bound at 5.50%. This was expected, so attention turned to parsing the statement and Jerome Powell’s prepared remarks to divine any shifts in the Fed’s reaction function. The economy expanded at a ”strong” pace in the third quarter, rather than the obviously more mediocre “solid” pace that it was previously travelling at. Hawkish!
But lo, we are concurrently warned not to put too much emphasis on the September dot plot, which implies another rate hike. A new set of dots is due next month and the old ones lose reliability with age. Or so Powell tells us.
But what’s in a rate hike? Surely a tightening by any other name would sting as keenly. Quantitative tightening continues apace and the curve has steepened ~86bps since the end of June. Maybe the bond market has done the FOMC’s job for it?
And how much tightening at the long end is equal to one hike at the short end? These are all open questions that Powell says he doesn’t have a definite answer for, but the message that further hikes are a meeting-by-meeting proposition, and that the Fed is sticking with its hawkish bias, is unchanged.
The price action suggests that traders are increasingly sceptical that the hawkish bias will ever be realised. The US 10-year yield fell by 20bps, stocks rallied hard and Brent crude closed below the key $85 technical level. Less dramatic falls in 2-year yields caused the curve to flatten even as the market upped bets on rate cuts next year.
We don’t think the Fed will tighten any further. Our Fed watcher Philip Marey has long suspected the hiking cycle is all over but the shouting. His thoughts on the developments yesterday here.
The Fed wasn’t the only action yesterday. The latest JOLTS and ISM surveys were also released. JOLTS showed job vacancies of 9,553k in September. That’s 56,000 more than August’s downwardly-revised figure, but the clear downtrend that has been in effect since the second quarter of 2022 is still intact.
The ISM manufacturing index suffered its biggest monthly drop in more than a year to record its lowest reading in three months. The 46.7 index number was worse than even the most pessimistic forecast on the Bloomberg survey, and echoes the shabby results in recent days for China, Japan and (worst of all) Germany. So, all four of the world’s leading manufacturing nations are experiencing industry contraction.
In some ways, that is a bit of a surprise. Much has been made of the re-shoring/friendshoring/near-shoring meme, and both Japan and the USA should be major beneficiaries of that. Add in the fact that the USA is running a fiscal deficit somewhere in the vicinity of 6% of GDP, and Bidenomics has provided juicy subsidies for firms looking to manufacture in the USA. Manufacturing should be kicking with the wind.
Census Bureau data shows that annual spending on new manufacturing construction has almost doubled since 2018, but optimism has receded as responses to the ISM survey suggest that the near term outlook is deteriorating. The effects of the UAW strikes are undoubtedly a factor here, but a shrinking forward order book, reduced price pressures and softening employment suggest a broader economic slowdown that could coincide nicely with our forecast of a US recession starting in Q4 of this year.
As it has been for much of the post-Covid era, Canada could again be the canary in the coal mine for the USA. Canadian GDP growth in August was zero for the second month running, and the Canadian statistics bureau is forecasting a similar result in September. If that comes to pass, Canada is in a mild technical recession as growth in Q2 growth was negative.
BOC Governor Tiff Macklem has maintained a similar hawkish bias to the Fed, and is similarly disbelieved by markets. He set tongues wagging overnight when he started to talk about the BOC cutting rates if core inflation started to trend lower (which it isn’t). Jerome Powell says there is no discussion of rate cuts for the time being, but might he start to change his tune early next year too?
Given that fiscal policy is already incredibly expansionary in a time of near full employment, it takes some imagination to forecast Biden increasing the deficit to stave off a downturn. But it IS an election year, and neither Trump nor Biden seem to have any scruples around the budget balance. We don’t think there is any prospect of reduction of guns and butter spending. Neither Biden nor Trump want to take away the butter, and regular readers of this Daily will be aware that we expect that the geopolitical outlook will necessitate much more spending on guns.
Can the Fed risk a dovish turn in that kind of environment? That really would be a surprise.
end
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE
India Swaps Russian Crude For Saudi Oil As Discount Dwindles
India’s October imports of Russian crude oil were down 4% compared to the previous month, with increased imports from Saudi Arabia. According to IBC, citing Vortexa cargo data, India imported 1.55 million barrels per day of Russian crude in October, compared to 1.62 million bpd in September.
The drop in October reflects a dwindling discount for Russian crude, which is frequently selling above the G7-imposed price cap of $60 per barrel, despite buying restrictions.
The fall in India’s Russian crude imports for October was balanced out by an increase in imports of Saudi oil. India took in 924,000 bpd of Saudi crude in October, compared to 523,000 bpd in September, IBC reported, citing Vortexa data.
India’s crude oil imports from Russia fell by more than 4 percent in October compared to September, according to figures compiled by energy cargo tracker Vortexa.
Total crude oil imports by India reached 4.56 million bpd in October.
India is the third-largest importer of oil in the world.
If the price is right, India has also said it would consider importing Venezuelan oil following an easing of U.S. sanctions.
“It is always good when more supplies come to market,” Reuters cited Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri as saying at an industry event, adding, “We will buy from wherever we can get cheaper oil.”
On October 18, the U.S. Department of the Treasury lifted most sanctions on Venezuelan oil for a period of six months. Venezuela oil is heavy, sour crude, which has been in short supply. Despite the lifting of sanctions, the Energy Information Administration notes that due to “years of underinvestment and mismanagement”, Venezuela will “likely limit crude oil production growth to less than 200,000 barrels per day (b/d) by the end of 2024”.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
ARGENTINA/GAS PRICES
Lack of gasoline in Argentina. It jumps 10% in one day
(zerohedge)
Argentina Gas Prices Jump 10% In One Day Historic Amid Fuel Shortage
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 06:00 PM
In a world where some commentators speculate that there is a glut of energy and distillate products as a result of high oil prices, sliding China demand and a looming global recession, Argentina will take the under: as La Nacion reports, on Wednesday refiners and retailers hiked prices between 7.6% and 9.6%, amid what is shaping up as a historic energy crisis.
In recent days Argentina has been rocked by an unprecedented shortage of gasoline, with drivers running the gauntlet to find scarce supplies of gas to fill their tanks amid what Reuters has called “the most acute fuel shortage in years”, which has left many filling stations out of supply and long lines at any pumps still operating.
The South American country, which is a major shale oil and gas producer, has suffered shortages of petrol and diesel since late last week because of domestic refining problems and as a lack of dollars has delayed imports.
Scenes reminiscent of Venezuela in recent years have surfaced across Argentina recently, with cars around the block attempting to fuel up at stations. Jorge Ferro, a 42-year-old consultant in Buenos Aires, tried to fill up his tank last week at an Axion gas station in the wealthy Recoleta neighborhood, but attendants told him they were out of “super” and could only offer 4,000 pesos ($11) of premium gasoline.
“When I told them I was going to go to another station, he told me that all the nearby gas stations were closed,” Ferro said.
Election uncertainty is another big driver behind commuters’ headache. Before the Oct. 22 general election, some gas stations suspended sales as customers tried to stock up on gas, fearing a sharp currency devaluation that looks delayed for now. Economy Minister Sergio Massa faces off against outsider candidate Javier Milei in the definitive runoff vote on Nov. 19. Even after the vote, some stations say they’re entirely tapped out.
Translation:
Salta without gasoline, Salta residents in search of gasoline in the city of Salta. The lack of gasoline supply is felt again Wednesday afternoon, at this time, gas stations from all brands don’t have gasoline
Meanwhile, Argentina’s acute dollar scarcity is leaving YPF unable to pay for gas imports for now. The retained cargo has a volume of 120,000 cubic meters, which represents 7% of monthly gasoline sales in the country, or about $150 million, one person said. Argentina doesn’t have access to international capital and is struggling to comply with a $44 billion agreement with the International Monetary Fund, its only major source of financing.
That has sparked anger at the government ahead of a second-round presidential election runoff next month between the ruling Peronist coalition’s economy chief Sergio Massa, seen as the front-runner, and radical libertarian Javier Milei.
“The truth is that I work with the car and it’s like looking for water in the desert,” said 38-year-old Cabify driver Raul Paretto. “It is distressing because you don’t know on a day-to-day basis what can happen; we are living one day at a time.”
Around the capital Buenos Aires, Reuters reporters said that they saw empty filling stations with signs saying no more petrol. In other places, long queues formed and some rationed sales. There were, however, some signs of things starting to improve. “Today they sold me only super, though there was no premium,” said self-employed worker Leonardo Villa with his car. “But, well, yesterday there was none anywhere, the day before neither. At least today I was able to fill up.”
Furthermore, on Saturday Argentina’s oil and gas producers said in a joint statement that the fuel shortages will “normalize” in the next few days. Argentina said last week it would import 10 tanker fuel ships shipments in coming days to address shortages after a spike in demand, as well as increase refining capacity.
Alas, judging by today’s striking surge in prices, any improvement or normalization were at best illusory.
The crisis has gotten so bad that Economy Minister and presidential candidate Sergio Massa warned on Sunday that Argentina’s oil producers will be barred from exports unless they increase fuel supplies to address shortages in the country,
“If the fuel supply is not resolved by midnight on Tuesday, companies will not be able to send out export ships starting on Wednesday,” Massa told reporters in Tucuman province. “Argentines’ oil belongs first to Argentines.”
Massa added that some companies were holding onto fuel supplies on bets the government would devalue the official exchange rate after last week’s presidential elections.
In Argentina’s farmlands, producers said a shortage of diesel showed signs of abating too, key for the start of the planting season of soy and late season corn, the country’s main cash crops.
“It is not completely normalized but there is a little more supply,” Jorge Chemes, the head of the Argentine Rural Confederations (CRA), told Reuters on Monday.
Oil executives cited planned halts at local refineries, which provide 80% of domestic supply, and the country’s scarce foreign currency reserves that have held up imports. “It’s not a problem of lack of crude oil, the problem is that there’s no more processing capacity with the refineries we have in Argentina,” one industry source told Reuters. Come to think of it, the US has a similar problem too.
“On top of that, you need dollars to pay for imports and the central bank does not have them. And even when they do import, the refining companies make a loss selling at the pump below the price they are buying,” the source said.
But when one strips away all the rhetoric, there is a simple reason behind the country’s crisis, the same one behind almost every other crisis: government intervention. You see, in its infinite brilliance, the Argentina’s government has fixed a local oil price at $56 per barrel, far below the international price around $86 to try to calm local inflation of nearly 140%. Not only does that skews the economics for firms importing product from overseas, but it creates instant shortages, because one can have “cheap” gas and suffer historic shortages, or one can allow prices to clear through the market… and risk a popular revolt.
Finding themselves between a rock and a hard place, Argentina’s largest fuel producers and refiners said in a joint statement on Monday they had presented a plan to the government to bring gas stations back up to full supply and to boost stocks.
“We will use all methods possible to accelerate the unloading of ships with imported fuel, which, like every year, supplements local production,” they said.
Local unions backed Massa’s position and threatened a strike from Wednesday unless the domestic situation was resolved. They said crude production was at a record and the oil companies were being “opportunistic and petty.”
Because once again – and just like in the US – the government’s incompetence is the oil companies fault..
end
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0653 UP 0.0066
USA/ YEN 150.22 DOWN .358 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2216 UP 0.0035
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3806 DOWN .0029 (CDN DOLLAR UP 29 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 13.67 PTS OR 0.75%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 128.81 PTS OR 0.75%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.00% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 10.70 PTS OR 0.06%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.67 PTS OR 0.75%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.00%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 348.24 PTS OR 1.10%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1987,60
silver:$22.96
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 105.84 DOWN 88 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.3150
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.3267)
TURKISH LIRA: 28.35 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.913…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 14 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.650% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.818 DOWN 16 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.962 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 66.43 POINTS or 1.67%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 220.33 PTS OR 1.48%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 128.06 PTS OR 1.85%
Spain IBEX UP 185.40 PTS OR 2.04%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 493.95 PTS OR 1.76%
WTI Oil price 82.69 12: EST
Brent Oil: 86.91 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 93.09; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 36//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.707 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.4035DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0624 UP 0.0038 OR 38 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2206 UP .0025 or 25 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.4141% DOWN 11 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .916%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 150.46 DOWN 0.108 //YEN UP 11 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3750 DOWN .85 CDN dollar UP 85 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 82.49
Brent OIL: 86.78
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 12 BASIS pts to 4.620%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 16 BASIS PTS to 4.818%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 1 PTS AT 4.977 %
USA dollar index: 105.98 DOWN 73 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.36 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 93.35 DOWN 0 AND 61/100 roubles
GOLD 1985.20
SILVER: 22.71
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 564.50 PTS OR 1,70%
NASDAQ UP 254.64 PTS OR 1.74%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.65 DOWN 1,22 PTS (7.23)%
GLD: $184.12 UP 0.61 OR 0.33%
SLV/ $20.87 DOWN .10 OR 0.48%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Face-Ripping’ Squeeze Sends Stocks Soaring As Yield Curve & The Dollar Dump
THURSDAY, NOV 02, 2023 – 04:00 PM
Goldilocks or gouging shorts…
Strong Factory Orders, a tumble in Unit Labor Costs (and stronger productivity), Initial Claims in line (but Continuing Claims at six-month highs) – all indicate, as Goldman’s Chris Hussey notes, that the labor market is healing well, and illustrating how a key driver of inflation (wages) is likely well on a path towards normalization… which, along with the Treasury Refunding ‘good’ news, crashed the yield curve (as the long-end dramatically outperformed)…
Source: Bloomberg
The 2Y yield was actually higher on the day (2Y +4bps, 30Y -10bps), but still notably lower since the Treasury Refunding ‘good’ news (2Y -10bps, 30Y -28bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
The 10Y and 30Y pushed on below 5% as the 2Y yield moved back up towards 5%…(NOTE – the 20Y yield is the only part of the curve that remains above- very marginally – 5.00%)…
Source: Bloomberg
But, none of that mattered for stocks as the squeeze was in, sending everything soaring – especially the most-shorted and longest-duration as yields also plunged.
A ‘face-ripper’ of a rally in the most-shorted stocks – the biggest squeeze since February… (that is an 8% rally from the FOMC statement yesterday)
Source: Bloomberg
…smashed the Nasdaq up 4% from the Treasury Refunding. Small Caps and the S&P are up almost 3.5% and The Dow up over 2.5%…
Nasdaq is up 5 days in a row on pace for its best week since Nov 2022.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 extended their gains today back above the 200DMAs. The Dow’s gains took it perfectly to its 200DMA and the Russell 2000 remains well below it…
An odd mix of everything in sectors with lower yields snapping Utes and Real Estate higher along with Tech and Discretionary…
Source: Bloomberg
Banks (large and small) surged on the day…
…as Bill Gross called the bottom in regional banks and sent tehm upo almost 6% (but still back to SVB spike lows only)…
No individual stock better sums up today’s equity market than PTON, which crashed over 15% in the pre-market only to explode higher to be up more than 15% on the day…
VIX was clubbed like a baby seal back down to a 15 handle…
Before we leave equity-land, it is worth noting that 0-DTE traders aggressively fought the squeeze higher today…
The dollar extended yesterday’s plunge (biggest daily drop since Sept 11th), on pace for its biggest weekly drop since July…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin tested up towards $36,000 overnight but slid lower on the day, finding support at $34,500…
Source: Bloomberg
Despite the dollar’s dive, gold only managed modest gains on the day…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude prices rebounded today with WTI finding support around $80 and bouncing back up to pre-Israel levels…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, just as we warned yesterday, Powell’s press conference was just a little too ‘dovish’ (or non-hawkish) and has triggered a buying-panic in bonds and stocks and credit (spreads compressed). What does that all mean – financial conditions have started to ease significantly…
Source: Bloomberg
…so the market has reflexively reacted to Powell’s appreciation of its “tightening financial conditions” by easing financial conditions… forcing Powell and his pals back into hawkish mode (and around we go).
EARLY MORNING TRADING/
end
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON/
TUCKER CARLSON
II USA DATA
US Factory Orders Soared Most Since COVID Rebound In August
THURSDAY, NOV 02, 2023 – 10:13 AM
Following July’s 2.1% MoM, plunge, US Factory orders have rebounded dramatically, up 1.0% MoM in August and as the Census Bureau just reported, up an impressive 2.8% MoM in September (considerably more than the 2.3% expected).
Source: Bloomberg
That is the biggest MoM rise since July 2020., and lifts orders up 3.0% YoY, the biggest jump since January 2023.
Transports clearly helped the headline as ex-transports rose just 0.8% MoM (as expected), with YoY orders basically unchanged YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
For once, it was not war spending that helped as non-defense capital goods orders rose 18.5% (defense dropped 14.4% MoM)…
Source: Bloomberg
Aircraft engine and parts orders soared 62.3% MoM. (non-defense aircraft +92.5%, defense aircraft -15.2%)
Imagine how much that will be juiced in October when the Israel spending starts…
Initial Claims Jump As Continuing Claims Unexpectedly Surge To 6 Month High
THURSDAY, NOV 02, 2023 – 09:09 AM
After that bizarre, “Ohio-driven” slump in initial claims in the late summer, the trend is once higher and the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose to a two month high of 217K, up from 212K, and above the 210K expected.
The Ohio initial claims ‘Fraud’ which many economists blamed for the early summer spike has been erased completely and claims from that state are again near record lows.
While initial claims resumed its climb, if still at deeply depressed levels, continuing claims was more ominous, and accelerated again, rising above 1.800 million for the first time since April, or 1,818 million to be precise (up sharply from 1.783 million), and well above expectations of an 1.818 million print.
With regard to continuing claims, Goldman reminds us that ongoing seasonal distortions have increasingly weighed on the level of continuing claims over the last six months, and we now expect that the reversal of those distortions could exert a cumulative boost of 375k to the level of continuing claims between now and March.
Following July’s 2.1% MoM, plunge, US Factory orders have rebounded dramatically, up 1.0% MoM in August and as the Census Bureau just reported, up an impressive 2.8% MoM in September (considerably more than the 2.3% expected).
Source: Bloomberg
end
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
CALIFORNIA
Another budget crisis coming in California
(zerohedge)
California’s Budget Crisis: Tax Revenue Outlook Slashed After Stock Market Slump Dents State Revenues
WEDNESDAY, NOV 01, 2023 – 10:00 PM
California is in a bit of a pickle after tax revenues for October vastly underperformed estimates, Bloomberg reports.
As of Oct. 25, just $18 billion had been collected for the month – significantly lower than the $42 billion that had been projected, according to an update by the state’s Department of Finance late Friday. The shortfall is being attributed to the recent stock market slump and slowing wage growth, as the state’s collections are highly dependent on capital gains and personal income tax revenue.
Nearly half of California’s tax collections come from residents in the top 1% of income earnings, Bloomberg further notes.
It’s unclear how the budget outlook will impact the state’s bond sales, according to H.D. Palmer, deputy director for external affairs for the California DOF. The state has “never missed a schedule bond payment to a note holder,” he said in an interview Monday.
The state expected to receive $28 billion from personal income taxes and $14 billion from corporate taxes in October, but, income taxes have thus far yielded only $11.8 billion while corporate taxes have produced $6.2 billion through Oct. 25. -Bloomberg
We would also point out that California had a net loss of 342,000 residents in 2022, many of whom have cited high taxes as one of their reasons for moving.
Further analysis paints a bleak picture for fiscal year 2022-2023, as the state had optimistically forecast a robust $198 billion from its top three tax revenue sources in May 2023. However, current trends suggest that the final number will be a far cry from this figure.
There may be somewhat of a silver lining, as the state’s Budgetary Stabilization Fund can act as a financial cushion, offering some degree of flexibility in times of such crises. As per bond documents, California boasts a healthy $37.8 billion in total budgetary reserves.
But this buffer might not be enough. The looming shadow of a forecasted budget deficit, which is expected to be at least $14 billion in the next cycle, could potentially grow even bigger. This could force the state’s hand into making some challenging decisions, including budget cuts and tapping into its rainy-day funds.
Meanwhile, a seven-month extension for income tax filing, granted to those affected by this year’s severe winter storms, has further muddied the waters – meaning that the full extent of the revenue collections will remain unknown until November due to these unexpected delays.
That said, according to Palmer “We still have several more days,” but “most folks, it’s fair to say, filed their taxes.”
END
USA//BORDER/
Huge caravan coming and you can bet many terrorists are situated among them
(zerohedge)
“Not A Crisis. It’s An Invasion”: Massive Migrant Caravan Prepares To Storm US Border
THURSDAY, NOV 02, 2023 – 07:25 AM
While everyone is laser-focused on World War III threats across the Middle East, President Biden’s border crisis is only worsening as a new migrant caravan departed from southern Mexico on Monday and is headed north to the US southern border.
According to Reuters, 5,000 migrants from Cuba, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, and Venezuela are on foot near the city of Tapachula near the Guatemalan border.
One of the caravan’s organizers, Irineo Mujica, told Reuters that civil protection officials and ambulances are escorting the migrants.
Mujica said the migrants departed from Tapachula over their inability to secure humanitarian visas. He added that some migrants had asked local authorities to help with recovery efforts in the hurricane-stricken port of Acapulco in trade for visas. Authorities responded with “No.”
Videos are flooding ‘free speech’ platform X, showing the massive migrant caravan.
Elon Musk commented on one of the videos with a “Wow.”
Fox News published new US Border Patrol data which reveals President Biden’s disastrous open border policies have led to the release of 900,000 illegal immigrants into the interior US this year, including 150,000 in September alone. This offers new insight into the invasion the Biden administration allowed at the southern border (remember this?).
The migrant invasion comes as the US military-industrial complex is funding two wars, one in Eastern Europe and the other in the Middle East.
One major worry is that some migrants from countries associated with terrorism have flooded the US. There has been no vetting of these folks, and no understanding, if any, have been radicalized – this is a huge national security threat.
“People approved for walkovers include individuals from Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, with some of the largest numbers coming from Muslim-majority former Soviet republics such as Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan,” the NYPost said.
It’s very evident the radicals in the White House are allowing people from terror countries into the country.
Days ago, former UK politician Nigel Farage spoke with Tucker Carlson about how migrants flooding the Western world from current conflicts are posing national security threats.
Meanwhile, major Democrat cities, such as New York, are imploding after receiving more than 100,000 migrants this year. Some city streets have been transformed into a third-world-like state, and Mayor Eric Adams recently warned the city’s immigration crisis could “break the bank.”
On Tuesday, Fox News’ Peter Doocy pressed National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on the increased terror threat to Americans.
Doocy asked Kirby whether there was a possibility that a migrant could carry out a terror attack in the US since the southern border has been wide open.
Kirby responded: “I couldn’t possibly answer that question, Peter. All I can do is tell you that we have remained vigilant to that potential threat.”
The federal government’s lack of intervention on the southern border is a telling sign they don’t have the interest of the vast majority. At the same time, they’re mysteriously catering to a fringe minority that promotes open borders. And this is all before the 2024 presidential election cycle. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure this one out.
END
Man, is she a total nutcase!
(EpochTimes)
White House Announces ‘National Strategy To Counter Islamophobia’ As Antisemitism Soars
The Biden administration is set to develop the “National Strategy to Counter Islamophobia,” the first of its kind, Vice President Kamala Harris announced Wednesday.
“The strategy will be a comprehensive and detailed plan to protect Muslims and those perceived to be Muslim from hate, bigotry, and violence,” Vice President Harris said in a video address.
“And to address the concern that some government policies may discriminate against Muslims.”
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement that the strategy will be led by the Domestic Policy Council and the National Security Council, and the White House will work with community leaders, advocates, members of Congress, and more, to develop the strategy.
“For too long, Muslims in America, and those perceived to be Muslim, such as Arabs and Sikhs, have endured a disproportionate number of hate-fueled attacks and other discriminatory incidents,” Ms. Jean-Pierre said.
“We all mourn the recent barbaric killing of Wadea Al-Fayoume, a 6-year-old Palestinian American Muslim boy, and the brutal attack on his mother in their home outside Chicago,” she said, referring to the fatal stabbing that took place on Oct. 14.
The Department of Justice is investigating the attack as a hate crime. The suspect, Joseph Czuba, pleaded not guilty on Monday to charges of murder, attempted murder, and hate crimes.
Ms. Jean-Pierre said that the latest strategy is “part of President Biden’s directive last year to establish an interagency group to increase and better coordinate U.S. Government efforts to counter Islamophobia, Antisemitism, and related forms of bias and discrimination within the United States.”
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre speaks during the daily briefing in the Brady Briefing Room of the White House in Washington, on Oct. 31, 2023. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)
“Moving forward, the President, Vice President, and our entire Administration will continue working to ensure every American has the freedom to live their lives in safety and without fear for how they pray, what they believe, and who they are.”
Earlier this year, in May, the Biden administration created the first-ever “National Strategy to Combat Antisemitism.”
The administration described the plan as the “most ambitious and comprehensive U.S. government-led effort to fight antisemitism in American history.”
Civil Rights Act Expanded
The administration in September expanded the scope of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to prohibit antisemitism and Islamophobia in federally-funded programs.
The administration’s latest announcement to “counter the scourge of Islamophobia and hate in all its forms” comes amid an ongoing war between Israel and the Hamas terrorist group.
The war began on Oct. 7, when Hamas terrorists mounted an unprecedented attack on civilians in Israel that killed 1,400 people in the worst attack on the country in decades. Hamas is an Iran-backed Islamist terrorist group that controls the Gaza Strip.
Vice President Harris said in her address:
“For years, Muslims in America and those perceived to be Muslim have endured a disproportionate number of hate-fueled attacks.
“As a result of the Hamas terrorist attack in Israel, and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, we have seen an uptick in anti-Palestinian, anti-Arab, Antisemitic, and Islamophobic incidents across America … For so many people in our nation, the past few days and weeks have brought about all too familiar fears. Fears that they will be targeted, profiled, or attacked simply because of who they are, how they worship, or how they look.”
“Here’s the bottom line: In America, no one should be made to fight hate alone. And in this moment, then, let us all clearly say: A harm against any one of us is a harm against all of us,” she added.
FBI Director Christopher Wray on Tuesday told members of Congress that the Hamas–Israel war could spark attacks on targets within the United States.
Separately, on Monday, a White House official stated that the Department of Justice and Department of Homeland Security have been assisting campus police departments and local and state law enforcement to respond to an uptick in anti-Semitism on college and university campuses.
The Department of Education has “expedited its update of the intake process for discrimination complaints under Title VI of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, to specifically state that certain forms of Antisemitism and Islamophobia are prohibited by this law,” the official said.
COURTESY DAILY MONEY
special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us: another train wreck coming in the EV market
EV Sales Slump: Why Americans Are Not Buying Electric Cars | Money
Robert H
“If consumers reject EV vehicles then this whole craze towards battery operated cars will end up as a financial disaster of immense proportions.”
EV Sales Are in a Slump — Why Aren’t More Car Buyers Going Electric?
The EV revolution is losing momentum: After electric car sales soared in 2022, interest among buyers has underwhelmed and plans for a rapid transition away from gas-powered cars could be in jeopardy.
While the EV market has grown in 2023, sales aren’t rising as fast as expected, even with new model launches and price cuts and generous tax credits lowering costs for buyers. Automakers are taking notice and acting accordingly.
In just the last few weeks, EV leader Tesla slashed its prices once again; Ford reduced production of its F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck and postponed $12 billion of EV spending; Mercedes-Benz CFO Harald Wilhelm described the EV market as a “brutal space” as the company continues to discount vehicles; General Motors delayed three model launches and backed off a public goal of producing 400,000 EVs by the middle of next year; and Honda announced it was ending plans with GM to jointly develop affordable EVs.
Over at Toyota, which has prioritized hybrids over EVs, Chairman Akio Toyoda told reporters that “people are finally seeing reality.” Despite EV tax credits of up to $7,500, fewer Americans are ready to switch to EVs than automakers or government officials thought.
Automakers losing money on EVs
In the U.S., the days’ supply for new EVs has doubled since last year to 88 days, meaning that’s how long it would take for the current inventory of vehicles to sell at the current sales rate, Pat Ryan, CEO of AI car shopping app CoPilot, told Money. For reference, the average days’ supply for gas-powered cars is 59 days, which is basically normal by historic standards.
“Traditional automakers overestimated the current demand levels for EVs and are building more vehicles than they currently need,” Ryan said. “At the same time, the traditional automakers are losing money as they venture into EVs.”
Automakers are being forced to lower their EV prices to attract customers and compete with Tesla. But this approach is especially painful because they’re already losing money on their EV investments. Ford, for example, lost about $36,000 for every EV it sold last quarter.
According to Cox Automotive, automakers have plans for 150 new electric models between 2023 and 2026, but those goals are complicated by lower-than-expected demand and the tough price environment.
As EV technology improves, Jessica Stafford, senior vice president consumer solutions at Cox, expects the fuel savings and environmental benefits to motivate Americans to buy them.
“It may appear that the EV revolution is slowing down, but our data doesn’t corroborate that,” she says, noting that EV sales have increased 12 quarters in a row. “Automakers are not stalling on EVs, but instead, adjusting to a pace that is more sustainable for efficient growth without over-saturating the market.”
Why Americans aren’t buying electric cars
Electric vehicles used to be in hot demand because supply was limited and early adopters were eager to try the new tech or shift to more environmentally-friendly transportation. These enthusiasts were often willing to pay luxury prices for their EVs.
But for automakers to capture the mass market, EVs have to outcompete gas-powered on cost and quality. When gas prices are high, it makes more sense for buyers to consider switching to an electric car. Gas prices have been fairly low in 2023 — they’re currently down around 30 cents per gallon compared to a year ago, on average nationally — so there’s less incentive to go electric.
According to experts, here are some of the big reasons the demand for EVs isn’t as high as some want it to be:
EVs are too expensive: Joseph McCabe, president of AutoForecast Solutions, says vehicle cost is the No. 1 barrier to EV adoption. EVs usually cost at least $10,000 more than their comparable gas counterparts, he says.
Charging is expensive: If you can charge your EV at home, there are considerable fuel savings that come with going electric: You’d spend about 3x more on gas than the cost of home charging. However, the costs are about the same if you’re using a public charger, and getting fuel at a gas station is much more reliable and less time-consuming.
Charging is inconvenient: Fast chargers are still hard to find in many more remote parts of the country. According to AAA, 56% of people say the lack of convenient charging is a top reason for not going electric.
Depreciation: The average used EV price dropped nearly 20% in the past year, according to iSeeCars.com. Potential EV buyers have good reason to worry their cars won’t hold their value well as the technology improves. “The used market is not as strong for electric vehicles, and as a result the depreciation is higher,” says Greg Brannon, director of automotive engineering research at AAA. “That’s your single biggest operating expense.”
Range anxiety: Some high-end EVs promise 300+ miles of range on a single charge, but even that is not enough to cover a common drive like San Francisco to Los Angeles. You’d have to take a charging break, potentially adding 30 minutes or an hour to an already long drive.
Hybrids are more popular: According to Adam Ragozzino, principal analyst, batteries and electric powertrains at Wards Intelligence, Tesla isn’t the best-selling electrified vehicle brand in the U.S. It’s Toyota, which has over 20 hybrid models and is focused on these cars in the near term, given that they offer good fuel efficiency and are capable of making long trips without requiring charging breaks. Hybrids are not only more practical and familiar to drivers than EVs, they also tend to be cheaper.
What’s next for EVs
Auto experts are increasingly skeptical that the U.S. will be able meet a 2032 target essentially requiring 67% of new cars to be EVs. Right now, the current EV market share in the U.S. is just 7.9%, according to Cox. Automakers are already adjusting their own goals, and it’s possible that more EV model launches will be delayed in the coming months.
Ragozzino says the government’s goals won’t be possible unless automakers make major progress on charging infrastructure and bringing down production costs to the point where they can price their EVs on par with gas and hybrid cars.
Ryan agrees that automakers can’t justify scaling up their production with the levels of demand among buyers today.
“Moving forward, it will remain very challenging for the traditional automakers to make meaningful inroads on their EV commitments,” he says.
Newsletter
Daily Money
end
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
end
USA// COVID//VACCINE/
end
SWAMP STORIES
This ought to scare the pants off everybody! Explosives found on illegal immigrants
(Ozimek/EpochTimes)
“Tailor-Made For Terrorism”: Republicans Raise Alarm After Illegal Immigrants Caught With Explosive Devices
Republican senators have sounded the alarm on the Biden administration’s border policies after Border Patrol agents caught illegal border crossers who were carrying explosive devices that Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) said were “tailor-made for terrorism.”
Mr. Barrasso, who is the Senate Republican Conference Chairman, made the startling revelation at a press conference on Oct. 31, alongside Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), and Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), following their recent visit to the U.S.–Mexico border.
The senators said that over 8 million illegal border crossings have taken place under President Joe Biden’s watch, while asserting that explosive devices found on some border crossers in recent days represent an elevated risk of terror acts against the homeland.
“We have just returned from our southern border, and it is painfully clear that with Joe Biden’s open border policy, our country is really at an increased threat for a terrorist attack,” Mr. Barrasso said at Tuesday’s press conference.
Several days ago, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents seized illegal immigrants carrying with them improvised explosive devices that Mr. Barrasso said were the “size of cannonballs” and were “tailor-made for terrorism.”
Speaking at the press conference, Mr. Ricketts said that, due to what he said were President Biden’s “failed” border policies, there were 18 people on the terrorist watchlist caught entering the United States illegally in September—and 172 last year.
“To put this in perspective, in years past, that number was single digits,” Mr. Ricketts said.
“We’re opening ourselves up for a terrorist attack.”
Terror Threat Rises
An elevated terror threat against the United States and its citizens has also been flagged by FBI Director Christopher Wray, who issued a stark warning while testifying before Congress on Oct. 31.
Mr. Wray told lawmakers that, since the Oct. 7 attack by the Hamas terror group against Israeli civilians and soldiers, there have been multiple foreign terrorist organizations calling for attacks against Americans and the West, significantly raising the threat posed by what he described as “homegrown extremists.”
“The actions of Hamas and its allies will serve as an inspiration the likes of which we haven’t seen since ISIS launched its so-called caliphate several years ago,” Mr. Wray said, referring to the terrorist organization that captured swathes of Iraq and Syria about a decade ago before the United States deployed troops in the region to battle the group.
But the terror threat has been on the rise for some time. Earlier this year, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) issued a terror alert, saying that the United States is in a “heightened threat environment,” citing in part individuals with links to foreign terrorist organizations who may target schools, government facilities, or critical infrastructure.
In September, over 269,000 people were caught crossing the U.S.–Mexico border illegally, a record high for a single month.
Mr. Barrasso said that the number of illegal border crossings has “gotten so bad that Homeland Security has raised the terror threat because so many people are coming in illegally and there are so many gotaways—people that run and hide in an effort to not be detected.”
There have been 1.7 million “gotaways” since President Biden assumed office, according to the House Committee on Homeland Security.
Gotaways In Focus
DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, who testified alongside Mr. Wray on Capitol Hill, told lawmakers that over 600,000 illegal immigrants evaded capture during the 2023 fiscal year, although he argued that “the phenomenon of gotaways is something that has been a challenge for the Department of Homeland Security for decades.”
“In fact, it is a powerful example of a broken immigration system,” he added.
But Mr. Ricketts argued that the blame lies squarely on the shoulders of the Biden administration.
“Joe Biden has created this crisis,” he said.
Speaking at the press conference, Mr. Cornyn said that a key problem is that the Biden administration doesn’t know who the gotaways are, yet they likely “have a good reason for running away from law enforcement.”
Mr. Ricketts said the “single biggest thing” that the president could do is restore the Trump-era “Remain in Mexico” policy.
“You would have consequences for coming here illegally and you would end the waves of people coming here,” he said.
The Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP), dubbed the “Remain in Mexico” program, was a Trump-era policy under which asylum-seekers were made to wait in Mexico for their U.S. court hearings.
The White House did not respond to requests for comment on statements blaming the president for the border crisis.
In response to the latest illegal immigration data from September, CBP said that it has deployed more resources and will “remain vigilant.”
“CBP will continue to remain vigilant, making operational adjustments as necessary and enforcing consequences under U.S. immigration law,” CPB official Troy Miller said, adding that President Joe Biden’s supplemental funding request includes money for “critically needed” additional resources to help with the border crisis.
President Biden on Oct. 20 called on Congress to approve another $105 billion in funding, with the bulk going to bolster U.S. support for Israel and Ukraine as they fight separate wars.
end(Watson/summit news)
Rand Paul: Biden “Bluffing” In Threat To Veto House Bill On Israel Aid
GOP Senator Rand Paul declared Wednesday that Joe Biden’s vow to veto a House bill to strip funding from the IRS and redirect it to Israel is a complete bluff.
While the GOP wants a standalone $14.3 billion package for Israel, the Democrats want to combine that funding into a mammoth spending bill tied to Ukraine aid and spending on the Southern border.
Biden claimed that the GOP proposal, which would cut the same amount in IRS funding that was included in the much maligned Inflation Reduction Act, “inserts partisanship into support for Israel.”
[ZH: The House just voted to advance a bill to provide supplemental funding to Israel amid its war with the Hamas and Hezbollah terror groups, with all 203 Democrats voting in opposition.
The supplemental funding advanced 213–203, a possible indicator of what the tally will be upon expected passage in the afternoon of Nov. 2.
The measure allocates the $14.3 billion requested by the Biden administration, but offsets that amount with the same number in cuts to IRS funding under the Inflation Reduction Act—a nonstarter for Democrats.]
Appearing on “Fox and Friends,” Paul noted “I think President Biden’s bluffing. I don’t think he’ll veto aid to Israel.”
“You really think he’s going to stand up in front of the world and say, ‘Oh, we’re not sending aid to Israel just because it’s paid for’?” Paul added.
Paul said that redirecting spending from elsewhere rather than adding to the deficit is “the conservative thing to do.”
“Friend or foe, whoever we’re giving the money to, it ought to be paid for because our national debt is threatening our national security. Can we give Israel some money? Yeah, but it ought to be paid for. It ought to be paid for by taking it away from something that is harmful to our economy, and that’s more IRS agents,” Paul said, adding “So I think this is a win-win if we get it done.”
The Senator continued, “I think McConnell, Biden and Schumer are going to lose on this ultimately, or if they forced their way, they could potentially topple the Speaker of the House, which I think is a terrible idea.”
Paul added “I think there may be trying to bundle together other parts of aid. But I’ll insist the same, whether it’s Ukraine or Israel that it’s paid for. And so there’s $44 billion in our money. I’m more than happy to rescind all of that if necessary.”
end
THE KING REPORT
The King Report November 2, 2023 Issue 7110
Independent View of the News
Reuters: The BoJ said on Wednesday it would conduct an unscheduled bond operation, offering to buy 100 billion yen ($661.1 million) of bonds with maturities of 3 to 5 years and 300 billion yen of bonds with maturities of 5 to 10 years on Thursday.
To game, AKA manipulate, the big US Treasury Auction next Wednesday, the US Treasury announced hours before the auction that it would decrease the amount of debt sales – despite larger deficit spending!
The US Treasury said it would sell $112 billion of longer-term debt at its quarterly refunding auctions next week. $114 billion was expected. Note: We erroneously reported that the Treasury Auction would occur yesterday. The announcement of the size of the auction occurred yesterday.
BBG’s @lisaabramowicz1: US Treasury officials may not be gaming the market, but they are listening to it. That’s one of the biggest takeaways from today’s refunding announcement, in which the Treasury refrained from boosting long-term bond sales as much as markets expected.
The 30-year yield declined 15bps; USZs rallied as much as 1 12/32 on the US Treasury’s manipulation. USZs hit a low of 108 19/32 at 20:17 ET. They hit a high of 110 26/32 (rabid short covering) at 10:44 ET. USZs slid to 100 5/32 at 12:46 ET and then rallied into the 14:00 ET FOMC Communique release.
US Job Openings Unexpectedly Rise a Second Month to 9.6 Million (9.4m expected)Increase in September vacancies was driven by leisure sectorQuits rate held steady at 2.3%, lowest since the start of 2021US job openings unexpectedly climbed in September for a second month, underscoring the persistent strength of labor demand in various pockets of the economy… https://t.co/V0nIG9jqUW
The ADP Employment Change for October is 113k. 115k was consensus. Education & Health Services +45k; Leisure & Hospitality +17k https://adpemploymentreport.com/
The S&P Global US Mfg. PMI for October was the expected and prior 50.0. However, the ISM Mfg. for October declined to 46.7 from 49.0, which was also expected. Prices Paid increased to 45.1 from 43.8; 45 was expected; Employment fell to 46.8 from 51.2; 50.6 was consensus. New Orders dropped to 45.5 from 49.2; 49.8 was expected.
@WSJopinion: President Biden now wants Congress to help allies win two wars abroad, and deter a third over Taiwan, yet he wants to continue spending on everything as if nothing in the world has changed. He won’t be able to do both.
ESZs declined from the Nikkei opening until they hit a daily low of 4191.25 at 749 ET. They then soared to 4248.50 at 10:44 ET. Start-of-November buying, pattern buying for the FOMC Communique, and the Treasury’s verbal manipulation of the bond market were the rally catalysts.
ESZs then declined to 4222.75 at 12:43 ET. ESZs then went inert ahead of the FOMC Communique.
As expected, the Fed kept rates unchanged (5.25% – 5.5%); USZs and ESZs rallied.
FOMC Communique HighlightsVote was 12-0 to keep rates unchangedWill assess extent of additional policy firmingTighter financial, credit conditions to weigh on economyJob gains moderated since early ’23 but remain strongEconomic activity expanded at ‘strong pace’ in Q3Inflation still elevated, very attentive to risksWill continue to assess additional informationWill continue same pace of reducing Treasury, MBS holdingsHigher long-term rates likely to weigh on economic activityhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20231101a.htm
@RealEJAntoni: Powell & Co. don’t care about bringing inflation down to 2%. They don’t care about inflation expectations. The financial system is not strong and resilient. Powell & Co. will continue creating as much inflation as they think they can get away w/ to serve their political masters.
USZs and ESZs quickly rescinded their spike rallies on the communique’s release. Both went inert, as traders pondered what Powell would say at 14:30 ET. ESZs rallied into Powell’s press conference; USZs declined a tad.
Powell Press Conference HighlightsRemain strongly committed to bringing inflation down to 2% goalWithout price stability, the economy doesn’t work for anyoneStance of policy is restrictive; full effects of tightening have yet to be feltThe committee is proceeding carefullyThe totality of data will dictate future policyEconomy is expanding at strong pace and above expectations, due to surge in consumer spendingHigher mortgage rates weigh on housing; higher interest rates weigh on business investmentThe process of getting inflation down to 2% has a long way to goLabor demand still exceeds the supply of available workersWill consider the lags of monetary policy (The Fed didn’t when easing!)Reducing inflation will require softening in labor market Powell Q&A HighlightsNot confident we’ve reached stance for 2% inflationThe Fed is attentive to increase in long-term yieldsHigher long-term rates can’t be a reflection of higher policy rates from us.FOMC has not yet made a rate decision for the December meetingThe idea that it would be difficult to raise rates after stopping is just not right.The US economy has been ‘surprisingly in its resilience.’ (If you ignore wanton fiscal policy)The committee isn’t thinking or talking about rate cuts. We are asking if we should hike.Dot plot is a picture in time. The efficacy of DOT plot decays during intermeeting periodWith $3.3T of reserves, can’t make the case that they are scarce. (Our point for months!)Not mulling changes to QTNot clear if Middle East conflict will impact US economy (McConnell sees it as a boost.)
After hitting 4247.50 at 14:35 ET, ESZs sank to 4221.75 at 14:42 ET. USZs fell to 110, the lowest level since 9:55 ET. Near 14:48 ET, ESZs and USZs commenced rallies.
Bulls viewed the FOMC Communique and Powell as being dovish; it was vice versa for bears. Because there were nothing new from the FOMC or Powell, traders played for the start of November rally and the Fang rally ahead of Apple’s results that were due after Thursday’s close.
ESZs hit a daily high of 4264.75 at 15:35 ET on buying for expected institutional purchases near or at the close to start November. ESZs then rolled over gently into the NYSE close.
USZs rallied to 110 29/32 at 15:35 ET and then went inert.
@EricBalchunas: TLT (20+ year Treasury ETF) traded a stunning $99b worth of shares in October, which is a new world record for a bond ETF in terms of monthly volume (old record was HYG in March 2020). Nice work everyone. https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1719803328341663923 This may be the first time ever where a volume record was broken and it wasn’t around a mass freak out/crisis situation, eg most volume records were set in March 2020. Conversely, TLT was up 2% in Oct. Shows just how much it has become the focal point of Fed/rate betting.
Positive aspects of previous session The US Treasury’s verbal intervention plus start of November buying boosted stocks & bonds Fangs soared on trading buying ahead of Apple’s results that are due today
Negative aspects of previous session The Fed is either confused or lying about some economic issues, particularly inflation.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is a Fed rate hike still on the table for December?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open:Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4127.07 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4245.64; 4197.74
Hamas official vows to repeat Israel attacks ‘again and again’ until it’s destroyed Ghazi Hamad, a member of the militant group’s decision-making political bureau, warned that Gaza leadership would replicate the coordinated Oct. 7 attack, referred to by the terrorists as Operation al-Aqsa Flood, which killed more than 1,400 Israelis and took some 240 hostages… “We are called a nation of martyrs and are proud to sacrifice martyrs,” Hamad said. “Israel is a country that has no place on our land. We must remove that country because it constitutes a security, military and political catastrophe to the Arab and Islamic nations, and must be finished.”…“The existence of Israel is what causes all that pain, blood and tears,” Hamad said, calling the creation of the Jewish state “illogical.”… https://trib.al/ChvBU56 (Doesn’t this destroy the case for a ‘ceasefire’?)
WSJ editorial board: Hamas promises more massacres in Arabic while asking for a humanitarian reprieve in English. It knows from experience that some Westerners are gullible enough to fall for it.
GOP Sen. @TomCottonAR: Notice the leftists demanding a ceasefire don’t care that Hamas is launching rockets at civilians and holding babies hostage. They only want Israel to stop responding.
Biden calls for humanitarian ‘pause’ in Israel-Hamas war, time to get ‘prisoners’ out. – AP
@libsoftiktok: Cornell student Patrick Dai was arrested and charged for making online threats to k*ll, r*pe, and slit the throats of Jewish students. Accord to his Linkedin, He worked as a “safety officer” at Cornell. You can’t make this up. https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1719549185739857938
@canarymission: More on Ibrahim Bharmal, EDITOR of the Harvard Law Review at @Harvard_Law & @Kennedy_School. See him physically and verbally assault an Israeli student during an anti-Israel protest on campus. https://twitter.com/canarymission/status/1719785341622595860
Daily Mail: Anthony Fauci-run lab in MONTANA experimented with coronavirus strain shipped in from Wuhan a year BEFORE Covid pandemic began – the research is more evidence of ties between the US government and the Wuhan lab, as well as the funding of dangerous virus research… The 2018 experiment was carried out at the NIH’s Rocky Mountain Laboratories in Montana, which was overseen by Fauci… The research was a joint venture between the NIH’s Rocky Mountain Laboratories and Wuhan Institute of Virology collaborator Ralph Baric of the University of North Carolina. Scientists obtained 12 Egyptian fruit bats from a Maryland zoo and inoculated them with the WIV1-coronavirus… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12693441/fauci-nih-infected-bats-camp-david-coronavirus.html
@RonDeSantis: Enough is enough. Anthony Fauci needs to be held accountable, and there must be a reckoning for what Big Pharma and the Medical Swamp did to our country…
Biden-backed wind power company cancels New Jersey projects despite $1B in subsidieshttps://trib.al/qaVhPsy
WSJ: The Economy Is Great. Why Are Americans in Such a Rotten Mood? (Pay wall) Lingering inflation can’t explain all of the unhappiness… (Cuz government economic data is bogus!)
Today – The Fed Week, end of October, and start of November rally biases are over. Now, it’s up to Apple. Traders poured into Fangs in anticipation of Apple reporting great results after the close.
Some of the equity buying this week has been for the grand seasonal upward bias for stocks to rally from November 1 to April 30. At a minimum, it forced numerous shorts to cover.
Traders will buy dips and be bullish until Apple reports. Traders could liquidate ESZs and equities into any post-NYSE trading rally on Apple in order to get flat for the October Employment Report on Friday. Astute traders realize that Team Obama-Biden has been crafting better than reality NFP data for months.
ESZs are +7.00 and USZs are +30/32 at 20:30 ET on pundits’ claims that the Fed is finished hiking. Most of these ‘experts’ have proclaimed no more rate hikes for over a year; many harbor big bond loses.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon suspects Fed ‘may not be done’ raising rates amid ‘stickier’ inflation “I just think there’s a higher chance than probably other people think… I think there’s a chance that inflation is just a little stickier than people think and their fiscal and monetary stimulus in the last several years is more than people think… We’ll see.“… https://yahoo.trib.al/ZWv5hvB
Expected Earnings: CI 6.68, MAR 2.10, MRNA -1.90, BAX .68, AAPL 1.39, COP 2.10, LLY -0.15
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4350; 100-day MA: 4404; 150-day MA: 4320; 200-day MA: 4243 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,893; 100-day MA: 34,271; 150-day MA: 34,017; 200-day MA: 33,797 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3828.58 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 4425.18 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4137.82 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4189.92 triggers a sell signal
GOP Oversight Committee: Comer Reveals How Joe Biden Received Laundered China Money House Committee on Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) today released a video and bank records memorandum revealing how Joe Biden received $40,000 in laundered China money from the account of his brother, James Biden, and his sister-in-law, Sara Biden, in the form of a personal check… Hudson West III sent $400,000 to Owasco, P.C., an entity owned and controlled by Hunter Biden. On August 14, 2017, Hunter Biden wired $150,000 to Lion Hall Group, a company owned by President Biden’s brother James and sister-in-law Sara Biden. On August 28, 2017, Sara Biden withdrew $50,000 in cash from Lion Hall Group. Later the same day, she deposited it into her and James Biden’s personal checking account. On September 3, 2017, Sara Biden cut a check to Joe Biden for $40,000 for a “loan repayment.”… (Another ‘loan repayment?!) 10% of $400k is $40k; 10% for The Big Guy.) https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-reveals-how-joe-biden-received-laundered-china-money/
Top prosecutor undercuts Garland, says Weiss needed DOJ approval to bring Hunter Biden tax charges – The Justice Department’s chief tax prosecutor has told Congress that Delaware U.S. Attorney David Weiss could not bring tax evasion charges against Hunter Biden without getting prior approval from his office, further undercutting Attorney General Merrick Garland’s portrayal that the politically sensitive probe was completely independent… Acting Assistant Attorney General Stuart Goldberg, the current chief of the DOJ tax division, also acknowledged that Hunter Biden’s case got special attention because of his father’s political stature… Goldberg, a career federal prosecutor for 35 years, told the House committee he was kept apprised of and participated in deliberations on the Hunter Biden investigation… Goldberg was prevented by the Justice Department from answering many of the investigators’ substantive questions on the Hunter Biden investigation and charging decisions around the case… https://justthenews.com/accountability/whistleblowers/weiss-needed-approval-tax-division-bring-hunter-biden-charges-doj-tax
GOP Sen. @HawleyMO: A patriotic whistleblower told me DHS special agents are being pulled off investigating child trafficking to make sandwiches for illegal immigrants at the southern border. Secretary Mayorkas can’t deny it.https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1719417043479306405
Elon Musk: “Twitter Was Completely Controlled by the Far Left” “The degree to which Twitter was simply an arm of the government was not well understood by the public… everything was like Pravda basically, a state publication… “Republicans were suppressed at 10 times the rate of Democrats. That’s because old Twitter was fundamentally controlled by the far-left. It was, like, completely controlled by the far-left,” Musk asserted… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/elon-musk-twitter-was-completely-controlled-far-left
Elon Musk rips George Soros for eroding ‘fabric of civilization,’ says he rescued Twitter from ‘far-left’ – “In my opinion, he fundamentally hates humanity,” Musk said of Soros… “He’s doing things that erode the fabric of civilization,” Musk said. “Getting [district attorneys] elected who refused to prosecute crime, that’s part of the problem in San Francisco and LA and other cities. So why would you do that?” “… Soros realized that you don’t actually need to change the laws. You just need to change how they’re enforced.”… Musk told Rogan he bought Twitter because it was being “controlled by the far-left,” which he felt was having a “corrosive” influence on society… “…if you walk around downtown San Francisco, right near the X/Twitter headquarters, it’s a zombie apocalypse. I mean, it’s rough.”… The self-proclaimed environmentalist estimated the earth could take “ten times” the current population, “without destroying the forests.” “They’ve gone way too far. If you start thinking that humans are bad then the natural conclusion is that human should die out,” he argued. https://t.co/8vdDh3y1Sg
@DeSantisWarRoom: TRUMP, trying to read from the teleprompter: “This is your chance to take a stand against tyrants that support the one and only movement that can save our country and Make America Great Again.” What?https://twitter.com/JacobBloom31/status/1719741837055860873
Maine mass shooter’s family reached out to sheriff 5 months before rampage, sheriff’s office says They were concerned about his deteriorating mental health while he had access to firearms, authorities said Monday… When Card filled out the form at LaChapelle’s gun shop to pick up the silencer Aug. 5, he answered “yes” to the question: “Have you ever been adjudicated as a mental defective OR have you ever been committed to a mental institution?” “As soon as he answered that ‘yes’ we know automatically that this is disqualifying, he’s not getting a silencer today,” LaChapelle said… https://apnews.com/article/lewiston-maine-mass-shooting-35e78383dfb4fd84bfe07bcfc63760ca
AM2022.66
Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Ron Prosor speaks at a conference organized by Jerusalem Post, in New York City, USA. April 29, 2012. (credit: Marc Israel Sellem/POOL/FLASH90)
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