NOV 24//3RD DAY IN A ROW WE WITNESS THE DEFENSE OF $2,000 GOLD WHERE FINALLY IT CLOSES ABOVE THAT//GOLD CLOSED UP $11.20 TO $2002.35//SILVER CLOSED UP 70 CENTS TO $24.32/PLATINUM CLOSED UP $7.95 TO $933.80 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS UP $18.85 TO $1073.25//13 ISRAELI HOSTAGES RELEASED//ANDREW MAGUIRE TALKS TO BILL MURPHY CEO OF GATA//DUBLIN IN A MESS TODAY AS MIGRANT STABS 5 PEOPLE INCLUDING 3 CHILDREN (5 YR OLD IN CRITICAL CONDITION)//MORE UPDATES ON THE ISRAELI HAMAS WAR//LAWLESSNESS RETURNS TO FRANCE//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURIES UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//SLAY NEWS ETC//USA DATA RELEASE: POOR PMI NUMBERS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT..
190 H BMO CAPITAL 129 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 99 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 528 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 2863 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1 661 C JP MORGAN 3675 27 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1 690 C ABN AMRO 13 737 C ADVANTAGE 1 33 905 C ADM 8
TOTAL: 3,689 3,689
MONTH TO DATE: 5,694
JPMorgan stopped 0/20 contracts.
FOR NOV.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV/2023. CONTRACT: 368,900 NOTICES FOR 368,900 OZ or 11.474 TONNES
total notices so far: 5694 contracts for 569,400 oz (17.71 tonnes)
FOR NOV:
SILVER NOTICES 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 859 for 4,295,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $11.20//
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : / HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.28 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 70 CENTS AT THE SLV// HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .549 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 441.181 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 365 CONTRACTS TO 133,968 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR $0.21 LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. WE HAD SOME SPEC SHORT COVERING EPISODE IN WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING.. TAS ISSUANCE WAS A MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED 1861 CONTRACTS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 1861CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.32). AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 195 OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE SPEC SHORTS TRIED AGAIN DESPERATELY TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALLS WITH ZERO SUCCESS AS THEY ARE CONTINUALLY BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTERHOUSE
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A SMALL SIZED 170 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 1.430 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 165,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP +0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR 0 MILLION OZ//NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK 1.245 MILLION
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 4.520 MILLION OZ + 1.245 (EX. FOR RISK) = 5.765 MILLION OZ.
//GOOD SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/VI) MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1861 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL + ADDED 208 CONTRACTS (the cme will no longer provide preliminary no to be except through a paywall)
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV:
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 17 days, total 6404contracts: OR 32.020 MILLION OZ (377 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 32.020 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 32.020 MILLION OZ (GOING TO BE QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 365CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.32 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL 170 EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 170 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A SMALL INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV. OF 1.432 MILLION OZ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 165,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW STANDING 4.520 OZ + 1.245 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK: NEW TOTAL 5.765 MILLION OZ/// /// WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 403OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED 1861CONTRACTS//SOME FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION. THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT A HUGE (1861) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE., .
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 5,615 CONTRACTS TO 502,814 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED 357 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 5,615 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $8.45 LOSS IN PRICE//WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER STRONG INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV. AT 4.3514 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 352,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP + TODAY’S 3500 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 10.886 TONNES (350,000 OZ)// // EXCH. FOR RISK PRIOR: 5,3645= NEW EX. FOR RISK TOTAL: 16.2505 TONNES/ // TOTAL GOLD STANDING FOR NOV: 17.763 TONNES + 16.2505 TONNES (EX. FOR RISK) = 33.9935 TONNES // ALL OF..THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $8.45 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2592OI CONTRACTS (8.069)PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3013CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 502,814
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2592 CONTRACTS WITH 5,615 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 3013 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2592 CONTRACTS OR 68.062TONNES. WE HAD 3500 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 10.886 TONNES. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG 4867 CONTRACTS.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4867 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (5,615) //TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2,592 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) FAIR INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV. AT 4.3514 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 352,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP : NEW STANDING 17.763 TONNES + 16.2505 TONNES EXCHANGE /THUS NEW TOTAL FOR GOLD STANDING: 33.9935 TONNES // /// 3) SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AND SOME TAS LIQUIDATION AND WE HAD ATTEMPTED SPEC SHORT COVERINGS DURING THE COMEX SESSION AS THE SPECS ARE CONTINUALLY USHERED INTO THE SLAUGHTERHOUSE //4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 4867 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023 INCLUDING TODAY
NOV
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 58,575 CONTRACTS OR 5,857,500 OZ OR 182.19 TONNES IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3445 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 182.19 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 182.19/3550 x 100% TONNES 5.12% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 182.19TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH, EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPT. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE., FOR BOTH GOLD:
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (SEPT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 365CONTRACTS OI TO 133,968 AND FURTHER FROM OUR COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 170 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 170 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 170 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 573 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 170 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 195 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 0.925 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
FRIDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.88 PTS OR 0.68% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 351.42 PTS OR 1.76% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 173.79 PTS OR 0.52% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .12 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1537 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1586 /Oil UP TO 76.65 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 81.55/ Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 5,615 CONTRACTS TO 502,814 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $8.45 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY TRADING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 3013 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : DEC 3013 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3013CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2592 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3013LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 5,615 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $8.45//WEDNESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A STRONG SIZED 4867 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED TWO MONTHS HENCE)//.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: NOV (33.9935 TONNES ( NON ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 12 MONTHS OF 2021-2022:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $8.45) //// AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF2592TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED SOME SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 8.062 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV. (4.3514 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 352,000OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTALS STANDING:17.763 TONNES + 10.886 TONNES exchange for risk today +5.3645 EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR; TOTAL EX. FOR RISK : 16.2505 TONNES/// NEW TOTAL STANDING: 33.9935 TONNES ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $8.45. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE SPECULATORS HAVE GONE MASSIVELY SHORT WITH OUR BANKERS NET LONG. THE BIG QUESTION IS NOW HOW MUCH GOLD WILL THE BANKERS PULL FROM OUR SHORT SPECULATORS.
WE HAD REMOVED – 357X CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2592 CONTRACTS OR 259,200 OZ OR 8.062 TONNES.
2732.206 oz Brinks, JPMorgan 84 kilobars and 1 kilobar
No of oz served (contracts) today
3689 notice(s) 368,900 OZ 11.474 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
17 contracts 1700 oz 0.0528 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5694 notices 569,400 oz 17.71 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposit:
total dealer deposits: 0 oz
customer deposits: 2
i)Into Brinks 2700.055 oz (84 kilobars)
ii) Into JPMorgan: 32.141 oz (1 kilobar)
total customer deposits: 2732.206 oz
we had 1 customer withdrawals
i) Out of Int. Delaware 12,024.474 oz (374 kilobars)
total withdrawals 12,024.474 oz
Adjustments; 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.
For the front month of NOVEMBER we have an oi of 573 contracts having GAINED 3508 contracts. We had 20 contracts filed on WEDNESDAY, so we GAINED 3528 contracts or an additional 352,800 oz will stand for delivery at the comex in this NON active delivery month of NOVEMBER Our short speculators have been met with physical delivery demands by the bank. The only way they can obtain gold is through these EFP’s where delivery is taken in London on a T + 2 basis.
December LOST 28,610 contracts DOWN to 154,123 contracts. The Dec OI is unusually high with just 4 more trading days left before FDN.
JAN. LOST 10 contracts FALLING TO 2,856 contracts.
We had 3689 contracts filed for today representing 368,900 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 3675 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 3675 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 27 notice(s) was (were) stopped received by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV. /2023. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5694 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (3706 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 3689 x 100 oz per contract equals 571,100 OZ OR 17.763 TONNES + 10.886 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY+5.3645 TONNES EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR: total ex. for risk = 16.2505//THUS TOTAL STANDING: 33.9935 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV.contract month: No of notices filed so far (5694) x 100 oz + (3706) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (3689) x 100 oz) which equals 571,100 oz standing OR 17.763 TONNES + 16.2505 EX FOR RISK FOR MONTH = 33.9935 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING: 33.9935 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR AN ACTIVE BUT GENERALLY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH. (OCT). Somebody is after a considerable amount of gold from the comex.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 19,870,682,127 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 10,051.625.867 (311.71 tonnes)..cme corrected
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,819,056.260 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 8,216,325 (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 255.56 tonnes//dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
NOV 24
//2023// THE NOV 2023 SILVER CONTRACT
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1427,097.624 OZ Brinks CNT
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
0 CONTRACT(S) (nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
45 contracts (225,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
859 Contracts (4,295,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: 0
total: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 deposits customer account:
total customer deposit nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.441 million oz/267.615 million or 50.09%
Comex withdrawals 2
i) Out of Brinks: 939,088.08 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 492,009.84
total: 1,427,097.624 oz
adjustments: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 37.338 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 267m615 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR August:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF NOV /2023 OI: 45 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 6 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 39 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 33 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 165,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND FOR SILVER IN NOVEMBER AT THE COMEX
DEC. LOST 7971 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 35,225
JANUARY GAINED 11 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1396
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for NIL oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 98,071// very good
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 79,977 good
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 859 x 5,000 oz = 4,295,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (45) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV/2023 contract month: 859 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV (45) – number of notices served upon today (0 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month equates to 4.520 MILLION OZ +0 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY + 1.245 MILLION OZ (EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR) =5.765 MILLION OZ
There are 37.338 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
NOV 24/WITH GOLD UP $11.20 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 882.28 TONNES
NOV 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.45 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES
NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $21.65 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD / / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES
NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.15 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 12.98 TONNES INTO THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.43 TONNES
NOV 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES
NOV 16/WITH GOLD UP $22.70 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES
NOV 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES
NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $16.35 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // //A DEPOSIT OF 2.3 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.45 TONNES
NOV 13/WITH GOLD UP $12.00 TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // //A DEPOSIT OF .87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.15 TONNES
NOV 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $30.70 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.28 TONNES
NOV 9/WITH GOLD UP $12.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.28 TONNES
NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.95 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.28 TONNES
NOV 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.70 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 4.33 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
NOV 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
NOV 3/WITH GOLD UP $5.75 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
NOV 2/WITH GOLD UP $6.55 TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.51 TONNES
NOV 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.49 TONNES
OCT 31/859.49 TONNES//
OCT 30/WITH GOLD UP $7.80 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 27/WITH GOLD UP $1.20 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 26/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// // INVENTORY RESTS AT 861.80 TONNES
OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $9.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES
OCT 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.30 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.17 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD! //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.07 TONNES
OCT 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE 15.00 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//WHAT A MASSIVE FRAUD! //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.24 TONNES
OCT 20/WITH GOLD UP $14.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
OCT 19/WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.19 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.24 TONNES
OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $32.55 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: //: // INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.43 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 882.28 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
NOV 24/WITH SILVER UP 70 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //:////A WITHDRAWAL OF 549,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.181 MILLION OZ
NOV 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 21 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.730 MILLION OZ
NOV 21/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.794 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.730 MILLION OZ
NOV 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 26 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,824,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.936 MILLION OZ
NOV 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,832,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 437,104 MILLION OZ
NOV 16/WITH SILVER UP 38 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 778,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.768 MILLION OZ
NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 39 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV://// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.587 MILLION OZ
NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 78 CENTS TODAY:SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 183,000 OZ INTO THE SLV ////// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.587 MILLION OZ
NOV 13/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.364 MILLION OZ
NOV 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF .733 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.364 MILLION OZ
NOV 9/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 8/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 59 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 3/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.638 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.631 MILLION OZ
NOV 2/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.924 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.993 MILLION OZ
NOV 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 916,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.917 MILLION OZ
OCT 31/442.833 MILLION OZ///INVENTORY
OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 46 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.750 MILLION OZ
OCT 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 641,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.750 MILLION OZ
OCT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.391 MILLION OZ
OCT 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.871 MILLION OZ
OCT 20/WITH SILVER UP 50 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.658 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/ /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.871 MILLION OZ
OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP XXX CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A /// /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
OCT 18/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.207 MILLLION OZ FROM THE SLV///// /.////INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.529 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 441.181 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
2,c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens, John Rubino
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES:
Alasdair Macleod: Central banks are always managing the crises they cause
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-11-23 14:06Section: Daily Dispatches
By Alasdair Macleod Head of Research, GoldMoney, Toronto via Schiff Gold, White Plains, New York Thursday, November 23, 2023
This article concludes that the current downturn in bond yields is part of a continuing market manipulation by central banks in order to restore confidence in the global economic outlook.
There is a long history of government intervention in markets. In the nineteenth century, it was by legal regulation, the most notable of which was the 1844 Bank Charter Act, which had to be suspended in 1847, 1857, and 1866.
From the early 1920s the emphasis on intervention changed under Benjamin Strong, the first Fed chairman, who started to deliberately expand central bank credit to stimulate the economy. Coupled with the expansion phase of the commercial bank credit cycle, this led to the Roaring ’20s, the stock market boom, and its collapse.
Presidents Hoover and Roosevelt compounded the errors with economic interventions that only succeeded in prolonging the 1930s depression. It was the start of modern government economic and monetary manipulation, which took on a new urgency under the fiat dollar in the 1970s.
While they create problems by their interventions, governments have perfected the art of managing markets to restore failing confidence in credit values. This was dramatically proved in the wake of the Lehman failure.
But if government intervention is behind the current decline in bond yields and interest rate expectations, it is only a temporary solution to G-7 government debt traps, the squeeze on bank credit, and a deteriorating economic outlook. These are problems deferred, not resolved. …
Mali signs agreement with Russia to build gold refinery
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2023-11-23 08:56Section: Daily Dispatches
By Tiemoko Diallo Reuters Wednesday, November 22, 2023
BAMAKO, Mali — Mali’s military government said it has signed an agreement with Russia to build a gold refinery in the capital, Bamako, one of a slew of deals between the two countries as Russia seeks to extend its regional influence.
The accord, a non-binding memorandum of understanding, involves building a 200-tonnes-per-year refinery, minister Alousséni Sanou said in an interview on state television broadcast late Tuesday.
The memorandum is valid for four years, he said, without giving a timeline for construction. If built, it would be the West African country’s largest gold refinery.
“This will allow us not only to control all gold production but also to be able to correctly apply all taxes and duties,” Sanou said.
The deal is the latest sign of Russia’s deepening interests in Mali, one of Africa’s largest gold producers, just as Western influence there wanes. …
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES: LITHIUM
Lithium Crash Deepens With Battery Metal Now Down 78% From Peak
THURSDAY, NOV 23, 2023 – 02:45 PM
The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has crashed in the last 12 months. This downward pressure is attributed to oversupplied markets in Asia, primarily because the global adoption rate of electric vehicles has notably slowed amid high interest rates.
Since November 2022, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in China plunged from $84,500 per metric ton to $18,630, or about a 78% decline.
According to forecasts from industry consultancy Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the global lithium market won’t rebalance and return to a deficit until 2028.
General Motors, Honda, LG Energy Solution, and other auto and battery manufacturers have dialed back EV expansion plans in recent months, mainly because rising interest rates are curbing demand. This has created a global supply glut for the battery metal.
BloombergNEF’s Allan Ray Restauro said, “With lithium supply growing more next year, we are likely going to see prices falling further, adding, “On the demand side, some regional differences on EV sales have been dragging sentiment down around the industry.”
The world’s second-largest lithium producer, Chilean miner SQM, recently blamed the plunge in lithium prices on excess inventory, especially in Asia.
Plunging prices come as the ‘green’ energy bubble is melting down, with the world’s largest offshore wind farm developer, Orsted A/S, abandoning US projects, and solar stocks crashing on sliding demand.
END
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.1537
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1586
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.88 PTS OR 0.65%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 351.42 PTS OR 1.76%
2. Nikkei closed UP 173.79PTS OR 0.52%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 103.52 EURO RISES TO 1.0919 UP 16 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.772 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 149.53/JAPANESE YEN FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP// OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.6325***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 4.390** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.621…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.790
3j Gold at $1995.25 silver at: 23.67 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 46 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 88.86//
3m oil into the 76 dollar handle for WTI and 81 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 149,53// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.773% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8828 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9641 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.474 UP 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.585 UP 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.942 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.88…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 16 BASIS PTS AT 4.328
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge:
Futures Flat In Quiet Session As ECB Signals End Of Rate Hikes
FRIDAY, NOV 24, 2023 – 08:27 AM
US equity futures and European stocks rose on the last day of the holiday-shortened week, with sentiment boosted after ECB President Christine Lagarde said policymakers are now in a position to pause after a tightening cycle that risks plunging the euro area into a recession. At 7:45am, both S&P and Nasdaq futures rose 0.1%, while treasuries dropped as they reopened after Thanksgiving, following a slide in European bonds after Germany suspended a constitutional limit on net new borrowing; 10Y TSY yields rise 7bps to 4.47%. The dollar dipped and bitcoin made another run for $38,000.
In premarket trading, Nvidia dropped 1.7% after a Reuters reported that the chip company has told customers in China it is delaying the launch of a new artificial intelligence chip until the first quarter. Tesla dips 0.8%, coming under pressure amid the prospect of steeper price cuts from competitor BYD for its Dynasty series models and an ongoing strike in Sweden. Some other notable premarket movers:
CleanSpark gains 1.9% as shares of cryptocurrency-linked stocks rise in the premarket session with Bitcoin advancing.
IRobot jumps 30% as Reuters reports that Amazon is set to win unconditional EU antitrust approval for its acquisition of the household appliance company.
Global stocks are on track for the best month in three years, with the MSCI All Country World Index up 8.6% this month amid growing hopes for peaking US interest rates. Traders are awaiting manufacturing data from the world’s biggest economy later Friday for further clues on the policy path.
“Lower bond yields are driving equity valuations, although the fundamental reason behind the drop in yields, lower inflation caused by weaker growth, isn’t completely discounted into earnings estimates,” said Kyle Rodda, a senior analyst at Capital.com in Melbourne. “Eventually, profit expectations will have to align with economic reality.”
With US markets quiet, European sentiment got a boost after Lagarde said the ECB is now at a point where it can assess the impact of its tightening, echoing other policy makers who suggested on Friday that further tightening may not be necessary. An improvement in German business confidence provided another ray of light against a gloomy economic backdrop for the region. ECB Governing Council Member Robert Holzmann said there’s equal probability of a rate hike or cut in the second quarter of 2024, while his colleague Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the central bank won’t increase borrowing costs again, unless there is an unexpected event.
“It seems the worst for the euro area economy could be behind us,” said Karsten Junius, chief economist at Bank J. Safra Sarafin Ltd. “The economic dynamic is not deteriorating further and might stabilize at low levels instead. This might provide the ground for slightly stronger private consumption in the coming quarters.”
The Stoxx Europe 600 index was about 0.2% higher on course to log a second weekly gain and on track for its best month since January. Energy and insurance stocks were the biggest gainers, while miners and consumer shares lagged.BASF SE led an advance for the chemical sector after Bloomberg News repored that Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. is exploring an acquisition of its Wintershall Dea unit. Here are the other biggest movers Friday:
Evonik rises as much as 1.8%, as Stifel upgrades the German chemicals manufacturer to buy from hold, citing increasing confidence in its earnings recovery in 2024
MFE shares advance as much as 5.6%, adding to a 6.2% gain on Thursday, after the broadcaster reported solid results with a positive advertising outlook. Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded the stock to hold from reduce
U-blox shares gain as much as 3.3% after Kepler Cheuvreux lifted the Swiss wireless communications technologies provider’s price target, saying its exit from the cellular chipset research and development “arms race” against more resourceful competition is positive
Sage falls as much as 2.3% on Friday, easing from a record high, after Canaccord Genuity downgrades the software firm to sell from hold. The stock’s strong rally since its FY23 results presents a “compelling” profit taking opportunity, analyst Kai Korschelt says
Mercedes Benz falls as much as 1.1% and Porsche slips 2% after Barclays analysts downgrade their recommendations on the carmakers
Ambea falls as much as 7.9%, the most since February, after investment group Triton’s ACTR Holding sold 8.4 million shares in the Swedish care-home operator at SEK43.5, representing a 9.4% discount versus Thursday’s close
Team17 drops by a record 42% in London as the maker of the Dredge fishing adventure videogame warns some of its titles are not performing as well as it had expected, and adds it’s being “too slow to address some project overspends”
A gauge of business expectations in the euro area’s biggest economy rose for a third month in November, pointing to an impending recovery for an economy that is probably in a recession and beset by a budget crisis. Data on economic output earlier had highlighted Germany’s struggle to recover from an energy-induced downturn last winter and the mounting impact of higher borrowing costs.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were mixed. Hong Kong and mainland Chinese equities dropped, reversing Thursday’s rally inspired by Beijing’s widening property rescue campaign. Japanese stocks rose in catch-up play after a national holiday, while those in Australia also gained. In China, a gauge of developer stocks fell 1.9% in mid-afternoon trade, following a 8.9% jump Thursday. The previous surge came after Bloomberg News reported that China may allow banks to offer unsecured short-term loans to qualified builders.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured despite the lack of obvious catalysts, while PBoC liquidity efforts and news that China is mulling unprecedented support for the property sector by allowing banks to offer unsecured short-term loans to qualified developers have failed to support the risk tone.
ASX 200 was led higher by strength in utilities, financials and the energy sector albeit with gains capped by tech weakness and after an Australian warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait which risks stoking frictions between Australia and its largest trading partner.
Nikkei 225 outperformed on return from its holiday closure as participants digest data releases including national CPI which printed softer than expected although mostly accelerated from the previous month.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat, as is the euro, with little reaction to German IFO data. JPY appreciated 0.2% before erasing gains. The pound rises 0.2% versus the greenback. The yen climbed after the nation’s key inflation measure accelerated for the first time in four months, staying well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. The Aussie dollar hit its session high of 0.6570 after a couple of exporters entered the market at about the same time to buy spot from local banks, according to Asia-based FX traders
In rates, Treasuries dropped after trading resumed following a holiday, paring gains for the month. The 10-year yield rose more than six basis points to 4.47%, tracking declines in European bonds following a report Thursday that Germany will suspend debt limits for a fourth consecutive year, adding to concerns over more borrowing.
In commodities, Brent oil gained above $81 a barrel after dropping 1.3% over the previous two sessions, while US counterpart West Texas Intermediate was below $77 a barrel following the US Thanksgiving break. The OPEC+ alliance was forced to delay pivotal talks amid a dispute over output quotas, casting a pall of uncertainty over the group’s production policy for next year. The delayed OPEC+ discussions next week will be held online instead of in-person, with Saudi Arabia and its allies embroiled in a dispute over African members’ production levels. Spot gold adds 0.1%.
Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include the German Ifo business climate indicator for November, along with the US flash PMIs for November. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and Vice President de Guindos.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,572.00
MXAP down 0.4% to 161.35
MXAPJ down 0.8% to 502.96
Nikkei up 0.5% to 33,625.53
Topix up 0.5% to 2,390.94
Hang Seng Index down 2.0% to 17,559.42
Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 3,040.97
Sensex little changed at 65,962.64
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 7,040.76
Kospi down 0.7% to 2,496.63
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 458.39
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.66%
Euro little changed at $1.0911
Brent Futures up 0.2% to $81.57/bbl
Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,994.88
U.S. Dollar Index down 0.21% to 103.70
Top overnight news from Bloomberg
European shares struggled for traction after the latest economic data highlighted Germany’s struggle to recover from an energy-induced downturn last winter and the mounting impact of higher borrowing costs.
China is ramping up pressure on banks to support struggling real estate developers, signaling President Xi Jinping’s tolerance for property sector pain is nearing its limit.
The first truce since the war between Israel and Hamas erupted last month went into effect on Friday morning. The deal came after weeks of complex and delicate talks brokered by Qatar, the US and Egypt.
Japan’s key inflation measure accelerated for the first time in four months, coming largely in line with market expectations that price gains will continue and heightening the Bank of Japan’s dependence on data ahead of its December policy meeting.
Treasuries fell as they reopened after Thanksgiving, following a slide in European bonds that was caused by concerns of a burgeoning supply and the potential that central banks will keep rates higher for longer.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed in the absence of a lead from Wall St and as markets headed into the start of the Israel-Hamas truce. ASX 200 was led higher by strength in utilities, financials and the energy sector albeit with gains capped by tech weakness and after an Australian warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait which risks stoking frictions between Australia and its largest trading partner. Nikkei 225 outperformed on return from its holiday closure as participants digest data releases including national CPI which printed softer than expected although mostly accelerated from the previous month. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured despite the lack of obvious catalysts, while PBoC liquidity efforts and news that China is mulling unprecedented support for the property sector by allowing banks to offer unsecured short-term loans to qualified developers have failed to support the risk tone.
Top Asian News
WHO held talks with Chinese health authorities in which requested data on the upsurge of respiratory illnesses among children in northern China was provided and no changes in the disease presentation were reported by Chinese health authorities. Furthermore, Chinese health authorities said the rise in respiratory illness has not resulted in patient loads exceeding hospital capacities and there has been no detection of unusual or novel pathogens or unusual clinical presentations including in Beijing and Liaoning.
Chinese Premier Li met with the French Foreign Minister in Beijing and said that China and France’s relationship is developing better in all aspects this year, according to Reuters.
US Navy operations chief is excited by prospects of improved communications with the Chinese military and said work is needed to solidify the next steps with the Chinese military, according to Reuters.
New Zealand’s National, NZ First and ACT parties signed a coalition agreement to form a government with Winston Peters appointed as Deputy PM for the first half of the three-year parliamentary term and David Seymour to be Deputy PM in the second half, while Nicola Willis is to be appointed as Finance Minister. Furthermore, incoming PM Luxon said the Reserve Bank Act will be amended to focus monetary policy on price stability and the incoming government’s policy includes repealing the ban on offshore oil and gas exploration.
European bourses are essentially unchanged with newsflow very light post-Thanksgiving, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%. Sectors are mixed but similarly contained with incremental outperformance in defensively-biased names at times while Auto names lag after broker activity. Stateside, futures are similarly contained on Black Friday with developments light aside from NVDA ahead of US Flash PMIs. Nvidia (NVDA) has reportedly informed customers that it is delaying the launch of the China-targeted H20 AI chip until Q1 2024 with the delay due to issues server manufacturers are having integrating the H20 chip, according to Reuters sources. -2.3% in -pre-market trade
Top European News
BoE’s Pill said the challenge for the Bank and other central banks is that headline inflation is coming down, while he added that economic activity and employment growth are weakening and that the central bank cannot afford to ease off tight monetary policy. Pill stated that UK monetary policy is in a difficult phase and warned of stubbornly high price pressures in the British economy, as well as noted that the MPC had to resist the temptation to declare victory and move on from battle to quash inflation, according to FT.
ECB’s Villeroy said he doesn’t think the ECB will raise rates again unless there is an unexpected event, while he noted that a gradual reduction in rates will come one day, but added that they are not there yet.
ECB’s Holzmann says the likelihood of another rate hike is not smaller than that of rate cuts; do still have high inflation numbers, via Die Presse; suggestion on PEPP would be that ECB reduces reinvestments step by step as of March.
German Finance Minister Lindner confirmed the debt brake suspension for 2023 but added the suspension does not mean new debt.
FX
Dollar drifts sideways pre-flash US PMIs, with DXY restrained between 103.84-62 parameters.
Pound perky amidst elevated UK yields as Cable eclipses recent peaks, at 1.2565, and EUR/GBP probes 50 DMA.
Kiwi underpinned as NZ retail sales defy consensus for a fall and coalition government is formed, NZD/USD 0.6050+ and AUD/NZD cross sub-1.0850.
Euro remains capped by expiries close to 1.0900 vs the Greenback and the Yen is hampered by higher Treasury yields as USD/JPY pivots 149.50.
Loonie straddles 1.3700 awaiting Canadian retail sales.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1151 vs exp. 7.1440 (prev. 7.1212)
Fixed Income
Debt futures flogged on Black Friday and only enticing buyers at fresh weekly lows.
Bunds towards the bottom of 130.11-63 range, with technical and psychological support at 130.00.
Gilts midway between 96.07-71 parameters and T-note closer to 108-12 than 108-31 ahead of preliminary US PMIs.
German Finance Minister Lindner says will put to Cabinet the supplementary budget for 2023 next week; says can only decide about 2024 budget once the country has a supplementary budget for 2023.. Prior to this: Germany is to suspend borrowing limit for 2023 (fourth consecutive year) after the budget ruling; German Finance Minister Lindner is to announce debt brake suspension on Thursday, according to Bloomberg.
Commodities
WTI and Brent January futures trade horizontally but show a mismatch in intraday price changes amid the lack of settlement.
Spot gold is flat intraday and just under the USD 2k/oz mark with base metals similarly uneventful given the non-committal tone thus far.
Volumes remain light with newsflow similarly sparse after initial OPEC+ sources alongside the commencement of the Israel-Hamas four-day truce.
OPEC+ is moving closer towards a compromise with African oil producers, according to Reuters citing two OPEC+ sources.
Geopolitics
A four-day truce in the Israel-Hamas war took effect at 7:00 am local time (05:00 GMT) on Friday, with hostages held in the Gaza Strip set to be released later in the day in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, according to AFP.
Israel’s military said achieving control over the northern half of Gaza is only the first stage in the campaign to destroy Hamas, while they are preparing for the next stages and are looking forward in the coming days in which they will focus on planning and fulfilling the next stages of the war, according to Reuters.
Israeli military sounded sirens in two villages near Gaza warning of possible rocket launches despite the touted start of the truce.
Hamas’ armed wing spokesperson called for an escalation of the confrontation with Israel on all resistance fronts.
An Israeli government official has told LBC News there is scope to extend a four-day pause in fighting with Hamas; The first set of civilians held captive by Hamas are expected to be freed from Gaza this afternoon.
“3 Palestinians injured in IDF shooting at civilians trying to return to the northern Gaza Strip”, according to Al Jazeera – DETAILS LIGHT (08:25GMT/03:25EST).
Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said an Australian warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait.
The White House is reportedly concerned that the UK’s Rwanda plan undermines the Good Friday agreement in Northern Ireland, according to The Times.
Russia’s Kremlin says the idea of creating a military Schengen zone in Europe to allow NATO forces to freely move around is a cause for concern; Russia will respond if such a zone becomes a reality.
US Event Calendar
09:45: Nov. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 50.3, prior 50.6
09:45: Nov. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 50.4, prior 50.7
09:45: Nov. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 49.9, prior 50.0
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The Thanksgiving holiday means it’s been a quiet 24 hours, since US markets were closed yesterday and they’re only open for a half-day today. In the meantime, the main story has been an ongoing bond selloff in Europe, mainly thanks to another batch of hawkish commentary from central bankers, along with some flash PMIs that were slightly better than expected. So there was a bit of a pushback to the recent narrative that rate cuts are just around the corner. Nevertheless, even as investors became more sceptical about near-term rate cuts, risk assets continued to power forward. Indeed, the STOXX 600 (+0.27%) hit a 2-month high, US equity futures were also in positive territory, and the iTraxx crossover index reached its tightest level in over 18 months .
We’ll start with the government bond selloff, which continued for a second day thanks to several developments that collectively leaned on the hawkish side. First, ECB officials continued to push back on rate cuts. For instance, Bundesbank President Nagel said that it’d be “a mistake to loosen our monetary policy stance too early”, and Irish central bank governor Makhlouf said “I would not rule out today that we have to go up another rung”. Separately, we also had the account of the ECB’s latest meeting in October, which explicitly held open the prospect of further rate hikes. It said that “the view was held that the Governing Council should be ready, on the basis of an ongoing assessment, for further interest rate hikes if necessary, even if this was not part of the current baseline scenario.”
On top of that, yesterday saw the release of the November flash PMIs in Europe, which came in slightly on the upside. That included the Euro Area composite PMI, which rose to 47.1 in November (vs. 46.8 expected), and both the manufacturing and services numbers were both slightly above consensus too. Here in the UK, there was a larger upside surprise, with the composite PMI up to 50.1 (vs. 48.7 expected), which puts it just above the expansionary 50-mark for the first time since July.
These developments contributed to a selloff in European government bonds, with yields on 10yr bunds (+5.8bps), OATs (+6.5bps) and BTPs (+7.2bps) all rising on the day. In particular, 10yr gilt yields (+10.0bps) saw the biggest increase thanks to the upside surprise in the UK PMIs, which came on top of the fiscal easing announced in the Autumn Statement the previous day. In turn, that meant that investors continued to price in a more hawkish path for the Bank of England over the months ahead. For instance, according to overnight index swaps , the chance of a rate cut by the June meeting has fallen from 97% on Monday to just 36% by the close yesterday .
That move to price out the chance of rate cuts has been evident more broadly over the last week, and we’ve seen investors dial back the more dovish expectations following the US CPI report on November 14. At the ECB, market pricing for a rate cut by April hit an intraday peak of 93% last week, but was down to 59% by the close last night. Likewise at the Fed, the chance of a cut by May has fallen from an intraday peak of 94% last week to 56% by yesterday’s close. So investors are still expecting a rate cut from the Fed and the ECB by Q2, but there’s a bit less conviction on that relative to a week ago. And overnight, we’ve seen US Treasuries catchup with yesterday’s selloff, with the 10yr yield up +5.4bps to 4.46% .
For equities, yesterday saw a continued advance across Europe that took the STOXX 600 (+0.27%) up to a 2-month high. That advance was clear across several countries, with the DAX (+0.23%), the CAC 40 (+0.24%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.19%) all posting similar moves. Although US markets were closed, futures were still open and those on the S&P 500 were pointing modestly higher throughout the European session and remain slightly higher (+0.05%) this morning.
Overnight in Asia, equity markets have seen a more negative trend, with losses for the major indices. That includes the Hang Seng (-1.46%), the CSI 300 (-0.62%) and the KOSPI (-0.50%), although in Japan the Nikkei (+0.55%) has been the exception as it resumed trading after the previous day’s holiday. The moves also follow some Japan’s inflation data, which showed headline CPI rising to +3.3% in October (vs. +3.4% expected), whilst core-core CPI fell back to +4.0% (vs. +4.1% expected). In the meantime, the flash composite PMI fell to 50.0 in November, marking its weakest level since December 2022.
Finally in Germany, the government announced they would suspend the debt brake for a fourth consecutive year. That follows last week’s ruling by the federal constitutional court that they couldn’t use €60bn of unused borrowing capacity from the pandemic for its climate fund. Finance Minister Christian Lindner is set to present a supplementary budget for 2023 next week.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the German Ifo business climate indicator for November, along with the US flash PMIs for November. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde and Vice President de Guindos.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
European bourses & US futures are essentially unchanged, with price action & newsflow limited post-Thanksgiving – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, NOV 24, 2023 – 05:54 AM
European bourses & US futures are essentially unchanged, with price action & newsflow limited post-Thanksgiving
DXY tilts lower with GBP bid as UK yields rise, NZD underpinned by retail data while EUR was largely unreactive to Ifo
EGBs & USTs continue to slump with supply-side dynamics in play
Commodities await any fresh OPEC and/or geopolitical updates, the latter following the Israel-Hamas truce commencing
Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales, US PMI (Flash), Speeches from ECB’s de Cos & de Guindos. Early Market Closures in the US Post-Thanksgiving.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are essentially unchanged with newsflow very light post-Thanksgiving, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%
Sectors are mixed but similarly contained with incremental outperformance in defensively-biased names at times while Auto names lag after broker activity.
Stateside, futures are similarly contained on Black Friday with developments light aside from NVDA ahead of US Flash PMIs.
Nvidia (NVDA) has reportedly informed customers that it is delaying the launch of the China-targeted H20 AI chip until Q1 2024 with the delay due to issues server manufacturers are having integrating the H20 chip, according to Reuters sources. -2.3% in -pre-market trade
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
Debt futures flogged on Black Friday and only enticing buyers at fresh weekly lows.
Bunds towards the bottom of 130.11-63 range, with technical and psychological support at 130.00.
Gilts midway between 96.07-71 parameters and T-note closer to 108-12 than 108-31 ahead of preliminary US PMIs.
German Finance Minister Lindner says will put to Cabinet the supplementary budget for 2023 next week; says can only decide about 2024 budget once the country has a supplementary budget for 2023.. Prior to this: Germany is to suspend borrowing limit for 2023 (fourth consecutive year) after the budget ruling; German Finance Minister Lindner is to announce debt brake suspension on Thursday, according to Bloomberg.
BoE’s Pill said the challenge for the Bank and other central banks is that headline inflation is coming down, while he added that economic activity and employment growth are weakening and that the central bank cannot afford to ease off tight monetary policy. Pill stated that UK monetary policy is in a difficult phase and warned of stubbornly high price pressures in the British economy, as well as noted that the MPC had to resist the temptation to declare victory and move on from battle to quash inflation, according to FT.
ECB’s Villeroy said he doesn’t think the ECB will raise rates again unless there is an unexpected event, while he noted that a gradual reduction in rates will come one day, but added that they are not there yet.
ECB’s Holzmann says the likelihood of another rate hike is not smaller than that of rate cuts; do still have high inflation numbers, via Die Presse; suggestion on PEPP would be that ECB reduces reinvestments step by step as of March.
German Finance Minister Lindner confirmed the debt brake suspension for 2023 but added the suspension does not mean new debt.
DATA RECAP
German Ifo Business Climate New (Nov) 87.3 vs. Exp. 87.5 (Prev. 86.9); Current Conditions New (Nov) 89.4 vs. Exp. 89.5 (Prev. 89.2)
German Ifo Expectations New (Nov) 85.2 vs. Exp. 85.7 (Prev. 84.7, Rev 84.8); Court ruling on debt brake had no visible effect on the survey.
Ifo President says the German economy is stabilising and maybe growing slightly; Germany is probably past the worst of the downturn; the worst case for the budget situation would be a recession, via Bloomberg TV.
UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Nov) -24 vs. Exp. -28 (Prev. -30)
GEOPOLITICS
A four-day truce in the Israel-Hamas war took effect at 7:00 am local time (05:00 GMT) on Friday, with hostages held in the Gaza Strip set to be released later in the day in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, according to AFP.
Israel’s military said achieving control over the northern half of Gaza is only the first stage in the campaign to destroy Hamas, while they are preparing for the next stages and are looking forward in the coming days in which they will focus on planning and fulfilling the next stages of the war, according to Reuters.
Israeli military sounded sirens in two villages near Gaza warning of possible rocket launches despite the touted start of the truce.
Hamas’ armed wing spokesperson called for an escalation of the confrontation with Israel on all resistance fronts.
An Israeli government official has told LBC News there is scope to extend a four-day pause in fighting with Hamas; The first set of civilians held captive by Hamas are expected to be freed from Gaza this afternoon.
“3 Palestinians injured in IDF shooting at civilians trying to return to the northern Gaza Strip”, according to Al Jazeera – DETAILS LIGHT (08:25GMT/03:25EST).
Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said an Australian warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait.
The White House is reportedly concerned that the UK’s Rwanda plan undermines the Good Friday agreement in Northern Ireland, according to The Times.
Russia’s Kremlin says the idea of creating a military Schengen zone in Europe to allow NATO forces to freely move around is a cause for concern; Russia will respond if such a zone becomes a reality.
CRYPTO
Celsius revamp plan hits speed bump with SEC; US SEC wants more information about the assets of the former crypto lender which is reorganizing through bankruptcy, according to CoinDesk sources.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mixed in the absence of a lead from Wall St and as markets headed into the start of the Israel-Hamas truce.
ASX 200 was led higher by strength in utilities, financials and the energy sector albeit with gains capped by tech weakness and after an Australian warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait which risks stoking frictions between Australia and its largest trading partner.
Nikkei 225 outperformed on return from its holiday closure as participants digest data releases including national CPI which printed softer than expected although mostly accelerated from the previous month.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured despite the lack of obvious catalysts, while PBoC liquidity efforts and news that China is mulling unprecedented support for the property sector by allowing banks to offer unsecured short-term loans to qualified developers have failed to support the risk tone.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
WHO held talks with Chinese health authorities in which requested data on the upsurge of respiratory illnesses among children in northern China was provided and no changes in the disease presentation were reported by Chinese health authorities. Furthermore, Chinese health authorities said the rise in respiratory illness has not resulted in patient loads exceeding hospital capacities and there has been no detection of unusual or novel pathogens or unusual clinical presentations including in Beijing and Liaoning.
Chinese Premier Li met with the French Foreign Minister in Beijing and said that China and France’s relationship is developing better in all aspects this year, according to Reuters.
US Navy operations chief is excited by prospects of improved communications with the Chinese military and said work is needed to solidify the next steps with the Chinese military, according to Reuters.
New Zealand’s National, NZ First and ACT parties signed a coalition agreement to form a government with Winston Peters appointed as Deputy PM for the first half of the three-year parliamentary term and David Seymour to be Deputy PM in the second half, while Nicola Willis is to be appointed as Finance Minister. Furthermore, incoming PM Luxon said the Reserve Bank Act will be amended to focus monetary policy on price stability and the incoming government’s policy includes repealing the ban on offshore oil and gas exploration.
DATA RECAP
Japanese National CPI YY (Oct) 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.0%); Ex. Fresh Food 2.9% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.8%)
Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Oct) 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 4.2%)
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.88 PTS OR 0.68% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 351.42 PTS OR 1.76% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 173.79 PTS OR 0.52% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .12 % /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1537 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1586 /Oil UP TO 76.65 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 81.55/ Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/ //
NORTH KOREA/
END
2e) JAPAN
end
3 CHINA
This is totally futile: Beijing is supposedly going to bail out its sinking property sector by giving loans to bankrupt firms like Country Garden and Evergrande. The problem is they overbuilt and citizens cannot afford the housing prices
(zerohedge)
In “Significant Shift” To Bailing Out Its Sinking Property Sector, China Puts Largest Developer On Rescue “White List”
WEDNESDAY, NOV 22, 2023 – 07:30 PM
In a move which analysts say marks a “significant shift” in Beijing’s strategy to assist distressed builders and boost confidence in China’s sinking housing sector amid the deepening property crisis, overnight Beijing included property giants Country Garden Holdings (whose collapse would be orders of magnitude worse than that of Evergrande) and Sino-Ocean Group to China’s draft list of 50 developers eligible for a range of financing support which we profiled earlier this week.
As Bloomberg anchor Sofia Horta e Costa notes, “Country Garden was previously the leading developer by sales with numerous ongoing construction projects. If China aims to bolster confidence among homeowners and buyers, ensuring that projects will be completed and delivered seamlessly even in the event of a developer default, then this is the way to go.”
CIFI Holdings Group, another builder that has missed debt payments, was also included on the white list according to Bloomberg, which adds that regulators are set to finalize the roster and distribute it to banks and other financial institutions within days.
The inclusion of distressed builders such as Country Garden, which missed payments on a dollar bond for the first time last month, underscores regulators’ shifting stance toward some of the nation’s biggest private developers as the refusal of the relentless property crisis to ease. Chinese President Xi Jinping has also stepped up support for the broader economy, issuing more sovereign debt for infrastructure spending, raising the budget deficit ratio and even making an unprecedented visit to the central bank.
Then again, not a day goes by this year when we are not inundated with the latest Chinese “news” and “plans” of a moderate stimulus, one which never actually materializes, however, and which is just recycled into the next newscycle where readers completely forget that they are just reading recycled news over and over.
And this time was no different because a Bloomberg index of Chinese developer stocks rallied this week on expectations that the financing help may alleviate fears of further contagion in China’s property sector. Still, some investors were concerned the list would mainly comprise state-owned firms and leave out distressed builders most in need of the support. Gemdale, which hasn’t missed any debt payments, is also on the draft list along with China Vanke, Seazen and Longfor Group.
Even if Beijing has finally decided to step in and bail out its long-suffering housing sector, there is no guarantee that the aid isn’t a case of too little, too late. Country Garden, which is bigger than Evergrande was at its peak, has property developments in almost every province in China, and in October posted its biggest sales drop in at least six years. Growing concerns among potential buyers of its ability to complete projects threaten to exacerbate a cash crunch.
Speculation over Country Garden’s fate flared anew earlier this month after Reuters reported that China’s State Council instructed the government of Guangdong province to ask Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. to take a controlling stake. Ping An said it doesn’t hold any shares in Country Garden and has no plans to acquire it.
China’s property crisis has engulfed almost all of the largest developers, which have been struggling to repay debts and complete projects since the credit crunch emerged three years ago. Vanke, one of the country’s few remaining investment-grade builders, saw its dollar bonds plunge in recent weeks on the heels of Country Garden’s default. Vanke later received an unusually strong show of support from the local government.
END
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
GERMANY
All European nations and Scandinavian countries should be doing this:
(Jerusalem Post)
German Interior Ministry launches raids on Hamas supporters
The German Interior Ministry raided 15 locations throughout the country in order to enforce a ban on the activities of Hamas and the Samidoun – Palestinian Solidarity Network on Thursday, according to a press release by the ministry.
The locations were searched on orders from administrative courts in Berlin, Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, and Schleswig-Holstein.
Interior Minister Nancy Faeser stated that “We are continuing our consistent action against radical Islamists. With the bans on Hamas and Samidoun in Germany, we have sent a clear signal that we will not tolerate any glorification or support of the barbaric terror of Hamas against Israel.”
“Islamists and antisemites cannot and must not feel safe anywhere here. These extremists must reckon with the full rigor of the rule of law. We are keeping a close eye on the Islamist scene.”
END
HOLLAND
Neocon and globalist, Mark Rutte’s party defeated by conservative Geert Wilders. Wilders is a staunch conservative and anti Islam
(zerohedge)
It’s Official: Geert Wilders And Conservative Freedom Party Win Dutch Election
WEDNESDAY, NOV 22, 2023 – 06:43 PM
Update (1841ET): It’s official – Geert Wilders has won the Dutch elections and says he will lead the country’s next government.
“The hope of the Dutch people is that they will get their country back,” Wilders said following an exit poll published by state broadcaster NOS.
In his post-election speech, Wilders called for a coalition which would include the liberal VVD, which was until recently led by outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
Meanwhile, liberals are in fits over Wilders’ win – and in general, the shift towards populism across Europe. Here’s how Bloomberg framed it:
A surge in the number of refugees since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as the spiraling cost of food and energy, has fueled support for far-right groups across the European continent. Germany’s Alternative for Deutschland now has more support than any of the parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition, while Giorgia Meloni came from nowhere to take power last year in Italy.
The Dutch election campaign highlighted how immigration has polarized voter opinion and driven support toward Wilders, for whom the topic has been a core issue for decades. The 60-year-old is known for his anti-Islamic views and has lived under police protection since 2004 on account of death threats.
Of course, the outlet also notes that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban was “quick to congratulate him on his victory.”
Just remember folks, it’s not the will of the people reflected at the ballot box, it’s the “far right” winning a “shock victory.”
* * *
The polls were right! Dutch lawmaker Geert Wilders’ and his Freedom Party scored a marked victory in today’s Dutch elections, in which they are projected to win 35 seats, making them the largest group in parliament, Bloomberg reports (only with the ‘FaR RiGhT HiTleRy EviLdOeRz’ branding the MSM ascribes to anyone right of Mao).
And assuming the exit-polls hold up, Wilders’ prospects for forging a coalition government will hinge on his ability to reach across the aisle to parties which have already signaled maximum virtue and vowed never to work with him.
Wilders and his team hugged and cheered as the result was announced and sang along to the Rocky theme tune ‘Eye of the Tiger.’ Reporters who watched his campaign team celebrate at a crowded bar in Scheveningen near The Hague did so from behind glass.
The controversial politician benefited from the vacuum created by outgoing premier Mark Rutte’s decision to quit politics after 13 years in office — and from the refusal of Rutte’s successor as party leader, Dilan Yesilgoz-Zegerius, to rule out working with his party. Anti-migration sentiment of the kind Wilders has long-championed was a prominent issue on the campaign trail. -Bloomberg
In second place was the Left Alliance, headed by Franz Timmermans, who will likely score 26 seats, followed by VVC, which will likely receive 23 seats.
A shock new poll saw Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) enjoy a dramatic rise in support to put it on equal footing with the governing VVD…
Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) has experienced a dramatic rise in popularity among Dutch voters in a matter of days, rising from fourth place to now polling joint top with the governing VVD after an impressive performance in the latest television debate.
In the most recent survey conducted by pollster MDH, the right-wing populist party strengthened its electoral position by five percentage points to reach 26 percent, on par with the party of outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte, now led by Turkish-born Justice Minister Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius.
The increase in support appears to be at the expense of Pieter Omtzigt’s New Social Contract, the centrist party fighting its first national election, whose party’s popularity dropped by the same margin.
“The past week has seen the biggest changes in polling of this campaign. This directly relates to the fact that Geert Wilders was only involved in a debate on television for the first time on Nov. 12,” pollster Maurice de Hond explained.
The Dutch mainstream media has been accused of bias concerning the exposure it gives the more establishment parties in the country in comparison to those advocating a conservative, nationalist approach, particularly regarding immigration.
Earlier this week, data published by a diversity watchdog revealed that no politician from Wilders’ PVV or Thierry Baudet’s Forum for Democracy (FvD) has featured on the leading late-night talk show, Op1, since the fall of the Dutch government back in July, while mainstream parties seemingly deemed to be more palatable by producers, have been invited on dozens of times during the election period.
The SBS debate this week, of which de Hond says “Wilders clearly appeared to be the winner,” seems to have drastically shifted the odds in favor of Wilders’ party being a part of the next Dutch government, or at the very least having a considerable influence on the composition of any coalition government.
“In the penultimate poll, conducted five days before the elections among almost 7,000 respondents, we see this drastic shift: PVV increases by five seats and NSC decreases by five seats. That is a reinforcement of last week’s trend,” the pollster added.
In the last two weeks, the PVV has increased its estimated vote share by seven percentage points, while NSC has seen its support plummet by the same figure to its lowest recorded level since its recent formation. Support for the governing VVD has remained broadly consistent.
Dutch voters head to the polls on Nov. 22 to elect a new government after Mark Rutte’s coalition government collapsed primarily over disagreements relating to asylum and immigration policy.
The election falls under a backdrop of an asylum crisis that is rapidly getting out of control, evidenced by new figures from the Immigration and Naturalization Service (IND) this week which revealed that over 42,000 asylum seekers resident in the Netherlands are awaiting a decision on their asylum application, and the average waiting time for applications to be processed has exceeded a year.
Lawlessness in France fuelled by mass immigration has spread from the inner-city suburbs to the French countryside as the government continues to ignore the reality staring it in the face, Marine Le Pen has claimed.
In a recent interview with Valeurs Actuelles, the firebrand nationalist and former presidential candidate evidenced the spread of disorder among migrants by citing the tragic case of Thomas, a 16-year-old promising rugby player who was stabbed to death by a city gang who infiltrated a village’s winter ball at its local hall and stabbed several attendees in the early hours of Sunday morning.
“A kid died in circumstances that should never have existed,” Le Pen told the publication. “This tragedy corresponds to the feeling that many French people now feel: No one is safe anywhere.
“A new threshold has been crossed. We are witnessing an organized attack, emanating from a certain number of criminogenic suburbs in which there are armed “militias” carrying out raids,” she added.
The National Rally parliamentary party leader revealed she had spoken with many mayors of small towns who are now experiencing a dramatic rise in crime that was previously non-existent as violence and disorder spill out from urban to rural France.
“I know so many mayors of small towns who no longer organize village festivals. Some suffer from looting and external damage, which economically damages these modest communities. Others seriously fear physical attacks,” Le Pen said.
“All this suggests a form of method which is repeated: gratuitous attacks, cities which serve as rear bases and, in the end, the astonishment of the public authorities who have no response to provide except their indignation and their compassion.”
When pressed on the extent to which she believes the deterioration of French society is irreconcilable, Le Pen remained optimistic that France could be saved, but insisted that the country must be run by politicians who recognize the problem in order to do so.
“We are not there. What only affected the difficult neighborhoods of large cities in the 1980s spread to medium-sized towns, then to small towns. Now, this wave is reaching our villages. But I assure you: It is still too early for pessimism. Nothing has really been attempted by successive powers to stem the phenomenon,” she explained.
The conservative politician compared politicians to doctors who, if they refuse to see the symptoms and diagnose the problem, can never find the solution.
“Levels have been passed by delinquents and criminals thanks to the blindness, laxity, and lack of courage of those in power. If you don’t stop the criminals, they won’t stop,” she warned.
French citizens either growing up or living in the countryside used to feel protected from the reports coming from crime-ridden inner-city suburbs but “now realize that this is no longer true,” Le Pen claimed. “They sometimes feel like game.”
…
She called for regime change and a new approach from emotional reactions to the adoption of major laws that have a “profound impact.”
“Governing is not about stringing together media stunts or tinkering with circumstantial laws. If we aspire to govern like those who have governed us for decades, then let’s leave them in place!” she added.
A man of 40 years stabs 5 people including three young children who were protesting anti immigration.
The horror of a man, a foreigner, stabbing 3 children (with one of them a little girl in serious condition) , cannot be emphasized more. One adult is also in serious condition.
(Jerusalem Post)
Five people, including three children, injured in Dublin stabbing
Three young children have been taken to hospital following the attack.
By REUTERSNOVEMBER 23, 2023 17:05Updated: NOVEMBER 23, 2023 18:23
View of a vehicle as armed police officers stand outside the Special Criminal Court, where Gerry “The Monk” Hutch is appearing, charged with the murder of David Byrne at the Regency Hotel in Dublin in 2016, in Dublin, Ireland October 10, 2022.(photo credit: REUTERS/LORRAINE O’SULLIVAN)
Irish police said five people, including three young children, had been taken to hospital following a serious public order incident in Dublin city center on Thursday that local media reported as a stabbing.
Police said in a statement that they were following a definite line of inquiry and not looking for any other person at this time.
One girl has sustained serious injuries and the other two children are being treated for less serious injuries, police said. An adult female is also being treated for serious injuries and an adult male has less serious injuries, police added.
Local media reported that the people were stabbed on Dublin‘s Parnell Square, which is next to Dublin city’s main thoroughfare of O’Connell Street. Police said the scene remains sealed off.
Gardai (Police) block the road beside the Israeli embassy as demonstrators rally during a ”Stand with Palestine” march in solidarity with Gaza, in Dublin, Ireland, October 14, 2023. (credit: CLODAGH KILCOYNE/REUTERS)
The Irish Times reported that the chief suspect has been detained and had sustained wounds believed to be self-inflicted. It said early indications suggested a man tried to attack a number of young people and that passers-by intervened.
The motive for the attack, which occurred close to a school on the street, has not been established, the Irish Times added.
end
IRELAND/THURSDAY
Violent protests in Dublin after woman and children injured in knife attack
Crowd chanting anti-immigrant slogans clashes with police hours after stabbing incident outside school
Violent protests have flared in Dublin after a stabbing attack outside a school left three children injured.
A crowd chanting anti-immigrant slogans set a police car on fire and attacked several officers on Thursday night hours after a man stabbed a woman and three young children, leaving one in a critical condition.
Police detained a man in his 50s, who was also being treated for injuries, and said they were not seeking other suspects.
Authorities did not identify the man but anti-immigrant groups said he was a foreigner and gathered near the scene of the attack in Parnell Square, in the north of Ireland’s capital.
Sections of the crowd clashed with police, reportedly injuring several officers. Authorities suspended bus and tram services in parts of Dublin and called for calm.
The stabbing incident happened at about 1.30pm on Thursday outside Gaelscoil Choláiste Mhuire, a school at Parnell Square East, a bustling part of Dublin.
Police said a five-year-old girl, a woman in her 30s and a man in his 50s sustained serious injuries. The girl was receiving emergency medical treatment. A five-year-old boy and a six-year-old girl were treated for less severe injuries. The boy was discharged from hospital.
Supt Liam Geraghty told a press conference at Mountjoy garda station, which set up an incident room, that a man in his 50s who was detained was a “person of interest” and police were not looking for anyone else at this time. Geraghty appealed to anyone with information about the incident, including mobile phone footage of the attack and its aftermath, to come forward.
He praised the bystanders who intervened in what he said was a traumatic and dangerous incident.
The garda commissioner, Drew Harris, said it was too early to ascribe a motive. “An individual has been arrested, we’re not seeking anyone else in respect of this incident itself at this moment in time but the investigation will obviously unfold,” he said.
Riot police stands guard near the scene of the suspected stabbing, 23 November 2023. Photograph: Clodagh Kilcoyne/Reuters
Violent scenes broke out near the site of the attack on Thursday night as crowds of protesters gathered. A police car and a tram were set on fire and some protesters were involved in scuffles with gardaí, while others threw bottles at officers.
A helicopter hovered overhead as police in riot gear used shields and batons to clear a crowd down O’Connell Street, Dublin’s main thoroughfare. At the other end, by O’Connell Bridge, flames rose from the remains of a bus and a car.
People smashed store windows and set off fireworks, turning the night air acrid. Loud bangs echoed across the city. Whe asked why they were there, members of the crowd threatened journalists and claimed the media were not telling the truth about immigration.
Harris called for “calm heads” and warned against misinformation as he condemned the “disgraceful scenes” in Dublin. He said a “complete lunatic faction driven by far-right ideology” was behind the disorder and a number of garda vehicles had been damaged.
“We are drafting in resources to deal with that and that will be dealt with properly. I’ve given full direction to our resources here in respect of making arrests and bringing offenders to justice,” he said.
“It’s our responsibility to make sure that we police the streets, and part of that is we ask people to act responsibly and not to listen to the misinformation and rumour that is circulating on social media. The facts are being established, but the facts are still not clear on a lot of the rumour and the innuendo is being spread for malevolent purposes.”
The Irish justice minister, Helen McEntee, said: “The horrific attack today in Dublin city centre was an appalling crime that has shocked us all. However, the scenes we are witnessing this evening in our city centre cannot and will not be tolerated. A thuggish and manipulative element must not be allowed to use an appalling tragedy to wreak havoc.”
Gaelscoil Choláiste Mhuire is an Irish-medium primary school with 172 pupils based in a four-storey Georgian building on Parnell Square, a busy thoroughfare in Dublin’s north inner city.
The attack reportedly happened as pupils emerged from the school. Bystanders disarmed a man and pinned him to the ground, with several kicking him, one witness, Siobhan Kearney, told RTÉ. “People were trying to attack the man. So me and an American lady formed a ring around him saying we’d wait on the garda.”
Another man safeguarded a knife for police to retrieve, Kearney said. “Two children and the woman were taken back into the school where they were coming from. It was absolutely bedlam.”
Ambulances and other emergency services arrived within minutes. Streets were sealed off and the area was declared a crime scene.
Leo Varadkar expressed shock. The taoiseach said in a statement: “A number of people have been injured, some of them children. Our thoughts and our prayers go out to them and their families.”
Varadkar thanked the emergency services for what he said was a speedy response. “Gardaí have detained a suspect and are following a definite line of inquiry,” he said.
The Irish National Teachers’ Organisation expressed solidarity with the school community of Gaelscoil Choláiste Mhuire. “We are thinking of the children, their families and the school’s staff during this unimaginably difficult time,” it said.
end
IRELAND/FRIDAY
‘Irish People Are Being Attacked’ – Anti-Immigrant Riots Erupt After Dublin Stabbing Spree
FRIDAY, NOV 24, 2023 – 06:35 AM
A stabbing spree sparked riots in downtown Dublin on Thursday, as anti-immigration ruffians set vehicles ablaze, looted stores and fought police officers.
The trouble began around 1:40 pm local time in Parnell Square East in downtown Dublin, next to the Gaelscoil Choláiste Mhuire children’s school. The Irish police — or “garda” — say three young children and a woman in her 30s were wounded by a knife-wielding man in his 40s. Two were seriously wounded: a five-year-old girl and the adult woman.
The fiend attacked a group of children queued up as they were moving from one scheduled class to the next. “The kids were out walking. All of a sudden, one of them fell to the ground, then another fell to the ground, then another falls to the ground,” said a witness.
According to some reports, the wounded woman, a school worker, heroically rushed to defend the five-year-old girl, who was said to have been stabbed in the neck. According to a source anonymously quoted by The Irish Independent:
This all happened in a matter of seconds and after her very brave actions another two children suffered superficial stabbing injuries to their chest and shoulder in what was a frenzied incident. She defended those children with all her strength – all that she was doing was trying to protect those little kids and people in what was is a very built up area in the city centre saw what was happening when they passed the school.”
The attack ended when the villain stumbled to the ground and “a load of people jumped on him,” said the witness. He was taken to a hospital to be treated for facial injuries. His wounds were minimized by onlookers who formed a barrier around him to prevent a prolonged beating.
A Garda spokesman said the early indication was that the stabbing rampage was not an act of terrorism, and officials have yet to identify the attacker or his ethnicity. However, in the immediate wake of the attack, social media was full of posts declaring that the man is Algerian.
True or false, those rumors prompted angry Irish, some carrying Irish flags, to start raising hell in the vicinity of the attack and other areas too. “Irish people are being attacked by these scum,” a protester told AFP, reflecting the attitude of the mob. Chanting anti-immigration slogans, rioters set several vehicles on fire, including a police car, a double-decker bus and a light-rail train. They also attacked cops with fireworks and looted stores.
“Such rioting is almost unprecedented in Dublin,” reported Reuters. “There are no far right parties or politicians elected to parliament, but small anti-immigrant protests have grown in the last year.” At the peak of Thursday night’s violence, more than 400 Irish police were deployed, including many in riot gear.
Social media users shared video of police cars turning around after being chased by rioters throwing various objects:
Videos also circulated purporting to show a Holiday Inn that’s been used to house immigrants being vandalized and then set on fire:
Another video claims to depict rioters attacking a fire truck attempting to respond to the hotel fire:
The head of Irish police, Drew Harris, attributed the violence to a “lunatic, hooligan faction driven by a far-right ideology” and implied they were inflamed by online misinformation. Irish President Micheal Higgins echoed that sentiment. “That [the stabbings] would be used or abused by groups with an agenda that attacks the principle of social inclusion is reprehensible,” he said. “[A] thuggish and manipulative element must not be allowed to use an appalling tragedy to wreak havoc,” said Irish justice Minster Helen McEntee.
Ireland took in more than 141,000 immigrants in the 12 months ending in April, the most in 16 years. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ireland has allowed 100,000 Ukrainians into the country, one of the highest per-capita rates in the European Union.
We should soon learn more about the perpetrator of the stabbings. If he were not an immigrant, you’d think authorities would have raced to say so — to throw some water on the fiery and not-so-peaceful rioting. Stay tuned…
END
BELGIUM
(Jerusalem Post)
85 graves defaced in Belgium.
(Jerusalem Post) BREAKING NEWS
Some 85 Jewish graves defaced in antisemitic attack on Belgium cemetery
Jewish graves in the Belgium town of Charleroi were defaced in an antisemitic attack on the night of November 21, according to the town’s Mayor Paul Magnette.
The 85 graves had Stars of Davids stolen.
Magnette said that the police were investigating to establish the circumstances of this damage.
A SCREEN GRAB of a video released by the IDF this week shows security camera footage of Hamas terrorists forcibly bringing in a hostage from Israel into Shifa Hospital on October 7(photo credit: IDF/Reuters)
The IDF and the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) around 2:30 p.m. Thursday afternoon finally admitted to having arrested the director of Shifa Hospital, which has been at the center of media narrative battles between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
First, reports in the Palestinian and Hebrew media about his arrest surfaced already much earlier Thursday morning.
Questioned repeatedly earlier in the morning about why he had been arrested and why no official announcement had gone out, Israeli and IDF officials’ responses alternated from surprise at the event to a promise that an announcement would go out soon.
However, even the 2:30 p.m. announcement did not make any direct charges against the Shifa chief.
Rather, the announcement said that he had been arrested and brought to the Shin Bet for interrogation after significant testimony and video evidence from others that Shifa had been used as a command center for Hamas during the director’s tenure.
Israeli soldiers inspect the Al Shifa hospital complex, amid their ground operation against Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in Gaza City, November 15, 2023 (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
The statement stated, “the terror group Hamas utilized many resources, including electricity in order to strengthen its tunnels which it built under the hospital. In addition, Hamas kept military items stored in the hospital and in its immediate surroundings.”
In addition, the statement read that after the October 7 Hamas mass terror attack on Israel’s South, the terror group “used the hospital as a refuge for its terror forces and even brought Israeli hostages to there who were kidnapped during the day of slaughter. A pathology report confirmed that soldier Noa Marciano was murdered on the grounds of Shifa Hospital.”Advertisement
Next, the statement said vaguely that, “a decision regarding his detention would be made in conjunction with the findings of the investigation regarding his involvement with the hospital’s connection to terror.”
There are a number of possible scenarios about how this could play out.
If Israel has direct Palestinian witness testimony or videographic evidence to incriminate the director, he could actually be brought to trial before special civilian courts or Israeli military courts on those charges and could be potentially sentenced to prison time in Israel.
Alternatively, Israel may not have such direct incriminating evidence, and its evidence may be more ambiguous, such as the idea that it would be impossible for any reasonable director to be completely oblivious to the sheer volume of uses by Hamas of his hospital.
In this case, it might still try to mount a case for some kind of easier to prove more minor charge, such as aiding and abetting terrorism without even being a member of a terror group.
Yet another possibility is that the Shin Bet hopes to scare him into providing them intelligence information to more quickly uncover the remaining aspects of Hamas’s concealed presence at Shifa, in which case if he cooperates, he may be released with no charges.
Even if a case is brought against him, he could always defend against any conviction by claiming his life was under threat and that any passive cooperation he provided to Hamas was under coercion and duress, or was for the benefit of his patients, who Hamas might otherwise kill.
This could make him difficult to convict.
In all scenarios, detaining him will be complex globally, as generally democracies do not detain senior medical staff who are not their citizens.
Hamas immediately condemned the arrest of the director of the hospital, saying “We see this move by Israel as nothing less than despicable, lacking any sense of humanity and morals. It is also a flagrant violation of international norms and charters, given obligations to ensure that medical personnel are never harmed, including in times of war.”
“We call on international bodies, including the International Committee of the Red Cross and the World Health Organization (WHO), with which Dr. Muhammad was in contact to evacuate the remaining patients and wounded from Al-Shifa Hospital, to exert pressure on the Israeli occupation army to secure his release, along with the medical personnel who were arrested simply for continuing to fulfill their humanitarian duty.”
Since 2014, top Israeli defense officials have repeatedly stated that top Hamas officials spent the 2014 Gaza conflict hiding in tunnels under Shifa Hospital and the complex has since been turned into a massive underground military installation.
In recent days, the IDF has published footage showing rooms and tunnels found under the hospital, as well as weapons found in the facility.
Hostages held in Shifa hospital
Surveillance camera footage retrieved from the hospital showed at least two hostages being brought by armed individuals into the hospital on October 7, including one who was being dragged by his head through the hospital.
IDF R.-Adm. Daniel Hagari also revealed recently that intelligence has shown that Israeli hostage, Noa Marciano, was killed in Shifa.
The IDF did not comment on reports that some small number of other medical staff were arrested.
end
Israel rejects Hamas ceasefire demand to leave Gaza’s Shifa – report
IDF Spokesperson R.-Adm. Daniel Hagari on Thursday evening noted that no aspect of the hostage deal is set in stone “until it happens…it is subject to changes,” he said in a daily briefing.
Israeli soldiers stand near the opening to a tunnel at Al Shifa Hospital compound in Gaza City, November 22, 2023(photo credit: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun)
Israel vehemently rejected a Hamas demand for Israeli forces to retreat and withdraw from the Shifa Hospital in Gaza, N12 reported on Thursday.
As per the report, the Palestinian terrorist group’s request came as a last-minute demand in the Qatar-mediated deal to release some 13 hostages for four days of ceasefire in the Strip.
IDF Spokesperson R.-Adm. Daniel Hagari on Thursday evening noted that no aspect of the hostage deal is set in stone “until it happens…it is subject to changes,” he said in a daily briefing.
“We have difficult days of grief and happiness ahead of us,” Hagari said. “We embarked on a long journey and we have targets to achieve – destroy Hamas, bring the hostages home, and bring order to the region and our borders.”
The spokesperson stressed that, as part of the agreement, Israeli forces will remain inside the ceasefire line marked inside the Gaza Strip. The IDF will have freedom of movement in that area for the duration of the ceasefire, he added.
A SCREEN GRAB of a video released by the IDF this week shows security camera footage of Hamas terrorists forcibly bringing in a hostage from Israel into Shifa Hospital on October 7 (credit: IDF/Reuters)
The IDF’s 401st Brigade fought in the ‘Grad Valley,’ on the outskirts of Jabaliya, and uncovered underground infrastructure and weapons under children’s sleeping beds, according to an IDF press release on Thursday.
The “Grad Valley” is an area from which a wide range of anti-aircraft fire was fired at Israeli territory during the fighting, four significant tunnel shafts were located at great depth.
The main hospital in Gaza’s central city of Deir al-Balah says it has received 128 people dead on arrival after an Israeli bombardment late Tuesday and early Wednesday in the city. (Nov. 22) (AP video: Abd Al Kareem Hana, Production: Wafaa Shurafa)
end
BREAKING NEWS
IDF kills senior Hamas naval commander in Khan Yunis
The IDF and the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) announced on Thursday that they had eliminated the commander of the Hamas naval force of Khan Yunis.
The IDF, guided by the intelligence of the Navy, the Military Intelligence Directorate, and the Shin Bet, using fighter jets, eliminated Omar Abu Jallal, the commander of the Hamas naval force in Khan Yunis, and another terrorist from the organization’s naval force.
Omar Abu Jallal was a senior commander in the Hamas naval force and was involved in a number of naval attacks that were thwarted by the IDF.
Among other things, under the direction of the Navy’s intelligence ship, weapons warehouses, tunnel sites near the coast, training posts, and observation posts of the terrorist organization Hamas were located and destroyed.
end
Hamas commander killed ahead of truce; Gallant: War will resume for at least 2 months
IDF to hold northern Gaza positions during pause in fighting; Nahal troops in Jabaliya find Hamas tunnel in mosque, rocket launchers next to homes; Shifa Hospital director detained
The Israel Defense Forces said Thursday night it had killed the commander of Hamas’s naval forces in Khan Younis in an airstrike in the Gaza Strip, hours before the expected start of a temporary pause in the war amid a hostage release deal.
The army said Amar Abu Jalalah was killed along with another member of the Hamas naval forces. It said Jalalah was “a senior operative in Hamas’s naval forces and was involved in directing several terror attacks by sea that were thwarted.”
Ahead of the slated lull in fighting, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Thursday that once the “short” temporary truce with Hamas ends, the military campaign would resume “with intensity” for at least two more months.
“What you will see in the coming days is first the release of hostages. This respite will be short,” Gallant told troops of the Navy’s Shayetet 13 elite commando unit. “What is required of you in this respite is to organize, get ready, investigate, resupply arms, and get ready to continue.”
“There will be a continuation, because we need to complete the victory and create the impetus for the next groups of hostages, who will only come back as a result of pressure,” he added.
The hostage release deal, which was mediated by Qatar and the US, is set to begin Friday. It would see Hamas release at least 50 Israeli women and children it took hostage on October 7, over the course of four days, in exchange for a lull in the fighting during those four days and the release of 150 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel for terror offenses, all of them women or minors.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi echoed Gallant’s comments earlier in the day, saying that the military is “not ending the war.”
“We are trying to connect the goals of the war, so that the pressure from the ground operation brings about the ability to also achieve the [other] goal of this war to create the conditions for the release of the abducted hostages,” Halevi told commanders during a visit to Gaza.
“We are not ending the war. We will continue until we are victorious, going forward and continuing in other Hamas areas,” he added.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi speaks with troops in the Gaza Strip, November 21, 2023. (Israel Defense Forces)
The comments came hours after a spokesperson for Qatar’s foreign ministry confirmed that the temporary truce between Israel and Hamas will go into effect Friday at 7 a.m. The first group of 13 Israeli hostages will be freed on Friday at 4 p.m.
During the temporary ceasefire, IDF troops will hold their positions inside the Gaza Strip, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari confirmed Thursday evening. “Taking control of northern Gaza is the first stage of a long war, and we’re preparing for the coming stages,” he said.
Hagari also warned that there may be unexpected developments amid the pause, and that Hamas will attempt to use “psychological terror” against the Israeli public.
Meanwhile Thursday, Nahal Brigade troops uncovered a Hamas tunnel inside a mosque and rocket launchers adjacent to homes during operations in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya camp. The IDF said that Nahal troops battled Hamas operatives on the outskirts of Jabaliya.
This image released by the IDF on November 23, 2023, shows a Hamas tunnel entrance inside a mosque in northern Gaza’s Jabaliya. (Israel Defense Forces)
In the area, the IDF said troops found six tunnel shafts, including one in a mosque. A number of rocket launchers and weapons were also found in an orchard next to the mosque and civilian sites, including homes.
Also in Jabaliya, soldiers from the 401st Brigade located four “significant” tunnels dug deep underground, as well as a stash of weapons hidden under the beds of a senior Hamas member’s kids and in closets.
The tunnels were connected to an electricity network, and the military confirmed that they were used by Hamas. One of them was found in a search of the home of another senior member of the terror group. At the home of the first official, in addition to weapons, troops located documents and battle plans, which were transferred to intelligence forces for examination.
The troops also found shafts used to launch rockets, alongside long-range rockets of the type used to target central Israel.
Also Thursday, the IDF released new footage of the elite Egoz unit operating in Gaza City’s Shati camp, showing targeted strikes along with captured Hamas hideouts and seized weapons and military equipment.
As IDF troops continued to battle Hamas gunmen across the Strip, the director of Shifa Hospital was detained on suspicion of enabling the hospital to be used by Hamas as an operations center. Several other senior hospital officials were also detained.
A joint statement issued by the IDF and Shin Bet said Mohammad Abu Salmiya had been arrested and was being interrogated on suspicion of enabling the hospital to be used by Hamas as an operations center.
The Israeli statement noted that “considerable evidence was revealed that the hospital, under his direct management, served as a headquarters of the terrorist organization Hamas,” adding that the terror group used many resources from the hospital, including electricity, to maintain a tunnel system under the facility.
An image grab from a file handout video released by the Hamas Media Office shows doctor Mohammad Abu Salmiya, director of Shifa hospital in Gaza City, giving a press briefing on November 1, 2023, regarding the repercussions of fuel shortages on the hospital. (AFP Photo/HO/Hamas Media Office)
Some 10 kilometers north of Shifa at the Indonesian Hospital, an official with the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry said that Israel had ordered a complete evacuation.
Dr. Munir al-Boursh, an official inside the facility, told Al Jazeera television that hospital officials were trying to organize buses to evacuate some 200 patients, including older adults and children with burn injuries.
Fighting has raged outside the hospital for days, and hundreds of people have already been evacuated to the south.
Shifa Hospital has been a major focus of the Israeli operation against Hamas in Gaza, which was triggered on October 7 when some 3,000 terrorists stormed the border with Israel and unleashed an unprecedented attack on the country’s southern communities, killing at least 1,200 people, most of them civilians, and taking some 240 hostages.
Israeli soldiers stand outside Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, November 22, 2023. (AP/Victor R. Caivano)
In response, Israel vowed to eliminate Hamas from Gaza and end the group’s 15-year rule, launching an aerial campaign and subsequent ground offensive to meet its goal.
Since the start of the war, Israel has presented evidence to back up the long-standing allegations that Hamas is using Shifa as a major operational hub and command center. The US has corroborated the evidence presented by Israel.
end
FRIDAY
Hamas hostage deal – 24 women, 15 teenage boys to be freed from Israeli jails
The inmates, all of them from the West Bank or Jerusalem, will be handed over to the International Committee of the Red Cross.
By REUTERSNOVEMBER 24, 2023 10:49Updated: NOVEMBER 24, 2023 11:03
A woman holds a picture of a Palestinian prisoner during a protest in solidarity with Gaza and Palestinian prisoners in the Israeli jails, November 14, 2023(photo credit: REUTERS/MUSSA QAWASMA)
Israel will on Friday release 39 Palestinian prisoners, among them 24 women and 15 teenage males, in the West Bank in exchange for 13 hostages due to be freed from the Gaza Strip by Hamas, a Palestinian official said.The inmates, all of them from the West Bank or Jerusalem, will be handed over to the International Committee of the Red Cross at Israel’s Ofer military jail around 4 p.m., said Qadura Fares, Palestinian commissioner for prisoners.
That would coincide with the planned handover at the Gaza-Egypt border of 13 women and children who were among some 240 people taken hostage by Hamas terrorists during a deadly Oct. 7 rampage in southern Israel.
People walk next to pictures of civilians held hostage by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, in Jerusalem, November 22, 2023 (credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH 90)
“After the Red Cross receives the (Palestinian) prisoners, the ones from Jerusalem will go to Jerusalem and the ones from the West Bank will gather in Betunia municipal council where their families will be waiting,” Fares told Reuters.
The prisoner release was part of an Israeli-Hamas ceasefire that began at 7 a.m. and appeared to be holding shakily with no major reports of bombings, artillery strikes or rocket attacks, although both sides were accused of violations
.END
After Iran mediates, 23 Thai hostages will be set free unconditionally
(Jerusalem Post)
Iran mediates release of 23 Thai hostages from Hamas captivity – report
Hamas will release 23 Thai hostages unconditionally, mediated by Iran, according to a report by Al-Araby Al-Jadeed from late on Thursday.
This is a developing story.
end
The thirteen hostages are now safely back in Israel
(zerohedge0
13 Israeli Hostages, 12 Thai Nationals Freed As Gaza Sees First Day Without Fighting In Seven Weeks
FRIDAY, NOV 24, 2023 – 11:00 AM
After going into effect Friday morning, the temporary truce between Israel and Hamas has held throughout the day, leading to the release of 25 total hostages from Hamas captivity.
Among the 25 are 12 Thai hostages and 13 Israeli hostages. They were handed over to the Red Cross where they were taken into Egypt and are en route to Israel. A Hamas source has been quoted as saying, “This is the first group under the agreement.”
The first group released were the Thai hostages, comprising foreign workers who had been taken in the Oct.7 Hamas terror raids on southern Israel. Thailand Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has confirmed their release and said that embassy officials were en route to pick them up.
The release of Palestinians from Israeli prisons are another key feature of the deal, as well as the ability of humanitarian aid to flow into Gaza. Some 150 aid and fuel trucks have reportedly entered the Strip from Egypt on Friday.
This first day of the four day truce will see 39 Palestinian prisoners go free. So far it’s been the longest pause in fighting after seven weeks of intense conflict by air and land. According to more details via NY Times, there are children included in the prisoner swap:
The cease-fire deal, brokered by Qatar in weeks of talks, calls for Hamas to return 50 of the women and children taken hostage during its Oct. 7 attacks in Israel, and for Israel to release 150 imprisoned Palestinian women and teenagers. The exchange would occur in phases across the four days of the cease-fire. Read more about the deal.
In Israel, family members of hostages were hopeful they would soon see their loved ones. Among the roughly 240 people abducted to Gaza is a girl who turned 4 on Friday, whose parents were slain in the Hamas attacks.
On the Palestinian side a big festive scene is gearing up for their return. Al Jazeera describes of a crowd gathering at Ofer Prison, which is near Ramallah in the West Bank:
There are hundreds if not thousands of people who have gathered on a hill overlooking the Ofer Prison in expectation of these 39 women and minors that are going to be – in theory – brought here by the Israelis on buses.
We’ve seen at least one bus leave one of those jails in northern Israel a few hours ago.
People have begun to light bonfires here, very excited about this prisoner-captive swap.
Hamas is calling for a “massive reception” to greet freed Palestinians in the West Bank.
However, some are said to still be skeptical that it will happen. But the Israeli Broadcasting Authority has confirmed that the Israeli group of released hostages are now in Egypt, currently meeting and being examined by Israel’s Shin Bet domestic intelligence agency, on the other side of the Rafah crossing.
The truce is still tenuous and uncertainty looms amid the hopeful signs – given the number of statements by Israeli officials vowing this won’t deter them from eradicating Hamas.
end
Who are the Israeli hostages released by Hamas on Friday?
They are among the 13 Israeli hostages released from Hamas captivity on November 24, 2023.
By GADI ZAIGNOVEMBER 24, 2023 18:37Updated: NOVEMBER 24, 2023 19:53
These are the identities of the 13 Israelis that were released from Hamas captivity on Friday.
Adina Moshe
Adina Moshe was the first Israeli hostage identified to be released by Hamas on Friday.
Moshe, 72, was kidnapped to Gaza on October 7 from her home in Kibbutz Nir Oz, after the terrorists murdered her husband Said Moshe.
She is the mother of four children: Maya, Yael, Sashon and Amos. She will be back with her family and able to continue raising some of her grandchildren who live in the kibbutz, and will return to her hobbies: cooking, growing plants and reading books.
Asher tracked Doron’s phone to a location in Gaza and discovered a video showing the family members being driven into Gaza on a pickup truck. Asher, who has been trying to leverage his family’s German citizenship, called it “the battle of his life” and sought international involvement, including reaching out to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for help.
(L-R) Adina Moshe and Margalit Mozes are among the first Israeli hostages released from Hamas captivity on November 24, 2023. (credit: Hostage and Missing Families Forum)
Margalit Moses
Margalit Moses, 78, is recovering from cancer, and is an avid lover of nature and especially birds. Loves nature and trips, despite her poor health. Last summer she was on a cruise in northern Norway. And the winter, plans to travel to Mozambique.Advertisement
Margalit loves to knit, knits vests and sweaters for her grandchildren all the time.
Her former husband, Gadi Moses, was was also abducted by Hamas. Both of them continued to reside in the kibbutz, a short distance from each other. Gadi was at his home with his partner, the aforementioned Efrat Katz, who was tragically killed, as well as her daughter Doron Katz Asher and her two daughters, Aviv and Raz, who were also kidnapped and have now been released
Emilia and Danielle Aloni
Danielle Aloni and her 6-year-old daughter Emelia were kidnapped on October 7 during their visit in Kibbutz Nir Oz to Danielle’s sister, Sharon Aloni-Kunyo (who was kidnapped along with her 3-year-old twins Emma and Yuli, together with their father David Kunyo).
Danielle sent her last message to her family on October 7 and informed them that they have terrorists at home and she is afraid that they will not survive. Daniel and Amelia are on their way to Israel.
Emilia (L) and Danielle Aloni (R) are among the first Israelis to be released from Hamas captivity on November 24, 2023. (credit: Hostage and Missing Families Forum)
The Munder family: Ruthie, Keren, and Ohad
The Munder family issued a statement on their relatives’ release: “This is a defining day in our lives, we are very excited about the return of Ruthie, Keren and Ohad, and we still can’t digest what we are going through.
“Most of all, we pray and wish for the return alive and soon of our beloved Avraham Munder, 78, and the rest of the hostages.”
Ohad celebrated his 9th birthday while being held under Hamas captivity. He is the only grandchild of Ruthie and Avraham. He and his mother Keren had traveled to Kibbutz Nir Oz to spend the Simchat Torah holiday with his grandparents. They were awakened by explosions and sirens, and Keren informed her partner, Avi, about gunshots in the kibbutz and reports of a terrorist infiltration.
Yaffa Adar
Yaffa Adar, 85 from Kibbutz Nir Oz, was seen in video footage in Gaza wrapped in a blanket on a golf cart. Yaffa’s family believes she understood the gravity of the situation, but her health is at risk due to the lack of access to her medication. They describe her as the glue that held their family together, a woman who embraced life with a youthful spirit.
Hannah Perry
Hannah Perry, 79 from Kibbutz Nirim, has a son, Nadav, who was also kidnapped and still remains in Hamas captivity. Her other son, Roee, was tragically killed on October 7.
Hannah Katzir
During the attack in Kibbutz Nir Oz, Katzir and and her husband, Avraham ‘Rami’ Katzir, were in their home. Hannah told her daughter they were in a sealed room, but her husband was killed and she had gone missing on October 7.
Their son, Elad Katzir, who lives in Nir Oz as well, informed his sister Carmit that terrorists had entered his home but hasn’t been heard from since. Elad is known for his dedication to the kibbutz and supporting efforts to release captive soldiers from Gaza.
Hannah Katzir had been falsely claimed by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad to have been killed on Tuesday.
Government reactions
The Prime Minister’s Office commented on their release, stating that: “The Israeli government embraces our citizens returning home and we are committed to the return of all hostages and missing persons. Our citizens underwent an initial medical examination and their families were informed by appointed officials that they are back.”
Israel President Isaac Herzog stated that “In the name of the entire nation, I thank all those who engage in the holy work of bringing our sons and daughters home. It is important to remember that the job is not over until all the hostages return to Israel.”
AP
Israel unveils what it claims is a major Hamas militant hideout beneath Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital
BY VICTOR CAIVANO
Updated 11:55 PM EST, November 22, 2023
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GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip (AP) — The Israeli military on Wednesday unveiled what it claimed was a Hamas military facility under Gaza’s largest hospital, showing what appeared to be a subterranean dormitory to a group of foreign journalists who were given a rare glimpse inside the besieged enclave.
Dozens of soldiers escorted journalists through a narrow stone tunnel — which the military said stretched 150 meters (164 yards) — to a series of underground bunkers beneath Shifa Hospital in a shattered Gaza City.
The living quarters, located at the end of the tunnel, had an air conditioner, kitchen, bathroom and pair of metal cots in a room fashioned from rusty white tile. They appeared to be out of use.
Since Israel declared war against Hamas on Oct. 7, it has repeatedly accused the Islamic militant group of using Gaza’s hospitals as cover for military use. It has paid special attention to Shifa, saying Hamas has hidden command centers and bunkers underneath the hospital’s sprawling grounds.
Israel has not yet unveiled this purported center, but the military portrayed the underground hideout as its most significant discovery yet. Hamas and the hospital administration have denied Israel’s accusation
UPDATES INSTRUCTIONS – Israeli soldiers show the media an underground tunnel found underneath Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, Wednesday, Nov. 22, 2023. Israel says that Hamas militants sought cover on the grounds of the hospital and used the tunnel for military purposes. (AP Photo/Victor R. Caivano)
“Shifa Hospital is the hugest hospital in Gaza, and it’s also the hugest terror facility of Hamas,” said Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military’s chief spokesperson, as bombardment thundered nearby. “Hamas battalion commanders were conducting command and control, firing rockets from here.”
The Associated Press could not independently verify Hagari’s claims.
The AP was allowed access to Gaza on the condition that its journalist stay with the Israeli military convoy throughout the four-hour tour and submit all material to a military censor ahead of publication. There is no other way for foreign journalists to currently access the enclave.
UPDATES INSTRUCTIONS – An Israeli soldier stands in an underground tunnel found underneath Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, Wednesday, Nov. 22, 2023. Israel says that Hamas militants sought cover on the grounds of the hospital and used the tunnel for military purposes. (AP Photo/Victor R. Caivano)
The war was triggered by Hamas’ Oct. 7 cross-border attack that killed some 1,200 people and took 240 others hostage. Israel’s intense aerial campaign and devastating ground invasion have leveled entire neighborhoods, and well over 11,000 Palestinians have been killed in the fighting, according to health officials in the Hamas-ruled territory.
Bent on toppling Gaza’s Hamas rulers, Israel describes the heavy toll as the inevitable cost of fighting militants who use civilians as human shields and fire rockets from densely populated neighborhoods. Israel says at least some of the hostages were brought to Shifa.
On Wednesday, Israeli soldiers showed the foreign journalists weaponry they said they found at Shifa, including dozens of AK-47 assault rifles, 20 grenades and several drones. Hagari said the cache was just a small sample.
The Israeli military has plowed through northern Gaza over the past month, leaving a trail of destruction in its effort to bomb Hamas’ tunnel network and other targets. Hamas fighters have used the underground network to ambush Israeli troops. In addition to the tunnel it showed journalists, the army says it had uncovered another two shafts near Shifa.
UPDATES INSTRUCTIONS – Israeli soldiers stand outside Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, Wednesday, Nov. 22, 2023. Israel says that Hamas militants sought cover on the grounds of the hospital and used the tunnel for military purposes. (AP Photo/Victor R. Caivano)
Although the trip was tightly controlled by the Israeli army, journalists could still catch glimpses of life in Gaza. From outside the hospital gates, at least a couple dozen exhausted Palestinians could be seen gathering their belongings, apparently ahead of an evacuation.
Hundreds of patients and doctors remain stranded at the besieged hospital. Thousands more who had been sheltering in its courtyard fled south last week as Israeli tanks drew close and fighting raged.
At one point, several Palestinians leaning out of a window at Shifa locked eyes with journalists. One man gave a thumbs-up. Others started to yell. Israeli soldiers shepherded the journalists away.
What remained on Gaza City’s ghostly streets were the ruins of collapsed buildings, spewing rubble onto streets. The facade of one abandoned building had been blown off, revealing furnished living rooms, glassware in cabinets somehow intact, mirrors still mounted on walls. Fortified bulldozers clawed through sand and gravel to clear the way for more tanks.
UPDATES INSTRUCTIONS – Israeli soldiers show the media an underground tunnel found underneath Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, Wednesday, Nov. 22, 2023. Israel says that Hamas militants sought cover on the grounds of the hospital and used the tunnel for military purposes. (AP Photo/Victor R. Caivano)
About 20 Israeli soldiers sat on the side of a road. They smiled and posed for the journalists’ cameras.
“There’s a great morale. Everyone’s ready to do what has to be done. Everyone’s ready to fight for the country,” said Staff Sgt. Oren, an Israeli soldier who said he is originally from Los Angeles. “Even when it’s hard, you sit with your friends and joke around a little bit. At the end of the day, you know why you’re here.”
The city’s coastal promenade that once bustled with cafes and coffee shops was gone. Instead, there was rubble and a single lifeguard hut. Recent bombing sent black plumes rising into the sky. Gunbattles could be heard rattling in the distance.
In the midst of the devastation, a line of Palestinian evacuees could be seen carrying their bags and other belongings. As the journalists in the Israeli army convoy passed by, they held their ID cards up to the armored personnel carriers. Some of them waved white flags.
Lt Col Richard Hecht
end
LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH/ISRAEL
Times of Israel
Hezbollah hits Israel with heavy rocket barrages, anti-tank missile attacks
Some 80 rockets fired by terror groups at Israel on Thursday; IDF strikes rocket launchers, terror cells and infrastructure in response
Smoke rises in southern Lebanon after IDF strikes targets in the country following Hezbollah attacks on Israel, November 23, 2023. (Ayal Margolin/Flash90)
Hezbollah launched dozens of rockets at northern Israel on Thursday in one of the largest barrages fired from Lebanon since October 7, sending thousands of people in northern towns and communities rushing to bomb shelters.
In one salvo after midday, the IDF said some 35 rockets launched from Lebanon crossed the border into Israel. Hezbollah claimed responsibility, and said it had launched 48 rockets at an army base near Safed.
Hezbollah also took responsibility for several anti-tank guided missile and mortar attacks at different targets in northern Israel, including a strike against Kibbutz Menara in the Upper Galilee that caused damage to some buildings, Army Radio reported.
At least 80 rockets, missiles, and mortars were fired from Lebanon at northern Israel by mid-afternoon.
The IDF said it used aircraft and Iron Sting guided mortars to strike the rocket launchers in response to the initial barrages, and later hit “terrorist infrastructure” and rocket launch sites in Lebanon with airstrikes by fighter jets and attack helicopters as a result of the ongoing attacks
Separately, a drone, helicopter, and tanks struck a Hezbollah cell that fired an anti-tank missile at the Biranit base, the IDF adds.
The intense Hezbollah attacks against Israel on Thursday came after the IDF killed five Hezbollah fighters late Wednesday night, including the son of a Hezbollah member of parliament and a commander in Hezbollah’s Radwan commando force.
Puffs of smoke are seen as rockets launched from Lebanon into Northern Israel are intercepted by an anti-missile system, as seen from the northern Israeli city of Tzfat, November 23, 2023. (David Cohen/Flash90)
Foreign Minister Eli Cohen has spoken out on two occasions this week against Hezbollah’s ongoing attacks against Israel, telling the UN Security Council on Tuesday that Hezbollah must be disarmed and removed from southern Lebanon to avoid an escalation of the current war. He made similar comments to foreign journalists on Wednesday.
Since the Israel-Hamas war began on October 7, when thousands of terrorists massacred some 1,200 people in Israel and took some 240 hostages, Israel’s northern front on the border with Lebanon has also been heating up. Daily exchanges of fire and attacks, with Hezbollah, Hamas and other terror groups, are raising fears of a broader conflagration.
Since the cross-border exchanges began, 107 people have been killed on the Lebanese side, according to an AFP tally. The toll also includes at least 14 civilians, three of them journalists.
Hezbollah announced on Wednesday the death of its 79th fighter killed since the war’s outbreak. Seven Hezbollah members have also been killed in Syria.
On the Israeli side, six soldiers and three civilians have been killed.
Hezbollah announced Wednesday that it will participate in the four-day truce that is expected to begin in Gaza on Friday, even though it was not part of the negotiations between Israel and Hamas via the US and Qatar, host to Hamas’s political leadership in Doha.
In comments later Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had made no lull commitments regarding the northern border, and that Hezbollah would be judged “by its actions” rather than anything it said.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, on a visit to Beirut, warned in an interview that if the Hamas-Israel pause begins but “does not continue… the conditions in the region will not remain the same as before the ceasefire and the scope of the war will expand.”
end
This is the best explanation as to where we stand right now: the hostage deal even if it fails shows the complete desperation of Hamas
(TIMES OF ISRAEL)
Hostage deal, even if it fails, shows Hamas’s desperation
The exchange rate for an Israeli hostage is no longer measured in hundreds of released prisoners but in moments of reprieve from looming destruction
IDF troops operate inside Gaza during the ongoing ground offensive against Hamas, in a picture released November 22, 2023. (IDF Spokesman)
The families of Israeli hostages have spent most of the past seven weeks in a kind of limbo, torn between competing arguments for how best to seek the release of their loved ones.Would pressure on the Israeli government work? Could foreign governments influence Hamas? What does the ground war mean for their loved ones’ chances of survival?With a deal apparently nearing completion that could release dozens of abducted children and their mothers, many of their families have suddenly gone silent. Hamas, they reason, will try to hold on to children whose families prove most effective in pressuring the Israeli government.If last week every family tried to draw attention to their missing child, now the race is on to make their child forgettable.It’s hard to imagine the torment of such a moment.To families trapped in such a terrible place, nothing about the announced deal feels like an Israeli victory.Families of Israelis held hostage in Gaza rally outside the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem, November 18, 2023.
(Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
Hamas stumbles
Yet it’s hard to imagine a clearer signal of Hamas’s desperation than the deal agreed to by the Israeli government late Tuesday. In the Shalit prisoner exchange in 2011, the exchange rate was 1,100 Palestinian prisoners, including mass murderers sentenced to life terms, for a single Israeli soldier.At the time, most Israelis supported the deal and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then-defense minister Ehud Barak made sure to stand at Cpl. Gilad Shalit’s side as he set foot back on Israeli soil.Twelve years later, after many of the terrorists released in that exchange were the ones who planned and executed the October 7 massacre, the calculus has changed.Hamas abducted too many, including babies and ailing grandmothers, and did so in such cruel ways that the old logic of prisoner exchanges has been forever upended in the Israeli psyche.Then-IDF chief Benny Gantz embraces IDF Cpl. Gilad Shalit on the day of his release from Hamas captivity, October 18, 2011, as then-defense minister Ehud Barak and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu look on. (IDF Spokesperson/Flash90)As any aspiring gangster knows, there’s a tipping point to extortion when the cost of avoiding violence rises past the cost of the violence itself, when the victim’s incentives flip from payment to vengeful defiance.At the start of the war, Hamas and Islamic Jihad started to trickle out hostages in ways that showed they didn’t quite grasp the change that had come over Israelis. They tried to delay the ground incursion by promising to release two hostages every few days.But Israel ignored the gambit, and every ensuing attempt to dangle hostages before it. It launched the ground incursion with no more than a mention of the Israelis held in Gaza.
The new deal
And as the IDF advanced, photos began to leak of soldiers posing in the main centers of Hamas rule, including the parliament building and various headquarters, before demolishing these symbolic buildings.Troops from the IDF’s Golani Brigade inside Gaza’s parliament building in Gaza City, after capturing the site, on November 13, 2023. (Social media; used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law)Some foreign observers were mystified at the practice. Critics complained of “wanton” destruction. But Hamas saw and understood. When Israel telegraphed for three long weeks that it was preparing to enter Shifa Hospital, it was giving the enemy time to escape. It didn’t want a bloody battle in the hallways of a hospital. But it did want to enter that hospital and show Hamas there are no safe places anywhere in Gaza. And Hamas saw and understood.This is key to understanding the war. Israel isn’t speaking to the West. Its leadership registers Western discourse as a second-tier concern. Its message is for Hamas, and this message is the strategic heart of the war effort: There is nowhere in Gaza we won’t go, no stone or tunnel or building we won’t overturn in pursuit of you. None of the tactics that once kept you safe apply anymore.Tens of thousands of Hamas fighters have now been underground for nearly seven weeks. Their stores of food and fuel could be running low; they were prepared for an Israeli incursion, but not an open-ended one. Meanwhile, the IDF has systematically destroyed and sealed hundreds of tunnel entrances — upward of 600 at last count — as it slowly tightens the noose around the underground network in northern Gaza. Hamas’s subterranean strategy has been counteracted by a simple and patient Israeli answer: Burying Hamas forces alive in their own tunnels.Then, all of a sudden, a deal was announced this week that drops the 1,100-to-one formula to three-to-one: 50 hostages for 150 Palestinian prisoners, all of the latter either women or prisoners who were minors at the time of their terror attacks.But more interesting than who they are is who they are not. No Hamas fighters will be released, in part because Hamas didn’t really demand it. The prisoner release was treated by Hamas negotiators as a face-saving PR exercise. Their priority, Israeli officials say, was the ceasefire.Hamas first demanded a month-long ceasefire in exchange for a few dozen hostages. Israel didn’t respond. As Hamas losses mounted, its demands shrank. It has now reached 50 hostages for four days’ respite.IDF troops operate inside Gaza during the ongoing ground offensive against Hamas, November 21, 2023. (IDF Spokesman)But as the length of the lull shortened, new demands surfaced. For six hours each day of the truce, Israel must ground its reconnaissance drones. On Thursday the deal was delayed when Hamas sent through their Qatari representatives more demands for additional unspecified limits on Israeli field intelligence forces.Israeli officials have explained these demands as part of the hostage release process: Not all the child hostages are in Hamas hands. Its fighters must travel aboveground to collect them from elsewhere in Gaza. They don’t want to be tracked while doing so.This is, to put it mildly, a strange explanation. There’s a simpler one. A desperate Hamas with many fighters trapped in the steadily tightening noose around Gaza City has negotiated a last-ditch means for saving its northern forces by giving them a brief window to flee south in which the Israelis agree not to watch their escape too closely.This is why Israeli officials are optimistic that Hamas will ultimately carry out its part of the deal. Hamas needs the time. It is why Israel even accepted the terror group’s transparent preparations to cheat, including the stipulation that the first three days of exchanges need not reach the 12- or 13-per-day rate of Israelis released, but that the number missing from that rate must be made up for on the fourth day. That demand suggests Hamas might be planning to release fewer prisoners for three days and then break the agreement on the fourth.But Hamas demands are also preparing for the opposite eventuality, stipulating that as long as a roughly 10-per-day release rate is sustained, the deal can remain in force for longer than four days.A man and a child walk past portraits of Israeli hostages held in Gaza since the Oct. 7 onslaught by Hamas, in Tel Aviv on November 21, 2023, amid the ongoing war between Israel and the Palestinian terror group. (Ahmad Gharabli/AFP)Or put another way, Hamas doesn’t know how long its retreat will take and is preparing for all contingencies.If Hamas reneges, the war resumes, and whatever emotions Israeli leaders may feel — a palpable sense of guilt hangs over every cabinet deliberation — they will broadcast a collective shrug and return to the business of Hamas’s demolition.
Gallant’s grim victory
There’s a bottom line here. On October 29, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant met with the families of the hostages at IDF Headquarters in Tel Aviv. His message to them was buried in the avalanche of news from the front — the IDF had launched its ground war just 36 hours earlier.The families were desperate. They said the ground war felt like a death sentence for their loved ones. Gallant’s response essentially laid out the Israeli strategy thus far.Hamas, he said, “is making cynical use of all that is precious to us. They understand our pain and our anxiety.” But for that very reason, there was no way to simply negotiate the hostages out of Gaza.Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is seen at the 36th Division’s command center in southern Israel, November 16, 2023. (Ariel Hermoni/Defense Ministry)The ground war would accomplish what political pressure could not. It was “inseparable from the effort to return the hostages. If Hamas doesn’t face military pressure, nothing will move.”The war now moves south and will drive a whole new potential civilian humanitarian crisis. Hamas in Khan Younis will be just as trapped, but it will have far more troops available, a clearer understanding of IDF strategy and Israeli implacability, and a longer time to have readied the battlefield. It is there that the bulk of Hamas’s forces will find themselves in a pitched battle for survival — and where the hostages will serve as Hamas’s last available currency for buying pauses to regroup, resupply and, if the offer to Israel is generous, even escape.From Gallant’s perspective, that’s just as it should be.
END
END
IRAN/USA (IRAQ
IRAQ/USA
Iraqi Government furious at the USA for finally retaliating against strikes aimed at them.
(DeCamp/)
Iraqi Government ‘Vehemently’ Condemns US Airstrikes As Violation Of Sovereignty
Iraq’s government on Wednesday blasted US airstrikes launched in the country against Shia militias, calling them a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.
“We vehemently condemn the attack on Jurf al-Nasr, executed without the knowledge of Iraqi government agencies,” said Iraqi government spokesman Basem al-Awadi.
“This action is a blatant violation of sovereignty and an attempt to destabilize the security situation,” al-Awadi added.
The statement came after the US military announced it launched airstrikes early Wednesday against facilities south of Baghdad used by Kataib Hezbollah, a Shia militia that’s aligned with Iran. Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella group of Shia militias that formed in 2014 to fight ISIS, said eight of its fighters were killed in the US strikes.
About 24 hours earlier, a US AC-130 Gunship launched airstrikes against individuals the US claims were responsible for a ballistic missile attack on the Ain al-Asad airbase, which hosts US troops. US officials said the AC-130 killed three militants.
The AC-130 strikes were the first the US launched in Iraq since US troops in Iraq and Syria started coming under attack due to President Biden’s support for Israel’s onslaught in Gaza. According to the Pentagon, US troops have come under attack 66 times in Iraq and Syria since October 17.
The US previously launched three rounds of airstrikes in eastern Syria. Over the weekend, The Washington Postreported that the Pentagon was aware launching strikes in Iraq could “exacerbate anti-American sentiment” in the country.
The US has 2,500 troops in Iraq, a presence many elements in Iraq strongly oppose. The Iraqi government said the airstrikes violated the agreement the US has with Baghdad to keep troops in the country.
“The recent incident represents a clear violation of the coalition’s mission to combat [ISIS] on Iraqi soil,”” the statement said. The government also condemned the frequent attacks on US troops and said it was the only authority that could punish the perpetrators.
“The Iraqi government is solely dedicated to enforcing the law and holding violators accountable, a prerogative exclusively within its purview. No party or foreign agency has the right to assume this role, as it contradicts Iraqi constitutional sovereignty and international law,” the statement said.
IRAN/ (HOUTHIS)//USA//ISRAEL
The idiot Biden : still no response as several drones attack USA warship in the Red Sea. No response from the USA on the captured vessel.
(zerohedge)
US Warship Downs Several Attack Drones In Red Sea As Hijacked Vessel Standoff Continues
THURSDAY, NOV 23, 2023 – 03:15 PM
On Thursday morning the USS Thomas Hudner, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, intercepted more attack drones fired from Yemen while patrolling waters in the Red Sea.
“On the morning (Yemen time) of November 23, the USS Thomas Hudner (DDG 116) shot down multiple one-way attack drones launched from Houthi controlled areas in Yemen,” CENTCOM announced on X.
“The drones were shot down while the U.S. warship was on patrol in the Red Sea,” the statement continued, noting that there was no damage to the ship or casualties among the crew.
“The ship and crew sustained no damage or injury,” according to CENTCOM. The wording of the statement suggests the drones may have been targeting the US warship.
The Houthis have already on several occasions launched missiles and drones on southern Israel. US warships have intercepted the projectiles at least three times at this point.
Both Washington and Israel see that it is Iran ultimately behind Houthi actions. Tehran has also long supplied the Shia Houthis with advanced rockets and drones, part of the broader regional proxy war against the US-Saudi-Gulf axis.
An Israel-Hamas temporary ceasefire and hostage release is expected to go into effect Friday. It remains unclear the extent to which the Houthis and Lebanese Hezbollah will also abide by the Qatar-brokered ceasefire.
Tensions have increased in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf areas on fears that Iran-backed groups could escalate attacks on shipping. The Houthis days ago seized an Israeli-linked shipping vessel and are holding the 25 international crew members hostage. This has served to divert some commercial ship traffic:
Two commercial ships that diverted their course in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden were connected to the same maritime group whose vessel was seized by Yemen’s Houthis, according to shipping data and British maritime security company Ambrey.
Israel on Sunday said the Houthis had seized a British-owned, Japanese-operated cargo ship in the southern Red Sea, describing the incident as an “Iranian act of terrorism” with consequences for international maritime security.
The Houthis have meanwhile issued an awkward video of its militants ‘celebrating’ the taking of the Galaxy Leader vessel…
The seized Galaxy Leader is ultimately owned by Ray Car Carriers, which was founded by Abraham “Rami” Ungar. With an estimated 2019 net worth of more than $2 billion, he’s among Israel’s 30 wealthiest individuals.
The Biden administration is now threatening to formally designate the Houthis a terrorist organization. The White House has also alleged that Iran is complicit in the hijacking of the Galaxy Leader.
We are seeing too much DYING SUDDENLY, DYING IN YOUR SLEEP, DYING AT DAWN etc. in this era of COVID mRNA vaccine!! Is this silent myocarditis due to scarred heart muscle from COVID vaccine that is made worse by catecholamine surges (adrenaline that bathes the scarred heart myocardial muscle, straining the heart, a heart already hobbled by anomalous electrical conduction, contractions etc. due to scarred tissue)? Our argument is that this is likely vaccine-induced cardiac arrest and we are seeing it in males (and females) post COVID vaccine, and in your sleep as you are rising and there is the elevation of catecholamine. Thus the escalation of ‘dying at dawn’. What is causing this rise in fatal or near fatal cardiac arrest in people, even in young people and the one common thread is most if not all are COVID vaccinated? Damar Hamlin (Buffalo Bills??). Kim Pegula??
These malcreants across the 100% lie of COVID showed you what they are capable of, and we have not even gotten around to jailing them YET, so at this time, based on what I know, this is BS junk
Turn it off. Turn the news off, turn off fraud FOX and banal CNN.
Did not work first time and now, they know that once they scare you with the children, you will drop everything. COVID spared our children and a better argument could be that by vaccinating children with the COVID vaccine, especially in the west e.g. US, Canada, with these non-neutralizing non-sterilizing COVID vaccines (does/did not stop infection, replication, transmission and thus placed natural selective pressure on the spike antigen that drives emergence of sub-variants), we have damaged the immune systems of healthy children and subverted the needed ‘training’ and ‘education’ of their innate immune systems (innate antibodies and natural killer (NK) cells and thus at risk for auto-reactivity, auto-immunity illnesses) for lifelong combat of pathogen. So yes, our children are at risk now due to us, and due to the effects of malfeasant corrupted governments, inept corrupted media, health officials and parents falling for the lies and vaccinating normally healthy children who simply needed natural environmental immune exposure. NO vaccine. You damaged them, hobbling their immune systems. Lifelong.
Data today says this is garbage, hype, fear-porn and nothing exists to show otherwise. If any such comes available and I and others think this is a concern for us, we will tell you quickly. Yet you too can figure out the con yourself.
Suddens Deaths Explode Among Vaxxed Children and BabiesREAD MORE…
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MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
European Bonds Shaken As Germany Suspends “Debt Brake” To Allow Increased Borrowing
FRIDAY, NOV 24, 2023 – 10:00 AM
By Elwin de Groot and Maartje Wijffelaars, strategists at Rabobank
The agreed four-day cease fire between Israel and Hamas starts today. Both camps will release hostages and humanitarian aid will be allowed into Gaza. While perhaps promising to the outside world, both camps make sure to bring across the cease fire is temporary and should not at all be interpreted as a start of the end of the war. Indeed, according to Reuters, a spokesperson for Hamas in a video message called for an “escalation of the confrontation with (Israel) on all resistance fronts”, including the Israeli-occupied West Bank. In addition, an Israeli military spokesperson warned that “control over northern Gaza is the first step of a long war, and we are preparing for the next stages”.
While rather futile in light of such news, let’s turn to markets closer to home. Dutch bond yields hardly widened vis-à-vis their German counterparts yesterday, following the political shockwave in the Netherlands. Yet the whole European bond building shook a little as the German government decided to suspend its debt brake in order to allow for increased borrowing. That decision was a big climbdown for ‘frugal’ FDP finance minister Christian Lindner. Indeed, it was a painful defeat for the coalition as a whole, since the debt brake, which limits the amount of new debt to 0.35% of GDP in normal times, was reinstated earlier this year after being dormant for three years during the pandemic and the energy crisis.
The suspension followed on the heels of last week’s ruling by the Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe, saying that the German government unjustly relabelled EUR 60bn in unspent off-balance sheet pandemic funds for climate investments. This implies that the fund can no longer be held off-balance sheet and that any spending that was planned with the fund would have to run through the budget. Spending on projects that is not yet committed can be cancelled, but the government will have to honour any commitments already made (estimated at EUR 37bn, about 1% of GDP). This left a gaping hole in the 2023 budget, which has thus forced the government to temporarily suspend the debt brake.
More importantly than the 2023 budget, is the structural challenge the ruling poses. German policy makers have often used off-balance sheet funds that do not show up in the annual budget, to avoid the straightjacket of the debt brake. The Economic Stabilisation Fund (EUR 200bn, some 5% of GDP) is one of them and now also under scrutiny. If a complaint is filed and it is ruled to be unconstitutional as well, this could derail the German investment agenda completely. In that case, any investment planned for through the fund, would have to be made from the running budget, without taking on any (significant) extra debt. This is a serious risk for the economic outlook of Germany, which isn’t doing that great to say the least, as confirmed by yesterday’s PMI figures and with industrial production still well below pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, the need for state-led investments in (energy) infrastructure, digitalisation and new technologies is bigger than ever.
As our Germany watcher Erik-Jan van Harn notes here, the Court’s ruling has re-sparked the discussion about Germany’s self-imposed fiscal straightjacket. However, we believe the Germans will not give up their debt-brake so easily.
It would not be inconceivable, in our view, that Germany will be forced to look more to the EU, after having often said “thank you but no thank you” to European funds, such as those under the pandemic-inspired RRF. If investments can be made under the umbrella of an EU framework with EU-led financing, it could, perhaps, provide an alternative to the creative accounting tricks it has used so often in the past. On that note, Bloomberg reported yesterday that the EU/European Commission is launching an EUR584bn plan next week to overhaul the European power grid to make if future-proof. Particularly relevant in that respect are the points that “EU member states will have to prioritise projects of common European interest and identify new areas of cooperation” and that “private financing of grid investments will be incentivised through joint instruments alongside the EU and EIB”. In other words, could those new financial instruments supported by the EU (and ultimately ECB?) become a new lifeline for the ailing German economy?
Turning back to markets, developments in the energy market clearly were not responsible for the rise in yields yesterday, as crude oil prices extended their decline on reports of ‘discord’ within OPEC+, which led the oil cartel to delay its upcoming meeting and decide to hold it online on November 30. This was seen by the market as a sign that Saudi-Arabia may not get other countries into line with further production cuts. The Saudis, meanwhile, secured a USD11bn loan from a syndicate of banks to plug a widening future budget hole, which is the result of lower-than-expected oil prices, lower output and rising spending to diversify its economy.
Policy accounts of the November ECB rate setting meeting were broadly in line with Lagarde’s more dovish tone at the press conference, but the write-up underscored its warnings against complacency. Members argued in favour of keeping the door open for a possible further rate hike, but a discussion of an early termination of PEPP reinvestments at the current meeting was seen as premature. It was also acknowledged that markets had revised their expected interest rate path to higher levels, which – if maintained for some time – would contribute to a sufficiently restrictive monetary policy stance.
Yet, in view of the tight labor market, the current level of policy rates might not be as restrictive as generally thought. With that in mind we note that since the ECB held their October meeting, the ECB’s indicator of negotiated has been pointing at further wage pressures from collective bargaining (to 4.7% y/y in Q3). With negotiated wages growing at a clip of 4-5% over the next year or so, it is hard to see services inflation decline below 3% over the foreseeable future (between 2002 and 2019 it never fell more than 0.7% below annual wage growth). Moreover, November’s flash PMI yesterday showed that high wage growth in the service sector led to an acceleration in the increase of selling prices.
Overall, this is no cause for immediate concern, but does warrant a cautious approach and longer pause before the Council considers cuts, a view we have maintained despite increasing signs of economic weakness in recent months. That this economic weakness is at least persisting into the final part of this year was hammered home by the Eurozone flash PMIs for November, as already noted in yesterday’s Daily. Output contracted for the sixth month in a row with the composite PMI coming in at 47.1, strengthening our view that Eurozone GDP will contract for another quarter.
In the UK, surprisingly, PMI data came in better than expected, implying some stabilisation of business activity following three consecutive monthly dips. The latest PMI readings point to UK GDP holding steady in Q4. However, the survey notes that households remained reticent to spend on discretionary items and forward-looking indicators suggested that recession risks will likely remain elevated into the New Year. Service sector inflation remains a key area of concern as businesses once again reported the need to pass on higher staff costs to customers.
END
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSINGS
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0919 UP 0.0016
USA/ YEN 149.53 DOWN .114 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2574 UP 0.0042
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3679 DOWN 17 (CDN DOLLAR UP 17 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 20.88 PTS OR 0.68%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 351.42 PTS OR 1.76%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 12% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 351.42 PTS OR 1.76%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 24.33 PTS OR 0.79%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.12%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 173.79 PTS OR 0.52%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1995.40
silver:$23.68
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 103.52 DOWN 30 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.1477
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1540)
TURKISH LIRA: 28.88 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.772…VERY DANGEROUS
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 7 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.484% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.612 UP 6 in basis points ON THE DAY/12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.957 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY: CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED UP 7.75 POINTS or 0.10%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 39.38 PTS OR 0.25%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 15.33 PTS OR 0.21%
Spain IBEX UP 38.10 PTS OR 0.38%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 191.87 PTS OR 0.86%
WTI Oil price 76.81 12: EST
Brent Oil: 81.82 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 88,88; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 20//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.6450 UP 8 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.3331 UP 13 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0945 UP 0.0042 OR 42 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2603 UP .0071 or 71 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.3205% UP 12 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .771%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.46 DOWN .178 //YEN UP 18 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3623 DOWN 0.0075 CDN dollar UP 75 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 75.18
Brent OIL: 80.19
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS pts to 4.472%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS PTS to 4.603%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 6 PTS AT 4.955 %
USA dollar index: 103.29 DOWN 56 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 28.87 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 89.28 DOWN AND 80/100 roubles
GOLD 2001.80 3:30 PM
SILVER: 24.30 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 117,12 PTS OR 0.33%
NASDAQ down 19.37 PTS OR 0.12%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.46 DOWN 0.34 PTS (2.72)%
GLD: $185.52 up 0.96 OR 0.52%
SLV/ $22.27 up .60 OR 2.77%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Stocks Surge For 4th Straight Week Amid US Macro Meltdown
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, NOV 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM
Stocks rallied for the 4th straight week – longest sin-streak since June – led by The Dow, and Small Caps surge today back into the green for the week…
… as plunging US Macro data…
Source: Bloomberg
…supported the trend for rising expectations of rate-cuts…
Source: Bloomberg
…just ignore the implied recession needed to fulfill expectations for 100bps of cuts next year!
Meanwhile, financial conditions have done nothing but loosen since Powell mentioned the market doing The Fed’s job of ‘tightening’…
Source: Bloomberg
US equity majors are up 9-13% off the late October lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields ended higher on the week (largely thanks to a 6-8bps jump in yields today) with the short-end underperforming on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended lower for the 3rd week of the last 4, at 3-month lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin on the week, rallying back above $2100…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin broke out to a new cycle high, near $38,500…
Source: Bloomberg
Spot Gold prices jumped back above $2000 (silver outperformed on the week, up 2.5%)…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices ended the week very marginally higher (after 4 weeks down in a row), but with plenty of chop on the way…
Finally, with regard to the ‘Santa Rally’, Goldman Sachs notes that on a 10-year lookback, equities tend to struggle in December, particularly the Mag 7…
Source: Bloomberg
And with the S&P higher 15 of the last 18 sessions, on track to post its best month since July off 2022, bringing us back to multi-month highs in terms of prices, but in terms of valuation as well. Across eight different measures, the median absolute metric trades in its 89th percentile relative to history.
Do you feel lucky?
EARLY MORNING TRADING//
TUCKER CARLSON
II USA DATA
As expected USA manufacturing PMI slumps into contraction with jobs lower and prices lower
(zerohedge)
US Manufacturing PMI Unexpectedly Slumps Into Contraction; Jobs & Prices Lower
FRIDAY, NOV 24, 2023 – 09:54 AM
Amid a collapse in ‘hard’ economic data, ‘soft’ surveys from S&P Global was expected to see both Services and Manufacturing PMIs slide further in preliminary November data.
However, the data was more mixed with US Manufacturing falling more than expected to 49.4 – back into contraction – (vs 49.9 exp) from 50.0 in October. However, US Services unexpectedly rose from 50.6 to 50.8 (exp 50.3).
“The US private sector remained in expansionary territory in November, as firms signalled another marginal rise in business activity. Moreover, demand conditions – largely driven by the service sector – improved as new orders returned to growth for the first time in four months.
The upturn was historically subdued, however, amid challenges securing orders as customers remained concerned about global economic uncertainty, muted demand and high interest rates.
Businesses cut employment for the first time in almost three-and-a-half years in response to concerns about the outlook. Job shedding has spread beyond the manufacturing sector, as services firms signalled a renewed drop in staff in November as cost savings were sought.
“On a more positive note, input price inflation softened again, with cost burdens rising at the slowest rate in over three years. The impact of hikes in oil prices appear to be dissipating in the manufacturing sector, where the rate of cost inflation slowed notably.
Although ticking up slightly, selling price inflation remained subdued relative to the average over the last three years and was consistent with a rate of increase close to the Fed’s 2% target.”
The US data comes after yesterday’s Euro area composite flash PMI increased by 0.6pt to 47.1, above consensus expectations, driven by a meaningful acceleration in Germany and the periphery, partially offset by a marginal decline in France. In the UK, the composite flash PMI improved meaningfully and entered expansionary territory at 50.1, above consensus expectations, on the back of a pickup in both sectors, with the services sector index entering positive territory at 50.5.
Goldman sees three main takeaways from today’s data.
First, we see a potential turning point in Euro area activity, with forward-looking indicators all improving in November, potentially setting a positive stage for the remainder of the year and the beginning of 2024. While the improvement seems to be broad-based, the upside surprises in the manufacturing sector in Germany and the Euro area as a whole may point to early signs of the sector’s revival.
Second, inflationary pressures, after moderating for some time, show signs of renewed intensification in the Euro area, as reflected by the output and input price components ticking up in November.
Third, UK growth momentum was meaningfully better than last month, and is picking up across the board, with the headline and services indices coming in above 50. This, however, is now accompanied by an increase in cost pressures, with both the input and output price indices edging up in November.
Finally, back to the US, S&P Global found that US business uncertainty was also heightened among US firms, as expectations regarding the year-ahead outlook slipped to the weakest since July.
III) USA ECONOMIC STORIES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
end
USA// COVID//VACCINE/
end
SWAMP STORIES
END
THE KING REPORT
The King Report November 23, 2023 Issue 7125
Independent View of the News
Israel-Hamas cease-fire details The agreement is set to go into effect Thursday at 10 a.m. local time (3 a.m. ET), according to Hamas. Israel has not yet confirmed that exact timing… The Middle Eastern nation of Qatar played a key role in brokering the deal between Israel and Hamas… The first of 50 hostages – including three Americans – are expected to be released from captivity in Gaza starting at 10 a.m. local time Thursday. The hostages are expected to be released in groups of 10-12 over the course of four days, if the cease-fire holds… https://www.foxnews.com/world/israel-hamas-cease-fire-details-what-we-know-hostage-exchange-deal
“If you don’t defend citizens from kidnap and murder, you end up choosing between terrible options and slightly less bad options.” – Nadav Eyal, one of Israel’s most respected journalists, on the very lousy deal to which Israel rightly agreed last night. https://danielgordis.substack.com/p/if-you-dont-defend-citizens-from
@HAHazony: The hostage deal is a mistake, undoubtedly, but one the Israeli government has to make. While the agreement will endanger the lives of IDF soldiers, and raise the likelihood of copycat attacks in the future, the political constellation has forced Netanyahu’s hand.
Oil (-5.2% at low) and gasoline tumbled after the November 26 OPEC+ meeting was rescheduled to November 30. Reports indicated that Saudi Arabia is upset with other OPEC+ nations’ oil production and no longer wishes to be the sole support (1m bbl/day production cut) in the oil market.
Oil and gasoline commenced their plunge at 4:33 ET.
The University of Michigan’s Sentiment for November increased to 61.3 from 60.4; 61 was expected. Current Conditions jumped to 68.3 from 65.7; Expectations fell to 56.8 from 56.9. However, 1 Year Inflation increased to 4.5% from the expected and prior 4.4%. 5-10 Year Inflation increased to 3.2%; 3.1% was consensus, 3.2% prior. Bonds declined sharply on the inflation angst.
UM Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu: These expectations have risen in spite of the fact that consumers have taken note of the continued slowdown in inflation; consumers appear worried that the softening of inflation could reverse in the months and years ahead.http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
USZs hit a high of 116 16/32 at 7:36 ET; they sank to 115 15/32 at 10:52 ET. After a bounce to 115 30/32 at 11:44 ET, USZs retreated to the daily low. USZs inched modestly higher until the close.
Initial Jobless Claims fell to 209k from 233k; 227k was expected. Continuing Claims declined to 1.84m from 1.862m; 1.875m was consensus.
October Durable Goods Orders tumbled 5.4% m/m; -3.2% was expected. Durables Ex-Transportation was unchanged; +0.1% was expected. Nondefense Ex-Air fell 0.1%; +0.1% was consensus. Sept Nondef Ex-Air was revised to -0.2% from +0.5%. Shipments were unchanged; +0.1% was expected.
ESZs declined moderately during the first 30 minutes of Nikkei trading on Wednesday but methodically rallied until they turned positive at 21:30 ET. They turned negative 60 minutes later and proceeded to decline until the 1 ET Nikkei close. ESZs went inert until they commenced a rally for the 3 ET European opening at 2:52 ET. ESZs then intractable plodded higher until they surged from 4563.50 at 9:27 ET to 4580.50 at 9:41 ET. This was a glorious ‘pump’ for the NYSE open!
Stocks and ESZs then tumbled until 10:16 ET. If we recall correctly, subscribers to the UM Sentiment survey get the data about 15 minutes before it is released to the public at 10:00 ET. But traders are extremely jiggy for stocks. So, despite yet another indication of inflation angst from consumers, traders aggressively bought ESZs and stocks. ESZs bounced from 4555.00 at 10:16 ET to 4579.75 at 10:37 ET.
Alas, sellers returned; ESZs slipped to 4559.00 at 10:51 ET. A Noon Balloon took ESZs to 4575.50 at 12:08 ET. Sellers returned; ESZs sank to 4562.25 at 12:50 ET.
@WKBW 12:18 ET Wednesday: The Rainbow Bridge in Niagara Falls is closed in both directions Wednesday afternoon due to an incident (explosion) involving a vehicle coming into the U.S.
Fox’s @BillMelugin_: High level local police sources tell colleague @AlexisMcAdamsTV that the vehicle explosion at the Rainbow Bridge border crossing in NY was an attempted terror attack w/ a vehicle full of explosives. Two men in car dead…
ESZs and USZs went inert after the car bomb at The Rainbow Bridge. After reports that the explosion was the product of an attempted terrorist attack, ESZs broke down (14:30 ET). ESZs hit 4555.25 at 14:40 ET and then bounced and continued to rally until 15:48 ET (4569.50). ESZs eased lower into the close.
@BillMelugin_: Deleting this prior tweet as colleague @AlexisMcAdamsTVhas now updated/clarified her reporting. She says her police sources initially had high confidence there were explosives in the vehicle due to condition of the car – she says sources say it now appears it was a result of speed/impact.
@charliekirk11: This security video confirms that the vehicle went up onto an embankment, causing it to go airborne 10-15 feet before crashing and exploding… Authorities are beginning to walk back reports of a terrorist attack and no report of a bomb.https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1727434420230226138
American taxpayers are now slaves to interest payments Interest on the federal debt is now so immense that it’s consuming 40% of all personal income taxes. The largest source of revenue for the federal government is increasingly being devoted to just servicing the debt, not even paying it down. The problem is getting worse daily and will eventually result in even more pain for taxpayers… As deficit spending continues unchecked, urged on by the Biden administration, the debt is growing at a breakneck pace – over $500 billion in October alone… The only way out of this debt death spiral is to cut government expenditures – and fast… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/american-taxpayers-now-slaves-interest-190043738.html
The Bottom 80% Has Gotten Significantly Poorer Since the Pandemic Began, and This Is Creating a “Robin Hood Mentality” All Over America – A brand new study from the Federal Reserve has discovered that the bottom 80 percent have “lower bank deposits and other liquid assets compared to their status in March 2020”… Right now, the gap between the wealthy and the rest of us is the greatest that it has ever been in the entire history of our nation… As economic conditions have deteriorated, crime has soared…https://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/the-bottom-80-has-gotten-significantly-poorer-since-the-pandemic-began-and-this-is-creating-a-robin-hood-mentality-all-over-america/
Positive aspects of previous session US stocks rallied after another sharp early decline Oil and gasoline declined sharply; bonds rallied modestly
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks are bubbling up on something stronger than irrational exuberance
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will there be an equity reversal after Thanksgiving Weekend?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open:Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4556.70 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4568.43; 4545.05
Far-Right Wilders Wins Most Seats (35) in Dutch Election: Exit Poll – BBG 15:00 ET Wednesday
White House, billionaire won’t say if Biden paying for Thanksgiving stay President Biden’s aides and hedge fund big David Rubenstein aren’t saying if the commander-in-chief is covering the cost of his six-day holiday stay at Rubenstein’s Nantucket mansion — after Biden triggered ethics concerns by taking free lodging at other homes and then failing to disclose them as gifts on annual forms… Biden also stayed at Rubenstein’s Nantucket home with his extended family over Thanksgiving in both 2021 and 2022. It’s unclear whether he paid for those vacations… https://trib.al/dReHcDi
Jim Bianco @biancoresearch: The Fed has two problems. 1. Credibility 2. They tied themselves to a bad theory about inflation… The Fed was already straining its credibility by saying that the market was doing its work by tightening financial conditions (see Oct 27). Then, when conditions dramatically ease, they appear to have switched to declaring victory… And now, the 1-year expectation is back to an eight-month high (orange up) WITHOUT a spike in gasoline prices (blue diverging lower). In other words, it is not a response to higher prices. It is “unanchored” as a response to three years of all prices moving higher. So, what does the Fed do now? Threaten to hike again to bring down “unanchored” inflation expectations? If so, they risk a toxic reaction in risk assets (aka stocks). Or do they ignore the theory of inflation exceptions when inconvenient, like they appear to be doing with financial conditions? Then they risk blowing what credibility they have left…
Sen. Johnson demands interview with Fauci adviser, ‘deeply concerned’ key COVID records were destroyed – Underpinning Johnson’s concerns is a June 17, 2021, email sent by Morens, a 25-year National Institutes of Health veteran, to his colleagues about a request days earlier by Johnson for a tranche of documents about the NIH’s handling of the COVID-19 respiratory illness. “I have tried to make sure I have retained no documents that might lead other members of [American Society of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene] to be approached for similar document production,” Morens wrote… https://t.co/iryMD5Qh9k
@SenRonJohnson: I obtained a “confidential” email from @NIAIDNews official Dr. David Morens that he sent from his Gmail account detailing his efforts to evade my oversight of COVID-19 origins. https://twitter.com/SenRonJohnson/status/1725561976602935698
@nataliegwinters: AUS official was told by a Director from Fauci’s NIAID to “delete” sections from a government report showing Chinese Communist Party scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were working on “reverse engineering” viruses(Ebola)with 50% mortality rates. https://twitter.com/nataliegwinters/status/1727060186656113116
Germany to Suspend Borrowing Limit Again after Budge Ruling On Tuesday, the Constitutional Court of Germany deemed the government’s actions improper when they shifted borrowed money meant for pandemic relief to finance environmental projects and green technology, totaling 60 billion euros ($64.6 billion). Consequently, the court ruling disrupted environmental initiatives, investment plans, and the overall budget, leading to tensions within the governing coalition. The spending freeze affects all government ministries, including a special fund of around €200 billion established to aid companies in the aftermath of the pandemic and the energy crisis. Consequently, the passage of Germany’s 2024 budget was postponed by lawmakers due to the significant budget shortfall resulting from the ruling. Today’s decision opens the door for increased borrowing… https://www.forexlive.com/news/germany-to-suspend-borrowing-limits-for-2023-after-budget-ruling-20231123/
European Bonds Fall on Supply Concerns; Oil Drops – BBG Thursday European bonds fell after a report that Germany will suspend debt limits for a fourth consecutive year, adding to concerns over more borrowing as the euro-area economy slows…
Japan’s Inflation Quickens, Clouding Price Outlook for BoJ – BBG 20:11 ET Growth in consumer prices excluding fresh food inched up to 2.9% in October from 2.8% in September, staying above the Bank of Japan’s 2% goal for the 19th month…
Today – US stocks close at 13:00 ET. With high absenteeism, a determined entity or two can manipulate the markets. The window for an equity reversal after the rally for Thanksgiving Week is open. Monitor bonds closely. Investors buying bonds for recession will be in conflict with investors that are selling debt due to frightening increases in sovereign budgets and debt issuance. Yes, Virginia, it will take equity types a lot longer to realize what Mr. Bond knows. ESZs are +3.00 and USZs are -19/32 at 21:25 ET.
Expected economic data: Nov S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 49.9, Services 50.3, Composite 50.3
S&P 500 Index 50-day MA: 4344; 100-day MA: 4412; 150-day MA: 4352; 200-day MA: 4273 DJIA 50-day MA: 33,876; 100-day MA: 34,341; 150-day MA: 34,106; 200-day MA: 33,853 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 3828.58 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4425.18 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4443.83 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative– a close below 4532.01 triggers a sell signal
@paulsperry_: Records reveal Biden had his personal lawyer send a FedEx driver to the Penn Biden Center to pick up boxes of WH docs on Nov 2, 2022–the day before (Nov 3) the National Archives arrived @ the Center to retrieve classified WH docs “discovered” there. Docs w/h from NARA?
FBI agent had to erase public vitriol on Trump; Mar-a-Lago in field office’s jurisdiction Top FBI officials ordered an agent to scrub his Facebook page to delete anti-Trump vitriol before they would promote him to head the bureau’s Miami field office, which covers former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, a whistleblower told Congress. In a disclosure to the House Judiciary Committee, the whistleblower said Jeffrey Veltri was promoted earlier this year to become the special agent in charge of the Miami office… https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/nov/20/whistleblower-fbi-official-ordered-to-scrub-anti-t/
@greg_price11: Charleston, South Carolina just elected its first Republican Mayor since 1877. William Cogswell, a former GOP State Rep, defeated incumbent Democrat Mayor John Tecklenburg in today’s runoff election by less than 1,000 votes.
Pro-Palestinian protesters glue their hands to 6th Avenue, disrupting Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Paradehttps://t.co/9rlb9Q4DcC
@sentdefender: Violence and Protests have broken out in the Irish Capital of Dublin tonight following a Stabbing Attack earlier today by what has now been confirmed to be an Algerian immigrant who targeted an elementary school and resulted in injuries to 3 children and 2 adults. https://t.co/RIFKyycu2J
@WallStreetSilv: The Irish are demanding an end to the government’s mass immigration policies and an increase in deportations. Trains, buses, police cars and immigration centers have been set on fire in Dublin. https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1727790266826780879
@CollinRugg: An Iowa county supervisor’s wife has been convicted on 52 counts of voter fraud for ballot-stuffing to help her husband win the nomination for Congress. I thought this was impossible? Kim Phuong Taylor was found guilty of 26 counts of giving false voting information… https://t.co/T3XBXtSn03
ABC News @ABC: Thanksgiving could soon become another victim of climate change as rising temperatures threaten the abundance and quality of the ingredients used to make some traditional dishes. (Cultism trumps all!)
“There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force, socialism—by vote. It is merely the difference between murder and suicide.” — Ayn Rand
AM2019.86
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