GOLD PRICE CLOSED: UP $16,40 TO $2049.20
SILVER PRICE DOWN 8 CENTS TO $23.07
Access prices: closes 4: 15 PM
Gold ACCESS CLOSED 2037.70
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: 22.91
Bitcoin morning price:, 42,657 DOWN 1060 DOLLARS
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $42,770 DOWN 1173 dollars
Platinum price closing $925.70 DOWN $0.95
Palladium price; $988.95 UP $10.45
END
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 45 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD
Beginning Monday, April 1, 2024, CME Group settlement data will no longer be accessible through ftp.cmegroup.com and will have a delayed publication time of 12:00 a.m. CT on all cmegroup.com web pages. Learn about alternate ways to access the data in our FAQ.
AUTO-REFRESH IS OFF
Last Updated 31 Jan 2024 12:51:39 PM CT.
Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.
Due to the huge rise in the dollar, we must look at gold and silver in currencies other than the dollar to understand where we are heading
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros
4: 15 PM ACCESS
*CANADIAN GOLD: $2,738.67 UP 11.03 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 2,795.90 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//DEC 1 272023)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1607.02 UP 2.97 pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1655.17 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 2/2023
*EURO GOLD: 1884,83 UP 6.81 euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 1903.75 EUROS PER OZ//DEC 1.2023)
DONATE
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,031.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 01/30/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 02/01/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
072 C GOLDMAN 86
104 C MIZUHO 158
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 80
132 C SG AMERICAS 51
190 H BMO CAPITAL 836
323 C HSBC 1603 170
357 C WEDBUSH 8
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 195
365 C MAREX CAPITAL M 60
407 C STRAITS FIN LLC 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 625
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 607
661 C JP MORGAN 1547 1277
661 H JP MORGAN 53
685 C RJ OBRIEN 7
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 3
690 C ABN AMRO 3
709 C BARCLAYS 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 12
880 C CITIGROUP 25
880 H CITIGROUP 109
DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 01/30/2024 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 01/30/2024
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:31:12
905 C ADM 26 19
TOTAL: 3,783 3,783
MONTH TO DATE: 3,783
JPMorgan stopped 1277/3783 contracts.
FOR JAN.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2024. CONTRACT: 3783 NOTICES FOR 378,300 OZ or 11.7667 TONNES
total notices so far: 3783 contracts for 378,300 Oz (11.7667 tonnes)
FOR FEBRUARY:
SILVER NOTICES 547 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 2,735,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 547 for 2,745,000 oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES
GLD
WITH GOLD UP $16.40
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A WITHDRAWAL OF 2,01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.88 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS AT THE SLV//
MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV AGAIN: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7438 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 440.137 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 485 CONTRACTS TO 136,855 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0.05 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY. WE HAD A ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION BUT A CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING. WE HAD A FAIR 369 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 369 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.05), BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 321 CONTRACTS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES ACCOMPANYING CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING BUT AT HIGHER PRICES.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A VERY STRONG SIZED 809 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.535 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) ACCOMPANYING A STRANGE 89 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR EX. FOR RISK FOR 445,000 OZ//NEW TOTAL; 3.980 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 3.980 MILLION OZ
/ STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 369 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED 886 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JAN ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JAN
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 21 days, total 15,733 contracts: OR 78.665 MILLION OZ (749 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 78.655 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 485 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR TINY LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 809 ISSUED FOR MARCH AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB. OF 3.535 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANIED BY TODAY’S 445,000 OZ EX. FOR RISK //NEW TOTAL 3.980 MILLION OZ
NEW STANDING 3.980 million OZ /// WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 321 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE TINY LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED 369 CONTRACTS//SOME FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERINGS FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS . THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (369) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 547 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 2,735,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 4438 CONTRACTS TO 430,328 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED 1245 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 3193 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $6.50 GAIN IN PRICE//TUESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 49.773 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE ACCOMPANIED BY TODAY’S HUGE 55,400 OZ EX. FOR RISK //THUS INITIAL STANDING FOR FEB: 51.494 TONNES // ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $6.50 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1062 OI CONTRACTS (.5692) PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 3376 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 430,328
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1062 CONTRACTS WITH 4438 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 3376 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1062 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 1374 CONTRACTS.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3376 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (4438) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1062 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 49.773 TONNES PLUS TODAY’S 1.723 TONNE OZ EX. FOR RISK//NEW STANDING 51.496 TONNES. / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION // 4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1374 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JAN.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JAN. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 93,804 CONTRACTS OR 9,380,400 OZ OR 291.76 TONNES IN 21 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4466 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 21 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 291.76 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 291.76/3550 x 100% TONNES 8,19% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24:
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 485 CONTRACTS OI TO 137,433 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 809 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MARCH 809 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 809 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 485 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 809 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 321 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 1.605 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $.05 LOSS IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 41.98 PTS OR 1.48% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 218.38 PTS OR 1.39% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 220.85 OR 0.61% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.99% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1779 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1890 /Oil UP TO 77.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 81.67/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 4438 CONTRACTS TO 430,328 DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.50 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY TRADING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 3376 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 3376 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3376 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1062 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3376 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 4438 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS TINY SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $6.50 TUESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED 1374 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: FEB (22.706 TONNES) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 51.496 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $6.50 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR LOSS OF 1062 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A FAIR T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF TUESDAY’S TRADING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AT HIGHER PRICES AS WELL AS FINAL LIQUIDATION OF OUR SPREADERS.
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 3.303 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB. (49.773 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE ALONG WITH ANOTHER STRANGE 554 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 1.7235 TONNES. VERY UNUSUAL TO OBTAIN THIS ON OUR INITIAL FIRST DAY NOTICE. ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $6.50
WE HAD – REMOVED 1245 CONTRACT TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1062 CONTRACTS OR 106,200 OZ OR 3.303 TONNES.
Estimated gold volume today:// 189,183 poor
final gold volumes/yesterday 251,897 fair
//speculators have left the gold arena
JAN 31 INITIAL FEB GOLD
/ /// THE FEB 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 43,339.538 OZ Brinks Manfra . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 32,004.15 oz ASAHI |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | NIL oz |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 3783 notice(s) 378,300 OZ 11.7667 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 12219 contracts 12,219 oz 38.006 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 378300 notices 378,300 oz 11.7667 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
1 dealer deposits:
i) Into ASAHI 32004,15 oz
total dealer deposits: 32,004.15 oz
total customer withdrawals: 2
i) Out of Brinks 41,796.290 oz (1300 kilobars)
ii) Out of Manfra: 1543.248 oz (48 kilobars)
total withdrawals 43,359.538 oz 1348 kilobars
we had 0 customer deposits
total customer deposits NIL oz
Adjustments; 3
a) dealer to customer JPMorgan: 123,263.795 oz
b) dealer to customer Malca: 482.265 oz
c) dealer to customer Manfra: 1253.889 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEB.
For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 16,002 contracts having LOST 14,282 contracts. Thus
by definition the initial amount of gold standing is as follows:
16,002 contracts x 100 oz per contract = 1,600,200 oz or 49.773 tonnes.
However for the first time ever, we received notice that we also had 554 notices filed under exchange for risk for a total of 55,400 oz or 1.723 tonnes.
Thus initial standing for gold for February is 49.773 tonnes + 1.723 tonnes = 51.494 tonnes which is pretty good.
March GAINED 345 contracts to stand at 2017.
APRIL GAINED 8929 CONTRACTS RISING TO 342,407.
We had 3783 contracts filed for today representing 378,300 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 1547 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 3783 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1277 notice(s) was (were) stopped ( received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3783 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (16,002 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 3783 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,600,200 OZ OR 49.773 TONNES + 1.723 Ex for Risk = 51.496 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB. contract month: No of notices filed so far (3783) x 100 oz + (16,002) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (3783) x 100 oz) which equals 1,600,200 oz + 55,400 oz ex. for risk//total standing OR 51.494 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR FEB: 51.494 TONNES WHICH IS GREAT FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,350,186.829 41.99 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 19,576,936.516 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 9,034,198,687 (281,00 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,542,737.829 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 7,684012 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 239,00tonnes
END
SILVER/COMEX
JAN 31/INITIAL
//2024// THE FEB 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 915,626.280 oz CNT BRINKS MANRA . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 606,851.75OZ asahi |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 554,583.434 oz DELAWARE CNT |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 547 CONTRACT(S) (2,735,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 160 contracts (800,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 547 Contracts (2,735,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 1 dealer deposit
i) Into ASAHI: 606,851.75 oz
total dealer deposit: 606,851.75 oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 2 deposits customer account:
i) Out of Delaware 3874.600 oz
ii) Out of CNT 550,788.834 oz
total customer deposits 554,583.434 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 130.806 million oz/275.229 million or 47.63%
adjustment: 4
a) dealer to customer Asahi 874,200.840 oz
b) customer to dealer
i) Brinks 34,910.550 oz
ii) CNT 605,981.450 oz
iii) Manfra 546,575.035 oz
Comex withdrawals: 3
i) Out of CNT 286,296.800 oz
ii) Out of Brinks 433,162,960 oz
iii) Out of Manfra; 196,166.528 oz
total withdrawal: 915,626.280 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 42.54 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 275.229 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF FRB. /2023 OI: 707 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 7 CONTRACT(S).
THUS BY DEFINITION, WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING INITIAL STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX:
707 NOTICES X 5000 OZ PER NOTICE = 3,535,000 OZ. HOWEVER FOR THE FIRST TIME FOR SILVER WE
RECEIVED NOTICE THAT WE HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 89 NOTICES SERVED UPON FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL OF 445,000 OZ.
THUS THE INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR THIS NON ACTIVE MONTH OF FEB IS 3.535 MILLION OZ + .445 MILLION EX FOR RISK = 3.980 MILLION OZ.
WHEN YOU SEE EXCHANGE FOR RISK VERY EARLY, OBVIOUSLY THEY ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY FINDING NEEDED SILVER FOR THE DELIVERIES.
MARCH LOST 2706 CONTRACTS TO 97,275
APRIL SAW A GAIN OF 1425 CONTRACTS UP TO 25,202
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 547 for 2,735,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 55,645 good
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 59,462 good
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 547 x 5,000 oz = 2,735,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (707) and the number of notices served upon today 547 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the FEB/2024 contract month: 707 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB. (547) – number of notices served upon today (83 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB contract month equates to 3.535 MILLION OZ. + .445 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL 3.980 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 3.980 million oz.
There are 41.579 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $16.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.88 TONNES:
JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.89 TONNES:
TOTAL IN LAST 18 DAYS WITHDRAWAL OF 14.12 TONNES
JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAYHUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.05 TONNES
JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.75 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $3.95 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.95 TONNES
JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES
JAN 18/WITH GOLD UP $14.85 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.25 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .549 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.;//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.40 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $31.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.90 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 2/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.11 TONNES
DEC 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.55 TONNES
DEC 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.35 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 881.71 TONNES
DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $23.25 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.26 TONNES
DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $1.25 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 22/WITH GOLD UP $17,85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 21/WITH GOLD UP $5.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT .58 TONNES OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.25 TONNES
DEC 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.60 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.67 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 852.88 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JAN 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7438 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.137 MILLION OZ//LAST 5 DAYS: 9.1118 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.876 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.699 MILLION OZ//LAST 4 DAYS: 7.368 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP $.37 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.105 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.575 MILLION OZ
JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.556 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.680 MILLION OZ
JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.831 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /
INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.236 MILLION OZ
JAN 24/WITH SILVER UP $0.44 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 1.375 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.067 MILLION OZ
JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.21 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 16.201 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.694 MILLION OZ
JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ
JAN 19/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ
JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.951 MILLION OZ
JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.38 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 779,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.62 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ
JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 450,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ
JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ
JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,602,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ
JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 916,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.972 MILLION OZ
JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ
JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.294 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ
JAN 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 915,000 OZ FORM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.35 MILLION OZ
DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
DEC 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.374 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ
THIS IS THE 3RD STRAIGHT DAY THAT THE SLV HAS ENGAGED IN WITHDRAWALS
DEC 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.465 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.639 MILLION OZ
DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.289 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.104 MILLION OZ
DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 440.137 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
The Value Of Diamonds Sinks As Gold Stays Strong
WEDNESDAY, JAN 31, 2024 – 07:20 AM
Valentine’s Day is here and you might find yourself buying (or wishing you had remembered to buy) a Valentine’s Day present. A classic romantic present involves gold, diamonds, and sometimes both. And both diamonds and gold seem at first blush to have a lot in common.
Both are or at least can be beautiful. Diamonds are one of the shiniest gemstones (high refractive index if you’re science-minded) and can be perfectly clear or come in a wide range of colors. Gold is of course famously appealing to look at. Both diamonds and gold convey luxury and wealth, and both are regularly used to make luxury products such as rings, bracelets, watches, and earrings.
The expense of both diamonds and gold is one reason why it’s so common for both diamonds and gold to be part of an engagement ring- the expense of these materials makes engagement rings expensive which helps them serve as a costly sign of commitment.
Some have argued that the similarities between diamonds and gold are even greater, given that some are turning to diamonds as a store of value and as an investment. But this overlooks why gold has historically been preferred as a store of value to diamonds, and how new technological developments have made the differences between diamond and gold even greater.
First, diamonds lack the history of gold. While gold has spontaneously emerged as a treasured metal and as a store of value or as a currency from civilization to civilization, the emergence of diamonds as a valuable commodity is much more recent and historically contingent. While diamonds were always recognized as gemstones, broad-based demand for diamonds did not emerge in the West until the 1800s and their famous role as the central stone in an engagement ring did not emerge until the mid 1900’s due to savvy marketing campaigns.
So demand for gold is more stable and organic than the demand for diamonds. When central banks look to preserve the value of their currency, they often increase strategic gold reserves, not strategic diamond reserves.
While diamonds and gold might be seen as similar because both have industrial uses as well as usage in jewelry and investment, that overlooks the fact almost all gold is used for jewelry or as an investment while 80% of diamonds are used by industry. While every single ounce of gold could be used in industry, jewelry, or as an investment, because gold is fungible and divisible, the opposite is true for diamonds. Diamond value varies dramatically between individual stones. The value of a diamond depends on its size, its color, its clarity, and its cut. Many diamonds are worthless for any non-industrial purposes. While gold can be used as bullion converted to jewelry then melted back into bullion, cutting a diamond over and over would destroy its value. Demand for gold is driven by every sector. Demand for small industrial diamonds is not driven by demand for large diamonds that could feature in jewelry, and vice versa.
Both gold and (gemstone quality) diamonds are valuable because of their relative rarity compared to demand. Gold is rare because the element, gold, is genuinely rare. Diamonds have been rare, because while they are made of carbon, a common element, the specific arrangement of carbon atoms that make up a diamond is rarely produced in nature, at least not in the form of large diamonds.
But advances in technology have changed that. It is now much cheaper to buy a lab-grown diamond for an engagement ring than to buy a diamond mined out of the earth. And these lab-grown diamonds are not stones that happen to resemble diamonds such as cubic zirconia, they are genuine diamonds created in a lab. Advances in technology have driven down the prices of both lab-grown and naturally mined diamonds. The value of lab-grown diamonds is down by over 70% since the start of 2016 and even natural mined diamonds have fallen by over 25%. It is unlikely that technological improvements in creating lab-grown diamonds will stop improving meaning lab-grown diamonds will be able to supply diamonds to both the industrial market and the jewelry market.
If you think diamonds are prettier than gold, I wouldn’t argue. But I know which one I would rather have as part of my investment portfolio.
END
Four States Consider Lifting Taxes On Precious Metals
WEDNESDAY, JAN 31, 2024 – 03:45 PM
Citizens of Georgia, Kentucky, Wisconsin, and Kansas may soon enjoy lower taxes on precious metals if recently introduced pro-metal bills are made law in 2024.
Earlier this month, all four states introduced or reintroduced bills that would exempt precious metals from either state sales tax (in Kentucky and Wisconsin) or state income tax (in Georgia and Kansas).
Kentucky lawmakers will vote on House Bill 101 and Senate Bill 105 in this year’s legislative session. If passed, the bills would end state sales tax on gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bullion starting in August of this year. Wisconsin’s Assembly Bill 29 and Senate Bill 33 would both enact similar provisions while also lifting sales tax on the purchase of copper bullion.
Proponents of these bills point out that gold and silver are one of the only asset classes that have sales taxes; investors don’t have to pay sales tax on more common investments, like stocks and bonds. The Sound Money Defense League recently elaborated on this point:
“Sales taxes are typically levied on final consumer goods. Computers, shirts, and shoes carry sales taxes because the consumer is ‘consuming’ the good. Precious metals are inherently held for resale, not ‘consumption,’ making the imposition of sales taxes on precious metals illogical from the start.”
Both Kansas and Georgia eliminated sales taxes on bullion in the past and are now taking the next logical step in facilitating the use of sound money. House Bill 895 in Georgia and House Bill 2405 and Senate Bill 303 in Kansas would lift state capital gains taxes on precious metals, leaving only the federal capital gains tax on income earned from holding gold or silver.
Kansas’ two bills also explicitly reaffirm that gold and silver are legal tender in the state and ensure physical metal can be used voluntarily as currency, establishing a relatively free market in money:
“The purchase, sale or exchange of any type or form of specie shall not give rise to any tax liability of any kind… Unless expressly provided by statute or by contract, no person shall have the right to compel any other person to tender specie or to accept specie as tender.”
Many argue income tax on precious metals constitutes a second tax on top of inflation. As Peter Schiff says, “Printing money is merely taxation in another form.” This implicit inflation tax affects everyone’s cash holdings, whether they invest in precious metals or not. Depending on where they live, anyone who earns a nominal capital gain on gold and silver can incur a second, explicit tax liability, even if their gain is only nominal.
By considering these bills, these states join the long and growing list of jurisdictions in the United States that offer some sort of tax relief for precious metals. Missouri and Oklahoma, for example, filed bills last month that would also exempt precious metals from state income tax. Oklahoma and Florida went a step further and also considered bills that would establish bullion depositories in each state, which would promote sound monetary policy at the state level.
It’s no surprise that more states are taking steps to protect their citizens from wealth-destroying monetary policy carried out by the Federal Reserve. The recent stretch of high inflation serves as a stark reminder of the centrality of money in advanced economies. When the value of money is eroded by inflationary spending and out-of-control public debt, ordinary people pay the price. Thankfully, as state laws reduce the costs of investing in precious metals, holding physical gold and silver increasingly provides a hedge against this hidden tax.
Should the bills in Kansas, Kentucky, Georgia, and Wisconsin be enacted, state lawmakers will have offered their citizens a more secure financial future.
END
2) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
MATHEW PIEPENBURG
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES:
4. OTHER GOLD/SILVER //COMMENTARIES//
Global Silver Demand Forecasted to Rise to 1.2 Billion Ounces in 2024 |
END
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES /
END
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
end
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 7.1779
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1890
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 41.98 PTS OR 1.48%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 218.38 PTS OR 1.39%
2. Nikkei closed UP 220.85 PTS OR 0.61%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 103.36 EURO FALLS TO 1.0836 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +.726 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.83/JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP// OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.2385***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.786** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.157…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.242
3j Gold at $2039.00 silver at: 23.12 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 1 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 89.72//
3m oil into the 77 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147,83// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.726% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8635 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9357 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.036 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.252 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.322 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.36…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 4 BASIS PTS AT 3.9239
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge
Futures Slide Dragged by Tech Giants Ahead Of Fed Decision
WEDNESDAY, JAN 31, 2024 – 08:16 AM
US equity futures slumped after earnings from tech giants GOOGL, MSFT and AMD fell short of Wall Street’s lofty expectations and as investors prepared for the first interest-rate decision of the year from the Fed (full preview here).
As of 7:45am ET, contracts on the Nasdaq 100 slid 1.1%, while those on the S&P 500 retreated 0.5% with Microsoft, Alphabet and Advanced Micro Devices all sliding in premarket after their updates failed to match the market hype around tech megacaps and artificial intelligence that has helped drive the recent record-setting rally in US stocks. The balance of MegaCaps are also lower as we await the Fed. Bond yields are modestly lower as part of a bull steepening; the US dollar is stronger despite consensus expecting more dovish signaling from Powell, and commodities are mixed. JPM asks if with Russell futs positive, will we see the pain trade (+Value/-Growth with MegaCap underperformance) come to fruition near-term? The macro data focus is on ADP, ECI (Fed’s preferred measure of wage inflation), Chicago PMIs, Trsy Refunding Announcement, and then Fed meeting later today.
As noted above, the biggest premarket movers were the tech giants as Microsoft, Alphabet and chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices all fell short of the bonanza required to satisfy. Microsoft’s revenue growth was the strongest since 2022 and AI products helped with that, but there were hopes for even more given the run in its shares in recent weeks that took its market value over $3 trillion. Alphabet, meanwhile, was hit by a miss in its core Google search advertising business, and AMD’s lackluster outlook overshadowed its AI chip prospects. All three are lower in premarket trading. In other individual stock moves, Paramount Global soared 21% after Bloomberg reported that media mogul Byron Allen made a $14.3 billion offer for the company. Tesla fell as much as 3.4% after Elon Musk’s $55 billion pay package at the electric automaker was struck down by a Delaware judge. Here are all the notable premarket movers:
- Advanced Micro Devices slips 5% after the chipmaker gave a revenue forecast that was weaker than expected.
- Alphabet falls 5.6% reporting fourth-quarter revenue from its core search advertising business that fell short of analysts’ estimates.
- Boston Scientific jumps 3% after the company reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Mondelez falls 4% after the maker of Oreo cookies issued weaker-than-expected guidance for full-year organic net revenue growth.
- Paramount Global soars 17% after Bloomberg reported that media mogul Byron Allen has made a $14.3 billion offer to buy all of the outstanding shares of the company.
- Rockwell Automation slides 7.9% after reporting first-quarter sales and adjusted earnings per share that trailed the average analyst estimates.
- SoFi Technologies slips 3% as Morgan Stanley issued a downgrade, flagging near-term revenue headwinds.
- Starbucks gains 3% as management maintained confidence in the company’s 2024 profit goal, predicting that greater efficiency, new stores and a core of loyal customers will offset a dip in revenue growth.
- Stryker climbs 5% after the medical-device manufacturer forecast for 2024 that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Tesla shares fall 2.6% after top boss Elon Musk’s $55 billion pay package at the electric automaker was struck down by a Delaware judge.
Attention now turns later to the Fed, with the Federal Open Market Committee poised to keep rates unchanged but indicated no more tightening bias (see our preview here). The rate decision and accompanying statement will be released at 2 p.m. in Washington, with Chair Jerome Powell holding a press conference 30 minutes later. Traders see a roughly 40% chance the central bank will lower rates for the first time in March, but most Fed officials have said it’s too soon to speculate on such a pivot. While Powell may say that recent declines in inflation are encouraging, he may still show little urgency to ease, given resilience in the labor market and growth in the economy.
“Even if it’s not our scenario, we expect the Fed to keep the door open for a possible rate cut in March, without sending a firm and definitive signal,” said Alexandre Hezez, chief investment officer at Group Richelieu in Paris. A proposed redline statement from Barclays is shown below.
While we have more US megacap earnings after the close today and tomorrow, it’s a busy day of earnings in Europe too: Novo Nordisk A/S became only the second European company to reach a market value of $500 billion after it said sales and profit will surge again this year thanks to its blockbuster obesity shot Wegovy. Shares in Hennes & Mauritz AB plunged as much as 11% after the retailer missed profit estimates and its chief executive officer stepped down. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index edged higher with the insurance and real estate sectors rising most, while retailers fall after fast fashion giant H&M reported poor 4Q results. Here are the biggest European movers:
- Novo Nordisk climbs as much as 4.1%, taking the Danish drugmaker’s market value to $500 billion for the first time after announcing fresh guidance for 2024 and strong 4Q results
- Beijer Ref gains as much as 11% after the Swedish industrial ventilation firm reported 4Q earnings that Jefferies say were solid, with upbeat outlook commentary the key positive
- Wartsila rises as much as 7.2% to hit its highest level in four-and-a-half years after the company, which serves the marine and energy markets, said it expects demand to improve in 2024
- SEB shares jump as much as 7.9%, the most since October, after the French appliances maker forecast a full-year operating result of more than 15%, compared the previous 10% prediction
- Borregaard climbs as much as 9.4% to highest since June after Norwegian supplier of specialized biochemicals posted fourth-quarter Ebitda that Carnegie said showed strong results
- KPN climbs after raising FY free cash flow guidance and beating analyst estimates on the metric for 4Q. Service revenue growth was seen as steady, hinting at a healthy Dutch market
- Hennes & Mauritz drops as much as 10% after the clothing retailer reported 4Q operating profit that missed estimates; Bernstein says results showed weakness across the board
- Novartis shares fall as much as 5.3%, most since March 2022, after the Swiss pharma giant’s sales came in lower than analysts’ expectations, with key drugs missing estimates
- Raiffeisen Bank bank drops as much as 8.4% after fourth quarter net income missed expectations as the lender continued to reduce the volume of customer loans in Russia
- Vodafone shares drop as much as 4.1%, the most in two months, after its talks with Iliad to merge Italian operations fell through. Vodafone said it’s still in discussions with other bidders
Earlier in the session, in Asia, Japanese bond yields rose as a summary of the Bank of Japan’s meeting signaled it’s getting closer to raising its interest rate for the first time since 2007. Japanese stocks also gained, as signs that the BOJ may move to end negative rates boosted optimism over lenders’ profitability. Stocks in China and Hong Kong extended losses after data showed another month of contraction in China’s factory activity. Mainland shares wiped out all the gains spurred by hopes of stronger support measures by the authorities.
On the monetary policy front in Europe, data out Wednesday showed cooling price pressures in France, adding to optimism that the ECB may begin trimming rates as soon as April. The 10-year yield on German debt dropped as much as eight basis points, while the euro weakened. Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened against most of its Group-of-10 peers, while Treasury yields were slightly richer on the day, with futures off highs reached after steep gains for Australian bonds on domestic inflation data and gains for bunds during London morning on retail sales data. US session features ADP employment, quarterly refunding announcement and Fed rate decision. US yields remain within 1bp-2bp of Tuesday’s closing levels, off session lows; 10-year around 4.03% after briefly dropping below 4% during London morning; bunds outperform by 2.5bp in the 10-year sector, gilts by 1.5bp. Dollar issuance slate light so far; just one deal priced Tuesday, and muted activity is expected Wednesday ahead of Fed rate announcement; dealers are calling for around $150b of new supply in February. At 8:30am US Treasury is slated to announce sizes of note and bond auctions during the February-to-April quarter.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%, reversing three sessions of losses, as traders braced for the Federal Reserve to avoid signaling an imminent rate cut; Treasury yields fell 1-2bps across the curve.
- USD/JPY traded 0.1% higher at 147.78 after dropping 0.3% to 147.19; A summary of the BOJ’s meeting signaled the central bank is moving closer to raising rates.
- AUD/USD fell as much as 0.7% to 0.6559, the lowest level in a week, as Australian inflation eased more than expecting boosting bets on a pivot to rate cuts.
- EUR/USD dropped as much as 0.4% to 1.0806 before paring losses after French inflation dropped to its lowest level since before Russia invaded Ukraine; German unemployment unexpectedly decreased in January pointing to labor market resilience.
In commodities, oil headed for its first monthly gain since September as an escalation of attacks on ships in the Red Sea spurred a diversion of tanker traffic and raised fears about a wider conflict in the Middle East. On Wednesday, WTI fell 1.3% to trade near $76.80. Gold was flat, trading around $2,037.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlights will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference, along with the quarterly refunding announcement from the US Treasury. On the data side, we’ll get the flash CPI releases for January from Germany and France, and in the US, there’s the ADP’s report of private payrolls for January and the Q4 Employment Cost Index. Finally, earnings releases include Boeing and Mastercard.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 4,925.25
- MXAP up 0.2% to 165.91
- MXAPJ down 0.4% to 502.98
- Nikkei up 0.6% to 36,286.71
- Topix up 1.0% to 2,551.10
- Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 15,485.07
- Shanghai Composite down 1.5% to 2,788.55
- Sensex up 0.8% to 71,701.22
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.1% to 7,680.72
- Kospi little changed at 2,497.09
- STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 486.07
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.21%
- Euro little changed at $1.0835
- Brent Futures down 1.0% to $82.04/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.1% to $2,039.51
- U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 103.47
Top Overnight News
- Australia’s CPI for Q4 undershoots the Street consensus at +4.1% Y/Y (vs. the Street’s +4.3% forecast). RTRS
- China’s NBS PMIs are mixed for Jan, with manufacturing coming in at 49.2 (up from 49 in Dec, but below the Street’s 49.3 forecast) and non-manufacturing at 50.7 (up from 50.4 in Dec and above the Street’s 50.6 forecast). WSJ
- A BOJ rate hike is getting closer, according to the summary of opinions from last week’s meeting. One member said there’s a “golden opportunity” to end negative rates before a Fed and ECB pivot. The yen rose and JGBs edged lower. BBG
- France’s CPI cools by more than anticipated in Jan, coming in +3.1% Y/Y (down from +3.7% in Dec and below the Street’s +3.3% forecast). BBG
- Iran signaled it’s prepared to hit back against any US strike on its soil or assets abroad, as the White House readies a response to a drone attack that killed three American soldiers over the weekend. BBG
- Paramount soared about 15% premarket after Byron Allen was said to have offered $14.3 billion for all of the outstanding shares. His plan is to sell the film studio, real estate and some intellectual property, while keeping the TV channels including the Paramount+ streaming service. He’s said to have banks and other investors lined up. BBG
- January FOMC Preview: Keeping a March Cut on the Table (Mericle): FOMC will likely aim to keep a March cut on the table without sending a decisive signal by removing the outdated hiking bias from its statement and noting that future policy changes will depend on upcoming inflation and other data. We continue to expect the FOMC to deliver a first cut in March and 5 cuts in total in 2024. The main reason is that progress on inflation has already surpassed the threshold the FOMC has given. GIR
- GOOGL -4% .. Solid topline, miss on headline OI (search OI beat though) ….Total Revs $86.31 (+13% y/ cc) vs cons $85.34bn .. Search $48.02bn (+13% y/y) vs cons $48.1bn … YouTube $9.2bn (+15.5% y/y) vs cons $9.2bn … Google Cloud $9.19bn vs cons $8.94bn. Total Op Income $23.68bn vs cons $23.8bn … Google Services OI $26.73bn vs cons $25.78bn … Google Cloud OI $864mn vs cons $357mn. EPS $1.64 vs cons $1.59. Employees up small q/q to 182,502(+121 q/q). GS GBM
- Heading into January month-end, the Goldman desk’s model estimates $10 billion of US equities to sell from US pensions given the moves in equities and bonds over the month. Note, we saw one trigger event on Jan 10th in which $12bn of US equities were sold, bringing aggregate selling in January to -$22bn by month-end. GS GBM
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly subdued amid a deluge of earnings releases and key data releases at month-end. ASX 200 shrugged off early weakness and printed record highs as yields fell after softer-than-expected inflation. Nikkei 225 initially retreated following disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales data, while hawkish-leaning comments from the BoJ Summary of Opinions also provided a headwind for stocks. However, the index then gradually recovered all of its losses. KOSPI was subdued after results from Samsung Electronics which topped estimates but its profits declined. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp underperformed following the latest Chinese PMI data in which Manufacturing PMI matched estimates and remained in contraction territory for a 4th consecutive month.
Top Asian News
- BoJ Summary of Opinions from the January meeting stated a member said that the BoJ must patiently maintain monetary easing under YCC, while the positive wage-inflation spiral must strengthen further and wage growth must exceed 2% to reach the price target. A member said the prerequisite for policy change including ending negative rates, appears to be falling into place given improvements in the economy and prices, while a member said they are now likely at a phase where they need to confirm through specific data the likelihood of achieving 2% inflation. Furthermore, a member said there is a strong chance they can judge that policy normalisation is possible once they can confirm the impact of the quake on the economy in the coming 1-2 months, while a member stated they must deepen the exit debate as the likelihood of achieving the price target has heightened and it was also stated that BoJ could be forced to sharply tighten monetary policy if its decision to end the negative rate comes too late.
- Chinese President Xi promised US President Biden that China wouldn’t interfere in the 2024 US presidential election, when they met last November, which China’s Foreign Minister reiterated to the US National Security Adviser over the weekend, according to CNN.
- IMF senior official said Chinese authorities need to give a consistent and clear set of messages to address property sector woes and need to separate viable from non-viable while protecting homebuyers, while the official added that going forward, they would prefer if there were more policy rate cuts than bank reserve cuts in China.
- China’s major state-owned banks seen selling dollars in onshore foreign exchange market on Wednesday, according to Reuters sources
- Joint Saudi-Kuwaiti statement: Acknowledges the close cooperation between the two sides in the field of energy, and acknowledges the successful efforts of the OPEC+ countries in enhancing the stability of global oil markets, according to Asharq News.
- Saudi Arabia’s decision on capacity was reportedly at least six months in the making based on uncertainty around the need for additional spare capacity, according to industry sources cited by Reuters.
- United Microelectronics Corporation (2303 TT) Q4 (TWD): Consolidated revenue 54.96bln (prev. 67.84bln Y/Y). Gross margin 32.4% (prev. 42.9% Y/Y). “We anticipate overall wafer demand will increase mildly, however, customers maintain a cautious approach”
European bourses are generally lower, with clear underperformance in the SMI, post-Novartis earnings. European sectors hold a positive tilt; Retail lags hampered by losses in H&M (-8.8%) post-earnings; Insurance tops the pile. US equity futures (ES -0.5%, NQ -1.3%, RTY +0.4%) is on a mixed footing; with clear underperformance in the tech-heavy NQ following after-hours earnings from MSFT (-1.5%), GOOG (-5.5%) and AMD (-6.6%), detailed below. Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings from Novartis, Novo Nordisk, GSK & more.
Top European News
- The Times shadow MPC voted 8-1 in favour of keeping the base rate unchanged at 5.25% with the lone dissenter voting for a 25bps hike, while it said the BoE should avoid signalling to investors where it intends to shift monetary policy over the coming months.
- UK Chancellor Hunt has reportedly warned his cabinet that tax cuts in the Spring budget could be smaller than expected amid “major structural weaknesses” in the UK economy, according to The Times. Hunt reportedly said there is likely to be less headroom for tax cuts than in the Autumn statement.
- Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG GY) CEO says freight rates are rising in Q1 2024 vs Q4 2023; better profit prospects for current quarter; “We do not believe the Red Sea crisis will be over soon, will probably take months”
Earnings
- Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) – Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 1.64 (exp. 1.59), Revenue 86.31bln (exp. 85.33bln). Google advertising revenue USD 65.52bln (exp. 65.8bln). YouTube ads revenue USD 9.20bln (exp. 9.16bln). Google Services revenue USD 76.31bln (exp. 75.97bln). Google Cloud revenue USD 9.19bln (exp. 8.95bln). Other Bets revenue USD 657mln (exp. 298.6mln). Co. is taking action to optimise global office space. Executive says Co. saw ad strength in retail, while CFO says search remained the biggest contributor to revenue growth and operating cost increase primarily reflected by growing R&D expenses. (Newswires) Shares -5.5% pre-market
- Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) – Q4 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.77 (exp. 0.77), Revenue 6.17bln (exp. 6.12bln). Data centre revenue USD 2.28bln (exp. 2.3bln).Gaming revenue USD 1.37bln (exp. 1.25bln). Client revenue USD 1.46bln (exp. 1.51bln). Embedded revenue USD 1.06bln (exp. 1.06bln). Sees Q1 rev. USD of approximately USD 5.4bln +/- USD 300mln (exp. 5.77bln). Sees Q1 adj. gross margin about 52% (exp. 51.8%). (Newswires) Shares -6.7% pre-market
- Microsoft Corp (MSFT) – Q2 2024 (USD): EPS 2.93 (exp. 2.78), Revenue 62.02bln (exp. 61.1bln). Cloud revenue 33.7bln (exp. 32.31bln). Revenue breakdown (USD): Intelligent Cloud revenue 25.88bln (exp. 25.29bln). Productivity and Business Processes revenue 19.25bln (exp. 19.03bln). More Personal Computing revenue 16.89bln (exp. 16.8bln). Other metrics: (USD) Capital expenditure 9.74bln. Operating income 27.03bln. Says 6 points of Azure revenue growth is attributable to AI, up from 3 points growth in the prior quarter, via co. exec in an interview. Office Commercial paid seats rose to 400mln from 382mln in Q3 23. CEO says now 53,000 Azure AI customers and one-third were new to Azure in the past 12 months, adds over half of Fortune 500 companies use Azure’s OpenAI AI services, seeing an increase in billion-dollar-plus Azure commitments. Q3 Guidance (via earnings call). Sees Q3 rev. USD 60bln-61bln (exp. 60.86bln) .Sees Productivity and Business Processes rev. 19.3bln-19.6bln (exp. 19.5bln).Sees Intelligent Cloud rev. 26.0bln-26.3bln (exp. 25.9bln). Sees More Personal Computing rev. 14.7bln-15.1bln (exp. 15.4bln). Sees Operating Expenses 15.8bln-15.9bln (exp. 16.5bln).Sees COGS 18.6bln-18.8bln (exp. 19.5bln)Shares -1.3% pre-market
- Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) – FY (DKK): Revenue 232.26bln (exp. 229.24bln), EPS 18.62 (exp. 18.32). New share buyback programme of up to DKK 20bln. The outlook reflects the gradual roll-out of Wegovy with capped volumes in international operations. Started increasing lower strength Wegovy within the US during January. Sees continued periodic supply constraints and related drug shortage notifications across a number of products and geographies. Q4: Wegovy Sales 9.62bln (prev. 2.45bln). Revenue 65.86bln (exp. 62.27bln). EBIT 26.7bln (exp. 24.9bln). FY24 Guidance: Sales: 18-26% (exp. 23.3%). Capex 45bln. adj. FCF 64-74bln. Co. has around a 2.8% weighting in the Stoxx Europe 600 (the largest in the index). Shares +1.1% in European trade
- Novartis (NOVN SW) – Q4 (USD): Revenue 11.4bln (exp. 11.7bln), Core EPS 1.53 (exp. 1.67), Core Net Income 3.12bln (exp. 3.34bln), Operating Income 3.8bln. FY23 dividend 3.30/shr, +3.1% (exp. 3.60). Net sales growth was driven primarily by strong performance for Entresto +31%, Kesimpta +99%, Kisqali +75%, Pluvicto +261% & Semblix +179%. Expect sales growth of 5% per annum until 2028, core operating margin at circa. 40% by 2027. (Newswires) Co. has around a 2% weighting in the Stoxx Europe 600 & and around a 16% weight in the SMI. Shares -3.5% in European trade
- GSK (GSK LN) – FY (GBP): Sales 30.33bln (exp. 29.81bln), adj. EPS 1.55 (exp. 1.52), adj. Operating Profit 8.78bln (exp. 8.77bln), Dividend 0.58/shr (exp. 0.57/shr). FY (continued): Shingrix sales 3.4bln, +17% (exp. increase mid-teen %) Arexvy sales 1.2bln (exp. 0.9-1.0bln). Vaccine sales +25% (exp. around 20%). adj. Speciality Medicine sales +15% (exp. increase low double-digit). Q4: adj. EPS 0.289 (exp. 0.299). Revenue 8.05bln (exp. 7.29bln). FY24 Guidance Dividend 0.60/shr (exp. 0.61/shr). Adverse impact of lower COVID-19 sales seen at 1pp of growth in sales. Commentary/CEO: 2031 sales outlook increased to over 38bln (upgraded). 2021-2026 outlook increased to sales more than +7% CAGR and Adjusted operating profit more than +11% CAGR. 2028-2030 is expected to see stable operating margins; given the likely loss of exclusivity for Dolutegravir during the period within the EU & US. Planning for at least 12 major launches from 2025. Strong pipeline progress, with 4 major product approvals: Arexvy RSV vaccine; Apretude for HIV prevention; Ojjaara for myelofibrosis and Jemperli in 1L endometrial cancer. (Newswires) Shares -0.9% in European trade
FX
- The Dollar Index is marginally firmer but once again finds itself pivoting around the 103.50 mark as has been the case in recent sessions. For now it is contained within yesterday’s 103.31-82 range with impetus expected from the FOMC.
- The EUR is a touch softer vs. the USD as the single-currency digests a soft French CPI and hawkishly-viewed German State CPI; EUR/USD is holding onto a 1.08 handle but a breach would see the YTD low at 1.0769 come into view.
- JPY is the marginal outperformer vs. the USD; still contained within yesterday’s 147.10-92 range with techs highlighting 10DMA at 147.86 and 100DMA at 147.47.
- AUD is the laggard within the antipodes as soft CPI metrics drag the currency lower. AUD ventured to a low of 0.6560 and further Downside sees 23rd Jan low at 0.6551. NZD steady on a 0.61 handle in what has been dull trade for the pair in recent sessions.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1039 vs exp. 7.1727 (prev. 7.1055).
Fied Income
- USTs are currently bid and the yield curve is marginally steeper, benchmark up to a 112-02 high. The docket is dominated by Quarterly Refunding (Monday’s estimates point to a smaller increase than forecast) and thereafter the FOMC/Powell.
- Bunds were initially bullish and shrugged off a hawkish handover from JGBs after the BoJ SOO; however, the deluge of German State CPIs were hotter Y/Y than consensus for the mainland implies and spurred a hawkish move down to 135.19.
- Gilt price action has largely taken impetus from EGBs awaiting the BoE on Thursday.
- Italy opens books to sell 15-year EUR benchmark; guidance seen +13bps to BTPs; pricing today
Commodities
- Softer trade across crude amid the overall downbeat risk tone in the market and the firmer Dollar. Sentiment for the complex is weighed on by Chinese Manufacturing PMI remaining in contraction whilst bullish Private Inventories, geopolitics, and energy commentary this morning are largely overlooked.
- Contained trade in spot gold ahead of the FOMC policy decision; XAU sees its 21 DMA (USD 2,030.10/oz) and 50 DMA (2,029.83/oz) converge.
- Chinese PMIs weighed on base metals overnight as Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory for a fourth consecutive month.
- US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.5mln (exp. -0.2mln), Gasoline +0.6mln (exp. +1.5mln), Distillate -2.1mln (exp. -0.4mln), Cushing -2.0mln.
- US seeks to buy about 3mln bbls of US-produced sour crude for the SPR for a June delivery.
Geopolitics
- Iran’s envoy to the UN said any attack on Iran, its interests or its nationals outside of its borders will be met with a definitive response, according to IRNA.
- US military said it shot down an anti-ship cruise missile fired by Yemen Houthis into the Red Sea, according to Reuters.
- Houthis say they fired missiles at US warship Greifley, and say they will target US, UK warships in ‘self-defence’, according to Al Arabiya
US Event Calendar
- 07:00: Jan. MBA Mortgage Applications -7.2%, prior 3.7%
- 08:15: Jan. ADP Employment Change, est. 150,000, prior 164,000
- 08:30: 4Q Employment Cost Index, est. 1.0%, prior 1.1%
- 09:45: Jan. MNI Chicago PMI, est. 48.0, prior 46.9, revised 47.2
- 14:00: Jan. FOMC Rate Decision
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The main event over the last 24 hours occurred after the US closing bell as results from Microsoft and Alphabet last night soured risk sentiment. Both of the tech giants narrowly beat revenue and earnings estimates, but saw an underwhelming reaction in after-hours trading. Alphabet slid more than 5% amid lower-than-anticipated advertising revenues for Google. Microsoft declined by as much as 3% initially, arguably signalling some overextension of the recent strong rally, but largely reversed this decline after its outlook call later in the evening. Combined the two companies represent a near $5trn market cap, equating to 11.5% of the S&P 500 so very important for market direction alongside Apple, Amazon and Meta (a combined 13% of the S&P) who report tomorrow night. In addition last night, chipmaker AMD (market cap $278bn) fell as much as -6% after hours post a disappointing sales outlook.
Prior to these results, tech mega caps had underperformed yesterday, with the Magnificent Seven down -0.61% from Monday’s all-time high, led by Apple (-1.92%). Following last night’s results, NASDAQ futures are trading -0.80% lower this morning, following on from a -0.76% decline yesterday, while S&P 500 futures are down -0.37% (after -0.06% yesterday). The late risk-off tone also saw 10yr Treasury yields fall by 2-3bps near end of the session, closing -4.2bps lower on the day. There has been another -2bps fall overnight leaving 10yr yields at 4.01%.
Before the earnings, markets were subdued ahead of the after bell activity and the Fed’s decision today. The main theme was investors dialling back the likely speed of rate cuts after another round of positive data. For instance, the US Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading hit a two-year high, the JOLTS release saw job openings unexpectedly rise, and the Euro Area managed to avoid a technical recession in Q4. So a lot of good news all round. But with the data still surprising on the upside, it’s led to growing questions about whether the Fed will actually be wise to cut rates as soon as March. Indeed, futures lowered the probability to 44% yesterday from 48% the day before (and this was as low as 37% intra-day yesterday). And looking further out, at the close they were pricing 132bps of cuts by the December meeting, the joint lowest since the December FOMC.
When it comes to the Fed, it’s widely expected they’ll leave rates unchanged today, so the big question instead is what they signal about the timing and speed of rate cuts moving forward. That’s something they’ve explicitly acknowledged, since their dot plot at the last meeting in December pencilled in 75bps of cuts this year, which triggered a significant market rally in response. In their preview (link here), our US economists expect the FOMC to leave behind its tightening bias, and think the post-meeting statement will likely drop the reference to “the extent of additional policy firming”. In terms the next meeting in March, they think Powell will leave the door open for a potential cut, but will not express urgency around cutting rates, thus keeping open the timing of any move.
Diving into more detail on the strong data, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading rose to 114.8 in January, which was the highest since December 2021. Moreover, the present situation component was up to 161.3, which is the highest reading since March 2020, so there were lots of positive signs in the report. Likewise on the labour market, the difference between those saying jobs were “plentiful” and those saying they were “hard to get” rose to a 9-month high of 35.7%. And that in turn was backed up by the JOLTS report for December, where job openings unexpectedly rose to 9.026m in December (vs. 8.75m expected), which offered fresh signs that labour demand was still robust.
Those releases led to growing confidence that the Fed would be keeping rates on hold until at least the May meeting. But the optimism was clear in Europe too, since the Q4 GDP release showed zero growth, rather than the -0.1% contraction expected. Significantly, that means the Euro Area avoided a technical recession, as the Q3 number had a -0.1% contraction, so a Q4 contraction would have meant the economy had contracted for two consecutive quarters. As with the Fed, that led investors to dial back the amount of ECB cuts priced in, and the chance of a cut by April went from being fully priced on Tuesday, to 92% by the close yesterday.
The Fed will now help set the agenda from here, but if that wasn’t enough, today will also bring the US Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement, which will see them announce their plans for which notes and bonds they intend to issue. That follows the borrowing estimates on Monday, which triggered a rally in Treasuries after they expected to borrow $760bn over Q1, which was down from its Q4 levels. These didn’t use to attract as much notice, but the QRA was seen as one of the triggers for the major bond selloff from the start of August, as well as the recovery that took place from November onwards, shortly after the 10yr Treasury yield had hit 5% intraday. So these have been associated with important turning points in recent months, although it’s fair to say there’ve also been other factors as well, not least the Federal Reserve’s outlook as well as the inflation data.
When it came to markets over the last 24 hours, US Treasuries saw a noticeable flattening as investors became less confident about the prospect of near-term cuts. That meant the 2yr yield was up +1.5bps to 4.335%, whereas the 10yr yield ended the day down -4.2bps at 4.03%, its lowest in two weeks, despite a brief spike in yields after the Conference Board and JOLTS data came out.
Over in Europe however, there was a sizeable rise in yields across the curve, with those on 10yr bunds (+3.3bps), OATs (+3.9bps) and BTPs (+6.5bps) moving higher. In Europe, we also started to get some of the flash CPI releases for January, with Spanish CPI unexpectedly rising +3.5% on the EU-harmonised measure (vs. +3.0% expected). Today we’ll also get the French and German numbers, ahead of the Euro Area-wide release tomorrow.
For equities, there was a pretty subdued performance. The STOXX 600 (+0.16%) eked out a fresh two-year high, but the S&P 500 retreated marginally (-0.06%) led by the declines for tech stocks. The Russell 2000 (-0.76%) ended a run of three consecutive gains. At the other end, financials led the day’s outperformers, with the S&P 500 banks index up +2.13%.
Asian equity markets are mostly struggling this morning with the Hang Seng (-1.34%) leading losses with the CSI (-0.65%) and the Shanghai Composite (-1 0%) also trading in the red after another month of contraction in China’s manufacturing activity (more below). The KOSPI (-0.30%) is also down after the index heavyweight Samsung Electronics reported a -34% drop in fourth quarter operating profit as consumer demand remained sluggish in many businesses.
Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.3%) has progressively moved higher from opening losses led by financials as the BOJ’s summary of opinions signalled an increasing probability of ending negative rates in the near future without providing a timetable.
However the Japanese yen failed to build on its initial uptick against the dollar after the release of retail sales and industrial production figures for December. Retail sales unexpectedly contracted -2.9% m/m in December (v/s +0.2% expected) as against a revised +1.1% gain in the preceding month while the factory output rebounded +1.8% y/y in December (v/s +2.5% expected), compared to November’s -0.9% drop. So a confusing picture in Japan overnight.
Elsewhere we got our first look at China’s official 2024 PMI data which showed that manufacturing activity shrank for the fourth consecutive month in January albeit the reading slightly improved to 49.2 versus 49.0 in December, highlighting that the sector remains under pressure amid a weak economic recovery. Meanwhile, the official non-manufacturing managers’ index continued to outperform as it edged up to 50.7 in January from 50.4 in December.
Elsewhere, Australia’s inflation in the fourth quarter rose +4.1% y/y (v/s +4.3% expected) and down from a +5.4% gain in the third quarter thus encouraging thoughts that the RBA’s next move will be a rate cut. For the quarter alone, CPI rose +0.6%, or half the pace of the September quarter. Following the release, yields on the policy-sensitive 3yr Australian government bonds dropped -10.0bps to trade at 3.61%.
Looking at yesterday’s other data, UK mortgage approvals were up to a six-month high of 50.5k in December (vs. 53.0k expected). Separately, the I MF also published their latest growth forecasts, and they now see the global economy expanding by +3.1% in 2024, which is up two-tenths from their October projection.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlights will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference, along with the quarterly refunding announcement from the US Treasury. On the data side, we’ll get the flash CPI releases for January from Germany and France, and in the US, there’s the ADP’s report of private payrolls for January and the Q4 Employment Cost Index. Finally, earnings releases include Boeing and Mastercard.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities lower with clear underperformance in the NQ after tech earnings, Bunds off best levels post-German data; US ADP due – Newsquawk US Market Open
WEDNESDAY, JAN 31, 2024 – 06:05 AM
- European bourses are lower with underperformance in the SMI post-Novartis earnings; US equity futures are mixed, though with clear underperformance in the NQ after MSFT, AMD & GOOG earnings
- Dollar continues its contained trade, AUD underperforms amid softer CPI data
- Bonds modestly firmer; Bunds off best levels post-German data
- Crude is weaker amid the downbeat risk tone; XAU in a holding pattern awaiting impetus from the FOMC
- Looking ahead, US ADP, Employment Wages, Canadian GDP, Fed & BCB Policy Announcement, Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference, Supply from Germany, US Treasury Refunding Announcement Earnings from Boeing, Boston Scientific, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Mastercard & Phillips 66
More Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are generally lower, with clear underperformance in the SMI, post-Novartis earnings.
- European sectors hold a positive tilt; Retail lags hampered by losses in H&M (-8.8%) post-earnings; Insurance tops the pile.
- US equity futures (ES -0.5%, NQ -1.3%, RTY +0.4%) is on a mixed footing; with clear underperformance in the tech-heavy NQ following after-hours earnings from MSFT (-1.5%), GOOG (-5.5%) and AMD (-6.6%), detailed below.
- Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings from Novartis, Novo Nordisk, GSK & more.
- Click here for more details.
FX
- The Dollar Index is marginally firmer but once again finds itself pivoting around the 103.50 mark as has been the case in recent sessions. For now it is contained within yesterday’s 103.31-82 range with impetus expected from the FOMC.
- The EUR is a touch softer vs. the USD as the single-currency digests a soft French CPI and hawkishly-viewed German State CPI; EUR/USD is holding onto a 1.08 handle but a breach would see the YTD low at 1.0769 come into view.
- JPY is the marginal outperformer vs. the USD; still contained within yesterday’s 147.10-92 range with techs highlighting 10DMA at 147.86 and 100DMA at 147.47.
- AUD is the laggard within the antipodes as soft CPI metrics drag the currency lower. AUD ventured to a low of 0.6560 and further Downside sees 23rd Jan low at 0.6551. NZD steady on a 0.61 handle in what has been dull trade for the pair in recent sessions.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1039 vs exp. 7.1727 (prev. 7.1055).
- Click here for more details.
- Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are currently bid and the yield curve is marginally steeper, benchmark up to a 112-02 high. The docket is dominated by Quarterly Refunding (Monday’s estimates point to a smaller increase than forecast) and thereafter the FOMC/Powell.
- Bunds were initially bullish and shrugged off a hawkish handover from JGBs after the BoJ SOO; however, the deluge of German State CPIs were hotter Y/Y than consensus for the mainland implies and spurred a hawkish move down to 135.19.
- Gilt price action has largely taken impetus from EGBs awaiting the BoE on Thursday.
- Italy opens books to sell 15-year EUR benchmark; guidance seen +13bps to BTPs; pricing today
- Click here for more details.
COMMODITIES
- Softer trade across crude amid the overall downbeat risk tone in the market and the firmer Dollar. Sentiment for the complex is weighed on by Chinese Manufacturing PMI remaining in contraction whilst bullish Private Inventories, geopolitics, and energy commentary this morning are largely overlooked.
- Contained trade in spot gold ahead of the FOMC policy decision; XAU sees its 21 DMA (USD 2,030.10/oz) and 50 DMA (2,029.83/oz) converge.
- Chinese PMIs weighed on base metals overnight as Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory for a fourth consecutive month.
- US Energy Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.5mln (exp. -0.2mln), Gasoline +0.6mln (exp. +1.5mln), Distillate -2.1mln (exp. -0.4mln), Cushing -2.0mln.
- US seeks to buy about 3mln bbls of US-produced sour crude for the SPR for a June delivery.
- Click here for more details.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- The Times shadow MPC voted 8-1 in favour of keeping the base rate unchanged at 5.25% with the lone dissenter voting for a 25bps hike, while it said the BoE should avoid signalling to investors where it intends to shift monetary policy over the coming months.
- UK Chancellor Hunt has reportedly warned his cabinet that tax cuts in the Spring budget could be smaller than expected amid “major structural weaknesses” in the UK economy, according to The Times. Hunt reportedly said there is likely to be less headroom for tax cuts than in the Autumn statement.
- Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG GY) CEO says freight rates are rising in Q1 2024 vs Q4 2023; better profit prospects for current quarter; “We do not believe the Red Sea crisis will be over soon, will probably take months”
DATA RECAP
- German North Rhine-Westphalia State CPI MM (Jan) 0.3% (Prev. -0.1%); North Rhine-Westphalia State CPI YY (Jan) 3.0% (Prev. 3.5%); Overall, the state CPIs provide a slight hawkish bias to expectations for the 13:00GMT mainland Y/Y release, while the M/M is broadly in-line. Click here for more detail.
- German Retail Sales MM Real (Dec) -1.6% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. -2.5%)
- German Import Prices YY (Dec) -8.5% vs. Exp. -8.2% (Prev. -9.0%); Import Prices MM (Dec) -1.1% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. -0.1%); Retail Sales YY Real (Dec) -1.7% (Prev. -2.4%)
- German Unemployment Chg SA (Jan) -2.0k vs. Exp. 11.0k (Prev. 5.0k); Unemployment Rate SA (Jan) 5.8% vs. Exp. 5.9% (Prev. 5.9%); Unemployment Total SA (Jan) 2.694M (Prev. 2.703M); Unemployment Total NSA (Jan) 2.805M (Prev. 2.637M)
- French CPI Prelim YY NSA (Jan) 3.10% (Prev. 3.70%); CPI Prelim MM NSA (Jan) -0.2% (Prev. 0.10%); CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY (Jan) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 4.1%)
- French Producer Prices MM (Dec) 0.1% (Prev. 2.4%, Rev. 2.3%); Producer Prices YY (Dec) -0.90% (Prev. 0.30%)
- Spanish Retail Sales YY (Dec) 3.1% (Prev. 5.2%)
- UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Jan) 44 (Prev. 35)
- UK Nationwide house price yy (Jan) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.9% (Prev. -1.8%); UK Nationwide house price mm (Jan) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.1%; “While a rapid rebound in activity or house prices in 2024 appears unlikely, the outlook is looking a little more positive.”
- Italian Unemployment Rate (Dec) 7.2% vs. Exp. 7.6% (Prev. 7.5%, Rev. 7.4%)
- Swiss Retail Sales YY (Dec) -0.8% (Prev. 0.7%, Rev. -1.5%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 1.64 (exp. 1.59), Revenue 86.31bln (exp. 85.33bln), Google advertising revenue USD 65.52bln (exp. 65.8bln). YouTube ads revenue USD 9.20bln (exp. 9.16bln). Google Services revenue USD 76.31bln (exp. 75.97bln). Google Cloud revenue USD 9.19bln (exp. 8.95bln). Shares fell 5.8% aftermarket after advertising revenue missed expectations.
- Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q2 2024 (USD): EPS 2.93 (exp. 2.78), Revenue 62.02bln (exp. 61.1bln). Cloud revenue 33.7bln (exp. 32.31bln) Sees Q3 Revenue between USD 60bln-61bln (exp. 60.86bln) and Intelligent Cloud rev. 26.0bln-26.3bln (exp. 25.9bln), More Personal Computing rev. 14.7bln-15.1bln (exp. 15.4bln). Shares fell 0.3% aftermarket.
- A Delaware judge voided the USD 56bln pay package of Tesla (TSLA) CEO Musk, according to CNBC. Shares fell 2.6% aftermarket.
EARNINGS
- Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) – Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 1.64 (exp. 1.59), Revenue 86.31bln (exp. 85.33bln). Google advertising revenue USD 65.52bln (exp. 65.8bln). YouTube ads revenue USD 9.20bln (exp. 9.16bln). Google Services revenue USD 76.31bln (exp. 75.97bln). Google Cloud revenue USD 9.19bln (exp. 8.95bln). Other Bets revenue USD 657mln (exp. 298.6mln). Co. is taking action to optimise global office space. Executive says Co. saw ad strength in retail, while CFO says search remained the biggest contributor to revenue growth and operating cost increase primarily reflected by growing R&D expenses. (Newswires) Shares -5.5% pre-market
- Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) – Q4 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.77 (exp. 0.77), Revenue 6.17bln (exp. 6.12bln). Data centre revenue USD 2.28bln (exp. 2.3bln).Gaming revenue USD 1.37bln (exp. 1.25bln). Client revenue USD 1.46bln (exp. 1.51bln). Embedded revenue USD 1.06bln (exp. 1.06bln). Sees Q1 rev. USD of approximately USD 5.4bln +/- USD 300mln (exp. 5.77bln). Sees Q1 adj. gross margin about 52% (exp. 51.8%). (Newswires) Shares -6.7% pre-market
- Microsoft Corp (MSFT) – Q2 2024 (USD): EPS 2.93 (exp. 2.78), Revenue 62.02bln (exp. 61.1bln). Cloud revenue 33.7bln (exp. 32.31bln). Revenue breakdown (USD): Intelligent Cloud revenue 25.88bln (exp. 25.29bln). Productivity and Business Processes revenue 19.25bln (exp. 19.03bln). More Personal Computing revenue 16.89bln (exp. 16.8bln). Other metrics: (USD) Capital expenditure 9.74bln. Operating income 27.03bln. Says 6 points of Azure revenue growth is attributable to AI, up from 3 points growth in the prior quarter, via co. exec in an interview. Office Commercial paid seats rose to 400mln from 382mln in Q3 23. CEO says now 53,000 Azure AI customers and one-third were new to Azure in the past 12 months, adds over half of Fortune 500 companies use Azure’s OpenAI AI services, seeing an increase in billion-dollar-plus Azure commitments. Q3 Guidance (via earnings call). Sees Q3 rev. USD 60bln-61bln (exp. 60.86bln) .Sees Productivity and Business Processes rev. 19.3bln-19.6bln (exp. 19.5bln).Sees Intelligent Cloud rev. 26.0bln-26.3bln (exp. 25.9bln). Sees More Personal Computing rev. 14.7bln-15.1bln (exp. 15.4bln). Sees Operating Expenses 15.8bln-15.9bln (exp. 16.5bln).Sees COGS 18.6bln-18.8bln (exp. 19.5bln)Shares -1.3% pre-market
- Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) – FY (DKK): Revenue 232.26bln (exp. 229.24bln), EPS 18.62 (exp. 18.32). New share buyback programme of up to DKK 20bln. The outlook reflects the gradual roll-out of Wegovy with capped volumes in international operations. Started increasing lower strength Wegovy within the US during January. Sees continued periodic supply constraints and related drug shortage notifications across a number of products and geographies. Q4: Wegovy Sales 9.62bln (prev. 2.45bln). Revenue 65.86bln (exp. 62.27bln). EBIT 26.7bln (exp. 24.9bln). FY24 Guidance: Sales: 18-26% (exp. 23.3%). Capex 45bln. adj. FCF 64-74bln. Co. has around a 2.8% weighting in the Stoxx Europe 600 (the largest in the index). Shares +1.1% in European trade
- Novartis (NOVN SW) – Q4 (USD): Revenue 11.4bln (exp. 11.7bln), Core EPS 1.53 (exp. 1.67), Core Net Income 3.12bln (exp. 3.34bln), Operating Income 3.8bln. FY23 dividend 3.30/shr, +3.1% (exp. 3.60). Net sales growth was driven primarily by strong performance for Entresto +31%, Kesimpta +99%, Kisqali +75%, Pluvicto +261% & Semblix +179%. Expect sales growth of 5% per annum until 2028, core operating margin at circa. 40% by 2027. (Newswires) Co. has around a 2% weighting in the Stoxx Europe 600 & and around a 16% weight in the SMI. Shares -3.5% in European trade
- GSK (GSK LN) – FY (GBP): Sales 30.33bln (exp. 29.81bln), adj. EPS 1.55 (exp. 1.52), adj. Operating Profit 8.78bln (exp. 8.77bln), Dividend 0.58/shr (exp. 0.57/shr). FY (continued): Shingrix sales 3.4bln, +17% (exp. increase mid-teen %) Arexvy sales 1.2bln (exp. 0.9-1.0bln). Vaccine sales +25% (exp. around 20%). adj. Speciality Medicine sales +15% (exp. increase low double-digit). Q4: adj. EPS 0.289 (exp. 0.299). Revenue 8.05bln (exp. 7.29bln). FY24 Guidance Dividend 0.60/shr (exp. 0.61/shr). Adverse impact of lower COVID-19 sales seen at 1pp of growth in sales. Commentary/CEO: 2031 sales outlook increased to over 38bln (upgraded). 2021-2026 outlook increased to sales more than +7% CAGR and Adjusted operating profit more than +11% CAGR. 2028-2030 is expected to see stable operating margins; given the likely loss of exclusivity for Dolutegravir during the period within the EU & US. Planning for at least 12 major launches from 2025. Strong pipeline progress, with 4 major product approvals: Arexvy RSV vaccine; Apretude for HIV prevention; Ojjaara for myelofibrosis and Jemperli in 1L endometrial cancer. (Newswires) Shares -0.9% in European trade
GEOPOLITICS
- Iran’s envoy to the UN said any attack on Iran, its interests or its nationals outside of its borders will be met with a definitive response, according to IRNA.
- US military said it shot down an anti-ship cruise missile fired by Yemen Houthis into the Red Sea, according to Reuters.
- Houthis say they fired missiles at US warship Greifley, and say they will target US, UK warships in ‘self-defence’, according to Al Arabiya
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin (-1.9%) falls back below USD 43k, whilst Ethereum (-3.2%) posts losses to a slightly higher degree.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mostly subdued amid a deluge of earnings releases and key data releases at month-end.
- ASX 200 shrugged off early weakness and printed record highs as yields fell after softer-than-expected inflation.
- Nikkei 225 initially retreated following disappointing Industrial Production and Retail Sales data, while hawkish-leaning comments from the BoJ Summary of Opinions also provided a headwind for stocks. However, the index then gradually recovered all of its losses.
- KOSPI was subdued after results from Samsung Electronics which topped estimates but its profits declined.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp underperformed following the latest Chinese PMI data in which Manufacturing PMI matched estimates and remained in contraction territory for a 4th consecutive month.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoJ Summary of Opinions from the January meeting stated a member said that the BoJ must patiently maintain monetary easing under YCC, while the positive wage-inflation spiral must strengthen further and wage growth must exceed 2% to reach the price target. A member said the prerequisite for policy change including ending negative rates, appears to be falling into place given improvements in the economy and prices, while a member said they are now likely at a phase where they need to confirm through specific data the likelihood of achieving 2% inflation. Furthermore, a member said there is a strong chance they can judge that policy normalisation is possible once they can confirm the impact of the quake on the economy in the coming 1-2 months, while a member stated they must deepen the exit debate as the likelihood of achieving the price target has heightened and it was also stated that BoJ could be forced to sharply tighten monetary policy if its decision to end the negative rate comes too late.
- Chinese President Xi promised US President Biden that China wouldn’t interfere in the 2024 US presidential election, when they met last November, which China’s Foreign Minister reiterated to the US National Security Adviser over the weekend, according to CNN.
- IMF senior official said Chinese authorities need to give a consistent and clear set of messages to address property sector woes and need to separate viable from non-viable while protecting homebuyers, while the official added that going forward, they would prefer if there were more policy rate cuts than bank reserve cuts in China.
- China’s major state-owned banks seen selling dollars in onshore foreign exchange market on Wednesday, according to Reuters sources
- Joint Saudi-Kuwaiti statement: Acknowledges the close cooperation between the two sides in the field of energy, and acknowledges the successful efforts of the OPEC+ countries in enhancing the stability of global oil markets, according to Asharq News.
- Saudi Arabia’s decision on capacity was reportedly at least six months in the making based on uncertainty around the need for additional spare capacity, according to industry sources cited by Reuters.
- United Microelectronics Corporation (2303 TT) Q4 (TWD): Consolidated revenue 54.96bln (prev. 67.84bln Y/Y). Gross margin 32.4% (prev. 42.9% Y/Y). “We anticipate overall wafer demand will increase mildly, however, customers maintain a cautious approach”
DATA RECAP
- Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 49.2 vs. Exp. 49.2 (Prev. 49.0);Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 50.7 vs. Exp. 50.6 (Prev. 50.4); Composite PMI (Jan) 50.9 (Prev. 50.3)
- Japanese Industrial Production (Dec P) 1.8% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. -0.9%); Retail Sales YY (Dec) 2.1% vs. Exp. 4.7% (Prev. 5.3%, Rev. 5.4%)
- Australian CPI QQ (Q4) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 1.2%); CPI YY (Q4) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.3% (Prev. 5.4%); Weighted CPI YY (Dec) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 4.3%)
- New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (Jan) 36.6 (Prev. 33.2); ANZ Activity Outlook (Jan) 25.6 (Prev. 29.3)
2C ASIA AFFAIRS
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 41.98 PTS OR 1.48% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 218.38 PTS OR 1.39% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 220.85 OR 0.61% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.99% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1779 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1890 /Oil UP TO 77.01 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 81.67/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
END
3 CHINA
CHINA
END
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
EU/HUNGARY
EU are psychopaths. Orban is a good man trying to do his best for his country. Now the EU have been caught trying to sabotage the Hungarian economy.
(zerohedge)
Orban Hits Back After Secret EU Plan ‘To Sabotage Hungarian Economy’ Revealed
WEDNESDAY, JAN 31, 2024 – 02:45 AM
“Hungary does not allow blackmail,” Hungary’s minister for European affairs, Janos Boka, has lashed out in response to the FT-reported secret document showing the EU stands ready to inflict intentional damage to Hungary’s economy if Orban’s government persists in rejecting more funding for Ukraine. “The document, drafted by Brussels bureaucrats only confirms what the Hungarian Government has been saying for a long time: access to EU funds is used for political blackmailing by Brussels,” Boka emphasized on X.
EU leaders are expected in Brussels on Thursday (Feb 1st) in an effort to salvage and pass the €50bn four-year aid package to Ukraine which Budapest has been blocking. But if Orban doesn’t back down, EU leaders are reportedly ready to say ‘enough is enough’ – per Financial Times’ reporting, which openly uses the word “sabotage” to describe what other bloc members will seek to do to the Hungarian economy. Yet ironically enough, it remains officials in Brussels who are instead openly accusing Budapest of using blackmail related to Ukraine funding.
“In a document drawn up by EU officials and seen by the Financial Times, Brussels has outlined a strategy to explicitly target Hungary’s economic weaknesses, imperil its currency and drive a collapse in investor confidence in a bid to hurt “jobs and growth” if Budapest refuses to lift its veto against the aid to Kyiv,” FT writes.
It appears the nuclear option of final threats. Continues FT: “If he does not back down, other EU leaders should publicly vow to permanently shut off all EU funding to Budapest with the intention of spooking the markets, precipitating a run on the country’s forint currency and a surge in the cost of its borrowing, Brussels stated in the document.”
Viktor Orban’s office said in reaction to the revelation in the FT article, “Now it’s crystal clear: this is blackmail and has nothing to do with the rule of law. And now they’re not even trying to hide it! Whatever happens, change is needed in Brussels!”
FT has cited the draft secret document directly. It declares that “in the case of no agreement in the February 1 [summit], other heads of state and government would publicly declare that in the light of the unconstructive behaviour of the Hungarian PM … they cannot imagine that [EU funds would be provided to Budapest].”
While this is perhaps shaping up to be the most “overt” example of Brussels trying to force Budapest into line by targeting its whole economy, it’s certainly not the first time blackmail style rhetoric has been deployed, hearkening back to ‘rule of law’ issues and debate over “LGBTQ+” and other supposed ‘democratic backsliding’.
European Commission data indicates intra-EU trade accounts for 78% of Hungary’s exports, with a mere 3% going to the US and 3% to the UK. The EU plan cited in the report points out that “growth and jobs … depend to a large extent” on foreign money, including substantial EU funding. As news of the secret plan leaked the Hungarian currency, the forint, depreciated by 0.7% on Monday.
Interestingly, amid Hungary’s perceived intransigeance on the Ukraine funding issued (though it should be remembered it’s the Hungarian side saying the EU won’t compromise), some EU diplomats have begun to complain Europe is “starting to look weak”.
Orban on Tuesday has been reported as being ready to soften his stance, per Reuters: “Hungary is ready to participate in the solution of the 27 (EU member nations) if you guarantee that each year we will decide whether or not to send this money. And this annual decision must have the same legal basis as today: it must be unanimous,” the prime minister was quoted as saying, which is being widely seen as an opening toward significant compromise.
* * *
Below, Philip Pilkington of the Multipolarity podcast dissects some of the underlying assumptions of FT’s reporting, and looks at the question of ‘weakness’ [emphasis ZH]…
The most obvious is the idea that Hungary has “very high inflation”. In reality, after being very high previously, inflation in Hungary has come down rapidly, and is now just above 5% and is beating expectations. Errors like this suggest whoever put together the ‘strategy’ probably isn’t a very, shall we say, data-oriented economist. More likely a lawyer vaguely remembering FT headlines from 6 months previous that are now out of date.
It also highlights Hungary’s public deficit. Hungary’s public deficit is large because of energy subsidies, but this is the case across Europe. The Hungarian public deficit is currently 5.9% of GDP. Compare that to the Italian at 8% or the French at 4.8%. Hungary is somewhere in the middle. And it has a low public debt at 74% of GDP. France’s is 112%, Italy’s is 142%. This suggests that the authors just did a quick Wikipedia job trying to get scary numbers without contextualising them.
But more egregious is the lack of basic macro understanding. Whoever wrote it seems to think that if EU funds are withheld from Hungary, the Hungarian currency, the forint, will collapse. This is the only really meaty threat in the piece. But the forint is determined like most other DM currencies: by Hungary’s relative inflation rate and the central bank interest rate. Throughout the previous inflation, the central bank managed the forint’s adjustment pretty well.
My guess is that there’s some projection going on here. The lawyers that wrote the ‘attack strategy’ are aware that Ukraine’s currency relies on foreign aid – the foreign aid that Hungary is disputing – and simply assume Hungary’s does too. Basic lawyer brain.
Maybe the Brussels crowd can convince the financial press to weaponize their headlines against Hungary – this seems an increasingly common tactic at certain outlets, which are haemorrhaging credibility doing so – but it likely won’t make a difference. FDI flowing into Hungary is being deployed by investors that are aware the country is a ‘black sheep’ and are fully used to interpreting headlines through this lens. You can just about get away with weaponising headlines against China, playing on peoples’ unfamiliarity with the statistics and low-key racism but if you start doing this to a country whose statistics are published by Eurostat you’ll just look ill-informed and idiotic.
All in all, the EU ‘attack strategy’ is unserious. It was very likely not devised by economists or market-adjacent people. More likely by lawyers whose macro understanding comes from half-remembered newspaper clippings. It all looks a bit desperate, to be honest. A tale, told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
END
UBS/EVERGRANDE
(FROM GOLDEN TELEGRAPH)
Funds from UBS, among others, are reported to have some of the highest exposure to Evergrande over the past 12 months. Oops. Yes, I really don’t like it when taxpayers bail out bankers. I thought it was worth highlighting.
GoldTelegraph_ (@Gold Telegraph)
posted: Funds from UBS, among others, are reported to have some of the highest exposure to Evergrande over the past 12 months.
Oops.
Yes, I really don’t like it when taxpayers bail out bankers.
I thought it was worth highlighting. https://x.com/goldtelegraph_/status/1752405600380874948?s=51&t=KJhMYC7JpJ2yyFVh0iagig
end
Europe correctly revolts on garbage carbon footprints
(zerohedge)
Europe Erupts In Widespread Farmer Protests As Revolt Against ‘Green’ Policies Intensifies
WEDNESDAY, JAN 31, 2024 – 08:50 AM
Farmers in France, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Romania, and other countries across Europe are protesting radical leftist governments by obstructing major transport networks with tractors. This widespread populist movement is sweeping Europe at a time when over-regulation, taxes, and the climate change agenda threaten the livelihoods of not just farmers but working-class people and comes several months before the European election cycle kicks off in June.
Some countries hit hardest by protests have been Germany, Italy, Belgium, and France. Protests are expected to spread to Spain and Portugal.
On Tuesday, France’s new prime minister, Gabriel Attal, promised farmers emergency funds and stricter trade controls on foreign products to guarantee fair competition.
However, that might not have been enough, as the farmer’s union in France was unimpressed by concessions offered by the French government. They encouraged their members to continue the fight.
“I’m so proud of you,” Serge Bousquet-Cassagne, head of Lot-et-Garonne department’s farmer’s association, told protesters in the south of Paris.
Bousquet-Cassagne said:
“You are fighting this battle because if we don’t fight we die.”
Meanwhile, Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin told local TV station France 2 that police were preparing to defend strategic areas of larger cities.
“They can’t attack police, they can’t enter Rungis, they can’t enter the Paris airports or the center of Paris,” said Darmanin, adding, “But let me tell you again that if they try, we will be there.”
According to Armstrong Economics:
Farmers throughout the world have been protesting the increasing regulations on agriculture. The media is barely covering the story, and when they do mention it, they say that the farmers are protesting due to Russia blocking supplies from Ukraine. This is simply untrue. The farmers are protesting against over-regulation, taxes, and the climate change agenda that is making it increasingly difficult for them to make a successful living.
EU farmers’ complaints are very basic:
- Out-of-control energy prices (thank whoever blew up the Nord Stream).
- Disastours carbon-cutting targets.
- Overall inflation.
- Bureaucracy from radicals in Brussels.
- Ukrainian grain imports.
The demonstrations, which could soon consume Europe, come ahead of the June European Parliament elections.
Here are scenes on the ground as protests spread across Europe:
see zero hedge for scenes
And discontent is quickly spreading across the West. As we noted earlier this week: “Mess In The West: ‘Army Of God’ Convoy Heads To US Border While EU Farmers Block Cities.”
Unrest in the West is a symptom that leftist politicians are completely out of touch with the common man. Quickly, queue the next crisis. Is that the eruption of war or another virus?
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS/GAZA
IDF troops continue Gaza operations, eliminate Hamas terrorists
In recent days, combat units from Brigade 162 have maintained their presence in the northern and central zones of the Gaza Strip.
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3661056&url=https://www.jpost.com/IDF troops on operational activity in Gaza, January 21, 2024 (IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)
Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) continued their active engagement in the northern and central regions of the Gaza Strip over the past 24 hours, targeting Hamas terrorist infrastructure and eliminating a significant number of terrorists in the area, the IDF Spokesperson Unit reported on Wednesday.
In recent days, combat units from Brigade 162 have maintained their presence in the northern and central zones of the Gaza Strip, relentlessly pursuing terrorist elements. These efforts have resulted in the neutralization of numerous terrorists and the dismantling of key terrorist infrastructure.
The 401st Brigade, in particular, has been instrumental in combating terrorism in the northern area of the Strip. Through several confrontations with armed militants, they successfully eliminated more than 15 terrorists affiliated with the Hamas terror organization.Go to the full article >>
END
ISRAEL GAZA/NORTH
US says UN mission to assess conditions in northern Gaza delayed by renewed fighting
By JACOB MAGID
State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller answers questions during a news briefing at the State Department on July 18, 2023, in Washington. (AP Photo/Nathan Howard)
A UN mission aimed at assessing the conditions in northern Gaza in order to allow the return of its evacuated residents has been delayed due to renewed fighting in the area, US State Department spokesman Matt Miller says.
“We saw Hamas fighters pop up and start launching rocket attacks into Israel, start shooting at Israeli forces. That made the conditions on the ground not tenable or safe for conducting this humanitarian mission,” Miller says, revealing an apparent setback in the IDF’s military operations. Israel announced late last month that it had transitioned to low-intensity fighting in northern Gaza and was focusing more intensively on southern Gaza where Hamas’s leaders are believed to be hiding.
Miller stresses that the US still wants to see the UN assessment mission embark as soon as possible.
“We do expect some initial movements north to take place in the next few days to pave the groundwork for that assessment mission to move forward,” Miller adds without elaborating.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
Police say officer Ran Gvili was slain Oct 7, taken to Gaza; 3 troops killed in Strip
Deaths of Netzer Simchi, Gavriel Shani and Yuval Nir in battle bring IDF’s ground op toll to 223; cop’s newly confirmed death based on updated findings and intelligence information
By EMANUEL FABIAN FOLLOW
and TOI STAFFToday, 12:48 pm
A composite image (from left to right) of police officer Sgt. First Class Ran Gvili, confirmed to have been killed by terrorists on October 7; and Maj. (res.) Netzer Simchi, 30, left, Warrant Officer Yuval Nir, 43, and Cpt. (res.) Gavriel Shani, 28, who were killed in Gaza on January 30, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
Israeli authorities confirmed Wednesday morning that a hostage kidnapped to Gaza by Hamas-led terrorists on October 7 had been killed that day, as the military separately announced that three soldiers were killed Tuesday in battles in the Strip.
The Israel Police announced the death of Sgt. First Class Ran Gvili, saying he was killed by Hamas during its October 7 massacre, with his body subsequently abducted to Gaza.
Gvili, of the Yasam patrol unit in the police’s Negev district, was killed in battle against terrorists in the community of Alumim during the Hamas onslaught.
On Tuesday, Gvili’s death was declared by the chief rabbi and a team of rabbinical and health experts, based on updated findings and intelligence information.
His death brought the toll of slain police officers in the war to 61, the vast majority of them on the morning of October 7, when a total of some 1,200 people were killed and 253 were taken hostage into Gaza by thousands of invading terrorists, amid acts of horrific brutality directed mostly against civilians.
It is believed that 132 of those hostages remain in Gaza — not all of them alive — after 105 civilians were released from Hamas captivity during a week-long truce in late November. Four hostages were released prior to that, and one was rescued by troops. The bodies of eight hostages have also been recovered and three hostages were mistakenly killed by the military.
The IDF has now confirmed the deaths of 29 of those still held by Hamas, citing intelligence and findings obtained by troops operating in Gaza.
Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces’ statement Wednesday on the deaths of the three soldiers in battle brought the military death toll from the months-long ground offensive to 223.
The slain troops were named as:
- Maj. (res.) Netzer Simchi, 30, from the northern Israeli community of Masad, of the 14th Armored Brigade’s 87th Battalion.
- Cpt. (res.) Gavriel Shani, 28, from the West Bank settlement of Eli, of the 646th Brigade’s 6646th Battalion.
- Warrant Officer (res.) Yuval Nir, 43, from the West Bank settlement of Kfar Etzion, of the 646th Brigade’s 6646th Battalion.
Shani and Nir were killed while fighting in south Gaza. Another two soldiers were seriously wounded in the same battle, the IDF said.
Simchi was killed fighting in northern Gaza, the military said.
The IDF also said Wednesday morning that it was continuing to operate in the mostly captured central and northern Gaza areas, where the 162nd Division had battled many Hamas gunmen over the previous 24 hours.
The division’s 401st Armored Brigade killed more than 15 Hamas operatives in northern Gaza in the last day, according to the IDF.
In one raid, the IDF said, troops arrested 10 Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives who were holed up in a school and located five rockets in the area prepared for launch.
Reservists of the 5th Brigade operating on the outskirts of the Shati camp, with air support, killed several more gunmen and located weapons used by Hamas, the IDF said.
In central Gaza, the Nahal Brigade killed more than 10 gunmen within an hour, and later killed several more in the same area, the army said.
Meanwhile, in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis — where most of the remaining hostages and the top Hamas leadership are believed to be — the IDF was continuing a push against Hamas in the western part of the city.
In one incident in western Khan Younis, the Paratroopers Brigade spotted a Hamas gunman joining a cell before directing an airstrike against them, the IDF said.
In another incident, the Air Force struck a building the military said had been used by another Hamas cell planning to ambush troops.
More than 2,000 Hamas operatives have been killed above and below ground in Khan Younis since troops began operating there last month, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said in a briefing on Monday evening, describing the city as the “Hamas capital of the south.”
A pipe pumping water into a Hamas tunnel is seen near Palestine Square in Gaza City’s Rimal neighborhood, December 19, 2023. (Emanuel Fabian/Times of Israel)
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and other terror commanders are hiding underground, according to Israeli officials who said that the Gaza terror chief is believed to be in a command center in a tunnel under Khan Younis, along with some of the hostages.
The IDF said Tuesday that it has been flooding some tunnels in the Gaza Strip with seawater, confirming what had been an open secret for several weeks.
Earlier this month, senior Israeli defense officials estimated to The New York Times that Hamas’s tunnel network runs 350-400 miles long, much more than previously believed. The tunnels are believed to be accessed by some 5,700 shafts.
END
Netanyahu: Gaza hostage deal ‘not at any cost,’ IDF to stay in Gaza
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFJANUARY 31, 2024 22:43Updated: JANUARY 31, 2024 22:45
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday night that he “has red lines” regarding the release of the hostages kidnapped by Hamas in Gaza.
“We will not end the war, we will not remove the IDF from the Gaza Strip, and we will not release thousands of terrorists,” he said.
“There is a lot of noise in the media surrounding the efforts for the release of more hostages, so I want to make it clear: We are working to obtain another outline for the release of our hostages, but I emphasize: Not at any cost.
“We are constantly working for the release of our hostages and the achievement of the other goals of the war: the elimination of Hamas and the promise that Gaza will no longer pose a threat,” he continued. “We are working on all three together and will not give up on any of them.”
ISRAEL/LEBANON
More Israeli Troops To ‘Go Into Action’ Soon At Lebanon Border: Defense Minister
TUESDAY, JAN 30, 2024 – 09:45 PM
As the region braces for the consequences of major US airstrikes on ‘Iranian proxies’ in Iraq and Syria, Israel’s defense minister has issued an alert saying Israeli troops will “very soon go into action” near the country’s northern border with Lebanon.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant issued the words Monday at a time of daily tit-for-tat cross-border fire with Hezbollah. The conflict has thus far been seen as “contained” – yet things across the broader region are looking anything but contained. Gallant said, “They will very soon go into action… so the forces in the north are reinforced.”
He added that reservists need to “prepare and come ready” for future operations in the north when called upon. Israel’s military struck several Hezbollah positions on Monday.
“The targets included Hezbollah’s infrastructure and an observation post located in the southern Lebanese areas of Markaba, Taybeh, and Maroun Al-Ras,” the IDF said.
This was in response to at least a dozen earlier attacks by Hezbollah the same day, which reportedly included use of Iranian-made Falaq-1 and Burkan missiles.
Days ago, ABC News quoted an Israeli government official who predicted:
Israel is “closer to war” with Hezbollah and a possible regional war than ever, a senior Israeli official said.
Gallant had previously estimated that as a result of Hezbollah rockets which started soon after Oct.7, over 80,000 Israeli citizens are still displaced from their homes, after border regions had to be evacuated en masse.
Incoming missile and drone alerts have also become commonplace across communities in the north. Some Israeli officials have wanted a more hawkish response in order to eventually allow these citizens to safely return to their homes in the north.
Over a month ago, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned, “If Hezbollah decides to open an all-out war, then with its own hands it will turn Beirut and southern Lebanon, which are not far from here, into Gaza and Khan Younis.”
The consensus among regional analysts is that Hezbollah is far superior to Hamas’ capability in terms of numbers of fighters, missiles, and weaponry such as laser-guided anti-tank missiles. An all-out war scenario would be severe, but likely Lebanon would be devastated and come under Israeli bombs. For now it seems, neither side wants this worst-case scenario.
end
IRAN/PROXIES/USA
Do not put your money on this!
After deadly drone strike, Iran-backed Iraqi militia claims its pausing attacks on US forces
By AFP
BAGHDAD — A pro-Iran group in Iraq says that it will halt its attacks on US troops, after Washington pledged a “very consequential” response to a drone attack that killed three of its soldiers.
“We’re announcing the suspension of our military and security operations against the occupying forces to avoid any embarrassment for the Iraqi government,” Kataeb Hezbollah writes on its website.
The United States blamed “radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq” for Sunday’s drone strike on a remote Jordan desert base near Syria and Iraq.
end
HOUTHIS//USA/WESTERN SHIPS IN RED SEA
US shoots down missile fired by Houthis toward Red Sea, Pentagon says
By REUTERSToday, 2:44 am
Iranian-backed Houthi militants fired one anti-ship cruise missile from Yemen toward the Red Sea on Tuesday, the US military’s Central Command says, adding that a US destroyer in the area shot it down.
No injuries or damage were reported, the Central Command says.
END
Iran Vows To Hit Back If US Strikes Target Its Soil; US Destroyer Comes Under Attack In Red Sea
WEDNESDAY, JAN 31, 2024 – 01:35 PM
Iran has signaled it is prepared to counterattack in response to any US strike on its soil or assets abroad, as the world still awaits the coming White House response to the Sunday drone attack on the American base in Jordan (Tower 22) which killed three US soldiers and wounded over 40.
The Guardian reported Tuesday that a ‘warning’ over red lines has been issued via diplomatic channels. “Iran has told the US via intermediaries that if it strikes Iranian soil directly, Tehran will itself hit back at American assets in the Middle East, drawing the two sides into a direct conflict,” according to the report.
The Islamic Republic remains on ‘high alert’ – while in Iraq one of the main Shia militias in Iraq which is believed responsible for the killing of the Americans, Kataib Hezbollah, announced it is suspending all operations against US troops and bases in Iraq and Syria.
“We announce the suspension of military and security operations against the occupation forces,” Kataib Hezbollah said in the statement. The group said it was motivated in large part because it did not want to cause “embarrassment to the Iraqi government.” The Iraqi government has lately clarified its stance that it wants to immediately see all US and Western coalition forces exit the country on a permanent basis.
The announcement was immediately subject of much speculation. Is it a ploy to buy more time? Is it a last-ditch effort toward peace? Is it a deception? Most US media pundits looked upon it as meaningless.
The US administration’s response has essentially been that it’s ‘too late’ and President Biden has already made the decision. Given no attack came in the overnight hours, there’s a likelihood it will happen tonight.
The Pentagon has indicated it is ignoring the Kataib Hezbollah message and that it won’t change the US plans for a major response. Kataib Hezbollah has at no point taken credit for the Tower 22 attack, while US officials have said it has the “footprint” of the group linked to Iran. And more from Tehran officials…
“We hear threats coming from US officials, we tell them that they have already tested us and we now know one another, no threat will be left unanswered,” the Commander in Chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Major General Hossein Salami said on Wednesday. “The enemies have prepared wars against Iran in all fields, militarily, economically, in the media, and psychologically.”
Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh echoed Biden in placing ultimate responsibility (albeit indirectly) on Iran. “In terms of attribution for the attack, we know this is an [Iran]-backed militia. It has the footprints of Kataib Hezbollah, but [we’re] not making a final assessment,” Singh said at a press briefing. “Iran continues to arm and equip these groups to launch these attacks, and we will certainly hold them responsible.”
Meanwhile, even while in Iraq and Syria there’s an eerie quiet and lull before storm, the Yemeni Houthis have once again launched missiles at Red Sea vessels. Late Tuesday the Houthis directly targeted a US destroyer which has long been engaged in action there protecting commercial shipping:
An anti-ship cruise missile launched this week from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen was targeting the Navy destroyer that shot it down, making it the second militant attack on a U.S. warship patrolling in the Red Sea in recent days.
At about 11:30 p.m. Tuesday, USS Gravely shot down one missile over the Red Sea, U.S. CENTCOM said in a statement Wednesday.
The USS Gravely did not suffer damage nor were there any casualties, while the Houthis took responsibility and vowed more attacks, even after some dozen coalition airstrikes have been launched over the past weeks on Houthi positions.
The Houthis in a fresh statement have vowed more attacks on US and UK warships in the Red Sea, in what’s clearly become an open state of war, despite Biden officials’ insistence that the US is not at “war”.
WEST BANK/ISRAEL
IDF troops arrest 14 suspects in West Bank
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFJANUARY 31, 2024 12:03
https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-
news%2Farticle-784474&unitId=2900003088&userId=0984023a-6fcf-4b29-a5e6-1be85cfd6d0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&version=20240130_8b231c72356485381dc62e08dae666589775ffe4&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140
IDF and Border Police officers, along with the Shin Bet, arrested 14 suspects overnight throughout the West Bank and confiscated many weapons, the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit said on Wednesday
END
Watch: Israeli Commandos Disguised As Medics Raid West Bank Hospital, Kill 3 Palestinian Militants
WEDNESDAY, JAN 31, 2024 – 03:30 AM
Israeli commandos disguised as medics, patients and other Palestinian civilians raided a hospital in the occupied West Bank city of Jenin on Tuesday morning, in footage widely shared online.
The soldiers killed three people inside Jenin’s Ibn Sina Hospital. Footage shared online and in Israeli media showed around a dozen Israeli soldiers in the hospital, armed with assault rifles.
Hamas responded to the attack saying that “Israel’s crimes will not go unanswered”, and said that the killings were a “continuation of the occupation’s ongoing crimes against our people from Gaza to Jenin”.
The men killed (reportedly Palestinian militants) have been identified as Mohammed Jalamneh, and two brothers, Basil and Mohammed al-Ghazawi.
According to Israeli media, the raid took around 10 minutes and took place at 5.30am. One of the Israeli commandos was speaking Arabic at the time of the raid, Israel Hayom reported.
Meanwhile, the Israeli military said that one of the Palestinians was a Hamas member who was planning an attack inspired by Oct 7th. The brothers allegedly belonged to the Jenin Brigade and the armed wing of Islamic Jihad.
The raid left parts of the hospital destroyed, with beds upturned and blood stains covering the floor and equipment.
Tawfiq Al-Shoubaki, the medical director of the hospital told Middle East Eye that some of the Israeli commandos were also dressed as nurses, and drew their weapons as soon as they entered the hospital.
He added that some of the Israeli forces entered Basil al-Ghazawi’s room, despite the fact that he was receiving treatment for wounds he sustained on October 25, following a missile explosion in the Jenin cemetery.
“No gunshots were heard during their storming of the wounded man’s room. They immediately withdrew after a few minutes, and the hospital staff found the three young men covered in their blood, without any indication that they were alive, and the bullets were concentrated in the head,” he said.
Al-Shoubaki says that the assassinations mark new ways Israel is targeting hospitals and medical staff in Jenin.
The hospital director Naji Nazzal told AFP that the attack took place in the hospital’s rehabilitation ward where Basil Ghazawi had been undergoing treatment. “They [Israeli forces] used weapons fitted with silencers,” he told the news agency.
An AFP photographer said that he saw a bullet hole in a pillow covered with blood following the raid, the news agency reported. The Palestinian Ministry of Health denounced the attack, saying that healthcare facilities are granted special protection under international law:
“The minister of health calls urgently on the United Nations General Assembly, international institutions and human rights organisations to end the daily string of crimes committed by the occupation [Israel] against our people and health centers,” a ministry statement said.
https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-
Israeli special forces disguised as Palestinian civilians and medical workers, raided the Ibn Sina Hospital in Jenin, reportedly killing three Palestinians. The raid took place early on Tuesday inside the Ibn Sina hospital in Jenin in the occupied West Bank
Israeli special forces raid Jenin Hospital disguised as Palestinian
·
25.4K Views
This is not the first time Israeli forces have raided and targeted the Ibn Sina hospital since the start of the Gaza War on October 7.
In November, Israeli forces and tanks surrounded the hospital during a raid on the city. At least four hospitals in the city were besieged, including the Ibn Sina Hospital. “Israeli forces turned up at Ibn Sina Hospital, one of the biggest in the occupied West Bank. They turned up in a raid where they asked medical staff to put their hands up and evacuate the hospital,” an Al Jazeera correspondent reported.
At least two paramedics were arrested in the raid, while drone strikes killed three in the Jenin refugee camp.
RAFAH/ISRAEL
Three killed in targeted IDF strike on jeep in Gaza’s Rafah – report
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFJANUARY 31, 2024 16:22
Three were killed in a targeted Israeli strike on a jeep in the Rafah area in the southern Gaza Strip, Israeli media reported on Wednesday citing Al-Jazeera.
The strike’s targets were unclear in initial reports of the attack.
SYRIA/ISRAEL
Rocket fired from Syria at Golan Heights; IDF responds with shelling
By EMANUEL FABIAN FOLLOWToday, 9:55 pm
Rockets are fired from Syria at the southern Golan Heights, local authorities say.
The Golan Heights regional council in a statement to residents says three rockets hit open areas, with no reports of damage or injuries.
The IDF is responding with shelling against the source of the fire.
Amid the war in the Gaza Strip there have been several rocket attacks launched from Syria at northern Israel.
END
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
When you lose your immunity because of the vaccines, this is what you get!
(CDC/EpochTimes)
CDC Issues ‘Health Alert’ Over Measles Cases Across US
TUESDAY, JAN 30, 2024 – 07:05 PM
Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Thursday sent a notice to health care providers to “stay alert for measles cases” after multiple outbreaks were reported in recent weeks along with an instance where an “international traveler” may have exposed thousands to the virus at two Washington-area airports.
The agency’s alert said that between Dec. 1, 2023, and Jan. 23 of this year, it received reports of 23 confirmed measles cases, “including seven direct importations of measles by international travelers and two outbreaks with more than five cases each.”
In the alert, it said that health care providers should take note of patients who have febrile rash symptoms as well as other related measles symptoms such as a cough or conjunctivitis or have recently traveled outside the United States, namely in countries with measles outbreaks.
It then said health care providers should “immediately” report the cases to state and local health agencies about suspected measles cases, which are then reported to the CDC
“Do not allow patients with suspected measles to remain in the waiting room or other common areas of the healthcare facility; isolate patients with suspected measles immediately, ideally in a single-patient airborne infection isolation room,” the agency said, or they are urged to wait in a private room with a closed door. “Healthcare providers should be adequately protected against measles and should adhere to standard and airborne precautions when evaluating suspect cases regardless of their vaccination status,” it said.
The agency also again recommended that people receive a vaccine for measles and pushed health care providers to recommend the shots. In 2023, the CDC sent out a similar health alert pushing for people to get vaccinated for the virus.
According to the alerts, the CDC said that most measles cases involve young children who haven’t received a measles-containing shot. Recent research, published in late December 2023, suggests if the measles vaccine is given after the diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis vaccine—known as DTP or DTAP—there is an overall positive effect. If the order is reversed, a negative effect was observed.
Recent Cases
While the CDC did not go into specifics, health officials in the District of Columbia and Virginia issued notices about a “case of measles in a person who traveled through” area airports after returning from “international travel.”
That person traveled to Dulles International Airport in the international arrivals area of the main terminal between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. local time on Wednesday, Jan. 3, as well as at the Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport’s Terminal A between 2:30 p.m. and 6:30 p.m. local time on Thursday, Jan. 4, according to the health agencies.
Health authorities are now working to identify people who may have been exposed to measles, including working to contact possibly exposed passengers on several flights, those alerts said earlier in January.
Neither statements from the Virginia and Washington health agencies listed the airlines or flights the infected person used. It’s also not clear what country the person had been traveling to.
In recent weeks, cases have been reported in Philadelphia, New Jersey, Kansas City, Delaware, and Washington state, according to various media reports.
Federal officials have confirmed at least 9 measles cases in Missouri, Georgia, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania as of Jan. 25, 2024. Over 1,200 measles cases have been confirmed since 2019, the CDC says.
Months before the COVID-19 pandemic started worldwide, health officials in New York’s Rockland County declared an emergency in 2019 after more than 100 people were diagnosed with the virus in the area. At the time, the declaration had banned minors who were not vaccinated for measles from appearing in public places, including shopping centers, schools, and restaurants.
Symptoms
Health authorities say that measles is a highly transmissible virus that spreads through the air when a person breathes, coughs, talks, or sneezes.
The virus generally shows up in two stages. In the first, most people develop a fever higher than 101 degrees Fahrenheit, runny nose, watery red eyes, or cough. These symptoms generally start seven to 14 days after being exposed.
Officials say the second stage of measles starts about two to three days after the initial symptoms. Some people develop what is known as Koplik spots—tiny white spots—inside the mouth, according to the CDC.
Three to five days after the first symptoms begin, the telltale measles rash starts to appear on the patient’s face near the hairline area before it spreads to the rest of the body, spreading downward, the CDC has said.
“Small raised bumps may also appear on top of the flat red spots,” and the “spots may become joined together as they spread from the head to the rest of the body,” the agency says. “When the rash appears, a person’s fever may spike to more than 104 degrees Fahrenheit.”
The CDC and the World Health Organization in November said that there were nine million measles cases and 136,000 deaths in 2022.
OTHER MEDICAL VACCINE INJURY/CANCER REPORTS
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Tucker Carlson asks, “who runs America”? Well, IMO, and some say it’s Rice, it’s Obama & I would tend to agree a lot but the Muslim Brotherhood runs America..Obama ensured it…they even run our
military…it never ever was Biden…anytime something happens in US, ask who would benefit…once you can figure that out, you know who runs America. Radical islam runs America…until we say NO MORE
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 30 |
Vigilant News
Who Runs the United States of America?
Tucker Carlson says he’s never met anyone who could conclusively answer that question. “I’ve never met someone who could answer conclusively who’s in charge of the United States. Obviously, it’s not him [Biden].” Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton says Biden has “handlers…
3 days ago · 186 likes · 107 comments · The Vigilant Fox
‘Tucker Carlson says he’s never met anyone who could conclusively answer that question.
“I’ve never met someone who could answer conclusively who’s in charge of the United States. Obviously, it’s not him [Biden].”
end
MURDER in the FIRST! A COVID pandemic never occured! A FAKE! COVID was a government MILITARY OPERATION, we were deceived by a ‘false-positive’ PCR-induced lie, greatest deception in history! & Malone
Bourla, Weissman et al. mRNA technology gene based mRNA gene injection was a bioweapon to depopulate, cull the planet, to kill people! IMO a binary bioweapon of sorts! NEVER was a lab leak!
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJAN 31 |
The lab-leak theory I have come to realize is a lie! Like the COVID pandemic. 100% lie.
Murder in the first!
end
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| 14-Year-Old Dies Suddenly during High School Basketball GameA 14-year-old girl has tragically collapsed and died suddenly on the court during a high school basketball game, according to reports.READ MORE |
| CDC: Covid & Stress to Blame for Soaring Sudden Heart Attack DeathsThe U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has just published a study claiming that Covid and stress are to blame for the unprecedented soaring numbers of sudden heart failure-related deaths that have been recorded since 2021.READ MORE |
| DOJ Launches Criminal Investigation into Democrat Cori BushThe U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has just launched a criminal investigation into radical “Squad” Democrat Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO).READ MORE |
| Elon Musk’s Neuralink Implants Chip in Human Brain for First TimeElon Musk has announced that his neurotechnology company Neuralink has just implanted a chip into the brain of its first human subject.READ MORE |
| Trump Blasts Clinton Judge as He Vows to Appeal Carroll RulingPresident Donald Trump has blasted Bill Clinton-appointed Judge Lewis Kaplan following the recent ruling in the E. Jean Carroll defamation lawsuit.READ MORE |
| Fani Willis Blocks House Republicans’ Investigations into Lover Nathan WadeGeorgia’s anti-Trump Democrat prosecutor Fani Willis is blocking House Republicans from investigating her lover Nathan Wade.READ MORE |
| Panama Soccer Star Luis ‘Matador’ Tejada Drops Dead of Heart Attack at 41Panama’s world-famous soccer star Luis “Matador” Tejada has died suddenly at just 41 years old, according to reports.READ MORE |
| Major Texas Chicken Farm Destroyed by Massive Explosion & FireA huge explosion has triggered a massive fire at a major chicken farm in Texas, according to reports.READ MORE |
| Top Trump Aide: Report on RFK Jr. Running Mate Is ‘Fake News’One of President Donald Trump’s top aides says that the recent report claiming that the 45th POTUS has asked Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be his running mate in 2024 is “fake news.”READ MORE |
| Joe Rogan Warns ‘Fake World of Leftist Ideology’ Is Destroying the CountryPopular podcaster Joe Rogan has warned that “leftist ideology” and “progressive policies” are tearing the country apart.READ MORE |
| Professor Fired for ‘Misconduct’ after Criticizing Greta ThunbergA university professor has been fired after he called out Swedish green agenda activist Gret Thunberg on social media.READ MORE |
| Renowned Medical Journal Calls for ‘Interventions’ to Stop ‘Vaccine Hesitancy Driven by Misinformation’A world-renowned medical journal is calling for governments to make “interventions” to stop so-called “misinformation” about Covid mRNA injections.READ MORE |
| Bill Pushing Digital IDs Advances in FloridaA bill that paves the way for mandatory digital IDs is advancing in Florida’s state legislature.READ MORE |
| EVOL NEWS: |
READ MORE…
LATEST NEWS:
Former IRS Contractor Gets Light Sentence for Releasing Trump Tax Records – EVOL
Read more…
E. Jean Carroll Appears on CBS Morning Show After Civil Trial Verdict and Vows to Do ‘Anything She Can’ to Stop Trump From Becoming President Again – EVOL
Read more…
Over 1,000 UN Agency Staffers Have Ties To Hamas, Islamic Jihad: REPORT – EVOL
Read more…
Professor Fired for ‘Misconduct’ after Criticizing Greta Thunberg – EVOL
Read more…
Renowned Medical Journal Calls for ‘Interventions’ to Stop ‘Vaccine Hesitancy Driven by Misinformation’ – EVOL
Read more…
Biden Admin Rolling Out Stove Regulation After Insisting It’s Not Trying To Ban Gas Stoves – EVOL
Read more…
Bill Pushing Digital IDs Advances in Florida – EVOL
Read more…
89% of ‘American Elites’ Back WEF’s Plan to Ration Meat, Gas, Electricity for General Public – EVOL
Read more…
NEWS ADDICT
| Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico has just announced that the European nation is launching an official investigation into the “circus” of Covid mRNA vaccines as the country suffers skyrocketing sudden deaths. READ THE FULL REPORT AIDS-Like Illness Spreading Rapidly Among Vaccinated, Experts Warn Experts are raising the alarm over an AIDS-like illness that is rapidly spreading among people who have received Covid mRNA injections. READ THE FULL REPORT Biden Admin Rolling Out Stove Regulation After Insisting It’s Not Trying To Ban Gas Stoves The Biden administration finalized an energy efficiency rule for stoves on Monday after claiming that it has no intention to ban gas-powered models. READ THE FULL REPORT Over 1,000 UN Agency Staffers Have Ties To Hamas, Islamic Jihad: REPORT A major United Nations (UN) agency providing humanitarian services for Palestinians has deeper ties to Hamas and other Islamic terrorist organizations than previously realized, The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday. READ THE FULL REPORT E. Jean Carroll Appears on CBS Morning Show After Civil Trial Verdict and Vows to Do ‘Anything She Can’ to Stop Trump From Becoming President Again In an appearance today on “CBS Mornings” after the recent civil trial verdict, E. Jean Carroll vowed to do “anything she can” to stop Donald Trump from becoming president again. READ THE FULL REPORT |
Bill Gates Calls on Governments to Censor ‘Anti-Vaxxers’ to Fight ‘Vaccination Hesitancy’
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates is calling on global governments to censor individuals deemed to be “anti-vaxxers.”
READ THE FULL REPORT
FBI Shut Down Investigative Leads That Could Identify J6 Pipe Bomb Suspect, Former Agent Reveals
According to a former FBI agent, the Bureau initially believed that it had linked the person who planted pipe bombs at the Democratic and Republican National Committees to a specific Metro fare card and license plate, but he was denied the opportunity to interview the person of interest and his team was pulled off the lead.
READ THE FULL REPORT
E. Jean Carroll Tells Rachel Maddow She Plans to Take Her ‘Shopping’ and More with $83 Million from Trump
E. Jean Carroll appeared on Rachel Maddow’s MSNBC show on Monday night after she was awarded $83 million in a civil trial against President Donald Trump.
READ THE FULL REPORT
Fox News Host ‘Stunned’ by Report Biden Not Contacting Gold Star Families
President Joe Biden has not contacted the Gold Star families who lost military servicemembers to a drone attack, according to a new report.
READ THE FULL REPORT
VIEW MORE NEWS
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
END
7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE//GLOBAL SHIPPING
Shipping Faces Lengthy Disruptions As Middle East Fallout Worsens
WEDNESDAY, JAN 31, 2024 – 06:30 AM
By Greg Miller of FreightWaves
The Red Sea crisis — and the Middle East situation in general — is worsening. There’s growing conviction that shipping diversions around the Cape of Good Hope will increase in scope and last much longer than initially expected. That should be good news for shipping stocks over time, due to durably longer voyage distances.
The Houthis hit the JP Morgan-owned product tanker Marlin Luanda with a ballistic missile on Friday, setting a cargo tank on fire. The tanker was chartered by trading house Trafigura and loaded with Russian naphtha. The fire was extinguished on Saturday, with all crew safe.
On Sunday, a drone attack by an Iranian-backed militia killed three U.S. service members and injured at least 40 more at a U.S. military site in Jordan. The Biden administration has vowed to respond, raising the specter of a wider Middle East conflict.
“Red Sea diversions are on the rise as continued attacks on vessels in the region are prompting more shipping companies to avoid transiting the area,” said Jefferies shipping analyst Omar Nokta in a client note on Monday.
The vast majority of larger container ships already avoid the Red Sea, and detours are rapidly spreading to bulk commodity shipping.
Citing data from Clarksons, Nokta said that crude tanker transits of the region are now down 22% versus their 2023 average; at the beginning of this year, they were down 5% from last year’s average. Product tanker transits are down 51% versus 2023, after being down 29% versus last year’s average at the beginning of the year, with liquefied natural gas carrier transits down 87% (from 36%) and liquefied petroleum gas carrier transits down 62% (from 23%).
‘The script has flipped’ for Zim
Nokta significantly upgraded his view on Israeli container liner operator Zim, maintaining that “the script has flipped” and Houthi attacks turned Zim’s business “from cash burn to cash machine.”
Nokta had previously estimated that Zim would post adjusted net losses of $260.1 million this year and $506.3 million next year.
His new forecast is drastically different. He projects adjusted net income of $751 million this year, followed by losses of $337 million next year.
“Red Sea diversions are likely to continue for an extended period, tightening capacity for longer,” he said.
Zim’s stock closed up 7.5% on Monday, on a day when most shipping equities ended in the red.
‘Tanker equities should also be added to the list’
According to Evercore ISI shipping analyst Jonathan Chappell, “The adage is that one should stock up on canned beans in times of war. We clearly do not make light of these tragedies, but tanker equities should also be added to the list.”
Chappell noted that in periods of geopolitical risk, shipping stocks provide material beta (a measure of volatility versus the broader market). He presented data on outsized tanker stock gains versus the S&P 500 since the invasion of Ukraine and the Hamas attacks on Israel.
Deutsche Bank analysts Amit Mehrotra and Chris Robertson wrote: “We believe the recent attacks will result in even more ship owners and operators diverting vessels from the area, which could put further upward pressure on spot rates in the coming week.”
“We believe the companies with exposure to the mid-sized crude and product tanker segments will benefit the most from the disruptions,” they said, pointing to Frontline, International Seaways and Scorpio Tankers.
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA//
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0836 DOWN .0007
USA/ YEN 147.83 UP .497 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2682 DOWN .0012
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3434 UP .0033 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 33 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 41.98 PTS OR 1.48%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 218.38 PTS OR 1.39%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.99% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 218.38 PTS OR 1.39%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 41.98 PTS OR 1.48%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.99%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 220.85 OR 0.61%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2038.15
silver:$23.11
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 103.36 UP 14 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.8666% DOWN 7 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.725% UP 1 AND 3//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.081 DOWN 11 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.722 DOWN 11 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.1595 DOWN 14 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0852 UP 0.0008 or 8 basis points
USA/Japan: 146.27 DOWN 1.044 OR YEN UP 105 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.2720 UP .0027 OR 27 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0022 OR 22 BASIS pts to 1.3379
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (UP) …7.1677
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1784)
TURKISH LIRA: 30.34 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.725…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 10 in basis points from TUESDAY at 3.958% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.201 DOWN 8 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.221 DOWN 14 BASIS PTS.
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 14.50 PTS OR 0.19%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 60.78 PTS OR 0.36%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 15.47 PTS OR 0.20%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 50.60 PTS OR 0.50%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 166.64 PTS OR 0.54%
WTI Oil price 76.75 12: EST
Brent Oil: 81.21 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 90.02; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 29//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1595 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.825 DOWN 14 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0800 DOWN .0043 OR 43 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2667 DOWN .0038 or 38 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.8175 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.725%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 147.33 UP .030//YEN DOWN .3 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3439 UP 0.0037 CDN dollar DOWN 37 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 75.86
Brent OIL: 80.46
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 7 BASIS pts to 3.985%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 5 BASIS PTS to 4.228%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 9 PTS AT 4.266%
USA dollar index: 103.48 UP 29 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.35 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 90,02 DOWN 0 AND 28/100 roubles
GOLD 2034.00 3:30 PM
SILVER: 22.83 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 317,47 PTS OR 0.83%
NASDAQ DOWN 339.47 PTS OR 1,34%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.39 UP 1,08 PTS OR 8.11%
GLD: $188,45 DOWN 0.14 OR 0.07%
SLV/ $20.91 DOWN .28 OR 1.32%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:
Stocks, Bond Yields, & Bullion Puke After Powell Pummels Dovish Dreamers, Assails AI
WEDNESDAY, JAN 31, 2024 – 04:00 PM
‘Soft’ survey data continued its trend weaker…
Source: Bloomberg
And NYCB shit the bed…
Source: Bloomberg
Which is probably why The Fed culled the sentence: “The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient” from its statement!
Not a good look.
BUT… The FOMC statement was a total hawkgasm…
And the market’s initial reaction followed that guidance. Then the idiot algos bid stocks back to the highs of the day after Powell said he had “confidence” in inflation coming down (but missed the bit about him saying he needed more confidence).
Powell appeared subliminally aware of that and curb-stomped any dovish hope with the following triple-whammy:
- *POWELL: DON’T THINK IT’S LIKELY FED WILL CUT IN MARCH
- *POWELL: MY GUESS IS PRODUCTIVITY MAY GO BACK TO WHERE WE WERE
- *POWELL: PLANNING TO START IN-DEPTH BALANCE SHEET TALKS IN MARCH
So, no March cut, AI gains are temporary, and QT ain’t coming by March.
The doves cried…
March rate-cut odds tumbled and expectations for 2024 total cuts declined notably…
Source: Bloomberg
And the stock market went wild (as evidenced by the swings in TICK). Initial jerk lower (as selling hit in the statement) held until the presser and algos went crazy with a massive buy program… which was then crushed by a just as massive sell program…
Source: Bloomberg
Small Caps were the day’s biggest loser (down 2.5%!), with The Dow the least ugly horse in the glue factory. The S&P and Nasdaq were ugly…
As ‘most shorted’ stocks were clubbed like a baby seal. A close up on the day’s actions shows the algos doing their best to ignite a squeeze… then failing dismally…
Source: Bloomberg
And MAG7 stocks were monkeyhammered (MAG7 basket’s worst day since Dec 2022)…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, 0-DTE traders fought The Fed all afternoon, with positive delta flow unable to lift stocks..
Treasury yields were down on the day with the short-end outperforming. The early gains on flight-to-safety bids on NYCB (and weak ADP) were largely erased by the hawkish Fed…
Source: Bloomberg
The 10Y Yield pushed back up to 4.00% towards the close but then yields puked to the lows of the day in the last few mins…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (2s30s) bull-steepened on the day, back up near dis-inversion…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar had quite a day with a plunge early on weak ADP and NYCB’s collapse. But then screamed up to the highs of the day
Source: Bloomberg
Gold was the mirror image of the dollar, ripping higher on flight-to-safety demand as NYCB imploded, then dumping back as a hawkish Fed spoiled the party…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices accelerated lower today on weak data, a crude build, and hawkish Fed with WTI back below $76..
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin ended lower – following the same kind of chaotic swings in the FX and gold…
Source: Bloomberg
And finally, we are seeing a return to notable net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs…
Source: Bloomberg
…as GBTC outflows appear to be dwindling.
END
MORNING TRADING//REGIONAL BANK BANCORP CRASHING
Is NY Community Bancorp The Canary In The Fed’s QT-Ending Coalmine?
WEDNESDAY, JAN 31, 2024 – 10:00 AM
Why a flight to safety today
a must read….
The price of shares in New York Community Bancorp – the regional bank that purchased deposits from Signature Bank last year – are crashing this morning, below SVB crisis lows, after reporting a surprise loss for the fourth quarter and a cut to its dividend.
Management had previously said asset quality was strong, so “something has clearly changed in their tone,” Jon Arfstrom, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note to clients.
“This was a material negative surprise.”
As Bloomberg reports, the bank lowered its quarterly payout to shareholders to 5 cents. Analysts had predicted the dividend would remain at 17 cents. A worsening credit outlook contributed to the unexpected loss, as the company boosted its loan-loss provision more than expected.
“We recognize the importance and impact of the dividend reduction on all of our stockholders, and it was not made lightly,” Chief Executive Officer Thomas Cangemi said in a statement Wednesday.
“While these necessary actions negatively impacted our fourth-quarter results, we are confident they better align our larger organization with our new peers and provide a solid foundation going forward.”
The loss for the final three months of last year was $252 million, compared with a $206 million profit analysts had predicted. Revenue of $886 million fell short of expectations for almost $932 million.
But the scale of the losses obviously shocked investors who believed The Fed, The Treasury, and everyone else that SVB was a unique event and The Fed had solved that problem.
This should not come as a surprise to ZeroHedge readers as we have been warning for months – in the face of regional bank share optimism – that all is very much not well beneath the surface of their balance sheets (here, here, here, and most extensively here) as the imminent end to the Fed’s bank bailout fund means regional balance sheets will have to find a different way.
We have warned endlessly, that, without the bailout fund, regional banks are already in crisis (red line)…and large bank cash needs a home (green line), like picking up a small bank from the FDIC?
RIP small banks.
https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-
…and it got worse since then…
All of which leaves us wondering, did the ‘ides of March’ come early?
https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-
Zerohedge
@zerohedge
·
Jan 8
March will be lit: 1. Reverse repo ends 2. BTFP expires 3. Fed cuts (allegedly) 4. QT ends (allegedly)
Show more
getsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&width=550px
No wonder then – as we noted previously – that Logan – the only actual trader at the Fed – started to panic in early Jan and gave the market a green light to start pricing in the end of QT. And, when push comes to shove and we get a little market turmoil in the weeks that follow as the market realizes that QT is still taking place too fast and too many reserves are being drained relative to how much liquidity was being injected previously via revers repo, the start of the next QE.
What happens then? Well, we all know the endgame, but here is a quick preview again thanks to Blitz:
This will add more liquidity to the markets by virtue of the Fed returning to roll 100% of its holdings. They may choose to continue to run down MBS, a promise they always seem to make to themselves, but break. The economy and inflation will inform them on whether to take that course – too soon to say. In the end, if we are sitting in summer with a growing economy and rising private credit demands that have helped turn the curve positive, the Fed will recognize (to the extent it does not already), that where they set IOR is their most critical policy choice.
More importantly, however, by then it will become all too clear that had the Fed not capitulated, Biden would have no chance of re-election. Which, incidentally, is precisely why the Fed is going down this path, because the last thing the political Fed wants is a market crisis and/or recession months ahead of the date when Trump may get re-elected (something Bill Dudley actively – and shockingly – lobbied the Fed against), and trader Jerome is there to make sure all goes according plan.
And that’s where we are now…
All eyes on the SOFR Spread for signals of stress in the plumbing… and in case you wondered why Treasuries and Gold are so aggressively bid, now you know. Flight to safety anyone?
end
AFTERNOON TRADING//FOMC
Hawkish Fed Hammers Dovish Market: Don’t See Cuts Until More Confident About Inflation
WEDNESDAY, JAN 31, 2024 – 02:00 PM
Since The Fed’s (uber dovish) last meeting on December 13th, the dollar is down, bonds and gold are up, and bitcoin and big-tech are surging… in other words – the QE-trade or ‘buy all the things’…
Source: Bloomberg
While all yields are lower since the last FOMC meeting, the short-end has dramatically outperformed (with the last few days rescuing the long-end). The curve has steepened dramatically with 2s30s swinging from -45bps to +10bps since the last meeting…
Source: Bloomberg
And finally, right in the middle of The Fed’s meeting NYBC blows up, sending rate-cut expectations soaring (as traders reached for safe-havens like gold and bonds), putting The Fed in the awkward position of likely having to push back against the bullying market (after all the jawboning of the last month was wasted)…
Source: Bloomberg
So, what did The Fed do (and say)…
Very much more hawkish than expected:
- *FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 5.25%-5.5% TARGET RANGE
- *FED TO CONSIDER ‘ANY ADJUSTMENTS’ TO INTEREST RATES
- *FED SAYS RISKS TO GOALS ‘ARE MOVING INTO BETTER BALANCE’
- *FED: DON’T SEE CUTS UNTIL MORE CONFIDENT INFLATION NEARING 2%
Developing…
II USA DATA
Usually these guys are quite ebullient with their jobs reports. Today they report job gains slowing
trouble ahead…
(ADP)
ADP Employment Report Job Gains Slowing
WEDNESDAY, JAN 31, 2024 – 08:24 AM
Analysts expected the ADP employment report to show a slowdown in job additions from last month’s rebound (driven entirely by Services as Manufacturing jobs declined), and it did. ADP reported the addition of just 107k jobs (and the prior month was revised down to +158k from +164k). This is the second lowest monthly increase in jobs since Jan 2021’s drop in jobs…
Source: Bloomberg
Information Services was the only group to see job losses last month…
On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, manufacturing employment continues to trend lower…
ADP seems optimistic though…
“Progress on inflation has brightened the economic picture despite a slowdown in hiring and pay,” said Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.
“Wages adjusted for inflation have improved over the past six months, and the economy looks like it’s headed toward a soft landing in the U.S. and globally.”
Wage growth is slowing, especially for job-changers… with the differential to job-stayers at its lowest on record…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we note that ADP’s data has under-estimated BLS’s for 3 of the past 4 months…
Source: Bloomberg
So – can The Fed really cut rates (or even hint at imminent rate-cuts) with this kind of labor market?
TUCKER CARLSON..
“One Of The Most Brilliant Explanations Of The Modern World”: Russell Brand Sits With Tucker Carlson For Must-Watch Interview
WEDNESDAY, JAN 31, 2024 – 10:45 AM
Russell Brand flew too close to the sun, it would seem. Just as the popular British comedian was gaining massive attention for confronting global authoritarianism, he was hit with an onslaught of sexual allegations by anonymous accusers, which were amplified throughout the mainstream media.
Brand, known for his left-leaning ideology, articulate critique of the war in Ukraine, and the history of NATO leading up to said war, drew a clandestine ‘shadow campaign’ against him, which according to Tucker Carlson, “began with governments, not private organizations, but governments, their Intel services and their policy makers.” Brand was even attacked “as a Chinese propagandist” for his views on Ukraine.
“I’ve never been to China. I don’t purport to understand China, certainly don’t advocate for Chinese policy,” Brand told Carlson, who suggested that the ‘Chinese propagandist’ allegations were nothing more than “the early seeds of a very deceptive plant that flowered more than a year later, in September, when you were accused of these crimes,” referring to the sexual assault allegations.
“You were making kind of a remarkable case against the Ukrainian people and certainly not in favor of Russia,” Carlson noted, to which Brand replied: “All we’ve essentially done is listen to brilliant academics talking about the history of NATO and the coup in 2014, in Ukraine, and Putin’s explicit declaration that he would prefer, let’s put it mildly, that Ukraine were not invited into NATO, the sum of the regional disputes, how they’re escalating tensions. This is information that, because of independent media, is available.“
Brand was also attacked after Moderna ‘tracked his content’ during the pandemic, and thinks that we’re at a major inflection point for independent voices.
It seems to me ridiculously grandiose to even imagine that I would stir and arouse the interests of such powerful agencies and groups that the British government, if indirectly, would spend considerable sums on observing and amplifying content. That true information shared through our platforms in the period of the pandemic was censored, was cited as high risk that companies like Moderna had spent considerable revenue tracking our content and agenda, amplifying it. That Dame Caroline Diana, whose husband is a psyops expert that worked abroad in terrorism before deploying those methods and techniques, and to some degree, those teams to observe what they called disinformation and misinformation in the UK. I recognize that the new emergent media spaces present a lot of possibilities.
…
I’m not sure if anybody could be sure of where this is all heading, what the exact teleology is. But it seems to be to do with mass centralization, globalization, significant attempts to control the information space that are so rigorously adhered to and protected that even what you might imagine to be a marginal voice is considered a significant enough threat to warrant coordinated media attacks, expenditure on peculiar, clandestine non-government organizations, and think tanks that take their money from the military industrial complex, from the legacy media who, by the way, when they critique critiquing independent media, they got skin in the game.
Brand also acknowledges that he put himself in an “extremely vulnerable position by being very, very promiscuous,” adding “And as you have actually said, we all know how this ends. Attacks like this, a crisis like this. Hurtful though it is to be accused of what I consider to be the most appalling crimes to be accused of.”
How can you live in the ridiculousness of their version of events? I couldn’t have been more open and public about the way that I lived when I was younger. I was promiscuous. If anyone wanted to have sex with me, I’d have sex with them. I publicly announced it at the beginning of all shows.
Authoritarianism and the Uniparty
Brand described what he said was “rapidly escalating” authoritarianism and “totalitarian” tactics by information gatekeepers to ‘de-amplify’ him.
“This seems totalitarian. To control what people are allowed to think – I think that’s the definition of it,” said Carlson, to which Brand agreed, arguing that the ‘uniparty’ is in lockstep against the free flow of information.
They’re not really pretending. Like, here’s a sort of an extraordinary thing that appears to be playing out. In addition to just being casually informed by the legacy media that we’re on the precipice of war with Russia, and that conscription might be reintroduced in 2024. The there was a there was a Covid inquiry in our country, which, by the way, I don’t imagine for a second would have happened without independent media reporting, without voices like Jay Bhattacharya, who was shut down, or voices like Michael Shellenberger or Berenson, people that have been shut down and vilified at large and extensively. The Covid inquiries already cost 245 million pounds, is being booted off and delayed indefinitely. But at least until after the general election, like many countries, there’s an election in our country this year, but as usual, it’s between two neo liberal what you might term centrist parties that are ultimately dominated and controlled by the same concerns, where an extraordinary focus is spent on the tiny minute differences. But it’s the party nominally of the left is ultimately a centralist, neo liberal party. The party, nominally of the right, is a neo liberal, centralist party. They may quibble about some issues that seem significant, and certainly those issues are stoked and amplified. But neither party will say we are going to have a thorough investigation into what went on in that pandemic. That clearly was a lab leak. It looks like it was a bioweapon. It’s being concealed.
Asking the right questions
Carlson noted that while major media organizations may not seem interested in pursuing serious questions about deadly world conflicts, to which Brand said that he’s simply asking questions that a normal person would ask after educating himself “by listening to more educated voices than my own.”
“So forgive my ignorance. I don’t know much about British politics, but the way that one might intuit, hey, should we not be provoking Russia into a war zone?” Brand replied. “They have nuclear weapons. Should we think very carefully about that? I mean, how much do we want Ukraine in NATO? Do we even need NATO? Anyway? The kind of things you might think if you didn’t go to university, you’re a regular blue collar person working for a living, maybe in the police force or the fire service, or as a nurse or as a teacher, something that gives real value to your nation, the kind of things you might think they’re true.”
Brand then noted that society is distracted by design, saying “Those ideas are true. And in order to prevent you from reaching those ordinary, everyday regulations, a machine is put to constant work to conquer the space of your attention, incessantly and relentlessly filling your mind with dumb ideas and dumb distractions, making you believe there’s a dash, some sugar, or a screen might be a convenient palliative as your children are marched off into an unwinnable forever war.”
Freedom in exchange for safety
Brand also opined on MSM propaganda and fear campaigns, noting that authoritarianism is now “deliberately veiled in the insidious language of care, concern, safety, and convenience,” and that “We’re in a time where we lurch from one crisis to another.”
“The crisis is always used to legitimize certain solutions and a docile or terrified public is willingly to participate in this proposed solutions that usually involve giving up their freedom,” Brand said, adding “We’re continually being invited to give up our freedom in exchange for safety or convenience and it seems that this process is radically escalating. And I feel that this is something that we will see more of in the coming year. I feel like you’ve spoken publicly about this – that we’re potentially on the precipice of serious, and to use your term ‘a hot war with Russia.’ And that’s being reported on in my country right now – it’s like we’re being prepped, groomed, primed for ‘war is coming.”
We’re being kept in a state of constant anxiety in order to induce compliance,” Brand continued. “That the ongoing stoking of cultural tension is to ensure that people don’t begin to recognize that actually we have far more in common with one another than we do with these curious sets of the establishment interests that seems to be transcendent of national democracy. To be explicit, I’m talking about organizations like the WHO, NATO, the WEF and their astonishing influence.”
“These think tanks, and apparently independent organizations, who are not independent when you look at where they get their money – Big Pharma, or the government, or the military-industrial complex. Or the kind of people they employ – people from Deep State agencies, such as the FBI and CIA – that have extraordinary affinity with the legacy media and their ongoing agenda.”
Watch below, and while this interview has been published in its entirety on X – subscribe to tuckercarlson.com here.
https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-
end
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
As outlined to you before: these electric busses are nothing but garbage
(zerohedge)
Taxpayer-Funded Electric Busses Are Sitting Broken Down And Idled Across The Country
TUESDAY, JAN 30, 2024 – 09:05 PM
Stop us if you’ve heard this one before, but the billions of dollars we’re spending to convert the country to “clean” energy in order to reduce carbon emissions is being allocated poorly. We know, government spending that isn’t efficient? We were shocked, too.
The latest example comes from the idea that our tax money should be responsible for instituting electric busses nationwide. As Fox News reported this week, the idea has been nothing short of a total disaster, with busses broken down and unused across the nation.
Fox cites several examples, including authorities in Asheville, North Carolina, who have encountered numerous difficulties with their electric bus fleet, leading to the idling of three out of five buses bought in 2018 for “millions”. These challenges stem from an assortment of software glitches, mechanical failures, and the unavailability of necessary spare parts.
In a similar vein, The Denver Gazette highlighted issues in Colorado Springs, where Mountain Metropolitan Transit’s electric bus initiative faces setbacks. Of the four e-buses procured in 2021, each costing $1.2 million primarily funded by governmental grants, two are currently non-operational.
One of the key reasons the electric bus industry isn’t evolving? The free market has already sent it a message by bankrupting its key supplier and largest e-bus manufacturer in the U.S., a company called Proterra.
It filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in August, exacerbating issues for cities with their buses. Despite being promoted by President Biden and having former Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm on its board, the company faced other challenges (for example: a business model that doesn’t work even with massive government subsidies).
Asheville’s interim transportation director, Jessica Morriss, reported difficulties in obtaining parts post-bankruptcy.
Proterra’s problems predate the bankruptcy. In 2020, SEPTA in Philadelphia pulled its $24 million Proterra fleet, and in 2021, Foothill Transit in California reported over half of its electric buses idle. Other affected areas include Stockton, Reno, Louisville, where TARC’s entire fleet remained unused for two years, and Austin, where Capital Metro’s $46 million deal with Proterra faces delays.
Broward County, Florida’s experience was particularly telling, with their Proterra buses breaking down far more frequently than diesel counterparts, highlighting the challenges in transitioning to electric public transportation, the report says.
Now, Fox reports the company is trying to make a comeback. Jose Paul, Chief Revenue Officer of its new holding company, Phoenix Motorcars, discussed the company’s acquisition of Proterra’s “world-class technology” with FOX Business. He compared the evolution of electric vehicles to the early days of the Model T, noting that Proterra’s buses have been improving over time.
Paul acknowledged challenges faced by Proterra’s customers, like Asheville, particularly due to part shortages following the bankruptcy. He revealed Phoenix Motorcars’ immediate plan to restock spare parts and address supplier issues.
Paul expressed optimism that issues caused by Proterra’s bankruptcy would be resolved within six to nine months, emphasizing Phoenix’s commitment to customer satisfaction.
It’ll be back at the trough for more of your taxpayer cash in no time..
end
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
Antisemitism increases by 235% since outbreak of Israel-Hamas war – report
According to the report, following the October 7 attacks, antisemitic incidents have drastically surged to a record high.
The annual report for 2023 and January 2024 on the fight against antisemitism published by the Diaspora Ministry, the World Zionist Organization, and the Jewish Agency showed that between October and December, the number of antisemitic incidents worldwide increased sixfold.
According to the report, following the October 7 attacks, antisemitic incidents have drastically surged to a record high.
Between the months of October and December, numbers show antisemitic incidents to be six times greater, or 235%, than the figures for the months of January through September of 2023.
Geographically, the incidents are spread across the world. The US takes pride of place with 43% of incidents reported, followed by 35% in Europe.
The report also shows a 33% increase in antisemitic attacks of a violent nature in 2023 in comparison to last year. According to the calculations, 48% of these attacks were in relation to the Swords of Iron Operation. 
A demonstrator holds a sign that reads ‘no to antisemitism’, during a protest against antisemitism and to commemorate the 2012 Toulouse attack against a Jewish school that left three children and an adult dead, at the Place de la Republique square in Paris, France, March 13, 2022. (credit: REUTERS/BENOIT TESSIER)
Out of these attacks, 46% occurred in the US. Britain comes in second with 16%, followed by Germany’s 9%, France and Canada with both 6% and Australia 2.5%.
When analyzing each country separately, according to the report, France has seen the greatest surge in antisemitic events, with 1000%, followed by Canada with 800%, Australia with 738%, the US with 337%, and Germany with 320%.
‘Severest antisemitism since the 1930s’
Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli said, “This year has been unlike any other. The hatred of Israel around the world is the most severe since the 1930s of the previous century.
“Jews all over the West feel unsafe. Jews who speak Hebrew on the subway in the capitals of Europe are beaten up. Jews who carry [Israeli] flags on the streets are murdered.
“The most severe antisemitic remarks are made by the Palestinian Authority. Our main recommendation is to move from the defensive phase to the offensive phase. We have to file lawsuits against Hamas and the Palestinian organizations over antisemitism and incitement to terror. The Palestinian Authority educates to terror and pays terrorists, and we have to know how to combat this with the proper tools,” he concluded.Go to the full article >>
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
END
END
SWAMP STORIES
Unbelievable!! USA imploding faster than a speeding bullet
(zerohedge)
New York May Screw 4,000 Legal Residents Out Of A Job – So Migrants Can Have Them
TUESDAY, JAN 30, 2024 – 07:25 PM
In a move that would once again punish those who entered the country legally, the state of New York is mulling a plan to hire around 4,000 ‘migrants and asylum seekers’ into mostly entry-level jobs that are allegedly ‘hard to recruit for,’ according to a Jan. 12 memo from the Department of Civil Service obtained by Bloomberg.
The jobs in question would largely consist of areas like food service, equipment repairs, facilities management and office assistance, and would apply to those who have obtained a work permit, the memo states.
To make these jobs more accessible, the state is proposing to create “transitional” titles with requirements more in line with the candidates’ qualifications. Once in those jobs, the workers would receive training and support to help them gain the necessary skills to be eligible for permanent roles. -Bloomberg
“These individuals are able to perform many of the core duties of the positions that state agencies seek to fill,” the memo continues.
Amid an influx of over 170,000 migrants bussed from southern border states ill-equipped to handle them, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) has proposed a $2.4 billion plan to help provide for them. She’s also called on the Biden administration to speed up work permits, and boost federal aid for the migrants – arguing that letting them work would help the state’s economy and mitigate the humanitarian crisis.
Nevermind the 14% of New York state that’s already living in poverty, or the roughly 436,000 unemployed legal New York residents.
According to NYC Mayor Eric Adams (D), the city will peel off roughly $10.6 billion in taxpayer funds to care for migrants over the three-year period ending in June 2025, with the city spending an average of $352 per night to care for each migrant family, according to city budget officials.
“This initiative, which has not yet been implemented, would offer temporary employment opportunities that are available for anyone who can legally work in the United States,” said Hochul spox Avi Small. “Governor Hochul has prioritized modernizing our state workforce and eliminating red tape, and she has instituted a series of reforms to achieve that goal.”
END
I do not know how Trump can take this day in and day out
(zerohedge)
Monitor’s Report In Fraud Case Contains “Factual Inaccuracies”, Is “Disingenuous” Says Trump Attorney
TUESDAY, JAN 30, 2024 – 10:05 PM
Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Attorneys for former President Donald Trump on Monday responded to a recent report issued by a court-appointed independent monitor regarding Trump Organization finances, disputing former judge Barbara Jones’s characterization of the financial statements as incomplete and inconsistent.
Ms. Jones recommended that third party monitoring of Trump Organization continue, and concluded that “misstatements and errors may continue to occur,” which defense attorneys said was an effort to continue the monitor’s “exorbitant” fees paid by Trump Organization. Ms. Jones has been paid $2.6 million in her 14-month period as an independent monitor on the case.
Ms. Jones’s team has received Trump Organization financial disclosures to third parties, including lenders and insurers; agreements and documents related to transactions; documents related to Trump Organization entities and dissolutions; bank statements; and documents provided to tax authorities.
Attorney Clifford Robert claimed that the Jan. 26 report, submitted at the request of the court, was also meant to “fill the gaping hole in the Attorney General’s case” and was issued “in bad faith.”
“The January 26 Report also contains numerous factual inaccuracies (casting serious doubt on the Monitor’s competency), fails to reference governing standards of any kind, and is otherwise misleading and disingenuous,” the letter reads.
The report pointed out errors on seven disclosure items, three inconsistencies, and five clerical errors, which the defense argues are immaterial amid the thousands of pages of financial data related to the 400 entities Ms. Jones is monitoring.
“The Monitor was appointed to report any financial reporting misconduct, suspicious activity or any suspected or actual fraudulent activity,“ the letter reads. ”The Monitor was not appointed to identify math errors or otherwise sensationalize minor and inconsequential accounting discrepancies scattered throughout the financial reports of the over 400 companies comprising the Defendants’ global enterprise.”
Mr. Robert pointed out that the biggest discrepancy Ms. Jones identified was a difference of $1 million in an “internal trial balance presentation,” and had no actual impact. Mentions of delays in implementing transactions had provided “no evidence of any inappropriate or untoward conduct,” he added, claiming this representation as an effort to “malign such disclosures.”
Mr. Robert noted that the words “misconduct,” “suspicious activity,” “suspected fraud,” or “actual fraud” do not appear in Ms. Jones’s report at all, and argued the errors she cites have been blown out of proportion.
“Moreover, as the Reports and the January 26 Report make clear, every item identified has been resolved to the full satisfaction of the Monitor,” he added. “She has not and cannot point to even a single instance of controversy or complaint between any of the Defendants and outside third parties.”
He pointed to five reports Ms. Jones previously submitted, in which she wrote that Trump Organization defendants were repeatedly “complying with” and “continuing to comply with” court orders and the third-party monitoring as a pattern of ongoing cooperation and good faith.
“The Monitor now twists immaterial accounting items into a narrative favoring her continued appointment, and thereby the continued receipt of millions of dollars in excessive fees,” Mr. Robert argued.
Mr. Robert argued there is no purpose in continuing the monitoring of Trump Organization going forward.
Ruling, Penalties Imminent
President Trump and other Trump Organization executives were sued by New York Attorney General Letitia James in September 2022 for fraud in the organization’s financial statements from 2011 to 2021.
New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron has already found the defendants liable for fraud, and is expected to issue an order this week that will detail the penalties President Trump will have to pay.
The attorney general is seeking $370 million in disgorgement, which is the difference in what the state claims Trump Organization would have paid in interest and fees if the financial statement totals had been lower, plus several other penalties.
The judge had already ordered the cancellation of President Trump’s business certificates and the dissolution of Trump Organization companies. The ambiguous order had been put on pause by an appeals court after defense attorneys argued it would upend the livelihoods of hundreds of employees overnight. It was not clear whether an independent receiver would then sell off Trump Organization properties under bankruptcy procedures, and the judge had said he would revisit the details.
The attorney general is also seeking to bar President Trump from doing business in New York or with New York-based financial organizations for life, as well as five-year bans for his sons Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., who are executive vice presidents at Trump Organization.
end
Late-Night Vote Advances Mayorkas Impeachment Articles To House Floor
WEDNESDAY, JAN 31, 2024 – 08:30 AM
Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times,
All 18 Republican members of the House Committee on Homeland Security (HCHS) voted on Jan. 31 after more than 14 hours of often impassioned debate to refer two articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to the full House for a final vote as the panel’s 15 Democrats unanimously opposed the measure.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) has said he expects the impeachment measure to be voted on by the House of Representatives “as soon as possible.”
Before that can happen, however, the House Rules Committee, led by Chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.), must adopt a rule for how the articles will be considered for that vote, including whether to allow amendments from the floor.
When the measure does reach the House floor for a final vote, there are 14 Democrats who may face a tough decision on how they will vote regarding Mr. Mayorkas’ future. That is because each of the 14 voted in favor of H. Res. 957 on Jan. 17. That resolution was approved by the full House on a 225-187 vote, with 21 members not voting. Twelve of the 21 not voting were Democrats and nine were Republicans.
The resolution put the House on record in denouncing “the Biden administration’s open-borders policies … condemn[ing] the national security and public safety crisis that President Joe Biden, ‘Border Czar’ Vice President Kamala Harris, Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas, and other Biden administration officials have created along the southwest border; and urg[ing] President Biden to end his administration’s open-borders policies.”
The 14 Democrats include Colin Allred of Texas, Yadira Caraveo of Colorado, Angie Craig of Minnesota, Michael Cuellar of Texas, Don Davis of North Carolina, Jared Golden of Maine, Vicente Gonzalez of Texas, Greg Landsman of Ohio, Susie Lee of Nevada, Jared Moskowitz of Florida, Wiley Nickel of North Carolina, Mary Peltola of Alaska, Marie Perez of Washington, and Eli Sorenson of Illinois.
Article I of the measure accuses Mr. Mayorkas of a “willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law,” and claims that, “In large part because of his unlawful conduct, millions of aliens have illegally entered the United States on an annual basis with many unlawfully remaining in the United States.
“His refusal to obey the law is not only an offense against the separation of powers in the Constitution of the United States, it also threatens our national security and has had a dire impact on communities across the country.”
Among more than a dozen examples of that refusal, the article declares that Mr. Mayorkas chose not to “comply with the detention mandate set forth in section 235(b)(2)(A) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, requiring that all applicants for admission who are ‘not clearly and beyond a doubt entitled to be admitted … shall be detained for a [removal] proceeding …’
“Instead of complying with this requirement, Alejandro N. Mayorkas implemented a catch and release scheme, whereby such aliens are unlawfully released, even without effective mechanisms to ensure appearances before the immigration courts for removal proceedings or to ensure removal in the case of aliens ordered removed.”
Article II accuses Mr. Mayorkas of breaching the public trust by his having “knowingly made false statements, and knowingly obstructed lawful oversight of the Department of Homeland Security [hereinafter referred to as ‘DHS’], principally to obfuscate the results of his willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law.”
Among 10 alleged examples, the article argues that Mr. Mayorkas “delayed or denied access of DHS Office of Inspector General [herein-after referred to as ‘OIG’] to DHS records and information, hampering OIG’s ability to effectively perform its vital investigations, audits, inspections, and other reviews of agency programs and operations to satisfy the OIG’s obligations.”
There are 72 statutory OIGs working in Cabinet-level federal departments and independent agencies investigating allegations of waste, fraud, and abuse. The OIG system was established by Congress in 1978, and while the president appoints these officials, they answer first to Congress.
Throughout the day’s debate, Democrats claimed Mr. Mayorkas lacks needed resources to do his job, including sufficient space to hold all of the millions of illegal immigrants detained by the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol (CBP).
Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas testifies before the House Homeland Security Committee in Washington on Nov. 15, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)
But Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, in an impassioned response, pointed to the homeland secretary’s budget requests and decisions to close detention centers.
“Secretary Mayorkas has requested less detention space. In fiscal year 2022, $2.7 billion for 54,000 beds, including 2,500 for family units, and in fiscal year 2021, $3.1 billion for 60,000 beds, including 5,000 for family units, and for fiscal year 2023, he requested $1.4 billion for 25,000 beds, and for fiscal year 2024, Secretary Mayorkas reduced it again, down to $1.3 billion for 25,000 beds,” Ms. Greene told the hearing.
The Georgia Republican also quoted from Department of Homeland Security (DHS) budget requests that said “a reduction in detention capacity space would not reduce the … ability to apprehend and remove non-citizens that present a threat to national security, border security and public safety.”
She further noted that Mr. Mayorkas closed existing DHS detention facilities in Florida, Louisiana, and North Carolina “while paroling en masse millions of illegal aliens into our country.”
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) speaks at a House Committee on Homeland Security hearing in Washington on Jan. 18, 2024. (NTD)
Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas), responding to the Democrats’ claim of insufficient resources for DHS, reminded the hearing that Mr. Mayorkas has said the border is secure and has never asked Congress for additional resources.
Rep. Josh Brecheen (R-Okla.) told The Epoch Times during the debate that, “James Madison wrote back in 1789, ‘If an unworthy man be continued in office by an unworthy president, the House of Representatives can at any time impeach him.’ So, the House of Representatives is well within its authority to impeach Secretary Mayorkas for his dereliction of duty. This impeachment is not about policy differences or politics. It is about the rule of law. Nobody is above congressional statute or our Constitution. Secretary Mayorkas has violated at least eight federal laws. We have no choice but to impeach him.”
Amendments to delete each of the two articles were offered by Rep. Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-Texas) and Rep. Lou Correa (D-Calif.), and both were rejected on voice votes after lengthy debate.
Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) in Washington on Jan. 27, 2023. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
During the debate on Mr. Correa’s amendment, Rep. Dan Goldman (R-N.Y.), who spoke more frequently than any of his Democratic colleagues during the long hearing, decried the Republicans’ argument that Mr. Mayorkas has obstructed congressional oversight and ignored subpoenas.
“You say we have obstruction of Congress. What obstruction, what subpoenas are you talking about? He has testified more than any other cabinet secretary in the Biden administration. He has cooperated far beyond what any single department did in the Trump administration … You do not specify a single subpoena or a single example of how Secretary Mayorkas has obstructed,” Mr. Goldman said.
Looming over the proceeding, according to Democrats on the panel, was former President Donald Trump. Late in the evening, for example, as the debate continued on Mr. Correa’s amendment, Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) accused Republicans of hypocrisy because they have not condemned Mr. Trump’s many alleged crimes.
Similarly, Rep. Donald Payne (D-N.J.) suggested the explanation for the massive amounts of fentanyl coming across the border into the United States during Mr. Mayorkas’ tenure is a result of Americans demanding the drug that has killed more than 100,000 men, women, and children, many as a result of taking medicine they did not know was laced with the deadly substance. Mr. Payne’s comment drew a sharp rebuke from Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.), who called it “the most ridiculous thing I’ve heard all day.”
When Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) offered an amendment that described in great detail his opinion that the impeachment effort by Republicans was solely intended to help President Trump’s campaign to win a second term in the White House in November. “It’s about Donald Trump still doesn’t accept Joe Biden as president and this impeachment is the continuation of the insurrection of January 6.”
Committee Chairman Mark Green (R-Tenn.) then ruled the Swalwell amendment out of order, a motion was made to table it, and the chairman’s ruling was upheld on yet another straight party-line vote, 18-15.
The same process was repeated with the same result when Mr. Swalwell introduced a second similar amendment. And it was repeated a third time with the same result when Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) introduced yet another similar amendment.
As the midnight hour approached, tempers and patience began growing shorter, particularly after Rep. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) screamed at Republicans for what he called their allegiance to “the orange Jesus, as you call him,” an apparent reference to Mr. Trump.
As the debate continued late in the evening, Ms. Jackson-Lee conceded that “Secretary Mayorkas is going to be impeached by this committee tonight, anybody who can count can see that.” But the debate continued on late into the night.
THE KING REPORT
M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
| Wednesday January 31, 2024 – Issue 7170 “Independent View of the News” |
Biden Says Do Not Need Wider War in Mideast – BBG 10:40 ET
Who (and why) would issue such a weak response? Team Obama Biden handlers that are Iranphiles!
Biden: Iran Responsible for Supplying Weapons in Recent Attack – BBG 10:50 ET
Biden: Made Decision on How US Will Respond to Recent Attack – BBG 11:04 ET
GOP Sen. @tedcruz: Joe Biden stopped enforcing oil sanctions and let $100 billion flow to Iran. In a very real way, Joe Biden funded the drone attack that just killed three of our servicemembers. Sending money to a theocratic lunatic chanting “death to America” is a bad idea.
2024 iPhone shipments likely to decline significantly by about 15% YoY due to structural challenges by renowned TF International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo
- My latest supply chain survey indicates that Apple has lowered its 2024 iPhone shipments of key upstream semiconductor components to about 200 million units (down 15% YoY)…
- Apple’s weekly shipments in China have declined by 30–40% YoY in recent weeks, and this downward trend is expected to continue. The main reason for the decline is the return of Huawei and the fact that foldable phones have gradually become the first choice for high-end users in the Chinese market… https://medium.com/@mingchikuo/2024-iphone-shipments-likely-to-decline-significantly-by-about-15-yoy-due-to-structural-challenges-1cedb3ea3b85
Apple stock falls 1.5% as analyst Kuo says iPhone shipments could drop 15% in 2024
UPS to slash 12,000 jobs in cost-saving move as workers ordered to be in office 5 days a week https://t.co/GMhXu2DmFj
PayPal to lay off 2,000 employees: Axios (BBG says 9% labor force cut, ~2500 jobs)
This would come on top of the 68,000 tech workers who already have lost their jobs so far in 2023, according to tracking site Layoffs.fyi… https://www.axios.com/2023/01/31/paypal-layoffs-tech-companies
December JOLTS Job Openings unexpectedly jumped to 9.026m from 8.925m; 8.75m was expected.
The Conference Board’s January Consumer Confidence was the expected 114.8; but December was revised lower, to 108 from 110.7. This is the 3rd straight lower revision. Bidenomics, catch it!
The Present Situation gauge jumped to 116.13 from 147.2. Expectations increased to 83.8 from a downwardly revised 81.9 (from 85.6 – how can these revisions be so large?).
Conference Board Confidence ‘Revised’ Lower For 3rd Straight Month… Is Bidenomics all simply driven by ‘seasonal adjustments’ and historical revisions? https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/conference-board-confidence-revised-lower-3rd-straight-month-present-situation-pre-covid
@RealEJAntoni: Jan consumer confidence jumps to 2-year high. Biggest gains by age group? 55+
Why? B/c they’ve watching their inflation-adjusted retirement accounts get clobbered but the late rally has made them feel better. Can it last? Only as long as Fed keeps artificially boosting reserves…
RealEJAntoni: Putting the BS in BLS? Quarterly census has 332k private sector job gains in Q2 ’23 vs. 603k increase in nonfarm payrolls from monthly jobs reports – which were already revised heavily downward; explains why people hate this economy: job gains roughly half the advertised figure.
“The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program publishes a quarterly count of employment and wages reported by employers covering more than 95 percent of U.S. jobs [emphasis added], available at the county, MSA, state and national levels by industry.” https://bls.gov/cew/
Peter St Onge, Ph.D. @profstonge: Turns out half the jobs were fake. Worth noting the WSJ estimates over half of new jobs were government or welfare. Makes you wonder if we gained any real jobs at all.
ESHs waffled between moderate losses and modest gains from the Nikkei opening until they broke lower after the 2 ET Chinese close. After hitting a bottom of 4946.00 at 2:13 ET, the rally for the European open took ESHs to 4953.50 by 3:30 ET. ESHs then traded sideways until they broke lower again at 7:35 ET. ESHs eventually hit a daily low of 4940.75 at 8:21 ET.
The conditioned rally for the NYSE open took ESHs to 4950.00 at 10:00 ET. The dump then appeared; ESHs fell to 4944.00 at 10:23 ET. ESHs then gyrated wildly until the rally for the 11:30 ET European close pushed ESHs to 4955.50 at 11:51 ET. At 12:13 ET, ESHs sank and hit 4941.50 at 12:33 ET.
An early afternoon A-B-C rally pushed ESHs to 4955.00 at 14:32 ET. Normally, traders would eagerly get long MSFT, Google, and ESHs for those Fangs’ results that were due after the close. However, at 14:45 ET, Google was -0.98% and Microsoft was -0.37%. Why were these stocks soft ahead of results?
While Google and Microsoft struggled to advance in the latter afternoon, ESHs inched higher. When the final hour arrived, ESHs retreated. Near 15:20 ET, Microsoft jumped higher, ESHs and Google followed. ESHs hit a daily high of 4957.25 at 15:28 ET. Suddenly, ESHs sank to 4549.50 at 15:40 ET. After a modest rebound, ESHs fell to 4945.25 at 16:00 ET.
USHs rallied from the Nikkei opening until they sank after the stronger than expected December JOLTS Job Openings. USHs hit a daily high of 121 14/32 at 9:47 ET and then tumbled to a daily low of 120 19/32 at 10:19 ET. USHs then had and A-B-C rally and hit 121 13/32 at NYSE close.
Positive aspects of previous session
The DJIA rallied moderately; USHs rallied sharply
Negative aspects of previous session
Fangs declined on Apple, which pulled Nasdaq lower; The DJTA declined
Gold, WTI Oil, and gasoline rallied sharply
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How long can the Treasury and others manipulate data and markets to benefit Biden’s reelection?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4922.40
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4931.09; 4916.27
Senate Banking Chair Urges Fed to Cut Rate ‘Early This Year’ – BBG 12:02 ET
Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown says high rates hurting Americans (and Biden/Dems 2024 changes)
The letter from the Ohio Democrat, who is running for reelection in 2024 comes at the start of a two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee… Powell is facing increasing pressure from Democrats (and Fed leftists) to mind the economy in a presidential election year…
Sen. Elizabeth Warren pushes Fed Chair Powell to cut ‘astronomical’ rates, ease housing pressure
Elizabeth Warren and three other Democrats urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to bring down interest rates at the upcoming Fed meeting to expand affordable housing…
Renowned monetary analyst @judyshel: My guess is Chairman Powell will wait till July 30-31 meeting to announce rate cut; gives him the August gathering at Jackson Hole to pontificate on how to explain it
By demanding that the Fed cut rates ASAP, in an election year, Democrats have placed the Fed in a very unsavory political situation. If they cut rates, the Fed will appear to be Democrat stooges. If the Fed cuts rates at the end of July as Shelton guesses, it will violate the long-standing Fed tradition of not changing rates within 6 months of a general election – unless there is a systemic or economic problem.
NYT: Why Cut Rates in an Economy This Strong? A Big Question Confronts the Fed.
The central bank is widely expected to lower interest rates this year. But with growth and consumer spending chugging along, explaining it may take some work… (To aid & abet Biden!)
In short, interest rates are high enough that officials would expect them to seriously weigh on the economy. So why isn’t growth slowing more markedly? (Huge fiscal stimulus and the Treasury Acct!)
The Fed’s Independence Was Nice While It Lasted by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist
Modern-day central bank independence is effectively over in all but name. Persistently large government deficits, central banks with trillions of dollars of sovereign debt and the political toxicity of elevated inflation make it impossible any longer for the Federal Reserve, ECB et al to set monetary policy fully independently from their government overseers…
This is not just a US phenomenon. Across much of the developed market, budget deficits have never been as high while unemployment has been as low…
The Treasury’s account at the Fed (the TGA) further inflames the outlook. Since the GFC and a monetary system of superabundant reserves (created by trillions of dollars of QE), the Treasury has used its Fed account more. But it was not until the pandemic its size grew to over $1.7 trillion.
At ~$830 billion it’s lower now, and the Treasury aims to keep it around $750 billion. But that’s still a huge lake of liquidity, and the Treasury either significantly adding to it – i.e. taking reserves out of the system and reducing liquidity – or drawing it down, boosting liquidity, has a consequential market impact… The period of poor S&P returns in the 2022 bear market were accompanied by a worsening trend in reserves, driven by, among other things, a high and generally rising TGA…
A less independent Fed and a spendthrift government is structurally inflationary. This means the end of the nominal Fed put – a backstop for financial assets, i.e. stocks and bonds – as elevated inflation eats away at real values… Central banks might argue that losing their independence will make inflation even worse. But perhaps the only reason they won it in the first place was the world was in an era of structurally weaker inflation driven mainly by demographics and globalization…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-independence-was-nice-while-it-lasted
The Fed claims to be ‘data dependent.’ Does the Fed realize US econ data is meaningfully bogus?
BBG’s @lisaabramowicz1: Corporate bond sales hit $188.6 billion in the US in January, setting a record for the month. “We could easily see $200 billion of sales this month.”
After the close, Microsoft reported Q2 EPS of 2.93 (2.78 exp.); Revenue of $62.02B ($61.14B exp.); Cloud Rev of $33.7B ($32.21B exp.). MSFT was -1.8% at 16:02 ET due to disappointing cloud growth.
Google reported Q4 EPS of 1.64 (1.59 exp.); Rev ex-TAX of $72.32B ($70.97B exp.); Cloud Rev $91.9B ($8.95B exp.) Google sank 6.5% by 16:02 ET because Ad Revenue was $65.2B & $65.8B was consensus.
Starbucks Sales Miss Estimates as Check-Size Growth Slows – BBG 16:08 ET
Same-store sales… rose 5%… 6.4%… expected… earnings…were 90 cents a share, while analysts expected 93 cents. Net revenue of $9.4 billion fell short of the $6.6 billion average forecast.
AMD reported Q4 EPS of .77 (.77 exp.); Rev of $6.2B ($6.13B exp.); and Adj operating income of $1.41B (1.43B exp.). AMD hit -6.5% at 16:15 ET.
Mondelez Slides (3.5%) after 2024 Revenue Outlook Misses Estimate – BBG 16:31 ET
Adjusted EPS 84c, estimate 78c; Revenue $9.31 billion, estimate $9.34 billion… North American organic revenue +1.9%, estimate +4.16%…
@CNBC: Tesla shares slide after(Delaware)judge voids Elon Musk’s $56 billion compensation
@elonmusk: Never incorporate your company in the state of Delaware
@zerohedge: Musk now getting the Trump judicial treatment. Defamation lawsuits next.
Who is Kathaleen McCormick, the judge who slashed Elon Musk’s pay package?
McCormick started her career with the Delaware branch of the Legal Aid Society, which helps low-income people navigate the court system. She went into private practice for financial reasons, joining one of the state’s top corporate law firms, Young Conaway Stargatt & Taylor, according to her confirmation testimony to the Delaware Senate. “They taught me a form of advocacy that appealed to my natural inclination,” she told the senate… (Delaware Dem Gov. John Carney appointee)
Bank of Japan: Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on January 22, 23, 2024
Given the rise in services prices, inflationary pressure stemming from wage increases seems to be rising. However, achievement of the price stability target of 2 percent is not yet envisaged with sufficient certainty.
There is a growing possibility that the wage growth to be agreed in this spring’s labor-management wage negotiations will exceed that agreed last spring. Therefore, there is increasing momentum toward achieving a virtuous cycle between wages and prices…
Sustainable and stable achievement of the price stability target has not yet come in sight, and thus the Bank needs to patiently continue with monetary easing under yield curve control…
Although achievement of the price stability target of 2 percent is not yet envisaged with sufficient certainty, it is necessary for the Bank to start discussing the exit from the current monetary policy, since the achievement of the target is becoming more realistic…
In order to proceed deliberately along the path of monetary policy normalization in response
to developments in economic activity and prices, the Bank needs to decide on the termination of the negative interest rate policy at an appropriate timing as a first step toward the normalization…
Today is Fed Day. The market expects no change in policy and the FOMC, as well as Powell, to indicate that it will cut rates in March, or soon thereafter. Ergo, the key will be Powell’s Press Conference. In recent Fed Day appearances, Powell’s prepared remarks have been slightly hawkish, but in the ensuing Q&A session, Powell has issued dovish statements. The usual suspects expect Powell to be dovish and give some indication that the Fed will soon cut rates. Ergo, the market is vulnerable to disappointment.
Nevertheless, the usual suspects want to manipulate stuff higher to game January performance.
Expected Economic Data: ADP Employment Change 150k, Q4 Employment Cost Index 1.0%; Jan Chicago PMI 48.0; FOMC Communique 14:00 ET, Powell Press Conference 14:30 ET; US Treasury Quarterly Refunding announcement
Expected earnings: PSX 2.35, BA -.76, HES 1.38, ROK 2.66, MA 3.08, AFL 1.45, MET 1.91, CHRW .80
ESHs tumbled to 4933.50 (-20.00) at 16:57 ET due to the sharp declines in MSFT, AMD, and Google.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 4696; 100-day MA: 4516; 150-day MA: 4501; 200-day MA: 4427
DJIA 50-day MA: 36,866; 100-day MA: 35,341; 150-day MA: 35,143; 200-day MA: 34,762
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4026.83 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4583.55 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4830.72 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4891.99 triggers a sell signal
Biden says ‘I’ve done all I can at the border’ https://trib.al/OsUMDu6
Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: Shortly after this, a WH spox denied POTUS has exercised the limit of his authority. DALTON: “… certainly [Biden] feels there are things that are within his power, but there are also things that are not within his power that he is looking for a congressional authority to do,”
GOP @SpeakerJohnson: President Biden said “I’ve done all I can do” with executive authority to secure the border. That is simply untrue. He’s either lying or misinformed. Here are just a few of the authorities at his disposal – if only he would use them: • Presidential Authority to Restrict Entry 212(f)
• Expedited Removal 235(b)(1)
• Discretionary Detention Authority 236(a)
• Mandatory Detention 236(c)
GOP Sen. @marcorubio: Why would we agree to a deal where border security depends on the President first determining the border is being overwhelmed when that same President spent 3 years denying we had a border crisis at all?
Just like with guns, Democrats want new immigration laws when they don’t enforce existing laws.
NY Eyes Rule Changes to Hire Thousands Amid Migrant Crisis – BBG
New York state is considering a plan to hire thousands of migrants and asylum-seekers who have legal work status in the US but may face barriers to finding jobs such as language skills or prior experience…
Mayor Eric Adams expects the city will spend roughly $10.6 billion to care for migrants over the three-year period ending in June 2025. The city spends an average of $352 per night to care for each migrant family, city budget officials said… https://ca.news.yahoo.com/york-eyes-rule-changes-hire-012142486.html
@GLNoronha: The DOJ has indicted an Iranian drug trafficker and a Canadian Hells Angels hitman working with Iranian intelligence to kill two Americans in Maryland. The Hells Angels member was building a 4-man squad to carry out the killings for $350,000.
FBI Tied January 6 Pipe Bomber to Metro Card of Ex-Gov Official, But Blocked Interview of Him, Former Agent Says – Kyle Seraphin, who led FBI surveillance teams, told The Daily Wire that shortly after January 6, a counterintelligence team met him at a firehouse in Falls Church, Virginia to brief him on his next surveillance target: They had used security footage to follow the person into a Metro station after he planted the bombs, and identified the fare card that was used.
That fare card then allowed them to determine that the person got off at a Metro stop in Northern Virginia, where surveillance footage showed the person entering a car. Both the car and the fare card were in the name of the same person — a retired Air Force chief master sergeant who was now working as a contractor with a security clearance, they said…
But the FBI blocked his request to interview the person, he said. Then they were called off the target completely and told to pore through low-priority leads about minor January 6 participants, he said.
@ByronYork: Trump lawyer says defense just learned that E Jean Carroll judge was once ‘mentor’ to Carroll’s lawyer. ‘This issue is particularly concerning since Plaintiff’s other lead counsel, Shawn Crowley, served as Your Honor’s law clerk, and we were previously advised that Your Honor co-officiated her wedding.’ https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.543790/gov.uscourts.nysd.543790.281.0_1.pdf
Section Three and the “First Insurrection” … That Wasn’t
Professors Akhil Amar and Vik Amar have submitted an interesting amicus brief in Trump v. Anderson, the case involving Donald Trump’s potential disqualification under Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment. The brief claims that Section Three represents the framers’ response to two insurrections, one tall and one small, and that the small one is analogous to the events of January 6, 2021…
The brief is fun and imaginative, as is everything the Amars write. Unfortunately, in this case the historical evidence does not support the argument. Their brief is an unsuccessful attempt to place someone who wasn’t there at an insurrection that did not occur. Even more damningly for their side, the brief calls attention to an 1862 statute that actually blows a hole through the already weak originalist case for disqualification…
The brief insists that the successful counting of electoral votes on February 13, 1861 was “a close run thing.”[20] It wasn’t. Whatever the memories of participants three decades in the future,[21] reports at the time indicated that the counting of votes and the inauguration of Abraham Lincoln were completely peaceful. There was no “First Insurrection,” attempted or otherwise. This means there was no “small” insurrection that served as a model for Section Three…
Despite the express reference to “every person elected or appointed to any office,” future framer of Section Three Senator Lyman Trumbull insisted that this general language did not include the office of President of the United States… In conclusion: Neither this brief nor any other submission in Trump v. Anderson provides a plausible originalist argument that Section Three prevents the people from choosing their president… https://reason.com/volokh/2024/01/29/section-three-and-the-first-insurrection-that-wasnt/
Nancy Pelosi’s son Paul Pelosi Jr. dodges federal charges for the SEVENTH time after being linked to money laundering and mail fraud scheme involving a San Francisco Flop house
Squad member Cori Bush under criminal investigation by the Department of Justice for allegedly misusing funds meant for private security: Democrat (Rep) married one of her bodyguards
The DOJ is investigating the ‘Squad’ member who has been a cheerleader for defunding the police in the past while simultaneously demanding private security. https://trib.al/WovYQ7h
@FLVoiceNews: Gov. Ron DeSantis calls for deportation of Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., over comments on putting Somali interests first: “Expel from Congress, denaturalize and deport!”
Chicago skyscraper jokingly referred to by locals as the ‘V@#^#@ Building’ sells for just half the $121M it fetched in 2017 https://trib.al/u5jjinB
Is There a Taylor Swift Psyop? (Things are so absurd now, one cannot easily discern parody)
The singer, who has made an entire career whining about having chosen the wrong men, has been pitched by legacy media as finally finding the “perfect match”: Kansas City Chiefs Travis Kelce…
Let’s begin with Michael Benz, a former Trump admin State Department official whose work has been cited in congressional hearings, posted on X a video from 2019 featuring the Pentagon’s psychological operations research arm that pitched the idea of turning Taylor into an asset to combat “disinformation.”… Perhaps it’s not by chance that the story count in corporate media for Taylor has exponentially exploded, averaging above 1,000 per day since late September…
FLASHBACK: Taylor Swift: “After I was denied the chance to purchase my music outright, my entire catalog was sold to Scooter Braun’s Ithaca Holdings in a deal that I’m told was funded by the Soros family, 23 Capital and the Carlyle Group,”… https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/there-taylor-swift-psyop
@TheSpectator: “Taylor Swift the new Meghan Markle when it comes to dividing opinion, although Swift is arguably more controversial because she was once a conservative darling and a hate figure among left-liberals. Today she’s the opposite.” (On her abortion view & expectation of endorsing Biden)
END
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU ON THURSDAY
harveyorganblog.com 
Harvey: I challenge you to use your own brain to spot political HORSE SHIT articles. Here’s a lots of them involve false or exaggerated claims if vaccine injury…
LikeLike