SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES

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Last Updated 02 Feb 2024 04:03:05 PM CT.

Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.

MONTH	LAST	CHANGE	PRIOR SETTLE	OPEN	HIGH	LOW	VOLUME	UPDATED
FEB 2024 SGUG4	–	–	2091.0	–	–	–	0	12:30:21 CT 02 Feb 2024
MAR 2024 SGUH4	–	–	2101.5	–	–	–	0	12:30:21 CT 02 Feb 2024
APR 2024 SGUJ4	2108.6	+7.2 (+0.34%)	2101.4	2103.1	2108.6	2102.0	155	12:30:21 CT 02 Feb 2024
MAY 2024 SGUK4	–	–	–	–	–	–	0	–
JUN 2024 SGUM4	–	–	2113.1	–	–	–	0	12:30:21 CT 02 Feb 2024
AUG 2024 SGUQ4	–	–	2113.7	–	–	–	0	12:30:21 CT 02 Feb 2024
OCT 2024 SGUV4	–	–	2114.3	–	–	–	0	12:30:21 CT 02 Feb 2024
DEC 2024 SGUZ4	–	–	2114.9	–	–	–	0	12:30:21 CT 02 Feb 2024
FEB 2025 SGUG5	–	–	–	–	–	–	0	–

About this Report

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros

4: 15 PM ACCESS

*CANADIAN GOLD: $2,741.08 UP DOWN 8.50 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 2,795.90 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//DEC 1 2023)

*BRITISH GOLD: 1611.21 DOWN 0.40 pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1655.17 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 2/2023

*EURO GOLD: 1886.88 DOWN 2.50 euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 1903.75 EUROS PER OZ//DEC 1.2023)

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,053.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/01/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 02/05/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

072 C GOLDMAN 3
104 C MIZUHO 6
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 12
190 H BMO CAPITAL 46
323 C HSBC 170
357 C WEDBUSH 1
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 10
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 100
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 118
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 31
661 C JP MORGAN 78 41
690 C ABN AMRO 32 8
737 C ADVANTAGE 53 19
880 H CITIGROUP 5
905 C ADM 3

TOTAL: 368 368
MONTH TO DATE: 15,810

JPMorgan stopped 41/368 contracts.

FOR FEB.:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2024. CONTRACT: 368 NOTICES FOR 36,800 OZ or 1.1446 TONNES

total notices so far: 15,810 contracts for 1,581,000 Oz (49.175 tonnes)

FOR FEBRUARY:

SILVER NOTICES 7 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 35,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 624 for 3,120,000 oz

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END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $17.95

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.15 TONNES

SLV//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS AT THE SLV//

MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV AGAIN: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0,458 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 438.489 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 755 CONTRACTS TO 137,141 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.07 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. WE HAD A ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION BUT A CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING. WE HAD A HUGE 700 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY.

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 700 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.

WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.07), AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 1455 CONTRACTS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:

A STRONG SIZED 700 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.535 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) ACCOMPANYING A STRANGE 89 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR EX. FOR RISK FOR 445,000 OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE/ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 50,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL; 4,030 MILLION OZ

//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 4.030MILLION OZ

/ STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 700 CONTRACTS)/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED 467 CONTRACTS //

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 2 days, total 1050 contracts: OR 5.250 MILLION OZ (525 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 5.25 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 5.25 MILLION OZ.

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 755 CONTRACTS WITH OUR TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 700 ISSUED FOR MARCH AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB. OF 3.535 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANIED BY FIRST DAY NOTICE OF 445,000 OZ EX. FOR RISK FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 50,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL 4.030 MILLION OZ

NEW STANDING 4.030 million OZ /// WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 1922 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE TINY GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 700 CONTRACTS//SOME FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERINGS FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS . THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (700) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .

WE HAD 7 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 35,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2757 CONTRACTS TO 430,036 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED XX CONTRACTS

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 2757 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $5.00 GAIN IN PRICE//THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 49.773 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE ACCOMPANIED BY FIRST DAY NOTICE : 55,400 OZ EX. FOR RISK //THUS INITIAL STANDING FOR FEB: 51.494 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 27,900 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING: 52.696 TONNES // ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $5.00 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 85 OI CONTRACTS (0.2643) PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2842 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 430,036

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 85 CONTRACTS WITH 2757 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A GOOD SIZED 2842 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 416 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 2169 CONTRACTS.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2842 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (2757) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 85 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 49.773 TONNES PLUS FIRST DAY NOTICE OF 1.723 TONNE OZ EX. FOR RISK FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 27,900 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 52.696 TONNES. / 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION // 4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2169 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

FEB.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB. :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 12,079 CONTRACTS OR 1,207,900 OZ OR 37,57 TONNES IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 6040 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 37,57 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 37,57/3550 x 100% TONNES 1,07% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 37.57 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 755 CONTRACTS OI TO 137,141 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 700 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MARCH 700 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 700 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 755 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 700 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1455 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 7.225 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED WITH OUR TINY $.05 GAIN IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 40.59 PTS OR 1.46% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 32.65 PTS OR 0.21% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 146.56 OR 0.41% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.44% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP AT 7.1775 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.1807 /Oil DOWN TO 74.04dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 78.78/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3 CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 2757 CONTRACTS TO 430,367 DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.00 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY TRADING.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 2842 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 2842 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2842 CONTRACTS

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 85 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2842 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2757 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.00 THURSDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED 2169 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: FEB (52,696 TONNES) ( ACTIVE MONTH)

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR: 19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676 tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24: 52,696 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT GAINED $5.00 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 85 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A FAIR T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF THURSDAY’S TRADING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED CONSIDERABLE SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AT HIGHER PRICES AS WELL AS FINAL LIQUIDATION OF OUR SPREADERS.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 0.2643 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB. (49.773 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE ALONG WITH AN EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 1.7235 TONNES. THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH TODAY’S 27,900 OZ QUEUE JUMP .867 TONNES//NEW TOTAL STANDING 52.696: ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $5.00

WE HAD – REMOVED 331 CONTRACT TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 416 CONTRACTS OR 41,600 OZ OR 1.294 TONNES.

Estimated gold volume today:// 226,093 fair

final gold volumes/yesterday 276,094 fair

//speculators have left the gold arena

FEB 2 INITIAL FEB GOLD

/ /// THE FEB 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	52,406.130 OZ Brinks 1630 KILOBARS OR 1.63 TONNES .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	NIL oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	368 notice(s) 36,800 OZ 36.264 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	578 contracts 57,800 oz 1.797 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	15,810 notices 1581,000 oz 49,175 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	x

0 dealer deposits:

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total customer withdrawals: 1

i) Out of Brinks 52,406.130 OZ (1630 KILOBAERS)

total withdrawals 52,406.130 oz 1

we had 0 customer deposits

total customer deposits NIL oz

Adjustments; 1

dealer to customer JPMorgan: 1941.607 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEB.

For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 946 contracts having LOST 11,380 contracts. We had 11,659 notices filed yesterday, so we gained 279 contracts or an additional 27,900 oz will stand in this active delivery month of February.

We also had 554 notices filed under exchange for risk on day one for a total of 55,400 oz or 1.723 tonnes to which must be added to the delivery cycle.

Thus initial standing for gold for February is 50.136 tonnes + 1.723 tonnes = 51.859 tonnes which is pretty good. This was followed with today’s queue jump of 27,900 oz for .867 tonnes//New standing 52.696 TONNES

March LOST 51 contracts to stand at 2017.

APRIL GAINED 7132 CONTRACTS RISING TO 354,545.

We had 368 contracts filed for today representing 36,800 oz

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 78 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 368 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 41 notice(s) was (were) stopped ( received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (15,810 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (946 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 368 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,638,800 OZ OR 50.975 TONNES + 1.723 Ex for Risk/prior = 52.696 tonnes

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB. contract month: No of notices filed so far (15,810) x 100 oz + (946) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (368) x 100 oz) which equals 1,638,800 oz + 54,400 oz ex. for risk/prior// NEW total standing OR 52,696 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR FEB: 52,696 TONNES WHICH IS GREAT FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,350,186.829 41.99 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 19,071,972.955 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 9,204,513.614 (286.29 tonnes).

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,867,459.341 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 7,854,327 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 244,30 tonnes

END

SILVER/COMEX

FEB 2/INITIAL

//2024// THE FEB 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	355,927,100 oz delaware HSBC Manfra .
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	360,674.820 oz Brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)	7 CONTRACT(S) (35,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	93 contracts (465,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	624 Contracts (3,120,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposit: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 1 deposits customer account:

i) Into Brinks 360,674.820 oz

total customer deposits 360,674.820 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 130.199 million oz/274,936 million or 47.44%

adjustment: 0

Comex withdrawals: 23

i) Out of Delaware: 978,400 oz

ii) Out of HSBC 80,474.00 oz

iii) Out of Manfra: 274,474.700 oz

total withdrawal: 355,927,100 oz oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 42.873 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 274.936 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF FRB. /2023 OI: 100 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 60 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 70 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 10 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 50,000 OZ OF SILVER CONTRACTS WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY.

MARCH LOST 850 CONTRACTS TO 95,637

APRIL SAW A LOSS OF 1 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1

MAY SAW A GAIN OF 1371 CONTRACTS UP TO 27,432

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 7 for 35,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 93,367 huge

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 91,506 huge

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 624 x 5,000 oz = 3,120,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (100) and the number of notices served upon today 7 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the FEB/2024 contract month: 624 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB. (100) – number of notices served upon today (7 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB contract month equates to 3.585 MILLION OZ. + .445 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK PRIOR//NEW TOTAL 4,030 MILLION OZ

New total standing: 4.030 million oz.

There are 42.873 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

FEB 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.95 TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES:

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.15 TONNES:

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $16.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.88 TONNES:

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.89 TONNES:

TOTAL IN LAST 18 DAYS WITHDRAWAL OF 14.12 TONNES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAYHUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.05 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES

JAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.75 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $3.95 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.95 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD UP $14.85 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.25 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .549 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.;//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.40 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $31.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.90 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES

JAN 2/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.11 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 851.73 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

FEB 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.489 MILLION OZ//LAST 7 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.19 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.947 MILLION OZ//LAST 6 DAYS: 10.3018 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL

JAN 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7438 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.137 MILLION OZ//LAST 5 DAYS: 9.1118 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL

JAN 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.876 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.699 MILLION OZ//LAST 4 DAYS: 7.368 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP $.37 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.105 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.575 MILLION OZ

JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.556 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.680 MILLION OZ

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.831 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /

INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.236 MILLION OZ

JAN 24/WITH SILVER UP $0.44 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 1.375 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.067 MILLION OZ

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.21 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 16.201 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.694 MILLION OZ

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ

JAN 19/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ

JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.951 MILLION OZ

JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.38 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 779,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.62 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ

JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 450,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,602,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ

JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 916,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.972 MILLION OZ

JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ

JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.294 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ

JAN 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 915,000 OZ FORM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.35 MILLION OZ

DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ

DEC 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.374 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ

THIS IS THE 3RD STRAIGHT DAY THAT THE SLV HAS ENGAGED IN WITHDRAWALS

DEC 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.465 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.639 MILLION OZ

DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.289 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.104 MILLION OZ

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 438.489 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey

Getting Physical: Why Bullion Has Outperformed Gold Stocks

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 12:25 PM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Gold prices have been on a tear, with bullion prices ripping upward since the outbreak of war in the Middle East late last year. While mining stocks have gone up as well, physical gold has been leaving them in the dust:

Gold stock performance is obviously tied to much more than just the bullion price. For one, shareholder value can always be diluted when you’re holding stocks, regardless of the industry. Gold mining companies also have overhead for exploration, extraction, processing, and storage. There are also price fluctuations in oil, materials, and labor that gold miners have to contend with. Physical gold also comes with some overhead — mainly with regard to storage, transportation, and security — but the costs are lower in comparison.

Still, gold mining stocks have the added benefit of paying dividends. They just come with the need to consider a longer list of variables like executive management, the cost of exploration, and aging equipment that could require repair or replacement. When the broader economy isn’t doing great and overhead costs are lower, winning gold miners can fare extremely well.

In fact, winning gold miners can be very profitable and at times can outperform bullion, especially in the shorter and medium-term. That’s why Peter Schiff still recommends allocating capital to gold miners as part of a diversified precious metals portfolio. However, to protect your wealth in the long run in spite of macroeconomic trends, you should also always hold the metal itself. Regardless of which gold mining stocks you choose, nothing beats physical bullion as a safe haven in an inflationary environment where central bank money printing is running amok.

That’s especially true during times like these, when the Fed is expected to start cutting interest rates and printing money to finance meddling in a rapidly-expanding Middle East conflict. If inflation rockets back up, it allows gold miners to set higher prices for their bullion, but increases their overhead due to having to cover their costs in a devalued currency. This doesn’t negate the wisdom of holding the right mining stocks, but reinforces that gold bullion remains the top safe haven asset when it comes to easy money policies and the chaos of war.

Peter Schiff commented on the Commodity Culture podcast:

“To the extent that the Fed just tolerates higher inflation and continues to ease in the face of it, that’s going to destroy the dollar, and then gold’s just going to go through the roof.”

Speaking of inflation, a divergence in the gold with the price of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities could indicate that the market is far from assured that the Fed really has inflation under control. The two split in 2022, with a gap that’s threatening to widen even more in the coming months if the gold price accelerates upward.

Owning stock in the right mining companies is essential for any well-rounded gold investor. The right picks can yield higher returns than physical gold, given certain conditions. But change is one of life’s few guarantees, and with Keynesians still firmly in charge, so is money printing. Physical gold remains the king of stable long-term protection against central bank monetary tinkering and general global chaos.

END

2) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

MATHEW PIEPENBURG

END

3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES:

Ted Butler: A big development in silver

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2024-02-01 19:18 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Ted Butler
SilverSeek.com
Thursday, February 1, 2024

A recent development in Comex silver futures positioning has been unusual enough that I didn’t detect it at first, because it has been somewhat gradual. Over the past five reporting weeks, from the commitment-of-traders report as of Dec. 19, 2023, to the most recent report as of January 23, 2024, the number of long traders in the Other Large Reporting Traders category has increased by 29 traders, from 49 to 78 traders — which I believe is both the largest increase and largest number of long traders in this category ever.

The total number of gross longs in this category added over the past five reporting weeks was close to 6,000 contracts (30 million ounces), and looking at the data every which way, indicates to me that the average holding per each new trader is quite close to 200 contracts each or a nice round 1-million-ounce silver equivalent. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://silverseek.com/article/big-new-development

A Big New Development

February 01, 2024

Ted Butler

A recent development in COMEX silver futures positioning has been unusual enough that I didn’t detect it at first, because it has been somewhat gradual. Over the past five reporting weeks, from the COT report as of Dec 19, 2023 to the most recent report as of January 23, 2024, the number of long traders in the Other Large Reporting Traders category has increased by 29 traders, from 49 to 78 traders – which I believe is both the largest increase and largest number of long traders in this category ever.

I didn’t pick up immediately on what is a rather radical development because the sharp increase in the number long traders in the Other Large Reporting Traders category was gradual, increasing by around 6 traders each week for the past 5 reporting weeks. The total number of gross longs in this category added over the past five reporting weeks was close to 6000 contracts (30 million oz) and looking at the data every which way, indicates to me that the average holding per each new trader is quite close to 200 contracts each or a nice round one million oz silver equivalent.

Let me provide some background explanation before getting into any speculation about what all this may mean. The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is constructed around the Large Trader Reporting Program in place just about forever. The CFTC has set the level of contracts held (either long or short or held by commercial or non-commercial traders) in every market at and above which determines whether one is a large reporting trader. In COMEX silver futures, the reporting level is 150 contracts and any trader holding that number of contracts or more is considered a large reporting trader and must report any changes in his or her position daily, until the number of contracts held falls below 150 contracts.

In addition to the continual reporting of changes in contract holdings as long as a trader remains above contract reporting levels, when a trader first enters into the ranks of being a large trader, a rather extensive personal disclosure form must be submitted and any intentional misstatement of ownership of this or any related account or trading authority can and will result in civil or criminal penalties. This is designed to protect against any attempt to hide the identity of anyone attempting to deal in multiple accounts that share common ownership. By the way, the CFTC has proven to be quite proficient in uncovering misrepresentations of ownership and control of large reporting trader accounts. After all, what’s the purpose of having a large trader reporting program if lying is tolerated in large trader representations?

I mention this because if the 29 or so new long silver traders in the Other Large Reporting Trader’s category are actually just one or two large traders masquerading as many separate traders, that is a ruse that could and should be quickly uncovered and punished. It’s hard for me to imagine anyone being so reckless to attempt this and I’m inclined to believe these 29 new reporting traders are separate and legitimate entities, and not some attempt by one or two large traders to hide their identity and involvement in the new reporting traders

Let me make this clear, while not for everyone – the idea of buying 200 COMEX silver contracts for those qualified to do so may make all the sense in the world. While I would never recommend anyone buy silver on a leveraged basis, if anyone did decide to do so, COMEX futures contracts would seem to make sense. Here’s perhaps the best way of holding the equivalent of 1 million oz of silver, worth roughly $23 million on a highly leveraged basis in which only roughly $2 million is required for an initial margin requirement. Of course, such deep leverage cuts both ways and every dollar lower from what looks like an average cost of around $23, would require an additional $1 million in maintenance margin.

Then again, every dollar higher equals $1 million in unrealized profit and it appears certain to me that silver is likely to climb much more sharply than it may fall over time. And there are other costs to a long, such as rollover costs as nearby contracts come up for delivery and must be rolled into more expensive deferred contract months, which at current levels of interest rates can run close to $40,000 per month on 200 contracts. Still, all things considered, being long one million oz of silver is much more appealing than being short a million oz.

Upon first discovering, a few days ago, the sharp increase of 60% in the number of new traders (29) over the past five reporting weeks, I thought the new traders were actually brand new to futures trading, in the sense they all just happened to open new commodity accounts over the past five weeks and each decide to buy around 200 contracts per trader. But the practicality and logic of that explanation began to quickly wear thin, as for one thing, such an occurrence most likely would involve some type of collusion.

Then it dawned on me. These 29 “new” traders weren’t really new at all, but rather existing traders which were previously classified in the non-reportable, or “small” trader category, and which had increased their individual holdings sufficiently enough to meet and exceed the threshold for being a large reporting trader.

As mentioned above, the threshold level in silver for being classified as a large reporting trader (commercial and non-commercial alike) is 150 contracts (750,000 oz of silver). Any trader holding less than that amount is considered a non-reporting trader and is not subject to the detailed disclosures required of large reporting traders, and are, generally, considered smaller traders. Usually, we tend to think of traders in the non-reporting category as holding one or two contracts or perhaps five or ten. But that’s not the case across the wide sweep of non-reporting traders.

You’ll forgive me, but anyone holding 100 contracts of silver (500,000 oz) or say, 140 contracts (700,000 oz) doesn’t strike me as being particularly small – not when a one dollar move amounts to $500,000 or $700,000 and margin requirements exceed $1 million and much more. When you get down to it, is there really all that much of a gulf between a trader holding 140 silver contracts and one holding 150 or 200 contracts? I don’t think so.

Therefore, whereas I first thought that the 29 new long traders in the Other Large Reporting Traders category were brand-new to the world of COMEX silver futures, recognizing the particulars of what determines being a large reporting trader convinces me to conclude that the “new” traders were much more likely to be former non-reporting traders holding less than 150 contracts who increased their holdings above that reporting level.

Moreover, the gradual and consistent manner of the increase in new reporting traders over the course of 5 reporting weeks supports my “upgrading” premise as explaining where the new traders came from. Finally, I must emphasize that the increase in new reporting traders came on a fairly significant and consistent decline in the price of silver of more than two dollars, which strongly suggests that these traders were not increasing their already substantial long positions on the flakey moving average penetrations that motivate the braindead managed money technical funds. The “new” longs obviously perceived value in extremely undervalued silver prices.

I can’t tell you what these new reporting traders will do in the future, other than in speculative terms. But that’s different from analyzing what they have done to date. Clearly, these traders have taken it upon themselves to increase their long silver positions in a manner consistent with the accumulation of an asset they perceive as undervalued. While I can’t know for sure, it doesn’t appear to me that they are looking for small short-term gains, but something much more substantial than that.

One question the recent unusual futures contract long positioning answers is the perennially question of why doesn’t someone step up and buy silver in decent quantities? And buying COMEX futures contracts would be the preferred method if one chose to buy silver on a leveraged-basis (not something I ever recommended) and in the form least disruptive to price. Stated differently, I don’t think that 30 million oz of physical silver could be purchased outright or through the purchase of shares of silver ETFs over five weeks with prices falling by $2. Real physical silver? No. Paper silver on the COMEX? Yes.

I can’t help but believe that the notable increase in buying by the new reporting traders is largely a reaction to the remarkably-bullish developments in the physical silver market and the increasingly obvious deepening physical shortage. While I don’t expect the collusive and crooked COMEX commercials to give up easily on their long-term manipulation and suppression of silver prices, there can be little question the manipulative scam is on its last legs and we have just seen compelling new proof of that in the new buying by the former non-reporting traders who crossed over to large trader reporting status.

Of course, I can’t know what the new Other Large Reporting Traders will do from here, but I am hard-pressed to view what they have done so far as being anything but bullish for the price of silver going forward. I wouldn’t look for much more in the way of big increases in the number of new reporting traders from this point on, but had you asked me that same question a number of weeks back (had I discovered all this back then), I would likely have said that as well (and had been wrong). All I can say now is that you can be sure I’ll continue to monitor and report on any subsequent changes from this point forward. And that it looks like a very big deal – nothing less than another “epiphany” moment of other similar discoveries over the decades.

More than anything else, this sharp increase in the number of new large reporting traders supports and amplifies my idea of an imminent price explosion in silver. To be sure, this appears to be a development highly-unique and specific to silver and not gold or any other market of which I’m aware. Some of the newly-designated large silver traders may sell on a quick silver rally, but not necessarily most or all and some might add to new positions with unrealized profits on any price upswing.

One of the most encouraging signs about the big increase in the number of new long traders and the overall increase of 6000 long contracts in the Other Large Reporting Trader category, is that it wasn’t the collusive and crooked COMEX commercial traders which sold to them. Over the course of the past five reporting weeks, from Dec 19 to Jan 23, the total commercial net short position fell by 14,700 contracts, from 48,800 contracts to 34,100 contracts (mostly due to raptor buying, who’s buying mathematically reduces the total commercial short position).

So, even though it appears to be good news that so many traders previously classified as non-reporting traders stepped up to add to their existing long positions enough to push them into large reporting trader status; it’s even better news that the crooked and collusive COMEX commercials weren’t the counterparties selling. As to who were the sellers, the data make it clear it was primarily the braindead managed money traders, who sold more than 17,500 net contracts over the five reporting weeks in question (including long liquidation and new short selling). This is a profoundly-bullish combination.

In conclusion, it’s hard not to interpret this recent surprising positioning in COMEX silver futures contracts as unabashedly bullish. However, when added to the already white-hot bullish circumstance of a deepening physical silver shortage, the combination is enough to warrant an expectation of an immediate liftoff in silver prices by a preponderance of the evidence. Once again, the only possible explanation for why silver prices haven’t exploded or why we may experience future sharp selloffs is the continued price suppression by what appears to be increasingly trapped and desperate COMEX commercial traders which are short.

Ted Butler

February 1, 2024

www.butlerresearch.com

Miles Franklin’s Andy Schectman explains the gold game in eight minutes

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2024-02-01 20:48 Section: Daily Dispatches

8:51p ET Thursday, February 1, 2024

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

http://www.youtube.com/Andy Schectman

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS

Episode 158

Posted 2nd February 2024

BRICS nations to drag US back into the gold standard? Feat. Ron Branstetter

In this week’s episode of Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined – a popular request – by Ron Branstetter of Ron’s Basement to discuss the accelerating pace of change that silver stackers should expect in the months to come.

The precious metals experts take listeners through the implications of recent manoeuvres of the Global South, questioning whether international conflict can be avoided through leveraging a global gold and silver reevaluation

END

5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES /COCOA

Cocoa prices hit 46 year highs

(zerohedge)

Cocoa Prices Hit 46-Year High As Drought Concerns Threaten West African Crops

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 07:45 AM

Cocoa prices climbed to a 46-year high this week in New York as concerns mount that seasonal Harmattan winds across West Africa could dry cocoa fields and reduce yields for the Ivory Coast’s mid-crop in April. This would pressure global cocoa production even further.

Bloomberg reports the most active cocoa futures jumped as much as 2.2% to $4,961 per ton in New York. Prices are up 126% since Sept. 2022, threatening to raise costs for the world’s top chocolate makers, such as The Hershey Company.

According to Donald Keeney, senior meteorologist at Maxar Technologies Inc., average temperatures across West Africa are 2 degrees Celsius above normal for the next few weeks. He said the region was “a lot drier and warmer than usual for the past month” and will continue this trend, adding that the Harmattan “is certainly a bit stronger than usual this year.”

Ivory Coast is the world’s largest cocoa producer, and lower production has been a major bullish catalyst for soaring cocoa prices.

On Monday, the Ivory Coast government said farmers shipped 1 MMT of cocoa to ports from October 1 to January 28, down 36% from the same period last year.

A week ago, the Ivory Coast cocoa regulator, Le Conseil Cafe-Cacao, halted forward cocoa sales for the 2024/25 season due to sliding cocoa production.

This has also fueled worries that the current level of cocoa production will be unable to restock supplies and prevent a worldwide shortfall of the bean, widely used in candy.

Last month, Jonathan Parkman, the head of agricultural sales at Marex Group, warned: “I don’t think we’ve seen the worst of the situation for consumers.” He means the worst of ‘candyflation‘ has yet to be realized.

END

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

end

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 7.1775

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1907

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 40.59 PTS OR 1.46%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 32.65 PTS OR 0.21%

2. Nikkei closed UP 146.56 PTS OR 0.41%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 102.82 EURO RISES TO 1.0882 UP 6 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:FALLS TO. +.661 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 146.52/JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP// OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.1530***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.709** /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.079…**

3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.191

3j Gold at $2054.90 silver at: 23.16 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 46 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 90.93//

3m oil into the 74 dollar handle for WTI and 78 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 146,52// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.661% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8558 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9314 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.874 UP 1 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.104 UP 0 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.231 UP 4 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.46…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 4 BASIS PTS AT 3.827

end

2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge

Futures Soar After Tech Earnings Blowout, Putting S&P On Track For Gains In 13 Of Past 14 Weeks

BY TYLER DURDEN

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 07:56 AM

US futures and global markets rallied on Friday after tech megacaps Meta and Amazon.com posted blowout earnings (even as Apple dropped on a plunge in China sales and disappointing guidance) and as investors awaited a jobs report expected to support the case for interest-rate cuts. As of 7:30am, S&P 500 futures rose 0.7% while the Nasdaq 100 rose 1% after the indexes advanced by more than 1% Thursday. Rates were flat with 10Y yields unchanged around 3.88% while the dollar dropped and oil extended losses. All eyes will be on today’s jobs report; we also get the latest Factory Orders, Durables Goods and Michigan sentiment (and inflation outlook) prints.

The sharp gains in the past two days meant that the S&P is once again on track for aweekly gain, which will make it 13 increases in the past 14 weeks!

In premarket trading, Meta soared 17% and Amazon rallied 7.1% after the tech behemoths smashed quarterly profit expectations. The pair’s results boosted social media and e-commerce peers, with Snap up 6.8% and Shopify rising 4.8%. Apple slipped after its earnings showed weakness in China. Big Oil added to the earnings buzz Friday, with Chevron and Exxon Mobil shares rising after both beat profit expectations. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Atlassian (TEAM US) shares fell 8.6% as analysts said the application software company’s cloud metrics came in short of expectations.
Amazon (AMZN) shares jumped 6.7% after fourth-quarter results beat expectations and the company’s outlook for operating income surpassed estimates. Analysts cited operating income and the company’s Amazon Web Services (AWS) businesses as highlights.
Apple (AAPL US) shares fell 2.7% after weakness out of the greater China region overshadowed strong results in most product categories. Analysts expect that competition in China will intensify.
Intel (INTC US) shares fell 1.2% following a Wall Street Journal report that the chipmaker is delaying a $20 billion chip facility planned for Ohio, sparking worries over its capital expenditure plans.
Meta Platforms (META US) jumps 18% after the Facebook parent reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as strong. It also introduced its first ever dividend.
Skechers (SKX US) shares slid 10% after the footwear company issued full-year sales and earnings per share guidance that trailed consensus estimates.
Solo Brands (DTC US) fell 2.5% as JPMorgan double-downgrades the stock to its only underweight rating, citing growing concerns around shifts in the outdoor product retailer’s business model since its IPO.

After a torrid week there is one more major market event: Friday’s US jobs report is expected to show a slower hiring pace in 2023 after figures out Thursday showed rising jobless claims, and following annual revisions, indicating the labor market was softer than realized (full preview is here). Wall Street expects 185K payroll gains with a wide range of forecast between 120K and 300K. Bloomberg economists see the unemployment rate edging up to 3.8%, from 3.7% in December.

Investors will parse monthly US jobs figures due later for confirmation of further cooling in the labor market that might encourage policy easing by the Federal Reserve.

“Any move closer to 4% could see markets changing bets on when Fed cuts could begin,” economists at Rand Merchant Bank in Johannesburg said in a note to clients.

Investors will also continue to closely track developments around smaller banks as an index for the sector heads for its worst week since the fallout from the banking crisis last May. New York Community Bancorp has plunged 45% since shocking investors Wednesday by reducing its dividend, posting a quarterly loss and ramping up loan-loss provisions for exposure to commercial real estate.

Meanwhile, as investors rush into technology stocks, Bank of America strategists said they see similarities with the bubble of 1999, with markets assuming that the economy will perform strongly, despite tighter monetary policy. While falling yields were pushing the Nasdaq higher in the fourth quarter, the script has now flipped to both rising over the past four weeks. This price action would typically only occur after a recession, such as in 2009 or the dot-com bubble around the turn of the century, BofA strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote on a note. Hartnett’s view on the rising dominance of tech stocks resembles a warning by JPMorgan strategists earlier this week that the US equity market is increasingly drawing similarities with the dot-com bubble.

European stocks are also higher, led by real estate and auto names. The Stoxx 600 is on course for back-to-back weekly gains for the first time this year, with most subgroups on the regional benchmark notching gains, with the real estate and automotive subindexes the biggest risers, while the energy sector the biggest laggard. Mercedes-Benz Group AG shares rose as much as 3.3% and Danske Bank climbed 6.7%. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

Danske Bank shares rise as much as 6.5%, the most in three months, after reporting results, with Jefferies saying capital distributions are the “key positive” element
Vallourec climbs as much as 9.6% after French tube-maker reported “good” preliminary fourth-quarter Ebitda that beat estimates, and will likely also beat 2023 expectations, Oddo says
Zalando rises as much as 5.7% after Morgan Stnaley raised its rating on the European fashion platform to overweight, saying it will be a key online volume share winner as inflation slows
OCI jumps to highest since April after the stock was raised to buy by Berenberg, which flags “lots of cash, lots of options” as fertilizer maker is about to unlock $6.1b of divestment proceeds
SAP gains as much as 2.2% to a record high after Jefferies upgraded the software firm to buy, saying there is now “no reason to question growth” given elevated cloud revenue in its pipeline
Mercedes rises as much as 3.3% after reporting preliminary industrial free cash flow for the full year that beat the average analyst estimate, with Deutsche Bank seeing upside potential
Delivery Hero falls as much as 13% to record lows after Malaysian newspaper New Straits Times reported that the food delivery firm’s talks to sell its Southeast Asia business to Grab collapsed
Electrolux falls as much as 6.8% after the Swedish home appliances firm flagged a gloomy outlook for the first half of 2024, according to Citi. It also failed to pay a dividend last year
Lem shares fall as much as 8.2%, most since July 2022, after the Swiss electrical component manufacturer’s results missed estimates and it cut its sale guidance
YouGov falls as much as 2.5%, dropping from a one-month high hit yesterday, after suffering a slow start to the financial year because of the challenging macro-economic environment
Close Brothers falls as much as 5% as RBC cuts its recommendation on the UK bank to sector perform as it expects shares to be held back by FCA reviews into motor loans and premium finance

Earlier in the session, the picture was more mixed in Asia, where key Chinese benchmarks pared steep declines in a session marked by wild swings. A broader gauge of the region’s stocks climbed 0.7% with South Korean shares leading the charge. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1%, with Tencent among the biggest contributors to the gauge’s gain after China approved a slew of online games. South Korea’s benchmark Kospi headed for its best week since November 2022, boosted by automakers and other holding firms amid a push by authorities for better valuations.

Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were both initially boosted with outperformance in automakers after their January delivery updates, while tech names were supported after China’s NPPA approved 32 imported online games. However, stocks then gradually reversed course after the PBoC continued to drain liquidity despite next week’s Lunar New Year holiday. Later in the session Chinese stocks rebounded shortly after the Shanghai Composite fell to fresh multi-year lows under 2,700; with some highlighting increased capital flows from Hong Kong via Stock Connect
Nikkei 225 gained with headlines dominated by another busy day of earnings results, while Aozora Bank suffered another double-digit drop after it recently flagged losses linked to US commercial property loans.
ASX 200 printed fresh all-time highs with real estate and tech front running the gains amid softer yields.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1% while the Australian dollar tops the G-10 FX leaderboard, rising 0.5% versus the greenback. The yen is among the weakest, dropping 0.2%.

AUD/USD rose as much as 0.5% to 0.6603 as the Australian dollar led G-10 gains against the dollar on bolstered risk appetite; Japanese yen led G-10 losses
GBP/USD rose as much as 0.2% to 1.2768, the highest level in over a week, as markets bet on the BOE lagging other major central banks in cutting rates; Gilts underperformed Treasuries and EGBs with front-end yields climbing 6-8bps

In rates, Treasuries were unchanged with the curve flatter, pushing 2s10s and 5s30s spreads beyond Thursday’s lows. The move was led by pronounced bear-flattening of gilts curve, a laggard among core European rates. Front-end yields cheaper by around 3bp with long-end slightly richer on the day, leaving 2s10s, 5s30s spreads flatter by 2.5bp and 2bp. Two-year yields rose 2bps to 4.22%, while 10-year yields were little changed around 3.88%, with bunds and gilts lagging by 1.5bp and 6bp in the sector. Dollar issuance slate includes KDB 3Y/5Y; just one deal was done Thursday, bringing weekly volume to just over $20b, in line with $20b to $25b expected; dealers are calling for about $150 billion of new supply in February.

In commodities, oil headed for the biggest weekly loss since early November as negotiations advance for an agreement to pause the Israel-Hamas war in what could be a crucial step toward ending the conflict; oil prices advanced, with WTI rising 0.7% to trade near $74.30, after the contracts settled lower by $2/bbl for WTI and USD 1.85/bbl for Brent after mixed reporting regarding a Gaza ceasefire yesterday; currently Brent holds below the $79.50/bbl. Gold headed for its largest weekly increase since the start of December as lower Treasury yields offered support for the metal, amid the concerns over US regional banks.

Looking to today’s calendar, economic data includes January jobs report (8:30am), January final University of Michigan sentiment and December factory orders (10am). Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will appear on CBS News’s 60 Minutes this Sunday and will discuss inflation risks, expected rate cuts and the banking system, among other topics, the network said; no Fed members are scheduled to speak Friday while other central bank speakers include ECB’s Centeno and BoE’s Pill. Finally, earnings releases include ExxonMobil, Chevron and Aon.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 4,954.25
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 486.32
MXAP up 0.7% to 167.35
MXAPJ up 1.2% to 510.00
Nikkei up 0.4% to 36,158.02
Topix up 0.2% to 2,539.68
Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 15,533.56
Shanghai Composite down 1.5% to 2,730.15
Sensex up 0.6% to 72,074.30
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.5% to 7,699.40
Kospi up 2.9% to 2,615.31
German 10Y yield up 2 bps at 2.17%
Euro up 0.2% to $1.0894
Brent Futures up 0.4% to $79.03/bbl
Gold spot down 0.0% to $2,054.65
US Dollar Index down 0.12% to 102.93

Top Overnight News

Stocks posted broad gains Friday after robust earnings from technology giants and as investors looked forward to a US jobs report expected to show further cooling in the labor market in a boost for hopes of interest-rate cuts.
Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. spent 2023 cutting costs and re-focusing their businesses. It was a strategy that upended the lives of displaced tech workers in Seattle and Silicon Valley, but appears to have paid off handsomely for investors who are likely to continue reaping benefits.
A monthly US jobs report due Friday will probably show a slower pace of hiring in 2023 following annual revisions, according to Bloomberg Economics.
A sense of panic gripped Chinese investors on Friday as shares swung sharply in the final hours of trading before closing at a five-year low.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will appear on CBS News’s 60 Minutes this Sunday and will discuss inflation risks, expected rate cuts and the banking system, among other topics, the network said.
Oil headed for the biggest weekly loss since early November as negotiations advance for an agreement to pause the Israel-Hamas war in what could be a crucial step toward ending the conflict.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly took impetus from the gains on Wall St where stocks were underpinned amid a softer yield environment and with US equity futures boosted following the big tech earnings. ASX 200 printed fresh all-time highs with real estate and tech front running the gains amid softer yields. Nikkei 225 gained with headlines dominated by another busy day of earnings results, while Aozora Bank suffered another double-digit drop after it recently flagged losses linked to US commercial property loans. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were both initially boosted with outperformance in automakers after their January delivery updates, while tech names were supported after China’s NPPA approved 32 imported online games. However, stocks then gradually reversed course after the PBoC continued to drain liquidity despite next week’s Lunar New Year holiday. Later in the session Chinese stocks rebounded shortly after the Shanghai Composite fell to fresh multi-year lows under 2,700; with some highlighting increased capital flows from Hong Kong via Stock Connect

Top Asian News

China National Press and Publication Administration approved 32 imported online games, according to Reuters.
China urges state Cos to step up equity investments in new equity firms, via Bloomberg
IMF says China growth is projected to slow to 4.6% in 2024 amid the ongoing weakness in the property sector and subdued external demand. Inflation expected to increase gradually to 1.3% in 2024.

European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.5%), are on a firmer footing, taking impetus from gains in Wall Street and further optimism also stemming from blockbuster earnings from Amazon (+6% pre-market) and Meta (+16.7% pre-market). European sectors are mostly firmer; Autos takes the top spot benefitting from outperformance within the sector in APAC trade and after a positive update from Mercedes-Benz. Energy is the major laggard, dragged down by weaker crude prices following mixed reporting on a ceasefire in Gaza. US equity futures (ES +0.5%, NQ +1.1%, RTY U/C) are firmer, with clear outperformance in the NQ, being led higher by significant strength in Amazon (+6.7%) and Meta (+16.7%) post-earnings; though, Apple is softer by over 2%.

Top European News

Citi/YouGov UK Inflation Expectations: 12-month 3.9% (prev. 3.5%), 5-10yrs 3.6% (prev. 3.4%). Short-run expectations increased amid an increase in shipping disruption.
Riksbank comment on the Swedish National Audit Office’s report: Riksbank recognises that circumstances may arise in the future, in which purchases of securities may be an appropriate way to influence inflation. Further analysis is required.
German Engineering Orders in December -6% Y/Y (Domestic -13%, Foreign -3%), according to VDMA

Earnings

Amazon.com (AMZN) – Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 1.00 (exp. 0.80), Revenue 169.96bln (exp. 166.21bln).SALES BREAKDOWN:Online stores 70.54bln (exp. 68.91bln). Physical Stores 5.15bln (exp. 5.23bln). Third-Party Seller Services 43.56bln (exp. 41.96bln). AWS 24.20bln (exp. 24.22bln). GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS: North America 105.51bln (exp. 102.88bln). International 40.24bln (exp. 38.96bln). KEY METRICS: Third-party seller services net sales excluding F/X +19% (exp. +15.9%). AWS net sales excluding F/X +13% (exp. +11.8%). Operating income 13.21bln (exp. 10.49bln). Operating margin 7.8% (exp. 6.17%). North America operating margin +6.1% (exp. +4.12%). International operating margin -1% (exp. -1.27%). Fulfillment expense 26.10bln (exp. 25.2bln). GUIDANCE: Q1 net sales view 138.0-143.5bln (exp. 142.01bln). Q1 operating income view 8-12bln (exp. 9.1bln). CFO said improved delivery speeds have led to increased purchase frequency by customers across major geographies, and there are no immediate plans for dividend. (Amazon/Newswires) Shares rose 7.1% after-market. Index weightings: SPX (3.5%), NDX (4.9%). Shares up 6.1% pre-market
Meta Platforms Inc (META) – Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 5.33 (exp. 4.96), Revenue 40.11bln (exp. 39.17bln); authorised 50bln increase to share buyback programme and declared cash quarterly dividend of 0.50/shr. KEY METRICS: Advertising revenue 38.71bln (exp. 38.12bln). Facebook DAUs 2.11bln (exp. 2.07bln). Facebook MAUs 3.07bbln (exp. 3.06bln). Ad impressions +21% (exp. +24.6%). Average Family service users per day 3.19bln (exp. 3.11bln). Average Family service users per month 3.98bln (exp. 3.93bln). GUIDANCE: Q1 revenue view 34.5-37bln (exp. 33.34bln). Meta (META) noted the FTC is seeking to substantially modify consent order on Meta and if contesting is unsuccessful, this could impose additional restrictions on its ability to operate and would adversely impact its business. CEO said the Co. is getting ready to roll out AI services more widely in coming months, adds Threads now has more people using it daily than initial launch and Metaverse focus this year is going to be growing mobile version of Horizon. CFO said Co. will discontinue reporting of Facebook monthly and daily active users, Co. expects to maintain an active share repurchase program. (Meta/Newswires) Shares rose 15.2% after-market. Index weightings: SPX (2.2%), NDX (4.2%). Shares up 16.8% pre-market
Apple Inc (AAPL) – Q1 2024 (USD): EPS 2.18 (exp. 2.10), Revenue 119.58bln (exp. 117.91bln). Greater China revenue 20.82bln (exp. 23.5bln). REVENUE BREAKDOWN: Products 96.46bln (exp. 95.14bln).iPhone 69.70bln (exp. 68.55bln). Mac 7.78bln (exp. 7.9bln). iPad 7.02bln (exp. 7.06bln). Wearables, home and accessories 11.95bln (exp. 12.02bln). Service 23.12bln (exp. 23.37bln). KEY METRICS: Total operating expenses 14.48bln (exp. 14.62bln). Gross margin 54.86bln (exp. 53.56bln). Cash and cash equivalents 40.76bln (exp. 38.81bln). Apple expects March quarter total revenue and iPhone revenue to be similar to the previous year after accounting for inventory replenishment. Expects gross margins between 46%-47% for fiscal Q2. Expects operating expenses of USD 14.3bln-14.5bln in fiscal Q2. Expects services business to show double-digit growth similar to the December quarter in fiscal Q2. CEO Cook said the Co. will make announcements this year on new AI features. CEO Cook added that FX was a headwind for China sales, and the decline in China sales was in part on a stronger USD. (Apple/Newswires) Shares fell 2.9% after-market. Index weightings: SPX (6.6%), NDX (8.7%), DJIA (3.2%) Shares down 2.5% pre-market
Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP) – Q3 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.08 (exp. 1.04), Revenue 1.77bln (exp. 1.77bln). GUIDANCE: Q4 adj. EPS view 0.46-0.68 (exp. 0.91). Q4 revenue view 1.225-1.425bln (exp. 1.66bln). COMMENTARY: Taking steps to limit discretionary spending and tightly manage inventory levels during downcycle. Cautious about demand in near term given weak macro environment and customers’ ongoing actions to reduce inventory. (Newswires) Shares down 3.1% pre-market
TomTom (TOM2 NA) – Q4 (EUR): Revenue 143mln (exp. 142mln), Net -11.6mln (exp. -23mln), EBIT -10.4mln (exp. -29mln). FY24 Outlook: Revenue 570-610mln (exp. 600mln). Shares up 9.2% in European trade / Garmin shares up 0.7% in pre-market trade.

DXY has pivoted around the 103.00 mark compared to levels closer to 103.50 in recent sessions as yield-driven selling in USD saw the index hit a trough of 102.91. In what has been a contained few weeks of trade for the USD, a soft NFP could see a test of the Jan 24th low at 102.77.
EUR remains supported by recent USD selling but unable to muster a test of 1.09; last breached on Jan 25th at 1.0901.
JPY is the only major currency softer vs. the USD as the JPY’s recent tepid recovery vs. the dollar pauses for breath. Ultimately, the pair remains at the whim of relative Fed/BoJ expectations. Currently sits at the 21DMA and within yesterday’s 145.89-147.11 range.
AUD attempting to recoup recent lost ground vs. the USD which saw the pair hit a trough of 0.6508 yesterday.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1006 vs exp. 7.1655 (prev. 7.1049).

Fixed Income

USTs are softer and pivoting Wednesday’s 112-20+ peak ahead of NFP, which is expected to print at 180k (prev. 216k).
Bunds are weaker by around 60 ticks but still over 100 ticks from the week’s 134.37 trough; the German 10yr yield has recovered back to 2.18% but is still set to close the week out lower.
Gilts are the relative underperformer but similarly well within WTD 98.56-100.62 parameters with drivers thin post-BoE though we await commentary from Chief Economist Pill.
Italian Treasury says foreign investors bought 70% of new 15yr BTP syndicated bond

Commodities

Choppy/contained across the crude complex this morning ahead of US jobs data, and after the contracts settled lower by USD 2.03/bbl for WTI and USD 1.85/bbl for Brent after mixed reporting regarding a Gaza ceasefire yesterday; currently Brent holds below the USD 79.50/bbl.
Precious metals are trading horizontal in the run-up to the US jobs report in an otherwise quiet European morning; whilst base metals are mixed with early China-induced weakness trimmed as the USD edges lower; XAU holds above USD 2050/oz and within a tight range.
Iraqi oil exports averaged 3.3mln BPD in Jan (prev. 3.5mln in Dec); Average price USD 77.536/bbl (prev. USD 76.96/bbl in Dec)

Geopolitics

Hamas said they are still in the stage of consultation between internal and foreign leaders on the exchange deal, while it received the Paris truce proposal but has not given a response to any parties and it is still being studied. Furthermore, it cannot say the current stage of negotiations is zero, but also cannot say they have reached an agreement.
An Iranian revolutionary guard advisor killed in Israeli strike on Damascus, Syria, via semi-official Iranian News site..
Iraq’s pro-Iran Al-Nujaba movement vows to keep up attacks on US troops, according to AFP
North Korea fired several cruise missiles off its west coast, according to South Korea.

US Event Calendar

08:30: Jan. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 185,000, prior 216,000
- Jan. Change in Private Payrolls, est. 170,000, prior 164,000
- Jan. Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 3,000, prior 6,000
- Jan. Unemployment Rate, est. 3.8%, prior 3.7%
- Jan. Underemployment Rate, prior 7.1%
- Jan. Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.6%, prior 62.5%
- Jan. Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.3, prior 34.3
- Jan. Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 4.1%, prior 4.1%
- Jan. Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
10:00: Dec. Durable Goods Orders, est. 0%, prior 0%
- Dec. Durables-Less Transportation, est. 0.6%, prior 0.6%
- Dec. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.1%
- Dec. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.3%
10:00: Dec. Factory Orders, est. 0.2%, prior 2.6%
- Dec. Factory Orders Ex Trans, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
10:00: Jan. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 83.5, prior 83.3
- Jan. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 78.9, prior 78.8
- Jan. U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 76.0, prior 75.9
- Jan. U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 2.8%, prior 2.8%
- Jan. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to payrolls Friday and if you want a bit of light relief as we draw towards the close of a busy week then note that we have a fancy dress quiz night for parents at my kids’ school tomorrow night and I’m going as Dame Edna Everage. My wife is going to have a field day turning me into her. Why I agreed to this I don’t know and why I’m telling you I don’t know either so please don’t tell anyone. I’m actually hoping some of the younger parents know who she was and don’t just think that’s my normal Saturday night attire.

Onto more weighty matters, our recent “ Everything points to a soft landing except… .. history ” pack, suggested that the current US data points to a soft landing (with more evidence yesterday as we’ll see below). However, history cautions that the lags from a hiking cycle are long and variable and regularly have a substantial sting in their tail. Often these come from an unforeseen event. Clearly in this cycle, the Regional Bank shock was dealt with aggressively by the Fed last year. However this was mainly helping them out with high quality assets (e.g. treasuries and MBS) that had been (and still are) marked down. Although the BTFP ends in March, the market generally would expect the Fed to do something similar if the need arose and therefore are less likely to force them to. However if the next round of problems covered CRE then could the Fed really intervene as quickly or as easily given a more challenging moral hazard issue? Underwater CRE which could be impaired is a very different proposition to underwater Treasuries.

We’re clearly some way from that at the moment but it’s worth highlighting that the latest attack on US regional banks is more for fear of potential credit losses than the mark to market losses of high quality securities of last year, which could be more easily mitigated via liquidity measures. On a related theme, it will be interesting to see the Fed’s SLOOS on Monday to see whether banks have continued to loosen conditions relative to what are still very tight lending standards to the wider economy and CRE.

Notwithstanding a second day of US Regional Bank losses (-2.28%), the S&P 500 roared back last night to close +1.25%, reversing most of Wednesday’s -1.61% decline. The market shrugged off the continued concerns over New York Community Bancorp, which fell a further -11.1% (-44.6% over 2-days) after news the previous evening that Moody’s had placed their credit ratings on review for a downgrade. The S&P 500 bank index was down -1.38% (-3.34% over 2-days). But overall, equities seemed to respond to the data whereas the bond market saw a flight to quality as 10yr US yields fell -3.2bps to 3.88%. Overnight in Japan it’s been a similar story, with Aozora Bank currently the worst performer in the Nikkei with a further -15.55% decline, but the Nikkei as a whole is still up +0.70%. Meanwhile, March Fed Funds futures are pricing in a 38% chance of a cut this morning, up from 35% after the FOMC influenced close on Wednesday.

As all that was going on, we then heard from Apple, Amazon and Meta after the close. All three beat earnings estimates, with a mixed but overall positive reaction in extended trading. Meta saw a stunning gain (of c. 15%) after hours, as its revenue guidance for Q1 came in clearly above analysts’ expectations, and the company announced additional share buybacks and its first ever dividend. Amazon gained 7%, also posting a strong profit outlook for Q1. This is despite its sales guidance for Q1 actually coming in a touch below estimates, and investors appeared to reward both companies for their cost control efforts. By contrast, Apple’s shares were down close to 3% in after-hours trading, with a deepening sales slump in China taking the shine off what was otherwise a modest beat. Prior to the results, the Magnificent Seven outperformed yesterday, gaining +1.59%. This morning, NASDAQ 100 futures are trading up +0.99%, and those on the S&P 500 are up +0.54%.

Talking of Apple, they are due to release their Vision Pro headset today. We conducted a survey of over 3,300 consumers to assess their perceptions and readiness for AR, VR, and the metaverse which should give you an idea of how ready consumers are for the next round of technology to be launched from the Magnificent Seven. See the full chartbook on the Metaverse, AR, & VR just published by Marion Laboure and Cassidy Ainsworth Grace here.

Looking forward now, the main highlight today will be the US jobs report for January, which will be one of the first pieces of hard data that covers 2024. Our US economists are looking for a +200k (consensus +185k) rise in nonfarm payrolls, and for unemployment to rise a tenth to 3.8% (in line with consensus). Remember as well that this report is set to see more substantial revisions than usual, since it’s the annual benchmark revision that can affect the numbers throughout the entirety of 2023, and not just the previous two months. It’ll also be an important print when it comes to the timing of rate cuts from the Fed, with March still in the balance regardless of what Powell said 36 hours ago.

Before the jobs report, there was some good news from the ISM manufacturing print, which rose to a 15-month high of 49.1 (vs. 47.2 expected). And on top of that, growth in nonfarm productivity surpassed expectations in Q4, coming in at an annualised rate of +3.2% (vs. +2.5% expected). So that added to the sense that a soft landing was increasingly likely, and it meant the Atlanta Fed’s latest GDPNow estimate for Q1 now stands at an annualised growth rate of 4.2%. The main point of weakness was in the weekly initial jobless claims, which rose to 224k (vs. 212k expected) in the week ending January 27, whilst continuing claims were up to 1.898m (vs. 1.839m expected) in the week ending January 20, the second highest reading since November 2021.

Over in the Euro Area, the main news came on the inflation side, as the flash CPI release for January came in a bit higher than the consensus had expected. That showed headline CPI only fell by a tenth to +2.8% (vs. +2.7% expected), and core CPI also fell a tenth to +3.3% (vs. +3.2% expected). To be fair, that’s the lowest core inflation has been since March 2022, but the slower decline has added to questions about how soon the ECB will actually be able to cut rates. At the same time, we also heard that the Euro Area unemployment rate had remained at 6.4% in December, matching its joint-lowest since the single currency’s formation. These releases saw pricing of a March cut by the ECB decline from 23% to 17%, and overnight it’s down to 16%.

Here in the UK, the Bank of England announced their latest policy decision yesterday, where they left rates unchanged as expected. There were a few elements of ongoing hawkishness in the decision. In particular, the BoE’s latest inflation forecasts showed inflation above target during H2 2024 and 2025, based on market rate expectations. So the implication was that the amount of cuts priced in would keep inflation too high in the years ahead. Moreover, even as 6 of the 9 committee members voted to hold rates, 2 preferred another 25bp hike, whilst 1 voted for a 25bp cut. BoE Governor Bailey also said that they “need to see more evidence that inflation is set to fall all the way to the 2% target, and stay there, before we can lower interest rates”.

But as with the Fed the previous day, there was a growing sense of a gradual shift towards considering rate cuts. Notably, the summary dropped the earlier explicit tightening bias, instead saying that the “MPC remained prepared to adjust monetary policy as warranted “ and adding that it “will keep under review for how long Bank Rate should be maintained at its current level.” In the press conference, Governor Bailey noted that the MPC “won’t leave Bank Rate on hold any longer than we need to”. Markets dialled back the chance of a cut by May, which fell from 77% to 62% by the close, but there was little change in end-24 pricing with over 110bps of cuts priced by the December meeting. Our UK economist continues to see the first rate cut coming in May – see his full reaction here.

When it came to markets in Europe, equities caught up with the post-Fed selloff, and the STOXX 600 (-0.37%) ended its run of 6 consecutive daily gains. Yields also moved lower, although given the CPI print, the declines weren’t as big as the US, with those on 10 yr bunds (-2.0bps), OATs (-0.5bps) and BTPs (-0.5bps) seeing smaller moves. Gilts outperformed, with the 10yr yield down -4.8bps.

Overnight in Asia, there’s been a mixed performance for equities. On the one hand, the KOSPI (+2.76%) has surged this morning, which came as investors expected reforms to the South Korean stock market, which the finance minister announced the previous day. Moreover, the January CPI data surprised on the downside in South Korea, with headline inflation down to +2.8% (vs. +2.9% expected). By contrast, Chinese equities have seen further losses, with the CSI 300 (-0.98%) currently on track to close at a 5-year low, whilst the Shanghai Comp is down -1.25%. Otherwise, the Hang Seng (+0.16%) has posted a modest gain, and the Nikkei is up +0.70%, despite the performance from Aozora Bank (-15.55%).

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US jobs report for January. Other US releases include factory orders for December, and the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for January. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Centeno and the BoE’s Pill. Finally, earnings releases include ExxonMobil and Aon.

2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

Equities firmer, with outperformance in the NQ led by META (+16%) and AMZN (+6%); US NFP due – Newsquawk US Market Open

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 06:02 AM

European equities are firmer taking impetus from gains on Wall Street; US equity futures are in the green, outperformance in the NQ post-earnings from Amazon (+6%) and Meta (+16.7%).
Dollar is around flat awaiting impetus from US NFP; Aussie outperforms recouping the prior day’s downside.
Bonds are softer giving back recent advances as attention turns to key US data
Crude is firmer and finds some reprieve after hefty losses in the prior session; Gold stands pat alongside a flat Dollar
Looking ahead, US NFP, Durable Goods, UoM, Earnings from Regeneron, Gilead, Exxon, Chevron, Aon & Abbvie.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.5%), are on a firmer footing, taking impetus from gains in Wall Street and further optimism also stemming from blockbuster earnings from Amazon (+6% pre-market) and Meta (+16.7% pre-market).
European sectors are mostly firmer; Autos takes the top spot benefitting from outperformance within the sector in APAC trade and after a positive update from Mercedes-Benz. Energy is the major laggard, dragged down by weaker crude prices following mixed reporting on a ceasefire in Gaza.
US equity futures (ES +0.5%, NQ +1.1%, RTY U/C) are firmer, with clear outperformance in the NQ, being led higher by significant strength in Amazon (+6.7%) and Meta (+16.7%) post-earnings; though, Apple is softer by over 2%.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings from Danske Bank, Caixabank & more.
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FX

DXY has pivoted around the 103.00 mark compared to levels closer to 103.50 in recent sessions as yield-driven selling in USD saw the index hit a trough of 102.91. In what has been a contained few weeks of trade for the USD, a soft NFP could see a test of the Jan 24th low at 102.77.
EUR remains supported by recent USD selling but unable to muster a test of 1.09; last breached on Jan 25th at 1.0901.
JPY is the only major currency softer vs. the USD as the JPY’s recent tepid recovery vs. the dollar pauses for breath. Ultimately, the pair remains at the whim of relative Fed/BoJ expectations. Currently sits at the 21DMA and within yesterday’s 145.89-147.11 range.
AUD attempting to recoup recent lost ground vs. the USD which saw the pair hit a trough of 0.6508 yesterday.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1006 vs exp. 7.1655 (prev. 7.1049).
Click here for more details.
Click here for the Option Expires for the NY Cut.

FIXED INCOME

USTs are softer and pivoting Wednesday’s 112-20+ peak ahead of NFP, which is expected to print at 180k (prev. 216k).
Bunds are weaker by around 60 ticks but still over 100 ticks from the week’s 134.37 trough; the German 10yr yield has recovered back to 2.18% but is still set to close the week out lower.
Gilts are the relative underperformer but similarly well within WTD 98.56-100.62 parameters with drivers thin post-BoE though we await commentary from Chief Economist Pill.
Italian Treasury says foreign investors bought 70% of new 15yr BTP syndicated bond
Click here for more details.

COMMODITIES

Choppy/contained across the crude complex this morning ahead of US jobs data, and after the contracts settled lower by USD 2.03/bbl for WTI and USD 1.85/bbl for Brent after mixed reporting regarding a Gaza ceasefire yesterday; currently Brent holds below the USD 79.50/bbl.
Precious metals are trading horizontal in the run-up to the US jobs report in an otherwise quiet European morning; whilst base metals are mixed with early China-induced weakness trimmed as the USD edges lower; XAU holds above USD 2050/oz and within a tight range.
Iraqi oil exports averaged 3.3mln BPD in Jan (prev. 3.5mln in Dec); Average price USD 77.536/bbl (prev. USD 76.96/bbl in Dec)
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NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

Citi/YouGov UK Inflation Expectations: 12-month 3.9% (prev. 3.5%), 5-10yrs 3.6% (prev. 3.4%). Short-run expectations increased amid an increase in shipping disruption.
Riksbank comment on the Swedish National Audit Office’s report: Riksbank recognises that circumstances may arise in the future, in which purchases of securities may be an appropriate way to influence inflation. Further analysis is required.
German Engineering Orders in December -6% Y/Y (Domestic -13%, Foreign -3%), according to VDMA

DATA RECAP

French Industrial Output MM (Dec) 1.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.5%)
French Budget Balance (Dec) -173.26B (Prev. -197.97B)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

Fed Chair Powell will be interviewed on 60 Minutes this Sunday which will be aired at 19:00EST/00:00GMT.

EARNINGS

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) – Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 1.00 (exp. 0.80), Revenue 169.96bln (exp. 166.21bln).SALES BREAKDOWN:Online stores 70.54bln (exp. 68.91bln). Physical Stores 5.15bln (exp. 5.23bln). Third-Party Seller Services 43.56bln (exp. 41.96bln). AWS 24.20bln (exp. 24.22bln). GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS: North America 105.51bln (exp. 102.88bln). International 40.24bln (exp. 38.96bln). KEY METRICS: Third-party seller services net sales excluding F/X +19% (exp. +15.9%). AWS net sales excluding F/X +13% (exp. +11.8%). Operating income 13.21bln (exp. 10.49bln). Operating margin 7.8% (exp. 6.17%). North America operating margin +6.1% (exp. +4.12%). International operating margin -1% (exp. -1.27%). Fulfillment expense 26.10bln (exp. 25.2bln). GUIDANCE: Q1 net sales view 138.0-143.5bln (exp. 142.01bln). Q1 operating income view 8-12bln (exp. 9.1bln). CFO said improved delivery speeds have led to increased purchase frequency by customers across major geographies, and there are no immediate plans for dividend. (Amazon/Newswires) Shares rose 7.1% after-market. Index weightings: SPX (3.5%), NDX (4.9%). Shares up 6.1% pre-market
Meta Platforms Inc (META) – Q4 2023 (USD): EPS 5.33 (exp. 4.96), Revenue 40.11bln (exp. 39.17bln); authorised 50bln increase to share buyback programme and declared cash quarterly dividend of 0.50/shr. KEY METRICS: Advertising revenue 38.71bln (exp. 38.12bln). Facebook DAUs 2.11bln (exp. 2.07bln). Facebook MAUs 3.07bbln (exp. 3.06bln). Ad impressions +21% (exp. +24.6%). Average Family service users per day 3.19bln (exp. 3.11bln). Average Family service users per month 3.98bln (exp. 3.93bln). GUIDANCE: Q1 revenue view 34.5-37bln (exp. 33.34bln). Meta (META) noted the FTC is seeking to substantially modify consent order on Meta and if contesting is unsuccessful, this could impose additional restrictions on its ability to operate and would adversely impact its business. CEO said the Co. is getting ready to roll out AI services more widely in coming months, adds Threads now has more people using it daily than initial launch and Metaverse focus this year is going to be growing mobile version of Horizon. CFO said Co. will discontinue reporting of Facebook monthly and daily active users, Co. expects to maintain an active share repurchase program. (Meta/Newswires) Shares rose 15.2% after-market. Index weightings: SPX (2.2%), NDX (4.2%). Shares up 16.8% pre-market
Apple Inc (AAPL) – Q1 2024 (USD): EPS 2.18 (exp. 2.10), Revenue 119.58bln (exp. 117.91bln). Greater China revenue 20.82bln (exp. 23.5bln). REVENUE BREAKDOWN: Products 96.46bln (exp. 95.14bln).iPhone 69.70bln (exp. 68.55bln). Mac 7.78bln (exp. 7.9bln). iPad 7.02bln (exp. 7.06bln). Wearables, home and accessories 11.95bln (exp. 12.02bln). Service 23.12bln (exp. 23.37bln). KEY METRICS: Total operating expenses 14.48bln (exp. 14.62bln). Gross margin 54.86bln (exp. 53.56bln). Cash and cash equivalents 40.76bln (exp. 38.81bln). Apple expects March quarter total revenue and iPhone revenue to be similar to the previous year after accounting for inventory replenishment. Expects gross margins between 46%-47% for fiscal Q2. Expects operating expenses of USD 14.3bln-14.5bln in fiscal Q2. Expects services business to show double-digit growth similar to the December quarter in fiscal Q2. CEO Cook said the Co. will make announcements this year on new AI features. CEO Cook added that FX was a headwind for China sales, and the decline in China sales was in part on a stronger USD. (Apple/Newswires) Shares fell 2.9% after-market. Index weightings: SPX (6.6%), NDX (8.7%), DJIA (3.2%) Shares down 2.5% pre-market
Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP) – Q3 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.08 (exp. 1.04), Revenue 1.77bln (exp. 1.77bln). GUIDANCE: Q4 adj. EPS view 0.46-0.68 (exp. 0.91). Q4 revenue view 1.225-1.425bln (exp. 1.66bln). COMMENTARY: Taking steps to limit discretionary spending and tightly manage inventory levels during downcycle. Cautious about demand in near term given weak macro environment and customers’ ongoing actions to reduce inventory. (Newswires) Shares down 3.1% pre-market
TomTom (TOM2 NA) – Q4 (EUR): Revenue 143mln (exp. 142mln), Net -11.6mln (exp. -23mln), EBIT -10.4mln (exp. -29mln). FY24 Outlook: Revenue 570-610mln (exp. 600mln). Shares up 9.2% in European trade / Garmin shares up 0.7% in pre-market trade.

GEOPOLITICS

Hamas said they are still in the stage of consultation between internal and foreign leaders on the exchange deal, while it received the Paris truce proposal but has not given a response to any parties and it is still being studied. Furthermore, it cannot say the current stage of negotiations is zero, but also cannot say they have reached an agreement.
An Iranian revolutionary guard advisor killed in Israeli strike on Damascus, Syria, via semi-official Iranian News site..
Iraq’s pro-Iran Al-Nujaba movement vows to keep up attacks on US troops, according to AFP
North Korea fired several cruise missiles off its west coast, according to South Korea.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin (-0.2%) meanders around the USD 43k mark and Ethereum (+0.2%) is modestly firmer on the session.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks mostly took impetus from the gains on Wall St where stocks were underpinned amid a softer yield environment and with US equity futures boosted following the big tech earnings.
ASX 200 printed fresh all-time highs with real estate and tech front running the gains amid softer yields.
Nikkei 225 gained with headlines dominated by another busy day of earnings results, while Aozora Bank suffered another double-digit drop after it recently flagged losses linked to US commercial property loans.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were both initially boosted with outperformance in automakers after their January delivery updates, while tech names were supported after China’s NPPA approved 32 imported online games. However, stocks then gradually reversed course after the PBoC continued to drain liquidity despite next week’s Lunar New Year holiday.
Later in the session Chinese stocks rebounded shortly after the Shanghai Composite fell to fresh multi-year lows under 2,700; with some highlighting increased capital flows from Hong Kong via Stock Connect. Details here.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

China National Press and Publication Administration approved 32 imported online games, according to Reuters.
China urges state Cos to step up equity investments in new equity firms, via Bloomberg
IMF says China growth is projected to slow to 4.6% in 2024 amid the ongoing weakness in the property sector and subdued external demand. Inflation expected to increase gradually to 1.3% in 2024.

DATA RECAP

South Korean CPI MM (Jan) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.0%); CPI YY (Jan) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 3.2%)
Australian Home Loans MM (Dec) -4.1% vs Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.0%); PPI QQ (Q4) 0.9% (Prev. 1.8%); PPI YY (Q4) 4.1% (Prev. 3.8%)

2C ASIA AFFAIRS

FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN

The folly of the Japan carry trade gone haywire

(zerohedge)

Aozora Delivers Grim Reminder Of Japan Carry-Trade Risk

THURSDAY, FEB 01, 2024 – 10:00 PM

By Masaki Kondo, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist

Aozora Bank’s shock loss projection serves as a reminder of just how little room the Bank of Japan has to tighten its policy and for the nation’s bond yields to rise.

Carry trade isn’t just about buying and selling currencies in the spot or forward market (see “The $20 Trillion Carry Trade That Will Destroy Japan“). When investors in a country where interest rates are low raise funds domestically and invest the proceeds in higher-yielding assets abroad, it’s a form of carry trade. Banks in Japan can do this by gathering deposits at an average rate on ordinary deposits at 0.001% and buying higher-yielding overseas securities, such as five-year Treasuries with a yield of 3.8%.

It looks like Aozora has been doing just that.

The bank sold foreign securities to cut losses that were mainly caused by a rise in US interest rates. Nearly 40% of Aozora’s securities portfolio consists of foreign bonds but a share of foreign-currency assets is probably higher considering other asset classes such as ETFs include overseas securities. Japanese government bonds made up just 2% of the total portfolio.

This isn’t to say other Japanese banks are facing similar risks. But Japanese investors as a whole have boosted their overseas investment since the BOJ expanded monetary easing in 2013. Even if overseas assets have positive returns, a substantial rise in yen borrowing costs could risk triggering unwinding of this big Japan carry trade.

This suggests a first rate hike since 2007 will be a balancing act for the BOJ. It will probably settle for only small increases to avoid wreaking havoc. This outlook also argues for low bond yields in Japan.

More here.

END

3 CHINA

CHINA

END

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY

Majority of Germans reject left liberal immigration law

(Remix)

Majority Of Germans Reject Left-Liberal Government’s Radical Immigration Law

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 02:00 AM

Via Remix News,

A majority of Germans oppose the government’s radical immigration law, which will allow up to 2.5 million foreigners to obtain German citizenship in time for the federal election in 2025.

The poll, which was conducted by Insa on behalf of the Protestant News Agency, found that 51 percent of Germans are opposed to the new law, with only 32 percent supporting it. Not only is the law opposed by the majority of Germans, but they have a 19-point lead over supporters. Another 14 percent said they did not know how they felt about the law, and 3 percent had no answer for pollsters.

However, arguably an even more devastating poll from the Security Report 2024, conducted by the Allensbach Institute, shows that the population’s overall approval of the federal government’s current refugee policy is extremely low, with 65 percent of those surveyed saying that they did not consider their policy to be correct. According to the security report, over 80 percent of those surveyed have little or no trust in the federal government’s migration policy.

In the same poll, almost half (48 percent) of those questioned said that crime in Germany was increasing due to the influx of refugees, while in 2016, this figure was only 37 percent. The actual federal crime data shows that foreigners are vastly overrepresented in serious crimes, including murder, rape, robbery, and assault.

Germany’s new law would reduce the amount of time foreigners need to reside in Germany to be eligible for citizenship from seven years to five years, and in some cases, allow them to obtain citizenship in as little as three years. It would also allow for dual passports.

The recent Insa poll found that Alternative for Germany (AfD) supporters are the most opposed to the new law, with 86 percent rejecting easier naturalization. However, majorities also exist with the left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht alliance (BSW), with 61 percent against it, while supporters of the Christian Democrats (CDU) and Free Voters, both reject the law with 54 percent each.

Only 20 percent of voters of the Left reject the law, 29 percent from the Social Democrats (SPD) and 46 percent from the Free Democrats (FDP). Rejection is lowest among Green party supporters, at 18 percent.

The poll also shows that foreigners are very much in favor of the law, with only 35 percent saying they reject it, while half of them support faster naturalization. Fifty-three percent of those Germans without a migration background reject the law.

There is high support for the liberal immigration law among Germany’s Muslim population, with 57 percent saying they approve. However, despite the pro-refugee stance of many Christian organizations, there is a high rate of rejection among Christians for the new law, with majorities rejecting it for Catholics (52 percent), evangelicals (53 percent) and Free Church members (56 percent).

However, Hindus, Buddhists, and Jews form a plurality in support of the law (40 percent) to allow for faster naturalization for foreign citizens.

The polling shows a growing trend towards anti-immigration sentiment in Germany. For example, recent polls show a strong majority of Germans believe migrants bring more problems than benefits.

Fugitive Wanted For London Acid Attack That Injured 12 Is Afghan Asylum-Seeker & Convicted Sex Offender

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 07:20 AM

Authored by Thomas Brooke via ReMix News,

The prime suspect being sought by police in connection with a horrific acid attack in London on Wednesday evening is an Afghan national who came to Britain as an asylum seeker, it has emerged.

The Metropolitan Police named 35-year-old Abdul Ezedi as the man wanted for the attack which left multiple victims, including two young children, needing hospital treatment after coming into contact with a corrosive substance.

Further details came to light regarding the incident on Thursday after CCTV was published showing Ezedi fleeing from the scene with significant facial injuries.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

Police in the U.K. have named Abdul Shokoor Ezedi as their main suspect in an acid attack on a young mother and her two children, aged 3 and 8, in London yesterday. Six other people, including three police officers, were also reportedly injured. He remains on the loose and police are urging the public not to approach him.

It is understood that the suspect accosted a 31-year-old mother who was with her two young daughters, aged 3 and 8. He is believed to have traveled down from Newcastle to London on the day of the attack and was known to the mother, suggesting it was a targeted incident.

The mother and her two children were all exposed to what police believe to be a corrosive alkaline substance. The mother and the three-year-old – who was also thrown to the ground during the attack – are understood to have life-changing injuries but are in a stable condition in the hospital.

Upon trying to flee from the scene, Ezedi attempted to drive off in a nearby car but collided with a stationary vehicle. Four bystanders – three men and a woman – who attempted to intervene during the attack were also injured with three sustaining minor burns.

Five police officers responding to the attack also needed medical treatment bringing the total number of victims to 12 from the initially reported nine.

Medical supplies were retrieved from the scene where passers-by and emergency responders had attempted to treat the burns victims and London Mayor Sadiq Khan revealed a nearby hotel had allowed the victims entry to wash their eyes following the horrific attack.

CCTV in Caledonian Road, north London, showed Ezedi entering a Tesco supermarket where he purchased a bottle of water, presumably to treat his own burn injuries. A still of this footage was released by police to the public.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

“The image shows Ezedi with what appears to be significant injuries to the right side of his face. This makes him distinctive. If you see Ezedi, call 999 immediately. He should not be approached,” a Metropolitan Police statement read.

Ezedi was refused asylum in Britain twice but remained in the country

MailOnline reported on Thursday evening that Ezedi entered Britain illegally in the back of a lorry back in 2016 from Afghanistan.

His asylum application was rejected twice but he remained in the country and was successfully granted refugee status on the third attempt in 2020 after persuading a priest to vouch that he had converted to Christianity and would be persecuted should he return to his homeland.

The Sun reported that Ezedi’s asylum request was approved despite being convicted of a sexual offense back in 2018 and being handed a suspended sentence with an unpaid work order.

He is understood to have been residing in Newcastle. The owner of a used car garage in the northeast English city told media he recognized Ezedi from the CCTV image and claimed he lived in a halfway house for asylum seekers in the area.

“He tried to buy a car from us,” said 37-year-old mechanic Michael Binks.

“As soon as my boss saw his picture on the news he recognized him. It’s a couple of months since we last saw him,” he added.

Police remained optimistic about the chances of locating the suspect and the Met Police confirmed they were collaborating with Northumbria Police on the assumption the suspect may attempt to return to the northeast of England.

“We will catch him, I am wholeheartedly confident,” said Supt Gabriel Cameron.

Read more here…

END

end

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/HAMAS/GAZA

Approximately 70-75% of Hamas have been defeated with 10,000 Hamas dead, 10,000 wounded and 2500 captured.

Israel defeats Hamas in Khan Yunis, over 10,000 Gazan terrorists killed

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that after additional gains by the IDF in Khan Yunis, 10,000 Hamas fighters have been killed and 10,000 wounded.

By YONAH JEREMY BOBFEBRUARY 1, 2024 19:59

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visits IDF soldiers in Khan Yunis, Gaza on February 1, 2024 (photo credit: ARIEL HERMONI/DEFENSE MINISTRY) — Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visits IDF soldiers in Khan Yunis, Gaza on February 1, 2024(photo credit: ARIEL HERMONI/DEFENSE MINISTRY)

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-hamas-war%2Farticle-784787&unitId=2900003088&userId=0984023a-6fcf-4b29-a5e6-1be85cfd6d0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20240201_372802f60fe2e428936699a750ca73fd9e80d955&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced on Thursday night that Hamas forces in Khan Yunis have been officially defeated.

He said that after additional gains by the IDF in Khan Yunis, 10,000 Hamas fighters have been killed and 10,000 wounded, up from around 9,000 killed and around 8,000 wounded around a week and a half ago.

If true, along with the close to 2,500 Hamas terrorists who have been arrested, the percentage of Hamas forces out of commission would now be up to between 56-75%, up from 48-64% around 10 days ago, presuming Hamas’ forces pre-war were between 30,000-40,000.

Gallant’s statement that the IDF has completed taking apart Hamas’s remaining battalions in Khan Yunis, including in the western part of the terror group’s southern Gaza capital, would also seem to be a week or a couple of weeks ahead of IDF statements.

Earlier this week, the IDF said it was on the verge of taking apart Hamas’s final Khan Yunis battalion in the western section but appeared to suggest that it could still be some weeks before the process was complete.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visits IDF soldiers in Khan Yunis, Gaza on February 1, 2024 (credit: ARIEL HERMONI/DEFENSE MINISTRY)

It was unclear if some additional dramatic progress had been made in the last few days or if Gallant was projecting a bit forward by a week or so.

The IDF itself still has not announced full operational control in Khan Yunis as it did in northern Gaza in late December and early January.

Gallant vows to rout Hamas in Gaza’s Rafah

The defense minister also vowed to rout Hamas in Rafah, where to date, the military has avoided using ground troops so as not to alienate Egypt.

However, an increasing number of top officials have suggested to the Jerusalem Post that Hamas’s top leaders and many hostages may have moved from Khan Yunis to Rafah.

END

ISRAEL GAZA/HAMAS

This has no chance of becoming real

(JerusalemPost)

Hamas says truce proposal ‘still being studied’ as Israeli war cabinet meets on deal

Qatar ‘optimistic’ after receiving ‘initial positive confirmation’ from terror group on hostage agreement, but source close to Hamas says Qatari statement was ‘rushed and not true’

By AGENCIES and TOI STAFFToday, 1:27 am

Demonstrators block a main road demanding an immediate deal for the release Israeli hostages held in the Gaza Strip by Palestinian terrorists, during a protest near the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv on February 1, 2024. (AHMAD GHARABLI / AFP)

Hamas has given “initial positive confirmation” to a proposal for the cessation of fighting in Gaza and the release of hostages, Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesman asserted Thursday, but the Palestinian terror group swiftly denied doing so.

“That proposal has been approved by the Israeli side and now we have an initial positive confirmation from the Hamas’ side,” Majed al-Ansari told an audience at a Washington-based graduate school. “There is still a very tough road in front of us.”

“We are optimistic because both sides now agreed to the premise that would lead to a next pause. We’re hopeful that in the next couple of weeks, we’ll be able to share good news about that,” he added.

The comments at Johns Hopkins University briefly triggered some celebrations in Gaza, including festive gunfire, and a drop in the price of crude oil.

A Qatari official clarified to Reuters that there was “no deal yet” and that although “Hamas has received the proposal positively,” Qatar was “waiting for their response.”

But a Hamas official told Reuters a short while later that the terror group has “received the Paris truce proposal but we haven’t given response to any of parties, it is still being studied.”

“We cannot say the current stage of negotiation is zero and at the same time we cannot say that we have reached an agreement,” said Taher al-Nono, the media adviser Qatar-based Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh.

Qatar Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari (video screenshot)

Additionally, a senior Palestinian source told Lebanese news outlet Al-Mayadeen that Qatar jumped the gun in appearing to announce that Hamas had given initial approval to the ceasefire proposal.

The statement “was rushed and is incorrect,” the source said, claiming that Hamas’s leadership had yet to schedule meetings in Cairo to discuss the proposal with Egyptian mediators.

A similar quote was carried by AFP from a source close to Hamas: “There is no agreement on the framework of the agreement yet — the factions have important observations — and the Qatari statement is rushed and not true.”

In Al-Mayadeen, the source claimed the positive signals were a plot by the Israeli media to stir up public expectations about the nascent deal.

Israeli protesters raise placards bearing messages and pictures of Israeli hostages held by Hamas since October 7, 2023, as they protest outside the Defense Ministry, calling for their release and negotiations for a deal between Israel and Hamas, in Tel Aviv on February 1, 2024. (Ahmad Gharabli/AFP)

A delegation of Hamas leaders was in Cairo on Thursday for talks with Egyptian officials, including the head of Egyptian intelligence, Major General Abbas Kamel, on the possible deal, the outline of which was drawn up during a meeting in Paris on Sunday in the presence of Israeli and US officials, as well as Qatari and Egyptian negotiators.

According to some reports, the outline offers the possibility of a six-week pause in fighting in Gaza for the first time since late November, and the release of all 136 hostages still in Gaza, not all of whom are alive. Other reports, however, have said the framework provides for the release of only 35 hostages — women, the elderly and the sick — during a 35-day initial truce, with the potential for another week’s pause in fighting during which negotiations could be held on further releases. Still other reports have cited differing terms in the unconfirmed framework deal.

Hamas and other terror factions are holding onto 132 of the 253 hostages taken on October 7 during the unprecedented shock onslaught, following a weeklong November truce deal that saw the release of 105 civilians, mostly women and children.

The IDF has said 29 of the 132 are dead, citing intelligence and findings obtained by troops operating in Gaza. One more person is listed as missing since October 7, and their fate is still unknown.

Hamas is also holding the bodies of fallen IDF soldiers Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin since 2014, as well as two Israeli civilians, Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, who are both thought to be alive after entering the Strip of their own accord in 2014 and 2015 respectively.

Haniyeh was expected in Cairo talks on the proposed truce. It was unclear Thursday if Haniyeh was already there, after an Egyptian official said the Doha-based leader led the Hamas delegation, which included senior members Mousa Abu Marzook and Khalil al-Hayya.

Israel’s war cabinet met earlier this week to discuss the proposal and was meeting again Thursday evening for more talks.

The war cabinet meets at the IDF’s Kirya military headquarters on January 25, 2024. (Amos Ben-Gershom/GPO)

According to one report on the framework of the deal, all civilian hostages held by the Palestinian terror group in Gaza would be freed over the proposed six-week pause in fighting, in exchange for three times as many Palestinian security prisoners released from Israeli jails.

According to Kan news, however, the Qatari and Egyptian mediators are pushing for an extended pause in fighting that would last longer than two months, and which would not end before the last day of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan which is expected to run from around March 10 to April 9, 2024.

Key elements of the deal are said to have not been finalized, and a central sticking point is said to remain unresolved: While Hamas has said it will not sign onto any deal unless Israel commits to a withdrawal and permanent end to the war, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed not to pull troops out until “total victory” has been achieved — which he defines as largely eradicating Hamas.

Channel 12’s Arab affairs analyst Ehud Yaari said Thursday that Hamas was still insisting on an end to the war and suggested a “10-year hudna” armistice. He also said Hamas has shown a willingness to hand over Gaza to civilian rule but would not agree to have its Gaza leaders go into exile.

Channel 12 also reported Thursday that Israel’s military leadership has conveyed that it could handle the protracted pauses built into the deal framework and could resume operations following the lulls in fighting.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant (center) speaks to troops of the 98th Division in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis, February 1, 2024. (Ariel Hermoni/Defense Ministry)

A Palestinian official close to the talks said on Thursday that Hamas was unlikely to reject the proposal it received from mediators, but would not sign it without assurances that Israel has committed to ending the war.

“I expect that Hamas will not reject the paper, but it might not give a decisive agreement either,” the official told Reuters earlier, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“Instead, I expect them to send a positive response, and reaffirm their demands: for the agreement to be signed, it must ensure Israel will commit to ending the war in Gaza and pull out from the enclave completely.”

Jerusalem is highly unlikely to agree to this.

According to reports from both Israeli and Palestinian sources, the envisioned hostage deal is designed to occur in three stages.

Citing a draft of the proposed deal read by “officials involved in the talks,” the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that the US is “pushing for a [temporary] ceasefire deal that could stop the war in Gaza long enough to stall Israel’s military momentum and potentially set the stage for a more lasting truce.”

The three-part deal being considered by both parties, the Journal said, would start with a six-week truce in which Israel would be required to end all military operations, including drone surveillance. All civilian hostages would be freed by Hamas, and Gazan civilians would be able to move freely around the Strip. Humanitarian aid, which is currently all but unable to reach the northern part of the Strip, would be able to be distributed without limitations. An unspecified number of Palestinian security prisoners would go free.

During the second stage of the deal, female IDF soldiers would be released in return for increased humanitarian aid, ensuring that hospitals, water services and bakeries could resume operations as normal.

Gazans ride on the back of a truck along an overcrowded street in Rafah in the southern part of the Palestinian territory on February 1, 2024. (Mahmud Hams / AFP)

Hamas has demanded that Israel free 150 Palestinian security prisoners for each released female soldier hostage, the report stated, adding that this ratio is one of the issues under contention.

The third and final stage of the deal would see Hamas return all males it considers to be IDF soldiers — which includes all civilians whose age makes them eligible for reserve duty. Hamas would also return the bodies of dead hostages, of which there are at least 29, during this final stage.

Hamas would also require Israel to release an undetermined number of Palestinian security prisoners during this final stage, and would potentially require them to be high-risk Palestinians serving sentences for murderous attacks, including those captured inside Israel on October 7.

Along with Hamas’s demand that the truce lead to a permanent ceasefire, the issue of the Palestinian prisoners is expected to be one of the main areas of disagreement.

Netanyahu stressed on Wednesday that Israel will not agree to a deal “at any cost,” and that it will not end the war, pull the IDF out of the Gaza Strip or “release thousands of terrorists.”

In addition, the Journal reported, Hamas could refuse to release a small group of hostages and instead hold onto them as a future bargaining chip or as human shields.

Israel has vowed to end Hamas’s rule over Gaza following the terror group’s October 7 attack, in which thousands of Hamas-led terrorists launched a shock assault on southern Israel in the early morning hours of the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah. Terrorists overran more than 20 communities, killed 1,200 people, including 360 at an outdoor music festival, many of them slaughtered amid brutal atrocities, and seized 253 hostages.

An aerial campaign and subsequent ground operation has laid waste to much of the Palestinian enclave, displacing around 85% of its 2.3 million residents, but has so far failed to reach the terror group’s top leadership, believed to be hiding in a vast underground tunnel network.

The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said on Thursday that more than 27,000 people had been killed since the start of the war, though these figures cannot be independently verified, and are believed to include both civilians and Hamas members killed in Gaza, including as a consequence of terror groups’ own rocket misfires. The IDF says it has killed over 10,000 operatives in Gaza, in addition to some 1,000 terrorists inside Israel on October 7.

END

ISRAEL/HAMAS

Israel demolishes another Hamas rocket production site in central Gaza

(Jerusalem Post)

IDF demolishes Hamas rocket production site in central Gaza

Soldiers from the Yiftah Brigade raided safes belonging to Hamas, seizing documents showing how Hamas transfers funds.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF

IDF soldiers operate in central Gaza. (photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT) — IDF soldiers operate in central Gaza.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

The IDF’s 646th Brigade destroyed a complex used by Hamas to produce rockets in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip, the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit said Friday.

The complex contained civilian and dual-use machines which were converted by Hamas for the production of weapons.

In the central Gaza Strip, soldiers from the 99th Division eliminated many terrorists and damaged terrorist infrastructure, working to prevent the passage of terrorists and weapons from northern Gaza to central Gaza.

Soldiers from the Yiftah Brigade raided safes belonging to Hamas, seizing NIS 100,000, as well as documents showing how Hamas transfers funds.

Soldiers from the 179th Brigade eliminated hundreds of terrorists and located and destroyed a significant tunnel route.

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3662127&url=www.jpost.comIDF soldiers operate in central Gaza. (Credit: IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)

Go to the full article >>

END

ISRAEL/IRAN/SYRIA

Another Israel airstrike targeting Iranian strongholds near Damascus

(Jerusalem Post)

Alleged Israeli airstrikes target Iranian stronghold near Damascus – report

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFFEBRUARY 2, 2024 07:25

Alleged Israeli airstrikes targeted Sayyidah Zaynab, a stronghold of Iranian militias, near Damascus early on Friday morning, according to Syrian reports.

The strikes targeted the Sayyidah Zaynab area, an area which has been targeted several times by alleged Israeli airstrikes in recent months, according to the Syrian Capital Voice news site.

Sites near Aqraba in southern Syria were targeted as well, according to Nour Abo Hassan, a journalist in the area.

Syrian state media had not confirmed the reports as of Friday morning.

END

After Fresh Israeli Strikes On Damascus, Whole Region Braces For US Attack, Possibly ‘Hours’ Away

BY TYLER DURDEN

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 09:30 AM

Sky News Arabia is reporting Friday morning that major US strikes against Iran-aligned targets may begin within hours, while NBC is once again reporting that Biden’s counterattack plan in response to the killing of three Americans last weekend is expected to unfold over days and possibly even weeks.

The speculation over the scope of the expected attacks has grown with each passing day that there are no strikes. An overnight Israeli attack on parts of Damascus triggered initial speculation it could have been the start of the US operation, but it appeared another Israeli ‘one-off’ hit on Syria.

A southern district of the Syrian capital was targeted, reportedly resulting in the death of an Iranian Revolutionary Guards adviser. Recent weeks have seen an uptick in these Israeli operation which have as their aim the assassination of IRGC commanders in Syria.

“The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, said the strike hit a farm housing members of Lebanon’s Iran-backed militant Hezbollah group and other Iran-backed factions,” Associated Press reported.

“It said the strike killed seven people, including four Syrians, one of whom was the bodyguard of a member of Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. It did not give the nationalities of the others,” the report added. State media sources additionally described:

“At approximately 4:20 a.m. today, the Israeli enemy launched an air aggression from the direction of the occupied Syrian Golan, targeting a number of points south of Damascus. Our air defense media responded to the aggression’s missiles and shot down some of them, where the losses were limited to material losses.”

The deadly Israeli attack is a sign of what’s imminently to come with the larger, broader US operation expected to take place across parts of Syria and Iraq.

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi issued a warning in response Friday, saying Tehran is ready to “respond strongly” to anyone trying to bully Iran. “We will not start any war, but if anyone wants to bully us they will receive a strong response,” he said in a televised speech.

“Before, when they (the Americans) wanted to talk to us, they said the military option is on the table. Now they say they have no intention of a conflict with Iran,” Raisi added. “The Islamic Republic’s military power in the region is not and never has been a threat.”

There have meanwhile been widespread reports saying Iran has already pulled its senior officers out of Iran. This has led some Congressional leaders to criticize the Biden administration’s telegraphing the strikes too much, saying the time delay and media reports have allowed Iran and their proxies to prepare. Republican Congressman from Florida Mike Walz said the extent of foreknowledge and wait time makes the whole operation “deliberately unserious”.

US defense officials have repeatedly said the weather is a major determining factor as far as the timing of the coming strikes…

The US has approved strikes against Iranian targets in Iraq and Syria, in response to the killing of three US soldiers in Jordan.

Citing unnamed US officials, CBS said weather and visibility are going to be a major factor in the timing of the strikeshttps://t.co/c6DBUXsYkq— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) February 2, 2024

In a Thursday briefing, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was asked whether the US has telegraphed its response too much to the point of essentially allowing leaders to return to Iran. He essentially dodged the question, saying, “We will have a multi-tiered response.”

In Iraq, the AFP is reporting Friday that the pro-Iran Al-Nujaba movement and affiliated militias are vowing to keep up attacks on US troops, no matter Washington’s military response in the region.

END

This deal had no chance of happening//latest afternoon news

(zerohedge)

Truce Deal Is Faltering As Hamas Wants A Who’s Who Of Murderers Released

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 01:57 PM

Update(1357ET): This week has seen several false starts when it comes to announcing an Israel-Hamas truce and new prisoner exchange deal, as we reported yesterday. Qatar on Thursday said Hamas has issued ‘positive confirmation’ that it’s seriously contemplating the deal. It would theoretically result in several rounds of hostage/prisoner exchanges, with the Israeli side ultimately wanting to see all captives freed from Gaza by the end of the process, which would happen over a 2-month ceasefire period.

While both sides appear to agree that major concessions will have to be made on the swap front, the big hold-up centers on precisely who Hamas is trying to spring from Israeli prisons. Israeli officials complain that Hamas is seeking the release of several multi-murderers. A top Hamas official has been cited in Israeli media as saying the following:

He mentioned two by name, including Marwan Barghouti, a popular Palestinian leader seen as a unifying figure. Barghouti was arrested by Israel in 2002 and is serving five life terms for planning three terror attacks that killed five Israelis during the Second Intifada.

In addition to Barghouti, Hamdan named Ahmad Saadat, head of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine terror group, as well as Hamas prisoners and those from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist organization. Saadat is serving a 30-year sentence for his role in the 2001 assassination of Israeli tourism minister Rehavam Ze’evi.

And here is a key line from a breaking Times of Israel report that strongly suggests negotiations are looking much bleaker than previously reported:

Top Hamas rep says ‘there is no way’ terror group will accept a non-permanent ceasefire; Israeli official puts odds of reaching deal at ‘no more than 50/50’

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

The terrorists at the top of the Hamas list for release are terrifyingly dangerous. Here are some of them. Marwan Barghouti: Indicted in an Israeli civilian court on 26 charges of murder and attempted murder stemming from attacks carried out by the al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades on Israeli civilians and soldiers. Considered the main candidate to take over from Abu Mazen as head of the PA.

Ahmad Saadat:

Secretary-General of the PFLP. He was sentenced to 30 years in prison for heading an “illegal terrorist organization” and responsible for all actions carried out by his organization, particularly for the murder of Minister Rehavam Ze’evi.

Abdullah Ghaleb Barghouti

: Leading commander in Hamas’ armed wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, in the West Bank. Serving 67 life terms for his role in the slaughter of dozens of Israelis.

Hassan Salameh:

The close aid to the engineer Yahya Abd-al-Latif Ayyash of Hamas. He was found guilty of the murder of 100 Israelis and sentenced to 46 consecutive life sentences.

Abbas al-Sayed:

Responsible for the 2001 Sharon shopping mall terror attack, in which 35 Israelis died and hundreds were wounded, and the 2002 Park Hotel bombing in Netanya that left 30 dead and 140 wounded.

Ibrahim Hamed:

54 life sentences for his complicity in the murder of 46 Israelis in bombing attacks. He was convicted for his role in some of the most murderous bombings of the second intifada, among them the bombing at Jerusalem’s Café Moment in March 2002. These are just the worst names among 8,000 terrorists in Israeli custody. Most are from the West Bank. Can you imagine the impact on Israeli security of all of them being released at once when Hamas is at the peak of its popularity?

0&features=eyJ0ZndfdGltZWxpbmVfbGlzdCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOltdLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2Zvb

The US has approved strikes against Iranian targets in Iraq and Syria, in response to the killing of three US soldiers in Jordan. Citing unnamed US officials, CBS said weather and visibility are going to be a major factor in the timing of the strikes

US approves strikes against Iranian targets in Iraq and Syria: Report

From middleeasteye.net

Hamas has demanded a full IDF withdrawal of ground forces from the Strip, but at the same time Defense Minister Gallant has said victory over Khan Younis is imminent, and that the military will target the far southern city of Rafah next. Crucially, PM Netanyahu has vowed to not stop the operation until completely eradicating Hamas. Simultaneously there have been reports of a reemerging Hamas presence in the north.

* * *

“At approximately 4:20 a.m. today, the Israeli enemy launched an air aggression from the direction of the occupied Syrian Golan, targeting a number of points south of Damascus. Our air defense media responded to the aggression’s missiles and shot down some of them, where the losses were limited to material losses.”

The deadly Israeli attack is a sign of what’s imminently to come with the larger, broader US operation expected to take place across parts of Syria and Iraq.

US defense officials have repeatedly said the weather is a major determining factor as far as the timing of the coming strikes…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

end

This is huge news

(Saudi Arabia/Israel/USA)

Saudi Arabia willing to make concessions on Palestinians for peace with Israel

Saudi officials have told their US counterparts that Riyadh would not insist Israel take concrete steps to create a Palestinian state.

By REUTERSFEBRUARY 2, 2024 11:26Updated: FEBRUARY 2, 2024 13:30

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/REUTERS) — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman(photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/REUTERS)

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-hamas-war%2Farticle-784866&unitId=2900003088&userId=0825748c-83eb-4fa6-9d99-5d5781551d74&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20240201_372802f60fe2e428936699a750ca73fd9e80d955&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140

Saudi Arabia would be willing to accept a political commitment from Israel to create a Palestinian state, rather than anything more binding, in a bid to get a defense pact with Washington approved before the US presidential election, three sources said.

Months of US-led diplomacy to get Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel and recognize the country for the first time were shelved by Riyadh in October in the face of mounting Arab anger over the war in Gaza.

But Saudi Arabia is increasingly keen to shore up its security and ward off threats from rival Iran so the kingdom can forge ahead with its ambitious plan to transform its economy and attract huge foreign investment, two regional sources said.

Saudi Arabia to accept Israeli ‘political commitment’

To create some wiggle room in talks about recognizing Israel and to get the US pact back on track, Saudi officials have told their US counterparts that Riyadh would not insist Israel take concrete steps to create a Palestinian state and would instead accept a political commitment to a two-state solution, two senior regional sources told Reuters.

Such a major regional deal, widely seen as a long-shot even before the Israel-Hamas war, would still face numerous political and diplomatic obstacles, not least the uncertainty over how the Gaza conflict will unfold.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, June 6, 2023 (credit: VIA REUTERS)

A pact giving the world’s biggest oil exporter US military protection in exchange for normalization with Israel would reshape the Middle East by uniting two long-time foes and binding Riyadh to Washington at a time when China is making inroads in the region.

A normalization deal would also bolster Israel’s defenses against arch-rival Iran and give US President Joe Biden a diplomatic victory to vaunt ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election.Advertisement

The Saudi officials have privately urged Washington to press Israel to end the Gaza war and commit to a “political horizon” for a Palestinian state, saying Riyadh would then normalize relations and help fund Gaza’s reconstruction, one of the regional sources said.

“The message from the kingdom to America has been: ‘Stop the war first, allow humanitarian aid and commit to a just and lasting solution to give the Palestinians a state’,” said Abdelaziz al-Sagher, head of the Gulf Research Center think-tank in Jeddah, who is familiar with the ongoing discussions. “Without it, Saudi Arabia can’t do anything.”

The problem, though, is that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has spent much of his political career opposing Palestinian statehood, has rejected outright any US and Arab aspirations for a Palestinian state once the Gaza war is over.

“Normalization does require really – if not legally, at least politically – a commitment from the Israelis that they are open to a two-state solution,” said one of the senior regional sources familiar with Saudi thinking.

“If Israel stopped its military offensive on Gaza – or at least declared a ceasefire – it would make it easier for Saudi Arabia to go ahead with the deal,” the person said.

The Saudi government’s communication office did not respond to requests for comment.

IRAN/IRAQ/SYRIA/USA

Bozo Biden does it again!! He alerts the enemy of the forthcoming attack so they get out of harms way.

(JerusalemPost)

‘IRGC Is Getting Out Of Dodge’: Biden Has Telegraphed Syria-Iraq Response Too Much

THURSDAY, FEB 01, 2024 – 08:40 PM

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in a Thursday press briefing claimed that “Our soldiers were killed by Iranian agents,” in reference to the weekend drone attack on a Jordanian base which killed three American troops. It is now being widely reported that the Pentagon will launch multiple days of airstrikes on ‘Iranian targets’ and assets in Syria and Iraq.

Biden admin officials in the last two days have been leaking to the press information about the scope of operations. But Iran hawks aren’t happy, saying this level of telegraphing has given Iranian and IRGC officers ample time and opportunity to vacate their bases.

Even as of Monday there were widespread reports that Iran-linked groups were temporarily abandoning their bases in the region, fearing immediate major attacks.

One think tank Iran hawk, Jason Brodsky, complained on Thursday as US strikes are imminent, “The U.S. government is really helping IRGC terrorists get out of Dodge—the long lead time coupled with visibility into the U.S. response. It raises all kinds of questions and none of them are good.”

And Republican Congressman from Florida Mike Walz said the extent of foreknowledge and wait time makes the whole operation “deliberately unserious”.

Rep. Mike Waltz

@michaelgwaltz

This is deliberately unserious.

Quote

Jennifer Griffin

@JenGriffinFNC

And all of those IRGC commanders have already left Syria and gone into hiding leaving those bases. The Pentagon usually does not telegraph so much if it wants the element of surprise. twitter.com/shashj/statu

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

Another commentator pointed out that the Biden admin has been “vocal about targeting the IRGC in Iraq & Syria, yet reports say the IRGC has moved its top officers back to Iran… This move raises questions: Is the admin soft on the IRGC or looking to protect them?”

According to Reuters:

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have scaled back deployment of their senior officers in Syria due to a spate of deadly Israeli strikes and will rely more on allied Shi’ite militia to preserve their sway there, five sources familiar with the matter said.

The Guards have suffered one of their most bruising spells in Syria since arriving a decade ago to aid President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian war. Since December, Israeli strikes have killed more than half a dozen of their members, among them one of the Guards’ top intelligence generals.

Earlier in the day Defense Secretary Austin was asked whether the US has telegraphed its response too much to the point of essentially allowing leaders to return to Iran. He essentially dodged the question, saying, “We will have a multi-tiered response.”

We should point that to some degree the basic Western assumptions that there are “Iran-backed” groups running around all over Syria, and that they take orders directly from Tehran is an exaggeration and misleading. While certainly any group fighting on behalf of the pro-Damascus/Baghdad/Tehran axis is ‘Iran-linked’, there’s still multiple and varied interests driving them. For example, militias close to the Syrian government are seeking to push out the years-long US troop occupation of the country’s vital oil and gas resources. Syrian nationalism is something very different from Iran’s Islamic revolutionary ideology.

The New York Times too has conceded that despite it being well-known that Tehran arms and funds the main Shia militias in Iraq, there remains no evidence that Tehran is “calling the shots” when it comes to events like attacks on US personnel out of Syria or Iraq.

As for the major counter-Iran strikes, it seems Biden wants to show he’s “doing something” ahead of the election, but an operation which poses less risk for rapid direct escalation with the Islamic Republic. He’s going for the “easy” lay up of attacking Syria again, which has already been done several times over the years.

end

USA/IRANIAN BACKED MILITIA/SYRIA

Biden, the Timid begins his useless ‘retaliatory strikes” with Iranians already having fled the scene

(zerohedge)

US ‘Retaliatory Strikes’ Underway Over Syria

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 03:35 PM

Update(1535ET): It’s currently just after 11:30pm in the Middle East, and weather is clear. The Biden administration has begun its retaliatory strikes:

FIRST US MILITARY RETALIATORY STRIKES UNDERWAY IN SYRIA: ABC

* * *

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA

end

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

OTHER MEDICAL VACCINE INJURY/CANCER REPORTS//FREEDOM ISSUES

The Vigilant Fox on X: “‘The UK Has a Problem’: Ed Dowd Reveals Alarming Excess Death Data in Children On the Jimmy Dore show, data analyst @DowdEdward unveiled an alarming trend: excess deaths among UK children are up a staggering 22 percent in 2023. What’s the heck is causing this? Dowd blamed what… https://t.co/hqng5m89YX” / X

Likely similar in other countries
https://twitter.com/VigilantFox/status/1753101373829501284

GLOBAL ISSUES

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

More than 10 policemen have “died suddenly” in Italy since January 1

An article that mentions “vaccination” (!) notes that the policemen’s union has been looking for “a coherent analysis of the phenomenon,” but that the government appears to be stonewalling them

MARK CRISPIN MILLERFEB 1

READ IN APP

Since this nightmare started just over three years ago, we’ve been noticing that more and more people have “died suddenly” not singly but collectively. Last year, for instance, some 15 Jamaican schoolteachers dropped dead within the same few months (more black lives that don’t matter, since it was the “vaccines,” not white cops, that had taken them); and, on the basis of our recent compilations, Jen Young, a staunch subscriber, commented on the recent spike in people “dying suddenly” in pairs:

A son & father die 2 months apart in Wales

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

Excellent interview by Dr. Peter McCullough: “Millions Injured or Dead Including Public Figures, Dr. McCullough Searching for Answers on the American Moutsos Show “

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERFEB 1

READ IN APP

‘By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH

I had a trusted friend message me and say this video hits home since so many public figures and celebrities are mentioned with COVID-19 vaccine injuries or worse. I really enjoyed working with Eric Moutsos for the first time. From his Spotify page:

“Eric Moutsos, a former cop, small business owner, speaker, author, husband, father, and CEO of Freedomblends.com, brings his unique and patriotic view of God, Family, Country, Politics, and Current Events.”

Please enjoy this update on the COVID-19 vaccine debacle. We have so many implications for both the vaccinated and unvaccinated.’

Courageous Discourse™ with Dr. Peter McCullough & John Leake

Millions Injured or Dead Including Public Figures

By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH I had a trusted friend message me and say this video hits home since so many public figures and celebrities are mentioned with COVID-19 vaccine injuries or worse. I really enjoyed working with Eric Moutsos for the first time. From his Spotify page…

Listen now

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News

Top Expert Raises Alarm over Sudden Death Surge among Children A leading expert has gone public after learning of a shocking surge in sudden deaths among children that started in 2021 after kids were given “the magic juice.”READ MORE

Megyn Kelly Says She Was ‘Targeted’ by Big Pharma for Speaking Publicly about Vaccine Injury Former Fox News star Megyn Kelly has revealed that she has been “targeted” by the pharmaceutical industry after she went public about the side effects she suffered after receiving the Covid mRNA injection from Moderna.READ MORE

Millions in New Dark Money Funneled into Biden’s Top Super PAC Millions of dollars in new dark money funds have been funneled into Democrat President Joe Biden’s primary super political action committee (PAC), financial filings have revealed.READ MORE

Jimmy Kimmel: Concern about Biden’s Mental Fitness Is a ‘Crazy Conspiracy Theory’Liberal TV host Jimmy Kimmel has claimed that growing concerns about Democrat President Joe Biden’s mental fitness are based on a “crazy conspiracy theory.”READ MORE

Chicago Demands ‘Ceasefire’ in Gaza as Crime Runs Rampant in Democrat-Led City Chicago has provoked outrage among residents after officials demanded a “ceasefire” in Hamas-controlled Gaza while violent crime runs rampant in the Democrat-led Illinois city.READ MORE

Radical Democrats Cori Bush & Rashida Tlaib Vote against Bill to Ban Terrorists from America Radical Democrat Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO) and Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) were the only two members of Congress who voted against a House bill to ban known terrorists from entering the United States.READ MORE

John Podesta to Replace John Kerry as Biden’s ‘Climate Czar’Hillary Clinton’s failed 2016 campaign manager John Podesta will replace John Kerry as Democrat President Joe Biden’s so-called “climate czar,” the White House has announced.READ MORE

Pro-Life Protesters Found Guilty, Face Up to 11 Years in Federal Prison Six pro-lifer protesters have been found guilty over a peaceful demonstration at a Tennessee abortion facility in 2021.READ MORE

Trump Admin Official Shot in DC, in Critical Condition after Carjacking A former top official in President Donald Trump’s administration has been shot and critically injured during an attempted carjacking outside his home in Washington D.C.READ MORE

Male ‘Transgender’ Runner Smashes New York School’s Female Records Again A male runner has smashed two school records in female track and field events.READ MORE

FBI: Chinese Hackers Preparing to ‘Wreak Havoc and Cause Real-World Harm to American Citizens’FBI Director Christopher Wray has issued a chilling warning about an apparent threat from Chinese Communist Party hackers.READ MORE

Liberal Journalists Outnumber Conservatives by 11 to 1, Study Shows America has more than ten times as many liberal journalists than conservative reporters, a new study has revealed.READ MORE

FBI Violated Constitutional Rights of Hundreds of Americans by Raiding Safety Deposit Boxes, Appeals Court Rules When agents representing Democrat President Joe Biden’s weaponized FBI raided a California safety deposit box business in 2021, they violated the constitutional rights of hundreds of Americans, a federal appeals court has ruled.READ MORE

EVOL NEWS:

FBI: Chinese Hackers Preparing to ‘Wreak Havoc and Cause Real-World Harm to American Citizens’ – EVOL
READ MORE…

LATEST NEWS:
Massive Natural Gas Pipeline Explosion in Oklahoma Triggers 500-Foot Fireball – EVOL
Read more…
Lindsey Graham Slams Facebook’s Zuckerberg for ‘Killing People’: ‘You Have Blood on Your Hands’ – EVOL
Read more…
Major Study Exposes Spike in Heart Failure among Vaccinated – EVOL
Read more…

NEWS ADDICT

LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES

Covid Shots Developed as ‘Weapons of Mass Destruction,’ Report Shows The U.S. government developed Covid mRNA shots as “weapons of mass destruction” or WMDs, a bombshell new report has revealed.READ THE FULL REPORT

Actor Kurt Russell Defends Second Amendment against Gun-Grabbing Hollywood Liberals Actor Kurt Russell has spoken out in defense of Americans’ Second Amendment rights and blasted gun-grabbing Hollywood liberals for campaigning to take them away.READ THE FULL REPORT

‘Whistleblower’ Comes Forward with Disturbing Audio That Dooms Fani Willis Newly discovered audio recordings have been leaked, revealing yet another scandal in Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’s office.READ THE FULL REPORT

‘Little Known’ Obama Directive Could be Gamechanger for Trump’s Classified Documents Case A “little-known” Obama administration rule aimed at protecting the White House from foreign hackers “may be relevant” to former President Donald Trump’s legal exposure in his felony classified materials case, according to a Freedom of Information Act request from a legal watchdog.READ THE FULL REPORT

Judge Slams Brakes On Elon Musk’s Record-Breaking $56 Billion Tesla Pay Package A Delaware judge invalidated billionaire Elon Musk’s $56 billion pay package from his electric car company Tesla on Tuesday, according to court documents.READ THE FULL REPORT

LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

END

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE//GLOBAL SHIPPING

French Shipping Giant Is Latest To Suspend Red Sea Transit, As Details Emerge Of US Destroyer’s ‘Close Call’

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 02:00 PM

French container shipping giant CMA CGM has announced suspension of all its Red Sea transit due to security risks, Bloomberg has reported Friday, adding to a growing list of major firms now deeming the area too unsafe.

The Bloomberg note additionally confirms that “CMA CGM will keep operating in the northern Red Sea but will not send its fleets through the southern part that is unavoidable for any vessel seeking to use Egypt’s Suez Canal to go between Europe and Asia.” With every addition of a shipping major, there’s yet further confirmation that the US-led ‘Operation Prosperity Guardian’ is failing.

“Hundreds of container ships and large numbers of oil tankers and commodity carriers have elected to avoid the area altogether,” Bloomberg underscores.

Until this week, CMA CGM had continued sending some vessels through the vital transit passage despite the almost daily Houthi missile and drone attacks, but which have been supported by French navy escort. But at this point it appears even the large Western warship presence isn’t enough.

This week, the US Navy saw its closest call yet when a Houthi-launched cruise missile came within a mere mile of the destroyer USS Gravely.

Details have only just emerged late in the week based on the accounts of several US defense officials. Presumably other longer range anti-air defenses failed as the missile was inbound close the ship. CNN describes:

In the past, these missiles have been intercepted by US destroyers in the area at a range of eight miles or more, the officials said. But the USS Gravely had to use its Close-In Weapon System (CIWS) for the first time since the US began intercepting the Houthi missiles late last year, which ultimately succeeded in downing the missile, officials said.

The CIWS, an automated machine gun designed for close-range intercepts, is one of the final defensive lines the ship has to shoot down an incoming missile when other layers of defense have failed to intercept it.

So this “last line of defense” which utilizes a 20 mm radar-guided canon had to be activated. The mounted weapon is a General Dynamics and Raytheon-produced ship defense system which engages closely inbound targets…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1752786864900108547&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Ffrench-shipping-giant-latest-suspend-red-sea-transit-details-emerge-us-destroyers&sessionId=ed45291dfaf0ea927efbb2b5831f996e1c827bae&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&width=550px

Fox News’ Pentagon correspondent Lucas Tomlinson has said this week marks the “first time in history CIWS (‘sea-wiz’) has been used in combat from a warship to destroy an incoming cruise missile seconds away from impact.

What has been clear based on other recent incidents is that Houthi drones and missiles are in some instances slipping through the Western navel coalitions ‘defense umbrella’.

We detailed a week ago how the US Navy essentially “lost a battle at sea” given that a missile landed in the water very close to a commercial vessel which was being escorted by no less than three US warships. During that time two American merchantmen – the Maersk Detroit and the Maersk Chesapeake – had been attempting to run the Bab al-Mandeb from south to north while being covered by the USS Gravely. But as with this fresh incident of the Gravely’s CIWS system having to engage at close range, one missile apparently slipped through in that Jan.17 encounter.

Below is a very different ‘close call’…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

1&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1752456476353015870&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Ffrench-shipping-giant-latest-suspend-red-sea-transit-details-emerge-us-destroyers&sessionId=ed45291dfaf0ea927efbb2b5831f996e1c827bae&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&width=550px

END

Only the blundering idiot Biden could think of this stupid export ban

(zerohedge)

Exxon CFO Calls Biden’s LNG Export License Halt A Big “Mistake”

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 01:20 PM

It’s been one week since the Biden administration, under the guise of saving the planet from an alleged imminent climate disaster, slapped Texas with a “temporary pause on pending decisions of Liquified Natural Gas exports.”

Industry insiders, Wall Street, and even some government officials have been absolutely dumbfounded as to why the president would pause new LNG approvals in Texas, considering it the third-largest exporter of LNG in the world. Plus, Europe, more than ever, needs US LNG following the Nord Stream incident.

However, it has become apparent that radicals in the White House punished Gov. Greg Abbott for defying the federal government over the border invasion.

Even Senate Energy Committee Chairman Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), a top critic within the Democratic Party on energy policies, recently vowed an investigation into the suspension of export licenses.

Earlier this week, Jack Fusco, CEO of Cheniere Energy Inc., was quoted at the Baker Hughes annual conference in Florence, Italy, via Bloomberg, saying that the Biden administration’s decision to pause approvals of LNG export licenses “was very confusing.” He pointed out that US LNG helps lower dirtier fossil fuel generation emissions.

Mike Sommers, president of the American Petroleum Institute, said the decision was “probably the worst energy decision that” Biden has made. He said, “Because of this pause, you’re probably going to see some investment that would have come to the United States, go elsewhere.”

Then, on Friday, Exxon Chief Financial Officer Kathy Mikells was quoted in an interview by Bloomberg as saying the pause in new LNG approvals is a “mistake” and will reduce climate-damaging emissions.

“Reducing production of LNG actually harms the world achieving net zero sooner rather than later,” Mikells said during an interview, adding, “It’s a mistake.”

Exxon and Qatar are constructing an LNG export terminal along the US Gulf Coast, called the Golden Pass project, which is slated for operation next year and has already secured all necessary government approvals, according to Mikells.

LNG is 50% cleaner than coal when used in power generation. It makes zero sense why the admin would hit Texas unless one were familiar with Biden’s weaponization of federal agencies against opponents.

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

CANADA//

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0882 UP .0008

USA/ YEN 146.52 UP .057 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2756 UP .0012

USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3378 DOWN .0007 (CDN DOLLAR UP 7 BASIS PTS)

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 40.59 PTS OR 1.46%

Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 32.65 PTS OR 0.21%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.44% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 32.65 PTS OR 0.21%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 40.59 PTS OR 1.46%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.44%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 146.56 OR 0.41%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEEN

Gold very early morning trading: 2056.

silver:$23.22

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 102.82 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.

FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.958% UP 8 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.658% DOWN 3 AND 0//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.165 UP 8 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.812 UP 8 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.2395 UP 8 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0798 DOWN 0.0076 or 76 basis points

USA/Japan: 148.26 UP 1.804 OR YEN DOWN 180 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2655 DOWN .0092 OR 92 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0073 OR 73 BASIS pts to 1.3458

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The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.1930

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2120)

TURKISH LIRA: 30.46 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.658…

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 18 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.040% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 4.235 UP 13 in basis points /12.00 PM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.380 UP 19 BASIS PTS.

Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 6.62 PTS OR 0.09%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 59.51 PTS OR 0.35%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 3.51 PTS OR 0.05%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 48.50 PTS OR 0.48%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 28.84 PTS OR 0.09%

WTI Oil price 72.40 12: EST

Brent Oil: 77,20 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 91.06; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 59//100

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2395 UP 8 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.9450 UP 14 BASIS POINTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0793 UP .0089 OR 89 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2637 DOWN .0108 or 108 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.9525 UP 16 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.655%

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148.34 UP 1.88//YEN DOWN 188 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3457 UP 74 CDN dollar DOWN 74 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 72.10

Brent OIL: 77.15

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 17 BASIS pts to 4.031%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 12 BASIS PTS to 4.223%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 18 PTS AT 4.370%

USA dollar index: 103.77 UP 89 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.50 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 91.05 DOWN 0 AND 58/100 roubles

GOLD 2037.20 3:30 PM

SILVER: 22.68 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 134.78 PTS OR 0.35%

NASDAQ UP 298.02 PTS OR 1,72%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 13,87 DOWN .01 PTS OR 0.072%

GLD: $188,61 down 1.80 OR 0.95%

SLV/ $20.75 .DOWN .46 OR 2,17%

end

USA AFFAIRS

TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Mega-Cap Tech Melts-Up Moar Despite Powell Punch-In-The-Face & Regional Bank Rout

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 04:00 PM

First things first, economic ‘animal spirits’ are back baby… and we know why (as we noted for months, the lagged effect of the massive loosening of financial conditions is now hitting and NOT doing The Fed’s job)…

Source: Bloomberg

But, away from The Fed’s Tyson-esque punch in the dove’s face, it was all about ‘The Magnificent 7’ – the basket of 7 stocks soared to new highs this week…

Source: Bloomberg

But the 7 is now 4…

Source: Bloomberg

As job gains… and productivity gains… and AI… and stuff… trumped a hawkish Powell and anything-but-soft-landing/goldilocks jobs data – that sent rate-cut expectations lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, the bank crisis is back as Regional banks suffered their worst week since May 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

As ‘whack-a-mole’ has begun again among the most levered…

Source: Bloomberg

But, away from the bank crisis (just ignore it, right), Apollo’s Slok notes, there are several current themes in markets

1. Soft landing/Goldilocks priced in everywhere, but probability of hard or no landing is not zero

2. Supply of US Treasuries growing, and Treasury auctions are getting more and more attention

3. Extreme concentration in S&P 500 driven by growing AI bubble

4. China slowing driven by deflating housing bubble, falling exports, and demographic headwinds

5. Germany in trouble because of China slowdown, costly energy transition, and housing disinflation

By the end of this week, 1 is dead, 2 is serious, 3 is worse, 4 remains a problem, and 5 is even uglier.

But none of that matters to tech which soared for the 13th week in the last 14 as Nasdaq rallied 1.5% this week. Small Caps were only index of the majors to close red…

MSFT is now bigger than AAPL, and AMZN is now bigger than GOOGL…

Source: Bloomberg

Today’s gain for META is the biggest single-session market value addition, eclipsing the $190 billion gains made by AAPL and AMZN in 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields all exploded higher today, with the short-end underperforming (2Y +17bps, 30Y +10bps) leaving the 2Y the only part of the curve higher on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

With the 10Y Yield back above 4.00% by Friday’s close…

Source: Bloomberg

And a big flattening of the yield cure (2s30s) back into inversion (erasing all the steepening from the Dec FOMC)…

Source: Bloomberg

Thanks to a huge surge in the dollar today, the week ended green for the greenback…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was higher on the week, chopping around the $43000 level…

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for the last 5 days…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended the week higher, despite a big drop today, erasing yesterday’s gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices ended the week lower (last week’s outsized gain completely erased). This was the worst week for WTI since early October…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, as one wise prognosticator noted.

Market is soaring because AI hasn’t displaced any jobs.

Market is soaring because every tech company is betting AI will displace millions of jobs.

And so, ‘you are here’…

Source: Bloomberg

…just remember, this didn’t end well last time.

MORNING TRADING//jobs report

Fairytales

January Jobs Shocker: Payrolls Explode By 353K, Double The Expected And Higher Than All Estimate As Wages Surge

BY TYLER DURDEN

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 08:55 AM

Well, we did warn readers that anyone hoping for a negative print in an election year would be disappointed, and moments ago the BLS proved us right.

With Wall Street expecting a continued declines in the pace of monthly growth, and consensus looking for a decline from last month’s 219K print to 185K, the BLS decided to once again show logic and common sense who is boss, and damn your mass tech layoff torpedoes…

from zerohedge

Dear BLS

@BLS_gov

, since you have trouble finding actual data, we’ve made it easy for you – here are the layoffs announced in the past few months: 1. Twitch: 35% of workforce

2. Hasbro: 20% of workforce

3. Spotify: 17% of workforce

4. Levi’s: 15% of workforce

5. Zerox: 15% of workforce

6. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce

7. Wayfair: 13% of workforce

8. Duolingo: 10% of workforce

9. Washington Post: 10% of workforce

10. eBay: 9% of workforce

11. Business Insider: 8% of workforce

12. Paypal: 7% of workforce

13. Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce

14. UPS: 2% of workforce

15. Blackrock: 3% of workforce

16. Citigroup: 20,000 employees

17. Pixar: 1,300 employees

8:22 PM · Jan 30, 2024

it reported that in January the US created a ridiculous 353K jobs…

… double the 185K expected, and higher than than the highest forecast estimate, which as a reminder was 300K. In fact, as shown below, this was a 4-sigma beat to expectations…

… and putting the beat in the context of the past year, it was an absolute blowout:

What is notable is that once again there was a huge dispersion between the Establishment and Household Surveys, and while the former indicated an increase of 353K, the latter reported a drop in Employment of 31K!

Clearly none of that mattered to the BLS which had just one mission: to make the economy look double super good-good, and it wasn’t just payrolls which blew away expectations, the unemployment rate also slipped, staying at 3.7%, vs expectations of an increase to 3.8%. That said, Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.6 percent), adult women (3.2 percent), teenagers (10.6 percent), Whites (3.4 percent), Blacks (5.3 percent), Asians (2.9 percent), and Hispanics (5.0 percent) showed little or no change in January.

More notable was the sudden jump in wages, with the BLS reporting that average hourly earnings increase 0.6% from December (and double the 0.3% estimated increase), rising 4.5% YoY, also blowing away estimates of a 4.1% increase.

But, in keeping with the endless gimmicks by the BLS, this is not because of an actual wage increase but because people literally worked less (the denominator in the average hourly earnings equation) as the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.2 hour to 34.1 hours in January and is down by 0.5 hour over the year, down to the lowest level seen in the depths of the covid crisis.

Developing

Developing.

end

And now the real story on the jobs report

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In Recent History

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 12:05 PM

On the surface, it was an blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in January the US unexpectedly added 353K “jobs” – the most since January 2023 (when the print was 482K compared to 131K) , double the consensus forecast of 185K and more than the highest Wall Street estimate (300K from Natixis). In fact, this was a 4-sigma beat to estimate, unheard of in the past year.

The headline data was stellar across the board, starting with the unemployment rate which once again failed to rise – denying expectations from “Sahm’s Rule” that a recession may have already started – all the way to average hourly earnings, which unexpectedly spiked from 4.1% (pre-revision) to 4.5%, the highest since last September, and a slap in the face to the Fed’s disinflation narrative…

… or it would be if one didn’t think of checking how the average rose: well, it turns out that, since average hourly earnings is a fraction, it did not rise due to a jump in actual wages but – since it is earnings over a period of time – “rose” because the BLS decided to sharply slash the number of estimated hours that everyone was working, from 34.3 to just 34.1, which may not sound like a lot until one realizes that the last time the workweek was this low was when the economy was shut down during covid. Excluding the covid lockdowns, one would have to go back to 2010 to find a workweek that was this anemic.

And speaking of revisions, we had a lot of those: in January, the BLS conducted its annual “annual re-benchmarking and update of seasonal adjustment factors.” Long story short, what was until December a decline in jobs has now been miraculously transformed into gains, as shown in the chart below.

For those asking, the revisions were unambiguously designed to give the impression that the labor market is slowing much less than it is. Consider this: before the revision, the average monthly job gain in 2021 was largely unchanged (606K pre-revision vs 604K post), and while the average monthly gain in 2022 was revised lower (from 399K to 377K), this was purposefully goalseeked to make 2023 appear stronger, and indeed the average monthly increase in 2023 has been revised from 225K to 255K.

Which would be great, if only it wasn’t almost entirely due to the BLS’s latest choice of seasonal adjustments, which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the revised BLS Payrolls number and the ADP payrolls show: the trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is actually far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

And speaking of seasonal adjustments, the January print was all seasonals, because while the seasonally adjusted payrolls was up 353K, the unadjusted was down 2.635 million, a 3 million jobs delta.

In other words, just a 10% error rate in the seasonal adjustment (roughly where it falls) would wipe out the entire gain and make January increase a decline. Then again, this is the case with every January jobs report, because as shown below, the actual change in jobs in the first month of the year is down anywhere between 2.5 million and 3 million!

But it’s more than just the Biden admin hanging its “success” on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge… such as the latest divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 353K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped again, this time by 31K (from 161.183K to 161.152K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has barely budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There’s more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of “new jobs” has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in January 2024, the US had 133.1 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that’s great… until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 870K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.890 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there’s even more, because just as we enter the peak of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in January, the number of native-born worker tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 1.9 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 2 months!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 4 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers, but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since July 2018!

*Source: St Louis Fed FRED* *Native Born and Foreign Born*

This is a huge issue – especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the border – and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened – i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why the Biden admin will do everything in his power to insure there is no official recession before November… and is why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get more and more ridiculous.

TRADING//

Gold & Bonds Dump, Dollar Jumps As Payrolls Spark Plunge In Rate-Cut Hopes

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 08:50 AM

The massive beat for payrolls, and resurgence in average hourly earnings, prompted a sharp response from markets with the dollar spiking, along with bond yields, as gold and the yield curve tumbled, as rate-cut expectations plunged…

A March cut is now priced at around 20% and 2024 cut expectations have dropped to 125bps…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar spiked back to unchanged on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields soared, led by the short-end (2Y +19bps). 10Y yields are back above 4.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold dumped…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin is also sliding, back below $43,000…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, all the US major equity markets are tumbling, led by Small Caps, back into the red from before the FOMC…

Now we all wait to see what Powell says on 60 Minutes…

II USA DATA

UMich Inflation Exp Slows, Sentiment Hits Highest Since 2021

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 10:14 AM

After soaring in October and November, and crashing back to earth in December, consensus estimates for UMich inflation expectations in January data were basically unchanged from December, but declined more than expected in the preliminary data. Today’s final print saw 1Y hld at 2.9% and 5-1Y Inflation expectations rise very modestly from prelim 2.8% to final 2.9%…

Source: Bloomberg

This lack of fear of inflation sent the sentiment indicators soaring 9.3pts to 79.0 (up from 78.8 prelim), the biggest monthly advance since 2005.

The share of consumers spontaneously mentioning prices of food and gasoline declined substantially this month as well. Meanwhile, concerns about high home prices remain unabated.

The current conditions gauge rose 8.6pts to 81.9, but was down from the 83.3 prelim print, and a measure of expectations climbed to 77.1, extending gains from the prelim 75.9 print. Both were the highest since 2021.

Source: Bloomberg

Every sub-index was higher on the month…

Source: Bloomberg

“After reserving judgment last fall about whether the slowdown in inflation would persist, consumers now feel assured that inflation will continue to soften,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

Buying Conditions rose for all cohorts (but were down from the prelim levels)…

Source: Bloomberg

Democrats’ confidence continued to surge but Republicans’ sentiment soured…

Source: Bloomberg

Stock market growth has generally provided some support to sentiment, particularly for consumers with larger portfolio holdings; this group posted a particularly large improvement in views this month. However, recent stock market trends are unlikely to be the dominant force behind the historically large and consensus gains in sentiment seen these past December and January.

As a comparison, the last time that stock markets reached historic highs, in October and November of 2021, sentiment edged down. This month, about 13% of consumers spontaneously mentioned stock markets during the interview, down from 16% a year ago. Consumers mentioning stock markets did report relatively higher levels of sentiment, but this group was not large enough to explain why sentiment soared as much as it did these past two months.

All sounds a bit self-fulfilling to us…

END

TUCKER CARLSON..

“This Is Not Friendly” – Bret Weinstein Shows Tucker Carlson How China & The UN Are Driving The Invasion Of America

BY TYLER DURDEN

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 10:45 AM

“…I came away with the sense that it’s probably literally both [a migration and an invasion]…”

Those are the chilling words that renowned biologist Bret Weinstein uses to describe what he found when he visited the Darien Gap in an attempt to understand just what is behind the sudden and overwhelming flood of migrants at the southern border of America.

The Darien Gap is a crucial yet perilous passage for migrants traveling from South America to North America that acts as a natural barrier (where, for 60 miles, the Pan-American highway ends and deadly jungle begins) that saw over half a million migrants traverse its challenging terrain last year alone.

“The jungle in the Darien Gap is some place that one does not go without careful preparation. It is quite dangerous… They’re sleeping on the ground, and so they get hypothermia. It’s extremely slippery.”

In this chilling interview with Tucker Carlson – about a topic that apparently no actual reporter is willing to investigate and write about – Weinstein expolains that his journey to the Darien Gap was spurred by his interest in the unexplained aspects of mass migration, and the findings of Michael Yon, a former Green Beret turned investigative journalist.

“You wonder why there’s not a permanent team of New York Times reporters there trying to tell the rest of us what exactly is happening.”

Through their journey, Weinstein and Yon uncovered a complex narrative involving not political asylum-seekers, but economic migrants and potentially orchestrated movements that appear coordinated by various NGOs and, of particular concern, the Chinese migrant camps they encountered.

The first camp that Weinstein described visiting was full of migrants who were very open to discussing their stories with travelers, and looked superficially like the migration of Central Americans that we are constantly told about.

“Many of them are South American, but that is by no means the whole story. People are coming from the Middle East. We met Afghans. We met people from the Caribbean, Haitians. There are people from Yemen, Iran. It’s shocking really.”

But, the supranational authorities were all evident:

“You see, the hallmark of the international community. You see NGO emblems all over the place, proudly American flags. They’ve paid for the water system, the toilets that are there. The United States government is facilitating this economic migration. And it’s unmistakable, as is an organization called the IOM, which is the International Organization for Migration. It’s a branch of the UN.

And if you read their charter, you will discover that this organization believes that migration is an inherently good thing, that it’s always good. And so they see it as their job to bring it about to facilitate it.

And in this case, that’s particularly tragic because their desire to induce people to migrate is causing people who are woefully unprepared for the Darien Gap to try to make that journey. And, the the humanitarian tragedy is, is immense.“

Weinstein then pivoted to contrast that experience with a second one, highlighting for Carlson how it had been “built as a transit camp” for “almost” all Chinese migrants.

“The SENAFRONT, the Panamanian border control, actually forbid us to go into the camp. So we had to stay on the outside of it. We were also forbidden to photograph it. So what photographs we have were taken covertly,” Weinstein explained.

“These, Chinese folks who are overwhelmingly male, military age… It is not a friendly migration… This felt like people who did not want to share information, because it would be a mistake to do so.”

Weinstein criticizes the lack of distinction made between political refugees and economic migrants at the US border, suggesting that the current policy framework is inadvertently supporting an unsustainable and potentially exploitative system.

This system, he notes, not only undermines the economic well-being of Americans but also contributes to a humanitarian crisis that is largely ignored by mainstream media and political discourse.

Tuckr Carlson concludes with words to live by:

“I think we have to stop punishing ourselves for considering things that one seems crazy. I’m getting that tattooed.”

Watch the interview here:https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/not-friendly-bret-weinstein-shows-tucker-carlson-how-china-un-are-driving-invesion

…and read the full transcript here at TCN.

Finally, following the interview, @KanekoaTheGreat wrote a post on X following the thread that Weintein pulled about this being potentially orchestrated…

America’s illegal immigration crisis is shattering century-old records with alarming numbers.

2023: 3,201,144
2022: 2,766,582
2021: 1,956,519
2020: 405,036
2019: 859,501
2018: 404,142
2017: 310,531
2016: 415,816
2015: 337,117
2014: 486,651
2013: 420,789
2012: 364,768
2011: 340,252
2010: 463,382

On President Biden’s inaugural day, he introduced policies that incentivize illegal immigration:

Paused Deportations
Suspended “Remain in Mexico”
Stopped Border Wall Construction

Since Biden’s policy changes, over 8 million people have illegally entered the country, with millions more slipping past border patrol undetected.

This surge in illegal immigration is a national security crisis, costing American taxpayers hundreds of billions per year.

Major U.S. cities, grappling with the escalating financial burden, are slashing budgets for essential services such as fire, police, and education.

President Biden holds the power to halt this crisis that is draining America’s resources and endangering its citizens.

The solution is as simple as the actions that led to this crisis—Biden should use his pen to reverse his executive orders.

“No great nation can be in a position where they can’t control their borders. It matters how you control your borders. Not just for immigration, but it matters for drugs, terror, and a whole range of things.”

— Joe Biden

“We simply cannot allow people to pour into the United States undetected, undocumented, unchecked, and circumventing the line of people who are waiting patiently, diligently, and lawfully to become immigrants in this country.”

— Barack Obama

“All Americans, not only in the States most heavily affected but in every place in this country, are rightly disturbed by the large numbers of illegal aliens entering our country. The jobs they hold might otherwise be held by citizens or legal immigrants. The public service they use imposes burdens on our taxpayers. That’s why our administration has moved aggressively to secure our borders by hiring a record number of new border guards, by deporting twice as many criminal aliens as ever before, by cracking down on illegal hiring, and by barring welfare benefits to illegal aliens.”

— Bill Clinton

III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES

This should be interesting!!

(EpochTimes)

COVID-Era Back-Rent Now Due In Los Angeles

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 01:40 PM

Authored by Rudy Blalock via The Epoch Times,

Starting Feb. 1, Los Angeles renters owe, in full, any unpaid rent between Oct. 1, 2021, and January 31, 2023, ending a pandemic-era policy.

In a statement issued Tuesday, Mayor Karen Bass assured Angelenos there are abundant resources to help renters in arrears.

“We must do all that we can to prevent people from falling into homelessness in the first place,” she said.

“Together with locked arms, we will continue our work to provide resources for the people of Los Angeles.”

According to the statement on the city’s website, for renters who may lose their rental now if they don’t pay back what’s owed, the Los Angeles Housing Department can help direct them to city resources, such as StayHoused LA—which offers free legal services—and encouraged those affected to “read their paperwork carefully” of any three-day eviction notices they receive, and file an answer within five days to avoid eviction.

Last week the Los Angeles City Council voted to continue eviction protections for those who are approved for rent relief and are awaiting funds, with the latest round—funded by the voter-approved 2022 Measure ULA, which adds a tax on home sales over $5 million to fund affordable housing and help prevent homelessness—totaling $30 million. So far only $7.9 million has been distributed, according to media reports.

Los Angeles landlords alone are owed an estimated $898 million, according to a recent analysis by Oakland-based Policy Link, a research organization, and the USC Equity Research Institute, which focuses on advancing racial and economic equity nationwide.

Apartment Association of Greater Los Angeles President Daniel Yukelson told The Epoch Times now that the deadline is here for those who owe back rent there shouldn’t be more eviction filings, as most tenants who owe have either moved or are now negotiating with landlords to settle their debt.

He said a rise in evictions is also unlikely “because owners are so financially strapped today. That’s the last thing that they want to do,” noting that many small mom-and-pop landlords are already struggling to stay afloat and don’t want to take on legal fees.

Because Los Angeles tenants can get free legal aid and their attorneys can fight for them at no cost, such can drag out the process costing the landlord tens of thousands in legal fees.

“Tenants get free attorneys, and these attorneys just drag the process along. They ask for a jury trial; they ask for continuance on continuance. Any minor thing that they could think of,” he said.

According to Mr. Yukelson, an eviction in Los Angeles can cost property owners as much as $50,000 and nearly a year in time, after everything is all said and done, so evictions are a last option for them, usually.

“These are very expensive endeavors,” he said.

Instead of the city of Los Angeles funding the potential for long-dragged-out legal affairs, Mr. Yukelson said it could save money, instead, by giving tenants what they owe to keep a roof over their head.

“They’re spending hundreds of dollars an hour on these private attorneys … when all the tenants need is a couple $1,000 just to get them over the hump,” he said.

Demonstrators call for a rent strike during the COVID-19 pandemic as they pass City Hall in Los Angeles on May 1, 2020. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)

According to data compiled by City Controller Kenneth Mejia, landlords sent an estimated 77,000 notices to Los Angeles renters from last February to December with 96 percent of such for overdue rent, with the average rent owed about $3,774. Hollywood had the most with over 5,000 notices followed by the Fairfax District with over 3,800.

In Los Angeles, eviction notices may only be filed for renters who owe at least one month of fair market rent, which varies by zip code ranging from around $2,000 in South Los Angeles to nearly $4,000 in the Fairfax, Melrose, Wilshire-La Brea area.

According to Mr. Mejia’s analysis, there were around 12,200 eviction notices filed where the rent owed was below one’s fair market monthly rent, which disqualifies the eviction.

Jan. 31 also marked the last day landlords with properties built before 1978 were prohibited from rent increases, a rule that has been in place since March 2020. Now landlords on those properties can increase the rent, until June 30, between 4 percent and 6 percent.

The Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors last year capped rent increase at 3 percent on rentals in unincorporated areas, which expired at the end of the year. The rent cap has now been extended until June 30, limiting increases to 4 percent.

end

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM…

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON

END

SWAMP STORIES

amazing!1

75% Of House Democrats Voted Against Deporting Criminal Migrants Who Commit Social Security Fraud

THURSDAY, FEB 01, 2024 – 08:00 PM

Democrats talk a big game about ‘Republican attacks on Social Security,’ but 75% of House Dems just voted against deporting migrants who commit Social Security fraud.

Introduced by Rep. Tom McClintock (R-CA) in December, H.R. 6678 passed with 172 “yea” votes, and 155 “nay” votes – all Democrats, with 55 of them voting with the Republicans.

As former Trump adviser and head of the America First Legal Foundation Stephen Miller posted on X, “155 HOUSE DEMOCRATS — 75% OF THEIR CONFERENCE — JUST VOTED AGAINST DEPORTING CRIMINAL MIGRANTS WHO COMMIT SOCIAL SECURITY FRAUD AND ROB OUR SENIORS.”

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

“They’d rather protect illegal aliens than our seniors,” said the House Judiciary Committee in a Thursday post on X.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

security&sessionId=4bafdeb2bf0a4ebda76ae3658a0a1aae2cce4377&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&width=550px

Meanwhile, 150 Democrats also voted against legislation that would quickly deport illegal aliens who drive drunk.

“I am appalled to see a majority of Democrats in the House of Representatives voting to prevent illegal aliens who endanger the lives of American citizens by drunk driving from being deported. Americans deserve leaders who put their safety and prosperity first,” said Rep. August Pfluger (R-TX).

According to OA Online, “H.R. 6976, the Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act, introduced by Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL), closes a gaping loophole in U.S. immigration law related to drunk driving. Because there is neither a ground of inadmissibility nor a ground of removability explicitly related to driving under the influence (DUI) of alcohol or drugs, criminal aliens currently can escape accountability for their reckless actions and be free to re-offend and endanger communities. By creating a ground of inadmissibility and a ground of removability for aliens who have committed DUI offenses, this legislation provides long-awaited and much-needed reforms to safeguard American communities.“

According to Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), the bill would create a “separate but unequal” system of justice for immigrants.

END

It’s Biden Vs Texas (And Texas Is Right)

THURSDAY, FEB 01, 2024 – 09:40 PM

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

In what can only be a surprising move, Texas Governor Greg Abbott has openly defied the White House and invoked Article 1 section 10 of the US constitution as a reason to ignore the Biden Administration’s demand that the State government cease erecting a border barrier along the Texas-Mexico border.

For months, the federal government has ratcheted up threats against the state government and condemned Texas for erecting razor-wire barriers and other impediments to migration. The White House has sued to force the demolition of these barriers in further efforts to increase foreign migration into Texas. Texas took legal action of its own against the federal order. However, on Monday, the US Supreme Court ruled that the Federal government could proceed with its plans to cut the razor-wire barrier.

Texas officials, however, have refused to grant federal agents access to the border. This extends a Texas policy that has essentially ejected federal personnel from a 2.5 mile stretch of the Rio Grande in Eagle Pass which has been used extensively by coyotes, cartels, and migrants as an entry point into the US.

The situation continues to escalate, and now Washington Democrats are demanding that Biden “take control” of the National Guard and turn it against the state government.

The situation is shocking because Republican-controlled state and local governments rarely show any willingness to oppose federal usurpations of local authority. For decades, the standard operating procedure of Republicans has been to instantly surrender the second anyone in Washington utters the phrase “supremacy clause” or the Supreme Court makes a ruling. Democrats, on the other hand, routinely scoff at federal supremacy, such as with “sanctuary cities.”

This is a rare instance in which a Republican-controlled state government has not immediately bent the knee in the name of national unity and “law and order.”

So, what exactly does the Texas governor’s declaration say? Overall, it makes the case that the Biden administration has been ignoring federal immigration laws and illegally withdrawing border-control operations from the Texas-Mexico border. Abbott concludes:

Under President Biden’s lawless border policies, more than 6 million illegal immigrants have crossed our southern border in just 3 years. That is more than the population of 33 different States in this country. This illegal refusal to protect the States has inflicted unprecedented harm on the People all across the United States.

If that were all, we’d just chalk this up to a document that amounts to little more than a letter to the editor. But then Abbott says that the US Constitution provides a remedy for the situation:

the Framers included both Article IV, § 4, which promises that the federal government “shall protect each [State] against invasion,” and Article I, § 10, Clause 3, which acknowledges “the States’ sovereign interest in protecting their borders.

The final paragraph is where it gets interesting. Abbott writes:

The failure of the Biden Administration to fulfill the duties imposed by Article IV, § 4 has triggered Article I, § 10, Clause 3, which reserves to this State the right of self-defense. For these reasons, I have already declared an invasion under Article I, § 10, Clause 3 to invoke Texas’s constitutional authority to defend and protect itself. That authority is the supreme law of the land and supersedes any federal statutes to the contrary. The Texas National Guard, the Texas Department of Public Safety, and other Texas personnel are acting on that authority, as well as state law, to secure the Texas border.

Abbott is essentially saying that federal supremacy in this case has been rendered null and void by a federal refusal to enforce federal law.

Can he get away with it?

For clarity, let’s look at Article 1, section 10. It reads:

No State shall, without the Consent of Congress, lay any Duty of Tonnage, keep Troops, or Ships of War in time of Peace, enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State, or with a foreign Power, or engage in War, unless actually invaded, or in such imminent Danger as will not admit of delay.

The key phrase here is “unless actually invaded.” Whether or not the current flood of migrants across the border constitutes “invasion,” as stated here, is perhaps debatable. However, what is self-evident here is that it is up to the state government to determine for itself whether or not the state is being invaded. After all, the whole point of the section is to grant certain powers to states outside the authority of the federal government. If the federal government also gets to determine for itself whether or not the state is being invaded, then the section is pointless.

So, an honest reading of this text ought to preclude the Biden administration or US Supreme Court coming back and saying “you’re not being invaded, now do what we say.”

The governor’s letter is also well-worded in the way that it declares the state’s actions to be directly authorized by the US constitution and therefore not subject to mere federal statutes. This will be useful in resisting any federal attempts to federalize the Texas National Guard. That is, if the Biden administration attempts to take control of the Guard, as it is generally authorized to do in federal law, Abbott could say “our right to command the National Guard under Article 1, Sec 10 supersedes your claim to federalize the Guard under federal statute.”

After all, the details of the president’s authority to “call forth the militia” relies primarily on federal statutes, and not on the constitution. Historically, state governments have had wide latitude to veto presidential attempts to use state troops. Those state veto powers were largely abolished in the past fifty years by conservatives, Cold Warriors, and other Pentagon simps.

The way the Abbott declaration is worded, he could be making a case that he has constitutional authority over presidential attempts to seize control of the National Guard.

The Situation Has Moved Beyond Legal Arguments

As the situation progresses, we are likely to hear much from legal scholars about what court said this and what judicial text said that. Yet, in crises situations like the current one, legal rulings will grow increasingly irrelevant. Politics and public opinion will take over as the real criteria for what is feasible for each side.

At this point, the Biden Administration is clearly motivated to move into Texas, take control of the situation, and throw the border open. In an election year, however, this will be problematic for Biden with many constituencies. Many will see the situation for what it is: a powerful Washington establishment, with no skin in the game in southern Texas, shows up to tell the locals that they are hereby ordered to house limitless numbers of unscreened migrants in their own neighborhoods, and for the taxpayers to cover the cost. With the legacy media on his side, Biden may be able to get away with it.

Here’s what should happen, though: any federal agents that attempt to intervene with state agents on the border should be arrested and tried for obstruction and trespassing under Texas law. Federal attempts to take control of the National Guard should be declared non-starters by the governor under Section 1, Article 10. Federal agents should be treated as the criminals they are. After all, the ATF, FBI, federal Border Control, NSA, and countless federal regulators are all unconstitutional agents with no authorization within the constitution itself. (Federal control over immigration is an invention of the late nineteenth century.)

It’s unclear what Washington’s next move would be. After all, the feds are used to unquestioning obedience from state governments. It is a sure thing that the White House would immediately seek out retaliatory action, such as denying Texans access to federal funds—which Texans already paid for through their payroll and income taxes. The Defense Department will send its stooge generals to threaten state authorities for not taking orders from the Pentagon—in a manner similar to its opposition to the Defend the Guard bills.

If the Supreme Court keeps issuing rulings that are subsequently ignored, then the SCOTUS will just make itself look ridiculous.

It will likely avoid this, and thus the situation will rest on political realities, not legal ones.

What is nice to see, however, is that the aura of authority around the central government is gradually being pierced and destroyed. Such things are long overdue.

END

Jim Jordan Whips Out Subpoena, Devastates Fani

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 10:00 AM

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) has slapped a subpoena on Fulton County, Georgia, District Attorney Fani Willis for failing to comply with document requests related to allegations that Willis fired a whistleblower who tried to stop a top campaign aide from misusing federal funds.

A former employee in the DA’s office told Willis that she was demoted after she warned one of Willis’ campaign aides against misusing federal grant funding earmarked for a youth gang outreach program, according to a leaked recording of the call reported by the Washington Free Beacon.

As the Beacon‘s Andrew Kerr reported on Wednesday:

Less than a year into her tenure as Fulton County district attorney, in 2021, Willis met with Amanda Timpson, an employee in the district attorney’s office responsible for giving nonviolent juvenile offenders “alternatives to the juvenile court system.” During their conversation, a recording of which was reviewed by the Washington Free Beacon, Timpson claimed to Willis that she had been demoted after attempting to stop a top Willis campaign aide from misusing federal grant money meant for a youth gang prevention initiative.

According to Timpson, the aide, Michael Cuffee, planned to use part of a $488,000 federal grant—earmarked for the creation of a Center of Youth Empowerment and Gang Prevention—to pay for “swag,” computers, and travel.

“He wanted to do things with grants that were impossible, and I kept telling him, like, ‘We can’t do that,'” he told Willis in a Nov. 19, 2021 meeting. “He told everybody … ‘We’re going to get MacBooks, we’re going to get swag, we’re going to use it for travel.’ I said, ‘You cannot do that, it’s a very, very specific grant.’“

The subpoena, first reported by NBC News, is part of a broader probe by Jordan and his House Republican colleagues into whether Willis used federal funds while investigating former President Donald Trump, who she indicted last year on charges of attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in Georgia.

In a Friday letter, Jordan accuses Willis of failure to comply with two earlier document requests pertaining to her office’s use of federal grant funds, and demands that she provides said documents, plus communications, “referring or relating to the Fulton County District Attorney’s Office’s receipt and use of federal funds,” and “referring or relating to any allegations of the misuse of federal funds.”

Willis’ office has condemned Jordan’s requests, writing last year in a letter to him that there is “no justification in the Constitution for Congress to interfere with a state criminal matter.”

Jordan’s push for documents follows allegations that the district attorney’s office retaliated against an employee who tried to stop what she said was misuse of Justice Department grant funding by a top Willis campaign aide.

According to Jordan, “Instead of using these federal grant funds for the intended purpose of helping at-risk youths, your office sought to use the grant funds to ‘get Macbooks … swag … [and] use it for travel,’” adding “Moreover, the whistleblower’s direct supervisor stated that these planned expenditures ‘were part of [your] vision.’”

“These allegations raise serious concerns about whether you were appropriately supervising the expenditure of federal grant funding allocated to your office and whether you took actions to conceal your office’s unlawful use of federal funds.”

When will it end with Fani? Who will get to the bottom of this?

END

Trump Election Case Now On Hold For 50 Days Amid Immunity Appeal

BY TYLER DURDEN

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 03:45 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former President Donald Trump’s federal election case has been on hold for 50 days as he appeals to a higher court on grounds that he is immune from prosecution.

On Dec. 13, 2023, U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan issued a pause in the election case in Washington and has signaled, on at least two occasions, that the March trial date that was scheduled last year will likely not hold. The judge also halted the submission of any major motions by President Trump’s attorneys and federal prosecutors.

The case will not resume until the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals resolves the question of whether the former president is immune from criminal prosecution. His attorneys have argued that this is because his activity after the 2020 election was part of his official duties.

When the appeals court, which hasn’t signaled when it will issue an order, renders its decision, President Trump will likely appeal the matter to the U.S. Supreme Court. If that happens, it’s not clear when the election case will resume.

“The timing of a decision by the panel will indeed be a critical determinant of whether the case can go forward expeditiously, Daniel Richman, a Columbia University law professor, told Politico this week. “Quite a few stars would have to align before the trial can proceed,” he added.

Matthew Seligman, a former appeals court law clerk who filed a separate court motion in the immunity case, told the outlet that it’s not clear when the D.C. appeals court will issue a decision. There’s no sign that “we’re really close to a point where the judges in the majority would consider taking whatever measures they could … and it’s not clear what those are,” he said.

D.C. Appeals Court Judge Karen Henderson, the senior judge on the panel, has said she opposes taking the immunity case on an expedited timeline. She also has the right to write the majority opinion if she is part of the majority, as she is the most senior judge on the panel. If she dissents, the judge could also delay the ruling for weeks, the article noted.

Other Activity

In January, Judge Chutkan signaled for a second time that there is a good chance the Trump trial date will likely be postponed to a later date. In a case involving a Jan. 6 defendant, she scheduled a trial for that individual for early April.

Special prosecutor Jack Smith, who brought the charges against the former president, has said that President Trump’s trial will likely take four to six weeks to complete, meaning that the March 4 date will very likely push up against or even conflict with the Jan. 6 defendant’s trial.

Weeks before that order, the U.S. district judge wrote that the March 4 date was meant to provide both the Trump team and the Smith team with more time to prepare. She also adopted President Trump’s lawyers’ recommendations to prevent both the defense and prosecution from issuing new “further substantive pretrial motions without first seeking leave from the court” and that the former president “forfeits no arguments or rights by choosing not to respond at this time.”

Judge Chutkan wrote in January that the Trump team could file more objections to any recent court motions made by the special counsel, even if the D.C. Court of Appeals sends the case back to her jurisdiction.

Several weeks ago, multiple legal analysts said that the March 4 trial start appears to be unlikely at that point. One, a former federal prosecutor, has said it appears unlikely that the trial will start before the November 2024 election due to the appeals process.

“That process will take months, and unless Judge Chutkan lifts the stay, there is a possibility that Trump’s trial does not happen before the November election. The other trial scheduled in April is a reflection of that reality,” Neama Rahmani, the head of West Coast Trial Lawyers, said.

Prosecutors acknowledged in December that the case had been paused, but they said the government would “continue to meet its own deadlines as previously determined” by the court “to promote the prompt resumption of the pretrial schedule” if and when the case returns to Judge Chutkan.

President Trump is accused of conspiring to overturn the 2020 election, which he has vehemently denied. It is one of four criminal cases the Republican candidate is facing as he vies to return to the White House this year.

He has pleaded not guilty to the four cases against him, arguing that the charges were brought to denigrate him politically.

He also faces a civil lawsuit brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James and was recently ordered by a jury to pay writer E. Jean Carroll $83 million in a defamation case she brought against him. President Trump also denied the accusations made in that case.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

THE KING REPORT

Goldman predicted a March rate cut. Now, Goldie is forecasting four consecutive rate cuts, starting in May. It really is Groundhog Day!

As expected, the Bank of England kept rates unchanged. However, Governor Bailey was more hawkish than expected. Bailley, echoing the Fed and Powell, said, “We need to see more evidence that inflation is set to fall all the way to the 2% target and stay there before we can lower interest rates.”

Bloomberg @business: “We’re not making predictions at this point.” The Bank of England held interest rates at 5.25%, and Governor Andrew Bailey says there are risks that inflation in the UK will persist. https://bloom.bg/3SHAYYb

The usual suspects spun Bailey’s remarks are being dovish. The cable’s (pound) robust rally after Bailley’s remarks debunks the usual suspects’ spin.

CNBC: Bank of England chief hints the market could be getting it right on rate cuts

Bank of England opens the door to rate cuts this year
Mr. Bailey said the MPC was now looking for evidence of a sustained fall in inflation that could lay the groundwork for “lower rates”… Two MPC members, Jonathan Haskel and Catherine Mann, continued to vote for rates to rise to 5.5pc, leaving the MPC in a three-way split…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-england-opens-door-rate-121641560.html

A $560 Billion Property Warning Hits Banks from NY to Tokyo – BBG
The US commercial real estate market has been in turmoil since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. But New York Community Bancorp and Japan’s Aozora Bank Ltd. delivered a reminder that some lenders are only just beginning to feel the pain…
     Tokyo-based Aozora plunged more than 20% after warning of US commercial-property losses and Frankfurt’s Deutsche Bank AG more than quadrupled its US real estate loss provisions…
     Banks are facing roughly $560 billion in commercial real estate maturities by the end of 2025, according to commercial real estate data provider Trepp, representing more than half of the total property debt coming due over that period. Regional lenders in particular are more exposed to the industry…  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ny-community-bancorp-flashes-560-005309222.html

Bonds soared on resurrected regional bank concerns.

The S&P Global US Mfg. PMI for January rose to 50.7 from the expected and prior 50.3.

The January ISM Manufacturing gauge increased to 49.1 from 47.1; 47.2 was expected. New Orders jumped to 52.5 from the prior 47; 48.2 was expected. This is the largest increase in New Orders since May 2022. However, Prices Paid soared to 52.9 from 45.2; 46.9 was consensus. Most everyone ignored the sizable jump in Prices Paid.

ESHs rallied from the Nikkei opening until they hit 4886.00 at 21:33 ET. They then sank into the China close, hitting 4873.75 at 2:06 ET. The rally for the European opening took ESHs to 4885.50 at 3:27 ET. ESHs traded sideways until they broke higher after 5 ET. Thereafter, ESHs gyrated wildly.

After the 8 ET US bond market opening ESHs went berserk. They gyrated wildly in an increasing range. After tumbling 25 handles from 10:30 ET to 11:12 ET, ESHs went nearly vertical, soaring from 4874.50 to a daily high of 4908.00 at 12:06 ET.   There was no news; however, Fangs were soaring on speculative buying for Amazon, Apple, and Meta’s results that were due after the close.

Stocks got another boost at 12:37 ET on this: Qatar Says Israel Agrees to Ceasefire: Al Jazeera – BBG

ESHs zoomed to a new daily high of 4915.50 at 12:54 ET. When Al Jazeera deleted its tweet about a ceasefire – and Hamas confirmed that there was no ceasefire, ESHs retreated to 4899.00 at 13:04 ET.

The explosive rally had little to do with an Israel-Hamas ceasefire. The aggressive buying was traders – and possibly those with nonpublic info – getting long for Amazon, Apple, and Meta’s results.

ESHs plodded higher, hitting a daily high of 4929.25 at 16:00 ET.

Positive aspects of previous session
Stocks soared on buying ahead of Amazon, Apple, and Meta’s results – and start of February bias

Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds soared on resurfaced US regional banking concerns and manic short covering

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Commodities tumbled. Was it recession angst or something else?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4888.91
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4906.97; 4853.52

The United States assessed that Iran manufactured the drone that slammed into a US base in Jordan over the weekend, killing three US soldiers and wounding more than 40… https://t.co/TrkZS9FUzc

@charliebilello: Magnificent 7 January Returns… (S&P 500: +1.6%) Nvidia: +24.2%

Meta: +10.2%
Microsoft: +5.7%
Amazon: +2.2%
Google: +0.3%
Apple: -4.2%
Tesla: -24.6%

NY Fed: HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT REPORT
Household Debt Rises to $17.29 Trillion Led by Mortgage, Credit Card, and Student Loan Balances
Total household debt rose by 1.3 percent to reach $17.29 trillion in the third quarter of 2023… Mortgage balances increased to $12.14 trillion, credit card balances to $1.08 trillion, and student loan balances to $1.6 trillion. Auto loan balances increased to $1.6 trillion, continuing the upward trajectory seen since 2011. Other balances, which include retail credit cards and other consumer loans, were effectively flat at $0.53 trillion. Delinquency transition rates increased for most debt types, except for student loans…
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html

House approves $80 billion bipartisan tax relief bill expanding credits
The Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024 would expand the child tax credit (CTC) to $3,600 per child form the current $2,000. It would further create low-income housing credits and restore research and development deductions, according to ABC News.
    The bill initially provoked frustrations from moderate New York Republicans due to its exclusion of State and Local Tax (SALT) provisions…
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/holdhouse-approves-80-billion-bipartisan-tax-relief-bill-expanding-credits

Fox’s @ChadPergram: House approves bipartisan tax cut bill, 357-70. Needed 2/3. With 427 mbrs voting, they needed 285 yeas. But big story here is that, again, more Dems voted for the bill than Republicans. 188 Dem yeas. 169 GOP yeas

@Mayhem4Markets: January was the second-highest total number of layoffs (-20% y/y) and lowest planned hiring level for the month of January in data going back to 2009, according to the Challenger Job Cuts Report. But sure, everything seems totally amazing.

@AtlantaFed: On February 1, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2024 is 4.2%.  (How can the Fed ease with 4.2% GDP and financial conditions historically easy?) https://bit.ly/32EYojR

Fed Balance Sheet: -$47.106B, Treasuries: -$29.581B, MBS: -$11.488B; Reserves at the Fed: -$453m

After the close Meta reported EPS of 5.33 (4.91 exp.), Revenue of $40.11B ($39.01B exp.) and boosted its share buyback program by $50B. Meta forecast Q1 Revenue of $34.5B to $37B; $33.634B was consensus. Meta was +15.32% at 16:50 ET. Meta hit a low of 88.09 on November 4, 2022. It hit a high of 455.87 in after-hour trading – and numerous people believe that the Fed should ease!

Amazon reported EPS of 1.00 (.78 exp.) and Net Sales of $169.96B ($166.21B exp.) Amazon sees Q1 Net Sales at $138B to $143.5B; $142.01B consensus.  Amazon was +9.37% at 16:50 ET.

Apple reported EPS of 2.18; (2.11 exp.); Q1 Revenue of $119.58B; ($117.97B exp.); iPhone Revenue of $69.7B ($68.55 exp.), Greater China Revenue of $20.82B ($23.5B exp.). APPL initially jumped 2.68% but reversed on the disappointing China Revenue to a 2.8% loss. (After hour high 191.81, low 181.52)

The market action on Thursday strongly suggests that someone knew what Meta and Amazon would report – and they aggressively and blatantly acted on it!
Today – The January Employment Report will dictate early trading. Barring a significant deviation from the expected 185k NFP, any movement should be transitory. Team Obama-Biden wants a stronger-than-reality NFP, and they usually concoct one. Discerning traders and investors will focus on seasonal adjustments, any discrepancy with Household ‘Employed’, and NFP revisions. With Fang results over, some type of equity top is a high probability. PS – Powell will be on “60 Minutes” on Sunday night.

Expected Economic Data: Feb NFP 185k, Mfg. 3k, Rate 3.8%, Wages 0.3% m/m & 4.1% y/y, Workweek 34.3, Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6%; Jan UM Sentiment 79, Current Conditions 83.5, Expectations 76, 1-year Inflation 2.9%, 5-10-year Inflation 2.8%; Dec Factory Orders 0.2% m/m, Ex-Trans 0.2%; Dec Durable Goods 0.0% m/m, Ex-Trans 0.6% m/m

Expected earnings: CVX 3.22, AON 4.07, BMY 1.52, XOM 2.22, CI 6.53, GWW 8.11

ESHs are +29.75 (on AMZN & META) and USHs are -13/32 at 20:55 ET.

S&P Index 50-day MA: 4719; 100-day MA: 4529; 150-day MA: 4512; 200-day MA: 4438
DJIA 50-day MA: 37,071; 100-day MA: 35,457; 150-day MA: 35,234; 200-day MA: 34,828
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4026.83 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4583.55 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4960.45 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4917.68 triggers a buy signal

Biden will issue executive order targeting Israel settlers who attack Palestinians in West Bank, AP sources say – The move is rare step against America’s closest ally in the Mideast… The order will give the Treasury Department the authority to impose financial sanctions on settlers, but is not meant to target U.S. citizens. A substantial number of the settlers in the West Bank hold U.S. citizenship…
    The new executive order comes as Biden was set to visit Michigan on Thursday to rally support from union members in a key presidential battleground state. The Democratic president has faced sharp criticism from Arab and Muslim leaders over his handling of the war with Hamas, and the shadow of the conflict has some Democrats worrying that it could have a major effect on the outcome in the November election. The president’s campaign team has already seen alarming signs of the growing rift with Michigan’s Arab American community…  https://t.co/YYnDPuUQd7

@FoxNews: Black faith leaders say Biden is bleeding Black votes over Israel-Hamas war: ‘Administration has lost its way’

Biden again wrongly suggests son Beau died from Iraq War in call with grieving soldier’s family https://trib.al/6n9sdtu

@pepesgrandma: Biden corruption gone wild! Judge Kathleen McCormick, that ruled against Elon Musk’s Tesla salary, was involved with the Bidens!  Kathaleen was on the committee of the Delaware Community Foundation. This foundation just so happened to have created the Beau Biden Foundation for the Protection of Children in honor of Biden’s life and work protecting youth.
   The Beau Biden Foundation’s board members include Hallie Biden, Hunter Biden and Ashley Biden. Joe Biden himself has promoted the charity… Also Burisma made a transfer on June 11, 2015 to “DELAWARE COMMUNITY FOUNDATION, BEAU” for $20,000…
https://twitter.com/pepesgrandma/status/1753062181057528049?s=02

@KanekoaTheGreat: Judge Kathaleen McCormick rescinded Elon Musk’s $55 billion Tesla compensation package, overturning the company’s board and 80% of its shareholders. McCormick also ruled against @elonmusk during his Twitter acquisition.
    Before becoming the head of the Delaware Chancery Court, McCormick worked at a Delaware law firm called Young Conaway. This firm and its employees have been major donors to President Joe Biden for decades. In 2016, Hunter Biden hosted a gubernatorial campaign event for Congressman John Carney, with then-Vice President Joe Biden as the guest speaker.
    This event took place at the Law Offices of Young Conaway in Wilmington, Delaware.  Carney, a close friend of Joe Biden for the last four decades, later became governor and nominated Kathaleen McCormick, a partner at Young Conaway, to her position on the Delaware Chancery Court.
    In a March 2018 email, Hunter Biden claimed to personally know every judge on the Delaware Chancery Court while threatening legal action against his Chinese business partners. “I will bring the suit in the Chancery court in Delaware – which as you know is my home state and I am privileged to have worked with and know every judge on the chancery court.”
    After Elon Musk purchased Twitter with the stated goal of restoring free-speech, President Biden called for a federal investigation into Musk on the podium at the White House. Following this, the Biden Department of Justice, Securities and Exchange Commission, and Federal Trade Commission initiated legal actions and investigations against Tesla, SpaceX, and X.
    This recent decision by Judge McCormick, who worked with Biden’s top donors and was nominated by Biden’s close friend, to override Tesla’s board and the majority of its shareholders is another clear example of the Biden administration and its allies weaponizing the American legal system against their political opponents.  https://twitter.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/1752967434439663935

@ClownWorld_: 22-year-old illegal alien Jhoan Boada, charged with assaulting NYPD officers in Times Square, released without bail, flips off the camera while leaving court.
https://twitter.com/ClownWorld_/status/1753089398248452449

@JonathanTurley: The U.S. Capitol Police answered much debated question today: it turns out that shooting a porn scene in a Senate Hearing room and posting it on the Internet is not a crime.

@robbystarbuck: Feds announce that they will NOT be charging the two guys who filmed a gay porno in the Senate hearing room. A MAGA grandma with cancer got jail time for walking into the Capitol but a Dem staffer makes gay porn in a Senate hearing room and isn’t charged. Justice is dead!
https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1753070762112720996

@julie_kelly2: During testimony yesterday, FBI director Chris Wray emphatically stated he would not prosecute pro-Palestinian protesters. They are protected under 1A, he said.
     @seanmdav: Wray had zero problem sending in armed SWAT teams to raid and arrest Christians who were praying outside abortion mills.

@greg_price11: On the left is an illegal alien who beat the crap out of an NYPD officer. He was released from jail without bail. On the right is a father of 11 children who was arrested for praying outside an abortion mill. He was just convicted in federal court and faces 11 years in jail.
https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1753132425067041230

WSJ Editorial Board: Chicago Votes for Hamas (Not a parody! It’s just risible hypocrisy!)
Mayor Brandon Johnson supports a cease-fire . . . in Gaza, not Chicago.
    The Chicago City Council on Wednesday passed a resolution calling for a cease-fire in Gaza, and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson cast the tie-breaking vote. Skeptics wonder when the mayor will support a cease-fire on the West Side…
https://www.wsj.com/articles/brandon-johnson-chicago-cease-fire-resolution-gaza-israel-2e7cd658

@libsoftiktok: Democrats in Illinois have proposed a bill that would stop police from conducting traffic stops for most violations. Their reasoning is because of “racial bias in traffic stops.” They want to make Illinois even more dangerous and put more lives, including black lives, in danger.
https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1753077762435531087/photo/1

The above bill was withdrawn due to beaucoup outrage.

END

GREG HUNTER

Iran War, Border War, CV19 Vax War, Economic War

Iran War, Border War, CV19 Vax War, Economic War

By Greg Hunter On February 2, 2024 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups11 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 619, 2.2.24)

Iran proxies attacked a US military base in Jordan this past week, killing three and injuring 30. It was a drone attack, and war hawks want to strike back. Senator Tommy Tuberville says, “This war is getting ready to happen.” Iran says it will strike back, and there is no end in sight with the violence erupting all over the Middle East. Are we already in biblical end times?

The FBI has been warning about terror attacks coming to the US. No doubt it is the open Biden border policy letting in all sorts of unvetted people, and yes, some have had terror ties. Joe Kent is running for Congress in Washington’s 3rd congressional district. Kent is a retired officer of the United States Army Special Forces and says Iran has already “infiltrated our wide-open southern border.” What is the FBI doing to prepare for the coming attacks, and why are they not hunting down terror suspects now? Meanwhile in Texas, Governor Abbott is stopping some of the illegal aliens. Biden wants to open it all back up, but Governor Ron DeSantis and other states are sending Texas national guard troops to keep it closed. This Fight is far from over.

Another week and has passed with more who died suddenly with no cause of death reported. It’s the work of Professor Mark Crispin Miller and the numbers of the dead and sick are exploding. Professor Miller can hardly keep up, and with more than 700 million CV19 injections in the USA alone, the peak in deaths and injuries is not going to happen until 2026 according to Martin Armstrong.

Finally, the all-time high stock market is making people feel like the economy is doing great. A look under the hood of the record-breaking stock market and you seek a Federal Reserve worried about the banking system, out of control spending in Washington D.C. and a commercial real estate problem that is now imploding all around the world. A so-called “tsunami of office loan defaults” are coming and this could take out several big global banks. Could this start a daisy chain of financial implosion? Make no mistake, Fed Head Jay Powell is worried, and he is not cutting interest rates any time soon.

There is much more in the 51-minute newscast.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 2.2.24.

Iran War, Border War, CV19 Vax War, Economic War

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

After the Wrap-Up:

SEE YOU ON MONDAY

SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2024. CONTRACT: 368 NOTICES FOR 36,800 OZ or 1.1446 TONNES

total notices so far: 15,810 contracts for 1,581,000 Oz (49.175 tonnes)

FOR FEBRUARY:

SILVER NOTICES 7 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 35,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 624 for 3,120,000 oz

Getting Physical: Why Bullion Has Outperformed Gold Stocks

Ted Butler: A big development in silver

A Big New Development

Ted Butler

Miles Franklin’s Andy Schectman explains the gold game in eight minutes

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS

BRICS nations to drag US back into the gold standard? Feat. Ron Branstetter

Cocoa Prices Hit 46-Year High As Drought Concerns Threaten West African Crops

Futures Soar After Tech Earnings Blowout, Putting S&P On Track For Gains In 13 Of Past 14 Weeks

Equities firmer, with outperformance in the NQ led by META (+16%) and AMZN (+6%); US NFP due – Newsquawk US Market Open

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

FX

FIXED INCOME

COMMODITIES

EARNINGS

GEOPOLITICS

CRYPTO

APAC TRADE

Aozora Delivers Grim Reminder Of Japan Carry-Trade Risk

Majority Of Germans Reject Left-Liberal Government’s Radical Immigration Law

Fugitive Wanted For London Acid Attack That Injured 12 Is Afghan Asylum-Seeker & Convicted Sex Offender

Ezedi was refused asylum in Britain twice but remained in the country

Israel defeats Hamas in Khan Yunis, over 10,000 Gazan terrorists killed

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that after additional gains by the IDF in Khan Yunis, 10,000 Hamas fighters have been killed and 10,000 wounded.

Gallant vows to rout Hamas in Gaza’s Rafah

Hamas says truce proposal ‘still being studied’ as Israeli war cabinet meets on deal

Qatar ‘optimistic’ after receiving ‘initial positive confirmation’ from terror group on hostage agreement, but source close to Hamas says Qatari statement was ‘rushed and not true’

IDF demolishes Hamas rocket production site in central Gaza

Soldiers from the Yiftah Brigade raided safes belonging to Hamas, seizing documents showing how Hamas transfers funds.

Alleged Israeli airstrikes target Iranian stronghold near Damascus – report

After Fresh Israeli Strikes On Damascus, Whole Region Braces For US Attack, Possibly ‘Hours’ Away

Truce Deal Is Faltering As Hamas Wants A Who’s Who Of Murderers Released

Saudi Arabia willing to make concessions on Palestinians for peace with Israel

Saudi officials have told their US counterparts that Riyadh would not insist Israel take concrete steps to create a Palestinian state.

Saudi Arabia to accept Israeli ‘political commitment’

‘IRGC Is Getting Out Of Dodge’: Biden Has Telegraphed Syria-Iraq Response Too Much

US ‘Retaliatory Strikes’ Underway Over Syria

More than 10 policemen have “died suddenly” in Italy since January 1

An article that mentions “vaccination” (!) notes that the policemen’s union has been looking for “a coherent analysis of the phenomenon,” but that the government appears to be stonewalling them

Excellent interview by Dr. Peter McCullough: “Millions Injured or Dead Including Public Figures, Dr. McCullough Searching for Answers on the American Moutsos Show “

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

French Shipping Giant Is Latest To Suspend Red Sea Transit, As Details Emerge Of US Destroyer’s ‘Close Call’

Exxon CFO Calls Biden’s LNG Export License Halt A Big “Mistake”

Mega-Cap Tech Melts-Up Moar Despite Powell Punch-In-The-Face & Regional Bank Rout

January Jobs Shocker: Payrolls Explode By 353K, Double The Expected And Higher Than All Estimate As Wages Surge

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In Recent History

Gold & Bonds Dump, Dollar Jumps As Payrolls Spark Plunge In Rate-Cut Hopes

UMich Inflation Exp Slows, Sentiment Hits Highest Since 2021

“This Is Not Friendly” – Bret Weinstein Shows Tucker Carlson How China & The UN Are Driving The Invasion Of America

COVID-Era Back-Rent Now Due In Los Angeles

75% Of House Democrats Voted Against Deporting Criminal Migrants Who Commit Social Security Fraud

It’s Biden Vs Texas (And Texas Is Right)

The Situation Has Moved Beyond Legal Arguments

Jim Jordan Whips Out Subpoena, Devastates Fani

Trump Election Case Now On Hold For 50 Days Amid Immunity Appeal

Other Activity

Iran War, Border War, CV19 Vax War, Economic War

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