SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES

I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros

4: 15 PM ACCESS

*CANADIAN GOLD: $2,741.07 UP 0.05 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 2,795.90 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//DEC 1 2023)

*BRITISH GOLD: 1614.94 up 3.80 pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1655.17 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 2/2023

*EURO GOLD: 1885.02 DOWN 1.70 euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 1903.75 EUROS PER OZ//DEC 1.2023)

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,036.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/02/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 02/06/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

072 C GOLDMAN 2
092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 5
104 C MIZUHO 2
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 4
190 H BMO CAPITAL 62
323 C HSBC 61
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 20
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 36
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 20
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 12
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 15
661 C JP MORGAN 30 13
690 C ABN AMRO 2
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 19 23
880 C CITIGROUP 99
880 H CITIGROUP 1
905 C ADM 2

TOTAL: 216 216

JPMorgan stopped 13/216 contracts.

FOR FEB.:

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2024. CONTRACT: 216 NOTICES FOR 36,800 OZ or 0.6718 TONNES

total notices so far: 16,026 contracts for 1,602,6000 Oz (49.847 tonnes)

FOR FEBRUARY:

SILVER NOTICES 13 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 65,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 637 for 3,185,000 oz

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END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85

INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD

INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES

SLV//

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS AT THE SLV//

MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV AGAIN: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.345 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 435.144 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 2471 CONTRACTS TO 139,548 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0.50 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. WE HAD A ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION BUT ATTEMPTED AND FAILED SHORT COVERING. WE HAD A HUGE 1025 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY.

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: 1025 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.

WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.50), AND WERE BASICALLY UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 2957 CONTRACTS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE MUST HAVE HAD:

A STRONG SIZED 550 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.535 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) ACCOMPANYING A STRANGE 89 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR EX. FOR RISK FOR 445,000 OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE/ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 45,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL; 4,075 MILLION OZ

//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 4.075 MILLION OZ

/ HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1025 CONTRACTS)/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED XXX CONTRACTS //

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 3 days, total 1600 contracts: OR 8.000 MILLION OZ (533 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 8.000 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 8.000 MILLION OZ.

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2407 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 550 ISSUED FOR MARCH AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB. OF 3.535 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANIED BY FIRST DAY NOTICE OF 445,000 OZ EX. FOR RISK FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 45,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL 4.075 MILLION OZ

NEW STANDING 4.075 million OZ /// WE HAVE A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 3291 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 550 CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH ATTEMPTED AND FAILED SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS . THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT (550) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .

WE HAD 13 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 65,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 10,113 CONTRACTS TO 419,923 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: – REMOVED 64 CONTRACTS

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 10,113 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $17.95 LOSS IN PRICE//FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 49.773 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE ACCOMPANIED BY FIRST DAY NOTICE : 55,400 OZ EX. FOR RISK //THUS INITIAL STANDING FOR FEB: 51.494 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 9100 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING: 52.98 TONNES // ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $17.95 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 6322 OI CONTRACTS (19.664) PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3791 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 419,923

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6322 CONTRACTS WITH 10,113 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A GOOD SIZED 3791 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6322 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 1671 CONTRACTS.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3791 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (10,113) //TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6,322 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 49.773 TONNES PLUS FIRST DAY NOTICE OF 1.723 TONNE OZ EX. FOR RISK FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 9100 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 52.98 TONNES. / 3) MINOR IF ANY LONG LIQUIDATION // 4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1671 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

FEB.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB. :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 15,870 CONTRACTS OR 1,587,000 OZ OR 49.36 TONNES IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5290 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 49.36 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 49.36/3550 x 100% TONNES 1,30% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 49.36 TONNES (SHOULD BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 2407 CONTRACTS OI TO 139.882 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 550 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

MARCH 550 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 550 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 2407 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 550 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,

WE OBTAIN A MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2957 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 16.455 MILLION OZ

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY $.50 LOSS IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27.97 PTS OR 1.02% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 23.55 PTS OR 0.15% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 196.14 OR 0.59% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.96% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN AT 7.1975 /OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2165 /Oil DOWN TO 71.83 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 77.05/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3 CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 10,113 CONTRACTS TO 419,923 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $17.95 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY TRADING.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS 3791 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 3791 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3791 CONTRACTS

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STONG SIZED TOTAL OF 6322 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3791 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 10,713 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $17.95 FRIDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED 1671 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: FEB (52.98 TONNES) ( ACTIVE MONTH)

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY: 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR: 19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676 tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24: 52.98 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $17.95 //// BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 6322 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF FRIDAY’S TRADING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED NERVOUS SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AS LONGS NOTIFIED THE CME THAT THEY WERE TAKING DELIVERY ON THEIR JUST PURCHASED GOLD CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 19.664 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB. (49.773 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE ALONG WITH AN EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 1.7235 TONNES. THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH TODAY’S 9100 OZ QUEUE JUMP .2830 TONNES//NEW TOTAL STANDING 52.98: ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $17.95

WE HAD – REMOVED 64 CONTRACT TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6322 CONTRACTS OR 632,200 OZ OR 19.664 TONNES.

Estimated gold volume today:// 167,432 poor

final gold volumes/yesterday 243,755 fair

//speculators have left the gold arena

FEB 5 INITIAL FEB GOLD

/ /// THE FEB 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	nil .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	NIL oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	216 notice(s) 21,600 OZ .6716 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	453 contracts 45,300 oz 1.409 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	16,026 notices 1,6026,000 oz 49.847 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	x

0 dealer deposits:

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total customer withdrawals: 0

total withdrawals nil oz

we had 0 customer deposits

total customer deposits NIL oz

Adjustments:

dealer to customer account: ASAHI 55,780.862 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEB.

For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 669 contracts having LOST 277 contracts. We had 368 notices filed on Friday, so we gained 91 contracts or an additional 9100 oz will stand in this active delivery month of February.

We also had 554 notices filed under exchange for risk on first day notice for a total of 55,400 oz or 1.723 tonnes to which must be added to the delivery cycle.

Thus initial standing for gold for February is 50.136 tonnes + 1.723 tonnes = 51.859 tonnes. This was followed with today’s queue jump of 9100 oz for .2830 tonnes//New standing 51.257 tonnes + 1.723 tonnes = 52.98 TONNES

March LOST 24 contracts to stand at 1993.

APRIL LOST 8686 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 345,859.

We had 216 contracts filed for today representing 21,600 oz

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 30 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 216 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 13 notice(s) was (were) stopped ( received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account and 0 notice(s) received (stopped) by the squid (Goldman Sachs)

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (16,026 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (669 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 216 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,647,900 OZ OR 51.257 TONNES + 1.723 Ex for Risk/prior = 52.98 tonnes

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB. contract month: No of notices filed so far (16,026) x 100 oz + (669) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (216) x 100 oz) which equals 1,647,900 oz + 54,400 oz ex. for risk/prior// NEW total standing OR 52.98 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR FEB: 52.98 TONNES WHICH IS GREAT FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,350,186.829 41.99 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 19,071,972.955 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 9,148,732.752 (284.56 tonnes).

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,923,240.203 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 7,798,546 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 242.56 tonnes

END

SILVER/COMEX

FEB 5/INITIAL

//2024// THE FEB 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	5051.04 oz CNT .
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	598,336.590 oz Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)	13 CONTRACT(S) (65,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	89 contracts (445,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	637 Contracts (3,185,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposit: nil oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 1 deposits customer account:

i) Into Loomis 598,336.590 oz

total customer deposits 598,336.590 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 130.199 million oz/275.529 million or 47.18%

adjustment: 0

Comex withdrawals: 1

i) Out of CNT 5051.04 oz

total withdrawal: 5051.04 oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 42.873 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 275.529 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF FRB. /2023 OI: 102 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 2 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 7 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 9 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 45,000 OZ OF SILVER CONTRACTS WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY.

MARCH SURPRISINGLY GAINED 351 CONTRACTS TO 95,988

APRIL SAW A GAIN OF 4 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 5

MAY SAW A GAIN OF 2145 CONTRACTS UP TO 29.585

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 13 for 65,000 oz

Comex volumes// est. volume today 56,143 good

Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 98.341 huge

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 637 x 5,000 oz = 3,185,000 oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (102) and the number of notices served upon today 13 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the FEB/2024 contract month: 637 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB. (102) – number of notices served upon today (13 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB contract month equates to 3.630 MILLION OZ. + .445 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK PRIOR//NEW TOTAL 4,075 MILLION OZ

New total standing: 4.075 million oz.

There are 42.873 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

FEB5/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85 TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES:

FEB 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.95 TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.15 TONNES:

FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.15 TONNES:

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $16.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.88 TONNES:

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.89 TONNES:

TOTAL IN LAST 18 DAYS WITHDRAWAL OF 14.12 TONNES

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAYHUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.05 TONNES

JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES

JAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.75 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $3.95 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.95 TONNES

JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD UP $14.85 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.25 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .549 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.;//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.40 TONNES

JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $31.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES

JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES

JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.90 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES

JAN 2/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.11 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 851.73 TONNES

Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them

FEB 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.345 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.144 MILLION OZ//LAST 8 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL

FEB 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.489 MILLION OZ//LAST 7 DAYS: 14.105 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL

FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.19 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.947 MILLION OZ//LAST 6 DAYS: 10.3018 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL

JAN 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7438 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.137 MILLION OZ//LAST 5 DAYS: 9.1118 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL

JAN 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.876 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.699 MILLION OZ//LAST 4 DAYS: 7.368 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP $.37 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.105 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.575 MILLION OZ

JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.556 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.680 MILLION OZ

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.831 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /

INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.236 MILLION OZ

JAN 24/WITH SILVER UP $0.44 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 1.375 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.067 MILLION OZ

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.21 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 16.201 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.694 MILLION OZ

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ

JAN 19/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ

JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.951 MILLION OZ

JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.38 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 779,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ

JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ

JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.62 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ

JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 450,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ

JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,602,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ

JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 916,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.972 MILLION OZ

JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ

JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.294 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ

JAN 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 915,000 OZ FORM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.35 MILLION OZ

DEC 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ

DEC 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.374 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.265 MILLION OZ

THIS IS THE 3RD STRAIGHT DAY THAT THE SLV HAS ENGAGED IN WITHDRAWALS

DEC 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.465 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.639 MILLION OZ

DEC 22/WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.289 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.104 MILLION OZ

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 28 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 443.393 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 435.144 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey

END

2) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

MATHEW PIEPENBURG

END

3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES:y Dispatches

Sound Money Defense League president reviews efforts to remonetize gold

Submitted by admin on Fri, 2024-02-02 14:02 Section: Daily Dispatches

2:06p ET Friday, February 2, 2024

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Stefan Gleason, president of coin and bullion dealer Money Metals Exchange and chairman of the Sound Money Defense League, was interviewed this week by Jesse Day of the Commodity Culture channel on You Tube, discussing the league’s work to restore gold and silver as money not just in the United States but throughout the world as well.

Gleason also covers the efforts of U.S. Rep. Alex Mooney, R-West Virginia, to get straight answers from the ever-secretive Federal Reserve about its surreptitious involvement in the gold market.

The interview is 25 minutes long and can be seen at YouTube here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Nigeria may expropriate its people’s foreign currency holdings

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2024-02-03 14:19 Section: Daily Dispatches

As if Nigeria needed another reason to turn to gold, or even seashells.

* * *

Operation Rescue Naira: Federal Government Considers Converting $30 Billion in Domiciliary Deposits to Naira

By Godfrey George and Temitayo Jaiyeola
Punch, Lagos, Nigeria
Saturday, February 3, 2024

There are strong indications that the federal government is mulling a policy that will result in the conversion of foreign currencies in domiciliary accounts of citizens to naira to stabilise the national currency, which this week recorded its worst performance in history.

If it goes ahead with the plan, the government will order the conversion of foreign currencies sitting idly in individuals’ and corporate organisations’ domiciliary accounts to naira at a rate to be determined by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

According to top presidency sources, the move is meant to stabilise the naira, which recorded its biggest fall in the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market on Monday, depreciating by 24% to close at 1,348 per dollar.

One of the presidency sources told Saturday Punch that the problem of forex scarcity and the naira fall was an elite issue, adding that the federal government would not fold its arms and continue to watch some individuals hoarding foreign currencies at the expense of the naira. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://punchng.com/operation-rescue-naira-fg-considers-converting-30bn-domiciliary-deposits-to-naira

END

FBI violated constitutional rights of hundreds in Beverly Hills vault raid, appeals court rules

Submitted by admin on Sat, 2024-02-03 14:37 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Teny Sahakian
Fox News, New York
Wednesday, January 31, 2024

The FBI violated private citizens’ constitutional rights when it seized contents from hundreds of safe deposit boxes during a 2021 raid on a Beverly Hills business suspected of money laundering, a federal appeals court ruled last week.

“This was a resounding victory, not just for our clients, but for the hundreds of people who have been stuck in a nightmare for years because of what the FBI did,” Institute for Justice senior attorney Rob Frommer, who represented several plaintiffs in the case, told Fox News.

The U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals found the bureau violated U.S. Private Vaults box holders’ Fourth Amendment rights against unreasonable searches and seizures by opening and cataloging the contents of 1,400 safe deposit boxes without individual criminal warrants for each. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.foxnews.com/media/fbi-violated-hundreds-americans-constitutional-rights-beverly-hills-raid-appeals-court-finds

* * *

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS

END

5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES /

END

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

end

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.1975

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2165

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27.97 PTS OR 1.02%

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 23.55 PTS OR 0.15%

2. Nikkei closed UP 196.14 PTS OR 0.54%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UP TO 104.14 EURO FALLS TO 1.0755 DOWN 22 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield:RISES TO. +.721 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 148.44/JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN// OFFSHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund UP TO +2.2910***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.851* /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.204…**

3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.321

3j Gold at $2023.45 silver at: 22.42 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 3 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 91.09//

3m oil into the 71 dollar handle for WTI and 77 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 148,44// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.721% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8691 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9348 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.099 UP 7 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.278 UP 5 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.439 UP 7 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.55…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)

GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 14 BASIS PTS AT 4.014

end

2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge

Futures Drop As Yields, Dollar Jump After Powell Repeats Rate Cuts To Come Later

MONDAY, FEB 05, 2024 – 08:17 AM

US equity futures and bonds fell while the dollar rose after Fed Chair Jerome Powell again pushed back against any hopes of lower interest rates during his 60 Minutes interview, saying it’s “not likely” the Fed would cut in March (which was to be expected after Friday’s blowout jobs number). As of 7:40am ET S&P futures dropped 0.1% after closing at an all time high on Friday when they rose as high as 4998. Meanwhile, European shares edged higher, supported by strong earnings from Italian lender UniCredit SpA while Asia closed red after a rollercoaster session in China which first plunged then saw another stabilization bid from the plunge protection team. 10-year Treasury yields climbed nine basis points to 4.11%, extending a move that started after Friday’s blockbuster jobs report as yields on debt from Australia to Germany rose. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Index traded near a two-month high and oil and gold prices retreated, and bitcoin reversed a weekend selloff

In premarket trading, Caterpillar gained 3.2% after posting fourth-quarter profit that exceeded analysts expectations. On the other end, McDonalds dropped 2% after the fast food giant reported revenue and comparable sales for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimates:

Revenue $6.41 billion, +8.1% y/y, estimate $6.45 billion
- US comparable sales +4.3% vs. +10.3% y/y, estimate +4.45%
- International operated markets comparable sales +4.4% vs. +12.6% y/y, estimate +5.03%
- International developmental licensed markets comparable sales +0.7% vs. +16.5% y/y, estimate +5.06%

Boeing shares dropped 2.1% after the cursed company found more misdrilled holes on its 737 Max jet, which could further delay deliveries. Fuselage supplier Spirit AeroSystems was also down 3.0% as the latest manufacturing slip originated with a supplier and will require rework on about 50 undelivered 737 jets to repair the faulty rivet holes, Boeing commercial chief Stan Deal said in a note to staff. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

4D Molecular Therapeutics jumps 63% after the biotech reported interim data from its phase 2 clinical trial for a treatment for wet AMD, an eye disease.
Air Products slides 7.9% after cutting its outlook for the year’s adjusted earnings per share.
Cano Health plunges 51% after the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
Catalent gains 11% after a deal to be bought by Novo Holdings.
Caterpillar Inc. rises 4.4% as higher sales in its energy and transportation business in the 4Q helped the company post profit that topped analysts’ expectations.
Elanco Animal Health gains 5.2% after the company said it is selling its fish health business to Merck & Co for $1.3 billion in cash.
Estée Lauder soars 15% after saying it’s cutting as many as 3,000 positions as part of a restructuring plan.
Everbridge shares rise 18% after the company announced a deal to be acquired by Thoma Bravo.
Haynes International gains 3.4% after agreeing to be purchased by Spanish stainless steelmaker Acerinox SA.

In a highly anticipated interview on CBS’s 60 Minutes, Powell said that the “danger of moving too soon is that the job’s not quite done.” The comments add evidence to a view that traders have been over-eager in pricing in interest rate cuts and now need to dial back those expectations. Brom Goldman to Barclays are among those that have pushed back their predictions for the timing of the Fed’s first reduction.

“There’s still a lot of uncertainty as to how quickly they cut,” said James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at Toronto Dominion Bank. “It’s a quiet week for data, so we’ll be watching central bankers very closely.”

After March rate cut odds tumbles after last week’s FOMC, the chance of a quarter-point of easing in March fell to just 10% after Powell’s comments. Compare this to just four weeks ago, when a move by then was considered a near certainty by investors.

Investors said they’ll be paying close attention to the line up of central bank speakers this week for more clues about the direction of monetary policy. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is scheduled to speak on Bloomberg TV later today, while Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are due to provide remarks on Tuesday.

European stocks bucked the global selling, and the Stoxx 600 rose 0.2%, near session highs, with food and beverage and personal care sectors are the best performers while automakers underperformed. UniCredit soars as profit beat estimates, allowing the bank to boost shareholder returns, while Nordea Bank falls after reporting fourth-quarter earnings and giving new profitability goals. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

Shares in UniCredit jump as much as 10% after the Italian lender reported earnings that beat estimates and boosted shareholder returns on 2023 profit to €8.6 billion, with analysts expecting consensus estimates to rise. Italian peers reporting later this week, including Intesa, gain.
Shares in Lotus Bakeries rise as much as 15% to hit a new record high, after the cake and pastry maker’s full-year results beat expectations. As annual sales hit €1 billion for the first time, analysts were impressed by the company’s ability to keep growing its volumes.
Shares in Renault climb as much as 4.7% as speculation about possible consolidation in the auto industry is fanned by a press report and analyst notes. The shares pared their gain after Stellantis chairman John Elkann said there’s “no plan” concerning merger operations with other competitors.
Shares in Jeronimo Martins jump as much as 3.2% after the retailer was upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Barclays, which expects another year of double-digit earnings per share growth for the company.
Shares in National Grid rise as much as 3.4% after Jefferies upgrades its rating on the power transmission and distribution company to buy, saying it looks set to deliver “highly attractive growth” in both the UK and US.
Shares in Nordea fall as much as 4.9%, the most since March 2023, after the Nordic lender reported results. Analysts say the numbers fell short of expectations on profits, but it’s not likely to weigh on estimates going forward.
Shares in Atos fall as much as 30% as French IT company said it’s seeking a court-appointed mediator to assist in its refinancing discussion with banks. A planned €720 million ($777 million) rights issue will no longer take place. The news is seen as a blow for equity holders given the risk of significant dilution, according to Oddo.
Shares in Delivery Hero fall as much as 10%, extending Friday’s 23% plunge on concern about an Asian deal, even as the German food delivery company pre-released fourth-quarter results that analysts called reassuring.
Shares in Vodafone fall as much as 2.1% as analysts looked past the telecom firm’s third-quarter sales beat to highlight uncertainties such as revenue headwinds posed by cable television regulation in Germany and the failed merger of its Italian business.
Shares in Barco drop as much as 5.5% after ING cut its rating on the stock to hold from buy, citing a lack of short-term catalysts.
Shares in Banco Santander and Lloyds fell after a Financial Times report that Iran was able to covertly move money using accounts at the lenders. Santander told the FT it was “highly focused on sanctions compliance” while Lloyds said it complied with sanctions laws.

In Asia, Chinese stocks saw another volatile session as investors assessed the latest pledges by policymakers to stabilize the slumping equity market. The benchmark CSI 300 index swung between losses of 2.1% and gains of 1.7%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.7%, with Tencent, Samsung and BHP among the biggest drags. Benchmarks declined more than 1% in Australia, South Korea and Singapore. Japanese equities climbed after the yen weakened. The China Securities Regulatory Commission vowed on Sunday to prevent abnormal fluctuations, though the plan was short on specifics and sparked another early liquidation in China. The CSI 300 Index slumped 4.6% in chaotic trading last week to its lowest level in five years.

“Whether or not today marks the floor to Chinese equities is yet to be seen, but it sure feels as though we’re bumping along the bottom,” said David Chao, a strategist at Invesco Asset Management in Singapore.

Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially both pressured from early on in a continuation of the equity rout after Chinese stocks plunged to five-year lows despite the PBoC’s previously announced RRR cut taking effect, while the securities regulator pledged to stabilise the market and prevent abnormal market fluctuations although refrained from announcing specific measures. As such, Chinese markets later recovered from their lows which saw both benchmarks briefly turn positive.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in the commodity-related sectors and as participants await tomorrow’s RBA decision, while Australian Services and Composite PMI data improved but remained in contraction territory.
Nikkei 225 was underpinned by recent currency weakness and with the biggest movers influenced by earnings.
Indian stocks declined, erasing all of their initial gains as Reliance Industries Ltd. and lenders retreated. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.5% to 71,731.42 as of 03:45 p.m. in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index declined 0.4% to 21,771.70. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific index finished 0.2% lower. Nine of the 15 NSE sectors closed in the red, with the consumption and fast-moving consumer goods gauges leading on the way down. Out of 30 shares in the Sensex, 8 rose and 22 fell.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3% to its highest level since Dec. 12, while Treasuries bear-flattened, as traders moved to pricing only a 10% chance of a quarter-point Fed cut in March following Powell’s CBS interview.

The Norwegian krone, Swedish krona and Australian dollar led G-10 losses against the dollar on dampened risk appetite
USD/JPY rose as much as 0.3% to 148.82, the highest level since November; Currency pair saw a 1.3% daily gain on Friday after strong US payrolls data, the biggest daily move in three months
EUR/USD slumped as much as 0.4% to 1.0747, the lowest level since Dec. 11; European government bonds fell in tandem with Treasuries

In rates, treasuries bear-flattened with two-year yields climbing as much as 10bps to a one-month high of 4.46% while the 10Y rose 9bps to 4.12% after Powell said Americans may have to wait beyond March for the central bank to cut interest rates, adding to gains seen on Friday after the blockbuster jobs report. European bonds have followed suit. Treasury auctions resume Tuesday with $54b 3-year note sale, followed by $42b 10-year and $25b 30-year on Wednesday and Thursday.

In commodities, oil prices declined, with WTI falling 0.5% to trade near $71.90 overlooking geopolitical tension after American forces launched attacks against the Houthis, following strikes on Iranian forces and militias in Syria and Iraq late last week. Spot gold falls 0.7%.

On today’s calendar, we have January S&P services PMI (9:45am), ISM services index (10am); The senior loan officer opinion survey is scheduled for release at 2pm.Federal Reserve members scheduled to speak include Goolsbee (10am) and Bostic (2pm); busy week for Fed speakers also includes Mester, Kashkari, Collins, Harker, Kugler, Barkin, Bowman and Logan.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 4,967.50
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 483.80
MXAP down 0.2% to 166.08
MXAPJ down 0.6% to 505.32
Nikkei up 0.5% to 36,354.16
Topix up 0.7% to 2,556.71
Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 15,510.01
Shanghai Composite down 1.0% to 2,702.19
Sensex down 0.4% to 71,777.05
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.0% to 7,625.85
Kospi down 0.9% to 2,591.31
German 10Y yield up 3 bps at 2.27%
Euro down 0.3% to $1.0761
Brent Futures down 0.4% to $76.99/bbl
Gold spot down 0.9% to $2,021.03
US Dollar Index up 0.25% to 104.19

Top Overnight News

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Americans may have to wait beyond March for the central bank to cut interest rates as officials look for more economic data to confirm that inflation is headed down to 2%.
US bonds fell after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against the prospect of an interest-rate cut in March, further dashing hopes of a speedy pivot toward easier monetary policy.
Chinese stocks were caught in another volatile session Monday following last week’s rout, as investors assessed the latest pledges by policymakers to stabilize the slumping equity market.
The US vowed more strikes against Iran’s forces and its proxies in the Middle East after three straight days of punishing attacks, even as Washington insisted it won’t be pulled into a prolonged regional conflict.
President Joe Biden implored Nevada voters to make Republican frontrunner Donald Trump a “loser,” part of a two-day swing designed to gain an advantage in a battleground state he hopes to win again later this year.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were mostly subdued after last Friday’s red-hot jobs report and the latest comments from Fed Chair Powell who reiterated the expectation that a March cut is likely too soon. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in the commodity-related sectors and as participants await tomorrow’s RBA decision, while Australian Services and Composite PMI data improved but remained in contraction territory. Nikkei 225 was underpinned by recent currency weakness and with the biggest movers influenced by earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially both pressured from early on in a continuation of the equity rout after Chinese stocks plunged to five-year lows despite the PBoC’s previously announced RRR cut taking effect, while the securities regulator pledged to stabilise the market and prevent abnormal market fluctuations although refrained from announcing specific measures. As such, Chinese markets later recovered from their lows which saw both benchmarks briefly turn positive.

Top Asian News

China’s securities regulator vowed to stabilise the market and prevent abnormal market fluctuations although refrained from announcing specific measures, while it will crack down on ill-intended short-selling and attract more investment by long-term capital. It was also reported that China is to step up financing support for major private projects, according to Bloomberg.
Indonesia Central Bank Governor Warjiyo said there should be room to cut rates, but they are waiting for the IDR to strengthen and stated that Indonesia’s economy is in an upward cycle with a peak seen in 2026.
Foxconn (2317 TW) January sales down 20.9% Y/Y; the outlook for the first quarter of this year is expected to decrease Y/Y

European equities are mixed, Stoxx600 (+0.1%); though the FTSE MIB outperforms, lifted by gains in UniCredit (+8.7%), post-earnings. European sectors also hold onto a mixed footing; Optimised Personal Care and Grocery is lifted by Jeronimo Martin (+2.5%) whilst Energy lags in tandem with broader weakness in the crude complex given sentiment/USD strength. US equity futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.2%, RTY -0.8%) hold just below the unchanged mark and within a relatively tight range; with the exception of the RTY, which significantly underperforms in a continuation of Friday’s price action.

Top European News

UK seeks to end the Northern Ireland impasse and unveiled a plan to reduce trade friction on goods flowing from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, according to Bloomberg.
Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neil was formally appointed as Northern Ireland’s First Minister to become the first Irish nationalist to hold the post, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Elderson said that they see a lot is going well for banks in the area of climate risks even if no single bank has currently met all expectations.
ECB’s Vujcic said patience is needed and need to ensure there aren’t any second-round effects on inflation from wages before cutting interest rates, according to Bloomberg.
UK ONS Labour Force Survey re-weighting: Unemployment Rate in three-months to November 3.9% (prev. estimate 4.2%).
German Ifo writes that the lack of orders within manufacturing is becoming an increasing burden on the domestic economy
OECD raises 2024 global growth forecast to 2.9% from 2.7%, holds 2025 forecast at 3%. US 2024 forecast raised to 2.1% from 1.5%, 2025 held at 1.7%. EZ 2024 forecast cut to 0.6% from 0.9%, 2025 lowered to 1.3% from 1.5%. Chinese 2024 forecast held at 4.7%, 2025 held at 4.2%. Japan 2024 growth held at 1.0%, 2025 lowered to 1% from 1.2%. UK 2024 forecast held at 0.7%, 2025 held at 1.2%. Expects Fed to cut rates in Q2, ECB in Q3; policy will remain restrictive for some time.

The Dollar is still enjoying the spoils from the post-NFP bounce printing a 104.29 high for the session thus far; next level to the upside goes back to 104.50 ahead of a cluster of highs between 104.50-60 from mid-Nov.
EUR is still hampered by the USD with the pair at its lowest level since mid-Dec., 1.0750 is the trough today; 11th December low at 1.0740.
JPY is steady vs. the USD but near Friday’s levels with upside in USD/JPY running out of momentum at the 28th Nov. high of 148.83.
AUD remains the laggard of the antipodes amid cautious sentiment surrounding China. Downtrend since late Dec continues to extend with AUD/USD low today of 0.6487 the lowest since mid-Nov.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1070 vs exp. 7.2088 (prev. 7.1006).

US Headlines

Fed Chair Powell said with the economy strong, they feel that they can approach the rate cut timing question carefully but repeated expectation that the March meeting is likely too soon to have confidence to start rate cuts and want more confidence before taking the very important step of starting rate cuts. Powell said they are making good progress on inflation and could move sooner if they saw labour market weakness or inflation persuasively coming down but added that more persistent inflation could mean a later move and that there is no easy, simple, obvious path, according to 60 Minutes interview. Furthermore, FT reported that Powell said the Fed expects to make three cuts this year and a CBS reporter noted that Powell suggested the first cut could occur around mid-year.
Fed’s Bowman (voter) said on Friday that she expects inflation to decline further with the policy rate held steady and it will eventually become appropriate to gradually cut rates if inflation continues to decline. Bowman also stated that upside risks to inflation include labour market tightness, easing financial conditions and geopolitics, while she will remain cautious on policy and watchful on data and revisions. Furthermore, she said reducing the policy rate too soon could mean more hikes will be needed in the future and she remains willing to raise the policy rate at a future meeting if needed, according to Reuters.
US Senate Majority Leader Schumer announced a bipartisan bill that toughens border security and grants new aid to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel, while the national security supplemental package totals USD 118bln and includes USD 60bln in military support to Ukraine and USD 14bln in security assistance for Israel, while it includes USD 30bln to strengthen US border security, according to a Reuters source.
US President Biden said he strongly supports the bipartisan deal and that it is the toughest and fairest set of border reforms in decades, but added that there is more work to be done to get it over the finish line, while it was separately reported that US Senator Murphy said the bill also authorises a quarter of a million more visas which will reunite thousands of families, according to Reuters.
US House Majority Leader Scalise said the Senate border bill will not receive a vote in the House, while House Speaker Johnson also said if this bipartisan bill reaches the House, it will be dead upon arrival.
US President Biden is reportedly weighing joining Las Vegas hotel workers if they go on strike on Monday, according to the union chief.

Fixed Income

USTs are slumping in a continuation of the post-Payroll move with Chair Powell factoring, alongside Bowman & Goolsbee also being unwilling to commit to a specific period; voter Bowman adding that she “remains willing to raise the policy rate” if required, currently 111-07 towards session lows.
Bunds are unreactive to the morning’s Final Composite & Services PMIs, which were subject to modest revisions. Within them, concern over wages/prices in the service sector remain a highlight and potentially influenced action on the margin; thus far, narrow 60 tick band which is well within Friday’s 134.82-135.88 extremes.
Gilts are similarly pressured, with further hawkishness filtering through post-BoE as we are yet to hear from those who voted for unchanged (ex-Pill) for any insight into when to expect the first cut; currently trading towards the session trough at 98.20.

Commodities

Modest pressure in the crude benchmarks as the USD continues to strengthen post-NFP/Powell. Attention is still firmly on geopols. after US/UK strikes against the Houthi’s and Kirby announcing more action will follow.
Gold is unable to derive any benefit from geopolitical risk as the USD firms and yields lift across the board. Action which has sent XAU below its 50- & 21-DMAs of USD 2034/oz and 2029/oz respectively.
Base metals are pressured given the overall risk tone and USD strength with little on the docket near-term to change this narrative before the afternoon’s US data points.
Two Ukrainian drones hit a primary oil processing facility at the Volgograd oil refinery in southern Russia.

Geopolitics – Middle East

US and UK carried out strikes against 36 Houthi targets which included missile systems, launchers, air defence systems, radar and buried weapons storage facilities, while the UK government said this was not an escalation, according to Reuters. US Central Command also announced its forces conducted a strike on four anti-cruise missiles which were prepared to launch against ships in the Red Sea.
Yemen’s Houthi spokesperson said the continuation of US-British aggression will not achieve any goal for the aggressors and Yemen’s decision to support Gaza will not be affected by the attacks, while the spokesperson added that Yemeni military capabilities are not easily destroyed and were rebuilt during years of tough war, according to Reuters.
White House’s Kirby said strikes on Friday against Iran-backed groups were just the first round of action and more action will follow, according to an interview with Fox News.
US National Security Adviser Sullivan said there will be more steps in the US response to the drone strike in Jordan and that the US would not describe it as an open-ended military campaign but added that if the US continues to see threats and attacks, they will respond to them. Sullivan also stated that Gaza humanitarian issues will be the top priority for Secretary of State Blinken on his trip and that the ball is in Hamas’ court on the hostage proposal, according to Reuters.
Iraqi military spokesperson said US air strikes constitute a violation of Iraqi sovereignty and pose a threat that could lead Iraq and the region into dire consequences. It was also reported that the Iraqi PM denied the US had coordinated air strikes with the Iraq government and called those claims lies, while the Iraqi PM said 16 were killed including civilians and 25 were wounded in the US aggression against Iraq’s sovereignty. Furthermore, Iraq’s Foreign Ministry summoned the US Charge D’Affaires to Baghdad and handed a note of protest against US attacks in Iraq, according to Reuters.
Iran strongly condemned the US military strikes which it said were violations of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria, while it added that US attacks represent another adventurous and strategic mistake by the US that will result only in increased tension in instability in the region. Syria’s Foreign Ministry also condemned the US attack on Syrian territory and stated that the US is fuelling conflict in the region in a very dangerous way.
Israeli army said its warplanes bombed an operational headquarters and military infrastructure of Hezbollah in the area of the village of Yaron and they also targeted a Hezbollah observation point in the village of Maroun al-Ras in southern Lebanon, according to Al Jazeera.

Geopolitics – Other

Ukrainian President Zelensky said he was considering replacing several officials including state leaders and in the military.
G7 countries are reportedly drawing up plans to issue debt to help fund Ukraine using Russian assets as a backstop for the repayment, according to FT.
South Korea summoned the Russian envoy over Moscow’s comment criticising President Yoon’s remarks on North Korea.

US Event Calendar

09:45: Jan. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 52.9, prior 52.9
09:45: Jan. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 52.4, prior 52.3
10:00: Jan. ISM Services Index, est. 52.0, prior 50.6, revised 50.5
14:00: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Well, that was some week we just had. To very briefly front-run our own regular full weekly recap at the end, 2yr US yields rose +16.1bps on Friday (the largest since March), a March Fed cut pricing fell to 22% (from 50% a week earlier), the Magnificent Seven rose +5.45% on Friday alone with Meta adding the most amount of daily market cap ever ($197bn), this sent the S&P 500 to a fresh all-time high even though 73% of the Russell 2000 fell on Friday, while the US Regional Bank index fell -7.23% on the week. That opening para is enough to wear anyone out.

Meta’s +20.3% increase on Friday after their results was the biggest micro story on Friday but the jobs report was also a big boost to market cap weighted indices, helping them shrug off the implications for monetary policy on smaller companies, and also the renewed Regional Bank fears.

Digging into that data, January’s strong payrolls report was driven by headline (+353k vs +185k expected) and private (+317k vs+170k expected) numbers massively beating expectations, alongside 126k of upward revisions to the prior two months. In addition, average hourly earnings surprised to the upside (+0.6% vs. +0.4%) but with a two-tenths drop in hours worked (34.1 vs. 34.3) which was the one inconsistent part of the report, even if bad weather could have been an influence. Elsewhere, the unemployment rate of 3.7% (3.8% expected) was a basis point from rounding down to 3.6%.

Fed Chair Powell wouldn’t have seen these numbers before the FOMC and before his taped interview aired last night on “60 minutes” where he indicated that the March meeting is likely too soon to have confidence in starting rate cuts. He added that the Fed will likely move at a considerably slower pace than the market expects. To be fair nothing much new here, but the confirmation that he wasn’t going to use the broadcast for a big dovish turnaround has caused 2yr and 10yr treasuries to back up 4-5bps overnight, adding to Friday’s big climb. Following this interview, there are lots of Fed speakers this week to give their take on the FOMC and payrolls. See the list in the calendar at the end.

Chinese stocks have been on a wild ride this morning with the small cap CSI 1000 down -8% at one point before halving those losses as I type. The Shanghai Composite was down over -3.5% but is now closing in on flat in a very volatile session. Small caps have been sold against large caps recently as the market views intervention as helping the larger indices. Perhaps some triggers or short covering came in to support the bounce back. This vol came even after the Chinese securities regulator (CSRC) vowed to maintain market stability on Sunday.

Elsewhere in Asia, the Nikkei (+0.52%) is outperforming with even the Hang Seng now up +0.49% after opening around -1.3% lower. S&P 500 (-0.27%) & NASDAQ 100 (-0.29%) futures are drifting lower. The impact of Treasury declines on Friday and this morning can be seen across Asian bond markets as well, with 10yr yields on Australian government debt up +12.3bps to 4.10% while 10yr JGB yields are +5bps at 0.72% as we go to press.

Early morning data showed that China’s services activity expanded at a slightly slower pace in January, as the Caixin services PMI edged down to 52.7 from 52.9 in December as new orders fell.

There’s not a huge amount of US data this week, as is usually the case post payrolls, but the highlight could be the annual BLS revisions to the seasonal factors for CPI on Friday. Both Waller (pre FOMC blackout) and Powell (at the FOMC) noted that these are an important landmark to get past before potential rate cuts can be better calibrated. Last year, these revisions lowered H1 inflation and increased H2 which changed the momentum profile of inflation.

Before we get there, today sees the services ISM (consensus 52.0) which negatively surprised a month ago (at 50.6 and below all estimates), with the employment series the lowest since July 2020 (down from 50.7 to 43.3). That clearly was completely at odds with payrolls on Friday, so we’ll find out today if that was an anomaly. Also anomalous has been the recent creep higher in initial jobless claims of late with continuous claims only having been higher for one week since November 2021. So another number to watch.

Today’s Fed Senior Loan Officer’s survey (SLOOS) should be very important but very tight bank lending in recent quarters hasn’t so far translated into reduced activity as it has done in the past. We don’t know why this is the case. It’s possible that excess savings or cash are still high enough in the economy that business and consumers don’t need much access to what would be very tight bank lending. This wouldn’t be able to carry on forever so the survey results today are still important to see if banks are becoming less restrictive after some improvements last quarter. You can find the other US data in the diary at the end.

Outside the US, China inflation numbers on Thursday are worth watching. Current estimates on Bloomberg suggest the CPI is expected to fall further into negative territory from -0.3% YoY in December to -0.5% YoY in January. The PPI is seen marginally edging higher but staying in negative territory (-2.6% vs -2.7% YoY in December). The Chinese CSI index closed at 5-yr lows on Friday so marching to a very different beat to the US at the moment.

In Europe, the focus will be on economic activity in Germany with indicators due including industrial production (Wednesday), factory orders (tomorrow) and the trade balance (today). There will also be industrial production (Friday) and retail sales for Italy (Wednesday) and trade balance data for France (Wednesday). From the ECB, investors will keep an eye on the consumer expectations survey (CES) on Tuesday and the economic bulletin will be due on Thursday.

Elsewhere earnings season soldiers on but after the mega caps from last week, the main highlights this week, which we detail in the calendar at the end, are not going to move the macro needle.

Recapping last week in more detail now, the large beat in payrolls led to a sharp sell-off in US fixed income on Friday as 10yr yields rose +14.1bps. Investors responded by paring back expectations of Fed cuts in 2024, with the expected Fed rate for December rising +21.2bps on Friday, and +9.6bps over the week. The pricing of a 25bps cut by the March meeting fell to 22%, down from 50% a week earlier and a still sizeable 38% as of Thursday despite Powell’s pushback against a March cut at Wednesday’s press conference. This sent 2yr Treasury yields +16.1bps higher on Friday, their largest rise since last March. 2yr yields were up a marginal +1.6bps over the week after their earlier decline amid renewed concerns over the US regional banking sector. 10yr yields were down -11.6bps over the week to 4.02%. The dollar rallied off the prospect of a higher terminal rate, with the dollar index up +0.85% on Friday (+0.47% over the week).

Even as Treasuries sold off, the S&P 500 rallied +1.07% on Friday, and +1.38% in weekly terms. However, less than half of S&P 500 companies were actually up on Friday with gains led by tech megacaps as the Magnificent Seven index rose +5.45% (+4.87% on the week) after earnings from Meta, Amazon, and Apple the evening before. Meta posted a stunning +20.32% rise on Friday, with the $197bn rise in its market cap being the largest daily gain on record for any company. Amazon also gained a strong +7.87% on Friday. The NASDAQ rose by a more moderate +1.74% (+1.12% over the week). On the other hand, the US regional banking index slumped last week, falling -7.23% (+0.20% on Friday) after shares for the New York Community Bancorp dropped -42.03% (+5.04% Friday).

Equity markets were muted elsewhere in the world. The STOXX 600 traded flat on the week (+0.02%), whilst the German DAX and French CAC retreated -0.25% and -0.55%, respectively. In Asia, Chinese equities were very weak last week driven by property sector woes following the court decision to liquidate Evergrande. The Shanghai Comp fell -6.19% (and -1.46% on Friday), its largest weekly decline since October 2018. The CSI 300 slipped -4.63% (and -1.18% on Friday) to 5-yr lows, and the Hang Seng also retreated -2.62% (and -0.21% on Friday).

Lastly, in commodities, crude retreated after Exxon and Chevron announced their second-largest annual profits in a decade despite a fall in oil prices, alongside strong supply from the Permian Basin. This added to the bearish narrative that had begun earlier in the week after data showed that some OPEC+ members may be pumping above their agreed limits and amid reports that we could be getting closer to a cease-fire deal in Gaza. Brent crude futures retreated -7.44% (and -1.74% on Friday) to $77.33/bbl, and WTI crude fell -7.35% (and -2.09% on Friday), the worst weekly slump since October.

2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)

European bourses mixed, US equity futures lower, Dollar bid & EUR lower; US ISM and earnings from MCD due – Newsquawk US Market Open

MONDAY, FEB 05, 2024 – 05:57 AM

European equities are mixed, with clear outperformance in the FTSE MIB, propped up by UniCredit (+8.7%) post-earnings; US equity futures are modestly softer, though the RTY underperforms
Dollar is firmer continuing Friday’s advances, which has been leading the EUR towards December lows.
Bonds are softer post-NFP and Chair Powell’s weekend commentary as attention turns to US ISM & other Fed speak
Crude futures are pressured by the firmer Dollar and awaiting further geopolitical news.
Looking ahead, US ISM, Japanese Household Spending & Overtime Pay, BoC Market Participation Survey, Fed SLOOS, Comments from BoC’s Macklem & Fed’s Bostic, Earnings from McDonald’s, NXP Semiconductors & Caterpillar.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European equities are mixed, Stoxx600 (+0.1%); though the FTSE MIB outperforms, lifted by gains in UniCredit (+8.7%), post-earnings.
European sectors also hold onto a mixed footing; Optimised Personal Care and Grocery is lifted by Jeronimo Martin (+2.5%) whilst Energy lags in tandem with broader weakness in the crude complex given sentiment/USD strength.
US equity futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.2%, RTY -0.8%) hold just below the unchanged mark and within a relatively tight range; with the exception of the RTY, which significantly underperforms in a continuation of Friday’s price action.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings from UniCredit & more.
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FX

The Dollar is still enjoying the spoils from the post-NFP bounce printing a 104.29 high for the session thus far; next level to the upside goes back to 104.50 ahead of a cluster of highs between 104.50-60 from mid-Nov.
EUR is still hampered by the USD with the pair at its lowest level since mid-Dec., 1.0750 is the trough today; 11th December low at 1.0740.
JPY is steady vs. the USD but near Friday’s levels with upside in USD/JPY running out of momentum at the 28th Nov. high of 148.83.
AUD remains the laggard of the antipodes amid cautious sentiment surrounding China. Downtrend since late Dec continues to extend with AUD/USD low today of 0.6487 the lowest since mid-Nov.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1070 vs exp. 7.2088 (prev. 7.1006).
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FIXED INCOME

USTs are slumping in a continuation of the post-Payroll move with Chair Powell factoring, alongside Bowman & Goolsbee also being unwilling to commit to a specific period; voter Bowman adding that she “remains willing to raise the policy rate” if required, currently 111-07 towards session lows.
Bunds are unreactive to the morning’s Final Composite & Services PMIs, which were subject to modest revisions. Within them, concern over wages/prices in the service sector remain a highlight and potentially influenced action on the margin; thus far, narrow 60 tick band which is well within Friday’s 134.82-135.88 extremes.
Gilts are similarly pressured, with further hawkishness filtering through post-BoE as we are yet to hear from those who voted for unchanged (ex-Pill) for any insight into when to expect the first cut; currently trading towards the session trough at 98.20.
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COMMODITIES

Modest pressure in the crude benchmarks as the USD continues to strengthen post-NFP/Powell. Attention is still firmly on geopols. after US/UK strikes against the Houthi’s and Kirby announcing more action will follow.
Gold is unable to derive any benefit from geopolitical risk as the USD firms and yields lift across the board. Action which has sent XAU below its 50- & 21-DMAs of USD 2034/oz and 2029/oz respectively.
Base metals are pressured given the overall risk tone and USD strength with little on the docket near-term to change this narrative before the afternoon’s US data points.
Two Ukrainian drones hit a primary oil processing facility at the Volgograd oil refinery in southern Russia.
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NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

UK seeks to end the Northern Ireland impasse and unveiled a plan to reduce trade friction on goods flowing from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, according to Bloomberg.
Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neil was formally appointed as Northern Ireland’s First Minister to become the first Irish nationalist to hold the post, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Elderson said that they see a lot is going well for banks in the area of climate risks even if no single bank has currently met all expectations.
ECB’s Vujcic said patience is needed and need to ensure there aren’t any second-round effects on inflation from wages before cutting interest rates, according to Bloomberg.
UK ONS Labour Force Survey re-weighting: Unemployment Rate in three-months to November 3.9% (prev. estimate 4.2%).
German Ifo writes that the lack of orders within manufacturing is becoming an increasing burden on the domestic economy
OECD raises 2024 global growth forecast to 2.9% from 2.7%, holds 2025 forecast at 3%. US 2024 forecast raised to 2.1% from 1.5%, 2025 held at 1.7%. EZ 2024 forecast cut to 0.6% from 0.9%, 2025 lowered to 1.3% from 1.5%. Chinese 2024 forecast held at 4.7%, 2025 held at 4.2%. Japan 2024 growth held at 1.0%, 2025 lowered to 1% from 1.2%. UK 2024 forecast held at 0.7%, 2025 held at 1.2%. Expects Fed to cut rates in Q2, ECB in Q3; policy will remain restrictive for some time.

DATA RECAP

German Imports MM -6.7% (exp. -1.5%); Exports MM -4.6% (exp. -2.0%); Trade Balance, EUR 22.2B (exp. 18.8B)
German HCOB Composite Final PMI (Jan) 47.0 vs. Exp. 47.1 (Prev. 47.1); HCOB Services PMI (Jan) 47.7 vs. Exp. 47.6 (Prev. 47.6)
French S&P Global Services PMI (Jan) 45.4 vs. Exp. 45 (Prev. 45); HCOB Composite PMI (Jan) 44.6 vs. Exp. 44.2 (Prev. 44.2)
Italian HCOB Services PMI (Jan) 51.2 vs. Exp. 50.6 (Prev. 49.8)
Spanish Services PMI (Jan) 52.1 vs. Exp. 52.1 (Prev. 51.5)
EU HCOB Services Final PMI (Jan) 48.4 vs. Exp. 48.4 (Prev. 48.4); Composite Final PMI (Jan) 47.9 vs. Exp. 47.9 (Prev. 47.9)
UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jan) 54.3 vs. Exp. 53.8 (Prev. 53.8); Global Composite PMI (Jan) 52.9 (Prev. 52.5)
EU Sentix Index (Feb) -12.9 vs. Exp. -15.0 (Prev. -15.8)
EU Producer Prices MM (Dec) -0.8% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. -0.3%); YY (Dec) -10.6% vs. Exp. -10.5% (Prev. -8.8%)
Turkish CPI YY (Jan) 64.86% vs. Exp. 64.52% (Prev. 64.77%); CPI MM (Jan) 6.7% vs. Exp. 6.49% (Prev. 2.93%)
Turkish PPI YY (Jan) 44.2% (Prev. 44.22%); PPI MM (Jan) 4.14% (Prev. 1.14%)

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

Fed Chair Powell said with the economy strong, they feel that they can approach the rate cut timing question carefully but repeated expectation that the March meeting is likely too soon to have confidence to start rate cuts and want more confidence before taking the very important step of starting rate cuts. Powell said they are making good progress on inflation and could move sooner if they saw labour market weakness or inflation persuasively coming down but added that more persistent inflation could mean a later move and that there is no easy, simple, obvious path, according to 60 Minutes interview. Furthermore, FT reported that Powell said the Fed expects to make three cuts this year and a CBS reporter noted that Powell suggested the first cut could occur around mid-year.
Fed’s Bowman (voter) said on Friday that she expects inflation to decline further with the policy rate held steady and it will eventually become appropriate to gradually cut rates if inflation continues to decline. Bowman also stated that upside risks to inflation include labour market tightness, easing financial conditions and geopolitics, while she will remain cautious on policy and watchful on data and revisions. Furthermore, she said reducing the policy rate too soon could mean more hikes will be needed in the future and she remains willing to raise the policy rate at a future meeting if needed, according to Reuters.
US Senate Majority Leader Schumer announced a bipartisan bill that toughens border security and grants new aid to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel, while the national security supplemental package totals USD 118bln and includes USD 60bln in military support to Ukraine and USD 14bln in security assistance for Israel, while it includes USD 30bln to strengthen US border security, according to a Reuters source.
US President Biden said he strongly supports the bipartisan deal and that it is the toughest and fairest set of border reforms in decades, but added that there is more work to be done to get it over the finish line, while it was separately reported that US Senator Murphy said the bill also authorises a quarter of a million more visas which will reunite thousands of families, according to Reuters.
US House Majority Leader Scalise said the Senate border bill will not receive a vote in the House, while House Speaker Johnson also said if this bipartisan bill reaches the House, it will be dead upon arrival.
US President Biden is reportedly weighing joining Las Vegas hotel workers if they go on strike on Monday, according to the union chief.

EARNINGS

UniCredit (UCG IM) – Q4 (EUR): Net 2.81bln (exp. 1bln), Revenue 5.98bln (exp. 5.56bln). NII 3.61bln (exp. 3.46bln). Adjusts FY24 Net “substantially in-line with FY23” (prev. guidance Net “at least in line”), Revenue 22.5bln (prev. guidance “broadly in line Y/Y”). The introduction of an interim dividend on FY24 earnings should allow for about EUR 10bln of calendar year distributions in 2024. Intends to distribute EUR 8.6bln to shareholders for 2023, pending approval. CEO says they expect rate cuts in H2’24. (Newswires) Shares +8.7% in European trade.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

US and UK carried out strikes against 36 Houthi targets which included missile systems, launchers, air defence systems, radar and buried weapons storage facilities, while the UK government said this was not an escalation, according to Reuters. US Central Command also announced its forces conducted a strike on four anti-cruise missiles which were prepared to launch against ships in the Red Sea.
Yemen’s Houthi spokesperson said the continuation of US-British aggression will not achieve any goal for the aggressors and Yemen’s decision to support Gaza will not be affected by the attacks, while the spokesperson added that Yemeni military capabilities are not easily destroyed and were rebuilt during years of tough war, according to Reuters.
White House’s Kirby said strikes on Friday against Iran-backed groups were just the first round of action and more action will follow, according to an interview with Fox News.
US National Security Adviser Sullivan said there will be more steps in the US response to the drone strike in Jordan and that the US would not describe it as an open-ended military campaign but added that if the US continues to see threats and attacks, they will respond to them. Sullivan also stated that Gaza humanitarian issues will be the top priority for Secretary of State Blinken on his trip and that the ball is in Hamas’ court on the hostage proposal, according to Reuters.
Iraqi military spokesperson said US air strikes constitute a violation of Iraqi sovereignty and pose a threat that could lead Iraq and the region into dire consequences. It was also reported that the Iraqi PM denied the US had coordinated air strikes with the Iraq government and called those claims lies, while the Iraqi PM said 16 were killed including civilians and 25 were wounded in the US aggression against Iraq’s sovereignty. Furthermore, Iraq’s Foreign Ministry summoned the US Charge D’Affaires to Baghdad and handed a note of protest against US attacks in Iraq, according to Reuters.
Iran strongly condemned the US military strikes which it said were violations of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria, while it added that US attacks represent another adventurous and strategic mistake by the US that will result only in increased tension in instability in the region. Syria’s Foreign Ministry also condemned the US attack on Syrian territory and stated that the US is fuelling conflict in the region in a very dangerous way.
Israeli army said its warplanes bombed an operational headquarters and military infrastructure of Hezbollah in the area of the village of Yaron and they also targeted a Hezbollah observation point in the village of Maroun al-Ras in southern Lebanon, according to Al Jazeera.

OTHER

Ukrainian President Zelensky said he was considering replacing several officials including state leaders and in the military.
G7 countries are reportedly drawing up plans to issue debt to help fund Ukraine using Russian assets as a backstop for the repayment, according to FT.
South Korea summoned the Russian envoy over Moscow’s comment criticising President Yoon’s remarks on North Korea.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin holds above USD 43k, with more pronounced strength in Ethereum (+1.3%) taking the coin to USD 2.3k.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks were mostly subdued after last Friday’s red-hot jobs report and the latest comments from Fed Chair Powell who reiterated the expectation that a March cut is likely too soon.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in the commodity-related sectors and as participants await tomorrow’s RBA decision, while Australian Services and Composite PMI data improved but remained in contraction territory.
Nikkei 225 was underpinned by recent currency weakness and with the biggest movers influenced by earnings.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially both pressured from early on in a continuation of the equity rout after Chinese stocks plunged to five-year lows despite the PBoC’s previously announced RRR cut taking effect, while the securities regulator pledged to stabilise the market and prevent abnormal market fluctuations although refrained from announcing specific measures. As such, Chinese markets later recovered from their lows which saw both benchmarks briefly turn positive.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

China’s securities regulator vowed to stabilise the market and prevent abnormal market fluctuations although refrained from announcing specific measures, while it will crack down on ill-intended short-selling and attract more investment by long-term capital. It was also reported that China is to step up financing support for major private projects, according to Bloomberg.
Indonesia Central Bank Governor Warjiyo said there should be room to cut rates, but they are waiting for the IDR to strengthen and stated that Indonesia’s economy is in an upward cycle with a peak seen in 2026.
Foxconn (2317 TW) January sales down 20.9% Y/Y; the outlook for the first quarter of this year is expected to decrease Y/Y

DATA RECAP

Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Jan) 52.7 vs. Exp. 53.0 (Prev. 52.9); Caixin Composite PMI (Jan) 52.5 (Prev. 52.6)
Australian Trade Balance (AUD)(Dec) 10.96B vs Exp. 11.00B (Prev. 11.44B); Exports MM (Dec) 1.8% (Prev. 1.7%); Imports MM (Dec) 4.8% (Prev. -7.9%)

2C ASIA AFFAIRS

MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT

2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/

NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

END

2e) JAPAN

JAPAN

END

3 CHINA

CHINA/IRAQ/SATURAY

China Poised To Take Further Control Of Iraq’s Key Southern Oil Assets

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 09:00 PM

Authored by Simon Watkins via OilPrice.com,

China is over the halfway mark in completing its strategically vital oil project in the critical Iraqi energy hub of Nasiriyah.
This facility will act as a storage hub and supply conduit for 3.0-3.5 million barrels of crude oil.
Even before the huge strategic importance of the new Nasiriyah facility, China will benefit from its massively enhanced presence there in the matter of increasing its oil supplies from southern Iraq, with the DhiQar Province being home to several huge fields

China is over the halfway mark in completing its strategically vital oil project in the critical Iraqi energy hub of Nasiriyah, at the heart of the some of the country’s biggest oil and gas fields and close to its main export terminal of Al Fao in Basra. According to the Iraq Ministry of Planning, the China Petroleum Pipeline Engineering Company (CPPEC) is now over 55 percent complete on the construction of the country’s biggest crude oil storage facility, located in Nasiryah city in DhiQar province.

This facility will act as a storage hub and supply conduit for 3.0-3.5 million barrels of crude oil that will then either go to export out of Basra Port or will be transported through pipelines to refineries and power plants in central and northern Iraq. It will also act as a logistical command centre for all of China’s extensive oil and gas projects in Iraq and for the build-out of multiple non-oil projects connected to the all-encompassing ‘Iraq-China Framework Agreement’, as analysed in full in my new book on the new global oil market order.

Even before the huge strategic importance of the new Nasiriyah facility, China will benefit from its massively enhanced presence there in the matter of increasing its oil supplies from southern Iraq, with the DhiQar Province being home to several huge fields. The Gharraf field is one, holding around 1.3 billion barrels of oil reserves and currently producing around 130,000 barrels per day (bpd), with plans to increase this to 230,000 bpd within the next two years. Lead operator Petronas of Malaysia said last May that it wants to sell its stake in the field. However, China already effectively controls what goes on at the site through major ‘contract-only’ awards secured by its companies.

The winning of multiple contract-only awards by Chinese firms at major oil and gas sites in Iraq was for a long time the preferred way for the country to covertly gain control over a site without provoking the ire of the U.S., while it still retained a strategic interest in Iraq, as also analysed in full in my new book on the new global oil market order. In Gharraf’s case, the China Petroleum Engineering and Construction Corporation (CPECC) was awarded a US$308 million engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning contract a while ago. Additionally, July 13 saw China’s Zhongman Petroleum and Natural Group sign a separate engineering and construction project for Gharraf. Back in 2015, Zhongman was also awarded a US$526.6 million drilling deal for Iraq’s supergiant West Qurna 2 oilfield. Further emboldened by the effective withdrawal of the U.S. from Iraq at the end of its combat mission in December 2021, the beginning of this year saw PetroChina take over the lead developer role at the neighbouring supergiant West Qurna 1 oilfield from the U.S.’s ExxonMobil. This was followed just a week later by the awarding of a major build-own-operate-transfer contract to a subsidiary of PetroChina to develop the Nahr bin Umar onshore gas field.

At the other end of the development scale in DhiQar Province is the supergiant Nasiriyah oilfield, discovered by the Iraq National Oil Company in 1975, with an estimated 4.36 billion barrels of reserves in place. Coming on stream in 2009 and listed on Iraq’s 2009-2010 fast-track plan, which aimed to raise its output to about 50,000 bpd, the first half of 2009 saw ENI, Nippon Oil, Chevron, and Repsol submitting bids to develop the field on an Engineering Procurement Construction (EPC) contract basis, with a consortium comprised of Nippon Oil, Inpex, and JGC Corporation looking set to win the contract before negotiations broke down again. The departure in 2014 of the divisive figure of Shia Islamist Nouri al-Maliki as prime minister, and his replacement by the seemingly more inclusive, although also Shia, Haider al-Abadi led to optimism in Iraq that the Nasiriyah project could move ahead again, but these hopes were also dashed.

China has long seen Nasiriyah as an important part of its overall plans for Iraq, which are essentially to turn it into a client state, as it has done with Iran, to create one giant oil and gas station for it in the Middle East, which it can also use for geopolitical pressure purposes against the U.S. In Iran’s case, China has been successful so far into effecting this transformation from it as sovereign state into a Middle Eastern equivalent of Hong Kong (a Special Administrative Region of China) through the all-encompassing ‘Iran-China 25-Year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement’ , as first revealed anywhere in the world in my 3 September 2019 article on the subject and analysed in full in my new book on the new global oil market order. China is using the same sort of arrangement for Iraq, as evidenced in the equally all-encompassing ‘Iraq-China Framework Agreement’ of 2021. This in turn, was an extension in scale and scope of the ‘Oil for Reconstruction and Investment’ agreement signed by Baghdad and Beijing in September 2019, which allowed Chinese firms to invest in infrastructure projects in Iraq in exchange for oil.

Following this, Iraq approved nearly IQD1 trillion (US$700 million) for infrastructure projects in the city of Al-Zubair in the southern Iraq oil hub of Basra. The Al-Zubair announcement came around the same time as the awarding by Baghdad of another major contract to another Chinese company to build a civilian airport to replace the military base in Nasiriyah – the capital of DhiQar Province. This airport project, China announced, would include the construction of multiple cargo buildings and roads linking the airport to the city’s town centre and separately to other key oil areas in southern Iraq, which it now controls. In the later discussions involved in the 2021 ‘Iraq-China Framework Agreement’, it was decided unanimously by both sides that the airport could be expanded later to be a dual-use civilian and military airport. The military component would be usable by China without first having to consult with whatever Iraqi government was in power at the time, a senior source who works closely with Iraq’s Oil Ministry exclusively told OilPrice.com at the time.

END

CHINA/MONDAY

Beijing Powerless As Chinese Stocks Crater After Trump Confirms He Will Impose 60% Tariffs

BY TYLER DURDEN

SUNDAY, FEB 04, 2024 – 10:57 PM

Last week’s dead cat bounce in Chinese stocks – after Beijing did everything but launch a multi-trillion fiscal stimmy bazooka (something it will do, later if not sooner) – is a distant memory, and as Asian markets open for trading in the news week, Chinese markets are cratering with the Shanghai Composite plunging as much as 3.1% to a fresh five-year low..

… while the broader CSI 1,000 Index is also in free-fall and also on pace to re-test the 2018 lows with as many as 990 of the 1000 companies of the index in the red.

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Putting the latest collapse in context, China’s market capitalization has sunk by just over $1 trillion in the space of 13 trading days, dragging the total value of the nation’s equities under $8 trillion on Friday, from just above $9 trillion on Jan. 16, as the authorities’ hand-wringing about equity declines simply concentrated investors’ minds on the apparent lack of any solutions for the downturn.

There were several catalysts for the plunge, first and foremost appears to be Trump confirmation that he would impose a tariff on Chinese goods of more than 60% if elected, signaling an increasingly hawkish tone against the top supplier of goods to the US.

Speaking in an interview on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, Trump was asked about a Washington Post report that he was considering a flat 60% tariff on Chinese goods imports; Trump’s response: “no, I would say maybe it’s going to be more than that.” The Bezos Post report on Jan. 27 sparked currency hedges by traders bracing for any market turbulence that policies under a second Trump presidency could set off.

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Trump, who currently has a solid lead over Biden and is emerging as the favorite to win the Nov 2024 election, rejected criticism that the moves would start a trade war, saying that he “did great with China with everything” during his presidency.

The US imposed multiple rounds of tariffs on Chinese goods during the Trump administration, “amounting to an $80 billion tax increase on $380 billion worth of imports,” according to the Tax Foundation, a Washington-based research group. China retaliated with tariffs on US goods imports.

While Trump was likely in his conventional hyperbolic mode, Chinese investors did not see it that way, and Chinese stocks plunged to fresh multi year lows, after the latest disappointment from Beijing which again pledged to stabilize markets after shares sank to a five-year low in chaotic trading on Friday, without offering any specifics on just how it plans to end the relentless selloff that’s erased more than $6 trillion of value and dented confidence in the world’s second-largest economy.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission vowed on Sunday to prevent abnormal fluctuations, saying it would guide more medium- and long-term funds into the market and crack down on illegal activities including malicious short selling and insider trading. The brief statement followed a sudden plunge of as much as 3.4% in the benchmark CSI 300 Index on Friday — and an outpouring of frustration on social media from individual investors just days before families across the country gather to celebrate the Lunar New Year.

“The statement sought to stabilize investor sentiment, but didn’t touch on fundamental problems including a lack of confidence and huge economic uncertainty,” said Shen Meng, director at investment bank Chanson & Co. “Those issues are the causes of abnormal market fluctuation.”

While authorities have taken piecemeal steps to support the economy and markets in recent months and have discussed a potential stock stabilization fund, they’ve yet to announce any major moves to stop the selloff. Weak economic data, simmering geopolitical tensions with the US, a worsening property crisis and an opaque crackdown on the financial sector have all weighed on investor sentiment.

As reported last week, China’s CSI 300 tumbled 6.3% in January, a record sixth straight month of losses. Shares then rallied briefly toward the end of the month after Bloomberg reported that authorities were seeking to mobilize about 2 trillion yuan ($278 billion) for a stabilization fund, but the market has since renewed its decline, reaching the lowest level since January 2019 as once again the Beijing trial baloon was just that, and nothing more. .

Meanwhile, the hail mary media bullshit and lies continued, and over the weekend, 21st Century Business Herald daily newspaper reported that authorities should set up a stabilization fund as soon as possible to boost market confidence, with an aim to get its size to 10 trillion yuan or more. Next up it will be 100 trillion in promises, then 1 quadrillion, only by then the SHCOMP will hit 0.

Meanwhile, in a sign of how exasperated some investors have become, thousands flocked to a social media account of the US embassy in Beijing to vent their frustrations over the economy and slumping share prices.

In the comment section of the embassy’s Weibo post on giraffe protection on Friday evening, some 53,000 users added remarks by Saturday evening, winning over 300,000 likes. China’s internet users often struggle to find a venue to air grievances about the economy or government performance, with official accounts of Chinese state agencies or media usually either disabling the comment function or only showing selected feedback.

In the end, the outcome is a clear one: either Beijing will watch powerless as 1 billion furious Chinamen start rioting in the streets as both the real estate and capital markets crater – and only then, after countless are dead, will it inject trillions into the economy, or someone in Beijing will come to their senses and do so before there is bloodshed… Not that that’s a viable solution of course: at best, that’s kicking the can by a few years, but in the grand scheme of things, can kicking is all the world has left. And now all eyes are now on China and every day that Beijing is just more talk and no action brings us closer to the world’s biggest and most violent social revolt seen in history.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

FRANCE

France Caves To Farmers As Ireland ‘Solidarity’ Protests Kick Off

SATURDAY, FEB 03, 2024 – 10:45 PM

Two of France’s main farming unions on Thursday agreed to suspend protests and lift road blockades across the country after the government announced measures the deemed “tangible progress” in the ongoing revolt against EU ‘climate-driven’ initiatives designed to wean society off of evil, non-bug-based, carbon-emitting food while China, India, and the rest of the world laughs.

In addition to France, protests have been held in Belgium, Portugal, Greece, Germany and elsewhere. Last week, tensions came to a head in Brussels when farmers threw eggs and stones at the European Parliament building, demanding that European leaders stop punishing them with more taxes and rising costs to finance the so-called ‘green agenda.’

After French farmers stepped up protests earlier in the week, the government promised on Thursday to extend protections – including better controlling imports and giving farmers additional aid, Reuters reports.

“Everywhere in Europe the same question arises: how do we continue to produce more but better? How can we continue to tackle climate change? How can we avoid unfair competition from foreign countries?,” said Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, announcing the new measures.

In response, France’s main farmers union, FNSEA, announced that it was time to lift the blockades and “go home.” Arnaud Gaillot of the Young Farmers’ union echoed the message, however both unions warned that other types of protests would continue, and they’d be back if the government doesn’t make good on their promises.

Meanwhile in Ireland, farmers began protesting Thursday evening.

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https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/france-caves-farmers-ireland-solidarity-protests-kick

#BREAKING #Ireland JUST IN: Farmers’ protests began in Ireland. pic.twitter.com/rJ6lsCnkgG— The National Independent (@NationalIndNews) February 1, 2024

“There’s a general dissatisfaction with the level of environmental regulation that is being heaped on farmers, the low margins, and (the) resulting low income the farmers have been suffering from for a very long time now,” said Cathal MacCarthy, media director for the Irish Creamery Milk Suppliers Association, adding “There will be a great deal of sympathy and solidarity with the aim and ambitions of the protests both in Ireland and on the Continent,” EURACTIV reports.

“They feel they are being regulated out of business by Brussels bureaucrats and Department of Agriculture officials who are far removed from the reality of day-to-day farming,” said Irish Farmers’ Association (IFA) President Francine Gorman on Wednesday, ahead of the protests.

The concerns of the Irish beef and dairy farmers echo the concerns of other European farmers who have been protesting for weeks.

MacCarthy said Irish beef and dairy farmers also believe they are not being compensated fairly for the agrifood products they cultivate, given the increased costs involved in production as a result of environmental regulations.

“We need senior politicians to face consumers and say, ‘Lads, listen, the cost of producing this food is X, that has to be paid, and the margin that allows farmers to live (has to be paid), but we can’t just be dependent on what the supermarket feels like charging their customers,’” he said. -EURACTIV

“We can either continue to have cheap food, or we can have environmentally sustainable food, but we can’t have both,” said MacCarthy.

END

POLAND

Now it is Polish farmers who are planning a general strike and block the Ukraine border. They are furious with grain coming in

Polish Farmers Plan General Strike, Blockade Of Ukraine Border

MONDAY, FEB 05, 2024 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Ella Kietlinska via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Polish farmers from the Solidarity trade union plan a general strike starting this Friday with a blockade of border crossings between Poland and Ukraine, joining similar protests all over Europe.

The presiding officers of the farmers’ trade union “Solidarity” unanimously adopted a resolution on Wednesday announcing a general strike of farmers throughout the country, according to a union’s statement.

The strike will begin on February 9 with a blockade of all border crossings between Poland and Ukraine, along with blockades of roads and highways across the country between Feb. 9 and March 10, the trade union said in the statement on Thursday.

“Our patience has run out. Brussels’ position on the last day of January 2024 is unacceptable for our entire agricultural community,” the trade union said in the statement.

“Additionally, the passivity of the Polish authorities… regarding the import of agricultural produce and food products from Ukraine leave us with no other choice but to declare a general strike.”

Solidarity also demanded that the Polish government ensure the profitability of Polish agriculture and rebuild the Polish agro-processing sector, as, in its opinion, they are not protected under the “European Green Deal,” which is currently being implemented.

“Polish family farms are the basis of the country’s food security,” the trade union said. “We are fighting for our common good, which is to protect Polish family farms, often multi-generational farms, from collapse and bankruptcy.”

The European Green Deal is the European Union’s initiative to fight climate change and environmental degradation, which the EU considers “an existential threat to Europe and the world,” according to a policy statement by the European Commission.

“The European Commission [the EU’s executive body] has adopted a set of proposals to make the EU’s climate, energy, transport, and taxation policies fit for reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030, compared to 1990 levels.” with the ultimate goal of “no net emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050,” the statement said.

Farmers in France, Belgium, Portugal, Greece, and Germany have been protesting against the constraints placed on them by EU measures to tackle climate change, rising costs, and unfair competition from abroad. Polish farmers have been particularly vocal about the impact of cheap food imports from neighboring Ukraine.

Reactions to Protest Announcement

The European Commission said it was listening closely to the concerns expressed by farmers in protests taking place in several member states.

“In relation to the specific concerns outlined by farmers at the present time, the Commission is assessing possible next steps,” a spokesperson for the Commission wrote in an emailed response to Reuters’ request for comment.

Polish Minister of Agriculture Czesław Siekierski said in an interview with RMF FM on Saturday that the Polish government would try to stop blockades of roads, and it has already asked the farmers’ trade unions for a meeting.

Mr. Siekierski told RMF FM that farmers” are protesting for a good cause” as grain exported from Poland is pushed out from markets by cheaper grain from Ukraine.

The government has been conducting bilateral talks with Ukraine and is also in talks with the EU, but it needs more time because it took office only seven weeks ago, Mr. Siekierski told RMF FM.

Former Polish minister of agriculture Artur Balazs and Chairman of the European Fund for the Development of Polish Villages said in an interview with “Polskie Radio 24” that agricultural production in Ukraine does not comply with EU’s phytosanitary and animal welfare regulations.

For the EU farmers, however, compliance with the Union’s agricultural standards amounts to a large portion of production costs, Mr. Balazs told the Polish radio station, adding that only the EU can solve this problem.

EU Greening Concession

On January 31, the European Commission proposed to allow EU farmers to derogate for one year from certain EU agricultural rules adopted in 2023, according to a statement.

The EU’s rule that obligates farmers to keep 4 percent of their arable land fallow or unproductive is set to be temporarily replaced by a rule requiring farmers to allocate 7 percent of their land to growing, without using pesticides, nitrogen-fixing crops– such as lentils, peas, or favas– and catch crops, the statement said. “Catch crops are plants that grow between two main crops” and can serve as fodder for animals or green manure.

Farmers who follow the new rule will still be eligible for EU’s subsidies, the statement said.

The European Commission recognized in the statement the difficulties and uncertainties framers face due to weather events such as droughts, wildfires, and floodings in various parts of the Union, high energy and input prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as inflation and increased costs of living.

“Today’s measure offers additional flexibility to farmers at a time when they are dealing with multiple challenges,” Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said in the statement.

Copa and Cogeca, the organization of the EU’s farmers and agri-cooperatives, said in a statement that the EU’s decision to allow farmers to derogate from keeping a portion of their land fallow or unproductive came late in the agricultural calendar and is limited.

According to the European Commission, the measure will be adopted upon its approval by EU members through voting.

Copa and Cogeca called in the statement on EU member states to “further strengthen this proposal.”

Capping Imports From Ukraine

On the last day of January, the European Commission also proposed to renew the suspension of import duties and quotas on Ukrainian exports to the EU for another year but to cap the import of sensitive agricultural products from Ukraine—poultry, eggs, and sugar–at levels from 2022 and 2023, according to a statement.

If imports of these products exceeded the average import volumes in 2022 and 2023, “tariffs would be reimposed to ensure that import volumes do not significantly exceed those of previous years,” the statement said.

The EU lifted import duties on Ukrainian exports in 2022 following Russia’s invasion, the Commission said.

The measure proposed by the EU to create a mechanism to limit the rising imports of some foods is welcomed by Copa and Cogeca, but its members found it insufficient, the organization said in a statement.

Copa and Cogeca said that excluding cereals and oilseeds from the mechanism limiting imports from Ukraine is “unacceptable.”

“While we believe that it is in the EU’s duty and interest to continue supporting Ukraine, the solution to the current situation concerning the impact of the imports on EU producers must be effectively addressed,” Copa and Cogeca said.

The statement said that the EU’s two legislative bodies, the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union, comprised of ministers from each member country, will consider the proposal.

The organization called on both institutions to include cereals and oilseeds in the measure and use the yearly average of the two earlier years—2021 and 202—as the base to cap the imports from Ukraine.

Copa and Cogeca also demanded that any products imported above this threshold must be exported outside the EU.

Reuters contributed to this report.

end

5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/HAMAS/GAZA/SATURDAY

(JERUSALEM POST)

Female combat soldiers contribute to Hamas eliminations in Gaza Strip

Female combat troops from the 414 Field Intelligence unit identified a number of Hamas terrorists who attempted to covertly transport weapons hidden in bags.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF

IDF soldiers operating in the Gaza Strip February 3rd, 2024. (photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT) — IDF soldiers operating in the Gaza Strip February 3rd, 2024.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)

Dozens of terrorists have been eliminated all over the Gaza Strip, including by female combat soldiers, over the past day, according to the latest batch of updates announced by the IDF Saturday.

During targeted raids in the northern and central Gaza Strip over the last day, IDF troops from the Nahal brigade and the 401st brigade killed dozens of terrorists and destroyed numerous anti-tank missile launchers.

During a targeted raid on an office building used by Hamas, the troops located military equipment, weapons, and Hamas documents.

Female combat soldiers stopped Hamas from transporting weapons

Separately, during an incident in the Shati area, female combat troops from the 414 Field Intelligence unit identified a number of Hamas terrorists who attempted to covertly transport weapons hidden in bags. In response, the troops directed an aircraft to the scene, which promptly struck and eliminated the terrorist cell.

In the western Khan Yunis area, troops from the Givati Brigade killed approximately 20 terrorists. During one of the operations, a terrorist cell fired an anti-tank missile at an IDF vehicle. The troops quickly responded with live fire toward the three terrorists who were responsible, killing them. IDF soldiers raid a building in the Gaza Strip, February 3rd, 2024 (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

Furthermore, in the area of Khan Yunis, IDF fighter jets struck a Hamas compound used to conduct combat, which was also harboring tunnel entrances. Additionally, soldiers from the 646th Brigade located AK-47 rifles, explosive devices, and additional weapons used by Hamas.

West of Khan Yunis, but not inside the city, soldiers from the Paratrooper Brigade killed several terrorists. During a targeted raid on a site near the area of the city, the troops located weapons, RPGs, grenades, military equipment, and scuba diving equipment used by Hamas for attempted infiltrations from the sea.

Go to the full article >>

END

ISRAEL GAZA/HAMAS

IDF drops ‘newspaper’ on Gaza, calling on residents to ‘wake up’ to Hamas: ‘They destroyed everything’

The Israel Air Force has airdropped a “newspaper” for residents of central Gaza called “The Reality,” Hebrew-language media reports, citing Palestinian reports.

The leaflet reportedly calls on Gazans to “wake up,” and says that Hamas “kills your children,” the Kan public broadcaster reports.

The pamphlet includes articles on the EU sanctions on Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the increase in humanitarian aid, and refuting the claims of the terror group’s spokesman.

“They burned the people’s money on tunnels and weapons,” the newspaper says.

“They destroyed everything good, beat you and tortured you, abandoned your families in the streets, and they are hiding in tunnels,” the leaflet says. “Are you silent? All this is just a drop in the ocean. Your future is in your hands.”

גלצ

@GLZRadio

צה”ל מנסה לגרום לתושבי רצועת עזה להתקומם נגד חמאס – חיל האוויר פיזר כרוז בצורת עיתון בשם “המציאות” ובו כתוב: “הם הרגו את הילדים שלכם, הרסו כל טוב, הפקירו את משפחותיכם בחורבות בזמן שהם מוגנים במנהרות, שרפו את הכסף של העם על מנהרות ואמל”ח – ואתם עדיין שותקים?”

@Doron_Kadosh

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7:36 AM · Feb 3, 2024

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END

ISRAEL HAMAS/GAZA

Soldier killed in southern Gaza fighting, raising ground op toll to 225

IDF says troops raided a Khan Younis building used by a senior Hamas commander; air force and navy strike terror targets in Strip

By EMANUEL FABIAN FOLLOWToday, 12:49 pm

Sgt. First Class (res.) Shimon Yehoshua Asulin (IDF)

Fighting continued in Gaza on Sunday with the IDF announcing the death a day earlier of Sgt. First Class (res.) Shimon Yehoshua Asulin, a 24-year-old resident of Beit Shemesh.

Asulin, of the Combat Engineering Corps’ 924th Battalion, was killed in battle in the southern Gaza Strip, the army said.

He was the 225th soldier to have been killed in Israel’s ground operation in Gaza.

As fighting and strikes against the terror group continued across the Strip, the IDF said troops raided a building in Khan Younis used by a senior Hamas commander.

The Paratroopers Brigade raided the multistory building, which the IDF said was used by Hamas’s Khan Younis Brigade commander to manage the fighting against Israel. In the building, the IDF said, the troops located weapons and military equipment.

In a separate raid, the IDF said, the soldiers found a cache of RPGs in an apartment. The IDF said the Paratroopers Brigade also killed several Hamas gunmen in close-quarters combat over the past day, as well as an operative who hurled two grenades and approached soldiers with a knife.

IDF troops seen operating in Gaza in this handout photo cleared for publication on February 4, 2024. (IDF)

The Givati Brigade, also operating in Khan Younis, killed a gunman approaching them and directed an airstrike on two more operatives heading toward a building, the IDF said.

Also in the southern Gaza city, the IDF said a fighter jet struck and killed a Palestinian Islamic Jihad sniper.

Meanwhile, in northern Gaza, the IDF said the 401st Armored Brigade killed seven Hamas gunmen over the past day.

The IDF said the Israeli Air Force carried out several strikes across Gaza over the past day, including Hamas rocket launching positions and other infrastructure.

The Navy also carried out strikes along the Strip’s coast, aiding the ground forces operating in the area. The IDF said Navy vessels hit several Hamas and Islamic Jihad sites, including a building where operatives were gathered.

Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry said that at least 92 people were killed overnight, including in what the terror group’s media office claims was an Israeli airstrike on a kindergarten in Rafah where displaced people were sheltering.

There was no immediate response from the IDF over the claim. The figure could not be independently verified.

Hundreds of thousands of Gazans have poured into the southern city of Rafah to escape fighting elsewhere in the Strip after the IDF urged them to evacuate other areas in the months since the war began.

The United Nations has said the town is becoming a “pressure cooker of despair.”

The European Union on Saturday expressed deep concern over the Israeli military’s apparent intention to take its battle against Hamas to Rafah at Gaza’s border with Egypt. The prospect of a ground war in the city has raised fears about where the population would go to find safety.

A young man carries gas canisters in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on February 4, 2024 (Mohammed ABED / AFP)

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned that conflict is likely to spread throughout the region unless a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is reached, after US airstrikes hit dozens of sites in Iraq and Syria used by Iranian-backed militias and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards following a deadly drone attack on US soldiers in Jordan.

Escalations between the US and Iranian proxies began after war broke out between Israel and Hamas when some 3,000 members of the terrorist group infiltrated Israel from Gaza on October 7 under a barrage of rockets, killing approximately 1,200 people and taking another estimated 253 hostage.

The war has led to the deaths of more than 27,000 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip since October 7, according to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry. The terror group’s figures are unverified, don’t differentiate between civilians and combatants, and list all the fatalities as caused by Israel — even those believed to have been caused by hundreds of misfired rockets or otherwise by Palestinian fire.

Israel has said it has killed some 10,000 Hamas members, in addition to some 1,000 killed in Israel in the aftermath of the terror group’s October 7 invasion and onslaught.

People drive in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on February 4, 2024. (Mohammed ABED / AFP)

Amid reports of an imminent announcement by Hamas on whether the terror group will agree to a proposal for a deal that would see hostages released in exchange for an extended pause in fighting, increased humanitarian aid for Gaza, and the release of Palestinian prisoners, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is due to make his fifth crisis visit to the Middle East to push for the proposal, the State Department has said.

French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne, whose country has close ties with Lebanon, is also making a trip through the region, according to a spokesman.

Times of Israel staff and agencies contributed to this report

end

ISRAEL/HAMAS

Times of Israel

Hamas said to insist on deal that will end war, withdraw IDF troops from Gaza

Terror group yet to respond to Paris proposal for longer truce, release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian security prisoners; Likud ministers spar over terms

By TOI STAFF4 February 2024, 11:26 pm

Israelis attend a rally calling for the release of Israelis kidnapped and held by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, at Hostages Square in Tel Aviv, February 3, 2024. (Miriam Alster/ Flash90)

Hamas on Sunday night appeared set to rebuff a deal that would free Israeli hostages without bringing a full halt to the nearly four-month war in Gaza, with a senior official from the terror group telling Al-Jazeera that internal discussions over a proposed agreement were continuing.

“Consultations with other factions regarding the proposal are ongoing,” the Hamas official was quoted as saying, adding that a response would be sent “soon.”

Several Hebrew media outlets reported that, contrary to earlier speculation, Hamas was unlikely to offer an immediate response to the proposal, which was thrashed out by top officials from Israel, Qatar, Egypt, and the United States during talks in Paris last week.

The reports said Hamas’s Gaza leader, Yahya Sinwar, would demand solid guarantees for an end to the war and the withdrawal of Israeli troops before releasing any more hostages taken captive in the terror group’s brutal October 7 onslaught — which Israel has said it will not do.

A source close to Hamas told the Palestinian Quds News Network that the sides were not close to agreement and confirmed that Hamas would demand an end to the war.

Channel 12 reported that internal debate among senior Hamas officials about the current proposal had largely been silenced, with the group’s leaders outside of the Strip recognizing that the final decision rests with the person with the capacity to free hostages — Sinwar.

Yahya Sinwar, head of Hamas in Gaza, greets his supporters upon his arrival at a meeting in a hall on the sea side of Gaza City, on April 30, 2022. (AP Photo/Adel Hana, File)

In Israel, meanwhile, the war cabinet was meeting on Sunday evening, with ministers said to be discussing, among other matters: whether it would be possible to return to full combat operations after a lengthy pause; the imperative that any agreement include all of the 132 hostages abducted on October 7 who are still held in Gaza; and the identity of the terrorists who could be released from Israeli prisons under the deal.

During Sunday morning’s cabinet meeting, Likud’s Justice Minister Yariv Levin, Education Minister Yoav Kisch, Transportation Minister Miri Regev, Foreign Minister Israel Katz, and Diaspora Minister Amichai Chikli reportedly insisted that any substantive decisions regarding a hostage deal would have to be approved by the full cabinet, an Israeli official told The Times of Israel. The demand included full cabinet approval for any further meetings abroad by Mossad chief David Barnea with international intermediaries.

During the meeting, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told ministers that the ratio of three Palestinian security prisoners released for every hostage freed — as was the case with the November hostage deal — should be the reference point for any further agreements. The weeklong November truce saw 105 Israeli and foreign hostages freed, but only 80 of them within the provisions of the deal, and the release of 240 women and underage Palestinian security prisoners.

“We’re making a tremendous effort and working with many means to free our hostages, but not at any cost,” the prime minister said, according to leaks from the meeting.

The war cabinet meets at the IDF’s Kirya military headquarters on January 25, 2024. (Amos Ben-Gershom/GPO)

He emphasized that Israel would not end the war until all its aims are accomplished — “the elimination of Hamas, bringing back all our hostages, and ensuring that Gaza will never again represent a threat to Israel.”

He also denied media reports that Israel had agreed to release large numbers of terrorists.

A Hamas source has said the current three-stage truce proposal under discussion includes an initial six-week pause in fighting that would see some hostages released in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, with potential extensions of the temporary ceasefire. However, there have been numerous reports suggesting the agreement would include different terms.

According to Channel 12, Economy Minister Nir Barkat, also of Likud, demanded that the deal include the release of all of the hostages in a single phase, rather than stages contingent on certain terms. He also called for the cessation of humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza while the war is ongoing.

In recent weeks, protesters and some far-right lawmakers and activists have gathered at border crossings and at the Ashdod port in an attempt to block trucks heading to Gaza, claiming that moves to alleviate pressure on Gazan civilians, including through the delivery of humanitarian assistance, serve Hamas’s interests.

Police prevent activists from blocking trucks carrying humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip at the Kerem Shalom border crossing between Israel and Gaza, in southern Israel, January 29, 2024. (AP/Tsafrir Abayov)

“You give gifts to Hamas — and Sinwar celebrates,” Barkat was quoted as saying.

Also speaking against the phased plan in Sunday’s cabinet meeting, Diaspora Minister Chikli said, “We have to look at the war as a marathon. The real challenge is not at the start, but from the 36th kilometer.”

“That’s where we are. The big test is now, and if we now stop the fighting for a month… we won’t finish the marathon and we won’t be able to fight with such force,” Chikli was quoted as saying.

According to other cabinet members, quoted by Ynet, Netanyahu orchestrated the opposition to the terms of the hostage deal voiced during the cabinet meeting in order to signal that his hands were tied.

“If it’s what I hear in the media, I won’t be able to support the deal,” Education Minister Kisch was quoted as saying.

War broke out following Hamas’s devastating October 7 massacres, which saw some 3,000 terrorists burst across the border into Israel from Gaza by land, air and sea, killing some 1,200 people and seizing 253 hostages, mostly civilians, under the cover of a deluge of thousands of rockets fired at Israeli towns and cities.

Burnt cars are left behind at the site of the attack three days earlier by Palestinian terrorists on the Supernova desert music festival, near Kibbutz Re’im in the Negev Desert in southern Israel, on October 10, 2023. (JACK GUEZ / AFP)

In response, Israel launched an offensive aimed at removing Hamas from power in Gaza and releasing the hostages.

On Saturday night, thousands of people gathered again in Tel Aviv for protests criticizing Netanyahu’s handling of the war and the plight of the hostages. Family members of the hostages, with wide public support, are calling on Israel to reach an agreement with Hamas to bring them home.

It is believed that 132 hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7 remain in Gaza — not all of them alive. Four hostages were released prior to that, and one was rescued by troops. The bodies of eight hostages have also been recovered and three hostages were mistakenly killed by the military.

The IDF has confirmed the deaths of 29 of those still held by Hamas, citing intelligence and findings obtained by troops operating in Gaza. One more person is listed as missing since October 7, and their fate is still unknown.

Agencies and Lazar Berman contributed to this report.

EGYPT/ISRAEL

‘Hamas’s hands are covered in Egypt’s blood’, says Egyptian ex-MP

“The people of Gaza are paying the price for Hamas’s stupidity.”

By MAARIV

Tawfik Okasha (photo credit: ARAB MEDIA) — Tawfik Okasha(photo credit: ARAB MEDIA)

Tawfik Okasha, an Egyptian media personality and former MP, heavily criticized Hamas over their actions on October 7 and the consequences that followed in an interview with KAN News on Tuesday.

When commenting on the current war, as well as the October 7 massacre, Okasha said, “I mourn for every death on the Israeli side and every death on the Palestinian side, but I do not mourn Hamas personnel that have been killed because they are a terror organization that has profited from the Palestinian issue. They are an organization that turned Egypt into a no man’s land, and its hands are covered in the blood of Egypt. I will not forget it.”

Go to the full article >>

END

ISRAEL/Hezbollah

IDF says it hit Hezbollah sites in Lebanon amid continued rocket fire toward northern Israel

By EMANUEL FABIAN

The IDF says it carried out airstrikes against several Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon today, in response to continued attacks on northern Israel.

A Hezbollah command center, where operatives were gathered, and a nearby rocket launch site used in a recent attack, were hit in the southern Lebanese village of Yaroun, the IDF says.

In Marwahin and Ayta ash-Shab, two Hezbollah observation posts were hit in strikes, the IDF says.

Earlier today, rockets and missiles were fired by Hezbollah at the northern communities of Bar’am and Zar’it, landing in open areas and causing no injuries, according to the IDF.

בשטח לבנון. במסגרת התקיפה, הותקפו שתי עמדות תצפית במרחבים מרווחין ועיתא א-שעב לצד מפקדה צבאית במרחב יארון, בה פעלו מחבלי ארגון הטרור ועמדת שיגור ממנה בוצעו שיגורים לשטח הארץ >>

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7:36 AM · Feb 3, 2024

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WATCH: IDF destroys Hezbollah headquarters, outposts in southern Lebanon/SUNDAY

The IDF targeted military headquarters, infrastructure, and outposts belonging to the terrorist group Hezbollah.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3662339&url=https://www.jpost.com/IDF striking Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon February 3, 2024. (IDF Spokesperson)

Israeli fighter jets struck several targets in southern Lebanon on Saturday, destroying Hezbollah infrastructure, the IDF spokesperson’s unit said.

Among the Hezbollah infrastructure targeted by the IDF were military headquarters and outposts.

During the operation, the IDF struck two military outposts near the towns of Marwahin and Ayta ash Shab, as well as a military headquarters in the area of Yaroun, the Israeli military reported.

On the same day three missile launches were detected coming from Lebanon falling in open areas near Bar’am and Zar’it, no casualties were reported.Members of Hezbollah attend the funeral of Wissam Tawil, a commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces in Lebanon, January 9, 2024 (credit: REUTERS/AZIZ TAHER)

Intermittent northern skirmishes

Intermittent skirmishes in the north have led to the evacuation of over 80,000 residents of the North since October 7, with over 80 houses taking direct hits from Hezbollah missiles.

An internal Justice Ministry memo leaked on Thursday recommended increased preparations in the north for worsening conditions, including possible blackouts.Go to the full article >>

end

LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH //ISRAEL

Possible deal in the making!

(Times of Israel)

In Israel, US envoy said to report progress in talks to remove Hezbollah from border

Amos Hochstein meets with Gallant in Tel Aviv amid shuttle diplomacy efforts to deliver agreement, defuse roiling tensions on Israel’s northern border.

By TOI STAFF and EMANUEL FABIAN FOLLOW
Today, 6:29 am

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant (R) and military officials meet with US envoy Amos Hochstein (L) in Tel Aviv, February 4, 2024. (Defense Ministry)

US special envoy Amos Hochstein was in Israel this weekend for talks with Israeli officials on a developing framework to push Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy, away from Israel’s northern border amid roiling tensions and daily exchanges of fire.

Hochstein, who was heavily involved in shepherding talks that culminated in Israel and Lebanon demarcating a maritime border in 2022, has been engaged in shuttle diplomacy between Israel and Lebanon since last month in an effort to prevent an escalation of the conflict.

He met with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in Tel Aviv for ongoing discussions on Saturday. Channel 12 reported that the US envoy has conveyed “signs” of a possible diplomatic solution, which will include Hezbollah moving back from the border. There was no official confirmation of this.

According to the report, senior Israeli officials were feeling optimistic about a potential deal for the first time since the start of the war almost five months ago.

Hebrew-language media reported Saturday that the brewing US-brokered proposal includes three phases: first, an interim agreement that will include an 8-kilometer (4.9-mile) to 10-kilometer (6.2-mile) withdrawal of Hezbollah forces from areas near the boundary with Israel; second, an increase in the deployment of UN forces and the Lebanese army in the area; and third, the return of evacuated residents to their homes in northern Israel and south Lebanon. The framework will also include talks on demarcating an actual land border between Israel and Lebanon and possible US-led incentives for Beirut to agree to a deal.

Israel and Lebanon never agreed on a land border, following Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon in 2000, keeping to a UN-enforced ceasefire “Blue Line” instead.

Channel 12 reported Saturday that Israel has tentatively accepted the framework, pending developments on a separate deal brokered by Qatar and Egypt to pause fighting in Gaza and free hostages held by Hamas in Gaza.

Senior US envoy Amos Hochstein, left, gestures as he meets with Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, in Beirut, Lebanon, January 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Hezbollah-led forces have been attacking Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a near-daily basis since October 8, a day after its ally Hamas launched its October 7 massacre, killing 1,200 people across northern Israel and abducting 253 people of all ages. Hezbollah says its attacks are to support Gaza amid the war Hamas triggered through its attack.

As Israel launched a military campaign, including a ground incursion, to destroy Hamas, remove it from power in Gaza, and release the hostages, it also rushed forces to the north and evacuated some 80,000 northern residents as a precaution.

Top Israeli officials have repeatedly threatened to go to war in Lebanon after the campaign to root out Hamas in Gaza is over, with the aim of driving Hezbollah away from the border in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the Second Lebanon War in 2006. They have increasingly warned that if the international community does not push Hezbollah — which, like Hamas, is sworn to Israel’s destruction — away from the border through diplomatic means, Israel will take action.

In a readout of his meeting with Hochstein, Gallant’s office said the defense minister was thankful for Hochstein’s efforts and reiterated that Israel was “committed to our citizens” and “ready to resolve this crisis via diplomatic understandings.”

“However, we are also prepared for any other scenario,” Gallant warned.

The defense minister asserted Friday that a potential pause in the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza will not necessarily apply to the ongoing hostilities with Hezbollah.

“If Hezbollah thinks that when there’s a pause in fighting in the south, we will hold our fire against it [too], it’s sorely mistaken,” Gallant said.

“Until we reach a situation in which it’s possible to restore security for residents of the north, we will not stop. Whether we reach this through a [diplomatic] arrangement or military means, we will [restore] calm,” Gallant said.

This handout photo shows Defense Minister Yoav Gallant meeting with soldiers in the IDF’s Alpine Unit at Mount Hermon, February 2, 2024. (Ariel Hermoni/Defense Ministry)

On his trip to Israel this weekend, Hochstein also met Saturday with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Isaac Herzog, and war cabinet minister Benny Gantz.

According to Ynet, Gantz also expressed to Hochstein his appreciation for the special envoy’s work and for the US’s role in addressing the challenges in the region, chief among them Iran. Gantz told Hochstein that the state of Lebanon is responsible for the terrorist acts launched from its territory and warned that Israel would not hesitate to act to remove Hezbollah as a threat if it is not pushed back from the “Blue Line.”

Hochstein was first dispatched to the region last month to try to soothe tensions and work out an agreement. He met with Lebanese and Israeli officials and said both countries “prefer” a diplomatic deal to end hostilities.

A few weeks after his visit, Lebanese officials said Hezbollah rebuffed Washington’s initial proposal for stopping clashes with Israel but said it remains open to US diplomacy to avoid a ruinous war.

A proposal was at the time communicated to Hezbollah that its fighters move seven kilometers (4 miles) from the boundary, Lebanese officials said. That would still leave fighters much closer than Israel’s public demand of a 30-kilometer (19-mile) withdrawal to the Litani River, as stipulated in the 2006 UN resolution.

Hezbollah dismissed both ideas as unrealistic, the officials said. The group has long ruled out giving up weapons or withdrawing fighters, many of whom hail from the border region and melt into society when there are not hostilities.

So far, the skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah have resulted in six civilian deaths on the Israeli side, as well as the deaths of nine IDF soldiers and reservists. There have also been several attacks from Syria, without any injuries.

Hezbollah has named 179 members who have been killed by Israel during the ongoing skirmishes, mostly in Lebanon but some also in Syria. In Lebanon, another 22 operatives from other terror groups, a Lebanese soldier, and at least 19 civilians, three of whom were journalists, have been killed.

On Saturday, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said three troop divisions had been deployed to the northern border, in a strident warning to Hezbollah, while detailing strikes that Israel says have killed hundreds of terror operatives seeking to enflame the restive border.

The comments included rare acknowledgement of dozens of airstrikes inside Syria against the terror group. Hagari said the IDF is working to “reshape the security reality” on the northern border to allow some 80,000 Israelis displaced by months of incessant attacks to return home.

Israel will be “ready to attack immediately” if provoked, Hagari warned. “We do not choose war as our first priority, but we are certainly prepared.”

According to Hagari, since fighting on the northern border began in the wake of Hamas’s October 7 onslaught, the IDF has targeted more than 3,400 Hezbollah sites and struck more than 150 cells, killing some 200 operatives, mostly members of Hezbollah.

END

WEST BANK/ISRAEL MONDAY

33 suspects arrested throughout West Bank overnight

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFFEBRUARY 5, 2024 11:36

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?

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Soldiers from the IDF, the Israel Security Service (Shin Bet), and Border Police arrested 33 wanted persons throughout the West Bank, including a man suspected of shooting at security forces, in an operation throughout Monday night, the IDF announced on Tuesday.

Arrests occurred in numerous cities in the West Bank, including Hebron, Ein Beit Ilma, and Kfar Beit Omer.

Following the arrests, security forces also confiscated an undisclosed amount of terrorist funds and a bag of ready-to-use Molotov cocktails.

The IDF also announced that the suspects that were arrested were transferred for further investigation by the security forces and that there were no casualties to Israeli forces.

END

ISRAEL/LEBANON

IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari: ‘We’ve eliminated 200 Hezbollah terrorists’/SUNDAY

“We are working to stop Hezbollah’s supply of ammunition from Iran,” he continued. “Wherever Hezbollah is – we will act, anywhere in the Middle East.”

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFFEBRUARY 3, 2024 21:02Updated: FEBRUARY 3, 2024 21:34

IDF Spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari (photo credit: IDF) — IDF Spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari(photo credit: IDF)

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The Israeli military has killed 200 Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon, IDF spokesman Rear-Admiral Daniel Hagari stated during a Saturday evening press briefing.

“Instead of one division, we deployed three divisions along the border, with tens of thousands of soldiers,” Hagari said. “We suppress attacks on the borderline by terrorists who have tried to infiltrate Israel. We’ve attacked more than 150 terrorist squads and eliminated more than 200 terrorists and commanders. Since the beginning of the war, we have attacked more than 3,400 targets in Lebanon.

“We are working to stop Hezbollah’s supply of ammunition from Iran,” he continued. “Wherever Hezbollah is – we will act, anywhere in the Middle East.”

IDF then attacked Hezbollah military targets

Shortly after Hagari’s statements, the IDF reported that Israeli fighter jets attacked a military structure belonging to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon in the Taybeh region.

Also, during the previous few hours, a number of launches were reportedly identified as having crossed from Lebanese territory toward the areas of Mount Dov, Even Menachem, and Yir’on. There were no casualties, and Israeli forces attacked the sources of the shooting.

Earlier that day, Israeli fighter jets struck several targets in southern Lebanon, successfully destroying Hezbollah infrastructure.

Smoke rises during an exchange of fire between the IDF and terrorists from the Hezbollah organization on the border between Israel and Lebanon, November 11, 2023 (credit: Ayal Margolin/Flash90)

During the operation, the IDF struck two military outposts near the towns of Marwahin and Ayta ash Shab

end

USA/IRANIAN BACKED MILITIA/SYRIA AND IRAQ/SATURDAY

Almost all of the IRCG personnel have been sent back to Iran. This counter strike will have no deterrence whatsoever.

(Jerusalem Post)

US launches counter-strikes in Iraq and Syria, officials announce

While the US strikes did not target any locations inside Iran, they are likely to increase concern about tensions in the Middle East.

By REUTERS

FEBRUARY 2, 2024 22:15

Updated: FEBRUARY 3, 2024 01:21

A pair of US Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles fly over northern Iraq after conducting airstrikes in Syria (photo credit: REUTERS) — A pair of US Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles fly over northern Iraq after conducting airstrikes in Syria(photo credit: REUTERS)

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The United States started carrying out retaliatory strikes on Friday in Iraq and Syria, three US officials said, after deadly attack in Jordan that killed three US troops and injured some 40 others.

The strikes are believed to be just the first in a multi-tiered response by President Joe Biden’s administration in response to the weekend attacks that were carried out by Iran-backed militants.

While the US strikes did not target any locations inside Iran, they are likely to increase concern about tensions in the Middle East spiraling from Israel’s more than three-month-old war with Hamas terrorists in Gaza.

Two of the officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said a formal statement was expected in the coming hour.

‘American aggression’ resulted in casualties – Syrian media

Syrian state media also said on that the ‘American aggression’ on number of sites on Syria’s desert areas and the Syrian and Iraqi border resulted in a number of casualties and injuries.

A member of the Iraqi security forces stands guard on the Iraqi side of Iraq-Syria border, January 27, 2022. (credit: REUTERS/KHALID AL-MOUSILY)

It came just hours after Biden and Pentagon leaders attended the remains of the three American soldiers killed in the Jordan attack returning to Dover Air Force Base in Delaware.

The Jordan attack was the first deadly strike against US troops since the Israel-Hamas war erupted in October and marked a major escalation in tensions.Advertisement

The United States has assessed that the drone that killed three of its soldiers and also wounded more than 40 other people was made by Iran, US officials have told Reuters.

The Iraqi military said early on Saturday that US air strikes were launched at Iraqi border areas, warning that the attacks could ignite instability in the region.

“These airstrikes constitute a violation of Iraqi sovereignty, undermine the efforts of the Iraqi government, and pose a threat that could lead Iraq and the region into dire consequences,” Iraqi military spokesman Yahya Rasool said in a statement.

Biden’s, Kirby’s statements on the attack

President Joe Biden said on Friday he had directed military strikes on facilities in Iraq and Syria affiliated with the groups that attacked US forces and said the response would continue.

“Our response began today. It will continue at times and places of our choosing,” Biden said in a statement. “The United States does not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world. But let all those who might seek to do us harm know this: If you harm an American, we will respond.”

The United States informed Iraq ahead of strikes on Friday against three militant sites inside that country, the White House said, just minutes after the Iraq’s military condemned them as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.

“We did inform the Iraqi government prior to the strikes,” White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters.

Kirby also said that over 80 strikes were carried out by US forces at seven facilities, three in Iraq and four in Syria.

* end

Iraq says 16 killed, 25 wounded in US strikes on pro-Iran targets

By AGENCIES

Sixteen people were killed, among them civilians, and 25 injured in overnight US airstrikes on pro-Iran targets in Iraq, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s office says.

In a statement, it condemns the strikes as a “new aggression against Iraq’s sovereignty” and denies that they were coordinated by the Baghdad government beforehand with Washington, calling such assertions “lies.”

The presence of the US-led military coalition in the region “has become a reason for threatening security and stability in Iraq and a justification for involving Iraq in regional and international conflicts,” the statement adds.

The US military launched an air assault on dozens of sites in Iraq and Syria used by Iranian-backed militias and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in the opening salvo of retaliation for the drone strike that killed three US troops in Jordan last weekend.

end

(ZEROHEDGE)

US Strikes At Least 85 Targets In Iraq & Syria, Including From B1 Bombers

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 05:15 PM

Update(1715ET): Importantly, there have been no reports of US airstrikes in Iran this evening, and US officials say that the Pentagon does not plan to hit targets inside the Islamic Republic. But the strikes on eastern Syria and in western Iraq were large, and targeted IRGC assets and personnel and their affiliates. According to a CENTCOM statement, the initial wave, which started at 4pm US Eastern Time (interestingly, just after markets closed), included over 85 targets, with some of them hit more than once:

At 4:00 p.m. (EST) Feb. 02, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted airstrikes in Iraq and Syria against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and affiliated militia groups. U.S. military forces struck more than 85 targets, with numerous aircraft to include long-range bombers flown from United States.

The airstrikes employed more than 125 precision munitions. The facilities that were struck included command and control operations centers, intelligence centers, rockets, and missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicle storages, and logistics and munition supply chain facilities of militia groups and their IRGC sponsors who facilitated attacks against U.S. and Coalition forces.

The Biden administration is promising this is not the end of it, and the campaign could last for days or more

END

(ZEROHEDGE)

US Strikes Killed At Least 39, Including “Many Civilians,” As Iraq Warns Stability Is On “Brink Of The Abyss”

SATURDAY, FEB 03, 2024 – 01:25 PM

Widespread reports say at least 39 were killed in the Friday US airstrikes on Iran-linked targets across Western Iraq and Eastern Syria, which used over 125 bombs and precision munitions, according to a Pentagon statement.

There are reportedly civilians among the dead. The Baghdad government on Saturday said that 16 Iraqis, among them civilians, were killed – while on the other side of the border the Syrian Defense Ministry confirmed that both militants and civilians were killed but without providing a figure. The Syrian military said that “many civilian and military martyrs” died. The anti-Assad monitoring group, UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said that the Syria strikes killed 23 militia fighters.

The official readout by US Central Command (CENTCOM) described that “The facilities that were struck included command and control operations centers, intelligence centers, rockets, and missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicle storages, and logistics and munition supply chain facilities of militia groups and their IRGC sponsors who facilitated attacks against U.S. and Coalition forces.”

The strikes lasted for over 30 minutes, having begun at 4pm Eastern Time, and additionally utilized B-1B bombers which flew over 6,000 miles after departing from Dyess Air Force Base in Texas, among other aerial assets. This was supposedly for the element of “surprise” – despite the White House taking nearly a week to respond.

On Saturday it has come to light that the Pentagon let Iraqi government officials know shortly before the strikes began. The Biden administration has come under fire especially from hawkish GOP Congress members over telegraphing the operation to the point that IRGC officers could vacate bases and military assets. According to new reporting in NBC:

Iraq did receive prior warning of American airstrikes, contrary to the claims of Iraqi government officials, a senior administration official told NBC News today.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani earlier described the White House’s assertion that Iraq had been notified of the United States’ intention to conduct airstrikes as “lies,” as the foreign ministry called in the top U.S. diplomat in Iraq to protest what they called the “blatant aggression” against Iraqi sovereignty.

But according to one administration official, the Iraqi government was given short-notice warning that the U.S. would strike. “It wasn’t a huge heads up,” they said, “but it is not accurate to say they weren’t informed.”

An official speaking to NBC further said that list of targets were tied directly Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as a retaliatory response to the killing of three American soldiers on the Jordan-Syria border Sunday. Importantly, according to Al Jazeera, “Even though Washington said all its intended targets were supported by the Quds Force command of the IRGC, no Iranian personnel are believed to have been killed.”

President Biden has said, “The United States does not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world.” He added: “But let all those who might seek to do us harm know this: If you harm an American, we will respond.” Iran and Iraq are now warning that US action is stoking instability. According to FT:

The Iraqi government said on Saturday that 16 people, including civilians, were killed in the US attacks, warning that they would “put security in Iraq and the region on the brink of the abyss”.

But as journalist and geopolitical commentator Aaron Maté points out it was Washington which has kept Americans in harm’s way to begin with, by refusing to finally and fully exit Iraq as the government and its people have urged, and by maintaining the oil and gas occupation of eastern Syria. Maté concludes that essentially Biden has sacrificed American troops and Mideast security for US-Israeli hegemony:

What remains undoubtedly clear is that Biden has put US troops in harm’s way and provoked a wider regional escalation due to his devotion not only to Israel’s mass murder campaign in Gaza, but broader regional US hegemony. And because the bipartisan US establishment is in lockstep behind that agenda, the only question at hand is what “level” of aggression to commit.

The US government is well aware that it has alternatives to enforcing the Israeli genocide of Gaza and the American military presence across the region.

According to the Times’ Baker, US officials “have said for months that they did not believe Iran wanted a direct war with the United States.” Instead, these officials acknowledge, “Iran has used its proxy forces to keep up the pressure on the United States and Israel as Israel continues to pound Hamas in Gaza.” By “pound Hamas,” Baker means Gaza’s civilian population, the main victims of the US-supplied armaments that regularly pound Gaza.

In Yemen, Biden understands that his strikes are failing to deter the Ansar Allah movement’s (aka the Houthis’) blockade of Red Sea ships in protest of the Gaza genocide. Days after the US strikes began, Biden was asked if the bombings are working. “Well, when you say, ‘working’ — are they stopping the Houthis? No,” Biden said. “Are they gonna continue? Yes.”

This means that likely this large-scale tit-for-tat will continue and could easily spiral toward direct US-Iran war, which would also draw in Israel, and perhaps Russia would have something to say as well, given its military presence in Syria.

* * *

Below: the Biden administration’s strikes have received mixed – but mostly positive – reaction from the generals. Here are a few initial reactions courtesy of Peter Tchir’s Academy Securities…

“President Teddy Roosevelt famously said, “Speak softly and carry a big stick.” President Biden and Secretary of Defense Austin certainly did not speak softly in the run-up to today’s U.S. attacks in Iraq and Syria. We must now wait to see how much of its “big stick” the U.S. Central Command uses in the coming days. It took five days for the U.S. to conduct the retaliatory strikes, and the timing may be tied to today’s dignified transfer of our three U.S. service members. The strikes were focused on Iranian-backed Shia militia groups, and the timing certainly gave those groups (and any IRGC support personnel) time to evacuate the target areas. Iran continues supplying the weapons to the proxies that are used in these attacks against U.S. forces. If the administration is concerned with escalating to a hot war with Iran and does not want to attack Iran itself, they should at least put a strangle-hold on Iranian oil sales. President Biden must make this painful enough to Iran to get them to back their proxy forces off.” – General Robert Walsh

“These strikes included a significant number of targets and weapons used by the United States. Interesting that the B-1 was used because flying directly from the U.S. provides an additional layer of surprise. Hopefully this sends a message to Iran and the IRGC that it is not in their best interest to continue supporting attacks against U.S. forces. Hard to tell at this point what IRGC leadership personnel were targeted.” – General David Deptula

“The strikes were well coordinated against a set of targets focused on the IRGC Quds Force, the major trainer and supplier to the other proxies. The targets hit all facets of command and control, supply points, launch locations, and missile/UAV storage locations. We will see an analysis of battle damage and follow-up strikes to ensure that we achieved the desired effects. This included our full complement of capabilities such as aircraft launching from the U.S. directly to targets in the AOR. As expected, this was an increase in scale and scope, and a strike against the Iranian IRGC Quds Force, not just the proxies they support. This is more than just a single targeting effort; I am sure that there will be more in the next few days.” – General Frank Kearney

END

MONDAY/USA //Syria

this will not go over well: 7 USA trained fighters killed by the Iranian backed militia strike (drone attack)

Biden the Meek will likely not respond forcefully

(zerohedge)

Seven US-Trained Fighters Killed In Drone Attack On Occupied Syrian Oil Field

MONDAY, FEB 05, 2024 – 10:40 AM

A key and very evident theme out of the Red Sea is that the US has lost ‘deterrence’ and perhaps never had it to begin with. Despite over a dozen waves of large-scale Western coalition attacks on Houthi positions, the Yemeni Shia rebels are vowing more attacks on commercial shipping, as we’ve reported.

It is the same with Iran-aligned groups in Syria and Iraq, even after the Pentagon on Friday hit 85 targets with 120 bombs. This marked the single biggest US attack on ‘Iranian proxies’ in the region since the Gaza war began, but it didn’t take long for these very groups to strike back.

The “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” as early as Saturday announced it attacked bases that house US soldiers in Erbil; however, some local sources have disputed that the attack took place, or at least came near where Americans were housed.

Importantly, President Biden in his statement on the Friday strikes underscored “Our response began today. It will continue at times and places of our choosing.”

This means the escalating tit-for-tat will continue to spiral, as the latest overnight attack against an American base in northeast Syria also demonstrates:

Seven fighters from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces were killed in an attack on an American base in eastern Syria overnight, a war monitor said Monday.

Seven SDF special forces “commandos” were killed and 18 others wounded in “a drone attack after midnight” on the Al-Omar oil field, the largest US-led coalition base in the country, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, updating an earlier toll.

One UK-based war monitor concluded that it marked the first major “attack by pro-Iran groups against American bases after the US strikes on Syria and Iraq.”

Al-Omar has come to symbolize the years-long US military occupation of Syria’s only oil and gas rich region, which before the war was an area producing just enough energy for Syria’s domestic consumption. The Pentagon has used it as a base of operations to train its local proxy, the Kurdish-dominated SDF.

While the Pentagon officially maintains this is still part of the ‘counter-ISIS’ mission, the reality is that it has long been a counter-Iran mission, and part of ongoing efforts to isolate and punish the Assad government. Essentially it is resource theft which seeks to deny the ‘pro-Iran axis’ access to its own natural resources.

In the wake of this latest attack in eastern Syria, US officials have said Washington has a right to respond to the aggression. Such attacks on American outposts in this region are nothing new, but this is certainly one of the deadliest. It follows a week ago the deaths of three US Army soldiers at Tower 22 base on the Syria-Jordan border.

In the new Al-Omar attack, there doesn’t appear to have been any American casualties, or at least none which have been publicly disclosed.

END

HOUTHIS/THE WEST

This would be disastrous for the world as 17% of internet flows through the pass surrounding Yemen. Ladies and Gentlemen: it is about time that Biden takes out Iran

(zerohedge)

Houthis Vow ‘Escalation’ Despite US Strikes, Could Sabotage Western Internet Cables In Red Sea

MONDAY, FEB 05, 2024 – 12:10 PM

Despite more weekend rounds of US heavy strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen, the militant group aligned with Iran is vowing more attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. As we previously detailed, the US-led coalition attempting to protect the vital transit waterway launched dozens of fresh missile and airstrikes, with most of them coming on Saturday against at least 36 targets.

A Houthi spokesman, Yahya Saree, responded soon after on Sunday, saying “These attacks will not deter us from our moral, religious and humanitarian stance” in support of Palestinians in Gaza. He vowed that it won’t pass “without response and punishment.”

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

Additionally, Bloomberg has cited members of the Houthi political council to say the group now considers that there’s “open war” and that its military capabilities remain undeterred – though this isn’t the first time the Shia group has declared ‘war’ on Israel and its backers since Oct.7.

Yet a separate Houthi official has said the goal of disruption of regional trade as revenge for Israel’s crimes in Gaza will continue “no matter the sacrifices it costs us” and vowed escalation, according to Fox. Mohammed al-Bukhaiti’s statement said further, “The US-British coalition’s bombing of a number of Yemeni provinces will not change our position, and we affirm that our military operations against Israel will continue until the crimes of genocide in Gaza are stopped and the siege on its residents is lifted, no matter the sacrifices it costs us.”

Washington is at the same time saying more strikes are on the horizon:

“We intend to take additional strikes, and additional action, to continue to send a clear message that the United States will respond when our forces are attacked, when our people are killed,” White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told NBC’s “Meet the Press” program on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Houthis are touting that they have more tricks up their sleeve and ways to “punish” the Western coalition and those supporting Israel.

“Telecom firms linked to the UN-recognized Yemen government have said they fear Houthi rebels are planning to sabotage a network of submarine cables in the Red Sea critical to the functioning of the western internet and the transmission of financial data,” The Guardian reports.

According to the specific Houthi threat:

The warning came after a Houthi-linked Telegram channel published a map of the cables running along the bed of the Red Sea. The image was accompanied by a message: “There are maps of international cables connecting all regions of the world through the sea. It seems that Yemen is in a strategic location, as internet lines that connect entire continents – not only countries – pass near it.”

Yemen Telecom said it had made both diplomatic and legal efforts during the past few years to persuade global international telecom alliances not to have any dealings with the Houthis since it would provide a terrorist group with knowledge of how the submarine cables operated. It has been estimated that the Red Sea carries about 17% of the world’s internet traffic along fiber pipes.

Any potential operation to sever the submarine cables, but which are sometimes no thicker that a garden hose, would likely be a sophisticated deep underwater technical campaign, but is widely believed within the realm of possibility given the Houthis’ determination thus far.

One security analyst told The Guardian that the “cables have been kept safe more due to the Houthis’ relative technological underdevelopment than for a lack of motivation.”

Speaking of the cables, the report notes that “One of the most strategic is the 15,500-mile (25,000km) Asia-Africa-Europe AE-1 that goes from south-east Asia to Europe via the Red Sea.”

If already the Houthis have no fear of launching anti-ship missiles at US and UK Navy destroyers, then certainly they could have their eyes next set on sabotaging the globe’s internet infrastructure, and it’s likely on a matter of time.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA

end

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES

GLOBAL ISSUES

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

King Charles diagnosed with cancer

Since his parents, both “vaccinated,” “died suddenly” some months later, and since other royals (Kate Middleton, Sarah Ferguson) have also been stricken by mysterious ills, this news is quite striking

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Not many British royals have been hit with cancer since the 18th century. The small number diagnosed with it since then include Prince Albert, son of Queen Victoria, and Edward VIII, who, having abdicated out of love, made news thereafter as the Duke of Windsor. (There’s a handy overview of royal cancer cases at https://www.unofficialroyalty.com/royal-cancer-deaths/.)

Scroll down to read my prior post about the deaths of Queen Elizabeth and Prince Philip. Meanwhile, let’s regard this news as a reminder that we often don’t know what we think we know—such as the “fact” that such high players, with all their billions, have somehow been spared the lethal “vaccination” given countless commoners, and were, instead, injected merely with saline. Many a commenter has asserted that big stars, leading politicians, CEOs and other privileged types have not been jabbed for real—a speculation that appears to be unfounded.

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The sad fact—and, perhaps, the crucial fact—is that we don’t know what’s going on, because we can’t, since “our free press” doesn’t tell us, since, by and large, they know just as little as we do (while they too keep on dropping dead, and/or “suddenly” contracting “rare” aggressive cancers, after they were jabbed for real, along with everybody else).

In short, we need to know what we don’t know, and that it’s possible to be too knowing, which can only keep us ignorant.

King Charles diagnosed with cancer

February 5, 2024

King Charles III, 75, has been diagnosed with cancer, Buckingham Palace announced Monday.

“During The King’s recent hospital procedure for benign prostate enlargement, a separate issue of concern was noted,” the palace said in an emailed statement. “Subsequent diagnostic tests have identified a form of cancer.”

The statement also did not specify what stage the cancer was found.

Separately, Buckingham Palace said Charles did not have prostate cancer.

“His Majesty has today commenced a schedule of regular treatments, during which time he has been advised by doctors to postpone public-facing duties,” the statement added.

According to the statement, the king wanted to share his diagnosis in part to avoid speculation on his condition but also “in the hope it may assist public understanding for all those around the world who are affected by cancer.”

Charles is grateful for the swift intervention of his medical team and their expert care, according to Buckingham Palace.

No further details are being shared about his treatment or prognosis, a palace spokesperson said, but the king returned to London on Monday to begin out-patient treatment.

Charles ascended the throne last May in a coronation ceremony held months after the death of his mother, Queen Elizabeth II. Elizabeth reigned until her death at the age of 96 in September 2022. She was Britain’s longest-reigning monarch with 70 years on the throne.

Kate is still in recovery, but her husband, Prince William, is set to return to his royal duties by attending the London’s Air Ambulance Charity Gala Dinner on Wednesday.

Kensington Palace previously said the Princess of Wales is unlikely to return to her royal duties before Easter, on March 31. There was no date specified for the king’s return to duties.

Buckingham Palace noted that many of the king’s planned engagement will have to postponed or canceled, apologizing in advance to anyone inconvenienced as a result. Charles’ wife, Queen Camilla, will continue with her full public duties as he undergoes treatment.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/king-charles-diagnosed-cancer-rcna137293

Is Taylor Swift’s romance with Travis Kelce another psy-op? That idea may be insane (unless it’s not)

Will she endorse “Joe Biden,” as the Democrats are hoping? And might she also somehow aid Big Pharma, like her (apparent) boyfriend, Kansas City Chiefs tight end and very-high-paid Pfizer shill?

MARK CRISPIN MILLERFEB 3

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In their desperation to pump life (or something like it) into the zombie project of keeping Old “Joe Biden” in the White House, Democrats are very busy lobbying Taylor Swift, to get her to endorse him (as she did in 2020), and otherwise help out (as with getting Swifties registered to vote). That’s the plan according to the New York Times—and to the Republicans, who have been warning zealously that such a “psy-op” is definitely in the works.

end

Kim Kardashian has psoriasis; Aaron Lazar has ALS; Nicole Eggert (“Baywatch”) has more cancer; Cecile Richards (Planned Parenthood) has brain tumor; Trump speech interrupted by “medical emergency”

WWE’s Jim Ross has cancer surgery; WWE’s Marty Jannetty may lose his leg (after his sister died); wrestler Rick Bassman has brain cancer; MN senate leader stepping down since return of cancer; more

MARK CRISPIN MILLERFEB 4

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UNITED STATES

Kim Kardashian has psoriasis

Kim Kardashian is a rare pro-vaccine celebrity, but her husband Kanye West is running an anti-vaxx presidential campaign

July 8, 2020

https://www.businessinsider.com/kim-kardashian-pro-vaccine-husband-kanye-anti-vaxx-presidential-campaign-2020-7

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New Onset and Exacerbations of Psoriasis Following COVID-19 Vaccines: A Systematic Review

September 1, 2022

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9434078

Donald Trump Cognitive Test Speech Interrupted by Medical Emergency: Video

January 28, 2024

Donald Trump had his speech interrupted on Saturday because somebody in the crowd needed medical attention. The former president was speaking in Las Vegas ahead of the GOP state primary on February 8. He was discussing cognitive tests and said there should be mandatory examinations for people running for government roles. Both Trump and President Joe Biden’s cognitive ability has been the subject of much political analysis, with both making a number of gaffes and verbal slips during campaign speeches. He paused and pointed towards someone in the crowd and said: “Medical. Medical please,” he added. “Are they OK? Doctor in the house, thank you.” “I love those people, you know they’re waiting outside for 10 hours, 12 hours? I love you, darling,” he added. “We don’t want to see anybody, even the other side, we don’t want to see them hurt,” he continued. After around three minutes he resumed the speech, saying: “All right, let’s get going.”

Link

Aaron Lazar Says He Won’t ‘Fight’ ALS After His Diagnosis: ‘There’s Nothing to Beat’

February 2, 2024

Aaron Lazar is opening up about his diagnosis with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), and revealing why he’s not focused on trying to fight the disease for which there is no cure, but instead move through life with courage and hope. The stage veteran — known for two decades of roles on Broadway and on tour in musicals like The Light in the Piazza, Dear Evan Hansen, Les Misérables, A Little Night Music and The Last Ship — went public in January with the news that he had the progressive neurogenerative disorder, after being diagnosed two years ago. During a candid interview on The Broadway Show with Tamsen Fadal, the 47-year-old actor and singer explained he’s since been on a “healing journey” focused on taking care of his mind, body and spirit. The life expectancy from the time of diagnosis for a person with ALS is three to five years, according to the ALS Association. Death generally results from degeneration or paralysis of the respiratory muscles.

Link

‘Young and the Restless’ alum Jordi Vilasuso asks for prayers as baby daughter is admitted to NICU

January 25, 2024

“The Young and the Restless” alum Jordi Vilasuso and his wife, Kaitlin Vilasuso, are asking fans for prayers as their daughter has been admitted to the NICU for a partially collapsed lung. The soap star, who announced Lucy’s arrival earlier this month, shared that their baby’s health scare is due to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). “We found out Monday that Lucy had RSV and by Monday night she had been admitted to the hospital w/ difficulty breathing,” the couple wrote on Instagram alongside a photo of Lucy lying in an incubator and hooked up to various machines. “Last night, things unexpectedly took a turn for the worse and she was moved to NICU w/ what the doctors described as a partially collapsed right lung. I am still struggling to believe this as I type.”

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Update to a previous report:

‘Baywatch’ star Nicole Eggert reveals more cancer has been found in her lymph nodes

February 1, 2024

“Baywatch” actress Nicole Eggert revealed Thursday that more cancer has been found in her lymph nodes after her recent breast cancer diagnosis. Per the Daily Mail, the 52-year-old “Charles in Charge” star told Inside Edition that doctors had found more disease as she undergoes treatment for a “very rare” form of breast cancer, which she was diagnosed with in December. Eggert told the outlet she “kicks herself” for not regularly self-examining her breasts and reflected on the moment a mammogram and three biopsies determined she had stage 2 cribriform carcinoma breast cancer. “My heart dropped, I lost all hearing, everything sank. It’s named invasive cribriform carcinoma. It’s very rare,” she continued. The mother of daughters Dilyn, 25, and Keegan, 12, admits she “panics” about her cancer diagnosis and worries about her kids living without her. “[Dilyn’s] an adult, but I have a 12-year-old at home where I’m the only caregiver. I have no family. I have nothing,” she explained. “It’s just so overwhelming, and I’m just doing everything I can not to spiral.”

Link

Cecile Richards Is Working Through It

January 28, 2024

Six months ago, on a family vacation in Maine, Cecile Richards, the long-serving president of Planned Parenthood, discovered that her hand had seemingly forgotten how to write. Alarmed, she and her husband, Kirk Adams, drove back to New York and, eventually, went to the ER at NYU. As Richards was getting wheeled into surgery for a brain tumor two days later, her eldest daughter, Lily, an assistant secretary for public affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department, was in labor at another hospital. By the time mother and daughter were each discharged, Richards, 66, had her first grandchild and a diagnosis of glioblastoma: incurable brain cancer for which the median survival rate is 15 months.

Link

WWE legend has surgery to remove cancer from his right hip – as he tells wrestling fans he’s thankful for their support, just three years on from skin cancer diagnosis

February 2, 2024

Jim Ross is dealing with cancer once again - three years after a skin cancer diagnosis

WWE legend Jim Ross has undergone cancer surgery on his right hip, he shared Thursday. Ross, 72, was previously diagnosed with skin cancer in 2021, though he announced later that year that he’d beaten the disease. Now, it appears the commentator is battling more health issues, as he publicly thanked fans for their well wishes. ‘Had cancer surgery this morning on my right hip. All went well,’ he wrote on X. In December, Ross revealed on his ‘Grilling JR’ podcast that he was dealing with problems to his leg following his skin cancer diagnosis. He also suffered a fall over the summer. ‘I’m getting an MRI next week to make sure that there’s no damage to the bone in my leg, just as a precaution,’ he said, via Wrestling Inc. ‘I don’t want to deal with bone cancer, for God’s sake, and we’re pretty sure that isn’t the case.’ Ross, who had spent time away from his commentary role with AEW to recover, also shared that he was having blood sugar problems. ‘Two weeks ago, my blood sugar was 300,’ he said. ‘That’s death material, I was told. Ignorance is bliss sometimes.’ Ross was inducted into the WWE Hall of Fame in 2007.

Link

Marty Jannetty Says His Sister Has Passed Away & His Leg May Be Amputated

January 31, 2024

WWF Prime Time Wresting 8-28-1989 The Rockers Shawn Michaels Marty Jannetty

Marty Jannetty recently revealed that his leg issues have gotten worse and added that one of his sisters has passed away. The WWE alumnus posted to Facebook and said that he’s going through a difficult time, stating that doctors told him yesterday that they want to amputate his leg and that his brother called him last night to say their sister passed. Jannetty wrote: “I can’t hardly formulate a sentence right now, it’s a tough time in life, yesterday day they told me they want to cut my leg off…struggling with that my brother called last night and, my sister died in his arms basically. I don’t even know what I’m saying right now. I don’t think I’m doing the podcast show tomorrow night, please forgive me, I do loves y’all…I just can’t. I’m so lost right now PS- Many of y’all know both my sisters, Diane is still hanging in tough as a mo-fo, Diane STAY STAY STRONG, KEEP BELIEF, YOU TOO GENO! Jannetty has previously had issued with his ankle; it’s not clear the nature of his current leg issues though he noted in a post back in November that his foot was hurting.

No age reported.

Link

Rick Bassman Battling Stage One Brain Cancer

January 30, 2024

On his Facebook page, long-time wrestling promoter, trainer, and manager Rick Bassman announced that he had been diagnosed with stage one brain cancer in October. He stated that he completed his first, and hopefully last, six-week course of radiation. Haus of Wrestling also reported the news. In the report, Haus of Wrestling notes that the “big” tumor that formed on his brain is in a spot that makes it risky to operate on. There could be life-long damage if the procedure goes wrong. The report states that the goal of the radiation treatment is to make the tumor small enough so that it is either safe to operate on or completely harmless. Bassman is set to have another MRI on February 9, and the next steps will be decided from there.

No age reported.

Link

Minnesota Senate leader to step down from post, citing return of cancer

February 2, 2024

Minnesota Senate Majority Leader Kari Dziedzic is stepping down from her leadership post to focus on “serious” health challenges related to her cancer diagnosis. In a statement issued Friday, the Minneapolis Democrat said she learned in the last week that the cancer that kept her out of the public view for part of the 2023 session has returned. Dziedzic, a veteran legislator and the daughter of former Minneapolis Council Member Walt Dziedzic, was elected caucus leader after Democrats captured a majority in the November 2022 elections. In mid-March of last year, just months into her tenure, she announced that she had undergone surgery after receiving a cancer diagnosis. She later revealed that several internal organs were removed during the procedure. She continued to lead the caucus during her recovery, and returned to the Senate floor in May for the final weeks of the session.

No age reported.

Link

January 29, 2024

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

DR. PAUL ALEXANDER

Dr. Yeadon over the target GAIN! Comments on “Hypothetical “Disease X”: The WHO Pandemic Treaty Is a Fraud. Demands Compliance for “Next Pandemic” by Michel Chossudovsky “Pandemics are not a thing.
Think back through your life. How many pandemics have there been? Covid wasn’t one…I don’t believe there has ever been even one.” Agreed, we have never had a pandemic historically!
DR. PAUL ALEXANDER
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Dr. Yeadon Comments on “Hypothetical “Disease X”: The WHO Pandemic Treaty Is a Fraud. Demands Compliance for “Next Pandemic” by Michel Chossudovsky
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MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

Done With Orban

SATURDAY, FEB 03, 2024 – 08:45 AM

by Maartje Wijffelaars, Senior Economist at Rabobank

As widely expected, the Bank of England kept its Bank rate unchanged yesterday, at 5.25%. Just like the US Fed did on Wednesday and the ECB last week. The main difference was, however, that in the UK the votes were not unanimous: two members voted in favour of a hike, one for a cut, and six to keep the rate unchanged. The MPC reiterated that it remains prepared to adjust monetary policy as warranted by economic data to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably, but dropped the warning that more hikes may be needed to get there. So despite the votes in favour of a hike, the BoE adopted a more dovish tone.

Looking ahead, our UK strategist Stefan Koopman expects the BoE to keep its policy rate on hold until September, after which it will start a gradual cutting cycle. This is later than the market is pricing for. It also means we expect the BoE to start cutting in the same month as the ECB (September), yet later than the Fed (June). Together with current market pricing and the UK economy performing better recently than the Eurozone, this informs our view that there is scope for EUR/GBP to edge lower to the 0.84 level on a 6-month view.

Indeed, January’s PMI surveys suggest that activity in the Eurozone contracted at the start of the year (composite PMI at 47.9), while the UK economy started on a relatively good footing (PMI composite at 52.5). So while we still foresee significant structural economic weakness for the UK, in the short term it could well outperform the currency block. This is largely due to weakness in Germany (composite PMI at 47.1), while French surveys (composite PMI at 44.2) also paint a gloomy picture. Germany was also the weakest performer among large member states last year, with its economy falling 0.3% q/q in 23Q4.

For the Eurozone overall, 2023’s ending was like a party without cake. It managed to avert a forecasted contraction, and hence a recession, yet stagnation is as good as it got, against the backdrop of a significant increase in interest rates since mid-2022.

Going forward, recent survey data suggests that the downturn is bottoming out, but weakness certainly persists. Although we believe that consumer spending growth should start to recover over the course of 2024, there is more uncertainty when it comes to investment activity. In a publication published earlier this week we zoom in on investments, looking at recent developments and the outlook. In short, we expect investment growth to recover moderately over the coming quarters, even though past rate hikes are still working their way through the economy and self-financing capacity of firms has reduced. Drivers are a significant drop in capital market rates over the past months, untapped potential in the Recovery and Resilience Facility, and last but certainly not least, strategic motivations.

Somewhat stronger economic figures than expected – especially in Southern Europe – combined with January’s inflation figures, support our view that the ECB will wait a bit longer to start cutting than the market currently expects.

Inflation continued on its downward path in January, but published figures underscore our view that the last mile is the longest. Headline inflation dropped from 2.9% y/y in December to 2.8% y/y in January, which is higher than consensus of 2.7% and our own estimate of 2.6%. Core inflation dropped from 3.4% y/y in December to 3.3% y/y in January, slightly higher than the consensus of 3.2% y/y but in line with our in-house projection.

While we foresee a further decline over the coming months, we think that the tight labour market and indications that wage growth is likely to stay elevated this year, make further progress towards target rather slow. We forecast inflation of 2.7% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025.

The main risk to our outlook comes from the trade disruptions in the Red Sea, a theme discussed more than often in this Global Daily. The Red Sea trade disruptions has caused shipping prices for containers from China to Europe to quintuple. Manufacturers are also already signalling that the disruptions are causing delivery delays and that the higher costs are beginning to feed through here and there. For the time being, however, there is still little evidence that trade disruptions in the Red Sea will result in a significant inflationary shock. Freight rates account for less than 1% of the final cost of manufacturing output, demand is weak, and while energy prices have increased over the past weeks, they are still below autumn’s peak – let alone the peaks witnessed in 2022.

Yet, the experience of 2021-22 shows that this is not a sufficient condition for stability! To the contrary, if trade disruptions spread, the inflationary effects may be greater if companies face a shortage of inputs. Moreover, while overall logistics account for a limited share in final output costs, price increases and disruptions to flows of certain goods can have a much larger impact on inflation than they would have on average. Take diesel for example. Due to relatively much weaker availability of fuel tankers than container vessels, problematic disruptions to the inflow of diesel could well come faster than to the import of consumer goods or inputs thereof. This is especially given the already historically low diesel inventories and weak refinery capacity on the continent – contrary to still adequately perceived stocks of inputs and finished goods. Moreover, the fact that diesel is required for logistics, from trucks to tractors, disruptions in the flow of diesel could be especially problematic and cause non-linear effects.

Given the uncertain second and third order effects, it is difficult to predict how large the inflationary effects will be. A new bout of inflation, as we saw in 2021-22, however, would require a shortage of inputs to be accompanied by a sharp rise in energy prices, whilst demand would have to remain relatively strong for companies to increase their prices. For now we expect the crisis in the Red Sea to slow or delay disinflation rather than fuel a strong increase in inflation. But it will also largely come down to how long it will take to solve the crisis. This is by no means straightforward. And clearly, the repercussions would be much worse if disruptions would spread to the Strait of Hormuz. Importantly, it means the task of the ECB hasn’t become any easier.

In other news, yesterday the EU27 finally agreed on a new four-year EUR 50bn support package for Ukraine. This was despite farmers fed up with EU rules tried their best to block the entry of the council building. The new support package had previously been vetoed by Hungary’s Orbán, in an attempt to unlock EUR 30bn funds held up by Brussels. In December, Orbán managed to obtain EUR 10bn previously frozen EU support money, but he wanted all. It had already become clear that Brussels was done with Orbán. Earlier this week the idea of a plan to destroy the Hungarian economy if it didn’t lift its veto was conveniently leaked to the FT – the leak already led to financial market turmoil and a backlash at home. Now it’s unclear what exactly did the trick, but according to Politico, a small group of leaders managed to convince Orbán in a backdoor meeting to agree. This is much welcome for now. But the saga, again, shows that the EU should reform its governance, such that a single country cannot hold the entire Union hostage.

end

How Will The Fed React To The Supply-Driven Inflation Shock In Goods

MONDAY, FEB 05, 2024 – 09:45 AM

By Benjamin Picton, Rabobank senior market strategist

Double or Nothing?

US non-farm payrolls put the final nail in the coffin of a March rate cut on Friday by printing at almost double the consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Payrolls rose by 353,000 in January versus an expected gain of 185,000, and the December figure (already a beat) was revised higher by 117,000. Even the most bullish forecaster on the survey under-clubbed the number to the tune of 53,000 jobs (more than 1 standard deviation). Average hourly earnings also beat expectations to print at 0.6% m-o-m, which took the year-on-year figure back up to 4.5%.

The payrolls numbers seemingly confirm the signal provided by an unexpectedly strong JOLTS report earlier in the week. That report saw job openings exceed market predictions by some 275,000 positions. The ISM manufacturing survey also printed stronger than expected and is now on the verge of breaking out of contractionary territory for the first time since October of 2022. That’s interesting in the context of the Services reading (due out this week), which has been steadily heading in South since hitting historic highs in the reopening boom following the Delta outbreak of 2021.

Now for the cheerful pessimism: while the reaction to the jobs report was ebullient, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has had a habit throughout 2023 of downwardly revising the stated employment gains in subsequent releases. Indeed, eleven out of twelve months in 2023 have seen initially reported employment growth figures revised lower. This means that the total level of employment growth has been nothing like the number that would have been suggested by simply summing the month-to-month changes together.

Likewise, average weekly hours worked has been trending steadily lower since early 2021 with the decline accelerating sharply at the end of last year while the number of discouraged workers has risen by more than 30% over the last 12 months. The U6 measure of underemployment continues to trend higher as growth in full-time positions is outpaced by gains in part-time work. In fact, the Household Survey reveals that full-time employment actually fell by 63,000 in the month of January, marking the fourth-straight month of declines. So, the headline figures are nothing to sniff at, but your grandfather’s labour market it ain’t.

Perhaps this should be obvious and intuitive, because the conversation we are having is about when rates get cut and by how much. Powell himself is saying that the inflation data doesn’t need to get any better, it just needs to persist for longer. In an interview with 60 Minutes over the weekend Powell re-upped his signal from last Wednesday that a March cut is all but off the table, but in the eyes of the Fed Chairman it is now very clearly a matter of when, not if, rates come down. So, will it be May, or will it be June?

Telegraphed cuts aside, Powell is conscious that upside risks to inflation remain. A resilient labour market is one risk, but it’s not the only one. House Republicans and Democrats last week came together to YOLO $78 billion of tax cuts for businesses and families onto a budget deficit already running at 6.5% of GDP. Then there’s the issue of the Middle East.

With much of the progress on inflation coming courtesy of disinflation in internationally traded goods, there is a material risk that higher freight rates and interruptions to the flow of trade see some of the progress unwound. This is especially the case following retaliatory strikes in Syria and Iraq over the weekend that keep the risk of a broader regional war that could drag in the energy complex smouldering away.

This raises many questions about how policy should respond. How would the Fed view another supply-driven inflation shock in goods? Would they maintain their long-running policy of looking through that shock (“it’s transitory!”), or are Powell’s comments from November to be taken as a policy shift that implies structurally higher rates in a world of persistent shocks? Why doesn’t the Fed “look through” helpful supply shocks like factory gate deflation in China, Japan and Germany?

As always, there are just as many questions as answers, but we rest assured that the rate cuts are coming and it only remains to see when, and how many. Powell says three cuts, markets think (almost) double. Let’s hope that there are no supply-side curveballs that turn those three cuts into nothing.

END

7//OIL ISSUES//NATURAL GAS ISSUES//ELECTRICAL GRID ISSUES// RENEWABLE ENERGY ISSUES//USA AND GLOBE//GLOBAL SHIPPING

US And Iranian Attacks In The Middle East Threaten Major Oil Price Rises

MONDAY, FEB 05, 2024 – 11:15 AM

By Simon Watkins of OilPrice.com

The ability of either the U.S. or China – or even both working together – to contain Iran’s response to the attacks on its military proxies may have disappeared with the latest U.S. attacks on them.
The U.S.’s toleration of increased oil flows from Iran to China also meant that Beijing was relatively content to use its huge influence in the Middle East to further keep political tensions down.
A stricter sanction regime on Iran and less Iranian oil for China may result in higher oil prices this year.

Until a few days ago, two key factors had kept oil prices down since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas War on 7 October 2023. The first was the exceptionally accomplished diplomacy of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his team in preventing the direct involvement of more Middle Eastern states in the conflict. The second was that the White House has been choosing to disregard a dramatic rise in illegal oil exports from Iran to China since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Irrespective of whether oil enters the global market legally or illegally it nonetheless satisfies a demand and helps to dampen down prices. In the case of this second factor, the U.S.’s toleration of increased oil flows from Iran to China also meant that Beijing was relatively content to use its huge influence in the Middle East to further keep political tensions down. However, the latest military strikes by Iranian proxy forces on U.S. targets that caused the death of three American service personnel, and the subsequent retaliation by Washington against several of Tehran’s military proxies, may mean that this second factor will be taken out of the oil price equation. And if that happens, oil prices could rocket.

According to one source who works closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry and another who works in the European’s Union’s energy security complex – both exclusively spoken to by OilPrice.com within the last month – as from 12 December 2023 to 18 January this year Iran was producing between 4.6-4.9 million barrels per day (bpd). This has subsequently dropped to an average of around 4.2-4.5 million bpd. This compares to official figures of 2.99 million bpd. Subtracting the oil used domestically and in the manufacture of other products, Iran has been exporting around 1.80-1.95 million bpd of crude during that period, and for several months before the figure was only slightly less.

Most of this additional oil goes to China through the various methods of sanctions avoidance analysed in full in my new book on the new global oil market order. Suffice it to say here, part of this involves just switching off a ship’s automatic identification systems (AIS) transponder, making the vessel more difficult to track. Another part involves simply lying about a ship’s final destination in the freight documentation and in the vessel’s voyage plan. This standard Iranian sanctions-avoidance measure was openly acknowledged in 2020 by its former Petroleum Minister, Bijan Zanganeh, when he said: “What we export is not under Iran’s name. The documents are changed over and over, as well as [the] specifications.” Additionally, transfers at sea in territorial waters of Malaysia and Indonesia have proven another popular way for Iran to move oil ultimately to China. As Iran’s then-Foreign Minister, Mohammad Zarif, stated in December 2018 at the Doha Forum: “If there is an art that we have perfected in Iran, [that] we can teach to others for a price, it is the art of evading sanctions.”

From China’s side, the system of quietly buying sanctioned Iranian oil has worked flawlessly for years and continued to work in the same way now, as also analysed in depth in my new book on the new global oil market order. As also highlighted by me in an article for OilPrice.com back on 3 August 2020, multiple reports that Iran’s oil exports to China had fallen to zero overlooked the rather important fact that people with something massive to lose if they tell the truth frequently choose to lie instead. The reports also overlooked a key technical fact that any and all crude oil imports to China from Iran can be held in ‘bonded storage’. Put simply: crude oil that goes into ‘bonded storage’ is not put through China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC) at all – and is not even recorded as having been ‘paid for’ – and consequently does not appear on any GAC documentation. This meant – and still means – that China can import as much Iranian oil as it wants without the oil appearing in any import figures and without, as far as the letter of the law is concerned, China breaking any U.S. sanctions.

This long-time collusive misrepresentation of the size of Iranian oil flows to China has particularly suited both the U.S. and China – and the world, in fact – since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Vicious spikes in oil and gas prices in the immediate aftermath of the February 2022 invasion caused energy-price-fuelled inflation to spiral out of control. For the U.S.’s key allies that are net energy consumers in the West and East this threatened power shortages and major economic recessions if not dealt with quickly. It was at this point that the White House quietly resumed talks in earnest with Iran on a new iteration of the ‘nuclear deal’, as also analysed in depth in my new book on the new global oil market order. Part of those talks was a further easing up in U.S. focus on the issue of sanctioned Iranian oil exports. For China, this understanding with the U.S. on Iranian oil flows is extremely important for the prospects of its ongoing economic recovery from three years of Covid.

For one thing, China can still buy Iranian oil for at least a 30 percent discount to the Brent oil price benchmark through the all-encompassing ‘Iran-China 25-Year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement’, as first revealed anywhere in the world in my 3 September 2019 article on the subject and also analysed in full in my new book on the new global oil market order. Additionally, the economies of the West remain its key export bloc, with the U.S. still accounting for over 16 percent of China’s export revenues on its own. According to the senior E.U. energy security source spoken to exclusively by OilPrice.com recently, economic damage to China would dangerously increase if the Brent oil price remained over US$90-95 pb for more than one quarter of a year. Indeed, Beijing’s lack of appetite for an outright superpower showdown in the Middle East right now was signalled clearly by the recent visit to the U.S. of its President, Xi Jinping – his first in six years.

A similar range for the oil price is also what is wanted by the U.S. and has informally been in place since the presidency of Donald Trump, as also detailed in my new book. The floor of the range is US$40-45 pb of Brent, as it is seen as the price at which U.S. shale oil producers can survive and make decent profits. The ceiling of the range is regarded as US$75-80 pb of Brent for two reasons – one political and one economic, although they are linked. The political reason is that since the end of World War I in 2018, the sitting U.S. president has won re-election 11 times out of 11 if the economy was not in recession within two years of an upcoming election. However, if it was in recession in this timeframe, then only 1 sitting president has won out of 7 times (although even the 1 is debatable). The economic reason is based on longstanding estimates that every US$10 pb change in the price of crude oil results in a 25-30 cent change in the price of a gallon of gasoline, and every 1 cent that the average price per gallon of gasoline rises removes more than US$1 billion per year in consumer spending. Historically, around 70 percent of the price of gasoline is derived from the global oil price.

However, the ability of either the U.S. or China – or even both working together – to contain Iran’s response to the attacks on its military proxies may have disappeared with the latest U.S. attacks on them. Similarly, the willingness of the U.S. to tolerate the ongoing sale of major flows of sanctioned oil from Iran may be over. If the dampening effect of these Iranian oil flows is removed from the oil market, then this would likely lead to an oil price rise to around US$102 per barrel, according to World Bank estimates of a ‘small disruption’ (0.5 million bpd – 2 million bpd loss of supply) in the oil market. If a major increase in risk in the Middle East as U.S. and Iran-backed attacks continue leads to a ‘large disruption’ (6 million bpd -8 million bpd) in oil supply then the World Bank forecasts a 56-75 percent increase in oil prices to between US$140 and US$157 a barrel.

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

CANADA//

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0755 DOWN .0022

USA/ YEN 148.44 UP .250 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2576 DOWN .0041

USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3490 UP .0043 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 43 BASIS PTS)

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 27.97 PTS OR 1.02%

Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 23.55 PTS OR 0.15%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.96% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY ALL GREEN (EXCEPT SPAIN)

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 23.55 PTS OR 0.15%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27.97 PTS OR 1.02%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.96%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 196.14 OR 0.54%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2025.25

silver:$22.44

USA dollar index early FMONDAY morning: 104.14 UP 36 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.

MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.021% UP 5 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.720% UP 7 AND 0//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.226 UP 6 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.888 UP 6 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.316 UP 8 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0732 DOWN 0.0046 or 46 basis points

USA/Japan: 148.282 UP 0.684 OR YEN DOWN 68 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2524 DOWN .0090 OR 90 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0093 OR 93 BASIS pts to 1.3539

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED (DOWN) …7.1985

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2234)

TURKISH LIRA: 30.55 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.728…

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 12 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.1640% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield 4.348 UP 11 in basis points /12.00 PM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.466 UP 12 BASIS PTS.

Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: MONDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 2.68 PTS OR 0.04%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 14.15 PTS OR 0.08%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 2.36 PTS OR 0.03%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 125.20 PTS OR 1.20%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 234.84 PTS OR 0.76%

WTI Oil price 72.15 12: EST

Brent Oil: 77,33 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 90.57; ROUBLE UP 0 AND 58//100

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.310 UP 8 BASIS PTS

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.045 UP 17 BASIS POINTS

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA: 1.0739 DOWN .0039 OR 39 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2532 DOWN .0084 or 84 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.0310 UP 8 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.655%

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148.73 UP 0.555//YEN DOWN 56 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3537 UP .0094 CDN dollar DOWN 94 basis pts)

West Texas intermediate oil: 72.78

Brent OIL: 78.04

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 14 BASIS pts to 4.171%

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 12 BASIS PTS to 4.347%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 11 PTS AT 4.476%

USA dollar index: 104.36 UP 57 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.56 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 90.58 UP 0 AND 48/100 roubles

GOLD 2025.45 3:30 PM

SILVER: 22.35 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 274.83 PTS OR 0.71%

NASDAQ DOWN 29.70 PTS OR 0.17%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 13,66 DOWN .19 PTS OR 1.37%

GLD: $187,57 down 1.64 OR 0.55%

SLV/ $20.47 .DOWN .28 OR 1.35%

end

USA AFFAIRS

TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Bonds, Bullion, Banks, & Bitcoin Battered As “Good News Is Bad News” Again After Powell

MONDAY, FEB 05, 2024 – 04:00 PM

Hotter than expected Services surveys – with a big jump in prices – was just the good news the market did not want to hear. Though no ZeroHedge reader should be surprised by this resurgence in economic ‘animal spirits’ – it is merely the lagged response of an economy that was fed a massive loosening of financial conditions late last year…

Source: Bloomberg

As we saw a lot of last year: bad news is good and good news is bad, at least when it comes to trading a soft landing and the odds of rate-cuts in the short-term tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

Unsurprisingly, this morning’s data, Chair Powell’s comments, along with the strong payrolls report, generally strong macro data points, and largely constructive earnings reports we have seen recently, are all combining in a step higher in 10-year UST yield, breaking out decidedly above 4.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

The entire curve was higher by 11-15bps today…

Source: Bloomberg

And higher rates hammered stocks…until they didn’t. Stocks initially puked, only to revert dramatically higher (with Nasdaq getting back into green). Small Caps were clubbed like a baby seal today, as was The Dow, while Nasdaq couldn’t quite hold green into the close…

…thanks to a notable short-squeeze off the initial dump lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, 0-DTE traders tried twice to fade the gains in stocks…

Source: SpotGamma

Regional bank stocks closed red again with NYCB hammered…

NVDA extended its insanely vertical recent rise after Goldman upgraded the AI giant. This pushed the RSI to massively overbought at 85…

Source: Bloomberg

Recently, bonds and stocks have been moving very differently. Today saw bond yields and stocks close at their highs of the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Here’s why…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-

With bond-stock correlation crashing to its lowest level in months…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar extended gains today, rallying up to its 100DMA to its highest in 3 months (after bouncing off its 50DMA and breaking thru its 200DMA)…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold slipped to one week lows, but spot found support at $2020…

Source: Bloomberg

After falling back into January’s range, oil managed small gains today with WTI testing above $73 briefly…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin surged overnight, back above $43,500 before plunging back to earth after headlines about bankrupt crypto-lender Genesis Trading filed a motion to liquidate over $1.6 billion in crypto…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin today, trading up to $2300…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, is the market pricing in a Trump victory?

Source: Bloomberg

Based on Goldman’s Republican winners vs losers basket performance, it appears stocks are moving in sync with Trump’s odds.

MORNING TRADING//

end

II USA DATA

US Banks See Massive Deposit Flight (Biggest Since SVB) As Fed Ends BTFP ‘Arb’

FRIDAY, FEB 02, 2024 – 04:40 PM

After two weeks of outflows, money market funds saw $42BN of inflows last week, sending the total assets above $6TN for the first time ever..

Source: Bloomberg

Not exactly a bullish sign for stocks as investors are choosing super safe money markets, where six-month bills yield about 5.17%, as the Fed sticks to its higher-for-longer policy.

In a breakdown for the week to Jan. 31, government funds – which invest primarily in securities like Treasury bills, repurchase agreements and agency debt – saw assets rise to $4.89 trillion, a $31.6 billion increase.

Prime funds, which tend to invest in higher-risk assets such as commercial paper, meanwhile, saw assets rise to $994 billion, a $7.32 billion increase.

Institutional funds saw a large $33BN inflow and retail funds saw yet another inflow…

Source: Bloomberg

After a small expansion in the prior week, The Fed’s balance sheet contracted by $47.2BN last week…

Source: Bloomberg

And for the first time since May of last year, usage of The Fed’s BTFP facility dropped (by $2.5BN to still $165BN), after The Fed crushed the arb and vowed to end it on time in March…

Source: Bloomberg

The Reverse Repo facility saw more liquidity drawn down, testing down to $500BN left…

Source: Bloomberg

US equity market cap remains decoupled from the shrinking reserves at The Fed once again…

Source: Bloomberg

The timing of the end of the arb, the imminent end of BTFP, and the rapid approach of zero liquidity left in the RRP all line up for a March D-Day for the banks.

Talking of which, on a non-seaonally-adjusted basis, total deposits plunged by a stunning $168BN last week – the biggest weekly drop since the SVB crisis…

Source: Bloomberg

Seasonally-adjusted total deposits also decline, by $28BN…

Source: Bloomberg

And, excluding foreign deposits, The Fed managed to turn a giant domestic deposit flight of $160BN NSA (Large banks -$141BN, Small banks -$19BN) into a tiny domestic deposit decline of $458MN only (Large banks -$16BN, Small banks +$15.5BN)…

Source: Bloomberg

On the other side of the ledger, loan volumes rose byjust over $10BN with Small banks adding $10.5BN while large banks saw loan volumes drop $238MN…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, as is now finally becoming evident in the share prices, the regional bank crisis is back (it never left) as evidenced by the red line below (without The Fed’s BTFP facility there is a major hole) and big banks have money to burn (green line) with help from the FDIC…

Source: Bloomberg

So, when will Powell be forced to admit a March rate-cut is back on the table? Or QE?

END

ISM Services Accelerates, But Prices Surge Most In 11 Years

MONDAY, FEB 05, 2024 – 10:09 AM

Following Manufacturing surveys’ surge in January (both S&P Global and PMI), Services surveys were both expected to rise also in January, tracking the rise in ‘hard’ data recently.

S&P Global’s ISM Services survey rose from 51.4 in December to 52.5 (final) in January (but declined from the 52.9 flash print for January). That is still the highest Services print since June 2023.
ISM’s Services survey jumped from 50.5 to 53.4, well above the 52.0 expected. This is the highest Services PMI since October.

Source: Bloomberg

Employment rebounded strongly. New Oreders picked up, but prices exploded higher…

Source: Bloomberg

That’s the biggest MoM jump in ISM Services Prices since 2012!

Here’s why:

“Transportation impacts of the Suez Canal, due to unrest in the Red Sea and the issues at the Panama Canal are impacting both costs and schedules for the transport of global goods.” [Construction]

So that’s bad – but if you prefer to ignore it, here’s what S&P Global thinks about prices!:

“Price pressures have meanwhile shifted lower. Overall service sector input cost growth is now running at the second-lowest for over three years, helping pull selling price growth across goods and services down to a level consistent with inflation dropping materially below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in the near future.”

So either prices are at their second lower in three years or at their highest in a year!

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:

“The US service sector started the year in a sweet spot, with output and demand growth accelerating while price pressures cooled markedly.

The key driver of faster growth was the financial services sector, where looser financial conditions tied to expectations of lower interest rates spurred greater activity in January.

Households are also benefitting from loosened financial conditions, driving renewed growth in consumer-facing services.

The US Composite index rose from 50.9 to 52.0 (less than the 52.3 flash print though) with Services expansion trumping Manufacturing weakness:

“The buoyancy of the service sector has outweighed a further lackluster performance in manufacturing, and is driving overall output higher at a rate broadly consistent with GDP rising at a 2% pace.

With bad weather having curbed some economic activity in January, February should see some further improvement in overall performance.

Finally, Williamson notes that “business optimism about growth prospects in the service sector has likewise jumped higher, encouraging further payroll growth, albeit the latter limited by labor shortages. “

But here’s a PMI respondent’s view:

“Most companies I work with are gearing up for a tough 2024. Some may be overreacting, but there is a general sense that election years in the U.S. result in unrest, which is causing everyone to be conservative with spend.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]

Stronger growth and no price pressure – not exactly a recipe for cutting rates?

TUCKER CARLSON..

III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES

Powell Tells 60 Minutes Fed “Not Likely” To Cut In March, Calls Americans Lazy

SUNDAY, FEB 04, 2024 – 08:05 PM

In his highly anticipated 60-Minutes interview, Jerome Powell did not deliver any new shocks, and unlike the Fed’s dovish December pivot, there were no major surprises: instead, the Fed Chair echoed what he said last week, predicting that the Fed policymakers will likely wait after March to cut interest rates as he sought to explain the central bank’s rationale for eventual reductions to a broad public audience (amid mounting pressure by Democrats to cut aggressively ahead of December even as the Biden Dept of Labor fabricated jobs data to make it seem like the US is enjoying a golden ago for workers).

In an interview conducted on Thursday with CBS’s 60 Minutes and airing Sunday evening, Powell reiterated that Fed officials want to see more economic data to assure that inflation is on a sustainable path to their 2% goal.

“The danger of moving too soon is that the job’s not quite done, and that the really good readings we’ve had for the last six months somehow turn out not to be a true indicator of where inflation’s heading,” Powell said in the interview adding that while “we don’t think that’s the case… the prudent thing to do is to, is to just give it some time and see that the data continue to confirm that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustainable way.”

Powell then said it isn’t likely that the Fed “will reach that level of confidence” about inflation’s path by its March 19-20 gathering, echoing remarks he made at a press conference Wednesday, and certainly not after the latest laughably ridiculous and political manipulated jobs number. He clarified that while most FOMC members are now dovish and expect rate cuts, that’s certainly not the case for all, to wit: “all but a couple of our participants do believe it will be appropriate to, for us to begin to dial back the restrictive stance by cutting rates this year,” Powell said. “And so, it is certainly the base case that, that we will do that. We’re just trying to pick the right time, given the overall context.” Here is the full exchange:

PELLEY: The next meeting around this table that will decide the direction of interest rates is in this coming March. Knowing what you know now, is a rate cut more likely or less likely at that time?

POWELL: So, the broader situation is that the economy is strong, the labor market is strong, and inflation is coming down. And my colleagues and I are trying to pick the right point at which to begin to dial back our restrictive policy stance. That time is coming. We’ve said that we want to be more confident that inflation is moving down to 2%. And I would say, and I did say yesterday, that I think it’s not likely that this committee will reach that level of confidence in time for the March meeting, which is in seven weeks.

So, I would say that’s not the most likely or base case. However, all but a couple of our participants do believe it will be appropriate to, for us to begin to dial back the restrictive stance by cutting rates this year. And so, it is certainly the base case that, that we will do that. We’re just trying to pick the right time, given the overall context.

While inflation has subsided substantially in recent months, Powell has repeatedly emphasized the central bank’s need to see more data before lowering borrowing costs. He indicated last week a rate cut is unlikely in the first quarter.

The central banker also said he didn’t expect policymakers to “dramatically” change their forecasts for rates next year, which in December showed they expect their benchmark lending rate to reach 4.6% by the end of 2024, suggesting three rate cuts remains the baseline.

PELLEY: This past December in your quarterly report, the Fed predicted rate cuts this year down to about 4.6%. Still likely?

POWELL: Those forecasts were made in December. And those are individual forecasts made by participants. It’s not a committee plan. We don’t update those at every meeting. We’ll update them at the March meeting. I will say, though, nothing has happened in the meantime that would lead me to think that people would dramatically change their forecasts.

PELLEY: So something around a 4.6% interest rate is likely?

POWELL: I would say it this way. It’s really going to depend on the data. The data will drive these decisions. And we can’t do any better than to look at the data and ask ourselves, “How is this affecting the outlook and the balance of risks?” That’s what we’ll be doing. So, what we actually do will depend on how the economy evolves.

Curiously, while there was a Bloomberg headline that…

CBS REPORTER SAYS POWELL SUGGESTED THE FIRST CUT AROUND MIDYEAR

The actual transcript did not show Powell commenting on a midyear cut.

*CBS TRANSCRIPT DOESN’T SHOW POWELL COMMENT ON MIDYEAR CUT

While Powell is unlikely to confirm something he may have said in conversation off camera, the notion of delayed rate cuts certainly affirms the narrative after Friday’s “very strong” (ridiculously so) US jobs report. Still, Powell again underlined the lack of unanimous consensus:

PELLEY: How would you characterize the consensus around this table for rate cuts? Is everyone onboard? Most people?

POWELL: Almost all. Almost all of the 19 participants who sit around this table believe that it will be appropriate in their most likely case for us to cut the federal funds rate this year. So, the consensus, though, the thing that really comes out in people’s thinking as we discuss this around the table, is that what we actually do is really going to depend on the evolution of the economy. So, if the economy were to weaken, then we could reduce rates earlier and perhaps faster. If the economy were to prove — if inflation were to prove more persistent, that could call for us to reduce rates later and perhaps slower. So, it really is going to be dependent on the incoming data as that affects the outlook.

The timing of this year’s policy pivot poses unique challenges for the Fed as rapid price increases have angered Americans, weighed on President Joe Biden’s approval ratings and thrust Powell and the Fed into election-year politics. Cutting rates this year will subject the Fed to Republican accusations that the central bank is trying give Democrats a boost by aiding the economy ahead of the election. And, sure enough, Democrats such as Senators Sherrod Brown and Elizabeth Warrren sent letters last week urging Powell to lower interest rates.

And former President Donald Trump told Fox Business Network on Friday that he wouldn’t reappoint Powell, even though he chose him to lead the central bank in 2017.

And so, touching on a topic we discussed extensively after the Fed’s shocking dovish pivot in December, namely how much water the Fed is now carrying for the Biden admin, Powell naturally denied the Nov election had anything to do with the Fed’s dramatic U-turn on rate cuts.

PELLEY: Your decisions inevitably are going to have a bearing on this year’s election. And I wonder, to what degree does politics determine your timing?

POWELL: We do not consider politics in our decisions. We never do. And we never will. And I think the record — fortunately, the historical record really backs that up. People have gone back and looked. This is my fourth presidential election in the Fed, and it just doesn’t come into our thinking, and I’ll tell you why.

Two reasons. One, we are a non-political organization that serves all Americans. It would be wrong for us to start taking politics into account. Secondly, though, it’s not easy to get the economics of this right in the first place. These are complicated, you know, risk-balancing decisions. If we tried to incorporate a whole ‘nother set of factors in politics into those decisions, it could only lead to worse economic outcomes. So, we simply don’t do that, and we’re not going to do it. We haven’t done it in the past, and we’re not going to do it now.

And then there was this epic lie:

PELLEY: There are people watching this interview who are skeptical about that.

POWELL: You know, I would just say this. Integrity is priceless. And at the end, that’s all you have. And we in, we plan on keeping ours.

You know what else is priceless, Jerome? Former Fed President Bill Dudley writing an op-ed in August 2019 urging the Fed to crush the economy and destroy Trump’s re-election chances. You’ll never guess what happened to the economy just a few months later… But yeah, you go ahead and enjoy your “priceless integrity.”

As for the market reaction, while Powell did not say anything he didn’t already bring up in last week’s FOMC meeting, the fact that the Fed chair pushed back on March sent Treasury futures lower as investors interpret the Fed chair’s words as ruling out a Fed interest rate cut before June. And after jumping on Friday after the “blowout” jobs report, the USDJPY – which has been tied to the 10Y yield’s hip – also pushed higher leading a broad dollar bid in early Asian trading Monday.

A tangent here, if you weren’t worried about commercial real estate below, now is a good time to start because, according to Powell, CRE is contained:

PELLEY: The value of commercial office buildings all across the country is dropping as people work from home. Those buildings support the balance sheets of banks all across the country. What is the likelihood of another real estate-led banking crisis?

POWELL: I don’t think that’s likely. So, what’s happening is, as you point out, we have work-from-home, and you have weakness in office real estate, and also retail, downtown retail. You have some of that. And there will be losses in that.

We looked at the larger banks’ balance sheets, and it appears to be a manageable problem. There’s some smaller and regional banks that have concentrated exposures in these areas that are challenged. And, you know, we’re working with them. This is something we’ve been aware of for, you know, a long time, and we’re working with them to make sure that they have the resources and a plan to work their way through the expected losses. There will be expected losses.

It feels like a problem we’ll be working on for years. It’s a sizable problem. I don’t think — it doesn’t appear to have the makings of the kind of crisis things that we’ve seen sometimes in the past, for example, with the global financial crisis.

PELLEY: You believe it’s a manageable problem?

POWELL: I think it appears to be

PELLEY: We’re not gonna see bank failures across the country as we did in 2008?

POWELL: I don’t think there’s much risk of a repeat of 2008. I also think, you know, we need to be careful about making proclamations about the — particularly about the future. Things have surprised us a lot. But no, on this, on this, I do think it’s a manageable problem. I think we’re doing a lot to manage it.

There will be certainly — there will be some banks that have to be closed or merged out of, out of existence because of this. That’ll be smaller banks, I suspect, for the most part. You know, these are losses. It’s a secular change in the use of downtown real estate. And the result will be losses for the owners and for the lenders, but it should be manageable.

Powell may believe it will be a “manageable problem” but when pressed about last year’s bank crisis, the Fed chief admitted the Fed got everything dead wrong (and even, so once again blamed X/twitter):

PELLEY: A follow-up, Mr. Chairman, to our banking line of question. You seem confident in the banks, and yet the Silicon Valley Bank, second largest failure in U.S. history. Did the Fed miss that?

POWELL: So, yes, we did. And I would say it this way. You know, that happened, and we forthrightly saw that we needed to do better. So, we’ve spent a lot of time working on ways to make supervision more effective and also to adapt regulation to a more, to a modern context in which a bank run can happen so much faster than it could have even 20 years ago. So, we have — we accepted that right away. And, yes.

PELLEY: A bank run happening faster than it could have 20 years ago because of the communications that are available today?

POWELL: Yes.

Finally, we pointed out on Friday that all the job gains since 2018 have gone to immigrants (non-native born workers)…

… and here is Powell defending them:

PELLEY: Why was immigration important?

POWELL: Because, you know, immigrants come in, and they tend to work at a rate that is at or above that for non-immigrants. Immigrants who come to the country tend to be in the workforce at a slightly higher level than native Americans do. But that’s largely because of the age difference. They tend to skew younger.

PELLEY: Why is immigration so important to the economy?

POWELL: Well, first of all, immigration policy is not the Fed’s job. The immigration policy of the United States is really important and really much under discussion right now, and that’s none of our business. We don’t set immigration policy. We don’t comment on it.

I will say, over time, though, the U.S. economy has benefited from immigration. And, frankly, just in the last, year a big part of the story of the labor market coming back into better balance is immigration returning to levels that were more typical of the pre-pandemic era.

PELLEY: The country needed the workers.

POWELL: It did. And so, that’s what’s been happening.

Translation: Immigrants (we hope he means legal immigrants here, not the flood of illegal immigrants) work hard, and Americans are lazy.

Here is the full transcript from Powell’s 60 Minutes interview.

end

This will be highly inflationary

(zerohedge)

Cost Of Running A McDonalds Jumps $250,000 In CA Due To Minimum Wage Hikes

MONDAY, FEB 05, 2024 – 02:25 PM

By Mish Shedlock of MishTalk

Prices at fast food restaurants in California are set to jump in April as huge minimum wage hikes kick in. Escalating restaurant prices won’t be limited to California.

Expect to Pay More

California already has some of the highest fast food prices in the nation. Expect to pay still more, and not just in California.

The Wall Street Journal notes Burritos and Big Macs to Cost More in California as Pay Rises

Minimum wage for California fast-food workers is set to rise to $20 an hour in April, a 25% increase from the state’s broader $16 minimum wage. Restaurants including McDonald’s, Chipotle, Jack in the Box and others say they will raise menu prices in California in response, with some McDonald’s franchisees estimating hundreds of thousands of dollars per restaurant in added labor costs.

“Everyone is going to have to pay more,” said Jack Hartung, chief financial officer of California-based Chipotle Mexican Grill. Chipotle has raised its menu prices four times in the past two years and expects to increase them a further 5% to 9% in its California restaurants to cover the higher pay required for workers.

The National Owners Association, a group of McDonald’s franchisees, estimated it will cost Golden Arches operators an additional $250,000 annually per restaurant, an amount that can’t readily be absorbed, according to an email from the group last September.

Burger King aims to install more digital-ordering kiosks in its U.S. restaurants, with California now a focus, said Josh Kobza, chief executive of parent company Restaurant Brands International, in an interview.

Aaron Noveshen, founder of San Francisco-based chicken chain Starbird, said he wants to recruit franchisees to open new locations outside of California, given escalating wage, building and other costs. “I do love it here, but there are a lot of forces that make it difficult to do business in California,” Noveshen said.

Impact on Joe’s Grill and Susie’s Diner

Don’t think for one second that these wage hike only hit wealthy franchise owners. For starters, many franchise owners are deep in debt to buy that franchise.

In addition, how are Joe and Susie going to get help at $16 when McDonalds is paying $20?

The answer is they won’t. Effectively, $20 is the new minimum wage in California, and not just restaurants.

The franchise owner will weigh the cost of a kiosk vs shelling out $250,000 in wages. Joe’s Grill and Susie’s Diner don’t have that option.

Where Workers will Get a Raise on January 1

I discussed wages and other factors yesterday in 2024 Inflation Outlook: How Much Inflation Is Baked in the Cake?

The post today show the actual impact to franchise owners in California but it’s not just California businesses that are impacted.

Is Inflation Down? That’s What President Biden Says

Let’s tune into a White House Statement on inflation to discuss what’s real and what is imaginary.

For discussion, please see Is Inflation Down? That’s What President Biden Says

Transitory Inflation?

Economists now widely believe in the softest of soft landings. But here’s the key question: Is inflation transitory or is the recent decline of inflation transitory?

I suggest it’s the decline in inflation that is transitory until the Fed delivers a recession.

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM…

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON

VDH: Is Biden Malicious, Incompetent, Or Conniving?

MONDAY, FEB 05, 2024 – 04:20 PM

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

What Excites Biden?

Things are becoming so strange, so surreal, so nihilistic in contemporary America that the chaos can only be deliberate. Chance, incompetence, and accident could not alone explain the series of disasters we now daily witness that are nearly destroying the country.

When the ailing and non-compos-mentis president now speaks, he rarely becomes excited about Iranian or terrorist provocations. Biden seems restrained even at Russia’s outlawry in Ukraine. The atrocities of Hamas now earn only measured objections from Biden. He does not seem too angered by the collapse of the border. Nor do the deaths of 100,000 Americans to imported fentanyl earn a loud trademark Biden scream.

No, what earns his unchecked ire, often expressed in shouts and hysterical tones, are Donald Trump and his supporters. Most recently, out of nowhere, Biden resurrected the old and proven falsehood that Trump had libeled the Normandy dead as losers and suckers. He then compounded that libel by claiming Trump’s supposed dismissal of the heroic dead was a grievous family insult to his own late son, who did not die either in combat or while in uniform but in 2015, tragically, from brain cancer.

During these anti-Trump fits, Biden wakes up and his face tightens up. He begins screaming, in uncharacteristic, animated fashion, anytime he can smear half the nation’s voters as “semi-fascists” and “ultra-MAGA” extremists. In private, he swears that Trump is a “f—ing asshole” and “sick f—k.” If only Biden substituted “cartel” or “Iran” or “Hamas” for “Trump” or “MAGA.” we might see an animate president.

A Borderless Nation

Meanwhile, a mob of illegal aliens recently tried to kick and stomp sprawled New York peace officers into senselessness—felonies that would earn any such violent citizen a decade or more on Rikers Island.

Yet somehow, only a few were arrested. Stranger still, all of them were immediately let go without bail—as if freeing wolves to prey further upon sheep.

Upon release, a few smirked and flipped their middle fingers to bystanders. Apparently, they wished to show Americans that they are violent, crude, unrepentant, and exempt. And thus they tell us that their newfound hosts are fools for letting the likes of themselves in.

And why not, given the attackers bussed with impunity to California—the land of free everything if only one qualifies as illegally residing in the U.S.

These grotesque bullies are part of the eight-million illegal aliens who pranced across the southern border without background checks—all taking Biden up on his 2019 encouragement to “surge” the border with impunity.

Many brandish their cartel affiliations. Some pay for their transit by smuggling cartel fentanyl, which contributes to 100,000 American overdose deaths per year. Others sport lengthy criminal records. All seemed to have been welcomed out of their countries by conniving Latin American governments and mysteriously invited into our country by our derelict president.

The Death of the Law

There is a continuing pattern here. Sometime around late 2020, Americans woke up in a country they no longer recognized. That summer, tens of thousands of rioters had looted, burned, killed, maimed, and assaulted for four months with veritable impunity. Leftwing mayors and governors dubbed the violence as “largely peaceful” demonstrations or a “summer of love.”

The 2020 legacy of defunding the police and exempting criminals on the basis of their race or ideology is that each week now videos circulate of massive looting, smash-and-grab epidemics, and deadly car-jackings in our major cities. No one cares much about the small business owners who are ruined.

Who laments for the poor who lose their last shopping outlet? Does the Biden administration worry over the terrified employees who are ordered to stand back or the occasional security officer totem instructed to stand down?

Instead, we are to empathize with the thief, the assaulter, the rapist, and the carjacker—at least in the sense that he does not deserve punishment for the mayhem he caused, given we, not he, are supposedly the true guilty parties. A lot of innocent and defenseless people have been assaulted and killed since 2020 as the wage of that toxic theory.

So the subtext of all these violent acts is exemption based on perceived correct race, ideology, or membership in the supposed victim/oppressed binary. The perpetrators are either not arrested, let out the same day as arrested, never charged, or never convicted. And the result is a growing distrust of the law and a cynicism that there is little law anymore, just statutes used against political undesirables.

If, for just one month, the Biden justice department used the same resources and budget it has spent the last three years rounding up bystanders at the January 6 riot and instead prosecuted, convicted, and jailed these big-city violent assailants, then the crime epidemic could be solved.

The Implosion of the University

As a general rule, in 2024, the more “prestigious” our universities, and the more they prided themselves as elite or Ivy-League, the more likely there were racially segregated dorms and graduations, a virtual anti-Semitic hounding of Jewish students, grade inflation, watered-down courses, and pro-Hamas terrorist demonstrations.

For nearly a hundred years, universities told us that the SAT or ACT admittance exam was critical in determining their admissions. It was sold as a way to confirm the potential and preparation necessary to perform at a level demanded by these elite schools. The tests were praised as a meritocratic tool to determine talent by honing grade point averages and allowing opportunity to those without money and contacts. Then suddenly, in 2021, these tests were mostly junked.

That dismissal of standardized tests was a de facto admission that:

1) Universities had been admittedly wrong for a century that standardized admissions tests had any value in determining the degree of student preparation needed to complete a rigorous Ivy League class load.

or 2) in the interest of diversity, equity, and inclusion, the university would now be free to admit students who could not meet their prior unrealistic or unnecessary standards and instead would accommodate new students by suddenly inflating grades, introducing easier classes, or diminishing required course work.

Of course, the university admits to neither of these realities. It compounds the deception and fraud by claiming new generations of students are more competitive and gifted than ever and will leave with degrees that guarantee employers rigorously trained graduates. Time will soon tell.

The End of Deterrence

The same nihilism characterizes our foreign policy.

Our worst enemies could not have planned a more disastrous and humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan than the Biden administration’s August 2021 scamper. We simply, without an afterthought, abandoned billions of dollars of sophisticated weapons to Taliban terrorists.

We left behind a $1 billion new embassy and a remodeled Air Force base. We bragged about taking out terrorists with a “righteous strike” that wiped out an entire friendly Afghan family, while 13 American service personnel were blown up trying to secure a non-securable escape route.

Then followed the mysterious laxity as a Chinese spy balloon lazily traversed the U.S. with impunity. Next was the radical drop-off in military recruitment. If one wished to ensure that the one group that serves—and dies—in combat units at twice its demographics would exit the military en masse, prompting an enlistment crisis, the Pentagon could not have done a better job.

The top brass all but accused its white male recruits of being prone to toxic white supremacy, only to form a task force to root it out—and then discover such rage and hatred never existed in the first place.

It nonetheless drummed out 8,400 veterans for not receiving the mRNA vaccinations, many of whom had naturally acquired immunity and real doubts about the efficacy or safety of the inoculations. And, finally, the Pentagon made it known that prior standards of recruitment, promotion, and evaluation had apparently weakened the military. Therefore, new race- and gender-based criteria would ensure fewer and now unneeded white males in positions of rank and influence.

Abroad, China serially threatens to annex Taiwan. A hungry and perennially restless Vladimir Putin once upon a time thought he was restrained from invading his neighbors by fear of more costs incurred than the likelihood of benefits to be gained. But like an earlier reaction to a weakened U.S. in 2008 and 2014, Putin assumed that the 2022 Biden administration would likely do little if he annexed greater swaths of Ukraine. And so he invaded.

National security advisor Jack Sullivan, on the eve of the October 7 Hamas massacres of Jewish citizens, claimed the Middle East was at last calm. Now it is on the verge of a theater-wide war, once Iran sensed that the Biden team would appease and beg it to behave.

So the Biden administration was eager to end oil sanctions, plead with Iran to reenter the Iran Deal, remove the Houthis from terrorist designations, route billions of dollars to Tehran for hostages, junk the Abrams accords, and restore millions of dollars in please-be-nice bribe money to the Palestinians.

Biden’s abject misreading of human nature has ensured that a thuggish theocracy that slaughters abroad and tortures at home would interpret that reproachment as either naiveté or stupidity. And thus it would respond with contempt and escalating aggression. And so it has.

Somehow, over just three years, the Biden administration did to the Middle East what it did to the southern border: blew it up in the same exact manner of mindlessly undoing any policy that had previously worked with Trump’s finger prints on them.

What Is Going On?

What is the common denominator, what is the rationale behind the anarchy, and what is the reason why a president would so willingly rend the fabric of America?

Why would the government privilege the illegal alien over the law-abiding citizen? The violent pro-Hamas, anti-Semitic foreign-born protestor over the peaceful pro-Israel, U.S. citizen? The smash-and-grabber over the dutiful security guard?

We are nearing a French Revolution, reign-of-terror moment. The law seems to be what a cabal of hardcore leftists who control the Oval Office say it is.

Joe Biden’s administration offers no better confirmation of warnings from Thucydides to Thomas Hobbes that the veneer of civilization is precious, hard-won, quite thin, and beneath it churns innate human savagery and chaos roaring to be released.

So why did Biden unleash the hounds of anti-civilization? Did he despise the supposedly boring middle-class citizen who follows the law, pays all his taxes, and never gets arrested? Does he hate the idea of meritocracy? In Biden’s puppeteers’ dangerous calculus, is all this savagery and chaos a deliberate mechanism to ensure parity? Equity? Inclusion?

So is the deliberate nihilism—economic, social, cultural, social, and political—a way of leveling the field? Making life difficult for the more successful? Making those who cherish the traditions and protocols of America pay?

Is that the plan to take the country to near collapse, and then only at the abyss itself to force revolutionary change—or else?

How else can anyone explain the descent of our city downtowns into dank medieval cesspits, our notion of male and female transformed into the sexual circus right out of Petronius’s Satyricon, our race relations into a mixture of Rwanda and Yugoslavia, and our universities into Soviet-like “People’s Universities of Correct Thought?”

None of this was by accident. It is the dividend of a philosophy that says, “We have to blow up your America before we can reboot it for us.”

END

SWAMP STORIES

Scandalous Senate ‘Deal’ Allows 1.5 Million Illegals Per Year, Slides Up To $2.3B To NGOs Trafficking Them, And Gives $60B To Ukraine

SUNDAY, FEB 04, 2024 – 08:25 PM

While the House has gone full ‘Israel or Bust’, the Senate has come up with a $118 billion bipartisan agreement which would allow 1.5 million illegals to enter the US every year, allocates $2.3 billion towards NGOs and other organizations which traffic them, gives $14.1 billion in security assistance to Israel, and a whopping $60 billion in support to Ukraine.

The bill also locks in green card giveaways until 2030.

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The agreement was reached by Sens. James Lankford (R-OK), whose own state legislature censured him last week for striking such a crappy border deal, along with Chris Murphy (D-CT) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ).

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Let’s pause to revisit the fact that President Biden could close the border with the stroke of a pen, right now, but refuses to do so until Ukraine and Israel money materializes. He really likes quid-pro-quo arrangements, you see.

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As noted above, the bill also carves out $2.33 billion for “Refugee and Entrant Assistance,” which provides that “Amounts made available under this heading in this Act may be used for grants or contracts with qualified organizations, including nonprofit entities, to provide culturally and linguistically appropriate services.”

Breaking it down further, the $118.28 billion national security supplemental package includes:

$60.06 billion to support Ukraine as it fights back against Putin’s bloody invasion and protects its people and sovereignty.
$14.1 billion in security assistance for Israel.
$2.44 billion to support operations in the U.S. Central Command and address combat expenditures related to conflict in the Red Sea.
$10 billion in humanitarian assistance to provide food, water, shelter, medical care, and other essential services to civilians in Gaza and the West Bank, Ukraine, and other populations caught in conflict zones across the globe.
$4.83 billion to support key regional partners in the Indo-Pacific and deter aggression by the Chinese government.
$2.33 billion to continue support for Ukrainians displaced by Putin’s war of aggression and other refugees fleeing persecution.
The bipartisan border policy changes negotiated by Senators Chris Murphy (D-CT), Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), and James Lankford (R-OK).
$20.23 billion to address existing operational needs and expand capabilities at our nation’s borders, resource the new border policies included in the package, and help stop the flow of fentanyl and other narcotics.
The Fentanyl Eradication and Narcotics Deterrence (FEND) Off Fentanyl Act.
$400 million for the Nonprofit Security Grant Program to help nonprofits and places of worship make security enhancements.

“The Senate’s bipartisan agreement is a monumental step towards strengthening America’s national security abroad and along our borders,” said Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) of the deal. “This is one of the most necessary and important pieces of legislation Congress has put forward in years to ensure America’s future prosperity and security.”

Over in the House, Rep. Dan Bishop (R-NC) said he’s a “hard NO on any bill legitimizing illegal immigration.“

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How nice for all involved, except US taxpayers.

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END

KING REPORT

The King Report February 5, 2024 Issue 7173

Independent View of the News

King Report on Friday: Team Obama-Biden wants a stronger-than-reality NFP, and they usually concoct one. Discerning traders and investors will focus on seasonal adjustments, any discrepancy with Household ‘Employed’, and NFP revisions.

January NFP are 353k; 185k was consensus. December was revised to 333k from 216k. The Unemployment Rate remained at 3.7%, 3.8% was expected.

There is a 384k discrepancy between NFP (+353k) and the Household Survey’s ‘Employed’ (-31k). Numerous pundits jumped on this gaping discrepancy and slammed the Team Obama-Biden for issuing more fraudulent US economic data. If the leftists would have only juiced NFP by a modest amount, there would be far fewer people labeling January NFP as bogus. But Team Obama-Biden got greedy, or maybe more desperate given The Big Guy’s woeful approval ratings.

The BLS reduced the January seasonal adjustment by 11k.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm

BLS Birth/Death jobs -121k, for January 2023 it was -144k.
https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbdhst.htm

@zerohedge January 29, 2024: PS: if anyone expects any econ data in the election 2024 year to be i) accurate or ii) make any sense, you will be severely disappointed.
     It’s safe to assume that all Establishment Survey numbers are now completely made up… Not only that, but while the US allegedly added 353K jobs, and employment dropped by 31K, full-time jobs actually declined by 63K and part-time jobs surged by 96K. Clearly none of that mattered to the BLS, however, which had just one mission: to make the Biden economy look double super good-good ahead of the November elections…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/january-jobs-shocker-payrolls-explode-353k-double-expected-and-higher-all-estimate-wages

@profstonge: “Inside the Most Ridiculous Jobs Report in Recent History” – Apparently government statisticians get more creative in election years    https://twitter.com/profstonge/status/1753492262296625481

The usual Street shills eagerly and blindly swallowed the obvious bogus NFP data.

Blockbuster US Jobs Report Turns Slowdown Narrative on Its Head – BBG
Strong hiring is likely to delay Federal Reserve rate cuts

The ‘blockbuster US Jobs Report’ also turned the Fed on its head. Some Fed officials must know that Team Obama-Biden is crafting fraudulent US economic data to aid and abet The Big Guy. Powell in his press conference on Wednesday acknowledged that a reason for ugly consumer sentiment surveys is that consumers pay higher prices than what CPI says.

@FreightWaves: As the Bureau of Labor Statistics signaled in August, the annual revision of employment data shows fewer truck transportation jobs last year than initially reported.
https://t.co/6jTzXswFS1

@kerpen: How many times can Biden get favorable headlines for jobs that are later revised away?

@zerohedge: There is a 9 million gap between the number of U.S. “Jobs” (NFP) and the number of “employed” workers (in Household Survey).    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1753477200118988891

Establishment Survey Highlights
Healthcare & Social Assistance +100.4k, Professional and business services +74k, Retail +45.2k, Government +36k; Wages +0.6% m/m and +4.5% y/y (0.3% m/m & 4.1% y/y expected), Workweek 34.1, 34.3 expected    https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm

Bad Weather Boosted Wage Numbers in January Jobs Report
    Shorter weeks in retail, hospitality boosted hourly earnings
    Earnings rose 0.6% in January, the most since March 2022… But average weekly hours fell to an almost four-year low of 34.1 from 34.3, likely due to the large number of people who were unable to work as a result of bad weather during the reference week of the survey…   https://t.co/AcNB3UXuYW

Team Obama-Biden hammered bond longs and those traders that manically cover their bonds shorts on fears that the US regional bank crisis has reappeared. USHs rallied as much as 2 14/32.

Commodities got hammered because the bogus January NFP squashes all March rate cut hopes and severely jeopardizes the hoped for May cut. Astute traders realize that Team Obama-Biden deceit is not likely to end anytime soon. Months of bogus NFP data will probably appear. This could but the kybosh on the widely prophesized 2024 rate cuts by the Street’s ‘Best & Brightest.’

@zerohedge: Native-born American workers plunged by 1.9 million in the past 2 months. All job gains since June 2018 have gone to foreign-born workers.
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1753468367397060737

@Convertbond: On an hours-adjusted basis, payrolls would have declined by the equivalent of 485k full-time jobs during January due to the decline in average hours worked.
https://twitter.com/Convertbond/status/1753520313009078385

Fed’s Goolsbee says January jobs report was ‘almost breathtaking’ on surface, but details ‘not as strong’  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-goolsbee-says-january-jobs-report-was-almost-breathtaking-on-the-surface-8823a8fb

@ABC: Blockbuster job growth in the past several months has coincided with high-profile layoff announcements by a number of large companies… Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a leading outplacement firm, reported this week that businesses announced 82,000 layoffs in January, the second-most for any January since 2009… https://t.co/GrlI4uWTyG

Stocks remained buoyant on Friday due to Amazon and Meta’s splendid results. The NY Fang+ Index hit +5.2% at 12:36 ET; Meta was +23.1% and Amazon was +8.3%!

ESHs traded sharply higher but sideways from the Nikkei opening until they broke down after the US January Employment Report. ESHs hit a daily low of 4925.75 at 9:03 ET. Thereafter, traders eagerly and aggressively bought ESHs until they hit 4983.50 at 12:33 ET.

After a breath-taking drop to 4958.75 at 12:43 ET, traders got jiggy for the Friday afternoon rally. ESHs steadily rallied to a daily high of 4997.75 at 15:13 ET. They then tumbled to 4972.00 at 16:00 ET on reports that the US bombed 8 to 10 Iran-backed military sites in Iraq and Syria.

(French shipping giant) CMA CGM halts Red Sea transit on security risks
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/cma-cgm-halts-red-sea-transit-on-security-risks-source-3291574

Beef prices expected to stay high as drought causes America to run low on cows https://trib.al/tPZSuJQ

US manufacturers poised for resumed growth, diesel shortage
If the manufacturing sector returns to growth… diesel consumption will start to rise again in the first half of 2024. But distillate inventories were just 131 million barrels on Jan. 26, which was still 10 million barrels (-7% or -0.54 standard deviations) below the prior 10-year seasonal average…
    If the manufacturing sector starts growing again, fuel inventories will deplete and fuel prices will start to escalate relatively quickly. http://reut.rs/3SKeaGY

Biden takes aim at grocery stores for ‘ripping people off’ amid continued high prices: ‘Played for suckers’ https://t.co/feTUgqKzTp

@KobeissiLetter: A record $8.9 trillion of government debt will mature over the next year. Meanwhile, the government deficit in 2024 is projected to be $1.4 trillion. This means that someone will need to buy more than $10 trillion in US government bonds in 2024… Who’s going to fund all of this debt?

Positive aspects of previous session
Stocks rallied on Amazon and Meta’s results

Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds and commodities tumbled while the dollar soared on demise of imminent rate cuts narrative

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How fake is US economic data? When will more ‘experts’ realize this scam?
Meta Adds $197 Billion in Value, Biggest Gain in Market History – BBG (sign of bubble?)
Bezos Discloses Plan to Unload Amazon Stocks (50m shares) as Shares Surge – BBG

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4947.30
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 4975.29; 4907.99

Fox’s @LucasFoxNews: It appears more bombs were dropped by U.S. bombers than people were killed, evidence of the advance warnings given to Iran and its proxy forces and focus by U.S. defense secretary on striking “capability.”
     Sen. Graham: “The only Iranian we killed in Syria or Iraq is some dumbass that doesn’t know to get out of the way. We gave him a week’s notice.” @FoxNewsSunday…

@CBSNews: President Biden is facing criticism for telegraphing Friday’s U.S. strikes in the Middle East, with reports that a number of Iranian intelligence and military officials who may have assisted the militias involved in the attack on U.S. troops had already fled. https://cbsn.ws/3w4vvlh

Politico’s @laraseligman: Intelligence officials have calculated that Tehran does not have full control over its proxy groups in the Middle East, including those responsible for attacking and killing U.S. troops in recent weeks, according to two U.S. officials.
     @davereaboi: Literally nobody believes this—not at the Pentagon, Foggy Bottom, the IC, the White House, nobody. It’s so ridiculous, even the Leftists at these places don’t believe it. This is a lie they’ve concocted so they can retain their pro-Iran policy.
    “Full control” is a weasel word. IRGC is in all these places, and everyone knows it.

GOP Sen. @SenTomCotton: The Biden administration is leaking questionable intelligence to absolve Iran of killing and wounding dozens of Americans in anticipation of what will be weak, ineffective retaliation. Shameful and cowardly.

US, UK conduct strikes on at least 30 Houthi targets in Yemen (on Saturday)
https://nypost.com/2024/02/03/news/us-uk-conduct-strikes-on-at-least-30-houthi-targets-in-yemen-reports/

The Senate bill on aid for Ukraine, Israel, and the US border security has been released.
https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/emergency_national_security_supplemental_bill_text.pdf

The bipartisan $118.28B supplemental bill’s spending breakdown:$60.06 billion in military aid to Ukraine$14.1 billion in military aid to Israel$20.23 billion for border security$10 billion humanity aid to Gaza, Ukraine, Israel, and other “conflict zones” on Planet Earth
https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1754289014662688887/photo/1
Senate FINALLY releases secretive $118BILLION border security bill: Congress faces uphill battle for passage after Donald Trump and Republicans signal deal is ‘dead on arrival’ https://trib.al/anMYJpY

@RyanGirdusky: And there it is… what (Dem) Sinema and (GOP) Lankford swore wasn’t in the bill. It guarantees that up to 1.8 million illegal aliens can come over our border before it’s an emergency.
https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1754295521177481658

GOP @SenatorLankford Jan 29: It’s absurd to think anyone who supports border security would agree to letting in 5,000 people a day illegally. I’m working to secure our border and deport illegal.. crossers.
https://twitter.com/SenatorLankford/status/1752134536685907984

GOP @RepTiffany: Any border “shutdown” that ALLOWS thousands of illegal crossings a day is a failure. And the Biden-Senate Amnesty Sellout ALLOWS up to 8,500 in a day before one.
https://twitter.com/RepTiffany/status/1754299572375949683

@AdamShawNY: @HomelandGOP Chair Mark Green says he will “vehemently oppose” any legislation that “legitimizes” any level of illegal immigration — just as the Senate border deal is released.

House GOP Conference Chair @EliseStefanik: This Joe Biden/Chuck Schumer Open Border Bill is an absolute non-starter and will further incentivize thousands of illegals to pour in across our borders daily. House Republicans have already passed HR2 – the Secure Our Border Act, which would actually secure the border…

Powell on “60 Minutes” (19:00 ET Sunday) HighlightsIt’s unlikely the Fed will have confidence to cut rates in MarchFOMC rate forecasts likely not changed much since Dec. (3 cuts in 2024, St wanted 6 cuts)“Integrity is priceless”; We don’t consider politics (Who would believe this?)Mover too soon and risk inflation settling above 2%But we don’t expect to see a decline in the overall price levelThe US is on an unsustainable fiscal path.“I don’t think there’s much risk of another 2008.” (When asked about US regional banks)Pelley voiceover said Powell suggested to him that the 1st rate cut could occur at midyear
“60 Minutes”: Fed Chair Jerome Powell shares why central bank hasn’t yet cut interest rates, even as inflation falls (official transcript)
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-chair-jerome-powell-interest-rates-60-minutes-transcript/

Stunningly, “60 Minutes” reporter Scott Pelley implied that official inflation is bogus: “Inflation is one thing. Prices are another. And I wonder if there’s any reason to believe that people will see the prices of things decline?” Jerome Powell: So the prices of some things will decline. Others will go up. But we don’t expect to see a decline in the overall price level. That doesn’t tend to happen in economies, except in very negative circumstances. If you think about the basic necessities, things like, you know, bread and milk and eggs prices are substantially higher than they were before the pandemic. And so that’s– we think that’s a big reason why people are– have been relatively dissatisfied with what is otherwise a pretty good economy…

Pelley questioned Powell on the Fed’s political bias: Your decisions inevitably are going to have a bearing on this year’s election. And I wonder, to what degree does politics determine your timing?    Jerome Powell: We do not consider politics in our decisions. We never do. And we never will…  Scott Pelley: There are people watching this interview who are skeptical about that…

WSJ’s @NickTimiraos: Powell goes on to note that because inflation printed high in the first five months of 2023, 12-month inflation rates should mechanically decline in the next few months as lower readings lap these higher readings. (But after that, y/y inflation readings could jump.)

Today – ESHs fell to 4965.00 (-15.25) at 19:48 ET on Powell’s “60 Minutes” remarks. But 1) the usual suspects are conditioned to play for a Monday rally; 2) despite the debunking of a Fed rate cut in March, the Fed and US Treasury are still flooding the system with ‘election year’ amounts of liquidity and 3) stocks have broken out to the upside. ESHs are -13.00 and USHs are -19/32 at 20:20 ET.

Expected Economic Data: Jan S&P Global US Services PMI 52.9, Composite 52.4; Jan ISM Services 52; Two huge Fed doves speak: Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee 10:00 ET, Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic 14:00 ET

Expected earnings: MCD 2.82, CAT 4.74

S&P Index 50-day MA: 4727; 100-day MA: 4534; 150-day MA: 4516; 200-day MA: 4442
DJIA 50-day MA: 37,141; 100-day MA: 35,497; 150-day MA: 35,264; 200-day MA: 34,851
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)

S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4314.46 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4633.13 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 4960.45 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4933.97 triggers a sell signal

White House turns down CBS interview request for a Super Bowl interview with President Biden
https://t.co/dzK8P1zwdq

Politicians crave having a Super audience. Yet Biden’s handlers fear such a forum. Last year, they turned down Fox, implying that The Big Guy disliked the network. What is their excuse this year?

Biden’s team bracing for special counsel’s report on classified docs
Biden aides don’t expect criminal charges in the case, but they believe Hur’s report will include embarrassing details — possibly with photos — on how Biden stored documents…
    Biden aides believe that Donald Trump, Biden’s likely foe in November, will try to use Hur’s report to create equivalency with the felony charges Trump faces related to his keeping classified documents after his presidency…  https://www.axios.com/2024/02/04/biden-special-counsel-classified-docs-trump

@NBCNews: As violent crime continues to rise in Washington, D.C., former President Trump, Republicans in Congress, and their allies are using the capital to portray the entire Democratic Party as soft on crime ahead of the November election.

@GOPoversight: Disbarred attorney jailed for bribery testifies he gave James Biden $800K in loans, only got half back in new twist.

House Speaker Johnson announces he will put forth a clean stand-alone Israel aid bill
The bill would offer no offsetting spending cuts. – Just the News
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/house-speaker-johnson-announces-he-will-put-forth-clean-stand-alone-israel-aid

Biden called Netanyahu a ‘bad f–king guy’ as war in Gaza costs him voters: report https://t.co/MbGtqrtIsd

Fox News: CNN anchors momentarily silent after learning why migrant gangs don’t stay in Florida: ‘There you go to jail’ https://t.co/kG6UQfK6lu

NYC launches $53M program to hand out pre-paid credit cards to migrant families https://trib.al/rndsmFm

@DrBuckinghamTX: NYC: Please stop bussing illegals immigrants here we are overwhelmed. Also, NYC: We will literally pay you to come here.

With all the freebies being gifted to illegals, it’s astounding that there aren’t more border crashers.

@elonmusk: Biden’s strategy is very simple: 1. Get as many illegals in the country as possible.   2. Legalize them to create a permanent majority – a one-party state. That is why they are encouraging so much illegal immigration. Simple, yet effective.
    This explains why there are so few deportations, as every deportation is a lost vote. As happened this week, you can literally assault police officers in broad daylight in New York, be released with no bail, give everyone the finger and *still* not be deported!!
     Most people in America don’t know that the census is based on a simple headcount of people (including illegals) *not* just citizens.  This shifts political power and money to states and Congressional districts with the highest number of illegals.
    In the “bet-you-didn’t-know” category, Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas issued written guidance making it clear that: 1. Illegal presence alone is not grounds for deportation. 2. Criminal charges, convictions or gang membership alone are not enough for deportation. You basically have to be a convicted axe murderer to be deported! That’s because every deportation is a lost vote.

@elonmusk: A few other things you probably don’t know: illegals in America can get bank loans, mortgages, insurance, driver’s licenses, free healthcare (California & NY) and in-state college tuition.
What’s the point of being a citizen if an illegal gets all the benefits, but doesn’t pay taxes or do jury duty?

Washington state diverted $340M in federal COVID funds to migrants https://t.co/NfI1wfHHN7

DOE To Push Forward $1.2 Billion Biden Plan to Expand Federal College-Prep Aid To Illegal Immigrants https://t.co/hbnLVyvPFJ

Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg DEFENDS releasing migrants accused of attacking cops in Times Square – as Supreme Court Judge slams him for prosecuting COVID-19 vaccine card dodgers while letting violent perps walk – State Supreme Court Justice Brendan T. Lantry slammed Bragg and dismissed felony charges brought by his office against two New Yorkers…
In the opinion, filed on Tuesday, Lantry said Bragg’s office ‘routinely move to dismiss significantly more serious counts or entire indictment to avoid harsher penalties for previously convicted felons or to avoid jeopardizing people’s immigration status.’
    It added: ‘These motions submitted [by Bragg and his prosecutors] are made months or even years after the 45-day period has expired to dismiss sexual assaults, drug sales, robbery, burglary, and other violent and non-violent serious felony offenses.’…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13041855/manhattan-da-defends-nyc-migrants-attack-cop-times-square.html

Connecticut to cancel medical debt for thousands statewide: governor’s office
The legislation was not included in the Appropriations Committee’s proposed budget, but the governor announced in June that there was a budget agreement with legislative leaders that included using $6.5 million in American Rescue Plan funds to erase hundreds of millions of dollars in medical debt that his office said disproportionately impacts Black and Latino families…
https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/connecticut-to-cancel-medical-debt-for-thousands-statewide-governors-office/3209652/

Since The Big Guy got away with ignoring the SCOTUS’s rulings on student debt forgiveness, Dems now see an opportunity to unconstitutionally abrogate debt without legal consequences.

This Bay Area school district spent $250,000 on Woke Kindergarten program. Test scores fell even further    https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/woke-kindergarten-glassbrook-hayward-18635504.php

The Cloward–Piven strategy is a political strategy outlined in 1966 by American sociologists and political activists Richard Cloward and Frances Fox Piven. It is the strategy of forcing political change leading to societal collapse through orchestrated crises. The “Cloward-Piven Strategy” seeks to hasten the fall of capitalism by overloading the government bureaucracy with a flood of impossible demands, amassing massive unpayable national debt, and other methods such as unfettered immigration thus pushing society into crisis and economic collapse by overwhelming the United States…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloward%E2%80%93Piven_strategy

Donald Trump claims he looks like Elvis in bizarre Instagram post telling followers that ‘for many years people have been saying we look alike’ (Vote for the lesser old fool?) https://t.co/P2oJ4YJHPD

Harvard to host Palestinian prof (Dr. Dalal Saeb Iriqat) who blamed Israel for Oct. 7, called attacks ‘normal human struggle’    https://www.foxnews.com/media/harvard-to-host-palestinian-prof-who-blamed-israel-for-oct-7-called-attacks-normal-human-struggle.amp

Dem @SenFettermanPA: I am truly appalled that the Kennedy School (Harvard) would platform an individual who celebrates and justifies Hamas’ October 7th killing of Israeli citizens—babies, children, the elderly, and the systemic, rape, mutilation, and torture of young girls and women.

Ex-federal prosecutor @shipwreckedcrew: Everyone I know connected to the Nat. Sec. community believes that sleeper-cells of multiple nationalities are in place and prepared to strike against civilian targets just as happened in Israel.
   It will be mostly soft-targets in urban areas, but because of the enormous geography of the country, the strikes are likely to be numerous and widespread.  It is too late to stop this.  Too many are already in the country, and there has to be working assumption that there are many such groups as of yet not identified. The next 6-8 months could get ugly.

“If I go, Iran will go, and if Iran goes, the Middle East will go, and great terror will rule the world.” – The Shah of Iran in 1979 (But liberals and Jimmy Carter wanted him gone. The rest is history!)

After the alarming Egyptian attack on Israel in 1973, Henry Kissinger decided to make the Shah of Iran the policeman of the Middle East. Jimmy Carter in 1979 subverted that plan. And even worse, after allowing the Shah to fall, Carter tried to mitigate his disastrous decision by inviting the Shah to exile in the USA. This inflamed the radical Islamic fundamentalists that took control of Iran. “Death to America’ and “America is the great Satan” became rallying chants to foment hate against the USA.

GREG HUNTER interviewing Catherine Fitts

Gold & Silver Fight Tyranny – Catherine Austin Fitts

Gold & Silver Fight Tyranny – Catherine Austin Fitts

By Greg Hunter On February 3, 2024 In Political Analysis67 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)

Catherine Austin Fitts (CAF), Publisher of The Solari Report, financial expert and former Assistant Secretary of Housing (Bush 41 Admin.), says, “The federal government is being run as a criminal enterprise. . . .not just a little criminal, but a lot criminal.” CAF thinks now is the time for state governments to act to protect their citizens from the dangers of a falling dollar and increasing central control over “We the People.” CAF explains, “One of the things we are talking with the states about is Sovereign State Banks, so they can protect their transactions in dollars. We are also talking about State Bullion Depositories. This is so states can protect their rainy-day reserve and, ultimately, their transaction ability with gold and silver. Under the Constitution, the states have those powers. This is very important if we are going to have sovereignty as individuals and not wake up one day and find ourselves in the same spot as the Canadian truckers who had their bank accounts shut down for protesting the CV19 lockdowns and mandates. More and more, we are seeing people say the ‘wrong things,’ and suddenly they find their bank account is shut down. So, if we are going to have individual sovereignty, we need governments that can provide sovereignty. . . . . The states have the power to implement financial transaction arraignments to protect our financial transaction freedom. Without our financial transaction freedom, we are literally going to lose all of our freedoms.”

CAF says there are many reasons to be concerned for the dollar as the world reserve currency system. Fewer and fewer countries are paying for oil trade in dollars. The US now has record debt and likely it cannot be paid back—ever. CAF also points out, “We are seeing a serious loss of confidence for the US federal government to keep its word. As we see this erosion of confidence, we see the US government and central banks assert more and more control in a way which is nothing but tryanny. . . . The challenge in the dollar system is that the dollar system has been managed in a very corrupt way. That corruption has made the dollar system much more expensive and much less efficient than it could be. The corruption is destroying the productivity of the dollar system. That is telling people all over the world that this is a system you cannot rely on and you can’t trust. It is also devastating to the brand of the dollar system for the military not to look strong. . . . What you are watching is a diminishing of trust all around the world. . . . People are wondering how we are going to survive if the dollar system is going to continue to erode?”

CAF also talks about the CV19 murder and disability program and how that is going to affect the economy and the November 2024 Election. CAF says, “A lot can happen before November. . . .I had a preacher who once told me, ‘If we can face it, God can fix it.’”

There is much more in the 1-hour and 5-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with the Publisher of The Solari Report, Catherine Austin Fitts. CAF does a deep dive into “US State Bullion Depositories” for 2.3.24.

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

(Tech Note: If you do not see the video, know it is there. Unplug your modem and plug it back in after 30 sec. This will clear codes that may be blocking you from seeing it. In addition, try different browsers. Also, turn off all ad blockers if you have them. Finally, clear your Cashe and that might help too. https://its.uiowa.edu/support/article/719 All the above is a way Big Tech tries to censor people like USAWatchdog.com.)

After the Interview:

You can get way more cutting-edge analysis from Catherine Austin Fitts and “The Solari Report” by becoming a subscriber and clicking here.

SEE YOU ON TUESDAY