FEB 9/BLOG FOR FRIDAY/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $8.60 TO $2024.30//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 4 CENTS TO $22.56//PLATINUM FELL BY $17.85 TO $876.15 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $18,00 TO $870.60/LIVE FROM THE VAULT NO 159; A MUST VIEW//EUROPE BENDS THEIR KNEE TO FARMERS WHO PROTESTED AGAINST NEW GREEN DEAL//ISRAEL VS HAMAS: ISRAEL STARTS TO BOMB RAFAH//ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH UPDATES/ISRAEL VS SYRIA UPDATES//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY UPDATES: MARK CRISPIN MILLER/SLAY NEWS ETC/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//TUCKER CARLSON INTERVIEWS VLADIMIR PUTIN; A MUST VIEW//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT../
A Hospital in Russia which specializes in treating Senior Citizens who suffer from Dementia, has new advertising posters showing . . . . Joe Biden
Biden supporters in the US have allegedly responded with a poster of their own:
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 59 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Beginning Monday, April 1, 2024, CME Group settlement data will no longer be accessible through ftp.cmegroup.com and will have a delayed publication time of 12:00 a.m. CT on all cmegroup.com web pages. Learn about alternate ways to access the data in our FAQ.
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 38 365 C MAREX CAPITAL M 8 661 C JP MORGAN 25 690 C ABN AMRO 6 3 737 C ADVANTAGE 2
TOTAL: 41 41 MONTH TO DATE: 16,482
JPMorgan stopped 0/41 contracts.
FOR FEB.:
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR FEB/2024. CONTRACT: 41 NOTICES FOR 4100 OZ or 0.1275 TNNES
total notices so far: 16,482 contracts for 1,648,200 Oz (51.265 tonnes)
FOR FEBRUARY:
SILVER NOTICES 8 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 40,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1066 for 5,330,000 oz
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END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
GLD
WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60//CROOKS
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES INTO THE GLD/
INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.66 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS AT THE SLV//
SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV AGAIN: A DEPOSIT OF 600,000 OZ INTO THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 440.040 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 284 CONTRACTS TO 148,280 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0.29 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. WE HAD A ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION BUT ATTEMPTED AND FAILED SHORT COVERING AS THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE APPRECIABLY AGAIN. WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS 3588 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 3588 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE NOW SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.29), AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 397 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A GOOD SIZED 425 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.535 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) ACCOMPANYING A STRANGE 89 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR EX. FOR RISK FOR 445,000 OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE/ FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 530,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL; 6.97 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 6.97 MILLION OZ
/ FAIR SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 3588 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED 643 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF FEB
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 7 days, total 3861 contracts: OR 19.305 MILLION OZ (551 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 19.305 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 118.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 19.305 MILLION OZ.
RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 284CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAININ PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 425 ISSUED FOR MARCH AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR FEB. OF 3.535 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANIED BY FIRST DAY NOTICE OF 445,000 OZ EX. FOR RISK FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 530,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL 6.97 MILLION OZ
NEW STANDING 6.97 MILLION OZ /// WE HAVE A STRONG GAIN OF 784 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUMONGOUS SIZED 3588 CONTRACTS//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH ATTEMPTED AND FAILED SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS (OPEN INTEREST ROSE DRAMATICALLY AGAIN) . THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT DAY NIGHT (35388) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 8 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 40,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1031 CONTRACTS TO 420,398 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: + added 207 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI ( 1031 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR $2.70 LOSS IN PRICE//THURSDAY. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR FEB. AT 49.773 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE ACCOMPANIED BY FIRST DAY NOTICE : 55,400 OZ EX. FOR RISK //THUS INITIAL STANDING FOR FEB: 51.494 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4300 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW TOTAL OF GOLD STANDING: 54.248 TONNES // ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $2,70 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A TINY SIZED GAIN OF 25 OI CONTRACTS (0.0777) PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1056CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 420,398
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 25 CONTRACTS WITH 1031 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 1056EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 25 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A GOOD SIZED 2843 CONTRACTS.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1056CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1031) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 25 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR FEB. AT 49.773 TONNES PLUS FIRST DAY NOTICE OF 1.723 TONNE OZ EX. FOR RISK FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4300 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 54.248 TONNES. / 3) MINIMAL LONG LIQUIDATION // 4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: GOOD T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 3049CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
FEB.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEB. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 25,503 CONTRACTS OR 2,550,300OZ OR 79.32 TONNES IN 7TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3643 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 7TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 79.32 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 79.32/3550 x 100% TONNES 2.22% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 79.32 TONNES (SHOULD BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (FEB), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 284CONTRACTS OI TO 148,280 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 5 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 425 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MARCH 425 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 425 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 284 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 425 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,
WE OBTAIN A FAIR GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 397CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 1.985 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 131,49 PTS OR 0.83% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 34.14 OR 0.09% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.12% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed D
/OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.2146 /Oil UP TO 76.46 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 81.43/ Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXXXX AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1031 CONTRACTS TO 420,398 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $2.70 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY TRADING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 1056 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : APRIL 1056 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1056CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 25 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1056 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1031 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $2.70 THURSDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS A GOOD SIZED 2843 CONTRACTS. THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS SOLD OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: FEB (54.248 TONNES) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 54.248 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT LOST $2.70 //// AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING A FEW SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A TINY SIZED GAIN OF25 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF THURSDAY’S TRADING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS. WE ALSO EXPERIENCED NERVOUS SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING AS LONGS NOTIFIED THE CME THAT THEY WERE TAKING DELIVERY ON THEIR JUST PURCHASED GOLD CONTRACTS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 0.0777 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR FEB. (49.773 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE ALONG WITH AN EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 1.7235 TONNES. THIS WAS FOLLOWED WITH TODAY’S 4300 OZ QUEUE JUMP (.1337 TONNES//NEW TOTAL STANDING 54.248: ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $2.70
WE HAD + added 207 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 25 CONTRACTS OR 2500 OZ OR 0.0777 TONNES. estimated volume today: 115,758 extremely poor
final gold volumes/yesterday 147,865 extremely poor
30,864.402 oz JPMorgan Manfra includes 39 kilobars)
.
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
2420.55 oz HSBC enhanced
No of oz served (contracts) today
41 notice(s) 4100 OZ .1275 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
405 contracts 40,500 oz 1.259 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
16,482 notices 1,648,200 oz 51.265 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 2
i) out of Manfra: 1253.889 oz (39 kilobars)
ii) Out of jPMorgan: 29,610.513 oz
total withdrawals 30,869.402 oz
we had 0 customer deposits
Adjustments: 5 dealer to customer
total 154,505.222 oz (4.8 tonnes)
a)) Brinks 2,200.993 oz
b)) HSBC 98,558.671 oz
c)JPMorgan 9000.900 oz
d) 3591.304 int. delaware
e) 37,423.685 oz Manfra
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR FEB.
For the front month of FEBRUARY we have an oi of 446 contracts having LOST 10 contracts. We had 53 notices filed on Thursday, so we gained 43 contracts or an additional 4300 oz will stand for delivery at the comex as they took delivery over on this side of the pond.
We also had 554 notices filed under exchange for risk on first day notice for a total of 55,400 oz or 1.723 tonnes to which must be added to the delivery cycle.
Thus initial standing for gold for February is 50.136 tonnes + 1.723 tonnes = 51.859 tonnes. This was followed with today’s queue jump of 13,300 oz for .4136 tonnes//New standing 52.409 tonnes + 1.723 tonnes = 54.132 TONNES
March lost 40 contracts to stand at 2038
APRIL LOST 2347 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 342,302.
We had 41 contracts filed for today representing 4100 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer account and 25 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 41 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped ( (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEB. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (16,482 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (446 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 41 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,688,700 OZ OR 52.525 TONNES + 1.723 Ex for Risk/prior = 54.248 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB. contract month: No of notices filed so far (16,482) x 100 oz + (446) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (41) x 100 oz which equals 1,688,700 oz (52.525 TONNES) + 54,400 oz (1.723 TONNES) ex. for risk/prior// NEW total standing OR 54.248 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR FEB: 54.248 TONNES WHICH IS GREAT FOR AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 18,999,449.783 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 8,669,720.823 (269.66 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,229,728.900 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 7,246,565 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 225.398 tonnes
END
SILVER/COMEX
FEB 9/INITIAL
//2024// THE FEB 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
657,243/179 oz
CNT Delaware HSBC
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
i) 1,758,560.800 ASAHI ii) Brinks: 479,968.000 oz
total 2,238,528.800
oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
8 CONTRACT(S) (40,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
239 contracts (1,195,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
1066 Contracts (5,330,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit: nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 2 deposits customer account:
i) Into ASAHI 1,758,560.800 o
ii) Into Brinks 479,968.000 oz
total customer deposits 2238,528.800 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 129.806 million oz/274.596 million or 47.61%
adjustment: 0
Comex withdrawals: 3
i) Out of CNT: 576,248.640 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 993.779 oz
iii) Out of HSBC 80,000.760 oz
total withdrawal: 657,243.179 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 42.873 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 274.596 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF FEB. /2023 OI: 247 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 106 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 106 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 560,000 OZ OF SILVER CONTRACTS WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY.
MARCH LOST 5064 CONTRACTS TO 90,010
APRIL SAW A GAIN OF 2 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 18
MAY SAW A GAIN OF 3946 CONTRACTS UP TO 40,842
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 8 for 40,000 oz
Comex volumes// est. volume today 55,010 fair
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 83,679 very good
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1066 x 5,000 oz = 5,330,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (247) and the number of notices served upon today 8 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the FEB/2024 contract month: 1066 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of FEB. (247) – number of notices served upon today (8 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the FEB contract month equates to 6.525 MILLION OZ. + .445 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK PRIOR//NEW TOTAL 6.97 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 6.97 million oz.
There are 42.873 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
FEB9/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.66 TONNES
FEB8/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.70 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.22 TONNES:
FEB7/WITH GOLD UP $0.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.04 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.69 TONNES:
FEB6/WITH GOLD UP $8.50 TODAY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:/ / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES:
FEB5/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.85 TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A DEPOSIT OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.73 TONNES:
FEB 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.95 TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.15 TONNES:
FEB 1/WITH GOLD UP $5.00 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.15 TONNES:
JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $16.40 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.88 TONNES:
JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $6.50 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.16 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.89 TONNES:
TOTAL IN LAST 18 DAYS WITHDRAWAL OF 14.12 TONNES
JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $8.70 TODAYHUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.05 TONNES
JAN 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $2.50 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.75 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP $3.95 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.93 TONNES
JAN 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.00 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 860.95 TONNES
JAN 19/WITH GOLD UP $8.15 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES
JAN 18/WITH GOLD UP $14.85 TODAY:HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.30 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.10 TONNES
JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $23.25 TODAY: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .549 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.;//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.40 TONNES
JAN 12/WITH GOLD UP $31.65 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES
JAN 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//://INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.99 TONNES
JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 9/WITH GOLD UP $0.95 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD://INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.85 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.61 TONNES FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.60 TONNES
JAN 5/WITH GOLD UP $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.60 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.90 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.21 TONNES
JAN 2/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///. // INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.11 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 843.66 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 600,000 OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.040 MILLION OZ
FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ
FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.04 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ//LAST 9 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 6/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.144 MILLION OZ//LAST 9 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 32 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.345 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.144 MILLION OZ//LAST 8 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.489 MILLION OZ//LAST 7 DAYS: 14.105 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
FEB 1/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.19 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.947 MILLION OZ//LAST 6 DAYS: 10.3018 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.7438 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.137 MILLION OZ//LAST 5 DAYS: 9.1118 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.876 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 442.699 MILLION OZ//LAST 4 DAYS: 7.368 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP $.37 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.105 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 444.575 MILLION OZ
JAN 26/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.556 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /INVENTORY RESTS AT 446.680 MILLION OZ
JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP $0.03 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.831 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // /
INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.236 MILLION OZ
JAN 24/WITH SILVER UP $0.44 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 1.375 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 450.067 MILLION OZ
JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.21 TODAY MEGA CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 16.201 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV(FAIRY TALES) // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 448.694 MILLION OZ
JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.45 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ
JAN 19/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.11 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.493 MILLION OZ
JAN 18/WITH SILVER UP $0.13 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.951 MILLION OZ
JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.38 TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 779,000 OZ FROM THE SLV.: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.62 TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.500 MILLION OZ
JAN 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 34 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ
JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 450,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.912 MILLION OZ
JAN 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV //INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ
JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,602,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 434.370 MILLION OZ
JAN 5/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 916,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.972 MILLION OZ
JAN 4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/:././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ
JAN 3/WITH SILVER DOWN 78 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 2.294 MILLION OZ OZ FROM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.056 MILLION OZ
JAN 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/: A WITHDRAWALOF 915,000 OZ FORM THE SLV././/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.35 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 440.04 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1:Peter Schiff/Mike Maharrey
World Gold Council: “Blistering Central Bank Buying” Fuels Strong Gold Demand
Last week, the World Gold Council (WGC) released its Gold Demand Trends report, which tracks developments in the demand for and use of gold around the world. Excluding over-the-counter (OTC) trade, 2023 gold demand fell slightly from 2022 to just under 4,500 tonnes. With OTC demand accounted for, last year’s demand peaked at 4,899 tonnes, the highest figure ever recorded.
Investment in bars and coins varied across the world. While demand in Europe fell in 2023, investment demand in India, Turkey, and the United States increased by 185, 160, and 113 tonnes, respectively. The WGC also notes that 2023 saw little overall change in gold mine productionand stable demand in the jewelry sector.
Also of note was gold’s record high price at year-end. At $2,078.4 per oz, gold finished the year 15% higher than it started. Its average price throughout 2023— $1,940.53 per oz— also broke records, exceeding 2022’s average price by 8%.
In a year of monetary tumult, central bankers themselves turned to gold, driving over 21% (1,037 tonnes) of 2023’s total demand and nearly setting a new demand record of their own. Central banks often hold a share of their foreign reserves in gold as a bulwark to economic and geopolitical instability. The Federal Reserve, for example, holds nearly 70% of its foreign reserves in gold.
“In addition to monetary policy, geopolitical uncertainty is often a key driver of gold demand, and in 2024 we expect this to have a pronounced impact on the market. Ongoing conflicts, trade tensions, and over 60 elections taking place around the world are likely to encourage investors to turn to gold for its proven track record as a safe haven asset.”
The reaction to Powell’s announcement is illustrative of gold’s hedge against uncertainty. While the stock market plummeted in response to the Fed’s hesitance, the spot price of gold climbed the following day to $2,054 per oz, almost surpassing its 30-day high price.
This resilience is likely what Louise Street has in mind when she predicts high gold demand for the rest of 2024:
“We know that central banks often cite gold’s performance in times of crisis as a reason to buy, which suggests demand from this sector will stay high this year and may help to offset a slowdown in consumer demand due to elevated gold prices and slowing economic growth.”
With the uncertainty of inflation, recessionary pressures, and political conflict around the world, gold may prove to be the best investment in 2024.
END
2) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
MATHEW PIEPENBURG
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA GOLD COMMENTARIES: daily Dispatches
* * *
‘Silver is the new gold’ as Egyptians try to protect savings
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2024-02-08 15:04 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Sarah El Safty and Farah Saafan Reuters Thursday, February 8, 2024
CAIRO — Egyptian women traditionally receive a gold jewellery set, or “shabka”, on their engagement. But as surging prices and a weakening currency have driven up demand for the precious metal, some are getting silver instead.
The trend is a measure of an economic crisis in which inflation has been running at more than 30% and the central bank has allowed the currency to weaken 50% against the dollar, with more devaluation expected.
“Silver is the new gold,” said a salesman at a Cairo silver store who only gave his first name, Abanob.
In the year to Jan. 30, the price of a gram of 21-carat gold rose more than 120% to 3,875 Egyptian pounds ($126), data from the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce showed.
Demand for gold coins and bars surged nearly 58% from 2022 to 2023, according to the World Gold Council’s annual report.
Eman Mahmoud, a 51-year-old mother of three, said she had to opt for silver when buying jewellery for a friend’s new baby.
“A small 18-carat earring weighing less than a gram is more than 3,000 pounds. I can’t afford that as a gift anymore so I bought a silver necklace for around 1,900,” she said. …
— and allows an estimate to be made of the volume of gold swaps undertaken by the BIS at the month end: 117 tonnes, a 4-tonne reduction from the swaps volume as of the end of December.
Hence January appears to have been a quiet month in BIS gold swaps. Four tonnes is one of the smallest changes uncovered since GATA commenced its review of these transactions in 2018.
A more detailed report on the use of gold swaps by the BIS was published last week to cover transactions in December 2023:
That report and previous ones said that these swaps are undertaken by the BIS or one or more of their central bank customers, with the swapped gold being accounted for as being held in a BIS-registered sight account at a central bank.
Given what is happening in the gold market more generally, it appears reasonable to assume that the Federal Reserve is the BIS’ customer for these gold transactions and they are used to facilitate surreptitious intervention in the gold market, most likely for price suppression.
—–
Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults for GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market.
* * *
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS
LIVE FROM THE VAULT WITH ANDREW MAGUIRE NO 160
END
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES /PLATINUM VS PALLADIUM
Platinum Never Cheaper vs Gold But Erases Palladium Price Discount
Friday, 2/09/2024 19:29
2024 forecasts predict big split for PGMs…
The PRICE of PLATINUM has erased its discount to sister metal palladium for the first time in 6 years, but it’s hit a new record discount against gold after the PGM metals both fell hard on concerns over 2024 supply and demand.
The ‘basket price’ of platinum-group metals sank by 38% last year, leaving “roughly half of global PGM mine supply operating at a loss,” says specialist consultancy Metals Focus, comparing spot bullion prices with the ‘all-in sustaining’ measure of mining costs
But while 2024 output will fall according to speakers at this week’s Mining Indaba conference in No.1 platinum producer South Africa as well as to No.1 palladium miner Nornickel in Russia, the projected cuts failed to stop both metals dropping hard in price this week, because demand may fall more steeply on some estimates.
That would reduce the supply deficit in platinum from last year’s record and threaten to create a surplus in palladium.
Chart of platinum price minus gold and minus palladium, last 10 years. Source: BullionVault
Analysts entering this year’s LBMA forecast competition on average forecast a palladium price drop of 20.7% across 2024 from last year’s annual level of $1337 per Troy ounce – an outcome they overshot by $472 in their consensus forecast for 2023.
Even the most ‘bullish’ forecast – given by Peter Fertig of Germany-based QCR Quantitative Commodity Research – predicts an annual average price drop of 6.5%, albeit more than 28% above palladium’s 2024 average price to date.
Platinum, in contrast, finds its most bearish forecast almost in line with last year’s level, with Alexander Zumpfe of German refiners Heraeus predicting $950 per ounce, while the most bullish prediction comes 14.5% above the 2023 annual average as bullion bank HSBC’s James Steel predicts $1105 per ounce, $100 higher than the consensus.
The most bearish palladium forecast, down at $724 per Troy ounce from Ross Norman of price data and news aggregator Metals Daily, would represent the precious metal’s cheapest annual average since 2016.
Forty per cent of current world platinum output goes to meet net demand for autocatalysts – needed to reduce harmful emissions from fossil-fuel engines – with the rest going to jewelry, investment coins and bars as well as industrial platinum uses across the chemicals, petroleum, electrical, glass and medical sectors.
Palladium in contrast finds over 90% of its demand from autocats, almost exclusively for gasoline-engine systems.
Platinum traded at a premium to the gold price all through the 20th Century, but fell below the ‘safe haven’ precious metal in 2015 as the “diesel scandal” broke around automakers cheating emissions standards, leading European consumers to switch to buying gasoline cars instead.
Platinum in 2017 then fell below the palladium price, sinking to a $2000 discount as the dearer PGM spiked to record highs when Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine spurred expectations for a Western import ban.
Palladium’s tighter supplies, price spike and premium to platinum eventually spurred substitution of the cheaper and more versatile metal into gasoline autocats, raising platinum’s auto-sector demand and hitting palladium’s even as the long-term outlook worsened for all internal- combustion engine systems amid rising sales of electric vehicles.
Estimates from the World Platinum Investment Council project a market surplus in palladium from 2025, while ongoing substitution, the rise of electric vehicles, and a “surge in secondary supplies due to higher auto recycling…puts palladium on a path of rising surpluses,” according to bullion refiners MKS Pamp’s Nicky Shiels.
“We are already seeing substitution slowing down or in some cases stopping,” says Nikos Kavalis at Metals Focus.
“It won’t be an overnight change, as autocatalyst designs can happen a long time before cars actually come off the production line.”
While erasing its discount to palladium this week, the price of platinum also fell hard in Dollar terms, beating November’s previous record platinum-gold discount with a gap of $1150 per Troy ounce.
“Despite a platinum market in deficit,” says consultant Robin Bhar, giving a near-consensus price forecast for 2024 of $1010 per Troy ounce, “the downward pressure from the weakening global economy is likely to keep the price in a similar trading range to last year.”
“Major producers have already initiated a halt to the expansion of new projects to contain costs and remain competitive in a market in transition,” says Debajit Saha of LSEG business Refinitiv, coming $5 the other side of the LBMA forecast competition’s $1015 consensus prediction.
Palladium’s consensus view, given by Bart Melek of Canadian brokerage T.D.Securities with a forecast of $1056 – just $4 below the competition’s average outlook – notes how speculators in CME Nymex futures and options have “built a behemoth net short position which notably weighed on prices over the last year” as substitution hit sentiment.
“Demand should post a rebound later in 2024,” Melek says, “once China’s economy [improves] and Western macro headwinds stop blowing as [interest] rates moderate…[and as] higher loadings [per autocat] associated with stricter air quality rules across the world…also contribute to the move higher.”
END
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
Bitcoin Soars To Post-ETF-Launch Highs As Net Inflows Explode
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, FEB 09, 2024 – 09:20 AM
Yesterday saw the third largest net inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling over $400 million with iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) seeing over $200 million inflows alone, dominating the $101 million outflow from GBTC…
Source: Bloomberg
The net inflow yesterday meant that 8,698 BTC were taken off the market and put into cold storage.
“We think bitcoin could be one of the most talked about brands on Wall Street in the next decade,” Mike Willis, CEO and founder of ONEFUND, told CoinDesk.
“You’re at the beginning of the ‘bitcoin era’ on Wall Street.” Although remiss to offer a price prediction, Willis said he thinks bitcoin could easily catch up to gold’s market cap.
That has pushed the total net inflow into spot bitcoin ETFs up to $2.23 Billion…
Source: Bloomberg
IBIT also became the first ETF to exceed GBTC’s daily trading volume. However, the total trading volume of all 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs fell below $1 billion for the first time since they launched.
Source: Bloomberg
The result of all this is that bitcoin prices have soared back up near $48,000, erasing all the post-launch ‘sell the news’ losses…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, this is a seasonally positive period for crypto:
“During the last 9 years, Bitcoin has been up every time traders would have bought bitcoin 3 days before and sold it ten days after the start of the Chinese New Year.”
Coinbase just issued a report that suggests Bitcoin spot ETF activity accounts for around 10-15% of total bitcoin trading activity across centralized exchanges.
Smaller tokens such as Ether, Solana and Cardano also pushed upward…
Source: Bloomberg
As CoinTelegraph reports, Coinbase analysts say there have been more important crypto themes emerging in the aftermath of the spot Bitcoin ETF launches in the U.S., including the rising decentralized finance (DeFi) activity, which could “add meaningfully” to the value proposition for Ether.
Ethereum community member and investor Ryan Berckmans believes that Ethereum’s switch from a proof-of-work to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism could drive ETH’s price to as high as $27,000 during the bull cycle.
“Bitcoin appears set to resume its march up after the Grayscale outflows finally tapered off,” said Caroline Mauron, co-founder of digital-asset derivatives liquidity provider Orbit Markets.
The “halving narrative” will gather momentum, potentially taking Bitcoin past $50,000 in the next few weeks, she said.
The quadrennial halving cuts the quantity of Bitcoin that miners receive for operating power-hungry computers that secure the network by solving complex puzzles.
Halving is key to capping the supply of Bitcoin at 21 million tokens. Rewards drop to 3.125 coins per block from 6.25 coins in the upcoming event.
Previous halving events “preceded strong bull runs,” a team including DBS Bank Ltd. Chief Economist Taimur Baig wrote in a note.
“There is a simple economic reason why prices should rise. As the reward for mining decreases, the price for mining output (namely Bitcoin) must increase to compensate and not trigger a withdrawal of computational resources by miners,” the team said.
With the growing demand from institutional investors, the diminishing supply could help BTC hit new market highs.
end
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSFRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2148
SHANGHAI CLOSED
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 131.48 PTS OR 0.83%
2. Nikkei closed UP 34.14 PTS OR 0.09%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 104.09 EURO FALLS TO 1.0767 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.723 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 149.46/JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: XXX// OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund DOWN TO +2.3605***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.938* /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.343…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.376
3j Gold at $2029.15 silver at: 22.59 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $30.00
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 30 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 90.77//
3m oil into the 76 dollar handle for WTI and 81 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 149,46// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.723% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8757 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9429 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.183 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.369 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.478 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.68…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 4 BASIS PTS AT 4.0960
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge
Equities marginally firmer, NZD bid and Crude remains at highs ahead of US CPI Seasonal Revisions – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, FEB 09, 2024 – 06:06 AM
European bourses are mixed and trading around the unchanged mark, with slight underperformance in the CAC 40, hampered by losses in L’Oreal; US equity futures mirror European peers
Dollar is incrementally firmer; Kiwi outperforms after ANZ lifts its RBNZ rate forecast
Bonds are around flat awaiting US CPI Revisions, German & UK 10yr yields notched fresh YTD peaks
Crude is holding near yesterday’s high after soaring more than 3% in the prior session; Gold and base metals are contained amid a lacklustre Dollar and China on holiday
Looking ahead, Canadian Employment, US CPI Seasonal Factor Revisions, BoC SLOOS, Comments from ECB’s Cipollone & Fed’s Logan.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses are mixed and trading around the unchanged mark, following a mostly higher APAC lead, with slight underperformance in the CAC 40, hampered by losses in L’Oreal (-6.2%) post-earnings.
European sectors are mixed; Healthcare is propped up by gains in Carl Zeiss Meditec (+9.4%) after it reported strong results. Utilities are on the back foot, after Enel (-0.9%) received a downgrade at RBC.
US Equity Futures (ES U/C, NQ +0.2%, RTY +0.3) are on a mixed footing, with overall price action mirroring that seen in Europe; Expedia (-13.9%) is lower after it reported a deeper than expected loss in FCF; Take-Two Interactive (-8.6%) suffers after cutting Net Bookings guidance.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings from Hermes, L’Oreal, Ubisoft & more.
The Dollar is contained within yesterday’s 103.95-104.43 range and in close proximity to the 100DMA at 104.17 ahead of US CPI revisions. A dovish release could see a breach of 104.00 and a test of several DMAs with the 200DMA at 103.60; whilst a hawkish release could see a retest of the recent YTD peak at 104.60.
EUR is yet to break out of yesterday’s 1.0741-1.0788 range. Likely to remain at the whim of the USD. Upside sees 100DMA at 1.0787.
Steadier trade for USD/JPY after printing a fresh YTD high at 149.57 overnight. Technicians highlight the importance of a close above the 76.4% fib of the Nov-Dec’24 move at 149.17. Resistance ahead of 150.00 comes via 27th Nov. high at 149.67.
The Kiwi is the G10 outperformer after ANZ bank forecasted that the RBNZ is to raise the OCR in Feb and April; currently 0.614
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1036 vs exp. 7.1996 (prev. 7.1063).
Mexican Central Bank kept its interest rate at 11.25%, as expected, with the decision unanimous and it removed the previous guidance about needing to hold the key rate for some time.
USTs are at the unchanged mark as relief from the well-received 30yr auction, making it three from three for the week, proved fleeting with focus switching from supply to the US CPI seasonal adjustment; currently flat in 110-22 to 110-30 bounds.
Bunds are contained/incrementally softer with specifics light into the US main event. Yields are mixed and exhibit no clear bias given the overall tone but the session’s 133.23-133.61 bound includes a new WTD & YTD trough.
Gilt price action is in-fitting with peers into the US session. BoE’s hawkish dissenter Haskel spoke pre-open and largely echoed the extensive remarks from peer Mann on Thursday; made a new WTD & YTD trough of 97.45.
Crude is holding near yesterday’s highs which saw the contracts settle higher by almost USD 2.50/bbl apiece amid broadening concerns of a widening Middle East conflict as Israel and Hamas have yet to come to a ceasefire agreement; Brent Apr trades around 81.75/bbl (81.36-81.84/bbl range).
Horizontal trade across precious metals amid light newsflow and a contained Dollar; XAU dipped back under its 50 DMA (USD 2,033.84/oz) but remains within yesterday’s range (USD 2,020.25-2,038.79/oz).
Mostly softer trade across base metals, in part amid the buoyant Dollar, whilst Chinese markets have also shut for some 10 days amid the Chinese New Year celebrations.
UK’s Ofgem says they are considering new rules to reduce the consumer cost which arises from supplier failures, costs claimed under a solar levy would be a liability of the failed supplier.
Franklin Templeton’s Head of European Fixed Income Zahn says BoE probably needs to cut rates sooner than peers; says he is overweight UK Government bonds.
DATA RECAP
German HICP Final YY (Jan) 3.1% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.1%); HICP Final MM (Jan) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.2%)
German CPI Final YY (Jan) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.9%); CPI Final MM (Jan) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
Italian Industrial Output YY WDA (Dec) -2.1% (Prev. -3.1%, Rev. -2.9%); Industrial Output MM SA (Dec) 1.1% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. -1.5%, Rev. -1.3%)
Norwegian Core Inflation MM (Jan) 0.0% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.2%); Core Inflation YY (Jan) 5.3% vs. Exp. 5.2% (Prev. 5.5%)
Norwegian Consumer Price Index YY (Jan) 4.7% vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 4.8%)
Hungarian CPI YY (Jan) 3.8% vs. Exp. 4.4% (Prev. 5.5%); Core CPI YY (Jan) 6.1% vs. Exp. 6.4% (Prev. 7.6%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Donald Trump wins the Nevada Republican caucus with 25/26 delegates appointed thus far.
Intel (INTC) – Moody’s downgraded Intel’s ratings to A3 from A2, with its outlook changed to stable from negative. The downgrade reflects its view that Intel’s financial profile will remain challenged over the next 12-24 months, and while its competitive position was expected to improve with further progress in its product and manufacturing process improvements, Moody’s said gross leverage will remain high and adj. FCF will remain negative as substantial R&D and capital investments will weigh on profitability and cash flow generation. Shares +0.5% in pre-market trade.
EARNINGS
PepsiCo Inc (PEP) – Q4 2023 (USD): core EPS 1.78 (exp. 1.72), Revenue 27.9bln (exp. 28.4bln); plans to buyback around USD 1bln in shares. Shares -1.7% in pre-market trade
Expedia Group Inc (EXPE) – Q4 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.72 (exp. 1.68), Revenue 2.89bln (exp. 2.88bln). Negative free cash flow USD 415mln (exp. negative USD 192.6mln). Gross bookings USD 21.67bln (exp. 22.0bln). Announces CEO transition plan with Ariane Gorin to succeed Peter Kern as CEO. (Newswires) Shares -14.1% in pre-market trade
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (TTWO) – Q3 2024 (USD): EPS -0.54, Revenue 1.37bln (exp. 1.34bln); currently working on a significant cost reduction programme across the entire business to maximise margins. Cuts FY24 net bookings view to 5.25-5.3bln (prev. 5.45-5.55bln, exp. 5.48bln). (Newswires) Shares -8.5% in pre-market trade
Hermes (RMS FP) – Q4 (EUR): Revenue 3.36bln (exp. 3.29bln). Sales at constant FX +17.5% (exp. +13.7%). FY recurring operating income 5.65bln (exp. 5.52bln). Proposes exceptional dividend of EUR 10/shr. Q4 Americas revenue +21.6% (exp. 12.1%). Q4 total Europe revenue +18.6% Y/Y. Q4 total Asia revenue +14.8% Y/Y. Confirms guidance. Executive Chairman says the Co. is very confident about the Chinese market; sees no interruptions in US trends (Newswires) Shares +4.5% in European trade
L’Oreal (OR FP) – Q4 2023 (EUR): Sales 10.61bln (exp. 10.89bln), +6.9% (exp. +9.56%). Q4: North Asia comp. sales -6.2%(exp. +7.29%). Europe sales 3.27bln, +11.6%. North America sales 2.84bln, +9.4%. Luxe sales 4.1bln, +0.4% (exp. +4.42%). Consumer product sales 3.7bln, +7.7%. Professional products sales 1.23bln, +6.4%. Dermatological beauty sale 1.5bln, +27.3%. FY23: EPS 12.08 (exp. 13.15), +7.3%. Sales 41.18bln (exp. 44.5bln), +7.3%. Operating margin 19.8%. Op. 8.1bln (exp. 9.08bln, prev. 7.4bln Y/Y). Notes of the stagnating beauty market in China. (FT/Newswires) Shares -5.8% in European trade
Ubisoft (UBI FP) – Q3 2023-24 (EUR): Sales 606mln (exp. 697mln, prev. 773mln), Net Bookings 626mln (prev. 727mln). Q4 Net Bookings seen “sharply up”, leading to a record annual net bookings figure. Reaffirms FY targets. “Moving forward, we’re gearing up for a very promising line-up for fiscal year 2025, including the upcoming release of Star Wars Outlaws’ in 2024″ (Newswires/ Ubisoft) Shares +17.5% in European trade
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
US President Biden said the conduct of Israel’s response in the Gaza strip has been over the top and he is pushing very hard now to get a sustained pause in Gaza.
White House said negotiations are ongoing regarding a hostage release and ceasefire deal, while it added that Secretary of State Blinken made it clear the US has concerns regarding Rafah operations. The White House also said that President Biden and German Chancellor Scholz will discuss Ukraine, the Middle East and the Red Sea shipping attacks.
US Central Command said its forces conducted seven self-defence strikes against four Houthi unmanned surface vessels on Thursday and conducted strikes against seven mobile anti-cruise missiles that were prepared to launch against ships in the Red Sea.
“Iranian militias move weapons and ammunition from Deir Ezzor to fortified Hezbollah positions on the Syrian-Lebanese border in anticipation of US strikes”, according to Sky News Arabia
OTHER
Russian President Putin said Russia has not yet achieved its goals in Ukraine and suggested the US should encourage Ukraine to resume talks, while he was said to sincerely believe that Russia has a historic claim to land in Ukraine. Putin said the US and Russia hold contacts at different levels and that Russia has no interest in Poland, Latvia or anywhere else, as well as noting that WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich may be freed if the special services agree. Furthermore, he said those in power in the West have come to realise it is impossible to inflict strategic defeat on Russia and are wondering what to do next, while he added that they are ready for this dialogue.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin (+2.7%) soars above USD 46.5k, lifting crypto-related stocks in the pre-market; Coinbase (+5.2%)
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mixed and were mostly subdued in holiday-thinned conditions ahead of the Lunar New Year.
ASX 200 was rangebound amid light catalysts, while RBA Governor Bullock reiterated a focus on bringing inflation down but noted that the Board hasn’t ruled in or out a further rate hike and even touched upon cuts.
Nikkei 225 breached 37,000 for the first time since February 1990 amid a weaker currency and earnings updates.
Hang Seng was pressured amid losses in property and tech in a shortened trading session and with mainland participants already away for Chinese New Year celebrations.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
US President Biden’s administration is said to consider restrictions on China EVs to address data security concerns, while the move would be an additional hurdle beyond tariffs to keep out Chinese smart cars, according to Bloomberg.
BoJ Governor Ueda said the chances are high for accommodative conditions to stay even if negative rates are abandoned, while he added they will pay heed to the health of the balance sheet if exit from stimulus policy draws near.
RBA Governor Bullock said the Board is focused on bringing inflation down and recent developments in inflation are encouraging but they have some way to go to meet the inflation target and noted while there are some encouraging signs, Australia’s inflation challenge is not over. Bullock also stated the Board hasn’t ruled out a further increase in interest rates but neither has it ruled it in, while she added that inflation doesn’t need to be in the 2%-3% band for them to think about rate cuts and if consumption slows more quickly than expected, it will be an opportunity to cut rates.
Data Recap
Chinese M2 (Jan): 8.7% Y/Y vs exp. 9.3%; New Yuan Loans 4.92tln (exp. 4.5tln)
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
S&P To Open Above 5000, Set To Make It 14 Weeks Higher Out Of 15, Matching Best Stretch On Record
FRIDAY, FEB 09, 2024 – 08:23 AM
US futures ticked higher again on Friday morning ahead of the release of CPI revision data (previewed here), assuring that the S&P 500 cash index will rise above the historic 5,000 level when it breaks for trading. S&P 500 futures traded 0.2% higher as 7:50am in New York, while contracts for the Nasdaq 100 Index gained 0.3% as Big Tech stocks made more advances in premarket trading. While Asian stocks fell, weighed by Hong Kong, as China was closed for holidays, European stocks gained paced by the Estoxx 50, where energy sector leads as WTI crude oil futures hold most of Thursday’s 3.2% advance. Meanwhile 10Y interest rates rose again, hitting 4.18%, leaving their yield up about 17 basis points in the past five days, as the US dollar and oil traded flat. Today, we get receive CPI revisions (updated seasonal factors and weights) where few expect any major changes but according to JPM, expect “headline inflation rates for recent months to be lowered somewhat on net.” The next key data point will be the regular US inflation print due Tuesday.
With the S&P set to close well above 4958, it will make it 14 up weeks out of the past 15…
… and it will match the best 15-week stretches in history according to Sentiment Trader.
In premarket trading, Expedia Group shares fell after the online travel agency reported fourth-quarter gross bookings that slightly missed estimates, and named Ariane Gorin chief executive officer of the online travel company, while Pinterest made steep losses after the social-media company’s revenue fell short of estimates.
Affirm Holdings (AFRM US) sank 10% after the buy-now, pay-later firm’s 2024 forecast for annual transaction volume came in below expectations. Analysts noted that the guidance appeared conservative as they do not see a slowdown in volumes in the second-half of the year.
Cryptocurrency-linked stocks rallied as Bitcoin rises past the $46,000 mark. Stocks gaining include: Marathon Digital (MARA) +11%, Riot Platforms +9%
Cloudflare (NET) soars 27% after reporting revenue that beat expectations, with analysts noting that sales were boosted by large new deals and renewals.
Masonite International (DOOR) soars 35% after agreeing to be bought by Owens Corning (OC).
PepsiCo (PEP) slips nearly 1% after providing a full-year sales forecast light of analysts’ estimates.
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO US) fell 8.9% after the video-game company slashed its full-year net bookings forecast below consensus estimates. Analysts flagged softness in NBA 2K24 sales and the pushback of a planned release to next year, though were still confident in GTA VI releasing in FY25.
Cryptocurrency-linked companies rallied on Friday as Bitcoin surged past the $47,000 mark after the latest flow data revealed the 2nd biggest net inflow on record into bitcoin ETFs as GBTC outflows trickle to a halt.
The BLS will release its annual revisions to its consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. New York time. Last year, the update was significant enough to cast doubt on overall inflation progress and traders were speculating again that the recalculations might sway views over when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates (full review here). “This could have important implications for the Fed,” wrote analysts at Rabobank in a research note. “It could increase or decrease the confidence that the FOMC has in a sustainable return to 2% inflation.”
Back to markets, on Thursday the S&P 500 briefly hit 5,000 for the first time after a massive buy program lifted the market as if just for that one reason, before closing little changed. US equities have posted only one weekly drop since late October and the gauge has more than doubled from its March 2020 pandemic-low — driven by expectations for a soft economic landing and optimism about the impact of artificial-intelligence.
“The equity market is responding to the positive data story and quite incredibly continues to march on,” said Charles Diebel, at Mediolanum International. “If growth holds up and there is a soft or no landing, that’s good for equities. And if something bad happens, the Fed will cut rates.”
Despite some soft earnings this season, US stocks have been buoyed by the technology sector and strong economic data, which has kept the benchmark rallying this year. The fun may be ending however: according to Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett, the rally is getting close to triggering sell signals. The bank’s custom bull-and-bear indicator is nearing a reading that could be interpreted as a contrarian signal to sell, he said.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 was little changed after contrasting updates from heavyweights Hermes and L’Oreal. L’Oreal shares tumbled 7% as Chinese shoppers reined in travel spending, while Tesco advanced after Barclays said it will acquire much of the supermarket chain’s banking business. Hermes rallied after reporting surging sales at the end of last year. Here are some of the biggest European movers on Friday:
Hermes shares gain as much as 6.1% to hit a fresh all-time high after the maker of Birkin handbags posted sales figures which exceeded expectations for the fourth quarter, raising hopes of further growth due to its exposure to ultra-rich clients.
Tesco shares rise as much as 2.4% after Barclays said it will acquire the grocer’s retail banking unit, which includes credit cards, unsecured personal loans, deposits and the operating infrastructure. Barclays shares fall 1.4%
Ubisoft shares soar as much as 17% after the French video-game company said its bookings in the current quarter will be “sharply up,” boosted by a slew of launches such as Skull & Bones and Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown.
Yara shares jump as much as 7.9% after the Norway-based fertilizer maker beat fourth-quarter adjusted Ebitda estimates. Sector peers OCI and K+S also gain.
Carl Zeiss Meditec shares surge as much as 13% after the German medical optics company reported Ebit for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The results were “decent,” given the low expectations, Bernstein analysts said.
Hexatronic shares jump as much as 36% after the Swedish fiber-optics firm reported its latest earnings described by Redeye as much better than feared, with cash flow particularly strong.
AMS-Osram shares gain as much as 19%. The company reported a good profitability outlook despite soft demand, which should be week received, according to Vontobel.
Coloplast shares jump as much as 11% after the Danish ostomy and continence care company reported stronger-than-expected margin in the first quarter. The Ebit margin is “solidly in the middle of the full-year guidance range,” according to Bernstein analysts.
L’Oreal shares slide as much as 7.7% after the beauty company’s like-for-like sales miss stoked concerns over a slowdown in its luxury and Asian businesses.
Deutsche PBB shares drop as much as 3.9%, hitting another all-time low amid concerns about exposure to commercial real estate, which have also hit its European peers this week.
Delivery Hero shares fall as much as 6.5% after Bloomberg reported that its major rivals in Southeast Asia, Grab and GoTo, have restarted talks for a merger.
EMS-Chemie shares fall as much as 5.4%, the most since April, after the Swiss chemical firm’s outlook disappointed, with analysts pointing to a tough operating backdrop.
Verbund shares decline as much as 9.5% to hit its lowest level since April 2021, after the power producer warned that earnings in FY24 will be significantly below market expectations because of the rapid drop in wholesale electricity prices and emission allowances, as well as a smaller contribution from its Grid segment.
Legal & General shares dip as much as 3.7% after Citi analyst Andrew Baker opens a 30-day downside catalyst watch.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell weighed by Hong Kong, while many markets including China, Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam were shut for public holidays. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped as much as 0.4%, dropping for a second day, as investors turned cautious about Chinese markets ahead of the multi-day Lunar New Year holiday. Alibaba and Toyota were among the biggest drags. The Hang Seng dropped 0.8% and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slid 1.1%, both falling a third straight day. Mainland markets were already shut for the holiday, which meant an absence of southbound flows as a potential support. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei 225 breached 37,000 for the first time since February 1990 amid a weaker currency and earnings updates. In Australia, the ASX 200 was rangebound amid light catalysts, while RBA Governor Bullock reiterated a focus on bringing inflation down but noted that the Board hasn’t ruled in or out a further rate hike and even touched upon cuts.
Stocks dropped in Hong Kong as there is “no further positive policy from the mainland, and no stock connect inflows,” said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian Hong Kong. There seemed to be limited buying interest in Hong Kong “other than that from the southbound stock connect recently.”
In rates, treasuries were steady, with US 10-year yields rising 1bps to 4.17%. Bunds and gilts have pared most of an earlier fall. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat. The kiwi tops the G-10 FX pile, rising 0.7% versus the greenback after economists at ANZ said the RBNZ will resume hiking interest rates later this month.
In rates, treasuries were marginally cheaper on the day, still inside weekly ranges, with yields higher by 1bp-2bp across the curve. US 10-year around 4.17% is ~1bp wider vs bunds and gilts in the sector; US 5s30s is little changed with corresponding German and UK curves flatter by ~3bp on the day. By contrast, core European rates see curve-flattening as German and UK long end outperform.
In commodities, oil prices edge up, with WTI rising 0.2% to trade near $76.30. Spot gold falls 0.1%. Bitcoin jumps 2.9%.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,019.50
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 485.36
MXAP down 0.1% to 167.34
MXAPJ down 0.2% to 511.59
Nikkei little changed at 36,897.42
Topix down 0.2% to 2,557.88
Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 15,746.58
Shanghai Composite up 1.3% to 2,865.90
Sensex up 0.3% to 71,615.71
Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,644.84
Kospi up 0.4% to 2,620.32
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.36%
Euro little changed at $1.0775
Brent Futures little changed at $81.66/bbl
Gold spot down 0.1% to $2,032.52
U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 104.15
Top Overnight News
The Biden administration is considering restrictions on imports of Chinese “smart cars” and related components that would go beyond tariffs to address growing US concerns about data security, according to people familiar with the matter. BBG
China’s property crisis is starting to ripple across the world. “For Sale” signs on buildings from Mayfair to Toronto are popping up as hard-pressed Chinese investors and creditors try to raise cash. Sales prices will help put hard numbers on just how much trouble the wider industry is in. BBG
China’s new yuan loans for Jan were ahead of plan at CNY4.92B (vs. the Street CNY4.5B and up from CNY1.1T in Dec) while aggregate financing spiked to CNY6.5T (nearly CNY1T above plan). SCMP
Financial conditions in Japan will remain easy for the time being even after the Bank of Japan puts an end to the world’s last negative rate regime, Governor Kazuo Ueda said. BBG
Barclays has agreed to buy the bulk of Tesco’s banking business in a £600mn deal, as UK supermarket chains accelerate their retreat from an ill-fated expansion into financial services. Barclays said on Friday that it would take on Tesco Bank’s credit cards and unsecured personal loans, totaling about £8.3bn of lending balances. It has also signed a 10-year distribution deal to sell financial products under the Tesco brand. FT
BOE policymaker Jonathan Haskel, who voted to raise interest rates last week, said he is encouraged by signs that Britain’s inflation pressures might be on the wane but he would need more evidence of a cool-down before changing his stance. RTRS
Joe Biden’s attempt to address suggestions he has a memory issue backfired with a new gaffe when he confused the leaders of Egypt and Mexico. Biden had summoned reporters to respond to a DOJ report fueling concerns about his age and insisted that his memory was “fine.” BBG
New York City’s housing crunch is the worst it has been in more than 50 years. The portion of rentals that were vacant and available dropped to a startling 1.4 percent in 2023, according to city data released on Thursday. It was the lowest vacancy rate since 1968 and shows just how drastically home construction lags behind the demand from people who want to live in the city. NYT
The special counsel investigating President Biden said in a report released on Thursday that Mr. Biden had “willfully” retained and disclosed classified material after leaving the vice presidency in 2017 but concluded that “no criminal charges are warranted.” NYT
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed and were mostly subdued in holiday-thinned conditions ahead of the Lunar New Year. ASX 200 was rangebound amid light catalysts, while RBA Governor Bullock reiterated a focus on bringing inflation down but noted that the Board hasn’t ruled in or out a further rate hike and even touched upon cuts. Nikkei 225 breached 37,000 for the first time since February 1990 amid a weaker currency and earnings updates. Hang Seng was pressured amid losses in property and tech in a shortened trading session and with mainland participants already away for Chinese New Year celebrations.
Top Asian News
US President Biden’s administration is said to consider restrictions on China EVs to address data security concerns, while the move would be an additional hurdle beyond tariffs to keep out Chinese smart cars, according to Bloomberg.
BoJ Governor Ueda said the chances are high for accommodative conditions to stay even if negative rates are abandoned, while he added they will pay heed to the health of the balance sheet if exit from stimulus policy draws near.
RBA Governor Bullock said the Board is focused on bringing inflation down and recent developments in inflation are encouraging but they have some way to go to meet the inflation target and noted while there are some encouraging signs, Australia’s inflation challenge is not over. Bullock also stated the Board hasn’t ruled out a further increase in interest rates but neither has it ruled it in, while she added that inflation doesn’t need to be in the 2%-3% band for them to think about rate cuts and if consumption slows more quickly than expected, it will be an opportunity to cut rates.
European bourses are mixed and trading around the unchanged mark, following a mostly higher APAC lead, with slight underperformance in the CAC 40, hampered by losses in L’Oreal (-6.2%) post-earnings. European sectors are mixed; Healthcare is propped up by gains in Carl Zeiss Meditec (+9.4%) after it reported strong results. Utilities are on the back foot, after Enel (-0.9%) received a downgrade at RBC. US Equity Futures (ES U/C, NQ +0.2%, RTY +0.3) are on a mixed footing, with overall price action mirroring that seen in Europe; Expedia (-13.9%) is lower after it reported a deeper than expected loss in FCF; Take-Two Interactive (-8.6%) suffers after cutting Net Bookings guidance.
Top European News
UK’s Ofgem says they are considering new rules to reduce the consumer cost which arises from supplier failures, costs claimed under a solar levy would be a liability of the failed supplier.
Franklin Templeton’s Head of European Fixed Income Zahn says BoE probably needs to cut rates sooner than peers; says he is overweight UK Government bonds.
FX
The Dollar is contained within yesterday’s 103.95-104.43 range and in close proximity to the 100DMA at 104.17 ahead of US CPI revisions. A dovish release could see a breach of 104.00 and a test of several DMAs with the 200DMA at 103.60; whilst a hawkish release could see a retest of the recent YTD peak at 104.60.
EUR is yet to break out of yesterday’s 1.0741-1.0788 range. Likely to remain at the whim of the USD. Upside sees 100DMA at 1.0787.
Steadier trade for USD/JPY after printing a fresh YTD high at 149.57 overnight. Technicians highlight the importance of a close above the 76.4% fib of the Nov-Dec’24 move at 149.17. Resistance ahead of 150.00 comes via 27th Nov. high at 149.67.
The Kiwi is the G10 outperformer after ANZ bank forecasted that the RBNZ is to raise the OCR in Feb and April; currently 0.614
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1036 vs exp. 7.1996 (prev. 7.1063).
Mexican Central Bank kept its interest rate at 11.25%, as expected, with the decision unanimous and it removed the previous guidance about needing to hold the key rate for some time.
Fixed Income
USTs are at the unchanged mark as relief from the well-received 30yr auction, making it three from three for the week, proved fleeting with focus switching from supply to the US CPI seasonal adjustment; currently flat in 110-22 to 110-30 bounds.
Bunds are contained/incrementally softer with specifics light into the US main event. Yields are mixed and exhibit no clear bias given the overall tone but the session’s 133.23-133.61 bound includes a new WTD & YTD trough.
Gilt price action is in-fitting with peers into the US session. BoE’s hawkish dissenter Haskel spoke pre-open and largely echoed the extensive remarks from peer Mann on Thursday; made a new WTD & YTD trough of 97.45.
Commodities
Crude is holding near yesterday’s highs which saw the contracts settle higher by almost USD 2.50/bbl apiece amid broadening concerns of a widening Middle East conflict as Israel and Hamas have yet to come to a ceasefire agreement; Brent Apr trades around 81.75/bbl (81.36-81.84/bbl range).
Horizontal trade across precious metals amid light newsflow and a contained Dollar; XAU dipped back under its 50 DMA (USD 2,033.84/oz) but remains within yesterday’s range (USD 2,020.25-2,038.79/oz).
Mostly softer trade across base metals, in part amid the buoyant Dollar, whilst Chinese markets have also shut for some 10 days amid the Chinese New Year celebrations.
Earnings
PepsiCo Inc (PEP) – Q4 2023 (USD): core EPS 1.78 (exp. 1.72), Revenue 27.9bln (exp. 28.4bln); plans to buyback around USD 1bln in shares. Shares -1.7% in pre-market trade
Expedia Group Inc (EXPE) – Q4 2023 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.72 (exp. 1.68), Revenue 2.89bln (exp. 2.88bln). Negative free cash flow USD 415mln (exp. negative USD 192.6mln). Gross bookings USD 21.67bln (exp. 22.0bln). Announces CEO transition plan with Ariane Gorin to succeed Peter Kern as CEO. (Newswires) Shares -14.1% in pre-market trade
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (TTWO) – Q3 2024 (USD): EPS -0.54, Revenue 1.37bln (exp. 1.34bln); currently working on a significant cost reduction programme across the entire business to maximise margins. Cuts FY24 net bookings view to 5.25-5.3bln (prev. 5.45-5.55bln, exp. 5.48bln). (Newswires) Shares -8.5% in pre-market trade
Hermes (RMS FP) – Q4 (EUR): Revenue 3.36bln (exp. 3.29bln). Sales at constant FX +17.5% (exp. +13.7%). FY recurring operating income 5.65bln (exp. 5.52bln). Proposes exceptional dividend of EUR 10/shr. Q4 Americas revenue +21.6% (exp. 12.1%). Q4 total Europe revenue +18.6% Y/Y. Q4 total Asia revenue +14.8% Y/Y. Confirms guidance. Executive Chairman says the Co. is very confident about the Chinese market; sees no interruptions in US trends (Newswires) Shares +4.5% in European trade
L’Oreal (OR FP) – Q4 2023 (EUR): Sales 10.61bln (exp. 10.89bln), +6.9% (exp. +9.56%). Q4: North Asia comp. sales -6.2%(exp. +7.29%). Europe sales 3.27bln, +11.6%. North America sales 2.84bln, +9.4%. Luxe sales 4.1bln, +0.4% (exp. +4.42%). Consumer product sales 3.7bln, +7.7%. Professional products sales 1.23bln, +6.4%. Dermatological beauty sale 1.5bln, +27.3%. FY23: EPS 12.08 (exp. 13.15), +7.3%. Sales 41.18bln (exp. 44.5bln), +7.3%. Operating margin 19.8%. Op. 8.1bln (exp. 9.08bln, prev. 7.4bln Y/Y). Notes of the stagnating beauty market in China. (FT/Newswires) Shares -5.8% in European trade
Ubisoft (UBI FP) – Q3 2023-24 (EUR): Sales 606mln (exp. 697mln, prev. 773mln), Net Bookings 626mln (prev. 727mln). Q4 Net Bookings seen “sharply up”, leading to a record annual net bookings figure. Reaffirms FY targets. “Moving forward, we’re gearing up for a very promising line-up for fiscal year 2025, including the upcoming release of Star Wars Outlaws’ in 2024″ (Newswires/ Ubisoft) Shares +17.5% in European trade
Geopolitics: Middle East
US President Biden said the conduct of Israel’s response in the Gaza strip has been over the top and he is pushing very hard now to get a sustained pause in Gaza.
White House said negotiations are ongoing regarding a hostage release and ceasefire deal, while it added that Secretary of State Blinken made it clear the US has concerns regarding Rafah operations. The White House also said that President Biden and German Chancellor Scholz will discuss Ukraine, the Middle East and the Red Sea shipping attacks.
US Central Command said its forces conducted seven self-defence strikes against four Houthi unmanned surface vessels on Thursday and conducted strikes against seven mobile anti-cruise missiles that were prepared to launch against ships in the Red Sea.
“Iranian militias move weapons and ammunition from Deir Ezzor to fortified Hezbollah positions on the Syrian-Lebanese border in anticipation of US strikes”, according to Sky News Arabia
Geopolitics: Other
Russian President Putin said Russia has not yet achieved its goals in Ukraine and suggested the US should encourage Ukraine to resume talks, while he was said to sincerely believe that Russia has a historic claim to land in Ukraine. Putin said the US and Russia hold contacts at different levels and that Russia has no interest in Poland, Latvia or anywhere else, as well as noting that WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich may be freed if the special services agree. Furthermore, he said those in power in the West have come to realise it is impossible to inflict strategic defeat on Russia and are wondering what to do next, while he added that they are ready for this dialogue.
US Event Calendar
Revisions: CPI
Central Bank Speakers
13:30: Fed’s Logan Speaks in Moderated Q&A
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
2C ASIA AFFAIRS
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 131,49 PTS OR 0.83% /The Nikkei CLOSED UP 34.14 OR 0.09% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.12% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed D
/OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.2146 /Oil UP TO 76.46 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 81.43/ Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXXXX AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
END
3 CHINA
CHINA/
END
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
EU
EU had enough and gives to the farmers
(zerohedge)
EU Bends The Knee To Farmers: Drops Key Provisions In 2040 Climate Proposal
FRIDAY, FEB 09, 2024 – 04:15 AM
The European Commission has bent the knee to protesting farmers – and is dropping key passages in a proposal for a new 2040 goal aimed at cutting greenhouse gas pollution.
According to the EU exeuctive’s plan, “all sectors” need to now contribute to the effort – but the previously mandated 30% cut to agricultural production between by 2040 is gone. The revised draft has also excluded a mandate for citizens to make lifestyle changes – such as eating less meat, and a push to end fossil fuel subsidies, Politico reports.
Farmers’ protests have broken out in many countries across Europe in recent weeks, with the industry expressing discontent over the EU’s green policies. Some of the largest demonstrations have been in Germany, prompted by a cut to diesel subsidies. Brussels has faced calls from industry groups and some political parties to lay out a 2040 climate pathway that doesn’t ignite further anger.
The EU’s plan is set to be presented on Tuesday and will recommend a 90 percent cut in total EU emissions by 2040 from 1990 levels — a suggestion in line with scientific advice.
The updated version of the plan, which is still subject to change, framed agriculture in a more positive light compared to earlier drafts. The role the sector plays in the EU’s “food sovereignty” was also emphasized.
“We need to make sure we have a balanced approach,” said European Commission Wopke Hoekstra, who unveiled the revised proposal. “The vast majority of our citizens sees the effects of climate change, does want protection, but is also worried about what that implies for their livelihood.”
Meanwhile, the BBC reports that the EU has also scrapped plans to cut pesticide use in half across the EU – which was to take effect by 2030 as part of the so-called “Green Deal.”
The changes were spearheaded by the powerful center-right European People’s Party (EPP), the political family of top EU executive Ursula Von der Leyen, and constitutes the EU Parliament’s largest group.
“Our farmers deserve to be listened to,” said Von der Leyen in a Tuesday meeting of Parliament. “I know that they are worried about the future of agriculture and their future as farmers.”
EPP environmental spokesman Peter Liese said on Monday that the 2040 target for a 90% cut over 1990 levels was conditional on greater emphasis being placed on “positive opportunities” for farmers, and less on “new instruments that rather see the farmers as an enemy of climate policy.”
That said, one EU official told Politico that reality is hard to escape – which is that the agricultural sector ‘could and should’ contribute to the EU’s climate goals.
“Despite all the semantics in the [Commission], there is an unequivocal Impact Assessment making a very compelling (business) case for an ambitious headline target and all sub-targets for sectors,” said the official.
END
5 RUSSIA//UKRAINE AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS/GAZA/RAFAH
Ramps up strikes on Rafah
(Jerusalem Post)
Israel ramps up strikes on Rafah as US warns major offensive would be ‘disaster’
Egypt reiterates concerns Israeli campaign in Gaza’s southernmost city could cause mass Palestinian effort to flee Strip; officer says Hamas forces in Khan Younis largely destroyed
This picture taken from Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, shows smoke rising over buildings in Khan Younis during Israeli bombardment on February 8, 2024, as fighting continues between Israel and the Palestinian terror group Hamas. (Mahmud Hams/AFP)
Israeli forces stepped up airstrikes on Rafah Thursday, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to expand the military offensive into the southernmost Gaza city, where over a million Palestinians have crowded into amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.
The strikes came as Israeli forces continued to operate in Khan Younis, to the north of Rafah, with an officer saying Hamas forces in the city had largely been destroyed even as the terror group’s Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar remained on the loose despite intensive efforts to track him down.
Israeli planes bombed parts of Rafah on Thursday morning, residents said, killing at least 11 people in strikes on two houses, numbers that could not be confirmed. Tanks also shelled some areas in eastern Rafah, intensifying the residents’ fears of an imminent ground assault.
In Washington, the United States issued strident warnings against Israel expanding a large-scale offensive into the city, warning of catastrophic consequences unless civilians sheltering in the city were accounted for.
US State Department deputy spokesman Vedant Patel said the US had “yet to see any evidence of serious planning for such an operation,” adding: “To conduct such an operation right now with no planning and little thought in an area” where one million people are sheltering “would be a disaster.”
The White House issued a similar warning.
“Any major military operation in Rafah at this time, under these circumstances, with more than a million – probably more like a million and a half – Palestinians who are seeking refuge and have been seeking refuge in Rafah without due consideration for their safety would be a disaster, and we would not support it,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters.
Netanyahu said Wednesday he ordered troops to “prepare to operate” in Rafah, after rejecting Hamas’s “bizarre demands” in hostage deal talks. Among Hamas’s conditions were an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and ending the fighting, nonstarters for Israel as they would leave the terror group intact as the enclave’s ruler after the war, which was sparked by the Hamas-led October 7 onslaught.
An Israeli official told The Times of Israel that Jerusalem would not put forward a counter-proposal to Hamas’s “delusional” demands, but rather was seeking to pressure Qatar, via the US, to lean on Hamas to soften its terms.
The US, along with mediators Egypt and Qatar, has continued to push for a hostage release agreement that would be accompanied by a truce, with a Hamas delegation arriving in Cairo for negotiations. Egypt pressured Israel to also send representatives but Jerusalem refused to do so, according to Channel 12 news.
International aid organizations have warned that any major operation in Rafah would compound what they say is already a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza.
Israel says it takes steps to avoid civilian casualties and accuses Hamas terrorists of hiding among civilians, including at school shelters and hospitals, leading to more civilian deaths. Hamas has denied this.
Due to the conflict, more than half of the Strip’s population has fled to Rafah, on the mostly sealed border with Egypt, which is also the main entry point for humanitarian aid. Egypt has warned that any ground operation there or mass displacement across the border would undermine its four-decade-old peace treaty with Israel.
Palestinians walk along a crowded main street in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on February 8, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and the Palestinian terror group Hamas. (Mohammed Abed/AFP)
A spokesperson for Egypt’s foreign ministry said Thursday that Cairo was concerned at the potential for a mass effort by Gazans to escape across the border when the IDF expands operations in Rafah.
In an interview with the Egyptian news channel Al Ghad, Ahmed Abu Zeid said Egypt sees the situation in Gaza’s southern Rafah region as “unbearable and catastrophic.”
“Continuing Israeli strikes on densely populated areas will create an unlivable reality. The scenario of mass displacement is a possibility. The Egyptian position on this has been very clear and straightforward: We are against this policy, and we will not allow it,” he said.
Images in recent weeks circulating on social media have shown Egypt apparently fortifying its defenses at the border, with additional barbed wire and walls.
A shepherd herds sheep near the border fence with Egypt in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip near a makeshift tent camp for displaced Palestinians, on January 24, 2024. (AFP)
According to the Israeli official, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed concern over Israel expanding fighting to the southern Gaza city of Rafah during talks with Netanyahu and the war cabinet a day earlier.
The official stressed that there would be “no compromise” on toppling Hamas militarily and politically, which would mean operating in Rafah.
A second Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Thursday that the operation in Rafah will not be a large-scale assault by a full division like a current operation in Khan Younis, but will instead be organized around targeted pinpoint raids.
Palestinians look at the destruction after an Israeli strike in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, February 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Fatima Shbair)
In Khan Younis, a senior military officer said troops were “peeling back” Hamas’s infrastructure.
The officer told Reuters that the Khan Younis operations to destroy Hamas, and retrieve any hostages who might be held there, would continue “whether it will take two hours, or two days, or two weeks or two months – or even more.”
Israeli troops have killed 2,000 gunmen, wounded 4,000 and captured “hundreds” more, the officer told Reuters on condition of anonymity. That had largely demolished Hamas’s Khan Younis Brigade, whose pre-war strength was five battalions, he said.
This could not be independently verified. Hamas has seldom published its deployments or losses.
“The Khan Younis Brigade was the most powerful that Hamas had, with a very dominant commander,” the officer said. “We are peeling it back, layer by layer.”
Attacks by Palestinian gunmen were increasingly scattershot, suggesting a loss of command and control, the officer said. Hamas says its ambushes continue to inflict Israeli casualties.
A photo released by the IDF on February 7, 2024 shows a major Hamas tunnel captured by Israeli troops in Khan Younis, southern Gaza. (IDF)
Khan Younis is the hometown of Hamas’s Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar, mastermind of the October 7 murder and kidnapping spree in southern Israel that sparked the war.
“I assess beyond a doubt that he is in Khan Younis – along with some of the remaining Hamas leadership,” the officer said.
The Kan public broadcaster reported Thursday that Israeli security officials believe Sinwar has been out of touch with Hamas’s chain of command for a number of weeks and was not involved in the final framework for a hostage deal that Hamas presented to Egypt and Qatar. According to the report, Israel assesses that Sinwar did not receive updates about the framework Israel hammered out in Paris, which was then presented to Hamas negotiators.
The Hamas proposal, which was in response to an outline sent last week by Qatari and Egyptian mediators and backed by the United States and Israel, included a clause that read, “subject to the approval of Hamas leadership in Gaza.”
According to Gallant, among the objects troops discovered were cash-stuffed envelopes sent by Iran, including payments directly to Sinwar.
“There is clear evidence of funds that were transferred, when they arrived and to who they were transferred. And of course, what we see is that Yahya Sinwar takes care of himself first and foremost,” Gallant said while touring a Military Intelligence base.
“Out of millions of dollars, one million goes to [Sinwar]. Out of tens of millions — he puts what he needs into his pocket. Take for example this envelope specially designated to Yahya Sinwar and his family — it contains cash — twenty thousand dollars,” the defense minister charged while holding up the envelope inside a plastic folder.
“Hamas is fighting and conducting terrorism, while Yahya Sinwar is celebrating with his family. This is going to end. Yahya Sinwar turned from the leader of a terrorist organization into a fugitive.”
This handout photo shows Defense Minister Yoav Gallant (C) touring a Military Intelligence base in central Israel on February 8, 2024. (Ariel Hermoni/Defense Ministry)
It is believed that 132 hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7 remain in Gaza — not all of them alive — after 105 civilians were released from Hamas captivity during a weeklong truce in late November. Four hostages were released prior to that, and one was rescued by troops.
The bodies of eight hostages have also been recovered and three hostages were mistakenly killed by the military. Hamas is also holding two Israeli civilians, Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, who are both thought to be alive after entering the Strip of their own accord in 2014 and 2015, respectively, along with the bodies of fallen IDF soldiers Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin, killed in 2014.
The Israel Defense Forces confirmed Monday that at least 31 of the hostages held in Gaza are no longer alive, including Shaul and Goldin. The New York Times said another 20 are also feared dead, but the IDF did not confirm this.
Israel launched its punishing campaign against Hamas after the terror group led an unprecedented assault into southern Israel on October 7, killing some 1,200 people in Israel, most of them civilians, and kidnapping 253 to Gaza, while committing brutal atrocities including mass sexual violence.
More than 27,800 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run health ministry. These figures cannot be independently verified, are believed to include fatalities caused by failed rocket fire by Gaza terror groups, and do not distinguish between civilians and combatants. Israel says it has killed 10,000 Hamas gunmen in Gaza, as well as 1,000 terrorists in Israel on October 7.
Lazar Berman contributed to this report.
end
ISRAEL/HAMAS/EGYPT
Egypt concerned that Gazans may storm the border if IDF widens Rafah operation
A shepherd herds sheep near the border fence with Egypt in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip near a makeshift tent camp for displaced Palestinians, on January 24, 2024 (AFP)
A spokesperson for Egypt’s foreign ministry says Cairo is concerned at the potential for a mass effort by Gazans to escape across the border when the Israel Defense Forces expands its operations in Rafah, Channel 12 reports.
Images in recent weeks circulating on social media have shown Egypt apparently fortifying its defenses at the border, with additional barbed wire and walls.
More than half of Gaza’s 2.3 million people are sheltering in the Rafah area, amid a spiraling humanitarian crisis.
Israel is continuing to hunt Hamas’s leadership in the southern Strip, believed to be hiding deep within the vast tunnel network the terror group dug under the Strip, which military officials assess runs for hundreds of miles.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant vowed last week that the Israeli military will reach and dismantle Hamas’s Rafah Brigade, just as it is currently working to do to Hamas’s battalions in the Khan Younis area.
War erupted between Israel and Hamas with the terror group’s October 7 massacre. Some 3,000 Hamas-led terrorists slaughtered 1,200 people in southern Israel that day — most of them civilians, massacred amid brutal atrocities — and seized 253 hostages.
Vowing to destroy the terror group, Israel launched a wide-scale military campaign in Gaza.
Agencies contributed to this report.
end
ISRAEL/HAMAS//
(Jerusalem Post0
The son of Hamas knows best – editorial
The government’s decision to bring The Green Prince on board to explain the true colors of Hamas is an intelligent step in the right direction.
Wednesday’s announcement that Museb Hassan Yousef, known as The Green Prince, is joining Israel’s National Public Diplomacy campaign is a welcome development. It’s a fine example of diplomatic creativity, innovation, and thinking outside the box – something we’ve all yearned for.
“This week, Israel’s public diplomacy efforts received a significant boost: The Green Prince, Museb Hassan Yousef, arrived for an interview with the prime minister’s Arabic Media spokesperson, Ofir Gendelman, and toured the areas of the October 7 massacre in the Western Negev,” the Government Press Office said in a statement.
“The Green Prince, together with IDF Arabic Spokesperson Lt.-Col. Avichay Adraee, also toured the Western Negev and visited the kibbutzim that were attacked during the October 7 massacre, as well as the area of the party at Re’im.”
The GPO published a link to the interview, which is being broadcast and promoted globally – especially to the Arab world – on digital platforms.
In the interview, conducted in the National Public Diplomacy studio, Yousef talks about his childhood in Ramallah, as the son of Hamas co-founder Sheikh Hassan Yousef, and his studies at a UNRWA high school, where he was educated to hate.
THERE IS no expectation for Hamas to take action regarding the life of Palestinians in Jerusalem (credit: MOHAMMED SALEM/REUTERS)
• Referring to Hamas’s exploitation of UNRWA institutions to sow hate, he said, “In the mosques, the schools, the streets, and at home, everywhere you go, there is hatred of Israel and of the Jewish people.”Advertisement
• Referring to the Hamas Covenant, which calls for the killing of Jews, he said, “The people that wrote the Hamas Covenant are a bunch of lunatics.”
• Referring to what is happening in the Arab world today, he said, “The Arab world needs to pay attention to the dangers within; Hamas does not care about people. In effect, they are sacrificing the lives of children and non-combatants to achieve cheap political goals.”
• In conclusion, he said, “The concept of jihad must be stopped, and it must be stopped now.”
Yousef, 45, became well-known in 2010 when he published his autobiography, Son of Hamas: A Gripping Account of Terror, Betrayal, Political Intrigue, and Unthinkable Choices, written with Ron Brackin. A video of his eloquent address in English to The Jerusalem Post Conference in New York in 2016, in which he told his fascinating story of defecting from Hamas and becoming a Christian supporter of Israel, went viral on social media.
How Yousef left Hamas
After becoming involved in Hamas activities as a youth, Yousef was viewed as a successor to his father. However, while serving a jail sentence in Megiddo Prison, he began to question Hamas’s ideology and tactics. Eventually, he became known as The Green Prince (the title of a 2014 documentary) for serving as a reliable source for the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) for over a decade.
In media briefings and video messages in November, Yousef called on Israel to set a time limit for Hamas to release the remaining 136 Israeli hostages and, if they don’t, to kill his father and other senior Hamas leaders. “Hamas must have a time frame – a month, two months, or six months – to return the hostages, and if they don’t return the hostages within the time frame, Israel must execute top Hamas leaders in prison, especially the mass murderers,” he said. “When I say execute top Hamas leaders, I mean no exceptions. That includes my father, the co-founder of the Hamas movement.”
Yousef warned that Hamas was dragging out negotiations on purpose. “Hamas is going nowhere, and if we continue to negotiate with them, they will continue stretching these negotiations, taking us into a rabbit hole that will never end. And this is their goal: to get away with their crimes. We cannot allow this to happen,” he said.
October 7 proved that Hamas had reached the “peak of their evil,” he continued. “If we don’t eradicate them, if we validate them, if we give them power or legitimacy, we are in real trouble.”
Israel and the world should listen carefully to Yousef, a man with integrity who knows what he’s talking about. A charismatic personality with whom Israel and the international community can engage, he might even be a possible candidate to lead a new, post-Hamas Gaza Strip. The government’s decision to bring The Green Prince on board to explain the true colors of Hamas is an intelligent step in the right direction. May other courageous Palestinians follow Yousef’s lead.
end
Great leader the USA has got:
ISRAEL/HAMAS/USA
Biden calls Israel’s response in Gaza to October 7 Hamas attack ‘over the top’
Israel’s military response in the Gaza Strip to the shock October 7 attack by Hamas has been “over the top,” US President Joe Biden says.
“I’m of the view, as you know, that the conduct of the response in Gaza, in the Gaza Strip, has been over the top,” he tells reporters at the White House during an evening address that was announced only about two hours earlier.
The president adds that he’s “pushing very hard now” to get a sustained pause in fighting that could also free the remaining hostages in Gaza abducted from Israel on October 7.
“I’m pushing very hard now to deal with this hostage ceasefire,” Biden says. “There are a lot of innocent people who are starving, a lot of innocent people who are in trouble and dying, and it’s gotta stop.”
The remarks, some of Biden’s sharpest public criticism to date of the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, come as the Democratic president has come under increasing domestic pressure to press Israel on a ceasefire.
The White House did not respond to a request to elaborate on Biden’s remarks.
end
then this:
how on earth can they capture the Hamas criminals?
US Warns Against Impending Israeli Assault On Refugee-Packed Rafah
THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 08:45 PM
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he has voiced “concerns” to Prime Minister Netanyahu regarding the Israeli Defense Forces’ (IDF) impending ground operation against the far southern city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip.
Hundreds of thousands of civilian refugees have until this point sought out the greater ‘safety’ of Rafah. But Al Jazeera observes that “Panic is growing in Rafah over an imminent ground invasion after Israel’s prime minister ordered his military to prepare to enter the city in the southern Gaza Strip that is sheltering 1.2 million people with nowhere else to go as he rejected Hamas’s truce plan and rebuffed US efforts to reach a deal.”
Initially almost the entire population of the northern half of the Strip moved south to the Khan Younis area, but after in past weeks it came under massive assault – as the IDF has sought to root out Hamas’ command structure from there – throngs of Palestinian refugees were forced further south, to the border with Egypt.
According to Axios, “Blinken also expressed concerns about the failures of communication between the IDF and international organizations and insufficient deconfliction, which led to the targeting of UN personnel who were delivering aid, the sources said.”
The report further indicates Blinken communicated the following to the Israelis:
The U.S. is concerned that an Israeli Defense Forces operation in the city without evacuating the civilian population to safe areas will lead to mass casualties.
It also fears that such an operation will push tens of thousands of Palestinians into Egypt. The Egyptian government has already warned the displacement of Palestinians to Egypt would lead to a rupture in its relations with Israel.
Of course, Israel has accused some of these organizations, especially the largest – the UNRWA – of being compromised by Hamas members and alleged associations with terrorists.
The White House on Thursday also issued statements saying truce negotiations are still “ongoing” – but the reality is that PM Netanyahu fully rejected the “delusional” Hamas demands, in particular the condition that Israeli troops must first completely withdraw from the Gaza Strip.
Both sides are still offering the other ‘non-starters’ which means the process in reality hasn’t gone anywhere. And from Hamas’ perspective, Israel is now only widening the war by bringing it to Rafah. According to the latest words of Netanyahu via the NY Times:
Israel’s prime minister said the military would soon go intoto an area of Gaza near the border with Egypt where hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians have fled, something the United Nations has said would be catastrophic.
Gazan health officials say that more than 27,000 people — many of them women and children — have been killed in Israel’s bombardment and ground assault of Gaza since the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday that Israeli troops had been directed to deploy in Rafah, near the southern border, and in camps in central Gaza, calling the areas “Hamas’s last remaining strongholds.”
Below: Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council…
An Israeli ground offensive on overcrowded Rafah in #Gaza would be a bloodbath, and a stain on both Israel and those nations providing arms. We need an immediate ceasefire to reach the women, children, families who are at breaking point, with lifesaving aid.
The United Nations is still pressing for urgent ceasefire. “It is time for an immediate humanitarian cease-fire, and the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages,” UN Secretary General António Guterres said.
Jens Laerke, a spokesman for the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, warned against a Rafah assault: “We can make clear what the law says. Under international humanitarian law, indiscriminate bombing of densely populated areas may amount to war crimes,” he told reporters in Geneva.
end
ISRAEL HAMAS
right wing protesters block aid from entering Gaza through the Israeli side Kerem Shalom crossing
(zerohedge)
IDF preventing aid from entering Gaza via Kerem Shalom Crossing – report
The IDF prevented the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza via the Kerem Shalom Crossing earlier today after a directive was issued following a situational assessment, Channel 12 reports.
In recent days, a right-wing protest group known as Tzav 9 has been preventing aid from entering the Gaza Strip, but the group was not at Kerem Shalom on Friday, so aid should have been able to enter the Strip without issue.
The report does not say why the decision to stop aid from passing through Kerem Shalom was made and who issued the directive.
COGAT, Israel’s military liaison to the Palestinians, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS/THIS MORNING
Israel will be heading into Rafah
(Jerusalem Post)
Netanyahu orders plan for evacuation and military action in Gaza’s Rafah
It is impossible to achieve the goal of the war without eliminating Hamas, and by leaving four Hamas battalions in Rafah,” the Prime Minister’s Office stated..
The Prime Minister’s Office: It is impossible to achieve the goal of the war without eliminating Hamas, and by leaving four Hamas battalions in Rafah. On the contrary, it is clear that intense activity in Rafah requires that civilians evacuate the areas of combat.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has directed the IDF and the defense establishment to bring to the war cabinet a plan for both the evacuation of civilians in the south Gaza city of Rafah and the neutralization of the four Hamas battalions therein, the Prime Minister’s Office stated on Friday.
“Therefore,” the statement continued, “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the IDF and the security establishment to submit to the Cabinet a combined plan for evacuating the population and destroying the battalions.”
Hamas cannot be defeated with four battalions remaining in Rafah
It is impossible to achieve the goal of the war without eliminating Hamas, and by leaving four Hamas battalions in Rafah,” the statement noted. “On the contrary, it is clear that intense activity in Rafah requires that civilians evacuate the areas of combat.”
The Prime Minister’s Office: It is impossible to achieve the goal of the war without eliminating Hamas, and by leaving four Hamas battalions in Rafah. On the contrary, it is clear that intense activity in Rafah requires that civilians evacuate the areas of combat.
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end
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON
Hezbollah fires 30 rockets at Upper Galilee town in response to deadly IDF drone strike
The scene of a strike on a vehicle in the city of Nabatieh in southern Lebanon on February 8, 2024. (Screen capture/Telegram)
Hezbollah issues a statement taking responsibility for the barrage of dozens of rockets fired at the Upper Galilee earlier tonight, saying it was “in retaliation for the Zionist aggression…on Nabatieh.”
Earlier today, the IDF carried out a drone strike in the southern Lebanese towns in which two Hezbollah operatives were killed.
The Hezbollah statement claims that its barrages targeted an IDF base in Ein Zeitim after it targeted an air traffic control military base in Meron earlier tonight.
Footage of an IDF airstrike against Hezbollah sites in Lebanon on February 9, 2024. (Screen capture/X)
The IDF says fighter jets carried out strikes against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon a short while ago, including a complex where the terror group’s operatives were gathered in Maroun al-Ras.
The IDF says it also hit three more buildings used by Hezbollah in Yohmor and Naqoura.
Several projectiles were also fired from Lebanon in the last few hours, at Menara, Mount Dov and Malkia. The IDF says it is shelling the launch sites with artillery.
מטוסי קרב תקפו לפני זמן קצר אתר צבאי בו פעלו מחבלי חיזבאללה במרחב מרון א-ראס ושלושה מבנים צבאיים של הארגון במרחב הכפרים יחמר וא-נקורה שבדרום לבנון. כמו כן, צה”ל תקף במהלך היום בארטילריה ובמרגמות במספר מרחבים בדרום לבנון ואמש מטוסי קרב תקפו תשתית טרור נוספת במרחב מיס אל-ג’בל>>
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END
LEBANON/ISRAEL
IDF says it struck launcher used in latest Hezbollah barrage at Galilee
Footage of an IDF airstrike against Hezbollah sites in Lebanon on February 9, 2024. (Screen capture/X)
The IDF says it struck a launcher used in the Hezbollah rocket barrage from Lebanon on northern Israel.
Dozens of rockets were launched in the attack. The IDF says many of them were intercepted by the Iron Dome air defense system
There are no injuries in the attack, which Hezbollah says was aimed at the IDF’s Kela base.
The IDF says sirens sounded in Kiryat Shmona and nearby communities due to fears of shrapnel from the interceptions falling in the area.
Sirens were also activated on the Home Front Command mobile app in additional areas, the IDF says, apparently referring to the Kela base.
The IDF says it identified one of the rocket launchers in the south Lebanon village of Qalaat Debba and struck it.
Fighter jets also hit another Hezbollah building in Khiam, the IDF adds
ISRAEL/WEST BANK
END
SYRIA/ISRAEL
Rare daytime strike into Syria’s capital Damascus
(Jerusalem Post)
Rare daytime strikes target Syrian military airport near Damascus – report
The strikes come just days after alleged Israeli airstrikes targeted sites in Homs in central Syria.
By TZVI JOFFREFEBRUARY 9, 2024 13:27Updated: FEBRUARY 9, 2024 14:04
An F-35 Adir from the 140th squadron takes part in an Israeli air force air show during the graduation ceremony for soldiers who have completed the IAF Flight Course, at the Hatzerim Air Base in the Negev desert, June 29, 2023.(photo credit: OFER ZIDON/FLASH90)
عاجل غارات جوية إسرائيلية استهدفت مطار المزة العسكري #إسرائيل#سوريا
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Syrian air defenses were activated after alleged Israeli airstrikes were launched towards targets in the Damascus area on Friday afternoon, according to initial reports by Syrian media.
Initial reports indicated that the Mezzeh Military Airport was targeted in the strikes.
The strikes come just days after alleged Israeli airstrikes targeted sites in Homs in central Syria.
In the strikes in Homs, several people were killed when a missile hit a building in the city, although it remained unclear if the missile in question was an Israeli missile or a Syrian air defense missile as Syrian air defense missiles have fallen short and caused casualties in the past.
People gather near the damaged site, that was hit by an Israeli military strike according to sources, in Damascus, Syria January 20, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/FIRAS MAKDESI)
According to the Alma Research & Education Center, satellite imagery and photos from on the ground indicated that a logistics complex with warehouses and a parking lot for vehicles was hit amid the airstrikes in the Homs area. The site in question sits on a highway connecting Homs to Deir Ezzor in eastern Syria, a central area for Iranian militias.
IRGC member killed in last airstrike in Damascus area
The strikes also come exactly a week after a member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was killed in alleged Israeli airstrikes targeting a site south of Damascus.
The Iranian Entekhab news site identified the killed IRGC member as Saeed Alidadi. The strikes targeted Aqraba, south of Damascus, according to Nour Abo Hassan, a journalist in southern Syria.
END
USA/IRAQ/IRANIAN BACKED MILITIA
Iraq Closer To Expelling US Troops After Drone Strike In Busy Neighborhood
THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 06:45 PM
The fallout continues in the wake of the Pentagon’s assassination by drone strike of at least one or more Kataib Hezbollah leaders in a crowded east Baghdad neighborhood Wednesday night.
Iraq’s government on Thursday condemned the violation of the country’s sovereignty, and warned it brings political leadership a big step closer to kicking American troops out of Iraq altogether.
Iraq’s military commander-in-chief condemned the “blatant assassination” of an Iranian-backed militia leader “in the heart of a residential neighborhood” in Baghdad, which could have killed many bystanders.The statement underscored that the US has shown “no regard for civilian lives or international laws.”
“By this act, the American forces jeopardize civil peace, violate Iraqi sovereignty, and disregard the safety and lives of our citizens,” the Iraqi military statement said.
There were large overnight protests outside the ‘Green Zone’ where the US Embassy is located in Baghdad. These protests will likely persist in the coming days and could grow violent, as has happened in recent years.
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) statement which was issued within hours after the drone strike on the SUV claimed there were no civilian casualties:
There are no indications of collateral damage or civilian casualties at this time. The United States will continue to take necessary action to protect our people.
Still, the Pentagon is expected to mount more targeted attacks pm senior Iranian-backed militia commanders in the wake of last month’s drone strike on a US base along the Jordan-Syria border, which killed three US Army soldiers.
Currently, some 2,500 US troops remain in Iraq, ostensibly still there as part of a ‘counter-ISIS’ mission, though ISIS terrorists have long been driven underground. Likely there are many thousands more US contractors and security operators throughout the country, and especially in the north in Erbil.
The Iraqi military statement concluded by calling out the ambiguous “mission” and changing rationale for US troops remaining in the country. It said that “even more concerning is that the coalition consistently deviates from the reasons and objectives for its presence on our territory.”
#BREAKING Drone airstrike targeted a vehicle in Mashtal neighborhood, eastern Baghdad.
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One of the real reasons US troops are still in Iraq is to provide support for the occupation of Syria across the border.
American outposts on the Iraqi side assists with logistics and staging, and also has come under accusations of supporting the ‘oil theft’ happening in the Deir Ezzor region. In some cases tanker trucks have been seen crossing into Iraq from Syria, laden with Syrian oil.
A US drone roves the skies of Baghdad as a funeral for Kataib Hezbollah’s senior commander Wissam AlSaedi aka Abou Baqer is held.
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END
HOUTHIS/THE WEST
it is about time, that they nuke these stupid fools
(zerohedge)
Houthis Upping Explosive Drone Boat Swarms, Latest US Navy Intercept Shows
FRIDAY, FEB 09, 2024 – 01:25 PM
Despite what have been at this point dozens of waves of US coalition airstrikes on Yemen, the Houthis are still vowing to eradicate the Red Sea of all hostile foreign ships – meaning Western, Israeli, and their allies’ commercial vessels and warships. Prior Houthi statements indicate Russian and Chinese vessels are being given a pass.
The Houthis on Friday have once again demonstrated their defiance, sending an unusually high number of of drone boats against Red Sea vessels, according to a US military statement. This follows days ago a pair of drone boats being destroyed by US missiles.
Since last year, the Houthis have primarily relied upon drones and ballistic missiles, with explosive-laden drone boats making an occasional appearance, but now it appears these ‘suicide boats’ are seeing greater us. According to The Associated Press:
The U.S. military conducted new airstrikes targeting Yemen’s Houthi rebels, officials said Friday.
American forces destroyed four explosive-loaded drone boats and seven mobile anti-ship cruise missile launchers Thursday that could target vessels in the Red Sea, the U.S. military’s Central Command said.
“They presented an imminent threat to U.S. Navy ships and merchant vessels in the region,” Central Command said. “These actions will protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for U.S. Navy and merchant vessels.”
The US statement leaves it somewhat ambiguous whether the drone boats were actively engaged in an operation near commercial ships at the time they were destroyed.
Earlier this week US intelligence presented what it says is new intelligence confirming that the Houthis’ increasingly sophisticated arsenal is being supplied by the Iranians.
“Analysis confirms that Houthi forces have employed various Iranian-origin missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles against military and civilian targets throughout the region,” the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) said in a statement, and underscored a tighter relationship developing.
“Since 2014, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force [IRGC-QF] has provided the Houthis a growing arsenal of sophisticated weapons and training,” the DIA continued. “Iran’s aid has enabled the Houthis to conduct a campaign of missile and UAV attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea since November 2023.”
Germany is the latest Western ally to send an additional frigate to join the coalition in the Red Sea:
Like Iran-aligned militia attacks on US bases across Iraq and Syria, the Houthi operations are becoming commonplace and almost daily, to the point that the incidents are largely falling from breaking headlines. What remains clear is that the US-led Operation Coalition Guardian has failed to protect Red Sea shipping, also given almost all major global tanker companies have halted passage through the vital waterway, opting instead to take the longer and more expensive route around the Cape of Good Hope.
Kagan, Jackson seemed to share the doubts of the conservative majority as to this latest “liberal” effort to condemn both Trump and those Americans who’d vote for him to “civil death”
Regardless of your take on Trump, or anybody else’s, the Court was somehow overtaken by lucidity—a rare thing in Year 4 of the “COVID crisis.”
Compilation by blueplanet68:
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Jonathan Turley: “This was a bloodbath for Democrats”:
The argument is now over. The disqualification advocates may have expected a cold reception, but this was perfectly glacial. Notably, some of the toughest and most skeptical questions came from the left of the Court.
…Murray is finally done. That was rough. He took more arrows than Saint Sebastian and they were coming from both the left and the right of the court. Shannon Stevenson is now up.
🚨𝗕𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚 – Even the liberal justice, Ketanji Brown Jackson, nominated by Joe Biden, sees how ridiculous the argument to keep Donald Trump off of state ballots using the 14th amendment is.🔥
The most devastating part is the number of people who NEVER ever questioned the FRAUD narrative. The level of exasperation having to endure a monumental load of BS over the last 4 years; 4 YEARS!!
Dr. Peter McCullough Warns of ‘One-World Government Coming Our Way’ “The next pandemic is not a matter of if but of when,” says WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. Klaus Schwab, the WEF, and the so-called global elites gathered for a 5-day annual meeting in Davos from January 15-19. One of the topics on their agenda that raised some eyeballs was “Preparing for Disease X…
Goal was as EUA given, the same day vaccine would be distributed, they were already in storage and trucks as produced each day…. the idea was most would be destroyed. those that failed. . Subscribed
but it was foregone conclusion.
Issue is whether it worked or not, FDA used the EUA as a political football, FDA told me, they will NOT grant Trump EUA before election so that he does not get a win…even if Trump knew what was going on, and even if the vaccine was needed which it was not and the Malone Bourla vaccine was deadly, even so, FDA was never giving him EAU before election and they had results and refused…also, they moved the goalpost, were never interested in safety, just to deny Trump victory… my office was on 6th floor of HHS, OWS was on 7th…even if it worked, even if this was a real pandemic which it was not, even if Americans needed a working vaccine, FDA denied Trump the EUA before elections for political reasons…they could have given EUA before elections but FDA official told me confidentially that the decision was made up top FDA to not give him EUA…no victory for him…I know, I was there, was told direct to me. and yes, OWS was 100% a military operation, 100% military…FDA, CDC, NIH etc. was a front. Military ran 100%, I know, I was there. but no one ask me on this for as they said, I sucked the oxygen out of Malone et al. so don’t interview him… in the end, the American people lost for Malone, Weissman, Bourla, Bancel et al. brought something that killed. If courts and tribunals try these people and find them guilty of causing death, if courts, not you or I, I say hang them all! We do need Nuremberg 2.0 where doctors, scientists etc. dangle from rope once courts and judges rule such.
Canada Moves to Begin Jailing ‘Net Zero’ CriticsGlobalist lawmakers in Canada are pushing a disturbing new piece of legislation that seeks to jail members of the public who question the “Net Zero” agenda of the unelected World Economic Forum (WEF).READ MORE
Bill C-372 seeks penalties up to $1,000,000 and two years in prison for promoting fossil fuels as anything less than an existential threat to humanity.
Just when you thought Canada couldn’t get any more Stalinist, an MP from the country’s far-left NDP party is calling for any speech that “promotes fossil fuels” – even truthful statements like comparing the relative emissions of natural gas to coal – to be banned and criminalized.
MP Charlie Angus, from Timmins, in northern Ontario (where the average temperature in February runs -7C to -21C) has introduced a private member’s Bill C-372 called “The Fossil Fuels Advertising Act” that would “prohibit the promotion of fossil fuels except in accordance with the provisions of the Act.”
Promotion defined as:
“a representation about a product or service by any means, whether directly or indirectly, including any communication of information about the product or service and its price and distribution, that is likely to influence and shape attitudes, beliefs and behaviours about the product or service.”
That which is not expressly permitted is forbidden…
“This enactment enacts the Fossil Fuel Advertising Act to prohibit the promotion of fossil fuels except in accordance with the provisions of the Act.“
The only public discourse that would be permitted on the matter would be literary or dramatic representations that “use or depict” fossil fuels, or “opinion or commentary” provided that in either case, the author or creator has no ties or recieves no consideration “directly or indirectly” from the fossil fuel industry.
The preamble calls climate change an “existential threat” and cites the 2023 forest fire season as a pretext.
“Whereas, in 2023, Canada experienced the worst wildfire season ever recorded as the country exceeded the largest area ever burned in a year, totaling more than 7.9 million hectares”
There is no mention that in multiple cases of throughout the 2023 forest fire season, such as the Lake Cavan fires in Quebec and the infamous Lake Barrington Fire in Nova Scotia, the cause was arson, (not “global boiling”).
“Claimed, without evidence…”
The phrase “claimed without evidence” has become a staple of the corporate media. It belies a baked-in partisanship reminiscent of late Soviet Era agitprop. This is especially noticeable if anybody to the right of Stalin dares question any precepts of technocratic socialism.
Yet Bill C-372 is replete with such claims…
Whereas air pollution caused by fossil fuels leads to millions of premature deaths globally, including tens of thousands of premature deaths in Canada alone, and is a major cause of cancer, respiratory illness, adverse pregnancy outcomes, children’s diseases and cardiovascular symptoms;
This is a faith-based statement (on par with Al Gore’s unhinged shrieking at Davos 2023 that “Climate change causes the equivalent of 600,000 Hiroshima class bombs per day!”). It also runs contrary to quantifiable data from multiple sources and studies showing that climate related fatalities have been in free-fall for over a century.
It is also settled science that more humans die every year from extreme cold than do heat or warming effects by a factor of 2-to-1.
Bill C-372 further asserts, without evidence (am I doing this right?), that
“fossil fuel production and consumption has resulted in a national public health crisis of substantial and pressing concern, in a way that is similar to the public health crisis caused by tobacco consumption;”
By Statistics Canada’s own measure, tobacco still kills 48,000 Canadians every year. This bill is claiming that every day, an equivalent 131 Canadians are dropping dead because of fossil fuel induced climate change. If true, why not cut the total problem of climate and tobacco related deaths in half by simply banning smoking outright?
There’s only one problem: Free Speech
“Parliament is of the opinion that fossil fuel advertising currently deploys techniques which knowingly mislead the public and fail to disclose the health and environmental harms associated with their use, impeding informed consumer decision-making, undermining public support for effective climate action”
By “impeding informed decision-making” on the part of Canadians he probably means any criticisms of inexorably higher carbon taxes (which get unfairly applied according to the whims of political favouritism anyway) or drawing attention to ridiculous, symbolic, non-solutions like wind turbines, or forcing Canadians pay for expensive heat pumps in sub-zero climes.
Further, the companies and scientists gainfully employed by Canada’s energy industry, which is responsible for 7.5% of Canada’s entire GDP (with 75% of that in Alberta), aren’t allowed to defend their industry or their livelihoods from the onslaught of junk science and ideological fanaticism, or to counter it with measured, rational, science-based counter-factuals.
While Bill C-372 asserts that “the protection of the environment is a valid use of the federal criminal law power”. It would be a stretch to apply provisions of The Environmental Protection Act to the normal course operations of the energy industry, let alone free speech. There is no mention of it in the Canadian Constitution, nor the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
Section 2(a) of the latter declares as a fundamental right of all Canadians “freedom of conscience and religion” (although nobody seemed to have this right when it was time to refuse the Covid jabs).
And, of course, 2(b) “freedom of thought, belief, opinion and expression, including freedom of the press and other media of communication”
Like it or not, communication includes promotion, defending oneself, and taking a firm, defensible stance that we have a moral duty to provide abundant power to society through the practical, judicious use of cleaner fossil fuels.
That said, the Canadian government (to which the NDP are the junior partner in a governing Liberal-Socialist coalition), has no compunctions around trammelling Canadians’ constitutional rights.
A federal judge recently ruled that the Trudeau government’s invocation of The Emergencies Act, that saw Canadians’ bank accounts seized along with the violent suppression of the #FreedomConvoy protest, was both illegal and unconstitutional (the Federal government intends to appeal the ruling).
Realistically, C-372 has about as much chance of passing as a Liz Warren bill, but the NDP’s do prop up Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party in a slim minority ruling coalition – they could, in theory, jam it through.
After that, it would be illegal for me to observe that the people of Timmins, Ontario, Charlie Angus’ home riding, would not survive a single winter without fossil fuels (and since I hold shares of Imperial Oil and Canadian Natural Resources, it might be construed as “benefiting from the proceeds of climate extermination”, or something).
The fact that this bill was even entered into the Parliamentary register is testament to how out-of-touch the ruling Liberal-Socialist coalition is.
I leave you with this clip of Federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, shrieking “climate change is real”, like a total nutcase in Canada’s House of Commons…
Canadians loathe the carbon tax, and as I’ve been documenting month-after-month in the “Get Woke, Go Broke” section of The Bitcoin Capitalist, the public is done with the ESG narrative and climate hysteria. It’s over.
The later the politicians figure this out, the better – because this is the one area where I am an unabashed accelerationist. Keep at it Charlie! You go Guilbeault!
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 7;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0767 DOWN .0010
USA/ YEN 149.46 UP 0.200 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2607 DOWN .0014
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3452 DOWN .0008 (CDN DOLLAR UP 8 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 131.49 PTS OR 0.83%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.12% // EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG DOWN 131,49 PTS OR 0.83%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.12%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 34.14 OR 0.09%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2030.35
silver:$22.62
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 104.09 UP 5 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2173)
TURKISH LIRA: 30.69 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.716…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.1880% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.375 DOWN 1 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.482 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2021.15
SILVER AT 11;30: 22.36
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 22.90 PTS OR 0.30%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 37.33 PTS OR 0.22%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 18.11 PTS OR 0.24%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 8.80 PTS OR 0.09%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 91.91 PTS OR 0.30%
WTI Oil price 73.51 12: EST
Brent Oil: 81.70 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 91.07; ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 22//100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3770 UP 2 BASIS PTS
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.125 UP 3 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA: 1.0787 UP .0009 OR 9 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2633 UP .0012 or 12 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.102 UP 1 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.725%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.28 UP 0.11//YEN DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3461 UP .0009 CDN dollar DOWN 9 basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 76.50
Brent OIL: 81.84
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS pts to 4.183%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS PTS to 4.375%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 3 PTS AT 4.488%
USA dollar index: 103.94 DOWEN 9 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 30.67 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 90.90 DOWN 0 AND 5/100 roubles
GOLD 2024.90 3:30 PM
SILVER: 22.60 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 54.64 PTS OR 0.14%
NASDAQ UP 179.24 PTS OR 1.01%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.94 UP .015 PTS OR 1.17%
GLD: $187,66 DOWN 0.73 OR 0.39%
SLV/ $20.68 UP .03 OR 0.15%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Bitcoin Blasts Off As ‘Euphoric’ Stocks Do Something They Haven’t Done In 52 Years…
B
FRIDAY, FEB 09, 2024 – 04:00 PM
The S&P 500 closed above 5,000 for the first time ever…
…only 39 more green candles to go until the election…
Source: Bloomberg
The S&P 500 jumped 5,000 faster than any other 1,000-point milestone (which of course makes some sense given that they are smaller and smaller percentage changes).
It took 719 sessions for the index to set its latest 1,000-point milestone, much shorter than the 1,227 trading days it needed to get from 2,000 in 2014 to 3,000 in 2019, Bloomberg News reports.
That compares to the 4,168 sessions from 1,000 in 1998 to 2,000 in 2014.
However, as Bloomberg notes, it may take time for the index to settle above 5,000, if history is any guide.
For example, after breaching 2,000 in 2014, the SPX hovered around that level for the next three weeks, only to retreat in the five weeks that followed.
A similar trend can be observed in 2019, when the index crossed 3,000. After rising more, the SPX fell and hovered below it for many weeks after.
…and the S&P 500 is up for 14 of the last 15 weeks for the first time since March 1972…
But, while the S&P 500 is now up 4% from its prior record closing high in Jan 2022, so is Bitcoin; and the dollar is up 8%… and gold up over 12%. The loser in those two years are bonds which are down over 9%…
Source: Bloomberg
Small Caps were the biggest winners this week – amid a constant short-squeeze – followed by Nasdaq (and the S&P), while The Dow ended the week unchanged….
‘Most Shorted’ stocks ripped higher this week, up over 6% (biggest squeeze in two months)…
Source: Bloomberg
Regional Bank shares ended the week lower, but well of the mid-week lows…
Source: Bloomberg
MAG7 stocks soared for the 5th straight week…
Source: Bloomberg
NVDA just kept on doing what it does…
Source: Bloomberg
…with its market now approaching that of AMZN and GOOGL…
Aggregate household debt balances increased by $212 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023, a 1.2% rise from 2023Q3. Balances now stand at $17.50 trillion and have increased by $3.4 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession.
Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports increased by $112 billion during the fourth quarter of 2023 and stood at $12.25 trillion at the end of December.
Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) increased by $11 billion, the seventh consecutive quarterly increase after 2022Q1, and there is now $360 billion in aggregate outstanding balances.
Credit card balances, which are now at $1.13 trillion outstanding, increased by $50 billion (4.6%).
Auto loan balances increased by $12 billion, continuing the upward trajectory that has been in place since 2020Q2, and now stand at $1.61 trillion.
Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, grew by $25 billion. Student loan balances were effectively flat, with a $2 billion increase and stand at $1.6 trillion. In total, non-housing balances grew by $89 billion.
Record High Credit Card Debt
Credit card debt rose to a new record high of $1.13 trillion, up $50 billion in the quarter. Even more troubling is the surge in serious delinquencies, defined as 90 days or more past due.
For nearly all age groups, serious delinquencies are the highest since 2011 at best.
Auto Loan Delinquencies
Serious delinquencies on auto loans have jumped from under 3 percent in mid-2021 to to 5 percent at the end of 2023 for age group 18-29.
Age group 30-39 is also troubling. Serious delinquencies for age groups 18-29 and 30-39 are at the highest levels since 2010.
Mortgage Loans
Unlike the Great Recession, mortgages are not a serious issue.
Everyone who could refinance did refinance and often at rates near 3.0 percent. After refinancing, monthly payments dropped. Finally, rising prices put risk of foreclosure very low for all but recent buyers who stretched too far to buy a house.
Yet, here again we see a small uptick across the board but especially noticeable for age group 18-29. But this will not be a replay of the Great Recession mortgage bust.
Economists are and writers are still struggling with what seems obvious if one bothers looking beyond the headline numbers.
Jobs increased but employment is stagnant. People are taking on multiple jobs or coming out of retirement to take part time jobs because they are struggling to make ends meet.
Sudden Stop
Writers and analysts cannot see the picture, especially left wing rags listening to Biden about how lovely this economy is. Polls show the real score. So do the above charts.
I now expect a sudden stop that is going to hit the Fed in the face like a ton of bricks. But which way?
I am open to the idea of a deflationary bust or a stagflation mess. The former will have the Fed cutting rates, the latter would be an extreme world of hurt with the Fed’s hands tied, unable to cut.
Either way it’s going to be a serious problem. It will be another economic payback for general Fed incompetence for time and time again holding rates too low, too long.
Soft landing? Forget about it.
end
BLS Releases Revised CPI Data: Here’s What’s In It
FRIDAY, FEB 09, 2024 – 09:04 AM
As we previewed yesterday, today’s most anticipated economic event was the annual revision to the BLS’s seasonal adjustment factors used to calculated the seasonally adjusted headline and core CPI data, and while traditionally this is a non-event for the market, with all attention on the trend in CPI (not to mention Fed governor Waller building up expectations when he said on Jan 16 that “one piece of data I will be watching closely is the scheduled revisions to CPI inflation due next month. Recall that a year ago, when it looked like inflation was coming down quickly, the annual update to the seasonal factors erased those gains”) and also due to the substantial upward revisions last year which had a major impact on Fed market pricing, there was a lot of attention being paid to today’s data.
In retrospect, there should not have been, because as we previewed last night, the annual revision was a nothingburger with revised core inflation at the end of 2023 unchanged compared to what was previously reported on a 3M annualized basis as shown below…
… while the monthly core data was also unchanged for much of late 2023, and the modest changes that did take place in headline MoM CPI did nothing more than to smooth the data.
The uneventful revision may come as a relief to the Fed after last year’s upward revisions which some had expected to be repeated, at a time when inflation has been dropping rapidly according to BLS measurements (whether these are accurate before any seasonal adjustments are applied is a different question entirely).
The results certainly came as relief to the market which sent S&P futures surging to a new all time high, rising as high as 5,043 and yields and the USD dipped sharply when headlines hit that the December Headline CPI print was revised lower by 0.1%, however much of the move was unwound when it became clear that there were virtually no changes between the pre and post-revision data.
TUCKER CARLSON
TUCKER CARLSON…..THE INTERVIEW WITH VLADIMIR PUTIN
Last week, Tucker Carlson traveled to Russia to interview President Vladimir Putin. This sent the left into hysterics – some of whom have called for the journalist to face sanctions, or worse.
Prior to the interview – which can be seen right now in its entirety at tuckercarlson.com, Carlson explained that it’s his job as a journalist “to inform people,” as “most Americans are not informed” as to what’s happening in Ukraine.
To that end, let’s get into it.
Tucker starts the interview by asking Putin why he invaded Ukraine, “and the answer we shocked us.”
Putin proceeded to delve into the history of Ukraine, going back to the middle-ages. Tucker pushed back, saying “I’m not sure why it’s relevant to what happened two years ago,” to which Putin continued with the history lesson.
“But why didn’t you make this case for the first 22 years as president, that Ukraine wasn’t a real country?” Tucker asked.
“The Soviet Union was given a great deal of territory that had never belonged to it, including the Black Sea region. At some point when Russia received them as an outcome of the Russo Turkish wars, they were called New Russia or another Russia. But that does not matter. What matters is that Lenin, the founder of the Soviet state, established Ukraine that way,” Putin replied. “For decades, the Ukrainian Soviet Republic developed as part of the USSR. And for unknown reasons, again, the Bolsheviks were engaged in Ukrainization.”
The trigger for the Ukraine war: “Initially, it was the coup in Ukraine that provoked the conflict… They launched the war in Donbas in 2014 with the use of aircraft and artillery against civilians. This is when it all started.”
NATO Expansion
Getting to the meat of the Ukraine war, Putin told Carlson that “The former Russian leadership assumed that the Soviet Union had ceased to exist and therefore there were no longer any ideological dividing lines. Russia even agreed voluntarily and proactively to the collapse of the Soviet Union, and believed that this would be understood by the so-called civilized West as an invitation for cooperation and association.”
“We were promised no NATO to the east, not an inch to the east, as we were told. And then what? They said, well, it’s not enshrined on paper, so we’ll expand.”
“That is what Russia was expecting, both from the United States and this so-called collective West as a whole. There were smart people, including in Germany, Egon Bahr, a major politician of the Social Democratic Party, who insisted in his personal conversations with the Soviet leadership on the brink of the collapse of the Soviet Union, that they knew security systems should be established in Europe. Help should be given to unified Germany, but a new system should be also established to include the United States, Canada, Russia and other Central European countries. But NATO needs not to expand. That’s what he said. If NATO expands, everything would be just the same as during the Cold War, only closer to Russia’s borders. That’s all. He was a wise old man, but no one listened to him. In fact, he got angry once. If, he said, you don’t listen to me, I’m never setting my foot in Moscow once again. Everything happened just as he had said.”
The state of negotiations:
Vladimir Putin: I already said that we did not refuse to talk. We’re willing to negotiate. It is the western side, and Ukraine is obviously a satellite state of the US. It is evident. I do not want you to take it as if I am looking for a strong word or an insult. But we both understand what is happening. The financial support. 72 billion U.S. dollars was provided. Germany ranks second, then other European countries come. Dozens of billions of U.S. dollars are going to Ukraine. There’s a huge influx of weapons. In this case, you should tell the current Ukrainian leadership to stop and come to a negotiating table, rescind this absurd decree. We did not refuse.
Tucker: Sure, but you already said it. I didn’t think you meant it is an insult because you already said correctly, it’s been reported that Ukraine was prevented from negotiating a peace settlement by the former British Prime Minister acting on behalf of the Biden administration. So, of course they’re a satellite. Big countries control small countries. That’s not new. And that’s why I asked about dealing directly with the Biden administration, which is making these decisions, not President Zelensky of Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin: Well if the Zelensky administration in Ukraine refused to negotiate, I assume they did it under the instruction from Washington. If Washington believes it to be the wrong decision, let it abandon it. Let it find the delicate excuse so that no one is insulted. Let it come up with a way out. It was not us who made this decision. It was them. So let them go back on it. That is it. However, they made the wrong decision. And now we have to look for a way out of this situation to correct their mistakes. They did it, so let them correct it themselves. We support this.
Tucker: So I just want to make sure I’m not misunderstanding what you’re saying. I don’t think that I am. I think you’re saying you want a negotiated settlement to what’s happening in Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin: Right. And we made it. We prepared the huge document in Istanbul that was initialed by the head of the Ukrainian delegation. He had fixed his signature to some of the provisions, not to all of it. He put his signature and then he himself said, we were ready to sign it, and the war would have been over long ago. 18 months ago. However, Prime Minister Johnson came, talk to us out of it and we missed that chance. Well, you missed it. You made a mistake. Let them get back to that. That is all. Why do we have to bother ourselves and correct somebody else’s mistakes? I know one can say it is our mistake. It was us who intensified the situation and decided to put an end to the war that started in 2014, in Donbas. As I have already said by means of weapons. Lt me get back to furthering history. I already told you this. We were just discussing it. Let us go back to 1991, when we were promised that NATO would not expand to 2008, when the doors to NATO opened to the Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine, declaring Ukraine a neutral state. Let us go back to the fact that NATO and U.S. military bases started to appear on the territory, Ukraine creating threats to us. Let us go back to coup d’etat in Ukraine in 2014. It is pointless, though, isn’t it? We may go back and forth endlessly, but they stopped negotiations. Is it a mistake? Yes. Correct it. We are ready. What else is needed?
Watch Putin explain that he had a signed peace deal (before BoJo arrived) here:
On the negotiation process and its failure: “There have been [talks] they reached a very high stage of coordination of positions in a complex process, but still they were almost finalized. But after we withdrew our troops from Kiev… the other side threw away all these agreements.”
On his last conversation with Joe Biden: “Well, yes, he funds, but I talked to him before the special military operation, of course… I believe that you are making a huge mistake of historic proportions by supporting everything that is happening there, in Ukraine, by pushing Russia away.”
On the possibility of global conflict: “It goes against common sense to get involved in some kind of a global war and a global war will bring all humanity to the brink of destruction.”
On the concept of de-nazification: “De-nazification… means the prohibition of all kinds of neo-Nazi movements… We have to get rid of those people who maintain this concept and support this practice and try to preserve it.”
On Russia’s territorial ambitions: “We simply don’t have any interest [in Poland, Latvia, or anywhere else]. It’s just threat mongering.”
Elon Musk and Neuralink
Putin then suggested that Elon Musk is unstoppable, saying “He will do as he sees fit. Nevertheless, you’ll need to find some common ground with him. Search for ways to persuade him. I think he’s a smart person. I truly believe he is. So you’ll need to reach an agreement with him because this process needs to be formalized and subjected to certain rules. Humanity has to consider what is going to happen due to the newest development in genetics or in AI? One can make an approximate prediction of what will happen.”
Even more:
On the Nord Stream explosion: “People always say in such cases, look for someone who is interested. But in this case, we should not only look for someone who is interested, but also for someone who has capabilities… Who is interested and who is capable of doing it?”
Tucker: “Who blew up Nord Stream?” Putin: “You for sure.” Tucker: “I was busy that day. I did not blow up Nord Stream.” Putin: “You personally may have an alibi, but the CIA has no such alibi.“
On presenting evidence of NATO’s involvement: “In the war of propaganda, it is very difficult to defeat the United States because the United States controls all the world’s media… We can simply shine the spotlight on our sources of information and we will not achieve results.”
On Germany’s silence regarding Nord Stream: “Today’s German leadership is guided by the interests of the collective West rather than its national interests.”
On global alliances and security: “Security should be shared rather than meant for the golden billion. That is the only scenario where the world could be stable, sustainable, and predictable.”
On the use of the US dollar as a political tool: “To use the dollar as a tool of foreign policy struggle is one of the biggest strategic mistakes made by the US political leadership.”
On the impact of sanctions and the shift away from the US dollar: “Even the United States allies are now downsizing their dollar reserves… It wasn’t us who banned the use of the US dollar. It was the decision of the United States to restrict our transactions in U.S. dollars.”
On the relationship with China: “China’s foreign policy philosophy is not aggressive. Its idea is to always look for compromise.”
On potential for change in US-Russia relations: “It is not about the personality of the leader. It is about the elites’ mindset, leader deal. If the idea of domination at any cost, based also on forceful actions, dominates the American society, nothing will change.”
On the nature of power in the US: “It is very difficult for us to sort it all out. Who makes decisions in the elections? Each state regulates itself… There are two parties that are dominant: the Republicans and the Democrats.”
On Christianity and violence: “It is very easy when it comes to protecting oneself and one’s family, one’s homeland. We won’t attack anyone… And we were protecting our people, ourselves, our homeland and our future.”
Tucker also asked about imprisoned WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich:
Tucker: I just gotta ask you one last question. And that’s about someone who is very famous in the United States. Probably not here. Evan Gershkovich who’s the Wall Street Journal reporter. He’s 32. And he’s been in prison for almost a year. This is a huge story in the United States. And I just want to ask you directly, without getting into the details of it or your version of what happened, if, as a sign of your decency, you would be willing to release him to us and we’ll bring him back to the United States.
Vladimir Putin: We have done so many gestures of goodwill out of decency that I think we have run out of them. We have never seen anyone reciprocate to us in a similar manner. However, in theory, we can say that we do not rule out that we can do that if our partners take reciprocal steps. When I talk about the partners, I first of all refer to special services. Special services are in contact with one another. They are talking about the matter in question. There is no taboo to settle this issue. We are willing to solve it but there are certain terms being discussed via special services channels. I believe an agreement can be reached.
The special counsel decided not to charge President Biden for willfully keeping and sharing classified documents, but delivered an assessment of his mental acuity that raises new concerns.
Though the special counsel investigating Joe Biden’s possession of classified documents ultimately did not recommend charges after finding he “willfully” kept and shared some of the memos, the prosecutor gave a scathing assessment of the President’s mental acuity months before the presidential election.
Special Counsel Robert Hur’s report cited several factors contributing to his decision to decline filing any charges against Biden. One reason Hur provided: Biden’s poor memory.
“We have also considered that, at trial, Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” Hur wrote.
“Based on our direct interactions with and observations of him, he is someone for whom many jurors will want to identify reasonable doubt. It would be difficult to convince a jury that they should convict him-by then a former president well into his eighties-of a serious felony that requires a mental state of willfulness,” the prosecutor continued.
You can read the report below:
Further in the report, Hur noted that President Biden “appeared to have significant limitation” both in recordings with ghostwriter of his memoir—Mark Zwonitzer—in 2017 and during his 2023 interview with the special counsel’s team.
“Mr. Biden’s recorded conversations with Zwonitzer from 2017 are often painfully slow, with Mr. Biden struggling to remember events and straining at times to read and relay his own notebook entries,” Hur’s report said of the recorded memoir planning sessions.
Yet, by 2023, when President Biden sat for a five hour interview with Hur’s team, his memory was “worse,” failing to recall the years of his vice presidency and forgetting the year – 2015 – that his son, Beau Biden, died after a battle with brain cancer, according to the report.
“He did not remember when he was vice president, forgetting on the first day of the interview when his term ended (‘if it was 2013 – when did I stop being Vice President?’), and forgetting on the second day of the interview when his term began (‘in 2009, am I still Vice President?’),” Hurr wrote, summarizing the interview.
“He did not remember, even within several years, when his son Beau died,” the report added.
The White House was permitted to review the special counsel’s report before it was released publicly. In a letter dated Feb. 5, President Biden’s lawyers vehemently criticized Hur’s decision to use “prejudicial language” to describe President Biden’s memory.
“We do not believe that the report’s treatment of President Biden’s memory is accurate or appropriate,” White House wrote Hur in a letter, appended to the report. “The report uses highly prejudicial language to describe a commonplace occurrence among witnesses: a lack of recall of years-old events,” the letter continues.
“Such comments have no place in a Department of Justice report, particularly one that in the first paragraph announces that no criminal charges are ‘warranted’ and that ‘the evidence [emphasis original] does not establish Mr. Biden’s guilt.’ If the evidence does not establish guilt, then discussing the jury impact of President Biden’s hypothetical testimony at a trial that will never occur is entirely superfluous,” the White House added.
The searing assessment of Biden’s poor memory from the special counsel comes the same week that the president’s public comments recalling meetings with dead European leaders have raised concerns about his mental acuity.
At campaign events on Wednesday, President Biden twice said that he had spoken with German Chancellor Helmut Kohl at a diplomatic meeting in the United Kingdom shortly after the Jan. 6 riot. However, Kohl died in 2017. Biden was likely referring to former Chancellor Angela Merkel, who resigned in late 2021.
At a separate event on Sunday, Biden confused current French President Emmanuel Macron with former President François Mitterrand, who died in 1996, when Biden was still a senator from Delaware.
The White House on Thursday defended these slip-ups at a press conference.
“As it relates to the names and what he was trying to say, many people, elected officials, many people, you know, they can misspeak sometimes, right?” Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters.
“And so this happens. You know, it happens to all of us and it is common,” she added.
END
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM…
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
END
SWAMP STORIES
“My Memory Is Fine” Biden Fumes, Before Confusing Egypt’s Sisi With The President Of Mexico
THURSDAY, FEB 08, 2024 – 10:45 PM
In less than 15 minutes, President Biden proved Special Counsel Robert Hur right and confirmed all concerns about his fitness for office.
As we detailed earlier, Hur wrote in his report that he would not suggest bringing charges against the president for his mishandling of classified documents because, “Biden will likely present himself to the jury, as he did during his interview with our office, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”
The president, having ‘seen dead people’ numerous times this week, was apparently displeased with the report, and decided the correct course of action was a (rare) press conference to set the world straight on his mental acuity.
It did not go well.
He welcomed the special counsel’s decision not to bring charges:
“The bottom line is the matter is now closed,”Biden asserted, with respect to the report.
But, then proceeded to throw his staff under the bus:
“I take responsibility for not having seen exactly what my staff was doing,” he said.
“Things that appeared in my garage, things that came out of my home, things that were moved, were moved not by me, but my staff, but my staff,” he continued.
Then he took issue with the special counsel report’s questioning his mental acuity around the timing of his son’s death, and angry-old-man mode was unleashed:
“How in the hell dare he raise that? Frankly, when I was asked the question, I thought to myself, it was none of their damn business,” Biden thundered.
Biden started to say he wore his son’s rosary every day since the day Beau died, but stopped, when he appeared to forget where the rosary came from.
“Every Memorial Day we hold a service remembering him, attended by friends and family and the people who loved him,” Biden continued, after a pause. “I don’t need anyone. I don’t need anyone to remind me when he passed away.”
The mumbling continued as opened up the press conference to questions – not a great idea in hindsight.
Constantly defending himself against allegations of failing memory, Biden appeared to snap when Fox News White House correspondent Peter Doocy asked Biden, “How bad is your memory?”
“My memory is so bad I let you speak,” Biden said.
“My memory is fine. Take a look at what I’ve done since I’ve become president.”
Doocy pressed, pointing to the Special Counsel’s description of Biden as an “elderly, well-meaning man.”
“I am well-meaning. And I’m an elderly man. And I know what the hell I’m doing,” Biden reacted.
“I’ve been president – I put this country back on its feet. I don’t need his recommendation.”
Biden’s rage reached its zenith when a CNN reporter began to ask a question about the American people’s concerns about his mental state (a perspective that is widely held according to many polls). “The American people have been watching and they have expressed concerns about your age,” the reporter said.
“That is your judgement! That is your judgement! That is not the judgement of the press!” Biden shouted back at her.
Biden also bizarrely claimed that he had vowed to be a “president” for everybody “whether they were from a red state or a green state.”
And then, as his piéce de resistance, after initially walking out, the president called Israel’s response in Gaza “over the top” and then mistakenly referred to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as the President of Mexico.
“Initially, the president of Mexico — Sisi — did not want to open up the gate to allow humanitarian material to get in. I talked to him. I convinced him to open the gate.”
Of course, the ultimate irony of all of this is that it occurred within minutes of Tucker Carlson releasing an unedited, wide-ranging two-hour long interview with Russian president Vladimir Putin.
Yes, Virginia; Fed officials are concerned that US economic data is bogus!
Fed’s Barkin says he’s cautious about accuracy of recent economic data http://reut.rs/3ujyg1I “The data has been remarkable across the board,” Barkin said in an interview with Bloomberg TV, citing strong economic growth and job gains. “But I am always cautious about numbers around the turn of the year, there’s big seasonal adjustments…I am not sure I am going to take too much out of any one month.”
Barkin: Cautious of Jan. jobs numbers due to size of seasonals – BBG
Highlights of Yellen’s testimony at the Senate Banking Committee (BBG headlines)Yellen: US needs to reduce deficits to reach sustainable pathYellen: No sign of issues with Treasury’s debt-selling abilityYellen: Financial Stability Panel monitoring CREYellen: Believe CRE won’t end up being a systemic banking riskYellen: May be some smaller banks stressed by CREYellen: Don’t expect the level of consumer prices to go downYellen: China poses number of threats Treasury concerned aboutYellen: Particularly concerned about cyber threats, ransomware, AIYellen: Concern in market stress, could see a nonbank mortgage lender failureYellen: Treasury never tries to time market in selling debt Janet Yellen warns high prices could be here to stay Janet Yellen says wage increases will offset sting of high prices (Ivy League or Dem econ theory!?) https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/janet-yellen-warns-high-prices-could-be-here-stay
@theblaze: Senator Kennedy to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen: “You’re a good sport to go out every day and try to defend Bidenomics. It’s like trying to defend a fungal infection. Bidenomics is really just paying more to live worse.” https://twitter.com/theblaze/status/1755638239623323718
ESHs traded mostly moderately negative but sideways from the Nikkei opening until they broke down after the 3 ET European opening. The decline accelerated near 6 ET. ESHs hit a low of 5003.75 at 6:29 ET. The rally for the NYSE opening took ESHs to 5016.00 at 9:34 ET.
The dump for the NYSE opening rally commenced early. ESHs sank to 50005.50 at 10:41 ET. Traders played for the 2nd Hour Reversal. ESHs jumped to 5014.50 at 10:58 ET. Selling for the European close appeared; ESHs slid to 5005.00 at the11:30 ET European close.
A Noon Balloon took ESHs to 5013.75 at 12:28 ET. Selling resumed; ESHs fell to 5006.25 at 12:55 ET.
USHs traded modestly lower but sideways from the Nikkei opening until they broke down after the European opening. USHs hit a low of 119 22/32 (-1 5/32) at 11:19 ET. Apparently, too many traders and dealers were long from the massive US 3 and 10-year note auctions – and the US 30-year bond auction of $25B, the largest 30-year auction in over two years, was just hours away.
The US 30-year bond auction results: 4.36% vs 4.38% WI. USHs jumped 18/32 on the results.
ESHs jumped 9 handles when USHs rallied on the 30-year auction results. But the rally quickly reversed. The USH rally also reversed. ESHs resumed their rally quickly; USHs went inert. ESHs chopped lower, falling to 5008.00 at 14:37 ET. The last-hour manipulation pushed ESHs to 5017.50 at 15:20 ET. ESHs then sank to 5011.00 at 15:50 ET. The late manipulation pushed ESHs to 5020.00 at 15:59 ET.
The wild swings for ESHs and stocks on Thursday were due to selling pressure each time the S&P 500 Index got within 3 to 4 handles from 5000. Though the S&P 500 Index hit 5000.40, it closed 4997.91.
Positive aspects of previous session A blatant but determined late manipulation pushed the S&P 500 Index to 5000.40 Major equity indices rallied modestly
Negative aspects of previous session USHs hit -1 pt. at NYSE close Despite the late ESH manipulation, the S&P 500 Index closed below 5000 (4997.91) Gasoline and WTI Oil soared
Ambiguous aspects of previous session ESHs and US stocks gyrated wildly in a wide range. Which way will they break?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 4995.13 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5000.40; 4987.09
Special counsel: No charges for Biden in classified documents probe Special counsel Robert K. Hur found evidence President Biden “willfully retained and disclosed classified materials after his vice presidency when he was a private citizen” but that evidence “does not establish Mr. Biden’s guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.”… (But he can be president!!?!?) Ultimately, the report said a jury would find Biden to be a sympathetic figure and “a well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” Hur said it would be “difficult to convince a jury that they should convict him — by then a former president well into his eighties — of a serious felony that requires a mental state of willfulness,” the report said… “Mr. Biden’s memory was significantly limited, both during his recorded interviews with the ghostwriter in 2017, and in his interview with our office in 2023,” the report said… https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/02/08/biden-classified-documents-special-counsel-report/
@Geiger_Capital: The Department of Justice actually concluded that President Biden was too old and too cognitively impaired to be found guilty of a crime… Perfect to lead America for 5 more years. “He did not remember when he was Vice President (‘in 2009, am I still Vice President?’)… He also did not remember, even within several years, when his son Beau died.” https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1755689270738604237 Legitimate and unbiased 25th Amendment arguments should now be on the table.
@JudiciaryGOP: Special Counsel Hur recommends no criminal charges against Biden in classified documents case. Despite the fact that Hur acknowledges Biden willfully retained and disclosed classified materials after his vice presidency when he was a private citizen. DOUBLE STANDARD. They didn’t want to bring charges against President Biden for the classified documents case because he’s too old and has a bad memory. They’re admitting what we all see every day.
@JonathanTurley: The DOJ is defending the lack of criminal charges against Joe Biden while noting the difficulty of going to trial against a “‘well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” Biden is found to have “willfully retained” documents but he is still viewed as too sympathetic a potential defendant as “a sympathetic” person. Trump is clearly neither sympathetic nor sufficiently old to warrant such consideration. Biden did not even have to show up in pajamas like Vincent “the Chin” Gigante to get the deference for his age…
House Judiciary Com Chair @Jim_Jordan: Today’s report from Robert Hur tells us two things: There’s a double standard of justice in this country. And Joe Biden isn’t fit for office.
Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich:Biden’s lawyers wrote to Hur asking that he revise descriptions of the President’s memory – notable given voter concerns about his mental capacity. https://t.co/Eke92sZH2s
@paulsperry_: FBI agents recovered TOP SECRET/SENSITIVE COMPARTMENT INFORMATION documents about US troops and military strategy in AFGHANISTAN from Biden’s GARAGE in Delaware. TS/SCI records must be contained and reviewed only in a SCIF.
@julie_kelly2: Unbelievable. Biden’s ghostwriter deleted files after special counsel was appointed. But he won’t be charged with destruction of evidence or obstruction of justice. Two Mar a Lago employees charged with obstruction for MOVING BOXES. https://twitter.com/julie_kelly2/status/1755688182417440924
@HenryJGomez: Asked if Hur’s report changes the calculus for Democrats who expect Biden to be the party’s nominee, one Dem operative replied: “How the f— does it not?”https://t.co/TtU9nnWm5Q
Biden’s handlers we so alarmed and panicked by Special Counsel Hur’s ‘Dementia Joe’ report, and the response from MSM allies, that had The Big Guy address the nation at 19:45 ET. Biden’s presser was a colossal blunder. Even media allies were alarmed at his angry, deceitful, and forgetful performance.
Angry Biden attacks special counsel after damning classified document report: ‘I know what the hell I’m doing’ – “I’ve seen the headlines since the report was released about my willful retention of documents. These assertions are not only just misleading, they’re just plain wrong,” Biden said defiantly during a hastily scheduled appearance in the White House Diplomatic Reception Room. “In addition, I know there’s some attention paid to the language in the report about my recollection of events. There’s even some reference that I don’t remember when my son died. How the hell dare he raise that? Frankly when I was asked the question, I thought to myself it wasn’t any of their damned business.” Biden then railed against Hur’s assessment that he would likely be let off by a jury on the grounds of perceived senility — moments before misidentifying Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as the “president of Mexico.”… “I didn’t know how half the boxes got in my garage,” he said, blaming staff for his decades-long streak of sloppy handling of the nation’s secrets… The journalist continued, “In December, you told me you believed there were many other Democrats who could defeat Donald Trump. So why does it have to be you now?” “Because I am the most qualified person in this country to be president of the United States,” Biden shot back, “and finish the job I started.”… https://t.co/hzUfsmJ2ai
@ColumbiaBugle: Biden in his emergency address coughed, verbally stumbled, shouted, gave rambling answers with long pauses, spent much of it with his mouth agape and called Egypt “Mexico.”… His address included a press free-for-all, where Biden seemed to be frozen by journalists shouting questions at him, failing to call on any for long stretches of time and instead merely staring at them.
@jacobkschneider: I cannot believe the White House’s response to a report calling Biden too old to function was to roll him out on national television and start yelling.
@BrianColas7: The press has done a 180 and wants Biden gone. They’re not even hiding it.
@mtaibbi: That Biden presser was one of the most uncomfortable moments in presidential history.
@GOPoversight: The Justice Department should immediately release the transcript from the Special Counsel’s interview with President Joe Biden. The American people deserve transparency about President Biden’s mental state.
Fox: GOP Rep. Tenney calls to invoke 25th Amendment to remove Biden from office after ‘alarming’ Hur report (Many others did the same.)
@DrJBhattacharya: The CDC commissioned scientists to see if N95s work better than surgical masks for healthcare workers. They reviewed the high-quality evidence and came back with a surprising answer: no. Ignoring the evidence & because they did not like the answer, the CDC told the scientists they were wrong. @CDCgov should change its moniker to the Center for Pseudo-Science.
@AP: The Supreme Court sounds broadly skeptical of efforts to kick former President Trump off of the 2024 ballot. (Even liberal justices bashed State of Colorado attorneys!)
@JonathanTurley: (CO atty) Murray is finally done. That was rough. He took more arrows than Saint Sebastian and they were coming from both the left and the right of the court. Shannon Stevenson is now up… The argument is now over. The disqualification advocates may have expected a cold reception, but this was perfectly glacial. Notably, some of the toughest and most skeptical questions came from the left of the Court. Most notable were the questions from Justice Jackson who seemed to push the idea that the president may not have been intended to be one of those covered by the provision… https://twitter.com/JonathanTurley/status/1755630830469181632
Fox: Kavanaugh drills Colorado attorney on meaning of ‘insurrection’ in Constitution “When you look at Section 3 the term insurrection jumps out,” Kavanaugh said. “And the questions are, what does that mean? How do you define it? Who decides? Who decides whether someone engaged in it?”…https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/supreme-court-hears-trump-ballot-oral-arguments?
@sentimentrader: Weakness among stocks on the Nasdaq has triggered the most technical warning signs since December 2021. Not only that, but there is a stark divergence between the S&P 500 and the percentage of its members trading above their 10-, 50-, and 200-day averages. Similar behavior over the past 95 years preceded consistently poor returns. For the first time in years, underlying conditions are becoming a bit unhinged. (The Mag 7 Stocks Bubble is the reason!) https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/1755239949362762006
Today – Traders, already exceedingly bullish, will eagerly play for the usual Friday Rally and try to force the S&P 500 Index decisively above 5000. If the S&P 500 Index cannot attain escape velocity, look out below! Will the sellers that have thwarted the push to 5000 stymie the bulls again?
ESHs are -3.50 and USHs are +15/32 at 22:00 ET.
Expected Economic Data: CPI Revisions (Should be hilarious!); Dallas Fed Pres Logan 13:30 ET
S&P Index 50-day MA: 4760; 100-day MA: 4554; 150-day MA: 4530; 200-day MA: 4459 DJIA 50-day MA: 37,406; 100-day MA: 35,653; 150-day MA: 35,379, 200-day MA: 34,946 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index – Trender trading model and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4314.46 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4633.13 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4890.31 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4965.55 triggers a sell signal
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy fired Ukraine’s top general Valery Zaluzhny. Zelensky named Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky to replace Zaluzhny.
@greg_price11: The Senate just voted 67-32 in favor of advancing a $95B foreign aid bill for Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, and Taiwan without the border provisions: Republicans who voted in favor: Murkowski, McConnell, Cassidy, Wicker, Young, Collins, Capito, Kennedy, Thune, Sullivan, Romney, Ernst, Rounds, Tillis, Cornyn, Grassley
GOP Sen. @RandPaul: This bill sends the message to Americans that their elected officials don’t care about them. I’ve never met any Kentuckian who says, “fix the border of Ukraine before you fix our border.” The only reason we are considering this legislation now is so Schumer and McConnell can celebrate with Zelenskyy when they travel to Ukraine this month. The only question is whether Ukraine will foot the bill for the champagne, or whether Americans will pay for that too.
@WesternLensman: Dem Sen. Chris Murphy just said the quiet part out loud: [Democrat strategy] has failed to deliver for the people we care about most, the undocumented Americans that are in this country.”https://twitter.com/WesternLensman/status/1755432442553368613
@NBCNews: The Biden administration is considering taking executive action to deter illegal migration across the southern border, according to two U.S. officials. https://t.co/qLT1D3NoUN
Just a few days ago, The Big Guy vehemently claimed that there was nothing he could do about the border. Image that, The Big Guy lying to us! @EndWokeness: On Monday, Biden said that he just met with François Mitterrand. Mitterrand died in 1996. Tonight, at a fundraiser, Biden said he met Helmut Kohl about January 6th. Kohl died in 2017.
Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: Another slip at Biden’s fundraisers tonight- via pool: “… at the 2nd and 3rd events today POTUS seemed to say that Helmut Kohl (who died in 2017) was there with him at his first foreign trip as President talking about Jan 6th…Angela Merkel was the German chancellor in 2021.” https://twitter.com/JacquiHeinrich/status/1755419942000717830
CNN Quietly Admits Mental Decline Has Forced Biden into Hiding After Denying Super Bowl Interview – Mohsin then referred to a clip of Biden mumbling his way through a previous interview, pointing out that it is a problem the president cannot get through a few sentences without losing his train of thought. “[J]ust look at that clip we just saw. If he is not able to follow the questions, if his staff is worried that he can connect the dots and find the word that he’s looking for, that’s a problem,” she said. https://townhall.com/tipsheet/saraharnold/2024/02/07/cnn-accidentally-reports-mental-decline-has-forced-biden-into-hiding-n2634918
‘Biden ain’t doing s—‘: Black Chicago voters blast Democrats, say Trump a better fit for White Househttps://t.co/VpN4LwxVk6
McConnell’s Leadership in Jeopardy After Sending Lankford on a ‘Suicide Mission’ in Border Negotiations – An increasing number of Republican senators believe it is time for Mitch McConnell’s ousting as GOP leader… The reason the bill failed to secure the border, however, is because McConnell, after deputizing Lankford, prevented the senator from Oklahoma from attaching Ukraine aid to any real, concrete metric of bringing down the number of migrants entering the United States. “Without telling anybody, apparently, McConnell, on his own, told Lankford that’s not even on the table,” Johnson said. Later, “we had that confirmed by Sinema, who said that James never asked for that.” For Johnson, it was “a breach of [McConnell’s] leadership position” by blowing off the consensus view of the conference… “I have no idea why we’re doing it except for this: Senate leadership is obsessed,” Vance told Bannon. It’s “a borderline fetish with getting Ukraine money and they’re willing to give away all of our leverage to get it…Leadership really screwed this up,” Vance said at a press conference… Nevertheless, “one of the leverage points that McConnell has, and he reminds us of it all the time, including last Wednesday at lunch,” is campaign funds, Johnson claimed. McConnell “reminds everybody how much he has raised for the Senate Leadership Fund. That ends up apparently being pretty powerful leverage for most members.”… https://www.theamericanconservative.com/mcconnells-leadership-in-jeopardy-after-sending-lankford-on-a-suicide-mission-in-border-negotiations/
@i24NEWS_EN: IDF warns Hezbollah it is ready for immediate escalation, with dozens of aircraft over Lebanon to number in the hundreds. ‘Hundreds of targets will be targeted at the same time,’ Israeli Air Force commander says. https://twitter.com/i24NEWS_EN/status/1755678270350115135
@foxnewspolitics: Biden invited Muslim leader who publicly supported terror group Hezbollah to meet with his top aides
Tucker Carlson: The Putin Interview “We were promised no NATO to the east, not an inch to the east, as we were told. And then what? They said, well, it’s not enshrined on paper, so we’ll expand.”… I already said that we did not refuse to talk. We’re willing to negotiate. It is the western side, and Ukraine is obviously a satellite state of the US. It is evident… We prepared the huge document in Istanbulthat was initialed by the head of the Ukrainian delegation. He had fixed his signature to some of the provisions, not to all of it. He put his signature and then he himself said, we were ready to sign it, and the war would have been over long ago. 18 months ago. However, Prime Minister Johnson came, talk to us out of it and we missed that chance. Well, you missed it. You made a mistake… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/tucker-carlson-putin-interview
PUTIN: “A coup d’etat was committed [in Ukraine] (in 2014) …” TUCKER: “With the backing of whom?” PUTIN: “With the backing of the CIA, of course. The organization you(Carlson) wanted to join back in the day… thank God they didn’t let you in.” https://twitter.com/upholdreality/status/1755738265183813641
@bennyjohnson: Vladimir Putin reacts to Chuck Schumer suggesting Americans will fight in Ukraine: “Don’t you have anything better to do? You have issues on the border. Issues with migration, issues with the national debt..”https://t.co/YdKMK12qWr
Putin trashes Biden, Bill Clinton and the CIA in bombshell Tucker Carlson interviewBill Clinton offered Russia a place in NATO, but was overruled by his staffRussia has superior ‘supersonic missiles’ to every other nationThe Russian leader spoke fondly of former president George W. Bush and said he had a ‘very good relationship with him… gushed about his relationships with Bush and Trump… https://t.co/Kve4fOSFNT
Vladimir Putin claims he was ready to end war 18 months ago but Boris Johnson scuppered dealhttps://t.co/EaxRhplwqC
Tucker Carlson interviewed Vladimir Putin, and the Deep State melted down. They called him a “Mouthpiece for Putin,” a “traitor” and threatened to sanction Carlson. Why? The truth is a powerful thing, and the Deep State wants you to think the lies they are telling you about the Ukraine war are true. This against a backdrop of the US Senate sending another $60 billion for a war that has already cost the lives of 500,000 Ukrainian soldiers. Putin says he is ready to stop the war and negotiate a peace deal. It is dangerous for you to hear that blasphemy when so much money and kickbacks are being made off a war that was lost long ago. Way to go, Tucker!
The Left and RINO Republicans think that Trump can win in 2024; otherwise, they would not be trying everything they can to stop him. When the lawsuits looked like a bust, they started trying to take Trump off the ballot state by state for the so-called insurrection on January 6th. The case of the Colorado removal of Trump off their ballots in November was heard by the Supreme Court (SCOTUS) today. The lawyers for Colorado trying to keep Trump off the ballot were destroyed and so was the “insurrection” narrative. It looks like a win from SCOTUS is coming for Trump and “We the People.”
If you think the Biden economy is good, you are in the tiny minority. According to the Federal Reserve, credit card debt hit a record $1.13 trillion, and delinquencies surged 50%. That is not the sign of a healthy economy, but a very sick consumer living paycheck to paycheck and stretching it all out by maxing out their credit cards. It is only going to get worse as layoffs surge, while the government labor statistics tell us that unemployment is going down when the opposite is true. Remember, this is an election year, and the lies are going to be big.
There is much more in the 48-minute newscast.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 2.9.24.
(Tech Note: If you do not see the video, know it is there. Unplug your modem and plug it back in after 30 sec. This will clear codes that may be blocking you from seeing it. In addition, try different browsers. Also, turn off all ad blockers if you have them. Finally, clear your Cashe and that might help too. https://its.uiowa.edu/support/article/719 All the above is a way Big Tech tries to censor people like USAWatchdog.com.)
After the Wrap-Up:
Dane Wigington, founder of GeoEngineeringwatch.org will come on and explain all the crazy weather being made worse by climate engineering.
HARVEY: Your Trump club card is showing!. Displaying obvious bias towards a man who is so obviously incompetent and deranged could make your readers question your own judgement. I suggest more real financial news, and less fake news and political spin.
Vigilant News
Dr. Peter McCullough Warns of ‘One-World Government Coming Our Way’
Listen now
harveyorganblog.com 
HARVEY: Your Trump club card is showing!. Displaying obvious bias towards a man who is so obviously incompetent and deranged could make your readers question your own judgement. I suggest more real financial news, and less fake news and political spin.
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