APRIL 12/BLOG//GOLD CLOSED UP $2.80 TO $2357.60/SILVER ROSE 10 CENTS TO $28.26/PLATINUM WAS UP $8.50 TO $987.30/WHILE PALLADIUM WAS UP $16.65 TO $1058.30//LIVE FROM THE VAULT WITH ANDREW MCGUIRE AND DAVE KRANZLER//CHINA’S EXPORTS DROP HUGELY AND MAY HAVE TO DEVAULE//EUROPE PARLIAMENT VETOS ANTI MIGRANT BILL//ISRAEL VS IRAN: IRAN MAY ATTACK AT ANY MOMENT//ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH/WEST BANK VS ISRAEL/ RUSSIA VS UKRAINE//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE UPDATES//DR PAUL ALEXANDER/MARK CRISPIN MILLER//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
The defense of $2300 gold is now upon us and surpassed. Next up $2400 gold//Silver’s next line is $28.42. Then $34.76
With gold and silver massively higherl, the crooks used their massive paper shorts to whack the prices lower. Nothing really changed. We will go through this again on Monday once China enters the market
Bitcoin morning price:$70.610 UP 274 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $66,600 DOWN 3736 dollars
Platinum price closing UP $8.80 TO $987.30
Palladium price; UP $16.65 AT $1058.30
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 29 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD
SHANGHAI GOLD……
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Last Updated 12 Apr 2024 05:23:56 AM CT.
Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.
MONTH
CHART
LAST
CHANGE
PRIOR SETTLE
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
VOLUME
UPDATED
APR 2024 SGUJ4
–
–
2384.5
–
–
–
0
21:30:01 CT 11 Apr 2024
MAY 2024 SGUK4
–
–
2384.4
–
–
–
0
21:30:01 CT 11 Apr 2024
JUN 2024 SGUM4
2448.2
+49.7 (+2.07%)
2398.5
2432.6
2448.2
2431.0
567
01:59:21 CT 12 Apr 2024
JUL 2024 SGUN4
–
–
–
–
–
–
0
–
AUG 2024 SGUQ4
2448.5
+35.7 (+1.48%)
2412.8
2448.5
2448.5
2448.5
2
23:05:01 CT 11 Apr 2024
OCT 2024 SGUV4
2460.4
+35.0 (+1.44%)
2425.4
2463.8
2463.8
2460.4
56
23:13:44 CT 11 Apr 2024
DEC 2024 SGUZ4
–
–
2426.0
–
–
–
0
21:30:01 CT 11 Apr 2024
FEB 2025 SGUG5
–
–
2426.6
–
–
–
0
21:30:01 CT 11 Apr 2024
APR 2025 SGUJ5
–
–
…from the CME….
“As of Monday, April 1, 2024, CME Group settlement data is no longer accessible through ftp.cmegroup.com and has a delayed publication time of 12:00 a.m. CT on all cmegroup.com web pages. Learn about alternate ways to access the data in our FAQ.”
Now I retrieve the data after 1 am
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros
4: 15 PM ACCESS
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3227.95 DOWN 20.00 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,247.00 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//APRIL 11 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1882,47 DOWN 7.50 pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1889.90 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 11/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2202.32 DOWN 10.50 euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2212.60 EUROS PER OZ//APRIL 11.2024)
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363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 80 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 106 523 H INTERACTIVE BRO 5 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 46 661 C JP MORGAN 150 20 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 20 690 C ABN AMRO 3 737 C ADVANTAGE 48 18 905 C ADM 8 991 H CME 40
TOTAL: 272 272 MONTH TO DATE: 13,951
JPMORGAN STOPPED (RECEIVED) 0/272 CONTRACTS
FOR APRIL/2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2024. CONTRACT: 272 NOTICES FOR 27,200 OZ or 0.8460 TONNES
total notices so far: 13,951 contracts for 1,395,100 Oz (43.393 tonnes)
FOR APRIL:
SILVER NOTICES: 421 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 2105,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1152 for 5,760,000 oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $2.80
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ :
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.75 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.75 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 10 CENTS AT THE SLV// (THIS MAKES LOTS OF SENSE!)
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.069 MILLION OZ
// INVENTORY FALLS TO 433.998 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 433.998 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 3809 CONTRACTS TO 178,801 AND RAPIDLY CLOSING IN ON THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR SMALLISH GAIN IN PRICE OF $.23 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION WITH AGAIN PANICKING SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE HUGE PRICE GAIN. WE HAD A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS 3631 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 3631 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.23), AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A ULTRA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 4259 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE SMALLISH GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.23.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A GOOD SIZED 450 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 2.465 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2,165,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 6.380 MILLION OZ//
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 6.380 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 3631 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED A WHOPPING 629 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 10 days, total 15,478 contracts: OR 77.390 MILLION OZ (1548 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 77.390 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 77.390 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS)
RESULT: WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3809 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR SMALLISH GAININ PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 3631 ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL. OF 2.465 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAYS’ 2,165,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING RISES TO 6.380 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 4259 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE SMALLISH GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 3631 CONTRACTS,//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (3631) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 421 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 2,105,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A MEGA HUMONGOUS 17,676 SIZED OI CONTRACTS TO 523,277- AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 343 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (17,676 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR STRONG $25.30 GAIN IN PRICE//THURSDAY. THE BANKERS WERE FORCED TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO CONTAIN GOLD’S RISE.WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL. AT 44.8615 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 23,200 OZ.(0.9269 TONNES)
NEW STANDING 44.320 TONNES// ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $25.30 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 22,914 OI CONTRACTS (71.272 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5238CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 523,277
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ULTRA HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 22,914 CONTRACTS WITH 17,676 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 5238 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 22,914 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A GOOD SIZED 2733 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5238 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (17,676) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 22,914 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 44.8615 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.9269 TONNES QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING 44.320 TONNES.
/ 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE.
// 4) HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: GOOD T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2783CONTRACTS/ HUGE SHORT COVERING BY OUR WRONG FOOTED SPECS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
APRIL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 40,182 CONTRACTS OR 4,018,200OZ OR 124.98 TONNES IN 10TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4018 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 10TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 124.98 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 124.98/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.52% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 124.98 TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 3809 CONTRACTS OI TO 178,881 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 450 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 450 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 450 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 4573 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 450 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4259CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 21.295 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.77 PTS OR .49% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 373.34 PTS OR 2.18% / Nikkei CLOSED UP 80.92 PTS OR 0.21% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.30%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.2372 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2623 /Oil UP TO 86.07 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 90.69/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A MEGA HUMONGOUS 17,676 CONTRACTS TO 523,620 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $25.30 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY TRADING. WE HAD STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AS WELL AS SHORTS ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO GET OUT OF THEIR NAKED SHORTS.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 5238 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 5238 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5238CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED TOTAL OF 23,257 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5238 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 17,676 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUGE GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $25.30 THURSDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS A GOOD SIZED 2733 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (44.320 TONNES) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 44.320 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $25.30 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 22.914 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE 0F $25.30.
WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF THURSDAY’S TRADING ALONG. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 73.359 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL. (44.8615 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 23200 OZ (0.9269 TONNES)//NEW STANDING; 44.320 TONNES
NEW STANDING: 44.320 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $25.30
WE HAD REMOVED 343 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 22,914 CONTRACTS OR 2,291,400 (71.272 TONNES)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
13,951 notices 1,395,100 oz 43.393 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 0
total customer withdrawal: nil oz
we had total deposit 0 oz
Adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL.
For the front month of APRIL we have an oi of 570 contracts having GAINED 62 contracts. We had 170 contracts served on THURSDAY, so we GAINED 232 contracts or an additional 23,200 oz (0.9269 tonnes) will stand at the comex
MAY GAINED 187 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 2004
JUNE INCREASED ITS OI BY 9686 CONTRACTS UP TO 431,917 CONTRACTS.
We had 272 contracts filed for today representing 27,200 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 20 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 272 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (13,951 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (570 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 272 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,424,900 OZ OR 44.320 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL. contract month: No of notices filed so far (13,951) x 100 oz + (570) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (272) x 100 oz which equals 1,42490 oz (44.320 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL: 44.320 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,582,172.588 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,531,079.537 (234.24 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,051,093.031 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,901,683 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 183.56 tonnes/dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
APRIL 12
INITIAL
//2024// THE APRIL 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
954,051.350 oz
Brinks asahI Delaware
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,777122.220 oz
CNT HSBC JPM
No of oz served today (contracts)
421 CONTRACT(S) (2,105,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
124 contracts (620,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
1152 Contracts (5,760,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit :nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 3 deposits customer account:
i) Into HSBC 600,399.150 oz
ii) Into CNT 599,073.889 oz
iiii) Into JPMorgan 577,649.221 oz
total customer deposits 1777,122.220 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 130.383 million oz/291.756 million or 44.52%
adjustment: 0
Comex withdrawals: 3
i) Out of Brinks 353,862.480 oz
ii) Out of ASAHI 597,228.400 oz
iii) Out of Delaware 2960.502 oz
total withdrawal: 954,051.380 oz oz
adjustment: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 46.766MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 291.756million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2023 OI: 545 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 274 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 159 CONTRACTS SERVED ON THURSDAY, SO WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS 433 CONTRACTS OR ADDITIONAL 2,165,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX UNDERGOING A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP
MAY SAW A LOSS OF 4086 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 91,847
JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 23 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 423
JULY SAW A GAIN OF 6863 CONTRACTS UP TO 64,251
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 421 for 2,105,000 oz
Comex volume: confirmed yesterday 186,897 wow!!.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1152 x 5,000 oz = 5,760,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (545) and the number of notices served upon today 421x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL/2024 contract month: 1152 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL. (545) – number of notices served upon today (421 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month equates to 6.380 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 6.380 million oz.
There are 46.756 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
APRIL 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISESS AT 830.75 TONNES
APRIL 11 WITH GOLD UP $25.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.25 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLSS AT 828.46 TONNES
APRIL 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 828.71 TONNES
APRIL 9 WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 827,85 TONNES
APRIL 8 WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 826.41 TONNES
APRIL 5 WITH GOLD UP $38.65 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 832.45 TONNES
APRIL 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $3.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.73 TONNES
APRIL 3 WITH GOLD UP $33,85 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // INVENTORY REMAINS AT 829.00 TONNES
APRIL 2 WITH GOLD UP $23.90 TODAY; HUG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITH DRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 829.00 TONNES
APRIL 1 WITH GOLD UP $18.70 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 28 WITH GOLD UP $26.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 27 WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY FALLS TO 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 26 WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 835.33 TONNES
MARCH 25 WITH GOLD UP $17.05 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 838.50 TONNES
MARCH 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.75 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 838.50 TONNES
MARCH 21 WITH GOLD UP $24.80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:INVENTORY RISES TO 838.50 TONNES
MARCH 20 WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:INVENTORY RISES TO 837.35 TONNES
MARCH 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:INVENTORY RISES TO 833.32 TONNES
MARCH 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $5.20 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY REMAINS AT 816.86 TONNES
MARCH 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY REMAINS AT 816.86 TONNES
MARCH 13 WITH GOLD UP $14.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY REMAINS AT 815.13 TONNES
MARCH 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $21.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:NOT AVAILABLE///LAST VALUE 815.13 TONNES
MARCH 11 WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD AFTER 7 CONSECUTIVE GOLD PRICE RISES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 815.13 TONNES
MARCH 8 WITH GOLD UP $21.05 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD AFTER 7 CONSECUTIVE GOLD PRICE RISES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 816.57 TONNES
MARCH 7 WITH GOLD UP $7.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4,20 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 817.44 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 830.75 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.069 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.23 TODAY: STRANGE INDEED! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.931 MILLION OZ :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.998 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10/WITH SILVER UP $0.04 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP $0.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.549 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.33 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.320 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.328 MILLION OZ
APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP $0.61 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.748 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 4/WITH SILVER UP $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.671 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.312 MILLION OZ
APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.14 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.835 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.641 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 84 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 6.721 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.806 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.085 MILLION OZ
MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.085 MILLION OZ
MARCH 27/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A A DEPOSIT OF 1.691 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.079 MILLION OZ
MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A A DEPOSIT OF 0.366 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 421.388 MILLION OZ
MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.887 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 421.022 MILLION OZ
MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.1899 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.909 MILLION OZ
MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.560 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.720 MILLION OZ
MARCH 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 11.792 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.280 MILLION OZ
MARCH 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 11.792 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.280 MILLION OZ
MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.006 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 417.866 MILLION OZ
MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.872 MILLION OZ
MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.872 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.549 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.872 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 11/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.147 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.323 MILLION OZ…SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD!
MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.299 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 420.519 MILLION OZ…SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD!
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.665 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.818 MILLION OZ…SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD!
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.378 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427,105 MILLION OZ
MARCH 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.499 MILL;ION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.483 MILLION OZ
MARCH 4/WITH SILVER UP CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.982 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.982 MILLION OZ
FEB 29/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430/982 MILLION OZ
FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.123 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.086 MILLION OZ
FEB 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.64 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.943 MILLION OZ
FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.065 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.603 MILLION OZ
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.065 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.603 MILLION OZ
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV
// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.766 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.348 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.766 MILLION OZ
FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.385 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.008 MILLION OZ
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.235 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.393 MILLION OZ
FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 56 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 60 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.504 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.921 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.119 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 600,000 OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.040 MILLION OZ
FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ
FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.04 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ//LAST 9 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
CLOSING INVENTORY 433.929 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFFGOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
END
2.Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens/…
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA
After 150 years, UK returns looted artifacts to Ghana’s Asante king
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2024-04-11 16:54 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Kathryn Armstrong and Favour Nunoo British Broadcasting Corp., London Thursday, April 11, 2024
The UK has returned dozens of artefacts looted from what is today Ghana — more than 150 years after they were taken.
Some 32 gold and silver items have been sent on long-term loan to the country by the Victoria and Albert Museum and the British Museum.
They were stolen from the court of the Asante king, known as the Asantehene, during 19th-century conflicts between the British and powerful Asante people.
The objects are expected to be returned to the current king on Friday.
His chief negotiator, Ivor Agyeman-Duah, told the BBC that the objects are currently in “safe hands” in Ghana ahead of them being formally received.
gold rises to $2400.00//silver breaks 29.00 dollars
GODL! Precious Metal Soars Above $2,400 After Sudden Gap Higher
THURSDAY, APR 11, 2024 – 09:56 PM
Crypto bulls – at least those who didn’t betray their “laser eyes” PFP and sell previously – have had their day in the sun for the past 3 months as bitcoin and most other digital fiat alternatives soared, making it clear why, despite the difficult, it can be so very profitable to HODL, especially with the US is approaching the Minsky Moment of issuing $1 trillion in debt every 100 days, and interest on US debt, now at $1.1 trillion, is set to surpass Social Security spending and become the single largest government outlay before the end of the year.
Now that rate cuts are off the table, interest on US debt – currently the second biggest government outlay at $1.1 trillion – will surpass social security and become the single biggest US expense before the end of 2024 at $1.6 trillion.
·
244.9K Views
And now, it’s time for GODL!
Stupid jokes aside, while bitcoin was rampaging higher, goldbugs stared in disgust, wondering why their non-fiat god had forsaken them… after all, when the collapse of the dollar, and fiat in general, finally arrives gold will be one of the very few currency alternatives still standing. Alas, ETF flows have not provided any respite, because while bitcoin ETFs soaked up most money in the past 3 months, aggregate gold flows continued to shrink.
And yet, starting in the beginning of March, gold finally broke out from the black hole gravitational attraction of the Bank of International Settlements trading desk, and has soared some $300 dollars in just 6 weeks, its fastest ascent in decades.
Fast forward to tonight when, with most other assets quiet, gold suddenly surged higher, and after closing at an all time high, the precious metals spiked by another $15 in a matter of seconds, a move which for the otherwise hyperlethargic assets, is the equivalent of turbo boost.
And while it’s now just a matter of hours if not minutes, before spot rises above $2,400, gold futures are already there: the active, June contract just hit a new all time high of $2,406.9 moments ago around the time Chinese buy orders started rolling in…
… and contrary to speculation that this is just a fat finger, or a another one-off buy orders, gold future volumes are solid, especially given volumes would have already been very high in the last few days. GCM4 volumes are now 23.5k lots vs. 5-day average of 17.85k lots.
While it wasn’t clear what sparked the buying frenzy, UBS’ trading desk notes that “gold futures gapped up $10 as they traded through Thursday’s high on what felt like stop losses being triggered; 0.5moz of futures volume were behind the move.“
What happens next is also unclear, although as we showed moments before the breakout, the current divergence between gold prices and 10Y real rates, suggests that something awful is about to happen…
… a dismal outlook proposed last week by none other than BofA CIO Michael Hartnett, who in his latest Flow Show report noted that investors are looking beyond the “here and now”, realizing that there is no way markets or the economy can sustain 5% nominal and 2% real rates, and are hedging two things: i) the risk that the Fed cuts as CPI accelerates, and ii) and more ominously, the “endgame of Fed Interest Cost Control (“ICC”), Yield Curve Control (YCC) and QE to backstop US government spending.”
In short, something big is about to break, and if the surge in gold leads to a spike in yields, start the countdown to one of two things: i) QE and/or ii) YCC, because if the bond market sniffs out the endgame that gold is currently smelling, it will be up to Powell to once again prevent a catastrophic financial collapse.
For those wondering how far gold can rise, we excerpt from the latest note from BofA commodities strategist Michael Widmer (available to professional subscribers), who writes that…
Gold and silver are among our most preferred commodities, with the yellow metal pushed up by central banks, China investors and, increasingly, Western buyers on a confluence of macro factors, including an end to hiking cycles. Accordingly, we see the yellow metal rally to US$3,000/oz by 2025. Silver benefits from that too, with prices also boosted by stronger industrial demand. This could take prices above US$30/oz within the next 12 months.
And some charts.
And here is UBS, predicting that the price of the precious metal could double from here (note also available to pro subs):
The recent move in gold reminds me of a famous quote: “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” Looking at history, gold price can stay in the doldrums for a long time but when it does breakout, the surge is usually fast and furious. In deciding whether to chase or fade the recent gold rally, it might be useful to draw some inspiration from past breakout episodes. Here I define a “breakout” to be when the gold prices move 10% above the previous historical peak.
Should history repeat itself, it is not too late to participate in the current gold rally. An investor with a two to three-year view could expect to see gold potentially double from here to more than $4,000. The take-profit signal is when real rates turn negative and when there is a full-blown recession. Today with real rate still high and a recession seemingly faraway, it is too early to call the end of the ongoing gold rally. Gold breakout can be seen as an ominous signal, and it is not difficult to imagine a range of geopolitical risk scenarios. As for markets, many things look mispriced today with a two to three-year lookout, ranging from incredibly low credit spreads, elevated equity valuation to subdued volatility. It’s fair to say that the gold market has fired its warning shot.
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSFRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.2372
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2633
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.77 PTS OR .49%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 373.34 PTS OR 2.18%
2. Nikkei closed UP 80.72 OR 0.21%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 105.63 EURO FALLS TO 1.0656 DOWN 70 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.851Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 153.31/JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN/ OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.3830***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.734* /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.143…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.302
3j Gold at $2394.00 silver at: 28.97 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 17 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 93.49//
3m oil into the 86 dollar handle for WTI and 90 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 153.31// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.851% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9131 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9729 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.537 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.639 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.929 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.33…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 3 BASIS PTS AT 4.20000
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge
Futures Tumble On Disappointing JPM Earnings, Surging Geopolitical Risks
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, APR 12, 2024 – 09:01 AM
Futures are tumbling this morning, hit by disappointing earnings and outllook from the largest US bank, JPMorgan whose stock is down around 3% in a soggy launch to Q1 earnings season, while growing fears of an imminent conflict between Israel and Iran have sent oil surging and futures sliding. As of 8:45am, S&P futures are down 0.7%, at session lows with Nasdaq also dumping after reports China has asked its telecom carriers to start phasing out foreign chips. The drop comes as we see safe having flows move capital into TSYs with bond yields sliding up to 10bps this morning. That said, the USD is higher again with the euro and cable sliding sharply. Commodities are mixed: oil and gold rally amid Middle East tension; base metals are lower amid lower-than-expected China exports (-7.5% vs. -1.9% survey vs. 5.6% prior), while the gold explosion documented last night continues, with gold futures trading just above $2,400 and spot trading just below. Today, the main focus will be banks earnings (C, JPM, WFC). We will also receive Univ. of Mich. Sentiment data.
Bonds are bid also, 10Y -9bps…
In premarket trading, MegaCap tech are mostly lower: GOOG -45bp, TSLA -1.1%, while semis are lower amid headlines on China cutting American chip makers out of its telecoms systems (AMD -1.8%, INTC -1.7%, MU -94bp). Here are the most notable European movers:
Applied Digital shares drop 11% after the data-center developer reported third-quarter adjusted diluted loss per share that was more than analysts had expected. The company also missed on revenue.
Corteva shares slip 1.4% after a downgrade to neutral at JPMorgan, which says the agricultural products firm “has its work cut out” for it to reach its earnings guidance for 2024 amid falling crop chemicals prices.
Coupang shares rise 4.4% after the e-commerce company said it would raise its monthly fee for “Wow” membership for new clients by 58%, starting on Saturday, according to emailed statement.
DocuSign (DOCU US) shares gain 0.6% as UBS lifts its rating on the e-signature company to neutral from sell, with the stock now approaching fair value.
Gitlab (GTLB US) shares climb after an upgrade to outperform at Raymond James, which sees the application software company ultimately exceeding $750 million in revenue for fiscal year 2025.
Globe Life (GL US) shares are up 12%. The life insurance company said it intends to explore “all means of legal recourse against the parties responsible” after a short-seller report from Fuzzy Panda Research.
Intel and AMD shares fall after the Wall Street Journal reported that China has asked its telecom carriers to start phasing out foreign chips.
The biggest highlight in premarket trading, however, was JPMorgan which dropped as much as 4.4% in premarket after its outlook for full-year net interest income missed expectations. Citigroup Inc. gained after its first-quarter profit topped estimates. Contracts for the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, while those on the Nasdaq 100 slid 0.5% after tech stocks jumped 1.7% Thursday. BlackRock rose in premarket after the world’s largest money manager reported a record $10.5 trillion in client assets. Wells Fargo shares retraced a slump after a miss on NII in its first-quarter report. State Street Corp. gained after its earnings beat estimates.
Separately, attention is also focused on the growing conflict between Iran and Israel where moments ago we got the following flashing red headline which hammered futures to session lows:
*ISRAEL BRACING FOR POTENTIAL DIRECT ATTACK FROM IRAN IN DAYS
While there is nothing new there, we have heard that several times in the past few days, today the market is extra sensitive and it is sending oil surging, with WTI above $86 and Brent well into the $90.
European stocks were on course for their best day this month, with mining and energy shares leading gains amid a rally in oil and metals, however the gains have fizzled as geopol concerns emerge. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.6% after rising 1% earlier.
Earlier in the session, Asian equities slipped Friday with Hong Kong and South Korea leading the losses, as the region lacks positive momentum following a recent rebound. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.2% in its third straight day of declines, the longest falling streak since early February. Chinese technology stocks including Alibaba and Tencent, as well as South Korea’s Samsung Electronics, were among the biggest contributors to the drop.Hong Kong markets underperformed, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index retreating after entering a so-called technical bull market earlier this week. Sentiment has turned cautious after Chinese price data released Thursday underscored deflationary pressures, putting a dampener on budding optimism that the economy is recovering.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index rises 0.4% while the euro sank to the weakest level against the dollar in five months as prospects grow that the European Central Bank will start cutting rates in June, well before the Federal Reserve can begin easing because of stubborn US inflation. Markets are pricing three rate cuts in the euro zone this year and fewer than two by the Fed. The Swedish krona is the worst performer among the G-10 currencies, falling 0.8% versus the greenback after CPI rose less than expected in March.
Treasuries rise after a steep two-day fall, with US 10-year yields dropping 8bps to 4.50% after surging 22 basis points in the previous two sessions. Data Thursday showed US producer prices in March increased less than forecast, sparking relief after consumer-price growth exceeded forecasts the previous day. German 10-year yields fall 9bps after ECB’s Stournaras said it is time for the ECB to diverge from the Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped seven basis points. Strategists at Bank of America Corp. said a rare rally in both tech stocks and commodities, combined with a jump in bond yields, has echoes of periods when bubbles are forming. The unusual price moves are consistent with bets that interest rates will stay higher for longer while economic growth remains strong — a so-called no-landing scenario.
While that narrative is “correctly in vogue,” there’s also a risk of higher inflation and an increased cost of capital, the strategists led by Michael Hartnett wrote. The price action is “typical of bubbly markets,” according to Hartnett, who makes a comparison with the pre-tech bubble period of 1999.
In commodities, WTI rises 2% to trade near $87 a barrel; spot gold rises 0.9% having earlier topped $2,400/oz for the first time while copper rises 2.3% to the highest since June 2022. Iron ore headed for its best week in two years on speculation that China’s economy may be on the mend, buoying the outlook for demand. A rally in industrial metals strengthened, with zinc rising to a one-year high on increased risks to supply.
To the day ahead now, and the Bank of England will release the Bernanke review on forecasting. Central bank speakers include the BoE’s Greene, the ECB’s Elderson, and the Fed’s Collins, Schmid, Bostic and Daly. Data releases include the UK GDP reading for February, and in the US there’s the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for April. Finally, earnings releases include JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and BlackRock.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.7% at 5,207
STOXX Europe 600 up 1.2% to 510.39
MXAP down 0.5% to 175.54
MXAPJ down 1.0% to 536.11
Nikkei up 0.2% to 39,523.55
Topix up 0.5% to 2,759.64
Hang Seng Index down 2.2% to 16,721.69
Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,019.47
Sensex down 0.9% to 74,399.41
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,788.08
Kospi down 0.9% to 2,681.82
Brent Futures up 1.2% to $91.36/bbl
Gold spot up 1.0% to $2,396.87
US Dollar Index up 0.35% to 105.65
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.38%
Euro down 0.4% to $1.0678
Top Overnight News
China posts weak trade numbers for Mar, with exports slumping 7.5% Y/Y (vs. the Street -1.9%) while imports dip 1.9% (vs. the Street +1%). RTRS
China’s push to replace foreign technology is now focused on cutting American chip makers out of the country’s telecoms systems. Officials earlier this year directed the nation’s largest telecom carriers to phase out foreign processors that are core to their networks by 2027, a move that would hit American chip giants Intel and Advanced Micro Devices. WSJ
Japan’s finance minister reiterated his readiness to act on excessive FX moves as the yen held near a 34-year low. Intervention will probably happen outside Tokyo trading hours to weed out overseas speculators. BBG
Israel is preparing for a direct attack from Iran on southern or northern Israel as soon as Friday or Saturday, according to a person familiar with the matter. A person briefed by the Iranian leadership, however, said that while plans to attack are being discussed, no final decision has been made. WSJ
The IEA trimmed its forecast for 2024 oil demand growth on Friday, citing lower than expected consumption in OECD countries and a slump in factory activity. The Paris-based energy watchdog lowered its growth outlook for this year by 130,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.2 million bpd, adding that the release of pent-up demand by top oil importer China after easing COVID-19 curbs had run its course. RTRS
The US has proposed raising tens of billions of euros in debt for Ukraine secured against the future profits generated by Russian state assets that have been frozen by western countries. The G7 group of nations has been split on what to do with €260bn worth of Russian assets put on hold by the west since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. FT
Big bank earnings kick off with net interest income in focus as fewer rate cuts are expected. JPMorgan is attracting most speculation over whether it will raise NII guidance — which analysts argue is conservative at $90 billion. Adjustments for Wells Fargo and Citi will also be scrutinized. BBG
Roaring equity markets and the popularity of a new spot bitcoin exchange traded fund powered BlackRock to record assets under management of $10.5tn and net income of $1.57bn that was up 36 per cent year on year. FT
KKR, one of the pioneers of the $15tn private capital industry, is hastening plans to sell large investments or take them public after higher interest rates caused a two-year slowdown in takeovers and initial public offerings. FT
Sweden’s underlying inflation rate fell more than expected in March, fueling expectations for the Riksbank to start cutting interest rates ahead of major peers next month. A closely followed measure that strips out energy costs and the effect of interest-rate changes increased 2.9% from a year ago, a 26-month low, according to a statement from Statistics Sweden. That was less than the 3.2% expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg as well as the 3.3% that the Riksbank projected. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed despite the gains on Wall St where softer-than-expected PPI eased some inflationary fears, while participants in the region were also cautious as they awaited the latest Chinese trade data. ASX 200 marginally declined as weakness in consumer-related sectors overshadowed the gains in gold miners. Nikkei 225 was underpinned on the back of a weaker currency and despite the selling pressure in Fast Retailing. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were somewhat varied with underperformance in Hong Kong amid broad selling after the local benchmark index pulled back from the 17,000 level, while the mainland struggled for direction leading into the Chinese trade data.
Top Asian News
US Senate Banking Committee Chair Brown urged for President Biden to permanently ban EVs produced by Chinese companies, according to a letter cited by Reuters.
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said a weak yen has pros and cons, as well as noted that a weak yen could push up import prices and have a negative impact on consumers and firms. Suzuki reiterated that rapid FX moves are undesirable and that he is closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency, while he also repeated it is desirable for FX to move stably reflecting fundamentals and he won’t rule out any steps to respond to disorderly FX moves.
Bank of Korea kept its base rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected, with the decision made unanimously, while it stated that it is premature to be confident that inflation will converge on the target level and it will maintain a restrictive policy stance for a sufficient period. BoK said it would monitor various factors including inflation slowdown, as well as financial stability and economic growth risks but noted the growth forecast is to be consistent with its earlier forecast or could be higher. BoK Governor Rhee said one in seven board members said the door for a rate cut should be open for the next three months and all 7 members said it is hard to predict policy decisions for H2. Furthermore, Rhee said the board is open to a rate cut if CPI slows in H2 although rate cuts might be difficult this year should inflation remain sticky and they have not signalled for a rate cut.
Monetary Authority of Singapore maintained the width, centre and slope of the SGD NEER policy band, as expected. MAS said current monetary policy settings remain appropriate, while it added that the Singapore economy is expected to strengthen and that prospects for the Singapore economy should improve over the course of 2024.
Chinese Cabinet issues guidelines to strengthen the supervision and prevent risks to promote development of its capital market; China to tighten supervision of stock market to control risks.
Chinese Cabinet issues guidelines to strengthen the supervision and prevent risks to promote development of its capital market; China to tighten supervision of stock market to control risks.
China March Trade (USD): Balance 58.55bln (exp. 70.2bln); Exports -7.5% Y/Y (exp. -2.3%); Imports -1.9% Y/Y (exp. -2.3%).
China’s Securities Regulator is proposing stricted differentiated regulatory requirements for high-frequency trading, plans to moderately increase requirements of operating income, net profit for Co’s listed on Chinext.
European bourses, Stoxx600 (+1.1%), jumped higher at the open and continued to make session highs as the morning progressed, though upward momentum has slowed in recent trade as we await US bank earnings. European sectors are firmer across the board; Once again Basic Resources and Energy top the pile, lifted by gains in the commodities complex. Optimised Personal Care is found at the foot of the pile. US Equity Futures (ES U/C, NQ -0.1%, RTY U/C) are trading on either side of the unchanged mark, seemingly taking a breather following strong Stateside performance in the prior session; Intel (-1.8%) and AMD (-1.9%) pressured in the pre-market on China-related reports via the WSJ.
Top European News
ECB’s Kazaks says they will cut in June if nothing surprising occurs, via TV3; data will be clearer by then. Wage growth remains strong but inflation has decreased. The time for a cut is approaching.
ECB’s Stournaras says now is the time to diverge from the Fed; reiterates call for four rate cuts this year; there is a risk inflation will undershoot 2%.
Riksbank’s Breman says inflation has fallen from high levels but the risk of setbacks remains. Key factor is that household inflation expectations remain at a high level. Today’s inflation figure shows we have a positive ground for inflation stabilising at 2%. Believe that household inflation expectations will also fall in the future as price increases slow; Co. pricing behaviour will be key.
Goldman Sachs expects the ECB to cut rates four times this year in June, July, September & December
FX
USD is stronger vs. most peers as Wednesday’s CPI report has prompted a reassessment of the Fed’s position vs. other major central banks in the easing cycle. Interim resistance comes via the 13th Nov high at 105.95 but broader focus is on a breach of 106 to the upside.
EUR’s descent vs. the Greenback has continued into today’s session as emphasis on potential diverging Fed/ECB paths guides price action. EUR/USD hit a new YTD at 1.0676.
GBP initially defended the 1.25 mark, before succumbing to the broader Dollar strength; An in-line UK GDP release has been vastly overshadowed by a broad reassessment of the relative BoE/Fed paths. GBP entered 2024 on the front foot amid expectations it would lag the Fed and ECB in cutting rates.
JPY is holding up better than peers vs. the USD. Albeit, it has been a pretty painful week for the JPY following Wednesday’s US CPI print which launched the pair from a 151 handle to 153+.
Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD to similar degrees amid light newsflow for both currencies. AUD/USD is below its 50 and 200DMAs at 0.6543 but holding above the weekly low at 0.6498.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0967 vs exp. 7.2365 (prev. 7.0968).
Fixed Income
USTs off lows with newsflow light into a number of Fed speakers. USTs have bounced by around 10 ticks from today’s 108-00+ base, but remain much closer to the week’s trough of 107-27+ than the 109-26+ peak.
Bunds are bid as markets digest the ECB’s read-between-the-lines guidance towards a June cut with sources and ECB speakers since outlining this more explicitly, guidance which contrasts with hawkish Fed re-pricing. Bunds have been lifted back towards this week’s 132.86 peak, currently 132.44, whilst the German 10yr yield sits comfortably below 2.40%.
Gilts gapped higher by around 30 ticks given the above EGB action, and remained near session highs at around 97.87. A slightly stronger UK GDP print will give the BoE scope to continue to traverse the Table Mountain; Bernanke forecast review due shortly.
Commodities
Crude is firmer on the session, given the heightened geopolitical environment and despite the firmer Dollar. Brent June trades within a USD 90.04-64/bbl parameter thus far.
Precious metals are surging across the board despite the rise in the Dollar with the geopolitical landscape underpinning the havens ahead of weekend risk and a potential Iranian offensive against Israel; XAU tested USD 2,400/oz to the upside at fresh ATHs.
Base metals are also soaring despite the stronger Dollar and downbeat headline Chinese trade data, with the internals revealing a Y/Y increase in copper imports.
Shanghai Gold Exchange will raise margin requirements for some gold futures contracts to 9% from 8% effective from the settlement on April 15th and will raise daily trading limits for some gold futures contracts to 8% from 7%.
MMG ‘s (1208 HK) Las Bambas copper mine in Peru and protestors reached a deal on lifting the road blockade near the mine, according to sources cited by Reuters.
Japanese aluminium premiums for April-June shipments at USD 145-148/T, +61-64%, via Reuters citing sources.
IEA OMR: World oil demand growth forecast -130k BPD to 1.2mln BPD; 2025 demand growth seen at 1.1mln due to sub-par economic outlook; China’s 2023 post-COVID release of pent-up demand has effectively run its course. Sustained output curbs by the OPEC+ alliance mean that non-OPEC+ producers, led by the Americas, will continue to drive world oil supply growth through 2025. Robust production from non-OPEC+ coupled with a projected slowdown in demand growth will lower the call on OPEC+ crude by roughly 300 kb/d in 2025.
Geopolitics: Middle East
“The (Israeli) army and the Mossad approved plans to target the heart of Iran if Israel (is) bombed from inside Iranian territory”, via Al Jazeera citing Yedioth Ahronoth.
Hamas sources: “The organization’s leadership informed the mediators that it is not interested in further discussions about the deal, as long as there is no progress in its demands…”, according to journalist Kais citing Hezbollah-affiliated press.
“US official to Al-Arabiya: We will participate in the response if Iran escalates with an appropriate response”, according to Al Arabiya
Israel is prepared for an Iranian strike from its territory in the next 48 hours, according to WSJ. Israeli army said Iran is preparing its proxies in the region to attack them, according to Al Arabiya.
Israeli Defence Minister Gallant told US Defense Secretary Austin that a direct Iranian attack on Israeli territory would compel Israel to respond in an appropriate way against Iran, according to Axios.
Iran reportedly signalled to Washington it will respond to Israel’s attack on its Syrian embassy in a way that aims to avoid major escalation and it will not act hastily, according to Reuters citing Iranian sources. Furthermore, a source familiar with US intelligence was not aware of the message conveyed but said Iran has been very clear its response would be controlled and non-escalatory, and planned to use regional proxies to launch a number of attacks on Israel.
US President Biden’s administration officials judge that Iran is planning a larger-than-usual aerial attack on Israel in the coming days which will likely feature a mix of missiles and drone strikes, according to two US officials cited by Politico.
US official said the US expects an attack by Iran against Israel which they think will be calibrated to be bigger than usual but not so big it would draw the US into war, while US officials have also been in touch with regional partners to discuss efforts to manage and ultimately reduce further risks of escalation.
US said it had restricted its employees in Israel and their family members from personal travel outside the greater Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Be’er Sheva areas amid Iran’s threats of retaliation against Israel.
US State Department senior official said a robust conversation with Iraq is likely to lead to a second US-Iraq joint security cooperation dialogue later this year.
Geopolitics: Other
US President Biden warned that any attack on Philippine vessels in the South China Sea would invoke their mutual defence treaty.
China’s top legislator Zhao Leji and North Korean counterpart discussed promoting exchange and cooperation in all fields, according to KCNA.
Four drones shot down overnight near Russia’s Novoshakhtinsk in a town in near proximity to an oil refinery
US Event Calendar
08:30: March Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
08:30: March Import Price Index ex Petroleu, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%
08:30: March Import Price Index YoY, est. 0.3%, prior -0.8%
08:30: March Export Price Index YoY, est. -1.2%, prior -1.8%
08:30: March Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.8%
10:00: April U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 2.8%, prior 2.8%
10:00: April U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 78.0, prior 77.4
10:00: April U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 81.3, prior 82.5
10:00: April U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 2.9%, prior 2.9%
10:00: April U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 79.0, prior 79.4
Central Bank Speakers
09:00: Fed’s Collins Appears on Bloomberg TV
13:00: Fed’s Schmid Gives Speech on Economic Outlook
14:30: Fed’s Bostic Gives Speech on Housing
15:30: Fed’s Daly Participates in Fireside Chat
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
It’s been a volatile 24 hours in markets, with bonds continuing to struggle thanks to concerns about inflation, whilst equities saw a tech-led rebound that meant the NASDAQ (+1.68%) closed at an all-time high. To be fair, front-end yields did stabilise after Wednesday’s dramatic selloff, as the US PPI release was softer than many feared, and the ECB added to the signals that they might cut rates at the next meeting. But ultimately, the big picture is that inflation is still proving more resilient than expected, whilst the chance of a Fed rate cut in H1 is seen as increasingly remote. Alongside that, several geopolitical concerns remain in the background, and gold prices (+1.65%) closed at a record high yesterday of $2,372/oz.
With that in mind, yesterday brought another bond selloff on both sides of the Atlantic, and 10yr yields across several countries hit their highest level since late-2023. In the US, the 10yr yield was up +4.3bps to 4.59%, which is its highest level since November, although overnight there’s been a -1.6bps pullback to 4.57%. This was driven by a fresh rise in real yields, with the 10yr real yield (+4.8bps) also up to a post-November high of 2.18%. Meanwhile at the front end, yesterday saw a modest decline in the 2yr yield (-1.2bps) to 4.96%, but that comes in the context of a +23bps increase the previous day, leaving it up by more than +20bps relative to its pre-CPI levels.
That pullback in front-end yields was in large part down to the PPI inflation print for March, with the 2yr yield having momentarily traded at 5% immediately before the release. That showed headline PPI at +0.2% on a monthly basis (vs. +0.3% expected), which meant the year-on-year measure rose to +2.1% (vs. +2.2% expected). Although it was only slightly beneath expectations, monthly moves in PPI components that feed into core PCE inflation came in on the weaker side, including airfares (-1.8%) and healthcare services (0.0%). So a big relief to investors after the upside surprise in CPI the previous day. It also meant futures raised the chance the Fed would still cut rates by July, which moved up from a 50% to a 56% chance after yesterday’s session, with a further rise this morning to 58%.
When it came to Fed officials themselves, their remarks yesterday signalled they weren’t in a hurry to cut rates. For instance, New York Fed President Williams said “There’s no clear need to adjust policy in the very near term”. Meanwhile, Boston Fed President Collins said that the recent data “implies that less easing of policy this year than previously thought may be warranted.” And Richmond Fed President Barkin said that “We’re not yet where we want to be” when it came to inflation.
In light of recent developments, DB’s US economists have now materially adjusted their Fed view for this year. They now only expect one rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, followed by modest further reductions in 2025. Beyond that, they expect the Fed to guide the policy rate back towards a neutral level, that is likely just below 4% by the end of 2026. And although a rate cut in July is still possible, their view is that it would need a string of more favourable inflation prints than they forecast, as well as some softening in the labour market and tightening in financial conditions. See the report here for more details on their latest forecast.
Speaking of central banks, we had the latest ECB decision earlier in the day, who left their deposit rate at 4% as expected. However, their statement suggested that they were moving closer to rate cuts, as it said “If the Governing Council’s updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase its confidence that inflation is converging to the target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction.” So a clear signpost that rate cuts could be near, and investors raised the chance of a cut by the June meeting from 82% to 87% by the close. Our European economists see the ECB as having a clear but conditional baseline of a June cut, while keeping its options open beyond this. They note that Lagarde’s expression of a “dialling down cycle” may be more consistent with gradual rate cuts. See their reaction note here for more.
The ECB’s decision helped to bring down 2yr yields on German (-0.4bps) and French (-0.6bps) government bonds. However, at the long end it was a different story, and yields moved noticeably higher across the continent, including on 10yr bunds (+2.8bps), OATs (+3.6bps) and BTPs (+6.8bps). Meanwhile for gilts, the 10yr yield (+5.5bps) closed at a post-November high of 4.20%. That came as investors continued to dial back the chance of a Bank of England rate cut by June, with overnight index swaps lowering the probability from 56% to 41% by the close. That followed comments from the BoE’s Greene in the FT we mentioned yesterday, who said that UK rate cuts “should still be a way off”.
Although bonds continued to sell off, a renewed tech rally saw equities recover in the latter half of the US session ahead of the earnings season kicking off in full today. The S&P 500 advanced +0.74%, with the NASDAQ (+1.68%) and the Magnificent 7 (+2.25%) strongly outperforming and closing at new all-time highs. All of the Magnificent 7 posted gains, with Apple (+4.33%) leading the way amid news that it plans to overhaul its line of Macs with new AI-focused chips. However, equity gains were limited outside tech, with more than half of S&P 500 constituents actually down on the day. And earlier in the day Europe saw fresh losses, with the STOXX 600 (-0.40%), the DAX (-0.79%) and the CAC 40 (-0.27%) all falling back. That came as European natural gas futures (+8.40%) rose following Russian attacks on energy facilities in Ukraine, including those for natural gas storage.
Overnight in Asia, most of the major equity indices have lost ground this morning, with losses for the Hang Seng (-1.73%), the CSI 300 (-0.28%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.04%) and the KOSPI (-0.80%). Japanese equities have been the main exception however, where the Nikkei is up +0.33%. And looking forward, US equity futures are slightly higher, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.05%. Elsewhere in Asia, the Bank of Korea kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.5%, marking its 10th consecutive decision to hold since it last hiked in January 2023.
To the day ahead now, and the Bank of England will release the Bernanke review on forecasting. Central bank speakers include the BoE’s Greene, the ECB’s Elderson, and the Fed’s Collins, Schmid, Bostic and Daly. Data releases include the UK GDP reading for February, and in the US there’s the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for April. Finally, earnings releases include JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and BlackRock.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Stateside futures tentative ahead of US bank earnings, DXY bid and Bunds outperform; Fed speak due – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, APR 12, 2024 – 05:52 AM
European bourses are entirely in the green, Stateside futures are contained on either side of the unchanged mark
Dollar is bid which has weighed on G10 peers, with EUR down to 1.0657
Fixed complex higher with Bunds outperforming as markets digest Thursday’s ECB announcement and Fed divergence
Crude is bid given the heightened geopolitical environment, XAU makes record highs
Looking ahead, Uni. of Michigan (Prelim.), BoE Forecast Review, Fed’s Collins, Schmid, Bostic & Daly, Earnings from Wells Fargo, JNJ & Citi
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx600 (+1.1%), jumped higher at the open and continued to make session highs as the morning progressed, though upward momentum has slowed in recent trade as we await US bank earnings.
European sectors are firmer across the board; Once again Basic Resources and Energy top the pile, lifted by gains in the commodities complex. Optimised Personal Care is found at the foot of the pile.
US Equity Futures (ES U/C, NQ -0.1%, RTY U/C) are trading on either side of the unchanged mark, seemingly taking a breather following strong Stateside performance in the prior session; Intel (-1.8%) and AMD (-1.9%) pressured in the pre-market on China-related reports via the WSJ.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
USD is stronger vs. most peers as Wednesday’s CPI report has prompted a reassessment of the Fed’s position vs. other major central banks in the easing cycle. Interim resistance comes via the 13th Nov high at 105.95 but broader focus is on a breach of 106 to the upside.
EUR’s descent vs. the Greenback has continued into today’s session as emphasis on potential diverging Fed/ECB paths guides price action. EUR/USD hit a new YTD at 1.0676.
GBP initially defended the 1.25 mark, before succumbing to the broader Dollar strength; An in-line UK GDP release has been vastly overshadowed by a broad reassessment of the relative BoE/Fed paths. GBP entered 2024 on the front foot amid expectations it would lag the Fed and ECB in cutting rates.
JPY is holding up better than peers vs. the USD. Albeit, it has been a pretty painful week for the JPY following Wednesday’s US CPI print which launched the pair from a 151 handle to 153+.
Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD to similar degrees amid light newsflow for both currencies. AUD/USD is below its 50 and 200DMAs at 0.6543 but holding above the weekly low at 0.6498.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0967 vs exp. 7.2365 (prev. 7.0968).
USTs off lows with newsflow light into a number of Fed speakers. USTs have bounced by around 10 ticks from today’s 108-00+ base, but remain much closer to the week’s trough of 107-27+ than the 109-26+ peak.
Bunds are bid as markets digest the ECB’s read-between-the-lines guidance towards a June cut with sources and ECB speakers since outlining this more explicitly, guidance which contrasts with hawkish Fed re-pricing. Bunds have been lifted back towards this week’s 132.86 peak, currently 132.44, whilst the German 10yr yield sits comfortably below 2.40%.
Gilts gapped higher by around 30 ticks given the above EGB action, and remained near session highs at around 97.87. A slightly stronger UK GDP print will give the BoE scope to continue to traverse the Table Mountain; Bernanke forecast review due shortly.
Crude is firmer on the session, given the heightened geopolitical environment and despite the firmer Dollar. Brent June trades within a USD 90.04-64/bbl parameter thus far.
Precious metals are surging across the board despite the rise in the Dollar with the geopolitical landscape underpinning the havens ahead of weekend risk and a potential Iranian offensive against Israel; XAU tested USD 2,400/oz to the upside at fresh ATHs.
Base metals are also soaring despite the stronger Dollar and downbeat headline Chinese trade data, with the internals revealing a Y/Y increase in copper imports.
Shanghai Gold Exchange will raise margin requirements for some gold futures contracts to 9% from 8% effective from the settlement on April 15th and will raise daily trading limits for some gold futures contracts to 8% from 7%.
MMG ‘s (1208 HK) Las Bambas copper mine in Peru and protestors reached a deal on lifting the road blockade near the mine, according to sources cited by Reuters.
Japanese aluminium premiums for April-June shipments at USD 145-148/T, +61-64%, via Reuters citing sources.
IEA OMR: World oil demand growth forecast -130k BPD to 1.2mln BPD; 2025 demand growth seen at 1.1mln due to sub-par economic outlook; China’s 2023 post-COVID release of pent-up demand has effectively run its course. Sustained output curbs by the OPEC+ alliance mean that non-OPEC+ producers, led by the Americas, will continue to drive world oil supply growth through 2025. Robust production from non-OPEC+ coupled with a projected slowdown in demand growth will lower the call on OPEC+ crude by roughly 300 kb/d in 2025.
ECB’s Kazaks says they will cut in June if nothing surprising occurs, via TV3; data will be clearer by then. Wage growth remains strong but inflation has decreased. The time for a cut is approaching.
ECB’s Stournaras says now is the time to diverge from the Fed; reiterates call for four rate cuts this year; there is a risk inflation will undershoot 2%.
Riksbank’s Breman says inflation has fallen from high levels but the risk of setbacks remains. Key factor is that household inflation expectations remain at a high level. Today’s inflation figure shows we have a positive ground for inflation stabilising at 2%. Believe that household inflation expectations will also fall in the future as price increases slow; Co. pricing behaviour will be key.
Goldman Sachs expects the ECB to cut rates four times this year in June, July, September & December
DATA RECAP
UK GDP Estimate MM (Feb) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.10% (Prev. 0.20%, Rev. 0.3%); YY -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.40% (Prev. -0.30%); 3M/3M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.10% (Prev. -0.10%). Click here for more details.
Swedish CPIF Ex Energy YY (Mar) 2.9% vs. Exp. 3.20% (Prev. 3.50%); click here for more details.
French CPI (EU Norm) Final YY (Mar) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.4%); CPI (EU Norm) Final MM (Mar) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
Spanish HICP Final MM (Mar) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.3%); CPI YY Final NSA (Mar) 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.2%); CPI MM Final NSA (Mar) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.8%); HICP Final YY (Mar) 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.2%)
Italian Industrial Sales YY WDA (Jan) 3.0% (Prev. -0.1%); Industrial Sales MM SA (Jan) -0.5% (Prev. 2.1%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
BofA and Deutsche Bank expect only one interest rate cut by the Fed this year in December, while HSBC expects 75bps of rate cuts by the Fed in 2024 and for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates by 25bps in June.
China has reportedly told telecom carriers to phase out foreign chips which are core to their networks by 2027, in a blow to Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD), according to WSJ citing sources.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST – EUROPEAN MORNING
“The (Israeli) army and the Mossad approved plans to target the heart of Iran if Israel (is) bombed from inside Iranian territory”, via Al Jazeera citing Yedioth Ahronoth.
Hamas sources: “The organization’s leadership informed the mediators that it is not interested in further discussions about the deal, as long as there is no progress in its demands…”, according to journalist Kais citing Hezbollah-affiliated press.
“US official to Al-Arabiya: We will participate in the response if Iran escalates with an appropriate response”, according to Al Arabiya
MIDDLE EAST
Israel is prepared for an Iranian strike from its territory in the next 48 hours, according to WSJ. Israeli army said Iran is preparing its proxies in the region to attack them, according to Al Arabiya.
Israeli Defence Minister Gallant told US Defense Secretary Austin that a direct Iranian attack on Israeli territory would compel Israel to respond in an appropriate way against Iran, according to Axios.
Iran reportedly signalled to Washington it will respond to Israel’s attack on its Syrian embassy in a way that aims to avoid major escalation and it will not act hastily, according to Reuters citing Iranian sources. Furthermore, a source familiar with US intelligence was not aware of the message conveyed but said Iran has been very clear its response would be controlled and non-escalatory, and planned to use regional proxies to launch a number of attacks on Israel.
US President Biden’s administration officials judge that Iran is planning a larger-than-usual aerial attack on Israel in the coming days which will likely feature a mix of missiles and drone strikes, according to two US officials cited by Politico.
US official said the US expects an attack by Iran against Israel which they think will be calibrated to be bigger than usual but not so big it would draw the US into war, while US officials have also been in touch with regional partners to discuss efforts to manage and ultimately reduce further risks of escalation.
US said it had restricted its employees in Israel and their family members from personal travel outside the greater Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Be’er Sheva areas amid Iran’s threats of retaliation against Israel.
US State Department senior official said a robust conversation with Iraq is likely to lead to a second US-Iraq joint security cooperation dialogue later this year.
OTHER
US President Biden warned that any attack on Philippine vessels in the South China Sea would invoke their mutual defence treaty.
China’s top legislator Zhao Leji and North Korean counterpart discussed promoting exchange and cooperation in all fields, according to KCNA.
Four drones shot down overnight near Russia’s Novoshakhtinsk in a town in near proximity to an oil refinery
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is incrementally firmer and holds just above USD 70K.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mixed despite the gains on Wall St where softer-than-expected PPI eased some inflationary fears, while participants in the region were also cautious as they awaited the latest Chinese trade data.
ASX 200 marginally declined as weakness in consumer-related sectors overshadowed the gains in gold miners.
Nikkei 225 was underpinned on the back of a weaker currency and despite the selling pressure in Fast Retailing.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were somewhat varied with underperformance in Hong Kong amid broad selling after the local benchmark index pulled back from the 17,000 level, while the mainland struggled for direction leading into the Chinese trade data.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
US Senate Banking Committee Chair Brown urged for President Biden to permanently ban EVs produced by Chinese companies, according to a letter cited by Reuters.
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said a weak yen has pros and cons, as well as noted that a weak yen could push up import prices and have a negative impact on consumers and firms. Suzuki reiterated that rapid FX moves are undesirable and that he is closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency, while he also repeated it is desirable for FX to move stably reflecting fundamentals and he won’t rule out any steps to respond to disorderly FX moves.
Bank of Korea kept its base rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected, with the decision made unanimously, while it stated that it is premature to be confident that inflation will converge on the target level and it will maintain a restrictive policy stance for a sufficient period. BoK said it would monitor various factors including inflation slowdown, as well as financial stability and economic growth risks but noted the growth forecast is to be consistent with its earlier forecast or could be higher. BoK Governor Rhee said one in seven board members said the door for a rate cut should be open for the next three months and all 7 members said it is hard to predict policy decisions for H2. Furthermore, Rhee said the board is open to a rate cut if CPI slows in H2 although rate cuts might be difficult this year should inflation remain sticky and they have not signalled for a rate cut.
Monetary Authority of Singapore maintained the width, centre and slope of the SGD NEER policy band, as expected. MAS said current monetary policy settings remain appropriate, while it added that the Singapore economy is expected to strengthen and that prospects for the Singapore economy should improve over the course of 2024.
Chinese Cabinet issues guidelines to strengthen the supervision and prevent risks to promote development of its capital market; China to tighten supervision of stock market to control risks.
Chinese Cabinet issues guidelines to strengthen the supervision and prevent risks to promote development of its capital market; China to tighten supervision of stock market to control risks.
China March Trade (USD): Balance 58.55bln (exp. 70.2bln); Exports -7.5% Y/Y (exp. -2.3%); Imports -1.9% Y/Y (exp. -2.3%).
China’s Securities Regulator is proposing stricted differentiated regulatory requirements for high-frequency trading, plans to moderately increase requirements of operating income, net profit for Co’s listed on Chinext.
DATA RECAP
Singapore GDP QQ (Q1 P) 0.1% vs Exp. 0.6% (prev. 1.2%); YY (Q1 P) 2.7% vs Exp. 2.9% (prev. 2.2%)
China March Trade (USD): Balance 58.55bln (exp. 70.2bln); Exports -7.5% Y/Y (exp. -2.3%); Imports -1.9% Y/Y (exp. -2.3%); click here for the breakdown.
3C ASIA AFFAIRS/
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.77 PTS OR .49% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 373.34 PTS OR 2.18% / Nikkei CLOSED UP 80.92 PTS OR 0.21% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.30%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.2372 //OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2623 /Oil UP TO 86.07 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 90.69/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA/JAPAN
With Japan’s yen cratering, we have now the prospect that the yuan will be devalued
(zerohedge)
China Exports Collapse, Prompting Yuan Devaluation Fears
FRIDAY, APR 12, 2024 – 01:00 PM
China’s export growth tumbled in March compared to last year, sparking questions about a possible yuan devaluation at a time when China’s biggest mercantilist competitor in Asia – Japan – has intentionally cratered its currency.
Chinese Exports declined by 7.5% from a year earlier in March to $279.7 billion, far was than the median estimate of a 1.9% drop and was in sharp contrast to the 7.1% growth in combined figures for January and February. It was dragged down due to a higher base in the same period last year, when China reported robust growth of 14.8% at $315.6 billion. Imports also slumped, sliding -1.9% yoy in March, and far below the Bloomberg consensus of a +1.0% increase.
In sequential terms, exports increased by +1.2% in March (vs. +3.5% in January-February), while imports decreased by 1.4% in March (vs. +0.8% in January-February).
With exports collapsing, China’s trade balance also slumped, dropping to just $58.6BN in March, far worse than the Bloomberg consensus of $69.1BN, and down from January-February average balance at US$62.6bn. Today’s release of trade data only covers major trading partners and products. The detailed breakdown of trade by country and by product will be released on April 20.
Some more highlights:
By major destination, export value fell sequentially across major trading partners except for ASEAN. The high bases last March drove year-over-year export growth deeply negative. Among major DM countries, exports to the US dropped by 15.9% yoy in March (vs. +2.6% yoy in January-February), and exports to the European Union declined by 14.9% yoy in March (vs. -2.3% yoy in January-February). Among major EM economies, exports to ASEAN fell by 6.3% yoy in March (vs. +0.1% yoy in January-February).
By major category and in sequential terms, exports of automobiles rose notably in March while exports of fertilizer and cellphones declined. On a year-over-year basis, export growth of tech-related products remained strong. Export of chips increased by 11.5% yoy in March (vs. +21.4% yoy in January-February) with +7.0% sequential growth (mom non-annualized sa). Export growth of housing-related products moderated notably in March: for example, exports of furniture dropped by 12.3% yoy in March (vs. +28.7% yoy in January-February).
Among major categories and in sequential terms, imports of natural gas and refined petrol rose in March while imports of machine tools and iron ore declined. For major commodities and on a year-over-year basis, import growth of metal ores remained solid in March while import growth of energy-related goods moderated. Specifically, import value of crude oil declined by 3.5% yoy in March (vs. +3.6% yoy in January-February) with import volume down 6.2% yoy (vs. +5.0% yoy in January-February). Import value of iron ore rose 7.5% yoy in March (vs. 33.0% yoy in January-February) with import volume up 0.5% yoy (vs. 7.9% yoy in January-February). On tech-related products, import growth of chips moderated significantly in March (+2.0% yoy in March vs. +14.4% yoy in January-February).
Last year, China experienced its first decline in export growth in seven years, with shipments dropping by 4.6% due to weak external demand. It created additional challenges amid Beijing’s efforts to revive the post-pandemic economy, as it was also grappling with an exodus of foreign investment, waning market confidence and potential trade barriers.
Meanwhile, as Bloomberg notes, the dismal trade numbers will only add to the worries over the world’s second-biggest economy, which bodes poorly for a yuan that’s been in retreat this year, which incidentally is just what Beijing wants since China desperately needs a weak currency to make its exports cheaper, which however is proving very difficult with the yen not only sliding to a record low against the yuan, but dropping below a key support level.
Dollar-yuan is being driven by the contrasting outlooks for central bank policy, along with the direction of USD/JPY.
Bloomberg’s conclusion here is that until there is official support for the yen – which seems unlikely even as the Japanese currency crater to a new record low every single day – or a shift back to expectations for early Fed interest rate cuts, “there isn’t much Chinese authorities can do about an outperforming US dollar. Especially as the PBOC is seen easing monetary policy again this year.” We disagree, especially because the PBOC is seen easing monetary policy: China can – and at this rate will have no choice but to – devalue the currency, and while so far it has been doing everything in its power to telegraph that it will defend the yuan and avoid a repeat of the record capital outflows from 2015, one day Beijing will shock everyone when it announced that the Yuan has lost 10% of its value overnight, and which point the surge in crypto and gold will truly shine.
The bottom line is that Beijing continues to be trapped: either keep the currency artificially “stable” and suffer continued trade loss to competitor Japan which is crushing its currency, or devalue the yuan and regain the mercantilist throne, however at the expense of massive capital outflows.
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
EUROPE
European parliament refuses to move on its budget until ukraine gets more patriot missiles form member states. Europe is now in a mess.
(zerohedge)
EU Parliament Refuses Decision On Budget Until Ukraine Gets More Patriots From Member States
FRIDAY, APR 12, 2024 – 05:45 AM
The latest intense Russian bombardment of Ukraine has resulted in the European Parliament taking the unprecedented decision to delay approval of the council budget until EU leaders get fully on board with approving additional Patriot air defense systems for Ukraine.
“What I find scandalous is that Europe, which is opening the door for Ukraine, and the European Council are not even capable in such an urgency to decide to send a number of anti-missile systems to Ukraine,” Guy Verhofstadt, a former Belgian Prime Minister, said in a fiery speech from the parliament floor.
The decision to refuse discharge of the EU Council’s budget was supported by 515 MEPs, with 62 voting against it—however, the effort will ultimately prove little more than symbolic and as but theatrics. European countries are still first and foremost worried about their dwindling defense stockpiles at home, especially as the specter of possible future major NATO-Russia war rises.
Russia’s overnight missile attacks, which reportedly included hypersonic missiles and drones sent against a number of power plants and natural gas facilities, resulted in a new urgent plea from President Volodymyr Zelensky, who post on X: “We need air defense systems and other defense assistance, not just turning a blind eye and having lengthy discussions.”
Russia’s President Putin on Thursday told national news agencies that Russia is obliged to strike Ukrainian energy sites in response to Kiev’s ongoing cross-border attacks against Russia’s own energy infrastructure. He also said these strikes on Ukraine’s energy sites aim to “demilitarize” the country.
MEP Verhofstadt’s appeal was met with applause in the European parliament session:
Verhofstadt reminded that the EU’s chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, told the MEPs that EU states have 100 Patriot air defense systems, while Ukraine asks for seven of them.
“We, Europeans, we invite them to come to the European Union, but we are not capable to do so,” Verhofstadt added.
The MEP proposed to withdraw the discharge of the EU Council’s budget from the agenda until a decision is taken to provide Ukraine with seven air defense systems.
Meanwhile, here’s how a fresh Washington Post interview began:
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wants the West’s extra, idle Patriot air defense batteries. And he’s not asking nicely anymore.
“Nice and quiet diplomacy didn’t work,” Kuleba, Kyiv’s top diplomat, told The Washington Post in an interview this week.
Below: Thursday’s scene inside European parliament…
He told the newspaper that ultimately the country would need 26 Patriot batteries to secure the airspace over the whole country, but that an initial seven would go a long way in meeting the most pressing needs.
“I’m sorry to spoil the birthday party, but who can believe that the mightiest military alliance in the world cannot find seven batteries of Patriots to provide them to the only country in the world that is fighting ballistic attacks every day?” he questioned provocatively.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS.
ISRAEL//IRAN/USA THURSDAY NIGHT
TIMES OF ISRAEL
Thursday night: Israel on high alert
(Times of Israel)
IDF says it’s on high alert for Iranian attack, as world warns Tehran of consequences
Iran said to tell US it will avoid a major escalation; US restricts employees in Israel and families from personal travel outside key cities; Gallant: We’ll hit Iran, if it hits us
A banner displaying pictures of Israeli army officials with their faces encircled by a red crosshair icon hangs in Tehran on April 2, 2024, following a suspected Israeli strike in Damascus that killed the top IRGC officer in Syria. (Atta Kenare/AFP)
Tensions surrounding a potential Iranian attack on Israel appeared to reach new heights Thursday as the Israeli military said it was fully prepared for an incoming strike and as multiple international actors warned Tehran against a major assault on the Jewish state.
Israel is “on alert and highly prepared for various scenarios, and we are constantly assessing the situation,” IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said at a press conference.
“We are ready for attack and defense using a variety of capabilities that the IDF has, and also ready with our strategic partners,” he said, referring to the head of US Central Command (CENTCOM) Gen. Michael Kurilla, who arrived in Israel on Thursday morning to hold an assessment with IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi on the ongoing security challenges in the region.
Meanwhile, the United States said it had restricted its employees in Israel and their family members from personal travel outside the greater Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Beersheba areas amid Iran’s threats “out of an abundance of caution.”
Iran has threatened to attack Israel following an April 1 airstrike on an Iranian consulate building in the Syrian capital of Damascus, which killed several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders, including two generals.
Both Tehran and Damascus have blamed Israel for the strike and vowed revenge, although Jerusalem has not commented on the matter.
Apparently seeking to lower the flames, Iranian sources told Reuters Thursday that Tehran has signaled to Washington it will respond in a way that aims to avoid major escalation and it will not act hastily.
Iran’s message to Washington was conveyed by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian during a visit on Sunday to the Gulf Arab state of Oman, which has often acted as an intermediary between Tehran and Washington, the sources said.
A White House spokesperson declined to comment. A source familiar with US intelligence was not aware of the message conveyed via Oman but said Iran has “been very clear” that its response to the attack on its Damascus embassy compound would be “controlled” and “non-escalatory” and planned “to use regional proxies to launch a number of attacks on Israel.”
Israeli and US officials across various agencies have been in contact over the last few days to prepare for an attack they believe is imminent, with Kurilla’s visit to the region the latest show of cooperation between the two countries in the face of Iranian threats.
“Our strategic relationship with the US armed forces is strong and tight,” Hagari said to the press,” adding that “an attack from Iranian territory would be clear proof of Iranian intentions to escalate the situation in the Middle East, and to stop hiding behind the proxies.”
The IDF will “know how to operate wherever is needed,” Hagari said, adding that in recent months, it has “upgraded and improved” its attack capabilities.
File: IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari gives a statement on an IDF operation at the Al-Shifa Hospital complex in Gaza City, March 18, 2024, following ‘concrete’ intelligence on Hamas terror activity in the compound. (Screenshot)
He stressed, however, that even as the defense establishment prepares for what intelligence reports estimate will be an attack launched either by Iran itself or by its regional proxies, the instructions issued to the public have not changed.
“We have a multi-layered [air] defense capability that has proven itself amid the war, with thousands of successful interceptions,” he said. “But the defense is never going to be hermetic,” he continued, adding that civilians should continue to follow the existing and unchanged Home Front Command guidelines, and remain vigilant.
“We are braced and ready, on high alert, defensively and offensively,” he added.
While Hagari stressed that there had been no change to Home Front Command instructions, the Kan public broadcaster reported on Thursday evening that the military’s civil defense body had instructed municipalities around the country to prepare for an attack and ensure that public shelters are fit for use, though without causing panic among civilians.
There was no official confirmation of the report.
Israeli children play outside of a bomb shelter as they celebrate the Jewish holiday of Purim, in Sderot, southern Israel, more than five months after the October 7 massacre, Friday, March 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Tsafrir Abayov)
Speaking to US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Thursday evening, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant emphasized again that Israel will not tolerate an Iranian attack on its territory, and thanked him for the US’s increased cooperation.
In a readout from the call, Gallant’s office said he had told his US counterpart that “a direct Iranian attack will require an appropriate Israeli response against Iran.”
In addition to the US, Israel’s other allies have also warned Iran against striking Israel, saying it could destabilize the region even further, after six months of war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron told Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana on Thursday that France had warned Iran not to attack, and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock spoke on the phone with her Iranian counterpart about “the tense situation in the Middle East,” the German foreign ministry said.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, meanwhile, called threats by Tehran “unacceptable,” and pledged that “we, like the Americans, fully support Israel’s right to defend itself against that.”
Sunak added that Britain had already “highlighted Iran as a significant risk to regional security,” including to the UK.
Following Sunak’s comments, British Foreign Minister David Cameron said he had made clear to his Iranian counterpart Amir-Abdollahian that Iran should not draw the Middle East into a wider conflict, following threats made by Iran toward Israel.
“I am deeply concerned about the potential for miscalculation leading to further violence. Iran should instead work to de-escalate and prevent further attacks,” he wrote on X.
Russia too, despite its somewhat dented ties with Israel in the wake of the Gaza war, warned all parties to show restraint, saying that Iran and Israel must not “destabilize the region, which is already not gifted with stability or predictability.”
Iran, for its part, claimed on Thursday that the “imperative” to retaliate for the attack on its embassy compound might have been avoided had the UN Security Council condemned the strike.
“Had the UN Security Council condemned the Zionist regime’s reprehensible act of aggression on our diplomatic premises in Damascus and subsequently brought to justice its perpetrators, the imperative for Iran to punish this rogue regime might have been obviated,” Tehran’s mission to the United Nations wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
A display showing killed Iranian military figures and allied Lebanese and Palestinian terrorists next to Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque is set up as the Iranian embassy in Beirut receives condolences for the death of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who led the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria, and six other IRGC members, April 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)
At the same time as Israel’s defense establishment braced for conflict with Iran, some are concerned that it could also further delay any agreement with Hamas for a temporary truce and hostage release.
According to unnamed sources in Jerusalem quoted by Channel 12 on Thursday evening, Israel believes that Hamas’s Gaza chief Yahya Sinwar is delaying the group’s response to the latest proposal on the table in the hope that Iran will attack Israel and help spark a wider conflict he sought to trigger on October 7.
“Sinwar has not given up on his ambition to see a regional war, and he is pinning his hopes on an Iranian attack and an Israeli response, which could bring about a ‘unification of the fronts’ [against Israel],” the TV report quoted the sources saying.
Some 129 of the 253 hostages seized during the October 7 attacks are still in Gaza, not all of them alive. Israel has confirmed that at least 34 are dead, although US and Israeli officials have hinted in recent days that the number could be much higher.
Hamas officials have publicly reiterated demands for an Israeli commitment to end the war and to allow northern Gazans to return home, but have not issued a definitive rejection of the latest proposal.
END
ISRAEL IRAN/FRIDAY MORNING
USA intelligence states an attack on Israel in 24 to 48 hrs
(TIMES OF ISRAEL)
US intel said to indicate Iran could strike ‘Israeli soil’ in next 24 to 48 hours
WSJ also quotes Iranian official as saying Khamenei yet to decide on plans, fearing Israel will intercept missiles and respond with major strike on Iran’s strategic infrastructure
A handout picture provided by the Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei office shows him speaking during the Eid al-Fitr prayer ceremony in Tehran on April 10, 2024. (Photo by KHAMENEI.IR / AFP)
Iran could launch an attack on Israeli soil within the next 24 to 48 hours, the Wall Street Journal on Friday quoted a US official as saying, citing American intelligence reports.
Israel has been on high alert amid multiple threats and intelligence assessments that Iran would launch a strike on Israeli targets in a bid to avenge the April 1 airstrike on an Iranian consulate building in the Syrian capital of Damascus, which killed several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders, including two generals.
Both Tehran and Damascus have blamed Israel for the strike and vowed revenge, although Jerusalem has not commented on the matter.
A US official with knowledge of the matter told WSJ that American intelligence reports now indicate an Iranian retaliatory strike within days, “possibly on Israeli soil” as opposed to Israeli interests elsewhere.
He said the strike could come within the next 24 to 48 hours and Israel was preparing for a possible strike on either southern or northern Israel.
However, the same report also quoted a person briefed by the Iranian leadership as saying that no final decision has been taken by Tehran.
Demonstrators hang an effigy of the Israeli prime minister during the funeral for seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a strike in Syria, which Iran blamed on Israel, in Tehran on April 5, 2024. (Atta Kenare / AFP)
According to the report, quoting an IRGC advisor, earlier in the week, the Guards provided Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with several options to strike Israeli interests.
It said that among the options was a direct attack on Israel with sophisticated medium-range missiles, he said.
Unverified posts on social media in recent days have shown Iranian threats of simulated attacks on targets in Israel including the nuclear facility in Dimona and the small airport in Haifa, which only operates flights to Cyprus.
But Khamenei has yet to decide on the plans. He is concerned a direct attack could backfire with the projectiles being intercepted and Israel responding with a massive retaliation on Iran’s strategic infrastructure, the Journal reported.
File: An Arrow interceptor missile is launched at a target over the Red Sea in October 2023. (Defense Ministry)
“The strike plans are in front of the Supreme Leader and he is still weighing the political risk,” the adviser told the WSJ.
Tensions surrounding a potential Iranian attack on Israel appeared to reach new heights Thursday as the Israeli military said it was fully prepared for an incoming strike and as multiple international actors warned Tehran against a major assault on the Jewish state.
Israel is “on alert and highly prepared for various scenarios, and we are constantly assessing the situation,” IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said at a press conference.
“We are ready for attack and defense using a variety of capabilities that the IDF has, and also ready with our strategic partners,” he said, referring to the head of US Central Command (CENTCOM) Gen. Michael Kurilla, who arrived in Israel on Thursday morning to hold an assessment with IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi on the ongoing security challenges in the region.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant also spoke with his American counterpart Lloyd Austin overnight Thursday, according to a Pentagon statement that said the latter stressed “ironclad US support for Israel’s defense in the face of growing threats from Iran and its regional proxies.”
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin (L) and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant outside the Pentagon on March 26, 2024. (Ariel Hermoni/Defense Ministry)
“Secretary Austin assured Minister Gallant that Israel could count on full US support to defend Israel against Iranian attacks, which Tehran has publicly threatened,” the readout added.
According to Gallant’s office, he told Austin that “A direct Iranian attack will require an appropriate Israeli response against Iran.”
However, the Washinton Post also reported that Austin complained to Gallant that Washington was not notified before the April 1 airstrike.
US officials quoted in the report said Austin’s complaint was based on the fact that the strike increased risks to American forces in the region.
Meanwhile, the United States said it had restricted its employees in Israel and their family members from personal travel outside the greater Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Beersheba areas amid Iran’s threats “out of an abundance of caution.”
Apparently seeking to lower the flames, Iranian sources told Reuters Thursday that Tehran has signaled to Washington it will respond in a way that aims to avoid major escalation and it will not act hastily.
Iran’s message to Washington was conveyed by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian during a visit on Sunday to the Gulf Arab state of Oman, which has often acted as an intermediary between Tehran and Washington, the sources said.
A White House spokesperson declined to comment. A source familiar with US intelligence was not aware of the message conveyed via Oman but said Iran has “been very clear” that its response to the attack on its Damascus embassy compound would be “controlled” and “non-escalatory” and planned “to use regional proxies to launch a number of attacks on Israel.”
Israeli and US officials across various agencies have been in contact over the last few days to prepare for an attack they believe is imminent, with Kurilla’s visit to the region the latest show of cooperation between the two countries in the face of Iranian threats.
“Our strategic relationship with the US armed forces is strong and tight,” Hagari said to the press,” adding that “an attack from Iranian territory would be clear proof of Iranian intentions to escalate the situation in the Middle East, and to stop hiding behind the proxies.”
The IDF will “know how to operate wherever is needed,” Hagari said, adding that in recent months, it has “upgraded and improved” its attack capabilities.
File: IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari provides a statement related to an IDF operation at the Al-Shifa Hospital complex in Gaza City, March 18, 2024. (Screenshot)
He stressed, however, that even as the defense establishment prepares for what intelligence reports estimate will be an attack launched either by Iran itself or by its regional proxies, the instructions issued to the public have not changed.
“We have a multi-layered [air] defense capability that has proven itself amid the war, with thousands of successful interceptions,” he said. “But the defense is never going to be hermetic,” he continued, adding that civilians should continue to follow the existing and unchanged Home Front Command guidelines and remain vigilant.
“We are braced and ready, on high alert, defensively and offensively,” he added.
While Hagari stressed that there had been no change to Home Front Command instructions, the Kan public broadcaster reported on Thursday evening that the military’s civil defense body had instructed municipalities around the country to prepare for an attack and ensure that public shelters are fit for use, while at the same time stating there was no need for citizens to panic.
There was no official confirmation of the report.
Israeli children play outside of a bomb shelter as they celebrate the Jewish holiday of Purim, in Sderot, southern Israel, more than five months after the October 7 massacre, Friday, March 22, 2024. (AP/Tsafrir Abayov)
Alongside the US, other countries, including France, Germany, the UK and Russia. also urged Iran to act with restraint.
Iran, for its part, claimed on Thursday that the “imperative” to retaliate for the attack on its embassy compound might have been avoided had the UN Security Council condemned the strike.
“Had the UN Security Council condemned the Zionist regime’s reprehensible act of aggression on our diplomatic premises in Damascus and subsequently brought to justice its perpetrators, the imperative for Iran to punish this rogue regime might have been obviated,” Tehran’s mission to the United Nations wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
END
ISRAEL IRAN/FRIDAY MORNING/
same story as above
JERUSALEM POST
Israel expects Iranian attack within upcoming 48 hours – WSJ
An individual who was briefed by Iranian regime leadership stated “no final decision has been made” as attack plans have been discussed.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei looks on during a meeting in Tehran, Iran, April 3, 2024.(photo credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS)
Iran is expected to attack Israel between the next 24 to 48 hours, with an exclusive Thursday report by the Wall Street Journal saying that the Jewish state is “preparing for a direct attack” on the north or south of the country.
The report cited an individual who was briefed by Iranian regime leadership stated, “no final decision has been made” as attack plans have been discussed.
The attack is in response to the alleged Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, which killed several members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force. Tehran then publicly threatened to respond to the attack.
A previous Wednesday report from Bloomberg, citing US intelligence reports, said that the US and allies predicted that an Iranian attack on Israel “could be imminent.” However, the WSJ cited a source saying that the attack could be “within Israel’s borders.”
Earlier this week, the IRGC contacted the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with options to strike Israeli interests, the Journal reported, citing an adviser to the paramilitary force, with the report also saying that in recent hours, IRGC-associated social media accounts posted videos showing simulated missile attacks on Israel’s Haifa airport in the north of the country, and its nuclear facility in Dimona which is in the south.
The report also notes Khamenei’s concern if an attack could backfire, for example, in a scenario where Israel would intercept its projectiles and then retaliate with strikes on Iranian strategic infrastructure, with an advisor saying that “he is still weighing the political risk.” Scenarios of Iran attacking include utilizing its proxies in Iraq and Syria, the report noted, or attacking the country’s embassies in other countries, notably those located in Arab countries.
Israel plans to respond
Israel, however, made it clear that it would respond to any Iranian attack, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “Whoever harms us, we will harm them,” during a visit to the Tel Nof Air Base.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei looks at the coffins of members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who were killed in the Israeli airstrike on the Iranian embassy complex in the Syrian capital Damascus, during a funeral ceremony in Tehran, Iran April 4, 2024 (credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA/Handout via Reuters)
Spokesperson Rear-Adm. Daniel Hagari told reporters on Thursday night that Israel is “on a high state of alert and preparedness.” Additionally, Israel has threatened to disrupt Iran’s cyber infrastructure.
The same day, the US Embassy in Israel told its staff not to travel outside the greater Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Beersheba areas amid the Iranian threat and would be restricted from doing so.
French President Emmanuel Macron said he had warned Iran not to attack Israel in a conversation with Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana. Additionally, the German and British foreign ministers, Annalena Baerbock and David Cameron, called on their Iranian counterpart to ask Tehran not to attack Israel, the Journal sourced British and Iranian officials as saying.
A couple of days earlier, on Sunday, Iranian nuclear scientist Mahmoud Reza Aghamiri said that the construction of a nuclear weapon is not complicated for a nation like Iran.
end
ISRAEL IRAN
Top US General Spotted At Central Israel Airbase Just As Iran Attack Looms
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, APR 12, 2024 – 11:16 AM
Update(1116ET): At a moment US intelligence has indicated that Iran could strike Israeli soil in the next 24 to 48 hours, a top US general was spotted at an airbase in central Israel on Friday. US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla met with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant at Hatzor Airbase “a short while ago,” according to Times of Israel military correspondent Emanuel Fabian.
The two defense officials discussed “readiness for an Iranian attack against the State of Israel, which may lead to regional escalation,” an official statement of the visit by Gallant’s said. Given it could be “bombs away” at any moment, is it a good idea for America’s top regional general to be hanging out at one of the very bases which could be directly targeted?
“Our enemies think that they can pull apart Israel and the United States, but the opposite is true, they are bringing us together and strengthening our ties. We stand shoulder to shoulder,” Gallant’s statement continued.
“I am certain that the world sees the true face of Iran, the terrorist body that incites terror attacks across the Middle East, and funds Hamas, Hezbollah, and additional forces [proxies], and now also threatens the State of Israel,” the Israeli defense chief added. “We are prepared to defend ourselves on the ground and in the air, in close cooperation with our partners, and we will know how to respond.”
It goes without saying that if top US military officials are currently on the ground and find themselves in the attack path when Iranian missiles are launched, it could be a direct trigger for massive regional war, given Washington wouldn’t hesitate to respond in a big way against Tehran in that scenario.
* * *
Iran is expected to attack Israel by week’s end, or at least within the coming days. However, the degree of telegraphing has almost taken the teeth out of the threat and what Iran hopes to accomplish in its retaliation.
“Iran is calibrating its plans for a major retaliatory strike against Israel to send a message — but not spark a regional war that compels Washington to respond, the U.S. assesses,” Politicoreports of what’s expected. “Biden administration officials judge that Iran is planning a larger-than-usual aerial attack on Israel in the coming days, one that will likely feature a mix of missiles and drone strikes, said two U.S. officials who were granted anonymity to detail sensitive intelligence assessments.”
The Pentagon has apparently moved naval assets closer to Israel in expectation of Iranian strikes (or else major attacks from their proxies like Hezbollah or the Houthis), including the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier which is patrolling the Red Sea. Israel’s Channel 14 also reports, “The US military deployed a missile ship with advanced defense capabilities near the shores of Israel.”
The US has said it is ready to coordinate a response with Israel if it is hit; however, the defense consensus is that Iran is unlikely to send missiles and drones directly from its soil. CBS has newly cited two US officials who say that “a major Iranian attack against Israel was expected as soon as Friday, possibly to include more than 100 drones and dozens of missiles aimed at military targets inside the country.”
But so far the past days have been a constant avalanche of speculation as an attack remains ‘imminent’. The US State Department is taking action, issuing a security warning to all government employees and their families for the US Embassy in Jerusalem. Travel restrictions have been placed on their movements, after the embassy has been on edge ever since Israel’s unprecedented April 1st attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
“Out of an abundance of caution, U.S. government employees and their family members are restricted from personal travel outside the greater Tel Aviv, … Jerusalem, and Be’er Sheva areas until further notice,” US Embassy security alert, issued Thursday says.
“The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem reminds U.S. citizens of the continued need for caution and increased personal security awareness as security incidents often take place without warning,” the alert continued. “The security environment remains complex and can change quickly depending on the political situation and recent events.”
Several other countries have issued travel warnings to their citizens, while bracing for a possible bigger war in the Middle East, including Russia and India of late. The UK and France have reportedly called on their citizens to leave immediately, citing an inevitable attack from Iran.
Meanwhile the speculation continues as to the timing, with The Wall Street Journal on Friday reporting that “Israel is preparing for a direct attack from Iran on southern or northern Israel as soon as Friday or Saturday, according to a person familiar with the matter.”
However, even US intelligence doesn’t have a crystal ball. The WSJ follows with this caveat: “A person briefed by the Iranian leadership, however, said that while plans to attack are being discussed, no final decision has been made.”
Starting Thursday, Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), arrived in Israel amid reports that the US and Israel could respond jointly to any imminent Iranian attack on Israel. Alarmingly, Ynet reports Friday that “The IDF and Mossad approved plans for an attack on Iran in the event that Israel would come under attack from Iranian territory. Additionally, the coordination between the U.S. and Israeli militaries, has increased.”
Below are the morning’s geopolitical headlines via Newsquawk:
* * *
MIDDLE EAST – EUROPEAN MORNING
“The (Israeli) army and the Mossad approved plans to target the heart of Iran if Israel (is) bombed from inside Iranian territory”, via Al Jazeera citing Yedioth Ahronoth.
Hamas sources: “The organization’s leadership informed the mediators that it is not interested in further discussions about the deal, as long as there is no progress in its demands…”, according to journalist Kais citing Hezbollah-affiliated press.
“US official to Al-Arabiya: We will participate in the response if Iran escalates with an appropriate response”, according to Al Arabiya
MIDDLE EAST
Israel is prepared for an Iranian strike from its territory in the next 48 hours, according to WSJ. Israeli army said Iran is preparing its proxies in the region to attack them, according to Al Arabiya.
Israeli Defence Minister Gallant told US Defense Secretary Austin that a direct Iranian attack on Israeli territory would compel Israel to respond in an appropriate way against Iran, according to Axios.
Iran reportedly signalled to Washington it will respond to Israel’s attack on its Syrian embassy in a way that aims to avoid major escalation and it will not act hastily, according to Reuters citing Iranian sources. Furthermore, a source familiar with US intelligence was not aware of the message conveyed but said Iran has been very clear its response would be controlled and non-escalatory, and planned to use regional proxies to launch a number of attacks on Israel.
US President Biden’s administration officials judge that Iran is planning a larger-than-usual aerial attack on Israel in the coming days which will likely feature a mix of missiles and drone strikes, according to two US officials cited by Politico.
US official said the US expects an attack by Iran against Israel which they think will be calibrated to be bigger than usual but not so big it would draw the US into war, while US officials have also been in touch with regional partners to discuss efforts to manage and ultimately reduce further risks of escalation.
US said it had restricted its employees in Israel and their family members from personal travel outside the greater Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Be’er Sheva areas amid Iran’s threats of retaliation against Israel.
US State Department senior official said a robust conversation with Iraq is likely to lead to a second US-Iraq joint security cooperation dialogue later this year.
OTHER
US President Biden warned that any attack on Philippine vessels in the South China Sea would invoke their mutual defence treaty.
China’s top legislator Zhao Leji and North Korean counterpart discussed promoting exchange and cooperation in all fields, according to KCNA.
Four drones shot down overnight near Russia’s Novoshakhtinsk in a town in near proximity to an oil refinery
END
IRAN/USA/ISRAEL
IRAN RESPONDS
ESCALATION GALORE!
Iran Says If US ‘Interferes’ In Retaliation On Israel, American Bases Will Be Struck
FRIDAY, APR 12, 2024 – 12:17 PM
Update(1317ET): Israeli hospitals have been put on a high state of alert by the home command, awaiting an ‘imminent’ Iranian retaliation attack. Iran has also reportedly put the United States on notice…
Three U.S. Officials told Axios : Iran has sent a message to the U.S. through several Arab countries, that if they interfere in Iran’s response against Israel, U.S. bases in the region will be struck.
Meanwhile, Russia just chose quite the wrong moment to conduct a test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile from its Kapustin Yar airbase in southern Russia. The rocket was reportedly seen soaring high in the atmosphere from parts of northern Iraq and Iran, triggering concerns it was Iran beginning its attack.
Below are some breaking headlines:
ALERT US sends reinforcements to Middle East amid fears of Iran attack: official
A large number of Iron Dome missiles were launched in the Upper Galilee after a salvo of 50 missiles was launched from Lebanon
Israel’s Channel 12 reports Home Front Command has sent hospitals a message in the last hour asking hospital managers to ensure staff availability.
The White House has Confirmed a change in U.S. Force and Alert Posture across the Middle East, but has Refused to go into further details.
Hezbollah appears to have ramped up its missile salvos over northern Israel:
There are also new reports that the US Navy has parked an advanced missile ship just off Israel’s coast, readying to assist with a possible response.
The Pentagon has apparently moved naval assets closer to Israel in expectation of Iranian strikes (or else major attacks from their proxies like Hezbollah or the Houthis), including the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier which is patrolling the Red Sea. Israel’s Channel 14 also reports, “The US military deployed a missile ship with advanced defense capabilities near the shores of Israel.”
The US has said it is ready to coordinate a response with Israel if it is hit; however, the defense consensus is that Iran is unlikely to send missiles and drones directly from its soil. CBS has newly cited two US officials who say that “a major Iranian attack against Israel was expected as soon as Friday, possibly to include more than 100 drones and dozens of missiles aimed at military targets inside the country.”
But so far the past days have been a constant avalanche of speculation as an attack remains ‘imminent’. The US State Department is taking action, issuing a security warning to all government employees and their families for the US Embassy in Jerusalem. Travel restrictions have been placed on their movements, after the embassy has been on edge ever since Israel’s unprecedented April 1st attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
“Out of an abundance of caution, U.S. government employees and their family members are restricted from personal travel outside the greater Tel Aviv, … Jerusalem, and Be’er Sheva areas until further notice,” US Embassy security alert, issued Thursday says.
“The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem reminds U.S. citizens of the continued need for caution and increased personal security awareness as security incidents often take place without warning,” the alert continued. “The security environment remains complex and can change quickly depending on the political situation and recent events.”
Several other countries have issued travel warnings to their citizens, while bracing for a possible bigger war in the Middle East, including Russia and India of late. The UK and France have reportedly called on their citizens to leave immediately, citing an inevitable attack from Iran.
Meanwhile the speculation continues as to the timing, with The Wall Street Journal on Friday reporting that “Israel is preparing for a direct attack from Iran on southern or northern Israel as soon as Friday or Saturday, according to a person familiar with the matter.”
However, even US intelligence doesn’t have a crystal ball. The WSJ follows with this caveat: “A person briefed by the Iranian leadership, however, said that while plans to attack are being discussed, no final decision has been made.”
Starting Thursday, Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), arrived in Israel amid reports that the US and Israel could respond jointly to any imminent Iranian attack on Israel. Alarmingly, Ynet reports Friday that “The IDF and Mossad approved plans for an attack on Iran in the event that Israel would come under attack from Iranian territory. Additionally, the coordination between the U.S. and Israeli militaries, has increased.”
Houthis/USA
US military says it destroyed Houthi anti-ship missile fired from Yemen
The US military says it has destroyed an anti-ship ballistic missile launched from a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen.
US Central Command says in a written statement that no injuries or damage were reported to US, coalition or merchant vessels.
END
ISRAEL/GAZA/NORTHERN ROUTE/AID
IDF sends first aid trucks through Israel’s new Northern crossing into Gaza Strip
According to the statement, trucks containing food were brought in as part of efforts to enhance humanitarian aid routes into the Gaza Strip, specifically in Northern Gaza.
First humanitarian aid trucks carrying food to enter Gaza through the new Northern crossing passed into the Strip from Israel on Thursday, the IDF announced on Friday afternoon.
According to the statement, trucks containing food were brought in as part of efforts to enhance humanitarian aid routes into the Gaza Strip, specifically in Northern Gaza.
When the trucks entered, they underwent security checks and were accompanied by IDF soldiers.
The decision comes following much international pressure
The decision to bring in humanitarian aid through the Northern Crossing comes after Israel was faced with great international pressure to increase aid to the area.
IDF humanitarian aid trucks enter through the Northern crossing of Israel in to Gaza on April 12, 2024 (credit: IDF SPOKESMAN’S UNIT)
On Thursday, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters in Washington that Israel still had not done enough to resolve the hunger crisis in Gaza but had taken steps to improve the situation.
“The past few days have shown some promise,” Pierre stated, emphasizing that Israel’s plan to open a new crossing for aid was a step in the right direction.
end
ISRAEL/WEST BANK
IDF confirms death of Hamas military wing operative in early morning West Bank raid
Palestinian men check a bullet-riddled car following an IDF raid in the al-Faraa camp near Tubas in the West Bank on April 12, 2024. (Zain Jaafar/AFP)
The IDF has confirmed the deaths of two Palestinians, including a senior member of the Hamas military wing, during an early morning raid near the West Bank city of Tubas.
Mohammad Omar Daraghmeh, the head of a local Hamas infrastructure in the northern West Bank city of Tubas, was killed during an exchange of fire with troops, the IDF says.
Amid the overnight incident, Daraghmeh shot at troops from a vehicle, who then returned fire, killing him. Several firearms and other military equipment were seized from his car.
Weapons seized from the vehicle of a senior Hamas operative in the West Bank city of Tubas, April 12, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
Daraghmeh was a “central Hamas operative” in the Tubas area and in recent months was working on “advancing significant terror acts against Israel,” according to the IDF.
Hamas confirms Daraghmeh’s death and that he was a member of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades.
The IDF says the second Palestinian man, named by Palestinian media as Mohammad Shahmawi, was killed when troops opened fire on Palestinians who were shooting and throwing explosive devices at them.
Hamas says it mourned Shahmawi’s death, but does not claim him as a member of the terror group.
Since October 7, troops have arrested some 3,700 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including more than 1,600 affiliated with Hamas. According to the Palestinian Authority health ministry, more than 450 West Bank Palestinians have been killed in that time. The IDF says the vast majority of them were gunmen or terrorists carrying out attacks.
Reuters contributed to this report.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
IDF discovers weapons and explosives in central Gaza school
The IDF troops located and removed several large armed explosive charges that were hidden in the classrooms and the schoolyard of the Ibrahim Al-Makhadmeh School.
An aerial photograph of the ‘Ibrahim Al-Maqadma’ school with the explosives found in it, April 12, 2024.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)
The IDF announced on Friday that it had discovered a cache of weapons and explosives at a school in central Gaza.
Several units were brought together for the targeted raid to eliminate terrorist forces and infrastructure in the center of the Gaza Strip.
The Nahal Brigade carried out targeted raids on several buildings used by Hamas and Islamic Jihad and located terrorist infrastructure as part of the operation.
Explosive weapons found at the Ibrahim Al-Maqadma school in central Gaza, April 12, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)
Weapons and explosives hidden in classrooms
The IDF troops located and removed several large armed explosive charges that were hidden in the classrooms and the schoolyard of the Ibrahim Al-Makhadmeh School, the military noted.
In addition, the soldiers located an observation post used by the Hamas terrorist organization for terrorist activities and threatening IDF soldiers.
ISRAEL/TURKEY
How Turkish Sanctions Against Israel Will Impact Bilateral Trade
Turkey’s decision to halt the export of 54 products to Israel in response to its war on Gaza isn’t likely to have far-reaching results, since both countries’ economies are complementary in nature rather than central to each other.
The Turkish trade ministry announced earlier this week that Ankara would continue to implement the restrictions as long as Israel denies uninterrupted flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza Strip, citing UN Security Council decisions and an International Court of Justice (ICJ) preliminary judgment against Israel’s conduct in the coastal enclave. The export restrictions encompass items such as aluminium wire, steel, cement, construction materials, granite, chemicals, pesticides, engine oils, jet fuel and bricks.
Before the war, Turkish-Israeli ties had been steadier than they had been for years. After years of tensions over Palestine, the two normalized relations in 2022. Yet, while Turkey and Israel quarreled over the past decade, and even stopped cooperating with each other, trade had never been interrupted. In fact, it flourished over time.
The Turkish public has been outraged at Israel’s actions in Gaza, where reportedly more than 33,000 Palestinians have been killed in six months. Lists of ships carrying goods to Israel circulated on social media as Israel’s onslaught grew. People also highlighted companies close to the Turkish government that continued commercial relations with Israel during the war.
Even though there is no evidence to back claims that Turkey sold weapons to Israel, the controversy was stoked by a small quantity of hunting gear or hunting equipment parts being found among the exports. They were broadly classified by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) as “weaponry”.
In response to this domestic pressure and serious setbacks for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in local elections last month, the government decided to act against Israel.
Ties have been cut on the Israeli side, too. In October, several Israeli supermarket chains halted imports from Turkey in response to Ankara’s critical stance on the Gaza war. Israeli food company Strauss in December changed the packaging for one of its most well-known products, Elite Turkish coffee, adding an Israeli flag and patriotic slogans.
An important market
But is the trade between the two countries vital? Many say no, but Israel is nonetheless an important export market for Ankara. Turkey’s exports to Israel were worth $5.4bn in 2023, or 2.1 percent of its total exports, according to official data.
Although bilateral trade has dropped by 33 percent since the October 7 Hamas-led attack, it has nonetheless continued and exports to Israel have increased each month in 2024 so far. Both countries have had a free trade deal in place since 1996 and there have been no tariffs on certain products since 2000, which has enabled major increases in bilateral trade, largely favouring Turkey.
From 2009 to 2023, trade between the two countries nearly tripled. By the end of that period, Turkey had become the fifth-largest supplier of imported goods to Israel, while Israel ranked as Turkey’s tenth-largest export market, based on data from the Central Bureau of Statistics.
Turkey exported steel, automotive industry products, chemicals, ready-made clothing and apparel, electricity and electronics, cement, glass, ceramics and soil products, furniture, paper, and forestry to Israel, according to a report published by the Turkey Exporters Assembly covering the period between 2011 and 2020.
“The economies are complementary but not intertwined,” Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), told Middle East Eye. “Turkey can find also substitutes to what it imports from Israel, and anyhow, of the bilateral trade, three-quarters are Turkish exports to Israel and only one-quarter is Israeli exports to Turkey.”
Trade with Israel has traditionally been highly advantageous for Turkey, which enjoyed a trade surplus of $3.9bn last year. Israel serves as a significant market for Turkish steel, purchasing 726,000 tonnes last year. This figure constitutes over 20 percent of Turkey’s total steel exports. The ban is expected to significantly affect these exports.
In terms of dependence on imports, Israel heavily relies on Turkish cement, with imports from Turkey making up 29 percent of Israel’s total cement imports last year. Additionally, Turkish imports represent about 11 percent of Israel’s total plastic and rubber products, and around 10 percent in textiles.
Sources familiar with the construction industry told Israeli news outlet Mako that the new restrictions were expected to increase the prices of apartments and rent in the country if they are implemented. “In terms of long-term repercussions, the fact the Turkey halts construction materials when these are needed to repair damaged houses in the south and north of Israel because of rockets and other damage will likely taint relations also in the future,” Lindenstrauss said.
“Also, while anyhow there were question marks regarding a possible gas pipeline between Israel and Turkey, these export restrictions in a time of war will be a big warning sign not to proceed with the pipeline idea.”
Impact on Palestine
Turkey’s decision to restrict exports to Israel likely has an impact on Palestine as well. “Israel has complete control over the border crossings as Palestinian imports arrive at Haifa or Ashdod seaports, and the goods are then transported to Palestinian territories via trucks,” Rashad Yousef, director of policies and planning at the Palestinian Ministry of National Economy, told Anadolu Agency.
Yousef added that Palestinian-Turkish trade volume in 2022 exceeded $900m, representing a 12 percent increase over 2021. He also said that the main Turkish exports to Palestine are iron, wood, vegetable oil, tobacco, food products and items from the plastic industries.
“If we exclude Israel, Turkiye is the largest source of goods and products in the Palestinian market,” Yousef said. However, there are ways to continue to trade with Israel by rerouting trade through third countries, as the Ukraine war has proved following western sanctions on Russia.
Israeli importers are mulling bringing in Turkish goods via Slovenian ports Koper or Ljubljana, according to an Israeli report. “But still, the economic relations were what kept the relations going even in times of political crisis, so it is regrettable we have reached this point,” adds Lindenstrauss.
“And despite it having been a painful step, I don’t see it in itself changing Israel’s policy – the pressures from the White House are much more significant.”
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
The drone strike hits Russian oil refineries and that causes oil to rise in price
CNN published a detailed piece on Tuesday about how “Ukraine’s AI-enabled drones are trying to disrupt Russia’s energy industry. So far, it’s working”. Although an unnamed source close to the program told them that “The flights are determined in advance with our allies, and the aircraft follow the flight plan to enable us to strike targets with meters of precision”, there are reasons to believe that the US is against these sorts of attacks. Not least among them is what CNN itself reported in that same piece.
According to them, “Ukrainian strikes on refineries have caused global oil prices to rise, with Brent crude up nearly 13% this year, leaving politicians in the United States worried about their potential economic impact in an important election year.” They also cited an expert who claimed, “That was the deal with Ukraine: We will give you money, we will give you weapons, but stay away from the export facility, stay away from Russian energy, because we don’t want a massive energy crisis.”
That individual added in reference to the Congressional deadlock on Ukraine aid that “If they’re not getting the weapons and money that they were promised, what is their incentive to abide by that deal with Washington?” This aligns with what Zelensky himself hinted in an interview with the Washington Post late last month when he revealed that “The reaction of the US was not positive on [us attacking Russian oil refineries]…(but) We used our drones. Nobody can say to us you can’t.”
Secretary of State Blinken echoed that sentiment in a joint press conference with his French counterpart on Tuesday when he said in response to a question about these oil refinery strikes that “we have neither supported nor enabled strikes by Ukraine outside of its territory.” He was asked about this after a Ukrainian drone strike targeted Russia’s third-largest refinery in the Republic of Tatarstan, which is located in the country’s heartland a full 800 miles away from the front lines.
When reflecting on Blinken’s statement, CNN’s report, and Zelensky’s earlier words, it certainly appears to be the case that the US doesn’t want Ukraine striking Russian oil refineries out of fear that the massive energy crisis that this could catalyze would capsize Biden’s re-election bid.
If that’s indeed its position, then it raises the question of which allies are determining the flight paths of these drones and why Zelensky would risk Trump returning to power when he’s much less pro-Ukrainian than Biden is.
It might very well be the case that there are divisions emerging within NATO over these strikes exactly as RT editorialized when drawing attention to how Blinken’s French counterpart seemed to support the latest attacks in his response to the question that they were asked during Tuesday’s press conference. France might therefore be providing this sort of assistance, which could also be complemented by the UK’s and other countries’ complementary contributions, whether on their own or as part of a joint effort.
As for why Zelensky would want to rankle Biden and risk Trump’s return, he might have a “god complex” after being promoted so heavily as a Churchillian leader over the past two years, which could have become part of his identity despite the media souring on him since last summer. In his mind, Biden will do his bidding in somehow getting the Republicans to approve more Ukraine aid under pain of him unleashing a massive energy crisis by taking out more of Russia’s refining and export capabilities.
Biden would have already gotten the Republicans to do this if he was able to so it’s delusional for Zelensky to imagine that holding his re-election bid hostage will make a positive difference. If anything, wider awareness his thuggish tactics among the Republicans could further solidify their resistance to approving more Ukraine aid since Zelensky isn’t just holding Biden’s re-election bid hostage, but the entire American economy as well and therefore also threatening the US’ objective national interests.
Should he authorize a series of strikes that catalyzes the massive energy crisis that the Biden Administration fears, then the most hawkish anti-Russian deep state faction that’s responsible for artificially perpetuating this conflict might lose the influence that it exerts over policymakers. Their comparatively less hawkish rivals could replace their dominant role in that scenario and possibly convince the Biden Administration to finally agree to a pragmatic compromise for ending the conflict.
Zelensky’s decision to hold Biden’s re-election bid hostage by threatening to unleash a massive economic crisis as revenge for the Congressional deadlock on Ukraine aid might be his downfall. He’s not only biting the hand that feeds his regime on the taxpayers’ dime but also threatening the US’ objective national interests.
The desperation that his forces feel on the battlefield is driving him to “go rogue”, but his patrons might soon tire of this and decide to replace him after his term expires on 21 May.
In the wake of Simpson’s death, Esquire has blacked out its first interview with him—the first one anywhere—after his conviction: a telling profile, thanks to Celia Farber’s journalistic brilliance
A meticulous AIDS dissident, Farber was, in her own way, a pariah, too. The story of her story—a really big deal when it ran in 1998—tells us much about the world of journalism as it (often) was before “the virus” trashed it utterly.
I was told, but am not 100% certain if it’s accurate, that this issue broke sales records held by the magazine since their 1970 coverage of the Mai Lai Massacre. It was translated and published in over 26 countries. I never asked O.J: “Did you do it…
millions have come into America illegally and I warn you AGAIN, many Americans will be raped and killed at the hands of illegals, jihadists among them, already in US, US will see its Bataclan due to
Here is an activist leading Muslims in a chant pledging "Death to America." I am not making it up, as it's right here on video. I thought it was in Iran, but I was wrong.
Alexander COVID News_a PCR manufactured fake COVID pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Biden has INVADED America and is hollowing USA out…invading USA with dangerous people…be very knowledgeable about your 2nd amendment rights and of gun ownership, legal…know how to use your weapons if your life is threatened. Know how to legally defend yourself. From the wolf. The wolf too can be anyone.
This is why we need someone like Trump…someone who will be willing to close borders and find them all and deport them…find all who pose a risk…no radical jihadist should be allowed on US soil…no one chanting death to America should be on US soil…
Here is an activist leading Muslims in a chant pledging "Death to America." I am not making it up, as it's right here on video. I thought it was in Iran, but I was wrong.
Here is an activist leading Muslims in a chant pledging "Death to America." I am not making it up, as it's right here on video. I thought it was in Iran, but I was wrong.
Trump Issues BIG Warning Just Days Before TrialFormer President Donald Trump has issued a significant caution just days prior to the commencement of his trial in New York. An 11th-hour ruling by a New York appeals court judge has dismissed former President Donald Trump’s plea to postpone his criminal trial on April 15, as he endeavors to relocate the case away from Manhattan. On Monday, the former …READ THE FULL REPORT
ALERT: Top US General Preparing For Imminent Iran Retaliation AttackAccording to Axios, a senior U.S. military official is scheduled to travel to Israel on Thursday to collaborate on defense strategies in response to a potential attack from Iran. Last week, Israel conducted precise airstrikes on an Iranian diplomatic consulate in Damascus, Syria, resulting in the deaths of multiple members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC), including a high-ranking …READ THE FULL REPORT
Trump Issues Shock Warning To AmericansFormer President Donald Trump issued a cautionary message to the American people, emphasizing that their nation’s existence would be jeopardized if they did not cast their votes in his favor during the upcoming November presidential election. In a recent interview with Fox News host Brian Kilmeade on “One Nation,” Trump, who is expected to be the Republican Party’s nominee, discussed …READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
In Latest Humiliation For Biden Admin, Russian Oil Is Trading Above The G7 Price Cap Everywhere
\
THURSDAY, APR 11, 2024 – 10:30 PM
Back in late 2022, when “Western democracies” bombastically unveiled theatrical sanctions against Putin, capping the price at which imports of Russian oil were permitted to no higher than $60, we said that this was one of the biggest farces in modern history, not only because it was an optical play that was made entirely for public consumption (as nobody in the west actually wanted to curtail Russian oil exports as the outcome would be a devastating surge of inflation as Biden now realizes), but also because there was no enforcement mechanism to cap the price at $60 and no more.
We were right, again, and today Bloomberg reports that “Russian oil is trading far in excess of a Group of Seven price cap that’s supposed to deprive Moscow of revenue for its war in Ukraine, suggesting significant non-compliance with the measure”, which anyone with half a working brain would have expected to happen, which of course excludes virtually all “democratic” bureaucrats who implemented this idiotic sanction (which only ended up making the Vitol oil traders billionaires).
According to data from Argus Media, whose price assessments are followed by some G-7 nations involved in the cap, Russian flagship Urals grade oil is now selling for $75 a barrel at the point it leaves ports in the Baltic Sea and Black Sea. A Treasury official told Bloomberg that US officials are tracking the price increase, which they attribute to broader geopolitical dynamics, as the alternative – admitting they are idiots, would be a bit too introspective.
As a reminder, the Russian embaro cap requires that any western company involved in transporting Russian oil receives a so-called attestation, a document vouching that the cargo cost $60-a barrel or less. If it doesn’t, they’re not allowed to provide their services. The fact that Argus’s prices are so far above that level creates what Bloomberg called a “dissonance”, but what we would call, a giant slap on the face of the Biden administration which nobody takes seriously any more.
While Urals has been above $60 almost all year, this month’s surge to well above $70 will stretch the credibility of those attestations for traders wanting to keep using western services. Not like anyone actually thought those attestations had any credibility to begin with since the governments enforcing them were so clearly interested in having everyone ignore them.
Bloomberg data showed that in March, 23% of the nation’s crude oil shipments had insurance against spills and collisions provided by members of the International Group of P&I Clubs. That means traders would have vouched that the cargoes cost well below where Argus assessed the Urals price to be, which was clearly not the case, and means that at least a quarter of Russian oil shippers are fabricating data. A smaller proportion moved on Greek tankers, all of which had cover from IG clubs, also requiring attestation.
Hilariously, the idiots in the Biden admin told Bloomberg that the cap is still having its intended effect, reducing the amount of money the Kremlin receives from oil sales by forcing the commodity to either be sold under the cap via western services, or through Russia’s shadow fleet. Which, of course, is absolutely not the case and Putin is currently rolling in the cash from selling oil to the same European nations that are supplying Ukraine with their most modern weapons which Putin then handily blows up and reverse engineers. The US plans to continue the enforcement of the cap by sanctioning vessels operating in the shadow fleet, but will not do so in response to any specific market moves, the official said, requesting anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, and for the reason that it would be extremely embarrassing if his name were to become public.
A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc is aware of the risk of the price cap being dodged, and is committed to steps that deprive Russia of revenue while simultaneously “supporting global energy market stability.” It’s also constantly reviewing existing measures to enforce the cap and prevent its violation or circumvention, the spokesperson said, adding that such measures require unanimity among member states. In other words, Europe knew from day one that the Russian oil embargo was not going to work, and now, a year and a half later, is blame the lack of “unity” for this farce.
The bloc’s most recent sanctions package was aimed at tighten the cap’s enforcement, the spokesperson said; clearly the package did not achieve the “desired outcome.”
Of course, it’s not just Russia that is rolling in dough: by the time Urals cargoes get to India, the grade is trading at $88 a barrel — just $3.80 below than the global benchmark for physical cargoes, Dated Brent, Argus data show. When the nation’s ESPO crude leaves the port of Kozmino in eastern Russia, it is at $84 a barrel. It hasn’t been close to the price cap for about a year.
Bloomberg concludes that since last October, “the US Treasury has shown it’s prepared to punish companies for breaches of the price cap that happened in the past” however, given its desire to avoid any actions that disrupt the flow of crude — and risk higher prices — the rally in headline Brent futures to around $90 a barrel may temper any push to do so at this time.
In other words… well, this:
end
Texas gas is now trading 2.00 per million MMBTU as the gas has nowhere to turn.
(zerohedge)
Texas Nat Gas Prices Turn Negative As Drillers Chase Oil Sales
THURSDAY, APR 11, 2024 – 09:40 PM
Nat gas prices at the Waha hub in the Permian basin in Texas slumped to a negative price of -$2.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) this week as the recent rise in oil prices prompts producers to bring drilled but uncompleted wells online, OilPricereported.
As the U.S. benchmark oil price, West Texas Intermediate, hit $85 per barrel—the highest level in nearly six months, Texas producers keep pumping crude, but their wells also produce gas, which basically has nowhere to go.
While producers are chasing higher realizations for the crude they pump, they are depressing further an already depressed U.S. natural gas market, which has been oversupplied for months due to a milder winter and lower demand for heating and electricity.
Producers in West Texas are hit by the negative price of natural gas at the Waha hub, which means that they have to pay for someone to take that gas. But demand just isn’t there.
“They’re bringing these drilled, uncompleted wells online because the price of oil is higher,” Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities, told Bloomberg.
“It’s flooding the market with gas, and you’ve got no demand,” Kissler added.
Yet, signs have started to emerge that the natural gas glut may have started to hold back drilling in parts of the Permian basin.
U.S. oil producers are not in a rush to significantly boost crude production despite oil prices hovering at a six-month high, as multi-year low natural gas prices and higher costs are weighing on the industry, analysts and executives told Reuters earlier this month.
Oil producers in America are also mindful of the investor demands for higher returns, not necessarily higher production.
“Natural gas is currently pricing at or below costs of production,” an executive at an exploration and production company said in comments in the latest quarterly Dallas Fed Energy Survey released at the end of March.
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0656 DOWN .0070
USA/ YEN 153.31 UP .121 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2494 DOWN .0061
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3737 UP .0051 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 51 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 14.77 PTS OR .49%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 373.34 PTS OR 2.14%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .30%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 373.34 PTS OR 2.18%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.77 PTS OR .49%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.30 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 80.92 PTS OR 0.21%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2397.85
silver:$29.16
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 105.63 UP 57 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2375
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2681)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.36 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.841…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 7 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.508% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.610 DOWN 5 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.888 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2337.00
SILVER AT 11;30: 27.85
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIIDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 37.41 PTS OR 0.47%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 142.82 PTS OR 0.74%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 21.64 PTS OR 0.27%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 129 PTS OR 1.66%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 325.69PTS OR 0.96%
WTI Oil price 87.23 12: EST/
Brent Oil: 91.64 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 93.2640 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 2/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3510 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.170 DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0637 DOWN.0088 OR 88 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2444 DOWN .0110 or 110 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.1670 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .841
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 153. 19 UP 0.060//YEN down 6 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3786 UP .0099 CDN dollar DOWN 99
basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 85.43
Brent OIL: 90.14
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 7 BASIS pts to 4.508%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 5 BASIS PTS to 4.610%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 8 PTS AT 4.886%
USA dollar index: 105.83 DOWN 77 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.35 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 93,43 DOWN 0 AND 10/100 roubles
GOLD 2,337.10 3:30 PM
SILVER: 28.00 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 475.18 PTS OR 1.24%
NASDAQ UP 304.50 PTS OR 1.66%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 17.41 UP 2.50 PTS OR 16.77%
GLD: $216.89 DOWN .291 OR 1/32%
SLV/ $25.63 DOWN .38 OR 1.46%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Gold & The Dollar Surged This Week, Stocks & Crypto Purged As Reflation & WW3-Risk Wreck Rate-Cut Hopes
FRIDAY, APR 12, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Inflation fears/promises/threats were realized this week with CPI and PPI hot (yes PPI) and UMich infl exp rising too. Inflation data has been surprising to the upside all year and growth data not so much…
Source: Bloomberg
…and that rising inflation expectation wrecked the hopes and dreams of the doves this week, smashing expectations for The Fed to less than two total cuts in 2024 now priced in…
Source: Bloomberg
And even the armada of Fed Speakers launched today spoke as one…
*FED’S COLLINS: NOW SEE FED CUTTING LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
*FED’S GOOLSBEE: IF PCE REINFLATES, ‘WE WILL STABILIZE THE PRICES‘
*FED’S SCHMID: REASON TO THINK RATES WILL STAY HIGHER FOR LONGER
*FED’S BOSTIC: `I AM NOT IN A HURRY’ TO CUT INTEREST RATES
*FED’S DALY: NO URGENCY TO CUT INTEREST RATES
Even with today’s sudden slam-down, gold was impressive this week – interestingly rallying along with the USDollar on the week. Stocks were spanked but had a wild ride and today saw Bitcoin & Black Gold monkey-hammered (for no good reason)…
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks really did have a wild ride this week, plunging on CPI (wrecking the narrative), then rallying on a PPI print that was anything but dovish (as the algos took hold), only to get monkey-hammered today as ammo ran out and WW3 risks re0ignioted amid ‘imminent’ threats between Iran and Israel over attacks. By the end, all the US majors were back at the lows of the week, led by Small Caps and The Dow…
The S&P 500 suffered its worst weekly loss since October (second week lower in a row) and closed at one-month lows, while the median stock closed at two-month lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Energy stocks – which were the only sector green on the week as of last night’s close – were unceremoniously dumped today as all S&P sectors ended red with Financials the biggest losers (not a great day for JPM today)…
Source: Bloomberg
Notably, Goldman’s trading desk highlights the fact that The Magnificent 7 collectively have been net bought by hedge funds for a second straight week on the Prime book (following 6 straight weeks of net selling), suggesting a renewed focus on quality and balance sheet strength into the Q1 earnings season…
Source: Bloomberg
The group now makes up 19.6% of total US single stock Net exposure on the Prime book, up sharply from the YTD low of 16.9% in early March and approaching the record level of ~20% seen last summer…
Source: Goldman Sachs
Treasuries were bid today (yields down and stocks down) with yields down around 7-9bps across the board. On the week though, yields were higher, led by the short-end/belly of the curve. Obviously the big move was around CPI on Wednesday…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar roared higher this week (its biggest weekly gain since Sept 2022) to its highest since Nov 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
Crypto was clubbed like a baby seal today, with Bitcoin erasing the week’s gains and then some…
Source: Bloomberg
…and once again, the selling pressure was initiated from the perp futs markets….
Ethereum was even worse with ETH/BTC plunging back below recent support (which is also January support) to its lowest since April 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Some one was definitely not happy about the message that gold was sending this week and Benoit Gilson stomped on spot prices this afternoon after the precious metal soared to new record highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Silver outperformed Gold for the second week in a row, back to its strongest relative to gold since November…
Source: Bloomberg
…surging relative to gold early on today, before the big reversal…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude prices also had a wild ride this week amid “WW3-on / WW3-off” headlines…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, after the quarter-end surge in RRP usage, the liquidity withdrawals continue, falling to new cycle lows today, barely above $400BN…
Source: Bloomberg
Is it any wonder The Fed is rapidly looking to taper QT?
END
MORNING TRADING/
AFTERNOON TRADING/
II USA DATA
TUCKER CARLSON…
END
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
wow: 20 percent of San Francisco homes sold at a loss
(zerohedge)
Nearly 20% Of Recent San Francisco Home Sales Were Underwater
THURSDAY, APR 11, 2024 – 11:20 PM
Nearly 20% of homes sold in San Francisco during the three months ending Feb. 29 sold at a loss. What’s more, the typical SF homeowner took $155,500 less than they bought it for, which is 400% more in dollar terms than the nationwide median loss of $39,912 over the same period, Redfin reports, citing an internal analysis of county records and MLS data across the US.
San Francisco home sellers are far more likely than sellers in the rest of the country to lose money because home prices there have dropped dramatically since the pandemic homebuying boom. Still, the Bay Area is home to the most expensive real estate market in the U.S.
San Francisco’s median sale price peaked at $1.66 million in April 2022, and has since fallen 15% ($250,000) to $1.41 million as of February. The typical person who bought in San Francisco at nearly any point in 2021 or 2022, when the housing market was red hot due to ultra-low mortgage rates, would have taken a loss if they sold during the first few months of this year. –Redfin
“Home prices have fallen from their peak, especially when it comes to condos,” said real estate agent Christine Chang. “It’s not just because mortgage rates are high. San Francisco has lost some of its appeal post-pandemic. A lot of tech employers and big-name retailers have moved out of the city, and some of my clients have reported they’re leaving the area because they don’t feel as safe as they used to.“
Meanwhile…
According to the same report, Detroit came in second in terms of homes selling at a loss (10.8%) during the three months ending February 29, followed by three other Rust Belt and Midwestern metros: Cleveland (8.2%), St. Louis (8.1%) and Chicago (7.9%).
Sellers in those places are more likely than most to lose money because, like in San Francisco, home prices have fallen quite a bit from their pandemic peak. In Detroit, for instance, the median sale price is down roughly 20% from its pandemic peak.
Additionally, housing markets in Detroit and Chicago have suffered because they’re typically among the U.S. metros homebuyers are most likely to leave. -Redfin
Least likely to take a loss?
Homeowners in New England and Southern California were least likely to sell at a loss – with just 1.2% of homeowners who sold during the same period losing money.
This is followed by Boston, Anaheim, CA, Fort Lauderdale, FL, and San Diego, where roughly 2% of homes sold for less than the seller originally paid in each of those metros.
That said, the vast majority of sellers are still profitable on their home sales – even in San Francisco, where 82% of sellers took in more than they paid – with the typical seller banking $482,000 more than their cost basis over the period analyzed. Nationwide, 96% of sellers are postive on their sales, with a median gain of $196,016 thanks to the national media home price sitting just 5% below the all-time high set in mid-2022.
end
At least they can rule out Jewish and Muslim suspects;
More Than $12,000 In Pork Stolen From Truck In Northeast Philadelphia While Driver Slept
THURSDAY, APR 11, 2024 – 07:20 PM
Today in “signs that inflation continues to run out of control” news, more than $12,000 in pork was stolen from a Northeast Philadelphia truck this week, marking the 37th cargo theft in the area this year.
The thieves made off with 56 cases of pork, according to 6ABC Philadelphia.
As ABC noted, the location where the pork was stolen is a popular overnight stop for truckers en route to morning warehouse deliveries. However, it’s also become a hotspot for theft, with recent incidents on March 14 involving stolen bourbon and meat while drivers were asleep.
Captain Jack Ryan of the Philadelphia Police Dept. commented: “They are asleep in a lot of cases. The refrigerated trucks make a lot of noise.”
Trucker Mark Leighton said he has installed a “meat lock” to prevent such thefts. “In order to cut it off, you have to have a massive tool,” he told 6ABC. The suspects in this case escaped in a silver Lexus SUV.
Recall last year thieves also stole 2 million dimes worth $200,000 from a truck parked at a Philadelphia Walmart. The truck had $750,000 in dimes in it altogether. Many were found strewn about in a Walmart parking lot where the trailer was parked.
The dimes had been picked up at the Philadelphia Mint, but the driver of the truck went home to sleep before planning to drive the next day to Florida.
Capt. Jack Ryan of Northeast Detectives commented: “This is common practice – to pick up a load going to Florida and go home for the night, get to sleep, and get on the road in the morning.”
“They were trying to cross-load the dimes into other things. There are dimes all over the parking lot,” Ryan added, telling 6ABC.
end
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM…
end
end
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
END
SWAMP STORIES
Looks like Fani is going to get wiped again as they uncover more inconsistencies with that 480 grant she took.
‘Swag, Computers, And Travel’: Fani In Hot Seat Again After DOJ Uncovers ‘Inconsistencies’ With $480K Grant
THURSDAY, APR 11, 2024 – 05:20 PM
The Justice Department has uncovered “inconsistencies” in a $480,000 federal grant used by Fulton County DA Fani Willis, two years after she fired a whistleblower who warned against misusing it to pay for “swag,” computers, and travel.
According to the Washington Free Beacon, the grant is riddled with reporting discrepancies from Willis’ office.
“During our review of the award to respond to this inquiry, we have noticed some inconsistencies in what Fulton County has reported to [the Federal Subaward Reporting System] and we are working with them to update their reporting accordingly,” a DOJ spox told the outlet on Friday.
No further details were provided regarding the $488,000 grant – which was intended for the creation of a Center for Youth Empowerment and Gang Prevention in Atlanta. While the grant ended in September of last year, the center was never opened.
Jim Jordan
In early February, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) subpoenaed Willis for records related to the grant, as well as whistleblower allegations made by fired staffer Amanda Timpson, who was listed as the grant director until Willis fired her in January 2022.
Jordan threatened to hold Willis in contempt of Congress on March 14 after the district attorney responded to his subpoena with a “narrow set of documents” that had nothing to do with Timpson’s whistleblower allegations. Willis wrote in response that Jordan’s demands were “unreasonable and uncustomary” and suggested his investigation was an effort to derail her election interference case against former president Donald Trump. -Free Beacon
According to Timpson, she was demoted after attempting to stop a top Willis campaign aide, Michael Cuffee, from using part of the $488,000 grant to pay for “swag,” computers and travel.
“He wanted to do things with grants that were impossible, and I kept telling him, like, ‘We can’t do that,'” Timpson wrote Willis in a Nov. 19, 2021 meeting. “He told everybody … ‘We’re going to get MacBooks, we’re going to get swag, we’re going to use it for travel.’ I said, ‘You cannot do that, it’s a very, very specific grant.‘”
“I respect that is your assessment,” Willis replied. “And I’m not saying that your assessment is wrong.”
Willis later apologized to Timpson and said that Cuffee had “failed” her administration – yet less than two months later, Timpson was abruptly fired and escorted out of her office by seven armed investigators, according to Timpson.
After she filed a wrongful termination whistleblower complaint, Willis’ office said in a statement that Timpson was a “holdover from the prior administration” who was fired due to her “failure to meet the standards of the new administration.”
According to the Free Beacon:
Fulton County records show that Willis’s office transferred $88,900 from the federal gang prevention grant to the Offender Alumni Association. But the group’s administrative director, Toni Barnett, told the Free Beacon that she had no idea why the county was reporting making those payments to her group in 2022 and 2023.
“I have no idea where that information is coming from,” Barnett told the outlet on March 15. “I have no idea why you’re calling or where you’re getting that information from. You need to go to that government resource and you need to let that validate whatever you want to say or print. Because I don’t know what you’re talking about.”
A group of Republican state attorneys general are pushing back against U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland’s comments made in March at a church in Selma, Alabama, where he discussed using the Department of Justice (DOJ) to interfere in state voting laws.
Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita, in a letter supported by 15 other GOP prosecutors, including Ken Paxton in Texas and Liz Murrill in Louisiana, stated that Mr. Garland’s comments are “concerning.”
“In your speech, you claimed that democracy is under attack by ‘discriminatory, burdensome, and unnecessary restrictions on access to the ballot,’” Mr. Rokita wrote. “In response to these allegations, you announced that you ‘double[d] the number of lawyers in the civil rights division’ and ‘launched the Justice Department’s Election Threats Task Force,’ signaling your intent to intrude on our states’ authority.”
Mr. Rokita called this a “weaponization of the DOJ” fueled by Mr. Garland’s personal views, which he called a “serious threat to the principles of federalism and separation of powers, but also to democracy and the rule of law.”
In the letter, Mr. Rokita said the U.S. Constitution is clear in its direction to leave state elections up to the elected representatives of those states.
“Any subversion of these clear mandates would be undermining our Constitution and law and order,” he wrote. “And we think your remarks undermine these principles in a few ways.”
Mr. Garland told the audience at the Tabernacle Baptist Church that his DOJ is challenging state laws that he said are placing unneeded restrictions on black voters. He said black voters are disenfranchised by these restrictions on mail-in voting, the use of drop boxes, and voter ID.
“That is why we are working to block the adoption of discriminatory redistricting plans that dilute the vote of Black voters and other voters of color,” Mr. Garland said. “We are holding accountable jurisdictions that fail to provide accessible vote centers for voters with disabilities. We are defending the ability of private individuals—not just the government—to bring lawsuits under the key provisions of the Voting Rights Act and the Civil Rights Act of 1964.”
Voter Fraud: ‘Very Real’
Mr. Rokita addressed Mr. Garland’s statement on voter ID laws, stating that contrary to Mr. Garland’s claiming they are discriminatory, they prohibit voter fraud, which he called “very real,” and referenced several occurrences.
“With these repeated instances of voter fraud, the DOJ should be championing these laws and encouraging enforcement of them,” Mr. Rokita said. “Individuals are required to use an ID to prove identity when driving a car, boarding an airline, buying cigarettes, or purchasing alcohol, and none of these identification requirements are considered ‘discriminatory’ or ‘burdensome.’ Requiring an ID to vote in an election is no different.”
He then called out Mr. Garland’s claim that states imposed “unnecessary restrictions” on mail-in voting and drop boxes.
“Numerous security risks exist with mail-in voting and drop boxes, and these methods of voting have led to the proliferation of election fraud,” he said, citing multiple instances.
He then referenced Mr. Garland’s comment in which he said the Voting Rights Act (VRA) has been weakened by legislation.
“This statement is factually incorrect,” he said. “When the VRA was enacted in 1965, a limited number of jurisdictions required federal oversight over its state election laws to combat discrimination. The original intent of the VRA was to ensure that the rights of Americans were not infringed upon at the ballot box based on their race.”
The law justifiably singled out states that were restricting the right to vote but had always meant to be “temporary legislation.”
“The Voting Rights Act is not under attack,” Mr. Rokita said. “Election security measures passed by state governments do not ‘make voting more difficult,’ nor are they dismantling the right to vote. Instead, common sense election laws strengthen our electoral process to ensure free and fair elections are conducted among the states; especially since voter fraud does exist.”
However, the right to vote is under attack by progressive elected officials, he said, who are allowing illegal aliens to vote in elections.
“In some cases, courts found these laws unconstitutional, and rightly so,” he said.
State attorney generals must defend their laws, he said, most importantly during a time when the Biden administration’s border policy has made them vulnerable to intrusions and violations of sovereignty.
“Finally, as you mention, the Department of Justice is ‘fighting back’ against these commonsense election security measures passed by the states in numerous ways,” he said.
The expansion of federal attorneys in the DOJ’s Voting Section of the Civil Rights Division and the election task force suggests a federal interference that goes against what a constitutional republic is supposed to be about, he wrote.
“The DOJ’s expansion serves as a direct attack on the states’ role in regulating elections,” he said. “Instead of working with the states to secure elections, you suggest weaponizing the DOJ through the civil rights division to undermine anything that you subjectively believe is a ‘threat [to] democracy.’”
Mr. Rokita said Mr. Garland is only concerned with using the DOJ to build up the vote of the Democratic party.
“And by using the justice system in this way, you diminish any democratic principles you claim to defend,” he said.
The Epoch Times contacted the DOJ for comment.
KING REPORT
The King Report April 12, 2024 Issue 7220
Independent View of the News
US March PPI 0.2% m/m and 2.1% y/y; 0.3% m/m & 2.2% y/y expected. Core PPI 0.2% m/m & 2.4% y/y; 0.2% m/m & 2.3% y/y expected. This is the largest y/y PPI increase since April 2023. However, there is more to the story. It appears BLS chicanery crafted a lower PPI than reality.
@ernietedeschi: Auto insurance in PPI, which is what goes into PCE, came in much cooler than CPI in March month-to-month: 0.1%, versus CPI’s 2.6%. That difference alone will shave ~10bps off of monthly core PCE in March relative to core CPI.https://t.co/xxIrUXQ8SH
@nglinsman: PPI per BLS press release: prices for final demand goods was actually negative, dropping by 0.1% MoM – decline is attributable to the index for final demand energy, which moved down 1.6 percent. BUT, gas prices rose by 6.3% in March..the seasonal adjustment from the BLS! (Gas -3.6%!) https://twitter.com/nglinsman/status/1778435992166277147
@bespokeinvest: With yesterday’s CPI report, the four-year change in inflation reached 20.9%, the highest since January 1991. After next month’s report, the four-year rate of change will be the largest since December 1984.https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1778407868665929902?s=02 By July, the four-year change in the price of a stamp will have increased by over 30%, the highest level since the mid-1980s and 10 percentage points more than the rate of inflation.
@WallStreetSilv: It is not your imagination. The past 10 years have had crazy inflation on menu prices, well above the official govt rate (which is faked to be artificially low by govt statisticians). https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1778400102714921026
@ABC: USPS is proposing hiking the cost of a first-class stamp to 73 cents, or roughly 7%, on all forms of postage. Read more: https://t.co/Fa1yO2jzsq
@RealEJAntoni: Insane: 42% of spending (federal) in Mar was financed by new debt – and then Yellen scratches her head when Treasury auctions are horrendous, like today’s 10-year… https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1778260198445989991 In Oct, the 1st month of FY ’24, estimated interest on the debt for all of the FY was $1.003 trillion; in Mar, halfway through the FY, it jumped to $1.144 trillion; did reality change? No, it’s just that the gov’t-paid bean counters can’t ignore it anymore – expect it to worsen: https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1778249511422341486
@WallStreetSilv: March 2024 US govt revenue: Total Revenue $332 billion; Debt borrowing $236 billion; Total Spending $569 billion. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and interest on the debt exceeds all government revenue. Everything else in the budget has to be paid for with debt. This is on pace to be the first year that mandatory spending consumes 100% of government revenue. Defense, NASA, Agriculture, DOJ, FBI, Transportation and every other department of the government requires debt to fund it.
Lagarde Says ‘a Few’ Were Ready to Cut Rates Today – BBG 9:10 ET
European Central Bank holds interest rates, says cut ‘appropriate’ if inflation falls further: CNBC
@besttrousers: Reminder that the FOMC is still relatively dovish, compared to what you would expect from a FOMC using a Taylor rule trained on 1990s data. Interest rates under current conditions would be 8.5-9%!https://t.co/eASV1DPQZV
@ces921: Just in case anyone wanted to be gaslit further by the Fed saying that monetary policy is restrictive and financial conditions are still tight, we get the updated reading from the Chicago Fed’s Financial Conditions Index (one of the 4 indicators that Fed’s Logan said she watches) which shows a further loosening of financial conditions last week to lows (looseness) last seen before the Fed even started raising rates early in 2022. Enough is enough already. Policy isn’t restrictive. It’s accommodative. Inflation data out this morning confirms it. (See gold!) https://twitter.com/ces921/status/1778046576272781424
Fed’s Collins Says Data May Warrant, Later, Fewer Cuts this Year (The data warrants rate hikes!) “Incoming data have eased my concerns about an imminent need to reassess the stance of monetary policy,” said Collins, who doesn’t vote on monetary policy this year. “It may just take more time than previously thought for activity to moderate, and to see further progress in inflation returning durably to our target.”… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-collins-says-data-may-160000454.html
Most traders and experts focused on the ECB and US PPI. But the yen/$ shrugged off the verbal intervention of Japanese FX Chief Masato Kanda and hit 153.29 at 4:58 ET. After more verbal intervention, (“Whether this involves currency intervention or not, we authorities are prepared for all situations all the time” – Kanda), the yen/$ hit 152.80 at 8:49 ET. By 10:43 ET, the yen/$ was at 153.30.
Gold rallied sharply on the ECB and yen/$ situation – plus the toxic geopolitical environment.
How do we know the buying was earnings season related? The NY Fang+ Index was up sharply while the DJIA was -201 and change at 11:00 ET. We regularly note that the earnings season rally is largely due to the usual suspects pouring into Fangs/Mag 7 and related trading sardines for expected great results. The rally ends near the time that the last Fang, Apple, reports. Traders are insanely conditioned to play for this rally because the pattern has existed for many years.
ESMs traded modestly lower from 16 ET until they turned positive by 1.00 after the Nikkei closed. They quickly returned to the downside and broke down at 4:47 ET. ESMs hit a daily low of 5173.50 at 8:28 ET. With US March CPI and PPI out of the way, conditioned and pattern traders got jiggy for ESMs and stocks for the expected earnings season rally. ECB chief Lagarde’s dovish remarks aided bulls.
ESMs soared to a daily high of 5222.50 at 9:13 ET. The dump started before the NYSE opening. ESMs sank to 5256.50 at 13:35 ET. ESMs then fell to 5241.50 at 16:00 ET. The NY Fang+ Index was +2.8% at 15:50 ET. The usual suspects ignored intractable inflation, the end of Fed rate cuts delusions, and the ugly geopolitical landscape because they pined to play for the expected earnings season rally. This highly ingrained seasonal rally is typically led by Fangs and related trading sardines.
US 30-year Auction ($22B) Results: 4671% vs 4.661% WI, Bid-Cover 2.37; Dealer took 16%, the Fed reportedly monetized $362.8m of the 30-year auction – or the results would have been worse.
@unusual_whales: The largest office building in St. Louis has sold for $3.5 million, per WSJ. In 2006, it sold for $205 million. (A big part of the CRE crisis is urban crime & violence inducing flight)
Positive aspects of previous session The earning season rally commenced, led by Fangs and related trading sardines
Negative aspects of previous session Gold jumped as much as 1.96%; USMs declined 17/32 on inflation and another poor US auction The Fed had to monetize part of the US 30-year auction The DJIA declined 2.43 points
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Can ugly fundamental & the treacherous global scene thwart the earnings season rally?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5183.20 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5211.78; 5138.77
The Managerial Crisis Is a Systemic Crisis Videos of Boeing planes disintegrating in real time have taken the internet by storm over the first few months of the year… driven by a complete failure of Boeing to run a company that actually produces reliable products that people can depend on…. the company decided to use more than 81% of their profits over a 20 year period to buy $61B worth of stock back instead of reinvesting in their core product lines… They shook up the corporate culture and replaced their engineer-heavy management team… with a bunch of McKinsey zergs who pivoted the company away from focusing on their core competency and toward their stock price… The economy has become so fake and convoluted due to the proliferation of easy money… that it has enabled companies to place MBAs who read some HBR case studies and think they actually know how to build companies in positions of power… The pervasiveness of DEI and ESG policies… could only be thought up and pushed on the market by a bunch of Stanford MBAs who have never produced actual value outside of the stock market. https://www.tftc.io/the-managerial-crisis-is-a-systemic/
Americans are still not worried enough about the risk of world war China is now engaged in a proxy war against Europe The Ukraine War is a proxy war… the U.S. and Europe are contributing to Ukraine’s defense in order to keep Russia bogged down, because we all know that if Ukraine falls, the Baltics, Moldova, and eventually Poland are likely to be next on Putin’s menu… it’s very hard to know how much China is doing to provide Russia with drones and such under the table. But now, a year later, there are multiple credible reports that China is ramping up aid in various forms… First, it means U.S. influence over the conflict is a lot more limited than we like to think. Americans like to believe that we’re still the hegemon we were in 1999… And Vladimir Putin, emboldened by Chinese production and intelligence support, and having staked not only his legacy but his regime’s entire reason for existence on the conquest of territory in East Europe, will have little reason to stop fighting no matter what the U.S. says… The Ukraine War is now a proxy war between major powers that is almost totally out of America’s control. That is a bad sign for global stability… Asia is a tinderbox… China is becoming better prepared for war. The U.S. is not… First, the Chinese defense industrial base is increasingly on a wartime footing and, in some areas, outpacing the U.S. defense industrial base… Second, the U.S. defense industrial base continues to face a range of production challenges, including a lack of urgency in revitalizing the defense industrial ecosystem… We need to be talking about this on national TV, in the New York Times, on podcasts, and on whatever social media the CCP still doesn’t control. Right now, what I mostly hear is a deafening, horrible silence. https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/americans-are-still-not-worried-enough
@marklevinshow: Iranian general killed in air strike in Syria helped plan the October 7 attack. Biden-Blinken-Kirby still claim they’ve no evidence Iran was involved. Shameless, sickening liars. https://t.co/xVIkoFAQEz
GOP @SenDanSullivan: Iranian spy ships have been providing the Houthis with intelligence used to target American warships in the Red Sea. I asked the @SecDef and @GenCQBrownJr, why are we not sinking those ships?https://t.co/Zw5SD0Bfqm
Biden Administration Fears Iran Might Target U.S. Forces Over Israel Strike Iran threatens to attack the U.S. if it assists Israel in defending against any Damascus retaliation. On Monday night, Iran conveyed to the Biden administration that if it involved itself in defending Israel were Tehran to undertake a retaliatory strike, it would consider the United States a viable target as well. The issue was discussed at a Tuesday NSC meeting, according to notes reviewed by The Intercept… https://theintercept.com/2024/04/10/iran-israel-strike/
GOP Sen. @marcorubio: Iran wants to launch a large scale attack from their own territory against Israel. Israel will respond instantly with an even more severe counterattack inside of Iran. What happens next is the most dangerous Middle East moment since 1973. @JMichaelWaller: If this goes nuclear, thank the Obama-Biden Iran Deal, the uniparty’s arms-control doctrine, and the [Obama-controlled] Biden appeasement of Iran and attempts to save Hamas.
Iran aims to contain fallout in Israel response, won’t be hasty, sources say A source familiar with U.S. intelligence was not aware of the message conveyed via Oman but said Iran has “been very clear” that its response to the attack on its Damascus embassy compound would be “controlled” and “non-escalatory” and planned “to use regional proxies to launch a number of attacks on Israel.”.. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-aims-contain-fallout-israel-response-wont-be-hasty-sources-say-2024-04-11/
Fed Balance Sheet: -$1.382B; Reserves at Fed: +172.6B (Taxes due Monday, +$121B last year)
@ReutersBiz: Fed chair Jerome Powell witnessed stronger-than-expected inflation numbers for the third time. With an election looming and price growth still high, his best option may be to go for fewer than three rate cuts but make them bigger, says @guerreraf72 (How stupid is this?) https://reut.rs/49yHlSN
Today – Q1 earnings results season officially commences with Big Banks reporting results. Yesterday, the usual suspects manically bought Fangs, trading sardines, and ESMs in anticipation of earnings season rally. Right now, a lone seasonal bias is driving stocks higher.
Expected economic data: Mar Import Prices 0.3% m/m & 0.3% y/y, Export Prices 0.3% m/m & -1.2% y/y; April UM Sentiment 79, Current Conditions 81.3, Expectations 78, 1-yr Inflation 2.9%, 5-yr 2.8%
Fed Speakers: Boston Pres Collins 9:00 ET, KC Pres Schmidt 13:00 ET, Atlanta Pres Bostic 14:30 ET, SF Pres Daly 15:30 ET
ESMs are -1.75; USMs are -1/32; the ¥/$ is 153.14; and June Gold is +21.60 (2394.30) at 20:12 ET.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5106; 100-day MA: 4905; 150-day MA: 4715; 200-day MA: 4655 DJIA 50-day MA: 38,895; 100-day MA: 37,915; 150-day MA: 36,552, 200-day MA: 36,104 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5199.06 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4539.68 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5045.79 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5286.43 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5146.25 triggers a sell signal
Ex-DJT DNI @RichardGrenell: Joe Biden was a disaster at the State Dinner for Japan. The propaganda media is trying to cover up for Joe but the American people are seeing the videos and are once again shocked by his feebleness. The media coverup is a crisis.
@RNCResearch: Watch the reflection in Biden’s sunglasses — he’s reading the entire answer VERBATIM from his notes. Biden is NOT WELL. https://t.co/1tgBREcFly
Biden admin pressured Snopes to change its fact-check rating on rumored gas stove ban, internal emails show (Yes, Virginia, the US operates under a Ministry of Truth.) https://t.co/gGNZcR1hcp
Republicans should have addressed and rectified NPR bias decades ago. But they are Republicans.
WaPo Harasses Veteran’s Wife After He Refused to Engage on Alleged Hit Piece Against Tim Sheehy – after the veteran refused to participate in an alleged hit piece on Sheehy. Sheehy is running for the Montana Senate seat currently held by Democratic Sen. Jon Tester… “The Washington Post is no longer a media outlet — it’s now the propaganda arm of the Democratic Party. These ‘journalists’ are smearing Tim Sheehy because they know he’ll fight for Montana values and against Biden’s policies,” Republican Arkansas Senator and veteran Tom Cotton told the Caller.https://dailycaller.com/2024/04/10/tim-sheehy-navy-veteran-washington-post-hit-piece-wife/
The Pro-Hamas Crowds Will Soon Have a Rendezvous with Reality – Victor David Hanson Recently, they have jumped the shark with unapologetic chants of “Death to America”. Or so a cheering crowd in Michigan chanted in homage to the late king of all Western-hostage-takers, the murderous Ayatollah Khomeini… The more these demonstrators shut down major bridges at commute hour, defaced iconic government monuments and cemeteries, disrupted Easter and Christmas services (try that with mosques at Ramadan), broke into the Capitol and congressional chambers (no January 6-like penalties to come?), and hunted down Jewish students, the bolder they became…News is leaking out that Hamas may have for some time been bluffing about a ceasefire for hostages. Given Hamas has suddenly announced that they cannot meet the conditions of the proposed ceasefire, since not all the forty women and sick and elderly men taken hostage are still alive. If true, then their months of bartering and “negotiating” were a likely sham… For the first time since the ‘60s, universities are facing protests that they genuinely fear. College presidents are starting to realize that if they continue to allow the pro-Hamas violent demonstrators to make a mockery of campus rules and laws, they soon will have no campus at all…Yet at Vanderbilt and Pomona we for the first time are witnessing a return to administrative sanity, marked by suspensions and exemptions…Joe Biden’s pandering in Michigan is reaching the point of obscenity and if continued will be counter-productive…Biden is so confident of the Jewish-American vote and donor class that he is now siding with those calling for the absolute destruction of the Jewish state and everyone inside…In sum, the more brazen the pro-Hamas crowd and the more they reveal the cravenness of the Biden administration,the more they may ensure their rendezvous with Donald Trump in 2025. https://twitter.com/VDHanson/status/1778248796998434825?s=02
The WaPo is under fire for an incendiary, race-baiting headline that omits an important fact.
Police fire 96 shots in 41 seconds, killing Black man during traffic stop (Chicago) https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/04/10/dexter-reed-shooting-video-chicago-police/ @TPogasic: It took eight paragraphs to mention he shot at the police first (Reportedly 11 shots at cops). What could be the end goal of this deceptive reporting from WAPO? @KyleSeraphin: When racial grievances are your goal, honesty is an obstacle. @BuckSexton: Whatever contempt you feel toward the Democrat corporate media, it’s not enough. This headline is dishonest, malicious, and intended to incite violence and mayhem. @greg_price11: The funniest part about the media’s attempts to turn Dexter Reed into the next George Floyd is that they’re all using a picture of him graduating high school (the guy was 26) instead of his mugshot from 5 months ago. https://t.co/oIQUq2GIAu
Rihanna’s Hypocrisy: Disrespects Christians and Hindus, Yet Begs for Muslims’ Forgiveness Rihanna, the famous singer and fashion influencer, has once again ignited controversy, this time by posing as a “sexy nun” on the cover of Interview Magazine’s latest issue… Rihanna is not wrong to be concerned about the consequences of making Muslims angry. Muslims have put the free world on notice: if you insult Muhammad, Islam, their holy books, or even fail to consider Islamic law (Sharia) in all things, we will harm you. Under Sharia, those who insult Muhammad or Allah are to be executed… For decades, we’ve observed a pattern where corporations and institutions yield to the demands or perceived grievances of Muslims regarding Islamic imagery… https://rairfoundation.com/rihannas-hypocrisy-disrespects-christians-hindus-yet-begs-muslims/?s=02
@OzraeliAvi: Why has Tucker Carlson turned on Israel since launching his new media venture? Does it have anything to do with his backer, Omeed Malik, the son of immigrants from Pakistan and Iran?…
Tucker Carlson raises $15M for new media company – The money comes from 1789 Capital, which was founded by banker Omeed Malik to invest in “anti-ESG” companies… Malik and Carlson have a long history, as the former banker once backed The Daily Caller, which Carlson co-founded in 2010… https://www.axios.com/2023/10/17/tucker-carlson-new-media-company-15-million
Hidden Behind Climate Policies, Data from Nonexistent Temperature Stations The problem, say experts, is that an increasing number of USHCN’s stations don’t exist anymore.
The latest inflation numbers came in this week, and it says inflation is everywhere. Gasoline is up 6.3%, the Consumer Price Index is up 3.5%, rent, electricity, water and sewer are all up at least 5% and the Fed is realizing it is not cutting interest rates. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says you might even get a rate increase. Bidenomics = inflation.
Where is the inflation coming from? War spending in the hundreds of billions of dollars in Ukraine and more being spent every day so we can have war everywhere. Then, there are the billions of bucks spent on taking care of illegal immigrants and poor Biden Administration policies that we would not have if he was not cheated in in 2020. Yes, I said Biden was cheated in, and the evidence is overwhelming and obvious. Let’s stop pretending Biden is legit. The cheating is why so many things are screwed up in the world, and they are doing it again, according to Tucker Carlson who summed it up perfectly and succinctly last week. Listen to this brilliant description of the nationwide cheating in 2024 for yourself, and you will agree.
Top virologist Geert Vander Bossche is warning of an “imminent tsunami of death among the highly vaccinated.” Vander Bossche says this will replace the huge surge of cancers caused by the CV19 vax and will be replaced by an even bigger surge of death. You can couple that with the warnings about “Bird Flu” taking off and transmitting to humans. This is just in time for the World Health Organization (WHO) to execute its plan to take over the world in the next pandemic and cancel all your rights.
Financial expert Ed Dowd, author of “Cause Unknown,” has chilling new information on the damage the CV19 injections are doing to society, supply chains, the workforce and the funeral homes. The data is undeniable and getting worse—much worse, according to Dowd. He will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post.
The Truth Barrier
harveyorganblog.com 
