GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $9.30 TO $2366.90
SILVER PRICE UP $0.46 TO $28.72
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2385.10.
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $28.86
The defense of $2300 gold is now upon us and surpassed. Next up $2400 gold//Silver’s next line is $28.42. Then $34.76
With gold and silver massively higherl, the crooks used their massive paper shorts to whack the prices lower. Nothing really changed. We will go through this again on Monday once China enters the market
Bitcoin morning price:$66,300 DOWN 300 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $63,404 DOWN 3196 dollars
Platinum price closing UP $8.80 TO $987.30
Palladium price; UP $16.65 AT $1058.30
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 64 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD
SHANGHAI GOLD……
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Last Updated 15 Apr 2024 12:51:31 PM CT.
Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.
…from the CME….
“As of Monday, April 1, 2024, CME Group settlement data is no longer accessible through ftp.cmegroup.com and has a delayed publication time of 12:00 a.m. CT on all cmegroup.com web pages. Learn about alternate ways to access the data in our FAQ.”
Now I retrieve the data after 1 am
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros
4: 15 PM ACCESS
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3287.40 UP 60.25 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,287.40 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//APRIL 15 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1915.98 UP 26.20 pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1915.98 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 15/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2244.74 UP 33.79 euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2244.74 EUROS PER OZ//APRIL 15.2024)
DONATE
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
EXCHANGE: COMEX
ACCESS MARKET
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,356.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/12/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 04/16/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 8
190 H BMO CAPITAL 2
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 107
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 151
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 10
661 C JP MORGAN 232 17
690 C ABN AMRO 10 5
726 C CUNNINGHAM COM 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 27 3
905 C ADM 15 3
TOTAL: 296 296
JPMORGAN STOPPED (RECEIVED) 17/296 CONTRACTS
FOR APRIL/2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2024. CONTRACT: 296 NOTICES FOR 29600 OZ or 0.9206 TONNES
total notices so far: 14,247 contracts for 1,424,700 Oz (44.314 tonnes)
FOR APRIL:
SILVER NOTICES: 287 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1,436,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1439 for 7,195,000 oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $9.30
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ :
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 826.72 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 826.72 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 46 CENTS AT THE SLV// (THIS MAKES LOTS OF SENSE!)
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 433.929 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FE;; BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 3939 CONTRACTS TO 14.962 AND RAPIDLY CLOSING IN ON THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR SMALLISH GAIN IN PRICE OF $.10 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION WITH AGAIN PANICKING SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE SMALL PRICE GAIN. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 1294 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: 1294 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.10), AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1879 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE SMALLISH GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.10.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUMONGOUS SIZED 2040 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 2.465 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1,695,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING 8.075 MILLION OZ//
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 8.075 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1294 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED A WHOPPING XX CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 days, total 17,518 contracts: OR 87.590 MILLION OZ (1593 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 87.590 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 87.590 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3919 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR SMALLISH GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 2040 ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL. OF 2.465 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAYS’ 1,695,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING RISES TO 8.075 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1879 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE SMALLISH GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1294 CONTRACTS,//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT (1294) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 287 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1,435,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG 9407 SIZED OI CONTRACTS TO 513.870 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 3448 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (9407 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $2.80 GAIN IN PRICE//FRIDAY. THE BANKERS WERE FORCED TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO CONTAIN GOLD’S RISE. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL. AT 44.8615 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 35,600 OZ.(1.1109 TONNES)
NEW STANDING 45.427 TONNES// ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $2.80 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF OI CONTRACTS (16.534 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4091 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 513.870
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5316 CONTRACTS WITH 9407 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 4091 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5316 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED 5718 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4091 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (9407) //TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5316 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 44.8615 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1.1090 TONNES QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING 45.427 TONNES.
/ 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE.
// 4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 5718 CONTRACTS/ HUGE SHORT COVERING BY OUR WRONG FOOTED SPECS WITH THE FED RAID ON THE COMEX GOLD.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
APRIL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 44,273 CONTRACTS OR 4,427,300 OZ OR 137.70 TONNES IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4024 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 137.70 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 137.70/3550 x 100% TONNES 3.94% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 137,70 TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 3919 CONTRACTS OI TO 174,962 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 2040 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 450 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2040 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 3919 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2040 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1879 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTAL 9.395 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALLISH $0.10 GAIN IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 37.91 PTS OR 1.26% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 121.23 PTS OR 0.73% / Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 290.75 PTS OR 0.76% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.51%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.23786//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.2591 /Oil DOWN TO 84/97 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 89..76/ Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG 9407 CONTRACTS TO 513,370 DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.80 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY TRADING. WE HAD STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AS WELL AS SHORTS ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO GET OUT OF THEIR NAKED SHORTS.THE VOLUME ON THE COMEX WAS A MEGA HUMONGOUS 513,870.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 4091 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 4091 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4091 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 5316 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4091 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 9407 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.80 FRIDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS A HUGE SIZED 5718 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THE ENTIRE RAID ON FRIDAY WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK WHICH SUPPLIED ALL THE VOLUME)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (45.427 TONNES) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 45.427 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $2.80 //// AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME MINOR SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED SIZED LOSS OF 9407 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE 0F $2.80.
WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF FRIDAY’S TRADING ALONG. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 16/534 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL. (44.8615 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 23,200 OZ (0.9269 TONNES)//NEW STANDING; 45.427 TONNES
NEW STANDING: 45.427 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $2.80
WE HAD REMOVED 3448 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5316 CONTRACTS OR 531,600 (16.534 TONNES)
estimated gold volumes/Friday 517,162 huge
confirmed volume Friday: 517,162 huge
//speculators have left the gold arena
APRIL 15/ INITIAL APRIL GOLD
/ /// THE APRIL 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | oz nil 98,085.000 OZ BRINKS . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil oz |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 296 notice(s) 29600 OZ 0.9206 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 358 contracts 35800oz 1.113 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 14,247 notices 1,424,700 oz 44.314 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Brinks: 98,085.000 oz
total customer withdrawal: 98,085.000 oz
we had total deposit 0 oz
Adjustments: 1
i) out of JPMorgan: dealer to customer 9645.300 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL.
For the front month of APRIL we have an oi of 654 contracts having GAINED 84 contracts. We had 272 contracts served on FRIDAY, so we GAINED 356 contracts or an additional 35600 oz (1.107 tonnes) will stand at the comex
MAY LOST 19 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1985
JUNE DECREASED ITS OI BY 15,410 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 416.507 CONTRACTS.
We had 296 contracts filed for today representing 29,600 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 232 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 296 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 17 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (14,247 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (654 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 296 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,460,500 OZ OR 45.427 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL. contract month: No of notices filed so far (14,247) x 100 oz + (654) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (296) x 100 oz which equals 1,460,500 oz (45.427 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL: 44.320 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,619,750.738 50.38 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,484,087.568OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,521,434.237 (233.948 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9962,653.351 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,901,683 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 183.56 tonnes/dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
APRIL 15
INITIAL
//2024// THE APRIL 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 665,170.430 oz CNT Delaware HSBC Loomis . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | nil |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 287 CONTRACT(S) (1.435,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 176 contracts (880,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1439 Contracts (7,195,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit :nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 deposits customer account:
total customer deposits nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 130.383 million oz/291.091 million or 44.91%
adjustment: 0
Comex withdrawals: 4
i) Out of CNT: 49,984.828 oz
ii) Out of Delaware: 19,950.093 oz
iii) Out of HSBC 195,153.110 oz
iv) Out of Loomis 400,153.110 oz
total withdrawal: 665,170.430 oz
adjustment: 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 46.766MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 291.091million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2023 OI: 463 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 82 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 421 CONTRACTS SERVED ON FRIDAY, SO WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS 339 CONTRACTS OR ADDITIONAL 1,695,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX UNDERGOING A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP
MAY SAW A LOSS OF 7089 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 84,760
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 228 CONTRACTS RISING TO 656
JULY SAW A GAIN OF 2680 CONTRACTS UP TO 66,937
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 287 for 1,435,000 oz
ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR FRIDAY: AN ASTRONOMICAL 227,833 CONTRACTS
Comex volume: confirmed Friday 227,833 wow!!.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1439 x 5,000 oz = 7,195,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (463) and the number of notices served upon today 287x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL/2024 contract month: 1439 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL. (463) – number of notices served upon today (287 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month equates to 8.075 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 8.075 million oz.
There are 46.756 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
APRIL 15 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 826.72 TONNES
APRIL 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISESS AT 830.75 TONNES
APRIL 11 WITH GOLD UP $25.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.25 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLSS AT 828.46 TONNES
APRIL 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 828.71 TONNES
APRIL 9 WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 827,85 TONNES
APRIL 8 WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 826.41 TONNES
APRIL 5 WITH GOLD UP $38.65 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 832.45 TONNES
APRIL 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $3.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.73 TONNES
APRIL 3 WITH GOLD UP $33,85 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // INVENTORY REMAINS AT 829.00 TONNES
APRIL 2 WITH GOLD UP $23.90 TODAY; HUG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITH DRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 829.00 TONNES
APRIL 1 WITH GOLD UP $18.70 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 28 WITH GOLD UP $26.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 27 WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY FALLS TO 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 26 WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 835.33 TONNES
MARCH 25 WITH GOLD UP $17.05 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 838.50 TONNES
MARCH 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.75 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 838.50 TONNES
MARCH 21 WITH GOLD UP $24.80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:INVENTORY RISES TO 838.50 TONNES
MARCH 20 WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:INVENTORY RISES TO 837.35 TONNES
MARCH 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:INVENTORY RISES TO 833.32 TONNES
MARCH 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $5.20 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY REMAINS AT 816.86 TONNES
MARCH 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY REMAINS AT 816.86 TONNES
MARCH 13 WITH GOLD UP $14.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY REMAINS AT 815.13 TONNES
MARCH 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $21.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:NOT AVAILABLE///LAST VALUE 815.13 TONNES
MARCH 11 WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD AFTER 7 CONSECUTIVE GOLD PRICE RISES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 815.13 TONNES
MARCH 8 WITH GOLD UP $21.05 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD AFTER 7 CONSECUTIVE GOLD PRICE RISES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 816.57 TONNES
MARCH 7 WITH GOLD UP $7.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4,20 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 817.44 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 827.72 TONNES
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
APRIL 15/WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.069 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.23 TODAY: STRANGE INDEED! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.931 MILLION OZ :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.998 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10/WITH SILVER UP $0.04 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP $0.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.549 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.33 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.320 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.328 MILLION OZ
APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP $0.61 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.748 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 4/WITH SILVER UP $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.671 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.312 MILLION OZ
APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.14 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.835 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.641 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 84 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 6.721 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.806 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.085 MILLION OZ
MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.085 MILLION OZ
MARCH 27/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A A DEPOSIT OF 1.691 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.079 MILLION OZ
MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A A DEPOSIT OF 0.366 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 421.388 MILLION OZ
MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.887 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 421.022 MILLION OZ
MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.1899 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.909 MILLION OZ
MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.560 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.720 MILLION OZ
MARCH 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 11.792 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.280 MILLION OZ
MARCH 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 11.792 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.280 MILLION OZ
MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.006 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 417.866 MILLION OZ
MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.872 MILLION OZ
MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.872 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.549 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.872 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 11/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.147 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.323 MILLION OZ…SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD!
MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.299 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 420.519 MILLION OZ…SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD!
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.665 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.818 MILLION OZ…SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD!
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.378 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427,105 MILLION OZ
MARCH 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.499 MILL;ION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.483 MILLION OZ
MARCH 4/WITH SILVER UP CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.982 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.982 MILLION OZ
FEB 29/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430/982 MILLION OZ
FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.123 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.086 MILLION OZ
FEB 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.64 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.943 MILLION OZ
FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.065 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.603 MILLION OZ
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.065 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.603 MILLION OZ
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV
// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.766 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.348 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.766 MILLION OZ
FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.385 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.008 MILLION OZ
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.235 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.393 MILLION OZ
FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 56 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 60 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.504 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.921 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.119 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 600,000 OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.040 MILLION OZ
FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ
FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.04 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ//LAST 9 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
CLOSING INVENTORY 433.929 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFFGOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
END
2.Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens/…
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA
At a Brooklyn pawn shop, customers are flooding in to sell gold
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2024-04-14 14:23 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Yvonne Yue Li, Jack Ryan, and Sybilla Gross
Bloomberg News
Sunday, April 14, 2024
Investors and metals traders can’t agree on what exactly is behind gold’s recent rally. At King Gold & Pawn in Brooklyn, the customers don’t care. They just want to sell.
For some, sky-high values simply mean it’s a good time to cash in; It’s hard to ignore record prices that climbed above $2,400 an ounce last week. For others, it’s a more desperate move to get money for bills and rent. Whatever the need, what’s clear is jewelers and pawn shops are seeing a flood of sellers.
“People are using gold as an ATM they never had,” said Gene Furman, owner of King Gold & Pawn and Empire Gold Buyers. At Furman’s 5th Avenue store, the number of people coming in selling and pawning gold jewelry is more than three times above normal levels since prices started to rally in late February.
Among them is Branden Sabino, a 30-year-old IT specialist, who sold a gold necklace and a gold ring last week.
“Prices are high, and I need cash,” he said, adding that with the cost of rent, groceries, and car insurance rising, he doesn’t have any savings.
The speed and magnitude of gold’s ascent are astonishing — since the 2024 low in mid-February, it has rallied 17%.
… For the remainder of the report:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/at-a-brooklyn-pawnshop-customers-are-flooding-in-to-sell-gold-1.2058836
end
Zimbabwe’s gold-backed currency surges amid market skepticism
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2024-04-14 14:55 Section: Daily Dispatches
From Xinhua, Beijing
Sunday, April 14, 2024
HARARE, Zimbabwe — Zimbabwe’s newly launched gold-backed currency, known as the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG), has hit the ground running, gaining 1.1% against the U.S. dollar in its first week of trading.
The surge aligns with the robust rise in gold prices, driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The ZiG replaced the inflation-battered old Zimbabwean dollar and started trading on Monday, following its launch by Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Governor John Mushayavanhu on April 5.
Zimbabwe’s sixth currency solution, ZiG, debuted at 13.56 per U.S. dollar on Monday and sustained its upward trend, closing at 13.41 per U.S. dollar by the end of Friday’s trading.
Despite initial market confusion surrounding the new currency, most banks, traders, and businesses successfully converted their old Zimbabwe dollar balances to ZiG. This sets the stage for ZiG to circulate alongside other foreign currencies under Zimbabwe’s multi-currency regime, which will remain in place until 2030. …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://english.news.cn/20240414/c3c6980e4bae420db9e095b3b537e66e/c.html
end
China’s gold markets are under strain as new buyers hunt for stable investment
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2024-04-14 15:42 Section: Daily Dispatches
By He Huifeng
South China Morning Post, Hong Kong
Sunday, April 14, 2024
April has been a busy month for the Hualin International Jewelry Market in Guangzhou. A scrum of eager buyers has descended upon the venue, looking to join a new gold rush as prices soar and the precious metal takes on new life as a vehicle for investment.
Standing out as one of the few bets considered safe in China at present — with stocks, property and banking having lost their lustre in an environment of heightened uncertainty — gold has not only attracted new buyers, but also provided opportunities for the country’s middle class and youth to cash out.
The Guangzhou market, originally known for its bustling jade and jewellery trade, has been “flooded” with newly opened gold stores, with dozens emerging according to a store owner earlier this week.
“The number of customers is also increasing day by day,” said the owner, who asked not to be identified. “Sometimes it feels like a crowded wet market.”
Rapid price changes have made for a mercurial scene. “From the beginning of the year until now, there have been customers buying gold bars for tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of yuan,” he said. “But since the current price is extremely high, consumers are becoming cautious. Most of the new customers are buying products with lower grams.”
According to another merchant, many have begun to sell their stock. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
Not enough silver to support more paper slams, Turk tells King World News
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2024-04-14 16:04 Section: Daily Dispatches
4p ET Sunday, April 14, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):
Commenting to Eric King at King World News, GoldMoney founder James Turk says silver’s sharp fall on Friday began when the London physical market closed and the New York paper market took over. But Turk thinks it unlikely that there will be too many more paper slams of silver because some metal is needed to support such slams and the shorts just don’t have enough.
Turk’s comments can be found at King World News here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
end
Looks like even the Financial Times is starting to concede to gold
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-04-15 08:27 Section: Daily Dispatches
More remarkably, this pro-gold commentary was posted by the newspaper in the clear today.
* * *
Gold is back, and it has a message for us
By Rana Foroohar
Financial Times, London
Monday, April 15, 2024
It’s easy to mock gold bugs, but their moment may finally have come. The precious metal has been breaking out recently amid higher than expected inflation in the United States, and general anxiety over everything from geopolitics to the November presidential elections to where monetary policy and markets go from here.
All these things are predictable reasons for gold to surge. But there are deeper, longer-term messages in this rise that investors should pay very close attention to.
Let’s start with inflation. Whatever happens over the next few quarters, I’ve long thought that we were in for a period of “higher for longer” inflation. Aside from the possibility of a technology-driven productivity miracle, it’s hard to think of a macro-trend at the moment that isn’t inflationary. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
https://www.ft.com/content/bdcb7d8a-e958-4910-9d1b-a6a519812503
* * *
end
Subscribe to The Calandra Report, make money, and help GATA
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-04-15 08:46 Section: Daily Dispatches
8:45a Monday, April 15, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver and other metals):
Mining company shares are taking off as governments are issuing infinite money and incurring infinite debt, and Thom Calandra of The Calandra Report (at Thomcalandra.com) is connecting with newly subscribed GATA supporters and sharing with them his insights about producing gold and silver mines and gold and silver explorers in the Yukon, Quebec, Nevada, Mexico, Ghana, and elsewhere.
Let’s not forget the physical gold, platinum, silver, and copper trusts — Thom owns plenty.
Thom’s special discount subscription offer for GATA and its supporters is available again. Details are below.
The latest edition of The Calandra Report is here:
The Calandra Report has a heavy emphasis on the miners, and at least until the virus epidemic came around, it was a rare week when Thom wasn’t inspecting and questioning them in places far and wide.
4. OTHER MAJOR GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS/LIVE FROM THE VAULT
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES/COPPER AND OTHER METALS
(Bloomberg)
US, UK Ban Deliveries Of Russian Copper, Nickel And Aluminum To Western Metals Exchanges: Here’s What This Means — How to shoot yourself in the foot. What an imbeciles !!!
US, UK Ban Deliveries Of Russian Copper, Nickel And Aluminum To Western Metals Exchanges: Here’s What This Means
SUNDAY, APR 14, 2024 – 02:45 PM
On Friday, the US and UK imposed new restrictions on trading Russian aluminum, copper and nickel in the latest hollow bid to curb President Vladimir Putin’s ability to fund his war machine (as discussed previously, Russian oil is now trading above the western embargo “cap” price virtually everywhere).
According to Bloomberg, the rules prohibit delivery of new supplies from Russia to the London Metal Exchange, where the global benchmark prices are set, as well as to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.The restrictions apply to copper, nickel and aluminum produced on or after April 13, and the US is also banning Russian imports of all three metals.
Yet like the case of oil sanctions, the decision is purely for popular theater as it will notprevent Russia from being able to sell its metals, since the sanctions do not prevent non-US persons and entities from buying physical Russian copper, nickel or aluminum. While the LME plays a pivotal role in setting global prices, the vast majority of metals are bought and sold between miners, traders and manufacturers without ever seeing the inside of an LME warehouse. Already since 2022, the share of Russian metals sales to China has increased substantially, as some western buyers sought alternative suppliers.
Still, as Bloomberg notes, the new restrictions are likely to affect prices on the LME, which are used as a benchmark in a huge number of contracts around the world. For months, an influx of Russian metal has weighed on LME prices – particularly for aluminum – with non-Russian supplies trading at a premium.
The sanctions will also affect the willingness of traders to handle Russian metal,as many view the ability to deliver on the LME as essential, and some contracts include clauses specifying that they will be void if the metal ceases to be LME-deliverable.
That means the metal – like Russian sourced oil – is likely to trade at a widening discount to other origins, thus reducing the revenue Russia receives, while still continuing to flow into the global market and avoiding the impact of full-scale sanctions on crucial raw materials while making billions more for global commodity merchants like Glencore, Vitol and Trafigura who will be willing – and very well paid – middlemen to assist buyers in evading sanctions. Russian metals exports were worth $25 billion in 2022 and $15 billion in 2023.
“We will reduce Russia’s earnings while protecting our partners and allies from unwanted spillover effects,” US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a joint statement with her UK counterpart, Jeremy Hunt, who added that the move “will prevent the Kremlin funneling more cash into its war machine.”
No you won’t. All you will achieve is raising the prices of commodities further, but yes, the sanction will raise questions for Glencore which has remained one of the biggest traders of Russian metal thanks to a long-term contract with Rusal.
Russia is a major producer of the three metals, accounting for about 6% of global nickel production, 5% of aluminum and 4% of copper. However, Russian supplies account for a much larger percentage of metal on the LME. At the end of March, Russian metal accounted for 36% of the nickel in LME warehouses, 62% of the copper and 91% of the aluminum.
Comex copper futures rose after the announcement, while shares of US metal producers including Alcoa Corp. gained in post-market trading.
For a more practical perspective of what the sanctions mean, we go to commodity trading powerhouse Goldman Sachs, whose trading desk has published a note discussing the short and long-term impacts of the delivery ban.
Is this a full sanction on Russian metal ? No, OFAC prohibit:
- a. Russian metal being imported into the US
- b. OTC derivates settling against Russian metal
- c. US persons’ from warranting Russian metal produced after 13th April 2024 on either the COMEX or LME.
- There has not been any sanction around the consumption of Russian metal.
How much aluminium, copper and nickel does the US currently import ? Very little, imports for 2021, 2022 and 2023 respectively were
- Aluminium (HS code 7601): 215k, 190k, 17k MT
- Copper (HS code 7408 + 7403): 10k, 0k, 0k MT
- Nickel (HS code 7502): 5k, 10k , 0.6k MT
- Therefore Goldman expects the impact on US physical premiums to be modest because US consumers have already diversified their supply chains away from Russian metal
Are many OTC derivatives settled against Russian metal ? Goldman does notthink the Services Determination clause prohibiting settlement of derivatives in Russian metal will impact price because.
- i) Most OTC derivatives are cash settled; in our experience brand specific physically settled options and swaps are rare
- ii) Off-take agreements and long-term supply contracts, which probably still do reference Russian metal, are likely not to be classified as a derivative under the Services Determination clause (otherwise end-users would be prevented from consuming Russian metal which would be a de-facto full sanction).
What happens to LME inventory? Unclear until we receive further guidance from the LME, which is scheduled for 11am LDN on Sunday. Currently neither UK nor US persons’ can deliver fresh Russian metal. The question market participants are asking is whether the LME will restrict all future deliveries of Russian metal (not just from UK or US persons).
What % of LME inventory is currently Russian? As of March 28, the LME provided the following breakdown:
- Aluminium: 312k MT (91%)
- Copper: 61k MT (62%)
- Nickel: 25k MT (36%)
- Which is why LME term structure is in such wide contangos (see below point)
What is the impact on LME spreads? Assuming only US and UK persons’ are restricted from delivering fresh Russian production then the c/3M spread (metal for physical delivery at t+2 vs metal for deliver in 3 months’ time) should trade to full finance, because a) the cohort of participants who can take delivery of Russian metal on the LME is reduced, and b) non-US / UK names are incentivised to delivery excess units to achieve a rent deal. Forwards should tighten due to expectation of lower future supply(as Rusal and Norilsk send a higher % of their production to China).
Can China compensate for lower Russian supply? Yes but it takes time. The dynamic in aluminium, where Chinese demand increased by >10%, yet LME struggled to move higher because China were meeting ex-China end-use demand (solar) via primary tolling will, over the medium-term, limit the impact of lower Russian primary supply to ex-China, but it takes time, and won’t impact price today.
What is the is the impact on flat price? Yesterday’s announcement did notreduce the supply of spot metal to the ex-China market; end-users are not restricted from consuming Russian metal, US consumption of Russian metal is already essentially zero, and Rusal (aluminium) and Norilsk (nickel) will not immediately divert supply to China due to arbitrage economics and capacity constraints – Rusal rail aluminium to Northern China and Norilsk struggle to price against SHFE due to persistent negative ARB caused from Indonesia supply growth, which is tolled via China , for example. That being said, history has taught us that the market will price in some “full-sanction” risk premium which when combined with the current macro bid (reflation narrative etc) means we expect a complex wide rally on the Monday’s Shanghai open. At some point the rally (in vol and price) should be faded (especially in nickel), but given where CTA momentum indicators are currently, this is a debate for another day.
Links
- LME Country of Origin Report
- UK Gvt.
- END
- Aluminum, Nickel Soar Then Slide After Western Sanctions On Russian Metals
- MONDAY, APR 15, 2024 – 09:45 AM
- Over the weekend we reported that, in a surprise move, the US and UK imposed new restrictions on trading Russian aluminum, copper and nickel in the latest bid to curb President Vladimir Putin’s ability to fund his war machine (as discussed previously, Russian oil is now trading above the western embargo “cap” price virtually everywhere). According to Bloomberg, the rules would prohibit delivery of new supplies from Russia to the London Metal Exchange, where the global benchmark prices are set, as well as to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The restrictions apply to copper, nickel and aluminum produced on or after April 13, and the US is also banning Russian imports of all three metals.
- In analyzing the potential market impact of this development, we quoted Goldman’s commodity traders who said that the announcement “did not reduce the supply of spot metal to the ex-China market; end-users are not restricted from consuming Russian metal, US consumption of Russian metal is already essentially zero, and Rusal (aluminium) and Norilsk (nickel) will not immediately divert supply to China due to arbitrage economics and capacity constraints” which is why Goldman did not anticipate a big price impact on metals such as aluminum and copper, although it hedged that with history teaching us that “the market will price in some “full-sanction” risk premium which when combined with the current macro bid (reflation narrative etc) means we expect a complex wide rally on the Monday’s Shanghai open.” Still – Goldman cautioned – at some point the rally (in vol and price) should be faded (especially in nickel), “but given where CTA momentum indicators are currently, this is a debate for another day.”
- In retrospect, it’s a very good thing Goldman hedged because overnight, aluminum and nickel first soared on the London Metal Exchange… before slumping and erasing almost all gains as traders responded to the new US and UK sanctions that banned deliveries of any Russian supplies produced after midnight on Friday.
- Initially aluminum jumped as much as 9.4%, the most since the current form of the contract was launched in 1987, while nickel rose as much as 8.8%. However, both metals were only up by around 2% as trading got under way in Europe, and copper was little changed. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, where some brands of Russian metal can still be delivered, aluminum closed marginally lower, while nickel was up 0.7%, all in keeping with Goldman’s warning to fade the initial spike.
- The rally is being fueled by “worries that the sanctions will reduce Russian flows to Western markets,” said Jia Zheng, head of trading and research at Shanghai Dongwu Jiuying Investment Management. “Any stimulation will be amplified amid an existing bullish backdrop.” And while there are also lingering concerns over the prospect of a flood of old Russian metal — which is still permitted — getting dumped onto the LME, clearly those did not prevail this morning.
- As Bloomberg reports, many of the LME’s dealers and brokers have spent the weekend at work gaming out the market implications of the sanctions. The timing of the news, just ahead of the global copper industry’s annual CESCO Week gathering in Chile, has also made for lively conversations in business class cabins and passport queues as the industry descends on Santiago.
- In London, the home of the LME, many traders were glued to their screens late on Sunday night: the scenes were familiar – metals traders have become hardened to wild swings and long weekends after a period marked by a nickel short squeeze that almost destroyed the LME in March 2022, and sanctions on United Co Rusal International PJSC that caused havoc in 2018.
- But traders and executives said that the new restrictions were ultimately unlikely to have as dramatic an impact as those two events. That’s because Russia’s two metal giants, Rusal and MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC, are much less entangled in the western financial system than they were before the war, and the industry has spent the past two years preparing for the prospect of sanctions.
- Still, Russia remains an important producer, accounting for 6% of global nickel supply, 5% of aluminum and 4% of copper. And its role on the LME is even more significant — in nickel for example, Nornickel has long been the largest supplier of refined metal, which is the only form deliverable to the LME. And just in case things get out of hand, the LME has put daily limits in place since the historic squeeze that prevent copper and aluminum prices from rising more than 12% in a day, while nickel has a 15% limit.
- For those who missed our explainer on Saturday, here’s is a quick primer from Bloomberg:
- Russia is an important metals producer, accounting for 6% of global nickel supply, 5% of aluminum and 4% of copper.
- The sanctions are aimed at curbing President Vladimir Putin’s ability to fund his war machine by choking off Russian producers’ access to western exchanges, while still allowing metal to flow to manufacturers in allied nations that depend on them.
- By targeting supplies of Russian metal produced from April 13 onwards, the sanctions divide the market into three categories: new Russian metal, which is now blocked from delivery to the LME; old Russian metal, produced before April 13; and non-Russian metal.
- In many ways, this will lead to a similar bifurcation in the base metals market similar to that observed in oil since 2022, when Russian oil sold to Asia trades (or used to trade) at a lower price than unsanctioned oil sold to the West.
- Indeed, as Bloomberg says, “the measures look set to cement China’s status as Moscow’s buyer of last resort, potentially leaving Russian supplies trading at deepening discounts to benchmark LME prices.”
- Both companies have already been selling increasing volumes to China as many western buyers backed away, and aluminum giant United Co. Rusal International PJSC said on Monday that the measures will have no impact on its ability to supply customers.
- Since Russian metal accounted for 91% of LME aluminum stocks at the end of March, 62% of copper and 36% of nickel, traders are now expecting a wave of deliveries of Russian material that was being held outside the LME system which could now be dumped onto the exchange as its owners worry about the prospect of future restrictions. In the aluminum market, estimates of the amount of Russian metal being held outside of the LME system range from a couple of hundred thousand tons to as much as one million tons.
- The reason why the price may move much higher after the kneejerk response is digested, is that the decision is likely to reignite a debate over whether Russian metal should be banned altogether to protect the exchange’s role as the home of global benchmark prices. By continuing to allow Russian supplies, the LME left open the possibility of a short-term surge in deliveries of that “old” Russian metal into its warehouses, which in turn could create further pricing dislocations. In its notice on Saturday, the LME acknowledged the possibility that the uncertainty caused by the sanctions means “a relatively large supply” of Russian metal could flood onto the exchange.
- Estimates of the amount of Russian aluminum being held outside of the LME system range from a couple of hundred thousand tons to as much as one million tons.
- Finally, here is a more detailed analysis from Goldman analyst Nicholas Snowdown on the impact of the Russian ban:
- The LME bans new Russian metal. The U.S. Treasury and U.K. government announced jointly on Friday fresh restrictions on Russian aluminum, copper and nickel focused on Western exchange activity, rather than on specific companies as was the case with the Rusal sanctions in 2018. Crucially they announced that any Russian metal produced on or after 13th April cannot be delivered (warranted) into Western metals exchanges (LME, CME). This was followed by the LME’s announcement on Saturday where (1) they confirmed metal produced on or after April 13th could no longer be warranted into the LME warehouse system, (2) Russian metal produced and warranted before the end of 12th April in the LME system can be cancelled (and rewarranted) by UK persons and (3) Russian metal produced before 13th April and not currently warranted in the LME system can be warranted though will be distinguished as a separate warrant category, whilst U.K. members cannot cancel these warrants unless on behalf of a non-UK person. Development (1) ends the risk of future Russian metal production being delivered into the LME, as the least preferred market units. Crucially, policy (2) actually makes current LME held Russian units more accessible and more approved to Western traders versus rules in place previously. This lessens the stickiness of those units currently held on exchange and increases the risk of draws, particularly in copper and aluminium. Dependent on market conditions, there remains the risk that for metals with relatively high off-warrant Russian stocks, aluminium most in focus, ruling (3) enables some LME deliveries if demand for those units does not materialise.
- No immediate supply-demand shock. From a fundamental perspective, it is important to recognise that these exchange focused rule adjustments will not generate a necessary supply-demand shock. Russian producers can continue to sell metal to non U.K./US markets – in this respect there is no immediate tightening implication or trade flow dislocation to Western markets from current structure, in the way there was with Rusal’s sanctions in 2018. Nonetheless, there remains the uncertainty of whether other key ex-China markets and consumers will also continue to consume the same volumes of Russian metal ahead, whether due to incremental sanctions – for example if Europe follows suit with a Russian import ban – or consumer self sanctioning, just as we have seen in Europe since mid-2022. Given clearer deficit conditions are emerging in at least the copper and aluminium markets now, increased risk premia on Russian metal should at least provide some marginal demand for non-Russian units (supporting physical premia) whilst as a tightening risk, an upside factor for LME flat pricing albeit without initial spot market impact. We would note that we would also expect markets with no Russian unit sensitivity, most prominently China, India and Turkey, to absorb any incremental Russian metal given probable price incentive and tightening aggregate market conditions.
- LME Russian dislocation is set to moderate. Crucially these announcements are significant in terms of the impact of actual LME physical function. For much of the last two years, in mostly benign market conditions, dislocated Russian units due to Western consumer self-sanctioning have been remapped either to Eastern consumers (China, Turkey, India) and into the LME system where they were still accepted. This has contributed to a build of unwanted Russian units on the LME which has generated a negative distortion of front-end spreads, as the LME curve has priced carry on Russian units. After this latest announcement, there are three conclusions on path ahead. First, the improved access and acceptability of currently held LME Russian stocks means that liquidity on cancellations increases. This should particularly be the case in copper, where the prospective extreme tightness ahead and already low market stocks, mean Russian units are vital to solving market shortfalls. In turn, this suggests a catalyst for tightening in front end spreads from the current sizeable contango. Second, longer term tightening in LME supply from the end of newly produced Russian metals – the LME is no longer the bid of last resort for this metal stream – means that longer dated spreads should also see a tightening bias though there has been less distortion on forward spreads from Russian dislocations. Third, there remains the risk that for metals with relatively high off-warrant Russian stock holding, namely aluminium, that the new LME warrant classification will enable future deliveries. Whilst we see a large global aluminium deficit this year (and next) limiting that channel, it remains a risk and could abate front end spread tightening.
- Stay long copper and aluminium. It is important to recognise that these exchange focused rule adjustments are taking place in an environment where fundamentals for copper and aluminium are inflecting into a sustained tightening direction, after two benign years for fundamentals in 2022 and 2023. Indeed, the strong performance of the industrial metals complex over the year so far is a trend we expect to gather momentum ahead. This view particularly resonates with copper and aluminium, given the unprecedented fundamental shortfalls facing both metals over the next three years. We see three key factors underpinning this reflationary phase in industrial metals: (1) a continuation of China’s green metals demand strength, (2) greater restraint on China onshore metals supply supporting stronger metals import pull into China, set against (3) a cyclical recovery in Western manufacturing, increasing competition for metal units. While the apparent troughing in the global industrial cycle presents a broadly supportive demand factor, it is only for copper ($12,000/t 12M target) and aluminium ($2,700/t 12M target) that fundamentals present a structural extension in bull market, tied to a combination of high green transition demand leverage, underinvested predominantly long-cycle supply dynamics, and already extremely low inventory cover. Whilst nickel is also likely to rally on the LME announcement, reinforced by greater short covering risk, the continued surplus in that market will limit the sustainability of such upside in our opinion.
15 April - More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs in the usual plac
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
END
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 7.2386
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2591
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 37.91 PTS OR 1.26%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 121.23 PTS OR 0.73%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 290.79 OR 0.76%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 105.66 EURO RISES TO 1.0663 UP 25 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISRS TO. +.858Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 153.31/JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN:UP/ OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.409***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.763* /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.224…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.3327
3j Gold at $2358.00 silver at: 28.51 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 1 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 93.52//
3m oil into the 84 dollar handle for WTI and 89 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 153.88// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.858% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9124 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9728 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.573 UP 7 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.669 UP 7 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.938 UP 6 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.40…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 6 BASIS PTS AT 4.2390
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge
Futures, Bitcoin Jump, Oil Drops As Markets Move Beyond This Weekend’s Scripted Military Exchange Between Iran And Israel
MONDAY, APR 15, 2024 – 08:09 AM
Following the emotional rollercoaster of this weekend geopolitical “straight to DVD” soap opera, in which Iran pretended to retaliate to Israel’s embassy bombing with an attack that was meant to be a dud (and succeeded), which in turn was followed by an even more dramatic de-escalation by Israel in which after much saber rattling Netanyahu did…nothing, futures and yield are predictably higher, while oil is lower. That’s right: after digesting the weekend’s news and realizing that what just happened was one giant farce, global markets are broadly higher (except for Asia which is always a few steps behind), with European stocks ticking higher and US rebounding from Friday’s 1.5% selloff in the S&P 500. As of 7:30am, S&P futures were 0.5% higher with Nasdaq futs rising 0.6%; Treasuries slipped along with the dollar. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped below $85 a barrel, while base metals rallied with Aluminum at one point surging more than 9% after Russian supply was hit by US and UK sanctions. Gold reversed Friday’s losses to rise above $2,350 an ounce and bitcoin – which was the weekend’s only operating market and saw the initial risk-off reaction – reversed all losses and is back to unchanged. Today, the macro focus will be Retail Sales release. Feroli expects headline Retail Sales to print +0.3% vs. +0.4% survey vs. +0.6% prior. China will release key macro data at 10pm ET tonight.
In premarket trading, most of megacap tech stocks were higher: META +1.2%, NVDA +1.12%, MU +96bp, MSFT +62bp; however Apple slipped after iPhone shipments slid a worse-than-projected 10% in the first quarter, as sales flagged in China. The company shipped 50.1 million handsets, IDC said, its worst year-on-year drop since Covid lockdowns in 2022. Banks are also mostly higher, rebounding from Friday’s JPMorgan-driven selloff, with Goldman rising after reporting solid results. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Astera Labs shares advance 1.7% after a majority of brokers initiated coverage on the chipmaker with buy-equivalent recommendations.
- Coupang shares rose 1.6%, extending Friday’s gains. Citi upgrades its rating to buy from neutral, saying a recent increase in membership fee by the South Korean e-commerce firm indicates management’s will to manage profit margins.
- Reddit shares gain 1.3% as the social-media company is initiated with neutral-equivalent ratings at JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Analysts said the stock is fairly valued.
- Salesforce fell 2.5% after Bloomberg reported that the Marc Benioff-led company is targeting Informatica to boost data capability, according to people familiar with the matter. Some analysts note that such a deal may draw regulatory scrutiny.
While some nerves are still running high given the possibility that Israel might retaliate after Iran fired a barrage of missiles and drones over the weekend – but it won’t since the whole operation appears to have been orchestrated and scripted with Biden’s interests to keep oil prices low in mind – investors also took comfort after the Iranian mission to the United Nations said the issue “can be deemed concluded.” The US and other nations also called for restraint in an effort to head off a full-blown regional war.
“It’s right to price more geopolitical risk premia into assets, but at the end of the day equity markets are still only about 2% off all time highs,” said Timothy Graf, head of EMEA macro strategy at State Street. “This was a well telegraphed geopolitical development. A lot of the bad news is in the price already.”
In recent days, markets had been rattled by the threat of a strike and counter-strike cycle in the Middle East, which could push drive energy prices higher at a time when policymakers are still struggling to bring down inflation. But for now, traders said the situation seems contained, and furthermore with the worst of the exchange already priced in, no wonder that oil is actually lower today. Furthermore, the “assault” caused minimal damage and no fatalities as almost all the projectiles were intercepted. Almost as if it was Iran’s intention to do zero harm. Still, the deep state was a winner, and the tensions fueled gains in an index of defense shares compiled by Goldman Sachs. Dassault Aviation SA and Saab AB rose more than 2%. Shares in Leonardo SpA, Thales SA, BAE Systems Plc and Rheinmetall AG advanced at least 1%.
Meanwhile, warnings season continues today with Goldman Sachs and Charles Schwab reporting Q1 results. With investor positioning looking “very stretched” and indexes not far from all-time highs, it’s unlikely that an upbeat earnings season can keep powering stocks higher, according to JPMorgan Chase strategists, although they have been bearish since the mid 3000s so one can ignore them. “We need to see clear earnings acceleration in order to justify current equity valuations, which we fear might not come through,” Mislav Matejka wrote in a note, hoping that one week he – and his Croatian compatriot Marko Kolanovic – may even be right.
Elsewhere, aluminum surged by a record on the London Metal Exchange as traders responded to new US and UK sanctions that banned deliveries of Russian supplies produced after midnight on Friday. The restrictions on key industrial metals — aimed at curbing President Vladimir Putin’s ability to fund his war machine — are unlikely to stop Russian sales but inject significant uncertainty into commodities markets that have already been reshaped in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
European stocks also gained: the Stoxx 600 rose 0.3%, as investors wager that the conflict between Iran and Israel won’t escalate further. Industrials and autos lead sector gains while energy has the largest declines as Brent falls back below $90. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:
- Defense stocks are climbing after Iran fired drones and missiles against Israel on Saturday evening, marking a potentially much more dangerous phase in the region
- Temenos leaps as much as 19% after the software company said an independent examination found allegations by short-seller Hindenburg Research were “inaccurate and misleading”
- Prysmian jumps as much as 6.2% to a record high after the cable maker said it would acquire US-based firm Encore Wire, in a deal that analysts say will help boost its US exposure
- Siemens rises as much as 3.4% and Atlas Copco is up as much as 3.6% after both were upgraded to buy at Bank of America in a review of the European capital-goods sector
- Adidas rises as much as 4.3% after Morgan Stanley double-upgrades to overweight, with growth in topline momentum now seen outweighing risks to the equity story
- Inchcape rises as much as 4.2% after the auto distributor agreed to sell its UK retail operations and use some of the proceeds to fund a buyback
- Fortnox gains as much as 6.1% after the small-business accounting platform was upgraded to buy from hold at SEB
- ISS gains as much as 5.6% after Goldman Sachs upgraded its recommendation to buy from neutral, noting valuation is at historic lows
- Galp declines as much as 2% after the energy company’s trading update revealed lower-than-expected production in Brazil and below-consensus upstream, according to Morgan Stanley analysts
- Stoxx 600 Energy Index drops as much as 1.7% as oil shrugged off Iran’s unprecedented attack. Brent eased on speculation that the conflict would remain contained
- Pagegroup falls as much as 6.7% after the recruitment consultant’s first-quarter results, with Morgan Stanley highlighting an uncertain environment
Earlier in the session, Asian equities fell in delayed action tracking Friday’s US slump, with a key benchmark touching a six-week low, as Middle East tensions hurt global risk sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 1.2%, to its lowest level since March 1. Technology stocks including TSMC, Samsung and Alibaba were among the biggest drags on the gauge, which was poised for a fourth-straight day of losses, its longest losing streak since October. The drop tracked declines in US stocks and a surge in the dollar Friday on the flare-up in geopolitical risks. Tensions ratcheted higher over the weekend with Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel. Concerns over possible escalation come on top of pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts after hotter-than-expected CPI data.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed as the mainland bucked the trend after recent disappointing trade data from China added to the case for policy support measures. Participants now await tomorrow’s GDP and activity data, while the PBoC provided no surprises and maintained the 1-year MLF Rate at 2.50%, as expected.
- Nikkei 225 was the worst hit and briefly dipped below 39,000 but recovered some of the losses with the help of a weaker currency.
- ASX 200 was pressured with underperformance in gold miners and tech, while sentiment was also not helped by the recent surprise contraction of imports by Australia’s largest trading partner.
“We think the specter of sticky US inflation that raises risk of a hawkish repricing higher in rates/yields, higher oil prices amid rising geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and a stronger USD create a potent mix where Asian stocks could struggle – at least in the near term,” Nomura strategists including Chetan Seth wrote in a note.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Index steadied Monday after posting a three-day advance; the yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.4% versus the greenback. “The dollar will be the beneficiary should tensions further escalate, even more so than the yen,” said Carol Kong, strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.
In rates, treasury futures remain under pressure, with cash yields cheaper by as much as 5bp for intermediates, after Friday’s haven bid abated during Asia session and European morning on prospect that diplomatic efforts will prevent escalation of conflict between Iran and Israel. Treasury 10-year yields around 4.57% are near top of Friday’s range. Gilts lag by additional 2bp in the sector and underperform across core European rates. US curve spreads are little changed. Bunds and gilts also fall.
In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down about 0.9% at around $85/barrel after topping $87.60 Friday. Spot gold rises 0.2% while aluminum and nickel climb as traders responded to new US and UK sanctions that ban deliveries of Russian supplies.
On today’s US economic calendar, we have the April Empire manufacturing and March retail sales (8:30am), February business inventories and April NAHB housing market index (10am). Fed speakers include Williams (8:30am) and Daly (8pm); Jefferson, Barkin, Powell, Mester, Bowman, Bostic and Goolsbee are slated to appear later this week
Markets Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 5,194.00
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 506.86
- MXAP down 0.8% to 173.84
- MXAPJ down 0.8% to 530.25
- Nikkei down 0.7% to 39,232.80
- Topix down 0.2% to 2,753.20
- Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 16,600.46
- Shanghai Composite up 1.3% to 3,057.38
- Sensex down 0.9% to 73,604.83
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 7,752.53
- Kospi down 0.4% to 2,670.43
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.41%
- Euro up 0.1% to $1.0656
- Brent Futures down 1.0% to $89.56/bbl
- Brent Futures down 1.0% to $89.57/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.1% to $2,346.46
- US Dollar Index down 0.11% to 105.92
Top Overnight News
- Global markets calmed after Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel. Oil slipped amid speculation the conflict will remain contained while gold pared its advance. Iran said there would be no further attacks as long as Israel didn’t respond aggressively, but Benjamin Netanyahu warned, “whoever strikes Israel, we will strike him.”
- The Senate is looking to potentially make the House TikTok ban bill the basis of its own legislation, and might attach it to FAA reauthorization, which needs to pass by May 10. WSJ
- Apple slipped premarket after iPhone shipments slid a worse-than-projected 10% in the first quarter, as sales flagged in China. The company shipped 50.1 million handsets, IDC said, its worst year-on-year drop since Covid lockdowns in 2022. BBG
- Ukraine’s top commander warned that his outmanned and outgunned army is struggling to halt a multipronged and intensifying Russian offensive, as Kyiv pleads with western partners for more air defenses and a critical military aid package remains stalled in the US Congress. FT
- ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus said borrowing costs will decline this year, predicting at least three such moves. “I see a higher than 50% chance there will be more than three cuts this year,” Simkus told reporters in Vilnius. “I see a higher than zero chance that an interest rate cut may follow also in July. The July decision will be important in setting the trajectory.” BBG
- Aluminum surged by a record before erasing most of its gains on the London Metal Exchange, as traders responded to new US and UK sanctions that ban deliveries of Russian supplies produced since Friday. The restrictions — on aluminum, nickel and copper — are aimed at curbing President Vladimir Putin’s ability to fund his war machine. Announced late on Friday, they are designed to choke off Russian producers’ access to western exchanges, while still allowing metal to flow to manufacturers in allied nations that depend on them. BBG
- Tesla plans to cut more than 10% of its global workforce, Electrek reported, more than 14,000 employees if applied company wide. It said an email from Elon Musk cited “duplication of roles and job functions.” BBG
- Salesforce is in advanced talks to acquire data-management software provider Informatica according to people familiar with the matter. Informatica has a market capitalization of more than $11 billion after a 43% run-up in its shares this year as traders bet on a deal. One potential complicating factor: The price that was being discussed is below Informatica’s Friday closing stock price of $38.48 as a result of the recent jump. WSJ
- Biden cuts Trump’s lead to just 1 point in the latest NYT poll (vs. Trump’s 5 point advantage in late Feb). This is just the latest in a string of polling numbers over the last several weeks pointing to a healthy Biden bounce coming out of the State of the Union. NYT
- Treasuries are getting harder to sell as US economic data surprises to the upside, the Fed stays on hold for an extended period, and American fiscal deficits remain enormous. Wall Street doesn’t expect the Treasury to raise auction sizes of longer-term notes and bonds until next year. But the government must also contend with refinancing a chunk of its bonds. A record $8.9 trillion of Treasuries, roughly a third of outstanding U.S. debt, is set to mature just in 2024. WSJ
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks mostly declined as participants reflected on the geopolitical events over the weekend whereby Iran launched its first direct attack on Israel which was largely intercepted with very little damage caused, while the region also got its first opportunity to react to disappointing Chinese trade data. ASX 200 was pressured with underperformance in gold miners and tech, while sentiment was also not helped by the recent surprise contraction of imports by Australia’s largest trading partner. Nikkei 225 was the worst hit and briefly dipped below 39,000 but recovered some of the losses with the help of a weaker currency. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed as the mainland bucked the trend after recent disappointing trade data from China added to the case for policy support measures. Participants now await tomorrow’s GDP and activity data, while the PBoC provided no surprises and maintained the 1-year MLF Rate at 2.50%, as expected.
Top Asian News
- PBoC announced CNY 100bln in 1-year MLF loans with the rate kept unchanged at 2.50%, as expected
- US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kritenbrink will travel to China between April 14th-16th, according to Reuters.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki reiterated that he is watching FX moves closely and wants to be fully prepared when questioned about forex moves, according to Reuters.
- Indian PM Modi said the BJP 2024 election manifesto focuses on creating jobs and boosting start-ups. Modi added the manifesto promises to bring all Indians above 70 years of age under the free health insurance programme and lift the cap on loans to INR 2mln for non-farming small and micro schemes, while it also promises to launch bullet train projects in the north, south and eastern parts of the country, according to Reuters.
- BoJ is reportedly shifting to a more discretionary approach in setting policy, with less emphasis on inflation, Reuters sources said; “Various data must be scrutinised, not just the inflation outlook,” one source said.
- EU is set to launch China probe on medical device procurement, via Bloomberg; could occur as soon as mid-April and result in the EU curtailing access for China to its tenders
European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.3%), began the session on a firmer footing and continued to edge higher throughout the morning, with participants garnering optimism from the lack of clear pointers to a potential response from Israel, following the recent attack from Iran. European sectors hold a positive tilt; Industrials top the pile, as Defensive names benefit from the heightened geopolitical environment over the weekend. Energy is found at the foot of the pile, as the crude complex sinks. US Equity Futures (ES +0.5%, NQ +0.6%, RTY +0.6%) are entirely in the green, and directionally in-fitting with the broader sentiment seen in Europe.
Top European News
- UK PM Sunak is resisting advice from allies to set the date for the UK general election, which they said would help him fend off a leadership challenge threat by Conservative Party rebels next month, according to Bloomberg.
- UK Treasury was urged by the British Property Federation industry group to reverse the decision to end stamp-duty relief for multiple dwellings and warned the move will discourage the construction of homes being built in England, according to FT.
- France launched a dispute with the UK over fishing rights after its trawlers were banned from some British waters to protect vulnerable habitats, while its diplomats will meet with UK counterparts this Monday, according to FT.
- ECB’s Villeroy said the ECB is increasingly confident that it is winning the fight against inflation which makes an interest rate cut in June very likely, according to Reuters.
- ECB’s Holzmann said on Friday that a rate cut in June is likely but depends on the data and a June rate cut is probable if CPI stays on the current path, while he added the rate cut pace will depend on inflation and wages, according to ORF TV interview.
- ECB’s Simkus says rate cut is possible in June and also in July; further trajectory of cuts will depend on July decisions; there is now more than a 50% chance of more than three rate cuts this year. Geopolitical shocks such as an escalation if the Israel-Iran conflict could cancel a June rate cut.
FX
- USD remains near Friday’s highs as the narrative of US exceptionalism has rolled into this week. DXY is yet to make a fresh peak after climbing to a 106.10 summit on Friday.
- EUR is inching gains vs. the USD but minor compared to the damage done last week by the focus on Fed vs. ECB divergence which dragged the pair from a weekly high at 1.0885 to a low of 1.0622.
- Cable attempted to recoup some lost ground which has been prompted by a reassessment of the chronology of Fed vs. BoE rate cuts that was assumed at the start of the year. Currently trading around the upper end of today’s range at 1.2490.
- JPY the clear laggard across the majors as relative Fed vs. BoJ policy paths remain the key-driving force as verbal intervention from officials remains ineffective. USD/JPY as high as 153.96 with focus on a breach of 154 and eventual 155 which many have touted as a line in the sand in Tokyo.
- AUD the best performer across the majors with price action in the metals space underpinning the currency.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0979 vs exp. 7.2478 (prev. 7.0967).
- Senior Japanese MOF official says they are in frequent and regular talks with the US and other countries’ authorities on financial and FX market moves
Fixed Income
- USTs are pressured in a continuation of the late-Friday pullback as the Iran-Israel situation had yet to escalate as much as some feared at that point. USTs hold at their 108-06 trough, below which Friday’s 108-00+ base resides before last week’s 107-27+ low.
- Bunds have been edging lower throughout the morning, continuing price action seen on Friday; 132.00 to the downside looms, which brings the 10yr yield back towards 2.40%.
- Gilts at lows as the UK benchmark is subject to the above alongside its own divergence with the Fed. Today’s base matches Friday’s 97.22 trough with the figure below and then support via last week’s 96.82 low thereafter.
Commodities
- Crude is softer after the widely-telegraphed Iranian attack on Israel was mostly intercepted, and Israel is yet to retaliate; Brent June slipped from a USD 91.05/bbl peak to levels under USD 90/bbl.
- Precious metals are mostly firmer; XAU and silver see modest gains and the Dollar wanes off its best level while spot palladium trades lacklustre; Spot gold hovers around USD 2,350/oz.
- Mixed trade across base metals with clear outperformance in aluminium and nickel as prices surged in APAC trade after the US banned imports of Russian-origin aluminium, copper and nickel into the US on Friday.
- US banned imports of Russian-origin aluminium, copper and nickel into the US on Friday, while it also limited their use on global metal exchanges in OTC derivatives trading. UK also announced joint action with the US to clamp down on prohibited Russian metal exports with the London Metal Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to no longer trade new aluminium, copper and nickel produced by Russia.
- Russia’s Rusal (on UK and US sanctions) says actions will have no impact on the Co.’s ability to supply, adding that overall production and quality systems are not effected
- Goldman Sachs expects no immediate supply-demand shock from the LME’s ban on Russian metals.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- “Israel is considering bringing forward the operation in Rafah from the originally planned date”; “The answer Hamas gave back to the mediators is so unequivocal against a deal”, according to sources cited by Israeli Radio correspondent.
- UK Foreign Minister Cameron says more sanctions against Iran will be considered.
- “Iranian Foreign Ministry: We advise the countries supporting (Israel) to warn it against taking any other action against us”, via Al Jazeera.
- Israeli war cabinet is to reconvene at 12:00 BST/07:00ET, via Reuters citing a government source.
- Israel’s military said there were more than 300 projectiles fired by Iran at Israel with some of the launches from Iraq, Yemen and Iran but noted that 99% of them were intercepted and there was very little damage caused, while it said Iran undertook a very grave action that pushes the region towards escalation and Israel’s armed forces retain full functionality and are discussing options for follow-up operations, according to Reuters and CBS News.
- Israel requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to condemn Iran and a senior Israeli official said there will be a significant response to the unprecedented Iranian attack, while it was also reported that Israeli Defence Minister Gallant said Israel has an opportunity to form a strategic alliance against Iran after the attack, according to Reuters.
- Israeli officials said a majority in the Israeli war cabinet favours a response to the Iranian attack but is divided over the timing and the scale, according to Reuters.
- Iranian President Raisi said the operation against Israel was carried out with high accuracy and they displayed the power of their missiles and drones well, while he added the operation targeted military centres and was carried out in full coordination between the field and diplomacy.
- Iran’s mission to the UN said Iran’s military action was in response to Israel’s aggression against Iran’s diplomatic premises in Damascus and that the matter can now be deemed concluded but warned Iran’s response will be considerably more severe should the Israeli regime make another mistake. Furthermore, it stated the conflict is between Iran and Israel, while the US must stay away.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Tehran will not hesitate to take further defensive measures to safeguard its legitimate interests against any military aggressions. In relevant news, Iran’s Foreign Ministry summoned the British, French and German ambassadors, while Iran also sent a message to the US via Switzerland warning that its bases would be targeted if Washington backs Israel’s retaliation, according to Reuters.
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guards commander warned if Israel retaliates, Iran’s response will be larger than seen on Saturday night and that Tehran will retaliate against any Israeli attack on its interests. The IRGC also warned any threat from the US and Israel would be met with a reciprocal response from Iran, while it was also reported that Iranian airports cancelled flights until Monday morning.
- G7 leaders condemned Iran’s attack on Israel and reaffirmed the G7’s commitment to Israel’s security, while they will continue to work to stabilise the situation and avoid further escalation, as well as demanded that Iran and its proxies cease their attacks, according to Reuters.
- UN Secretary-General Guterres said the Middle East is on the brink and people in the region are facing a real danger of devastating full-scale conflict, while he said now is the time to defuse, de-escalate and for maximum restraint, according to Reuters.
- US President Biden said he condemns these attacks in the strongest possible terms and spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu to reaffirm America’s ironclad commitment to the security of Israel, according to Reuters. It was also reported that President Biden told Israeli PM Netanyahu the US would oppose any Israeli counterattack against Iran, according to a White House senior official cited by Axios.
- US senior administration official said the US had contact with Iran through Swiss intermediaries ahead of the attack on Israel and sent the US a message after the attack, but noted that Iran did not give a 72-hour warning and its intent was to be highly destructive. Furthermore, the US official said Israel has made it clear it is not looking for a significant escalation with Iran and that G7 leaders discussed sanctions against Iran and designating the IRGC as a terrorist organisation, according to Reuters.
- US Pentagon said forces in the Middle East intercepted dozens of missiles and drones launched from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. US Defense Secretary Austin called on Iran to de-escalate the situation and the US also called on Iran to immediately halt any further attacks. Furthermore, he said the US does not seek war or conflict with Iran but will not hesitate to protect its forces and support the defence of Israel, while Western intelligence sources stated that most of the Iranian drones and missiles that flew were downed by Israeli and US aerial interceptions, according to Reuters.
- US Deputy Representative to the UN Robert Wood said the UN Security Council has an obligation to not let Iran’s actions go unanswered and the US will explore additional measures to hold Iran accountable at the UN in the coming days, while he added Iran will be held responsible if it or its proxies takes action against the US or further action against Israel, according to Reuters.
- US House is to consider legislation to support Israel next week, according to Republican majority leader Scalise cited by Reuters.
- Jordan said it intercepted flying objects that entered its airspace on Saturday night to ensure the safety of its citizens. It was also reported that Jordanian PM Khasawneh said an escalation in the region would lead to dangerous paths and stressed the need to reduce escalation, while he said the Jordanian army is ready to confront with all of its means any attempt from any party that endangers its security, according to Reuters. It was also reported that Tehran is closely watching Jordan which could become the next target in case of any pro-Israel move, according to a source cited by Fars News Agency.
- Turkish diplomatic source said Iran informed Turkey in advance of its planned military operation against Israel and Iran told the US via Turkey that its operation would only respond to the embassy attack and not go further, while the US conveyed to Iran that its operation must be within certain limits, according to Reuters.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office said Hamas rejected the hostage deal tabled by mediators and that Israel will continue to try to achieve the objectives of the war with Hamas with full force. It was also reported that the Israeli military said it will be calling up two reserve divisions for operations in Gaza over the next few days, according to Reuters.
- UK said it has been working with partners across the region to de-escalation in response to increased Iranian threats and escalation in the Middle East, while it has moved several additional air force jets and refuelling tankers to the region with UK jets to intercept any airborne attacks within range of their existing missions as required, according to Reuters.
- Iran’s state news agency reported that IRGC navy special forces seized a vessel linked to Israel and that the MSC Aries vessel was transferred to Iran’s territorial waters, according to Reuters.
Geopolitics: Other
- China’s Coast Guard blocked Philippines vessels in an operation on Saturday which occurred just 35 nautical miles from the Philippines’ coastline amid increasing maritime tensions, according to FT.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: March Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.6%
- March Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.4%, prior 0%
- March Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.3%
- 08:30: April Empire Manufacturing, est. -5.0, prior -20.9
- 10:00: Feb. Business Inventories, est. 0.4%, prior 0%
- 10:00: April NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 51, prior 51
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Since last Friday, geopolitics has returned as the biggest concern for markets, as investors react to Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend. But since markets have reopened after the weekend, the reaction among key assets has been subdued, with investors hopeful that any escalation will prove contained. For instance, Brent crude oil prices have come down by -0.24% this morning to $90.23/bbl, and futures on the S&P 500 are actually up by +0.30%. So that’s a decent turnaround from Friday, when fears about an escalation meant the S&P 500 posted its worst daily performance since January. US Treasuries have also unwound some of their Friday moves, and the 10yr yield is up +3.7bps to 4.56%.
To recap the weekend’s developments, Iran launched a major drone and missile attack on Israel on Saturday evening, which marked the first time that there’d been a direct attack on Israel from Iran . Israel said that over 300 drones and missiles had been fired, although the vast majority of these were intercepted. In a statement, US President Biden described it as “an unprecedented air attack”, but the White House has sought to avoid an escalation. For instance, John Kirby, the White House National Security Communications Adviser, said that “The President has been clear. We don’t want to see this escalate”.
Looking forward, the important question now is how Israel might respond to this, and whether it could lead to a further escalation in the conflict. It was reported by CNN that a meeting of Israel’s war cabinet ended on Sunday evening without a decision on how Israel would respond, according to an Israeli official. And Reuters reported that the war cabinet favoured retaliation, but was divided over the response according to Israeli officials. That followed comments earlier in the day from Benny Gantz, a minister in the war cabinet, who said that Israel will “exact a price from Iran in a way and time that suits us”. And Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister, called for a “crushing attack”. But in the US, reports have indicated that there is more caution about an escalation, and Axios reported that Biden had told Israeli PM Netanyahu that the US wouldn’t support an Israeli counterattack, according to a senior White House official. For more on the risks and next steps to watch, see our EM research colleagues’ reaction note published overnight here.
This uncertain backdrop means that markets haven’t sold off further this morning relative to Friday. It’s true that most Asian equity indices are lower, but that partly reflects a catchup to the selloff that already took place on Friday after they’d closed, when headlines came through suggesting that an attack could happen. That backdrop has seen the Nikkei (-1.05%), the Hang Seng (-0.73%) and the KOSPI (-0.59%) all lose ground, whilst the Japanese Yen is also trading at its weakest level against the US Dollar since 1990, at 153.83. However, there have been gains for the CSI 300 (+1.90%) and the Shanghai Comp (+1.21%).
That selloff on Friday occurred after reports came through that Israel was preparing for a direct attack as early as Saturday. In response, there was immediately a surge in oil prices, which moved above $92/bbl at one point intraday, before paring back those gains. Alongside that, the S&P 500 (-1.46%) experienced its worst daily performance since January, and the VIX index of volatility closed at 17.31pts, marking its highest level since October. In turn, investors moved into haven assets, and the dollar index closed at its highest level since early November, having experienced its biggest weekly gain since September 2022.
Given all this, developments in the Middle East will be the main focus this week, and we know from recent experience that geopolitical tensions can impact the global economy through several channels. Most directly, the effects of higher oil prices will be felt globally, and this is coming at a time when there’s already concern about sticky inflation in several countries. That’s something that could create a dilemma for central banks, as we also found out after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. On the one hand, there is the risk that a geopolitical shock hurts growth, bringing forward the timing of rate cuts. Indeed, markets were clearly pricing that risk on Friday, with the chance of a Fed rate cut by June moving up from 24% to 30%, although that’s since moved back to 24% this morning. But then again, if higher oil prices lead to more inflation and there are second round effects on other prices, then that could mean monetary policy has to stay in restrictive territory for longer. So the potential effects can work both ways.
We’ll get the chance to hear from several policymakers this week, as numerous officials are gathering in Washington DC for the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings. Tomorrow, we’ll get the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, including their forecasts for the global economy. And over the week, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, and Bank of England Governor Bailey, among others. This week is also the last opportunity to hear from Fed speakers ahead of the next meeting, as their blackout period begins on Saturday.
Otherwise this week, earnings season will begin to ramp up before it really gets into full flow over the subsequent week. That includes releases from 41 companies in the S&P 500, along with 21 from the STOXX 600, with results from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Netflix and Johnson & Johnson.
Finally on this week’s data, we’ve got the Q1 GDP release for China out tomorrow, along with their March data for retail sales and industrial production. Meanwhile, there are CPI releases for March in the UK, Japan and Canada, which will also be in focus as markets assess the timing of any monetary policy moves. Then in the US, we’ve also got some more data for March, including retail sales, housing starts, building permits, and industrial production.
To recap last week more fully now, it was a very weak one for markets overall, as the combination of geopolitical fears and an upside surprise in the US CPI meant that bonds and equities both lost ground again. By the end of the week, the S&P 500 was down -1.56%, marking its biggest weekly loss since October, and the small-cap Russell 2000 (-2.92%) was back in negative territory for the year. There was a better performance for the Magnificent 7 (+0.99%), which helped to dampen the S&P 500’s overall losses. But it meant that the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-2.67%) was down by even more, with the index experiencing its worst week since September. Otherwise, the S&P 500 banks index (-4.73%) struggled amidst the start of earnings season, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 was only down -0.26%.
Over in fixed income, US 2yr and 10yr yields both saw their highest weekly close since November, up +14.7bps to 4.90% and +11.9 bps to 4.52% respectively. That was mainly because of Wednesday’s US CPI print, which added to fears that inflation was proving persistent, and led to a significant reassessment about the timing of rate cuts. By the end of the week, Fed funds futures were only pricing 46.5bps of cuts by December (-18.3bps last week but +4.6bps on Friday). And investors lowered the chance of a rate cut by the June meeting from 54% to 30%. That said, it was a different story in Europe, where the 10yr German bund saw yields fall -4.0bps on the week (-10.4bps Friday). That came as the ECB added to the signals that they were thinking about a rate cut as soon as the next meeting in June.
Whilst bonds and equities lost ground for the most part, several haven assets had a stronger performance. For instance, the dollar index (+1.67%) had its best week since September 2022, which was the same week as the UK’s mini-budget under former PM Liz Truss. In the meantime, gold prices (+0.63%) were up for a 4th consecutive week, which is the first time that’s happened since January 2023.
Finally, sentiment wasn’t helped on Friday by the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for April. That fell to 77.9 (vs 79.0 expected), whilst inflation expectations also moved higher. 1yr inflation expectations were up two tenths to 3.1% (vs 2.9% expected), whilst 5-10yr expectations also rose to 3.0% (vs 2.8% expected).
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Equities firmer, JPY soft and AUD benefits from metals strength whilst crude sinks; US Retail Sales due – Newsquawk US Market Open
MONDAY, APR 15, 2024 – 05:55 AM
- Equities are firmer though with the FTSE 100 lagging, hampered by broader weakness in the crude complex
- Dollar flat, AUD benefits from metals strength and JPY lags
- Bonds pressured in a continuation of recent price action, Bunds looking to test 132.00
- Crude lower after the Iran attacks were mostly nullified, XAU modestly firmer
- Looking ahead, US Retail Sales, Fed’s Williams, BoE’s Breeden & ECB’s Lane & de Cos. Earnings from Goldman Sachs & Charles Schwab.
More Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.3%), began the session on a firmer footing and continued to edge higher throughout the morning, with participants garnering optimism from the lack of clear pointers to a potential response from Israel, following the recent attack from Iran.
- European sectors hold a positive tilt; Industrials top the pile, as Defensive names benefit from the heightened geopolitical environment over the weekend. Energy is found at the foot of the pile, as the crude complex sinks.
- US Equity Futures (ES +0.5%, NQ +0.6%, RTY +0.6%) are entirely in the green, and directionally in-fitting with the broader sentiment seen in Europe.
- Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings.
- Click here for more details.
FX
- USD remains near Friday’s highs as the narrative of US exceptionalism has rolled into this week. DXY is yet to make a fresh peak after climbing to a 106.10 summit on Friday.
- EUR is inching gains vs. the USD but minor compared to the damage done last week by the focus on Fed vs. ECB divergence which dragged the pair from a weekly high at 1.0885 to a low of 1.0622.
- Cable attempted to recoup some lost ground which has been prompted by a reassessment of the chronology of Fed vs. BoE rate cuts that was assumed at the start of the year. Currently trading around the upper end of today’s range at 1.2490.
- JPY the clear laggard across the majors as relative Fed vs. BoJ policy paths remain the key-driving force as verbal intervention from officials remains ineffective. USD/JPY as high as 153.96 with focus on a breach of 154 and eventual 155 which many have touted as a line in the sand in Tokyo.
- AUD the best performer across the majors with price action in the metals space underpinning the currency.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0979 vs exp. 7.2478 (prev. 7.0967).
- Senior Japanese MOF official says they are in frequent and regular talks with the US and other countries’ authorities on financial and FX market moves
- Click here for more details.
- Click here for the Option Expiries for today’s NY Cut.
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are pressured in a continuation of the late-Friday pullback as the Iran-Israel situation had yet to escalate as much as some feared at that point. USTs hold at their 108-06 trough, below which Friday’s 108-00+ base resides before last week’s 107-27+ low.
- Bunds have been edging lower throughout the morning, continuing price action seen on Friday; 132.00 to the downside looms, which brings the 10yr yield back towards 2.40%.
- Gilts at lows as the UK benchmark is subject to the above alongside its own divergence with the Fed. Today’s base matches Friday’s 97.22 trough with the figure below and then support via last week’s 96.82 low thereafter.
- Click here for more details.
COMMODITIES
- Crude is softer after the widely-telegraphed Iranian attack on Israel was mostly intercepted, and Israel is yet to retaliate; Brent June slipped from a USD 91.05/bbl peak to levels under USD 90/bbl.
- Precious metals are mostly firmer; XAU and silver see modest gains and the Dollar wanes off its best level while spot palladium trades lacklustre; Spot gold hovers around USD 2,350/oz.
- Mixed trade across base metals with clear outperformance in aluminium and nickel as prices surged in APAC trade after the US banned imports of Russian-origin aluminium, copper and nickel into the US on Friday.
- US banned imports of Russian-origin aluminium, copper and nickel into the US on Friday, while it also limited their use on global metal exchanges in OTC derivatives trading. UK also announced joint action with the US to clamp down on prohibited Russian metal exports with the London Metal Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to no longer trade new aluminium, copper and nickel produced by Russia.
- Russia’s Rusal (on UK and US sanctions) says actions will have no impact on the Co.’s ability to supply, adding that overall production and quality systems are not effected
- Goldman Sachs expects no immediate supply-demand shock from the LME’s ban on Russian metals.
- Click here for more details.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK PM Sunak is resisting advice from allies to set the date for the UK general election, which they said would help him fend off a leadership challenge threat by Conservative Party rebels next month, according to Bloomberg.
- UK Treasury was urged by the British Property Federation industry group to reverse the decision to end stamp-duty relief for multiple dwellings and warned the move will discourage the construction of homes being built in England, according to FT.
- France launched a dispute with the UK over fishing rights after its trawlers were banned from some British waters to protect vulnerable habitats, while its diplomats will meet with UK counterparts this Monday, according to FT.
- ECB’s Villeroy said the ECB is increasingly confident that it is winning the fight against inflation which makes an interest rate cut in June very likely, according to Reuters.
- ECB’s Holzmann said on Friday that a rate cut in June is likely but depends on the data and a June rate cut is probable if CPI stays on the current path, while he added the rate cut pace will depend on inflation and wages, according to ORF TV interview.
- ECB’s Simkus says rate cut is possible in June and also in July; further trajectory of cuts will depend on July decisions; there is now more than a 50% chance of more than three rate cuts this year. Geopolitical shocks such as an escalation if the Israel-Iran conflict could cancel a June rate cut.
DATA RECAP
- EU Industrial Production YY (Feb) -6.4% vs. Exp. -5.7% (Prev. -6.7%, Rev. -6.6%); Industrial Production MM (Feb) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. -3.2%, Rev. -3.0%)
- Polish CPI Final MM (Mar) 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%); CPI Final YY (Mar) 2.0% (Prev. 1.9%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Apple (AAPL) – Co. reportedly lost its top phone maker spot to Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) after its smartphone shipments dropped about 10% in Q1, according to IDC. (IDC)
- Tesla (TSLA) lays off “more than 10%” of its global workforce, via electrek citing an internal company-wide email. (electrek); Co. on Friday lowered the monthly FSD subscription price to USD 99/month in the US (prev. USD 199/month). Separately, Co. announced to Gigafactory Texas employees that it will shorten the Cybertruck production shift amid rumours that it is preparing a round of layoffs, according to Electrek. (Electrek). Elsewhere, scouts first showroom locations in India ahead of plans to begin sales later this year and looking for new Delhi and Mumbai sites, via Reuters citing sources.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST – EUROPEAN MORNING
- “Israel is considering bringing forward the operation in Rafah from the originally planned date“; “The answer Hamas gave back to the mediators is so unequivocal against a deal”, according to sources cited by Israeli Radio correspondent.
- UK Foreign Minister Cameron says more sanctions against Iran will be considered.
- “Iranian Foreign Ministry: We advise the countries supporting (Israel) to warn it against taking any other action against us”, via Al Jazeera.
- Israeli war cabinet is to reconvene at 12:00 BST/07:00ET, via Reuters citing a government source.
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel’s military said there were more than 300 projectiles fired by Iran at Israel with some of the launches from Iraq, Yemen and Iran but noted that 99% of them were intercepted and there was very little damage caused, while it said Iran undertook a very grave action that pushes the region towards escalation and Israel’s armed forces retain full functionality and are discussing options for follow-up operations, according to Reuters and CBS News.
- Israel requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to condemn Iran and a senior Israeli official said there will be a significant response to the unprecedented Iranian attack, while it was also reported that Israeli Defence Minister Gallant said Israel has an opportunity to form a strategic alliance against Iran after the attack, according to Reuters.
- Israeli officials said a majority in the Israeli war cabinet favours a response to the Iranian attack but is divided over the timing and the scale, according to Reuters.
- Iranian President Raisi said the operation against Israel was carried out with high accuracy and they displayed the power of their missiles and drones well, while he added the operation targeted military centres and was carried out in full coordination between the field and diplomacy.
- Iran’s mission to the UN said Iran’s military action was in response to Israel’s aggression against Iran’s diplomatic premises in Damascus and that the matter can now be deemed concluded but warned Iran’s response will be considerably more severe should the Israeli regime make another mistake. Furthermore, it stated the conflict is between Iran and Israel, while the US must stay away.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Tehran will not hesitate to take further defensive measures to safeguard its legitimate interests against any military aggressions. In relevant news, Iran’s Foreign Ministry summoned the British, French and German ambassadors, while Iran also sent a message to the US via Switzerland warning that its bases would be targeted if Washington backs Israel’s retaliation, according to Reuters.
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guards commander warned if Israel retaliates, Iran’s response will be larger than seen on Saturday night and that Tehran will retaliate against any Israeli attack on its interests. The IRGC also warned any threat from the US and Israel would be met with a reciprocal response from Iran, while it was also reported that Iranian airports cancelled flights until Monday morning.
- G7 leaders condemned Iran’s attack on Israel and reaffirmed the G7’s commitment to Israel’s security, while they will continue to work to stabilise the situation and avoid further escalation, as well as demanded that Iran and its proxies cease their attacks, according to Reuters.
- UN Secretary-General Guterres said the Middle East is on the brink and people in the region are facing a real danger of devastating full-scale conflict, while he said now is the time to defuse, de-escalate and for maximum restraint, according to Reuters.
- US President Biden said he condemns these attacks in the strongest possible terms and spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu to reaffirm America’s ironclad commitment to the security of Israel, according to Reuters. It was also reported that President Biden told Israeli PM Netanyahu the US would oppose any Israeli counterattack against Iran, according to a White House senior official cited by Axios.
- US senior administration official said the US had contact with Iran through Swiss intermediaries ahead of the attack on Israel and sent the US a message after the attack, but noted that Iran did not give a 72-hour warning and its intent was to be highly destructive. Furthermore, the US official said Israel has made it clear it is not looking for a significant escalation with Iran and that G7 leaders discussed sanctions against Iran and designating the IRGC as a terrorist organisation, according to Reuters.
- US Pentagon said forces in the Middle East intercepted dozens of missiles and drones launched from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. US Defense Secretary Austin called on Iran to de-escalate the situation and the US also called on Iran to immediately halt any further attacks. Furthermore, he said the US does not seek war or conflict with Iran but will not hesitate to protect its forces and support the defence of Israel, while Western intelligence sources stated that most of the Iranian drones and missiles that flew were downed by Israeli and US aerial interceptions, according to Reuters.
- US Deputy Representative to the UN Robert Wood said the UN Security Council has an obligation to not let Iran’s actions go unanswered and the US will explore additional measures to hold Iran accountable at the UN in the coming days, while he added Iran will be held responsible if it or its proxies takes action against the US or further action against Israel, according to Reuters.
- US House is to consider legislation to support Israel next week, according to Republican majority leader Scalise cited by Reuters.
- Jordan said it intercepted flying objects that entered its airspace on Saturday night to ensure the safety of its citizens. It was also reported that Jordanian PM Khasawneh said an escalation in the region would lead to dangerous paths and stressed the need to reduce escalation, while he said the Jordanian army is ready to confront with all of its means any attempt from any party that endangers its security, according to Reuters. It was also reported that Tehran is closely watching Jordan which could become the next target in case of any pro-Israel move, according to a source cited by Fars News Agency.
- Turkish diplomatic source said Iran informed Turkey in advance of its planned military operation against Israel and Iran told the US via Turkey that its operation would only respond to the embassy attack and not go further, while the US conveyed to Iran that its operation must be within certain limits, according to Reuters.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office said Hamas rejected the hostage deal tabled by mediators and that Israel will continue to try to achieve the objectives of the war with Hamas with full force. It was also reported that the Israeli military said it will be calling up two reserve divisions for operations in Gaza over the next few days, according to Reuters.
- UK said it has been working with partners across the region to de-escalation in response to increased Iranian threats and escalation in the Middle East, while it has moved several additional air force jets and refuelling tankers to the region with UK jets to intercept any airborne attacks within range of their existing missions as required, according to Reuters.
- Iran’s state news agency reported that IRGC navy special forces seized a vessel linked to Israel and that the MSC Aries vessel was transferred to Iran’s territorial waters, according to Reuters.
OTHER
- China’s Coast Guard blocked Philippines vessels in an operation on Saturday which occurred just 35 nautical miles from the Philippines’ coastline amid increasing maritime tensions, according to FT.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin modestly softer, whilst Ethereum posts incremental gains and holding around USD 3.2k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks mostly declined as participants reflected on the geopolitical events over the weekend whereby Iran launched its first direct attack on Israel which was largely intercepted with very little damage caused, while the region also got its first opportunity to react to disappointing Chinese trade data.
- ASX 200 was pressured with underperformance in gold miners and tech, while sentiment was also not helped by the recent surprise contraction of imports by Australia’s largest trading partner.
- Nikkei 225 was the worst hit and briefly dipped below 39,000 but recovered some of the losses with the help of a weaker currency.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed as the mainland bucked the trend after recent disappointing trade data from China added to the case for policy support measures. Participants now await tomorrow’s GDP and activity data, while the PBoC provided no surprises and maintained the 1-year MLF Rate at 2.50%, as expected.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC announced CNY 100bln in 1-year MLF loans with the rate kept unchanged at 2.50%, as expected
- US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kritenbrink will travel to China between April 14th-16th, according to Reuters.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki reiterated that he is watching FX moves closely and wants to be fully prepared when questioned about forex moves, according to Reuters.
- Indian PM Modi said the BJP 2024 election manifesto focuses on creating jobs and boosting start-ups. Modi added the manifesto promises to bring all Indians above 70 years of age under the free health insurance programme and lift the cap on loans to INR 2mln for non-farming small and micro schemes, while it also promises to launch bullet train projects in the north, south and eastern parts of the country, according to Reuters.
- BoJ is reportedly shifting to a more discretionary approach in setting policy, with less emphasis on inflation, Reuters sources said; “Various data must be scrutinised, not just the inflation outlook,” one source said.
- EU is set to launch China probe on medical device procurement, via Bloomberg; could occur as soon as mid-April and result in the EU curtailing access for China to its tenders
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Feb) 7.7% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. -1.7%); YY (Feb) -1.8% vs. Exp. -6.0% (Prev. -10.9%)
3C ASIA AFFAIRS/
MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 37.91 PTS OR 1.26% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 121.23 PTS OR 0.73% / Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 290.75 PTS OR 0.76% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.51%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.23786//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.2591 /Oil DOWN TO 84/97 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 89..76/ Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
EUROPE
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS.
ISRAEL//IRAN/
Iran pirates a Portuguese ship with purported ties to Israel. Israel is calling on the European union to declare Iran a terrorist state and sanction them. This escalates the tension between Iran and Israel.
(Jerusalem Post)
Iranian forces take over Israel-linked Portuguese ship MCS ARIES
This event comes amid threats of an Iranian attack against Israel, as Israel has been on a high state of alert since late Thursday night.
By DARCIE GRUNBLATTAPRIL 13, 2024 12:29Updated: APRIL 13, 2024 14:46
Iranian forces took over the Portuguese ship “MCS ARIES” in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, according to Israeli media.
The ship is currently sailing through the Persian Gulf, according to ship tracking site, Marine Traffic. The ship was heading in the direction of India.
MSC is the manager and commercial operator of the MSC ARIES, international shipping company Zodiac Maritime said in a statement.
“MSC is responsible for all vessel activities including cargo operations and maintenance. Title to the vessel is held by Gortal Shipping Inc as financier and she has been leased to MSC on a long-term basis. Gortal Shipping Inc is affiliated with Zodiac Maritime,” said the Zodiac Maritime Shipping Company, partly owned by Israeli businessman Eyal Ofer.
There were 20 Filipinos on board the ship.
Iran state-run media stated that its Revolutionary Guards had seized the MSC Aries ship, saying it was “linked to Israel” and it was being transferred to Iran’s territorial waters.
A Guards navy special forces helicopter boarded the Portuguese flagged vessel and seized it, the Iranian state-run media reported.
Numerous media outlets cited a video reportedly seen exclusively by the Associated Press showing a helicopter raiding a ship near the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. A Middle East defense official reportedly told the wire service that Iran is behind the attack.
UKMTO reports incident
The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said on Saturday that a vessel was seized by “regional authorities” 50 nautical miles (92 km) northeast of the United Arab Emirates’ Fujairah.
UKMTO did not say which authorities it was referring to, however the two reports share the same location, and there are no other incidents in the area.
A US defense official said “we are aware of the situation reported by UKMTO and we are monitoring it” but would not confirm or deny the name of the vessel when asked if it was the MSC Aries, Reuters reported.
Israel’s military spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said in response, “Iran will bear consequences for choosing to escalate this situation any further.”
“The Ayatollah regime of Khamenei is a criminal regime that supports Hamas’ crimes and is now conducting a pirate operation in violation of international law,” Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said.
“I call on the European Union and the free world to immediately declare the Iranian Revolutionary Guards corps as a terrorist organization and to sanction Iran now.”
This event comes amid threats of an Iranian attack against Israel, as Israel has been on a high state of alert since late Thursday night. World leaders have been working to avert direct confrontation between the two rival countries.
end
Times of Israel
ISRAEL /HAMAS
Troops kill gunmen, destroy terror sites in Gaza’s Nuseirat, IDF says
The IDF says it is continuing a pinpoint operation against Hamas and other terror groups in the central Gaza Strip, on the outskirts of the Nuseirat camp.
Troops of the Nahal Infantry Brigade, 401st Armored Brigade and other forces under the 162nd Division have killed numerous gunmen, destroyed buildings used by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, seized weapons, and located rocket launchers, the army says.
Nahal troops are also operating in the so-called Netzarim corridor, a strip of land running from the border with Israel near Be’eri to the coast.
The corridor, built around a road south of Gaza City and north of Nuseirat, enables the IDF to carry out raids in northern and central Gaza while allowing Israel to control access to the north for Palestinians seeking to return after fleeing south.
The IDF says troops killed some 15 gunmen in the Netzarim corridor over the past day.
end
Houthis/USA
END
ISRAEL/GAZA/NORTHERN ROUTE/AID
end
ISRAEL/WEST BANK
Young Israeli 14 murdered by Palestinians in the West Bank. Settlers go on a rampage in Arab towns in the West Bank
(Times of Israel)
Body of Benjamin Achimeir, 14, found in West Bank; IDF, Shin Bet say he was murdered in terror attack
By EMANUEL FABIAN FOLLOWToday, 2:44 pm
14-year-old Benjamin Achimeir, who went missing in the West Bank on April 12, 2024. (Israel Police)
The IDF has found the body of 14-year-old Benjamin Achimeir, who went missing while shepherding in the West Bank on Friday.
Achimeir was murdered in a terror attack, the IDF and Shin Bet security agency say.
According to the IDF and police, Achimeir set out in the early morning hours of Friday from a farm near the outpost of Malachei Shalom to go shepherding. Hours later, the sheep returned to “Gal Farm” without him.
Malachei Shalom is located near the West Bank town of al-Mughayyir, northeast of Ramallah.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says “the heinous murder” of Achimeir is a “serious crime.”
“I send my heartfelt condolences to his family,” Netanyahu says in a statement published by his office.
“IDF and Shin Bet troops are in an extensive pursuit of the despicable murderers and all those who cooperated with them,” he says.
“We will get the murderers and those who helped them, as we do to anyone who harm the citizens of the State of Israel,” the statement continues.
Netanyahu also “calls on all citizens of Israel to allow the security forces to do their work unhindered.”
Amid the searches yesterday, Israeli settlers rampaged in several Palestinian towns. The settlers set fire to houses and cars and sparked clashes between Palestinians and Israeli soldier that killed a Palestinian man and wounded dozens of others.
Renewed clashes were reported today in the towns of Beitin and Duma, close to Ramallah.
Achimeir’s body was spotted earlier today by a drone operated by the Border Defense Corps’ 636th Combat Intelligence Collection unit, close to the farm where he initially went missing.
The murder was believed to have been carried out by Palestinian terrorists, and taken place in the late morning hours or early afternoon, according to an initial investigation.
Next to the body, troops found personal belongings that were handed over to police for investigation.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
IDF: Two of Hezbollah’s explosive-laden drones struck area near border town
Today, 4:36 pm
The IDF confirms two explosive-laden drones launched by Hezbollah from Lebanon struck the Hanita area a short while ago.
However, the IDF doesn’t provide further details on damage or potential injuries in the attack.
Hezbollah claimed to have targeted a building used by Israeli forces.
Additionally, three rockets were fired at the same area, which the IDF says struck open areas.
The IDF adds that troops are shelling the launch sites.
END
Iran attacks Israel with huge number of drones and ballistic missiles totalling 300. No injuries except a 12 yr old girl
(Jerusalem Post)
Iran attacks Israel: No drones, cruise missiles breached Israeli airspace
Seven-year-old girl from Bedouin village seriously wounded in Iranian attack. • US, Israel, UK, Jordan intercept Iranian projectiles
By YONAH JEREMY BOB, TZVI JOFFRE, TOVAH LAZAROFFAPRIL 13, 2024 22:47Updated: APRIL 14, 2024 10:36
Sirens blared across Israel on Saturday night as hundreds of drones and missiles launched from Iran reached Israel. Drones and missiles were also reportedly launched from Yemen and other countries around the region.
A seven-year-old girl from a Bedouin village near Arad was seriously wounded by the Iranian attack, according to Magen David Adom. Dr. Dan Schwartzfox, the deputy director of Soroka Medical Center, told Army Radio on Sunday morning that the girl was in intensive care and that her life was still at risk. Minor damage was caused to infrastructure at an IDF base in southern Israel during the attack as well, according to IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari.
The IDF has updated that the full Iranian attack consisted of over 300 threats, of which 100 were ballistic missiles launched from Iran. Another 30 cruise missiles were launched from the Islamic Republic, along with drones. There were also two rounds of rockets, around 40 total, fired on Israel from Lebanon, with Israel responding with counterattacks in close to real-time.
None of the drones or cruise missiles entered Israeli airspace. IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari noted that only a small number of ballistic missiles penetrated the Jewish state’s airspace.
Almost all interceptions have been by aircraft, David’s Sling, or the Arrow missile systems. The Iron Dome, which defends well against Hamas and Hezbollah’s simple rockets, is less relevant for drones and fancier long-range missiles.
Iran confirmed that its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had launched a missile and drone attack against Israel. Despite the injury of civilians, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said that Iran had conducted the attack against Israeli military bases. The ministry claimed that it conducted the strikes in “self-defense.”
The IDF said that the wide number of rocket sirens was mostly not from rockets that entered Israeli territory but from pieces of rockets shot down outside of Israel, where the remains of the rocket’s landing spots were unpredictable.
Still, the IDF said that, to date, the defense was historically effective.
IDF sources hinted at an Israeli response and historic achievements, including with the active backing of key allies, but did not give details about scope and timing.
US, UK, France, Jordan helped shoot down Iranian projectiles
Israel, the US, the UK, and Jordan worked to intercept the drones and missiles over Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Israel, according to foreign reports. France also assisted in shooting down the aerial threats.
The IDF said on Saturday night that it was ready to shoot drones down, though air defense is not hermetic. Israeli aircraft had reportedly already begun shooting down projectiles as of 12:00 a.m.
The IDF’s shoot-down capabilities include aircraft, the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and the Arrow missile system. In addition, the military can use GPS scrambling to disable certain kinds of attacking drones.
ards Israel. Al-Arabiya reported that the US was intercepting drones over Iraq and Syria.
Hezbollah said that they had fired dozens of Katyusha rockets from Lebanon towards the Golan Heights on Saturday night, setting off sirens in Snir.
On Sunday morning, about 30 rockets were fired again from Lebanon toward northern Israel. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for that rocket fire as well, saying it came in response to Israeli strikes on towns in southern Lebanon earlier in the night. One of the rockets fell in Katzrin, causing heavy damage to property but no injuries.
The IDF confirmed that more than 100 drones have been launched by Iran, while defense sources had earlier told The Jerusalem Post that hundreds had been fired.
The Islamic Republic’s attack comes after it accused Israel of killing top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi on April 1, who had directed its proxy attacks on Israel in Lebanon and Syria, including being a top coordinator with Hezbollah.
The IDF declined to publicly commit to a preemptive strike on Iran now that the drones have been launched.
Iran’s Mission to the UN stated at 1:06 a.m. that the attack on Israel “can be deemed concluded.”
“However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!” added the Iranian mission.
Security cabinet gives Netanyahu, Gallant, Gantz authority to determine response
The Security Cabinet gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and minister-without-portfolio Benny Gantz the authority to make decisions concerning further action against Iran early Sunday morning.
Ofir Gendelman, the prime minister’s spokesperson to Arabic media, warned that Israel’s response to the Iranian attack will be “firm and clear” in statements to Al-Arabiya on Saturday night.
Israeli airspace closes as attack begins, Home Front Command prepared
The Israel Airports Authority announced that Israeli airspace would close starting at 12:30 a.m. local time.
The commander of the IDF’s Home Front Command, Rafi Milo, called on Israelis to “continue to be cautious and listen to directives; they can change depending on the assessment of the situation.”
“To date, your conduct and adherence to the instructions has been exceptional; keep it up – it saves lives,” added Milo. “The Home Front Command is deployed and prepared throughout the country.”
“We have been at war on several fronts for over six months. Throughout the war we faced and rubbed shoulders with a large number of challenges in a very wide variety of threats, we learned and improved – we arrive prepared and strong both in defense and attack.”
The Health Ministry ordered hospitals to be on alert and increase the staff at medical institutions early Sunday morning. Vacations for medical staff were canceled.
Jordan takes part in intercepting Iranian attack
Shortly after the Iranian strike began, Iraqi officials announced that Iraqi airspace was being closed. Lebanon and Jordan also decided to close their airspace on Saturday night.
A number of drones were seen flying from the direction of Iran over Iraq’s Sulaymaniya province, three security sources told Reuters on Saturday. Additional waves of drones and missiles were spotted over other areas in Iraq and Jordan later in the night.
“Dozens of drones were spotted flying from Iran in the direction of Israel over Iraqi airspace,” two Iraqi security sources also told Reuters.
Jordanian jets shot down dozens of Iranian drones, two regional security sources told Reuters.
Egypt’s air defense is on alert, Egyptian military and security sources said late on Saturday, amid fears of an Iranian drone attack aimed towards Israel.
Egypt’s military General Command has formed a team to monitor the situation and make any necessary decisions regarding the country’s airspace, the sources said.
British Royal Air Force jets in the Middle East “will intercept any airborne attacks within range of our existing missions, as required” after Iran targeted Israel with drones and missiles, the country’s Ministry of Defence said late Saturday.
“In response to increased Iranian threats and the growing risk of escalation in the Middle East, the UK Government has been working with partners across the region to encourage de-escalation and prevent further attacks,” the statement added.
Iraqi security sources told Arabic media that several Iranian missiles fell near Yusufiya, south of Baghdad on Saturday night.
An Iranian drone also fell in Shiraz in south-central Iran, according to Iran International.
Iranian attack sparks panic in Iran, Lebanon
Long lines were reported at gas stations in Iran and Lebanon as residents rushed to prepare for an expected escalation in the region in light of Iran’s attack against Israel.
Netanyahu: Whoever harms us, we will harm them
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a video message before the attack said that “in recent years, and even more so in recent weeks, Israel has been preparing for the possibility of a direct attack from Iran.
He warned Tehran that “whoever harms us, we will harm them. We will protect ourselves from any threat and we will do so with steadfastness and determination.”
“Together we will overcome all our enemies,” he said as he urged Israelis to listen to the Home Front Command directives and thanked Israel’s allies such as the US, France and Great Britain for standing with the Jewish state..
“Our defense systems are deployed. We are prepared for any scenario, both in defense and attack,” Netanyahu said, as he stressed that the IDF, the state and the public were strong.
Biden: Our support for Israel’s security is ironclad
US President Joe Biden and Netanyahu spoke over the phone early Sunday morning for about half an hour.
Biden said he reaffirmed “America’s ironclad commitment to the security of Israel” in his conversation with Netanyahu, adding that “Israel demonstrated a remarkable capacity to defend against and defeat even unprecedented attacks – sending a clear message to its foes that they cannot effectively threaten the security of Israel.”
The US president added that he would convene leaders of the G7 to coordinate a “united diplomatic response to Iran’s brazen attack.”
“My team will engage with their counterparts across the region. And we will stay in close touch with Israel’s leaders. And while we have not seen attacks on our forces or facilities today, we will remain vigilant to all threats and will not hesitate to take all necessary action to protect our people,” added Biden.
Biden additionally told Netanyahu that the US would not take part in any offensive operations against Iran, CNN reported on Sunday morning.
According to CNN, Biden told Netanyahu that Israel should consider the success in intercepting the Iranian attack a “win.”
Axios reported as well that Biden told Netanyahu that he would oppose any Israeli counterattack against Iran and that the US would not participate in any offensive operations against Iran.
NBC reported that top US officials are concerned that Israel could react quickly in response to the Iranian attack “without thinking through potential fallout afterward,” adding that Biden has privately expressed concerns that Netanyahu is trying to “drag the US more deeply into a broader conflict.”
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin asked Gallant to notify the US of any potential response to the Iranian attack, a US official told CNN early Sunday morning.
The UN Security Council was reportedly set to hold an emergency meeting on Sunday afternoon in light of the attack.
end
IRAN/ISRAEL
Israel’s Defense Against Iran Attack Overnight ‘Likely Cost Over $1 Billion’
SUNDAY, APR 14, 2024 – 11:40 AM
It cost Israel more than $1bn to activate its defense systems that intercepted Iran’s massive drone and missile attack overnight, according to a former financial adviser to Israel’s military.
“The defence tonight was on the order of 4-5bn shekels [$1-1.3bn] per night,” estimated Brigadier General Reem Aminoach in an interview with Ynet news.
Aminoach highlighted that the staggering price tag stands in contrast to the relatively low amount that Iran had spent to launch its assault, which some estimates have put at less than 10 percent of what it cost Israel to stop the attack.
Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles towards Israel on Saturday, in response to an Israeli attack on its consulate in Syria that killed two senior Revolutionary Guard commanders earlier this month.
Israel said its military forces and its allies had intercepted 99 percent of the missiles, but some ballistic missiles penetrated Israeli defences and hit the Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel.
“If we’re talking about ballistic missiles that need to be brought down with an Arrow system, cruise missiles that need to be brought down with other missiles, and UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles], which we actually bring down mainly with fighter jets,” he said.
“Then add up the costs – $3.5m for an Arrow missile, $1m for a David’s Sling, such and such costs for jets. An order of magnitude of 4-5bn shekels.”
David’s Sling is a weapons system meant to intercept medium to long-range rockets and missiles. The Arrow system was designed to thwart long-range missiles, including the types of ballistic missiles Iran launched on Saturday and of long-range missiles launched by the Houthis in Yemen.
END
IRAN/USA/ISRAEL
Iran Threatens America’s Military Bases Across Middle East If US Supports Israeli Counterattack
SUNDAY, APR 14, 2024 – 09:55 AM
The Saturday evening fireworks show in the Middle East marked Tehran’s first full-scale military attack on Israel. Although largely unsuccessful, concerns mount that US military bases in the region might be targeted with ballistic missiles and suicide drones if the US supports an Israeli retaliation strike.
Israel Defense Forces spokesman Daniel Hagari told The Washington Post that Iran launched 300 drones and missiles at Israel, adding that “more than 99 percent” had been intercepted by either Israel or the US. President Biden condemned Tehran’s “brazen attack” on Israel and told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about America’s “ironclad commitment” to Israel’s security. However, the US president warned Netanyahu that the US won’t support counterattack strikes against Iran.
Ahron Bregman, a political scientist and expert in Middle East security issues at King’s College in London, told The New York Times that Iran’s direct attack on Israel last night was the first of its kind from its own territory, calling it a “historic event.”
Over the years, Tehran has used foreign proxies such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels to strike Israeli interests. At the moment, the Houthis are targeting US, UK, and Israeli-affiliated commercial vessels in the Southern Red Sea. And early Saturday, Iran seized an Israeli-affiliated container ship near the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran’s attack on Israel is a major escalation. There are mounting concerns that Israel could strike back. If so, Iran warned Washington that US military bases could be in the crosshairs of missiles and suicide drones.
“Our response will be much larger than tonight’s military action if Israel retaliates against Iran,” Iran’s armed forces chief of staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, told state media, as quoted by The Times of Israel. He said that Tehran warned Washington that any backing of an Israeli retaliation strike would result in US bases being targeted.
“If the Zionist regime (Israel) or its supporters demonstrate reckless behavior, they will receive a decisive and much stronger response,” Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi said in a statement.
Even before the attack, US bases in Iraq and Syria were peppered with attacks by Iran-backed militias. AP News said these bases were attacked more than 150 times since Oct. 7.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Fars news agency spoke with a “source” who said Iranian military officials are closely monitoring developments in Jordan, which could be the next area to target.
Earlier this year, Iran-backed militias attacked a US base in northeast Jordan near the Syrian border with a drone that killed three US troops and injured three dozen.
Remember the discussion former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Wesley Clark had with CNBC on Friday, where he mentioned that a “direct strike on Israel” by Iran could compel the Israeli Air Force to target “nuclear assets” in the country
END
SAUDI ARABIA/JORDAN
These nations played a role in defense of Iran’s attack on Israel. Israel will probably not attack Iran right now as our new alliance is forming
(Jerusalem Post)
Saudi Arabia acknowledges helping defend Israel against Iran
Saudi Arabia’s royal family posted on its website about the country’s role in defending Israel against the Iranian barrage
By TOVAH LAZAROFFAPRIL 15, 2024 15:56
Saudi Arabia acknowledged that it had helped the newly forged regional military coalition — Israel, the United States, Jordan, the United Kingdom, and France — repel an Iranian attack against the Jewish state early Sunday morning, in an unusual post on its royal family’s website.
It referenced a story on KAN News about the Saudi involvement in the military defensive operation in which 99% of the Iranian drones and missiles were destroyed before hitting their targets.
Many of the drones and missiles had to travel over Jordanian and Saudi airspace to reach Israel.
Riyadh subtly admits it played a part in defense against Iran
Jordan has been public about its involvement, while the closest Saudi Arabia has come to acknowledging it was the story it posted on its website summarizing what a source from the Saudi royal family had told KAN.
“The individual subtly acknowledges Saudi Arabia’s supposed involvement in thwarting Iranian attack drones bound for Israel the previous evening, citing that Saudi Arabian airspace automatically intercepts “any suspicious entity””, the report on the royal family’s website stated.
“The same figure takes a swing at Iran, accusing them of instigating a conflict in Gaza. This, they suggest, is a deliberate attempt to unravel the progress established towards normalizing relations with Israel, as per KAN’s report,” it added.
“In the words of the official, as put forth by KAN, “Iran is a nation that endorses terrorism, and the world should have curtailed it much earlier,” it said.
In the weeks before Hamas’s October 7 invasion, the United States had been involved in intense diplomatic activity to promote a three-way deal that would have included a strategic pact between Riyadh and Washington against Iran, a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia and Israel, and a renewed pathway to Palestinian statehood.
Hamas’s October 7 attack against Israel scuttled those efforts but did not hinder the ability of Western powers, with armies stationed in the region to work together with Arab partners, including Saudi Arabia, to build a military alliance against Iran.
The joint defensive military maneuvers marked the first time that the five armies, with help from Saudi Arabia, had worked together as a nascent coalition to repel an Iranian attack.
END
LATE THIS MORNING: ISRAEL/IRAN/ USA
US Officials Expect Israeli Counterattack On Iran As Soon As Today
MONDAY, APR 15, 2024 – 10:30 AM
Update(1030ET): The Wall Street Journal issued a mid-morning report citing US officials who predict that Israel will quickly launch a military response to Iran, and that it’s expected to come as early as today…
U.S. and Western officials anticipate that Israel will quickly respond to Iran’s attacks, as soon as Monday, officials said. But the officials said they hoped both countries could come away with a sense of victory, giving them an off ramp that would limit escalatory moves.
Israel’s war cabinet convened again Monday, however it issued now clear decision – and the question of whether the Netanyahu government has decided to pursue retribution on a military level remains open.
The WSJ report is also full of caveats while presenting the alarming assessment of US officials:
Israel might also choose to defer action until a later point. One option is “‘we will respond, but not immediately.’ Iran will give Israel reason to respond and retaliate in future,” said Ehud Yaari, a fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “I think it’s very clear at this point that Israel would have to do something about Iran at some point, but not now,” he added.
Shortly on the heels of the WSJ quote, Axios issued its own bombshell which points to way to an Israeli response to Tehran being imminent:
Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant told Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin Sunday that Israel has no choice but to respond to the unprecedented missile and drone attack launched by Iran over the weekend, a U.S. official and another source briefed on the call told Axios.
Leading European countries, including the UK, France and Germany are pleading for Israel to hold off on fears that the whole region could slide into a major war. The Biden administration has thus far been clear that it does not support Israel retaliation attacks at this point. Biden told PM Netanyahu to “take the win” after Iranian drones and missiles by and large failed to inflict significant damage or casualties.
* * *
As Israel’s war cabinet again meets Monday to debate how to respond to Iran’s first-ever direct attack on Israel, intense international reaction continues, with leading European countries joining the Biden White House in urging restraint. The United Kingdom, France and Germany have condemned the weekend Iranian attack which saw hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles target Israel, but they are warning against an Israeli counterattack, saying that this would assure that an all out war-is sparked. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said that while Israel’s mulling a military response is understandable and justified, the country must “think with its head as well as its heart, to be smart as well as tough.”
Cameron told BBC the UK’s position is that Israel will be better to not retaliate because the Saturday night attack was a “double defeat” for Iran in that its assault failed to result in major damage despite over 350 projectiles launched, and that at the same time Tehran is coming under world condemnation and isolation. Cameron said the aggression has revealed “to the world that [Iran is] the malign influence in the region prepared to do this.”
This is consistent with Biden’s words to Prime Minister Netanyahu in the Saturday overnight hours when he told the Israeli leader to “take the win” and don’t retaliate. The US is hoping Israeli decisions-makers “slow things down” at this point to avoid spiraling into major war. Washington has also affirmed it will not back any Israeli military action against Iran.
French President Emmanuel Macron also acknowledged to a French outlet Monday that the situation is “very unstable” and that Israel must show restraint. “We will do everything to avoid a conflagration,” he said to BFMTV news channel.
But Iran has accused Britain, France, and Germany of “double standards” after they all condemned the Iranian attack. On Sunday Iran’s foreign ministry summoned their ambassadors over the “irresponsible stance”, according to the semi-official Iranian Labour News Agency.
Iran has further once again lashed out at the UN Security Council, pointing out that it failed to condemn the April 1st Israeli aggression against its consulate in Damascus which killed two top generals and several others. “The Security Council… failed in its duty to maintain international peace and security,” Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani said during Sunday’s session.
He said his country “had no choice” but to react in a “necessary and proportionate” and proportionate way while still asserting the Islamic Republic does not “seek escalation or war.” However, he underscored that “If the US initiates military operations against Iran, its citizens, or its security and interests, Iran will use its inherent right to respond proportionately.“
Russia too has called for restraint, but defended Iranian actions as done in self-defense. “We have repeatedly warned that the numerous unresolved crises in the Middle East, primarily in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict zone, which are often fueled by irresponsible provocative actions, will lead to an increase in tension,” its foreign ministry said.
Unlike the West, Russia firmly condemned the prior Israeli attack on Iran’s sovereign embassy:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Saturday held phone talks with Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. The Russian Foreign Ministry said Lavrov reiterated “decisive condemnation” of an Israeli strike in Syria this month that killed Iranian generals.
Russia has previously condemned Israel’s conduct in its six-month war in Gaza.
Regional media noted of Moscow’s stance: “Russia noted Tehran’s claim that the attack was made within the right to self-defense after the strike in Damascus, which Moscow condemned.”
Interestingly, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said on Telegram that “America does not want a big war in the Middle East” as “The killings in Gaza worsen Biden’s prospects in the elections, and war between Israel and Iran would introduce additional uncertainty.”
The below is some additional commentary via Bill Blain and his Morning Porridge blog…
*
But, of course, the big issue is the Middle East.
Markets don’t like uncertainty – even though uncertain markets often offer the best opportunities. The current wisdom is that it’s all utterly dependent on how Israel responds – will they go big with an all-out strike on Iran bases and its nuclear capability, or will they take the apparent win Iran granted them over the weekend?
There has been something of the sense of a well-choregraphed dance between Israel and Iran circling each other over recent weeks and months – very aware it’s not what is done, but how actions are perceived. Everyone expected the well-flagged Iran attack over the weekend. That’s why Oil prices barely wobbled. After a few words of predictable fury, this morning there are signs an Israeli stand down might be on the cards – which would favor markets. Doesn’t mean it’s over – revenge is oft a dish best tasted cold and considered.
The weekend strikes gave Israel a tactical win. After Israel took out key Iranian generals in a pinpoint surgical missile strike on Iran’s embassy in Damascus, over 300 Iranian missiles, drones and rockets rained down, mostly in broken bits over deserts outside Israeli borders, swotted out the skies by Western and Israeli defence tech. Iron Dome and other systems were shown to work effectively.
But, strategically it might be a win for the Iran/China/Russia Axis. The strike’s apparent abject failure may have been exactly what the Iranian war planners expected. They would be very aware of how Russian drone and missile strikes have fared in Ukraine. The attack would have provided valuable information by forcing Israel to reveal just how effective their top of the range tech defences are at a time when global opinion meant there was a significantly reduced likelihood of a devasting Israeli counterstrike.
The Russians will be factoring countermeasures garnered from the strike into their current glide missile assaults, while the Chinese will already be pouring over the data to determine the practicalities of taking out similarly protected US carrier task forces in the South China Seas at some future date.
* * *
END
Israel reportedly decides to delay Rafah invasion following Iranian missile and drone attack
Today, 4:59 pm
A picture taken from Rafah shows smoke billowing over Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip during an IDF strike on January 11, 2024. (AFP)
Israel has reportedly decided to delay its much-anticipated military offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah after Iran’s weekend missile and drone strike against the Jewish state.
The IDF was set to begin issuing evacuation orders on Monday, CNN reports, citing two unnamed Israeli sources. Those plans have been placed on the backburner.
The Kan public broadcaster reported the same thing last night, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party issued a denial.
Netanyahu has several times claimed to have approved plans for a Rafah operation and more recently said that a date has been decided for the launch. But hours later, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told his US counterpart Lloyd Austin that no date had been set as the IDF was still working to finalize its plans for how it will evacuate some 1.4 million Palestinians sheltering in Rafah.
END
ISRAEL/IRAN
Israel Says Readying ‘Imminent’ Attack On Iran As Airlines Cancel Flights To Region
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, APR 15, 2024 – 01:29 PM
Summary:
- Middle East braces for Israeli ‘retaliation’ attack on Iran after Israel War Cabinet meets
- Israeli Air Force says it has completed ‘preparation’ and that an attack is ‘imminent’
- US officials tell WSJ they believe Israel will launch an anti-Iran operation today
- IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi: Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel “will be met with a response.”
- Netanyahu orders military: draw up a list of targets
- Several major airlines canceling flights to Tel Aviv and whole region.
- State Dept spox: “commitment to Israel’s security is sacrosanct”.
- G7 working on measures against Iran as China, Russia signal weekend attack won’t hurt relations with Tehran
- European allies urge Israel against military response
- Tehran warns that it’s ready to hit back harder.
* * *
Update(1329ET): It appears things are moving fast, via Israel’s Channel 12 broadcaster, following the earlier conclusion of Israel’s War Cabinet meeting:
THE ISRAELI AIR FORCE HAS COMPLETED ITS PREPARATION FOR AN IMMINENT ATTACK AGAINST IRAN
The Times of Israel top headline has switched to: War cabinet decides to hit Iran back hard, hopes it won’t spark regional war
A host of airlines have canceled flights to the region, including the following:
Germany’s Lufthansa has suspended its regular flights to and from Tel Aviv, Erbil, and Amman, up to and including Monday. Flights to Beirut and Tehran will remain suspended until at least Thursday.
KLM cancelled all flights to and from Tel Aviv until Tuesday, a spokesperson for the Dutch arm of Air France says.
Britain’s easyJet on Sunday paused operations to and from Tel Aviv. The carrier said in an emailed statement to Reuters that it will temporarily pause operations to and from Tel Aviv until April 21.
Wizz Air says it had cancelled most of its flights to and from Tel Aviv, Saturday through Monday.
Finnair has suspended operations in Iranian airspace until further notice, which may cause longer flight times on flights from Doha. A spokesperson said the Finnish carrier will reroute over Egypt, resulting in delays of a “few minutes.”
* * *
HOUTHIS, IRAN/FRANCE
Where is mighty mouth Macron now?
‘Surprising’ Intensity Of Houthi Attacks Push French Warship To Exit Red Sea
SATURDAY, APR 13, 2024 – 05:30 PM
France’s Aquitaine-class FREMM frigate Alsace has turned tail from the Red Sea after running out of missiles and munitions repelling attacks from the Yemeni armed forces, according to its commander, Jerome Henry.
“We didn’t necessarily expect this level of threat. There was an uninhibited violence that was quite surprising and very significant. [The Yemenis] do not hesitate to use drones that fly at water level, to explode them on commercial ships, and to fire ballistic missiles,” Henry told French news outlet Le Figaro in an exclusive interview published on 11 April.
“We had to carry out at least half a dozen assistances following [Yemeni] strikes,” he added. The commander of the Alsace also revealed that, after a 71-day deployment, all combat equipment was depleted.
“From the Aster missile to the 7.62 machine gun of the helicopter, including the 12.7mm, 20mm, or 76mm cannon, we dealt with three ballistic missiles and half a dozen drones,” Henry adds.
According to the French commander, the Franco–Italian Aster missile – each carrying a price tag of up to $2 million – “was pushed to its limits” by the Yemeni armed forces, as the Alsace had to use it “on targets that we did not necessarily imagine at the start.”
Henry added that Sanaa has markedly increased its use of ballistic missiles after relying mainly on suicide drones at the start of Yemen’s pro-Palestine operations in the Red Sea and stressed that the French Navy has not faced such a tough battle since NATO collectively launched its 2011 war on Libya to depose the late ruler Muammar Gaddafi.
“I was there too. It wasn’t the same thing. It has been even longer since we have engaged with this level of weaponry and violence. The threat to the boat was much greater in the Red Sea,” Henry notes.
The Alsace entered the Red Sea in late January, a few weeks after the US and the UK launched an illegal war on Yemen to protect Israeli shipping interests. The frigate was deployed as part of the EU naval operation Aspides – Greek for shield.
With a mandate initially set for one year, Aspides saw the deployment of several EU warships and airborne early warning systems to the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and surrounding waters. According to authorities in Brussels, the mission is exclusively defensive, and its forces are not taking part in US-led attacks against Yemen.
Aspides came together after several NATO members proved hesitant or outright refused to join the floundering Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG), which a top US commander called one of the largest battles the navy has fought since the end of World War II.
“We favor a diplomatic solution. We know that there is no military solution,” US Special Envoy for Yemen Timothy Lenderking said earlier this month, acknowledging the futility of Washington’s military strategy against the Arab world’s poorest country.
According to Yemeni sources who spoke with The Cradle, US officials recently offered Sanaa “an acknowledgment of its legitimacy” in exchange for its neutrality in the ongoing war on Gaza.
“[Washington] pledged to repair the damages, remove foreign forces from all occupied Yemeni lands and islands, and remove Ansarallah from the State Department’s ‘terrorism list’ – as soon as they stop their attacks in support of Gaza,” The Cradle columnist Khalil Nasrallah cited the sources as saying.
The offer also includes “severely reducing” the role of the Saudi-appointed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) and “accelerating the signing of a roadmap” with the Saudi-led coalition to end the nine-year war that has decimated Yemen.
Nevertheless, Yemeni officials have maintained that their operations in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and the Indian Ocean will continue until Israel stops the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza. “From the coast of the Red Sea or from outside it, we can achieve the goals we want in defense of our country and support of Palestine … We still have many military surprises, and there are military operations that we are keeping secret as part of a specific media strategy,” Mohammad Ali al-Houthi, a senior member of Yemen’s Supreme Political Council, announced on April 3.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
END
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES
COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG ISSUES\
Please take note of the following: population collapse looming in Greece due to sudden deaths and cancers and low fertility.
See new posts
| Milan Sabioncello | 2:08 PM (2 minutes ago) |  | |
| to me | |||
·
Greece is predicted to become the first nation to suffer “population collapse” as sudden and unexpected deaths continue soaring across the nation while fertility rates have plunged to levels lower than experts previously thought possible. Heart failure, strokes, blood clots, and…
Show more
Croatia might be in an even more precarious situation after sudden collapse of birht rates from March 2022 onwards (conceptions June 2021 onwards):
·
84 Views
GLOBAL ISSUES//GLOBAL SALES
end
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
Measles as a cause of death had largely disappeared in the US BEFORE the doctors started giving measles shots (which made the problem worse)
Yet another illness whose lethality was wildly overstated to create a booming bio-fascist industry that’s made us all much sicker than we were before they starting using their infernal needles on us
| MARK CRISPIN MILLERAPR 13 |
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Sheriff et al. very troubling CUREUS publication on self-reported cardiotoxic effects of the MODERNA & Pfizer BioNTech mRNA technology gene injection in Saudi Arabia
self-reported physician-diagnosed cardiac complications post mRNA vaccination; 747 (92.79%) vaccine uptake & alarming frequency of 218 (27.11%) reporting cardiac complications; see McCullough’s stack
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 13 |
20240210-27678-1rqn0hz.pdf (cureus.com)
McCullough’s stack:
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| Top WHO Official Testifies: Vaccine Passports Were a Scam to Push Fake Covid ShotsA top official with the World Health Organization (WHO) has admitted during an explosive testimony that the vaccine passports pushed by the agency were just a scam to advance the global vaccination agenda.READ MORE |
| WHO Demands ‘Transformation’ of ‘Food Systems’ by Ending Meat-Eating to Fight ‘Climate Change’World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has issued a statement demanding that governments implement plans to “transform” the “food systems” of the general public to fight “climate change.”READ MORE |
| California Loses $24 Billion in Homeless Crisis Funds, Republicans Demand AnswersOfficials in Democrat-controlled California have lost track of a staggering $24 billion in taxpayer funding that was meant to be spent on tackling the state’s escalating homelessness crisis.READ MORE |
| Several Jan 6 Defendants Released Pending Appeal That Influences Trump’s CaseSeveral Jan. 6 defendants have been released from prison pending the outcome of an appeal to the United States Supreme Court that has direct implications for President Donald Trump’s case.READ MORE |
| Democrats Panic over Fears Trump’s Abortion Pivot Could Lead to Victory in NovemberDemocrats are reportedly panicking amid mounting concerns that President Donald Trump’s recently declared position on abortion could help him secure a victory in the critical November presidential election.READ MORE |
| Ex-Stormy Daniels Lawyer Michael Avenatti: Trump’s ‘Hush Money’ Trial Is the ‘Wrong Case at the Wrong Time’Stormy Daniels’ former lawyer Michael Avenatti has called President Donald Trump’s New York “hush money” trial the “wrong case at the wrong time.”READ MORE |
| Another Boeing Whistleblower Comes ForwardAnother Boeing employee has come forward with allegations of major safety issues at the airline company.READ MORE |
| Arizona GOP Delays Move to Overturn Historical Abortion LegislationThe Arizona Supreme Court recently upheld a historically stringent 1864 law that makes almost all forms of abortion illegal in the state.READ MORE |
| 14-Year-Old Wyoming Boy Stabbed to Death Trying to Protect Girlfriend from Two Masked ThugsA 14-year-old boy from Wyoming was stabbed to death while trying to protect his girlfriend from two masked thugs in a shopping mall, police have revealed.READ MORE |
| Home Intruder Shot Dead after 85-Year-Old Mom Grabs .357 Magnum, Saves Disabled SonAn Idaho crook thought he was in for an easy payday when he broke into the home of an 85-year-old mother and her disabled son.READ MORE |
| Iowa Gov Signs Bill Allowing Authorities to Arrest Previously Deported Illegal AliensIowa’s Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds has just signed a bill into law that allows local authorities to arrest previously deported illegal aliens in the state.READ MORE |
| Democrat Rashida Tlaib Refuses to Condemn ‘Death to America’ Chants in Her DistrictRadical anti-Semitic Democrat Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) has declared that people asking her to condemn “death to America” chants are using “racist tropes.”READ MORE |
| Biden Makes Pitch to Voters: ‘Elect Me – I’m in the 20th Century’Democrat President Joe Biden has just publicly humiliated himself with yet another gaffe in front of a foreign leader.READ MORE |
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| CDC: Covid Shots Caused 14,000% Increase in CancersOfficial government data published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows a shocking spike in cancer among Americans who received Covid mRNA shots.READ MORE |
| UN Rolls Out Bill Gates’ Digital ID in Sierra LeoneThe United Nations (UN) is continuing to advance its digital ID agenda in Africa by rolling out Bill Gates’s Modular Open Source Identity Platform (MOSIP) in Sierra Leone.READ MORE |
| Democrat Mayor: Residents Must ‘Sacrifice’ for Denver ‘to Be a Welcoming City’ for IllegalsDenver’s Democrat mayor has declared that his residents must now accept a “shared sacrifice” in order for the Colorado city to become “welcoming” for illegal aliens.READ MORE |
| Chuck Grassley Takes Credit for Indictment of FBI’s Biden Bribery Scheme InformantRepublican Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) has taken credit for the indictment of an FBI information who had linked Democrat President Joe Biden to his family’s bribery scheme.READ MORE |
| Ex-Bill Clinton Official Sentenced to 15 Years in Prison for Spying for CubaAn official from former President Bill Clinton’s administration has just been sentenced to 15 years in prison after being convicted of spying for Communist Cuba for decades.READ MORE |
| Judge Storms Out of Trial for Arizona Rancher Accused of Shooting Illegal AlienA judge left the courtroom stunned when he suddenly stormed out of the trial for an Arizona rancher accused of shooting a migrant on his property.READ MORE |
| U.S Military Shoots Down ‘Dozens’ of Iranian Attack Drones Headed for IsraelThe United States military has shot down “dozens” of pilotless Iranain attack drones that were fired at Israel by the Islamic regime.READ MORE |
EVOL NEWS
| LATEST NEWS: |
| LATEST NEWS: |
NEWS ADDICT
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| Greece’s Population Plummets as Sudden Deaths SoarThe population of Greece has now plummeted to dangerously low levels after sudden and unexpected deaths began soaring out of control in 2021.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Top Molecular Pathologist Exposes WHO Plot to Depopulate Earth with VaccinesA world-renowned molecular pathologist has delivered a powerful whistleblower statement accusing the World Health Organization (WHO) of pushing to kill off a large portion of the global human population by pushing deadly Covid mRNA vaccines onto the public.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| FDA Commissioner Reveals: ‘Ivermectin Has No Benefit Against COVID-19’On April 11, the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) declared that ivermectin does not work at all against COVID-19.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Seattle Dance Team Barred From Performing Due to American Flag Uniforms Making People Feel ‘Triggered and Unsafe’A dance team from Seattle could not perform while wearing uniforms featuring the American flag at a country dance event because some attendees felt “triggered and unsafe.”READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Devastating New Poll for Biden Shows Black Male Support for Trump DOUBLES in Swing StatesPresident Donald Trump’s support among black men has increased in battleground states ahead of the 2024 election by more than double his support among the same group in 2020’s election, according to a poll published on Thursday by The Wall Street Journal.READ THE FULL REPORT |
The government is preparing vaccine mandates for humans to tackle bird flu as top health officials warn that the H5N1 avian influenza virus will be a full-flown pandemic before the fall.
READ THE FULL REPORT
Donald Trump ERUPTS On Corrupt Mainstream Media
Former President Donald Trump has stated that tax dollars should no longer be allocated to fund NPR. This comes after NPR Senior Editor Uri Berliner revealed instances of clear network bias. In a critical essay, Berliner disclosed that NPR’s Washington, DC, headquarters employs 87 registered Democrats in editorial positions, while having zero Republicans in the same roles. Despite his own …
READ THE FULL REPORT
ALERT: U.S. Warns Of Imminent Iran Attack
The United States has expressed concerns about a potential Iranian assault on Israel and has advised its diplomatic staff in Israel to stay close to their residences in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Be’er Sheva in the south. This cautionary message follows a series of threats from Iran, vowing to retaliate against Israel for an airstrike that took place on April …
READ THE FULL REPORT
Texas Officials Make TERRIFYING Border Discovery
Video footage reveals that on Friday, Texas Department of Public Safety (TDPS) officials made a startling discovery of 23 illegal migrants who were allegedly hidden inside a flatbed trailer. The incident occurred during an Operation Lone Star traffic stop in La Salle county at approximately 9 a.m. According to TDPS spokesperson Chris Olivarez, the driver of a “white-truck tractor towing …
READ THE FULL REPORT
Biden Rambles On Camera While Telling Another Blatant Lie
President Joe Biden once again grabbed attention this week, but unfortunately, not for the right reasons. While addressing a small gathering in Las Vegas, Nevada, the president discussed his strategy to reduce housing expenses for American households. However, the situation took an unexpected turn when he veered off track and started narrating a disjointed tale about his past as the …
READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0663 UP .0025
USA/ YEN 153.88 UP 1.070 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2496 UP .0067
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3741 DOWN .0009 (CDN DOLLAR UP 9 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 37.91 PTS OR 1.26%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 290.75 PTS OR 0.76%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .51%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 121.23 PTS OR 0.73%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 37.91 PTS OR 1/26%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.51 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 290.75 PTS OR 0.76%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2359.00
silver:$28.43
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 105.66 DOWN 13 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.112% up 8 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.861% UP 2 AND 0//100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.261 UP 9 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.826 UP 10 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.4285 UP 7 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0632 DOWN 0.0005 or 5 basis points
USA/Japan: 154.24 UP 1.439 OR YEN IS DOWN 144 BASIS PTS
Great Britain/USA 1.2453 UP .0025 OR 25 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0015 OR 15 BASIS pts to 1.3766
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2387
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2591)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.43 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.861…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 14 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.632% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.731 UP 13 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.948 UP 7 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2346.45
SILVER AT 11;30: 28.47
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: MONDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 35.95 PTS OR 0.45%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 96.25 PTS OR 0.54%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 34.28 PTS OR 0.43%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 1.20 PTS OR 0.01%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 190.13PTS OR 0.56%
WTI Oil price 84.75 12: EST/
Brent Oil: 89.30 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 93.69 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 26/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4285 UP 7 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.2790 UP 11 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0627 DOWN.0010 OR 10 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2446 UP .0018 or 18 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.257 UP 10 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .861
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 154. 21 UP 1.404//YEN DOWN 140 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3785 UP .0035 CDN dollar DOWN 35
basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 85.62
Brent OIL: 90.21
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 13 BASIS pts to 4.628%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 13 BASIS PTS to 4.733%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 5 PTS AT 4.931%
USA dollar index: 106.000 UP 13 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.42 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 93,75 DOWN 0 AND 32/100 roubles
GOLD 2,383.25 3:30 PM
SILVER: 28.82 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 248.13 PTS OR 0.65%
NASDAQ DOWN 296.65 PTS OR 1.65%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.24 UP 1.93 PTS OR 11.15%
GLD: $22-/95 UP 4/06 OR 1.87%
SLV/ $26.41 UP .78 OR 3.08%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Dollar, Oil, & Gold Jump; Stocks & Bonds Dump As ‘WW3-On’-Risk Reignites
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, APR 15, 2024 – 04:00 PM
It was all looking so shiny and BTFD-y – Iran had sent some missiles towards Israeli folks; ‘allies’ blocked 99% of them; and Israel appeared unlikely top respond ‘imminently’. Stocks were up, crypto was up, oil was down as ‘WW3-off’ meant risk-on.
But, then the headlines just kept coming from the MidEast, reigniting fears that things were about to escalate quickly once again, sending oil, gold, and the dollar roaring higher.
Add to that the fact that 2Y yields surged up towards 5.00% (after strong nominal retail sales) and ‘risk-off’ rapidly spoiled the overnight dip-buyers’ fun.
Specifically, 5.00% has not been a fun place for S&P 500 multiples in the last couple of years…
Source: Bloomberg
…and it appears the same it true for now with the majors reversing solid early gains into serious weakness as the day unfolded. Nasdaq and Russell 2000 were the day’s biggest losers, swinging from almost 1% gains to 1.5% losses by the close…
This was the biggest two-day drop for the S&P 500 since March 10th 2023 (SVB)…
Interestingly, 0-DTE traders were aggressively buying calls into this plunge in stocks (as it appeared they forgot that the buyback desks are currently in blackout and unavailable to rescue them)…
‘Most Shorted’ Stocks staged the ubiquitous squeeze attempt at the open but were sold pretty consistently from that point on -to close at their lowest in over two months…
Source: Bloomberg
It wasn’t just the small-stocks that got hit. The basket of MAG7 stocks puked pretty hard, echoing the Thursday glitch from the week before last…
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds were ugly, but before we go there, we note that stocks did end-up playing catch-down to their reality today…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were sold across the board today with the long-end hardest hit (30Y +11bps, 2Y +4bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
…which implicitly bear-steepened the yield curve (2s30s), erasing all of the CPI flattening…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar roared back up to its highest since Nov 13th – this is the biggest 4-day gain since early Feb 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
Crypto continued its roller-coaster ride, surging overnight (HK BTC ETFs?) back up to $67,000 (erasing the weekend’s plunge on the Iran attack on Israel) and then falling in line with Nasdaq as the equity selloff accelerated.
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices roared back from earlier weakness with Brent back above $90 and WTI topping $85
Source: Bloomberg
Gold dropped early on after the retail sales print, but then ripped back as war-premium was added back…
Source: Bloomberg
Schwab Global Investment Stratgeist Jeff Kleintop noted gold’s extraordinary ‘war’ gains in a post on X:
Gold has been soaring with a more than 14% gain so far this year. Prices hit an all-time high of $2,448.80 per ounce intraday on Friday as investors braced for a further escalation in the Middle East – a far larger gain than what usually accompanies a geopolitical event.
A few reasons beyond geopolitics:
- Investors remain wary of lingering inflation in the US and may be seeking gold as a hedge.
- The even stronger 20% move up in silver this year, the most AI chip exposed metal, may also be helping.
- India’s economy continues to boom, boosting gold jewelry demand in the world’s top gold consuming country.
Finally, don’t forget it’s Tax Day today…
Source: Goldman Sachs
Which seasonally is the low of the month…
END
MORNING TRADING/
AFTERNOON TRADING/
II USA DATA
Nominal Retail Sales Soared In March As Gas Prices Spiked
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, APR 15, 2024 – 08:40 AM
Ahead of today’s retail sales print, BofA’s practically omniscient analysts forecast a hot-hot-hot core print…
…and they were massively correct.
After last month’s surprise headline surge in retail sales (on the back of Motor Vehicle & Parts), consensus was for another monthly increase (but at a slightly slower pace). However, (nominal) retail sales soared 0.7% MoM (+0.4% exp), dragging the YoY change up 4.0%…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, on an NSA basis, YoY retail sales slowed and gasoline station sales are actually down (albeit modestly)…
Source: Bloomberg
The core retail sales prints were even more dramatic – Ex-Autos +1.1% MoM (+0.5% exp) and Ex-Autos & Gas +1.0% MoM (+0.3% exp)…
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, Motor Vehicles & Parts plunged the most (after last month’s surge) while Nonstore Retailers (internet retail) and Gas Stations soared the most…
Source: Bloomberg
Department Stores & Electronics & Appliances also saw sales plunge last month…
The crucial core-control group – used in GDP calculation – ripped higher by 1.1% MoM – its biggest beat since Feb 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, bear in mind that these data are all nominal – not adjusted for the surge in prices of everything, especially gasoline – so are Americans spending more… for less.
Adjusted (crudely) for inflation, this was a big drop in ‘real’ retail sales (non-seasonally-adjusted). REAL retail sales have declined for 12 of the last 17 months…
Source: Bloomberg
Translation: on a crude basis (Ret Sales NSA – CPI), Americans aren’t buying more shit.
TUCKER CARLSON…
END
Manufacturing activity in New York remains in contraction territory for fifth straight month in April
April 15, 2024 at 8:30 a.m. ET
MarketWatch
Empire State factory gauge rises to negative 14.3 vs. negative 20.9 in prior month
The numbers: The New York Fed’s Empire State business conditions index, a gauge of manufacturing activity in the state, rose 6.6 points in April to negative 14.3, the regional Fed bank said Monday.
The index had fallen to negative 20.9 in March from negative 2.4 in February.
Economists had expected a rebound to negative 10 reading in April, according to a survey by the Wall Street Journal. This is the fifth month of a reading below zero which indicates deteriorating conditions.
Key details: The index for new orders rose 1 points to negative 16.2 in April. The shipments index fell 7.5 points to negative 14.4.
Unfilled orders ticked up 0.8 points negative 10.1.
Prices paid rose 5 points to 33.7 in April. Selling prices ticked down 0.9 points to 16.9.
Optimism about the outlook for the next six months remained subdued.
Big picture: While some of the regional Fed factory readings have been weak, other manufacturing data has begun to signal some recovery. The ISM factory index rose above 50 in March from the first time in six months
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
So much for solar power:
(Mish Shedlock)
Daytime Solar Power Glut In California, Rooftop Sales Plunge 90%
MONDAY, APR 15, 2024 – 09:25 AM
Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,
Demand for rooftop solar systems dries up in California after subsidies drop. 100 contractors go out of business. Fancy that…
California Home-Solar Boom Collapses
The Wall Street Journal reports The Home-Solar Boom Gets a ‘Gut Punch’
The amount of solar power U.S. homeowners install could shrink 13% this year, as forecast by the trade group Solar Energy Industries Association and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie. More than a hundred solar contractors have already gone out of business during the past year as demand dried up, according to data tracked by Solar Insure, a company that monitors residential solar installations and helps fix problems.
The state has installed so many panels that it has a glut of solar power during the day. Last year, California implemented new rules that cut the amount of compensation most rooftop solar owners get for the electricity they send to the grid by 75% or more to manage the oversupply and soaring costs for upgrading the grid.
“It was like getting a gut punch,” says Carlos Beccar, marketing director of Fresno-based Energy Concepts, a solar installer that had to lay off more than half its 75 employees after sales plummeted as much as 90% following the new rules.
California’s solar growth is outpacing the ability of its grid to handle it. The state already supplies more than a third of its power with renewables, and it plans to raise that ratio to 60% by 2030. But because the state’s grid can’t absorb all the solar power generated during the day, it ends up throwing increasing amounts of it away or curtailing it.
Quote of the Day
When David Phippen, a third-generation almond grower in central California, first installed solar panels in 2009 to help power equipment on his farm, he recalls thinking it was “the best thing since canned beer.”
Under the old solar-compensation rules, the economics worked out. But now that those payments will be slashed, adding more solar no longer makes sense, says Phippen—even though he has more equipment and bigger electricity needs.
“We’re done with our green march,” he says.
Rooftop Solar Synopsis
California created a boom by offering homeowners a chance to sell energy back to the grid at unsustainable rates.
This year utility companies then slashed what they pay to customers by 75 percent or more.
The payback time for these systems no longer makes any sense. More accurately, if you have to subsidize something, it is not economically feasible in the first place; it just looks like it.
The boom then imploded.
Electricity Rates
Chart courtesy of EnergyBot.
It’s going to be interesting to see what California does at night and what electricity costs when the state achieves its 60 percent solar power goal.
It’s possible that electricity prices rise so much that residents will be forced to put in their own systems and buy an expensive battery storage system on top of it to escape the PG&E power costs.
How the Inflation Reduction Act Failed to Reduced Electricity Costs in Pictures
Let’s check in on the not exactly impressive energy and inflation results of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
Data from the BLS, chart by Mish
In case you missed it, please consider How the Inflation Reduction Act Failed to Reduced Electricity Costs in Pictures
Biden’s energy policy has been an inflationary disaster. And make no mistake, the IRA was nothing but energy policy, more precisely, climate policy.
Biden Promotes Climate Change at the Expense of More Global Poverty
Internationally, please note Biden Promotes Climate Change at the Expense of More Global Poverty
The mad rush to deal with climate change, even if it works (it won’t), has a nasty tradeoff (more global poverty).
And returning to la-la land, please note California Restaurants Cut Jobs as Fast-Food Wages Set to Rise
end
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM…
Pro-Palestinian Protesters Spark Chaos At O’Hare International Airport
MONDAY, APR 15, 2024 – 11:05 AM
Pro-Palestinian protesters are blocking Terminal 1 at Chicago O’Hare International Airport on Monday morning, causing chaos for travelers trying to catch flights.
Local media outlet ABC7 reports that “all lanes were blocked on I-190 west between Bessie Coleman Drive and the airport.”
A demonstration in solidarity with Palestine has resulted in traffic being blocked off leading to O’Hare. Some individuals are sitting in their cars, while others are walking towards the airport. #ohare #chicago
CBS News says “Organizers were seeking to disrupt Boeing’s operations, because the company sells weapons to Israel, and to demand an end to the US government’s arming of Israel.”
Earlier this month, a pro-Palestinian group attacked at least one Western defense company in the UK that makes critical components for F-35 stealth fighter jets.
It’s Monday morning. Don’t these protesters have jobs? Unless they are paid by shadowy groups or NGOs to create chaos.
·
Elections have consequences. Remember that when carrying your luggage to O’Hare airport. #Chicago #Hamas #LockThemUp Video: @Julio_Rosas11
Post
See new posts
Conversation
People are leaving their cars in an attempt to still catch their flights in Chicago as Hamas Supporters block the road to the airport entirely
*Developing…
end
TESLA
Two Senior Tesla Executives Leave Amid Global Layoffs
MONDAY, APR 15, 2024 – 10:25 AM
Update (1025ET):
The Wall Street Journal reports Tesla plans to reduce 10% of its global workforce, approximately 14,000 employees, confirming an earlier report by the EV blog Electrek.
Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk sent a letter to employees detailing how the company needed to reduce costs and increase productivity. WSJ obtained a copy of the email.
“As part of the effort, we have done a thorough review of the organization and made the difficult decision to reduce our headcount by more than 10% globally,” Musk wrote in the letter, adding, “There is nothing I hate more, but it must be done. This will enable us to be lean, innovative, and hungry for the next growth phase cycle.”
Separately, Bloomberg journalists on X reported that Tesla Senior Vice President Drew Baglino and Tesla Vice President of Public Policy and Business Development Rohan Patel are leaving the company.
Bloomberg noted, “The departure of Baglino is likely to reinforce concerns among some investors about succession planning at Tesla, where Musk has been CEO since 2008.”
We suspect Musk will be commenting on these reports sometime today.
* * *
Shares of Tesla Motors are muted in the early premarket trading hours in New York after a report from the EV blog Electrek cited an “internal company-wide email” detailing layoffs at the EV company amounting to more than 10% of its global workforce.
Electrek alleges that Elon Musk sent an email to staff explaining a “duplication of roles and job functions in certain areas” as the main reason for the layoffs, which could affect as many as 14,000 employees.
Here’s the full text of the email (courtesy of Electrek):
Over the years, we have grown rapidly with multiple factories scaling around the globe. With this rapid growth there has been duplication of roles and job functions in certain areas. As we prepare the company for our next phase of growth, it is extremely important to look at every aspect of the company for cost reductions and increasing productivity.
As part of this effort, we have done a thorough review of the organization and made the difficult decision to reduce our headcount by more than 10% globally. There is nothing I hate more, but it must be done. This will enable us to be lean, innovative and hungry for the next growth phase cycle.
I would like to thank everyone who is departing Tesla for their hard work over the years. I’m deeply grateful for your many contributions to our mission and we wish you well in your future opportunities. It is very difficult to say goodbye.
For those remaining, I would like to thank you in advance for the difficult job that remains ahead. We are developing some of the most revolutionary technologies in auto, energy and artificial intelligence. As we prepare the company for the next phase of growth, your resolve will make a huge difference in getting us there.
Thanks,
Elon
The latest data from Bloomberg shows that Tesla has around 140,000 employees, nearly double the 2020 level.
Electrek noted, “We don’t know which specific teams will be most or least affected by Tesla’s layoffs.”
The alleged layoffs come after the company recorded its first quarterly decline in four years and delivered 386,810 vehicles in the first quarter, far below the Bloomberg consensus of 449,000.
Slowing EV demand has weighed on Tesla shares this year, down 31%, and one of the worst performers in the S&P 500 Index.
As Bloomberg notes, the EV slowdown has hit other automakers:
The EV slowdown Tesla has felt of late has been widespread. China’s BYD Co. delivered just 300,114 battery-electric vehicles in the first quarter, down 43% from the final three months of last year, when it briefly pulled ahead as the world’s top EV seller. Manufacturers including Volkswagen AG, General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. have delayed, dialed back or altogether scrapped EV projects as consumers balk at still-high prices and a dearth of charging stations.
On Tesla’s most recent earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja said, “We just have to chase down every penny possible.”
Tesla will report next Tuesday, April 23. Wall Street analysts expect the company to turn a profit of about 50 cents a share, down from around 85 cents a share in the first quarter of 2023.
If Electrek’s report is correct, Elon appears to be tightening Tesla’s belt, suggesting broader troubles are ahead for the US economy.
end
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
Victor Davis Hanson: Gaming The 2024 Campaign
MONDAY, APR 15, 2024 – 04:20 PM
Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,
We have seen enough of the Biden-Trump race so far to predict what lies ahead over the next seven months of the campaign. Currently, the polls are about dead even. Trump, however, for now enjoys small leads in the majority of the fickle swing/purple states that will likely decide the election.
So here is what we should expect:
Biden
Biden has three major vulnerabilities and three major assets. His fate will depend on how these criteria play out.
First, on the negative side of the ledger, Biden suffers continual mental and physical decline, which is accelerating exponentially. His work week is now more off than on. Aides pray that he can get through a teleprompter without complete incoherence. His speech is so slurred, his syntax so bizarre that he seems to speak a language that is mostly indecipherable.
They rightly fear that any young attractive woman or even preteen might earn a trademark Biden weird call-out, a hair- or accustomed ear-blow, or even an attempted presidential too-long hug or neck nibble.
Steps pose an existential threat, given that the president is one trip away from oblivion. Biden is not even the diminished Biden of 2020, when, in his basement, he at least manipulated the COVID-19 lockdown to mask his infirmities and abbreviated schedules.
The odds are 50/50 whether Biden will even make it over the next five months to the August Democratic Convention. And, assuming that he does, can he rein in efforts to push him off the ticket?
Second, the Biden family is corrupt. Hunter still faces spring- and summer-long felony exposure in connection with his Biden-family brand of tax cheating. Joe knows that his own documents, first-hand witnesses, bank statements, Hunter’s emails, and testimonies from Hunter’s associates reveal that the otherwise talentless but high-living Biden extended family was surviving only by the sale of Senator, Vice President, and future President Joe Biden’s name—and his known willingness to pay fast and loose with legal and ethical constraints.
There is still some chance that, in the current impeachment investigations and trial, more incriminating evidence will emerge or turned witnesses will offer proof of Biden’s criminality. For now, Biden’s lawbreaking is completely dismissed by Attorney General Merrick Garland and by special counsel Robert Hur’s satirical-comedy-worthy argument that even overwhelming evidence pointing to Joe Biden’s criminal behavior cannot be prosecuted because of the president’s dementia.
Third, the hard-left Biden agenda is completely underwater. Not a single Biden administration issue or policy—the border, crime, inflation, energy, foreign policy, race relations, education—polls even 50 percent. Worse, Biden never addresses the inflation created by his massive spending program, the lawlessness in our streets since 2021, the spiking cost of gasoline, or the humiliation abroad, from Kabul to Kyiv to the Chinese balloon. His idea of how to combat inflation is akin to combating obesity by gaining 100 pounds, losing two, and—presto—announcing that obesity was abated.
He spiked racial polarization, proved indifferent to an epidemic of anti-Semitism, and fueled the national debt (an additional $1 trillion every 100 days).
Now Biden is warring on the Supreme Court—a dangerous precedent given that an assassin has already shown up at Justice Kavanaugh’s home, given that mobs have massed at various justices’ residences with impunity, given Sen. Schumer’s prior personal threats at the very doors of the court to Justices Kavanaugh and Gorsuch, and given left-wing rhetoric about packing the court.
All candidate Biden can do is either deny an open border, inflation, crime, racial tensions, and the Kabul humiliation—or claim that the successful policies of Trump, out of power for nearly four years, were responsible for all that crashed on Biden’s watch.
Biden, however, enjoys some natural advantages, most notably incumbency.
(Note that this was not much of an advantage to Trump himself in 2020, given the wild cards of the COVID-19 pandemic, the disastrous nationwide lockdown, and the mysterious workings of the Trump-hating administrative state. We remember the 11th-hour Pfizer declaration that there would be no pre-election announcement, as planned, of the success of Trump’s Operation Warp Speed vaccination initiative. Then, there was indeed an announcement—immediately after the election. And then there was the mysterious CIA/FBI arming of the Biden campaign, on the eve of the last debate and just days before Election Day, with the fake anti-Trump rebuttal of “Russian laptop disinformation.”)
Biden will pull every lever of incumbency, working the office of the presidency in the most Machiavellian and cynical of ways:
a) hoping to lower gas prices by not filling up the strategic petroleum reserve, jawboning illiberal and “pariah” oil producers to pump what he claims he hates, ordering Ukraine not to hit Russian refineries, and appeasing enemies like Iran to keep its oil flowing,
b) unconstitutionally sidestepping rulings of the Supreme Court to ensure more pre-election illegal student-loan-cancellation giveaways,
c) prodding the supposedly independent Federal Reserve to lower interest rates before November,
d) pressuring Mexico to tamp down illegal entries for a few months to serve their shared interests in defeating Trump.
A second asset is his army of satellites.
These include left-wing justices, weaponized federal, state, and local prosecutors, and Trump-biased jury pools. The left expects these to do what the effort to remove Trump’s name from the ballot did not: destroy the Republican candidate, financially and health-wise, and bind him with the Lilliputian ropes of Fani Willis, Letitia James, Alvin Bragg, and Jack Smith, who are eager to convict him through weaponized judges, juries, and a venomous media. They also include compromised election officials in urban counties in key swing states.
Biden cannot win unless 70-80 percent of voters in the key swing states do not vote on Election Day. Instead, their ballots must be mailed in, harvested, and curated without accustomed audit and without verification of whether voters are registered US citizens or have voted only once and done so legally.
And—his third major asset—Biden will also have billions of dollars more than Trump to pound home these themes in endless ads, social media shenanigans, and news censorship and blackouts.
Biden feels that he nevertheless must make the election hinge on destroying a monstrous, demonic, and hideous Donald Trump through any means necessary. Biden’s is not a positive campaign but will be waged by despising Donald Trump and all who support him. Expect more of those “semi-fascists”/ “ultra-MAGA” Phantom-of-the-Opera Biden hate speeches.
In the next seven months, the Biden effort will play out with three narratives:
- Trump is a January 6th insurrectionist and dictator and will “destroy democracy,” though apparently without weaponizing the FBI or removing his opponents’ names from ballots or siccing right-wing prosecutors on his enemies.
- Trump purportedly will kill women by banning all abortions while relegating non-whites to the pre-civil-rights era – despite leaving abortion up to the states, and likely gaining more Latino and Black voters than any prior Republican presidential candidate.
- Then we will hear that Trump is a felon who belongs in jail.
All this is the message of the Biden campaign, period.
Trump
Trump likewise has both assets and liabilities. His vulnerabilities are mirror images of Biden’s advantages: he lacks incumbency and the powers that come with it; he does not have an army of officials on his side; and he will have a financial disadvantage.
We have no idea how many gag orders remain. How many late-summer days will Trump spend stuck in court? How many hundreds of millions of his dollars will be expropriated by out-of-control anti-Trump left-wing judges? Can Trump—or any candidate—successfully run with a $1 billion overhead in legal fees and fines and with critical days on the campaign trail diverted to left-wing, media-frenzied, blue-city courtrooms?
In addition, Trump is sometimes his own worst enemy. Trump, one could say, is running mostly against Trump. He knows that if he sticks solely to the agenda, contrasting Biden’s failures with his own past stellar record and future contract with America, he can win. He realizes that he must take the high road and talk idealistically rather than going low and getting angry.
But who could be expected to do so after being the victim of two unfair impeachments, left-wing lies like Russian collusion and disinformation, efforts to railroad him into prison with outrageously politicized legal vendettas, and attempts to remove his name from the ballot?
Trump’s advantages are clear.
First, his record: on foreign policy, inflation, and the economy. But most important for the election is his ability to connect with people.
So far, the split-screen differences between candidate Trump and President Biden have proved overwhelmingly to Trump’s advantage: Biden in New York schmoozing at a black-tie night with celebrities and ex-presidents to haul in $26 million in campaign cash from the hyper-rich, while Trump is with middle-class NYPD rank-and-file at a rainy wake for a murdered cop—killed by a repeat felon released without bail.
Or Trump buying fast food and milkshakes amid a mostly black Atlanta Chick-fil-A crowd, while Biden dines with the venomous Robert De Niro and the zillionaire Jeff Bezos at a White House dinner, with the celebrities’ trophy girls vying to get the most stares at their multi-thousand-dollar designer clothes—as if they were on the red carpet at the Oscars rather than in the people’s house.
What can Trump do to make the best use of all this?
He must magnanimously reach out to former rivals such as Haley, even as she continues to demonize him, and to DeSantis as well. He must unite the House Republicans to keep their razor-thin majority at all costs. He must campaign nonstop among poor whites, blacks, and Latinos, appealing to shared class concerns rather than the racial obsessions and psychodramas of the bicoastal elite.
He should skip the ad hominem invective, forget the past rivalries with his primary opponents, and assume a corrupt media does not deserve a minute of his time. If he does this, he can win.
But if he climbs down into the mud with his leftist opponents, trades insults, wrestles with his opponents, and obsesses about fake news and the crooked media, he will likely lose.
Aside from Trump’s temperament, we must always remember that the answers to two other fundamental questions will determine the outcome of the election:
- Can the Republicans monitor the balloting and return it to the environment of 2016 rather than 2020?
- Can Trump convince millions of minorities, independents, and former Biden voters that there are plenty of reasons to vote for someone they may not like—including the very future of the United States as a free republic as envisioned by the Founders, rather than an increasingly weak, anemic, cranky socialist has-been?
Finally, we must also remember that, ultimately, the outcome of the election could be determined by unpredictable events.
What happens if the Gaza War expands to Lebanon, Syria, and Iran, as Israel is attacked from all directions? Or the military of the United States is attacked in the Middle East, as in the past?
What will be the status of Ukraine by November—static, safer, or absorbed by Russia—and who will be praised or blamed for what ensues?
Will China risk attacking or blockading Taiwan on the theory that it will never be gifted a more ossified president than Biden?
Will the left unleash another late-season October surprise like the 2016 Access Hollywood tape or the 2020 “Russian disinformation” laptop farce? And will these desperate gambits resonate or boomerang?
And, lastly, will the candidates in October and November resemble the candidates of today? These are the two oldest candidates ever to run for president. Will Trump still be vibrant at 78? Will Biden still be upright at 81?
Will Biden’s feebleness still earn him sympathy, or at least respectful silence? Or will it devolve to the point that the public, worn out by his lapses, concludes that Joe Biden would not be able to keep any job in America—except the Presidency of the United States?
END
SWAMP STORIES
Trump Prepares For Monday’s ‘Fake Biden Trial’ With ‘Highly Conflicted’ Manhattan Judge
SUNDAY, APR 14, 2024 – 04:55 PM
Former President Trump will take his 2024 campaign to New York on Monday, where he’ll be sitting in a Manhattan courtroom for what he decried as a “Fake Biden Trial” to face 34 counts of falsifying business records in connection with the Stormy Daniels ‘hush money’ embroglio. The trial comes after an unsuccessful bid to adjourn the case due to overwhelming pretrial publicity, which Judge Juan Merchan denied, calling adjournment “not tenable.”
Trump has taken to Truth Social in recent days, suggesting on Sunday that Merchan is “perhaps the most highly conflicted Judge in New York State history,” who gave Trump’s legal team insufficient time to analyze “hundreds of thousands of pages of documents that D.A. Alvin Bragg illegally hid, disguised, and held back from us.”
Trump’s alleged crimes…
As the WSJ notes, “The 34 felony counts in the indictment are all tied to records that prosecutors said Trump falsified as he reimbursed Cohen for the Daniels deal. They include 11 invoices, 12 general ledger entries and 11 checks.”
As Mike Shedlock of Mishtalk notes, expect a media circus.
A Recording Crime
District Attorney Alvin Bragg took each receipt, invoice, and ledger receipt and made a separate felony charge out of each of them.
Then Bragg twisted those charges into an intent to commit other crimes. Yet Trump is not charged with other crimes, only falsifying records. And it’s plausible that Trump had no direct knowledge of the mess.
Michael Cohen
This story goes back to Michael Cohen, a former attorney of Donald Trump, who landed in prison for by paying adult-film star Stormy Daniels $130,000 in 2016 to keep quiet about an alleged sexual encounter she had with Trump a decade earlier.
The Journal notes that Falsifying business records is a misdemeanor under New York state law, but it can be elevated to a felony if records were falsified to conceal or commit another crime.
What other crime? Trump is charged with none.
Meanwhile as Politico reports, in addition to taking a “wrecking ball to Michael Cohen,” with nearly half of the respondents in a recent Politico/Ipsos poll saying that Cohen is not honest…
Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg’s “Star Witness, Trump could try “asking the judge to give the jury the option of convicting him on lesser, misdemeanor offenses instead of the felony counts that have actually been brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and his team of prosecutors.”
Conflicted Juan
Journalist Laura Loomer, a Trump supporter, has posted several receipts over the past several weeks showing Merchan’s various conflicts – including the fact that his daughter professionally brags about “doing ground-breaking, historical work for clients” including “Kamala Harris, Adam Schiff, and others.”
Loomer also noted that Andrew Laufer, the lawyer for Michael Cohen (DA Alan Bragg’s “Star witness”), is tight with NY Attorney General Letitia James – who Merchan’s wife worked for in what Loomer describes as a “major conflict of interest.”
When asked by Laufer to explain the conflict, Loomer replied: “Don’t play stupid. You know what the conflict is,” adding “The Trump Trial begins tomorrow. In New York. And the star witness’s lawyer is chummy with the NY AG.“
Sununu Pledges Support
In an interview with ABC‘s George Stephanopoulos on Sunday, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) said he would support Trump even if he’s convicted.
Meanwhile the MSM is creaming over the thought or Orange Man Convicted.
As Mike Shedlock notes in closing:
Can Trump Get a Fair Trial?
That’s actually the wrong question. The right question is: Should there be a trial?
Since there should not be a trial at all, by definition a trial cannot be fair.
The charges are remarkably shaky and so is the key witness. It only takes one holdout to reach the correct conclusion, that felony charges are a sham.
END
Democrats will not support this at the senate level.
(EpochTimes)
Johnson, Trump Announce Election Integrity Bill To Require Proof Of Citizenship To Vote
MONDAY, APR 15, 2024 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Samantha Flom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and former President Donald Trump are urging support for a bill aimed at preventing non-citizens from voting in federal elections.
At a Friday, April 12, press conference at the former president’s Mar-a-Lago residence, the Republican leaders announced the bill as part of larger efforts to bolster election integrity.
“What we’re going to do is introduce legislation to require that every single person who registers to vote in a federal election must prove that they are an American citizen first,” Mr. Johnson said.
Though some jurisdictions allow noncitizens to participate in local elections, it is illegal for them to vote in all state and federal elections. However, the United States’ federal voter registration form does not require documentary proof of citizenship, and states’ efforts to impose such a requirement have been challenged by the Biden administration.
The new legislation, the speaker said, would establish new safeguards to ensure only citizens can vote. The provisions would require states to remove noncitizens from their voter rolls and would provide them with access to Department of Homeland Security and Social Security Administration databases to help them do so.
“Congress has this responsibility. We cannot wait for widespread fraud to occur … especially when the threat of fraud is growing with every single illegal immigrant that crosses that border,” the speaker said.
He added that he expected the bill to receive widespread Republican support while also forcing Democrats to go on record with where they stand.
‘The Tip of the Iceberg’
The push to secure elections from illegal votes comes amid the flood of illegal immigrants pouring across the southern border.
Illegal immigration, though a persistent problem for decades, has exploded to unprecedented levels under the Biden administration. The deluge has included individuals on the United States’ terror watch list and others with prior convictions for violent crimes.
Republicans have repeatedly said that President Joe Biden has the power to end the crisis but simply chooses not to. President Trump repeated that claim Friday, asserting that the president could and should “close the border immediately.”
“As a citizen, I demand the border has to be closed. Our country cannot take it. No country could take it. It’s not sustainable by any country.”
In an interview that aired Tuesday night, President Biden told Univision’s Enrique Acevedo that he was exploring his authority to close the border but added that there is “no guarantee” that he has that power.
Republicans have also suggested that the president deliberately created the crisis for political purposes. Earlier this week, Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) accused the administration of facilitating the border crisis to gift Democrats an advantage in both the Electoral College and Congress.
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said that suggestion was “nothing short of preposterous.”
On Shaky Ground
While the focus of Friday’s press conference was election integrity, the optics of the GOP’s de facto leader standing united with Mr. Johnson on any issue could not come at a more crucial time for the embattled speaker.
Intraparty tensions over his handling of the congressional spending battle have left his hold on the gavel in doubt. And his support for legislation reauthorizing controversial spying powers in the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) without requiring a warrant to surveil U.S. citizens hasn’t helped.
Before meeting with President Trump, Mr. Johnson voted alongside 125 other Republicans and 147 Democrats to pass the Reforming Intelligence and Securing America Act. The bill would reauthorize FISA Section 702 for two years, but with added restrictions on its use, including requiring congressional notification—and in some cases, permission—for queries involving members of Congress. The measure includes no such protections for other Americans.
The bill in question was opposed by President Trump and many among the GOP’s right flank in Congress, including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.). For Ms. Greene, the speaker’s support for the measure was just another bullet point on her growing list of reasons to oust him.
“He has not done the job that we elected him to do. And I told him that,” the congresswoman told reporters after an April 10 meeting with Mr. Johnson.
Ms. Greene filed a motion to remove Mr. Johnson from the speaker’s chair on March 22, as he joined with Democrats to approve a $1.2 trillion spending package and avert a government shutdown. The pair’s latest meeting was meant to provide an opportunity for them to hash out their differences, but according to Ms. Greene, no resolution was reached.
“We didn’t walk out with a deal,” she said outside the speaker’s office. “I explained to him that, and he acknowledged, that as a Republican member of the House, I pretty much have the best view of how the base feels and what Republican voters want.”
Mr. Johnson, who has referred to Ms. Greene as “a friend,” has acknowledged her frustrations while also contending that his power is limited due to the GOP’s razor-thin House majority.
“We will never get 100 percent of what we want and believe is necessary for the country because that’s the reality,” he told reporters heading into their meeting. “It’s a matter of math, and in the Congress, the numbers, the votes that are available.”
Jackson Richman contributed to this report.
KING REPORT
| The King Report April 15, 2024 Issue 7221 | Independent View of the News |
| On late Saturday afternoon ET, Iran launched a massive attack on Israel. Iran utilized the tens of billions of dollars that Obama & Biden gave it. Are ‘the adults’ still in charge at the WH? @TheInsiderPaper: A senior U.S. official told ABC News they now think there will be anywhere from 400 to 500 drones and missiles launched at Israel from Iraq, Syria, southern Lebanon and the Houthis but that the bulk will be launched form Iran. Reports said 3 Irani ballistic missiles caused minor damage at the Nevatim Airbase in the Negev Desert. This is the first time that Iran has attacked Israel from its own soil. Instead of a symbolic attack, Iran struck profoundly. Reports also said Iran launched a cyberattack against Israel’s air defense systems. Reports said Israeli jets entered Syrian airspace to shoot down Irani drones and cruise missiles. Later reports claimed US and UK jets, plus the French Navy, were involved in the drone and missile defense. Later, reports appeared that Saudi Arabian and Jordanian jets joined the defense. Ch. 12 Israel, citing a senior IDF official, said 99% of the drones and cruise missile were destroyed, and Israel would soon respond in an unprecedented manor with capabilities that Iran does not possess. Biden cuts weekend trip to meet with national security team on Mideast tensions: Times of Israel US President Joe Biden is returning early to Washington from a trip to Delaware to meet with his national security team regarding ongoing events in the Middle East, the White House says… Why did The Big Guy go to Delaware on Friday when moments earlier he said an attack on Israel was imminent? Joe must really need something that is provided at his beach house! When asked on Friday if Biden had anything to say to Iran about attacking Israel, The Big Guy responded, “Don’t.” PS – Intel types claim that Biden leaked intel about Iran’s attack on Friday to halt the attack. It didn’t work. @greg_price11: I literally can’t believe that a senile old fart yelling “Don’t” at the Ayatollah didn’t stop Iran from launching an attack against Israel. @bonchieredstate: Makes you wonder…what are they doing to him at that beach house that he went anyway knowing he’d have to return to the White House within 24 hours anyway? GOP @NancyMace: This is what happens when you coddle Iran. Joe Biden is trying to start WWIII. After Iran commenced the attack on Israel, numerous reports said Biden would address the nation. About a half hour later, the WH denied that Biden would address the nation and called a lid (17:13 ET). However, the Biden Campaign sent out a request for campaign contributions at 16:23 ET “to save our democracy.” https://twitter.com/RichardGrenell/status/1779290366145089675 (Ex-Sec of State) Pompeo Explains How Biden Put America and Israel in Iran’s Crosshairs “Iranians already attacked Israel on October 7,” Pompeo noted of the nonexistent deterrence that saw Iran’s proxy Hamas invade Israel and kill the most Jews in any single day since the Holocaust… Worse than merely failing to deter Iranian attacks on Israel, Pompeo said President Biden and his administration’s statements in recent days have given Tehran a green light to keep up its attacks. When asked about the sobering threat against Israel on Friday, Biden’s message to Iran was simply: “don’t.” But that’s not a policy, Pompeo noted. “It’s not even a deterrent.”… https://townhall.com/tipsheet/spencerbrown/2024/04/12/pompeo-on-iran-and-israel-n2637722 @MatthewFoldi: I hope it was worth Joe Biden trying to get some votes in Michigan. Ex-DJT aide @MorganOrtagus: Biden allowed the UN sanctions on Iran’s drones and ballistic missiles to expire less than six months ago. The very same drones and missiles en route to Israel right now. Biden Treasury Dept official testifies ‘any dollar’ Iran gets in aid will fund ‘violent’ activities https://t.co/bm7frCZs8o Ex-Intel officer @MPPregent: The IRGC killed 30 Americans and took American hostages through Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad on Oct 7th, and the Biden WH continues to appease Iran instead of holding Tehran responsible. Iran warns U.S. to stay out of fight with Israel or face attack on troops (Iran warned again on Sat.) https://www.axios.com/2024/04/12/iran-israel-attack-us-troops-warning NBC: Some top U.S. officials are concerned Israel could do something quickly in response to Iran’s attacks without thinking through potential fallout afterward, according to a senior administration official and a senior defense official… President Joe Biden has privately expressed concern that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to drag the U.S. more deeply into a broader conflict, according to three people familiar with his comments… (Iran attacks, Biden quickly hurls blame/outrage at Israel!) https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-attack-strikes-live-updates-rcna147477 @bhweingarten: Biden lights Israel on fire, then “privately expresse[s]” — in a leak to the whole world — that Bibi “is trying to drag the U.S. more deeply into a broader conflict.”… Biden told Netanyahu US will not participate in offensive operations against Iran, US official says Biden tells Netanyahu tonight was a win, nothing of “value” hit in Israel, US official says: CNN https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-04-13-24/h_9af74a4dbc6d0137a9a2597bd1f5e2a6 (Transparent request/command to NOT retaliate to Iran’s massive attack on Israel and another Team Obama-Biden rapid-response leak to appease Dem leftists and salvage Michigan votes!) Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: Officials have ignored multiple requests for guidance on the NBC report saying Biden is concerned Israel will drag the US into wider conflict – as of right now, they have NOT shut it down. Israeli media reported tonight, via a senior Israeli official, that an ‘unprecedented response’ is coming to Iran’s attack tonight and Israelis “should not go to bed because of what’s coming.” Also this week, US admin officials publicly aired frustration via media reports that Israel left them in the dark on the Damascus strike, putting US troops at risk in the region and threatening regional escalation. Ex-DJT DNI @RichardGrenell: I’m getting angrier every hour with the Biden Administration. They’ve ushered in multiple wars. They did this! They must not just be defeated in November – they must be shown a humiliating defeat so that no Democrat ever supports radical Left policies. @Aviation_Intel: Iran has set Netanyahu up for what he has been wanting for decades. Will he take the opening and go big against Iran’s nuclear program… or go for a limited operation aimed at hurting Iran in other ways, especially economically… Iran’s display/demonstration of potential delivery systems, and willingness to employ them on Israel directly, even if largely unsuccessful, has also given him better backing to go after their nuclear program… Netanyahu called off retaliatory strike on Iran after call with Biden – New York Times https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-called-off-retaliatory-strike-on-iran-after-call-with-biden-new-york-times/ NYT: Whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and his government will agree to leave it at that was not immediately clear… That will generate criticism of Mr. Biden from conservatives, who quickly went public urging a powerful military reprisal against Iran — not only by Israel, but by the United States, as well. “We must move quickly and launch aggressive retaliatory strikes on Iran,” Senator Marsha Blackburn, Republican of Tennessee, said in a statement posted online… https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/14/world/middleeast/biden-netanyahu-israel-iran-strikes.html CNN on Sunday: Israel mulls response to unprecedented Iranian attack as West urges Netanyahu to avert all-out war – Iran says next attack could be ‘much bigger’ https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/14/middleeast/israel-iran-attack-response-intl/index.html @MatthewFoldi: The Democratic Party got in bed with Iran because of Obama’s psychopathic hatred of Israel. Today we see just how dangerous those results are. Accountability? Dave Portnoy @stoolpresidente: There is no country that is consistently attacked by their enemies + then told to use restraint when defending themselves (despite superior military) more than Israel. I want peace for all innocents in Middle East. I also fully support Israel’s right to exist + defend itself. Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: Interesting in light of Iran’s statement thru UN rep that “the matter can be deemed concluded.” Basically, trying to message success to a domestic audience, while trying to contain international response. SecDef statement reiterates implicit message from Biden – that US is seeking to deescalate: “We do not seek conflict with Iran, but we will not hesitate to act to protect our forces and support the defense of Israel…I am grateful for the professionalism and the skill of the brave U.S. troops who took part in today’s actions and who continue to stand guard to prevent further conflict or escalation.” https://twitter.com/JacquiHeinrich/status/1779354886469042191 Dem Sen. Schumer, who usually scurries to the lights and cameras, should be vigorously confronted about his strident support for Biden’s policies that aided & abetted Iran and Hamas. PS: The House passed a bill to increase aid to Israel, but Schumer tabled it in the Senate. @jakejakeny: Tonight’s events are a total humiliation for Biden, Obama, Schumer, Blinken, Lew, Nadler, & all those who supported or allowed the Iran Deal to happen. They funded this attack tonight & the Biden team’s warnings to Iran were proved to be totally impotent. Dem Sen. @ChrisVanHollen: I condemn the Iranian attack on Israel and support Israel’s right to defend itself against this aggression. I also stand with @POTUS in seeking to prevent an even wider conflict that engulfs the people of the entire region. @wajacobson: For weeks you have been trying to prevent arms shipments to Israel. Biden statement on Saturday night: https://twitter.com/BillBishopKHOU/status/1779343455560347751 @themarketswork: Obama quietly made several notable changes to the language on ballistic missiles in the Iran Nuclear Deal that allowed Iran to continue ballistic missile development… (elaboration at link) https://twitter.com/themarketswork/status/1779305266087100541?s=02 @AmichaiStein1 (late Sat night ET): Israel: Hamas responded negatively to the latest outline for a hostage deal presented by the head of the CIA, Sinwar does not want a deal. Gold and silver soared during Asian trading on Friday. May Silver rallied as much as 2.74%; June Gold rallied as much as 1.7%, to a peak of 2412.80. The state and their central bank stooges hate when gold rallies sharply. It signifies that a critical mass of big money has lost confidence in them. The conventional wisdom on Friday was that the recent surge in gold is due to fear that Iran and Israel are about to engage in a hot war. Intractable and escalating US inflation with a craven, overly political Fed and reckless US deficit spending have been primary factors for months. After the NYSE opening, gold and silver soared on retail buying. June Gold hit 2448.80; May Silver hit 29.905. Then, as is usually the case when gold rallies, someone aggressively manipulated gold lower. June gold sank to 2999.20 at 11:31 ET, a 53-handle plunge in only 27 minutes. Gold eventually fell to a daily low of 2350.60, -$98.20 from the top. Someone desperately wanted to push gold lower! June Gold (2016.30 low on February 14, 2024) has rallied $448.50 (22.2%) in less than two months. Oil and gasoline soared on Friday due to the worsening geopolitical landscape and inflation angst. @tassagency_en: Belarus has strengthened security and defense at its infrastructure facilities near the Ukrainian border and will respond harshly to any attempts to attack them from the Ukrainian side, President Alexander Lukashenko (Overt Putin stooge) said. (To prepare for Ukrainian attacks) @Gerashchenko_en: (Putin stooge & Belarus President) Lukashenko said that Ukraine and the West should start negotiations with Russia. “Today is the moment, first of all for the Ukrainians, to sit down at the negotiation table and finally come to an agreement,” Lukashenko said. Why today? Turkey reportedly proposes new draft peace treaty to Zelensky and Putin a commitment by both the US and Russia not to use nuclear weapons under any circumstances, and to resume the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (Start III), including a clause that would prohibit unilateral withdrawal from the treaty. non-interference in the internal affairs of another country in any way that could destabilise its government. freezing the war along the current front line. a commitment to hold referendums in 2040: a national Ukrainian referendum on the country’s foreign policy, and referendums to be held under international supervision in all Ukrainian territories annexed by Russia at the time the conflict was frozen. a guarantee that Ukraine remains non-aligned until 2040. an exchange of all prisoners of war. Russia not objecting to Ukraine joining the European Union… https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2024/04/11/turkey-reportedly-proposes-new-draft-peace-treaty-to-zelensky-and-putin-en-news (Polish Institute of International Affairs) @dszeligowski: Turkey is just the messenger conveying the bad news. The proposal to freeze the conflict comes from Washington and has already been presented to Ukraine. But our American colleagues are walking on thin ice. They get the nature of this conflict wrong, and so their recipe is flawed. I believe there is much more behind it, this time. On Thursday, the usual suspects poured into Fangs and related trading sardines for the ingrained earnings season rally. On Friday, China torpedoed them. WSJ: China Tells Telecom Carriers to Phase Out Foreign Chips in Blow to Intel, AMD – Beijing’s move is the latest installment in a U.S.-China technology war that is splintering the global chip industry Semiconductors stocks got eviscerated, which tanked Fangs and related trading sardines. But wait! There’s more! JP Morgan issued troubling guidance. Down go big banks! Big banks warn of uncertain year ahead after mixed financial performances in the first quarter JPMorgan reported a modest 6% rise in profits Friday while profits at Wells Fargo and Citigroup declined, though both topped Wall Street expectations. “Many economic indicators continue to be favorable. However, looking ahead, we remain alert to a number of significant uncertain forces,” JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said, citing the wars in Gaza and Ukraine as well as other geopolitical pressures, high levels of government spending across the world and “persistent inflationary pressures.”… In call with reporters, Citigroup executives echoed Dimon’s comments. Mark Mason, Citi’s chief financial officer, said that while the bank still sees an economic soft landing — where inflation cools while keeping the economy growing — risks to the economy abound… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-reports-6-rise-1q-115908047.html Bull Case Fizzles for Big US Banks to Earn Ever-More on Lending – BBG 12:03 ET JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. both reported net interest income — the earnings they generate from lending — that missed analysts’ estimates Friday, as executives pointed to increasing funding costs. At JPMorgan, NII slipped from the prior quarter for the first time in almost three years, with Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon predicting the bounty from elevated rates will normalize instead of soaring ever higher… https://www.yahoo.com/news/bull-case-fizzles-big-us-160354156.html Fed’s Collins (Boston Pres) CPI Doesn’t Change Oulook for Inflation to Come Down – BBG 9:02 ET Fed’s Collins: Too Soon to Tell if It’s an Inflation Bump or More – BBG 9:03 ET Fed’s Collins: ‘Very Optimistic’ that We’ll See Inflation Come Down – BBG 9:05 ET Fed’s Collins: Election ‘Absolutely’ Does Not Impact Timing of Cuts – BBG 9:07 ET Fed’s Collins: CPI and PCE Inflation Don’t Always Move in Lockstep – BBG 9:08 ET @RealEJAntoni: Translation: we’re going to ignore all the warning signs of accelerating inflation and cherry pick a few anomalous data points to justify a blatantly political decision in an election year. Fed’s Collins Sees No Urgency to Cut Interest Rates in Near Term – BBG 9:27 ET Fed’s Goolsbee (Chicago Pres) Says Housing Is Key to Getting Inflation Down – BBG 12:44 ET Fed’s Schmid (KC Pres) Rejects Preemptive Cuts amid Lingering Inflation – BBG 13:35 ET Please note that even reporters are asking Fed officials about cutting rates for the election! Fed officials repeatedly exclaim that they are surprised ‘how well’ the economy is doing and how intractable inflation is. How could these inadequately educated economists not recognize or understand the consequences and effects of borrowing and spending $1 trillion in 100 days? @ces921: 2-year inflation breakeven yields have broken out to 1-year highs, and are above levels seen last fall when “a substantial majority” of Fed members anticipated another rate hike in 2023. And before you tell me this is just oil, note that oil was steadily ranging between $85-95 back then vs between $85-87 over last couple weeks, so clearly it is more than just oil… Why is Fed policy still asymmetric in this environment? Why is the bar to hike rates from here as the next move so much higher than the bar to cut rates? (They want Biden re-elected)… If they are truly data dependent, we should be pricing in much higher odds that the next move is a hike, rather than the still near 0% chance right now. https://twitter.com/ces921/status/1778814753378279841 @KobeissiLetter: Over the last 12 months, the US Treasury issued a cumulative $21 TRILLION of T-Bills, the most in history. During 2023, the government sold a record $23 trillion worth of Treasuries. Since the end of 2019, the total Treasury market has increased by more than 60% to $27 trillion. It is now ~6x larger than it was prior to the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile, total US debt has is currently rising by $1 trillion every 100 days. Debt crisis is an understatement. @GlobalMktObserv: The govt had a chance to lock in lower rates and never exploited it. The US debt-to-GDP ratio is now 124%, near the record of 126% in 2020. CBO estimates that in 2034 it will reach 131%. In history, 51 out of 52 countries with a ratio above 130% defaulted. The FT’s Martin Wolf: The tree of debt must stop growing Since the era of ultra-low interest rates ended, large-scale government borrowing is looking more and more problematic – “trees don’t grow to the sky”. At some point the tree’s weight becomes unsupportable. This is also true of fiscal debt. Limits on debt exist for every economy, even one as mighty as that of the US… https://www.ft.com/content/8aae5789-5eb2-45f8-98ba-981b31a99055 April University of Michigan Sentiment 77.9, 79 expected, 79.4 prior; Current Conditions 79.3, 81.9 expected, 82.5 prior, Expectations 77, 78 expected, 77.4 prior, 1-year Inflation 3.1%, 2.9% expected and prior, 5-10-year Inflation 3.0%, 2.8% expected and prior UMich Inflation Expectations Jump Higher at… April, Sentiment Sinks but Democrats Happy Democrats appear the most confident, with their sentiment pushing to its highest since June 2021. This as both Republicans and Independents saw confidence decline… https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/umich-inflation-expectations-jump-higher-start-april-sentiment-sinks-democrats Energy prices soar almost 30 percent under Biden — 13 times faster than previous 7 years: analysis https://t.co/3WZXLTFEos @kurtsaltrichter: McDonald’s prices have more than doubled since 2014. The fast-food chain’s average price increase is more than triple the actual inflation rate. https://t.co/C5XOQu9YfJ Biden’s new take on inflation: Trump would be worse (More Obama-Biden gaslighting!) Policymakers generally agree that deficit spending leads to higher inflation. The skyrocketing price tag of the IRA — its climate provisions could end up costing $1.2 trillion, three times higher than the original estimate — could end up increasing inflation, not reducing it. https://www.axios.com/2024/04/13/biden-trump-inflation-worse-tariffs Joe Biden lies and lies and lies because he’s never had to pay any price – NY Post Editorial Board And the only way to make Joe finally pay a price for his lies is for the voters to do it in November… https://nypost.com/2024/04/13/opinion/joe-biden-lies-and-lies-and-lies-because-hes-never-had-to-pay-any-price/ @BobEUnlimited: All the long-term demand for US equities has come from the corporations themselves. That creates a very tight self-reinforcing loop between their FCF and equity prices on the upswing, and the downswing too. (Since 2000, Corps have bought $5.5 trillion of stocks; Foreign Investors $1.8T, Households $0.6T, Mutual Funds -$0.5T, Pensions -$2.2T per Fed and GS) https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited/status/1778833709937930537 ESMs traded in a tight range, and mostly positive, from the Nikkei open until they broke down near 5 ET. ESMs stair stepped to a daily low of 5152.25 (-91.00) at 13:29 ET. After a bounce to 5174.00 at 14:11 ET, ESMs fell to 5155.75 at 14:39 ET. This halted the rally: WSJ: U.S. Moves Warships to Defend Israel in Case of Iranian Attack ESMs made a minor new daily low of 5151.50 at 15:00 ET. It was time for the last-hour rally. ESMs plodded to 5170.75 at the NYSE close. USMs were +26/32 at 16 ET; the high was 116 14/32, +1 6/32. Biden Says He Expects Attack on Israel Sooner Not Later – BBG 15:02 ET (Friday) Biden Says Iran Will Not succeed – BBG 15:04 ET Positive aspects of previous session Nothing if you don’t deem the blatant gold manipulation as a positive Negative aspects of previous session Bonds, gold (until the manipulation), and energy commodities soared while stocks sank China caned conditioned traders that had poured into Fangs and related trading sardines Ambiguous aspects of previous session Who blatantly manipulated gold lower on Friday? Qui bono? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5135.46 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5175.03; 5107.94 Sky News on Sunday: Iran attack ‘was like a declaration of war’, says Israeli president https://news.sky.com/video/share-13115322 @Jerusalem_Post: Iran informed Turkey in advance of its planned operation against Israel, a Turkish diplomatic source told Reuters on Sunday, adding that the US conveyed to Iran via Ankara that its operation must be “within certain limits.” (Team Obama-Biden okayed the attack on Israel?) https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-796998 We’re old enough to remember when The Big Guy told Putin it was okay to invade Ukraine if the action was a “minor incursion.” He just did a similar acquiesce with Iran! No joke! Top Intelligence Republican says U.S. should NOT involve military with Israel counter attacks yet – but warns Biden if he ‘fails to step up to the plate’ there will be broader conflict with Iran https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13306989/us-republican-military-involvement-israel-warns-biden-iran-conflict.html @visegrad24: Yesterday’s attack against Israel was the largest combined drone-cruise missile- ballistic missile attack against a country in history. (And Israel is supposed to forget about it!) Ex-Israel PM @naftalibennett Some points regarding the overnight Iranian missile attack on Israel: 1. Contrary to what pundits are saying, this wasn’t designed merely as “bells and whistles” with no damage. When you shoot 350 flying objects timed to hit Israel at the same moment, when you use three fundamentally different weapon types—cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and UAVs, you’re looking to penetrate Israel’s defenses and kill Israelis… 4. The Islamic Republic of Iran made a big mistake. For the past 30 years it’s been wreaking havoc on the region—through its proxies… The Mullahs send others to conduct horrendous terror attacks, and die for them… Israel’s strategic mistake for the past 30 years was to play along this strategy. We always fought the Octopus’ arms, but hardly exacted a price from its Iranian head. This should change now: Hezbollah or Hamas shoots a rocket at Israel? Tehran pays a price… 6. Israel is fighting everybody’s war. In Gaza, Lebanon and Tehran. We’re considered “the small satan” by radical Islam. America is the big one… https://twitter.com/naftalibennett/status/1779601465662648467?s=02 Sen. Marco Rubio accuses Biden of trying to appeal to ‘anti-semites’ by ‘leaking’ details of his call with Netanyahu where president told Israel the U.S. will NOT assist in counter attacks against Iran https://t.co/EOMFBwxZGu Sen. Kennedy advises ‘wobbly’ Biden to get tough on Iran after Israel attack: ‘Go on Amazon and buy a spine’ https://t.co/Qsf6p1Yqjz GOP Sen. @LindseyGrahamSC: Only the Biden Administration would consider hundreds of missiles and drones being launched at your country by Iran “a win.” @EVKontorovich: Biden to Israel: Do you me a solid and don’t eliminate Iran’s existential threat to your country so I can go back to keeping you from eliminating Hamas’s existential threat to your country; the whole thing is a big existential threat to my reelection. For Biden, this is the worst time for Israel to take out Iran’s missiles: it will mess up his re-election. For Israel, it is the only time: imagine if Iran already has nukes, or Biden gets re-elected and faces no domestic constraints. Israel’s window for ensuring survival is next few months. White House ripped over sanctions waiver that critics say put billions of dollars in Iran’s hands https://t.co/5O29l8hMnZ How Obama Secretly Gave Iran Access to Billions of Dollars Which Ended Up in Hands of Hezbollah, Houthis in Yemen & Iran’s Own Quds Force https://t.co/ki5whiXxfS Former DNI Ratcliffe exposes Biden’s ‘long list’ of Iran blunders that led to the historic attack https://t.co/Qnms9iBsr8 Israeli intelligence ‘jammed GPS signals to confuse attackers’ – as the IDF claims to have intercepted ‘99% of Iran’s drones and missiles’ https://t.co/bn2A3dXnt9 The WSJ reports that US officials claim, “roughly 50% of the ballistic missiles fired by Iran failed to launch or crashed before reaching their target.” Ex-NATO leader rips ‘timid’ White House for not hitting harder at Iran-backed Houthis https://t.co/vOW1sISnYT Michael Oren: How Did the War Begin? With Iran’s Appeasers in Washington – Historians will look back and wonder how the U.S. not only allowed Iran to repeatedly assault its citizens, soldiers, and allies—but rewarded it for doing so. https://www.thefp.com/p/michael-oren-iran-biden-obama @stevenacook: Lots of talk about Israel striking Iran’s embassy in Damascus. The Israelis actually hit the IRGC (HQ), which has been coordinating chaos around the region. That said, if we want to have a conversation about the sanctity of embassies, let’s have one… Saudi official says Iran engineered war in Gaza to ruin normalization with Israel https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/saudi-official-says-iran-engineered-war-in-gaza-to-ruin-normalization-with-israel/ US, Britain Launch Airstrikes Against Houthi Targets (Biden quid pro quo for not attacking Iran?) https://www.voanews.com/a/us-britain-launch-airstrikes-against-houthi-targets/7469835.html Iranian general whose assassination triggered weekend attack on Israel helped plan Oct. 7: report https://t.co/uzmmE1iMf7 7-year-old Arab girl is only known casualty of Iran attack https://trib.al/HEuXy6g On Sunday, Israel pounded Hezbollah positions in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Perhaps, Bibi is trying to ensure that those closest to Israel are euthanized a bit before he deals with Iran. On Sunday EU Council Pres @CharlesMichel: With G7 leaders, we unanimously condemned Iran’s unprecedented attack against Israel. All parties must exercise restraint. We will continue all our efforts to work towards de-escalation. Ending the crisis in Gaza as soon as possible, notably through an immediate ceasefire, will make a difference. The situation in the Middle-East, including Lebanon, will be discussed at the European Council next week. Iran bombed Israel and then declared a ceasefire. As Iran struck Israeli, the usual suspects, including US Dems and EU officials, expressed solidarity with Israel. But Team Obama-Biden, Iran, EU officials, and other Israeli haters quickly commanded Israel to not retaliate. Yes, Virginia, this is a recurring Dem & EU equivocation. it occurred after the October 7 massacre. @ABC: Israeli military officials have submitted “a wide range of options” to respond to Iran’s missile strike Saturday, IDF spokesperson Peter Lerner told reporters early Monday morning in Tel Aviv. Today – China and Iran-Israel thwarted the Friday and earnings season rallies. But this is Expiry Week and earnings season has just commenced – plus it’s Monday. ESMs opened lower on Sunday night, but someone immediately forced them higher. ESMs ran from 5164.25 at 18:00 ET to 5187.50 at 18:42 ET. There is no reason to aggressively buy ESMs when reports say Israel will strike Iran with a significant action within 24-48 hours! Only someone trying to keep ESMs from tanking would do that! Oil and gold traded the same as ESMs! It certainly looks like someone huge is rigging markets! Qui bono? ESMs are 5181.50, +14.00 at 20:15 ET. Wall Street barkers are spewing the appeaser talking points that Iran’s attack was purposely weak. The usual suspects want to play for the above-noted rallies. However, if the actors that stabilized ESMs, gold and oil disappear during NYSE trading, look out! Best guess: Israel destroys Iran’s nuclear stuff. Expected earnings: MTB 3.10, SCHW .74, GS 8.81; Expected economic data: Mar Retail Sales 0.3% m/m, ex-Autos 0.5%, ex-Autos & Gas 0.3%; Apr Empire Mfg. -5.0; Feb Business Inventories 0.3% m/m Fed Speakers: Dallas Pres Logan 2:30 ET in Tokyo S&P Index 50-day MA: 5111; 100-day MA: 4911; 150-day MA: 4720; 200-day MA: 4659 DJIA 50-day MA: 38,891; 100-day MA: 37,946; 150-day MA: 36,576, 200-day MA: 36,125 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5123.41 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4638.30 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5039.51 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5279.48 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5162.17 triggers a buy signal Biden feebly read, from his notes, a tribute to US pilots that intercepted Irani drones and missiles. https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1779649726922551565 @RNCResearch: UConn’s Donovan Clingan on visiting the White House after winning last year’s NCAA title: “Took a picture with Joe Biden — a team picture. Joe Biden talked to us for about three minutes and then right after that, he asked us for a picture again…” https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1778822090419851306 @elonmusk: The real President is whoever controls the teleprompter. @libsoftiktok: Left-wing activists learn to chant “D*ath to America” and “D*ath to Israel” in Farsi at a conference in Chicago. The enemy is already here. https://t.co/ZtsnRIN34L | |
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING ED DOWD
sawatchdog.com/government-media-pretending-massive-health-crisis-not-going-on-ed-dowd
Government & Media Pretending Massive Health Crisis Not Going On – Ed Dowd
By Greg Hunter On April 13, 2024 In Market Analysis114 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)
Former Wall Street money manager Ed Dowd is still a skillful number cruncher. His recently updated and wildly popular book “Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021, 2022 and 2023” has been correctly documenting the huge numbers of deaths and injuries caused by the CV19 bioweapon vax. Many are waking up to this crime against humanity, but many remain in the dark because the government and Lying Legacy Media (LLM) continue to cover up the worst murder and disability fraud in world history. Dowd says, “At this point, it’s overwhelming and has become almost comical. . . . This is asymmetric information. So, we have governments and media continuing to pretend a massive health crisis with chronic illness, deaths and disabilities is not going on. The data would suggest otherwise. . . . The data we have made public is free, but some people want projections and decision-making ideas. These are things we might end up starting a business from. I would have never thought we could. This is what asymmetric information does, and the government and the media are suppressing this information.”
A quick look at the overall casualties from the CV19 vax reveal an unparalleled medical disaster. Dowd explains, “I went before Senator Ron Johnson in February to talk about the ‘pandemic scorecard,’ which is abysmal. Ever since the CV19 vaccine came on, we have had 1.1 million Americans die excessively, 4 million permanently disabled and another 28 million injured. It’s 33 million people who have been negatively affected now. The question you have to ask is why are these institutions not screaming from the rooftops? I think the reason why is, it’s all because of the (deadly) vaccine. It’s all circular, and I think it’s a joke at this point.”
Is the worst over? The short answer from Dowd is No. Dowd contends, “Let’s just look at the disability data. We surged to a new high in June of 2023. We have not gone to a new high since. It kind of backfilled a little bit, but the last two months we have seen back-to-back increases. This is a called a plateauing effect. If it was all clear, I would like to see that number come down. Unfortunately, it’s not. It can start to go back down, or it can have another consolidation and another spurt upward. The bad news is it is plateauing at a new high level. The good news is it has not gone up to a new level, but if it does, we have problems.”
One big problem Dowd has spotted is an explosion of cancers and, yes, you cannot get the truth about this either. Dowd says, “The fact that people will not even say that cancers are on the rise is pretty comical to me. Doctors were reporting it anecdotally, and now we have the data to prove it. This is where we are. In 2022, I said that ‘60,000 millennials died excessively between March of 2021 and February of 2022. That was a Vietnam War.’ That tweet went viral, and Reuters and AP fact checked me and said no, our experts say that’s not true. Now, even the establishment is saying there is excessive all-cause mortality. So, we are now in a stage where cancers are not rising. They are now denying that. The lies are just unreal.”
There is much more in the 36-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd, author of the recently updated book called “Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021, 2022 and 2023” for 4.13.24.
(Tech Note: If you do not see the video, know it is there. Unplug your modem and plug it back in after 30 sec. This will clear codes that may be blocking you from seeing it. In addition, try different browsers. Also, turn off all ad blockers if you have them. Finally, clear your Cashe and that might help too. https://its.uiowa.edu/support/article/719 All the above is a way Big Tech tries to censor people like USAWatchdog.com.)
After the Interview:
SEE YOU TUESDAY
harveyorganblog.com 
