APRIL 18 BLOG: GOLD CLOSED UP $11.30 TO $2383.70 WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TO $28.32//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $1.05 TO $943.60 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS UP 35 CENTS TO $1029.20// GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT BY JIM RICKARDS//HUGE SHORT SQUEEZE IN THE TIN COMMODITY MARKET//EUROPEAN COMMISSION READY TO SUE ITS MAJOR SPONSER GERMANY RE: GAS TARIFFS/ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES/ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH UPDATES/WEST BANK UPDATES/ISRAEL VS IRAN UPDATES//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE INJURY/MARK CRISPIN MILLLER/PAUL ALEXANDER/SLAY NEWS//ECONOMIC PAPER BY NEWT GINGRICH//SWAMP NEWS FOR YOU TODAY/
The defense of $2300 gold is now upon us and surpassed. Next up $2400 gold//Silver’s next line is $28.42. Then $34.76
Bitcoin morning price:$61,768 UP 635 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $63,231 UP 2098 dollars
Platinum price closing DOWN $1.50 TO $943.60
Palladium price; UP $0.35 AT $1029.20
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 48 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD
SHANGHAI GOLD…
…from the CME….
“As of Monday, April 1, 2024, CME Group settlement data is no longer accessible through ftp.cmegroup.com and has a delayed publication time of 12:00 a.m. CT on all cmegroup.com web pages. Learn about alternate ways to access the data in our FAQ.”
Now I retrieve the data after 1 am
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros
4: 15 PM ACCESS
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3278.75 UP 14.00 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,301.52 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//APRIL 16 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1912,39 UP 7,10 pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1921.50 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 16/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2234.58 UP 13.00euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2248.89 EUROS PER OZ//APRIL 16.2024)
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363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 1 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 4 737 C ADVANTAGE 2 905 C ADM 4 991 H CME 1
TOTAL: 6 6 MONTH TO DATE: 15,989
JPMORGAN STOPPED (RECEIVED) 0/6 CONTRACTS
FOR APRIL/2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2024. CONTRACT: 6 NOTICES FOR 600 OZ or 0.0186 TONNES
total notices so far: 15,989 contracts for 1,598,900 Oz (49.32 tonnes)
FOR APRIL:
SILVER NOTICES: 43 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 215,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1625 for 8,125,000 oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $11.30
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ :
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.59 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.59 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS AT THE SLV// (THIS MAKES LOTS OF SENSE!)
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3,977 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/
// INVENTORY LOWERS T0 422.227 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 422.227 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 462 CONTRACTS TO 176,266 AND STILL RAPIDLY CLOSING IN ON THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $.10 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION WITH AGAIN PANICKING SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE SMALL PRICE GAIN. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 604 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 604 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.10), AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 1921 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE RISE IN PRICE OF $0.10.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A MEGA HUGE SIZED 1439 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 2.465 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON //NEW STANDING 8.180 MILLION OZ//
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 8.180 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 604 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED A STRONG XXX CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 14 days, total 20,137 contracts: OR 100.685 MILLION OZ (1438 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 100.685 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 100.685 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS)
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 462 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAININ PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1439 ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL. OF 2.465 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAYS’ 195,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING RISES TO 8.180 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 1921 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 604 CONTRACTS,//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (604) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 43 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 215,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1730 OI CONTRACTS TO 515,443 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 1175 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (555 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR STRONG $17.60 LOSS IN PRICE//WEDNESDAY. THE BANKERS WERE FORCED TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO CONTAIN GOLD’S RISE. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL. AT 44.8615 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MEGA HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 295,703 OZ.(0.7713 TONNES)
NEW STANDING 50.030 TONNES// ALL OF THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR $17.60 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF OI CONTRACTS (2.051 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 2171CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 515,443
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 441 CONTRACTS WITH 1734 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A GOOD SIZED 2171 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 441 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED 984 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2171 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI (1730) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 441 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 44.8615 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.7713 TONNES QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING 50.030 TONNES.
/ 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE.
// 4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS/ 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 954CONTRACTS/ HUGE SHORT COVERING BY OUR WRONG FOOTED SPECS WITH THE FED’S CONTINUAL RAID ON THE COMEX GOLD.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
APRIL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 53,439 CONTRACTS OR 5,343,900OZ OR 166.217 TONNES IN 14TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3817 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 14TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 166.217 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 166.217/3550 x 100% TONNES 4.67% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 166.217 TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 441 CONTRACTS OI TO 177,000 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1439 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 1439 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1439 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1216 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1439 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1921CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 9.605 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.84 PTS OR 0.09% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 134.03 PTS OR 0.82% / Nikkei CLOSED UP 117.90 PTS OR 0.31% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.48%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.2390//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.2384 /Oil DOWN TO 81.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 86.09/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR 1730 CONTRACTS TO 515,463 DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $17.60 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY TRADING. WE HAD FAIR T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AS WELL AS SHORTS ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO GET OUT OF THEIR NAKED SHORTS.THE VOLUME ON THE COMEX YESTERDAY WAS ESTIMATED AT A VERY STRONG 295,703.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2171 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 2171 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2171CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1616 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2171 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR LOSS OF 1730 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE FALL IN PRICE OF $17.60 WEDNESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A SMALL SIZED 954 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS ON WEDNESDAY WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (50.030 TONNES) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 50.030 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $17.60 //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 441 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE 0F $17.60.
WE HAD A FAIR T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF TUESDAY’S TRADING ALONG. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 2.051 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL. (44.8615 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MAMMOTH QUEUE JUMP OF 295,763 OZ (0.7713 TONNES)//NEW STANDING; 50.030 TONNES
NEW STANDING: 50.030 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $17.60
WE HAD REMOVED 1175 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 441 CONTRACTS OR 44100 (2.051 TONNES)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
15,989 notices 1,598,900 oz 49.732 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 0
NIL
total customer withdrawal: NILoz
we had total deposit NIL oz
NIL
Adjustments: 1
i) out of jpm: dealer to customer: 9645,300 oz 300 KILOBARS
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL.
For the front month of APRIL we have an oi of 101 contracts having LOST 52 contracts. We had 300 contracts served on WEDNESDAY, so we GAINED 248 contracts or an additional 24800 oz (0.7713 tonnes) will stand at the comex.
MAY GAINED 19 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1838
JUNE DECREASED ITS OI BY 2827 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 414,568 CONTRACTS.
We had 6 contracts filed for today representing 600 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 6 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (15,989 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (101 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today 6 x 100 oz per contract equals 1,608,500 OZ OR 50.030 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL. contract month: No of notices filed so far (15,989) x 100 oz + (101) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (6) x 100 oz which equals 1,608,500 oz (50.030 TONNES) CORRECTED FROM YESTERDAY’S ERROR
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL: 50.030 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,586,130.145 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,521,055.666 (233,93 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,055,429.179 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,901,3405 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 183.55 tonnes/dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
APRIL 18
INITIAL
//2024// THE APRIL 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
991.368 oz DELAWARE
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
No of oz served today (contracts)
43 CONTRACT(S) (215,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
11 contracts (55,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
1625 Contracts (8,125,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit :nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 deposits customer account:
total customer deposits NIL oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 130.383 million oz/292.054 million or 44.86%
adjustment: 1
CUSTOMER TO DEALER MANFRA: 195,036.734 OZ
Comex withdrawals: 1
i) out of Delaware 991.368 oz
total withdrawal 991.368 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 46.863MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 292.055million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2023 OI: 54 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 3 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 42 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED A STRONG 39 CONTRACTS OR ADDITIONAL 195,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX
.
MAY SAW A LOSS OF 4597 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 74,292
JUNE SAW A LOSS OF 59 CONTRACTS FALLING TO 682
JULY SAW A GAIN OF 4863 CONTRACTS UP TO 78,925
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 42 for 210,000 oz
ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR WEDNESDAY: AN ASTRONOMICAL 122,750 CONTRACTS
confirmed Tuesday volume; 122,750
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1625 x 5,000 oz = 8,125,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (54) and the number of notices served upon today 43x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL/2024 contract month: 1625 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL. (54) – number of notices served upon today (43 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month equates to 8.18- MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 8.180 million oz.
There are 46.863 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
APRIL 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 827.59 TONNES
APRIL 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 830;18 TONNES
APRIL 16 WITH GOLD UP $23.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 828.45 TONNES
APRIL 15 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 826.72 TONNES
APRIL 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISESS AT 830.75 TONNES
APRIL 11 WITH GOLD UP $25.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.25 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLSS AT 828.46 TONNES
APRIL 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 828.71 TONNES
APRIL 9 WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 827,85 TONNES
APRIL 8 WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 826.41 TONNES
APRIL 5 WITH GOLD UP $38.65 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 832.45 TONNES
APRIL 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $3.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.73 TONNES
APRIL 3 WITH GOLD UP $33,85 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // INVENTORY REMAINS AT 829.00 TONNES
APRIL 2 WITH GOLD UP $23.90 TODAY; HUG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITH DRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 829.00 TONNES
APRIL 1 WITH GOLD UP $18.70 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 28 WITH GOLD UP $26.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 27 WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY FALLS TO 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 26 WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 835.33 TONNES
MARCH 25 WITH GOLD UP $17.05 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 838.50 TONNES
MARCH 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.75 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 838.50 TONNES
MARCH 21 WITH GOLD UP $24.80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:INVENTORY RISES TO 838.50 TONNES
MARCH 20 WITH GOLD UP $1.45 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:INVENTORY RISES TO 837.35 TONNES
MARCH 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A STRONG PAPER DEPOSIT OF 1.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:INVENTORY RISES TO 833.32 TONNES
MARCH 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $5.20 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY REMAINS AT 816.86 TONNES
MARCH 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY REMAINS AT 816.86 TONNES
MARCH 13 WITH GOLD UP $14.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY REMAINS AT 815.13 TONNES
MARCH 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $21.15 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:NOT AVAILABLE///LAST VALUE 815.13 TONNES
MARCH 11 WITH GOLD UP $3.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD AFTER 7 CONSECUTIVE GOLD PRICE RISES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 815.13 TONNES
MARCH 8 WITH GOLD UP $21.05 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD AFTER 7 CONSECUTIVE GOLD PRICE RISES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 816.57 TONNES
MARCH 7 WITH GOLD UP $7.20 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4,20 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 817.44 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 827.59 TONNES,
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $.04
TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.977 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF .868 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 426/204 MILLION OZ
APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF NON EXISTENT SILVER// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.072 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15/WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.069 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.23 TODAY: STRANGE INDEED! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.931 MILLION OZ :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.998 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10/WITH SILVER UP $0.04 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP $0.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.549 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.33 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.320 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.328 MILLION OZ
APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP $0.61 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.748 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 4/WITH SILVER UP $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.671 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.312 MILLION OZ
APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.14 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.835 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.641 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 84 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 6.721 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.806 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.085 MILLION OZ
MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.085 MILLION OZ
MARCH 27/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A A DEPOSIT OF 1.691 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.079 MILLION OZ
MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A A DEPOSIT OF 0.366 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 421.388 MILLION OZ
MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.887 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 421.022 MILLION OZ
MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.1899 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.909 MILLION OZ
MARCH 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.560 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.720 MILLION OZ
MARCH 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 11.792 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.280 MILLION OZ
MARCH 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 11.792 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.280 MILLION OZ
MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.006 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 417.866 MILLION OZ
MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.872 MILLION OZ
MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 32 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.872 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 31 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.549 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.872 MILLION OZ…
MARCH 11/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.147 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.323 MILLION OZ…SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD!
MARCH 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.299 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 420.519 MILLION OZ…SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD!
MARCH 7/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.665 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.818 MILLION OZ…SUCH A MASSIVE FRAUD!
MARCH 6/WITH SILVER UP 52 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.378 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427,105 MILLION OZ
MARCH 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.499 MILL;ION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.483 MILLION OZ
MARCH 4/WITH SILVER UP CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.982 MILLION OZ
MARCH 1/WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: // : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.982 MILLION OZ
FEB 29/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430/982 MILLION OZ
FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.123 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.086 MILLION OZ
FEB 27/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.64 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.943 MILLION OZ
FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.065 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.603 MILLION OZ
FEB 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 44 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.065 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.603 MILLION OZ
FEB 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV
// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.766 MILLION OZ
FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 28 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.348 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 432.766 MILLION OZ
FEB 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.385 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 435.008 MILLION OZ
FEB 16/WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.235 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.393 MILLION OZ
FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 56 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 14/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV : SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 60 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 0.504 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.615 MILLION OZ
FEB 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.921 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 438.119 MILLION OZ
FEB 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 600,000 OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 440.040 MILLION OZ
FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS TODAY NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ
FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS TODAY HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.04 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 439.994 MILLION OZ//LAST 9 DAYS: 10.7598 MILLION OZ WITHDRAWAL
CLOSING INVENTORY 422.227 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFFGOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
END
2.Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens/…
So-called artificial intelligence (AI) is taking the world by storm. Meanwhile, gold has shot up like a rocket over the past couple of months.
In mid-February, gold was trading at $1,990. Two months later, gold is trading above $2,400 — a $410 gain in just two months.
So here’s a question:
Is there a connection between AI and gold?
It seems like an odd question.
But as it turns out, the answer is yes. And surprisingly, there has been for decades. It involves the Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union.
In the early 1980s, the KGB was deeply concerned about the possibility of a nuclear first strike by the United States. At the time, Yuri Andropov was head of the KGB.
Andropov’s fear of a nuclear first strike by the U.S. was based in part on the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan and Reagan’s plan to install Pershing II intermediate-range missiles in Europe.
Those missiles could be armed with nuclear warheads and could strike the Soviet Union within minutes of being launched. This put Soviet nuclear forces on a hair-trigger alert. They adopted a “launch on warning” posture.
This means that as soon as credible evidence of a planned first strike was discovered, the Soviet Union would launch its own first strike to avoid destruction of its forces.
The irony was that the U.S. had no actual plans to launch a first strike, but the Soviet Union didn’t know that. Reagan’s speeches about the “evil empire” did nothing to calm Soviet concerns.
AI and Nuclear Readiness
In response, the Soviets developed a primitive (by today’s standards) AI system called VRYAN. That’s a Russian acronym for: sudden nuclear missile attack.
VRYAN took about 40,000 military, economic and political inputs and computed the relative strength of the Soviet Union compared with the United States expressed as a percentage output. The model used a value of 100% for equivalence of the USSR to the U.S.
The Soviet leadership was comfortable that the U.S. would not launch a nuclear first strike if the USSR could maintain a value of 60%, although they viewed 70% as providing a more comfortable margin.
A VRYAN output of 40% was considered the critical threshold at which the U.S. might feel it could launch a first strike with acceptable risk that the Soviets would not be able to mount a successful second strike.
VRYAN output values were in steady decline in the dangerous period from 1981–1984 (in 1984, the VRYAN output had declined to 45%).
The VRYAN AI system relied on by the KGB and the Soviet Politburo was an important factor in the Soviet decision in 1981 to vastly increase intelligence collections aimed at detecting U.S. preparations for a first strike.
Close Call
This intelligence collection effort was complicated to the point of extreme danger by the fact that the U.S. and NATO were conducting a war game in late 1983, code-named Able Archer 83. This war game was to practice a nuclear strike on the Soviet Union.
It turned out that the U.S. was rehearsing a nuclear first strike at the same exact time that the KGB was looking for evidence of a nuclear first strike. Able Archer 83 provided the KGB with more than enough reason to suspect the U.S. was indeed preparing for a first strike under cover of a war game.
VRYAN’s AI output on relative U.S. strength was compounded by massive U.S. intelligence failures regarding Soviet intentions. U.S. intelligence analysts assumed that the future would resemble the past, and that Soviet alerts were really propaganda designed to halt the U.S. deployment of Pershing II intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe.
U.S. intelligence analysts were also guilty of what’s called mirror imaging: the belief that because you know your own intentions, your opponents must share your view. In this case, the U.S. assumed that because they had no intention to launch a first strike, the Soviets must have understood that intention and would therefore have no cause for concern.
In fact, the Soviets had the opposite view based in part on VRYAN AI output.
The world came extremely close to World War III and a nuclear holocaust as a result of this sequence of events and misperception of intentions. It was only when one U.S. general decided not to escalate in the face of Soviet first strike preparations that both sides deescalated, and the crisis eventually receded.
The information above wasn’t fully understood by either side at the time of the escalation. On the U.S. side, it wasn’t until the 1990 publication of a study entitled The Soviet War Scare by the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB) that something like the full story was revealed.
Nuclear War Threats: Good For Gold
This study was originally classified above TOP SECRET. Most citizens assume that TOP SECRET is the highest level of classification. But there are secret access codes that limit circulation of certain documents even among those cleared with TOP SECRET access.
In the case of The Soviet War Scare, those restrictions had the code names UMBRA, GAMMA, ININTEL, NOFORN, NOCONTRACT, ORCON. I can’t discuss my own TOP SECRET clearances, but I can inform you that very few intelligence operatives would have been able to view the PFIAB report based on those restrictions.
So what does all this have to do with gold?
Buried inside The Soviet War Scare was this passage about the U.S. assessment of KGB collection requirements related to a potential nuclear war:
VRYAN Collection Requirements – Throughout the early 1980s, VRYAN requirements were the No. 1 (and urgent) collection priority for Soviet intelligence… They were tasked to collect:… monitoring of the flow of money and gold on Wall Street as well as the movement of high-grade jewelry, collections of rare paintings and similar items. (This was regarded as useful geostrategic information.) (Emphasis added)
And there it is! The U.S. assessed that the KGB tracked the movement of gold as a leading indicator of nuclear attack.
I didn’t find this completely surprising. From 2004–2010, I was co-director of a CIA effort called Project Prophesy that looked at capital markets activity as an early warning of an enemy attack.
Gold was one of the valuable assets that was on our list of items to track. The idea was that if a general or political leader had advance information about an attack, they’d convert their wealth to gold in safekeeping in order to financially survive the fallout.
The bottom line is that this intelligence reporting and AI system are not ancient history. Today, the world is closer to nuclear war than at any time since the Able Archer scare in 1983. Gold is once again on the move, having risen from $1,830 per ounce on Oct. 5, 2023, to over $2,400 today. That’s a 31% gain in six months.
Is this a coincidence? Hardly. A close correlation of huge gains in gold with serious threats of nuclear war is exactly what one should expect.
Unfortunately, those threats of nuclear war are not going away soon. One need only look at the Iranian attack on Israel this past weekend and the possibilities of further escalation.
There are also situations in Ukraine, Russia, NATO, Gaza, the Red Sea and the Suez Canal revealing that the world is a more dangerous place than it has been for decades.
That’s bad news for the world but good news for gold investors. The rally we’ve seen in the past six months is just getting started.
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//
4. OTHER MAJOR GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES/TIN
(ZEROHEDDGE)
Forget Cocoa, Coffee. There’s A “Squeeze Risk” Building In The Tin Market
WEDNESDAY, APR 17, 2024 – 10:40 PM
Tin prices on the London Metal Exchange have surged 27% this year, landing on the radars of some institutional desks. Other commodities closely monitored by hedge funds include cocoa, coffee, Brent crude, copper, and gold.
Bloomberg notes that LME data for the tin market shows the aggregate net-long position held by financial investors surged to the highest level ever, with data going back to 2018.
These bullish bets have pushed tin prices well into the $32,000 handle in recent trading sessions.
Bloomberg notes that the “big bull” positioning by institutional investors comes as major supply disruptions hit top producers across Indonesia, Myanmar, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Also, the metal, a critical component of modern technology and used primarily as solder to connect electrical components and semiconductor chips, is the latest AI trade investors have been piling into.
“Every data byte and every electron travels through hundreds of solder joints that connect it all together,” Jeremy Pearce, head of market intelligence and communications at the International Tin Association, said in an email interview with the media outlet. He pointed out that tin’s trade thesis is that demand will rise in tandem with AI computing demand at data centers. Recall our note, “The Next AI Trade.”
Like Nickel and other commodities, tin is prone to mega short squeezes. Traders discovered this in 2022 after a once-in-a-generation squeeze broke the nickel trading on LME.
“Some market participants feel there could be a risk of a squeeze,” Ding Wenqiang, senior analyst at one of China’s largest metal researchers, Mysteel.com, told Bloomberg. He added, “They are paying close attention to the movements of the big bull in the May contract.”
Tightening supplies come as tin inventories plunged 47% so far this year to 4,045 tons. The metal’s spot price trades at a premium versus the three-month futures contract, producing a structure known as backwardation.
Nickel prices are rising as commodity prices have likely based and entered a ‘weak bull’ market, according to new research from HSBC Bank.
Rising commodity prices are more bad news for Fed chair Powell’s fight against the inflation monster.
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSTHURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 7.2390
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2840
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.84 PTS OR 0.09%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 134,03 PTS OR 0.82%
2. Nikkei closed UP 117.90 OR 0.31%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 105.71 EURO RISES TO 1.0675 UP 6 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.857 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 154.45/JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN:UP/ OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.4595***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.854* /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.285…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.390
3j Gold at $2381.20 silver at: 28.45 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 22 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 94.05//
3m oil into the 81 dollar handle for WTI and 86 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 154.45// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.857% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9086 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9699 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.579 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.693 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.928 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.51…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 8 BASIS PTS AT 4.278
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge
Futures Rise After 4 Straight Days Of Losses
THURSDAY, APR 18, 2024 – 08:16 AM
US equity futures are higher after four consecutive days of selling, although that is the same pattern we have seen all week as futures initially rise only to dump later in the day. As of 7:40am, S&P futures are up 0.3% while tech stocks were set to outperform, pushing the Nasdaq 0.4% higher after TSMC delivered a better-than-projected revenue outlook. An index of global chip stocks and AI poster child Nvidia fell into a technical correction amid the recent selloff, with Evercore ISI analyst Julian Emanuel thinking this is only the start, with the downdraft in stocks only starting and set to continue through the rest of 2024. The dollar steadied, while US Treasuries pared an earlier gain to trade flat. In Europe, major markets are higher with Spain/France leading and Germany lagging. Commodities are mixed: oil is falling further; precious and base metals are higher. Reports from Netflix and L’Oreal are due after the close of their respective markets. Investors will also be parsing initial US jobless data, the latest Leading Index and Existing Home Sales data, as well as speakers from a raft of central banks.
In premarket trading, semis are rebounding from yesterday’s post ASML selloff (MD +1.0%, NVDA +1.4% and MU +2.5%) after Taiwan’s TSMC, the main chipmaker for Nvidia and Apple, reported sales guidance that was better than expected and it stuck by plans to spend up to $32 billion over the course of this year, shoring up expectations for a sustained increase in AI demand. Also on the chip sector front, Micron Technology shares are up 1.5% in premarket trading after Bloomberg reported that the largest maker of US computer memory-chips is poised to get more than $6 billion in grants from the Commerce Department to help pay for domestic factory projects. MegaCap Tech are also mostly higher: AAPL +32bp and AMZN +23bp. Here are the other notable premarket movers:
Blackstone Inc. collected more fees from big retail funds and credit strategies this year, compensating for the slower pace of deal exits, the asset manager said in its first-quarter report.
EBay shares rise 3.5% after Morgan Stanley double-upgrades the e-commerce firm to overweight from underweight. Analysts recommend a pair trade with Etsy on the prospect of a narrowing valuation gap as eBay approaches positive growth thanks to a boost from AI.
Etsy shares fall 3.7% as Morgan Stanley cuts Etsy to underweight.
JetBlue shares advance 1.6% after the airline was upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan, which sees the company as “increasingly well-positioned for a modest potential move to the upside based on improving market sentiment.”
Las Vegas Sands decline 2.5% after reporting first quarter results late Wednesday. The casino operator exceeded adjusted profit expectations in the quarter, but results at its Macau locations broadly missed Wall Street’s estimates.
Match Group shares slip 2.3% after the dating-app company was downgraded to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley, which flags concerns over Tinder saturation and execution.
Synovus Financial shares trade 7.7% lower after first-quarter net interest income missed the average analyst estimate.
Williams Cos. shares edge 0.7% lower on low volumes as the natural gas pipeline and processing firm receives its only sell-equivalent rating. Wolfe downgrades to underperform from peerperform saying it is a “great company, not a great value.”
Zscaler shares rise 2.4% as KeyBanc Capital Markets raised the recommendation on the security software firm’s stock to overweight from sector weight.
In the last week, investors have been unwinding gains from a record rally in the first quarter as they come to grips with an overlever, overheating US economy and stubborn inflation that’s forced them to recalibrate rate bets. Money markets signal just two rate cuts by the Fed this year, starting in September, down from 7 at the start of the year, after a fresh round of hot inflation sent Treasury yields soaring to 2024 highs. Offsetting disappointment about the speed of rate cuts, though, investors are more optimistic about growth and the potential feedthrough to corporate profits, according to Peter Oppenheimer, global equity strategy chief at Goldman Sachs.
“Growth is fine, but we’re not likely to get the boost in terms of lower rates that the markets had expected,” Oppenheimer said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “That’s causing some indigestion, so earnings will really be crucial here.”
Overnight, Loretta Mester became the latest Fed official to warn it shouldn’t rush to cut rates. Meanwhile, Michelle Bowman said progress on inflation may have stalled and questioned the degree to which monetary policy is restraining the economy.
Elsewhere, Joe Biden ramped up his campaign rhetoric, calling China “xenophobic” and highlighting its economic woes, as he sought to make the case for US economic strength.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises 0.4% as investors weighed a slate of upbeat corporate earnings reports against concerns around higher-for-longer interest rates. The utilities sub-index leads gains while energy stocks fall the most. In company news, engineering company ABB hit another record high after it posted strong first-quarter earnings. Here are some of the biggest European movers Thursday:
ABB (ABBN SE +5.2%) jumps after posting an overall 1Q beat, according to analysts, driven primarily by its electrification unit performance
Aixtron (AIXA GY +6.1%) climbs after the German chip equipment maker said that Wolfspeed placed multiple tool orders in 3Q and 4Q last year
Edenred (EDEN FP +3.8%) rises following its first-quarter results, which Citi says are a “step in the right direction” for the payment-service provider
Tele2 (TEL2B SS +5.1%) advances after it beat estimates to 1Q Ebitda, driven by strong performance in its key Swedish market, as well as “decent” growth in the Baltics
Nordea Bank (NDA FH +0.4%) rises after reporting record profits and net interest income in the first quarter on the back of an enduring tailwind from interest rates
National Grid (NG/ LN +1.6%) gains after it said a change in the way it reports earnings will boost EPS over the current financial year. Analyst reactions were mixed
Sartorius (DIM FP -14%) plunges after the company reported revenue for the first quarter that missed the average analyst estimates
EQT (EQT SS -5.1%) falls with analysts saying that the Swedish private equity firm’s quarterly print is showing continued slowness in fundraising
Schindler (SCHP SE -0.4%) drops after the elevator maker reported revenue shy of expectations, according to Vontobel
International Distributions Services (IDS LN -3.9%) falls, trimming some gains from Wednesday’s rally that followed news of a rejected takeover bid from Czech entrepreneur Daniel Kretinsky’s firm
Rentokil (RTO LN -2.8%) drops after the pest control company delivered 1Q in-line results. Investors remain cautious about the integration of the Terminix acquisition, Citi says
Earlier in the session, Asia’s stock benchmark rebounded after a six-day selloff, as sentiment stabilized with the region’s currencies regaining some footing. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.1% but pared the gain to 0.6%, set for its best day since April 9. Tencent, Samsung Electronics and BHP Group were among the biggest contributors to the advance. Chip stocks were in focus as TSMC delivered a better-than-projected revenue outlook and stuck with plans to spend as much as $32 billion in 2024. Shares in Hong Kong were among the region’s best performers. Benchmarks in mainland China extended their advance to the second day following a clarification from the country’s securities regulator over delisting rules.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the positive mood but with upside capped in the mainland by US-China trade frictions after President Biden called for an increase in tariffs on Chinese metals.
Nikkei 225 recovered all of its opening losses and returned to above the 38,000 level.
ASX 200 was led by the mining industry after BHP’s encouraging quarterly production update.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1%, falling for a second day. The dollar has jumped about 4% this year, outperforming all major currencies, as reduced prospects for Fed rate cuts feed greenback strength and higher US yields. Separately, the Bloomberg Asia Dollar Index edged higher, supporting investor appetite toward the region. The yen was steady following a joint statement from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen alongside the finance ministers of Japan and South Korea that noted “serious concerns” about the depreciation of the two Asian currencies. A global gauge of emerging-market currencies gained for a second day, suggesting some stability after hitting a 2024 low earlier this week.
In rates, treasuries erased an earlier gain US 10-year yields unchanged at 4.58%, near Wednesday’s low, trailing gilts by 1.5bp in the sector; curve spreads remain within 1bp of Wednesday’s close, inverted 2s10s around -35bp. Gilts outperform their German counterparts. $23b 5-year TIPS sale at 1pm New York time is week’s final coupon auction.
In commodities, oil prices added to Wednesday’s drop, with WTI down another 0.6% to trade near $82 a barrel, weighed by weaker Chinese industrial data and a swelling in US crude inventories, while gold rose. Spot gold rises 0.8% to around $2,379/oz.
Bitcoin was back above $62k after briefly dipping below $60k yesterday, while Ethereum finds support around $3k. Binance converted the entire pool of assets held in an emergency fund for users into USDC stablecoin. The fund serves as a backstop for customers in “extreme situations”, according to Bloomberg.
Looking at today’s calendar, US session includes weekly jobless claims data, a packed Fed speaker slate and 5-year TIPS new-issue auction. US economic data slate includes April Philadelphia Fed business outlook and weekly jobless claims (8:30am), March Leading index and existing home sales (10am). Fed speakers include Bowman (9:05am, 9:15am), Williams (9:15am), Bostic (11am, 5:45pm) and Collins (12pm)
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 5,076.50
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 500.26
MXAP up 0.8% to 170.64
MXAPJ up 0.9% to 524.05
Nikkei up 0.3% to 38,079.70
Topix up 0.5% to 2,677.45
Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 16,385.87
Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,074.23
Sensex little changed at 72,888.80
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 7,642.11
Kospi up 2.0% to 2,634.70
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.44%
Euro little changed at $1.0676
Brent Futures down 0.3% to $86.99/bbl
Gold spot up 0.8% to $2,379.19
US Dollar Index little changed at 105.86
Top Overnight News
BOJ board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday the pace of future rate hikes would likely be much slower than that of its global peers in recent policy tightenings, as the impact of rising domestic wages has yet be fully passed onto prices. RTRS
A US congressional effort to force TikTok’s Chinese owner to divest the app has gained steam after House Speaker Mike Johnson unveiled a new package of legislation that could compel the Senate to support the measure. FT
Berkshire Hathaway priced ¥263.3 billion ($1.71 billion) of bonds in the firm’s largest yen debt deal since its 2019 debut sale. The surprisingly big offering raises speculation that Warren Buffett may be planning another foray into Japanese stocks. BBG
TSMC’s rebound accelerated, with “extremely high” AI demand bolstering its outlook. The chipmaker expects revenue to grow as much as 30% this quarter following its first profit rise in a year. Chip stocks may see some relief on the results. Nvidia ticked up premarket, as did ASML’s stock. BBG
European diplomats traveled to Israel on Wednesday to make one more plea for restraint in response to the aerial attack that Iran launched this weekend, but Britain’s foreign secretary acknowledged that an Israeli reprisal seemed inevitable. NYT
Fed’s Mester says the central bank will require additional time before deciding when to commence rate cuts, but she expressed confidence in the disinflationary process eventually resuming. Barron’s
Corporate pension funds are shifting money into bonds. State and local government funds are swapping stocks for alternative investments. The nation’s largest public pension, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, is planning to move close to $25 billion out of equities and into private equity and private debt. WSJ
The Biden administration said Wednesday it would allow some American and European oil companies to carry on in Venezuela after U.S. efforts to coax President Nicolás Maduro into democratic overhauls by lifting economic sanctions ended in a hardening of his authoritarian regime. WSJ
Cash paid out from PE funds has tumbled to a decade low, leaving investors less able, or willing, to allocate new money. As a result, the biggest backers want buyout executives to put in more of their own assets, prompting them to load up on debt and pledge personal possessions — including their homes. BBG
Iran is exporting more oil than at any time for the past six years, giving its economy a $35bn-a-year boost even as western countries discuss stepping up sanctions in response to its attack on Israel. Tehran sold an average of 1.56mn barrels a day during the first three months of the year, almost all of it to China and its highest level since the third quarter of 2018. FT
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mostly higher after gradually shrugging off headwinds from the tech-led selling in the US. ASX 200 was led by the mining industry after BHP’s encouraging quarterly production update. Nikkei 225 recovered all of its opening losses and returned to above the 38,000 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the positive mood but with upside capped in the mainland by US-China trade frictions after President Biden called for an increase in tariffs on Chinese metals.
Top Asian News
PBoC Governor Pan met with Fed Chair Powell and they exchanged views on the economic situation, monetary policy and financial stability, while Pan also met with IMF’s Georgieva in Washington and exchanged views on cooperation between China and the IMF.
PBoC Deputy Governor says there is still room for monetary policy going forward.
US President Biden commented there is no trade war when asked about the proposed China metals tariffs, while he also commented that he wants fair competition, not conflict, with China.
US Secretary of State Blinken is travelling to China on April 23rd, according to Politico.
BoJ Board Member Noguchi said it is essential for the BoJ to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy and it is essential to continue to maintain an appropriate balance between labour supply and demand through the continuation of its accommodative monetary policy to achieve the 2% price target. Noguchi said it will take a significant amount of time until trend inflation continues to rise to around 2%, while the focus now is on the pace at which the policy rate will be adjusted and at what level it will eventually stabilise.
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki held a bilateral meeting with US Treasury Secretary Yellen and agreed to communicate closely on FX, while Suzuki said he wants to closely consult with the US and South Korea on FX.
Japanese Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Kanda said Japan is always communicating with the US and each country’s authorities on Japan’s stance on FX and financial markets.
PBoC official says high real interest rates in some sectors may help control capacity and reduce inventories.
European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.3%) are mostly, but modestly firmer. Initially futures were lifted following strong TSMC results/guidance, though equities have tilted slightly lower in recent trade. European sectors are mixed, having initially held a positive tilt; Energy underperforms, given the slump in oil prices following bearish crude inventory data and geopolitical updates. Utilities is found at the top of the pile. US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.2%, RTY +0.1%) are incrementally firmer, though ultimately resides around the unchanged mark; TSMC (-2.2%) beat on Q1 expectations and notes of strong AI demand, name was initially firmer in the pre-market but has since trimmed markedly and fallen into the red.
Top European news
ECB’s Schnabel said financial markets repricing of rates over the last few months shows investors expect policymakers, at least for now, to continue to pay more attention to actual inflation outcomes.
ECB’s Vasle said he sees the deposit rate ‘much closer’ to 3% by year-end if disinflation goes to plan, according to Reuters.
ECB’s de Guindos says inflation has fallen further this year, expected to continue declining in the medium term but the pace will be slower. If inflation conditions are met, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of restrictions.
FX
USD is softer vs. all major peers with the DXY back on a 105 handle after printing a 106.51 high earlier in the week.
EUR/USD has continued its recovery after printing a base around the 1.06 mark earlier in the week. That being said, policy divergences remain wide between the Fed and ECB, therefore, focus amongst strategists is on whether the pair can hold above 1.05.
GBP is attempting to claw back some losses vs. the USD but Cable hasn’t been able to reclaim a 1.25 handle throughout the week.
Antipodeans are both firmer vs. the USD following a pick-up in sentiment in APAC hours and firm trade in base metals. AUD/USD saw little sustained follow-through from Aus. jobs as the unexpected contraction in employment was driven by part-time jobs.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1020 vs exp. 7.2281 (prev. 7.1025).
Fixed Income
USTs are bid, but only modestly so with newsflow somewhat limited thus far ahead of IJC & Fed speak. Positive undertones continue from the strong 20yr sale on Wednesday; USTs around their 108-10+ peak, surpassing Tuesday’s 108-08 best.
Bunds are also firmer and closer to USTs than Gilts in terms of the magnitude of gains thus far. Holding just off the 131.87 peak around Wednesday’s 131.67 best.
Gilts are outperforming but largely a function of catch-up play to the strong 20yr US sale, yesterday’s Bailey remarks and the general bullish grind for benchmarks late doors on Tuesday. As it stands, Gilts at a 97.20 peak having picked up markedly from Wednesday’s 96.01 contract low.
France sells EUR 12.417bln vs exp. EUR 11.0-12.5bln 0.00% 2027, 2.50% 2027, 2.75% 2030 & 0.00% 2032 OATs.
Commodities
The crude complex extended on yesterday’s slide, with prices subdued by the lack of Israeli response against Iran coupled with this week’s inventory builds in weekly data. More recent reports meanwhile suggested a potential Israeli strike on Iran after Passover; Brent June looking to test USD 85.50/bbl to the downside.
Precious metals are firmer across the board amid the softer Dollar, with mild outperformance in palladium vs gold and silver; XAU currently sits at the top of USD 2,361.10-2.381.10/oz range.
Base metals are higher trade across the board for base metals with copper reaching a level last seen in June 2022, and iron ore continuing to surge higher. The complex is supported by optimism surrounding China coupled with the intraday fall in the Dollar.
Qatar set June-loading Al-Shaheen crude term premium at USD 2.54/bbl which is the highest in six months.
Chile President Boric said ‘totally clear’ that copper prices are on the upswing, while he added that Codelco copper production levels are going to slowly grow as of this year and reach 1.7mln tons by 2030. Furthermore, the government is dedicated to speeding up the mining permitting process and they hope to double lithium output.
Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry says oil production losses due to floods have amounted to 16k tons; Azerbaijan is in talks to ship up to 5mln tons of Kazakh crude via Baku-Supsa pipeline.
Geopolitics: Middle East
“Multiple reports claiming Netanyahu is postponing counter strike on Iran till after Passover next week”, according to Sky News’ Waghorn “Al Araby al Jadeed claiming he’s promised a more limited retaliation in return for freedom to strike Rafah hard.”
US has reportedly agreed to back an Israeli operation in Rafah in return for Israel not conducting a major strike on Iran, via JNS citing Egyptian officials.
“Israel Broadcasting Corporation: The army is waiting for the green light to start its operations in Rafah, south of Gaza”, according to Al Arabiya.
“Al-Arabiya correspondent: Large movements of Israeli armoured vehicles near the outskirts of the city of Rafah”, according to Al Arabiya.
US Pentagon spokesman said won’t hesitate to defend Israel and will work to protect its forces in the region, while the spokesman added that Defense Secretary Austin made a series of contacts to de-escalate so as not to go to a wider war, according to Al Jazeera.
UK Ministry of Defence insider speaking to Politico says they now expect “strikes back and forth” between Israel and Iran, via Politico
Geopolitics: Other
G7 statement noted significant geo-political risks from Russia’s war against Ukraine and the Middle East situation could affect trade, supply chains and commodity prices, while they welcomed the EU proposal to direct extraordinary revenues from Russia’s frozen assets to aid Ukraine and will continue working on all possible avenues by which frozen Russian assets could be used to support Ukraine. It was also reported that Japan’s top currency diplomat Kanda said the G7 discussion on Iran-related language was a bit complicated and they haven’t yet reached a conclusion on what sanction should be applied.
US Event Calendar
08:30: April Continuing Claims, est. 1.82m, prior 1.82m
08:30: April Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 211,000
08:30: April Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 2.0, prior 3.2
10:00: March Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -4.1%, prior 9.5%
10:00: March Home Resales with Condos, est. 4.2m, prior 4.38m
10:00: March Leading Index, est. -0.1%, prior 0.1%
Central Bank Speakers
09:05: Fed’s Bowman Gives Opening Remarks
09:15: Fed’s Williams Participates in Moderated Discussion
09:15: Fed’s Bowman Speaks at SIFMA Basel III Endgame Roundtable
11:00: Fed’s Bostic Speaks in Fireside Chat on Economy
12:00: Fed’s Collins Travels to Connecticut
17:45: Fed’s Bostic Chats About Economy, Monetary Policy
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I’m struggling at the moment. For the last 2-3 weeks all that I can hear in my head is Beyonce’s latest single (a number one around the world over the last few weeks) which if you haven’t heard is an irritatingly catchy country-style song. In quiet (and busy moments) all I have going on in my mind is a jaunty “It’s a real-life boogie and a real-life hoedown….” with the next line containing parental advisory lyrics so I can’t print! I need something to dislodge it before it drives me crazy and/or infiltrates my research.
Markets have been doing the “Do-si-do” this week as initial recoveries have given way to sell-offs as rates and concerns over events in the Middle East dominate, while weaker tech sentiment was a major driver yesterday as the day progressed. This morning we’ve seen more flipping as Asia is higher again. Before that, yesterday saw the S&P 500 peak at +0.5% near the open but closed -0.58% lower and with it lost ground for a 4th consecutive session, which last happened in early January. Moreover, the index has now shed over 3% over these last four sessions, which is the first time that’s happened since October 23, the same day that the 10yr Treasury yield moved above 5% intraday. To be fair, there was a recovery for bonds, but that was partly a risk-off move into safe havens, which pushed the 10yr Treasury yield (-8.0bps) down from its 5-month high the previous day to 4.59%. Lower oil which we’ll discuss below also helped. Yields are another couple of basis points lower across the curve in Asia.
At the close, the S&P 500 had fallen by -4.42% from its all-time high at the end of March, which is more than double the largest pullback it had seen during its remarkable +27% rally that started in late October. The latest decline yesterday was led by tech stocks, with the NASDAQ down -1.15%, and the Magnificent 7 down -1.23%. Chipmakers in particular underperformed as the producer of chipmaking equipment ASML (-6.68%) reported a sizeable decline in orders in Q1. This saw the Philadelphia semiconductor index (-3.25%) fall to its lowest level in nearly two months, with Nvidia down -3.87% in sympathy. Small-cap stocks were still affected as well though, with the Russell 2000 (-0.99%) falling to a two-month low. T he main exception to this pattern came from Europe, where the STOXX 600 (+0.06%) stabilised after its worst daily performance in nine months. The index did close when the US equity market had only dipped to flat, but Euro STOXX futures have edged back into positive territory this morning after a strong Asia session with S&P (+0.30%) and Nasdaq (+0.43%) futures also rebounding again.
Overnight in Japan, we heard from the BoJ’s currency chief Kanda, who confirmed the central bank’s commitment on the yen. Kanda pushed back against a stronger dollar, stating that excessive currency moves harm the economy. Moreover, US Treasury Secretary Yellen acknowledged Japan’s worries over a sharp yen depreciation in a joint statement with her counterparts in Japan and South Korea after a trilateral meeting that suggested the US would give a green light to intervention in both currencies. The yen stabilised off the back of these comments and is now up +0.07% against the dollar as I type. The offshore Chinese yuan also held steady after the People’s Bank of China emphasised its commitment to preventing exchange rate overshoot in a strong dollar environment. Against this backdrop, Asian equities are mostly in the green. As I type, the Nikkei 225 is up +0.49%, the Hang Seng +1.16%, the Korean Kospi +1.71%, and in China, the CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are up +0.61% and +0.55% respectively. Elsewhere, Australian unemployment came in at 3.8% (vs 3.9% expected), but the downside surprise was largely offset by an otherwise mixed jobs report.
The bond rally we discussed above has been helped by the latest decline in oil prices, with Brent Crude (-3.03%) closing at a 3-week low of $87.29/bbl, which came as the latest EIA report showed US crude inventories at their highest level in 9 months. And in Europe, natural gas futures also fell back after their recent advance, with a decline of -6.43% on the day. So a wild ride in commodities this week.
The decline in oil prices played out even as uncertainty remains over the direction of the conflict in the Middle East. Yesterday, Israeli PM Netanyahu met with UK Foreign Secretary Cameron and German Foreign Minister Baerbock yesterday, but he also said that “I want to make it clear – we will make our own decisions, and the State of Israel will do everything necessary to defend itself.” The comments raised the prospect that some sort of response would still happen, and Cameron said that “It’s right to have made our views clear about what should happen next, but it’s clear the Israelis are making a decision to act”.
Back in Europe, the decline in yields was more modest with yields on 10yr bunds (-2.1bps), gilts (-3.7bps) and OATs (-2.8bps) all seeing moderate dips. The moves were more muted at the front-end, at +0.6bps for 2yr bunds and -1.0bps for 2yr gilts. In part, that reflected continued concerns about sticky inflation following the UK’s latest inflation data, which showed that headline CPI only fell back to +3.2% in March (vs. +3.1% expected), whilst core CPI was also a tenth above expectations at +4.2%.
That led investors to dial back the likelihood of a June rate cut by the Bank of England to less than 25% intra-day from 38% the previous day, though this rose back to 35% in part thanks to fairly dovish comments from Governor Bailey. He noted that with the latest inflation data “we are actually pretty much on track” with what the BoE projected back in February. Our UK Economist Sanjay Raja has pushed back his expectation of the first cut from May to June but still sees an additional 50bps this year split between September and December. The terminal rate of 3% will be hit in H1 2026. See his report here for the full explanation. Meanwhile, there was little change in ECB pricing with ECB commentary continuing to point to a rate cut at the next meeting in June. Bundesbank President Nagel, one of the more hawkish ECB voices, said that “a rate cut in June has become more likely” although “there are still some caveats”.
Finally, the IMF published their latest Fiscal Monitor yesterday, which projected that government debt would continue to rise globally over the years ahead. Their forecasts for general government gross debt saw an increase globally from 93.2% of GDP in 2023 to 98.8% by 2029. For the United States, it saw debt rising from 122.1% in 2023 to 133.9% in 2029.
To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the weekly initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook for April, the Conference Board’s leading index for March, and existing home sales for March. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Nagel, Centeno, Simkus and Vujcic, the Fed’s Bowman, Williams, and Bostic, along with the BoE’s Greene.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Contained trade in equities & FX, TSMC earnings strong and Crude at lows following Israel/Iran reports; US IJC due – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, APR 18, 2024 – 06:23 AM
Equities mostly, but modestly firmer; TSMC beat Q1 expectations, though lower in the pre-market
Dollar slightly lower, G10’s generally flat/firmer with newsflow light
Bonds bid, continuing the upside seen following Wednesday’s auction
Crude is at lows, pressured by Israel/Iran reports; XAU edges higher
Looking ahead, US IJC, Philly Fed, Comments from ECB’s Schnabel, Fed’s Williams, Bowman & Bostic, Earnings from EssilorLuxottica, L’Oreal, Netflix, Elevance Health & Blackstone
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx600 (+0.3%) are mostly, but modestly firmer. Initially futures were lifted following strong TSMC results/guidance, though equities have tilted slightly lower in recent trade.
European sectors are mixed, having initially held a positive tilt; Energy underperforms, given the slump in oil prices following bearish crude inventory data and geopolitical updates. Utilities is found at the top of the pile.
US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.2%, RTY +0.1%) are incrementally firmer, though ultimately resides around the unchanged mark; TSMC (-2.2%) beat on Q1 expectations and notes of strong AI demand, name was initially firmer in the pre-market but has since trimmed markedly and fallen into the red.
Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow, including earnings/updates from: Nokia, easyJet, ABB and more.
USD is softer vs. all major peers with the DXY back on a 105 handle after printing a 106.51 high earlier in the week.
EUR/USD has continued its recovery after printing a base around the 1.06 mark earlier in the week. That being said, policy divergences remain wide between the Fed and ECB, therefore, focus amongst strategists is on whether the pair can hold above 1.05.
GBP is attempting to claw back some losses vs. the USD but Cable hasn’t been able to reclaim a 1.25 handle throughout the week.
Antipodeans are both firmer vs. the USD following a pick-up in sentiment in APAC hours and firm trade in base metals. AUD/USD saw little sustained follow-through from Aus. jobs as the unexpected contraction in employment was driven by part-time jobs.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1020 vs exp. 7.2281 (prev. 7.1025).
USTs are bid, but only modestly so with newsflow somewhat limited thus far ahead of IJC & Fed speak. Positive undertones continue from the strong 20yr sale on Wednesday; USTs around their 108-10+ peak, surpassing Tuesday’s 108-08 best.
Bunds are also firmer and closer to USTs than Gilts in terms of the magnitude of gains thus far. Holding just off the 131.87 peak around Wednesday’s 131.67 best.
Gilts are outperforming but largely a function of catch-up play to the strong 20yr US sale, yesterday’s Bailey remarks and the general bullish grind for benchmarks late doors on Tuesday. As it stands, Gilts at a 97.20 peak having picked up markedly from Wednesday’s 96.01 contract low.
The crude complex extended on yesterday’s slide, with prices subdued by the lack of Israeli response against Iran coupled with this week’s inventory builds in weekly data. More recent reports meanwhile suggested a potential Israeli strike on Iran after Passover; Brent June looking to test USD 85.50/bbl to the downside.
Precious metals are firmer across the board amid the softer Dollar, with mild outperformance in palladium vs gold and silver; XAU currently sits at the top of USD 2,361.10-2.381.10/oz range.
Base metals are higher trade across the board for base metals with copper reaching a level last seen in June 2022, and iron ore continuing to surge higher. The complex is supported by optimism surrounding China coupled with the intraday fall in the Dollar.
Qatar set June-loading Al-Shaheen crude term premium at USD 2.54/bbl which is the highest in six months.
Chile President Boric said ‘totally clear’ that copper prices are on the upswing, while he added that Codelco copper production levels are going to slowly grow as of this year and reach 1.7mln tons by 2030. Furthermore, the government is dedicated to speeding up the mining permitting process and they hope to double lithium output.
Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry says oil production losses due to floods have amounted to 16k tons; Azerbaijan is in talks to ship up to 5mln tons of Kazakh crude via Baku-Supsa pipeline.
ECB’s Schnabel said financial markets repricing of rates over the last few months shows investors expect policymakers, at least for now, to continue to pay more attention to actual inflation outcomes.
ECB’s Vasle said he sees the deposit rate ‘much closer’ to 3% by year-end if disinflation goes to plan, according to Reuters.
ECB’s de Guindos says inflation has fallen further this year, expected to continue declining in the medium term but the pace will be slower. If inflation conditions are met, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of restrictions.
DATA RECAP
EU Current Account NSA,EUR (Feb) 31.64B (Prev. 24.87B)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Fed’s Bowman (voter) said progress on inflation has slowed and perhaps stalled, while she added that economic conditions are strong and strength of consumer spending is tied to jobs growth. Bowman also commented that current monetary policy is restrictive and time will tell if it is sufficiently restrictive.
Fed’s Mester (voter) said they want to get more information before they can say inflation is on a sustainable path to 2% and inflation is a little higher than expected this year, while they want to be pretty confident inflation is on this downward trajectory and she still expects inflation to come down. Mester said monetary policy is well-positioned and they could keep rates where they are for longer if inflation isn’t moving down to 2% but added they could lower rates if labour markets deteriorate. Furthermore, she said that at some point, they will start to ease policy but don’t have to ease policy in a hurry.
US Senate Majority Leader Schumer said he wants to get foreign aid and supplemental bills done as quickly as possible but needs to read the bill text first.
EARNINGS
TSMC (2330 TW) Q1 (TWD) Net 225bln (exp. 213bln), CapEx USD 5.77bln (prev. 5.24bln Q/Q), Gross Margin 53.1% (exp. 53%). Q2 Guidance: Revenue 19.6-20.4 (exp. 19.2bln, prev. 15.68bln Y/Y), Gross Margin 51-53% (Q1 53.1%), Operating Margin 40-42% (Q1 42%), Expects higher power costs; H2 business will be stronger than H1. Click here for more. Adds, demand for AI is “very, very strong”. Still not able to meet customer demand for AI. Shares -2.2% in pre-market trade
Nokia (NOKIA FH) Q1 (EUR) EPS 0.09 (exp. 0.07), sales 4.67bln (exp. 5.00bln). Notes that the environment is still challenging but order trends continue to improve. (Newswires)
Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK) Q1 2024 (USD): EPS -0.92 (exp. -1.05), Revenue 2.23bln (exp. 2.19bln)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
“Multiple reports claiming Netanyahu is postponing counter strike on Iran till after Passover next week”, according to Sky News’ Waghorn “Al Araby al Jadeed claiming he’s promised a more limited retaliation in return for freedom to strike Rafah hard.”
US has reportedly agreed to back an Israeli operation in Rafah in return for Israel not conducting a major strike on Iran, via JNS citing Egyptian officials.
“Israel Broadcasting Corporation: The army is waiting for the green light to start its operations in Rafah, south of Gaza”, according to Al Arabiya.
“Al-Arabiya correspondent: Large movements of Israeli armoured vehicles near the outskirts of the city of Rafah”, according to Al Arabiya.
US Pentagon spokesman said won’t hesitate to defend Israel and will work to protect its forces in the region, while the spokesman added that Defense Secretary Austin made a series of contacts to de-escalate so as not to go to a wider war, according to Al Jazeera.
UK Ministry of Defence insider speaking to Politico says they now expect “strikes back and forth” between Israel and Iran, via Politico
OTHER
G7 statement noted significant geo-political risks from Russia’s war against Ukraine and the Middle East situation could affect trade, supply chains and commodity prices, while they welcomed the EU proposal to direct extraordinary revenues from Russia’s frozen assets to aid Ukraine and will continue working on all possible avenues by which frozen Russian assets could be used to support Ukraine. It was also reported that Japan’s top currency diplomat Kanda said the G7 discussion on Iran-related language was a bit complicated and they haven’t yet reached a conclusion on what sanction should be applied.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin back above USD 61k, whilst Ethereum finds support around USD 3k.
Binance converted the entire pool of assets held in an emergency fund for users into USDC stablecoin. The fund serves as a backstop for customers in “extreme situations”, according to Bloomberg.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mostly higher after gradually shrugging off headwinds from the tech-led selling in the US.
ASX 200 was led by the mining industry after BHP’s encouraging quarterly production update.
Nikkei 225 recovered all of its opening losses and returned to above the 38,000 level.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the positive mood but with upside capped in the mainland by US-China trade frictions after President Biden called for an increase in tariffs on Chinese metals.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC Governor Pan met with Fed Chair Powell and they exchanged views on the economic situation, monetary policy and financial stability, while Pan also met with IMF’s Georgieva in Washington and exchanged views on cooperation between China and the IMF.
PBoC Deputy Governor says there is still room for monetary policy going forward.
US President Biden commented there is no trade war when asked about the proposed China metals tariffs, while he also commented that he wants fair competition, not conflict, with China.
US Secretary of State Blinken is travelling to China on April 23rd, according to Politico.
BoJ Board Member Noguchi said it is essential for the BoJ to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy and it is essential to continue to maintain an appropriate balance between labour supply and demand through the continuation of its accommodative monetary policy to achieve the 2% price target. Noguchi said it will take a significant amount of time until trend inflation continues to rise to around 2%, while the focus now is on the pace at which the policy rate will be adjusted and at what level it will eventually stabilise.
Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki held a bilateral meeting with US Treasury Secretary Yellen and agreed to communicate closely on FX, while Suzuki said he wants to closely consult with the US and South Korea on FX.
Japanese Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Kanda said Japan is always communicating with the US and each country’s authorities on Japan’s stance on FX and financial markets.
PBoC official says high real interest rates in some sectors may help control capacity and reduce inventories.
DATA RECAP
Australian Employment (Mar) -6.6k vs. Exp. 10.0k (Prev. 116.5k); Full Time Employment (Mar) 27.9k (Prev. 78.2k); Unemployment Rate (Mar) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. 3.7%); Participation Rate (Mar) 66.6% vs. Exp. 66.7% (Prev. 66.7%); NAB Business Confidence (Q1) -2 (Prev. -6).
3C ASIA AFFAIRS/
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.84 PTS OR 0.09% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 134.03 PTS OR 0.82% / Nikkei CLOSED UP 117.90 PTS OR 0.31% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.48%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.2390//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.2384 /Oil DOWN TO 81.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 86.09/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA/
Is China’s ‘Dumping’ Driving US Treasury Yields Higher?
THURSDAY, APR 18, 2024 – 07:45 AM
Tonight’s TIC data held few surprises and nothing of significant note, but it got us thinking…
For the 9th month of the last 11, China’s Treasury holdings declined in February (the latest TIC data), dropping by $22.7BN. Additionally, it has now been 24 of the last 28 months that China’s Treasury holdings have declined, now back at practically its lowest level since June 2009…
Source: Bloomberg
While we are acutely aware of the fact that ‘correlation is not causation’, one would find it hard to argue that the practically perfect concomitance of China’s Treasury holdings and the yield of the US 10Y Treasury note over the past three years makes us wonder (in our out-loud voices), if – away from The QT, The FedSpeak, the macro-economy, the geopolitical crises, the AI-hype, the growth scares – if it’s not just all a well-managed (slow and steady) liquidation of China’s (still massive) US Treasury holdings…
Source: Bloomberg
It’s hard to argue they don’t have an incentive to a) de-dollarize, and b) not liquidate it all at once, shooting themselves in the face.
While the de-dollarizing has been steady in Treasury-land (enabled by a vast sea of liquid other players), things have been a little more ‘obvious’ in the alternative currency space – i.e gold.
And in case you wondered, it’s not just China and Russia, world reserve Treasury holdings are ‘relatively’ flat (based on Fed’s custody data) while according to The IMF, the world’s sovereign nations have been buying gold with both hands and feet…
Source: Bloomberg
…happy to take whatever retail-ETF-sellers are offering into their physical vaults…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as we note in the chart, this all started to ‘escalate quickly’ when Washington really started to weaponize the dollar.
Assuming that all the US gold is still in Fort Knox (and assuming that China and Russia are honest about their holdings), the world’s ‘other superpowers’ are rapidly catching up to the US’ holdings…
Source: Bloomberg
Who could have seen that coming?
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
GERMANY/EU
The European Commission Is Preparing To Sue Germany Over Its Gas Tariffs
Unnamed Reuters sources said on Wednesday that the European Commission is preparing to sue Germany over its fees for purchasing gas from German storage in contravention of the European Union’s single market rules.
In a matter of days, the European Commission is expected to file its infringement procedure lawsuit against the German tariff, Reuters reports, citing two unnamed sources, though a spokesman for the Commission told Reuters that talks were ongoing.
The tariff, according to an EU energy regulator who spoke with Reuters, is creating higher gas prices in some EU countries.
Germany’s tariff on purchases of stored gas is a relatively new development that arose out of the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine when the EU banned imports of piped Russian gas, and in the wake of the shut-down of the Nord Stream pipeline, connecting Russia and Germany.
Germany is accused of using its neighbors to fill in a fiscal gap created by the need for Germany to fill its storage with more expensive, non-Russian gas.
That fee has tripled–at a minimum–since its implementation in October 2022, according to Reuters.
According to some members of the EU, the bloc’s single market rules do not allow for trade tariffs among its members.
“We remain in touch with the German authorities on this matter, including at political level…we do not speculate on the possible opening of infringement procedures,” a spokesperson for the Commission told Reuters, while an Economy Ministry spokesperson claimed the tariff was in the spirit of “European security” by enabling Germany to fill its storage.
On Tuesday, the Austrian Vice President of the European Parliament, Othmar Karas, and Austrian Energy Minister Leonore Gewessler challenged Germany’s gas transit tariffs before the European Commission, alleging that the higher fees made it more difficult for some of the bloc’s eastern members to give up Russian gas.
The end result, according to Austrian authorities, is that Austrians and other members of the bloc–mostly Eastern European–are footing the bill for the billions of cubic meters of gas Germany purchased when prices were high.
That gas must now be sold at a lower price, Euractiv reports.
The IDF carried out several attacks on terrorists in the Rafah area. It was also reported that there were several dead and wounded, according to Israeli media citing Palestinian media.
END
USA/IRAN
IDF has decided on type, not timing, of counter-strike on Iran
Top Hezbollah official killed as 3 Israelis injured by groups’ drones
Iran flag and Israel flag(photo credit: Cottonbro Studio/Pexels)
The IDF has decided how it will counter-strike Iran and its proxies but has not yet settled on the timing; multiple sources told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.
Because the timing is still variable and because of all the necessary complex preparations, the current decision could change.
However, the very development of a decision shows the severity and determination of Israel’s leadership to strike back, though all indications are that Jerusalem still seeks to tamp down the attack to avoid spiraling into a regional war.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi hinted that the timing of the attack was not very imminent during a visit to the Arrow air defense battery of Battalion 136.
He said, “We are enabling a home front policy to at least give citizens this Passover week to live almost like normal because we completely trust you and your readiness.”IRAN’S SUPREME Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei waves during a prayer marking the end of Ramadan, in Tehran, in April. (credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/West Asia News Agency/Reuters)
It is also possible that Halevi, Home Front command policies, and other officials keeping their regular schedules are part of a clever fake-out to get Iran and its proxies to lower their guard.
But at least the plain reading of the relevant signals suggests that a major attack is not imminent in the coming days and could even be postponed for longer.
Speculated options for an attack range from going big – striking Iranian nuclear facilities – to the middle of the road – striking drone or ballistic missile facilities that were directly involved in Iran’s strike – to more limited options – assassinating specific individuals or punishing IRGC officials abroad along with their accomplices; or, a mix of some of the above with a large cyber attack.
Still, some signals indicated that the Air Force would be involved in an unusually significant target. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Tuesday said, “The Iranians failed in their attack, and they will fail to deter Israel. The skies of the Middle East are wide open for the [Israeli] air force. Every enemy that comes after us will be struck wherever they are.”
Israel was attacked by over 500 aerial threats on Sunday
He also revealed that Israel was attacked by over 500 aerial threats on Sunday morning, encompassing both Iran and its proxies.
Until now, officials estimated 300-350 aerial threats, including around 120 ballistic missiles, 170 drones, and 30 cruise missiles. However, Hezbollah also participated in rocket fire, and Yemen, Syria, and Iraqi militia groups likely participated as well.
Gallant’s statement is the first public indication that quantifies aerial threats. The aerial threats continued from Hezbollah on Tuesday. The IDF announced it assassinated Ismail Yusef Baz, a senior Hezbollah commander for the Lebanon coastal region, equivalent to the rank of an Israeli brigade commander.
According to the military, Baz served for decades with Hezbollah in a variety of posts before becoming a coastal commander. Among his various roles was managing both rocket and anti-tank missile attacks into Israel.
He also masterminded various terror operations against Israel. Baz continues the list of close to a dozen senior Hezbollah officials killed by Israel since October 7; a smaller number of them were at the rank of brigade commander.
Hezbollah on Tuesday launched two attack drones, injuring three people, according to media reports. The military said the drones hit areas near Beit Hillel.
Hezbollah fired more rockets across northern Israel. The IDF responded with air strikes and artillery fire. The IDF also announced a drill for the northern region to test the interface between its cyber and technology units and its Northern Command operational units.
This highlights how part of Israel’s response to Iran could be in the cyber domain. It is quite possible as well that an attack by the Jewish state will lead to a further counter-strike by Tehran and its senior proxy, Hezbollah.
Northern Command is responsible for handling threats from Hezbollah and was in Iran’s crosshairs on Saturday night.
During the drill, combat and cyber and technology forces deployed throughout the North on every separate front, to simulate readiness for an all-out hybrid digital and kinetic war.
Division 210 drilled specific scenarios for threats from Lebanon and Syria, while artillery Brigade 282 also participated in an emergency scenario. The special alpine unit for high mountains also participated, including training for urban fighting scenarios.
Iran’s attack came after Israel assassinated top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Mohammed Reza Zahedi on April 1, who directed terror acts against Israel from Lebanon and Syria for years.
Meanwhile, in Gaza, Palestinian and Western news reported that the IDF had struck a building in the Tal as-Sultan neighborhood, west of Rafah, killing three Palestinians.
The military said Division 162 eliminated terrorists and destroyed terrorist infrastructure in a precise raid in the central Gaza Strip. Tanks killed numerous terrorists that were identified as advancing on soldiers.
A suspected Iranian spy ship is en route to Iran as the country braces for a potential strike by Israel, Bloomberg reports.
The outlet says the Behshad set sail from its position near the coast of Yemen on April 4 then stopped broadcasting its location until April 18, when it reappeared near the Strait of Hormuz.
Bloomberg says the ship’s signals indicate it will reach Iran’s Bandar Abbas port later today.
The Behshad is registered as commercial cargo ships with a Tehran-based company the US Treasury has sanctioned as a front for the state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines.
The vessel has been in the Red Sea since 2021.
It arrived there after Iran removed the Saviz, another suspected spy base in the Red Sea that suffered damage in an attack that analysts attributed to Israel amid a wider shadow war of ship attacks in the region.
Iran previously described the Saviz as aiding in “anti-piracy” efforts in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
In March, Tehran warned the US against targeting either ship.
Iran launched more than 300 missiles, drones, and rockets at Israel over the weekend, saying it was retaliation for an allegedly Israeli strike on April 1 on a site in Damascus that Iran said was a consular building, which killed two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps generals and several other officers.
Nearly all of the Iranian projectiles fired at Israel were intercepted, but a girl was seriously injured.
British Foreign Secretary David Cameron (L), European Union foreign policy Chief Josep Borrell (3rd-L), US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (4th-L), French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne (4th-R), Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs Melanie Joly (2nd-R), Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani (R), Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa (3rd-R) and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (2nd-L) attend the G7 foreign ministers meeting on Capri island, on April 18, 2024. (Remo Casilli / POOL / AFP)
European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell says there needs to be a review to improve the sanctions system in the wake of Iran’s unprecedented missile and drone attack on Israel.
“We will have to review the system” of sanctions “in order to enlarge it and make it more efficient,” Borrell tells reporters on the island of Capri, where the G7 is holding a meeting.
He says that since July 2023 there have been limits on exports to Iran by European firms of “the components that allow the production of these kind of arms.”
“So we will increase it,” he says.
“The important thing is the implementation of our decision,” he adds.
He also calls for restraint from Israel, saying the region is “on the edge” of war.
The United States, Israel’s top ally, has said it would soon impose new sanctions on Iran’s missile and drone program and said it expects allies to follow with parallel measures.
Iran’s drone and missile attack, launched in response to a deadly strike on Iran’s Damascus consulate widely blamed on Israel, has ratcheted up already sky-high tensions with the Israel-Hamas war raging in Gaza.
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH
IDF hits Hezbollah air defenses in northeast Lebanon after drone attack wounds 18
Military says it targeted terror group’s infrastructure in Baalbek region, known to be a Hezbollah stronghold
The Israel Defense Forces said Wednesday that it carried out an airstrike against a site belonging to Hezbollah’s air defense unit in northeastern Lebanon’s Baalbek, hours after the terror group carried out an explosive drone attack on northern Israel, wounding 14 soldiers and four civilians,
In a short statement, the IDF said fighter jets struck Hezbollah air defense infrastructure north of the city of Baalbek, almost 100 kilometers (60 miles) from the Israeli border.
According to Lebanese media, the strike took place near the town of Iaat.
Baalbek has been identified in the past as a Hezbollah stronghold. The strike marked the sixth time amid the war in the Gaza Strip that Israel struck Hezbollah positions in the Baalbek area.
The airstrike deep in Lebanon came in response to the explosive drone attack in the northern border town of Arab al-Aramshe.
Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it targeted a building being used by the Israeli military with guided missiles and explosive-laden drones.
According to the IDF’s initial probe, Hezbollah fired two anti-tank missiles at the town, before launching the drones, which directly hit a community center.
Though the town has been largely evacuated, soldiers are stationed there and may have used the building as a gathering space.
The victims were taken to Galilee Medical Center in Nahariya, which said that one was listed in critical condition and four others were seriously wounded. The remaining victims were moderately and lightly hurt, the hospital added.
According to the Israel Defense Forces, 14 of the victims were soldiers, including the five listed in critical and serious condition. The four civilian victims were all lightly hurt.
The terror group said the attack was a response to the killing of three of its members, including two commanders, in Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon a day earlier.
Warning sirens did not sound. The IDF was investigating why the alarms were not activated before the strike, and why the drone was not intercepted.
Footage posted to social media showed the explosive-laden drone crashing down on the community center.
Not long after the strike, alarms warning of incoming rockets sounded twice in Arab al-Aramshe.
Additional footage shows the Hezbollah explosive-laden drone striking the community center in Arab al-Aramshe, wounding seven people.
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160.2K Views
Following the attack, the IDF said it targeted the launch sites.
Fighter jets also struck buildings used by the terror group and where Hezbollah operatives were gathered, along with other infrastructure, in southern Lebanon’s Ayta ash-Shab, Naqoura and Yarine, the military added.
Since October 8, Hezbollah has attacked Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a daily basis with rockets, drones, anti-tank missiles and other means, saying it is doing so to support Gaza amid the war there.
The exchange of fire Wednesday came a day after Hezbollah launched two explosive-laden drones at northern Israel, wounding three people. Also on Tuesday, the IDF killed two top Hezbollah commanders and a third member of the terror group in airstrikes in southern Lebanon.
Israel has threatened to go to war to force Hezbollah away from the border if it does not retreat and continues to threaten northern communities, from where some 70,000 people were evacuated to avoid the fighting.
So far, the skirmishes on the border have resulted in eight civilian deaths on the Israeli side, as well as the deaths of 10 IDF soldiers and reservists. There have also been several attacks from Syria, without any injuries.
Hezbollah has named 278 members who have been killed by Israel during the ongoing skirmishes, mostly in Lebanon, but some also in Syria. In Lebanon, another 54 operatives from other terror groups, a Lebanese soldier and at least 60 civilians have been killed.
end
ISRAEL/WEST BANK
IDF arrests ISIS operative in West Bank, imminent terror attack thwarted
Border Police in Jerusalem, along with other forces and Shin Bet intelligence, arrested a wanted individual planning an imminent attack, transferring him for further investigation
Clashes between the Israeli army and Palestinians in the West Bank city of Hebron on May 12, 2021.(photo credit: WISAM HASHLAMOUN/FLASH90)
The IDF arrested an Islamic State (ISIS) operative overnight in the West Bank, Israeli media reported on Thursday. The operative was reportedly planning to execute an attack in the near future.
In a joint operation involving the Border Police in Jerusalem, along with additional forces and intelligence coordination from the Shin Bet, the individual was arrested and transferred for further investigation. He allegedly planned to carry out an attack in the immediate future.
ISIS terrorist cells dismantled in West Bank
Previously, in March, the Shin Bet announced that they had dismantled a terrorist cell plotting attacks inspired by the Islamic State. The four members of the cell, hailing from the vicinity of the West Bank village of Tarqumiyah, near Hebron, had assembled 100 explosive devices using guidance from online videos and instructions provided by Islamic State operatives overseas.
in January, two terrorists affiliated with the Islamic State organization were arrested by police, Border Police, and the Shin Bet for planning an attack in Jerusalem.
A MEMBER of ISIS waves the group’s flag in Raqqa (credit: REUTERS)
The terrorists had previously pledged allegiance to the terrorist organization, acquired chemical materials for making explosives, and plotted to target civilians and security forces stationed in the capital.
Later on Thursday, the prosecution is expected to file criminal charges against them as well as the individual arrested overnight in the West Bank.
end
I
end
IRAN/ISRAEL/USA/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(zerohedge)
Iran Navy Escorting Iranian Commercial Ships To Red Sea To Prevent Reprisal
WEDNESDAY, APR 17, 2024 – 08:00 PM
Iran has newly declared that its military will begin a mission to escort Iranian commercial ships to the Red Sea, protecting them from any potential hostile attacks or intercepts from the West or Israel, which comes as Washington and the European Union are readying expanded sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
“The Navy is carrying out a mission to escort Iranian commercial ships to the Red Sea and our Jamaran frigate is present in the Gulf of Aden in this view,” announced Naval Commander Shahram Irani, as cited in state media.
Ironically Iran’s allies the Houthis are currently blocking global commercial shipping in the Red Sea, having up to this point launched dozens or possibly hundreds of attacks on Western and international vessels. The Houthis have said they will allow safe passage for Chinese and Russian vessels, and of course it goes without saying that Iranian ships will be protected.
This fresh Iranian navy announcement also comes in the context of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) having seized the Portuguese-flagged container ship MSC Aries on April 13 near the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians say it is an Israeli-linked ship.
Iran now appears to be preparing to protect against retaliation for this ship seizure, such as the possibility of the US Navy intercepting Iranian oil tankers, also against tense backdrop of Israel mulling a direct attack on Iran following the Saturday overnight Iranian drone and missile attack on the Jewish state.
CNBC says that all of this is likely only the beginning:
Before this weekend’s tanker seizure, the last vessel Iran hijacked was the St. Nikolas on January 1. According to U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, that brought the total number of vessels being held to five, and over 90 crew members hostage. Previous to that, the Iranian-backed Houthis hijacked The Galaxy Leader on November 19.
The latest development has shipping and energy experts bracing for a long-term timeline of uncertainty.
“Iran is in this for the long haul,” said Samir Madani, co-founder of Tankertrackers.com, an independent online service that tracks and reports crude oil shipments in several geographical and geopolitical points of interest.
Tehran has also recently reiterated long-running threats that it could close the vital Strait of Hormuz which its forces regularly patrol and is just off the Islamic Republic’s coast.
Iran’s military has also of late been threatening to attack US military bases across the Middle East, especially in Western Iraq and Eastern Syria. Western diplomats are currently seeking to push Prime Minister Netanyahu to stand down and not escalate further, but it seems Tel Aviv is indeed planning something imminent.
END
IRAN/USA//SANCTIONS
A JOKE!!
Biden’s ‘Punishing’ Iran Sanctions For Israel Attack End Up Being Meek Political Smokescreen
THURSDAY, APR 18, 2024 – 12:05 PM
President Biden has unveiled the administration’s promised new sanctions on Iran targeting the country’s drone, steel and automotive industries, which is ‘punishment’ in response to the unprecedented Saturday overnight Iranian ballistic missile and drone attack against Israel.
Biden’s Thursday statement presented the sanctions as part of his vow to help defend Israel and all about “holding Iran accountable”. Biden touted that during the weekend attack, “Together with our allies and partners, the United States defended Israel.”
“The sanctions target leaders and entities connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran’s Defense Ministry, and the Iranian government’s missile and drone program that enabled this brazen assault,” he said, also emphasizing that G7 partners are committed to “acting collectively to increase economic pressure on Iran.”
This is toward restricting “Iran’s destabilizing military programs” and to utilize sanctions “that further degrade Iran’s military industries.” But at the same time US have officials have reportedly been warning Israel behind the scenes that it should not pursue a military strike against Iran.
Other Western allies, including Germany and the UK, have taken the US stance of wanting to cool any potential escalation which could spiral to major regional war. Prime Minister Netanyahu on Wednesday said he was receiving “all kinds of suggestions and advice,” but Israel will nevertheless “make our own decisions, and the State of Israel will do everything necessary to defend itself.”
A fresh Thursday statement from US Treasury said the new Iran sanctions are being coordinated with Britain, particularly measures which target the Islamic Republic’s drone program.
“We’re using Treasury’s economic tools to degrade and disrupt key aspects of Iran’s malign activity, including its UAV program and the revenue the regime generates to support its terrorism,” said Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. According to details revealed thus far the sanctions target 16 individuals and two entities overseeing Iran’s drone production, per Axios:
Five companies that provide materials for “Iran’s Khuzestan Steel Company (KSC),” will also be listed, according to the release.
In addition, three subsidiaries of the Bahman Group, an Iranian automaker, will also be sanctioned.
But so far it doesn’t look like new sanctions on Iranian oil are on the table, which will no doubt result in further Republican anger that Biden has been more worried about gasoline prices (and his own re-election chances) than Israel’s security.
In the background is also the last September decision of the White House to release some $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue in exchange for the release of some hostages that were held in Iranian prisons. Critics point out that Biden could hit Tehran’s military funding where it really hurts, but is intentionally turning a blind eye – specifically regarding China’s massive and ongoing purchases of Iranian oil.
The Wall Street Journal also took a swipe at the administration this week:
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Tuesday that “all options” are on the table to disrupt Iran’s terror financing. Great, and we hope this means the Administration will welcome the 383-11 vote in the House Monday to expand sanctions against Chinese financial institutions that buy Iranian oil.
It’s no secret the White House has been reluctant to stiffen sanctions against Iranian oil lest prices rise before the November election. The Administration has looked the other way as Chinese “teapot” refineries have imported an increasing amount of Iranian crude at a discount.
Meanwhile Iran’s oil exports are at a six-year high, as FT points out: “Iran is exporting more oil than at any time for the past six years, giving its economy a $35bn-a-year boost even as western countries discuss stepping up sanctions in response to its attack on Israel.”
The awkward political dance by the administration is basically summed up in this:
Yellen alluded to “all options” on Tuesday, and yet Thursday’s formal announcements on anti-Iran sanctions curiously leave out anything regarding oil. “Clearly, Iran is continuing to export some oil. There may be more that we could do. I don’t want to preview our actual sanctions activities, but certainly, that remains in focus as a possible area that we could address,” Yellen had said.
But Republicans are expected to do something about this, in the form of stuffing Iran oil sanctions into the House foreign aid package that House Speaker Mike Johnson is looking to bring to a vote. Senator James Risch of Idaho was cited in Bloomberg as saying “The pot’s boiling right now” as there are “discussions in the two houses to include some of those kinds of things in this package that will hopefully pass out of the House.”
IRAN/IRGC/SYRIA/LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH
Iran evacuates Hezbollah, IRGC commanders from Syria amid fears of Israeli retaliation
Amid concerns of an Israeli retaliation strike onto Iran, Iran has evacuated IRGC and Hezbollah commanders stationed within Syria.
Members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attend an IRGC ground forces military drill in the Aras area, East Azerbaijan province, Iran, October 17, 2022(photo credit: IRGC/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS)
Reports have claimed on Wednesday that Iran is currently preparing for a potential Israeli retaliation against its territory or proxies following Tehran’s missile attack onto Israel on Sunday. As such, Iran has allegedly removed senior Hezbollah and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from Syria.
This comes amid US and European pressure onto Israel to respond in a way that prevents further escalation following Tehran’s missile and drone attack over the weekend.
Reports citing Iranian officials said Wednesday claimed that that Iran is currently preparing its air force for potential strikes, and its navy would commence escorting Iranian commercial ships in the Red Sea.
Additionally, Tehran has initiated the evacuation of personnel from sites in Syria with a significant presence of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to Syrian and Iranian officials and advisers.
A Noor missile is fired from Iran’s first domestically made destroyer, Jamaran, during a war game by the Iranian army near Jask port in southern Iran May 11, 2010. (credit: REUTERS/ISNA/Ruhollah Vahdati)
IRGC, Hezbollah mid-ranking officers relocating
IRGC and Hezbollah‘s mid-ranking officers are relocating from their original positions within the country to various undocumented locations, as reported by the Wall Street Journal citing Syrian security officials.
On April 8, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has taken action alongside Iran’s aggressive stance. He affirmed Iran’s support for Hezbollah’s “resistance” and declared that the presence of the IRGC in Syria and Lebanon dates back to 1982, following Israel’s aggression towards Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Tehran has stated its intention to retaliate against any Israeli action, indicating a departure from its decades-long shadow conflict with Israel, primarily conducted through proxies, to direct engagement.
Hezbollah was on heightened alert during the Iranian attack over the weekend, expecting potential Israeli retaliation targeting its positions.
However, it has since reduced its threat level, as it believes Israel is unlikely to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon in response to Iran’s attack. Instead, Hezbollah has been advised by Iran to take precautionary measures in Syria, where Israel could target IRGC bases, warehouses, and Hezbollah posts.
Israel has asserted that it will respond to Iran’s Sunday attack, stating it’s “only a matter of how.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that “Israel has a right to defend itself” addressing the notions of a counterstrike.
Israel’s potential response could escalate its conflict with Hamas, backed by Tehran, into a wider regional war, a scenario both sides aim to avoid. However, concerns are mounting over potential misinterpretations of intentions between Israel and Iran.
To encourage Israel to limit its response, the White House announced plans on Tuesday to impose economic sanctions on Iran. These measures would target the IRGC, along with its missile and drone programs, while further sanctions may impact Iran’s oil industry and revenue generation capabilities.
Amassing international pressure against a strike on Iran, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visited Israel on Wednesday to meet Netanyahu while emphasizing the need for de-escalation.
Nevertheless, US officials have express concern that an Israeli counterstrike could exacerbate regional tensions. As a result of this, they have suggested accepting an Israeli ground invasion in Rafah instead of striking Iran.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/
END
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES
COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG ISSUES
A BIG ISSUE! MUST READ
SPECIAL THANKS TO ROBERT H FOR SENDING
TURBO CANCER Literature is growing rapidly – 6 new COVID-19 Vaccine Turbo Cancer papers published in April 2024 – 26 total – the dam is breaking and it will take Pfizer & Moderna with it
One of the more difficult aspects of working in economic analysis is the problem of rampant disinformation that you have to dig through in order to get to the truth of any particular issue. In this regard, economics is very similar to politics. The propaganda is endless and debunking it sometimes feels like moving a mountain with a teaspoon.
Establishment media sources lie incessantly about our financial conditions, and when they are finally cornered and forced to admit how bad things are, they then lie about the causes. That said, I find that these lies are usually designed to do one of two things: Over-complicate the problem so that people give up thinking about it, or, distract from the problem so that people blame a scapegoat.
As for inflation, here is the bottom line:
Central Banks And The Fiat Flood
Rising prices are caused by two main drivers. The first is money creation, or too many dollars chasing too few goods. Central banks around the world have been FLOODING the system with fiat currency ever since the debt crisis of 2008 and the Federal Reserve within the US is the worst violator by far. We are talking about tens of trillions (or more) in money creation, all supposedly as a means to stall or prevent a deflationary crash.
By the time the pandemic lockdowns were initiated and the Fed dropped $8 trillion+ onto the economy through stimulus measures like covid checks and PPP loans, the total US money supply was already at destructive levels. The covid stimulus was simply the straw that broke the camel’s back. So, if you want to know who is directly to blame for your daily expenses rising 30% or more in the span of three years, the first set of criminals are the central bankers.
Governments and certain corporate partners are also to blame, but the central banks are the root mechanism for all inflationary movements. It’s my belief (according to the evidence) that central banks have deliberately triggered a stagflationary crisis with the intent to forcefully replace cash based economies with a new digital and cashless global economy. However, that’s a discussion for another article…
Shortages And Core Resources
The other primary cause of rising prices is shortages or disruptions in key resources including oil and energy. Keep in mind that the war in Ukraine has led to the west being cut off from large portions of the resource rich Russian market. And, the war in Gaza has led to groups in the Middle East like the Houthis denying a multitude of cargo ships and oil tankers from traversing the Red Sea.
By themselves, each one of these events seems like a small threat to the global supply chain, but when they pile up together the effects become detrimental. For now, the biggest factor is rising energy prices because this is the key resource that allows all agriculture and manufacturing to function. Every time oil prices rise you’re going to see prices in everything else rise.
This is the exact reason why the Biden Administration continued to dump the US Strategic Oil Reserves on the market for the past couple years. This was their way of manipulating oil prices down in order to mitigate or hide the greater effects of inflation. Now that they’re being pressured to refill those reserves and start buying (at a much higher price) global oil prices and US prices in particular are spiking again.
Media Disinformation And Crushing Food Costs
Food costs have risen by 30% or more depending on the product since the beginning of 2020, and even though CPI reports several months ago showed a “slowdown” in overall inflation, this does not mean prices are going to go down anytime soon. In fact, they will only keep rising with each passing year.
CPI is a tool for measuring the AVERAGE price increases of over 80,000 products and services across a wide spectrum. Many of these items are not necessities and so they dilute the actual inflation we are seeing in everyday expenditures. If we were to look at an average of daily necessities like housing, energy, food, etc. then CPI would read far higher.
When the media touts a lower CPI print as a sign that the economy is improving, what they usually don’t mention is that the stat only represents how much higher prices are going to go. A lower CPI does not mean costs on the shelf are going to go down. Inflation is cumulative.
Meaning, that 30%+ increase in food that Americans have been dealing with – That’s not going away, it’s just not climbing as fast as it was. And, as we’ve seen in the past couple months, inflation has the ability to return just as quickly to add even more gasoline to the fire.
Not long ago I was reading through an article from CBS that claimed they could explain why there’s been no respite in food prices lately. In reality the entire piece was disinformation, blaming every possible scapegoat while ignoring the real causes.
Their main explanation is “Greedflation,” or the claim that companies are overcharging on food items. In other words, blame businesses, don’t blame the Federal Reserve and don’t blame the government. They’re “innocent” in all of this.
So far there’s no concrete evidence to support the Greedflation theory. Every business has unique expenses, unique overhead, unique industrial costs, unique quality control and unique resource costs. One cookie company’s bottom line will be different from another cookie company’s bottom line. That said, there are universal costs that directly correlate to higher prices regardless of the company, and that includes energy, labor, and core commodities.
For those that track the markets it’s obvious that commodities are climbing. The Industrial Commodity Index is far higher today than it was in 2020, along with oil and gas prices. Every base resource that companies use to make products is increasing in value and thus it costs them more to manufacture. Agriculture in particular is heavily affected by oil prices as well as prices in fertilizer and farming equipment, not to mention higher costs in labor.
From 2020 to 2023 the total costs paid by farmers to raise crops and care for livestock increased by more than $100 billion, or 28%, to an all-time high of $460 billion in 2023. Funny how that number tracks very close to the 30% increase in overall food prices since 2020.
The establishment media wants you to believe that high food prices are going to go away soon, and in order to trick you they need to convince you that the cause is something that can be “controlled” or “regulated”.
There is no indication that agricultural costs are going to stop increasing in the near future, so, that means each year food is going to cost you more than the year before.
It might even cost you MUCH more than the year before.
In conclusion, this is why people need to start looking at food as an investment similar to the way they might look at their 401K or any retirement plan. If you want to mitigate costs in the future in terms of food you will need to purchase foods with a long shelf life now. If you think that inflation is a passing phase and that things will go back to the way they were before 2020 then you probably won’t take this concern seriously. But, consider this:
Well before 2020 I was warning regularly about an impending stagflation crisis. The food storage I bought in 2020 now costs at least 30%-50% more to buy in 2024. Meanwhile, some of the top mainstream economists in the country were denying such a thing would ever happen. When it did happen, they claimed it was “transitory.” This was also proven false. Now they claim food will drop after companies are forced through regulation to cut prices.
Whether government intervenes or the market continues to react to poor fiscal policies, it is quickly becoming a necessity to invest in food security as soon as possible. Government enforced price controls have never actually proven effective in stopping inflation. Once you remove all profit incentives many businesses will close up shop. This causes the supply of goods to go down and prices then spike anyway due to shortages.
Do you want to bet your future on establishment economists being right for once, or, do you want to just store some food today in the knowledge that prices are only going exponentially higher?
* * *
One survival food company, Prepper All-Naturals, has proactively dropped prices to allow Americans to stock up ahead of projected hikes in beef prices. Their 25-year shelf life steaks currently come at a 25% discount with promo code “invest25”.
5 students injured, SUV driver critical after school bus crash in Yorktown
April 12, 2024
Yorktown, NY — Police say several students suffered minor injuries after their school bus was involved in a crash with another vehicle in Yorktown on Friday morning. The crash happened before 9:30 a.m. and police say Route 132 will be closed between Barger and Wildwoods streets for the investigation. Five high school-aged students were on the bus at the time of the crash and were taken to Westchester Medical Center with non-life-threatening injuries. The bus driver was taken to the hospital for observation. The driver of the other vehicle, an SUV, is in critical condition at Westchester Medical Center after EMS found him unconscious inside the car. Police were investigating if the driver suffered amedical emergency or not but the cause of the crash remains under investigation.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
School bus lands on its side after colliding with a Maserati in Ellis County, officials say
April 12, 2024
Ellis Co, Texas — The Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS) is investigating a crash involving a luxury car and a school bus in Ellis County Friday afternoon. According to officials, around 4:30 p.m., an Ellis County Co-Op school bus was traveling north on Farm to Market Road 55 near Goodwyn Road when a Maserati Ghibli traveling in the opposite direction veered into the school bus lane striking the bus on the left side. The collision caused the school bus to roll onto its side coming to rest in a nearby ditch. A 15-year-old student aboard the bus sustained minor injuries and was taken to the Midlothian Methodist Hospital for treatment, officials say. The school bus driver was uninjured in the crash. The driver and passenger of the Maserati also walked away unscathed, according to the Texas DPS. Texas DPS said the crash is under investigation.
School bus crashes after driver suffers medical emergency, multiple students injured
April 10, 2024
Eleanor, W.Va. – Several students and a bus driver in West Virginia were taken to a hospital early Wednesday morning following a single-vehicle crash. WCHS-TV reported the crash happened at around 7:30 a.m. ET in Putnam County in the eastern part of the state while the children were enroute to school. According to the network, the bus struck a tree near the community of Eleanor. In total, nine elementary and middle school-aged students were transported to a local hospital, most with minor injuries. Parents of the 25 children on the bus were all notified of the crash, according to the Putnam County Sheriff’s Office. The driver, who was also hospitalized, is believed to have suffered a serious medical emergency before the bus left the roadway. The condition of the driver was not released. The sheriff’s office later told WCHS that one of the injured children is now listed in serious condition and will have to undergo surgery for injuries sustained in the crash.
Driver loses consciousness, crashes into oncoming car in Westfield
April 12, 2024
Westfield, NJ — A man, who is believed to have suffered amedical emergency, crashedinto oncoming traffic after losing consciousness on Thursday, said Westfield Police Chief Christopher Battiloro. On April 11 at 12:37 p.m., a crash was reported on West South Avenue about 100 feet from Boulevard with injuries and airbag deployment. A vehicle going east on West South Ave went into the opposite lanes of traffic, crashing with a vehicle going west, said Battiloro. The driver of the vehicle traveling east, a 50-year-old man from Elizabeth, appears to have suffered a medical episode while driving and lost consciousness, said Battiloro. He was taken to University Hospital in Newark by the Westfield Rescue Squad with paramedic accompaniment. The driver of the vehicle going west, a 75-year-old woman from Cranford, refused medical treatment. The medical episode was the apparent direct cause of the crash. Both vehicles were rendered inoperable and towed from the scene.
Panama City Beach, Fla. — One Bay County woman received a rude awakening at about 5:40 a.m. Wednesday. A vehicle plowed into her home located at the corner of Raven Street and Pine Tree Avenue in Panama City Beach. The car went right through the woman’s bedroom wall, pinning her underneath. Bay County Fire Rescue had to cut the woman out of the predicament. Both the woman and the driver, a 47-year-old Missouri man, were transported to Bay Medical Sacred Heart. State troopers said they’re both in stable condition. “What I understand is a motorist was traveling and may have experienced a medical episode. I’m not certain at this time, but it appears that they veered off the roadway, hit a post, and then directly into the home, which has got to be frightening for the residents,” Florida Highway Patrol Lieutenant Jason King said. Lt. King says this is the third instance of a vehicle hitting a house over the last three days, which is being investigated by Troop A State Trooper. He said he does not believe that alcohol was a factor in any of these crashes.
Richland woman injured after medical emergency accident
April 10, 2024
A 62-year-old Richland [MO] woman suffered serious injuries following a single-vehicle accident at 9:45 Tuesday morning on Highway A.B. and Star Lane in Pulaski County. The Missouri Highway Patrol reports that Eldona S. Marlowe suffered a medical condition, ran off the right side of the road, struck a ditch, and overturned. Marlowe was transported to Phelps Health.
Vernon, N.Y. — Sheriff’s deputies and bystanders are credited with saving the life of an Oneida man on Saturday night. According to the Oneida County Sheriff’s Office, 44-year-old Nathan Petrie suffered a medical emergency while driving on Route 5 in Vernon just after 9:30 Saturday night. Deputies say the medical emergency caused Petrie to veer into the oncoming lane of traffic and hit an SUV driven by 19-year-old Dennis Galstian of Syracuse. Petrie’s car then struck a guard rail before catching fire. With the help of bystanders, Petrie was able to be pulled out of the car, suffering only minor injuries. Three children in Petrie’s car along with the occupants of the car he collided with were uninjured.
Quinton crash in Wolverhampton Road due to medical incident
April 8, 2024
A woman has been taken to hospital after a car crashed into a lamp-post in Quinton earlier today (Monday April 8). West Midlands Ambulance Service said it sent an ambulance, a MERIT trauma doctor and critical care paramedic to the scene after being alerted at 11.39 am to reports of a crash between a car and a lamp-post.
persistent damage and stress; p53 guardian is critical in cancer tumor suppression & research shows that the spike protein (from virus or mRNA vaccine) suppresses p53 (Zhang et al.) New research!
Emerging research supports COVID mRNA vaccine as linked to the development of cancer.
‘The suppressive effect of SARS-CoV-2 spike on p53-dependent gene activation provides a potential molecular mechanism by which SARS-CoV-2 infection may impact tumorigenesis, tumor progression and chemotherapy sensitivity. In fact, cisplatin-treated tumor cells expressing spike S2 were found to have increased cell viability as compared to control cells. Further observations on g-H2AX expression in spike S2-expressing cells treated with cisplatin may indicate altered DNA damage sensing in the DNA damage response pathway.’
Alexander COVID News_a PCR manufactured fake COVID pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This breaking preprint by Zhang et al. gives us more evidence that the spike glycoprotein (e.g. S2 sub-unit) whether from the natural virus infection (COVID virus) or synthetic man-made cellular spike protein (translated from mRNA-LNP complex platform injected into your deltoid) post mRNA technology vaccine (Pfizer, Moderna, BioNTech due to Bourla, Bancel, Malone, Kariko, Tureci, Weissman, Sahin et al.) inhibits a critical tumor suppressor protein e.g. P53, which can lead to increased incidence of cancer. It is more than likely that this is one of the key pathways involved in the explosion of cancers since the roll-out of the mRNA vaccines, January February 2021. Especially in high-vaccinated nations.
In other words, there is confirmation that what we were and have and are injecting into us by way of this mRNA technology vaccine is CANCER causing. CANCER promoting.
‘Our results have implications for the biological effects of spike S2 subunit in human cells whether spike is present due to primary COVID-19 infection or due to mRNA vaccines where its expression is used to promote anti-viral immunity’;
these results indicate (adds to the body of evidence) that the mRNA vaccine is deadly as to enhancing cancer development, cessation of remission, and exploding metastasis. We have seen this via emergence of TURBO cancers all around us.
‘Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and COVID-19 infection has led to worsened outcomes for patients with cancer. SARS-CoV-2 spike protein mediates host cell infection and cell-cell fusion that causes stabilization of tumor suppressor p53 protein. In-silico analysis previously suggested that SARS-CoV-2 spike interacts with p53 directly but this putative interaction has not been demonstrated in cells.
We examined the interaction between SARS CoV-2 spike, p53 and MDM2 (E3 ligase, which mediates p53 degradation) in cancer cells using an immunoprecipitation assay. We observed that SARS-CoV-2 spike protein interrupts p53- MDM2 protein interaction but did not detect SARS-CoV-2 spike bound with p53 protein in the cancer cells. We further observed that SARS-CoV-2 spike suppresses p53 transcriptional activity in cancer cells including after nutlin exposure of wild-type p53-, spike S2-expressing tumor cells and inhibits chemotherapy-induced p53 gene activation of p21(WAF1), TRAIL Death Receptor DR5 and MDM2. The suppressive effect of SARS-CoV-2 spike on p53-dependent gene activation provides a potential molecular mechanism by which SARS-CoV-2 infection may impact tumorigenesis, tumor progression and chemotherapy sensitivity.
In fact, cisplatin-treated tumor cells expressing spike S2 were found to have increased cell viability as compared to control cells. Further observations on g-H2AX expression in spike S2-expressing cells treated with cisplatin may indicate altered DNA damage sensing in the DNA damage response pathway. The preliminary observations reported here warrant further studies to unravel the impact of SARS CoV-2 and its various encoded proteins including spike on pathways of tumorigenesis and response to cancer therapeutics….’
Conclusion
In summary, we identified the SARS-CoV-2 spike S2 subunit as a COVID-19 virus factor that interrupts p53 binding to MDM2 in cancer cells and demonstrated the suppressive effect of SARS CoV-2 spike S2 on p53 signaling in cancer cells. Correlated to the inhibition of p53 signaling, the short-term expression of spike S2 caused an altered DNA damage response through altered levels of g-H2AX after DNA damage in cells, altered sensing in the damage response to cisplatin Importantly, the p53-dependent DNA damage induction of growth arrest and apoptotic targets p21(WAF1) and TRAIL Death Receptor DR5 was significantly attenuated under different experimental conditions with spike S2 and this was associated with greater cell viability in the presence of spike S2 and chemotherapy treatment. As loss of p53 function is a known driver of cancer development and confers chemo-resistance, our study provides insight into cellular mechanisms by which SARS-CoV-2 spike S2 may be involved in reducing barriers to tumorigenesis during and post SARS-CoV-2 infections.’
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0675 UP .0006
USA/ YEN 154.45 UP 0.117 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2478 UP .0022
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3758 DOWN .0013 (CDN DOLLAR UP 13 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 2,84 PTS OR 0.09%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 134.03 PTS OR 0.82%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.48%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 134.03 PTS OR 0.82%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.84 PTS OR 0.09%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.48 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 117.90 PTS OR 0.31%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2382.85
silver:$28.45
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 105.71 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed UP ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2383
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2492)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.50 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.865…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.631% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.732 UP 3 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.984 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2383.65
SILVER AT 11;30: 28.40
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED UP 29.06 PTS OR 0.37%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 67.35 PTS OR 0.35%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 41.75 PTS OR 0.52%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 131.10 PTS OR1.23%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 248.74PTS OR 0.74%
WTI Oil price 82.43 12: EST/
Brent Oil: 87.087 12:00 EST WEST TEXAS: 85.51
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 93.83 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 47/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.48900 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.3080 UP 4 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0644 DOWN .0025 OR 25 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2438 DOWN .0014 or 14 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.3075 UP 2 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .865
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 154. 59 UP 0.254//YEN DOWN 25 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3772 UP .0001 CDN dollar DOWN 1
basis pts)
West Texas intermediate oil: 82.80
Brent OIL: 87.03
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 8 BASIS pts to 4.584%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 6 BASIS PTS to 4.703%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 3 PTS AT 4.936%
USA dollar index: 105.989 UP 21 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.53 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 93.78 UP 0 AND 49/100 roubles
GOLD 2,384,10 3:30 PM
SILVER: 28.32 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 22.07 PTS OR 0..058%
Stocks had limped higher all night after four straight days lower but into the cash open, Fed’s Williams ruined the party by admitting that while rate-hikes are not ‘his baseline’ they are possible if the data warrants. But that dip was bought aggressively after the open.
Stocks were spooked a little by the ‘no landing’ narrative screaming from Philly Fed’s data (showing HL improvement but soaring prices-paid, and despite the weakest workweek since COVID lockdowns, expectations for prices are at multi-year highs…), boringly (and mysteriously) solid jobless claims, and benign home sales…
Source: Bloomberg
But then more hawkish FedSpeak wrecked the ramp-fest as Bostic warned The Fed “won’t be in a position to cut rates until the end of the year.”
That leg pushed Nasdaq down to break its MT CTA ‘sell’ threshold (17,569) and things got interesting. A late-day bid put some lipstick on an otherwise pig of a day, but it couldn’t hold. The Dow closed green, Nasdaq was the biggest loser, with S&P and Small Caps red…
S&P down for five straight days hasn’t happened since October 2023 (just ahead of The Fed ‘Pivot’)…
Source: Bloomberg
Albeit much smaller, we once again saw a pump-n-dump around 1400ET…
Since 1990, I found 20 other times the S&P 500 opened green, but eventually closed red three consecutive days. It just happened today.
Negative returns on avg a month later and up only 55% of the time.
Could this be a subtle clue the bulls are losing control?
Having broken down through the ST CTA ‘sell’ threshold earlier in the week, today saw Nasdaq lose the MT CTA ‘sell’ threshold (17,569) and chop (support at 17462 (100DMA))…
As Goldman’s trading desk confirmed ” a combo of continued hawkish fed and strong macro data….testing some key levels too, with 2y notes right around 5%, and would think as we approach the weekend, there’s likely gonna be a push/pull between geopolitical weekend risk premium vs supply next week.”
“As a strategist, it is an uncomfortable place to be to have a target below the market, but our work continues to lead us in the same direction,” Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel said in an interview.
“Valuations are very, very taxing and the forward returns at these valuations tend to be subpar.”
The average pullback in a non-recession year is 13%, Emanuel added, pointing to stickier cost pressures and monetary policy that is “more of a question mark” as catalysts for further declines.
“Part of the story that got us — particularly in the momentum stocks — as overextended as we were at peaks in March, was that the public was an incredibly enthusiastic player in equity markets who saw some record flows,” Emanuel said.
“We now think this is an environment where people are going to temper their optimism and do a little bit of reset.”
Indeed, the US majors are suffering their biggest drawdowns since Sept 2023 (right before the Fed Pivot)…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX is now near its 6m high as markets continue to grapple with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and credit markets have started to crack…
Source: Bloomberg
But, while equities were not pretty, bonds were just as ugly with yields up 6bps across the short-end and belly with the long-end modestly outperforming (30Y +4bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
…with 2Y yields pushing back up to 5.00%…
Source: Bloomberg
For some brief moments today, May rate HIKES were more likely than CUTS…
Source: Bloomberg
…and 2024 rate-cut expectations closed at a new low with just 38bps priced-in…
Source: Bloomberg
After a couple of hard days, Bitcoin extended yesterday’s bounce off $60,000 ahead of what is expected to be the ‘halving’ tomorrow…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold also gained on the day, back above $2390 intraday…
Source: Bloomberg
…even as the dollar rallied…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices ended unchanged on the day, recovering from an early puke to an $81 handle (WTI)…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, the “no landing” narrative is winning…
Source: Bloomberg
…and as Nomura’s Charlie McElligott pointed out “‘no landings’ lead to ‘hard landings'”.
END
MORNING TRADING/
AFTERNOON TRADING/
II USA DATA
huge layoff are not accounted for
(zerohedge)
Jobless Claims Remains Deader Than Joe Biden’s ‘Uncle Bosey’
THURSDAY, APR 18, 2024 – 08:37 AM
In the real world labor market, 2024 has been a shitshow of layoffs…
1. Everybuddy: 100% of workforce 2. Wisense: 100% of workforce 3. CodeSee: 100% of workforce 4. Twig: 100% of workforce 5. Twitch: 35% of workforce 6. Roomba: 31% of workforce 7. Bumble: 30% of workforce 8. Farfetch: 25% of workforce 9. Away: 25% of workforce 10. Hasbro: 20% of workforce 11. LA Times: 20% of workforce 12. Wint Wealth: 20% of workforce 13. Finder: 17% of workforce 14. Spotify: 17% of workforce 15. Buzzfeed: 16% of workforce 16. Levi’s: 15% of workforce 17. Xerox: 15% of workforce 18. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce 19. Wayfair: 13% of workforce 20. Duolingo: 10% of workforce 21. Rivian: 10% of workforce 22. Washington Post: 10% of workforce 23. Snap: 10% of workforce 24. eBay: 9% of workforce 25. Sony Interactive: 8% of workforce 26. Expedia: 8% of workforce 27. Business Insider: 8% of workforce 28. Instacart: 7% of workforce 29. Paypal: 7% of workforce 30. Okta: 7% of workforce 31. Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce 32. Docusign: 6% of workforce 33. Riskified: 6% of workforce 34. EA: 5% of workforce 35. Motional: 5% of workforce 36. Mozilla: 5% of workforce 37. Vacasa: 5% of workforce 38. CISCO: 5% of workforce 39. UPS: 2% of workforce 40. Nike: 2% of workforce 41. Blackrock: 3% of workforce 42. Paramount: 3% of workforce 43. Citigroup: 20,000 employees 44. ThyssenKrupp: 5,000 employees 45. Best Buy: 3,500 employees 46. Barry Callebaut: 2,500 employees 47. Outback Steakhouse: 1,000 48. Northrop Grumman: 1,000 employees 49. Pixar: 1,300 employees 50. Perrigo: 500 employees 51. Tesla: 10% of workforce
But, according to the government-supplied data…
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week was unchanged at 212k (SA), basically flat since September of last year, and claims ticked modestly lower on an NSA basis…
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing Claims remains muted (elevate but muted) at 1.812mm Americans. It is now practically unchanged since August 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
But, here’s the thing… WARNs are soaring… and Challenger-Grey just announced that March saw the most job cuts (90,309) since January 2023…but government-supplied data on initial jobless claims continues to smoothly tick along near record lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Ah, Bidenomics!!
If Trump wins in November, will all this data suddenly be ‘allowed’ to reflect reality?
TUCKER CARLSON…
Tucker Carlson: Congress Is Lying To You About FISA
The U.S. House is expected to vote Friday on a two-year extension of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, commonly known as FISA. This transcript has been edited for length and reprinted with permission from Tucker Carlson.
A few years ago, we learned conclusively that, in fact, the FBI and the federal intel agencies—the dozen or more federal intel agencies we have, for some reason—had been working secretly against Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.
Trump had whispered about this, then shouted about it, was roundly denounced as a conspiracy nut, a lunatic. But in the end, he was vindicated. It was true.
These agencies spied on Trump, and they leaked some of what they learned to the media, which used it against Trump. Then these agencies concocted false stories about Trump. They tried to crush Trump completely in 2016 and then for the entire course of his presidency. Then they did the same thing in 2020 during the presidential election.
And they’re doing it still. They’re trying to put him in prison for the rest of his life. So if we take three steps back, what you have here is what we’re seeing now.
For the third time in three consecutive cycles, secretive federal agencies are trying to rig our presidential election. This is what the Democrats refer to as democracy, and they’re trying to defend it. But of course, it’s the opposite of democracy. It’s, in fact, the end of democracy in any semblance of a constitutional republic we ever had.
If you have a secret police force threatening people, spying on them, and working secretly the levers of political power, then you don’t have a democracy. You have no control over really anything as a voter.
So if there’s one thing the Republican Party, the opposition party, should be doing in response to this, right now, it’s fighting back against this descent into totalitarianism. They should be working to return freedom and democracy to the country. They should defend the Constitution. They should rein in these agencies, Washington secret police.
But you will not be surprised to learn they’ve been busy doing just the opposite. So if you’re wondering why no one is going to prison for any of this, now that we know what actually happened, well, the reason is in part a law called FISA, the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, has been around a long time.
Sen. Teddy Kennedy first proposed it, by the way, back in the mid-1970s. And that law allows the federal government to spy without a warrant on foreigners outside the borders of the country. The idea is bad people are doing bad things against us. We need to know what they are, and we can’t bother to go to a court to get a warrant every time we want to know, but it will never be used against American citizens. Well, of course, now we know it has been at scale.
That law, FISA, has made it possible. So that law is now up for reauthorization in the House of Representatives. And amazingly, the new speaker of the House, Mike Johnson of Louisiana, has spent the last couple of weeks doing all he can to get that law reauthorized.
In other words, to allow the federal agencies to continue to spy upon and punish people who disagree with them. In other words, Mike Johnson’s own party. Republicans, Trump voters. Mike Johnson has been working to do that, and that effort failed [Wednesday] because members of Congress heard from their constituents or came to their senses, saw the truth in a dream.
Whatever happened, they stopped Mike Johnson from doing that for the moment. So that’s a good thing. And you ought to be celebrating. And even if you didn’t know it was happening—and a lot of people didn’t because it got very little media coverage. But of course, this is a temporary victory. Like all bad things, like that Chlamydia you got in a hot tub in Cabo in college, it will come back.
This attempt to spy on you, an American citizen, without a warrant because you’ve been politically disobedient. Why will it come back? Because it’s what they really care about. And so, before it does come back, it’s worth just a very quick autopsy.
What just happened? What do we just see so we can learn a couple of important lessons?
The first lesson we’re going to learn is that a lot of powerful people in the Congress are liars. They lie without shame, in fact, with pride. And they do so at the behest of or because of blackmail instituted by the intel agencies. And at the head of that list would be the chairman of the House Intel Committee, Mike Turner of Ohio.
We’re going to play a clip from Mike Turner of Ohio saying exactly the opposite of what is true here. Is Mike Turner reassuring you that face, it would never, under the face of law, the U.S. government would never be allowed to spy on you without a warrant, because that’s unconstitutional. It never happened. It never will happen. And if you think otherwise, you’re probably one of those UFO-believing nutjobs who want to stop doing ayahuasca.
Here’s House Intel Committee, pawn of the intel agencies, Mike Turner of Ohio:
“They are—we are not surveilling foreigners in the United States. We’re not surveilling Americans, United States. Those individuals who say that is a warrantless search of Americans’ data are just not telling the truth. These are foreigners abroad. They’re a select group of individuals who are a national security threat. If you’re an American and you’re corresponding with ISIS, yes. If we’re, if we’re spying on ISIS, your communications are going to be captured. And you would want us to do that. All Americans would want us to try to make certain that we keep ourselves safe from these terrorist, outside terrorist groups, organizations. We are not spying on Americans. This is not a warrantless surveillance program. This is foreigners who are abroad only.”
Every word of that is a lie. And we don’t need to guess. And I hate to use that pronoun, but I specifically don’t need to guess, because that actually happened to me.
The [National Security Agency] broke into my text messages, read them, passed them to news organizations in order to discredit me, and then admitted that they did that. They spied on me and they did it under FISA because I was daring to text with a foreigner outside our borders.
So Mike Turner knows that, he’s the chairman of the intel committee. He knows he’s lying, but he’s doing it anyway because it’s that important to preserve that core power.
If you have the power to spy on someone and then to leak the information that you gather or manipulated and then leak it in order to control that person, that’s a major power. In fact, that’s a bigger power than any voter in this country has. And so he’s acting on their behalf when he lies to you. And so it shouldn’t surprise you that they want to keep that power.
They want to keep it so badly that over the last week, U.S. government officials did something that may not have precedent in Washington. They lobbied members of Congress directly. They, in the words they used in Washington, they whipped the bill.
Officials from the Department of Justice called, among others, [Rep.] Chip Roy of Texas to demand that he vote for FISA reauthorization.
Imagine that—DOJ, Department of Justice, the federal law enforcement agency, called Chip Roy and said, “You got to do this.” Think about that.
Is there any group in this country more powerful than the Department of Justice? They can put you in jail, and they’ve shown a willingness to do that. They could put kiddy porn on your computer. They’ve probably done that too. And everybody who serves in Congress knows that, and everybody’s afraid of them—along with the CIA and NSA and a bunch of other, three other agencies.
Members of Congress are afraid of them because they know the consequences of disobedience. And so for them to call directly a member of Congress would be like the FBI coming to your House on Election Day and demanding that you vote for their designated candidate. And then having access to the record of who you actually voted for, as they do in the Congress.
Can you imagine? You’d be highly motivated to vote for their candidate, wouldn’t you? Yes, you would. So they’re willing to do anything to get this enshrined in law, because it gives them legal cover to subvert democracy, which is their program, of course.
Last week brought bad news for the American people and President Joe Biden. Inflation persists and jobs are decaying.
On inflation, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported prices rose 3.5 percent between March 2023 and March 2024. This bad number is far higher than the U.S. Federal Reserve’s goal of 2 percent inflation—and it follows three years of price increases.
Inflation continues to build even after the Federal Reserve pushed interest rates to their highest point in 23 years.
Much to the Fed’s dismay, its restrictive private sector policies are being more than offset by the Biden administration’s massive deficits. While the Fed is trying to take liquidity out of the system and force a slowdown to lower inflation, the Biden administration keeps pumping borrowed money into the economy.
The contradiction between the Fed and the Biden White House increases the scale of government and shrinks the private sector. Furthermore, since the federal government is the world’s largest debtor, high interest rates translate into an even bigger federal deficit.
So, the long run consequences of Bidenomics on inflation is staggering. Measured from the time President Joe Biden took office, the prices Americans are paying have skyrocketed. In just three-and-a-half years, the price of eggs is up 49.3 percent, gasoline is up 47.5 percent, peanut butter is up 40 percent, butter and margarine are up 32 percent, electricity is up 28.3 percent, air fare is up 32.7 percent, used cars are up 20.9 percent—and the list continues.
The American people feel these price increases, and they are unhappy. Most Americans rate the economy as poor, while only 38 percent consider the economy is in good shape. (Under President Donald Trump, 65 percent rated the economy as good.)
As the Wall Street Journal editorialized:
“[I]f voters are downbeat about the economy, persistent inflation is a good reason. Price increases across the Biden Presidency are unlike anything Americans have seen in recent decades. They have been a particular shock for low-income and younger workers who haven’t accumulated a wealth cushion in the stock market or housing values.
“Mr. Biden is the main architect of his inflation problem—and ours.”
Mark Halperin with his usual insight asserted: “The story of who will win this election might just be that voters demand a change from the mind-boggling high cost of almost everything. The prices are just too damn high.”
As if inflation was not a big enough problem there is a an even bigger problem growing with the employment news.
“[I]n the past 12 months, employment among US natives is down by 651,000. Those declines were focused on men, a group President Biden already has increasing difficulties winning over.”
“In contrast, employment among foreign-born individuals grew by 1,266,000 in the past year, driven by the rapidly growing population of foreign-born individuals ages 16 and over in the US, which rose by almost 2.6 million during the past year. “
“The gap between US native and foreign-born employment is even starker since last summer. Since its peak in July 2023, employment of US natives has fallen by over 2.0 million, while employment of the foreign-born has risen by almost 1.4 million. “
From President Biden’s standpoint, Weidinger highlights a deadly detail:
“Friday’s jobs report reveals that unemployment among Black or African American individuals rose in March for the third consecutive month, to over 1.4 million, the highest level since January 2022. That group’s unemployment rate has risen from 5.1 percent to 6.4 percent in the past year.”
The jobs numbers contain even more problems for President Biden because part-time jobs are increasing much faster than full-time jobs. More and more Americans are finding themselves working two or three jobs—often with little or no benefits—just to make ends meet in an economy of constantly rising prices.
So, Bidenomics means rising prices, fewer jobs, more part-time employment, and a desperate sense that things are just not working.
Still, the propaganda media is trying hard to paint a pretty picture. CNN, for example, called the latest monthly jobs report a “blowout.”
But everyday Americans know when they go to the grocery store, pay monthly bills, or fill up their cars that life has gotten harder under President Biden.
The trademark of Bidenomics may be the steady shrinking of products. Take a Trump era candy bar or box of cereal and place it next to the same product today. In most cases, the price increased, and the unit size has shrunk.
Simply put: Bidenomics means you get less for more.
If this economic failure persists for another seven months—and it almost certainly will—then Bidenomics may be Biden’s downfall.
From Gingrich360.com
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
end
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM…
end
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
END
SWAMP STORIES
Alleged Illegal Immigrant Who Couldn’t Speak English Caught Trying To Rob Bank Using A Translator App
WEDNESDAY, APR 17, 2024 – 10:00 PM
You’d figure if you’re in the country illegally, you’d at least have the courtesy to learn the language before trying to hold up a bank…
But basic human decency is dead these days, as was exemplified by a Venezuelan-born man named Yeixon Brito-Gonzalez, who was caught trying to rob a bank in Sandusky, Ohio last week, according to PJ Media.
The police were able to apprehend him because he couldn’t speak English and resorted to using a translation app to communicate his demands to the bank tellers. When the tellers – probably wondering if they were being “Punk’d” – did not comply, Brito-Gonzalez, evidently embarrassed, simply left the scene, the report says.
The perp failed to prepare even basic English phrases like “give me the money” or bring an accomplice who could speak the language, the report says.
Upon locating Brito-Gonzalez, the police brought along a Spanish-speaking officer to interrogate him but he tried to play dumb. The report says it was later revealed that he told the teller he needed “money in a bag”.
Don’t we all…
Sandusky Police Chief Jared Oliver said:
“I have been in law enforcement for over 20 years and this is the first time I encountered something like this, someone using a translator app to try and rob a bank. First time our officers have dealt with it too.”
It’s has not been confirmed whether Brito-Gonzalez is in the U.S. illegally, though his lack of ID at arrest implies this might be the case.
Nevertheless, while federal authorities will likely question him, there are doubts about enforcement under the current administration, suggesting he may not face stringent consequences (as has been the running theme across the U.S. since Joe Biden has been in office).
Sandusky is a small city nestled along the shores of Lake Erie. Known primarily for its role as a major hub for rail and water transport, Sandusky has been a vital part of Ohio’s economy since its establishment in 1818.
KING REPORT
The King Report April 18, 2024 Issue 7224
Independent View of the News
@ces921: Dealers had to step up in a big way for that 4m T-bill auction just done. 52.3% to primary dealers is the highest in about a year (back to debt ceiling debacle last May). Indirects only took 38.7% which is lowest basically ever. Not really the sign Janet was looking for to assess current foreign demand trends for her paper. (The results of the huge T-Bill Auction appeared at 11:31 ET.)
@RNCResearch: A slurring Biden claims he “already cut the federal deficit” (a lie), claims he has “the most successful economy of any major economy in the world,” then again claims he “cut the federal deficit” (still a lie)https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1780307541055979684
@CBSNews: Some Biden administration officials are expecting Israel to make a limited strike inside Iran, a senior U.S. official tells CBS News’ David Martin. But Israel is not sharing its targeting with the U.S., so the U.S. does not know what form the Israeli retaliation will take or when it will happen. The U.S. also doesn’t know if Israel will give the U.S. a heads up, but as of right now there has been no notification. (Israel obviously distrusts Obama-Biden – and it probably has a good reason!)
Netanyahu says Israel will make its own decision on Iran attack response “I thank our friends for their support in defense of Israel and I say this — support in both words and deeds,” Netanyahu said in a statement Wednesday. “They also have all kinds of suggestions and advice, which I appreciate; however, I would also like to clarify — we will make our decisions ourselves. The State of Israel will do whatever is necessary to defend itself.”… https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2024/04/17/Netanyahu-Sunak-Cameron-Iran-response/8441713368726/
CNN: Hardline Israeli minister calls for “disproportionate” response to Iranian attack that will “rock Tehran”– Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has said that Israel’s response to Iran’s attack should inflict a “disproportionate toll” and “rock Tehran” to deter Iran from future strikes… the nature of Israel’s response would “shape [Israel’s] position in the Middle East…” https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-04-17-24/index.html
Sen. John Kennedy warns Israel won’t get ‘much help’ from Biden admin in possible counterattack on Iran – Kennedy argued the Israelis know the Biden admin isn’t filled with ‘wartime consiglieres’… They’re a lot more comfortable going on NPR and debating whether a man can breastfeed than they are… standing up to our enemies and Israel’s enemies… https://www.foxnews.com/media/sen-john-kennedy-warns-israel-help-biden-in-possible-counterattack-iran
The usual suspects, trying to ignore Powell’s change of face on rate cuts and Israel-Iran, eagerly played for the expected Weird Wednesday manipulation to squeeze expiring April call options.
But once again, fundamental sellers thwarted the conditioned, linear-thinking pattern traders.
ESMs traded sideways during Nikkei trading, oscillating between a 1-handle gain and a 14-handle gain. Near 1:36 ET, ESMs broke down. They tumbled to a daily low of 5075.75 at 2 ET, -21.25 from the top. The usual suspects then eagerly poured into stuff for the expected Weird Wednesday manipulation, which includes the manipulation for the 14:15 ET VIX Fix.
ESMs surged to 5117.00 at 6:48 ET. After a drop to 5101.50 at 8:24 ET, buying for the NYSE opening pump & dump commenced. ESMs surged to a daily high of 5120.50 at 9:11 ET. In recent sessions, the ‘dump’ has appeared earlier than in past months. This occurred again yesterday.
Selling pushed ESMs to 5078.00 at 10:51 ET. Bulls aggressively bought the dip; ESMs surged to 5096.50 at 11:03 ET. Selling returned; ESMs plunged to a daily low of 5047.00 at 12:46 ET. It was time to get long for the expected manipulation to game the 14:15 ET VIX April Settlement.
ESMs jumped to 5082.25 (+35.35 from low) at 14:00 ET. ESMs then traded in a range until they broke lower one minute before the VIX Settlement. ESMs hit 5069.75 at 14:17 ET and then bounced to 5080.25 at 14:28 ET. After a retreat to 5070.50 at 14:37 ET, the Weird Wednesday manipulation began.
ESMs soared to a daily high of 5120.50 at 14:46 ET. Sellers appeared; ESMs tumbled to 5069.00 at 14:55 ET, -51.50 in 9 minutes! After a 6-handle bounce, ESMs sank to 5062.50 at 14:08 ET. It was time for the last-hour manipulation. ESMs jumped to 5072.00 at 15:17 ET but fell to 5062.00 at 15:29 ET.
After an 8-handle rally, ESMs rolled over again. It was time for the late manipulation! ESMs jumped 13 handles from 15:40 ET to 15:48 ET but rolled over and sank to 5056.25 at 16:01 ET.
Oil and gasoline declined sharply on higher commercial inventories and on a delayed reaction to John Podesta’s warning on Tuesday the Obama-Biden is ready to drain the SPR even more to keep gasoline prices from rising.
BBG: Oil fell 3% to a three-week low as trend following algorithms accelerated the day’s selloff. Triggering and/or thwarting algos and momentum trading is a key reason for market rigging. This is how you get to fall to a 3-week low despite the Israel-Iran conflict and warnings that oil could triple or more.
Executive (Insiders) Unloading Their Own Stocks – David McAlvany (Audio) Insider Equity Selling 50/1 Over Buying BOA “We Cannot Allow the Markets to Determine Interest Rates” Private Equity Nightmare: 28,000 Unsold Companies Worth $3 Trillion Dollars https://mcalvany.com/executive-insiders-unloading-their-own-stocks/
@TripleNetInvest: A prime NYC office tower (100 Wall St) will be sold at a massive ~60% ‘discount’ to what it last sold for in 2015. The deal is priced at $115M, a huge haircut from the $270M Barings paid just 9 yrs ago.
Boeing’s safety culture, manufacturing quality under fire as whistleblower claims he was told to ‘shut up’ – Salehpour has claimed Boeing failed to adequately shim, or use a thin piece of material to fill tiny gaps in a manufactured product, an omission that could cause premature fatigue failure over time in some areas of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner… https://nypost.com/2024/04/17/business/boeings-safety-culture-manufacturing-quality-under-fire-on-capitol-hill/
WSJ’s @NickTimiraos: The BLS’s experimental “new tenant rent index” fell again in early 2024, posting the smallest four-quarter increase (+0.4%) since 2010. But the “all tenant” rent index held steady in Q1, rising 5.4%, the same as Q4.https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1780677182144028816
Because real rents keep showing inflation, the BLS has fabricated a new rent metric!
Positive aspects of previous session Oil sank to a 3-week low on higher inventories and probable market manipulation Bonds rallied almost one point
Negative aspects of previous session Very alarming T-Bill Auction results The DJTA got hammered again on land transportation stock weakness The Nasdaq 100 declined sharply Equity upward manipulation for Weird Wednesday kept reversing into declines
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Can the usual suspects generate a Weird Wednesday rally?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5035.81 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5077.96; 5007.25
LA mayor pleads for wealthy to help buy housing for the homeless: ‘Unprecedented partnership’ “We will not hide people but what we will do is house people,” the Democratic leader touted as she began her remarks on the city’s struggle to house over 40,000 homeless people. “The crisis on our streets is nothing less than a disaster.”… https://www.foxnews.com/media/la-mayor-pleads-wealthy-help-buy-housing-homeless-unprecedented-partnership
For the first time in 21 impeachments and 227 years, Senate Dems ‘tabled’ a trial. This is a direct and unequivocal violation of the US Constitution. Schumer asserted that lying to Congress is NOT an impeachable offense!Dem and liberal privilege trump the Constitution and rule of law! Senator Eric Schmist (R-MO) said Democrats’ impeachment tabling was akin to“setting our Constitution ablaze and bulldozing 200 years of precedent.”
GOP Sen. @HawleyMO: In 2020, Dems voted to impeach Trump without even charging a crime. Today they voted that a *felony* CANNOT be an impeachable crime. It’s beyond absurd.
@SpeakerJohnson: My joint statement with @SteveScalise, @GOPMajorityWhip, and @RepStefanik on Senate ignoring its constitutional duty to hold Mayorkas impeachment trial: By voting unanimously to bypass their constitutional responsibility, every single Senate Democrat has issued their full endorsement of the Biden Administration’s dangerous open border policies. Secretary Mayorkas alongside President Biden has used nearly every tool at his disposal to engineer the greatest humanitarian and national security catastrophe at our borders in American history. Tragically, Senate Democrats don’t believe this catastrophe merits their time or a discussion on the Senate floor. Instead, they’re signaling to millions demanding accountability that the cabinet official directly responsible for this disaster – who has ignored the law and misled Congress repeatedly – is above reproach. The American people will hold Senate Democrats accountable for this shameful display.
If the GOP had any guts, they would sue at the Supreme Court, which should direct the Senate to hold a trial. Then Schumer et al would hold a fake trial or openly defy the SCOTUS and end the rule of law.
It is time to consider: Given the level of debt, corruption, lawlessness, unconstitutionality, injustice, and embedded Marxism/leftism, is the US Republic salvageable or is some type of revolution necessary?
Cleve Fed Pres Mester Says Fed Can Hold Rates Steady, Not in a Hurry to Cut – BBG 18:57 ET
Fed Gov. Bowman: Progress on Inflation May Have Stalled – BBG 19:25 ET Bowman: Time Will Tell if Policy Is Sufficiently Restrictive – BBG 19:26 ET
Today – Negative fundamentals have thwarted trading schemes and manipulation this week. The usual suspects will again try to manipulate stuff higher to squeeze expiry April calls.
The S&P 500 Index low on Wednesday was 5007.25. The psychologically important 5000 is critical support. A significant close below 5000 would be very bad for stocks.
ESMs are +6.00; USMs are -4/32; and Gold is -4.20 at 20:32 ET.
Expected earnings: TRV 4.84, ABT .95, USB .87, CSX .45, DFS 2.96; Fed Beige Book 14:00 ET
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5118; 100-day MA: 4926; 150-day MA: 4731; 200-day MA: 4669 DJIA 50-day MA: 38,846; 100-day MA: 38,027; 150-day MA: 36,638, 200-day MA: 36,179 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5022.21 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4638.30 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5039.51 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5201.02 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5067.79 triggers a buy signal
@RNCResearch: Biden tells a story about his grandfather being “shot down in an area where there were a lot of cannibals” before recounting the debunked “suckers and losers” hoax for the second time in less than a day. https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1780632075185299595
@AZachParkinson: Unsurprisingly, Biden has made up most of this war story. Lt. Ambrose Finnegan was a ground crew member and ordinance officer, not a reconnaissance pilot. In 1944, Finnegan was the passenger of an A-20 (a twin-engine, not single-engine plane) that ditched, it wasn’t shot down. The flight went down over the Bismarck Sea, not “in an area where there were a lot of cannibals.” https://twitter.com/AZachParkinson/status/1780660166221832224 From the military records related to Ambrose Biden’s death: “Subject plane became lost and was forced to make a crash landing due to lack of fuel.” (Joe claims it was ‘shot down.’)
Impeachment ‘Whistleblower’ Was in the Loop of Biden-Ukraine Affairs That Trump Wanted Probed – In 2019, then-National Intelligence Council analyst Eric Ciaramella touched off a political firestorm when he anonymously accused Trump of linking military aid for Ukraine to a demand for an investigation into alleged Biden corruption in that country. But four years earlier, while working as a national security analyst attached to then-Vice President Joe Biden’s office, Ciaramella was a close adviser when Biden threatened to cut off U.S. aid to Ukraine unless it fired its top prosecutor, Viktor Shokin, who was investigating Ukraine-based Burisma Holdings… the corruption-riddled energy giant was paying Biden’s son Hunter millions of dollars… Ciaramella’s role – including high-level discussions with top Biden aides and Ukrainian prosecutors – is only now coming to light thanks to the recent release of White House emails and photos from the National Archives… Some former congressional investigators say Ciaramella effectively helped cover up a scandal far worse than what Trump was impeached over. What’s more, he failed to disclose that he had a potential conflict of interest stemming from his connection to the matter Trump asked Zelensky to probe when he lodged his complaint against Trump… What Ciaramella witnessed and what he documented in notes he took during high-level Biden-Ukraine meetings could now be relevant to the active impeachment inquiry of President Biden… https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2024/04/17/impeachment_whistleblower_was_in_the_loop_of_biden-ukraine_affairs_that_trump_wanted_probed_1024937.html
Mike Johnson’s Top Policy Adviser Is Former Lobbyist: Clients Have Corporate Interest in Ukraine War – The Speaker’s top two advisers, Policy Director Dan Ziegler and National Security Adviser Josh Hodges, are per multiple sources familiar with the matter, the top two aides within the Speaker’s office intently pushing him to flip-flop on Ukraine aide… As a lobbyist, Ziegler’s clients included pharmaceutical corporations, financial services firms, and energy companies, among other powerful interests… https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/04/17/exclusive-mike-johnsons-top-policy-adviser-is-former-lobbyist-clients-have-corporate-interest-in-ukraine-war/
@seanmdav: All of the chaos in the House is being by caused by Mike Johnson’s abject refusal to do the one thing he explicitly said he would do: secure the U.S. before funneling hundreds of billions of dollars overseas. Instead, he sold out his own country to give hundreds of billions more of our money to Ukraine. The question EVERYONE should be asking is why. Was Johnson bribed? Was he blackmailed? Or is he just so weak and pathetic that he was happy to break his word, abandon his principles, and sell out his own voters in exchange for back pats from Democrats and the corrupt Washington establishment?
NPR whistleblower Uri Berliner resigns: ‘I cannot work in a newsroom where I am disparaged’ Berliner was referring to Katherine Maher, who took over last month as President and CEO and has gone viral for past social media posts showing far-left personal views. “I am resigning from NPR, a great American institution where I have worked for 25 years. I don’t support calls to defund NPR. I respect the integrity of my colleagues and wish for NPR to thrive and do important journalism. But I cannot work in a newsroom where I am disparaged by a new CEO whosedivisive views confirm the very problems at NPR I cited in my Free Press essay,” Berliner wrote…https://www.foxnews.com/media/npr-whistleblower-uri-berliner-resigns-i-cannot-work-newsroom-where-disparaged
@realchrisrufo: (NPR CEO) Katherine Maher says the “the number one challenge” in her fight against disinformation is “the First Amendment in the United States,” which makes it “a little bit tricky” to censor “bad information” and “the influence peddlers” who spread it. NPR’s censor-in-chief.https://twitter.com/realchrisrufo/status/1780597079439446250
Dexter Reed’s Media Alchemists Build Their Martyr – John Kass The media alchemists tried to fashion him in death as a symbol… He had a criminal record… He pulled the trigger first. He was not a symbol of anything, except perhaps a symbol of the media’s political appetites… The police shooting of Dexter Reed is a tale told by a media that is determined to fan a spark into a blaze and burn Chicago—the host city of the 2024 Democrat National Convention—to a crisp… You’d think the corporate media—so eager and wiggly to list each and every anonymous complaint ever filed against police officers—might think it might be newsworthy to note the following: Reed picked up $20k in PPP loans for a “transportation” business while facing other felony charges. And the family lawyer having been suspended for lying to clients and allegedly making false statements to State Supreme Court investigators?…https://johnkassnews.com/dexter-reed-and-the-media-alchemists/
What we know about Copenhagen’s Old Stock Exchange that caught fire A fire at Copenhagen’s Old Stock Exchange on Tuesday engulfed its spire, which collapsed onto the roof in a scene reminiscent of the 2019 blaze at Paris’ Notre-Dame Cathedral… It was not immediately clear what caused the blaze. The building was undergoing extensive restoration ahead of its 400th anniversary to bring it back to its original Renaissance style… https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-we-know-about-copenhagens-old-stock-exchange-that-caught-fire-2024-04-16/
IRAN’S SUPREME Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei waves during a prayer marking the end of Ramadan, in Tehran, in April. (credit: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/West Asia News Agency/Reuters)
harveyorganblog.com 
