GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $15.00 TO $2398.70
SILVER PRICE UP $0.42 TO $28.74
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2378.75
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $28.26
The defense of $2300 gold is now upon us and surpassed. Next up $2400 gold//Silver’s next line is $28.42. Then $34.76
Bitcoin morning price:$64,939 UP 1708 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $64,016 UP 785 dollars
Platinum price closing DOWN $8.10 TO $935.50
Palladium price; DOWN $7.75 AT $1021,45
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 34 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD
SHANGHAI GOLD…
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Last Updated 19 Apr 2024 09:24:15 AM CT.
Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.
…from the CME….
“As of Monday, April 1, 2024, CME Group settlement data is no longer accessible through ftp.cmegroup.com and has a delayed publication time of 12:00 a.m. CT on all cmegroup.com web pages. Learn about alternate ways to access the data in our FAQ.”
Now I retrieve the data after 1 am
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros
4: 15 PM ACCESS
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3287.69 UP 10.46 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,301.52 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//APRIL 16 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1933.24 UP 19.49 pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1933.24 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 19/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2244,78 UP 8.69euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2248.89 EUROS PER OZ//APRIL 16.2024)
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END
EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,382.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/18/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 04/22/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 67
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 50
737 C ADVANTAGE 121
991 H CME 4
TOTAL: 121 121
MONTH TO DATE: 16,110
JPMORGAN STOPPED (RECEIVED) 0/121 CONTRACTS
FOR APRIL/2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2024. CONTRACT: 121 NOTICES FOR 12,100 OZ or 0.3763 TONNES
total notices so far: 16,110 contracts for 1,611,000 Oz (50.108 tonnes)
FOR APRIL:
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR nil OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1625 for 8,125,000 oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $15.00
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ :
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.32 TONNES OF NON EXISTENT GOLD INTO THE GLD/
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 831..91 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 831.91 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 42 CENTS AT THE SLV// (
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3,657 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/
// INVENTORY LOWERS T0 418.570 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 418.570 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 2446 CONTRACTS TO 178,712 AND STILL RAPIDLY CLOSING IN ON THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020 AND THIS STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR SMALL LOSS IN PRICE OF $.04 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION WITH AGAIN PANICKING SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS EVEN WITH THE SMALL PRICE LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 818 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 818 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.04), BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 3371 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF $0.04
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUGE SIZED 925 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 2.465 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 8.180 MILLION OZ//
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 8.180 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 818 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED A STRONG 421 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 15 days, total 21,062 contracts: OR 105.310 MILLION OZ (1440 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 100.685 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 105.310 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2446 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 925 ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL. OF 2.465 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAYS’ 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING REMAINS AT 8.180 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 3371 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 818 CONTRACTS,//CONSIDERABLE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (818) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5021 OI CONTRACTS TO 520,484 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 477 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (5021 CONTRACTS) WITH OUR STRONG $11.30 GAIN IN PRICE//THURSDAY. THE BANKERS WERE FORCED TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO CONTAIN GOLD’S RISE. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL. AT 44.8615 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 11,700 OZ.(0.3639 TONNES)
NEW STANDING 50.392 TONNES// ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $11.30 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7967 OI CONTRACTS (24.47 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 2946 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 520,484
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7967 CONTRACTS WITH 5021 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A GOOD SIZED 2946 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7967 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 1429 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2946 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI (5021) //TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 8444 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 44.8615 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 0.3639 TONNES QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING 50.392 TONNES.
/ 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE.
// 4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1429 CONTRACTS/ HUGE SHORT COVERING BY OUR WRONG FOOTED SPECS WITH THE FED’S CONTINUAL RAID ON THE COMEX GOLD.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
APRIL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 56.385 CONTRACTS OR 5,638,500 OZ OR 175.381 TONNES IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3817 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 175.381 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 175.381/3550 x 100% TONNES 4.95% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 175.381 TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 2446 CONTRACTS OI TO 178,712 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710(SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 925 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 925 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 925 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 2446 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 925 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3371 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 16.855 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.04 LOSS IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.96 PTS OR 0.29% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 161.73 PTS OR 0.99% / Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1011.35 PTS OR 2.66% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.03%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.2410//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2498 /Oil UP TO 82.28 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 86.59/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG 5021 CONTRACTS TO 520,484 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $11.30 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY TRADING. WE HAD FAIR T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AS WELL AS SHORTS ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO GET OUT OF THEIR NAKED SHORTS.
THE VOLUME ON THE COMEX YESTERDAY WAS ESTIMATED AT A FAIR 211,946.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS 2946 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 2946 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2946 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 7967 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2946 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 5021 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GOOD ADVANCE IN PRICE OF $11.30 THURSDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED 1429 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS ON WEDNESDAY WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (50.392 TONNES) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY: 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 50.392 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE $11.30 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7967 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE 0F $11.30.
WE HAD A FAIR T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF THURSDAY’S TRADING ALONG. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 24.47 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL. (44.8615 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MAMMOTH QUEUE JUMP OF 11,700 OZ (0.3639 TONNES)//NEW STANDING; 50.392 TONNES
NEW STANDING: 50.392 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $11.30
WE HAD REMOVED 477 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7967 CONTRACTS OR 796,700 (24.47 TONNES)
confirmed volume Thursday 211,946 contracts
//speculators have left the gold arena
APRIL 19/ INITIAL APRIL GOLD
/ /// THE APRIL 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | oz 32.15 OZ Brinks 1 kilobar . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 15,506.780 oz HSBC |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 121 notice(s) 12,100 OZ 0.03763 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 91 contracts 9100oz 0.2830 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 16,110 notices 1,611,000 oz 50.108 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
total customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Brinks 32.151 oz i kilobar
total customer withdrawal: 32.151oz
we had total deposit of nil oz
NIL
Adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL.
For the front month of APRIL we have an oi of 212 contracts having GAINED 111 contracts. We had 6 contracts served on THURSDAY, so we GAINED 117 contracts or an additional 11700 oz (0.3639 tonnes) will stand at the comex.
MAY GAINED 475 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 2313
JUNE INCREASED ITS OI BY 2574 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 417,142 CONTRACTS.
We had 121 contracts filed for today representing 12,100 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 121 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (16,110 x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (212 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (121 x 100 oz per contract( equals 1,620,100 OZ OR 50.392 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL. contract month: No of notices filed so far (16,110) x 100 oz + (212) {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (121) x 100 oz which equals 1,620,100 oz (50.392 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL: 50.392 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,599,812.623 49.76 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,586,130.145 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,521,055.666 (233,93 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,065,042,328 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,921,234 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD) 184.175 tonnes/dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
APRIL 18
INITIAL
//2024// THE APRIL 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 1,274,491.850 oz Brinks CNT HSBC JPMorgan . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 598,856.240 oz Brinks |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 0 CONTRACT(S) (nil OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 11 contracts (55,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1625 Contracts (8,125,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit :nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 deposits customer account:
i) Into Brinks 598,856.240 oz
total customer deposits 598,856.240 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 130.179 million oz/291.378 million or 44.67%
adjustment: 1
CUSTOMER TO DEALER JPM: 137,659.200 OZ
Comex withdrawals: 4
i) Out of Brinks 185,759.000 oz
ii) Out of CNT 599,923.340 ooz
iii) Out of HSBC 285.006.000 oz
iv) Out of JPMorgan; 203,803.510 oz
total withdrawal 1,274,491.850 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 47.196MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 291.378million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2023 OI: 11 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 43 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 43 CONTRACTS SERVED ON THURSDAY, SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX
.
MAY SAW A LOSS OF 2943 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 71,349
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 51 CONTRACTS RISING TO 631
JULY SAW A GAIN OF 5087 CONTRACTS UP TO 84,004
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for NIL oz
ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR WEDNESDAY: AN ASTRONOMICAL 122,750 CONTRACTS
confirmed Thursday volume; 92,102
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1625 x 5,000 oz = 8,125,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (11) and the number of notices served upon today 0x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL/2024 contract month: 1625 (notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL. (11) – number of notices served upon today (0 )x 500 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month equates to 8.180 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 8.180 million oz.
There are 47.196 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
APRIL 19 WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 831.91 TONNES
APRIL 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 827.59 TONNES
APRIL 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 830;18 TONNES
APRIL 16 WITH GOLD UP $23.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 828.45 TONNES
APRIL 15 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 826.72 TONNES
APRIL 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISESS AT 830.75 TONNES
APRIL 11 WITH GOLD UP $25.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.25 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLSS AT 828.46 TONNES
APRIL 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 828.71 TONNES
APRIL 9 WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 827,85 TONNES
APRIL 8 WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 826.41 TONNES
APRIL 5 WITH GOLD UP $38.65 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 832.45 TONNES
APRIL 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $3.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.73 TONNES
APRIL 3 WITH GOLD UP $33,85 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // INVENTORY REMAINS AT 829.00 TONNES
APRIL 2 WITH GOLD UP $23.90 TODAY; HUG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITH DRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 829.00 TONNES
APRIL 1 WITH GOLD UP $18.70 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 28 WITH GOLD UP $26.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 27 WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY FALLS TO 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 26 WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 835.33 TONNES
MARCH 25 WITH GOLD UP $17.05 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 838.50 TONNES
MARCH 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.75 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 838.50 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 831.91 TONNES,
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.657 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.570 MILLION OZ
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $.04TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.977 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF .868 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 426/204 MILLION OZ
APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF NON EXISTENT SILVER// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.072 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15/WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.069 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.23 TODAY: STRANGE INDEED! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.931 MILLION OZ :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.998 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10/WITH SILVER UP $0.04 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP $0.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.549 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.33 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.320 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.328 MILLION OZ
APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP $0.61 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.748 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 4/WITH SILVER UP $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.671 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.312 MILLION OZ
APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.14 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.835 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.641 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 84 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 6.721 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.806 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.085 MILLION OZ
MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.085 MILLION OZ
MARCH 27/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A A DEPOSIT OF 1.691 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.079 MILLION OZ
MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A A DEPOSIT OF 0.366 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 421.388 MILLION OZ
MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.887 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 421.022 MILLION OZ
MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.1899 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.909 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 418.570 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFFGOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
With ‘Halving’ Imminent, Peter Schiff Says ‘Bitcoin Has No Value’
FRIDAY, APR 19, 2024 – 09:00 AM
Peter recently appeared on Market Overtime with Oliver Renick for an interview. In their wide-ranging discussion, Peter speaks on monetary policy, the reliability of inflation data, and reasons to avoid Bitcoin.
Contrary to the popular narrative, gold’s recent rise is not because of world conflicts. Inflation is the driving force behind the metal’s price action:
“This is just the beginning of a massive re-pricing of gold, and people aren’t even buying it yet. You have central banks buying, but investors aren’t even buying gold. Retail investors, the institutions— they’re not in the market at all. They don’t even understand why gold is rising. They’re attributing it to geopolitical risks, but it’s all about inflation. The key is that the markets have the inflation story wrong. The Fed rate hikes up to five and a quarter, five and a half, have not been nearly enough to put the inflation genie back in the bottle.”
As the media and policymakers begin to question the feasibility of a 2% inflation target, their preferred measures of inflation are probably not as accurate as they should be:
“I’d say [inflation’s] at least double what the CPI is. So if the government claims inflation is two, it’s four. And when they claimed it was nine, it was probably 18. People are struggling. It’s a lousy economy. People’s real incomes have been eviscerated by inflation. They’re forced to work multiple jobs. They’re drowning in a mountain of debt, and we’re headed for a major disaster.”
Lurking under the economy’s surface are decades of residual damage from artificially low-interest rates, especially in the housing and banking sectors:
“The entire banking system is insolvent. That’s the big problem— when interest rates were kept at zero, and all these homeowners were refinancing their mortgages at 3%. The banks own all that paper. They’re insolvent now! They own all these treasuries. Thanks to the government— the Fed— the entire US banking system is insolvent. And if the Fed actually raised interest rates to an appropriate level, all the banks would fail, including all the too-big-to-fail banks.”
The omens of economic disaster remind Peter of warnings he made in the early 2000s:
“I kept warning about the mistakes the Fed was making, and the housing bubble, and the financial crisis that was going to hit when the bubble popped. People would say, ‘When, when, when?’ Well, I don’t have a date. I just know that it’s going to happen. I can’t tell you exactly when. It’s the same thing now. But a lot of things have happened now, just like they did in 2007, that indicated that the day of reckoning was getting closer.”
Pivoting to the crypto vs. gold debate, Peter argues gold’s value stems from non-monetary uses that Bitcoin lacks:
“They say, ‘Bitcoin is a store of value,’ but it doesn’t have any value. You can’t store what you don’t have. The reason gold is a store of value is I can take the gold that I have and in a hundred years, I can make a watch with it. I can conduct electricity with it. I can use it in medicine, in dentistry. Gold has a real purpose in the world. It is a commodity that is used throughout industry.”
He thinks Bitcoin’s recent highs are driven by ETF hype, perhaps a prime example of the “greater fool” theory:
“The public was dumping their gold stocks to put their money into these ETFs. But the problem is, when the people who bought these ETFs want to get out, it will be impossible. … There won’t be enough demand for the people who bought to get out. The price is going to crash. We’re going to see the biggest Bitcoin crash we’ve ever seen. … These are paper hands. They’re not diamond hands.”
Bitcoin and gold are categorically different assets, and investing in Bitcoin is a risky bet:
“Look, if you want to go in Bitcoin, take the money that you would have used to buy lottery tickets or if you’re planning a trip to Vegas, instead of playing craps or roulette, you can gamble with Bitcoin. But don’t confuse it with an investment. It’s not even a legitimate speculation. It’s just pure gambling.”
Be sure to check out Peter’s other recent interview on Fox Business, and stay tuned for Peter’s response later this week to Jerome Powell’s remarks made on Tuesday, April 16th.
END
2.Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens/…
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//
4. OTHER MAJOR GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS live from the vault
https://kinesis.money/live-from-the-vault
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES//COCOA
Cocoa Hyperinflation Ac
Accelerates As Grindings Show No Demand Destruction
FRIDAY, APR 19, 2024 – 02:40 PM
Cocoa hyperinflation is insane. The latest data from the futures market shows that cocoa prices in New York surged above the $12,000 per ton level today as the pace of processing in factories remains robust. This indicates that demand destruction has yet to emerge despite the massive multi-month parabolic price surge.
Cocoa futures surged 18% in the last two days to a record high of $12,125. Prices are up more than 190% year-to-date and are in breakout territory.
Bloomberg says the news today about grindings—where cocoa transforms into butter and powder used in candy—only dropped 2% in Europe and marginally lower in Asia for the first quarter compared with the same quarter one year ago.
John Goodwin, a senior commodity analyst at ArrowStream, said the grindings numbers are “nowhere near the deterioration we needed to end this rally,” adding, “It’s crazy how resilient those numbers were.”
In other words, despite cocoa prices skyrocketing to the moon, there has yet to be noticeable demand destruction among consumers that would derail this rally.
“The market is watching processing data to get an idea of whether the rally is starting to hurt demand and how hard it’s becoming for chocolatiers to obtain beans, though the data risks becoming a less reliable gauge of demand as shortfalls make it more difficult to source cocoa,” Bloomberg pointed out.
Paul Joules, an analyst at Rabobank, wrote in a note that grindings figures are “an indication that for now demand is holding up despite current pricing,” adding that “demand destruction will come, but clearly it’s taking longer to filter into grind data than the market was anticipating.”
Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that famed commodity trader Pierre Andurand opened a “small, long position” in cocoa futures in early March. Since then, prices have erupted. In an email, he told the media outlet that his price target is “$20,000 later this year” amid worsening continued drought and disease across West Africa, denting production at cocoa farms.
If cocoa prices rise, chocolate makers like the US Hershey Company will see demand destruction. However, this has yet to happen, and consumers are not complaining about higher prices (yet).
On Google Search, we looked at various key phrases a consumer would ask online about why prices were rising. Still, there is no search trend explosion.
However, as cocoa prices soar, the number of headlines about “chocolate prices” has hit a record high.
Perhaps Andurand’s $20,000 price target is correct. Still, we have no idea where the price must go before demand destruction strikes.
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
END
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN 7.2410
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2498
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.96 PTS OR 0.29%
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 161.73 PTS OR 0.99%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 1011.35 OR .266%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 105.93 EURO RISES TO 1.0649 UP 6 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +.841 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 154.52/JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN:DOWN/ OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.4525***/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.845* /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.272…**
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.407
3j Gold at $2373.25 silver at: 28.15 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 50 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 93.27//
3m oil into the 82 dollar handle for WTI and 86 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 154.32// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.841% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9086 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9674 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.577 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.674 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.947 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.60…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: DOWN 0 BASIS PTS AT 4.240
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge
Futures Reverse All Losses, Oil Slides After Iran Plays Down Israeli Attacks, Signals No Retaliation
FRIDAY, APR 19, 2024 – 08:05 AM
While US futures are still modestly in the red, they are not only well off the worst overnight levels, but they are almost unchanged since yesterday’s close following a performative Israeli retaliation. which followed a performative Iranian attack, which appears to be the end of the story. For those who missed it, early on Friday local time, explosions echoed over an Iranian city on Friday in what sources described as an Israeli attack, but Tehran played down the incident and indicated it had no plans for retaliation – a response that appeared gauged towards averting region-wide war. The limited scale of the attack and Iran’s muted response both appeared to signal a successful effort by diplomats who have been working round the clock to avert all-out war since an Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel last Saturday. And so, after a whole lot of nothing overnight, as of 730am, S&P futures are practically unchanged at 5,045, Brent is actually lower compared to Thursday’s close after briefly rising above $90 earlier, gold is unchanged, bonds are modestly firmer though have pared the majority of the overnight advances, and bitcoin is higher after aggressively dumping late on Thursday. There is nothing of significance on today’s calendar.
Premarket, megacap tech are mostly lower: TSLA -1.8%, NVDA -1.1%, AMZN -95bp, META -91bp. NFLX tumbled fall 6.6% after the streaming-video company reported its first-quarter earnings. While the results were better than expected, with customer additions especially strong, its second-quarter revenue forecast was a slight disappointment. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- First Solar shares gain 1.8% after an upgrade to overweight at Wells Fargo.
- Intuitive Surgical shares climb 2.2% after the medical equipment manufacturer reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- ON Semi shares slip 3.1% after a downgrade to underperform at BNPP Exane.
- Paramount shares jump 11% as Apollo Global and Sony are said to be considering a joint offer for the media company.
- Shopify advances 3.2% after the e-commerce company was upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley, which said upmarket share gains “support confidence in the durability of growth against tempered consumer-spending expectations.”
The latest fake escalation cap a dismal week for markets after solid economic readings and hawkish Fedspeak that have overturned Powell’s December pivot and have forced investors to revise the timing of a keenly anticipated pivot to easier policy and the scale of potential rate cuts.
“With inflation sticky, central banks don’t have the option to look through spikes in oil prices, should they happen,” said Rajeev De Mello, a global macro portfolio manager at GAMA Asset Management. “They will have to revert to higher for longer rates which at this stage will be a shock to all markets.”
The latest the spook the market was NY Fed President John Williams who said while it isn’t his baseline expectation, even a rate hike is possible if warranted. His Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic said he doesn’t think it will be appropriate to ease until toward the end of 2024. The Fed may hold rates steady all year, Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari told Fox News Channel.
Meanwhile, on the geopolitical front, an Iranian military official signaled Tehran doesn’t feel compelled to react to the blasts which US officials say were caused by Israeli strikes, with semi-official Mehr agency quoting Army Commander-in-Chief Abdolrahim Mousavi saying Tehran has already reacted to Israeli threats. Despite Friday’s moves to allay fears of a wider war in the Mideast, the events are unsettling and will keep investors from taking bold bets, according to Michael Brown, strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. in London.
“No one will want to be short of crude and the havens ahead of the weekend,” he said. “From a risk-management perspective you can’t say definitively that geopolitical risk is done and dusted. So we may see another bout of de-risking. Ultimately it’s a case of people being reluctant to take on too much exposure.”
Europe’s Stoxx 600 is down 0.4%, but it too reversed most of the overnight losses. The food, beverage and tobacco sub-index leads gains whlie retail stocks decline the most. In company news, L’Oreal surged after better-than-expected quarterly sales. Here are the most notable European movers:
- L’Oreal (OR FP +4.3%) rises after the cosmetics maker’s like-for-like sales beat in the first quarter, quelling worries over a slowdown in the beauty market
- Royal Unibrew (RBREW DC +12%) soars after the brewer reported preliminary net revenue and Ebit that came ahead of consensus expectations
- Warehouses De Pauw (WDP BB +4.2%) rises after releasing 1Q earnings, with Oddo BHF seeing results broadly in line with expectations
- Sodexo (SW FP +1.9%) advances after the food services firm reported an organic revenue growth beat for the first half and raised its sales growth guidance
- Suess MicroTec (SMHN GY +4.4%) gains after Stifel upgraded its view on the semiconductor equipment maker to buy on its strong preliminary first-quarter
- Volvo (VOLVB SS -4.6%) falls after holder Geely sells the entirety of its class B shares in the truckmaker. Kepler Cheuvreux says the move is not much of a surprise
- Man Group (EMG LN -5.3%) falls after first quarter results showed net outflows of $1.6 billion in the period, mainly from the hedge fund firm’s alternative money pools
- Sartorius Stedim (DIM FP -4.8%) drops following results that disappointed investors. Intron Health cut its price target to the lowest among analysts tracked by Bloomberg
- EssilorLuxottica (EL FP -1.5%) falls after the glasses manufacturer reported revenue for the first quarter broadly in line with market expectations
- Schneider Electric (SU FP -2.6%) falls after announcing discussions with Bentley Systems on a potential strategic transaction. Oddo says it would be a good fit, but flags some questions surrounding the valuation
- Eurocash (EUR PW -4.8%) drops as the food retailer and wholesaler reported a 16% Ebitda deterioration in 1Q due to higher wages and a price war between discounters
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed while the Swiss franc remains the best performer among the G-10’s, rising 0.4% versus the greenback. The pound gains 0.1% with little reaction shown to weaker-than-expected UK retail sales data.
In rates, treasuries remain richer across the curve after paring the Asia-session advance sparked by reports Israel launched retaliatory strike on Iran. Yields lower by 4bp to 6bp as US trading gets under way, back toward middle of day’s range. US 10-year yields around 4.58% after briefly dropping below 4.50% during Asia session; inverted 2s10s spread remains near lows of the day as intermediates outperform, flatter by around 2bp. Fed rate-cut expectations edged higher, with OIS pricing in 41bp of easing by year-end vs 38bp at Thursday’s close. Treasury coupon auctions next week — final ones of the February-to-April financing quarter — include 2-, 5- and 7-year notes Tuesday to Thursday.
In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are down ~1% near $82/bbl after erasing a more than 4% surge above $86/bbl as media in both countries appeared to downplay the severity of the incident. Gold is unchanged around $2377.
Bitcoin rises 2% ahead of the halving event expected later Friday.
US economic data slate empty for the session; Fed speakers include Goolsbee at 10:30am, and Fed releases Financial Stability Report at 4pm.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 5,024.25
- MXAP down 1.7% to 167.50
- MXAPJ down 1.6% to 514.79
- Nikkei down 2.7% to 37,068.35
- Topix down 1.9% to 2,626.32
- Hang Seng Index down 1.0% to 16,224.14
- Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,065.26
- Sensex up 0.7% to 73,010.87
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.0% to 7,567.28
- Kospi down 1.6% to 2,591.86
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 496.11
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.47%
- Euro little changed at $1.0647
- Brent Futures little changed at $87.12/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.1% to $2,382.51
- US Dollar Index little changed at 106.10
Top Overnight News
- Israel launched a retaliatory strike on Iran less than a week after Tehran’s rocket and drone barrage, according to two US officials. Iran downplayed the incident and said an attack by Israeli drones failed. The IAEA said no nuclear sites were damaged. Iran said it has no plans to retaliate immediately. BBG
- China ordered Apple to remove some of the world’s most popular chat messaging apps from its app store in the country, the latest example of censorship demands on the iPhone seller in the company’s second-biggest market. “We are obligated to follow the laws in the countries where we operate, even when we disagree,” an Apple spokesperson said. WSJ
- China to impose increased fees on imports of propionic acid from the US, a move that comes just days after Biden called for higher tariffs on Chinese steel/aluminum imports. WSJ
- Japan’s national CPI undershoots the Street in Mar, coming in at +2.9% (ex-food/energy) vs. the Street’s +3% forecast (and down from +3.2% in Feb). RTRS
- Raphael Bostic reiterated his view that the Fed shouldn’t lower rates until closer to the end of the year, while Neel Kashkari raised the prospect of holding all year. BBG
- A full panel of 12 jurors has now been selected to decide Donald Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan, the first for a former American president and a crucial challenge to his bid to regain the Oval Office. Several more alternate jurors still need to be chosen, but the judge overseeing the case indicated that opening statements could begin on Monday. NYT
- NVDA is the subject of a somewhat cautious cover story in Barron’s, with the article focused on the intense competition facing the company, from both 3rd parties (like AMD) and some of its largest customers. Barron’s
- US bank reserves fell by $286 billion in the week through Wednesday — the largest drop in two years — as Americans paid income tax, Fed data show. Total holdings in the banking system were $3.33 trillion, a level Fed officials weighing the path for QT may characterize as abundant, though reserves are pushing nearer to scarcity. BBG
- Tesla recalled 3,878 Cybertrucks, an NHTSA notice showed. It said the accelerator pedal pad may dislodge and become trapped, causing the vehicle to accelerate unintentionally and increasing the risk of a crash. BBG
Earnings
- Netflix Inc (NFLX) Q1 2024 (USD): EPS 5.28 (exp. 4.52), Revenue 9.37bln (exp. 9.28bln), Q1 Subscriber Additions 9.33mln (exp. 5.11mln). Guides Q2 EPS USD 4.68 (exp. 4.54). Guides Q2 revenue USD 9.49bln (exp. 9.51bln). Guides Q2 Subscriber Additions to be lower in Q2 vs Q1 due to typical seasonality (exp. 3.51mln). Guides Q2 operating margin 26.6% (exp. 25.4%).Will stop reporting quarterly member ship number and ARM starting from Q1 2025 earnings. Shares -6.1% pre-market
- L’Oreal shares gained as much as 4.2% in the European session after strong results and making note of strong growth in China.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were lower across the board as the initial tech-related selling stemming from Wall St was exacerbated by reports of explosions in Iran following an Israeli operation although stocks are off today’s worst levels as Iran downplayed and later denied the attack. ASX 200 was pressured with losses led by underperformance in tech and amid the bout of geopolitical-related turmoil. Nikkei 225 suffered intraday losses of around 3% and briefly dipped beneath the 37,000 level.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were lower but with losses only mild compared to the regional counterparts
Top Asian News
- BoJ Governor Ueda said there is a chance weak Yen may affect trend inflation and if so, could lead to a policy shift.
- Nissan (7201 JT) downgrades guidance: revises 2023/24 forecasts (JPY): Net 370bln (prev. 390bln), Operating 530bln (prev. 620bln); revision lower due to lower sales volume from and various cost reliefs made to suppliers e.g. inflation & other factors.
- Japanese Cabinet Secretary Hayashi says continue to closely monitor impact from oil prices on Japanese economy with a sense of urgency.
- South Korean regulator chief says will closely monitor markets and prepare to deploy market stabilising measures as needed
European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.6%) are entirely in the red, with sentiment hit after Israel conducted an operation against Iran on a military airbase near Isfahan; though Iran later downplayed the attack, which helped to lift sentiment off worst levels, with contracts continuing to pare losses in otherwise quiet newsflow. European sectors hold a strong negative tilt; Industrials is found at the foot of the pile, with Schneider Electric (-1.9%) leading the losses. Autos are also lagging, after Nissan downgraded its guidance citing lower sales volume. US Equity Futures (ES -0.6%, NQ -0.8%, RTY 0.7%) are entirely in the red, though very much off worst levels seen overnight, sparked by the Israeli attacks on Iran. As for stock specifics, Netflix (-6.1%) is lower in the pre-market despite reporting strong headline metrics; however, the Co’s Q2 guidance fell short of expectations.
Top European News
- ECB’s Vujcic said so far FX market has been very calm about the risk of Fed-ECB divergence.
- ECB’s Kazaks says it is too soon to declare victory on inflation, economy isn’t strong by confidence is improving. ECB takes the Fed into account.
- German government expects GDP to grow 0.3% in 2024 (prev. forecast of 0.2%), according to Reuters sources; sees inflation at 2.4% (prev. 2.8%).
- US President Biden weighs more than USD 1bln in new arms for Israel; Considering supply tank shells, mortars and vehicles, via WSJ
FX
- USD is mixed vs peers, with the Dollar softer against safe-havens JPY and CHF but out-muscling risk-sensitive AUD and NZD. DXY went as high as 106.35 before scaling back gains.
- EUR is firmer vs. the USD after recovering geopolitically-inspired losses overnight which dragged the pair to a 1.0611 trough; currently off lows at 1.065.
- Yen slightly firmer vs. the USD despite softer-than-expected Japanese inflation metrics overnight. Safe-haven status is likely playing a role here but ultimately the pair remains on a 154 handle after delving as low as 153.60.
- Antipodeans are both lower vs. the USD and suffering in the current risk environment. AUD/USD printed a fresh YTD trough at 0.6362, though has since pared.
- CBRT Survey: End 2024 CPI 44.16% (prev. 44.19%), 12-month CPI 35.17% (prev. 36.7%), 2024 GDP 3.3% (prev. 3.3%), end-2024 USD/TRY 40.0098 (prev. 40.5344). 12-month Repo Rate 38.18% (prev. 36.96%)
Fixed Income
- USTs have pulled back from overnight geopolitics-induced highs of 108-22+ with newsflow otherwise limited and the docket sparse as we approach the Fed blackout. USTs climbed over 20 ticks during the initial reporting of an Israel strike on Iran, before peaking and beginning to pullback as Iran downplayed the attacks.
- Gilts gapped higher by 20 ticks as the benchmark reacted to overnight developments, though USTs had already pared much of their move by this point hence the somewhat modest open. Further dovish-impetus drawn from another broadly unchanged UK Retail Sales M/M print. Gilts currently around the mid-point of 96.68-97.01 parameters.
- Bund price action has mimicked that of USTs, with little regional catalysts to spark a reaction. Currently just into the green and at the mid-point of the week’s 130.97-132.55 range with the 10yr yield similarly holding a few bps shy of the 2.50% mark.
Commodities
- Brent futures rose as much as 4.2% on fears nuclear sites in Iran have been targeted, although as details emerged, the event proved to be much milder than initially reported, and thus crude future backtracked most of the upside. Currently higher by USD 0.50/bbl intraday, with Brent holding around USD 87.60/bbl.
- Precious metals are mixed trade across precious metals with spot gold well off best levels amid an unwind of the geopolitical risk premium after Israel’s strike on Iran was found to be limited in nature whilst Iran has no immediate plans to retaliate.
- Base metals are mostly firmer amid the pullback in the Dollar and recovery in risk after Israel’s attack on Iran was seemingly non-escalatory. Meanwhile, mainland Chinese markets were somewhat unfazed by geopolitics overnight vs regional peers.
- Commerzbank says for H2, expects Brent price level of USD 90-95/bbl; raises copper, sees year-end USD 9.8k/ton (prev. USD 9.2k).
Geopolitics: Middle East
- IAEA confirms that there was no damage to Iranian nuclear facilities.
- Senior Iranian Official says there is no plan for an immediate retaliation; no clarification on who is behind the incident.
- Israel’s Channel 12 says “Army and security services estimate that the attack on Iran is over, but Israel maintains high alert”, via Al Jazeera Breaking.
- “Jerusalem Post: Israeli planes fired long-range missiles targeting a facility belonging to Iranian forces in Isfahan”, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Israel conducted an operation against Iran which an Iranian official said was on a military airbase near Isfahan. However, Iran’s press TV later cited informed sources denying reports of a foreign attack in Iranian cities including Isfahan, according to Reuters.
- Initial reports on social media platform X noted explosions were heard near the city of Isfahan and Natanz in Central Iran where there are nuclear facilities, while Iranian state TV noted ‘big explosions’ were heard near Isfahan and there were also reports of Israeli strikes in southern Syria and Israeli warplane activity in Iraq. Furthermore, Iran International noted several flights were diverted over the Iranian airspace amid reports of an Israeli attack against a site in Iran and it was also reported that Israel told the US on Thursday it planned to conduct its response against Iran in 24-48 hours. However, it was later reported the explosions in Isfahan were drones being shot down and there were no ground explosions, while a US official noted that Israel conducted a strike on Iran but did not target nuclear facilities.
- Iran’s senior commander Mihandoust said ‘noise heard in Isfahan overnight was caused by air defence targeting one suspicious object’, while he added ‘there was no damage caused’, according to Reuters.
- Iranian Foreign Minister told the UN Security Council that Iran “had no other option” but to attack Israel, while he added Iran’s defence and countermeasures have concluded and Israel must be compelled to stop any further military adventurism against their interests. Furthermore, he warned if there is any use of force by Israel or violation of Iran’s sovereignty, Iran’s response will be decisive and proper to make Israel regret its actions.
- Senior Iranian Guards Commander said Tehran could review its nuclear doctrine and that nuclear sites are in “total security”, while he added “Our hands are on the trigger, Israel’s nuclear facilities have been identified”. Furthermore, he said they are ready to launch powerful missiles to destroy designated targets in Israel and warned if Israel dares to hit their nuclear sites, they will surely hit back.
- US blocked the Palestinian request for full UN membership, while Israel’s Foreign Minister said the ‘shameful proposal’ was rejected at the UN Security Council and he commended the US for vetoing the proposal. It was also reported that the Palestinian Presidency said it condemns the US veto of full Palestinian membership and Egypt said it regrets the inability of the UN Security Council to pass a resolution enabling Palestine to become a full member of the UN.
Geopolitics: Other
- Ukrainian PM Shmyhal said he welcomes progress on USD 61bln in US aid to Ukraine and is optimistic that the aid bill will soon be supported in the House, while he had important discussions with top US officials about using frozen Russian assets to benefit Ukraine and expect results this year.
- German Chancellor Scholz said NATO partners could deliver a further six patriot systems to Ukraine and Germany at the front.
- FBI Director Wray said Chinese government-linked hackers have burrowed into US critical infrastructure and are waiting for the right moment to deal a devastating blow, according to Reuters.
- North Korea’s Deputy Foreign Minister held talks with Belarusian counterparts to improve cooperation, according to KCNA.
US Event Calendar
- Nothing scheduled
Central bank speakers
- 10:30: Fed’s Goolsbee Participates in Q&A
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets are reacting to new developments in the Middle East overnight, as US officials have said that Israel had launched a missile strike against Iran . The news has raised fears that the conflict will escalate further, particularly since Iran had said they would respond to any attack, with the Iranian foreign minister having said they would “give a decisive and proper response” to any further military moves. The full details are still coming through, but Iran’s official news agency IRNA reported that they had activated air defence systems, and that flights in Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz had been suspended. And the New York Times reported three Iranian officials had said a strike hit a military air base near Isfahan early this morning.
In response, Brent crude oil prices (+2.04%) have spiked up to $88.89/bbl, although they have come down from their peak of $90.75/bbl immediately after the news came through. More broadly, the effects have been clear across global markets, and futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.85% this morning, which would put the index on track for a 6th consecutive decline for the first time since October 2022. In the meantime, investors have moved into safe havens, and the 10yr Treasury yield is down -8.0bps this morning to 4.55%, whilst gold prices are up +0.15%. Asian equities have also seen a decisive move lower overnight, including the Nikkei (-2.37%), the KOSPI (-1.63%), the Hang Seng (-1.23%), the CSI 300 (-0.88%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.40%).
Before all that, markets followed a familiar pattern yesterday, with an initial stabilisation giving away to further losses once again. That meant the S&P 500 (-0.22%) lost ground for a 5th consecutive session, which hasn’t happened since last October, and the NASDAQ (-0.52%) fell to its lowest level in almost two months. Moreover, the latest declines mean that the S&P 500 is on track to post a third consecutive weekly decline for the first time since September, and the NASDAQ is on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline for the first time since December 2022. So this marks a big shift from the rapid rally we saw from November up to the end of March, and it now leaves the S&P 500 down -4.63% from its recent peak, even before any moves today that futures are currently indicating.
The selloff wasn’t confined to equities, and before the geopolitical developments overnight, sovereign bonds also fell thanks to strong US data, which led investors to become increasingly sceptical the Fed would cut rates this year. For instance, the weekly initial jobless claims were at 212k (vs. 215k expected) over the week ending April 13, offering further evidence that the labour market was still resilient. Moreover, the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook moved up to 15.5 in April (vs. 2.0 expected), which is the strongest reading in two years.
That scepticism about rate cuts got added support by comments from New York Fed President Williams, who said “I definitely don’t feel urgency to cut interest rates.” In response to a question, he commented that another rate hike wasn’t his baseline but that “if the data are telling us that we would need higher interest rates to achieve our goals, then we would obviously want to do that”. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that “I’m comfortable being patient”, reiterating his view that the Fed “won’t be in a position to reduce our rates until toward the end of the year”. In fact by the close, the amount of cuts priced in by the December meeting fell to 39bps, which is the fewest so far this year, although that’s since risen overnight to 43bps. And in turn, that led to a decent selloff for US Treasuries, with the 10yr yield (+4.6bps) back up to 4.63%, whilst the 2yr yield (+5.4bps) ended the day at 4.99%.
Over at the ECB however, several speakers continued to sound increasingly confident about a June cut. For instance, Finnish central bank governor Rehn said “Provided that we are confident that inflation will continue converging to our 2% target in a sustained way, the time will be ripe in June to start easing the monetary policy stance and to cut rates”. Austria’s Holzmann, one of the most hawkish ECB members, said that “If inflation develops as expected and, above all, the geopolitical problems don’t worsen, there will likely be a majority for an interest rate cut in June”. We also got some hints on what the ECB approach might look like beyond June. Lithuania’s Simkus considered about three rates cut this year as a baseline, while Latvia’s Kazaks saw “no rush in kind of further pace of rate cuts”. By contrast, France’s Villeroy suggested that consecutive rate cuts may be in play, noting that “When we say meeting by meeting, it can be at each following meeting — I don’t think, for example, that we should concentrate our rate cuts at quarterly meetings when we have a new forecast.” All this meant European sovereign bonds saw a smaller rise in yields than US Treasuries, with those on 10yr bunds (+3.1bps), OATs (+2.5bps) and BTPs (+1.4bps) all moving higher.
That backdrop meant that equities had another tough session. Initially they had looked to post a better performance, and the S&P 500 had been up by +0.69% intraday. But that began to reverse around the European close, leaving the index down -0.22%, in its 5th consecutive decline. Tech stocks led the underperformance again, and the Magnificent 7 (-0.49%) lost further ground, led by a -3.55% decline for Tesla . That said, banks (+0.99%) and communication services (+0.66%) outperformed, and over in Europe, which closed earlier in the day, the STOXX 600 advanced +0.24%.
In terms of yesterday’s other data, US existing home sales fell to an annualised rate of 4.19m in March (vs. 4.20m expected). Otherwise, the Conference Board’s Leading Index was down -0.3% in March (vs. -0.1% expected), which took the index down to its lowest level since May 2020. Overnight, we’ve also got the news that Japanese inflation fell to +2.7% in March (vs. +2.8% expected).
To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden, the BoE’s Mann, the Fed’s Goolsbee, and the ECB’s Nagel. Otherwise, data releases include UK retail sales and German PPI for March.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
Sentiment hit after Israel strikes Iran, though has pared as Iran downplays the attacks; Crude now lower – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, APR 19, 2024 – 06:16 AM
- Equities are entirely in the red, though well off worst levels following geopolitical events overnight
- Israel conducted an operation against Iran which an Iranian official said was on a military airbase near Isfahan. However, Iran’s Press TV later denied reports of a foreign attack in Iranian cities including Isfahan
- Dollar lower and around 106.00, safe-haven status benefits CHF, whilst Antipodeans lag
- Bonds are modestly firmer, though has pared the majority of the overnight advances
- Crude soared overnight after Israel attacked an Iranian military base, though gave back gains after Iran downplayed the events
- Looking ahead, BoE’s Ramsden & Fed’s Goolsbee, Earnings from SLB, American Express & PG
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.6%) are entirely in the red, with sentiment hit after Israel conducted an operation against Iran on a military airbase near Isfahan; though Iran later downplayed the attack, which helped to lift sentiment off worst levels, with contracts continuing to pare losses in otherwise quiet newsflow.
- European sectors hold a strong negative tilt; Industrials is found at the foot of the pile, with Schneider Electric (-1.9%) leading the losses. Autos are also lagging, after Nissan downgraded its guidance citing lower sales volume.
- US Equity Futures (ES -0.6%, NQ -0.8%, RTY 0.7%) are entirely in the red, though very much off worst levels seen overnight, sparked by the Israeli attacks on Iran. As for stock specifics, Netflix (-6.1%) is lower in the pre-market despite reporting strong headline metrics; however, the Co’s Q2 guidance fell short of expectations.
- Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow.
- Click here for more details.
FX
- USD is mixed vs peers, with the Dollar softer against safe-havens JPY and CHF but out-muscling risk-sensitive AUD and NZD. DXY went as high as 106.35 before scaling back gains.
- EUR is firmer vs. the USD after recovering geopolitically-inspired losses overnight which dragged the pair to a 1.0611 trough; currently off lows at 1.065.
- Yen slightly firmer vs. the USD despite softer-than-expected Japanese inflation metrics overnight. Safe-haven status is likely playing a role here but ultimately the pair remains on a 154 handle after delving as low as 153.60.
- Antipodeans are both lower vs. the USD and suffering in the current risk environment. AUD/USD printed a fresh YTD trough at 0.6362, though has since pared.
- CBRT Survey: End 2024 CPI 44.16% (prev. 44.19%), 12-month CPI 35.17% (prev. 36.7%), 2024 GDP 3.3% (prev. 3.3%), end-2024 USD/TRY 40.0098 (prev. 40.5344). 12-month Repo Rate 38.18% (prev. 36.96%)
- Click here for more details.
FIXED INCOME
- USTs have pulled back from overnight geopolitics-induced highs of 108-22+ with newsflow otherwise limited and the docket sparse as we approach the Fed blackout. USTs climbed over 20 ticks during the initial reporting of an Israel strike on Iran, before peaking and beginning to pullback as Iran downplayed the attacks.
- Gilts gapped higher by 20 ticks as the benchmark reacted to overnight developments, though USTs had already pared much of their move by this point hence the somewhat modest open. Further dovish-impetus drawn from another broadly unchanged UK Retail Sales M/M print. Gilts currently around the mid-point of 96.68-97.01 parameters.
- Bund price action has mimicked that of USTs, with little regional catalysts to spark a reaction. Currently just into the green and at the mid-point of the week’s 130.97-132.55 range with the 10yr yield similarly holding a few bps shy of the 2.50% mark.
- Click here for more details.
COMMODITIES
- Brent futures rose as much as 4.2% on fears nuclear sites in Iran have been targeted, although as details emerged, the event proved to be much milder than initially reported, and thus crude future backtracked most of the upside. Currently higher by USD 0.50/bbl intraday, with Brent holding around USD 87.60/bbl.
- Precious metals are mixed trade across precious metals with spot gold well off best levels amid an unwind of the geopolitical risk premium after Israel’s strike on Iran was found to be limited in nature whilst Iran has no immediate plans to retaliate.
- Base metals are mostly firmer amid the pullback in the Dollar and recovery in risk after Israel’s attack on Iran was seemingly non-escalatory. Meanwhile, mainland Chinese markets were somewhat unfazed by geopolitics overnight vs regional peers.
- Commerzbank says for H2, expects Brent price level of USD 90-95/bbl; raises copper, sees year-end USD 9.8k/ton (prev. USD 9.2k).
- Click here for more details.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- ECB’s Vujcic said so far FX market has been very calm about the risk of Fed-ECB divergence.
- ECB’s Kazaks says it is too soon to declare victory on inflation, economy isn’t strong by confidence is improving. ECB takes the Fed into account.
- German government expects GDP to grow 0.3% in 2024 (prev. forecast of 0.2%), according to Reuters sources; sees inflation at 2.4% (prev. 2.8%).
- US President Biden weighs more than USD 1bln in new arms for Israel; Considering supply tank shells, mortars and vehicles, via WSJ
DATA RECAP
- UK Retail Sales MM (Mar) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.0%, Rev. 0.1%); YY (Mar) 0.8% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. -0.4%, Rev. -0.3%)
- German Producer Prices MM (Mar) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.4%); YY (Mar) -2.9% vs. Exp. -3.2% (Prev. -4.1%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed’s Bostic (voter) said inflation is too high and they still have a ways to go on inflation, while the pathway to 2% will be slower than people expect and bumpy. Bostic added inflation is going where the Fed wants it to go but it is slow and he reiterated they won’t be able to cut rates until towards the end of the year. Bostic separately commented that the Fed is on its path to the inflation target and he is grateful progress is being made on inflation and that the economy continues to grow. Bostic also noted that policy is currently restrictive and the Fed can be patient, while he reiterated that he sees one cut this year.
- Fed’s Kashkari (non-voter) said once inflation is heading back to the 2% target, the Fed can cut rates but added that they could potentially wait until 2025 to cut rates, while he stated they need to be patient until they are convinced that inflation is falling and noted the resilience of the housing market has been a surprise, according to a Fox News interview.
EARNINGS
- Netflix Inc (NFLX) Q1 2024 (USD): EPS 5.28 (exp. 4.52), Revenue 9.37bln (exp. 9.28bln), Q1 Subscriber Additions 9.33mln (exp. 5.11mln). Guides Q2 EPS USD 4.68 (exp. 4.54). Guides Q2 revenue USD 9.49bln (exp. 9.51bln). Guides Q2 Subscriber Additions to be lower in Q2 vs Q1 due to typical seasonality (exp. 3.51mln). Guides Q2 operating margin 26.6% (exp. 25.4%).Will stop reporting quarterly member ship number and ARM starting from Q1 2025 earnings. Shares -6.1% pre-market
- L’Oreal shares gained as much as 4.2% in the European session after strong results and making note of strong growth in China.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST – EUROPEAN MORNING
- IAEA confirms that there was no damage to Iranian nuclear facilities.
- Senior Iranian Official says there is no plan for an immediate retaliation; no clarification on who is behind the incident.
- Israel’s Channel 12 says “Army and security services estimate that the attack on Iran is over, but Israel maintains high alert”, via Al Jazeera Breaking.
- “Jerusalem Post: Israeli planes fired long-range missiles targeting a facility belonging to Iranian forces in Isfahan”, according to Sky News Arabia.
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel conducted an operation against Iran which an Iranian official said was on a military airbase near Isfahan. However, Iran’s press TV later cited informed sources denying reports of a foreign attack in Iranian cities including Isfahan, according to Reuters.
- Initial reports on social media platform X noted explosions were heard near the city of Isfahan and Natanz in Central Iran where there are nuclear facilities, while Iranian state TV noted ‘big explosions’ were heard near Isfahan and there were also reports of Israeli strikes in southern Syria and Israeli warplane activity in Iraq. Furthermore, Iran International noted several flights were diverted over the Iranian airspace amid reports of an Israeli attack against a site in Iran and it was also reported that Israel told the US on Thursday it planned to conduct its response against Iran in 24-48 hours. However, it was later reported the explosions in Isfahan were drones being shot down and there were no ground explosions, while a US official noted that Israel conducted a strike on Iran but did not target nuclear facilities.
- Iran’s senior commander Mihandoust said ‘noise heard in Isfahan overnight was caused by air defence targeting one suspicious object’, while he added ‘there was no damage caused’, according to Reuters.
- Iranian Foreign Minister told the UN Security Council that Iran “had no other option” but to attack Israel, while he added Iran’s defence and countermeasures have concluded and Israel must be compelled to stop any further military adventurism against their interests. Furthermore, he warned if there is any use of force by Israel or violation of Iran’s sovereignty, Iran’s response will be decisive and proper to make Israel regret its actions.
- Senior Iranian Guards Commander said Tehran could review its nuclear doctrine and that nuclear sites are in “total security”, while he added “Our hands are on the trigger, Israel’s nuclear facilities have been identified”. Furthermore, he said they are ready to launch powerful missiles to destroy designated targets in Israel and warned if Israel dares to hit their nuclear sites, they will surely hit back.
- US blocked the Palestinian request for full UN membership, while Israel’s Foreign Minister said the ‘shameful proposal’ was rejected at the UN Security Council and he commended the US for vetoing the proposal. It was also reported that the Palestinian Presidency said it condemns the US veto of full Palestinian membership and Egypt said it regrets the inability of the UN Security Council to pass a resolution enabling Palestine to become a full member of the UN.
OTHER
- Ukrainian PM Shmyhal said he welcomes progress on USD 61bln in US aid to Ukraine and is optimistic that the aid bill will soon be supported in the House, while he had important discussions with top US officials about using frozen Russian assets to benefit Ukraine and expect results this year.
- German Chancellor Scholz said NATO partners could deliver a further six patriot systems to Ukraine and Germany at the front.
- FBI Director Wray said Chinese government-linked hackers have burrowed into US critical infrastructure and are waiting for the right moment to deal a devastating blow, according to Reuters.
- North Korea’s Deputy Foreign Minister held talks with Belarusian counterparts to improve cooperation, according to KCNA.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin back on a firmer footing and towards USD 65k, ahead of the widely anticipated “halving” expected later today/tomorrow.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were lower across the board as the initial tech-related selling stemming from Wall St was exacerbated by reports of explosions in Iran following an Israeli operation although stocks are off today’s worst levels as Iran downplayed and later denied the attack.
- ASX 200 was pressured with losses led by underperformance in tech and amid the bout of geopolitical-related turmoil.
- Nikkei 225 suffered intraday losses of around 3% and briefly dipped beneath the 37,000 level.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were lower but with losses only mild compared to the regional counterparts especially the mainland which was largely unfazed by the various geopolitical headlines and disinformation.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoJ Governor Ueda said there is a chance weak Yen may affect trend inflation and if so, could lead to a policy shift.
- Nissan (7201 JT) downgrades guidance: revises 2023/24 forecasts (JPY): Net 370bln (prev. 390bln), Operating 530bln (prev. 620bln); revision lower due to lower sales volume from and various cost reliefs made to suppliers e.g. inflation & other factors.
- Japanese Cabinet Secretary Hayashi says continue to closely monitor impact from oil prices on Japanese economy with a sense of urgency.
- South Korean regulator chief says will closely monitor markets and prepare to deploy market stabilising measures as needed
DATA RECAP
- Japanese National CPI YY (Mar) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.8%); National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Mar) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.8%); Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Mar) 2.9% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.2%)
3C ASIA AFFAIRS/
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.96 PTS OR 0.29% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 161.73 PTS OR 0.99% / Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1011.35 PTS OR 2.66% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.03%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN 7.2410//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2498 /Oil UP TO 82.28 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 86.59/ Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
// ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA/USA/APPLE
financial wars with China and uSA escalate
(zerohedge)
The Great Firewall: China Orders Apple To Remove WhatsApp, Threads From App Store
FRIDAY, APR 19, 2024 – 07:45 AM
The Cyberspace Administration of China asked Apple on Friday to remove Meta Platforms’ WhatsApp and Threads from its App Store in China due to national security concerns. Signal and Telegram—two foreign messaging apps—were also removed from the Chinese App Store. The removal of the four apps comes as elites in Washington, DC, attempt to ban Chinese app TikTok from US phones.
“We are obligated to follow the laws in the countries where we operate, even when we disagree. The Cyberspace Administration of China ordered the removal of these apps from the China storefront based on their national security concerns,” Apple said in a statement, as quoted by Bloomberg.
Apple continued, “These apps remain available for download on all other storefronts where they appear.”
These four messaging apps allow users to bypass China’s Great Firewall through virtual private networks. Beijing finds this troubling as citizens could be subjected to disinformation and misinformation content (created by foreign adversaries) that sparks social unrest or discontent with the communist regime.
Bloomberg said the orders to nuke the four apps follow a prior “cleanup program Chinese regulators initiated in 2023 that was expected to remove many defunct or unregistered apps from domestic iOS and Android stores, including local ones. In August, China asked all mobile app developers to register with the government by the end of March, or cease operating.”
Rich Bishop, co-founder and chief executive officer of AppInChina, expressed concern that Chinese consumers will now be limited to domestic apps, with only a handful of international ones. He warned that this move by Beijing could further isolate Chinese citizens from the rest of the world.
The removals come at a time when Apple is navigating a delicate balance between complying with China’s censorship-industrial complex and maintaining iPhone market share in the world’s largest handset market.
Last year, Apple was China’s top smartphone maker, commanding over 17% of the market. However, Huawei is now challenging the US brand with new phone lineups, potentially shifting the dynamics.
Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, US lawmakers are actively pursuing a bill that would force Beijing-based ByteDance to divest TikTok or face a nationwide ban from app stores. This move underscores the ongoing tech war between the US and China.
Speaker Mike Johnson plans to include the TikTok divestiture legislation in an aid package for Ukraine and Israel that can be voted on as early as Saturday.
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
SWITZERLAND
Swiss Watch Exports Crash In China & Hong Kong
FRIDAY, APR 19, 2024 – 04:15 AM
Fears of a luxury slowdown are materializing. New data from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry shows that exports of luxury timepieces tumbled the most since 2020 as demand crashed in Asia.
Swiss watch exports dropped in March. Their value fell by 16.1% compared with the same month in 2023 to 2 billion Swiss francs ($2.2 billion). Cratering demand in China and Hong Kong caused most of the decline. Weakness was reported across all six main markets.
Exports to mainland China, the second-biggest market for Swiss watches, plunged 42%, the worst decline since March 2020, when the global economy began seizing up due to government-enforced lockdowns. Shipments to Hong Kong tumbled even more, down 44%.
“The negative trend is even worse than we expected and the decline in China is really worrying and probably indicates that inventories in the region were once again too high,” Jean-Philippe Bertschy, an analyst at Vontobel in Switzerland, told Bloomberg.
Faltering demand for Swiss watches comes one day after LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, the world’s largest luxury group, controlled by the family of billionaire Bernard Arnault, reported that “uncertain geopolitical and economic environment” has weighed on luxury spending.
LVMH shares in Paris are 10.5% below the peak put in early last year.
For a broader view of global luxury stocks, the MSCI World Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods Index also shows the index well below (-21%) the peak put in at the end of 2021.
A combination of China’s slower-than-expected economic recovery and generational highs in interest rates across the Western world are some of the reasons why a global slowdown in the luxury market has materialized.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS.
ISRAEL//IRAN//SYRIA//IRAQ
Israel strikes Iran!
Alleged Israeli strikes reported in Iran
Syrian reports indicated airstrikes targeted sites belonging to the Syrian Army in the As-Suwayda and Daraa Governorates of southern Syria.
By TZVI JOFFRE
APRIL 19, 2024 03:52Updated: APRIL 19, 2024 05:58
An Israeli missile strike targeted a site in Iran early Friday morning, according to ABC News. The report came shortly after local sources reported explosions in Isfahan in central Iran, in the As-Suwayda Governorate of southern Syria, and in the Baghdad area and Babil Governorate of Iraq early Friday morning.
Videos from Isfahan appeared to show Iranian air defenses activated in the skies over the area.
The Iranian semi-official Fars News Agency reported that an explosion was heard in Qahjavarestan, east of Isfahan and near the Isfahan International Airport. Fars stressed that the cause of the explosion was unknown as of yet.
Fars and other Iranian news agencies reported that air defenses were seemingly activated near Isfahan in response to small drones.
Iranian air defenses were also activated in Tabriz in northwestern Iran on Friday morning after a suspicious object was spotted in the air, according to Fars.
According to Bloomberg News, Israeli officials notified the US on Thursday that they planned to launch a strike in the next 24-48 hours.
Reports of strikes on sites belonging to Syrian army
Syrian reports on Friday morning indicated airstrikes had also targeted sites belonging to the Syrian Army in the As-Suwayda and Daraa Governorates of southern Syria.
مراسل السويداء 24: أصوات قوية لتحليق طيران حربي في الريف الجنوبي لمحافظة #السويداء جنوب #سوريا، سبقها بدقائق اصوات ثلاث انفجارات متتالية سمع دويها في مدينة السويداء والريف الغربي.. يتبع..
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According to the local news site As-Suwayda24, the airstrikes targeted radar sites belonging to the Syrian military between Qarda and Izraa in Daraa in southern Syria.
Residents in Erbil and Mosul in Iraq reported hearing the sounds of fighter jets as well early Friday morning.
Flight trackers showed several flights headed for Iran had turned around and diverted from their planned routes, including several Emirati flights.
The Iranian Mehr News Agency reported that flights to Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz had been suspended as of Friday morning.
Shortly after the alleged Israeli missile strikes were reported, Florida Senator Marco Rubio published a post on X reading “Israel has the ability to conduct strikes against targets inside Iran without entering Iranian air space from aircraft over Syrian and Iraqi airspace.”
Israeli media reported that several senior Israeli officials were present in the Kirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv on Friday morning.
The explosions came as Israel promised to respond to a drone and missile attack conducted by Iran on Saturday night against Israel. The Iranian attack came in response to an alleged Israeli airstrike that targeted a building next to the Iranian embassy in Damascus in which Mohammad Reza Zahedi – a senior IRGC commander in charge of Iran’s operations in Syria and Lebanon – was killed.
Iranian officials had warned in recent days that any Israeli strike on Iran would be met with a strong and quick response.
This is a developing story.
END
Israeli strike on Iran ‘limited’ in scope, not targeting nuclear facilities — reports
By LAZAR BERMAN
Israel told the US that it is not targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, CNN reports, citing a senior US official.
There are several sites affiliated with Iran’s nuclear program in and around Isfahan.
CNN also quotes a US official saying the explosions in Iran are Israel’s response to Iranian attacks over the weekend. The official adds that the Israeli strikes are meant to be “limited” and would target Iranian military sites, while avoiding civilian and nuclear targets.
Fox News similarly cites “a well-placed military source” describing the strike as “limited.
END
Iran news agency reports explosions heard at Isfahan airport, says cause unknown
Iran’s Fars news agency says that explosions have been heard near the airport at the country’s central Isfahan city, but the reason is unknown.
“The cause of these sounds is still unknown, and investigations continue until the exact details of the incident are determined,” the semi-official Fars news agency says.
Several Iranian nuclear sites are located in Isfahan province, including Natanz, the centerpiece of Iran’s uranium enrichment program.
According to CNN, several flights have been diverted over Iranian airspace.
The reports come days after Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles in a retaliatory attack after a suspected Israeli strike on its embassy compound in Syria killed several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers, including two generals.
Most of the drones and missiles were downed before reaching Israel, which has vowed to respond to the Iranian attack.
end
WW3 ALERT ISRAEL JUST LAUNCHED A MASSIVE ATTACK ON IRAN AND IS RUMORED TO HAVE HIT CRITCAL NUCLEAR FACILITIES WHICH COULD CAUSE RADIATION TO LEAK OUT INTO THE WORLD 
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MattWallace888 (@Matt Wallace) posted:
WW3 ALERT
ISRAEL JUST LAUNCHED A MASSIVE ATTACK ON IRAN AND IS RUMORED TO HAVE HIT CRITCAL NUCLEAR FACILITIES WHICH COULD CAUSE RADIATION TO LEAK OUT INTO THE WORLD
ISRAEL/IRAN//EGYPT/JORDAN//SAUDI ARABIA//THIS MORNING
Israel works with Egypt and Jordan in the nuclear attack on Iran:
(Jerusalem Post)
Israeli sources to Post: ‘An eye for an eye’; not clear why Pentagon leaked info on attack
Israel will not accept responsibility for this attack for strategic reasons.
By ZVIKA KLEINAPRIL 19, 2024 08:33Updated: APRIL 19, 2024 12:16
Israeli official security and governmental sources told The Jerusalem Post on Friday: “An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth. Israel retaliated where they were attacked.”
That said, officially, Israel will not accept responsibility for this attack for strategic reasons. Sources explain that the Iranians claim it was an “explosion at a factory” because they wish to avoid escalation. Israeli sources told the Post that it’s unclear why the Pentagon disclosed to the American media that Israel was involved; they could have remained silent, they say. They could have preserved Iran’s dignity and avoided escalating the situation on their own.
At the Kirya base in Tel Aviv, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the entire security and diplomatic leadership have been present for 24 hours, coordinating with regional partners in Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.
That said, Israel does not yet accept responsibility.
In recent hours, countries in the region have conveyed messages to Israel that if Iran attacks, they are here to help.
Israel reportedly informed the US of the strike
A senior US official also confirmed this on Friday morning of the attack, stating that “We were not surprised,” while also telling Walla that Israel informed the US in advance of the strike.
A Bloomberg report said that Israeli officials notified the US on Thursday that they planned to launch a strike in the next 24-48 hours
END.
ISRAEL/IRAN
zerohedge on the above story/Friday morning
Futures Tumble, Oil And Gold Soar On Reports Of “Huge Explosions” In Central Iran, Israeli Airstrikes In Iraq And Syria
THURSDAY, APR 18, 2024 – 09:25 PM
SUMMARY:
- Iran says its nuclear facilities remain unharmed: Reuters
- Situation in Iran’s Isfahan is normal, no explosion taken place on ground: PressTV
- CNN: Two US officials say Israel indicated they would not attack nuclear targets. US didn’t “green light” this attack.
- Unconfirmed: IRGC states that Iran will target Israeli nuclear sites with counterattack.
- Iran Space Agency: “all that happened is a failed and humiliating attempt by Israel aviation” – via Sky News
- Iranian officials and outlets are claiming that all explosions heard tonight are due to interceptions and that no explosions have occurred “on the ground”
- Bloomberg: Israeli officials notified the US earlier today they planned to retaliate in the next 24-48 hours.
- Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA) tells passengers that all flights have been canceled and they should exit the airport.
- Fox News: Israeli strikes in Iran came from unmanned aircraft
- US claims IDF attacks in Iran were limited.
- Three large explosions heard in Isfahan south of Tehran, US officials confirm.
- The Natanz nuclear facility is located in Isfahan.
- Unconfirmed simultaneous explosions have also been reported in Syria and Iraq (Baghdad and Babil/Babylon province).
- Iran has established a no-fly-zone over its western region.
- Market reaction very strong: oil & gold soaring; TSY yields, crypto, and stocks tumbling.
And just like that, Israel – having once again ignored Biden’s pleadings not to escalate the already tense situation – is retaliating against Iran’s weekend strike, which was itself a retaliation against Israel bombing Iran’s embassy in Syria on April 1.
Moments ago futures dumped, oil prices spiked, and treasury yields slumped amid social media reports and Reuters headlines that there have been three “huge explosions” near the central Iran cities of Natanz (location of an Iranian nuclear power plant) and Isfahan (location of the Iranian Nuclear Technology Center which is suspected of being the center of Iran’s nuclear weapons program), as well as simultaneous explosions in Iraq and Syria, where the Israel air force appears to be targeting pro-Iranian militias.
- IRANIAN MEDIA CONFIRMS AN ISRAELI ATTACK ON IRANIAN TERRITORY
- IRANIAN STATE MEDIA IS REPORTING THAT TONIGHT’S AIRSTRIKE BY THE ISRAEL AIR FORCE MAY HAVE TARGETED THE 8TH TACTICAL AIRBASE OF THE IRANIAN AIR FORCE, WITHIN ISFAHAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, WHICH CONTAINS MULTIPLE SQUADRONS OF F-14 “TOMCAT” FIGHTER AIRCRAFT.
- ABC NEWS REPORTS THAT ISRAELI MISSILES HIT A SITE IN IRAN
- IRAN STATE MEDIA SAYS ‘NO FLY ZONE’ ESTABLISHED OVER WESTERN REGION
- IRANIAN MEDIA: 3 HUGE EXPLOSIONS WERE HEARD IN ISFAHAN, SOUTH OF TEHRAN
- JERUSALEM POST: SIMULTANEOUS EXPLOSIONS REPORTED IN IRAN, SYRIA, AND IRAQ ACCORDING TO INITIAL REPORTS
- IRAN’S FARS NEWS AGENCY SAYS EXPLOSIONS HEARD IN CENTRAL ISFAHAN AIRPORT, REASON UNKNOWN
- ISRAELI MISSILES HIT IRAN SITE, US OFFICIAL SAYS: ABC
A video of the explosions in Iran:
🚨#BREAKING : 🇮🇷💥🔔Explosions so far have been reported in the last few minutes near the Cities of Isfahan and Natanz in ⛳️ Central Iran, which both contain Significant Facilities for the Iranian Nuclear Program.
pic.twitter.com/xBPteeYA64— SHORT NEWS (@BuonJose11019) April 19, 2024
There have also been reports of drone activity over Iraq:
Unconfirmed reports of drone activity over Baghdad, Iraq. pic.twitter.com/Dp9E1i28pv— Joe Truzman (@JoeTruzman) April 19, 2024
Flights above central Iran are diverting from their designations:
Two FlyDubai flights in central #Iran are diverting from their designated flight plans. Unclear why. pic.twitter.com/8Arh1zDaiC— The Intel Crab (@IntelCrab) April 19, 2024
… as the airspace over the region is rapidly clearing:
Aerial space is rapidly clearing and being diverted. pic.twitter.com/ScWfOwsZtV— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) April 19, 2024
⚡️#BREAKING NOTAM over parts of Iran pic.twitter.com/aupFwGL2oy— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) April 19, 2024
Unconfirmed reports suggest that the Israeli airstrikes are targeting a building where a high level meeting was being held among groups supported by Iran and the IRGC:
UNCONFIRMED: Iraqi sources report that airstrikes in the capital city of Baghdad have targeted a building where a high-level meeting was being held with the presence of several groups supported by Iran and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
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UNCONFIRMED: Iraqi sources report that airstrikes in the capital city of Baghdad have targeted a building where a high-level meeting was being held with the presence of several groups supported by Iran and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.— Aleph א (@no_itsmyturn) April 19, 2024
The market reaction has been immediate, with S&P futures dumping…
…testing key CTA liquidation levels…
…and oil jumped with Brent rallying above $89 a barrel in a sudden move higher.
“Unconfirmed reports of strikes in the Middle East may suggest that worst fears have come true,” with traders having been braced for Israel’s response to Iran’s drone and missile attack, said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy for ING Groep NV in Singapore.
“If reports turn out to be true — and depending on the nature of strikes — we are moving closer towards a scenario where supply risks become a reality, and so the market will likely have to start pricing in an even larger risk premium,” he added.
… and gold surging back above $2400…
…and Treasuries are aggressively bid…
And Bitcoin repricing WW3 again…
…as traders brace for the worst, because even if Israel hopes to present a “measured” retaliation, now it’s a question of what Iran will do next.
More as we get it, until then, fear not: he is watching everything… closely.
end
IRAN/
Mysterious Iranian ‘Spy’ Ship Returns Home As Israel-Iran Conflict Worsens
FRIDAY, APR 19, 2024 – 11:05 AM
A suspected Iranian spy ship that its own government calls an “intelligence and logistics” vessel returned home this week after a three-year mis, as well as more recently lingering near Yemen for months.
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The Iranian ‘spy ship’ BEHSHAD (9167289), which had a hand in the Red Sea Crisis by assisting Houthis in launching attacks against commercial and naval vessels over the past several months, has now returned to Iran after a 3-year deployment. We were able to verify her in satellite imagery.
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The MV Behshad entered the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday and moored off Bandar Abbas, a port city located on the southern coast of Iran, on Thursday.
Several reports, including one from The Wall Street Journal in December, suggest the vessel was directly assisting Yemen’s Houthi forces with targeting commercial ships in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and the southern Red Sea.
“Iran’s paramilitary forces are providing real-time intelligence to Yemen’s Houthis that the rebels are using to direct drones and missiles to target ships passing through the Red Sea, Western and regional security officials said,” WSJ wrote in the report, citing Western intelligence sources.
In March, we pointed out that Behshad moored near the area where undersea data cables linking several continents were severed.
Behshad’s return to Iran comes as the Israel-Iran conflict deteriorated, with both countries volleying missiles and drones at each other in recent days.
“The ship is likely viewed as one of the targets Israel may hit in the future,” said Michael Horowitz, the head of intelligence at Le Beck International, a security and risk management consultancy, in a post on X.
Interesting Bloomberg report about the Iranian intelligence ship, Bershad, which has returned to #Iran since April 1 – incidently we’ve see a dip in Houthi attacks. The ship is likely viewed as one of the targets Israel may hit in the future
Iran Ship Linked to Houthi Attacks Sails Home Amid Israel Threat
Iran’s state media hasn’t commented on Behshad’s movements.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS/RAFAH
White House says Israel will take its concerns about full-scale Rafah invasion into account
The White House said the two sides then “broadened to include interagency delegations to discuss Rafah.”
By HANNAH SARISOHNAPRIL 18, 2024 23:15Updated: APRIL 18, 2024 23:27
Both the US and Israel agreed on the shared objective to see Hamas defeated in Rafah, the White House said following the US-Israel Strategic Consultative Group meeting on Thursday between US and Israeli senior defense and intelligence officials.
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan led the US side with the Israeli side led by Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer and National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi.
A statement from the White House said the discussion began in a small group format to discuss the Iran attack and the “collective efforts to further enhance Israel’s defense through advanced capabilities as well as cooperation with a broad coalition of military partners.”
Sullivan briefs Israelis on Iran sanctions
Sullivan also briefed the Israeli side on new sanctions against Iran which the White House announced earlier on Thursday.
The White House said the two sides then “broadened to include interagency delegations to discuss Rafah.”
“US participants expressed concerns with various courses of action in Rafah, and Israeli participants agreed to take these concerns into account and to have further follow up discussions between experts, overseen by the SCG,” the White House said.
The White House said the participants will meet again soon, but did not specify when.
As the meeting took place, the State Department and Pentagon both said the administration would not give the green light on any Rafah plan that did not take into account the over one million people seeking refuge there.
This holds true regardless of how – or if – Israel decides to respond to Iran for its attack, a Deputy Spokesperson for the State Department said Thursday.
END
IRAN/ISRAEL
Iran says no retaliation planned, as both sides seek distance from Isfahan attack
Ben Gvir tweets alleged reprisal was ‘lame,’ drawing complaints of endangering security by revealing origin of strike, even as Iran indicates it will look the other way
By TOI STAFF and AGENCIESToday, 12:24 p
Illustrative: A man walks past a banner depicting missiles along a street in Tehran on April 19, 2024. (AFP)
Iran has no plan for immediate retaliation against Israel, a senior Iranian official said Friday, as officials in Jerusalem indicated that an alleged drone attack on a city south of Tehran was meant to send a signal rather than cause damage.
The official also cast doubt on whether Israel was behind the attack in Isfahan, despite comments from some Israeli politicians practically accepting responsibility.
Together with a subdued response from official Iranian media organs, the senior official’s comments indicated that Tehran may be uninterested in risking war to make good on threats that it would attack Israel should it retaliate for a weekend missile and drone attack, and was seeking a way to avoid being held to the bellicose promises.
“The foreign source of the incident has not been confirmed,” the Iranian official said on condition of anonymity. “We have not received any external attack, and the discussion leans more toward infiltration than attack.”
They added that Iran has no plan to strike back immediately over the attack.
In most official comments and news reports, there was no mention of Israel and state television carried analysts and pundits who appeared dismissive about the scale.
A handout image grab made available by the Iranian state TV, the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), shows what the TV said was a live picture of the city of Isfahan early on April 19, 2024, following reports of explosions heard in the province in central Iran. (IRIB/AFP)
Shortly after midnight, “three drones were observed in the sky over Isfahan. The air defense system became active and destroyed these drones in the sky,” Iranian state TV said.
Senior army commander Siavosh Mihandoust was quoted by state TV as saying air defense systems had targeted a “suspicious object.” He said there had been no damage from the attack.
An analyst told state TV that mini drones flown by “infiltrators from inside Iran” had been shot down by air defenses in Isfahan.
In Israel, authorities were officially mum, but a number of politicians and former officials spoke out about the strike.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, a hardliner who had pushed for a forceful response to Iran’s early Sunday attack, tweeted the single word “lame!”
File – National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir at the Knesset in Jerusalem, April 15, 2024. (Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)
A Channel 12 report claimed officials in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s inner circle slammed Ben Gvir for damaging Israel’s national security, saying the far-right minister “was and remains childish and irrelevant to any discussion.”
Opposition Leader Yair Lapid also slammed Ben Gvir.
“Never has a cabinet minister so badly hurt the country’s security, image and international standing,” wrote Lapid on X. “In an unforgivable, one-word tweet Ben Gvir managed to make Israel into a laughing stock, disgracing it from Tehran to Washington.”
According to the Washington Post, citing an Israeli official, the strike had been intended to signal to Iran that Israel has the ability to reach Iran with its weapons.
File – Opposition leader Yair Lapid speaks to reporters after meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the US State Department on April 8, 2024, in Washington, DC. (Olivier Douliery/AFP)
“It’s important Iran understand that when it acts against us, we have the ability to strike any point and we can do enormous damage – we have a capable air force and the US on our side,” former national security adviser Eyal Hulata told Army Radio.
The Israeli response was thought to have been tempered by international pressure to make sure that the reply did not further escalate tensions.
Motorists drive past a billboard showing named Iranian ballistic missiles, with text in Arabic reading “the honest [person’s] promise” and in Persian “Israel is weaker than a spider’s web”, in Valiasr Square in central Tehran on April 15, 2024. (Atta Kenare/ AFP)
“Nobody wants war with Iran right now,” Netanyahu confidant Natan Eshel was quoted saying by journalist Ben Caspit. “We proved to them that we can infiltrate and strike within their borders and they weren’t able to inside ours. The messages are more important than the grandstanding. We currently have more important tasks both in Gaza and Lebanon.”
Like fellow firebrand Ben Gvir, Likud MK Tally Gotliv also appeared to spill the beans over the attack.
In a post on X, she said early Friday was “a morning to proudly hold our head up high. Israel is a strong and powerful country.” She added a prayer for the return of Israel’s “power of deterrence.”
Likud MK Tally Gotliv in the Knesset, in Jerusalem, on January 29, 2024. (Yonatan Sindel/ Flash90)
Some politicians expressed annoyance at the comments, despite several unnamed Israeli and US officials telling foreign press outlets that Israel was behind the attack.
Israel has for years operated under a strategy of plausible deniability regarding its attacks on Iranian interests in Syria, declining to take responsibility or speak publicly about specific sorties and giving Iran and its proxies an out to avoid retaliation.
The strategy has limits though. Israel has not taken responsibility for a strike on Iran’s embassy in Damascus on April 1 that killed several members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp, including a top officer. Nonetheless, Iran responded Sunday night by lobbing over 300 cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and armed drones at Israel.
Nearly the whole barrage was shot down by Israel, with help from the US, UK, France and Jordan. A small Israeli girl who was the only victim in the attack was badly injured by falling shrapnel; the targeted Nevatim air base also suffered light damage, according to Israeli officials.
Emergency and security personnel search the rubble at the site of strikes on a building annexed to the Iranian embassy in Syria’s capital Damascus, on April 1, 2024. (Louai Beshara/AFP)
“It’s good for us that the Iranians are telling this narrative, that it was drones, birds, just a field outside of Isfahan,” Zvika Haimovitch, a former commander of the IDF air defense array, told Channel 12. He said both countries were allowing each other “room for cover and denial,” which would enable the situation to de-escalate.
“It’s too early to say that it’s over,” former national security adviser Ephraim Halevy told Army Radio. “But there’s a difference between the Iranian attack and the Israeli response which is intended to send a message and not result in widespread and significant [damage].”
end
ISRAEL/IRAN
ISRAEL/IRAN/EUROPE
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH
end
ISRAEL/WEST BANK
end
IRAN/ISRAEL/USA/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
END
IRAN/USA//SANCTIONS
IRAN/IRGC/SYRIA/LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/
END
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES
COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG ISSUES
GLOBAL ISSUES//GLOBAL SALES
end
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
END
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Dr. Theresa Long, medical officer with the United States military, I know this woman, what a brilliant doctor and advocate, she spoke out prior how she was pressured & orders to falsify, cover-up
COVID mRNA technology vaccine injuries, she told the government, he bosses to fuck off, she deserves a medal and award for her bravery…she has lost lots…PRAISE to her, don’t forget her, the canary
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 18 |
‘US Military Doctor Testifies She Was Ordered by govn administration to ‘Cover Up’ Vaccine Injuries
Dr. Theresa Long, medical officer with the United States military, has testified in court that she was ordered by a superior to suppress Covid-19 vaccine injuries following the Biden regime’s mandate
end
They lied about COVID asymptomatic transmission, it NEVER was! Not one case! You fear contagion and what you cannot see, so they used this to scare you & you bought it! With the PCR manufactured fake
pandemic…it is not that COVID is OVER, COVID never was! something they did years now, maybe 2015 (Menachery & Baric) was always circulating & did impact some high risk elderly etc. with ILI
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAPR 19 |
respiratory symptoms, but these were high-risk elderly with co-morbid conditions, e.g. median age of Italians they spooked us with in January 2020 was about 84 years with 3 grave medical conditions…Italians have highest COPD globally…of course they were dying…a cold would kill them…like it kills us with the same compromised advanced age profile…but the vast majority, 95% of those who died, died not from any COVID virus or entity they cooked up for the battlefield or similar and it got out…no, it was benign, always circulating…years now, we were detecting something we knew was there…benign…they used PCR to detect something that was there…and we were immune to…and PCR cycled beyond 24 will say anything is positive…
we were also immune to it, see Diamond Princess etc…see French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle etc. that was our petri dish and it said we had no problems with whatever this was…but we pretended…
e.g. husband on Diamond Princess had illness, he died, locked in with wife in cabin for weeks, she got nothing…how come? 5 x 5 space…how come? initial legacy Wuhan infectious lethal strain?…how come? unless our immune systems saw this prior January 2020…
SLAY NEWS
Canada Ushers In WEF’s ‘Global Carbon Tax’ Agenda
The Canadian government has signed an agreement with the World Economic Forum (WEF) that will see Canada begin paying taxes to the unelected globalist organization to supposedly “fight climate change.”
READ MORE
WHO Warns of Major Surge in Cancer Cases
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that excess cancer cases are expected to continue surging, with millions more predicted over the next few years.
READ MORE
D.C’s Democrat Mayor Bills Taxpayers for Luxury Trip Listed as ‘Economic Development Visit’
Washington D.C.’s Democrat Mayor Muriel Bowser took a luxury trip to the lavish Masters golf tournament and billed taxpayers for the privilege, records show.
READ MORE
Biden Suggests Uncle Was Eaten by Cannibals in WWII, Gets Debunked by Military Records
Democrat President Joe Biden has been caught telling yet another stunning lie, this time suggesting that his uncle was eaten by cannibals during World War II.
READ MORE
Democrat ‘Sanctuary City’ Defunds Police to Spend $8 Million on Illegal Alien ‘Newcomers’
The Democrat-controlled “sanctuary city” of Denver, Colorado is defunding its police department in order to pay for illegal aliens who have entered the country illegally expecting handouts from taxpayers.
READ MORE
Biden Admin Accused of Destroying Evidence in Case That Could Impact Trump
Democrat President Joe Biden’s administration has been hit with a lawsuit that accuses federal officials of destroying evidence.
READ MORE
SCOTUS Justice Gorsuch Grills Biden DOJ over Extreme Jan 6 Sentences for ‘Mostly Peaceful Protests’
Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch demanded answers from Democrat President Joe Biden’s Department of Justice (DOJ) over the extreme sentences handed down to Jan. 6 defendants.
READ MORE
Biden Initiated ‘Over 200 Actions Deliberately Designed to Make it Harder to Produce Energy in America,’ Report Shows
A watchdog report has revealed that Democrat President Joe Biden has initiated “over 200 actions” that are “deliberately designed” to send energy production abroad by creating severe restrictions in America.
READ MORE
Arrest Warrant Issued for Pennsylvania Democrat Kevin Boyle
An arrest warrant has been issued for Pennsylvania Democrat State Rep. Kevin Boyle, according to police.
READ MORE
Pro-Hamas Protests Could ‘Escalate’ into ‘More Extreme’ ‘Summer of Protests’ Ahead of Elections, Report Warns
The corporate media is warning that nationwide pro-Hamas protests could become more extreme ahead of the critical 2024 elections.
READ MORE
Biden Urges Johnson to ‘Move Quickly’ as Speaker Announces Vote on Foreign Aid, despite Pushback from GOP
Democrat President Joe Biden is pressuring House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to “move quickly” and unblock foreign aid to Ukraine amid growing pushback from Republicans.
READ MORE
Illegal Alien Arrested for Deadly Crash That Killed Democrat Senator’s Advisor
Police have arrested an illegal alien from Honduras over a fatal car crash in Nevada that killed a father-of-one.
READ MORE
NPR Editor Uri Berliner Resigns after Exposing Network’s Leftist Bias
The whistleblowing 25-year veteran editor of National Public Radio (NPR) has resigned from his position after exposing the taxpayer-funded network’s pervasive leftist bias.
READ MORE
end
EVOL NEWS
| LATEST NEWS: |
NEWS ADDICT
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIESBill Gates’ Weather Modification Causes Unprecedented Dubai FloodsWeather modification experiments led by billionaire Bill Gates seeking to “fight climate change” have caused unprecedented flooding in Dubai and the Gulf states.READ THE FULL REPORTPro-Vaxxer Stunned as Expert Provides Evidence Linking Covid Shots to Sudden DeathsA vaccination advocate was left stunned after being presented with evidence from a world-renowned expert showing how Covid mRNA shots have caused a global sudden death epidemic.READ THE FULL REPORTTop GOP Congressman Leads REVOLT Against House SpeakerRep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) expressed to Sirius XM’s Breitbart News Daily that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) lacks the necessary qualifications for the speakership.READ THE FULL REPORTBiden Tells Another Shocking LiePresident Joe Biden has told another shocking lie, this time claiming his grandfather was consumed by cannibals during World War II.READ THE FULL REPORTTop Senator Leaves Merrick Garland SPEECHLESS With This One QuestionSenator John Kennedy from Louisiana raised concerns during a session with Attorney General Merrick Garland regarding the expiration of the statute of limitations on alleged tax crimes committed by Hunter Biden.READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0649 UP .0006
USA/ YEN 154.52 DOWN 0.092 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2437 UP .0002
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3770 DOWN .0007 (CDN DOLLAR UP 7 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 8.96 PTS OR 0.29%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 161.73 PTS OR 0.99%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.03%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 161.73 PTS OR 0.99%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.96 PTS OR 0.29%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 1.03 %
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 1011.35 PTS OR 2.66%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2382.20
silver:$28.28
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 105.95 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.155% DOWN 0 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.865% DOWN 1 AND 2/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.308 DOWN 0 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.883 UP 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.4890 UP 1 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0661 DOWN 0.0008 or 8 basis points
USA/Japan: 154.58 UP 0.243 OR YEN IS DOWN .24 BASIS PTS
Great Britain/USA 4.3080 UP .0040 OR 4 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0017 OR 17 BASIS pts to 1.3754
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed UP ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2383
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2492)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.50 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.865…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.631% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.732 UP 3 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.984 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2383.65
SILVER AT 11;30: 28.40
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED UP 18.80 PTS OR 0.24%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 100.04 PTS OR 0.56%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 0.85 PTS OR 0.01%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 35.50 PTS OR 0.33%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 40.56PTS OR 0.12%
WTI Oil price 82.43 12: EST/
Brent Oil: 87.087 12:00 EST WEST TEXAS: 85.51
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 93.83 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 47/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.48900 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.3080 UP 4 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0655 UP .0013 OR 13 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2367 DOWN .0068 or 68 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.2680 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .843
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 154. 62 UP 0.0070//YEN DOWN 7 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3749 DOWN .0022 CDN dollar UP 22 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 83.34
Brent OIL: 87.21
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 4.623%
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS PTS to 4.714%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 0 PTS AT 4.988%
USA dollar index: 105.96 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.49 (GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 93.15 UP 0 AND 63/100 roubles
GOLD 2,391,70 3:30 PM
SILVER: 28.66 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 211.02 PTS OR 0.56%
NASDAQ DOWN 356.67 PTS OR 2.05%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.71 UP 0.71 PTS OR 3.99%
GLD: $221.03 UP .69 OR 0.31%
SLV/ $26.20 UP .34 OR 1.31%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Tech Wrecks As FedSpeak F**ks FOMO-Followers; Gold Hits New Record High
FRIDAY, APR 19, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Well, that escalated quickly…
In a week characterized by data supporting ‘no landing’ from a growth perspective and disappointment from a disinflation perspective…
Source: Bloomberg
This was reinforced by FedSpeak that was without exception – hawkish!
As they suddenly realized that all that ‘pivot’ optimism did nothing but dramatically ease financial conditions and fuck their ‘best laid plans’ for a rate-cut and soft landing…
Source: Bloomberg
Even the dove-est of the doves – Austan Goolsbee – bent the knee today:
“So far in 2024, that progress on inflation has stalled,” Goolsbee said Friday in remarks prepared for an event in Chicago.
“You never want to make too much of any one month’s data, especially inflation, which is a noisy series, but after three months of this, it can’t be dismissed.”
“Right now, it makes sense to wait and get more clarity before moving,” Goolsbee said.
And sure enough, rate-cut expectations for 2024 and 2025 have both plunged this week…
Source: Bloomberg
…and that has finally started to weigh on investors’ risk appetites (that’s a long way to catch down to reality)…
Source: Bloomberg
Most traders thought the worst was over last night as the panic-puke in futures was BTFD’d back to unchanged ahead of the cash open, but then the selling started (on Nasdaq) and never really stopped. On the day, Nasdaq was down over 2% while The Dow managed to gain 0.5%. Small Caps were almost unchanged by the end of the day with the S&P lagging…
But, all the majors ended the week red (with The Dow desperately trying to get back to even). Nasdaq was down over 5.5% on the week! S&P and Small Caps down around 3%…
Nasdaq is down for six straight days for its biggest weekly drop since Nov 2022, breaking below its 100DMA as CTA ‘sell threshold’s were crosed. Goldman’s trading desk noted:
“The NDX now pacing for its worst week in over a year (down 6 of 7 weeks) as a complicated technical backdrop (CTAs, lower retail participation, NDX now testing 100-dma, seasonality), sideways earnings revisions thus far (ASML, TSM and even Sheridan’s NFLX EPS revisions were only 1-2% last night), a tense geopolitical backdrop (overnight headlines) and elevated positioning are testing conviction into a busy week of earnings … some debate if this all ‘helps’ the set-up into FAAMG prints or if the market is just read to ‘take a breather’ and sell any good news…”
The MAG7 basket broke below its 50DMA this week – the first time since October, when The Fed ‘pivoted’ and save the world. The market cap of the MAG7 is now down over $1 Trillion from its highs a week ago…
Source: Bloomberg
AI Leaders crashed relative to firms ‘at risk from AI’, plunging to their lowest in two months…
Source: Bloomberg
Of note is that the AI Leaders are perfectly back to their prior peak in 2021 (which was driven by chip demand for crypto mining and COVID disruptions), breaking down to the 100DMA and through the medium-term uptrend…
Source: Bloomberg
Semis were slaughtered this week…
Source: Bloomberg
NVDA plunged 10% today back to two month lows, closing below its 50DMA for the first time since Nov 2023…
… now in bear market (down over 22% from its highs) and the CSCO analog doesn’t look so crazy anymore…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, amid all this carnage, banks had a decent week with WFC and MS outperforming (JPM still lagging from its drop on last Friday’s earnings)…
Source: Bloomberg
The Russell 2000, Nasdaq, and Dow are all back below their 100DMA, and the S&P 500 is pushing down towards its 100DMA (having blow thru the CTA ‘sell’ thresholds)…
Goldman’s trading desk warns, it could get worse: “CTA supply is building – our team’s work shows this group sold $25B globally this week ($9B in SPX) with next week expected to bring another $27B globally (and $10B SPX) in a flat tape scenario. Reminder the medium term threshold (aka most important) level is 4886 – less than 100 handles away from spot.”
Next week brings 43% of SPX set to report earnings highlighted by META/MSFT/GOOGL (aka $6.1T of mkt cap) reporting on Thurs night…on the macro front, key reports include 1Q GDP on Thurs & March PCE on Fri.
VIX soared this week to six-month highs, and credit markets also – finally – started to crack…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields ended the week higher, but not before plunging overnight on a flight-to-quality bid as Israeli missiles hit Iran, taking yields lower on the week. By the close of the week, the belly slightly underperformed but yields were all up by around 8-10bps….
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar rallied for the second straight week, hitting its highest since early Nov 2023 last night on the mid-east attacks before sliding back…
Source: Bloomberg
Heading into today’s ‘halving’ – likely to occur within the next few hours – Bitcoin was down, puking once again overnight on geopolitical chaos like it did last weekend, only to see buying come right back (after testing below $60,000 for the first time since early March)…
Source: Bloomberg
5.00% remains a key level for the 2Y Yield…
Source: Bloomberg
Despite two major attacks in the Middle East, oil prices ended lower for the second week in a row (well WW3 hasn’t started yet). Some knock-on effects from an evaporation of hope for demand-sponsoring rate-cuts also weighed on sentiment as WTI
Source: Bloomberg
Spot Gold prices spiked overnight on the Israel attack, pulled back, then rallied up to $2400 once again to close at the highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold closed the week at a new record high…
Source: Bloomberg
Silver soared 3% on the week to new cycle highs (its highest since Feb 2021)…
Source: Bloomberg
Silver has been broadly speaking outperforming gold in recent weeks after peaking at a gold-to-silver ratio of around 92x in January, it is ow down to 83 (still well above the 65x average since 1980… implying silver remains ‘cheap’ to gold)…
Source: Bloomberg
…and then there’s Cocoa…
Source: Bloomberg
And finally, are bank reserves at The Fed still the driving force for reality?
Source: Bloomberg
We saw the reality check from Aug-Oct last year; are we about to get another?
END
MORNING TRADING/
AFTERNOON TRADING/
II USA DATA
TUCKER CARLSON…
END
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
end
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM…
end
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
END
SWAMP STORIES
KING REPORT
| The King Report April 19, 2024 Issue 7225 | Independent View of the News |
| NY Fed President Williams remarks on Thursday morning in DCFed rate hikes haven’t caused the economy to slow too muchMonetary policy is in a good placeI don’t feel the urgency to cut ratesEventually interest rates will need to be lowerEconomic activity will determine rate cutsIf data called for high rates, the Fed would hike rates – 9:30 ETFed rate hikes are not by baseline case Israel reportedly deploys extra weapons for assumed Rafah offensive – The Guardian IDF confirms buying thousands of tents for evacuation, raising fears over long-threatened attack Israel has reportedly deployed extra artillery and armoured personnel carriers to the Gaza Strip periphery, suggesting that the military is preparing for its long-threatened ground offensive on Rafah, the only place of relative safety for at least 1.4 million displaced Palestinian civilians… https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/17/israel-reportedly-deploys-extra-weapons-for-assumed-rafah-offensive Reports state that Israel will wait until after Passover (April 30) to attack Iran. However, it appears that Israel wants to finish off Hamas before it launches retribution against Iran. PS – What about Hezbollah? The United States is pushing for a deal that presses Israel to accept Palestinian statehood in exchange for diplomatic recognition by Saudi Arabia – WSJ @Noahpinion: Half the Old Testament is about Iran fighting Israel. Geographic determinism is real… Are Iran’s Nine Lives Nearing an End? – Victor David Hanson Yet for all its loud, creepy threats, Iran is incredibly weak and vulnerable…In sum, by unleashing a terrorist war in the Middle East and targeting the Israeli homeland, Iran may wake up soon and learn Israel, or America, or both might retaliate for a half-century of its terrorist aggression… https://victorhanson.com/are-irans-nine-lives-nearing-an-end/ Israel still plans to launch Rafah assault, Netanyahu tells western diplomats… and has also suggested that Israel’s anticipated reprisal for Iran’s missile and drone salvo will be aimed at Iranian interests rather than Tehran’s proxies… https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/18/israel-still-plans-to-launch-rafah-assault-netanyahu-tells-western-diplomats Biden announces sanctions on Iran drones, steel — without hitting lucrative oil income Higher US gas prices could undermine Biden’s bid for a second term in November… https://nypost.com/2024/04/18/us-news/biden-announces-sanctions-on-iran-drones-steel-without-hitting-lucrative-oil-income/ The FT: Iran oil exports hit 6-year high as west prepares sanctions ($35bn/year) Surge in crude sales to China exposes limits of US and EU attempts to rein in Islamic republic https://www.afr.com/world/middle-east/iran-oil-exports-hit-six-year-high-as-west-considers-tougher-sanctions-20240418-p5fkyp Iran is selling 1.56m bbl/day of oil now. Under Trump, it was an estimated 200k bbl/day in 2018. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/ebb-flow-sanctions-iranian-oil-2022-02-07/ NAR: Existing-Home Sales Descended 4.3% in March (-4.1% m/m exp.; largest drop since 11/2022)Existing-home sales retreated 4.3% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million. Sales fell 3.7% from the previous year.The median existing-home sales price rose 4.8% from March 2023 to $393,500 – the ninth consecutive month of year/year price gains and the highest price ever for the month of March.The inventory of unsold existing homes grew 4.7% from one month ago to 1.11 million at the end of March, or the equivalent of 3.2 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace…Northeast climbed 4.2%… Midwest, existing-home sales retracted 1.9%… South faded 5.9% from February… In the West, existing-home sales slumped 8.2% from a month ago… https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-descended-4-3-in-march Existing Home Sales Plunged (Again) In March… But Prices Continue to Rise Existing home sales… dropping 4.3% MoM (-4.1% exp) after surging 9.5% in February… the biggest drop since Nov 2022… Sales were down almost 10% from a year earlier on an unadjusted basis… The median selling price increased 4.8% from a year ago to $393,500, the highest for any March on record… https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/existing-home-sales-plunged-again-march-prices-continue-rise @biancoresearch: Below is the number of initial filings for unemployment insurance. How is this statistically possible? Five of the last six weeks, the exact same number (212k). Effectively the same number in the last 11 weeks, except for the holiday weeks (President’s Day and Easter). [They are fake!] https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1780941852662739395 USMs traded mostly negatively during early Asian trading. At 21:47 ET, they broke higher and eventually hit a daily high of 115 6/32 at 2:20 ET. Thereafter, USMs methodically declined, in stair-step fashion, until they hit a daily low of 114 9/32 at 9:41 ET (after Williams said hike rates). ESMs traded modestly higher during early Asian trading but fell after 22:00 ET. ESMs hit a top of 5084.25 at 2:20 ET. They then steadily declined until they hit 5063.75 at 5:29 ET. After a rally to 5079.50 at 7:46 ET, ESM had an A-B-C decline that produced a low of 5050.75 (on Williams) at 9:38 ET. But traders aggressively bought the dip because: 1) They are conditioned to buy early NYSE dips; 2) There were only 2 days left to manipulate stuff and squeeze expiring April calls; 3) the meat of earning season (Fang results) was about to start; and 4) History shows that the Fed is highly reluctant to hike rates, even when they incessantly warn that it might hike rates – plus the election is ~6 months away. ESMs surged to a daily high of 5095.25 at 11:22 ET. They then sank, abetted by Bostic’s comments. Atlanta Fed President, and usual dove, Bostic remarksInflation is still too high – 12:03 ETThe Fed will not be in a position to cut rates until the end of 2024.The Fed can keep rates steady as long as labor market holds upI don’t have a recession in my outlook ESMs then sank to a daily low of 5038.50 at 14:34 ET. On the trek down, there was only one noticeable rally, a 19-handle jump from 14:12 ET to 14:23 ET. The last-hour rally took ESMs to 5061.75 at 15:51 ET. The now familiar late selling pushed ESMs down to 5045.75 at 15:55 ET. The last manipulation added 10 handles by the NYSE close. Governing Council Member Robert Holzmann remarks on ThursdayConcerned that Fed will limit ECB leeway on rate cuts – 10:26 ETIf Fed does NOT cut, can’t see 3-4 ECB cuts this yearThere will likely be a majority for a ECB June rate cutMust remain cautious after potential first rate cutECB could NOT look through potential oil price shock Positive aspects of previous session Oil and gasoline declined; someone is sitting on oil Equities rallied early in the US on conditioned buying and upward seasonal bias Negative aspects of previous session Gold rallied moderately; bonds declined moderately Fangs declined instead of rallying ahead of earnings Ambiguous aspects of previous session Can the usual suspects muster some type of upward squeeze after 4 down S&P days this week? Will other Fed officials follow Williams’ lead and mention the ‘H’ word? (Hike) First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5023.22 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5056.66; 5001.89 Google terminates 28 employees after multicity (anti-Israel) protests After a series of protests against labor conditions and the company’s contract to provide the Israeli government and military with cloud computing and artificial intelligence services… https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/18/google-terminates-28-employees-after-series-of-protests-read-the-memo.html Elon Musk confirms Tesla Cybertruck deliveries have been delayed due to potentially fatal fault: ‘We are just being very cautious’ https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13324171/Elon-Musk-confirms-accelerator-problem-delayed-Cybertruck-deliveries.html GOP @RepThomasMassie: Unprecedented: Speaker Johnson plans to pass the rule for the $100 billion foreign aid package using Democrats on the Rules Committee. Is he working for Democrats or Republicans now? This is the Uniparty “reveal.” House Freedom Caucus @freedomcaucus: The Speaker is about to use Democrats to ram his #AmericaLast foreign wars package (w/ zero border security) thru the Rules Committee over opposition by @chiproytx, @RepThomasMassie & @RepRalphNorman. A Speaker has NEVER used the minority to steamroll his own party in Rules. Mike Johnson betrays border security for more foreign aid The War Party gets what it wants, the appropriators spend what they want, the latest tax bill always passes… Johnson presented “two essential prerequisites: security at our border, and critical answers regarding the funds requested.”… in poll after poll, from New Mexico to Massachusetts, illegal immigration is voters’ top concern… So, what changed?… Iran’s attack on Israel… continued Russian pressure on Ukraine frightened nervous members of both parties. “I think we’re already seeing things on the battlefield begin to shift a bit in terms of in Russia’s favor,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told the defense appropriations subcommittee on Wednesday… And finally, there’s the SCIF, or “Sensitive Compartmentalized Intelligence Facility,” where the American intel community shares secret information with lawmakers… “Every person who’s spent any time in D.C. knows the … classified intel briefing in the SCIF is merely a leash,” Tucker Carlson said… “It’s a collar around your neck attached to a chain, and at the other hand is your handler … telling you that if you don’t go along with the program, Americans will die.”… https://www.theblaze.com/columns/opinion/mike-johnson-betrays-border-security-for-more-foreign-aid?s=02 GOP @RepAndyBiggsAZ: House Leadership buried $9 billion of aid to Gaza in the Israel aid bill. Hamas has repeatedly stolen aid designated for Gaza, and there’s nothing to stop them from doing so again. We’re funding both sides of a war. GOP @RepThomasMassie: Speaker of the House is next in line to be President after the VP. Allegedly, Speaker Johnson is going to leverage his dwindling power in order to change the rules of the House just to maintain his authority. This happens in banana republics, not Constitutional Republics. @SpeakerJohnson: My position is clear – any bill that does not solve the problem and secure the border is not acceptable to the House. 17 January 24 Speaker Johnson fact sheet on Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan funding bill https://www.speaker.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Fact-Sheet_National-Security-Supplemental.docx.pdf The Ukraine war is lost, but Hollywood and DC don’t know it Russia’s army is bigger than when the war began and Ukraine can’t keep up First, Ukraine lacks the soldiers to win. Kiev has lost at least 70,000 killed in action, with another 100,000 otherwise combat ineffective… existing Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines are demanding to be rotated out to return home to a normal life… But Ukraine’s parliament said no to them, delivering a devastating blow to morale… The Pentagon now says that Moscow has already recovered from their previous losses, with their overall force now 15% larger than when the invasion began… why 90% of Europeans think the war is lost: the West’s war machine can’t keep up… There’s no magic weapon that’ll solve Ukraine’s lack of manpower – that’s the foundational problem… the third… reason… bad leadership… Zelenskyy… continues to deal with rampant corruption, to include inside his government and military. As a Zelenskyy aid told Time Magazine back in November, whatever anti-corruption efforts are in place in Ukraine, they’re not working… https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/ukraine-war-lost-hollywood-dc-dont-know Fed Balance Sheet: -$32.67B, Treasuries -$36.713B; Reserves at Fed: -$64.128B; Discount Window loans jumped to $8.56B from $5.05B. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20240418/ At the close, Netflix reported Q1 EPS of 5.28, 4.52 exp.; forecast Q2 EPS of 4.68, 4.54 exp.; Streaming Paid Net Change +9.33m, 4.84m exp.; will end reporting quarterly subscriber numbers next year Netflix initially soared to 640.26 (611.15 close) at 16:00 ET. It quickly plunged to 565.50 at 16:06 ET because NFLX forecast Q2 revenue of 9.49B on slowing subscriber growth; 9.51B expected. After the close Minneapolis Fed Pres Kashkari, appearing on Fox News, said the Fed could wait until 2025 for rate cuts. He added that the Fed can wait as long as it takes before cutting rates. Kashkari also asserted that when the political heat rises, the Fed focuses more on its mandates. Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic last night, said he was open to hiking rates if inflation moves higher. Is the Fed preparing The Street for a possible rate hike? The data and gold indicate the Fed is too soft. Today is April options expiration. Fed officials’ hawkish comments and Israel-Iran have thwarted trading schemes and manipulation this week. Bulls will try to exploit the tendency for stocks to rally on Friday to attempt one last manipulation to squeeze, or salvage, expiring April call options. The afternoon could be a crapshoot as manipulators might encounter professional traders that have learned to NOT be long on a weekend when the chance of a geopolitical blowup is high. The S&P 500 Index low on Thursday was 5001.89. A significant close below 5000 would be very bad. ESMs are -9.00; USMs are +7/32; and Gold is -5.80 at 20:06 ET. Expected earnings: FITB .71, PG 1.41, SLB.74, AXP 2.96; Chgo Fed Pres Goolsbee Q&A 10:30 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 5119; 100-day MA: 4931; 150-day MA: 4735; 200-day MA: 4671 DJIA 50-day MA: 38,831; 100-day MA: 38,052; 150-day MA: 36,660, 200-day MA: 36,196 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5011.12 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4638.30 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5039.51 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5178.17 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 5050.15 triggers a buy signal White House admits Biden uncle wasn’t eaten by cannibals, died in Pacific Ocean crash https://nypost.com/2024/04/18/us-news/white-house-admits-biden-uncle-wasnt-eaten-by-cannibals-died-in-pacific-ocean-crash/ @themarketswork: Think how this headline is perceived worldwide. @JonathanTurley: President Biden suggested that his uncle Ambrose “Bozey” Finnegan may have been eaten by cannibals in World War II. What is striking about this story is the specificity of the key facts … and the fact that they are false… (The POTUS is so demented or deceitful that he says…) https://jonathanturley.org/2024/04/18/no-the-presidents-uncle-was-not-eat-by-cannibals-seriously/ Biden: “I made it clear to the Israelis — don’t move on Haifa!” (Haifa is the 3rd largest city in Israel!) https://twitter.com/Doranimated/status/1780771168217141465 @EndWokeness: Biden just tried to copy Trump by going to a gas station in Pennsylvania. Instead, he got ignored by everyone there. https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1780732094819287356 @TheFirstonTV: Watch as Biden’s numerous handlers stage his visit to a Philadelphia convenience store… Even the cashier’s tip. Old Joe then walks in and has absolutely no idea what’s going on. https://twitter.com/TheFirstonTV/status/1781061390301577522 Ex- UK PM Liz Truss in WSJ: The Deep State Lies in Wait for Trump His second term will be much like my time in office if he doesn’t confront the entrenched bureaucracy. Across the West… there has been a shift of power away from democratically accountable officeholders to unelected bureaucrats and technocrats. The administrative state undermined Mr. Trump’s first term and undermined my tenure as Britain’s prime minister, forcing me out of office after 49 days… The deep state will attempt to undercut him even more than it did in his first term… needs a concerted plan to dismantle the deep state, which seeks its own self-preservation… https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-deep-state-lies-in-wait-for-trump-liz-truss-2024-presidential-election-6d4f77d2 FLASHBACK: Bob Casey (Dem Sen., PA) Said the Iran Deal Would ‘Enhance’ Israeli Security. Critics Say It Funded Tehran’s Drone Strike. When Sen. Bob Casey cast a deciding vote for the Iran nuclear deal, the Pennsylvania Democrat insisted it would “enhance” Israeli and American national security. Instead, the Obama-era agreement unlocked billions of dollars that helped Tehran fund its “unprecedented” drone attack against Israel… https://freebeacon.com/democrats/flashback-bob-casey-said-the-iran-deal-would-enhance-israeli-security-critics-say-it-funded-tehrans-drone-strike/ GOP Sen. @SenHawleyPress: The Democrats are guilty of all crimes resulting from Biden’s open border—including every life lost. And yesterday they shredded the Constitution by failing to impeach (Actually, hold a trial) DHS Secretary Mayorkas. Here’s the truth. Mayorkas illegally paroled Laken Riley’s killer into the US. He had a criminal record. He then committed a crime against a child in New York. No prosecution. In fact, HE GOT A WORK PERMIT. And then he killed Laken. Mayorkas knew *all* this. He lied about it. @CynicalPublius: Apparently an impeachment trial is only something you are allowed to pursue if the target is a Republican. But if the target is a Fascist Democrat, you just decide not to hold the trial. The Fascist Democrat Party is proud of this, because to them the ends justifies the means. Fascism looks EXACTLY like this. Schumer and Senate Dems ignore the Constitution. Biden brags that he defied the SCOTUS order to not forgive student debt. Do you see and comprehend what’s going on in the USA? What comes next? Moment Rep. Mike Waltz holds up a $90,000 bag of insulator joints as stumped USAF Secretary admits he has NO IDEA such basic parts cost that much for taxpayers https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13325745/Mike-Waltz-bushings-air-force-military-overspending.html NYPD arrests dozens of demonstrators at Columbia University’s ‘Gaza Solidarity Encampment’ https://justthenews.com/nation/crime/nypd-arrests-columbia-university-students-gaza-solidarity-encampment @EndWokeness: Free Palestine activists are now blocking NYPD vans from putting people in jail: https://t.co/2OXchanngc @Jewtastic: The stunning and insightful @marthamaccallum pointed out on Fox News that these 50+ tents setup are all the same color and make, someone funded and organized this entire ‘event’ in NYC – just in case you thought all these deliberate disruptions were organic. https://twitter.com/BTnewsroom/status/1781008786850803775 Anti-Israel protesters who blocked Golden Gate Bridge for hours released without charges https://nypost.com/2024/04/18/us-news/anti-israel-protesters-who-blocked-golden-gate-bridge-for-hours-released-without-charges/ Shocking moment police officer threatens to ARREST man for ‘breaching the peace’ simply by being ‘quite openly Jewish’ near pro-Palestine march in London After the defiant man attempts to walk across the road in the Aldwych area, the officer blocks him and says: ‘I don’t want anybody antagonising anybody… and at the moment sir, you are quite openly Jewish. This is a pro-Palestinian march. ‘I am not accusing you of anything but I am worried about the reaction to your presence… if you choose to remain here because you are causing a breach of peace, with all these other people, you will be arrested.’.. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13325691/Shocking-moment-police-officer-threatens-ARREST-Jewish-man-breaching-peace-stopped-crossing-road-pro-Palestine-march-London.html Black Chicago voters rip mayor on extra $70M for migrants as recall petition gathers steam – ‘We need that money in my neighborhood,’ railed one Black woman wearing a red ‘Make America Great Again’ cowboy hat https://www.foxnews.com/politics/black-chicago-voters-rip-mayor-extra-70m-migrants-recall-petition-gathers-steam The Chicago City Council will vote on Mayor Johnson’s request for $1.25B to convert vacant La Salle Street offices into illegal immigrant housing. You can’t make this up! Laken Riley murder suspect released over lack of detention space https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/apr/18/jose-ibarra-laken-riley-murder-suspect-released-ov/ NY Democrat faked signatures on election petition — including 3 dead people: prosecutors https://nypost.com/2024/04/18/us-news/ny-dem-busted-after-election-petition-was-signed-by-dead-people-report/ | |
GREG HUNTER
Israel Attacks Iran, Iran Widens War, Economy Tanks
By Greg Hunter On April 19, 2024 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups8 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 630 4.19.24)
A deadly, out-of-control war in the Middle East became a reality this week. Israel attacked Iran. Iran released a massive counter-attack on Israel. And now, Israel has attacked multiple Iranian targets, including Iran’s nuclear facilities in the center of the country. Where will it stop?
Now, Iran is vowing to attack Israel’s nuke sites. Many have been warning for months about a conflict that could bring on World War III. Is this it? It sure looks like it.
The markets are tanking on war news between Iran and Israel. This is at a time when interest rates are rising. The Fed talked about lowering rates three times this year. This week, they say no rate cuts are coming in 2024 because of high and persistent inflation. Of course, war is a huge driver of inflation, and we are just getting started. Gold and silver look like they have a long way to go on the upside, and stocks and bonds have a long way to go on the downside. Many people will be calling their broker and getting a busy signal–that’s if the markets are not completely shut down. Many will be caught on the wrong side of this economy because there is no fear to downside risk. The sheeple are going to be getting a huge lesson on managing risk. There is no telling where this will go, but a crashing economy is definitely on the table, if war does not kick the table completely over.
There is more in the 39-minute newscast.
For an 8-minute demonstration on power generators from Sat123.com and BeReady123.com, click here.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 4.19.24.
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After the Interview:
Journalist Alex Newman, author of the groundbreaking book called “Indoctrinating our Children to Death,” will be back to talk war, inflation and the Deep State behind it all.
SEE YOU MONDAY
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