GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $5.05 TO $2329.80
SILVER PRICE UP $0.05 TO $27.32
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2332.85
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $27,43
The defense of $2300 gold is now upon us and surpassed. Next up $2400 gold//Silver’s next line is $28.42. Then $34.76
The Fed is trapped as they still have their huge shortfall in gold (owes at least 67 tonnes to the BIS), They hoped that they could extricate themselves from their mess with this coming options expiry. So far, they have failed
Bitcoin morning price:$63,929 DOWN 30 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $64,654 UP 699 dollars
Platinum price closing UP $6.50TO $915.30
Palladium price; DOWN $24,05AT $982.00
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 34 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD
SHANGHAI GOLD…
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Last Updated 25 Apr 2024 02:58:30 PM CT.
Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros
4: 15 PM ACCESS
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3185.41 UP 14.20 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,301.52 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//APRIL 16 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1864.16 UP 7.05 pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1933.24 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 19/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2174,09 UP 7.13uros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2248.89 EUROS PER OZ//APRIL 16.2024)
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END
EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: APRIL 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,324.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 04/24/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 04/26/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
132 C SG AMERICAS 46
190 H BMO CAPITAL 9
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 3
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 40
737 C ADVANTAGE 15
905 C ADM 5
991 H CME 14
TOTAL: 66 66
JPMORGAN STOPPED (RECEIVED) 0/66CONTRACTS
FOR APRIL/2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR APRIL/2024. CONTRACT: 66 NOTICES FOR 6600 OZ or 0.2053 TONNES
total notices so far: 16,302 contracts for 1,630,200 Oz (50.919 tonnes)
FOR APRIL:
SILVER NOTICES: 2 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 10,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1636 for 8,180,000 oz
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GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $5.05
INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ :
NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.63 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 833,63 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.05 AT THE SLV//
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.534MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/
// INVENTORY INCREASES T0 429.814 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 429.814MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 2695 CONTRACTS TO 173,045 BUT STILL RAPIDLY CLOSING IN ON THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, DESPITE THE RAID AND THIS HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL LOSS OF $0,05 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY. WE HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AT THE COMEX SESSION WITH AGAIN PANICKING SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE HUGE PRICE LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED 831 T.A.S ISSUANCE AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 831 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND ALL OF THESE TRADES.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.05, AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SILVER LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1470 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.05
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUGE SIZED 1225 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 2.465 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S NIL OZ E.F.P.JUMP TO LONDON //NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 8.195 MILLION OZ//
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER IS THUS 8.195 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS/ HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 823 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL -REMOVED A STRONG 1470 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS FEB. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF APRIL
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 19 DAYS, total 28,837 contracts: OR 144.185MILLION OZ (1518 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 144.185 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 144.815 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2695 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 831 ISSUED FOR MAY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR APRIL. OF 2.465 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAYS’ 10,000 OZ E.F.P JUMP TO LONDON
//NEW TOTAL STANDING REMAINS AT 8.195 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 2695 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 831 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (831 WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//PROBABLY TODAY., .
WE HAD 2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 10,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1341 OI CONTRACTS TO 517,590 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 872 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (1341 CONTRACTS) DESPITE OUR $4.60 LOSS IN PRICE//WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER TO WHACK GOLD’S PRICE. WE ALSO HAD A RATHER LARGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL. AT 44.8615 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S TINY QUEUE JUMP OF 600 OZ.(0.0186TONNES)
NEW STANDING 50.827 TONNES// ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $3.75 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 3532 OI CONTRACTS (14.09 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2191 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 518,462
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3532 CONTRACTS WITH 1341CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2191 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3532 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED 5826 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2191 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI 1341/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3532 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR APRIL. AT 44.8615 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S TINY 0.0186TONNES QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING 50.827 TONNES.
/ 3) ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE.
// 4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN/ 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///6: STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 5826CONTRACTS/ HUGE SHORT COVERING BY OUR WRONG FOOTED SPECS WITH THE FED’S CONTINUAL RAID ON THE COMEX GOLD.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
APRIL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 73,818 CONTRACTS OR 7,381,800 OZ OR 229.60TONNES IN 19TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3968 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 19TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 229.60 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2022, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 229.60 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 6.46% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
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AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 229.60 TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.Today, we had the open interest at the comex, in SILVER FELL BY A MEGA-HUGE SIZED 2695 CONTRACTS OI TO 173,045AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 831 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
MAY 800 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 831 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2695 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 831 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1470 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 7.35MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.05 LOSS IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
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REPORT THIS AD
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.08 PTS OR 0.27% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 83,27PTS OR 0.48% / Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 831,60PTS OR 2.16% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.01%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.2460//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.26750 Oil UP TO 82.97dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 88.18 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY MIXED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1341 CONTRACTS TO 517,590 DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $3.75 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY TRADING. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE A.S. LIQUIDATION AS WELL AS SHORTS, DESPERATELY TRYING TO GET OUT OF THEIR NAKED SHORTS.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL..… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG 2191 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : JUNE 2191 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2191 CONTRACTS
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 3532 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2191 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1341 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GOOD GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $3.75 WEDNESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A STRONG SIZED 4157 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 EX FOR RISK ISSUANCE. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS ON TUESDAY WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (50.827 TONNES) ( ACTIVE MONTH)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 24 MONTHS OF 2021-2023:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNEES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 50.827TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL $3.75 //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 3532 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE 0F $3.75
WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THE FRONT END OF WEDNESDAY’S TRADING ALONG. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 10.98 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR APRIL. (44.8615 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S SMALL QUEUE.JUMP OF 600 OZ (0.0186TONNES)//NEW STANDING; 50.827TONNES
NEW STANDING: 50.650ONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $3.75
WE HAD REMOVED 872 CONTRACTS TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3532 CONTRACTS OR 353,200 OZ (10.98TONNES)
confirmed volume WEDNESDAY 197m049 contracts//fair
//speculators have left the gold arena
APRIL 25 INITIAL APRIL GOLD
/ /// THE APRIL 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 21.151oz Brinks one kilobar . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 32,,246.041oz asahi Delaware 1002 kilobars and 1 kilobar |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 39 notice(s) 3900 OZ 0.1213 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 53 contracts 5300 OZ 0.1648ONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 16,302 notices 1,630,200 oz 50.919 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 2 customer deposits:
i) Into Asahi 32,213,890 oz (1002 kilobars)
ii) Into Delaware 32,151 oz (1 kilobar)
total deposit 32m246,041 oz
total customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Brinks: 32,15 oz (1 kilobars)
Adjustments: 1
adjustment: 1553.919oz customer to dealer //brinks
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL.
For the front month of APRIL we have an oi of 105 contracts having GAINED 29 contracts. We had 23 contracts served on WEDNESDAY, so we GAINED 6 contracts or an additional 600 oz (0.0186tonnes) will stand at the comex
MAY LOST 134 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1999
JUNE DEREASED ITS OI BY 484CONTRACTS UP TO 408,495CONTRACTS.
We had 66 contracts filed for today representing 6600 oz
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 66 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL. /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (16,302x 100 oz ), to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (105CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (66x 100 oz per contract( equals 1,634,100OZ OR 50.827 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL. contract month: No of notices filed so far (16,302) x 100 oz + (105 {OI for the front month} minus the number of notices served upon today (66 x 100 oz which equals 1,634,100 oz (50.827TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR APRIL: 50.827 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,567,289.026 48.749tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,622,656.483OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,532,254.885 (234.236 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,090,381.598OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,964,965 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)
185.54tonnes/dropping like a stone
END
SILVER/COMEX
APRIL 24
INITIAL
//2024// THE APRIL 2025SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 3173.900 oz CNT . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1,136,625.460 oz Brinks ASAHI |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 2CONTRACT(S) (10,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 3 contracts (15,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1636Contracts (8,180,000oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit :nil oz
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i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 2 deposits customer account:
i) Into Brinks 597,216.000oz
ii) Into ASAHI 597,216.000 oz
total customer deposits 1,136,625.460oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 130.1709million oz/295.107million or 44.06%
adjustment: 6 ALL DEALER TO CUSTOMER
I) asahi 720,932,140 OZ
II) cnt 89,734,000 OZ
III) hsbc 24M521,100 OZ
IV) Int Delaware 9663.000 oz
v) JPMorgan 20,501.010 oz
vi) Manfra: 99,333.812.0z
Comex withdrawals: 1
i0 CNT 3,173.900 oz
total withdrawal 3173.000oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 46m231MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 295m107million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DECEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF APRIL /2023 OI: 5 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 6 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 8 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE LOST 2 CONTRACTS OR ADDITIONAL 10,0000 OZ WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY WERE E.F.P.;d TO LONDON FOR DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND,
.
MAY SAW A LOSS OF 10,611CONTRACTS DOWNTO 33,912
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 40 CONTRACTS RISING TO 738
JULY SAW A GAIN OF 7338CONTRACTS UP TO 114,097
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 8 for 40,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 106,172/HUGE
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1636 5,000 oz = 8,180,000 oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL (5)and the number of notices served upon today 2x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the APRIL/2024 contract month: 1636(notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of APRIL. (5)number of notices served upon today (2x 500 oz of silver standing for the APRIL contract month equates to 8.195 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 8.195 million oz.
There are 46,231 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
APRIL 25WITH GOLD UP $5.05 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD /INVENTORY RISES AT 833,63 TONNES
APRIL 19 WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 831.91 TONNES
APRIL 18 WITH GOLD UP $11.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 827.59 TONNES
APRIL 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 830;18 TONNES
APRIL 16 WITH GOLD UP $23.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 828.45 TONNES
APRIL 15 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY FALLS AT 826.72 TONNES
APRIL 12 WITH GOLD UP $2.80 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISESS AT 830.75 TONN
APRIL 10 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.60 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 828.71 TONNES
APRIL 9 WITH GOLD UP $11.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RISES AT 827,85 TONNES
APRIL 8 WITH GOLD UP $7.10 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 826.41 TONNES
APRIL 5 WITH GOLD UP $38.65 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 832.45 TONNES
APRIL 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $3.35 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD //A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.73 TONNES
APRIL 3 WITH GOLD UP $33,85 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD // INVENTORY REMAINS AT 829.00 TONNES
APRIL 2 WITH GOLD UP $23.90 TODAY; HUG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITH DRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 829.00 TONNES
APRIL 1 WITH GOLD UP $18.70 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 28 WITH GOLD UP $26.30 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 27 WITH GOLD UP $15.00 TODAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// INVENTORY FALLS TO 830.15 TONNES
MARCH 26 WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 835.33 TONNES
MARCH 25 WITH GOLD UP $17.05 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 838.50 TONNES
MARCH 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.75 TODAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD INVENTORY RISES TO 838.50 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 833,63 TONNES,
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
APRIL 25WITH SILVER UP $.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.534 MILLION OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
APRIL 24/WITH SILVER DOWN $.05 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.904MILLION OF SILVER INTO THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 428.280 MILLION OZ
APRIL 23/WITH SILVER UP $0.11TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV / :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 416.376 MILLION OZ
APRIL 22/WITH SILVER DOWN $1.51 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.194 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 416.376 MILLION OZ
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 42 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.657 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 418.570 MILLION OZ
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER DOWN $.04TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.977 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF .868 MILLION OF SILVER FROM THE SLV// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 426/204 MILLION OZ
APRIL 16/WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF NON EXISTENT SILVER// :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 427.072 MILLION OZ
APRIL 15/WITH SILVER UP $0.46 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 12/WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.069 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 11/WITH SILVER UP $0.23 TODAY: STRANGE INDEED! HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.931 MILLION OZ :SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.998 MILLION OZ
APRIL 10/WITH SILVER UP $0.04 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP $0.15 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.549 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.929 MILLION OZ
APRIL 8/WITH SILVER UP $0.33 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.320 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.328 MILLION OZ
APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP $0.61 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.748 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 441.060 MILLION OZ
APRIL 4/WITH SILVER UP $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.671 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 437.312 MILLION OZ
APRIL 3/WITH SILVER UP $1.14 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.835 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 433.641 MILLION OZ
APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 84 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 6.721 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 430.806 MILLION OZ
APRIL 1/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.085 MILLION OZ
MARCH 28/WITH SILVER UP 20 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.085 MILLION OZ
REPORT THIS AD
MARCH 27/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A A DEPOSIT OF 1.691 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 423.079 MILLION OZ
MARCH 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A A DEPOSIT OF 0.366 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 421.388 MILLION OZ
MARCH 25/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.887 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 421.022 MILLION OZ
MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.1899 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.909 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 429.814 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFFGOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
END
2.Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens/…
Jim Rickards…
This “Emperor” Has No Clothes
THURSDAY, APR 25, 2024 – 09:35 AM
Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,
Does the Fed even matter that much to the real economy and investor portfolios?
That’s an important question that doesn’t get nearly enough scrutiny. It’s possible that neither the Fed nor the reporters who cover the Fed want to ask hard questions about what the Fed really does.
Could it be the case that the emperor has no clothes?
Financial journalists often refer to a Goldilocks economy (“not too hot, not too cold, just right!”) as a tribute to the Fed’s finesse in handling rates. It’s also called the “soft landing” scenario because the Fed supposedly tamed inflation without causing a recession.
These narratives have no factual foundations; they’re just stories designed to get you to buy stocks and pump up stock prices.
The truth is the Fed is always behind the curve and doesn’t finesse the economy. And there’s no such thing as a soft landing; the economy does not gradually shift gears. It’s either growing fast or going into recession.
So where does the Fed stand today? Will it start cutting rates as Wall Street keeps (wrongly) predicting?
Wall Street Keeps Getting It Wrong
The Fed will not cut rates at its May or June meetings. Wall Street’s been predicting rate cuts for almost two years and they’ve been wrong every time. They’re predicting a June rate cut, and they’ll be wrong again.
A rate cut at the July 31 meeting is possible but is in jeopardy now due to inflation going up again in the latest report. We’ll have three more months of inflation, unemployment and GDP data between now and then.
If the Fed does cut rates in late July, it won’t be for good reasons. It’ll be because the economy has fallen into a recession. But given the boost to U.S. growth from out-of-control government spending in an election year, the recession may be postponed. So don’t count on a July rate cut either.
There’s no Fed meeting in August. The next meeting after that is Sept. 18. The Fed may be ready for a rate cut by then but here’s the problem: The Sept. 18 date is just seven weeks before the election on Nov. 5. The Fed pretends it’s non-political but in fact, it is highly political.
A rate cut in September will be viewed as helping Biden by boosting the economy and hurting Trump. At the same time, Trump is the likely winner based on currently available polling data and trends.
The Fed won’t want to be in the position of appearing to boost Biden and hurt Trump if Trump is going to win. Trump will make the Fed Public Enemy No. 1 and that’s the last thing they want. So the Fed will take a pass in September.
There’s no Fed meeting in October. The next two Fed meetings after that are on Nov. 7 and Dec. 18, both safely after the election. The Fed could cut rates at both meetings. But the Fed has painted itself into a corner on that.
The Fed’s Running out of Time
Beginning at the FOMC meeting on March 20, the Fed promoted the narrative that there would be three rate cuts before the end of the year. If they don’t cut in May, June, July or September (for reasons noted above) and there are no meetings in August or October, then the Fed would have at most two rate cuts this year, in November and December.
In short, the Fed is running out of meetings in which to conduct three rate cuts and may have to settle for two.
The Fed’s reckless promise and the dictates of the calendar are what are driving the stock market. The stock market’s fixated on the Fed, but the Fed doesn’t know what they’re doing. That’s a recipe for volatility and a sharp reversal of the first-quarter gains.
So why doesn’t the Fed just get on with it and start cutting rates in May? They could make an announcement and hire a band to play “Happy Days Are Here Again.”
The Fed thought they had won the battle when inflation dropped from 9.1% (CPI year-over-year) in June 2022 to 3.0% in June 2023. Nice job, Fed. It was when that June 2023 reading came out in July 2023 that the Fed put in one last rate hike, and then stopped dead. Since then, it’s been a countdown to rate cuts.
The problem is that inflation isn’t done. From the 3.0% in June 2023, inflation rose to 3.7% in August, and 3.7% again in September 2023. Inflation fluctuated between 3.1% and 3.4% until recently. March inflation came in at 3.5%, a full 0.3 percentage points higher than in February.
Oil’s up 24% in 4 Months
That’s not all that’s going up. The price of oil was $68.50 per barrel last Dec. 12 and is over $83.00 per barrel today. That’s about a 21% increase in just four months.
That oil price shock hasn’t worked its way through the supply chain yet. It has resulted in some price increases, but more are in the pipeline. This oil price spike will keep inflation at current levels or higher in the months ahead. The Fed is looking for signs that inflation is coming down but they’re not going to get them, as shown in the latest inflation report.
The price of one gallon of regular gasoline (regular, national average) was $3.64 as of yesterday, April 22. It was $3.57 on April 4, $3.55 on April 3, $3.54 on March 28, $3.52 on March 4 and $3.51 on April 4, 2023.
Put differently, gas prices are higher than they were last week, last month and last year.
That’s a bad sign for Biden politically, but it’s a worse sign for the Fed in terms of inflation. That gas price rise isn’t over because the wholesale price of oil is still on the rise. And oil prices affect far more than the price of gas at the pump.
Higher oil prices mean higher transportation costs whether by truck, train, plane or ship since all goods have to be transported to market. That means the price of everything is going up.
Other factors driving inflation from the supply side include the Key Bridge collapse in Baltimore, the closing of the Red Sea/Suez Canal shipping route and continued fallout from Ukraine war sanctions. Some of these supply side constraints may be deflationary in the long run, but they are definitely inflationary in the short run.
Running on Fed Happy Talk
The stock market has been running on Fed Happy Talk. That situation may end abruptly on June 12 if the Fed doesn’t cut rates and signals that rate cuts are not to be expected in the near future and perhaps not before the end of the year.
By then, we may be facing one of the worst economic outcomes possible: recession + inflation = stagflation.
Anyone under the age of 60 probably has no acquaintance with stagflation.
The U.S. last experienced this in 1977–1981. I remember that period well. It was great for leveraged holders of hard assets such as gold and real estate.
It was a nightmare for holders of stocks. (The long-term bull market in stocks did not start until August 1982.)
Investors might keep that winning hard asset portfolio allocation in mind as events unfold between now and June.
END
3. CHRIS POWELL//GATA DISPATCHES
Silver Bullion TV reviews the success of the Sound Money Defense League
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-04-23 22:43 Section: Daily Dispatches
10:42p ET Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Interviewed this week by Patrick Vierra of Silver Bullion TV in Singapore, Money Metals Exchange CEO Stefan Gleason explains the work of the Sound Money Defense League in the United States. The league lately has assisted passage of legislation in 45 of the 50 states to exempt monetary metals coin and bullion from sales taxes.
The league also has been encouraging states to hold some of their cash reserves in monetary metal to hedge their exposure to the U.S. dollar.
The interview is 40 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
4. OTHER MAJOR GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS
Gold Prices: Beyond Inflation And Real Yields
(courtesy Robert Burrows)
THURSDAY, APR 25, 2024 – 12:25 PM
Authored Robert Burrows via BondVigilantes.com,
Renowned for its role as a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation, gold has long captivated investors. One key factor influencing gold’s price is the relationship between real yields and inflation. Over the long term, gold has protected one against the pernicious effects of inflation and remains a powerful diversifier within an investment portfolio:
ource: M&G, Bloomberg, 23 April 2024
Real yields, also known as inflation-adjusted yields, represent the return on an investment after accounting for inflation. They are calculated by subtracting the inflation rate from the nominal yield of a financial instrument, such as a government bond. Real yields provide a more accurate measure of an investor’s purchasing power and the true return on their investment. Historically, gold prices have exhibited an inverse correlation with real yields. When real yields are low or negative, indicating that inflation-adjusted returns on fixed-income investments are meagre or eroded by inflation, investors seek alternative stores of value, such as gold. Conversely, when real yields are high, offering attractive returns relative to inflation, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, leading to downward pressure on the gold price.
The below chart demonstrates this general trend:
Source: M&G, Bloomberg, 23 April 2024
While the trend is not perfect, the following chart demonstrates that correlations have been negative for the bulk of the time:
Source: M&G, Bloomberg, 23 April 2024
So why is gold going up? If these correlations hold and real yields are moving higher, the gold price should be trending lower. There is something else at play. Investors will generally point to global instability, with geopolitical concerns being obvious. The other would be the challenging fiscal backdrop of many major economies, which I have written about. These concerns are well founded; however, they do not seem to be showing up in other risk assets.
BBB US corporates are trading at their all-time tights, so there is nothing to see here:
Source: M&G, Bloomberg, 23 April 2024
Volatility is not exploding, as shown by the volatility index VIX:
Source: M&G, Bloomberg, 23 April 2024
A quick look at China shows some interesting developments. We know why interest rates have gone up: to combat inflation. However, yields may still be pressured higher due to countries selling down their treasury reserves. China, for example, has been reducing its treasury reserves for some years. This is not the sole reason for higher yields but will be a contributory factor. The below chart shows Chinese treasury reserves falling plotted against the 10-year treasury yield (inverted):
Source: M&G, Bloomberg, 23 April 2024
Where are these funds going? Bolstering gold reserves it would seem…
Source: M&G, Bloomberg, 23 April 2024
…, and China is not alone in this thinking:
Source: M&G, Bloomberg, 23 April 2024
We have witnessed many responses with the onset of the war in Ukraine, one of which is sanctions. The sanctions have attempted to lock out a country from its reserves. The West’s freezing of Russia’s gold and forex reserves in response to the conflict appears to have triggered this shift. More recently, there have been threats to confiscate Russian reserves and use these funds to support Ukraine’s efforts. This will undoubtedly make other countries somewhat nervous, especially those not 100% aligned with the West’s worldview.
Clearly, the Gold price is influenced by a multitude of factors, and one cannot point to any one single issue. However, it doesn’t seem as though gold is currently being bought for its safe-haven appeal at this stage. Where would the gold price be if the Fed starts cutting and the geopolitics worsen?
end
5 a. IMPORTANT COMMENTARIES ON COMMODITIES/
REPORT THIS AD
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
END
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP 7.2460
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2650
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.08PTS OR 0.27%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 83.07 PTS OR 0.48%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 831,60 OR 2.16%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 105.62 EURO RISES TO 1.0712 UP 19 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +.889Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 155,55 JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN:UP/ OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UPTO +2.5765*/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3..936 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.373
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.4999
3j Gold at $2329,20silver at: 27.41 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 16 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 92.08/
3m oil into the 82dollar handle for WTI and 88 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 155.55/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.889% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9134as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9791well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.653UP 0 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.787 UP 0BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.927DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.51…(TURKEY SET TO BLOW UP FINANCIALLY)
GREAT BRITAIN/10 YEAR YIELD: UP 2 BASIS PTS AT 4.3620
end
2.a Overnight: Newsquawk and Zero hedge
US Futures Tumble After Facebook Implodes; GDP Data On Deck
THURSDAY, APR 25, 2024 – 08:09 AM
The three-day rebound from last week’s rout ended with a thud after the close yesterday when Meta imploded, plunging as much as 17% and losing $200 billion in market cap, after the company revealed disappointing revenue guidance coupled with higher capex projections. The report sent US futures lower, and as of 7:50am, S&P futures are down 0.6% with Nasdaq futures sliding 1% (Meta accountied for more than half of the decline) dragged by Mag7 names (META -12.6%, AMZN -2.2%, MSFT -1.5%, GOOGL -2.8% but Semis are broadly stronger, buoyed by META’s capex spend (at least $70bn over next 2 years). Bond yields are flattish with the 10Y trading at 4.65% and the curve slightly steeper as the USD is moving lower but not for the yen which continues its historic implosion as the hopeless BOJ sits in shock and watches its currency collapse (there is a BOJ meeting tonight where we expect nothing from the headless chickens). Commodites are rising today with strength in Energy and Metals. In macro, we get Q1 GDP numbers today with an update on March inventories and the normal jobless claims, but tomorrow’s s PCE is the more impactful number. After the close we get earnings from GOOG/MSFT which take on heightened importance given META’s price reaction.
In premarket trading, Meta tumbled as much as 15% after it projected second-quarter sales below analyst expectations and increased spending estimates for the year (JPM tech trader Jack Atherton says he would buy the dip with META). Alphabet Inc., which reports earnings later along with Microsoft Corp., also dropped. IBM shares are also down over 8% following weak demand for the company’s consulting unit. Here are the most notable US premarket movers:
- Arista Networks (ANET US) shares rise 2.7% as analysts note that the cloud-networking company could benefit from Meta’s increased spending plans.
- Ford (F US) shares gain 3.0% after the automaker reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share that came ahead of consensus estimates. Citi said the results were an “encouraging outcome.”
- International Business Machines (IBM US) shares slip as much as 9.0% after the company reported results that showed weak demand for the company’s consulting unit. It also confirmed the acquisition of software firm HashiCorp Inc.
- Meta Platforms (META US) shares slump 13% after the Facebook parent gave a revenue forecast that was seen as weak and increased its spending estimates for the year amid an ongoing push into AI.
- Social media and online advertising companies trade lower following disappointing results from Facebook parent Meta. Snap (SNAP US) -5.1%, Pinterest (PINS US) -4.5%, Alphabet (GOOGL US) -2.9%, Trade Desk (TTD US) -3.3%
- ServiceNow (NOW US) shares fall 4.9% after the software company gave a full-year subscription revenue forecast that was slightly weaker than expected. Analysts are broadly positive on the report.
- Silicon Laboratories (SLAB US) shares rise 2.3% as Needham & Co. upgrades rating to buy from hold. The broker says the semiconductor device company “is well positioned for the semiconductor cyclical recovery.”
Hopes for tech megacaps have been red hot after the frenzy around artificial intelligence powered Wall Street’s record-breaking rally. But gains at the start of the week are flagging, suggesting wagers on an AI-driven profit boost may be overdone. US data due Thursday could turn the focus back to the timing of Federal Reserve policy easing.
“I think we are just hitting a little bit of a reality check,” Sonja Laud, chief investment officer at Legal & General Investment Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “This doesn’t take away the excitement around the potential going forward, but it’s probably valuation coming back to a more realistic pathway.”
Beyond corporate results, traders are also bracing for US economic growth figures after scaling back expectations for Fed interest-rate cuts for weeks. Economists predict GDP cooled to around 2.5% in the first quarter from 3.4%, with the figures still potentially suggesting persistent inflationary pressures.
“Any downside surprises could see markets bringing expected Fed interest rate cuts earlier — after having been pushed out to much later this year,” economists at Rand Merchant Bank in Johannesburg said. “However, upside surprises could see continued market volatility as the market tries to ascertain the risk that a hotter-than-expected economy poses to anticipated interest-rate cuts.”
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the world’s largest economies must “lay out our differences,” as he began two days of talks in China, with the threat of US sanctions targeting Beijing over its support of Russia’s war in Ukraine looming over his visit.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index edged lower with food beverage and industrial goods sectors leading declines, while mining and personal care drug shares are the biggest outperformers as traders processed a deluge of corporate updates on the busiest day of the earnings season. Anglo American Plc soared 14% after rival BHP Group made an all-share takeover proposal valuing it at £31.1 billion ($38.8 billion) in a deal that would create the world’s largest copper miner. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:
- Anglo American soars as much as 14%, hitting the highest level since July, after the miner received an all-share takeover approach worth $39 billion from global industry leader BHP
- AstraZeneca jump as much as 6.5%, the most since November 2020, after the drugmaker reported better-than-expected results for the first quarter
- Unilever gains as much as 5.3%, the most in over a month, after the consumer goods giant delivered a strong sales beat in the first quarter and showed volumes are improving
- Barclays rises as much as 5.2% to the highest since Feb. 2022, after investment banking revenue for the first quarter met the average analyst estimate
- Sanofi advances as much as 4.5%, the most since March 2023, after the French drugmaker reported first-quarter results that beat expectations, helped by new drug products Beyfortus and Altuviiio
- Adyen slumps as much as 15% after the Dutch payment firm’s 1Q report showed a decline in take rates, offsetting stronger-than-expected growth in processing volumes
- Pernod Ricard shares drop as much as 3.1% after the spirits maker reported fiscal 3Q results. Organic sales missed estimates as US buyers work through high inventories and the Chinese market remains slow
- Telia shares fall as much as 9.6% after reporting free cash flow well below estimates, with the Swedish telecom operator blaming higher interest costs and different timing of pension refund this year, among others
- Kesko slides as much as 6.5%, the most since June, after the Finnish home goods and improvement retailer reports weaker-than-expected earnings and cuts 2024 guidance, with its construction arm dragging on growth
- Neste declines as much as 11% to their lowest since 2020 after Finnish refiner reports adjusted 1Q Ebitda for the first quarter that missed estimates, driven by a weaker renewable diesel market, RBC says
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1% while the pound is among the best performing G-10 currencies, rising 0.4% versus the greenback. The yen extended losses after weakening beyond 155 per dollar for the first time in more than three decades on Wednesday, heightening the chances of intervention ahead of Bank of Japan’s policy decision Friday. The Japanese currency weakened to 155.74 per dollar on Thursday, a new 34-year low. The BOJ is forecast to keep its interest rate settings unchanged, while the yen’s plunge makes it more likely the bank will tone down its stance on keeping policy easy. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference “is expected to take a hawkish tone, and even if depreciation in the yen doesn’t accelerate, the government is likely to intervene at the same time and swing the yen stronger by about 5 yen,” said Eiji Dohke, a strategist at SBI Securities. The first intervention would probably be for trillions of yen, followed by smaller long-term purchases, he said.
In rates, treasuries were little changed after yields rose in the previous session. US 10-year yields around 4.64% are near flat on the day with bunds and gilts outperforming by 1.5bp and 2.5bp in the sector. Core European rates outperform Treasuries, with little reaction in Spanish short-end bonds to Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s threat to resign, made after European markets closed on Wednesday. The week’s treasury coupon auction cycle concludes with $44b 7-year note sale at 1pm New York time, following solid results for both 2- and 5-year sales earlier this week; WI 7-year yield at ~4.652% is roughly 47bp cheaper than last month’s, which stopped 0.8bp through in a strong result.
In commodities, oil prices are little changed, with WTI trading near $82.80 a barrel. Spot gold rises 0.4% to around $2,325/oz.
Bitcoin was flat in choppy trade and briefly approached the $64,000 level before fading back.
Looking at the calendar, US data releases include the initial Q1 GDP reading from the US, along with the weekly initial jobless claims, pending home sales for March, and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index for April. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Schnabel, Vujcic, Nagel and Panetta. And we’ll also get the ECB’s latest Economic Bulletin. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Microsoft, Alphabet, Caterpillar and Intel.
Corporate Highlights:
- Caterpillar Inc. reported first-quarter results that showed machinery sales dipping from a year earlier and warned its second-quarter figures are also expected to be lower.
- Lazard Inc. posted its best first-quarter revenue on record as the investment bank jostles for position among boutiques to take advantage of the rebound in mergers and acquisitions.
- Southwest Airlines Co. is slowing growth, ending service at four airports and offering voluntary leaves to address “significant challenges” in 2024 and 2025 created after Boeing Co. again reduced the number of aircraft the carrier will receive this year.
- Barclays Plc posted first-quarter revenue that topped analyst estimates after its stock traders collected a surprise windfall from tumultuous global markets.
- Deutsche Bank AG relied on its traders and investment bankers to make up for a slowdown in income from lending, as Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing seeks to deliver on an ambitious revenue goal.
- BNP Paribas SA’s fixed-income traders trailed all of the large Wall Street banks in the first quarter, taking the shine off a strong performance in other parts of the investment bank.
- Unilever Plc sales jumped more than expected in the first quarter as Chief Executive Officer Hein Schumacher pushes ahead with his turnaround plan.
- Nestle SA sales growth sputtered in the first quarter as the maker of Nespresso coffee was hit by cooler demand in North America and supply constraints at its vitamins unit.
- STMicroelectronics NV reported weaker sales than analysts expected, exacerbated by a slowdown in chip demand from the automotive sector.
Earnings
- Meta Platforms Inc (META) Q1 2024 (USD): EPS 4.71 (exp. 4.32), Revenue 36.46bln (exp. 36.16bln), Q2 24 revenue view 36.5-39bln (exp. 38.38bln), FY24 capex view 35-40bln (exp. 34.73bln), also expects capex to increase in FY25 (exp. 37.73bln). Shares are down -12.9% pre-market.
- International Business Machines Corp (IBM) Q1 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.68 (exp. 1.60), Revenue 14.46bln (exp. 14.55bln). Shares are down 8.5% pre-market
- Ford Motor Co (F) Q1 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.49 (exp. 0.42), Revenue 42.8bln (exp. 40.1bln). Shares are up 3.2% pre-market
- Barclays (BARC LN) Q1 (GBP): Investment Bank Revenue 3.33bln (exp. 3.35bln). FICC Revenue 1.4bln (exp. 1.52bln); affirms FY24 NII guidance. CEO said seeing an uptick in deals flow and equity markets
- AstraZeneca (AZN LN) Q1 (USD): Core EPS 2.06 (exp. 1.89). Revenue 12.7bln (exp. 11.9bln); Confirms a 7% increase in the annual dividend announced at AGM.
- Unilever (ULVR LN) Q1 (GBP) Revenue 15bln (exp. 14.7bln). Underlying Sales +4.4% (exp. +3.6%). Co. is increasingly confident in its ability to deliver sustained volume growth and positive mix; affirms FY24 underlying sales growth.
- Nestle (NESN SW) Q1 (CHF): Organic Revenue +1.4% (Exp. 2.9%); Revenue 22.1bln (prev. 23.5bln Y/Y). CEO said “We had expected a slow start and see a strong rebound in Q2 with reliable delivery for the remainder of the year.”
- STMicroelectronics (STM FP) Q1 (USD): Revenue 3.47bln (exp. 3.63bln). Guides Q2 Revenue 3.2bln (exp. 3.8bln) and gross margin 40% (exp. 42.4%). Cuts FY24 Revenue guidance amid slower than expected Auto chip demand, now between 14-15bln (exp. 16.2bln). (Newswires)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 5,079.25
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 504.95
- MXAP down 1.0% to 171.56
- MXAPJ down 0.4% to 531.90
- Nikkei down 2.2% to 37,628.48
- Topix down 1.7% to 2,663.53
- Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 17,284.54
- Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,052.90
- Sensex up 0.6% to 74,269.03
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,683.00
- Kospi down 1.8% to 2,628.62
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.58%
- Euro up 0.3% to $1.0726
- Brent Futures up 0.4% to $88.40/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.4% to $2,326.48
- US Dollar Index down 0.25% to 105.60
Top Overnight News
- The South Korean economy grew at the fastest pace in more than two years in the first quarter beating all estimates with a pick-up in domestic consumption and robust exports, but the market questioned if the recovery was sustainable. GDP for the January-March quarter was 1.3% higher than the preceding three months on a seasonally adjusted basis, the sharpest expansion since the fourth quarter of 2021. RTRS
- French President Emmanuel Macron, who was instrumental in making Ursula von der Leyen the European Commission president five years ago, is now in talks with fellow EU leaders to find a different candidate — such as Mario Draghi — to fill the top job. BBG
- BHP has proposed a £31bn takeover of Anglo American that would bring together two global mining companies and rank as one of the industry’s largest transactions in years. FT
- Ukraine is set to increase long-range attacks inside Russia as an influx of western military aid aims to help Kyiv shape the war “in much stronger ways”, the head of the UK military has said. FT
- Israel will no longer pursue an all-out assault on Rafah but instead proceed gradually and in a more targeted fashion so as to limit civilian casualties. WSJ
- Pivotal GDP data looks set to confirm an ongoing economic boom last quarter, adding to pressure on the Fed to keep rates steady. GDP probably rose at a 2.5% annualized rate, with consumer spending seen advancing 3%. That would mean the fastest growth on a four-quarter basis in two years. BBG
- White-collar hiring is stalling out across much of the US. Hiring in professional services, finance and tech is running at one-third the rate of the overall labor market. Wage growth for high-paid workers has also cooled. BBG
- Micron is poised to receive $6.1 billion in grants and as much as $7.5 billion in loans from the US government, to build new American factories. BBG
- Mark Zuckerberg rekindled investor fears that he would not control costs at Meta after vowing to increase spending and turn the social media group into “the leading AI company in the world”, sending its shares tumbling more than 12 per cent in pre-market trading on Thursday. FT
- Boeing DoJ aims to determine by late May if Boeing breached an agreement shielding it from criminal prosecution over 2018 and 2019 fatal crashes, Reuters reports. Families of victims urged prosecution in five-hour meetings on Wednesday. Separately, Boeing said it was disappointed at not advancing in the US Air Force’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft programme, but remains committed to delivering next-gen autonomous combat aircraft, including MQ-25 Stingray, MQ-28 Ghost Bat, and undisclosed proprietary programmes.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly subdued after the uninspiring handover from the US where futures were pressured after-hours following Meta’s underwhelming guidance, while the region also digested several earnings releases and markets in both Australia and New Zealand markets were closed for ANZAC Day. Nikkei 225 underperforms and retreated beneath the 38,000 level amid tech weakness and with earnings releases influencing price action, while the BoJ also kick-started its 2-day policy meeting. KOSPI was dragged lower amid losses in tech heavyweights despite stronger-than-expected GDP data and a blockbuster earnings report from SK Hynix. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were positive with the Hong Kong benchmark underpinned amid resilience in the property industry, while the mainland eked slight gains after Premier Li noted China seeks to enhance development momentum and with US Secretary of State Blinken calling for the US and China to manage differences responsibly during a trip to China.
Top Asian News
- China is to speed up the local government special bond offer and is expected to accelerate special bond issuance in Q2 and Q3, according to PBoC-backed Financial News.
- China’s mission to the EU said if the European side suspects the existence of so-called subsidies, it is entirely possible to verify and resolve the situation through communication with the firm or a government department, after Chinese security equipment company Nuctech’s Dutch and Polish offices were raided by EU competition regulators.
- US Secretary of State Blinken called for the US and China to manage differences responsibly, according to AFP.
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said won’t comment on forex levels or intervention but reiterated it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and rapid FX moves are undesirable, while he added they are closely watching FX moves and will be ready to take full response.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said closely watching FX markets and will handle it appropriately.
- South Korea’s market watchdog is preparing a new monitoring system to detect illegal stock short selling with the new mechanism to be implemented in a speedy manner, according to Reuters.
- CNOOC (883 HK) Q1 (CNY): Net 39.7bln (+24% Y/Y). Oil & Gas sales revenue CNY 89.98bln. Total net production -9.9% Y/Y
European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.1%) initially opened mixed, though sentiment quickly soured and indices now hold a negative bias. European sectors hold a negative tilt; Basic Resources is the clear outperformer, with Anglo American (+11.5%) taking the lion’s share of the gains on BHP takeover reports; positive price action in the metals complex is also helping. Food Beverage & Tobacco is found at the foot of the pile, following post-earning losses in Nestle (-3.9%) and Pernod Ricard (-2.9%). US Equity Futures (ES -0.5%, NQ -0.9%, RTY +0.5%) are mixed, with clear underperformance in the tech-heavy NQ, dragged down by Meta (-13%) post-earnings, with IBM (-8%) also fuelling the downside.
Top European News
- ECB’s Schnabel said may face bumpy last mile of disinflation; wage growth seems to be easing in line with projections.
- ECB’s Muller said not comfortable starting with back-to-back cuts, via Bloomberg.
- BHP (BHP AT) confirmed that on the 16th April, it made an offer to Anglo America (AAL LN) regarding a potential combination; valuing Anglo American’s share capital at GBP 31.1bln (vs GBP 25.75bln market cap on Wednesday’s close)
FX
- Dollar is losing ground vs. peers (ex-JPY) with no obvious driver. DXY dipped under yesterday’s 105.59 trough but it remains to be seen how much the dollar is sold ahead of upcoming tier 1 US data.
- EUR is benefiting from the broad softness in USD with EUR/USD eclipsing yesterday’s 1.0714 peak and eyeing the 12th April high at 1.0729.
- GBP is enjoying a session of gains vs. the USD and to a lesser extent the EUR. Cable is back on a 1.25 handle for the first time since April 12th; 1.2558 was the high that day, which roughly coincides with the 200DMA at 1.2557.
- JPY is the only of the majors losing ground to the USD as USD/JPY’s ascent above 155.50 overnight is sustained. Intervention speculation remains. However, comments from an LDP lawmaker yesterday that 160 could be the line of the sand has given USD/JPY bulls confidence to chase prices higher.
- Antipodeans are at the top of the leaderboard for the majors vs. the USD. AUD/USD breached its 200DMA at 0.6526 alongside strength in copper and iron prices.
Fixed Income
- USTs are in consolidation mode below the 108 mark as traders brace for today and tomorrow’s tier 1 US data. For today’s quarterly PCE data, ING notes that a 0.4% MoM reading tomorrow could see Fed easing expectations cut back to just 25bp. Currently USTs remain contained within yesterday’s 107.20-108.02.
- Steady trade for Bunds with macro drivers on the light side, and unreactive to typical hawkish-leaning commentary from ECB’s Muller; Bunds are contained within yesterday’s range with greater attention to the downside with the 10yr just circa 20 ticks above the recent contract low.
- Gilts are marginally firmer in quiet UK trade. However, the modest gains need to be taken in the context of recent selling pressure post-Pill. 96.18 is the high for today but is a far cry from Wednesday’s 96.67 peak.
Commodities
- Choppy sideways trade for the crude complex; initial gains in the morning have now faded, with oil prices now lower on the session; Brent June in a USD 87.80-88.49/bbl parameter.
- Firm bias across precious metals amid a weaker Dollar and as geopolitical risks remain. Price action is more contained ahead of US GDP and PCE. XAU found support at USD overnight support at 2,305/oz before rising to a USD 2,328.88/oz intraday peak.
- Base metals are mostly firmer with clear outperformance in copper prices this morning and gains in iron overnight, with desks citing robust Chinese demand prospects. Elsewhere, mining giant BHP made a takeover offer for peer Anglo American.
Geopolitics
- Russian Foreign Ministry said the appearance of NATO nuclear facilities in Poland makes it a military target for Russia, according to Al Arabiya.
- Belarusian President Lukashenko said probability of incidents on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is quite high; around 120k Ukrainian servicemen deployed near the border; Belarus has moved several battalions of fully operational readiness to the border.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: 1Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.5%, prior 3.4%
- 1Q Personal Consumption, est. 3.0%, prior 3.3%
- 1Q GDP Price Index, est. 3.0%, prior 1.6%
- 1Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 3.4%, prior 2.0%
- 08:30: April Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 212,000
- April Continuing Claims, est. 1.81m, prior 1.81m
- 08:30: March Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%
- March Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%, revised 0.6%
- 08:30: March Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$91b, prior -$91.8b, revised -$90.3b
- 10:00: March Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. 0.4%, prior 1.6%
- March Pending Home Sales YoY, est. -3.0%, prior -2.2%
- 11:00: April Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -5, prior -7
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets have had a challenging 24 hours, and futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.66% overnight after Meta reported a disappointing outlook after the market close. Ahead of that, risk assets had already experienced a mediocre session yesterday, with equities flat in the US but down in Europe, as a bond selloff and geopolitical tensions weighed on sentiment. The losses for bonds didn’t have a single catalyst, but they gathered pace throughout the day, and in Europe it left 10yr yields at their highest levels of 2024 so far. To be honest, there were few assets that did particularly well, with the dollar index (+0.17%) the notable exception. Today will see more tech results come out as well, with Microsoft and Alphabet reporting after the US close.
Kicking off with Meta, its shares fell -15% in after-hours trading yesterday, as even though its Q1 results slightly exceeded revenue and earnings estimates, revenue guidance for Q2 came towards the lower end of analysts’ expectations. The company also raised its cost expectations for 2024, seeing capex spending totalling $35-40bn (vs. $30-37bn earlier guidance). All this led to what was in many ways a mirror image of the reaction to Tesla’s results the day before, with Meta’s outlook disappointing relative to lofty expectations that had seen its shares rise +39.4% year-to-date. Adding to more negative tech sentiment overnight, IBM slumped -8.5% after-market after its own results.
Prior to this, the sizeable bond selloff was the bigger story yesterday. This was most prominent in Europe, leaving yields on 10yr bunds (+8.6bps) at 2.59%, which is their highest level since November. One factor behind that were comments from Bundesbank President Nagel, who cautioned that a rate cut in June “would not necessarily be followed by a series of rate cuts.” So that adds to the suggestions that an initial cut doesn’t have to be followed by lots of further cuts. On top of that, we then got the Ifo’s latest business climate indicator from Germany, which rose to 89.4 in April (vs. 88.8 expected). That was its highest level in 11 months, and the expectations component also hit a one-year high of 89.9 (vs. 88.9 expected). So several headlines leant in a hawkish direction, and that came on top of the positive European PMIs the previous day.
Against that backdrop, markets dialled back their expectations for ECB rate cuts, and the amount priced in by the December meeting came down -3.9bps on the day to 73bps. That meant sovereign bonds lost ground across the continent, and yields on 10yr gilts (+9.3bps), OATs (+9.2bps) and BTPs (+13.8bps) all reached their highest levels year-to-date. Meanwhile in the US, yields on 10yr Treasuries (+4.1bps) closed at 4.64%, just beneath last week’s high for the year, and the 30yr yield (+4.4bps) hit a post-November high of 4.77%.
Higher rates had led to a mixed day for equities prior to Meta’s results. The S&P 500 was flat on the day (+0.02%), with the Magnificent 7 (+0.66%), posting a third consecutive gain thanks to a significant boost from Tesla (+12.06%), which surged after its own results the previous day. But there were also pockets of weakness, especially for the more cyclical sectors, with industrials (-0.79%) seeing the biggest declines, whilst the small-cap Russell 2000 was down -0.36%. Over in Europe, equities saw moderate losses, as the STOXX 600 (-0.43%) erased its earlier gains to close lower.
Sentiment wasn’t helped yesterday by geopolitical developments, and Israel said they had struck around 40 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Currently, investors don’t appear as concerned as they were last week after Iran’s strikes, and Brent crude oil prices actually came down -0.45% to $88.02/bbl. However, there are still nerves about the prospect of a further escalation, and the Israeli shekel (-0.26% against the US Dollar) lost ground after the headlines came through. Otherwise, the VIX index of volatility ticked up again, with a +0.28pts rise to 15.97pts.
Overnight in Asia, equity markets are struggling for the most part, with the Nikkei (-2.00%) experiencing a significant decline. That comes as the Japanese Yen (-0.09%) has posted further losses, falling to its weakest level since 1990 against the US Dollar, at 155.49 per dollar. T he Bank of Japan will also be making their latest policy decision tomorrow. Meanwhile in South Korea, the KOSPI (-1.20%) has also lost ground, even though the Q1 GDP data was much stronger than expected, with quarter-on-quarter growth of +1.3% (vs. +0.6% expected). Nevertheless, other equity indices did post a stronger performance, including the Hang Seng (+0.55%), the CSI 300 (+0.24%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.17%).
Looking forward, we’ll get the first estimate of US GDP for Q1 today, which follows some very strong growth over the previous couple of quarters. Those previous releases showed an annualised growth rate of 4.9% in Q3 and +3.4% in Q4, and for today, the consensus is expecting a deceleration to an annualised 2.5% pace. Otherwise yesterday, US durable goods orders were up +2.6% in March (vs. +2.5% expected), but the previous month’s growth was revised down six-tenths to +0.7%. And for core capital goods orders, they were up +0.2% as expected, but the previous month’s growth was also revised down three-tenths to +0.4%.
To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the initial Q1 GDP reading from the US, along with the weekly initial jobless claims, pending home sales for March, and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index for April. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Schnabel, Vujcic, Nagel and Panetta. And we’ll also get the ECB’s latest Economic Bulletin. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Microsoft, Alphabet, Caterpillar and Intel.
2 B) NOW NEWSQUAWK (EUROPE/REPORT)
NQ dragged lower by Meta (-13%) post-earnings, DXY softer & Antipodeans benefit from metals prices – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, APR 25, 2024 – 05:47 AM
- European bourses are mostly lower, US equities are mixed, with the NQ underperforming after Meta (-13.1%) results
- Dollar is lower, Antipodeans benefit from higher metals prices, JPY is softer holding above 155.50 against the USD
- Bonds are rangebound awaiting impetus from Tier 1 data later today
- Crude is slightly lower in absence of energy-specific newsflow, XAU benefits from the weaker dollar, base metals are mostly firmer
- Looking ahead, US GDP Advance, PCE Advance, Initial Jobless Claims, Comments from ECB’s Nagel & Panetta, Supply from the US, Earnings from Merck, Microsoft, Gilead Sciences, Caterpillar, S&P Global, Intel, T-Mobile US & Alphabet.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses, Stoxx600 (-0.1%) initially opened mixed, though sentiment quickly soured and indices now hold a negative bias.
- European sectors hold a negative tilt; Basic Resources is the clear outperformer, with Anglo American (+11.5%) taking the lion’s share of the gains on BHP takeover reports; positive price action in the metals complex is also helping. Food Beverage & Tobacco is found at the foot of the pile, following post-earning losses in Nestle (-3.9%) and Pernod Ricard (-2.9%).
- US Equity Futures (ES -0.5%, NQ -0.9%, RTY +0.5%) are mixed, with clear underperformance in the tech-heavy NQ, dragged down by Meta (-13%) post-earnings, with IBM (-8%) also fuelling the downside.
- Click here and here for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow.
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FX
- Dollar is losing ground vs. peers (ex-JPY) with no obvious driver. DXY dipped under yesterday’s 105.59 trough but it remains to be seen how much the dollar is sold ahead of upcoming tier 1 US data.
- EUR is benefiting from the broad softness in USD with EUR/USD eclipsing yesterday’s 1.0714 peak and eyeing the 12th April high at 1.0729.
- GBP is enjoying a session of gains vs. the USD and to a lesser extent the EUR. Cable is back on a 1.25 handle for the first time since April 12th; 1.2558 was the high that day, which roughly coincides with the 200DMA at 1.2557.
- JPY is the only of the majors losing ground to the USD as USD/JPY’s ascent above 155.50 overnight is sustained. Intervention speculation remains. However, comments from an LDP lawmaker yesterday that 160 could be the line of the sand has given USD/JPY bulls confidence to chase prices higher.
- Antipodeans are at the top of the leaderboard for the majors vs. the USD. AUD/USD breached its 200DMA at 0.6526 alongside strength in copper and iron prices.
- Click here for more details.
- Click here for NY Option Expiry details.
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are in consolidation mode below the 108 mark as traders brace for today and tomorrow’s tier 1 US data. For today’s quarterly PCE data, ING notes that a 0.4% MoM reading tomorrow could see Fed easing expectations cut back to just 25bp. Currently USTs remain contained within yesterday’s 107.20-108.02.
- Steady trade for Bunds with macro drivers on the light side, and unreactive to typical hawkish-leaning commentary from ECB’s Muller; Bunds are contained within yesterday’s range with greater attention to the downside with the 10yr just circa 20 ticks above the recent contract low.
- Gilts are marginally firmer in quiet UK trade. However, the modest gains need to be taken in the context of recent selling pressure post-Pill. 96.18 is the high for today but is a far cry from Wednesday’s 96.67 peak.
- Click here for more details.
COMMODITIES
- Choppy sideways trade for the crude complex; initial gains in the morning have now faded, with oil prices now lower on the session; Brent June in a USD 87.80-88.49/bbl parameter.
- Firm bias across precious metals amid a weaker Dollar and as geopolitical risks remain. Price action is more contained ahead of US GDP and PCE. XAU found support at USD overnight support at 2,305/oz before rising to a USD 2,328.88/oz intraday peak.
- Base metals are mostly firmer with clear outperformance in copper prices this morning and gains in iron overnight, with desks citing robust Chinese demand prospects. Elsewhere, mining giant BHP made a takeover offer for peer Anglo American.
- Click here for more details.
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- ECB’s Schnabel said may face bumpy last mile of disinflation; wage growth seems to be easing in line with projections.
- ECB’s Muller said not comfortable starting with back-to-back cuts, via Bloomberg.
- BHP (BHP AT) confirmed that on the 16th April, it made an offer to Anglo America (AAL LN) regarding a potential combination; valuing Anglo American’s share capital at GBP 31.1bln (vs GBP 25.75bln market cap on Wednesday’s close)
DATA RECAP
- German GfK Consumer Sentiment (May) -24.2 vs. Exp. -26.0 (Prev. -27.4, Rev. -27.3)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Apple (AAPL) China smartphone shipments grew 6.5% Y/Y to 69.3mln units in Q1, according to data from IDC, while Apple (AAPL) shipments in China fell 6.6% Y/Y in Q1.
- Boeing (BA) DoJ aims to determine by late May if Boeing breached an agreement shielding it from criminal prosecution over 2018 and 2019 fatal crashes, Reuters reports. Families of victims urged prosecution in five-hour meetings on Wednesday. Separately, Boeing said it was disappointed at not advancing in the US Air Force’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft programme, but remains committed to delivering next-gen autonomous combat aircraft, including MQ-25 Stingray, MQ-28 Ghost Bat, and undisclosed proprietary programmes.
EARNINGS
- Meta Platforms Inc (META) Q1 2024 (USD): EPS 4.71 (exp. 4.32), Revenue 36.46bln (exp. 36.16bln), Q2 24 revenue view 36.5-39bln (exp. 38.38bln), FY24 capex view 35-40bln (exp. 34.73bln), also expects capex to increase in FY25 (exp. 37.73bln). Shares are down -12.9% pre-market.
- International Business Machines Corp (IBM) Q1 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.68 (exp. 1.60), Revenue 14.46bln (exp. 14.55bln). Shares are down 8.5% pre-market
- Ford Motor Co (F) Q1 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.49 (exp. 0.42), Revenue 42.8bln (exp. 40.1bln). Shares are up 3.2% pre-market
- Barclays (BARC LN) Q1 (GBP): Investment Bank Revenue 3.33bln (exp. 3.35bln). FICC Revenue 1.4bln (exp. 1.52bln); affirms FY24 NII guidance. CEO said seeing an uptick in deals flow and equity markets
- AstraZeneca (AZN LN) Q1 (USD): Core EPS 2.06 (exp. 1.89). Revenue 12.7bln (exp. 11.9bln); Confirms a 7% increase in the annual dividend announced at AGM.
- Unilever (ULVR LN) Q1 (GBP) Revenue 15bln (exp. 14.7bln). Underlying Sales +4.4% (exp. +3.6%). Co. is increasingly confident in its ability to deliver sustained volume growth and positive mix; affirms FY24 underlying sales growth.
- Nestle (NESN SW) Q1 (CHF): Organic Revenue +1.4% (Exp. 2.9%); Revenue 22.1bln (prev. 23.5bln Y/Y). CEO said “We had expected a slow start and see a strong rebound in Q2 with reliable delivery for the remainder of the year.”
- STMicroelectronics (STM FP) Q1 (USD): Revenue 3.47bln (exp. 3.63bln). Guides Q2 Revenue 3.2bln (exp. 3.8bln) and gross margin 40% (exp. 42.4%). Cuts FY24 Revenue guidance amid slower than expected Auto chip demand, now between 14-15bln (exp. 16.2bln). (Newswires)
GEOPOLITICS
- Russian Foreign Ministry said the appearance of NATO nuclear facilities in Poland makes it a military target for Russia, according to Al Arabiya.
- Belarusian President Lukashenko said probability of incidents on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is quite high; around 120k Ukrainian servicemen deployed near the border; Belarus has moved several battalions of fully operational readiness to the border.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was ultimately flat in choppy trade and briefly approached near the USD 64,000 level.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mostly subdued after the uninspiring handover from the US where futures were pressured after-hours following Meta’s underwhelming guidance, while the region also digested several earnings releases and markets in both Australia and New Zealand markets were closed for ANZAC Day.
- Nikkei 225 underperforms and retreated beneath the 38,000 level amid tech weakness and with earnings releases influencing price action, while the BoJ also kick-started its 2-day policy meeting.
- KOSPI was dragged lower amid losses in tech heavyweights despite stronger-than-expected GDP data and a blockbuster earnings report from SK Hynix.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were positive with the Hong Kong benchmark underpinned amid resilience in the property industry, while the mainland eked slight gains after Premier Li noted China seeks to enhance development momentum and with US Secretary of State Blinken calling for the US and China to manage differences responsibly during a trip to China.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China is to speed up the local government special bond offer and is expected to accelerate special bond issuance in Q2 and Q3, according to PBoC-backed Financial News.
- China’s mission to the EU said if the European side suspects the existence of so-called subsidies, it is entirely possible to verify and resolve the situation through communication with the firm or a government department, after Chinese security equipment company Nuctech’s Dutch and Polish offices were raided by EU competition regulators.
- US Secretary of State Blinken called for the US and China to manage differences responsibly, according to AFP.
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said won’t comment on forex levels or intervention but reiterated it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and rapid FX moves are undesirable, while he added they are closely watching FX moves and will be ready to take full response.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said closely watching FX markets and will handle it appropriately.
- South Korea’s market watchdog is preparing a new monitoring system to detect illegal stock short selling with the new mechanism to be implemented in a speedy manner, according to Reuters.
- CNOOC (883 HK) Q1 (CNY): Net 39.7bln (+24% Y/Y). Oil & Gas sales revenue CNY 89.98bln. Total net production -9.9% Y/Y
APAC DATA RECAP
- South Korean GDP QQ Advance (Q1) 1.3% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%); GDP YY Advance (Q1) 3.4% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.2%)
3C ASIA AFFAIRS/
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.08 PTS OR 0.27% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 83,27PTS OR 0.48% / Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 831,60PTS OR 2.16% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.01%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP 7.2460//OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN CLOSED UP TO 7.26750 Oil UP TO 82.97dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 88.18 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY MIXED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
2 d./NORTH KOREA/ SOUTH KOREA/
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA/USA
China holds the future of US debt in her hands
Now that short-term funding through Treasury bills must be nearly exhausted, how will the US Treasury fund the budget deficit, running at well over $3 trillion this year?
| MACLEODFINANCE APR 25∙ |
According to the US Treasury, the two largest buyers of US Treasuries have been Japan and China. Japan is now the largest holder, but this reflects the interests of mainly pension funds, insurance companies, and a carry trade. Most of the $775 billion recorded as Chinese is the Chinese government itself, making it by far and away the single largest holder. This is because China exercises exchange controls, thereby limiting foreign investment by domestic institutions. And in the past the Peoples Bank has accumulated dollars and US Treasuries (and gold) as a consequence of trade surpluses.
Britain and others are also listed as major holders. But as in Japan’s case, these are not holdings of government agencies and cannot be influenced by the US Treasury directly. This is why the US Treasury is liaising with the Peoples Bank and China’s treasury officials, trying to persuade them not to sell but to buy more US Treasuries. Being in a debt trap, the Americans will be desperate to secure funding without interest costs rising making a deteriorating government debt position even worse.
So far this fiscal year, the Treasury has been funding its deficit through Treasury bills, short-term discounted instruments for which it currently pays the equivalent of over 5%. But there comes a point where excess liquidity in money funds and bank balance sheets runs out, and the Treasury must contemplate term funding along the yield curve. Banks will be reluctant to take on duration risk, and anyway will want to reduce their balance sheet leverage in a struggling economy. As the largest single holder of US Treasuries this is why China matters.
China’s authorities now have an important decision to make. Do they bail out the Americans, or do they cut their losses on $775 billion?
An enormous geopolitical event approaches
If China refuses to buy more US Treasuries, and we must be talking about significant quantities, bond yields will rise threatening to destabilise both the US financial system and the global (western) economy. In theory, there may be a deal to be done. In exchange for bailing out the US Treasury, the administration could guarantee continued access to US markets, taking tariff increases and sanctions off the table. But Yellen has already criticised China for subsiding production, in her words threatening US jobs. Furthermore, Trump is likely to be the next US President: with his anti-trade policies all bets are off with respect to trade guarantees. And the Americans have proved to be consistently unreliable parties to agreements.
The funding quantity required is probably far larger than the Chinese government could consider underwriting even as a marginal buyer. Furthermore, it would go against her policy agreed with Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and others to do away with the dollar over time. Instead of rescuing the Americans from their debt trap and not jeopardising her exports, China appears to have little alternative to letting events evolve without their intervention.
It is this realisation which has probably led to the Peoples Bank selling dollars for gold. Other Asian nations will have seen this coming, from Japan to Hong Kong and even Taiwan. Without a key foreign buyer, a funding crisis is likely to rapidly spread, putting off other foreign buyers and even domestic US institutions. The Bank for International Settlements has also warned us about the problem.
No foreign investor in his right mind should buy US treasuries. Bond yields could begin to rise with surprising rapidity: no wonder the chart below rings alarm bells.
The chart confirms that having completed a bullish golden cross in mid-February, bond yields are headed higher, consistent with a developing debt funding crisis. Including funding costs, the current fiscal year’s budget deficit will probably exceed $3 trillion. By way of confirmation, Treasury debt recently took only 90 days to increase by a trillion, an annualised rate of $4 trillion, confirming that the deficit is turning out to be considerably worse than government forecasts.
China sees it, and in an election year knows that it will be virtually impossible for the Americans to adopt any discipline on the budget deficit. We can only conclude that China is exceedingly unlikely to bail out the US Government. Other than protecting her exports to the US, it is becoming indefensible to throw good money after bad. With her SCO and BRICS allies, she must prepare for a dollar crisis, which will undermine the purchasing power of the other major currencies in the western alliance. It will mark the largest geopolitical event since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the death of Mao.
Embracing reality
China has been preparing for this event for decades. In Marxist universities they taught that capitalism would eventually destroy itself, and that the capitalist currencies would lose credibility. The current generation of US-educated Chinese movers and thinkers may have forgotten this, but the old guard has not which is why China still hoards gold. All indications are that China has had a policy of accumulating gold since 1983, when the Peoples Bank was appointed to manage the accumulation of gold and silver bullion. Do not be surprised if this forty-year policy of accumulation leaves the Chinese government with over 30,000 tonnes in addition to the PBOC’s official reserves.
Belatedly, Russia has begun to rebuild her gold reserves, and is known to have gold in two state wealth funds. The quantity is unknown, but usually reliable sources suggest that together with her central bank Russia can command about 12,000 tonnes. If so, then she has gold reserves well in excess of those of the US whose quantity is widely believed to be overstated.
Predominantly an exporter of energy, Russia has concentrated on forging relations with oil producers, notably Iran and the Saudis. Russia is the ringmaster for Asian energy security, allowing Asia to be independent from US economic and political policies. And increasing hostility from America and her NATO allies has persuaded Putin that the Americans must be driven from Eurasia, including Eastern Europe, as well as the Middle East.
Put bluntly, removing a belligerent America and her currency from Asia is the joint objective of Russia and China, while a desperate America is determined to cling on to her Asian footholds with the assistance of her compliant allies.
The war in Ukraine is gradually being won by Russia, and with the ground drying out the fighting season is resuming. In anticipation of this escalation, the Biden administration has passed a bill providing an extra $60.84 billion in military aid for Ukraine: it is desperate for Ukraine not to be defeated before the presidential election in November. But given that Ukraine’s dwindling ammunition stocks will be replenished in a few weeks, we can now expect Russia to increase her efforts to bring the war to a close.
In the Middle East, America is trying hard not to be drawn into attacking Iran directly. But there is little doubt that it is getting increasingly involved behind the scenes, as indeed are Russia and China. That the US, UK, and Jordan led the shooting-down of Iranian drones and missiles is public knowledge. But that Iran is using China’s Beidou satellite navigation system in conjunction with Russia’s GLONASS satellites for precision weapons guidance has escaped media attention. As journalist Pepe Escobar points out, this is BRICS+ cooperation with Asia coming together against American hegemony.
The message for America is to butt out of West Asian affairs, just as it is to get out of Ukraine. And at the eastern end of the continent, China has conflicts with America over Taiwan and the wider eastern Pacific. The two Asian hegemons must feel that they have the Americans on the run. But the enemy is still dangerous.
Outright military confrontation is obviously unpredictable and risky, with the western belligerents already moving onto war footings. As Viktor Orban of Hungary put it on Tuesday, “Today in Brussels the majority are parties of war. A military mood reigns in Europe and politics are governed by the logic of war. Everyone from all sides is preparing for war”.
Putin might take the view that with a weak US President in his election year, it is a good time to challenge American resolve. The stage is set for an escalation of hostilities over Ukraine which could get rapidly out of control.
Why China will not extend more credit to the US
For China, it is increasingly obvious that the glory days of building her economy on the back of exports to western trade partners are over. Not only is she facing increasing hostility led by US propaganda, but to continue to protect this trade will be at the expense of her influence over global affairs. Instead, she must concentrate on the development of trans-Asian economic potential with her African and Latin American supply chains.
Achieving her macro-objectives increasingly requires American belligerence to be neutralised, and the best way to do this without being noticed is to simply allow the US to drift into bankruptcy by denying her additional debt funding. It may also be in her interests to ensure that her rejection of dollar credit extension is noted by her allies, so that foreign funding is effectively closed off to the US Treasury.
Inevitably, the dollar’s value and those of aligned fiat currencies will become rapidly undermined as the dollar debt trap slams shut. China and Russia will have to protect their currencies by introducing credible gold standards. Other nations in their spheres of influence will have to make similar arrangements, either linking their currencies to golden roubles or renminbi, or to their own gold reserves.
We appear to be rapidly approaching an inflection point, whereby the only way to avoid WW3 is for China and Russia to emasculate America and her allies financially.
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
END
EUROPE//
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS.
END.
ISRAEL//IRAN
Finally these bozos saw the light…
(Jerusalem Post)
Iran smacked with EU resolution, US may construct pier off Gaza
Hamas suggests it’s open to disarmament • IDF brings Gaza tactics to West Bank • Haredi youths attempt Nablus tomb break-in
EU Parliament votes in favour of resolution against Iran,
On Thursday, the EU parliament voted to condemn Iran, showing its support for Israel and acknowledging the role Iran plays in destabilizing the region.
In an unprecedented vote, the European Parliament passed a resolution against the Islamic Republic of Iran on Thursday.
The resolution condemned Iran for its attack on Israel and reinforced the European commitment to the security of the State of Israel.
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz praised the European Parliament for its vote in favor of a resolution. It follows last Monday’s decision by the European Union to sanction Iran in order to curtail missile and drone production.
“Another Israeli political success and another blow to Iran,” Katz said. “We are tightening the chokehold around the neck of the Iranian octopus. The world understands that Iran needs to be stopped now before it is too late.”Go to the full article >>
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON
end
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH
ISRAEL/HAMAS
IDF ready to conquer Gaza’s Rafah, awaiting government okay, says senior official
Israeli generals said to meet Egyptian counterparts to coordinate evacuation of civilians from southern city, seen as last major Hamas redoubt in Strip
makeshift tent camp for displaced Palestinians in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on April 4, 2024. (Mohammed Abed/AFP)
The Israel Defense Forces has conducted all necessary preparations to take Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah and can launch an operation the moment it gets government approval, a senior Israeli defense official said Wednesday.
Israel deems Rafah the last Hamas bastion in the Gaza Strip and is poised to evacuate Palestinian civilians from there and assault Hamas holdouts, the unnamed official told the Reuters news agency, which didn’t specify whether the source was connected to the IDF.
A spokesperson for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government told the agency that Israel was “moving ahead” with a ground operation, but gave no timeline.
Meanwhile, multiple Israeli reports indicated that top Israeli security officials visited Egypt Wednesday to coordinate the planned offensive in Rafah.
The officials included IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and Shin Bet head Ronen Bar, according to Channel 13 news. Axios reported that the officials had met Egypt’s intelligence chief Abbas Kamel and Chief of Staff Osama Askar, amid fears in Cairo that an offensive could create a humanitarian catastrophe that will drive tens of thousands of Gazans to breach the border and enter Egypt.
(Mohammed Abed/AFP)
The Israel Defense Forces has conducted all necessary preparations to take Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah and can launch an operation the moment it gets government approval, a senior Israeli defense official said Wednesday.
Israel deems Rafah the last Hamas bastion in the Gaza Strip and is poised to evacuate Palestinian civilians from there and assault Hamas holdouts, the unnamed official told the Reuters news agency, which didn’t specify whether the source was connected to the IDF.
A spokesperson for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government told the agency that Israel was “moving ahead” with a ground operation, but gave no timeline.UNRWA RallyKeep Watching
Meanwhile, multiple Israeli reports indicated that top Israeli security officials visited Egypt Wednesday to coordinate the planned offensive in Rafah.
The officials included IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and Shin Bet head Ronen Bar, according to Channel 13 news. Axios reported that the officials had met Egypt’s intelligence chief Abbas Kamel and Chief of Staff Osama Askar, amid fears in Cairo that an offensive could create a humanitarian catastrophe that will drive tens of thousands of Gazans to breach the border and enter Egypt.
Egypt, which Rafah abuts, has said it warned Israel against pushing into the city. Such a move, Egypt’s State Information Service said, “would lead to massive human massacres, losses [and] widespread destruction.”
File: Shin Bet head Ronen Bar, center, speaks to IDF chief of staff Herzi Halevi, right, during a hostage rescue operation in southern Gaza’s Rafah, February 12, 2024. (Shin Bet)
Israel says victory in the Gaza war, which began with Hamas’s cross-border massacre and kidnapping spree on October 7, is impossible without taking Rafah, crushing the Palestinian terror group and recovering any hostages there.
The IDF said earlier Wednesday that it was readying to deploy two reserve brigades for missions in the Gaza Strip, apparently as part of its plan to remove Hamas from Rafah.
The 679th “Yiftah” Armored Brigade and the 2nd “Carmeli” Infantry Brigade, which had been operating on the northern border, were set to take responsibility for areas of central Gaza that have remained under Israeli military control since troops largely pulled back from other areas of the Strip earlier this month, according to an Army Radio report.
The move will free up Nahal Brigade troops currently holding the central corridor to join the rest of the 162nd Division in preparing for future operations, including planned offensives in Rafah and central Gaza, military sources said.
roops operate in Gaza in an undated photo released by the military for publication on April 24, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
Israeli officials said Hamas has six remaining battalions in the Gaza Strip, including four in the southern city of Rafah: Yabna (South); Shaboura (North); Tel Sultan (West); and East Rafah. Two more Hamas battalions remain in central Gaza, in the Nuseirat and Deir al-Balah camps.
The IDF has so far operated across northern Gaza and Gaza City, in some parts of central Gaza, and in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis, saying it has dismantled the 18 Hamas battalions there.
The fighting has pushed an estimated million displaced Gazan civilians into Rafah, with the international community, including the United States, warning that an offensive in the city could significantly worsen an already dire humanitarian crisis.
“I have to make a decision whether to leave Rafah because my mother and I are afraid an invasion could happen suddenly and we won’t get time to escape,” said Aya, 30, who has been living temporarily in the city with her family in a school.
She said that some families recently moved to a refugee camp in coastal Al-Mawasi, but their tents caught fire when tank shells landed nearby. “Where do we go?”
irls peer through the hole left by a destroyed window from a building in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on April 24, 2024. (Mohammed Abed/AFP)
While not discussing specific battle plans, the Israeli military has increasingly signaled readiness to move on Rafah, after pushing off the offensive for over a month to allow for truce talks aimed at freeing the 133 hostages that are believed to still be held in the Strip and to hear out US concerns about its plans for fighting in the city.
“Hamas was hit hard in the northern sector. It was also hit hard in the center of the Strip. And soon it will be hit hard in Rafah, too,” Brig. Gen. Itzik Cohen, commander of the 162nd Division operating in Gaza, told the Kan public broadcaster in an interview aired on Tuesday.
“Hamas should know that when the IDF goes into Rafah, it would do best to raise its hands in surrender. Rafah will not be the Rafah of today… There won’t be munitions there. And there won’t be hostages there,” he said.
Israel has procured tens of thousands of tents for Palestinian civilians it intends to evacuate from Rafah in the coming weeks, Israeli sources said on Wednesday.
After weeks of talks with the US about civilian safeguards, the Defense Ministry has bought 40,000 tents, each with the capacity for 10 to 12 people, for Palestinians relocated from Rafah, Israeli government sources said.
Video circulated online appeared to show rows of square white tents going up in Khan Younis, a city some 5 kilometers (3 miles) from Rafah. Images from satellite company Maxar showing multiple tent camps on Khan Younis land that had been vacant on April 7.
end
This is probably correct: pro Palestinian protests are being hijacked by Marxists who want to destroy capitalism, freedom and democracy
(zerohedge)
Are Pro-Palestinian Protests Being Hijacked By Marxists To “Destroy Capitalism, Freedom & Democracy”?
WEDNESDAY, APR 24, 2024 – 10:30 PM
Just over a week ago, we asked our readers a very straightforward question: Who is funding this chaos? This question followed incidents where pro-Palestinian protesters disrupted critical infrastructure, such as shutting down airport terminals, blocking bridges, causing major traffic congestion on highway arteries, and targeting the distribution networks of major corporations.
So, what does shutting down critical infrastructure have to do with helping poor Palestinian children? It has absolutely nothing and more to do with a Marxist movement, similar to the Black Lives Matter movement several years ago, with the one goal to crash the US economy, destroy freedom, and abolish democracy.
Mike Shelby, a former military intelligence non-commissioned officer and contractor, and now the CEO of intelligence services company Forward Observer, sheds more color on a leftist revolutionary group that is very active today and responsible for some of the chaos in 2020 called “A15.”
“A15 is actually a reprise of efforts from Antifa and the far-left revolutionary class we saw in 2020. these activists and militants were making plans to oust then-President Donald Trump if he stayed in office,” Shelby wrote on X.
Post
See new posts
Conversation
Mike Shelby | Do Your Area Study
for those who missed it last week, the A15 “day of action” is just the latest iteration from groups also involved in 2020. as paul harvey would say, here’s the rest of the story…
He said, “Their plan was to effectively shut down the US economy to force Trump out of the White House,” adding, “Activists publicly stated they would keep the economy disrupted until Trump caved to public pressure and resigned.” He warned, “That was their plan and probably still is.”
their plan was to effectively shut down the u.s. economy to force trump out of the white house. activists publicly stated they would keep the economy disrupted until trump caved to public pressure and resigned. that was their plan and probably still is.
·
7,210 Views
for the rest of the commentary
erohedge.com/political/are-pro-palestinian-protests-being-hijacked-marxists-destroy-capitalism-freedom-democracy
end
ISRAEL/GAZA
US-Led Gaza Pier Project Comes Under Mortar Fire As UN Officials Tour Site
THURSDAY, APR 25, 2024 – 02:45 PM
The US military’s ambitious project to erect a large pier off Gaza’s coast (all within a war zone) to allow maritime shipments of humanitarian aid to Palestinians is off to a rocky start, after new reports that the construction site has come under fire.
UN officials were reportedly present at the location on Thursday when it came under attack by unknown gunmen, forcing the visiting delegation to take cover. Hamas has previously warned that it plans to resist any foreign military entity on Gaza’s territory, which would include the US forces constructing the pier. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued a statement blaming Palestinian terrorists for the attack (either Hamas or PIJ/Islamic Jihad), which included the launching of mortars.
IRAN/
how awful!
(Jerusalem Post)
Popular Iranian Rapper Sentenced To Death For Supporting ‘Anti-Hijab Protests’
WEDNESDAY, APR 24, 2024 – 06:30 PM
A 33-year old Iranian activist and rapper who has recently been involved in anti-government demonstrations has been handed a shockingly draconian sentence by an Iranian court. Toomaj Salehi was first arrested in Oct. 2022 for publicly backing the so-called ‘anti-hijab’ protests which swept the ultra-conservative Islamic country. But this week…
“Branch 1 of Isfahan Revolutionary Court… sentenced Salehi to death on the charge of corruption on Earth,” his lawyer quoted the court’s ruling as saying. The state laid out its case focused on a highly ambiguous charge of spreading “propaganda”.
Salehi’s lawyer further described that the court “in an unprecedented move, emphasised its independence and did not implement the Supreme Court’s ruling” – while noting that “we will certainly appeal against the sentence.”
The charges further centered on the Revolutionary Court accusing him of “assistance in sedition, assembly and collusion, propaganda against the system and calling for riots.”
In September of 2022, Iran’s Islamic ‘morality police’ arrested 22-year old Iranian Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini for “improper hijab” as she entered a subway station. Activists say she had been beaten and later died in custody, while Iranian authorities claim she suffered a natural health episode (state media and officials described it as a heart attack), fainted and hit her head on the ground.
Her death sparked months of protests across major cities featuring anti-government slogans and clashes with police. Some international reports say that in total over 500 demonstrators died, while reports said dozens of police and security service personnel were killed and wounded.
Iranian authorities at the time attempted to tie the raging domestic unrest to an externally supported destabilization campaign by Tehran’s enemies Israel and the United States.
As for the rapper and his immense popularity and influence in Iran, Sky News has observed that “Salehi, who has 2.3 million followers on Instagram, had posted videos after Amini’s death talking about ‘revolution’ and resistance.” According more of his background:
His songs also highlight the widening gap between ordinary Iranians and the country’s leadership, accusing authorities of “suffocating” the people without regard for their well-being.
His angry lyrics resonate among Iranians who are increasingly discontent and alienated by Iran’s clerical establishment — and by the politicians who fail to keep their promises of change.
Salehi has shared his songs on his Instagram and Twitter accounts. But those accounts became inaccessible while he was in custody.
An sample of his music:
Iran (alongside Saudi Arabia and Egypt) leads the Middle East in number of executions each year. In 2023 alone, Iran hanged at least 834 people, which was an 8-year high. This is partly because the Islamic Republic has recently launched a new ‘war on drugs’ crackdown, but also amid geopolitical tensions it has executed suspected spies in greater numbers.
end
IRAN/ISRAEL
a must read.//Brandon Smith
Iran Vs Israel: What Happens Next Now That Shots Have Been Fired?
(BRANDON SMITH)
THURSDAY, APR 25, 2024 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,
In October of 2023 in my article ‘It’s A Trap! The Wave Of Repercussions As The Middle East Fights “The Last War”’ I predicted that a multi-front war was about to develop between Israel and various Muslim nations including Lebanon and Iran. I noted:
“Israel is going to pound Gaza into gravel, there’s no doubt about that. A ground invasion will meet far more resistance than the Israelis seem to expect, but Israel controls the air and Gaza is a fixed target with limited territory. The problem for them is not the Palestinians, but the multiple war fronts that will open up if they do what I think they are about to do (attempted sanitization). Lebanon, Iran and Syria will immediately engage and Israel will not be able to fight them all…”
So far, both Lebanon and Iran have directly engaged Israeli military forces and civilian targets. Syrian militias are also declaring they will once again start attacking US military bases in the region. In my article ‘World War III Is Now Inevitable – Here’s Why It Can’t Be Avoided’ published on April 5th I noted that:
“I warned months ago…that the war in Gaza would expand into a multi-front conflict that would probably include Iran. I also warned that it would be to Israel’s benefit if Iran entered the war because this would eventually force the US to become directly involved. To be sure, Iran has already been engaging in proxy attacks on Israel through Lebanon, but Israel’s attack on the Iranian “embassy” or diplomatic station in Syria basically ensures that Iran will now directly commit to strikes on Israeli targets.”
Iran did indeed commit to a large scale missile and drone based attack on Israel, a situation which has had some curious consequences. Of course, US naval forces aided Israel’s Iron Dome in shooting down the majority of drones and missiles sent by Iran. However, even though there are several videos showing that some cruise missiles hit their targets, the Israelis have been reticent to admit that any damage was done.
I suspect it’s because the cruise missiles struck military targets instead of civilian targets and Israel doesn’t want to release any information on what was hit. Iran’s drones were likely meant to act as decoys for anti-air defenses. They are much cheaper than the missiles used by Israel and the US to shoot them down.
Whether or not these strikes had any real affect on Israeli offensive capabilities we’ll probably never know. What we do know is that Israel’s counter-strike was much smaller than most analysts expected. Does this mean that the tit-for-tat is over and both sides are going hands-off? That would probably be the smart decision, but no, that’s not what’s happening here.
Israel’s limited response was likely due to a lack of clarity on how much the US government under Biden is willing to participate in the war during an election year. What we will see in the next six months is a steady escalation towards winter, followed by new bombardments with far more extensive destruction than we recently witnessed.
In other words, spring is just the dress rehearsal for what will happen in winter.
Here are the most probable scenarios as 2024 rolls forward…
Air Strikes On Iran
I have little doubt that Israel will commit to extensive aerial strikes on Iran this year or very early in 2025, and we’ll see very quickly if Russian air defense technology sold to the Iranians is effective or ineffective. Iran’s drone program may be useful in helping to even the playing field against Israeli fighter jets, but then again, the technology gap could be extensive.
The Israeli public position will be that their strikes are focused on taking down any existing Iranian nuclear labs. There is no solid evidence that Iran has made much headway in developing nukes (they might have dirty bombs), but the notion of nukes is more than enough in terms of public relations and justification for the war.
Iran Blocks The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz would be at the top of the list of primary targets for Iran. It is the narrowest point of access to the Persian Gulf and oversees the passage of around 25%-30% of the world’s total oil exports. Blocking it is relatively easy – All Iran has to do is sink a few tankers into the shallow waters or destroy enemy ships passing through, creating a barrier that will make transport of oil impossible.
This would also make naval operations for Israel or the US difficult. Clearing obstructions would take time and expose forces to Iranian artillery which can be fired from up to 450 miles away. Once artillery is locked in on a narrow point or pasage, nothing is going to get through. As we’ve seen in Ukraine, a blanket of artillery fire is essentially unstoppable.
Anti-ship missiles wouldn’t even be necessary and would probably prove less effective, unless they are hypersonic. Iran can also utilize its small fleet of diesel submarines to deploy naval mines in the strait.
Once the Hormuz is disrupted and global oil shipments slow down the US military will join the war if they haven’t done so already.
Israeli Attack Leads To Ground War With Iran/Lebanon
A ground war between Iran and Israel is inevitable if the tit-for-tat continues, and much of it will be fought (at least in the beginning) in Lebanon and perhaps Syria. Iran has a mutual defense pact with both countries and Lebanon is generally a proxy for Iranian defense policy.
Iran will have active troops or proxy forces in all of these regions, not to mention the Houthis in Yemen striking ships in the Red Sea. There are questions in terms of how Iraq will respond to this situation, but there’s not a lot of love between the current government and Israel or the US.
The Iraq government did not initially condemn the attack by Hamas against Israel on October 7th and has voiced support for the Palestinians in Gaza. It’s unlikely that they would willingly allow the use of their territory for projecting an offensive against Iran. The use of Saudi Arabian and Kuwaiti territory is possible for invasion IF the US gets involved, and the Persian Gulf would be a primary point of attack. But, both the US and Israel lack enough regional bases needed to project large scale ground forces into Iran (keep in mind that bases in Afghanistan are now gone).
Turkey is another staging ground for US forces but they certainly don’t like Israel, meaningTurkey is going to be off limits. Like Iraq, I think it will be difficult to convince Turkey, a vocal defender of Gaza, to support an invasion force or exploit their border for operations.
What about Pakistan? No, not a chance. It’s important to remember that many of these nations have worked with the US in the past, but they have angry populations to deal with. Support for an attack on Iran could lead to civil unrest at home.
The war would mostly be fought by air and by sea with US and Israel seeking to dominate the Persian Gulf. A lot of the ground fighting will be done in neighboring countries. A direct invasion of Iran would be an exhaustive affair with mountain terrain that must be reached by going through allied territories.
Can it be done? Yes. Could the US and Israel/allies win? Yes, as long as the goal is destruction and not occupation. Would it be costly? Absolutely. Far too costly to be acceptable to the western public these days, and a war that would require extensive military recruitment or a draft which Americans in particular will not tolerate.
Gas Prices Skyrocket
Think gas prices are high now? Just wait until 25% of the world oil exports are locked out of the market for months at a time. We might see double the prices at the pump; perhaps even triple, and that’s not counting the inflationary conditions already ongoing in the west.
This would be a disaster for the economy as energy prices affect EVERYTHING else. Costs on the shelf will climb right along with oil.
Military Draft And Attacks On Liberty Activists
Below the surface, there are many benefits to expanding the war in the Middle East for the globalists. War can be blamed for the inflationary collapse they created. War can be used as an excuse to implement even more aggressive censorship standards in Europe and the US. War can be used to create a military draft which will trigger great unrest in the US and some parts of the EU. War could invariably be used to rationalize martial law. And, it could even be used to stall or disrupt elections.
At bottom, the war in Ukraine, the war in the Middle East and the many other regional wars that will probably erupt in the next few years have a cumulative effect that causes confusion and chaos. All that is needed is a short period of disarray and a lot of economic panic and the public may even forget who created the mess in the first place Liberty activists caught in the middle of these events will take action to defend their freedoms, and I have no doubt we will be accused of “aiding foreign enemies” or working as “agents of the Russians, Iranians, etc.”
Russian Involvement And World War
Given that NATO has seen fit to engage in a proxy war in Ukraine it makes sense that Russia would return the favor and engage in a proxy war in Iran. Don’t be surprised to see a lot of discussion in the media in the coming months about Russian “advisers” in Iran as well as Russian weaponry. Russia already has military bases in Syria and defense agreements with Iran. It would appear that the US and allies are being set on a collision course with Russia that will lead to direct kinetic interactions.
At this stage world war will already be well underway. Russia and the US may never actually try to strike each other’s territory and nuclear exchange makes little sense for anyone (especially the globalists who would lose their financial and surveillance empire in the blink of an eye) but they will be fighting each other in regional wars in multiple spots across the globe. It seems to me that this process has already been set in motion, and once the avalanche starts, it’s very hard to stop.
* * *
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RUSSIA/UKRAINE/
Biden’s 60 billion aid pkg to Ukraine cannot fix their manpower and recruitment crisis
(Zerohedge)
Biden’s $60BN Can’t Fix Ukraine’s Manpower & Recruitment Crisis
WEDNESDAY, APR 24, 2024 – 09:10 PM
With Biden’s $60 billion in funding for Ukraine now fully authorized and implemented, the question is now what? The US President on Wednesday announced just after signing the bill that the Pentagon will start sending equipment to Ukraine “in the next few hours” straight from the US stockpile.
The Kremlin in response is vowing to push back the front lines deeper into Ukraine, and says that newly infused American weapons will burn. Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov has said in fresh remarks that “The American aid won’t save Zelensky. New weapons will be destroyed, and the special military operation goals will be achieved.”
The diplomat continued, “the military shipments of the US and its satellites have been burned, are being burned and will be burned by the Russian Armed Forces.”
Wednesday afternoon comments by Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan hailed that the long sought defense aid for Kiev has finally become a reality, but also cautioned that Russia could still break through Ukrainian defensive positions soon.
“It was a long road to secure this funding, and I have to say standing here today, it was too long, and the consequences of the delay have been felt in Ukraine,” Sullivan told reporters, and explained that troops have had to resort to rationing ammunition, resulting in lost ground in the east.
“And while today’s announcement is very good news for Ukraine, they are still under severe pressure on the battlefield. And it is certainly possible that Russia could make additional tactical gains in the coming weeks,” he warned.
The reality is that Ukraine is fundamentally suffering a severe crisis of manpower. This essentially means that even as US weapons and equipment arrive, there are fewer and fewer troops experienced enough to actually man and operate them.
This is a grim trend which has especially been on display this week, for example in a Tuesday announcement by Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who said the government would be cutting off consular services for military-age men living abroad. The move is to encourage them to return home and fight for their country.
“How it looks like now: a man of conscription age went abroad, showed his state that he does not care about its survival, and then comes and wants to receive services from this state,” the top diplomat wrote on X. “It does not work this way. Our country is at war.”
“The obligation to update one’s documents with the conscription centers existed even before the new law on mobilization was passed,” Kuleba also explained. The new policy requires that all men 18 to 60 must update their information with a state office – and if they don’t comply then they get cut off from all consular services abroad.
According to The New York Times, US weapons could start arriving in Ukraine within days. But on parts of the front line, Ukraine’s situation is desperate. And it still has a major problem that aid can’t fix: a lack of troops.
“The most important source of Ukrainian weakness is the lack of manpower,” Konrad Muzyka, director of the Rochan military consultancy in Poland, told Reuters. –Business Insider
Meanwhile, inside Ukraine military officials are trying to get creative amid the ongoing manpower shortage. Reuters reports, “As Ukraine’s efforts to conscript enough men to fight Russia are stymied by public skepticism, defense officials and military units are embarking on a multi-pronged charm offensive to recruit a citizens’ army to resist the invasion.”
The “Experts” are finally admitting that Russia is winning the war in Ukraine, but they are still lying about why. The reason is not congressional inaction over further funding. The reason is that Russia has more manpower than Ukraine; it produces more artillery than the West; and it has air superiority. Russia has been using its air power to devastate Ukrainian infrastructure and military positions with enormous FAB bombs. The US doesn’t produce enough air defense to change that reality, especially in light of all the competing demands for that limited supply. In any event, what will happen now is that the Ukraine funding bill will pass, but it won’t change the outcome of the war. What it will do is line a lot of pockets, perhaps for the final time, which is the real objective here.
·
“This softer call-up is being conducted on job-search sites and outreach centers, as well as billboards and social media, and offers a wartime novelty: an element of choice,” the report continues. “Candidates can select their precise unit and roles suiting their skills, for instance, as well as how long they will serve.”
And yet we are likely to still witness more examples of recruitment officers brutally seizing young men off the streets, as was seen at various times over the course of the first two years of the war.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
Russia will not like this; USA armed Ukraine with long range ATACMs
(zerohedge/DeCamp)
US Secretly Armed Ukraine With Long-Range ATACMS Last Month
THURSDAY, APR 25, 2024 – 08:25 AM
Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,
The US confirmed on Wednesday that it had secretly sent Ukraine long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) last month as part of a $300 million arms package.
The long-range ATACMS can be fired from the HIMARS rocket systems and can hit targets up to 190 miles away, a range that marks a significant escalation in US support for Ukraine.
Last year, the US secretly shipped an older cluster bomb variant of the ATACMS that has a range of about 100 miles. Previously the Pentagon signaled it was intentionally limiting ranges of missiles shipped to Ukraine.
A Biden administration official said Ukraine has already used the longer-range ATACMS twice, including in an attack on a Russian base in Crimea. US-supported attacks on Crimea or the Russian mainland always risk a major escalation from Moscow.
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said a “significant number” of the ATACMS have been sent to Ukraine but wouldn’t specify how many.
He said more were on the way as part of a $1 billion arms package that President Biden approved on Wednesday, although the Pentagon didn’t list ATACMS when it announced the weapons shipment.
The $95 billion foreign military aid bill President Biden signed into law on Wednesday included a provision that said Ukraine would be sent long-range ATACMS.
In response to that news, the Kremlin reaffirmed its long-stated position that it will take more territory in Ukraine to counteract the long-range NATO missiles.
END
RUSSIA/USA/JPMORGAN
Two can play the same game. Russia seizes $440 million of JPMorgan assets
(zerohedge)
Russia To Seize $440 Million From JPMorgan
THURSDAY, APR 25, 2024 – 10:45 AM
Seizing assets? Two can play at that game…
Just days after Washington voted to authorize the REPO Act – paving the way for the Biden administration confiscate billions in Russian sovereign assets which sit in US banks – it appears Moscow has a plan of its own (let’s call it the REVERSE REPO Act) as a Russian court has ordered the seizure of $440 million from JPMorgan.
The seizure order follows from Kremlin-run lender VTB launching legal action against the largest US bank to recoup money stuck under Washington’s sanctions regime.
As The FT reports, the order, published in the Russian court register on Wednesday, targets funds in JPMorgan’s accounts and shares in its Russian subsidiaries, according to the ruling issued by the arbitration court in St Petersburg.
The assets had been frozen by authorities in the wake of the western sanctions, and highlights some of the fallout western companies are feeling from the punitive measures against Moscow.
Specifically, The FT notes that the dispute centers on $439mn in funds that VTB held in a JPMorgan account in the US.
When Washington imposed sanctions on the Kremlin-run bank, JPMorgan had to move the funds to a separate escrow account. Under the US sanctions regime, neither VTB nor JPMorgan can access the funds.
In response, VTB last week filed a lawsuit against the New York-based group to get Russian authorities to freeze the equivalent amount in Russia, warning that JPMorgan was seeking to leave Russia and would refuse to pay any compensation.
The following day, JPMorgan filed its own lawsuit against the Russian lender in a US court to prevent a seizure of its assets, arguing that it had no way to reclaim VTB’s stranded US funds to compensate its own potential losses from the Russian lawsuit.
Yesterday’s decision sided with VTB, ordering the seizure of funds in JPMorgan’s Russian accounts and “movable and immovable property,” including its stake of a Russian subsidiary.
JPMorgan said it faced “certain and irreparable harm” from VTB’s efforts, exposed to a nearly half-billion-dollar loss, for merely abiding by U.S. sanctions.
The order was the latest example of American banks getting caught between the demands of Western sanctions regimes and overseas interests. Last summer, a Russian court froze about $36mn worth of assets owned by Goldman following a lawsuit by state-owned bank Otkritie. A few months later the court ruled that the Wall Street investment bank had to pay the funds to Otkritie.
The tit-for-tat continues.
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES
COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG ISSUES
COVID-19 Vaccine Protection Among Children Plummets Within Months: CDC Study
WEDNESDAY, APR 24, 2024 – 09:30 PM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,
Children who received an original COVID-19 vaccine have little protection against hospitalization just months after vaccination, according to a new study from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Children initially have 52 percent protection against hospitalization but that estimated effectiveness plummeted to 19 percent after four months, according to the paper.
Protection against so-called critical illness also dropped sharply, from 57 percent to 25 percent, researchers found.
The researchers include CDC employees and the paper was published in the CDC’s weekly digest on April 18.
The study covered children who received two or more doses of the original Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines from Dec. 19, 2021, through Oct. 29, 2023.
The study involved children aged 5 to 18 who were hospitalized with acute COVID-19 and tested positive for the illness and compared them to a control group of children hospitalized with COVID-19-like symptoms but who tested negative for COVID-19.
Researchers drew data from the Overcoming COVID-19 Network, which includes health care sites in most of the United States, and ended up with 1,551 case patients and 1,797 in the control group.
The study found that “receipt of ≥2 original monovalent COVID-19 vaccine doses was associated with fewer COVID-19–related hospitalizations in children and adolescents aged 5–18 years; however, protection from original vaccines was not sustained over time,” Laura Zambrano, a CDC epidemiologist, and her co-authors wrote.
It also recorded a similar drop in protection against critical illness, defined as being placed on mechanical ventilation, vasoactive infusions, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or dying.
The researchers asserted that the results highlighted the current CDC guidance that all people aged 6 months and older receive one of the newest COVID-19 vaccines, which were introduced in the fall of 2023 with clinical data from just 50 humans and no efficacy estimates. The CDC only publishes papers in its weekly digest, the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, after they’re shaped to “comport with CDC policy.” The papers are not peer-reviewed.
Ms. Zambrano did not respond when asked for data suggesting that the currently available shots provide longer-lasting protection than the original vaccines.
The CDC’s website says, in promoting vaccination, that COVID-19 vaccines are “effective at protecting people from getting seriously ill, being hospitalized, and dying” but the hyperlink that ostensibly supports the statement goes to a page that is not live.
U.S. authorities have been moving COVID-19 vaccines to a once-a-year model, similar to influenza vaccines. The model features updating the formulation of the vaccines on an annual basis, in an acknowledgment that any protection the vaccines give quickly wanes. The formulation is typically updated in the fall.
Just 14 percent of children, and 23 percent of adults, have received one of the newest vaccines as of April 6, according to CDC estimates. The available vaccines are messenger RNA (mRNA) shots from Pfizer and Moderna and an alternative from Novavax.
Dr. Jane Orient, executive director of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, noted that, according to the new paper, the maximum effectiveness estimates against hospitalization were 61 percent, regardless of how the data were sliced, that more deaths were recorded among the case patients, and the median hospitalization duration was four days for both groups.
“I do not see how a clinician whose concern is treating patients and whose job does not depend on pushing mRNA vaccines would find this a basis for recommending shots—quite the contrary,” Dr. Orient, who was not involved in the research, told The Epoch Times in an email.
“It reeks of conflict of interest.”
Stated limitations of the paper include not assessing post-infection immunity and a lack of sequencing data.
The conflict of interest section runs 688 words and includes some of the authors reporting funding from Pfizer and Moderna or ownership of Pfizer stock.
end
Brown University Research on the harm created by the Covid Vaccines and how it inhibits your important P 53 protein to function properly in the fight against cancer.
(Brown University)
COVID Spike Proteins Help Cancer Cells Survive, Resist Chemotherapy: Brown University Preprint Paper
(David A Litman/Shutterstock)
Spike protein from SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, potentially promotes cancer by interfering with anti-cancer activities, according to a recent preprint cell study from Brown University.
The gene—the most commonly affected by cancer—stops cancer cell growth and encourages DNA repair.
“Interfering with p53 can promote cancer development as well as aid cancer growth,” Dr. El-Deiry told The Epoch Times.
When exposed to chemotherapy, cancer cells containing spike protein subunits had a better chance of survival.
Spike Subunits Block Anti-Cancer Gene
The SARS-CoV-2 spike protein comprises two components: S1 and S2. In this study, the researchers tested the effects of the S2 component in several human cancer cell lines: lung, breast, colorectal, and sarcoma cancer cells.ll cells were modified to include normal p53 genes, and some were introduced to spike protein S2 DNA.
The researchers then used chemotherapy drugs to activate the p53 genes and cause cancer cell death.
However, they found that cancer cells with spike protein S2 tended to survive the effects of the anti-cancer gene and chemotherapy. They also observed that p53 activity was reduced in these cells.
It is still unknown why cancer cells with spike protein S2 had better survival rates. Dr. El-Deiry said it could be because S2 proteins seem to interfere with p53 activity. However, S2 proteins may also cause “other effects that promote cell survival” even in the presence of toxic chemotherapy.
COVID-19 Vaccines May Have Similar Effects
Dr. El-Deiry’s study was designed to test whether the SARS-CoV-2 virus or its viral subunits could promote cancer activities.
However, the study further implied that SARS-CoV-2 therapeutics like the COVID-19 mRNA and protein vaccines may yield similar effects.
“Our goal was to study spike protein regardless of its origin,” Dr. El-Deiry told The Epoch Times. “We focused on spike that may come from infection or any other way it can be expressed in human cells … this would also apply to vaccine-made spike.”
Dr. El-Deiry was careful to highlight the many limitations of his study, including that it was a simple cell culture study. Additionally, with differing spike variations in the different viral strains and vaccines, the health consequences they may have require more research.
More Thorough Studies Needed
When asked if human cancers carry the same risks when exposed to spike protein S2, Dr. El-Deiry said their current data are too preliminary to know.
He said additional animal studies would be needed to “more thoroughly [evaluate] cancer susceptibility.”
He would also like to examine the behaviors of normal cell types and their responses to different spike variants. He hopes that the spike proteins generated by future vaccines will not suppress p53 activity.
Dr. El-Deiry added that questions remain to be answered, such as whether these potential cancer-promoting effects are reversible, how long the spike proteins persist in the cells, and whether these risks can be mitigated.
“Some of the questions have relevance to long COVID as well as repeated administration of vaccines with stable RNA that introduces it into normal cells,” he said.
Several Studies Link Cancer to COVID-19 Pandemic
Several recent studies have shown a rise in cancer that coincides with the COVID-19 pandemic.
Two preprints investigating codes for cause of death found that in 2020, there was a slight increase in excess death from cancer neoplasms—new and abnormal tissue growth—according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The excess mortality rate of neoplasms for young Americans was 1.7 percent in 2020. In 2021, this increased by almost threefold to 5.6 percent. In 2022, the excess neoplasm death rate increased to 7.9 percent.
“The results indicate that from 2021 a novel phenomenon leading to increased neoplasm deaths appears to be present in individuals aged 15 to 44 in the US,” authors of one of the preprints wrote, alluding to possible COVID-19 vaccine involvement.
Another follow-up report on older Americans presented similar findings.
A peer-reviewed Japanese study published in Cureus on April 8 observed a “significant increase“ in cancer deaths in Japan after mass vaccination with the third mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose in 2022.
Common cancers had a decreasing excess mortality between 2010 and 2019, the authors wrote. There were also no excess cancer deaths in the first year of the pandemic. However, researchers observed an uptick in some types of cancers in 2021, with further increases in 2022, coinciding with mass vaccination efforts.
Of the cancer mortalities studied, the rise in breast cancer mortality rate was particularly significant, the authors found. Breast cancer had a substantial deficit in mortality in 2020 but shifted to excess mortality in 2022.
end
what Ozempic will do to you:
(zerohedge)
Skincare Firm Vows To Rid ‘Ozempic Face’ In New Marketing Push
WEDNESDAY, APR 24, 2024 – 07:50 PM
One side effect of GLP-1 medications for weight loss is “Ozempic Face.” This happens when the rapid loss of body fat produces a hollowed-looking face, wrinkles, sunken eyes, and changes in the size of the lips, cheeks, and chin. To counter this, skincare companies are ramping up the marketing of products to ‘fix’ this side effect as these blockbuster drugs sweep the nation.
Swiss skincare company Galderma Group’s Chief Executive Officer Flemming Ornskov told Bloomberg in an interview after this week’s first-quarter earnings that its skin treatments and dermal fillers “should be able to restore this [Ozempic Face].”
“I think that will be another growth wave in that space, which I will make sure to capture,” Ornskov said.
Has Wall Street woken up to Galderma’s ability to indirectly capitalize on the weight loss craze?
Goldman’s GLP-1 winners basket still shows a strong upward trend.
Novo Nordisk A/S’s blockbuster treatments, Ozempic for diabetes, and Wegovy for weight loss, are both two names for the same drug: semaglutide. The FDA approved Ozempic for diabetes in 2017 and Wegovy for obese people in 2021.
The issue with Wegovy is its effectiveness. Within four weeks of treatment, the average weight loss is around 5% of body weight, increasing to 8% after two months. Semaglutide, the active ingredient, significantly decreases appetite and hunger.
“If weight is lost in a more gradual way, these changes may not be as noticeable. It’s the faster pace of weight loss that occurs with GLP-1 drugs that can make facial changes more obvious,” Harvard Health Publishing wrote in a note.
Here are real-world examples of Ozempic Face:
Google searches for “Ozempic Face” are soaring to record highs.
For those who can afford Ozempic Face, try also walking around in $1,000 ‘dirty’ Gucci sneakers to complete your look as a starved homeless person – or unvetted, starved illegal alien.
Instead of being the guinea pig for the pharma-industrial complex, why not just put down the processed foods from the food-industrial complex and just go outside for a jog?
At this rate, with a new study from Kaiser Family Foundation showing upwards of 3.6 million people will be subsidized for the miracle weight loss drugs, this could ultimately accelerate the bankrupting of Medicare.
GLOBAL ISSUES//GLOBAL SALES
end
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, April 16-April 22, 2024
Inbox
END
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
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| Alan Dershowitz: Democrats Want Trump ‘Killed’Harvard law professor Alan Dershowitz has warned that Democrats want President Donald Trump to be “killed.”READ MORE |
| Supreme Court Refuses to Hear Kari Lake’s Voting Machine CaseThe U.S. Supreme Court has declined to hear a case from Republican Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake.READ MORE |
| Democrats Are Using Lawfare against Trump Because They ‘Can’t Beat Him in the Polls,’ Lawyer WarnsPresident Donald Trump’s attorney Alina Habba has warned the American people that the Democrats are attacking the 45th POTUS with lawfare tactics because they “can’t beat him in the polls.”READ MORE |
| Supreme Court Threatens to Undermine Jack Smith’s Get-Trump CaseSpecial Counsel Jack Smith’s election interference case against President Donald Trump may be in jeopardy thanks to the Supreme Court.READ MORE |
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Quad-Vaxxed Young People 318% More Likely to Die Than Unvaxxed
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Bill Gates Unveils Plan to Fight ‘Climate Change’ by Targeting Food Supply
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Papua New Guinea PM Blasts Biden over ‘Loose’ Claims about Uncle ‘Eaten by Cannibals’
Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape has fired back at Democrat President Joe Biden over his recently tall tale about his uncle’s death during World War II.
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New York Times: Most Trump ‘Hush Money’ Jurors Are ‘Left-of-Center’
President Donald Trump and his allies have long argued that receiving a fair jury trial in deep blue Manhattan will be nearly impossible.
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Ex-Stormy Daniels Lawyer Michael Avenatti May Testify for Trump in ‘Hush Money’ Trial
Stormy Daniels’ former attorney Michael Avenatti has revealed that he’s been speaking with President Donald Trump’s legal team about testifying in his defense during his “hush money” trial in New York.
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Political Manifesto Reveals Motivation of Man Who Set Himself on Fire Outside Trump’s Trial
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EVOL NEWS
| LATEST NEWS: |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0712 UP .0019
USA/ YEN 155.55 UP 0.282 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2509 UP .00550
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3672 DOWN .0033(CDN DOLLAR UP 33 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 8.08 PTS OR 0.27%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 83,27PTS OR 0.48%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.01%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 83.27PTS OR 0.48%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 8.08 PTS OR 0.27%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.01%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 831,60 PTS OR 2.16%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2330.40
silver:$27.45
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 105.62 DOWN 23 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
THURSSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.282% UP 5 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.906% UP 0 AND 6/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.431 UP 5 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.985UP 5 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.630UP 4 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0733 UP 0.0033 OR 33 basis points
USA/Japan: 155.51 UP .246 OR YEN IS DOWN 25 BASIS PTS
Great Britain/USA 1.2514 UP .0055 OR 55 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0025 OR 25 BASIS pts to 1.3679
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY: closed UP ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2390
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2583)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.49 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.906…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.700% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.811 UP 3 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.991 UP 45BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2328,40
SILVER AT 11;30: 27.31
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED UP 38.48 PTS OR 0.48
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 171,42PTS OR 0.95%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 75.21 PTS OR 0.93%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 44.10PTS OR 0.40%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 331.37PTS OR 0.97%
WTI Oil price 82.59 12: EST/
Brent Oil: 87.8512:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 91.94 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 31/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.6300UP 4 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.4085UP 4 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0731 UP .0032 OR 32 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2518 UP.0059 or 59basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.398 UP 3 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: .906
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 155,58 UP 0.313/YEN DOWN 31 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3657 UP.0047 CDN dollar UP47 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 83.77
Brent OIL: 89.18
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5BASIS pts to 4.706%
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS PTS to 4.818%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 1 PTS AT 4.993
USA dollar index: 105.41 DOWN 29 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32. 49 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 91,94UP 0 AND 31/100 roubles
GOLD 2,334.803:30 PM
SILVER: 27.43 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 374.67 PTS OR 0.97%
NASDAQ DOWN 96.30 PTS OR 0.55%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.20 UP 0.23PTS OR 1.44%
GLD: $215.92 UP 1.28 OR 0.60%
SLV/ $25.06 UP 0.16 OR 0.64%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Stagflation Signal Slams Stocks & Bonds; Bullion & Black Gold Bid
THURSDAY, APR 25, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Overall, US macro data has suddenly started to disappoint (not the least of which was today’s ugly GDP print)…
Source: Bloomberg
ut, while ‘bad news’ for the economy has recently been ‘good news’ for stocks (enables an easier Fed), today’s data ‘punched that narrative in the face’ with Core PCE price index in Q1 soaring considerably more than expected. And here’s the problem – inflation expectations are surging at the same time as growth expectations are sliding – the nemesis of every central banker is upon us: STAGFLATION.
It’s been a theme all year but recently has become so much more pronounced that not even the best ‘spinners’ can ignore…
Source: Bloomberg
And that sent rate-cut expectations plummeting to cycle lows (and took June completely off the table for a cut)(
Source: Bloomberg
Combine the ugly macro data with some ugly micro (META) and Goldman’s trading desk noted overall flow was skewed better to sell:
LO’s driving more of the supply here with a -3% sell skew. An outlier is that we are seeing very real demand in AAPL from both HF and L/O community. META seeing very little defense from L/O . Overall activity from the group feels muted.
In the HF community we are slightly better to buy. Very notable that in macro products, short ratios are elevated to 75%. We are seeing cover buying in the Tech.
Overall, the majors were all lower close to close, but well off their knee-jerk lows from the GDP/PCE data… The Dow was the laggard on the day (with IBM & CAT the biggest points drag). The rest of the majors were all equally pummeled (though we do note that Nasdaq is still up over 2% on the week)…
The initial puked slammed The Dow and Nasdaq back below their 100DMAs and the ramp-fest back up to that critical technical level, but that couldn’t hold into the close…
As you’d expect, given META’s meltdown, the basket of MAG7 stocks was ugly out of the gate – and ended red – but staged a decent comeback during the day…
Source: Bloomberg
And ‘most shorted’ stocks followed a similar trajectory – squeezing higher after an ugly open…
Source: Bloomberg
Tech stocks overall ended marginally lower, Energy outperformed while Real Estate and Healthcare lagged…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were clubbed like a baby seal on the macro data and pulled back only modestly during the day with the short-end and belly underperforming the long-end…
Source: Bloomberg
2Y Yields broke above 5.00% AGAIN… but were unable to close above it AGAIN…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar spiked immediately higher on the GDP data, but as the day wore on, the dollar bled back its gains to end lower on the day…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold prices rallied on the day, shrugging off the vol in the dollar…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin managed gain on the day after overnight weakness…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude prices managed solid gains after early weakness with WTI rallying back up towards $84…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, we are down to the vinegar strokes of the week with GOOGL & MSFT tonight, and PCE tomorrow…
Source: Bloomberg
…and don’t forget The Fed next week where no action is expected, but the words may speak even louder this time.
END
MORNING TRADING/
AFTERNOON TRADING/
II USA DATA
Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims Continue To Ignore Reality
THURSDAY, APR 25, 2024 – 08:39 AM
In the real world labor market, 2024 has been a shitshow of layoffs…
1. Everybuddy: 100% of workforce
2. Wisense: 100% of workforce
3. CodeSee: 100% of workforce
4. Twig: 100% of workforce
5. Twitch: 35% of workforce
6. Roomba: 31% of workforce
7. Bumble: 30% of workforce
8. Farfetch: 25% of workforce
9. Away: 25% of workforce
10. Hasbro: 20% of workforce
11. LA Times: 20% of workforce
12. Wint Wealth: 20% of workforce
13. Finder: 17% of workforce
14. Spotify: 17% of workforce
15. Buzzfeed: 16% of workforce
16. Levi’s: 15% of workforce
17. Xerox: 15% of workforce
18. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce
19. Wayfair: 13% of workforce
20. Duolingo: 10% of workforce
21. Rivian: 10% of workforce
22. Washington Post: 10% of workforce
23. Snap: 10% of workforce
24. eBay: 9% of workforce
25. Sony Interactive: 8% of workforce
26. Expedia: 8% of workforce
27. Business Insider: 8% of workforce
28. Instacart: 7% of workforce
29. Paypal: 7% of workforce
30. Okta: 7% of workforce
31. Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce
32. Docusign: 6% of workforce
33. Riskified: 6% of workforce
34. EA: 5% of workforce
35. Motional: 5% of workforce
36. Mozilla: 5% of workforce
37. Vacasa: 5% of workforce
38. CISCO: 5% of workforce
39. UPS: 2% of workforce
40. Nike: 2% of workforce
41. Blackrock: 3% of workforce
42. Paramount: 3% of workforce
43. Citigroup: 20,000 employees
44. ThyssenKrupp: 5,000 employees
45. Best Buy: 3,500 employees
46. Barry Callebaut: 2,500 employees
47. Outback Steakhouse: 1,000
48. Northrop Grumman: 1,000 employees
49. Pixar: 1,300 employees
50. Perrigo: 500 employees
51. Tesla: 10% of workforce
But, according to the government-supplied data…
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week dropped to just 207k (SA), below the 215k expectation, and back near YTD lows.
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing Claims also improved (though still a little elevated) falling back below 1.8mm (1.781mm to be exact) – near the lowest of the year…
Source: Bloomberg
But, here’s the thing… WARNs are soaring… and Challenger-Grey just announced that March saw the most job cuts (90,309) since January 2023…but government-supplied data on initial jobless claims continues to smoothly tick along near record lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Ah, Bidenomics!!
If Trump wins in November, will all this data suddenly be ‘allowed’ to reflect reality?
end
Stagflation Shock: GDP Stuns With Lowest Print In 2 Years, Below Lowest Estimates, As PCE Comes In Red Hot
THURSDAY, APR 25, 2024 – 08:51 AM
If the Biden admin was to have any hopes of the Fed cutting rates and monetary easing ahead of the election, the tires would need to start falling off the US economy right… about… now… Which is why we didn’t find it at all surprising that moments ago the Biden Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that in Q1, US GDP unexpectedly collapsed to just 1.6%, down more than 50% from the Q4 print of 3.4%, the lowest print since Q2 2022 when the US underwent a brief technical recession (one which the NBER never admitted of course), and a huge miss to the 1.6% estimate.
Almost as if on purpose, the GDP printed below the lowest estimate (that of SMBC Nikko) which was at 1.7% (the highest forecast was 3.1% from Goldman Sachs which was off by the usual 50%), and was a 3-sigma miss to estimates.
But while a collapse in the US economy is just what the “soft landers” wanted, the huge GDP miss was just half the story because at the same time, the BEA reported that the GDP Deflator (price index) came in at 3.1%, hotter than the 3.0% expected and almost double the 1.6% in Q4. Worse, the all important core PCE for Q1 soared from 2.0% to 3.7%, blowing away estimates of 3.4% (we will get a more accurate core PCE print tomorrow for the month of March) and suggesting that the US is about to not only not pass go, and overshoot soft-landing island completely, but crash-land straight into a stagflationary recession…
… unless the Fed does something, although what it can do – with inflation rising and growth slowing – is anyone’s guess.
Taking a closer look at the absolute data, the BEA said that the increase in the first quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and housing investment that were partly offset by a decrease in inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
- The increase in consumer spending reflected an increase in services that was partly offset by a decrease in goods. Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were health care as well as financial services and insurance. Within goods, the leading contributors to the decrease were motor vehicles and parts as well as gasoline and other energy goods.
- The increase in housing investment was led by brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs as well as new single-family housing construction.
- The decrease in inventory investment was led by decreases in wholesale trade and manufacturing.
Compared to Q4, the deceleration in GDP in Q1 reflected decelerations in consumer spending, exports, and state and local government spending and a downturn in federal government spending. These movements were partly offset by an acceleration in housing investment. Imports accelerated.
Digger deeper into the data, we find that it was once again the slowdown in consumption that was the biggest culprit, with Personal Consumption rising 2.5%, a big drop from the 3.3% in Q4 and below the 3.0% expected. Taking a step back we find that consumption has now missed on 6 of the past 10 prints.
In terms of actual components we find the following picture:
- Personal Consumption added 1.68% to the bottom line GDP print, or more than 100% of it. This was down notably from 2.20% in Q4.
- Fixed Investment rose modestly, to 0.91% of the bottom line contribution, up from 0.61% in Q4.
- The Change in Private inventories continued to detract from GDP for the 2nd quarter in a row, reducing the bottom line GDP print by 0.35%, a modest improvement from the -0.47% in Q4.
- Net trade was a big delta, and after contributing 0.25% to the Q4 3.4% GDP print, in Q1 it subtracted 0.86% from the actual print.
- Finally, government continues to be a contribution but in Q1 it added just 0.21%, a big drop from the 0.79% in Q4 and the lowest since Q2 2022 when it reduced GDP by 0.29%.
And visually:
That was the GDP side of things, what about the inflation/PCE? Well, this is where things get really bad, because after PCE came in hot in Q4, it came in even hotter in Q4, as GDP prices, the prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents, increased 3.1% in Q1 after increasing 1.9%, and above the 3.0% estimate. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 3.2% after increasing 2.1%.
Turning to the all important PCE, Personal consumption expenditures prices increased 3.4% in the first quarter after increasing 1.8% in the fourth quarter. And the punchline: excluding food and energy, the all important core PCE price index increased 3.7% after increasing 2.0%, and coming far hotter than the 3.4% estimate.
This, according to Fed-whisperer Nick Timiraos, implies that the March core PCE number which is reported tomorrow, must be higher than +0.22, closer to +0.3% (which is precisely where the estimate is), and would imply upside revisions to Jan and Feb.
Commenting on the report, Fitch economist Olu Sonola writes that “the hot inflation print is the real story in this report. If growth continues to slowly decelerate, but inflation strongly takes off again in the wrong direction, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in 2024 is starting to look increasingly more out of reach.”
The bottom line: while a sharp slowdown in growth would have been just the “bad news is good news” the market was desperately hoping for, throw in the unexpected surge in prices and suddenly the threat of a full-blown stagflationary shock is once again front and center… at least until tomorrow, when we wouldn’t put it past this admin to come out with another fabricated core PCE print which makes no sense and somehow comes in well below the 0.3% MoM estimate.
end
GDP slows down to 1.6% despite huge migrant spending
GDP growth slowed to a 1.6% rate in the first quarter, well below expectations
THU, APR 25 2024 8:31 AM
*Gross domestic product, a broad measure of goods and services produced in the January-through-March period, increased at a 1.6% annualized pace, below the 2.4% estimate.
*The personal consumption expenditures price index, a key inflation variable for the Federal Reserve, rose at a 3.4% annualized pace for the quarter, its biggest gain in a year.*Consumer spending increased 2.5% in the period, down from a 3.3% gain in the fourth quarter and below the 3% Wall Street estimate.GDP increased at a 1.6% rate in the first quarter, less than expected
U.S. economic growth was much weaker than expected to start the year, and prices rose at a faster pace, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.
Gross domestic product, a broad measure of goods and services produced in the January-through-March period, increased at a 1.6% annualized pace when adjusted for seasonality and inflation, according to the department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 2.4% following a 3.4% gain in the fourth quarter of 2023 and 4.9% in the previous period.
Consumer spending increased 2.5% in the period, down from a 3.3% gain in the fourth quarter and below the 3% Wall Street estimate. Fixed investment and government spending at the state and local level helped keep GDP positive on the quarter, while a decline in private inventory investment and an increase in imports subtracted. Net exports subtracted 0.86 percentage points from the growth rate while consumer spending contributed 1.68 percentage points.
There was some bad news on the inflation front as well.
The personal consumption expenditures price index, a key inflation variable for the Federal Reserve, rose at a 3.4% annualized pace for the quarter, its biggest gain in a year and up from 1.8% in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy, core PCE prices rose at a 3.7% rate, both well above the Fed’s 2% target. Central bank officials tend to focus on core inflation as a stronger indicator of long-term trends.
The price index for GDP, sometimes called the “chain-weighted” level, increased at a 3.1% rate, compared to the Dow Jones estimate for a 3% increase.
Markets slumped following the news, with futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average off more than 400 points. Treasury yields moved higher, with the benchmark 10-year note most recently at 4.69%.
“This was a worst of both worlds report – slower than expected growth, higher than expected inflation,” said David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth US. “We are not far from all rate cuts being backed out of investor expectations. It forces [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell into a hawkish tone for next week’s [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting.”
The report comes with markets on edge about the state of monetary policy and when the Federal Reserve will start cutting its benchmark interest rate. The federal funds rate, which sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, is in a targeted range between 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest in some 23 years though the central bank has not hiked since July 2023.
Investors have had to adjust their view of when the Fed will start easing as inflation has remained elevated. The view as expressed through futures trading is that rate reductions will begin in September, with the Fed likely to cut just one or two times this year. Futures pricing also shifted after the GDP release, with traders now pointing to just one cut in 2024, according to CME Group calculations.
“The economy will likely decelerate further in the following quarters as consumers are likely near the end of their spending splurge,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “Savings rates are falling as sticky inflation puts greater pressure on the consumer. We should expect inflation will ease throughout this year as aggregate demand slows, although the path to the Fed’s 2% target still looks a long ways off.”
Consumers generally have kept up with inflation since it began spiking, though rising inflation has eaten into pay increases. The personal savings rate decelerated in the first quarter to 3.6% from 4% in the fourth quarter. Income adjusted for taxes and inflation rose 1.1% for the period, down from 2%.
Spending patterns also shifted in the quarter. Spending on goods declined 0.4%, in large part to a 1.2% slide in bigger-ticket purchases for long-lasting items classified as durable goods. Services spending increased 4%, its highest quarterly level since the third quarter of 2021.
A buoyant labor market has helped underpin the economy. The Labor Department reported Thursday that initial jobless claims totaled 207,000 for the week of April 20, down 5,000 and below the 215,000 estimate.
In a possible positive sign for the housing market, residential investment surged 13.9%, its largest increase since the fourth quarter of 2020.
Thursday’s release was the first of three tabulations the BEA does for GDP. First-quarter readings can be subject to substantial revisions — in 2023, the initial Q1 reading was an increase of just 1.1%, which ultimately was taken up to 2.2%.
-END-
Not good: USA trade deficit widens but more important is the drop in both exports and imports as the economy softens
U.S. trade deficit in goods widens in March to highest level in almost a year
April 25, 2024 at 8:46 a.m. ET
MarketWatchDeficit widens 1.7% to $91.8 billion
The numbers: The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened 1.7% to $91.8 billion in March, according to the Commerce Department’s advanced estimate released Thursday. That’s the largest deficit since last April.
The wider deficit was in line with a forecast of economists polled by Econoday.
Key details: Exports of goods dropped $6.1 billion to $169.2 billion in March. Imports fell $4.6 billion to $261 billion.
Wholesale inventories fell 0.4% in March after a 0.4% gain in the prior month. Nonauto retail inventories fell 0.1% after a 0.3% rise in February.
Big picture: The wider trade deficit subtracted 0.9 percentage points from first quarter GDP growth. Economists look for that trend to continue this year, reversing a trend seen in 2023.
TUCKER CARLSON…
END
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
deadly to an economy a huge 44% tax rate to capital gains and also dividends. Combined with state taxes the effective tax rate in several states exceed 55%
(zerohedge)
Biden Calls For Record High 44.6% Capital Gains Tax Rate
WEDNESDAY, APR 24, 2024 – 10:10 PM
By John Kartch of Americans For Tax Reform
President Biden has formally proposed the highest top capital gains tax in over 100 years.
Here is a direct quote from the Biden 2025 budget proposal: “Together, the proposals would increase the top marginal rate on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends to 44.6 percent.”
Yes, you read that correctly: A Biden top capital gains and dividends tax rate of 44.6%.
END
Is another inflation scare coming? GDP seems to say yes.
April 25, 2024 at 1:34 p.m. ET
By Jeffry Bartash
MarketWatchPCE index signals worse inflation in first quarter
A surprisingly high inflation reading in the first quarter has raised anxiety about whether a key price index in March could be worse than expected and could lower the odds of U.S. interest-rate cuts.
Gross domestic product, the official scorecard of the economy, showed that inflation rose at a 3.4% annual rate in the first quarter, compared with 1.8% in the final three months of 2023.
The core rate of inflation, which omits food and energy, also recorded a 3.7% annual rate of increase in the first quarter, up from 2%.
Economists had only expected the core rate, which is viewed as a better predictor of future inflation trends, to move up to 3.4%.
What’s the worry?
Before the GDP report, Wall Street had forecast a 0.3% increase in both the headline and core personal-consumption- expenditure indexes in March. The March report comes out Friday morning.
Yet if taken at face value, the GDP report suggests both indexes could show gains of either 0.4% or 0.5%. That’s worse than the Federal Reserve or investors had expected.
Such large increases would also suggest inflation is no longer slowing, and perhaps worse, that it might even be on the rise again. The Fed is trying to get the rate of inflation down to 2%.
What’s more, another poor PCE report could push Fed rate cuts to the early fall — or even further out.
Some analysts are skeptical the March PCE report will be so negative.
They point out that the PCE report is derived in part from previously released surveys of consumer and wholesale prices. Neither the consumer-price index nor the producer- price index in March hint at 0.4% or 0.5% PCE readings.
“Such a large miss for March seems implausible, as one can typically estimate month-to-month core PCE inflation to within a few basis points based on the CPI and PPI data for the month,” economists at Bank of America wrote in a note.
What’s more likely, economists say, is that the government revises up the PCE inflation readings for January and February.
Does it matter?
Investors and the Fed already know inflation picked up in the first two months of the new year. The core PCE index jumped 0.3% in February and 0.5% in January after hardly any increase in the last three months of 2023.
If the January and February numbers are revised higher and the core reading in March comes in at 0.3%, it would at least be a sign that inflation didn’t get any worse last month.
Not that it would be of great comfort to investors, consumers or businesses that had been expecting rate cuts this year.
“Even if the March PCE inflation measures rise just 0.3% when reported tomorrow, as expected, they will be accompanied by upward revisions to January or February,” said chief economist Chris Low of FHN Financial. “As a result, as we already know from the [GDP] numbers reported, inflation in the quarter was ugly.”
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM…
Michael Oren: FBI must investigate money trail behind campus antisemitic protests
Columbia alumnus and ambassador Michael Oren reveals how substantial financial contributions from oil companies have manipulated universities to promote anti-Israel agendas.
By NATHAN KLABIN/THE MEDIA LINEAPRIL 25, 2024 12:16
Starting April 17, pro-Palestinian students at Columbia University established the Gaza Solidarity Encampment, launching a campaign demanding that the university divest from Israel. The New York-based Ivy League school joins universities across the United States, such as Emerson, Vanderbilt, Yale, and the University of California, Berkeley that have seen similar protests, along with a rise in reported antisemitic incidents.
For more stories from The Media Line go to themedialine.org
The Media Line spoke to former Israeli Ambassador to the US and Columbia alumnus Michael Oren, who expressed deep concern over the situation. He described the current campus climate as “intolerable, unacceptable, and exceedingly dangerous,” impacting not only Jews but also the broader Western society. Oren traced the origins of these sentiments back to the 1960s youth revolutions.
After their initial failure, he said, these movements embedded themselves in academia, subtly promoting anti-establishment ideologies over decades. “They went back into the campus and spent 50 years instilling their ideas into students and professors to inspire government officials and corporate executives on this particular set of self-declared anti-establishment ideas as trojan horses for antisemitism.”
end
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES
Vaccines are causing a drop in fertility. Now fertility drops to lowest level since 1979
(zerohedge)
US Births Alarmingly Slide To Lowest Level Since 1979, Failing To Exceed Replacement Rate Since Before GFC
THURSDAY, APR 25, 2024 – 07:45 AM
“There are certainly some big risks that humanity faces. Population collapse is a really big deal, but I wish more people would think about…the birth rate is far below what’s needed to sustain civilization at its current level,” Elon Musk explained in a recent interview posted on X.
Elon Musk: “There are certainly some big risks that humanity faces. Population collapse is a really big deal, but I wish more people would think about…the birth rate is far below what’s needed to sustain civilization at its current level. We need to take action on climate sustainability, which is being done, and we need to secure the future of consciousness by being a multi-planet species…Essentially it’s important to take whatever actions we can think of to address the existential risks that affect the future of consciousness. Most people in the world are operating under the false impression that there are too many people. This is not true. Earth could maintain a population many times. The current level and the birth rate has been dropping like crazy. Unfortunately, like we have these like ridiculous population estimates from the UN that need to be updated because there just don’t make any sense. Really, you can just look and say, what was the birth rate last year? Or how many kids were born. Multiply that by the life expectancy and say, okay, that’s how many people will be alive in the future. And then say, is the trend for birth rate positive or negative? It’s negative. That’s the best case. Unless something changes with the birth rate.”
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Musk wrote in a post on X early last week, “Any nation with a birth rate below replacement will eventually cease to exist.”
This leaves us with a new report from the US National Center for Health Statistics showing US births continued a multi-decade slide to levels not seen in more than four decades.
There were 3.59 million babies born in 2023, down 2% from 3.66 million recorded in 2022. This number is the lowest since 1979, when 3.4 million babies were born.
“People are making rather reasoned decisions about whether or not to have a child at all,” Karen Benjamin Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, said, who was quoted by The Wall Street Journal.
Guzzo continued, “More often than not, I think what they’re deciding is, ‘Yes, I’d like to have children, but not yet.'”
America’s declining total fertility rate peaked at 3.75 births per woman after World War II and has since collapsed to about 1.617, well below the replacement rate of 2.1.
A nation without children is a nation without a future. The intersection of deaths exceeding births per year appears imminent.
US birth rates for most age groups are all declining, except for women ages 35-39 and 40-44.
Only the Hispanic fertility rate has rebounded.
With the total birth rate well under the level of replacement since 2007, it should now make sense (read here) why the Biden administration has facilitated the greatest illegal alien invasion this nation has ever seen.
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
END
SWAMP STORIES
Supreme Court Takes New Step In Jan. 6 Case, Orders DOJ To Explain Themselves
Justices said the department’s response to Russell Alford is due May 23.
Mr. Alford was convicted by a jury of four misdemeanor counts but is challenging two of the charges, arguing that they don’t apply to his conduct.
The charges should not have been brought because the laws on which they’re based bar disorderly and disruptive conduct in a Capitol building and in a restricted building, but Mr. Alford merely entered the Capitol and stood silently against a wall before exiting, the Supreme Court was told in a filing from Mr. Alford’s lawyers.
U.S. District Judge Tonya Chutkan, an appointee of President Barack Obama, originally rejected Mr. Alford’s request to dismiss the counts, finding that his “mere presence inside the Capitol disturbed the public peace or undermined public safety.”
A federal appeals court, after reviewing the rejection, upheld it in January. While Mr. Alford was “neither violent nor destructive … a jury could rationally find that his unauthorized presence in the Capitol as part of an unruly mob contributed to the disruption of the Congress’s electoral certification and jeopardized public safety,” the ruling stated.
“The court should grant review because this case presents an important question of federal statutory interpretation,” Mr. Alford’s lawyers wrote to the Supreme Court, describing the appeals court ruling as “establish[ing] a slippery and counter-textual standard for criminalizing conduct in settings for political activity.”
One of the laws, 18 U.S.C. § 1752(a)(2), bars people from “knowingly, and with intent to impede or disrupt the orderly conduct of government business or official functions, engages in disorderly or disruptive conduct in, or within such proximity to, any restricted building or grounds when, or so that, such conduct, in fact, impedes or disrupts the orderly conduct of government business or official functions.”
The other, 40 U.S.C. § 5104(e)(2)(D), makes it a crime to “utter loud, threatening, or abusive language, or engage in disorderly or disruptive conduct, at any place in the grounds or in any of the Capitol Buildings with the intent to impede, disrupt, or disturb the orderly conduct of a session of Congress or either house of Congress, or the orderly conduct in that building of a hearing before, or any deliberations of, a committee of Congress or either house of Congress.”
The lower court rulings were wrong in part because they focused on the effects of Mr. Alford’s conduct, not the nature of the conduct, according to the writ to justices.
That focus “collapses the conduct element into the harm element by giving the adjectives no apparent force,” they said. They argued later that merely being present “is not disorderly conduct unless the presence is in defiance of an order to disperse.”
If the court grants the petition, it would review the case and decide if the rulings were appropriate.
The Department of Justice’s Solicitor General, Elizabeth Prelogar, told the court on April 12 that the government was waiving its right to file a response to the filing, “unless requested to do so by the court.” The petition was distributed to justices on April 18 for their scheduled May 9 conference. Then, on Tuesday, justices directed the Department of Justice to file a response to Mr. Alford.
Lawyers for Mr. Alford and the government did not respond to requests for comment.
If justices take up the petition and rule in favor of Mr. Alford, a number of other Jan. 6 defendants and convicts could see charges thrown out.
Obstruction Charge
The court already agreed to review another charge brought against many Jan. 6 defendants.
Justices sat for oral arguments on April 16 concerning obstruction of an official proceeding, a charge brought against former police officer Joseph Fischer after he entered the Capitol on Jan. 6.
One of Mr. Fischer’s attorneys said the charge should not have been brought because the law was only intended to be used in cases of evidence tampering.
Ms. Prelogar told justices that the charge was proper because it was “not limited to evidence impairment.”
Justice Neil Gorsuch, appointed by former President Donald Trump, wondered whether the government would bring the charge against people who heckled the court.
“Would a sit-in that disrupts a trial or access to a federal courthouse qualify? Would a heckler in today’s audience qualify, or at the State of the Union address? Would pulling a fire alarm before a vote qualify for 20 years in federal prison?” he asked.
Another justice later questioned if protesters blocking access to a trial would face the charge, noting that protests have taken place in the past at the Supreme Court but the government did not charge the protesters under the law.
Ms. Prelogar said the law might apply in such cases, if there was proof of “corrupt intent.”
Justices are due to hand down a decision in the case at some point in the future.
WEDNESDAY, APR 24, 2024 – 05:30 PM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The U.S. Supreme Court on April 23 directed the U.S. Department of Justice to reply to a man convicted in the Jan. 6, 2021, breach of the U.S. Capitol.
KING REPORT
| he King Report April 25, 2024 Issue 7229 | Independent View of the News |
| Biden Calls for 44.6% Capital Gains Tax Rate, Highest Capital Gains Tax Since Its Creation in 1922 https://www.atr.org/biden-calls-for-44-6-capital-gains-tax-rate-highest-capital-gains-tax-since-its-creation-in-1922/ Boeing Jumps After Beating Apocalyptic Estimates Despite Biggest Cash Burn in 4 Years Revenue of $16.57BN, down from $17.9BN in Q1 2023 but beating estimates of $16.25BN Adjusted EPS of -1.13, beating the estimate of an even bigger loss at -$1.76 Free Cash Flow $(3.93B), worse than the $(0.8B)…a year ago, but beating estimates of a $(4.4B) burn. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boeing-jumps-after-beating-apocalyptic-estimates-despite-biggest-cash-burn-4-years US March Durables Goods Orders 2.6% m/m, 2.5% exp., prior revised to 0.7% from 1.3% (Bidenomics!) Durables ex-Trans 0.2% as expected, prior revised to 0.1% from 0.3% (Bidenomics!) Nondefense Ex-Air 0.2% as expected, prior revised to 0.4% from 0.7% (Bdienomics!) Shipments 0.2% as expected, prior -0.6% Defense +10.6%, Transportation 7.7%, Nondefense Aircraft +30.6%, Nondefense Capital Goods -1.4% Despite Tesla’s 16.3% gain (peak at 10:08 ET), US stocks sank after an early surge. Due to Tesla’s after-hour surge, ESMs rallied from the Nikkei opening until they hit a daily high of 5128.75 at 1:52 ET. They then sank to 5106.50 at 5:54 ET. After a rally, to get long for the NYSE opening pump & dump, ESMs slid to 5108.50 at 9:17 ET on reports that Israel struck 40 Hezbollah in south Lebanon. AFP: Israel Says Forces Carrying Out ‘Offensive Action’ In South Lebanon Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said Wednesday without specifying whether ground troops had crossed the border… He also claimed that “half of Hezbollah’s commanders in southern Lebanon have been eliminated” in months of violence… https://www.barrons.com/news/israeli-army-says-struck-40-hezbollah-targets-in-south-lebanon-be56b594 @IsraelRadar_com: Iran withdrew all its forces from southern Syria for fear of Israeli strikes, sources tell @AFP; Tehran also closed several Iranian military offices in Damascus, report says. ESMs then rebounded to 5124.75 at 9:48 ET on the conditioned buying for the NYSE opening. The dump appeared; ESMs tumbled to a daily low of 5091.25 at 11:24 ET. A post-European close rebound appeared. After an 11-handle jump in 11 minutes, ESMs sank to a new low of 5082.00 at 12:46 ET. Incontinent buying took ESMs to 5116.50 at 13:47 ET. Only someone trying to force ESMs higher would transact trades in this reckless manner. When the buying scheme ended, traders unloaded; ESMs sank to 5093.00 at 15:05 ET. The last-hour manipulation took ESMs to 5113.00 at 15:55 ET. Liquidation knocked ESMs down to 5102.50 at the NYSE close. Bonds declined sharply early on Wednesday due to the auction of a record $70B of 5-year notes. USMs hit a low of 113 20/32, -1 3/32, at 10:34 ET. 5-year Auction results: 4.659% vs 4.655% WI USMs suspiciously rallied into the auction (We’ve noted this anomaly several times) and then fell after the results. Who is doing the USM manipulation to aid & abet the US Treasury? The DJTA got hammered, falling as much as 3.1% due to disappointing results from Old Dominion Freight, which plunged 13.8% at its low. EPS 1.34 as expected; revenue 1.46B, 1.47B expected; fuel surcharges +6.7% y/y, operating income $386.4m, $389.5m expected Spokane to consider requiring up to six months’ notice before landlords hike rent https://justthenews.com/nation/states/center-square/spokane-consider-requiring-six-months-notice-landlords-hike-rent Positive aspects of previous session Tonight is the NFL Draft! Fangs rallied moderately on pattern buying for their results Negative aspects of previous session The DJTA sank as much as 3.1% on Old Dominion’s plunge (13.8% at low) US stocks tumbled after an early Tesla-induced rally Bonds declined as much a 1 3/32; but were -3/4 at the NYSE close Ambiguous aspects of previous session Are US stocks sinking on readjusted Fed rate calculations, the Middle East, or something else? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5069.38 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5089.48; 5047.02 CNN: New evidence challenges the Pentagon’s account of a horrific attack as the US withdrew from Afghanistan – There was far more gunfire than the Pentagon has ever admitted. A dozen US military personnel, who were on the scene and spoke to CNN anonymously for fear of reprisals, have described the gunfire in detail… https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/24/world/new-evidence-challenges-pentagon-account-kabul-airport-attack-intl/index.html The US quietly shipped long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine Russia’s use of North Korean-supplied long-range ballistic missiles against Ukraine in December and January, despite U.S. public and private warnings not to do so, led to a change in heart, the U.S. official said… a factor in U.S. decision-making was Russia’s targeting of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure… https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-quietly-shipped-long-range-atacms-missiles-ukraine-2024-04-24/ Biden says US to begin sending military equipment to Ukraine within ‘hours’ He said the supplies will come from U.S. stockpiles that will be replenished… https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-us-begin-sending-military-equipment-ukraine-hours/story Ukraine suspends consular services for military-age men abroad in mobilization overhaul https://www.voiceofeurope.com/ukraine-suspends-consular-services-for-military-age-men-abroad-in-mobilization-overhaul/ How McConnell and Schumer beat hardline conservatives on Ukraine – The two Senate leaders and the White House worked tirelessly for the better part of a year to get direly needed aid for Ukraine. Biden directed his senior aides to employ a two-pronged strategy: privately make clear to Johnson the stakes for Europe and the rest of the world if Russian President Vladimir Putin claims Ukraine, leaning heavily on intelligence — and lay off attacking the new speaker. Counselor to the President Steve Ricchetti spoke to Johnson regularly in the month before the bill neared the president’s desk… https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/24/mitch-mcconnell-israel-ukraine-aid-00153990 @MZHemingway: How did Biden/Dems/media get everything they wanted for their Ukraine proxy war in exchange for nothing for Americans? Hardly any work at all. They appealed to Johnson’s vanity, and they capitalized on his alarming gullibility. Meta opened higher on Tesla. After hitting 510.00 on the NYSE opening, Meta sank to 484.58 at 12:10 ET. It then had a protracted A-B-C rally to 494.70 at 15:32 ET on buying ahead of Meta’s results. After the close, Meta reported EPS of 4.71 (4.32 exp.) and revenue of $36.46B ($36.12B exp.); forecasted Q2 revenue of $36.5B to $39B, 38.29B expected; and said AI spending would increase. Meta tumbled 19.14%, hitting 399.02 at 17:11 ET, on the Q2 revenue reduction and spending increase. Today – A host of major multinational industrial companies will report results; but they will be largely ignored. Instead, the usual suspects will be transfixed on Microsoft and Alphabet’s results. The hope for great MSFT and GOOGL results could induce traders to dismiss Meta’s tumble. Ergo, after the probable early decline in the US on Meta’s Q2 guidance, traders are likely to get long for MSFT and GOOGL. Traders will try to rally bonds after the auction of $44B of 7-year notes (13:00 ET). The US will sell $180B of Treasuries this week! Dealers and traders that got long US debt need patsies to get them out. ESMs are -32.525 (on Meta); USMs are +1/32; and Gold is -9.00 at 20:17 ET. Expected earnings: CAT 5.13, MRK 1.86, CMCSA 1.00, NOC 5.78, DOW .46, TXT 1.23, MO 1.14, AAL -.29, NEM .37, IP .23, HES 1.80, BMY -4.44, LUV -.31, UNP 2.51, GWW 9.63COF 3.28, INTC .13, MSFT 2.83, GOOGL 1.53 Expected economic data: Q1 GDP 2.5%, Consumption 3.0%, GDP Price Index 3.0%, Core PCE Price Index 3.4%; Mar Advance Goods Trade -$91.0B; Mar Retail Inventories 0.5% m/m, Wholesale Inventories 0.3% m/m, Initial Jobless Claims 215k, Continuing Claims 1.815m; Mar Pending Home Sales 0.2% m/m & -2.8% y/y; April KC Fed Mfg. Activity -5 S&P Index 50-day MA: 5120; 100-day MA: 4950; 150-day MA: 4750; 200-day MA: 4684 DJIA 50-day MA: 38,797; 100-day MA: 38,168; 150-day MA: 36,756, 200-day MA: 36,283 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5071.63 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4638.30 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5304.99 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5126.43 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5033.38 triggers a sell signal Biden reads out ‘pause’ instruction during speech to union members “Four more years. Pause,” said Biden, 81, a la Will Ferrell’s buffoonish newsman character in the classic 2004 comedy “Anchorman.”… (A criminal fraud is being perpetrated on Americans.) https://nypost.com/2024/04/24/us-news/biden-reads-pause-instruction-off-teleprompter-in-speech-to-union-members/ As Elon Musk has stated, whoever runs Biden’s Teleprompter runs the country. PS – The Big Guy reiterated his now standard lie: “I cut the national debt so far.” https://twitter.com/CortesSteve/status/1783187175304999005 White House visitor logs contradict Biden spokesman’s vow to ban DC official who praised notorious antisemite – ‘I love you more than words will ever say,’ Cora Masters Barry told Louis Farrakhan… according to a Fox News Digital review of visitor logs, Barry returned to the White House in June 2023 and again in December 2023… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-visitor-logs-contradict-biden-spoxs-official-praised-notorious-antisemite Jewish NYU professor lashes out at protesters: ‘If I said “Lynch the blacks” or “Burn the gays,” I’d never work again’ https://nypost.com/2024/04/24/us-news/jewish-nyu-professor-lashes-out-at-hypocritical-anti-israel-protesters/ @KagensNews: Australian PM Albanese demands social media ban memes poking fun at him… https://twitter.com/KagensNews/status/1783113471632040291 @CollinRugg: Australian Senator Jacqui Lambie calls for the imprisonment of Elon Musk for allowing free speech on X… “Elon Musk has no social conscience or conscience whatsoever.” “That is absolutely disgusting behavior and quite frankly, the bloke who should be jailed. And the sooner that we can bring rules in or do something about this sort of, this sort of game playing with our social media, the better off we’re going to be.” “But quite frankly, the power that man has because of that platform that he’s on, it’s gotta stop. It has absolutely got to stop.” https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1782610690316140631 Yes, Virginia, Australia has been in totalitarian mode since the Covid 19 panic. @TomRtweets: An armed U.S. Secret Service agent assigned to Vice President Kamala Harris‘s protective detail fought unarmed with other detail agents on Monday morning. The incident occurred at Andrews AFB, shortly before Harris arrived. @susancrabtree: Sources within the Secret Service community tell me the agent assigned to VP Kamala Harris was armed during the fight – that the gun was secured in the agent’s holster until other agents physically restrained the agent and took the gun from the agent’s possession… Other agents and officers within the USSS are asking questions about the agent’s hiring process, whether the USSS did enough to look into the agent’s background and monitor the agent’s mental well-being because there have been widespread concerns about other strange behavior before this incident. For now, I am also withholding the agent’s name. | |
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU THURSDAY
harveyorganblog.com 
