SEPT 6//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $1765 TO $2495.25/SILVER CLOSED DOWN 84 CENTS TO $27.89//PLATINUM CLSOED DOWN $5.60 TO $922.50 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $24.90 TO $918.60//THE YEN CLOSED DRAMATICALLY UP TO 142.46 THUS BLOWING UP ALL REMAINING YEN CARRY TRADES: THIS FORCES INVESTORS TO BAIL OUT OF ASSETS//A MUST VIEW: ANDREW MAGUIRE LIVE FROM THE VAULT NO 189//JOBS REPORT A TOTAL PHONY BUT IT STILL WAS DISMAL//BUFFET IS UNLOADING MOST OF HIS BANK OF AMERICA STOCK/ ISRAEL VS HAMAS/RUSSIA VS UKRAINE/COVID UPDATES//HEALTHY FOOD ISEAS//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY/PAUL ALEXANDER//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
323 C HSBC 102 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 283 523 H INTERACTIVE BRO 8 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 35 661 C JP MORGAN 177 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 3 737 C ADVANTAGE 2 79 880 H CITIGROUP 700 905 C ADM 15
TOTAL: 702 702 MONTH TO DATE: 3,628
JPMorgan stopped 177/702
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2024. CONTRACT: 702 NOTICES FOR 70,200 OZ or 2.1835 TONNES
total notices so far: 3628 contracts for 362,800 Oz (11.284 tonnes)
FOR SEPT:
SILVER NOTICES: 10 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 50,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 4,678 for 23,390,000 oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $17.65 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $.84 AT THE SLV
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ..
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 466.234 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1849 CONTRACTS TO 128,604 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN OF $0.55 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF 660 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD AGAIN A HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS DURING THURSDAY’S TRADING//. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 1130 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER HUGE 690 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST 660 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE. ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO OUR SPREADER T.A.S. LIQUIDATION.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 690 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.55) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF 660 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH ALL OF THE LOSS DUE TO TA.S. LIQUIDATION.
WE HAD A HUGE 1130 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 22.765 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 30,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 23.790 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//SEPT ADVANCES TO 23.790 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS //HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 690 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 59 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 4 DAYS, total 2661 contracts: OR 13.305 MILLION OZ (665 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 13.305 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 13.305 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1849 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS:1130 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF 22.765 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 30,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SEPT ADVANCES TO 23.790 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE LOSS OF 660 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 690 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX TRADING//// MASSIVE ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE THURSDAY/ AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS. ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (690) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND FOR SURE TODAY., .
WE HAD 10 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 50,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 561 OI CONTRACTS TO 520,152 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 9270 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A small SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (561 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN OF $18.00 IN PRICE //THURSDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT AT 12.885 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THURSDAYS STRONG 1,400 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON WHERE THESE BOYS TOOK IMMEDIATE DELIVERY OVER IN LONDON ON A T + 1 BASIS.
NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 11.897 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $18.00 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 12,633 OI CONTRACTS (39.293 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 3202 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 520,152
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3763 CONTRACTS WITH 9431 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A GOOD SIZED 3202 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3763 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 1419 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3202 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 561 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3763 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT 12.885 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1400 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON
//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO: /SEPT 11.897 TONNES.
/ 3) SMALL T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1419 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
AUGUST
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 22,468 CONTRACTS OF 2,246,800 OZ OR 69.88 TONNES IN 4 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 6422 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 69.88 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 69.88 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.97% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 69.88 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1849 CONTRACTS OI TO 128,663 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1130 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 1130 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1130 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1849 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1130 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 719 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 3.30 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.55 GAIN IN PRICE WITH ALL OF THE LOSS DUE TO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION.
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.51 PTS OR 0.81% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 13.04 PTS OR 0.07% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 265.62 OR 0.72%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.33%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,0883 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.0938/ Oil UP TO 69.48 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 72.42 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 561 CONTRACTS TO 511,282 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $18.00 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO IN NUMBER OF /T.A.S. CONTRACTS AS SHORTS TRIED TO, THROUGHOUT THE SESSION, COVER WHAT THEY COULD AT MUCH HIGHER PRICES.
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 148+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE SEPT 2024/BEGINNING OF OCTOBER. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER CONTAINMENT.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS ALSO BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT THESE PRICES AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THURSDAY’S HUGE GAIN IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS WERE CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW) BUT WE DID HAVE MAJOR SHORT COVERING. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING THE WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A GOOD SIZED 3202 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : OCT/DEC3202 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3202 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 3763 CONTRACTS IN THAT 7761 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 561 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS VERY FAIR GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $18.00/THURSDAY COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE RAIDS ON LAST WEDNESDAY, FRIDAY AND THIS PAST TUESDAY WERE ORCHESTRATED BY THE FRBNY AS WE ARE NOW FINISHED WITH OPTIONS EXPIRY FOR THE OTC/LONDON LBMA BETS ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE FED’S HUGE SHORT PREDICAMENT THEY STILL HAVE TIME AND ENERGY TO RAID OUR PRECIOUS METALS. SUCH CROOKS!
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT A FAIR SIZED 1419 CONTRACTS. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING//RAIDS
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: SEPT (11.897 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 44 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 11.897 TONNES.
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $18.00 ////AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A FAIR GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION. BUT CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 11.703 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT (12.885 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THURSDAY’S E..F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF A GOOD SIZED 1400 OZ AS THESE BOYS WERE IN IMMEDIATE NEED OF PHYSICAL GOLD AND THUS TOOK DELIVERY ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND.
//NEW STANDING FOR SEPT REDUCES TO: 11.897 TONNES.
NEW STANDING FOR SEPT: 11.897 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $18.00
WE HAVE REMOVED 9270 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. THIS IS THE LARGEST ADJUSTMENT TO DATE.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3763 CONTRACTS OR 376,300 OZ (11.70
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3628 notices 362800 oz 11.284 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 1 customer deposits
i) Into JPMorgan: 81,226.710 oz oz
total deposits 81,226.710 oz
withdrawals:1
i) Out of Brinks 55,402.961 oz
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS 55,402.961 oz 1.723 tonnes
adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER
For the front month of SEPT. we have an oi of 899 contracts having LOST 28 contracts. We had 14 notices filed on Thursday so we LOST 14 contracts or 1400 oz will NOT stand at the comex as these boys were ferried over to London where they are taking immediate delivery of physical gold over there. This is a considerable amount of gold and our bankers must be in trouble.
OCTOBER LOST 543 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 42,159 CONTRACTS
NOVEMBER GAINED another 51 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 82
DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH GAINED 460 CONTRACTS TO 410,804.
We had 702 contracts filed for today representing 70,200 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notice issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 702 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 177 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPT /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3628) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT 899( CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (702 x 100 oz per contract( equals 382,500 OZ OR 11.897 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTEMBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (3628 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of SEPT (899 X// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (702) x 100 oz which equals 382,500 oz (11.897 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.: 11.897 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
total pledged gold: 1,780,327.447 oz 55.375 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,037,284.269 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,425,642.244 ( 230.96 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,611,592.025 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,645,315 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 175.59 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
SEPT 6/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE SEPT 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1022.16 OZ
Delaware
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
10 CONTRACT(S) (50,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
80 contracts (0.400 million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
4678 Contracts (23.390 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : NIL oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 customer deposits:
total customer deposit nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.996million oz/306.007 million or 44.08%
adjustment:5
a) dealer to customer Asahi 128,720.400 oz
b) dealer to customer Brinks 9827.940 oz
c) dealer to customer CNT 64,203.370 oz
d) dealer to customer Loomis 10,032.35 oz
e) customer tp dealer Manfra: 107,240.400 oz
withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Delaware 1022.12 oz
total customer withdrawals: 1022.12 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 77.637 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 306.016 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR SEPTEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF SEPT/2024 OI: 90 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 241 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 247 NOTICES FILED ON THURSDAY, SO WE GAINED 6 CONTRACTS OR 30,000 OZ
UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP TO TAKE DELIVERY OF SILVER OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..
THERE MUST BE ENOUGH SILVER OVER HERE.
OCTOBER SAW ANOTHER LOSS OF 40 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND THUS WE HAVE 1371 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR OCTOBER.
NOVEMBER SAW ITS ANOTHER GAIN OF 13 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 22.
DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 2042 CONTRACTS UP TO 114,125.
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 10 for 50,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 67,871 strong
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4678 x 5,000 oz = 23.390 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(899) and the number of notices served upon today 10 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the SEPT/2024 contract month: 4678 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPT (899)x number of notices served upon today minus (10)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates to 23.790 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 23.790 million oz.
There are 77,743 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
GLD
SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $18.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD UP $3.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 5,47 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $31.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $23.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $9.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 23 WITH GOLD UP $29.70 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 8.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.85 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 9.43 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.70 TONNES
AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES
AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $9.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.00 TONNES
AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD UP $3.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 7.19 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.97 TONNES
AUGUST 16 WITH GOLD UP $44.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.78 TONNES
AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD UP $13,70 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.78 TONNES
AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.76 TONNES
AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $3.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 849.79 TONNES
AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $30.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.91 TONNES
AUGUST 9 WITH GOLD UP $10.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.91 TONNES
AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $31.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.04 TONNES
AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.06 TONNES
AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.10 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD” A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.90 TONNES
AUGUST 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $9.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.05 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 862.74 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
SEPT 6//WITH SILVER DOWN $.84//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5//WITH SILVER UP $.55//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.193 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ
SEPT 4//WITH SILVER UP $.17//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.427 MILLION OZ
SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN $.74//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 1.278 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.971 MILLION OZ
AUGUST30//WITH SILVER DOWN $.42//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 29//WITH SILVER UP $.37//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.558 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.76//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 2.301 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.281 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 27//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.921 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 462.959 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 26//WITH SILVER UP $0.23//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 45,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.880 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 23//WITH SILVER UP $0.72//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.925 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 22//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.44//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.943 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 468.344 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 21//WITH SILVER $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 1..552 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 468.344 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 20//WITH SILVER $0.24//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.792 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 19//WITH SILVER $0.39//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.506 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.423 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 16//WITH SILVER $0.49//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.929 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 15//WITH SILVER $1.14//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.186 MILLION ON INTO THE SLV.///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.929 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 14//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.40//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 13//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 12//WITH SILVER UP $.37//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 9//WITH SILVER DOWN $.03//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 8//WITH SILVER UP $.70//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 3.241 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////./// /INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 7//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.552 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////./// /INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 6//WITH SILVER UP $0.05//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 458.851 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 2//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.243 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV ///./// /INVENTORY AT 460.961 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.608 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV///./// /INVENTORY AT 462.204 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 466.243 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
end
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:
While the resilience of gold and silver prices puzzles western investors, the Asian hegemons take a different view and Russia is now investing her surplus oil revenue in gold
While gold and silver are yet to break into new high ground, the resilience of gold this week has been remarkable for its firm undertone, just under its all-time high. And silver is showing signs of bottoming out after a decent correction. In European trade this morning, gold was $2518, up $15 from last Friday. At $28.80, silver was down just 5 cents. Volumes in both Comex contracts were moderate.
Comex Open Interest declined in gold to little more than its long-time average, a healthy development. In silver, Open Interest is considerably below the long-term average. These are our next charts.
In both cases, when Open Interest declines, prices don’t decline much with it. Clearly, attempts by the shorts to reduce their liabilities are failing, as the next chart for the financial position of the Swap category in the gold contract demonstrates:
Despite the fall in Open Interest from a recent high of 598,013 contracts on 18 July, the Swaps (mostly bullion bank trading desks) have record gross and net liabilities, shouldered between 19 longs and 26 shorts. That’s a combined loss on the short side averaging $77.4 billion between 26 traders, averaging nearly $3bn each. This is why I think that a higher gold price could lead to one or more traders needing rescuing.
Asian and central bank demand continues apace, keeping London and Comex short of physical liquidity. Comex was never intended to be a delivery market, yet according to my records, since late November 2020 when stand-for-deliveries became a common occurrence having been rare, some 2,136 tonnes of gold have been stood for delivery, and 24,072 tonnes of silver. These are staggering figures, and do not include exchanges for physical, a significant but unknown portion of which were swapped for London forward contracts and then delivery taken.
The premium on gold in Shanghai today is minimal. But this is not where the big buyers in the form of banks operate, only buying in Shanghai when there is a discount. The banks back their gold account liabilities by buying physical gold in western markets, or by not withdrawing purchased bullion from the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
For Chinese banks and investors, the strength in the yuan has been keeping the gold price down, and lower yuan interest rates make gold even more attractive. The yuan’s chart (invested scale) is below:
It appears that Russia is adding to her gold holdings as well. According to the Russian news agency Interfax, Russia is increasing her purchases of gold to RUB 8.2bn daily, the equivalent of over 36,000 ounces financed by a surplus in oil revenues. This is a clear signal that Russia prefers holding gold to fiat currencies, a view echoed by China with respect to the dollar.
And lastly, an update on the technical chart, which has gold consolidating at the upper trend line of a bullish flag
:
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
Russia is going to buy gold exponentially and sell lots of oil
(Jerusalem post)
* * *
end
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES/LIVE FROM THE VAULT: TODAY ANDREW MAGUIRE live from the vault
no 189
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: DIAMONDS
the cost of collectibles, wines, watches diamonds collapse as these goods are just too great for everybody
The downturn in the diamond market is nothing short of breathtaking. Prices are in free fall as cash-strapped consumers have been shunning luxury goods, grappling with failed Bidenomics that unleashed an inflation storm and resulted in high interest rates. Compounding the issue, the rising demand for lab-grown diamonds has pressured the prices of natural stones.
According to Bloomberg data, citing the Diamond Standard Index, diamond prices have plunged to the lowest on record, with data going back to early 2002. The index has lost 45% of its value since March 2022.
Since diamonds are a consumer-driven market, the fierce bear market in prices signals that the industry is in trouble, as well as signals that low/mid-tier consumers are in trouble. In less than a week, Dollar General and Dollar Tree, with tens of thousands of stores nationwide, have warned that their core customer bases are under pressure. These discount retailers offer a unique glimpse into consumer sentiment that is not manipulated by government statisticians at the BLS.
De Beers, the world’s largest diamond producer by value, recorded its worst year in two decades earlier this summer. Its parent company, Anglo American, recently announced plans to divest and spin off its 85% stake in the diamond subsidiary.
CEO Duncan Wanblad acknowledged the challenges De Beers has faced. In May, he said, “It is sitting at the bottom of a cycle. That cycle is more macroeconomic than fundamental.”
The diamond and luxury goods industry was a major beneficiary of the helicopter money the US government dished out during the Covid era. However, as soon as pandemic savings dried up and the Biden-Harris team ignited an inflation storm through failed Bidenomics, consumers had to quickly dial back spending on diamonds, Rolexes, handbags, and Gucci loafers.
There has also been downward pressure from Gen Z’s distaste for marriage. Some millennials are too broke to afford natural stones and have gravitated to lab-grown diamonds. In recent years, the rapid growth of artificial stones has pressured natural stone prices.
In addition to a collapse in diamond prices, the Bloomberg Subdial Watch Index, which tracks prices for the 50 most-traded watches by value on the secondary market, has sunk nearly 18% in 24 months.
Looking at wine prices on the London International Vintners Exchange, the Live-ex Fine Wine 50 index has plunged below Covid lows, with a 5-year return of around 8.4%.
Let’s not forget that classic automobiles, such as Packard Roadsters and Ford Thunderbirds, or mainly classics before the 1960s, are not selling well at auctions. Baby boomers overpaid for these vehicles, while GenXers and millennials instead seek cars from the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, such as 911 Turbos. So much for the old folks trying to dump their 1930s Packards at auction bought a decade or two ago. The market is no longer there.
Overall, this note offers a view into consumer health. Low—and mid-tier households are certainly feeling recession-like pressures. Next up, a pullback in spending from higher income households?
END
Global Cocoa Deficit Deeper Than Expected, US Stockpiles Hit 2009 Lows
Thursday, Sep 05, 2024 – 09:55 PM
Following a massive price surge in cocoa prices in New York earlier this year, where prices topped nearly $12,000 per ton before bottoming out in the low $7,000s and resulting in what technical analysts say is a triangle pattern, prices are expected to stay rangebound as compression indicates a major move nears.
Bloomberg cites new data from the International Cocoa Organization that says demand will exceed production by 462,000 metric tons. That’s about 5.2% more than the ICCO’s May forecast of a 439,000-ton deficit. This is a muchlarger shortage than the initial outlook published in February.
In the Friday report, ICCO wrote that global cocoa supplies remain depressed due to “adverse weather conditions, aged trees, pests and diseases that affected production in major cocoa areas during the season under review.”
Global cocoa production this season is 4.33 million tons, 2.9% below ICCO’s previous forecast. Grinding estimates are expected to be 2.1% lower, at 4.75 million tons.
Bloomberg noted, “New York futures are up around 80% this year as poor harvests in West Africa curbed supplies, though prices have pared back from record highs. The region’s cocoa industry is still grappling with lasting issues like crop disease, and new trees take at least three years to reach fruit-bearing maturity. That’s constraining how quickly production can ramp up to ease the shortage.”
New York bean prices are locked in a triangle formation of compressing price action, indicating that a big move might be on the horizon.
New data from ICE exchange-monitored warehouses shows US cocoa stockpiles have slumped to the lowest levels since early 2009.
Meanwhile, candy companies such as Hershey have been pushing higher cocoa costs to customers. The PA-based company has already slashed its sales and earnings outlook for the year as shoppers have decreased purchases of higher-priced chocolates and candies. In other words, demand destruction has emerged.
Let’s not forget that oil trader Pierre Andurand remains bullish on the view that the stocks-to-grinding ratio for the world at the end of the year will be at its lowest ever “and potentially run out of inventories late in the year.”
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING/FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.51 PTS OR 0.81% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 13.04 PTS OR 0.07% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 265.62 OR 0.72%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.33%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,0883 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.0938/ Oil UP TO 69.48 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 72.42 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.0883
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.0938
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.81 PTS OR 0.81 %
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 13.04 PTS OR 0.07%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 265.62 PTS OR 0.72%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 101.02 EURO FALLS TO 1.1103 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +0.851 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 143.06…… JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE COLLAPSING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.1648/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.5723 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 2.973%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.179
3j Gold at $2515.40//Silver at: 28.77 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 69/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 89.90
3m oil into the 69 dollar handle for WTI and 72 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 143.06/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.851 % STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8427 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9357 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.703 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.990 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.727 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.99…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 3.910 DOWN 4 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.971 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.819 DOWN 2 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Slide Ahead Of Critical Jobs Report
Friday, Sep 06, 2024 – 08:12 AM
Futures are set to end a dismal first week of September lower, with tech again under pressure ahead of a very important jobs report. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are down 0.6% set for a 4th straight day of declines following a sudden dump around the European open; Nasdaq futures slide 1% as NVDA slides more than 2% pre-market while Broadcom also weighed on tech stocks after falling 9% after delivering a disappointing sales forecast. Bond yields are also lower, with the 10Y at 3.70%, the lowest since June 2023 as 2-, 5-, 10- yr yields are 3bp, 3bp, 3bp lower. The Bloomberg dollar index was lower for third day while the yen continues to surge on expectations today’s NFP will come in below expectations and greenlight a 50bps rate cut. Commodities are mixed with base metals higher and oil flat. Today, all eyes on the NFP print at 8.30am ET. Consensus expects 165k jobs being added, with unemployment dropping to 4.2% (our full preview is here). Fed’s Williams and Waller will speak this afternoon before the blackout period begins.
In premarket trading, Broadcom weighed on tech stocks as it falls 7% after the chipmaker gave a revenue forecast that’s seen as disappointing. Other chip stocks are down in sympathy (NVDA -1.3%, AMD -0.9%). US Steel is up 2% after Cleveland-Cliffs’s top executive said he’s still in the market for his rival’s assets. Here are other notable premarket movers:
Bowlero jumps 12% after the operator of bowling centers reported revenue for the fourth quarter that came in above the average analyst estimate.
DocuSign ticks 1% lower after the e-signature company reported billings growth that analysts viewed as weak.
Mobileye slips 2% after Bloomberg reported Intel is considering options for its stake in the automated driving systems provider.
Planet Labs slumps 9% after the Earth-imaging company’s revenue forecast for the current quarter fell short of Wall Street expectations.
Samsara rises 4% after the application software company raised its full-year forecast.
Smartsheet climbs 4% after the software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast for adjusted earnings.
UiPath rises 8% after the software company’s full-year revenue forecast came in ahead of estimates.
Friday’s jobs report will help the Fed decide whether the US economy is heading for a soft landing or a recession after a week of mixed numbers that whipsawed markets. Swap traders are fully pricing in 25 basis points of cuts when Fed officials meet in two-weeks time, with a roughly 35% chance of a 50 basis-point reduction.
“There’s likely to be volatility in markets as we work through whether or not we can actually have a soft landing,” said Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. “Investors need to be ready for more volatility, based upon a transition from a rate-hike cycle to a rate-cut cycle.”
As noted in our preview (link here), economists expect today’s report will show a bounce in hiring and a tick lower in the unemployment rate in August, marking a stabilization after July. Payrolls probably rose by 165,000 last month following July’s 114,000 increase, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Unemployment probably edged down to 4.2%. “Risk markets are sensitive to growth dynamics rather than to interest rates right now, said Bilal Hafeez, chief executive officer and head of research at Macro Hive. “If we were to see a weak number, risk markets such as equities will take that badly.”
Europe’s Stoxx 600 dropped 0.3% to the lowest in 3 weeks, but was off the lows; even so, the index is headed for the biggest weekly decline in almost a year. A key measure of euro-zone wage growth eased, proving further assurance to ECB officials seeking to lower interest rates next week. Should inflation continue to abate, borrowing costs will be lowered every quarter until they reach 2.5%, according to a Bloomberg survey. Here are the biggest movers Friday:
InPost surges as much as 8.9%, the best performance in Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as improving profitability in France and the UK helped the Polish parcel-locker operator beat 2Q expectations
Sectra gains as much as 10%, reaching a record high, after the Swedish medical imaging and cybersecurity firm reported its latest earnings, which included a 10% beat to 1Q Ebitda
Elis declines as much as 17%, the most since March 2020, after it was said to have made offer for US workwear firm Vestis. Bernstein says the offer may weigh on Elis shares in the short term
Raiffeisen falls as much as 7.7% after suffering another setback at its Russian unit after a court in the country froze its shares in the subsidiary, further complicating efforts to sell it
Rubis falls as much as 8.9% after the fuel distributor reported a sharp drop in first-half earnings. Analysts at CIC said the results missed expectations because of non-recurring items
Volvo Car falls as much as 6.1% to their lowest since January as Goldman Sachs says it sees potential for downside depending on revenue development and better opportunities elsewhere
Planisware shares slip as much as 3.8% as shareholder Ardian Group looks to exit its stake in the French software company to capitalize on the gains booked since its IPO earlier this year
Avanza declines as much as 4.1%, the most in a month, after JPMorgan placed the Swedish retail-trading platform and bank on negative catalyst watch leading into its 3Q report
Baloise Holding falls as much as 3.8% after being downgraded by UBS. Analysts say the insurer is fairly valued and argue reports it could be a takeover target are unlikely to come to fruition
Next 15 plunges as much as 53%, the most on record and to a four-year low, after the consultancy firm warned results will be materially below expectations this year
Cairn Homes shares fall as much as 4.6%, the most since December 2022, after the housebuilder confirmed this morning that CEO Michael Stanley has sold 8 million shares in the company
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were steady, with the regional gauge poised for its worst week since July, amid muted trading as Hong Kong’s market was halted due to a typhoon. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1%, erasing earlier losses, but was set to snap three weeks of gains as risk sentiment abates ahead of the US non-farm payrolls report, due later on Friday. The benchmark is headed for a weekly loss of 2.5% as concern was rekindled of overheating in artificial intelligence stocks. TSMC and Commonwealth Bank of Australia were among the biggest winners. Chinese shares in the mainland slid after news that the US administration plans export controls on critical technologies. Hong Kong scrapped trading for the day as Super Typhoon Yagi passed through the region. Persistent economic weakness in China, that prompted several strategists to lower their outlook on the nation’s stocks, has also quelled enthusiasm for riskier assets.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index drops 0.2% while the yen has risen to the top of the G-10 FX pile, up 0.5% against the greenback. The Swiss franc is a close second with a 0.3% gain. Currency strategists see a strong chance the yen will test its August high versus the dollar if the payrolls data boost bets for a 50 basis-point move. The Japanese currency rose to trade below 143 against the dollar on Friday. The yen “is where the action will be” if there is any surprise in the figures, said Gareth Berry, a strategist at Macquarie Group Ltd. in Singapore.
In rates, treasuries climbed with US 10-year yields falling 3bps to 3.70%. European government bonds have followed suit although bunds showed little reaction to a downward revision to euro-area second-quarter GDP.
In commodities, oil prices were steady, with WTI trading near $69 a barrel; crude oil is poised for the biggest weekly loss in almost a year on concerns about soft demand and ample supply, even as OPEC+ delayed a planned increase in output by two months. Iron ore remained on track for its worst week since March, with few signs of a recovery for China’s steel market. Spot gold is also little changed near $2,518/oz.
Looking to the day ahead, and the main highlight will be the US jobs report for August at830am. In addition, we’ll get July data on German and French industrial production, along with Italian retail sales. The Fed calendar lists Williams (8:45am) and Waller (11am), the last scheduled events before quiet period lasting until the Sept. 18 policy announcement
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 5,480.75
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 510.05
MXAP up 0.1% to 181.95
MXAPJ up 0.2% to 564.89
Nikkei down 0.7% to 36,391.47
Topix down 0.9% to 2,597.42
Hang Seng Index little changed at 17,444.30
Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 2,765.81
Sensex down 1.1% to 81,256.16
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 8,013.38
Kospi down 1.2% to 2,544.28
German 10Y yield down 4 bps at 2.17%
Euro little changed at $1.1116
Brent Futures up 0.5% to $73.04/bbl
Brent Futures up 0.5% to $73.03/bbl
Gold spot up 0.0% to $2,517.51
US Dollar Index down 0.17% to 100.94
Top Overnight News
Chinese banks have built a $100 billion short against the US dollar using FX swaps to prop up the yuan — handing easy profits to hedge funds along the way. But the trade exposes the nation’s banks to billions of dollars of potential losses. BBG
Japan’s MUFG said it would consider shifting more of its massive securities portfolio into Japanese gov’t bonds if/when 10-year yields reach 1.2%. BBG
Former BOJ governor Kuroda signals the central bank has a lot of tightening to go before hitting a neutral policy rate. BBG
German industrial production falls short of expectations in Jul, dropping 2.4% M/M (vs. the Street’s -0.5% forecast) and raising the risk of recession for the country. WSJ
The ECB probably won’t accelerate easing in response to a weakening economy, a survey found. After next week’s expected 25-bp cut, respondents see quarterly reductions through next September, then rates remaining at 2.5% through 2026. BBG
Nippon Steel proposed a national security agreement to ease US concerns about its takeover bid, Reuters reported. United Steelworkers said the deal needs reworking. Cleveland-Cliffs’ CEO told CNBC he’s still interested in the rival firm’s assets. BBG
Intel is said to be exploring the sale of part of its stake in Mobileye. Intel also weighing options for its network and edge business: BBG
Qualcomm has reportedly explored buying pieces of Intel’s design business: Reuters
Berkshire Hathaway sold about 18.8mln Bank of America common shares for approximately USD 760mln between Sept 3 and Sept 5, according to an SEC filing
Fed’s Goolsbee says employment and inflation data justify starting the easing process soon and proceeding with multiple rate cuts. Market Watch
For this morning’s NFP print GIR is looking for headline number of +155k (vs +165k consensus and +114k prior), AHE MoM +.3% (vs +.3% consensus and +.2% prior) and U/E Rate of 4.2% (vs 4.2% consensus and 4.3% prior). After the string of recent weaker economic data points whisper for the print has crept lower to 140kish which is helpful. Vol market pricing in a 120bp move for S&P through the close. Mkt currently pricing in 34bps of cuts for the 9/18 FOMC meeting. We are still firmly in a good (econ data) is good (for stocks) and bad is bad set up. The stock market wants solid economic data and orderly/proactive adjustment cuts in 25bps increments. Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was quite dovish and I think he signaled the September cut is happening (only debate is 25bp or 50bp). If probability of a 50bp cut in Sept grows it will spook the stock market (U/E rate of 4.3% greatly increases the 50bp cut odds). GS GBM
Berkshire Hathaway sold another $760 million of BofA shares since Tuesday, reaping almost $7 billion since the disposals started in July. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded without a firm direction following a similar lead from Wall Street, with the tone tentative heading into the much-awaited US jobs report, which could be the determining factor between a 25bps or 50bps cut by the Fed after the central bank shifted its emphasis to the labour market. As a reminder, Fed Vice Chair Williams and Governor Waller will be speaking after the jobs numbers ahead of the Fed’s blackout period set to begin this weekend for the September 18th announcement. ASX 200 just about held onto gains at one point, with Utilities, Financials, Real Estate and Gold names countering the underperformance in Energy and Tech. Nikkei 225 was subdued under the 37k mark (and briefly dipped under 36.5k) with mining and industrial names among the worst performers, whilst Nippon Steel shares fell around 3% amid the ongoing spat with the Biden admin after the US intervened in the Nippon Steel takeover of US Steel amid national security risks. Hang Seng saw its Friday trade scrapped amid a typhoon signal. Shanghai Comp saw subdued trade amid the broader tentative mood across the market and lack of Stock Connect flows. In terms of newsflow, former PBoC Governor Yi Gang offered a bleak prognosis of the Chinese economy, whilst the PBoC drained a net CNY 1.1916tln for the week via open market operations, marking the biggest weekly net cash withdrawal in eight months, according to Reuters calculations.
Top Asian News
Former PBoC Governor Yi Gang, speaking at the Bund Summit, stated that China currently faces weak domestic demand, particularly in consumption and investment. He expressed hope that in the near future, China’s GDP deflator will turn slightly positive. Additionally, Yi hopes that the producer price industry will improve to about zero by the end of this year. He suggests that China should return to a proactive fiscal policy and an accommodative monetary policy.
PBoC injected CNY 141.5bln via 7-day Reverse Repo at a maintained rate of 1.70%.
PBoC drained a net CNY 1.1916tln for the week via open market operations, marking the biggest weekly net cash withdrawal in eight months, according to Reuters calculations.
HKEX confirmed no trading on Friday in securities and derivatives markets due to the issuance of Typhoon Signal No. 8. Stock Connect trading is also suspended for the day. No securities clearing and settlement services will be provided for the day.
Japan Finance Minister Suzuki said there is a need to examine the impact of potential investment tax hikes on the economy and stock prices when asked about the preproposal, according to Reuters.
Toyota (7203 JT) to cut 2026 global EV production to around 1mln units, down 30% from previously announced 1.5mln, via Nikkei.
Former BoJ Governor Kuroda said overnight “A nominal neutral rate, which the Bank of Japan is trying to gradually approach, could be less than 2%,” and “A short-term nominal rate may be less than 2%, maybe around 1.5% or maybe less than that.”
S&P Global Ratings says China Vanke (2202 HK) is downgraded to “BB-” amid weakening sales and margins; outlook Negative
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.3%) opened the session entirely in the red, and sentiment continued to sour as the morning progressed. Indices then found support and traversed worst levels, but with some choppy price action. European sectors hold a strong negative bias; Media takes the top spot, alongside Healthcare. Energy is towards the foot of the pile, hampered by the broader weakness in oil prices. US Equity Futures (ES -0.6%, NQ 1%, RTY -0.5%) are entirely in the red, as traders position themselves ahead of today’s key risk event, the US NFP report.
Top European News
ECB’s Elderson speaks on “Nature-related risk: legal implications for central banks, supervisors and financial institutions”; not pertinent to monetary policy.
FX
DXY is flat ahead of the much-awaited August NFP report, where the headline figure is expected to print at 160k. Should the release come in soft, the YTD low from August 27th sits at 100.51.
EUR/USD is sitting just above the 1.11 mark with not much follow-through from yet more soft German data and the appointment of Barnier as French PM. Upside sees the late-August peak at 1.1201, downside sees yesterday’s low at 1.1074.
Flat trade for GBP vs. the USD and EUR, with UK-specific newsflow quiet today. Cable did briefly take out yesterday’s 1.3186 high but is ultimately struggling to move back onto a 1.32 handle
JPY the best performer across the majors after gaining ground vs. the USD in early European trade. No clear fundamental driver behind the move, but comments from ex-BoJ Governor Kuroda that the short-term nominal rate may be less than 2%, could be a factor. USD/JPY has slipped from an overnight peak at 143.48 to a current session low at 142.07.
Antipodeans are mildly diverging. AUD is a touch softer vs. the USD but with AUD/USD near the mid-point of the week’s 0.6685-0.6794 range. Similar price action for NZD/USD with the pair contained within this week’s 0.6169-0.6299 band.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0925 vs exp. 7.0927 (prev. 7.0989)
Fixed Income
USTs are bid but not to quite the same extent as European peers after the pronounced two-way action seen on Thursday’s data points and as participants await today’s NFP report. USTs are holding around 115-00+ which marks the December contract high and is just three ticks shy of the September contract peak from early August.
Bunds are firmer and above Thursday’s ADP-driven 134.29 best to a fresh 134.61 WTD peak. If the upside continues, resistance features at 134.93 before the figure and then the contract high of 135.66.
Gilts are also benefiting from the general risk tone. Gilts eclipsed the 100.00 mark with nothing of note now until the 100.30 contract high from the 14th of August.
Commodities
Crude was initially firmer, benefiting from the weaker Dollar. Since, oil turned lower, in-fitting with the general risk tone and as markets await US NFP. Brent’Nov currently around USD 72.75/bbl.
Spot gold is little changed and in a narrow range but one that is entirely above USD 2500/oz.
Base metals are steady and unable to benefit from the softer USD which has been overshadowed by the risk tone deteriorating in the European morning.
Kazakhstan expects a significant reduction in oil production during planned repair period at Kashagan oil field (400k BPD) in October.
Citi sees the OPEC+ unwind delay and ongoing geopolitics and financial positioning providing price support at USD 70-72/bbl in Brent. Citi recommends selling on a bounce toward USD 80/bbl Brent, as it looks ahead to move down to the USD 60/bbl range in 2025 as a sizeable market surplus emerges.
Goldman Sachs pushed back their end-2024 copper price target of USD 12,000/t to after 2025 and lowered the 2025 aluminium price forecast to USD 2,540/t (from USD 2,850/t).
Citi maintains 0-3-month price forecasts for copper at USD 9,500/t, aluminium at USD 2,500/t, and zinc at USD 2,800/t; “We reiterate our cautious outlook for the base metals complex until after the US election when we expect more clarity on US and China policy and improving manufacturing sentiment as Fed rate cuts progress.” (Newswires)
Indian gov’t is reportedly considering cutting diesel and petrol prices, via Reuters citing India Today sources.
BofA says that fundamentals for Tin remain solid and sees prices rising to an average of USD 37k/ton by 2026 vs. prev. view of USD 32.5k/ton.
Geopolitics
US Secretary of State Blinken said 90% of the Gaza ceasefire agreement is agreed upon, but critical issues remain where there are gaps; Incumbent on both parties to get to yes on remaining issues.
“The Israeli army withdraws from Jenin and its camp after 10 days of military operations”, according to Sky News
US event calendar
08:30: Aug. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 165,000, prior 114,000
Aug. Change in Private Payrolls, est. 140,000, prior 97,000
Aug. Unemployment Rate, est. 4.2%, prior 4.3%
Aug. Underemployment Rate, prior 7.8%
Aug. Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.7%, prior 62.7%
Aug. Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.3, prior 34.2
Aug. Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
Aug. Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 3.7%, prior 3.6%
Aug. Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. -2,000, prior 1,000
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
After much anticipation, we have finally arrived at the latest US jobs report day, which is of crucial importance as the Fed decides how much to cut rates this month. It was only five weeks ago that the last jobs report underwhelmed, with payrolls growth down to just +114k alongside negative revision to the previous couple of months. So the big question today is whether that disappointing report was just a blip, or was it the start of a more serious deterioration.
That last report triggered significant market turmoil, and led investors to immediately dial up the likelihood that the Fed would start cutting rates with a 50bp move. However, it’s also worth noting that the turmoil last month came on the back of several other factors, including the BoJ’s hike that week (hence an unwinding of the yen carry trade) along with a very underwhelming ISM manufacturing print the previous day. So the downside surprise in the jobs report was running into a very tough context. By contrast, the data over the weeks since has been a lot more mixed, with plenty for both sides of the debate to focus on.
On the bright side, yesterday brought a further decline in the weekly initial jobless claims, which is one of the timeliest indicators we get on the state of the US labour market. They fell to 227k (vs. 230k expected) over the week ending August 30, which was an 8-week low. In turn, that also pushed the 4-week moving average down to 230k, which is a 12-week low. Bear in mind that four weeks earlier, the 4-week moving average stood at 241k, so that’s seen a clear improvement in the last month. On top of that, we also found out that the ISM services index remained in the expansionary territory in August at 51.5 (vs. 51.4 expected). So again that points away from a sharper downturn.
That said, yesterday also brought some more negative prints. In particular, the ADP’s report of private payrolls for August fell to just 99k (vs. 145k expected). That’s the lowest it’s been since January 2021, and it was also a 5th consecutive monthly decline for that measure. And of course, the previous day we had the JOLTS report for July, where job openings fell to a three-and-a-half year low.
In terms of what to expect today, DB’s US economists are forecasting payrolls rose by +150k in August, which assumes that we get a rebound from the weather issues from last month’s report. Similarly for the unemployment rate, they see that coming down from 4.3% last month to 4.2%. Their take is that some bounce back in the labour market data would support their baseline view that the Fed should start cutting in 25bp increments. But if the jobs report is weaker than expected, then that could motivate a more aggressive start to rate cuts, with a 50bps move in September on the table. We’ll hear from the Fed’s Williams and Waller today, but the blackout period begins tomorrow ahead of the next meeting, so today is the last opportunity we’ll get to hear from Fed officials before their decision.
Going into the report, markets slightly dialled back the chance of a 50bp rate cut, which was down to 41% by the close, although it’s ticked up again overnight to 43% as we go to press. That trend yesterday was supported by the stronger ISM services release, which also saw the prices paid component rise to 57.3 (vs. 56.0 expected). However, the total amount of rate cuts priced over the next 12 months was little changed at 220bps by the close, and 2yr Treasury yields saw a marginal decline to their lowest in nearly two years (-1.1bps to 3.74%). 10yr yields were down -2.8bps to 3.73%, their lowest since June 2023. Overnight that trend has continued, with the 2yr yield down -1.2bps to 3.73%, whilst the 10yr yield is down a further -1.3bps to 3.71%.
US equities also struggled going into the payrolls release, with the S&P 500 (-0.30%) losing ground for a 3rd consecutive day. So September is continuing to live up to its reputation as the weakest month for the index, with the S&P 500 already down -2.57% since it began. Remember if it does end the month lower, it would be the 5th consecutive September that it’s lost ground now. Those losses also came despite a strong performance for the Magnificent 7 (+1.56%). This was led by Tesla (+4.90%), which outperformed after announcing that it plans to launch its advanced driver assistance system in Europe and China in early 2025. But the equity mood was more downbeat otherwise, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-0.61%) and the small cap Russell 2000 (-0.61%) underperforming.
Overnight that weaker trend has continued, with futures on the S&P 500 (-0.09%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.38%) both pointing towards further losses. In part, this follows an underwhelming outlook from chipmaker Broadcom after the market close, with its shares down by nearly -7% in after-hours trading. Meanwhile in Asia, the major indices have lost ground as well, with declines for the Nikkei (-0.49%), the KOSPI (-0.84%), the Hang Seng (-0.07%), the CSI 300 (-0.27%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.23%).
Over in Europe, the main news yesterday was that French President Macron named Michel Barnier as the new Prime Minister. It follows the legislative elections that took place in July, after which no party or grouping was able to achieve a governing majority in the National Assembly. Barnier comes from the centre-right Les Républicains, and has significant experience in the EU, having most recently served as their chief Brexit negotiator.
When it came to European markets, equities performed similarly to the US, and the STOXX 600 (-0.54%) posted a fourth consecutive decline. Sovereign bonds also posted similar moderate gains, with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.7bps), OATs (-2.6bps) and BTPs (-1.4bps) all moving lower.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US jobs report for August. In addition, we’ll get July data on German and French industrial production, along with Italian retail sales. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Williams and Waller.
2B) European report
Equities are lower, JPY gains & DXY holds flat ahead of US NFP – Newsquawk US Market Open
Friday, Sep 06, 2024 – 05:45 AM
Equities are lower across the board and now hold at lows ahead of the US NFP report
Dollar is flat, JPY continues to advance amid the broader risk tone
Bonds are bid, USTs less-so as attention remains firmly on US unemployment data
Crude is flat in what has been a choppy session thus far, XAU is also little changed whilst base metals are mixed
Looking ahead, US NFP, Canadian Employment; Fed’s Williams, Waller
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.3%) opened the session entirely in the red, and sentiment continued to sour as the morning progressed. Indices then found support and traversed worst levels, but with some choppy price action.
European sectors hold a strong negative bias; Media takes the top spot, alongside Healthcare. Energy is towards the foot of the pile, hampered by the broader weakness in oil prices.
US Equity Futures (ES -0.6%, NQ 1%, RTY -0.5%) are entirely in the red, as traders position themselves ahead of today’s key risk event, the US NFP report.
DXY is flat ahead of the much-awaited August NFP report, where the headline figure is expected to print at 160k. Should the release come in soft, the YTD low from August 27th sits at 100.51.
EUR/USD is sitting just above the 1.11 mark with not much follow-through from yet more soft German data and the appointment of Barnier as French PM. Upside sees the late-August peak at 1.1201, downside sees yesterday’s low at 1.1074.
Flat trade for GBP vs. the USD and EUR, with UK-specific newsflow quiet today. Cable did briefly take out yesterday’s 1.3186 high but is ultimately struggling to move back onto a 1.32 handle
JPY the best performer across the majors after gaining ground vs. the USD in early European trade. No clear fundamental driver behind the move, but comments from ex-BoJ Governor Kuroda that the short-term nominal rate may be less than 2%, could be a factor. USD/JPY has slipped from an overnight peak at 143.48 to a current session low at 142.07.
Antipodeans are mildly diverging. AUD is a touch softer vs. the USD but with AUD/USD near the mid-point of the week’s 0.6685-0.6794 range. Similar price action for NZD/USD with the pair contained within this week’s 0.6169-0.6299 band.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0925 vs exp. 7.0927 (prev. 7.0989)
USTs are bid but not to quite the same extent as European peers after the pronounced two-way action seen on Thursday’s data points and as participants await today’s NFP report. USTs are holding around 115-00+ which marks the December contract high and is just three ticks shy of the September contract peak from early August.
Bunds are firmer and above Thursday’s ADP-driven 134.29 best to a fresh 134.61 WTD peak. If the upside continues, resistance features at 134.93 before the figure and then the contract high of 135.66.
Gilts are also benefiting from the general risk tone. Gilts eclipsed the 100.00 mark with nothing of note now until the 100.30 contract high from the 14th of August.
Crude was initially firmer, benefiting from the weaker Dollar. Since, oil turned lower, in-fitting with the general risk tone and as markets await US NFP. Brent’Nov currently around USD 72.75/bbl.
Spot gold is little changed and in a narrow range but one that is entirely above USD 2500/oz.
Base metals are steady and unable to benefit from the softer USD which has been overshadowed by the risk tone deteriorating in the European morning.
Kazakhstan expects a significant reduction in oil production during planned repair period at Kashagan oil field (400k BPD) in October.
Citi sees the OPEC+ unwind delay and ongoing geopolitics and financial positioning providing price support at USD 70-72/bbl in Brent. Citi recommends selling on a bounce toward USD 80/bbl Brent, as it looks ahead to move down to the USD 60/bbl range in 2025 as a sizeable market surplus emerges.
Goldman Sachs pushed back their end-2024 copper price target of USD 12,000/t to after 2025 and lowered the 2025 aluminium price forecast to USD 2,540/t (from USD 2,850/t).
Citi maintains 0-3-month price forecasts for copper at USD 9,500/t, aluminium at USD 2,500/t, and zinc at USD 2,800/t; “We reiterate our cautious outlook for the base metals complex until after the US election when we expect more clarity on US and China policy and improving manufacturing sentiment as Fed rate cuts progress.” (Newswires)
Indian gov’t is reportedly considering cutting diesel and petrol prices, via Reuters citing India Today sources.
BofA says that fundamentals for Tin remain solid and sees prices rising to an average of USD 37k/ton by 2026 vs. prev. view of USD 32.5k/ton.
German Trade Balance, EUR, SA (Jul) 16.8B vs. Exp. 21.0B (Prev. 20.4B); Exports MM 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. -3.4%); Imports MM 5.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
German Industrial Output MM (Jul) -2.4% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. 1.4%)
UK Halifax House Prices MM (Aug) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.8%, Rev. 0.9%)
UK BBA Mortgage Rate (Aug) 7.83% (Prev. 7.98%, Rev. 8.03%)
Italian Retail Sales NSA YY* (Jul) 1.0% (Prev. -1.0%); Retail Sales SA MM (Jul) 0.5% (Prev. -0.2%)
EU Employment Final YY (Q2) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.8%); Employment Final QQ (Q2) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%); GDP Revised YY (Q2) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%); GDP Revised QQ (Q2) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
ECB’s Elderson speaks on “Nature-related risk: legal implications for central banks, supervisors and financial institutions”; not pertinent to monetary policy.
GEOPOLITICS
US Secretary of State Blinken said 90% of the Gaza ceasefire agreement is agreed upon, but critical issues remain where there are gaps; Incumbent on both parties to get to yes on remaining issues.
“The Israeli army withdraws from Jenin and its camp after 10 days of military operations”, according to Sky News
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Broadcom Inc (AVGO) Q3 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.24 (exp. 1.20), Revenue 13.07bln (exp. 12.96bln). Adj. EBITDA 8.22bln (exp. 7.89bln); Sees Q4 revenue about 14bln (exp. 14.13bln). Semiconductor solutions revenue 7.27bln (exp. 7.41bln). Infrastructure software revenue 5.80bln (exp. 5.5bln). Adj. operating income 7.95bln (exp. 7.73bln) Adj. R&D expense 1.47bln (exp 1.47bln). Capital expenditure 172mln (exp 140.5mln). Exec said the Co. is raising FY24 revenue forecasts to USD 51.5bln (prev. USD 51bln; exp. 51.46bln). Shares fell ~6.7% after earnings.
Intel (INTC) is said to be exploring the sale of part of its stake in Mobileye (MBLY), according to Bloomberg sources; said to be a large stake. Intel also weighing options for its network and edge business.
Qualcomm (QCOM) has reportedly explored buying pieces of Intel’s (INTC) design business, Reuters sources said.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) sold about 18.8mln Bank of America (BAC) common shares for approximately USD 760mln between Sept 3 and Sept 5, according to an SEC filing
APAC
APAC stocks traded without a firm direction following a similar lead from Wall Street, with the tone tentative heading into the much-awaited US jobs report, which could be the determining factor between a 25bps or 50bps cut by the Fed after the central bank shifted its emphasis to the labour market. As a reminder, Fed Vice Chair Williams and Governor Waller will be speaking after the jobs numbers ahead of the Fed’s blackout period set to begin this weekend for the September 18th announcement.
ASX 200 just about held onto gains at one point, with Utilities, Financials, Real Estate and Gold names countering the underperformance in Energy and Tech.
Nikkei 225 was subdued under the 37k mark (and briefly dipped under 36.5k) with mining and industrial names among the worst performers, whilst Nippon Steel shares fell around 3% amid the ongoing spat with the Biden admin after the US intervened in the Nippon Steel takeover of US Steel amid national security risks.
Hang Seng saw its Friday trade scrapped amid a typhoon signal.
Shanghai Comp saw subdued trade amid the broader tentative mood across the market and lack of Stock Connect flows. In terms of newsflow, former PBoC Governor Yi Gang offered a bleak prognosis of the Chinese economy, whilst the PBoC drained a net CNY 1.1916tln for the week via open market operations, marking the biggest weekly net cash withdrawal in eight months, according to Reuters calculations.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Former PBoC Governor Yi Gang, speaking at the Bund Summit, stated that China currently faces weak domestic demand, particularly in consumption and investment. He expressed hope that in the near future, China’s GDP deflator will turn slightly positive. Additionally, Yi hopes that the producer price industry will improve to about zero by the end of this year. He suggests that China should return to a proactive fiscal policy and an accommodative monetary policy.
PBoC injected CNY 141.5bln via 7-day Reverse Repo at a maintained rate of 1.70%.
PBoC drained a net CNY 1.1916tln for the week via open market operations, marking the biggest weekly net cash withdrawal in eight months, according to Reuters calculations.
HKEX confirmed no trading on Friday in securities and derivatives markets due to the issuance of Typhoon Signal No. 8. Stock Connect trading is also suspended for the day. No securities clearing and settlement services will be provided for the day.
Japan Finance Minister Suzuki said there is a need to examine the impact of potential investment tax hikes on the economy and stock prices when asked about the preproposal, according to Reuters.
Toyota (7203 JT) to cut 2026 global EV production to around 1mln units, down 30% from previously announced 1.5mln, via Nikkei.
Former BoJ Governor Kuroda said overnight “A nominal neutral rate, which the Bank of Japan is trying to gradually approach, could be less than 2%,” and “A short-term nominal rate may be less than 2%, maybe around 1.5% or maybe less than that.”
S&P Global Ratings says China Vanke (2202 HK) is downgraded to “BB-” amid weakening sales and margins; outlook Negative
APAC DATA RECAP
Japanese All Household Spending YY (Jul) 0.1% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. -1.4%); MM -1.7% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.1%)
Japanese Foreign Reserves (Aug) 1.236T (Prev. 1.219T)
2C) ASIAN REPORT
JPY edged higher in otherwise contained trade ahead of NFP – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Friday, Sep 06, 2024 – 01:51 AM
APAC stocks traded without a firm direction following a similar lead from Wall Street ahead of NFP; Hong Kong had Friday trade scrapped amid a typhoon signal.
G10 currencies were largely flat but the JPY gradually edged higher in APAC trade while Antipodeans held a mild downward bias.
European equity futures are indicative of a steady cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after cash closed -0.7% on Thursday.
US Secretary of State Blinken said 90% of the Gaza ceasefire agreement is agreed upon, but critical issues remain where there are gaps.
Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Output, Trade, EZ Employment (F), US NFP, Canadian Employment, ECB’s Elderson; Fed’s Williams, Waller, and Earnings from Berkeley.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks lacked direction for most of the day but ultimately headed lower late in the session following a slew of mixed US data, as sentiment was initially weighed on by soft ADP which came in beneath the bottom-end of the forecast range. Sectors finished largely in the red with the downside led by Health Care, Industrials, and Financials.
SPX -0.3% at 5,503, NDX +0.05% at 18,930, DJIA -0.54% at 40,756, RUT -0.61% at 2,132
US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the US labour market has become less tight but continues to create jobs. “We have a good, strong job market, and growth continues at a rapid pace.”
Republican candidate Trump said he will create a Government Efficiency Commission and will end 10 regulations for every new one introduced. He promises to make the US the leader in cryptocurrency and to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits. For companies manufacturing products in the US, he plans to reduce the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%. He intends to impose significant tariffs if products are imported from other countries and will use tariffs to encourage domestic production. Trump also proposes opening up portions of federal land for large-scale housing construction in zones that will have ultra-low taxes and minimal regulation. Additionally, he suggests that the US should establish its sovereign wealth fund.
NOTABLE US EQUITY UPDATES
Broadcom Inc (AVGO) Q3 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.24 (exp. 1.20), Revenue 13.07bln (exp. 12.96bln). Adj. EBITDA 8.22bln (exp. 7.89bln); Sees Q4 revenue about 14bln (exp. 14.13bln). Semiconductor solutions revenue 7.27bln (exp. 7.41bln). Infrastructure software revenue 5.80bln (exp. 5.5bln). Adj. operating income 7.95bln (exp. 7.73bln) Adj. R&D expense 1.47bln (exp 1.47bln). Capital expenditure 172mln (exp 140.5mln). Exec said the Co. is raising FY24 revenue forecasts to USD 51.5bln (prev. USD 51bln; exp. 51.46bln). Shares fell ~6.7% after earnings.
Intel (INTC) is said to be exploring the sale of part of its stake in Mobileye (MBLY), according to Bloomberg sources; said to be a large stake. Intel also weighing options for its network and edge business.
Qualcomm (QCOM) has reportedly explored buying pieces of Intel’s (INTC) design business, Reuters sources said.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) sold about 18.8mln Bank of America (BAC) common shares for approximately USD 760mln between Sept 3 and Sept 5, according to an SEC filing
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded without a firm direction following a similar lead from Wall Street, with the tone tentative heading into the much-awaited US jobs report, which could be the determining factor between a 25bps or 50bps cut by the Fed after the central bank shifted its emphasis to the labour market. As a reminder, Fed Vice Chair Williams and Governor Waller will be speaking after the jobs numbers ahead of the Fed’s blackout period set to begin this weekend for the September 18th announcement.
ASX 200 just about held onto gains at one point, with Utilities, Financials, Real Estate and Gold names countering the underperformance in Energy and Tech.
Nikkei 225 was subdued under the 37k mark (and briefly dipped under 36.5k) with mining and industrial names among the worst performers, whilst Nippon Steel shares fell around 3% amid the ongoing spat with the Biden admin after the US intervened in the Nippon Steel takeover of US Steel amid national security risks.
Hang Seng saw its Friday trade scrapped amid a typhoon signal.
Shanghai Comp saw subdued trade amid the broader tentative mood across the market and lack of Stock Connect flows. In terms of newsflow, former PBoC Governor Yi Gang offered a bleak prognosis of the Chinese economy, whilst the PBoC drained a net CNY 1.1916tln for the week via open market operations, marking the biggest weekly net cash withdrawal in eight months, according to Reuters calculations.
US equity futures traded mixed with the ES and NQ in the red for most of the session (ES briefly dipped under 5,500 and yesterday’s low at 5,490) while the RTY and YM eked mild gains.
European equity futures are indicative of a steady cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after cash closed -0.7% on Thursday.
FX
DXY saw flat trade in a 100.93-101.06 APAC range with volatility non-existent ahead of the US jobs report. for references, DXY printed a 100.96-101.37 range yesterday with the trough printed post-ADP.
EUR/USD was uneventful above 1.1100 in a narrow 1.1106-14 range and within yesterday’s 1.1073-1.1119 range. If yesterday’s high is breached, then the next level to eye is the 29th August high at 1.1139.
GBP/USD saw another flat APAC session amid a lack of catalysts with the pair in a tight 1.3169-81 range, near yesterday’s peak at 1.3185 (vs low 1.3134), with the next level to the upside the 30th August high at 1.3199.
USD/JPY edged lower and eventually fell under 143.00 as JPY very gradually tilted higher against major peers amid the cautious tone, but parameters remained relatively narrow. USD/JPY in a 142.90-143.44 range (vs yesterday’s 142.83-144.22 range.
Antipodeans held a downward bias but overall there was uneventful trade across the risk barometers amid a lack of newsflow and ahead of major risk events.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0925 vs exp. 7.0927 (prev. 7.0989)
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures experienced contained pre-NFP trade with futures also taking a breather after yesterday’s rally seen across the curve, particularly in the longer end, amid a mixed bag of US data with 2s/10s again failing to sustain an inversion.
Bund futures consolidated after falling from a 134.29 peak to a 133.82 low yesterday, although the Dec contract closed above 134.00 at 134.05.
10yr JGB futures saw little action with APAC traders hesitant to place trades and looking to next week to react to the US NFP data.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures traded choppy within narrow ranges following a flat Thursday settlement as China woes and the Libyan supply resumption counter the large crude draws this week and bullish OPEC headlines.
Spot gold was subject to sideways trade in a narrow USD 5/oz range ahead of the US jobs report after posting a USD 2,493.59-2,523.29/oz range yesterday.
Copper futures were directionless after yesterday’s mixed session, and with the base metals complex looking for impetus from the US jobs report.
OPEC said eight participating countries have agreed to extend their additional voluntary cuts of 2.2mln bpd for two months until the end of November, according to Reuters.
Citi sees the OPEC+ unwind delay and ongoing geopolitics and financial positioning providing price support at USD 70-72/bbl in Brent. Citi recommends selling on a bounce toward USD 80/bbl Brent, as it looks ahead to move down to the USD 60/bbl range in 2025 as a sizeable market surplus emerges.
Goldman Sachs pushed back their end-2024 copper price target of USD 12,000/t to after 2025 and lowered the 2025 aluminium price forecast to USD 2,540/t (from USD 2,850/t).
Citi maintains 0-3-month price forecasts for copper at USD 9,500/t, aluminium at USD 2,500/t, and zinc at USD 2,800/t; “We reiterate our cautious outlook for the base metals complex until after the US election when we expect more clarity on US and China policy and improving manufacturing sentiment as Fed rate cuts progress.” (Newswires)
CRYPTO
Bitcoin posted mild gains overnight but remained well under 57k.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Former PBoC Governor Yi Gang, speaking at the Bund Summit, stated that China currently faces weak domestic demand, particularly in consumption and investment. He expressed hope that in the near future, China’s GDP deflator will turn slightly positive. Additionally, Yi hopes that the producer price industry will improve to about zero by the end of this year. He suggests that China should return to a proactive fiscal policy and an accommodative monetary policy.
PBoC injected CNY 141.5bln via 7-day Reverse Repo at a maintained rate of 1.70%.
PBoC drained a net CNY 1.1916tln for the week via open market operations, marking the biggest weekly net cash withdrawal in eight months, according to Reuters calculations.
HKEX confirmed no trading on Friday in securities and derivatives markets due to the issuance of Typhoon Signal No. 8. Stock Connect trading is also suspended for the day. No securities clearing and settlement services will be provided for the day.
Japan Finance Minister Suzuki said there is a need to examine the impact of potential investment tax hikes on the economy and stock prices when asked about the preproposal, according to Reuters.
DATA RECAP
Japanese All Household Spending YY (Jul) 0.1% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. -1.4%)
Japanese All Household Spending MM (Jul) -1.7% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. 0.1%)
Japanese Foreign Reserves (Aug) 1.236T (Prev. 1.219T)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
US Secretary of State Blinken said 90% of the Gaza ceasefire agreement is agreed upon, but critical issues remain where there are gaps; Incumbent on both parties to get to yes on remaining issues.
“The Israeli army withdraws from Jenin and its camp after 10 days of military operations”, according to Sky News
US-CHINA
US Commerce Department unveiled the latest export curbs and targets China with new quantum, chip-related export curbs and latest global controls exempt countries with similar measures, according to Bloomberg. Rules align with those from Japan, the Netherlands, and other allies.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
No notable news.
DATA RECAP
LATAM
BCB Director Guillen said the external scenario has become a bit more benign since the latest rate decision. He noted the GDP surprise; growth was primarily led by consumption, and there is a tight labour market. Inflation expectations have not shifted significantly, continue to be deanchored, and keep him uncomfortable. Guillen mentioned that monetary policy must be conducted to bring inflation expectations back in line. The FX intervention was really about providing liquidity. He does not favour updating the neutral rate every quarter in real time and is comfortable with the current estimate of the neutral rate.
2 JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA/
IRON ORE dropped to 90 dollars per tonnes and now the Chinese steel industry is warning of problems if they ramp up production during a severe slowdown
(zerohedge)
Chinese Steel Industry Warns Of ‘Flash In A Pan’ Recovery If Mills Ramp Production Amid Severe Slowdown
Friday, Sep 06, 2024 – 04:15 AM
The official journal of China’s metals industry was correct late last month when it called the 10% jump in iron ore prices that breached $100/ton “irrational” and “lacked fundamental support.” Now, prices trend around the $90/ton handle as China’s top steel industry group warned mills to be cautious in boosting output.
Goldman’s Rich Privorotsky told clients this morning, “Iron ore is dropping to 90, China will continue to struggle, and commodities as a whole, I think, are reflecting the downgrade to growth expectations in the geography.”
The China Iron & Steel Association released a memo (first published by Bloomberg) to industry insiders this week, indicating, “There will be a certain degree of recovery in steel demand through September and October, which is favorable for the steel market.”
“However, we need to be cautious of the impulse to restart production,” the association said, adding the risk of too much steelmaking material output could dampen “any improvement in the situation will end up a flash in the pan.”
China’s steel industry has been under pressure amid a severe property market downturn and weak economic recovery. Last month, Baowu Steel Group Chairman Hu Wangming warned that economic conditions in the world’s second-largest economy felt like a “harsh winter.”
As the world’s largest steel producer, Baowu Steel’s chairman said the steel industry’s downturn could be “longer, colder, and more difficult to endure than expected,” potentially mirroring the severe downturns of 2008 and 2015.
This should serve as a major wake-up call for macro observers that a recovery in China isn’t imminent; in fact, Beijing might not unleash the monetary and fiscal cannons until after the US presidential elections.
In recent weeks, Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham and Daan Struyven said iron ore’s “fundamental outlook remains bleak”:
The fundamental outlook remains bleak, in our view. While both port and in-plant iron ore stocks declined this week, visible stocks remain elevated compared to ‘normal’ August levels and mills’ destocking (despite the drop in iron ore prices) could be an indication of a negative production outlook. This would not be surprising given only 1% of Chinese steel mills are currently profitable, according to a Mysteel survey.
Meanwhile, our China property team have cut their forecasts for gross floor area starts and completions for 2024, and our China economists have highlighted rising downside risk to Chinese growth, both of which could have negative implications for steel demand, discussed in this week’s Macro Highlight.
In the absence of a hot metal output recovery, continued strong iron ore supply means that we maintain the view that iron ore needs to remain below $100/t for long enough to trigger a sufficient supply response to re-balance the market.
Here’s the most stunning chart from the report. It shows that only 1% of steel mills in China are profitable. As profitability collapses, hot metal output declines.
A separate Goldman note published earlier this week warned the Chinese steel industry downturn has created a “challenging environment for iron ore.”
The drop in Chinese rebar and hot-rolled coil prices to their lowest levels since 2017 signals the storm clouds continue gathering above, suggesting that a broader recovery won’t occur this year.
The broader commodities complex has been plagued by China slowdown fears, with Brent crude sliding to $73/bbl – ignoring Eastern Europe and Middle East war risks.
LME Asia copper inventories have surged to the highest levels since 2016.
Even veteran commodities analyst Jeff Currie dialed back his super bull thesis on the base metal because of mounting economic woes in China.
With the Bloomberg Commodity Index sliding and JPM Global Manufacturing PMI sub 50 in contraction…
… Zhao Liang, head of research at GF Futures Co, summed up the environment for Bloomberg in an interview: “The fundamental picture supports the slide in. Overall, it’s due to weak steel demand—people are pessimistic.”
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
FRANCE
Barnier is the new conservative French Prime Minister
(zerohedge)
Macron Names Michel Barnier As New French Prime Minister
French President Emmanuel Macron has named the European Union’s former Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier as France’s next prime minister.
Barnier’s new role was announced on Sept. 5 after a caretaker government was in place for more than 50 days.
Barnier’s new role was announced on Sept. 5 after a caretaker government was in place for more than 50 days.
The 73-year-old led the EU’s talks with Britain from 2016 to 2021 over its exit from the bloc.
Before that, the conservative politician held roles in various French governments and also served as the EU’s commissioner.
Barnier’s appointment follows weeks of intense efforts by Macron and his aides to find a candidate who could form a new government, two months after a snap election defeat.
The leader of the right-wing populist National Rally Party and Macron’s two-time presidential rival, Marine Le Pen, said on social media platform X that Barnier “seems to meet at least the first criterion” that had been requested.
Michel Barnier semble répondre au moins au premier critère que nous avions réclamé, c'est-à dire, quelqu'un qui soit respectueux des différentes forces politiques et capable de pouvoir s'adresser au Rassemblement national, qui est le premier groupe de l'Assemblée nationale. pic.twitter.com/tW7rjULMNA
“That is to say, someone who is respectful of the different political forces and capable of addressing the National Rally, which is the first group in the National Assembly,” she said.
However, Le Pen wrote that she would “not participate in a government of any kind whatsoever of Mr Barnier’s.”
“For the rest, that is to say on the fundamental issues, we are waiting to see what Mr Barnier’s general policy speech is and the way in which he leads the compromises that will be necessary on the budget,” she wrote.
National Rally’s president, Jordan Bardella, said that “after an interminable wait, unworthy of a great democracy” his party acknowledged Barnier’s appointment.
“We will judge his general policy speech, his budgetary decisions and his actions on the evidence,“ he said. ”We will plead for the major emergencies of the French, the cost of living, security, immigration, to finally be addressed, and we reserve all political means of action if this is not the case in the coming weeks.”
‘Democratic Coup’
The left-wing New Popular Front alliance (NFP) had nominated civil servant Lucie Castets for prime minister.
“The President has just decided to officially deny the result of the legislative elections that he himself had called,” NFP leader Jean-Luc Melenchon said. “It is not the New Popular Front, which came out on top in the election, that will have the prime minister. … The election was therefore stolen from the French people. The message was denied.”
Left-wing lawmaker Mathilde Panot, who, like Melenchon, is part of La France Insoumise (France Unbowed), which includes the Communist Party, the Greens, and the Socialist Party, called for its supporters to join them “on the streets” on Sept. 7 to protest against an “unacceptable democratic coup in a democracy.”
Last month, Macron said he would not agree to a government led by the left-wing NFP, further extending the ongoing multi-party stalemate that prevented the nation from forming a government since a snap election in June.
He said at the time that France needed institutional stability and that a government led by the NFP would immediately face a no-confidence vote from all other parties.
“The Socialist Party, the Greens and the Communists have not yet proposed ways to cooperate with other political forces. It is now up to them to do so,” Macron said.
He said he would start new consultations with party leaders on Sept. 3, and he urged the left to cooperate with other political forces.
Macron called a snap election on June 9 that delivered a hung parliament, creating political uncertainty. He has been holding talks on a new government since the election and said he would continue to do so.
No group emerged from the snap election with a clear majority, with the vote evenly split among the NFP, Macron’s centrist political party En Marche, and the right-wing National Rally.
Reuters contributed to this report.
end
GERMANY/
GERMANY
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL//HAMAS/EGYPT
Egypt’s army chief visits Gaza border after Israel says Sissi failed on smuggling
Cairo says Netanyahu trying to hide failures with his comments on need to remain in Philadelphi Corridor; US expresses frustration with PM but blames Hamas for slow progress in talks
Egypt’s army chief of staff Lt. Gen. Ahmed Fathy Khalifa visits the Gaza border on the Egyptian side of Rafah, September 5, 2024. (X video screenshot: used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law)
Amid public criticism from top Israeli officials this week, Egypt’s army chief of staff Lt. Gen. Ahmed Fathy Khalifa made a surprise visit on Thursday to the country’s border with the Gaza Strip to inspect the security situation, state television reported, citing the army’s spokesperson.
The visit was widely seen as an indication of Egypt’s displeasure with recent comments from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and senior adviser Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, who both directly panned Egypt this week for its purported failure to prevent Hamas from smuggling in weapons from the Sinai Peninsula.
Unlike Netanyahu, Dermer mentioned Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi by name. He said that he was “not questioning the intentions of the Egyptians,” but rather was “questioning the results.”
Egypt pushed back on Israel’s accusations on Thursday, with a “high-ranking Egyptian source” telling Al Qahera al-Ikhbariya that Netanyahu’s statements are unrealistic, and that “he is trying to blame other countries for his failure to achieve his goals in the Gaza Strip.”
The Egyptian official also said that recent months have proven that Netanyahu does not care about the return of Israeli hostages if it gets in the way of his personal interests.
On Monday, Netanyahu made the case for a permanent Israeli presence on the Gaza-Egypt border, arguing that it was a necessary step to ensure Hamas cannot rearm and rebuild its control after its war with Israel ends. However, Dermer indicated that this demand may not be set in stone and that there could be alternative arrangements in the context of a long-term ceasefire.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands in front of a map of the Gaza Strip as he speaks during a press conference at the Government Press Office in Jerusalem on September 4, 2024. (Abir Sultan/Pool/AFP)
Cairo has remained vehemently opposed to Israel establishing any form of control over its border route, and on Tuesday protested that by defining the Philadelphi Corridor as a military zone, it would be violating the countries’ 1978 peace accord.
Nine years ago, Egypt razed thousands of homes on its side of the border to create a buffer zone with Gaza. Since then, it has said that smuggling is no longer an issue.
The accusations against Egypt also angered its regional allies.
The UAE’s foreign ministry put out a statement in which it expressed “its full solidarity with the Arab Republic of Egypt in the face of Israeli allegations and claims regarding the Philadelphi Corridor, and strongly condemns and denounces the offensive Israeli statements in this regard, which threaten stability and exacerbate the situation in the region.”
Saudi Arabia similarly said it “strongly condemns and denounces” Israel’s comments on the corridor, and accused it of making “futile attempts to justify continued violations of international laws and norms.”
IDF troops operate along the Philadelphi Corridor at the Gaza-Egypt border in August 2024. (IDF)
According to the Qatari-owned Al-Araby Al-Jadeed news outlet, Netanyahu had told Cairo ahead of his Monday press conference that he was willing to discuss the future of the Gaza-Egypt border in negotiations on the second phase of a deal. He was told, however, that Cairo would accept nothing less than a pledge to withdraw, even if it didn’t happen in the first phase of the deal.
Frustrating and difficult
With Netanyahu making his case for remaining in control of the Philadelphi Corridor in press conferences and interviews this week, Washington showed signs of exasperation.
A senior Biden administration official said on Wednesday that Netanyahu’s repeated public statements were making things “difficult.”
On Thursday, senior US officials eased up on Netanyahu.
US Ambassador Jack Lew (R) speaks with Tamir Hayman (L) the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv on September 5, 2024. (Screengrab)
“Very strong public comments sometimes coexist with residual flexibility, almost always,” US Ambassador Jack Lew said at a Tel Aviv conference.
Pressed on whether Netanyahu’s statements have become an obstacle to hostage negotiations, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby responded on Thursday that “the biggest obstacle to getting a ceasefire deal is Hamas.”
“They took the damn hostages in the first place,” Kirby said during a press briefing.
“As frustrating as it has been at times, and as unhelpful as not just public comments, but even private machinations in the negotiation purposes have been to the closure of the deal, it has not dimmed one bit President Biden’s commitment to trying to see this through,” he added.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby speaks during a press briefing at the White House, Wednesday, July 31, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Hamas’s lead negotiator on Thursday urged Washington to press Israel for a truce in Gaza, and reiterated that the terror group will accept nothing less than a full IDF withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor and the rest of the Strip.
“If the US administration and its President Biden really want to reach a ceasefire and complete a prisoner exchange deal, they must abandon their blind bias towards the Zionist occupation and exert real pressure on Netanyahu and his government,” Qatar-based Khalil al-Hayya said, according to a Hamas statement.
‘Not close’
Speaking to the “Fox and Friends” morning show amid a media blitz this week, Netanyahu said that an agreement to free hostages and pause the war is “not close,” adding, “There is not a deal in the making, unfortunately.”
Lew said earlier in the day that “progress continues to be made” on attempts to reach a hostage deal, “including on the key issues.”
Lew seemed to indicate that the most intractable topic is not the Philadelphi Corridor: “Negotiations have gotten into the most difficult issues, some of which are not the subject of most of the public discussion.”
A demonstrator lights a pink flare as others deploy a banner and raise pictures of hostages during an anti-government protest calling for action to secure the release of Israeli hostages held captive since the October 7 attack by Hamas, in front of the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv on September 4, 2024. (Jack Guez/AFP)
“The public debate masks where the real difficult issues are,” said Lew at the Institute for National Security Studies.
On that point, Netanyahu seemed to agree, stressing in his Fox interview that there are unresolved issues beyond the future of the Philadelphi Corridor.
A senior Biden administration official said on Wednesday that a hostage deal between Israel and Hamas was being held up by two remaining obstacles: the list of Palestinian security prisoners Hamas is seeking to free and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Philadelphi Corridor.
Netanyahu dispatched Mossad chief David Barnea to Doha on Monday to inform Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani that the IDF is prepared to fully withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor in the second phase of the deal.
Mossad chief David Barnea at a Memorial Day ceremony at the Western Wall in Jerusalem’s Old City, May 12, 2024. (Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)
Of the 251 hostages abducted to Gaza on October 7, 97 are believed to remain in captivity, including the bodies of at least 33 confirmed dead by the IDF. The bodies of 37 other hostages have been recovered.
Hamas executed six hostages last week, days before IDF troops came upon them.
NBC News reported on Wednesday that, given the lack of momentum and the murder of hostages, families of captives with American citizenship are petitioning the Biden administration to cut a unilateral deal with Hamas to free their loved ones.
However, the father of a US-Israeli held hostage in Gaza told Channel 12 that the report is false.
Asked about the report, Netanyahu told Fox that he doesn’t know what was said at a meeting between representatives of the families and Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, but that “I don’t judge the families. They’ve gone through this horrible anguish.”
An Israeli source told The Times of Israel on Thursday that Netanyahu’s office is concerned about the possibility of a unilateral US deal, and held an English-language press conference on Wednesday night — which largely repeated points Netanyahu had made to the Israeli press two nights before — in order to convince Washington not to do so.
end
Netanyahu Humiliates White House: ‘There’s No Gaza Deal In The Making… It’s Not Close’
Thursday, Sep 05, 2024 – 05:45 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday issued a bombshell of a statement which constitutes a glaring contradiction of the White House narrative on how things are going with Hamas negotiations toward a ceasefire deal. “There’s not a deal in the making,”he told Fox News. “Unfortunately, it’s not close.” He said this during a morning Fox News live interview segment.
The remarks are the firmest and most unequivocal Netanyahu has ever been regarding what are clearly failed and perhaps even dead international efforts to achieve a truce in Gaza.
For days and weeks now, a series of White House statements have claimed the Biden administration is spearheading efforts to achieve a peace deal and hostage swap, and Blinken and Kirby have used a variety of metaphors including being at “the goal line” while repeatedly claiming there’s been a comprehensive deal on the table that’s ‘close’.
However, only within the last couple days has President Biden’s rhetoric changed. On the one hand the administration has blamed Hamas for rejecting the deal, and other other Biden has begun saying that Netanyahu is “not doing enough” to achieve peace.
But the fresh Netanyahu interview confirms what many observers have suspected all along – that there’s no viable deal to speak of currently, and really there never was a deal ‘on the table’ or at ‘the goal line’ at all. According to Fox:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday morning dismissed reports that negotiators were close to agreeing a cease-fire deal.
“It’s exactly inaccurate,” Netanyahu told “Fox & Friends” co-host Brian Kilmeade during an interview. “There’s a story, a narrative out there that there’s a deal out there … that’s just a false narrative.”
Ironically the White House itself has been the biggest purveyor of this false narrative. This proves highly embarrassing to the US administration and the prime minister’s fresh remarks are sure to exacerbate already growing US-Israel tensions.
To emphasize this, Fox writes “He [Bibi] denied reports – by CNN and others – that the US Administration believes that an agreement is 90% completed.”
But ultimately, Netanyahu still laid blame on Hamas for there being no deal. He said to Fox that the group “don’t agree to anything. Not to the Philadelphi Corridor, not to the keys of exchanging hostages for jailed terrorists, not to anything. So that’s just a false narrative.”
Mass Israeli protests in the wake of the recent recovery of six dead hostages have demanded Netanyahu’s removal from office. The hostage victims’ families also claim he has thwarted a truce deal for the release of the hostages at every turn, instead choosing to prioritize the military operation against Gaza militants.
Netanyahu on Fox & Friends:
“There's not a deal in the making, unfortunately.. It’s not close…
“I'm not interested in my political future. I'm interested in my country's future..
“I have red lines. They were set before this massacre .. but they've become redder…” pic.twitter.com/ClpASHbhJb
CNN too observes of the development Thursday that the Israeli leader “was as clear as he has ever been about how he views a ceasefire and hostage agreement with Hamas.”
As many have predicted, it looks like the Gaza war is set to continue for at least months, and possibly years to come – especially given there’s no potential even temporary ceasefire on the horizon.
ISRAEL/USA
Hitting back at Trump, Harris campaign says he’ll turn on Israel when it suits his personal interests
Left: Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, August 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin); Right: Republican presidential nominee former president Donald Trump, August 21, 2024. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)
US Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign hits back at former president Donald Trump after the Republican nominee claimed Israel will be destroyed if he is not elected in November and repeated his assertion that Jewish Democrats need to “get their heads examined.”
“Donald Trump openly demeans Jewish Americans, proudly dined with a neo-Nazi and reportedly thinks Adolf Hitler ‘did some good things.’ He has said the only people he wants counting his money are ‘short guys wearing yarmulkes,’ and praised neo-Nazis who chanted ‘Jews will not replace us’ as ‘very fine people,’” says Harris-Walz campaign spokesperson Morgan Finkelstein.
“Donald Trump has made it obvious he would turn on Israel in a moment if it suited his personal interests; and, in fact, he has done so in the past,” she continues.
“Meanwhile, the vice president has been incredibly clear: she has been a lifelong supporter of the State of Israel as a secure, democratic homeland for the Jewish people. She has an unwavering commitment to the security of Israel and will always stand up for its right to defend itself. She also stands steadfastly against antisemitism both at home and abroad and will do the same as president,” Finkelstein adds.
ISRAEL/WEST BANK
At least 6 Palestinian gunmen killed in IDF drone strikes, clashes in West Bank
Military says it carried out several airstrikes on gunmen amid ongoing counterterrorism raid in Tubas area; one identified as son of notorious terrorist Zakaria Zubeidi
By Emanuel Fabian Follow5 September 2024, 10:51 amUpdated at 1:49 pm
Men inspect a vehicle that was targeted by an Israeli airstrike in Tubas in the north of the West Bank on September 5, 2024 (JAAFAR ASHTIYEH / AFP)
At least six Palestinian gunmen were killed in drone strikes and clashes with Israeli troops in the Tubas area of the northern West Bank early Thursday, authorities said.
The Israel Defense Forces said it had carried out a drone strike in the Far’a camp just before 2 a.m., and later, at around 4 a.m., said it carried out three more strikes in the city of Tubas.
The IDF said the strikes targeted Palestinian gunmen who were shooting and hurling explosive devices at troops during a new raid in the area.
The Palestinian Authority health ministry said that five men were killed in the strikes in Tubas, and local media reported that a sixth Palestinian was shot dead in Far’a.
The ministry named the five Palestinians killed in the strike in Tubas as Ahmed Abu Dawas, 24, Mohammed Abu Juma, 30, Qusay Abd al-Razeq, 26, Mohammed Abu Zagha, 23, and Mohammed Zubeidi, 21.
Mohammed Zubeidi was the son of notorious terrorist Zakaria Zubeidi, who in September 2021 escaped from Gilboa Prison along with five other high-security prisoners, leading Israeli security forces on a two-week manhunt before being caught.
The IDF said that the younger Zubeidi was a “prominent terrorist from the Jenin area” who participated in shooting attacks against Israeli towns close to the West Bank security barrier, as well as other attacks on troops.
The other four gunmen killed in Tubas were also involved in shooting attacks, the IDF added.
Meanwhile, in the Far’a camp, the IDF said a drone targeted a group of armed Palestinians who were hurling explosive devices at troops, and separately, members of the Israel Prison Service’s elite Metzada Unit killed a gunman who was armed with a bomb.
The IDF has been carrying out a major operation in the northern West Bank since August 28. The operation — internally dubbed “Summer Camps” by the army — began with simultaneous raids on Jenin, Tulkarem and the Far’a camp near Tubas, with the goal of dismantling Iran-backed Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terror networks in the three areas of the northern West Bank.
The military said Thursday that it began a new raid overnight in Tubas and the nearby Far’a camp, as well as a separate operation in Jericho.
So far, according to the IDF, more than 36 gunmen have been killed in the operation, among them the head of Hamas in Jenin and the head of Islamic Jihad in the Tulkarem area. Another 46 wanted Palestinians have been detained.
Bulldozers tear up a street during an Israeli raid in the centre of Jenin in the West Bank on September 3, 2024. (Photo by Zain JAAFAR / AFP)
Violence in the West Bank has surged in the past year, following the October 7 Hamas terror onslaught in southern Israel, in which some 1,200 people were massacred and 251 were taken hostage.
Since that date, Israeli troops have arrested some 5,000 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including more than 2,000 affiliated with Hamas.
According to the Palestinian Authority health ministry, more than 670 West Bank Palestinians have been killed in that time. The IDF says the vast majority of them were gunmen killed in exchanges of fire, rioters who clashed with troops or terrorists carrying out attacks.
During the same period, 29 people, including Israeli security personnel, have been killed in terror attacks in Israel and the West Bank. Another six members of the security forces have been killed in clashes with terror operatives in the West Bank.
END
ISRAEL /LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH
1,307 rockets fired from Lebanon in August, more than any month since war started
Kiryat Shmona mayor laments destruction of city, says terrorists must be made afraid to fire at Israel; four drones fired, barrage of five rockets launched at north
Rockets fired from southern Lebanon are intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system over the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel on September 4, 2024. (Jalaa MAREY / AFP)
More rockets were fired at Israel from Lebanon in August than in any previous month since war broke out almost a year ago, according to data published by the Shin Bet security agency Thursday.
The report said that 1,307 rockets were fired at Israel in August from the northern front, meaning Lebanon and Syria, amounting to just over 40 a day on average, with the vast majority coming from Lebanon.
July saw 1,091 rockets, June saw 855, May saw 1,000, April saw 744, March saw 746, February saw 534, and January saw 334, according to the Shin Bet.
Exact data was not immediately available for October, November, and December 2023, but the quantity was known to be smaller than in August.
By contrast, only 116 rockets were fired at Israel from Gaza in the last month, the report said.
The mayor of Kiryat Shmona lamented Thursday that his largely evacuated northern border town had been badly battered by rockets fired by terrorists from Lebanon, with many homes being destroyed.
Israeli security forces at the scene where a missile fired from Lebanon hit a home in the northern city of Kiryat Shmona, September 4, 2024. (Ayal Margolin/Flash90)
“Unfortunately, every day we have to tell more families that they will not have a home to return to, there are houses that need to be demolished and rebuilt,” Avichai Stern told the Ynet news site.
He asked why the lives of northern residents were apparently of lower value than those who lived in the center of the country, apparently referring to the IDF’s preemptive strike last month as Hezbollah was preparing to launch an attack on the Tel Aviv area.
“We need to get to a point where [terrorists] are afraid to fire at Kiryat Shmona,” he said.
Tens of thousands of residents of northern border communities have been evacuated since the start of the war, displaced from their homes for close to a year. Many accuse the government of not taking enough action against Hezbollah to enable them to return home safely.
On Thursday, two suspected drones launched from Lebanon were shot down by air defenses, the Israel Defense Forces said, adding that the two targets were intercepted over Lebanese airspace, and did not cross into Israeli territory. Later on, another two suspected drones were launched from Lebanon at the Western Galilee. The IDF said at least one impacted near Ya’ara.
In the afternoon, a barrage of some five rockets were also launched from Lebanon at the Ramot Naftali area, and some of the rockets were intercepted by air defenses, the IDF said.
After more than 100 rockets and missiles were launched by Hezbollah at northern Israel on Wednesday, the Israel Defense Forces conducted a series of airstrikes across southern Lebanon overnight.
Fighter jets struck more than 10 Hezbollah rocket launchers and other terror infrastructure, the IDF said, adding that the targets had “posed a threat to Israeli civilians.”
The strikes were carried out in southern Lebanon’s Jebbayn, Zawtar ash-Sharqiyah, and Ramyeh, according to the IDF.
Separately, the IDF said it had struck a Hezbollah site in southern Lebanon’s Qana in the afternoon.
An Israeli strike in southern Lebanon’s Kafra was also reported Thursday morning in Lebanese media.
A short while later, Hezbollah announced the death of operative Abbas Anis Ayoub, killed “on the road to Jerusalem,” its term for members slain in Israeli strikes.
Since October 8, Hezbollah-led forces have attacked Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a near-daily basis, with the group saying it is doing so to support Gaza amid the war there.
So far, the skirmishes have resulted in 26 civilian deaths on the Israeli side, as well as the deaths of 20 IDF soldiers and reservists. There have also been several attacks from Syria, without any injuries.
Hezbollah has named 433 members who have been killed by Israel during the ongoing skirmishes, mostly in Lebanon but some also in Syria. Another 76 operatives from other terror groups, a Lebanese soldier, and dozens of civilians have also been killed.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
IDF chief: ‘We are preparing for offensive moves’ in Lebanon
Soldiers practised evacuating wounded from a battlefield and operating in difficult terrain.
The IDF Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi, on Friday, conducted a situational assessment and tour at the 210th Division on the border of the Golan Heights along with the Commanding Officer of the Northern Command, MG Ori Gordin, the Commanding Officer of the 210th Division, BG Yair Peli.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
IDF Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi announced that the military was working toward reducing Hezbollah’s offensive capabilities during a situational assessment and tour at the 210th Division on the border of the Golan Heights on Friday, the IDF stated.
Halevi attended the border alongside the Commanding Officer of the Northern Command, MG Ori Gordin, the Commanding Officer of the 210th Division, BG Yair Peli, and additional commanders.
During this assessment, the military officials detailed both offensive and defensive actions, including enhancing the barrier and components of intelligence gathering.
“The IDF is very focused on combat with Hezbollah. I think that the number of strikes in the past month, operatives eliminated, rockets and infrastructure destroyed, is very high,” Halevi said. “The Northern Command, with all of the IDF’s capabilities, is striking a lot of Hezbollah’s capabilities in Lebanon before they can attack us, and at the same time, we are preparing for offensive moves within the arena.
“I think that this combination of very significant strikes on Hezbollah to reduce the threats to the residents in the north, including in the Golan Heights, is very, very significant together with readiness for an offensive going forward that we are very engaged in.”
IDF prepares Battalion 11 with training in Israel’s North, September 6, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Preparing for Hezbollah
Soldiers from the 11th Battalion completed a multi-day military exercise aimed at ensuring combat readiness in northern Israel, the IDF announced on Friday.
The soldiers trained in combat and maneuver scenarios across various terrains, including dense forests and mountainous areas, while under simulated fire.
As part of this exercise, the military added that the soldiers practiced scenarios for evacuating wounded from the battlefield during live fire.
Preparing soldiers for the northern front
The National Center for Ground Training has led similar exercises over the duration of the war, as Hezbollah has become an increasing threat on Israel’s northern front.
Each of the 11th Battalion soldiers conducted the exercise after spending a period conducting operations in the Gaza Strip, where they saw to the elimination to the elimination of terrorists and the destruction of Hamas infrastructure, the IDF noted.
The Lebanon-based Iran-backed terror group has been launching aerial attacks against Israel since the war began in October 2023, when Hamas invaded central Israel and murdered some 1200 people.
In August, the terror group had planned to launch a mass aerial attack but was mostly thwarted by IAF pre-emptive strikes on its launchers. Despite this, the terror group fired rockets at civilian populations in northern and central Israel.
The mass attack had reportedly been the ‘first phase’ of a response planned by Iran, as Tehran held Israel accountable for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Israel has neither denied nor accepted responsibility for Haniyeh’s death.
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/
Putin Avoids ‘Kursk Trap’ As His Troops Poised To Take Pokrovsk
Friday, Sep 06, 2024 – 02:45 AM
President Putin has continued to downplay Ukraine’s major Kursk invasion, which has resulted in Russian territory occupied by Kiev forces, and has instead maintained that capturing and holding all the Donbass in eastern Ukraine remains the goal.
“We have to deal with these thugs who made it into Russia,”he said at an event while visiting Russia’s east on Thursday. He’s yet to launch a broader general mobilization despite the assault on Kursk and the border region.
He presented the Kursk operation as essentially a trap which he will not fall into. “The aim of the enemy [in Kursk] was to force us to worry, hustle, divert troops and to stop our offensive in key areas, especially in the Donbas, the liberation of which is our main primary objective,” Putin described at a forum in Vladivostok.
Putin further painted a picture of the Kursk operation already having backfired on the Zelensky government. He said Ukraine’s leadership sent “quite well-prepared units” into Kursk – but this only served to allow for Russia to make a quicker advance in Donetsk.
“The enemy weakened itself in key areas, our army has accelerated its offensive operations,” he asserted. He still sought to emphasize that Russian forces have begun to push the Ukrainian invaders back from Russian territory, however. But Putin said, “Our armed forces have stabilized the situation and started gradually squeezing [the enemy] out from our territory.”
Yet the Kursk fight has been on since Aug. 6 – and this alone has been a big symbolic blow for Kremlin war planners. It is the biggest incursion into Russia since WW2. “It is the holy duty of the Russian army to do everything to throw out the enemy from this territory and to protect our citizens,” Putin additionally declared.
President Zelensky in an interview with NBC this week claimed that Moscow had been forced to divert 60,000 soldiers from Ukraine to Kursk, but this has not been verified.
Currently there is broad consensus among analysts that Ukraine’s eastern city of Pokrovsk could fall at any moment. Russian forces are within five miles away, amid shelling and attacks on the city’s outskirts. If Pokrovsk falls, Russia will be in a position to more easily gobble up the rest of Donetsk, after which its hold on the whole of Donbass will be secured.
Al Jazeera reviews the situation, utilizing fresh battlefield maps, as follows:
Meanwhile Russian forces continued to press on towards Pokrovsk, a city in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region which has been their focus since they seized Avdiivka in February. They have formed a 29km (18 mile) long salient stretching to the west of Avdiivka since then and are within about 8km (5 miles) of the outskirts of Pokrovsk.
During the past week, Russian forces overran Novohrodivka and entered Hrodivka, two towns east of Pokrovsk. They also claimed to be on the outskirts of Myrnohrad, a town immediately to the east of Pokrovsk.
2/ Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction amid continued offensive operations in the area on September 4.
Geolocated footage published on September 4 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced south of Novohrodivka and marginally advanced west of… pic.twitter.com/PdlGexfStd
With all eyes on Pokrovsk in Ukraine and Kursk in Russia, the White House is still said to mulling greenlighting long-range missiles for Kiev, and their possible use on targets inside Russia.
The latest news wire out of Washington and from the administration is that the “US sees little value in sending Ukraine long-range ATACMS” systems.
UKRAINE/RUSSIA/ EUROPE/USA
end
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE
3 Surprising Cancer-Fighting Foods the Corrupt Medical System Will Never Promote
The cancer industry would lose billions if people knew this.
Black raspberries contain ellagic acid, a natural substance that has been shown to prompt cancer cells to “commit suicide.”
This powerful cancer-fighting food is packed with anthocyanins and antioxidants, which are compounds that can neutralize harmful free radicals in the body.
They also have a very high ORAC score, meaning they are exceptionally good at absorbing oxygen radicals. “This is real medicine,” cancer nutrition specialist Dr. Patrick Quillin attests.
Join 80K+ Substack readers and 1.1 million 𝕏 users who follow the work of Vigilant Fox. Subscribe to Vigilant News for exclusive stories you won’t find anywhere else.Subscribe
2. Figs
Figs contain a powerful enzyme called ficin, which is one of the more essential phytochemicals present in this fruit.
Ficin triggers apoptosis in cancer cells, eliminating them through programmed cell death.
Image: Shutterstock/Khimraj Shrestha
3. Peaches
A Harvard study showed that eating peaches just twice a week could lower the risk of breast cancer by a staggering 40%.
“If that was a drug, it would have been headlines in USA Today, CNN, everywhere. And the drug company’s stock would have doubled,” says Dr. Quillin says.
Image: Shutterstock/Nature’s clicks
Eating cancer-fighting foods is only half the battle; you also need to eliminate the harmful substances. Take aspartame, for instance—a common ingredient in diet sodas and “sugar-free” products.
Did you know that the FDA Commissioner who helped approve aspartame took a job with a promoter of aspartame within months? Arthur Hull Hayes Jr. left the FDA and landed a cushy job shortly after aspartame flooded the diet soda market.
What he never told the public was that “all the independent studies found harmful problems [with aspartame]. None of the ones sponsored by the maker found any problem.”
It turns out that aspartame comes with some serious health risks, but the health agencies still tell you that it’s “safe.”
Dr. Russell Blaylock explains that the independent studies, free from industry bias, found aspartame:
• increases brain tumors by about six-fold
• increases breast cancer and breast tumors
• increases lung tumors and other tumors
So, throw out the diet soda, the “sugar-free” gum, and products like Equal and NutraSweet.
Thanks for reading! All the information here was sourced from a groundbreaking docuseries produced by
Ivermectin outperforms chemo in breast cancer treatment, study finds
Research out of Mexico has uncovered another use for ivermectin than just getting rid of parasites and coronaviruses.
It turns out that ivermectin is also an effective remedy against cancer. Research dating back to 1996 shows a link between the two, with more recent research published in 2017 showing that ivermectin is an inhibitor of cancer stem cells.
While tumor growth is generally driven by so-called bulk tumor cells, there is another subpopulation of cells within cancer tumors that present a stem cell phenotype. As such, these cells are referred to in the scientific literature as “cancer stem-like cells” or CSCs.
What makes cancer stem-like cells such a threat is the fact that they have unlimited self-renew properties, meaning they just keep reproducing endlessly. This is how many severe cancers take over a person’s body and lay it waste, often very quickly depending on the type.
Back in 2009, researchers from MIT and Harvard found that salinomycin, another antiparasitic drug, helps to reduce breast cancer stem cells by more than 100-fold compared to the chemotherapy drug paclitaxel (Taxol). Salinomycin also inhibited the growth of breast tumors, the research team found.
Building upon this earlier research, scientists from Mexico City in the more recent study from 2017 looked for the molecule most resembling salinomycin. They probed 1,623 compounds, only to learn that the one responsible for destroying cancer cells is none other than ivermectin.
“Ivermectin preferentially inhibits the viability of cancer stem cell-enriched populations compared with the total cell population,” their research states. “The opposite pattern was observed with paclitaxel treatment.”
(Related: In order for ivermectin to work at its best, one must take the drug with high-fat foods for maximum absorption.)
Ivermectin decreases expression of “stemness genes” expressed in cancer stem cells
Another thing ivermectin does, according to the newer research, is prevent three different “stemness genes” from expressing themselves. These stemness genes are highly expressed in cancer stem cells, and by inhibiting their expression, ivermectin makes it a lot harder for cancer tumors to grow and spread.
In their conclusion, the Mexican scientists declared that, based on everything they looked at, ivermectin preferentially targets the stem cell population in MDA-MB-231 human breast cancer cells, which are what they studied.
“Ivermectin has been demonstrated to be safe, following treatment of millions of patients with onchocerciasis and other parasitic diseases, which makes it a strong candidate for further studies investigating its potential use as a repurposed drug for cancer therapy,” the study further concludes.
All in all, ivermectin was found to work significantly better – up to 100-fold and with no serious side effects – than chemotherapy drugs. The drug selectively targets the cancer stem cells that not only interfere with conventional cancer treatments but also drive metastasis and breast cancer recurrence.
“Bottom line: Every advanced breast cancer patient should get ivermectin to eliminate cancer stem cells and reduce the risks of treatment failure, metastases and recurrence,” tweeted Dr. William Makis, M.D., about the discovery.
“So why don’t they? I think we all know the answer.”
Keep in mind that mammograms only make the problem worse by smashing open the cancer lumps. This causes the parasites to get released and “go wild,” which in turn leads to serious cancer diagnoses.
“Ivermectin is proving to be an extraordinary drug with a wide range of potential benefits beyond its traditional uses,” someone wrote in response to Dr. Makis’ post.
“The research on its effectiveness against cancer stem cells, particularly when combined with other treatments like fenbendazole or menbendazole, is compelling. It’s remarkable how a drug that’s been around for decades continues to reveal its versatility and potential in treating serious conditions like cancer.”
Learn more about how to deal with cancer alternatively at Cancer.news.
JUST REVEALED: Apalachee High School Received Threatening Call Before Deadly ShootingNew information has come to light about Wednesday’s shooting at Apalachee High School in Winder, Georgia, revealing that the school had received a warning before the gunman began shooting. Despite reportedly receiving a phone call stating that the high school would be the first of five targets, seemingly nothing was done to prevent the violence. According to law enforcement sources, …READ THE FULL REPORT
WATCH: Fani Willis Shows Up at Daughter’s Arrest With Nathan Wade After Testifying Their Relationship Was OverFani Willis’ daughter, the Fulton County District Attorney currently facing significant challenges, was arrested in Georgia for driving with a suspended license. The Daily Mail reports that 25-year-old Kinaya Willis was pulled over on August 24 in Tyrone, Georgia, for using her cell phone while driving. During the stop, officers discovered that her license was suspended. Kinaya Willis told the …READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA/
Brazil/Elon Musk
END
BRAZIL
END
VENEZUELA/USA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1103 DOWN 0.0007
USA/ YEN 143.06 DOWN 0.352 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS JULY 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA END HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES NO 2 DISINTEGRATES//YEN CARRY TRADE FINISHED
GBP/USA 1.3167 DOWN .0029
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3499 DOWN .0002 (CDN DOLLAR UP 2 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 22.51 PTS OR 0.81%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 13.04 PTS OR 0.07%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.33%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 13.04 PTS OR 0.07 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.51 PTS OR 0.81%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.33%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 265.62 PTS OR 0.72%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2517.75
silver:$28.78
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 101.02 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0937 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.0881)
TURKISH LIRA: 33.99 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.855
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.681% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 3.982 DOWN 4 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.675 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2511.65
SILVER AT 11;00: 28.55
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 60,24 PTS OR .73%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 274.60 PTS OR 1.48%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 79.66 PTS OR 1.07%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 100.50 OR 0.89%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 393.41 OR 1.17
WTI Oil price 70.13 12EST/
Brent Oil: 73.40 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 90.32 ROUBLE DOWN 2 AND 07/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1705 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.9245 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 2.960 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.817
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1087 DOWN 0.0022 OR 22 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.3132 DOWN 0.0044 OR 44 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.8910 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.855
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 142.45 DOWN .965 YEN UP 97 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3559 UP 0.0058//CDN dollar DOWN 58 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 68.11
Brent OIL: 71.87
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 3.720
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS PTS to 4.027%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 9 PTS AT 3.665
CDN 10 YR RATE 2.997 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.831 DOWN 2
USA dollar index: 101.14 UP 7 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33,98 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 90.35 DOWN 2 AND 9/100 roubles
GOLD 2,494.00 3:30 PM
SILVER: 27.83 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 410.34 PTS OR 1.01%
NASDAQ down 509.02 PTS OR 2.09 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 22.06 up 2.66 PTS OR 10.85%
GLD: $230.63 DOW7 1.72 OR 0.77%
SLV/ $25.48 DOWN 0.55 OR 2.86%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Kamala Karnage As Market Goes Haywire
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Sep 06, 2024 – 04:06 PM
One month after the Aug 5 Kamala Karry Trade Krash, we got part 2…
… and boy was it an epic flush: everything – especially anything with a high beta or even a trace of momentum – imploded with a sheer violence that appeared even greater what took place on Aug 5. And unlike Aug 5, the puke was only at the beginning with stocks spiking from the first moment of trading, this time it was the other way around, with stocks pushing higher to start the day before falling apart.
It all started with the August payrolls: as described earlier, the number wasn’t terrible: at 142K, it missed the estimate of 165K but rebounded sharply from last month’s (downward revised) 89K…
… and the unemployment rate actually dropped…
… as the number of employed workers jumped by the most since March (even if the composition of the number was catastrophic, consisting entirely of part-time, illegal workers).
Yet, while on the surface the jobs number was strong enough to eliminate the odds of a 50bps rate cut, the market did not take it that way – perhaps as a result of the massive historical revisions – and odds of a 50bps cut in two weeks first spiked, before reversing… only to spike again after Fed gov Waller said he would “advocate” front-loading rate cuts if that is appropriate, wrong-footing markets again, and sending odds of a 50bps cut as high as 65%… before a tweet from the WSJ’s Fed leaker Nick Timiraos interpreted the Fed’s speech as much more hawkish than it appeared, saying that “Fed governor Chris Waller’s speech doesn’t explicitly say “25” or “50” but it leans into endorsing a 25 bps cut to start, explicitly reserving the option to go faster “as appropriate” if “new data” show more deterioration.” He also said that “Waller pats the Fed on the back for not overreacting to the banking crisis, the lower inflation prints of 2H 23, the higher prints of Q1 24. Then he says, “Based on the evidence I see, I do not believe the economy is in a recession or necessarily headed for one.” So after all that, we saw what may have been a rate expectation reversal for the ages, with odds of 2 cuts first jumping from 40% to 60% before reversing back to 40%, only to surge to 65% before finally plunging to 25%, all in the span of a few minutes!
This epic, frenzied activity meant, in which nobody had any idea what is going on, meant Trading in fed funds futures surged to a record Friday. According to Bloomberg, volumes in the second generic fed funds future, typically the most active, reached 900,000 as of 1pm ET, the highest for any contract since their inception in 1988. Trading volume in the October contract surpasses previous record from March 2023, when collapse of Silicon Valley Bank reverberated through financial markets!
And while we don’t know for a fact if that’s what happened, it seems fair to guess that these unprecedented, wild swings in what is the market’s most important pricing indicator, sparked a relentless liquidation across all assets, which hit – in no particular order – stocks…
… oil
… bitcoin
… USDJPY
… and even gold was not immune, and after briefly reaching for new all time highs in the aftermath of the payrolls scare, it then proceeded to slide to session lows.
In fact, the only asset class that showed some semblance of rationality was bonds, where yields first dumped, then spiked, then dumped again, only to close near session highs, perhaps realizing that the faster the Fed cuts, the faster it will spark another inflationary conflagration.
Putting today – and this week’s – rout in context, one can argue that it was even worse than the Aug 5 debacle, because while that was just one day of acute pain, by the end of that particular week, stocks had largely rebounded. This time, however, the pain is just getting started, and what started off as an ugly week, ended up much uglier with widespread liquidations…
… and even more remarkably, a non-stop attempt by the 0DTE crowd to kickstart an intraday reversal in the form of a record delta flow divergence from the S&P, ended up achieving absolutely nothing.
And how could it when everyone’s favorite high beta momentum stock, NVDA, resumed its plunge and just barely managed to remain above $100, and now down more 30% from its all time high hit all the way back in June…
… and not just NVDA, but the entire Mag 7 sector is now back to levels last seen just after the Aug 5 freakout…
… which may largely be due to charts like this one from Goldman, suggesting that the AI bubble has burst with a bang.
And while it is easy to speculate and assign a narrative to what happened based on prices, it is just as likely that today’s – and this week’s – price action is precisely what was expected to happen: as the following chart from Goldman makes clear, in presidential election years, stocks peak just before Labor day, before dumping all the way until the election, before blasting off higher once more. Well, you are here!
MORNING TRADING/non farm payrolls
a phony report as always
(zerohedge)
June Payrolls Miss But Unemployment Rate Declines, Pulling Back From “Sahm Recession” Trigger As Wages Unexpectedly Rise
Friday, Sep 06, 2024 – 08:40 AM
There was some good news and some bad news in today’s jobs report – first the bad news: the August payrolls number came in at 142K, a small miss to estimates of a 165K print, if a big jump from the downward revised July print of 89K. The good news, however, is that while the payrolls print missed, the unemployment rate actually dipped from that critical “Sahm’s Rule trigger” level of 4.3%, to 4.2%, in line with expectations. So bottom line: the number could be better, but it is certainly not bad enough to trigger a 50bps rate cut in two weeks.
Here are the details.
As noted above, in August, the US added 142K jobs…
… which was slightly below estimates of a 165K print, but hardly some crazy outlier as in previous months.
Then again, as has become the norm, both previous months were revised sharply lower, so once again expect the August print to suffer the same fate. Specifically, the BLS said that the payroll print for June was revised down by 61,000, from +179,000 to +118,000, and the change for July was revised down by 25,000, from +114,000 to +89,000. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 86,000 lower than previously reported It also means that 4 consecutive job prints have been revised lower, and 6 of the past 7.
Looking at the components, while most sectors tracked by the Establishment survey posted an increase (see more details below), the all-important manufacturing sector lost 24K job, the second worst month for the sector in 3 years!
But And while the Establishment survey was disappointing, the Household survey was – for once – rather strong, showing a 168K increase in Employed workers.
And since the number of unemployed workers declined modestly, from 7.163MM to 7.115MM, the all important unemployment rate also dropped from 4.3% – which as we noted last month was that critical Sahm Rule recession trigger level – to 4.2%, matching estimates, and a level which according to most means the Fed will only cut 25bps in two weeks (as opposed to 50bps). Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for Blacks dipped to 6.1%, Whites were unch at 3.8% and Hispanics rose to 5.5%.
Among the unemployed, the number of people on temporary layoff declined by 190,000 to 872,000 in August, mostly offsetting an increase in the prior month. The number of permanent job losers was essentially unchanged at 1.7 million in August.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was virtually unchanged at 1.5 million in August. The long-term unemployed accounted for 21.3 percent of all unemployed people.
The labor force participation rate remained at 62.7% in August and is little changed over the year. The employment-population ratio also was unchanged in August, at 60.0%, but is down by 0.4 percentage point over the year.
The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 5.6 million, changed little in August. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.4 million, was little changed in August. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, changed little at 367,000 in August
As for wages, which a few months ago is all anyone cared about, these actually printed hotter than expected, rising 0.4% MoM, double the 0.2% increase last month. Average hourly earnings also rose to 3.8% YoY, up from 3.6% and beating the estimate of 3.7%. Was that it for the decline in earnings?
Indeed, for those focused on the ugly side of the jobs report – if only to justify a 50 bps rate cut – Bloomberg’s Chris Anstey notes that “while many are focusing on the lower-than-expected payrolls figure, I’d note the direction of travel here for August isn’t down, it’s up”
Payroll growth accelerated in August.
Employment gains in the household survey also quickened.
The unemployment rate fell.
Wage gains accelerated.
Of course, much of this is purely optics, and as we will detail shortly, it was all thanks to a surge in part-time workers and illegal immigrants (more in a follow up post).
Taking a closer look at the actual jobs, the BLS reported that employment growth in August was in line with average job growth in recent months but was below the average monthly gain of 202,000 over the prior 12 months. In August, job gains occurred in construction and health care.
Construction employment rose by 34,000 in August, higher than the average monthly gain of 19,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, heavy and civil engineering construction added 14,000 jobs, and employment in nonresidential specialty trade contractors continued to trend up (+14,000). That said, expect a major drop here now that construction jobs openings cratering.
Health care added 31,000 jobs in August, about half the average monthly gain of 60,000 over the prior 12 months. In August, employment rose in ambulatory health care services (+24,000) and hospitals (+10,000).
In August, employment in social assistance continued its upward trend (+13,000) but at a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+21,000). Individual and family services added 18,000 jobs over the month.
Employment in manufacturing edged down in August (-24,000), reflecting a decline of 25,000 in durable goods industries. Manufacturing employment has shown little net change over the year.
Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; other services; and government.
And visually:
So what does that mean for the Fed’s upcoming rate cut? While the payrolls number was disappointing, it was nowhere near panic-inducing, which is what a 50bps rate cut would signal. As CIBC economist Ali Jaffery notes, it’s going to be up to the Fed speakers today to really set expectations when it comes to 25 or 50: “There were many mixed elements in today’s report that leaves the Fed call up in the air, and upcoming Fed speakers insights will provide some clues into how they are reading today’s report.”
But perhaps the biggest clue about the upcoming rate cut came not from the jobs report, but from the Fed whisperer Nick Timiraos who looked at the John Williams speech delivered this morning, and said that his “prepared remarks don’t make any effort to lay the groundwork for a 50 basis point cut.”
John Williams’s prepared remarks don’t make any effort to lay the groundwork for a 50 basis point cut.
Williams says “policy can be moved to a more neutral setting over time.”
He’s doing Q&A now, and if the person asking questions decides to ask about monetary policy instead… https://t.co/Q7zc6vhAU1— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) September 6, 2024
In short, safe to say it will be 25bps.
END
THE REAL STORY!
Great Replacement Job Shock: 1.3 Million Native-Born Americans Just Lost Their Jobs, Replaced By 635,000 Immigrants
Friday, Sep 06, 2024 – 12:27 PM
At the start of the year, many months after we first pointed out that the biggest untold story of the US labor market was the “great replacement” of native born workers with foreign-born workers (most of whom we subsequently learned were illegal aliens), we asked how is it, that the ongoing replacement (because that’s what it is) of US workers is “not the biggest political talking point right now” considering that “since October 2019, native-born US workers have lost 1.4 million jobs; over the same period foreign-born workers have gained 3 million jobs”
X.com/zerohedge/status/1746929670308671524
Nine months later, we are delighted to see that our relentless efforts to bring attention to this critical topic finally worked, and the continued replacement of native-born workers with immigrants and illegal aliens was finally the biggest political and media talking point, as demonstrated by such articles as “How Immigration Remade the U.S. Labor Force“ by the WSJ and “Without Immigrants, US Working-Age Population Would Shrink“ from Bloomberg, both of which are an extension of the latest and greatest narrative, first spawned by Fed chair Powell, and then picked up by Goldman, which came down to the following: you can have (record) illegal immigration, or you can have even more (breakneck) inflation. So don’t be angry, and just accept the roving gangs of Venezuelan murderers in your neighborhood, if you know what’s good for you and if you want to keep prices low (the same prices which are only high because the government decided to inject $20 trillion in fiscal stimmies in the past 4 years).
.com/zerohedge/status/1787171588539900192
Which brings us to today’s jobs report… where the native vs foreign-born debate just exploded!
As we discussed earlier, superficially the August payrolls report was a mixed bag. On one hand, it was disappointing in that the payrolls print came in softer than expected, but was a big bounce from sharply downward revised June and July prints. On the other hand, the unemployment rate did drop from the Sahm Rule’s recession trigger level of 4.3% to 4.2%, and effectively eliminated the clear cut case for a 50bps rate cut, especially since the Household survey was not only far stronger than the Establishment survey, but indicated the biggest increase in employment since March.
That, at least, was the quantitative view. And while that was mixed, there was no confusion in the picture painted by the qualtitative aspect of the jobs report. Here, everything was a disaster.
Starting at the top, while the number of employed workers did rise by 168K, looking closer at the composition of this increase is disastrous: that’s because it consisted of an increase of 527K part-time jobs, offset by a 438K plunge in full-time jobs.
This means that since last June, the US has added just over 2 million part-time jobs, and lost over 1.5 million full-time jobs.
Needless to say, part-time jobs pay far less, don’t offer benefits, and generally lead to a suboptimal outcomes for the labor market, one of which is the need to get more than one job, and sure enough, the number of multiple jobholders – or people who for whatever reason have more than one job – jumped above 8.5 million, back to all time highs.
And while the quality of job gains in the past year has clearly been catastrophic – a necessary condition to give the impression that headline, or quantiative, job growth was strong – there was a very clear reason for that, and it goes back to what we have been pounding the table on in the past: the reason is the continued replacement of native-born workers with immigrants (some legal but mostly illegal). And as the following chart shows, it is anything but a theory: it is cold hard fact.
Presenting exhibit A: the number of native-born vs foreign-born workers in August.
In an absolute shocker of a data point, in the past month, the US added 635K foreign-born workers, while losing 1.325 million native-born workers. This was tied for the biggest one-month drop in native-born workers since the covid crash!
But it’s not just the past month, or two, or three… As regular readers know, the reason why suddenly we are bombarded with media pitches for why illegal immigrants are actually great for you, is that the US has not created a single job for native-born workers since July 2018! And in that interval, it has created 4.7 million jobs for immigrants, both legal and illegal.
Finally for those wondering when the Great Job Replacement Fact (again, not theory) kicked in, the following chart showing the historical divergence between native and non-native born workers will make it clear: the gap first emerged at the start of the Biden administration and has exploded to a record size today!
Finally, for those who would push back that these are mostly legal immigrants, here is what Standard Chartered strategist Steven Englander wrote at the start of June to refute that claims and prove that most of these immigrant workers are virtually all illegal: echoing what we have said for the past two years, Englander wrote that immigration, particularly illegal immigration, “is a political flashpoint that has also become an important factor in assessing economic performance. Detailed data from US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) suggest that half of non-farm payroll (NFP) growth to date for FY24 (started 1 October 2023) has been from undocumented immigrants who have received an Employment Authorization Document (EAD)” (he defines undocumented immigrants as those who entered the US through non-traditional immigration pathways, such as asylum seekers, parolees, and refugees, i.e. illegals).
“The ability to track EAD issuance to undocumented workers is an advantage in estimating how much they have contributed to employment growth. NFP counts workers with an EAD just like any other. Using that data, it is easy to estimate that undocumented workers have added 109k jobs per month to NFP out of the average 231k increase so far in FY24.”
Which is a big problem because as the BLS now admitted with its downward payrolls revision two weeks ago, the monthly increase in jobs in the past years was not 230K as it had indicated previously, but rather 150K when one removes the 818K jobs that were never there in the past year to begin with.
So if the true pace of job creation in the past year was 150K, and another 109K jobs per month are illegal aliens, that leaves just about 40K jobs for everyone else, i.e., law abiding Americans.
It also means that, great worker replacement scandal aside, the labor market in the US has – for the past year – been an absolute catastrophe and harbinger of economic disaster.
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Complete lack of demand causes this firm to file for bankruptcy
(EpochTimes)
Solar Firm Lumio Files For Bankruptcy After ‘Sharp Decline In Demand’
Solar energy firm Lumio filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after getting caught up in a “severe liquidity crisis” following a fall in market demand.
The Utah-based company made the filing at the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware to “complete a value-maximizing sale process and strengthen its financial position,” according to a Sept. 3 statement. The company has already entered into an agreement with an affiliate of White Oak Global Advisors, which has agreed to buy “substantially all” of the firm’s assets for $100 million in a credit bid. In the case the bid is successful, White Oak also intends to provide “significant equity ownership” to Lumio employees.
“The company anticipates completing the sale process in less than two months. During the sale process, the company’s operations will continue as usual without interruption,” the statement said.
In a court declaration, Jeffrey T. Varsalone, a Lumio board member, said the company has faced a “severe liquidity crisis” over the past year, which he attributed to “a sharp decline in demand in the solar market and various macroeconomic headwinds.”
Varsalone blamed increases in inflation and a subsequent jump in interest rates to have resulted in “reduced demand across the entire solar power industry,” thus negatively affecting Lumio’s financial performance.
The reduced demand and revenue eventually led to the deterioration of Lumio’s liquidity position, the board member said.
White Oak has provided Lumio with $8 million, which is expected to support the company’s operations as the sales process proceeds.
“Today’s announcement marks an important step forward for Lumio and a continuation of our deliberate efforts to position the business with the strategic, operational, and financial foundation to operate at the forefront of the solar industry as it enters its recovery phase,” Lumio CEO Andrew Walton said.
“With enhanced financial stability and the support of new ownership following the completion of our sale process, we will be well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities.”
Solar Bankruptcies
Multiple solar companies have gone bankrupt over the past year. Last month, San Jose-based SunPower, for example, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, with $1.1 billion in debts.
The company had announced in April that it would lay off around 1,000 employees to transition to a “low fixed-cost model.” The firm said the solar market had been “slower to recover” than it initially expected.
In February, solar installer Sunworks and three subsidiaries ceased operations and filed for bankruptcy.
According to a post by Solar Insure, a provider of solar-monitoring and warranty-protection services, there have been more than 100 solar bankruptcies in 2024 alone, a number “unseen before” in its “almost 20 years in the solar sector,” the company said.
The firm blamed factors such as high interest rates and borrowing challenges faced by solar companies for contributing to the bankruptcies. High rates make borrowing expensive, discouraging customers from installing solar devices. The rise in rates boosted the cost of capital for businesses, affecting their financial situation.
“Smaller contractors, in particular, struggled to absorb these increased costs, lacking the financial buffers of larger firms. This disparity led to a disproportionate impact on these smaller players, many of whom were forced to close their doors,” the post said.
During an interview with The Epoch Times earlier this year, Solar Energy Industries Association spokesman Morgan Lyons said they “expect installations to fall off sharply in 2024.”
A new rule implemented in April 2023 by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) substantially reduced the amount of money customers who installed solar energy can make by selling excess energy back to the grid.
“All over California we are seeing the grim reality of how the CPUC’s cuts to solar are taking livelihoods away from thousands of families,” Bernadette Del Chiaro, executive director of the California Solar and Storage Association, said in a statement in December 2023.
Jill McLaughlin contributed to this report.
end
This is awful: Venezuelan gangs penetrating uSA top oil fields
(zerohedge)
It’s Spreading: America’s Top Oil Field Terrorized By Armed Venezuelan Gangs
Thursday, Sep 05, 2024 – 04:55 PM
It’s only going to get worse from here, as the Biden-Harris administration’s disastrous open border policies have now come to a ‘neighborhood near you’ (for some of you). In the past week, we saw armed Venezuelan prison gang Tren de Araguamembers terrorize the northern Denver suburb of Aurora and other sanctuary cities run by far-left Democrats. New concerns out Thursday afternoon indicate critical infrastructure is now under threat from migrant cartel members.
According to Libs of TikTok, a Texas-based oil/gas company issued a memo to employees informing them that police and the FBI have warned armed Cuba and Venezuela migrant gangs are committing thefts in the Permian Basin (America’s highest producing oil field).
Here’s the memo:
Industry peers and law enforcement in West Texas (WTX) are aware of a recent increase in organized criminal activity inclusive of violent crimes, gang activity and oil field thefts in and around WTX operational areas. Specifically, regional law enforcement and the FBI advised that gang members emanating from Cuba and Venezuela are organizing and working in concert to commit thefts within the Permian Basin. These individuals and groups are armed, violent in nature and will not hesitate to use force.
Crimes associated with these groups include the theft of oil, diesel fuel, copper wire, and catalyst elements. Recent incidents have also included two assaults by water haulers who were attempting to steal oil from WTX oilfield sites. After the thieves were observed by witnesses who drove up to investigate, the thieves attempted to use their vehicles to run the witnesses off the road. In another incident, a thief, acting as a spotter and following a water hauler who had stolen oil, also attempted to run a witness off the road. There have been numerous reports of second vehicles acting as spotters for water haulers committing oil thefts.
An industry peer provided the below snapshot of a video surveillance of an armed thief checking out an area before stealing diesel from the location.
EXCLUSIVE: Texas-based oil company issued a memo to employees warning them about security concerns from violent migrant gangs.
The gangs are allegedly attacking oil workers and attempting to steal oil, fuel, and copper from oil fields in Texas. pic.twitter.com/LeTDz2USya
We highlighted earlier this week that law-abiding Americans must be made well aware of the cities, counties, and states that have laws, ordinances, and policies that obstruct immigration enforcement and shield illegal alien criminals from US Immigration and Customs Enforcement. This is because these areas are increasingly becoming dangerous, with migrant criminals running amok. Aurora is a prime example.
It will not matter who wins the election. The flood of illegals have a purpose in the overall plan that has been unfolding. Chaos as far and wide as possible. Massive spread across the nation!https://t.co/qFhElt4NtW
Armed illegal alien gangs are now posing a threat to critical energy infrastructure in the Permian Basin. The nation is sleepwalking into a disaster.
Why isn’t this considered a national security threat by the current administration? Of course it’s because they caused it – plus, it’s an election year.
end
Buffet is getting out of
Warren Buffett’s BofA ‘Dump-A-Thon’ Nears $7 Billion As Questions Swirl As To Why
Friday, Sep 06, 2024 – 09:10 AM
94-year-old Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway continued offloading Bank of America shares this week. Since Buffett started dumping BofA stock in mid-July, total sales have now topped nearly $7 billion.
In the latest round of transactions, disclosed in a regulatory filing Thursday, his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. liquidated $760 million of the stock since Tuesday. Still, Berkshire remains Bank of America’s top shareholder, with a roughly 11% stake valued at $34.7 billion, based on the latest closing price.
If Berkshire keeps selling, its stake in the second-largest US bank could soon slide below the 10% regulatory threshold that requires his conglomerate to disclose transactions within a few days. Once he controls less than that, Buffett may wait weeks to reveal transactions — typically offering snapshots after every quarter.
Berkshire Hathaway remains BofA’s number one shareholder, with an 11% stake valued at $34.7 billion.
Buffett and/or Berkshire Hathaway have not explained the reason for the abrupt selling.
As we’ve previously noted, Buffett could be dumping for several reasons, if that’s due to looming recession threats and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate-cutting cycle, which could begin in just a few weeks. Or perhaps the 94-year-old billionaire has increased cash reserves to record levels because of elevated stock valuations amid the artificial intelligence bubble.
Whatever keeps Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway up at night has intrigued institutional desks, FinTwit X, and financial media outlets. Some believe this could be a critical market signal.
Besides the mounting macro and political risks, we asked a week ago if the selling stems from the risk that a US regulatory probe into anti-money laundering surrounding fentanyl cash laundering at Toronto-Dominion Bank could expand to other banks.
In a conversation with Sam Cooper, an investigative journalist behind the Substack “The Bureau,” andDavid Asher, a former senior investigator for the State Department, Asher revealed, “And most of what we’re seeing is coming from this TD Bank case, and there’s a lot more. We’ll see which one of the big four US banks gets named next.”
Whatever the reason for the selling, Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway traders are undoubtedly concerned about something.
end
USSteel rises as Cleveland Cliffs interested if the Nippon deal fails
(zerohedge)
US Steel Rises As Cleveland-Cliffs CEO Reaffirms Interest Amid Reports Biden Prepares To Nuke Nippon-US Steel Deal
Friday, Sep 06, 2024 – 09:45 AM
Cleveland-Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves appeared on CNBC Thursday. He stated that Japan’s Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion deal for US Steel had already fallen apart and reiterated that his Ohio-based steel company was the only viable buyer. This follows reports that President Biden is preparing to block the Nippon-US Steel merger.
CNBC’s Morgan Brennan asked Goncalves if Cleveland-Cliffs would still entertain purchasing US Steel if the Nippon-US Steel deal falls apart. He responded, “This deal has already fallen …” But stopped short.
Goncalves continued:
“So, it was the most predictable outcome that I could ever have seen in our steel business. How come a company, a foreigner, that has been a perpetrator of numerous trade cases and unfair trade practices in the United States, one of the main ones responsible for the decimation of the steel industry in the United States and union jobs, believes that they can come here and scoop assets from one of our companies and take care of their own businesses without any regard to our industry, our national security, and our supply chains?
‘So, I’m glad that finally you are seeing the end — the light at the end of the tunnel.”
CNBC highlighted on X that in a December interview, Goncalves predicted Nippon Steel’s bid would collapse, leaving Cleveland-Cliffs as the only viable bidder for US Steel.
x
Goncalves wrote in a statement published on Cleveland-Cliffs’ website that he’s working with JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo to revive a deal to acquire US Steel.
It’s worth noting that Nippon Steel outbid Cleveland-Cliffs with a $55 per share offer, compared to Cleveland-Cliffs’ $35 per share for US Steel.
Goncalves applauded media reports that suggest the Biden administration is preparing to block the foreign takeover of US Steel officially:
“We commend President Biden and the US government for its reported decision to block foreign ownership of US Steel by Japan’s Nippon Steel. The American steel industry plays a crucial role in safeguarding our national security. President Biden’s courageous move affirms our view that our industry is best served by American companies that are committed to the long-term prosperity of domestic manufacturing, supported by good paying union jobs, under American ownership.”
“After decades of unfair trade practices causing harm to American steel companies and union jobs, it is no surprise to us that the United Steelworkers union (USW) adamantly opposes any transaction involving Nippon Steel, a company with an extensive track-record of injurious trade practices. The last-minute threats by US Steel to shut down integrated steelmaking production, fire union workers, and move their headquarters from Pittsburgh if their deal does not close, is just a pathetic blackmail attempt on the United States government and the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. By taking immediate action, our government is showing that this type of shameless behavior will never be tolerated.”
“With the continued exclusive and unwavering support of the United Steelworkers union, and with ample financing support available from our bank group led by J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo, Cleveland-Cliffs stands ready to immediately acquire and invest in any and all union-represented assets that US Steel shuts down, protecting union jobs and investing in the future livelihoods and communities in which the facilities operate.”
In markets, shares of US Steel are up 3% after plunging 25% on Wednesday due to media reports suggesting Biden is preparing to block the deal.
Bloomberg quoted Wolfe Research analyst Timna Tanners as saying, “For now, steel prices are pretty weak and I don’t think that Cliffs will have the wherewithal to be doing that kind of transaction anytime soon, at least easily.”
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
SWAMP STORIES
Harris honeymoon is over
‘Fact Of Life’ – Harris Disinfo Campaign Against Vance Peddles Deleted AP Propaganda
Friday, Sep 06, 2024 – 05:45 AM
The Harris honeymoon must be over…
As even CNN admits that things are not as rosy as the manufactured euphoria around Kamala’s ‘second coming’ would suggest, the Harris campaign has resorted to the old Democratic Party dirty tricks playbook – disinformation.
This mini-campaign began – like always – with mainstream media’s assistance. In this case, The Associated Press drops a story that insinuates (callous, evil, gun-toting – our words, not theirs) Trump running-mate JD Vance sees school shootings as a “fact of life”.
Wow, that sounds callous!! Perfect.
Except… the context is completely (and clearly intentionally) removed. Thankfully, in America (as opposed to Brazil), we still have X and its liberty-loving community-noters who swiftly destroyed AP’s narrative…
Vance’s full comment was as follows:
“I don’t like that this is a fact of life.”
Sounds sensible – who would ‘like’ that? Further, Vance pushed for moire security:
“But if you are a psycho and you want to make headlines, you realize that our schools are soft targets. And we have got to bolster security at our schools.
We’ve got to bolster security, so if a psycho wants to walk through the front door and kill a bunch of children, they’re not able.”
Rational, common-sense strategy to counter the ‘psychos’ in society.
After the ‘Community Note’, AP then deleted the post on X, and added ‘context’…
But that didn’t matter to the Harris campaign who jumped on the fake news bandwagon, issuing a statement decrying the heartless Vance’s out-of-context statement, and at the same time somehow claiming that a vote for Harris is a vote to keep your children safe from crime (quick question – why didn’t she ‘keep children safe from crime’ for the last four years?)
Watch Vance’s full comments here (and decide for yourself)…
Perhaps AP should be rebranded – Always Propaganda?
KING REPORT
The King Report September 6, 2024 Issue 7321
Independent View of the News
US Economic Data Released on ThursdayInitial Jobless Claims 227k from 231k, 230k expected; prior 111k revised from 122kContinuing Claims 1.838m, 1.867m expected, prior 1.86m revised from 1.868mAug ADP Employment Changed 99k (lowest since 1/21), 145k consensusAug Challenger Job Cuts 1.0% y/y, 9.2% priorQ2 Nonfarm Productivity 2.5% as expected, 2.3% priorQ2 Unit Labor Costs 0.4%, 0.8% expected, 0.9% priorAug ISM Services Index 51.5, 51.4 consensus and priorAug ISM Composite PMI 54.6, 54 expected, 54.1 priorAug ISM Services Prices Paid 57.3, 56 expected, 57 priorAug ISM Services Employment 50.2, 50.5 expected, 51.1 priorAug ISM Services New Orders 53 (highest since May), 51.9 expected, 52.4 priorAug S&P Global US Services PMI 55.7, 55.1 expected, 55.2 priorAug S&P Global US Composite PMI 54.6, 54.0 expected, 54.1 prior ADP Employment Report: The labor market continued to cool in August. Job creation among private employers slowed for the fifth straight month…wage growth was stable… https://adpemploymentreport.com/
Defensive asset allocation appeared early Friday; but USUs struggled to rally. With the DJIA and DJTA down over 300 points at the European close, USUs were only +3/32 (on service PMI strength/inflation).
The NY Fang+ Index was +2.52% at 10:26 ET on Tesla’s 47.1% surge and Amazon’s 3.8% jump.
Tesla Set to Launch Driver-Assist System in China, Europe in ’25 – BBG 2:18 ET Thursday
BBG: Tesla is said to be planning to unveil its highly anticipated robotaxi at an event at Warner Bros. Discovery’s California movie studio on Oct. 10… Amazon is also contributing, climbing as much as 3.8%, as Bloomber Intelligence notes “consumer sentiment was up in August and drove last-minute back-to-school shopping.”… Apple climbed as much as 2.1%; earlier BofA said the company’s upcoming iPhone event could be a positive catalyst…
Yesterday, ESUs vacillated between modest gains and losses from the Nikkei opening until they surged after the NYSE opening. ESUs hit a daily high of 5557.25 at 10:27 ET. They then tanked to a daily low of 5490.00 at 12:15 ET. For the 2nd straight session, ESUs had an ‘Empire State Building’ pattern.
A Noon Balloon took ESUs to 5512.25 at 12:57 ET. After a retrenchment to 5496.50 at 13:30 ET, the afternoon rally commenced. ESUs rallied to 5531.25 at 14:51 ET; but they sank to 5500.75 at 15:15 ET. The late manipulation pushed ESUs to 5522.25 at 15:34 ET. Sellers returned; ESUs fell to 5500.00 at 15:51 ET. ESUs rallied to 5515.25 at 16:00 ET. Someone wanted to keep ESUs above 5500.
Thursday was another session in which stocks sank in early NYSE trading and rallied in the afternoon.
Trump’s Remarks at The Economic Club of New York (delivered at midday on Thursday)“We have an economic disaster on our hands – an economy in crisis – a failing nation!”DJT emphasized the inflation of necessities.To end the inflation crisis, must unleash US energy production and lower energy costs.8.4 million Americans are working second jobs, the highest in over 30 years.DJT highlighted the decline in real income for black and Hispanic Americans.“Kamala Harris is the first major party nominee who fundamentally rejects freedom and embraces Marxism, communism, and fascism.”“Communism is the past. Freedom is the future. And it is time to send ‘Comrade’ Kamala Harris back home to California, where crime is rampant, and fleeing is the number one occupation.”I will launch a historic campaign to liberate our economy from crippling regulation. In my first term, I pledged to cut 2 old regulations for every one new regulation—and we did much better than that. Yet over the past 4 years, Kamala has added $6,300 dollars a year in regulatory costs onto the backs of every American family.To stop this onslaught and lower prices, I am pledging today that in my second term, we will eliminate a minimum of TEN old regulations for every one new regulation.“Nearly two thirds of the jobs created under the Harris-Biden administration were bounce-back — jobs that I handed them from before the pandemic.”“At the suggestion of Elon Musk… I will create a Government Efficiency Commission tasked with conducting a complete financial and performance audit of the entire government and making recommendations for drastic reforms… And Elon… has agreed to head that task force…”“We will ensure that the United States has a giant steel industry, an aluminum industry, a manufacturing base, and a defense industrial base… Call it what you want. Some might say it’s economic nationalism. I call it common sense. I call it America First. This is the policy that built this country, and this is the policy that will save this country.”Trump called for a 15% corporate tax rate for companies that make their products in the US. After the close, Biden touted his his inflation-generating Inflation Reduction Act and admitted it was a really a climate change law – and it should have been named that! Joe threw Kamala under the bus!
@themarketswork: The Inflation Reduction Act had nothing to do with inflation. Mildly shocked that Biden admitted it. “The most significant climate change law ever. And by the way, it is a $369 billion dollar bill. It’s called uh, we should have named it what it was.” https://x.com/themarketswork/status/1831787648329134339
Joe claimed he produced “one of the most extraordinary periods of progress in American history.”
Biden slams PARENTS for letting kids get ahold of guns after Georgia school shooting… and mixes up North and South Korea during rural Wisconsin triphttps://trib.al/yW1dkbh
Positive aspects of previous session USUs rallied moderately after the European close Oil and gasoline declined sharply. Tesla and Amazon led a Mag 7 rally.
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks declined sharply; USUs went negative after Aug service PMIs showed strength & inflation
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What is the market’s disposition on the Harris-Trump contest?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5510.08 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5546.30; 5480.54
@nypost: Today’s cover: Meta board rules anti-Israel slogan ‘From the river to the sea’ is not hate speech — despite Hamas using it to call for Jewish state’s destructionhttps://t.co/F1dxfhfR3U
@elonmusk: I have never been materially active in politics before, but… I think civilization as we know it is on the line.If we want to preserve freedom and a meritocracy in America, then Trump must win.
Hostage killings and new demands cast doubt in White House that Hamas wants a deal Biden and his top advisers were shocked after Hamas killed six hostages, among them U.S. citizen Hersh Goldberg-Polin, and have started to rethink the way forward in the negotiations over the deal… At the same time, Hamas’ new demand to increase the number of Palestinian prisoners released as part of the deal raised even more concerns and questions among U.S. negotiators about whether an agreement is possible… (Team Obama finally realizes that Hamas/Iran are playing them!) https://www.axios.com/2024/09/05/gaza-israel-us-hostages-ceasefire-deal-prisoners
@rich_goldberg: The White House might be pivoting on Hamas tonight by implicitly accepting enormous blame for committing 11 months to a naive, outrageous & ultimately failed strategy that empowered Hamas while weakening Israel. The question: What are they prepared to do to Hamas & its sponsors?
Hunter Biden shockingly pled guilty to 3 felony and 6 misdemeanor tax charges. The judge accepted the plea. Sentencing is slated for Dec. 16, which is after the election but before Joe leaves office.
@StuLoren: This interactive map of distressed commercial properties in downtown Chicago… is very informative. Major implications for the local tax base and rising burden on residential. City needs to focus on incentivizing growth and investment. https://x.com/StuLoren/status/1831728853535903957
Fed Balance Sheet: -$10.671B with US Treasuries -$9.904B; Reserves at Fed: -$70.564B
After the close, Broadcom (AVGO) forecast soft Q4 sales: $14B; $14.1B consensus. AVGO sank 7.5%.
Today – Bulls and most of The Street want a weak August NFP that would guarantee the expected 25bp rate cut at the September 18 FOMC and open the door for a 50bp cut. However, Team Obama-Harris desperately needs a good August NFP. For the past year, the BLS has greatly overstated NFP.
Stocks sank and bonds barely rallied during morning NYSE trading on Thursday. Rumors circulated that the August NFP would be stronger than expected – for political reasons. Traders will play for the Friday Rally; but there have been organic sellers in the market.
On Thursday, the S&P 500 blew through its Wednesday low 5503.66 and the 5500 support. The late manipulation pushed the S&P 500 Index 3 handles above 5500 at the close. This is obviously a Maginot Line for bulls. NQUs are -66.00 (on AVGO), ESUs are -4.00 and USUs are -1/32 at 20:10 ET.
Expected Economic Data: Aug NFP 165k (Whisper # 155k), Mfg. -2k, Rate 4.2%, Wages 0.3% m/m & 3.7% y/y, Workweek 34.3, Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7%; NY Fed Pres Williams 8:45 ET, Fed Governor Waller 11:00 ET on Economic Outlook
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5507; 100-day MA: 5375; 150-day MA: 5287; 200-day MA: 5143 DJIA 50-day MA: 40,176; 100-day MA: 39,482; 150-day MA: 39,285; 200-day MA: 38,714 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5503.41 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4983.62 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5274.15 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5662.00 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5547.82 triggers a buy signal
DJT advisor @TimMurtaugh: This is an unbelievably bad answer. Harris campaign: We don’t want to talk about what she’s been doing in the Biden-Harris administration for 3.5 years. This is precisely her problem. She can’t be who she really is. She is a San Francisco liberal pretending not to be one.
WaPo’s @dylanewells: Walz, in an interview with @WCMUNews today, was asked how a Harris-Walz administration would handle the Israel-Hamas war and if it would break with the Biden administration in any way. Here’s his full answer: “…put the leverage on to move to… a two-state solution… We need the Netanyahu government to start moving in that direction… two state is the only way forward.” https://x.com/dylanewells/status/1831815864464896158
@stclairashley: See how they (AP) use Trump as the cover photo for this Russia story to imply influencers were paid to support him?1) Most weren’t Trump supporters. 2) The influencers are VICTIMS according to the DOJ and 3) The ringleader receiving orders from the Russians was actively anti-Trump.https://x.com/stclairashley/status/1831585083175612704
@stclairashley: A DOJ indictment suggests that Lauren Chen is an alleged Russian agent who is said to have accepted upwards of $10 million to start Tenet Media & push divisive political rhetoric / Russian propaganda in the US. Chen has encouraged Republicans to withhold their vote for Trumpfor not being “conservative” and “pro-life” enough, she has advocated against the 19th Amendment, and said Hamas rioters on college campuses were being arrested for “free speech.” She has stated that Trump has abandoned “Christian conservatives” for the “Enriques and Jamals” (seriously)… https://x.com/stclairashley/status/1831452534323749326
@DavidSacks: Even by the standards of Russia, Russia, Russia hoaxes, the Tenet Media/Lauren Chen case makes no sense: Chen was riling up pro-lifers *against* Trump. @Cernovich, Steve Deace, and others had been calling out these “purists” for weeks, and now they’re vindicated… So, was Putin trying to get Biden/Harris reelected? That’s effectively the claim…
@captivedreamer7: Looks like Biden’s DOJ wanted a Russiagate scalp they could pin on Trump right before the election, but it turns out they were too stupid to realize Lauren Chen was an anti-Trumper
@CollinRugg: Vladimir Putin says he supports Kamala Harris for president, says he finds her laugh “fascinating.” The comments come after the DOJ accused Russia of funding Tenet who then paid conservative influencers for videos.At the moment, it’s unclear what exactly Russia’s goal was by paying these influencers who didn’t even realize they were being paid by Russia. “If we can name a favorite candidate. It used to be Joe Biden, but now he’s not participating a in the election campaign, and he recommended all his allies to support Mrs. Harris. So that is what we are going to do.” “Her laugh is so fascinating.” https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1831676844422443236
NY Post Editorial Board: Biden goes all-in on Russiagate 2.0 while ignoring China’s creeping attacks on democracy – Another adversarial power has been hacking US infrastructure, flagrantly running operations on US soil, and spying on politicians and civilians alike — and it’s China, not Russia… Bad enough that Democrats are laser-focused on the Kremlin’s wrongdoing in a partisan drive to keep the Trump-Russia myth alive; far worse that they largely ignore China insidious creep into American life.https://nypost.com/2024/09/04/opinion/president-joe-biden-sanctions-russia-while-ignoring-china/
Ex-US Sec of State Mike Pompeo notes that Biden-Harris ignores China’s influence buying in the USA.
White House put blinders on as China infiltrated our government This commitment to keeping America safe from CCP infiltration has been woefully neglected by the Biden-Harris administration…As for Kamala Harris, you can count on one hand the number of times she has mentioned the Chinese Communist Party on the campaign trail… She won’t dare say a bad word about China… https://nypost.com/2024/09/04/opinion/white-house-put-blinders-on-as-china-infiltrated-our-government/
Top spokesman for Manhattan US Attorney’s office caught on secret recording blasting DA Bragg over Trump prosecution: ‘The case is nonsense.’… https://trib.al/gx1sjkC
@JoelWBerry: People in the Bush, Romney, and McCain circles supporting Kamala just shows how long our side has been swindled and abused by fake conservatives whose only loyalty is to globalism, corporatism, and the war machine.
Feds raid home of NYPD Commish Edward Caban, other close Adams allieshttps://trib.al/VoRcsAx
@Breaking911: FBI says alleged Apalachee school shooter Colt Gray was investigated last year for making online threats to commit a school shooting. “In Mary 2023, the FBI’s National Threat Operation Center received several anonymous tips of online threats to commit a school shooting… The Jackson County Sheriff’s Office located a possible suspect…There was no probable cause for arrest.” https://x.com/Breaking911/status/1831486286105883000 @seanmdav: If he had been spotted waving a flag at the Capitol, the FBI would’ve raided his home at dawn and thrown him in prison for a decade. Instead, he threatened to shoot up a school so they just let him be. Make it make sense.
Accused Ga. school shooter Colt Gray, 14, received gun used in massacre as Christmas gift from dad — months after online threats probe: sourceshttps://trib.al/qLnR5zZ
Reports say the Father of Georgia school shooter, Colin Gray, has been arrested and charged with 4 counts of involuntary manslaughter, 2 counts of 2nd degree murder, and 8 counts of cruelty to children, reportedly because he was abusive to his son, the alleged shooter.
@visegrad24: Germany will start counting highway repairs as defence spending to meet the NATO 2% spending target. Süddeutsche Zeitung reports that the German government argues that bridge repairs should be included in defence spending as its public roads are used to transport tanks and other military vehicles…https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1831476473154134213
@CBSNews: Amid a political crisis triggered by a widely contested presidential election and accusations of brutal repression against his political opponents, Venezuela’s authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro has announced Christmas in the country will now start in October. https://t.co/LxWdC5WGpy
“Human beings are born with different capacities. If they are free, they are not equal. And if they are equal, they are not free.” — Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
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