DEC 16/BITCOIN BREAKS $106,000//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $2.800 TO $2653.25//SILVER IS SFLAT AT $30.58//PLATINUM IS UP $13.75 TO $939.25 WHILE PALLADIUM IS DOWN $5.10 TO $945.05//GOLD COMMENTARY TODAY FROM PETER SCHIFF AND ALASDAIR MACLEOD//ALSO THE PODCAST FROM ANDREW MAGUIRE 203 IS A MUST VIEW//ONE WEEK AFTER FRANCE’S GOVERNMENT FALLS, TODAY IT IS THE GERMAN GOVERNMENT THAT FALLS//ISRAEL VS SYRIA/HAMAS HEZBOLLAH UPDATES//CANADA’S FREELAND LEAVES TRUDEAU CABINET// USA PMF PMI FALTERS BUT SERVICE PMI’S GAIN//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
072 H GOLDMAN 88 092 C DEUTSCHE BANK 1 152 C DORMAN TRADING 1 190 H BMO CAPITAL 274 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 295 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 52 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 41 661 C JP MORGAN 126 117 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 84 34 690 C ABN AMRO 9 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 10 1 905 C ADM 4
TOTAL: 569 569
JPMorgan stopped 126/569
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2024. CONTRACT: 569 NOTICES FOR 56,900 OZ 1.7698 TONNES
total notices so far: 22,159 contracts for 2,215,900 Oz (68.923 tonnes)
FOR DEC
SILVER NOTICES: 13 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.065 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 8513 for 42.565 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.70 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.00 AT THE SLV
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.84 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV/.
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 458.052 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI SHOCKINGLY FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED2045CONTRACTS TO 149,618 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS OF $0,46 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS LOSS OF 1545 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WWITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE//FRIDAY’S TRADING.. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON FRIDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS. THE RAID WAS CALLED UPON AGAIN TO QUELL MASSIVE DERIVATIVE LOSSES BY OUR BULLION BANKS. THEY SUCCEEDED YESTERDAY
WE HAD A HUGE 500 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG 598 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN MONDAY;S TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1545 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD A HUGE TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT FRIDAY’S COMEX SESSION. LAST MONDAY MORNING WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF .5000 MILLION OZ ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/ THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF .66 MILLION OZ/NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTALS FOR THE MONTH: 1.16 MILLION OZ.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: A HUGE 598 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL TODAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.46) AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS LOSS IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1459 OI. CONTRACTS.
WE HAD A HUGE 500 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 40.435 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) TO WHICH WE MUST ADD THOSE STUPID “DELIVERIES” CALLED EXCHANGE FOR RISK , TOTALLING 1.16 MILLION OZ. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE 27 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 0.135 MILLION OZ AS THESE BOYS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK IN TAKING DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE PLANET.
// STANDING FOR SILVER//DEC INCREASES TO 43.635 MILLION OZ + .1.16 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 44.795 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI LOSS +// HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI)MEGA STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 598 CONTRACTS)/ TO WHICH WE ADD 1.16 MILLION OZ EX. FOR RISK //
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 569 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF DEC
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11DAYS, total 23,165 contracts: OR 115.825 MILLION OZ (2105 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 115.825 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 115.825 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE/ MAY EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ)
RESULT: WE HAD AN HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2045 CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 500 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF 40.435 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0.135 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD 1.16 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR EQUALS 44.795 MILLION OZ
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR DEC AT 44.795 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED LOSS OF 2045 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE 598 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATELY TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION. BUT THEY STILL NEED THESE ISSUANCE FOR REPLENISHMENT FOR FUTURE TRADING /THE STRONG TA.S. ISSUANCE//LIQUIDATION DISTORTS THE TOTAL OI CONTRACTS STANDING AT THE COMEX. NO NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON THURSDAY
/ HUGE NET SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE FRIDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT (1598) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE, AND CERTAINLY TODAY.
WE HAD 13 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.065 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 12,522 OI CONTRACTS TO 478,062 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A SMALL SIZED 86 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (12,522 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $29.65 IN PRICE FRIDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR DEC AT 57.284 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE. FOLLOWED BY A STRONG 160 CONTRACT QUE JUMP FOR 16,000 OZ ( 0.4977 TONNES). WE MUST NOW ADD 10.6406 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON 5 OCCASIONS IN THIS ACTIVE DECEMBER CONTRACT MONTH.
/NEW STANDING 83.9056 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $29.55 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 8834 OI CONTRACTS (27.47 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE VIOLENT ACTION AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO 160 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP TODAY (16,000 OZ) ALONG WITH THE 10.6406 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE THIS MONTH //NEW TOTAL TONNES OF DELIVERY: 83.9056
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 3688 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 478,156
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8834 CONTRACTS WITH 12,522 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 3688 EFP OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8834 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED BUT CRIMINAL 1262 CONTRACTS ISSUED. WE HAD A HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE FRIDAY AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT ITS PRICE CONTAINMENT STRATEGY IN FUTURE TRADING.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3688 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 12,522 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 8834 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DEC 55.117 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY.S 16,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD THOSE CRAZY EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON 5 PRIOR OCCASIONS OF 10.6406 TONNES//NEW STANDING 83.9056 TONNES
//NEW STANDING DECEMBER: 83.9056 TONNES
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE THURSDAY WITH SOME SUCCESS AS WE HAD A $29.55 PRICE LOSS. BUT WE HAD CONSIDERABLE NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED AS WE HAD A SMALL GAIN IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. STICKY GOLD’S LONGS ARE NOT FOOLED BY THE RAID IN PRICE AS THEY WERE REWARDED FRIDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.
4) VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1262 T.A.S.CONTRACTS///160 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OR 16,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
DEC
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 78,770 CONTRACTS OF 7,877,000 OZ OR 245.00 TONNES IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 7154 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 245.00 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 245.00 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 6.90% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 245.00 TONNES (we will also have a humdinger of an ex for physical issuance for this month/maybe this time we will surpass March 2022 record of 409 tonnes for the month)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF FEB. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 2045 CONTRACTS OI TO 149,668 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 500 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 500 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 500 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2045 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 500 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1459 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS A HUGE 7.295 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE $0.46 LOSS IN PRICE
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS/MONDAY MORNING FRIDAY NIGHT
ASIA TRADING MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.55 PTS OR 0.16%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 175.75 PTS OR 0.88%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 152.05 OR 0.03%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .66%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2910 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2909// Oil UP TO 70.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 73.97 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED12,522 CONTRACTS TO 478,067 WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $29.55 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. , WE LOST SOME NET LONGS WITH OUR STRONG PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. WE HAD, AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (3688). THUS WE HAD A STRONG LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 8834 CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE. OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD A FIELD DAY AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED RAID AS THEY ABSORBED FULLY THE ATTACK AND OFFERED A THANK YOU NOTE TO THE FED FOR THEIR WONDERFUL LARGESSE. THE LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE.
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE PAST WEEK. WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON FRIDAY.
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 82+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST 197 , 199, 2001,AND FRIDAY NIGHTS 202, AND 203 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! ACTUALLY THE FED HAS COAXED THE SPECULATORS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT WHILE THEY TAKE THE LONG SIDE AFTER THEY COMMENCE THE AVALANCHE IN LOWERING THE PRICE OF GOLD LIKE THESE PAST TWO DAYS OF RAIDS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S TRADING CULMINATING DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS OF RAIDS.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW DEEP INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 3685 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /DEC 3685 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3685 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 8834 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3688 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A VERY STRONG LOSS OF 12,522 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $29.55 FRIDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS A FAIR SIZED SIZED 1263 CONTRACTS, AND THESE WILL BE USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK).
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON MONDAY NOV 25, THEIR HUGE RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION (COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS ). THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LATE NOVEMBER’S OPTIONS EXPIRY TRADING. WE HAD CONTINUAL T.A.S. AND FINAL MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY NOV 29 .THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. SUBSIDED QUITE DRAMATICALLY DURING THE FIRST WEEK AND A HALF OF DECEMBER BUT THAT DRAMATICALLY CHANGED WITH CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION YESTERDAY WITH FRIDAY’S COMEX RAID.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: DEC (83.9056 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR ACTIVE DEC DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 48 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 73.265 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 10.6406 TONNES EQUALS 83.9056 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $29.55/)//AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDAY. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT (SATURDAY MORNING), AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL EVER PRESENT. THIS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING.
LATE 15 DAYS AGO, FRIDAY NIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NOV 30) THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER OF THOSE CRAZY DELIVERIES: THE ISSUANCE OF 250 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHICH TOTAL 25000 OZ (.7776 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON IN PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE AND A HUGE VIOLATION OF THE TRUE DISCOVERY PRICE MECHANISM WHICH IS THE COMEX MANTRA!. AND THEN GUESS WHAT? THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER EXCHANGE FOR RISK, LATE TUESDAY EVENING/ EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, (DEC 5) OF 617 CONTRACTS FOR 61,700 OZ OR GOLD (1.919 TONNES). THEN MUCH TO MY ANGER, THE CME ANNOUNCED A THIRD ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT DEC 7 FOR A MONSTROUS 2254 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OR 225,400 OZ OR 7.0108 TONNES. NOT TO BE UNDONE, THE CROOKS CONTINUED WITH THEIR NONSENSE WITH ANOTHER 50 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK THE MORNING OF DEC 12 FOR 5000 OZ OR .1555 TONNES. AND THIS BRINGS US TO THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHERE I WAS SHOCKED TO SEE FOR THE FIFTH TIME THIS MONTH AN ENTRY FOR 250 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 25000 OZ OR .7776 TONNES.THUS ALL FIVE OF THESE ISSUANCES WILL BE ADDED TO THE TOTAL GOLD BEING “DELIVERED UPON”. TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCES FOR THE MONTH NOW TOTALS 10.6406. NO EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OF 27.20 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DEC (55.167TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 16,000 OZ OR 0.4977 TONNES, TO WHICH WE MUST ADD OUR 5 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL OF 10.6406 TONNES. THUS TAKEN TOGETHER,, THE TOTAL GOLD STANDING FOR THIS VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER IS:
73.265 TONNES (NORMAL DELIVERY) +
10.6406 TONNES (EX FOR RISK)
EQUALS: 83.9056 TONNES
/ STANDING FOR DEC INCREASES TO 83.9056 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR DECEMBER: 83.9056 TONNES (WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH)
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $29.55
WE HAD 85 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8,834 CONTRACTS OR 874,500 (27.20 TONNES)
confirmed volume FRIDAY 197,109 contracts: fair //// T.A.S. ENHANCED TO A MUCH GREATER EXTENT.
177 GOOD LONDON DELIVERY BARS REMOVED (APPROX. 400 OZ PER BAR)
.
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
NIL OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
41,796.300 OZ /BRINKS 800 ,kilobars MANFRA 500 kilobars 1300 kilobars
No of oz served (contracts) today
569 notice(s) 56900 OZ 1.7698 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
1096 contracts 109600 OZ 3.409 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
22,159 notices 2,215900 oz 68.923 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposits: NIL oz
we have 2 customer deposit
i) Into BRINKS 25,720.800 oz (800 kilobars)
ii) Into Manfra: 16,075.500 oz (500 kilobars)
total deposits 41,796.300 oz 1300 kilobars
strictly a paper gold entry.
withdrawals: 1
i)Brinks enhanced: 10,631.801 (177 good London delivery bars)
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 10,631,801 oz
adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.
For the front month of DEC: we have an oi of 1665 contracts having LOST 1454 contracts. We had A HUGE 1614 contracts served on FRIDAY, so we GAINED a strong 160 contracts or 16000 oz (0.4977 TONNES) underwent a MASSIVE queue jump bolting ahead of others to take delivery of gold over on this side of the planet.
JANUARY LOST 12 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 3643
FEBRUARY LOST 9280 CONTRACTS TO 356,949 .
We had 569 contracts filed for today representing 56900 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 126 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 569 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 151 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for DEC /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (22,159 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC(1665 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (569 x 100 oz per contract( equals 2,355,500 OZ OR 73.265 TONNES. to which we add 10.6406 tonnes of exchange for risk WHICH EQUALS 83.9056 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month: No of notices filed so far (22,159 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of DEC (1665 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (569 x 100 oz which equals 2,355,500 oz (73.265 TONNES) + 10.6406 tonnes of ex. for risk MONTH OF DEC //new total GOLD STANDING 83.9056 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.: 83.9056 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 18,675,121.278 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 8,312,797.698/// 258.56 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 10,331.169.081 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,434,929 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 200.153 tonnes //
JPMorgan enhanced inventory is 3.592 million oz/1,877,000 oz = 19.15% of entire inventory..
END
SILVER/COMEX
DEC 16. 2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE DEC 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
614,546.300 OZ asahi
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
13 CONTRACT(S) (65,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
214 contracts (1.070 MILLION oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
8513 Contracts (42.565 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 customer deposits
total customer deposits nil oz
We had 1 withdrawals
i) Out of ASAHI 614,546.300 oz
total withdrawal 614,546.300 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 135.000million oz/307.724million or 43.97%
adjustment 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 76.737MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 307.725 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DEC
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF DEC /2024 OI: 227 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 97 CONTRACTS. WE HAD
124 CONTRACTS ISSUED ON FRIDAY SO WE HAD A HUGE 27 CONTRACT OR 135,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE BOYS WILL TRY THEIR LUCK AND TAKE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER OVER HERE.
JANUARY SAW A LOSS OF 64 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2297
FEBRUARY SAW A GAIN OF 32 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 182
MARCH SAW A LOSS OF 1782 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 120,679
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 13 for 65,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON FRIDAY 67.221 good// t.a.s. enhanced
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 8513x 5,000 oz = 42.565 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC (227) and the number of notices served upon today (13)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the DEC 2024 contract month: 8513 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC(227) minus number of notices served upon today (13)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the DEC contract month equating to 43.636 MILLION OZ. + to which we add 1.16 million oz of exchange for risk PRIOR////new total 44.795 MILLION OIOZ
New total standing: 44.795 million oz.
There are 76,737 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
DEC 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.70 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 863.90 TONNES
DEC 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $24.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.78 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.60 TONNES
DEC 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $34.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.59 TONNES INTO THE GLD / // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.38 TONNES
DEC 11 WITH GOLD UP $29.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.79 TONNES
DEC 9 WITH GOLD UP $31.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. // : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
DEC 6 WITH GOLD UP $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.71 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
DEC 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES
DEC 4 WITH GOLD UP $6.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.31 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 873.65 TONNES
DEC 3 WITH GOLD UP $10.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.59 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./ : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.96 TONNES
DEC 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES
NOV 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : Z WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES
NOV 27 WITH GOLD UP $18.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNE
NOV 26 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNES
NOV 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD :. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.97 TONNES
NOV 21 WITH GOLD UP $23.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,39 TONNES
NOV 20 WITH GOLD UP $22.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23 TONNES
NOV 19 WITH GOLD UP $13.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.65 TONNES
NOV 18 WITH GOLD UP $44.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.93 TONNES
NOV 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.37 TONNES
NOV 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.91 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.62 TONNES
NOV 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.63 TONNES
NOV 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871,97 TONNE
NOV 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.85 TONNES
NOV 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH GOLD UP $30.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $72.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES
NOV 5 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 863.90 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
DEC 16 WITH SILVER DOWN 0 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.84 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 458.052 MILLION OZ
DEC 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 46 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF .536 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 462.892 MILLION OZ
DEC 12 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.787 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 463.428 MILLION OZ
DEC 11 WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.597 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.215 MILLION OZ
DEC 10 WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.868 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.812 MILLION OZ
DEC 9 WITH SILVER UP $0.91 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.367 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.680 MILLION OZ
DEC 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.00 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.329 MILLION OZ/// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.047 MILLION OZ
DEC 5 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ
DEC 4 WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV”: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.206 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.718 MILLION OZ
DEC 3 WITH SILVER UP 59 CENTS //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ
DEC 2 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,458,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ
NOV 29 WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 365,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.382 MILLION OZ
NOV 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ
NOV 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ
NOV 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.96 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.40 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.06 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.729 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.22 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.572 MILLION OZ
NOV 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 5,742,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477..572 MILLION OZ
NOV 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1,277,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ
NOV 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.09 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3,100,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ
NOV 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,504,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.653 MILLION OZ
NOV 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,274,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.157 MILLION OZ
NOV 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.16 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 576,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 476.000 MILLION OZ
NOV 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.79 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 374,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.527 MILLION OZ
NOV 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.846 MILLION OZ
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.11 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.692 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.18 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.109 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 479,533 MILLION OZ
In a recent discussion with Darcy Ungaro of The Everyday Investor, Peter challenged the widespread narratives surrounding government spending, the Fed’s 2% inflation target, and the policies that perpetuate these problems. Peter and Darcy highlight the underlying structural issues that plague the economy—massive government debt, intentional inflation, and a citizenry oblivious of the true cost of inflation.
Peter begins by pointing to the fundamental problem: profligate politicians have borrowed freely, relying on the reserve currency status of the US dollar and eager lenders worldwide. That global willingness to lend paved the way for politicians to promise generous programs without raising enough revenue to cover them:
The world was dumb enough to loan us the money. But it goes back to the days where the dollar became the reserve currency. And so the world is looking to accumulate dollars and not to just hold them in cash, but to lend them out to generate a return…
These large deficits enable politicians to promise something for nothing, which is how politicians win elections…
And so if you deliver government programs but you don’t raise taxes, commensurate with the cost of those programs, then you get votes.
This $34 trillion figure barely scratches the surface of America’s true liabilities. Unfunded promises, hidden from official tallies, only compound the country’s dire financial position:
But that’s just the tip of the iceberg because politicians didn’t just borrow money and spend it. They actually promised voters all sorts of benefits that have never been funded. So that’s still a debt that’s still a liability. Social Security, Medicare, guaranteed student loans, guaranteed mortgages, guaranteed brokerage accounts, guaranteed pensions – the US government gave all these benefits to Americans but never funded them. … So the government is hopelessly insolvent.
With the debt ballooning, the Federal Reserve faces immense pressure. Peter suggests that while the market expects interest rate cuts, economic reality demands hikes instead:
Well, the markets expect a cut, but a cut is not warranted. In fact, the Fed should continue to hike….
[The debt] is currently financed at very low rates and it would have to be rolled over at much, much higher rates. In addition, we’re adding about a trillion dollars a quarter to the national debt. So that’s another $4 trillion that the government’s going to need to borrow. In addition to the $9 trillion, it’s going to need to refinance. So you’re looking at $13 trillion of debt. I mean, I just don’t think the appetite is there around the world.
Peter recounts the history of the Fed’s 2% inflation target, noting that it was originally intended to be a limit, not a target:
Central banks eventually perverted this whole concept to making a target of inflation. Like you need 2%, that 1% isn’t enough. But that was never part of what New Zealand did. They never said that we needed 2% inflation. They just said if we get 2%, that’s too much. It needs to be, it needs to be less. 2% was the upper end of what they would tolerate for inflation. But it became the target and now it’s really a floor.
It’s in the government’s best interest to have inflation. And so they have to convince the public that it’s good for them… because that’s how they give you something for nothing.
But inflation is a tax. It’s just a tax that the public doesn’t realize they’re paying. And they actually expect us to believe it.
Contrary to what the mainstream says, falling prices benefit consumers. Falling prices don’t destroy commerce any more than rising prices:
Nobody wants health care to be more expensive, education to be more expensive, their insurance to be more expensive. Everybody wants stuff to get cheaper and it’s better.
Now, the other thing they say as well, if prices go down, businesses can’t make any money. Sure, they can. They make more money because their costs are also coming down.
Charts are not infallible, but this one tells us that there is a high degree of inevitability that the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note is set to rise. Recently, the yield tested the golden cross formed by the 55-day and 200-day moving averages and has subsequently moved higher. The longer-term four decades chart puts this in another worrying perspective:
In August 2022, the chart broke a 42-year downtrend, always contained by the Fed reducing interest rates to rescue the US — and the world’s — economy from the fallout of bursting credit bubbles. Consequently, malinvestments and other economic distortions haven’t been purged from the system and are now rolled up into the biggest credit bubble ever seen. The consequence is heightened credit risk, which is now systemic, reflected in rising borrowing costs.
Part of this story is the debt trap the US Government now faces. Macroeconomic analysis suggests that the Fed will respond by reducing interest rates to contain credit risk and stop the zombie economy from collapsing and taking down the commercial banks. But the error in this line of thinking is to not understand that risk and borrowing costs correlate: in other words, higher interest rates reflect increasing credit risk.
That the four-decade long downtrend in US Treasury yields was finally broken in August 2022 is confirmation that the Fed no longer controls interest rates: the market has taken over. No doubt, as rising rates start bankrupting zombie corporations, and inevitably create a stock market crash, any attempt by the Fed to reduce interest rates will undermine the dollar.
While it is unthinkable for today’s investors that the Fed can lose control over interest rates, there is historical precedent. Three times following the 1844 Bank Charter Act, the Bank of England did precisely that: in 1847 only three years after the charter was granted, 1857, and 1866. The error was to not realise the true function of interest rates, which was to manage the gold reserves, and not influence economic outcomes.
We don’t have a gold exchange standard today, but the same principle applies. If the Fed muscles rates lower at times of high credit risk, it simply undermines the currency. And just as the Bank of England erred after the 1844 Act, we can be certain the Fed will do so in 2025. And just as England’s gold reserves faced a run on those occasions, today the gold price will rise, which put another way will see the dollar’s purchasing power decline at an accelerating rate.
A word to te wise: get out of credit!
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
Gold’s upward revaluation continues and silver is next, Maguire tells LFTV
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2024-12-14 11:41 Section: Daily Dispatches
11:40a ET Saturday, December 14, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
London metals trader Andrew Maguire, speaking on this week’s edition of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program, says gold’s stair-step upward revaluation continues and that silver is setting up for a sharper rise. He adds that President-elect Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on countries he deems hostile to the U.S. dollar will boost gold as well.
The program is 40 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
END
Indonesia’s finance authority says country urgently needs a gold bank
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-12-16 10:45 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Nabiila Azzahra Tempo, Jakarta, Indonesia Sunday, December 15, 2024
Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority (OJK) said the need to establish a gold bank in Indonesia is urgent. A gold bank is a form of bullion business activity that is currently being developed by OJK and the government.
The chief executive of the Supervisory Board of Financing Institutions, Venture Capital Companies, Microfinance Institutions, and Other Financial Services Institutions of OJK, Agusman, explained the urgency of organizing bullion business activities.
Agusman said this was necessary considering Indonesia’s position as a producer and one of the largest gold reserve owners in the world but also as an importer to meet domestic gold needs.
With a gold bank, Indonesia will finally be able to record the value of its gold stock and include gold in its financial balance sheet. …
Trafigura saw its net profit for the financial year 2023/2024 ended on September 30 plunge by 62% as the commodity trading giant recorded a loss of $1.1 billion related to serious misconduct by individuals in its Mongolian oil business.
Trafigura booked a net profit of $2.8 billion for FY2024, down from a $7.3 billion profit in FY2023 and $6.8 billion for FY 2022, the oil and metals trading house said on Friday.
The underlying performance was strong, with strong contributions from all three core businesses – Oil and Petroleum Products; Metals, Minerals, and Bulk Commodities; and Gas, Power, and Renewables, said outgoing chief executive Jeremy Weir.
He is stepping down from the CEO role in January 2025 after ten years. Weir will be chairman of Trafigura’s board as of next year and will be succeeded by Richard Holtum as CEO, effective 1 January 2025.
Commenting on the FY2024 performance, Weir said that the strong business performance was “marred by the extremely disappointing discovery of serious misconduct by individuals in our Mongolian oil business, involving deliberate manipulation of data and documents and concealment of overdue receivables.”
Trafigura publicly disclosed in October 2024 that it had recorded a total loss of $1.1 billion on the discovered fraud in the Mongolian business. Of this loss, $358 million is reflected in the FY2024 results.
“An external investigation remains ongoing. We have reviewed other higher-risk offices and lines of business, and we are confident that these issues are isolated to a self-contained operation in Mongolia,” Weir said.
In accordance with International Accounting Standards (IAS 8), Trafigura has also restated prior year comparative figures to account for the exposure provisions for the Mongolian business.
In oil and petroleum products, “prices periodically disconnected from physical market fundamentals because of factors including the conflict in the Middle East, disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea and the ongoing war in Ukraine,” Trafigura said.
Separately, Trafigura and three other defendants earlier this month went on trial in Switzerland’s top criminal court over allegations of bribery. Trafigura has been charged for failing to take all reasonable measures to prevent payment of more than $5 million in bribes to an Angolan oil official in exchange for oil and shipping contracts more than a decade ago.
END
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
Bitcoin Tops $106K, Goes ‘Santa Claus Mode’ As Optimism Grows For US Reserve Status
Monday, Dec 16, 2024 – 11:05 AM
Bitcoin’s price rallied almost 5% over the weekend to set a new all-time high above $106,000 amid speculation that it may become a United States reserve asset.
CK Zheng, chief investment officer of ZK Square, told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin has likely entered “Santa Claus mode,” as many investors fear missing out and look to allocate more capital into the asset class.
He predicted a Bitcoin price tag of $125,000 in early 2025 but warned a possible 30% correction could follow as most of the bullish news from the incoming Trump administration has been “priced in.”
A 30% correction from $125,000 would see Bitcoin retrace to around $87,500.
From a liquidity perspective, we should not be surprised that bitcoin continues to charge higher (but the new year may bring some weakness)…
Bitcoin has also reached a new record relative to gold (1 BTC can now buy 40 oz of gold).
Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, writes that while the Santa Claus rally is a well-documented phenomenon in traditional stock markets, its presence in cryptocurrency is less clear.
Cryptocurrencies, known for their volatility and 24/7 trading, don’t always follow equities’ seasonal patterns. A second trend can be applied to this model that has empirically proven a powerful predictor of a Santa Claus rally occurring in Cryptoland: whether or not the market is in a bull run.
It’s safe to say that crypto firmly checks that box right now, thus making a compelling case for a severe rally coming together as the year draws close. In late 2017, for example, BTC rallied by 68% over the two weeks spanning the New Year. Subsequent years have been more muted, in line with the prevailing market mood at the time. But then there’s 2024, which has already broken all crypto records. One wouldn’t bet against it closing out the year on a tear just to complete the clean sweep.
If traders buy into the Santa Claus rally thesis, they don’t need to create a prediction market to speculate on the likelihood — although nothing is stopping them. In crypto, financial freedom comes as a standard. A more intelligent strategy is filling one’s conviction bags before the year-end. Load up on the assets you believe in the most, and then sit back and let the prophecy unfold.
As 2024 closes out, the financial landscape presents a mix of optimism and caution. The global economy has shown resilience, with many sectors rebounding from previous downturns. Consumer spending during the holiday season is expected to be robust, bolstering market sentiment. The only potential dampener could be the escalation of global tensions in the Middle East or Ukraine. Still, barring a major macro event, there’s every reason to expect the current bull market to remain intact.
Even if the Santa Claus rally proves to be a damp squib on this occasion, it’s no biggie: The bags investors have accumulated now are likely to stand them in good stead next year as the crypto market continues to grind higher. They don’t have to leave a glass of milk and some cookies out, but there’s no excuse for not being ready for Santa this Christmas.
It comes as Strike founder and CEO Jack Mallers said US President-Elect Donald Trump could potentially issue an executive order designating Bitcoin as a reserve asset on his first day in office on Jan. 20.
“There’s potential to use a day-one executive order to purchase Bitcoin,” Mallers stated, adding:
“It wouldn’t be the size and scale of 1 million coins but it would be a significant position.”
Meanwhile, Satoshi Action Fund CEO Dennis Porter saida third Bitcoin reserve bill is in the works at the state level, though he didn’t say which state might follow Texas and Pennsylvania’s lead.
“We had Pennsylvania, and we had Texas. And now we have another state coming on board. And they sent me the draft. So I know it’s real,” he said during a Dec. 15 X Spaces.
Porter added he expects at least 10 states to introduce a Bitcoin reserve bill in total.
“Its not going to stop. We’re going to see more and more of these bills come. At least 10, in my opinion.”
Financial analysts are also tipping a 0.25% interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve on Dec. 18, which could lift Bitcoin’s price even further in the coming months.
Another catalyst behind Bitcoin’s price surge may be one of the new rules by the Financial Accounting Standards Board, which enables institutions to record the value of their crypto assets more realistically. The rule will apply to fiscal years beginning after Dec. 15.
However, bitcoin’s market sentiment is currently in the “Extreme Greed” zone at a score of 83 out of 100, according to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.
Crypto Fear and Greed Index score for Dec. 16. Source: Alternative.me
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 152.05 OR 0.03%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .66%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2910 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2909// Oil UP TO 70.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 73.97 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2910
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2909
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 5.55 PTS OR 0.03%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 175.75 PTS OR 0.88%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 12.95 PTS OR 0.03%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 106.65 EURO RISES TO 1.0498 UP 45 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISWS TO. +1.059 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 154.06…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.2295 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.379 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 2.912
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.055
3j Gold at $2657.65/Silver at: 30.64 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 65/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 103.85
3m oil into the 70 dollar handle for WTI and 73 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 154.15 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.059% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.827 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9373 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.367 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.578 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.226 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.96…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.4385 UP 3 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.182 UP 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.975 DOWN 1 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
US Futures Jump, Ignore Global Selloff While Focusing On Imminent Rate Cut
Monday, Dec 16, 2024 – 08:27 AM
The last full week of 2024 started off with a burst of US exceptionalism which helped US equity futures shrug off downbeat performances in other global markets as traders prepared for a slate of interest-rate decisions by major central banks due later this week. S&P and Nasdaq futures both traded at record high, as did Bitcoin which hit a fresh all-time high of $106,000. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were 0.3% higher and Nasdaq futures gained 0.5% as the panic chase of momentum, which pushed the index at an all-time high on Friday, continued. MicroStrategy advanced more than 6% in premarket trading, fueled by its pending inclusion in the index following the software maker’s transformation into a leveraged bet on Bitcoin. Monday’s US stock performance stands in stark contrast with broad losses in Asia and Europe as weaker-than-expected retail data in China weighed on sentiment. A contraction in the euro-area’s private sector also dragged on European equities. Treasuries climb, pushing US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 4.38%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1%. Oil dipped with WTI falling 0.9% to $70.60 a barrel. Today’s key macro events are the Empire Fed Manfuacturing index and S&P Global PMI prints for the US.
In premarket trading, MicroStrategy leads fellow cryptocurrency-exposed stocks higher on optimism about the company’s upcoming inclusion of the company in the Nasdaq 100 Index. MicroStrategy (MSTR) +4%, Riot Platforms (RIOT) +2%, Mara Holdings (MARA) +2%. On the other end, Super Micro Computer tumbled 15% after the announcement that the stock is to be removed from the Nasdaq 100 in the annual reconstitution of the index. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Axon (AXON) rises 2% as the stock will be added to Nasdaq 100 Index in annual reconstitution of the index.
Capri Holdings (CPRI) climbs 5% after Women’s Wear Daily reported that the fashion company is working with a bank to find buyers for its Versace and Jimmy Choo brands.
Edgewise Therapeutics (EWTX) gains 23% after the company said its Phase 2 trial of sevasemten in individuals with Becker muscular dystrophy met its primary endpoint.
Ford shares (F) falls 2% as Jefferies turns bearish on the automaker, citing concerns ranging from inventory overhang to looming strategic decisions on the company’s European presence.
Honeywell (HON) advances 3% after saying it’s considering strategic options, including the possible separation of its aerospace business, a month after Elliott Investment Management called for a breakup of the industrial group.
Red Cat (RCAT) rises 14% after the drone tech company announced a strategic partnership with Palantir Technologies.
Teradyne, NetApp and Keysight Technologies all rise after JPMorgan upgraded the three tech hardware firms amid growing demand for their products.
An expected quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday could add fresh support and extend US stocks’ outperformance. The S&P 500 has rallied 27% so far in 2024, with strategist expecting the rally to build further steam in anticipation of favorable economic policies under President-elect Donald Trump and strong earnings.
“Central banks have been helpful in 2024 as they start cutting interest rates when the economy was still strong,” Marija Veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Equities, told Bloomberg TV. Going forward, “what we need to rely on is earnings and where they can grow the fastest. In the US, we can still see solid growth.”
Wednesday’s Fed decision will be followed by peers in Japan, the Nordics and the UK over the following day. Swaps traders are now pricing in around three quarter-point rate cuts by the Fed over the next 12 months, whereas they’d seen better than 50/50 odds of a fourth one a week ago.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down 0.3% in the wake of disappointing retail-sales data in China, while traders assess the impact of Moody’s Ratings’ France downgrade. Banks are the best performers while Novo Nordisk boosts healthcare stocks after announcing its Catalent deal got the go-ahead. Automakers and consumer goods are the biggest laggards. France’s CAC 40 falls 0.7%, underperforming its regional peers after Moody’s cut the French credit rating on Friday. Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:
Novo Nordisk shares rise as much as 2.7% after the Danish drugmaker said it can advance with its acquisition of factories from contract development and manufacturing organization Catalent.
Basilea shares rise as much as 9.2% after the Swiss pharma company entered into an exclusive distribution and license agreement with Innoviva for the commercialization of Basilea’s hospital anti-MRSA antibiotic Zevtera in the US.
Johnson Matthey shares rise as much as 6.6%, the most since March, after its largest shareholder, Standard Investments, called on the chemicals company to refresh its board and launch a strategic review of the business following its underperformance in recent years.
Galderma gains as much as 4.7%, the most since Aug. 6 and hitting a record high, after UBS upgraded the Swiss dermatology firm to buy from neutral.
DKSH shares gain as much as 3.5%, the most since July, after the Swiss distribution group saw its recommendation raised to outperform from neutral at BNP Paribas Exane, seeing a “potent mix of margin expansion and balance sheet optimization” driving earnings momentum.
Bunzl shares rise as much as 2.8% after the value-added distributor was upgraded by analysts at RBC Capital Markets, citing a dependable outlook and an undemanding valuation.
Porsche Automobil Holding SE shares drop as much as 3.3% after the German firm withdrew its current year forecast due to the expected impairment of at-equity carrying amounts of its investments in Volkswagen and Porsche AG.
Getlink shares drop as much as 3.6%, the most since June, after the travel infrastructure operator warned it has discovered a second fault on its interconnector between France and the UK.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also slumped, dragged lower by shares in mainland China after the country’s retail sales data came below expectations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.2%, with China Eastern Airlines and Australian miner Fortescue Ltd among the biggest losers. Hong Kong and mainland China were among the worst performing markets in the region, while the stock benchmark in Taiwan rose. China’s data dump on Monday showed retail sales for November rose 3% on-year, well below an expectation of a 5% gain. That weighed on sentiment at a time when Beijing has been touting more stimulus to support spending. Home prices fell for a third month in a row, although the decline is slowing. Chip makers Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co and SK Hynix were among the gainers. A gauge tracking Asian IT shares was up around 0.3%.
The retail-sales data “is a reflection of the dire situation there and how the stimulus efforts have prioritized optics over delivering meaningful economic improvements,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore. “Even for a tactical recovery, we need more after a series of false starts and the risk of tariffs ahead.”
“This data really verifies that the headwinds for consumers are still very very high,” said Johanna Chua, head of emerging market economics at Citigroup Global Markets in a Bloomberg TV interview.
In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index was little changed after six days of gains. Wall Street is starting to sour on the dollar as President-elect Donald Trump’s policies and the Fed’s interest-rate cuts will likely put pressure on the greenback in the latter portion of 2025. Roughly a half dozen sell-side strategists are now forecasting the world’s reserve currency will peak as early as mid next year before starting to decline. Euro-area PMIs were mixed and largely ignored with the euro little changed versus the dollar. The pound outperforms, rising 0.2% as investors seemed to focus on the services PMI beat rather than the manufacturing PMI miss.
In rates, treasuries hold small gains, tracking bigger rallies in bunds and gilts after mixed European PMI readings and recovering some of last week’s steep loss. US yields are richer by 1.5bp to 3bp across maturities with gains led by front-end and belly, steepening 5s30s spread by ~1bp. 10-year is back around 4.37% after topping 4.4% Friday for the first time since Nov. 22. OATs also lag their German counterparts, widening the 10-year yield spread to around 79 bps, after France was downgraded unexpectedly by Moody’s on Friday. Treasury coupon auctions this week include $13 billion 20-year bond reopening Tuesday and $22 billion 5-year TIPS reopening Thursday. US session includes Empire manufacturing survey and US PMIs, with November retail sales ahead Tuesday before Wednesday’s Fed rate decision. Oil trades lower, also supporting Treasuries.
In commodities, oil prices declined, with WTI falling 0.9% to $70.60 a barrel after rising 6.1% last week. Spot gold adds $12 to around $2,660/oz. Bitcoin rallies to a record high.
Today’s US economic data calendar includes December Empire manufacturing (8:30am) and S&P Global US manufacturing and services PMIs at 9:45am
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 6,061.50
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 515.69
MXAP down 0.2% to 185.09
MXAPJ down 0.2% to 584.05
Nikkei little changed at 39,457.49
Topix down 0.3% to 2,738.33
Hang Seng Index down 0.9% to 19,795.49
Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,386.33
Sensex down 0.4% to 81,777.79
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 8,249.48
Kospi down 0.2% to 2,488.97
German 10Y yield down 1 bp at 2.25%
Euro up 0.1% to $1.0516
Brent Futures down 0.7% to $73.97/bbl
Gold spot up 0.4% to $2,657.85
US Dollar Index down 0.19% to 106.81
Top Overnight News
US DHHS nominee (under President-elect Trump) RFK Jr. is to attempt to win over the Senate by playing down the vaccine topic and sticking to Trump’s messaging: WSJ
Nasdaq announced that Palantir Technologies (PLTR), MicroStrategy (MSTR), and Axon Enterprise (AXON) will be added to the index, while Illumina (ILMN), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), and Moderna (MRNA) will be removed as part of the annual reconstitution of the Nasdaq-100 Index, which will become effective prior to market open on Monday, December 23rd: RTRS
WSJ’s Timiraos writes, ahead of this week’s FOMC, “Investors widely expect a third-in-a-row rate cut this week. Officials are ready to slow—or even stop—lowering rates after that.”
A surprise retail slowdown in China highlighted the urgency for Beijing to further boost consumer spending. Sales growth slowed sharply last month, though industrial output improved. BBG
China’s regulators pledged to boost efforts to stabilize the housing and equity markets, as well as conduct more effective fiscal policies. Several branches weighed in after a major leadership meeting last week ended in calls for greater stimulus. BBG
Eurozone flash PMIs for Dec are mixed, with an inline manufacturing reading (45.2, flat vs. Nov and a tiny bit below the consensus of 45.3) and upside services number (51.4, up from 49.5 in Nov and above the consensus of 49.5). S&P
The European Central Bank is likely to continue to lower its key interest rate as the threat of U.S. tariffs clouds already weak growth prospects, President Christine Lagarde said Monday. WSJ
French stocks struggled after Moody’s downgraded the country’s credit rating. New PM Francois Bayrou met with Marine Le Pen, who felt “listened to” but is unsure if the talks were useful. BBG
Apple plans to introduce new iPhones (including thinner models and foldable ones as well) as the firm prepares to offer more radical design changes to help accelerate growth. WSJ
Slumping office values are prompting smaller US banks to modify more CRE loans, Moody’s data show. About $500 billion of such mortgages are set to mature in the next year and many are expected to default. Potential losses and fire sales may further pressure property prices. BBG
Bitcoin briefly topped $106,000 — a fresh record — buoyed by optimism about MicroStrategy’s inclusion in the Nasdaq 100. BBG
Tesla (TSLA) has raised the price of the Model S to USD 79,990 from USD 74,990 in the US and the price of the Model S Plaid to USD 94,990 from USD 89,990, according to its website.
Meta (META) has urged the California Attorney General to stop OpenAI (MSFT) from becoming for-profit: WSJ.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks saw an uninspiring start to the week following the mixed session on Wall Street on Friday and ahead of this week’s risk events including the final FOMC, BoJ, and BoE meetings of the year. ASX 200 saw gold miners pressured by the recent pullback of the yellow metal towards USD 2,650/oz levels, with sentiment also weighed on by the downticks in prelim. Aussie PMIs. Nikkei 225 swung between modest positive and negative territory throughout the session as the index oscillated the 39,500 level, whilst the Japanese Flash PMI highlighted “stubborn inflation” with “anecdotal evidence placing particular emphasis on the impact of the weakness of the yen in relation to inputs sourced from abroad.” KOSPI conformed to the broader risk tone with little sustained move after South Korean MPs successfully voted to impeach President Yoon in their second attempt. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp fluctuated between modest gains and losses with little initial reaction seen to the Chinese activity data, which saw a marked miss in Retail Sales whilst Industrial Output saw a modest surprise uptick. Furthermore, Chinese markets failed to garner much support from weekend reports that China has room to further cut the RRR, according to PBoC officials on Saturday via CCTV.
Top Asian News
IDC expects China’s smartphone shipments to increase to 289mln in 2025, +1.6% Y/Y
China has room to further cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), according to PBoC officials on Saturday via CCTV.
China’s Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission deputy director said the country’s GDP is expected to grow by about 5% this year, with foreign exchange reserves remaining above USD 3.2tln. He added that China’s contribution to global economic growth is expected to be close to 30% and that employment and prices in China are expected to remain stable, according to Reuters.
Chinese Stats Bureau stated that China is on track to achieve key economic targets in 2024, but more efforts are needed to promote continued economic recovery in 2025. It added the trend of recovery in consumption remained unchanged and that more policies would be implemented to expand domestic demand. It noted that while new policies had gained more traction, the external situation had become more complex and severe. The Bureau expects further improvement in the property market, emphasises the need to stabilise employment and increase incomes to boost consumption capacity, and anticipates that China’s CPI will maintain modest increases. It also noted that China’s economy is generally stable in November and sees increasing positive changes, according to Reuters.
China Financial and Economic Affairs Commission says China will increase the size of government bonds, including local special bonds, in 2025, via Xinhua. Will promote stable household income growth next year through increasing direct fiscal support to consumers and improving social security. Will implement “appropriately loose” monetary policy to effective lower interest rate on local government debt. China still has big room for investment.
PBoC injected CNY 753.1bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.50%.
Moody’s raised China’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.2% from 4.0%, according to Reuters.
The US Treasury has told Nippon Steel (5401 JT) that the panel vetting its proposed acquisition of US Steel (X) has not reached a consensus on how to mitigate security risks, according to the FT.
New Zealand NZIER Consensus Forecasts show that the economic growth outlook remains broadly unchanged relative to the previous release; GDP forecasts continue to suggest sluggish growth in the year to March 2025 before picking up to 2.2% in the following year.
South Korea News
South Korean MPs have successfully voted to impeach President Yoon in their second attempt, amid backlash following his brief move to impose martial law, according to BBC. Yoon was suspended from official duties at 19:24 local time on Saturday while PM Han is to continue as acting president, according to Yonhap.
South Korea’s acting president Han vowed to leave no vacuum in state affairs, build a solid security posture, and ensure the cabinet works hard to maintain trust with the US, Japan, and other partners. He also pledged efforts to operate financial and forex markets smoothly, according to Yonhap. Acting President Han said the country will maintain preparedness to prevent North Korea from stirring up provocations, secure national interests ahead of the new US administration, and prioritise national security above all else, according to News1 and Yonhap.
South Korea’s opposition leader Lee Jae-myung said the party has decided not to proceed with the impeachment of acting president Han, according to Reuters.
Bank of Korea stated it is necessary to respond more actively to the economic impact compared with past impeachment periods, given heightened challenges in external conditions. It also said it will use all available policy instruments, in conjunction with the government, to respond to and avert escalation of volatility in financial and forex markets, according to Reuters.
South Korea’s Finance Minister said the government will continue to swiftly deploy market-stabilising measures as needed, seek more support measures for vulnerable sectors, and actively communicate with parliament to keep the economy stable. The minister also confirmed that the bi-annual economic policy plan will be announced before the end of the year, according to Reuters.
South Korea’s financial regulator said it will expand market-stabilising funds if needed to boost liquidity in bond and short-term money markets and expects financial markets to stabilise as recent political events are temporary shocks, according to Reuters.
European bourses began the European session on a modestly mixed footing, with indices generally trading on either side of the unchanged mark. As the morning progressed, sentiment slipped a touch to display a slightly negative picture in Europe. Today’s EZ PMIs strengthens the case for further ECB easing, but had little impact on the complex. European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with a clear defensive tilt given the risk tone. Healthcare takes the top spot, after heavyweight Novo Nordisk (+1.9%) gains after it announced regulatory approval for Catalent deal. Autos parks itself at the foot of the pile, weighed on by losses in Porsche SE (-1.7%) after the automaker withdrew guidance. US equity futures are very modestly on a firmer footing, with sentiment a little better vs in Europe. The NQ marginally outperforms vs peers.
Top European News
Moody’s cut France’s rating to “Aa3” from “Aa2”, outlook stable, in an unscheduled rating revision, citing political fragmentation. Moody’s said its view is that France’s public finances will be substantially weakened over the coming years. The agency noted that France’s political fragmentation is more likely to impede meaningful fiscal consolidation and said there is now a very low probability that the next French government will sustainably reduce the size of fiscal deficits beyond next year. However, France’s local- and foreign-currency ceilings remain unchanged at AAA, according to Moody’s.
ECB Holzmann said it would be wrong to cut rates just to help the economy, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Lagarde says more rate cuts are to come and the direction of travel is clear, via Bloomberg; risks around inflation are two sided. “The ECB is also moving through its monetary policy cycle, and we are now at a stage where the darkest days of winter look to be behind us, and we can start to look forward instead.”
ECB’s de Guindos says “our confidence that inflation will converge to target in 2025 is reflected in our monetary policy”. US tariff increases could result in inflationary pressures.
EU reportedly presses for new powers to combat threat of Chinese import surge and amid fears Brussels will struggle to fight back in a global trade war, according to FT.
Norges Bank to purchase NOK and sell foreign currency to fund transfers to the government for FY24.
SNB has adjusted the remuneration of sight deposits, lowers the threshold factor from 22 to 20 as of 1st February 2025.
FX
DXY is flat and has been trading within a very tight 106.75-92 range for much of the European morning. As it stands the index currently trades towards the bottom end of Friday’s 106.71-107.18 range; and quite a bit away from its 21 DMA at 106.47. US Flash PMIs due later.
EUR is flat vs the Dollar, with price action fairly choppy as traders react to a slew the EZ PMI metrics dotted throughout the morning. ECB President Lagarde spoke today, with her commentary very much in-fitting with her remarks made at her press conference. EUR/USD traded choppily to the French figures, but ultimately edged a little higher on the German release. Since, the upside has been pared to reside around 1.05.
JPY is essentially flat, but is the G10 laggard thus far. Overnight, the Japanese PMI release showed manufacturing rebounding and services improving. USD/JPY sits in a very tight 153.31-96 range, a touch above Friday’s 153.79.
GBP is on a stronger footing, in reaction to the region’s PMI release which saw the Services figure above expectations and further into expansionary territory, while Manufacturing was a touch softer. Cable currently trades at the top end of today’s 1.2609-72 range, with today’s peak coinciding with its 21 DMA at 1.2670.
Antipodeans are marginally firmer vs the Dollar; the Kiwi outperforms vs the Aussie. AUD currently trades at the mid-point of a 0.6348-82 range, and just within Friday’s confines. NZD/USD on the other hand, has topped the best from Friday and currently trades just off the day’s best at 0.5786.
Norges Bank said it is to purchase NOK and sell foreign currency to fund transfers to the government for FY24. This helped to strengthen the NOK, with EUR/NOK slipping from 11.7440 to 11.7130 over the course of eight minutes; thereafter, extended to a session low of 11.7030 before paring almost the entire move.
S&P affirmed Mexico “BBB” foreign currency and “BBB+” local currency long-term rating; Outlook remains Stable.
Brazilian President Lula has been discharged from the hospital and has recovered well and can resume normal work activities but is to avoid long-haul flights, according to the medical team.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1882 vs exp. 7.2769 (prev. 7.1876)
Fixed Income
USTs are rangebound in a tight 109-27+ to 109-31+ band ahead of Flash PMIs from the US but with the focus firmly on Wednesday’s FOMC. Given contained action for the benchmark yields are also relatively steady but are lower across the curve, which itself is marginally flatter.
Bunds are pressured, but yet to deviate significantly from the unchanged mark in a tight 134.43-73 band. PMIs sparked modest two way action with the net read being bearish as the German economy fares better than expected in some areas. Into the EZ-wide release, Bunds edged a little higher but the poor manufacturing situation saw Bunds pare back those gains. As it stands, Bunds reside just in the red as the dust settles post-PMIs and remarks from ECB speakers thus far are yet to move the dial; ahead, the often influential Schnabel is scheduled.
OATs are softer and moved in tandem with EGBs on the German metrics after being relatively unreactive to their own PMIs which focused firmly on political uncertainty. As a reminder, and weighing, Moody’s downgraded France a notch with the outlook stable, due to increased political uncertainty and a low probability that the gov’t will succeed in reducing the deficit.
Gilts are a touch firmer but little changed overall into the UK Flash PMI release, which was mixed but in a delayed reaction weighed on Gilts, given services strength and inflationary internals, pressuring them from a 94.50 high back towards but not testing earlier 94.24 lows.
Commodities
WTI and Brent began the session modestly in the red before slipping further as the European session got underway given the tepid risk tone for the region. Brent’Feb 2025 sits just shy of USD 74/bbl.
Gold is firmer and at the top-end of parameters for today. XAU found itself under pressure in APAC trade and slipped to a USD 2643/oz base before bouncing back and residing at USD 2662/oz highs.
Base metals are mostly on the back foot, given the risk tone; Copper is a little more contained, not really deriving any direction from the morning’s PMIs or before than from China activity data and commentary.
Marathon’s Detroit refinery (140k BPD) union workers voted to ratify a pay deal following a three-month strike, according to a union post on X.
Damage to two tankers in the Black Sea caused an oil products spill, according to Interfax.
Nigeria’s maritime agency reported an oil spill at the Shell loading terminal in Nigeria’s Delta region after a pipeline ruptured, according to Reuters.
Libya’s NOC declared force majeure at its Zawiya facility following clashes, according to Bloomberg.
Nornickel CEO Potanin said the company will move to positive free cash flow in 2025 and, until then, shareholders will need to be patient with dividends, according to Russian media RBC.
Some Japanese aluminium buyers agree to a January-March premium of USD 228/t, +30% from the current quarter, according to Reuters sources.
Geopolitics: Middle East
“Progress in the negotiations of the exchange deal and may be completed after the Jewish holidays at the end of this month”, according to Al Jazeera citing an informed source via Israeli press.
US President-elect Trump and Israeli PM discussed the Gaza hostage deal bid and Syria on Sunday, according to Reuters.
Israeli PM Netanyahu’s government approved a plan to expand settlements on Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The statement said Netanyahu acted “in light of the war and the new front facing Syria” and out of a desire to double the Israeli population on the Golan, according to Reuters.
Russia is pulling back its military in Syria but is not withdrawing from its main military bases, Syrian sources say, according to Reuters.
Trump’s Middle East envoy has met with the Saudi crown prince, according to Axios.
“Syrian media: Strong explosions in the countryside of Tartous and Latakia resulting from an Israeli attack” according to Asharq News. Note: Russia has two bases in Syria – a naval base in Tartous and the Khmeimim Air Base near the port city of Latakia..
“US sources to Alarabiya English: US army carried out strikes against Houthi sites in Yemen”, according to Al Arabiya.
Geopolitics: US-China
US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the Treasury continues to warn China about the potential for bank sanctions over transactions aiding Russia’s war effort in Ukraine and will not rule out sanctions on Chinese banks. She noted that the largest Chinese banks are wary of the consequences. Yellen also said the US aims to reduce Russia’s energy revenues, with options such as lowering the oil price cap and imposing more sanctions on ‘dark fleet’ tankers being considered. She emphasised the need for clear communication channels at all levels between the US and China, stating that leader-to-leader discussions alone are insufficient. Yellen added that the next US Treasury Secretary is likely to continue pushing back on currency manipulation if evidence is found.
Geopolitics: Other
Russian President Putin says “is concerned about US development and deployment of short and medium-range missiles”; “we are not brandishing nuclear weapons, it a policy of nuclear deterrence”.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Dec. Empire Manufacturing, est. 10.0, prior 31.2
09:45: Dec. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 55.8, prior 56.1
09:45: Dec. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 55.1, prior 54.9
09:45: Dec. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 49.5, prior 49.7
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
This morning we will publish our 2025 survey results with lots of interesting answers. Your two favourite Xmas films are quite violent though so that’s the demographic of the responses! Long-time readers of the EMR will be wondering where time is going when I tell you that our belovedly wayward dog Brontë, who used to play a starring role in the EMR, was 10 over the weekend. Brontë is the most affectionate, good natured, people dog you can imagine but has zero recall. So in the first 2-3 years when we were trying to get used to having a dog, with extensive gun dog training included, we lost her on probably 7 or 8 occasions on walks. One of which was followed by my wife uttering (or shouting) the word “divorce” when I lost her on a motorway service station in France in the dark while my wife was feeding a very young baby around 8 years ago. She was seen crossing the motorway at one point before returning to the petrol pumps tired, bedraggled, and hungry two hours later. Since then she’s not been off the lead, and I saved my marriage by having our garden fortified. As she gets older, the calmer she doesn’t get. Happy birthday Brontë.
As we hit the last full week of the year, the natural winding down of activity will be punctuated by bursts of activity, centred around the Fed (Wednesday), the BoJ (Thursday) and the BoE (also Thursday) meetings. In terms of data, the highlights are the global flash PMIs today, US retail sales (tomorrow) and inflation prints from the US (PCE on Friday), Canada (tomorrow), UK (Wednesday), and Japan (Friday). Outside of that, today’s German government vote of no confidence should almost certainly pave the way for a February 23rd election and tomorrow’s CDU/CSU manifesto announcement will help shape the campaign (more later). Another thing to watch is France where Moody’s surprisingly cut France late on Friday night in a rare unscheduled move, albeit one that brings it in line with S&P and Fitch (also more below).
Let’s expand on some of these highlights now and start with the Fed. Our economists’ preview is here but in brief they expect a 25bps cut and then for them to be on hold for the entirety of 2025 as the SEP should show meaningful revisions to the 2024 economic forecasts, with growth and inflation revised higher and the unemployment rate lower. The median dot is likely to show three additional rate cuts but we think Powell will likely deemphasis this signal in the press conference and be as data dependant as he can be. Powell will also likely emphasise that it is still too early for officials to build any major policy changes from the new Trump administration into their outlook. The long-run dot will likely continue its upward migration, rising to 3.1%. Our economists’ estimates of neutral are notably above the Fed’s and we think they will likely continue to move this higher.
The BoJ meeting on Thursday is more uncertain, but most economists expect no change and with only a 16% probability of a hike priced in. Our Chief Japan economist previews the meeting here and goes against consensus in seeing a rate hike as the most likely scenario. One of the reasons why a hike might wait until January though is that MP Ishiba is trying to push a stimulus plan through parliament this month and the BoJ may prefer to avoid political interference and delay the hike.
On Thursday our UK economist expects a BoE hold, with a 9-0 vote decision, keeping the rate at 4.75%. The full preview of the meeting is here. The Riksbank is expected to cut rates 25bps on Thursday in a busy last full week of the year for central banks. For core PCE on Friday our economists believe it comes in a little soft at 0.16% mom versus 0.27% previously with subcomponents in last Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s import price data, that feed into this number, on the weaker side. However, the year-over-year rate for core PCE should still tick up from 2.8% to 2.9%.
In Germany, Chancellor Scholz’s vote of confidence today is scheduled to start at 1:00 pm CET. The expected loss will likely clear the path to early elections on February 23. More importantly tomorrow sees the CDU/CSU publish their manifesto at 11.30 CET. According to current polls the CDU is likely to lead the next government, and the manifesto could give clearer signals on their economic policy priorities, even if the coalition agreement after the elections could result in policy compromises. The key question is whether the CDU will formally signal an openness to reforming the debt brake at this stage. Recently signalled openness by Merz to discuss reforms might just be intended to create optionality for potential compromises in coalition talks. However, a leaked draft of the CDU election manifesto late last week saw a continued commitment to the debt brake which at this stage is not unexpected and corroborates what our economists expect.
Staying at the centre of Europe, the Moody’s downgrade of France late on Friday night to Aa3 from Aa2 with a stable outlook was unscheduled and will surprise many when European markets reopen this morning. Their commentary on future deficits is quite damning but the fact that it’s a stable outlook for now, and that this just brings the rating in line with S&P and Fitch, will likely mean that this is more headline grabbing than massively market moving for now. OAT futures are only a little lower in Asia trading. France’s new Prime Minister Francois Bayrou will meet with far-right leader Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella (head of National Rally) at 9am CET this morning to start the process of agreeing a budget. So we may see some headlines post the meeting. For all the rest of the week’s events, see the full day-by-day week ahead at the end as per usual.
Asian equity markets are falling this morning with Chinese stocks weak after disappointing retail sales data (more below). As I check my screens, the Hang Seng (-0.75%) and the CSI (-0.51%) are lower with the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.56%) and the Nikkei (-0.18%) also dipping. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-0.39%) has erased its opening gains following the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol over the weekend. In overnight trading, US equity futures are flat with 10yr UST -1.5bps lower.
Coming back to China retail sales unexpectedly slowed in November, rising +3.0% y/y (v/s +5.0% expected) and marking a sharp slowdown from the +4.8% growth in October. November industrial production rose by +5.4% from a year ago, accelerating from a climb of +5.3% in the prior month and in line with expectations. Fixed asset investment (Ex rural), reported on a year-to-date basis, rose by +3.3% through November on an annual basis, missing the forecast of 3.5%. The figure had risen by +3.4% in the period from January to October. However, new-home prices “only” fell -0.2%, the smallest decrease in 17 months, indicating a fragile stabilisation in China’s real estate market. Values of used homes dropped -0.35%, the least since May 2023. Yields on 10yr Chinese government bonds are -5.1bps lower, trading at a record low of 1.72% with longer-tenor yields also tumbling.
Looking back at last week now, markets struggled to keep up their momentum thanks to the combination of underwhelming data and an ECB decision that whilst dovish was less so than many hoped for. That meant risk assets slipped back, with the S&P 500 falling -0.64% last week (-0.003% Friday to be very precise), whilst the STOXX 600 fell -0.77% (-0.53% Friday). In fact for both indices, the moves ended a run of three consecutive weekly gains, although Japan was a relative outperformer as the Nikkei rose +0.97% (-0.95% Friday). In a remarkable metric of the weakening breadth of momentum in US equities, Friday marked the tenth session in a row that more stocks fell than rose within the S&P 500, the longest such run since 1996.
US inflation data didn’t really help matters, as it raised fears that inflation might be proving sticky above the Fed’s target. To be fair, it wasn’t so bad as to prevent a December rate cut in investors’ eyes, but the longer-term trends were of concern. Indeed, US monthly core CPI has been running at +0.3% for four consecutive months, so it doesn’t look like a temporary blip anymore, and the 3m annualised pace of core CPI now stands at +3.7%. In the meantime, headline PPI inflation also surprised on the upside, with the year-on-year rate moving up to +3.0% for the first time since early 2023. As we mentioned in the core PCE preview above, some of the sub components were weak but we’re about to enter the more seasonally unfavourable H1 period for US inflation so there are concerns that inflation hasn’t behaved well enough in the seasonally dovish H2 period this year.
Concerns about the inflation outlook contributed to a selloff among US Treasuries last week, with the 10yr yield up +24.4bps last week to 4.40% (+6.9bps Friday). That’s its biggest weekly jump since October 2023, and the 2yr yield was also up +14.2bps (+5.4bps Friday) to 4.25%. Over in Europe, government bond yields also moved higher after the ECB’s latest decision. They cut rates by 25bps as expected, but there was some disappointment among investors that the tone wasn’t more dovish, as President Lagarde described inflation risks as “two-sided”. In fact yields on 10yr Italian BTPs were up +20.0bps (+4.3bps Friday), in their biggest weekly jump since July 2023. And yields on 10yr bunds were up +15.0bps (+5.2bps Friday) in their biggest rise since March.
Although equities and bonds both struggled last week, there was a stronger performance among several commodities. For instance, Brent crude oil prices rose +4.74% (+1.47% Friday) to $74.49/bbl, and gold prices were up +0.56% (-1.42% Friday) to $2,648/oz. Meanwhile in the FX space, it was another good week for the US Dollar, with the dollar index moving up for the 10th time in the last 11 weeks.
2B) EUROPEAN REPORT
epid risk tone weighs on European indices, DXY flat ahead of US PMIs – Newsquawk US Market Open
Monday, Dec 16, 2024 – 06:12 AM
European bourses are mostly lower; US futures are modestly in the green.
DXY is flat, and GBP strengthens post-PMI while the JPY lags a touch.
EGBs softer with OATs underperforming slightly post-Moody’s downgrade, PMIs in focus.
Crude slips amid a tepid risk tone, metals largely contained.
Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs, ECB’s Schnabel and BoC’s Macklem.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses began the European session on a modestly mixed footing, with indices generally trading on either side of the unchanged mark. As the morning progressed, sentiment slipped a touch to display a slightly negative picture in Europe. Today’s EZ PMIs strengthens the case for further ECB easing, but had little impact on the complex.
European sectors hold a strong negative bias, with a clear defensive tilt given the risk tone. Healthcare takes the top spot, after heavyweight Novo Nordisk (+1.9%) gains after it announced regulatory approval for Catalent deal. Autos parks itself at the foot of the pile, weighed on by losses in Porsche SE (-1.7%) after the automaker withdrew guidance.
US equity futures are very modestly on a firmer footing, with sentiment a little better vs in Europe. The NQ marginally outperforms vs peers.
DXY is flat and has been trading within a very tight 106.75-92 range for much of the European morning. As it stands the index currently trades towards the bottom end of Friday’s 106.71-107.18 range; and quite a bit away from its 21 DMA at 106.47. US Flash PMIs due later.
EUR is flat vs the Dollar, with price action fairly choppy as traders react to a slew the EZ PMI metrics dotted throughout the morning. ECB President Lagarde spoke today, with her commentary very much in-fitting with her remarks made at her press conference. EUR/USD traded choppily to the French figures, but ultimately edged a little higher on the German release. Since, the upside has been pared to reside around 1.05.
JPY is essentially flat, but is the G10 laggard thus far. Overnight, the Japanese PMI release showed manufacturing rebounding and services improving. USD/JPY sits in a very tight 153.31-96 range, a touch above Friday’s 153.79.
GBP is on a stronger footing, in reaction to the region’s PMI release which saw the Services figure above expectations and further into expansionary territory, while Manufacturing was a touch softer. Cable currently trades at the top end of today’s 1.2609-72 range, with today’s peak coinciding with its 21 DMA at 1.2670.
Antipodeans are marginally firmer vs the Dollar; the Kiwi outperforms vs the Aussie. AUD currently trades at the mid-point of a 0.6348-82 range, and just within Friday’s confines. NZD/USD on the other hand, has topped the best from Friday and currently trades just off the day’s best at 0.5786.
Norges Bank said it is to purchase NOK and sell foreign currency to fund transfers to the government for FY24. This helped to strengthen the NOK, with EUR/NOK slipping from 11.7440 to 11.7130 over the course of eight minutes; thereafter, extended to a session low of 11.7030 before paring almost the entire move.
S&P affirmed Mexico “BBB” foreign currency and “BBB+” local currency long-term rating; Outlook remains Stable.
Brazilian President Lula has been discharged from the hospital and has recovered well and can resume normal work activities but is to avoid long-haul flights, according to the medical team.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1882 vs exp. 7.2769 (prev. 7.1876)
USTs are rangebound in a tight 109-27+ to 109-31+ band ahead of Flash PMIs from the US but with the focus firmly on Wednesday’s FOMC. Given contained action for the benchmark yields are also relatively steady but are lower across the curve, which itself is marginally flatter.
Bunds are pressured, but yet to deviate significantly from the unchanged mark in a tight 134.43-73 band. PMIs sparked modest two way action with the net read being bearish as the German economy fares better than expected in some areas. Into the EZ-wide release, Bunds edged a little higher but the poor manufacturing situation saw Bunds pare back those gains. As it stands, Bunds reside just in the red as the dust settles post-PMIs and remarks from ECB speakers thus far are yet to move the dial; ahead, the often influential Schnabel is scheduled.
OATs are softer and moved in tandem with EGBs on the German metrics after being relatively unreactive to their own PMIs which focused firmly on political uncertainty. As a reminder, and weighing, Moody’s downgraded France a notch with the outlook stable, due to increased political uncertainty and a low probability that the gov’t will succeed in reducing the deficit.
Gilts are a touch firmer but little changed overall into the UK Flash PMI release, which was mixed but in a delayed reaction weighed on Gilts, given services strength and inflationary internals, pressuring them from a 94.50 high back towards but not testing earlier 94.24 lows.
WTI and Brent began the session modestly in the red before slipping further as the European session got underway given the tepid risk tone for the region. Brent’Feb 2025 sits just shy of USD 74/bbl.
Gold is firmer and at the top-end of parameters for today. XAU found itself under pressure in APAC trade and slipped to a USD 2643/oz base before bouncing back and residing at USD 2662/oz highs.
Base metals are mostly on the back foot, given the risk tone; Copper is a little more contained, not really deriving any direction from the morning’s PMIs or before than from China activity data and commentary.
Marathon’s Detroit refinery (140k BPD) union workers voted to ratify a pay deal following a three-month strike, according to a union post on X.
Damage to two tankers in the Black Sea caused an oil products spill, according to Interfax.
Nigeria’s maritime agency reported an oil spill at the Shell loading terminal in Nigeria’s Delta region after a pipeline ruptured, according to Reuters.
Libya’s NOC declared force majeure at its Zawiya facility following clashes, according to Bloomberg.
Nornickel CEO Potanin said the company will move to positive free cash flow in 2025 and, until then, shareholders will need to be patient with dividends, according to Russian media RBC.
Some Japanese aluminium buyers agree to a January-March premium of USD 228/t, +30% from the current quarter, according to Reuters sources.
EU HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Dec) 45.2 vs. Exp. 45.0 (Prev. 45.2); HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Dec) 49.5 vs. Exp. 48.1 (Prev. 48.3); HCOB Services Flash PMI (Dec) 51.4 vs. Exp. 49.4 (Prev. 49.5)
EU Wages In Euro Zone (Q3) 4.4% (Prev. 4.5%, Rev. 4.9%); Labour Costs YY (Q3) 4.6% (Prev. 4.7%, Rev. 5.2%)
French HCOB Services Flash PMI (Dec) 48.2 vs. Exp. 46.5 (Prev. 46.9); HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Dec) 46.7 vs. Exp. 45.8 (Prev. 45.9); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Dec) 41.9 vs. Exp. 43.0 (Prev. 43.1)
German HCOB Services Flash PMI (Dec) 51.0 vs. Exp. 49.3 (Prev. 49.3); HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Dec) 47.8 vs. Exp. 48.0 (Prev. 47.2); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Dec) 42.5 vs. Exp. 43.2 (Prev. 43.0)
UK Flash Services PMI (Dec) 51.4 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 50.8); Flash Composite PMI (Dec) 50.5 (Prev. 50.5); Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 47.3 vs exp. 48.2 (Prev. 48.0)
UK Rightmove House Prices (Dec) M/M: -1.7% (Prev. –1.4%); Y/Y 1.4% (Prev. 1.2%).
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
Moody’s cut France’s rating to “Aa3” from “Aa2”, outlook stable, in an unscheduled rating revision, citing political fragmentation. Moody’s said its view is that France’s public finances will be substantially weakened over the coming years. The agency noted that France’s political fragmentation is more likely to impede meaningful fiscal consolidation and said there is now a very low probability that the next French government will sustainably reduce the size of fiscal deficits beyond next year. However, France’s local- and foreign-currency ceilings remain unchanged at AAA, according to Moody’s.
ECB Holzmann said it would be wrong to cut rates just to help the economy, according to Reuters.
ECB’s Lagarde says more rate cuts are to come and the direction of travel is clear, via Bloomberg; risks around inflation are two sided. “The ECB is also moving through its monetary policy cycle, and we are now at a stage where the darkest days of winter look to be behind us, and we can start to look forward instead.”
ECB’s de Guindos says “our confidence that inflation will converge to target in 2025 is reflected in our monetary policy”. US tariff increases could result in inflationary pressures.
EU reportedly presses for new powers to combat threat of Chinese import surge and amid fears Brussels will struggle to fight back in a global trade war, according to FT.
Norges Bank to purchase NOK and sell foreign currency to fund transfers to the government for FY24.
SNB has adjusted the remuneration of sight deposits, lowers the threshold factor from 22 to 20 as of 1st February 2025.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US DHHS nominee (under President-elect Trump) RFK Jr. is to attempt to win over the Senate by playing down the vaccine topic and sticking to Trump’s messaging, via WSJ citing sources
Tesla (TSLA) has raised the price of the Model S to USD 79,990 from USD 74,990 in the US and the price of the Model S Plaid to USD 94,990 from USD 89,990, according to its website.
Meta (META) has urged the California Attorney General to stop OpenAI (MSFT) from becoming for-profit, according to WSJ.
Nasdaq announced that Palantir Technologies (PLTR), MicroStrategy (MSTR), and Axon Enterprise (AXON) will be added to the index, while Illumina (ILMN), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), and Moderna (MRNA) will be removed as part of the annual reconstitution of the Nasdaq-100 Index, which will become effective prior to market open on Monday, December 23rd, according to Reuters.
WSJ’s Timiraos writes, ahead of this week’s FOMC, “Investors widely expect a third-in-a-row rate cut this week. Officials are ready to slow—or even stop—lowering rates after that.”
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
“Progress in the negotiations of the exchange deal and may be completed after the Jewish holidays at the end of this month”, according to Al Jazeera citing an informed source via Israeli press.
US President-elect Trump and Israeli PM discussed the Gaza hostage deal bid and Syria on Sunday, according to Reuters.
Israeli PM Netanyahu’s government approved a plan to expand settlements on Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The statement said Netanyahu acted “in light of the war and the new front facing Syria” and out of a desire to double the Israeli population on the Golan, according to Reuters.
Russia is pulling back its military in Syria but is not withdrawing from its main military bases, Syrian sources say, according to Reuters.
Trump’s Middle East envoy has met with the Saudi crown prince, according to Axios.
“Syrian media: Strong explosions in the countryside of Tartous and Latakia resulting from an Israeli attack” according to Asharq News. Note: Russia has two bases in Syria – a naval base in Tartous and the Khmeimim Air Base near the port city of Latakia..
“US sources to Alarabiya English: US army carried out strikes against Houthi sites in Yemen”, according to Al Arabiya.
US-CHINA
US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the Treasury continues to warn China about the potential for bank sanctions over transactions aiding Russia’s war effort in Ukraine and will not rule out sanctions on Chinese banks. She noted that the largest Chinese banks are wary of the consequences. Yellen also said the US aims to reduce Russia’s energy revenues, with options such as lowering the oil price cap and imposing more sanctions on ‘dark fleet’ tankers being considered. She emphasised the need for clear communication channels at all levels between the US and China, stating that leader-to-leader discussions alone are insufficient. Yellen added that the next US Treasury Secretary is likely to continue pushing back on currency manipulation if evidence is found.
OTHER
Russian President Putin says “is concerned about US development and deployment of short and medium-range missiles”; “we are not brandishing nuclear weapons, it a policy of nuclear deterrence”.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin made a new ATH overnight, just above USD 106k, but has since pared a touch to currently trade around USD 104.5k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks saw an uninspiring start to the week following the mixed session on Wall Street on Friday and ahead of this week’s risk events including the final FOMC, BoJ, and BoE meetings of the year.
ASX 200 saw gold miners pressured by the recent pullback of the yellow metal towards USD 2,650/oz levels, with sentiment also weighed on by the downticks in prelim. Aussie PMIs.
Nikkei 225 swung between modest positive and negative territory throughout the session as the index oscillated the 39,500 level, whilst the Japanese Flash PMI highlighted “stubborn inflation” with “anecdotal evidence placing particular emphasis on the impact of the weakness of the yen in relation to inputs sourced from abroad.”
KOSPI conformed to the broader risk tone with little sustained move after South Korean MPs successfully voted to impeach President Yoon in their second attempt.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp fluctuated between modest gains and losses with little initial reaction seen to the Chinese activity data, which saw a marked miss in Retail Sales whilst Industrial Output saw a modest surprise uptick. Furthermore, Chinese markets failed to garner much support from weekend reports that China has room to further cut the RRR, according to PBoC officials on Saturday via CCTV.
SOUTH KOREAN NEWS
South Korean MPs have successfully voted to impeach President Yoon in their second attempt, amid backlash following his brief move to impose martial law, according to BBC. Yoon was suspended from official duties at 19:24 local time on Saturday while PM Han is to continue as acting president, according to Yonhap.
South Korea’s acting president Han vowed to leave no vacuum in state affairs, build a solid security posture, and ensure the cabinet works hard to maintain trust with the US, Japan, and other partners. He also pledged efforts to operate financial and forex markets smoothly, according to Yonhap. Acting President Han said the country will maintain preparedness to prevent North Korea from stirring up provocations, secure national interests ahead of the new US administration, and prioritise national security above all else, according to News1 and Yonhap.
South Korea’s opposition leader Lee Jae-myung said the party has decided not to proceed with the impeachment of acting president Han, according to Reuters.
Bank of Korea stated it is necessary to respond more actively to the economic impact compared with past impeachment periods, given heightened challenges in external conditions. It also said it will use all available policy instruments, in conjunction with the government, to respond to and avert escalation of volatility in financial and forex markets, according to Reuters.
South Korea’s Finance Minister said the government will continue to swiftly deploy market-stabilising measures as needed, seek more support measures for vulnerable sectors, and actively communicate with parliament to keep the economy stable. The minister also confirmed that the bi-annual economic policy plan will be announced before the end of the year, according to Reuters.
South Korea’s financial regulator said it will expand market-stabilising funds if needed to boost liquidity in bond and short-term money markets and expects financial markets to stabilise as recent political events are temporary shocks, according to Reuters.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
IDC expects China’s smartphone shipments to increase to 289mln in 2025, +1.6% Y/Y
China has room to further cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), according to PBoC officials on Saturday via CCTV.
China’s Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission deputy director said the country’s GDP is expected to grow by about 5% this year, with foreign exchange reserves remaining above USD 3.2tln. He added that China’s contribution to global economic growth is expected to be close to 30% and that employment and prices in China are expected to remain stable, according to Reuters.
Chinese Stats Bureau stated that China is on track to achieve key economic targets in 2024, but more efforts are needed to promote continued economic recovery in 2025. It added the trend of recovery in consumption remained unchanged and that more policies would be implemented to expand domestic demand. It noted that while new policies had gained more traction, the external situation had become more complex and severe. The Bureau expects further improvement in the property market, emphasises the need to stabilise employment and increase incomes to boost consumption capacity, and anticipates that China’s CPI will maintain modest increases. It also noted that China’s economy is generally stable in November and sees increasing positive changes, according to Reuters.
China Financial and Economic Affairs Commission says China will increase the size of government bonds, including local special bonds, in 2025, via Xinhua. Will promote stable household income growth next year through increasing direct fiscal support to consumers and improving social security. Will implement “appropriately loose” monetary policy to effective lower interest rate on local government debt. China still has big room for investment.
PBoC injected CNY 753.1bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.50%.
Moody’s raised China’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.2% from 4.0%, according to Reuters.
The US Treasury has told Nippon Steel (5401 JT) that the panel vetting its proposed acquisition of US Steel (X) has not reached a consensus on how to mitigate security risks, according to the FT.
New Zealand NZIER Consensus Forecasts show that the economic growth outlook remains broadly unchanged relative to the previous release; GDP forecasts continue to suggest sluggish growth in the year to March 2025 before picking up to 2.2% in the following year.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Retail Sales YY (Nov) 3.0% vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 4.8%)
Chinese Industrial Output YY (Nov) 5.4% vs. Exp. 5.3% (Prev. 5.3%)
Chinese Urban Investment (YTD)YY (Nov) 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%)
Chinese Surveyed Jobless Rate (Nov): 5.0% vs Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 5.0%)
Chinese FDI (YTD) (Nov) -27.9% (Prev. -29.8%)
Australian Manufacturing PMI Prelim (Dec) 48.2 (Prev. 49.4)
Australian Services PMI Prelim (Dec) 50.4 (Prev. 50.5)
Australian Composite PMI Prelim (Dec) 49.9 (Prev. 50.2)
New Zealand Food Price Index (Nov) -0.1% (Prev. -0.9%)
South Korean Trade Balance Revised (Nov) 5.59B (Prev. 5.61B)
South Korean Import Growth Revised (Nov) -2.4% (Prev. -2.4%)
South Korean Export Growth Revised (Nov) 1.4% (Prev. 1.4%)
Indian HSBC Composite PMI (Dec) 60.7 vs Exp. 58.8 (Prev. 58.6)
Indian HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 57.4 vs Exp. 56.9 (Prev. 56.5)
Indian HSBC Services PMI (Dec) 60.8 vs Exp. 58.9 (Prev. 58.4)
Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Oct) 5.6% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. -4.8%)
Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Oct) 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. -0.7%)
Japanese JibunBK Services PMI Flash SA (Dec) 51.4 (Prev. 50.5)
Japanese JibunBK Manufacturing PMI Flash SA (Dec) 49.5 (Prev. 49.0)
Japanese JibunBK Composite Op Flash SA (Dec) 50.8 (Prev. 50.1): The release noted “Stubborn inflation held back a stronger expansion of the Japanese private sector in December. Average input prices rose markedly again, and at the steepest rate for four months, with anecdotal evidence placing particular emphasis on the impact of the weakness of the yen in relation to inputs sourced from abroad. As such, the pace of selling price inflation also quickened on the month and was the fastest since May.”
2C ASIAN REPORT
APAC stocks lower, EUR unfazed after Moody’s downgrades France ahead of EZ PMIs – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Monday, Dec 16, 2024 – 01:48 AM
APAC stocks saw an uninspiring start to the week following the mixed session on Wall Street on Friday and ahead of this week’s risk events including the final FOMC, BoJ, and BoE meetings of the year.
Moody’s cut France’s rating to “Aa3” from “Aa2”, outlook stable, in an unscheduled rating revision, citing political fragmentation.
South Korean MPs have successfully voted to impeach President Yoon in their second attempt. Yoon was suspended from official duties on Saturday while PM Han is to continue as acting president, according to Yonhap.
Bitcoin surged to fresh all-time highs above USD 106,000 and propped up the broader crypto market, with Ethereum rising above USD 4,000.
Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK, US Flash PMIs, EZ Labour Costs, ECB President Lagarde, de Guindos, Schnabel, and BoC’s Macklem.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks were mixed on Friday with notable outperformance in the Nasdaq as the Tech sector was supported by a strong earnings report from Broadcom (AVGO), which rallied 24%.
Consumer Discretionary also performed well amid continued upside in Tesla (TSLA) shares while other sectors were flat or in the red, with underperformance in Communication Services, Materials and Energy.
SPX U/C at 6,051, NDX +0.76% at 21,780, DJI -0.20% at 43,828, RUT -0.60% at 2,347.
Tesla (TSLA) has raised the price of the Model S to USD 79,990 from USD 74,990 in the US and the price of the Model S Plaid to USD 94,990 from USD 89,990, according to its website.
Meta (META) has urged the California Attorney General to stop OpenAI (MSFT) from becoming for-profit, according to WSJ.
Nasdaq announced that Palantir Technologies (PLTR), MicroStrategy (MSTR), and Axon Enterprise (AXON) will be added to the index, while Illumina (ILMN), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), and Moderna (MRNA) will be removed as part of the annual reconstitution of the Nasdaq-100 Index, which will become effective prior to market open on Monday, December 23rd, according to Reuters.
US to empower companies like Google (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) to act as gatekeepers for access to AI chips, via Reuters citing sources.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks saw an uninspiring start to the week following the mixed session on Wall Street on Friday and ahead of this week’s risk events including the final FOMC, BoJ, and BoE meetings of the year.
ASX 200 saw gold miners pressured by the recent pullback of the yellow metal towards USD 2,650/oz levels, with sentiment also weighed on by the downticks in prelim. Aussie PMIs.
Nikkei 225 swung between modest positive and negative territory throughout the session as the index oscillated the 39,500 level, whilst the Japanese Flash PMI highlighted “stubborn inflation” with “anecdotal evidence placing particular emphasis on the impact of the weakness of the yen in relation to inputs sourced from abroad.”
KOSPI conformed to the broader risk tone with little sustained move after South Korean MPs successfully voted to impeach President Yoon in their second attempt.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp fluctuated between modest gains and losses with little initial reaction seen to the Chinese activity data, which saw a marked miss in Retail Sales whilst Industrial Output saw a modest surprise uptick. Furthermore, Chinese markets failed to garner much support from weekend reports that China has room to further cut the RRR, according to PBoC officials on Saturday via CCTV.
US equity futures held a modest positive bias, albeit with price action limited ahead of the FOMC and Fed Chair Powell’s presser on Wednesday.
European equity futures are indicative of a flat cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after cash closed flat on Friday.
FX
DXY saw little action as the index resided within a narrow 106.81-89 range ahead of this week’s risk events. For reference, Friday’s range was 106.72-107.18.
EUR/USD was modestly firmer and unfazed by Moody’s unscheduled downgrade of France’s credit rating, with the pair back on a 1.0500 handle as it tested levels near Friday’s 1.0524 high, with the 21 DMA at 1.0525 and the 12th December peak at 1.0530.
GBP/USD held an upward bias after Friday’s fall from 1.2681 highs with traders looking ahead to the BoE announcement with expectations for the MPC to hold the Base Rate at 4.75%.
USD/JPY was on a firmer footing as APAC players reacted to the rise in US yields on Friday, with USD/JPY finding overnight resistance at 153.97 (vs 153.33 low) and with expectations leaning towards the BoJ maintaining rates this week, albeit contingent on the FOMC’s aftermath.
Antipodeans held a firmer bias with an uptick in Chinese Industrial Output supportive for the currencies, whilst the Chinese Stats Bureau said the economy was generally stable in November and sees increasing positive changes.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1882 vs exp. 7.2769 (prev. 7.1876)
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures were flat in APAC trade after the continued pressure and bear-steepening on Friday with attention turning to the Federal Reserve rate decision and Summary of Economic projections this Wednesday.
Bund futures fluctuated on either side of 134.50 in relatively uneventful trade, whilst focus turns to French debt following Moody’s surprise rating downgrade of France.
10yr JGB futures played catch-up to some of Friday’s price action across Western counterparts with the focus for Japanese debt traders turning to the FOMC ahead of the BoJ.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures were subdued with price action in fitting with the broader risk tone, whilst prices were unfazed by constructive commentary from China’s Stats Bureau.
Spot gold briefly dipped under the USD 2,650/oz level before regaining some composure, albeit within tight ranges ahead of this week’s risk events. For reference, spot gold on Friday fell under its 50 DMA (at USD 2,670/oz today).
Copper futures were lacklustre amid the broader market risk tone but with downside somewhat limited by the resilient Chinese Industrial Output data and alongside constructive commentary from China’s Stats Bureau.
Marathon’s Detroit refinery (140k BPD) union workers voted to ratify a pay deal following a three-month strike, according to a union post on X.
Damage to two tankers in the Black Sea caused an oil products spill, according to Interfax.
Nigeria’s maritime agency reported an oil spill at the Shell loading terminal in Nigeria’s Delta region after a pipeline ruptured, according to Reuters.
Libya’s NOC declared force majeure at its Zawiya facility following clashes, according to Bloomberg.
Nornickel CEO Potanin said the company will move to positive free cash flow in 2025 and, until then, shareholders will need to be patient with dividends, according to Russian media RBC.
Some Japanese aluminium buyers agree to a January-March premium of USD 228/t, +30% from the current quarter, according to Reuters sources.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin surged to fresh all-time highs above USD 106,000 and in turn propped up the broader crypto market, with Ethereum rising above USD 4,000. The market has since pulled back with Bitcoin back under USD 105,000.
SOUTH KOREAN NEWS
South Korean MPs have successfully voted to impeach President Yoon in their second attempt, amid backlash following his brief move to impose martial law, according to BBC. Yoon was suspended from official duties at 19:24 local time on Saturday while PM Han is to continue as acting president, according to Yonhap.
South Korea’s acting president Han vowed to leave no vacuum in state affairs, build a solid security posture, and ensure the cabinet works hard to maintain trust with the US, Japan, and other partners. He also pledged efforts to operate financial and forex markets smoothly, according to Yonhap. Acting President Han said the country will maintain preparedness to prevent North Korea from stirring up provocations, secure national interests ahead of the new US administration, and prioritise national security above all else, according to News1 and Yonhap.
South Korea’s opposition leader Lee Jae-myung said the party has decided not to proceed with the impeachment of acting president Han, according to Reuters.
Bank of Korea stated it is necessary to respond more actively to the economic impact compared with past impeachment periods, given heightened challenges in external conditions. It also said it will use all available policy instruments, in conjunction with the government, to respond to and avert escalation of volatility in financial and forex markets, according to Reuters.
South Korea’s Finance Minister said the government will continue to swiftly deploy market-stabilising measures as needed, seek more support measures for vulnerable sectors, and actively communicate with parliament to keep the economy stable. The minister also confirmed that the bi-annual economic policy plan will be announced before the end of the year, according to Reuters.
South Korea’s financial regulator said it will expand market-stabilising funds if needed to boost liquidity in bond and short-term money markets and expects financial markets to stabilise as recent political events are temporary shocks, according to Reuters.
OTHER NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China has room to further cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), according to PBoC officials on Saturday via CCTV.
China’s Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission deputy director said the country’s GDP is expected to grow by about 5% this year, with foreign exchange reserves remaining above USD 3.2tln. He added that China’s contribution to global economic growth is expected to be close to 30% and that employment and prices in China are expected to remain stable, according to Reuters.
Chinese Stats Bureau stated that China is on track to achieve key economic targets in 2024, but more efforts are needed to promote continued economic recovery in 2025. It added the trend of recovery in consumption remained unchanged and that more policies would be implemented to expand domestic demand. It noted that while new policies had gained more traction, the external situation had become more complex and severe. The Bureau expects further improvement in the property market, emphasises the need to stabilise employment and increase incomes to boost consumption capacity, and anticipates that China’s CPI will maintain modest increases. It also noted that China’s economy is generally stable in November and sees increasing positive changes, according to Reuters.
PBoC injected CNY 753.1bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.50%.
Moody’s raised China’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.2% from 4.0%, according to Reuters.
The US Treasury has told Nippon Steel (5401 JT) that the panel vetting its proposed acquisition of US Steel (X) has not reached a consensus on how to mitigate security risks, according to the FT.
New Zealand NZIER Consensus Forecasts show that the economic growth outlook remains broadly unchanged relative to the previous release; GDP forecasts continue to suggest sluggish growth in the year to March 2025 before picking up to 2.2% in the following year.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Retail Sales YY (Nov) 3.0% vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 4.8%)
Chinese Industrial Output YY (Nov) 5.4% vs. Exp. 5.3% (Prev. 5.3%)
Chinese Urban Investment (YTD)YY (Nov) 3.3% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%)
Chinese Surveyed Jobless Rate (Nov): 5.0% vs Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 5.0%)
Chinese FDI (YTD) (Nov) -27.9% (Prev. -29.8%)
Australian Manufacturing PMI Prelim (Dec) 48.2 (Prev. 49.4)
Australian Services PMI Prelim (Dec) 50.4 (Prev. 50.5)
Australian Composite PMI Prelim (Dec) 49.9 (Prev. 50.2)
New Zealand Food Price Index (Nov) -0.1% (Prev. -0.9%)
South Korean Trade Balance Revised (Nov) 5.59B (Prev. 5.61B)
South Korean Import Growth Revised (Nov) -2.4% (Prev. -2.4%)
South Korean Export Growth Revised (Nov) 1.4% (Prev. 1.4%)
Indian HSBC Composite PMI (Dec) 60.7 vs Exp. 58.8 (Prev. 58.6)
Indian HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 57.4 vs Exp. 56.9 (Prev. 56.5)
Indian HSBC Services PMI (Dec) 60.8 vs Exp. 58.9 (Prev. 58.4)
Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Oct) 5.6% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. -4.8%)
Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Oct) 2.1% vs. Exp. 1.2% (Prev. -0.7%)
Japanese JibunBK Services PMI Flash SA (Dec) 51.4 (Prev. 50.5)
Japanese JibunBK Manufacturing PMI Flash SA (Dec) 49.5 (Prev. 49.0)
Japanese JibunBK Composite Op Flash SA (Dec) 50.8 (Prev. 50.1): The release noted “Stubborn inflation held back a stronger expansion of the Japanese private sector in December. Average input prices rose markedly again, and at the steepest rate for four months, with anecdotal evidence placing particular emphasis on the impact of the weakness of the yen in relation to inputs sourced from abroad. As such, the pace of selling price inflation also quickened on the month and was the fastest since May.”.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
“Progress in the negotiations of the exchange deal and may be completed after the Jewish holidays at the end of this month”, according to Al Jazeera citing an informed source via Israeli press.
Israeli estimates indicate that a deal with Hamas can be reached within a month, according to Sky News Arabia citing Israel’s Channel 12.
US President-elect Trump and Israeli PM discussed the Gaza hostage deal bid and Syria on Sunday, according to Reuters.
Israeli PM Netanyahu’s government approved a plan to expand settlements on Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The statement said Netanyahu acted “in light of the war and the new front facing Syria” and out of a desire to double the Israeli population on the Golan, according to Reuters.
Russia is pulling back its military in Syria but is not withdrawing from its main military bases, Syrian sources say, according to Reuters.
Trump’s Middle East envoy has met with the Saudi crown prince, according to Axios.
“Syrian media: Strong explosions in the countryside of Tartous and Latakia resulting from an Israeli attack” according to Asharq News. Note: Russia has two bases in Syria – a naval base in Tartous and the Khmeimim Air Base near the port city of Latakia..
“US sources to Alarabiya English: US army carried out strikes against Houthi sites in Yemen”, according to Al Arabiya.
US-CHINA
US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the Treasury continues to warn China about the potential for bank sanctions over transactions aiding Russia’s war effort in Ukraine and will not rule out sanctions on Chinese banks. She noted that the largest Chinese banks are wary of the consequences. Yellen also said the US aims to reduce Russia’s energy revenues, with options such as lowering the oil price cap and imposing more sanctions on ‘dark fleet’ tankers being considered. She emphasised the need for clear communication channels at all levels between the US and China, stating that leader-to-leader discussions alone are insufficient. Yellen added that the next US Treasury Secretary is likely to continue pushing back on currency manipulation if evidence is found.
The US is preparing rules that would restrict the sale of advanced artificial intelligence chips in certain parts of the world in an attempt to limit China’s ability to access them, according to WSJ citing sources.
OTHER
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Moody’s cut France’s rating to “Aa3” from “Aa2”, outlook stable, in an unscheduled rating revision, citing political fragmentation. Moody’s said its view is that France’s public finances will be substantially weakened over the coming years. The agency noted that France’s political fragmentation is more likely to impede meaningful fiscal consolidation and said there is now a very low probability that the next French government will sustainably reduce the size of fiscal deficits beyond next year. However, France’s local- and foreign-currency ceilings remain unchanged at AAA, according to Moody’s.
ECB Holzmann said it would be wrong to cut rates just to help the economy, according to Reuters.
EU reportedly presses for new powers to combat threat of Chinese import surge and amid fears Brussels will struggle to fight back in a global trade war, according to FT.
DATA RECAP
UK Rightmove House Prices (Dec) M/M: -1.7% (Prev. –1.4%); Y/Y 1.4% (Prev. 1.2%).
LATAM
S&P affirmed Mexico “BBB” foreign currency and “BBB+” local currency long-term rating; Outlook remains stable.
Brazilian President Lula has been discharged from the hospital and has recovered well and can resume normal work activities but is to avoid long-haul flights, according to the medical team.
3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
South Korea in turmoil
South Korean President Impeached Over Martial Law Turmoil
Saturday, Dec 14, 2024 – 09:55 AM
President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea was impeached by a National Assembly vote on Saturday, suspending him from office after he declared a brief emergency martial law earlier this month. The move sparked widespread outrage and plunged the nation into a constitutional crisis. Now, the Constitutional Court must decide whether to reinstate Yoon or formally remove him—a process that could take 180 days.
The National Assembly voted to impeach Yoon, with 204 lawmakers in the 300-member house in favor of the motion and 85 against. Eight votes were declared invalid, while three lawmakers abstained from voting.
The vote comes one week after Yoon survived an impeachment vote last Saturday, capping a week of political turmoil in the country that borders North Korea. This follows Yoon’s declaration of the briefest martial law in South Korean history on December 3, lasting only a few hours, after accusing the opposition party of engaging in ‘anti-state activities.’ Notably, this political turmoil is some of the worst in South Korea since full-scale martial law was declared in the spring of 1980.
Under South Korea’s Constitution, Yoon’s impeachment allows Prime Minister Han Duck-soo to become interim leader.
At a news conference earlier, Park Chan-dae, the opposition leader of the Democratic Party, told reporters: “This is a victory for the South Korean people and for democracy.”
Given that the Constitutional Court will now decide whether to reinstate or remove Yoon, Goldman’s Goohoon Kwon and Andrew Tilton provided clients with the possible transition scenarios last week. That process could take up to six months. Here’s what comes next:
Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, told The Guardian that South Korea’s political turmoil is unlikely to subside even with Yoon’s impeachment: “It is not even the beginning of the end.”
“Opposition leader Lee, who narrowly lost to Yoon in 2022 and is favored to win an election to replace him, is also in legal jeopardy, with a conviction on appeal and other rulings pending that could disqualify him from office,” The Guardian noted.
Easley added, “So before the final race in the polls, there will be a race in the courts.”
Shortly after the impeachment, Yoon said, “Although I am stopping for now, the journey I have walked with the people over the past two and a half years toward the future must never come to a halt. I will never give up.”
Also, the Goldman analysts warned of another scenario that could unfold: “… muddling through in a political gridlock.”
The unfolding political turmoil was enough for the analysts to maintain a below-consensus growth forecast for South Korea of 1.8% in 2025, with “risks increasingly skewed to the downside …”
South Korea’s finance minister and central bank governor are expected to meet on Sunday to discuss the future economic impact of the political turmoil storm.
Bloomberg Economics’ economist Hyosung Kwon provided readers with a summary of today’s events:
“With today’s impeachment vote passing, concerns over a leadership vacuum in South Korea’s policy-making may ease. But it doesn’t mark the end of political uncertainty.”
“The key question now is whether Acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo can effectively navigate the deeply divided political landscape to address the threats from the Trump administration’s trade and foreign policies, while awaiting the Constitutional Court’s ruling.”
The question for market observers is whether Yoon’s impeachment eases political uncertainty and helps stabilize sentiment.
MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY)
Graham Ambrose, managing director of Goldman Sachs’ equity franchise sales team in London, told clients last week that there could be “buying opportunities in Seoul in coming days.”
Yoon’s impeachment should relieve some market uncertainty. However, the focus now shifts to a long waiting period as the Constitutional Court deliberates its decision.
end
3C JAPAN
end
3D. CHINA/TAIWAN/INDO PACIFIC
China/USA
The Kobeissi Letter on X: “China is panicking: Today, China announced that WIDESPREAD economic stimulus is coming in 2025, including raising their deficit. Currently, parts of China’s real estate sector are down -80% from their high and at 2008 levels. Is China entering a recession? (a thread)” / X
ROBERT H
If China is in a recession then many foreign investors will take a bath while they save their local economy. There is a reason why Russia did a major deal on oil with India and not China. Even Russia understands the pitfall of the Chinese real estate market. Especially when the Russian economy is growing rapidly. Soon Russian civilian aircraft will be exported. The difference with the Chinese is that Russian planes are all Russian and not reliant upon Western engines. Sanction lessons were well learnt
China is weakening terribly due to huge real estate collapse. Now Chinese bond yields hit record lows on huge retail sales disapointment . China’s 30 yr bond below that of Japan. Amazing
(zerohedge)
“Dire Situation” – Chinese Bond Yields Hit Record Low On Retail Sales “Big Disappointment”
Monday, Dec 16, 2024 – 08:37 AM
China’s retail sales increased just 3% in November from a year ago, falling short of forecasts for 5% growth by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
The weakening in retail sales was surprising following strong sales of home appliances and cars a month ago thanks to government subsidies.
While sales for those two categories remained strong in November, a number of discretionary goods recorded a slump.
Cosmetics led the decline with a 26% plunge in sales from a year ago, while those of clothing, jewelry, beverages and tobacco and alcohol also decreased.
The data builds on traders’ disappointment last week when Beijing pledged to boost consumption but failed to offer details on fiscal stimulus.
The retail-sales data “is a reflection of the dire situation there and how the stimulus efforts have prioritized optics over delivering meaningful economic improvements,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets in Singapore.
“Even for a tactical recovery, we need more after a series of false starts and the risk of tariffs ahead.”
As The FT reports, Beijing has struggled to boost confidence against the backdrop of a property slowdown, now entering its fourth year, and bouts of deflation.
The government unveiled a series of measures to boost stock markets in late September and to refinance local government debt last month.
Chinese stocks fell on the report and bond yields tumbled to a new record low…
Source: Bloomberg
“The Japanification of China bonds may be inevitable at some point,” said Stephen Miller, a four-decade markets veteran and consultant at GSFM, calling the recent stimulus a sugar hit.
“China’s issues are deep-seated structural issues. You can’t fully rule out the possibility of yields heading toward zero if these issues aren’t addressed,” he said.
“Bond yields at 0% are a possibility,” said George Boubouras, head of research at hedge fund K2 Asset Management Ltd.
He said the central bank will need to take an ‘anything goes’ approach to stimulus to avoid the economy sliding into a Japan-style balance sheet recession.
Indeed, China is already showing partial signs of a balance-sheet recession, said Yingrui Wang, China economist at AXA Investment Managers.
Households and corporations are curbing spending due to their rising debt burden, which has left the central government as a key source of demand, according to Wang.
China’s recent monetary easing pledges point to a continued decline in bond yields until fundamentals in the economy start to recover. Over recent months, the People’s Bank of China appears to have eased its control on bond yields,
“We forecast the 10-year CGB yield to reach around 1.6% by the end of 2025”, she said.
The damage to consumer confidence is deep-rooted and will require substantial effort to repair; China has yet to act decisively to stabilize its property market, although recent months have seen a shift in focus.
The government’s lack of effective action mirrors Japan’s early missteps, risking a prolonged downturn, and with China’s 30Y yield plunging below that of Japan’s, the market is clearly starting to believe the same…
Source: Bloomberg
Beijing hasn’t fully absorbed Japan’s lessons: The lack of decisive fiscal action despite pressure from the property market, local government debt, and declining confidence among consumers could worsen China’s economic challenges.
“The data show that the recovery in domestic demand has remained sluggish, while the stabilization in industrial production was likely due to some order front-loading ahead of US tariffs and is not sustainable,” said Michelle Lam, Greater China economist at Societe Generale SA.
As Mike Shedlock concludes, via MishTalk, facing debt deflation, China’s best bet would be to allow more bankruptcies, write down debt, and strengthen the yuan. But it is highly unlikely to do so.
US hypocrites led by then Fed Chair Ben Bernanke pleaded with Japan to do that, then failed to do so at our turn in the Great Recession.
Lower for longer will suppress the yuan. It’s one way China has of countering Trump’s tariff threats.
But it’s also counterproductive.
Lower for longer did not help Japan, and negative yields helped neither Japan nor the EU.
Unfortunately, the only thing China seems to understand is growth by exports but that means a weaker yuan.
Even more problematic for Beijing, a huge fight with Donald Trump is about a month away…
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
FRANCE
Moody’s cuts France’s rating one notch to Aa3. Should effect the Euro, Monday morning. Greece is now less risky than France
(zerohedge)
Moody’s Cuts France In Surprise Downgrade Amid Mounting Political Chaos
Friday, Dec 13, 2024 – 09:39 PM
Two weeks ago, at the end of November, when many were expecting Moody’s to downgrade France’s Aa2 rating (after it was put on negative outlook in October), the rating agency chickened out as there was still hope that Macron might salvage some of the political chaos engulfing Europe’s second biggest economy, and well aware that telling the truth in Europe is very costly. Alas, after Marine Le Pen toppled Barnier’s government in a dispute over deficit reduction one week ago, Moody’s no longer could pretend that France is anything but a flaming dumpster fire of a political circus, and late after the Friday close, in a downgrade that came outside of Moody’s regular review schedule for France, Moody’s cut its rating of the euro area’s second biggest economy to Aa3 from Aa2, three levels below the maximum rating, and with a “stable outlook”, for now. Moody’s was the last holdout: France has already been cut to equivalent levels by Fitch and S&P.
The downgrade comes hours after President Emmanuel Macron named on Friday veteran centrist politician and early ally Francois Bayrou as his fourth prime minister this year. His predecessor Michel Barnier failed to pass a 2025 budget and was toppled earlier this month by left and right-wing lawmakers opposed to his 60 billion euro belt-tightening push that he had hoped would rein in France’s spiraling fiscal deficit.
The political crisis forced the outgoing government to propose emergency legislation this week to temporarily roll over 2024 spending limits and tax thresholds into next year until a more permanent 2025 budget can be passed.
The decision “reflects our view that the country’s public finances will be substantially weakened over the coming years,” Moody’s said in a statement. “Looking ahead, there is now very low probability that the next government will sustainably reduce the size of fiscal deficits beyond next year.”
“As a result, we forecast that France’s public finances will be materially weaker over the next three years compared to our October 2024 baseline scenario,” it added.
Barnier had intended to cut the budget deficit next year to 5% of economic output from 6.1% this year with a 60 billion euro package of spending cuts and tax hikes. But a majority of lawmakers were opposed to much of the belt-tightening drive and voted a no confidence measure against Barnier’s government, bringing it down.
Bayrou, who has long warned about France’s weak public finances, said on Friday shortly after taking office that he faced a “Himalaya” of a challenge reining in the deficit.
Outgoing Finance Minister Antoine Armand said the downgrade reflects the recent parliamentary developments and uncertainty around the budget. “The nomination of Francois Bayrou as prime minister and the reaffirmed will to reduce the deficit will provide an explicit response,” Armand said in a social media post.
The government’s collapse and the scrapping of France’s 2025 budget added to months of political upheaval that has already hammered business confidence, with the country’s economic outlook steadily deteriorating.
Barnier’s budget foresaw significant belt tightening by historical standards to bring the deficit to 5% of economic output from 6.1% this year. The next government will likely have to pare back those ambitions in order to get support from some of the lawmakers who toppled Barnier, but economists say the final outcome may even be no improvement. Plans to repair public finances were already derailed this year by poor tax revenues as consumer spending and corporate profits disappointed.
The political crisis put French stocks and debt under pressure, pushing the risk premium on French government bonds at one point to their highest level over 12 years, with the yield on French bonds surpassing that of Greece.
*FRANCE 10-YEAR YIELD PREMIUM WIDENS 8BPS, THE MOST SINCE JUNE Congrats, Greece is now less risky than France!
·
131K Views
Ironically, back during the peak European sovereign debt crisis, it was France that was among the countries that came to Greece’s rescue. Alas, nobody in Europe is big enough to rescue France. Expect the EURUSD to tumble when trading reopens on Monday, on its way to parity with the dollar.
END
GERMANY
Now Germany implodes: Government collapses one week after French implosion
(zerohedge)
“The Timing Is Absolutely Terrible”: German Government Collapses Just One Week After French Implosion
Monday, Dec 16, 2024 – 12:25 PM
Europe is disintegrating as legacy political regimes are collapsing over across the world.
Just one week after Marine Le Pen precipitated the collapse of the French government, on Monday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote in the German Parliament on Monday, a defeat that effectively ended the increasingly unpopular government he has led since 2021 and ushered in elections early next year.
German lawmakers voted to dissolve the existing government by a vote of 394 to 207, with 116 abstaining.
The collapse of the government just nine months before elections had been scheduled was an extraordinary moment for Germany, once Europe’s powerhouse but now a laughingstock at the mercy of both China and Russia. This will be only the fourth snap election in the 75 years since the modern state was founded, and it reflected a new era of more fractious and unstable politics in a country long known for durable coalitions built on plodding consensus.
The confidence vote, in the same month that the French government fell, deepens a crisis of leadership in Europe at a time of mounting economic and security challenges. The war in Ukraine has reached a pivotal moment, with Russia set to make decisive territorial gains and perhaps even push on toward Kiev, while president-elect Donald J. Trump is set to take office in the United States. And now, Europe’s largest and second largest economies are in the hands of a caretaker governments, as the continent is sent reeling in a tailspin of chaos and revulsion to the status quo.
Scholz had little choice but to take the unusual step of calling for the confidence vote after his three-party coalition splintered in November, ending months of bitter internal squabbling and leaving him without a parliamentary majority to pass laws or a budget. And now, the political uncertainty could last for months. The elections are expected to be held on Feb. 23, but even if, as expected, his party does not finish first, Scholz would remain in place as a caretaker chancellor until weeks after that. He would step down only after a new coalition forms, which will probably not happen until April or May according to the NYT..
Seven parties will go into the campaign for Parliament with a realistic chance of gaining seats, and some on – especially on the right – are poised for very strong showings, according to polls.
The campaign is likely to be dominated by several issues that have roiled Europe in recent years. Germany and France, traditionally the two most influential countries in the European Union, are mired in debates over how best to revive their struggling economies, breach growing social divides, ease voter anxieties over immigration and buttress national defense.
Meanwhile, the establishment EU partners are looking warily toward Russia, where Putin has escalated threats about the use of nuclear weapons amid Moscow’s war against Ukraine, and where states like Germany have been providing Kiev with long-range missiles to be used deep inside Russia, in the process ensuring that relations with Moscow are abysmal for years to come.
And in typical social-democrat fashion, the leading European politicians have also been vexed by their deteriorating economic relationship with China, which has grown into a formidable competitor for many of their most important industries but has not become the booming consumer market for European products that leaders long envisioned. Instead, China has promptly become the world’s biggest producer of cars, making a mockery of what was once Germany’s most important and profitable industry, and no lies in tatters.
And they are bracing for the start of the new presidential term for Trump, who has threatened a trade war and the end of the United States’ commitment to the NATO alliance that has guaranteed Europe’s security for 75 years.
The combination of challenges has proved politically catastrophic for Europe’s legacy powers. French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday named his fourth prime minister in a year and is under mounting pressure to resign. Macron says he will stay in office and try to repair the deep fissures in his government over the 2025 budget. Scholz’s government faced similar budget challenges, along with growing concerns about how to rebuild the German military in the face of a belligerent Russia and Trump’s criticism of NATO.
As even the liberal NYT admits, it is an inopportune time for Germany to be plunged into a grueling winter election campaign and a political freeze that could last until a new government takes power.
The even more liberal Bloomberg News, made a stunning admission that “Germany’s Economy Is Unraveling Just as Europe Needs It Most”, and notes that “Germany is reaching a point of no return. Business leaders know it, the people in the country feel it, but politicians haven’t come up with answers.”
That has set Europe’s largest economy on a path of decline that threatens to become irreversible.
Following five years of stagnation, Germany’s economy is now 5% smaller than it would have been if the pre-pandemic growth trend had been maintained.
In short, Germany is heading straight for a historic economic and political collapse.
“The timing is absolutely terrible for the E.U. — basically, these multiple crises are hitting the E.U. at the worst possible time, because the bloc’s traditional engine is busy with itself,” Jana Puglierin, of the European Council on Foreign Relations, said, referring to Germany and France.
The war in Ukraine and the need to bolster Germany’s military — and what that will cost — will be among the urgent issues likely to dominate the election campaign, along with the floundering economy, failing infrastructure, immigration and the rise of the political extremes. Badly behind in the polls, Scholz is planning to highlight his caution when supplying Ukraine with weapons, especially sophisticated offensive hardware. Which, of course, is a U-turn to Germany’s legacy position which was literally the opposite, and took advantage of every opportunity to arm Zelensky and deposit more euros into his slush fund.
In any case, Scholz will have to fight hard to persuade voters to give him another chance. For now, it is Mr. Merz, a longtime figure on the political stage, who is widely expected to be the next chancellor, given his party’s strong lead in polls.
The three other mainstream parties are also led by well-known politicians, two of whom held important posts in the government: Christian Lindner, leader of the pro-business Free Democrats, whose falling out with the chancellor helped precipitate the collapse of the coalition; and Robert Habeck, the economic minister and lead candidate for the left-leaning Greens.
But in Germany’s fractious political landscape, no single party is likely to win an outright majority, leading to potentially tricky negotiations to build a coalition more functional and durable than the one that failed.
That necessity probably means that opponents cannot be criticized too heavily because they are all potential coalition partners. But it may also present mainstream parties with difficult decisions about whom they chose to work with.
All of the mainstream parties have said they would refuse to partner with the conservative Alternative for Germany, parts of which are being monitored as a threat to the Constitution by the domestic security services. Nonetheless, the party, which is known as the AfD and is ascendant in the polls with 18 percent approval, continues to gain ground.
As noted at the time, in the closely watched state elections in September, both the AfD and a newer, extreme-left party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, had their best showings ever. But mainstream parties still consider them an anathema, making it hard to form governing coalitions in those states. The results could portend equally messy coalition haggling in Berlin after a national vote, though the political fringes are less popular nationally than they are in those eastern states.
But given the likely vote tally, many political watchers predict a return of the grand coalition of the center between the conservative CDU and the progressive Social Democratic Party, which governed Germany for 12 of the past 20 years.
END
ROMANIA
Romania’s Constitutional Coup Is Meant To Buy More Time For NATO In Ukraine
It was assessed late last month that “The Outcome Of Romania’s Presidential Election Could Spoil The US’ Potential Escalation Plans” if then-frontrunner Calin Georgescu, a populist conservative-nationalist that’s critical of NATO’s proxy war on Russian in Ukraine, had won the second round on 8 December. His first-round victory was annulled by the Constitutional Coup in a move that he condemned as a coup, however, on the pretext that his pre-election support on TikTok might have been due to foreign backing.
Nothing like this has ever happened before. Nobody alleges that the electoral process itself was fraudulent. The only claim is that classified evidence supposedly exists allegedly suggesting that the popularization of Georgescu’s content on TikTok might have been inorganic. When all was said and done, however, more voters still chose him over anyone else. This means that speculative degrees of separation between them and a foreign actor via social media was enough to annual the election.
This is a disturbing precedent that can easily be exploited by the West the next time that a populist conservative-nationalist with “politically incorrect” foreign policy views wins an election. At the time of writing, a redo hasn’t yet been scheduled, but it’s expected after the new pro-Western parliament convenes on 20 December. About that, their elections were held after the first presidential round, but no accusations of foul play followed. This is obviously due to the West receiving its desired result.
It remains unclear who’ll serve as Commander-in-Chief until the next one is elected, but whoever it is, nobody should anticipate them implementing any radical policies like Georgescu’s. Accordingly, more time has been bought for NATO to organize its reportedly planned peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, even if it’s carried out under a non-NATO mandate. Had Georgescu won the second round and been inaugurated later this month, he could have ruled out his country’s participation in this possible plan.
Romania isn’t as indispensable for NATO’s military logistics to Ukraine as Poland is, but it still borders Ukraine’s western and southwestern regions that are of strategic importance for the bloc. Even if Romania wouldn’t directly participate in any such mission, regardless of whether it’s carried out under the peacekeeper pretext, it could still let the alliance’s troops and equipment transit through its territory to Odessa for example. Georgescu, however, could have cut that off and greatly complicated their plans.
Keeping him out of office or at least delaying his victory, if he’s even allowed to run again that is (and the results aren’t annulled again or defrauded like they were in neighboringMoldova), is therefore of supreme Western importance in order to keep their military logistics options open.
It might therefore turn out that all of this meddling was for naught if no such peacekeeping mission follows or if Romania doesn’t play a significant role therein. In any case, that’s the cost that the West was willing to pay simply to keep such options maximally open, thus showing how its leaders really feel about the democratic process. At the end of the day, Western democracy is just a process for legitimizing elite interests, and these same elites sometimes repeat the process until they get their desired result.
An image grab taken from Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV on November 29, 2024, shows Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem delivering a televised speech from an undisclosed location. (Al-Manar / AFP)
BEIRUT — Hezbollah head Naim Qassem says the Lebanese terror group has lost its supply route through Syria following the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad nearly a week ago by a sweeping rebel offensive.
Qassem doesn’t mention Assad by name and says the group cannot make a judgment on Syria’s new ruling power until the country stabilizes.
The Hezbollah chief also says Syria’s new rulers should not recognize neighboring Israel or establish ties with it.
“We hope that this new party in power will see Israel as an enemy and not normalize relations with it,” Qassem says in a televised speech, his first since was toppled Assad following an offensive launched on November 27, the same day that a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect.
END
/IRAN/ISRAEL
It will be a lot easier for Israel to hit Iranian nuclear sites from clear open skies over Syria
(zerohedge)
Trump Team Weighing Options For Preemptive Airstrikes On Iran’s Nuclear Program
Friday, Dec 13, 2024 – 06:00 PM
Just days after the rapid collapse of the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad, and now with Israeli warplanes having complete domination over Syria’s skies for the first time in modern history, the priorities of US and Israeli officials in the region have drastically changed.
Both US and Israeli leaders are now mulling the possibility of striking Iran’s nuclear program, amid several reports in recent weeks saying the Islamic Republic is expanding its program and enriching more nuclear-grade material. Tehran is now much more on the defensive, and could be more desperate to achieve nuclear weapons.
A significant Friday report in The Wall Street Journal says that “President-elect Donald Trump is weighing options for stopping Iran from being able to build a nuclear weapon, including the possibility of preventive airstrikes, a move that would break with the longstanding policy of containing Tehran with diplomacy and sanctions.”
“Trump has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in recent calls that he is concerned about an Iranian nuclear breakout on his watch, two people familiar with their conversations said, signaling he is looking for proposals to prevent that outcome,” the report continues.
“The president-elect wants plans that stop short of igniting a new war, particularly one that could pull in the U.S. military, as strikes on Tehran’s nuclear facilities have the potential put the U.S. and Iran on a collision course.”
Currently the United States still has some 1,000 troops occupying northeast Syria, and they have come under internecine attacks by Iran-backed militias over the recent years. In any broader US-Iran war, these troops would be sitting ducks for attack via Tehran’s proxies in the region.
Trump in his first administration tried but failed to bring the troops home, but deeper entanglement in striking Iran could surely draw these troops into a broader conflict. The Pentagon would in that case likely expand its deployed forces in the region as well.
“Iran has enough highly enriched uranium alone to build four nuclear bombs, making it the only nonnuclear-weapon country to be producing 60% near-weapons-grade fissile material,” WSJ has noted further. “It would take just a few days to convert that stockpile into weapons-grade nuclear fuel.”
Iran has long maintained it develops only peaceful nuclear energy, and there’s little doubt that after the dramatic events unfolding in Syria, and with Hezbollah top leadership largely decimated, Tehran finds itself on a back foot.
Some Israeli and Western officials believe that all of this will make Iranian leaders more desperate to ensure they have a final and ultimate defense against any threats (as in rapidly developing a nuke).
But if Trump were to authorize strikes on Iranian facilities, this would also obviously violate his frequent vows to his voters to not start new wars in the Middle East. The reality is that even ‘limited’ strikes still constitute an act of war. The potential for runaway escalation involving the US, Iran, and Israel would be a much bigger likelihood.
END
SYRIA/ISRAEL/
Israel Sees ‘Opportunity’ For Attacking Iran Nuke Sites With Syria Knocked Out
SATURDAY, DEC 14, 2024 – 02:30 AM
With Syria burning and no longer a threat, Israel’s military said it is currently conducting preparations for “potential strikes” on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Its air force has already been carrying out literally hundreds of raids on Syrian Army bases in the wake of Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow. Israel has complete domination of Syria’s skies, and given that Assad’s anti-air defense missile systems are no longer an issue, this would make it much easier to strike the Islamic Republic of Iran.
According to a Thursday report in The Times of Israel, the IDF “believes that following the weakening of Iranian proxy groups in the Middle East and the dramatic fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, there is an opportunity to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, military officials said Thursday.”
“The Israeli Air Force has therefore continued to increase its readiness and preparations for such potential strikes in Iran,” the report states.
“The IDF also believes that Iran — isolated after the fall of the Assad regime and the weakening of its main proxy group Hezbollah in Lebanon — may push ahead further with its nuclear program and develop a bomb as it scrambles to replace its deterrence,” it adds.
Iran has long maintained it develops only peaceful nuclear energy, and there’s little doubt that after the dramatic events unfolding in Syria, and with Hezbollah top leadership largely decimated, Tehran finds itself on a back foot.
Some Israeli and Western officials believe that all of this will make Iranian leaders more desperate to ensure they have a final and ultimate defense against any threats (as in rapidly developing a nuke).
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have said in a new statement, “The Syrian air defense array is one of the strongest in the Middle East and the blow caused to it is a significant achievement for the Air Force’s superiority in the region.”
Any potential preemptive Israeli attack directly on Iran would however unleash more immense anti-Netanyahu controversy in Israel, at a moment he’s already under fire by hostage victims’ families for his handling of Gaza.
Israel and Hezbollah just achieved a long hoped-for ceasefire in Lebanon, and any attacks on Iran could also open up that front again, at a moment Israel is trying for the safe return of its citizens to northern towns and settlements, which the ceasefire is aimed to achieve.
end
ISRAEL/SYRIA
Julani warns Israeli but those warnings are shunned
(JerusalemPost)
Israel has no more excuses for entering Syria, rebel leader Julani says in first major TV interview
Julani called for the end of all foreign intervention in Syria in the interest of restabilizing and rebuilding the country.
By YUVAL BARNEADECEMBER 14, 2024 17:44Updated: DECEMBER 14, 2024 19:17
Top rebel commander Abu Mohammed al-Julani speaks to a crowd at Ummayad Mosque in Damascus, after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted President Bashar al-Assad, Syria December 8, 2024.(photo credit: REUTERS/MAHMOUD HASSANO)
Julani said, “Israel’s excuses for entering Syria no longer exist. After the Iranians’ departure, there are no more justifications for any foreign intervention in Syria.”
“The exhausted Syrian situation after years of war and conflicts does not allow for entering into any new conflicts.”
He said his priority was reconstruction and stability and not dragging Syria into conflicts that would lead to further destruction.
Julani called on the international community to intervene and take responsibility for preventing escalation and respecting Syrian sovereignty. He stressed that diplomatic solutions are the only way to ensure security and stability, away from any ill-considered military adventures.
Rebel fighters pose as they hold a Syrian opposition flag at the Umayyad Mosque, after rebels seized the capital and ousted Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria December 9, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/AMR ABDALLAH DALSH)
He admonished the Iranian regime for turning the country into an attack platform, which brought significant danger to the Syrian people.
But he stressed that there would be no future enmity, “We were able to end the Iranian presence in Syria, but we do not hold enmity towards the Iranian people. Our problem was with the policies that harmed our country.”
Despite dodging any provocation question about Russia, Julani said that the revolution was an “opportunity to re-evaluate the [Russian] relationship with Syria in a way that serves common interests.”
Although he emphasized that the Russian air force had largely been responsible for targeting Syrian civilians during the civil war.
From revolutionary to statesman
Julani cautioned Syria that reform and change were coming, “The Syrian revolution has triumphed, but Syria should not be led with the mentality of a revolution. There is a need for law and institutions. There is a need to transfer the mentality from the revolution to the state. The next stage is the stage of construction and stability.”
“We are working to meet the basic needs of the Syrians.” He described how the Assad regime had plundered Syria into poverty, “There is an abundance of food, and Assad was systematically depriving the Syrians of it. There is a real tragedy, and we have plans to address these issues until we finish collecting the data.”
He accused the Assad dynasty of building a feudal tax farm designed to extract wealth from its subjects instead of supporting them. “There was a systematic destruction of the agricultural, industrial, and banking sectors. The regime did not build a state, but rather a farm, and the extent of the thefts was large. Documents will be presented to prove this.”
As part of Julani’s plans to “lead Syria with a statesmen’s mentality,” he wants to halt the production and trafficking of captagon, a drug that was massively produced under the Assad regime, as a way of getting around sanctions.
He confirmed that the new administration “will put an end to the production of captagon in Syria,” which had led to accusations of Syria becoming a narco-state.
He also reemphasized his previous commitment to protecting the minority groups of Syria; in particular, he mentioned the Christian and Druze communities who fought against Assad.
Julani differentiated between the Kurdish community and the PKK, a Kurdish terrorist organization, signaling the realignment of the mostly Kurdish SDF with the rest of the Syrian opposition.
Julani confirmed that the Syrian Defense Ministry would be dissolving all armed factions and that all weapons would be under the authority of the Syrian state.
end
SYRIA/ISRAEL/DRUZE
We Are Not Looking For A Fight With Israel: HTS Leader Jolani
Saturday, Dec 14, 2024 – 03:45 PM
Israel has already conducted at least 300 major strikes on Syria since Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) took over Damascus and much of the country, with President Assad having fled to Moscow, where’s he’s been given asylum.
Israeli warplanes have been able to launch attacks with impunity, having decimated airbases, missile storehouses, and even chemical weapons facilities. Israel has finally degraded and destroyed what was once among the most feared anti-air defense system and network in the region (which is why previously Israeli warplanes only launched attacks on Syria from over Lebanese airspace).
Throughout this past week, HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani (who is now reverting to his birth name of Ahmad al-Sharaa) remained noticeably silent on the non-stop Israeli attacks which have kept all of Damascus awake at night and involved low flying Israeli warplanes.
But on Saturday Jolani is seeking to give Israel ‘assurances’ – also as IDF tanks and troops have crossed into Syria and have expanded occupation of more parts of the south. He said his new government has “no intention of confronting Israel.”
“We are not looking to engage in a conflict with Israel and cannot bear such a battle,” Jolani continued, and further pointed out he’s not looking for war with Iran either.
He signaled intent for “no hostilities with the Iranian people” but also called Assad’s ouster “a victory over the dangerous Iranian project in the region.”
He said Syrian state “should not be governed with a revolutionary mindset, and we need laws and institutions [to this end]” – as he pledges to bring stability and has said he won’t let his forces embark on revenge killings.
There have been reports of Sunni Islamist militants targeting Alawite villages in the Latakia or possibly central Syrian countryside, but thus far no evidence of attacks on ethno-religions minorities in Damascus or major cities have emerged.
The Druze community, which is an Islamic offshoot in the south and considered heretical by hardline Sunnis, is deeply fearful and some tribes near Golan are actually seeking Israeli production. The Druze leadership doesn’t trust the jihadists of HTS and are actually petitioning Israel to annex their villages:
In a video posted to X on Friday that features captions in English, a Hader resident claiming to be a representative of the Druze people, an esoteric ethnoreligious group, urged a large crowd to consider what their future will be like. The village is located within the buffer zone between Israel and Syria, which IDF troops entered last week.
“If we have to choose, we will choose the lesser evil,” he said. “And even if it’s considered evil to ask to be annexed to the [Israeli] Golan, it’s a much lesser evil than the evil coming our way,” the man added, apparently referring to the HTS, which was formerly known as the Al Nusra front – an offshoot of Al Qaeda in Syria.
The man warned, clearly in reference to the armed jihadist factions now all over Syria: “That evil might take our women, might take our daughters, they might take our houses.”
Israel has meanwhile signaled it plans to keep its military presence in southern Syria, and will maintain a forward operating base on the Syrian side of Mt. Hermon.
END
GAZA/ISRAEL
We are still far off from a hostage deal
(JerusalemPost)
Hostage deal hurdles: Egyptian sources say Israeli term slowing deal – report
Israel has reportedly rejected the possibility that Marwan Barghouti be released as part of a prisoner-for-hostage exchange.
A woman casts a shadow as she walks past a banner calling for the release of the hostages kidnapped during the deadly October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas, amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, in Tel Aviv, Israel, December 5, 2024.(photo credit: REUTERS/Stoyan Nenov TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)
The Philadelphi Corridor has reportedly remained a hurdle as Israel continues to pursue maintaining control of the area as a critical component of preventing Hamas’s future rearmament.
Additionally, as was a point of contention in previous discussions, Israel has reportedly rejected the possibility that Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti be released as part of a prisoner-for-hostage exchange.
In August, Hamas demanded Barghouti’s release as part of a prospective deal. The call for the Fatah leader’s freedom was allegedly connected to Hamas’s concerns that it would not be able to maintain power over the Gaza Strip and Barghouti would be a way to maintain a position of influence.
In May, Maariv, citing the Saudi Asharq, reported that Israel no longer opposed Barghouti’s release but had insisted he be released into Gaza instead of the West Bank.
Jailed Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti (C) is accompanied by Israeli prison guards after a deliberation at Jerusalem Magistrate’s court January 25, 2012. Convicted of murder for his role in attacks on Israelis, Barghouti was jailed for life by Israel in 2004. (credit: REUTERS/AMMAR AWAD)
Barghouti, former leader of the Tanzim, an armed faction of the Palestinian Fatah movement, was sentenced in 2004 by an Israeli court to five cumulative life sentences and 40 years in prison for terrorist acts in which five Israelis were murdered and many others were wounded.
The informed official claimed that, in addition to refusing demands for Barghouti’s release, Israel insisted that the prisoners be released outside of Palestinian territories – a term Hamas is reportedly expected to accept.
“Israel has a vision of alternative lists of Palestinian prisoners, including people who were recently arrested, which could delay the drafting of the agreement,” the source claimed. “Many of the mechanisms for the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and the redeployment of forces inside it are still under discussion and have not been finally decided.”
Despite the holdup, the source claimed Egypt believed the United States “will have a greater role in accelerating the pace of negotiations and ending the obstacles that Tel Aviv has brought back to the forefront, even if the names of the prisoners to be released are changed.”
Reports on the terms of a prospective deal
Despite the complications, a Hamas official told Saudi’s Asharq Al-Awsat on Friday that there is a “great opportunity to announce a prisoner exchange deal with Israel and understandings for a ceasefire” in the Gaza Strip.
“If US President-elect Donald Trump succeeds in preventing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from evading or obstructing, we will be facing a three-stage exchange deal and a gradual ceasefire agreement, perhaps before the end of the year, i.e., before Trump’s inauguration,” the official claimed.
Informed sources told the Saudi news outlet that the ceasefire agreement is likely to see a pause in fighting for 6-8 weeks, with a preliminary truce for two weeks that will be renewed for a month. The pause in fighting would come in exchange for 20 living civilian hostages, including five with dual citizenship.
Israel will also reportedly release a number of Palestinian prisoners “including at least 100 with long prison sentences,” sources told the outlet.
At least 400 aid trucks carrying fuel and other materials will also allegedly be allowed to enter Gaza.
The sources claimed that “the second phase negotiations will begin after that regarding the military detainees in exchange for a number of Palestinian prisoners,” indicating that “the negotiations will move to the exchange of the bodies of the dead, as Israel will present a list of the number of Palestinian prisoners it arrested after October 7, 2023.”
The sources added that while the IDF would be allowed to remain temporarily in the Philadelphi Corridor, forces would slowly withdraw from the Gaza Strip.
Another Hamas source told Asharq Israel “will allow the operation of the crossings designated for the entry of aid, including the border crossing with Egypt, and then gradually re-operate the Rafah crossing according to mechanisms that will be agreed upon and based on the crossing operation mechanism established in 2005, which includes the presence of European observers, with priority given to the passage of humanitarian cases such as the injured and patients with urgent cases first, then expanding the work of its mechanism.”
END
WEST BANK /PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY/P.I.J
Major Jihad commander killed in Jenin
(JerusalemPost)
PA security forces kill Islamic Jihad commander, sparking clashes in Jenin
Amid larger crackdown against terror groups in West Bank, PA general says his forces ‘thwarted a disaster’ by stopping car bombing aimed at Palestinian civilians and PA forces
Palestinian security forces stand guard at a roadblock in the West Bank city of Jenin on December 6, 2024. (Photo by Jaafar ASHTIYEH / AFP)
Palestinian Authority security forces killed a commander of the Islamic Jihad terror group’s Jenin Brigade early Saturday morning, sparking clashes in the West Bank city, Palestinian media reported.
Gunshots and explosions could be heard in the city and PA forces set up checkpoints around the city, that has been a hotebed for terror groups in recent years.
The Palestinian Islamic Jihad commander was named in the reports as Yazid Jaysa, who is said to have been wanted by both the PA and Israel. There was no immediate confirmation from Islamic Jihad.
The operation was part of a larger PA crack down against terror groups in Jenin, which the PA says is to restore security and stability to the area and comes as Ramallah appears to be trying to signal that it could play a significant role in managing a post-war Gaza Strip.
Brigadier General Anwar Rajab of the PA’s security forces confirmed the reports, and told the official Palestinian news agency Wafa that his forces “thwarted a disaster in Jenin camp, by containing a booby-trapped vehicle prepared by outlaws.”
Rajab said that the vehicle “was supposed to be detonated among citizens and security personnel, as part of a cowardly criminal act that reflects an ISIS approach alien to our Palestinian values and morals and contradicts the course of our national struggle.”
Rajab added that a previous car bomb had detonated in recent days injuring a number of civilians and members of the security services.
Hamas condemned the PA for the Jenin operation and its allied group Islamic Jihad called for a day of protests.
On Monday, during another PA operation in Jenin, Palestinian security forces killed a 19-year-old Palestinian man named Rahbi Shalabi. The PA initially blamed his death on “lawbreakers,” but said on Thursday that after an investigation into his death, the PA “bears full responsibility” for the incident.
Last week, armed men seized two official PA vehicles and paraded through the Jenin refugee camp waving flags of the Islamic Jihad group, which is allied with Hamas. There were then gunfights in the area.
The clashes between local terror operatives and PA forces have added to the already soaring violence in the West Bank, with Israeli military raids and settler attacks increasing since the October 7, 2023, Hamas massacre in southern Israel triggered the ongoing war.
Mourners carry the body of 19-year-old Rahbi Shalabi, who was killed during clashes between Palestinian security forces and local terror groups a day earlier, during his funeral in the West Bank city of Jenin on December 10, 2024. (Zain Jaafar/AFP)
Since then, Israeli troops have arrested some 5,250 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including more than 2,050 affiliated with Hamas.
According to the PA health ministry, more than 716 West Bank Palestinians have been killed in that time. The IDF says the vast majority of them were gunmen killed in exchanges of fire, rioters who clashed with troops, or terrorists carrying out attacks.
During the same period, 42 people, including Israeli security personnel, have been killed in terror attacks in Israel and the West Bank. Another six members of the security forces were killed in clashes with terror operatives in the West Bank.
END
This is interesting: Israel to deploy remote automated weapons at checkpoints for the first time
(Middle East Eye)
Israel To Deploy Remote Automated Weapons In West Bank For First Time
The Israeli military is preparing to deploy remotely controlled automated weapons across occupied West Bank checkpoints to target Palestinians, according to a report by the Israeli Army Radio on Sunday.
The system, named “Roeh-Yoreh” (“See-Fires”), is an advanced weaponry structure developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems. It includes a tower with sophisticated surveillance equipment and a remote-controlled lethal fire mechanism.
Since its introduction into the Israeli military arsenal in 2008, the system has been exclusively used in Gaza, where it was deployed along the security fence to target Palestinians approaching the barrier.
According to Army Radio, the move to use the system in the West Bank comes despite its limited effectiveness in repelling the Hamas-led October 7 attacks out of Gaza.
In the early hours of the assault, Hamas used drones to hit the tower-mounted weapons, disabling them with ease and allowing fighters to cross the boundary into Israel.
The Israeli military plans to deploy dozens of Roeh-Yoreh systems in strategic locations across the West Bank, including settlement entrances and key control points, according to the report.
The goal, it added, was to prevent armed attacks and infiltrations into illegal Israeli settlements. The manufacturing of these systems for the West Bank has already begun.
Initially, they will be installed at high-risk locations by the Israeli military, with plans to expand deployment to additional sites.
According to the report, the 636 Reconnaissance Unit of the West Bank Division will operate the systems, amid rising Israeli concerns about growing security threats in the territory.
Around 700,000 Israeli settlers live in roughly 300 illegal settlements in the West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem, which have been constructed since they were captured by Israel in the 1967 war. Under international law, settlement construction in an occupied territory is illegal.
Since Israel launched its war on Gaza in October last year, violence by the army and settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank has skyrocketed.
At least 800 Palestinians from the West Bank have been killed by Israeli fire since the war began, with around 6,500 more wounded, according to Palestinian health officials.
end
ISRAEL/SYRIA THIS AFTERNOON
Watch: Overnight Israeli Strike In Syria So Large It Caused Earthquake
Monday, Dec 16, 2024 – 01:45 PM
Days ago Israel began warning that it will use large bunker buster munitions to begin destroying the former Syrian Army’s underground missile and weapons storehouses.
This has begun in the overnight hours, with Israeli warplanes pummeling air defense systems and ammunition depots in Damascus and the coastal city of Tartous, near where a Russian naval base is located. The strike on Tartous resulted in the singlebiggest explosion seen in Syria in years, unleashing a fireball and mushroom cloud so large it led to quick speculation it could have been a tactical nuke (which widespread reports are denying).
The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) described that Israeli warplanes hit air defense units and “surface-to-surface missile depots” as part of a bid to degrade and disable Syria’s military capability. SOHR also called it the “the heaviest strikes” on the region in over a decade.
The Telegraphwrote that “A 3.1 magnitude tremor was reported by the Geographic Survey of Israel’s seismology department at 11.49pm on Sunday night in the region of the bombings.”
“The explosions in Tartous were extremely loud,” Al Jazeera’s Resul Serdar, reporting from inside the country, additionally described. “Some experts are saying that might probably mean it was a chemical weapons production house.”
Other sites which were bombed overnight were radar and air defense systems outside of Damascus, around the Qaisioun mountain which dominates the background of the capital.
In total there have been an estimated 600 Israeli strikes over the course of eight days. Some of them began immediately upon Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) entering the environs of Damascus as President Assad fled the country.
An Israeli broadcast correspondent from Kann previously wrote that “An Israeli source tells me: Israel’s goal is to destroy everything from Assad’s army that could fall into the hands of the rebels – from tanks to missiles. We are destroying the equipment of the Assad army.”
Jets and aerial equipment, and runways at bases are being obliterated. Part of Israel’s aim also seems to be preventing pro-Iranian entities from ever popping up again in Syria, and to finally and definitively dismantle Hezbollah and Shia militias’ arms networks. It’s also unclear what kind of future government will dominate Syria – most likely a hardline Sunni one.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
This is key: Russian forces positioned to take the key city of Pokrovsk. If this city falls, there is nothing but green fields ahead. Ukrainian manpower falters.
(zerohedge)
Russian Forces Positioned To Take Key City Of Pokrovsk As Ukrainian Manpower Falters
Friday, Dec 13, 2024 – 11:00 PM
The key logistical hub of Ukraine’s eastern front, Pokrovsk has been under steady contention for the past three months. Russian forces have spent the better part of that time pushing westward to flank just south of the city. They have now taken Kurakhove and cut off supply routes coming from Pokrovsk to a large portion of the front line. Some reports indicate that Ukrainian troops trying to leave Kurakhove may be cut off. The slow motion flanking maneuver has set the stage for Pokrovsk to be enveloped from the south.
Since the beginning of the war the area has been the primary staging ground for resupply of Ukrainian troops across the east. After Pokrovsk is cut off or taken, it is expected that Russia will then be able to gain significant ground across the entire front and move closer to controlling all of Donetsk.
Losses for Ukraine have been stacking up in 2024 and lack of manpower has been the overarching theme. Though numerous western officials and think-tanks (including The Institute For The Study of War) claim that Russian gains have been paid for with “massive casualties”, they’ve provided no concrete proof so far to support their stats. The “Russian meat grinder” narrative is beginning to sound like a coping mechanism or propaganda as it becomes clear that Russia is gaining troop strength instead of losing momentum.
(There has been similar propaganda surrounding mass casualties of North Korean troops in Kursk – There are still no verified reports or video footage of actual DPRK troops in combat against Ukraine. Rumors abound, like the “Ghost of Kyiv”)
What we do know is that Ukraine is desperate for new soldiers to refresh their defensive lines. NATO leaders and the Biden White House have been putting pressure on Vladimir Zelensky to draft men from the 18-25 age bracket; a move Zelensky has avoided to prevent the complete loss of a generation. The average age of conscripts is now well over 40 years old.
This may be why Joe Biden recently gave the green light for Ukraine to use long range missiles (ATACMs and Storm Shadows) within Russian territory. Every time Ukraine faces a strategic failure, NATO offers up new weaponry as a public distraction. They said Abrams tanks would be a game changer for Ukraine, then they said the F-16s would be a game changer. Now they claim the long range strikes using smart weapons will be a game changer.
Most military analysts agree that these weapons have had little effect on the course of the war.
Russia’s typical methodology for dealing with urban centers has been to surround and then bombard with artillery and FABs until the majority of buildings and defenses are rubble. A renowned Ukrainian military officer, Serhii Filimonov, commander of the Da Vinci Wolves battalion of the 59th Motorised Brigade, described Pokrovsk’s defense as a “disaster”. Senior officers are placing “unrealistic” demands on units and are unfamiliar with circumstances on the front line, Filimonov wrote on his Telegram channel this week.
n simple economics 101 you are taught about “guns and butter” and how nations suffer when guns take away from butter. Today the West has lost all sense of this Elementary Concept depriving its citizens of wealth by allowing trade to shift to what is called the Global South for the sake of war. Conflict which is depleting wallets from spending on new trade. NO America is not the current solution or problem; the narrowed minded focus on War ( guns) is the problem. Fix the economies with trade and the problem is gone. Today America must fix itself before it can help its neighbors. And that means getting back to business and not war. Let those who choose war to fix their own issues. Because time will fix by deprivation of wealth as conflict destroys value. Many nations throughout history have allowed themselves to be hollowed out by war. Leaving future generations to be rebuilt by ingenuity. It is why history repeats as we resist to learn its’ lessons. While the West fiddles with losing conflicts like Ukraine paying attention to the madness of Zelensky who cries for Europe to sacrifice itself for his pocket. Let Europe be free and address the issues of production and not those of war. War will not bring wealth and prosperity to Europe. Trade will change everything given a chance. And it has to be trade beyond America who needs to heal to be a guiding economic light of consumption a gain. It too has real problems that no longer can be ignored nor swept away. Much like Canada who needs a vast new economy driven by trade to utilize it’s resources instead of being a debt puppet dancing to the tunes of the WEF and others which is causing Canada to become a backwater country. Within a decade Canada risks being on its’ way to becoming a third world nation for many decades to come. Many countries in Europe face declines unchecked. Why? Because a declining economy gathers momentum with decline of consumer spending and confidence. Today, Germany has not only faltered but stands on the brink of a steep decline that may well result in it not being the economic engine of Europe. The car industry in Germany is very much at risk of decline globally. It lost the Russian market to China and now has lost the EV market to China and risks untold losses in unsold inventory and mass layoffs that will ripple across the EU in lower income spending. People who lose their jobs or suffer a 10%+ wage cut do not open their wallets. Whether America’s allies wake up in enough time to change course is a question not yet answered.
While the West fiddles and diddles wasting precious assets on thuggery and thievery the real world based on trade marches to the beat of new drums.
Drums that beat the reality that TRADE = MONEY while the loss of trade in the West is a leak from existing wealth as only trade of tangible assets creates lasting wealth going forward. The rest is an illusion.
The West will not talk about changing trade patterns because to speak of such things is to admit political failure on the part of governments to manage economies. While the public is left to ponder why their ability to retain wealth through purchasing power is diminished.
Fools like Trudeau and Doug Ford prance with talk of cutting off exports to America while at the same time thinking that taxes on exports will cause gain. All that was asked is that they curb migration of migrants and control drug traffickers from sending drugs to America. The lack of understanding about trade is evidenced in the CDN declining in value since these two folks opened their mouths to voice foolishness. All Canadians have been told to pay in lower currency value for empty words of politicians trying to be relevant so they can be re-elected. Dumb meets dumber.
Thus when you read of changing trade patterns remember that each unit of value that leaves the west, beggars the west, because these trade patterns are not going to return. It is the same way in which this week the divide between Ottawa/Ontario was widened with provinces like Quebec, Alberta, Nova Scotia telling these two fools that they are on their own. It is the same way the EEC is telling the West, it is not required. And with such trade change new trade wealth is created to the chagrin of those nations and peoples who lost it.
Global South will account for 75% of trade with the Eurasian Economic Union in 2024!
Nations from the Global South will represent three quarters of the Eurasian Economic Union’s trade turnover by the end of 2024, the Minister of Trade of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) Andrey Slepnev told Russian media. He added that the share of EU states has shrunk by 2.5 from 40% before 2022.
What other priorities does the Eurasian Economic Union have?
Emphasis on China. China is a crucial partner for the Eurasian Economic Union, accounting for one-third of its trade turnover. Notably, 95% of settlements with China are conducted in national currencies. Additionally, trade with Turkiye and India is expected to reach $60 billion by the end of the year, with the majority of settlements made in national currencies.
The UAE as a gateway to the Persian Gulf. The EEU plans to establish a free trade agreement with the UAE, aiming for a trade turnover exceeding $13 billion. Cooperation with the UAE will provide access to the Persian Gulf market and beyond, thanks to the country’s extensive partnership network.
Iran on the way to the North-South corridor. The Eurasian Economic Union also seeks a free-trade agreement with Iran, a key nation in the North-South Transport Corridor. Besides, Iran has extensive experience in substituting imports and withstanding sanctions while developing its own technologies.
why would any sane parent or vaccine maker put these infants in this type of study? see Tables 1 & 2 below (5 cases of severe reaction in vaccine group & 1 in placebo, 12.5% vs 5% respectively)
So, the Moderna (Bancel as CEO) RSV trials were stopped, paused due to harms in the infants, did you know this? Due to the RSV vaccines under trial e.g. mRESVIA. Driving severe lower respiratory tract infections in the infants, did you know? So, is this mRNA transfection vaccine causing severe or very severe LRTIs? Or making the infants more susceptible? Causing severe/very severe LRTI (lower respiratory tract infection) cases. FDA has made the briefing paper available for the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) Meeting.
Yet did Moderna not get prior FDA approval for mRESVIA for RSV in adults, elderly or so? The same vaccine being trialed in these infants that caused the severe LRTI severe illness?
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
I call on POTUS Trump (and RFK Jr.) again to put an immediate halt to these mRNA LNP gene delivery platform transfection injections (stop and rescind and reverse the LIABILITY PROTECTION shield under PREP Act, March 2020 Azar) until we have PROPER long term follow up studies (proper safety end-points, proper patient-important clinical endpoints such as death, hospitalization and NOT antibody titers and immuno-bridging) with the proper oncogenicity, genotoxicity, toxicity in general, teratogenicity, hepatoxicity, long-term follow-up safety studies. Pull EUAs and pull all mRNA vaccines from market NOW, a complete stop!
assess and recognize it just MAY be the Malone Bourla Bancel et al. Operation Warp Speed (OWS) mRNA transfection gene LNP platform not-a-real vaccine? So that they could HELP end this madness? When?
Joe Biden’s DOD issues new statement but it’s NOT going to leave you with any confidence…Joe Biden’s Defense Department just issued a new statement, presumably over the continued drone sightings in New Jersey, but it isn’t going to leave you with any confidence whatsoever. Here’s the message. See if you can figure out it’s true meaning: JUST IN: The Biden Department of Defense has just released a statement Yes, this is real. No wonder …READ THE FULL REPORT
Pelosi Spokesman Issues StatementRep. Nancy Pelosi was admitted to a hospital in Luxembourg after she “sustained an injury during an official engagement,” but is continuing to work, a spokesman said. Pelosi went to the hospital as the result of a fall on the stairs, three sources told CNN. The former speaker will likely require surgery for a hip injury, sources familiar with the …READ THE FULL REPORT
Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman to Give $1 Million Each to Trump Inauguration FundSilicon Valley tech moguls and companies are donating large sums to President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration fund. Open AI CEO Sam Altman, Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta, and Jeff Bezos’ Amazon have all donated or plan to donate $1 million each to the fund. Altman, who plans to make a personal donation to the fund, told NPR, “President Trump will lead our country …READ THE FULL REPORT
Covid Seroprevalence Study: For Official Department of Defense Use Only… Until NowAccording to a series of eight interim reports obtained by the author in November 2024, the Department of Defense (DOD) engaged in a longitudinal SARS-CoV-2 (coronavirus) seroprevalence study of 29,000 members of the U.S. military between May 2020 and June 2021. Active, Guard, and Reserve components were included in the study. Each document is marked “For Official Use Only” or …READ THE FULL REPORT
‘Mystery Drone’ Crashes in New Jersey, Investigation UnderwayA mysterious drone crashed into a residential backyard in New Jersey on Thursday night, adding to growing concerns and unease over unexplained aerial sightings across the Garden State. Authorities are investigating the incident as residents grapple with questions about the origins and purpose of these devices. The incident occurred around 8:45 p.m. in Pequannock Township, located in Morris County, according …READ THE FULL REPORT
Democrat Rep. Arrested for ‘Terroristic Threats’ to Kill 5 of His Republican ColleaguesAn incoming Democrat state representative in West Virginia has been arrested after he allegedly threatened to kill five of his soon-to-be Republican colleagues. Joseph de Soto, 61, was arrested by state police Thursday in Martinsburg after an investigation found that he made “several threatening/intimidating threats against government officials,” according to a statement from Lieutenant Leslie T. Goldie Jr. of the …READ THE FULL REPORT
ABC News, George Stephanopoulos Agree to Pay $15 Million to Settle Trump’s Defamation LawsuitABC News and its anchor George Stephanopoulos have reached a settlement with President-elect Donald Trump in a defamation lawsuit, agreeing to pay a $15 million charitable contribution, $1 million to cover Trump’s attorney fees, and issue an apology. A joint notice, filed on Dec. 14, indicates that the parties have both entered into a written settlement agreement, resolving the legal …READ THE FULL REPORT
Watch: Mysterious ‘Floating Orb’ Caught on Camera by Local NJ News CrewThe mystery surrounding the sightings in New Jersey just took another twist. An ABC 7 News Crew this morning recorded several seconds of video of a strange, white orb on camera floating around in the Mendham Township sky while doing an update on suspicious drone sightings across the Garden State. The reporter says they have “no idea what it is.” …READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK/
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
This will hurt Canada and the Canadian dollar
(zerohedge)
Canadian FinMin Freeland Quits, Warns Trudeau That Trump Tariffs Are “Grave Challenge”
Monday, Dec 16, 2024 – 09:31 AM
In a stunning move that shakes the government, Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has resigned from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s cabinet after he tried to move her to a different role.
Freeland has been the most powerful person in Trudeau’s cabinet for years, and was the point person in strategizing how to counter US President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose 25% tariffs.
Trudeau has now seen the departure of two finance ministers in a little more than four years. Freeland got the job in 2020 after the prime minister had a falling out with then-Finance Minister Bill Morneau over issues such as spending on Covid-related income support programs.
It has been the honour of my life to serve in government, working for Canada and Canadians. We have accomplished a lot together.
On Friday, you told me you no longer want me to serve as your Finance Minister and offered me another position in the Cabinet.
Upon reflection, I have concluded that the only honest and viable path is for me to resign from the Cabinet.
To be effective, a Minister must speak on behalf of the Prime Minister and with his full confidence. In making your decision, you made clear that I no longer credibly enjoy that confidence and possess the authority that comes with it.
For the past number of weeks, you and I have found ourselves at odds about the best path forward for Canada.
Our country today faces a grave challenge. The incoming administration in the United States is pursuing a policy of aggressive economic nationalism, including a threat of 25 per cent tariffs.
We need to take that threat extremely seriously. That means keeping our fiscal powder dry today, so we have the reserves we may need for a coming tariff war. That means eschewing costly political gimmicks, which we can ill afford and which make Canadians doubt that we recognize the gravity of the moment.
That means pushing back against ‘America First’ economic nationalism with a determined effort to fight for capital and investment and the jobs they bring. That means working in good faith and humility with the Premiers of the provinces and territories of our great and diverse country, and building a true Team Canada response.
I know Canadians would recognize and respect such an approach. They know when we are working for them, and they equally know when we are focused on ourselves.
Inevitably, our time in government will come to an end. But how we deal with the threat our country currently faces will define us for a generation, and perhaps longer. Canada will win if we are strong, smart, and united.
It is this conviction which has driven my strenuous efforts this fall to manage our spending in ways that will give us the flexibility we will need to meet the serious challenges presented by the United States.
I will always be grateful for the chance to have served in government and I will always be proud of our government’s work for Canada and Canadians.
I look forward to continuing to work with my colleagues as a Liberal Member of Parliament, and I am committed to running again for my seat in Toronto in the next federal election.
Perhaps she sees the painful writing on the wall for her boss…
As we highlighted in a recent post, Turdeau’s government (sic) would have no choice but to respond if Trump simply exempted energy while hitting all other Canadian products, said Bloomberg sources, adding that’s a scenario that could prompt the use of export taxes by Canada.
But for the prime minister, going down this path would cause serious political divisions within Canada. Oil, uranium and potash production are concentrated in the western provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Those provinces are the strongest voter base for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, and their provincial governments are staunch right-wing opponents of Trudeau.
In short, while Turdeau may retaliate in a Trump trade war, such an action will likely be his last.
end
CANADA
Trudeau Considering Quitting After Canadian FinMin Freeland Unexpectedly Resigns: Report
Monday, Dec 16, 2024 – 02:50 PM
Update (2:30pm ET): Canada’s CTV News reports that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is considering interrupting Parliament (prorogation) For resignation according to unnamed sources. The sources say he has spoken to his cabinet and plans to address Parliament later on Monday. This comes after finance minister Chrystia Freeland resigned earlier on Monday citing disagreements over how to deal with tariff threats from US president-elect Donald Trump.
If confirmed, it would mean government collapse in 4 of the staunchest, and most developed “non-banana republic” Western democracies: France, Germany, South Korea and now Canada. And, of course, we use the term “non-banana republic” sarcastically.
As for Turdeau, his odds of being Tru-done just spiked to 88% on Polymarket.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0498 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA/ YEN 154.06 UP 0.537 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.2657 UP .0052
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4247 UP 0.0024 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 24 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 5.55 PTS OR 0.16%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 175.75 OR 0.88%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.66%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 175.75 PTS OR 0.88%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 5.55 PTS OR 0.16%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.66%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 12.95 PTS OR 0.03%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2663.20
silver:$30.71
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 106.65 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED D0WN 7.2904 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2900)
TURKISH LIRA: 34.96 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.059
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.390% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.596 DOWN 2 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.232 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2655.90
SILVER AT 11;00: 30.61
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: MONDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 38/28 PTS OR 0.46%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 92.11 OR 0.45%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 52.49 PTS OR 0.71%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 26.50 OR 0.23%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 148.54 OR 0.43%
WTI Oil price 71.14 12 EST/
Brent Oil: 74.16 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 104.10 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 40/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2330 UP 0 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.4670 UP 5 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.231 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.027 UP 5 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0511 UP 0.0015 OR 15 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2685 UP 0.0080 OR 80 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.410 UP 0 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.063
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 154.10 UP 0.585 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4242 UP 0.0019 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 19 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 70.57
Brent OIL: 73.78
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 4.395
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS PTS to 4.243%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 0 PTS AT 4.243
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.202 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.988 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 106.55 DOWN 12 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.93 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 103.60 UP 0 AND 90/100 roubles
GOLD 2,652.90 3:30 PM
SILVER: 30.54 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 110.58 PTS OR 0.28%
NASDAQ UP 316.40 PTS OR 1.45%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.55 UP 0.74 PTS OR 5.36%
GLD: $244,90 UP 0.61 OR 0.25%
SLV/ $27.80 UP 0.05 OR 0.18%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: DOWN 129.35 PTS OR 0.51%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING TODAY CLOSING
Bitcoin Roars To New Record High As Stocks Suffer Worst Breadth Since 9/11
MORNING TRADING/
END
II USA DATA
wow! PMI manufacturing PMI plunges but PMI services skyrocket to 38 month highs
(zerohedge)
US Manufacturing PMI Plunges As Services Soar To 38-Month-High, But…
Monday, Dec 16, 2024 – 09:55 AM
Following Europe’s mixed bag of PMIs (Manufacturing contracting harder as Services save the composites in France, Germany, & UK – but all still in contraction overall), S&P Global’s US Manufacturing and Services were expected to decline modestly in preliminary December data released this morning.
Analysts were half right… as US Manufacturing PMI plunged to 48.3 (from 49.7 and below all expectations) but US Services soared higher (to 58.5 from 56.1, far above all expectations)
And that has all happened as ‘hard’ data has been serially outperforming…
Source: Bloomberg
The Services survey hits a 38-month high as US Manufacturing Output plummets to a 55-month low…
Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:
“Business is booming in the US services economy, where output is growing at the sharpest rate since the reopening of the economy from COVID lockdowns in 2021. The service sector expansion is helping drive overall growth in the economy to its fastest for nearly three years, consistent with GDP rising at an annualized rate of just over 3% in December.
“It’s a different picture in manufacturing, however, where output is falling sharply and at an increased rate, in part due to weak export demand.
Encouragingly, confidence in the 12-month outlook has lifted to a two-and-a-half year high, suggesting the robust economic upturn will persist into the new year and could also become more broad-based by sector.
However, Williamson notes that some of the high spirits seen after the election in the manufacturing sector have been checked over concerns surrounding tariffs and the potential impact on inflation resulting from the higher cost of imported materials.
December saw raw material prices spike sharply higher amid supplier-led price rises and higher shipping costs, in a reflection of busier supply chains in advance of threatened protectionism in the new year.”
So surging economy and rising prices… not exactly the recipe for more rate cuts this week?
III USA ECONOMIC NEWS
At Least 5 Dead, 7 Injured At Wisconsin School Shooting
Monday, Dec 16, 2024 – 01:56 PM
At least four people have been killed and seven others were injured at a shooting at a Christian school in Madison, Wisconsin, on Monday morning, local police and ABC News said. Madison Police Chief Shon Barnes said the suspected juvenile shooter was also found dead.
“This remains an active and ongoing investigation. More information will be released as it is available. We currently need people to avoid the area,” Madison police said.
Officers responded to a call about an active shooter at the Abundant Life Christian School at 10:57 a.m. local time, Barnes said.
“Our officers were responding to a call of an active shooter at the Abundant Life Christian School here in Madison,” Barnes said at a news conference. “When officers arrived, they found multiple victims suffering from gunshot wounds.”
Abundant Life is a K through 12th-grade school with about 400 students.
Barnes added in the news conference that he won’t provide any details on the victims, including their names or if they are staff or students, until their next of kin are notified.
“We are praying for the kids, educators, and entire Abundant Life school community as we await more information and are grateful for the first responders who are working quickly to respond,” Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers said in a statement on social media.
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) wrote on social media: “My sincere condolences and prayers for all the victims of the tragedy at Abundant Life Christian School. I will continue to closely monitor the situation.”
And Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) also said, “I have been briefed on the active shooting at Abundant Life Christian School in Madison and my heart goes out to all those impacted. My office is in touch with local and state officials, and I stand ready to assist law enforcement and anyone affected.”
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
end
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
TUCKER CARLSON INTERVIEWING
KING REPORT
The King Report Devember 16, 2024 Issue 7391
Independent View of the News
@FinanceLancelot: IBKR CEO Thomas Peterffy says Magnificent 7 now represent over 70% of daily trading volumes on their platform. He also “hopes” equity prices don’t “come down too fast” so they can liquidate their positions as it happens… A little concerning that he promptly deleted this post. https://x.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1867411156627075257
When the Mag 7/Fang bubble bursts, PE Powell and his ilk will stridently claim that they never saw any evidence of a bubble – and no one saw evidence of a bubble.
Mag 7 and tech stocks soared early on Friday due to Broadcom CEO’s AI incantation that mitigated mediocre results and inline Q4 guidance. However, sellers quickly materialized, and a big reversal appeared. Nvidia was -3.2% at 11:08 ET.
ESZs traded modestly to moderately higher from the Nikkei opening on Friday until they broke higher at the 3 ET European opening. ESZs relentlessly rallied to a daily high of 6085.25 at 8 ET. They then slipped to 6072.75 at 9:24 ET. Buying for the NYSE opening spiked ESZs to 6084.75 at 9:46 ET. The dump then appeared, and it was accompanied by aggressive organic selling. ESZs tumbled to a daily low of 6043.50 at 11:11 ET. The much-needed manipulation for the European close (and weekend) forced ESZs to 6060.00 at 11:34 ET. Selling resumed; ESZs sank to a new daily low of 6042.00 at 12:40 ET.
The Friday Afternoon Rally pushed ESZs to 6060.25 at 15:48 ET and then fell to 6051.00 at 16:00 ET.
Bonds declined sharply again. USHs sank as much as 1 4/32. Bonds have rescinded almost all their rebound rally from November 18 to December 6.
The yield on 10-year US Treasury note hit 4.40% on Friday. It was 3.60% on September 17, the day before the Fed announced its jumbo rate cut of 50 basis points.
We mentioned several months ago that the current inflation situation is eerie like what transpired in the Seventies – and the large inflation wave is coming. More pundits are now highlighting this. Chart of CPI y/y 1966-1982 vs. now at link: https://x.com/GordonJohnson19/status/1867649073677054422/photo/1
Nissan axing 9,000 jobs, CEO cuts his own pay as US sales slump Nissan cut its annual profit outlook by 70% to 150 billion yen ($975 million) on Thursday, the second time it lowered the forecast this year. Like many foreign automakers, it is struggling in China where BYD and other local manufacturers are gobbling up market share with affordable EVs and hybrids that boast advanced technology… The Yokohama-based company is planning to cut 9,000 jobs, equivalent to 6.7% of its 133,580 global employees… https://t.co/96bQm8Qjex
Positive aspects of previous session Mag 7 and tech stocks rallied early on Broadcom. Gold and precious metals declined sharply but Bitcoin rallied (The unwind is back!) A moderate Friday Afternoon Rally materialized.
Negative aspects of previous session The DJIA, DJTA, and Russell 2k declined. The Mag 7/tech rally peaked just after the opening. USHs sank as much as 1 4/32. Oil and gasoline rallied robustly.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How high will the latest US stock bubble go?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6055.15 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6078.58; 6035.77
@JackPosobiec: DC official tells me Nancy Pelosi has taken a fall in Europe and been admitted to the hospital. “She may need surgery and she might have broken her hip.”
@PGtzsche1: Moderna halted a clinical trial of its mRNA vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in small children in September. This week, the FDA disclosed: 12.5% of vaccinated vs 5% in the placebo group developed severe or very severe RSV disease. https://t.co/tqm7HoC9eo
@wesbury: In the past two years: SP500 +60%; SP500 Earnings +5%; Something has to give.
@Barchart: S&P 500 Value Stocks have declined for 10 consecutive days, the longest losing streak in historyhttps://t.co/Qi1e5WYfpJ
@NorthmanTrader: Not to interrupt all the bull cheering, but the DJIA has casually dropped over 1,000 points since last week’s peak and nobody’s even taking about it… https://x.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1867315393091518685
@RealEJAntoni: Latest productivity numbers show another massive downward revision w/ inflation-adjusted compensation growing 40% slower than previously estimated last quarter while Q2 flipped from growth to contraction: https://t.co/Qj6AsRMFaB
@Barchart: There have been 33 major corporate debt defaults in Europe this year, far surpassing the Global Financial Crisis and falling just short of the number in 2020 due to Covid. https://t.co/3VQJCD32KS
Today – Traders will play for the Monday Rally, the Expiry Week squeeze, and the propensity for stocks to rally into Fed Day (Wednesday). However, the technical condition of the US stock market is deteriorating, and valuations are at or near historic extremes. Sentiment, especially among the guppies, is at super nova hot.
One hook for equities will be removed on Wednesday. After the Fed cuts the Fed Fund Rate by the expected 25bps, the market expects the Fed to pause. Only the upward bias of the Santa Rally and Trump euphoria will remain as props for stocks.
ESZs are +5.00; NQZs are +10.50; and USHs are +4/32 at 20:10 ET.
Expected Econ Data: Dec Empire Mfg. 10.0; Dec S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 49.5, Services PMI 55.8, Composite PMI 55.1
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5907; 100-day MA: 5727; 150-day MA: 5627; 200-day MA: 5506 DJIA 50-day MA: 43,359; 100-day MA: 42,115; 150-day MA: 41,199; 200-day MA: 40,584 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (6051.09 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5304.59 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5735.66 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 6008.08 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 6075.57 triggers a buy signal
@libsoftiktok: Biden commuted the sentence of the judge behind the kids-for-cash scandal. The judge was sentenced to 28-years in prison for a kickback scheme where he made millions of dollars for sending children to for-profit prisons. He destroyed thousands of kids’ lives. https://t.co/ZyTjjSyNp4
Biden slammed for commuting sentence of notorious ‘Kids-for-Cash’ judge convicted of imprisoning juveniles for $2.1M kickbackshttps://trib.al/EgePrhI
@paulsperry_: Records show President Biden has granted clemency to Zachary Scruggs, the son of Mississippi crook Dickie Scruggs, a major Biden donor who gave Jimmy Biden’s consulting firm, Lion Hall, $100,000. His son Zach Scruggs was convicted in his father’s scheme to bribe a judge.
@NewsPolitics: Biden did it because she’s in the same ‘business’ as him and his family… President Biden commutes sentence for former Dixon, Ill. Comptroller Rita Crundwell, who embezzled over $53Mhttps://t.co/gyvN2Ul5i4
@FaceTheNation: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) says she’s not comfortable with some of President Biden’s decisions when he commuted the sentences of nearly 1,500 people last week, and also “didn’t agree” with Biden’s pardon of his son, Hunter. She says there should be “some kind of an outside board” to help make these decisions, “instead of people just doing it in the middle of the night, and people in the White House — this makes no sense to me.” “This whole process cries out for reform, because otherwise you undermine the justice system.”https://x.com/FaceTheNation/status/1868343326040023273
@DefiyantlyFree: Leslie Stahl, the same woman who literally told President Trump that Hunter Biden’s laptop was Russian disinformation, and there is no proof of any corruption within the Biden family is very upset that nobody trusts the media anymore. And then the first thing they do is blame @elonmusk like it’s his fault that you people lie for a living. https://t.co/Ox850bru0t
Luigi Mangione’s family operated nursing home empire that was cited for abuse and health violationshttps://trib.al/cLsIaMq
The drones over New Jersey and other NE states could be the US Military testing its package delivery drones that are designed to rearm ships while at sea.
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on Friday told Americans to trust federal government “experts” regarding the reported drone sightings on the East Coast.
GOP @RepMTG: The government is in control of the drones and refuses to tell the American people what is going on. It really is that bad.
@CollinRugg: Drone manufacturer says the only reason to fly drones at night is to look for something (Via thermal optics), suggests the NJ drones could be looking for a nuclear bomb from Ukraine… https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1868341208809873741
Are Suitcase Nukes on the Loose? The Story Behind the Controversy Former Russian Security Council Secretary Aleksandr Lebed has stirred controversy in both Russia and the United States with his allegations that the Russian government is currently unable to account for some eighty small atomic demolition munitions (ADMs) which were manufactured in the USSR during the Cold War. Lebed originally made the allegations in a closed meeting with a US congressional delegation in May 1997… In the interview broadcast on “60 Minutes,” and in a follow-up interview on 8 September with Interfax, Lebed alleged that during the Cold War, small atomic demolition munitions had been manufactured for use by the special forces brigades of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the USSR General Staff. The munitions were designed to be used in sabotage operations behind enemy lines… https://nonproliferation.org/are-suitcase-nukes-on-the-loose-the-story-behind-the-controversy/
UPI: Report: Soviets hid nukes in US Oct. 26, 1999 Some of the contents of the KGB archive were secreted out by Vasili Mitrokhin, a former archivist for the secretive Soviet intelligence organization. Mitrokhin’s notes — which form the basis of ‘The Sword and Shield: The Mitrokhin Archive and the Secret History of the KGB,’ written with Christopher Andrew and published last month — identified 12 precise locations in Western Europe where explosives and other equipment were hidden in booby-trapped sites. Officials in Switzerland and Belgium used the notes last winter to find two dangerous caches, lending credibility to the archivist’s evidence… ‘I am outraged the (Clinton) administration has not even asked the question of the Russians about where the specific sites are in the United States,’ Weldon said at the hearing… https://www.upi.com/Archives/1999/10/26/Report-Soviets-hid-nukes-in-US/2702940910400/
Jill Biden schooled by children at White House toy drive event in priceless moment First Lady Jill Biden wished youngsters “Happy Holidays” at a Marine Corps Reserve Toys for Tots campaign Friday – but several children quickly corrected her, shouting “Happy Christmas” in a caught-on-camera interaction that sparked a social media frenzy. Jill Biden schooled by children at White House toy drive event in priceless moment… https://t.co/P83AE8wIsR
PS – Chanuka on December 26, one day after Christmas.
Financial writer and precious metals broker Bill Holter has been warning of a slowing economy since the September Fed .5% rate cut. If the economy was so strong, why cut rates? Joe Biden is saying his Administration is leaving office with the “strongest economy in modern history.” A recent FOX News poll says a big majority of voters think just the opposite about the economy with a whopping “77%” giving Biden “negative ratings” on the economy. Huge unpayable debt and insolvency problems keep stacking up that are pointing to the much talked about “economic reset.” The latest big warning sign comes from the Bank of England. Holter explains, “For the Bank of England to say starting January 1 of 2025 that whenever they bail out an institution, they are not going to tell the public that that institution was bailed out. That tells me that 2025 is the year of the ‘reset.’ Why would they say starting January 1st they are not going to tell you who they are bailing out? Wait a minute. Why would you need to bail anybody out? Markets are at all-time highs. You are telling us everything is great. The financial markets are great. The economy is great. Apparently, that’s bullshit, it’s not so great, and you feel the need to start bailing out institutions starting in 2025.”
When it comes to the Trump Administration cutting government spending with the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Holter sees a big problem. Holter says, “If money doesn’t get borrowed and it doesn’t get spent, it doesn’t get into the economy. The spending part is the important part. . . . Last year, the economy or GDP was roughly $29 trillion. Cutting $2 trillion is about 7% of $29 trillion. If you take that $2 trillion out, that is 7% of GDP that doesn’t exist. So, instead of . . . 2% or 3% growth, subtract 7% from that and you have -4% or -5% growth. That’s what we would have had since 2008. If we were not running deficits, we would have been running a negative GDP economy.”
On the flipside, Holter contends that the debt can’t grow forever either because interest on the debt is more than $1 trillion a year and exploding higher every year. Holter says, “Trump is not going to be able to come in and save the system because it’s just math. He can come in and make whatever happens follow the rule of law instead of the rule of make it up as you go. . . . Trump is in a quagmire of mathematics, and the mathematics in this country is broke. The whole financial system is a Ponzi Scheme that depends on deficit spending and increases in money supply or monetization.”
Holter says the so-called economic reset will be in two stages. Stage one will be banks will be bailed out, and then people will be bailed-in and lose their money in the bank. Holter points out all the laws have been changed to make depositors unsecured creditors of the lowest level. Same for people with stocks as the so-called great taking will take all shares out of your accounts. The second stage will be the world will not accept digital dollars or any other crypto for payment for real things. Holter says, “The world is going to demand real payment for real goods. . . . That’s when the price of everything resets.”
Gold, silver and other tangible assets, according to Holter, will reset higher, and most other things will reset lower—much lower. Holter says, “This will be true price discovery.”
There is much more in the 56-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter for 12.14.24.
[…] future of Bitcoin looks bright as it grows stronger in 2024. Its price surged past $106,00011, driven by institutional adoption and tech advancements. Supportive regulations have also played a […]
Emphasis on China. China is a crucial partner for the Eurasian Economic Union, accounting for one-third of its trade turnover. Notably, 95% of settlements with China are conducted in national currencies. Additionally, trade with Turkiye and India is expected to reach $60 billion by the end of the year, with the majority of settlements made in national currencies. 
The UAE as a gateway to the Persian Gulf. The EEU plans to establish a free trade agreement with the UAE, aiming for a trade turnover exceeding $13 billion. Cooperation with the UAE will provide access to the Persian Gulf market and beyond, thanks to the country’s extensive partnership network. 
Iran on the way to the North-South corridor. The Eurasian Economic Union also seeks a free-trade agreement with Iran, a key nation in the North-South Transport Corridor. Besides, Iran has extensive experience in substituting imports and withstanding sanctions while developing its own technologies.
JUST IN: The Biden Department of Defense has just released a statement Yes, this is real. No wonder …READ THE FULL REPORT
harveyorganblog.com 
[…] future of Bitcoin looks bright as it grows stronger in 2024. Its price surged past $106,00011, driven by institutional adoption and tech advancements. Supportive regulations have also played a […]
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