GOLD CLOSED UP $18.40 TO $3,235.30
SILVER CLOSED DOWN $0.19 TO $32.22
GOLD ACCESS CLOSED $3237.40
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $32.06
Bitcoin morning price:$96,902 UP 219 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $96,908 up 225 DOLLARS
Platinum price closing UP $0.80 TO $965.95
Palladium price; UP $5.70 TO $949.95
END
*CANADIAN GOLD: $4,470.54 UP $1.25 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH $4735.70 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//APRIL 21 2025)
*BRITISH GOLD: 2438.75 UP 7.50 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING//2,559.38 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 21/2025
*EURO GOLD: 2,865.42 UP 5.25 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2,973.82 EUROS PER OZ/ APRIL 21 //2025)
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EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MAY 2025 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 3,210.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 05/01/2025 DELIVERY DATE: 05/05/2025
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
152 C DORMAN TRADING, LLC 1
190 H BMO CAPITAL MARKETS 1925
323 C HSBC 8
332 H STANDARD CHARTERED B 24
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL (USA) 1
661 C JP MORGAN SECURITIES 7 15
686 C STONEX FINANCIAL INC 7 7
709 C BARCLAYS 2000 3
726 C PLUS500US FINANCIAL 2
737 C ADVANTAGE FUTURES 10 8
905 C ADM 30
TOTAL: 2,024 2,024
MONTH TO DATE: 11,302
MONTH TO DATE: 9,278
jpmorgan stopped: 15/2024
MAY
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR MAY/2024. CONTRACT: 2024 NOTICES FOR 2024 OZ 6.295 TONNES
total notices so far: 11,302 contracts for 1,130,200 OR 35.153 tonnes)
FOR MAY
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
SILVER NOTICES: 267 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1.355 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 12,884 CONTRACTS (NOTICES) for 64.420 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $18.40 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD
INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.41 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $.19 AT THE SLV: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.548 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//
CLOSING INVENTORY RESTS AT:
CLOSING INVENTORY: 450.424 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 356 CONTRACTS TO 137,500 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS OF $0.43 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 144 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE CME NOTIFIED US OF A STRONG 500 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE.. WE HAD A ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS COMEX TRADING THURSDAY AS THEY DESPERATELY AGAIN TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 4 WEEKS (WHERE RAIDS ARE CALLED UPON AGAIN AND AGAIN TRYING TO STOP THE RISE IN SILVER’S PRICE TO ABOVE $34.40 AND TO QUELL ADDITIONAL DERIVATIVE LOSSES TO OUR BANKERS’ MASSIVE TOTALS). THEY SUCCEEDED ON WEDNESDAY WITH SILVER’S LOSS IN PRICE AS THE PRICE IS STILL WELL BELOW THE MAGIC NUMBER OF $34.40 SILVER SPOT PRICE. . BUT THIS WAS COUPLED WITH A STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE OF 503 CONTRACTS ISSUED BY THE CME AND THAT SIGNALS DEEP CODE RED THAT THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO STOP SILVER BREAKING OVER THE 34.40 DOLLAR MARK. THUS OUR RAIDS ON OUR PRECIOUS SILVER METAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SILVER BREAKS $34.40. WE HAD A STRONG 500 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY OUR STRONG 503 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BE USED IN FRIDAY’S TRADING/ AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A SMALL SIZED 144 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.43.
THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT TODAY WE HAD OUR 2ND CONSECUTIVE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS OF 147 CONTRACTS FOR 0.735 MILLION OZ. THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS MUST NOW BE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY SCHEDULE. THUS FOR THE MONTH OF MAY WE HAVE A TOTAL OF 12.93 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED ON TWO OCCASIONS. THE RECIPIENT OF THIS LARGESS IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA. LOGICALLY ONLY A CENTRAL BANK WOULD ACCEPT THIS CRAZY CONTRACT WHEREBY THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA TAKES THE RISK OF DELIVERY FROM A BULLION BANK WHO CANNOT GUARANTEE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL SILVER TO THEM.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S ESPECIALLY SILVER IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER PRICE RISE OR INITIATE A RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEK’S TRADING ON SILVER AND NOW TODAY TRYING TO KEEP THE SILVER PRICE BELOW $34.40 . THE KEY PRICE TO WATCH IS $34.40. IF IT BREAKS THAT PRICE, THEN WE HEAD FOR $50.00 SILVER.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING: A STRONG 503 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.43) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS DESPITE HAVING A LOSS IN PRICE, WE LOST ZERO LONGS AS WE WITNESSED A TOTAL GAIN OF 144 CONTRACTS IN OPEN INTEREST FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE HAD A STRONG 500 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 67.830 MILLION OZ TO WHICH WE ADD OUR 232 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP OF 1.160 MILLION OZ AND THEN WE MUST ADD THOSE CRAZY CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 12.93 MILLION OZ
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.085 MILLION OZ WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S 1.160 MILLION QUEUE JUMP + 12.93 MILLION OZ (EX FOR RISK) EQUALS 83.015 MILLION OZ./
WE HAD:
/ STRONG COMEX OI LOSS+// A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE (500 CONTRACTS)/ VI) STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 503 CONTRACTS)
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: ADDED 500 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS APRIL. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF MAY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 2 DAYS, total 841 contracts: OR 4.205 MILLION OZ (420 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 4.205 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 132.54 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A HUMDINGER FOR ISSUANCE BUT ISSUANCE SLOWED DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST FIVE DAYS/// WILL NOT EXCEED MARCH 2022 RECORD OF 209 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2024 TOTAL: 1363.84 MILLION OR 1.363 BILLION OZ
JANUARY 2025: 67.230 MILLION OZ///(THIS MONTH’S ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL WILL BE SMALL)
FEB. 58.260 MILLION OZ//EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE/FINAL
MARCH: 67.020 MILLION OZ///QUITE SMALL AND BECOMING SMALLER EACH AND EVERY MONTH.
APRIL: 100.895 MILLION OZ///AVERAGE SIZE ISSUANCE
MAY: 4.205 MILLION OZ
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 356 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.43 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX// THURSDAY.,. . THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG 500 CONTRACT EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 500 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE FINISHED APRIL WITH A STRONG SILVER OZ STANDING OF 15.965 MILLION OZ NORMAL DELIVERY , PLUS OUR 4.00 MILLION EX FOR RISK
FINAL STANDING APRIL: 19.965 MILLION OZ
NEW INITITAL STANDING FOR MAY: 70.085 MILLION OZ. (INCLUDES 1.160 MILLION OZ QUEUE JUMP + 12.93 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.//NEW TOTAL STANDING 83.015 MILLION OZ
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (503 ) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND FOR SURE FRIDAY TRADING.
WE HAD 267 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1.335 million OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL. IT IS NOW TIME FOR THE FBI TO ENTER THE COMEX AND ARREST THESE CROOKS EVEN THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TRADING IS GOVERNMENT. THE BANKERS ARE COMPLICIT
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3692 OI CONTRACTS TO 439,159 AND FURTHER FROM TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,105 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110. (ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.) THUS WE HAVE A PRETTY LOW OI IN COMEX WITH AN EXTREMELY HIGH PRICE OF GOLD. THE SHORT RATS ARE ABANDONING THE SHIP.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 3465 CONTRACTS //.
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (3692 CONTRACTS) . THIS OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS OF $92.45 IN PRICE THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY/APRIL 17 WE HAD THE HIGHEST EVER SINGLE NOMINAL GAIN IN COMEX GOLD PRICING HISTORY AT $106.35 GAIN.. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER..
WE ALSO HAD A HUMONGOUS INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR APRIL AT 164.7185 TONNES/) TO WHICH WE ADDED + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
FINAL STANDING FOR APRIL; 201.443 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.800 TONNES
INITIAL STANDING FOR MAY: 35.4671 TONNES OF GOLD!
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $92.45 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 3142 OI CONTRACTS (9.47 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! THE RESULT: A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY FOR THE MARCH CONTRACT MONTH AND THE SAME FOR APRIL AND NOW MAY. CENTRAL BANKERS ARE NOW WAITING PATIENTLY FOR THEIR DELIVERY OF GOLD VIA SLOW MOVING SHIPS. WE HAVE A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF TONNES STANDING FOR GOLD IN MAY.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 550 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 439,159/NOW AT THE LOW END OF THE SCALE DESPITE THE HIGH PRICE OF GOLD!!
SILVER ALSO HAS A LOW COMEX OI OF 137,500 CONTRACTS!!
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3692 CONTRACTS WITH 3692 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 550 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3142 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1504 CONTRACTS ISSUED. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DURING THE COMEX SESSION THURSDAY WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR MOST OF THE LOSS IN PRICE
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (500 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 3692 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3142 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY AT 35.4671 TONNES ( WHICH WHICH INCLUDES OUR MASSIVE 6.3378 TONNES QUEUE JUMP)
NEW STANDING FOR GOLD, MAY CONTRACT: 35.4671 TONNES OF GOLD.
.
/ 3) SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION IN REMOVING SOME NET SPECULATOR LONGS, AS WE HAD 1)A $92.45 COMEX PRICE LOSS.. WE HAD 2) SOME NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED WITH OUR FAIR LOSS OF 3142 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES MUCH OF IT DUE TO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION// /./ ALSO, 3)STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE REWARDED THURSDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL AND THUS OUR HUGE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY.
4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN// 5) FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER (500 CONTRACTS)///STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1504 T.A.S.CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2025 INCLUDING TODAY
MAY INITIAL
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 2179 CONTRACTS OR 217900 OZ OR 6.779 TONNES IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1089 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 6.779 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2024, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 6.779 TONNES DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 0.190% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
2024 AND 2025:
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 360.03 TONNES THIRD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR EFP ISSUANCE
TOTAL 2024 YEAR. 3,597.846 TONNES
JAN. 2025: 257.919 TONNES (ISSUANCE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD THIS MONTH BUT MUCH LOWER THAN LAST MONTH)
FEB: 207.21 TONNES//EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE (WILL BE A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
MARCH 130.84 TONNES//QUITE SMALL THIS MONTH.
APRIL; 208.57 TONNES. STILL A SMALL TO FAIR ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH.
MAY: 6.779 TONNES OF GOLD EFP ISSUANCE
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF APRIL. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 356 CONTRACTS OI TO 137,013 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 500 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 500 and 0 ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 500 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 356 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 500 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 144 CONTRACTS DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.43 THE RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA.
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 0.720 MILLION PAPER OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.43 LOSS IN PRICE.
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS FRIDAY MORNING//THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.62 PTS OR .23%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 385.27 PTS OR 1.74%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 378.39 PTS OR 1.04% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.08%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2337 / Oil UP TO 58.62 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 61.70 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP ON LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING S:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING AT 7 XXXXX AND STRONGER//
UP 7.2337 AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN AND THUS STRONGER
END
ASIA TRADING FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3692 CONTRACTS TO 439,159 DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $92.45 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S // TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NUMBER OF NET LONGS WITH THAT PRICE LOSS FOR GOLD. AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW, OUR LOSS IN PRICE ALSO HAD A SMALL NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (550 ).
THE CME ANNOUNCED THURSDAY NIGHT, A 0 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR 0 OZ OR 0.0 TONNES. IN THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAD RECORDED A NEW RECORD 7 ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK AS THE BANK OF ENGLAND IS GETTING VERY ANTSY ABOUT GETTING ITS GOLD BACK. THUS OUR TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL STOOD AT 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL APRIL GOLD DELVERIES.
HISTORY: LAST THREE PRIOR MONTH’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK
IN MARCH:
THE TOTAL NO. OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (3 NOTICES) EQUALED: 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD WHICH WAS ADDED TO OUR MARCH DELIVERY TOTALS.
IN FEBRUARY:
WE HAD A HUGE FIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISKS ISSUANCES FOR GOLD, TOTALLING 18.4527 TONNES!.
THE RECIPIENT OF ALL OF THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND WHO DESPERATELY WANT THEIR LEASED GOLD BACK. THUS WE HAVE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES (CENTRAL BANKS) DEMANDING THEIR GOLD BACK:
- THE BANK OF ENGLAND
- THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK (NEED TO RETRIEVE THEIR LEASED GOLD FROM THE BIS)
THE COUNTERPARTY TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK ARE BULLION BANKS THAT CANNOT VERIFY THAT THEIR GOLD IS UNENCUMBERED AND THUS THE BUYER, THE CENTRAL BANK OF ENGLAND, ASSUMES THE RISK OF THAT DELIVERY. THIS IS THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK !!.(DEC THROUGH APRIL)
IN APRIL:
AND NOW WE CONCLUDED APRIL WITH 7 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR A TOTAL TONNAGE OF 8.3571 TONNES.
MAY: 0 ISSUED SO FAR…
DETAILS ON MAY COMEX MONTH//INITIAL
IN TOTAL WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3142 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. HOWEVER, OUR FRIENDLY PHYSICAL LONDON BOYS HAD ANOTHER FIELD DAY AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THEY WERE READY FOR THE FRBNY.S CONTINUED ORCHESTRATED ATTEMPTED AND FAILED RAID VERY EARLY IN THE COMEX SESSION AS THEY TRIED TO ABSORB EVERYTHING IN SIGHT FROM THE DAILY ATTACKS WITH THE CONTINUAL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. LONDONERS EXERCISED THEIR BOUGHT CONTRACTS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND THANKED THE FRBNY FOR THE THOUGHTFULNESS. LONDON ANNOUNCED LATE (JAN 30) THAT THEY WERE OUT OF GOLD. WRONGLY IT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO THEIR SHIPPING PHYSICAL GOLD TO COMEX FOR STORAGE DUE TO TRUMP’S INITIATION OF TARIFFS. THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT THIS GOLD LEFT LONDON TO CENTRAL BANKS, AND COMEX BANKS HAVE BEEN PAPERING THEIR LOSSES (DERIVATIVE) WITH KILOBAR ENTRIES. DELIVERY OF GOLD CONTRACTS ARE NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS. NO DEFAULT HAS BEEN INITIATED AS DEALERS ARE AFRAID OF LOSS OF THEIR JOBS. SO THIS FRAUD CONTINUES. THE LEASE RATES IN LONDON HAVE NOW REVERTED BACK TO 1% BUT GOLD IN LONDON IS STILL EXTREMELY SCARCE. WE CAN NOW SAFELY SAY THAT THERE IS A RUN ON A BANK AND THAT BANK IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND!!!
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH OF APRIL AND ONTO MAY, CONTINUED TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY ALTHOUGH THE T.A.S. ISSUANCES IN GOLD HAVE BEEN ON THE LOW SIDE COMPARED TO SILVER WHICH HAVE BEEN HUGE. TODAY’S NUMBER IS A LITTLE SMALLER THAN FROM OUR PREVIOUS FEW DAYS AT 1504 CONTRACTS
THE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF THESE T.AS. CONTRACTS IS WHY WE ARE HAVING DISTORTED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAINS AND LOSSES IN OI BUT THIS IS COUPLED WITH MEGA HUGE AMOUNTS OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE!!!!! AND THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE TOTALS WITH GOLD TONNES STANDING FOR APRIL AT 209 + TONNES INCLUDING MANY MASSIVE QUEUE JUMPS AND THIS CONTINUED INTO MAY AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW ANOTHER MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OCCURRED ON DAY 2 OF MAY’S DELIVERY CYCLE.
THE TONNAGE STANDING FOR GOLD FOR MAY IS NOW 35.4691 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES TODAY’S MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP)
THE FED IS THE OTHER MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 22+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES NOW THAT THEY MUST BECOME COMPLIANT TO BASEL III RULES JULY 1/2023 AS OUTLINED IN ANDREW MAGUIRE’S LATEST LIVE FROM THE VAULT 221 EPISODE. AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST THREE MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE BIS HAS GIVEN THE FED ITS MARCHING ORDERS TO COVER ITS PHYSICAL GOLD SHORT. TRUMP WILL PROBABLY BE FURIOUS WITH THE FED IF IT FINDS OUT THAT THEY (FRBNY) HAS BEEN MANIPULATING THE GOLD MARKET FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + ???? BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD IS SUPPOSED BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
EUROPE IS NOW BASEL III COMPLIANT. THE WEST (FED AND COMEX) MUST BE COMPLIANT BY JULY 1.2025.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF OUR TWO SPREADERS: 1) THE MONTH END SPREADERS AND 2. T.A.S DURING THESE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD, AND THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING EACH AND EVERY MONTH INCLUDING FIRST DAY NOTICE OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A SMALL SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A SMALL SIZED 550 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /JUNE 550 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 550 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD GENERALLY DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON BUT THEY ARE OUT!! THUS COMEX BECOMES THE MAJOR SOURCE FOR OUR CENTRAL BANKERS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 3142 CONTRACTS IN THAT 550 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 3142 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR MASSIVE LOSS IN PRICE OF $92.45 /// THURSDAY/ COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AS MENTIONED ABOVE. LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT RATS ARE FLEEING THE ARENA AS EVIDENCED BY THE LOWER OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX!
THE ENTIRE LOSS IN OI AT THE COMEX WAS DUE TO:
- FINALIZATION OF MONTH END SPREADERS
- LIQUIDATION OF OUR T.A.S. SPREADERS
- ZERO SPEC LIQUIDATION
T.A.S.SPREADER ISSUANCE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WAS A FAIR SIZED 1504 CONTRACTS,
THE RAIDS ON OPTIONS EXPIRY ACCOMPLISHED TWO IMPORTANT ASPECTS FOR OUR CROOKS:
- STALLS THE ADVANCE IN PRICE
- LOWERS THEIR ADVANCING DERIVATIVE LOSSES.
MECHANICS OF T.A.S CONTRACTS/DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH, APRIL AND MAY
THROUGHOUT THE FEW YEARS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD APRIL
// WE HAD A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: APRIL (209.573 TONNES//.CME CORRECTED//) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR ACTIVE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH. FEB HAD THE HIGHEST STANDING FOR GOLD EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH AT 256.607 TONNES
AND NOW LAST 5 MONTHS OF 2025: STANDING FOR GOLD
YEAR 2025:
JAN 2025:
113.30 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 43.408 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
FEB: 2025:
256.607 TONNES (WHICH INCLUDES 18.4567 TONNES OF EX FOR RISK)
MARCH:
STANDING FOR GOLD : 60.33 TONNES + 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 67.9479 TONNES WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
APRIL:
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD: 201.573 TONNES + 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 209.953 TONNES
MAY: INITIAL STANDING AT 28.945 INITAL GOLD TONNES STANDING FIRST DAY NOTICE PLUS 6.3378 TONNES QUEUE JUMP MAY 2 = 35.4671 TONNES
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HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 52 MONTHS OF 2021-2025:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022: STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024/STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 80.4230 TONNES PLUS DEC MONTH EXCHANGE FOR RISK TOTAL 14.6836 TONNES EQUALS 95.1066 TONNES
total year 2024: 540.30 tonnes
2025 STANDING FOR GOLD/COMEX
January 2025: 70.102 TONNES + 43.208 EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 113.310 TONNES
FEBRUARY:/NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 238.153TONNES +18.4527 EX FOR RISK
= 256.607 TONNES. THIS IS THE HIGHEST EVER MONTH FOR GOLD STANDING IN COMEX HISTORY
MARCH: 67.9479 TONNES (INCLUDES 7.6179 TONNES EX FOR RISK)
APRIL: 209.953 TONNES (INCLUDES 8.3571 TONNES EX FOR RISK/AND ALL MONTHLY QUEUE JUMPING)
MAY: STANDING NOW 35.4671 TONNES
COMEX GOLD TRADING/MAY CONTRACT MONTH
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY A HUGE $92.45/ /)/BUT THEY WERE A LITTLE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME APPRECIABLE NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS IN OI FROM TWO EXCHANGES. AND AS EXPLAINED ABOVE WE HAD SOME T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION THURSDAY AS THEY WERE STILL TRYING TO QUELL GOLD’S ATTEMPT AT FURTHER INCREASES ABOVE $3,400 AND STOP HUGE COMEX/OTC DERIVATIVE LOSSES FROM EXPLODING AS THEY SUCCEEDED IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO STOP THE PENETRATION OF OUR $3,400 DOLLAR GOLD BARRIER SO FAR.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
THE CROOKS HOWEVER COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, THEY EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING/FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS OUR HUGE NUMBER OF GOLD CONTRACTS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX. CENTRAL BANKERS WAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE GOLD TO ARRIVE BY BOAT. IT IS NOW TAKING SEVERAL WEEKS TO DELIVER AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE HUGE LEASE RATE AT 10% (SCARCITY OF GOLD) THIS PAST MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK EXPLANATION/FEB THROUGH /MAY TRADING
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR FEBRUARY://FINISHES AT 4 ISSUANCES
THE CME ANNOUNCED TO THE WORLD THAT ON FEB 4 THEY ISSUED 100 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO THE BANK OF ENGLAND.THEN ,FEB 4 THEY ISSUED THEIR SECOND CONSECUTIVE EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 500 CONTRACTS FOR 50,000 OZ (1.555 TONNES OF GOLD. FEB 6 WAS THE THIRD ISSUANCE FOR A HUGE 2400 CONTRACTS, 240,000 OZ OR 7.465 TONNES. AND THEN FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 4TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED REPRESENTED BY 2834 CONTRACTS OR 283400 OZ OR 8.8149 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE OWNER OF THOSE CONTRACTS BEING THE BANK OF ENGLAND. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WANTS THEIR GOLD BACK. THIS NEW EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ADDED TO PREVIOUS EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 9.3264 TONNES TO A NEW TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 18.1413 TONNES. IN MID WEEK WE HAD ANOTHER .3114 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCED//NEW TOTAL 18,4527 TONNES!..FINALLY THIS TOTAL WAS ADDED TO OUR REGULAR DELIVERIES THROUGH THE MONTH.
EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS/MONTH FOR MARCH
EARLY IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD OUR FIRST EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACT ISSUANCE IN MARCH FOR 150 CONTRACTS REPRESENTING 15,000 OZ OF GOLD OR .46656 TONNES. THE BANK OF ENGLAND WAS STILL NOT SATISFIED AS THEY NEED TO RETRIEVE ALL OF ITS LOST GOLD THROUGH LEASING! THE 15,000 OZ WAS ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY TOTAL.
MARCH ISSUES IT’S THIRD EXCHANGE FOR RISK: TOTAL FOR THE MONTH FINISHED AT 3
TOTAL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MARCH 28 TOTALS 2200 CONTRACTS FOR 6.8429 TONNES OF GOLD. PRIOR ISSUANCE: .7775 TONNES. THUS TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR MARCH : 7.6179 TONNES OF GOLD. MARCH BECOMES THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE.
APRIL, ISSUED ITS 7TH EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 187 CONTRACTS OR 18,700 OZ OR 0.5816 TONNES
SUMMARY EXCHANGE FOR RISK/APRIL//TOTAL ISSUANCES 7 FOR 8.3571 TONNES OF GOLD!
ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON FIRST DAY NOTICE//APRILL MONTH// WAS 700 CONTRACTS FOR 70,000 OZ OR 2.177 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD (APRIL 4) : 250 CONTRACTS FOR 25,000 OZ OR .777 TONNES, APRIL 7 ISSUANCE OF 280 CONTRACTS FOR 28,000 OZ OR .8709 TONNES THEN APRIL 9 484 CONTRACTS FOR 48400 OZ OR 1.5054 TONNES AND FINALLY MONDAY MORNING APRIL 14 AT 200 CONTRACTS FOR 20,000 OZ OR .5816 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 24: 600 CONTRACTS FOR 60,000 OZ OR 1.866 TONNES AND NOW APRIL 25 187 CONTRACTS FOR 18700 OZ OR .5816 TONNES//NEW FINAL TOTAL ISSUANCE FOR APRIL: 8.3571 TONNES!!. APRIL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK MEANS WE NOW HAVE 5 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE. THESE DELIVERIES WERE ADDED TO OUR NORMAL DELIVERY CYCLE.
MAY ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = ZERO SO FAR!
FINAL STANDING FOR GOLD NOW FOR APRIL:
APRIL: 201.573 TONNES +(8.3571 EX FOR RISK// FOR APRIL DELIVERY MONTH =209.953 TONNES OF THE GOLD. THIS IS THE 2ND HIGHEST AMOUNT OF DELIVERY GOLD WHICH FOLLOWS THE HIGHEST EVER ON AN ACTIVE MONTH GOLD DELIVERY BEING FEB 2025 AT 256.607 TONNES..
ANALYSIS MAY DELIVERY MONTH GOING INTO FIRST DAY NOTICE MAY CONTRACT
WE HAVE LOST A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 9.77 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR MAY FIRST RECORDED AT 28.945 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE. WE HAD A MASSIVE 2036 CONTRACT QUEUE JUMP FOR 203,600 OZ OR 6.3328 TONNES AND THIS QUEUE JUMP IS THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED IN COMEX HISTORY THIS QUEUE JUMP IS CENTRAL BANKS JUMPING AHEAD OF US MORTALS DEMANDING GOLD FOR THEIR RESERVES. THUS NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 35.4671 TONNES OF GOLD.
THUS MAY STANDING FOR GOLD SO FAR: 35.4671 TONNES
ALL OF THIS HUGE STANDING WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $92.45
WE HAD A HUGE 3465 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. AND THIS IS TOTALLY INSANE AS WELL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3142 CONTRACTS OR 314,200 0Z (9.77 TONNES)
confirmed volume THURSDAY 236,137.. contracts: fair volume////
//speculators have left the gold arena
END
MAY
// THE MAY 2025 GOLD CONTRACT
MAY 2
INITIAL
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | . withdrawals: 5 entries a)) Out of Loomis: 46,586.799 oz (1449 kilobars) b) Out of Asahi 11,350.451 oz (353 kilobars) c) Out of JPMorgan 1929.057 oz 60 kilobars d) Out of Int.Delaware 32,151.000 oz (1000 kilobars) e) Out of Malca 99,925.308 oz (3108 kilobars) total withdrawal: 191,942.615 oz(5970 kilobars) 5.970 tonnes of gold |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 ENTRIES |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | we have 1 customer entries we have 1 customer entry deposits i) Into Loomis: 14,435.797 oz 449 kilobars 0.449 tonnes xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxI |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 2024 notice(s) 202,400 OZ 6.295 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 101 contracts 10100 OZ 0.3141 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 11,302 notices 1,130,200 oz 35.153 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month |
dealer deposits: 0 entry
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
we have 1 customer entries
we have 1 customer entry deposits
i) Into Loomis: 14,435.797 oz
449 kilobars
0.449 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
withdrawals:
withdrawals:
5 entries
a)) Out of Loomis: 46,586.799 oz (1449 kilobars)
b) Out of Asahi 11,350.451 oz (353 kilobars)
c) Out of JPMorgan 1929.057 oz 60 kilobars
d) Out of Int.Delaware 32,151.000 oz (1000 kilobars)
e) Out of Malca 99,925.308 oz (3108 kilobars)
total withdrawal: 191,942.615 oz(5970 kilobars)
5.970 tonnes of gold
adjustments: 2//first: Brinks//dealer to customer:
a) Brinks 67,227.741 oz
second JPMorgan//customer to dealer:
b) 10,006.607 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR MAY
THE FRONT MONTH OF MAY STANDS AT 2125 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 1901 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 135 CONTRACTS SERVED ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED A WHOPPING 2036 CONTRACTS OR 203,600 OZ FOR 6.3328 TONNES THE HIGHEST EVER QUEUE JUMP EVER RECORDED IN COMEX HISTORY.
JUNE LOST 7711 CONTRACTS TO 314,997 DUE TO THE RAID. JUNE BECOMES OUR NEW FRONT MONTH AND THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF A DELIVERY MONTH.
JULY ADDED 9 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 505
We had 2024 contracts filed for today representing 202,400 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 7 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 2024 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 15 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for MAY /2025. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11,302 X 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (2125 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (2024 x 100 oz per contract) equals 1,140,300 OZ OR 35.4671 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month: No of notices filed so far (11,302 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of MAY (2125 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (2024 x 100 oz) which equals 1,140.300 OZ OR 35.4671 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR MAY.: 35.4671 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. FEBRUARY HAD THE HIGHEST DELIVERY FOR ANY MONTH AND APRIL WAS SECOND..
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,793,244.300 oz 55.77 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD 41,275,539.138 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 21,822,258.462 or 678.76 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 19,453.280.676 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 20,028,981oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 622.98tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
// THE APRIL 2025 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
MAY 2
INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2 withdrawal entries i) Out of CNT 1,209,255.917 oz ii) Out of Loomis: 1823,690.990 oz total withdrawal: 3,032,946.907 oz |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 0/ entry |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 2 deposit entries ii)HSBC 643,300.204 oz iii) JPMorgan 1,239,911,900 oz total withdrawal: 1,883,211.204 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 267 CONTRACT(S) (1.335 MILLION OZ |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1168 contract (5.840 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 12,884 Contracts (64.420million oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
0 entries/dealer
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
deposits customer side
2 deposit entries
ii)HSBC
643,300.204 oz
iii) JPMorgan
1,239,911,900 oz
total deposit: 1,883,211.204 oz
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx) withdrawal customer acct
2 withdrawal entries
i) Out of CNT 1,209,255.917 oz
ii) Out of Loomis: 1823,690.990 oz
total withdrawal: 3,032,946.907 oz
ADJUSTMENTs 1//customer to dealer CNT
783,509.64 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 207.155million oz/498.978 oz million or 41.48%
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 166.505 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 498.978Million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR MAY
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF MAY /2025 OI: 1400 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 693 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 925 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 219 CONTRACTS WHICH UNDERWENT A STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 1.160 MILLION OZ. HOWEVER SADLY I MUST REPORT A SECOND CONSECUTIVE CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF 147 CONTRACTS FOR 0.735 MILLION OZ. THE RECIPIENT OF THAT LARGESS WAS THE CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA. THUS THE NEW TOTAL FOR TWO ISSUANCES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK IS 12.93 MILLION OZ.
JUNE SAW A GAIN OF 63 CONTRACTS UP TO 3381 CONTRACTS.
JULY LOST 114 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 111,036
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 267 or 1.335 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 47,807 fair//
AND NOW MAY DELIVERIES:
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 12,885 X5,000 oz = 64.420 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (1400) AND the number of notices served upon today (267 )x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the MAY 2025 contract month: (12,885) Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of MAY(1400) minus number of notices served upon today (267)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the MAY contract month equating to 70.085 MILLION OZ . THEN WE MUST ADD OUR NEW 12.93 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SILVER: 83.015 MILLION OZ
New total standing: 83.015 million oz which is huge for this NON active delivery month of MAY.
KNOW WONDER THE COMEX INVENTORY MOVEMENTS ARE GOING CRAZY!!!
We must also keep in mind that there is considerable silver standing in London coming from our longs in New York that underwent EFP transfers.
There are 163.205million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS
MAY 2 WITH GOLD UP $ 18.40 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 945.41 TONNES
MAY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $ 92,45 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 944.26 TONNES
APRIL30 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.05 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 947.13 TONNES
APRIL29 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.45 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES
APRIL28 WITH GOLD UP $50.20 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.27 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 946.27 TONNES
APRIL25 WITH GOLD DOWN $49.95 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVEV WITHDRAWAL OF 3.911 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 948.56 TONNES
APRIL24 WITH GOLD UP $54.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.471 TONNES
APRIL23 WITH GOLD DOWN $124.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 9.47 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.70 TONNES
APRIL22 WITH GOLD DOWN $7,75 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 6.89 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES
APRIL21 WITH GOLD UP $98.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 952.28 TONNES
APRIL17 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.85 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 957.17 TONNES
APRIL16 WITH GOLD UP $12.90 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL15 WITH GOLD UP $106.35 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL14 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 953.15 TONNES
APRIL11 WITH GOLD UP $67.70 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 13.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 949.71 TONNES
/APRIL10 WITH GOLD UP $100.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 937.09 TONNES
APRIL9 WITH GOLD UP $83.50 TODAY// MEGA HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 11.171 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 936.23 TONNES
APRIL8 WITH GOLD UP $17.50 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 6.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 926.78 TONNES
APRIL3 WITH GOLD DOWN $27.85 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 0.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.94 TONNES
APRIL2 WITH GOLD UP $10.00 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.37 TONNES
APRIL1 WITH GOLD DOWN $3.55 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 933.38 TONNES
MARCH 31 WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 931.94 TONNES
MARCH 28 WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.65 TONNES
MARCH 27 WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF .29 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD. ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.65 TONNES
MARCH 26 WITH GOLD UP $31.60 TODAY// NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.36 TONNES
MARCH 25 WITH GOLD UP $13.90 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/ ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 929.07 TONNES
MARCH 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.10 TODAY// HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 20.08 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 930.51 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 945.41 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
MAY 2 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19 /MASSIVE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 450.424 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 0.683 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.972 MILLION OZ
APRIL30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.364 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.289 MILLION OZ
APRIL29 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 3.229 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 451.925 MILLION OZ
APRIL28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.136 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.696 MILLION OZ
APRIL25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.44 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.639 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.832 MILLION OZ
APRIL24 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE DEPOSIT OF 4.771 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.471 MILLION OZ
APRIL23 WITH SILVER UP $0.65 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.27 MILLIO9N OZ FROM THE SLV ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.70 MILLION OZ
APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL22 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL21 WITH SILVER UP $0.15 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 0.545 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.56 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.183 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 453.426 MILLION
APRIL16 WITH SILVER UP $0.70 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 3.002 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 452.243 MILLION
APRIL15 WITH SILVER UP $0.07 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION
APRIL14 WITH SILVER UP $0/23 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.273 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.241 MILLION
APRIL11 WITH SILVER UP $1.18 /BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.911 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 449.71 MILLION
APRIL10 WITH SILVER UP $0.18 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDDRAWAL OF 0.501 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.603 MILLION
APRIL9 WITH SILVER UP $0.96 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 0.683 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.104 MILLION
APRIL8 WITH SILVER UP $0.35 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 1.137 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447,421 MILLION
APRIL3 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.84 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.138 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 446.830 MILLION
APRIL2 WITH SILVER UP 0.15 /SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF .364 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.968 MILLION
APRIL1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.36 /NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.332 MILLION
MARCH 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.28 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 0.91000 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.332 MILLION
MARCH 28 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.092 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 447.422 MILLION
MARCH 27 WITH SILVER UP $.60 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.514 MILLION
MARCH 26 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.21 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 6.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 448.514 MILLION
MARCH 25 WITH SILVER UP $0.63 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 13.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 454.883 MILLION
MARCH 24 WITH SILVER UP $0.04 /HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.728 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 441.234 MILLION
CLOSING INVENTORY 450.428 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
PETER SCHIFF
2, EGON VON GREYERZ
ALASDAIR MACLEOD
Mayday markdowns
Gold is consolidating its rise from mid-December. The May Day holiday in China and with much of Europe shut as well, was an opportunity for the Comex shorts to punish the longs.
| Alasdair MacleodMay 2∙Paid |
This morning marks the ninth trading session since gold briefly hit $3500. And yesterday saw a dramatic markdown which commenced after the end of the previous afternoon session on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. This morning, gold was trading in Europe at $3255, down $65 from last Friday’s close. And silver traded at $32.55, down 52 cents on the same time-scale.
It was the end for May contracts on Comex. The previous Thursday saw options expiry, which goes some way to explaining why gold was hit hard after rising to $3500 the day before. So, first it was options expiry, pause, and then contract expiry. These negative forces are now behind us. Incidentally, current Shanghai futures run to the 15th May offering short-term leverage to Chinese speculators, should they wish to return as buyers next week.
They seemed to return modestly on the bull tack last night, with gold tiptoeing higher. We will have to see how it pans out today, bearing in mind that at the time of writing, Shanghai futures have shut down for the weekend. It would be a mistake to think that now that Comex is looking at new futures contracts that it will be plain-sailing for the bulls.
On the plus side, we can be sure that the real money is ignoring paper volatility and looking to benefit from any bullion being shaken out. But there is so little of that, that genuine buyers are still turning to standing for delivery on Comex. Since the Easter break, 34.5 tonnes of gold have been stood for delivery, and a whopping 1,993 tonnes of silver thanks to a record 11,692 contracts on Wednesday — an all-time one-day record.
The squeeze on Comex silver is very much in evidence, as our next chart shows:
The arrows clearly show how since early-April, the price has rallied while open interest has fallen. In other words, instead of the usual situation where prices rise on increasing buying volumes, silver has risen on lower buying interest. It can only be an uncomfortable squeeze on the shorts. Pitiful and declining volume in the silver contract confirms.
For silver bulls, it might feel like Waiting for Godot, but the technical setup is very positive, shown next:
With respect to gold, we can only conclude that pricing is no longer driven by London and Comex. Comex can only use opportunities such as China’s Mayday break to take charge. But the reality is that gold is now predominantly a physical market dominated by Shanghai. And recently, China’s authorities announced that for the first time ever the Shanghai Gold Exchange is going to open vaults outside China to allow trading for gold in yuan.
Obviously, this is a major step in the death for the dollar as the currency medium for international trade. It could be the future basis for linking the offshore yuan to gold. As to where these vaults will be located we are not told, but following Xi’s visit to ASEAN trading partners it would make sense to extend the yuan to the entire East Asian region to drive out the dollar for ASEAN trade.
Presumably, China has no current intention of fixing a gold/yuan exchange rate, but the option is there for the future. Besides the volatility on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, there is increasing demand from Chinese households for gold bank accounts and gold accumulation plans. With low interest rates and the threat of a weakening yuan, plus the absence of credible investment alternatives, there is as much as $2.5 trillion equivalent in annual Chinese household savings overhanging the gold market.
Chinese households are little different from savers in western capital markets, only just becoming aware that gold is in a bull market. They will be looking for opportunities to buy, relected in increasing totals for ETFs:
For Chinese households, ETFs are not the favoured form of gold investment, gold saving products offered by banks being preferred. But the soaring increase over the last 18 months is an indication of investor sentiment. Chinese households are definitely going for gold.
Meanwhile, gold has begun to flow out of Comex warehouses, as shown next:
Some of this has returned to London, where LBMA vaults recorded a slight increase (0.14%) in March over February — a trend likely to continue:
For now, wider sentiment in western capital markets is on pause. The fall in the dollar has stopped, equities have recovered somewhat, and bond yields have drifted lower. With increasing evidence of recession (US GDP growth was reported to have declined 0.3% in the last quarter), investors are uncertain.
What they miss is that the debt/credit bubble is becoming unstable. And as that bursts, equities fall, bond yields rise, and the economy tanks. As this realisation begins to take hold of markets, the dollar will begin its next decline, driving safe-haven demand for both gold and silver.
3. C Powell and Gata dispatches
4. ANDREW MAGUIRE PODCAST 221
LIVE FROM THE VAULT NO 221 WITH ANDREW MAGUIRE
5B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:COMMODITY//RARE EARTHS
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
ASIA TRADING FRIDAY MORNING THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 7.62 PTS OR .23%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 385.27 PTS OR 1.74%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 378.39 PTS OR 1.04% //Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.08%
//Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED OFFSHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2337 / Oil UP TO 58.62 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP TO 61.70 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING UP ON LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING S:/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING AT 7 XXXXX AND STRONGER//
UP 7.2337 AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN AND THUS STRONGER
END
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1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS /FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED XXXX (CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MANIPULATED)
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2337 (CCP MANIPULATED)
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN AT 7.62 PTS OR 0.23%
HANG SENG CLOSED UP AT 385.27 PTS OR 1.74%
2. Nikkei closed UP 378.36 PTS OR 1.04
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 99.58// EURO RISES TO 1.1342 UP 47 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.261//Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 144.49…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: XX OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR DOWN this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.4830/Italian 10 Yr bond yield U to 3.588 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.129%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.324
3j Gold at $3263.30 Silver at: 32.35 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 86 /100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 82.80
3m oil into the 59 dollar handle for WTI and 61 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 144.49// 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.261% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8235 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9341 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.227 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.725 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.713 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.57
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.4720 DOWN 1 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.124 UP 2 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.714 UP 2 PTS
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2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rise Ahead Of Payrolls After China Hints At Trade Talks
Friday, May 02, 2025 – 08:24 AM
US equity futures gained ahead of the April Payolls report, but were well of their highs, after China said it is assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US, the first sign that negotiations could begin between the two sides since Donald Trump hiked tariffs last month. As of 8:10am ET, S&P futures are up 0.4% while Nasdaq 100 contracts add 0.2%, limited by weakness in the tech sector as Apple and Amazon.com shares fall in premarket after their respective updates appeared to underwhelm investors. If the S&P 500 closes in the green on Friday, it would mark a ninth day of gains, the longest winning streak for the US benchmark since November 2004. Asian markets were also broadly higher and Europe’s Estoxx 50 advances 1.5% in early London session, with risk sentiment stoked after China hinted at the possibility of trade talks. Bond yields are unchanged, reversing an earlier drop, oil and USD are both lower, while gold rebounds +0.7% from recent losses. Today, all eyes on NFP at 8.30am ET to assess market sentiment; Consensus expects a 138k print vs. 228k prior and the Unemployment Rate to hold at 4.2% (more in the full preview here).
In premarket trading, Apple falls 3% after the iPhone maker reported China sales that were disappointing, and warned about the impact of tariffs. Amazon.com slips 0.5% after the e-commerce and cloud-computing company gave a weaker-than-expected outlook for operating income as tariff uncertainties weigh. Here are the other Mag7s: Alphabet +0.8%, Meta +1%, Nvidia +1.1%, Microsoft +0.3%, Tesla +0.4%. US-listed Chinese stocks rise as Beijing says its assessing the possibility of trade talks with America (Alibaba (BABA) +3%, Baidu (BIDU) +2%, NetEase (NTES) +1.3%). Airbnb (ABNB) fell 5% after issuing a weak outlook for the second quarter, citing economic uncertainties for softer travel demand in the US. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Ardelyx (ARDX) drops 17% after the biotech firm’s first-quarter revenue missed estimates,
- Atlassian (TEAM) sinks 17% after the software company gave an outlook that analysts are cautious about, although Barclays questioned the scale of the stock’s drop.
- Block (XYZ) sinks 21% after the financial services and digital payments company cut its adjusted operating income guidance for the full year.
- Chevron Corp. (CVX) slips 2% as the company will reduce share buybacks this quarter after oil prices tumbled.
- Cytokinetics (CYTK) falls 11% after the drug developer said US regulators need more time to review a safety plan for the company’s experimental heart drug aficamten.
- Duolingo (DUOL) gains 8% after raising its full-year sales and profit outlook as artificial intelligence offerings drive users to its higher-priced subscriptions.
- Exact Sciences (EXAS) gains 11% after the maker of the Cologuard cancer test boosted its revenue and adjusted Ebitda forecasts for the full year following a largely better-than-expected first quarter.
- Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) climbs about 1% after the company met earnings estimates due to higher production from low-cost projects, allowing it to maintain its share buybacks despite the recent drop in crude prices.
- Ingersoll Rand (IR), a company that makes equipment designed to control the flow of energy such as air and gas compressors, falls 4% after the reducing its full year adjusted Ebitda forecast.
- LendingTree (TREE) declines 13% after the online loan marketplace cut its revenue guidance for the full year. The company also trimmed the upper end of its forecast range for year adjusted Ebitda.
- Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) declines 15% after announcing a delay in the release date of Grand Theft Auto VI.
- Twilio (TWLO) rises 8% after the communications software firm boosted some fiscal year forecasts.
- Reddit (RDDT) rises 8% after the social-networking company gave a second-quarter forecast that beat expectations.
Optimism is steadily fueling an equity comeback. If the S&P 500 closes in the green on Friday, it would mark the longest winning streak for the US benchmark since November 2004. Indeed, investors are now betting on a more market-friendly stance from President Donald Trump in the coming months, and fears about a US recession could diminish further if Friday’s key jobs report shows resilience, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
“It seems we may have reached peak policy uncertainty,” said Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at Carmignac in Paris. “There are talks ongoing, and Trump seems to have watered down some of his policies. If you add in that the earnings season has been fairly positive, the overall backdrop isn’t that bad.”
Even so, bets are rising the Federal Reserve will be forced to accelerate interest rate cuts to head off an economic slowdown. Money markets are pricing in almost four quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, one more than was anticipated before Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2.
Meanwhile, economists expect the jobs report to show only 138,000 new positions added in April after the data blew away expectations in March. The surveys behind the report were conducted the second week of April, when Trump put some levies on hold and sharply raised those on China goods (full preview here).
European stocks followed their Asian counterparts higher The Stoxx 600 is up 0.8%, led by gains in mining, technology and construction names. Utilities underperform. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:
- ING shares rise as much as 5.7% as analysts welcome the Dutch bank’s ‘solid’ first-quarter results and net profit beat, while warning the increase to CET1 guidance by year end may disappoint investors.
- Shell shares rise as much as 4.4% in London after the oil major’s first-quarter profit beat expectations, and it announced a $3.5 billion buyback.
- Commodity stocks are outperforming in Europe on Friday as oil and metal prices got a boost after China said it was evaluating having trade talks with the US, raising optimism that negotiations could reduce tariffs between the two largest economies.
- NatWest shares rose as much as 4.5%, hitting their highest level since 2011, after the UK bank delivered a profit beat to mark a “strong start” to 2025, according to RBC Capital Markets.
- Danske Bank shares rise as much as 3.9% after reporting pretax profits that beat estimates, driven by better-than-expected net interest income and fee income.
- SSP Group shares rise as much as 7.4% after a Financial Times report issued after the close on Thursday said activist investor Irenic Capital Management is building a stake in the catering and food concession company and plans to push management to boost profitability.
- Atalaya Mining shares jump as much as 6.6%, hitting their highest level since early October, after it was confirmed the copper-focused firm will join the FTSE 250.
- Colruyt shares fall as much as 19%, the steepest drop since September 2022, after the Belgian retailer cut its full-year guidance, citing stronger competition in the domestic market and lower-than-anticipated food inflation.
- Landis + Gyr shares fall as much as 8.2% after the Swiss energy management firm reported 2024 results that Vontobel analysts say were below expectations and cut its dividend.
- BASF shares fall as much as 3.3% after the German chemicals firm said uncertainty caused by US trade tactics means it can’t make reliable predictions for its business this year.
Earlier, Asian stocks surged to their highest level more than five weeks in broader regional rally after China said it was mulling trade talks with the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.8% to the highest since March 25, with TSMC, Alibaba and Tencent among the biggest boosts. The key regional gauge is on track for a third-straight week of gains in the rebound from Donald Trump’s tariff offensive. Taiwan’s benchmark advanced more than 2% Friday, leading gains around the region as many markets reopened after holidays. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed more than 1% after China’s Commerce Ministry said it was assessing the possibility of trade talks with the Washington, the first sign since Trump hiked tariffs last month that negotiations could begin. Mainland markets remain shut. Australia and Singapore are gearing up for federal elections to be held on Saturday, with cost-of-living issues top of mind for voters in both nations. Australian stocks rose for a seventh straight day ahead of the vote, while shares were higher in Singapore on Friday.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.4%. The Aussie dollar and Swedish krona are leading gains against the greenback. EUR/USD rose 0.3% to 1.1329; GBP/USD rose 0.1% to 1.3229
In rates, treasuries are flat ahead of the US jobs report, as 10-year yields reverse a 2 bpsdrop to trade flat at 4.22%. Gilts outperform, with UK 10-year yields falling 7 bps to 4.41%. Bunds fall, with little reaction shown to euro-area CPI which rose slightly more than expected in April.
In commodities, oil prices decline as traders weigh the possibility of US-China trade talks and a fresh sanctions threat against Iranian flows against a potential supply hike from OPEC+. WTI falls 0.8% to $58.80 a barrel. Spot gold rises $22 to around $3,260/oz. Bitcoin edges up 0.3% toward $97,000.
Looking at today’s calendar, the highlight is April jobs report (8:30am), and March factory orders and durable goods orders (10am)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini +0.3%
- Nasdaq 100 mini +0.2%
- Russell 2000 mini +0.8%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.9%
- DAX +1.5%
- CAC 40 +1.4%
- 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.2%
- VIX -0.5 points at 24.08
- Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.4% at 1224.77
- euro +0.3% at $1.1328
- WTI crude -0.8% at $58.74/barrel
Top Overnight News
- China said Friday it was weighing starting talks with the U.S. to halt a trade war, but only if Washington shows sincerity through concrete measures such as by canceling tariffs against Beijing. WSJ
- China has started to exempt some goods from tariffs that may cover about $40 billion, or a quarter of its imports from the US, to soften the blow of the trade war on its own economy. BBG
- Japan’s chief negotiator expressed hopes of reaching a trade agreement with the US in June, even as a media report indicated the two sides remained at odds on the key issue of its car exports. BBG
- The US is working to ensure tensions between India and Pakistan don’t escalate, JD Vance said. He also told Fox News India will be among the first trade deals done. BBG
- US President Trump is planning to release his FY 2026 budget on Friday, according to Axios. It was separately reported that President Trump is to propose slashing USD 163bln in government programs in budget blueprint: WSJ.
- US Envoy told NATO allies that US President Trump may skip the NATO summit; Trump may not attend if there is no 5% spending target agreement: Spiegel
- Eurozone CPI for Apr runs hot on headline (+2.2% vs. the Street +2.1%) and esp. on core (+2.7% vs. the Street +2.5%, and up from +2.4% in Mar) BBG.
- US bank reserves dropped by $209 billion to $3 trillion in the week through April 30. That’s the lowest since Jan. 1 and the biggest weekly decline this year. BBG
- Apple added to fears about levies, warning its costs will jump by $900 million this quarter. Amazon cut its operating profit projections, saying it expects to be “materially affected” by tariffs, FX fluctuations and recession worries. AAPL -3.15% premkt, AMZN -85bps. BBG
- America’s money managers are more bearish today than they have been in nearly 30 years. Barron’s latest Big Money poll of professional investors finds 32% of respondents bearish on the outlook for stocks over the next 12 months—the highest percentage since at least 1997. BBG
Trade/Tariffs
- US Department of Commerce launched the Section 232 steel and aluminium inclusions process which allows US manufacturers and trade associations to request the inclusion of new derivative articles under Section 232 steel and aluminium tariffs, according to a statement cited by Reuters.
- De minimis exception for products from China and Hong Kong imported to the US is now voided, as scheduled.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said the Chinese want to meet and talk, while he added those talks will come up soon and there’s a broader question about how much we should buy from China going forward.
- China is said to be conducting an assessment on US trade negotiations and urged the US to demonstrate sincerity for trade talks, while it urged the US to correct mistakes regarding tariffs and noted it is currently evaluating possible US trade talks.
- China’s MOFCOM said the tariff and trade war was unilaterally initiated by the US and the US should show its sincerity in talks, while it added the US has repeatedly expressed its willingness to negotiate with China on the tariff issue and has recently taken the initiative to convey information to the Chinese side through relevant parties on several occasions, hoping to talk with the Chinese side. MOFCOM added that China’s position has always been the same: ‘talk, the door is open,’ as well as noted the US should show sincerity if it wants to talk and that in any possible dialogue or meeting if the US does not correct its unilateral tariff measures, it has no sincerity at all. Furthermore, it stated the US should be prepared to take action in correcting erroneous practices and cancelling unilateral tariffs.
- Japanese PM Ishiba said there is no change at all to Japan’s stance of requesting the US to cancel tariffs, while he added they are not in a situation where common ground has been found yet but he received a report from Economic Minister Akazawa that talks were forward-looking. Furthermore, Ishiba commented that reaching a deal in haste is not necessarily in the best interest.
- Japanese Finance Minister Kato said Japan’s huge US Treasury holdings are among the tools it can wield in trade negotiations with the US but added that whether Japan wields that card is a different question.
- Japan’s Economic Minister Akazawa said that US tariff negotiations lasted for 130 minutes and they were able to have a thorough discussion in which repeated its request for a review of tariffs on Japan, while they talked about how Japan can expand trade, non-tariff measures and economic security with the US. Akazawa said they told the US that tariff measures are regrettable and they want to hold the next meeting after mid-May, while they asked the US to review tariff measures on auto parts and the negotiation was handled as a package. Furthermore, they did not talk about China during the talks and he understands that the US wants to reach some kind of agreement within the 90-day window with various countries.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mostly higher as many regional participants returned from the Labor Day holiday and with some hopes for US-China trade talks. ASX 200 gained with the advances led by outperformance in the energy sector following the upside in oil prices and with a continuation of the status quo seen as the outcome in tomorrow’s federal election with Australian PM Albanese highly favoured to win a second term. Nikkei 225 rallied at the open but is off intraday highs after stalling near the 37,000 level and following a surprise increase in Japan’s unemployment rate. Hang Seng outperformed on return from the holiday closure and despite the continued absence of mainland participants, while there were reports that China is currently evaluating possible US trade talks and noted that the US has repeatedly expressed its willingness to negotiate with China on the tariff issue, although it urged the US to demonstrate sincerity for trade talks and correct its unilateral tariff measures.
Top Asian news
- China-linked group was accused of meddling in Australia’s election with the Chinese Communist Party-linked Australia Hubei Association said to have mobilised volunteers to support an independent candidate ahead of Saturday’s federal election in Australia, according to Nikkei.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +1%) are entirely in the green as the region returns from holiday; sentiment today has been boosted following a strong session on Wall Street in the prior session, and mostly positive APAC trade overnight. Price action has been relatively rangebound and near recent highs, with traders ultimately cautious ahead of the day’s key US NFP report. European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Tech tops the pile, followed closely by Industrials (lifted by post-earning strength in Airbus) whilst Utilities is found at the foot of the pile. A number of banks reported today; Standard Chartered (+1%, strong Q1 results), ING (+4.5%, reported record deposit growth and launched EUR 2bln share buyback), Danske Bank (+4%, strong results across the board and guidance range topped expectations), NatWest (+1.9%, Q1 headline figures beat expectations and suggested 2025 income to be at top-end of guidance range).
Top European news
- UK by-election: Reform wins Runcorn and Helsby by a margin of six votes with 38.7% of the total vote.
FX
- USD is currently softer vs. all major peers with DXY snapping a run of 3 consecutive sessions of gains which have in part been driven by the recent recovery in US risk assets. This in part has been driven by the performance of corporate America in Q1 earnings season and hopes of a US-China trade deal. On the former, reports suggest that China is conducting an assessment on US trade negotiations and evaluating possible US trade talks. DXY currently sits within Thursday’s 99.61-100.37 range.
- EUR firmer vs. the USD and one of the better performers across the majors. From a fundamental perspective, attention has been on comments from EU negotiator Sefcovic who said Europe is ready to make US President Trump an offer, in which Brussels wants to increase purchases of US goods by EUR 50bln to address the “problem” in the trade relationship. On the data front, EZ HICP Flash metrics incrementally topped expectations, but ultimately had little impact on the Single-Currency.
- USD/JPY initially extended on the prior day’s BoJ-spurred upward momentum but then pulled back from resistance just shy of the 146.00 level. There was little reaction seen following reports of US-Japan tariff talks or comments from Japanese Finance Minister Kato who said Japan’s huge US Treasury holdings are among tools it can wield in trade negotiations with the US but added whether Japan wields that card is a different question. More recently, a report in the Nikkei suggested that US trade negotiators presented a framework for an agreement with Japan, however, Japan strongly opposed the proposal. In recent trade USD/JPY has dipped below the 145.00 mark.
- GBP is firmer vs. the USD but modestly so and below the opening levels of the week despite the notable rally on Monday. Price action for Cable has largely been at the whim of the Greenback with incremental macro drivers for the UK exceptionally light aside from some upbeat commentary on the prospects of a UK-US trade deal.
- Antipodeans are both firmer and supported by the current risk-environment which has been underpinned by hopes of a potential US-China trade deal (China is both nation’s largest trading partner). AUD has overlooked disappointing Australian Retail Sales data and is looking ahead to Saturday’s federal election with PM Albanese seen as likely to secure a second term.
Fixed Income
- USTs are contained into NFP. The headline is expected to show a marked cooling in the pace of Payrolls to 130k (prev. 228k), with a range of 25-195k. The report will be scoured for signs of Trump’s tariffs and associated reciprocal measures impacting the US labour market. USTs holding around 112-00 in 111-23+ to 112-01+ confines, a tick below Thursday’s base but some way clear of that session’s 112-20 peak; the high occurred in the early US morning, before the ISM release. On the trade front, US trade relations with constructive reports in the FT around EU concessions to address the trade deficit with the US in addition to reports that the US has reached out to China to seek talks alongside constructive MOFCOM language.
- Elsewhere, the Japanese Finance Minister stated that Japan’s holdings of USTs could be “among such cards” used in trade negotiations, though Kato added “whether we actually use that card, however, is a different question”. Little move was seen in USTs at the time.
- Bunds opened near enough unchanged at 131.75 after the Labour Day holiday. Just after the resumption of trade they lifted to a 131.81 peak for the session before slipping as low as 131.34 in the early European morning as participants reacted to the US-China updates overnight. Thereafter, lifted around 25 ticks from that low but remained in the red and held around that mark into data. EZ HICP came in hotter across the board and the ex-Food & Energy measures eclipsed the forecast range alongside Services jumping to 3.9% (prev. rev. 3.5%); Bunds knee jerked lower but remained well within earlier confines and have since pared the entire move and are back to holding off lows but remain in the red by around 10 ticks.
- Gilts opened lower by around 20 ticks, catching up to the slight bearish bias in APAC hours on the points outlined in USTs. Thereafter, the benchmark began to inch its way higher and is currently modestly outperforming at the top-end of a 93.30-91 band, just eclipsing Thursday’s 93.88 high. In terms of the slight outperformance, there isn’t a clear or overt headline driver behind it and instead it may be a function of Gilts not being capped/weighed on in the way that USTs and EGBs are by progress on trade talks.
Commodities
- The crude complex opened with a positive bias, continuing the upside seen in the prior session, which stemmed from the broader risk-on sentiment and after Trump’s latest Iran threats. As the session progressed, the complex has been gradually cooling off those highs, to currently trade lower by around USD 0.40/bbl. Brent July’2025 currently trades in a USD 61.72-62.72/bbl range.
- Precious metals are broadly in the green, benefiting from the softer Dollar. XAU/USD is firmer today, attempting to make back some of its recent losses; currently higher by around USD 21/oz, in a USD 3,227.67-3,263.36/oz range.
- Base metals hold a strong positive bias, benefitting from the positive risk tone and the softer Dollar. Sentiment has also been boosted as both US and China suggested a willingness by the other side for talks. 3M LME Copper currently +1.8%, and trading within a USD 9,241.95-9,411.15/t range.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- “Israel understood from Washington that if it decides to strike Iran, it will most likely do so alone as long as the nuclear negotiations continue”, according to Sky News Arabia citing AP quoting an Israeli official
- Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel attacked a target last night near the Syrian presidential palace in Damascus.
- Israeli Home Front said Northern Israel is under rocket attack from Yemen, according to Al Jazeera.
- Houthi-affiliated media reported US warplanes targeted the Yemeni capital Sana’a, according to Sky News Arabia.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said this is the best opportunity for Iran and that Iran should not be afraid of inspectors including Americans, according to a Fox News interview.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Ukrainian PM says two of the three documents on US minerals deal will not need ratification, according to a member of parliament.
- Ukraine’s Parliament plans ratification vote on US minerals deal on May 8th, according to a lawmaker cited by Reuters.
- US VP Vance said Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going to end anytime soon. It was separately reported that US Secretary of State Rubio said Ukraine and Russia’s positions are still a little far apart, while he added it’s going to take a breakthrough soon on Ukraine to make this possible or else the President will have to decide how much time to dedicate to this.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30 am: Apr Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 137.5k, prior 228k
- 8:30 am: Apr Change in Private Payrolls, est. 124.5k, prior 209k
- 8:30 am: Apr Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. -5k, prior 1k
- 8:30 am: Apr Unemployment Rate, est. 4.2%, prior 4.2%
- 8:30 am: Apr Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
- 8:30 am: Apr Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 3.9%, prior 3.8%
- 10:00 am: Mar Factory Orders, est. 4.45%, prior 0.6%
- 10:00 am: Mar F Durable Goods Orders, est. 9.2%, prior 9.2%
- 10:00 am: Mar F Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0%, prior 0%
- 10:00 am: Mar F Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
- 10:00 am: Mar F Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I briefly went back inside my old school (Hampton) last night for the first time in 33 years to help record a fund raising video. So I’m feeling a little nostalgic and old this morning. However, it could also be the incredible heatwave we’re having for the time of year playing tricks on me.
In markets as most of Europe was enjoying the one of the hotter May Day holidays on record, the S&P 500 (+0.63%) closed within 1.18% of its April 2nd close, just minutes before the Liberation Day press conference after the bell that day. This now also brings its gains over the last 8 sessions to a huge +8.65%. Indeed, that marks the fastest 8-session gain since November 2020, back when markets were surging after the announcement of the Pfizer vaccine that offered a path out of the pandemic. Meanwhile, other tariff-related moves also unwound, with the dollar index (+0.78%) hitting a 3-week high (albeit -3.43% below April 2nd close), whilst US HY spreads tightened -16bps. There continued to be mounting optimism around the trade war, following on from US trade representative Greer’s comments that deals were moving closer.
This optimism has continued overnight after China’s Ministry of Commerce said that it’s evaluating trade talks with the US. The ministry said this comes as “the US has recently sent messages to China through revenant parties” and urged Washington to shows “sincerity” towards China. Against that background Asian equities are higher on the news (more below), with S&P 500 (+0.77%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.50%) futures also moving higher even after unwhelming results from Apple and Amazon last night.
Amazon’s Q1 performance was actually a touch above expectations, but the company gave weaker-than-expected guidance for the current quarter on the back of tariffs, projecting an operating profit of $13bn to $17.5bn (vs. $17.8bn expected). Amazon’s shares fell -3.2% in extended trading, mostly reversing a +3.13% gain during yesterday’s regular session. Apple delivered a modest headline beat across revenue ($95.4bn vs $94.6bn expected) and earnings, but weaker revenue in China ($16bn vs $16.83bn) was seen as a concerning sign of the potential trade war challenges. Apple stock slid by -3.8% after-hours (+0.39% yesterday). Both companies may be helped by the renewed trade optimism overnight. For more on tech’s recent performance, see our team’s April tech performance review here.
Looking back at yesterday, the tech earnings the night before played a big role in the market rally, with the Magnificent 7 surging +2.79%, alongside a +1.52% move for the NASDAQ. Microsoft gained +7.63% and Meta +4.23% after their results. Nvidia posted a +2.47% advance, also helped by a Bloomberg report that the US is considering easing restrictions on Nvidia chip sales to the UAE.
Earlier yesterday the risk-on tone had received additional support from the latest batch of US data, which wasn’t as bad as feared. In particular, the ISM manufacturing print only fell to 48.7 (vs. 47.9 expected), which wasn’t too much of a dip from the 49.0 reading in March, and still above its levels from May-November last year. Admittedly, the weekly initial jobless claims did tick up to 241k (vs. 223k expected), but that could be explained by a surge in New York, which probably reflected difficulties in the seasonal adjustment around the Easter holidays, so it wasn’t seen as a sign of a rapidly deteriorating labour market.
Staying on the data, the next watchpoint will be the US April jobs report out today, which is the first to cover the period since Liberation Day, and one of the first hard data points we’ll have. As a reminder, our US economists expect headline nonfarm payrolls to grow by +125K (vs +228K previously), with private payrolls at +125k (vs. +209k previously). So they see a reversion after a strong March, particularly within the leisure/hospitality and retail sectors but note the late Easter has the potential to distort the data and seasonal adjustments. They also expect unemployment to remain unchanged at +4.2%. You can see their full preview and register for their post-release webinar here.
Yesterday’s data also triggered a notable rise in Treasury yields, which unwound their initial decline after the ISM manufacturing release. With the release better than expected alongside the wider risk-on tone, investors dialled back their expectations for Fed rate cuts, and the 2yr Treasury yield moved up +9.6bps on the day to 3.70%, whilst the 10yr yield was up +4.86bps to 4.22%.
In Europe, markets were fairly quiet given Germany, France and Italy were closed for a public holiday. However, the UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.02%) advanced for a 14th consecutive day, which is a joint record since the index was formed back in 1984. And with most of Europe not trading, the STOXX 600 also saw a muted gain of +0.02%. Otherwise, gilt yields moved higher in line with US Treasuries, with the 10yr yield up +4.1bps on the day to 4.48%. They are both up around another +1.5bps overnight.
Coming back to Asia, equity markets are largely rising this morning boosted by the positive overnight performance on Wall Street amid China’s openness to trade negotiations. This is outweighing concerns about the effect of tariffs, which were initially triggered by disappointing earnings from Apple and Amazon. As I check my screens, the Hang Seng Tech Index (+3.37%) is surging with the Hang Seng (+1.63%) also trading sharply higher. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.91%) and the Nikkei (+0.53%) are also trading higher with the KOSPI (+0.19%) seeing minor gains. Meanwhile, China markets are closed for the Labour Day public holiday.
Early morning data showed that Australian retail sales experienced a third consecutive month of expansion in March. The +0.3% m/m increase, while marginally below the projected +0.4%, followed a +0.2% gain in the preceding month. This is a small support to the house view that the RBA should cut 25bps this month.
To the day ahead now, as mentioned earlier we will see US data releases on April Jobs, as well as March’s factory orders. Other notable data includes France March budget balance, Italy April manufacturing PMI, budget balance, March unemployment rate, Eurozone April CPI, March unemployment rate. Earnings include Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, Apollo and Natwest.
2b European opening report
2c) Asian report
US-China trade updates offset pressure from AAPL & AMZN; NFP ahead – Europe Market Open
Friday, May 02, 2025 – 01:24 AM
- China is said to be conducting an assessment on US trade negotiations and urged the US to demonstrate sincerity for trade talks, while it urged the US to correct mistakes regarding tariffs and noted it is currently evaluating possible US trade talks.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said the Chinese want to meet and talk, while he added those talks will come up soon and there’s a broader question about how much we should buy from China going forward
- Japanese Finance Minister Kato said Japan’s huge US Treasury holdings are among the tools it can wield in trade negotiations with the US but added that whether Japan wields that card is a different question.
- EU negotiator Sefcovic said Europe is ready to make US President Trump a EUR 50bln offer, in which Brussels wants to increase purchases of US goods by EUR 50bln to address the “problem” in the trade relationship, while he said the bloc is making “certain progress” towards striking a deal.
- US equity futures were initially pressured after Apple (-3.8% after market) and Amazon’s (-3.2% after market) earnings reports but later rebounded on hopes of US-China trade talks, while participants now await the latest NFP jobs data; APAC stocks traded mostly higher.
- European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 1.3% after the cash market closed flat on Wednesday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Manufacturing PMI (Final) & HICP, US NFP & Durable Goods, Earnings from Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Apollo, Brookfield, ING & BASF.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks gained with sentiment buoyed by strong mega-cap earnings from Microsoft (MSFT, +7.6%) and Meta (META, +4.2%) in which the latter raised its CapEx views despite recent market jitters over data centre demand.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI data also added to support as the drop in the headline was not as bad as feared and with new orders and employment rising, while prices paid rose less than expected. The report offered optimism surrounding US risk assets and the dollar extended on existing strength against all G10 peers, although US equity futures gave back some of the gains after-hours following earning releases from Amazon and Apple.
- SPX +0.63% at 5,604, NDX +1.10% at 19,787, DJI +0.21% at 40,753, RUT +0.60% at 1,976.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
TARIFFS/TRADE
- US Department of Commerce launched the Section 232 steel and aluminium inclusions process which allows US manufacturers and trade associations to request the inclusion of new derivative articles under Section 232 steel and aluminium tariffs, according to a statement cited by Reuters.
- De minimis exception for products from China and Hong Kong imported to the US is now voided, as scheduled.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said the Chinese want to meet and talk, while he added those talks will come up soon and there’s a broader question about how much we should buy from China going forward.
- China is said to be conducting an assessment on US trade negotiations and urged the US to demonstrate sincerity for trade talks, while it urged the US to correct mistakes regarding tariffs and noted it is currently evaluating possible US trade talks.
- China’s MOFCOM said the tariff and trade war was unilaterally initiated by the US and the US should show its sincerity in talks, while it added the US has repeatedly expressed its willingness to negotiate with China on the tariff issue and has recently taken the initiative to convey information to the Chinese side through relevant parties on several occasions, hoping to talk with the Chinese side. MOFCOM added that China’s position has always been the same: ‘talk, the door is open,’ as well as noted the US should show sincerity if it wants to talk and that in any possible dialogue or meeting if the US does not correct its unilateral tariff measures, it has no sincerity at all. Furthermore, it stated the US should be prepared to take action in correcting erroneous practices and cancelling unilateral tariffs.
- Japanese PM Ishiba said there is no change at all to Japan’s stance of requesting the US to cancel tariffs, while he added they are not in a situation where common ground has been found yet but he received a report from Economic Minister Akazawa that talks were forward-looking. Furthermore, Ishiba commented that reaching a deal in haste is not necessarily in the best interest.
- Japanese Finance Minister Kato said Japan’s huge US Treasury holdings are among the tools it can wield in trade negotiations with the US but added that whether Japan wields that card is a different question.
- Japan’s Economic Minister Akazawa said that US tariff negotiations lasted for 130 minutes and they were able to have a thorough discussion in which repeated its request for a review of tariffs on Japan, while they talked about how Japan can expand trade, non-tariff measures and economic security with the US. Akazawa said they told the US that tariff measures are regrettable and they want to hold the next meeting after mid-May, while they asked the US to review tariff measures on auto parts and the negotiation was handled as a package. Furthermore, they did not talk about China during the talks and he understands that the US wants to reach some kind of agreement within the 90-day window with various countries.
- EU negotiator Sefcovic said Europe is ready to make US President Trump a EUR 50bln offer, in which Brussels wants to increase purchases of US goods by EUR 50bln to address the “problem” in the trade relationship, while he said the bloc is making “certain progress” towards striking a deal.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Trump said he just received an update from congressional leaders on the tax bill and said they are working very hard on a great big beautiful bill. Trump said taxes will go up 68% if the big bill does not pass, while he added that things are moving along very well and they are right on schedule on the tax bill. Furthermore, he said they’ll be paying off debt and so much money will be taken in that they’ll cut taxes.
- US President Trump is planning to release his FY 2026 budget on Friday, according to Axios. It was separately reported that President Trump is to propose slashing USD 163bln in government programs in budget blueprint, according to WSJ.
- US President Trump said he removed Mike Waltz as National Security Adviser but nominated Waltz to be the next US Ambassador to the UN, while in the interim, Secretary of State Rubio will serve as the National Security Advisor.
AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS
- Apple Inc (AAPL) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 1.65 (exp. 1.62), Revenue 95.36bln (exp. 94.53bln), authorises USD 100bln buyback, Greater China rev. 16bln (exp. 16.97bln); Shares fell 3.8% after-market.
- Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Q1 2025 (USD): EPS 1.59 (exp. 1.38), Revenue 155.7bln (exp. 154.88bln). Q2 25 revenue view 159-164bln (exp. 161.62bln); shares fell 3.2% after-market.
- Airbnb (ABNB) Q1 2025 (USD): EPS 0.24 (exp. 0.23), Revenue 2.3bln (exp. 2.26bln); shares fell 3.2% after-market.
- Reddit Inc (RDDT) Q1 2025 (USD): EPS 0.13 (exp. 0.01), Revenue 392.4mln (exp. 369.0mln); shares rose 6.5% after-market.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded mostly higher as many regional participants returned from the Labor Day holiday and with some hopes for US-China trade talks.
- ASX 200 gained with the advances led by outperformance in the energy sector following the upside in oil prices and with a continuation of the status quo seen as the outcome in tomorrow’s federal election with Australian PM Albanese highly favoured to win a second term.
- Nikkei 225 rallied at the open but is off intraday highs after stalling near the 37,000 level and following a surprise increase in Japan’s unemployment rate.
- Hang Seng outperformed on return from the holiday closure and despite the continued absence of mainland participants, while there were reports that China is currently evaluating possible US trade talks and noted that the US has repeatedly expressed its willingness to negotiate with China on the tariff issue, although it urged the US to demonstrate sincerity for trade talks and correct its unilateral tariff measures.
- US equity futures were initially pressured after Apple and Amazon’s earnings reports but later rebounded on hopes of US-China trade talks, while participants now await the latest NFP jobs data.
- European equity futures indicate a higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 1.3% after the cash market closed flat on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY slightly softened but held on to most of the prior day’s spoils after benefitting from increased US optimism which was facilitated by advances in USD/JPY in the aftermath of the dovish BoJ and after ISM Manufacturing PMI data printed in contraction territory but not as bad as feared. Furthermore, there was a muted reaction to the greenback from the recent trade-related headlines including reports that China is currently evaluating possible US trade talks and that the US has repeatedly expressed its willingness to negotiate with China on the tariff issue, while participants now await the NFP report.
- EUR/USD nursed some of its recent losses and just about reclaimed the 1.1300 handle with price action contained amid light newsflow although there were comments from EU’s top trade negotiator Sefcovic that Europe is ready to make US President Trump a EUR 50bln offer.
- GBP/USD rebounded from a weekly low and returned to the 1.3300 territory but with the recovery limited by the absence of any major UK-specific catalysts.
- USD/JPY initially extended on the prior day’s BoJ-spurred upward momentum but then pulled back from resistance just shy of the 146.00 level, while there was little reaction seen following reports of US-Japan tariff talks or from comments from Japanese Finance Minister Kato who said Japan’s huge US Treasury holdings are among tools it can wield in trade negotiations with the US but added whether Japan wields that card is a different question.
- Antipodeans traded firmer alongside the strength in CNH and despite disappointing Australian Retail Sales, while Australia is set for a federal election on Saturday with PM Albanese seen as likely to secure a second term as a major YouGov poll showed the ruling Labor party is on track to win an increased majority of 84 seats in the 150-seat lower house.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures lingered around the prior day’s trough after prices were pressured by the better-than-feared ISM data and as the focus now shifts to the NFP report.
- Bund futures mildly gapped lower on return from the holiday closure and with very little in the way of fresh pertinent drivers.
- 10yr JGB futures were choppy following the post-BoJ advances and with increased demand at the enhanced-liquidity JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures remained underpinned after climbing yesterday amid the positive risk sentiment and US President Trump’s warning of secondary sanctions on Iran oil purchases.
- US President Trump said they put sanctions on Iranian oil yesterday and whoever takes oil from Iran cannot do business with the US. Trump later posted that all purchases of Iranian oil, or petrochemical products must stop now and any country or person who buys any amount of oil or petrochemicals from Iran will be immediately subject to secondary sanctions.
- China is to seek renegotiated terms on its Venezuela oil contracts, according to Bloomberg.
- A second Chevron (CVX)-chartered vessel begins to return oil cargo in Venezuela, according to ship tracking data and a Reuters source.
- Spot gold gradually edged higher amid a softer dollar and heading into the key US jobs data.
- Copper futures were eventually lifted amid the positive risk environment and as both the US and China suggested a willingness by the other side for talks.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin extended on its recent mild gains and rose to back above the USD 97,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China-linked group was accused of meddling in Australia’s election with the Chinese Communist Party-linked Australia Hubei Association said to have mobilised volunteers to support an independent candidate ahead of Saturday’s federal election in Australia, according to Nikkei.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Unemployment Rate (Mar) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.4%)
- Japanese Jobs/Applicants Ratio (Mar) 1.26 vs. Exp. 1.25 (Prev. 1.24)
- Australian PPI QQ (Q1) 0.9% (Prev. 0.8%)
- Australian PPI YY (Q1) 3.7% (Prev. 3.7%)
- Australian Retail Sales MM Final (Mar) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%)
- Australian Retail Trade (Q1) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 1.0%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel attacked a target last night near the Syrian presidential palace in Damascus.
- Israeli Home Front said Northern Israel is under rocket attack from Yemen, according to Al Jazeera.
- Houthi-affiliated media reported US warplanes targeted the Yemeni capital Sana’a, according to Sky News Arabia.
- US Secretary of State Rubio said this is the best opportunity for Iran and that Iran should not be afraid of inspectors including Americans, according to a Fox News interview.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine is interested in ratifying the minerals deal with the US ASAP and said the deal is “indeed equal agreement” with the US.
- Ukraine’s First Deputy PM said parliament will ratify the minerals deals with the US in the next few weeks and the Ukraine-US fund is to become operational within a few months after ratification.
- US VP Vance said Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going to end anytime soon. It was separately reported that US Secretary of State Rubio said Ukraine and Russia’s positions are still a little far apart, while he added it’s going to take a breakthrough soon on Ukraine to make this possible or else the President will have to decide how much time to dedicate to this.
3 .ASIA
3A NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3B JAPAN
This headline sent shockwaves throughout the globe
Japan’s Finance Minister Threatens Liquidation Of US Treasuries, Sparking Shock, Confusion
3C CHINA
EARLY MORNING
China starts to soften the blow on Trump’s tariffs buy exempting 1/4 of American goods into China
(zerohedge)
China Quietly Walks Back A Quarter Of US Import Tariffs Amid Economic Crunch
Friday, May 02, 2025 – 09:10 AM
China has quietly started to exempt some US goods from tariffs that likely cover around $40 billion worth of imports (or around 24% of Chinese imports from the US in 2024), in what looks like an effort to soften the blow of the trade war on its own economy.
“China is likely trying to mitigate damage to its economy by avoiding a collapse in key imports,” DiPippo said.
“The exemptions shouldn’t be interpreted as a signal to the US, as China has been quiet about its exemptions, working through business channels and avoiding public statements.”
While this move mirrors the shift by the Trump administration – exempting smartphones and other electronics from its own “reciprocal” tariffs, including the 145% levies on China (those US exemptions apply to about $102 billion, or roughly 22% of US imports from China last year) – we suspect there is more behind this decision.
As we highlighted just a week ago, China’s already fragile economy faced a serious crisis from the tariff-driven cuts to supply of US ethane and the potential for that to force mass plastics factory closures.
“The situation is dire for China’s ethane crackers as they have no alternative to US supply,” said Manish Sejwal, an analyst at Rystad Energy AS, using an industry term for such facilities.
“Unless they are granted tariff exemptions, they may have to stop production or close shop.”
Well guess what just happened… buried deep among the 131 items is, you guessed it – industrial chemicals (which likely includes US Ethane supplies).
Bloomberg reports that it’s unclear where the list came from and it hasn’t been officially confirmed, but at least half a dozen companies in China have been able to bring in goods from the list without paying tariffs, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential information.
No matter the reason – forced by factory closure crisis or simply goodwill – there are tentative signs the US-China trade standoff could be shifting.
The Chinese Commerce Ministry said on Friday it’s assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US, giving a lift to equity markets.
“The US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China,” the ministry said in a statement released during a mainland holiday.
“China is currently evaluating this.”
The timing of the tit-for-tat escalation and de-escalation is very similar to last time (though this time the pain was far greater to prompt the walkbacks on both sides)…
The list of exemptions is said to be dynamic and will be continuously adjusted depending on China’s needs, according to people familiar with the matter.
end
later in the morning!!
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE CHINA IS MOVING ON USA TARIFFS.
THE CHINESE ECONOMY IS GETTING KILLED
(zerohedge)
Futures Jump After China Says It Is “Evaluating” Trade Talks
Thursday, May 01, 2025 – 09:09 PM
Update (9:20pm ET): the first reaction from the US side comes in by way of Marco Rubio who speaks in a Fox News interview, and it is very much as expected: he makes it seem that China reached out first, which to Beijing is a non-starter as its specific framework is that the US was reaching out in order for Xi not to lose face:
- RUBIO SAYS CHINA IS REACHING OUT ON ECONOMIC ISSUES
- RUBIO: CHINESE WANT TO MEET AND TALK
And now it is up to China to respond, although since both sides can’t seem to even agree on who will cede ground by reached out first, we expect this latest attempt at detente won’t go too far.
* * *
Futures spiked, moving back to session highs and forgetting all about the bitter taste from disappointing results from Amazon and Apple, following news from Bloomberg that China was “assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US” the first sign since Donald Trump hiked tariffs last month that negotiations could begin between the two sides.
China’s Commerce Ministry said in a Friday statement that it had noted senior US officials repeatedly expressing their willingness to talk to Beijing about tariffs, and urged officials in Washington to show “sincerity” towards China.
“The US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China,” the ministry added. “China is currently evaluating this.”
Of course, the Chinese spin is one in which the Trump admin reached out first, and which the US pro-China media will promptly use to hammer Trump with, resulting in an even quick denial by the president and thus, China, thereby erasing any hope of an overture, one which won’t come until both sides are quite desperate.
For now, however, the reaction to the flashing red headline was stark as &P 500 erased early losses in Asia while a gauge of regional equities also turned positive after the statement. The offshore yuan edged stronger, while the Australian dollar, a China proxy, also extended gains.
The statement signals the stalemate between the world’s two largest economies could shift, after Trump hiked US tariffs to the highest level in a century and Beijing retaliated in kind.
Trump has repeatedly said President Xi Jinping needs to contact him in order to begin tariff talks and earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it’s up to Beijing to take the first step to de-escalate the dispute; China has done the same.
end
CHINA/GORDON CHANG
‘Very, Very Wrong’: Expert Warns China Showing Signs Of ‘End-Of-Regime Conduct’
Thursday, May 01, 2025 – 08:05 PM
A China politics expert warns that the communist regime shows signs of potential collapse, driven by a worsening economy exacerbated by Trump’s aggressive tariff policies.
“At a time when China needs friends because it’s not selling goods to the U.S., it is going out of its way to antagonize not just the Philippines, not just Taiwan, but also South Korea and Australia,” Gordon Chang, senior fellow with the Gatestone Institute, told the Fox Business Network.
“This shows that… this is end-of-regime conduct, because Xi Jinping, he can’t appear to be giving in to the U.S.,” he added. “This is really very perplexing behavior, and it shows that something is very, very wrong in Beijing right now.”
Trump has shown little sign of backing down from his trade war with China, slapping a 145% tariff on Chinese imports. Beijing retaliated with 125% duties on U.S. goods. Trump insists his administration is actively negotiating with Beijing officials, but China’s Foreign Ministry has flatly denied any talks, accusing the U.S. of spreading “baseless rumors.”
The White House argues these tariffs are necessary to protect American workers and counter China’s unfair trade practices, while critics warn of skyrocketing prices, empty shelves, and a looming recession.
The Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that Chinese authorities have quietly waived some of the 125% retaliatory tariffs on certain U.S. imports, including semiconductors, chipmaking equipment, medical products, and aviation parts. This move signals Beijing’s concern about the economic fallout from the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. While China has not publicly confirmed these exemptions.
As we reported earlier:
On Tuesday morning, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick provided clarity on the highly anticipated auto tariff relief, confirming it will apply to all U.S.-built vehicles.
Lutnick said tariffs will apply to those produced by foreign automakers with plants in the US. He added that the relief would be phased in over three years, giving manufacturers time to shift their supply chains back to the U.S.
The Wall Street Journal offered details regarding how relief would resemble:
The decision will mean that automakers paying Trump’s automotive tariffs won’t also be charged for other duties, such as those on steel and aluminum, according to people familiar with the policy.
The move would be retroactive, the people said, meaning that automakers could be reimbursed for such tariffs already paid. The 25% tariff on finished foreign-made cars went into effect early this month.
The administration will also modify its tariffs on foreign auto parts—slated to be 25% and effective May 3—allowing automakers to be reimbursed for those tariffs up to an amount equal to 3.75% of the value of a U.S.-made car for one year. The reimbursement would fall to 2.5% of the car’s value in a second year, and then be phased out altogether.
Ford CEO Jim Farley lauded the move, providing the following statement to WSJ: “Ford welcomes and appreciates these decisions by President Trump, which will help mitigate the impact of tariffs on automakers, suppliers and consumers. We will continue to work closely with the administration in support of the president’s vision for a healthy and growing auto industry in America. Ford sees policies that encourage exports and ensure affordable supply chains to promote more domestic growth as essential.”
END
early afternoon:
China bends the knee to Trump
S&P Erases All ‘Liberation Day’ Losses As Beijing Bends Knee, Mulls Fentanyl Offer To Trump
Friday, May 02, 2025 – 12:10 PM
Update (1200ET): US equity markets extended gains this morning following a report from The Wall Street Journal that Beijing is considering ways to address the Trump administration’s gripes over China’s role in the fentanyl trade, potentially offering an off-ramp from hostilities to allow for trade talks to start.
So, despite all the legacy media’s claims that ‘no’ talks were under way, WSJ reports that Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s security czar, Wang Xiaohong, in recent days has been inquiring about what the Trump team wants China to do when it comes to fentanyl.
In a visible shift in tone Friday, China’s Commerce Ministry said it was weighing starting talks with the U.S. to halt a trade war while expressing Beijing’s wish for the Trump administration to “show sincerity” to talk. Previously, the ministry had demanded that Washington slash its steep tariffs on China first as a condition for negotiations.
Stocks surged further on the report…
With the S&P 500 now having erased all losses post-Liberation Day…
* * *
4..EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS
HEZBOLLAH
ISRAEL
Israel is burning in more ways than one – editorial
Every year, Israelis experience the effects of climate change more and more, as the weather gets more extreme, and not all disasters can be fought off. But we can be prepared.
By JPOST EDITORIALMAY 2, 2025 06:00
Massive fires on the eve of Independence Day can be attributed to a cruel divine reflection of the current state of the nation: burning. Nearly 2,000 hectares (almost 5,000 acres) of land were charred, as firefighters fought bravely to contain the fire, and drivers on the Tel Aviv–Jerusalem Highway abandoned their cars in the blazing heat and walked to safety.
Every year, Israelis experience the effects of climate change more and more, as the weather gets more extreme, and not all disasters can be fought off. But we can be prepared.
Government decisions made in the last two years prevented that preparation, demonstrating yet another example of the governing coalition’s disconnect and inefficiency. Civilians end up paying the heaviest of prices.
It should serve as a rallying cry to our leaders to buckle in and prepare for the next fire, both physical and metaphorical, and to start healing the ever-widening schisms in Israeli society.
Furthermore, this isn’t Israel’s first fire. Fifteen years ago, a massive forest fire broke out on Mount Carmel. Forty-four people died, about 17,000 were evacuated, and nearly 2,500 hectares of land were burned, including millions of trees. It took five days to contain the fires.
This was the largest natural fire that took place in Israel up until that point, and it was the worst civilian disaster until the Mount Meron crowd crush in April 2021 that claimed the lives of 45 people.
Israeli leadership’s unwillingness to learn
The government was asked to form a state commission of inquiry for the Carmel fires to learn from mistakes and be better prepared for the future.
Such a commission was never formed, after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opposed the initiative. In 2012, the State Comptroller’s Office published a series of recommendations.
Already before the Carmel fires, the Fire and Rescue Authority had complained several times in the 2000s about a shortage of supplies and manpower. Some legislation was passed in the following years to settle disputes over the ministerial parent of the Fire and Rescue Authority, streamlining some of the bureaucratic blockages.
The fires this week are even more infuriating, because in December 2022, former Internal Security Ministry director-general Tomer Lotan begged, in a special Knesset committee, to purchase four aerial firefighting Black Hawk jets for use against fires. He warned that they weren’t a luxury but a necessity, and that it could not wait. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who was fresh in the role, disputed this, claiming it was a waste of money.
Lotan wrote on Twitter/X on Wednesday: “I am seeing photos of the fires, and my blood is boiling!” The purchase plan was the result of a long, professional process of coordination among several governmental bodies, which was eventually approved by the Bennett-Lapid government, and it came after a widespread government decision to approach firefighting more seriously, he wrote.
Ben-Gvir spun a lie that the jets would be used by the police, and he used it to fodder his claim of fund wastefulness, Lotan wrote, adding: “This was so crazy and stupid, because the purchase was for the Fire and Rescue Authority, not for the police!”
During the committee meeting, Lotan wrote, he tried hard to explain that these jets would upgrade Israel’s aerial power. “It was like talking to the wall,” he wrote.
“These lies stunted the purchase and prevented us from being much more prepared today, two and a half years later, for these massive fires,” he added.
During budgetary debates a few months ago, NIS 217 million was cut from firefighting services and went instead to haredi (ultra-Orthodox) yeshivot and food stamps for the community, as well as for haredi education and to settlements, along with NIS 87m. to “strengthening Jewish identity.” Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich signed off on all of this.
Yesh Atid MK Vladimir Beliak, a member of the Knesset’s Finance Committee, summarized it well when he said on Thursday: “What happened to the budget of the Fire and Rescue Authority tells you everything you need to know about yesterday’s fires. The 2025 budget was approved with cuts, while increased funds were dedicated to political and sectoral goals. The Authority’s budget dropped from 2024 to 2025; this government is risking the lives of its citizens for its own survival.”
end
IRAN
More Iranian sanctions on Iranian oil sends oil price higher
(zerohedge)
Trump’s Newest Iran Sanctions Another Shot Across China’s Bow
Thursday, May 01, 2025 – 10:35 PM
Thursday saw President Trump and the US Treasury unleash a new sanctions pile-on against Iran, with a new rollout of secondary sanctions targeting Iranian oil and petrochemical products, sending crude prices higher on the day…
“They will not be allowed to do business with the United States of America in any way, shape, or form,” the President wrote on Truth Social in combination with a Treasury statement. It’s as yet unclear precisely how such sanctions will be implemented, with the most extreme or ‘nuclear option’ being naval intervention against vessels transporting Iranian oil.
The main warning and teeth behind it centers on the threat that any nation buying oil or petrochemicals from the Islamic Republic will be barred from doing any business with the US.
“Any Country or person who buys ANY AMOUNT of OIL or PETROCHEMICALS from Iran will be subject to, immediately, Secondary Sanctions,” Trump stated in the post. Oil had quickly jumped 2% on the mid-afternoon announcement.
Trump is clearly setting out to negotiate from a position of “strength” amid his maximum pressure campaign, aimed at getting Tehran to sign on to a fresh nuclear agreement.
Talks have apparently hit some logistical hurdles, or perhaps Trump’s new secondary sanctions have resulted in jitters and renewal of anger and lack of trust from Iranian leadership:
A fourth round of Iran-US talks over Tehran’s nuclear program has been postponed.
Iran said the two countries, along with facilitators Oman, had jointly decided to postpone Saturday’s meeting in Rome for “logistical and technical reasons”. The US said the timing of the talks had not been confirmed in the first place.
Is this an intentional stall?
Surely it’s also a shot across China’s bow, given that it imports over a million barrels per day from Iran, and for years amid Tehran’s isolation has been the biggest buyer of Iranian crude.
As for when US-Iran talks might resume, after relatively ‘positive’ prior recent rounds, Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi emphasized Thursday on X that Tehran’s “determination to secure a negotiated solution” had not changed.
He wrote: “In fact, we are more determined than ever to achieve a just and balanced deal: guaranteeing an end to sanctions, and creating confidence that Iran’s nuclear program will forever remain peaceful while ensuring that Iranian rights are fully respected.”
end
IRAN/USA
Hegseth Threatens Iran Over Houthi Support: ‘You Will Pay’
Thursday, May 01, 2025 – 07:15 PM
The start of this week began badly for the Pentagon, as it revealed it had ‘lost’ a fighter jet in the Red Sea amid the ongoing Yemen bombing campaign. A US Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet “fell overboard from the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier while it was being towed on board” – the US military said, and supposedly while the large carrier was making an evasive turn amid inbound Houthi drones or missiles.
The Houthis have been celebrating this as a ‘win’. But Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has on Thursday put Iran on notice, alleging close support from Tehran to the Houthis, saying it ‘will pay’.
Hegseth addressed the Iranians in a fresh message on X, saying: “We see your lethal support to the Houthis. We know exactly what you are doing.”
“You know very well what the US military is capable of — and you were warned. You will pay the consequence at the time and place of our choosing,” he continued.
Hegseth as part of the message shared a screenshot of a prior Trump post on his Truth Social, originally written in mid-March, in which the president charged that Iran is “dictating every move” the Houthis make as well as providing arms and intelligence.
“Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of Iran,” the president wrote at the time.
But the Islamic Republic has firmly rejected the accusations, highlighting that the Houthis are a political and military movement which acts independently and makes its own decisions, especially on the battlefield.
“Ansar Allah (the Houthis), as the representative of the Yemenis, makes its own strategic decisions, and Iran has no role in setting the national or operational policies of any movement in the resistance front,” Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami said soon after the US renewed its bombing campaign on March 15.
The Houthis have pledged not to stop attacks on Western warships in the Red Sea as well as Israel, so long as Israel’s military remains active in Gaza. The Red Sea conflict started again almost immediately after the Hamas-Israel ceasefire and hostage exchange deal collapsed.
International shipping through the vital water-way has been essentially blocked for well over a year, and the industry has been forced to adjust. Russian and Chinese commercial vessels have been allowed safe-passage by the Houthis.
Hegseth’s fresh threat toward Iran strongly suggests the Iran debate is still alive and well within the administration. Trump has been urging Iran to sign a fresh nuclear deal or else face possible bombing campaign by the US, and likely Israel. Hegseth has previously been reported to be on DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s side – against the hawks and desiring climb-down in terms of Iran tensions.
END
SYRIA
Syria Unravels Further As Jolani’s Army Attacks Another Religious Minority
Thursday, May 01, 2025 – 05:00 PM
Authored by Jason Ditz via AntiWar.com,
Sectarian fighting in the Damascus suburb of Jaramana left dozens killed, and Israel is already looking to parlay that into a new excuse for military action against the Syrian government, with the idea that they need to “protect” the Druze minority militarily.
The Israeli military reported attacking the Damascus suburb of Sahnaya, and that they targeted an “extremist group” that was planning new attacks on the Druze. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz issued statements demanding the Syrian government take action to prevent further attacks on the Druze.
Details of the strike are still scant. Indeed, Syria’s Interior Ministry said they had yet to receive word that the Israeli attack even took place at all. Since Israel launches a large number of attacks inside Syria regularly, it’s not necessarily improbable that they launched one on Sahnaya, but it appears not to have been particularly large.
Israeli Army chief Eyal Zamir has threatened to carry out attacks across Syria if the attacks on the Druze don’t stop, and said that he has ordered his staff to prepare for targets in Syria to that end.
Though the HTS has already promised investigations into what happened Tuesday in the Druze community in Jaramana, it’s not clear Israeli threats will mean much at any rate, since Israel is already actively attacking Syria at any rate, and this is just the latest pretext for continuing that.
Also, using the Druze as an excuse isn’t even new, it’s more being revived. In early March, a smaller clash in Jaramana led to Israel similarly vowing to protect the Druze, imposing a ban on all Syrian military assets south of Damascus, and offering to give Syrian Druze in the newly occupied parts of Syria “work permits” to go into Israel to work, an offer that was later rescinded.
Israeli Druze are going along with this, carrying out a demonstration near Acre which Israeli police declared “illegal“. Druze make up about 2% of Israel’s population, and about 3%-4% of Syria’s population, centered mainly on the Suwayda Governorate.
Tuesday into Wednesday gunbattles were fueled by an audio clip which went viral online. The audio was of someone insulting the Muslim Prophet Muhammed, and was purported to be a Syrian Druze person speaking. It has not been verified that was actually the origin.
Indeed, many people are speculating this was an effort at “incitement” against the Druze minority in Syria, and it certainly seems to have worked, at least for a time.
Syria’s Islamist government has promised to investigate this possibility, and some are suggesting it may be an external effort to fuel unrest within Syria.
END
Syrian Druze community pleas for int’l assistance as sectarian violence continues
“We no longer trust the body that calls itself a government,” Hakmat Al-Hajeri, a leader in Syria’s Druze community, said.
By SHIR PERETSMAY 1, 2025 19:30
Druze citizens living in Syria on Thursday sent a plea to the international community calling for help against recent attacks on the Druze community in Syria.
The plea came shortly after the reported murder of Hussam Warwar, the mayor of the Druze community of Sahnaya, and his son.
“Our young men are being arrested and tortured in ways that defy description. The abuse they’re enduring is brutal… beyond what any conscience can accept. The images we receive are too painful to share not out of fear, but out of respect for their dignity, which is being violated every day behind closed doors. But we can no longer remain silent,” a statement published on X/Twitter by user MiraMedusa, read.
The statement called for the Red Cross, the United Nations, journalists, activists, and members of the global Druze community to speak out and “act immediately to save those who remain and put an end to these ongoing atrocities.”
Hakmat Al-Hajeri, the spiritual leader of Syria’s Druze community, issued a statement saying the community had lost trust in the new leadership.
“We no longer trust the body that calls itself a government. We do not trust the presence of its people among us because they are nothing but machines of murder and kidnapping, distorting the facts, with a sectarian mindset that deems other sects as infidels,” he said.
The MiraMedusa account posted what they claimed was a “hostage-like video” of Warwar welcoming members of the new Syrian government, reassuring residents, and welcoming the forces into the area.
“But once the cameras stopped rolling, those very forces turned on him! Executing him and his only son in public, before everyone’s eyes. This is the true face of Islamist terror,” they said.
Israeli leaders and the Druze community called on the country to intervene
Former ambassador Reda Mansour called Israel’s response “very disappointing,” adding that the country was being tested on its seriousness in how it would respond to jihadists.
“The entire Middle East is watching us, seeing how jihadists are disregarding Israel’s red lines. This weakness will come at a heavy price,” he wrote.
Additionally, Interior Minister Moshe Arbel sent a letter to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanayhu calling on him to intervene and provide assistance to the Druze community.
“IDF officers and fighters of Druze descent were among the first to stand up and defend the State of Israel during the war and in Israel’s war efforts in general. Some have fallen on the battlefield. Currently, their family members are in immediate and tangible danger,” he wrote, asking that Israel do what is necessary to end the attacks, using both diplomatic efforts and military operations.
END
ISRAEL/SYRIA
IDF conducts airstrike near Damascus’s presidential palace
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that this was due to Israel not allowing any danger to the Druze community, their offices announced in a joint statement.
By JAMES GENN, REUTERSMAY 2, 2025 04:19Updated: MAY 2, 2025 06:14
The IDF conducted an airstrike in Damascus adjacent to the area of the Palace of Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa in Damascus,” without specifying the target, the military confirmed.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that this was due to Israel not allowing any danger to the Druze community, their offices announced in a joint statement, according to Maariv.
“This is a clear message to the Syrian regime. We will not allow forces to be sent south of Damascus or any threat to the Druze community,” they said.
It marks the second time Israel has struck Syria in as many days, following through on a promise to defend the minority group, Reuters reported.
According to Reuters, the strikes reflect Israel’s deep mistrust of the Sunni Islamists who toppled Bashar al-Assad in December, posing a further challenge to interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa‘s efforts to establish control over the fractured nation.
Earlier on Thursday, Israel’s Druze community protested against anti-Druze violence in Syria.
The Druze adhere to a faith that is an offshoot of Islam and have followers in Syria, Lebanon, and Israel.
Since Assad was ousted in December, Israel has seized ground in the southwest, vowed to protect the Druze, lobbied Washington to keep the neighboring state weak, and has blown up much of the Syrian army’s heavy weapons in the days after he was toppled.
Sharaa, who was an al-Qaeda commander before renouncing ties to the group in 2016, has repeatedly vowed to govern Syria in an inclusive way. But incidents of sectarian violence, including the killing of hundreds of Alawites in March, have hardened fears among minority groups about the now dominant Islamists.
This week’s sectarian violence began on Tuesday with clashes between Druze and Sunni gunmen in the predominantly Druze area of Jaramana, sparked by a voice recording cursing the Prophet Mohammad and which the Sunni militants suspected was made by a Druze.
More than a dozen people were reported killed on Tuesday, before the violence spread to the mainly Druze town of Sahnaya on Damascus’ outskirts on Wednesday.
US against Syrian sectarianism
On Thursday evening, US State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce stated that “The recent violence and inflammatory rhetoric targeting members of the Druze community in Syria is reprehensible and unacceptable.”
“The interim authorities must stop the fighting, hold perpetrators of violence and civilian harm accountable for their actions, and ensure the security of all Syrians,” Bruce added.
“Sectarianism will only sink Syria and the region into chaos and more violence. We have seen that Syrians can solve their disputes peacefully through negotiations. We call for a representative future government that protects and integrates all of Syria’s communities, including ethnic and religious minorities.”
ens
HOUTHIS/SYRIA
Israel conducts airstrike on Damascus, Yemen launches missile, sirens sound across north Israel
Trump believes fewer than 24 hostages are alive • Druze protesters denounce Syrian violence • IDF abandons soldier in Gaza for 40 mins
IDF intercepts Yemeni missile before entering Israeli territory as sirens sound across north Israel
The military stated that the public is instructed to follow the guidelines issued by the Home Front Command.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFMAY 2, 2025 05:34Updated: MAY 2, 2025 06:04
The IDF stated that it identified the launch of a missile from Yemen toward Israeli territory, and aerial defense systems are operating to intercept the threat, the military confirmed on Friday morning.
Minutes after the statements from the IDF and Home Front Command, rocket alert sirens sounded in multiple areas across Israel, as previously warned by the military.
Following the alerts, the IDF stated, “Following the sirens that sounded a short while ago in several areas in Israel, a missile was launched from Yemen.”
“The missile was intercepted prior to crossing into Israeli territory. Sirens were sounded in accordance with protocol,” the military confirmed
According to Magen David Adom, “no calls were received about casualties, except for one case of a man who was injured on the way to a protected area.”
Military asks public to follow HFC guidelines
The military added that the public is instructed to follow the guidelines issued by the Home Front Command.
“Due to detection of missile launches toward Israel, alerts may be activated in Upper Galilee, Lower Galilee, Menashe, Confrontation Line, Samaria, Wadi Ara, Center Galilee, HaMifratz, HaCarmel, Beit Sha’an Valley, HaAmakim areas in the coming minutes,” the Home Front Command alerted its users.
END
HOUTHIS/USA/AIR STRIKE ON YEMEN
After the blast: Yemenis face airstrikes, hunger, and international indifference
A deadly strike on a Saada detention center highlights growing concerns about American operations in Yemen and the war’s intensifying humanitarian toll
By GIORGIA VALENTE/THE MEDIA LINEMAY 2, 2025 02:33
Since January 2024, American and British military strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen have intensified in response to Red Sea shipping disruptions, hitting dozens of targets across Sanaa, Saada, Hodeida, and other governorates.
For more stories from The Media Line go to themedialine.org
According to rights groups and humanitarian monitors, at least 400 civilians have been killed and over 1,000 injured in these operations—many of them in nonmilitary facilities and critical infrastructure zones.
The toll deepened further this week with one of the most devastating incidents to date: a US strike on a migrant detention center in Saada, which killed at least 68 African migrants and injured dozens more. According to local officials, the victims were unarmed and had no warning before the missile struck.
“This was a facility holding vulnerable people, not combatants,” Yasser Al Jaberi, a Yemeni journalist based in Sanaa, told The Media Line. “The strike at the detention center was a brutal crime, and the absence of accountability only deepens the pain. These people had no escape, no protection—just silence and fire.”
The Pentagon maintains that the strikes are aimed at securing maritime shipping lanes and deterring Iran-backed Houthi aggression. “These strikes are to protect freedom of navigation in international waters, not to alter Yemen’s internal dynamics,” a US official told The Media Line.
But voices inside Yemen, including journalists and analysts on the ground, are unconvinced.
“Today, the feelings of the Yemeni people are practically dead; most are living a slow death, either from hunger or under aerial bombardment,” Al Jaberi said. “The conditions are extremely dire, and these strikes now provoke only deep resentment and sorrow among the people.”
Yemen is facing one of the world’s worst hunger crises, with millions on the brink of famine due to years of war, economic collapse, and aid blockades.
Tawfik Alhamidi, a Yemeni lawyer and head of the SAM for Rights and Liberties nonprofit, told the Media Line that the US has failed to achieve its strategic goals regarding the Houthi group.
“They aim to secure maritime routes, deter Iranian influence, deny Houthis leverage in negotiations, and reassure regional allies,” Alhamidi said. “But despite all this, the Houthis have not been fundamentally weakened. They’ve adapted.”
Indeed, years of war have taught the Houthis to survive. “They’ve dispersed their assets, fortified themselves in the mountains, and shifted to asymmetric tactics,” Mareb Al-Ward, a Yemeni political analyst and journalist, told The Media Line. He added that the Houthis “remain operational” despite US strikes.
Houthis claim shooting down MQ-9 Reaper drones
In recent weeks, the Houthis have indeed demonstrated their ability to target US military assets, shooting down several MQ-9 Reaper drones—each worth approximately $30 million. According to defense analysts, the group has used surface-to-air missiles and electronic warfare to disable or destroy at least seven drones since February, causing significant financial and operational losses for the United States.
The US characterizes its military actions in Yemen as precision operations targeting terrorist infrastructure, but the human toll keeps rising. Earlier this month, an airstrike on Ras Isa port left more than 250 workers dead or wounded, reportedly with no advance warning.
“There should have been a warning to evacuate them before the strike,” Al Jaberi said.
Within Houthi-run areas, information is tightly controlled. According to Alhamidi, the Houthis have launched a “systemic campaign of intimidation” aimed at preventing activists, journalists, and civil society organizations from leaking information. “Even leaking information about strike zones can lead to threats of execution,” he said.
Houthi crackdowns on free speech aren’t a new phenomenon, Al-Ward said, but they are intensifying. “These conditions also make it harder for the world to know the real cost of this war,” he explained.
Despite their resilience, the Houthis are not universally supported. Alhamidi described a “gradual erosion of public support—especially as repression, poverty, and corruption worsen.”
Many in Yemen support the Palestinian cause and oppose foreign intervention, Al-Ward said, “but that doesn’t mean they back Houthi rule.” What Yemenis want, he said, “is peace, food, and some kind of future.”
The Houthis are sometimes described as an Iranian proxy much like Hezbollah or Shiite militias in Iraq, but Alhamidi described the Houthi-Iranian relationship as “strategic coordination, not subordination.” A hardline faction within the group receives training and guidance from Tehran, he said, but the Houthis maintain tactical independence in Yemen.
Many expected Houthi behavior to soften as the Shiite axis has lost power in the region. “Instead, they escalated,” Al-Ward said. “They’re testing boundaries—trying to boost their negotiating position without losing regional tolerance.”
Beyond the front lines, daily life in Yemen continues to collapse. “The economic situation is catastrophic,” Alhamidi said. “People have no salaries. Prices are soaring. Aid is vanishing. Even relief workers are being arrested.”
“Infrastructure is falling apart—hospitals, schools, water networks,” he continued. “Each new airstrike further delays food and medicine. Yemen is spiraling into one of the worst humanitarian catastrophes on the planet.”
Meanwhile, the internationally recognized Yemeni government, represented by the Presidential Leadership Council, has little domestic presence.
“They suffer from deep internal divisions and rely heavily on foreign backing,” Al Jaberi explained. “The people don’t see them as legitimate.”
Alhamidi added that the council has failed to “deliver basic governance” to the people.
He described three possible paths forward for Yemen: “A violent confrontation if diplomacy fails; an UN-sponsored settlement where the Houthis are part of a transitional government; or deeper fragmentation, with Yemen descending further into division and foreign interference.”
“Without transitional justice, without political reform, there can be no real peace. We need a new social contract—one that restores faith in the state,” he continued.
Al-Ward added that tribal dynamics in Yemen could tip the scales. “Tribes are the most serious internal challenge to the Houthis. They’re watching, waiting,” he said.
If there is any bridge across this uncertain landscape, it may lie in Oman’s quiet mediation, which Alhamidi said “has become essential” “They maintain backchannels between the Houthis, the Saudis, and the international community—and they do it without imposing conditions,” he explained.
China, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are also expanding their roles. “But only a Yemeni-led solution, supported rather than dictated by outsiders, can bring real stability,” Al-Ward said.
As the civilian body count rises and airstrikes continue, the silence from international corridors is felt deeply on Yemeni streets. The crisis, long eclipsed by more visible conflicts, is now crying out for a reckoning.
As Alhamidi put it, “This country cannot afford another decade of war, and Yemenis—civilians, not soldiers—are paying the price every single day.”
end
EGYPT USA
Trump Demands Sisi Give US Ships Free Passage Through Suez, Support Against Houthis
Thursday, May 01, 2025 – 11:50 PM
US President Donald Trump asked his Egyptian counterpart, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, for American ships to enjoy free passage through the Suez Canal in an April phone call, as the US presses ahead with its bombing campaign against the Houthis in Yemen.
Trump has made no secret of his belief that US vessels should transit the strategic waterway for free. On Saturday, he publicly demanded as much, saying the canal “would not exist without the United States of America.” One Egyptian MP was reported as characterizing the Trump administration’s moves as blackmail and rubbished Trump’s claim about the canal’s existence, saying it was “purely Egyptian”.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that Trump raised the issue with Sisi directly this month. The two leaders spoke on April 1.
An Egyptian readout of the call stated that the two leaders “discussed developments in the Middle East and mediation efforts to restore calm to the region, which reflects positively on navigation in the Red Sea.”
At the end of 2024, Egypt’s presidential office said the country had lost at least $7bn in Suez Canal revenue.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump told Sisi the US wanted Egyptian support for its campaign against the Houthis, including military assistance, intelligence sharing and funding, because the US bombing campaign would help to restore traffic through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Sisi sidestepped the request and told Trump the best way to address the Houthi threat was a ceasefire in Gaza.
The conversation dovetails with Trump’s public messaging on the Suez Canal. His reasoning also aligns with that of private discussions between US senior officials, as revealed in a leaked Signal group chat earlier this year.
“As I heard it, the president was clear: green light, but we soon make clear to Egypt and Europe what we expect in return,” one person identified in a group chat started by national security advisor Mike Waltz was revealed as saying in The Atlantic.
The person was identified as SM, which appears to refer to Trump adviser Stephen Miller. “If the US successfully restores freedom of navigation at great cost, there needs to be some further economic gain extracted in return,” the Signal user said.
Trump’s demand for Egypt to provide military support or economic assistance to the US is a stark reversal in the two countries’ post-war relationship, which usually has it the other way around.
The US brokered the 1979 peace treaty between Israel and Egypt. Since then, the US has provided roughly $1.3bn in military aid to Egypt. But ties between Egypt and the US have been dented by Israel’s war on Gaza. US diplomats in Cairo have tried to dissuade the Trump administration from pressing Egypt to accept forcibly displaced Palestinians, Middle East Eye reported previously.
Egyptian officials are already simmering with anger at the US for siding with Israel when the latter seized Gaza’s southern city of Rafah in May 2024 and accused Egypt of being negligent in policing the border.
MEE revealed in March that the UAE, a close patron of Egypt, was lobbying the Trump administration against a plan that Cairo introduced to the Arab League for post-war governance of the Gaza Strip.
According to US and Egyptian officials, the US has told Egypt it is considering cutting military aid. The officials say the threat to cut aid stems from frustration within Trump’s inner circle that Egypt has refused to accept forcibly displaced Palestinians.
Trump’s call for Sisi to support the US bombing campaign against the Houthis is not the first time Sisi has had to resist appeals to become involved in Yemen. Egypt was one of the first countries to leave a Saudi-led coalition that was bombing the Houthis in 2016.
Egypt has a long history in Yemen, and the Arabian Gulf country is often equated to Egypt’s “Vietnam” by Arab officials – a play on the US’s gruelling war in Asia. During the 1960s, Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser intervened in Yemen’s civil war, backing so-called Republicans against Royalists.
RUSSIA VS UKRAINE
6. GLOBAL ISSUES//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES/HEALTH ISSUE
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
RFK Jr. HHS Secretary to order all new vaccines going in front of FDA etc. to be tested against PLACEBO! BOOM! Excellent move by RFK Jr. for ONLY then can we know if it worked in the first place
testing against NOTHING, or inert substance. If you test against an active comparator, active vaccine, you are saying if it does better or worse than that vaccine but we still have no idea if it works
| Dr. Paul AlexanderMay 1 |
Large sample sized, pragmatic, simple, long-term, proper patient-important outcome placebo controlled double and triple blinded RCTs are needed. This must be the baseline for FDA as part of any approval process.
This is a good move and by opponents of POTUS Trump to say that it makes vaccines unsafe and that the placebo group will get nothing, makes no sense. This actually will tell us maybe for the first time if the vaccine actually is working (or drug that the FDA usually rubber stamps corruptibly) and if it is safe. Note, we do not want corrupted methods like immuno-bridging and elevated antibody titers as the outcomes, we need patient important outcomes like death and hospitalization etc.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is good news, thank you POTUS Trump for nominating RFK Jr. The steps at redress at HHS and agencies are slow but it is good they are coming, keep it so. At the same time, we need proper acute robust surveillance systems to look long-term (and in the short-term) at the vaccines and drugs long term and especially the fraudulent mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna. The mRNA vaccines have proven harmful.
Great move RFK Jr., Bobby Kennedy Jr. This is an improvement from status quo and will make even drugs safer is same is required. We actually need to look back in time at the drugs and vaccines and medical devices approved by FDA for USA market. I fear many are ineffective and unsafe yet were licensed.
___
You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.
Enter the Wellness Company as a solution and a willing participant in the health care conversation. From telemedicine, prescriptions, memberships, and supplements, TWC is leading America with alternative choices to the traditional health care model.
SLAY NEWS
———- Forwarded message ———
| The latest reports from Slay NewsCanadian Government Begins Testing Inhaled Covid mRNA ‘AeroVax’The Canadian government has begun ramping up testing for a chilling new Covid mRNA “AeroVax” that seeks to overcome “vaccine hesitancy” by using aerosols to “vaccinate” the general public.READ MOREDutch Scientists Expose Fake Data on Death Rates Among Covid-VaxxedA group of Dutch scientists has revealed that global data on all-cause mortality rates had been faked to show that Covid mRNA “vaccines” were far safer than they are.READ MOREHegseth Drops Hammer on Iran: ‘You Will Pay’Department of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has sent a stern message to Iran over the Islamic Republic’s backing of Houthi terrorists.READ MORE2 Young Runners Drop Dead from Cardiac Arrest After Completing Oregon Half MarathonsTwo young runners have tragically died from cardiac arrest after completing half-marathon races in Oregon.READ MOREKamala Harris Slams Trump in New Speech: ‘Absolute Chaos’Twice-failed Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris has taken aim at President Donald Trump in a fiery new speech.READ MORETrump Erupts, Nukes ABC Host in Fiery Oval Office InterviewPresident Donald Trump shredded ABC News anchor Terry Moran during a contentious interview in the Oval Office.READ MOREKristi Noem Purse Thief Was Set Free by Democrat-run ‘Sanctuary’ for Similar Crime Just Weeks EarlierThe illegal alien criminal who was arrested for stealing Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Kristi Noem’s purse had previously been released back onto the streets by a so-called “sanctuary” city just weeks prior.READ MORETrump Fires Doug Emhoff from Holocaust Memorial CouncilPresident Donald Trump took a decisive step on his 100th day in the Oval Office by dismissing Kamala Harris’s husband, Doug Emhoff, from the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Council.READ MOREConservative Activist David Horowitz Dead at 86Legendary conservative opinion leader, activist, and author David Horowitz passed away, his foundation has announced.READ MORECalifornia Democrat: Every Illegal Alien ‘Living in My District Is My Constituent’Democrat Rep. Norma Torres (D-CA) has declared that all illegal aliens who are living in her district are her constituents.READ MOREDOGE Caucus Officials Meeting with Trump as Elon Musk Prepares to Step BackOfficials are meeting with Trump at the White House as Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) senior advisor Elon Musk prepares to step back from his role in President Donald Trump’s administration.READ MOREMexico Received 39,000 Deportees from America in Trump’s First 100 DaysThe Mexican government has revealed that Mexico accepted 39,000 deportees who had been removed from the United States during President Donald Trump’s first 100 days.READ MOREArrested Activist Judge Hannah Dugan Hires Bush Solicitor General as Defense LawyerRadical activist Judge Hannah Dugan has just hired former President George W. Bush’s Solicitor General Paul Clemente to serve on her legal defense team.READ MORE |
NEWS ADDICTS
| LATEST NEWS |
| Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs rejects plea deal ahead of sex trafficking trialHip-hop mogul Sean “Diddy” Combs has officially declined a federal plea deal just days before the start of his highly publicized sex trafficking and racketeering trial. The rejection sets the stage for a legal showdown that could lead to a life sentence if he’s convicted on all charges. Appearing in court Thursday in a beige jail-issued uniform, Combs told Judge …READ MORE |
| Mike Waltz out as national security adviser, but Trump says he’ll be ambassador to United NationsPresident Donald Trump announced that he will nominate Mike Waltz to serve as the next U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, calling him a “patriot who has always put America First.” The decision comes after months of internal deliberation and behind-the-scenes discussion about changes at the National Security Council (NSC). According to sources close to the matter, Waltz’s departure stems …READ MORE |
| Former Democrat politician who called for Trump’s assassination arrested for eyebrow raising stingA former Democrat politician and candidate for Georgia’s House of Representatives, Carl Sprayberry, has been arrested in connection with a wide-ranging child sex trafficking investigation dubbed “Operation Lights Out.” The sting, which took place from April 25 to April 28, involved multiple law enforcement agencies and led to the arrests of 19 individuals allegedly involved in attempting to exploit children … |
EVOL NEWS
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL/ENERGY/
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUE
CANADA
not good for Canada
(Canada Press)
GM cutting shift at Oshawa plant that employs 3,000 workers, citing U.S. tariffs
Plant moving from a three shift to two shift operation, GM says
CBC News · Posted: May 02, 2025 7:52 AM EDT | Last Updated: 6 minutes ago
Social Sharing
General Motors is cutting one of three shifts at its Oshawa Assembly Plant, which employs around 3,000 workers, due to U.S. tariffs, the company and the union representing workers confirmed on Friday.
The plant is moving from a three shift to a two shift operation starting this fall, according to a news release from Unifor, which represents workers there.
“We will not allow GM to barter Canadian jobs to gain Donald Trump’s favour,” said Unifor National President Lana Payne in the statement.
“Cutting the third shift at Oshawa Assembly is a reckless decision that deals a direct blow to our members and threatens to ripple through the entire auto parts supplier network.”
- ‘In a fight with one man’: Trump’s tariffs have autoworkers in Oshawa, Ont., on edge
- 68,000 job losses possible in Ontario this year due to U.S. trade war: report
The cuts come as workers in Oshawa’s auto industry have been bracing for the impact of U.S. tariffs on their livelihoods. President Donald Trump slapped a 25 per cent tariff on all vehicle imports to the U.S. last month.
WATCH | Fourth-generation worker at Oshawa GM plant feels ‘frustrated and tired’ about tariffs:
Feels like Trump has ‘declared war’ through tariffs: autoworker | Hanomansing Tonight
:14Rebecca Keetch has been working at General Motors since 2006. She tells Hanomansing Tonight that U.S. President Donald Trump’s auto tariffs have made her frustrated and tired.
GM’s Oshawa plant “will return to a two-shift operation in light of forecasted demand and the evolving trade environment,” spokesperson Jennifer Wright said in an email to CBC Toronto on Friday.
“These changes will help support a sustainable manufacturing footprint as GM reorients the Oshawa plant to build more trucks in Canada for Canadian customers,” she said.
Wright said the company “will work with our partners to support employees through the transition.”
The Oshawa plant assembles light and heavy-duty Chevrolet Silverado pick-up trucks for the North American market, which are also assembled at factories in the U.S. and Mexico, Unifor said.
Premature move, union president says
Payne said General Motors jumped the gun by announcing shift cuts before Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump began talks on a new economic deal, calling the move “premature and disrespectful.”
Carney is set to address Canadians about his plans for governing at 11 a.m. Friday, which you’ll be able to watch live on CBC News.
He’s expected to meet with Trump in the coming weeks.
The union called on the federal government to “review and reconsider” GM’s tariff-exempt status under Canada’s remission framework in Friday’s release.
This framework grants companies relief from paying tariffs on products from the U.S., according to the government’s website.
It also called on Carney to meet with automakers to reaffirm their commitment to Canadian investment and production.
Automobile parts that are compliant with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) on trade are exempt from the 25 per cent tariff, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection guidance announced on Thursday.
But Payne said the new guidance “changes nothing” for the Canadian auto industry.
“It is solely designed to keep U.S. factories running, because they rely heavily on Canadian made auto parts, while continuing to harm Canada’s auto assembly plants,” she said.
- Trump says order to soften auto tariffs’ impact will give a ‘little relief’ to industry
- ‘Don’t shut up’: Canadian auto sector’s strategy to fight Trump tariffs
Close to 98 per cent of workers at the Oshawa plant were either laid off or went into retirement after GM closed the plant in 2019. Vehicle production resumed in late 2021.
“GM Oshawa was reopened thanks to the hard work of our members and significant investments by the federal and provincial governments based on a promise to maintain good jobs and production,” said Chris Waugh, Unifor GM Oshawa Assembly Plant Chairperson, in Friday’s news release.
“We will not sit idly by as that promise is eroded one shift at a time.”
With files from The Canadian Press
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO/USA: 1.1342 UP 0.0047 PTS OR 47 BASIS POINTS
USA/ YEN 144.49 DOWN 0.909 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3292 UP .0006 OR 6 BASIS PTS
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3822 DOWN 0.0023 (CDN DOLLAR UP 23 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 7.62 PTS OR 0.23%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 378.36 PTS OR 1.04%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.08%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 385.27 PTS 0R 1.74%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.08%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 378.38 PTS OR 1.04%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 3268.60
silver:$32.34
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 99.58 DOWN .48 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.032 % UP 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.261% UP 1/2 FULL POINTS AND 0/100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.143 UP 3 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.590 UP 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.4865 UP 4 BASIS PTS
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MID DAY FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1346 UP .0050 OR 50 basis points
USA/Japan: 144.11 DOWN 1.284 OR YEN IS UP 128 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.499 UP 2 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP 0.0062 OR 62 BASIS pts to 1.3786
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The USA/Yuan XXXXXXXXXX, CNY ON SHORE ..CHINA MUST DEVALUE TO GOLD
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE UP TO 7.2120:
TURKISH LIRA: 38.55 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.261
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.279% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.790 UP 5 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.760 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 3250.65
SILVER AT 11;00: 32.43
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 99.58 PTS OR 1.17%
GERMAN DAX: closed up 589.67 pts or 2.62%
FRANCE: closed up 176.61 pts or 2.33%
Spain IBEX CLOSED 158.90 pts or 1.20 %
Italian MIB: CLOSEDup 723.12 or 1.92%
WTI Oil price 59.11 11 EST/
Brent Oil: 61.76 11:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 83.23 ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 22/ 100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4865 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.4990 UP 2 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.173 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.763 UP 6 BASIS PTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1304 UP 0.0008 OR 8 BASIS POINTS//
British Pound: 1.3278 DOWN .0008 OR 8 basis pts/
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.5000 up 2 FULL BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.270
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 145.03 DOWN 0.373 BASIS PTS
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3808 DOWN 0.0040 BASIS PTS CDN DOLLAR UP 40 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 58.50
Brent OIL: 61.60
USA 10 yr bond yield up 8 BASIS pts to 4.309
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS PTS to 4.788%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 12 PTS AT 3.826%
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.203 UP 10 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.794 UP 7 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 99.82 DOWN 24 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 38.57 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 82.75 DOWN 0 AND 75/100 roubles
GOLD $3233.60 (3:30 PM)
SILVER: 32.02 (3:30 PM)
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 564.47 OR 1.39%
NASDAQ 100 UP 315.90 PTS OR 1.60%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 22.70 DOWN 1.90 PTS OR 7.72%
GLD: $ 297.98 UP 0.52 PTS OR 0.17%
SLV/ $29.12 DOWN 0.27 PTS OR OR 0.92%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: CLOSED UP 235.96 OR 0.95%
end
TRADING today ZEROHEDGE 4 PM: HEADLINE NEWS
S&P’s Longest Win Streak In 21 Years Erases All Liberation-Day Losses; Big-Tech & Bitcoin Lead Gains
MORNING BIG NEWS
Payrolls Post-Mortem: Stocks Soar, Rate-Cut Odds Plunge But There’s Something ‘Disturbing
Friday, May 02, 2025 – 09:23 AM
Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,
The headline data for NFP was much stronger than expected at 177k.
That doesn’t match well with JOLTS which has been indicating weaker conditions (and it is an extra month behind), and it doesn’t tie in with ADP which was a very weak 62k.
Downward revisions of 58k take some of the umph out of the report.
The Household part of the survey (which drives the Unemployment rate) added 305k Full-time jobs and 56k in Part-time jobs (which helped the underemployment rate drop to 7.8% from 7.9%). The unemployment rate of 4.2%, while unchanged, is impressive as the labor force increased by 0.1% to 62.6%.
It was also encouraging that hourly earnings came in a 0.2% for the month (healthy but not inflationary) and hours worked, often a precursor for more hiring, was 34.3 hours this month and was revised up to that figure for last month as well.
The Birth/Death model accounted for 393,000 jobs!
Apparently, in the face of economic uncertainty, a lot of new businesses were started?
That was the biggest number since 2023! The prior 5 months had averaged -10k.
It is a bit “disturbing” (to me) that a number that is derived from estimations plays such an outsized role in the report.
126,000 professional/business services jobs were created? I guess a lot of people set up businesses to help with taxes?
What are the odds that a lot of people signed up EIN’s (Employer Identification Number) so they could do something in the gig economy?
I am highly suspicious of the accuracy of this number, but, unfortunately, policy makers seem to take it at face value, only to ignore it, when it is eventually reduced significantly, during annual or quarterly reviews.
Any Risks?
Weirdly, I see some risks from this report.
- Policy will be made based on the strength of the report, which, after revisions and expressing any doubt whatsoever about the birth/death model additions, wasn’t so great.
- The Fed has been given ammunition to remain hawkish next week. Had we been under 100k, there would have been reason to expect a very dovish Fed, and maybe even a rate cut.
- The biggest risk, as I see it, is this encourages the administration to be more aggressive on their tariff strategy, as this could be taken as an indication that their tariff strategy is working and is creating jobs (though 1k was lost in manufacturing). Given how the market responded overnight to news that China would be open to talks, any double down on tariffs (rather than deal making and backtracking) would not be great.
Bottom Line
Not good for bonds, pushes the Fed put further away… [ZH: June rate-cut expectations plunged]
Should be decent for risk, but risk will remain primarily driven by tariffs, trade deals and the big spending bill…
…all of which will determine the direction of the economy for months or even years.
USA DATA NEWS
pay no attention to this contrived garbage report
April Jobs Unexpectedly Jump By 177,000, Higher Than All Estimates
Friday, May 02, 2025 – 09:02 AM
Ahead of today’s jobs report, we knew the number would be a big drop from March’s 228K, the only question was how big said drop would be, and whether a tariff hit would be accounted for in today’s number (as we said in our preview). We got the answer moments ago when the BLS reported that in April the US added 177K jobs, which while certainly a big drop from last month’s 228K, came in well above the Wall Street median estimate of 138K, and clearly indicated that the tariff hit has yet to come.
While hardly a blowout number, today’s print was so strong, it came above the highest Wall Street estimate of 171K.
Also notable: taking a page from the Biden playbook, the March jobs report was revised dramatically lower, from 228K to 185K, the third consecutive downward revision of job numbers in a row.
The change in February payrolls was also revised down by 15,000, from +117,000 to +102,000. Combined with the 43,000 downward revision in March, employment in February and March combined is 58,000 lower than previously reported.
The unemployment rate was unchanged as expected, printing at 4.2%, as the number of employed workers rose 436K to 163.944MM, while the number of unemployed rose by 82K to 7.165MM. Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.0 percent), adult women (3.7 percent), teenagers (12.9 percent), Whites (3.8 percent), Blacks (6.3 percent), Asians (3.0 percent), and Hispanics (5.2 percent) showed little or no change over the month.
Another improvement: the labor force participation rate, at 62.6%, rose from 62.5% last month, and was above the 62.5% median estimate.
Thanks to the big jump in the Household survey, the gap with the Establishment survey closed some more in April.
There was more good news in wages, where hourly earnings rose 0.2% in April, below the 0.3% estimate and down from the 0.3% increase last month. On an annual basis, wage growth also printed below estimates, rising 3.8%, the same as March, and below the 3.9% estimates last month.
In April, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 6 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $36.06. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8 percent. In April, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 10 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $31.06.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.3 hours in April. In manufacturing, the average workweek edged down by 0.2 hour to 40.0 hours, and overtime was unchanged at 2.9 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained at 33.8 hours in April.
Taking a closer look at the stats in today’s report we find the following:
- In April, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 179,000 to 1.7 million. The long-term unemployed accounted for 23.5 percent of all unemployed people.
- The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 million, changed little in April. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
- In April, the number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job was little changed at 5.7 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
- Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.6 million, changed little in April. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, also changed little over the month at 414,000.
Here is a breakdown of jobs by sector:
- Health care added 51,000 jobs in April, about the same as the average monthly gain of 52,000 over the prior 12 months. In April, job growth continued in hospitals (+22,000) and ambulatory health care services (+21,000).
- Employment in transportation and warehousing increased by 29,000 in April, following little change in the prior month (+3,000). Job gains occurred in warehousing and storage (+10,000), couriers and messengers (+8,000), and air transportation (+3,000) in April. Transportation and warehousing had added an average of 12,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.
- In April, financial activities employment continued to trend up (+14,000). The industry has added 103,000 jobs since its employment trough in April 2024.
- Employment in social assistance continued its upward trend in April (+8,000) but at a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+20,000).
- Within government, federal government employment declined by 9,000 in April and is down by 26,000 since January.
Employment showed little or no change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; information; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.
Looking at the qualitative composition of the labor market, in April the number of full-time workers rose by 305K, while part-time workers increased by 56K, a long-awaited return to normalcy where full-time (non-illegal immigrant) labor leads.
And tied to that, the number of multiple jobholders dropped by 76K from a record 8.936 million to 8.860 million.
Last but not least, and perhaps most important, is that the one topic that perhaps defined the 2024 election, the record divergence between native and foreign born workers, finally normalized, and in April over 1 million native-born workers were added, while 410K foreign-born workers exited the labor force.
end
Native-Born Workers Surge By Over 1 Million, Back To All-Time High, As Govt Employees Tumb
Friday, May 02, 2025 – 11:25 AM
For much of the past 4 years we dutifully reported, month after month, how the US labor market under the Biden administration “grew” almost entirely on the back of “foreign-born” workers, who – as we also first revealed and eventually was widely accepted – were primarily illegal aliens:
- Great Replacement Job Shock: 1.3 Million Native-Born Americans Just Lost Their Jobs, Replaced By 635,000 Immigrants: Sept 2024
- Wall Street Admits The Biggest Economic Shocker: All Jobs In The Past Year Have Gone To Illegal Aliens: June, 2024
- Stunning statistic: there has been ZERO INCREASE in jobs for native-born workers in over five years, since July 2018!: Jan 2024
More importantly, as we predicted at the start of 2024…
… the composition of the labor market would become one of the biggest political talking points, one which was hammered constantly by Trump in his political rallies and during his debate with Biden.
We bring this up because deep inside today’s jobs report we got the best news yet: after literally flatlining in late 2019, having plunged during covid and barely recovering to its pre-covid levels, the number of native born workers is now back to its all time high, 132.228 million.
That’s because in April, the number of native-born workers surged by just over 1 million, from 131.186 million to 132.228 million. Meanwhile, the number of foreign-born workers – who as we explained previously were mostly undocumented, or illegal, aliens – dropped by 410K from a record 32.225 million.
Or, as so many people have already said, this is what a majority of Americans voted for.
Actually, they voted for something else too: after hitting a record high in December, the last month of Biden’s admin, the number of Federal government employees has declined for 4 consecutive months to the lowest level in over a year. Thank you DOGE.
So while there has been pain, and there will be a lot more pain, America is finally returning to some semblance of a long-term viable trendline.
APPLE/CHINA SALES OF APPLE
Apple Slides On China Sales Slump And Soft Service Revenue, Despite Tariff Frontrunning Revenue Boost And New $100BN Buyback
Thursday, May 01, 2025 – 05:42 PM
Ahead of Apple’s earnings report this afternoon, which concludes the results from big 4 group of the Mag 7 (including MSFT, META and AMZN) UBS said that sentiment was a 5/10, with the bank’s analyst expecting some pull-forward offsetting soft demand, while creating tougher 2H compares with the consensus too optimistic. UBS, which has a $210 price target, reiterated its $210 price target (Neutral) warnings that although the rich valuation remains a perennial overhang, sentiment is more cautious given the ongoing tariff and market share headwinds. The bottom line: with the mild short bias ahead of the print, there was a decent chance for a tactical bounce due to pull-ins, but probably not enough to alleviate the ongoing concerns.
And sure enough, 30 minutes after AMZN disappointed with lackluster AWS profit margins and a soft operating profit forecast, it would be 2 for 2 for the bears, with AAPL stock sliding on disappointing China sales even as tariff fears sent iPhone purchases across the world into overdrive. Here are the details:
- Adjusted EPS $1.65 vs. $1.53 y/y, beating estimate $1.62
- Total revenue $95.36 billion, +5.1% y/y, beating estimate $94.59 billion
- Products revenue $68.71 billion, +2.7% y/y, beating estimate $67.84 billion
- IPhone revenue $46.84 billion, +1.9% y/y, beating estimate $45.94 billion
- Mac revenue $7.95 billion, +6.7% y/y, beating estimate $7.75 billion
- IPad revenue $6.40 billion, +15% y/y, beating estimate $6.12 billion
- Wearables, home and accessories $7.52 billion, -4.9% y/y, missing estimate $8.05 billion
- Service revenue $26.65 billion, +12% y/y, missing estimates if $26.72 billion – this was the first red flag.
The second, and even bigger, red flag was the usual suspect: China, where revenues unexpectedly slumped, sliding 2.3%, while Wall Street was expecting a mid-single digit growth
- Greater China rev. $16.00 billion, -2.3% y/y, missing estimates of $16.83 billion
Going down the line:
- Total operating expenses $15.28 billion, +6.3% y/y, higher than estimate $15.17 billion
- Gross margin $44.87 billion, +6.1% y/y, higher than estimate $44.58 billion
- Cash and cash equivalents $28.16 billion, -14% y/y, missing estimates of $32.73 billion
- Cost of sales $50.49 billion, +4.1% y/y, higher than estimate $50.23 billion
And so on:
Looking at a breakdown of sales by product category it was a generally solid report, although that was to be expected as a result of pulled forward demand for iPhones ahead of tariffs which would likely push prices sharply higher. Here are the details: .
- IPhone revenue $46.84 billion, +1.9% y/y, beating estimates $45.94 billion but much of this was due to pulled forward sales ahead of tariffs
- Mac revenue $7.95 billion, +6.7% y/y, beating estimates of $7.75 billion, same logic here
- IPad revenue $6.40 billion, +15% y/y, beating estimates of $6.12 billion
- Wearables, home and accessories $7.52 billion, -4.9% y/y, big miss to estimate $8.05 billion
Bottom line, while most segments came in stronger than expected, much of this will likely reverse in Q3 when tariffs push prices higher (because tariffs are inflationary right), meanwhile, Apple’s wearables segment (where one can find the Vision Pro disaster) remains a big disappointment, and the new low-end AirPods and hearing features for the AirPods Pro apparently did not draw much interest.
Here is the full revenue breakdown by product:
But if iPhone sales was solid (if transitory) the devastation that is China sales was catastrophic: contrary to expectations for a modest rebound, as China sales declined for a seventh consecutive quarter, down 2.3%, and printing at only $16BN, below the $16.9BN estimate.The rest of the world saw growth, modest in the Americas at 8.2%, and stronger in Japan and APAC, while Europe barely grew.
And in dollar terms:
Needless to say, China continues to be a very weak spot for Apple and the company hasn’t done much to push new products, pricing and initiatives in that market — or other emerging areas — to offset the issues. The weakness there, which Apple will try to explain away in its conference call, is because of a combination of nationalism and interest in local products, whose designs are getting better. The local players are also trying new things like foldables while Apple continues to use the same design it rolled out five years ago. Oh, and Trump’s trade war which is getting worse by the day, isn’t helping.
The result: revenues declining now for an unprecedented 7 quarters!
There was more: Service revenue, which for many years was the only golden goose left in AAPL’s roster, is starting to sputter, and even though it rose to a new record $26.65 billion, this missed estimates of $26.72 billion and the growth rate was the lowest in two years.
The company has been contending with multiple challenges, beyond just the looming tariffs. Apple is playing catch-up in artificial intelligence, forcing it to shuffle management in recent weeks. It’s also under mounting regulatory pressure in the EU and its home country. On Wednesday, a federal judge demanded that the company open up its App Store to third-party payment options and stop charging commissions on outside purchases.
But tariffs remain one of the biggest question marks. Though Apple is likely to sidestep the 145% China levy that the administration originally proposed, new tariffs on electronics are still coming. The turmoil threatens to upend the company’s supply chain and potentially force it to raise prices. Already, Apple is looking to make more of its US-bound iPhones in India rather than China. Ironically, it was tariffs that helped the company revenues beat estimates as customers flooded Apple retail stores to buy new iPhones and other products out of fear that price hikes were coming.
In the press release, CEO Tim Cook tried hard to stay positive, but failed.
“Today Apple is reporting strong quarterly results, including double-digit growth in Services,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “We were happy to welcome iPhone 16e to our lineup, and to introduce powerful new Macs and iPads that take advantage of the extraordinary capabilities of Apple silicon. And we were proud to announce that we’ve cut our carbon emissions by 60 percent over the past decade.”
The bigger problem is what he said on the conference call, where it said that he hadn’t seen excess pull forward demand in Q1 (it did)…
- COOK: DIDN’T SEE EXTRA DEMAND IN MARCH QUARTER ON TARIFFS
… and pretended not to know what the tariff impact will be:
- COOK: NOT SURE WHAT TARIFF IMPACT WILL BE AFTER JUNE QUARTER
Trump’s tariff policy may be unclear to Cook, but what is clear to everyone, is that growth for AAPL is slowing fast:
- *APPLE CFO: Q3 REVENUE TO GROW LOW TO MID-SINGLE DIGITS YOY
Which was the same guidance as the current quarter, and the market is starting to realize Cook isn’t sandbagging… instead the debate what is the right multiple on a company that has now officially flatlined. To be sure the kneejerk reaction was not happy, with AAPL stocks sliding about 3% after hours, the second consecutive quarter in which the market punished AAPL earnings, to just above $206 after closing today at the highest price since Trump’s Liberation Day.
Not even the news that the iPhone maker authorized a new $100 billion stock buyback and boosted its quarterly dividend 4% to 26 cents a share, was enough to prop up the stock.
USA ECONOMIC NEWS
125,000 New Yorkers Fled For Florida The Last 5 Years, Taking $14 Billion With Them
Friday, May 02, 2025 – 01:40 PM
More than 125,000 New Yorkers relocated to Florida over a recent five-year span, draining the Empire State of nearly $14 billion in income, according to a new report from the Citizens Budget Commission (CBC), a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog, reported on by the New York Post.
Roughly a third of those fleeing New York City—some 41,251 residents—resettled in Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Broward counties between 2018 and 2022, resulting in a $10 billion loss in adjusted gross income (AGI) for the city. An additional $3.8 billion in income was lost to other Florida destinations.
“They are getting something more beneficial to them,” said CBC President Andrew Rein. “The key is with any place you need the benefits to outweigh the cost. The question right now for New York is what do we offer?”
The CBC attributes the exodus to a mix of affordability concerns, public safety, quality of life, and lingering pandemic effects. Only 30% of New Yorkers rated city life as “good or excellent” in 2023—down from 50% pre-pandemic.
The Post writes that high-income earners led the charge. Miami-Dade saw an influx of ex-New Yorkers with average incomes topping $266,000. Palm Beach newcomers earned around $189,000, while Fairfield County, Connecticut, drew residents with an average income of $141,000. Notably, New York’s top 1% of earners pay 40% of the state’s income taxes.
“One of the critical issues of our time is keeping our competitiveness for businesses and residents,” Rein said. “We need to focus on ensuring we don’t tax too much, that we are a safe place to live, and that people find quality of life to be high.”
Florida wasn’t the only winner. Nearby suburbs absorbed thousands of city dwellers:
- Long Island gained 138,000 NYC expats, costing the city $11.1 billion in AGI.
- Westchester County added nearly 60,000, for a $5 billion hit.
- Fairfield County took in 31,000, costing $4.9 billion.
- Bergen County, New Jersey, saw over 30,000 newcomers, with a $1.8 billion impact.
Altogether, relocations within the Northeast accounted for a $22.8 billion loss in AGI and a population decline of more than 230,000.
Despite a doubling of millionaires in New York from 2010 to 2022—from 36,000 to 70,000—the state’s share of U.S. millionaires dropped sharply, falling from 12.7% to 8.7%.
“Our competitiveness depends in part on quality of life and public safety,” said Rein. “Simply put, some people found the value proposition of other places to be higher than New York City.”
end
RFK Jr: HHS Became A “Collaborator In Child Trafficking” Under Bid
Friday, May 02, 2025 – 02:05 PM
Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr. said Wednesday that HHS is no longer facilitating child trafficking in the United States and is instead “very aggressively” searching for the hundreds of thousands of migrant children lost by the Biden administration.
“We have ended HHS’s role as the principal vector in this country for child trafficking,” Kennedy said during a White House Cabinet meeting with President Trump and other top administration officials to mark the first 100 days of the president’s second term.
“During the Biden administration, HHS became a collaborator in child trafficking for sex and for slavery, and we have ended that,” RFK Jr. declared.
In November 0f 2022, an HHS volunteer came forward to accuse the Biden regime of knowingly participating in the sex-trafficking of minor children after observing how it processed unaccompanied migrant children at an HHS Emergency Intake Site in Pomona, California.
The whistleblower, Tara Lee Rodas, went to Project Veritas with her first hand account of how the Biden regime’s corrupt child sponsorship program exploited and endangered vulnerable unaccompanied minors by placing them with criminal, noncitizen sponsors.
In some cases, dozens of unaccompanied alien children (UAC) were sent to the same residence of an unvetted sponsor.
Thousands of these minors “ended up in punishing jobs across the country—working overnight in slaughterhouses, replacing roofs, operating machinery in factories—all in violation of child labor laws,” the New York Times reported in February of 2023.
In August of 2024, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Inspector General released a blistering report showing that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) had lost track of up to 320,000 unaccompanied minors over the previous five years.
Approximately 291,000 of those were released into the U.S. and never given a date to appear in immigration court.
Another 32,000 children were released with hearing dates but failed to show up to their immigration hearings.
“We’re very aggressively going out and trying to find these 300,000 children that were lost by the Biden administration,” RFK Jr. said Wednesday.
Homeland Security agents in California recently rescued two teenage migrant sisters from Honduras who were being held in captivity at a hotel in West Covina, California, the New York Post reported.
Christopher Ramirez was allegedly “pimping” the sisters, ages 16 and 18, sources told the Post.
The youngest victim was placed in the custody of Biden’s HHS, which placed her with her sponsor. The older teen was released after declining “services or placement.”
Cops with the West Covina Police Department initially found the girls and arrested Ramirez on local charges.
The feds are still looking for co-conspirators who helped move the migrant girls, who are from Honduras, from Texas to California and forced them into prostitution, sources said.
Ramirez is also facing federal charges.
The Trump administration has reunited approximately 5,000 unaccompanied migrant children with family members or “safe guardians” in its first 70 days, Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Trici McLaughlin said in an X post.
“Unlike the previous administration, President Trump and Secretary [Kristi] Noem take the responsibility to protect children seriously and will continue to work with federal law enforcement to reunite children with their families,” said McLaughlin.
end
Liberation Day 2.0: Trump Terminates Federal Funding For NPR And PBS
Friday, May 02, 2025 – 03:20 PM
Authored by Robert Spencer via PJMedia.com,
On Thursday, President Trump gave Americans another Liberation Day: He signed an executive order ending federal funding for two of the left’s principal propaganda organs, National Public Radio (NPR) and the Public Broadcasting Service (PBS).
Unfortunately, this doesn’t mean that these two vicious taxpayer leeches and leftist disinformation entities will disappear, but at least patriots won’t be forced to shell out for programming that is designed to destroy everything they hold dear.
The left, predictably enough, is howling, led by NPR and PBS themselves. NPR issued a statement warning of imminent apocalypse:
“Eliminating funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting [CPB] would have a devastating impact on American communities across the nation that rely on public radio for trusted local and national news, culture, lifesaving emergency alerts and public safety information.”
The statement was yet another example of what a cruel joke NPR and PBS are on the American people. No one actually trusts NPR and PBS except the indoctrinated cadres of the left and those who are uninformed enough to continue to believe in these propaganda organs’ claims to be free from bias. The grim reality is that NPR and PBS are the left at its most cynical, opportunistic, and parasitical. American taxpayers, including those who are patriots, are forced to subsidize two of the left’s shrillest and most nakedly biased mouthpieces, all the while being gaslit about how it’s their patriotic duty to support a free press.
And so Trump wrote in his executive order that the joke was over:
“Government funding of news media in this environment is not only outdated and unnecessary but corrosive to the appearance of journalistic independence. The CPB Board shall cease direct funding to NPR and PBS, consistent with my Administration’s policy to ensure that Federal funding does not support biased and partisan news coverage. The CPB Board shall cancel existing direct funding to the maximum extent allowed by law and shall decline to provide future funding.”
That bit about “biased and partisan news coverage,” which is putting the reality of NPR and PBS extremely mildly, is eliciting reactions from the left on the order of the kid caught with his hand in the cookie jar insisting that he doesn’t even like cookies.
CNN laments that “America’s two biggest public broadcasters” have “faced a series of attacks from the White House and Republican lawmakers accusing them of biased reporting.”
The New York Times also pretended that Orange Man Bad and his henchmen were making up this whole bias thing, saying that they were “accusing the outlets of producing biased coverage and ‘left-wing propaganda.’” Note the scare quotes around “left-wing propaganda,” as if no reasonable person could believe that such a thing even exists, much less that NPR and PBS ladle it out to patriots as if they were cigarette-puffing meatballs doling out lunchtime glop to a sweaty chain gang.
Unfortunately, even if leftist judges don’t manage once again to arrogate to themselves the power of the executive branch and overrule Trump’s order, NPR and PBS will survive. The New York Post reports that “both have diverse revenue streams, including major foundation grants, advertising and voluntary viewer and listener donations, meaning that neither is likely to cease operations if they lose federal support.”
Still, if Trump succeeds, taxpayers will save a bit of money: “the CPB is set to receive $535 million in congressionally appropriated funds annually to distribute to public broadcasters in 2025 and 2026.”
Trump summed up what’s at stake in his executive order:
“At the very least, Americans have the right to expect that if their tax dollars fund public broadcasting at all, they fund only fair, accurate, unbiased, and nonpartisan news coverage. No media outlet has a constitutional right to taxpayer subsidies, and the Government is entitled to determine which categories of activities to subsidize. The CPB’s governing statute reflects principles of impartiality: the CPB may not ‘contribute to or otherwise support any political party.’”
This is simple common sense, and so Trump’s executive order is long overdue. Both NPR and PBS should have been cut off from federal funding the moment that their news coverage became 100% leftist propaganda, but too many leftist presidents benefited from that coverage to take a step of this kind until now. You can bet that if NPR and PBS reflected 100% patriotic perspectives, Barack Obama or Old Joe Biden or maybe even Bill Clinton would have cut them off long ago.
Better late than never.
end
Stephen Miller Emerges As Frontrunner To Be Trump’s Next National Security Adviser: Report
Friday, May 02, 2025 – 03:40 PM
White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller could land the position as President Donald Trump’s next National Security Adviser, according to Axios.
Miller, one of Trump’s longest and most trusted aides, emerged as a leading contender for national security adviser following Mike Waltz’s removal from the role. Waltz, who has taken considerable heat from the mainstream media for his role in so-called SignalGate, was nominated for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations just hours after reports of his removal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is currently serving as the interim national security adviser.
Axios reports:
One White House source told Axios via text that Miller has made the Homeland Security Council run “like clockwork,” and that it’s “infinitely more effective than the NSC [National Security Council] with a tiny fraction” of the staff.
“Marco and Stephen have worked really closely on immigration and it might be a perfect match,” said another White House source.
It remains uncertain whether Stephen Miller would pursue the national security adviser role, as it could divert him from immigration policy.
Politico also reports that Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy currently spearheading critical negotiations with Russia, Iran, and Hamas, is a contender for the national security adviser position.
Additionally, NSC senior director for counterterrorism Sebastian Gorka and Trump’s special envoy for special missions Richard Grenell are generating buzz as potential candidates for the role.
When Politico asked about the impending announcement, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said, “We will not comment on reports based on anonymous sources.”
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON
USA/ANTISEMITISM//HAMAS// REPORT
KING NEWS
| The King Report May 2, 2025 Issue 7484 | Independent View of the News |
| Gold got hammered on Thursday; bonds declined sharply; stocks soared early and then sank. The NY Fang+ Index zoomed higher on Meta and Microsoft’s good results. ESMs opened sharply higher on Meta and Microsoft’s splendid results. They hit a high of 5662.25 at 6:18 ET. ESMs then stair-stepped lower until they hit a bottom of 5627.25 near 10:00 ET. Rabid buying then pushed ESMs to a daily high of 5682.50 at 11:12 ET. Once again, an ESMs tumble materialized on liquidation for the 11:30 ET European close. ESMs sank to 5631.50 at 12:15 ET, a 51-handle drop. Buyers returned; ESMs stair-stepped up to 5660.25 at 14:45 ET. After a retreat to 5649.50 at 15:10 ET, ESMs jumped to 5665.75 at 15:50 ET. But, there were few organic buyers in the market to start May. Traders had to liquidate to each other. ESMs plunged to a daily low of 5609.00 at 16:02 ET. This is very, very negative action! Anyone paying attention knows the WSJ despises Trump and his populism. In a report that broke late on Wednesday night, the WSJ claimed the Tesla board is looking for a CEO to replace Musk. Tesla says that’s fake news and it told the WSJ it was fake before they published the report. WSJ: Tesla Board Opened Search for a CEO to Succeed Elon Musk With profits and stock price sinking, board members told Musk he needed to spend more time at company https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-musk-ceo-search-board-0ce61af9 @Tesla: Earlier today, there was a media report erroneously claiming that the Tesla Board had contacted recruitment firms to initiate a CEO search at the company. This is absolutely false (and this was communicated to the media before the report was published). The CEO of Tesla is Elon Musk and the Board is highly confident in his ability to continue executing on the exciting growth plan ahead. – Robyn Denholm Musk: It is an EXTREMELY BAD BREACH OF ETHICS that the WSJ would publish a DELIBERATELY FALSE ARTICLE and fail to include an unequivocal denial beforehand by the Tesla board of directors... not all WSJ stories are fake but they are almost all mean-spirited & deceptive. @jenniferzeng97: The situation in Shenzhen was already dire. A massive shopping mall, spanning 1 million square meters (10,763,900 square feet or 247.1 acres), now stands completely deserted. This video was filmed before the US-China trade war began. At the 1:02 mark, the video includes footage of the mall from ten years ago, teeming with crowds… How much longer can the Chinese economy hold up in the U.S.-China trade war?… https://x.com/jenniferzeng97/status/1917937897203785884 A lot of true numbers will shock you and help you understand why the Chinese economy could suffer a sudden “fracture” as early as this year. The only unknown is whether, after the sudden fracture, China can end the social unrest and rebuild order quickly. If this drags on too long, the cost for the Chinese people won’t be solved by just “eating grass” for three years. EU Negotiator: Europe ready to make Trump a €50 bln offer – FT Mercedes ramps up investment in America in wake of Trump’s aggressive auto tariffs Mercedes-Benz plans to begin producing a new vehicle at its plant near Tuscaloosa, Ala., in 2027 https://t.co/IIjgvgfnXX Kimberly-Clark To Invest $2 Bln in US Manufacturing Sites (Over 5 years, add 900 jobs) – WSJ McDonald’s just had its worst quarter since Covid. In the United States, its largest market, same-store sales dropped 3.6% — the chain’s worst drop since 2020… Net income for the first quarter was $1.87 billion, a decline from $1.93 billion compared to the same period a year ago… McDonald’s is also seeing worsening pullback in spending from low-income consumers, which is down nearly double digits versus a year ago… (MCD blames tariff uncertainty, not fast food inflation!) https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/01/investing/mcdonalds-earnings-first-quarter-2025 Positive aspects of previous session Stock soared early on expected start-of-May buying plus Meta and MSFT’s great results. The NY Fang+ Index closed +2.2%. NVDA soared as much as 5.5% on AI chip tariff relief for the UAE. Gold declined sharply because the dollar soared. Negative aspects of previous session ESMs and stocks plunged during the last 10 minutes of trading. NVDA lost half of its 5.5% gain by the close. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Did Amazon’s horrible results leak, and did entities trade on the non-public info? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5620.13 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5658.91; 5597.35 @IranIntl_En: Iran’s foreign minister said on Thursday the decision to postpone the fourth round of talks with the United States was made “together with Omani and US interlocutors… for logistical and technical reasons.” “On Iran’s part, there is no change in our determination to secure a negotiated solution,” Abbas Araghchi said in a post on his X account. “In fact, we are more determined than ever to achieve a just and balanced deal: guaranteeing an end to sanctions and creating confidence that Iran’s nuclear program will forever remain peaceful while ensuring that Iranian rights are fully respected.” The trio European powers were set to meet with Iran on a technical level on Friday ahead of the US-Iran talks in Rome. However, “since that meeting is not taking place, the technical meeting is no longer relevant, at least at that time,” AFP reported citing French FM @jnbarrot . Trump says any country that buys oil (or petrochemicals) from Iran will not be allowed to do business with U.S. https://t.co/QQIe3rpndL @seanmdav: This is a necessary and important step toward bringing Iran to heel, but I cannot wait to see the same people who were melting down over tariffs on China turn around and praise these sanctions, which are just tariffs/embargoes on steroids. After the close, Amazon reported EPS 1.59, 1.36 exp; Sales of $155.7b, $155.16B exp. But sees Q2 operating income of $13.0B to $17.5B, $17.82B expected. AMZN sank as much as 5.4%. The late ESM plunge was most likely the result of someone trading on a leak about Amazon’s results. Apple ESP 1.65, 1.53 consensus; sales $95.4B, $94.6B expected. Apple authorized up to $100B share buyback and boosted its dividend 4% to .26. Apple sank as much a 3% despite its enormous repurchase plan because its China Sales fell 2.3% to $16B; $16.83B exp. Fed Balance Sheet: -$17.653B on MBS of -$12.461B and Notes & Bonds -$4.032B; Reserves: – $37.52B Today – Apple and Amazon ended Fang reporting season on an ugly note. Plus, stocks tend to peak after Apple reports. The S&P 500 Index closed (5604.14) above its 5591 200-day moving average. However, the high for the day was 5658.91 and the index closed less than 13 points above its 50-DMA. With the probability of the S&P 500 Index sinking well below its 200-DMA early today, a close well below that metric will induce traders to believe that the market is rejecting the move above the 50-DMA and the rally from the April 7, 2025, low is OVER. The S&P 500 has rallied for 8 straight sessions. It is extremely overbought. MOST importantly for professional traders, the S&P 500 Index rally from its April 7 low halted yesterday 13 points above 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level and then sank. ESMs sank to -22.25 (5601.00) at 18:07 ET on AMZN & APPL. But ESMs are +22.50; NQMs are +34.00; USMs are -5/32 at 20:45 ET on reports that China is mulling engaging the US in trade talks. There could be manic buying and short covering in early trading on the China trade talk news. The April Employment Report, barring a disaster, should have little impact on trading. The 2nd Hour Indicator should be useful. If euphoric buying appears during early NYSE trading, a breach of the 1st hour low could indicate a trend reversal on exhaustion buying. Expected earnings: DD .95, CI 6.35, XOM 1.75, CVX2.10 Expected econ data: Apr NFP 135k, Mfg. -5k, Rate 4.2%, Labor Participation Rate 62.5%, Wages 0.3% m/m & 3.9% y/y, Workweek 34.2; March Factory Orders 4.5% m/m, Ex-Trans 0.3%; March Durable Goods 9.2% m/m, Ex-Trans 0.0%, Nondef Ex-Air 0.1%, Shipments 0.3% S&P Index 50-day MA: 5591; 100-day MA: 5801; 150-day MA: 5820; 200-day MA: 5746 DJIA 50-day MA: 41,346; 100-day MA: 42,548; 150-day MA: 42,732; 200-day MA: 42,220 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5604.14 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5447.29 triggers a buy signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5987.57 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 5645.69 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5520.75 triggers a sell signal National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and his deputy Alex Wong have resigned due to the Signal chat fiasco. Waltz was a controversial hire. He is a reportedly a NeoCon war hawk, particularly against Iran. Waltz and/or one of his aides added The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg to a Signal chat that included discussions with top national security officials about plans for a military strike on Houthi targets in Yemen. ‘They’ claim it was an ‘inadvertent’ add. DJT nominated Waltz to be UN Secretary, and appointed Secretary of State Rubio to be his interim National Security Advisor. @CurtMills: The Waltz ejection was nigh inevitable— Signalgate was open, opera bouffe incompetence (and then he baldly lied about it). But the apparent sacking of Alex Wong, an arch-hawk former Cotton and Romney staffer, signals a wider *ideological* reshuffle, as well. Rubio reveals obscure Biden administration office kept ‘disinformation’ dossier on Trump official “We had an office in the Department of State whose job it was to censor Americans,” Rubio said during Wednesday’s Cabinet meeting with President Donald Trump. “And, by the way, I’m not going to say who it is. I’ll leave it up to them. There’s at least one person at this table today who had a dossier in that building of social media posts to identify them as purveyors of disinformation. We have these dossiers. We are going to be turning those over to these individuals.”… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rubio-reveals-obscure-office-under-biden-kept-disinformation-dossier-trump-official @julie_kelly2: Emails obtained by Sen Grassley demonstrate the collusion between Biden DOJ, DC US Attorney Matt Graves, and Washington FBI to pursue an indictment and schedule the arrest of Peter Navarro in 2022. “After consultation with main Justice.” And I believe ‘Molly” is Molly Gaston, who was assigned to Special Counsel Jack Smith’s team a few months later to handle the J6 case against Pres Trump. Grassley is now asking AG Bondi and FBI Director Kash Patel for all comms “between or among all DOJ and FBI personnel related to the contempt of Congress cases.” https://x.com/julie_kelly2/status/1917994075011334430 @paulsperry_: Senate Judiciary Chair Grassley maintains that by opening the secret investigation codenamed “Arctic Frost” targeting Trump, FBI official Tim Thibault violated the FBI’s “No Self-Approval Rule” against supervisors creating a criminal case, then approving that case themselves SEN. GRASSLEY: “All those alleged layers of review [of the Arctic Frost investigation of Trump] on the 7th Floor of the FBI building turned out to be the Democratic National Committee’s echo chamber. FBI official Tim Thibault and other FBI officials celebrated the indictment and arrest of White House trade policy official Peter Navarro for contempt of Congress charges in 2022, according to newly released internal FBI emails. https://www.grassley.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/grassley_to_doj_fbi_-_peter_navarro_contempt_of_congress.pdf @LauraLoomer: The husband of California U.S. District Court Judge Jennifer L. Thurston, the judge who just ruled that President Trump’s administration can’t arrest any more illegal aliens unless they have a warrant for their arrest, is a multifamily real estate broker in California who caters to the illegal alien and immigrant community, and makes Instagram videos about how Donald Trump’s mass deportations and immigration policies are bad for multifamily real estate brokers and investors… https://x.com/LauraLoomer/status/1917811081818378497 @julie_kelly2: Just a reminder that GOP @SenThomTillis voted to confirm both Merrick Garland and Lisa Monaco to lead Biden’s DOJ. Now he wants to sink the confirmation of acting DC US attorney Ed Martin, who is investigating corruption at that office under Garland/Monaco leadership. @nicksortor: DOGE uncovered a MASSIVE arsenal of weapons and payments to the TALIBAN in the US Institute of Peace. ELON: “They even deleted a VAST amount of financial information. That’s the definition of a coverup.” They’ve now been referred to the DBI & DOJ. https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1918098098297160118 Recent polls on Trump have huge divergence. Some show him gaining approval while the usual regime media polls show him in the toilet. @CarmineSabia: Same Presser: Schumer: “Trump has the lowest 100-day approval rating since they started polling.” 2 Minutes later. Manu Raju: “There’s a poll out today that has your approval rating lower than any other Congressional leader at 17 percent.” Schumer: “Polls come and go.” https://t.co/aMNc0Su667 Karoline Leavitt’s brutal troll of Kamala Harris after cringe viral videos and strange anti-Trump speech sends internet ablaze – ‘I think I speak for everyone at the White House. We encourage Kamala Harris to continue going out and doing speaking engagements,’ Leavitt said… Harris also practiced some moves with 2RawTooReal’s Kenny Walden as he taught her the ‘Boots on the Ground’ dance and clacked a rainbow colored fan… (More cringe & conjecture to what she was on) https://t.co/05zo3YGKVJ @Bubblebathgirl: Kamala Harris is acting more angry than usual. She’s still saying nothing and vomiting her word salad. The audience barely claps. That’s what happens when she can no longer pay to bus people in to pretend to support her. https://t.co/fbYjUitBnt @AmericaPapaBear: The Democrat ‘resistance’ is 100% fake. They stage these protests by bussing in paid actors. How pathetic. https://t.co/vxIRn2pPM9 @MylesMorell: Today I tried to ask @Ilhan a question on behalf of the @DailyCaller News Foundation and she told me to “F**k off” twice. That was very unprofessional of her. Our elected officials should not be acting this way. https://t.co/8wPu566ZTt (Why are female Dems pols so profane?) @BreannaMorello: DHS knowingly released convicted sex offenders into the US under the Biden regime’s leadership. The agency required sex offenders to register for a “sexual deviancy counseling program” and to register as a sex offender within a specific time frame. These forms were to be filled out before their release. This information was ONLY obtained after I sued TSA for failing to comply with my FOIA request. The Biden regime lied and said these documents did not exist, but the Trump administration has since turned them over. https://x.com/BreannaMorello/status/1917949098956624175 @GuntherEagleman: We know why Fauci requested a preemptive pardon! The biolabs in Ukraine are REAL! Tulsi Gabbard: “We are working with Jay Bhattacharya, the new NIH director on this, as well as Secretary Kennedy is looking at the gain of function research that in the case of the Wuhan Lab, as well as many others.” “Many of these other biolabs around the world were actually US-funded… “It’s because this gain-of-function research is happening in biolabs around the world. That by the way is still on the US Embassy Ukraine’s website today about how the US has funded these biolabs.” “US -funded bio labs in Ukraine when the Russia-Ukraine war kicked off for this very reason. Who knows what kinds of pathogens are in these labs and if released could create another Covid like pandemic. And for that I was called a Russian asset. You’re, you know, trumpeting Putin’s talking points.” “All of this nonsense simply for speaking the truth and stating facts. That by the way are still on US Embassy Ukraine’s website today about how the US has funded these biolabs in Ukraine.” https://x.com/GuntherEagleman/status/1917961395238309903 Epstein Victim Virginia Giuffre’s father insists she didn’t die by suicide: ‘Somebody got to her’ https://t.co/OS9TOzncul @realchrisrufo: According to Harvard’s new antisemitism report, language instructor Sunn m’Cheaux delivered a keynote ranting against the “Zionist overlords” and Israeli “apartheid state” at the university’s racially segregated graduation ceremony for black students… sick. https://t.co/tltCIJ4fFo Israeli police arrest 18 arson suspects after wildfires spread near Jerusalem https://justthenews.com/world/middle-east/israeli-police-arrest-18-arson-suspects-after-wildfires-spread-near-jerusalem | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
US House Passes Resolution To Stop California From Banning Gas-Powered Cars
Thursday, May 01, 2025 – 06:25 PM
The U.S. House of Representatives passed (245-164) Rep. John Joyce’s (R-PA) H.J. Res.88, a resolution blocking the Biden Environmental Protection Agency’s waiver that would let California ban petrol-powered cars and trucks and force dystopian electric vehicle mandates nationwide.
H.J. Res. 88 seeks to overturn a Biden-era EPA decision that granted California a waiver to ban the sale of new petrol-powered vehicles by 2035. This mandate would’ve had massive ripples far beyond the progressive state’s borders, forcing automakers to comply nationwide with EV mandates, thus leading to a surge in driving costs for all working families. Without intervention, California’s toxic climate policy could effectively dictate EV mandates nationwide.
“Today, the House passed RepJohnJoyce’s H.J.Res.88 to reverse a Biden-era regulation that requires all of the vehicles in America to be emission-free,” House Republicans wrote on X, adding this repeal would be some of the first steps in “reversing Biden’s disastrous EV mandates and giving power back to consumers to decide which cars they want to drive.”
As of May, eleven U.S. states have adopted California’s plan to phase out the sale of gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles. These states include New York, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington, Vermont, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia. Together, these states account for about 40% of the U.S. auto market.
“Proud to see my bill to protect consumer choice in the automobile market pass the House in a bipartisan fashion,” Rep. Joyce wrote on X.
The Republican representative from Pennsylvania noted, “Congress cannot allow California to set national policy. I urge my Senate colleagues to pass this legislation so @POTUS can protect the freedom of the open road for the American people.”
Dismantling California’s EV mandates is a top priority for President Trump. This week, the Western world was served a sobering reminder of the consequences tied to the aggressive march toward net zero death:
Action on the measure now moves to the Senate.
END
Unearthed Emails Confirm Biden Admin’s Heavy Hand In Navarro Prosecution
Friday, May 02, 2025 – 10:20 AM
Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,
Newly unearthed emails confirm what the Biden administration had repeatedly denied: It was heavily involved in the 2022 prosecution of Trump trade counselor Peter Navarro…
The emails, released Thursday and obtained by Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, showed that the DOJ approved then-U.S. Attorney Matt Graves’s decision to indict Navarro on two contempt of Congress charges, despite the left and legacy media’s claims of independence.
Navarro, one of the top officials in the first Trump White House, had challenged the Jan. 6 Committee’s overreach by invoking executive privilege in refusing to comply with their subpoenas.
It appears the Biden DOJ wanted to make an example of Navarro.
In one email dated May 19, 2022—just days before Navarro was indicted—FBI Special Agent Walter Giardina wrote to fellow agents about instructions from the U.S. attorney for D.C., after the latter’s consultation “with main Justice.”
The email read, “I just spoke with DC USAO, after consultation with main Justice, they are not intending to prosecute Meadows or Scavino. This decision is based on their White House positions and prior DOJ opinions. .. We have been told to cease work on those case. [sic]”
Signaling the government’s intent to go after Navarro, the email continued, “They would like to charge Navarro in the next two weeks however.”
Giardina then ordered agents to “locate” Navarro, obtain a subpoena return from Verizon, issue a preservation letter to Apple, prepare a search warrant for his phone and iCloud account, conduct a “knock and talk interview” and serve a phone search warrant after the interview.
The emails highlight the harrowing treatment of Navarro, who served as director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy from 2017 to 2021.
He became the subject of a federal investigation under the Biden administration after he argued that his role in the battle for election integrity after the 2020 election was protected by executive privilege and was not subject to congressional subpoenas.
A grand jury returned the indictment in 2022. He was convicted two years later and sentenced to four months in prison—a sentence he called a “death sentence” at age 75.
Navarro is currently appealing his conviction in federal court.
Trump appointed Navarro as his senior counselor for trade and manufacturing after the 2024 presidential election.
GREG HUNTER
harveyorganblog.com 
